"... a friend of mine, born in Venice and a long-time resident of Rome, pointed out to me that dogs are a sign of loneliness. ..."
"... And the cafes and restaurants on weekends in Chicago–chockfull of people, each on his or her own Powerbook, surfing the WWW all by themselves. ..."
"... The preaching of self-reliance by those who have never had to practice it is galling. ..."
"... Katherine: Agreed. It is also one of the reasons why I am skeptical of various evangelical / fundi pastors, who are living at the expense of their churches, preaching about individual salvation. ..."
"... So you have the upper crust (often with inheritances and trust funds) preaching economic self-reliances, and you have divines preaching individual salvation as they go back to the house provided by the members of the church. ..."
George Monbiot on human loneliness and its toll. I agree with his observations. I have been cataloguing them in my head for
years, especially after a friend of mine, born in Venice and a long-time resident of Rome, pointed out to me that dogs are
a sign of loneliness.
A couple of recent trips to Rome have made that point ever more obvious to me: Compared to my North Side neighborhood in Chicago,
where every other person seems to have a dog, and on weekends Clark Street is awash in dogs (on their way to the dog boutiques
and the dog food truck), Rome has few dogs. Rome is much more densely populated, and the Italians still have each other, for good
or for ill. And Americans use the dog as an odd means of making human contact, at least with other dog owners.
But Americanization advances: I was surprised to see people bring dogs into the dining room of a fairly upscale restaurant
in Turin. I haven't seen that before. (Most Italian cafes and restaurants are just too small to accommodate a dog, and the owners
don't have much patience for disruptions.) The dogs barked at each other for while–violating a cardinal rule in Italy that mealtime
is sacred and tranquil. Loneliness rules.
And the cafes and restaurants on weekends in Chicago–chockfull of people, each on his or her own Powerbook, surfing the
WWW all by themselves.
That's why the comments about March on Everywhere in Harper's, recommended by Lambert, fascinated me. Maybe, to be less lonely,
you just have to attend the occasional march, no matter how disorganized (and the Chicago Women's March organizers made a few
big logistical mistakes), no matter how incoherent. Safety in numbers? (And as Monbiot points out, overeating at home alone is
a sign of loneliness: Another argument for a walk with a placard.)
In Britain, men who have spent their entire lives in quadrangles – at school, at college, at the bar, in parliament – instruct
us to stand on our own two feet.
With different imagery, the same is true in this country. The preaching of self-reliance by those who have never had to
practice it is galling.
Katherine: Agreed. It is also one of the reasons why I am skeptical of various evangelical / fundi pastors, who are living
at the expense of their churches, preaching about individual salvation.
So you have the upper crust (often with inheritances and trust funds) preaching economic self-reliances, and you have divines
preaching individual salvation as they go back to the house provided by the members of the church.
Why would you object to government creating more demand for labor? Over time, wages will rise and higher wages will fund more
demand for labor produced goods.
Adj. 1. dilettantish - showing frivolous or superficial interest; amateurish; "his dilettantish efforts at painting" -- superficial
- concerned with or comprehending only what is apparent or obvious; not deep or penetrating emotionally or intellectually; "superficial
similarities"; "a superficial mind"; "his thinking was superficial and fuzzy"; "superficial knowledge"; "the superficial report didn't
give the true picture"; "only superficial differences"
Notable quotes:
"... A dilettante is a person who cultivates an area of interest, such as the arts, without real commitment or knowledge. The Dilettante Doctrine takes modern macro's arrogance to a new pinnacle. Only their model is legitimate, and it is illegitimate to criticize their DSGE models, even though they repeatedly fail. Instead, we must all "like" their models. We cannot make any statements about macroeconomics unless we "like [DSGE] models." The Dilettante Doctrine is a sure-fire means of winning academic disputes. You demand that your critics endorse your views, or you dismiss them as dilettantes unworthy of respect. ..."
"... Readers may recall that the scientific method works in the opposite direction of the Dilettante Doctrine. Modern macro proposes a theory (DSGE) and tests its predictive ability. The DSGE models fail recurrently, on the most important macro events, and the failures are massive. The scientific method requires the theorist of the failed model to declare it falsified. Economists who "like" repeatedly falsified DSGE models are, as Paul Romer famously declared, engaged in "pseudoscience." ..."
"... There has not been a big mea-culpa from neoliberal economists after the 2008 Financial Crisis. I don't think there will be. Many are essentially the equal of religious fundamentalists. ..."
"... Personally I believe economic as practiced is an example of telling the boss (the King) what they want to hear. Economist appear descended form a long line of Court Magicians, telling the futures from the entrails of an animal, consulting the spirits for guidance, or using a Chrystal ball. Of more pointedly Bullshit, baffles brains. ..."
"... A simple view of women's fashions (high heels) with regard to comfort or safety would demolish any theory of people as "rational actors." Or men's behavior over their "sports teams." ..."
A dilettante is a person who cultivates an area of interest, such as the arts, without real commitment or knowledge. The Dilettante
Doctrine takes modern macro's arrogance to a new pinnacle. Only their model is legitimate, and it is illegitimate to criticize their
DSGE models, even though they repeatedly fail. Instead, we must all "like" their models. We cannot make any statements about macroeconomics
unless we "like [DSGE] models." The Dilettante Doctrine is a sure-fire means of winning academic disputes. You demand that your critics
endorse your views, or you dismiss them as dilettantes unworthy of respect.
Readers may recall that the scientific method works in the opposite direction of the Dilettante Doctrine. Modern macro proposes
a theory (DSGE) and tests its predictive ability. The DSGE models fail recurrently, on the most important macro events, and the failures
are massive. The scientific method requires the theorist of the failed model to declare it falsified. Economists who "like" repeatedly
falsified DSGE models are, as Paul Romer famously declared, engaged in "pseudoscience."
Athreya then inadvertently compounded modern macro's failures by putting in writing a bit too many of modern macro's darker secrets
in his 2013
book about macroeconomics. Athreya confirmed many of the most fundamental criticisms of modern macro devotees, revealed additional
failures that were even more devastating, and illustrated perfectly the blindness of modern macro's devotees to their dogmas and
logic. Athreya did recognize clearly one dogma that made modern macro devotees unable to spot even the world's largest bubble – but
treated that failure as if it were a virtue. Modern macro devotees train macroeconomists to be unable to identify warn against, or
take action to end even the most destructive bubbles. This is like training surgeons to believe that shock cannot occur and they
should ignore shock in treating patients.
There has not been a big mea-culpa from neoliberal economists after the 2008 Financial Crisis. I don't think there will
be. Many are essentially the equal of religious fundamentalists.
However, we should also remember that the very wealthy have backed the neoliberal economists against the general public. Neolibe3ralism
provides a pseudoscientific economic excuse for what amounts to turning society into a plutocracy, which is precisely what the
rich want.
Personally I believe economic as practiced is an example of telling the boss (the King) what they want to hear. Economist
appear descended form a long line of Court Magicians, telling the futures from the entrails of an animal, consulting the spirits
for guidance, or using a Chrystal ball. Of more pointedly Bullshit, baffles brains.
Prof Black make the point that he DSGE models assume away fraud. They also assume people are "rational actors, driven only
by logic," that is: we are all Vulcans from Star Trek.
A simple view of women's fashions (high heels) with regard to comfort or safety would demolish any theory of people as
"rational actors." Or men's behavior over their "sports teams."
To assume away human behavior and emotion, and thus chaos or catastrophe theory, would put economists at odds with their masters,
and cut their income, by the nearly always fatal, or career limiting "telling truth to power."
It's interesting to speculate what would be the scope or size of common ground in a dialog between anthropologists and economists.
Null set perhaps?
Petras did not mention that it was Carter who started neoliberalization of the USA. The subsequent election of Reagan signified
the victory of neoliberalism in this country or "quite coup". The death of New Deal from this point was just a matter
of time. Labor relations drastically changes and war on union and atomization of workforce are a norm.
Welfare state still exists but only for corporation and MIC. Otherwise the New Deal society is almost completely dismanted.
It is true that "The ' New Deal' was, at best, a de facto ' historical compromise' between the capitalist class
and the labor unions, mediated by the Democratic Party elite. It was a temporary pact in which the unions secured legal recognition
while the capitalists retained their executive prerogatives." But the key factor in this compromise was the existence of the USSR as
a threat to the power of capitalists in the USA. when the USSR disappeared cannibalistic instincts of the US elite prevailed over caution.
Notable quotes:
"... The earlier welfare 'reforms' and the current anti-welfare legislation and austerity practices have been accompanied by a series of endless imperial wars, especially in the Middle East. ..."
"... In the 1940's through the 1960's, world and regional wars (Korea and Indo-China) were combined with significant welfare program – a form of ' social imperialism' , which 'buy off' the working class while expanding the empire. However, recent decades are characterized by multiple regional wars and the reduction or elimination of welfare programs – and a massive growth in poverty, domestic insecurity and poor health. ..."
"... modern welfare state' ..."
"... Labor unions were organized as working class strikes and progressive legislation facilitated trade union organization, elections, collective bargaining rights and a steady increase in union membership. Improved work conditions, rising wages, pension plans and benefits, employer or union-provided health care and protective legislation improved the standard of living for the working class and provided for 2 generations of upward mobility. ..."
"... Social Security legislation was approved along with workers' compensation and the forty-hour workweek. Jobs were created through federal programs (WPA, CCC, etc.). Protectionist legislation facilitated the growth of domestic markets for US manufacturers. Workplace shop steward councils organized 'on the spot' job action to protect safe working conditions. ..."
"... World War II led to full employment and increases in union membership, as well as legislation restricting workers' collective bargaining rights and enforcing wage freezes. Hundreds of thousands of Americans found jobs in the war economy but a huge number were also killed or wounded in the war. ..."
"... So-called ' right to work' ..."
"... Trade union officials signed pacts with capital: higher pay for the workers and greater control of the workplace for the bosses. Trade union officials joined management in repressing rank and file movements seeking to control technological changes by reducing hours (" thirty hours work for forty hours pay ..."
"... Trade union activists, community organizers for rent control and other grassroots movements lost both the capacity and the will to advance toward large-scale structural changes of US capitalism. Living standards improved for a few decades but the capitalist class consolidated strategic control over labor relations. While unionized workers' incomes, increased, inequalities, especially in the non-union sectors began to grow. With the end of the GI bill, veterans' access to high-quality subsidized education declined ..."
"... With the election of President Carter, social welfare in the US began its long decline. The next series of regional wars were accompanied by even greater attacks on welfare via the " Volker Plan " – freezing workers' wages as a means to combat inflation. ..."
"... Guns without butter' became the legislative policy of the Carter and Reagan Administrations. The welfare programs were based on politically fragile foundations. ..."
"... The anti-labor offensive from the ' Oval Office' intensified under President Reagan with his direct intervention firing tens of thousands of striking air controllers and arresting union leaders. Under Presidents Carter, Reagan, George H.W. Bush and William Clinton cost of living adjustments failed to keep up with prices of vital goods and services. Health care inflation was astronomical. Financial deregulation led to the subordination of American industry to finance and the Wall Street banks. De-industrialization, capital flight and massive tax evasion reduced labor's share of national income. ..."
"... The capitalist class followed a trajectory of decline, recovery and ascendance. Moreover, during the earlier world depression, at the height of labor mobilization and organization, the capitalist class never faced any significant political threat over its control of the commanding heights of the economy ..."
"... Hand in bloody glove' with the US Empire, the American trade unions planted the seeds of their own destruction at home. The local capitalists in newly emerging independent nations established industries and supply chains in cooperation with US manufacturers. Attracted to these sources of low-wage, violently repressed workers, US capitalists subsequently relocated their factories overseas and turned their backs on labor at home. ..."
"... President 'Bill' Clinton ravaged Russia, Yugoslavia, Iraq and Somalia and liberated Wall Street. His regime gave birth to the prototype billionaire swindlers: Michael Milken and Bernard 'Bernie' Madoff. ..."
"... Clinton converted welfare into cheap labor 'workfare', exploiting the poorest and most vulnerable and condemning the next generations to grinding poverty. Under Clinton the prison population of mostly African Americans expanded and the breakup of families ravaged the urban communities. ..."
"... President Obama transferred 2 trillion dollars to the ten biggest bankers and swindlers on Wall Street, and another trillion to the Pentagon to pursue the Democrats version of foreign policy: from Bush's two overseas wars to Obama's seven. ..."
"... Obama was elected to two terms. His liberal Democratic Party supporters swooned over his peace and justice rhetoric while swallowing his militarist escalation into seven overseas wars as well as the foreclosure of two million American householders. Obama completely failed to honor his campaign promise to reduce wage inequality between black and white wage earners while he continued to moralize to black families about ' values' . ..."
"... Obama's war against Libya led to the killing and displacement of millions of black Libyans and workers from Sub-Saharan Africa. The smiling Nobel Peace Prize President created more desperate refugees than any previous US head of state – including millions of Africans flooding Europe. ..."
"... Forty-years of anti welfare legislation and pro-business regimes paved the golden road for the election of Donald Trump ..."
"... Trump and the Republicans are focusing on the tattered remnants of the social welfare system: Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security. The remains of FDR's New Deal and LBJ's Great Society -- are on the chopping block. ..."
"... The moribund (but well-paid) labor leadership has been notable by its absence in the ensuing collapse of the social welfare state. The liberal left Democrats embraced the platitudinous Obama/Clinton team as the 'Great Society's' gravediggers, while wailing at Trump's allies for shoving the corpse of welfare state into its grave. ..."
"... Over the past forty years the working class and the rump of what was once referred to as the ' labor movement' has contributed to the dismantling of the social welfare state, voting for ' strike-breaker' Reagan, ' workfare' Clinton, ' Wall Street crash' Bush, ' Wall Street savior' Obama and ' Trickle-down' Trump. ..."
"... Gone are the days when social welfare and profitable wars raised US living standards and transformed American trade unions into an appendage of the Democratic Party and a handmaiden of Empire. The Democratic Party rescued capitalism from its collapse in the Great Depression, incorporated labor into the war economy and the post- colonial global empire, and resurrected Wall Street from the 'Great Financial Meltdown' of the 21 st century. ..."
"... The war economy no longer fuels social welfare. The military-industrial complex has found new partners on Wall Street and among the globalized multi-national corporations. Profits rise while wages fall. Low paying compulsive labor (workfare) lopped off state transfers to the poor. Technology – IT, robotics, artificial intelligence and electronic gadgets – has created the most class polarized social system in history ..."
"... "The collaboration of liberals and unions in promoting endless wars opened the door to Trump's mirage of a stateless, tax-less, ruling class." ..."
"... Corporations [now] are welfare recipients and the bigger they are, the more handouts they suck up ..."
"... Corporations not only continuously seek monopolies (with the aid and sanction of the state) but they steadily fine tune the welfare state for their benefit. In fact, in reality, welfare for prols and peasants wouldn't exist if it didn't act as a money conduit and ultimate profit center for the big money grubbers. ..."
"... The article is dismal reading, and evidence of the failings of the "unregulated" society, where the anything goes as long as you are wealthy. ..."
"... Like the Pentagon. Americans still don't readily call this welfare, but they will eventually. Defense profiteers are unions in a sense, you're either in their club Or you're in the service industry that surrounds it. ..."
The American welfare state was created in 1935 and continued to develop through 1973. Since then, over a prolonged period, the
capitalist class has been steadily dismantling the entire welfare state.
Between the mid 1970's to the present (2017) labor laws, welfare rights and benefits and the construction of and subsidies for
affordable housing have been gutted. ' Workfare' (under President 'Bill' Clinton) ended welfare for the poor and displaced
workers. Meanwhile the shift to regressive taxation and the steadily declining real wages have increased corporate profits to an
astronomical degree.
What started as incremental reversals during the 1990's under Clinton has snowballed over the last two decades decimating welfare
legislation and institutions.
The earlier welfare 'reforms' and the current anti-welfare legislation and austerity practices have been accompanied by a
series of endless imperial wars, especially in the Middle East.
In the 1940's through the 1960's, world and regional wars (Korea and Indo-China) were combined with significant welfare program
– a form of ' social imperialism' , which 'buy off' the working class while expanding the empire. However, recent decades are characterized
by multiple regional wars and the reduction or elimination of welfare programs – and a massive growth in poverty, domestic insecurity
and poor health.
New Deals and Big Wars
The 1930's witnessed the advent of social legislation and action, which laid the foundations of what is called the ' modern
welfare state' .
Labor unions were organized as working class strikes and progressive legislation facilitated trade union organization, elections,
collective bargaining rights and a steady increase in union membership. Improved work conditions, rising wages, pension plans and
benefits, employer or union-provided health care and protective legislation improved the standard of living for the working class
and provided for 2 generations of upward mobility.
Social Security legislation was approved along with workers' compensation and the forty-hour workweek. Jobs were created through
federal programs (WPA, CCC, etc.). Protectionist legislation facilitated the growth of domestic markets for US manufacturers. Workplace
shop steward councils organized 'on the spot' job action to protect safe working conditions.
World War II led to full employment and increases in union membership, as well as legislation restricting workers' collective
bargaining rights and enforcing wage freezes. Hundreds of thousands of Americans found jobs in the war economy but a huge number
were also killed or wounded in the war.
The post-war period witnessed a contradictory process: wages and salaries increased while legislation curtailed union rights via
the Taft Hartley Act and the McCarthyist purge of leftwing trade union activists. So-called ' right to work' laws effectively
outlawed unionization mostly in southern states, which drove industries to relocate to the anti-union states.
Welfare reforms, in the form of the GI bill, provided educational opportunities for working class and rural veterans, while federal-subsidized
low interest mortgages encourage home-ownership, especially for veterans.
The New Deal created concrete improvements but did not consolidate labor influence at any level. Capitalists and management still
retained control over capital, the workplace and plant location of production.
Trade union officials signed pacts with capital: higher pay for the workers and greater control of the workplace for the bosses.
Trade union officials joined management in repressing rank and file movements seeking to control technological changes by reducing
hours (" thirty hours work for forty hours pay "). Dissident local unions were seized and gutted by the trade union bosses
– sometimes through violence.
Trade union activists, community organizers for rent control and other grassroots movements lost both the capacity and the
will to advance toward large-scale structural changes of US capitalism. Living standards improved for a few decades but the capitalist
class consolidated strategic control over labor relations. While unionized workers' incomes, increased, inequalities, especially
in the non-union sectors began to grow. With the end of the GI bill, veterans' access to high-quality subsidized education declined.
While a new wave of social welfare legislation and programs began in the 1960's and early 1970's it was no longer a result of
a mass trade union or workers' "class struggle". Moreover, trade union collaboration with the capitalist regional war policies led
to the killing and maiming of hundreds of thousands of workers in two wars – the Korean and Vietnamese wars.
Much of social legislation resulted from the civil and welfare rights movements. While specific programs were helpful, none of
them addressed structural racism and poverty.
The Last Wave of Social Welfarism
The 1960'a witnessed the greatest racial war in modern US history: Mass movements in the South and North rocked state and federal
governments, while advancing the cause of civil, social and political rights. Millions of black citizens, joined by white activists
and, in many cases, led by African American Viet Nam War veterans, confronted the state. At the same time, millions of students and
young workers, threatened by military conscription, challenged the military and social order.
Energized by mass movements, a new wave of social welfare legislation was launched by the federal government to pacify mass opposition
among blacks, students, community organizers and middle class Americans. Despite this mass popular movement, the union bosses at
the AFL-CIO openly supported the war, police repression and the military, or at best, were passive impotent spectators of the drama
unfolding in the nation's streets. Dissident union members and activists were the exception, as many had multiple identities to represent:
African American, Hispanic, draft resisters, etc.
Under Presidents Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon, Medicare, Medicaid, OSHA, the EPA and multiple poverty programs were implemented.
A national health program, expanding Medicare for all Americans, was introduced by President Nixon and sabotaged by the Kennedy Democrats
and the AFL-CIO. Overall, social and economic inequalities diminished during this period.
The Vietnam War ended in defeat for the American militarist empire. This coincided with the beginning of the end of social welfare
as we knew it – as the bill for militarism placed even greater demands on the public treasury.
With the election of President Carter, social welfare in the US began its long decline. The next series of regional wars were
accompanied by even greater attacks on welfare via the " Volker Plan " – freezing workers' wages as a means to combat inflation.
Guns without butter' became the legislative policy of the Carter and Reagan Administrations. The welfare programs were based
on politically fragile foundations.
The Debacle of Welfarism
Private sector trade union membership declined from a post-world war peak of 30% falling to 12% in the 1990's. Today it has sunk
to 7%. Capitalists embarked on a massive program of closing thousands of factories in the unionized North which were then relocated
to the non-unionized low wage southern states and then overseas to Mexico and Asia. Millions of stable jobs disappeared.
Following the election of 'Jimmy Carter', neither Democratic nor Republican Presidents felt any need to support labor organizations.
On the contrary, they facilitated contracts dictated by management, which reduced wages, job security, benefits and social welfare.
The anti-labor offensive from the ' Oval Office' intensified under President Reagan with his direct intervention
firing tens of thousands of striking air controllers and arresting union leaders. Under Presidents Carter, Reagan, George H.W. Bush
and William Clinton cost of living adjustments failed to keep up with prices of vital goods and services. Health care inflation was
astronomical. Financial deregulation led to the subordination of American industry to finance and the Wall Street banks. De-industrialization,
capital flight and massive tax evasion reduced labor's share of national income.
The capitalist class followed a trajectory of decline, recovery and ascendance. Moreover, during the earlier world depression,
at the height of labor mobilization and organization, the capitalist class never faced any significant political threat over its
control of the commanding heights of the economy.
The ' New Deal' was, at best, a de facto ' historical compromise' between the capitalist class and the labor
unions, mediated by the Democratic Party elite. It was a temporary pact in which the unions secured legal recognition while the capitalists
retained their executive prerogatives.
The Second World War secured the economic recovery for capital and subordinated labor through a federally mandated no strike
production agreement. There were a few notable exceptions: The coal miners' union organized strikes in strategic sectors and some
leftist leaders and organizers encouraged slow-downs, work to rule and other in-plant actions when employers ran roughshod with special
brutality over the workers. The recovery of capital was the prelude to a post-war offensive against independent labor-based political
organizations. The quality of labor organization declined even as the quantity of trade union membership increased.
Labor union officials consolidated internal control in collaboration with the capitalist elite. Capitalist class-labor official
collaboration was extended overseas with strategic consequences.
The post-war corporate alliance between the state and capital led to a global offensive – the replacement of European-Japanese
colonial control and exploitation by US business and bankers. Imperialism was later 're-branded' as ' globalization' . It
pried open markets, secured cheap docile labor and pillaged resources for US manufacturers and importers.
US labor unions played a major role by sabotaging militant unions abroad in cooperation with the US security apparatus: They worked
to coopt and bribe nationalist and leftist labor leaders and supported police-state regime repression and assassination of recalcitrant
militants.
' Hand in bloody glove' with the US Empire, the American trade unions planted the seeds of their own destruction at home.
The local capitalists in newly emerging independent nations established industries and supply chains in cooperation with US manufacturers.
Attracted to these sources of low-wage, violently repressed workers, US capitalists subsequently relocated their factories overseas
and turned their backs on labor at home.
Labor union officials had laid the groundwork for the demise of stable jobs and social benefits for American workers. Their collaboration
increased the rate of capitalist profit and overall power in the political system. Their complicity in the brutal purges of militants,
activists and leftist union members and leaders at home and abroad put an end to labor's capacity to sustain and expand the welfare
state.
Trade unions in the US did not use their collaboration with empire in its bloody regional wars to win social benefits for the
rank and file workers. The time of social-imperialism, where workers within the empire benefited from imperialism's pillage, was
over. Gains in social welfare henceforth could result only from mass struggles led by the urban poor, especially Afro-Americans,
community-based working poor and militant youth organizers.
The last significant social welfare reforms were implemented in the early 1970's – coinciding with the end of the Vietnam War
(and victory for the Vietnamese people) and ended with the absorption of the urban and anti-war movements into the Democratic Party.
Henceforward the US corporate state advanced through the overseas expansion of the multi-national corporations and via large-scale,
non-unionized production at home.
The technological changes of this period did not benefit labor. The belief, common in the 1950's, that science and technology
would increase leisure, decrease work and improve living standards for the working class, was shattered. Instead technological changes
displaced well-paid industrial labor while increasing the number of mind-numbing, poorly paid, and politically impotent jobs in the
so-called 'service sector' – a rapidly growing section of unorganized and vulnerable workers – especially including women and minorities.
Labor union membership declined precipitously. The demise of the USSR and China's turn to capitalism had a dual effect: It eliminated
collectivist (socialist) pressure for social welfare and opened their labor markets with cheap, disciplined workers for foreign manufacturers.
Labor as a political force disappeared on every count. The US Federal Reserve and President 'Bill' Clinton deregulated financial
capital leading to a frenzy of speculation. Congress wrote laws, which permitted overseas tax evasion – especially in Caribbean tax
havens. Regional free-trade agreements, like NAFTA, spurred the relocation of jobs abroad. De-industrialization accompanied the decline
of wages, living standards and social benefits for millions of American workers.
The New Abolitionists: Trillionaires
The New Deal, the Great Society, trade unions, and the anti-war and urban movements were in retreat and primed for abolition.
Wars without welfare (or guns without butter) replaced earlier 'social imperialism' with a huge growth of poverty and homelessness.
Domestic labor was now exploited to finance overseas wars not vice versa. The fruits of imperial plunder were not shared.
As the working and middle classes drifted downward, they were used up, abandoned and deceived on all sides – especially by the
Democratic Party. They elected militarists and demagogues as their new presidents.
President 'Bill' Clinton ravaged Russia, Yugoslavia, Iraq and Somalia and liberated Wall Street. His regime gave birth to the
prototype billionaire swindlers: Michael Milken and Bernard 'Bernie' Madoff.
Clinton converted welfare into cheap labor 'workfare', exploiting the poorest and most vulnerable and condemning the next
generations to grinding poverty. Under Clinton the prison population of mostly African Americans expanded and the breakup of families
ravaged the urban communities.
Provoked by an act of terrorism (9/11) President G.W. Bush Jr. launched the 'endless' wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and deepened
the police state (Patriot Act). Wages for American workers and profits for American capitalist moved in opposite directions.
The Great Financial Crash of 2008-2011 shook the paper economy to its roots and led to the greatest shakedown of any national
treasury in history directed by the First Black American President. Trillions of public wealth were funneled into the criminal banks
on Wall Street – which were ' just too big to fail .' Millions of American workers and homeowners, however, were '
just
too small to matter' .
The Age of Demagogues
President Obama transferred 2 trillion dollars to the ten biggest bankers and swindlers on Wall Street, and another trillion
to the Pentagon to pursue the Democrats version of foreign policy: from Bush's two overseas wars to Obama's seven.
Obama's electoral 'donor-owners' stashed away two trillion dollars in overseas tax havens and looked forward to global free trade
pacts – pushed by the eloquent African American President.
Obama was elected to two terms. His liberal Democratic Party supporters swooned over his peace and justice rhetoric while
swallowing his militarist escalation into seven overseas wars as well as the foreclosure of two million American householders. Obama
completely failed to honor his campaign promise to reduce wage inequality between black and white wage earners while he continued
to moralize to black families about ' values' .
Obama's war against Libya led to the killing and displacement of millions of black Libyans and workers from Sub-Saharan Africa.
The smiling Nobel Peace Prize President created more desperate refugees than any previous US head of state – including millions of
Africans flooding Europe.
'Obamacare' , his imitation of an earlier Republican governor's health plan, was formulated by the private corporate
health industry (private insurance, Big Pharma and the for-profit hospitals), to mandate enrollment and ensure triple digit profits
with double digit increases in premiums. By the 2016 Presidential elections, ' Obama-care' was opposed by a 45%-43% margin
of the American people. Obama's propagandists could not show any improvement of life expectancy or decrease in infant and maternal
mortality as a result of his 'health care reform'. Indeed the opposite occurred among the marginalized working class in the old 'rust
belt' and in the rural areas. This failure to show any significant health improvement for the masses of Americans is in stark contrast
to LBJ's Medicare program of the 1960's, which continues to receive massive popular support.
Forty-years of anti welfare legislation and pro-business regimes paved the golden road for the election of Donald Trump
Trump and the Republicans are focusing on the tattered remnants of the social welfare system: Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security.
The remains of FDR's New Deal and LBJ's Great Society -- are on the chopping block.
The moribund (but well-paid) labor leadership has been notable by its absence in the ensuing collapse of the social welfare
state. The liberal left Democrats embraced the platitudinous Obama/Clinton team as the 'Great Society's' gravediggers, while wailing
at Trump's allies for shoving the corpse of welfare state into its grave.
Conclusion
Over the past forty years the working class and the rump of what was once referred to as the ' labor movement' has contributed
to the dismantling of the social welfare state, voting for ' strike-breaker' Reagan, ' workfare' Clinton, ' Wall Street crash' Bush,
' Wall Street savior' Obama and ' Trickle-down' Trump.
Gone are the days when social welfare and profitable wars raised US living standards and transformed American trade unions
into an appendage of the Democratic Party and a handmaiden of Empire. The Democratic Party rescued capitalism from its collapse in
the Great Depression, incorporated labor into the war economy and the post- colonial global empire, and resurrected Wall Street from
the 'Great Financial Meltdown' of the 21 st century.
The war economy no longer fuels social welfare. The military-industrial complex has found new partners on Wall Street and
among the globalized multi-national corporations. Profits rise while wages fall. Low paying compulsive labor (workfare) lopped off
state transfers to the poor. Technology – IT, robotics, artificial intelligence and electronic gadgets – has created the most class
polarized social system in history. The first trillionaire and multi-billionaire tax evaders rose on the backs of a miserable
standing army of tens of millions of low-wage workers, stripped of rights and representation. State subsidies eliminate virtually
all risk to capital. The end of social welfare coerced labor (including young mother with children) to seek insecure low-income employment
while slashing education and health – cementing the feet of generations into poverty. Regional wars abroad have depleted the Treasury
and robbed the country of productive investment. Economic imperialism exports profits, reversing the historic relation of the past.
Labor is left without compass or direction; it flails in all directions and falls deeper in the web of deception and demagogy.
To escape from Reagan and the strike breakers, labor embraced the cheap-labor predator Clinton; black and white workers united to
elect Obama who expelled millions of immigrant workers, pursued 7 wars, abandoned black workers and enriched the already filthy rich.
Deception and demagogy of the labor-
If the welfare state in America was abolished, major American cities would burn to the ground. Anarchy would ensue, it would be
magnitudes bigger than anything that happened in Ferguson or Baltimore. It would likely be simultaneous.
I think that's one of the only situations where preppers would actually live out what they've been prepping for (except for
a natural disaster).
I've been thinking about this a little over the past few years after seeing the race riots. What exactly is the line between
our society being civilized and breaking out into chaos. It's probably a lot thinner than most people think.
I don't know who said it but someone long ago said something along the lines of, "Democracy can only work until the people
figure out they can vote for themselves generous benefits from the public treasury." We are definitely in this situation today.
I wonder how long it can last.
While I agree with Petras's intent (notwithstanding several exaggerations and unnecessary conflations with, for example, racism),
I don't agree so much with the method he proposes. I don't mind welfare and unions to a certain extent, but they are not going
to save us unless there is full employment and large corporations that can afford to pay an all-union workforce. That happened
during WW2, as only wartime demand and those pesky wage freezes solved the Depression, regardless of all the public works programs;
while the postwar era benefited from the US becoming the world's creditor, meaning that capital could expand while labor participation
did as well.
From then on, it is quite hard to achieve the same success after outsourcing and mechanization have happened all over the world.
Both of these phenomena not only create displaced workers, but also displaced industries, meaning that it makes more sense to
develop individual workfare (and even then, do it well, not the shoddy way it is done now) rather than giving away checks that
probably will not be cashed for entrepreneurial purposes, and rather than giving away money to corrupt unions who depend on trusts
to be able to pay for their benefits, while raising the cost of hiring that only encourages more outsourcing.
The amount of welfare given is not necessarily the main problem, the problem is doing it right for the people who truly need
it, and efficiently – that is, with the least amount of waste lost between the chain of distribution, which should reach intended
targets and not moochers.
Which inevitably means a sound tax system that targets unearned wealth and (to a lesser degree) foreign competition instead
of national production, coupled with strict, yet devolved and simple government processes that benefit both business and individuals
tired of bureaucracy, while keeping budgets balanced. Best of both worlds, and no military-industrial complex needed to drive
up demand.
The American welfare state was created in 1935 and continued to develop through 1973. Since then, over a prolonged period,
the capitalist class has been steadily dismantling the entire welfare state.
Wrong wrong wrong.
Corporations [now] are welfare recipients and the bigger they are, the more handouts they suck up, and welfare for
them started before 1935. In fact, it started in America before there was a USA. I do not have time to elaborate, but what were
the various companies such as the British East India Company and the Dutch West India Companies but state pampered, welfare based
entities? ~200 years ago, Herbert Spencer, if memory serves, pointed out that the British East India Company couldn't make a profit
even with all the special, government granted favors showered upon it.
Corporations not only continuously seek monopolies (with the aid and sanction of the state) but they steadily fine tune
the welfare state for their benefit. In fact, in reality, welfare for prols and peasants wouldn't exist if it didn't act as a
money conduit and ultimate profit center for the big money grubbers.
Well, the author kind of nails it. I remember from my childhood in the 50-60 ties in Scandinavia that the US was the ultimate
goal in welfare. The country where you could make a good living with your two hands, get you kids to UNI, have a house, a telly
ECT. It was not consumerism, it was the American dream, a chicken in every pot; we chewed imported American gum and dreamed.
In the 70-80 ties Scandinavia had a tremendous social and economic growth, EQUALLY distributed, an immense leap forward. In the
middle of the 80 ties we were equal to the US in standards of living.
Since we have not looked at the US, unless in pity, as we have seen the decline of the general income, social wealth fall way
behind our own.
The average US workers income has not increased since 90 figures adjusted for inflation. The Scandinavian workers income in the
same period has almost quadrupled. And so has our societies.
The article is dismal reading, and evidence of the failings of the "unregulated" society, where the anything goes as long
as you are wealthy.
Between the mid 1970's to the present (2017) labor laws, welfare rights and benefits and the construction of and subsidies
for affordable housing have been gutted. 'Workfare' (under President 'Bill' Clinton) ended welfare for the poor and displaced
workers. Meanwhile the shift to regressive taxation and the steadily declining real wages have increased corporate profits
to an astronomical degree.
What does Hollywood "elite" JAP and wannabe hack-stand-up-comic Sarah Silverman think about the class struggle and problems
facing destitute Americans? "Qu'ils mangent de la bagels!", source:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let_them_eat_cake
Like the Pentagon. Americans still don't readily call this welfare, but they will eventually. Defense profiteers are unions
in a sense, you're either in their club Or you're in the service industry that surrounds it.
As other commenters have pointed out, it's Petras curious choice of words that sometimes don't make too much sense. We can probably
blame the maleable English language for that, but here it's too obvious. If you don't define a union, people might assume you're
only talking about a bunch of meat cutters at Safeway.
The welfare state is alive and well for corporate America. Unions are still here – but they are defined by access and secrecy,
you're either in the club or not.
The war on unions was successful first by co-option but mostly by the media. But what kind of analysis leaves out the role
of the media in the American transformation? The success is mind blowing.
America has barely literate (white) middle aged males trained to spout incoherent Calvinistic weirdness: unabased hatred for
the poor (or whoever they're told to hate) and a glorification of hedge fund managers as they get laid off, fired and foreclosed
on, with a side of opiates.
There is hardly anything more tragic then seeing a web filled with progressives (management consultants) dedicated to disempowering,
disabling and deligitimizing victims by claiming they are victims of biology, disease or a lack of an education rather than a
system that issues violence while portending (with the best media money can buy) that they claim the higher ground.
""Democracy can only work until the people figure out they can vote for themselves generous benefits from the public
treasury." We are definitely in this situation today."
Quite right: the 0.01% have worked it out & US democracy is a Theatre for the masses.
I don't know who said it but someone long ago said something along the lines of, "Democracy can only work until the people
figure out they can vote for themselves generous benefits from the public treasury."
Some French aristocrat put it as, once the gates to the treasury have been breached, they can only be closed again with gunpowder.
Anyone recognize the author?
The author doesn't get it. What we have now IS the welfare state in an intensely diverse society. We have more transfer spending
than ever before and Obamacare represents another huge entitlement.
Intellectuals continue to fantasize about the US becoming a Big Sweden, but Sweden has only been successful insofar as it has
been a modest nation-state populated by ethnic Swedes. Intense diversity in a huge country with only the remnants of federalism
results in massive non-consensual decision-making, fragmentation, increased inequality, and corruption.
The welfare state is alive and well for corporate America. Unions are still here – but they are defined by access and
secrecy, you're either in the club or not.
They are largely defined as Doctors, Lawyers, and University Professors who teach the first two. Of course they are not called
unions. Access is via credentialing and licensing. Good Day
Bernie Sanders, speaking on behalf of the MIC's welfare bird: "It is the airplane of the United States Air Force, Navy, and
of NATO."
Elizabeth Warren, referring to Mossad's Estes Rockets: "The Israeli military has the right to attack Palestinian hospitals
and schools in self defense"
Barack Obama, yukking it up with pop stars: "Two words for you: predator drones. You will never see it coming."
It's not the agitprop that confuses the sheep, it's whose blowhole it's coming out of (labled D or R for convenience) that
gets them to bare their teeth and speak of poo.
What came first, the credentialing or the idea that it is a necessary part of education? It certainly isn't an accurate indication
of what people know or their general intelligence – although that myth has flourished. Good afternoon.
For an interesting projection of what might happen in total civilizational collapse, I recommend the Dies the Fire series of
novels by SM Stirling.
It has a science-fictiony setup in that all high-energy system (gunpowder, electricity, explosives, internal combustion, even
high-energy steam engines) suddenly stop working. But I think it does a good job of extrapolating what would happen if suddenly
the cities did not have food, water, power, etc.
Spoiler alert: It ain't pretty. Those who dream of a world without guns have not really thought it through.
It has been pointed out repeatedly that Sweden does very well relative to the USA. It has also been noted that people of Swedish
ancestry in the USA do pretty well also. In fact considerably better than Swedes in Sweden
Neoliberalism as "Die-now economics." "Embodiment into lower class" or "the representation as a member the lower
class" if often fatal and upper mobility mobility is artificially limited (despite all MSM hype it is lower then in Europe). So just
being a member of lower class noticeably and negatively affects your life expectancy and other social metrics. Job insecurity
is the hazard reserved for lower and lower middle classes destructivly effect both physical and mental health. Too much stress
is not good for humans. Neoliberalism with its manta of competition uber alles and atomization of the workforce is a real killer.
also the fact that such article was published and the comments below is a clear sign that the days of neoliberalism are numbered.
It should go.
Notable quotes:
"... In our new book , we draw on an extensive body of scientific literature to assess the health effects of three decades of neoliberal policies. Focusing on the social determinants of health -- the conditions of life and work that make it relatively easy for some people to lead long and healthy lives, while it is all but impossible for others -- we show that there are four interconnected neoliberal epidemics: austerity, obesity, stress, and inequality. They are neoliberal because they are associated with or worsened by neoliberal policies. ..."
"... Neoliberalism operates through labor markets to undermine health not only by way of the financial consequences of unemployment, inadequate employment, or low wages, as important as these are, but also through chronic exposure to stress that 'gets under your skin' by way of multiple mechanisms. Quite simply, the effects of chronic insecurity wear people out over the life course in biologically measurable ways . ..."
"... Oh, and "beyond class" because for social beings embodiment involves "social production; social consumption; and social reproduction." In the most reductive definition of class -- the one I used in my crude 1% + 10% + 90% formulation -- class is determined by wage work (or not), hence is a part of production (of capital), not social consumption (eating, etc.) or social reproduction (children, families, household work ). So, even if class in our political economy is the driver, it's not everything. ..."
"... "Neoliberalism sees competition as the defining characteristic of human relations. It redefines citizens as consumers, whose democratic choices are best exercised by buying and selling, a process that rewards merit and punishes inefficiency. It maintains that "the market" delivers benefits that could never be achieved by planning. ..."
"... Attempts to limit competition are treated as inimical to liberty. Tax and regulation should be minimised, public services should be privatised. The organisation of labour and collective bargaining by trade unions are portrayed as market distortions that impede the formation of a natural hierarchy of winners and losers. Inequality is recast as virtuous: a reward for utility and a generator of wealth, which trickles down to enrich everyone. Efforts to create a more equal society are both counterproductive and morally corrosive. The market ensures that everyone gets what they deserve." ..."
"... As opposed to being champions of "self-actualization/identity" and "absolute relativism", I always got the impression that they were both offering stark warnings about diving too deeply into the self, vis-a-vis, identity. As if, they both understood the terrifying world that it could/would create, devoid of common cause, community, and ultimately empathy. A world where "we" are not possible because we have all become "I". ..."
"... Wonks like Yglesias love to mock working class concerns as "economic anxiety," which is at once belittling (it's all about f-e-e-e-lings ..."
"... "we have measurable health outcomes from political choices" So True!!! ..."
In our new book
, we draw on an extensive body of scientific literature to assess the health effects of three decades of neoliberal policies.
Focusing on the social determinants
of health -- the conditions of life and work that make it relatively easy for some people to lead long and healthy lives,
while it is all but impossible for others -- we show that there are four interconnected neoliberal epidemics: austerity, obesity,
stress, and inequality. They are neoliberal because they are associated with or worsened by neoliberal policies. They are
epidemics because they are observable on such an international scale and have been transmitted so quickly across time and space
that if they were biological contagions they would be seen as of epidemic proportions.
(The Case-Deaton study provides an obvious fifth: Deaths of despair. There are doubtless others.)
Case in point for
one of the unluckier members of the 90%:
On the morning of 25 August 2014 a young New Jersey woman, Maria Fernandes, died from inhaling gasoline fumes as she slept
in her 13-year-old car. She often slept in the car while shuttling between her three, low-wage jobs in food service; she kept
a can of gasoline in the car because she often slept with the engine running, and was worried about running out of gasoline. Apparently,
the can accidentally tipped over and the vapours from spilled gasoline cost her life. Ms Fernandes was one of the more obvious
casualties of the zero-hours culture of stress and insecurity that pervades the contemporary labour market under neoliberalism.
And Schrecker and Bambra conclude:
Neoliberalism operates through labor markets to undermine health not only by way of the financial consequences of unemployment,
inadequate employment, or low wages, as important as these are, but also through chronic exposure to stress that 'gets under your
skin' by way of multiple mechanisms. Quite simply, the effects of chronic insecurity wear people out over the life course in
biologically measurable ways .
... ... ...
Oh, and "beyond class" because for social beings embodiment involves "social production; social consumption; and social reproduction."
In the most reductive definition of class -- the one I used in my crude 1% + 10% + 90% formulation -- class is determined by wage
work (or not), hence is a part of production (of capital), not social consumption (eating, etc.) or social reproduction (children,
families, household work ). So, even if class in our political economy is the driver, it's not everything.
L.S. reminiscent of Ernst Becker's, "The Structure of Evil" – "Escape from Evil"? (..not to indicate good vs. evil dichotomy)
A great amount of perspective must be agreed upon to achieve "change" intoned. Divide and conquer are complicit, as noted .otherwise
(and as indicated by U.S. economic history) change arrives only when all have lost all and can therefore agree begin again.
There is however, Naomi Klein perspective, "Shock Doctrine", whereby influence contributes to destabilization, plan in hand
leading to agenda driven ("neoliberal"=market fundamentalism) outcome, not at all spontaneous in nature:
"Neoliberalism sees competition as the defining characteristic of human relations. It redefines citizens as consumers,
whose democratic choices are best exercised by buying and selling, a process that rewards merit and punishes inefficiency. It
maintains that "the market" delivers benefits that could never be achieved by planning.
Attempts to limit competition are treated as inimical to liberty. Tax and regulation should be minimised, public services
should be privatised. The organisation of labour and collective bargaining by trade unions are portrayed as market distortions
that impede the formation of a natural hierarchy of winners and losers. Inequality is recast as virtuous: a reward for utility
and a generator of wealth, which trickles down to enrich everyone. Efforts to create a more equal society are both counterproductive
and morally corrosive. The market ensures that everyone gets what they deserve."
On Case-Deason: Sounds like home. I keep the scanner on(local news) ems and fire only since 2006(sheriff got a homeland security
grant). The incidence of suicide, overdose and "intoxication psychosis" are markedly increased in the last 10+ years out here
in the wilderness(5K folks in whole county, last I looked). Our local economy went into near depression after the late 90's farm
bill killed the peanut program then 911 meant no hunting season that year(and it's been noticeably less busy ever since) then
drought and the real estate crash(we had 30 some realtors at peak..old family land being sold off, mostly). So the local Bourgeoisie
have had less money to spend, which "trickles down" onto the rest of us.:less construction, less eating out even at the cheap
places, less buying of gas, and on and on means fewer employees are needed, thus fewer jobs. To boot, there is a habit among many
employers out here of not paying attention to labor laws(it is Texas ) the last minwage rise took 2 years to filter out here,
and one must scrutinize one's pay stub to ensure that the boss isn't getting squirrelly with overtime and witholding.
Geography plays into all this, too 100 miles to any largish city.
I'm not well versed in Foucault or Lacan but I've read some of both and in reading between the lines of their writing (the
phantom philosophy?) I saw a very different message than that often delivered by post-modern theorists.
As opposed to being champions of "self-actualization/identity" and "absolute relativism", I always got the impression that
they were both offering stark warnings about diving too deeply into the self, vis-a-vis, identity. As if, they both understood
the terrifying world that it could/would create, devoid of common cause, community, and ultimately empathy. A world where "we"
are not possible because we have all become "I".
Considering what both their philosophies claimed, if identity is a lie, and the subject is always generated relative to the
other, then how the hell can there be any security or well being in self-actualization? It is like trying to hit a target that
does not exist.
All potentially oppressive cultural categorizations are examples of this (black, latino, gay, trans, etc.). If the identity
is a moving target, both to the oppressor and the oppressed, then how can it ever be a singular source of political action? You
can't hit what isn't there. This is not to say that these groups (in whatever determined category) are not oppressed, just that
formulating political action based strictly on the identity (often as an essential category) is impossible because it does not
actually exist materially. It is an amalgamation of subjects who's subjectivity is always relative to some other whether ally
or oppressor. Only the manifestations of oppression on bodies (as brought up in Lambert's post) can be utilized as metrics for
political action.
I thought of a couple of other advantages of the "embodiment" paradigm:
Better Framing. Wonks like Yglesias love to mock working class concerns as "economic anxiety," which is
at once belittling (it's all about f-e-e-e-lings *) and disempowering (solutions are individual, like therapy or drugs).
Embodiment by contrast insists that neoliberalism (the neoliberal labor market (class warfare)) has real, material, physiological
effects that can be measured and tracked, as with any epidemic.
"... The initiative described in this article reminds me of how the World Bank pushed hard for emerging economies to develop capital markets, for the greater good of America's investment bankers. ..."
"... By Burcu Kilic, an expert on legal, economic and political issues. Originally published at openDemocracy ..."
"... Today, the big tech race is for data extractivism from those yet to be 'connected' in the world – tech companies will use all their power to achieve a global regime in which small nations cannot regulate either data extraction or localisation. ..."
"... One suspects big money will be thrown at this by the leading tech giants. ..."
"... Out of idle curiosity, how could you accurately deduce my country of origin from my name? ..."
December 14, 2017 by Yves Smith Yves here. Notice that Costa
Rica is served up as an example in this article. Way back in 1997, American Express had
designated Costa Rica as one of the countries it identified as sufficiently high income so as
to be a target for a local currency card offered via a franchise agreement with a domestic
institution (often but not always a bank). 20 years later, the Switzerland of Central America
still has limited Internet connectivity, yet is precisely the sort of place that tech titans
like Google would like to dominate.
The initiative described in this article reminds me of how the World Bank pushed hard
for emerging economies to develop capital markets, for the greater good of America's investment
bankers.
By Burcu Kilic, an expert on legal, economic and political issues. Originally published
at
openDemocracy
Today, the big tech race is for data extractivism from those yet to be 'connected' in
the world – tech companies will use all their power to achieve a global regime in which
small nations cannot regulate either data extraction or localisation.
To avoid a 'failure ministerial," some countries see the solution as pushing governments to
open a mandate to start conversations that might lead to a negotiation on binding rules for
e-commerce and a declaration of the gathering as the "digital ministerial". Argentina's MC11
chair, Susana Malcorra, is actively pushing for member states to embrace e-commerce at the WTO,
claiming that it is necessary to " bridge the gap between the
haves and have-nots ".
It is not very clear what kind of gaps Malcorra is trying to bridge. It surely isn't the
"connectivity gap" or "digital divide" that is growing between developed and developing
countries, seriously impeding digital learning and knowledge in developing countries. In fact,
half of humanity is not even connected to the internet, let alone positioned to develop
competitive markets or bargain at a multilateral level. Negotiating binding e-commerce rules at
the WTO would only widen that gap.
Dangerously, the "South Vision" of digital trade in the global trade arena is being shaped
by a recent alliance of governments and well-known tech-sector lobbyists, in a group called
'Friends of E-Commerce for Development' (FED), including Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Costa
Rica, Kenya, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Uruguay, and, most recently, China. FED
claims that e-commerce is a tool to drive growth, narrow the digital divide, and generate
digital solutions for developing and least developed countries.
However, none of the countries in the group (apart from China) is leading or even remotely
ready to be in a position to negotiate and push for binding rules on digital trade that will be
favorable to them, as their economies are still far away from the technology revolution. For
instance, it is perplexing that one of the most fervent defenders of FED's position is Costa
Rica. The country's economy is based on the export of bananas, coffee, tropical
fruits, and low-tech medical instruments, and almost half of its population
is offline . Most of the countries in FED are far from being powerful enough to shift
negotiations in favor of small players.
U.S.-based tech giants and Chinese Alibaba – so-called GAFA-A – dominate, by
far, the future of the digital playing field, including issues such as identification and
digital payments, connectivity, and the next generation of logistics solutions. In fact, there
is a no-holds-barred ongoing race among these tech giants to consolidate their market share in
developing economies, from the race to grow the advertising market to the race to increase
online payments.
An e-commerce agenda that claims unprecedented development for the Global South is a Trojan
horse move. Beginning negotiations on such topics at this stage – before governments are
prepared to understand what is at stake – could lead to devastating results, accelerating
liberalization and the consolidation of the power of tech giants to the detriment of local
industries, consumers, and citizens. Aware of the increased disparities between North and
South, and the data dominance of a tiny group of GAFA-A companies, a group of African nations
issued a statement opposing the digital ambitions of the host for MC11. But the political
landscape is more complex, with China, the EU, and Russia now supporting the idea of a
"digital" mandate .
Repeating the Same Mistakes?
The relationships of most countries with tech companies are as imbalanced as their
relationships with Big Pharma, and there are many parallels to note. Not so long ago, the
countries of the Global South faced Big Pharma power in pharmaceutical markets in a similar
way. Some developing countries had the same enthusiasm when they negotiated intellectual
property rules for the protection of innovation and research and development costs. In reality,
those countries were nothing more than users and consumers of that innovation, not the owners
or creators. The lessons of negotiating trade issues that lie at the core of public interest
issues – in that case, access to medicines – were costly. Human lives and
fundamental rights of those who use online services should not be forgotten when addressing the
increasingly worrying and unequal relationships with tech power.
The threat before our eyes is similarly complex and equally harmful to the way our societies
will be shaped in the coming years. In the past, the Big Pharma race was for patent
exclusivity, to eliminate local generic production and keep drug prices high. Today, the Big
Tech race is for data extractivism from those who have yet to be connected in the world, and
tech companies will use all the power they hold to achieve a global regime in which small
nations cannot regulate either data extraction or data localization.
Big Tech is one of the most concentrated and resourceful industries of all time. The
bargaining power of developing countries is minimal. Developing countries will basically be
granting the right to cultivate small parcels of a land controlled by data lords -- under their
rules, their mandate, and their will -- with practically no public oversight. The stakes are
high. At the core of it is the race to conquer the markets of digital payments and the battle
to become the platform where data flows, splitting the territory as old empires did in the
past. As
the Economist claimed on May 6, 2017: "Conflicts over control of oil have scarred
the world for decades. No one yet worries that wars will be fought over data. But the data
economy has the same potential for confrontation."
If countries from the Global South want to prepare for data wars, they should start thinking
about how to reduce the control of Big Tech over -- how we communicate, shop, and learn the
news -- , again, over our societies. The solution lies not in making rules for data
liberalization, but in devising ways to use the law to reduce Big Tech's power and protect
consumers and citizens. Finding the balance would take some time and we are going to take that
time to find the right balance, we are not ready to lock the future yet.
One suspects big money will be thrown at this by the leading tech giants. To paraphrase
from a comment I made recently regarding a similar topic : "with markets in the developed
world pretty much sewn up by the tripartite tech overlords (google, fb and amazon), the next
3 billion users for their products/services are going to come from developing world". With
this dynamic in mind, and the "constant growth" mantra humming incessantly in the background,
it's easy to see how high stakes a game this is for the tech giants and how no resources will
be spared to stymie any efforts at establishing a regulatory oversight framework that will
protect the digital rights of citizens in the global south.
Multilateral fora like the WTO are de facto enablers for the marauding frontal attacks of
transnational corporations, and it's disheartening to see that some developing nations have
already nailed the digital futures of their citizens to the mast of the tech giants by
joining this alliance. What's more, this signing away of their liberty will be sold to the
citizenry as the best way to usher them into the brightest of all digital futures.
One suspects big money will be thrown at this by the leading tech giants.
Vast sums of money are already being thrown at bringing Africa online, for better
or worse. Thus, the R&D aimed at providing wireless Internet via giant
drones/balloons/satellites by Google, Facebook, etc.
You're African. Possibly South African by your user name, which may explain why you're a
little behind the curve, because the action is already happening, but more to the north --
and particularly in East Africa.
The big corporations -- and the tech giants are competing with the banking/credit card
giants -- have noted how mobile technology leapt over the dearth of last century's telephony
tech, land lines, and in turn enabled the highest adoption rates of cellphone banking in the
world. (Particularly in East Africa, as I say.) The payoffs for big corporations are massive
-- de facto cashless societies where the corporations control the payment systems
–and the politicians are mostly cheap.
In Nigeria, the government has launched a Mastercard-branded national ID card that's also
a payment card, in one swoop handing Mastercard more than 170 million potential customers,
and their personal and biometric data.
In Kenya, the sums transferred by mobile money operator M-Pesa are more than 25 percent of
that country's GDP.
You can see that bringing Africa online is technically a big, decade-long project. But
also that the potential payoffs are vast. Though I also suspect China may come out ahead --
they're investing far more in Africa and in some areas their technology -- drones, for
instance -- is already superior to what the Europeans and the American companies have.
Hoisted from a comment I made here recently: "Here in South Africa and through its Free
Basics programme, facebook is jumping into bed with unsuspecting ISPs (I say unsuspecting
because fb will soon be muscling in on their territory and becoming an ISP itself by
provisioning bandwidth directly from its floating satellites) and circumventing net
neutrality "
I'm also keenly aware of the developments in Kenya re: safaricom and Mpesa and how that
has led to traditional banking via bank accounts being largely leapfrogged for those moving
from being unbanked to active economic citizens requiring money transfer facilities. Given
the huge succes of Mpesa, I wouldn't be surprised if a multinational tech behemoth (chinese
or american) were to make a play for acquiring safaricom and positioning it as a triple-play
ISP, money transfer/banking services and digital content provider (harvesting data about
users habits on an unprecedented scale across multiple areas of their lives), first in Kenya
then expanded throughout east, central and west africa. I must add that your statement about
Nigeria puts Mark Zuckerberg's visit there a few months back into context somewhat, perhaps a
reconnaissance mission of sorts.
Out of idle curiosity, how could you accurately deduce my country of origin from my
name?
As you also write: "with markets in the developed world pretty much sewn up by the
tripartite tech overlords (google, fb and amazon), the next 3 billion users for their
products/services are going to come from developing world."
Absolutely true. This cannot be stressed enough. The tech giants know this and the race is
on.
Actually Marx's "labor theory of value" should be properly called the "theory of surplus value".
Notable quotes:
"... For Marx, value was socially-necessary labour time: David Harvey is good on this. From this perspective, exploitation and alienation are linked. Workers are exploited because they must work longer than necessary to get their consumption bundle. And they are alienated because this work is unsatisfying and a source of unfreedom. Now, I'll concede that many people hate the labour theory of value. One reason for this is that many discussions of it quickly become obscurantist – as if "value" is some mystical entity embodied in commodities. ..."
"... This, though, certainly was not Marx's intention. Quite the opposite. He intended his theory to be a demystification. He wanted to show how what looked like relations between things – the exchange of money for goods or labour-time – were in fact relations between people. And unequal ones at that. ..."
"... I suspect that some of the animosity to Marx's use of LTV arises because of a resistance to the inference that Marx drew from it – that workers are exploited. This issue, however, is independent of the validity of not of the LTV. For example, Roemer thinks workers are exploited without believing in the LTV, and Smith believed the LTV without arguing that workers were exploited. ..."
"... * He seems to be recovering now. The vet is also expected to make a full recovery eventually. ..."
"... Further understanding, which evolved after Marx, is that the LTV is just special case of the principle that what produces a surplus of usefulness is not labour per se, but the energy used in the transformation of a larger quantity of something into a smaller quantity of something else, and muscle power is just one way, even if it was the main one for a very long time, to obtain energy to transform a large quantity of less useful commodities into a smaller quantity of more useful commodities. ..."
"... And this follows into the impression that I have derived from various authors that our high standards of living depend not on the high "productivity" of labour, but on the high "productivity" of fossil fuels, which are the product of the fertility of land ..."
"... the complex process of differentiation in the economy (aka the division of labor) obscures the relationship between the creation of the surplus (work time above that necessary to reproduce consumption bundle) and its utilization by capitalists via investment. Investment is not possible without exploitation of workers, but that relationship is occluded by the mechanics of employment, markets, and property. ..."
"... My impression is that your bearded friend Karl does not use "alienation" in that sense at all, in an economic sense, but in a humanist sense: that by being separated from the means of production proletarians are alienated from the meaning of their work, from work as a human activity, as distinct from an economic activity ..."
"... Practically every "Dilbert" strip is about "alienation". This is my favourite ..."
"... Placing a high value on the frivolous and "useless" has always been the hallmark of those most able to decide the value of anything, because they have no use for economic use (so to speak), but rather social signaling. Broad social respect is an extremely expensive thing to buy with money alone. ..."
Lucius has been poorly recently, which has required some trips to the vet and therefore a bill of a size that only David Davis
could negotiate*. This has made me wonder: is there more to be said for the labour theory of
value than we like to think?
For a long time, I've not really cared about this theory one way or the other. This is partly because I've not bothered much with
questions of value; partly because, as John Roemer has shown, we don't
need (pdf)
a labour theory of value to suggest workers are exploited; and partly because the main Marxian charges against capitalism – for
example that it entails relationships of
domination – hold
true (or not!) independently of the theory.
As I approach retirement, however, I've begun to change my mind. I think of major expenses in terms of labour-time because they
mean I have to work longer. A trip to the vet is an extra fortnight of work; a good guitar an extra month, a car an extra year, and
so on.
When I consider my spending, I ask: what must I give up in order to get that? And the answer is my time and freedom. My labour-time
is the measure of value.
This is a reasonable basis for the claim that workers are exploited. To buy a bundle of goods and services, we must work a number
of hours a week. But taking all workers together, the hours we work are greater than the hours needed to produce those bundles because
we must also work to provide a profit for the capitalist. As Marx
put it:
We have seen that the labourer, during one portion of the labour-process, produces only the value of his labour-power, that
is, the value of his means of subsistence During the second period of the labour-process, that in which his labour is no longer
necessary labour, the workman, it is true, labours, expends labour-power; but his labour, being no longer necessary labour, he
creates no value for himself. He creates surplus-value which, for the capitalist, has all the charms of a creation out of nothing.
This portion of the working-day, I name surplus labour-time.
For Marx, value was socially-necessary labour time: David Harvey is
good on this. From this
perspective, exploitation and alienation are linked. Workers are exploited because they must work longer than necessary to get their
consumption bundle. And they are alienated because this work is unsatisfying and a source of unfreedom. Now, I'll concede that many
people hate the labour theory of value. One reason for this is that many discussions of it quickly become obscurantist – as if "value"
is some mystical entity embodied in commodities.
This, though, certainly was not Marx's intention. Quite the opposite. He intended his theory to be a demystification. He wanted
to show how what looked like relations between things – the exchange of money for goods or labour-time – were in fact relations between
people. And unequal ones at that.
What's more, the charge of obscurantism against Marx is an especially weak one when it comes from orthodox economics. Much of
this invokes unobservable concepts such as the natural rate of unemployment, marginal productivity, utility, the marginal product
of
capital and natural rate of interest – ideas which,
in the last two cases, might not even be theoretically coherent.
In fact, the LTV is reasonably successful by the standards of conventional economics: we have empirical evidence to suggest that
it does (pdf) a
decent (pdf) job of
explaining (pdf) relative prices – not that this was
how Marx intended it to be used.
You can of course, think of counter-examples to the theory. But so what? in the social sciences, no substantial theory is 100%
true.
I suspect that some of the animosity to Marx's use of LTV arises because of a resistance to the inference that Marx drew from
it – that workers are exploited. This issue, however, is independent of the validity of not of the LTV. For example, Roemer thinks
workers are exploited without believing in the LTV, and Smith believed the LTV without arguing that workers were exploited.
By the (low) standards of economic theories, perhaps the LTV
isn't so bad.
* He seems to be recovering now. The vet is also expected to make a full recovery eventually.
But the LTV says more than the output of the economy is divided between the workers and the (suppliers and) owners of capital
goods, doesn't it? I mean, mainstream econ says that too. And unless ownership of capital inputs to production is distributed
equally across society, then some people consume things that other's labour has produced, which means workers must produce more
than they consume. But again, that's basic mainstream stuff, not LVT. You end by saying you can believe in exploitation but not
LVT, and vice versa, but the main body of this blog seems to be connecting the two. I am confused.
Of course if you have the ability to vary your labour supply, and labour is how you earn your money, then you ask yourself
how much you need to work to purchase whatever. But again that's mainstream not LVT.
"Smith believed the LTV without arguing that workers were exploited."
The Marxian approach was interested in, as other commenters have said, in the specific capitalist case, where "capitalism"
for him means strictly "labour for hire" by workers alienated from the means of production by their ownership by capitalists.
But the labour theory of value, as understood by what Marx called "classicals", applies also to all labour, and he used it
in that sense.
My understanding of the classicals and the LTV is reduced to a minimum this:
By "value" we mean "surplus".
The "physiocrats" correctly identified "land" (mines, farms, the sea) as a producer of physical surplus: once corn seed
produces a whole corn cob. The quantity of physical output appears to be greater than the quantity of physical input, a phenomenon
that used to be called "fertility".
However the "classicals" recognized that there is surplus also when the quantity of output is physically smaller than the
quantity of input: a larger quantity of iron ore and coal gets turned into a much smaller quantity of metal called "spoon",
and that generates surplus too.
Since the surplus is not quantitative they called it a surplus of "ofelimity", of usefulness. A spoon is more useful than
the physically larger quantity of iron ore and coal used to make it, in most contexts.
So the question is what creates a surplus of ofelimity even if quantity shrinks drastically.
The classicals observed that while quantitative surplus may be spontaneous, as in apple trees just produce apples by themselves,
all cases involving a surplus of ofelimity involved the application of labour.
The LTV is simply that observation: that the whole chain of surpluses of ofelimity always goes back to the application
of labour, from the first people who chipped obsidian blocks into blades onwards.
As such the LTV is not really a "theory": it is a generic principle. It would be more properly a theory if there was some
kind of "law" that related the quantity of labour embedded in a commodity to the surplus of usefulness it seems to have. But
any such law cannot be universal, because usefulness is strictly context dependent. Sraffa wrote some preliminary booklet about
that :-).
Further understanding, which evolved after Marx, is that the LTV is just special case of the principle that what produces
a surplus of usefulness is not labour per se, but the energy used in the transformation of a larger quantity of something into
a smaller quantity of something else, and muscle power is just one way, even if it was the main one for a very long time, to obtain
energy to transform a large quantity of less useful commodities into a smaller quantity of more useful commodities.
And this follows into the impression that I have derived from various authors that our high standards of living depend
not on the high "productivity" of labour, but on the high "productivity" of fossil fuels, which are the product of the fertility
of land.
"value, in terms of risk among others, that the employers put in starting a new business?"
If the business produces a surplus, that is value added, than the surplus is the product of the energy/labour expended by all
participants
How it is accounted for is one issue, especially over multiple time periods, and how it is shared out is a social relationship.
As to risk, everybody in the business runs the risk of not getting paid at the end of the month, and the opportunity cost of
not doing something else, whichever labour they put in.
How risk and opportunity cost are accounted for, especially over multiple time periods, is another issue, and how they are
shared is another social relationship.
"the surplus is the product of the energy/labour expended by all participants"
I'll perhaps further diminish the reputation of my "contributions" this way: perhaps all social relationships of production
(at least among males) map closely onto (cursorial) group hunts.
"a very long winded way of saying that making stuff requires labour"
Well, that's obvious, but what the classicals thought of as the LTV was not entirely obvious: that "surplus" (rather than "stuff")
comes from the fertility of land and the transformation achieved with labour, and that nothing else is needed to achieve "surplus".
Because for example capital goods are themselves surplus from fertility or labour, again back to the first blades made from chipping
lumps of obsidian.
That's quite a bit more insightful, never mind also controversial, than "making stuff requires labour".
Love this post. But, being a fellow marxist, I can't help but to disagree with this bit: "And they are alienated because this
work is unsatisfying and a source of unfreedom." This is a colloquial use of alienation, and its not wrong.
But Marx is getting at something else: the complex process of differentiation in the economy (aka the division of labor)
obscures the relationship between the creation of the surplus (work time above that necessary to reproduce consumption bundle)
and its utilization by capitalists via investment. Investment is not possible without exploitation of workers, but that relationship
is occluded by the mechanics of employment, markets, and property.
That's the sense in which workers are alienated under capitalism. Socialism could still have boring work, but, in so far as
the investment function is brought under collective democratic control, workers would not be alienated in the special sense Marx
is using.
"Where else could stuff come from?" Well, assuming by "stuff" we mean objects of value, nowhere. But the reasons for which
we value them are not dependent upon their natural origins or the labor required for their production. I don't value a computer
because it's made of plastic and silicon and so forth, nor because of the labor required to produce it. It's useful because of
what it does, not what it is; it's sort of Kant's definition of art versus the general conception of tools.
As for the relationship between production functions and the LTV, that seems (at least prima facie) pretty straightforward.
If there is a high olefimity ascribed to the surplus provided by the product created by X, Y, then those production functions
will, themselves, be assigned greater value, i.e., be worthy of more labor-time to attain. E.g., even if I'm not very good at
fishing, if I really like the flavor of fish over other protein sources, I'll spend more time increasing my labor efficiency (be
a better fisherman).
"Everything ultimately derives from nature and the labour of humans. Where else could stuff come from? That's all there
is."
Then in theory the cost (not the price) of everything can be measured in terms of physical quantities of primary inputs and
of hours of work.
"What's controversial about it?"
What is controversial is that written like that you sound like a Marxist: the alternative approach is to say that *property*
creates surplus.
In the standard neoclassical approach "property" is the often forgotten "initial endowments" of the single representative agent.
Anyhow the "narrative" is: as Mr. Moneybags owns the iron mine and the coal mine and the smelter and the ingot roller and spoon
press, then he is entitled to the surplus because without his property it is impossible to make spoons. Labour on its own is worthless,
wastes away, while property is "valuable" capital.
"And how one gets from a production function (stuff is made from X, Y and Z) to LTV"
Production functions are just not very elaborate scams to pretend that property is the factor of production, rather then the
fertility of land and the energy of labour, and land does not exist (after JB Clark "disappeared" it) and labour is just an accessory.
Part of the scam is that "X, Y and Z" are denominated in money, not physical quantities.
As I wrote in another answer accounting for the output of land fertility and labour energy and how it is shared are the difficult
bits. Welcome to the institutional approach to the political economy. :-)
"the reasons for which we value them are not dependent upon their natural origins or the labor required for their production"
And here be dragons. Your old bearded acquaintance Karl has something to say about this :-).
"It's useful because of what it does, not what it is"
So cleaning floors which is very useful should have a high value, while Leonardo paintings, that are merely scarce, should
have a low value :-).
I though that most people reckoned that "value" depends on scarcity: so there is a scarcity of even not very good promoters
of torysm, so G Osborne is entitled to £600,000 a year to edit the "Evening Standard", but there is no scarcity of excellent cleaners,
so cleaners gets minimum wage if they are lucky.
counting hours of worked is not a measure of cost, it is a tally of hours worked. In mainstream econ, production functions
describe a physical production process (to make 1 unit of Y, you combine inputs like so) and are not not denominated in money.
e.g. You multiply L by w to get cost.
Economies are zero sum. GDP must be paid for, otherwise it won't be produced. The only source of money comes from labor costs,
the money paid to workers to work producing GDP. As conservatives note, all taxes fall on workers by directly taking their pay,
or by hiking the prices of what workers buy.
Taxes pay workers, e.g. teachers, and doctors with Medicare and Medicaid, weapons makers and warriors, or pay people to pay
workers, Social Security benefits and SNAP.
Capital has value because it is built by paying workers. It gets a cut to repay the payers of workers.
Monopoly rent seeking is unsustainable. If a monoplists takes more from workers than they pay workers, he eventually takes
so much money workers can no longer pay for GDP and it falls to zero as workers produce what they consume without buying from
the monopolist capital.
Tanstaafl
As Keynes put it:
"I feel sure that the demand for capital is strictly limited in the sense that it would not be difficult to increase the stock
of capital up to a point where its marginal efficiency had fallen to a very low figure. This would not mean that the use of capital
instruments would cost almost nothing, but only that the return from them would have to cover little more than their exhaustion
by wastage and obsolescence together with some margin to cover risk and the exercise of skill and judgment. In short, the aggregate
return from durable goods in the course of their life would, as in the case of short-lived goods, just cover their labour costs
of production plus an allowance for risk and the costs of skill and supervision.
"Now, though this state of affairs would be quite compatible with some measure of individualism, yet it would mean the euthanasia
of the rentier, and, consequently, the euthanasia of the cumulative oppressive power of the capitalist to exploit the scarcity-value
of capital. Interest today rewards no genuine sacrifice, any more than does the rent of land. The owner of capital can obtain
interest because capital is scarce, just as the owner of land can obtain rent because land is scarce. But whilst there may be
intrinsic reasons for the scarcity of land, there are no intrinsic reasons for the scarcity of capital. An intrinsic reason for
such scarcity, in the sense of a genuine sacrifice which could only be called forth by the offer of a reward in the shape of interest,
would not exist, in the long run, except in the event of the individual propensity to consume proving to be of such a character
that net saving in conditions of full employment comes to an end before capital has become sufficiently abundant. But even so,
it will still be possible for communal saving through the agency of the State to be maintained at a level which will allow the
growth of capital up to the point where it ceases to be scarce."
Economies are zero sum. The value of goods and services must equal the labor costs in the long run. Tanstaaafl
"Socialism could still have boring work, but, in so far as the investment function is brought under collective democratic
control, workers would not be alienated in the special sense Marx is using."
My impression is that your bearded friend Karl does not use "alienation" in that sense at all, in an economic sense, but
in a humanist sense: that by being separated from the means of production proletarians are alienated from the meaning of their
work, from work as a human activity, as distinct from an economic activity.
Collective ownership does not change at all that kind of alienation: being a cog in the capitalist machinery is no less alienating
than being a cog in the collectivist machinery.
I think that our blogger when he talks about distributing control of the production process to workers is far closer to the
marxian ideal than a collectivist approach.
Practically every "Dilbert" strip is about "alienation". This is my favourite:
"counting hours of worked is not a measure of cost"
For a definition of "cost" that is made-up disregarding P Sraffa's work and in general the classics.
"multiply L by w to get cost."
As J Robinson and others pointed out that "w" depends on the distribution of income, on the interest rate, etc., so is an institutional
matter.
As I was saying, accounting for the surplus and how to share it is not so easily handwavable.
sorry, I meant for a money definition of cost that is not just counting inputs, but which is inputs multiplied by their prices.
nobody is hand waving. I think the mainstream view is that 'value' and 'surplus' are not meaningful terms, only prices and
profits and subjective value. A production function says nothing about prices, you have to explain them with other stuff, and
as you say, institutions and all manner of things could come in the play there.
You can say that that workers produce more in money terms than than they are paid, which is trivial (the wages paid by an employer
are less than its gross profits so long as there are non-zero returns to capital, interest on a loan or dividends or whatever)
and to my mind it's silly to define that as exploitation because it would apply in situations where the 'capitalist' is getting
a small return and workers rewarded handsomely by any standard. Better imo to define exploitation as when capitalists are earning
excess returns (and I'd fudge that by differentiating between workers' wages and salaries of top execs). Otherwise you lay yourself
open to "the only thing worse than being exploited by capitlists is not beingn exploited by capitalists" which is J Robinson too
I believe.
This is a genuine question: what you exposed above is related to or influenced by Steve Keen's ideas, yes? If so, I'd be interested
in reading about that in more detail.
I've always thought that defining value by scarcity was an absurd misdirection, in part because there is no reason that the
two should correlate at all. At any point in socioeconomic development beyond subsistence, value is to some extent socially defined,
not economically defined. Status ends up being the most "useful" resource, as we see among all those who've never had to worry
about their material conditions.
Placing a high value on the frivolous and "useless" has always been the hallmark of those most able to decide the value
of anything, because they have no use for economic use (so to speak), but rather social signaling. Broad social respect is an
extremely expensive thing to buy with money alone.
@Luis Enrique
Ah, but name for me a production process that doesn't take place over time. There's an infinite amount of time for all of us,
but for each of us only so much, and those who fail to value it die full of regret. Surely someone somewhere must have something
to say about this.
I don't know why I wrote the above. Surplus is also a mainstream term. See wages set by bargaing over a surplus. Presume it's
based on prices of outputs compared to inputs or if in model with real quantities not prices, then in subjective values.
Lukas production functions are defined over a period of time.
Ahem, I am trying to explain my understanding of Marx, who wrote both as economist and a philosopher, and a politial theorist.
Alienation, exploitation and inequality are technically distinct concepts, even if in the marxist (view (and that of every
business school, that are faithful to marxist political economy) capitalist control of the means of production leads to alienation
which leads to exploitation which leads to inequality. In the marxian political economy inequality can exist even with exploitation,
for example, and that makes it less objectionable.
"Surplus is also a mainstream term. See wages set by bargaing over a surplus."
Some Economists have not forgotten at least some terminology of political economy and some Departments of Business still have
surviving "history of economic thought" courses that some postgrads may still accidentally occasionally wander into and pick up
some terms from...
"are not meaningful terms, only prices and profits and subjective value."
But the mainstream focus on prices and profits etc. is the purest handwaving, because it begs the question...
"A production function says nothing about prices"
Ha! This is one of the best examples where mainstream theory handwaves furiously: mainstream production functions switch effortlessly
from "capital" as phusical quantities to aggregating "capital" by reckoning it in "numeraire". That is all about prices, and even
about future expected prices and future expected rates of discount. Therefore rational expectations, a grand feat of handwaving.
"defining value by scarcity was an absurd misdirection, in part because there is no reason that the two should correlate at
all."
Ahhhhhhh but this is a very political point and not quite agreeable because:
One of the conceits of "microfoundations" is to show that there are "laws" of Economics that are precise, so everybody get
exactly their just compensation, so for example demand-supply schedules are always presented, cleverly, as lines and static.
The view of political economists is that instead "everything" lies within boundaries of feasibility, which are dynamic, so
for example demand-supply schedules are ribbons that change over time and circumstances, and transactions happens not at uniquely
determined points of intersections, but in regions of feasibility, the precise point dependent on institutional arrangements.
So the LTV determines one boundary for "price" and desirability another boundary.
"exposed above is related to or influenced by Steve Keen's ideas"
Related and independently derived, but also a bit influenced. I had always suspected that the "classicals" used "labour" as
a synonym for "muscle power", but various later readings persuaded me that was indeed the case. Later post will have some hopefully
interesting detail. Then I looked into the literature and found that obviously this had been figured out before (centuries ago
in some cases, like B de Mandeville).
Blissex if you can come up with a better way of trying to describe total quantities of highly heterogeneous things (i.e. capital)
you have a Nobel awaiting. Everybody know that attempts to put a number on the real quantity of capital is always going to be
a rough and ready endeavour.
I don't see how working with prices and profits is 'handwaving'. What question does it beg? Much of economics is about trying
to explain these things. I would not say economics focuses on prices and profits because many economics models work with real
quantities that are high abstract and in theory are made commensurate using subjective value (utility) as the unit of account.
At 5:30 every morning, Tony Gwiazdowski rolls out of bed, brews a pot of coffee and carefully arranges his laptop, cell phone
and notepad like silverware across the kitchen table.
And then he waits.
Gwiazdowski, 57, has been waiting for 16 months. Since losing his job as a transportation sales manager in February 2009, he wakes
each morning to the sobering reminder that, yes, he is still unemployed. So he pushes aside the fatigue, throws on some clothes and
sends out another flurry of resumes and cheery cover letters.
But most days go by without a single phone call. And around sundown, when he hears his neighbors returning home from work, Gwiazdowski
-- the former mayor of Hillsborough -- can't help but allow himself one tiny sigh of resignation.
"You sit there and you wonder, 'What am I doing wrong?'" said Gwiazdowski, who finds companionship in his 2-year-old golden retriever,
Charlie, until his wife returns from work.
"The worst moment is at the end of the day when it's 4:30 and you did everything you could, and the phone hasn't rung, the e-mails
haven't come through."
Gwiazdowski is one of a growing number of chronically unemployed workers in New Jersey and across the country who are struggling
to get through what is becoming one long, jobless nightmare -- even as the rest of the economy has begun to show signs of recovery.
Nationwide, 46 percent of the unemployed -- 6.7 million Americans -- have been without work for at least half a year, by far the
highest percentage recorded since the U.S. Labor Department began tracking the data in 1948.
In New Jersey, nearly 40 percent of the 416,000 unemployed workers last year fit that profile, up from about 20 percent in previous
years, according to the department, which provides only annual breakdowns for individual states. Most of them were unemployed for
more than a year.
But the repercussions of chronic unemployment go beyond the loss of a paycheck or the realization that one might never find the
same kind of job again. For many, the sinking feeling of joblessness -- with no end in sight -- can take a psychological toll, experts
say.
Across the state, mental health crisis units saw a 20 percent increase in demand last year as more residents reported suffering
from unemployment-related stress, according to the New Jersey Association of Mental Health Agencies.
"The longer the unemployment continues, the more impact it will have on their personal lives and mental health," said Shauna Moses,
the association's associate executive director. "There's stress in the marriage, with the kids, other family members, with friends."
And while a few continue to cling to optimism, even the toughest admit there are moments of despair: Fear of never finding work,
envy of employed friends and embarassment at having to tell acquaintances that, nope, still no luck.
"When they say, 'Hi Mayor,' I don't tell a lot of people I'm out of work -- I say I'm semi-retired," said Gwiazdowski, who maxed
out on unemployment benefits several months ago.
"They might think, 'Gee, what's wrong with him? Why can't he get a job?' It's a long story and maybe people really don't care
and now they want to get away from you."
SECOND TIME AROUND
Lynn Kafalas has been there before, too. After losing her computer training job in 2000, the East Hanover resident took four agonizing
years to find new work -- by then, she had refashioned herself into a web designer.
That not-too-distant experience is why Kafalas, 52, who was laid off again eight months ago, grows uneasier with each passing
day. Already, some of her old demons have returned, like loneliness, self-doubt and, worst of all, insomnia. At night, her mind races
to dissect the latest interview: What went wrong? What else should she be doing? And why won't even Barnes & Noble hire her?
"It's like putting a stopper on my life -- I can't move on," said Kafalas, who has given up karate lessons, vacations and regular
outings with friends. "Everything is about the interviews."
And while most of her friends have been supportive, a few have hinted to her that she is doing something wrong, or not doing enough.
The remarks always hit Kafalas with a pang.
In a recent study, researchers at Rutgers University found that the chronically unemployed are prone to high levels of stress,
anxiety, depression, loneliness and even substance abuse, which take a toll on their self-esteem and personal relationships.
"They're the forgotten group," said Carl Van Horn, director of the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers,
and a co-author of the report. "And the longer you are unemployed, the less likely you are to get a job."
Of the 900 unemployed workers first interviewed last August for the study, only one in 10 landed full-time work by March of this
year, and only half of those lucky few expressed satisfaction with their new jobs. Another one in 10 simply gave up searching.
Among those who were still unemployed, many struggled to make ends meet by borrowing from friends or family, turning to government
food stamps and forgoing health care, according to the study.
More than half said they avoided all social contact, while slightly less than half said they had lost touch with close friends.
Six in 10 said they had problems sleeping.
Kafalas says she deals with her chronic insomnia by hitting the gym for two hours almost every evening, lifting weights and pounding
the treadmill until she feels tired enough to fall asleep.
"Sometimes I forget what day it is. Is it Tuesday? And then I'll think of what TV show ran the night before," she said. "Waiting
is the toughest part."
AGE A FACTOR
Generally, the likelihood of long-term unemployment increases with age, experts say. A report by the National Employment Law Project
this month found that nearly half of those who were unemployed for six months or longer were at least 45 years old. Those between
16 and 24 made up just 14 percent.
Tell that to Adam Blank, 24, who has been living with his girlfriend and her parents at their Martinsville home since losing his
sales job at Best Buy a year and half ago.
Blank, who graduated from Rutgers with a major in communications, says he feels like a burden sometimes, especially since his
girlfriend, Tracy Rosen, 24, works full-time at a local nonprofit. He shows her family gratitude with small chores, like taking out
the garbage, washing dishes, sweeping floors and doing laundry.
Still, he often feels inadequate.
"All I'm doing on an almost daily basis is sitting around the house trying to keep myself from going stir-crazy," said Blank,
who dreams of starting a social media company.
When he is feeling particularly low, Blank said he turns to a tactic employed by prisoners of war in Vietnam: "They used to build
dream houses in their head to help keep their sanity. It's really just imagining a place I can call my own."
LESSONS LEARNED
Meanwhile, Gwiazdowski, ever the optimist, says unemployment has taught him a few things.
He has learned, for example, how to quickly assess an interviewer's age and play up or down his work experience accordingly --
he doesn't want to appear "threatening" to a potential employer who is younger. He has learned that by occasionally deleting and
reuploading his resume to job sites, his entry appears fresh.
"It's almost like a game," he said, laughing. "You are desperate, but you can't show it."
But there are days when he just can't find any humor in his predicament -- like when he finishes a great interview but receives
no offer, or when he hears a fellow job seeker finally found work and feels a slight twinge of jealousy.
"That's what I'm missing -- putting on that shirt and tie in the morning and going to work," he said.
The memory of getting dressed for work is still so vivid, Gwiazdowski says, that he has to believe another job is just around
the corner.
"You always have to hope that that morning when you get up, it's going to be the day," he said.
"Today is going to be the day that something is going to happen."
I collect from the state of iowa, was on tier I and when the gov't recessed without passing extension, iowa stopped paying
tier I claims that were already open, i was scheduled to be on tier I until july 15th, and its gone now, as a surprise, when i
tried to claim my week this week i was notified. SURPRISE, talk about stress.
This is terrible....just wait until RIF'd teachers hit the unemployment offices....but then, this is what NJ wanted...fired
teachers who are to blame for the worst recession our country has seen in 150 years...thanks GWB.....thanks Donald Rumsfeld......thanks
Dick Cheney....thanks Karl "Miss Piggy" Rove...and thank you Mr. Big Boy himself...Gov Krispy Kreame!
For readers who care about this nation's unemployed- Call your Senators to pass HR 4213, the "Extenders" bill. Unfortunately,
it does not add UI benefits weeks, however it DOES continue the emergency federal tiers of UI. If it does not pass this week many
of us are cut off at 26 wks. No tier 1, 2 -nothing.
The longer you are unemployed, the more you are effected by those factors.
Notable quotes:
"... The good news is that only a relatively small number of people are seriously affected by the stress of unemployment to the extent they need medical assistance. Most people don't get to the serious levels of stress, and much as they loathe being unemployed, they suffer few, and minor, ill effects. ..."
"... Worries about income, domestic problems, whatever, the list is as long as humanity. The result of stress is a strain on the nervous system, and these create the physical effects of the situation over time. The chemistry of stress is complex, but it can be rough on the hormonal system. ..."
"... Not at all surprisingly, people under stress experience strong emotions. It's a perfectly natural response to what can be quite intolerable emotional strains. It's fair to say that even normal situations are felt much more severely by people already under stress. Things that wouldn't normally even be issues become problems, and problems become serious problems. Relationships can suffer badly in these circumstances, and that, inevitably, produces further crises. Unfortunately for those affected, these are by now, at this stage, real crises. ..."
"... Some people are stubborn enough and tough enough mentally to control their emotions ruthlessly, and they do better under these conditions. Even that comes at a cost, and although under control, the stress remains a problem. ..."
"... One of the reasons anger management is now a growth industry is because of the growing need for assistance with severe stress over the last decade. This is a common situation, and help is available. ..."
"... Depression is universally hated by anyone who's ever had it. ..."
"... Very important: Do not, under any circumstances, try to use drugs or alcohol as a quick fix. They make it worse, over time, because they actually add stress. Some drugs can make things a lot worse, instantly, too, particularly the modern made-in-a-bathtub variety. They'll also destroy your liver, which doesn't help much, either. ..."
"... You don't have to live in a gym to get enough exercise for basic fitness. A few laps of the pool, a good walk, some basic aerobic exercises, you're talking about 30-45 minutes a day. It's not hard. ..."
It's almost impossible to describe the various psychological impacts, because there are so many. There are sometimes serious consequences,
including suicide, and, some would say worse, chronic depression.
There's not really a single cause and effect. It's a compound effect, and unemployment, by adding stress, affects people, often
badly.
The world doesn't need any more untrained psychologists, and we're not pretending to give medical advice. That's for professionals.
Everybody is different, and their problems are different. What we can do is give you an outline of the common problems, and what
you can do about them.
The good news is that only a relatively small number of people are seriously affected by the stress of unemployment to the extent
they need medical assistance. Most people don't get to the serious levels of stress, and much as they loathe being unemployed, they
suffer few, and minor, ill effects.
For others, there are a series of issues, and the big three are:
Stress
Anger, and other negative emotions
Depression
Stress
Stress is Stage One. It's a natural result of the situation. Worries about income, domestic problems, whatever, the list is as
long as humanity. The result of stress is a strain on the nervous system, and these create the physical effects of the situation
over time. The chemistry of stress is complex, but it can be rough on the hormonal system.
Over an extended period, the body's natural hormonal balances are affected, and this can lead to problems. These are actually
physical issues, but the effects are mental, and the first obvious effects are, naturally, emotional.
Anger, and other negative emotions
Not at all surprisingly, people under stress experience strong emotions. It's a perfectly natural response to what can be quite
intolerable emotional strains. It's fair to say that even normal situations are felt much more severely by people already under stress.
Things that wouldn't normally even be issues become problems, and problems become serious problems. Relationships can suffer badly in these circumstances, and that, inevitably, produces further crises. Unfortunately for those
affected, these are by now, at this stage, real crises.
If the actual situation was already bad, this mental state makes it a lot worse. Constant aggravation doesn't help people to keep
a sense of perspective. Clear thinking isn't easy when under constant stress.
Some people are stubborn enough and tough enough mentally to control their emotions ruthlessly, and they do better under these
conditions. Even that comes at a cost, and although under control, the stress remains a problem.
One of the reasons anger management is now a growth industry is because of the growing need for assistance with severe stress
over the last decade. This is a common situation, and help is available.
If you have reservations about seeking help, bear in mind it can't possibly be any worse than the problem.
Depression
Depression is universally hated by anyone who's ever had it. This is the next stage, and it's caused by hormonal imbalances which
affect serotonin. It's actually a physical problem, but it has mental effects which are sometimes devastating, and potentially life
threatening.
The common symptoms are:
Difficulty in focusing mentally, thoughts all over the place in no logical order
Fits of crying for no known reason
Illogical, or irrational patterns of thought and behavior
Sadness
Suicidal thinking
It's a disgusting experience. No level of obscenity could possibly describe it. Depression is misery on a level people wouldn't
conceive in a nightmare. At this stage the patient needs help, and getting it is actually relatively easy. It's convincing the person they need to do something about it that's difficult. Again, the mental state is working against the person. Even admitting there's a problem is hard for many people in this condition.
Generally speaking, a person who is trusted is the best person to tell anyone experiencing the onset of depression to seek help. Important: If you're experiencing any of those symptoms:
Get on the phone and make an appointment to see your doctor. It takes half an hour for a diagnosis, and you can be on your
way home with a cure in an hour. You don't have to suffer. The sooner you start to get yourself out of depression, the better.
Avoid any antidepressants with the so-called withdrawal side effects. They're not too popular with patients, and are under
some scrutiny. The normal antidepressants work well enough for most people.
Very important: Do not, under any circumstances, try to use drugs or alcohol as a quick fix. They make it worse, over time, because they actually add stress. Some drugs can make things a lot worse, instantly, too, particularly
the modern made-in-a-bathtub variety. They'll also destroy your liver, which doesn't help much, either.
Alcohol, in particular, makes depression much worse. Alcohol is a depressant, itself, and it's also a nasty chemical mix with
all those stress hormones.
If you've ever had alcohol problems, or seen someone with alcohol wrecking their lives, depression makes things about a million
times worse.
Just don't do it. Steer clear of any so-called stimulants, because they don't mix with antidepressants, either.
Unemployment and staying healthy
The above is what you need to know about the risks of unemployment to your health and mental well being.
These situations are avoidable.
Your best defense against the mental stresses and strains of unemployment, and their related problems is staying healthy.
We can promise you that is nothing less than the truth. The healthier you are, the better your defenses against stress, and the
more strength you have to cope with situations.
Basic health is actually pretty easy to achieve:
Diet
Eat real food, not junk, and make sure you're getting enough food. Your body can't work with resources it doesn't have. Good food
is a real asset, and you'll find you don't get tired as easily. You need the energy reserves.
Give yourself a good selection of food that you like, that's also worth eating.
The good news is that plain food is also reasonably cheap, and you can eat as much as you need. Basic meals are easy enough to
prepare, and as long as you're getting all the protein veg and minerals you need, you're pretty much covered.
You can also use a multivitamin cap, or broad spectrum supplements, to make sure you're getting all your trace elements. Also
make sure you're getting the benefits of your food by taking acidophilus or eating yogurt regularly.
Exercise
You don't have to live in a gym to get enough exercise for basic fitness. A few laps of the pool, a good walk, some basic aerobic
exercises, you're talking about 30-45 minutes a day. It's not hard.
Don't just sit and suffer
If anything's wrong, check it out when it starts, not six months later. Most medical conditions become serious when they're allowed
to get worse.
For unemployed people the added risk is also that they may prevent you getting that job, or going for interviews. If something's
causing you problems, get rid of it.
Nobody who's been through the blender of unemployment thinks it's fun.
Anyone who's really done it tough will tell you one thing:
Don't be a victim. Beat the problem, and you'll really appreciate the feeling.
For 25 years following the end of the Second World War, the global economy experienced an
unprecedented period of sustained growth. In the industrialized world, millions of people
joined the ranks of the middle class, and wealth inequality sunk to historic lows. After
decades of strife, labour and capital reached a relative ceasefire, and a mixed economy of
governmental macroeconomic guidance combined with private microeconomic initiative emerged.
Capital was able to make healthy profits, while much of the rising productivity of labour was
passed on in the form of higher wages. Governments made full employment a priority, and
increasingly accepted the responsibility of providing for the poor and disadvantaged. By the
late 1960s, governments were seriously considering implementing a basic income (also known as a
guaranteed annual income) and many policymakers thought that our biggest problem in another 20
years would be what to do with all our free time once the work week had been significantly
reduced.
This exuberant economic attitude was arguably reflected in the radical social
experimentation and revolution that emanated from universities now accessible to the majority,
and in the various movements for liberty and social justice erupting worldwide. For many, all
this social and economic optimism had one man to thank: the British political economist John
Maynard Keynes, who had emerged from the academic wilderness in the 1930s to play a leading
role in the design of the post-war economy at Bretton Woods, and whose focus on the
counter-cyclical stimulus of aggregate demand became the lynchpin of governmental economic
policy in subsequent decades. "There was a broad body of optimism that the 1950s and 1960s were
the product of Keynesian economic engineering. Indeed, there was no reason why the prosperity
of the international economy should not continue as long as appropriate Keynesian policies were
pursued " In 1971, even the conservative US president Richard Nixon would famously proclaim,
"We are all Keynesians now." The triumph of Keynesianism seemed complete.
Yet shortly after Nixon uttered these words, it all fell apart. That same year, Nixon ended the
era of dollar to gold convertibility, a move that many see as the beginning of the end for the
great post-war compromise between capital and labour.
Three years later, in the face of the
first oil embargo and other pressures, the economy nose-dived into the worst recession since
the Great Depression, never to rebound to earlier levels. Worse still, the theoretical
underpinnings of Keynesianism were called into question by the simultaneous appearance of high
inflation and high unemployment – a new phenomenon dubbed "stagflation". While
Keynesianism floundered for an explanation, new theories stepped into the breach; monetarism
and supply-side economics were the two most popular. While these new theories had distinctive
approaches, both shared the belief that big government – namely Keynesianism – was
the problem, and that the solution to stagflation was to restrict government intervention in
the economy to a strict inflation-fighting monetary policy (in the case of monetarism) or to
cut taxes to stimulate private investment (in the case of the supply-siders). This move away
from government intervention and the welfare state, and towards more emphasis on an unfettered
market, can been summed up by the term "neoliberalism". As the 1970s ran their course,
neoliberalism gradually took over from Keynesianism as the reigning economic orthodoxy, to be
consummated in the Anglo-Saxon world by the elections of Margaret Thatcher in the UK in 1979,
Ronald Reagan in the US in 1980, and Brian Mulroney in Canada in 1984.
The story told by the victors of this ideological battle – the neoliberals – is
that Keynesianism, despite its apparent success for 25 years, was in the end responsible for
the constellation of economic crises that descended on the industrialized countries during the
1970s, and that neoliberalism was the remedy. The shift from Keynesianism to neoliberalism was,
according to this story, the only rational option in the face of stagflation; as Thatcher
crisply remarked at the time, "There is no alternative."
I will call into question this story, by first examining the causes of the 1970s economic
malaise, and then looking at what interests were behind the promotion of neoliberalism as a
solution, how it gained political power, and how it was disseminated around the world. I will
fashion an alternate narrative, one in which Keynesianism was not to blame for stagflation, in
which the economic crises of the 1970s put the compromise between capital and labour under
severe strain and ultimately broke it, in which the capitalist class went on the offensive
partly because it feared for its very survival, and in which this class achieved its ends by
forming an alliance with social conservatives equally fearful in the face of the 1960s
counter-cultural revolution. The protagonist of this story will be the United States; as the
capitalist world's superpower, it was largely responsible for the crisis of the 1970s, it
suffered the worst from it, and it led the way down the new path of neoliberalism.
THE FALL OF KEYNESIANISM
As one of the principle fathers of neoliberalism, the economist Milton Friedman's indictment of
Keynesianism is of special relevance, for it is emblematic of the neoliberal attempt to –
quite successfully – pin the blame for chronic recession squarely on Keynesian shoulders.
Briefly, Friedman theorized that there was a so-called "natural" rate of unemployment, which
persisted in the long-term despite governmental attempts to stimulate demand through spending.
Running a budget deficit to pump money into the economy might bring down the unemployment rate
in the short term, he thought, but in the long run it would only create inflation, while
unemployment would inevitably return to its natural rate – now higher because of the
inflation. He essentially argued that fiscal policy was useless – even damaging –
and that if governments wanted to bring down the natural rate of unemployment, they should
focus on keeping inflation low through monetary policy, while loosening restrictions on markets
so that, for instance, wage levels could find their equilibrium point. This explanation for the
stagflation encountered in the 1970s proved quite convincing to many searching for answers to
the predicament, as well as enormously appealing to those who had always wished for a return to
unfettered markets, and played a key role in justifying the switch from Keynesianism to
neoliberalism, in its guise of monetarism.
How realistic is this account? Certainly, deficit financing played an important role in the
soaring inflation of the 1970s, but was this solely the result of spending on social programs,
such as under president Lyndon Johnson's Great Society initiative, or were there other causes
for deficit spending? The Vietnam War, combined with Johnson's unwillingness to raise taxes in
the face of rising war expenditures, caused the US Federal Reserve to print large amounts of
new dollars. Military spending is often seen as the most inflationary form of government
spending, because it puts new money into the economy without a corresponding increase in
output. The US had some leeway to get away with this rapid increase in the money supply, since
the dollar was the international reserve currency, but there was a limit to this, and the
explosive inflation of the 1970s was the result.
It must be noted that the US proved a dismal failure in its short-lived role as manager of the
world's monetary system. At Bretton Woods, it had been entrusted with the task of maintaining a
sound monetary system, through the gold exchange standard, just as Britain had previously.
Britain, being a trading nation, had had a strong interest in maintaining a sound international
monetary system, and had been effective (some would say too effective) at maintaining it. The
United States, on the other hand, traded much less, and consequentially took its
responsibilities much less seriously. It is easy to speculate about the justification made by
US officials as they printed irresponsible amounts money to pay for their war in Vietnam: they
surely saw themselves as defending the free world against the tyranny of communism, a cause for
which a little monetary instability, shouldered by the "free world" in general, was a small
price to pay.
The first cracks in the system started to show during the series of currency crises that struck
in the late 1960s. By the end of the decade, the dollars held outside the US were worth eight
times as much as the US had in gold reserves. In 1971, rather than saving the system by
devaluing the dollar, and fearing a run on US gold, Nixon ended the gold exchange standard. The
US had abused its power of seigniorage (as monarchs before had), but wouldn't escape without
paying a price.
The result was more inflation, as the dollar, now cut loose from the Bretton Woods standard of
$35 per ounce of gold, shed its inflated value. The lower dollar also raised the cost of
imports to the US consumer, further fueling domestic inflation. (The end of dollar
convertibility also brought with it more far-reaching consequences. The fixed exchange rates of
the 1950s and 60s were incompatible with free flows of capital. Yet taking the dollar off gold
led directly to floating exchange rates, which in turn paved the way for freer flows of capital
between countries. This development would later aid greatly in the furtherance of the
neoliberal agenda.)
As if these developments were not inflationary enough, the Yom Kippur War of October 1973 led
OPEC to restrict oil exports to Israel's allies, quadrupling oil prices virtually overnight.
Yet this was inflation of a different nature than the kind that had been building up in the
1960s; rather than being linked to excess demand and an overheated economy, it was driven by
increases in costs on the supply side and brought with it recessionary pressures. An increase
in the price of oil, being fundamental to so much of the economy, is "similar to the imposition
of a substantial sales tax. The price of the product goes up and consumers have less income
available to spend on other goods and services. The result is a bout of inflation, at least
temporarily, and sluggish economic expansion if not recession." This goes a long way towards
explaining the supposedly impossible coincidence of high inflation with high unemployment.
Yet there were other factors that also contributed to the so-called "misery index" (inflation
rate plus unemployment rate). The most basic of these was that governments tried repeatedly to
beat inflation by attacking perceived excess demand through restrictive monetary and fiscal
policies; when Nixon tried this strategy in 1970, it resulted in recession. His successor,
Gerald Ford, tried the same approach in 1974 – despite the fact that inflation at that
point was not being driven by excess demand, but by high costs on the supple side (namely oil).
Thus, poor governmental reaction to inflation caused recession and rising unemployment, while
failing to master inflation.
Another factor contributing to the slow-down of growth in the US economy was the end of the
privileged position it enjoyed as the only power to emerge from the Second World War relatively
unscathed. As Germany and Japan laboured to reconstruct their war-ravaged economies, the US
faced little competition. Yet by the end of the 1960s, the old Axis powers, now recast as
capitalist democracies but still economic powerhouses, were flexing their economic muscles
again. This, combined with increasing competition from newly industrialized countries in East
Asia and from other developing countries, cut into the robust economic growth the US had
enjoyed for two decades previously.
To sum up, inflation caused by first the Vietnam War and later the oil embargo (itself the
result of war in the Mideast), coupled with increasing competition to US business
internationally, along with the shock of the collapse of the Bretton Woods framework, were the
major factors that combined to create the "perfect storm" known as stagflation:
the stage was set for the deepest recession since the 1930s. The long period of post-war
expansion had at last come to an end; America and world capitalism entered a new phase of
turbulence which, amongst other things, threw economic policy and economics as a theory into a
state of flux.
AND THE RISE OF NEOLIBERALISM
In the previous section, I outlined the confluence of factors that led to the crisis of
stagflation in the 1970s. In the following section, I will describe the reaction to this crisis
– the how and why of neoliberalism's triumph as the new economic orthodoxy.
Different authors ascribe to different points in time when the balance decisively shifted from
Keynesianism to neoliberalism – some place the tipping point as early as the latter half
of the 1960s, others as late as the ascendancy of Thatcher and Reagan – but the midway
year 1974 seems as good as any. It was in this year that Gerald Ford came to the White House
with the slogan, "Whip Inflation Now" (WIN), declaring that inflation was public enemy number
one and that reduction in government spending was the chief means to that end. It was also in
this year that inflation peaked (at 11% – although it would later be surpassed by a
second peak of 13.5% in 1980), and that the "perfect storm" that had been building for years,
catalyzed by the energy crisis, finally unleashed its full fury on the economy. In declaring
war on inflation, Ford broke with the Keynesian bias of giving precedence to full employment;
whereas before inflation had been a tool to control unemployment, now unemployment was to be
used as a tool to control inflation:
The choice seemed to be stark: accept some inflation as the price of expansion and adapt
business and accounting practices accordingly, or pursue a firm deflationary policy even if
that meant accepting a higher level of unemployment than had been customary since the Second
World War.
In choosing the latter, Ford shattered the fragile compromise between labour and capital
and, favouring capital, took America on its first real steps towards neoliberalism.
Yet, as the crisis had gathered steam in the early 1970s, it was by no means clear which way
the winds would blow. It was well remembered that the last major economic crisis, in the 1930s,
had resulted in the socialist policies of the New Deal, and indeed in the 1970s labour again
called for more governmental intervention as the solution to the crisis. Capital, meanwhile, as
it suffered from reduced profits due to increased competition abroad and recession at home,
also saw the crisis as both an opportunity to advance its interests and as a threat to its
interests from an increasingly militant labour. "The upper classes had to move decisively if
they were to protect themselves from political and economic annihilation." The ceasefire
between labour and capital had held when times were good, but as soon as conditions started to
sour, both sides went on the offensive. It was to be one or the other.
Sensing both the opportunity and the threat presented by the crisis, the capitalist class put
aside its differences and united against the common enemy of labour. The 1970s marked the
beginning of the right-wing think tank, with corporate dollars founding such now well-known
beacons of neoliberal thought as the Heritage Foundation, the Hoover Institute, and the
American Enterprise Institute. Lobbying efforts, though such umbrella organizations as the
American Chamber of Commerce, the National Association of Manufacturers, and the Business
Roundtable (a group of CEOs founded in 1972), were massively ramped up; business schools at
Stanford and Harvard, established through corporation benefaction, " became centres of
neoliberal orthodoxy from the very moment they opened" ; and "the supposedly 'progressive'
campaign finance laws of 1971 [that] in effect legalized the financial corruption of politics,"
were followed by a series of Supreme Court decisions that established the right of corporations
to make unlimited donations to political parties. "During the 1970s, the political wing of the
nation's corporate sector staged one of the most remarkable campaigns in the pursuit of power
in recent history."
The ideology adopted by capital during this remarkable drive to win the minds of the political
leadership " had long been lurking in the wings of public policy." It emanated largely from the
writings of the Austrian economist Friedrich von Hayek, around whom a collection of admirers
(including Milton Friedman) called the Mont Pelerin Society had formed in 1947. This group's
ideas became known as neoliberalism because of its adherence to such neoclassical economists of
the latter half of the 19th Century as Alfred Marshall, William Stanley Jevons, and Leon
Walras. Hayek had argued presciently that it might take a generation before they could win the
battle of ideas; by the time he won the Nobel Prize for economics in 1974, followed by Friedman
two years later, victory was indeed close at hand.
Why did capital " [pluck] from the shadows of relative obscurity [this] particular doctrine
that went under the name of 'neoliberalism' "? Was it to save the world from the ravages of
Keynesian stagnation and to free people from the heavy hand of bloated government? This was
certainly part of the rhetoric used to sell neoliberalism to the public, but one need only look
at who benefited from neoliberalism to get a strong sense of whose interests it really served.
It was eventually quite successful in lowering inflation rates, and moderately successful in
lowering unemployment, but failed to revive economic growth to pre-1970s levels; meanwhile, it
resulted in levels of wealth inequality not seen since the 1920s in the US, stagnating real
wages, and a decreased quality of life for those reliant on government services. Alan Budd,
Thatcher's economic advisor, was candid about the real motives behind the neoliberal rhetoric
when he said, "The 1980s policies of attacking inflation by squeezing the economy and public
spending were a cover to bash the workers." Neoliberalism was capital's way of disciplining
labour through unemployment, creating what Marx called an "industrial reserve army" that would
break unions and drag wages down. Reagan facing down the air traffic controller's union, PATCO,
during a bitter strike in 1981, paralleled across the Atlantic by Thatcher's similarly tough
stance with the National Union of Mineworkers' year-long strike in 1984-85, was emblematic of
the new hostile approach to labour reintroduced to state policy by neoliberalism. In short,
neoliberalism was driven by class interests; it was the vehicle best suited " to restor[ing]
the power of economic elites." The true point of neoliberalism is revealed by the fact that
whenever the dictates of neoliberal theory conflicted with the interests of the capitalist
class, such as when it came to running massive budgetary deficits to pay for military spending
during peacetime, neoliberalism was discarded in favour of the interests of capital.
Before neoliberalism came to roost in the White House, however, there were several experiments
conducted in the periphery. It is revealing to note that the first nationwide imposition of
neoliberalism occurred under conditions of tyranny: Augusto Pinochet's Chile; it is likewise
fitting that neoliberalism drove from Chile its antithesis, the communism of Salvador Allende,
and that it was imposed through a US-backed coup. After the coup in 1973, Chile became a field
school for graduates from the economics department of the University of Chicago, where
disciples of Milton Friedman, who taught there, had formed their own monetarist/neoliberal
school of thought. These economists attempted to remake the Chilean economy into the ideal
neoliberal state (in the same way that US neoliberals are currently attempting in Iraq), a
transformation that likely would not have been possible without the Chilean military ensuring a
compliant labour. Despite lackluster economic results (particularly after the 1982 debt crisis
in Latin America), Chile served as a model to neoliberals who wanted the rich countries to
follow the same path.
There was another coup, of sorts – less known and less violent – that occurred in
New York City in 1975. In that year, the city went bankrupt, and the subsequent bailout came
with strict conditions attached, including budgetary rules and other institutional
restructuring. "This amounted to a coup by the financial institutions against the
democratically elected government of New York City, and it was every bit as effective as the
military coup that had occurred in Chile." It was "an early, perhaps decisive battle in a new
war," the purpose of which was "to show others that what is happening to New York could and in
some cases would happen to them." "The management of the New York fiscal crisis pioneered the
way for neoliberal practices both domestically under Reagan and internationally through the IMF
in the 1980s."
While coups, either military or financial, were possible against developing countries and
municipalities, neoliberalism would have to gain dominance in the US federal government through
slightly more democratic means. As noted earlier, the intense drive to power through lobbying,
think tanks, and academia convinced many in the elite of the virtues of neoliberalism, but
ultimately this ideology would have to sway masses of people to actually vote in favour of it.
In order to secure the broad base of support necessary to win elections, neoliberals formed an
alliance in the 1970s with the religious right (a move that has forever since confused the
terms "liberal" and "conservative"). While this significant segment of the American population
had previously been largely apolitical, the counter-cultural revolution of the late 1960s and
early 1970s provoked many of these "neoconservatives" to enter the political arena to oppose
the perceived moral corruption of American society – a movement that came to fruition
with preacher Jerry Fallwell's so-called "moral majority" in 1978. While neoliberals and
neoconservatives may seem like strange bedfellows, the coalition was likely facilitated by
religious fundamentalists' relative indifference towards the material, economic world;
according to their extremist Christian worldview, their material interests in this world would
be well worth sacrificing to secure the spiritual interests of their nation in the next world.
Furthermore, both religious and economic fundamentalists must have found a comforting
familiarity in each other's simplistic extremism (the "invisible hand" of the neoliberals' free
market is eerily similar to the Christians' God in its omnipotence, omnipresence, and
inscrutability).
The Republican Party gathered under its banner these religious reactionaries, as well as those
non-religious (largely white, heterosexual, male, and working-class) who simply feared the
growing liberation of blacks, gays, and women, and who felt threatened by affirmative action,
the emerging welfare state, and the Soviet Union. "Not for the first time, nor, it is to be
feared, for the last time in history had a social group been persuaded to vote against its
material, economic, and class interests for cultural, nationalist, and religious reasons." It
was this alliance of social fear and economic opportunism that swept arch-neoliberal Ronald
Reagan to the White House in 1980 – " a turning point in post-war American economic and
social history." After a decade-long campaign, the neoliberals had come to Washington.
Of course, the crusade to reshape society along neoliberal ideals was far from won; Reagan
faced a Democratic Congress, and was often forced to govern more pragmatically than
ideologically when his supply-side policies failed. As Margaret Thatcher said, "Economics are
the method, but the object is to change the soul," and it takes time to change people's
souls.
There was also still a whole world to convert to the gospel of market liberalization. The
crisis of stagflation that had opened the door to neoliberal ideas in the US had also created
financial incentives for the dissemination of neoliberalism to other countries. With the impact
of the first oil crisis flooding New York investment banks with petrodollars, and a depressed
economy at home offering fewer places to spend them, the banks poured the money into developing
countries. This created pressure on the US government to pry open new markets for investment,
as well as to protect the growing investments overseas – helping to bring US-bred
neoliberalism to foreign shores.
Yet these pressures were only a taste of what was to come; after the Iranian revolution in 1979
caused oil prices to suddenly double, inflation in the US returned with a vengeance. This in
turn led the US Federal Reserve, under its new neoliberal-minded chairman Paul Volcker, to
drastically raise interest rates. This "Volcker shock", resulting in nominal interest rates
close to 20% by 1981, coming on the heels of the profligate lending of petrodollars during the
1970s, played a major part in the debt crisis that descended on the developing world during the
1980s. As countries defaulted on their debts, they were driven into the arms of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF), which, after what economist Joseph Stiglitz described as a
"purge" of Keynesians in 1982, became a center " for the propagation and enforcement of 'free
market fundamentalism' and neoliberal orthodoxy." Mexico, after its debt default of 1982-84,
became one of the first countries to submit to neoliberal reforms in exchange for debt
rescheduling, thus " beginning the long era of structural adjustment."
Many of the IMF economists who designed these Structural Adjustment Programs (SAPs), as well as
those who staffed the World Bank and the finance departments of many developing countries, were
trained at the top US research universities, which by 1990 were dominated by neoliberal ideas
– providing yet another avenue by which neoliberalism spread from the US to other parts
of the world. By the mid-1990s, the process of neoliberal market liberalization (under the
supervision of the World Trade Organization (WTO)) came to be known as the "Washington
Consensus", in recognition of the origins of this ideological revolution.
THE REVOLUTION CONTINUES
Some authors have called neoliberalism the antithesis to Keynesianism , yet its real opposite
is communism; Keynesianism represented a compromise between the two – a middle way. Yet
this fragile balance did not survive the economic crucible of the 1970s. Neoliberalism's
strategic political alliance with neoconservatism can be seen as a natural reaction to the
rapid changes that had unfolded during the 1950s and 60s in both the US economy (with the
growth of the welfare state) and society (with the rise of the counter-cultural revolution); at
the same time, it can also be seen as an opportunist power grab by the capitalist class during
a period of uncertainty about the foundations of the old order. The fear of communism –
captured succinctly in the title of Hayek's famous work, The Road to Serfdom – drove
neoliberals to the opposite extreme: the belief in the superiority of the unfettered
marketplace as the guiding principle to human civilization. Neoliberalism, therefore,
represents an extremist ideology that, if carried through to its end, will likely end up being
as destructive to the societies it touches as extremist socialism was to the former Soviet
bloc.
Although the neoliberal revolution is still winning many political battles, such as the growing
attack on Medicare in Canada or on Social Security in the United States, evidence of an
emerging counter-movement (such as the poorly named "anti-globalization movement" –
anti-neoliberalization would be more apt) is growing. As Karl Polanyi described in his classic,
The Great Transformation, the industrialization and economic liberalization of the 19th Century
resulted in a reaction from society for more governmental intervention to protect people and
communities from the destructive effects of unfettered markets. It is highly likely that we are
now witnessing the first stages of a similar reaction to the latest round of rapid
technological change and market liberalization. Hopefully, this reaction will lead to a society
that better balances capitalism's creative destruction with the needs of humans and their
communities for continuity and security.
Copyright Sean Butler 2006
Written for an Intro to Political Economy class at Carleton University in 2006
"It's barbarism. I see it coming masqueraded under lawless alliances and predetermined
enslavements. It may not be about Hitler's furnaces, but about the methodical and
quasi-scientific subjugation of Man. His absolute humiliation. His disgrace"
Odysseas Elytis, Greek poet, in a press conference on the occasion of receiving the Nobel
Prize (1979)
"During my whole career at Goldman Sachs - 1967 to 1991 - I never owned a foreign stock or emerging market bonds. Now I have
hundreds of millions of dollars in Russia, Brazil, Argentina and Chile, and I worry constantly about the dollar-yen rate. Every
night before I go to bed I call in for the dollar-yen quote, and to find out what the Nikkei is doing and what the Hang Seng Index
is doing. We have bets in all these markets. Right now Paul [one of my traders] is long [on] the Canadian dollar. We have bets all
over the place. I would not have worried about any of these twenty years ago. Now I have to worry about all of them."
Economic globalization is probably the most fundamental transformation of the world's political and economic arrangements since
the Industrial Revolution. Decisions made in one part of the world more and more affect people and communities elsewhere in the
world. Sometimes the consequences of globalization are positive, liberating inventive and entrepreneurial talents and accelerating
the pace of sustainable development. But at other times they are negative, as when many people, especially in less-developed countries,
are left behind without a social safety net. Globalization undermines the ability of the nation to tax and to regulate its own economy.
This weakens the power of sovereign nations relative to that of large transnational corporations and distorts how social and economic
priorities are chosen.
Economic globalization is most often associated with rapid growth in the flow of goods and services across international borders.
Indeed, the economic "openness" of a nation is often measured by the value of its exports, imports, or their sum when compared to
the size of its economy. Economic globalization also involves large investments from outside each nation, often by transnational
corporations. These corporations often combine technology and know-how with their investments that enhance the productive capacity
of a nation. Previous position papers of the Mobilization, contained in Speaking of Religion & Politics: The Progressive Church
Tackles Hot Topics2, have dealt with globalization primarily in these terms.
But international trade and investment are only part of the openness that has come to be called globalization. Another part,
and arguably the most important, is the quickening flow of financial assets internationally. While a small portion of this flow
is directly associated with the "real" economy of production and exchange, its vast majority is composed of trades in the "paper"
economy of short-term financial markets. This paper economy is enormous: The value of global financial securities greatly exceeds
the value of annual world output of goods and services. Moreover, the paper economy often contributes to crises in the real economy.
Thus it is important to the well being of humanity and the planet as a whole, yet it is little understood by most people. This essay
undertakes to provide a basic understanding of this paper economy, especially as its more speculative features have multiplied during
the last two or three decades, so that Christians and others concerned about what is happening in our world can join in an intelligent
discussion of how the harmful consequences of financial markets can be controlled.
Financial markets 101
To better understand this paper economy, one first needs to know something about foreign exchange markets, international money
markets, and "external" financial markets.
In an open economy, domestic residents often engage in international transactions. American car dealers, for example, buy Japanese
Toyotas and Datsuns, while German computer companies sell electronic notebooks to Mexican businessmen. Similarly, Australian mutual
funds invest in the shares of companies all over the world, while the treasurer of a Canadian transnational corporation parks idle
cash in 90-day Bank of England notes. Most of these transactions require one or more participants to acquire a foreign currency.
If an American buys a Toyota and pays the Japanese Toyota dealer in dollars, for example, the latter will have to exchange the dollars
for yens in order to have the local currency with which to pay his workers and local suppliers.
The foreign exchange market is the market in which national currencies are traded. As in any market, a price must exist at which
trade can occur. An exchange rate is the price of a unit of domestic currency in terms of a foreign currency. Thus, if the exchange
rate of the dollar in terms of the Japanese yen increases, we say the dollar has depreciated and the yen has appreciated. Similarly,
a decrease in the dollar/yen exchange rate would imply an appreciation of the dollar and a depreciation of the yen.
Foreign exchange markets can be classified as spot markets and forward markets. In spot markets currencies are bought and sold
for immediate delivery and payment. In forward markets, currencies are bought or sold for future delivery and payment. A U.S. music
company, say, enters into a contract to buy British records for delivery in 30 days. To guard against the possibility of the dollar/pound
exchange rate increasing in the meantime, the company buys pounds forward, for delivery in 30 days, at the corresponding forward
exchange rate quoted today. This is called hedging.
Of course, there has to be a counterpart to the music company's forward purchase of pounds. Who is the seller of those pounds?
The immediate seller would be a commercial bank, as in the spot market. But the bank only acts as an intermediary. The ultimate
seller of forward pounds may be another hedger, like the music company, but with a position just its opposite. Suppose, for example,
that an American firm or individual has invested in 30-day British securities that it wants to convert back into dollars after the
end of 30 days. The investor may decide to sell the pound proceeds forward in order to assure itself of the rate at which the pounds
are to be converted back into dollars after 30 days.
Another type of investor may be providing the forward contract bought by the music company. This is the speculator, who attempts
to profit from changes in exchange rates. Depending on their expectations, speculators may enter the forward market either as sellers
or as buyers of forward exchange. In this particular case, the speculator may have reason to believe that the dollar/pound exchange
rate will decrease in the next 30 days, permitting him to obtain the promised pounds at a lower price in the spot market 30 days
hence.
The main instruments of foreign exchange transactions include electronic bank deposit transfers and bank drafts, bills of exchange,
and a whole array of other short-term instruments expressed in terms of foreign currency. Thus, foreign exchange transactions do
not generally involve a physical exchange of currencies across borders. They generally involve only changes in debits and credits
at different banks in different countries. Very large banks in the main financial centers such as New York, London, Brussels and
Zurich, account for most foreign exchange transactions. Local banks can provide foreign exchange by purchasing it in turn from major
banks.
Although the foreign exchange market is dispersed in many cities and countries, it is unified by keen competition among the highly
sophisticated market participants. A powerful force keeping exchange rate quotations in different places in line with each other
is the search on the part of market participants for foreign exchange arbitrage opportunities. Arbitrage is the simultaneous purchase
and sale of a commodity or financial asset in different markets with the purpose of obtaining a profit from the differential between
the buying and selling price.
When foreign exchange is acquired in order to engage in international transactions involving the purchase or sale of goods and
services, it is said that international trade has taken place in the real economy. When international transactions involve the purchase
or sale of financial assets, they are referred to as international financial transactions. They constitute the paper economy.
Financial markets are commonly classified as capital markets or money markets. Capital markets deal in financial claims that
reach more than one year into the future. Such claims include shares of stock, bonds, and long-term loans, among others. Money markets,
on the other hand, deal in short-term claims, with maturities of less than one year. These include marketable government securities
(like Treasury bills), large-denomination certificates of deposit issued by banks, commercial paper (representing short-term corporate
debt), money market funds, and many other kinds of short-term, highly liquid (easily transferable) financial instruments. It is
these short-term money market securities that account for most of the instability in the global paper economy.
Buying or selling a money market security internationally involves the same kind of foreign exchange risk that plagues buyers
or sellers of merchandise internationally. If one wishes to guard against the possibility of an increase or decrease in the foreign
exchange rate, one can insure against such fluctuations by "covering" in the forward market. By the same token, the decision about
whether to own domestic or foreign money market securities is not simply a comparison of the rates of interest paid on otherwise
comparable securities, because one must also take into account the gain (or loss) from purchasing foreign currency spot and selling
it forward. Thus, choosing the security with the highest return does not necessarily imply the one with the highest interest rate.
People who trade in international money markets, moreover, need to take into account many other variables, including the costs
of gathering and processing information, transaction costs, the possibility of government intervention and regulation, other forms
of political risk, and the inability to make direct comparisons of alternative assets. Speculating in international money markets
is a risky proposition.
International money markets involve assets denominated in different currencies. External financial markets involve assets denominated
in the same currency but issued in different political jurisdictions. Eurodollars, for example, are dollar deposits held outside
the United States (offshore), such as dollar deposits in London, Zurich, or even Singapore banks. The deposits may be in banks owned
locally or in the offshore banking subsidiaries of U.S. banks. Deutsche mark deposits in London banks or pound sterling deposits
in Amsterdam banks also are examples of external deposits. They are referred to as eurocurrency deposits. (The advent of a new common
currency in the European Community - the Euro - will require the development of new nomenclature for external financial markets)
External banking activities are a segment of the wholesale international money market. The vast majority of eurocurrency transactions
fall in the above $1 million value range, frequently reaching the hundreds of millions (or even billion) dollar value. Accordingly,
the customers of eurobanks are almost exclusively large organizations, including multinational corporations, government entities,
hedge funds, and international organizations, as well as eurobanks themselves. Like domestic banks, eurobanks that have excess reserves
may make loans denominated in eurocurrencies, expanding the supply of eurocurrency deposits. The eurocurrency market funnels funds
from lending countries to borrowing countries. Thus, it performs an important function as global financial intermediator.
Early history
The origins of what Karl Polanyi3 called haute finance can be traced to Renaissance Italy,
where as early as 1422 there were seventy-two bankers or bill-brokers in or near the Mecato Vecchio of Florence.4
Many combined trade with purely financial business. By the middle of the fifteenth century, the Medici of Florence had opened branches
in Bruges, London and Avignon, both as a means of financing international trade and as a way of marketing new kinds of financial
assets. Many banking terms and practices still in use today originated in the burgeoning financial centers of Renaissance Europe.
By the early seventeenth century, the Dutch and East India Companies began issuing shares to the public in order to fund imperial
enterprises closely linked to Holland and Britain. Their shares were made freely transferable, permitting development of a secondary
financial market for claims to future income. Amsterdam opened a stock exchange in 1611, and shortly thereafter, the British government
began issuing lottery tickets, an early form of government bonds, to finance colonial expansion, wars and other major areas of state
expenditure. A lively secondary market in these financial instruments also emerged.5
Throughout these early years, financial markets were anything but riskless and stable. Consider the famous Dutch tulip mania
of 1630, for example. This speculative bubble saw prices of tulip bulbs reach what seemed like absurd levels, yet "the rage among
the Dutch to possess them [tulips] was so great that the ordinary industry of the country was neglected." Some investors in Britain
and France shared this "irrational exuberance," though it was centered mostly in Holland. Then, not unlike speculative bubbles of
more recent vintage, prices crashed6, pushing the economy into a depression and leaving many
investors angry and confused.
Paris developed into an early financial center in the eighteenth century, but the Revolution of 1789 dissipated its power. The
New York Stock Exchange was formally organized in 1792 and the official London Stock Exchange opened in 1802. The expansion westward
of the railroads in the U.S. offered the financial community opportunity to sell railway shares and bonds that quickly became dominant
in the financial markets. Indeed, the bond markets of London, Paris, Berlin, and Amsterdam were vehicles for collecting massive
amounts of European savings and transferring it at higher returns to the emerging markets of the U.S., Canada, Australia, Latin
America and Russia in the century preceding World War I.
Forward markets soon developed, especially in the U.S., in order to counter the impact of long distances and unpredictable weather.
As capital and money markets expanded, other new financial instruments came into use. Joint stock companies were formed, enabled
by legislation that clarified the distinction between the owners and managers of corporations. This, in turn, helped stimulate the
growth of the American stock market in the late nineteenth century. To be sure, financial markets did not grow continuously in the
nineteenth century. Lending to the emerging markets was interrupted by defaults in the 1820s, 1850s, 1870s and 1890s, but each wave
of default was confined to a relatively small number of countries, permitting growth of financial flows to resume.7
In the four decades leading up to World War I, a truly worldwide economy was forged for the first time, extending from the core
of Western Europe and the U.S. to latecomers in Eastern Europe and Latin America and even to the countries supplying raw materials
on the periphery. Central to this expansion of trade and investment was an expanding system of finance that girded the globe. The
amount was enormous: between 1870 and 1914 something like $30 billion,8 the equivalent in
2002 dollars of $550 billion, was transferred to recipient countries, in a world economy perhaps one-twelfth as large as today's.
During this "Gilded Age" of haute finance, the risks of participating in international trade and investment were generously shared
with governments and the banking system. The reason is that foreign exchange rates were kept reasonably stable by the commitment
of most governments to the "high" gold standard. In this way, businesses and individuals engaging in international transactions
were reasonably certain that the value of their contracts was not going to change before they matured. Their exchange risk was shared
with government by its willingness to buy or sell gold in order to keep the exchange rate constant. Because of this assurance, financial
flows were reasonably free of regulation.
They were not immune from crises, however. When the sources of financial capital temporarily dried up, capital-importing countries
occasionally found they could not expand export earnings sufficiently to avoid suspending interest payments on their debts or abandoning
gold parity. On two occasions, the United States faced this possibility. The first was in 1893, when it switched in a sharp economic
downturn to bimetallism (which caused William Jennings Bryan to denounce the "cross of gold"), and the second was in 1907, which
led to the creation of the Federal Reserve System, handing to the government the function of lender of last resort previously carried
out by Wall Street banks under the tutelage of J. Pierpont Morgan.
In his magisterial book The Great Transformation, Karl Polanyi reflected on the pervasive influence of haute finance on the policies
of nations even in this "Gilded Age." The globalising financial markets and the gold standard, according to Polanyi, left very little
room for states, especially smaller ones, to adopt monetary and fiscal policies independent of the new international order. "Loans,
and the renewal of loans, hinged upon credit, and credit upon good behavior. Since, under constitutional government ..., behavior
is reflected in the budget and the external value of the currency cannot be detached from the appreciation of the budget, debtor
governments were well advised to watch their exchanges carefully and to avoid policies which might reflect upon the soundness of
budget positions." Thus, even one hundred years ago the then-dominant world power, Great Britain, speaking as it did so often through
the voice of the City of London, "prevailed by the timely pull of a thread in the international monetary network.9
Following World War I, the United States emerged not merely as a creditor country but as the primary source of new international
financial flows. At first, the principal borrowers were the national governments of the stronger countries, but as the boom in security
underwriting developed in the U.S, numerous obscure provinces, departments and municipalities found it possible to sell their bonds
to American investors.10 Just as domestic construction, land, and equity markets went through
speculative rises in the 1920s, so too did the U.S. experience a speculative surge in foreign investment. In the aftermath of successive
defaults by foreign debtors in 1932, the Senate Committee on Banking and Currency concluded:
The record of the activities of investment bankers in the flotation of foreign securities is one of the most scandalous chapters
in the history of American investment banking. The sale of these foreign issues was characterized by practices and abuses that violated
the most elementary principles of business ethics.11
Speculation in the stock markets leading up to 1929 offers still another window on the instability of short-term financial flows.
A speculative market can be defined as one in which prices move in response to the balance of opinion regarding the future movement
of prices rather than responding normally to changes in the demand for and supply of whatever is priced. Helped by the willingness
of Wall Street to allow people to buy stocks on margin, people were only too ready to bet prices would rise as long as others thought
so too. Day after day and month after month the price of stocks went up in 1927. The gains by later standards were not large, but
they had an aspect of great reliability. Then in 1928, the nature of the boom changed. "The mass escape into make-believe, so much
a part of the true speculative orgy, started in earnest.12
Following World War I, the gold standard itself took on new form. Nations were allowed to hold their international reserves in
either gold or foreign exchange. This worked for a while in the 1920s, but as speculation mounted and balances of payments disequilibria
grew, fears of devaluation led central banks to try to replace their foreign-exchange holdings with specie in a "scramble for gold."
The worldwide result of these shifts in central bank portfolios was an overall contraction of the supply of money and credit that
sapped aggregate demand and forced prices to fall and output levels to shrink. Thus, it can be argued - persuasively in our view
- that the Great Depression of the 1930s was as much, if not more, the result of mismanagement of money and credit as it was the
result of protectionist policies. Protectionist policies were more likely the result of slowed growth and stalled trade. Countries
that broke with the gold-exchange standard early, such as Britain in 1931, and pursued more expansionary monetary policies fared
somewhat better.
The Bretton Woods system
During the darkest days of World War II, a radically new economic architecture was designed for the postwar world at a New Hampshire
ski resort called Bretton Woods. With the competitive devaluation and protectionist policies of the 1930s still fresh in their minds,
the mostly British and American delegates to the conference wanted most of all to design a system with fixed exchange rates that
did not rely on national gold hoards to keep exchange rates stable. They decided to depend instead on strict controls of international
financial movements. In this way, they hoped to allow countries to pursue full-employment policies through appropriate monetary
(money and credit) and fiscal (tax and spending) policies without some of the anxieties associated with open financial markets.
The role of monetary and financial stabilizer was given to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was provided with modest
funds to assist nations to adjust imbalances in their external payments obligations. The International Bank for Reconstruction and
Development (IBRD, later the World Bank) assumed the task of helping to finance post-war reconstruction.13
The IMF as it emerged from Bretton Woods had inadequate reserves to advance money for the long periods that many countries require
for "soft-landings" from big current-account deficits. It would make only short-term loans. To make sure that borrowing nations
were constrained, "conditionality" attached to IMF loans became standard practice, even in the early years of the Fund's operation.
Policy limitations and "performance targets" tied to credit lines advanced under "standby agreements" began in the middle 1950s
and were universal by the 1960s, long before the notions of "stabilization" and "structural adjustment" came into common parlance.
The Bretton Woods agreement also imposed a foreign exchange standard by which exchange rates between major currencies were fixed
in terms of the dollar, and the value of the dollar was tied to gold at a U.S. guaranteed price of thirty-five dollars per ounce.
By devising a system that controlled financial movements and assisted with the adjustment of countries' balances of payments, the
new system succeeded in keeping exchange rates remarkably stable. They were changed only very occasionally, e.g., as when the value
of sterling relative to the dollar was reduced in 1949 and again in 1966. This meant that companies doing business abroad did not
need to worry constantly about the risk of exchanging one currency for another.
Among the reasons for this remarkable stability was the willingness of the central banks of other countries to hold an increasing
proportion of their official reserves in the form of U.S. dollars. It was an essential part of the system that the dollars held
by other countries would be seen as IOUs backed by the U.S. offer to exchange them for gold at a fixed pre-war price. But as the
balance-of-payments of the U.S. moved more deeply into deficits in the 1960s, there were more and more U.S. dollars held by other
countries, and this so-called "dollar overhang" became disturbingly large.15 General de
Gaulle called it "the exorbitant privilege," meaning that the Americans were paying their bills - for defense spending to fight
the Vietnam War among other things - with IOUs instead of real resources in the form of exports of goods and services.
Strict control over financial movements began to weaken as early as the 1950s, when the first eurodollar (later eurocurrency)
deposits were made in London. At first a trickle, limited originally to Europe, these offshore banking operations soon expanded
worldwide. The American "Interest Equalization Tax" (IET) instituted in 1963 raised the costs to banks of lending offshore from
their domestic branches.16 The higher external rates led dollar depositors such as foreign
corporations to switch their funds from onshore U.S. institutions to eurobanks. Thus, the real effect of the IET was to encourage
the dollar to follow the foreigners abroad, rather than the other way around. Eurobanks paid higher interest rates on deposits and
loaned eurocurrencies at lower rates than U.S. banks could at home. Still another large inflow of eurodeposits occurred in 1973-74
as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) began "recycling" their surplus dollar earnings through eurobanks. Because
of their existence, a country such as Brazil could arrange within a reasonably regulation-free environment to obtain multimillion-dollar
loans from a consortium of offshore American, German and Japanese banks and thereby finance its oil imports. Net eurocurrency deposit
liabilities that amounted to around $10 billion in the mid-1960s, grew to $500 billion by 1980.
These eurocurrency transactions taught the players in financial markets how to shift their deposits, loans, and investments from
one currency to another whenever exchange rates or interest rates were thought to be ready to change. Even the ability of central
banks to regulate the supply of money and credit was undermined by the readiness of commercial banks to borrow and lend offshore.
Hence, the effectiveness of regulatory mechanisms that had been put in place to implement the Bretton Woods agreement - interest
rate ceilings, lending limits, portfolio restrictions, reserve and liquidity requirements - gradually eroded as offshore transactions
started to balloon.
The world economy developed at unprecedented rates during the roughly twenty-five years immediately following World War II. Growth
and employment rates during these years were at historic highs in most countries. Productivity also advanced rapidly in most developing
countries as well as in the technological leaders. These facts suggest that the system devised at Bretton Woods worked reasonably
well, despite occasional adjustments. To be sure, it helped to sow the seeds of its own destruction by failing to retain operational
control of international financial flows. But the twenty-five years of its survival leading up to August 15, 1971, when President
Nixon closed the gold window, have nonetheless come to be called by some economic historians the "Golden Years."
Controlling private risk
Fixed exchange rates did not last long after the U.S. stopped exchanging gold for claims on the dollar held by foreign central
banks. The pound sterling was allowed to float against the dollar in July, 1972. Japan set the yen free to float in February, 1973,
and most European currencies followed suit shortly thereafter. The Bretton Woods gold-dollar system was doomed.
The fact that exchange rates no longer were fixed meant that companies doing business in different countries had to cope with
the day-to-day shifts in the dollar's rate of exchange with other currencies. The risks of unexpected changes in the value of international
contracts suddenly had shifted from the public to the private sector. Corporate finance officers now had to hedge against possible
exchange losses by buying a currency forward and investing the equivalent in the short-term money market, or by investing in the
eurocurrency market. The corporations' banks, in turn, tried to match each foreign currency transaction with another contrary transaction
in order not to leave each of the banks exposed to foreign exchange risk overnight. Since no single bank was likely to balance its
foreign exchange positions exactly, the need arose to swap deposits in different currencies in order to match corporate hedging
transactions and to square the bank's books.
The price of this forward cover on inter-bank transactions - that is to say, the premium or discount on a currency's spot value
- has tended to accord with the differences between interest-rates offered for eurocurrency deposits in different currencies. This
is the connection between the foreign exchange market and the short-term credit markets, between exchange rates and interest rates.
Whenever exchange rates move up or down, therefore, their influence is immediately transmitted through the eurocurrency markets
to the credit markets.
It is this scramble to avoid private risk that accounted for the dramatic rise in international financial movements following
the demise of the Bretton Woods system. By 1973, daily foreign exchange trading around the world varied between $10 and $20 billion
per day. This amount was approximately twice the value of world trade at the time. Bank of International Settlements data suggests
that the daily average of foreign exchange trading had climbed by 1980 to about $80 billion, and that the ratio between foreign
exchange trading and international trade was more nearly ten to one. The data for 1992 was $880 billion and fifty to one, respectively;
for 1995, $l,260 billion and seventy to one; and for 2000, almost $1,800 and ninety to one.
There is very little doubt, therefore, that the lion's share of international financial flows is relatively short-run. Indeed,
about eighty percent of foreign exchange transactions are reversed in less than seven business days. Only a very small proportion
is used to finance international trade and direct foreign investment. The vast majority must be used with the expectation of gain
or to avoid losses that may result from changes in the value of financial assets. In general terms, they are speculative, made in
hope of capital gain or to hedge against potential capital loss, or to seek the gains of arbitrage based on slight differences in
rates of return in different financial centers.
Foreign exchange markets and markets for money and credit seem remote and abstract to most people. This section introduces the
real institutions that operate these markets and assesses the nature of their power.
Commercial banks They take deposits, lend money, and create credit to the extent their capitalization allows. In
Europe, they tend to combine commercial and investment banking services, but in the U.S. and Japan they are still kept at least
partially separate by regulation. The foreign exchange trading facilities of the largest commercial banks, e.g. Citibank and
J.P.Morgan/Chase in the U.S., tend to dominate the market. The banking industry as a whole represents the largest pool of world
financial capital.
Investment banks They facilitate international payments, manage new issues of stocks and bonds, advise on mergers
and acquisitions in all industries, and engage in securities and foreign exchange trading as allowed by law. Investment banks
(previously called merchant banks in the U.K.) have specialized in particular kinds of derivative products. Derivatives are
financial contracts whose value is based upon the value of other underlying financial assets such as stocks, bonds, mortgages
or foreign exchange.
Brokerage houses They handle the bulk of stock exchange transactions and a major part of foreign exchange transactions.
Investment banks recently have acquired several of the main brokerage houses in the U.S. The development of investor-friendly
methods of buying and selling securities, e.g., over-the-counter markets and electronic brokerage, also have diminished the
role of independent brokerage houses.
Mutual funds They are pools of funds provided by clients that are run by professional investment managers. These
collective investments are held in portfolios with various mixes of money-market instruments, bonds and equities. Mutual funds
account for the second largest pool of global financial capital.
Hedge funds They resemble mutual funds, but they are much less restricted in investment activities and techniques.
Their customers are high net-worth individuals and large institutional investors. They specialize in complex financial instruments
and tend to take significant speculative positions, especially on expected future changes in macroeconomic conditions. They
exploit arbitrage opportunities embedded in the relative prices of related securities. They frequent offshore centers and tax
havens.
Tax havens Offshore centers and tax havens shelter perhaps $10 trillion of wealth from capital and income taxation.
The British Virgin Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, Dublin and Luxembourg are among the most important. Many
hedge funds are registered there.
Wealthy individuals They are an important source of funds, as many of them invest their liquid funds in financial
markets. They account for about eighty percent of hedge fund investors.
Private pension funds They function like annuities, receiving funds today in return for a promise to pay future benefits.
With large pools of funds to invest, they tend to depend on investment banks, mutual funds or hedge funds to supervise placement
of their assets in global financial markets.
Insurance companies They pool risks by selling protection against the loss of property, income, or life. Since the
risks they insure have various durations, they call for varied investment strategies. A portion of their funds is invested in
short-term financial instruments, often through mutual and hedge funds.
Transnational corporations They produce and sell goods and services in a number of countries. Their finance departments
seek the best ways to raise and transfer funds across borders, and administer the transfer prices18
of international trade conducted within the corporation. Some even have in-house corporate banks.
According to recent work by political scientists, the power of these financial actors is based in part on a complicated "process
of multiplication" of loans, assets and transactions. Many investors in financial markets buy financial instruments on very thin
margins, based on loans obtained by pledging the assets as collateral. This is called "leverage" in the jargon of financial markets.
In turn, the borrowed funds are invested in other financial assets, multiplying the demand for credit and financial assets. As demand
rises, more sophisticated financial assets are invented, including many forms of financial derivatives. A major portion of the accumulated
debt remains serviceable only as long as the prices of most assets will rise or at least remain relatively stable. If prices turn
down, they easily can lead to a chain-reaction. If investors respond instinctively like a herd, they will bring a far-reaching collapse
that constitutes a crisis.
As the flow of financial assets climbs, some bankers, brokers, and managers of financial institutions become prominent players
in the competition for investor dollars. Some become known for picking profitable places to invest and for promoting their selections
successfully. This can influence markets if people have confidence in their advice. A notorious example of the influence of prominent
players was the attack on British sterling in 1992 by George Soros' Quantum Fund. Believing that sterling was overvalued, the Fund
quietly established credit lines that allowed it to borrow $15 billion worth of sterling and sell it for dollars at the then "overvalued"
price. Its purpose, of course, was to pay back the loan with cheaper pounds after they had depreciated. Having gone long on dollars
and short on sterling, Soros decided to speak up noisily. He publicized his short-selling and made statements in newspapers that
the pound would soon be devalued. It wasn't long before sterling was devalued; he made $1 billion in profit.
The point can be made more generally: financial markets are subject to manipulation because they have become socially structured.
Market leaders and financial gurus are admired and followed (at least until very recently). The heavyweights thus dominate the business.
An obvious consequence of this is that there is a strong tendency in financial markets for further concentration of resources.
Another source of the power of financial actors is their obvious affinity for the rampant free-market philosophy of neo-liberalism.
The freedom with which they move financial capital around depends, of course, on the market-friendly policies of the so-called Washington
Consensus.19 As long as they are seen as part of the governing coalition, they derive special
powers to regulate themselves rather than be controlled by an independent government agency or civil society. Their power also is
reinforced by the activities of several collective associations of financial actors,20
which lobby on their behalf.
One more source of power for the financial actors is their knowledge that if they are big enough and sufficiently interlaced
with other financial actors, then the "system" will keep them from failing. Consider the case of Long-term Capital Management, a
hedge fund partnership started in 1994. It was able to borrow from various banks the equivalent of forty times its capitalization
in order to make bets on changes in the relative prices of bonds in the U.S. and abroad. When the Russian government announced a
devaluation and debt moratorium in August, 1998, it produced losses that the fund could not sustain. Nor could some of the banks
that had loaned large amounts to the fund. Accordingly, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, fearful that the risk to the entire
system was too high, orchestrated a private rescue operation by fourteen banks and other financial institutions, which re-capitalized
the company for $3.5 billion.
Financial actors also have the power indirectly to influence non-financial actors such as firms or states. By providing economic
incentives to gamble and speculate on financial instruments, global financial markets divert funds from long-term productive investments.
In all probability, they also encourage banks and financial institutions to maintain a regime of higher real interest rates that
reduce the ability of productive enterprises to obtain credit. The volatility of global financial markets, moreover, brings uncertainty
and volatility in interest rates and exchange rates that are harmful to various sectors of the real economy, particularly international
trade.
The above stories about George Soros and Long-term Capital Management are good illustrations of the consequences for non-financial
actors of actions by financial actors. Both episodes are examples of games that are basically zero-sum, at least in the short-run.
Nothing new was produced; no new values were created. In the 1992 case about speculating against sterling, the Quantum Fund's profits
were at the expense of the British government, especially the Bank of England, and British taxpayers. In 1998, the losses suffered
by Long-term Capital Management came out of the pockets of the stockholders of the banks that bailed it out, as the stock-market
value of their shares depreciated. Hence, the financial system tends to feed itself by drawing more resources from other sectors
of the economy, undermining the vitality of the real economy.
Consequences of global financial flows
The dominant economic ideology of the last twenty-five years has been embodied in the so-called Washington Consensus. It is a
"market-friendly" ideology that traces its roots to longstanding policies of the IMF that encourage macroeconomic "stabilization;"
to adoption by the World Bank of ideas in vogue in Washington early in the Reagan period concerning deregulation and supply-side
economics; to the zeal of the Thatcher government in England for privatizing public enterprises; and perhaps most of all to the
neo-liberal tendencies of the business community and the economics profession in the U.S. The implementation of these policies of
economic "reform," by first "stabilizing" the macro-economy and then "adjusting" the market so that it can perform more efficiently,
are supposed to pay off in the form of faster output growth and rising real incomes
Among these policy prescriptions is financial liberalization in both the developed and the developing countries. Domestically
it is achieved by weakening or removing controls on interest and credit and by diluting the differences between banks, insurance
and finance companies. International financial liberation, on the other hand, demands removal of controls and regulations on both
the inflows and outflows of financial instruments that move through foreign exchange markets. It is the implementation of these
reforms that is perhaps the single most important cause of the surge in global financial flows. To be sure, the influence of technological
advances has broken the natural barriers of space and time for financial markets as twenty-four hour electronic trading has grown.
The fact that throughout most of the 1980s and 1990s the developed countries suffered from over-capacity and overproduction in manufacturing
may also have led the owners of financial capital to look for alternative profit opportunities.
It now is time to ask whether the implementation of all these reforms, on balance, has produced good or bad results. The focus
of this section will be mostly on the consequences of large and expanding international financial flows. After all, they are the
main concern of this essay. But first, we should ask whether or not the policies of growth and rising real incomes promoted by the
Washington Consensus have borne fruit.
Growth and income
There is little doubt that the introduction of the Washington Consensus' policy mix expanded the volume of international trade.
As a result, trade in goods and services has grown at more than twice the rate of global gross domestic product (GDP), and developing
countries' share of trade has risen from 23 to 29 percent. Increasing numbers of firms from developing countries, like their industrial-country
counterparts, engage in transnational production and adopt a global perspective in structuring their operations. The flow of foreign
direct investments and foreign portfolio investments has multiplied even more rapidly than trade, despite the financial instability
experienced in Asia, Brazil, Russia, and elsewhere in recent years.
The effects of liberalization have not been uniformly favorable, however. After at least ten full years of experience with the
Washington Consensus, several recent studies have begun to assess the consequences for developing countries of this experiment in
more open markets.21 Except for the years of crisis in a number of the countries studied,
most developing countries achieved moderate growth rates of gross domestic product in the 1990s - considerably higher than in the
l980s in Africa and Latin America during the debt crisis, but remarkably unchanged in most other regions. Moreover, average annual
growth in the 1990s was slightly lower than in the twenty-five years preceding the debt crisis when a strategy of substituting domestic
production for imports was in fullest use. When population growth rates are taken into consideration, the growth rate of per capita
income in the developing countries studied during the 1990s also was somewhat lower than in the 1960s and 1970s. Toward the end
of the 1990s, growth tapered off in many countries due to emerging domestic financial crises or external events. There is little
evidence in these figures, therefore, to suggest the strategy of liberalization boosted growth rates appreciably.
Nor did the distribution of income improve in most developing countries in the 1990s. On the contrary, virtually without exception
the wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers rose with liberalization. The reasons for this varied widely among
countries, but one of the most important reasons was the fact that the number of relatively well-paid jobs in sectors of the economy
involved with international trade, though growing, was insufficient to absorb available workers, forcing many workers into more
precarious and poorly paid employment in the non-traded, informal trade, and service sectors or where traditional agriculture served
as a sponge for the labor market. Between the mid-1960s and the late-1990s, the poorest 20 percent of the world population saw its
share of income fall from 2.3 to 1.4 percent. Meanwhile, the share of the wealthiest quintile increased from 70 to 85 percent.22
Risk and reward
While all markets are imperfect and subject to failure, financial markets are more prone than others to fail because they are
plagued with three particular shortcomings: asymmetric information, herd behavior and self-fulfilling panics. Asymmetric information
is a problem whenever one party to an economic transaction has insufficient information to make rational and consistent decisions.
In most financial markets where borrowing and lending take place, borrowers usually have better information about the potential
returns and risks associated with the investments to be financed by the loans than do the lenders. This becomes especially true
as financial transactions disperse across the globe, often between borrowers and lenders of widely different cultures.
Asymmetric information leads to adverse selection and moral hazard. Adverse selection occurs when, say, lenders have too little
information to choose from among potential borrowers those who are most likely to use the loans wisely. The lenders' gullibility,
therefore, attracts more unworthy borrowers. Moral hazard occurs when borrowers engage in excessively risky activities that were
unanticipated by lenders and lead to significant losses for the lender. Yet another form of moral hazard occurs when lenders indulge
in lending indiscriminately because they assume that the government or an international institution will bail them out if the loans
go awry.
A good illustration of asymmetric information is the story of bank lending following OPEC's large increase in oil prices following
1973. Awash in cash, the oil exporters deposited large amounts in commercial banks that then perfected the Euro-currency loan for
developing countries. Eager to put excess reserves to use, the banks spent little time discriminating among potential borrowers,
in part because they believed host governments or international agencies would guarantee the loans. At the same time, developing
countries found they could readily borrow not only to import oil, but also to increase other kinds of expenditures. This meant they
could use borrowed funds to maintain domestic spending rather than be forced to adjust to the new realities of higher prices for
necessary imports. There is considerable evidence that moral hazard also was present in the Mexican crises in 1982 and 1994, and
in the Southeast Asian crises in 1997-8.
Yet another illustration of asymmetric information is the tendency of financial firms, especially on Wall Street and in the City
of London, to invent ever more complex derivatives to shift risk around the financial system. The market for these products is growing
rapidly, both on futures and options exchanges (two of the several places where derivatives are traded). A financial engineer, for
example, can take the risk in, say, a bond and break it down into a series of smaller risks, such as that inflation will reduce
its real value or that the borrower will default. These smaller risks can then be priced and sold, using derivatives, so that the
bondholder keeps only those risks he wishes to bear. But this is not a simple task, particularly when it involves assets with risk
exposures far into the future and which are traded so rarely that there is no good market benchmark for setting the price. Enron,
for instance, sold a lot of these sorts of derivatives, booking profits on them immediately even though there was a serious doubt
about their long-term profitability. Stories of huge losses incurred in derivative trading are legion. The real challenge before
central banks and regulatory bodies is to curb speculative behavior and bring discipline in derivative markets.
A second source of risk in financial markets is the tendency of borrowers and lenders alike to engage in herd behavior. John
Maynard Keynes, writing in the 1930s, suggested that financial markets are like "beauty contests." His analogy was to a game in
the British Sunday newspapers that asked readers to rank pictures of women according to their guess about the average choice by
other respondents. The winner, therefore, does not express his own preferences, but rather anticipates "what average opinion expects
average opinion to be." Accordingly, Keynes thought that anyone who obtained information or signals that pointed to swings in average
opinion and to how it would react to changing events had the basis for substantial gain. Objective information about economic data
was not enough. Rather, simple slogans "like public expenditure is bad," "lower unemployment leads to inflation," "larger deficits
lead to higher interest rates," were then the more likely sources of changes in public opinion. What mattered was that average opinion
believed them to be true, and that advance knowledge of, say, more public spending, lower unemployment, or larger deficits, respectively,
offered the speculator a special advantage.
A financial market that operates as a beauty contest is likely to be highly unstable and prone to severe changes. One reason
for this is that people trading in financial assets, even today, know very little about them. People who hold stock know little
about the companies that issued them. Investors in mutual funds know little about the stocks their funds are invested in. Bondholders
know little about the companies or governments that issued the bonds. Even knowledgeable professionals are often more concerned
with judging how swings in conventional opinion might change market values rather than with the long-term returns on investments.
Indeed, since careful analysis of risks and rewards is costly and time consuming, it often makes sense for fund managers and traders
to follow the herd. If they decide rationally not to follow the herd, their competence may be seriously questioned. On the other
hand, if fund managers follow the herd and the herd suffers losses, few will question their competence because others too suffered
losses. When financial markets are operated like a beauty contest, everyone wants to sell at the same time and nobody wants to buy.
The financial markets behaved as predicted shortly after several industrial countries, including the U.S. and Germany, abolished
all restrictions on international capital movements in 1973. The new system proved to be highly volatile, with exchange rates, interest
rates, and financial asset-prices subject to large short-term fluctuations. The markets also were susceptible to contagion when
financial tremors spread from their epicenter to other countries and markets that seemingly had little connection with the initial
problem. In less than five years, it already was clear that both the surpluses and the deficits on the major countries' balance
of payments were getting larger, not smaller, despite significant changes in the exchange rates.
In some cases, a financial crisis can be self-fulfilling. A rumor can trigger a self-fulfilling speculative attack, e.g. on a
currency, that may be baseless and far removed from the economic fundamentals (unlike the Soros story above). This can cause a sudden
shift in the herd's intentions and lead to unanticipated market movements that create severe financial crises. Consider, for example,
the succession of major financial crises that have pock-marked the recent history of international financial markets, including
Latin America's Southern Cone crisis of 1979-81, the developing-country debt crisis of 1982, the Mexican crisis of 1994-95, the
Asian crisis of 1997-98, the Russian crisis of 1998, the Brazilian crisis of 1999, and the Argentine crisis of 2001-02.
Perhaps the Asian crisis of 1997-98 is the most interesting in this regard, for there were relatively few signals beforehand
of impending crisis. All the main East Asian economies displayed in 1994-96 low inflation, fiscal surpluses or balanced budgets,
limited public debt, high savings and investment rates, substantial foreign exchange reserves and no signs of deterioration before
the crisis. This background has led many analysts to suppose that the crisis was a mere product of the global financial system.
But what could have triggered the herd to stampede out of Asian currencies? No doubt several factors were at work. Before the crisis
that started in the summer of 1997, there was a rise in short-term lending to Asians by Western and Japanese banks with little or
no premiums, a fact that the Bank for International Settlement raised questions about. Alert investors, especially hedge funds,
also noticed that substantial portions of East and Southeast Asian borrowings were going into non-productive assets and real estate
that often were linked to political connections. In fact, some of the funds pouring into non-productive assets were coming out of
the productive sector, mortgaging the longer-term viability of some real economies. Information about the structure and policies
of financial sectors was opaque. Thus, opinions began to change among key lenders about the regulation of financial sectors in several
Asian countries and their destabilizing lack of transparency. Suddenly, several important hedge funds reduced their exposure by
shorting currency futures, followed quickly by Western mutual funds. The calling of loans led quickly to deep depression in several
Asian countries. It has been estimated that the Asian crisis and its global repercussions cut global output by $2 trillion in 1998-2000.
Loss of government autonomy
Both economic theory and the experience of managing the external financial affairs of nations tell us that it is virtually impossible
to maintain (1) full financial mobility, (2) a fixed exchange rate, and (3) freedom to seek macro-economic balance (full employment
with little inflation) with appropriate monetary and fiscal policies. Only two of these policy objectives can be consistently maintained.
If the authorities try to pursue all three, they will sooner or later be punished by destabilizing financial flows, as in the run
up to the Great Depression around 1930 and in the months before sterling's collapse 1992. If a government tries to stimulate its
economy with lax monetary policy, for example, and players with significant market power like George Soros sense that at a fixed
exchange rate, foreigners will be unwilling to lend enough to finance the country's current account deficit, they will begin to
flee the home currency in order to avoid the capital losses they will suffer if and when there is a devaluation. If reserve losses
accelerate and more players follow suit, crisis ensues. The authorities are forced to devalue, interest rates soar, and the successful
attackers sit back to count their profits.
For nations wishing to retain reasonably independent monetary and fiscal authority in order to cater to domestic needs, the solution
is to allow the exchange rate to move up or down as conditions in the foreign exchange markets dictate, or to establish some sort
of control over the movement of financial instruments in and out of the country, or to devise some combination of these two adjustment
mechanisms. The debate over whether fixed or flexible exchange rates is the wiser policy continues to rage in academic quarters
and in finance ministries all over the world. For the most part, the international business community prefers reasonably fixed exchange
rates in order to minimize their costs of hedging foreign currency positions. Thus instituting some form of control over speculative
financial movements may be an appropriate solution to the "trilemma."
The capacity of a nation to levy enough taxes to finance needed public expenditures is another important reason to retain independent
authority. A central function of government has been to insulate domestic groups from excessive market risks, particularly those
originating in international transactions. This is the way governments have maintained domestic political support for liberalizing
trade and finance throughout the postwar period. Yet many governments are less able today to help citizens that are injured by freer
markets with unemployment compensation, severance payments, and adjustment assistance because the slightest hint of raising taxes
to pay for these vital public services leads to capital flight in a world of heightened financial mobility.
This is a dilemma. Increased integration into the world economy has raised the need of governments to redistribute tax revenues
or implement generous social programs in order to protect the vast majority of the population that remains internationally immobile.
At the same time, governments find themselves less able to maintain the safety nets needed to preserve social stability. It seems
reasonable to suppose, therefore, that doing things that will bolster the ability of governments to levy sufficient taxes - curbing
tax avoidance by transnational corporations, controlling offshore tax havens, regulating capital flight - would help make globalization
slightly more democratic.
Winners and losers
The people who benefit from speculative financial movements are, for the most part, better educated and wealthier than the vast
majority of fellow citizens. They are the elites, whatever the country. As noted above, they have fewer connections to the real
economy of production and exchange than most people. And their purpose in trading financial assets, again for the most part, is
to make a profit quickly rather than wait for an investment project to mature.
People who do not participate directly in the buying and selling of short-term financial instruments are nonetheless influenced
indirectly by the macroeconomic instability and contagion that often accompany interruptions in financial market flows. This is
true for people both in developed and developing countries. In developed countries, the voracious appetite of financial markets
for more and more resources saps the vitality of the real economy - the economy that most people depend upon for their livelihood.
It has been shown that real interest rates rise as a result of the expansion of speculative financial markets. This rise in real
interest rates, in turn, dampens real investment and economic growth while serving to concentrate wealth and political power within
a growing worldwide rentier class (people who depend for their income on interest, dividends, and rents).23
Rather, the long-term health of the economy depends upon directing investable funds into productive investments rather than into
speculation.
In developing countries, attracting global investors' attention is a mixed blessing. Capital market inflows provide important
support for building infrastructure and harnessing natural and human resources. At the same time, surges in money market inflows
may distort relative prices, exacerbate weakness in a nation's financial sector, and feed bubbles. As the 1997 Asian crisis attests,
financial capital may just as easily flow out of as into a country. Unstable financial flows often lead to one of three kinds of
crises:
Fiscal crises. The government abruptly loses the ability to roll over foreign debts and attract new foreign loans, possibly
forcing the government into rescheduling or default of its obligations.
Exchange crises. Market participants abruptly shift their demands from domestic currency assets to foreign currency assets,
depleting the foreign exchange reserves of the central bank in the context of a pegged exchange rate system.
Banking crises. Commercial banks abruptly lose the ability to roll over market instruments (i.e., certificates-of-deposit)
or meet a sudden withdrawal of funds from sight deposits, thereby making the banks illiquid and possibly insolvent.
Although these three types of crises sometimes appear singly, they more often arrive in combination because external shocks or
changed market expectations are likely to occur simultaneously in the market for government bonds, the foreign exchange market,
and the markets for bank assets. Approximately sixty developing countries have experienced extreme financial crises in the past
decade.24
The vast majority of people in the developing world suffer from these convulsive changes. They are tired of adjusting to changes
over which they exercise absolutely no control. Most people in these countries view Western capitalism as a private club, a discriminatory
system that benefits only the West and the elites who live inside "the bell jars" of poor countries. Even as they consume the consumer
goods of the West, they are quite aware that they still linger at the periphery of the capitalist game. They have no stake in it,
and they believe that they suffer its consequences. As Hernando deSoto puts it, "Globalization should not be just about interconnecting
the bell jars of the privileged few."25
Social solidarity
Karl Polanyi in The Great Transformation sought to explain how the "liberal creed" contributed to the catastrophes of war and
depression associated with the first half of the twentieth century. Polanyi's central argument, which in fact can be traced back
to Adam Smith, is that markets do indeed promote efficiency and change, but that they achieve this through undermining social coherence
and solidarity. Markets must therefore be embedded within social institutions that mitigate their negative consequences.
The evidence of more recent times suggests that the global spread of free-market policies has been accompanied by the decline
of countervailing institutions of social solidarity. Indeed, a main feature of the introduction of market-friendly policies has
been to weaken local institutions of social solidarity. Consider, for example, the top-down policy prescriptions of the IMF and
World Bank during the developing world's debt crisis in the 1980s. These policies evolved into an intricate web of expected behaviors
by developing countries. In order for developing countries to expect private businesses and financial interests to invest funds
within their borders and to boost the growth potential of domestic economies, they needed to drop the "outdated and inefficient"
policies that dominated development strategies for most of the postwar period and adopt in their place policies that are designed
to encourage foreign trade and freer financial markets. Without significant adjustments in the ways economies were managed, it was
suggested, nations soon would be left behind.
The list of Washington Consensus requirements was long and daunting:
Make the private sector the primary engine of economic growth
Maintain a low rate of inflation and price stability
Shrink the size of the state bureaucracy
Maintain as close to a balanced budget as possible, if not a surplus
Eliminate or lower tariffs on imported goods
Remove restrictions on foreign investment
Get rid of quotas and domestic monopolies
Increase exports
Privatize state-owned industries and utilities
Deregulate capital markets
Make currency convertible
Open industries, stock, and bond markets to direct foreign ownership
Deregulate the economy to promote domestic competition
Eliminate government corruption, subsidies and kickbacks
Open the banking and telecommunications systems to private ownership and competition
Allow citizens to choose from an array of competing pension options and foreign-run pension and mutual funds.
In a provocative article, Ute Pieper and Lance Taylor point out that market outcomes often conflict with other valuable social
institutions. In addition, they emphasize that markets function effectively only when they are "embedded" in society. The authors
then look carefully at the experience of a number of developing countries as they struggled to comply with the policy prescriptions
of the IMF and the Fund. In almost every case, they demonstrate conclusively that the impact of these efforts was to make society
an "adjunct to the market."26
An appropriate balance is not being struck between the economic and non-economic aspirations of human beings and their communities.
Indeed, the evidence is mounting that globalization's trajectory can easily lead to social disintegration - to the splitting apart
of nations along lines of economic status, mobility, region, or social norms. Globalization not only highlights and exacerbates
tensions among groups; it also reduces the willingness of internationally mobile groups to cooperate with others in resolving disagreements
and conflicts.
Policy options
History confirms that free-markets are inherently volatile institutions, prone to speculative booms and busts. Overshooting,
especially in financial markets, is their normal condition. To work well, free markets need not only regulation, but active management.
During the first half of the post-war era, world markets were kept reasonably stable by national governments and by a regime of
international cooperation. Only lately has a much earlier idea been revived and made an orthodoxy - the idea adopted by the Washington
Consensus that, provided there are clear and well-enforced rules-of-the-game, free markets can be self-regulating because they embody
the rational expectations that participants form about the future.
On the contrary, since markets are themselves shaped by human expectations, their behavior cannot be rationally predicted. The
forces that drive markets are not mechanical processes of cause and effect, as assumed in most of economic theory. They are what
George Soros has termed "reflexive interactions."27 Because markets are governed by highly
combustible interactions among beliefs, they cannot be self-regulating.
The question before us then, is what could be done to better regulate financial markets and to bring active management back into
the task of "embedding" markets in society, rather than the other way around? Monetary authorities such as the Federal Reserve System
in the U.S. and the central banks of other countries were formed long ago in order to dampen the inherent instabilities of financial
market in their home countries. But the evolution of an international regulatory framework has not kept pace with the globalization
of financial markets. The International Monetary Fund was not designed to cope with the volume and instability of recent financial
trends.
Capital controls
Given the problems outlined above about short-term speculative financial transactions, one might wonder why national policy-makers
have not insulated their financial markets by imposing some sort of control over financial capital. The answer, of course, is that
some have continued trying to do so despite discouragement from the IMF. For example, some have put limitations on the quantity,
conditions, or destinations of financial flows. Others have tried to impose a tax on short-term borrowing by national firms from
foreign banks. This is said to be "market-based" because it operates by altering the cost of foreign funds. If such transactions
were absolutely prohibited, they would be called "non-market" interventions.
A more extreme form of financial capital controls, one that controls movement of foreign exchange across international borders,
also has been tried in a number of countries. This form of control requires that some if not all foreign currency inflows be surrendered
to the central bank or a government agency, often at a fixed price that differs from that which would be set in free market. The
receiving agency then determines the uses of foreign exchange. The absence of exchange controls means that currencies are "convertible."
The neo-liberal argument opposing financial capital controls asserts that their removal will enhance economic efficiency and
reduce corruption. It is based on two basic propositions in economic theory that depend for their proof on perfectly competitive
markets in the real economy and perfectly efficient gatherers and transmitters of information in financial markets. Neither assumption
is realistic in today's world. Indeed, a number of empirical studies have reported the effectiveness of capital controls in controlling
capital flight, curbing volatile capital flows and protecting the domestic economy from negative external developments.
Developing countries have only recently abandoned, or still maintain, a variety of control regimes. Latin American countries
traditionally have used market-based controls, putting taxes and surcharges on selected financial capital movements or tying them
up in escrow accounts. Non-market based restrictions were more common in Asia until the early 1990s. Many commentators believe that
their sudden removal in the early 1990s was a contributing cause to the Asian financial crises in 1997-8. The experience of two
countries, Malaysia and Chile, with capital controls is especially instructive.
Malaysia, unlike its Asian neighbors, was reluctant to remove its restrictions on external borrowing by national firms unless
they could show how they could earn enough foreign exchange to service their debts. Then when the Asian crises hit, its government
imposed exchange controls, in effect making its local currency that was held outside the country inconvertible into foreign exchange.
After the ringget was devalued, exporters were required to surrender foreign currency earnings to the central bank in exchange for
local currency at the new pegged rate. The government also limited the amount of cash nationals could take abroad, and it prohibited
the repatriation of earnings on foreign investments that had been held for less than one year. Thus, Malaysia's capital controls
were focused mostly on controlling the outflow of short-term financial transactions. Happily, the authorities were able to stabilize
the currency and reduce interest rates, leading to a degree of domestic recovery.28
Chile, on the other hand, tried to limit the inflow of short-term financial transactions. It did so by imposing a costly reserve
requirement on foreign-owned capital held in the country for less than one year. Despite attempts to stimulate foreign direct investment
of the funds, most of the reserve deposits were absorbed in the form of increased reserves at the central bank. In turn, this created
a potential for expanding the money supply, which the government feared would lead to inflation. Rather than allow this to happen,
the government "sterilized" the inflows by selling government bonds from its portfolio. But this pushed down the prices of bonds
and pushed up the interest rates on them, discouraging business investment. Finally, when prices of copper (Chile's primary export)
fell sharply in 1998, the control regime was scrapped.29
The tobin tax
A global tax on international currency movements was first proposed by James Tobin, a Yale University economist, in 1972.30
He suggested that a tax of one-quarter to one percent be levied on the value of all currency transactions that cross national borders.
He reasoned that such a tax on all spot transactions would fall most heavily on transactions that involve very short round-trips
across borders. In other words, it would be speculators with very short time-horizons that the tax would deter, rather than longer-term
investors who can amortize the costs of the tax over many years. For example, the yearly cost of a 0.2 percent round trip tax would
amount to 48 percent of the value of the traded amount if the round trip were daily, 10 percent if weekly and 2.4 percent if monthly.
Since at least eighty percent of spot transactions in the foreign exchange markets are reversed in seven business days or less,
the tax could have a profound effect on the costs of short-term speculators.
Of course, for those who believe in the efficiency of markets and the rationality of expectations, a transactions tax would only
hinder market efficiency. They argue that speculative sales and purchases of foreign exchange are mostly the result of "wrong" national
monetary and fiscal policies. While we readily admit that national policies sometimes do not accord with desired objectives, they
nonetheless have little relevance for speculators focused on the next few seconds, minutes or hours.
Tobin did not intend for his proposal to involve a supranational taxation authority. Rather, governments would levy the tax nationally.
In order to make the tax rate uniform across countries, however, an international agreement would have to be entered into by at
least the principal financial centers. The revenue obtained from the tax could be designated for each country's foreign exchange
reserve for use during periods of instability, or it could be directed into a common global fund for uses like aid to the poorest
nations. In the latter case, the feasibility of the tax also would depend on an international political agreement. The revenue potential
is sizeable, and could run as high as $500 billion annually.
There are two other advantages often cited by proponents of the Tobin tax. Tobin's original rationale for a foreign exchange
transactions tax was to enhance policy autonomy in a world of high financial capital mobility. He argued that currency fluctuations
often have very significant economic and political costs, especially for producers and consumers of traded goods. A Tobin tax, by
breaking the condition that domestic interest rates may differ from foreign interest rates only to the extent that the exchange
rate is expected to change (see p. 10), would allow authorities to pursue different policies than those prevailing abroad without
exposing them to large exchange rate movements. More recent research suggests that this is only a very modest advantage.31
An additional advantage of the tax is that it could facilitate the monitoring of international financial flows. The world needs
a centralized data-base on all kinds of financial flows. Neither the Bank for International Settlements nor the IMF has succeeded
in providing enough information to monitor them all. This information should be regularly shared among countries and international
institutions in order to collectively respond to emerging issues.
The feasibility issues raised by the Tobin tax are more political than technical. One of the issues is about the likelihood of
evasion. All taxes suffer some evasion, but that has rarely been a reason for avoiding them. Ideally all jurisdictions should be
a party to any agreement about a common transactions tax, since the temptation to trade through non-participating jurisdictions
would be high. Failing that, one could levy a penalty on transactions with "Tobin tax havens" of, say, double the normal tax rate.
Moreover, one could limit the problem of substituting untaxed assets for taxed assets by applying the tax to forwards, swaps and
possibly other contracts.
Tobin and many others have assumed that the task of managing the tax should be assigned to the IMF. Others argue that the design
of the tax is incompatible with the structure of the IMF and that the tax should be managed by a new supranational body. Which view
will prevail depends upon the resolution of other outstanding issues. The Tobin tax is an idea that deserves careful consideration.
It should not be dismissed as too idealistic or too impractical. It addresses with precision the problems of excessive instability
in the foreign exchange markets, and it yields the additional advantage of providing a means to assist those in greater need.
Reforming the IMF
The IMF was established in 1944 to provide temporary financing for member governments to help them maintain pegged exchange rates
during a period of internal adjustment. With the collapse of the pegged exchange rate regime in 1971, that responsibility has been
eclipsed by its role as central arbiter of financial crises in developing countries. As noted above (p. 20), these crises may be
of three different kinds: fiscal crises, foreign exchange crises, and banking crises.
Under current institutional arrangements, a nation suffering a serious fiscal crisis that could easily lead to default must seek
temporary relief from its debts from three different (but interrelated) institutions: the IMF, which is sometimes willing to renegotiate
loans in return for promises to adopt more stringent policies (see above); the so-called Paris Club that sometimes grants relief
on bilateral (country to country) credits; and the London Club that sometimes gives relief on bank credits. This is an extremely
cumbersome process that fails to provide debtor countries with standstill protection from creditors, with adequate working capital
while debts are being renegotiated, or with ways to ensure an expeditious overall settlement. The existing process often takes several
years to complete.
There is a growing consensus that this problem is best resolved with creation of a new international legal framework that provides
for de facto sovereign bankruptcy. This could take the form of an International Bankruptcy Code with an international bankruptcy
court, or it could involve a less formal functional equivalent to its mechanisms: automatic standstills, priority lending, and comprehensive
reorganization plans supported by rules that do not require unanimous consent. Jeffrey Sachs recommends, for example, that the IMF
issue a clear statement of operating principles covering all stages of a debtor's progression through "bankruptcy" to solvency.
A new system of emergency priority lending from private capital markets could be developed, he suggests, under IMF supervision.
He also feels that the IMF and member governments should develop model covenants for inclusion in future sovereign lending instruments
that allow for priority lending and speedy renegotiation of debt claims.32
At the Joint Meeting of the IMF and the World Bank in September, 2002, the policy committee directed the IMF staff to develop
by April, 2003, a "concrete proposal" for establishing an internationally recognized legal process for restructuring the debts of
governments in default. It also endorsed efforts to include "collective action" clauses in future government bond issues to prevent
one or two holdout creditors from blocking a debt-restructuring plan approved by a majority of creditors. The objective of both
proposals is to resolve future debt crises quickly and before they threaten to destabilize large regions, as happened in Southeast
Asia in 1997-98.
Member countries rarely receive support from the IMF any longer to maintain a particular nominal exchange rate. Because financial
capital is so mobile now, pegged exchange rates probably are unsupportable. But there are special times when the IMF still might
give such support during a foreign exchange crisis. International lending to support a given exchange rate is legitimate if the
government is trying to establish confidence in a new national currency, or if its currency is recovering from a severe bout of
hyperinflation. Ordinarily the foreign exchange should be provided from an international stabilization fund supervised by the IMF.
National central banks usually supervise and regulate the domestic banking sector. Thus, banking crises normally are handled
by domestic institutions. This may not be possible, however, if the nation's banks hold large short-term liabilities denominated
in foreign currencies. If the nation's central bank has insufficient reserves of foreign currencies to fund a large outflow of foreign
currencies, there may be circumstances when the IMF or other lenders may wish to act as lenders-of-last-resort to a central bank
under siege. Nations like Argentina that have engaged in "dollarization" are learning about the downside risks of holding large
liabilities denominated in foreign currencies. The best way to avoid this problem is for governments and central banks to restrict
the use of foreign currency deposits or other kinds of short-term foreign liabilities at domestic banks.
Overall, what is most needed is the availability of more capital in developing countries and much quicker responses, amply funded,
to emerging financial crises.. George Soros has argued powerfully that the IMF needs to establish a better balance between crisis
prevention and intervention.33 The IMF has made some progress in prevention by introducing
Contingency Credit Lines (CCLs). The CCL rewards countries that follow sound policies by giving them access to IMF credit lines
before rather than after a crisis erupts. But CCL terms were set too high and there have been no takers. Soros also has recommended
the issuance of Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) that developed-countries would donate for the purpose of providing international assistance.
Its proceeds would be used to finance "the provision of public goods on a global scale as well as to foster economic, social, and
political progress in individual countries."34
A growing number of civil society institutions, however, oppose giving more money to the IMF unless it is basically reformed.
They point out that it is a committed part of the Washington Consensus, the application of whose policies have made societies adjuncts
of the market. They see the IMF as an instrument of the U.S. government and its corporate allies. The conditions it attaches to
loans for troubled countries often do more to protect the interests of first world investors than to promote the long-term health
of the developing countries. The needed chastening of speculative investors does not occur under these circumstances. There is evidence
that in several major crises, IMF requirements for assisting nations have in fact worsened the situation and protracted the crises.
The IMF opposed the policies that enabled Malaysia to weather the crisis in Southeast Asia, for example, while it urged the failed
policies of other Southeast Asian nations. The vast literature cited by Pieper and Taylor (p. 22) is a convincing chronicle of earlier
missteps. For such reasons as these, some civil society institutions argue that, unless IMF policies are changed, giving the institution
more money will do more harm than good.
Fortunately, the IMF's policies are beginning to change, partly as a result of criticisms by civil society institutions, but
more through recognition of the seriousness of the problems with the present system. In the wake of recent financial crises, leaders
in the IMF as well as the World Bank are looking for ways to reform the international financial architecture. Arguably, their emphasis
is shifting away from slavish devotion to the prescriptions of the Washington Consensus and toward more state intervention in financial
markets. Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel Laureate who has been particularly critical of the IMF, nonetheless acknowledges that its policy
stances are improving.35
The IMF has begun to recognize the importance of at least functional public interventions in markets and the need to provide
more supporting revenues. It has realized that controls on external financial movements and prudent regulation can help contain
financial crises. It has abandoned the doctrine, long the backbone of structural adjustment policies, that raising the local interest
rate will stimulate saving and thereby growth. Both the IMF and the World Bank have rolled over or forgiven the bulk of official
debt owed by the poorest economies.
Whether these and other promising changes in IMF thinking and policy formation are sufficient to assure that its future responses
to crises will be benign still is not clear. While celebrating what they view as belated improvements, many critics of the IMF among
civil society institutions are not convinced that they are sufficiently basic. Even if the IMF avoids repeating some of its more
egregious mistakes, some believe that it is likely to continue to function chiefly for the benefit of the international financial
community rather than the masses of people. Rather, they believe that, at least in the long term, it would be much better for control
over international finance to reside in new institutions under a restructured United Nations. They favor the U.N. because it has
a broader mandate, is more open and democratic, and, in its practice, has given much greater weight to human, social, and environmental
priorities.
Many civil society institutions want the primary focus of reform to be on taming speculation, restoring the control of their
economies to nations, and embedding economies in the wider society. They believe that if these policies are adopted there will be
less need for large funding to deal with financial crises. There remains, however, the fact that such crises are occurring and will
continue to occur for some time. The IMF is the only institution positioned to respond to these crises. Hence, even for those who
sympathize with the goals of the civil society institutions, there is a strong argument for more financing for the IMF.
A world financial authority
A variety of public and private citizens and institutions have recently proposed the establishment of a World Financial Authority
(WFA) to perform in the domain of world financial markets what national regulators do in domestic markets. Some believe it should
be built upon the foundation of global financial surveillance and regulation that have already been laid by the Bank for International
Settlements in Basel, Switzerland. Others regard it as a natural extension of the activities of the IMF. Still others are less interested
in the precise institutional form it would take than in the clear delineation of the tasks that need to be done by someone.
Its first task probably should be to provide sufficient and timely financial assistance during crises to avert contagion and
defaults. This requires a lender-of-last-resort with sufficient resources and authority to disperse rescue money quickly. Perhaps
the best example to date is the bailout loan to Mexico by the U.S. Treasury and the IMF at the end of 1994. It supplied sufficient
liquidity for Mexico to make the transition back to stability and to pay back the loans ahead of time. The management of the Asian
crises in 1997-8, on the other hand, was badly handled. The bailout packages offered by the IMF were not only significantly smaller
than in the Mexico case; they also were constrained with so many conditions that a year later only twenty percent of the funds had
been disbursed. This slow response to the crisis probably worsened the contagion. Surprisingly, the error was repeated in the Russian
crisis in 1998 and the Brazilian crisis in 1999.
A World Financial Authority also should provide the necessary regulatory framework within which the IMF or a successor institution
can develop as a lender-of-last-resort. As long as domestic regulatory procedures function properly, there will be no need for a
world authority to be involved, any more than to certify that domestic regulatory procedures are effective. In countries where domestic
financial regulation is unsatisfactory, the WFA would assist with regulatory reform. In this way, the WFA could aid financial reconstruction,
reduce the likelihood of moral hazard, and give confidence to backers of the operation.
There is little appetite today, especially in Washington, to create a new international bureaucracy. This fact gives support
to the idea of building the WFA from the existing infrastructure of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The BIS is a meeting
place for national central bankers who have constructed an increasingly complicated set of norms, rules and decision-making procedures
for handling and preventing future crises. Its committees and cooperative cross-border regulatory framework enjoy the confidence
of governments and of the financial community. It may well be the best place to govern an international regulatory authority at
the present time.
Theological and ethical considerations
While Christian theology cannot provide us with detailed recommendations on how to correct the adverse consequences of speculative
financial movements, it can provide us with an empowering perspective or worldview. Our theological expressions of the faith describe
the source of our spiritual energy and hope. They betray our ultimate values and the source of our ethical norms. They shape how
we perceive and judge the "signs of the times."
God's world and human responsibilities
Nothing in creation is independent of God. "The earth is the Lord's and all that is in it, the world, and all those who live
in it." (Ps. 24:1 NRSV) Thus, no part of the creation - whether human beings, other species, the elements of soil and water, even
human-made things - is our property to use as we wish. All is to be treated in accord with the values and ground rules of a loving
God, their ultimate owner, who is concerned for the good of the whole creation. All of God's creation therefore deserves to be treated
with appropriate care and concern, no matter how remote from one's daily consciousness or existence.
The doctrine of creation reminds us that our ultimate allegiance is not to the nationalistic and human-centered values of our
culture, but rather to the values of the loving Maker of heaven and earth. When we seek plenty obsessively, consume goods excessively,
compete against others compulsively, or commit ourselves to Economic Fate, we are worshiping false gods. Modern idolatries are often
encountered in economic forms, just as in the New Testament's warnings about the spiritual perils of prosperity in the parables
of the rich, hoarding fool (Luke 12:15-21) and the rich youth (Matt. 19:16-24 and Luke 18:18-25).
The fact that so much of financial speculation is divorced from the real economy of production and exchange suggests that its
paper transactions are more like bets in a casino than an essential component of God's real economy, which seeks the good of all
creation. It is wrong to subject people to the effects of wholesale gambling. The fact that the practice of financial speculation
is secretive, compulsively competitive, and frequented by lone rangers, moreover, hints at a cult of false idols. Its practitioners,
including especially day-traders, seem interested only in exceedingly short-term personal financial advantage, unconcerned about
the long-term consequences of their actions or their impact on others. This also indicates a degree of idolatry that contradicts
the doctrine of creation.
Image of God
The conviction that human beings have a God-given dignity and worth (Gen. 1:26-28) unites humanity in a universal covenant of
rights and responsibilities - the family of God. All humans are entitled to the essential conditions for expressing their human
dignity and for participation in defining and shaping the common good. These rights include satisfaction of basic biophysical needs,
environmental safety, full participation in political and economic life, and the assurance of fair treatment and equal protection
of the laws. These rights define our responsibilities in justice to one another, locally, nationally and - because they are human
rights - internationally.
Financial speculation often leads to unmanageable floods of funds into and out of host societies, creating unwanted bubbles and
panics. Financial speculators normally ignore the human consequences of their activities on the rights of people in host societies,
where economic adjustments are shared widely and painfully. Their primary interest is short-term personal financial gain. The absence
of a sense of covenantal unity with their brothers and sisters of the developing world is a sad commentary on the governing ethic
of speculators in the capital markets. Their arrogance calls for some form of control over foreign exchange and financial capital
markets.
Justice in covenant
The rights and responsibilities associated with the image of God are inextricably tied to the stress on justice in Scripture
and tradition. We render to others their due because of our loving respect for their God-given dignity and value. The God portrayed
in Scripture is the "lover of justice" (Ps. 99:4, 33:5, 37:28, 11:7; Isa. 30:18, 61:8; Jer. 9:24). Justice is at the ethical core
of the biblical message. Faithfulness to covenant relationships, moreover, demands a justice that recognizes special obligations,
"a preferential option" to widows, orphans, the poor, and aliens, which is to say the economically vulnerable and politically oppressed.
Hence, the idea of the Jubilee Year (Lev. 25) was meant to prevent unjust concentrations of power and poverty. Jesus' ministry embodies
concern for the rights and needs of the poor; He befriended and defended the dispossessed and the outcasts.
The fact that the liberalization of trade and finance has failed to improve the distribution of incomes, indeed, that it has
widened the gap between rich and poor in virtually every country, is not a sign of distributive justice but of its opposite. The
standard of living for the least skilled, least mobile, and poorest citizens of many developing countries has declined absolutely.
This, too, is an unjust result of a broken system. The fact that governments that wish to assist the vulnerable and weak of their
societies are less able to do so, in part because they no longer can levy sufficient taxes on foreign interests, is a violation
of justice in community.
Sin and judgment
Sin is a declaration of autonomy from God, a rebellion against the sovereign source of our being. It makes the self and its values
the center of one's existence, in defiance of God's care for all. Sin tempts us to value things over people, measuring our worth
by the size of our wealth and the quantity of goods we consume, rather than by the quality of our relationships with God and with
others. Sin involves injustice because its self-centeredness defies God's covenant of justice, grasping more than one's due and
depriving others of their due.
Sin is manifested not only in individuals, but also in social institutions and cultural patterns. These structural injustices
are culturally acceptable ways of giving some individuals and groups of people advantage over others. Because they are pervasive
and generally invisible, they compel our participation. They benefit some and harm many others. Whether or not we deserve blame
as individuals and churches for these social sins depends in part on whether we defend or resist them, tolerate or reject them.
The fact that the freeing of financial markets has permitted financial speculators to engage in high-risk gambles without regard
to the consequences for others is abundant evidence of both individual and institutional sin. The policies of the Washington Consensus
frequently lead to adverse consequences for the poor and the environment, even as its proponents gain advantages from the implementation
of such policies. They are another serious expression of social sin in our time. These policies inevitably increase the concentration
of economic power in fewer hands. The fact that the global spread of free-market policies has led to the decline of countervailing
institutions of
social solidarity means that it is easier for the centers of economic power to corrupt governments, control markets, alienate
neighbors, manipulate public opinion, and contribute to a sense of political impotency in the public.
The Church's mission and hope
The church is called to be an effective expression of the Reign of God, which Jesus embodied and proclaimed. This ultimate hope
is a judgment on our deficiencies
and a challenge to faithful service. God's goal of a just and reconciled world is not simply our final destiny but an agenda
for our earthly responsibilities. We are called to be a sign of the Reign of God, on earth as it is in heaven, to reflect the coming
consummation of God's new covenant of shalom to the fullest extent possible.
A new financial architecture
In her path-breaking book, Casino Capitalism,36 Susan Strange likens the Western financial
system to a vast casino. As in a casino,
"the world of high finance today offers the players a choice of games. Instead of roulette, blackjack, or poker, there is dealing
to be done - the foreign-exchange market and all its variations; or in bonds, government securities or shares. In all these markets
you may place bets on the future by dealing forward and by buying or selling options and all sorts of other recondite financial
inventions. Some of the players - banks especially - play with very large stakes. There are also many quite small operators. There
are tipsters, too, selling advice, and peddlers of systems to the gullible. And the croupiers in this global finance casino are
the big bankers and brokers. They play, as it were, "for the house.' It is they, in the long run, who make the best living."
She goes on to observe that the big difference between ordinary kinds of gambling and speculation in financial markets is that
one can choose not to gamble at roulette or poker, whereas everyone is affected by "casino capitalism." What goes on in the back
offices of banks and hedge funds "is apt to have sudden, unpredictable and unavoidable consequences for individual lives."
It is this volatility, this instability in financial markets that has given rise to recurring financial crises. They must be
tamed. In the wake of recent financial crises, people are beginning to look for ways to reform the international financial architecture.
Although it is difficult to move from general theological convictions to specific proposals, we offer the following suggestions
for consideration by Christians and other persons of good will.
Capital controls should be an integral part of national strategies to tame the financial system. They can be made an effective
and meaningful tool to protect and insulate the domestic economy from volatile capital flows and other negative external developments.
Regulatory and supervisory measures should supplement capital controls when appropriate. They should include regulation
of financial derivatives and hedge funds. Regulation is a necessary complement to domestic capital controls. Nations influenced
by hedge funds and their complex financial instruments should seek international cooperation, including the governments of host
countries, to regulate their practices.
A new international legal framework should be created, which provides for de facto sovereign bankruptcy. The existing international
system for dealing with insolvent governments is woefully inadequate. Provision must be made for automatic standstills, priority
lending, and planned reorganizations.
An international transactions tax (like the Tobin tax) should be designed and implemented to discourage short-term speculative
capital movements. It is neither "too idealistic" nor "too impractical." It would reduce short-term trading and strengthen the
defensibility of the exchange rate regime.
International cooperation should be sought to curb dubious activities of offshore financial centers. Strict international
regulation and supervision of offshore centers is essential to curb tax and regulatory evasions. They also are a primary conduit
for money laundering and various criminal activities.
The IMF's responsibilities as a lender-of-last-resort should be enhanced, expanding its authority and resources to make
possible quick action to avert financial crises. The IMF must have effective and swift mechanisms to increase the Fund's access
to official monies in times of crisis, including authority to borrow directly from financial markets under those circumstances.
A World Financial Authority based on the cross-border regulatory framework of the Bank for International Settlements should
be developed. It should provide the necessary regulatory framework within which the IMF or a successor organization can develop
as a lender-of-last-resort.
Of these recommendations, perhaps the most controversial is that more funds be given to the IMF. We noted above that much of
the criticism of the IMF is justified. We also acknowledged that the IMF is improving its policies. We hope that these improvements
will continue. Meanwhile, there is no other viable candidate to serve as lender-of-last-resort - an absolutely essential feature
of any new financial architecture.
The major reason some civil society institutions resist funding the IMF further is its history of misguided structural adjustment
policies, policies that are now widely recognized to have caused widespread suffering. We hope that recent changes will improve
this situation as well and enable the IMF to perform the important role we recommend for it.
Along with the World Bank, it is beginning to contextualize its performance criteria and conditionalities, taking much more seriously
the unique circumstances of particular economies. It is listening more and nitpicking less. To be sure, the IMF is not likely to
abandon its policy of making its loans conditional on the adoption by borrowing countries of mutually agreed economic policies.
Even so, there is considerable evidence that when it has had more resources on hand, conditionality has been correspondingly wiser
and less draconian.
The IMF now recognizes that it can leave more decisions to developing countries partly because these have better informed and
more sophisticated employees than was once the case. Certainly in Latin America and Asia and increasingly in Africa, country economic
teams are better qualified technically than the lower rung Ph.D.s from American and European universities to whom the IMF and World
Bank entrust their missions. Local economists can do financial programming and standard macroeconomic modeling as well as or better
than the people from Washington can; they also know how to do investment project analysis. To be sure, decisions about financial
and project plans must include input from many other elements of a society.
We can encourage the IMF (and World Bank) to reverse the typical procedure in setting conditions for multilateral loans. Instead
of waiting for it to specify the policies that must be followed to justify additional financing, country economic teams, in consultation
with other agencies of their government, should be allowed to propose economic programs to the IMF. Disagreements between Washington
staff assessments and the local teams could be resolved directly or by third-party arbitration. The scope of economic conditionality
could also be restricted, for example, just to a balance-of-payments target, while the country could pursue its own agenda regarding
inflation, income distribution, and growth.
What Christians can do
A primary part of the "principalities and powers" referred to in the Bible is composed of the political-economic institutions
and processes that govern how people relate economically to each other and to God's whole creation. The church has a stake in their
design. Yet many church members feel powerless to change basic political-economic reality. They think either that the economic conditions
of society result "naturally" from the forces of markets that are only marginally within the power of human control, or that economic
conditions result from powerful interests that are beyond the reach of ordinary citizens. Thus, there's nothing that can be done
about it, or there's nothing we can do about it.
On the contrary, Mobilization for the Human Family believes that the political economy is shaped by deliberate social policy
decisions; that conditions at any given time are the result of those decisions; that conditions can be changed by human decisions;
and that the will of a nation's and the world's citizens about what the commitments and purposes of the nation and the world should
be can be expressed in the political economy through the framework of democratic process provided in our national and transnational
polity. Accordingly, we offer below some suggestions for action that may be taken by individual Christians and by our churches and
their denominations to correct some correctable flaws of financial globalization.
Actions by individual Christian
Pray for persons working in governments, international organizations, institutions, and non-governmental organizations who
are trying to work toward a better world, including especially a world financial architecture that better assures fairness in
capital markets.
In the management of personal and family investments, seek fuller understanding of the uses to which the banks, companies,
mutual funds, and investment counselors are putting your money. Avoid speculative investments that are likely to be made without
regard to their consequences for others.
Reflect upon decisions about work and career choices that are consistent with a Christ-like commitment to economic justice
for all.
Organize Bible study in your local congregation, where possible together with people of other backgrounds and life-styles,
to learn and identify with God's continuing struggle to seek economic justice in the world.
Commit oneself to some voluntary organization that is trying to promote greater economic justice in the local and/or global
economy.
Become involved politically in your area or nation, seeking political and economic change in the direction of economic justice.
Actions by churches and denominations
Concern for economic justice must be fully reflected in the prayer life, worship, and educational programs and mission outreach
of all congregations.
Seek assistance from members who work for banks, brokerage houses, and mutual funds to help mould an educational program
that will assist members of the congregation to become more socially responsible investors.
Seek collaborative programs among clusters of congregations, perhaps with the aid of local Councils of Churches, to provide
educational opportunities where Christians and other faith groups can come to understand some of the complex economic issues
amidst which they live and work. Since virtually nothing is now available to explain the problems of financial speculation,
this paper could be used to assist study of this phenomenon.
Over and beyond educational programs, local churches - again perhaps best working together in the same neighborhood or town
- can enter into a deliberate dialogue or partnership with one or more voluntary bodies in the civic society, so as to put their
energies into the health of the wider society. Engagement with the International Forum on Globalization (l009 General Kennedy
Avenue #2, San Francisco, CA 94129) is a good way to explore the means of influencing the debate on the globalization of trade
and finance.
At the denominational level, churches should review their investment criteria to reassure themselves that social responsibility
is a primary goal of their financial management.
Also at the denominational level, agencies responsible for the formation of social witness policies need to monitor global
economic indicators on a continuing basis in order to assist its programmatic agencies to form effective and timely social witness
regarding the local and national consequences of the globalization of trade and finance.
Want to know more?
Globalization is a vast topic. For a general introduction, see Sarah Anderson and John Cavanagh, Field Guide to the Global Economy
(New York: New Press, 2000) and Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization (New York: Farrar Straus
Giroux, 1999). A classic introduction to the financial side of globalization is Susan Strange, Casino Capitalism, (New York: Mnchester
University Press, 1986). See also Kavaljit Singh, The Globalisation of Finance: A Citizen's Guide (London: Zed Books, 1999) and
John Eatwell and Lance Taylor, Global Finance at Risk: The Case for International Regulation (New York: The New Press, 2000). The
best introduction to the Tobin Tax is Mahbub ul Haq et al (eds), The Tobin Tax: Coping with Financial Volatility (New York: Oxford
University Press, 1996). For how church people might react, see Pamela Brubaker, Globalization at What Price? (Cleveland: Pilgrim
Press, 2001).
Questions For Discussion
How have the linkages and interconnections of international finance impacted your life? On balance, do you regard them as
advantages or disadvantages for a healthy Christian life?
The frequency and severity of recent financial crises have fueled calls for a radical redesign of the rules of global finance.
If you were the advisor to an international commission asked to design "A New International Financial Architecture," what would
you recommend?
Do you favor allowing sovereign nations to declare bankruptcy? What Christian traditions might be invoked to support or
deny such an action?
A growing number of civil society institutions oppose giving more money to the IMF. They point out that it is part of the
Washington Consensus, the application of whose policies have made societies adjuncts of the market. Yet this paper suggests
that the IMF needs more money. As a committed Christian, which view do you favor?
Is it too late to expect justice in a globalizing world? Since much of the direction the global economy has taken is irreversible,
how can a balance between market and society be negotiated? How might Christians play a role in those negotiations?
Up early today and lit the shop woodstove; just waiting for light to get on with my day which
always starts (after chores) with my dog and I going for a walk.
Ron, I do not disagree with your post or comments, with the exception of when population
will peak and the aspect/timing of social disruption?
On this morning wait for daylight I have been reading various blog sites with CNN ticking
over in the background. Maybe it is the speed of the news cycle and my being used to the
insanity of what is being reported, but today, after seeing the Trump tweets on Muslim
Violence (film clips), the so-called tax plan, sexual misconducts, the recent reports on KSA,
Yemen, Syria, and what is ramping up concerning North Korea, I think we are at a crux right
now. I think there will be a Market collapse and war; perhaps global in scale. Further to
that I don't see any desire or mechanism for defusing tensions or a way to recall the
situation.
I am 62 and was a kid during a recent/last big social reset. I had older sibs and parents
who moved us north to Canada in '68 because they had had enough. My WW2 veteran parents
proclaimed they had seen enough to be afraid, and sold out to start over and build new lives.
While I was thinking about it, and your post, I realized that in today's situation there are
no simple answers and not really any places to run to. It seems different because of the
population numbers and armaments, plus the willingness of people to pretend it's just
'tribal/crooked politics as usual'. Then, I thought about photographs and how a few
catapulted us into rapid change last century. Certainly, the haunted faces of the Dust Bowl
sparked a move towards reform. Images from the south and the stories of the KKK perhaps Rosa
Parks herself helped galvanize the Civil Rights Movement. For me, the image of the young lady
holding the dead student at Kent State, (her anguish), the burning Monk and young girl coated
with napalm coupled with the lie about the Gulf of Tonkin incident pushed me into cynicism;
so much that I was not surprised about the non-existent WMD of Iraq.
Perhaps it won't be an image, or story that we look back to as a turning point. Maybe it
will be a tweet. Maybe it will be the Market collapse or a premptive attack on North Korea
that sets everything in motion. I just think we are loaded and tamped down like a pipe bomb
ready to blow.
I do not think we will continue to grow in population until 2050. I think it could start
to unravel pretty fast and any day. I don't see any step back from war(s) in either the ME,
or Korea.
From Wiki: (just one event that pales alongside today's triggers)
Kent State
"Just five days after the shootings, 100,000 people demonstrated in Washington, D.C.,
against the war and the killing of unarmed student protesters. Ray Price, Nixon's chief
speechwriter from 1969 to 1974, recalled the Washington demonstrations saying, "The city was
an armed camp. The mobs were smashing windows, slashing tires, dragging parked cars into
intersections, even throwing bedsprings off overpasses into the traffic down below. This was
the quote, student protest. That's not student protest, that's civil war."[10] Not only was
Nixon taken to Camp David for two days for his own protection, but Charles Colson (Counsel to
President Nixon from 1969 to 1973) stated that the military was called up to protect the
administration from the angry students; he recalled that "The 82nd Airborne was in the
basement of the executive office building, so I went down just to talk to some of the guys
and walk among them, and they're lying on the floor leaning on their packs and their helmets
and their cartridge belts and their rifles cocked and you're thinking, 'This can't be the
United States of America. This is not the greatest free democracy in the world. This is a
nation at war with itself.'"
I apologize if this seems North American centric; and in blinders. I wish to reiterate
that our population numbers, plus increasing divide and disparity, proliferation of weapons
and intolerance, coupled with environmental degradation and Climate Change, makes this much
much worse. It's a gun waiting for a trigger, imho.
Yes, things are pretty bad. But things were bad during the Kent State/Nixon era. Yet we
survived.
It has been my experience, following this biosphere destruction for many years now, that
people who see and understand the destruction, almost always expect things to fall apart real
soon. They never do.
I once spent several months as a stockbroker. One thing I learned during that period was a
truth about insider traders. That is traders who trade the stock of the company they work for.
They see things happening inside their company and expect it to cause great trouble or great
profit. They are almost always right and almost always way too early with their predictions.
Things just never seem to happen as fast as they expected.
We, you and I and a few others, are insiders to this problem that I have described in my
above post. We know something terrible is going to happen. But most of us expect it to happen
way before it actually will happen.
An example is "The Population Bomb" by Paul Ehrlich. I think he was spot on, but things just
did not happen as fast as he expected. I hope to avoid his mistake.
Yep, Ron, and we need to be careful about saying "this time is different". Perhaps we need a
list of things that really are different this time.
One that should be obvious to anyone paying attention is that, in the late 60s, US debt to
GDP was in the mid 30% range. It is now over 100% according to a number of sources. As Gail T.
is wont to say, unserviceable debt will likely be the trigger that results in a cascading
failure of financial systems, and everything else is likely to follow. In short, our financial
house of cards has grown three-fold in 50 years, as the global reserve currency is tagged to
nothing.
I think the debt problem is a little overblown. Now people use debt differently sometimes
implying "total debt" and sometimes "public debt" and sometimes "central government debt".
Which one are you talking about? I don't read Tverberg's stuff. Looking at your numbers and the
link below
They have been over 100% debt to GDP since 1999 and have been around 200% since 2014.
If Japan has collapsed, I missed it. Note that I agree with the idea that when the US
economy is doing well (which at present is the case), that paying down debt is a better idea
than reducing taxes. I would raise taxes if anything ( a carbon tax would be ideal) and reduce
the deficit to less than zero and pay down the debt.
Or just balance the budget and let economic growth reduce the debt to GDP ratio.
As for Japan, most of what they owe is to themselves while they own a lot of that US debt,
above. Japan also uses the carry trade to stay afloat.
I only posted this as being one of the things that is different about our situation ~50
years ago. People can make of it what they will. I personally think it is significant since the
world runs on credit. No credit, no growth.
Hard to imagine no credit. Also in the 1960s there was less borrowing by the government (so
less credit) and higher growth rates (at least in the US) than today. In the old days there was
concern the government would "crowd out" private debt, as if there was some fixed amount of
debt the system could sustain and the system always remained at this maximum debt level.
Instead it seems the system had room for higher levels of debt as government debt as
increased, but there is little evidence of "crowding out". There may be some maximum debt level
that an economy can sustain and Japan may be there. Also note that 50 years ago debt was at
fairly low levels, but in 1946 Debt to GDP was 118% of GDP, rapid economic growth from 1946 to
1974 reduced this debt to GDP to 31%, by 1992 it was at 61%, and in 2016 it was 105%.
Strange that the Republicans want to raise the debt higher by cutting taxes, this made sense
when the economy was doing poorly during the Obama years and the aftermath of the GFC.
I agree debt could become a problem and would be worried if central government debt to GDP
was 200% (as in Japan).
I also don't buy into the unfunded liabilities argument, laws change and governments don't
always fulfill their promises, that is just a fact of life.
Personally I believe Tverberg is a person who has discovered a niche she can exploit and is
making a living out of it. I had the pleasure of seeing her make her canned presentation at a
conference once, where all the presentations were repeated several times over for three days so
the entire attending crowd could see them all.
If you ask her a real question, she seizes up like a deer in headlights. She knows some
elementary level stuff that is worth some thought, in the case of people who know little or
nothing about the overall economy and environment.
Her answer in the case of a real question is the same answer you get from a politician who
doesn't WANT to answer. She just pretends you asked a DIFFERENT question, and provides a stock
answer to THAT question.
She doesn't have anything to say worth listening to , in terms of the level of understanding
of the contributing members of this forum.
UK government debt to GDP was well over 400% for decades running; it was never a problem. Don't
worry about it. Government debt is not really debt, it's actually money.
Good point on the rate. I remember my grade 11 Social Studies teacher talking to me after class
in 1972. One of our class texts was The Population Bomb. He expected to see, in his lifetime, a
collapse of sorts. When I asked him to expand further he described small scale gardens/farms of
no more the 2 acres. The primary machinery used would be walk-behind tractors.
I smiled at the memory when I bought my BCS walk-behind ten years ago. I smile every spring
when I till the gardens. I still think he was right, just off on the timing (just like I was
when I got out of stocks several years ago and put my money in term deposits.)
The older I get, the less I understand. I take comfort in knowing my Dad wouldn't get it,
either.
I thought Ehrlich's book "The Dominant Animal" was fairly well measured, and generally in line
with the post above (I haven't read the population bomb).
This was written a decade ago. neoliberalism is a stable social system but nothing changed, although fault lines of the system
became more evident.
Notable quotes:
"... "The prototype of the successful man in modern society is not the scientist, the inventor, the scholar. It is the financier, the gambler and those with social pull. The others share [in the winnings] sometimes, it is true, but their share is modest compared with the oligarchs and tycoons; and they don't usually keep their share for long. They are no match for the commercial prowlers." ..."
"... Mr Monks contrasted businesses' healthy profitability with the ruthless way some have treated their staff recently, whether through large-scale redundancies or the constant threat that jobs may be sent off-shore or outsourced. While median wages have stagnated, record executive salaries are legion. ..."
"... he was appalled by the increasingly "shameless", short-termist behaviour of overpaid corporate executives. "More and more they resemble the Bourbons - and they should be aware of what eventually happened to the Bourbons." ..."
"... "All this is too important to be left to the practitioners who have a vested interest in obscuring what they do from the rest of us," he said. And, with bonus season fast approaching, he took one final, sweeping aim at the high rollers of "casino capitalism". Their actions are "dangerous to economic stability, traditional industry and jobs", he said. "I would like to see the City pages of the press more challenging and less respectful on these matters . . . Our future - the world's future - is too important to place in the hands of the new capitalists." ..."
"... Half a century ago, Nye Bevan expressed a similar concern. In In Place of Fear he wrote: "There is a sense of injustice in modern society, and this induces a feeling of instability even in normal circumstances. The rewards are not in keeping with social worth, and the consciousness of this, both among the successful and the unsuccessful, will simmer and bubble, blowing up into geysers of political and social disturbance in times of economic stress." ..."
"The prototype of the successful man in modern society is not the scientist, the inventor, the scholar. It is the financier, the
gambler and those with social pull. The others share [in the winnings] sometimes, it is true, but their share is modest compared
with the oligarchs and tycoons; and they don't usually keep their share for long. They are no match for the commercial prowlers."
A snap-shot of London's Mayfair district, home to the burgeoning hedge-fund phenomenon, in November 2006? Actually, no. The above
words were written in 1952 by the Labour politician Aneurin Bevan in his book In Place of Fear. Bevan had a gift - his most
passionate supporters would say a genius - for exposing the truth of a situation in language that could be both scintillating and
pungent.
Fifty years ago, he criticised the prime minister of the day, Sir Anthony Eden, for his reckless actions during the Suez crisis.
"[He] has been pretending that he is now invading Egypt in order to strengthen the United Nations," Bevan said in a famous speech
in Trafalgar Square. "Every burglar of course could say the same thing: he could argue that he was entering the house in order to
train the police. So, if Sir Anthony Eden is sincere in what he is saying, and he may be . . . then he is too stupid to be a prime
minister!" Here was political rhetoric with a touch of prophesy about it.
It was the enduring appeal of speeches such as these that helped draw a good crowd to the fifth annual Bevan memorial lecture
in London last week. The lecture was to be given by John Monks, formerly general secretary of the British Trades Union Congress,
now the Brussels-based leader of the European trade union confederation.
No one in the audience would have been expecting Bevanite rhetorical fireworks from Mr Monks. That has never been his style. Between
1993 and 2003, he led the British trade union movement with modesty and distinction. He was the moderate's moderate: avoiding confrontation
wherever possible and advocating partnership at work between management and employees. Business leaders were happy to do business
with him.
They would not have found this lecture so easy to deal with. Confronted by today's turbo-charged capitalism, Mr Monks cast off
his former moderation. He even seemed to be on the verge of recanting his commitment to the partnership model. "Partnership with
who?" he asked. There has been, he said, a "disintegration of the social nexus between worker and employer - a culture containing
broad social rights and obligations. The new capitalism wants none of it."
Mr Monks contrasted businesses' healthy profitability with the ruthless way some have treated their staff recently, whether through
large-scale redundancies or the constant threat that jobs may be sent off-shore or outsourced. While median wages have stagnated,
record executive salaries are legion.
He admitted that he had possibly been a bit naive in the past. "I did not fully appreciate what was happening on the other side
of the table," Mr Monks said. While he sympathised with business leaders for the relentless pressure they find themselves under -
"It cannot be easy running a firm . . . when you are up for sale every day and every night of every year" - he was appalled by the
increasingly "shameless", short-termist behaviour of overpaid corporate executives. "More and more they resemble the Bourbons
- and they should be aware of what eventually happened to the Bourbons."
For someone like me, who has sat through 10 years of reasonableness from John Monks, this speech was remarkable, devastating stuff.
Maybe there is something in the Brussels water. Perhaps the ghost of Nye Bevan was speaking through him. Or was it just anxiety over
the career choice of his daughter's boyfriend? He is now working for - you guessed it - a hedge fund. Whatever its cause, a challenge
was being thrown down.
"All this is too important to be left to the practitioners who have a vested interest in obscuring what they do from the rest
of us," he said. And, with bonus season fast approaching, he took one final, sweeping aim at the high rollers of "casino capitalism".
Their actions are "dangerous to economic stability, traditional industry and jobs", he said. "I would like to see the City pages
of the press more challenging and less respectful on these matters . . . Our future - the world's future - is too important
to place in the hands of the new capitalists."
Will corporate leaders - those that have read this far anyway - simply shrug their shoulders and get back to their slashing and
burning ways? Is Mr Monks merely offering a wholly predictable, knee-jerk, lefty rant? I do not think so. This general secretary
just does not do lefty rants. So business people should take note. When the John Monkses of this world say enough is enough, that
the capitalist system itself is sick, you can be sure that elsewhere in the world there is deep-seated, lingering resentment and
unhappiness.
Half a century ago, Nye Bevan expressed a similar concern. In In Place of Fear he wrote: "There is a sense of injustice
in modern society, and this induces a feeling of instability even in normal circumstances. The rewards are not in keeping
with social worth, and the consciousness of this, both among the successful and the unsuccessful, will simmer and bubble, blowing
up into geysers of political and social disturbance in times of economic stress."
Reading these words, you can see why so many people were prepared to come out on a dark Tuesday night...
Susan Strange, who died just after the publication of her latest book, was one of the most compelling academic advocates
of the view that the global casino is out of control.
Notable quotes:
"... Susan Strange, who died just after the publication of her latest book, was one of the most compelling academic advocates of the view that the global casino is out of control. Although she is not a household name, she played an important role in developing the intellectual framework to support the casino thesis. Her Casino Capitalism (1986) is a Keynesian account of the damage inflicted on the world as a result of financial deregulation which was taken up by many better known writers such as William Greider in the US and Will Hutton in Britain. ..."
"... Mad Money, the sequel to Casino Capitalism, takes into account the impact of information technology and the rise of financial crime. It also places new emphasis on the role of international institutions. For example, she backs George Soros's plan for an international credit insurance corporation as a complement to the IMF. ..."
The dominant image of the financial markets is that of a giant casino. Brash young men in red braces, driven by insatiable greed,
gamble with huge sums every day. When the bets go wrong the innocent suffer. Reckless financial markets pose an immediate threat
to the future prosperity of humanity.
Susan Strange, who died just after the publication of her latest book, was one of the most compelling academic advocates
of the view that the global casino is out of control. Although she is not a household name, she played an important role
in developing the intellectual framework to support the casino thesis. Her Casino Capitalism (1986) is a Keynesian account of the
damage inflicted on the world as a result of financial deregulation which was taken up by many better known writers such as William
Greider in the US and Will Hutton in Britain.
With the onset of the Asian financial crisis Strange's account of financial markets has become almost mainstream. Her ideas inform
many of the discussions about a "new international financial architecture." Economists who would once have scorned her views
now agree with her that deregulation has gone too far and that new forms of regulation are needed.
The British government has floated the idea of a world financial authority to regulate global finance.
The IMF, once a bastion of
free market economics, has conceded that capital controls may be necessary under some circumstances.
Mad Money, the sequel to Casino Capitalism, takes into account the impact of information technology and the rise of financial
crime. It also places new emphasis on the role of international institutions. For example, she backs George Soros's plan for an
international credit insurance corporation as a complement to the IMF.
"... Barbarians at the Gate: The Fall of RJR Nabisco ..."
"... The Wall Street Journal ..."
"... The triumph of gossip over substance is manifest in many other ways. Wall Street's deft manipulation of the business press is barely touched upon, and the laissez-faire ..."
"... Fulminations about the socially corrosive effects of greed aside, the buyout phenomenon may represent one of the biggest changes in the way American business is conducted since the rise of the public corporation, nothing less than a transformation of managerial into financial capitalism. The ferocious market for corporate control that emerged during the 1980s has few parallels in business history, but there are two: the trusts that formed early in this century and the conglomerate mania that swept corporate America during the 1960s. Both waves resulted in large social and economic costs, and there is little assurance that the corporate infatuation with debt will not exact a similarly heavy toll. ..."
"... the high levels of debt associated with buyouts and other forms of corporate restructuring create fragility in business structures and vulnerability to economic cycles ..."
"... Germany and Japan incur higher levels of debt for expansion and investment, whereas equivalent American indebtedness is linked to the recent market for corporate control. That creates a brittle structure, one that threatens to turn the U.S. government into something of an ultimate guarantor if and when things do fall about. It is too easy to construct a scenario in which corporate indebtedness forces the federal government into the business of business. The savings-and-loan bailout is a painfully obvious harbinger of such a development. ..."
"... The many ramifications of the buyout mania deserve thoughtful treatment. Basic issues of corporate governance and accountability ought to be openly debated and resolved if the American economy is to deliver the maximum benefit to society and not just unconscionable rewards to a handful of bankers, all out of proportion to their social productivity. It is disappointing, but a sign of the times, that the best book about the deal of deals fails to educate as well as it entertains. ..."
Inside Casino Capitalism Barbarians at the Gate: The Fall of RJR Nabisco
By Bryan Burrough and John Helyar
Harper & Row. 528 pp. $22.95
In 1898, Adolphus Green, chairman of the National Biscuit Company, found himself faced with the task of choosing a trademark for
his newly formed baking concern. Green was a progressive businessman. He refused to employ child labor, even though it was then
a common practice, and he offered his bakery employees the option to buy stock at a discount. Green therefore thought that his trademark
should symbolize Nabisco's fundamental business values, "not merely to make dividends for the stockholders of his company, but to
enhance the general prosperity and the moral sentiment of the United States." Eventually he decided that a cross with two bars and
an oval – a medieval symbol representing the triumph of the moral and spiritual over the base and material – should grace the package
of every Nabisco product.
If they had wracked their brains for months, Bryan Burrough and John Helyar could not have come up with
a more ironic metaphor for their book. The fall of Nabisco, and its corporate partner R.J. Reynolds, is nothing less than the exact
opposite of Green's business credo, a compelling tale of corporate and Wall Street greed featuring RJR Nabisco officers who first
steal shareholders blind and then justify their epic displays of avarice by claiming to maximize shareholder value.
The event which made the RJR Nabisco story worth telling was the 1988 leveraged buyout (LBO) of the mammoth tobacco and food
conglomerate, then the 19th-largest industrial corporation in America. Battles for corporate control were common during the loosely
regulated 1980s, and the LBO was just one method for capturing the equity of a corporation. (In a typical LBO, a small group of
top management and investment bankers put 10 percent down and finance the rest of their purchase through high-interest loans or
bonds. If the leveraged, privately-owned corporation survives, the investors, which they can re-sell public shares, reach the so-called
"pot of gold"; but if the corporation cannot service its debt, everything is at risk, because the collateral is the corporation
itself.
The sheer size of RJR Nabisco and the furious bidding war that erupted guaranteed unusual public scrutiny of this particular
piece of financial engineering. F. Ross Johnson, the conglomerate's flamboyant, free-spending CEO (RJR had its own corporate airline),
put his own company into play with a $75-a-share bid in October. Experienced buyout artists on Wall Street, however, immediately
realized that Johnson was trying to play two incompatible games. LBOs typically put corporations such as RJR Nabisco through a ringer
in order to pay the mammoth debt incurred after a buyout. But Johnson, desiring to keep corporate perquisites intact, "low-balled"
his offer. Other buyout investors stepped forward with competing bids, and after a six-week-long auction the buyout boutique of
Kohlberg, Kravis, Roberts & Company (KKR) emerged on top with a $109-a-share bid. The $25-billion buyout took its place as one of
the defining business events of the 1980s
Burrough and Helyar, who covered the story for The Wall Street Journal, supply a breezy, colorful, blow-by-blow account
of the "deal from hell" (as one businessman characterized a leveraged buyout). The language of Wall Street, full of incongruous
"Rambo" jargon from the Vietnam War, is itself arresting. Buyout artists, who presumably never came within 10,000 miles of wartime
Saigon, talk about "napalming" corporate perquisites or liken their strategy to "charging through the rice paddies, not stopping
for anything and taking no prisoners."
At the time, F. Ross Johnson was widely pilloried in the press as the embodiment of excess; his conflict of interest was obvious.
Yet Burrough and Helyar show that Johnson, for all his free-spending ways, was way over his head in the major leagues of greed,
otherwise known as Wall Street in the 1980s. What, after all, is more rapacious: the roughly $100 million Johnson stood to gain
if his deal worked out over five years, or the $45 million in expenses KKR demanded for waiting 60 minutes while Ross Johnson prepared
a final competing bid?
Barbarians is, in the parlance of the publishing world, a good read. At the same time, unfortunately, a disclaimer
issued by the authors proves only too true. Anyone looking for a definitive judgment of LBOs will be disappointed. Burrough and
Helyar do at least ask the pertinent question: What does all this activity have to do with building and sustaining a business? But
authors should not only pose questions; they should answer them, or at least try.
Admittedly, the single most important answer to the RJR puzzle could not be provided by Burrough and Helyar because it
is not yet known. The major test of any financial engineering is its effect on the long-term vitality of the leveraged corporation,
as measured by such key indicators as market share (and not just whether the corporation survives its debt, as the authors imply).
However, a highly-leveraged RJR Nabisco is already selling off numerous profitable parts of its business because they are no longer
a "strategic fit": Wall Street code signifying a need for cash in order to service debts and avoid bankruptcy.
If the authors were unable to predict the ultimate outcome, they still had a rare opportunity to explain how
and why an LBO is engineered. Unfortunately, their fixation on re-creating events and dialogue – which admittedly produces a fast-moving
book – forced them to accept the issues as defined by the participants themselves. There is no other way to explain the book's uncritical
stance. When, for example, the RJR Nabisco board of directors tried to decide which bid to accept, Burrough and Helyar report that
several directors sided with KKR's offer because the LBO boutique "knew the value of keeping [employees] happy." It is impossible
to tell from the book whether the directors knew this to be true or took KKR's word. Even a cursory investigation would have revealed
that KKR is notorious for showing no concern for employees below senior management after a leveraged buyout.
The triumph of gossip over substance is manifest in many other ways. Wall Street's deft manipulation of the business press is
barely touched upon, and the laissez-faire environment procured by buyout artists via their political contributions is
scarcely mentioned, crucial though it is. Nowhere are the authors' priorities more obvious than in the number of words devoted to
Henry Kravis's conspicuous consumption compared to those devoted to the details of the RJR deal. In testimony before Congress last
year, no less an authority than Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady – himself an old Wall Street hand – noted that the substitution
of tax-deductible debt for taxable income is "the mill in which the grist of takeover premiums is ground."
In the case of RJR Nabisco, 81 percent of the $9.9 billion premium paid to shareholders was derived from tax breaks achievable
after the buyout. This singularly important fact cannot be found in the book, however; nor will a reader learn that after the buyout
the U.S. Treasury was obligated to refund RJR as much as $1 billion because of its post-buyout debt burden. In Barbarians,
more time is spent describing Kravis's ostentatious gifts to his fashion-designer wife than to the tax considerations that make
or break these deals.
Fulminations about the socially corrosive effects of greed aside, the buyout phenomenon may represent one of the biggest changes
in the way American business is conducted since the rise of the public corporation, nothing less than a transformation of managerial
into financial capitalism. The ferocious market for corporate control that emerged during the 1980s has few parallels in business
history, but there are two: the trusts that formed early in this century and the conglomerate mania that swept corporate America
during the 1960s. Both waves resulted in large social and economic costs, and there is little assurance that the corporate infatuation
with debt will not exact a similarly heavy toll.
As the economist Henry Kaufman has written, the high levels of debt associated with buyouts and other forms of corporate restructuring
create fragility in business structures and vulnerability to economic cycles. Inexorably, the shift away from equity invites the
close, even intrusive involvement of institutional investors (banks, pension funds, and insurance companies) that provide the financing.
Superficially, this moves America closer to the system that prevails in Germany and Japan, where historically the relationship between
the suppliers and users of capital is close. But Germany and Japan incur higher levels of debt for expansion and investment, whereas
equivalent American indebtedness is linked to the recent market for corporate control. That creates a brittle structure, one that
threatens to turn the U.S. government into something of an ultimate guarantor if and when things do fall about. It is too easy to
construct a scenario in which corporate indebtedness forces the federal government into the business of business. The savings-and-loan
bailout is a painfully obvious harbinger of such a development.
The many ramifications of the buyout mania deserve thoughtful treatment. Basic issues of corporate governance and accountability
ought to be openly debated and resolved if the American economy is to deliver the maximum benefit to society and not just unconscionable
rewards to a handful of bankers, all out of proportion to their social productivity. It is disappointing, but a sign of the times,
that the best book about the deal of deals fails to educate as well as it entertains.
The Phillips Curve is back. In saying so, I do not mean to imply that being "back" refers to
a sudden reappearance of a stable empirical relationship between unemployment (or the output
gap) and inflation. The Phillips Curve is back in the same way that conspiracy theories about
the assassination of JFK are back after the recent release of government documents. In other
words, the Phillips Curve is something that people desperately want to believe in, despite the
lack of evidence.
The Phillips Curve is all the rage among central bankers. Since the Federal Reserve embarked
on quantitative easing, they have been ensuring the public that QE would not be inflationary
because of the slack in the economy. Until labor market conditions tighten, there would be
little threat of inflation. Then, as the labor market tightened, the Federal Reserve warned
that they might have to start raising interest rates to prevent these tightening conditions
from creating inflation.
What is remarkable about this period is that the Federal Reserve has undershot its target
rate of inflation throughout this entire period -- and continues to do so today. So what does
this tell us about the Phillips Curve and what can we learn about monetary policy?
If one looks at the data on unemployment and inflation (or even the output gap and
inflation), you could
more easily draw Orion the Hunter as you could a stable Phillips Curve. Fear not,
sophisticated advocates of the Phillips Curve will say. This is simply the Lucas Critique at
play here. If a Phillips Curve exists, and if the central bank tries to exploit it, then it
will not be evident in the data. In fact, if you take a really basic 3-equation-version of the
New Keynesian model, there is a New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the model. However, when you
solve for the equilibrium conditions, you find that inflation is a function of demand shocks,
technology shocks, and unexpected changes in interest rates. The output gap doesn't appear in
the solution. But fear not, this simply means that monetary policy is working properly. The
Phillips Curve is apparently like the observer effect in quantum mechanics in that when we try
to observe the Phillips Curve, we change the actual result (this is a joke, please do not leave
comments about why I've misunderstood the observer effect).
... ... ...
What all of this means is that even given the fact that the New Keynesian model features an
equation that resembles the Phillips curve, this does not imply that there is some predictive
power that comes from thinking about this equation in isolation. In addition, it certainly does
not imply that changes in the output gap cause changes in the rate of inflation. There
is no direction of causation implied by this one equilibrium condition.
"... This Note argues that the current framework in antitrust-specifically its pegging competition to "consumer welfare," defined as short-term price effects-is unequipped to capture the architecture of market power in the modern economy. We cannot cognize the potential harms to competition posed by Amazon's dominance if we measure competition primarily through price and output. ..."
"... This Note maps out facets of Amazon's dominance. Doing so enables us to make sense of its business strategy, illuminates anticompetitive aspects of Amazon's structure and conduct, and underscores deficiencies in current doctrine. The Note closes by considering two potential regimes for addressing Amazon's power: restoring traditional antitrust and competition policy principles or applying common carrier obligations and duties. ..."
Amazon is the titan of twenty-first century commerce. In addition to being a retailer, it is now a marketing platform, a delivery
and logistics network, a payment service, a credit lender, an auction house, a major book publisher, a producer of television
and films, a fashion designer, a hardware manufacturer, and a leading host of cloud server space. Although Amazon has clocked
staggering growth, it generates meager profits, choosing to price below-cost and expand widely instead. Through this strategy,
the company has positioned itself at the center of e-commerce and now serves as essential infrastructure for a host of other businesses
that depend upon it. Elements of the firm's structure and conduct pose anticompetitive concerns -- yet it has escaped antitrust
scrutiny.
This Note argues that the current framework in antitrust-specifically its pegging competition to "consumer welfare," defined
as short-term price effects-is unequipped to capture the architecture of market power in the modern economy. We cannot cognize
the potential harms to competition posed by Amazon's dominance if we measure competition primarily through price and output.
Specifically, current doctrine underappreciates the risk of predatory pricing and how integration across distinct business
lines may prove anticompetitive. These concerns are heightened in the context of online platforms for two reasons. First, the
economics of platform markets create incentives for a company to pursue growth over profits, a strategy that investors have rewarded.
Under these conditions, predatory pricing becomes highly rational-even as existing doctrine treats it as irrational and therefore
implausible. Second, because online platforms serve as critical intermediaries, integrating across business lines positions these
platforms to control the essential infrastructure on which their rivals depend. This dual role also enables a platform to exploit
information collected on companies using its services to undermine them as competitors.
This Note maps out facets of Amazon's dominance. Doing so enables us to make sense of its business strategy, illuminates anticompetitive
aspects of Amazon's structure and conduct, and underscores deficiencies in current doctrine. The Note closes by considering two
potential regimes for addressing Amazon's power: restoring traditional antitrust and competition policy principles or applying
common carrier obligations and duties.
And I feel like the Democrats get so distracted. They have been talking about sexual
harassment and stuff instead of the TAX BILL. It is so damn easy to get them to take their
eyes off the ball! and get played again and again. . . and TRAGIC given the consequences . .
.
It's the perfect "distraction". Allows them to engage in virtue-signaling and "fighting
for average Americans". It's all phony, they always "lose" in the end getting exactly what
they wanted in the first place, while not actually having to cast a vote for it.
It's all related, less safety net and more inequality means more desperation to take a
job, *ANY* job, means more women putting up with sexual harassment (and workplace bullying
and horrible and illegal workplace conditions etc.) as the price of a paycheck.
Horrible Toomey's re-election was a parallel to the Clinton/Trump fiasco. The Democrats
put up a corporate shill, Katie McGinty that no-one trusted.
"Former lobbyist Katie McGinty has spent three decades in politics getting rich off the
companies she regulated and subsidized. Now this master of the revolving-door wants
Pennsylvania voters to give her another perch in government: U.S. Senator." Washington
Examiner.
She was a Clintonite through and through, that everyone, much like $Hillary, could see
through.
To paraphrase the Beatles, you say you want a revolution but you don't really mean it. You
want more of the same because it makes you feel good to keep voting for your Senator or your
Congressman. The others are corrupt and evil, but your guys are good. If only the others were
like your guys. News flash: they are all your guys.
America is doomed. And so much the better. Despite all America has done for the world, it
has also been a brutal despot. America created consumerism, super-sizing and the Kardashians.
These are all unforgivable sins. America is probably the most persistently violent country in
the world both domestically and internationally. No other country has invaded or occupied so
much of the world, unless you count the known world in which case Macedonia wins.
This tax plan is what Americans want because they are pretty ignorant and stupid. They are
incapable of understanding basic math so they can't work out the details. They believe that
any tax cut is inherently good and all government is bad so that is also all that matters.
They honestly think they or their kids will one day be rich so they don't want to hurt rich
people. They also believe that millionaires got their money honestly and through hard work
because that is what they learned from their parents.
Just send a blank check to Goldman Sachs. Keep a bit to buy a gun which you can use to
either shoot up a McDonalds or blow your own brains out.
And some people still ask me why I left and don't want to come back. LOL
Macedonia of today is not the same are that conquered the world. They stole the name from
Greeks.
That being said, the US is ripe for a change. Every policy the current rulers enact seems
to make things better. However, I suspect a revolution would kill majority of the population
since it would disrupt the all important supply chains, so it does not seem viable.
However, a military takeover could be viable. If they are willing to wipe out the most
predatory portions of the ruling class, they could fix the healthcare system, install a
high-employment policy and take out the banks and even the military contractors. Which could
make them very popular.
Yeah, right. Have you seen our generals? They're just more of the same leeches we
have everywhere else in the 0.01%. Have you seen any of the other military dictatorships
around the world, like actually existing ones? They're all brilliantly corrupt and total
failures when it comes to running any sort of economy. Not to mention the total loss of civil
rights. Americans have this idiotic love of their military thanks to decades of effective
propaganda and think the rule of pampered generals would somehow be better than the right to
vote. Bleh.
This is a military dictatorship. The fourth and sixth amendments have been de facto
repealed. Trump cared about one thing and one thing only, namely to repeal the estate tax. He
is the ultimate con man and this was his biggest con. It is truly amazing how he accomplished
this. He has saved his family a billion $$$. He will now turn over governing to the generals
and Goldman Sachs. He may even retire. Truly amazing. One has to admire the sheer perversity
of it all. When will the American electorate get tired of being conned? The fact is they have
nothing but admiration for Trump. We live in a criminal culture, winner take all. America
loves its winners.
There is an old 2003 David Brooks column in which he mentions that
"The Democrats couldn't even persuade people to oppose the repeal of the estate tax, which
is explicitly for the mega-upper class. Al Gore, who ran a populist campaign, couldn't even
win the votes of white males who didn't go to college, whose incomes have stagnated over the
past decades and who were the explicit targets of his campaign. Why don't more Americans want
to distribute more wealth down to people like themselves?"
Then Brooks goes on to explain
"The most telling polling result from the 2000 election was from a Time magazine survey
that asked people if they are in the top 1 percent of earners. Nineteen percent of Americans
say they are in the richest 1 percent and a further 20 percent expect to be someday. So right
away you have 39 percent of Americans who thought that when Mr. Gore savaged a plan that
favored the top 1 percent, he was taking a direct shot at them."
The Republicans have conditioned people to believe government services (except for
defense/military) are run poorly and need to be "run like a business" for a profit.
The problem is that not all government services CAN be profitable (homeless care, mental
health care for the poor, EPA enforcement, OSHA enforcement). And when attempts are made to
privatize some government operations such as incarceration, the result is that the private
company tries to maximize profits by pushing for laws to incarcerate ever more people.
The history of the USA as viewed by outsiders, maybe 50 years hence, will be that of a
resource consuming nation that spent a vast fortune on military hardware and military
adventures when it had little to fear due to geography, a nation that touted an independent
press that was anything but, a nation that created a large media/entertainment industry which
helped to keep citizens in line, a nation that fostered an overly large (by 2 or 3 times per
Paul Whooley) parasitical financial industry that did not perform its prime capital
allocation task competently as it veered from bubble to bubble and a nation that managed to
spend great sums on medical care without covering all citizens.
But the USA does have a lot of guns and a lot of frustrated people.
Maybe Kevlar vests will be the fashion of the future?
The provision to do away with the estate tax, if not immediately, in the current versions
(House and Senate) is great news for the 1%, and bad for the rest of us.
And if more people are not against that (thanks for quoting the NYTImes article), it's the
failure of the rest of the media for not focusing more on it, but wasting time and energy on
fashion, sports, entertainment, etc.
he provision to do away with the estate tax . . . is great news for the 1%
I think it's even a little more extreme than that. The data is a few years old, but it is
only the top 0.6% who are affected by estate taxes in the United States. See the data at
these web sites:
The military adventures were largely in support of what Smedley Butler so accurately
called the Great "Racket" of Monroe Doctrine colonialism and rapacious extractive
"capitalism" aka "looting."
It took longer and costed the rich a bit more to buy up all the bits of government, but
the way they've done will likely be more compendious and lasting. Barring some "intervening
event(s)".
While Republicans show their true colors, im out there seeing a resurgence of civil
society. And im starting to reach Hard core Tea Party types. Jobs, Manufacturing, Actual
Policy.
The problem is that neoliberal ideology entered the state of the crisis in 2008 much like Bolshevik ideology entered the
crisis after WWII. The USSR managed to survive for another 50 years after that.
Notable quotes:
"... Multipolar is just that – leave exercise of power and responsibility as close to the local situation as possible. Brussels telling Poland who should be a TV presenter, or Washington deciding what people in rural Hungary should read is idiotic. What's the point of all this busy-body behaviour? It is always justified by some slogans about preventing 'human rights violations'. Right. We have seen the results – a lot more people have died and suffered because of 'humanitarian' interventions than from anything else in the last 20+ years. ..."
"... I do find the current rapprochement between Russia and the major Moslem states amusing. It goes beyond Turkey and Iran, Moscow is working all of them, Egypt, Sudan, I suspect it is a clever attempt to beat US at its own game – US has spent about four decades arming and unleashing any Islamic force it could find against Russians (and Slavs in general), using methods that were beyond brutal and hypocrisy that eventually backfired. Maybe turning it around is a good strategy. It is inconsistent, but when you fight extreme stupidity, often the only thing that works is to use more stupidity ..."
"... Orwell's vision is but one of the possibilities. Another is Armageddon. Yet another is a "(Failed) West and a multipolar Rest". The latter is what I think will actually happen in the near and medium term. Things being what they are, it may even be the best we can hope for. ..."
"... I don't see any other power than the West (=US) aspiring to 'manage the world'. Maybe some ISIS fanatics have the same dream, but they are not in a position to achieve it. West has 'managed' it very poorly: mindless interventions, wars, migrants, hypocrisy, threats and blackmail. ..."
"... The other 'powers' have very modest, regional aspirations. Russia or China really don't care that much who wins the elections in Portugal, or what regional papers write in Hungary – US seems to be obsessed with it. And the only justification that Western defenders offer when pressed is that 'there would be a vacuum' and 'Russians would move in'. This is obvious nonsense and only elderly paranoid Cold Warrior types believe it ..."
"... Europeans have been invited to join the Eurasian Project, to create a continental market from "Lisbon to Vladivostok". Latent dreams of Hegemony hold at least some of their elites back. ..."
"... The West rode an ahistorical rogue wave of development to a point just short of Global Hegemony. That wave broke, and is now rolling back out into the world leaving the West just short of its civilizational resource requirements. No way to get back on a broken wave. In any case, China now holds the $$$ hammer, and Russia holds the military hammer, and they've now got the surfboard. Both of them, led by historically aware elites, know that Hegemony doesn't work, so will focus on keeping their neck of the woods as stable & prosperous as possible while hell blazes elsewhere. ..."
"The same "hegemon with allies/vassals" as it is now, only in that case divided in
three"
Why? There is absolutely nothing about 'multipolar' that dictates three, or four
'hegemons', or even lists who would the 'multis' be. The idea is simply that most people,
most of the time are better off left alone.
Is that so hard to understand? Why should people in Washington (or Moscow, Beijing,
Brussels, ) be intimately involved with how others live their lives, with their fights and
alliances? Knowledge always dissipates with distance, and most of the 'masters of the
universe' are not that smart to start with.
Multipolar is just that – leave exercise of power and responsibility as close to the
local situation as possible. Brussels telling Poland who should be a TV presenter, or
Washington deciding what people in rural Hungary should read is idiotic. What's the point of
all this busy-body behaviour? It is always justified by some slogans about preventing 'human
rights violations'. Right. We have seen the results – a lot more people have died and
suffered because of 'humanitarian' interventions than from anything else in the last 20+
years.
I do find the current rapprochement between Russia and the major Moslem states amusing. It
goes beyond Turkey and Iran, Moscow is working all of them, Egypt, Sudan, I suspect it is a
clever attempt to beat US at its own game – US has spent about four decades arming and
unleashing any Islamic force it could find against Russians (and Slavs in general), using
methods that were beyond brutal and hypocrisy that eventually backfired. Maybe turning it
around is a good strategy. It is inconsistent, but when you fight extreme stupidity, often
the only thing that works is to use more stupidity
"The same "hegemon with allies/vassals" as it is now, only in that case divided in
three"
Why? There is absolutely nothing about 'multipolar' that dictates three, or four
'hegemons', or even lists who would the 'multis' be. The idea is simply that most people,
most of the time are better off left alone.
Peter's is the apocalyptic view made famous by Orwell. He may be right, it may all unravel
and Oceania, Eurasia & Eastasia run a classic 3-power calculus of shifting alliances in a
struggle for control of the "hinterlands". Not at all impossible, but certainly not what the
proponents of the multipolar world want.
The idea is much more than the notion that most people want to "be left alone". The
Multipolar world as it is actually being constructed by its proponents, from its monetary
structures to its security, commercial and trade regimes, is precisely the attempt to prevent
that Orwellian development in the face of Western decline. Their foundational tenet is that
Globalization as a world-historical trend is here to stay (for at least the next few
generations), and the "compartmentalization" of the world into alliances and hegemonies as
historically occurred is no longer a viable option. The 3 Orwellian powers are all nuclear
now, and the #1 priority is to mitigate the risk of war between them. Best to do that by
dissolving them into a matrix of commercial and developmental programs that they'd be loathe
to destroy.
EG: Though Russia considers both China and Iran "strategic partners", there is no formal
alliance with either of them, and there won't be. Alliances cannot be "forbidden", but the
countries that have signed onto the multipolar world program view alliances with
suspicion.
As a introduction to the coming multipolar world, Kupchan's Western-centric analysis is a
good place to start: https://www.amazon.com/No-Ones-World-Council-Relations/dp/0199325227 "Kupchan provides a detailed strategy for striking a bargain between the West and the
rising rest by fashioning a new consensus on issues of legitimacy, sovereignty, and
governance."
Assuming he even knows the least thing about what the multipolar world is trying to do,
Peter's view is that their attempt will fail. Maybe so.
To "fashion a new consensus on issues of legitimacy, sovereignty, and governance" requires
that the professional criminal class that grabbed the remains of Western power a decade and a
half ago has been forced to let go. If not, the world indeed faces an abyss.
Orwell's vision is but one of the possibilities. Another is Armageddon. Yet another is a
"(Failed) West and a multipolar Rest". The latter is what I think will actually happen in the
near and medium term. Things being what they are, it may even be the best we can hope
for.
"(Failed) West and a multipolar Rest". The latter is what I think will actually happen
in the near and medium term.
I think we already have it, except I don't think West has failed yet. Or it has in a way,
the process of failing goes on, but the consequences have not been felt much in the West
yet.
I don't see any other power than the West (=US) aspiring to 'manage the world'. Maybe some
ISIS fanatics have the same dream, but they are not in a position to achieve it. West has
'managed' it very poorly: mindless interventions, wars, migrants, hypocrisy, threats and
blackmail.
The other 'powers' have very modest, regional aspirations. Russia or China really don't
care that much who wins the elections in Portugal, or what regional papers write in Hungary
– US seems to be obsessed with it. And the only justification that Western defenders
offer when pressed is that 'there would be a vacuum' and 'Russians would move in'. This is
obvious nonsense and only elderly paranoid Cold Warrior types believe it (peterAUS?). What is
really going on is that West has over-reached and can barely handle its own problems. So they
scream 'Russians are coming' to distract, or to prolong the agony. Russians are not coming,
they don't care in 2017, they can barely control their huge territory today. More you see
squealing and lying in the Western media, more it shows that they have not much else to work
with.
"(Failed) West and a multipolar Rest". The latter is what I think will actually happen
in the near and medium term.
I think we already have it, except I don't think West has failed yet. Or it has in a
way, the process of failing goes on, but the consequences have not been felt much in the
West yet.
Well, exogenous events aside, "decline and fall" is necessarily a process. A series of
steps and plateaus is typical. A major step occurred in 2007/8, when the money failed. The
bankers, in a frankly heroic display of coordination, propped up the $$$ and the West got a
decade long plateau. Things are going wobbly again, financially speaking and I suspect the
next step function to occur rather soon. Stays of execution have been exhausted, so it'll be
interesting how the West handles it, and how the RoW reacts.
Europeans have been invited to join the Eurasian Project, to create a continental market from
"Lisbon to Vladivostok". Latent dreams of Hegemony hold at least some of their elites back.
The USA has also been invited, but its dreams remain much more virile. That is, until Trump
who's backers seem to read the writing on the wall better than the Straussians.
I don't see any other power than the West (=US) aspiring to 'manage the world' .
The other 'powers' have very modest, regional aspirations US seems to be obsessed with
it.
The fact is that the rise of the West to global dominance is due to a historical anomaly.
It was fuelled (literally) by the discovery and harnessing of the chemical energy embedded in
coal (late 18thC) and then oil (late 19thC). The first doubled the population, and as first
movers gave the West a running start. The second turned on the afterburners, and population
grew >3.5 fold. Again the West led the way. To fuel that ahistorical step-function growth
curve, control of resources on a global scale became its civilizational imperative.
That growth curve has plateaued, and the rest of the world has caught/is catching up
developmentally. The resources the West needs aren't going to be available to it in the way
they were 100 years ago. Them days is over, for everybody really, but especially for the West
because it has depleted its own hi-ROI resources, and both of its means of control (IMF$
System & U$M) of what's left of everybody else's are failing simultaneously. So its
plateau will not be flat, or not flat for long between increasingly violent steps.
The West rode an ahistorical rogue wave of development to a point just short of Global
Hegemony. That wave broke, and is now rolling back out into the world leaving the West just
short of its civilizational resource requirements. No way to get back on a broken wave. In
any case, China now holds the $$$ hammer, and Russia holds the military hammer, and they've
now got the surfboard. Both of them, led by historically aware elites, know that Hegemony
doesn't work, so will focus on keeping their neck of the woods as stable & prosperous as
possible while hell blazes elsewhere.
What is really going on is that West has over-reached and can barely handle its own
problems.
IMHO, what's really going on is that the West's problems are simply symptomatic of what
"decline and fall", if not "collapse" looks like from within a failing system. A long time
ago I read the diary of a Roman nobleman who in the most matter-of-fact style wrote of
exactly the same things Westerners complain about today. How this, that or the other thing no
longer works the way it did. For all of his 60+ years, every day was infinitesimally worse
than the day before, until finally he decides to pack up his Roman households and move to his
estates in Spain. It took 170(iirc) more years of continuous decline until Alaric finally
arrived at the Gates of Rome. If wholly due to internal causes, collapse is almost always a
slow motion train wreck.
'there would be a vacuum' and 'Russians would move in'. This is obvious nonsense and
only elderly paranoid Cold Warrior types believe it (peterAUS?).
Actually, it's just stupid. Cold Warrior or not, the view betrays a deep and abiding
ignorance of both history and a large part of what drove the West's hegemonic successes. That
both militate against anyone else ever even trying such a thing on a global scale can't be
seen if you look at historical developments and the rest of the world through 10′ of
1″ pipe.
The idea that Russia wants/needs the Baltics is even more laughable than that it
wants/needs the Ukraine or Poland. None of these tarbabies have anything to offer but
trouble. Noisome flies on an elephant, it is only if they make themselves more troublesome as
outsiders than they would be as vassals would Russia move.
Why do you think so? I think we are about to enter an occasional plateau and things will
be stable or even improve for a while. The Rome analogies are instructive, but they only take you so far. E.g. Rome was
collapsing for about two centuries, on and off. Rome was also infinitely more brutal than
today's West and the 'barbarians' were real barbarians, not aspiring migrants led by
well-paid NGO comprador class. Why do you think it is getting wobbly?
"The power and influence of the financial sector threatens a continuation of the regulatory capture that contributed to the financial
crisis. Financial firms, too often, have significant say in the appointment of high regulatory officials.
The tendency of some former government officials to obtain highly lucrative positions in the financial sector after leaving
government may well act as an inducement to those remaining in government to serve the interest of the financial sector rather
than those of the public."
The Western Banks are all over these markets, from commodities to equities. They are creating huge amounts of money debt, and providing
it to the financial industry as top down stimulus. What results is little aggregate or 'organic' growth and a series of paper asset
bubbles. They should be ashamed but they are too busy plundering to feel any twinge of conscience. They are like a herd of swine,
racing for the abyss.
I had to chuckle when the pampered princesses and giggling jackals were talking about the jobs report tomorrow,
and said that the ideal situation would be 'a strong jobs number with no wage growth,' a true 'goldilocks' scenario.
I have given up any expectation of reform from within. There will have to be some eye-opening incidents to shake the complacency
of the fortunate few.
Renegade ( ex-? ) Republican David Stockman NAILS IT TO THE WALL:
To be sure, some element of political calculus always lies behind legislation. For instance, the Dems didn't pass the Wagner
Act in 1935, the Voting Rights Act of 1965 or the Affordable Care Act of 2010 as exercises in pure civic virtue -- these measures
targeted huge constituencies with tens of millions of votes at stake.
Still, threadbare theories and untoward effects are just that; they can't be redeemed by the risible claim that this legislative
Rube Goldberg contraption being jammed through sight unseen ( in ACA redux fashion ) is for the benefit of the rank
and file Republican voters, and most especially not for the dispossessed independents and Dems of Flyover America who voted
for Trump out of protest against the failing status quo.
To the contrary. The GOP tax bill is of the lobbies, by the PACs and for the money. Period.
There is no higher purpose or even nugget of conservative economic principle to it. The battle cry of "pro-growth tax cuts"
is just a warmed over 35-year-old mantra from the Reagan era that does not remotely reflect the actual content of the bill
or disguise what it really is: namely, a cowardly infliction of more than $2 trillion of debt on future American taxpayers
in order to fund tax relief today for the GOP's K Street and Wall Street paymasters.
On a net basis, in fact, fully 97% of the $1.412 trillion revenue loss in the Senate Committee bill over the next decade
is attributable to the $1.369 trillion cost of cutting the corporate rate from 35% to 20% (and repeal of the related AMT).
All the rest of the massive bill is just a monumental zero-sum pot stirring operation.
Stockman, who knows federal budgeting better than most of us know the contents of our own homes, goes on to shred the tax bill
item by item, leaving a smoking, scorched-earth moonscape in his deadly rhetorical wake. And he's not done yet.
But Lordy, how he scourges the last hurrah of the know-nothing R party, just before it gets pounded senseless at the polls
next year. Bubble III is the last hope of the retrograde Republican Congressional rabble. But it's a 50/50 proposition at best
that our beloved bubble lasts through next November. :-(
thanks Jim, yes, this looks like it will knock the legs out of the "main st" economy, but over at versailles on the potomac
they'll be listening to/playing the fiddle and watching the country burn while guzzling 300 dollar scotch and and admiring their
campfire.
Right next to "Versailles on the Potomac" is the site of the former Bonus Army camp, Anacostia Flats. The burning of the Bonus
Army camp at Anacostia Flats could be seen, as a red glow, from the White House. Historians charitable to Herbert Hoover suggest
that Gen. Douglass MacArthur 'conned' Hoover into letting the Army 'disperse' the Bonus Army. The resulting spectacle can be said
to be one of the prime reasons why the American public rejected Hoover when he ran for re-election against Franklin Roosevelt.
I don't know if Hoover played the fiddle, but MacArthur was known to be able to play politicians like one.
The lesson here, if there is one, is that the present occupant of the White House had better be very circumspect about taking
advice from Generals.
"anacostia flats" bonus army raided by Wall Street General MacArthur which is reason in previous iteration of Wall Street power
grab by "American Liberty League", ("The Plot To Seize the White House"-Jules Archer) Marine General Smedley Butler felt forced
play whistle-blower, providing FDR leverage he needed to prosecute banksters.
Big River Bandido December 2, 2017 at 3:26 pm
The gist of the commenter's statement was true - Democrats are totally complicit in the end result of Republican economic and
foreign policy. Until now, Republicans could only deliver on their promises when Democrats helped them out. The Democrats' enabling
strategy eventually alienated their own core supporters. With this tax cut, the Republicans have shown, for the first time, the
ability to enact and sign their own legislation.
The Democrats basically accommodated the Republicans long enough to ensure their own irrelevance. They will not rise again
until their "mixed stances" and those who encourage them are purged.
"... Not only the media is supportive of the extortion scheme. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC: "I think that the Crown Prince [Mohammed bin Salman] is doing a great job at transforming the country." President Trump blessed MBS along similar lines. Not a word of condemnation came out of President Putin, either. Even Al Jazeera, though reporting the extortion in a matter-of-fact way, didn't make too much out of it. ..."
"... But the blanket of silence covering the Extortion Racket beats all. Usually, the global media mainstream system propagates and amplifies the news in a game of rebounding agencies that indirectly end up also to maximize headline sales, wrote the Italian journalist Claudio Resta. But in this case, the important and spectacular news made no headlines. In our Society of the Spectacle , failing to exploit the "spectacular" is a waste of the most valuable resource for the media. ..."
Hundreds of other princes and gentlemen were tortured, too, until they agreed to surrender
their ill-gotten assets, 70% of all they have. As I write, and as you read these lines, the
torture goes on, and so far MBS has already milked his victims of hundreds of billions $$ worth
of cash and assets.
"An Extortion racket", you'll exclaim. Perhaps MBS watched The Godfather in his
impressionable youth and was impressed by efficiency of their methods. However, he has solved,
or rather is in the process of solving, the problem of solvency.
Perhaps this is the method to be advised to Trump and Putin, as well as to other leaders? If
the neoliberal dogma forbids taxing, if the offshore are sacred, what remains for a diligent
leader but a plush five-star hotel and a band of experienced torturers?
But surely, the torturer will be condemned and ostracised by human rights' defenders! Not at
all. Not a single voice, neither from liberal left nor from authoritarian right objected to
this amazing deed of mass torture and extortion. While the co-owner of Twitter has been
subjected to daily beatings, the prime voice of liberal conscience, Tom Friedman of the New
York Times, eulogised MBS as the bearer of progress. In an article as panegyric as they come,
titled Saudi Arabia's
Arab Spring, at Last and subtitled "The crown prince has big plans for his society".
Tom Friedman does not use the word "extortion", saying that [MBS's] "government arrested
scores of Saudi princes and businessmen on charges of corruption and threw them into a
makeshift gilded jail -- the Riyadh Ritz-Carlton -- until they agreed to surrender their
ill-gotten gains." No condemnation at all! Can you imagine what he would say if Putin were to
arrest his oligarchs "until they agreed to surrender their ill-gotten gains"?
I believe one line in Friedman's eulogy, saying that the Saudis are content with the
extortion act: "the mood among Saudis I spoke with was: "Just turn them all upside down, shake
the money out of their pockets and don't stop shaking them until it's all out!" Moreover, I am
sure the Americans would applaud if their billionaires were to get the MBS treatment. The
Russians were mighty pleased when Putin locked up the oligarch Khodorkovsky, and complained
that he was the only one to be jailed. They would love to see the whole lot of oligarchs who
plundered Russia through manifestly fraudulent, staged auctions under American advisers in
Yeltsin's days, to be shaken "until it's all out".
Not only the media is supportive of the extortion scheme. US Treasury Secretary Steven
Mnuchin told CNBC: "I think that the Crown Prince [Mohammed bin Salman] is doing a great job at
transforming the country." President Trump blessed MBS along similar lines. Not a word of
condemnation came out of President Putin, either. Even Al Jazeera, though
reporting the extortion in a matter-of-fact way, didn't make too much out of it.
There is a veritable conspiracy around the MBS actions, a conspiracy embracing the media and
governments. He kidnapped the Lebanese Prime Minister, placed him under arrest, took away his
telephone and watch, forced him to read on TV a resignation letter composed by MBS people,
– and the response of the world has been subdued. He bombed Yemen, causing hundreds of
thousands to die of cholera and famine, and the world does not give a damn. Do you remember the
response when the Russians bombed Aleppo? None of this indignation accompanies MBS's war on
Yemen.
But the blanket of silence covering the Extortion Racket beats all. Usually, the global
media mainstream system propagates and amplifies the news in a game of rebounding agencies that
indirectly end up also to maximize headline sales, wrote the Italian journalist Claudio Resta.
But in this case, the important and spectacular news made no headlines. In our Society
of the Spectacle , failing to exploit the "spectacular" is a waste of the most valuable
resource for the media.
The potential for a great spectacle is all here. The arrest of dignitaries and princes of
blood, including the famous Al-Walid bin al-Talal, well-known investor and Bakr bin Laden,
brother of the most notorious Osama would normally feed the media for days. Add to it the
marvelous setting of the glorious hotel on the verge of the desert. Make it even more dramatic
by open rocket fire on the escaping helicopter of Prince Mansour bin Muqrin , killing him
and the other dignitaries who tried to flee.
Such a story, so brilliant and spectacular, with the colour and costume of a Middle Eastern
monarchy, could sell newspapers for a week at least. But it was followed by deafening
silence.
The same media that overwhelms us with the flood of details and opinions in a case of human
rights violations in Russia or China in this case shows off an Olympic indifference to the fate
of the princes and billionaires, unjustly and arbitrarily arrested and tortured in a country of
no constitution or Habeas Corpus. The United Nations joins in the conspiracy of silence.
This is probably the most unusual aspect of the story, reminiscent of The Dog that
Didn't Bark by Sir Arthur Conan Doyle. In that Sherlock Holmes story, a dog did not bark
during the night when a race horse was removed from a stable, and that indicated that the thief
was the dog's master.
In the case of MBS, the media dog keeps silent. It means that its mighty mega-owner, whom I
called The Masters of Discourse, allowed and authorised the racket. We witness a unique media
event, bordering with revelation. How could it be that a prince of a third-league state would
be allowed the licence to kidnap prime-ministers, kill princes by ground-to-air missiles, keep
and torture great businessmen and dignitaries with impunity and the media would keep mum?
Is it fear of the robber barons that the example of MBS extorting billions from his
super-rich will be picked up and acted upon in their own lands? Perhaps.
Stagnation that is gripping several of the world's largest economies should be viewed as a secular, long term phenomenon, not
something transient. It is connected with the neoliberalism entering a new phase of its development, when New Deal was already
devoured, 90% or so of population standard of living slides and thus there are no direct mechanisms to increase consumer demand.
Notable quotes:
"... Stagnation is gripping several of the world's largest economies and many view this as secular, not transient. ..."
"... Above all, ideology must conceal, denigrate, diminish, slander and distract from the ONE effective strategy that workers collectively have. This is the spectre that haunts all economics. ..."
"... For many of those who consume the bottom layers of it, what they are ingesting is a barbarous Pink Slime cultural sludge that makes them stupid, frivolous, dependent, impulsive and emotionally erratic – something like perpetual 15 year olds. ..."
"... In the center, we have the neoliberals, who are convinced that our world will spontaneously and beneficially organize itself if only we turn the macroeconomic tumblers and stumble on the right interest rate, or inflation rate, or some other version of the One Parameter to Rule Them All mindset. They are also too devoted to the religion of demand-goosing: the idea that everything will be all right as long as we generate enough "demand" – as though it makes no difference whether people are demanding high fructose cotton candy or the collected works of Shakespeare. ..."
"... Profits and income share at the top soared; wages and income share at the bottom fell, and employment was maintained by speculative bubbles and increasing debt until the last bubble burst, and the system collapsed. ..."
"... How is an increasing deficit and QE supposed to solve our problems in this situation other than by propping up a failed system that makes the rich richer and the poor poorer by increasing government debt? ..."
"... It seems quite clear to me that it is going to take a very long time for the system to adjust to this situation in the absence of a fall in the value of the dollar and the concentration of income. That kind of adjustment means reallocating resources in a very dramatic way so as to accommodate an economy in which resources are allocated to serve the demands of the wealthy few in the absence of the ability of those at the bottom to expand their debt relative to income. ..."
"... It was the fall in the concentration of income that led to mass markets (large numbers of people with purchasing power out of income) that made investment profitable after WW II in the absence of speculative bubbles, and it was the increase in the concentration of income that led to the bubble economy we have today that has led us into the Great Recession. ..."
"... I think neoliberalism naturally leads to secular stagnation. This is the way any economic system that is based on increasing of inequality should behave: after inequality reached certain critical threshold, the economy faces extended period of low growth reflecting persistently weak private demand. ..."
"... The focus on monetary policy and the failure to enact fiscal policy options is structural defect of neoliberalism ideology and can't be changed unless neoliberal ideology is abandoned. Which probably will not happen unless another huge crisis hit the USA. 2008 crisis, while discrediting neoliberalism, was clearly not enough for the abandonment of this ideology. Like in most cults adherents became more fanatical believers after the prophecy did not materialized. ..."
"... In a way behaviour of the USA elite in this respect is as irrational as behavior of the USSR elite. My impression is that they will stick to neoliberal ideology to the bitter end. But at the same time they are much more reckless. Recent attempt to solve economic problems by unleashing a new wars and relying of war time mobilization so far did not work. Including the last move is this game: Russia did not bite the offer for military confrontation that the USA clearly made by instilling coup d'état in Ukraine. ..."
This column argues that many economies need both demand-side stimulus and supply-side reform to close the output gap and restore
potential-output growth. A combined monetary-fiscal stimulus – i.e. helicopter money – is needed to close the output gap, and
this should be accompanied with extensive debt restructuring, policies to halt rising inequality, and additional public infrastructure
investment.
Selected Skeptical Comments
Sandwichman -> anne:
Workers, collectively, have a single, incontrovertible lever for effecting change -- withholding their labor power. Nothing
-- not even imprisonment or death -- can prevent workers from withholding their labor power! Kill me and see how much work you
can get out of me.
This is the elementary fact that the elites don't want workers to know. "It is futile!" "It is a fallacy!" "You will only hurt
yourselves!"
Once one comprehends the strategic importance of making the withholding of labor power taboo, everything else falls into place.
Economics actually makes sense as a persuasive discourse to dissuade from the withholding of labor power.
Above all, ideology must conceal, denigrate, diminish, slander and distract from the ONE effective strategy that workers
collectively have. This is the spectre that haunts all economics.
Dan Kervick:
Good stuff by Buiter et al, but here are some suggested additions to the litany of supply side woes:
1. Ineffective economic organization, both inside corporate firms and outside of them.
a. Many corporations are now quite dysfunctional as engines of long-term value creation – but not dysfunctional as vehicles
of short-term value extraction for their absurdly over-incentivized key stakeholders.
b. The developed world societies are facing an extreme failure of strategic economic leadership, at both the national and global
level, and at both the formal level of government and the informal level of visionary public intellectuals and industrial "captains".
There is no coherent consensus on which way lies the direction of progress. Since nobody is setting the agenda for what the future
looks like, risk trumps confidence everywhere and nobody knows what to invest in.
2. Dyspeptic dystopianism. The intellectual culture of our times is polluted by obsessive, nail-biting negativity and
demoralizing storylines preaching hopelessness: the robots are going to destroy all the jobs; the Big One is going to bury everything,
the real "neutral" interest rate is preposterously negative, etc. etc. etc. With so much doom and gloom in the air, there is no
reason to invest wealth, rather than consume it. Robert Schiller touched on this at a recent talk at LSE.
3. The popular culture of 2015 America is – as in so many other areas - a tale of two cultural cities.For many
of those who consume the bottom layers of it, what they are ingesting is a barbarous Pink Slime cultural sludge that makes them
stupid, frivolous, dependent, impulsive and emotionally erratic – something like perpetual 15 year olds. People like this
can be duped by the most shallow demagoguery and consumerist manipulation, and can't organize themselves to pursue their enlightened
self-interest. Enlightened artists and cultural custodians need to step up, organize and find a way to seize the American mind
back from the clutches of consumer capitalist garbage-mongers and philistine society-wreckers.
4. Laissez faire backwardness. We are struggling under left-right-center conspiracy of Pollyanna freedom fools, who
despite their constant kvetching at one another all share in common the view that progress is self-organizing.
On the left we have the Chomsky and Graeber-style "libertarian socialists" who are convinced we could have a functioning and
prosperous society in which seemingly every action is voluntary and spontaneous, nobody is ever compelled to do anything that
their delicate little hearts don't throb to do, and who seemingly have no idea of what it takes even to run a carrot farm.
On the right, we have the clueless paranoid libertarians who think the whole world should revolve around their adolescent desire
not to be "tread on", and seem to have no idea of what it takes – and what it took historically - to build a livable civilization.
In the center, we have the neoliberals, who are convinced that our world will spontaneously and beneficially organize itself
if only we turn the macroeconomic tumblers and stumble on the right interest rate, or inflation rate, or some other version of
the One Parameter to Rule Them All mindset. They are also too devoted to the religion of demand-goosing: the idea that everything
will be all right as long as we generate enough "demand" – as though it makes no difference whether people are demanding high
fructose cotton candy or the collected works of Shakespeare.
5. I'm an optimist! This is all going to change. We have nearly reached Peak Idiocracy. We're on the verge of a new age of
social organization and planning and a return to mixed economy common sense and public-spirited mobilization and adulthood. This
will happen because ultimately all of those teenagers will stop denying reality, and stop struggling to escape the realization
that a more organized and thoughtfully planned way of life is the only thing that will work in our small, resource strapped, crowded
21st century planet.
George H. Blackford:
Since the 80s, US companies have been buying abroad to sell at home as foreign countries used our trade deficits to depress
their exchange rates. Profits and income share at the top soared; wages and income share at the bottom fell, and employment
was maintained by speculative bubbles and increasing debt until the last bubble burst, and the system collapsed.
There seem to be no more bubbles in the offing. The dollar is overvalued. Debt relative to income is unprecedented, and the
concentration of income has created stagnation for lack of investment opportunities.
How is an increasing deficit and QE supposed to solve our problems in this situation other than by propping up a failed
system that makes the rich richer and the poor poorer by increasing government debt? Does anyone really believe this sort
of thing can go on forever in the absence of a fall in the value of the dollar and in the concentration of income? Who's going
to be left holding the bag when this system collapses again?
It seems quite clear to me that it is going to take a very long time for the system to adjust to this situation in the
absence of a fall in the value of the dollar and the concentration of income. That kind of adjustment means reallocating resources
in a very dramatic way so as to accommodate an economy in which resources are allocated to serve the demands of the wealthy few
in the absence of the ability of those at the bottom to expand their debt relative to income.
We didn't smoothly transition from an agricultural economy to one based on manufacturing. That transition was plagued with
a great deal of civil unrest, speculative bubbles, booms and busts that eventually led to a collapse of the system and the Great
Depression.
And we didn't smoothly transition out of the Great Depression. That was ended by WW II and dramatic changes in our economic
system, the most dramatic changes being the role and size of government and the fall in the concentration of income for thirty-five
years after 1940.
It was the fall in the concentration of income that led to mass markets (large numbers of people with purchasing power
out of income) that made investment profitable after WW II in the absence of speculative bubbles, and it was the increase in the
concentration of income that led to the bubble economy we have today that has led us into the Great Recession.
What this means to me is that we are not going to get out of the mess we are in today in the absence of some kind of catastrophe
comparable to WW II if we, and the rest of the world, do not come to grips with the fundamental problem we face in this modern
age, namely, the trade deficit and the concentration of income.
I think neoliberalism naturally leads to secular stagnation. This is the way any economic system that is based on increasing
of inequality should behave: after inequality reached certain critical threshold, the economy faces extended period of low growth
reflecting persistently weak private demand.
An economic cycle enters recession when total spending falls below expected by producers and they realize that production level
is too high relative to demand. What we have under neoliberalism is kind of Marx constant crisis of overproduction.
The focus on monetary policy and the failure to enact fiscal policy options is structural defect of neoliberalism ideology
and can't be changed unless neoliberal ideology is abandoned. Which probably will not happen unless another huge crisis hit the
USA. 2008 crisis, while discrediting neoliberalism, was clearly not enough for the abandonment of this ideology. Like in most
cults adherents became more fanatical believers after the prophecy did not materialized.
The USA elite tried partially alleviate this problem by resorting to military Keynesianism as a supplementary strategy. But
while military budget was raised to unprecedented levels, it can't reverse the tendency. Persistent high output gap is now a feature
of the US economy, not a transitory state.
"Top everything" does not help iether (top cheap oil is especially nasty factor). Recent pretty clever chess gambit to artificially
drop oil price playing Russian card, and sacrificing US shall industry like a pawn (remember that Saudi Arabia is the USA client
state) was a very interesting move, but still expectation are now so low that cheap gas stimulus did not work as expected in the
USA. It would be interesting to see how quickly oil will return to early 2014 price level because of that. That will be the sign
that gambit is abandoned.
In a way behaviour of the USA elite in this respect is as irrational as behavior of the USSR elite. My impression is that
they will stick to neoliberal ideology to the bitter end. But at the same time they are much more reckless. Recent attempt to
solve economic problems by unleashing a new wars and relying of war time mobilization so far did not work. Including the last
move is this game: Russia did not bite the offer for military confrontation that the USA clearly made by instilling coup d'état
in Ukraine.
Now it look like there is a second attempt to play "madman" card after Nixon's administration Vietnam attempt to obtain concession
from the USSR by threatening to unleash the nuclear war.
"... During the two decades following the neoliberal economists' take-over of Western governments in the 1980s, many felt that the almost mystical terms of economics - such as derivatives, hedging, leverage, contangos, etc - were beyond the understanding of most ordinary people. ..."
"... They pursued them as a matter of faith in the market and its processes, despite the apparent warning signs of their imminent failure. ..."
"... as within many custom or belief systems, what economics enshrines is a social order. One where a dominant minority are able to take a small quantity of wealth from each member of the majority in order to maintain their higher status. ..."
"... idea of economics as an exploitative mechanism is echoed in the cover picture of the book, Bosch's The Conjurer ..."
"... Within its exposition of economics as a quasi-religious theory, Brian Davey's book helps us to understand why economic theory is driving us toward a global system failure - and why politics and economics are incapable of responding to the pressing ecological crisis which the pursuit of economic growth has spawned. ..."
Brian Davey's new book, Credo: Economic Beliefs in a World in Crisis, is an analysis of economic theory as if it were a system
of religious belief.
It's a timely book. The simplistic, perhaps 'supernatural' assumptions which underpin key parts of economic theory demand far
more attention. It's a debate we've failed to have as a society.
... ... ...
During the two decades following the neoliberal economists' take-over of Western governments in the 1980s, many felt that
the almost mystical terms of economics - such as derivatives, hedging, leverage, contangos, etc - were beyond the understanding of
most ordinary people.
And without understanding those terms, irrespective of our gut feeling that there was something wrong, how could we challenge
the political lobby those theories had put into power? In the end it took the
financial crash of 2007/8 to demonstrate
that those in charge of this system didn't understand the complexity and risk of those practices either.
They pursued them as a matter of faith in the market and its processes, despite the
apparent
warning signs of their imminent failure. Those outside 'orthodox' economics could already see where the economy
was heading in the longer-term.
Question is, did economists learn anything from that failure? Or,
through austerity, have they once again committed us to their dogmatic belief system, unchanged by that experience?
... ... ...
However, through simple hubris or optimism bias, the political
class has been convinced that 'fracking' is a solution to our economic woes
- even though there is a paucity of verifiable evidence to demonstrate those claims, and
it has already lost billions of investors money.
Economics is a reflection of power
Ultimately though, as within many custom or belief systems, what economics enshrines is a social order. One where a dominant
minority are able to take a small quantity of wealth from each member of the majority in order to maintain their higher status.
This idea of economics as an exploitative mechanism
is echoed in the cover picture of the book, Bosch's
The Conjurer - where a magician distracts
the public with a sleight of hand trick so that they can be more easily robbed by his associate.
Again, in a world where we're hitting the limits to human material growth, political models of well-being based upon wealth and
consumption are damaging to human society in the long-term. The evidence that we're heading for a longer-term failure is there, as
was the case with the warning signs before the 2007 crash. The problem is that those in positions of power
do not wish to see it.
... ... ...
Within its exposition of economics as a quasi-religious theory, Brian Davey's book helps us to understand why economic theory
is driving us toward a global system failure - and why politics and economics are incapable of responding to the pressing ecological
crisis which the pursuit of economic growth has spawned.
Contrary to the economic hubris of many world leaders, set alongside the reality of ecological limits humanity is not 'too big
to fail'.
"... An interview by Gordon T. Long of the Financial Repression Authority. Originally published at his website ..."
"... One of the most important distinctions that investors have to understand is the difference between secular and cyclical trends Let us begin with definitions from the Encarta® World English Dictionary: ..."
"... Secular – occurring only once in the course of an age or century; taking place over an extremely or indefinitely long period of time ..."
"... Cycle – a sequence of events that is repeated again and again, especially a causal sequence; a period of time between repetitions of an event or phenomenon that occurs regularly ..."
"... Secular stagnation is when the predators of finance have eaten too many sheeple. ..."
"... Real estate rents in this latest asset bubble, whether commercial or residential, appear to have been going up in many markets even if the increases are slowing. That rent inflation will likely turn into rent deflation, but that doesn't appear to have happened yet consistently. ..."
"... Barter has always existed and always will. Debt money expands and contracts the middle class, acting as a feedback signal, which never works over the long term, because the so encapsulated system can only implode, when natural resource liquidation cannot be accelerated. The whole point is to eliminate the initial requirement for capital, work. Debt fails because both sides of the same coin assume that labor can be replaced. The machines driven by dc technology are not replacing labor; neither the elites nor the middle class can fix the machines, which is why they keep accelerating debt, to replace one failed technology only to be followed by the next, netting extortion by whoever currently controls the debt machine, which the majority is always fighting over, expending more energy to avoid work, like the objective is to avoid sweating, unless you are dumb enough to run on asphalt with Nike gear. ..."
"... . . . The whole argument for privatization, for instance, is the opposite of what was taught in American business schools in the 19th century. The first professor of economics at the Wharton School of Business, which was the first business school, was Simon Patten. He said that public infrastructure is a fourth factor of production. But its role isn't to make a profit . It's to lower the cost of public services and basic inputs to lower the cost of living and lower the cost of doing business to make the economy more competitive. But privatization adds interest payments, dividends, managerial payments, stock buybacks, and merges and acquisitions . Obviously these financialized charges are factored into the price system and raise the cost of living and doing business . ..."
GORDON LONG: Thank you for joining us. I'm Gordon Long with the Financial Repression Authority. It's my pleasure to have with
me today Dr. Michael Hudson Professor Hudson's very well known in terms of the FIRE economy to-I think, to a lot of our listeners,
or at least he's recognized by many as fostering that concept. A well known author, he has published many, many books. Welcome, Professor
Hudson.
MICHAEL HUDSON: Yes.
LONG: Let's just jump into the subject. I mentioned the FIRE economy cause I know that I have always heard it coming from yourself-or,
indirectly, not directly, from yourself. Could you explain to our listeners what's meant by that terminology?
HUDSON: Well it's more than just people getting fired. FIRE is an acronym for Finance, Insurance and Real Estate. Basically that
sector is about assets, not production and consumption. And most people think of the economy as being producers making goods and
services and paying labor to produce them – and then, labour is going to buy these goods and services. But this production and consumption
economy is surrounded by the asset economy: the web of Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate of who owns assets, and who owes the debts,
and to whom.
LONG: How would you differentiate it (or would you) with what's often referred to as financialization, or the financialization
of our economy? Are they one and the same?
HUDSON: Pretty much. The Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate sector is dominated by finance. 70 to 80% of bank loans in North
America and Europe are mortgage loans against real estate. So instead of a landowner class owning property clean and clear, as they
did in the 19 th century, now you have a democratization of real estate. 2/3 or more of the population owns their own
home. But the only way to buy a home, or commercial real estate, is on credit. So the loan-to-value ratio goes up steadily. Banks
lend more and more money to the real estate sector. A home or piece of real estate, or a stock or bond, is worth whatever banks are
willing to lend against it
As banks loosen their credit terms, as they lower their interest rates, take lower down payments, and lower amortization rates
– by making interest-only loans – they are going to lend more and more against property. So real estate is bid up on credit. All
this rise in price is debt leverage. So a financialized economy is a debt-leveraged economy, whether it's real estate or insurance,
or buying an education, or just living. And debt leveraging means that a larger proportion of assets are represented by debt. So
debt equity ratios rise. But financialization also means that more and more of people's income and corporate and government tax revenue
is paid to creditors. There's a flow of revenue from the production-and-consumption economy to the financial sector.
LONG: I don't know if you know Richard Duncan. He was with the IMF, etc, and lives in Thailand. He argues right now that capitalism
is no longer functioning, and really what he refers to what we have now is "creditism." Because in capitalism we have savings that
are reinvested into productive assets that create productivity, which leads to a higher level of living. We're not doing that. We
have no savings and investments. Credit is high in the financial sector, but it's not being applied to productive assets. Is he valid
in that thinking?
HUDSON: Not as in your statement. It's confused.
LONG: Okay.
HUDSON: There's an enormous amount of savings. Gross savings. The savings we have that are mounting up are just about as large
as they've ever been – about, 18-19% of the US economy. They're counterpart is debt. Most savings are lent out to borrowers se debt.
Basically, you have savers at the top of the pyramid, the 1% lending out their savings to the 99%. The overall net savings may be
zero, and that's what your stupid person from the IMF meant. But gross savings are much higher. Now, the person, Mr. Duncan, obviously-I
don't know what to say when I hear this nonsense. Every economy is a credit economy.
Let's start in Ancient Mesopotamia. The group that I organized out of Harvard has done a 20-study of the origins of economic structuring
in the Bronze Age, even the Neolithic, and the Bronze Age economy – 3200 BC going back to about 1200 BC. Suppose you're a Babylonian
in the time of Hammurabi, about 1750 BC, and you're a cultivator. How do you buy things during the year? Well, if you go to the bar,
to an ale woman, what she'd do is write down the debt that you owe. It was to be paid on the threshing floor. The debts were basically
paid basically once a year when the income was there, on the threshing floor when the harvest was in. If the palace or the temples
would advance animals or inputs or other public services, this would be as a debt. It was all paid in grain, which was monetized
for paying debts to the palace, temples and other creditors.
The IMF has this Austrian theory that pretends that money began as barter and that capitalism basically operates on barter. This
always is a disinformation campaign. Nobody believed this in times past, and it is a very modern theory that basically is used to
say, "Oh, debt is bad." What they really mean is that public debt is bad. The government shouldn't create money, the government shouldn't
run budget deficits but should leave the economy to rely on the banks. So the banks should run and indebt the economy.
You're dealing with a public relations mythology that's used as a means of deception for most people. You can usually ignore just
about everything the IMF says. If you understand money you're not going to be hired by the IMF. The precondition for being hired
by the IMF is not to understand finance. If you do understand finance, you're fired and blacklisted. That's why they impose
austerity programs that they call "stabilization programs" that actually are destabilization programs almost wherever they're imposed.
LONG: Is this a lack of understanding and adherence to the wrong philosophy, or how did we get into this trap?
HUDSON: We have an actively erroneous view, not just a lack of understanding. This is not by accident. When you have an error
repeated year after year after year, decade after decade after decade, it's not really insanity doing the same thing thinking it'll
be different. It's sanity. It's doing the same thing thinking the result will be the same again and again and again. The result
will indeed be austerity programs, making budget deficits even worse, driving governments further into debt, further into reliance
on the IMF. So then the IMF turns them to the knuckle breakers of the World Bank and says, "Oh, now you have to pay your debts by
privatization". It's the success. The successful error of monetarism is to force countries to have such self-defeating policies that
they end up having to privatize their natural resources, their public domain, their public enterprises, their communications and
transportation, like you're seeing in Greece's selloffs. So when you find an error that is repeated, it's deliberate. It's not insane.
It's part of the program, not a bug.
LONG: Where does this lead us? What's the roadmap ahead of us here?
HUDSON: A thousand years ago, if you were a marauding gang and you wanted to take over a country's land and its natural resources
and public sector, you'd have to invade it with military troops. Now you use finance to take over countries. So it leads us into
a realm where everything that the classical economists saw and argued for – public investment, bringing costs in line with the actual
cost of production – that's all rejected in favor of a rentier class evolving into an oligarchy. Basically, financiers – the
1% – are going to pry away the public domain from the government. Pry away and privatize the public enterprises, land, natural resources,
so that bondholders and privatizers get all of the revenue for themselves. It's all sucked up to the top of the pyramid, impoverishing
the 99%.
LONG: Well I think most people, without understanding economics, would instinctively tell you they think that's what's happening
right now, in some way.
HUDSON: Right. As long as you can avoid studying economics you know what's happened. Once you take an economics course you step
into brainwashing. It's an Orwellian world.
LONG: I think you said it perfectly well there. Exactly. It gets you locked into the wrong way of thinking as opposed to just
basic common sense. Your book is Killing the Host . What was the essence of its message? Was it describing exactly what we're
talking about here?
HUDSON: Finance has taken over the industrial economy, so that instead of finance becoming what it was expected to be in the 19
th century, instead of the banks evolving from usurious organizations that leant to governments, mainly to wage war, finance
was going to be industrialized. They were going to mobilize savings and recycle it to finance the means of production, starting with
heavy industry. This was actually happening in Germany in the late 19 th century. You had the big banks working with government
and industry in a triangular process. But that's not what's happening now. After WW1 and especially after WW2, finance reverted to
its pre-industrial form. Instead of allying themselves with industry, as banks were expected to do, banks allied themselves with
real estate and monopolies, realizing that they can make more money off real estate.
The bank spokesman David Ricardo argued against the landed interest in 1817, against land rent. Now the banks are all in favor
of supporting land rent, knowing that today, when people buy and sell property, they need credit and pay interest for it. The banks
are going to get all the rent. So you have the banks merge with real estate against industry, against the economy as a whole. The
result is that they're part of the overhead process, not part of the production process.
LONG: There's a sense that there's a crisis lying ahead in the next year, two years, or three years. The mainstream economy's
so disconnected from Wall Street economy. What's your view on that?
HUDSON: It's not disconnected at all. The Wall Street economy has taken over the economy and is draining it. Under what economics
students are taught as Say's Law, the economy's workers are supposed to use their income to buy what they produce. That's why Henry
Ford paid them $5 a day, so that they could afford to buy the automobiles they were producing.
LONG: Exactly.
HUDSON: But Wall Street is interjecting itself into the economy, so that instead of the circular flow between producers and consumers,
you have more and more of the flow diverted to pay interest, insurance and rent. In other words, to pay the FIRE sector. It all ends
up with the financial sector, most of which is owned by the 1%. So, their way of formulating it is to distract attention from today's
debt quandary by saying it's just a cycle, or it's "secular stagnation." That removes the element of agency – active politicking
by the financial interests and Wall Street lobbyists to obtain all the growth of income and wealth for themselves. That's what happened
in America and Canada since the late 1970s.
LONG: What does an investor do today, or somebody who's looking for retirement, trying to save for the future, and they see some
of these things occurring. What should they be thinking about? Or how should they be protecting themselves?
HUDSON: What all the billionaires and the heavy investors do is simply try to preserve their wealth. They're not trying to make
money, they're not trying to speculate. If you're an investor, you're not going to outsmart Wall Street billionaires, because the
markets are basically fixed. It's the George Soros principle. If you have so much money, billions of dollars, you can break the Bank
of England. You don't follow the market, you don't anticipate it, you actually make the market and push it up, like the Plunge Protection
Team is doing with the stock market these days. You have to be able to control the prices. Insiders make money, but small investors
are not going to make money.
Since you're in Canada, I remember the beginning of the 1960s. I used to look at the Treasury Bulletin and Federal Reserve
Bulletin figures on foreign investment in the US stock market. We all used to laugh at Canada especially. The Canadians don't
buy stocks until they're up to the very top, and then they lose all the money by holding these stocks on the downturn. Finally, when
the market's all the way at the bottom, Canadians decide to begin selling because they finally can see a trend. So they miss the
upswing until they decide to buy at the top once again. It's hilarious to look at how Canada has performed in the US bond market,
and they did the same in the silver market. I remember when silver was going up to $50. The Canadians said, "Yes, we can see the
trend now!" and they began to buy it. They lost their shirts. So, basically, if you're a Canadian investor, move.
LONG: So the Canadian investors are a better contrarian indicator than the front page cover, you're saying.
HUDSON: I'd think so. Once they get in, you know the bubble's over.
LONG: Absolutely on that one. What are you currently writing? What is your current focus now?
HUDSON: Well, I just finished a book. You mentioned Killing the Host . My next book will be out in about three months:
J is for Junk Economics . It began as a dictionary of terms, so I can provide people with a vocabulary. As we got in the argument
at the beginning of your program today, our argument is about the vocabulary we're using and the words you're using. The vocabulary
taught to students today in economics – and used by the mass media and by government spokesmen – is basically a set of euphemisms.
If you look at the television reports on the market, they say that any loss in the stock market isn't a loss, it's "profit taking".
And when they talk about money. the stock market rises – "Oh that's good news." But it's awful news for the short sellers it wipes
out. Almost all the words we get are kind of euphemisms to conceal the actual dynamics that are happening. For instance, "secular
stagnation" means it's all a cycle. Even the idea of "business cycles": Nobody in the 19 th century used the word "business
cycle". They spoke about "crashes". They knew that things go up slowly and then they plunge very quickly. It was a crash. It's not
the sine curve that you have in Josef Schumpeter's book on Business Cycles . It's a ratchet effect: slow up, quick down. A
cycle is something that is automatic, and if it's a cycle and you have leading and lagging indicators as the National Bureau of Economic
Research has. Then you'd think "Oh, okay, everything that goes up will come down, and everything that goes down will come up, just
wait your turn." And that means governments should be passive.
Well, that is the opposite of everything that's said in classical economics and the Progressive Era, when they realized that economies
don't recover by themselves. You need a-the government to step in, you need something "exogenous," as economist say. You need something
from outside the system to revive it. The covert idea of this business cycle analysis is to leave out the role of government. If
you look at neoliberal and Austrian theory, there's no role for government spending, and no role of public investment. The whole
argument for privatization, for instance, is the opposite of what was taught in American business schools in the 19 th
century. The first professor of economics at the Wharton School of Business, which was the first business school, was Simon Patten.
He said that public infrastructure is a fourth factor of production. But its role isn't to make a profit. It's to lower the cost
of public services and basic inputs to lower the cost of living and lower the cost of doing business to make the economy more competitive.
But privatization adds interest payments, dividends, managerial payments, stock buybacks, and merges and acquisitions. Obviously
these financialized charges are factored into the price system and raise the cost of living and doing business.
LONG: Well, Michael, we're-I thank you for the time, and we're up against our hard line. I know we didn't have as much time as
we always like, so we have to break. Any overall comments you'd like to leave with our listeners who might be interested this school
of economics?
HUDSON: Regarding the downturn we're in, we're going into a debt deflation. The key of understanding the economy is to look at
debt. The economy has to spend more and more money on debt service. The reason the economy is not recovering isn't simply because
this is a normal cycle. And It's not because labour is paid too much. It's because people are diverting more and more of their income
to paying their debts, so they can't afford to buy goods. Markets are shrinking – and if markets are shrinking, then real estate
rents are shrinking, profits are shrinking. Instead of using their earnings to reinvest and hire more labour to increase production,
companies are using their earnings for stock buybacks and dividend payouts to raise the share price so that the managers can take
their revenue in the form of bonuses and stocks and live in the short run. They're leaving their companies as bankrupt shells, which
is pretty much what hedge funds do when they take over companies.
So the financialization of companies is the reverse of everything Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill, and everyone you think of as a
classical economist was saying. Banks wrap themselves in a cloak of classical economics by dropping history of economic thought from
the curriculum, which is pretty much what's happened. And Canada-I know since you're from Canada, my experience there was that the
banks have a huge lobbying power over government. In 1979, I wrote for the IRPP Institute there on Canada In the New Monetary
Order . At that time the provinces of Canada were borrowing money from Switzerland and Germany because they could borrow it at
much lower interest rates. I said that this was going to be a disaster, and one that was completely unnecessary. If Canadian provinces
borrow in Francs or any other foreign currency, this money goes into the central bank, which then creates Canadian dollars to spend.
Why not have the central bank simply create these dollars without having Swiss francs, without having German marks? It's unnecessary
to have an intermediary. But the more thuggish banks, like the Bank of Nova Scotia, said, "Oh, that way's the road to serfdom." It's
not. Following the banks and the Austrian School of the banks' philosophy, that's the road to serfdom. That's the road
to debt serfdom. It should not be taken now. It lets universities and the government be run by neoliberals. They're a travesty of
what real economics is all about.
LONG: Michael, thank you very much. I learned a lot, appreciate it; certainly appreciate how important it is for us to use the
right words on the right subject when we're talking about economics. Absolutely agree with you. Talk to you again?
Interesting, but after insulting Duncan, Hudson says the banks stopped partnering with industry and went into real estate,
which sounded like what Duncan said.
I mention this because for a non- expert like myself it is sometimes difficult to tell when an expert is disagreeing with someone
for good reasons or just going off half- cocked. I followed what Hudson said about the evils of the IMF, but didn't see where
Duncan had defended any of that, unless it was implicit in saying that capitalism used to function better.
"As we got in the argument at the beginning of your program today, our argument is about the vocabulary we're using and the
words you're using. The vocabulary taught to students today in economics – and used by the mass media and by government spokesmen
– is basically a set of euphemisms ."Almost all the words we get are kind of euphemisms to conceal the actual dynamics that are
happening."
May consider it's about recognizing and deciphering the "doublespeak", "newspeak", "fedspeak", "greenspeak" etc, whether willing
or unwitting using words for understanding and clarifying as opposed to misleading and confusing dialectic as opposed to sophistry.
What I objected to was the characterization of today's situation as "financialization." I explained that financialization is
the FIRST stage - when finance WORKS. We are now in the BREAKDOWN of financialization - toward the "barter" stage.
Treating "finance" as an end stage rather than as a beginning stage overlooks the dynamics of breakdown. It is debt deflation.
First profits fall, and as that occurs, rents on commercial property decline. This is already widespread here in New York, from
Manhattan (8th St. near NYU is half empty) to Queens (Austin St. in Forest Hills.).
I wrote an article you might be interested in reading. It outlines a tax policy which would help prevent what you are discussing
in your article. The abuse of credit to receive rents and long term capital gains.
Thank you for another eye-opening exposition. My political economy education was negative (counting a year of Monetarism and
Austrian Economics around 1980), so I appreciate your interviews as correctives.
From your interview answer to the question about what we, the 99+% should do,I gathered only that we should not try to beat
the market. Anything more than that?
From my understanding, post Plaza banking lost most of its traditional market to the shadow sector, as a result, expanded off
into C/RE and increasingly to Financialization of everything sundry.
Disheveled Marsupial interesting to note Mr. Hudson's statement about barter, risk factors – ?????
One of the most important distinctions that investors have to understand is the difference between secular and cyclical
trends Let us begin with definitions from the Encarta® World English Dictionary:
Secular – occurring only once in the course of an age or century; taking place over an extremely or indefinitely long period
of time
Cycle – a sequence of events that is repeated again and again, especially a causal sequence; a period of time between repetitions
of an event or phenomenon that occurs regularly
Secular stagnation is a condition of negligible or no economic growth in a market-based economy . When
per capita income stays at relatively high levels, the percentage of savings is likely to start exceeding the percentage of longer-term
investments in, for example, infrastructure and education, that are necessary to sustain future economic growth. The absence of
such investments (and consequently of the economic growth) leads to declining levels of per capita income (and consequently of
per capita savings). With the reduced percentage savings rate converging with the reduced investment rate, economic growth comes
to a standstill – ie, it stagnates. In a free economy, consumers anticipating secular stagnation, might transfer their savings
to more attractive-looking foreign countries. This would lead to a devaluation of their domestic currency, which would potentially
boost their exports, assuming that the country did have goods or services that could be exported.
Persistent low growth, especially in Europe, has been attributed by some to secular stagnation initiated by stronger European
economies, such as Germany, in the past few years.
Words. What they mean depends on who's talking.
Secular stagnation is when the predators of finance have eaten too many sheeple.
Markets are shrinking – and if markets are shrinking, then real estate rents are shrinking, profits are shrinking.
Real estate rents in this latest asset bubble, whether commercial or residential, appear to have been going up in many
markets even if the increases are slowing. That rent inflation will likely turn into rent deflation, but that doesn't appear to
have happened yet consistently.
Perhaps he meant to say that markets are going to shrink as the debt deflation becomes more evident?
Yes, I think we are into turnip country now. Figure 1 in
this
prior article looks clear enough – even if you don't like the analysis that went with it. Wealth inequality still climbs but
income inequality has plateaued since Clinton I. Whatever the reasons for that, the 1% should be concerned – where is the ROI?
Barter has always existed and always will. Debt money expands and contracts the middle class, acting as a feedback signal,
which never works over the long term, because the so encapsulated system can only implode, when natural resource liquidation cannot
be accelerated. The whole point is to eliminate the initial requirement for capital, work. Debt fails because both sides of the
same coin assume that labor can be replaced. The machines driven by dc technology are not replacing labor; neither the elites
nor the middle class can fix the machines, which is why they keep accelerating debt, to replace one failed technology only to
be followed by the next, netting extortion by whoever currently controls the debt machine, which the majority is always fighting
over, expending more energy to avoid work, like the objective is to avoid sweating, unless you are dumb enough to run on asphalt
with Nike gear.
Labor has no problem with multiwhatever presidents, geneticists, psychologists, or economists, trying to hunt down and replace
labor, in or out of turn, but none are going to be any more successful than the others. Trump is being employed to bypass the
middle class and cut a deal. There is no deal. Labor is always going to pay males to work and their wives to raise children. Obviously,
the majority will vote for a competing economy, and it is welcome to do so, but if debt works so well, why is the majority voting
to kidnap our kids with public healthcare and education policies.
I'm not sure I heard an answer to the question of what people, who might be trying to save for the future or plan for retirement,
can do? Is the point that there isn't anything? Because I'm definitely between rocks and hard places
Yeah, he basically said there is no good savings plan. Big-money interests have rigged the rules and are now manipulating the
market (this used to be the definition of what was NOT allowed). Thus, they use computer algorithms to squeeze small amounts out
of the market millions of times. This means that the "investments" are nothing of the sort. You don't "invest" in something for
milliseconds. He said that the 1% are mostly just trying to hold on to what they have. Very few trust the rigged markets.
Low rent & cheap energy are key to the arts & innovations. My model has to work for airports, starts at the fuel farm as the
CIA & MI6 Front Page Avjet did. Well before that was Air America. I wonder if now American Airlines itself is a Front.
All of America is a Front far as I can about tell. Hadn't heard that Manhattan rents were coming down. Come in from out of
town, how you going to know? Not supposed to I guess.
I got that textbook and I liked that guy John Commons. He says capitalism is great, but it always leads to Socialism because
of unbridled greed.
The frenzy to find another stable cash currency showing in Bit Coin and the discussion of Future Tax Credits while the Euro
is controlled by the rent takers demands change on both sides of the Atlantic.
We got shot dead protesting the war, and civil rights backlash is the gift that keeps giving to the Southerners looking up
every day in every courthouse town, County seat is all about spreading fear and desperation.
How to change it all without violence is going to be really tricky.
. . . So, basically, if you're a Canadian investor, move.
LONG: So the Canadian investors are a better contrarian indicator than the front page cover, you're saying.
HUDSON: I'd think so. Once they get in, you know the bubble's over.
When one reads the financial press in Canada, every dollar extracted by the lords of finance is a glorious taking by brilliant
people at the top of the financial food chain from the stupid little people at the bottom, but when it counts, there was silence,
in cooperation with Canada's one percent.
The story starts about five years ago, with smart meters. Everyone knows what they are, a method by which electrical power
use can be priced depending on the time of day, and day of the week.
To make this tasty, Ontario's local utilities at first kept the price the same for all the time, and then after all the meters
were installed, came the changes, phased in over time. Prices were increased substantially, but there was an out. If you changed
your living arrangements to live like a nocturnal rodent and washed your clothes in the middle of the night, had supper later
in the evening or waited for weekend power rates you could still get low power rates, from the three tier price structure.
The local utilities bought the power from the government of Ontario power generation utility, renamed to Hydro One, and this
is where Michael Hudson's talk becomes relevant.
The successful error of monetarism is to force countries to have such self-defeating policies that they end up having to
privatize their natural resources, their public domain, their public enterprises, their communications and transportation, like
you're seeing in Greece's selloffs. So when you find an error that is repeated, it's deliberate. It's not insane. It's
part of the program, not a bug .
LONG: Where does this lead us? What's the roadmap ahead of us here?
HUDSON: A thousand years ago, if you were a marauding gang and you wanted to take over a country's land and its natural
resources and public sector, you'd have to invade it with military troops. Now you use finance to take over countries. So it leads
us into a realm where everything that the classical economists saw and argued for – public investment, bringing costs
in line with the actual cost of production – that's all rejected in favor of a rentier class evolving into an oligarchy. Basically,
financiers – the 1% – are going to pry away the public domain from the government. Pry away and privatize the public enterprises,
land, natural resources, so that bondholders and privatizers get all of the revenue for themselves. It's all sucked up to the
top of the pyramid, impoverishing the 99% .
Eighteen months ago, there was an election in Ontario, and the press was on radio silence during the whole time leading up
to the election about the plans to "privatize" Hydro One. I cannot recall one instance of any mention that the new Premier, Kathleen
Wynne was planning on selling Hydro One to "investors".
Where did this come from? Did the little people rise up and say to the politicians "you should privatize Hydro One" for whatever
reason? No. This push came from the 1% and Hydro One was sold so fast it made my head spin, and is now trading on the Toronto
Stock exchange.
At first I though the premier was an economic ignoramus, because Hydro One was generating income for the province and there
was no other power supplier, so one couldn't even fire them if they raised their prices too high.
One of the arguments put forward by the 1% to privatize Hydro One was a classic divide and conquer strategy. They argued that
too many people at Hydro One were making too much money, and by privatizing, the employees wages would be beat down, and the resultant
savings would be passed on to customers.
Back to Michael Hudson
. . . The whole argument for privatization, for instance, is the opposite of what was taught in American business schools
in the 19th century. The first professor of economics at the Wharton School of Business, which was the first business school,
was Simon Patten. He said that public infrastructure is a fourth factor of production. But its role isn't to make a profit
. It's to lower the cost of public services and basic inputs to lower the cost of living and lower the cost of doing
business to make the economy more competitive. But privatization adds interest payments, dividends, managerial payments,
stock buybacks, and merges and acquisitions . Obviously these financialized charges are factored into the price system
and raise the cost of living and doing business .
Power prices have increased yet again in Ontario since privatization, and Canada's 1% are "making a killing" on it. There has
been another change as well. Instead of a three tier price structure, there are now two, really expensive and super expensive.
There is no longer a price break to living like a nocturnal rodent. The 1% took that for themselves.
I am so tired of seeing that old lie about Old Henry and the $5 a day. I realize it was just a tossed off reference to something
most people believe for the purpose of describing a discarded policy, but the fact is very, very few of Old Henry's employees
ever got that pay. See, there were strings attached.
Old Henry hired a lot of spies, too. He sent them around to the neighborhoods where his workers lived (it was convenient having
them all in Detroit). If the neighbors saw your kid bringing a bucket of beer home from the corner tavern for the family, you
didn't get the $5.
If your lawn wasn't mowed to their satisfaction, you didn't get the $5. If you were thought not to bathe as often as they liked,
you didn't get the $5. If you didn't go to a church on Sundays, you didn't get the $5. If you were an immigrant and not taking
English classes at night school, you didn't get the $5. There were quite a lot of strings attached. The whole story was a public
relations stunt, and Old Henry never intended to live up to it; he hated his workers.
"... Primates with about exponentially increasing physical technologies continue to deliberately ignore and misunderstand themselves as much as is humanly possible, due to the history of warfare making and maintaining the currently existing political economy, whose maliciousness is manifesting through runaway vicious feedback loops, whereby the excessively successful control of Civilization through applications of the methods of organized crime are resulting in that Civilization manifesting runaway criminal insanities. Indeed, in that context, where there is almost nothing but the central core of triumphant organized crime, namely bankster dominated governments, surrounded by various layers of controlled "opposition" groups, which stay within the same bullshit-based frames of reference regarding those phenomena, the overall situation is that society becoming about exponentially sicker and insane. ..."
"... In general, "Asset Managers" are stuck inside taking for granted that everything they do has become almost totally based on being able to enforce frauds, despite some of them noticing the increasingly blatant ways that there are accumulating apparent anomalies in those systems, as vicious feedback loops drive those systems to become about exponentially more fraudulent, and therefore increasingly unbalanced. To come to better terms with those apparent anomalies requires going through series of intellectual scientific revolutions and profound paradigm shifts, which overall become ways that human beings better understand themselves as manifestations of general energy systems. However, since doing so requires recognizing how and why governments are necessarily the biggest forms of organized crime, dominated by the best organized gangsters, the banksters, it continues to be politically impossible to accomplish that. ..."
"... At each open, algos compute the increase in their AUM from the prior day and their margin reach. They then begin buying. All algos do this. Buying whenever cash/margin exists; selling whenever profit targets exist. On pullbacks, the algos withdraw, volume evaporates, minimizing the drop. The algos collectively increase equity prices without consideration of the value of the money involved. Not valuations. No fundamentals. Just ones and zeroes. Just a program. ..."
Macro-prudential regulations follow financial crises, rarely do they precede one. Even when evidence is abundant of systemic risks
building up, as is today, regulators and policymakers have a marked tendency to turn an institutional blind eye, hoping for imbalances
to fizzle out on their own – at least beyond the duration of their mandates. It does not work differently in economics than it does
for politics, where short-termism drives the agenda, oftentimes at the expenses of either the next government, the broader population
or the next generation.
It does not work differently in the business world either, where corporate actions are selected based on the immediate gratification
of shareholders, which means pleasing them at the next round of earnings, often at the expenses of long-term planning and at times
exposing the company itself to disruption threats from up-and-comers.
Long-term vision does not pay; it barely shows up in the incentive schemes laid out for most professions . Economics is no exception.
Orthodoxy and stillness preserve the status quo, and the advantages hard earned by the few who rose from the ranks of the establishment
beforehand.
Yet, when it comes to Central Banking, and more in general policymaking, financial stability should top the priority list. It
honorably shows up in the utility function, together with price stability and employment, but is not pursued nearly as actively as
them. Central planning and interventionism is no anathema when it comes to target the decimals of unemployment or consumer prices,
yet is residual when it comes to master systemic risks, relegated to the camp of ex-post macro-prudential regulation. This is all
the more surprising as we know all too well how badly a deep unsettlement of financial markets can reverberate across the real economy,
possibly leading into recessions, unemployment, un-anchoring of inflation expectations and durable disruption to consumer patterns.
There is no shortage of reminders for that in the history books, looking at the fallout of dee dives in markets in 1929, 2000 and
2007, amongst others.
Intriguingly, the other way round is accepted and even theorized. Manipulating bond and stock prices, directly or indirectly,
is mainstream policy theory today. From Ben Bernanke's 'portfolio balance channel theory', to the relentless pursuit of the 'wealth
effect' via financial repression under Janet Yellen and Haruhiko Kuroda, to Mario Draghi tackling the fragmentation of credit markets
across the EU via direct asset purchases, the practice has become commonplace. To some, like us, the 'wealth effect' may be proving
to be more of an 'inequality effect' than much, leading to populism and constantly threatening regime change, but that is beyond
the scope of this note today.
What we want to focus on instead is the direct impact that monetary interventionism like Quantitative Easing ('QE') and Negative
or Zero Interest Rate Policies ('NIRP' or 'ZIRP') have on the structure of the market itself, how they help create a one-sided investment
community, oftentimes long-only, fully invested when not levered up, relying on record-highs for bonds and stocks to perpetuate themselves
endlessly - despite a striking disconnect from fundamentals, life-dependent on the lowest levels of volatility ever seen in history
. The market structure morphed under the eyes of policymakers over the last few years, to become a pressure cooker at risk of blowing-up,
with a small but steadily growing probability as times goes by and the bubble inflates. The
positive feedback loops between monetary flooding and the private investment
community are culpable for transforming an ever present market risk into a systemic risk, and for masking as peaceful what is instead
an unstable equilibrium and
market fragility.
Positive Feedback Loops create divergence from general equilibrium, and Systemic Risks
Positive feedback loops , in finance like in biology, chemistry, cybernetics, breed system instability, as they orchestrate a
further divergence from equilibrium . An unstable equilibrium is defined as one where a small disturbance is sufficient to trigger
a large adjustment.
QE and NIRP have two predominant effects on markets: (i) relentless up-trend in stocks and bonds (the 'Trend Factor') , dominated
by the buy-the-dip mentality, which encapsulates the 'moral hazard' of investors knowing Central Banks are prompt to come to their
rescue (otherwise known as 'Bernanke/Yellen/Kuroda/Draghi put'), and (ii) the relentless down-trend in volatility the 'Volatility
Factor').
Two Factors Explain All: Trend and Volatility
The most fashionable investment strategies these days are directly impacted by either one or both of these drivers. Such strategies
make the bulk of the overall market, after leverage or turnover is taken into account : we will refer to them in the following as
'passive' or 'quasi-passive' . The trend impacts the long-only community, crowning it as a sure winner, making the case for low-
cost passive investing. The low volatility permeates everything else, making the case for full- investment and leverage.
The vast majority of investors these days are not independent from the QE environment they operate within : ETFs and index funds,
Risk Parity funds and Target Volatility vehicles, Low Volatility / Short Volatility vehicles, trend-chasing algos, Machine Learning-inspired
funds, behavioral Alternative Risk Premia funds. They are the poster children of the QE world. We estimate combined assets under
management of in excess of $8trn across the spectrum. They form a broad category of 'passive' or 'quasi-passive' investors, as are
being mechanically driven by two main factors: trend and volatility.
Source: Fasanara Presentations | Market Fragility
- How to Position for Twin Bubbles Bust, 16 th October 2017. The slide is described in details in this
video recording.
Extraordinary monetary policies have feedback loops with the asset management industry as a whole, reinforcing the effects on
markets of such policies in a vicious – or virtuous - cycle . QE and NIRP help a large number of investment strategies to flourish,
validating their success and supporting their asset gathering in the process, and are in return helped in boosting bond and stock
markets by their flows joining the already monumental public flows.
Private flows so reach singularity with public flows, and the whole market economy morphs into a one big common bet on ever-rising
prices, in shallow volatility. Here is the story of how $15trn of money printing by major Central Banks in the last ten years, of
which $3.7trn in 2017 alone, is joined by total assets of $8trn managed into buying the same safe and risk assets across, with leverage,
indiscriminately.
How Market Risk became Systemic Risk
Let's give a cursory look at the main players involved (a recent presentation we did is recorded
here) . As markets trend higher, no matter what happens (ever against the
shocked disbeliefs of Brexit, Trump, an Italian failed referendum and nuclear threats in North Korea), investors understand the outperformance
that comes from pricing risks out of their portfolios entirely and going long-only and fully-invested. Whoever under-weighs positions
in an attempt to be prudent ends up underperforming its benchmarks and is then penalized with redemptions. Passive investors who
are long-only and fully invested are the winners, as they are designed to be bold and insensitive to risks. As Central Banks policies
reduce the level of interest rates to zero or whereabouts, fees become ever more relevant, making the case for passive investing
most compelling. The rise of ETF and passive index funds is then inevitable.
According to JP Morgan, in the last 10 years, $2trn left active managers in equities and $2trn entered passive managers (pag.39
here) . We may be excused for thinking they are the
same $ 2trn of underlying investors progressively pricing risk provisions out of books, de facto , while chasing outperformance and
lower fees.
To be sure, ETFs are a great financial innovation, helping reducing costs in an expensive industry and giving entry to markets
previously un-accessible to most investors. Yet, what matters here is their impact on systemic risks, via positive feedback loops.
In circular reference, beyond Central Banks flows, markets are helped rise by such classes of valuations-insensitive passive investors,
which are then rewarded with further inflows, with which they can then buy more. The more expensive valuations get, the more they
disconnect from fundamentals, the more divergence from equilibrium occurs, the larger fat-tail risks become.
In ever-rising markets, 'buy-and-hold' strategies may only possibly be outsmarted by 'buy-the-dip' strategies. Whatever the outcome
of risk events, be ready to buy the dip quickly and blindly. As more investors design themselves up to do so, the dips are shallower
over time, leading to an S&P500 that never lost 3% in 2017, an historical milestone. Machine learning is another beautiful market
innovation, but what is there to learn from the time series of the last several years, if not that buy- the-dip works, irrespective
of what caused the dip. Big Data is yet another great concept, shaping the future of us all. Yet, most data ever generated in humankind
dates back three years only, in and by itself a striking limitation. The quality of the deduction cannot exceed the quality of the
time series upon which the data science was applied. If the time series is untrustworthy, as is heavily influenced by monumental
public flows ($300bn per months), what trust can we put on any model output originating from it? What pattern recognition can we
really be hopeful of getting, in the first place? May some of it just be a commercial disguise for going long, selling volatility
and leveraging up in various shapes or forms? What is hype and what is real? A short and compromised data series makes it hard, if
not possible, to really know. Once public flows abate and price discovery is let free again, then and only then will we be in a position
to know the difference.
Low volatility does what trending markets alone cannot. A state of low volatility presents the appearance of
stuporous, innocuous, narcotized markets, thus
enticing new swathes of unfitting investors in, mostly retail-type 'weak hands'. Weak hands are investors who are brought to like
investments by certain characteristics which are uncommon to the specific investment itself, such as featuring a low volatility.
It is in this form that we see bond-like investors looking at the stock market for yield pick-up purposes, magnetized by levels of
realized volatility similar to what fixed income used to provide with during the Great Moderation. It is in this form that Tech companies
out of the US have started filling the coffers of not just Growth ETF, where they should rightfully reside, but also Momentum ETF,
and even, incredibly, Low-Volatility ETF.
Low volatility is also a dominant input for Risk Parity funds and Target Volatility vehicles . The lower the volatility, the higher
the leverage allowed in such players, mechanically. All of which are long-only players, joining public flows, again helping the market
rise to record levels in the process, in circular reference. Rewarded by new inflows, the buying spree gathers momentum, in a virtuous
circle. Valuations are no real input in the process, volatility is what matters the most. Volatility is not risk, except for them
it is.
It goes further than that. It is not only the level of volatility that count, but its direction too . As volatility implodes,
relentlessly, into historical lows never seen before in history, a plethora of investment strategies is launched to capitalize on
just that, directly: Short Volatility vehicles . They are the best performing strategy of the last decade, by and large. The problem
here is that, due to construction, as volatility got to single-digit territory, relatively small spikes are now enough to trigger
wipe-out events on several of these instruments. Our analysis shows that if equity volatility doubles up from current levels (while
still being half of what it was as recently as in August 2015), certain Short Vol ETFs may stand to lose up to 75% or more. Moreover,
short positions on long-vol ETFs can lose up to 250% of capital. For some, 'termination events' are built into contracts for sudden
losses of this magnitude, meaning that the notes would be prematurely withdrawn. It is one thing to expect a spike in volatility
to cause losses, it is quite another to know that a minor move is all it takes to trigger a default event.
On such spikes in volatility, Morgan Stanley Quant Derivatives Strategy desk warns further that market makers may be forced to
rebalance their exposure non-linearly on a spike in volatility. A drop in the S&P 500 of 5% in one day may trigger approximately
$ 400mn of Vega notional of rebalancing (pag.48 here)
. We estimate that half a trillion dollars of additional selling on S&P stocks may occur following a correction of between 5% and
10%. That is a lot of selling, pre-set in markets, waiting to strike. Unless you expect the market to not have another 5% sell-off,
ever again.
What do ETFs, Risk Parity and Target Vol vehicles, Low Vol / Short Vol vehicles, trend-chasing algos, Machine Learning, behavioral
Alternative Risk Premia, factor investing have in common? Except, of course, being the 'winners take all' of QE-driven markets. They
all share one or more of the following risk factors: long-only, fully invested when not leveraged-up, short volatility, short correlation,
short gamma Thanks to QE and NIRP, the whole market is becoming one single big position.
The 'Trend Factor' and the 'Volatility Factor' are over-whelming, making it inevitable for a high- beta, long-bias, short-vol
proxy to disseminate across. Almost inescapably so, given the time series the asset management industry has to deal with, and derive
its signals from.
Several classes of investors may move to sell in lock-steps if and when markets turn. The boost to asset prices and the zero-volatility
environment created the conditions for systemic risks in the form of an over-compensation to the downside. Record-low volatility
breeds market fragility, it precedes system instability.
Flows Matter, Both Ways!
We will know soon if the fragility of markets is that bad. The undoing of loose monetary policies (NIRP, ZIRP) will create a liquidity
withdrawal of over $1 trillion in 2018 alone (pag.61-62
here) . The reaction of the passive and quasi-passive communities will determine the speed of the adjustment in the pricing for
both safe and risk assets, and how quickly risk provisions will re- enter portfolios. Such liquidity withdrawal will represent the
first real crash-test for markets in 10 years.
As public spending on Wall Street abates, the risk is evident of seeing the whole market turning with it. The shocks of Trump
and Brexit did not manage to derail markets for long, as public flows were overwhelming. Flows is what mattered, above all elusive,
over-fitting economic narratives justifying price action at the margin. Flows may matter again now as they fade
Systemic Risk is Not Just About Banks: Look at Funds
The role of trending markets is known when it comes to systemic risks: a not sufficient but necessary condition. Most trends do
not necessarily lead to systemic risks, but hardly systemic risks ever build up without a prolonged period of uptrend beforehand.
Prolonged uptrends in any asset class hold the potential to instill the perception that such asset class will grow forever, irrespective
of the fundamentals, and may thus lead to excessive risk taking, excess leverage, the formation of a bubble and, ultimately, systemic
risks. The mind goes to the asset class of real estate, its undeterred uptrend into 2006/2007, its perception of perpetuity ("we
have never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis''
Ben Bernanke) , the credit bubble built on banks hazardous activities on subprime mortgages as a result, and the systemic risks
which emanated, with damages spanning well beyond the borders of real estate.
The role of volatility is also well-researched, especially low volatility. Hayman Minsky, in his "
Financial Instability
Hypothesis '' in 1977, analyses the behavioral changes induced by a reduction of volatility, postulating that economic agents
observing a low risk are induced to increase risk taking, which may in turn lead to a crisis: "stability is destabilizing". In a
recent study, Jon Danielsson, Director
of the Systemic Risk Centre at the LSE, finds unambiguous support for the 'low volatility channel', insofar as prolonged periods
of low volatility have a strong predictive power over the incidence of a banking crisis, owing to excess lending and excess leverage
. The economic impact is the highest if the economy stays in the low volatility environment for five years : a 1% decrease in volatility
below its trend translates in a 1.01% increase in the probability of a crisis. He also finds that, counter-intuitively, high volatility
has little predictive power : very interesting, when the whole finance world at large is based on retrospective VAR metrics, and
equivocates high volatility for high risk.
Both a persistent trend and prolonged low-volatility can lead banks to take excessive risks. But what about their impact on the
asset management industry?
Thinking at the hard economic impact of the Great Depression (1929-1932) and the Great Recession (2007-2009), and the eminent
role played by banks in both, it comes as little surprise that the banking sector captures all the attention. However, what remains
to be looked into, and perhaps more worrying in today's environment, is the role of prolonged periods of uptrend and low-vol on the
asset management industry
In 2014, the Financial Stability Board (FSB), an international body that makes recommendations to G20 nations on financial risks,
published a consultation paper asking whether fund managers might need to be designated as " global systemically important financial
institution " or G-SIFI, a step that would involve greater regulation and oversight. It did not result in much, as the industry lobbied
in protest, emphasizing the difference between the levered balance sheet of a bank and the business of funds.
The reason for asking the question is evident: (i) sheer size , as the AM industry ballooned in the last few years, to now represent
over [15trnXX] for just the top 5 US players!, (ii) funds have partially substituted banks in certain market-making activities, as
banks dialed back their participation in response to tighter regulation and (iii) , funds can indeed do damage: think of LTCM in
1998, the fatal bailout of two Real Estate funds by Bear Stearns in 2007, the money market funds 'breaking the buck' in 2008 amongst
others.
But it is not just sheer size that matters for asset managers. What may worry more is the positive feedback loops discussed above
and the resulting concentration of bets in one single global pot , life-dependent on infinite momentum/trend and ever-falling volatility.
Positive feedback loops are the link for the sheer size of the AM industry to become systemically relevant. Today more than ever,
they morph market risks in systemic risks.
Volatility will not forever be low, the trend will not forever go: how bad a damage when it stops? As macro prudential policy
is not the art of "whether or not it will happen" but of "what happens if", it is hard not to see this as a blind spot for policymakers
nowadays.
I have never seen it this bad, the numbers are all moutof wack!
It seems many of us are drawn to a good illusion and this proves true for most people in their daily life as well. In some
ways, it could be said that our culture has become obsessed with avoiding what is real.
We must remember that politicians and those in power tend to throw people under the bus rather than rise up and take responsibility
for the problems they create. The article below looks at how we have grown to believe things are fine.
The real estate boom features all the unknowns in today's thinking, which is why they are global.
This simple equation is unknown.
Disposable income = wages – (taxes + the cost of living)
You can immediately see how high housing costs have to be covered by wages; business pays the high housing costs for expensive
housing adding to costs and reducing profits. The real estate boom raises costs to business and makes your nation uncompetitive
in a globalised world.
The unproductive lending involved that leads to financial crises.
The economy gets loaded up with unproductive lending as future spending power has been taken to inflate the value of the nation's
housing stock. Housing is more expensive and the future has been impoverished.
" banks make their profits by taking in deposits and lending the funds out at a higher rate of interest" Paul Krugman, 2015.
He wouldn't know, that's financial intermediation theory.
Bank lending creates money, which pours into the economy fuelling the boom; it is this money creation that makes the housing
boom feel so good in the general economy. It feels like there is lots of money about because there is.
The housing bust feels so bad because the opposite takes place, and money gets sucked out of the economy as the repayments
overtake new lending. It feels like there isn't much money about because there isn't.
They were known unknowns, the people that knew weren't the policymakers to whom these things were unknown.
The global economy told policymakers there was something seriously wrong in 2008, but they ignored it, I didn't.
They had pushed Greece into debt deflation by cutting Government spending with austerity.
It wasn't just the IMF, the Troika all went along with this fatally flawed policy, this means the ECB and EU Commission also
didn't know what they were doing.
Richard Koo had watched as Western "experts" told Japan to cut Government spending and seen the fall in GDP as the economy
went downhill. The only way to get things going again was to increase Government spending and he has had decades to work out what
was going on.
The Troika's bad economics has been wreaking havoc across the Club-Med.
Another superficially correct analysis of "Positive Feedback Loops create divergence from general equilibrium, and Systemic
Risks." The vicious feedback loops which have the most leverage are all aspects of the funding of the political processes, which
have resulted in runaway systems of legalized lies, backed by legalized violence, the most important of which are the ways that
the powers of public governments enforce frauds by private banks, the big corporations that have grown up around those big banks.
About exponentially advancing technologies have enabled enforced frauds to become about exponentially more fraudulent. The
underlying drivers were the ways that the combined money/murder systems developed, whose social successfulness became more and
more based on maximizing maliciousness. From a superficial point of view, those results may appear to be due to incompetence,
however, from a deeper point of view those results make sense as due to the excessively successful applications of the methods
of organized crime through the political processes, due to the vicious feedback loops of the funding of those political processes.
The only connections between human laws and natural laws are the abilities to back up lies with violence. Natural selection
pressures have driven Globalized Neolithic Civilization to develop the most dishonest artificial selection systems possible, while
the continuation of the various vicious feedback loops that made and maintained those developments are driving about exponentially
increasing dishonesty. Although the laws of nature are not going to stop working, and the laws of nature underpinned the runaway
development of excessively successful vicious feedback loops of organized crime, on larger and larger scales, to result in Globalized
Neolithic Civilization, the overall results are that Civilization is becoming about exponentially more psychotic. Since Civilization
necessarily operates according to the principles and methods of organized crime, while those who became the biggest and best organized
forms of organized crime, namely, banker dominated governments, also necessarily became most dishonest about themselves, and yet,
their bullshit social stories continue to dominate the public schools, and mainstream mass media, as well as the publicly significant
controlled "opposition" groups.
Political economy is INSIDE human ecology, and therefore, the greatest systematic risks are to be found in the tragic trajectory
of human ecologies which are almost totally buried under maximized maliciousness. "Public debates" about the human death control
systems are based on previously having being as deceitful and treacherous as possible regarding those topics. The most extreme
forms of that manifest as the ways that money is measurement backed by murder. Of course, that the debt controls are backed by
the death controls are issues which are generally not publicly admitted nor addressed.
Global Neolithic Civilization has become almost totally based on being able to enforce frauds, in ways which have become about
exponentially more fraudulent, as the vicious feedback loops which enable that to happen automatically reinforce themselves to
get worse, faster. The almost total triumph of enforced frauds has resulted in social "realities" which are becoming exponentially
more insane, since the social successfulness of enforced frauds requires the most people do not understand that, because they
have been conditioned to not want to understand that. Rather, almost everyone takes for granted deliberately ignoring and misunderstanding
the laws of nature in the most absurdly backward ways possible, because of the long history of successful warfare based on deceits
and treacheries becoming the more recent history of successful finance based on enforcing frauds, despite that tragic trajectory
of vicious feedback loops resulting in about exponentially increasing overall fraudulence.
Various superficially correct analyses, such as the one in the article above, are typical of the content on Zero Hedge , which
does not come remotely close to recognizing the degree to which the dominate natural languages and philosophy of science have
undergone series of compromises with the biggest bullies' bullshit-based world views, which became the banksters' bullshit about
economics. Although it is theoretically possible for human beings to better understand themselves and Civilization, it continues
to become more and more politically impossible to do so, due to the ever increasing vicious feedback loops of enforced frauds
achieving symbolic robberies ...
Although the laws of nature are never going to stop working, it is barely possible to exaggerate the degree to which Civilization
overall is becoming about exponentially more psychotic, due to the social "realities" based on successfully enforcing frauds becoming
more and more out of touch with the surrounding, relatively objective, physical and biological facts. The various superficially
correct analyses presented on Zero Hedge regarding that kind of runaway collective psychosis, driven by the vicious feedback loops
of the funding of all aspects of the funding of the political processes, tend to always grossly understate the seriousness of
that situation, especially including the crucial issues of how to operate the human murder systems after the development of weapons
of mass destruction, which is unavoidable due to the rapid development of globalized electronic monkey money frauds, backed by
the threat of force from apes with atomic weapons.
Those who believe that possessing precious metals, or cryptocurrencies, etc., are viable solutions to those problems are not
remotely close to being in the right order of magnitude. Although there is no doubt that exponentially more "money" is being made
out of nothing as debts, in order to "pay" for strip-mining the natural resources of a still relatively fresh planet, and so,
there is no doubt that the exponentially decreasing value of that "money" is driving the accumulation of apparent anomalies, such
as outlined in the article above, the actually crucial issues continue to be the ways that money is measurement backed by murder,
as the most abstract ways that private property are claims backed by coercions. Stop-gap individual responses to the runaway fraudulence,
such as faith in possessing precious metals or cryptocurrencies, make some relative sense in terms of the public "money" supplies
becoming exponentially more fraudulent, but otherwise dismally fail to be in the ball park of the significant issues driven by
prodigious progress in physical sciences, WITHOUT any genuine progress in political sciences, other than to continue to be able
to better enforce bigger frauds, through the elaborations of oxymoronic scientific dictatorships, which adamantly refuse to become
more genuinely scientific about themselves.
Primates with about exponentially increasing physical technologies continue to deliberately ignore and misunderstand themselves
as much as is humanly possible, due to the history of warfare making and maintaining the currently existing political economy,
whose maliciousness is manifesting through runaway vicious feedback loops, whereby the excessively successful control of Civilization
through applications of the methods of organized crime are resulting in that Civilization manifesting runaway criminal insanities.
Indeed, in that context, where there is almost nothing but the central core of triumphant organized crime, namely bankster dominated
governments, surrounded by various layers of controlled "opposition" groups, which stay within the same bullshit-based frames
of reference regarding those phenomena, the overall situation is that society becoming about exponentially sicker and insane.
That Civilization has been driven by natural selection pressures to manifest runaway psychoses is not going to stop the laws
of nature from continuing to work through that Civilization. However, that will nevertheless drive the currently dominate artificial
selection systems to become increasingly psychotic, in ways whereby their vicious feedback loops are less and less able to be
sanely responded to ... Although some human beings have better and better understood some general energy systems, e.g., electric
and atomic energy, etc., since warfare was the oldest and best developed forms of social science and engineering, whose successfulness
was based on being able to maximize maliciousness, and since those then enabled successful finance to become based on runaway
enforced frauds, human beings living within Globalized Neolithic Civilization are so hidebound by adapting to living inside those
vicious feedback loops based on being able to enforce frauds that those human beings are mostly unwilling and unable to better
understand themselves as also manifestations of general energy systems.
As the report, embedded in the article, begins by quoting Leonardo da Vinci:
"Learn how to see. Realize that everything connects to everything else."
In general, "Asset Managers" are stuck inside taking for granted that everything they do has become almost totally based
on being able to enforce frauds, despite some of them noticing the increasingly blatant ways that there are accumulating apparent
anomalies in those systems, as vicious feedback loops drive those systems to become about exponentially more fraudulent, and therefore
increasingly unbalanced. To come to better terms with those apparent anomalies requires going through series of intellectual scientific
revolutions and profound paradigm shifts, which overall become ways that human beings better understand themselves as manifestations
of general energy systems. However, since doing so requires recognizing how and why governments are necessarily the biggest forms
of organized crime, dominated by the best organized gangsters, the banksters, it continues to be politically impossible to accomplish
that.
At each open, algos compute the increase in their AUM from the prior day and their margin reach. They then begin buying.
All algos do this. Buying whenever cash/margin exists; selling whenever profit targets exist. On pullbacks, the algos withdraw,
volume evaporates, minimizing the drop. The algos collectively increase equity prices without consideration of the value of the
money involved. Not valuations. No fundamentals. Just ones and zeroes. Just a program.
"... Well, again, what he was doing was running a program of a certain scale, of a large scale, through a set of standard macroeconomic assumptions. And that, again, is a reasonable exercise. If you ask me what my personal view is, I've written a whole book called The End of Normal in which I lay out reasons for my chronic pessimism about the capacity of the world economy to absorb a great deal more rapid economic growth. ..."
"... But that's not in the standard models, and it would not be appropriate to layer that on to a forecast of this kind. What Friedman was criticized for was not for putting his thumb on the scale, but for failing to put his thumb on the scale. In fact, that was the reasonable thing to do ..."
"... So what we had here was a, what was essentially an academic exercise that produced a result that was highly favorable to the Sanders position, and showed that if you did an ambitious program you would get a strong growth response. It's reasonable, certainly, for the first three or four years that that would transpire in practice. And what happened was that people who didn't like that result politically jumped on it in a way which was, frankly speaking, professionally irresponsible, in my view. It was designed to convey the impression, which it succeeded in doing for a brief while through the broad media, that this was not a reputable exercise, and that there were responsible people on one side of the debate, and irresponsible people on the other. ..."
"... The true nature of Capitalism has obviously been forgotten over time. Today we think it brings prosperity to all, but that was certainly never the intention. Today's raw Capitalism is showing its true nature with ever rising inequality. Capitalism is essentially the same as every other social system since the dawn of civilization. The lower and middle classes do all the work and the upper, leisure Class, live in the lap of luxury. The lower class does the manual work; the middle class does the administrative and managerial work and the upper, leisure, class live a life of luxury and leisure. ..."
"... The nature of the Leisure Class, to which the benefits of every system accrue, was studied over 100 years ago. "The Theory of the Leisure Class: An Economic Study of Institutions", by Thorstein Veblen. (The Wikipedia entry gives a good insight. It was written a long time ago but much of it is as true today as it was then. This is the source of the term conspicuous consumption.) We still have our leisure class in the UK, the Aristocracy, and they have been doing very little for centuries. The UK's aristocracy has seen social systems come and go, but they all provide a life of luxury and leisure and with someone else doing all the work. ..."
"... Feudalism – exploit the masses through land ownership. Capitalism – exploit the masses through wealth (Capital) ..."
"... Now the competition has gone, the US middle class is being wiped out. The US is going third world, with just rich and poor and no middle class. Raw Capitalism can only return Capitalism to its true state where there is little demand and those at the bottom live a life of bare subsistence. ..."
"... "The Marxian capitalist has infinite shrewdness and cunning on everything except matters pertaining to his own ultimate survival. On these, he is not subject to education. He continues wilfully and reliably down the path to his own destruction" ..."
"... "We came, we saw, he died" rinse and repeat for 5,000 years. ..."
"... By the 1920s, mass production techniques had improved to such an extent that relatively wealthy consumers were required to purchase all the output the system could produce and extensive advertising was required to manufacture demand for the chronic over-supply the Capitalist system could produce. ..."
"... They knew that if wealth concentrated too much there would not be enough demand. ..."
"... Fiscal conservatism, which champions a balanced budget and expenditure restraints, is often hailed as a politico-economic philosophy as well as a policy of financial responsibility. In practice, it has been used as an argument against free spending by governments which can lead to high levels of debt and inflation. It has not been a positive philosophy which advocates the pro-growth and stability benefits coming from balanced budgets. Rather, it is a negative one – reacting against excessive spending and its consequences. This is probably why modern examples of fiscal conservatism in the United States and the United Kingdom have not led to sustainable growth or a significant reduction in public debt. Instead, in the case of the Ronald Reagan era in the US in the 1980s, public debt soared as fiscal conservatism and other policies were abandoned. ..."
"... Galbraith is probably my favorite economist, and eminently reasonable here. It makes me think that Sanders should have used him, or someone like him as an adviser/in house economist, rather than relying on external analyses like Friedman. ..."
"... Is the American public, trained/indoctrinated to think of the USG budget in terms of a household budget analogy, ready for MMT? ..."
"... To me, too many of the supposed (and actual) intellectuals and high level advisers were experts in rationalizing and explaining the chosen party views, but still employed the Cato Institute suggestion to use "Leninist" propaganda techniques as put forth in the 1996 Newt Gingrich/Frank Luntz GoPac memo, "Language: A Key Mechanism of Control." ..."
"... Galbraith said casually about the thesis of his new book: This really is the new normal for capitalism – meaning low growth – because there is not much growth left. ..."
PERIES: James, the Council of Economic Advisors, they put out economic forecasts each year. And there has been some wildly
optimistic ones. For example, if you look at the 2010 predictions for 2012 and 2013 they have not quite been attained. And one would
say it was done in the interest of trying to make the administration that they were serving more impressive. But what accounts for
this particular attack on Friedman's projection and other fellow economists?
GALBRAITH: This was a classic case of professional bad manners and rank-pulling. What we had here were four former chairs
of the president's Council of Economic Advisors, and two from President Obama, two from President Clinton, who decided to use their
big names and their titles in order to launch an attack on a professor of economics at the University of Massachusetts who had written
a paper evaluating the Sanders economic program.
It's likely that the four bigwigs thought that Professor Friedman was a Bernie Sanders supporter. In fact, as of that time he
was a Hillary Clinton supporter and a modest donor to her campaign. What he had done was simply to write his evaluation of the economic
effects of the ambitious Sanders reform program. The four former council chairs announced that on the basis of their deep commitment
to rigor and objectivity, they had discovered that this forecast was unrealistic. And what I pointed out was that that claim was
based on no evidence and no analysis whatsoever. And when you pressed down on it you found that it was simply based on the obvious
fact that we haven't seen the kinds of growth rates that Professor Friedman's analysis suggested the Sanders program would produce.
And for a very simple reason: the Sanders program is bigger. It's more ambitious than anything we've seen in recent years, so it's
not surprising that when you put it through a model it generates a higher growth rate.
So that was the basic underlying facts, and these guys, two men and two women, announced that they, that it was a disreputable
study, but failed to present any analysis that suggested they'd actually even read the paper before they denounced it. And that's
what I pointed out in my counter letter, in a number of articles that have appeared since.
PERIES: James, so in your letter, how do you counter them? What methods did you use to come to your conclusions?
GALBRAITH: Well, I, no need to say anything beyond the fact that I had looked in their letter for the rigor that they were
so proud of, for the objectivity and the analysis that they were so proud of, and I'd found that they had not done any. They had
not made any such claim, not done any such work.
So that began to provoke a discussion. It's fair to say ultimately, without apologizing for effectively launching an ad hominem
attack on an independent academic researcher, one of the former chairs, Christina Romer of President Obama's council, and her husband
David Romer, a fellow economist, did produce a paper in which they spelled out their differences with the, with the Friedman paper.
But that, again, raised another set of interesting issues which we've continued to discuss at various, various outlets of the press.
PERIES: Now, James Friedman's claim that the growth rate from Sanders' plan to be around 5.3 percent. And some economists,
including Dean Baker at the Center for Economic Policy and Research, have claimed that this is unrealistic. What do you make of that?
GALBRAITH: Well, the question is whether it is an effect, let's say, a reasonable projection, of putting the Sanders program
into an economic model. And the answer to that question, yes, Professor Friedman did a reasonable job. He spelled out what the underlying
assumptions that he was using were. He spelled out the basic rules of thumb that macroeconomists had used for decades to assess the
effects of an economic program. In this case, an expansionary economic program. And he ran them through his model and reported the
results, a perfectly reasonable thing to do.
Now, one can be skeptical. And I am, and Dean Baker is, lots of people are skeptical that the world would work out quite that
way, because lots of things, in fact, happen which are not accounted for in a model. And we've talked, we've basically put together
a list of things that you think might be problematic. But the exercise here was not to put everything into paper that might happen
in the world. The exercise was to take the kind of bare bones that economists use to assess and to compare the consequences of alternative
programs, and to ask what kind of results do you get out? And that's what, again, what Jerry Friedman did. It was a reasonable exercise,
he came up with a reasonable answer, and he reported it.
PERIES: Now, Friedman seems to think that the rate of full employment in 1999 is attainable. However, many labor economists
seem to think that the larger share of the elderly currently in society compared to 1999 explains some of the lack of labor participation,
which creates a lower full employment ceiling that's contradicting Friedman's report. Your thoughts on that?
GALBRAITH: Well, I think it is a fact that the population is getting older. But as, I think, any economist would tell you,
that when you offer jobs in the labor market, the first thing that happens is the people who are looking for work take those jobs.
The second thing that happens is that people who might look for work when jobs were available start coming back into the labor market.
And if that is not enough to fill the vacancies that you have, it's perfectly open to employers to raise their wages so as to bring
more people in, or to increase the pace at which they innovate and substitute technology for labor so that they don't need the work.
So there's no real crisis involved in the situation if it turns out five years from now we're at 3.5 percent unemployment, and
they were beginning to run short of labor. That's not a reason to, at this stage, say no, we're not going to engage in the exercise
and run a more expansionary, vigorous reform program, a vigorous infrastructure project, a major reform of healthcare, a tuition-free
public education program. All of those things, which were part of what Friedman put into his paper, should be done anyway. The fact
that the labor market forecast might prove to have some different, the labor market might have different characteristics in five
years' time is from our present point of view just a, it's an academic or a theoretical proposition, purely.
PERIES: And Friedman's paper, he looks at a ten-year forecast. Did you feel that when you looked at the specifics of that,
including college, universal healthcare, infrastructure spending and of course, expanding Social Security and so on, that those categories
and his predictions or projections, rather, made sense to you?
GALBRAITH:Well, again, what he was doing was running a program of a certain scale, of a large scale, through a set
of standard macroeconomic assumptions. And that, again, is a reasonable exercise. If you ask me what my personal view is, I've written
a whole book called The End of Normal in which I lay out reasons for my chronic pessimism about the capacity of the world economy
to absorb a great deal more rapid economic growth.
But that's not in the standard models, and it would not be appropriate to layer that on to a forecast of this kind. What Friedman
was criticized for was not for putting his thumb on the scale, but for failing to put his thumb on the scale. In fact, that was the
reasonable thing to do.
On the contrary, and on the other side, when Christina and David Romer did put out their forecast, their own criticism of the
Friedman paper, they concluded by asserting that if this program were tried, inflation would soar. So they there were making an allegation
for which, again, they had no evidence and no plausible model, that in the world in which we presently live would produce that result.
So what we had here was a, what was essentially an academic exercise that produced a result that was highly favorable to the
Sanders position, and showed that if you did an ambitious program you would get a strong growth response. It's reasonable, certainly,
for the first three or four years that that would transpire in practice. And what happened was that people who didn't like that result
politically jumped on it in a way which was, frankly speaking, professionally irresponsible, in my view. It was designed to convey
the impression, which it succeeded in doing for a brief while through the broad media, that this was not a reputable exercise, and
that there were responsible people on one side of the debate, and irresponsible people on the other.
And that was, again, something that–an impression that could be conveyed through the mass media, but would not withstand scrutiny,
and didn't withstand scrutiny, once a few of us stood up and started saying, okay, where's your evidence, on what are you basing
this argument? And revealed the point, which the Romers implicitly conceded, and I give them credit for that, that in order to criticize
a fellow economist you need to do some work.
The true nature of Capitalism has obviously been forgotten over time. Today we think it brings prosperity to all, but that
was certainly never the intention. Today's raw Capitalism is showing its true nature with ever rising inequality. Capitalism is
essentially the same as every other social system since the dawn of civilization. The lower and middle classes do all the work
and the upper, leisure Class, live in the lap of luxury. The lower class does the manual work; the middle class does the administrative
and managerial work and the upper, leisure, class live a life of luxury and leisure.
The nature of the Leisure Class, to which the benefits of every system accrue, was studied over 100 years ago. "The Theory
of the Leisure Class: An Economic Study of Institutions", by Thorstein Veblen. (The Wikipedia entry gives a good insight. It was
written a long time ago but much of it is as true today as it was then. This is the source of the term conspicuous consumption.)
We still have our leisure class in the UK, the Aristocracy, and they have been doing very little for centuries. The UK's aristocracy
has seen social systems come and go, but they all provide a life of luxury and leisure and with someone else doing all the work.
Feudalism – exploit the masses through land ownership. Capitalism – exploit the masses through wealth (Capital)
Today this is done through the parasitic, rentier trickle up of Capitalism:
a) Those with excess capital invest it and collect interest, dividends and rent.
b) Those with insufficient capital borrow money and pay interest and rent.
All this was much easier to see in Capitalism's earlier days.
Malthus and Ricardo never saw those at the bottom rising out of a bare subsistence living. This was the way it had always been
and always would be, the benefits of the system only accrue to those at the top.
It was very obvious to Adam Smith:
"The Labour and time of the poor is in civilised countries sacrificed to the maintaining of the rich in ease and luxury. The
Landlord is maintained in idleness and luxury by the labour of his tenants. The moneyed man is supported by his extractions from
the industrious merchant and the needy who are obliged to support him in ease by a return for the use of his money. But every
savage has the full fruits of his own labours; there are no landlords, no usurers and no tax gatherers."
Like most classical economists he differentiated between "earned" and "unearned" wealth and noted how the wealthy maintained
themselves in idleness and luxury via "unearned", rentier income from their land and capital.
We can no longer see the difference between the productive side of the economy and the unproductive, parasitic, rentier side.
This is probably why inequality is rising so fast, the mechanisms by which the system looks after those at the top are now hidden
from us.
In the 19th Century things were still very obvious.
1) Those at the top were very wealthy
2) Those lower down lived in grinding poverty, paid just enough to keep them alive to work with as little time off as possible.
3) Slavery
4) Child Labour
Immense wealth at the top with nothing trickling down, just like today.
This is what Capitalism maximized for profit looks like. Labour costs are reduced to the absolute minimum to maximise profit.
The beginnings of regulation to deal with the wealthy UK businessman seeking to maximise profit, the abolition of slavery and
child labour. The function of the system is still laid bare. The lower class does the manual work; the middle class does the administrative
and managerial work and the upper, leisure, class live a life of luxury and leisure. The majority only got a larger slice of the
pie through organised Labour movements.
By the 1920s, mass production techniques had improved to such an extent that relatively wealthy consumers were required to
purchase all the output the system could produce and extensive advertising was required to manufacture demand for the chronic
over-supply the Capitalist system could produce. They knew that if wealth concentrated too much there would not be enough demand.
In the 1950s, when Capitalism had healthy competition, it was essential that the Capitalist system could demonstrate that it was
better than the competition. The US was able to demonstrate the superior lifestyle it offered to its average citizens.
Now the competition has gone, the US middle class is being wiped out. The US is going third world, with just rich and poor
and no middle class. Raw Capitalism can only return Capitalism to its true state where there is little demand and those at the
bottom live a life of bare subsistence.
When you realise the true nature of Capitalism, you know why some kind of redistribution is necessary and strong progressive
taxation is the only way a consumer society can ever be kept functioning.
A good quote from John Kenneth Galbraith's book "The Affluent Society", which in turn comes from Marx.
"The Marxian capitalist has infinite shrewdness and cunning on everything except matters pertaining to his own ultimate
survival. On these, he is not subject to education. He continues wilfully and reliably down the path to his own destruction"
Marx made some mistakes but he got quite a lot right.
Perhaps, Western civilization had already cultivated and concentrated psychopathic personality traits in its elite before Capitalism
ever begun. Early European history is an endless procession of wars at home and abroad as the elite took their wealth by force
and the masses were kept in check by force whenever necessary.
No peaceful group could ever survive this relentless onslaught of millennia. This psychopathic elite then took their warlike
ways to every corner of the earth. The wealthy elite from this era then became the wealthy elite of the next Capitalist era. Even
today their bloodlust cannot be sated as they look to control a global empire.
Certainly countless hundreds of peaceful, responsible, inclusive, open, empathetic indigenous societies have been co-opted/overthrown
by the western model.
Yes, but it's not just the western model that overthrows peaceful societies. The empires of China, the Japanese monarchies,
the empires of India (together with a cringeworthy caste system), the human sacrificing Aztecs, Mayas, and Incas, all prove that
tyranny is not a western invention.
When a local population becomes too large to be supported by simple egalitarian hunting and gathering, something else is required.
That something is agriculture, and almost inevitably, the organization, specialization, and partial urbanization required by large
scale agricultural society leads to exploitation and tyranny. This is seen in the earliest societies for which we have a written
record, Sumer and Egypt.
Thanks for the explanations of Veblen and Galbraith, which I find enduring basics over more than 100 years of speculation,
real investment, and the best way to keep consumer society healthy.
My unschooled, simple, way to measure the health of an economy is in the Velocity of Money in the real economy of useful products
and services. It appears to be very far below where it was when we did our best, and lower than when we first started measuring
it near the beginning of the Great Depression.
By the 1920s, mass production techniques had improved to such an extent that relatively wealthy consumers were required
to purchase all the output the system could produce and extensive advertising was required to manufacture demand for the chronic
over-supply the Capitalist system could produce.
They knew that if wealth concentrated too much there would not be enough demand.
Of course the Capitalists could never find it in themselves to raise wages and it took the New Deal and Keynesian thinking
to usher in the consumer society.
Fiscal conservatism, which champions a balanced budget and expenditure restraints, is often hailed as a politico-economic
philosophy as well as a policy of financial responsibility. In practice, it has been used as an argument against free spending
by governments which can lead to high levels of debt and inflation. It has not been a positive philosophy which advocates the
pro-growth and stability benefits coming from balanced budgets. Rather, it is a negative one – reacting against excessive spending
and its consequences. This is probably why modern examples of fiscal conservatism in the United States and the United Kingdom
have not led to sustainable growth or a significant reduction in public debt. Instead, in the case of the Ronald Reagan era in
the US in the 1980s, public debt soared as fiscal conservatism and other policies were abandoned.
A Monetarily Sovereign government does not need to reduce debt. In the U.S. (which is Monetarily Sovereign) federal so-called
"debt" is actually the total of deposits in T-security accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank. In short, "debt" is bank deposits.
Why anyone would want to reduce the size of deposits at the world's safest bank is a mystery to me - other than the misleading
use of the word "debt."
While all bank accounts are, in fact, debt of banks, most banks boast about the size of their depositors' accounts.
Contrary to popular myth, federal debt (i.e. deposits at the FRB) does not lead to inflation. America's "debt" has grown more
than 9,000% in the past 75 years, and the Fed is struggling to create inflation.
Galbraith is probably my favorite economist, and eminently reasonable here. It makes me think that Sanders should have
used him, or someone like him as an adviser/in house economist, rather than relying on external analyses like Friedman. It
would possibly have given his program more gravitas – first amongst elites, and then more generally. At least it would have had
a chance of changing the broader discussion. Whether you agree with it or not, right now the general MSM reporting on the Sanders
plan is that it doesn't add up.
This is speculative, but since Prof. Kelton is actually the economist for the Minority (the Democrats) of the Senate Banking
committee, there may be reasons of protocol that Sanders isn't using her policy ideas at the moment.
Another possibility is that trying to introduce a new economic paradigm while running for the nomination may be a bridge too
far. If Sanders tried to explain to people that taxes don't fund federal spending, etc., heads would explode.
I'm also not sure how one would use Prof. Kelton's ideas without bringing in a whole bunch of MMT concepts. Maybe if Sanders
wins the nomination he can begin to bring some of these ideas into the conversation.
He won't use her ideas simple because the American voter in not yet amenable to the facts of
Monetary Sovereignty .
Try explaining even to your best friend that:
1. Unlike state and local taxes, Federal taxes do not fund federal spending.
2. Even if FICA were eliminated, Social Security and Medicare benefits dramatically could (and should) be increased. There are
no federal "trust funds."
3. Federal deficits are necessary for economic growth
4. Federal "debt" is nothing more than deposits in T-security accounts at the Federal Reserve Bank.
5. America never has had, and is absolutely in no danger of, hyper-inflation.
Perhaps, if Bernie wins the election, he will be freer to educate the masses, as well as the economics community, but meanwhile
he has to claim the popular myth that federal spending has to be "paid for" by taxes.
Is the American public, trained/indoctrinated to think of the USG budget in terms of a household budget analogy, ready
for MMT? I think it's politically OK to use MMT informed policies–"deficits don't matter"–as the Republicans have, but not
OK to openly acknowledge doing so. MMT runs head on into bedrock beliefs like the protestant moral virtues of thrift and fiscal
responsibility. People cling to this stuff as tightly as they cling to their religion and guns.
MMT is a volatile, explosive doctrine. Tell an ordinary off-the-street taxpayer that Federal taxes don't fund Federal expenditures,
that Federal taxes destroy the money they collect and so keep inflation at desired levels, and ready yourself to answer this:
"If I'm just paying taxes so the money can be burned, why should I pay taxes? What good does paying taxes for that do me,
or people like me?"
And be prepared not to have your answer heard, comprehended, or accepted, after it is given.
It could lead directly and quickly to the end of a system of tax collection based on voluntary compliance. It could ignite
a revolution.
MMT is an unpopular doctrine. Whether it is the true theory, or a truer theory than others, of the state of the world–is not
the point.
She can't. She's his staffer (on the Senate Budget Committee) so she is now allowed to work on the campaign. It would be a
big ethics violation and would produce a scandal. Staffers cannot work on any of their bosses campaigns, including re-elections.
Remember, they are government employees, not on Sanders' personal payroll.
My old party has worked hard to try discredit James Galbraith. I was faced with some ridicule from a Bush era international
negotiator for trying to read "The Predator State: How Conservatives Abandoned the Free Market and Why Liberals Should Too" in
an airport waiting area.
To me, too many of the supposed (and actual) intellectuals and high level advisers were experts in rationalizing and explaining
the chosen party views, but still employed the Cato Institute suggestion to use "Leninist" propaganda techniques as put forth
in the 1996 Newt Gingrich/Frank Luntz GoPac memo, "Language: A Key Mechanism of Control."
I don't oppose them (at that level) expressing their well thought out views, even using the "persuasive" techniques described
in the document at http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article4443.htm
but I do fault them for trying to prevent people from freely exploring far more comprehensive information and views.
We left the party ancestors had founded and stayed loyal to for 5 generations, though, because of the lower level dirty tricksters
("opposition researchers") that wanted us to corrupt the processes as one fund raiser told me, "We have to fight dirtier than
Democrats."
Galbraith is a voice that must be listened to, just as there may be many others that we should be able to listen to (as I assume
we could have under the old "Fairness Doctrine" before the corporate take over of almost all fully accessible media).
stg Galbraith said casually about the thesis of his new book: This really is the new normal for capitalism – meaning low
growth – because there is not much growth left. So maybe we are headed for a no growth world in which stability and sustainability
dictate enterprise which is used to maintain a steady state – so that sounds more socialist than capitalist out of necessity.
I believe this is our future too. And I think I understand Varoufakis' and Galbraith's "modest proposal" in a clearer light because
growth must be used going forward not willy-nilly, but to achieve our ends. And also too – a while back the link that effectively
said we had it backwards when we assume that capitalism supports socialism – because capitalism in reality lives off and is only
possible under sufficient socialism. And it seems the 4 presidential advisors are more out to lunch than their letter showed.
Can't respond to all the nonsense. I just read Wolfer's piece and it seems to miss the point (as with the Romers), as noted
in the following 2 articles. I especially recommend the 2nd one from John Cassidy in the New Yorker.
as usual, i hear a lot "they" failed conservatism, never, Conservatism is just the age old avenue to "scam" the other. Bush
"failed" at conservatism, i.e., it was Bush's fault not the ideology of Conservatism. on and on, this self repeated/reinforced
"idea" that we have just not "found" the correct "application" of the ideal/reality that is Conservatism.
it does get old, too. all the people killed due to Conservatism and its' perpetrators. Greed, in other words, and the age old
scam with "new and improved" tactics. These people have no concept of what "society" is, why we are all interrelated. to scam
one is to scam us all. and these people are definitely not Christian in the "Jesus Christ" i've always heard about. Whatsoever
you do unto the poor, you do unto me!
i just suppose psychopaths use any avenue for their "crimes." as i've heard, too, any great fortune is usually the result of
a great crime.
This is an old article by Jesse, but today it sound even more pertinent then two years ago, before Trump ascendance to power.
"... Corrupt officials burden taxpayers with unsustainable amounts of debt for unproductive, grossly overpriced projects. "
.
"...would be wrong in these instances to blame the whole country, the whole government, or all corporations, except perhaps for
sleepwalking, and sometimes willfully, towards the abyss. For the most part a relatively small band of scheming and devious fellows
abuse and corrupt every form of government and organization and law in order to achieve their private ambitions, often using various
forms of intimidation and reward."
. "...The TPP and TTIP are integral initiatives in this effort of extending financial obligations, debt, and control."
. "..."Economic powers continue to justify the current global system where priority tends to be given to speculation and
the pursuit of financial gain. As a result, whatever is fragile, like the environment, is defenseless before the interests of the deified
market, which becomes the only rule." Francis I, Laudato Si "
This video below may help one to understand some of the seemingly obtuse demands from the Troika with regard to Greece.
The video is a bit dated, but the debt scheme it describes remains largely unchanged. The primary development has been the creation
of an experiment called the European Union and the character of the targets. One might also look to the wars of 'preventative intervention'
and 'colour revolutions' that raise up puppet regimes for examples of more contemporary economic spoliation. From largely small and
Third World countries, the candidates for debt peonage have become the smaller amongst the developed Western countries, the most
vulnerable on the periphery. And even the domestic populations of the monetary powers, the US, Germany, and the UK, are now feeling
the sting of financialisation, debt imposition through crises, and austerity. What used to only take place in South America and Africa
has now taken place in Jefferson County Alabama. Corrupt officials burden taxpayers with unsustainable amounts of debt for unproductive,
grossly overpriced projects.
It would be wrong in these instances to blame the whole country, the whole government, or all corporations, except perhaps
for sleepwalking, and sometimes willfully, towards the abyss. For the most part a relatively small band of scheming and devious fellows
abuse and corrupt every form of government and organization and law in order to achieve their private ambitions, often using various
forms of intimidation and reward. It is an old, old story. And then there is the mass looting enable by the most recent financial
crisis and Bank bailouts. If the people will not take on the chains of debt willingly, you impose them indirectly, while giving the
funds to your cronies who will use them against the very people who are bearing the burdens, while lecturing them on moral values
and thrift. It is an exceptionally diabolical con game.
The TPP and TTIP are integral initiatives in this effort of extending financial obligations, debt, and control. You might
ask yourself why the House Republicans, who have fought the current President at every turn, blocking nominees and even stages many
mock votes to repeatedly denounce a healthcare plan that originated in their own think tank and first implemented by their own presidential
candidate, are suddenly championing that President's highest profile legislation, and against the opposition of his own party? The
next step, after Greece is subdued, will be to extend that model to other, larger countries. And to redouble the austerity at home
under cover of the next financial crisis by eliminating cash as a safe haven, and to begin the steady stream of digital 'bailing-in.'
This is why these corporatists and statists hate gold and silver, by the way. And why it is at the focal point of a currency war.
It provides a counterweight to their monetary power. It speaks unpleasant truths. It is a safe haven and alternative, along with
other attempts to supplant the IMF and the World Bank, for the rest of the world. So when you say, the Philippines deserved it,
Iceland deserved it, Ireland deserved it, Africa deserves it, Jefferson County deserved it, Detroit deserved it, and now Greece deserves
it, just keep in mind that some day soon they will be saying that you deserve it, because you stood by and did nothing.
Because when they are done with all the others, for whom do you think they come next? If you wish to see injustice stopped,
if you wish to live up to the pledge of 'never again,' then you must stand for your fellows who are vulnerable. The economic hitmen
have honed their skills among the poor and relatively defenseless, and have been coming closer to home in search of new hunting grounds
and fatter spoils.
There is nothing 'new' or 'modern' about this. This is as old as Babylon, and evil as sin. It is the power of darkness of the
world, and of spiritual wickedness in high places. The only difference is that it is not happening in the past or in a book, it is
happening here and now.
"Economic powers continue to justify the current global system where priority tends to be given to speculation and the
pursuit of financial gain. As a result, whatever is fragile, like the environment, is defenseless before the interests of the
deified market, which becomes the only rule." Francis I, Laudato Si
You may also find some information about the contemporary applications of these methods in The IMF's 'Tough Choices' On Greece
by Jamie Galbraith.
"Plunderers of the world, when nothing remains on the lands to which they have laid waste by wanton thievery, they search
out across the seas. The wealth of another region excites their greed; and if it is weak, their lust for power as well. Nothing from
the rising to the setting of the sun is enough for them. Among all others only they are compelled to attack the poor as well as the
rich. Robbery, rape, and slaughter they falsely call empire; and where they make a desert, they call it peace."
Tacitus, Agricola Posted by Jesse at 11:46 AM Email This BlogThis! Share to Twitter Share to Facebook Share to Pinterest
Category: currency war, debt peonage, debt slavery, neo-colonialism, new world order
"This overly narrow hiring spec then leads to absurd, widespread complaint that companies can't find people with the right skills"
. In the IT job markets such postings are often called purple squirrels
Notable quotes:
"... In particular, there seems to be an extremely popular variant of the above where the starting proposition "God makes moral people rich" is improperly converted to "Rich people are more moral" which is then readily negated to "Poor people are immoral" and then expanded to "Poor people are immoral, thus they DESERVE to suffer for it". It's essentially the theological equivalent of dividing by zero ..."
"... That said, the ranks of the neoliberals are not small. They constitute what Jonathan Schell calls a "mass minority." I suspect the neoliberals have about the same level of popular support that the Nazis did at the time of their takeover of Germany in 1932, or the Bolsheviks had in Russia at the time of their takeover in 1917, which is about 20 or 25% of the total population. ..."
"... The ranks of the neoliberals are made to appear far greater than they really are because they have all but exclusive access to the nation's megaphone. The Tea Party can muster a handful of people to disrupt a town hall meeting and it gets coast to coast, primetime coverage. But let a million people protest against bank bailouts, and it is ignored. Thus, by manipulation of the media, the mass minority is made to appear to be much larger than it really is. ..."
Over the past three decades, large parts of our culture here in the US have internalized the lessons of the new Social Darwinism,
with a significant body of literature to explain and justify it. Many of us have internalized, without even realizing it,
the ideas of "dog eat dog", "every man for himself", "society should be structured like the animal kingdom, where the weak and
sick simply die because they cannot compete, and this is healthy", and "everything that happens to you is your own fault. There
is no such thing as circumstance that cannot be overcome, and certainly no birth lottery."
The levers pulled by politicians and the Fed put these things into practice, but even if we managed get different (better)
politicians or Fed chairmen, ones who weren't steeped in this culture and ideology, we'd still be left with the culture in the
population at large, and things like the "unemployed stigma" are likely to die very, very hard. Acceptance of the "just-world
phenomenon" here in the US runs deep.
perfect stranger:
"Religion is just as vulnerable to corporate capture as is the government or the academy."
This is rather rhetorical statement, and wrong one. One need to discern spiritual aspect of religion from the religion as a
tool.
Religion, as is structured, is complicit: in empoverishment, obedience, people's preconditioning, and legislative enabler in
the institutions such as Supreme – and non-supreme – Court(s). It is a form of PR of the ruling class for the governing class.
DownSouth:
perfect stranger,
Religion, just like human nature, is not that easy to put in a box.
For every example you can cite where religion "is complicit: in empoverishment, obedience, people's preconditioning, and legislative
enabler in the institution," I can point to an example of where religion engendered a liberating, emancipatory and revolutionary
spirit.
Examples:
•Early Christianity •Nominalism •Early Protestantism •Gandhi •Martin Luther King
Now granted, there don't seem to be any recent examples of this of any note, unless we consider Chris Hedges a religionist,
which I'm not sure we can do. Would it be appropriate to consider Hedges a religionist?
perfect stranger:
Yes, that maybe, just maybe be the case in early stages of forming new religion(s). In case of Christianity old rulers from
Rome were trying to save own head/throne and the S.P.Q.R. imperia by adopting new religion.
You use examples of Gandhi and MLK which is highly questionable both were fighters for independence and the second, civil rights.
In a word: not members of establishment just as I said there were (probably) seeing the religion as spiritual force not tool of
enslavement.
In particular, there seems to be an extremely popular variant of the above where the starting proposition "God makes moral
people rich" is improperly converted to "Rich people are more moral" which is then readily negated to "Poor people are immoral"
and then expanded to "Poor people are immoral, thus they DESERVE to suffer for it". It's essentially the theological equivalent
of dividing by zero
DownSouth:
Rex,
I agree.
Poll after poll after poll has shown that a majority of Americans, and a rather significant majority, reject the values, attitudes,
beliefs and opinions proselytized by the stealth religion we call "neoclassical economics."
That said, the ranks of the neoliberals are not small. They constitute what Jonathan Schell calls a "mass minority." I
suspect the neoliberals have about the same level of popular support that the Nazis did at the time of their takeover of Germany
in 1932, or the Bolsheviks had in Russia at the time of their takeover in 1917, which is about 20 or 25% of the total population.
The ranks of the neoliberals are made to appear far greater than they really are because they have all but exclusive access
to the nation's megaphone. The Tea Party can muster a handful of people to disrupt a town hall meeting and it gets coast to coast,
primetime coverage. But let a million people protest against bank bailouts, and it is ignored. Thus, by manipulation of the media,
the mass minority is made to appear to be much larger than it really is.
The politicians love this, because as they carry water for their pet corporations, they can point to the Tea Partiers and say:
"See what a huge upwelling of popular support I am responding to."
JTFaraday:
Well, if that's true, then the unemployed are employable but the mass mediated mentality would like them to believe they
are literally and inherently unemployable so that they underestimate and under-sell themselves.
This is as much to the benefit of those who would like to pick up "damaged goods" on the cheap as those who promote the unemployment
problem as one that inheres in prospective employees rather than one that is a byproduct of a bad job market lest someone be tempted
to think we should address it politically.
That's where I see this blame the unemployed finger pointing really getting traction these days.
attempter:
I apologize for the fact that I only read the first few paragraphs of this before quitting in disgust.
I just can no longer abide the notion that "labor" can ever be seen by human beings as a "cost" at all. We really need to refuse
to even tolerate that way of phrasing things. Workers create all wealth. Parasites have no right to exist. These are facts, and
we should refuse to let argument range beyond them.
The only purpose of civilization is to provide a better way of living and for all people. This includes the right and full
opportunity to work and manage for oneself and/or as a cooperative group. If civilization doesn't do that, we're better off without
it.
psychohistorian:
I am one of those long term unemployed.
I suppose my biggest employment claim would be as some sort of IT techie, with numerous supply chain systems and component
design, development, implementation, interfaces with other systems and ongoing support. CCNP certification and a history of techiedom
going back to WEYCOS.
I have a patent (6,209,954) in my name and 12+ years of beating my head against the wall in an industry that buys compliance
with the "there is no problem here, move on now" approach.
Hell, I was a junior woodchuck program administrator back in the early 70's working for the Office of the Governor of the state
of Washington on CETA PSE or Public Service Employment. The office of the Governor ran the PSE program for 32 of the 39 counties
in the state that were not big enough to run their own. I helped organize the project approval process in all those counties to
hire folk at ( if memory serves me max of $833/mo.) to fix and expand parks and provide social and other government services as
defined projects with end dates. If we didn't have the anti-public congress and other government leadership we have this could
be a current component in a rational labor policy but I digress.
I have experience in the construction trades mostly as carpenter but some electrical, plumbing, HVAC, etc. also.
So, of course there is some sort of character flaw that is keeping me and all those others from employment ..right. I may have
more of an excuse than others, have paid into SS for 45 years but still would work if it was available ..taking work away from
other who may need it more .why set up a society where we have to compete as such for mere existence???????
One more face to this rant. We need government by the people and for the people which we do not have now. Good, public focused,
not corporate focused government is bigger than any entities that exist under its jurisdiction and is kept updated by required
public participation in elections and potentially other things like military, peace corps, etc. in exchange for advanced education.
I say this as someone who has worked at various levels in both the public and private sectors there are ignorant and misguided
folks everywhere. At least with ongoing active participation there is a chance that government would, once constructed, be able
to evolve as needed within public focus .IMO.
Ishmael:
Some people would say I have been unemployed for 10 years. In 2000 after losing the last of my four CFO gigs for public companies
I found it necessary to start consulting. This has lead to two of my three biggest winning years. I am usually consulting on cutting
edge area of my profession and many times have large staffs reporting to me that I bring on board to get jobs done. For several
years I subcontacted to a large international consulting firm to clean up projects which went wrong. Let me give some insight
here.
First, most good positions have gate keepers who are professional recruiters. It is near impossible to get
by them and if you are unemployed they will hardly talk to you. One time talking to a recruiter at Korn Fery I was interviewing
for a job I have done several times in an industry I have worked in several times. She made a statement that I had never worked
at a well known company. I just about fell out of my chair laughing. At one time I was a senior level executive for the largest
consulting firm in the world and lived on three continents and worked with companies on six. In addition, I had held senior
positions for 2 fortune 500 firms and was the CFO for a company with $4.5 billion in revenue. I am well known at several PE
firms and the founder of one of the largest mentioned in a meeting that one of his great mistakes was not investing in a very
successful LBO (return of in excess of 20 multiple to investors in 18 months) I was the CFO for. In a word most recruiters
are incompetent.
Second, most CEO's any more are just insecure politicians. One time during an interview I had a CEO asked
me to talk about some accomplishments. I was not paying to much attention as I rattled off accomplishments and the CEO went
nuclear and started yelling at me that he did not know where I thought I was going with this job but the only position above
the CFO job was his and he was not going anywhere. I assured him I was only interested in the CFO position and not his, but
I knew the job was over. Twice feed back that I got from recruiters which they took at criticism was the "client said I seemed
very assured of myself."
Third, government, banking, business and the top MBA schools are based upon lying to move forward. I remember
a top human resource executive telling me right before Enron, MCI and Sarbanes Oxley that I needed to learn to be more flexible.
My response was that flexibility would get me an orange jump suit. Don't get me wrong, I have a wide grey zone, but it use
to be in business the looked for people who could identify problems early and resolve them. Now days I see far more of a demand
for people who can come up with PR spins to hide them. An attorney/treasurer consultant who partnered with me on a number of
consulting jobs told me some one called me "not very charming." He said he asked what that meant, and the person who said that
said, "Ish walks into a meeting and within 10 minutes he is asking about the 10,000 pound guerilla sitting in the room that
no one wants to talk about." CEO do not want any challenges in their organization.
Fourth, three above has lead to the hiring of very young and inexperienced people at senior levels. These
people are insecure and do not want more senior and experienced people above them and than has resulted in people older than
45 not finding positions.
Fifth, people are considered expendable and are fired for the lamest reasons anymore. A partner at one of
the larger and more prestigious recruiting firms one time told me, "If you have a good consulting business, just stick
with it. Our average placement does not last 18 months any more." Another well known recruiter in S. Cal. one time
commented to me, "Your average consulting gig runs longer than our average placement."
With all of that said, I have a hard time understanding such statements as "@attempter "Workers create all wealth. Parasites
have no right to exist." What does that mean? Every worker creates wealth. There is no difference in people. Sounds like communism
to me. I make a good living and my net worth has grown working for myself. I have never had a consulting gig terminated by the
client but I have terminated several. Usually, I am brought in to fix what several other people have failed at. I deliver basically
intellectual properties to companies. Does that mean I am not a worker. I do not usually lift anything heavy or move equipment
but I tell people what and where to do it so does that make me a parasite.
Those people who think everyone is equal and everyone deserves equal pay are fools or lazy. My rate is high, but what usually
starts as short term projects usually run 6 months or more because companies find I can do so much more than what most of their
staff can do and I am not a threat.
I would again like to have a senior challenging role at a decent size company but due to the reasons above will probably never
get one. However, you can never tell. I am currently consulting for a midsize very profitable company (grew 400% last year) where
I am twice the age of most people there, but everyone speaks to me with respect so you can never tell.
Lidia:
Ishmael, you're quite right. When I showed my Italian husband's resume to try and "network" in the US, my IT friends assumed
he was lying about his skills and work history.
Contemporaneously, in Italy it is impossible to get a job because of incentives to hire "youth". Age discrimination is
not illegal, so it's quite common to see ads that ask for a programmer under 30 with 5 years of experience in COBOL (the purple
squirrel).
Hosswire
Some good points about the foolishness of recruiters, but a great deal of that foolishness is forced by the clients themselves.
I used to be a recruiter myself, including at Korn Ferry in Southern California. I described the recruiting industry as "yet more
proof that God hates poor people" because my job was to ignore resumes from people seeking jobs and instead "source" aka "poach"
people who already had good jobs by dangling a higher salary in front of them. I didn't do it because I disparaged the unemployed,
or because I could not do the basic analysis to show that a candidate had analogous or transferrable skills to the opening.
I did it because the client, as Yves said, wanted people who were literally in the same job description already.
My theory is that the client wanted to have their ass covered in case the hire didn't work out, by being able to say that they
looked perfect "on paper." The lesson I learned for myself and my friends looking for jobs was simple, if morally dubious.
Basically, that if prospective employers are going to judge you based on a single piece of paper take full advantage of the fact
that you get to write that piece of paper yourself.
Ishmael:
Hosswire - I agree with your comment. There are poor recruiters like the one I sited but in general it is the clients fault.
Fear of failure. All hires have at least a 50% chance of going sideways on you. Most companies do not even have the ability to
look at a resume nor to interview. I did not mean to same nasty things about recruiters, and I even do it sometimes but mine.
I look at failure in a different light than most companies. You need to be continually experimenting and changing to survive
as a company and there will be some failures. The goal is to control the cost of failures while looking for the big pay off on
a winner.
Mannwich:
As a former recruiter and HR "professional" (I use that term very loosely for obvious reasons), I can honestly say that you
nailed it. Most big companies looking for mid to high level white collar "talent" will almost always take the perceived
safest route by hiring those who look the best ON PAPER and in a suit and lack any real interviewing skills to find the real stars.
What's almost comical is that companies almost always want to see the most linear resume possible because they want to see "job
stability" (e.g. a CYA document in case the person fails in that job) when in many cases nobody cares about the long range view
of the company anyway. My question was why should the candidate or employee care about the long range view if the employer clearly
doesn't?
Ishmael:
Manwhich another on point comment. Sometimes either interviewing for a job or consulting with a CEO it starts getting to the
absurd. I see all the time the requirement for stability in a persons background. Hello, where have they been the last 15 years.
In addition, the higher up you go the more likely you will be terminated sometime and that is especially true if you are hired
from outside the orgnanization. Companies want loyalty from an employee but offer none in return.
The average tenure for a CFO anymore is something around 18 months. I have been a first party participant (more than once)
where I went through an endless recruiting process for a company (lasting more than 6 months) they final hire some one and that
person is with the company for 3 months and then resigns (of course we all know it is through mutual agreement).
Ishmael:
Birch:
The real problem has become and maybe this is what you are referring to is the "Crony Capitalism." We have lost control of
our financial situation. Basically, PE is not the gods of the universe that everyone thinks they are. However, every bankers
secret wet dream is to become a private equity guy. Accordingly, bankers make ridiculous loans to PE because if you say no to
them then you can not play in their sand box any more. Since the govt will not let the banks go bankrupt like they should then
this charade continues inslaving everyone.
This country as well as many others has a large percentage of its assets tied up in over priced deals that the bankers/governments
will not let collapse while the blood sucking vampires suck the life out of the assets.
On the other hand, govt is not the answer. Govt is too large and accomplishes too little.
kevin de bruxelles:
The harsh reality is that, at least in the first few rounds, companies kick to the curb their weakest links and perceived
slackers. Therefore when it comes time to hire again, they are loath to go sloppy seconds on what they perceive to be
some other company's rejects. They would much rather hire someone who survived the layoffs working in a similar position in a
similar company. Of course the hiring company is going to have to pay for this privilege. Although not totally reliable, the fact
that someone survived the layoffs provides a form social proof for their workplace abilities.
On the macro level, labor has been under attack for thirty years by off shoring and third world immigration. It is no surprise
that since the working classes have been severely undermined that the middle classes would start to feel some pressure. By mass
immigration and off-shoring are strongly supported by both parties. Only when the pain gets strong enough will enough people rebel
and these two policies will be overturned. We still have a few years to go before this happens.
davver:
Let's say I run a factory. I produce cars and it requires very skilled work. Skilled welding, skilled machinists. Now I introduce
some robotic welders and an assembly line system. The plants productivity improves and the jobs actually get easier. They require
less skill, in fact I've simplified each task to something any idiot can do. Would wages go up or down? Are the workers really
contributing to that increase in productivity or is it the machines and methods I created?
Lets say you think laying off or cutting the wages of my existing workers is wrong. What happens when a new entrant into the
business employs a smaller workforce and lower wages, which they can do using the same technology? The new workers don't feel
like they were cut down in any way, they are just happy to have a job. Before they couldn't get a job at the old plant because
they lacked the skill, but now they can work in the new plant because the work is genuinely easier. Won't I go out of business?
Escariot:
I am 54 and have a ton of peers who are former white collar workers and professionals (project managers, architects, lighting
designers, wholesalers and sales reps for industrial and construction materials and equipment) now out of work going on three
years. Now I say out of work, I mean out of our trained and experienced fields.
We now work two or three gigs (waiting tables, mowing lawns, doing free lance, working in tourism, truck driving, moving company
and fedex ups workers) and work HARD, for much much less than we did, and we are seeing the few jobs that are coming back on line
going to younger workers. It is just the reality. And for most of us the descent has not been graceful, so our credit is a wreck,
which also breeds a whole other level of issues as now it is common for the credit record to be a deal breaker for employment,
housing, etc.
Strangely I don't sense a lot of anger or bitterness as much as humility. And gratitude for ANY work that comes our way. Health
insurance? Retirement accounts? not so much.
Mickey Marzick:
Yves and I have disagreed on how extensive the postwar "pact" between management and labor was in this country. But if you
drew a line from say, Trenton-Patterson, NJ to Cincinatti, OH to Minneapolis, MN, north and east of it where blue collar manufacturing
in steel, rubber, auto, machinery, etc., predominated, this "pact" may have existed but ONLY because physical plant and
production were concentrated there and workers could STOP production.
Outside of these heavy industrial pockets, unions were not always viewed favorably. As one moved into the rural hinterlands
surrounding them there was jealously and/or outright hostility. Elsewhere, especially in the South "unions" were the exception
not the rule. The differences between NE Ohio before 1975 – line from Youngstown to Toledo – and the rest of the state exemplified
this pattern. Even today, the NE counties of Ohio are traditional Democratic strongholds with the rest of the state largely Republican.
And I suspect this pattern existed elsewhere. But it is changing too
In any case, the demonization of the unemployed is just one notch above the vicious demonization of the poor that has
always existed in this country. It's a constant reminder for those still working that you could be next – cast out into
the darkness – because you "failed" or worse yet, SINNED. This internalization of the "inner cop" reinforces the dominant ideology
in two ways. First, it makes any resistance by individuals still employed less likely. Second, it pits those still working against
those who aren't, both of which work against the formation of any significant class consciousness amongst working people. The
"oppressed" very often internalize the value system of the oppressor.
As a nation of immigrants ETHNICITY may have more explanatory power than CLASS. For increasingly, it would appear that
the dominant ethnic group – suburban, white, European Americans – have thrown their lot in with corporate America. Scared of the
prospect of downward social mobility and constantly reminded of URBAN America – the other America – this group is trapped with
nowhere to else to go.
It's the divide and conquer strategy employed by ruling elites in this country since its founding [Federalist #10] with the
Know Nothings, blaming the Irish [NINA - no Irish need apply] and playing off each successive wave of immigrants against
the next. Only when the forces of production became concentrated in the urban industrial enclaves of the North was this
strategy less effective. And even then internal immigration by Blacks to the North in search of employment blunted the formation
of class consciousness among white ethnic industrial workers.
Wherever the postwar "pact of domination" between unions and management held sway, once physical plant was relocated elsewhere
[SOUTH] and eventually offshored, unemployment began to trend upwards. First it was the "rustbelt" now it's a nationwide
phenomenon. Needless to say, the "pact" between labor and management has been consigned to the dustbin of history.
White, suburban America has hitched its wagon to that of the corporate horse. Demonization of the unemployed coupled with demonization
of the poor only serve to terrorize this ethnic group into acquiescence. And as the workplace becomes a multicultural matrix this
ethnic group is constantly reminded of its perilous state. Until this increasingly atomized ethnic group breaks with corporate
America once and for all, it's unlikely that the most debilitating scourge of all working people – UNEMPLOYMENT – will be addressed.
Make no mistake about it, involuntary UNEMPLOYMENT/UNDEREMPLYEMT is a form of terrorism and its demonization is terrorism in
action. This "quiet violence" is psychological and the intimidation wrought by unemployment and/or the threat of it is intended
to dehumanize individuals subjected to it. Much like spousal abuse, the emotional and psychological effects are experienced way
before any physical violence. It's the inner cop that makes overt repression unnecessary. We terrorize ourselves into submission
without even knowing it because we accept it or come to tolerate it. So long as we accept "unemployment" as an inevitable consequence
of progress, as something unfortunate but inevitable, we will continue to travel down the road to serfdom where ARBEIT MACHT FREI!
FULL and GAINFUL EMPLOYMENT are the ultimate labor power.
Eric:
It's delicate since direct age discrimination is illegal, but when circumstances permit separating older workers they have
a very tough time getting back into the workforce in an era of high health care inflation. Older folks consume more health
care and if you are hiring from a huge surplus of available workers it isn't hard to steer around the more experienced. And nobody
gets younger, so when you don't get job A and go for job B 2 weeks later you, you're older still!
James:
Yves said- "This overly narrow hiring spec then leads to absurd, widespread complaint that companies can't find people
with the right skills"
In the IT job markets such postings are often called purple squirrels. The HR departments require the applicant to be expert
in a dozen programming languages. This is an excuse to hire a foreigner on a temp h1-b or other visa.
Most people aren't aware that this model dominates the sciences. Politicians scream we have a shortage of scientists, yet it
seems we only have a shortage of cheap easily exploitable labor. The economist recently pointed out the glut of scientists that
currently exists in the USA.
This understates the problem. The majority of PhD recipients wander through years of postdocs only to end up eventually changing
fields. My observation is that the top ten schools in biochem/chemistry/physics/ biology produce enough scientists to satisfy
the national demand.
The exemption from h1-b visa caps for academic institutions exacerbates the problem, providing academics with almost unlimited
access to labor.
The pharmaceutical sector has been decimated over the last ten years with tens of thousands of scientists/ factory workers
looking for re-training in a dwindling pool of jobs (most of which will deem you overqualified.)
I wonder how the demonization of the unemployed can be so strong even in the face of close to 10% unemployment/20% underemployment.
It's easy and tempting to demonize an abstract young buck or Cadillac-driving welfare queen, but when a family member
or a close friend loses a job, or your kids are stuck at your place because they can't find one, shouldn't that alter your perceptions?
Of course the tendency will be to blame it all on the government, but there has to be a limit to that in hard-hit places like
Ohio, Colorado, or Arizona. And yet, the dynamics aren't changing or even getting worse. Maybe Wisconsin marks a turning point,
I certainly hope it does
damien:
It's more than just stupid recruiting, this stigma. Having got out when the getting was good, years ago, I know
that any corporate functionary would be insane to hire me now. Socialization wears off, the deformation process reverses, and
the ritual and shibboleths become a joke. Even before I bailed I became a huge pain in the ass as economic exigency receded, every
bosses nightmare. I suffered fools less gladly and did the right thing out of sheer anarchic malice.
You really can't maintain corporate culture without existential fear – not just, "Uh oh, I'm gonna get fired,"
fear, but a visceral feeling that you do not exist without a job. In properly indoctrinated workers that feeling is divorced
from economic necessity. So anyone who's survived outside a while is bound to be suspect. That's a sign of economic security,
and security of any sort undermines social control.
youniquelikeme:
You hit the proverbial nail with that reply. (Although, sorry, doing the right thing should not be done out of malice) The real fit has to be in the corporate yes-man culture (malleable ass kisser) to be suited for any executive position
and beyond that it is the willingness to be manipulated and drained to be able to keep a job in lower echelon.
This is the new age of evolution in the work place. The class wars will make it more of an eventual revolution, but it is coming.
The unemployment rate (the actual one, not the Government one) globalization and off shore hiring are not sustainable for much
longer.
Something has to give, but it is more likely to snap then to come easily. People who are made to be repressed and down and
out eventually find the courage to fight back and by then, it is usually not with words.
down and out in Slicon Valley:
This is the response I got from a recruiter:
"I'm going to be overly honest with you. My firm doesn't allow me to submit any candidate who hasn't worked in 6-12
months or more. Recruiting brokers are probably all similar in that way . You are going to have to go through a connection/relationship
you have with a colleague, co-worker, past manager or friend to get your next job .that's my advice for you. Best of luck "
I'm 56 years old with MSEE. Gained 20+ years of experience at the best of the best (TRW, Nortel, Microsoft), have been issued
a patent. Where do I sign up to gain skills required to find a job now?
Litton Graft :
"Best of the Best?" I know you're down now, but looking back at these Gov'mint contractors you've enjoyed the best socialism
money can by.
Nortel/TRW bills/(ed) the Guvmint at 2x, 3x your salary, you can ride this for decades. At the same time the
Inc is attached to the Guvmint ATM localities/counties are giving them a red carpet of total freedom from taxation. Double subsidies.
I've worked many years at the big boy bandits, and there is no delusion in my mind that almost anyone, can do what I do and
get paid 100K+. I've never understood the mindset of some folks who work in the Wermacht Inc: "Well, someone has to do this work"
or worse "What we do, no one else can do" The reason no one else "can do it" is that they are not allowed to. So, we steal from
the poor to build fighter jets, write code or network an agency.
Hosswire:
I used to work as a recruiter and can tell you that I only parroted the things my clients told me. I wanted to
get you hired, because I was lazy and didn't want to have to talk to someone else next.
So what do you do? To place you that recruiter needs to see on a piece of paper that you are currently working? Maybe get an
email or phone call from someone who will vouch for your employment history. That should not be that hard to make happen.
Francois T :
The "bizarre way that companies now spec jobs" is essentially a coded way for mediocre managers to say without saying so explicitly
that "we can afford to be extremely picky, and by God, we shall do so no matter what, because we can!"
Of course, when comes the time to hire back because, oh disaster! business is picking up again, (I'm barely caricaturing here;
some managers become despondent when they realize that workers regain a bit of the higher ground; loss of power does that to lesser
beings) the same idiots who designed those "overly narrow hiring spec then leads to absurd, widespread complaint that companies
can't find people with the right skills" are thrown into a tailspin of despair and misery. Instead of figuring out something as
simple as "if demand is better, so will our business", they can't see anything else than the (eeeek!) cost of hiring workers.
Unable to break their mental corset of penny-pincher, they fail to realize that lack of qualified workers will prevent them to
execute well to begin with.
And guess what: qualified workers cost money, qualified workers urgently needed cost much more.
This managerial attitude must be another factor that explain why entrepreneurship and the formation of small businesses is
on the decline in the US (contrary to the confabulations of the US officialdumb and the chattering class) while rising in Europe
and India/China.
Kit:
If you are 55-60, worked as a professional (i.e., engineering say) and are now unemployed you are dead meat. Sorry to be blunt
but thats the way it is in the US today. Let me repeat that : Dead Meat.
I was terminated at age 59, found absolutely NOTHING even though my qualifications were outstanding. Fortunately, my company
had an old style pension plan which I was able to qualify for (at age 62 without reduced benefits). So for the next 2+ years my
wife and I survived on unemployment insurance, severance, accumulated vacation pay and odd jobs. Not nice – actually, a living
hell.
At age 62, I applied for my pension, early social security, sold our old house (at a good profit) just before the RE crash,
moved back to our home state. Then my wife qualified for social security also. Our total income is now well above the US median.
Today, someone looking at us would think we were the typical corporate retiree. We surely don't let on any differently but
the experience (to get to this point) almost killed us.
I sympathize very strongly with the millions caught in this unemployment death spiral. I wish I had an answer but I just don't.
We were very lucky to survive intact.
Ming:
Thank you Yves for your excellent post, and for bringing to light this crucial issue.
Thank you to all the bloggers, who add to the richness of the this discussion.
I wonder if you could comment on this Yves, and correct me if I am wrong I believe that the power of labor was sapped by the
massive available supply of global labor. The favorable economic policies enacted by China (both official and unofficial), and
trade negotiations between the US government and the Chinese government were critical to creating the massive supply of labor.
Thank you. No rush of course.
Nexus:
There are some odd comments and notions here that are used to support dogma and positions of prejudice. The world can be viewed
in a number of ways. Firstly from a highly individualised and personal perspective – that is what has happened to me and here
are my experiences. Or alternatively the world can be viewed from a broader societal perspective.
In the context of labour there has always been an unequal confrontation between those that control capital and those that offer
their labour, contrary to some of the views exposed here – Marx was a first and foremost a political economist. The political
economist seeks to understand the interplay of production, supply, the state and institutions like the media. Modern day economics
branched off from political economy and has little value in explaining the real world as the complexity of the world has been
reduced to a simplistic rationalistic model of human behaviour underpinned by other equally simplistic notions of 'supply and
demand', which are in turn represented by mathematical models, which in themselves are complex but merely represent what is a
simplistic view of the way the world operates. This dogmatic thinking has avoided the need to create an underpinning epistemology.
This in turn underpins the notion of free choice and individualism which in itself is an illusion as it ignores the operation
of the modern state and the exercise of power and influence within society.
It was stated in one of the comments that the use of capital (machines, robotics, CAD design, etc.) de-skills. This is hardly
the case as skills rise for those that remain and support highly automated/continuous production factories. This is symptomatic
of the owners of capital wanting to extract the maximum value for labour and this is done via the substitution of labour for capital
making the labour that remains to run factories highly productive thus eliminating low skill jobs that have been picked up via
services (people move into non productive low skilled occupations warehousing and retail distribution, fast food outlets,
etc). Of course the worker does not realise the additional value of his or her labour as this is expropriated for the shareholders
(including management as shareholders).
The issue of the US is that since the end of WW2 it is not the industrialists that have called the shots and made investments
it is the financial calculus of the investment banker (Finance Capital). Other comments have tried to ignore the existence of
the elites in society – I would suggest that you read C.W.Mills – The Power Elites as an analysis of how power is exercised
in the US – it is not through the will of the people.
For Finance capital investments are not made on the basis of value add, or contribution through product innovation and the
exchange of goods but on basis of the lowest cost inputs. Consequently, the 'elites' that make investment decisions, as
they control all forms of capital seek to gain access to the cheapest cost inputs. The reality is that the US worker (a
pool of 150m) is now part of a global labour pool of a couple of billion that now includes India and China. This means that the
elites, US transnational corporations for instance, can access both cheaper labour pools, relocate capital and avoid worker protection
(health and safety is not a concern). The strategies of moving factories via off-shoring (over 40,000 US factories closed or relocated)
and out-sourcing/in-sourcing labour is also a representations of this.
The consequence for the US is that the need for domestic labour has diminished and been substituted by cheap labour to
extract the arbitrage between US labour rates and those of Chinese and Indians. Ironically, in this context capital has
become too successful as the mode of consumption in the US shifted from workers that were notionally the people that created the
goods, earned wages and then purchased the goods they created to a new model where the worker was substituted by the consumer
underpinned by cheap debt and low cost imports – it is illustrative to note that real wages have not increased in the US since
the early 1970's while at the same time debt has steadily increased to underpin the illusion of wealth – the 'borrow today and
pay tomorrow' mode of capitalist operation. This model of operation is now broken. The labour force is now being demonized as
there is a now surplus of labour and a need to drive down labour rates through changes in legislation and austerity programs to
meet those of the emerging Chinese and Indian middle class so workers rights need to be broken. Once this is done a process of
in-source may take place as US labour costs will be on par with overseas labour pools.
It is ironic that during the Regan administration a number of strategic thinkers saw the threat from emerging economies and
the danger of Finance Capital and created 'Project Socrates' that would have sought to re-orientate the US economy from one that
was based on the rationale of Finance Capital to one that focused in productive innovation which entailed an alignment of capital
investment, research and training to product innovative goods. Of course this was ignored and the rest is history. The race to
the lowest input cost is ultimately self defeating as it is clear that the economy de-industrialises through labour and capital
changes and living standards collapse. The elites – bankers, US transnational corporations, media, industrial military complex
and the politicians don't care as they make money either way and this way you get other people overseas to work cheap for you.
S P:
Neoliberal orthodoxy treats unemployment as well as wage supression as a necessary means to fight "inflation." If there was
too much power in the hands of organized labor, inflationary pressures would spiral out of control as supply of goods cannot keep
up with demand.
It also treats the printing press as a necessary means to fight "deflation."
So our present scenario: widespread unemployment along with QE to infinity, food stamps for all, is exactly what you'd expect.
The problem with this orthodoxy is that it assumes unlimited growth on a planet with finite resources, particularly oil
and energy. Growth is not going to solve unemployment or wages, because we are bumping up against limits to growth.
There are only two solutions. One is tax the rich and capital gains, slow growth, and reinvest the surplus into jobs/skills
programs, mostly to maintain existing infrastructure or build new energy infrastructure. Even liberals like Krugman skirt around
this, because they aren't willing to accept that we have the reached the end of growth and we need radical redistribution
measures.
The other solution is genuine classical liberalism / libertarianism, along the lines of Austrian thought. Return to sound money,
and let the deflation naturally take care of the imbalances. Yes, it would be wrenching, but it would likely be wrenching for
everybody, making it fair in a universal sense.
Neither of these options is palatable to the elite classes, the financiers of Wall Street, or the leeches and bureaucrats of
D.C.
So this whole experiment called America will fail.
"... Controlling inflation solely by focusing on workers wages since 1980 but allowing monopoly power and economic rents to skyrocket
since 1980 is the main reason for the extreme inequality that has developed ..."
"... Prima facie evidence of distorted labor market where buyers of labor have control. At the very least, the next democratic President
should use their weekly address to point out the metrics relating economic gains, net wealth gains, productivity gains, to wage gains.
The Presudent should remind employers to fairly share the gains. Once the metrics indicate distortion in the labor markets the President
will then introduce corrective legislation using the public communications weight behind this free market notion of a fair labor market,
using these metrics. Let us try this bully pulpit, public communications effort with the idea of building public momentum for correctives,
and maybe we will return to the 1960s future when gains were more proportionally shared. Perhaps we wont need much legislation at all,
afterall we had one generation comport with fairness, you know, rational expectations. ..."
"... if demand cannot be kept up by wages, then the only option is loans and we have seen in 2008 the catastrophic results of that
..."
non accelerating inflation rate of unemployment is a better term
there is nothing "natural" about that rate
there are many factors that play a role, but the most important are
1. monopoly power is the most important, without monopoly power, in a perfectly competitive market, excessive inflation is
not possible
2. factors that affect bargaining power OF workers
Controlling inflation solely by focusing on workers wages since 1980 but allowing monopoly power and economic rents to
skyrocket since 1980 is the main reason for the extreme inequality that has developed
Prima facie evidence of distorted labor market where buyers of labor have control.
At the very least, the next democratic President should use their weekly address to point out the metrics relating economic
gains, net wealth gains, productivity gains, to wage gains. The Presudent should remind employers to fairly share the gains.
Once the metrics indicate distortion in the labor markets the President will then introduce corrective legislation using the
public communications weight behind this free market notion of a fair labor market, using these metrics.
Let us try this bully pulpit, public communications effort with the idea of building public momentum for correctives, and
maybe we will return to the 1960s future when gains were more proportionally shared. Perhaps we wont need much legislation at
all, afterall we had one generation comport with fairness, you know, rational expectations.
We can expect to do that again, especially as all new economists will be trained on the why and on how to accomplish this metric
of shared gains. One can only hope.
if we don't allow median wages to go up to match production/productivity
and if economic rents continue to go up disproportionally then we need to do a redistribution, ideally by taxes, to get the
median wage to keep pace with production/productivity
otherwise demand for products will eventually falter, making us all poorer for it
if demand cannot be kept up by wages, then the only option is loans and we have seen in 2008 the catastrophic results of
that
Should
We Reject the Natural Rate Hypothesis?, by Olivier Blanchard, PIIE : Fifty years ago,
Milton Friedman articulated the natural rate hypothesis. It was composed of two
sub-hypotheses: First, the natural rate of unemployment is independent of monetary policy.
Second, there is no long-run tradeoff between the deviation of unemployment from the natural
rate and inflation. Both propositions have been challenged. Blanchard reviews the arguments
and the macro and micro evidence against each and concludes that, in each case, the evidence
is suggestive but not conclusive. Policymakers should keep the natural rate hypothesis as
their null hypothesis but keep an open mind and put some weight on the alternatives. [
paper ]
"there is a strong case, although not an overwhelming case, to allow U.S. output to exceed
potential for some time, so as to reintegrate some of the workers who left the labor force
during the last ten years."
Blanchard calls for exploring the unknown regions
of lower and lower unemployment
Lower UE rates
Instead of accelerating output price inflation
Or even wage inflation
Given possible productivity pick ups
We may discover
We get a return to higher and higher participation
Not an unhappy result after all
The parting of the ways with the likes of Blanchard and krugman might come
When at long last wage rates do begin to rise faster then
Say
labor productivity plus three percent
But if the acceleration of the expected rate of change
of the rate of output price change
accelerates slowly
We'll have plenty of policy means and time to moderate the expansion of demand
Given the political will
What is completely missed by looking at the impact of a slump on long run output capacity
Is the actual lost output out of existing capacity
And the misery this inflicts now
for many too many
Ten years of sub possible output
Contain How many weeks upon weeks
of reduced Welfare for too many souls ?
Blanchards uses the definition of potential output
That suggests over production has to be off set by under production
I.e. Potential output is not technical maximum output by any means
PO
Is more like a rate of output and consequent rate of existing factor utilization
That does not unduly
stress
the various institutional arrangements and practices
Or overly tax
the stability of existing social norms
Considered necessary
to sustaining the good of society
thru
It's gradual development over time
There is another set of conflicting visions
One of which
That any class pov might hatch
A vision
Perhaps too Faustian for most souls of that class
That is restless
to push faster
To Venture more
Face uncertainty with boldness even audacity
"... Seventy per cent of people born into the bottom quintile of income distribution never make it into the middle class, and fewer than ten per cent get into the top quintile. Forty per cent are still poor as adults. ..."
Upward mobility in the United States is largely an illusion ,
and the living standard for the middle class has hardly moved in decades; it has declined, if
anything, relative to progress in the 1960's.
Seventy per cent of people born into the bottom quintile of income distribution never
make it into the middle class, and fewer than ten per cent get into the top quintile. Forty
per cent are still poor as adults.
You are correct, though, that economics is immensely complicated and turns on
almost-infinite variables. People who don't like the way things are turning out often just
re-define the metrics, or pick a different set.
"... "China is the world leader in payments made by mobile devices", ..."
"... Financial Times ..."
"... Financial Times ..."
"... Financial Times ..."
"... 80% recognize that the Congress is dysfunctional and 86% believe that Washington is dishonest. Never has an empire of such limitless power crumbled and declined with so few accomplishments. ..."
Lumpen Capitalism refers to an economic system in which the financial and military sector
exploits the state treasury and productive economy for the 1% of the population.)
Introduction
US journalists and commentators, politicians and Sinologists spend considerable time and space
speculating on the personality of China's President Xi Jinping and his appointments to the leading
bodies of the Chinese government, as if these were the most important aspects of the entire 19th
National Congress of the Communist Party of China (October 18-24, 2017) .
(The 19th National Congress was attended by 2,280 delegates representing 89 million members.)
Mired down in gossip, idle speculation and petty denigration of its leaders, the Western press
has once again failed to take account of the world-historical changes which are currently taking
place in China and throughout the world.
World historical changes, as articulated by Chinese President Xi Jinping, are present in the vision,
strategy and program of the Congress. These are based on a rigorous survey of China's past, present
and future accomplishments.
The serious purpose, projections and the presence of China's President stand in stark contrast
to the chaos, rabble-rousing demagogy and slanders characterizing the multi-billion dollar US Presidential
campaign and its shameful aftermath.
The clarity and coherence of a deep strategic thinker like President Xi Jinping contrasts to the
improvised, contradictory and incoherent utterances from the US President and Congress. This is not
a matter of mere style but of substantive content.
We will proceed in the essay by contrasting the context, content and direction of the two political
systems.
China: Strategic Thinking and Positive Outcomes
China, first and foremost, has established well-defined strategic guidelines that emphasize macro-socio-economic
and military priorities over the next five, ten and twenty years.
China is committed to reducing pollution in all of its manifestations via the transformation of
the economy from heavy industry to a high-tech service economy, moving from quantitative to qualitative
indicators.
Secondly, China will increase the relative importance of the domestic market and reduce its dependence
on exports. China will increase investments in health, education, public services, pensions and family
allowances.
Thirdly, China plans to invest heavily in ten economic priority sectors. These include computerized
machinery, robotics, energy saving vehicles, medical devices, aerospace technology, and maritime
and rail transport. It targets three billion (US) dollars to upgrade technology in key industries,
including electrical vehicles, energy saving technology, numerical control (digitalization) and several
other areas. China plans to increase investment in research and development from .95% to 2% of GDP.
Moreover, China has already taken steps to launch the 'petro-Yuan', and end US global financial
dominance.
China has emerged as the world's leader in advancing global infrastructure networks with its One
Belt One Road (Silk Road) across Eurasia. Chinese-built ports, airports and railroads already connect
twenty Chinese cities to Central Asia, West Asia, South-East Asia, Africa and Europe. China has established
a multi-lateral Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (with over 60 member nations) contributing 100
billion dollars for initial financing.
China has combined its revolution in data collection and analysis with central planning to conquer
corruption and improve the efficiency in credit allocation. Beijing's digital economy is now at the
center of the global digital economy. According to one expert, "China is the world leader in
payments made by mobile devices", (11 times the US). One in three of the world's start-ups,
valued at more than $1 billion, take place in China ( FT 10/28/17, p. 7). Digital technology
has been harnessed to state-owned banks in order to evaluate credit risks and sharply reduce bad
debt. This will ensure that financing is creating a new dynamic flexible model combining rational
planning with entrepreneurial vigor (ibid).
As a result, the US/EU-controlled World Bank has lost its centrality in global financing. China
is already Germany's largest trading partner and is on its way to becoming Russia's leading trade
partner and sanctions-busting ally.
China has widened and expanded its trade missions throughout the globe, replacing the role of
the US in Iran, Venezuela and Russia and wherever Washington has imposed belligerent sanctions.
While China has modernized its military defense programs and increased military spending, almost
all of the focus is on 'home defense' and protection of maritime trade routes. China has not engaged
in a single war in decades.
China's system of central planning allows the government to allocate resources to the productive
economy and to its high priority sectors. Under President Xi Jinping, China has created an investigation
and judicial system leading to the arrest and prosecution of over a million corrupt officials in
the public and private sector. High status is no protection from the government's anti-corruption
campaign: Over 150 Central Committee members and billionaire plutocrats have fallen. Equally important,
China's central control over capital flows (outward and inward) allows for the allocation of financial
resources to high tech productive sectors while limiting the flight of capital or its diversion into
the speculative economy.
As a result, China's GNP has been growing between 6.5% – 6.9% a year – four times the rate of
the EU and three times the US.
As far as demand is concerned, China is the world's biggest market and growing. Income is growing
– especially for wage and salaried workers. President Xi Jinping has identified social inequalities
as a major area to rectify over the next five years.
The US: Chaos, Retreat and Reaction
In contrast, the United States President and Congress have not fashioned a strategic vision for
the country, least of all one linked to concrete proposals and socio-economic priorities, which might
benefit the citizenry.
The US has 240,000 active and reserve armed forces stationed in 172 countries. China has less
than 5,000 in one country – Djibouti. The US stations 40,000 troops in Japan, 23,000 in South Korea,
36,000 in Germany, 8,000 in the UK and over 1,000 in Turkey. What China has is an equivalent number
of highly skilled civilian personnel engaged in productive activity around the world. China's overseas
missions and its experts have worked to benefit both global and Chinese economic growth.
The United States' open-ended, multiple military conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya,
Yemen, Niger, Somalia, Jordan and elsewhere have absorbed and diverted hundreds of billions of dollars
away from productive investments in the domestic economy. In only a few cases, military spending
has built useful roads and infrastructure, which could be counted a 'dual use', but overwhelmingly
US military activities abroad have been brutally destructive, as shown by the deliberate dismemberment
of Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya.
The US lacks the coherence of China's policy making and strategic leadership. While chaos has
been inherent in the politics of the US 'free market' financial system, it is especially widespread
and dangerous during the Trump regime.
Congressional Democrats and Republicans, united and divided, actively confront President Trump
on every issue no matter how important or petty. Trump improvises and alters his policies by the
hour or, at most, by the day. The US possesses a party system where one party officially rules in
the Administration with two militarist big business wings.
US has been spending over 700 billion dollars a year to pursue seven wars and foment 'regime changes'
or coups d'état on four continents and eight regions over the past two decades. This has only caused
disinvestment in the domestic economy with deterioration of critical infrastructure, loss of markets,
widespread socioeconomic decline and a reduction of spending on research and development for goods
and services.
The top 500 US corporations invest overseas, mainly to take advantage of low tax region and sources
of cheap labor, while shunning American workers and avoiding US taxes. At the same time, these corporations
share US technology and markets with the Chinese.
Today, US capitalism is largely directed by and for financial institutions, which absorb and divert
capital from productive investments, generating an unbalanced crisis-prone economy. In contrast,
China determines the timing and location of investments as well as bank interest rates, targeting
priority investments, especially in advanced high-tech sectors.
Washington has spent billions on costly and unproductive military-centered infrastructure (military
bases, naval ports, air stations etc.) in order to buttress stagnant and corrupt allied regimes.
As a result, the US has nothing comparable to China's hundred-billion-dollar 'One Belt-One Road'
(Silk Road) infrastructure project linking continents and major regional markets and generating millions
of productive jobs.
The US has broken global linkages with dynamic growth centers. Washington resorts to self-defecating,
mindless chauvinistic rhetoric to impose trade policy, while China promotes global networks via joint
ventures. China incorporates international supply linkages by securing high tech in the West and
low cost labor in the East.
Big US industrial groups' earnings and rising stock in construction and aerospace are products
of their strong ties with China. Caterpillar, United Technologies 3M and US car companies reported
double-digit growth on sales to China.
In contrast, the Trump regime has allocated (and spent) billions in military procurement to threaten
wars against China's peripheral neighbors and interfere with its maritime commerce.
US Decline and Media Frenzy
The retreat and decline of US economic power has driven the mass media into a frenzy of idiotic
ad hominem assaults on China's political leader President Xi Jinping. Among the nose pickers in print,
the scribes of the Financial Times take the prize for mindless vitriol. Mercenaries and
holy men in Tibet are described as paragons of democracy and 'victims' of a flourishing modernizing
Chinese state lacking the 'western values' (sic) of floundering Anglo-American warmongers!
To denigrate China's system of national planning and its consequential efforts to link its high
tech economy with improving the standard of living for the population, the FT journalists
castigate President Xi Jinping for the following faults:
For not being as dedicated a Communist as Mao Zedong or Deng Xiaopeng For being too 'authoritarian'
(or too successful) in his campaign to root out corrupt officials. For setting serious long-term
goals while confronting and overcoming economic problems by addressing the 'dangerous' level of debt.
While China has broadened its cultural horizon, the Anglo-Saxon global elite increases possibility
of nuclear warfare. China's cultural and economic outreach throughout the world is dismissed by the
Financial Times as 'subversive soft power'. Police-state minds and media in the West see
China's outreach as a plot or conspiracy. Any serious writer, thinker or policymaker who has studied
and praised China's success is dismissed as a dupe or agent of the sly President Xi Jinping. Without
substance or reflection, the FT (10/27/17) warns its readers and police officials to be
vigilant and avoid being seduced by China's success stories!
China's growing leadership in automobile production is evident in its advance towards dominating
the market for electric vehicles. Every major US and EU auto company has ignored the warnings of
the Western media ideologues and rushed to form joint ventures with China.
China has an industrial policy. The US has a war policy. China plans to surpass the US and Germany
in artificial intelligence, robotics, semi-conductors and electric vehicles by 2025. And it will
-- because those are its carefully pronounced scientific and economic priorities.
Shamelessly and insanely, the US press pursues the expanding stories of raging Hollywood rapists
like the powerful movie mogul, Harvey Weinstein, and the hundreds of victims, while ignoring the
world historic news of China's rapid economic advances.
The US business elites are busy pushing their President and the US Congress to lower taxes for
the billionaire elite, while 100 million US citizens remain without health care and register decreased
life expectancy! Washington seems committed to in State-planned regression.
As US bombs fall on Yemen and the American taxpayers finance the giant Israeli concentration camp
once known as 'Palestine', while China builds systems of roads and rail linking the Himalayas and
Central Asia with Europe.
While Sherlock Holmes applies the science of observation and deduction, the US media and politicians
perfect the art of obfuscation and deception.
In China, scientists and innovators play a central role in producing and increasing goods and
services for the burgeoning middle and working class. In the US, the economic elite play the central
role in exacerbating inequalities, increasing profits by lowering taxes and transforming the American
worker into poorly-paid temp-labor – destined to die prematurely of preventable conditions.
While Chinese President Xi Jinping works in concert with the nation's best technocrats to subordinate
the military to civilian goals, President Trump and his Administration subordinate their economic
decisions to a military-industrial-financial-Israeli complex. Beijing invests in global networks
of scientists, researchers and scholars. The US 'opposition' Democrats and disgruntled Republicans
work with the giant corporate media (including the respectable Financial Times ) to fund
and fabricate conspiracies and plots under Trump's Presidential bed.
Conclusion
China fires and prosecutes corrupt officials while supporting innovators. Its economy grows through
investments, joint ventures and a great capacity to learn from experience and powerful data collection.
The US squanders its domestic resources in pursuing multiple wars, financial speculation and rampant
Wall Street corruption.
China investigates and punishes its corrupt business and public officials while corruption seems
to be the primary criteria for election or appointment to high office in the US. The US media worships
its tax-dodging billionaires and thinks it can mesmerize the public with a dazzling display of bluster,
incompetence and arrogance.
China directs its planned economy to address domestic priorities. It uses its financial resources
to pursue historic global infrastructure programs, which will enhance global partnerships in mutually
beneficial projects.
It is no wonder that China is seen as moving toward the future with great advances while the US
is seen as a chaotic frightening threat to world peace and its publicists as willing accomplices.
China is not without shortcomings in the spheres of political expression and civil rights. Failure
to rectify social inequalities and failure to stop the outflow of billions of dollars of illicit
wealth, and the unresolved problems with regime corruption will continue to generate class conflicts.
But the important point to note is the direction China has chosen to take and its capacity and
commitment to identify and correct the major problems it faces.
The US has abdicated its responsibilities. It is unwilling or unable to harness its banks to invest
in domestic production to expand the domestic market. It is completely unwilling to identify and
purge the manifestly incompetent and to incarcerate the grossly corrupt officials and politicians
of both parties and the elites.
Today overwhelming majorities of US citizens despise, distrust and reject the political elite.
Over 70% think that the inane factional political divisions are at their greatest level in over 50
years and have paralyzed the government.
80% recognize that the Congress is dysfunctional and 86% believe that Washington is dishonest.
Never has an empire of such limitless power crumbled and declined with so few accomplishments.
China is a rising economic empire, but it advances through its active engagement in the market
of ideas and not through futile wars against successful competitors and adversaries. As the US declines,
its publicists degenerate.
The media's ceaseless denigration of China's challenges and its accomplishments is a poor substitute
for analysis. The flawed political and policy making structures in the US and its incompetent free-market
political leaders lacking any strategic vision crumble in contrast to China's advances.
China is a neoliberal country which plays by the rules of neoliberalism. that means
tremendous level of corruption within Communist Party. So the levers remains in Washington hands.
I think the article is too optimistic. Washington definitely can put same sand into China
industrial wheels. Right now they simply concentrate on "regime change" in Russia as the weakest
link in Russo-Chinese alliance and leave China alone. China growing class of billionaires now
represent a potent fifth column within the country and can be played. Attempt to do this were
already evident in Hong Hong failed color revolution. Hong Cong remain is heir lines of US color
revolution specialist and intelligence agencies.
Notable quotes:
"... The 'China doomsters' with 'logs in their own eyes' have systematically distorted reality, fabricated whimsical tales and paint vision, which, in truth, reflect their own societies. ..."
"... As each false claim is refuted, the frogs alter their tunes: When predictions of imminent collapse fail to materialize, they add a year or even a decade to their crystal ball. When their warnings of negative national social, economic and structural trends instead move in a positive direction, their nimble fingers re-calibrate the scope and depth of the crisis, citing anecdotal 'revelations' from some village or town or taxi driver conversation. ..."
From their dismal swamps, US academic and financial journal editorialists, the
mass media and contemporary 'Asia experts', Western progressive and conservative politicians
croak in unison about China's environmental and impending collapse.
They have variably proclaimed (1) China's economy is in decline; (2) the debt is
overwhelming; a Chinese real estate bubble is ready to burst; (3) the country is rife with
corruption and poisoned with pollution; and (4) Chinese workers are staging paralyzing strikes
and protests amid growing repression -- the result of exploitation and sharp class inequality.
The financial frogs croak about China as an imminent military threat to the security of the US
and its Asian partners. Other frogs leap for that fly in the sky -- arguing that the Chinese
now threatens the entire universe!
The 'China doomsters' with 'logs in their own eyes' have systematically distorted reality,
fabricated whimsical tales and paint vision, which, in truth, reflect their own societies.
As each false claim is refuted, the frogs alter their tunes: When predictions of imminent
collapse fail to materialize, they add a year or even a decade to their crystal ball. When
their warnings of negative national social, economic and structural trends instead move in a
positive direction, their nimble fingers re-calibrate the scope and depth of the crisis, citing
anecdotal 'revelations' from some village or town or taxi driver conversation.
As long-predicted failures fail to materialize, the experts re-hash the data by questioning
the reliability of China's official statistics.
Worst of all, Western 'Asia' experts and scholars try 'role reversal': While US bases and
ships increasingly encircle China, the Chinese become the aggressors and the bellicose US
imperialists whine about their victim-hood.
Cutting through the swamp of these fabrications, this essay aims to outline an alternative
and more objective account of China's current socio-economic and political realty.
China: Fiction and Fact
We repeatedly read about China's 'cheap wage' economy and the brutal exploitation of its
slaving workers by billionaire oligarchs and corrupt political officials. In fact, the average
wage in China's manufacturing sector has tripled during this decade. China's labor force
receives wages which exceed those of Latin America countries, with one dubious exception.
Chinese manufacturing wages now approach those of the downwardly mobile countries in the EU.
Meanwhile, the neo-liberal regimes, under EU and US pressure, have halved wages in Greece, and
significantly reduced incomes in Brazil, Mexico and Portugal. In China, workers wages now
surpass Argentina, Colombia and Thailand. While not high by US-EU standards, China's 2015 wages
stood at $3.60 per hour -- improving the living standards of 1.4 billion workers. During the
time that China tripled its workers 'wages, the wages of Indian workers stagnate at $0.70 per
hour and South African wages fell from $4.30 to $3.60 per hour.
This spectacular increase in Chinese worker's wages are largely attributed to skyrocketing
productivity, resulting from steady improvements in worker health, education and technical
training, as well as sustained organized worker pressure and class struggle. President Xi
Jinping's successful campaign for remove and arrest of hundreds of thousands of corrupt and
exploitative officials and factory bosses has boosted worker power. Chinese workers are closing
the gap with the US minimum wage. At the current rate of growth, the gap, which had narrowed
from one tenth to one half the US wage in ten years, will disappear in the near future.
China is no longer merely a low-wage, unskilled, labor intensive, assembly plant and
export-oriented economy. Today twenty thousand technical schools graduate millions of skilled
workers. High tech factories are incorporating robotics on a massive scale to replace unskilled
workers. The service sector is increasing to meet the domestic consumer market. Faced with
growing US political and military hostility, China has diversified its export market, turning
from the US to Russia, the EU, Asia, Latin America and Africa.
Despite these impressive objective advances, the chorus of 'crooked croakers' continue to
churn out annual predictions of China's economic decline and decay. Their analyses are not
altered by China's 6.7% GNP growth in 2016; they jump on the 2017 forecast of 'decline' to 6.6%
as proof of its looming collapse! Not be dissuaded by reality, the chorus of 'Wall Street
croakers' wildly celebrate when the US announces a GNP increase from 1% to 1.5%!
While China has acknowledged its serious environmental problems, it is a leader in
committing billions of dollars (2% of GNP) to reduce greenhouse gases -- closing factories and
mines. Their efforts far exceed those of the US and EU.
China, like the rest of Asia, as well as the US, needs to vastly increase investments in
rebuilding its decaying or non-existent infrastructure. The Chinese government is alone among
nations in keeping up with and even exceeding its growing transportation needs -- spending $800
billion a year on high speed railroads, rail lines, sea- ports, airports subways and
bridges.
While the US has rejected multi-national trade and investment treaties with eleven Pacific
countries, China has promoted and financed global trade and investment treaties with more than
fifty Asia-Pacific (minus Japan and the US), as well as African and European states.
China's leadership under President Xi Jinping has launched an effective large-scale
anti-corruption campaign leading to the arrest or ouster of over 200,000 business and public
officials, including billionaires, and top politburo and Central Committee members. As a result
of this national campaign, purchases of luxury items have significantly declined. The practice
of using public funds for elaborate 12 course dinners and the ritual of gift giving and taking
are on the wane.
Meanwhile, despite the political campaigns to 'drain the swamp' and successful populist
referenda, nothing remotely resembling China's anticorruption campaign have taken root in the
US and the UK despite daily reports of swindles and fraud involving the hundred leading
investment banks in the Anglo-American world. China's anti- corruption campaign may have
succeeded in reducing inequalities. It clearly has earned the overwhelming support of the
Chinese workers and farmers.
Journalists and academics, who like to parrot the Anglo-American and NATO Generals, warn
that China's military program poses a direct threat to the security of the US, Asia and indeed
the rest of world.
Historical amnesia infects these most deep diving frogs. Forgotten is how the post WW2 US
invaded and destroyed Korea and Indo-China (Vietnam, Laos and Cambodia) killing over nine
million inhabitants, both civilian and defenders. The US invaded, colonized and neo-colonized
the Philippines at the turn of the 20th century, killing up to one million inhabitants. It
continues to build and expands its network of military bases encircling China, It recently
moved powerful, nuclear armed THADD missiles to the North Korean border, capable of attacking
Chinese and even Russian cities. The US is the worlds' largest arms exporter, surpassing the
collective production and sale of the next five leading merchants of death.
In contrast, China has not unilaterally attacked, invaded or occupied anyone in hundreds of
years. It does not place nuclear missiles on the US coast or borders. In fact, it does not have
a single overseas military base. Its own military bases, in the South China Sea, are
established to protect its vital maritime routes from pirates and the increasingly provocative
US naval armada. China's military budget, scheduled to increase by 7% in 2017, is still less
than one-fourth of the US budget.
For its part, the US promotes aggressive military alliances, points radar and satellite
guided missiles at China, Iran and Russia, and threatens to obliterate North Korea. China's
military program has been and continues to be defensive. Its increase is based on its response
to US provocation. China's foreign imperial thrust is based on a global market strategy while
Washington continues to pursue a militarist imperial strategy, designed to impose global
domination by force.
Conclusion
The frogs of the Western intelligentsia have crocked loud and long. They strut and pose as
the world's leading fly catchers -- but producing nothing credible in terms of objective
analyses.
China has serious social, economic and structural problems, but they are systematically
confronting them. The Chinese are committed to improving their society, economy and political
system on their own terms. They seek to solve immensely challenging problems, while refusing to
sacrifice their national sovereignty and the welfare of their people.
In confronting China as a world capitalist competitor, the US official policy is to surround
China with military bases and threaten to disrupt its economy. As part of this strategy,
Western media and so-called 'experts' magnify China's problems and minimize their own.
Unlike China, the US is wallowing at less than 2% annual growth. Wages stagnate for decades;
real wages and living standards decline. The costs of education and health care skyrocket,
while the quality of these vital services decline dramatically. Costs are growing,
un-employment is growing and worker suicide and mortality is growing. It is absolutely vital
that the West acknowledge China's impressive advances in order to learn, borrow and foster a
similar pattern of positive growth and equity. Co-operation between China and the US is
essential for promoting peace and justice in Asia.
Unfortunately, the previous US President Obama and the current President Trump have chosen
the path of military confrontation and aggression. The two terms of Obama's administration
present a record of failing wars, financial crises, burgeoning prisons and declining domestic
living standards. But for all their noise, these frogs, croaking in unison, will not change the
real world.
There is about as much Communism in the Peoples Communist Party of China as there is
Democracy in the US Democratic Party. Therein lies the problem. Old words and slogans are
used to obfuscate power plays by willful participants and to pretend the US is still vital in
the world. Empire stops at the bottom line which was broached in about 1986 when we became a
Debtor Nation. When China tires of lending us the money to build bases to harass them, it all
ends. Our troops will have to find their own way home to put down all the incredible unrest
here, then join the bread lines.
In contrast, China has not unilaterally attacked, invaded or occupied anyone in hundreds
of years. It does not place nuclear missiles on the US coast or borders. In fact, it does
not have a single overseas military base. Its own military bases, in the South China Sea,
are established to protect its vital maritime routes from pirates and the increasingly
provocative US naval armada. China's military budget, scheduled to increase by 7% in 2017,
is still less than one-fourth of the US budget.
One solution to China's "ghost cities" is to put a university there. China is also leading
the way on LFTR reactors. So you combine the two with a major college or university that has
a LFTR based industry like an advanced ceramics or solar cells or fuels manufacturing
facility and you have recipe for growth.
Modular LFTR reactors will allow China to replace coal burning with nuclear reactors.
The 1979 Sino-Vietnamese war occurred during the cold war. From the beginning China made
it clear that the war will be short and it is meant to punish Vietnam. The war has several
objectives. First it is to demonstrate the then Soviet Union's impotency. Soviet Union and
Vietnam signed a mutual defense agreement several months before the war. Soviet Union did
nothing when the war happened. Second the war is meant to put pressure on Vietnam to withdrew
from Cambodia. Third it is a reaction to Vietnam's belligerence border aggression. Before the
war Vietnam constantly lobbed grenade across the border into China. After the war peace and
tranquility at the border restored.
After China made its point, China swiftly withdrew its troops back to its border. China
and Vietnam has no land border disputes but China and Vietnam has maritime boundary disputes.
Vietnam is the most aggressive of all the parties in the South China Sea disputes by a wide
margin.
I buy a lot of stuff from China, mostly aliexpress.com and I have noticed that since the
American election the delivery times on most items have doubled or worse. I live in Canada,
how did he do that? I don't see the bargains that I did previously as well. All very spooky.
"Vietnam is the most aggressive of all the parties in the South China Sea disputes by a wide
margin."
Curious about this. How do you draw that conclusion.
Separately, while I agree with the tone of the article and general direction, a few
comments:
- China has an overseas military base under construction in Djibouti. Brigade strength
force will be deployed there.
- China's national (not provincial or locally published GDP numbers) GDP growth figures are
approximately correct. However, currently there is lots of state directed lending to keep the
growth up. The credit bubble might not pop but down the line dealing with so many bad loans
will prevent fresh loans and that will slow down growth.
- While the economy is a miracle for blue collar workers, for non-workers in the most hard up
parts of the country, social conditions are horrendous for a middle income country with lots
of central revenue and administrative ability. In the western hills of Guangxi 10% of the
kids are malnourished.
- China hasn't been expansionist in 250 years (not since Qing Empire into present day
southwest Xinjaing in the 1760s) however there are still a few black marks: Sino-Vietnamese
War, supporting nuclear proliferation in Pakistan, not doing enough to control North Korea
(this is the stupidest blunder of all and leaves Beijing vulnerable to nuclear attack one day
if the Kim family is about to go), and threatening war publicly against Philippines at one
point during the South China Sea crisis of the past several years (all forms of pressure are
permitted but its uncivilized to outright threaten war).
"Vietnam is the most aggressive of all the parties in the South China Sea disputes by a
wide margin."
Curious about this. How do you draw that conclusion.
I draw my conclusion on this article and here is the excerpt:
"In 1996, Vietnam occupied 24 features in the Spratly Islands (source). At that time,
according to the same source, China occupied nine. By 2015, according to the United States
government, Vietnam occupied 48 features, and China occupied eight.
On May 13, U.S. Assistant Secretary of Defense, David Shear, said this to the Senate Foreign
relations Committee: "Vietnam has 48 outposts; the Philippines, 8; China, 8; Malaysia, 5, and
Taiwan, 1."
In the past 20 years, according to the United States, China has not physically occupied
additional features. By contrast, Vietnam has doubled its holdings, and much of that activity
has occurred recently. The Vietnamese occupations appear to have increased from 30 to 48 in
the last six years.
Shear also pointed out that as of his speech, China did not have an airfield as other
claimants did. He said:
All of these same claimants have also engaged in construction activity of differing scope and
degree. The types of outpost upgrades vary across claimants but broadly are comprised of land
reclamation, building construction and extension, and defense emplacements. Between 2009 and
2014, Vietnam was the most active claimant in terms of both outpost upgrades and land
reclamation, reclaiming approximately 60 acres. All territorial claimants, with the exception
of China and Brunei, have also already built airstrips of varying sizes and functionality on
disputed features in the Spratlys."
Seems like they are operating as a National Socialist system now. The means of production
are owned by corporations but a powerful government keeps close control and directs business
activities to the benefit of the nation. The owners are rewarded with wealth and the
government advances their mutual interests for national progress.
They also place a heavy emphasis on cultural and racial pride.
Downside of course is that the types of civil liberties we enjoy are constricted and getting
out of line gets you smacked real good, sometimes supposedly up to the point of bullet to the
back of your head, and your family gets billed for the bullet.
A tough system to compete against unless the powers-that-be lacking effective external checks
and balance do something stupid like invade Russia or bomb Pearl Harbor.
The USA is character disordered. Demonize, belittle, bellicosity, and outright war. All we
need is liberty and enforcement of property rights and we'd be leaving the Chinese and
everyone else in the dust.
With the strangulation of our economy at home through the unconstitutional
regulatory/administrative law colossus, instead of outgrowing our competitors we wish to
shoot them down.
The term "Contain China" aptly demonstrates our stupidity insofar as forward thinking is
concerned. You don't improve your lot by dedicating yourself to holding others down. It
doesn't work in athletics, education, in relationships, or in free enterprise.
So it is odd to see nary a whit of protest to the idea when it should be ridiculed on the
face of it.
I do of course see the same worn-out playbook of demonize, demonize, demonize being used
by the Washington establishment. We have to "do something" about China. Not do something to
our appalling education performance, savings and capital formation, strangulatory laws,
etc.
I married into a Filipino family and have a house there. The Filipinos were fond of saying
that the USA wanted to fight to the last Filipino over the South China Sea. They've been
smart enough to work with the Chinese, who are investing billions of dollars there developing
hydrocarbons and ports for transhipment like Singapore instead of launching a foolhardy war
with China.
When I encounter people screeching about Chinese aggression against the poor little
Filipinos or fiction about threats to international shipping it really strikes me how out of
their minds people can be. We want to see our family working on ships there, not dying in a
foolhardy confrontation. The Chinese have a long history of trading and running businesses in
the Philippines. It is only our invincible ignorance, arrogance, and narcissism that results
in a failure to see why the Philippines has turned towards China.
I go through Shanghai Pudong a lot and over the years it has been obvious how the people
have become wealthier, how the infrastructure has stepped up to first world standards, and
how smart/snappy the people are. We are really underestimating the Chinese and making a lot
of self-serving rationalizations for their success.
We need to fix our own failings instead of trying to cut others down. China is already
larger in GDP and can easily be twice ours before 2030 with relative growth rates the way
they are.
China showed own impotence and lack of serious military capabilities in that war.
Vietnamese forces were not even participating while local militia was kicking Chinese
military back side. They obviously had to withdraw telling they gave a lesson. It is typical
Chinese way to cut losses and avoid total loss of face aka du lian.
It looks like lots of people think that country with 1.4 billion population can prosper long
term and keep rising living standards of her population in the future on limited planet. They
so far have managed to achieve improvements but at a cost of long term sustainability. Their
ecological troubles are of huge magnitude and so are debt and demographic issues. We are
already at each other throats fighting for diminishing resources, so it is highly doubtful
Chinese or Indian projects can last.
To be fair, comparing nominal military budgets can be very misleading and just dumb.
Sure, they are an easy way to rank different different militaries, but when you compare
Western vs. Emerging powers and their military budgets, or countries with their large-scale
MICs (which to be fair, there are only a few USA, Russia, China, France to some extent, India
in the future, but certainly not today) vs. weapons exporters, the results are largely BS.
Price levels are so different. Not to mention that the maintenance costs in the US military
are absolutely massive.
Currently Russia is a great example. The devaluation is basically irrelevant for the
Russian military. It should be obvious that Saudi Arabian military doesn't have a higher
budget. The US certainly doesn't have 10-15 times more resources at its disposal. Russia
spends rubles, it doesn't import weapons. So in reality the difference vs. the US something
like 4x at most.
China is the same. The yuan has devalued vs. the dollar, so in dollar terms their growth
has stagnated, which doesn't have anything to do with reality.
So overall, in comparable terms, let's say that the US spends $600 billion. In that
case:
Russia spends atleast 120-150 billion
China spends atleast 250 billion, probably closer to 300 billion
And whereas the US capabilities are spread all around the world, Russia and China are focused
on their backyards.
So in reality China's "real" military spending is atleast something like 40% of the US
level already, not less than 1/4,.
The Sovs or the Chicoms would have sent Petras to the gulag ages ago. In the enlightened
West, we merely consign him to places like UR, thus marginalising him and making it
increasingly difficult to eke out a living. See Fred Reed's piece on columnists and wonder
why more of them don't end up sucking on the business end of a firearm when they fail to toe
the party line.
Hard to get balance on this topic because it is human nature to favour false champions &
heroes & rivals fake 'opposition' Don't like USA-Nato? Why then, plenty of fanboys to
offer you Russia, China, Iran etc James Petras as above, André Vltchek, Andrei 'The
Saker' Raevsky, Dick Cheney's hoaxer friend 'Edward Snowden', Netanyahu's hoaxer friend
Julian Assange etc all selling 'opposition hero' tickets
The West has lots of stupid anti-China rubbish, sure but let's recall the Chinese official
who said they learned how to do fake statistics & propaganda from Yank Americans The
China reality is as follows:
China was the prime beneficiary of the global credit bubble 1990s-2000s, they will crash
along with the rest of the world when all blows up, but crash worse because bad China debt is
so huge think USA 1929, it won't stop China's long-term rise, but they will have a horrible
decade & maybe ChiComs will lose power in the upheaval
China is a huge US-style bully, ask ASEAN people privately, or other Asians but as seen
with the USA, other countries feel they must kiss up to the bully whilst e.g., Vietnam has
been a bully to Cambodia on smaller scale
China, Russia, Iran do some things right, principally working to see that middle classes
rise & expand & most people are better off economically, for as long as they were
able to do this, Turkey's Erdogan too, it is a magic formula, like Hitler's 1930s Germany
economic success
But all of these US 'rivals' have skeletons in the closet, hundreds of slow-torture
hangings & killing women by stones annually in Iran, China's thousands of executions
& ethnic repression & sea-lane bullying, Russia's past killing of perhaps 100,000
Muslims just to keep Chechnya-Dagestan oil & gas income
But pundits need someone to love & admire & promote the fake 'hero' the fake
'opposition' in the West the mafia gangsterism we know best is the US-Nato kind, so we go
gaga over fake 'dissident' or foreign 'heroes' served up to us There are 'good things' in the
West despite the bullying mass-killing horrors ditto with China Russia etc,, & people
ignore the bad when they hero-worship, either East or West
The fake 'hero opposition' is the most successful of all oligarch memes It's plain as day,
for example, that Dick Cheney's little friend, anti-9-11-truth, nothing-really-new 'Edward
Snowden' is a fraud along with Rothschild employee & ex-gay-p-rnographer Glenn Greenwald
Snowden maybe already having helped identify, silence, kill real dissidents duped into
contacting Greenwald or his NY Times or UK Guardian pumpers yet most still eagerly hold on to
fake 'opposition hero' themes, China or Russia, or Assange or 'Snowden' -
Yes that's true, but Astuteobservor is also correct that the paragraph as written is
inaccurate and misleading. It should be amended, imo, as it's a blot on an otherwise very
good and timely piece. It's an anti-missile system, not one that can attack cities, and it's
kinetic not nuclear armed.
I love prof. Petraus. But wages itself do not reflect reality. (Growth of the wages
maybe)
Wages must be accompanied by price of bread and price of rent.
Volume of production allows larger engineering and research and development sections.
That is the most significant factor in the competition in the world.
After the Vietnam War, the Vietnamese claimed they were the 3rd strongest nation in the
world based on the the amount of military hardware left behind by the US, and the Vietnamese
started to invade China to reclaim their "entitled land, " and conqure Laos and Cambodia to
build their Great Indo-China Federation. The Sino-Vietnam war was the war Chinese repelled
Vietnamese invadors just like war in 1962, China repelled Indian invadors in Tibet.
Downside of course is that the types of civil liberties we enjoy are constricted and
getting out of line gets you smacked real good
Where do people get the romantic notion that we enjoy civil liberties?
Anyone who reads of Lincoln's, Wilson's, FDR's and GWB's ( to name a few) wholesale
dismissal of civil liberties could write a book on the subject.
I'd like to know how we can possibly have much by way of said liberties in a centralized,
bureaucratized, militarized, police state effectively owned and ruled by vicious
oligarchs.
Our loss of civil liberties began long ago.
"But while I beheld with pleasure the dawn of liberty rising in Europe, I saw with
regret the lustre of it fading in America
But a faction, acting in disguise, was rising in America; they had lost sight of first
principles. They were beginning to contemplate government as a profitable monopoly, and the
people as hereditary property ."
THOMAS PAINE TO THE CITIZENS OF THE UNITED STATES,
And particularly to the Leaders of the Federal Faction.
LETTER I, Nov 15,1802
"The enlightened part of Europe have given us the greatest credit for inventing the
instrument of security for the rights of the people and have been not a little surprised to
see us so soon give it up."
Thomas Jefferson letter to Francis Hopkinson of March 13, 1789
Men haven't got the freedom today that they had when the Constitution was written. The
men in the West had a great deal of freedoms more than the men in the East
who copied the traditions of Europe.
-Jeanette Rankin, interview ~1977
Rankin, running as a Republican Progressive, was the first woman voted to congress
Well, I suppose I might say "relative" civil liberties. To your point, yes, as soon as we
started exercising our inherent, inalienable liberties, State and commercial actors started
working to turn them from natural rights to licenses that may be granted by the State only as
long as it served the purposes of the State.
It is hard not to imagine that the Chinese system, in contrast to Western Liberal-Democracy,
is the wave of the future. What is more is that China will invariably increase its
geopolitical influence in the coming decades.
Most comments on the Sino Vietnamese War reveals quite a lot of ignorance about it.
When Deng Xiaopeng and Lee Kuan Yew of Singapore first met, Lee Kuan Yew began with
thanking him for the China's kinetic military R2P mission
Why?
Lee Kuan Yew had operational plans to deploy a Singapore military force to Thailand and
their army was manned largely by conscripted teenagers mostly. He had to sell the public to
send their sons to war because it be too late if they had to fight the Vietnamese when they
were across in Malaysia, so fight now. The Vietnamese were already having skirmishes the
Thais across the Mekong.
Next, the PLA was pretty dismissive of Vietnam, told Deng, we would not need to use no
stinking air power. Just the army would suffice. Why? Giap was "assisted" by a couple of
Chinese generals through the Vietnam War. Walk in the park.
Turned out it wasn't a walk in the park but it was comfortable enough that the PLA got
themselves into artillery range of Hanoi and deployed and use their arty units but not
hitting Hanoi. Then while being not a walk in the park and thus egg in their face operation
which Deng then used as leverage over the generals about PLA reform, it remained comfy enough
that the PLA began a sure and steady scorch earth withdrawal.
And those Vietnamese troop concentrations across the Mekong were gone and Lee Kuan Yew was
one happy camper alright.
The sight of those artillery units with range of Hanoi and the scorch earth withdrawal
left quite an impression on Giap who till his death warned the rest of the Vietnamese elite
never to go to war with China.
And it didn't end with the withdrawal. Deng may have been so taken by Lee Kuan Yew's words
that he scheduled regular border incursions to keep the Vietnamese on their toes thru the
80s. Or maybe he didn't like the subsequent pogroms against the Hoa and who inspite of this
are now the lords of commerce in Vietnam.
But all these are old musty stuff.
And the anti China propaganda never really worked and doesn't really matter as FDI into
China grew and grew with years passing. Heck even Netanyahu knows who is buttering his toast.
Cut ties over the UNSC vote? Nah smoke and mirrors probably for local politics reasons.
The conservative estimates of Chinese abortions since the mid-1970s is over 400 million.
China is the fastest, aging country in the world. The Chinese were never that smart to begin
with (contra propaganda from Jews and white degenerates who marry the Chinese). In the 1980s
Japan was going to take over the world. Place your bets on Caucasian/European Christians,
pagans.
Get back to us when the rule of law in China is such that China is considered a safe haven
for capital -- when Chinese with money stop voting with their feet about that -- when Chinese
women stop 'birth tourism' to the US -- when Chinese students desperate to gain entry to a
good US university stop cheating on the SAT -- also, perhaps talk to the numerous victims of
Chinese 'reverse merger' etc stock scams, people who have no recourse because the Chinese
government refuses to cooperate.
Two elite Vietnamese divisions that kicked the American out of South Vietnam were
destroyed by the PLA in that short period of time. The Vietnamese central government had to
vacate Hanoi before the PLA's bombardment of Hanoi. Without Deng's order PLA would divide
Vietnam in two again. Finally the American was on China's side on the war to punish the
Vietnamese; the American was so grateful that Chinese took vengeance against the Vietnamese
for them.
Russian should know Russia is not USSR, and they should not be upset when USSR's
incompetence is mentioned and troll fake news with boiling blood neck.
so just how much has Mr. Xi paid you for this piece?
1) Actual salaries are irrelevant as you ought to know because in the end it boils down to
PPP.
2) Mr. Xi "remove" – ought to be "removal" btw is simply political battle for survival
using "corruption" as an excuse. Should Mr. Xi be serious about fighting real corruption, 99%
or more of entire politburo incl. himself ought to have been executed or in jail.
3) How about PRC destruction of Philippine's corrals (from another left wing publication
– http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-35106631
)
4) Artificial islands (weaponized) in South China sea?
Look US is as much war criminal as PRC – it is just that your Goebbels-like (or
should I say Lev Davidovic like) propaganda makes me want to throw up.
I really enjoy UNZ for offering different – usually independent and critical –
platform.
Your article is beyond disgrace a la New York Times / WaPo / Pravda /Rt.com / Spiegel /
Xinhua and other "news" sources. Perhaps you might consider publishing there and stop
polluting independent websites.
Thomas
PS I have visited PRC and Taiwan about 20 times, speak passable Mandarin and live with a
Chinese born partner FYI.
It seems here is another insect in the US dismal swamps trolling zero-sum cold war
mentality wet dream. You should know Chinese lend RMB to the locals to bust growth and
Chinese can print RMB thru the thin air just like the Fed, in addition China has already set
up state owned funds to offload banks' debt load in exchange for their equity ownership, so
the banks are back to healthy books and do the lending again just like the Fed, it is
puzzling why such sophisticate safety mechanism will allow bad loans preventing fresh loans
to be made.
Not doing the American bidding is black mark? Wow, this is surely an example of American
exceptionalism without bound.
Would you accept that the USA is a 'God-fearing' morally defunct evil 'puritan' nation? If
you don't then you should not take what you are fed from cradle to grave the propaganda
cooked up by those insects with a mindset belonging to the past, stalled in the old days of
colonialism and constrained by the zero-sum cold war mentality from their dismal swamps.
China has not engaged the rest of the world in military confrontation, colonialist
adventurism and wars while establishing itself on the world stage. Perhaps they have learned
something from Western History (or the failures of), or the teachings of Confucius. I suspect
the latter, for they have not done very well when practicing the forceful and brutal ways of
the West.
They are on a roll, and it looks like they will get there, and probably stay there, for
some time to come.
I do not like the way Newsweek Columnist, F. Zakaria
(the neocon ? I don't know exactly what to call him, but I am sure the Indians have a term
for one of their own who joined the British Raj, put on their pretty uniforms, took their
pay, and began to see himself as one of them, pure, high and mighty in his new white skin,
topee and title, ever the S'arn't Major, never the Brigadier!, with riding crop and bayonet,
and boots with which to downtrod!)
writes, or the things he usually writes about, but his article "Does the Future Belong to
China?" was right on the money to me. I'll give credit to the support he seems to have had
from other writers worldwide, which may be, perhaps, what makes it so good and, in my
opinion, prophetic.
He writes: "When historians look back at the last decades of the 20th century, they
might well point to 1979 as a watershed. That year the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan,
digging its grave as a superpower. It was also the year that China began its economic
reforms. They were launched at a most unlikely gathering, the Third Plenum of the 11th
Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, held in December 1978. Before the formal
meetings, at a working-group session, the newly empowered party boss, Deng Xiaoping, gave a
speech that turned out to be the most important one in modern Chinese history. He urged
that the regime focus on development and modernization, and let facts-not ideology-guide
its path. "It doesn't matter if it is a black cat or a white cat," Deng often said. "As
long as it can catch mice, it's a good cat." Since then, China has done just that, pursued
a modernization path that is ruthlessly pragmatic and non-ideological. The results have
been astonishing. China has grown around 9 percent a year for more than 25 years, the
fastest growth rate for a major economy in recorded history. In that same period it has
moved 300 million people out of poverty and quadrupled the average Chinese person's income.
And all this has happened, so far, without catastrophic social upheavals. The Chinese
leadership has to be given credit for this historic achievement. There are many who
criticize China's economic path. They argue that the numbers are fudged, that corruption is
rampant, that its banks are teetering on the edge, that regional tensions will explode,
that inequality is rising dangerously and that things are coming to a head. For a decade
now they have been predicting, "This cannot last, China will crash, it cannot keep this
up." So far at least, none of these prognoses has come true. And while China has many
problems, it also has something any Third World country would kill for-consistently high
growth."
We are living in changing times, and the times are changing at an ever increasing
exponential rate!
*Worst of all, Western 'Asia' experts and scholars try 'role reversal':
While US bases and ships increasingly encircle China, the Chinese become the aggressors
and the bellicose US imperialists whine about their victim-hood.*
Like i say,
ROBBER CRYING OUT ROBBERY.
Of all the slimy traits of the unitedsnake, this one takes the cake !
Washington has just invaded Syria, its 500th victim since 1785.
To Assad's protest of illegal invasion, Centcom commander Votel sniffs,
'We'r going after the ISIS , we dont need no stinking permission from nobody'
The hubris befitting the world's no 1 rogue state !
Monsul in Iraq is being 'turned to shards' ala Fallujah.
this time 'no more stinking rule of engagement that tie one hand behind our back, this time
we fight to win' ,
promised Trump the
'anti establishment' prez ! [1]
Already civilian casualties have runned into the hundreds.
In Yemen, the Washington sponsored genocidal war waged by Saudis rages on.
Its another gigantic shooting fish in a barrel slaughter where the
coalition of killing [usa/saudi/UAE] seal off the whole country then pummel the trapped
populace with F16, Apache gunships and artillery. Its Fallujah x 1000 . !
Meanwhile in Oz where permier Li Ke Qiang is visiting,
the ever so santimonous press/ pundits ponder,
' We already have our friends in Washington who share our values in human rights and rule
of law ,
why should we engage this 'human rights abuser and SCS bully,?'
What fucked up mind,
What a fucked up world !
[1]
Nam/Iraq were 'restrained' wars ?
Only in the USA,
Where the inmates are running the asylum !
Nuclear armed THADD? This sentence alone betrays a lot of the authors ignorance. Ignoring the
fact that the name of the weapons system is THAAD (Terminal High Altidude Area Defense),
which could be a simple typo, even a short Google search would have shown the author that
THAAD-missiles do not even carry explosives, much less nuclear bombs.
THAAD missiles are basically bullets that rely on kinetic impact alone to destroy incoming
ballistic missiles. Even if they somehow could be nuclear armed, their range is only 200 kms
which is nowhere near enough to reach China from South Korea.
China's objection to the system being stationed in Korea is not that the missiles are an
offensive threat, but that THAAD's powerful radar could be used to see deep into Chinese
territory.
It took until 22 comments for anyone to really take a look at reality. These article
always only look at one side of the balance sheet. China has gone on a MASSIVE printing spree
to achieve the "growth" they currently have, the US is no better but for some reason facts
matter for the US.
China also has a demographic (as was mentioned in another comment) time bomb waiting in
the wings (just like all western nations) and yet it's also never mentioned in these "China =
great, USA = lame" hit pieces.
A market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
And finally, what is the author really saying? That socialism or quasi communism is a
better economic system? It appears so
p.s. And apparently China economic statistics are honest and accurate at least to this
author.
One is reminded that, contrary to popular propaganda, Malthus was right. It is an iron law
of development that no nation has become prosperous until AFTER fertility rates moderated.
(it is mostly the RATE of population increase, not absolute numbers).
Under Mao the government deliberately created a massive population explosion – and
when that was (predictably) a disaster did an about face. It was ugly – and would not
have been needed at all except for the initial pro-natalist policies – but it has given
China a chance to progress.
India has seen economic growth higher than China's – and all swallowed up by ever
more people.
Mexico, the United States, and South America all have aggressive policies aimed at
maximizing population growth – with, again, predictable results. Wages for the many go
down and profits for the few go up.
Yes there is more to it than just demographics. But demographics are nevertheless
powerful. And the Chinese government has apparently decided not to cancel out the effects of
high wages by increasing the supply of people. At least for now.
In the USA. a war of opposing certitudes and denunciations is waged day to day between the
long-ruling US corporate media and the White House. Both continuously proclaim ringing
recriminations of the other's 'fake news'. Over months they both portray each other as
malevolent liars.
To the Americans anything does not fit their liking is fake news, malevolent liars, even
including their elected president.
Shouldn't all the governments be "Government of the people, by the people, for the people"
regardless their ideology? It seems you have been brainwashed from cradle to grave and are so
deep in the ideology that you don't know what a government is for.
I know it hurts, but China failed to achieve war objectives hence masquerading as lesson
given and withdrawal. Chinese army lost lost about 10% of total army strength and had to
withdraw. While USSR did not participate directly Soviet advisors were helping with military
operational planning.
I also forgot to mention that what we see in China is US manufacturing moved there. USA
can blame only herself for creating her geopolitical rival. Avarice is a mortal sin. It was
never enough for US propertied classes. As Marx told that for 100% returns capitalist are
ready to break own neck and there is no crime capitalists would not commit for 300% annual
returns. So, destroying own country's future, I mean USA, is a small pickle.
When I first time came to China in 1988, many steal wore Mao suits and the country was dirt
poor. China with or without Deng did not have resources and know hows to rise without outside
investments on massive scale.
Material domination has supplanted spiritual development as the primary goal of western
society, when everyone else despises that approach to life.
I don't think shacking up with your partner without marriage plans, or the glamorization
of homosexuality and pornography will ever gain approval in traditionalist China.
murkkans like to bleat about their 'freedom' to choose their leaders.
Well every four/eight years that vaunted system offers them a choice bet the likes of Bush
senior/Bush junior/Clinton the sex fiend/Clinton the witch/Obomber/Donald *The swamp thing*
Trump,
the end result being a continuous streak of 45 war criminals in the WH.
Well if thats something to be proud about,
good luck to them !
"Chinese can print RMB thru the thin air just like the Fed"
Explain how a high rate of inflation will not disrupt economic stability and therefore
growth.
"China has already set up state owned funds to offload banks' debt load in exchange for
their equity ownership"
The equity ownership is in companies that are troubled is not worth much. What you are
therefore talking about is not an exchange but write downs equivalent to hundreds of billions
of dollars. To put it in the most elementary way, the depletion of resources to write down
hundreds of billions of dollars of bad loans diverts finite resources that would otherwise be
used for new lending.
"Not doing the American bidding is black mark"
Do you recognize there are various positions besides against us or with us? So not
supporting China publicly using threats of war to settle disputes (e.g. a general appearing
on state tv threatening war against the Philippines during the height of the diplomatic
dispute in 2014), in your mind means being pro-American, anti-Chinese. Do you recognize there
are several other positions than simply either being this or that?
"Under Mao the government deliberately created a massive population explosion – and
when that was (predictably) a disaster did an about face."
What?! Under Mao, well BEFORE the 1-child policy of the late 1970s, fertility had dropped
off to ~3. That would be from ~6 around the time of the revolution.
Perhaps you are unaware that, globally, serious poverty has declined dramatically over the
last 20 years -- and it is ALL (yes, 100%) due to the lifting of hundreds of millions of
Chinese poor people out of poverty. The wages of those formerly-poor people reflect a new,
much-improved reality.
The clearest way to articulate what's going on with placing a 'missile defence' system
next to North Korea (and thus close to China) is that it's (1) tactically defensive, to be
used against any incoming missiles, and (2) strategically aggressive, being used close to
someone else's borders to enable an aggressive strike. The same is true of 'missile defence'
systems set up in Poland against Russia.
These tactics do not just suppress information. They enforce conformity at much
deeper level.
Notable quotes:
"... I am using the Orwellian verb "unperson" playfully, but I'm also trying to be precise. What's happening isn't censorship, technically, at least not in the majority of cases. While there are examples of classic censorship (e.g., in the UK, France, and Germany), apart from so-called "terrorist content," most governments aren't formally banning expressions of anti-corporatist dissent. This isn't Czechoslovakia, after all. This is global capitalism, where the repression of dissent is a little more subtle. The point of Google unpersoning CounterPunch (and probably many other publications) and Pulitzer Prize-winning journalists like Hedges is not to prevent them from publishing their work or otherwise render them invisible to readers. The goal is to delegitmize them, and thus decrease traffic to their websites and articles, and ultimately drive them out of business, if possible. ..."
"... Another objective of this non-censorship censorship is discouraging writers like myself from contributing to publications like CounterPunch, Truthdig, Alternet, Global Research, and any other publications the corporatocracy deems "illegitimate." Google unpersoning a writer like Hedges is a message to other non-ball-playing writers. The message is, "this could happen to you." This message is meant for other journalists, primarily, but it's also aimed at writers like myself who are making a living (to whatever degree) writing and selling what we think of as "literature." ..."
"... These tactics do not just suppress information. They enforce conformity at much deeper level. ..."
"... Chomsky explains how this system operates in What Makes Mainstream Media Mainstream . It isn't a question of censorship the system operates on rewards and punishments, financial and emotional coercion, and subtler forms of intimidation. Making examples of non-cooperators is a particularly effective tactic. Ask any one of the countless women whose careers have been destroyed by Harvey Weinstein, or anyone who's been to graduate school, or worked at a major corporation. ..."
"... C. J. Hopkins is an award-winning American playwright, novelist and satirist based in Berlin. His plays are published by Bloomsbury Publishing (UK) and Broadway Play Publishing (USA). His debut novel, ZONE 23 , is published by Snoggsworthy, Swaine & Cormorant. He can reached at cjhopkins.com or consentfactory.org . ..."
On November 30, 2016, presumably right at the stroke of midnight, Google Inc. unpersoned
CounterPunch. They didn't send out a press release or anything. They just quietly removed it
from the Google News aggregator. Not very many people noticed. This happened just as the "fake
news" hysteria was being unleashed by the corporate media, right around the time The Washington
Post ran
this neo-McCarthyite smear piece vicariously accusing CounterPunch, and a number of other
publications, of being "peddlers of Russian propaganda." As I'm sure you'll recall, that
astounding piece of "journalism" (which The Post was promptly forced to disavow with an absurd
disclaimer but has refused to retract) was based on the claims of an anonymous website
apparently staffed by a couple of teenagers and a formerly rabidly anti-Communist, now rabidly
anti-Putin think tank. Little did most people know at the time that these were just the opening
salvos in what has turned out to be an all-out crackdown on any and all forms of vocal
opposition to the global corporate ruling classes and their attempts to quash the ongoing
nationalist backlash against their neoliberal agenda.
Almost a year later, things are much clearer. If you haven't been following this story
closely, and you care at all about freedom of the press, freedom of speech, and that kind of
stuff, you may want to take an hour or two and catch up a bit on what's been happening. I
offered a few examples of some of the measures governments and corporations have been taking to
stifle expressions of dissent in my latest
piece in CounterPunch , and there are many more detailed articles online, like this one by Andre
Damon from July, and this follow-up he published last
week (which reports that Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and author Chris Hedges has also
been unpersoned). Or, if you're the type of soul who only believes what corporations tell you,
and who automatically dismisses anything published by a Trotskyist website, here's
one from last December in The Guardian, and an
op-ed in The New York Times , both of which at least report what Google, Twitter, and
Facebook are up to. Or you could read this
piece by Robert Parry , who also has "legitimate" (i.e., corporate) credentials, and who
hasn't been unpersoned just yet, although I'm sure they'll get around to him eventually.
I am using the Orwellian verb "unperson" playfully, but I'm also trying to be precise.
What's happening isn't censorship, technically, at least not in the majority of cases. While
there are examples of classic censorship (e.g., in the UK, France, and Germany), apart from
so-called "terrorist content," most governments aren't formally banning expressions of
anti-corporatist dissent. This isn't Czechoslovakia, after all. This is global capitalism,
where the repression of dissent is a little more subtle. The point of Google unpersoning
CounterPunch (and probably many other publications) and Pulitzer Prize-winning journalists like
Hedges is not to prevent them from publishing their work or otherwise render them invisible to
readers. The goal is to delegitmize them, and thus decrease traffic to their websites and
articles, and ultimately drive them out of business, if possible.
Another objective of this non-censorship censorship is discouraging writers like myself
from contributing to publications like CounterPunch, Truthdig, Alternet, Global Research, and
any other publications the corporatocracy deems "illegitimate." Google unpersoning a writer
like Hedges is a message to other non-ball-playing writers. The message is, "this could happen
to you." This message is meant for other journalists, primarily, but it's also aimed at writers
like myself who are making a living (to whatever degree) writing and selling what we think of
as "literature."
Yes, as you've probably guessed by now, in addition to writing political satire, I am, as
rogue journalist Caitlin Johnstone so aptly put it once, an "elitist wanker." I've spent the
majority of my adult life writing stage plays and working in the theater, and it doesn't get
any more elitist than that. My plays are published by "establishment" publishers, have won a
few awards, and have been produced internationally. I recently published my "debut novel"
(which is what you call it if you're an elitist wanker) and am currently trying to promote and
sell it. I mention this, not to blow my little horn, but to the set the stage to try to
illustrate how these post-Orwellian intimidation tactics (i.e., unpersoning people from the
Internet) work. These tactics do not just suppress information. They enforce conformity at much
deeper level.
The depressing fact of the matter is, in our brave new Internet-dominated world,
corporations like Google, Twitter, and Facebook (not to mention Amazon), are, for elitist
wankers like me, in the immortal words of Colonel Kurz, "either friends or they are truly
enemies to be feared." If you are in the elitist wanker business, regardless of whether you're
Jonathan Franzen, Garth Risk Hallberg, Margaret Atwood, or some "mid-list" or "emerging"
author, there is no getting around these corporations. So it's kind of foolish, professionally
speaking, to write a bunch of essays that will piss them off, and then publish these essays in
CounterPunch. Literary agents advise against this. Other elitist literary wankers, once they
discover what you've been doing, will avoid you like the bubonic plague. Although it's
perfectly fine to write books and movies about fictional evil corporations, writing about how
real corporations are using their power to mold societies into self-policing virtual prisons of
politically-correct, authoritarian consumers is well, it's something that is just not done in
professional elitist wanker circles.
Normally, all this goes without saying, as these days most elitist wankers are trained how
to write, and read, and think, in MFA conformity factories, where they screen out any unstable
weirdos with unhealthy interests in political matters. This is to avoid embarrassing episodes
like Harold
Pinter's Nobel Prize lecture (which, if you haven't read it, you probably should), and is
why so much of contemporary literature is so well-behaved and instantly forgettable. This
institutionalized screening system is also why the majority of journalists employed by
mainstream media outlets understand, without having to be told, what they are, and are not,
allowed to report. Chomsky explains how this system operates in What Makes Mainstream Media Mainstream . It isn't a
question of censorship the system operates on rewards and punishments, financial and emotional
coercion, and subtler forms of intimidation. Making examples of non-cooperators is a
particularly effective tactic. Ask any one of the countless women whose careers have been
destroyed by Harvey Weinstein, or anyone who's been to graduate school, or worked at a major
corporation.
Or let me provide you with a personal example.
A couple weeks ago, I googled myself (which we elitist wankers are wont to do), and noticed
that two of my published books had disappeared from the "Knowledge Panel" that appears in the
upper right of the search results. I also noticed that the people "People Also Search For" in
the panel had changed. For years, consistently, the people you saw there had been a variety of
other elitist literary wankers and leftist types. Suddenly, they were all rather right-wing
types, people like Ilana Mercer and John Derbyshire, and other VDARE writers. So that was a
little disconcerting.
I set out to contact the Google Search specialists to inquire about this mysterious
development, and was directed to a series of unhelpful web pages directing me to other
unhelpful pages with little boxes where you can write and submit a complaint to Google, which
they will completely ignore. Being an elitist literary wanker, I also wrote to Google Books,
and exchanged a number of cordial emails with an entity (let's call her Ms. O'Brien) who
explained that, for "a variety of reasons," the "visibility" of my books (which had been
consistently visible for many years) was subject to change from day to day, and that,
regrettably, she couldn't assist me further, and that sending her additional cordial emails was
probably a pointless waste of time. Ms. O'Brien was also pleased to report that my books had
been restored to "visibility," which, of course, when I checked, they hadn't.
"Whatever," I told myself, "this is silly. It's probably just some IT thing, maybe Google
Books updating its records, or something." However, I was still perplexed by the "People Also
Search For" switcheroo, because it's kind of misleading to link my writing to that of a bunch
of serious right-wingers. Imagine, if you were a dystopian sci-fi fan, and you googled me to
check out my book and see what else I had written, and so on, and my Google "Knowledge Panel"
popped up and displayed all these far-right VDARE folks. Unless you're a far-right VDARE type
yourself, that might be a little bit of a turn-off.
At that point, I wondered if I was getting paranoid. Because Google Search runs on
algorithms, right? And my political satire and commentary is published, not only in
CounterPunch, but also in The Unz Review, where these far-right-wing types are also published.
Moreover, my pieces are often reposted by what appear to be "Russia-linked" websites, and
everyone knows that the Russians are all a bunch of white supremacists, right? On top of which,
it's not like I'm Stephen King here. I am hardly famous enough to warrant the attention of any
post-Orwellian corporate conspiracy to stigmatize anti-establishment dissent by manipulating
how authors are displayed on Google (i.e., subtly linking them to white supremacists,
anti-Semites, and others of that ilk).
So, okay, I reasoned, what probably happened was over the course of twenty-four hours, for
no logical reason whatsoever, all the folks who had been googling me (along with other leftist
and literary figures) suddenly stopped googling me, all at once, while, more or less at the
exact same time, hundreds of right-wingers started googling me (along with those white
supremacist types they had, theoretically, already been googling). That kind of makes sense
when you think about it, right? I mean, Google couldn't be doing this intentionally. It must
have been some sort of algorithm that detected this sudden, seismic shift in the demographic of
people googling me.
Or, I don't know, does that possibly sound like a desperate attempt to rationalize the
malicious behavior of an unaccountable, more or less god-like, global corporation that wields
the power of life and death over my book sales and profile on the Internet (a more or less
god-like global corporation that could do a lot of additional damage to my sales and reputation
with complete impunity once the piece you're reading is published)? Or am I simply getting
paranoid, and, in fact, I've developed a secret white supremacist fan base without my
knowledge? Only Google knows for sure.
Such are the conundrums elitist literary wankers have to face these days that is, those of
us wankers who haven't learned to keep our fucking mouths shut yet. Probably the safest course
of action, regardless of whether I'm being paranoid or Google does have me on some kind of
list, is to lay off the anti-corporatist essays, and definitely stop contributing to
CounterPunch, not to mention The Unz Review, and probably also give up the whole dystopian
satire novel thing, and ensure that my second novel conforms to the "normal" elitist wanker
rules (which every literary wanker knows, but which, technically, do not exist). Who knows, if
I play my cards right, maybe I can even sell the rights to Miramax, or okay, some other
corporation.
Once that happens, I assume that Google will want to restore me to normal personhood, and
return my books to visibility, and I will ride off into the Hollywood sunset with the Clintons,
Clooneys, and Pichais, and maybe even Barack Obama himself, if he isn't off jet skiing with
Richard Branson, or having dinner with Jeff and MacKenzie Bezos, who just happen to live right
down the street, or hawking the TPP on television. By that time, CounterPunch and all those
other "illegitimate" publications will have been forced onto the dark web anyway, so I won't be
giving up all that much. I know, that sounds pretty cold and cynical, but my liberal friends
will understand I just hope all my new white supremacist fans will find it in their hearts to
forgive me.
C. J. Hopkins is an award-winning American playwright, novelist and satirist based in
Berlin. His plays are published by Bloomsbury Publishing (UK) and Broadway Play Publishing
(USA). His debut novel, ZONE 23 , is
published by Snoggsworthy, Swaine & Cormorant. He can reached at cjhopkins.com or consentfactory.org .
Thank you for mustering the courage and then taking the time to spell out these outrages in a
straightforward, unemotional way. I've appreciated the humor that centers your other essays,
but there's not a damned thing funny about this.
But why are things as they are? With billions aplenty, our rulers must be driven by their
libido dominandi. We're left to wonder only whether they get off more on ostracizing the
Hopkinses, on buying the politicians, or on herding the sheep from bathrooms to statues to
flags.
"... What Whyte ran across was the sub-culture of the workplace as followed by those who set themselves upon a "career path" within a specific organization. The stereotypical examples are those, to quote Whyte , "who have left home spiritually as well as physically, to take the vows of organization life. [They adopt an ethic that] rationalizes the organization's demand for fealty and gives those who offer it wholeheartedly a sense of dedication." ..."
"... Today, some private-sector organizations have moved away from the most extreme demands of such conformity, but some other career lines have not, two examples being the military and career party politics. ..."
"... The Power Elite ..."
"... The Organization Man. ..."
"... hose who make their careers within these entities, especially the military and the government, are ideologically conditioned to identify their well-being with the specific goals of their chosen organizations. That means they must bind themselves not only to the goals, but also to the ethics of their workplace. ..."
"... Those who balk are eventually punished and cast out of the organizations. Those who guide these organizations, and essentially decide how rules and ethics will be interpreted and applied, are Mills's "power elite." ..."
"... It may come as a surprise to the reader that party politics as practiced by many of the Western democracies is quite similar. The "power elites" who reside at the top of the so-called greasy pole, holding positions as the head of ruling and contesting parties, are likely to demand the same sort of obedience to orders as any military officer. ..."
"... Rafe explained it this way ..."
"... Leaders of political parties can control their organizations in dictatorial fashion. They have power to reward or punish their party's cohorts in a fashion that can make or break careers. For instance, they control the dispersal of party funds from monies for elections right down to one's office budget; they determine whether a candidate will have to face a primary challenge; they make all committee assignments; they can promote and demote within the party ranks. ..."
"... As Rafe Mair observed, the possibilities for both reward and punishment are almost endless. In this way elected officials become bound to the diktats of their party's leaders. They cannot normally vote their conscience or reliably represent their constituency unless doing so coincides with the desires of their party's leadership. ..."
"... Foreign Policy Inc.: Privatizing America's National Interest ..."
"... America's Palestine: Popular and Official Perceptions from Balfour to Israeli Statehood ..."
"... This is an excellent summary of the basis in mentality of what is factually a 21st century version of a fascist regime. Even though two political parties and the shell forms of republican government may exist, the reality is that the parties are factions and the way things operate is via conformity and loyalty to an authoritarian power structure. ..."
Many working-class Americans voted for Donald Trump believing he would address their needs,
not those of rich Republicans. But all pols, it seems, end up conforming to their political
group's priorities, as Lawrence Davidson explains.
By Lawrence Davidson
In 1956, William H. Whyte published a book entitled The Organization Man about
America's societal changes in the post-World War II economy. Basing his findings on a large
number of interviews with CEOs of major American corporations, Whyte concluded that, within the
context of modern organizational structure, American "rugged individualism" had given way to a
"collectivist ethic." Economic success and individual recognition were now pursued within an
institutional structure – that is, by "serving the organization."
Whyte's book was widely read and praised, yet his thesis was not as novel as it seemed.
"Rugged individualism," to the extent that it existed, was (and is) the exception for human
behavior and not the rule. We have evolved to be group-oriented animals and not lone wolves.
This means that the vast majority of us (and certainly not just Americans) live our lives
according to established cultural conventions. These operate on many levels – not just
national patriotism or the customs of family life.
What Whyte ran across was the sub-culture of the workplace as followed by those who set
themselves upon a "career path" within a specific organization. The stereotypical examples are
those,
to quote Whyte , "who have left home spiritually as well as physically, to take the vows of
organization life. [They adopt an ethic that] rationalizes the organization's demand for fealty
and gives those who offer it wholeheartedly a sense of dedication."
Today, some private-sector organizations have moved away from the most extreme demands
of such conformity, but some other career lines have not, two examples being the military and
career party politics.
For insight in this we can turn to the sociologist C. Wright Mills , whose famous book
The Power
Elite was published the same year as Whyte's The Organization Man. Mills's
work narrows the world's ruling bureaucracies to government, military and top economic
corporations. T hose who make their careers within these entities, especially the military
and the government, are ideologically conditioned to identify their well-being with the
specific goals of their chosen organizations. That means they must bind themselves not only to
the goals, but also to the ethics of their workplace.
Those who balk are eventually punished and cast out of the organizations. Those who
guide these organizations, and essentially decide how rules and ethics will be interpreted and
applied, are Mills's "power elite."
How this works out in the military is pretty obvious. There is a long tradition of
dedication to duty. At the core of this dedication is a rigid following of orders given by
superiors. This tradition is upheld even if it is suspected that one's superior is
incompetent.
It may come as a surprise to the reader that party politics as practiced by many of the
Western democracies is quite similar. The "power elites" who reside at the top of the so-called
greasy pole, holding positions as the head of ruling and contesting parties, are likely to
demand the same sort of obedience to orders as any military officer.
The Organization Man or Woman in Politics
Running for and holding office in countries like the United States and Canada often requires
one to "take the vows of organization life." Does this support democracy or erode it? Here is
one prescient answer: the way we have structured our party politics has given us "an appalling
political system which is a step-by-step denial of democracy and a solid foundation for a
'soft' dictatorship."
One of the elegant rooms at President Trump's Mar-a-Lago club. (Photo from
maralagoclub.com)
Those are the words of the late Rafe Mair , a Canadian politician, broadcaster,
author and a good friend of this writer. Rafe spent years in Canadian politics, particularly in
his home province of British Columbia, and his experience led him to the conclusion expressed
above. How does this translate into practice?
Rafe
explained it this way : "In a parliamentary [or other form of representative]
democracy the voter transfers his rights to his member of parliament [congressperson, senator
or state legislator] to exercise on his behalf – the trouble is, by running for his
political party the [elected person, in turn, is led to] assign your [the voter's] rights to
the [party] leader for his exclusive use!"
There is no law that makes the elected official do this. However, the inducements to do so
are very powerful.
Leaders of political parties can control their organizations in dictatorial fashion.
They have power to reward or punish their party's cohorts in a fashion that can make or break
careers. For instance, they control the dispersal of party funds from monies for elections
right down to one's office budget; they determine whether a candidate will have to face a
primary challenge; they make all committee assignments; they can promote and demote within the
party ranks.
As Rafe Mair observed, the possibilities for both reward and punishment are almost
endless. In this way elected officials become bound to the diktats of their party's leaders.
They cannot normally vote their conscience or reliably represent their constituency unless
doing so coincides with the desires of their party's leadership.
I believe we are prisoners of a corrupted "democracy."
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- –
July 13, 2017
The Prisoners of "Democracy"
Screwing the masses was the forte of the political establishment. It did not really matter
which political party was in power, or what name it went under, they all had one ruling
instinct, tax, tax, and more taxes. These rapacious politicians had an endless appetite for
taxes, and also an appetite for giving themselves huge raises, pension plans, expenses, and
all kinds of entitlements. In fact one of them famously said, "He was entitled to his
entitlements." Public office was a path to more, and more largesse all paid for by the
compulsory taxes of the masses that were the prisoners of "democracy."
[more info on this at link below] http://graysinfo.blogspot.ca/2017/07/the-prisoners-of-democracy.html
Sam F , October 30, 2017 at 11:42 am
Yes, our ertswhile democracy has been completely corrupted. Thanks to Lawrence Davidson,
William Whyte, C. Wright Mills, and Rafe Mair for this consideration of the systemic
corruption of political parties. The diseases of conformity within party organizations are a
nearly inherent problem of democracy.
The improper influence which determines the policies conformed to by parties is the
central problem, and stems largely from influence of the economic Power Elite, directing the
policies to which the Organization Man must be obedient to be chosen. This distortion can be
eliminated by Amendments to the Constitution to restrict funding of mass media and elections
to limited individual contributions.
Our problem is that we cannot make such reforms because those tools of democracy are
already controlled by oligarchy, which never yields power but to superior force. Talk of
justice and peace is not in their language of might makes right, and has no effect
whatsoever. They yielded to the 1964 Civil Rights Act only because their fear of riots in the
streets led them to pretend that MLK et al had been persuasive.
The foreign wars may be stopped by the defeat, isolation, and embargo of the US by foreign
powers. But within the US, the full price of democracy must again be paid the People of the
US. The oligarchy must be defeated by superior force: only those who deny enforcement to
oligarchy and terrify the rich will bring them to yield any power. That is likely to await
more severe recessions and inequities caused by the selfish and irresponsible rich.
mike k , October 30, 2017 at 3:42 pm
You are exactly right Sam F. Unfortunately time is quickly running out for our corrupt
"civilization." The time to cultivate and practice wisdom has passed. The sad truth is that
our goose is cooked; there will be no cavalry showing up to save us. We are now "eating our
karma" and will reap our just deserts. Not because I or anyone say so, but because implacable
laws of nature will now play out. Dominant intellectual species occupy a precarious position
in planetary evolution, and we are on the verge of a great fall – and all the King's
horses and all the King's men will not be able to put our extincting species together again
..
Sam F , October 30, 2017 at 4:11 pm
Your reply touches a responsive chord, in that humanity seems to have made so little
permanent progress in its million years or so, mostly in its last few hundred years, an
insignificant fraction of planetary history. But the history and literature of temporary
progress lost is significant as the repository of ideas for future democracies, at those rare
moments when they are designed.
Our diseased society is but one tree in the forest of democracies. The US is or will be
like the apparently healthy tree that took down my power lines last night, a pretty red oak
with brilliant autumn leaves, but sideways now and blocking the road. But like the leaves on
that tree, we can see the problem and still hope to be as happy as this year's leaves on
healthier trees.
As in what I like to call the universal mind of humanity, individuals may have foresight
and thoughts beyond their apparent functions, which survive in that greater mind of their
thoughts recorded or just passed along, and in that way their learning is not in vain.
Drew Hunkins , October 30, 2017 at 10:34 am
Trump did nix out the TPP and did desire a rapprochement of sorts with Moscow. He also
regularly asserted that he wanted to re-build American manufacturing in the heartland and
wanted to rein in Washington's footprint across the globe. Of course Trump ultimately
capitulated to the militarist Russophobes. One can only put so much stock in campaign
pronouncements, but he did come off as less bellicose than Killary, that was clear to any
fair minded observer.
Trump's also been a nightmare as it comes to workers' rights in general, consumer and
environmental protections and fair taxation as it relates to regressive vs progressive rates.
He was also an Islamophobe when it comes to Iran and fell right in line with Adelson and the
other ZIonist psychopaths.
The most welcoming aspect of Trump was his desire to make peace with Russia, this has been
completely sabotaged by the deep state militarists. This is the reason the Corkers, Flakes
and much of the establishment mass media browbeat and attack him relentlessly. Most of them
ignore what he actually should be admonished for opting for nuclear brinkmanship instead.
exiled off mainstreet , October 30, 2017 at 11:25 am
This is the best description I have seen about Trump's role.
Bob Van Noy , October 30, 2017 at 10:37 am
Thank you CN and Lawrence Davidson for what I think is a accurate explanation of the
failure of our Democracy. I especially like the reference to C. Wright Mills who is a heroic
character for me. I think Mr. Mill's book on the Power Elite was prescient, as was his
thinking in general. He published a little known book "Listen, Yankee" (1960) that was very
insightful about the then current Cuban Revolution. It seems in retrospect that there was
plenty of warning at the time for America to wake up to the goals of Big Government and Big
Business but it was either successfully repressed or ignored by those who might have made a
difference, like Labor. At any rate, C. Wright Mills died too early, because he seemed
uniquely suited to make a difference. His writing remains current, I'll add a link.
I am a big CW Mills fan too. We have had many warnings – now we are going to
experience the fate of those who ignore wisdom.
tina , October 30, 2017 at 10:31 pm
Hey, college UWM 1984- 1987 Mass Comm, I did not graduate , but we studied Mills, Lewis
Mumford, and my favorite, Marshall McLuhan. Also, first time I was introduced to Todd Gitlin
and IF Stone. While I did not pursue a life in journalism, I so appreciate all those who did
the hard work. I still have all my college required reading books from these people, it is
like a set of encyclopedias, only better. And better than the internet. Keep up the work CN ,
I am not that talented, but what you do is important.
First, let me commend Lawrence Davidson for his selection of two of the most insightful
writers of the sixties to use as a springboard for his perceptive essay. A third(John Kenneth
Galbraith) would complete a trilogy of the brilliant academic social analysis of that time.
Galbraith's masterpiece(The Affluent Society) examined the influence of the heavy emphasis
corporate advertising had on American culture and concluded that the economic/social
structure was disproportionately skewed toward GDP(gross domestic product) at the expense of
educational investment. This was in direct contrast with the popular novels and essays of Ayn
Rand, the goddess of greed whose spurious philosophy had come to epitomize the mindset that
continues to plague the globe with the neoliberal ideals that have been reinvented under many
names over time; i.e. laissez faire, trickle down,the Laffer curve, free market economics and
monetarism.
Zachary Smith , October 30, 2017 at 12:17 pm
Usually such claims are themselves no more than campaign hot air. However, in their
ignorance, voters may well respond to such hot air, and the result can be a jump from the
proverbial frying pan into the fire. U.S. voters seem to have taken just such a leap when
they elected Donald Trump president.
Nowhere in this essay are either of the terms "Hillary" or "Clinton" mentioned. U.S.
voters had the choice of a known evil on the "D" side of the ballot, or another person well
understood to be a shallow, self-centered, rich *****. They were going to end up with an
unqualified person either way the voting went. Quite possibly the nod went to Trump because
1) his promises were surely more believable than those of Clinton and 2) Trump wasn't yet the
known destroyer of entire nations.
Describing the predicament of the voters as "ignorance" just isn't fair when looking at
the overall picture.
mike k , October 30, 2017 at 3:50 pm
Yes. Voters were put in a no win situation. That's why I did not participate in the "show"
election.
Realist , October 31, 2017 at 4:33 am
What were Obama's reasons for failing to take a stand, once elected, on all the promises
he made during his campaigns? He mostly gave away the store to the other side, and insulted
his supporters while doing so. Talk about progressives not getting a "win" even after
carrying the elections. Two terms earlier, the media called the contest one of two
"moderates" between Bush and Gore. If that was "moderation" practiced by Dubya, I need a new
dictionary. Most recent elections have been pointless, especially when the Supreme Court
doesn't allow a complete recount of the votes. In a field of 13(!) primary candidates last
year, the GOP could not provide one quality individual. The Dems cheated to make sure the
worst possible of theirs would get the nomination. I see nothing but mental and moral midgets
again on the horizon for 2020. I don't expect Trump to seek re-election. He will have had a
bellyful should he even survive.
I believe what has happened to all of us is: "The Imposition of a New World Order." This
plan has been helped by puppet politicians. Therefore the question must be asked: "Is There
An Open Conspiracy to Control the World'?
[More info on this at link below] http://graysinfo.blogspot.ca/2014/12/is-there-open-conspiracy-to-control.html
john wilson , October 30, 2017 at 1:00 pm
Stephen: why do you ask the question to which you already know the answer? Yes, we're all
screwed and have been for years. The bankers already control the world and the military make
sure its stays that way.
Very true john wilson. Questions beget answers and information.
cheers Stephen J.
mike k , October 30, 2017 at 3:52 pm
It's like the Purloined Letter by Poe – the truth of our enslavement is so obvious,
that only the deeply brainwashed can fail to see it.
Zachary Smith , October 30, 2017 at 12:48 pm
The parts of The Organization Man I found most interesting were the chapters about
"Testing The Organization Man". The companies were deliberately selecting for people
we currently label Corporate Psychopaths. Whyte suggested memorizing some "attitudes" before
taking one of the tests. Among them:
I loved my father and my mother, but my father a little bit more
I like things pretty much the way they are
I never worry much about anything
I don't care for books or music much
I love my wife and children
I don't let them get in the way of company work
You can substitute any number of things that you won't allow to get in the way of
company work .
Ecology. Laws. Regulations. Integrity. Religion.
"Screw planet Earth. Exxon comes first!" Or "screw Jesus and the horse he rode in on. We
need to cut taxes and balance the budget. People are poor because they're too lazy to get a
job."
mike k , October 30, 2017 at 3:53 pm
Good points. Brainwashing in action revealed.
john wilson , October 30, 2017 at 12:55 pm
Democracy is another word for consensual slavery. In a communist system or a dictatorship
etc you are told you are a slave because you have no voice or choice. In a democracy you do
have a choice and its between one salve master and another. If you vote Democrat you are just
as much a slave to the system as you are if you vote Republican. The possibility of a third
choice which might just free you from your chains, is a fantasy and only there as window
dressing to give democracy some credibility. The term for this dilemma is called being
TOTALLY SCREWED!!
mike k , October 30, 2017 at 3:55 pm
Amen John. You got it right brother.
exiled off mainstreet , October 31, 2017 at 11:01 am
This is an excellent summary of the basis in mentality of what is factually a 21st century
version of a fascist regime. Even though two political parties and the shell forms of
republican government may exist, the reality is that the parties are factions and the way
things operate is via conformity and loyalty to an authoritarian power structure.
"... It's easy to imagine neoliberalism leading to the same despotic conditions in mirror image of the old communist states. Crushing
individuals in the name of Market Rights and neoliberal market philosophy, from an unchecked Marketism. ..."
"... Dictatorship is a bad and an immoral form of government – whether from the left (communists) or the right (Marketists). Hayek
and neoliberals only consider the danger from the left, not from the right. This is moral philosophy, as Adam Smith knew. A technical
claim for efficiency is not a moral claim to justice or the good. There is no moral claim in neoliberalism that withstands examination.
imo. ..."
Economic philosophies come down to questions of morals and ethics: what is 'good' and why; what is 'bad' and why? (These questions
often come down to the philosophical questions about "the one and the many"*)
Some (brief) history of moral philosophy in business, or markets:
"Plato is known for his discussions of justice in the Republic, and Aristotle explicitly discusses economic relations, commerce
and trade under the heading of the household in his Politics. His discussion of trade, exchange, property, acquisition, money
and wealth have an almost modern ring, and he makes moral judgments about greed, or the unnatural use of one's capacities in pursuit
of wealth for its own sake, and similarly condemns usury because it involves a profit from currency itself rather than from the
process of exchange in which money is simply a means. .
"John Locke developed the classic defense of property as a natural right. For him, one acquires property by mixing his labor
with what he finds in nature.7 Adam Smith is often thought of as the father of modern economics with his An Inquiry into the Nature
and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Smith develops Locke's notion of labor into a labor theory of value. In modern times commentators
have interpreted him as a defender of laissez-faire economics, and put great emphasis on his notion of the invisible hand. Yet
the commentators often forget that Smith was also a moral philosopher and the author of The Theory of Moral Sentiments. For him
the two realms were not separate."
-Dr. Richard T. DeGeorge https://www.scu.edu/ethics/focus-areas/business-ethics/resources/a-history-of-business-ethics/
Now to this article:
"The great Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek didn't favor mathematical modeling, but he had clear philosophical models
in his head. One of his most famous statements is related to the slippery road to dictatorships: ."
This is a moral claim or ethical claim: Dictatorships are bad.** Well, I accept that statement. I judge dictatorships bad.
I do not want a dictatorship oppressing me or my fellow citizens for any reason.
Hayek feared oppression from an unchecked left, imo.
Again, from De George:
"Marx claimed that capitalism was built on the exploitation of labor. Whether this was for him a factual claim or a moral condemnation
is open to debate; but it has been taken as a moral condemnation since 'exploitation' is a morally charged term and for him seems
clearly to involve a charge of injustice. Marx's claim is based on his analysis of the labor theory of value, according to which
all economic value comes from human labor." (ibid- from link above)
No doubt the old USSR became despotic, supposedly in the name of ending exploitation of labor. (Gulags?)
Back to Olah's paper and definitions. The following line could be rewritten to fit the Marxist USSR moral claims with no loss
in accuracy.
"But this leads to the main paradox of neoliberalism communism. Its economic system needs a strong state,
even at the expense of constraining democracy, to guarantee property worker rights and the working of the
free market communal, while actively maintaining the rule of neoliberal Marxist social philosophy."
It's easy to imagine neoliberalism leading to the same despotic conditions in mirror image of the old communist states.
Crushing individuals in the name of Market Rights and neoliberal market philosophy, from an unchecked Marketism.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- –
* "The question which haunts the dialectical culture is this: how to have unity without totally undifferentiated and meaningless
oneness? If all things are basically one, the differences are meaningless, divisions false, and definitions are sophistications,
in that the tyranny, or destiny, of oneness is the truth of all being. [my aside: neoliberalism]But, if all things are basically
many, and if plurality is ultimate, then the world dissolves into unrelated particulars and becomes, as some thinkers insist,
not a universe but a multiverse, and every atom is in a sense its own law and being. [communism] The first leads to the breakdown
of differences and the liberty of atomistic individualism and particularity; the second is the breakdown of fundamental law into
nihilism and the retreat of men and their arts into isolated and private universes"
― Rousas John Rushdoony, The One And The Many: Studies In The Philosophy Of Order And Ultimacy
"The great Austrian economist Friedrich Hayek didn't favor mathematical modeling, but he had clear philosophical models in
his head. One of his most famous statements is related to the slippery road to dictatorships: "
Dictatorship is a bad and an immoral form of government – whether from the left (communists) or the right (Marketists).
Hayek and neoliberals only consider the danger from the left, not from the right. This is moral philosophy, as Adam Smith knew.
A technical claim for efficiency is not a moral claim to justice or the good. There is no moral claim in neoliberalism that withstands
examination. imo.
"... The neoliberal mandate quoted above "The point for neoiberalism is not to make a model that is more adequate to the real world,
but to make the real world more adequate to its model" is pure hubris. ..."
"... And also too what if nobody wants to become a worked-to-death entrepreneur with a crappy idea just to make a profit and keep
running the squirrel wheel? We don't have to be a capitalist, socialist, or free market society at all. The only thing we are required
to be is just. Constitutionally. ..."
"... love your commentaries, STO, but are we really avoiding the American imperialism aspect, the "total global military domination"
neocon "Project for A New American Century" aspect of imposing economic exploitation, as described here, by John Perkins: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1IvMLTQ6ew
and here, with regard to Dulles CIA historical documentation?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORapPwla7fs ..can we really be surprised
it has "come home to roost?" ..."
The kleptocrats of the world are struggling to find a workable power sharing solution to keep their rule intact. The power
of the neoliberal order is that it has beguiled the masses into believing that satisfying short term personal wants constitutes
a meaningful social order. The constant churn and turnover of consumer goods is the purpose of life instead of participating in
the construction and maintenance of lasting, stable social institutions and customs. This is the culmination of turning citizens
into consumers. It is a different form of bondage and slavery. The perfect system of enslaving oneself.
The trouble with the neoliberal order its that the old tools in maintaining its power and relevance are reaching limits. As
technology democratizes the use of force, it is more difficult to impose ones will. Also, as the weapons become more devastating,
their use would instantly disrupt the entire network supporting the political structure. Imagine the consequence of a nuclear
exchange. Neoliberalism needs an existing social structure upon which to deploy its parasitic ideology and methods. As Michael
Hudson aptly described in his Killing the Host, once that social structure is weakened or destroyed, neoliberalism will be incapable
of functioning. It would have to become naked totalitarianism in order to survive.
The question has always been how do you justify and deal with inequality. With human stupidity, climate change, and planetary
resource depletion bearing down on every society, how that question is answered rises to the fore and cannot be papered over with
greater reams of propaganda. It seems we are once again on the verge of a truly Revolutionary era- like it or not.
Since the 60s all of our Big Boondoggles like Star Wars were embezzlements. The neoliberal mandate quoted above "The point
for neoiberalism is not to make a model that is more adequate to the real world, but to make the real world more adequate to its
model" is pure hubris.
And it has finally run its course by serving us all up a big fat mess. It is very encouraging to see this essay cite so many
recent analysts. It's beginning to look like critical mass.
Most of us are thinking about the stock market these days and anticipating a downturn if not a crash. But what if they triggered
a crash and nobody came? What if the stock market just stagnates and sits there?
The only buyer these days is the Fed but the Fed might refuse to "expand its balance sheet". And in perfect circular logic,
this prevents the stock market from crashing because nobody's buying. And where does this leave neoliberal economies and their
governments? It will be a tad embarrassing.
And also too what if nobody wants to become a worked-to-death entrepreneur with a crappy idea just to make a profit and
keep running the squirrel wheel? We don't have to be a capitalist, socialist, or free market society at all. The only thing we
are required to be is just. Constitutionally.
love your commentaries, STO, but are we really avoiding the American imperialism aspect, the "total global military domination"
neocon "Project for A New American Century" aspect of imposing economic exploitation, as described here, by John Perkins:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j1IvMLTQ6ew and here,
with regard to Dulles CIA historical documentation?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ORapPwla7fs
..can we really be surprised it has "come home to roost?"
"... Interesting point. Von Mises was born in 1881, so his formative years were definitely under Habsburg rule. Hayek was younger,
born in 1899, so he started out under the Habsburg thumb, too. Rand is a little more complex. She was born in 1905, and came to the
U.S. in 1926, so she experienced both Tsarist absolutism, Communist absolutism, and sheer chaos. ..."
"... As you point out, none of the three had any early experience with democracy. ..."
As flora points out in yesterday's George Monbiot/Gaius Publius neoliberalism thread, Hayek and Mieses grew up under Habsburg
absolutism; Ayn Rand grew up under Romanov absolutism. All that they knew of the actual non-theoretical experience of democracy
and free markets came from the insecurity of coming of age under the chaos of the collapse of those two empires during the break
to re-arm during 1919-1939 in what should be seen as a single 1914-1945 European war.
The founders of neoliberalism appear in these descriptions to suffer for a nostalgia for pre-war absolutism that self-interested
western capitalists have been happy anoint themselves to fill. Their alien neoliberal ideology is nothing but absolutist-nostalgic
garbage, shoved down the throats of its victims via simplistic but well-funded propaganda. Neoliberalism's false premise of the
benevolence of the absolutism of wealth is quite literally the road to serfdom for the rest of humanity.
Interesting point. Von Mises was born in 1881, so his formative years were definitely under Habsburg rule. Hayek was younger,
born in 1899, so he started out under the Habsburg thumb, too. Rand is a little more complex. She was born in 1905, and came to
the U.S. in 1926, so she experienced both Tsarist absolutism, Communist absolutism, and sheer chaos.
As you point out, none of the three had any early experience with democracy.
"... I also share a similar outlook on human society and have always found the classical and neoliberal hagiography of entrepreneurs
risible from the very moment I started to acquaint myself with this pseudo-science called economics. ..."
I found this post very confusing and it stimulated what to me is a confusing maelstrom of comments. I'll stick with the title
of this post rephrasing it as "How Economic Theories Serve the Power Elite". I don't believe the Rich and Big Business are equivalent
to the entirety of the Power Elite but I do believe they have achieved a degree of prominence -- perhaps as a result of sponsoring
Neoliberalism. I think of Neoliberalism as an ideology rather than a school of economic theories. So I should rephrase the title
again as "How Ideologies Serve the Power Elite."
I believe Phillip Mirowski captures the most complete and accurate depiction of Neoliberal Ideology. I also believe the C.
Wright Mills and his successor G. William Domhoff have captured the essential structures of Political Power in their characterization
of the Power Elite.
So -- How do Ideology and Political Power interact? What is their dynamic? Altandmain pointed to a very troubling paragraph
in the Michal Kalecki essay in yesterday's comments. Looking at that essay once more I am troubled also by its conclusion. Kalecki
concludes the potential for a rise of Fascism -- as in the political/economic definition of the term -- in 1943 America was slight
and would be mitigated by the progressive politics in sway during those times. I would argue that the Ideology of Nazi Fascism
achieved dominion over the existing Power Elites in Germany [as well as the business interests in the US who supplied money and
expertize to the German Reich]. I also believe the Ideology of Soviet Communism achieved dominion over the Power Elites in Russia.
In both cases Ideology drove the State toward horrendous actions I cannot reconcile as providing any service to a Power Elite.
The Power Elites of much of the world embrace and bolster the Ideologies of Neoliberalism using them as tools to consolidate
their power and line their pockets. What is the chance Neoliberalism might cast off its leash and what kind of world might we
see as a result?
Does the ascendance of an Ideology represent a cusp -- a singularity -- not well accounted for in the structural analysis of Political
Power?
It may be time to revisit the socialist calculation debate of the mid-1930 where, over a period of vears, von Mises and von
Hayek debated socialist economists like Oskar Lange and A.P. Lerner.
Mises argued that capitalism allowed for a much broader participation in decision-making than that permitted by the cult of
nationalization and planning. At that time much of the Left chose to ignore this critique by pointing to the evidence of capitalist
failure and apparent Soviet success in rehabilitating the Soviet economy and embarking on a road to industrialization.
Lange responded to Mises's challenge by conceding that planning, even carried out by the most democratic of governments would
lack proper economic criteria and that to prevent a relapse into more authoritarian solutions, socialist planning authorities
would need to develop a simulated market with a system of shadow prices that could be used to compare different paths to development
Hayek, in the early 1940s, further developed the Austrian critique through his argument that collectivist ownership would erase
responsibility for investment decisions making it impossible to accurately assess the responsibility for mistakes.
Hayek also pointed to the fragmented and dispersed character of economic knowledge, and as as Mirowski has argued in his new
book "The Knowledge We Have Lost in Information,"– managed to establish the first commandment of neo-liberalism "that markets's
don't so much exist to allocate given physical resources so much as to integrate and disseminate something called knowledge."
and " that the market ceased to look like a mechanical conveyor belt and instead began to take on the outlines of a computer."
Mirowski adds that It was this new image of markets as superior information processors that has apparently swept everyone along
from-neoclassical theorists to market socialists."
Is it true that the Austrian critique can only be met by a case for socialist self-management and .public enterprise that bases
itself on the dispersed character of economic knowledge and refuses the tempting delusion of a totally planned economy?
How does the Left today respond to the Hayek/Mises arguments of the 1940s, with their attempted vindication of entrepreneurship,
risk-taking, innovation and the need to make economic agents responsible in the use of resources?
by historical documentation of what has come of their own postulations:
(Monbiot):
"Neoliberalism sees competition as the defining characteristic of human relations. It redefines citizens as consumers, whose
democratic choices are best exercised by buying and selling, a process that rewards merit and punishes inefficiency. It maintains
that "the market" delivers benefits that could never be achieved by planning.
Attempts to limit competition are treated as inimical to liberty. Tax and regulation should be minimised, public services should
be privatised. The organisation of labour and collective bargaining by trade unions are portrayed as market distortions that impede
the formation of a natural hierarchy of winners and losers. Inequality is recast as virtuous: a reward for utility and a generator
of wealth, which trickles down to enrich everyone. Efforts to create a more equal society are both counterproductive and morally
corrosive. The market ensures that everyone gets what they deserve.
We internalise and reproduce its creeds. The rich persuade themselves that they acquired their wealth through merit, ignoring
the advantages – such as education, inheritance and class – that may have helped to secure it. The poor begin to blame themselves
for their failures, even when they can do little to change their circumstances."
("neoliberalism" has been u$ed to destabilize relative economic and social stability of FDR "New Deal" 60+ years )
"How does the Left today respond ?" Very good question! I would add to that "How does the Left respond to the Market as an
epistemology?"
I'll attempt a half-assed answer to the question of " attempted vindication of entrepreneurship, risk-taking, innovation and
the need to make economic agents responsible in the use of resources?" [The question I posed is highly problematic for me. Once
I accepted Mirowski's assertion that Neoliberals really truly believe this nonsense of the Market as an information processor
-- an arbiter of the Truth -- I was flummoxed. I cannot argue with what to me is absurd. However Mirowski convincingly argues
that addressing the central absurdity of the Neoliberal Ideology is crucial to any argument with its true believers.]
I'm very old fashioned I admit. I believe humankind has a number of personality types each suited to select and fill various
niches in society. There are builders and makers of things. There are those who empathize and care for others. There are those
who like to grow things and raise and care for animals. There are those who invent and make new things and think new ways. There
are those who teach. There are those who conserve -- and those who break away and cast out in new directions -- pathfinders. There
are those who like to decide and direct as well as those quite happy to follow reasonable direction. This is the merest thumbnail
sketch but you should see the flesh of a very old concept of human society.
The entrepreneur is but one more type of individual in human society. Entrepreneurs are neither special not specially deserving
of acclaim or riches. However what they do is useful. Society benefits by sharing a small portion of resources to entrepreneurs
while also absorbing some of their risks of failure so that both gain. If an entrepreneur achieves success that benefits society
and there is little cost in sharing a somewhat greater part of that gain with the entrepreneur as an encouragement. I have met
and known some I regard as "true" entrepreneurs. They did indeed hope to make a financial gain from their efforts and risk --
but that was NOT what motivated them. That was not their core.
The classic Liberal notion that an entrepreneur deserves and has right to all of the gain from their actions is very difficult
for me to argue. Like the Neoliberal notion of the Market as epistemology this Liberal notion strikes me as an absurdity. I am
again flummoxed.
the "entrepreneur" (Ernst Becker's "innovator" – "Structure of Evil") has at his disposal great social contract, supply of
"the commons" to base his agency upon. He is completely aware of this. That he refuses indulge, evaluate, or socially consider
said reality, defines actual intention.
I also share a similar outlook on human society and have always found the classical and neoliberal hagiography of entrepreneurs
risible from the very moment I started to acquaint myself with this pseudo-science called economics.
"... I believe discussion of Neoliberalism is very much like discussion of Global Warming. "Weedy" or not, "academic" or not both discussions require transit through some difficult concepts and technical depth. In the case of Global Warming discussions you either come to grips with some complicated climate science or you end up discussing matters of faith drawn from popular "simplifications". In the case of Neoliberalism the discussion necessarily enters a region which requires attention to fine details which when followed to their end tend to have deep and broad implications. ..."
"... The concept of a Thought Collective greatly aids understanding the particularly slippery nature of Neoliberalism as a term for discussion. That slippery nature is no accident. The Market as a theory of knowledge -- an epistemology -- makes apparent the philosophical even "religious" extent of Neoliberal thinking. ..."
"... I prefer Wendy Brown's definition of neoliberalism. It is not simply a commitment to capitalism or to markets, she argues, but an effort to transform all spheres of human life in ways that render them amendable to economic calculation. ..."
"... But "economic calculation" still understates the post-modern condition and tends toward looking for an outside origin, like Hayek/Friedman. Neoliberalism is something we are doing to ourselves, and Foucault's biopolitics makes this clear. You just don't separate the economic from the social and political. ..."
"... Twitter and Facebooks "likes and dislikes" are a form of (social) capital accumulation. Financialization has become ascendant because labour productivity is no longer measurable, and they need "fictitious" numbers to maintain hierarchy. ..."
"... Marxists understand that Hayek-Friedman neoliberalism is just another stage in the real subsumption of labor and completion of globalized capitalism. It is just liberalism after capitalism has finally destroyed traditionalism, nationalism, religion etc. ..."
I believe discussion of Neoliberalism is very much like discussion of Global Warming.
"Weedy" or not, "academic" or not both discussions require transit through some difficult
concepts and technical depth. In the case of Global Warming discussions you either come to
grips with some complicated climate science or you end up discussing matters of faith drawn
from popular "simplifications". In the case of Neoliberalism the discussion necessarily
enters a region which requires attention to fine details which when followed to their end
tend to have deep and broad implications.
In the interview referenced by this post Phillip Mirowski asserts Neoliberals believe the
Market is an information processor which "knows" more than you or I could ever know. He also
introduces the concept of a Thought Collective -- which he states he adapted from writings of
Ludwig Fleck related to describing a method for study and explanation of the history of
Science. I believe both these "weedy" "academic" distinctions are key to understanding
Neoliberalism and distinguishing it from Neoclassical economics and Libertarianism. The
concept of a Thought Collective greatly aids understanding the particularly slippery nature
of Neoliberalism as a term for discussion. That slippery nature is no accident. The Market as
a theory of knowledge -- an epistemology -- makes apparent the philosophical even "religious"
extent of Neoliberal thinking.
Two recent papers by Phillip Mirowski tackle the difficulties in defining and discussing
Neoliberalism. They are both "weedy" and "academic" and unfortunately help little in
addressing the issue RabidGhandhi raised at the root of the lengthy thread beginning the
comments to this post.
"The Political Movement that Dared not Speak its own Name: The Neoliberal Thought
Collective Under Erasure" 2014
[https://www.ineteconomics.org/research/research-papers/the-political-movement-that-dared-not-speak-its-own-name-the-neoliberal-thought-collective-under-erasure]
"This is Water (or is it Neoliberalism?)" 2016 -- this is a response to critics of the
previous paper.
[https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/this-is-water-or-is-it-neoliberalism]
There have been several oblique references to this story -- so I'll repeat it since I only
recently ran across it.
There are these two young fish swimming along, and they happen to meet an older fish
swimming the other way, who nods at them and says, "Morning, boys, how's the water?" And
the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other
and goes, "What the hell is water?"
I am afraid that little story says volumes about the problem RabidGhandhi raised. I
believe remaining "weedy" and "academic" is the very least service we might do to discussing
Neoliberalism and when arguing topics related to Neoliberalism -- and probably the least
damage.
Phillip Mirowski approach is not the only approach and it has its flaws. IMHO he
exaggerates differences between neoliberal doctrine and neo-classical economics.
I went to the site you recommended and read through the very lengthy discussion of
Neoliberalism as Trotskyism for the rich. I believe the title of that discussion makes a
reasonable summary of the definition of Neoliberalism you prefer and propose: Neoliberalism
is Trotskyism for the rich. While there may be some groups in which this definition might be
a useful formula for continuing discussion I doubt it would be of much use in discussing
Neoliberalism in general.
Neoliberalism is slippery enough without bringing in a can-O-worms like Trotskyism -- and
as I am not a Soviet style Marxist nor a student of Marxism and only vaguely familiar with
the Russian revolutions the metaphor is as meaningless to me as a metaphor based on the
gang-of-four with references to Maoism.
I disagree with your view that Mirowski exaggerates the differences between Neoliberal
doctrine and Neoclassical economics. I don't recall the source but I do recall one of
Mirowski's writings or videos did identify how Neoclassical economics is drifting toward
Neoliberalism. Although both disciplines might advocate similar policies they differ in how
they arrive at those policies. And I believe it Neoclassical economists think of economics at
a tool for conducting policy while Neoliberals view their doctrines as guides for policy.
Mirowski -- at least as I read his paper -- tends to avoid making a formulaic definition
of Neoliberalism and instead emphasizes what he views as its key doctrines. Those doctrines
are what distinguishes Neoliberalism.
I prefer Wendy Brown's definition of neoliberalism. It is not simply a commitment to
capitalism or to markets, she argues, but an effort to transform all spheres of human life in
ways that render them amendable to economic calculation.
But "economic calculation" still understates the post-modern condition and tends
toward looking for an outside origin, like Hayek/Friedman. Neoliberalism is something we are
doing to ourselves, and Foucault's biopolitics makes this clear. You just don't separate the
economic from the social and political.
Twitter and Facebooks "likes and dislikes" are a form of (social) capital
accumulation. Financialization has become ascendant because labour productivity is no longer
measurable, and they need "fictitious" numbers to maintain hierarchy.
Jodi Dean
calls this the era of "Communicative Capitalism" wherein value creation has been democratized
and we are ruled by the "circulation of commodified affect."
This is brutal. We create value when we like something or someone. We commodify it when we
attempt to justify our affections in social settings and produce discourse to do so. It
circulates when other people agree and spread the episteme. Why is it "Capitalism?" Because
Facebook extracts surplus from your affections and discourse. Sociality and sociability are
now major profit centers.
That's like everything, folks. Everything. Late-capitalism or neoliberalism is at least
fast becoming a global totality without an outside or margin.
I come at this from a Marxist perspective, and so am very skeptical of liberalism.
Neo-liberalism is simply liberalism after the last vestiges of traditionalist communitarian
have disappeared.
I usually like Gaius Publius, but I don't like this article. Recently the French union
reaction to Macron's labor reforms has the slogan to the effect that "We don't want that
liberalism."
To understand neo-liberalism, you have to a) use the European meaning of liberalism,
especially since the founders were European, b) you also have to connect the word with the
full spectrum of what is "liberalism" as developed in the Early modern period by Hume, Locke,
Smith, the American founders, John Stuart Mills, etc. Remember, during their times, both
Burke and John C Calhoun were considered exemplary liberals. (See Domenico Losurdo.)
Neo-liberalism is no more limited to economics and markets than liberalism was.
Neo-liberalism/liberalism, besides the right to property or the fruits of your labor (Locke
also Marx) also includes the full panoply of rights and privileges (at least in theory)
included in the Bill of Rights and the extension of those over time, and the right to
property and market competition are inextricably connected to the other rights (free press,
freedom to associate, gun rights, national self-determination, freedom from searches, etc).
Inextricably, they cannot be separated.
Including individualistic rights over your body, for instance. The right to an abortion,
gay marriage, freedom of choice, even the popularization of tattoos developed at the same
time as the ascension of economic neoliberalism, which is inextricably connected to the
"liberalization" of the social spheres.
Which is why it is the ocean we swim in and why it is so hard to fight and why Democrats
and centrists and the identitarian "Left" dislike the word so much. Neoliberalism is just
liberalism on steroids. Those who dislike the word want to de-liberalize (some of ) the
markets and limit (some) property rights while retaining most of the individualism that
liberalism allows. They don't want to be socialists.
Marxists understand that Hayek-Friedman neoliberalism is just another stage in the
real subsumption of labor and completion of globalized capitalism. It is just liberalism
after capitalism has finally destroyed traditionalism, nationalism, religion etc.
hmmmnnn while this, from article can be so defined:
"With their help, he began to create what Daniel Stedman Jones describes in Masters of the
Universe as "a kind of neoliberal international" [a term modeled on "the Communist
International]: a transatlantic network of academics, businessmen, journalists and activists.
The movement's rich backers funded a series of thinktanks which would refine and promote the
ideology. Among them were the American Enterprise Institute, the Heritage Foundation, the
Cato Institute, the Institute of Economic Affairs, the Centre for Policy Studies and the Adam
Smith Institute. They also financed academic positions and departments, particularly at the
universities of Chicago and Virginia."
FDR regulated capitalism, entirety of western "social democracies", stand in contrast
(some might say, thankfully)
For one of the strongest early analyses of the development of neoliberalism, see
Foucault's 1978-79 Collège de France lectures, "The Birth of Biopolitics" (English
translation 2008). The entire year is an extended review of and commentary on the the
development of liberalism, or in Foucault's terms "liberal governmentality," and in
particular of neo-liberalism
"... The experience of every modern democratic nation-state proves that libertarianism is incompatible with democracy ..."
"... Libertarianism is the version of neoliberalism used to get teenagers hooked on markets. ..."
"... The only ray of hope is that neoliberalism seems, by stripping the vast majority of people of income and assets, to be wildly successful at suppressing aggregate demand and so contains the seeds of its own demise. Maybe. ..."
"... Too bad Mises and Hayek didn't live in the UK or France or US or Canada or other long established democracy; ..."
"... nobody's marching in the streets or even making a fuss about it ..."
"Just deserts for predators and prey" – yes, very much this. I remember talking with
my father about a year ago in a quasi-philosophical sense about where I felt western society
had gone wrong. I could not quite adequately express the essence of my thoughts beyond "a
fundamental devaluation of people as individuals."
I think it applies to foreign policy as well – however you want to put things. The
ghouls/neocons/neolibs decide to start some regime change war somewhere. Hundreds of
thousands/millions of the wrong people die. But the pipeline (or whatever) gets built on the
correct parts of the map. No harm no foul and it's on to the next part of the giant "Risk"
board.
Come to think, I actually quite like "ghoul" as a catch-all term for all these evil
bastards. Can't remember where I first saw that – might have been here – but it
fits.
A good article on the neoliberal links to fascism: Why
libertarians apologize for autocracy The experience of every modern democratic nation-state proves that libertarianism is
incompatible with democracy by Michael Lind.
Libertarianism is the version of neoliberalism used to get teenagers hooked on
markets.
What is neoliberalism? A market-based ideology willing to employ fascism to impose the
conditions necessary to establish the market state. (ie, throwing people out of helicopters.)
The state is co-opted to ensure rule of the Market.
The value of everything, human life-included, is to be decided by the Market. (Except when
the outcome is not favorable to the elite. Hence the need to takeover the state.)
The market state will impose Freedom™. Freedom™ means the law of the jungle
and consequently many rebellious serfs, er, citizens unhappy with Freedom™. (Another
reason the state will be needed – to reimpose Freedom™. That is, prison or maybe
helicopter trips.)
In 2015, he discovered that he was enrolled in a particular type of ineligible payment
plan and would need to start his decade of payments all over again, even though he had been
paying more each month than he would have if he had been in an eligible plan. Because of
his 8.25 percent interest rate, which he could not refinance due to loan rules, even those
higher payments weren't putting a dent in his principal. So the $70,000 or so that he did
pay over the period amounted to nothing, and he'll most likely pay at least that much going
forward.
So this is who we are now. For all sorts of reasons that made perfect sense at the time,
we built additional repayment programs onto existing complexity onto well-meaning
forgiveness overseen by multiple layers of responsible parties. And once that was done, Mr.
Shafer, teacher of shelter dwellers and street kids and others whom fellow educators failed
to reach, wasted a small fortune and will now shovel another one into the federal
coffers.
Which leaves just one more question: If this is who we are, is it who we actually want
to be?
Apparently, yes.
The only ray of hope is that neoliberalism seems, by stripping the vast majority of people
of income and assets,
to be wildly successful at suppressing aggregate demand and so contains the seeds of its own
demise. Maybe.
The only ray of hope is that neoliberalism seems, by stripping the vast majority of
people of income and assets, to be wildly successful at suppressing aggregate demand and so
contains the seeds of its own demise. Maybe.
Exactly.. once the majority are stripped of their assets and have to commit most of their
income to rent, there *should* be no growth. Unless the entire system is running around asset
inflation, which it is now. But that cannot last forever.
The only ray of hope is that neoliberalism seems, by stripping the vast majority of
people of income and assets,
to be wildly successful at suppressing aggregate demand and so contains the seeds of its
own demise. Maybe.
I don't think that this is what They are thinking. The 'make it up on volume' is a
retailer strategy, our MOTU are playing well above wholesale and actually are not in the
goods-transferring biz at all. Finance, you know. Long before we are all gone, eaten alive or
whatever, They will be turning their sights on where the real money is -- each other. Perhaps
a few corners of life will survive, and I am curious as to what the new life forms, if any,
that emerge out of this sea of pesticides, herbicides, garbage, and too much CO2 will be.
Academic question, of course. Perhaps this is why there is no evidence of other intelligent
life in the universe? That's too depressing, I'm gonna go make some cinnamon toast.
To create a feudal aristocracy using pseudoscientific propaganda. The government uses a
combination of tax policy, deregulation, the destruction of legal protections (ex: labour
laws), privatization, free trade, mass immigration, propaganda, and frankly, blunt force
where needed to slowly dismantle the middle class.
The end result is a society that looks something like Russia in the 1990s or perhaps South
Africa, with very high inequality along with high multiculturalism.
Enforcement is not consistent. For example, low and middle class workers are expected to
compete in terms of lowest wages and poorest job security with the developing world.
Meanwhile, the very rich can do whatever they want and not pay much taxes. Intellectual
property is another example of this inconsistency, and allows corporations to rent seek on
their IP, itself often a product of taxpayer funded R&D or bought from a small company
(witness how big pharmaceutical companies are guilty of both of these).
Very true, speaking specifically of South Africa where I live, your analysis of the
situation hits the mark. We have an openly neoliberal opposition party that fashions itself
as a pro-poor party yet even a cursory glance at its policy stance reveals where the dictates
it shouts regularly from its benches originate, and whose interests it represents (it's
certainly not the poor). It campaigns heavily for the gutting of labour laws while advocating
for the destruction of local industries by coddling up to foreign investors and free trade
cheerleaders. Yet nobody seems to see the contradiction, because, as Altandmain says above,
it's all about building a narrative through propaganda with the media as an echo chamber (if
people think media ownership in the US is concentrated, they must try visiting SA). And the
trickle down economics myth is very much the dominant narrative down here, with the rich
being worshipped as demigods who hold the fate of the country in their hands, and as such,
must have carte blanche to do as they please
Intellectual capture of the general populace by co-opting (read buying) academia and the
msm to extol the virtues of neoliberalism is what allows its pernicious effects to spread
like wildfire. Credentialism and the pretentious grounding of neoliberal discourse in
pseudoscientific rigor discourages critique from ordinary, "non-expert" people and co-opts
even these lemmings (queitly being marched to their demise) to defend its ideological
soundness. The question i've always had is this: how do countries get grassroots movements
against neoliberalism going when the precursor to success against it seems to be eliminating
basic and functional illiteracy among the general population about its inner workings and the
instruments it uses to legitimize its evils (e.g. propaganda)? Outside of niche communities
like here at NC, most people seem to care more about the Kardashians than equipping
themselves with the chops (financial, technical etc) to call BS on all this. And this seems
to be a war that will require numbers to win, but how to get those numbers when so many
people appear to be so enchanted by the supposed virtues of neoliberalism ("getting ahead",
ruthless competition etc).
PS: Some of us here at NC live in developing countries and the tentacles of this ideology
have proven to be no respector of borders, as such, imho said grassroots movements would
necessarily have to be transnational by spreading beyond the heartlands of global capitalism
(Western Europe & US/North America).
Great article. Now when I hear TV/Journalist commentators suggest the nation-state is
useless and democracy is obsolete I will know their point of reference and unspoken
arguments. I will also listen for what they do not report on or talk about. 'The dog that did
not bark in the night.' Thanks for posting. Two things:
1.
"Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek. Both exiles from Austria, "
Austria in 1938 had no deep-rooted democratic history. It was part of the aristocratic
Austro-Hungarian Empire until 1918, when that collapsed post WWI. Hayek and Mises grounded
their philosophy in their post-empire/post-autocratic-rule chaotic national experiences
– unstable newly imposed democratic societies which previously had a long history of
autocratic rule and a bad or poorly done recent (post WWI) transition to democracy. E.g. Post
WWI Weimar Germany was chaos, as reported by on-the-ground correspondent William Shirer.
Mises and Hayek also applied their ideas to well-established older democratic nations. In
context, their philosophy did not apply to the well-established democracies. If anything,
Mises and Hayek assumed a strong central govt inevitably meant a 'strong man' govt and not a
democratic govt, it seems.
2.
" Through the IMF, the World Bank, the Maastricht treaty and the World Trade Organisation,
neoliberal policies were imposed – often without democratic consent – on much of
the world."
The IMF and WTO and neoliberalism itself have become a 'strong man' or 'strong committee'
supra-govt rule, imo. Neoliberalism's economic application has lead to the very conditions of
weakening democracy and subjecting people to 'strong man/committee rule' Mises and Hayek
tried to prevent by weakening the power of the nation-state, without regard to differences in
nation-state governments and polity.
shorter neolib args:
All* strong govts lead to despotism. (*All? nope. false premise)
Weakening the power of all govt's will guard against despotism. (Really? nope. some forms
of govt are a strong guard against despotism. false premise)
Replacing govt functions with market functions has no risk. (nope. see astronomical price
increases in privatized govt services and deregulated markets. epi-pen?)
Therefore, weakening central govts and replacing their functions with private market
solutions will be both risk free and guard against depotism. (False conclusion from false
premises. And there are plenty of financially despotic markets.)
Too bad Mises and Hayek didn't live in the UK or France or US or Canada or other long
established democracy; not perfect, always struggling to increase the franchise, but more
accountable to citizens than markets.
Substitute "neoliberal" for "Libertarian" and note the operations of "government-like
organizations" that already are systems of systems of predators and parasites that cooperate
(while snarling and snapping and biting at each other) to kill and loot and drive the rest of
us I guess "libertarians," whatever that term means any more, might be part of the Enabling
Class that provides "policy cover" and arguments in support of the rapine that is in play
Thanks very much for this link. I just read the entire series.
Chilling.
Normally I'd dismiss this sort of fevered certainty as lost-cause deadender writing.
The series was written 6 years ago; before the Kansas Real Time Experiment; Obamacare ACA
insurance-companies-will-sort-this-out; proposed TPP and TTIP and ISDS (arbitration and
insurance companies will sort it all out). Now talk of sea-steading and "island" cities and
organized voter suppression.
Chilling developments when placed against libertarian, anti-democratic, rise-of-the-supermen
manifestos.
I've just listened to the Mirowski interview* linked in the main article. According to
Mirowski it is the neo-classicals who want a weakened national govt, not the neo-liberals. So
I've confused the two and need a rethink.
Mirowski says (paraphrasing) the neo-liberals " changed the idea of what a market is " and
believe that " the market is a super information processor that knows more than any human
ever could ." (My aside: This is irrational, but that doesn't stop them.) Therefore
Mere humans should be subordinate to the market because the individual can never know as much
as the market and cannot even know himself outside of his relation to the market. (This is
also irrational and sounds despotic to me. Sounds like saying a person should be subordinate
to computer programs.)
Neo-liberals, therefore, want a strong national govt that they control to promote and expand
markets and the market ideology/idolatry everywhere. (Where have I heard that sort of
quazi-political/philosophical argument used before?)
* starts at the 6 min mark. 18 min mark "super information processor"
Too bad Mises and Hayek didn't live in the UK or France or US or Canada or other
long established democracy;
They did. von Hayek spent the 30s and 40s in the UK, the 50s in the US and retired to West
Germany. von Mises went to Switzerland in 1934 then the US in 1940 and stayed there. They
were, of course, esconced in academia (ie. in their own minds) the whole time.
here is a bit of the antidote–discussed 10/24 in NC regarding the efforts to restore
Puerto Rico–
Farmers' groups are now calling for the proliferation of community-controlled agricultural
cooperatives that would grow food for local consumption. Like the renewable energy
micro-grids, it's a model that is far less vulnerable to supply-chain shocks like hurricanes
-- and it has the additional benefit of generating local wealth and increasing
self-sufficiency.
As with the solar-powered generators, Puerto Rico's farmers aren't waiting for the emergency
to subside before beginning this transition. On the contrary, groups like Boricuá
Organization for Ecological Agriculture have "agroecology brigades" traveling from community
to community to deliver seeds and soil so that residents can begin planting crops
immediately. Katia Avilés-Vázquez, one of Boricuá's farmers, said of a
recent brigade: "Today I saw the Puerto Rico that I dream being born. This week I worked with
those who are giving it birth."
The CoOperative movement emerged in the USA at the end of the 19th century to provide
funding and resources where there was plenty of need but not too much profit to be made.
Isn´t this one of the problems with -isms in general? Communism also has a thousand
meanings depending on who you talk with. Could be everything between the theoretical
Marx-Engels version and the practical realities of Soviet Union/China and other countries
claiming to be "communists".
It seems to me that neoliberalism has been so efficient in establish itself thanks to:
1) being implemented by military forces = the rest of the world outside Europe/US, and now
being maintained through the thorough militarization of western societies: police, censorship
etc.
2) not focusing on being and -ism/ideology but on concrete advises/policies presented in
numbers/graphs (the mathematification of economics)
3) useful idiots in the form of the identity politicians: if they would have been focused and
using their vast amount of energy on countering the maths of economics (before Steve
Keen´s Debunking Economics), instead of counting how many oppressed minority identities
can dance on the head of white middle-aged man, it would have been much more difficult to
implement the neoliberal policies. Or it would have at least accelerated the militarization
of western societies so that the clash between class interests will start, as they always
do.
Maybe better to focus on concrete stuff in arguments, like,
– public ownership of energy and infrastructure in order to guarantee all citizens
access. E.g. Sweden privatized energy production and distribution in the 90s. During one
winter there wasn´t electricity enough to heat houses because the private companies had
done away with excess capacity. Privatization/neoliberalism = not serving the society with
electricity when the society needs it the most.
– Public healthcare, education etc. Every % of profit a company requires for the
owners, this means the same % less to the citizens
and so on.
OK with most of this, but members of congress and staff don't get free healthcare. Though
members have access to some free services, they and some staff purchase insurance on an ACA
exchange called. Other staff remain on the pre-ACA FEHB program in place for other federal
employees. Both programs are employer (taxpayer) subsidized so they only pay a portion of
their premiums, plus whatever their deductible is. For the ACA policies, to get the premium
subsidy they need to choose a gold plan, so will have about 10% in copays.
Nice exposition of the term, neoliberalism, Gaius. Thank you.
I think I first began seeing the term about eight years ago, right after the financial
meltdown. About five years ago, I proposed writing a series of pieces for a group that had
arisen out of the Denver Occupy movement, kind of an "Ask a Neo-Liberal," column, but most
people had never even heard of the term and when I did a bit of research, I just could not
pin down definitions or examples.
So, how do we begin to counter the main tenets of neoliberalism: glorification of 'the
market' as the arbiter of lives, with the resulting dominance of competition over cooperation
and the atomization and breakdown of social ties; we live in a 'dog eat dog' world, only the
strong survive, self-reliance got me where I am?
Some days I think that this creed is the natural result of a Planet that has exceeded its
carrying capacity of humans. When there were far fewer humans, cooperation and strong social
bonds were the only means of survival. Really. The development of Neo-liberalism is Nature's
way of getting rid of us.
But, Neo-liberalism decrees that the survivors will be, at best, rapacious, aggressive and
materialistic. At worst, they will be socio-paths. It's like the Planet if only jaguars,
vultures and leeches, out of all our animal relatives, survived. Do we want that to happen?
OK, I realize that some of us have just given up and are sitting back to watch the slow
motion disaster unfold.
First, admit that under the current system, the vast majority of us are Prey, and the .01%
are Apex Predators, hunting us down, ripping, squeezing and sucking the life (and our
livelihoods) out of us. How do our animal relatives who are not equipped with claws, sharp
teeth and muscles built for speed, survive?
We run even faster, we develop camouflage and hide, we grow armor, we refine cooperative
social skills and live in enormous colonies, (preferably underground!) where our vast numbers
and ability to mobilize for work and protection provide security, we develop symbiotic
relationships with larger and stronger organisms (although some might label this as
'vichy-ism,') we become almost invisible, yet with a deadly sting or poisonous coating, and
we realize that sometimes we have die so that other members of the group can survive.
And, we realize that the area in which we live, our little eco-system, is crucial to our
survival. We don't mess it up.
"Under a neoliberal regime, everyone gets what they deserve. Big fish deserve their meal.
Little fish deserve their death. And government sets the table for the feast."
How to talk about neoliberalism, which is indeed a mouthful? I was at a dinner last night
of two generations of UofChicago products (as am I). We all agreed that the "Law &
Economics" movement there should be dismissed out of hand as plain stupidity. I think that we
spend too much time imagining that there is some Ideal Marketplace of Ideas in which the good
ideas drive out the bad. And then we come up against Facebook and Twitter. So one way of
talking about it is that the law has to govern markets: Neoliberalism is lawlessness. You can
have law or you can have looting.
And we've certainly seen plenty of lawlessness.
Another way is to call it unconstitutional, if your interlocutor knows the U.S.
Constitution. The U.S Constitution doesn't have much to say about economics, and it doesn't
assume that laissez-faire is a-okay.
Further on it being unconstitutional: The U.S. Constitution brilliantly foresaw the need
for some kind of bureacracy to maintain the government, rather than a claque of courtiers. So
it set up the Post Office–that bureaucratic agent of oppression, Uncle Mises! It called
for a census and a Census Bureau–woe betide us Uncle Milton!
You can either have the U.S. Constitution with its flaws, or you can have people eating
bagels with gold foil and telling you that markets rule our lives? So which is it?
Maybe we should just call neoliberalism Gold-Bagel-ism. The antidote, as mentioned above
in the thread by commentes like marym, is to return to some discussion of our Commonwealth
and what to do to maintain it.
For me, the most effective opener (both in the sense of opening discussion as well as the
listener's mind) is to state that neoliberalism is to nearly everyone in the "developed"
world (and beyond) like water for fish: it's the environment in which we live, and thus
becomes invisible to us. Excellent elaboration from above: it's as if citizens of the USSR
had never heard of the word "communism;" instead it's just how life works.
If we can get this opening across, then the definitions and explanations discussed above
in this thread may be much more effective.
Thank you Gaius for a great post – and a thanks as well are due to the authors of
the good comments. As I've been reading these it occurred to me that perhaps a good
conversation starter would be to ask the person what they thought of Margaret Thatcher's
remark, "There's no such thing as society. There are only individuals and families." You'll
have to wing it from there depending on the responses you get.
I also wonder aloud to them, "Why it is that when individuals do whatever they want it is
called lawlessnes or anarchy, Bad Things, but when corporations do whatever they want it is
considered a Good Thing?"
The roots of neoliberalism in the Mont Pelerin Society is also well covered in MacLean's
Democracy in Chains.
While I like this article, I disagree with the relationship of neoliberals to markets and
to competition. Markets are held up to displace blame for decisions and policies made by men.
The powerful use competition to explain why you deserve less and they deserve more, even when
actual competition is not happening, and they actively work to prevent it.
Predators and prey do not compete for resources. A system that enshrines predation among
humans is not based on a buyer and a seller making a transaction at the efficient price that
maximizes each's utility and produces the best use of society's resources.
Agree, but for most of the people I talk to, that argument comes second. First I try to
demonstrate that NeoLiberalism doing what it *says* it does is bad for us. Once they have
that then I can proceed to 'NeoLiberalism doesn't even do what it says it does'. Although, I
think that your point is a good first argument with small business people, "You mean that you
think that your 5-employee cabinet shop makes you buddies with Elon Musk? (sub whatever rich
guy your would aspire to be)" If the time seems right I might add, "He would have you on
*toast*." If they think about that, they usually get it.
I seldom even get to the point of being able to argue about these issues at all, much less
take people thru the layers of consideration I've gone through over the years to reach my
current model of how the world works.
I have been told that all of the books and weird websites that I read as I study a subject
in depth are evidence that I lack objectivity about it and that people who know what they
know from reading ordinary news have a clearer understanding than I.
"I suppose the neo-liberal philosophy could best be summed up by their rallying cry: the
freedom to choose to own slaves."
"But that doesn't make sense. Freedom to choose is logically incompatible with slavery.
And they never said that."
"Indeed. They would claim to be all for freedom, and against slavery. But if someone was
profiting from owning slaves, they would fight tooth and nail to protect them, because any
attempt at restricting the profits of slavery was seen as an intolerable corruption of the
sacred free market. It was how they operated. Depending on what their rich patrons wanted at
the time, sometimes they were all for free trade between the old nation states, and sometimes
they demanded that the wealthy have the 'freedom' to restrict trade. It did not matter that
what they said made no sense, or was logically incoherent, or at variance with reality. They
never apologized, never explained, but only acted with total arrogance and
self-confidence."
From "Space Battleship Scharnhorst and the Library of Doom."
It makes sense if you believe in freedom to choose how to spend your money. How much
choice you have, and how much choice you deserve to have, is measured fine-grain in dollars
and cents. Other forms of power are deemed illegitimate.
it's sliding-scale individualism, where everyone is on their own, and wealth determines
how much of an individual one is. The more of an individual you are, the more liberty you
have, and liberty should be protected by the state.
I tend to think of "one dollar, one vote" when considering elections and politics; while
at the same time neoliberalism is about interpersonal power without direct regard to the
functioning of the state.
By this I mean that if, for example, Peter Thiel decides to spend his money to destroy
you, and you don't have enough money to prevent it, then you deserve destruction. That's
liberty. You're free to choose to spend your money defending yourself. Or not.
Exactly. People in a democracy have been raised to think that they count as much as the
next person, no matter how rich or poor -- at least I hope that is till happening. Well,
unless they are rich, who think they rightfully account for more. So when I say "one dollar,
one vote" to poor/middle people (in an ironic sense, just so that is clear), they *feel* that
it is not fair. If that catches, I point out that it goes against what they have been taught
about how democracy works. I often bring this up in the context of campaign $$$ and Citizens
United. It opposes the 'if they have the money then it's theirs' argument, aka 'the
aristocratic' and 'it's his bat and ball'.
For a long time now I have tried to reconstruct what it was in 1978 that convinced me it
had become impossible to reform the United States.
Gaius has gotten me closer to a reconstruction of why I determined the only real solution was
to create another nation, and kicked off what I recognize now as my own modeling.
My sense of what difference the goal is makes is a government that is just and fair for all
citizens.
This is not the case in the neoliberal world is it. The goal of the neo-liberal world is to
advance a milder form of scientific socialism, meaning the good people, well spoken well
dressed no matter either in business or academia get the money for lives depicted on TV
shows.
Working class people must become super humans to become educated and properly dressed to be
accepted into a world of plenty and safety.
One thing I appreciate about Russians is a unique love of beauty. It is depressing that
American's whole aesthetic sense revolves around cars and art is of no interest until it is
ultra expensive.
Len Deighton's description of liberalism as developed in the 1840s which went on to mean the
children of the newly enriched engineers who made hand built the Industrial Revolution making
cotton underwear were given the money to for the schools of the old school rich people of
Britain and all the rich people were in finance whether they came from old money or new
money.
So I don't think of neoliberalism as about markets as much as I do think of it as the
complete ascendancy of the parasites of Finance.
Creditors do not write down or write off debts of the working classes. Finance now has been
given the US Treasury. Listening to Minuchin saying on the TV, in fact even seeing a face
saying, "We must let the States Go and they have to make it on their own." Means there is
simply no reason then to put any money by anyone into the US Treasury. The United States is
just a huge military engaged in little and large wars all over the world anyway. Why ought
anyone pay taxes to further the new owner of the Empire, Rome?
Deighton writes that since all the sewing machines and looms were moved to India, by the time
the 19th Century ended Finance had gambled away all of the wealth of the UK.
"I like to play with debt, but it is tricky." Says Trump.
As long as you are the "Loss Payee" bankruptcy is as fine as any sort of success aye? "I
don't pay taxes, I'm smart."
The aim is to lose all the money, then have it all given to you by the Treasury.
There is no citizenship of the World Citizen, or Jet Setter. They don't need any real
citizenship.
For the majority, the nation matters. It may be the only thing they have of any value. The
nation we are in love with it the nation that would go to defeat the Barbary Pirates over the
capture of one US citizen, a stand in for you.
The one we have makes heroes and a President of the parasitical pirates come from
neofeudalism.
In Texas even swords are coming back.
Yves, great article, and loved the interview with Mirowski.
Here's the thing I see Neo-liberalism has done for society as a whole. If I asked you to
"I present 2 humans before you and ask which one has more value to the world, which one, if
there was only one hamburger left to eat, deserves to eat that sandwich, deserves to survive
in a world with limited resources (which is what earth is), how would you go about choosing
which one"? I am saying Neo-liberalism says "look at their wealth". It judges people by how
much money/wealth they have. The only way to judge whether one human should survive over
another is by the amount of money they make.
Jimmy Carter said in 1980 how we are moving as a society to how we rate a man is by the
amount of money he has. If he was the proto-Neo-liberal, then it makes sense.
One of the conceits of neo-liberalism (and I guess capitalism in general) is that how much
wealth one has indicates how much one is owed for one's contribution to society (because
markets allocate resources optimally). Thus the biggest takers are transformed into the
biggest givers.
Neo-liberalism doesn't care or think all that much about it's actions, as long as they are
profitable.
We have this ridiculous never ending series of wars and nobody's marching in the streets
or even making a fuss about it, as we've accepted the premise as business as usual.
It has the feel of the Vietnam War still going in 1982, and nobody cared.
Other countries look at prisons as a necessary evil, whereas we can't have enough of them,
so much so that we allow private companies the right to incarcerate our own citizens.
nobody's marching in the streets or even making a fuss about it
Lessee, last time I recall Big Street Protests was Occupy. They got shut
down , brutally. NoDAPL, similar, even the Trump inauguration protests. Marches not
reported -- they might as well not have happened. But I believe they really, really did
happen.
An older friend was going to Cal State L.A. around 1970, when a good number of the student
body decided to walk onto the nearby 10 freeway and shut it down, as a protest against the
Vietnam War.
We incarcerate so many because it is profitable as jobs program for voters in poor
counties, slave labor for manufacturing, and profitable for corporations/donors.
I believe discussion of Neoliberalism is very much like discussion of Global Warming.
"Weedy" or not, "academic" or not both discussions require transit through some difficult
concepts and technical depth. In the case of Global Warming discussions you either come to
grips with some complicated climate science or you end up discussing matters of faith drawn
from popular "simplifications". In the case of Neoliberalism the discussion necessarily
enters a region which requires attention to fine details which when followed to their end
tend to have deep and broad implications.
In the interview referenced by this post Phillip Mirowski asserts Neoliberals believe the
Market is an information processor which "knows" more than you or I could ever know. He also
introduces the concept of a Thought Collective -- which he states he adapted from writings of
Ludwig Fleck related to describing a method for study and explanation of the history of
Science. I believe both these "weedy" "academic" distinctions are key to understanding
Neoliberalism and distinguishing it from Neoclassical economics and Libertarianism. The
concept of a Thought Collective greatly aids understanding the particularly slippery nature
of Neoliberalism as a term for discussion. That slippery nature is no accident. The Market as
a theory of knowledge -- an epistemology -- makes apparent the philosophical even "religious"
extent of Neoliberal thinking.
Two recent papers by Phillip Mirowski tackle the difficulties in defining and discussing
Neoliberalism. They are both "weedy" and "academic" and unfortunately help little in
addressing the issue RabidGhandhi raised at the root of the lengthy thread beginning the
comments to this post.
"The Political Movement that Dared not Speak its own Name: The Neoliberal Thought
Collective Under Erasure" 2014
[https://www.ineteconomics.org/research/research-papers/the-political-movement-that-dared-not-speak-its-own-name-the-neoliberal-thought-collective-under-erasure]
"This is Water (or is it Neoliberalism?)" 2016 -- this is a response to critics of the
previous paper.
[https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/this-is-water-or-is-it-neoliberalism]
There have been several oblique references to this story -- so I'll repeat it since I only
recently ran across it.
There are these two young fish swimming along, and they happen to meet an older fish
swimming the other way, who nods at them and says, "Morning, boys, how's the water?" And
the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other
and goes, "What the hell is water?"
I am afraid that little story says volumes about the problem RabidGhandhi raised. I
believe remaining "weedy" and "academic" is the very least service we might do to discussing
Neoliberalism and when arguing topics related to Neoliberalism -- and probably the least
damage.
"... Rabid, have you tried the term "market fundamentalists" or "market ideologues" with your three target audiences? Amongst both think tankers and regular folkz, (and possibly in Argentina too!) it is not usual to be happy to be considered a fundamentalist and ideologue, or to be associated too closely with such people. ..."
"... "Market Utopians", what sets NeoLiberalism apart is the faith that markets solve all problems. For markets to exist there must first be "money", a social institution, and "property ", another social institution and an enforcement mechanism mediating between the two. At this point the lack of primacy of markets, their necessary dependence on the prior existence of government leads to the question, "what is good government." This leads to the question of who's freedom good government should be concerned with. ..."
"... This has been my experience, as well. Often the Democrat is a Clinton apologist who can only perceive the term as somehow a slur against their Dear Leader, though they don't understand why. These people are hopeless. They will simply follow any politician with a (D) after their name who can win an election. Win over the rest of the people and such useless tools will just follow, regardless of ideology. ..."
"... "Just deserts for predators and prey" – yes, very much this. I remember talking with my father about a year ago in a quasi-philosophical sense about where I felt western society had gone wrong. I could not quite adequately express the essence of my thoughts beyond "a fundamental devaluation of people as individuals." ..."
"... The experience of every modern democratic nation-state proves that libertarianism is incompatible with democracy ..."
"... What is neoliberalism? A market-based ideology willing to employ fascism to impose the conditions necessary to establish the market state. (ie, throwing people out of helicopters.) The state is co-opted to ensure rule of the Market. The value of everything, human life-included, is to be decided by the Market. (Except when the outcome is not favorable to the elite. Hence the need to takeover the state.) ..."
"... The only ray of hope is that neoliberalism seems, by stripping the vast majority of people of income and assets, to be wildly successful at suppressing aggregate demand and so contains the seeds of its own demise. Maybe. ..."
"... Too bad Mises and Hayek didn't live in the UK or France or US or Canada or other long established democracy; ..."
"... nobody's marching in the streets or even making a fuss about it ..."
For years I've been using the term "neoliberalism" (or sometimes neo-liberalism*) and I'm
always uncomfortable, since it sounds so academic. So I usually add one-phrase definitions and
move on. For example, this from a recent piece
on Puerto Rico :
If neoliberalism is the belief that the proper role of government is to enrich the
rich -- in Democratic circles they call it "wealth creation" to hide the recipients;
Republicans are much more blatant -- then the "shock doctrine" is its action plan.
That's sounds pretty blunt, but it's a true statement, even among academics. See this great
interview (start at about 6:15) with Professor Philip Miroski of the University of Notre
Dame on how modern neoliberals have come to see the role of government in society. It's weedy
but excellent.
I want to offer our readers a better description of neoliberalism though, yet not get into
too many weeds. So consider these exceprts from a longer Guardian
essay by the British writer George Monbiot . (My thanks to Naked Capitalism commenter
nonclassical for the link and the idea for this piece.)
Neoliberalism -- The Invisible Water the West Is Swimming In
We'll start with Monbiot's brief intro, just to set the scope of the problem:
Imagine if the people of the Soviet Union had never heard of communism. The ideology that
dominates our lives has, for most of us, no name. Mention it in conversation and you'll be
rewarded with a shrug. Even if your listeners have heard the term before, they will struggle
to define it. Neoliberalism: do you know what it is?
Ask people to define "neoliberalism," even if they've heard of it, and almost no one can.
Yet the comparison of our governing ideology to that of the Soviet Union's is a good one --
like "communism," or the Soviet Union's version of it, neoliberalism defines and controls
almost everything our government does, no matter which party is in office.
The Birth of Neoliberalism
What is neoliberalism and where did it come from? Monbiot writes:
The term neoliberalism was coined at a meeting in Paris in 1938. Among the delegates were
two men who came to define the ideology, Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek. Both exiles
from Austria, they saw social democracy, exemplified by Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal and the
gradual development of Britain's welfare state, as manifestations of a collectivism that
occupied the same spectrum as nazism and communism.
Neoliberalism is an explicit reaction to Franklin Roosevelt and the welfare state, which by
a quirk of history was called "liberalism" at the time, even though, in the nineteenth century,
"liberalism" had roughly the same meaning that "neoliberalism" has today. In other words, "FDR
liberalism" is in many ways the opposite of classical "liberalism," which meant "liberty
(freedom) from government," and a quirk of history has confused these terms.
Back to Monbiot and Hayek:
In The Road to Serfdom , published in 1944, Hayek argued that government planning,
by crushing individualism, would lead inexorably to totalitarian control. Like Mises's book
Bureaucracy , The Road to Serfdom was widely read. It came to the attention of
some very wealthy people, who saw in the philosophy an opportunity to free themselves from
regulation and tax. When, in 1947, Hayek founded the first organisation that would spread the
doctrine of neoliberalism – the Mont Pelerin Society – it was supported financially
by millionaires and their foundations.
As it evolved, neoliberalism became more strident. Hayek's view that governments should
regulate competition to prevent monopolies from forming gave way – among American
apostles such as Milton
Friedman – to the belief that monopoly power could be seen as a reward for
efficiency.
Note the mention of Milton Friedman above. Neoliberalism is a bipartisan ideology, not just
a Clintonist-Obamist one.
Democrats, Republicans and Neoliberalism
As Monbiot explains, for a while neoliberalism "lost its name" and was more or less a fringe
ideology in a world still dominated by the ideas of John Maynard Keynes and Keynesian
economics. When neoliberalism later came back strong in the Republican Party, it wasn't called
"neoliberalism" but "Milton Friedman free market conservativism," or something similar.
Only when Bill Clinton and his Democratic Party allies adopted it in the 1980s did the term
"neoliberal" re-emerge in public discourse.
[I]n the 1970s, when Keynesian policies began to fall apart and economic crises struck on
both sides of the Atlantic, neoliberal ideas began to enter the mainstream. As Friedman
remarked, "when the time came that you had to change there was an alternative ready there to
be picked up". With the help of sympathetic journalists and political advisers, elements
of neoliberalism, especially its prescriptions for monetary policy, were adopted by Jimmy
Carter's administration in the US and Jim Callaghan's government in Britain.
After Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan took power, the rest of the package soon
followed: massive tax cuts for the rich, the crushing of trade unions, deregulation,
privatisation, outsourcing and competition in public services . Through the IMF, the
World Bank, the Maastricht treaty and the World Trade Organisation, neoliberal policies were
imposed – often without democratic consent – on much of the world. Most
remarkable was its adoption among parties that once belonged to the left: Labour and the
Democrats, for example. [emphasis added]
Note the role of Jimmy Carter and start of deregulation in the late 1970s. For that reason,
many consider Jimmy Carter to be the "proto-neoliberal," both for the nation and the Democratic
Party.
Neoliberalism -- "Just Deserts" for Predators and Prey
What makes "neoliberalism" or "free market conservatism" such a radical -- and destructive
-- ideology? It reduces all human activity to economic competition. It creates and glorifies,
in other words, a world of predators and prey, a world like the one we live in as today:
Neoliberalism sees competition as the defining characteristic of human relations. It
redefines citizens as consumers, whose democratic choices are best exercised by buying and
selling, a process that rewards merit and punishes inefficiency. It maintains that "the
market" delivers benefits that could never be achieved by planning.
In a world where competition is right and good, a world in which the "market" is the
defining metaphor for human activity, all social ties are broken, the individual is an atom
left to survive as an individual only, the strongest relentlessly consume the weakest -- and
that's as it should be. (It's easy to imagine how the apex predators of our social order would
be attracted to this, and insist on it with force.
Thus the bipartisan world we live in today. Under a neoliberal regime, everyone gets what
they deserve. Big fish deserve their meal. Little fish deserve their death. And government sets
the table for the feast.
The Role of Government in a Neoliberal World
Since for neoliberals, the "market" is the source of all that is good in human interaction,
non-interference in "the market" is rule one for government.
Over time that has changed, however, as winners have grown more successful and their control
of government more absolute. The proper role of government in today's neoliberal regime is not
merely to allow the market to operate for the benefit of wealth-holders; it's to make
sure the market operates for the benefit of wealth-holders.
In other words, the role of government is to intervene in the market on behalf of
wealth-holders, or, as I put it more colloquially, to proactively enrich the rich. The
interview with Professor Mirowski, as I noted above, makes that same point, but from an
academic standpoint.
From this it should be also clear that until we free ourselves of rule by neoliberals and
the pain and misery they create, we'll always be victims to the predatory giants -- the very
very wealthy and the corporations they use as power-extenders -- those, in other words, who
want merely to own everything else in the world.
This means we need to free ourselves from neoliberals in both parties, not just the
ones in current seats of power. But that idea seems to have been excised from most discussions
these days. Fair warning though. If the Age of Trump ends with the Restoration of Mainstream
Democrats, we'll have won almost nothing at all.
____________
* I sometimes spell "neo-liberalism" with the hyphen to suggest the following connection:
Neo-liberalism is "new liberalism," and has the same relationship to FDR liberalism as New
Labour has to Labour -- the two are exactly opposite.
The burning question I have is how to deploy the terminology in discussion/debate. Here at
NC and other similar sites, practically everyone knows what neoliberalism is and is solidly
against it[1]. But outside of our own bubble, the term generally conveys no meaning
whatsoever, for the following reasons:
(1) if I am speaking to policy-wonk types reared on "conventional wisdom", they tend to
hear being anti-neoliberal as being anti-Copernican. The challenge to basic assumptions is
outside of their window of acceptable ideas, so I am dismissed as a conspiracy wacko; all
communication ends.
(2) If I am speaking to a Fox/Daily Mail/Clarín type, in my experience if they
have even heard the term before, they generally draw no distinction between "Neoliberal"
and "Liberal", so I can rail against the neoliberal capture of government regulatory
powers, and I get nods of agreement "yes the hippies are taking over our public
universities". Again, no real communication there.
(3) Lastly there is the case here in Argentina, where the word has not only been
healthily peppered into the public discourse since at least 2000, but it was even a major
rhetorical enemy of three successive governments. In this case, after so much experience
and rhetoric, everyone knows that "neoliberalism" is bad and evil, but (since it is the
assumed framework of interpretation, as GP notes) the consensus of what this neoliberalism
we're fighting against really is becomes blurry. The evil any politician wants to inveigh
against inevitably gets called "neoliberal", regardless of what the facts may actually be.
All politicians here– even notably those most implicated in forcing neoliberalism on
us in the 90s– now rail against evil "neoliberalism" and the evils of privatisation,
even when nevertheless working to strengthen neoliberalism's actual tenets and re-entrench
privatisation. In sum, the term has been co-opted beyond all meaning.
With all this mess in mind, I have to admit that I really only use the word amongst allies
who I know share my understanding of the term. To do otherwise does not further the debate.
Furthermore, in debates against stalwart neolibs, deploying the term and calling a privatised
deregulated spade a neoliberal spade only has the effect of an ad-hominem; it may be
technically spot-on, but it does nothing to convince the unswayed.
When in doubt I just define neoliberalism as putting markets first and trying to insert
markets where they have no business being (e.g. obamacare). And of course send them
here.
Yes I agree with you and with Strategist below: another (yet to be debased) term stressing
an irrational religious fetish for markets would indeed be much more effective. Then again,
as much as I love Lambert's post (and quote it here often myself), I do not see saying "go
read this 2500 word article from some lefty site you've never heard of" as an argument that
is going to win over most of my interlocutors.
If your desire is to persuade then you might want to try a different approach. Try giving
a person the space to persuade themselves they have got it wrong. This is quite different
from the academic approach – persuade by the logic of the presented argument. Instead
be sympathetic and interested. Ask pertinent questions, don't preach, don't undermine with
your superior knowledge. Still don't expect agreement at the time. People rarely change their
minds at the drop of a hat. If they are genuine, then they will come around in their own
time.
By the way, this is really hard to do and I am completely useless at it, but I have seen the
effects of this approach first hand, and I have seen people change their mind.
Well, ya know, you have to meet them where they are. Richard Wolff has a parable about a family dinner, after which
the mother does not charge the family members, and the son does not offer to do the dishes
for a fee. Some things we just give one another. Mostly people understand about social
obligations at the family level.
I have used a similar argument with a libertarian friend. He is very generous with his
family and friends and looks after their wellbeing in many ways. I tell him that I *totally*
agree, it is just that, as a socialist, I have a broader definition of 'family and friends'.
I think this helps us to understand one another.
I also describe the govt as a 'big buying club' (he is a Costco member, Sam's, etc. and
clubs in with friends to buy bags of green coffee). As group buyers we can get really good
deals on stuff we all need such as schools, roads, police, garbage removal and health care
through group (I don't say 'collective') buying power *plus* we have input through our MP's
and other elected representatives. Whereas, with private biz, we have to take whatever they
want to give us, they skim as much off the top as they can, and if we don't like it we can
call Customer Care in the Philippines. He hasn't come around totally to my viewpoint, but we
are still on speaking terms.
Oh, he had refused to sign up for that socialized medicine OHIP card back when we had to
pay premiums (all govt-pd now, no premiums anymore). He made good health choices, ate
healthily, watched hi weight, exercised and proudly paid his doctor cash for checkups, by
golly. Yeah, proud and free! Until he found an odd protrusion in his belly one day whilst
showering, and found out how much a hernia repair cost. Went and got him that health card
right away
I later bought him a Guinness and permitted myself to ask him how he was finding that
socialized medicine.
The term "market fundamentalism" comes to mind and conveys more meaning than
neo-liberalism, since the term liberalism has come to be associated with "socially liberal"
as opposed to "economically liberal". The phrase also implies dogmatic orthodoxy and
cultism.
Rabid, have you tried the term "market fundamentalists" or "market ideologues" with your
three target audiences? Amongst both think tankers and regular folkz, (and possibly in
Argentina too!) it is not usual to be happy to be considered a fundamentalist and ideologue,
or to be associated too closely with such people.
"Market Utopians", what sets NeoLiberalism apart is the faith that markets solve all
problems. For markets to exist there must first be "money", a social institution, and
"property ", another social institution and an enforcement mechanism mediating between the
two. At this point the lack of primacy of markets, their necessary dependence on the prior
existence of government leads to the question, "what is good government." This leads to the
question of who's freedom good government should be concerned with.
I widen my eyes and say, "Do you *really* want your life to be run by *ROGERS*?" Sub
Comcast, PG&E, Bell, or whatever your local Big Biz that features arbitrary policies,
high prices, poor service, pointless 'packages', surly customer service, long lines, circular
voicemail and excellent shareholder value.
One type I seem to regularly encounter (on the internet, mostly) is the Democrat who's
decided the term has no substantive meaning -- they perceive it to be a slur. Wrong
as they are, the useful term is reduced to a shibboleth in their midst.
This has been my experience, as well. Often the Democrat is a Clinton apologist who can
only perceive the term as somehow a slur against their Dear Leader, though they don't
understand why. These people are hopeless. They will simply follow any politician with a (D)
after their name who can win an election. Win over the rest of the people and such useless
tools will just follow, regardless of ideology.
The people to actually use this as a line of argument with are those not yet assimilated
by The Borg.
Working class people are especially amenable to this logic. This article has a lot of helpful
rhetoric and metaphor for that purpose. I have actually had considerable luck explaining the
ideology as "rule by the markets" or "public good sold off for private purposes"; by showing
a few examples -- such as the constant attempts to destroy Social Security and Medicare; the
cessation of Pell Grants and the commodification of education and health care; all the way
down to the "privatization" (note the 5-syllable word) of Chicago's street parking and its
deleterious effects on quality of life and the environment.
So some posit that the word "neoliberal" is not a real word, but was invented just used to
attack the Democratic Party, and often as a slur against its leadership in general, and the
Clintons in particular; that reasoning reminds me of the extremist Republican partisans who
argue that Nixon's Southern Strategy is a myth, and/or the modern Democratic Party is the
same as the old Jim Crow Democratic Party, and that Lincoln's Republican Party was much the
same as the current one.
Okay, but that is like not using the term "socialist" as in Socialism because some insist
that the National Socialism in the National Socialist German Workers' Party. Words do have
specific meanings, and the decision to discard neoliberal because some choose wilful
ignorance is the same as discarding "liberal" because the Republican Party has used
propaganda, more accurately said lies, to distort its meaning from the original American, or
European, meanings. There has been a century long effort to smear, distort, change the
meanings of words so that having an honest conversation becomes impossible and people's
thoughts run along the approved mental paths.
Communism is Socialism is not Nazism. The Democratic Party is not synonymous with
Neoliberalism, and certainly not Liberalism, or Leftist. Just as the Republican Party is not
synonymous with Conservatism, or Libertarianism, or Rightist.
Working Class is not synonymous with the White Working Class. Being an American
Nationalist is not the same as being a White Nationalist. The Alt-Right is not some new
conservative movement. It's the old racist White Nationalists dressed up with a cutesy new
label.
Conservative does not equal Racist. Liberal does not equal anti-racist, or equality. Just
as the old Progressive Movement did not equal either.
The American Nation is not the same as the White Nation which is not the same as the
Federal Government, let alone the American Government, which is not the same as the American
Constitution, which is not the same as Human Rights.
Justice does not equal legal; legal does not equal fairness.
Free Market does not mean Capitalism, which does not mean Democracy. Those are three
different things.
Words have meaning, and we either use them as they are meant in conversation, or we do not
have a conversation. Maybe a shouting match, but not a conversation. If some Democrats want
to deliberately be ignorant of the the etymology of neoliberalism, to heck with them.
I think we ought to be creative and devise our own new terms of debate. We ought to avoid
overly-academic words. To avoid confusion, I think we should side-step the terms "liberal"
and "neo-liberal" at least until the public imagination has been engaged.
The metaphor about "predator" and "prey" is excellent. So is the idea that when you
idolize "markets", you are reducing human relations to a single dynamic: competition. We
should incorporate these into our daily conversations with others. These two concepts can be
powerful motivators for everyday Americans, and they are simple ideas that can be used to
appeal to almost anyone regardless of literacy or prior political engagement/commitment.
We also need a language for the alternative: a concept of the commons. What should belong
to (the public, the community, the workers ) and be administered for the common good? What do
we want for ourselves that can best be provided if we provide it for everyone (healthcare by
now being the most obvious)?
honestly what does it even matter if people don't identify the water they are swimming in
as neoliberalism and call it say capitalism instead? Most leftists do so, but so will many
ordinary people (and so the young want socialism). Of course the term capitalism is broad
enough to only add minimal clarity (except that it does add one real piece of clarity in
identifying WHOM the system is run for the benefit of, although it excludes rentiers who of
course play no small part). And so with ever evolving capitalism the Marxists may call it
finance capitalism etc.
Market fundamentalism would indeed be a more useful term if that is what is being
critiqued.
RabidGhandi: This is an important discussion. I agree that "neoliberal" is a stumbling
block and not a word we can use to explain ourselves outside this community. I hope we
revisit this problem regularly.
Maybe one way is to try a whole other direction outlined in Game of Mates written by two
Australian economists, Cameron Murray and Paul Frijters.
Murray and Frijters explain how current Australian laws create a system that hurts Bruce
while enriching James. AND IN THE SAME BOOK, they offer suggestions of how this could be
changed. They use "James" to represent the few land developers who purchase the land and are
granted rezoning permission or "grey gifts" while the "Bruces" do not benefit from the
rezoning.
The authors do not present James as avaricious since the way the current rules and
regulations are written anyone of us would do the same.
Since Australian regulatons parallel our own laws, I wish someone would "translate" the
book for U.S. situations. Maybe NC geeks can do this but most people would not. Great
book.
It has two meanings and it is usually impossible to tell in which way it is being
used.
1) Liberal as it was used in the 1950s – 1970s.
2) Liberal – neo-liberal / economically liberal
The early neo-liberals didn't like its 1950s -1970s connotations, later on they realised
the benefits of obfuscating what they were up to.
A very right wing neo-liberalism is deliberately confused with a left wing liberalism to
hide what they are up to.
Francis Fukuyama talked of liberal democracy, which sounded good.
What he meant was neo-liberal democracy, which isn't.
How does identity politics work for neo-liberals? Imagine inequality plotted on two axes. Inequality between genders, races and cultures is what liberals have been concentrating
on. This is the x-axis and the focus of identity politics and the liberal left. On the y-axis we have inequality from top to bottom.
2014 – "85 richest people as wealthy as poorest half of the world"
2016 – "Richest 62 people as wealthy as half of world's population"
2017 – Richest 8 people as wealthy as half of world's population
This is what the traditional left normally concentrate on, but as they have switched to
identity politics this inequality has gone through the roof.
Labour (traditional left) – y-axis inequality
Liberal (liberal left) – x-axis inequality
George Soros is a [neo]liberal, can you work out why?
A liberal left leave neoliberals free to pursue an economically right wing agenda and push
y-axis inequality to new extremes.
"Just deserts for predators and prey" – yes, very much this. I remember talking with
my father about a year ago in a quasi-philosophical sense about where I felt western society
had gone wrong. I could not quite adequately express the essence of my thoughts beyond "a
fundamental devaluation of people as individuals."
I think it applies to foreign policy as well – however you want to put things. The
ghouls/neocons/neolibs decide to start some regime change war somewhere. Hundreds of
thousands/millions of the wrong people die. But the pipeline (or whatever) gets built on the
correct parts of the map. No harm no foul and it's on to the next part of the giant "Risk"
board.
Come to think, I actually quite like "ghoul" as a catch-all term for all these evil
bastards. Can't remember where I first saw that – might have been here – but it
fits.
A good article on the neoliberal links to fascism:
Why
libertarians apologize for autocracy The experience of every modern democratic nation-state proves that libertarianism is
incompatible with democracy by Michael Lind.
Libertarianism is the version of neoliberalism used to get teenagers hooked on
markets.
What is neoliberalism?
A market-based ideology willing to employ fascism to impose the conditions necessary to
establish the market state. (ie, throwing people out of helicopters.)
The state is co-opted to ensure rule of the Market.
The value of everything, human life-included, is to be decided by the Market. (Except when
the outcome is not favorable to the elite. Hence the need to takeover the state.)
The market state will impose Freedom™. Freedom™ means the law of the jungle
and consequently many rebellious serfs, er, citizens unhappy with Freedom™. (Another
reason the state will be needed – to reimpose Freedom™. That is, prison or maybe
helicopter trips.)
In 2015, he discovered that he was enrolled in a particular type of ineligible payment
plan and would need to start his decade of payments all over again, even though he had been
paying more each month than he would have if he had been in an eligible plan. Because of
his 8.25 percent interest rate, which he could not refinance due to loan rules, even those
higher payments weren't putting a dent in his principal. So the $70,000 or so that he did
pay over the period amounted to nothing, and he'll most likely pay at least that much going
forward.
So this is who we are now. For all sorts of reasons that made perfect sense at the time,
we built additional repayment programs onto existing complexity onto well-meaning
forgiveness overseen by multiple layers of responsible parties. And once that was done, Mr.
Shafer, teacher of shelter dwellers and street kids and others whom fellow educators failed
to reach, wasted a small fortune and will now shovel another one into the federal
coffers.
Which leaves just one more question: If this is who we are, is it who we actually want
to be?
Apparently, yes.
The only ray of hope is that neoliberalism seems, by stripping the vast majority of people
of income and assets,
to be wildly successful at suppressing aggregate demand and so contains the seeds of its own
demise. Maybe.
The only ray of hope is that neoliberalism seems, by stripping the vast majority of
people of income and assets, to be wildly successful at suppressing aggregate demand and so
contains the seeds of its own demise. Maybe.
Exactly.. once the majority are stripped of their assets and have to commit most of their
income to rent, there *should* be no growth. Unless the entire system is running around asset
inflation, which it is now. But that cannot last forever.
The only ray of hope is that neoliberalism seems, by stripping the vast majority of
people of income and assets,
to be wildly successful at suppressing aggregate demand and so contains the seeds of its
own demise. Maybe.
I don't think that this is what They are thinking. The 'make it up on volume' is a
retailer strategy, our MOTU are playing well above wholesale and actually are not in the
goods-transferring biz at all. Finance, you know. Long before we are all gone, eaten alive or
whatever, They will be turning their sights on where the real money is -- each other. Perhaps
a few corners of life will survive, and I am curious as to what the new life forms, if any,
that emerge out of this sea of pesticides, herbicides, garbage, and too much CO2 will be.
Academic question, of course. Perhaps this is why there is no evidence of other intelligent
life in the universe? That's too depressing, I'm gonna go make some cinnamon toast.
To create a feudal aristocracy using pseudoscientific propaganda. The government uses a
combination of tax policy, deregulation, the destruction of legal protections (ex: labour
laws), privatization, free trade, mass immigration, propaganda, and frankly, blunt force
where needed to slowly dismantle the middle class.
The end result is a society that looks something like Russia in the 1990s or perhaps South
Africa, with very high inequality along with high multiculturalism.
Enforcement is not consistent. For example, low and middle class workers are expected to
compete in terms of lowest wages and poorest job security with the developing world.
Meanwhile, the very rich can do whatever they want and not pay much taxes. Intellectual
property is another example of this inconsistency, and allows corporations to rent seek on
their IP, itself often a product of taxpayer funded R&D or bought from a small company
(witness how big pharmaceutical companies are guilty of both of these).
Very true, speaking specifically of South Africa where I live, your analysis of the
situation hits the mark. We have an openly neoliberal opposition party that fashions itself
as a pro-poor party yet even a cursory glance at its policy stance reveals where the dictates
it shouts regularly from its benches originate, and whose interests it represents (it's
certainly not the poor). It campaigns heavily for the gutting of labour laws while advocating
for the destruction of local industries by coddling up to foreign investors and free trade
cheerleaders. Yet nobody seems to see the contradiction, because, as Altandmain says above,
it's all about building a narrative through propaganda with the media as an echo chamber (if
people think media ownership in the US is concentrated, they must try visiting SA). And the
trickle down economics myth is very much the dominant narrative down here, with the rich
being worshipped as demigods who hold the fate of the country in their hands, and as such,
must have carte blanche to do as they please
Intellectual capture of the general populace by co-opting (read buying) academia and the
msm to extol the virtues of neoliberalism is what allows its pernicious effects to spread
like wildfire. Credentialism and the pretentious grounding of neoliberal discourse in
pseudoscientific rigor discourages critique from ordinary, "non-expert" people and co-opts
even these lemmings (queitly being marched to their demise) to defend its ideological
soundness. The question i've always had is this: how do countries get grassroots movements
against neoliberalism going when the precursor to success against it seems to be eliminating
basic and functional illiteracy among the general population about its inner workings and the
instruments it uses to legitimize its evils (e.g. propaganda)? Outside of niche communities
like here at NC, most people seem to care more about the Kardashians than equipping
themselves with the chops (financial, technical etc) to call BS on all this. And this seems
to be a war that will require numbers to win, but how to get those numbers when so many
people appear to be so enchanted by the supposed virtues of neoliberalism ("getting ahead",
ruthless competition etc).
PS: Some of us here at NC live in developing countries and the tentacles of this ideology
have proven to be no respector of borders, as such, imho said grassroots movements would
necessarily have to be transnational by spreading beyond the heartlands of global capitalism
(Western Europe & US/North America).
Great article. Now when I hear TV/Journalist commentators suggest the nation-state is
useless and democracy is obsolete I will know their point of reference and unspoken
arguments. I will also listen for what they do not report on or talk about. 'The dog that did
not bark in the night.' Thanks for posting. Two things:
1.
"Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek. Both exiles from Austria, "
Austria in 1938 had no deep-rooted democratic history. It was part of the aristocratic
Austro-Hungarian Empire until 1918, when that collapsed post WWI. Hayek and Mises grounded
their philosophy in their post-empire/post-autocratic-rule chaotic national experiences
– unstable newly imposed democratic societies which previously had a long history of
autocratic rule and a bad or poorly done recent (post WWI) transition to democracy. E.g. Post
WWI Weimar Germany was chaos, as reported by on-the-ground correspondent William Shirer.
Mises and Hayek also applied their ideas to well-established older democratic nations. In
context, their philosophy did not apply to the well-established democracies. If anything,
Mises and Hayek assumed a strong central govt inevitably meant a 'strong man' govt and not a
democratic govt, it seems.
2.
" Through the IMF, the World Bank, the Maastricht treaty and the World Trade Organisation,
neoliberal policies were imposed – often without democratic consent – on much of
the world."
The IMF and WTO and neoliberalism itself have become a 'strong man' or 'strong committee'
supra-govt rule, imo. Neoliberalism's economic application has lead to the very conditions of
weakening democracy and subjecting people to 'strong man/committee rule' Mises and Hayek
tried to prevent by weakening the power of the nation-state, without regard to differences in
nation-state governments and polity.
shorter neolib args:
All* strong govts lead to despotism. (*All? nope. false premise)
Weakening the power of all govt's will guard against despotism. (Really? nope. some forms
of govt are a strong guard against despotism. false premise)
Replacing govt functions with market functions has no risk. (nope. see astronomical price
increases in privatized govt services and deregulated markets. epi-pen?)
Therefore, weakening central govts and replacing their functions with private market
solutions will be both risk free and guard against depotism. (False conclusion from false
premises. And there are plenty of financially despotic markets.)
Too bad Mises and Hayek didn't live in the UK or France or US or Canada or other long
established democracy; not perfect, always struggling to increase the franchise, but more
accountable to citizens than markets.
Substitute "neoliberal" for "Libertarian" and note the operations of "government-like
organizations" that already are systems of systems of predators and parasites that cooperate
(while snarling and snapping and biting at each other) to kill and loot and drive the rest of
us I guess "libertarians," whatever that term means any more, might be part of the Enabling
Class that provides "policy cover" and arguments in support of the rapine that is in play
Thanks very much for this link. I just read the entire series.
Chilling.
Normally I'd dismiss this sort of fevered certainty as lost-cause deadender writing.
The series was written 6 years ago; before the Kansas Real Time Experiment; Obamacare ACA
insurance-companies-will-sort-this-out; proposed TPP and TTIP and ISDS (arbitration and
insurance companies will sort it all out). Now talk of sea-steading and "island" cities and
organized voter suppression.
Chilling developments when placed against libertarian, anti-democratic, rise-of-the-supermen
manifestos.
I've just listened to the Mirowski interview* linked in the main article. According to
Mirowski it is the neo-classicals who want a weakened national govt, not the neo-liberals. So
I've confused the two and need a rethink.
Mirowski says (paraphrasing) the neo-liberals " changed the idea of what a market is " and
believe that " the market is a super information processor that knows more than any human
ever could ." (My aside: This is irrational, but that doesn't stop them.) Therefore
Mere humans should be subordinate to the market because the individual can never know as much
as the market and cannot even know himself outside of his relation to the market. (This is
also irrational and sounds despotic to me. Sounds like saying a person should be subordinate
to computer programs.)
Neo-liberals, therefore, want a strong national govt that they control to promote and expand
markets and the market ideology/idolatry everywhere. (Where have I heard that sort of
quazi-political/philosophical argument used before?)
* starts at the 6 min mark. 18 min mark "super information processor"
Too bad Mises and Hayek didn't live in the UK or France or US or Canada or other
long established democracy;
They did. von Hayek spent the 30s and 40s in the UK, the 50s in the US and retired to West
Germany. von Mises went to Switzerland in 1934 then the US in 1940 and stayed there. They
were, of course, esconced in academia (ie. in their own minds) the whole time.
here is a bit of the antidote–discussed 10/24 in NC regarding the efforts to restore
Puerto Rico–
Farmers' groups are now calling for the proliferation of community-controlled agricultural
cooperatives that would grow food for local consumption. Like the renewable energy
micro-grids, it's a model that is far less vulnerable to supply-chain shocks like hurricanes
-- and it has the additional benefit of generating local wealth and increasing
self-sufficiency.
As with the solar-powered generators, Puerto Rico's farmers aren't waiting for the emergency
to subside before beginning this transition. On the contrary, groups like Boricuá
Organization for Ecological Agriculture have "agroecology brigades" traveling from community
to community to deliver seeds and soil so that residents can begin planting crops
immediately. Katia Avilés-Vázquez, one of Boricuá's farmers, said of a
recent brigade: "Today I saw the Puerto Rico that I dream being born. This week I worked with
those who are giving it birth."
The CoOperative movement emerged in the USA at the end of the 19th century to provide
funding and resources where there was plenty of need but not too much profit to be made.
Isn´t this one of the problems with -isms in general? Communism also has a thousand
meanings depending on who you talk with. Could be everything between the theoretical
Marx-Engels version and the practical realities of Soviet Union/China and other countries
claiming to be "communists".
It seems to me that neoliberalism has been so efficient in establish itself thanks to:
1) being implemented by military forces = the rest of the world outside Europe/US, and now
being maintained through the thorough militarization of western societies: police, censorship
etc.
2) not focusing on being and -ism/ideology but on concrete advises/policies presented in
numbers/graphs (the mathematification of economics)
3) useful idiots in the form of the identity politicians: if they would have been focused and
using their vast amount of energy on countering the maths of economics (before Steve
Keen´s Debunking Economics), instead of counting how many oppressed minority identities
can dance on the head of white middle-aged man, it would have been much more difficult to
implement the neoliberal policies. Or it would have at least accelerated the militarization
of western societies so that the clash between class interests will start, as they always
do.
Maybe better to focus on concrete stuff in arguments, like,
– public ownership of energy and infrastructure in order to guarantee all citizens
access. E.g. Sweden privatized energy production and distribution in the 90s. During one
winter there wasn´t electricity enough to heat houses because the private companies had
done away with excess capacity. Privatization/neoliberalism = not serving the society with
electricity when the society needs it the most.
– Public healthcare, education etc. Every % of profit a company requires for the
owners, this means the same % less to the citizens
and so on.
OK with most of this, but members of congress and staff don't get free healthcare. Though
members have access to some free services, they and some staff purchase insurance on an ACA
exchange called. Other staff remain on the pre-ACA FEHB program in place for other federal
employees. Both programs are employer (taxpayer) subsidized so they only pay a portion of
their premiums, plus whatever their deductible is. For the ACA policies, to get the premium
subsidy they need to choose a gold plan, so will have about 10% in copays.
Nice exposition of the term, neoliberalism, Gaius. Thank you.
I think I first began seeing the term about eight years ago, right after the financial
meltdown. About five years ago, I proposed writing a series of pieces for a group that had
arisen out of the Denver Occupy movement, kind of an "Ask a Neo-Liberal," column, but most
people had never even heard of the term and when I did a bit of research, I just could not
pin down definitions or examples.
So, how do we begin to counter the main tenets of neoliberalism: glorification of 'the
market' as the arbiter of lives, with the resulting dominance of competition over cooperation
and the atomization and breakdown of social ties; we live in a 'dog eat dog' world, only the
strong survive, self-reliance got me where I am?
Some days I think that this creed is the natural result of a Planet that has exceeded its
carrying capacity of humans. When there were far fewer humans, cooperation and strong social
bonds were the only means of survival. Really. The development of Neo-liberalism is Nature's
way of getting rid of us.
But, Neo-liberalism decrees that the survivors will be, at best, rapacious, aggressive and
materialistic. At worst, they will be socio-paths. It's like the Planet if only jaguars,
vultures and leeches, out of all our animal relatives, survived. Do we want that to happen?
OK, I realize that some of us have just given up and are sitting back to watch the slow
motion disaster unfold.
First, admit that under the current system, the vast majority of us are Prey, and the .01%
are Apex Predators, hunting us down, ripping, squeezing and sucking the life (and our
livelihoods) out of us. How do our animal relatives who are not equipped with claws, sharp
teeth and muscles built for speed, survive?
We run even faster, we develop camouflage and hide, we grow armor, we refine cooperative
social skills and live in enormous colonies, (preferably underground!) where our vast numbers
and ability to mobilize for work and protection provide security, we develop symbiotic
relationships with larger and stronger organisms (although some might label this as
'vichy-ism,') we become almost invisible, yet with a deadly sting or poisonous coating, and
we realize that sometimes we have die so that other members of the group can survive.
And, we realize that the area in which we live, our little eco-system, is crucial to our
survival. We don't mess it up.
"Under a neoliberal regime, everyone gets what they deserve. Big fish deserve their meal.
Little fish deserve their death. And government sets the table for the feast."
How to talk about neoliberalism, which is indeed a mouthful? I was at a dinner last night
of two generations of UofChicago products (as am I). We all agreed that the "Law &
Economics" movement there should be dismissed out of hand as plain stupidity. I think that we
spend too much time imagining that there is some Ideal Marketplace of Ideas in which the good
ideas drive out the bad. And then we come up against Facebook and Twitter. So one way of
talking about it is that the law has to govern markets: Neoliberalism is lawlessness. You can
have law or you can have looting.
And we've certainly seen plenty of lawlessness.
Another way is to call it unconstitutional, if your interlocutor knows the U.S.
Constitution. The U.S Constitution doesn't have much to say about economics, and it doesn't
assume that laissez-faire is a-okay.
Further on it being unconstitutional: The U.S. Constitution brilliantly foresaw the need
for some kind of bureacracy to maintain the government, rather than a claque of courtiers. So
it set up the Post Office–that bureaucratic agent of oppression, Uncle Mises! It called
for a census and a Census Bureau–woe betide us Uncle Milton!
You can either have the U.S. Constitution with its flaws, or you can have people eating
bagels with gold foil and telling you that markets rule our lives? So which is it?
Maybe we should just call neoliberalism Gold-Bagel-ism. The antidote, as mentioned above
in the thread by commentes like marym, is to return to some discussion of our Commonwealth
and what to do to maintain it.
For me, the most effective opener (both in the sense of opening discussion as well as the
listener's mind) is to state that neoliberalism is to nearly everyone in the "developed"
world (and beyond) like water for fish: it's the environment in which we live, and thus
becomes invisible to us. Excellent elaboration from above: it's as if citizens of the USSR
had never heard of the word "communism;" instead it's just how life works.
If we can get this opening across, then the definitions and explanations discussed above
in this thread may be much more effective.
Thank you Gaius for a great post – and a thanks as well are due to the authors of
the good comments. As I've been reading these it occurred to me that perhaps a good
conversation starter would be to ask the person what they thought of Margaret Thatcher's
remark, "There's no such thing as society. There are only individuals and families." You'll
have to wing it from there depending on the responses you get.
I also wonder aloud to them, "Why it is that when individuals do whatever they want it is
called lawlessnes or anarchy, Bad Things, but when corporations do whatever they want it is
considered a Good Thing?"
The roots of neoliberalism in the Mont Pelerin Society is also well covered in MacLean's
Democracy in Chains.
While I like this article, I disagree with the relationship of neoliberals to markets and
to competition. Markets are held up to displace blame for decisions and policies made by men.
The powerful use competition to explain why you deserve less and they deserve more, even when
actual competition is not happening, and they actively work to prevent it.
Predators and prey do not compete for resources. A system that enshrines predation among
humans is not based on a buyer and a seller making a transaction at the efficient price that
maximizes each's utility and produces the best use of society's resources.
Agree, but for most of the people I talk to, that argument comes second. First I try to
demonstrate that NeoLiberalism doing what it *says* it does is bad for us. Once they have
that then I can proceed to 'NeoLiberalism doesn't even do what it says it does'. Although, I
think that your point is a good first argument with small business people, "You mean that you
think that your 5-employee cabinet shop makes you buddies with Elon Musk? (sub whatever rich
guy your would aspire to be)" If the time seems right I might add, "He would have you on
*toast*." If they think about that, they usually get it.
I seldom even get to the point of being able to argue about these issues at all, much less
take people thru the layers of consideration I've gone through over the years to reach my
current model of how the world works.
I have been told that all of the books and weird websites that I read as I study a subject
in depth are evidence that I lack objectivity about it and that people who know what they
know from reading ordinary news have a clearer understanding than I.
"I suppose the neo-liberal philosophy could best be summed up by their rallying cry: the
freedom to choose to own slaves."
"But that doesn't make sense. Freedom to choose is logically incompatible with slavery.
And they never said that."
"Indeed. They would claim to be all for freedom, and against slavery. But if someone was
profiting from owning slaves, they would fight tooth and nail to protect them, because any
attempt at restricting the profits of slavery was seen as an intolerable corruption of the
sacred free market. It was how they operated. Depending on what their rich patrons wanted at
the time, sometimes they were all for free trade between the old nation states, and sometimes
they demanded that the wealthy have the 'freedom' to restrict trade. It did not matter that
what they said made no sense, or was logically incoherent, or at variance with reality. They
never apologized, never explained, but only acted with total arrogance and
self-confidence."
From "Space Battleship Scharnhorst and the Library of Doom."
It makes sense if you believe in freedom to choose how to spend your money. How much
choice you have, and how much choice you deserve to have, is measured fine-grain in dollars
and cents. Other forms of power are deemed illegitimate.
it's sliding-scale individualism, where everyone is on their own, and wealth determines
how much of an individual one is. The more of an individual you are, the more liberty you
have, and liberty should be protected by the state.
I tend to think of "one dollar, one vote" when considering elections and politics; while
at the same time neoliberalism is about interpersonal power without direct regard to the
functioning of the state.
By this I mean that if, for example, Peter Thiel decides to spend his money to destroy
you, and you don't have enough money to prevent it, then you deserve destruction. That's
liberty. You're free to choose to spend your money defending yourself. Or not.
Exactly. People in a democracy have been raised to think that they count as much as the
next person, no matter how rich or poor -- at least I hope that is till happening. Well,
unless they are rich, who think they rightfully account for more. So when I say "one dollar,
one vote" to poor/middle people (in an ironic sense, just so that is clear), they *feel* that
it is not fair. If that catches, I point out that it goes against what they have been taught
about how democracy works. I often bring this up in the context of campaign $$$ and Citizens
United. It opposes the 'if they have the money then it's theirs' argument, aka 'the
aristocratic' and 'it's his bat and ball'.
For a long time now I have tried to reconstruct what it was in 1978 that convinced me it
had become impossible to reform the United States.
Gaius has gotten me closer to a reconstruction of why I determined the only real solution was
to create another nation, and kicked off what I recognize now as my own modeling.
My sense of what difference the goal is makes is a government that is just and fair for all
citizens.
This is not the case in the neoliberal world is it. The goal of the neo-liberal world is to
advance a milder form of scientific socialism, meaning the good people, well spoken well
dressed no matter either in business or academia get the money for lives depicted on TV
shows.
Working class people must become super humans to become educated and properly dressed to be
accepted into a world of plenty and safety.
One thing I appreciate about Russians is a unique love of beauty. It is depressing that
American's whole aesthetic sense revolves around cars and art is of no interest until it is
ultra expensive.
Len Deighton's description of liberalism as developed in the 1840s which went on to mean the
children of the newly enriched engineers who made hand built the Industrial Revolution making
cotton underwear were given the money to for the schools of the old school rich people of
Britain and all the rich people were in finance whether they came from old money or new
money.
So I don't think of neoliberalism as about markets as much as I do think of it as the
complete ascendancy of the parasites of Finance.
Creditors do not write down or write off debts of the working classes. Finance now has been
given the US Treasury. Listening to Minuchin saying on the TV, in fact even seeing a face
saying, "We must let the States Go and they have to make it on their own." Means there is
simply no reason then to put any money by anyone into the US Treasury. The United States is
just a huge military engaged in little and large wars all over the world anyway. Why ought
anyone pay taxes to further the new owner of the Empire, Rome?
Deighton writes that since all the sewing machines and looms were moved to India, by the time
the 19th Century ended Finance had gambled away all of the wealth of the UK.
"I like to play with debt, but it is tricky." Says Trump.
As long as you are the "Loss Payee" bankruptcy is as fine as any sort of success aye? "I
don't pay taxes, I'm smart."
The aim is to lose all the money, then have it all given to you by the Treasury.
There is no citizenship of the World Citizen, or Jet Setter. They don't need any real
citizenship.
For the majority, the nation matters. It may be the only thing they have of any value. The
nation we are in love with it the nation that would go to defeat the Barbary Pirates over the
capture of one US citizen, a stand in for you.
The one we have makes heroes and a President of the parasitical pirates come from
neofeudalism.
In Texas even swords are coming back.
Yves, great article, and loved the interview with Mirowski.
Here's the thing I see Neo-liberalism has done for society as a whole. If I asked you to
"I present 2 humans before you and ask which one has more value to the world, which one, if
there was only one hamburger left to eat, deserves to eat that sandwich, deserves to survive
in a world with limited resources (which is what earth is), how would you go about choosing
which one"? I am saying Neo-liberalism says "look at their wealth". It judges people by how
much money/wealth they have. The only way to judge whether one human should survive over
another is by the amount of money they make.
Jimmy Carter said in 1980 how we are moving as a society to how we rate a man is by the
amount of money he has. If he was the proto-Neo-liberal, then it makes sense.
One of the conceits of neo-liberalism (and I guess capitalism in general) is that how much
wealth one has indicates how much one is owed for one's contribution to society (because
markets allocate resources optimally). Thus the biggest takers are transformed into the
biggest givers.
Neo-liberalism doesn't care or think all that much about it's actions, as long as they are
profitable.
We have this ridiculous never ending series of wars and nobody's marching in the streets
or even making a fuss about it, as we've accepted the premise as business as usual.
It has the feel of the Vietnam War still going in 1982, and nobody cared.
Other countries look at prisons as a necessary evil, whereas we can't have enough of them,
so much so that we allow private companies the right to incarcerate our own citizens.
nobody's marching in the streets or even making a fuss about it
Lessee, last time I recall Big Street Protests was Occupy. They got shut
down , brutally. NoDAPL, similar, even the Trump inauguration protests. Marches not
reported -- they might as well not have happened. But I believe they really, really did
happen.
An older friend was going to Cal State L.A. around 1970, when a good number of the student
body decided to walk onto the nearby 10 freeway and shut it down, as a protest against the
Vietnam War.
We incarcerate so many because it is profitable as jobs program for voters in poor
counties, slave labor for manufacturing, and profitable for corporations/donors.
I believe discussion of Neoliberalism is very much like discussion of Global Warming.
"Weedy" or not, "academic" or not both discussions require transit through some difficult
concepts and technical depth. In the case of Global Warming discussions you either come to
grips with some complicated climate science or you end up discussing matters of faith drawn
from popular "simplifications". In the case of Neoliberalism the discussion necessarily
enters a region which requires attention to fine details which when followed to their end
tend to have deep and broad implications.
In the interview referenced by this post Phillip Mirowski asserts Neoliberals believe the
Market is an information processor which "knows" more than you or I could ever know. He also
introduces the concept of a Thought Collective -- which he states he adapted from writings of
Ludwig Fleck related to describing a method for study and explanation of the history of
Science. I believe both these "weedy" "academic" distinctions are key to understanding
Neoliberalism and distinguishing it from Neoclassical economics and Libertarianism. The
concept of a Thought Collective greatly aids understanding the particularly slippery nature
of Neoliberalism as a term for discussion. That slippery nature is no accident. The Market as
a theory of knowledge -- an epistemology -- makes apparent the philosophical even "religious"
extent of Neoliberal thinking.
Two recent papers by Phillip Mirowski tackle the difficulties in defining and discussing
Neoliberalism. They are both "weedy" and "academic" and unfortunately help little in
addressing the issue RabidGhandhi raised at the root of the lengthy thread beginning the
comments to this post.
"This is Water (or is it Neoliberalism?)" 2016 -- this is a response to critics of the
previous paper.
[https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/this-is-water-or-is-it-neoliberalism]
There have been several oblique references to this story -- so I'll repeat it since I only
recently ran across it.
There are these two young fish swimming along, and they happen to meet an older fish
swimming the other way, who nods at them and says, "Morning, boys, how's the water?" And
the two young fish swim on for a bit, and then eventually one of them looks over at the other
and goes, "What the hell is water?"
I am afraid that little story says volumes about the problem RabidGhandhi raised. I
believe remaining "weedy" and "academic" is the very least service we might do to discussing
Neoliberalism and when arguing topics related to Neoliberalism -- and probably the least
damage.
"... all the faux media wind about Russians hacking the crooked DNC, nothing about the deep states surveillance of Hillary's opposition. First the NKVD came for GOPsters........ Stop whining about fascist threats. DNC neoliberal gestapo is working ..."
"... The dems' failed coup the demise of their partisan deep state surveillance. The US cannot afford to allow the crooked democrat party to abide. ..."
all the faux media wind about Russians hacking the crooked DNC, nothing about the deep states
surveillance of Hillary's opposition. First the NKVD came for GOPsters........ Stop whining about
fascist threats. DNC neoliberal gestapo is working
"... The History of the Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation ..."
"... The Fed Has a Theory. Trouble is the Proof is Patchy ..."
"... Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation? ..."
"... Declining Labor and Capital Shaes ..."
"... I am constantly baffled by economists trying to explain very complex non-linear system with simple two variable models. I have been dealing with a couple of engineering problems today where the publication I am using has over 50 design charts just for gravity pipe flow. Each chart has about five variables accommodated while holding a number of others constant. ..."
"... So I think we see the Philips curve predictably happening in the short-term in fields like technology where there is big demand and not enough people. However, as a general rule across the economy, I simply don't see why the relationship between inflation and unemployment should be the same today as it was in 2007, 1997, 1987, or 1977. ..."
"... Economics is infected with too much ideology and not enough scientific method. That is more the definition of a religion than a science. ..."
"... If neoliberals were intellectually honest, they wouldn't call it supply side economics, they'd call it philo-capital economics ..."
"... 80's Poly-Sci defined, "neo-feudalism" (or, as "Shock Doctrine", privatization of all "resource" + government capacity, subject financial sector capture) ..."
"... As far as I can tell, the whole idea of NAIRU is strictly an artifact of economic modeling, not something that's actually ever been observed in the wild. And doesn't it seem odd that making sure we don't drop below NAIRU is something the Fed feels like it needs to intervene to ensure rather than letting the market sort it out. Even if NAIRU was a real thing, you would assume that low unemployment –> increased wages –> increased prices –> reduced consumption –> lay-offs and higher unemployment. Which is to say, if there were such a thing as a natural rate of unemployment, wouldn't markets naturally produce it, obviating any need for the Fed to, say, jack up interest rates to keep the economy from "heating up" (I guess because people have so much money burning holes in their pockets?). It almost like, when it suits the capitalists, they stop believing in this whole "invisible hand" thing .strange ..."
"... "Neoliberalism sees competition as the defining characteristic of human relations. It redefines citizens as consumers, whose democratic choices are best exercised by buying and selling, a process that rewards merit and punishes inefficiency. It maintains that "the market" delivers benefits that could never be achieved by planning. ..."
The Rise and Fall of
the Phillips Curve Posted on October 27, 2017 The
Phillips Curve says that there is an inverse relation between unemployment and inflation. Low
unemployment is correlated with a rise in inflation. It's an article of faith to economists of
all stripes. It's listed in the popular introductory economics textbook by N. Gregory Mankiw as
one of the Ten Things All Economists agree
on . It's especially loved by the Fed, which raises or lowers interest rates depending in
part on its predictions. Its critics point out that its predictions are poor.
In this post, I discuss the derivation of the Phillips Curve, its adaption by Samuleson and
Solow to manage the economy, its breakdown in the 1970s, exploitation by neoliberals of that
breakdown to replace Keynesian demand-based economics with monetarism and supply-side
economics, its rejuvenation, and the evidence that it doesn't make accurate predictions.
I conclude with some observations based on an important paper by Simcha Barkai that
challenges the core beliefs of neoliberalism. It suggests we can raise wages substantially
without causing inflation by lowering corporate profits.
History
This part is based on Sections I-III of Robert Gordon's article, The History of the
Phillips Curve: Consensus and Bifurcation , Economica (2011) 78, 10–50 (behind
paywall, but you can find it online at your local library). Gordon is an economics professor at
Northwestern and has worked on the Phillips Curve for decades.
William Phillips published a paper in 1958 showing a correlation between wage growth and
inflation in the UK between 1861 and 1913. He fitted a curve to the data, and then compared
that curve to UK data from two later periods. There was a remarkable similarity for most of the
two periods, with exceptions Phillips explains away. Here is the curve Phillips derived:
1. w t = -.90 + 9.64U -1.39
Gordon says that " the inflation rate would be expected to equal the growth rate of wages
minus the long-term growth rate of productivity." P. 12.
1a. p = w – k
Here p is inflation, w is wage growth, and k is productivity growth. Generally in these
equations, lower case letters are rates of change and upper case letters are levels. We can
substitute Equation 1a into Equation 1 to get the original Phillips Curve.
2. p = -.90 + 9.64U -1.39 – k.
Paul Samuelson and Robert Solow picked up on the Phillips paper with a paper of their own in
1960. Gordon says much of their paper is a discussion of pre-Phillips theory. They can't find
data on the US economy similar to that found by Phillips for the UK economy, so they work up
some of their own data and make some calculations showing a result similar to that of Phillips.
Whereas Phillips does not mention the possibility that the curve might shift, Samuelson and
Solow find such shifts and offer possible explanations, such as strong labor unions.
Here's a schematic drawing of the Phillips Curve from Wikipedia :
The standard curve might be the one on the left. It shows very high inflation at very low
unemployment, but falls quickly as unemployment rises. That suggested to Samuelson and Solow
that there is a trade-off if the economy is in specific parts of the Phillips Curve: by
allowing a slightly higher level of inflation, you could get a big drop in unemployment. The US
tried this idea in the 1960s. This policy was tied to Keynesianism, which was the predominate
theory in the Kennedy and Johnson era, and into the Nixon Presidency.
When OPEC massively increased the price of oil in the early 70s, inflation soared far past
the level suggested by the Phillips Curve. The neoliberals at the University of Chicago argued
that the failure of the Phillips Curve proved that Keynesian economics was worthless, and
pushed their solution: monetarism. They also had a formula to replace the Phillips Curve as a
predictor of inflation.
Their explanation for the failure of the trade-off was something like this. Suppose the
beginning rates of inflation and unemployment are at Point A on the above chart. The Fed lowers
interest rates resulting in a small increase of inflation, so that the economy moves to Point B
with lower unemployment. People believe that is unsustainable, and that the economy will revert
to the natural rate of unemployment, the vertical line. As a result, the Phillips Curve shifts
up and to the right over time, so that the economy moves to Point C, with the beginning
unemployment rate but higher inflation.
The neoliberals won. Keynesianism lost out and was replaced by monetarism. This was probably
not deserved, according to Gordon. He says that Samuelson and Solow were not talking about the
situation that came about in the 70s, but rather the situation in the early 1960s. He also
spends a good part of his paper showing that the formulas offered by Friedman and the
neoliberals for predicting inflation were a total failure both on factual and theoretical
grounds.
Gordon himself proposed a version of the Phillips Curve designed to deal with the problem of
supply and demand shocks like the Oil Shock:
3. p = Ep t + b(U t – U tN ) + z
t + e t
In Equation 3, the second U term is the natural rate of unemployment, z t
represents cost-push pressure, and e t is apparently a constant. The natural rate of
unemployment and the z term vary over time, and for some reason so does the e term. There is
nothing left of the wage term. The Phillips Curve is now free from the bonds of factual data
that gave Phillips his interesting result. It's a curve-fitting exercise, using economic
theories put together in a way that fits the data. It's a complicated formula in which every
term needs to be calculated from some other theory or data.
Gordon says that Equation 3 is the canonical version of the Phillips Curve. It is
incorporated in most econometric models, modified by some other variables and terms, including
levels of taxation, expectations of inflation, inflation inertia, which relates to price and
wage rigidity in the short run, and a host of other terms. But as we shall see, it doesn't work
as a predictor.
Criticism of the Phillips Curve
The Phillips Curve has been controversial for a long time, as Mankiw
admits in his introductory textbook. Ben Leubsdorf wrote a very readable criticism for the
Wall Street Journal on August 14, 2014, just before the Fed started raising interest rates. His
title is The Fed Has a Theory. Trouble is the Proof is Patchy (sadly behind a paywall;
it's available online at your local library).
Leubsdorf confirms that most economists believe that there is a short run trade-off between
inflation and unemployment and also agree that this trade-off doesn't hold in the long term,
meaning that we can't get permanently lower unemployment by accepting a bit more inflation. But
the problem is that there is also no apparent connection in the short run either. Here's a
chart originally in Leubsdorf's article and reprinted in a post discussing the article by
Jared Bernstein .
Source: Wall Street Journal
To read this chart, select an expansion period from the list on the upper right, find the
line that color, and locate the circle at one end of the line; that's the starting point. Then
follow the line to see how the relationship between unemployment (x-axis) and inflation
(y-axis) changes over time. As you can see there is no apparent connection in any except the
first expansion. The lack of connection to theory is especially obvious in the current
expansion.
The Leubsdorf article has several quotes from Very Serious People to the effect we think
there's a relationship and we're going to act like there is a relationship, and we can
fine-tune the economy with our gut instincts.
It doesn't look like the latest study will change minds either. That one comes from the
Philadelphia Fed in August 2017, Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast
Inflation? The conclusion is that the Phillips Curve does worse than something called a
univariate model which I won't discuss.
In this September 26
New York Times article there are more Very Serious People explaining they need to follow
their instincts about the economy in deciding on interest rates and they are sure inflation is
coming. Meanwhile, the economy continues to add jobs with no obvious increase in inflation as
shown by the blue line on the above chart. Inflation is
currently running at 1.3% .
Damage From the Phillips Curve
We have already seen that the first notable failure of the Phillips Curve was used to
undermine Keynesian economics in favor of monetarism. As a result, working people of all
classes were doubly harmed, first by the abandonment of the Fed of any significant role in
cutting unemployment, and second by the savage use of high rates to control inflation.
Here's a chart showing the labor share in gross national product on the left axis (blue
line) and the prime rate on the right axis (red line).
The grey bars are recessions. This chart shows that up to 2000 every time workers start to
get a bigger share of the GDP, the Fed raises interest rates. The Phillips Curve was the
justification for those rate hikes. There is some evidence wages are firming up today, and
maybe even rising a fraction faster than inflation. Following tradition but not evidence, the
Fed is raising rates. If that hurts workers, also in accordance with tradition, that's just too
bad.
Observations
Take another look at Equation 1a. If we set inflation at zero, Equation 1 says that wage
growth equals productivity growth. That's not true. Here's a chart from the Economic Policy Institute .
The wage line is for production and non-supervisory personnel, which the EPI says is about
80% of employed people. The average wage for all workers has grown somewhat faster, but is
still well under the rate of increase of productivity over the long term.
Money produced in the economy goes either to capital or labor. So, the excess gains from
productivity must be going to capital.
Actually, it seems strange to suggest that none of the gains from increased productivity go
to capital, as Equation 1a does. Consider a company like Google. It can buy a few more computer
blades and serve more customers with little or no increase in total wages. The gains from the
productivity of the new capital all go to the company. Or consider a company that outsources
its labor. Some of the gains might be used to cut prices, I suppose, but surely most of the
gain stays with the company.
The following chart shows the sudden growth in top wealth. It demonstrates that the growth
began at the same time as the productivity-wages gap began, more support for the idea that the
gains from productivity are going to capital.
Capital can take many forms. It could be plant and equipment, commercial or agricultural
land, personal residences, art, gold, and many other things believed to store value, whether or
not they are actually producing anything, or even whether they actually store value. We know
that top wealth is rising, the stock market is up, and the value of residential real property
in all major cities is rising. All these and more suggest that the total amount of capital is
increasing. All that increase is funded by the gains from productivity.
A recent paper by Simcha Barkai, Declining Labor and
Capital Shaes , provides a convincing explanation. The labor share is declining he
says. But so is what he calls the "capital share", a defined term, calculated by multiplying
the "required rate of return" by the capital stock deployed in the non-financial business
sector. Capital stock includes plant and equipment, land, and intangibles such as patents and
software, less depreciation. The required return on capital is approximately and sensibly
defined as the cost of obtaining capital in the financial markets. He shows that the cost of
capital has declined by 7% over the period of his study, 1984-2014. If the amount of capital
deployed had increased as might be expected with this large drop in cost, the capital share
might have remained the same. Instead, businesses did not deploy additional capital, and the
capital share declined by some 30% over the period. During that period the labor share declined
10% from a larger starting point.
The combined losses were more than made up by increases in the profits share. Profits add to
the value of the firm, and are distributed by the owners of firms as they see fit, which isn't
to lowly workers. This is from Barkai's paper:
Across specifications, the profit share (equal to the ratio of profits to gross value
added) has increased by more than 12 percentage points. To offer a sense of magnitude, the
value of this increase in profits amounts to over $1.1 trillion in 2014, or $14 thousand for
each of the approximately 81 million employees of the non-financial corporate sector. P.
3.
Barkai attributes this almost entirely to increased concentration of US industries, and most
of the paper is devoted to proof of that conclusion. He links that increase in concentration to
changes in anti-trust law and policy engineered by Robert Bork when he was at the University of
Chicago.
Conclusion
Following Barkai, we should rewrite Equation 1a like this:
1b. p = w + γ + c t – k
where γ is the rate of growth of the profits share, c t is the rate of
growth of the capital share, w is the rate of growth of wages, p is inflation, and k is
productivity. Substituting the original Phillips equation, Equation 1 into Equation 1b gives
us
4. p = -.90 + 9.64U -1.39 + γ + c t – k.
This equation calls attention to the role that profits play in the economy, something
economists generally generally ignore. When people do discuss profits, it's always in the
context of the importance of capital and the need to coddle it. That view lies at the heart of
neoliberalism, and at the heart of Fed policy. It is also at the heart of the Law and Economics
movement also spawned at the University of Chicago, a movement that has changed the legal
system to favor capital. If neoliberals were intellectually honest, they wouldn't call it
supply side economics, they'd call it philo-capital economics.
Equation 1 has been replaced by Equation 3 in the standard model of the Phillips Curve.
3. p = Ep t + b(U t – U tN ) + z
t + e t
Making this work with Barkai's analysis is harder. We get a clue from Gordon's explanation
of the z term: he call it cost push, meaning price shocks caused by labor unions and "bauxite
barons". This is where capital growth fits in. The ability to control markets gives firms the
ability to cause price shocks, as when pharmaceutical companies drive up the price of epi-pens
or other drugs, but also the ability to gradually increase prices above the rate of inflation.
Therefore, I'd rewrite Equation 3 this way:
5. 3. p = Ep t + b(U t – U tN ) + γ
+ c t + e t
Gordon doesn't explain the e term, so we'll just let that pick up anything that used to be
in the z term that is somehow missed by my addition. It would, for example, include demand-pull
inflation, which hasn't been a problem for some time.
In the current situation, with profits at very high levels, we can easily increase wages
without increasing inflation if the rich were willing to accept lower profits, subject to the
availability of sufficient resources to meet the new levels of demand substantially higher
wages might cause.
Barkai says just distributing the historically high profits to workers would give every
working person (other than those in the financial sector) a $14K raise. That dwarfs the
make-believe
$4K-9K per household the Republicans promise from their proposed tax cuts.
Unfortunately, the Phillips Curve isn't the only thing blocking action to help the average
citizen.
I am constantly baffled by economists trying to explain very complex non-linear system
with simple two variable models. I have been dealing with a couple of engineering problems
today where the publication I am using has over 50 design charts just for gravity pipe flow.
Each chart has about five variables accommodated while holding a number of others
constant.
So I believe the Philips curve is valid but it is in a different place in multi-variable
space each decade or so based on fundamental changes in the economy. Over the past thirty
years, I can think of four major changes off the top of my head that lead me to expect the
Philips curve to translate in multi-variable space:
1. Free trade agreements (NAFTA etc.)
2. Technology displacing workers
3. Baby boomer demographic moving from entering peak productivity to retirement age
4. Women and minorities are becoming more widespread throughout most or all jobs.
So workers to day are now competing more with Second and Third World workers while
technology is dramatically changing the workplace (e.g. secretarial positions dramatically
reduced), and inexperienced 25 year old white men, women, minorities are being hired to
replace experienced 60 year old white men. Why would we expect to have a nice linear
relationship between unemployment and wages across this period?
So I think we see the Philips curve predictably happening in the short-term in fields like
technology where there is big demand and not enough people. However, as a general rule across
the economy, I simply don't see why the relationship between inflation and unemployment
should be the same today as it was in 2007, 1997, 1987, or 1977.
Economics is infected with too much ideology and not enough scientific method. That is
more the definition of a religion than a science.
Good article. In my econ undergrad, I remember my intermediate macro professor pointing
out that reality didn't match the theoretical Philips curve very well and then we continued
assuming that it did, for the remainder of the course. {facepalm}
If neoliberals were intellectually honest, they wouldn't call it supply side economics,
they'd call it philo-capital economics
Might I suggest "capitalphilic economics"? Seems to roll off the tongue a little
better.
80's Poly-Sci defined, "neo-feudalism" (or, as "Shock Doctrine", privatization of all
"resource" + government capacity, subject financial sector capture)
Doncha just love how it's defined, in practice, as whatever the unemployment rate seems to
settle around. If I'm not mistaken, in the 70's NAIRU was considered to be 6 or 7 %. Then
unemployment fell and inflation didn't accelerate so they changed NAIRU to 5%.
What I want to know is if there has ever been a documented case where it can be shown that
low unemployment levels actually led to accelerating-inflation. The inflationary periods in
US history that I'm familiar with seem to have all been caused by supply shocks (i.e. oil
embargo) or financial shenanigans (the housing market of the early aughties). Ditto for other
countries, so far as I know.
As far as I can tell, the whole idea of NAIRU is strictly an artifact of economic
modeling, not something that's actually ever been observed in the wild. And doesn't it seem
odd that making sure we don't drop below NAIRU is something the Fed feels like it needs to
intervene to ensure rather than letting the market sort it out. Even if NAIRU was a real
thing, you would assume that low unemployment –> increased wages –>
increased prices –> reduced consumption –> lay-offs and higher
unemployment. Which is to say, if there were such a thing as a natural rate of unemployment,
wouldn't markets naturally produce it, obviating any need for the Fed to, say, jack up
interest rates to keep the economy from "heating up" (I guess because people have so much
money burning holes in their pockets?). It almost like, when it suits the capitalists, they
stop believing in this whole "invisible hand" thing .strange
If I remember right, Phillips published this paper because LSE was pushing him to publish
something so that they could justify awarding him professorship and tenure, and he could go
to tinkering with his MONIAC. I was told he just wanted to get something out, and this was
the first idea he had so he wrote it up, but wasn't really persuaded..
The damage to the real world the academia demands does..
"Real world" powers can riffle through the files of academia, hard and soft sciences or
the various humanities or whatever, even languages and linguistics, and, because "freedom,"
can always come up with something published that "proves" whatever line of BS the looters are
pushing at any given moment to increase their "take."
But then ever since humans discovered ratiocination, thus it has always been. SOMEone or
SOMEthing always has to be "the authority," or at least "authoritative "
This is one reason why America is being parasitized by finance -- - Math. That and the
math card in computers that allows the instantaneous creation of speculation and playing of
the numbers with hypothetical money that later translates into real productivity or more
likely misery.
The average American's eyes glaze over as soon as you put up a math formula. He of course,
will memorize all manner of arcane sports trivia and statistics, but when it comes time to
quantify his own economic doom, or to think about his or her own economic travails with
numbers and curves, it's mind shutdown time.
This is why we love Yves. She has allowed us to get an insight into, become informed and
learn about economics through high quality reporting. Thank you for this reminder of the
hocus pocus and the witch-doctory that is casting our spell into economic hell.
not just "math": Rand-Friedman-libertarian ideological definition:
"Neoliberalism sees competition as the defining characteristic of human relations. It
redefines citizens as consumers, whose democratic choices are best exercised by buying and
selling, a process that rewards merit and punishes inefficiency. It maintains that "the
market" delivers benefits that could never be achieved by planning.
Attempts to limit competition are treated as inimical to liberty. Tax and regulation
should be minimised, public services should be privatised. The organisation of labour and
collective bargaining by trade unions are portrayed as market distortions that impede the
formation of a natural hierarchy of winners and losers. Inequality is recast as virtuous: a
reward for utility and a generator of wealth, which trickles down to enrich everyone. Efforts
to create a more equal society are both counterproductive and morally corrosive. The market
ensures that everyone gets what they deserve.
We internalise and reproduce its creeds. The rich persuade themselves that they acquired
their wealth through merit, ignoring the advantages – such as education, inheritance
and class – that may have helped to secure it. The poor begin to blame themselves for
their failures, even when they can do little to change their circumstances.
Never mind structural unemployment: if you don't have a job it's because you are
unenterprising. Never mind the impossible costs of housing: if your credit card is maxed out,
you're feckless and improvident. Never mind that your children no longer have a school
playing field: if they get fat, it's your fault. In a world governed by competition, those
who fall behind become defined and self-defined as losers."
Your link dances around calling it out: neoliberalism is a rebranding of social
darwinism.
Not much "neo" about it. But for all the alleged "progress," it seems we're trapped in a
culture that really finds it hard to let go of the 19th Century. And mot just economically,
but socially as well.
"natural hierarchy of winners and losers " – does not exist. They rebranded to try
to get around all the artificial selection in the global economy.
In an early draft of this article, I had a reference to Econned, where Yves discusses the
use of the Gaussian Copula in the organization of RMBSs. So, yes, it's largely the math that
Samuelson and Solow and the people who came later loved.
You'll note that I only use very simple math, mostly because it's a nice shorthand, like
Equations 1a and 1b
vlade hit on a key point, IMO. I was an undergrad at prestigious Midwestern school during
the period where they split the Econ department in 2 -- a econometrics-esque degree from the
Math/Science school, vs. 'Economics' which they kept in the College of Arts and Letters.
They've been strangling the latter department since while ensuring steady flow of grants to
the math-based department, a la the Phillips story alluded to above.
Seconding diptherio – I remember the introductory statistics and econometric courses
I was required to take, where we'd routinely dissect econ reporting in the press based on
flawed mathematics or poor statistical methods, and yet carry as though these were meaningful
and useful figures (e.g. unemployment, inflation).
So what to do -- do you try to change the way economics is practiced? Or do you try to
take away the influence that neoliberalism and/or industrial capitalism have on the education
fields? And how exactly do you do that (reform education) given how instrumental it is for
neoliberalism to continue.
I see an analogy here, maybe I am wrong. Picture bull-fighting, an appropriate concept,I
think. I see neoliberalism as the Matador, education as the cape, and the public as the bull.
So the questions above might be rephrased as from the bull's perspective, do you chase the
cape or gore the matador?
The stakes are high for the matador -- although as a spectator that fact is hidden in
plain sight.
Thanks for this very readable and important post. Demystify the Phillips Curve and other
economic "truths" being used against Main Street is significant.
" This equation calls attention to the role that profits play in the economy, something
economists generally generally ignore. When people do discuss profits, it's always in the
context of the importance of capital and the need to coddle it. That view lies at the heart
of neoliberalism, and at the heart of Fed policy."
When you think about it, the PC supports the argument of how Supply & Demand explains
pretty much everything about economics. It you need to explain economics in a nutshell to a
working guy who thinks nothing is really all that complicated (were it not for intellectuals
over-thinking things), it fills the bill rather nicely. A matter of rhetorical Supply &
Demand, come to think of it.
For most people, being confronted with "scientific evidence" is enough to lay to rest any
and all doubt about the claims being made in a proposition. Scientific evidence hardens
claims into hard facts, and does so quickly. What better way to make something appear
scientific than to riddle its academic literature with curves and formulas, and give it its
own pride of place at the nobles side by side with real sciences. That real sciences have
laws that are universally applicable or can at least be reconciled across levels of reality
with the consistency you'd expect of something labelled a science (e.g. how quantum
electrodynamics reconciles classical electrodynamics at the atomic and subatomic levels)
seems to be a minor inconvenience to those with vested interests in having economics accepted
by the public as a hard science (precisely, I say again, because presenting "scientific
evidence" with formulas and curves disarms most people, among them the political ruling
class, of their critical thinking faculties). Add living in an age of credentialism to the
mix and the general ineptitude of our ruling politicians and one can see how economists can
wreak so much havoc with their ex-cathedra pronouncements on what makes the economy work
The material about Simcha Barkai's paper is the most interesting part of this to me. That
paper strikes a serious blow at the heart of neoliberal antitrust law, but it also explains
the wage-productivity gap and shows the way to social changes that would benefit most of
us.
The Philips Curve exemplifies the dysfunction created by separating
mathematical/quantitative descriptions of an economy from that same lived economy and its
history. The PC was originally developed on British data covering a period roughly from ten
years after the Crystal Palace Exhibition of 1851 to WWI, and then extended to WWII. Over the
same period, literature met Oliver Twist and Alice and her rabbit hole, was jostled by Hardy
and Lawrence, and jolted by Joyce, Woolf and Eliot, not least because a woman writer demanded
a room of her own. The changes in social, economic and political life were comparable.
The British statistics cover a period when power shifted as dramatically as literature. A
suffrage limited to propertied men became universal. The agency, the organization,
persistence and determination necessary to create that change was considerable. So, too, a
landowning aristocracy, once at the apex of all social, political, legal and economic life,
saw its monopoly shrink, or rather found itself joined by large business owners, financiers,
traders and press lords, and for a time, trades union leaders.
Parliament expressed that power shift, for example, by ending tariffs protecting domestic
grain production, substituting, instead, subsidies for imported food stuffs, in order more
cheaply to keep workers fed and at their machines. (A hard-fought concession to a new,
competing power block of manufacturers, their financiers and traders,) A major constitutional
crisis in 1910-11 presaged adoption of Bismarckian welfare programs, which America did not
see until FDR and LBJ. These were a modest but viciously fought concession in order to avoid
the kind of extra-constitutional change experienced by Russia a few years later.
Workers over this period witnessed the final stage of enclosures (privatizing of common
lands), the end of cottage industries, and the rise, dominance and decline of heavy industry.
The Crystal Palace's startling iron pillars and acres of glass yielded to curtain walls and
structural steel. Technology, as today, raced headlong. Stage coaches gave way to steam
railroads; the telegraph to the telephone and wireless; lances, swords and muzzle loaders to
dreadnoughts, flying machines, automatic weapons and poison gas – all with vastly
different supply chains, need for capital and levels of employment.
The empire added half of Africa, notably South Africa and its ores, diamonds and gold, and
de facto control of Egypt and its canal at Suez. De jure imperial relations existed with
India and the "white commonwealth" countries of Canada, Australia, New Zealand and South
Africa (post-Boer War). De facto imperial relations existed with much of Latin America, the
Caribbean and East Asia. The pound was a global currency and the Royal Navy was admonished to
"rule the waves", an aspiration that has since given way to following and buying from the
stars and stripes. The ebb and flow of imperial power affected raw material prices coming in
and export prices going out.
By what logic would the statistics of economic relations, of changing notions of
acceptable levels of employment and inflation (capital's nemesis), not be affected by
dramatic changes in social, political and economic conditions? Demonstrating sufficient
continuity to establish a "law" for those relations for a single country, let alone one valid
across time and national boundaries, would seem to be a sisyphean task.
There's a persuasive interpretation of Phillips' original work and application to US data
by John Hussman, which argues :
1) Phillips' original paper is right but most of the work since is garbage which missed
the point.
2) Phillips' correct result is a relationship between unemployment and real wage growth
("wage inflation"), not consumer prices.
3) Most modern interpretations have either incompetently lost the point about real wages,
or deliberately obfuscated. (Modern econ exists to serve capital more than labor, so this is
not surprising.)
"When labor is scarce (low unemployment), the price of labor
tends to rise relative to the price of other things (thus we observe real wage inflation ).
In contrast, when labor is plentiful (high unemployment), the price of labor tends to
stagnate relative to the price of other things (real wages stagnate)."
Whether real wage inflation translates into consumer price inflation depends on the supply
and demand of consumer goods, repayment of debts, workers' need to save for retirements
etc.
I believe real wage growth, at the expense of corporate profits, is exactly what has been
missing from the health of the economy for the past 20-40 years.
I also suspect the true reason why central banks fear low unemployment is because those
increases in workers' wages will come at the expense of corporate profitability. (Especially
in an economy with high corporate profit levels and inadequate price competition.)
I also suspect most modern recessions have not been caused by the low unemployment, but
rather by the credit tightening applied to prevent low unemployment – to prevent
workers from enjoying higher wages at the owners' expense.
Portside article about NAFTA, unions, and Canadian unions: Here is a paragraph from the
underlying article at New York Magazine about the three sponsors:
On Wednesday, Democratic senators Elizabeth Warren, Sherrod Brown, and Kirsten Gillibrand
announced their agreement -- and introduced legislation to ban "right-to-work" laws
throughout the United States.
[NY Mag article is dated 20 Sept 2017]
The sooner we collectively kill off the feudal idea of "right to work," the better. Right
now, though, we're only what -- sixty, seventy–years too late?
Why didn't Democrats pass legislation in 2009 to eliminate it?
It was one of the few policies that I could think of what would actually, you know, help
the win elections. But then I realized the the purpose of the DNC isn't actually to win
elections, it's to raise money from Wall Street, Hollywood and Silcon Valley to pay for
consultants.
Why didn't Democrats pass legislation in 2009 to eliminate it?
Yeah, Captain Hope'N-Change failed to deliver labor any meaningful legislation during his
eight years in office.
Labor was essentially told "We put some friendly faces on the NLRB and in the judiciary.
Be thankful, and forget about card check or right to work preemption."
And it's a bad look anyway. With the basically insurmountable barriers to organizing under
the Wagner Act these days, a focus on making sure the money keeps flowing, much of it ending
up in the Ds campaign coffers. How about repealing Taft-Hartley?
Maybe unions would be better off with less bureaucracy and more member participation. Do
it like the Wobs: you come to the meeting, you pay your dues, you voice your opinion and you
vote.
The Closed Shop
Jurisdictional Strikes
Secondary Boycotts
Common Situs Picketing
A Ban on Right-to-Work
A Ban on presidential interventions in strikes
Supervisor's Unions
Employer Nuetrality
Hopefully this happens before I die. I would absolutely love to see the yacht and learjet
owning class in tears!
They not only write themselves they've already been written and burned into the brain.
True or not, there they are. So what are you risking?
The thing is the D-time is well past the point (no House, no Senate, no Pres, vanishing
amount of Govs, vanishing amount of State leges..) where saying "That's not true!!" can be
considered a winning strategy, even if you could show me what you've won by saying it.
How about "hell yeah that's how we feel, America rocked (when we had strong labor)". Stand
up to the bully for once, again whaddya got to lose now. I often wonder what Steve Gilliard
would say at this point, he always made sure that us white people realized that something was
better than nothing when you were looking at absolutely nothing at all . but things have sunk
so low would he still feel that what has become nothing more than an orderly, but continuous
retreat should be sustained? Or is it time to dig in and really declare full throated
opposition?
(like the rest of your post, just think the time to avoid things is past)
Henry Moon Pie: So? Let's repeal the Wagner Act and Taft-Hartley. And let's not pre-defeat
ourselves.
Just as Lambert keeps reminding us, Who would have though five years ago that the momentum
is now toward single-payer health insurance even if the current couple of bills don't pass?
For years, John Conyers carried on the fight almost single-handedly. And now we have
influential physicians stumping for single-payer.
"... Google is algorithmically burying leftist news and opinion sources such as Alternet, Counterpunch, Global Research, Consortium News, and Truthout, among others. ..."
"... my political essays are often reposted by right-wing and, yes, even pro-Russia blogs. I get mail from former Sanders supporters, Trump supporters, anarchists, socialists, former 1960s radicals, anti-Semites, and other human beings, some of whom I passionately agree with, others of whom I passionately disagree with. As far as I can tell from the emails, none of these readers voted for Clinton, or Macron, or supported the TPP, or the debt-enslavement and looting of Greece, or the ongoing restructuring of the Greater Middle East (and all the lovely knock-on effects that has brought us), or believe that Trump is a Russian operative, or that Obama is Martin Luther Jesus-on-a-stick. ..."
"... What they share, despite their opposing views, is a general awareness that the locus of power in our post-Cold War age is primarily corporate, or global capitalist, and neoliberal in nature. They also recognize that they are being subjected to a massive propaganda campaign designed to lump them all together (again, despite their opposing views) into an intentionally vague and undefinable category comprising anyone and everyone, everywhere, opposing the hegemony of global capitalism, and its non-ideological ideology (the nature of which I'll get into in a moment). ..."
"... Although the term has been around since the Fifth Century BC, the concept of "extremism" as we know it today developed in the late Twentieth Century and has come into vogue in the last three decades. During the Cold War, the preferred exonymics were "subversive," "radical," or just plain old "communist," all of which terms referred to an actual ideological adversary. ..."
"... Which is why, despite the "Russiagate" hysteria the media have been barraging us with, the West is not going to war with Russia. Nor are we going to war with China. Russia and China are developed countries, whose economies are entirely dependent on global capitalism, as are Western economies. The economies of every developed nation on the planet are inextricably linked. This is the nature of the global hegemony I've been referring to throughout this essay. Not American hegemony, but global capitalist hegemony. Systemic, supranational hegemony (which I like to prefer "the Corporatocracy," as it sounds more poetic and less post-structural). ..."
"... Global capitalism, since the end of the Cold War (i.e, immediately after the end of the Cold War), has been conducting a global clean-up operation, eliminating actual and potential insurgencies, mostly in the Middle East, but also in its Western markets. Having won the last ideological war, like any other victorious force, it has been "clear-and-holding" the conquered territory, which in this case happens to be the whole planet. Just for fun, get out a map, and look at the history of invasions, bombings, and other "interventions" conducted by the West and its assorted client states since 1990. Also, once you're done with that, consider how, over the last fifteen years, most Western societies have been militarized, their citizens placed under constant surveillance, and an overall atmosphere of "emergency" fostered, and paranoia about "the threat of extremism" propagated by the corporate media. ..."
"... Short some sort of cataclysm, like an asteroid strike or the zombie apocalypse, or, you know, violent revolution, global capitalism will continue to restructure the planet to conform to its ruthless interests. The world will become increasingly "normal." The scourge of "extremism" and "terrorism" will persist, as will the general atmosphere of "emergency." There will be no more Trumps, Brexit referendums, revolts against the banks, and so on. Identity politics will continue to flourish, providing a forum for leftist activist types (and others with an unhealthy interest in politics), who otherwise might become a nuisance, but any and all forms of actual dissent from global capitalist ideology will be systematically marginalized and pathologized. ..."
"... C. J. Hopkins is an award-winning American playwright, novelist and satirist based in Berlin. His plays are published by Bloomsbury Publishing (UK) and Broadway Play Publishing (USA). His debut novel, ZONE 23 , is published by Snoggsworthy, Swaine & Cormorant. He can reached at cjhopkins.com or consentfactory.org . ..."
"... That is certainly what the geopolitical establishment is hoping for, but I remain skeptical of their ability to contain what forces they've used to balance the various camps of dissenting proles. They've painted themselves into a corner with non-white identity politics combined with mass immigration. The logical conclusion of where they're going is pogroms and none of the kleptocracy seem bold enough to try and stop this from happening. ..."
"... Germany is the last EU member state where an anti EU party entered parliament. In the last French elections four out of every ten voters voted on anti EU parties. In Austria the anti EU parties now have a majority. So if I were leading a big corporation, thriving by globalism, what also the EU is, I would be worried. ..."
"... This is a great article. The author's identification of "normality" & "extremism" as Capitalism's go-to concepts for social control is spot on accurate. That these terms can mean anything or nothing & are infinitely flexible is central to their power. ..."
Back in October of 2016, I wrote
a somewhat divisive essay in which I suggested that political dissent is being systematically
pathologized. In fact, this process has been ongoing for decades, but it has been significantly accelerated
since the Brexit referendum and the Rise of Trump (or, rather, the Fall of Hillary Clinton, as it
was Americans' lack of enthusiasm for eight more years of corporatocracy with a sugar coating of
identity politics, and not their enthusiasm for Trump, that mostly put the clown in office.)
In the twelve months since I wrote that piece, we have been subjected to a concerted campaign
of corporate media propaganda for which there is no historical precedent. Virtually every major organ
of the Western media apparatus (the most powerful propaganda machine in the annals of powerful propaganda
machines) has been relentlessly churning out variations on a new official ideological narrative designed
to generate and enforce conformity. The gist of this propaganda campaign is that "Western democracy"
is under attack by a confederacy of Russians and white supremacists, as well as "the terrorists"
and other "extremists" it's been under attack by for the last sixteen years.
I've been writing about this campaign for a year now, so I'm not going to rehash all the details.
Suffice to say we've gone from
Russian operatives hacking the American elections to "Russia-linked" persons "apparently" setting
up "illegitimate" Facebook accounts, "likely operated out of Russia," and publishing ads that are
"indistinguishable from legitimate political speech" on the Internet. This is what the corporate
media is presenting as evidence of
"an unprecedented foreign invasion of American democracy," a handful of political ads on Facebook.
In addition to the Russian hacker propaganda, since August, we have also been treated to relentless
white supremacist hysteria and daily reminders from the corporate media that
"white nationalism is destroying the West." The negligible American neo-Nazi subculture has been
blown up into a biblical Behemoth inexorably slouching its way towards the White House to officially
launch the Trumpian Reich.
At the same time, government and corporate entities have been aggressively restricting (and in
many cases eliminating) fundamental civil liberties such as freedom of expression, freedom of the
press, the right of assembly, the right to privacy, and the right to due process under the law. The
justification for this curtailment of rights (which started in earnest in 2001, following the September
11 attacks) is protecting the public from the threat of "terrorism," which apparently shows no signs
of abating. As of now, the United States has been in
a State of Emergency for over sixteen years. The UK is in
a virtual State of Emergency . France is now in the process of enshrining
its permanent State of Emergency into law. Draconian counter-terrorism measures have been
implemented throughout the EU . Not just
the notorious American police but
police
throughout the West have been militarized . Every other day we learn of some
new emergency security measure designed to keep us safe from "the terrorists," the "lone wolf
shooters," and other "extremists."
Conveniently, since the Brexit referendum and unexpected election of Trump (which is when the
capitalist ruling classes first recognized that they had a widespread nationalist backlash on their
hands), the definition of "terrorism" (or, more broadly, "extremism") has been expanded to include
not just Al Qaeda, or ISIS, or whoever we're calling "the terrorists" these days, but anyone else
the ruling classes decide they need to label "extremists." The FBI has designated Black Lives Matter
"Black Identity Extremists." The FBI and the DHS have designated Antifa
"domestic terrorists."
Whatever your opinion of these organizations and "extremist" persons is beside the point. I'm
not a big fan of neo-Nazis, personally, but neither am I a fan of Antifa. I don't have much use for
conspiracy theories, or a lot of the nonsense one finds on the Internet, but I consume a fair amount
of alternative media, and I publish in CounterPunch, The Unz Review, ColdType, and other non-corporate
journals.
I consider myself a leftist, basically, but my political essays are often reposted by right-wing
and, yes, even pro-Russia blogs. I get mail from former Sanders supporters, Trump supporters, anarchists,
socialists, former 1960s radicals, anti-Semites, and other human beings, some of whom I passionately
agree with, others of whom I passionately disagree with. As far as I can tell from the emails, none
of these readers voted for Clinton, or Macron, or supported the TPP, or the debt-enslavement and
looting of Greece, or the ongoing restructuring of the Greater Middle East (and all the lovely knock-on
effects that has brought us), or believe that Trump is a Russian operative, or that Obama is Martin
Luther Jesus-on-a-stick.
What they share, despite their opposing views, is a general awareness that the locus of power
in our post-Cold War age is primarily corporate, or global capitalist, and neoliberal in nature.
They also recognize that they are being subjected to a massive propaganda campaign designed to lump
them all together (again, despite their opposing views) into an intentionally vague and undefinable
category comprising anyone and everyone, everywhere, opposing the hegemony of global capitalism,
and its non-ideological ideology (the nature of which I'll get into in a moment).
As I wrote in that essay a year ago, "a line is being drawn in the ideological sand." This line
cuts across both Left and Right, dividing what the capitalist ruling classes designate "normal" from
what they label "extremist." The traditional ideological paradigm, Left versus Right, is disappearing
(except as a kind of minstrel show), and is being replaced, or overwritten, by a pathological
paradigm based upon the concept of "extremism."
* * *
Although the term has been around since the Fifth Century BC, the concept of "extremism" as
we know it today developed in the late Twentieth Century and has come into vogue in the last three
decades. During the Cold War, the preferred exonymics were "subversive," "radical," or just plain
old "communist," all of which terms referred to an actual ideological adversary.
In the early 1990s, as the U.S.S.R. disintegrated, and globalized Western capitalism became the
unrivaled global-hegemonic ideological system that it is today, a new concept was needed to represent
the official enemy and its ideology. The concept of "extremism" does that perfectly, as it connotes,
not an external enemy with a definable ideological goal, but rather, a deviation from the norm. The
nature of the deviation (e.g., right-wing, left-wing, faith-based, and so on) is secondary, almost
incidental. The deviation itself is the point. The "terrorist," the "extremist," the "white supremacist,"
the "religious fanatic," the "violent anarchist" these figures are not rational actors whose ideas
we need to intellectually engage with in order to debate or debunk. They are pathological deviations,
mutant cells within the body of "normality," which we need to identify and eliminate, not for ideological
reasons, but purely in order to maintain "security."
A truly global-hegemonic system like contemporary global capitalism (the first of this kind in
human history), technically, has no ideology. "Normality" is its ideology an ideology which erases
itself and substitutes the concept of what's "normal," or, in other words, "just the way it is."
The specific characteristics of "normality," although not quite arbitrary, are ever-changing. In
the West, for example, thirty years ago, smoking was normal. Now, it's abnormal. Being gay was abnormal.
Now, it's normal. Being transgender is becoming normal, although we're still in the early stages
of the process. Racism has become abnormal. Body hair is currently abnormal. Walking down the street
in a semi-fugue state robotically thumbing the screen of a smartphone that you just finished thumbing
a minute ago is "normal." Capitalism has no qualms with these constant revisions to what is considered
normal, because none of them are threats to capitalism. On the contrary, as far as values are concerned,
the more flexible and commodifiable the better.
See, despite what intersectionalists will tell you, capitalism has no interest in racism, misogyny,
homophobia, xenophobia, or any other despotic values (though it has no problem working with these
values when they serve its broader strategic purposes). Capitalism is an economic system, which we
have elevated to a social system. It only has one fundamental value, exchange value, which isn't
much of a value, at least not in terms of organizing society or maintaining any sort of human culture
or reverence for the natural world it exists in. In capitalist society, everything, everyone, every
object and sentient being, every concept and human emotion, is worth exactly what the market will
bear no more, no less, than its market price. There is no other measure of value.
Yes, we all want there to be other values, and we pretend there are, but there aren't, not really.
Although we're free to enjoy parochial subcultures based on alternative values (i.e., religious bodies,
the arts, and so on), these subcultures operate within capitalist society, and ultimately conform
to its rules. In the arts, for example, works are either commercial products, like any other commodity,
or they are subsidized by what could be called "the simulated aristocracy," the ivy league-educated
leisure classes (and lower class artists aspiring thereto) who need to pretend that they still have
"culture" in order to feel superior to the masses. In the latter case, this feeling of superiority
is the upscale product being sold. In the former, it is entertainment, distraction from the depressing
realities of living, not in a society at all, but in a marketplace with no real human values. (In
the absence of any real cultural values, there is no qualitative difference between Gerhard
Richter and Adam Sandler, for example. They're both successful capitalist artists. They're just selling
their products in different markets.)
The fact that it has no human values is the evil genius of global capitalist society. Unlike the
despotic societies it replaced, it has no allegiance to any cultural identities, or traditions, or
anything other than money. It can accommodate any form of government, as long as it plays ball with
global capitalism. Thus, the window dressing of "normality" is markedly different from country to
country, but the essence of "normality" remains the same. Even in countries with state religions
(like Iran) or state ideologies (like China), the governments play by the rules of global capitalism
like everyone else. If they don't, they can expect to receive a visit from global capitalism's Regime
Change Department (i.e., the US military and its assorted partners).
Which is why, despite the "Russiagate" hysteria the media have been barraging us with, the
West is not going to war with Russia. Nor are we going to war with China. Russia and China are developed
countries, whose economies are entirely dependent on global capitalism, as are Western economies.
The economies of every developed nation on the planet are inextricably linked. This is the nature
of the global hegemony I've been referring to throughout this essay. Not American hegemony, but global
capitalist hegemony. Systemic, supranational hegemony (which I like to prefer "the Corporatocracy,"
as it sounds more poetic and less post-structural).
We haven't really got our minds around it yet, because we're still in the early stages of it,
but we have entered an epoch in which historical events are primarily being driven, and societies
reshaped, not by sovereign nation states acting in their national interests but by supranational
corporations acting in their corporate interests. Paramount among these corporate interests is the
maintenance and expansion of global capitalism, and the elimination of any impediments thereto. Forget
about the United States (i.e., the actual nation state) for a moment, and look at what's been happening
since the early 1990s. The US military's "disastrous misadventures" in Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan,
Syria, and the former Yugoslavia, among other exotic places (which have obviously had nothing to
do with the welfare or security of any actual Americans), begin to make a lot more sense.
Global capitalism, since the end of the Cold War (i.e, immediately after the end of the Cold
War), has been conducting a global clean-up operation, eliminating actual and potential insurgencies,
mostly in the Middle East, but also in its Western markets. Having won the last ideological war,
like any other victorious force, it has been
"clear-and-holding" the
conquered territory, which in this case happens to be the whole planet. Just for fun, get out a map,
and look at the history of invasions, bombings, and other "interventions" conducted by the West and
its assorted client states since 1990. Also, once you're done with that, consider how, over the last
fifteen years, most Western societies have been militarized, their citizens placed under constant
surveillance, and an overall atmosphere of "emergency" fostered, and paranoia about "the threat of
extremism" propagated by the corporate media.
I'm not suggesting there's a bunch of capitalists sitting around in a room somewhere in their
shiny black top hats planning all of this. I'm talking about systemic development, which is a little
more complex than that, and much more difficult to intelligently discuss because we're used to perceiving
historico-political events in the context of competing nation states, rather than competing ideological
systems or non-competing ideological systems, for capitalism has no competition . What it
has, instead, is a variety of insurgencies, the faith-based Islamic fundamentalist insurgency and
the neo-nationalist insurgency chief among them. There will certainly be others throughout the near
future as global capitalism consolidates control and restructures societies according to its values.
None of these insurgencies will be successful.
Short some sort of cataclysm, like an asteroid strike or the zombie apocalypse, or, you know,
violent revolution, global capitalism will continue to restructure the planet to conform to its ruthless
interests. The world will become increasingly "normal." The scourge of "extremism" and "terrorism"
will persist, as will the general atmosphere of "emergency." There will be no more Trumps, Brexit
referendums, revolts against the banks, and so on. Identity politics will continue to flourish, providing
a forum for leftist activist types (and others with an unhealthy interest in politics), who otherwise
might become a nuisance, but any and all forms of actual dissent from global capitalist ideology
will be systematically marginalized and pathologized.
This won't happen right away, of course. Things are liable to get ugly first (as if they weren't
ugly enough already), but probably not in the way we're expecting, or being trained to expect by
the corporate media. Look, I'll give you a dollar if it turns out I'm wrong, and the Russians, terrorists,
white supremacists, and other "extremists" do bring down "democracy" and launch their Islamic, white
supremacist, Russo-Nazi Reich, or whatever, but from where I sit it looks pretty clear tomorrow belongs
to the Corporatocracy.
C. J. Hopkins is an award-winning American playwright, novelist and satirist based in Berlin.
His plays are published by Bloomsbury Publishing (UK) and Broadway Play Publishing (USA). His debut
novel,
ZONE
23 , is published by Snoggsworthy, Swaine & Cormorant. He can reached at
cjhopkins.com or
consentfactory.org .
Brilliant Article. But this has been going on for nearly a century or more. New York Jewish bankers
fund the Bolshevik revolution which gets rid of the Romanov dynasty and many of the revolutionaries
are not even Russian. What many people do not know is that many Western companies invested money
in Bolshevik Russia as the Bolsheviks were speeding up the modernising of the country. What many
do not know is that Feminism, destruction of families and traditional societies, homoerotic art
etc . was forced on the new Soviet population in a shock therapy sort of way. The same process
has been implemented in the West by the elites using a much slower 'boiling the frog' method using
Cultural Marxism. The aim of the Soviet Union was to spread Communism around the World and hence
bring about the One World Government as wished by the globalists. Their national anthem was the
'Internationale'. The globalists were funding revolutionary movements throughout Europe and other
parts of the world. One such attempt went extremely wrong and that was in Germany where instead
of the Communists coming in power, the National Socialists come in power which was the most dangerous
challenge faced by the Zio/globalists/elite gang. The Globalists force a war using false flag
events like Pearl Harbour etc and crushed the powers which challenged their rule i.e. Germany,
Japan and Italy. That is why Capitalist USA funded Communist Soviet Union using the land lease
program, which on the surface never makes any sense.
However in Soviet Russia, a power struggle leads to Stalin destroying the old Communist order
of Lenin Trotsky. Trotsky and his supporters leave the Soviet Union. Many of the present Neo Cons
are ex Trotskyites and hence the crazy hatred for Russia even today in American politics. These
Neocons do not have any principles, they will use any ideology such as Communism, Islam, twisted
Western Conservatism anything to attain their global goals.
Now with Stalin coming to power, things actually improved and the war with Hitler's Third Reich
gave Stalin the chance to purge many old school globalist commies and then the Soviet Union went
towards a more nationalist road. Jews slowly started losing their hold on power with Russians
and eventually other Soviets gaining more powerful positions. These folks found the ugly modern
art culture of the early Soviet period revolting and started a new movement where the messages
of Socialism can be delivered with more healthy beautiful art and culture. This process was called
'Social Realism'. So strangely what happened was that the Capitalist Christian West was becoming
more and more less traditional with time (Cultural Marxism/Fabien Socialism via media, education,
Hollywood) while the Eastern block was slowly moving in an opposite direction. The CIA (which
is basically the intelligence agency arm of Wall Street Bankers) was working to stop this 'Social
Realism' movement.
These same globalists also funded Mao and pulled the rug under Chiang Kai Shek who they were
supporting earlier. Yes, Mao was funded by the Rockerfeller/ Rothschild Cabal. Now, even if the
Globalists were not happy with Stalin gaining power in the Soviet Union (they preferred the internationalist
Trotskyites), they still found that they could work out with the Soviet Union. That is why during
the 2nd World war, the USA supports the USSR with money and material, Stalin gets a facelift as
'friendly Uncle Joe' for the Western audience. Many Cossack families who had escaped the Soviet
Union to the West were sent to their deaths after the War to the Soviet Union. Why? Mr. Eden of
Britain who could not stand Hitler wanted a New World Order where they could work with the more
murderous Soviet Union.
Now we have the cold war. What is not known is that behind the scenes at a higher level, the
Americans and the Soviets cooperated with each other exchanging technology, basically the cold
war was quite fake. But the Cold war gave the American government (basically the Globalists) to
take American Tax payers hard earned money to fund many projects such as Star Wars programme etc
All this was not needed, as a gentleman named Keenan had shown in his book that all the Americans
needed to do was to make sure Japan, Germany and Britain did not fall to the Soviets, that's it.
Thus trillions of American tax payer money would be saved. But obviously the Military Industrial
Complex did not like that idea. Both the Soviet and the American governments got the excuse spend
their people's hard money on weapons research as well as exchanging some of that technology in
the back ground. It is during this period that the precursor to the Internet was already developed.
Many of the technology we use today was already invented much earlier by government agencies but
released to the people later.
Then we have the Vietnam war. Now you must realise that the Globalist government of America
uses wars not only to change enemy societies but also the domestic society in the West. So during
the Vietnam War, the US government using the alphabet agencies such as the CIA kick start the
fake opposition hippie movements. The CIA not only drugged the Vietnamese population using drugs
from the Golden Triangle but later released them on the home population in the USA and the West.
This was all part of the Cultural Marxist plan to change or social engineer American/ Western
society. Many institutes like the Travestock Institute were part of this process. For example
one of the main hochos of the Cultural Marxism, a Mr. Aderno was closely related to the Beatles
movement.
Several experiments was done on mind control such as MK Ultra, monarch programming, Edward
Bernay's works etc Their aim was to destroy traditional Western society and the long term goal
is a New World Order. Blacks for example were used as weapons against Whites at the same time
the black social order was destroyed further via the media etc
Now, Nixon going to China was to start a long term (long planned) process to bring about Corporate
Communism. Yes that is going to be economic system in the coming New World Order. China is the
test tube, where the Worst of Communism and the Worst of Crony Capitalism be brought together
as an experiment. As the Soviet Union was going in a direction, the globalist was not happy about
(it was becoming more nationalist), they worked to bring the Soviet Union down and thus the Soviet
experiment ended only to be continued in China.
NATO today is the core military arm of the globalists, a precursor to a One World Military
Force. That explains why after the Warsaw pact was dismantled, NATO was not or why NATO would
interfere in the Middle East which is far away from the Atlantic Ocean.
The coming Cashless society will finally lead to a moneyless or distribution society, in other
words Communism, that is the long term plan.
My point is, many of the geo political events as well as social movements of the last century
(feminism for example) were all planned for a long time and are not accidents. The coming technologies
like the internet of things, 5G technology, Cashless society, biometric identification everywhere
etc are all designed to help bring about the final aim of the globalists. The final aim is a one
world government with Corporate ruled Communism where we, the worker bees will be living in our
shitty inner city like ghetto homes eating GM plastic foods and listening to crappy music. That
is the future they have planned for us. A inner city ghetto like place under Communism ruled by
greedy evil corporates.
"Short some sort of cataclysm, like an asteroid strike or the zombie apocalypse, or, you know,
violent revolution, global capitalism will continue to restructure the planet to conform to its
ruthless interests."
That is certainly what the geopolitical establishment is hoping for, but I remain skeptical
of their ability to contain what forces they've used to balance the various camps of dissenting
proles. They've painted themselves into a corner with non-white identity politics combined with
mass immigration. The logical conclusion of where they're going is pogroms and none of the kleptocracy
seem bold enough to try and stop this from happening.
That is certainly what the geopolitical establishment is hoping for, but I remain skeptical
of their ability to contain what forces they've used to balance the various camps of dissenting
proles.
There must be some evidence for your assertions about the long term plans and aims of globalists
and others if there is truth in them. The sort of people you are referring to would often have
kept private diaries and certainly written many hundreds or thousands of letters. Can you give
any references to such evidence of say 80 to 130 years ago?
.. puzzling that the writer feels the need to virtue-signal by saying he "doesn't have much
time for conspiracy theories" while condemning an absolutely massive conspiracy to present establishment
lies as truth.
That is one of the most depressing demonstrations of the success of the ruling creeps that
I have yet come across.
Germany is the last EU member state where an anti EU party entered parliament. In the last
French elections four out of every ten voters voted on anti EU parties. In Austria the anti EU
parties now have a majority. So if I were leading a big corporation, thriving by globalism, what
also the EU is, I would be worried.
"See, despite what intersectionalists will tell you, capitalism has no interest in racism, misogyny,
homophobia, xenophobia, or any other despotic values (though it has no problem working with these
values when they serve its broader strategic purposes). Capitalism is an economic system, which
we have elevated to a social system. It only has one fundamental value, exchange value, which
isn't much of a value, at least not in terms of organizing society or maintaining any sort of
human culture or reverence for the natural world it exists in. In capitalist society, everything,
everyone, every object and sentient being, every concept and human emotion, is worth exactly what
the market will bear no more, no less, than its market price. There is no other measure of value."
This is a great article. The author's identification of "normality" & "extremism" as Capitalism's
go-to concepts for social control is spot on accurate. That these terms can mean anything or nothing
& are infinitely flexible is central to their power.
Mr Hopkins is also correct when he points out that Capitalism has essentially NO values (exchange
value is a value, but also a mechanism). Again, Capitalism stands for nothing: any form of government
is acceptable as long as it bows to neoliberal markets.
However, the author probably goes to far:
"Nor are we going to war with China. Russia and China are developed countries, whose economies
are entirely dependent on global capitalism, as are Western economies. The economies of every
developed nation on the planet are inextricably linked. This is the nature of the global hegemony
I've been referring to throughout this essay. Not American hegemony, but global capitalist hegemony.
Systemic, supranational hegemony".
Capitalism has no values: however the Masters of the capitalist system most certainly do: Capitalism
is a means, the most thorough, profound means yet invented, for the attainment of that value which
has NO exchange value: POWER.
Capitalism is a supranational hegemony – yet the Elites which control it, who will act as one
when presented with any external threats to Capitalism itself, are not unified internally. Indeed,
they will engage in cut throat competition, whether considered as individuals or nations or as
particular industries.
US Imperialism is not imaginary, it is not a mere appearance or mirage of Capitalism, supranational
or not. US Imperialism in essence empowers certain sets of Capitalists over other sets. No, they
may not purposely endanger the System as a whole, however, that still leaves plenty of space for
aggressive competition, up to & including war.
Imperialism is the political corollary to the ultimate economic goal of the individual Capitalist:
Monopoly.
Psychologically daring (being no minstrel to corporatocracy nor irrelevant activism and other
"religions" that endorse the current world global system as the overhead), rationally correct,
relevant, core definition of the larger geo-world and deeper "ideological" grounding( in the case
of capitalism the quite shallow brute forcing of greed as an incentive, as sterile a society as
possible), and adhering to longer timelines of reality of planet earth. Perfectly captures the
"essence" of the dynamics of our times.
The few come to the authors' through-sites by many venue-ways, that's where some of the corporocratic
world, by sheer statistics wind up also. Why do they not get the overhand into molding the shallow
into anything better in the long haul. No world leader, no intellectual within power circles,
even within confined quarters, speaks to the absurdity of the ongoing slugging and maltering of
global human?
The elites of now are too dumb to consider the planet exo-human as a limited resource. Immigration,
migration, is the de facto path to "normalization" in the terms of the author. Reducing the world
population is not "in" the capitalist ideology. A major weakness, or if one prefers the stake
that pinches the concept of capitalism: more instead of quality principles.
The game changers, the possible game changers: eugenics and how they play out as to the elites
( understanding the genome and manipulating it), artificial intelligence ( defining it first,
not the "Elon Musk" definition), and as a far outlier exo-planetary arguments.
Confront the above with the "unexpected", the not-human engineered possible events (astroids
and the like, secondary effects of human induced toxicity, others), and the chances to get to
the author's "dollar" and what it by then might mean is indeed tiny.
As to the content, one of the utmost relevant articles, it is "art" to condense such broad
a world view into a few words, it requires a deep understanding foremost, left to wonder what
can be grasped by most reading above. Some-one try the numbers?, "big data" anyone, they might
turn out in favor of what the author undoubtedly absorbed as the nucleus of twenty-first thinking,
strategy and engineering.
This kind of thinking and "Harvard" conventionality, what a distance.
Great article, spot on. Indeed we are all at the mercy now of a relatively small clique of ruthless
criminals who are served by armies of desensitized, stupid mercenaries: MBAs, politicians, thugs,
college professors, "whorenalists", etc. I am afraid that the best answer to the current and future
dystopia is what the Germans call "innere Emigration," to psychologically detach oneself
from the contemporary world.
Thus, the only way out of this hellhole is through reading and thinking, which every self-respecting
individual should engage in. Shun most contemporary "literature" and instead turn to the classics
of European culture: there you will find all you need.
For an earlier and ever so pertinent analysis of the contemporary desert, I can heartily recommend
Umberto Galimberti's I vizi capitali e i nuovi vizi (Milan, 2003).
And yes, another verbally strong expression of the in your face truth, though for so few to
grasp. The author again has a deep understanding, if one prefers, it points to the venueway of
coming to terms, the empirical pathway as to the understanding.
"Plasticky" society is my preferred term for designating the aberrance that most (within the
elites), the rest who cares (as an historical truth), do not seem to identify as proper cluelessness
in the light of longer timelines. The current global ideology, religion of capitalism-democracy
is the equivalent of opportunistic naval staring of the elites. They are not aware that suffocation
will irreversibly affect oneself. Not enough air is the equivalent of no air in the end.
The negligible American neo-Nazi subculture has been blown up into a biblical Behemoth inexorably
slouching its way towards the White House to officially launch the Trumpian Reich.
While the above is true, I hope most folks understand that the basic concept of controlling
people through fear is nothing new. The much vaunted constitution was crammed down our collective
throats by the rich scoundrels of the time in the words of more than one anti-federalist through
the conjuring of quite a set of threats, all bogus.
I address my most fervent prayer to prevent our adopting a system destructive to liberty
We are told there are dangers, but those dangers are ideal; they cannot be demonstrated.
- Patrick Henry, Foreign Wars, Civil Wars, and Indian Wars -- Three Bugbears, June 5, 7,
and 9, 1788
Bottom line: Concentrated wealth and power suck.The USA was ruled by a plutoligarchy from its
inception, and the material benefits we still enjoy have occurred not because of it but
despite it.
For today's goofy "right wing" big business "conservatives" who think the US won WW2, I got news
for you. Monopoly capitalism, complete with increasing centralization of the economy and political
forces were given boosts by both world wars.
It was precisely in reaction to their impending defeat at the hands of the competitive storms
of the market tha t business turned, increasingly after the 1900′s, to the federal government
for aid and protection. In short, the intervention by the federal government was designed,
not to curb big business monopoly for the sake of the public weal, but to create monopolies
that big business (as well as trade associations smaller business) had not been able
to establish amidst the competitive gales of the free market. Both Left and Right have been
persistently misled by the notion that intervention by the government is ipso facto leftish
and anti-business. Hence the mythology of the New-Fair Deal-as-Red that is endemic on the Right.
Both the big businessmen, led by the Morgan interests, and Professor Kolko almost uniquely
in the academic world, have realized that monopoly privilege can only be created by the
State and not as a result of free market operations.
-Murray N. Rothbard, Rothbard Left and Right: The Prospects for Liberty, [Originally appeared
in Left and Right, Spring 1965, pp. 4-22.]
It was all about connecting the dots really. Connecting the dots of too many books I have gobe
through and videos I have seen. Too many to list here.
You can get a lot of info from the book 'Tragedy and Hope' by Carroll Quigley though he avoids
mantioning Jews and calls it the Anglo American establishment, Anthony Sutton however I completely
disagree about funding of the Third Reich but he does talk a lot about the secret relationship
between the USA and the USSR, Revilo Oliver etc.. etc Well you could read the Protocols. Now if
you think that the protocols was a forgery, you gotta see this, especially the last part.
Also check this out
Also check out what this Wall Street guy realised in his career.
Also this 911 firefighter, what he found out after some research
Capitalism is an economic system, which we have elevated to a social system. It only
has one fundamental value, exchange value, which isn't much of a value, at least not in terms
of organizing society or maintaining any sort of human culture or reverence for the natural
world it exists in. In capitalist society, everything, everyone, every object and sentient
being, every concept and human emotion, is worth exactly what the market will bear no more,
no less, than its market price. There is no other measure of value.
This looks like the "financialization" of society with Citizens morphing into Consumers.
And it's worth saying that Citizenship and Consumership are completely different concepts:
Citizenship – Dictionary.com
1. – the state of being vested with the rights, privileges, and duties of a citizen.
2. – the character of an individual viewed as a member of society;behavior in terms of the
duties, obligations, and functions of a citizen:
an award for good citizenship.
The Consumer – Dictionary.com
1. a person or thing that consumes.
2. Economics. a person or organization that uses a commodity or service.
A good citizen can then define themselves in a rather non-selfish, non-financial way as for
example, someone who respects others, contributes to local decisions (politically active), gains
respect through work and ethical standards etc.
A good consumer on the other hand, seems to be more a self-idea, essentially someone who buys
and consumes a lot (financial idea), has little political interest – and probably defines themselves
(and others) by how they spend money and what they own.
It's clear that US, and global capitalism, prefers active consumers over active citizens, and
maybe it explains why the US has such a worthless and dysfunctional political process.
Some folks are completely unable to connect the dots even when spoon fed the evidence. You'll
note that some, in risible displays of quasi-intellectual arrogance, make virtually impossible
demands for proof, none of which they'll ever accept. Rather, they flock to self aggrandizing
mythology like flies to fresh sewage which the plutoligarchy produces nearly infinitely.
Your observations appear pretty accurate and self justifying I'd say.
Look up the film director Aaron Russo (recently deceased), discussing how David Rockefeller
tried to bring him over to the dark side. Rockefeller discussed for example the women's movement,
its engineering. Also, there's Aldous Huxley's speech The Ultimate Revolution, on how drugs are
the final solution to rabble troubles–we will think we're happy even in the most appalling societal
conditions.
I can only say Beware of Zinn, best friend of Chomsky, endlessly tauted by shysters like Amy
Goodman and Counterpunch. Like all liberal gatekeepers, he wouldn't touch 911. I saw him speak
not long before he died, and when questioned on this he said, 'That was a long time ago, let's
talk about now.'
This from a professed historian, and it was only 7 years after 911. He seemed to have the same
old Jewish agenda, make Europeans look really bad at all times. He was always on message, like
the shyster Chomsky. Sincerely probing for the truth was not part of his agenda; his truths were
highly selective, and such a colossal event as 911 concerned him not at all, with the ensuing
wars, Patriot Acts, bullshit war on Terror, etc etc
" capitalism has no interest in racism, misogyny, homophobia, xenophobia, or any other despotic
values (though it has no problem working with these values when they serve its broader strategic
purposes). Capitalism is an economic system, which we have elevated to a social system."
This is a typical Left Lie. Capitalism in its present internationalist phase absolutely requires
Anti-Racism to lubricate sales uh, internationally and domestically. We are all Equal.
Then, the ticking-off of the rest of the bad isms, and labeling them 'despotic' is another
Leftwing and poetic attack on more or less all of us white folks, who have largely invented Capitalism,
from a racialist point of view.
"Poetic" because it is an emotional appeal, not a rational argument. The other 'despotisms'
are not despotic, unless you claim, like I do that racial personalities are more, or less despotic,
with Whites being the least despotic. The Left totalitarian thinks emotional despotism's source
is political or statist. It are not. However, Capitalism has been far less despotic than communism,
etc.
Emotional Despotism is part of who Homo Sapiens is, and this emotional despotism is not racially
equal. Whites are the least despotic, and have organized law and rules to contain such despotism.
Systems arise naturally from the Human Condition, like it or not. The attempt here is to sully
the Capitalist system, and that is all it is. This article itself is despotic propaganda.
Arguably, human nature is despotic, and White civilization has attempted to limit our despotic
nature.
This is another story.
As for elevating capitalism into a 'social system' .this is somewhat true. However, that is
not totally bad, as capitalism delivers the goods, which is the first thing, after getting out
of bed.
The second thing, is having a conformable social environment, and that is where racial accord
enters.
People want familiar and trustworthy people around them and that is just the way human nature
is genetic similarity, etc.
Beyond that, the various Leftie complaints-without-end, are also just the way it is. And yes
they can be addressed and ameliorated to some degree, but human nature is not a System to be manipulated,
even thought the current crop of scientistic lefties talk a good storyline about epigenetics and
other Hopes, false of course, like communist planning which makes its first priority, Social Change
which is always despotic. Society takes care of itself, especially racial society.
As Senator Vail said about the 1924 Immigration Act which held the line against Immigration,
"if there is going to be any changing being done, we will do it and nobody else." That 'we' was
a White we.
Capitalism must be national. International capital is tyranny.
US oil companies make about five cents off a single gallon of gasoline, on the other hand US
Big Government taxes on a single gallon are around seventy-one cents for US states & rising, the
tax is now $1.00 per gallon for CA.
IOW, greedy US governments make fourteen to twenty times what oil companies make, and it is
the oil companies who make & deliver the vital product to the marketplace.
And that is just in the US. Have a look at Europe's taxes. My, my.
Some agendas require the "state sponsored" part to be hidden.
That is part of the reason why the constitutional convention was held in secret as well.
The cunning connivers who ram government down our throats don't like their designs exposed,
and it's an old trick which nearly always works.
Here's Aristophanes on the subject. His play is worth a read. Short and great satire on the
politicians of the day.
SAUSAGE-SELLER
No, Cleon, little you care for his reigning in Arcadia, it's to pillage and impose on the
allies at will that you reckon; y ou wish the war to conceal your rogueries as in a mist,
that Demos may see nothing of them, and harassed by cares, may only depend on yourself for
his bread. But if ever peace is restored to him, if ever he returns to his lands to comfort
himself once more with good cakes, to greet his cherished olives, he will know the blessings
you have kept him out of, even though paying him a salary; and, filled with hatred and rage,
he will rise, burning with desire to vote against you. You know this only too well; it is
for this you rock him to sleep with your lies.
The first loyalty of jews is supposed to be to jews.
Norman Finkelstein is called a traitor by jews, the Dutch jew Hamburger is called a traitor
by Dutch jews, he's the chairman of 'Een ander joodse geluid', best translated by 'another jewish
opinion', the organisation criticises Israel.
Jewish involvement in Sept 11 seems probable, the 'dancing Israelis', the assertion that most
jews working in the Twin Towers at the time were either sick or took a day off, the fact that
the Towers were jewish property, ready for a costly demolition, much abestos in the buildings,
thus the 'terrorist' act brought a great profit.
Can one expect a jew to expose things like this ?
On his book, I did not find inconsistencies with literature I already knew.
The merit of the book is listing many events that affected common people in the USA, and destroying
the myth that 'in the USA who is poor has only himself to blame'.
This nonsense becomes clear even from the diaries of Harold L Ickes, or from Jonathan Raban
Bad Land, 1997.
As for Zinn's criticism of the adored USA constitution, I read that Charles A Beard already
in 1919 resigned because he also criticised this constitution.
Indeed, in our countries about half the national income goes to the governments by taxes, this
is the reason a country like Denmark is the best country to live in.
"... Neoliberalism is a theory of political economic practices proposing that human well-being can best be advanced by the maximization of entrepreneurial freedoms within an institutional framework characterized by private property rights, individual liberty, unencumbered markets, and free trade. ..."
"... Furthermore, if markets do not exist (in areas such as education, health care, social security, or environmental pollution), then they must be created, by state action if necessary. ..."
"... State interventions in markets (once created) must be kept to a bare minimum because the state cannot possibly possess enough information to second-guess market signals (prices) and because powerful interests will inevitably distort and bias state interventions (particularly in democracies) for their own benefit. ..."
"... State after state, from the new ones that emerged from the collapse of the Soviet Union to old-style social democracies and welfare states such as New Zealand and Sweden, have embraced, sometimes voluntarily and sometimes in response to coercive pressures, some version of neoliberal theory and adjusted at least some of their policies and practices accordingly. Post apartheid South Africa quickly adopted the neoliberal frame and even contemporary China appears to be headed in that direction. Furthermore, advocates of the neoliberal mindset now occupy positions of considerable influence in education (universities and many "think tanks"), in the media, in corporate board rooms and financial institutions, in key state institutions (treasury departments, central banks), and also in those international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) that regulate global finance and commerce. Neoliberalism has, in short, become hegemonic as a mode of discourse and has pervasive effects on ways of thought and political-economic practices to the point where it has become incorporated into the commonsense way we interpret, live in, and understand the world. ..."
"... Neoliberalization has in effect swept across the world like a vast tidal wave of institutional reform and discursive adjustment. While plenty of evidence shows its uneven geographical development, no place can claim total immunity (with the exception of a few states such as North Korea). Furthermore, the rules of engagement now established through the WTO (governing international trade) and by the IMF (governing international finance) instantiate neoliberalism as a global set of rules. All states that sign on to the WTO and the IMF (and who can afford not to?) agree to abide (albeit with a "grace period" to permit smooth adjustment) by these rules or face severe penalties. ..."
"... For any system of thought to become dominant, it requires the articulation of fundamental concepts that become so deeply embedded in commonsense understandings that they are taken for granted and beyond question. For this to occur, not any old concepts will do. A conceptual apparatus has to be constructed that appeals almost naturally to our intuitions and instincts, to our values and our desires, as well as to the possibilities that seem to inhere in the social world we inhabit. The founding figures of neoliberal thought took political ideals of individual liberty and freedom as sacrosanct -- as the central values of civilization. And in so doing they chose wisely and well, for these are indeed compelling and greatly appealing concepts. Such values were threatened, they argued, not only by fascism, dictatorships, and communism, but also by all forms of state intervention that substituted collective judgments for those of individuals set free to choose. They then concluded that without "the diffused power and initiative associated with (private property and the competitive market) it is difficult to imagine a society in which freedom may be effectively preserved." 1 ..."
"... The U.S. answer was spelled out on September 19, 2003, when Paul Bremer, head of the Coalition Provisional Authority, promulgated four orders that included "the full privatization of public enterprises, full ownership rights by foreign firms of Iraqi U.S. businesses, full repatriation of foreign profits . . . the opening of Iraq's banks to foreign control, national treatment for foreign companies and . . . the elimination of nearly all trade barriers." 4 The orders were to apply to all areas of the economy, including public services, the media, manufacturing, services, transportation, finance, and construction. Only oil was exempt. A regressive tax system favored by conservatives called a flat tax was also instituted. The right to strike was outlawed and unions banned in key sectors. An Iraqi member of the Coalition Provisional Authority protested the forced imposition of "free market fundamentalism," describing it as "a flawed logic that ignores history." 5 Yet the interim Iraqi government appointed at the end of June 2004 was accorded no power to change or write new laws -- it could only confirm the decrees already promulgated. ..."
"... The redistributive tactics of neoliberalism are wide-ranging, sophisticated, frequently masked by ideological gambits, but devastating for the dignity and social well-being of vulnerable populations and territories. The wave of creative destruction neoliberalization has visited across the globe is unparalleled in the history of capitalism. Understandably, it has spawned resistance and a search for viable alternatives. ..."
Neoliberalism has become a hegemonic discourse with pervasive effects on ways of thought and
political-economic practices to the point where it is now part of the commonsense way we
interpret, live in, and understand the world. How did neoliberalism achieve such an exalted
status, and what does it stand for? In this article, the author contends that neoliberalism is
above all a project to restore class dominance to sectors that saw their fortunes threatened by
the ascent of social democratic endeavors in the aftermath of the Second World War. Although
neoliberalism has had limited effectiveness as an engine for economic growth, it has succeeded
in channeling wealth from subordinate classes to dominant ones and from poorer to richer
countries. This process has entailed the dismantling of institutions and narratives that
promoted more egalitarian distributive measures in the preceding era.
Neoliberalism is a theory of political economic practices proposing that human well-being
can best be advanced by the maximization of entrepreneurial freedoms within an institutional
framework characterized by private property rights, individual liberty, unencumbered markets,
and free trade. The role of the state is to create and preserve an institutional framework
appropriate to such practices. The state has to be concerned, for example, with the quality and
integrity of money. It must also set up military, defense, police, and juridical functions
required to secure private property rights and to support freely functioning markets.
Furthermore, if markets do not exist (in areas such as education, health care, social security,
or environmental pollution), then they must be created, by state action if necessary. But
beyond these tasks the state should not venture. State interventions in markets (once created)
must be kept to a bare minimum because the state cannot possibly possess enough information to
second-guess market signals (prices) and because powerful interests will inevitably distort and
bias state interventions (particularly in democracies) for their own benefit.
For a variety of reasons, the actual practices of neoliberalism frequently diverge from this
template. Nevertheless, there has everywhere been an emphatic turn, ostensibly led by the
Thatcher/Reagan revolutions in Britain and the United States, in political-economic practices
and thinking since the 1970s. State after state, from the new ones that emerged from the
collapse of the Soviet Union to old-style social democracies and welfare states such as New
Zealand and Sweden, have embraced, sometimes voluntarily and sometimes in response to coercive
pressures, some version of neoliberal theory and adjusted at least some of their policies and
practices accordingly. Post apartheid South Africa quickly adopted the neoliberal frame and
even contemporary China appears to be headed in that direction. Furthermore, advocates of the
neoliberal mindset now occupy positions of considerable influence in education (universities
and many "think tanks"), in the media, in corporate board rooms and financial institutions, in
key state institutions (treasury departments, central banks), and also in those international
institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) that regulate global finance and commerce. Neoliberalism has,
in short, become hegemonic as a mode of discourse and has pervasive effects on ways of thought
and political-economic practices to the point where it has become incorporated into the
commonsense way we interpret, live in, and understand the world.
Neoliberalization has in effect swept across the world like a vast tidal wave of
institutional reform and discursive adjustment. While plenty of evidence shows its uneven
geographical development, no place can claim total immunity (with the exception of a few states
such as North Korea). Furthermore, the rules of engagement now established through the WTO
(governing international trade) and by the IMF (governing international finance) instantiate
neoliberalism as a global set of rules. All states that sign on to the WTO and the IMF (and who
can afford not to?) agree to abide (albeit with a "grace period" to permit smooth adjustment)
by these rules or face severe penalties.
The creation of this neoliberal system has entailed much destruction, not only of prior
institutional frameworks and powers (such as the supposed prior state sovereignty over
political-economic affairs) but also of divisions of labor, social relations, welfare
provisions, technological mixes, ways of life, attachments to the land, habits of the heart,
ways of thought, and the like. Some assessment of the positives and negatives of this
neoliberal revolution is called for. In what follows, therefore, I will sketch in some
preliminary arguments as to how to both understand and evaluate this transformation in the way
global capitalism is working. This requires that we come to terms with the underlying forces,
interests, and agents that have propelled the neoliberal revolution forward with such
relentless intensity. To turn the neoliberal rhetoric against itself, we may reasonably ask, In
whose particular interests is it that the state take a neoliberal stance and in what ways have
those interests used neoliberalism to benefit themselves rather than, as is claimed, everyone,
everywhere?
In whose particular interests is it that the state take a neoliberal stance, and in what
ways have those interests used neoliberalism to benefit themselves rather than, as is claimed,
everyone, everywhere?
For any system of thought to become dominant, it requires the articulation of fundamental
concepts that become so deeply embedded in commonsense understandings that they are taken for
granted and beyond question. For this to occur, not any old concepts will do. A conceptual
apparatus has to be constructed that appeals almost naturally to our intuitions and instincts,
to our values and our desires, as well as to the possibilities that seem to inhere in the
social world we inhabit. The founding figures of neoliberal thought took political ideals of
individual liberty and freedom as sacrosanct -- as the central values of civilization. And in
so doing they chose wisely and well, for these are indeed compelling and greatly appealing
concepts. Such values were threatened, they argued, not only by fascism, dictatorships, and
communism, but also by all forms of state intervention that substituted collective judgments
for those of individuals set free to choose. They then concluded that without "the diffused
power and initiative associated with (private property and the competitive market) it is
difficult to imagine a society in which freedom may be effectively preserved." 1
Setting aside the question of whether the final part of the argument necessarily follows
from the first, there can be no doubt that the concepts of individual liberty and freedom are
powerful in their own right, even beyond those terrains where the liberal tradition has had a
strong historical presence. Such ideals empowered the dissident movements in Eastern Europe and
the Soviet Union before the end of the cold war as well as the students in Tiananmen Square.
The student movement that swept the world in 1968 -- from Paris and Chicago to Bangkok and
Mexico City -- was in part animated by the quest for greater freedoms of speech and individual
choice. These ideals have proven again and again to be a mighty historical force for
change.
It is not surprising, therefore, that appeals to freedom and liberty surround the United
States rhetorically at every turn and populate all manner of contemporary political manifestos.
This has been particularly true of the United States in recent years. On the first anniversary
of the attacks now known as 9/11, President Bush wrote an op-ed piece for the New York Times
that extracted ideas from a U.S. National Defense Strategy document issued shortly thereafter.
"A peaceful world of growing freedom," he wrote, even as his cabinet geared up to go to war
with Iraq, "serves American long-term interests, reflects enduring American ideals and unites
Americas allies." "Humanity," he concluded, "holds in its hands the opportunity to offer
freedom s triumph over all its age-old foes," and "the United States welcomes its
responsibilities to lead in this great mission." Even more emphatically, he later proclaimed
that "freedom is the Almighty's gift to every man and woman in this world" and "as the greatest
power on earth [the United States has] an obligation to help the spread of freedom."
2
So when all of the other reasons for engaging in a preemptive war against Iraq were proven
fallacious or at least wanting, the Bush administration increasingly appealed to the idea that
the freedom conferred upon Iraq was in and of itself an adequate justification for the war. But
what sort of freedom was envisaged here, since, as the cultural critic Matthew Arnold long ago
thoughtfully observed, "Freedom is a very good horse to ride, but to ride somewhere."
3 To what destination, then, were the Iraqi people expected to ride the horse of
freedom so selflessly conferred to them by force of arms?
The U.S. answer was spelled out on September 19, 2003, when Paul Bremer, head of the
Coalition Provisional Authority, promulgated four orders that included "the full privatization
of public enterprises, full ownership rights by foreign firms of Iraqi U.S. businesses, full
repatriation of foreign profits . . . the opening of Iraq's banks to foreign control, national
treatment for foreign companies and . . . the elimination of nearly all trade barriers." 4 The orders were to apply to all areas of the economy, including public services,
the media, manufacturing, services, transportation, finance, and construction. Only oil was
exempt. A regressive tax system favored by conservatives called a flat tax was also instituted.
The right to strike was outlawed and unions banned in key sectors. An Iraqi member of the
Coalition Provisional Authority protested the forced imposition of "free market
fundamentalism," describing it as "a flawed logic that ignores history." 5 Yet the
interim Iraqi government appointed at the end of June 2004 was accorded no power to change or
write new laws -- it could only confirm the decrees already promulgated.
What the United States evidently sought to impose upon Iraq was a full-fledged neoliberal
state apparatus whose fundamental mission was and is to facilitate conditions for profitable
capital accumulation for all comers, Iraqis and foreigners alike. The Iraqis were, in short,
expected to ride their horse of freedom straight into the corral of neoliberalism. According to
neoliberal theory, Bremers decrees are both necessary and sufficient for the creation of wealth
and therefore for the improved well-being of the Iraqi people. They are the proper foundation
for an adequate rule of law, individual liberty, and democratic governance. The insurrection
that followed can in part be interpreted as Iraqi resistance to being driven into the embrace
of free market fundamentalism against their own will
It is useful to recall, however, that the first great experiment with neoliberal state
formation was Chile after Augusto Pinochet s coup almost thirty years to the day before Bremers
decrees were issued, on the "little September 11th" of 1973. The coup, against the
democratically elected and leftist social democratic government of Salvador Allende, was
strongly backed by the CIA and supported by U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. It
violently repressed all left-of-center social movements and political organizations and
dismantled all forms of popular organization, such as community health centers in poorer
neighborhoods. The labor market was "freed" from regulatory or institutional restraints --
trade union power, for example. But by 1973, the policies of import substitution that had
formerly dominated in Latin American attempts at economic regeneration, and that had succeeded
to some degree in Brazil after the military coup of 1964, had fallen into disrepute. With the
world economy in the midst of a serious recession, something new was plainly called for. A
group of U.S. economists known as "the Chicago boys," because of their attachment to the
neoliberal theories of Milton Friedman, then teaching at the University of Chicago, were
summoned to help reconstruct the Chilean economy. They did so along free-market lines,
privatizing public assets, opening up natural resources to private exploitation, and
facilitating foreign direct investment and free trade. The right of foreign companies to
repatriate profits from their Chilean operations was guaranteed. Export-led growth was favored
over import substitution. The subsequent revival of the Chilean economy in terms of growth,
capital accumulation, and high rates of return on foreign investments provided evidence upon
which the subsequent turn to more open neoliberal policies in both Britain (under Thatcher) and
the United States (under Reagan) could be modeled. Not for the first time, a brutal experiment
in creative destruction carried out in the periphery became a model for the formulation of
policies in the center. 6
The fact that two such obviously similar restructurings of the state apparatus occurred at
such different times in quite different parts of the world under the coercive influence of the
United States might be taken as indicative that the grim reach of U.S. imperial power might lie
behind the rapid proliferation of neoliberal state forms throughout the world from the
mid-1970s onward. But U.S. power and recklessness do not constitute the whole story. It was not
the United States, after all, that forced Margaret Thatcher to take the neoliberal path in
1979. And during the early 1980s, Thatcher was a far more consistent advocate of neoliberalism
than Reagan ever proved to be. Nor was it the United States that forced China in 1978 to follow
the path that has over time brought it closer and closer to the embrace of neoliberalism. It
would be hard to attribute the moves toward neoliberalism in India and Sweden in 1992 to the
imperial reach of the United States. The uneven geographical development of neoliberalism on
the world stage has been a very complex process entailing multiple determinations and not a
little chaos and confusion. So why, then, did the neoliberal turn occur, and what were the
forces compelling it onward to the point where it has now become a hegemonic system within
global capitalism?
Toward the end of the 1960s, global capitalism was falling into disarray. A significant
recession occurred in early 1973 -- the first since the great slump of the 1930s. The oil
embargo and oil price hike that followed later that year in the wake of the Arab-Israeli war
exacerbated critical problems. The embedded capitalism of the postwar period, with its heavy
emphasis on an uneasy compact between capital and labor brokered by an interventionist state
that paid great attention to the social (i.e., welfare programs) and individual wage, was no
longer working. The Bretton Woods accord set up to regulate international trade and finance was
finally abandoned in favor of floating exchange rates in 1973. That system had delivered high
rates of growth in the advanced capitalist countries and generated some spillover benefits --
most obviously to Japan but also unevenly across South America and to some other countries of
South East Asia -- during the "golden age" of capitalism in the 1950s and early 1960s. By the
next decade, however, the preexisting arrangements were exhausted and a new alternative was
urgently needed to restart the process of capital accumulation. 7 How and why
neoliberalism emerged victorious as an answer to that quandary is a complex story. In
retrospect, it may seem as if neoliberalism had been inevitable, but at the time no one really
knew or understood with any certainty what kind of response would work and how.
The world stumbled toward neoliberalism through a series of gyrations and chaotic motions
that eventually converged on the so-called 'Washington Consensus" in the 1990s. The uneven
geographical development of neoliberalism, and its partial and lopsided application from one
country to another, testifies to its tentative character and the complex ways in which
political forces, historical traditions, and existing institutional arrangements all shaped why
and how the process actually occurred on the ground.
There is, however, one element within this transition that deserves concerted attention. The
crisis of capital accumulation of the 1970s affected everyone through the combination of rising
unemployment and accelerating inflation. Discontent was widespread, and the conjoining of labor
and urban social movements throughout much of the advanced capitalist world augured a socialist
alternative to the social compromise between capital and labor that had grounded capital
accumulation so successfully in the postwar period. Communist and socialist parties were
gaining ground across much of Europe, and even in the United States popular forces were
agitating for widespread reforms and state interventions in everything ranging from
environmental protection to occupational safety and health and consumer protection from
corporate malfeasance. There was. in this, a clear political threat to ruling classes
everywhere, both in advanced capitalist countries, like Italy and France, and in many
developing countries, like Mexico and Argentina.
Beyond political changes, the economic threat to the position of ruling classes was now
becoming palpable. One condition of the postwar settlement in almost all countries was to
restrain the economic power of the upper classes and for labor to be accorded a much larger
share of the economic pie. In the United States, for example, the share of the national income
taken by the top 1 percent of earners fell from a prewar high of 16 percent to less than 8
percent by the end of the Second World War and stayed close to that level for nearly three
decades. While growth was strong such restraints seemed not to matter, but when growth
collapsed in the 1970s, even as real interest rates went negative and dividends and profits
shrunk, ruling classes felt threatened. They had to move decisively if they were to protect
their power from political and economic annihilation.
The coup d'état in Chile and the military takeover in Argentina, both fomented and
led internally by ruling elites with U.S. support, provided one kind of solution. But the
Chilean experiment with neoliberalism demonstrated that the benefits of revived capital
accumulation were highly skewed. The country and its ruling elites along with foreign investors
did well enough while the people in general fared poorly. This has been such a persistent
effect of neoliberal policies over time as to be regarded a structural component of the whole
project. Dumenil and Levy have gone so far as to argue that neoliberalism was from the very
beginning an endeavor to restore class power to the richest strata in the population. They
showed how from the mid-1980s onwards, the share of the top 1 percent of income earners in the
United States soared rapidly to reach 15 percent by the end of the century. Other data show
that the top 0.1 percent of income earners increased their share of the national income from 2
percent in 1978 to more than 6 percent by 1999. Yet another measure shows that the ratio of the
median compensation of workers to the salaries of chief executive officers increased from just
over thirty to one in 1970 to more than four hundred to one by 2000. Almost certainly, with the
Bush administrations tax cuts now taking effect, the concentration of income and of wealth in
the upper echelons of society is continuing apace. 8
And the United States is not alone in this: the top 1 percent of income earners in Britain
doubled their share of the national income from 6.5 percent to 13 percent over the past twenty
years. When we look further afield, we see extraordinary concentrations of wealth and power
within a small oligarchy after the application of neoliberal shock therapy in Russia and a
staggering surge in income inequalities and wealth in China as it adopts neoliberal practices.
While there are exceptions to this trend -- several East and Southeast Asian countries have
contained income inequalities within modest bounds, as have France and the Scandinavian
countries -- the evidence suggests that the neoliberal turn is in some way and to some degree
associated with attempts to restore or reconstruct upper-class power.
We can, therefore, examine the history of neoliberalism either as a utopian project
providing a theoretical template for the reorganization of international capitalism or as a
political scheme aimed at reestablishing the conditions for capital accumulation and the
restoration of class power. In what follows, I shall argue that the last of these objectives
has dominated. Neoliberalism has not proven effective at revitalizing global capital
accumulation, but it has succeeded in restoring class power. As a consequence, the theoretical
utopianism of the neoliberal argument has worked more as a system of justification and
legitimization. The principles of neoliberalism are quickly abandoned whenever they conflict
with this class project.
Neoliberalism has not proven effective at revitalizing global capital accumulation, but it
has succeeded in restoring class power.
If there were movements to restore class power within global capitalism, then how were they
enacted and by whom? The answer to that question in countries such as Chile and Argentina was
simple: a swift, brutal, and self-assured military coup backed by the upper classes and the
subsequent fierce repression of all solidarities created within the labor and urban social
movements that had so threatened their power. Elsewhere, as in Britain and Mexico in 1976, it
took the gentle prodding of a not yet fiercely neoliberal International Monetary Fund to push
countries toward practices -- although by no means policy commitment -- to cut back on social
expenditures and welfare programs to reestablish fiscal probity. In Britain, of course,
Margaret Thatcher later took up the neoliberal cudgel with a vengeance in 1979 and wielded it
to great effect, even though she never fully overcame opposition within her own party and could
never effectively challenge such centerpieces of the welfare state as the National Health
Service. Interestingly, it was only in 2004 that the Labour Government dared to introduce a fee
structure into higher education. The process of neoliberalization has been halting,
geographically uneven, and heavily influenced by class structures and other social forces
moving for or against its central propositions within particular state formations and even
within particular sectors, for example, health or education. 9
It is informative to look more closely at how the process unfolded in the United States,
since this case was pivotal as an influence on other and more recent transformations. Various
threads of power intertwined to create a transition that culminated in the mid-1990s with the
takeover of Congress by the Republican Party. That feat represented in fact a neoliberal
"Contract with America" as a program for domestic action. Before that dramatic denouement,
however, many steps were taken, each building upon and reinforcing the other.
To begin with, by 1970 or so, there was a growing sense among the U.S. upper classes that
the anti-business and anti-imperialist climate that had emerged toward the end of the 1960s had
gone too far. In a celebrated memo, Lewis Powell (about to be elevated to the Supreme Court by
Richard Nixon) urged the American Chamber of Commerce in 1971 to mount a collective campaign to
demonstrate that what was good for business was good for America. Shortly thereafter, a shadowy
but influential Business Round Table was formed that still exists and plays a significant
strategic role in Republican Party politics. Corporate political action committees, legalized
under the post-Watergate campaign finance laws of 1974, proliferated like wildfire. With their
activities protected under the First Amendment as a form of free speech in a 1976 Supreme Court
decision, the systematic capture of the Republican Party as a class instrument of collective
(rather than particular or individual) corporate and financial power began. But the Republican
Party needed a popular base, and that proved more problematic to achieve. The incorporation of
leaders of the Christian right, depicted as a moral majority, together with the Business Round
Table provided the solution to that problem. A large segment of a disaffected, insecure, and
largely white working class was persuaded to vote consistently against its own material
interests on cultural (anti-liberal, anti-Black, antifeminist and antigay), nationalist and
religious grounds. By the mid-1990s, the Republican Party had lost almost all of its liberal
elements and become a homogeneous right-wing machine connecting the financial resources of
large corporate capital with a populist base, the Moral Majority, that was particularly strong
in the U.S. South. 10
The second element in the U.S. transition concerned fiscal discipline. The recession of 1973
to 1975 diminished tax revenues at all levels at a time of rising demand for social
expenditures. Deficits emerged everywhere as a key problem. Something had to be done about the
fiscal crisis of the state; the restoration of monetary discipline was essential. That
conviction empowered financial institutions that controlled the lines of credit to government.
In 1975, they refused to roll over New York's debt and forced that city to the edge of
bankruptcy. A powerful cabal of bankers joined together with the state to tighten control over
the city. This meant curbing the aspirations of municipal unions, layoffs in public employment,
wage freezes, cutbacks in social provision (education, public health, and transport services),
and the imposition of user fees (tuition was introduced in the CUNY university system for the
first time). The bailout entailed the construction of new institutions that had first rights to
city tax revenues in order to pay off bond holders: whatever was left went into the city budget
for essential services. The final indignity was a requirement that municipal unions invest
their pension funds in city bonds. This ensured that unions moderate their demands to avoid the
danger of losing their pension funds through city bankruptcy.
Such actions amounted to a coup d'état by financial institutions against the
democratically elected government of New York City, and they were every bit as effective as the
military overtaking that had earlier occurred in Chile. Much of the city's social
infrastructure was destroyed, and the physical foundations (e.g., the transit system)
deteriorated markedly for lack of investment or even maintenance. The management of New York's
fiscal crisis paved the way for neoliberal practices both domestically under Ronald Reagan and
internationally through the International Monetary Fund throughout the 1980s. It established a
principle that, in the event of a conflict between the integrity of financial institutions and
bondholders on one hand and the well-being of the citizens on the other, the former would be
given preference. It hammered home the view that the role of government was to create a good
business climate rather than look to the needs and well-being of the population at large.
Fiscal redistributions to benefit the upper classes resulted in the midst of a general fiscal
crisis.
Whether all the agents involved in producing this compromise in New York understood it at
the time as a tactic for the restoration of upper-class power is an open question. The need to
maintain fiscal discipline is a matter of deep concern in its own right and does not have to
lead to the restitution of class dominance. It is unlikely, therefore, that Felix Rohatyn, the
key merchant banker who brokered the deal between the city, the state, and the financial
institutions, had the reinstatement of class power in mind. But this objective probably was
very much in the thoughts of the investment bankers. It was almost certainly the aim of
then-Secretary of the Treasury William Simon who, having watched the progress of events in
Chile with approval, refused to give aid to New York and openly stated that he wanted that city
to suffer so badly that no other city in the nation would ever dare take on similar social
obligations again. 11
The third element in the U.S. transition entailed an ideological assault upon the media and
upon educational institutions. Independent "think tanks" financed by wealthy individuals and
corporate donors proliferated -- the Heritage Foundation in the lead -- to prepare an
ideological onslaught aimed at persuading the public of the commonsense character of neoliberal
propositions. A flood of policy papers and proposals and a veritable army of well-paid hired
lieutenants trained to promote neoliberal ideas coupled with the corporate acquisition of media
channels effectively transformed the discursive climate in the United States by the mid-1980s.
The project to "get government off the backs of the people" and to shrink government to the
point where it could be "drowned in a bathtub" was loudly proclaimed. With respect to this, the
promoters of the new gospel found a ready audience in that wing of the 1968 movement whose goal
was greater individual liberty and freedom from state power and the manipulations of monopoly
capital. The libertarian argument for neoliberalism proved a powerful force for change. To the
degree that capitalism reorganized to both open a space for individual entrepreneurship and
switch its efforts to satisfy innumerable niche markets, particularly those defined by sexual
liberation, that were spawned out of an increasingly individualized consumerism, so it could
match words with deeds.
This carrot of individualized entrepreneurship and consumerism was backed by the big stick
wielded by the state and financial institutions against that other wing of the 1968 movement
whose members had sought social justice through collective negotiation and social solidarities.
Reagan's destruction of the air traffic controllers (PATCO) in 1980 and Margaret Thatchers
defeat of the British miners in 1984 were crucial moments in the global turn toward
neoliberalism. The assault upon institutions, such as trade unions and welfare rights
organizations, that sought to protect and further working-class interests was as broad as it
was deep. The savage cutbacks in social expenditures and the welfare state, and the passing of
all responsibility for their well-being to individuals and their families proceeded apace. But
these practices did not and could not stop at national borders. After 1980, the United States,
now firmly committed to neoliberalization and clearly backed by Britain, sought, through a mix
of leadership, persuasion -- the economics departments of U.S. research universities played a
major role in training many of the economists from around the world in neoliberal principles --
and coercion to export neoliberalization far and wide. The purge of Keynesian economists and
their replacement by neoliberal monetarists in the International Monetary Fund in 1982
transformed the U.S.-dominated IMF into a prime agent of neoliberalization through its
structural adjustment programs visited upon any state (and there were many in the 1980s and
1990s) that required its help with debt repayments. The Washington Consensus that was forged in
the 1990s and the negotiating rules set up under the World Trade Organization in 1998 confirmed
the global turn toward neoliberal practices. 12
The new international compact also depended upon the reanimation and reconfiguration of the
U.S. imperial tradition. That tradition had been forged in Central America in the 1920s, as a
form of domination without colonies. Independent republics could be kept under the thumb of the
United States and effectively act, in the best of cases, as proxies for U.S. interests through
the support of strongmen -- like Somoza in Nicaragua, the Shah in Iran, and Pinochet in Chile
-- and a coterie of followers backed by military assistance and financial aid. Covert aid was
available to promote the rise to power of such leaders, but by the 1970s it became clear that
something else was needed: the opening of markets, of new spaces for investment, and clear
fields where financial powers could operate securely. This entailed a much closer integration
of the global economy with a well-defined financial architecture. The creation of new
institutional practices, such as those set out by the IMF and the WTO, provided convenient
vehicles through which financial and market power could be exercised. The model required
collaboration among the top capitalist powers and the Group of Seven (G7), bringing Europe and
Japan into alignment with the United States to shape the global financial and trading system in
ways that effectively forced all other nations to submit. "Rogue nations," defined as those
that failed to conform to these global rules, could then be dealt with by sanctions or coercive
and even military force if necessary. In this way, U.S. neoliberal imperialist strategies were
articulated through a global network of power relations, one effect of which was to permit the
U.S. upper classes to exact financial tribute and command rents from the rest of the world as a
means to augment their already hegemonic control. 13
In what ways has neoliberalization resolved the problems of flagging capital accumulation?
Its actual record in stimulating economic growth is dismal. Aggregate growth rates stood at 3.5
percent or so in the 1960s and even during the troubled 1970s fell to only 2.4 percent. The
subsequent global growth rates of 1.4 percent and 1.1 percent for the 1980s and 1990s, and a
rate that barely touches 1 percent since 2000, indicate that neoliberalism has broadly failed
to
In what ways has neoliberalization resolved the problems of flagging capital accumulation?
Its actual record in stimulating economic growth is dismal. Aggregate growth rates stood at 3.5
percent or so in the 1960s and even during the troubled 1970s fell to only 2.4 percent. The
subsequent global growth rates of 1.4 percent and 1.1 percent for the 1980s and 1990s, and a
rate that barely touches 1 percent since 2000, indicate that neoliberalism has broadly failed
to stimulate worldwide growth. 14 Even if we exclude from this calculation the
catastrophic effects of the collapse of the Russian and some Central European economies in the
wake of the neoliberal shock therapy treatment of the 1990s, global economic performance from
the standpoint of restoring the conditions of general capital accumulation has been weak.
Despite their rhetoric about curing sick economies, neither Britain nor the United States
achieved high economic performance in the 1980s. That decade belonged to Japan, the East Asian
"Tigers," and West Germany as powerhouses of the global economy. Such countries were very
successful, but their radically different institutional arrangements make it difficult to pin
their achievements on neoliberalism. The West German Bundesbank had taken a strong monetarist
line (consistent with neoliberalism) for more than two decades, a fact suggesting that there is
no necessary connection between monetarism per se and the quest to restore class power. In West
Germany, the unions remained strong and wage levels stayed relatively high alongside the
construction of a progressive welfare state. One of the effects of this combination was to
stimulate a high rate of technological innovation that kept West Germany well ahead in the
field of international competition. Export-led production moved the country forward as a global
leader.
In Japan, independent unions were weak or nonexistent, but state investment in technological
and organizational change and the tight relationship between corporations and financial
institutions (an arrangement that also proved felicitous in West Germany) generated an
astonishing export-led growth performance, very much at the expense of other capitalist
economies such as the United Kingdom and the United States. Such growth as there was in the
1980s (and the aggregate rate of growth in the world was lower even than that of the troubled
1970s) did not depend, therefore, on neoliberalization. Many European states therefore resisted
neoliberal reforms and increasingly found ways to preserve much of their social democratic
heritage while moving, in some cases fairly successfully, toward the West German model. In
Asia, the Japanese model implanted under authoritarian systems of governance in South Korea,
Taiwan, and Singapore also proved viable and consistent with reasonable equality of
distribution. It was only in the 1990s that neoliberalization began to pay off for both the
United States and Britain. This happened in the midst of a long-drawn-out period of deflation
in Japan and relative stagnation in a newly unified Germany. Up for debate is whether the
Japanese recession occurred as a simple result of competitive pressures or whether it was
engineered by financial agents in the United States to humble the Japanese economy.
So why, then, in the face of this patchy if not dismal record, have so many been persuaded
that neoliberalization is a successful solution? Over and beyond the persistent stream of
propaganda emanating from the neoliberal think tanks and suffusing the media, two material
reasons stand out. First, neoliberalization has been accompanied by increasing volatility
within global capitalism. That success was to materialize somewhere obscured the reality that
neoliberalism was generally failing. Periodic episodes of growth interspersed with phases of
creative destruction, usually registered as severe financial crises. Argentina was opened up to
foreign capital and privatization in the 1990s and for several years was the darling of Wall
Street, only to collapse into disaster as international capital withdrew at the end of the
decade. Financial collapse and social devastation was quickly followed by a long political
crisis. Financial turmoil proliferated all over the developing world, and in some instances,
such as Brazil and Mexico, repeated waves of structural adjustment and austerity led to
economic paralysis.
On the other hand, neoliberalism has been a huge success from the standpoint of the upper
classes. It has either restored class position to ruling elites, as in the United States and
Britain, or created conditions for capitalist class formation, as in China, India, Russia, and
elsewhere. Even countries that have suffered extensively from neoliberalization have seen the
massive reordering of class structures internally. The wave of privatization that came to
Mexico with the Salinas de Gortari administration in 1992 spawned unprecedented concentrations
of wealth in the hands of a few people (Carlos Slim, tor example, who took over the state
telephone system and became an instant billionaire).
With the media dominated by upper-class interests, the myth could be propagated that certain
sectors failed because they were not competitive enough, thereby setting the stage for even
more neoliberal reforms. Increased social inequality was necessary to encourage entrepreneurial
risk and innovation, and these, in turn, conferred competitive advantage and stimulated growth.
If conditions among the lower classes deteriorated, it was because they failed for personal and
cultural reasons to enhance their own human capital through education, the acquisition of a
protestant work ethic, and submission to work discipline and flexibility. In short, problems
arose because of the lack of competitive strength or because of personal, cultural, and
political failings. In a Spencerian world, the argument went, only the fittest should and do
survive. Systemic problems were masked under a blizzard of ideological pronouncements and a
plethora of localized crises.
If the main effect of neoliberalism has been redistributive rather than generative, then
ways had to be found to transfer assets and channel wealth and income either from the mass of
the population toward the upper classes or from vulnerable to richer countries. I have
elsewhere provided an account of these processes under the rubric of accumulation by
dispossession. 15 By this, I mean the continuation and proliferation of accretion
practices that Marx had designated as "primitive" or "original" during the rise of capitalism.
These include
(1) the commodification and privatization of land and me forceful expulsion or peasant
populations {as in Mexico and India in recent times);
(2) conversion of various forms of property rights (common, collective, state, etc.) into
exclusively private property rights;
(3) suppression of rights to the commons;
(4) commodification of labor power and the suppression of alternative (indigenous) forms of
production and consumption;
(5) colonial, neocolonial, and imperial processes of appropriation of assets (including
natural resources); (6) monetization of exchange and taxation, particularly of land;
(7) the slave trade (which continues, particularly in the sex industry); and
(8) usury, the national debt, and, most devastating of all, the use of the credit system as
radical means of primitive accumulation.
The state, with its monopoly of violence and definitions of legality, plays a crucial role
in backing and promoting these processes. To this list of mechanisms, we may now add a raft of
additional techniques, such as the extraction of rents from patents and intellectual property
rights and the diminution or erasure of various forms of communal property rights -- such as
state pensions, paid vacations, access to education, and health care -- won through a
generation or more of social democratic struggles. The proposal to privatize all state pension
rights (pioneered in Chile under Augusto Pinochet s dictatorship) is, for example, one of the
cherished objectives of neoliberals in the United States.
In the cases of China and Russia, it might be reasonable to refer to recent events in
"primitive" and "original" terms, but the practices that restored class power to capitalist
elites in the United States and elsewhere are best described as an ongoing process of
accumulation by dispossession that grew rapidly under neoliberalism. In what follows, I isolate
four main elements.
1. Privatization
The corporatization, commodification, and privatization of hitherto public assets have been
signal features of the neoliberal project. Its primary aim has been to open up new fields for
capital accumulation in domains formerly regarded off-limits to the calculus of profitability.
Public utilities of all lands (water, telecommunications, transportation), social welfare
provision (public housing, education, health care, pensions), public institutions (such as
universities, research laboratories, prisons), and even warfare (as illustrated by the "army"
of private contractors operating alongside the armed forces in Iraq) have all been privatized
to some degree throughout the capitalist world.
Intellectual property rights established through the so-called TRIPS (Trade Related Aspects
of Intellectual Property Rights) agreement within the WTO defines genetic materials, seed
plasmas, and all manner of other products as private property. Rents for use can then be
extracted from populations whose practices had played a crucial role in the development of such
genetic materials. Bio-piracy is rampant, and the pillaging of the worlds stockpile of genetic
resources is well under way to the benefit of a few large pharmaceutical companies. The
escalating depletion of the global environmental commons (land, air, water) and proliferating
habitat degradations that preclude anything but capital-intensive modes of agricultural
production have likewise resulted from the wholesale commodification of nature in all its
forms. The commodification (through tourism) of cultural forms, histories, and intellectual
creativity entails wholesale dispossessions (the music industry is notorious for the
appropriation and exploitation of grassroots culture and creativity). As in the past, the power
of the state is frequently used to force such processes through even against popular will. The
rolling back of regulatory frameworks designed to protect labor and the environment from
degradation has entailed the loss of rights. The reversion of common property rights won
through years of hard class struggle (the right to a state pension, to welfare, to national
health care) into the private domain has been one of the most egregious of all policies of
dispossession pursued in the name of neoliberal orthodoxy.
All of these processes amount to the transfer of assets from the public and popular realms
to the private and class-privileged domains. Privatization, Arundhati Roy argued with respect
to the Indian case, entails "the transfer of productive public assets from the state to private
companies. Productive assets include natural resources: earth, forest, water, air. These are
the assets that the state holds in trust for the people it represents. ... To snatch these away
and sell them as stock to private companies is a process of barbaric dispossession on a scale
that has no parallel in history." 16
2. Financialization
The strong financial wave that set in after 1980 has been marked by its speculative and
predatory style. The total daily turnover of financial transactions in international markets
that stood at $2.3 billion in 1983 had risen to $130 billion by 2001. This $40 trillion annual
turnover in 2001 compares to the estimated $800 billion that would be required to support
international trade and productive investment flows. 17 Deregulation allowed the
financial system to become one of the main centers of redistributive activity through
speculation, predation, fraud, and thievery. Stock promotions; Ponzi schemes; structured asset
destruction through inflation; asset stripping through mergers and acquisitions; and the
promotion of debt incumbency that reduced whole populations, even in the advanced capitalist
countries, to debt peonage -- to say nothing of corporate fraud and dispossession of assets,
such as the raiding of pension hinds and their decimation by stock and corporate collapses
through credit and stock manipulations -- are all features of the capitalist financial
system.
The emphasis on stock values, which arose after bringing together the interests of owners
and managers of capital through the remuneration of the latter in stock options, led, as we now
know, to manipulations in the market that created immense wealth for a few at the expense of
the many. The spectacular collapse of Enron was emblematic of a general process that deprived
many of their livelihoods and pension rights. Beyond this, we also must look at the speculative
raiding carried out by hedge funds and other major instruments of finance capital that formed
the real cutting edge of accumulation by dispossession on the global stage, even as they
supposedly conferred the positive benefit to the capitalist class of spreading risks.
3. The management and manipulation of crises
Beyond the speculative and often fraudulent froth that characterizes much of neoliberal
financial manipulation, there lies a deeper process that entails the springing of the debt trap
as a primary means of accumulation by dispossession. Crisis creation, management, and
manipulation on the world stage has evolved into the fine art of deliberative redistribution of
wealth from poor countries to the rich. By suddenly raising interest rates in 1979, Paul
Volcker, then chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, raised the proportion of foreign earnings
that borrowing countries had to put to debt-interest payments. Forced into bankruptcy,
countries like Mexico had to agree to structural adjustment. While proclaiming its role as a
noble leader organizing bailouts to keep global capital accumulation stable and on track, the
United States could also open the way to pillage the Mexican economy through deployment of its
superior financial power under conditions of local crisis. This was what the U.S. Treasury/Wall
Street/IMF complex became expert at doing everywhere. Volker s successor, Alan Greenspan,
resorted to similar tactics several times in the 1990s. Debt crises in individual countries,
uncommon in the 1960s, became frequent during the 1980s and 1990s. Hardly any developing
country remained untouched and in some cases, as in Latin America, such crises were frequent
enough to be considered endemic. These
debt crises were orchestrated, managed, and controlled both to rationalize the system and to
redistribute assets during the 1980s and 1990s. Wade and Veneroso captured the essence of this
trend when they wrote of the Asian crisis -- provoked initially by the operation of U.S.-based
hedge funds -- of 1997 and 1998:
Financial crises have always caused transfers of ownership and power to those who keep
their own assets intact and who are in a position to create credit, and the Asian crisis is
no exception . . . there is no doubt that Western and Japanese corporations are the big
winners. . . . The combination of massive devaluations pushed financial liberalization, and
IMF-facilitated recovery may even precipitate the biggest peacetime transfer of assets from
domestic to foreign owners in the past fifty years anywhere in the world, dwarfing the
transfers from domestic to U.S. owners in Latin America in the 1980s or in Mexico after 1994.
One recalls the statement attributed to Andrew Mellon: "In a depression assets return to
their rightful owners." 18
The analogy to the deliberate creation of unemployment to produce a pool of low-wage surplus
labor convenient for further accumulation is precise. Valuable assets are thrown out of use and
lose their value. They lie fallow and dormant until capitalists possessed of liquidity choose
to seize upon them and breathe new life into them. The danger, however, is that crises can spin
out of control and become generalized, or that revolts will arise against the system that
creates them. One of the prime functions of state interventions and of international
institutions is to orchestrate crises and devaluations in ways that permit accumulation by
dispossession to occur without sparking a general collapse or popular revolt. The structural
adjustment program administered by the Wall Street/Treasury/ IMF complex takes care of the
first function. It is the job of the comprador neoliberal state apparatus (backed by military
assistance from the imperial powers) to ensure that insurrections do not occur in whichever
country has been raided. Yet signs of popular revolt have emerged, first with the Zapatista
uprising in Mexico in 1994 and later in the generalized discontent that informed
anti-globalization movements such as the one that culminated in Seattle in 1999.
4. State redistributions
The state, once transformed into a neoliberal set of institutions, becomes a prime agent of
redistributive policies, reversing the flow from upper to lower classes that had been
implemented during the preceding social democratic era. It does this in the first instance
through privatization schemes and cutbacks in government expenditures meant to support the
social wage. Even when privatization appears as beneficial to the lower classes, the long-term
effects can be negative. At first blush, for example, Thatchers program for the privatization
of social housing in Britain appeared as a gift to the lower classes whose members could now
convert from rental to ownership at a relatively low cost, gain control over a valuable asset,
and augment their wealth. But once the transfer was accomplished, housing speculation took over
particularly in prime central locations, eventually bribing or forcing low-income populations
out to the periphery in cities like London and turning erstwhile working-class housing estates
into centers of intense gentrification. The loss of affordable housing in central areas
produced homelessness for many and extraordinarily long commutes for those who did have
low-paying service jobs. The privatization of the ejidos (indigenous common property rights in
land under the Mexican constitution) in Mexico, which became a central component of the
neoliberal program set up during the 1990s, has had analogous effects on the Mexican peasantry,
forcing many rural dwellers into the cities in search of employment. The Chinese state has
taken a whole series of draconian measures through which assets have been conferred upon a
small elite to the detriment of the masses.
The neoliberal state also seeks redistributions through a variety of other means such as
revisions in the tax code to benefit returns on investment rather than incomes and wages,
promotion of regressive elements in the tax code (such as sales taxes), displacement of state
expenditures and free access to all by user fees (e.g., on higher education), and the provision
of a vast array of subsidies and tax breaks to corporations. The welfare programs that now
exist in the United States at federal, state, and local levels amount to a vast redirection of
public moneys for corporate benefit (directly as in the case of subsidies to agribusiness and
indirectly as in the case of the military-industrial sector), in much the same way that the
mortgage interest rate tax deduction operates in the United States as a massive subsidy to
upper-income home owners and the construction of industry. Heightened surveillance and policing
and, in the case of the United States, the incarceration of recalcitrant elements in the
population indicate a more sinister role of intense social control. In developing countries,
where opposition to neoliberalism and accumulation by dispossession can be stronger, the role
of the neoliberal state quickly assumes that of active repression even to the point of low
level warfare against oppositional movements (many of which can now conveniently be designated
as terrorist to garner U.S. military assistance and support) such as the Zapatistas in Mexico
or landless peasants in Brazil.
In effect, reported Roy, "India's rural economy, which supports seven hundred million
people, is being garroted. Farmers who produce too much are in distress, farmers who produce
too little are in distress, and landless agricultural laborers are out of work as big estates
and farms lay off their workers. They're all flocking to the cities in search of employment."
19 In China, the estimate is that at least half a billion people will have to be
absorbed by urbanization over the next ten years if rural mayhem and revolt is to be avoided.
What those migrants will do in the cities remains unclear, though the vast physical
infrastructural plans now in the works will go some way to absorbing the labor surpluses
released by primitive accumulation.
The redistributive tactics of neoliberalism are wide-ranging, sophisticated, frequently
masked by ideological gambits, but devastating for the dignity and social well-being of
vulnerable populations and territories. The wave of creative destruction neoliberalization has
visited across the globe is unparalleled in the history of capitalism. Understandably, it has
spawned resistance and a search for viable alternatives.
"... Now, despite what the Russian propagandists will tell you, this recent outbreak of fascistic behavior has nothing whatsoever to do with these people's frustration with neoliberalism or the supranational Corporatocracy that has been expanding its global empire with total impunity for twenty-five years. And it definitely has nothing at all to do with supranational political unions, or the supersession of national sovereignty by corporate-concocted "free trade" agreements, or the relentless privatization of everything, or the fear that a lot of people have that their cultures are being gradually erased and replaced with a globalized, corporate-friendly, multicultural, market-based culture, which is merely a simulation of culture, and which contains no actual cultural values (because exchange value is its only operative value), but which sells the empty signifiers of their eviscerated cultural values back to them so they can wear their "identities" like designer brands as they hunch together in silence at Starbucks posting pictures of themselves on Facebook. ..."
"... No, this discontent with the political establishment, corporate elites, and the mainstream media has nothing to do with any of that. It's not like global Capitalism, following the collapse of the U.S.S.R. (its last external ideological adversary), has been restructuring the entire planet in accordance with its geopolitical interests, or doing away with national sovereignty, and other nationalistic concepts that no longer serve a useful purpose in a world where a single ideological system (one backed by the most fearsome military in history) reigns completely unopposed. If that were the case, well, it might behoove us to question whether this outbreak of Nazism, racism, and other forms of "hate," was somehow connected to that historical development and maybe even try to articulate some sort of leftist analysis of that. ..."
"... a world where a single ideology rules the planet unopposed from without ..."
"... Brexit is about Britons who want their country back, a movement indeed getting stronger and stronger in EU member states, but ignored by the ruling 'elites'. ..."
"... A lot of these so called "revolutions" are fomented by the elite only to be subverted and perverted by them in the end. They've had a lot of practice co-opting revolutions and independence movements. ..."
"... "Independence" is now so fashionable (as was Communism among the "elite" back in the '30s), that they are even teaching and fostering independence to kids in kindergarten here in the US. That strikes me as most amusing. Imagine "learning" independence in state run brainwashing factories. ..."
Well all right, let's review what happened, or at least the official version of what
happened. Not Hillary Clinton's version of what happened, which Jeffrey St. Clair so
incisively skewered , but the Corporatocracy's version of what happened, which overlaps
with but is even more ridiculous than Clinton's ridiculous version. To do that, we need to
harken back to the peaceful Summer of 2016, (a/k/a the
"Summer of Fear" ), when the United States of America was still a shiny city upon a hill
whose beacon light guided freedom-loving people, the Nazis were still just a bunch of ass
clowns meeting in each other's mother's garages, and Russia was, well Russia was Russia.
Back then, as I'm sure you'll recall, Western democracy, was still primarily being menaced
by the lone
wolf terrorists, for absolutely no conceivable reason, apart from the terrorists' fanatical
desire to brutally murder all non-believers. The global Russo-Nazi Axis had not yet reared its
ugly head. President Obama, who, during his tenure, had single-handedly restored America to the
peaceful, prosperous, progressive paradise it had been before George W. Bush screwed it up, was
on The Tonight Show with Jimmy Fallon slow
jamming home the TPP . The Wall Street banks had risen from the ashes of the 2008 financial
crisis, and were buying back all the foreclosed homes of the people they had fleeced with
subprime mortgages. American workers were enjoying the freedom and flexibility of the new gig
economy. Electioneering in the United States was underway, but it was early days. It was
already clear that Donald Trump was literally
the Second Coming of Hitler , but no one was terribly worried about him yet. The Republican
Party was in a shambles. Neither Trump nor any of the other contenders had any chance of
winning in November. Nor did Sanders, who had been defeated, fair and square, in the Democratic
primaries, mostly because of
his racist statements and crazy, quasi-Communist ideas. Basically, everything was hunky
dory. Yes, it was going to be terribly sad to have to bid farewell to Obama, who had bailed out
all those bankrupt Americans the Wall Street banks had taken to the cleaners, ended all of Bush
and Cheney's wars, closed down Guantanamo, and just generally served as a multicultural messiah
figure to affluent consumers throughout the free world, but Hope-and-Change was going to
continue. The talking heads were all in agreement Hillary Clinton was going to be President,
and there was nothing anyone could do about it.
Little did we know at the time that an epidemic of Russo-Nazism had been festering just
beneath the surface of freedom-loving Western societies like some neo-fascist sebaceous cyst.
Apparently, millions of theretofore more or less normal citizens throughout the West had been
infected with a virulent strain of Russo-Nazi-engineered virus, because they simultaneously
began exhibiting the hallmark symptoms of what we now know as White Supremacist Behavioral
Disorder, or Fascist Oppositional Disorder (the folks who update the DSM are still arguing over
the official name). It started with the Brexit referendum, spread to America with the election
of Trump, and there have been a rash of outbreaks in Europe, like
the one we're currently experiencing in Germany . These fascistic symptoms have mostly
manifest as people refusing to vote as instructed, and expressing oppressive views on the
Internet, but there have also been more serious crimes, including several assaults and murders
perpetrated by white supremacists (which, of course, never happened when Obama was President,
because the Nazis hadn't been "emboldened" yet).
Now, despite what the Russian propagandists will tell you, this recent outbreak of
fascistic behavior has nothing whatsoever to do with these people's frustration with
neoliberalism or the supranational Corporatocracy that has been expanding its global empire
with total impunity for twenty-five years. And it definitely has nothing at all to do with
supranational political unions, or the supersession of national sovereignty by
corporate-concocted "free trade" agreements, or the relentless privatization of everything, or
the fear that a lot of people have that their cultures are being gradually erased and replaced
with a globalized, corporate-friendly, multicultural, market-based culture, which is merely a
simulation of culture, and which contains no actual cultural values (because exchange value is
its only operative value), but which sells the empty signifiers of their eviscerated cultural
values back to them so they can wear their "identities" like designer brands as they hunch
together in silence at Starbucks posting pictures of themselves on Facebook.
No, this discontent with the political establishment, corporate elites, and the
mainstream media has nothing to do with any of that. It's not like global Capitalism, following
the collapse of the U.S.S.R. (its last external ideological adversary), has been restructuring
the entire planet in accordance with its geopolitical interests, or doing away with national
sovereignty, and other nationalistic concepts that no longer serve a useful purpose in a world
where a single ideological system (one backed by the most fearsome military in history) reigns
completely unopposed. If that were the case, well, it might behoove us to question whether this
outbreak of Nazism, racism, and other forms of "hate," was somehow connected to that historical
development and maybe even try to articulate some sort of leftist analysis of that.
This hypothetical leftist analysis might want to focus on how Capitalism is fundamentally
opposed to Despotism, and is essentially a value-decoding machine which renders everything and
everyone it touches essentially valueless interchangeable commodities whose worth is determined
by market forces, rather than by societies and cultures, or religions, or other despotic
systems (wherein values are established and enforced arbitrarily, by the despot, the church, or
the ruling party, or by a group of people who share an affinity and decide they want to live a
certain way). This is where it would get sort of tricky, because it (i.e., this hypothetical
analysis) would have to delve into the history of Capitalism, and how it evolved out of
medieval Despotism, and how it has been decoding despotic values for something like five
hundred years. This historical delving (which would probably be too long for people to read on
their phones) would demonstrate how Capitalism has been an essentially progressive force in
terms of getting us out of Despotism (which, for most folks, wasn't very much fun) by fomenting
bourgeois revolutions and imposing some semblance of democracy on societies. It would follow
Capitalism's inexorable advance all the way up to the Twentieth Century, in which its final
external ideological adversary, fake Communism, suddenly imploded, delivering us to the world
we now live in a world where a single ideology rules the planet unopposed from without
, and where any opposition to that global ideology can only be internal, or insurgent, in
nature (e.g, terrorism, extremism, and so on). Being a hypothetical leftist analysis,
it would, at this point, need to stress that, despite the fact that Capitalism helped deliver
us from Despotism, and improved the state of society generally (compared to most societies that
preceded it), we nonetheless would like to transcend it, or evolve out of it toward some type
of society where people, and everything else, including the biosphere we live in, are not
interchangeable, valueless commodities exchanged by members of a global corporatocracy who have
no essential values, or beliefs, or principles, other than the worship of money. After having
covered all that, we might want to offer more a nuanced view of the current neo-nationalist
reaction to the Corporatocracy's ongoing efforts to restructure and privatize the rest of the
planet. Not that we would support this reaction, or in any way refrain from calling
neo-nationalism what it is (i.e., reactionary, despotic, and doomed), but this nuanced view
we'd hypothetically offer, by analyzing the larger sociopolitical and historical forces at
play, might help us to see the way forward more clearly, and who knows, maybe eventually
propose some kind of credible leftist alternative to the "global neoliberalism vs.
neo-nationalism" double bind we appear to be hopelessly stuck in at the moment.
Luckily, we don't have to do that (i.e., articulate such a leftist analysis of any such
larger historical forces). Because there is no corporatocracy not really. That's just a fake
word the Russians made up and are spreading around on the Internet to distract us while the
Nazis take over. No, the logical explanation for Trump, Brexit, and anything else that
threatens the expansion of global Capitalism, and the freedom, democracy, and prosperity it
offers, is that millions of people across the world, all at once, for no apparent reason, woke
up one day full-blown fascists and started looking around for repulsive demagogues to swear
fanatical allegiance to. Yes, that makes a lot more sense than all that complicated stuff about
history and hegemonic ideological systems, which is probably just Russian propaganda anyway, in
which case there is absolutely no reason to read any boring year-old pieces, like this one in TheEuropeanFinancialReview , or this report by
Corporate Watch , from way back in the year 2000, about the rise of global corporate
power.
So, apologies for wasting your time with all that pseudo-Marxian gobbledygook. Let's just
pretend this never happened, and get back to more important matters, like statistically proving
that Donald Trump got elected President because of racism, misogyny, transphobia, xenophobia,
or some other type of behavioral disorder, and pulling down Confederate statues, or kneeling
during the National Anthem, or whatever happens to be trending this week. Oh, yeah, and
debating punching Nazis, or people wearing MAGA hats. We definitely need to sort all that out
before we can move ahead with helping the Corporatocracy remove Trump from office, or at least
ensure he remains surrounded by their loyal generals, CEOs, and Goldman Sachs guys until the
next election. Whatever we do, let's not get distracted by that stuff I just distracted you
with. I know, it's tempting, but, given what's at stake, we need to maintain our laser focus on
issues related to identity politics, or else well, you know, the Nazis win.
C. J. Hopkins is an award-winning American playwright, novelist and satirist based in
Berlin. His plays are published by Bloomsbury Publishing (UK) and Broadway Play Publishing
(USA). His debut novel, ZONE 23 , is
published by Snoggsworthy, Swaine & Cormorant. He can reached at cjhopkins.com or consentfactory.org .
Yesterday evening on RT a USA lady, as usual forgot the name, spoke about the USA. In a
matter of fact tone she said things like 'they (Deep State) have got him (Trump) in the
box'.
They, Deep State again, are now wondering if they will continue to try to control the
world, or if they should stop the attempt, and retreat into the USA.
Also as matter of fact she said 'the CIA has always been the instrument of Deep State, from
Kenndy to Nine Eleven'.
Another statement was 'no president ever was in control'.
How USA citizens continue to believe they live in a democracy, I cannot understand.
Yesterday the intentions of the new Dutch government were made public, alas most Dutch
also dot not see that the Netherlands since 2005 no longer is a democracy, just a province of
Brussels.
Brexit is about Britons who want their country back, a movement indeed getting
stronger and stronger in EU member states, but ignored by the ruling 'elites'.
No doubt many do want their country back, but what concerns me is that all of a sudden we
have the concept of "independence" plastered all over the place. Such concepts don't get
promoted unless the ruling elites see ways to turn those sentiments to their favor.
A lot of these so called "revolutions" are fomented by the elite only to be subverted
and perverted by them in the end. They've had a lot of practice co-opting revolutions and
independence movements. (And everything else.)
"Independence" is now so fashionable (as was Communism among the "elite" back in the '30s),
that they are even teaching and fostering independence to kids in kindergarten here in the
US. That strikes me as most amusing. Imagine "learning" independence in state run
brainwashing factories.
"Now, despite what the Russian propagandists will tell you, this recent outbreak of
fascistic behavior has nothing whatsoever to do with these people's frustration with
neoliberalism or the supranational Corporatocracy that has been expanding its global empire
with total impunity for twenty-five years. And it definitely has nothing at all to do with
supranational political unions, or the supersession of national sovereignty by
corporate-concocted "free trade" agreements, or the relentless privatization of everything,
or the fear that a lot of people have that their cultures are being gradually erased and
replaced with a globalized, corporate-friendly, multicultural, market-based culture, which
is merely a simulation of culture, and which contains no actual cultural values (because
exchange value is its only operative value), but which sells the empty signifiers of their
eviscerated cultural values back to them so they can wear their "identities" like designer
brands as they hunch together in silence at Starbucks posting pictures of themselves on
Facebook."
Very impressed with this article, never really paid attention to CJ's articles but that is
now changing!
The paper is two years old. Looks how his prediction fared. Stagnation is still with us
althouth low oil prices lifted all the boats. But this period is coming to the end.
Notable quotes:
"... The financial crisis that erupted in 2008 challenged the foundations of orthodox economic theory and policy. At its outset, orthodox economists were stunned into silence as evidenced by their inability to answer the Queen of England's simple question (November 5th, 2008) to the faculty of the London School of Economics as to why no one foresaw the crisis. ..."
"... Six years later, orthodoxy has fought back and largely succeeded in blocking change of thought and policy. The result has been economic stagnation ..."
"... Perspective # 3 is the progressive position which is rooted in Keynesian economics and can be labeled the "destruction of shared prosperity hypothesis" ..."
"... It is identified with the New Deal wing of the Democratic Party and the labor movement, but it has no standing within major economics departments owing to their suppression of alternatives to economic orthodoxy. ..."
"... However, financial excess is just an element of the crisis and the full explanation is far deeper than just financial market regulatory failure According to the Keynesian destruction of shared prosperity hypothesis, the deep cause is generalized economic policy failure rooted in the flawed neoliberal economic paradigm that was adopted in the late 1970s and early 1980s. ..."
"... globalization reconfigured global production by transferring manufacturing from the U.S. and Europe to emerging market economies. This new global division of labor was then supported by having U.S. consumers serve as the global economy's buyer of first and last resort, which explains the U.S. trade deficit and the global imbalances problem. ..."
"... This new global division of labor inevitably created large trade deficits that also contributed to weakening the aggregate demand (AD)generation process by causing a hemorrhage of spending on imports (Palley, 2015) ..."
"... Finance does this through three channels. First, financial markets have captured control of corporations via enforcement of the shareholder value maximization paradigm of corporate governance. Consequently, corporations now serve financial market interests along with the interests of top management. Second, financial markets in combination with corporations lobby politically for the neoliberal policy mix. ..."
"... Third, financial innovation has facilitated and promoted financial market control of corporations via hostile take-overs, leveraged buyouts and reverse capital distributions. Financial innovation has therefore been key for enforcing Wall Street's construction of the shareholder value maximization paradigm. ..."
"... The second vital role of finance is the support of AD. The neoliberal model gradually undermined the income and demand generation process, creating a growing structural demand gap. The role of finance was to fill that gap. Thus, within the U.S., deregulation, financial innovation, speculation, and mortgage lending fraud enabled finance to fill the demand gap by lending to consumers and by spurring asset price inflation ..."
"... this AD generation role of finance was an unintended consequence and not part of a grand plan. Neoliberal economists and policymakers did not realize they were creating a demand gap, but their laissez-faire economic ideology triggered financial market developments that coincidentally filled the demand gap. ..."
"... the financial process they unleashed was inevitably unstable and was always destined to hit the wall. There are limits to borrowing and limits to asset price inflation and all Ponzi schemes eventually fall apart. ..."
"... the long duration of financial excess made the collapse far deeper when it eventually happened. It has also made escaping the after-effects of the financial crisis far more difficult as the economy is now burdened by debts and destroyed credit worthiness. That has deepened the proclivity to economic stagnation. ..."
"... The neoliberal labor market flexibility agenda explicitly attacks unions and works to shift income to wealthier households. ..."
"... That model inevitably produces stagnation because it produces a structural demand shortage via (i) its impact on income distribution, and (ii) via its design of globalization which generates massive trade deficits, wage competition and off-shoring of jobs and investment. In terms of the three-way contest between the government failure hypothesis, the market failure hypothesis and the destruction of shared prosperity hypothesis, the economic policy debate during the Great Recession was cast as exclusively between government failure and market failure. ..."
"... This attitude to fiscal policy reflects the dominance within the Democratic Party of "Rubinomics", the Wall Street view associated with former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, that government spending and budget deficits raise real interest rates and thereby lower growth. According to that view, the US needs long-term fiscal austerity to offset Social Security and Medicare Side-by-side with the attempt to reflate the economy, the Obama administration also pushed for major overhaul and tightening of financial sector regulation via the Dodd- Frank Act (2010). ..."
"... The Obama administration's softcore neoliberalism would have likely generated stagnation by itself, but the prospect has been further strengthened by Republicans. ..."
"... The Obama administration was to provide fiscal stimulus to jump start the economy; the Fed would use QE to blow air back into the asset price bubble; the Dodd-Frank Act (2010) would stabilize financial markets; and globalization would be deepened by further NAFTA-styled international agreements. This is a near-identical model to that which failed so disastrously. Consequently, stagnation is the logical prognosis. ..."
"... Consequently, the economy is destined to repeat the patterns of the 1990s and 2000s. However, the US economy has also experienced almost twenty more years of neoliberalism which has left its economic body in worse health than the 1990s. That means the likelihood of delivering another bubble-based boom is low and stagnation tendencies will likely reassert themselves after a shorter and weaker period of expansion ..."
This paper examines the major competing interpretations of the economic crisis in the US and
explains the rebound of neoliberal orthodoxy. It shows how US policymakers acted to stabilize
and save the economy, but failed to change the underlying neoliberal economic policy model.
That failure explains the emergence of stagnation, which is likely to endure
Current economic
conditions in the US smack of the mid-1990s. The 1990s expansion proved unsustainable and so
will the current modest expansion. However, this time it is unlikely to be followed by
financial crisis because of the balance sheet cleaning that took place during the last
crisis
Revised 1: This paper has been prepared for inclusion in Gallas, Herr, Hoffer and Scherrer
(eds.), Combatting Inequality: The Global North and South , Rouledge, forthcoming in
2015.
The crisis and the resilience of neoliberal economic orthodoxy
The financial crisis that erupted in 2008 challenged the foundations of orthodox economic
theory and policy. At its outset, orthodox economists were stunned into silence as evidenced by
their inability to answer the Queen of England's simple question (November 5th, 2008) to the
faculty of the London School of Economics as to why no one foresaw the crisis.
Six years later,
orthodoxy has fought back and largely succeeded in blocking change of thought and policy. The
result has been economic stagnation
This paper examines the major competing interpretations of
the economic crisis in the US and explains the rebound of neoliberal orthodoxy. It shows how US
policymakers acted to stabilize and save the economy, but failed to change the underlying
neoliberal economic policy model.
That failure explains the emergence of stagnation in the US
economy and stagnation is likely to endure.
Current economic conditions in the US smack of the
mid-1990s. The 1990s expansion proved unsustainable and so will the current modest expansion.
However, this time it is unlikely to be followed by financial crisis because of the balance
sheet cleaning that took place during the last crisis.
Competing explanations of the
crisis
The Great Recession, which began in December 2007 and includes the financial crisis of 2008,
is the deepest economic downturn in the US since the World War II. The depth of the downturn is
captured in Table 1 which shows the decline in GDP and the peak unemployment rate. The
recession has the longest duration and the decline in GDP is the largest. The peak unemployment
rate was slightly below the peak rate of the recession of 1981-82. However, this ignores the
fact that the labor force participation rate fell in the Great Recession (i.e. people left the
labor force and were not counted as unemployed) whereas it increased in the recession of
1981-82 (i.e. people entered the labor force and were counted as unemployed).
Table 1. Alternative measures of the depth of US recessions.
... ... ...
Table 2 provides data on the percent change in private sector employment from business cycle
peak to trough. The 7.6 percent loss of private sector jobs in the Great Recession dwarfs other
recessions, providing another measure of its depth and confirming it extreme nature. 2 Over the
course of the 1981-82 labor force participation rose from 63.8 percent to 64.2 percent, thereby
likely increasing the unemployment rate. In contrast, over the course of the Great Recession
the labor force participation rate fell from 66.0 percent to 65.7 percent, thereby likely
decreasing the unemployment. The decrease in the labor force participation rate was even
sharper for prime age (25 – 54 years old) workers, indicating that the decrease in the
overall participation rate was not due to demographic factors such as an aging population.
Instead, it was due to lack of job opportunities, which supports the claim that labor force
exit lowered the unemployment rate. Table 2. U.S. private employment cycles, peak to trough.
Source: Bureau of labor statistics and author's calculations.
... ... ...
Broadly speaking there exist three competing perspectives on the crisis (Palley, 2012).
Perspective # 1 is the hardcore neoliberal position which can be labeled the
"government failure hypothesis" . In the U.S. it is identified with the Republican
Party and with the economics departments of Stanford University, the University of Chicago,
and the University of Minnesota.
The hardcore neoliberal government failure argument is that
the crisis is rooted in the U.S. housing bubble and its bust. The claim is that the bubble
was due to excessively prolonged loose monetary policy and politically motivated government
intervention in the housing market aimed at increasing ownership. With regard to monetary
policy, the Federal Reserve pushed interest rates too low for too long following the
recession of 2001.
With regard to the housing market, government intervention via the
Community Reinvestment Act and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, drove up house prices and
encouraged homeownership beyond peoples' means.
Perspective # 2 is the softcore neoliberal position, which can be labeled the "market
failure hypothesis" . It is identified with the Obama administration, the Walls Street
and Silicon Valley wing of the Democratic Party, and economics departments such as those at
MIT, Yale and Princeton. In Europe it is identified with "Third Way" politics.
The softcore
neoliberal market failure argument is that the crisis is due to inadequate financial sector
regulation. First, regulators allowed excessive risk-taking by banks. Second, regulators
allowed perverse incentive pay structures within banks that encouraged management to engage
in "loan pushing" rather than "sound lending." Third, regulators pushed both deregulation and
self-regulation too far. Together, these failures contributed to financial misallocation,
including misallocation of foreign saving provided through the trade deficit, that led to
financial crisis. The crisis in turn deepened an ordinary recession, transforming it into the
Great Recession which could have become the second Great Depression absent the extraordinary
policy interventions of 2008-09
Perspective # 3 is the progressive position which is rooted in Keynesian economics and
can be labeled the "destruction of shared prosperity hypothesis".
It is identified
with the New Deal wing of the Democratic Party and the labor movement, but it has no
standing within major economics departments owing to their suppression of alternatives to
economic orthodoxy. The Keynesian "destruction of shared prosperity" argument is that
the crisis is rooted in the neoliberal economic paradigm that has guided economic policy for
the past thirty years. An important feature of the argument is that, though the U.S. is the
epicenter of the crisis, all countries are implicated as they all participated in the
adoption of a systemically flawed policy paradigm. That paradigm infected finance via
inadequate regulation, enabling financial excess that led to the financial crisis of 2008.
However, financial excess is just an element of the crisis and the full explanation is far
deeper than just financial market regulatory failure According to the Keynesian destruction
of shared prosperity hypothesis, the deep cause is generalized economic policy failure rooted
in the flawed neoliberal economic paradigm that was adopted in the late 1970s and early
1980s.
For the period 1945 - 1975 the U.S. economy was characterized by a "virtuous circle"
Keynesian growth model built on full employment and wage growth tied to productivity growth.
This model is illustrated in Figure 1 and its logic was as follows. Productivity growth drove
wage growth, which in turn fuelled demand growth and created full employment. That provided an
incentive for investment, which drove further productivity growth and supported higher wages.
This model held in the U.S. and, subject to local modifications, it also held throughout the
global economy - in Western Europe, Canada, Japan, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina.
Figure 1. The 1945 – 75 virtuous circle Keynesian growth model. Wage growth Demand
growth Full employment Productivity growth Investment
After 1980 the virtuous circle Keynesian
growth model was replaced by a neoliberal growth model. The reasons for the change are a
complex mix of economic, political and sociological reasons that are beyond the scope of the
current paper. The key changes wrought by the new model were:
Abandonment of the commitment
to full employment and the adoption of commitment to very low inflation;
Severing of the
link between wages and productivity growth.
Together, these changes created a new economic
dynamic. Before 1980, wages were the engine of U.S. demand growth. After 1980, debt and asset
price inflation became the engine The new economic model was rooted in neoliberal economic
thought. Its principal effects were to weaken the position of workers; strengthen the position
of corporations; and unleash financial markets to serve the interests of financial and business
elites.
As illustrated in figure 2, the new model can be described as a neoliberal policy box
that fences workers in and pressures them from all sides. On the left hand side, the corporate
model of globalization put workers in international competition via global production networks
that are supported by free trade agreements and capital mobility.
On the right hand side, the
"small" government agenda attacked the legitimacy of government and pushed persistently for
deregulation regardless of dangers. From below, the labor market flexibility agenda attacked
unions and labor market supports such as the minimum wage, unemployment benefits, employment
protections, and employee rights. From above, policymakers abandoned the commitment of full
employment, a development that was reflected in the rise of inflation targeting and the move
toward independent central banks influenced by financial interests.
Figure 2. The neoliberal
policy box. Globalization WORKERS Abandonment of full employment Small Government Labor Market
Flexibility
Corporate globalization is an especially key feature. Not only did it exert
downward inward pressures on economies via import competition and the threat of job
off-shoring, it also provided the architecture binding economies together. Thus, globalization
reconfigured global production by transferring manufacturing from the U.S. and Europe to
emerging market economies. This new global division of labor was then supported by having U.S.
consumers serve as the global economy's buyer of first and last resort, which explains the U.S.
trade deficit and the global imbalances problem.
This new global division of labor inevitably
created large trade deficits that also contributed to weakening the aggregate demand
(AD)generation process by causing a hemorrhage of spending on imports (Palley, 2015)
An
important feature of the Keynesian hypothesis is that the neoliberal policy box was implemented
on a global basis, in both the North and the South. As in the U.S., there was also a structural
break in policy regime in both Europe and Latin America. In Latin America , the International
Monetary Fund and World Bank played an important role as they used the economic distress
created by the 1980s debt crisis to push neoliberal policy
They did so by making financial
assistance conditional on adopting such policies. This global diffusion multiplied the impact
of the turn to neoliberal economic policy and it explains why the Washington Consensus enforced
by the International Monetary Fund and World Bank has been so significant. It also explains why
stagnation has taken on a global dimension.
III The role of finance in the neoliberal
model
Owing to the extraordinarily deep and damaging nature of the financial crisis of 2008,
financial market excess has been a dominant focus of explanations of the Great Recession.
Within the neoliberal government failure hypothesis the excess is attributed to ill-advised
government intervention and Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Within the neoliberal market
failure hypothesis it is attributed to ill-advised deregulation and failure to modernize
regulation.
According to the Keynesian destruction of shared prosperity hypothesis neither of
those interpretations grasps the true significance of finance. The government failure
hypothesis is empirically unsupportable (Palley, 2012a, chapter 6), while the market failure
hypothesis has some truth but also misses the true role of finance That role is illustrated in
Figure 3 which shows that finance performed two roles in the neoliberal model. The first was to
structurally support the neoliberal policy box. The second was to support the AD generation
process. These dual roles are central to the process of increasing financial domination of the
economy which has been termed financialization (Epstein, 2004, p.3; Krippner, 2004, 2005;
Palley, 2013). Figure 3. The role of finance in the neoliberal model. The role of finance:
"financialization" Supporting the neoliberal policy box Aggregate demand generation Corporate
behavior Economic policy Financial innovation The policy box shown in Figure 2 has four sides.
A true box has six sides and a four sided structure would be prone to structural weakness.
Metaphorically speaking, one role of finance is to provide support on two sides of the
neoliberal policy box, as illustrated in Figure 4.
Finance does this through three channels.
First, financial markets have captured control of corporations via enforcement of the
shareholder value maximization paradigm of corporate governance. Consequently, corporations now
serve financial market interests along with the interests of top management. Second, financial
markets in combination with corporations lobby politically for the neoliberal policy mix.
The
combination of changed corporate behavior and economic policy produces an economic matrix that
puts wages under continuous pressure and raises income inequality.
Third, financial innovation
has facilitated and promoted financial market control of corporations via hostile take-overs,
leveraged buyouts and reverse capital distributions. Financial innovation has therefore been
key for enforcing Wall Street's construction of the shareholder value maximization paradigm.
Figure 4. Lifting the lid on the neoliberal policy box. The neoliberal box Corporations
Financial markets
The second vital role of finance is the support of AD. The neoliberal model
gradually undermined the income and demand generation process, creating a growing structural
demand gap. The role of finance was to fill that gap. Thus, within the U.S., deregulation,
financial innovation, speculation, and mortgage lending fraud enabled finance to fill the
demand gap by lending to consumers and by spurring asset price inflation
Financialization
assisted with this process by changing credit market practices and introducing new credit
instruments that made credit more easily and widely available to corporations and households.
U.S. consumers in turn filled the global demand gap, along with help from U.S. and European
corporations who were shifting manufacturing facilities and investment to the emerging market
economies.
Three things should be emphasized.
First, this AD generation role of finance was an
unintended consequence and not part of a grand plan. Neoliberal economists and policymakers did
not realize they were creating a demand gap, but their laissez-faire economic ideology
triggered financial market developments that coincidentally filled the demand gap.
Second, the
financial process they unleashed was inevitably unstable and was always destined to hit the
wall. There are limits to borrowing and limits to asset price inflation and all Ponzi schemes
eventually fall apart. The problem is it is impossible to predict when they will fail. All that
can be known with confidence is that it will eventually fail.
Third, the process went on far
longer than anyone expected, which explains why critics of neoliberalism sounded like Cassandras (Palley, 1998, Chapter 12). However,
the long duration of financial excess made the
collapse far deeper when it eventually happened. It has also made escaping the after-effects of
the financial crisis far more difficult as the economy is now burdened by debts and destroyed
credit worthiness. That has deepened the proclivity to economic stagnation.
IV
Evidence
Evidence regarding the economic effects of the neoliberal model is plentiful and clear
Figure 5 shows productivity and average hourly compensation of non-supervisory workers (that is
non-managerial employees who are about 80 percent of the workforce). The link with productivity
growth was severed almost 40 years ago and hourly compensation has been essentially stagnant
since then.
Figure 5.
... ... ...
Table
3 shows data on the distribution of income growth by business cycle expansion across the
wealthiest top 10 percent and bottom 90 percent of households. Over the past sixty years there
has been a persistent decline in the share of income gains going to the bottom 90 percent of
households ranked by wealth. However, in the period 1948 – 1979 the decline was gradual.
After 1980 there is a massive structural break and the share of income gains going to the
bottom 90 percent collapses. Before 1980, on average the bottom 90 percent received 66 percent
of business cycle expansion income gains. After 1980, on average they receive just 8 percent.
Table 3. Distribution of income growth by business cycle expansion across the wealthiest top 10
percent and bottom 90 percent of households. Source: Tcherneva (2014), published in The New
York Times , September 26, 2014. '49- '53 '54- '57 '59- '60 '61- '69 '70- '73 '75- '79
'82- '90 '91- '00 '01- '07 '09- '12 Average Pre-1908 Average Post-1980 Top 10% 20% 28 32 33
43 45 80 73 98 116 34% 92% Bottom 90% 80% 72 68 67 57 55 20 27 2 -16 66% 8%
Figure 6
shows the share of total pre-tax income of the top one percent of households ranked by wealth.
From the mid-1930s, with the implementation of the New Deal social contract, that share fell
from a high of 23.94 percent in 1928 to a low of 8.95 percent in 1978. Thereafter it has
steadily risen, reaching 23.5 percent in 2007 which marked the beginning of the Great
Recession. It then fell during the Great Recession owing to a recession-induced fall in
profits, but has since recovered most of that decline as income distribution has worsened again
during the economic recovery. In effect, during the neoliberal era the US economy has retraced
its steps, reversing the improvements achieved by the New Deal and post-World War II
prosperity, so that the top one percent's share of pre-tax income has returned to pre-Great
Depression levels.
Figure 6. US pre-tax income share of top 1 percent. Source:
http://inequality.org/income-inequality/. Original source: Thomas Piketty and Emanuel Saez
(2003), updated at http://emlab.edu/users/saez.
As argued in Palley (2012a, p. 150-151) there
is close relationship between union membership density (i.e. percent of employed workers that
are unionized) and income distribution. This is clearly shown in Figure 7 which shows union
density and the share of pre-tax income going to the top ten percent of wealthiest households.
The neoliberal labor market flexibility agenda explicitly attacks unions and works to shift
income to wealthier households.
Share of income going to the top 10 percent 2013: 47.0% Union
membership density 11.2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1917 1923 1929 1935 1941 1947 1953 1959
1965 1971 1977 1983 1989 1995 2001 2007 2013 Source: Data on union density follows the
composite series found in Historical Statistics of the United States; updated to 2013 from
unionstats.com. Income inequality (share of income to top 10%) from Piketty and Saez,
"Income
Inequality in the United States, 1913-1998, Quarterly Journal of Economics , 118(1),
2003, 1-39. Updated Figure 7. Union membership and the share of income going to the top ten
percent of wealthiest households, 1917 – 2013. Source: Mishel, Gould and Bivens (2015).
Table 4 provides data on the evolution of the U.S. goods and services trade balance as a share
of GDP by business cycle peak. Comparison across peaks controls for the effect of the business
cycle. The data show through to the late 1970s U.S. trade was roughly in balance, but after
1980 it swung to massive deficit and the deficits increased each business cycle. These deficits
were the inevitable product of the neoliberal model of globalization (Palley, 2015) and they
undermined the AD generation process in accordance with the Keynesian hypothesis.
Table 4. The
U.S. goods & services trade deficit/surplus by business cycle peaks, 1960 – 2007.
Sources: Economic Report of the President, 2009 and author's calculations. Business cycle
peak year Trade balance ($ millions) GDP ($ billions) Trade balance/ GDP (%) 1960 3,508
526.4 0.7 1969 91 984.6 0.0 1973 1,900 1,382.7 0.1 1980 -25,500 2,789.5
-0.9 1981 -28,023 3,128.4 -0.9 1990 -111,037 5,803.1 -1.9 2001 -429,519
10,128.0 -4.2 2007 -819,373 13,807.5 -5.9
Finally, Figure 8 shows total domestic debt
relative to GDP and growth. This Figure is highly supportive of the Keynesian interpretation of
the role of finance. During the neoliberal era real GDP growth has actually slowed but debt
growth has exploded. The reason is the neoliberal model did nothing to increase growth, but it
needed faster debt growth to fill the demand gap created by the model's worsening of income
distribution and creation of large trade deficits. Debt growth supported debt-financed consumer
spending and it supported asset price inflation that enabled borrowing which filled the demand
gap caused by the neoliberal model. Figure 8. Total domestic debt and growth (1952-2007).
Source: Grantham, 2010.
V The debate about the causes of the crisis: why it matters
The importance of the debate about the causes of the crisis is that each perspective
recommends its own different policy response. For hardcore neoliberal government failure
proponents the recommended policy response is to double-down on the policies described by the
neoliberal policy box and further deregulate markets; to deepen central bank independence and
the commitment to low inflation via strict rules based monetary policy; and to further shrink
government and impose fiscal austerity to deal with increased government debt produced by the
crisis For softcore neoliberal market failure proponents the recommended policy response is to
tighten financial regulation but continue with all other aspects of the existing neoliberal
policy paradigm. That means continued support for corporate globalization, socalled labor
market flexibility, low inflation targeting, and fiscal austerity in the long term.
Additionally, there is need for temporary large-scale fiscal and monetary stimulus to combat
the deep recession caused by the financial crisis.
However, once the economy has recovered,
policy should continue with the neoliberal model For proponents of the destruction of shared
prosperity hypothesis the policy response is fundamentally different. The fundamental need is
to overthrow the neoliberal paradigm and replace it with a "structural Keynesian" paradigm.
That involves repacking the policy box as illustrated in Figure 9.
The critical step is to take
workers out of the box and put corporations and financial markets in so that they are made to
serve a broader public interest. The key elements are to replace corporate globalization with
managed globalization that blocks race to the bottom trade dynamics and stabilizes global
financial markets; restore a commitment to full employment; replace the neoliberal
anti-government agenda with a social democratic government agenda; and replace the neoliberal
labor market flexibility with a solidarity based labor market agenda.
The goals are restoration
of full employment and restoration of a solid link between wage and productivity growth.
Figure
9. The structural Keynesian box Corporations & Managed Financial Markets Globalization Full
Employment Social Democratic Government Solidarity Labor Markets
Lastly, since the neoliberal
model was adopted as part of a new global economic order, there is also need to recalibrate the
global economy. This is where the issue of "global rebalancing" enters and emerging market
economies need to shift away from export-led growth strategies to domestic demand-led
strategies. That poses huge challenges for many emerging market economies because they have
configured their growth strategies around export-led growth whereby they sell to U.S.
consumers.
VI From crisis to stagnation: the failure to change
Massive policy interventions, unequalled in the post-war era, stopped the Great Recession
from spiraling into a second Great Depression. The domestic economic interventions included the
2008 Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) that bailed out the financial sector via government
purchases of assets and equity from financial institutions; the 2009 American Recovery and
Reinvestment Act (ARRA) that provided approximately $800 billion of fiscal stimulus, consisting
of approximately $550 billion of government spending and $250 billion of tax cuts; the Federal
Reserve lowering its interest target to near-zero (0 - 0.25 percent); and the Federal Reserve
engaging in quantitative easing (QE) transactions that involve it purchasing government and
private sector securities. At the international level, in 2008 the Federal Reserve established
a temporary $620 billion foreign exchange (FX) swap facility with foreign central banks.
That
facility provided the global economy with dollar balances, thereby preventing a dollar
liquidity shortage from triggering a wave of global default on short-term dollar loans that the
financial system was unwilling to roll-over because of panic.3
Additionally, there was
unprecedented globally coordinated fiscal stimulus arranged via the G-20 mechanism. 3
The FX
swaps with foreign central banks have been criticized as being a bail-out for foreign
economies. In fact, they saved the US financial system which would have been pulled down by
financial collapse outside
Despite their scale, these interventions did not stop the recession
from being the deepest since 1945, and nor did they stop the onset of stagnation. Table 5 shows
how GDP growth has failed to recover since the end of the Great Recession, averaging just 2.1
percent for the five year period from 2010 – 2014. Furthermore, that period includes the
rebound year of 2010 when the economy rebounded from its massive slump owing to the
extraordinary fiscal and monetary stimulus measures that were put in place
Table 5. U.S. GDP
growth. Source: Statistical Annex of the European Union, Autumn 2014 and author's calculations.
The growth rate for 2014 is that estimated in October 2014.
Table 6 shows employment creation in the five years after the end of recessions, which provides
another window on stagnation. The job creation numbers show that the neoliberal model was
already slowing in the 1990s with the first episode of "jobless the US.
Many foreign banks
operating in the US had acquired US assets financed with short-term dollar borrowings. When the
US money market froze in 2008 they could not roll-over these loans in accordance with normal
practice. That threatened massive default by these banks within the US financial system, which
would have pulled down the entire global financial system.
The Federal Reserve could not lend
directly to these foreign banks and their governing central banks lacked adequate dollar
liquidity to fill the financing gap. The solution was to lend dollars to foreign central banks,
which then made dollar loans to foreign banks in need of dollar roll-over short-term financing.
recovery".
It actually ground to stagnation in the 2001 – 2007 period, but this was
masked by the house price bubble and the false prosperity it created. Stagnation has persisted
after the Great Recession, but the economic distress caused by the recession has finally
triggered awareness of stagnation among elites economists. In a sense, the Great Recession
called out the obvious, just as did the little boy in the Hans Anderson story about the
emperor's new suit
Table 6. U.S. private sector employment creation in the five year period
after the end of recessions for six business cycles with extended expansions. Source: Bureau of
labor statistics and author's calculations. * = January 1980 the beginning of the next
recession Recession end date Employment at recession end date (millions) Employment five years
later (millions) Percent growth in employment Feb 1961 45.0 52.2 16.0% Mar 1975 61.9 74.6*
20.5% Nov 1982 72.8 86.1 18.3% March 1991 90.1 99.5 10.4% Nov 2001 109.8 115.0 4.7% June 2009
108.4 117.1 8.0% The persistence of stagnation after the Great Recession raises the question
"why"? The answer is policy has done nothing to change the structure of the underlying
neoliberal economic model.
That model inevitably produces stagnation because it produces a
structural demand shortage via (i) its impact on income distribution, and (ii) via its design
of globalization which generates massive trade deficits, wage competition and off-shoring of
jobs and investment. In terms of the three-way contest between the government failure
hypothesis, the market failure hypothesis and the destruction of shared prosperity hypothesis,
the economic policy debate during the Great Recession was cast as exclusively between
government failure and market failure.
With the Democrats controlling the Congress and
Presidency after the 2008 election, the market failure hypothesis won out and has framed policy
since then. According to the hypothesis, the financial crisis caused an exceptionally deep
recession that required exceptionally large monetary and fiscal stimulus to counter it and
restore normalcy. Additionally, the market failure hypothesis recommends restoring and
renovating financial regulation, but other than that the neoliberal paradigm is appropriate and
should be deepened In accordance with this thinking, the in-coming Obama administration
affirmed existing efforts to save the system and prevent a downward spiral by supporting the
Bush administration's TARP, the Federal Reserve's first round of QE (November/December 2008)
that provided market liquidity, and the Federal Reserve's FX swap agreement with foreign
central banks
Thereafter, the Obama administration worked to reflate the economy via passage of
the ARRA (2009) which provided significant fiscal stimulus. With the failure to deliver a
V-shaped recovery, candidate Obama became even more vocal about fiscal stimulus However,
reflecting its softcore neoliberal inclinations, the Obama administration then became much less
so when it took office. Thus, the winners of the internal debate about fiscal policy in the
first days of the Obama administration were those wanting more modest fiscal stimulus.4
Furthermore, its analytical frame was one of temporary stimulus with the 4 Since 2009 there has
been some evolution of policy positions characterized by a shift to stronger support for fiscal
stimulus. This has been especially marked in Larry Summers, who was the Obama administration's
goal of long-term fiscal consolidation, which is softcore neoliberal speak for fiscal austerity
Seen in the above light, after the passage of ARRA (2009), the fiscal policy divide between the
Obama administration and hardcore neoliberal Republicans was about the speed and conditions
under which fiscal austerity should be restored.
This attitude to fiscal policy reflects the
dominance within the Democratic Party of "Rubinomics", the Wall Street view associated with
former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, that government spending and budget deficits raise real
interest rates and thereby lower growth. According to that view, the US needs long-term fiscal
austerity to offset Social Security and Medicare Side-by-side with the attempt to reflate the
economy, the Obama administration also pushed for major overhaul and tightening of financial
sector regulation via the Dodd- Frank Act (2010).
That accorded with the market failure
hypothesis's claim about the economic crisis and Great Recession being caused by financial
excess permitted by the combination of excessive deregulation, lax regulation and failure to
modernize regulation Finally, and again in accordance with the logic of the market failure
hypothesis, the Obama administration has pushed ahead with doubling-down and further
entrenching the neoliberal policy box. This is most visible in its approach to globalization.
In 2010, free trade agreements modelled after NAFTA were signed with South Korea, Colombia and
Panama. The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment
Partnership (TTIP), two mega-agreements negotiated in secrecy and apparently bearing chief
economic adviser when it took office. This shift has become a way of rewriting history by
erasing the memory of initial positions. That is also true of the IMF which in 2010-2011 was a
robust supporter of fiscal consolidation in Europe. similar hallmarks to prior trade
agreements, are also being pushed by the Obama administration
The Obama administration's softcore neoliberalism would have likely generated stagnation by itself, but the prospect has
been further strengthened by Republicans.
Thus, in accordance with their point of view,
Republicans have persistently pushed the government failure hypothesis by directing the policy
conversation to excessive regulation and easy monetary policy as the causes of the crisis.
Consequently, they have consistently opposed strengthened financial regulation and demands for
fiscal stimulus.
At the same time, they have joined with softcore neoliberal Democrats
regarding doubling-down on neoliberal box policies, particularly as regards trade and
globalization Paradoxically, the failure to change the overall economic model becomes most
visible by analyzing the policies of the Federal Reserve, which have changed the most
dramatically via the introduction of QE. The initial round of QE (QE1) was followed by QE2 in
November 2010 and QE3 in September 2012, with the Fed shifting from providing short-term
emergency liquidity to buying private sector financial assets.
The goal was to bid up prices of
longer term bonds and other securities, thereby lowering interest rates on longer-term
financing and encouraging investors to buy equities and other riskier financial assets. The
Fed's reasoning was lower long-term rates would stimulate the economy, and higher financial
asset prices would trigger a positive wealth effect on consumption spending. This makes clear
the architecture of policy.
The Obama administration was to provide fiscal stimulus to jump
start the economy; the Fed would use QE to blow air back into the asset price bubble; the
Dodd-Frank Act (2010) would stabilize financial markets; and globalization would be deepened by
further NAFTA-styled international agreements. This is a near-identical model to that which
failed so disastrously. Consequently, stagnation is the logical prognosis.
VII
Déjà vu all over again: back to the 1990s but with a weaker economy
The exclusion of the destruction of shared prosperity hypothesis, combined with the joint
triumph of the market failure and government failure hypotheses, means the underlying economic
model that produced the Great Recession remains essentially unchanged. That failure to change
explains stagnation. It also explains why current conditions smack of "déjà vu
all over again" with the US economy in 2014-15 appearing to have returned to conditions
reminiscent of the mid-1990s.
Just as the 1990s failed to deliver durable prosperity, so too
current optimistic conditions will prove unsustainable absent deeper change The
déjà vu similarities are evident
in the large US trade deficit that has started
to again deteriorate rapidly;
a return of the over-valued dollar problem that promises to
further increase the trade deficit and divert jobs and investment away from the US economy;
a
return to reliance on asset price inflation and house price increases to grow consumer demand
and construction;
a return of declining budget deficits owing to continued policy disposition
toward fiscal austerity; a return of the contradiction that has the Federal Reserve tighten
monetary policy when economic strength triggers rising prices and wages that bump against the
ceiling of the Fed's self-imposed 2 percent inflation target; and renewal of the push for
neoliberal trade agreements
All of these features mean both policy context and policy design
look a lot like the mid-1990s. The Obama administration saved the system but did not change it
Consequently, the economy is destined to repeat the patterns of the 1990s and 2000s. However,
the US economy has also experienced almost twenty more years of neoliberalism which has left
its economic body in worse health than the 1990s. That means the likelihood of delivering
another bubble-based boom is low and stagnation tendencies will likely reassert themselves
after a shorter and weaker period of expansion
This structurally weakened state of the US
economy is evident in the further worsening of income inequality that has occurred during the
Great Recession and subsequent slow recovery.
... ... ...
Thomas I. Palley, Senior Economic Policy Advisor, AFL-CIO Washington, D.C. [email protected]
Chris Hedges published this book eight years ago and the things he predicted have sadly been
realized
Notable quotes:
"... his screed is a liberating tonic against the crazy-making double-speak and the lies Americans are sold by our country's elite in order to distract us from the true threat and nature of the Corporate State, from the cult of celebrity, to how our nation's Universities have been hijacked to serve the interests, not of the public, but of our corporate overlords. It explains the self-same conditions in all aspects of our society and culture that we now must face, the ever-shrinking flame of enlightenment being exchanged for the illusory shadows on a cave wall. ..."
"... He fearlessly and incisively calls us out on the obvious farce our democracy has become, how we got here, and highlights the rapidly closing window in which we have to do something to correct it. It is a revelation, and yet he merely states the obvious. The empire has no clothes. ..."
"... One of the most powerful aspects of this book was in regard to how our Universities are run these days. I may be in the minority, but I experienced a life-changing disillusionment when I gained entrance to a prestigious "elite" University. Instead of drawing the best and the brightest, or being a place where scholarship was valued, where students were taught critical thinking skills, the University I attended was nothing more than an expensive diploma mill for the children of the wealthy. In the eyes of the University, students were not minds to be empowered and developed, but walking dollar signs. ..."
"... Instead of critical thinking, students were taught to OBEY, not to question authority, and then handed a piece of paper admitting them to the ruling class that is destroying America without a moral compass. Selfishness, deceit, disregard for the common good, and a win-at-all-costs attitude were rewarded. Empathy, curiosity, dissent, and an honest, intellectually rigorous evaluation of ourselves and our world were punished. Obviously I am not the only one to whom this was cause to fear for the future of our country. ..."
"... The chapter involving the porn trade that is run by large corporations such as AT&T and GM (the car maker, for crying out loud) was an especially dark, profanity-laced depiction of the abuse and moral decay of American society . ..."
"... He is correct in his belief that the continual barrage of psuedo-events and puffery disguised as news (especially television) has conditioned most of Americans to be non-critical thinkers. ..."
"... Entertainment, consumption and the dangerous illusion that the U.S. is the best in the world at everything are childish mindsets. ..."
"... The are the puppet masters." As extreme as that is, he is more credible when he says, "Commodities and celebrity culture define what it means to belong, how we recognize our place in society, and how we conduct our lives." I say 'credible' because popular and mass culture's influence are creating a world where substance is replaced by questionable style. ..."
"... Celebrity and connectivity are both ways of becoming known. This is what the contemporary self wants. It wants to be recognized, wants to be connected: It wants to be visible. If not to the millions, on Survivor or Oprah, then to the hundreds, on Twitter or Facebook. ..."
"... Visibility has replaced substance and accomplishment; packaging over product, sizzle not steak. Chris Rojek calls this "the cult of distraction" where society is consumed by the vacuous and the vapid rather than striving for self-awareness, accomplishment and contribution ("Propaganda has become a substitute for ideas and ideology."). Hedges builds on Rojek's descriptor by suggesting we are living in a "culture of illusion" which impoverishes language, makes us childlike, and is basically dumbing us all down. ..."
"... Today's delusionary and corrupted officials, corporate and government, are reminiscent of the narratives penned by Charles Dickens. Alexander Hamilton referred to the masses as a "great beast" to be kept from the powers of government. ..."
"... Edmund Burke used propaganda to control "elements of society". Walter Lippmann advised that "the public must be kept in its place". Yet, many Americans just don't get it. ..."
"... Divide and conquer is the mantra--rich vs. poor; black vs. white. According to Norm Chomsky's writings, "In 1934, William Shepard argued that government should be in the hands of `aristocracy and intellectual power' while the `ignorant, and the uninformed and the antisocial element' must not be permitted to control elections...." ..."
"... The appalling statistics and opinions outlined in the book demonstrate the public ignorance of the American culture; the depth and extent of the corporatocracy and the related economic malaise; and, the impact substandard schools have on their lives. ..."
"... This idea was recently usurped by the U.S. Supreme Court where representative government is called to question, rendering "our" consent irrelevant. Every voting election is an illusion. Each election, at the local and national level, voters never seemingly "miss an opportunity to miss an opportunity" to eliminate irresponsible and unresponsive officials. ..."
"... Walt Kelly's quote "We have met the enemy and he is us" prevails! ..."
"... It's also hard to follow at times as Hedges attempts to stress the connections between pop culture and social, political. and economic policy. Nor is Hedges a particularly stylish writer (a sense of humor would help). ..."
"... The stomach-turning chapter on trends in porn and their relationship to the torture of prisoners of war is a particularly sharp piece of analysis, and all of the other chapters do eventually convince (and depress). ..."
Hedges cogently and systematically dismantles the most pernicious cultural delusions of
our era and lays bare the pitiful truths that they attempt to mask. This book is a
deprogramming manual that trims away the folly and noise from our troubled society so that
the reader can focus on the most pressing matters of our time.
Despite the dark reality Hedges excavates, his screed is a liberating tonic against
the crazy-making double-speak and the lies Americans are sold by our country's elite in order
to distract us from the true threat and nature of the Corporate State, from the cult of
celebrity, to how our nation's Universities have been hijacked to serve the interests, not of
the public, but of our corporate overlords. It explains the self-same conditions in all
aspects of our society and culture that we now must face, the ever-shrinking flame of
enlightenment being exchanged for the illusory shadows on a cave wall.
As a twenty-something caught in the death-throes of American Empire and culture, I have
struggled to anticipate where our country and our world are heading, why, and what sort of
life I can expect to build for myself. Hedges presents the reader with the depressing, yet
undeniable truth of the forces that have coalesced to shape the world in which we now find
ourselves. The light he casts is searing and relentless. He fearlessly and incisively
calls us out on the obvious farce our democracy has become, how we got here, and highlights
the rapidly closing window in which we have to do something to correct it. It is a
revelation, and yet he merely states the obvious. The empire has no clothes.
One of the most powerful aspects of this book was in regard to how our Universities
are run these days. I may be in the minority, but I experienced a life-changing
disillusionment when I gained entrance to a prestigious "elite" University. Instead of
drawing the best and the brightest, or being a place where scholarship was valued, where
students were taught critical thinking skills, the University I attended was nothing more
than an expensive diploma mill for the children of the wealthy. In the eyes of the
University, students were not minds to be empowered and developed, but walking dollar
signs.
Instead of critical thinking, students were taught to OBEY, not to question authority,
and then handed a piece of paper admitting them to the ruling class that is destroying
America without a moral compass. Selfishness, deceit, disregard for the common good, and a
win-at-all-costs attitude were rewarded. Empathy, curiosity, dissent, and an honest,
intellectually rigorous evaluation of ourselves and our world were punished. Obviously I am
not the only one to whom this was cause to fear for the future of our country.
Five stars is not enough. Ever since I began reading Empire of Illusion, I have insisted
friends and family pick up a copy, too. Everyone in America should read this incredibly
important book.
Mr. Hedges is in one heck of a foul mood. His raging against the evolving of American
democracy into an oligarchy is accurate, but relentlessly depressing. The author focuses on
some of our most horrid characteristics: celebrity worship; "pro" wrestling; the brutal porn
industry; Jerry Springer-like shows; the military-industrial complex; the moral void of elite
colleges such as Yale, Harvard, Berkeley and Princeton; optimistic-ladened pop psychology;
and political/corporate conformity.
Mr. Hedges grim assessment put me in a seriously foul mood. The chapter involving the
porn trade that is run by large corporations such as AT&T and GM (the car maker, for
crying out loud) was an especially dark, profanity-laced depiction of the abuse and moral
decay of American society .
He is correct in his belief that the continual barrage of psuedo-events and puffery
disguised as news (especially television) has conditioned most of Americans to be
non-critical thinkers.
Entertainment, consumption and the dangerous illusion that the U.S. is the best in the
world at everything are childish mindsets.
The oddest part of Mr. Hedges' book is the ending. The last three pages take such an
unexpectedly hard turn from "all is lost" to "love will conquer," I practically got whiplash.
Overall, the author should be commended for trying to bring our attention to what ails our
country and challenging readers to wake up from their child-like illusions.
Now, time for me to go run a nice, warm bath and where did I put those razor
blades?...
I must say I was captivated by the author's passion, eloquence and insight. This is not an
academic essay. True, there are few statistics here and there and quotes from such and such
person, but this is not like one of those books that read like a longer version of an
academic research paper. The book is more of author's personal observations about American
society. Perhaps that is where its power comes from.
Some might dismiss the book as nothing more than an opinion piece, but how many great
books and works out there are opinion pieces enhanced with supporting facts and
statistics?
The book is divided into five chapters. Chapter one is about celebrity worship and how far
people are willing to humiliate themselves and sacrifice their dignity for their five minutes
of fame. But this is not just about those who are willing to make idiots out of themselves
just to appear on television. This is about how the fascination with the world of rich and
famous distracts the society from the important issues and problems and how it creates
unhealthy and destructive desire to pursue wealth and fame. And even for those few who do
achieve it, their lives are far from the bliss and happiness shown in movies. More than one
celebrity had cursed her life.
Chapter two deals with porn. It offers gutwrenching, vomit inducing descriptions of lives
and conditions in the porn industry. But the damage porn does goes far beyond those working
in the "industry". Porn destroys the love, intimacy and beauty of sex. Porn reduces sex to an
act of male dominance, power and even violence. Unfortunately, many men, and even women, buy
into that and think that the sex seen in porn is normal and this is how things should be.
After reading this chapter, I will never look at porn the same way again. In fact, I
probably will never look at porn at all.
Chapter three is about education. It focuses mostly on college level education and how in
the past few decades it had increasingly changed focus from teaching students how to be
responsible citizens and good human beings to how to be successful, profit seeking, career
obsessed corporate/government drones. The students are taught that making money and career
building are the only thing that matters. This results in professionals who put greed and
selfishness above everything else and mindlessly serve a system that destroys the society and
the whole planet. And when they are faced with problems (like the current economic crisis)
and evidence that the system is broken, rather than rethink their paradigm and consider that
perhaps they were wrong, they retreat further into old thinking in search of ways to
reinforce the (broken) system and keep it going.
Chapter four is my favorite. It is about positive thinking. As someone who lives with a
family member who feeds me positive thinking crap at breakfast, lunch and supper, I enjoyed
this chapter very much. For those rare lucky few who do not know what positive thinking is,
it can be broadly defined as a belief that whatever happens to us in life, it happens because
we "attracted" it to ourselves. Think about it as karma that affects us not in the next life,
but in this one. The movement believes that our conscious and unconscious thoughts affect
reality. By assuming happy, positive outlook on life, we can affect reality and make good
things happen to us.
Followers of positive thinking are encouraged/required to purge all negative emotions,
never question the bad things that happen to them and focus on thinking happy thoughts.
Positive thinking is currently promoted by corporations and to lesser extent governments to
keep employees in line. They are rendered docile and obedient, don't make waves (like fight
for better pay and working conditions) and, when fired, take it calmly with a smile and never
question corporate culture.
Chapter five is about American politics and how the government and the politicians had
sold themselves out to corporations and business. It is about imperialism and how the
government helps the corporations loot the country while foreign wars are started under the
pretext of defense and patriotism, but their real purpose is to loot the foreign lands and
fill the coffers of war profiteers. If allowed to continue, this system will result in
totalitarianism and ecological apocalypse.
I have some objections with this chapter. While I completely agree about the current state
of American politics, the author makes a claim that this is a relatively recent development
dating roughly to the Vietnam War. Before that, especially in the 1950s, things were much
better. Or at least they were for the white men. (The author does admit that 1950s were not
all that great to blacks, women or homosexuals.)
While things might have gotten very bad in the last few decades, politicians and
governments have always been more at the service of Big Money rather than the common
people.
And Vietnam was not the first imperialistic American war. What about the conquest of Cuba
and Philippines at the turn of the 20th century? And about all those American "adventures" in
South America in the 19th century. And what about the westward expansion and extermination of
Native Americans that started the moment the first colonists set their foot on the
continent?
But this is a minor issue. My biggest issue with the book is that it is a powerful
denunciation, but it does not offer much in terms of suggestions on how to fix the problems
it is decrying. Criticizing is good and necessary, but offering solutions is even more
important. You can criticize all you want, but if you cannot suggest something better, then
the old system will stay in place.
The author does write at the end a powerful, tear inducing essay on how love conquers all
and that no totalitarian regime, no matter how powerful and oppressive, had ever managed to
crush hope, love and the human spirit. Love, in the end, conquers all.
That is absolutely true. But what does it mean in practice? That we must keep loving and
doing good? Of course we must, but some concrete, practical examples of what to do would be
welcome.
An excellent and sobering view at the decline of reason and literacy in modern society
This is an absolutely superb work that documents how our society has been subverted by
spectacle, glitz, celebrity, and the obsession with "fame" at the expense of reality,
literacy, reason, and actual ability. Hedges lays it all out in a very clear and thought
provoking style, using real world examples like pro wrestling and celebrity oriented
programming to showcase how severely our society has declined from a forward thinking,
literate one into a mass of tribes obsessed with stardom and money.
Even better is that the author's style is approachable and non judgemental. This isn't an
academic talking down to the masses, but a very solid reporter presenting findings in an
accurate, logical style.
Every American should read this, and then consider whether to buy that glossy celebrity
oriented magazine or watch that "I want to be a millionaire" show. The lifestyle and choices
being promoted by the media, credit card companies, and by the celebrity culture in general,
are toxic and a danger to our society's future.
The various ills impacting society graphically painted by Chris Hedges are attributed to a
lack of literacy. However, it is much more complex, layered, and inter-related. By examining
literacy, love, wisdom, happiness, and the current state of America, the author sets out to
convince the reader that our world is intellectually crumbling. He picks aspects of our
society that clearly offer questionable value: professional wrestling, the pornographic film
industry (which is provided in bizarre repetitive graphic detail), gambling, conspicuous
consumption, and biased news reporting to name a few.
The front of the end of the book was the most compelling. Especially when Hedges strays
into near conspiracy with comments such as this: "Those who manipulate the shadows that
dominate our lives are the agents, publicists, marketing departments, promoters, script
writers, television and movie producers, advertisers, video technicians, photographers,
bodyguards, wardrobe consultants, fitness trainers, pollsters, public announcers, and
television news personalities who create the vast stage for illusion. The are the puppet
masters." As extreme as that is, he is more credible when he says, "Commodities and celebrity
culture define what it means to belong, how we recognize our place in society, and how we
conduct our lives." I say 'credible' because popular and mass culture's influence are
creating a world where substance is replaced by questionable style.
What resonated most in the book is a passage taken from William Deresiewicz's essay The
End of Solitude: "What does the contemporary self want? The camera has created a culture of
celebrity; the computer is creating a culture of connectivity. As the two technologies
converge -- broadband tipping the Web from text to image, social-networking sites spreading
the mesh of interconnection ever wider -- the two cultures betray a common impulse.
Celebrity and connectivity are both ways of becoming known. This is what the
contemporary self wants. It wants to be recognized, wants to be connected: It wants to be
visible. If not to the millions, on Survivor or Oprah, then to the hundreds, on Twitter or
Facebook. This is the quality that validates us, this is how we become real to ourselves
-- by being seen by others. The great contemporary terror is anonymity. If Lionel Trilling
was right, if the property that grounded the self, in Romanticism, was sincerity, and in
modernism it was authenticity, then in postmodernism it is visibility."
Visibility has replaced substance and accomplishment; packaging over product, sizzle
not steak. Chris Rojek calls this "the cult of distraction" where society is consumed by the
vacuous and the vapid rather than striving for self-awareness, accomplishment and
contribution ("Propaganda has become a substitute for ideas and ideology."). Hedges builds on
Rojek's descriptor by suggesting we are living in a "culture of illusion" which impoverishes
language, makes us childlike, and is basically dumbing us all down.
This is definitely a provocative contribution and damning analysis of our society that
would be a great choice for a book club. It would promote lively debate as conclusions and
solutions are not easily reached.
A book that needs to be read, even if it's only half true.
Empire of Illusion might be the most depressing book I've ever read. Why? Because it
predicts the collapse of America and almost every word of it rings true.
I don't know if there's really anything new here; many of the ideas Hedges puts forth have
been floating around in the neglected dark corners of our national discourse, but Hedges
drags them all out into the daylight. Just about every social/cultural/economic/political ill
you can think of is mentioned at some point in the text and laid at the feet of the villains
whose insatiable greed has destroyed this once-great country. Hedges is bold. He predicts
nothing less than the end of America. Indeed, he claims America has already ended. The
American Dream is nothing more than an illusion being propped up by wealthy elites obsessed
with power and the preservation of their lifestyle, a blind academia that has forgotten how
to critique authority, and a government that is nothing more than the puppet of corporations.
Meanwhile, mindless entertainments and a compliant news media divert and mislead the working
and middle classes so they don't even notice that they are being raped to death by the
power-elite and the corporations.
(Don't misunderstand. This is no crack-pot conspiracy theory. It's not about secret
quasi-mystical cabals attempting world domination. Rather, Hedges paints a credible picture
of our culture in a state of moral and intellectual decay, and leaders corrupted by power and
greed who have ceased to act in the public interest.)
At times Hedges seems to be ranting and accusing without providing evidence or examples to
substantiate his claims. But that might only be because his claims have already been
substantiated individually elsewhere, and Hedges's purpose here is a kind of grand synthesis
of many critical ideas. Indeed, an exhaustive analysis of all the issues he brings forth
would require volumes rather than a single book. In any case, I challenge anyone to read this
book, look around honestly at what's happening in America, and conclude that Hedges is
wrong.
One final note: this book is not for the squeamish. The chapter about pornography is
brutally explicit. Still, I think it is an important book, and it would be good if a lot more
people would read it, discuss it, and thereby become dis-illusioned.
Chris Hedges book, "Empire of Illusion" is a stinging assessment and vivid indictment of
America's political and educational systems; a well-told story. I agree with his views but
wonder how they can be reversed or transformed given the economic hegemony of the
corporations and the weight of the entrenched political parties. Very few solutions were
provided.
Corporations will continue to have a presence and set standards within the halls of
educational and governmental institutions with impunity. Limited monetary measures, other
than governmental, exist for public educational institutions, both secondary and
post-secondary. Historically, Roman and Greek political elitists operated in a similar manner
and may have set standards for today's plutocracy. Plebeian societies were helpless and
powerless, with few options, to enact change against the political establishment. Given the
current conditions, America is on a downward spiral to chaos.
His book is a clarion call for action. Parents and teachers have warned repeatedly that
too much emphasis is placed on athletic programs at the expense of academics. Educational
panels, books and other experts have done little to reform the system and its intransigent
administrators.
Today's delusionary and corrupted officials, corporate and government, are reminiscent
of the narratives penned by Charles Dickens. Alexander Hamilton referred to the masses as a
"great beast" to be kept from the powers of government.
Edmund Burke used propaganda to control "elements of society". Walter Lippmann advised
that "the public must be kept in its place". Yet, many Americans just don't get it.
They continue to be hood-winked by politicians using uncontested "sound bites" and
"racially-coded" phrases to persuade voters.
Divide and conquer is the mantra--rich vs. poor; black vs. white. According to Norm
Chomsky's writings, "In 1934, William Shepard argued that government should be in the hands
of `aristocracy and intellectual power' while the `ignorant, and the uninformed and the
antisocial element' must not be permitted to control elections...."
The appalling statistics and opinions outlined in the book demonstrate the public
ignorance of the American culture; the depth and extent of the corporatocracy and the related
economic malaise; and, the impact substandard schools have on their lives. This is
further exemplified by Jay Leno's version of "Jaywalking". On the streets, he randomly
selects passersby to interview, which seems to validate much of these charges.
We are all culpable. We are further susceptible to illusions. John Locke said, "Government
receives its just powers from the consent of the governed".
This idea was recently usurped by the U.S. Supreme Court where representative
government is called to question, rendering "our" consent irrelevant. Every voting election
is an illusion. Each election, at the local and national level, voters never seemingly "miss
an opportunity to miss an opportunity" to eliminate irresponsible and unresponsive
officials.
Walt Kelly's quote "We have met the enemy and he is us" prevails!
There are many flaws with Hedges' book. For one thing, he is given to writing sermons (his
father was a minister), hurling down denunciations in the manner of the prophet Amos. The
book also tends to be repetitious, as Hedges makes the same general statements over and over.
It's also hard to follow at times as Hedges attempts to stress the connections between
pop culture and social, political. and economic policy. Nor is Hedges a particularly stylish
writer (a sense of humor would help).
His last-second "happy ending" (something like: we're all doomed, but eventually,
somewhere down the line, love will prevail beacuse it's ultimately the strongest power on
earth) is, to say the least, unconvincing.
SO why am I recommending this book? Because in spite of its flaws (and maybe even because
of them), this is a powerful depiction of the state of American society. The book does get to
you in its somewhat clumsy way.
The stomach-turning chapter on trends in porn and their relationship to the torture of
prisoners of war is a particularly sharp piece of analysis, and all of the other chapters do
eventually convince (and depress).
This book will not exactly cheer you up, but at least it will give you an understanding of
where we are (and where we're heading).
"... Generally speaking, neoliberalism is a set of social, cultural, and political-economic forces that puts competition at the center of social life. According to neoliberalism, government's charge is not the care and security of citizens, but rather the promotion of market competition. In the neoliberal imagination, public social infrastructures (such as social security, unemployment benefits, public education) are believed to squash entrepreneurialism and individualism and breed dependency and bureaucracy. ..."
"... Gramsci's question is still pressing: How and why do ordinary working folks come to accept a system where wealth is produced by their collective labors and energies but appropriated individually by only a few at the top? The theory of hegemony suggests that the answer to this question is not simply a matter of direct exploitation and control by the capitalist class. Rather, hegemony posits that power is maintained through ongoing, ever-shifting cultural processes of winning the consent of the governed, that is, ordinary people like you and me. ..."
"... As Figure 1.1 shows, neoliberal hegemony works to erase this line between public and private and to create an entire society -- in fact, an entire world -- based on private, market competition. In this way, neoliberalism represents a radical reinvention of liberalism and thus of the horizons of hegemonic struggle. Crucially, within neoliberalism, the state's function does not go away; rather, it is deconstructed and reconstructed tow ard the new' end of expanding private markets. ..."
"... At this point, neoliberalism was still swimming upstream, as the postwar era ushered in a new' conjuncture that David Harvey calls embedded liberalism. ..."
"... Embedded liberalism was premised on a "class compromise" between the interests of workers and those of capitalists. In the name of peace, general prosperity, and global capitalism, a hegemonic consensus emerged "that the state should focus on full employment, economic growth, and the welfare of its citizens, and that state power should be freely deployed, alongside of or, if necessary, intervening in or even substituting for market processes to achieve these ends." 4 ..."
"... Neoliberalism developed largely as a coordinated political response to the hegemony of embedded liberalism. As Harvey explains, it was a project "to disembed capital from these constraints." 6 Indeed, the struggle for neoliberal hegemony waged a robust and successful class war on the "compromise" of embedded liberalism by developing, promoting, and implementing a new version of individual-liberty liberalism. ..."
"... As the system of embedded liberalism was taking root and establishing its dominance in national and international affairs, neoliberals were working on the ground: creating think tanks, forging political alliances, and infiltrating universities. During this second phase, neoliberalism emerged as a "thought collective": a "multilevel, multiphase, multi-sector approach to the building of political capacity to incubate, critique, and promulgate ideas." 7 ..."
"... The Neoliberal Thought Collective, as Philip Mirowski coined it, was a vertically integrated network of organizations and people focused on radically shifting the [concensus. ] ..."
Generally speaking, neoliberalism is a set of social, cultural, and political-economic forces that puts competition at the
center of social life. According to neoliberalism, government's charge is not the care and security of citizens, but rather the promotion
of market competition. In the neoliberal imagination, public social infrastructures (such as social security, unemployment benefits,
public education) are believed to squash entrepreneurialism and individualism and breed dependency and bureaucracy.
Competition, on the other hand, is heralded to ensure efficiency and incite creativity. Spurred by competition, individuals, organizations,
companies, and even the government itself, will seek to optimize and innovate, creating a truly free social world where the best
people and ideas come out on top. Put a little differently, neoliberalism aims to create a market-based society, where there are
only competing private enterprises.
Since the late 1970s, neoliberal ideas have increasingly guided the policies and practices of governments and other social institutions,
and as a result, we have come to live in competition with ourselves, others, and our social world.
...In a neoliberal society, the capitalist market is no longer imagined as a distinct arena where goods are valued and exchanged;
rather, the market is, or ideally should be, the basis for all human activities.
...We are necessarily interdependent beings, vulnerable and connected to one another, as our lives are supported and made possible
by a number of infrastructures (e.g., schools, roads and bridges, communication) that bring us into relation with one another.
We need each other. We need social cooperation and a commitment to a common, collective good if we are all going to make it in
this world.
Neoliberalism and its diffusion of competition throughout society make the infrastructures that undergird our lives profoundly
unstable, while simultaneously diminishing our senses of interdependence and social connection. As we will see, living in competition
paradoxically undercuts what enables our lives -- that is, our social connections and infrastructures -- while telling us to assume
more and more responsibility through self-enclosed individualism, thereby squashing our capacities for coming together, trusting
and caring for each other, and organizing for social change.
... ... ...
In a culture composed ot anxious, sell-enclosed individuals, where market competition defines all of social life, we need now,
more than ever, to see the social constructedness of our identities, worlds, and everyday lives. For neoliberalism's culture of living
in competition is so entrenched that only a cultural studies perspective can produce the forms of knowledge we need to imagine and
build new worlds. Indeed, a cultural studies perspective understands that possibilities of resistance and transformation are everywhere.
As Grossberg puts it,
power is never able to totalize itself. There are always fissures and fault lines that may become the active sites of change.
Power never quite accomplishes everything it might like to everywhere, and there is always the possibility of changing the structures
and organization of power.7
See, here's the thing; there's a gigantic paradox at the heart of neoliberal culture. On one hand, as we will see, neoliberalism
presents itself as a totalizing situation where resistance and transformation seem impossible, as living in competition has come
to define all aspects of our lives. On the other hand, though, neoliberalism's power over our lives is incredibly tenuous; for, as
mentioned earlier, I am convinced that most of us are yearning for a vastly different world, one that is built upon and nurtures
our interdependencies and shared vulnerabilities, not self-enclosed individualism and living in competition.
... ... ...
1 should note that, within academia, neoliberalism is a controversial term. Scholars continue to debate its usefulness. On one
hand, for some, neoliberalism is a buzzword, a catchphrase; it is a term that is so often repeated and invoked that it has lost its
meaning. According to these critiques, neoliberalism is presented as a scary monster that is everywhere and nowhere all at once.
It has come to figure as shorthand for everything that is evil in our world, and as a result, it ends up teaching us very little
about what specifically is wrong, how exactly we got here, and what actually can be done to change course. Thus, many scholars advocate
not using the term at all. On the other hand, other scholars prefer not to use the term because they argue that it is misleading.
For them, neoliberalism is simply an advanced form of liberal capitalism. There's nothing really new or neo here, so why overstate
and confuse things with the prefix?
However, despite these critiques, I hang onto the term neoliberalism. My wager in doing so is that writing this book as a critical
study of neoliberal culture gives us a way to map our current conjuncture. It allows us to hold together the "specific ensemble of
social, cultural, and economic forces" at work in our world and, thus, to locate our lives in interrelation with those of others.
Indeed, I have found during my work with students over the years that studying neoliberalism enables us to see our interconnectedness
and the new ways of living that sensing our interconnectedness opens up. We all suffer when we're forced to live in competition as
self-enclosed individuals. Studying the neoliberal conjuncture allows us to clearly identify the roots of our suffering, and to tr
ace our connections with others who are also suffering, although often in variegated ways. In other words, when w'e map our conjuncture,
we can see how our different lives are lived on common ground, which is a crucial step to creating a world beyond competition.
At this point, you might have a sense of what neoliberalism is, but you're probably still fuzzy on the details. This chapter starts
to clear things up by charting the making of our neoliberal conjuncture. By tracing the history and development of neoliberalism,
we will leant how competition came to be the driving force in our everyday lives. Specifically, we will examine the rise of neoliberal
hegemony in four phases.
Table 1.1 Four Phases of Neoliberalism
Phase I 1920-1950 Theoretical innovation
Phase II 1950-1980 Organizing, institution building, and knowledge production
Phase III 1980-2000 Crisis management and policy implementation
Phase IV 2000 -- Present Crisis ordinariness and precarity
As we will see, neoliberalism is far from natur and necessary; rather, it represents a clear political project that was organized,
struggled for, and won.
A NEW HEGEMONY
We begin our investigation with a historical account of the rise of neoliberal hegemony. Hegemony is a concept developed by Italian
Marxist Antonio Gramsci. Gramsci was keen to account for the definitive role that culture played in legitimizing and sustaining capitalism
and its exploitation of the working classes. In our own context of extreme economic inequality, Gramsci's question is still pressing:
How and why do ordinary working folks come to accept a system where wealth is produced by their collective labors and energies but
appropriated individually by only a few at the top? The theory of hegemony suggests that the answer to this question is not simply
a matter of direct exploitation and control by the capitalist class. Rather, hegemony posits that power is maintained through ongoing,
ever-shifting cultural processes of winning the consent of the governed, that is, ordinary people like you and me.
In other words, if we want to really understand why and how phenomena like inequality and exploitation exist, we have to attend
to the particular, contingent, and often contradictory ways in which culture gets mobilized to forward the interests and power of
the ruling classes. According to Gramsci, there was not one ruling class, but rather a historical bloc, "a moving equilibrium" of
class interests and values. Hegemony names a cultural struggle for moral, social, economic, and political leadership; in this struggle,
a field -- or assemblage -- of practices, discourses, values, and beliefs come to be dominant. While this field is powerful and firmly
entrenched, it is also open to contestation. In other words, hegemonic power is always on the move; it has to keep winning our consent
to survive, and sometimes it fails to do so.
Through the lens of hegemony, we can think about the rise of neoliberalism as an ongoing political project -- and class struggle
-- to shift society's political equilibrium and create a new dominant field. Specifically, we are going to trace the shift from liberal
to neoliberal hegemony. This shift is represented in the two images below.
Previous versions of liberal hegemony imagined society to be divided into distinct public and private spheres. The public sphere
was the purview of the state, and its role was to ensure the formal rights and freedoms of citizens through the rule of law. The
private sphere included the economy and the domestic sphere of home and family.
For the most part, liberal hegemony was animated by a commitment to limited government, as the goal was to allow for as much freedom
in trade, associations, and civil society as possible, while preserving social order and individual rights. Politics took shape largely
around the line between public and private; more precisely, it was a struggle over where and how to draw the line. In other words,
within the field of liberal hegemony, politics was a question of how to define the uses and limits of the state and its public function
in a capitalist society. Of course, political parties often disagreed passionately about where and how to draw that line. As we'll
see below, many advocated for laissez-faire capitalism, while others argued for a greater public role in ensuring the health, happiness,
and rights of citizens. What's crucial though is that everyone agreed that there was a line to be drawn, and that there was a public
function for the state.
As Figure 1.1 shows, neoliberal hegemony works to erase this line between public and private and to create an entire society
-- in fact, an entire world -- based on private, market competition. In this way, neoliberalism represents a radical reinvention
of liberalism and thus of the horizons of hegemonic struggle. Crucially, within neoliberalism, the state's function does not go away;
rather, it is deconstructed and reconstructed tow ard the new' end of expanding private markets.
Consequently, contemporary politics take shape around questions of how best to promote competition. For the most part, politics
on both the left and right have been subsumed by neoliberal hegemony. For example, while neoliberalism made its debut in Western
politics with the right-wing administrations of Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, leaders associated with the left have worked
to further neoliberal hegemony in stunning ways. As we will explore in more depth below and in die coming chapters, both U.S. presidents
Bill Clinton and Barack Obama have governed to create a privatized, market society. In other words, there is both a left and a right
hegemonic horizon of neoliberalism. Thus, moving beyond neoliberalism will ultimately require a whole new field of politics.
It is important to see that the gradual shift from liberal to neoliberal hegemony was not inevitable or natural, nor was it easy.
Rather, what we now r call neoliberalism is the effect of a sustained hegemonic struggle over the course of the twentieth
and twentyfirst centuries to construct and maintain a new political equilibrium. Simply put, neoliberalism was, and continues to
be, struggled over, fought for, and w'on.
In Masters of the Universe: Hayek, Friedman, and the Birth of Neoliheral Politics, Daniel Stedman Jones charts the history of
the neoliberal project in three phases. The first phase saw the development of neoliberal ideas and philosophies in Europe during
the years between World War I and World War II, as a relatively small group of economists (including most notably those from Austria,
Germany, and France), wrestling with the rise of fascism, communism, and socialism, sought to envision a new liberal society that
would protect individual liberties and free markets. The second phase w as a period of institution building, knowledge production,
and organizing that enabled neoliberalism to cultivate a powerful base in culture and politics, especially in the U.S. and United
Kingdom. During this phase, neoliberalism developed into a "thought collective" and full-fledged political movement. In the third
phase, neoliberal ideas migrated from the margins to the center of political life as they came to shape global trade and development
suggested by the theory of hegemony, none of these phases were neat and clean; each was shot through with struggle and contingency.
1 am adding a fourth phase, which is the focus of this book. Here neoliberalism is not only a set of economic policies and political
discourses, but also a deeply entrenched sensibility of w ho we are and can become and of what is possible to do, both individually
and collectively. It is what Raymond Williams called "a structure of feeling." Thanks to a convergence of different social, economic,
and cultural forces, which we will explore throughout the following chapters, competition has become fully embedded in our lifeworlds:
it is our culture, our conjuncture, the air we breathe. More specifically, this fourth phase is characterized by widespread precarity,
where crisis becomes ordinary, a constant feature of everyday life. As we will learn in coming chapters, we are prompted to confront
the precarity neoliberalism brings to our lives with more neoliberalism, that is, with living in competition and self-enclosed individualism.
PHASE I: THEORETICAL INNOVATION
The Crisis of Liberalism and the Birth of the Social Welfare State
Neoliberalism emerged out of the crisis of liberalism that ultimately came to a head in the early twentieth century. It is crucial
to understand that liberal hegemony was never a coherent, unified phenomenon. Rather, it developed around a central political antagonism.
On one side were those who championed individual liberty (especially private property rights and free markets) above all else. They
argued against government intervention in private life, especially in the market. On the other side, social reformers believed that
government should be pursued for the common good and not just for individual liberties. In the decades leading up to the Great Depression,
it became clear that the individual-liberty side, which had long been dominant, was inadequate for managing huge transformations
in capitalism that were underway. These transformations included industrialization, urbanization, and internationalization, as well
as the rise of large-scale corporate firms that squeezed smaller market actors. Huge gaps formed between the political-economic elite,
the middle classes, and the poor. Simply put, liberalism was in crisis.
During this time of social, cultural, and economic upheaval, those espousing the common good gained political ground. Specifically,
the misery and devastation of the Great Depression solidified the gains for social reformers, opening a new era where a new, common-good
liberalism began to prevail. In the United States, President Franklin
Roosevelt's administration passed a comprehensive set of social policies designed to protect individuals from the unpredictable
and often brutal operations of capitalism. These included the following:
Reforming banking: The Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 set up regulatory agencies to provide oversight to the stock markets
and financial sector, while enforcing the separation of commercial banking and speculative investment. Simply put, banks couldn't
gamble with your savings and future.
Strengthening labor: In 1935, the National Recovery Administration and the National Labor Relations Act were passed
to recognize labor unions and the rights of workers to organize. At the same time, the administration spurred employment through
the Public Works Administration, the Civil Works Administration, and the Works Progress Administration, while guaranteeing workers
a dignified retirement with the Social Security Act of 1935.
Promoting housing: A range of programs, policies, and agencies were established, including the Federal Housing Administration
and the U.S. Housing Authority, to encourage homeownership and provide housing to the poor and homeless. 1
Taken together, these policies marked the birth of the so-called social welfare state, albeit one that was limited in scope and
often highly exclusionary in practice. For example, a universal health care program was never realized. Many social groups, including
African-Americans, migrant farm workers, and women, were prohibited by law from receiving federal benefits such as social security
or unemployment. 3 Additionally, institutional racism plagued (as it still does) housing and banking institutions.
The Walter Lippmann Colloquium and the Birth of Neoliberalism
It is helpful to trace the emergence of our neoliberal conjuncture back to this moment where the common good was starting to win
the day via the establishment of a limited and exclusionary social welfare state. For, despite the fact that these social welfare
policies effectively "saved" capitalism from destroying itself, the individual-liberty side was deeply troubled. They feared that
a new and established the Mont Pelerin Society (MPS) in 1947 to continue the work of dreaming up a new individual-liberty liberalism.
At this point, neoliberalism was still swimming upstream, as the postwar era ushered in a new' conjuncture that David Harvey
calls embedded liberalism.
Embedded liberalism was premised on a "class compromise" between the interests of workers and those of capitalists. In the
name of peace, general prosperity, and global capitalism, a hegemonic consensus emerged "that the state should focus on full employment,
economic growth, and the welfare of its citizens, and that state power should be freely deployed, alongside of or, if necessary,
intervening in or even substituting for market processes to achieve these ends." 4
A central piece of the embedded liberal compromise was the Bretton Woods Accord, which attempted to stabilize the global economy
by re-fixing currency rates to the gold standard. The idea was that national economies shouldn't be threatened by currency speculation
in the financial markets. All this meant that an infrastructure emerged to protect citizens' economic and social security. To ensure
the common good, capitalism must be embedded within "a web of social and political constraints." 5
Neoliberalism developed largely as a coordinated political response to the hegemony of embedded liberalism. As Harvey explains,
it was a project "to disembed capital from these constraints." 6 Indeed, the struggle for neoliberal hegemony waged a
robust and successful class war on the "compromise" of embedded liberalism by developing, promoting, and implementing a new version
of individual-liberty liberalism.
The Neoliberal Thought Collective
As the system of embedded liberalism was taking root and establishing its dominance in national and international affairs,
neoliberals were working on the ground: creating think tanks, forging political alliances, and infiltrating universities. During
this second phase, neoliberalism emerged as a "thought collective": a "multilevel, multiphase, multi-sector approach to the building
of political capacity to incubate, critique, and promulgate ideas." 7
The Neoliberal Thought Collective, as Philip Mirowski coined it, was a vertically integrated network of organizations and
people focused on radically shifting the [concensus. ]
"... Financialisation represents a historic and deep-seated transformation of mature capitalism. Big businesses have become "financialised" as they have ample profits to finance investment, rely less on banks for loans and play financial games with available funds. Big banks, in turn, have become more distant from big businesses, turning to profits from trading in open financial markets and from lending to households. Households have become "financialised" too, as public provision in housing, education, health, pensions and other vital areas has been partly replaced by private provision, access to which is mediated by the financial system. Not surprisingly, households have accumulated a tremendous volume of financial assets and liabilities over the past four decades. ..."
"... Financialisation has also created new forms of profit associated with financial markets and transactions. Financial profit can be made out of any income, or any sum of money that comes into contact with the financial sphere. Households, for example, generate profits for finance as debtors (mostly by paying interest on mortgages) but also as creditors (mostly by paying fees and charges on pension funds and insurance). Finance is not particular about how and where it makes its profits, and certainly does not limit itself to the sphere of production. It ranges far and wide, transforming every aspect of social life into a profit-making opportunity. ..."
"... Financialised capitalism is, thus, a deeply unequal system, prone to bubbles and crises – none greater than that of 2007-09. What can be done about it? The most important point in this respect is that financialisation does not represent an advance for humanity, and very little of it ought to be preserved. Financial markets are, for instance, able to mobilise advanced technology employing some of the best-trained physicists in the world to rebalance prices across the globe in milliseconds. This "progress" allows financiers to earn vast profits; but where is the commensurate benefit to society from committing such expensive resources to these tasks? ..."
"... The debate should focus on why neoliberalism was seen as the panacea to the relatively socialist post-War consensus. Neoliberalism is an ideology which has not even begun to be deconstructed. Like religion, the myths (concerning deficits and debt, for example) have been exposed here in CiF but not the global public -- and must be eventually. ..."
"... Big Brother=Neoliberalism=The Market=The Party=Enforcement ..."
"... Don't delude yourself. A capitalist "society" must have control over its citizens as intensive as a socialist one - just look at GCHQ/NSA. That it is exercised through markets and advertising instead of propaganda is neither here nor there. ..."
"... Thatcher's and Reagan's vicious, vile strikebreaking and the support they got from the supposedly free press and supposedly impartial judiciary in that is a good example. ..."
"... "The right way to think about it is that the financial industry must be doing something incredibly useful or it would not exist." What a ridiculous thing to say. By the same reasoning both bubonic plague and child abusers are both doing something incredibly useful, otherwise they would not exist. ..."
"... Classical economics generally sees things the way you do, and attempts to match up economics with reality. Neoclassical economics on the other hand, which is the system we're currently using, has little concern with reality. So the specific problem involves our economic system diverging from reality. ..."
"... Compounding factors involve the sociopathic nature of the individuals involved. For example, we think nothing about starting a war (generating profit for our military machine), then rebuilding the ravaged country (generating profit for our construction companies). In neoclassical economics that's just damned good business (the banks and corporations taking profits, the taxpayer footing the bill). ..."
"... There have always been alpha males and alpha females even, people who are very competitive, workaholics, who are leaders, who must be in charge. ..."
"... I think the difference in the last 30 years was Thatcherism and in very short order Reaganism. Adam Curtis says that Thatcher and her campaign manager were ardent anti-communists, they saw Britain in the grip of the unions as a kind of moral decay rotting the nation from the inside out (the enemy within) and they were both obsessed with Churchill, so they embarked on a Methodist 'the devil makes work for idle hands' market philosophy aimed at encouraging people to be self-sufficient, independent, have Victorian values, be as successful as possible and all that stuff. ..."
"... I think another thing is that capitalism then was still in its infancy of the turbo-on-steroids stage. For that cancer to truly metastasize we needed the personal computer network revolution that enabled globalisation, ..."
"... I agree that financialisation is a parasitic activity that will bring the body politic to its knees - and in the not too near future. This is capitalism that really doesn't give f**k about the environment or anyone who is not earning these obscene bucks shuffling electronic wizardry around to nobody's benefit but their own. ..."
"... Whose value system is overly competitive with the desire to win.. How can it be otherwise when we, ourselves, have brainwashed the children since the 1980s. We have given them Gameboys, Xboxes and the WoW where the emphasis is on winning. Play this for hours every day and the message becomes ingrained -- WIN ..."
"... The USSR had to be heavily militarized because its very existence depended on being able to defend itself against the aggressive USA and its little helpers, Nato-countries. It was surrounded by US military bases. That is the same US that went and murdered millions in SE Asia to "fight Communism". ..."
"... The article is about a global issue, not only your backyard. The people of UK can consider themselves lucky compared with billions of others. But what would you care. ..."
"... The financial sector, CEOs, oligarchs etc run on good old fashioned greed - a commodity not about to run out anytime soon. Is it even 'reversible' ? ..."
Finance's hold on our everyday life must be broken The rampant
capitalism that has brought the market into every corner of society needs to be reined in 'Financial
calculation evaluates everything in pennies and pounds, transforming the most basic goods – above
all, housing – into "investments".'
The rampant capitalism that has brought the market into every corner of society needs to be reined
in
The mature economies of the modern world, particularly the United States and Britain, are often
described as "financialised". The term reflects the ascendancy of the financial sector. Even more
important, it conveys the penetration of the financial system into every nook and cranny of society,
including housing, education, health and other areas of life that were previously relatively immune.
Evidence that financialisation represents a deep transformation of mature economies is offered
by the
global crisis of 2007-09 . The crisis originated in the elephantine US financial system, and
was associated with speculation in housing. For a brief period it led to serious questioning of mainstream
economic theory and policy: how to confront the turmoil, and what to do about the diseased financial
system; are new economic theories needed? However, after six years it is clear that very little has
changed. Financialisation is here to stay.
Consider, for instance, the policies to confront the crisis. First, public funds were injected
into banks to boost capital. Second, public liquidity was made available to banks to sustain their
operations. Third, public interest rates were driven to zero to enable banks to make secure profits
by lending to their own customers at higher rates.
This extraordinary public largesse towards private banks was matched by austerity and wage reductions
for workers and households. As for restructuring finance, nothing fundamental has taken place. The
behemoths that continue to dominate the global financial system operate in the knowledge that they
enjoy an unspoken public guarantee. The unpalatable reality is that financialisation will persist,
despite its costs for society.
Financialisation represents a historic and deep-seated transformation of mature capitalism.
Big businesses have become "financialised" as they have ample profits to finance investment, rely
less on banks for loans and play financial games with available funds. Big banks, in turn, have become
more distant from big businesses, turning to profits from trading in open financial markets and from
lending to households. Households have become "financialised" too, as public provision in housing,
education, health, pensions and other vital areas has been partly replaced by private provision,
access to which is mediated by the financial system. Not surprisingly, households have accumulated
a tremendous volume of financial assets and liabilities over the past four decades.
The penetration of finance into the everyday life of households has not only created a range of
dependencies on financial services, but also changed the outlook, mentality and even morality of
daily life. Financial calculation evaluates everything in pennies and pounds, transforming the most
basic goods – above all, housing – into "investments". Its logic has affected even the young, who
have traditionally been idealistic and scornful of pecuniary calculation. Fertile ground has been
created for neoliberal ideology to preach the putative merits of the market.
Financialisation has also created new forms of profit associated with financial markets and
transactions. Financial profit can be made out of any income, or any sum of money that comes into
contact with the financial sphere. Households, for example, generate profits for finance as debtors
(mostly by paying interest on mortgages) but also as creditors (mostly by paying fees and charges
on pension funds and insurance). Finance is not particular about how and where it makes its profits,
and certainly does not limit itself to the sphere of production. It ranges far and wide, transforming
every aspect of social life into a profit-making opportunity.
The traditional image of the person earning financial profits is the "rentier", the individual
who invests funds in secure financial assets. In the contemporary financialised universe, however,
those who earn vast returns are very different. They are often located within a financial institution,
presumably work to provide financial services, and receive vast sums in the form of wages, or more
often bonuses. Modern financial elites are prominent at the top of the income distribution, set trends
in conspicuous consumption, shape the expensive end of the housing market, and transform the core
of urban centres according to their own tastes.
Financialised capitalism is, thus, a deeply unequal system, prone to bubbles and crises –
none greater than that of 2007-09. What can be done about it? The most important point in this respect
is that financialisation does not represent an advance for humanity, and very little of it ought
to be preserved. Financial markets are, for instance, able to mobilise advanced technology employing
some of the best-trained physicists in the world to rebalance prices across the globe in milliseconds.
This "progress" allows financiers to earn vast profits; but where is the commensurate benefit to
society from committing such expensive resources to these tasks?
Financialisation ought to be reversed. Yet such an entrenched system will never be reversed by
regulation alone. Its reversal also requires the creation of public banking that would operate with
a new spirit of public service. It also needs effective controls to be applied to private banking
as well as to international flows of capital. Not least, it requires new methods of meeting the financial
requirements of households, as well as of small and medium enterprises. There is an urgent need for
communal and associational ways to provide housing, education, health and other basic goods and services
for working people, breaking the hold of finance on everyday life.
Ultimately, financialisation will not be reversed without an ambitious programme to re-establish
the superiority of the social over the private, and the collective over the individual in contemporary
society. Reversing financialisation is about reining in the rampant capitalism of our day.
Costas Lapavitsas's latest book is Profiting Without Producing: How Finance Exploits Us All
The Berlin Wall kept people in - that was its primary purpose.
Few people know what the Berlin Wall was. It was a wall around West Berlin, which was not a
part of West Germany but an occupied territory within the GDR. An American president called himself
a Berliner, which means a Berliner Pfannkuchen, i.e. a doughnut (technically, not by shape and
content.)
But whatever. The good people of the UK nowadays seem to wish there was a Rumanian Wall and
a Bulgarian Wall to keep people in. I gather quite a few in the former West Germany would like
a wall to keep the Ossies in.
Why Reagan and Thatcher were allowed to gut functioning...societies so that a handful could
prosper remains the great mystery.
On the contrary. Reagan and Thatcher were convenient advocates of a growing conservative consensus.
The convergence of institutions must have begun before their tenure because neoliberalism became
the dominant consensus by the time of their leadership.
The debate should focus on why neoliberalism
was seen as the panacea to the relatively socialist post-War consensus. Neoliberalism is an ideology
which has not even begun to be deconstructed. Like religion, the myths (concerning deficits and
debt, for example) have been exposed here in CiF but not the global public -- and must be eventually.
Big Brother=Neoliberalism=The Market=The Party=Enforcement
Don't delude yourself. A capitalist "society" must have control over its citizens as intensive
as a socialist one - just look at GCHQ/NSA. That it is exercised through markets and advertising
instead of propaganda is neither here nor there.
Thatcher's and Reagan's vicious, vile strikebreaking and the support they got from the supposedly
free press and supposedly impartial judiciary in that is a good example.
"The right way to think about it is that the financial industry must be doing something incredibly
useful or it would not exist."
What a ridiculous thing to say. By the same reasoning both bubonic plague and child abusers are
both doing something incredibly useful, otherwise they would not exist.
Perhaps you could explain to me what exactly it is that these socialists are doing that is
so useful?
It is the essential difference between wealth and money that is constantly missed by Politicians
and Economists.
Classical economics generally sees things the way you do, and attempts to match up economics with
reality. Neoclassical economics on the other hand, which is the system we're currently using,
has little concern with reality. So the specific problem involves our economic system diverging
from reality.
Compounding factors involve the sociopathic nature of the individuals involved. For example,
we think nothing about starting a war (generating profit for our military machine), then rebuilding
the ravaged country (generating profit for our construction companies). In neoclassical economics
that's just damned good business (the banks and corporations taking profits, the taxpayer footing
the bill).
isnt it amazing that Marx predicted over 150 years ago that the greedy capitalists would
be their own gravediggers
I never read Marx, although it sounds like he knew a bit about human nature and simply took the
system to its logical conclusion.
I'm not anti-capitalism. I believe it was a useful development in human history, similar to
religion and feudalism. But now it's time to say goodbye and find a new way of doing things. There's
no point in flogging a dead horse, unless you're part of the 1%.
I haven't really given that aspect of it much thought. When I was growing up, we played Monopoly
or Risk or Cluedo, we went outside, we raced, played cowboys and indians and the rest.
There have always been alpha males and alpha females even, people who are very competitive,
workaholics, who are leaders, who must be in charge.
I think the difference in the last 30 years was Thatcherism and in very short order Reaganism.
Adam Curtis says that Thatcher and her campaign manager were ardent anti-communists, they saw
Britain in the grip of the unions as a kind of moral decay rotting the nation from the inside
out (the enemy within) and they were both obsessed with Churchill, so they embarked on a Methodist
'the devil makes work for idle hands' market philosophy aimed at encouraging people to be self-sufficient,
independent, have Victorian values, be as successful as possible and all that stuff.
I can well believe that, it's just that they stirred up the whole thing without ever thinking
through the terrible potential downsides. That's a major problem with politics, fanatical zealots
who claim to have the solution for all the problems a nation faces.
I think another thing is that capitalism then was still in its infancy of the turbo-on-steroids
stage. For that cancer to truly metastasize we needed the personal computer network revolution
that enabled globalisation, partly because then, it was possible for people to source more and
more and more income streams without the commensurate ability to truly monitor the quality of
the investments or to manage the human relations that actually motivate people to feel appreciated
and to do good work.
Fighting talk. I agree that financialisation is a parasitic activity that will bring the body
politic to its knees - and in the not too near future. This is capitalism that really doesn't
give f**k about the environment or anyone who is not earning these obscene bucks shuffling electronic
wizardry around to nobody's benefit but their own.
Maybe regulation per se is not the main answer,
but it sure as hell needs a politician to stand up and say what is said in this article.
Whose value system is overly competitive with the desire to win.. How can it be otherwise when
we, ourselves, have brainwashed the children since the 1980s. We have given them Gameboys, Xboxes
and the WoW where the emphasis is on winning. Play this for hours every day and the message becomes
ingrained -- WIN
The failure of the USSR owed much to its militarism but don't you see that a society like
that HAS to be heavily militarized because its very existence depends on having total control
over its citizens.
The USSR had to be heavily militarized because its very existence depended on being able to
defend itself against the aggressive USA and its little helpers, Nato-countries. It was surrounded
by US military bases. That is the same US that went and murdered millions in SE Asia to "fight
Communism".
Consider, for instance, the policies to confront the crisis. First, public funds were injected
into banks to boost capital. Second, public liquidity was made available to banks to sustain
their operations. Third, public interest rates were driven to zero to enable banks to make
secure profits by lending to their own customers at higher rates.
Yet it seems you still blame the private sector for accepting the favorable situation rather
than the state for causing it:
Ultimately, financialization will not be reversed without an ambitious program to re-establish
the superiority of the social over the private, and the collective over the individual in contemporary
society.
A shift towards the rights of the individual would see the state have less power to bail out
the banks. Your solution is to give the source of the problem yet more power. The banks couldn't bail
themselves out - they needed the state to take the funds from the citizens. Why do you find the
state so blameless as to suggest they need more influence?
Remind me, because maybe I missed something, but which bit of the post-war German economic
miracle had them seeking a bailout from the IMF?
I'll tell you. West Germany was allowed to default twice on massive post-war loans in 1946
and 1948 thereby requiring IMF loans to finance it's day-to-day running.
My current company needs debt to pay for the machinery and running costs to create products. These
are sold for profit and the debt repaid. Without the initial debt the products, the salaries,
the taxable income would not exist. Debt is banned in Islamic countries – it is not a coincidence
that from being streets behind 1000 years ago, the Western world is now considerably more developed
I think what sticks in the craw of socialists is that these financial corporations and people
working in finance would be out of work if it hadn't been for Government intervention and taxpayer
money. There is a real irony in having had to listen how great Thatcher was for breaking the unions,
smashing nationalized industries on the basis of free market principles only to have to bail out
the biggest advocates of the free market. Especially when the cause of the longest and deepest
recession in memory was caused by those financial corporations and people working in finance.
Do I envy these people? Not really, they are on the whole treated like sh1t and they are so
attached to their money that they are like mewling, whimpering children when faced with the threat
of losing their jobs.
Isn't it amazing that marx predicted over 150 years ago that the greedy capitalists would be their
own gravediggers as they continue to pauperize the workers to extract more profit , drive down
wages and replace jobs with machinery. Forgetting it is the workers who buy the commodities and
if they cannot buy , the system will collapse in on itself
Your problem is that that you may desire a non-aspirational society, but that's just not how people
are. The human spirit is aspirational and competitive - whether you think that's desirable or
not doesn't matter. Consequently, the type of society you want is only possible if that human
spirit can be quashed and contained.
The failure of the USSR owed much to its militarism but don't you see that a society like that
HAS to be heavily militarised because its very existence depends on having total control over
its citizens. Without guns and walls, people would have just refused to be cowed and would have
left.
In simple terms, human beings are imperfect individuals driven by passions, ambitions and desires
which result in bad things happening but more often good things. Whether we like the fact that
we are imperfect is immaterial - we are what we are and no enforced system which seeks to contain
our individuality will ever succeed in the long run.
As bullydoggy says - its land (and I would add debt too).
This
Nationwide graph shows price rising 2.7 times adjusted for inflation from q3 1983 – q3 2007.
This is 6.5 times in nominal terms.
Residential Land Prices - Looking at figures for South East England from the same period aug
1983-july 07, it increases further, 13 times nominally - and this was an area with the 3rd lowest
increase in nominal terms! (At the bottom of the page - 'download the full residential land value
data')
There is no reason that interest can't be paid from the existing stock of money. Play a game of
monopoly and you will see that it is possible. Your argument has a false composition within it.
The central bank is an arm of the government to all intents and purposes. To consider it as a
case of the private sector holding the government over a barrel is silly. The state is the one
with a monopoly over money.
It's fairly simple. Split Banking into ' High Street ' stuff [ as in the good old days ] and the
newer riskier stuff . You could even have a State Bank. If an investment company goes bust - let
them - no bail outs - no public money. is lost. Have people who know what they are doing in the
Treasury and FSA - This hasn't happened so far.
Have a sensible rate of higher tax , get them to spend it here and /or tax luxury goods at
higher rates. Rich people like to spend money - encourage it. Encourage philanthropy, endowments
to Universities etc.
Communism has not been tried anywhere, so you don't know whether it works or not. Neoliberalism
has now been tried quite enough for us to know that it does not
No what you call neoliberalism might have been tried but not true neoliberalism, that will
work brilliantly, all you need to do is give me the reigns of power and let me get on with it,
trust me...
Not convinced? about as convincing as your claim that communism has not been properly tried
so maybe we should give it a go?
' Tobin tax on financial transactions can be of help. '
Unless universally applied [ AND done properly ] this would be an extremely STUPID idea. Do
you think for one moment that Wall Street [ or even, say, Moscow ] would ever do this ? The following
points should be noted :-
1. Tried in Sweden - didn't work and abandoned
2. 70 % would come from the City - to disappear into the EU coffers never to be seen again
apart from extra lunch portions for Van Rumpy Pumpy and his unelected catamites
3. A perfectly respectable international business may need to transfer collateral [ security
] from one subsidiary to another every day [ to cope with different trading zones ]. This sort
of transaction happens hundreds of thousands of time a day in the City - twice a day at 0.1 %
over 250 trading days for a £ 1 million, say, is a huge amount of money.
So what will happen ? - the tax will either get handed on to the customer [ which may well
be a pensioner's or worker's Pension Fund ]
OR gets done in a more expensive way [ again , cost handed on to customer ]
OR Firm decamps elsewhere
IE - NO-ONE BENEFITS
The armchair anarchists and toy-town Trots may jump and down with glee but the City provides
a significant chunk of GDP - If you want to be Greece but without the sunshine or being bailed
out by the the Germans then so be it.
If I understand you correctly, I think you are suggesting that to pay interest more money
must be created as debt. I've seen this suggested quite often but I think it is a fallacy of
composition.
If you were to think about money as a fixed quantity of gold you could pose the same question,
how could interest be paid out on the gold in more gold? Quite easily, some of the gold just
gets called interest payments as it changes hands, and that's it. No new gold is required.
Under a gold standard interest is paid by the "natural" growth in the money supply resulting
from gold mining.
Under a fiat system the only way the intest could be paid would be if non-debt based money were
issued which would require monetary reform. Yes, that's right, under our system the govt cannot
issue money - it must borrow it from the central bank, which, in the case of the USA, is a group
of private banks.
The article is about a global issue, not only your backyard. The people of UK can consider
themselves lucky compared with billions of others. But what would you care.
Quite. But do you think any one of the "socialists" raging on about nasty neo-liberals and
capitalists have twigged that if a fairer system was applied that few in the UK would see any
increase in their standard of living?
Sure thing mate, it'd be my pleasure! Are you REALLY sure you want to take the risk though?
It would mean you suddenly accumulate a rather large debt...
Nope the debts yours. I just want the cash, and money is bad. Apparently.
Of course we could... financialise the debt. You could roll the debt up and and sell it to
people based on whether or not they think you'll pay it. Oh hang on... we've just killed the article
because that's bad too.
No. Its an exchange. Each side gets something. Lets take a simple example. I buy a cake at
a bakery. I get a cake, in exchange for money. The baker gets money for the cake. The baker (not
being a moron) knows how much the ingredients, energy, time and so on the cake has cost. Some
of that money goes to pay for these bits of the cake. The remainder is profit. The baker, in turn
pays the suppliers. They also know what it cost to get their supplies ready for the baker, and
add a little bit more for profit. So... show me the transfer, rather than the exchange.
Profit is income less spending. Somebody else's spending is your income.
Neither communism or crony capitalism work, so why not a free market system
Communism has not been tried anywhere, so you don't know whether it works or not. Neoliberalism
has now been tried quite enough for us to know that it does not. Free market inevitably leads
to neoliberalism, otherwise it is not free.
It is always amusing to watch the rantings of someone living in the safest, most prosperous,
more socially equal, society in the history of man ranting and raving for Communism or a Benevolent
Dictator, or something; anything but this.
Were it in my power I would cheerfully transport you to the 12th Century where you could
enjoy the benefits of living (shortly) free of Financialism.
Why not make it the 4th century and the collapse of the Western Roman Empire through excessive
debt servitude? Or indeed fast forward into the 21st century with the decline of Western capitalist
economies for the same reason and the undesirable triumph of Chinese Communist market capitalism
through its use of Abba Lerner's Functional Finance?
"I think Christ's attack on the money lenders (which may have been a big part of what cost him
his life) and the Islamic prohibition of usury falls into this category. Look what lending money
at interest has done to our society."
I agree, and it surely lies at the root of the whole financial mess. if we hadn't allowed interest,
the whole confection of finance divorced from enabling trade would not have arisen in the first
place.
Diverting from the topic a bit, I'm not so sure about your first paragraph. I'm always struck
by a thing the great traveller Freya Stark said:
"I think, with the possible exception of the act of love, water rights have caused more
trouble than anything else in human history"
But I am not qualified to discuss the role of Sin - though I'm very grateful for your introduction
of it to this threadlet, where it has born much fruit of useful points - so I'll have to leave
the ethics there, I think!
Tobin tax on financial transactions can be of help.
We tax the food for children but not speculators play with money. France and Germany can take
the lead to let the computers send a small sum on every transaction back to the people. That would
be one of the few good things from EU. Otherwise let poor people starve and let the speculators
play to death of our countries.
So how many people rely on food banks? Is it half of us? One in ten, one in a hundred, one
in a thousand?
The article is about a global issue, not only your backyard. The people of UK can consider
themselves lucky compared with billions of others. But what would you care.
1. Public banking - it has no ties to corporate/international banking. N. or S. Dakota's
"public bank" - begun about 90 years ago by a bunch of conservative farmers who despised the
rise of bankster power.
How is this a model? The Bank of North Dakota operates more like the Bank of England than a
retail bank, it doesn't offer retail services except for student loans.
2. Community-based markets - see the most famous one in Spain.
There are several one in all places, Ohio.
You may as well offer up the edinburgh bicycle cooperative as a model. Co-op exist all over
the work, but they are a rounding error in the global economy. There is a place for them, but
they are not going to take over from companies.
the capitalism which lets people pile up enough money to fund billion-dollar research programmes.
Such programmes are mostly funded by governments using tax money. Even in pharmaceutics the
fundamental innovations and inventions are largely done in universities.
Little to do with your capitalism. Well, except that the profits of your benevolent pharmaceutical
companies are exceptionally high.
To summarize, you imply that capitalism and 'the market' are exemplified by government bailouts
of massively overinflated banks, to allow them to continue benefiting from government created
arbitrages of securitized debt and artificial regulatory economies of scale.
You go on to suggest that people's choices of dependence on large financial corporations is
bad, but then imply that they would be better off if they were instead dependent on a single monopoly
corporation to which they have no choice in belonging.
This is the problem with almost all attacks on capitalism and free markets. They incorrectly
ascribe our present system to the same and fail to recognise the similarities between dysfunctional
private and public corporate entities.
Making up a term - financialisation - and using to describe all use of money and also certain
aspects of finance itself actual makes analysing problems harder. You are actually over generalising
which makes you prone to creating narrative fallacies.
Porky, the term 'financialisation' has wide currency in economics, and refers to a specific
set of transformations in the structure of accumulation. It is not used 'to describe all banking',
etc. The Oxford-trained economist Thomas Palley provides this succinct definition of it:
Financialization is a process whereby financial markets, financial institutions, and financial
elites gain greater influence over economic policy and economic outcomes.
Financialization transforms the functioning of economic systems at both the macro and micro
levels.
Its principal impacts are to (1) elevate the significance of the financial sector relative
to the real sector, (2) transfer income from the real sector to the financial sector, and (3)
increase income inequality and contribute to wage stagnation. Additionally, there are reasons
to believe that financialization may put the economy at risk of debt deflation and prolonged recession.
Financialization operates through three different conduits: changes in the structure and
operation of financial markets, changes in the behavior of nonfinancial corporations, and changes
in economic policy.
Countering financialization calls for a multifaceted agenda that (1) restores policy control
over financial markets, (2) challenges the neoliberal economic policy paradigm encouraged by financialization,
(3) makes corporations responsive to interests of stakeholders other than just financial markets,
and (4) reforms the political process so as to diminish the influence of corporations and wealthy
elites.
They used interest rates to control inflation, come what may, which is precisely what Maggie
instigated after any ideas of cooperation had been rejected by the unions, during Callaghan's
time in office.
Thatcher used interest rates to create unemployment, not control inflation.
Sir Alan Budd (a top Treasury civil servant and Thatcher adviser, a strong supporter of monetarism,
who became Provost of The Queen's College, Oxford) let this cat out of the bag:
"The Thatcher government never believed for a moment that [monetarism] was the correct way
to bring down inflation. They did however see that this would be a very good way to raise unemployment.
And raising unemployment was an extremely desirable way of reducing the strength of the working classes.
[...] What was engineered – in Marxist terms – was a crisis of capitalism which re- created the reserve
army of labour, and has allowed the capitalists to make high profits ever since."
Quoted in Nick Cohen, "Gambling with our future", New Statesman, 13 January 2003, page 13.
The way I see it is you have the elite class, made of leaders, executives, industrialists, experts,
then you have the common hordes.
Common people are like a horse, the elite are like the rider, the horse doesn't mind the rider,
the rider is firm with the reigns and keeps the horse controlled, but then if the rider starts
to pull too firmly on the reins, the bridle causes discomfort, even pain, to the horse, with the
crop whipping and the spurs digging in, you push the horse too far and it will throw you.
The rider will inevitably, albeit gingerly, get back in the saddle, a little wiser. I have
no problem with this setup, but I know the rider has a short memory, and it is a case of taking
care of all your horses, not just the one you ride, because nags are always trouble and they are
worth a lot more when well taken care of.
This is a bad analogy, I know, but it is basically true; a phenomenal amount of problems in
communities and the world are due to inadequacies, unfortunately the symptoms of these inadequacies
are also big business and the economy would be disturbed by solving them, so we see "austerity"
preserving what we should be curing.
Make Bank executives personally responsible for the liabilities of the banks they are directors
of. Just like entrepreneurs are often personally responsible for their companies debts.
I am not sure I would use the description of 'Financialisation'. I would describe it more as the
difference between wealth and money. Money is a means of exchange. It is not wealth. In London
it is possible to buy a one bedroomed flat for over one million pounds. In some parts of the country
a similar flat could be bought for forty thousand pounds or less. The wealth is the property and
the money is the means of exchange. Just because my house goes up in value does not mean I have
more wealth. My house is unchanged. It is true that if I sold my house and realised the money
I might then be able buy a similar house for less money else where. Then with the surplus money
I could exchange that for more wealth in the form of goods elsewhere. However as a society no
wealth has been generated.
Only if money is used to create wealth in the form of goods and some services does wealth of society
increase.
It is the essential difference between wealth and money that is constantly missed by Politicians
and Economists.
Ideally it would be about drawing lines of decency between rights and responsibility; of course
everyone wants more rights than responsibility and will fight for that, wether they are just an
ordinary person or someone who actually has a high impact sphere of influence, and most people
will allow that person that right because they view thing in terms relative to their own context
and basically want the same thing.
It isn't about doing anything at gun point, it is about drawing clear lines of decency between
rights and responsibility, at which point it becomes a case of people knowing what they and others
can and cannot, should and should not, get away with. It isn't about punishment or forcing people
to do this or that, it is about natural repercussion that comes from inconsiderate behaviour,
it is about logically creating an environment that doesn't want to see you lynched.
Among interesting ideas that Mirkowski presented in this lecture are "privatization of science" -- when well paid
intellectual prostitutes produce the reuslt which are expected by their handlers. the other is his thought
on the difference between neoclassical economics and neoliberalism. Neoliberalism believes in state
intervention and this intervention should take the form of enforcing market on all spheres of human
society.
Another interesting idea that neoliberalism in many cases doe not need the success of its ideas.
The failure can also be exploited for enforcing "more market" on the society.
In other words market fundamentalism has all features of civil religion and like in Middle Ages
it is enforced from above. heretics are not burned at the stake but simply ostracized.
Notable quotes:
"... how it is that science came to be subordinate to economics and the very future of nature to be contingent upon the market. ..."
"... As a leading exponent of the Institutional school, he has published formal treatments of financial markets that update Minsky's 'financial instability hypothesis' for the world of computerised derivative trading. ..."
Life and Debt: Living through the Financialisation of the Biosphere
How can it be that the climate crisis, the biodiversity crisis and the deepest financial crisis
since 1930s have done so little to undermine the supremacy of orthodox economics?
The lecture will preview material from Mirowski's new book: Never Lt a Serious Crisis Go to Waste:
How Neoliberalism Survived the Financial Meltdown (Verso, 2013).
In this lecture, Professor Mirowski responds to the question of how it is that science came
to be subordinate to economics and the very future of nature to be contingent upon the market.
Charting the contradictions of the contemporary political landscape, he notes that science denialism,
markets for pollution permits and proposals for geo-engineering can all be understood as political
strategies designed to neutralize the impact of environmentalism, as they all originated in the network
of corporate-sponsored think-tanks that have made neoliberal accounts of society, politics and the
economy so prevalent that even the most profound crises are unable to shake their grip on the political
imagination.
For those of us who are still paying attention, the task of constructing an alternative politics
of science and markets is a vital one.
Philip Mirowski is Carl E. Koch Professor at the University of Notre Dame, Indiana. His most famous
book, More Heat Than Light: Economics as Social Physics (1989) established his reputation as a formidable
critic of the scientific status of neoclassical economics. His Machine Dreams: Economics becomes
a Cyborg Science (2002) presents a history of the Cold War consolidation of American economic orthodoxy
in the same intellectual milieu that produced systems theory, the digital computer, the atomic bomb,
the strategy of Mutually Assured Destruction, and the 'think tank'. The Road from Mont Pelerin: the
Making of the Neoliberal Thought Collective (with Dieter Plewhe, 2009), drawn from the archives of
the Mont Pelerin Society and the Chicago School, presents a scholarly history of neoliberalism: the
political movement initiated by Friedrich Hayek and Milton Friedman in the 1940s, which has since
become the world's dominant philosophy of government.
As a leading exponent of the Institutional school, he has published formal treatments of financial
markets that update Minsky's 'financial instability hypothesis' for the world of computerised derivative
trading.
This lecture is presented by the UTS Cosmopolitan Civil Societies Research Centre and the Australian
Working Group on Financialisation at the University of Sydney.
The idea the a scientist can be a gangster was probably first presented by
Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
in his famous Sherlock Holmes
detective stories. Neoliberalism just made this a reality. Mass production of "scientific gangsters"
is an immanent feature of neoliberalism.
Notable quotes:
"... By Lynn Parramore, Senior Research Analyst at the Institute for New Economic Thinking. Originally published at the Institute for New Economic Thinking website ..."
"... The Idea That Businesses Exist Solely to Enrich Shareholders Is Harmful Nonsense ..."
"... Neil Fligstein wrote a good book awhile back called The Transformation of Corporate Control that shows how most large manufacturing companies were initially run by engineers, then sales people, then finance people (as corporations came to be seen as bundles of assets as opposed to businesses). I think this transformation paralleled the rise of neoclassical economics. So, not so much "chicken-and-egg" as "class war." In Germany, at least until recently, I believe CEO's of manufacturing firms were still disproportionately engineers. ..."
"... a group of hedge fund activists can suck the value that you've created right out, driving your company down and making you worse off and the company financially fragile ..."
"... That means transforming business education, including the replacement of agency theory with innovation theory ..."
"... since gigantism is the norm, rather than family run farms in a mostly agrarian economy such failures are catastrophic. The linkage between these elephants tends to create systemic risk. Previously, failure was small and isolated. ..."
"... Welcome to our wonderful new world of infinite mutual vulnerability! Risk On! Nuclear weapons, Equifax, Googleamazon, NSApanopticon, FIRE, hacking, crapification The Soviet Union vanished as an entity, many starved, but the mopes there at least still knew how to raise up edible crops and live on "less" and maybe do better collective response to that sharp peak on the entropy curve. Wonder how things might play out exceptionally, here in the Empire? ..."
"... It should be noted that Michael Jensen of HBS, one of the originators of the `maximize shareholder value' of corporate governance, is on some short lists for this year's not-exactly-the-Nobel Prize in Economics. ..."
The Idea That Businesses Exist Solely to Enrich Shareholders Is Harmful Nonsense
In a new
INET paper
featured in the Financial Times , economist William Lazonick lays out a theory about how corporations
can work for everyone – not just a few executives and Wall Streeters. He challenges a set of controversial
ideas that became gospel in business schools and the mainstream media starting in the 1980s. He
sat down with INET's Lynn Parramore to discuss.
Lynn Parramore: Since the 1980s, business schools have touted "agency theory," a controversial
set of ideas meant to explain how corporations best operate. Proponents say that you run a business
with the goal of channeling money to shareholders instead of, say, creating great products or making
any efforts at socially responsible actions such as taking account of climate change. Many now take
this view as gospel, even though no less a business titan than Jack Welch, former CEO of GE, called
the notion that a company should be run to maximize shareholder value "the dumbest idea in the world."
Why did Welch say that?
William Lazonick: Welch made that statement in a 2009
interview
, just ahead of the
news that GE had lost its S&P Triple-A rating in the midst of the financial crisis. He explained
that, "shareholder value is a result, not a strategy" and that a company's "main constituencies are
your employees, your customers and your products." During his tenure as GE CEO from 1981 to 2001,
Welch had an obsession with increasing the company's stock price and hitting quarterly earnings-per-share
targets, but he also understood that revenues come when your company generates innovative products.
He knew that the employees' skills and efforts enable the company to develop those products and sell
them.
If a publicly-listed corporation succeeds in creating innovative goods or services, then shareholders
stand to gain from dividend payments if they hold shares or if they sell at a higher price. But where
does the company's value actually come from? It comes from employees who use their collective and
cumulative learning to satisfy customers with great products. It follows that these employees are
the ones who should be rewarded when the business is a success. We've become blinded to this simple,
obvious logic.
LP: What have these academic theorists missed about how companies really operate and perform?
How have their views impacted our economy and society?
WL: As I show in my new INET paper " Innovative Enterprise Solves the Agency Problem ," agency
theorists don't have a theory of innovative enterprise. That's strange, since they are talking about
how companies succeed.
They believe that to be efficient, business corporations should be run to "maximize shareholder
value." But as I have argued in
another recent INET paper , public shareholders at a company like GE are not investors
in the company's productive capabilities.
LP: Wait, as a stockholder I'm not an investor in the company's capabilities?
WL: When you buy shares of a stock, you are not creating value for the company -- you're just
a saver who buys shares outstanding on the stock market for the sake of a yield on your
financial portfolio. Public shareholders are value extractors , not value creators.
By touting public shareholders as a corporation's value creators, agency theorists lay the groundwork
for some very harmful activities. They legitimize "hedge fund activists," for example. These are
aggressive corporate predators who buy shares of a company on the stock market and then use the power
bestowed upon them by the ill-conceived U.S. proxy voting system, endorsed by the Securities and
Exchange Commission (SEC), to demand that the corporation inflate profits by cutting costs. That
often means mass layoffs and depressed incomes for anybody who remains. In an industry like
pharmaceuticals , the activists also press for extortionate product price increases. The higher
profits tend to boost stock prices for the activists and other shareholders if they sell their shares
on the market.
LP: So the hedge fund activists are extracting value from a corporation instead of creating it,
and yet they are the ones who get enriched.
WL: Right. Agency theory aids and abets this value extraction by advocating, in the name of "maximizing
shareholder value," massive distributions to shareholders in the form of dividends for holding shares
as well as stock buybacks that you hear about, which give manipulative boosts to stock prices. Activists
get rich when they sell the shares. The people who created the value -- the employees -- often get
poorer.
###p"downsize-and-distribute" -- something that corporations have been doing since the 1980s,
which has
resulted in extreme concentration of income among the richest households and the erosion of middle-class
employment opportunities.
LP: You've called stock buybacks -- what happens when a company buys back its own shares from
the marketplace, often to manipulate the stock price upwards -- the "legalized looting of the U.S.
business corporation." What's the problem with this practice?
WL: If you buy shares in Apple, for example, you can get a dividend for holding shares and, possibly,
a capital gain when you sell the shares. Since 2012, when Apple made its first dividend payment since
1996, the company has shelled out $57.4 billion as dividends, equivalent to over 22 percent of net
income. That's fine. But the company has also spent $157.9 billion on stock buybacks, equal to 62
percent of net income.
Yet the only time in its history that Apple ever raised funds on the public stock market was in
1980, when it
collected $97 million in its initial public offering. How can a corporation return capital to
parties that never supplied it with capital? It's a very misleading concept.
The vast majority of people who hold Apple's publicly-listed shares have simply bought outstanding
shares on the stock market. They have contributed nothing to Apple's value-creating capabilities.
That includes veteran corporate raider Carl Icahn, who raked in
$2 billion by holding $3.6 billion in Apple shares for about 32 months, while using his influence
to encourage Apple to do $80.3 billion in buybacks in 2014-2015, the largest repurchases ever. Over
this period, Apple, the most cash-rich company in history, increased its debt by $47.6 billion to
do buybacks so that it would not have to repatriate its offshore profits, sheltered from U.S. corporate
taxes.
There are many ways in which the company could have returned its profits to employees and taxpayers
-- the real value creators -- that are consistent with an innovative business model. Instead,
in doing massive buybacks, Apple's board (which includes former Vice President Al Gore) has endorsed
legalized looting. The SEC bears a lot of blame. It's supposed to protect investors and make sure
financial markets are free of manipulation. But back in 1982, the SEC bought into agency theory under
Reagan and came up with a rule that gives corporate executives a "safe harbor" against charges of
stock-price manipulation when they do billions of dollars of buybacks for the sole purpose of manipulating
their company's stock price.
LP: But don't shareholders deserve some of the profits as part owners of the corporation?
WL: Let's say you buy stock in General Motors. You are just buying a share that is outstanding
on the market. You are contributing nothing to the company. And you will only buy the shares because
the stock market is highly liquid, enabling you to easily sell some or all of the shares at any moment
that you so choose.
In contrast, people who work for General Motors supply skill and effort to generate the company's
innovative products. They are making productive contributions with expectations that, if
the innovative strategy is successful, they will share in the gains -- a bigger paycheck, employment
security, a promotion. In providing their labor services, these employees are the real value creators
whose economic futures are at risk.
LP: This is really different from what a lot of us have been taught to believe. An employee gets
a paycheck for showing up at work -- there's your reward. When we take a job, we probably don't expect
management to see us as risk-takers entitled to share in the profits unless we're pretty high up.
WL: If you work for a company, even if its innovative strategy is a big success, you run a big
risk because under the current regime of "maximizing shareholder value" a group of hedge fund activists
can suck the value that you've created right out, driving your company down and making you worse
off and the company financially fragile. And they are not the only predators you have to deal with.
Incentivized with huge amounts of stock-based pay, senior corporate executives will, and often do,
extract value from the company
for their own personal gain -- at your expense. As Professor Jang-Sup Shin and I argue in a forthcoming
book, senior executives often become value-extracting insiders. And they open the corporate coffers
to hedge fund activists, the value-extracting outsiders. Large institutional investors can use their
proxy votes to support corporate raids, acting as value-extracting enablers.
You put in your ideas, knowledge, time, and effort to make the company a huge success, and still
you may get laid off or find your paycheck shrinking. The losers are not only the mass of corporate
employees -- if you're a taxpayer, your money provides the business corporation with physical infrastructure,
like roads and bridges, and human knowledge, like scientific discoveries, that it needs to innovate
and profit. Senior corporate executives are constantly complaining that they need lower corporate
taxes in order to compete, when what they
really want is more cash to distribute to shareholders and boost stock prices. In that system,
they win but
the rest of us lose .
LP: Some academics say that hedge fund activism is great because it makes a company run better
and produce higher profits. Others say, "No, Wall Streeters shouldn't have more say than executives
who know better how to run the company." You say that both of these camps have got it wrong. How
so?
WL: A company has to be run by executive insiders, and in order to produce innovation these executives
have got to do three things:
First you need a resource-allocation strategy that, in the face of uncertainty, seeks to generate
high-quality, low-cost products. Second, you need to implement that strategy through training, retaining,
motivating, and rewarding employees, upon whom the development and utilization of the organization's
productive capabilities depend. Third, you have to mobilize and leverage the company's cash flow
to support the innovative strategy. But under the sway of the "maximizing shareholder value" idea,
many senior corporate executives have been unwilling, and often unable, to perform these value-creating
functions. Agency theorists have got it so backwards that they actually celebrate the virtues of
"
the value extracting CEO ." How strange is that?
Massive stock buybacks is where the incentives of corporate executives who extract value align
with the interests of hedge fund activists who also want to suck value from a corporation. When they
promote this kind of alliance, agency theorists have in effect served as academic agents of activist
aggression. Lacking a theory of the value-creating firm, or what I call a "theory of innovative enterprise,"
agency theorists cannot imagine what an executive who creates value actually does. They don't see
that it's crucial to align executives' interests with the value-creating investment requirements
of the organizations over which they exercise strategic control. This intellectual deficit is not
unique to agency theorists; it is inherent in their training in
neoclassical economics .
LP: So if shareholders and executives are too often just looting companies to enrich themselves
– "value extraction," as you put it – and not caring about long-term success, who is in a better
position to decide how to run them, where to allocate resources and so on?
WL: We need to redesign corporate-governance institutions to promote the interests of American
households as workers and taxpayers. Because of technological, market, or competitive uncertainties,
workers take the risk that the application of their skills and the expenditure of their efforts will
be in vain. In financing investments in infrastructure and knowledge, taxpayers make productive capabilities
available to business enterprises, but with no guaranteed return on those investments.
These stakeholders need to have representation on corporate boards of directors. Predators, including
self-serving corporate executives and greed-driven shareholder activists, should certainly not have
representation on corporate boards.
LP: Sounds like we've lost sight of what a business needs to do to be successful in the long run,
and it's costing everybody except a handful of senior executives, hedge fund managers, and Wall Street
bankers. How would your "innovation theory" help companies run better and make for a healthier economy
and society?
WL: Major corporations are key to the operation and performance of the economy. So we need a revolution
in corporate governance to get us back on track to stable and equitable economic growth. Besides
changing board representation, I would change the incentives for top executives so that they are
rewarded for allocating corporate resources to value creation. Senior executives should gain along
with the rest of the organization when the corporation is successful in generating competitive products
while sharing the gains with workers and taxpayers.
Innovation theory calls for changing the mindsets and skill sets of senior executives. That means
transforming business education, including the replacement of agency theory with innovation theory.
That also means changing the career paths through which corporate personnel can rise to positions
of strategic control, so that leaders who create value get rewarded and those who extract it are
disfavored. At the institutional level, it would be great to see the SEC, as the regulator of financial
markets, take a giant step in supporting value creation by banning stock buybacks whose purpose it
is to manipulate stock prices.
To get from here to there, we have to replace nonsense with common sense in our understanding
of how business enterprises operate and perform.
Owners come first!
That was the slogan of our former board chair. He didn't disclose to the employees that his compensation
was influenced mightily by how big the net income was. He did tell the employees that they were
well down the hierarchy, after Owners (capital O) and then vendors and then customers. His former
employees deserted in droves.
I'd say that maximizing long-term shareholder value is a great idea the problem is, as is so
often the case these days, short-term thinking.
Driving away a company's best employees makes that quarter's numbers look better, but destroys
long-term value. Same thing for so many other short-term, "I'll be gone, you'll be gone" strategies.
One step to fixing things – change the definition of long-term capital gains from the current
1 year to, say, 5 years. This "one simple trick" would fix everything from the carried interest
loophole to the abuses inherent in the current Wall Street gambling mentality.
We can talk about what is best in theory, but reality is just that, shareholders come first.
They control the board and the CEO and the CEO institutes the will of the shareholders down
into the business entities, determining the level of reinvestment in the business units and the
level of employee compensation. That will continue to be the case until the company goes bankrupt
at which point shareholders are entitled to nothing.
I agree with others that Jack Welch is saying what he is saying after the fact. Way too easy
to do.
>Welch had an obsession with increasing the company's stock price and hitting quarterly
earnings-per-share targets, but he also understood
Yeah so he talks a good game but when he had the reins – one of the most powerful men in the
world meekly (ok, that's a hilarious adjective when applied to Jack Welsh) followed the herd.
Or more accurately, found out where the herd was heading and got out in front of it. The true
sign of modern "leadership".
Or more accurately, found out where the herd was heading and got out in front of it.
The true sign of modern "leadership".
Reminds me of something i have read, supposedly a quite from some politician or other, going
to the tune of "i need to find out where the mob is going, so i can lead them there".
Welch's primary business strategy at GE was to exit every product market in which GE's market
share was not in the top two in the industry (selling them off or closing them down) and reallocate
resources to industries where GE was market dominant, often buying up the competition rather than
truly investing in innovation. A truly awful human being.
As I personally have always believed, Employees have more invested in their employers than
shareholders. Shareholders can sell quickly and have no loyalty. Employees do not enjoy such a
liquid "jobs market."
There also seems to be a turning point in companies, where they change the perception of the
customers form a group to be treasured, to a group who are to b exploited – change the relationship
so the customers become "marks."
I also believe there should be an almost automatic "break -up" provision for companies who
reach a certain market share.
Finally there should be one definition of income, and it should include Wages, Dividends, and
Capital Gains.
there should be an almost automatic "break -up" provision for companies who reach a certain
market share.
Yes, anti-trust enforcement would be nice. Hypothetical President Sanders might actually do
that. Real and hypothetical Presidents Bush, Obama, Romney, B. Clinton, H. Clinton, and Trump
have other priorities.
Sen Bernie Sanders sees right through the neoclassical fetters, blinders, and bullshit. He
recognizes how intellectually and economically stagnant and dangerous it is. He has the most powerful
conceptual, articulate grasp of economics that I've seen the past 40 years. He also, IIRC, had
MMTer Stephanie Kelton as an advisor, and had her advise the Senate Finance Committee. Also notable:
Sen Elizabeth Warren.
The other political operators that you mention are still in thrall to neoclassical assumptions.
They mistake 'takers' for 'makers' and are economically bamboozled. And it has worked out well
for all of them, on a personal basis, so it is not surprising that they don't see the problems.
Anyone actually trying to build an innovative business, OTOH, has to see through the bamboozlement
or else you're out of business pronto.
The class of humans that by inclination and opportunity become C-Suite and VC looters and "owners:"
did they precede the imprimatur of "economists" with their notions of price, value, and crossing
of curves, or did the "economists" do a Martin Luther, nail up a bunch of theses, and preach fire
and brimstone to turn the greedheads loose?
And was/is any other outcome for the species and the planet even possible?
Neil Fligstein wrote a good book awhile back called The Transformation of Corporate Control
that shows how most large manufacturing companies were initially run by engineers, then sales
people, then finance people (as corporations came to be seen as bundles of assets as opposed to
businesses). I think this transformation paralleled the rise of neoclassical economics. So, not
so much "chicken-and-egg" as "class war." In Germany, at least until recently, I believe CEO's
of manufacturing firms were still disproportionately engineers.
"most large manufacturing companies were initially run by engineers, then sales people,
then finance people"
The Lincoln Electric Company, which became famous for its "Incentive Management" program of
compensating employees, was a client of mine. Over three decades I saw it progress through precisely
those stages, and gradually lose every characteristic that had made the company unique.
This post was a genuine pleasure to read. Especially:
If you work for a company, even if its innovative strategy is a big success, you run a big
risk because under the current regime of "maximizing shareholder value" a group of hedge
fund activists can suck the value that you've created right out, driving your company down
and making you worse off and the company financially fragile .
And we've had a government by and for hedge fund managers for about the same amount of time
that we've had economic woes. One problem is that hedge funders like Romney, who actually don't
think about consumer product development, actually don't have to test and deploy products, bring
their bean-counter assumptions to business and make a hash of things. I mention Romney specifically,
because he presents himself to the world as a paragon of economic wisdom.
Romney has a prestigious business school background. Which makes me want to highlight this:
Innovation theory calls for changing the mindsets and skill sets of senior executives.
That means transforming business education, including the replacement of agency theory
with innovation theory .
Just a thought: "innovation theory," like MMT, is maybe just a tool set? "Innovation" includes
"autonomous combat devices," and CRSP-R, and nuclear weapons, and the F-35, and fracking, and
derivatives, and plastics, and charter schools, stuff and ideas that for some of us constitute
"value" are corporations as the category has grown to be, any more likely to "innovate" in the
areas of social improvements and possibilities, or stewardship of the planet, or close down the
toll stations and all the other rent collection scams and extortions they have "innovated" to
date? Or release their chokehold on "policy?"
Says the proponent: "Major corporations are key to the operation and performance of the economy.
So we need a revolution in corporate governance to get us back on track to stable and equitable
economic growth. Besides changing board representation, I would change the incentives for top
executives so they are rewarded for allocating corporate resources to value creation. Senior executives
should gain along with the rest of the organization when the corporation is successful in generating
competitive products while sharing the gains with workers and taxpayers." There seems to be so
much wrong and just more Biz-babble about this, one hardly knows where to start unpacking.
"Major corporations are key?" Really? Monsanto? GM? Bechtel? The Big Banks? And "back on track":
When has the political economy, writ small or large, ever been "on track to stability and equitable
growth," said "growth' itself seemingly one of the pathologies that's killing us? And who's going
to write the entries for the corporate senior executives' dance cards that will measure their
"success," in those feel-good categories?
But it's a good conversation piece, and maybe an opening into Something Better, however us
inherently mostly self-interested, self-pleasing omnivorous predators might define "better "
Badly run companies, naturally extinguish themselves. Unfortunately they take down their customers,
owners, vendors and employees in the process. But the government can step in and either save a
company that otherwise would die, or act as a crony corruption partner on behalf of a well connected
company. Same as it always was.
But since gigantism is the norm, rather than family run farms in a mostly agrarian economy
such failures are catastrophic. The linkage between these elephants tends to create systemic risk.
Previously, failure was small and isolated.
Welcome to our wonderful new world of infinite mutual vulnerability! Risk On! Nuclear weapons,
Equifax, Googleamazon, NSApanopticon, FIRE, hacking, crapification The Soviet Union vanished as
an entity, many starved, but the mopes there at least still knew how to raise up edible crops
and live on "less" and maybe do better collective response to that sharp peak on the entropy curve.
Wonder how things might play out exceptionally, here in the Empire?
It should be noted that Michael Jensen of HBS, one of the originators of the `maximize
shareholder value' of corporate governance, is
on some short lists
for this year's not-exactly-the-Nobel Prize in Economics.
"... Mirowski identifies three basic aspects of neoliberalism that the Left has failed to understand: the movement's intellectual history, the way it has transformed everyday life, and what constitutes opposition to it. Until we come to terms with them, Mirowski suggests, right-wing movements such as the Tea Party (a prominent player in the book) will continue to reign triumphant. ..."
"... Joining a long line of thinkers, most famously Karl Polanyi, Mirowski insists that a key error of the Left has been its failure to see that markets are always embedded in other social institutions. Neoliberals, by contrast, grasp this point with both hands -- and therefore seek to reshape all of the institutions of society, including and especially the state, to promote markets. Neoliberal ascendancy has meant not the retreat of the state so much as its remaking. ..."
"... he also recognizes that the neoliberals themselves have been canny about keeping the real nature of their project hidden through a variety of means. Neoliberal institutions tend to have what he calls a "Russian doll" structure, with the most central ones well hidden from public eyes. Mirowski coins an ironic expression, "the Neoliberal Thought Collective," for the innermost entities that formulate the movement's doctrine. The venerable Mont Pelerin Society is an NTC institution. Its ideas are frequently disseminated through venues which, formally at least, are unconnected to the center, such as academic economics departments. Thus, neoclassical economists spread the gospel of the free market while the grand project of remaking the state falls to others. ..."
"... At the same time as neoliberal commonsense trickles down from above, Mirowski argues that it also wells up from below, reinforced by our daily patterns of life. Social networking sites like Facebook encourage people to view themselves as perpetual cultural entrepreneurs, striving to offer a newer and better version of themselves to the world. Sites like LinkedIn prod their users to present themselves as a fungible basket of skills, adjustable to the needs of any employer, without any essential characteristics beyond a requisite subservience. Classical liberalism always assumes the coherent individual self as its basic unit. Neoliberalism, by contrast, sees people as little more than variable bundles of human capital, with no permanent interests or even attributes that cannot be remade through the market. For Mirowski, the proliferation of these forms of everyday neoliberalism constitute a "major reason the neoliberals have emerged from the crisis triumphant." ..."
"... Finally, Mirowski argues that the Left has too often been sucked in by neoliberalism's loyal opposition. Figures like Joseph Stiglitz or Paul Krugman, while critical of austerity and supportive of the welfare state, accept the fundamental neoclassical economic precepts at the heart of neoliberal policy. Mirowski argues that we must ditch this tradition in its entirety. Even attempts to render its assumptions more realistic -- as in the case of behavioral economics, for example, which takes account of the ways real people diverge from the hyperrationality of homo economicus -- provide little succor for those seeking to overturn the neoliberals. ..."
"... Mirowski's insistence on the centrality of the state to the neoliberal project helps correct the unfortunate tendency of many leftists over the past decade to assent to neoliberal nostrums about the obsolescence of the state. Indeed, Mirowski goes further than many other critics who have challenged the supposed retreat of the state under neoliberalism. ..."
"... Loïc Wacquant, for instance, has described the "centaur state" of neoliberalism, in which a humanist liberalism reigns for the upper classes, while the lower classes face the punitive state apparatus in all its bestiality. ..."
"... Mirowski shows us that the world of the rich under neoliberalism in no way corresponds to the laissez-faire of classical liberalism. The state does not so much leave the rich alone as actively work to reshape the world in their interests, helping to create markets for the derivatives and securities that made (and then destroyed) so many of the fortunes of the recent past. The neoliberal state is an eminently interventionist one, and those mistaking it for the austere nightwatchman of libertarian utopianism have little hope of combating it. ..."
"... Mirowski's concern to disabuse his readers of the notion that the wing of neoliberal doctrine disseminated by neoclassical economists could ever be reformed produces some of the best sections of the book. His portrait of an economics profession in haggard disarray in the aftermath of the crisis is both comic and tragic, as the amusement value of the buffoonery on display diminishes quickly when one realizes the prestige still accorded to these figures. Reading his comprehensive examination of the discipline's response to the crisis, one is reminded of Freud's famous broken kettle. The professional economists' account of their role in the crisis went something like (a) there was no bubble and (b) bubbles are impossible to predict but (c) we knew it was a bubble all along. ..."
"... Though Krugman and Stiglitz have attacked concepts like the efficient markets hypothesis (which holds that prices in a competitive financial market reflect all relevant economic information), Mirowski argues that their attempt to do so while retaining the basic theoretical architecture of neoclassicism has rendered them doubly ineffective. ..."
"... First, their adoption of the battery of assumptions that accompany most neoclassical theorizing -- about representative agents, treating information like any other commodity, and so on -- make it nearly impossible to conclusively rebut arguments like the efficient markets hypothesis. ..."
To understand how a body of thought became an era of capitalism requires more than intellectual
history.
"What is going to come after neoliberalism?" It was the question on many radicals' lips, present
writer included, after the financial crisis hit in 2008. Though few were so sanguine about our prospects
as to repeat the suicidal optimism of previous radical movements ("After Hitler, Our Turn!"), the
feeling of the day was that the era of unfettered marketization was coming to a close. A new period
of what was loosely referred to as Keynesianism would be the inevitable result of a crisis caused
by markets run amok.
Five years later, little has changed. What comes after neoliberalism? More neoliberalism, apparently.
The prospects for a revived Left capable of confronting it appear grim.
Enter Philip Mirowski's Never Let a Serious Crisis Go to Waste: How Neoliberalism Survived
the Financial Meltdown . Mirowski maintains that the true nature of neoliberalism has gone
unrecognized by its would-be critics, allowing the doctrine to flourish even in conditions, such
as a massive financial crisis, that would seem to be inimical to its survival. Leftists keep busy
tilting at the windmill of deregulation as the giants of neoliberalism go on pillaging unmolested.
Mirowski identifies three basic aspects of neoliberalism that the Left has failed to understand:
the movement's intellectual history, the way it has transformed everyday life, and what constitutes
opposition to it. Until we come to terms with them, Mirowski suggests, right-wing movements such
as the Tea Party (a prominent player in the book) will continue to reign triumphant.
The book begins with the war of ideas -- a conflict in which, Mirowski argues, the Left has been
far too generous in taking neoliberals at their word, or at least their best-publicized word. We
have, in effect, been suckered by kindly old Milton Friedman telling us how much better off we'd
all be if the government simply left us "free to choose." But neoliberals have at times been forthright
about their appreciation for the uses of state power. Markets, after all, do not simply create themselves.
Joining a long line of thinkers, most famously Karl Polanyi, Mirowski insists that a key error
of the Left has been its failure to see that markets are always embedded in other social institutions.
Neoliberals, by contrast, grasp this point with both hands -- and therefore seek to reshape all of
the institutions of society, including and especially the state, to promote markets. Neoliberal ascendancy
has meant not the retreat of the state so much as its remaking.
If Mirowski is often acidic about the Left's failure to understand this point, he also recognizes
that the neoliberals themselves have been canny about keeping the real nature of their project hidden
through a variety of means. Neoliberal institutions tend to have what he calls a "Russian doll" structure,
with the most central ones well hidden from public eyes. Mirowski coins an ironic expression, "the
Neoliberal Thought Collective," for the innermost entities that formulate the movement's doctrine.
The venerable Mont Pelerin Society is an NTC institution. Its ideas are frequently disseminated through
venues which, formally at least, are unconnected to the center, such as academic economics departments.
Thus, neoclassical economists spread the gospel of the free market while the grand project of remaking
the state falls to others.
At the same time as neoliberal commonsense trickles down from above, Mirowski argues that
it also wells up from below, reinforced by our daily patterns of life. Social networking sites like
Facebook encourage people to view themselves as perpetual cultural entrepreneurs, striving to offer
a newer and better version of themselves to the world. Sites like LinkedIn prod their users to present
themselves as a fungible basket of skills, adjustable to the needs of any employer, without any essential
characteristics beyond a requisite subservience. Classical liberalism always assumes the coherent
individual self as its basic unit. Neoliberalism, by contrast, sees people as little more than variable
bundles of human capital, with no permanent interests or even attributes that cannot be remade through
the market. For Mirowski, the proliferation of these forms of everyday neoliberalism constitute a
"major reason the neoliberals have emerged from the crisis triumphant."
Finally, Mirowski argues that the Left has too often been sucked in by neoliberalism's loyal
opposition. Figures like Joseph Stiglitz or Paul Krugman, while critical of austerity and supportive
of the welfare state, accept the fundamental neoclassical economic precepts at the heart of neoliberal
policy. Mirowski argues that we must ditch this tradition in its entirety. Even attempts to render
its assumptions more realistic -- as in the case of behavioral economics, for example, which takes
account of the ways real people diverge from the hyperrationality of homo economicus -- provide
little succor for those seeking to overturn the neoliberals.
For Mirowski, these three failures of the Left go a long way toward explaining how neoliberals
have largely escaped blame for a crisis they created. The Left persistently goes after phantoms like
deregulation or smaller government, which neoliberals easily parry by pointing out that the regulatory
apparatus has never been bigger. At the same time, we ignore the deep roots of neoliberal ideology
in everyday life, deceiving ourselves as to the scale of the task in front of us.
Whatever criticisms of Mirowski's analysis are in order, much of it is compelling, particularly
in regard to the intellectual history of the NTC. Mirowski's insistence on the centrality of
the state to the neoliberal project helps correct the unfortunate tendency of many leftists over
the past decade to assent to neoliberal nostrums about the obsolescence of the state. Indeed, Mirowski
goes further than many other critics who have challenged the supposed retreat of the state under
neoliberalism.
Loïc Wacquant, for instance, has described the "centaur state" of neoliberalism, in which
a humanist liberalism reigns for the upper classes, while the lower classes face the punitive state
apparatus in all its bestiality. But Mirowski shows us that the world of the rich under
neoliberalism in no way corresponds to the laissez-faire of classical liberalism. The state does
not so much leave the rich alone as actively work to reshape the world in their interests, helping
to create markets for the derivatives and securities that made (and then destroyed) so many of the
fortunes of the recent past. The neoliberal state is an eminently interventionist one, and those
mistaking it for the austere nightwatchman of libertarian utopianism have little hope of combating
it.
It's here that we begin to see the strategic genius of neoliberal infrastructure, with its teams
of college economics professors teaching the wondrous efficacy of supply and demand on the one hand,
and the think tanks and policy shops engaged in the relentless pursuit of state power on the other.
The Left too often sees inconsistency where in fact there is a division of labor.
Mirowski's concern to disabuse his readers of the notion that the wing of neoliberal doctrine
disseminated by neoclassical economists could ever be reformed produces some of the best sections
of the book. His portrait of an economics profession in haggard disarray in the aftermath of the
crisis is both comic and tragic, as the amusement value of the buffoonery on display diminishes quickly
when one realizes the prestige still accorded to these figures. Reading his comprehensive examination
of the discipline's response to the crisis, one is reminded of Freud's famous broken kettle. The
professional economists' account of their role in the crisis went something like (a) there was no
bubble and (b) bubbles are impossible to predict but (c) we knew it was a bubble all along.
Incoherence notwithstanding, however, little in the discipline has changed in the wake of the
crisis. Mirowski thinks that this is at least in part a result of the impotence of the loyal opposition
-- those economists such as Joseph Stiglitz or Paul Krugman who attempt to oppose the more viciously
neoliberal articulations of economic theory from within the camp of neoclassical economics. Though
Krugman and Stiglitz have attacked concepts like the efficient markets hypothesis (which holds that
prices in a competitive financial market reflect all relevant economic information), Mirowski argues
that their attempt to do so while retaining the basic theoretical architecture of neoclassicism has
rendered them doubly ineffective.
First, their adoption of the battery of assumptions that accompany most neoclassical theorizing
-- about representative agents, treating information like any other commodity, and so on -- make
it nearly impossible to conclusively rebut arguments like the efficient markets hypothesis.
Instead, they end up tinkering with it, introducing a nuance here or a qualification there. This
tinkering causes their arguments to be more or less ignored in neoclassical pedagogy, as economists
more favorably inclined toward hard neoliberal arguments can easily ignore such revisions and hold
that the basic thrust of the theory is still correct. Stiglitz's and Krugman's arguments, while receiving
circulation through the popular press, utterly fail to transform the discipline.
Mirowski also heaps scorn on the suggestion, sometimes made in leftist circles, that the problem
at the heart of neoclassical economics is its assumption of a hyperrational homo economicus
, relentlessly comparing equilibrium states and maximizing utility. Though such a revision may
be appealing to a certain radical romanticism, Mirowski shows that a good deal of work going on under
the label of behavioral economics has performed just this revision, and has come up with results
that don't differ substantively from those of the mainstream. The main problem with neoclassicism
isn't its theory of the human agent but rather its the theory of the market -- which is precisely
what behavioral economics isn't interested in contesting.
In all, Mirowski's indictment of the state of economic theory and its imbrication with the neoliberal
project is devastating. Unfortunately, he proves much less successful in explaining why
things have turned out as they have. The book ascribes tremendous power to the Neoliberal Thought
Collective, which somehow manages to do everything from controlling the economics profession to reshaping
the state to forging a new sense of the human self. The reader is left wondering how the NTC came
to acquire such power. This leads to the book's central flaw: a lack of any theory of the structure
of modern capitalism. Indeed, the NTC seems to operate in something of a vacuum, without ever confronting
other institutions or groups, such as the state or popular movements, with interests and agendas
of their own.
To be fair, Mirowski does offer an explanation for the failure of popular movements to challenge
neoliberalism, largely through his account of "everyday" neoliberalism. At its strongest, the book
identifies important strategic failures, such as Occupy's embrace of "a mimicry of media technologies
as opposed to concerted political mobilization." However, Mirowski extends the argument well beyond
a specific failure of the Occupy movement to propose a general thesis that developments like Facebook
and reality TV have transmitted neoliberal ideology to people who have never read Friedman and Hayek.
In claiming that this embodied or embedded ideology plays an important role in the failure of the
Left, he places far more explanatory weight on the concept of everyday neoliberalism than it is capable
of bearing.
At the simplest level, it's just not clear that everyday neoliberalism constitutes the kind of
block to political action that Mirowski thinks it does. No doubt, many people reading this article
right now simultaneously have another browser tab open to monster.com or LinkedIn, where they are
striving to present themselves as a fungible basket of skills to any employer that will have them.
In this economy, everyone has to hustle, and that means using all available means. That many of these
same readers have probably also done things like organize against foreclosures should give pause
to any blurring of the distinction between using various media technologies and embracing the ideology
Mirowski sees embodied in them.
Indeed, the ubiquity of participation in such technologies by people who support, oppose, or are
apathetic about neoliberalism points to a larger phenomenon on which Mirowski is silent: the labor
market. Put bluntly, it is difficult to imagine anyone engaging in the painfully strained self-advertisement
facilitated by LinkedIn in a labor market with, say, 2-percent unemployment. In such a market, in
which employers were competing for comparatively scarce workers, there would be very little need
for those workers to go through the self-abasing ritual of converting themselves into fungible baskets
of skills. In our current situation, by contrast, where secure and remunerative employment is comparatively
scarce, it is no surprise that people turn to whatever technologies are available to attempt to sell
themselves. As Joan Robinson put it, the only thing worse than being exploited by capitalism is not
being exploited by it.
In evaluating the role of everyday neoliberalism, it is also helpful to move, for the moment,
beyond the perspective of the United States, where the NTC has clearly had great success, and adopt
that of countries where resistance is significantly more developed, such as Venezuela or South Africa.
Especially in the former, popular movements have been notably successful in combating neoliberal
efforts to take over the state and reshape the economy, and have instead pushed the country in the
opposite direction. Is it really plausible that a main reason for this difference is that everyday
neoliberalism is more intense in the United States? I doubt it. For one thing, the strength of Venezuela's
radical movements, in comparison with the US, clearly antedates the developments (social media,
Here Comes Honey Boo Boo , and so on) that Mirowski discusses.
Moreover, it is just as plausible that the entrepreneurial culture he describes is even more extensive
in the slums of the global South, where neoliberal devastation has forced many poor households to
rely on at least one family member engaging in semi-legal arbitrage in goods salvaged from garbage
or made at home. Surely such activities provide a firmer foundation for commercial subjectivity than
having a 401(k). That resistance has grown in such circumstances suggests that looking to malignant
subjectivities to explain popular passivity is an analytic dead-end.
If everyday neoliberalism doesn't explain the comparative weakness of the US left, what does?
This is, of course, the key question, and I can do no more than gesture at an answer here. But I
would suggest that the specific histories of the institutions of the American left, from the Communist
Party to Students for a Democratic Society to labor unions, and the histories of the situations they
confronted, provide us with a more solid foundation for understanding our current weakness than the
hegemony of neoliberal culture does. Moreover, with a theory of capitalism that emphasizes the way
the structure of the system makes it both necessary and very difficult for most people to organize
to advance their interests, it becomes very easy to explain the persistence of a low level of popular
mobilization against neoliberalism in the context of a weakened left.
If Mirowski's account doesn't give us a good basis for explaining why popular resistance has been
so lacking in the US, it nonetheless suggests why he is so concerned with explaining the supposed
dominance of neoliberal ideology among the general population. From the beginning, he raises the
specter of right-wing resurgence, whether in the form of Scott Walker surviving the recall campaign
in Wisconsin, the Tea Party mania of 2010, or the success of right-wing parties in Europe. However,
much of this seems overstated, especially from a contemporary perspective. The Tea Party has, for
all intents and purposes, disappeared from the front lines of American politics, and the Republican
Party, while capable of enacting all kinds of sadistic policies on the state level, has remained
in a state of disarray on the national level since the 2006 congressional elections.
More fundamentally, the argument that the voting public embraces neoliberalism doesn't square
well with recent research by political scientists like Larry Bartels and Martin Gilens emphasizing
the profound disconnect between the policy preferences of the poor and what transpires in Washington.
What appears to be happening is less the general populace's incorporation into neoliberalism than
their exclusion from any institutions that would allow them to change it. Importantly, this alternative
explanation does not rely on the Left conceit that rebellion lurks perpetually just below the placid
social surface, ready to explode into radical insurgency at any moment. It simply contends that the
political passivity of neoliberalism's victims reflects a real diminution of their political options.
Mirowski's failure to address these larger institutional and structural dynamics vitiates much
of the explanatory power of his book. On a purely descriptive level, the sections on the intellectual
history of neoliberalism and the non-crisis of neoclassical economics illuminate many of the hidden
corners of neoliberal ideology. However, if Mirowski is right to suggest that we need to understand
neoliberalism better to be successful in fighting it -- and he surely is -- then much more is needed
to explain neoliberal success and Left failure.
To understand how a body of thought became an era of capitalism requires more than intellectual
history. It demands an account of how capitalism actually works in the period in question, and how
the ideas of a small group of intellectuals came to be the policy preferences of the rich. Mirowski
has given us an excellent foundation for understanding the doctrine, but it will remain for others
to explain its actual development.
"... I've always treated neoliberalism as a political project carried out by the corporate capitalist class as they felt intensely threatened both politically and economically towards the end of the 1960s into the 1970s. They desperately wanted to launch a political project that would curb the power of labor. ..."
"... In many respects the project was a counterrevolutionary project. It would nip in the bud what, at that time, were revolutionary movements in much of the developing world ..."
"... So in that situation there was, in effect, a global threat to the power of the corporate capitalist class and therefore the question was, What to do?. The ruling class wasn't omniscient but they recognized that there were a number of fronts on which they had to struggle: the ideological front, the political front, and above all they had to struggle to curb the power of labor by whatever means possible. Out of this there emerged a political project which I would call neoliberalism. ..."
"... The ideological front amounted to following the advice of a guy named Lewis Powell . He wrote a memo saying that things had gone too far, that capital needed a collective project. The memo helped mobilize the Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable. ..."
"... Ideas were also important to the ideological front. The judgment at that time was that universities were impossible to organize because the student movement was too strong and the faculty too liberal-minded, so they set up all of these think tanks like the Manhattan Institute, the Heritage Foundation, the Ohlin Foundation. These think tanks brought in the ideas of Freidrich Hayek and Milton Friedman and supply-side economics. ..."
"... This process took a long time. I think now we've reached a point where you don't need something like the Heritage Foundation anymore. Universities have pretty much been taken over by the neoliberal projects surrounding them. ..."
"... With respect to labor, the challenge was to make domestic labor competitive with global labor. One way was to open up immigration. In the 1960s, for example, Germans were importing Turkish labor, the French Maghrebian labor, the British colonial labor. But this created a great deal of dissatisfaction and unrest. ..."
"... Instead they chose the other way -- to take capital to where the low-wage labor forces were. But for globalization to work you had to reduce tariffs and empower finance capital, because finance capital is the most mobile form of capital. So finance capital and things like floating currencies became critical to curbing labor. ..."
"... At the same time, ideological projects to privatize and deregulate created unemployment. So, unemployment at home and offshoring taking the jobs abroad, and a third component: technological change , deindustrialization through automation and robotization. That was the strategy to squash labor. ..."
"... It was an ideological assault but also an economic assault. To me this is what neoliberalism was about: it was that political project ..."
"... I think they just intuitively said, We gotta crush labor, how do we do it? And they found that there was a legitimizing theory out there, which would support that. ..."
I've always treated neoliberalism as a political project carried out by the corporate
capitalist class as they felt intensely threatened both politically and economically towards
the end of the 1960s into the 1970s. They desperately wanted to launch a political project that
would curb the power of labor.
In many respects the project was a counterrevolutionary project. It would nip in the bud
what, at that time, were revolutionary movements in much of the developing world -- Mozambique,
Angola, China etc. -- but also a rising tide of communist
influences in countries like Italy and France and, to a lesser degree, the threat of a
revival of that in Spain.
Even in the United States, trade unions had produced a Democratic Congress that was quite
radical in its intent. In the early 1970s they, along with other social movements, forced a
slew of reforms and reformist initiatives which were anti-corporate: the
Environmental Protection Agency , the Occupational Safety and Health Administration,
consumer protections, and a whole set of things around empowering labor even more than it had
been empowered before.
So in that situation there was, in effect, a global threat to the power of the corporate
capitalist class and therefore the question was, What to do?. The ruling class wasn't omniscient
but they recognized that there were a number of fronts on which they had to struggle: the
ideological front, the political front, and above all they had to struggle to curb the power of
labor by whatever means possible. Out of this there emerged a political project which I would
call neoliberalism.
BSR Can you talk a
bit about the ideological and political fronts and the attacks on labor? DH The ideological front amounted to following the advice of a guy
named Lewis
Powell . He wrote a memo saying that things had gone too far, that capital needed a
collective project. The memo helped mobilize the Chamber of Commerce and the Business
Roundtable.
Ideas were also important to the ideological front. The judgment at that time was that
universities were impossible to organize because the student movement was too strong and the
faculty too liberal-minded, so they set up all of these think tanks like the Manhattan
Institute, the Heritage Foundation, the Ohlin Foundation. These think tanks brought in the
ideas of Freidrich Hayek and Milton Friedman and supply-side economics.
The idea was to have these think tanks do serious research and some of them did -- for
instance, the National Bureau of Economic
Research was a privately funded institution that did extremely good and thorough research.
This research would then be published independently and it would influence the press and bit by
bit it would surround and infiltrate the universities.
This process took a long time. I think now we've reached a point where you don't need
something like the Heritage Foundation anymore. Universities have pretty much been taken over
by the neoliberal projects surrounding them.
With respect to labor, the challenge was to make domestic labor competitive with global
labor. One way was to open up immigration. In the 1960s, for example, Germans were importing
Turkish labor, the French Maghrebian labor, the British colonial labor. But this created a
great deal of dissatisfaction and unrest.
Instead they chose the other way -- to take capital to where the low-wage labor forces
were. But for globalization to work you had to reduce tariffs and
empower finance capital, because finance capital is the most mobile form of capital. So
finance capital and things like floating currencies became critical to curbing labor.
At the same time, ideological projects to privatize and deregulate created unemployment.
So, unemployment at home and offshoring taking the jobs abroad, and a third component:
technological change ,
deindustrialization through automation and robotization. That was the strategy to squash
labor.
It was an ideological assault but also an economic assault. To me this is what neoliberalism
was about: it was that political project, and I think the bourgeoisie or the corporate
capitalist class put it into motion bit by bit.
I don't think they started out by reading Hayek or anything, I think they just intuitively
said, We gotta crush labor, how do we do it? And they found that there was a legitimizing
theory out there, which would support that.
"... Claim 1 is a restatement of the marginal productivity theory which is at the heart of neoclassical economics. In a general equilibrium model of a perfectly competitive economy with full employment, it can be deduced as a theorem. With constant returns to scale, ..."
"... The two propositions seem at odds. If people earn their marginal productivity (by #1), there should not be the externalities (in #2). The presence of the externalities suggests that incomes are not set according to marginal contributions to the economy. In turn, that calls into question the general equilibrium model. ..."
"... If, I repeat, If capital is invested, it is much more likely to be in automation. Which maintains or increases productivity while lowering labor costs. Demand is the only thing that can increase employment. But, that employment could be anywhere in the world. ..."
"... Alongside these two points I would add the (in econ-blogospheric terms, Sumnerian) point that Central Banks switched from targeting unemployment to targeting inflation; the result has been much longer periods of unemployment and underemployment, (arguably) artificially depressing wages, especially at the low end. (Hence wage stagnation). ..."
Restating the case against trickle down (updated in response to comments)
by John Quiggin on September 2, 2017 I've just given a
couple of talks focusing on inequality, one for the Global Change Institute at UQ, following a
presentation by Wayne Swan and the second at a conference organized by the TJ Ryan
Foundation (including great talks by Peter Saunders, Sally McManus, and others), where I
was responding to a paper by Jim Stanford from the Centre for Future Work. Because I was
speaking second in both cases, I didn't prepare a paper or slides, but tailored my talk to
complement the one before. That can be a high risk strategy, but in this case, I think it
worked very well.
It led me to a new, and I hope improved, statement of the case against 'trickle down'
theory. As always, the most important part of a refutation is a clear statement of the theory
you propose to refute, so that it can be shown where it falls down. After the talks I wrote
this up, and it's over the fold. Comments and constructive criticism much appreciated.
The case against trickle down, restated
The trickle down theory relies on the following claims*
In the absence of taxes and other government interventions, high market incomes reflect,
and elicit, high productivity, investment and effort.
More effort from highly productive workers and investors increases the productivity of
workers in general.
The trickle down argument then starts with the claim that reducing tax on high income
earners will lead them to work harder and invest more. Since they are (by claim 1) the most
productive members of the community, their efforts will (by claim 2) make everyone else more
productive, and will benefit consumers. So, reducing taxes on high income groups will make
everyone better off.
Claim 1 is a restatement of the marginal productivity theory which is at the heart of
neoclassical economics. In a general equilibrium model of a perfectly competitive economy with
full employment, it can be deduced as a theorem. With constant returns to scale,
Claim 2 is generally assumed to be true, although it's not usually spelt out. It is true
either if there are external economies of scale such as information externalities (the most
productive provide a model for others to copy) or complementarity in production (working with
highly productive colleagues and managers makes people in general more productive). With
economies of scale, Claim 1 needs to be interpreted carefully, The implication is not that
everyone receives a payment equal to their marginal product, but that market incomes are
(roughly) proportional to average and marginal productivity.
If Claim 2 doesn't hold then all the benefits of increased effort from highly productive
workers and investors is captured by the workers and investors themselves. This means that the
there is no 'trickle down' except through the tax system. The policy implication is that tax
rates for high income earners should be set at or near the top of the 'Laffer curve' where
revenue is maximized,
estimated by Piketty, Saez and Stantcheva at around 80 per cent.
The neoclassical model that gives rise to Claim 1 has never been a fully accurate
representation of the economy. But it is even less accurate now than in the past. The crucial
recent developments, likely to continue in the absence of radical policy change, are:
(i) wage stagnation, with the result that the link between productivity and incomes has been
broken for workers as a group
(ii) the increasing proportion of profits derived from monopoly power and financial sector
speculation
(iii) the rise of the information economy. Information is a public good, so imposing explicit
prices on information or bundling it with undesired advertising reduces its social value
(iv) the likely emergence of a patrimonial society in which high incomes are derived from
inherited wealth
These developments mean that cuts in the top rate of income tax will primarily reward
ownership of capital, unproductive activity, or luck in choosing ones parents, rather than
increasing productivity. They also undermine the second proposition underlying trickle down
theory. The pursuit of monopoly profits ('rent-seeking' in the jargon of free-market economics)
reduces rather than increases the productivity of the economy as a whole.
That's the theory. The empirical evidence, which was in dispute for a long time, is now
clear-cut, at least for the United States. Decades of pro-rich policies have, unsurprisingly,
made the rich much richer. Contrary to the predictions trickle down theory, the result has been
to reduce, rather than increase, the productivity and dynamism of the economy. The combination
of slower growth and increased inequality implies, as a matter of arithmetic, that the majority
of the population must be worse off.
*There are some other versions of trickle down that can be dismissed more easily. Most
notably, there's the idea that the spending of the rich will create employment. That's true,
but more employment would be generated if income were redistributed to the poor, who save less
of their income and consume more.
Claim 1 is a restatement of the marginal productivity theory which is at the heart of
neoclassical economics. In a general equilibrium model of a perfectly competitive economy
with full employment, it can be deduced as a theorem.
Honestly, this makes 'neoclassical economics' sound suspiciously like yet another perpetual
motion scheme.
We can also cite the exponential growth of share buybacks to boost stock prices and thus
enrich CEOs + corporate officials with stock options. This now seems to be the main corporate
use for profits, as opposed to investment. This trend would seem to short-circuit the whole
argument in claim 1, since if businesses use profits to buy back shares instead of investing
to increase productivity, claim 1 is entirely moot.
See "Profits Without Prosperity" by William Lazonick, Harvard Business Review, 2014.
"2. More effort from highly productive workers and investors increases the productivity of
workers in general."
What, people claim this? With a straight face? I work in a factory. I'd say the opposite is
true, the harder I work, the more everyone else slacks off!
Tinkle down theory: We must coddle the rich, because if we don't, then they will have a sad
and won't work hard. But the poor? Anything they get makes them work less hard.
But maybe: Tax the rich harder and they work harder, because they still want more, more,
more. And the poor? Anything they get empowers them, and further motivates them to escape
poverty.
Ian Maitland 09.02.17 at 2:48 am
"The empirical evidence [against trickle down theory], which was in dispute for a long time,
is now clear-cut, at least for the United States."
I wonder if the clause tacked on to that sentence -- "at least for the United States" --
isn't a dead giveway?
What about the rest of the world? True, globalization enriched corporations and created
Third World billionaires, but the most striking development of the two or three decades up to
2007 was the transformation of the situation and prospects of the world's poor. 2015
economics Nobelist Angus Deaton has said: "Life is better now than at almost any time in
history. More people are richer and fewer people live in dire poverty. Lives are longer and
parents no longer routinely watch a quarter of their children die."
Between 1970 and 2006,
the percentage of the world population in poverty has fallen by 80 percent from 27% to 5%.
The corresponding total number of poor has fallen from 403 million in 1970 to 152 million in
2006. At the same time, various measures of global inequality have declined substantially and
measures of global welfare increased by somewhere between 128% and 145% (Pinkovskiy.&
Sala-i-Martin 2009; see also Kinley, 2009: 14-15).
It is amazing how we take for granted what in retrospect will be seen as a golden age. How
quickly we have forgotten how, before globalization, much of the Third World had been written
off by experts. In the 1960s and 1970s, for example, Peter Singer placed Bangladesh in the
"hopeless" category. "We have no obligation to assist countries whose government make our aid
ineffective," Singer wrote. Paul Ehrlich wrote in The Population Bomb that, "India couldn't
possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980." He endorsed a system of "triage" that
would end food aid to "hopeless" countries such as India and Egypt. (India has gone from
being an economic basket case to a bread basket). Garrett Hardin used the lifeboat earth
metaphor to argue against helping the world's poorest. That help would lead to unsustainable
population growth that would capsize the lifeboat, so they had to be thrown overboard.
Globalization was mostly about the lifting of barriers to trade and investment and
liberalizing domestic economies. The era has been called "the age of Milton Friedman" by
Andrei Shleifer (2009) because it marked a stride toward a global free market. The miracle of
globalization was, accidentally or on purpose, the result of the unleashing of market forces.
Instead of planners, foreign aid, high tariffs and import substitution, it was greater market
openness that drove this transformation.
I don't know if this qualifies as "trickle down," but I think we should all give thanks
for what has been accomplished. Sadly, the Great Recession and the populist revolt have put
the brakes on the process.
@6 I've responded to this point before, as follows:
In the wake of the GFC, some advocates of economic liberalism have sought to shift the
ground of debate, arguing that, whatever the impact of financial globalisation on developed
countries, it has been hugely beneficial for India and China which, between them, account for
a third of the world's population.
There are all sorts of problems with this argument.
The relatively disappointing economic performance of China and India in the postwar decades
certainly provides strong grounds for criticising the economic policies of Mao Zedong and
Nehru. But even in the days when some observers saw these policies as providing an
appropriate development path for the countries that adopted them, no one seriously proposed
their adoption by developed countries. And as more attention has been focused on the
irrational aspects of these policies (such as the Great Leap Forward, in which people were
made to melt down their cooking pots to provide scrap for backyard smelters, which presumably
produced new cooking pots, or the dozens of licenses required to undertake the simplest
economic activity in India) it has become easier to understand why their removal or
relaxation
At the same time, neither of these rapidly-growing economies come anywhere near meeting the
standard description of a free-market economy. China still has a huge state-owned enterprise
sector, a tightly restricted financial system and a closely managed exchange rate. India
began its growth spurt before the main period of market liberalisation and also retains a
large state sector. In both countries, as earlier in Japan and South-East Asia, the state has
played a major role in promoting particular directions of development.
In summary, while the development success stories of China and India, and, before them of
Japan and the East Asian tigers, may have some useful lessons for countries struggling to
escape the poverty trap, they can tell us nothing about the relative merits of economic
liberalism and social democracy.
I am not an economist (is IANAE a thing?), but it always seemed to me that the two main
problems with trickle-down are the second to last paragraph – empirical disproof
– and the idea that, say, lowering taxes from 35% to 25% is some kind of huge incentive
that will make people who are affected by that change work harder. I do not find it a priori
plausible that somebody would ever say:
"Hey, if I work harder to earn another $10,000 I will only actually get to take $6,500
home. If that is the case, then I will not work harder and rather lose out on the $6,500,
even if I could really do with another $6,500. So there. But if you lower the tax rate so
that I get to keep $7,500, now we are talking! Those 10% are so much more relevant than the
other 65%." (Add zeroes at the end of those numbers as required.)
This is just not a reasoning that will ever make sense or occur to anybody in real life,
i.e. outside of a libertarian think tank, unless we are indeed talking a tax rate of 95%.
I do not find it a priori plausible that somebody would ever say:
"Hey, if I work harder to earn another $10,000 I will only actually get to take $6,500
home. If that is the case, then I will not work harder and rather lose out on the $6,500,
even if I could really do with another $6,500. So there. But if you lower the tax rate so
that I get to keep $7,500, now we are talking! Those 10% are so much more relevant than the
other 65%."
for what it's worth, I have thought things at least very similar to that several times,
and even acted on them, when, for example, I was already teaching several classes, and I was
asked if I'd like to teach one more. At that point, teaching one more would start to have
significant impact on my quality of life and ability to do writing. I'd be unhappy. But, I
could use the extra money. But each dollar cut off made a bit difference, considering that it
would actually be a pretty significant impact on my happiness at that point to teach another
class. Even if I could use the money, it had to be a fair amount of money before I'd take the
class on. Now, I don't mean to draw any sort of general conclusion from this, or to suggest
that it's a problem with the post, or to suggest that my situation suggests anything
important about tax policy or whatnot. But, that things like this happens seems pretty clear
to me, because they have happened to me.
Bill 09.02.17 at 9:47 am (
The two propositions seem at odds. If people earn their marginal productivity (by #1), there
should not be the externalities (in #2). The presence of the externalities suggests that
incomes are not set according to marginal contributions to the economy. In turn, that calls
into question the general equilibrium model.
"So, reducing taxes on high income groups will make everyone better off."
Even if 1 and 2 hold that "better off" conclusion still does not follow. Or at minimum
"better off" must be defined and qualified. How well off social animals like us are arguably
depend on both absolute and relative factors. Even if 1 and 2 raise the economic floor for
literally everyone they may also increase economic inequality, which can cause health
worsening (spirit level type argument) and worse equality of opportunity for the children of
those not earning most. Seeing one's child strive but not succeed because of a system of
economic inequality is arguably a "being worse off" factor.
"Trickle down" never works if you don't have Rich dudes who don't trickle down enough.
But it kind of works if you have a German Mittelstands-dude who has such a high social
conscious with an empathetic responsibility for his workers and his community that he pays
his workers excellent – insists on NOT firing -(or outsourcing) them and is in
economical crisis even willing to sacrifice his own well being for the well being of his
community and workers.
And this simple Kindergarten-wisdom (philosophy?) just doesn't apply (anymore?) in THE
homeland – even supposedly – and to a certain extend applied when a dude called
Ford made sure that his workers could afford the cars they build.
"Trickle down" never works if you don't have Rich dudes who don't trickle down enough.
It's better than that: even if trickle-down actually works the way it's supposed to the
way it's supposed to work it'll make problems of equality worse, not better,
long-term. See, you're giving the money to people with the expectation that they will use it to make
"profitable investments". But a profitable investment -- definitionally -- returns more money
to its maker than they spend: the result of "trickle down" is profitable investments made by
the currently-rich that make them even richer .
"Claim 2 is generally assumed to be true, although it's not usually spelt out. It is true
either if there are information externalities (the most productive provide a model for others
to copy) or complementarily in production (working with highly productive colleagues and
managers makes people in general more productive).
If Claim 2 doesn't hold then all the benefits of increased effort from highly productive
workers and investors is captured by the workers and investors themselves. This means that
the there is no 'trickle down' except through the tax system. The policy implication is that
tax rates for high income earners should be set at or near the top of the 'Laffer curve'
where revenue is maximized, estimated by Piketty, Saez and Stantcheva at around 80 per
cent."
Well, no, not really. Imagine, just imagine for a moment, that the harder work and greater
investment in pursuit of those higher incomes leads to something like that new leukemia drug
just approved. $500k a treatment today, that being cheaper than the other treatment, bone
marrow transplant. And in 10 or so years time the patent expires and it drops in price again.
No, this is not an argument that drug patents are super, rather, do we think that people are
incentivised to create new things by the prospects of gaining gazillions?
Are those 600 Americans likely to get this treatment each year made richer by its
existence?
We're made richer by being able to consume the greater production of those more highly
motivated high productivity people, aren't we?
As to the 80% peak, that suffers from the same problem that the very similar Diamond and
Saez one does. It assumes that we've already closed off all avenues of avoidance (D&S
using "allowances" to mean this). A residence based tax system, rather than a passport one,
is just such an allowance. For you can avoid by leaving the country and we've even got a name
for when this happened, the brain drain.
Further, the Staggers gets the NI situation wrong. D&S, certainly, talk about "taxes
on income", not "income taxes". They specifically include employer paid taxes on employment
income. Meaning adding employers' NI for the UK, not just the residual 2% employees'. At
which point, with allowances like residence based, D&S give us something like 54% as the
Peak. Or, given NI, somewhere around where we are with income tax alone right now, 45% or
so.
IANAE, and no longer reading as much economics as I used to, and this may belong to JQ's last
paragraph about trivial trickle-down theories, but I was inspired to visit the Marx-Kalecki
three-sector model. (Investment goods, wage goods, luxury goods/capitalist consumption.)
Which as usual, approaches the problem from the production side. "Trickle-down" in this case
depends on how capitalist spend their increased income, whether on investment or luxury
goods.
John Bellamy
Foster Monthly Review, 2013. One point here is to refute the "profit-squeeze" theory,
which still endures in some Marxian economics. This may be a "what next after refuting
trickle-down."
Only for those interested, I am not capable or enthused to defend the whole thing.
"For Kalecki, the power of labor to increase money wages!although present to a minor
extent in the normal business upswing!was not a significant economic threat to capital even
at full employment due primarily to the pricing power of firms. Hence, if the system
neglected consistently to promote full-employment through the stimulation of government
spending this was not to be attributed to economic reasons per se, but rather to the
political threat that permanent full employment would represent to the capitalist class."
I buy this completely, and the "pricing power of firms" is the main reason I oppose any
UBI job guarantee/ELR is much better. But state infrastructure is best. The taxes on capital
and capitalists must go to government spending ( socialized worker consumption ) and
investment (workers capital?) or it is counterproductive.
1) The Meidner Plan is back in the news, see Jacobin.
2) Increased taxes on capitalists for redistribution will upset capitalists. You want to
drive almost every economist nuts, start talking about state control of pricing . That
can done indirectly in ways like gov't housing or Medicare-for-all. The problems with
redistribution without socialized pricing are evident in the PPACA.
I may misunderstand, but the way you describe it it seems as if the concern to become
overworked would have been the main factor. I must say that if the question is whether we
want to lower top tax rates by 10% so that more people work themselves to death and get a
heart attack in their 40s I'd say thanks but no thanks.
Maybe even phrasing it as "working harder", as I did in my first comment, is the wrong way
of looking at trickle-down economics; the main argument seems to be that an investor or
company owner would rather let their money sit around useless and earn a mere 1% in interest
than invest in some 'job creating' activity that earns a return of 20% if they only get to
keep 13%. Phrased like that I think it would be hard to argue that any even half-rational
investor would ever reject the 13% ROI.
The problem might be that there just is no additional, unused opportunity for productive
activity that earns a return of 20% on investment if the masses have seen stagnant wages for
the last few decades. How would they afford to buy the new product that the investment would
be in, except in the sense of a zero sum game where another investment elsewhere becomes less
attractive to make up the difference? So if the investor's tax rate is lowered their choices
are still money sitting around uselessly or inflating a bubble.
steven t johnson 09.02.17 at 1:38 pm
A man digging a ditch with a shovel is working much harder than the dude with a backhoe. It
is not clear the guy working harder gets paid more. It's not clear the guy on the backhoe is
getting more than minimum wage. The amount of profit expected from the ditch seems to me to
depend on a lot more than how hard or productive either worker is. And the last I looked,
economics doesn't have an agreed upon theory on the dynamics of the general rate of profit.
All that stuff about marginal revenue productivity etc. seems to me to be unlikely to be
much more than ideology.
Last one, because I would like this to be clearer. I am inverting is a little bit from
"decreased taxes with increase growth" to "will increased taxes inhibit growth" using a
3-department model because:
Krugzilla: "much corporate taxation probably doesn't fall on returns to physical capital,
but rather on monopoly rents."
So question for Quiggin, leaving aside finance and rents
Are increased taxes on physical/fixed capital a good thing, growth and welfare
enhancing?
Are increased taxes on corporate returns, profits, good?
Should we end all depreciation allowances?
De we want to tax productive investment?
It is about the framing. Too often this is argued as about capitalist income and
capitalist consumption, as in Obama taxing private jets.
@13
"See, you're giving the money to people with the expectation that they will use it to make
"profitable investments".
Or to spend it for a really great watch? – as I happen to know -(and love) these
great Swiss Watchmakers who love to have the dough of Rich US-dudes redistributed towards
some real cool Craftsmen. -(wherever they are) – as I'm right now spending some time
with some really cool US carpenter -(in Iceland) – who loves it too – when he
get's flown to Iceland to do some "real cool" work here too.
And isn't that really "fascinating" that so many "Rich Dudes" -(of all nations) seem to
have this "thing" about (only) making "profitable investments" in order to return more money
to themselves – than they spend – in order to make them even richer BUT when it
comes to pay for a "Craftsman" who manufactures a nice well done cabinet -(or a well working
golden watch) a "Real Rich Dude" is even willing to throw in a first class airline ticket to
Geneve?
Bill @10 This is a good point. I think (1) needs to be modified to say that incomes are
proportional to marginal product. Then point (2) requires generalized external economies of
scale, which is the central idea in endogenous growth theory. I'll work on this.
Tim @14 The example you give is precisely covered by point 2.
Trickle-down is popular because many people are happy to tug their forelock if they can look
down on somebody else. This is more an American disease than a European one.
Phrased like that I think it would be hard to argue that any even half-rational investor
would ever reject the 13% ROI.
You think other people are like you. Other people think other other people are like them.
What this says about advocates of trickle-down economics is left as an exercise.
There is a problem which is referred to in New Zealand as the three B's. Once people own a
boat, a BMW, and a bach (holiday home), there's a tendancy to work less hard, maybe even
retire early and sit around doing nothing. Margaret Thatcher herself harshly criticised the
British equivalent of this. I share your skepticism that tax rates will help with this, but
it is a problem.
– or let's blame it all on the "fashionable American-Anglo culture of "Disruption"?
While in sane and reasonable economical environments the words "trickle down" just don't
exist BUT a culture of "Cooperation and Compromises or how do the Germans call it
"Mitbestimmung" – and there is no need for "trickle down" in Mitbestimmung as everybody
agrees that everybody should get her or his faire share of the "winnings".
"Capitalist income when directed by policy into productive actually job-creating
investment is of general benefit and should be taxed at a lower marginal rate."
is the big trickle-down, the primal, universal trickle-down that enables all the
others.
Not capitalist income vs labour income, not capital income share vs labour share, the
problem is capital vs labour, " good to increase capital cause jobs " is an assumption
so basic I don't even know how to quantify its adversary or opposition. Raw Number of
workers? Capital's opposition is made invisible by mainstream economics. And looking at
capitalist income or capitalist share of income or marginal productivity etc I think are
means to ensure that capital quantity keeps increasing ("cause we can tax the profits or
outflow") and capitalist political power (cause we don't want to lose the factory or sports
stadium cause jobs) keeps increasing.
No, Marx didn't go here, but then Marx believed that increasing capital quantity would
inevitably lead to proletarian revolution. We no longer have that excuse.
Tax not consumption, tax not income, tax capital directly so that we have less of it. The
govt can use the income to create socialized investment and production.
"In the absence of taxes and other government interventions,"
This is always the weasel out. There are always at least some taxes and government
interventions on which to blame the failure of markets to work their magic.
bob mcmanus 09.03.17 at 12:25 pm (
Last one again. I may not respond if anyone bothers, because this is at least orthogonal to
the OP.
How to tax capital? Simple, an example. Declare face value of equities at closing bell on
April 15 and tax it. 50%, 10%, 0.1%. Forget realized capital gains or transaction taxes, tax
face values. Yes indeed I understand what will happen to face values the day before and the
day after. I want to drive NASDAQ to zero, how about Krugman? Why not? (Also bonds and bank
assets, of course)
Yes, I know we do tax property at a local level and I spent some time looking for the tax
incidence between business wealth and housing values but I suspect it varies wildly along
with a maze of capital-protecting laws. I did notice that non- profits are taxed
differently if at all, in other words, still looking at property under the lens of income. So
the Clinton Foundation provides Chelsea economic security and political power in
perpetuity.
Capital is a power relation that shows up in de-facto segregated communities and unequal
education spending and outcomes and I would possibly tax houses as I would equities.
And of course all this can be incremental and marginal, we don't need to go fullbore
expropriation from the start.
But private property is a socialized power relation, and we want to discourage private
investment as much as possible. Otherwise, its still a trickle down economy.
I think it's important to take issue with comment 6, by Ian Maitland, which is a collection
of despicable lies. I know it makes no difference to Ian Maitland, who is a lying shill, but
it is important for people reading.
First Maitland says (contradictorily) that the proportion of the world population in
poverty has fallen to 5%, and that only 152 million people live in poverty. This is untrue.
The World Bank
estimates that 10.7% of the world's population, or about 790 million people, live in
poverty, and that the majority of poverty reduction has only occurred due to China and India
(i.e. no change in Africa). Maitland is using dubious numbers from a single shonky 2009
analysis published in that dumpster for shit papers, the NBER.
Second, Peter Singer never wrote the phrase Maitland accuses him of, with respect to the
Bangladesh famine. Singer's paper on the famine
can be found here and is a discussion of the urgent need to increase aid to "East
Bengal", as well as whether people in developed countries are justified in impoverishing
themselves in support of starving people in East Bengal (he concludes that they should not
impoverish themselves so much that their utility is lower than that of the Bangladeshis they
want to help). He discusses and dismisses the idea that people in rich countries should not
give aid to East Bengal because the real cause of its famine is population control, and aid
without population control won't work: He recommends aid now, and then further aid for
population control. He says people should be "working full time" to push both issues with
their government, and sneers at the UK government for valuing concorde more than starving
Bangladeshis.
The nearest quote to that which Maitland attributes to Singer comes from a later book,
Practical Ethics , and is part of a discussion about whether rich people should give
money to aid poor countries, and how to judge the best way to do this. Practical
Ethics was written in 1979, about the time that now-independent Bangladesh was becoming
a success story in health, population control and nutrition despite being much poorer than
India. In the sentence before the sentence closest to that which Maitland cites, Singer
states that we have an obligation to assist poor countries, but not to waste our money on
ways that don't help. This sentence has nothing to do with Bangladesh, and nothing to do with
abandoning poor countries to starve – in fact it concerns the best way to do precisely
the opposite.
In short, what Maitland wrote here is entirely false, deliberately misleading, and
malicious. I know most people on here are aware that Maitland is a lying liar, but just in
case anyone is new here and thinks that the failure to challenge his lies is a sign that
they're accepted by others as fact, here is the rebuttal: everything at comment 6 is a
vicious lie, and people like Maitland should be deeply ashamed of themselves for the
deliberate and mendacious lies they tell.
Layman 09.03.17 at 12:50 pm (
Garett Wilson: "There is a problem which is referred to in New Zealand as the three B's. Once
people own a boat, a BMW, and a bach (holiday home), there's a tendancy to work less hard,
maybe even retire early and sit around doing nothing. Margaret Thatcher herself harshly
criticised the British equivalent of this. I share your skepticism that tax rates will help
with this, but it is a problem."
Why is this a problem? Sure, it's an affront to Puritanism, but besides that?
= = = Once people own a boat, a BMW, and a bach (holiday home), there's a tendancy to
work less hard, maybe even retire early and sit around doing nothing. [ ] I share your
skepticism that tax rates will help with this, but it is a problem. = = =
Why? Why is it a problem, that is?
I realize that many global cultures based on English, Scots, and closely-related Northern
European cultures have adopted the neo-Puritan attitude that mankind deserves to be punished
and that 60-100 hours/week of grinding labor from age 16 to 80 is a necessary part of that
punishment. I'm less sure why the rest of us should accept that, particularly given the trend
toward automation of production of the necessities of life.
The devil is, as always, in the details. These arguments always ignore the inconvenient facts
of tax brackets (you mean the 90% tax rate for high earners doesn't apply to the first dollar
earned?) or deductions/exemptions. My rule of thumb is that top earners pay an effective tax
rate of around a third of the actual rate. George Romney was assessed a 70-90% rate in the
60s and paid something in the 30s: his son Willard would have been assessed a 39.6% rate and
paid something in the teens, probably not too far off what most of the CT commentariat pay.
Economics is theoretical politics just as politics is applied economics: it all made more
sense when it was called "political economy." Then you knew that economists were trying to
write policy and that politicians were trying to hide their schemes behind some academic fig
leaf.
And +1 to the "tinkle-down" variant I'll be sure to use that.
"Tim @14 The example you give is precisely covered by point 2."
Umm, how? If there's a consumer surplus then the workers and inventors and capitalists etc
simply aren't gaining all of he value. I don't we generally think that there is usually a
consumer surplus?
A rich guy on holiday at the beach notices a local fisherman sitting on the beach strumming a
guitar and sipping a beer at 1400 hours.
He inquires as to why he is not still at work.
Local; "I've caught enough fish for today!"
Rich Guy; "But if you work harder and longer, 6 or 7 days a week, 12 hours a day, you will be
able to buy another fishing boat, employ more fisherman, buy 2 more boats, then 4 boats."
Local:" What for?"
Rich Guy: " So you can retire and sit on the beach strumming your guitar and drinking beer!"
. . . the marginal productivity theory . . . is at the heart of neoclassical economics. In
a general equilibrium model of a perfectly competitive economy with full employment, it can
be deduced as a theorem. . . . The neoclassical model . . . has never been a fully accurate
representation of the economy.
Way to go out on a limb with classic understatement. Never a " fully accurate
representation"!
It seems to me we are back in Lesson 1 / Lesson 2 economics, wondering whether Lesson 2 is
going to be an explanation of how Lesson 1 is wrong and wrong in every conceivable respect
and implication, . . . or an explanation of how Lesson 1 is right, but not quite
right.
In some respects, you seem to want to turn the claims for trickle-down economics
topsy-turvy and show how pretty much the opposite of what the advocates of trickle-down
predicted and recommended has turned out to be true and ought to be recommended.
But, in other respects, you seem to want to defend neoclassical economics, as a merely
imperfect representation, which has, perhaps become less accurate as the further development
of the economic system has unfolded.
The rhetorical turn, "it is even less accurate now than in the past" leads to a narrative
in which epiphenomena are transformed into their own causal forces, perhaps to avoid the
contradiction in your analysis. Wage stagnation is an outcome that disproves the neoclassical
economics that recommended the policies that created wage stagnation, but some instinct holds
you back from saying that, so now wage stagnation is itself a reason to believe that
neoclassical economics is "less accurate" a representation. Did wage stagnation cause itself?
Did the recommendations or expectations of orthodox neoclassical economics have anything to
do with it?
I guess we do not need to answer and we should not wonder if the recommendations
themselves were innocent misunderstandings of the economy or a fraudulent apology for policy
that in fact targeted the consequent upward redistribution of income and wealth.
Is neoclassical economics simply a rhetoric engine for generating these frauds or did
neoclassical economists know what the powers-that-be were doing as well as how to sell what
the powers-that-be were doing? It is a classic conundrum in economics. The doctrines of
economics provide the styling for the outward apology and (importantly false) rationale (see
the discussion of the allegedly Machiavellian roles of James M Buchanan and Milton Friedman
in the other thread) for policy, but also the operating manual for policy. Somewhere, someone
has to have some idea of what they are doing, in pulling the levers and operating the
machinery of the economic system. Even granted that there might be important limits -- the
serious people have been known to run the economy off the edge of a cliff. It is just hard to
know even then -- when we are enveloped in a crisis of crisis capitalism -- if the
powers-that-be are doing it by mistake (1930) or on purpose (2008).
I cannot tell from the OP whether you think economic theory and the intuitions it
cultivates, for better and worse, should matter or not. Is neoclassical economics wrong? Or
misused?
I sort of question whether it's even worth engaging with trickle-down at this level, as
opposed to just saying "Well, it doesn't work." Are there still serious ecenomists who are
saying it does?
JQ@7
The dramatic increase in income and reduction in poverty in the Third World go far beyond
China and India. China is the most extreme, but it's pretty much everywhere, except
Africa.
Alex SL@8
People are always tempted to respond to economists' assertions by saying,"Well, *I*
wouldn't do that!" Unfortunately, introspection generally doesn't work, because the
assertions usually are not about what a typical person would do, but about what people on the
margin would do, i.e., people who are close to indifferent beween doing it and not doing
it.
steven t johnson@18
Two things you can be sure of (both in line with neoclassical theory): 1) The guy
operating the backhoe will be making more than the guy wielding the shovel 2) The guy
operating the backhoe will be making (a lot) more than the minimum wage.
1) The guy operating the backhoe will be making more than the guy wielding the shovel 2) The
guy operating the backhoe will be making (a lot) more than the minimum wage.
At the level of: a lot of guys wielding shovels will move less dirt than a lot of guys
driving back-hoes, and so be less productive and have less to share, this is true.
At the level of the work-crew digging ditches it's not. Three guys dig a ditch – one
marks the line, one drives the back-hoe, one shovels the odd bits that the back-hoe can't do.
Every so often they change places, because they all know all the jobs, and shovelling is hard
work. Or old Joe drives the back-how while young Dave does the shovel, because that's fairer
given Joe's got a bad back. Joe gets paid a bit more because he's senior. And Ramjit gets
paid most because he's in charge and is responsible for seeing that the ditch goes where it's
supposed to.
You can't devolve cooperative production down to individual productivity.
"The dramatic increase in income and reduction in poverty in the Third World go far beyond
China and India."
No one talks much about South Korea, but a generation ago they were very poor. Now they
are as rich as Japan, with income distribution like the Scandinavians. Of course this all
happened with a great deal of heavy handed government intervention, to the disapproval of
free market fundamentalists in the West, but it was still capitalism.
Gareth Wilson
Well, hypothetically he could be; but then again, hypothetically he could be hard at work
grinding the faces of the poor, and it's a good thing, and not a problem, that he isn't. What
he is actually doing is indulging himself with leisure, which at least contributes to his own
standard of living. If everybody works less, everybody has more leisure, which is a
contribution to everybody's standard of living.
"If Claim 2 doesn't hold then all the benefits of increased effort from highly productive
workers and investors is captured by the workers and investors themselves. "
This statement does not seem accurate.
My restatement would be:
If Claim 2 doesn't hold then all the benefits of increased effort from highly productive
workers and investors is captured by the workers, investors and their customers.
Encouraging a popular actor to take on another role, replacing someone less skilled, will
not in and of itself increase anyone's productivity. It will however benefit those that
consume the actors output.
Equally encouraging a highly paid person working to abandon their secure position and take
the risk of starting a firm or joining a risky start-up, may in the short run only benefit
those that consume the new product.
If, I repeat, If capital is invested, it is much more likely to be in automation. Which
maintains or increases productivity while lowering labor costs.
Demand is the only thing that can increase employment. But, that employment could be anywhere
in the world.
The old myth that acquisitiveness always and everywhere falls into the neat little channels
that happen to make it socially productive rather than the opposite.
Howard Frant @ 69 (re: backhoe)
Peter T @ 40 (re: workcrew)
Yes to both of you.
Like Howard, I do not see what is gained here by linking the intuitions of "trickle-down"
to marginal product theory of allocative efficiency. I have even used the "big shovel" theory
myself to explain the concept of marginal product and its application to wages.
But, marginal product theory is an analysis arrested at a very early stage, with no
uncertainty or strategic behavior, let alone such pre-requisites of practical production
organization as science, engineering, energy and management -- all of them touched on in Peter
T's sketch.
It seems particularly remarkable that JQ makes no mention of what I would take to be the
biggest betrayal of "trickle-down": that lowering the marginal rates of income tax on
super-high wage earners "incentivizes" (horrible word used here ironically) CEOs to direct
the affairs of large enterprises in ways that transfer income upward, including but not
limited to, control frauds.
If the economic system is organized primarily in hierarchical organization, then allowing
those in charge to do well by predation and looting is probably a formula for increasing
inequality. A wild and crazy idea I know, but there it is.
BW @47 "It seems particularly remarkable that JQ makes no mention of what I would take to be
the biggest betrayal of "trickle-down": that lowering the marginal rates of income tax on
super-high wage earners "incentivizes" (horrible word used here ironically) CEOs to direct
the affairs of large enterprises in ways that transfer income upward, including but not
limited to, control frauds. "
That was the central point of the post (incentives reward unproductive rent-seeking), so
either I've been very unclear or BW is reading uncharitably/with poor comprehension. If
anyone is still reading the thread, could they help me work out which it is.
That was the central point of the post (incentives reward unproductive rent-seeking), so
either I've been very unclear or BW is reading uncharitably/with poor comprehension. If
anyone is still reading the thread, could they help me work out which it is.
'I/you/they could have written that more clearly' is like a fortune-teller's cold reading,
the kind of thing that is always or nearly always true, but in this case it seems to me you
were clear enough (and as a cold reading obviously it applies to bruce wilder as much as it
does to you; and to me as well, of course). It seems as if there was some reason (although I
can't think of one) that it was important to bruce wilder to signal disagreement with you
instead of, as could so easily have been done, signalling agreement, making the same point
not as a correction of an omission on your part but as an amplification: 'One particularly
important/striking example of what you're discussing is the behaviour of CEOs of large
corporations transferring income upwards including, but not limited to, control frauds' (or
something like that).
"The smaller reminders can be just as telling. One former Apple contractor recalled
spending months testing a new version of Apple's operating system. To celebrate the release,
the Apple employees they'd worked closely with on the project were invited to a splashy party
in San Francisco, while the contractors had beers among themselves in a neighborhood
pub."
A large part of the Stormfront and Breitbart funding comes from Silicon Valley.
To tell the truth, I am not that interested in Tim Cook. I am not even interested in the
Apple janitors.
I am interested in those employees that benefit from ultimate rent-seeking company Apple
who went to the San Francisco party, and support either the libertarian right or the
neoliberal center (and probably TPP). Whatever economic theory we come up with has to reach
those folk and not threaten their livelihoods or it is politically as useless as
Georgism.
Has anyone done a critique of trickle-down from the perspective of supply chain optimization?
I'm a bit rusty on it, but a lot of the work that's been done on creating incentives for
supply chain partners shows why just giving people money in the hopes that they spend it
never pays back as well as just keeping the money (they reoptimize at a level that involves
them just pocketing a higher percentage of the money than they otherwise would have), and
that effective incentives demand the desired behavior before they pay out.
@nastywoman -- I just had to inform you that Ford DID NOT make sure his workers could
afford to buy the product they made. That was one of the most successful public relations
frauds ever propagated. What Ford did was to announce a "plan." Like Trump he was a little
short on the details. There were strings on the proposal. If the worker was thought to not
bathe often enough, he didn't get the $5. If a worker's hair was considered too long, he did
not get the $5. If the spies from the Service Department decided his lawn needed mowing, he
didn't get the $5. If his neighbors said he didn't go to church on Sunday, he didn't get the
$5. If the worker's English was thought to be deficient, he didn't get the $5. There were
many, many more strings. Ford, in fact, paid his workers rather poorly, and his Service
Department was very skilled at "talking with" anyone who was dissatisfied. Henry Ford (Old
Henry) was a nasty, priggish, anti-Semitic, racist [bannable], and the world is a better
place with him dead.
That was the central point of the post (incentives reward unproductive rent-seeking)
Presumably that is here:
These developments [presumably points (i) to (iv) listed just above] mean that cuts in
the top rate of income tax will primarily reward ownership of capital, unproductive activity,
or luck in choosing ones parents, rather than increasing productivity. They also undermine
the second proposition underlying trickle down theory. The pursuit of monopoly profits
('rent-seeking' in the jargon of free-market economics) reduces rather than increases the
productivity of the economy as a whole.
If I was trying to convince someone of the desirability of higher marginal tax rates on
high earners, I would certainly bring up some version of JQ's point (ii):
(ii) the increasing proportion of profits derived from monopoly power and financial
sector speculation
But, even though in most ways I couldn't be farther from Bruce Wilder in terms of
appreciation for the insights of neoclassical economic theory, alongside point (ii) I would
have made a point that is more like what I think BW is suggesting: the remuneration of
high(er) earners (seemingly increasingly, but perhaps this is really an old story) seems to
be far more subject to manipulation and less the result of pure market forces than the
remuneration of low(er) earners.
(Maybe BW would actually say that no one's remuneration has anything to do with any sort
of market, but that the remuneration of higher earners especially has nothing
to do with any sort of market).
(Also maybe this point is being made explicitly in the OP, and I just can't see it –
as JQ didn't include an explicit version of this point alongside points (i) to (iv), it makes
me wonder if he doesn't think there's been a significant change in this tendency).
Alongside these two points I would add the (in econ-blogospheric terms, Sumnerian) point
that Central Banks switched from targeting unemployment to targeting inflation; the result
has been much longer periods of unemployment and underemployment, (arguably) artificially
depressing wages, especially at the low end. (Hence wage stagnation).
As an addendum to my previous comment, is it obvious that lower marginal tax rates actually
encourages unproductive rent-seeking among corporate executives? At first glance I would
think it would just alter the form; labor income vs. stock options vs. perks and so on. At
second glance I wonder if it couldn't go the other way, maybe the income effect would
out-weigh the substitution effect. (I might not be thinking very clearly about this).
Anyway, after reading the following, I have never underestimated the intensity (insanity?)
of people, no matter how well off they are, about maintaining their income at what they feel
is the "necessary" level:
"... For the architect of the euro, taking macroeconomics away from elected politicians and forcing
deregulation were part of the plan ..."
"... The idea that the euro has "failed" is dangerously naive. The euro is doing exactly what its
progenitor – and the wealthy 1%-ers who adopted it – predicted and planned for it to do. ..."
Thanks to New Deal democrat, who made me curious about yesterday's "comment section in re Summers'
piece." Then thanks to Ron Waller for his comment which closed with: (Good read: "Robert Mundell,
evil genius of the euro".)
For the architect of the euro, taking macroeconomics away from elected politicians and forcing
deregulation were part of the plan
The idea that the euro has "failed" is dangerously naive. The euro is doing exactly what its
progenitor – and the wealthy 1%-ers who adopted it – predicted and planned for it to do.
That progenitor is former University of Chicago economist Robert Mundell. The architect of "supply-side
economics" is now a professor at Columbia University, but I knew him through his connection to my
Chicago professor, Milton Friedman, back before Mundell's research on currencies and exchange rates
had produced the blueprint for European monetary union and a common European currency.
Mundell, then, was more concerned with his bathroom arrangements. Professor Mundell, who has both
a Nobel Prize and an ancient villa in Tuscany, told me, incensed:
"They won't even let me have a toilet. They've got rules that tell me I can't have a toilet in
this room! Can you imagine?"
As it happens, I can't. But I don't have an Italian villa, so I can't imagine the frustrations
of bylaws governing commode placement.
But Mundell, a can-do Canadian-American, intended to do something about it: come up with a
weapon that would blow away government rules and labor regulations. (He really hated the union plumbers
who charged a bundle to move his throne.)
"It's very hard to fire workers in Europe," he complained. His answer: the euro.
The euro would really do its work when crises hit, Mundell explained. Removing a government's
control over currency would prevent nasty little elected officials from using Keynesian monetary
and fiscal juice to pull a nation out of recession.
"It puts monetary policy out of the reach of politicians," he said. "[And] without fiscal
policy, the only way nations can keep jobs is by the competitive reduction of rules on business."
He cited labor laws, environmental regulations and, of course, taxes. All would be flushed away
by the euro. Democracy would not be allowed to interfere with the marketplace – or the plumbing.
As another Nobelist, Paul Krugman, notes, the creation of the eurozone violated the basic economic
rule known as "optimum currency area". This was a rule devised by Bob Mundell.
That doesn't bother Mundell. For him, the euro wasn't about turning Europe into a powerful, unified
economic unit. It was about Reagan and Thatcher.
"Ronald Reagan would not have been elected president without Mundell's influence," once wrote
Jude Wanniski in the Wall Street Journal. The supply-side economics pioneered by Mundell became the
theoretical template for Reaganomics – or as George Bush the Elder called it, "voodoo economics":
the magical belief in free-market nostrums that also inspired the policies of Mrs Thatcher.
Mundell explained to me that, in fact, the euro is of a piece with Reaganomics:
"Monetary discipline forces fiscal discipline on the politicians as well."
And when crises arise, economically disarmed nations have little to do but wipe away government
regulations wholesale, privatize state industries en masse, slash taxes and send the European welfare
state down the drain.
Thus, we see that (unelected) Prime Minister Mario Monti is demanding labor law "reform" in Italy
to make it easier for employers like Mundell to fire those Tuscan plumbers. Mario Draghi, the (unelected)
head of the European Central Bank, is calling for "structural reforms" – a euphemism for worker-crushing
schemes. They cite the nebulous theory that this "internal devaluation" of each nation will make
them all more competitive.
Monti and Draghi cannot credibly explain how, if every country in the Continent cheapens its workforce,
any can gain a competitive advantage.
But they don't have to explain their policies; they just have to let the markets go to work on each
nation's bonds. Hence, currency union is class war by other means.
The crisis in Europe and the flames of Greece have produced the warming glow of what the supply-siders'
philosopher-king Joseph Schumpeter called "creative destruction". Schumpeter acolyte and free-market
apologist Thomas Friedman flew to Athens to visit the "impromptu shrine" of the burnt-out bank where
three people died after it was fire-bombed by anarchist protesters, and used the occasion to deliver
a homily on globalization and Greek "irresponsibility".
The flames, the mass unemployment, the fire-sale of national assets, would bring about what Friedman
called a "regeneration" of Greece and, ultimately, the entire eurozone. So that Mundell and those
others with villas can put their toilets wherever they damn well want to.
Far from failing, the euro, which was Mundell's baby, has succeeded probably beyond its progenitor's
wildest dreams.
[Needless to say, I am not a fan of Robert Mundell's.]
"It puts monetary policy out of the reach of politicians," he said. "[And] without fiscal policy,
the only way nations can keep jobs is by the competitive reduction of rules on business."
"..It's quite reasonable to suppose that, thanks to dependence on imported inputs and/or demand
for imported consumption goods, output can't rise without higher imports. And a country may well
run out of foreign exchange before it runs out of domestic savings, finance or productive capacity.
This is the idea behind multiple gap models in development economics, or balance of payments constrained
growth. It also seems like the direction orthodoxy is heading in the eurozone, where competitiveness
is bidding to replace inflation as the overriding concern of macro policy."
"I wonder how this fits with the national savings rate discussion of Miles Kimball and Brad Setser."
[Don't know and it sounds like way too much work for me to try to figure out. Savings rate
is not a problem for us and it is difficult to see how Greece could realistically increase theirs
sufficient to change anything without some other intervention being made first to decrease unemployment
and increase output.]
"... Two of my criticisms about Krugman/Friedman, etc is that is 'free markets' are supposed to substitute for policy in the government sphere. Except very telling except when we're talking about funding the security state. ..."
"... The other is that the real power of markets is that in a real free market (not a Potemkin one) decisions are made often at the point where needs, information, incentives, and economic power come together. But where the large scale decisions the governments have to make, markets fail. Policy though doesn't. But Neoliberals hate policy. ..."
"... Well, duh. "Policy" and "Capitalism" don't go together and never have. When you enact policy, you destroy the ability to make profit and you get the 1970's. ..."
"... Free market is a neoliberal myth, the cornerstone of neoliberalism as a secular religion. Somewhat similar to "Immaculate Conception" in Catholicism. ..."
"... In reality market almost by definition is controlled by government, who enforces the rules and punish for the transgressions. ..."
"... Also note interesting Orwellian "corruption of the language" trick neoliberals use: neoliberals talk about "free market, not "fair market". ..."
"... After 2008 few are buying this fairy tale about how markets can operate and can solve society problems independently of political power, and state's instruments of violence (the police and the military). This myths is essentially dead. ..."
"... Friedmanism is this sense a flavor of economic Lysenkoism. Note that Lysenko like Friedman was not a complete charlatan. Some of his ideas were pretty sound and withstood the test of time. But that does not make his less evil. ..."
Krugman's refusal to endorse fiscal stimulus unless the economy is at zero lower bound. That is
not only anti-Keynesian, it plays directly into the hands of the debt fear mongers. (Krugman is
also worried about the debt.)
[ Only correct to a degree, economic weakness is recognized. ]
Two of my criticisms about Krugman/Friedman, etc is that is 'free markets' are supposed to substitute
for policy in the government sphere. Except very telling except when we're talking about funding
the security state.
The other is that the real power of markets is that in a real free market (not a Potemkin one)
decisions are made often at the point where needs, information, incentives, and economic power
come together. But where the large scale decisions the governments have to make, markets fail. Policy
though doesn't. But Neoliberals hate policy.
Well, duh. "Policy" and "Capitalism" don't go together and never have. When you enact policy,
you destroy the ability to make profit and you get the 1970's.
likbez -> Gibbon1... , -1
Free market is a neoliberal myth, the cornerstone of neoliberalism as a secular religion.
Somewhat similar to "Immaculate Conception" in Catholicism.
In reality market almost by definition is controlled by government, who enforces the rules
and punish for the transgressions.
Also note interesting Orwellian "corruption of the language" trick neoliberals use: neoliberals
talk about "free market, not "fair market".
After 2008 few are buying this fairy tale about how markets can operate and can solve society
problems independently of political power, and state's instruments of violence (the police and
the military). This myths is essentially dead.
But like Adventists did not disappear when the Second Coming of Christ did not occurred in
predicted timeframe, neoliberals did not did not disappeared after 2008 either. And neither did
neoliberalism, it just entered into zombie, more bloodthirsty stage.
The fact that even the term
"neoliberalism" is prohibited in the US MSM also helped. It is king of stealth ideology, unlike
say, Marxists, neoliberals do not like to identify themselves as such. The behave more like members
of some secret society, free market masons.
Friedmanism is this sense a flavor of economic Lysenkoism. Note that Lysenko like Friedman
was not a complete charlatan. Some of his ideas were pretty sound and withstood the test of time.
But that does not make his less evil.
And for those who try to embellish this person, I would remind his role in 1973 Chilean coup
d'état ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Chilean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat
) and bringing Pinochet to power. His "Chicago boys" played a vital role in the events. This
man did has blood on his hands.
Of course, bringing a reign of terror to Chile was not why the CIA had sponsored him. The reason
he was there was to reverse the gains of the Allende social democracy and return control of the
country's economic and political assets to the oligarchy. Pinochet was convinced, through supporters
among the academics in the elite Chilean universities, to try a new series of economic policies,
called "neoliberal" by their founders, the economists of the University of Chicago, led by an
economist by the name of Milton Friedman, who three years later would go on to win a Nobel Prize
in Economics for what he was about to unleash upon Chile.
Friedman and his colleagues were referred to by the Chileans as "the Chicago Boys." The term
originally meant the economists from the University of Chicago, but as time went on, as their
policies began to disliquidate the middle class and poor, it took on a perjorative meaning. That
was because as the reforms were implemented, and began to take hold, the results were not what
Friedman and company had been predicting. But what were the reforms?
The reforms were what has come to be called "neoliberalism." To understand what "neoliberal"
economics is, one must first understand what "liberal" economics are, and so we'll digress briefly
from our look at Chile for a quick
Garrett 's book
The People's Pottage The Revolution Was-Ex America-Rise of Empire i ncludes a timeless quote on U.S. foreign policy. "You are imperialistic
all the same, whether you realize it or not... You are trying to make the kind of world you want. You are trying to impose the American
way of life on other people, whether they want it or not." The "Rise of Empire" opens with the sentence "We have crossed the boundary
between Republic and Empire." It contains a critical view of President Truman's usurpation of Congress' power to declare war. Some of
the "distinguishing marks" of an empire taken from history were "Domestic policy becomes subordinate to foreign policy" and " A system
of satellite nations". I think most of us are would be familiar with those two in modern context. His labeling of this policy as the
"Empire of the Bottomless Purse" was historically accurate.
The book was printed in 1953. What's amazing is how little some political ideology has changed since then. Take this quote; "And
the mere thought of 'America First', associated as that term is with 'isolationism', has become a liability so extreme that politicians
feel obliged to deny ever having entertained it." Think back to Ron Paul's 2008 campaign and how he was labeled an "isolationist" for
similar views of nationalism.
Notable quotes:
"... These are not sequential stages of Empire but occur in conjunction with one another and reinforce each other. That means that an attempt to reverse Empire in the direction of a Republic can begin with weakening any of the five characteristics in any order. ..."
"... Deconstructing these executive props, one by one, weakens the Empire. When all five components are deconstructing, the process presents a possible path to dissolving Empire itself. ..."
"... That was why Garrett does not deal with how to reverse the process of Empire. Once an empire is established, he argues, it becomes a "prisoner of history" in a trap of its own making. He writes, "A Republic may change its course, or reverse it, and that will be its own business. But the history of Empire is a world history and belongs to many people. A Republic is not obliged to act upon the world, either to change it or instruct it. Empire, on the other hand, must put forth its power." ..."
"... Collective security and fear are intimately connected concepts. It is no coincidence that the sixth component of Empire -- imprisonment -- comes directly after the two components of "a system of satellite nations" and, "a complex of vaunting and fear." ..."
"... An empire thinks that satellites are necessary for its collective security. Satellites think the empire is necessary for territorial and economic survival; but they are willing to defect if an empire with a better deal beckons. America knows this and scrambles to satisfy satellites that could become fickle. Garrett quotes Harry Truman, who created America's modern system of satellites. "We must make sure that our friends and allies overseas continue to get the help they need to make their full contribution to security and progress for the whole free world. This means not only military aid -- though that is vital -- it also means real programs of economic and technical assistance." ..."
"... Garrett also emphasizes how domestic pressure imprisons Empire. One of the most powerful domestic pressures is fear. An atmosphere of fear -- real or created -- drives public support of foreign policy and makes it more difficult for Empire to retreat from those policies. ..."
"... Empire has "'less control over its own fate than a republic,' he [Garrett] commented because it was a 'prisoner of history', ruled by fear. Fear of what? 'Fear of the barbarian.'" ..."
"... It does not matter whether the enemy is actually a barbarian. What matters is that citizens of Empire believe in the enemy's savagery and support a military posture toward him. Domestic fear drives the constant politics of satellite nations, protective treaties, police actions, and war. Foreign entanglements lead to increased global involvement and deeper commitments. The two reinforce each other. ..."
"... The fifth characteristic of Empire is not merely fear but also "vaunting." Vaunting means boasting about or praising something excessively -- for example, to laud and exaggerate America's role in the world. Fear provides the emotional impetus for conquest; vaunting provides the moral justification for acting upon the fear. The moral duty is variously phrased: leadership, a balance of power, peace, democracy, the preservation of civilization, humanitarianism. From this point, it is a small leap to conclude that the ends sanctify the means. Garrett observes that "there is soon a point from which there is no turning back .The argument for going on is well known. As Woodrow Wilson once asked, 'Shall we break the heart of the world?' So now many are saying, 'We cannot let the free world down'. Moral leadership of the world is not a role you step into and out of as you like." ..."
The Roman Empire never doubted that it was the defender of civilization. Its good intentions were peace, law and order. The Spanish
Empire added salvation. The British Empire added the noble myth of the white man's burden. We have added freedom and democracy.
-- Garet Garrett, Rise of Empire
The first step in creating Empire is to morally justify the invasion and occupation of another nation even if it poses no credible
or substantial threat. But if that's the entering strategy, what is the exit one?
One approach to answering is to explore how Empire has arisen through history and whether the process can be reversed. Another
is to conclude that no exit is possible; an Empire inevitably self-destructs under the increasing weight of what it is -- a nation
exercising ultimate authority over an array of satellite states. Empires are vulnerable to overreach, rebellion, war, domestic turmoil,
financial exhaustion, and competition for dominance.
In his monograph Rise of Empire, the libertarian journalist Garet Garrett (1878–1954), lays out a blueprint for how Empire could
possibly be reversed as well as the reason he believes reversal would not occur. Garrett was in a unique position to comment insightfully
on the American empire because he'd had a front-row seat to events that cemented its status: World War II and the Cold War. World
War II America already had a history of conquest and occupation, of course, but, during the mid to late 20th century, the nation
became a self-consciously and unapologetic empire with a self-granted mandate to spread its ideology around the world.
A path to reversing Empire
Garrett identifies the first five components of Empire:
The dominance of executive power: the White House reigns over Congress and the judiciary.
The subordination of domestic concerns to foreign policy: civil and economic liberties give way to military needs.
The rise of a military mentality: aggressive patriotism and obedience are exalted.
A system of satellite nations (vassals) in the name of collective security ;
A zeitgeist of both zealous patriotism and fear : bellicosity is mixed with and sustained by panic.
These are not sequential stages of Empire but occur in conjunction with one another and reinforce each other. That means that
an attempt to reverse Empire in the direction of a Republic can begin with weakening any of the five characteristics in any order.
Garrett did not directly address the strategy of undoing Empire, but his description of its creation can be used to good advantage.
The first step is to break down each component of Empire into more manageable chunks. For example, the executive branch accumulates
power in various ways. They include:
By delegation -- Congress transfers its constitutional powers to the president.
By reinterpretation of the Constitution by a sympathetic Supreme Court.
Through innovation by which the president assumes powers that are not constitutionally forbidden because the Framers never
considered them.
By administrative agencies that issue regulations with the force of law.
Through usurpation -- the president confronts Congress with a fait accompli that cannot easily be repudiated.Entanglement
in foreign affairs makes presidential power swell because, both by tradition and the Constitution, foreign affairs are his
authority.
Deconstructing these executive props, one by one, weakens the Empire. When all five components are deconstructing, the process
presents a possible path to dissolving Empire itself.
A sixth component of Empire
But in Rise of Empire, Garet Garrett offers a chilling assessment based on his sixth component of Empire. There is no path out.
A judgment that renders prevention all the more essential.
That was why Garrett does not deal with how to reverse the process of Empire. Once an empire is established, he argues, it
becomes a "prisoner of history" in a trap of its own making. He writes, "A Republic may change its course, or reverse it, and that
will be its own business. But the history of Empire is a world history and belongs to many people. A Republic is not obliged to act
upon the world, either to change it or instruct it. Empire, on the other hand, must put forth its power."
In his book For A New Liberty, Murray Rothbard expands on Garrett's point: "[The] United States, like previous empires, feel[s]
itself to be 'a prisoner of history.' For beyond fear lies 'collective security,' and the playing of the supposedly destined American
role upon the world stage."
Collective security and fear are intimately connected concepts. It is no coincidence that the sixth component of Empire --
imprisonment -- comes directly after the two components of "a system of satellite nations" and, "a complex of vaunting and fear."
Satellite nations
"We speak of our own satellites as allies and friends or as freedom loving nations," Garrett wrote. "Nevertheless, satellite is
the right word. The meaning of it is the hired guard." Why hired? Although men of Empire speak of losing China [or] Europe [how]
could we lose China or Europe, since they never belonged to us? What they mean is that we may lose a following of dependent people
who act as an outer guard."
An empire thinks that satellites are necessary for its collective security. Satellites think the empire is necessary for territorial
and economic survival; but they are willing to defect if an empire with a better deal beckons. America knows this and scrambles to
satisfy satellites that could become fickle. Garrett quotes Harry Truman, who created America's modern system of satellites. "We
must make sure that our friends and allies overseas continue to get the help they need to make their full contribution to security
and progress for the whole free world. This means not only military aid -- though that is vital -- it also means real programs of
economic and technical assistance."
In contrast to a Republic, Empire is both a master and a servant because foreign pressure cements it into the military and economic
support of satellite nations around the globe, all of which have their own agendas.
Garrett also emphasizes how domestic pressure imprisons Empire. One of the most powerful domestic pressures is fear. An atmosphere
of fear -- real or created -- drives public support of foreign policy and makes it more difficult for Empire to retreat from those
policies. In his introduction to Garrett's book Ex America, Bruce Ramsey addresses Garrett's point. Ramsey writes, Empire
has "'less control over its own fate than a republic,' he [Garrett] commented because it was a 'prisoner of history', ruled by fear.
Fear of what? 'Fear of the barbarian.'"
It does not matter whether the enemy is actually a barbarian. What matters is that citizens of Empire believe in the enemy's
savagery and support a military posture toward him. Domestic fear drives the constant politics of satellite nations, protective treaties,
police actions, and war. Foreign entanglements lead to increased global involvement and deeper commitments. The two reinforce each
other.
The fifth characteristic of Empire is not merely fear but also "vaunting." Vaunting means boasting about or praising something
excessively -- for example, to laud and exaggerate America's role in the world. Fear provides the emotional impetus for conquest;
vaunting provides the moral justification for acting upon the fear. The moral duty is variously phrased: leadership, a balance of
power, peace, democracy, the preservation of civilization, humanitarianism. From this point, it is a small leap to conclude that
the ends sanctify the means. Garrett observes that "there is soon a point from which there is no turning back .The argument for going
on is well known. As Woodrow Wilson once asked, 'Shall we break the heart of the world?' So now many are saying, 'We cannot let the
free world down'. Moral leadership of the world is not a role you step into and out of as you like."
Conclusion
In this manner, Garrett believed, Empire imprisons itself in the trap of a perpetual war for peace and stability, which are always
stated goals. Yet, as Garrett concluded, the reality is war and instability.
It is not clear whether he was correct that Empire could not be reversed. Whether or not he was, it is at its creation that Empire
is best opposed.
What Monbiot called 'stories" and "powerful political narratives" are actually ideologies. Neoliberal
ideology won in 70th and managed to destroy the weakened and discredited social democratic/Keynesean
model and Bolshevism on late 80th early 90th. After 2008 neoliberalism as ideology is as dead
as Stalinism was after 1945. You can even view Trump as kind of farcical
Nikita Khrushchev who while sticking to
neoliberalism "in general" at the same time denounced some key postulates of neoliberalism such
as neoliberal globalization with outsourcing and offshoring components and free movement of labor.
For Khrushchev that ended badly -- he was deposed and replaced by Brezhnev in 1964. The same might
happen to Trump.
You can get better idea about what Monbiot is talking about replacing the word "stories" with the
word "ideologies." An ideology is a coherent set of interconnected ideas or beliefs
shared by a large group of people (often political party or nation). It may be a connected to a particular
philosophy (Marxism in case of Socialism and Communism, Randism and neo-classical economics in
case of neoliberalism) . Communism, socialism, and neoliberalism are major political/economical ideologies.
Ideology prescribes how a country political system should be organized and how country economics
should be run.
Notable quotes:
"... The political history of the second half of the 20th century could be summarised as the conflict between its two great narratives: the stories told by Keynesian social democracy and by neoliberalism. ..."
"... When the social democracy story dominated, even the Conservatives and Republicans adopted key elements of the programme. When neoliberalism took its place, political parties everywhere, regardless of their colour, fell under its spell . ..."
Is it reasonable to hope for a better world? Study the cruelty and indifference
of governments, the disarray of opposition parties, the apparently inexorable slide towards limate
breakdown, the renewed threat of nuclear war, and the answer appears to be no. Our problems look
intractable, our leaders dangerous, while voters are cowed and baffled. Despair looks like the only
rational response. But over the past two years, I have been struck by four observations. What they
reveal is that political failure is, in essence, a failure of imagination. They suggest to me that
it is despair, not hope, that is irrational. I believe they light a path towards a better world.
The first observation is the least original. It is the realization that it is not strong leaders
or parties that dominate politics as much as powerful political narratives. The political history
of the second half of the 20th century could be summarised as the conflict between its two great
narratives: the stories told by Keynesian social democracy and by neoliberalism. First one and
then the other captured the minds of people across the political spectrum. When the social democracy
story dominated, even the Conservatives and Republicans adopted key elements of the programme. When
neoliberalism took its place, political parties everywhere, regardless of their colour,
fell under its spell . These stories overrode everything: personality, identity and party
history.
This should not surprise us. Stories are the means by which we navigate the world. They allow
us to interpret its complex and contradictory signals. We all possess a narrative instinct: an innate
disposition to listen for an account of who we are and where we stand.
... ... ...
The social democratic story explains that the world fell into disorder – characterised by the
Great Depression – because of the self-seeking behaviour of an unrestrained elite. The elite's capture
of both the world's wealth and the political system resulted in the impoverishment and insecurity
of working people. By uniting to defend their common interests, the world's people could throw down
the power of this elite, strip it of its ill-gotten gains and pool the resulting wealth for the good
of all. Order and security would be restored in the form of a protective, paternalistic state, investing
in public projects for the public good, generating the wealth that would guarantee a prosperous future
for everyone. The ordinary people of the land – the heroes of the story – would triumph over those
who had oppressed them.
The neoliberal story explains that the world fell into disorder as a result of the collectivising
tendencies of the overmighty state, exemplified by the monstrosities of Stalinism and nazism, but
evident in all forms of state planning and all attempts to engineer social outcomes. Collectivism
crushes freedom, individualism and opportunity. Heroic entrepreneurs, mobilising the redeeming power
of the market, would fight this enforced conformity, freeing society from the enslavement of the
state. Order would be restored in the form of free markets, delivering wealth and opportunity, guaranteeing
a prosperous future for everyone. The ordinary people of the land, released by the heroes of the
story (the freedom-seeking entrepreneurs) would triumph over those who had oppressed them.
... ... ...
But the best on offer from major political parties is a microwaved version of the remnants of
Keynesian social democracy. There are several problems with this approach. The first is that this
old story has lost most of its content and narrative force. What we now call Keynesianism has been
reduced to two thin chapters: lowering interest rates when economies are sluggish and using countercyclical
public spending (injecting public money into the economy when unemployment is high or recession threatens).
Other measures, such as raising taxes when an economy grows quickly, to dampen the boom-bust cycle;
the fixed exchange rate system; capital controls and a self-balancing global banking system (an
international clearing union ) – all of which
John Maynard Keynes
saw as essential complements to these policies – have been discarded and forgotten.
This is partly because the troubles that beset the Keynesian model in the 1970s have not disappeared.
While the
oil embargo in 1973 was the immediate trigger for the lethal combination of high inflation and
high unemployment ("
stagflation
") that Keynesian policies were almost powerless to counteract, problems with the system had been
mounting for years. Falling productivity and rising
cost-push
inflation (wages and prices pursuing each other upwards) were already beginning to erode support
for Keynesian economics. Most importantly, perhaps, the programme had buckled in response to the
political demands of capital.
Strong financial regulations and controls on the movement of money began to weaken in the 1950s,
as governments
started to liberalise
financial markets .
Richard Nixon 's
decision in 1971 to suspend the convertibility of dollars into gold destroyed the system of fixed
exchange rates on which much of the success of Keynes's policies depended. The capital controls used
to prevent financiers and speculators from sucking money out of balanced Keynesian economies collapsed.
We cannot hope that the strategies deployed by global finance in the 20th century will be unlearned.
But perhaps the biggest problem residual Keynesianism confronts is that, when it does work, it
collides headfirst with the environmental crisis. A programme that seeks to sustain employment through
constant economic growth, driven by consumer demand, seems destined to exacerbate our greatest predicament.
he western financial crisis of 2007-8 was the worst since 1931, yet its immediate
repercussions were surprisingly modest. The crisis challenged the foundation stones of the
long-dominant neoliberal ideology but it seemed to emerge largely unscathed. The banks were
bailed out; hardly any bankers on either side of the Atlantic were prosecuted for their crimes;
and the price of their behaviour was duly paid by the taxpayer. Subsequent economic policy,
especially in the Anglo-Saxon world, has relied overwhelmingly on monetary policy, especially
quantitative easing. It has failed. The western economy has stagnated and is now approaching
its lost decade, with no end in sight.
After almost nine years, we are finally beginning to reap the political whirlwind of the
financial crisis. But how did neoliberalism manage to survive virtually unscathed for so long?
Although it failed the test of the real world, bequeathing the worst economic disaster for
seven decades, politically and intellectually it remained the only show in town. Parties of the
right, centre and left had all bought into its philosophy, New Labour a classic in point. They knew no other
way of thinking or doing: it had become the common sense. It was, as Antonio Gramsci put it,
hegemonic. But that hegemony cannot and will not survive the test of the real world.
The first inkling of the wider political consequences was evident in the turn in public
opinion against the banks, bankers and business leaders. For decades, they could do no wrong:
they were feted as the role models of our age, the default troubleshooters of choice in
education, health and seemingly everything else. Now, though, their star was in steep descent,
along with that of the political class. The effect of the financial crisis was to undermine
faith and trust in the competence of the governing elites. It marked the beginnings of a wider
political crisis.
But the causes of this political crisis, glaringly evident on both sides of the Atlantic,
are much deeper than simply the financial crisis and the virtually stillborn recovery of the
last decade. They go to the heart of the neoliberal project that dates from the late 70s and
the political rise of Reagan and Thatcher, and embraced at its core the idea of a global free
market in goods, services and capital. The depression-era system of bank regulation was
dismantled, in the US in the 1990s and in Britain in 1986, thereby creating the conditions for
the 2008 crisis. Equality was scorned, the idea of trickle-down economics lauded, government
condemned as a fetter on the market and duly downsized, immigration encouraged, regulation cut
to a minimum, taxes reduced and a blind eye turned to corporate evasion.
It should be noted that, by historical standards, the neoliberal era has not had a
particularly good track record. The most dynamic period of postwar western growth was that
between the end of the war and the early 70s, the era of welfare capitalism and Keynesianism,
when the growth rate was double that of the neoliberal period from 1980 to the
present.
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Pinterest Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher, pictured in 1984, ushered in the era of
neoliberalism. Photograph: Bettmann Archive
But by far the most disastrous feature of the neoliberal period has been the huge growth in
inequality. Until very recently, this had been virtually ignored. With extraordinary speed,
however, it has emerged as one of, if not the most important political issue on both sides of
the Atlantic, most dramatically in the US. It is, bar none, the issue that is driving the
political discontent that is now engulfing the west. Given the statistical evidence, it is
puzzling, shocking even, that it has been disregarded for so long; the explanation can only lie
in the sheer extent of the hegemony of neoliberalism and its values.
But now reality has upset the doctrinal apple cart. In the period 1948-1972, every section
of the American population experienced very similar and sizable increases in their standard of
living; between 1972-2013, the bottom 10% experienced falling real income while the top 10% did
far better than everyone else. In the US, the median real income for full-time male workers is
now lower than it was four decades ago: the income of the bottom 90% of the population has
stagnated for over 30 years .
A not so dissimilar picture is true of the UK. And the problem has grown more serious since
the financial crisis. On average, between 65-70% of households
in 25 high-income economies experienced stagnant or falling real incomes between 2005 and
2014.
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Large sections of the population in both the US and the UK are now in revolt against their
lot
The reasons are not difficult to explain. The hyper-globalisation era has been
systematically stacked in favour of capital against labour: international trading agreements,
drawn up in great secrecy, with business on the inside and the unions and citizens excluded,
the Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP) and the
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) being but the latest examples; the
politico-legal attack on the unions; the encouragement of
large-scale immigration in both the US and Europe that helped to undermine the bargaining
power of the domestic workforce; and the failure to retrain displaced workers in any meaningful
way.
As Thomas
Piketty has shown, in the absence of countervailing pressures, capitalism naturally
gravitates towards increasing inequality. In the period between 1945 and the late 70s, Cold War
competition was arguably the biggest such constraint. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union,
there have been none. As the popular backlash grows increasingly irresistible, however, such a
winner-takes-all regime becomes politically unsustainable.
Large sections of the population in both the US and the UK are now in revolt against their
lot, as graphically illustrated by the support for Trump and Sanders in the US and the Brexit
vote in the UK. This popular revolt is often described, in a somewhat denigratory and
dismissive fashion, as populism. Or, as Francis Fukuyama writes in a recent excellent
essay in Foreign Affairs : "'Populism' is the label that political elites attach
to policies supported by ordinary citizens that they don't like." Populism is a movement
against the status quo. It represents the beginnings of something new, though it is generally
much clearer about what it is against than what it is for. It can be progressive or
reactionary, but more usually both.
Brexit is a classic example of such populism. It has overturned a fundamental cornerstone of
UK policy since the early 1970s. Though ostensibly about Europe, it was in fact about much
more: a cri de coeur from those who feel they have lost out and been left behind, whose living
standards have stagnated or worse since the 1980s, who feel dislocated by large-scale
immigration over which they have no control and who face an increasingly insecure and
casualised labour market. Their revolt has paralysed the governing elite, already claimed one
prime minister, and left the latest one fumbling around in the dark looking for divine
inspiration.
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Pinterest Brexit was the marker of a working-class revolt. Photograph: Mark Thomas/Alamy
The wave of populism marks the return of class as a central agency in politics, both in the
UK and the US. This is particularly remarkable in the US. For many decades, the idea of the
"working class" was marginal to American political discourse. Most Americans described
themselves as middle class, a reflection of the aspirational pulse at the heart of American
society. According to a Gallup poll, in 2000 only 33% of Americans called themselves working
class; by 2015 the figure was 48%, almost half the population.
Brexit, too, was primarily a working-class revolt. Hitherto, on both sides of the Atlantic,
the agency of class has been in retreat in the face of the emergence of a new range of
identities and issues from gender and race to sexual orientation and the environment. The
return of class, because of its sheer reach, has the potential, like no other issue, to
redefine the political landscape.
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The working class belongs to no one: its orientation, far from predetermined, is a
function of politics
The re-emergence of class should not be confused with the labour movement. They are not
synonymous: this is obvious in the US and increasingly the case in the UK. Indeed, over the
last half-century, there has been a growing separation between the two in Britain. The
re-emergence of the working class as a political voice in Britain, most notably in the Brexit
vote, can best be described as an inchoate expression of resentment and protest, with only a
very weak sense of belonging to the labour movement.
Indeed, Ukip has been as important – in the form of immigration and Europe – in
shaping its current attitudes as the Labour party. In the United States, both Trump and Sanders
have given expression to the working-class revolt, the latter almost as much as the former. The
working class belongs to no one: its orientation, far from predetermined, as the left liked to
think, is a function of politics.
The neoliberal era is being undermined from two directions. First, if its record of economic
growth has never been particularly strong, it is now dismal. Europe is barely larger than it
was on the eve of the financial crisis in 2007; the United States has done better but even its
growth has been anaemic. Economists such as Larry Summers believe that the prospect for the
future is most likely one of secular stagnation .
Worse, because the recovery has been so weak and fragile, there is a widespread belief that
another financial crisis may well beckon. In other words, the neoliberal era has delivered the
west back into the kind of crisis-ridden world that we last experienced in the 1930s. With this
background, it is hardly surprising that a majority in the west now believe their children will
be worse off than they were. Second, those who have lost out in the neoliberal era are no
longer prepared to acquiesce in their fate – they are increasingly in open revolt. We are
witnessing the end of the neoliberal era. It is not dead, but it is in its early death throes,
just as the social-democratic era was during the 1970s.
A sure sign of the declining influence of neoliberalism is the rising chorus of intellectual
voices raised against it. From the mid-70s through the 80s, the economic debate was
increasingly dominated by monetarists and free marketeers. But since the western financial
crisis, the centre of gravity of the intellectual debate has shifted profoundly. This is most
obvious in the United States, with economists such as Joseph Stiglitz, Paul Krugman, Dani
Rodrik and Jeffrey Sachs becoming increasingly influential. Thomas Piketty's Capital in the
Twenty-First Century has been a massive seller. His work and that of Tony
Atkinson and Angus Deaton have pushed the question of the inequality to the top of the
political agenda. In the UK, Ha-Joon Chang , for long isolated within
the economics profession, has gained a following far greater than those who think economics is
a branch of mathematics.
;'Virtually no one foresaw the triumph of Jeremy Corbyn', pictured
at rally in north London last week. Photograph: Daniel Leal-Olivas/AFP/Getty Images
Meanwhile, some of those who were previously strong advocates of a neoliberal approach, such
as Larry Summers and the Financial Times 's Martin Wolf, have become extremely
critical. The wind is in the sails of the critics of neoliberalism; the neoliberals and
monetarists are in retreat. In the UK, the media and political worlds are well behind the
curve. Few recognise that we are at the end of an era. Old attitudes and assumptions still
predominate, whether on the BBC's Today programme, in the rightwing press or the
parliamentary Labour party.
Following Ed Miliband's resignation as Labour leader, virtually no one foresaw the triumph
of Jeremy
Corbyn in the subsequent leadership election. The assumption had been more of the same, a
Blairite or a halfway house like Miliband, certainly not anyone like Corbyn. But the zeitgeist
had changed. The membership, especially the young who had joined the party on an unprecedented
scale, wanted a complete break with New Labour. One of the reasons why the left has failed to
emerge as the leader of the new mood of working-class disillusionment is that most social
democratic parties became, in varying degrees, disciples of neoliberalism and
uber-globalisation. The most extreme forms of this phenomenon were New Labour and the
Democrats, who in the late 90s and 00s became its advance guard, personified by Tony Blair and
Bill Clinton, triangulation and the third way.
But as David Marquand observed in a review for the New Statesman , what is the
point of a social democratic party if it doesn't represent the less fortunate, the
underprivileged and the losers? New Labour deserted those who needed them, who historically
they were supposed to represent. Is it surprising that large sections have now deserted the
party who deserted them? Blair, in his reincarnation as a money-obsessed consultant to a shady
bunch of presidents and dictators, is a fitting testament to the demise of New Labour.
The rival contenders – Burnham, Cooper and Kendall – represented continuity.
They were swept away by Corbyn, who won nearly 60% of the votes. New Labour was over, as dead
as Monty Python's parrot. Few grasped the meaning of what had happened. A Guardian
leader welcomed the surge in membership and then, lo and behold, urged support for Yvette
Cooper, the very antithesis of the reason for the enthusiasm. The PLP refused to accept the
result and ever since has tried with might and main to remove Corbyn.
Just as the Labour party took far too long to come to terms with the rise of Thatcherism and
the birth of a new era at the end of the 70s, now it could not grasp that the Thatcherite
paradigm, which they eventually came to embrace in the form of New Labour, had finally run its
course. Labour, like everyone else, is obliged to think anew. The membership in their antipathy
to New Labour turned to someone who had never accepted the latter, who was the polar opposite
in almost every respect of Blair, and embodying an authenticity and decency which Blair
patently did not.
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Labour may be in intensive care, but the condition of the Conservatives is not a great
deal better
Corbyn is not a product of the new times, he is a throwback to the late 70s and early 80s.
That is both his strength and also his weakness. He is uncontaminated by the New Labour legacy
because he has never accepted it. But nor, it would seem, does he understand the nature of the
new era. The danger is that he is possessed of feet of clay in what is a highly fluid and
unpredictable political environment, devoid of any certainties of almost any kind, in which
Labour finds itself dangerously divided and weakened.
Labour may be in intensive care, but the condition of the Conservatives is not a great deal
better. David Cameron was guilty of a huge and irresponsible miscalculation over Brexit. He was
forced to resign in the most ignominious of circumstances. The party is hopelessly divided. It
has no idea in which direction to move after Brexit. The Brexiters painted an optimistic
picture of turning away from the declining European market and embracing the expanding markets
of the world, albeit barely mentioning by name which countries it had in mind. It looks as if
the new prime minister may have an anachronistic hostility towards China and a willingness to
undo the good work of George Osborne. If the government turns its back on China, by far the
fastest growing market in the world, where are they going to turn?
Brexit has left the country fragmented and deeply divided, with the very real prospect that
Scotland might choose independence. Meanwhile, the Conservatives seem to have little
understanding that the neoliberal era is in its death throes.
'Put America first': Donald
Trump in Cleveland last month. Photograph: Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Dramatic as events have been in the UK, they cannot compare with those in the United States.
Almost from nowhere, Donald Trump rose to capture the
Republican nomination and confound virtually all the pundits and not least his own party. His
message was straightforwardly anti-globalisation. He believes that the interests of the working
class have been sacrificed in favour of the big corporations that have been encouraged to
invest around the world and thereby deprive American workers of their jobs. Further, he argues
that large-scale immigration has weakened the bargaining power of American workers and served
to lower their wages.
He proposes that US corporations should be required to invest their cash reserves in the US.
He believes that the North American Free Trade Agreement (Nafta) has had the effect of
exporting American jobs to Mexico. On similar grounds, he is opposed to the TPP and the TTIP.
And he also accuses China of stealing American jobs, threatening to impose a 45% tariff on
Chinese imports.
To globalisation Trump counterposes economic nationalism: "Put America first". His appeal,
above all, is to the white working class who, until Trump's (and Bernie Sander's) arrival on
the political scene, had been ignored and largely unrepresented since the 1980s. Given that
their wages have been falling for most of the last 40 years, it is extraordinary how their
interests have been neglected by the political class. Increasingly, they have voted Republican,
but the Republicans have long been captured by the super-rich and Wall Street, whose interests,
as hyper-globalisers, have run directly counter to those of the white working class. With the
arrival of Trump they finally found a representative: they won Trump the Republican
nomination.
The economic nationalist argument has also been vigorously pursued by Bernie Sanders , who ran Hillary
Clinton extremely close for the Democratic nomination and would probably have won but for more
than 700 so-called super-delegates, who were effectively chosen by the Democratic machine and
overwhelmingly supported Clinton. As in the case of the Republicans, the Democrats have long
supported a neoliberal, pro-globalisation strategy, notwithstanding the concerns of its trade
union base. Both the Republicans and the Democrats now find themselves deeply polarised between
the pro- and anti-globalisers, an entirely new development not witnessed since the shift
towards neoliberalism under Reagan almost 40 years ago.
Another plank of Trump's nationalist appeal – "Make America great again" – is
his position on foreign policy. He believes that America's pursuit of great power status has
squandered the nation's resources. He argues that the country's alliance system is unfair, with
America bearing most of the cost and its allies contributing far too little. He points to Japan
and South Korea, and Nato's European members as prime examples.He seeks to rebalance these
relationships and, failing that, to exit from them.
As a country in decline, he argues that America can no longer afford to carry this kind of
financial burden. Rather than putting the world to rights, he believes the money should be
invested at home, pointing to the dilapidated state of America's infrastructure. Trump's
position represents a major critique of America as the world's hegemon. His arguments mark
a radical break with the neoliberal, hyper-globalisation ideology that has reigned since the
early 1980s and with the foreign policy orthodoxy of most of the postwar period. These
arguments must be taken seriously. They should not be lightly dismissed just because of their
authorship. But Trump is no man of the left. He is a populist of the right. He has launched a
racist and xenophobic attack on Muslims and on Mexicans. Trump's appeal is to a white working
class that feels it has been cheated by the big corporations, undermined by Hispanic
immigration, and often resentful towards African-Americans who for long too many have viewed as
their inferior.
A Trump America would mark a descent into authoritarianism characterised by abuse,
scapegoating, discrimination, racism, arbitrariness and violence; America would become a deeply
polarised and divided society. His threat to impose
45% tariffs on China , if implemented, would certainly provoke retaliation by the Chinese
and herald the beginnings of a new era of protectionism.
Trump may well lose the presidential election just as Sanders failed in his bid for the
Democrat nomination. But this does not mean that the forces opposed to hyper-globalisation
– unrestricted immigration, TPP and TTIP, the free movement of capital and much else
– will have lost the argument and are set to decline. In little more than 12 months,
Trump and Sanders have transformed the nature and terms of the argument. Far from being on the
wane, the arguments of the critics of hyper-globalisation are steadily gaining ground. Roughly
two-thirds of Americans agree that "we should not think so much in international terms but
concentrate more on our own national problems". And, above all else, what will continue to
drive opposition to the hyper-globalisers is inequality.
"... The word ["neoliberalism"] has become a rhetorical weapon, but it properly names the reigning ideology of our era – one that venerates the logic of the market and strips away the things that make us human. ..."
"... Last summer, researchers at the International Monetary Fund settled a long and bitter debate over "neoliberalism": they admitted it exists. Three senior economists at the IMF, an organisation not known for its incaution, published a paper questioning the benefits of neoliberalism ..."
"... The paper gently called out a "neoliberal agenda" for pushing deregulation on economies around the world, for forcing open national markets to trade and capital, and for demanding that governments shrink themselves via austerity or privatisation. The authors cited statistical evidence for the spread of neoliberal policies since 1980, and their correlation with anaemic growth, boom-and-bust cycles and inequality. ..."
"... In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, it was a way of assigning responsibility for the debacle, not to a political party per se, but to an establishment that had conceded its authority to the market. For the Democrats in the US and Labour in the UK, this concession was depicted as a grotesque betrayal of principle. Bill Clinton and Tony Blair, it was said, had abandoned the left's traditional commitments, especially to workers, in favour of a global financial elite and the self-serving policies that enriched them; and in doing so, had enabled a sickening rise in inequality. ..."
"... Peer through the lens of neoliberalism and you see more clearly how the political thinkers most admired by Thatcher and Reagan helped shape the ideal of society as a kind of universal market ..."
"... Of course the goal was to weaken the welfare state and any commitment to full employment, and – always – to cut taxes and deregulate. But "neoliberalism" indicates something more than a standard rightwing wish list. It was a way of reordering social reality, and of rethinking our status as individuals. ..."
"... In short, "neoliberalism" is not simply a name for pro-market policies, or for the compromises with finance capitalism made by failing social democratic parties. It is a name for a premise that, quietly, has come to regulate all we practise and believe: that competition is the only legitimate organising principle for human activity. ..."
"... No sooner had neoliberalism been certified as real, and no sooner had it made clear the universal hypocrisy of the market, than the populists and authoritarians came to power ..."
"... Against the forces of global integration, national identity is being reasserted, and in the crudest possible terms. What could the militant parochialism of Brexit Britain and Trumpist America have to do with neoliberal rationality? ..."
"... It isn't only that the free market produces a tiny cadre of winners and an enormous army of losers – and the losers, looking for revenge, have turned to Brexit and Trump. There was, from the beginning, an inevitable relationship between the utopian ideal of the free market and the dystopian present in which we find ourselves; ..."
"... That Hayek is considered the grandfather of neoliberalism – a style of thought that reduces everything to economics – is a little ironic given that he was such a mediocre economist. ..."
"... This last is what makes neoliberalism "neo". It is a crucial modification of the older belief in a free market and a minimal state, known as "classical liberalism". In classical liberalism, merchants simply asked the state to "leave us alone" – to laissez-nous faire. Neoliberalism recognised that the state must be active in the organisation of a market economy. The conditions allowing for a free market must be won politically, and the state must be re-engineered to support the free market on an ongoing basis. ..."
"... Hayek had only his idea to console him; an idea so grand it would one day dissolve the ground beneath the feet of Keynes and every other intellectual. Left to its own devices, the price system functions as a kind of mind. And not just any mind, but an omniscient one: the market computes what individuals cannot grasp. Reaching out to him as an intellectual comrade-in-arms, the American journalist Walter Lippmann wrote to Hayek, saying: "No human mind has ever understood the whole scheme of a society At best a mind can understand its own version of the scheme, something much thinner, which bears to reality some such relation as a silhouette to a man." ..."
"... The only social end is the maintenance of the market itself. In its omniscience, the market constitutes the only legitimate form of knowledge, next to which all other modes of reflection are partial, in both senses of the word: they comprehend only a fragment of a whole and they plead on behalf of a special interest. Individually, our values are personal ones, or mere opinions; collectively, the market converts them into prices, or objective facts. ..."
"... According to the logic of Hayek's Big Idea, these expressions of human subjectivity are meaningless without ratification by the market ..."
"... ociety reconceived as a giant market leads to a public life lost to bickering over mere opinions; until the public turns, finally, in frustration to a strongman as a last resort for solving its otherwise intractable problems. ..."
"... What began as a new form of intellectual authority, rooted in a devoutly apolitical worldview, nudged easily into an ultra-reactionary politics ..."
The word ["neoliberalism"] has become a rhetorical weapon, but it properly names the reigning ideology of
our era – one that venerates the logic of the market and strips away the things that make us human.
Last summer, researchers at the International Monetary Fund settled a long and bitter debate over
"neoliberalism": they admitted it exists. Three senior economists at the IMF, an organisation not
known for its incaution, published
a paper questioning
the benefits of neoliberalism. In so doing, they helped put to rest the idea that the word is
nothing more than a political slur, or a term without any analytic power. The paper gently called
out a "neoliberal agenda" for pushing deregulation on economies around the world, for forcing open
national markets to trade and capital, and for demanding that governments shrink themselves via austerity
or privatisation. The authors cited statistical evidence for the spread of neoliberal policies since
1980, and their correlation with anaemic growth, boom-and-bust cycles and inequality.
Neoliberalism is an old term, dating back to the 1930s, but it has been revived as a way of describing
our current politics – or more precisely,
the range of thought allowed by our politics . In the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis,
it was a way of assigning responsibility for the debacle, not to a political party per se, but to
an establishment that had conceded its authority to the market. For the Democrats in the US and Labour
in the UK, this concession was depicted as a grotesque betrayal of principle. Bill Clinton and Tony
Blair, it was said, had abandoned the left's traditional commitments, especially to workers, in favour
of a global financial elite and the self-serving policies that enriched them; and in doing so, had
enabled a sickening rise in inequality.
Neoliberalism: the idea that swallowed the world – podcast
Over the past few years, as debates have turned uglier, the word has become a rhetorical weapon,
a way for anyone left of centre to incriminate those even an inch to their right. (No wonder centrists
say it's a meaningless insult: they're the ones most meaningfully insulted by it.) But "neoliberalism"
is more than a gratifyingly righteous jibe. It is also, in its way, a pair of eyeglasses.
Peer through the lens of neoliberalism and you see more clearly how the political thinkers most
admired by Thatcher and Reagan helped shape the ideal of society as a kind of universal market
(and
not, for example, a polis, a civil sphere or a kind of family) and of human beings as profit-and-loss
calculators (and not bearers of grace, or of inalienable rights and duties). Of course the goal
was to weaken the welfare state and any commitment to full employment, and – always – to cut taxes
and deregulate. But "neoliberalism" indicates something more than a standard rightwing wish list.
It was a way of reordering social reality, and of rethinking our status as individuals.
Still peering through the lens, you see how, no less than the welfare state, the free market
is a human invention. You see how pervasively we are now urged to think of ourselves as proprietors
of our own talents and initiative, how glibly we are told to compete and adapt. You see the extent
to which a language formerly confined to chalkboard simplifications describing commodity markets
(competition, perfect information, rational behaviour) has been applied to all of society, until
it has invaded the grit of our personal lives, and how the attitude of the salesman has become enmeshed
in all modes of self-expression.
In short, "neoliberalism" is not simply a name for pro-market policies, or for the compromises
with finance capitalism made by failing social democratic parties. It is a name for a premise that,
quietly, has come to regulate all we practise and believe: that competition is the only legitimate
organising principle for human activity.
No sooner had neoliberalism been certified as real, and no sooner had it made clear the universal
hypocrisy of the market, than the populists and authoritarians came to power. In the US, Hillary
Clinton, the neoliberal arch-villain, lost – and to a man who knew just enough
to pretend he hated free trade . So are the eyeglasses now useless? Can they do anything to help
us understand what is broken about British and American politics? Against the forces of global
integration, national identity is being reasserted, and in the crudest possible terms. What could
the militant parochialism of Brexit Britain and Trumpist America have to do with neoliberal rationality?
What possible connection is there between the president – a freewheeling boob – and the bloodless
paragon of efficiency known as the free market?
It isn't only that the free market produces a tiny cadre of winners and an enormous army of
losers – and the losers, looking for revenge, have turned to Brexit and Trump. There was, from the
beginning, an inevitable relationship between the utopian ideal of the free market and the dystopian
present in which we find ourselves; between the market as unique discloser of value and guardian
of liberty, and our current descent into post-truth and illiberalism.
Moving the stale debate about neoliberalism forward begins, I think, with taking seriously the
measure of its cumulative effect on all of us, regardless of affiliation. And this requires returning
to its origins, which have nothing to do with Bill or Hillary Clinton. There once was a group of
people who did call themselves neoliberals, and did so proudly, and their ambition was a total revolution
in thought. The most prominent among them, Friedrich Hayek, did not think he was staking out a position
on the political spectrum, or making excuses for the fatuous rich, or tinkering along the edges of
microeconomics.
He thought he was solving the problem of modernity: the problem of objective knowledge. For Hayek,
the market didn't just facilitate trade in goods and services; it revealed truth. How did his ambition
collapse into its opposite – the mind-bending possibility that, thanks to our thoughtless veneration
of the free market, truth might be driven from public life altogether?
When the idea occurred to Friedrich Hayek in 1936, he knew, with the conviction of a "sudden illumination",
that he had struck upon something new. "How can the combination of fragments of knowledge existing
in different minds," he wrote, "bring about results which, if they were to be brought about deliberately,
would require a knowledge on the part of the directing mind which no single person can possess?"
This was not a technical point about interest rates or deflationary slumps. This was not a reactionary
polemic against collectivism or the welfare state. This was a way of birthing a new world. To his
mounting excitement, Hayek understood that the market could be thought of as a kind of mind.
Adam Smith's "invisible hand" had already given us the modern conception of the market: as an
autonomous sphere of human activity and therefore, potentially, a valid object of scientific knowledge.
But Smith was, until the end of his life, an 18th-century moralist. He thought the market could be
justified only in light of individual virtue, and he was anxious that a society governed by nothing
but transactional self-interest was no society at all. Neoliberalism is Adam Smith without the anxiety.
That Hayek is considered the grandfather of neoliberalism – a style of thought that reduces
everything to economics – is a little ironic given that he was such a mediocre economist. He
was just a young, obscure Viennese technocrat when he was recruited to the London School of
Economics to compete
with, or possibly even dim, the rising star of John Maynard Keynes at Cambridge.
The plan backfired, and Hayek lost out to Keynes in a rout. Keynes's General Theory of Employment,
Interest and Money, published in 1936, was greeted as a masterpiece. It dominated the public discussion,
especially among young English economists in training, for whom the brilliant, dashing, socially
connected Keynes was a beau idéal . By the end of the second world war, many prominent free-marketers
had come around to Keynes's way of thinking, conceding that government might play a role in managing
a modern economy. The initial excitement over Hayek had dissipated. His peculiar notion that doing
nothing could cure an economic depression had been discredited in theory and practice. He later admitted
that he wished his work criticising Keynes would simply be forgotten.
... Hayek built into neoliberalism the assumption that the market provides all necessary protection
against the one real political danger: totalitarianism. To prevent this, the state need only keep
the market free.
This last is what makes neoliberalism "neo". It is a crucial modification of the older belief
in a free market and a minimal state, known as "classical liberalism". In classical liberalism, merchants
simply asked the state to "leave us alone" – to laissez-nous faire. Neoliberalism recognised that
the state must be active in the organisation of a market economy. The conditions allowing for a free
market must be won politically, and the state must be re-engineered to support the free market on
an ongoing basis.
That isn't all: every aspect of democratic politics, from the choices of voters to the decisions
of politicians, must be submitted to a purely economic analysis. The lawmaker is obliged to leave
well enough alone – to not distort the natural actions of the marketplace – and so, ideally, the
state provides a fixed, neutral, universal legal framework within which market forces operate spontaneously.
The conscious direction of government is never preferable to the "automatic mechanism of adjustment"
– ie the price system, which is not only efficient but maximises liberty, or the opportunity for
men and women to make free choices about their own lives.
As Keynes jetted between London and Washington, creating the postwar order, Hayek sat pouting
in Cambridge. He had been sent there during the wartime evacuations; and he complained that he was
surrounded by "foreigners" and "no lack of orientals of all kinds" and "Europeans of practically
all nationalities, but very few of real intelligence".
Stuck in England, without influence or respect, Hayek had only his idea to console him; an
idea so grand it would one day dissolve the ground beneath the feet of Keynes and every other intellectual.
Left to its own devices, the price system functions as a kind of mind. And not just any mind, but
an omniscient one: the market computes what individuals cannot grasp. Reaching out to him as an intellectual
comrade-in-arms, the American journalist Walter Lippmann wrote to Hayek, saying: "No human mind has
ever understood the whole scheme of a society At best a mind can understand its own version of
the scheme, something much thinner, which bears to reality some such relation as a silhouette to
a man."
It is a grand epistemological claim – that the market is a way of knowing, one that radically
exceeds the capacity of any individual mind. Such a market is less a human contrivance, to be manipulated
like any other, than a force to be studied and placated. Economics ceases to be a technique – as
Keynes believed it to be – for achieving desirable social ends, such as growth or stable money.
The only social end is the maintenance of the market itself. In its omniscience, the market constitutes
the only legitimate form of knowledge, next to which all other modes of reflection are partial, in
both senses of the word: they comprehend only a fragment of a whole and they plead on behalf of a
special interest. Individually, our values are personal ones, or mere opinions; collectively, the
market converts them into prices, or objective facts.
... ... ...
The more Hayek's idea expands, the more reactionary it gets, the more it hides behind its pretence
of scientific neutrality – and the more it allows economics to link up with the major intellectual
trend of the west since the 17th century. The rise of modern science generated a problem: if the
world is universally obedient to natural laws, what does it mean to be human? Is a human being simply
an object in the world, like any other? There appears to be no way to assimilate the subjective,
interior human experience into nature as science conceives it – as something objective whose rules
we discover by observation.
... ... ...
More than anyone, even Hayek himself, it was the great postwar Chicago economist Milton Friedman
who helped convert governments and politicians to the power of Hayek's Big Idea. But first he broke
with two centuries of precedent and declared that economics is "in principle independent of any particular
ethical position or normative judgments" and is "an 'objective' science, in precisely the same sense
as any of the physical sciences". Values of the old, mental, normative kind were defective, they
were "differences about which men can ultimately only fight". There is the market, in other words,
and there is relativism.
Markets may be human facsimiles of natural systems, and like the universe itself, they may be
authorless and valueless. But the application of Hayek's Big Idea to every aspect of our lives negates
what is most distinctive about us. That is, it assigns what is most human about human beings – our
minds and our volition – to algorithms and markets, leaving us to mimic, zombie-like, the shrunken
idealisations of economic models. Supersizing Hayek's idea and radically upgrading the price system
into a kind of social omniscience means radically downgrading the importance of our individual capacity
to reason – our ability to provide and evaluate justifications for our actions and beliefs.
As a result, the public sphere – the space where we offer up reasons, and contest the reasons
of others – ceases to be a space for deliberation, and becomes a market in clicks, likes and retweets.
The internet is personal preference magnified by algorithm; a pseudo-public space that echoes the
voice already inside our head. Rather than a space of debate in which we make our way, as a society,
toward consensus, now there is a mutual-affirmation apparatus banally referred to as a "marketplace
of ideas". What looks like something public and lucid is only an extension of our own pre-existing
opinions, prejudices and beliefs, while the authority of institutions and experts has been displaced
by the aggregative logic of big data. When we access the world through a search engine, its results
are ranked, as the founder of Google puts it, "recursively" – by an infinity of individual users
functioning as a market, continuously and in real time.
... ... ...
According to the logic of Hayek's Big Idea, these expressions of human subjectivity are meaningless
without ratification by the market – as Friedman said, they are nothing but relativism, each
as good as any other. When the only objective truth is determined by the market, all other values
have the status of mere opinions; everything else is relativist hot air. But Friedman's "relativism"
is a charge that can be thrown at any claim based on human reason. It is a nonsense insult, as all
humanistic pursuits are "relative" in a way the sciences are not. They are relative to the (private)
condition of having a mind, and the (public) need to reason and understand even when we can't expect
scientific proof. When our debates are no longer resolved by deliberation over reasons, then the
whimsies of power will determine the outcome.
This is where the triumph of neoliberalism meets the political nightmare we are living through
now. "You had one job," the old joke goes, and Hayek's grand project, as originally conceived in
30s and 40s, was explicitly designed to prevent a backslide into political chaos and fascism. But
the Big Idea was always this abomination waiting to happen. It was, from the beginning, pregnant
with the thing it was said to protect against. Society reconceived as a giant market leads to
a public life lost to bickering over mere opinions; until the public turns, finally, in frustration
to a strongman as a last resort for solving its otherwise intractable problems.
... ... ...
What began as a new form of intellectual authority, rooted in a devoutly apolitical worldview,
nudged easily into an ultra-reactionary politics. What can't be quantified must not be real,
says the economist, and how do you measure the benefits of the core faiths of the enlightenment –
namely, critical reasoning, personal autonomy and democratic self-government? When we abandoned,
for its embarrassing residue of subjectivity, reason as a form of truth, and made science the sole
arbiter of both the real and the true, we created a void that pseudo-science was happy to fill.
"... The book was The Constitution of Liberty by Frederick Hayek . Its publication, in 1960, marked the transition from an honest, if extreme, philosophy to an outright racket. The philosophy was called neoliberalism . It saw competition as the defining characteristic of human relations. The market would discover a natural hierarchy of winners and losers, creating a more efficient system than could ever be devised through planning or by design. Anything that impeded this process, such as significant tax, regulation, trade union activity or state provision, was counter-productive. Unrestricted entrepreneurs would create the wealth that would trickle down to everyone. ..."
"... But by the time Hayek came to write The Constitution of Liberty, the network of lobbyists and thinkers he had founded was being lavishly funded by multimillionaires who saw the doctrine as a means of defending themselves against democracy. Not every aspect of the neoliberal programme advanced their interests. Hayek, it seems, set out to close the gap. ..."
"... He begins the book by advancing the narrowest possible conception of liberty: an absence of coercion. He rejects such notions as political freedom, universal rights, human equality and the distribution of wealth, all of which, by restricting the behaviour of the wealthy and powerful, intrude on the absolute freedom from coercion he demands. ..."
"... The general thrust is about the gradual hollowing out of the middle class (or more affluent working class, depending on the analytical terms being used), about insecurity, stress, casualisation, rising wage inequality. ..."
"... So Hayek, I feel, is like many theoreticians, in that he seems to want a pure world that will function according to a simple and universal law. The world never was, and never will be that simple, and current economics simply continues to have a blindspot for externalities that overwhelm the logic of an unfettered so-called free market. ..."
"... J.K. Galbraith viewed the rightwing mind as predominantly concerned with figuring out a way to justify the shift of wealth from the immense majority to an elite at the top. I for one regret acutely that he did not (as far as I know) write a volume on his belief in progressive taxation. ..."
"... The system that Clinton developed was an inheritance from George H.W. Bush, Reagan (to a large degree), Carter, with another large assist from Nixon and the Powell Memo. ..."
"... What's changed is the distribution of the gains in GDP growth -- that is in no small part a direct consequence of changes in policy since the 1970s. It isn't some "market place magic". We have made major changes to tax laws since that time. We have weakened collective bargaining, which obviously has a negative impact on wages. We have shifted the economy towards financial services, which has the tendency of increasing inequality. ..."
"... Wages aren't stagnating because people are working less. Wages have stagnated because of dumb policy choices that have tended to incentives looting by those at the top of the income distribution from workers in the lower parts of the economy. ..."
"... "Neoliberalism" is entirely compatible with "growth of the state". Reagan greatly enlarged the state. He privatized several functions and it actually had the effect of increasing spending. ..."
"... When it comes to social safety net programs, e.g. in health care and education -- those programs almost always tend to be more expensive and more complicated when privatized. If the goal was to actually save taxpayer money, in the U.S. at least, it would have made a lot more sense to have a universal Medicare system, rather than a massive patch-work like the ACA and our hybrid market. ..."
"... As for the rest, it's the usual practice of gathering every positive metric available and somehow attributing it to neoliberalism, no matter how tenuous the threads, and as always with zero rigour. Supposedly capitalism alone doubled life expectancy, supports billions of extra lives, invented the railways, and provides the drugs and equipment that keep us alive. As though public education, vaccines, antibiotics, and massive availability of energy has nothing to do with those things. ..."
"... I think the damage was done when the liberal left co-opted neo-liberalism. What happened under Bill Clinton was the development of crony capitalism where for example the US banks were told to lower their credit standards to lend to people who couldn't really afford to service the loans. ..."
The events that led to Donald Trump's election started in England in 1975. At a meeting a few months after Margaret Thatcher became
leader of the Conservative party, one of her colleagues, or so the story goes, was explaining what he saw as the core beliefs of
conservatism. She snapped open her handbag, pulled out a dog-eared book, and
slammed it on the table . "This is what we believe," she said. A political revolution that would sweep the world had begun.
The book was The Constitution
of Liberty by Frederick Hayek . Its publication, in 1960, marked the transition from an honest, if extreme, philosophy to an
outright racket.
The philosophy
was called neoliberalism . It saw competition as the defining characteristic of human relations. The market would discover a
natural hierarchy of winners and losers, creating a more efficient system than could ever be devised through planning or by design.
Anything that impeded this process, such as significant tax, regulation, trade union activity or state provision, was counter-productive.
Unrestricted entrepreneurs would create the wealth that would trickle down to everyone.
This, at any rate, is how it was originally conceived. But by the time Hayek came to write The Constitution of Liberty, the
network of lobbyists and thinkers he had founded was being lavishly funded by multimillionaires who saw the doctrine as a means of
defending themselves against democracy. Not every aspect of the neoliberal programme advanced their interests. Hayek, it seems, set
out to close the gap.
He begins the book by advancing the narrowest possible conception of liberty: an absence of coercion. He rejects such notions
as political freedom, universal rights, human equality and the distribution of wealth, all of which, by restricting the behaviour
of the wealthy and powerful, intrude on the absolute freedom from coercion he demands.
Democracy, by contrast, "is not an ultimate or absolute value". In fact, liberty depends on preventing the majority from exercising
choice over the direction that politics and society might take.
He justifies this position by creating a heroic narrative of extreme wealth. He conflates the economic elite, spending their money
in new ways, with philosophical and scientific pioneers. Just as the political philosopher should be free to think the unthinkable,
so the very rich should be free to do the undoable, without constraint by public interest or public opinion.
The ultra rich are "scouts", "experimenting with new styles of living", who blaze the trails that the rest of society will follow.
The progress of society depends on the liberty of these "independents" to gain as much money as they want and spend it how they wish.
All that is good and useful, therefore, arises from inequality. There should be no connection between merit and reward, no distinction
made between earned and unearned income, and no limit to the rents they can charge.
Inherited wealth is more socially useful than earned wealth: "the idle rich", who don't have to work for their money, can devote
themselves to influencing "fields of thought and opinion, of tastes and beliefs". Even when they seem to be spending money on nothing
but "aimless display", they are in fact acting as society's vanguard.
Hayek softened his opposition to monopolies and hardened his opposition to trade unions. He lambasted progressive taxation and
attempts by the state to raise the general welfare of citizens. He insisted that there is "an overwhelming case against a free health
service for all" and dismissed the conservation of natural resources. It should come as no surprise to those who follow such matters
that he was awarded
the Nobel prize for economics .
By the time Thatcher slammed his book on the table, a lively network of thinktanks, lobbyists and academics promoting Hayek's
doctrines had been established on both sides of the Atlantic,
abundantly financed by some of the world's richest people and
businesses , including DuPont, General Electric, the Coors brewing company, Charles Koch, Richard Mellon Scaife, Lawrence Fertig,
the William Volker Fund and the Earhart Foundation. Using psychology and linguistics to brilliant effect, the thinkers these people
sponsored found the words and arguments required to turn Hayek's anthem to the elite into a plausible political programme.
Thatcherism and Reaganism were not ideologies in their own right: they were just two faces of neoliberalism. Their massive tax
cuts for the rich, crushing of trade unions, reduction in public housing, deregulation, privatisation, outsourcing and competition
in public services were all proposed by Hayek and his disciples. But the real triumph of this network was not its capture of the
right, but its colonisation of parties that once stood for everything Hayek detested.
Bill Clinton and Tony Blair did not possess a narrative of their own. Rather than develop a new political story, they thought
it was sufficient to
triangulate
. In other words, they extracted a few elements of what their parties had once believed, mixed them with elements of what their
opponents believed, and developed from this unlikely combination a "third way".
It was inevitable that the blazing, insurrectionary confidence of neoliberalism would exert a stronger gravitational pull than
the dying star of social democracy. Hayek's triumph could be witnessed everywhere from Blair's expansion of the private finance initiative
to Clinton's
repeal of the Glass-Steagal Act , which had regulated the financial sector. For all his grace and touch, Barack Obama, who didn't
possess a narrative either (except "hope"), was slowly reeled in by those who owned the means of persuasion.
As I warned
in April, the result is first disempowerment then disenfranchisement. If the dominant ideology stops governments from changing
social outcomes, they can no longer respond to the needs of the electorate. Politics becomes irrelevant to people's lives; debate
is reduced to the jabber of a remote elite. The disenfranchised turn instead to a virulent anti-politics in which facts and arguments
are replaced by slogans, symbols and sensation. The man who sank Hillary Clinton's bid for the presidency was not Donald Trump. It
was her husband.
The paradoxical result is that the backlash against neoliberalism's crushing of political choice has elevated just the kind of
man that Hayek worshipped. Trump, who has no coherent politics, is not a classic neoliberal. But he is the perfect representation
of Hayek's "independent"; the beneficiary of inherited wealth, unconstrained by common morality, whose gross predilections strike
a new path that others may follow. The neoliberal thinktankers are now swarming round this hollow man, this empty vessel waiting
to be filled by those who know what they want. The likely result is the demolition of our remaining decencies,
beginning with the agreement to limit global warming .
Those who tell the stories run the world. Politics has failed through a lack of competing narratives. The key task now is to tell
a new story of what it is to be a human in the 21st century. It must be as appealing to some who have voted for Trump and Ukip as
it is to the supporters of Clinton, Bernie Sanders or Jeremy Corbyn.
A few of us have been working on this, and can discern what may be the beginning of a story. It's too early to say much yet, but
at its core is the recognition that – as modern psychology and neuroscience make abundantly clear – human beings, by comparison with
any other animals, are both
remarkably social and
remarkably
unselfish . The atomisation and self-interested behaviour neoliberalism promotes run counter to much of what comprises human
nature.
Hayek told us who we are, and he was wrong. Our first step is to reclaim our humanity.
justamug -> Skytree 16 Nov 2016 18:17
Thanks for the chuckle. On a more serious note - defining neoliberalism is not that easy since it is not a laid out philosophy
like liberalism, or socialism, or communism or facism. Since 2008 the use of the word neoliberalism has increased in frequency
and has come to mean different things to different people.
A common theme appears to be the negative effects of the market on the human condition.
Having read David Harvey's book, and Phillip Mirowski's book (both had a go at defining neoliberalism and tracing its history)
it is clear that neoliberalism is not really coherent set of ideas.
ianfraser3 16 Nov 2016 17:54
EF Schumacher quoted "seek first the kingdom of God" in his epilogue of "Small Is Beautiful: a study of economics as if people
mattered". This was written in the early 1970s before the neoliberal project bit in the USA and the UK. The book is laced with
warnings about the effects of the imposition of neoliberalism on society, people and the planet. The predictions have largely
come true. New politics and economics needed, by leaders who place at the heart of their approach the premise, and fact, that
humans are "by comparison with any other animals, are both remarkably social and remarkably unselfish". It is about reclaiming
our humanity from a project that treats people as just another commodity.
Filipio -> YouDidntBuildThat 16 Nov 2016 17:42
Whoa there, slow down.
Your last post was questioning the reality of neoliberalism as a general policy direction that had become hegemonic across
many governments (and most in the west) over recent decades. Now you seem to be agreeing that the notion does have salience, but
that neoliberalism delivered positive rather than negative consequences.
Well, its an ill wind that blows nobody any good, huh?
Doubtless there were some positive outcomes for particular groups. But recall that the context for this thread is not whether,
on balance, more people benefited from neoliberal policies than were harmed -- an argument that would be most powerful only in
very utilitarian style frameworks of thought (most good for the many, or most harm for only the few). The thread is about the
significance of the impacts of neoliberalism in the rise of Trump. And in specific relation to privatisation (just one dimension
of neoliberalism) one key impact was downsizing (or 'rightsizing'; restructuring). There is a plethora of material, including
sociological and psychological, on the harm caused by shrinking and restructured work-forces as a consequence of privatisation.
Books have been written, even in the business management sector, about how poorly such 'change' was handled and the multiple deleterious
outcomes experienced by employees.
And we're still only talking about one dimension of neoliberalism! Havn't even touched on deregulation yet (notably, labour
market and financial sector).
The general thrust is about the gradual hollowing out of the middle class (or more affluent working class, depending on
the analytical terms being used), about insecurity, stress, casualisation, rising wage inequality.
You want evidence? I'm not doing your research for you. The internet can be a great resource, or merely an echo chamber. The
problem with so many of the alt-right (and this applies on the extreme left as well) is that they only look to confirm their views,
not read widely. Open your eyes, and use your search engine of choice. There is plenty out there. Be open to having your preconceptions
challenged.
RichardErskine -> LECKJ3000 16 Nov 2016 15:38
LECKJ3000 - I am not an economist, but surely the theoretical idealised mechanisms of the market are never realised in practice.
US subsidizing their farmers, in EU too, etc. And for problems that are not only externalities but transnational ones, the idea
that some Hayek mechanism will protect thr ozone layer or limit carbon emissions, without some regulation or tax.
Lord Stern called global warming the greatest market failure in history, but no market, however sophisticated, can deal with
it without some price put on the effluent of product (the excessive CO2 we put into the atmosphere).
As with Montreal and subsequent agreements, there is a way to maintain a level playing field; to promote different substances
for use as refrigerants; and to address the hole in ozone layer; without abandoning the market altogether. Simple is good, because
it avoids over-engineering the interventions (and the unintended consequences you mention).
The same could/ should be true of global warming, but we have left it so late we cannot wait for the (inevitable) fall of fossil
fuels and supremacy of renewables. We need a price on carbon, which is a graduated and fast rising tax essentially on its production
and/or consumption, which has already started to happen ( http://www.worldbank.org/content/dam/Worldbank/document/SDN/background-note_carbon-tax.pdf
), albeit not deep / fast / extensive enough, or international in character, but that will come, if not before the impacts really
bite then soon after.
So Hayek, I feel, is like many theoreticians, in that he seems to want a pure world that will function according to a simple
and universal law. The world never was, and never will be that simple, and current economics simply continues to have a blindspot
for externalities that overwhelm the logic of an unfettered so-called free market.
LionelKent -> greven 16 Nov 2016 14:59
And persistent. J.K. Galbraith viewed the rightwing mind as predominantly concerned with figuring out a way to justify the
shift of wealth from the immense majority to an elite at the top. I for one regret acutely that he did not (as far as I know)
write a volume on his belief in progressive taxation.
RandomLibertarian -> JVRTRL 16 Nov 2016 09:19
Not bad points.
When it comes to social safety net programs, e.g. in health care and education -- those programs almost always tend to be more
expensive and more complicated when privatized. If the goal was to actually save taxpayer money, in the U.S. at least, it would
have made a lot more sense to have a universal Medicare system, rather than a massive patch-work like the ACA and our hybrid market.
Do not forget that the USG, in WW2, took the deliberate step of allowing employers to provide health insurance as a tax-free
benefit - which it still is, being free even from SS and Medicare taxes. In the post-war boom years this resulted in the development
of a system with private rooms, almost on-demand access to specialists, and competitive pay for all involved (while the NHS, by
contrast, increasingly drew on immigrant populations for nurses and below). Next, the large sums of money in the system and a
generous court system empowered a vast malpractice industry. So to call our system in any way a consequence of a free market is
a misnomer.
Entirely state controlled health care systems tend to be even more cost-effective.
Read Megan McArdle's work in this area. The US has had similar cost growth since the 1970s to the rest of the world. The problem
was that it started from a higher base.
Part of the issue is that privatization tends to create feedback mechanism that increase the size of spending in programs.
Even Eisenhower's noted "military industrial complex" is an illustration of what happens when privatization really takes hold.
When government becomes involved in business, business gets involved in government!
Todd Smekens 16 Nov 2016 08:40
Albert Einstein said, "capitalism is evil" in his famous dictum called, "Why Socialism" in 1949. He also called communism,
"evil", so don't jump to conclusions, comrades. ;)
His reasoning was it distorts a human beings longing for the social aspect. I believe George references this in his statement
about people being "unselfish". This is noted by both science and philosophy.
Einstein noted that historically, the conqueror would establish the new order, and since 1949, Western Imperialism has continued
on with the predatory phase of acquiring and implementing democracy/capitalism. This needs to end. As we've learned rapidly, capitalism
isn't sustainable. We are literally overheating the earth which sustains us. Very unwise.
Einstein wrote, "Man is, at one and the same time, a solitary being and a social being. As a solitary being, he attempts to
protect his own existence and that of those who are closest to him, to satisfy his personal desires, and to develop his innate
abilities. As a social being, he seeks to gain the recognition and affection of his fellow human beings, to share in their pleasures,
to comfort them in their sorrows, and to improve their conditions of life. Only the existence of these varied, frequently conflicting,
strivings accounts for the special character of a man, and their specific combination determines the extent to which an individual
can achieve an inner equilibrium and can contribute to the well-being of society."
Personally, I'm glad George and others are working on a new economic and social construct for us "human beings". It's time
we leave the predatory phase of "us versus them", and construct a new society which works for the good of our now, global society.
zavaell -> LECKJ3000 16 Nov 2016 06:28
The problem is that both you and Monbiot fail to mention that your "the spontaneous order of the market" does not recognize
externalities and climate change is outside Hayek's thinking - he never wrote about sustainability or the limits on resources,
let alone the consequences of burning fossil fuels. There is no beauty in what he wrote - it was a cold, mechanical model that
assumed certain human behaviour but not others. Look at today's money-makers - they are nearly all climate change deniers and
we have to have government to reign them in.
aLERNO 16 Nov 2016 04:52
Good, short and concise article. But the FIRST NEOLIBERAL MILESTONE WAS THE 1973 COUP D'ETAT IN CHILE, which not surprisingly
also deposed the first democratically-elected socialist government.
accipiter15 16 Nov 2016 02:34
A great article and explanation of the influence of Hayek on Thatcher. Unfortunately this country is still suffering the consequences
of her tenure and Osborne was also a proponent of her policies and look where we are as a consequence. The referendum gave the
people the opportunity to vent their anger and if we had PR I suspect we would have a greater turn-out and nearly always have
some sort of coalition where nothing gets done that is too hurtful to the population. As for Trump, again his election is an expression
of anger and desperation. However, the American voting system is as unfair as our own - again this has probably been the cause
of the low turn-out. Why should people vote when they do not get fair representation - it is a waste of time and not democratic.
I doubt that Trump is Keynsian I suspect he doesn't have an economic theory at all. I just hope that the current economic thinking
prevailing currently in this country, which is still overshadowed by Thatcher and the free market, with no controls over the city
casino soon collapses and we can start from a fairer and more inclusive base!
JVRTRL -> Keypointist 16 Nov 2016 02:15
The system that Clinton developed was an inheritance from George H.W. Bush, Reagan (to a large degree), Carter, with another
large assist from Nixon and the Powell Memo.
Bill Clinton didn't do it by himself. The GOP did it with him hand-in-hand, with the only resistance coming from a minority
within the Democratic party.
Trump's victory was due to many factors. A large part of it was Hillary Clinton's campaign and the candidate. Part of it was
the effectiveness of the GOP massive resistance strategy during the Obama years, wherein they pursued a course of obstruction
in an effort to slow the rate of the economic recovery (e.g. as evidence of the bad faith, they are resurrecting a $1 trillion
infrastructure bill that Obama originally proposed in 2012, and now that they have full control, all the talk about "deficits"
goes out the window).
Obama and the Democratic party also bear responsibility for not recognizing the full scope of the financial collapse in 2008-2009,
passing a stimulus package that was about $1 trillion short of spending needed to accelerate the recovery by the 2010 mid-terms,
combined with a weak financial regulation law (which the GOP is going to destroy), an overly complicated health care law -- classic
technocratic, neoliberal incremental policy -- and the failure of the Obama administration to hold Wall Street accountable for
criminal misconduct relating to the financial crisis. Obama's decision to push unpopular trade agreements didn't help either.
As part of the post-mortem, the decision to continuing pushing the TPP may have cost Clinton in the rust belt states that went
for Trump. The agreement was unpopular, and her shift on the policy didn't come across as credible. People noticed as well that
Obama was trying to pass the measure through the lame-duck session of Congress post-election. With Trump's election, the TPP is
done too.
JVRTRL daltonknox67 16 Nov 2016 02:00
There is no iron law that says a country has to run large trade deficits. The existence of large trade deficits is usually
a result of policy choices.
Growth also hasn't gone into the tank. What's changed is the distribution of the gains in GDP growth -- that is in no small
part a direct consequence of changes in policy since the 1970s. It isn't some "market place magic". We have made major changes
to tax laws since that time. We have weakened collective bargaining, which obviously has a negative impact on wages. We have shifted
the economy towards financial services, which has the tendency of increasing inequality.
The idea too that people will be "poorer" than in the 1920s and 1930s is just plain ignorant. It has no basis in any of the
data. Wages in the bottom quartile have actually decreased slightly since the 1970s in real terms, but those wages in the 1970s
were still exponentially higher than wages in the 1920s in real terms.
Wages aren't stagnating because people are working less. Wages have stagnated because of dumb policy choices that have tended
to incentives looting by those at the top of the income distribution from workers in the lower parts of the economy. The 2008
bailouts were a clear illustration of this reality. People in industries rigged rules to benefit themselves. They misallocated
resources. Then they went to representatives and taxpayers and asked for a large no-strings attached handout that was effectively
worth trillions of dollars (e.g. hundreds of billions through TARP, trillions more through other programs). As these players become
wealthier, they have an easier time buying politicians to rig rules further to their advantage.
JVRTRL -> RandomLibertarian 16 Nov 2016 01:44
"The tyranny of the 51 per cent is the oldest and most solid argument against a pure democracy."
"Tyranny of the majority" is always a little bizarre, given that the dynamics of majority rule are unlike the governmental
structures of an actual tyranny. Even in the context of the U.S. we had minority rule due to voting restrictions for well over
a century that was effectively a tyranny for anyone who was denied the ability to participation in the elections process. Pure
majorities can go out of control, especially in a country with massive wealth disparities and with weak civic institutions.
On the other hand, this is part of the reason to construct a system of checks and balances. It's also part of the argument
for representative democracy.
"Neoliberalism" is entirely compatible with "growth of the state". Reagan greatly enlarged the state. He privatized several
functions and it actually had the effect of increasing spending.
When it comes to social safety net programs, e.g. in health care and education -- those programs almost always tend to be more
expensive and more complicated when privatized. If the goal was to actually save taxpayer money, in the U.S. at least, it would
have made a lot more sense to have a universal Medicare system, rather than a massive patch-work like the ACA and our hybrid market.
Entirely state controlled health care systems tend to be even more cost-effective. Part of the issue is that privatization
tends to create feedback mechanism that increase the size of spending in programs. Even Eisenhower's noted "military industrial
complex" is an illustration of what happens when privatization really takes hold.
daltonknox67 15 Nov 2016 21:46
After WWII most of the industrialised world had been bombed or fought over with destruction of infrastructure and manufacturing.
The US alone was undamaged. It enjoyed a manufacturing boom that lasted until the 70's when competition from Germany and Japan,
and later Taiwan, Korea and China finally brought it to an end.
As a result Americans born after 1950 will be poorer than the generation born in the 20's and 30's.
This is not a conspiracy or government malfunction. It is a quirk of history. Get over it and try working.
Arma Geddon 15 Nov 2016 21:11
Another nasty neoliberal policy of Reagan and Thatcher, was to close all the mental hospitals, and to sweeten the pill to sell
to the voters, they called it Care in the Community, except by the time those hospitals closed and the people who had to relay
on those institutions, they found out and are still finding out that there is very little care in the community left any more,
thanks to Thatcher's disintegration of the ethos community spirit.
In their neoliberal mantra of thinking, you are on your own now, tough, move on, because you are hopeless and non productive,
hence you are a burden to taxpayers.
Its been that way of thinking for over thirty years, and now the latest group targeted, are the sick and disabled, victims
of the neoliberal made banking crash and its neoliberal inspired austerity, imposed of those least able to fight back or defend
themselves i.e. vulnerable people again!
AlfredHerring GimmeHendrix 15 Nov 2016 20:23
It was in reference to Maggie slapping a copy of Hayek's Constitution of Liberty on the table and saying this is what we believe.
As soon as you introduce the concept of belief you're talking about religion hence completeness while Hayek was writing about
economics which demands consistency. i.e. St. Maggie was just as bad as any Stalinist: economics and religion must be kept separate
or you get a bunch of dead peasants for no reason other than your own vanity.
Ok, religion based on a sky god who made us all is problematic but at least there's always the possibility of supplication
and miracles. Base a religion on economic theory and you're just making sausage of your neighbors kids.
TanTan -> crystaltips2 15 Nov 2016 20:10
If you claim that the only benefit of private enterprise is its taxability, as you did, then why not cut out the middle man
and argue for full state-directed capitalism?
Because it is plainly obvious that private enterprise is not directed toward the public good (and by definition). As we have
both agreed, it needs to have the right regulations and framework to give it some direction in that regard. What "the radical
left" are pointing out is that the idea of private enterprise is now completely out of control, to the point where voters are
disenfranchised because private enterprise has more say over what the government does than the people. Which is clearly a problem.
As for the rest, it's the usual practice of gathering every positive metric available and somehow attributing it to neoliberalism,
no matter how tenuous the threads, and as always with zero rigour. Supposedly capitalism alone doubled life expectancy, supports
billions of extra lives, invented the railways, and provides the drugs and equipment that keep us alive. As though public education,
vaccines, antibiotics, and massive availability of energy has nothing to do with those things.
As for this computer being the invention of capitalism, who knows, but I suppose if one were to believe that everything was
invented and created by capitalism and monetary motives then one might believe that. Energy allotments referred to the limit of
our usage of readily available fossil fuels which you remain blissfully unaware of.
Children have already been educated to agree with you, in no small part due to a fear of the communist regimes at the time,
but at the expense of critical thinking. Questioning the system even when it has plainly been undermined to its core is quickly
labelled "radical" regardless of the normalcy of the query. I don't know what you could possibly think left-wing motives could
be, but your own motives are plain to see when you immediately lump people who care about the planet in with communist idealogues.
If rampant capitalism was going to solve our problems I'm all for it, but it will take a miracle to reverse the damage it has
already done, and only a fool would trust it any further.
YouDidntBuildThat -> Filipio 15 Nov 2016 20:06
Filipo
You argue that a great many government functions have been privatized. I agree. Yet strangely you present zero evidence of
any downsides of that happening. Most of the academic research shows a net benefit, not just on budgets but on employee and customer
satisfaction. See for example.
And despite these privitazation cost savings and alleged neoliberal "austerity" government keeps taking a larger share of our
money, like a malignant cancer. No worries....We're from the government, and we're here to help.
Keypointist 15 Nov 2016 20:04
I think the damage was done when the liberal left co-opted neo-liberalism. What happened under Bill Clinton was the development
of crony capitalism where for example the US banks were told to lower their credit standards to lend to people who couldn't really
afford to service the loans.
It was this that created too big to fail and the financial crisis of 2008. Conservative neo-liberals believe passionately in
competition and hate monopolies. The liberal left removed was was productive about neo-liberalism and replaced it with a kind
of soft state capitalism where big business was protected by the state and the tax payer was called on to bail out these businesses.
THIS more than anything else led to Trump's victory.
The academic, political and philosophical basis, with its misanthropic view that
everyone is essentially selfish, is bust, argues
Robin Le Mare
Margaret Thatcher and Ronal Reagan great believers in neoliberilsm.
The academic, political and philosophical basis, with its misanthropic
view that everyone is essentially selfish, is bust, argues
Robin Le Mare
Letters
Sunday 6 August 2017
13.22 EDT
Last modified on Sunday 6 August 2017
17.00 EDT
At last, a clear indication of the neoliberal revolution coming to an end (
How
Britain fell out of love with the free market
, 5 August). I wish it were more
clearly stated by politicians and in the questions journalists ask them. It is high
time to denounce those behind the whole scheme – one which is so obviously leading
to many tragedies of the commons.
The academic (Friedman, Hayek, Buchanan et al),
political (Reagan, Thatcher ...) and philosophical basis, with its misanthropic view
that everyone is essentially selfish, is bust. The hypocrisy of that idea is
astounding, the more so that it gained such following and influence, as every one of
those who supported it had families, lived in communities, joined clubs and depended
on others every day.
The article mentions the corruption of 2007-08 banking. The consequences from it,
and neoliberalism generally, being many examples of tragedies of the commons: bonus
culture, plastics pollution, accelerated species extinctions, atmospheric chaos and
oceanic acidification, wars and mass migration. There's a great deal of highly
damaging social and ecosystem free riding in play, and directly related to the
perverse economic philosophy that is currently dominant.
Failed models need to be denounced and rejected, but that is inadequate without a
clear statement of alternatives. The ghastly "there is no alternative" has to be
rebuked, as there are and have to be alternatives. I would start by emphasising
Elinor Ostrom's analysis of economic governance, especially the commons, for which
she was awarded the Nobel prize in 2009. I encourage people to ask their councillors
and MPs how policies benefit the common good. I want journalists to ask every
politician how their actions benefit the common good.
Discussions about the boundaries between public, private and common need to be
promoted in churches, pubs, town halls and parliament. Every policy is conducted
with reference to the economy, but rarely are questions asked about the
externalities involved in the policy. I look forward to a Guardian long read
describing "alternatives to the orthodox".
Robin Le Mare
Allithwaite, Cumbria
Your excellent long read last Saturday could also
have included a further casualty of capitalism – welfare services. In the late 80s,
when I was working in Bolton's social services, I remember the arrival of the
purchaser-provider split doctrine when some key health service manager colleagues
were barred from our regular joint health and social services meetings because they
were providers.
This approach of introducing the market economy started to affect us in social
services in the early 1990s when we, too, were obliged by the government to
restructure our departments and separate purchasing staff from providing staff.
It always intrigued me how introducing the market economy into the provision of
welfare services would do anything but drive costs down rather than improve and
increase our services to meet ever-increasing demand and expectations. So much so,
that I chose to examine what differences a Labour government would bring to the
delivery of social services and whether it would continue with a market economy
approach, when I began my M Phil at Lincoln University in 1998.
Needless to say, when I completed my study three years later, I could only
conclude that Labour continued to promote the concept of trading and a welfare
industry driven by market forces, which has now led to the current crisis of a
decimation of so many of the services we were once so proud of.
Your article implies that there is "a stirring among genuine Conservatives that
capitalism is against place and home" I would add that capitalism is also against
welfare.
Nick Thompson
Liverpool
Reading your long read on liberalism, it crossed my mind that Friedrich Hayek must be
turning in his grave ( The
big idea that defines our era , 19 August). Neoliberalism has demolished Hayek's theory of
markets. Markets are not free: they are controlled by a wealthy minority of state-sized
corporations. Markets are not efficient: they generate mountains of waste as corporations walk
away from every abandoned disaster, expecting someone else to clear up the mess. Markets are
not competitive: mergers, acquisitions, takeovers and buyouts reduce competition and choice for
the consumer. Multinational corporations and international banks so dominate national
governments that criminality is tolerated and, in the case of banks, even accepted as
normal.
The 2008 crash showed that only the insiders of the financial services industry know what is
going on. When a combination of incompetence and greed wrecked the international economy,
taxpayers/consumers had to fund a colossal bailout. If big government hadn't organised a
rescue, the neoliberal marketplace would have disappeared up its own rectum. The "market
economy" is not an "objective science". Hayek's big idea is fatally flawed.
Martin London Henllan, Denbighshire
Hayek's may have been "the big idea that defines our era", but economies run by governments
favouring his ideas, broadly those since Thatcher and Reagan, have been far less successful
providing for the majority of their people than those that favoured John Maynard Keynes. Albert
Camus wrote that his generation's task was to prevent the world destroying itself. Today it
requires a triumph of hope over experience to believe that free marketeers will address climate
change. And if the "invisible hand" should always decide, it was odd that its manifestation,
almost immediately after WWII, was the finance sector recruiting (directly or indirectly)
economists, journalists and politicians to reverse Keynes's theories and policies and to
denounce him as a "tax and spender".
David Murray Wallington, Surrey
What is neoliberalism? It's that moment when you ought to step in to do something about the
dehumanised, exploited fast food courier, pedalling furiously along the busy pavement to the
beat of the algorithm (past the homeless in their sleeping bags, the slaves in their nail bars
and massage parlours, and the private security officers patrolling the "investment properties"
that were once homes) before he ploughs into the arthritic, mentally ill woman painfully
inching her way to humiliation at an "independent" work capability assessment – but you
don't bother because you know the market's invisible hand will sort things out for you.
Ian McCormack Leicester
The political
project of neoliberalism , brought to ascendence by Thatcher and Reagan, has pursued two
principal objectives. The first has been to dismantle any barriers to the exercise of
unaccountable private power. The second had been to erect them to the exercise of any
democratic public will.
Its trademark policies of privatization, deregulation, tax cuts and free trade deals: these
have liberated corporations to accumulate enormous profits and treat the atmosphere like a
sewage dump, and hamstrung our ability, through the instrument of the state, to plan for our
collective welfare.
Anything resembling a collective check on corporate power has become a target of the elite:
lobbying and corporate donations, hollowing out democracies, have
obstructed green policies and kept fossil fuel
subsidies flowing; and the rights of associations like unions, the most effective means for
workers to wield power together, have been undercut whenever possible.
At the very moment when climate change demands an unprecedented collective public response,
neoliberal ideology stands in the way. Which is why, if we want to bring down emissions fast,
we will need to overcome all of its free-market mantras: take railways and utilities and energy
grids back into public control; regulate corporations to phase out fossil fuels; and raise
taxes to pay for massive investment in climate-ready infrastructure and renewable energy -- so
that solar panels can go on everyone's rooftop, not just on those who can afford it.
Neoliberalism has not merely ensured this agenda is politically unrealistic: it has also
tried to make it culturally unthinkable. Its celebration of competitive self-interest and
hyper-individualism, its stigmatization of compassion and solidarity, has
frayed our collective bonds . It has spread, like an insidious anti-social toxin, what
Margaret Thatcher preached: "there is no such thing as society."
Studies show that people who have grown up under this era have indeed become more
individualistic and consumerist . Steeped in a culture telling us to think of ourselves as
consumers instead of citizens, as self-reliant instead of interdependent, is it any wonder we
deal with a systemic issue by turning in droves to ineffectual, individual efforts? We are all
Thatcher's children.
Even before the advent of neoliberalism, the capitalist economy had thrived on people
believing that being afflicted by the structural problems of an exploitative system –
poverty, joblessness, poor health, lack of fulfillment – was in fact a personal
deficiency.
Neoliberalism has taken this internalized self-blame and turbocharged it. It tells you that
you should not merely feel guilt and shame if you can't secure a good job, are deep in debt,
and are too stressed or overworked for time with friends. You are now also responsible for
bearing the burden of potential ecological collapse.
Of course we need people to consume less and innovate low-carbon alternatives – build
sustainable farms, invent battery storages, spread zero-waste methods. But individual choices
will most count when the economic system can provide viable, environmental options for
everyone!not just an affluent or intrepid few.
If affordable mass transit isn't available, people will commute with cars. If local organic
food is too expensive, they won't opt out of fossil fuel-intensive super-market chains. If
cheap mass produced goods flow endlessly, they will buy and buy and buy. This is the con-job of
neoliberalism: to persuade us to address climate change through our pocket-books, rather than
through power and politics.
Eco-consumerism may expiate your guilt. But it's only mass movements that have the power to
alter the trajectory of the climate crisis. This requires of us first a resolute mental break
from the spell cast by neoliberalism: to stop thinking like individuals.
The good news is that the impulse of humans to come together is inextinguishable – and
the collective imagination is already making a political come-back. The climate justice
movement is blocking pipelines, forcing the
divestment of trillions of dollars, and winning
support for 100% clean energy economies in cities and states across the world. New ties are
being drawn to Black Lives Matter, immigrant and Indigenous rights, and fights for better
wages. On the heels of such movements, political parties seem finally ready to defy neoliberal
dogma.
None more so than Jeremy Corbyn, whose Labour Manifesto spelled out a redistributive project
to address climate change: by publicly retooling the economy, and insisting that corporate
oligarchs no longer run amok. The notion that the rich should pay their fair share to fund this
transformation was considered laughable by the political and media class. Millions disagreed.
Society, long said to be departed, is now back with a vengeance.
So grow some carrots and jump on a bike: it will make you happier and healthier. But it is
time to stop obsessing with how personally green we live – and start collectively taking
on corporate power.
Amazon, Facebook and Google: The new robber barons?
Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos in 2010. Credit:
/CreativeCommons/SteveJurvetson
Earlier this month Amazon,
announced its
plans to establish a second headquarters in North America. Rather than simply reveal which city would
become its second home, the Seattle-based tech company opted instead to open a bidding war. In an
eight page
document published on its website, Amazon outlined the criteria for prospective suitors, and
invited economic developers to submit proposals advocating for why their city or region should be
the host of the new location.
Its potential arrival comes with the claim that the company will invest more than $5 billion in
construction and generate up to 50,000 "high paying jobs." Mayors and governors, hard at work crafting
their bids, are no doubt salivating at the mere thought of such economic activity. Journalists and
editorial teams in eligible metropolises are also playing their parts, as newspapers have
published a series of articles and editorials
making the case for why
their city should be declared the winner.
Last Tuesday Bloomberg
reported that Boston was the early frontrunner, sending a wave of panic across the continent.
Much to the relief of the other contenders, Amazon quickly discredited the report as misinformation,
announcing in a series of
tweets on
Wednesday that it is "energized by the response from cities across [North America]" and that, contrary
to the rumors, there are currently no front-runners on their "equal playing field."
That Amazon is "energized" should come as no surprise. Most companies would also be energized
by the taxpayer-funded windfall that is likely coming its way. Reporters speculate that the winner
of the sweepstakes!in no small part to the bidding war format!could be forced to cough up hundreds
of millions of dollars in state and local subsidies for the privilege of hosting Amazon's expansion.
Amazon has long been the beneficiary of such subsidies, emerging in recent years as a
formidable opponent
to Walmart as the top recipient of corporate welfare. According to Good Jobs First, a Washington,
D.C. organization dedicated to corporate and government accountability, Amazon has received
more than $1 billion in
local and state subsidies since 2000. With a business plan dedicated to amassing long-term market
share in lieu of short-term profits, Amazon, under the leadership of its founder and chief executive,
Jeff Bezos, operates on razor-thin profit margins in most industries, while actually operating at
a loss in others. As such, these state and local subsidies have played an instrumental role in Amazon's
growth
Advocates of free market enterprise should be irate over the company's crony capitalist practices
and the cities and states that enable it. But more so than simply ruffling the feathers of the libertarian-minded,
Amazon's shameless solicitation for subsidies capped off a series of summer skirmishes in the Democratic
left's emerging war against monopolies.
Earlier this summer when Amazon announced its $13.7 billion purchase of Whole Foods, antitrust
advocates
called upon the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission's Antitrust Division to
block the sale and
update the United States government's legal definition of monopoly. Although the acquisition!which
was
approved in August!only gives Amazon a 1.5 percent market share in the grocery industry, it more
importantly provides the tech giant with access to more than 450 brick-and-mortar Whole Foods locations.
Critics say that these physical locations will
prove invaluable to its long term plan of economic dominance, and that it is but the latest advance
in the company's unprecedented control of the economy's
underlying infrastructure.
Google also found itself in the crosshairs of the left's anti-monopoly faction when, in late June,
the European Union imposed a $2.7 billion
fine against the tech company for anti-competitive search engine manipulation in violation of
its antitrust laws. The Open Markets Program of the New America Foundation subsequently published
a press release applauding the EU's decision. Two months later, the Open Markets Program was
axed . The former program director Barry Lynn
claims that his employers caved to pressure from a corporation that has donated more than $21
million to the New America Foundation. The fallout emboldened
journalists to share their experiences of being silenced by the tech giant, and underscores the
influence Google exerts over
think tanks and
academics
Most recently, Facebook faced criticism after it was
discovered that a Russian company with ties to the Kremlin purchased $100,000 in ads from the
social media company in an effort to influence the 2016 presidential election. Facebook, as a result,
has become the latest subject of interest in Robert Mueller's special investigation into Russian
interference in last fall's election. But regardless of whether the ads influenced the outcome, the
report elicited demands for transparency and oversight in a digital ad marketplace that Facebook,
along with Google,
dominates . By using highly sophisticated algorithms, Facebook and Google receive more than
60 percent of all digital ad revenue, threatening the financial solvency of publishers and creating
a host of economic incentives that
pollute editorial autonomy.
While the Democratic left!in an effort to rejuvenate its
populist soul !has been at the front lines in the war against these
modern-day robber barons, Stacy Mitchell, co-director of the Institute of Local Self-Reliance,
suggests that opposition to corporate consolidation need not be a partisan issue. In a piece published
in The Atlantic , Mitchell traces the bipartisan history of anti-monopoly sentiment in American
politics. She
writes :
If "monopoly" sounds like a word from another era, that's because, until recently, it was.
Throughout the middle of the 20th century, the term was frequently used in newspaper headlines,
campaign speeches, and State of the Union addresses delivered by Republican and Democratic presidents
alike. Breaking up too-powerful companies was a bipartisan goal and on the minds of many voters.
But, starting in the 1970s, the word retreated from the public consciousness. Not coincidentally,
at the same time, the enforcement of anti-monopoly policy grew increasingly toothless.
Although the modern Republican Party stands accused of cozying up with corporate interests, the
history of conservative thought has a rich intellectual tradition of being skeptical!if not hostile!towards
economic consolidation. For conservatives and libertarians wedded to the tenets of free market orthodoxy!or
for Democrats
dependent on campaign contributions from a donor class of Silicon Valley tycoons!redefining the
legal definition of monopoly and rekindling a bipartisan interest in antitrust enforcement are likely
non-starters.
But for conservatives willing to break from the principles of free market fundamentalism, the
papal
encyclicals of the Roman Catholic Church, the
distributist thought of Hilaire Belloc and G.K. Chesterton, the
social
criticism of Christopher Lasch, and the
observations of agrarian
essayist Wendell Berry provide an intellectual framework from which conservatives can critique and
combat concentrated economic power. With a respect for robust and resilient localities and a keen
understanding of the moral dangers posed by an economy perpetuated by consumerism and convenience,
these writers appeal to the moral imaginations of the reader, issuing warnings about the detrimental
effects that economic consolidation has on the person, the family, the community, and society at
large.
The events of this summer underscore the immense political power wielded by our economy's corporate
giants. To those who recognize the dangers posed by our age of consolidation, the skirmishes from
this summer could serve as a rallying cry in a bipartisan war for independence from our corporate
crown.
Daniel Kishi is an editorial assistant at The American Conservative . Follow him on
Twitter at @DanielMKishi
"... I argue here that it's the abuse of mathematics by Neoclassical economists -- who practice what I have dubbed "Mythematics" rather than Mathematics--and that some phenomena are uncovered by mathematical logic that can't be discovered by verbal logic alone. ..."
"... A lady in the audience named Barb Jacobson suggested that using the name Neo-Classical gives it a certain degree of cache and wants you guys to start calling it for what it is: "Scorched Earth Economics." What a great name to use and doesn't it ring true? ..."
This is the brief talk I gave at a conference celebrating 25 years of the
Critical Realist seminar series at Cambridge University. Critical realists argue against the
use of mathematics in economics; I argue here that it's the abuse of mathematics by Neoclassical
economists -- who practice what I have dubbed "Mythematics" rather than Mathematics--and that some
phenomena are uncovered by mathematical logic that can't be discovered by verbal logic alone.
I give the example of my own model of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis, which revealed
the possibility of a "Great Moderation" preceding a "Great Recession" before either event had happened.
David Milburn, September 12, 2015 at 9:38 am
Steve,
Last week Prof Bill Mitchell was in London where he gave a talk on re-framing the language
used in the media that carried on the myth of the mainstream groupthink. A lady in the audience
named Barb Jacobson suggested that using the name Neo-Classical gives it a certain degree of
cache and wants you guys to start calling it for what it is: "Scorched Earth Economics." What
a great name to use and doesn't it ring true? Barb Jacobson is spot on!
Sue Madden, September 13, 2015 at 8:28 am
Hi Steve,
I was really amused to see an interview a while back in the New Scientist, with the "research
chief" (!!) at the B of E. If you haven't seen it, you really must:
Opinion Interview with Andy Haldane: "Sackcloth and Ashes on Thread needle Street" New Scientist
25 March 2015
Corbyn was elected leader!!!! Now the sparks will fly. At least a public debate worthy of
the name might at last be heard in our sad country.
Thanks for your work in trying to enlighten us!!
Sue.
It looks like Trump initially has a four point platform that was anti-neoliberal in its essence:
Non-interventionism. End the wars for the expansion of American neoliberal empire.
Détente was Russia. Abolishing NATO and saving money on this. Let European defend themselves.
Etc.
No to neoliberal globalization. Abolishing of transnational treaties that favor large
multinationals such as TPP, NAFTA, etc. Tariffs and other means of punishing corporations who
move production overseas. Repatriation of foreign profits to the USA and closing of tax holes
which allow to keep profits in tax heavens without paying a dime to the US government.
No to neoliberal "transnational job market" -- free movement of labor. Criminal prosecution
and deportation of illegal immigrants. Cutting intake of refugees. Curtailing legal immigration,
especially fake and abused programs like H1B. Making it more difficult for people from countries
with substantial terrorist risk to enter the USA including temporary prohibition of issuing visas
from certain (pretty populous) Muslim countries.
No to the multiculturalism. Stress on "Christian past" and "white heritage" of American
society and the role of whites in building the country. Rejection of advertising "special rights"
of minorities such as black population, LGBT, etc. Promotion them as "identity wedges" in elections
was the trick so dear to DemoRats and, especially Hillary and Obama.
That means that Trump election platform on an intuitive level has caught several important problem
that were created in the US society by dismantling of the "New Deal" and rampant neoliberalism practiced
since Reagan ("Greed is good" mantra).
Of cause, after election he decided to practice the same "bait and switch" maneuver as Obama.
Generally he folded in less then 100 days. Not without help from DemoRats (Neoliberal Democrats)
which created a witch hunt over "Russian ties" with their dreams of the second Watergate.
But in any case, this platform still provides a path to election victory in any forthcoming election,
as problems listed are real , are not solved, and are extremely important for lower 90% of Americans.
Tulsi Gabbard so far is that only democratic politician that IMHO qualifies. Sanders is way too old
and somewhat inconsistent on No.1.
Frank was the first to note this "revolutionary" part of Tramp platform:
Last week, I decided to watch several hours of Trump speeches for myself. I saw the man ramble
and boast and threaten and even seem to gloat when protesters were ejected from the arenas in
which he spoke. I was disgusted by these things, as I have been disgusted by Trump for 20 years.
But I also noticed something surprising. In each of the speeches I watched, Trump spent a good
part of his time talking about an entirely legitimate issue, one that could even be called left-wing.
Yes, Donald Trump talked about trade. In fact, to judge by how much time he spent talking about
it, trade may be his single biggest concern – not white supremacy. Not even his plan to build
a wall along the Mexican border, the issue that first won him political fame.
He did it again during the debate on 3 March: asked about his political excommunication by
Mitt Romney, he chose to pivot and talk about trade.
It seems to obsess him: the destructive free-trade deals our leaders have made, the many companies
that have moved their production facilities to other lands, the phone calls he will make to those
companies' CEOs in order to threaten them with steep tariffs unless they move back to the US.
"... Why it is bizarre. This is the political regime we are living in: there are now two war parties in the USA now: DemoRats and Repugs, not only one as in good old days. ..."
Pentagon spokesman Captain Jeff Davis said in an official statement:
"Russian forces were notified in advance of the strike using the established
deconfliction line. U.S. military planners took precautions to minimize
risk to Russian or Syrian personnel located at the airfield."
I guess they could say this was the right thing to do...
"It's always bizarre when liberals turn all hawkish and warmongering."
Why it is bizarre. This is the political regime we are living in:
there are now two war parties in the USA now: DemoRats and Repugs, not only
one as in good old days.
How Hillary is different from Senator McShame is unclear to me.
"... In all those discussions, be it Obamacare, neoclassical economics, neoliberalism, globalization, automation, or supposed Russian interference in elections the key question is how to effectively resist truth-killing efforts of various agencies not interested in revealing the truth on the particular subject. ..."
"... Now those disinformation efforts can be easily amplified via Internet, which serves as a kind of echo-chamber. For example, just a half-dozen of like-minded people can drive Internet discussion in the necessary direction and spam or smear opponents. Essentially such informal cliques are quite capable to dominate discussion in popular blogs. ..."
"... The problem is fundamental, and relates to a broad spectrum of policy issues both foreign and domestic, because truth - factual reality - is a necessary foundation to consider and evaluate and debate policy on any subject. ..."
"... Crushing the truth means not just our having to endure any one misdirected policy; it means losing the ability even to address policy intelligently. ..."
In all those discussions, be it Obamacare, neoclassical economics, neoliberalism, globalization,
automation, or supposed Russian interference in elections the key question is how to effectively
resist truth-killing efforts of various agencies not interested in revealing the truth on the
particular subject.
Now those disinformation efforts can be easily amplified via Internet, which serves as
a kind of echo-chamber. For example, just a half-dozen of like-minded people can drive Internet
discussion in the necessary direction and spam or smear opponents. Essentially such informal cliques
are quite capable to dominate discussion in popular blogs.
Paul R. Pillar in his May 2 essay in National interest provided an interesting overview of
this problem. While his analyses is related to Trump climate change policies some points have
wider applicability:
The problem is fundamental, and relates to a broad spectrum of policy issues both foreign
and domestic, because truth - factual reality - is a necessary foundation to consider and evaluate
and debate policy on any subject.
Crushing the truth means not just our having to endure any one misdirected policy; it
means losing the ability even to address policy intelligently.
To the extent that falsehood is successfully instilled in the minds of enough people, the
political system loses what would otherwise be its ability to provide a check on policy that
is bad policy because it is inconsistent with factual reality.
"... "Here is my two cents: these three researchers may have just put the nail in the coffin of using production-side measures of the free economy-and that is not really all that bad. GDP is a measure of total production. It was ever meant to be a measure of how well-off society has become. ..."
"... While introduction of the concept of GDP and systematic its measurement (with all its warts, especially in calculation of "real GDP") was a great achievement, absolutization of GDP under neoliberalism and, especially, false equivalence between GDP growth and growth of the standard of living of population are dangerous neoliberal myths. ..."
"... We should fight neoliberal cult of GDP. ..."
"... Distinctions must be kept in mind between quantity and quality of growth, between costs and returns, and between the short and long run. Goals for more growth should specify more growth of what and for what. ..."
Interesting post at Digitopoly by Shane Greenstein
"Here is my two cents: these three researchers may have just put the nail in the coffin
of using production-side measures of the free economy-and that is not really all that bad. GDP
is a measure of total production. It was ever meant to be a measure of how well-off society has
become.
More to the point, maybe it is time to focus on the demand-side measures of free goods. In
other words, you get a lot more for your Internet subscription, but nothing in GDP reflects that.
For example, the price index for Internet services should reflect qualitative improvement in user
experiences, and needs to improve."
While introduction of the concept of GDP and systematic its measurement (with all its warts,
especially in calculation of "real GDP") was a great achievement, absolutization of GDP under
neoliberalism and, especially, false equivalence between GDP growth and growth of the standard
of living of population are dangerous neoliberal myths.
We should fight neoliberal cult of GDP.
Simon Kuznets, the economist who developed the first comprehensive set of measures of national
income, stated in his first report to the US Congress in 1934, in a section titled "Uses and Abuses
of National Income Measurements":
The valuable capacity of the human mind to simplify a complex situation in a compact characterization
becomes dangerous when not controlled in terms of definitely stated criteria. With quantitative
measurements especially, the definiteness of the result suggests, often misleadingly, a precision
and simplicity in the outlines of the object measured. Measurements of national income are subject
to this type of illusion and resulting abuse, especially since they deal with matters that are
the center of conflict of opposing social groups where the effectiveness of an argument is often
contingent upon oversimplification. [...]
All these qualifications upon estimates of national income as an index of productivity are
just as important when income measurements are interpreted from the point of view of economic
welfare. But in the latter case additional difficulties will be suggested to anyone who wants
to penetrate below the surface of total figures and market values. Economic welfare cannot be
adequately measured unless the personal distribution of income is known. And no income measurement
undertakes to estimate the reverse side of income, that is, the intensity and unpleasantness of
effort going into the earning of income. The welfare of a nation can, therefore, scarcely be inferred
from a measurement of national income as defined above.
In 1962, Kuznets stated:
Distinctions must be kept in mind between quantity and quality of growth, between costs
and returns, and between the short and long run. Goals for more growth should specify more growth
of what and for what.
"... Language is important, but it can be slippery. Consider that the phrase, the American Dream, has changed radically through the years. Mr. Trump and Ben Carson, the secretary of housing and urban development, have suggested it involves owning a beautiful home and a roaring business, but it wasn't always so. Instead, in the 1930s, it meant freedom, mutual respect and equality of opportunity. It had more to do with morality than material success. ..."
"... This drift in meaning is significant... ..."
"... Survival and security are the bottom 2 levels on Maslow's pyramid. If that's at the top of the wish list it doesn't speak well of the environment where the list is made. I would say most people are aiming for levels 3-5, taking 1-2 for "granted" - but while level 1 (survival) is pretty much assured unless you get sick or are shot by a cop, level 2 is increasingly brittle. ..."
"... In different US locations, I heard my share of "living the dream" in response to "how are you" from retail clerks - which is obviously ironic and shows that people are well aware of it just being a narrative. It also reminds me of a quip in a Dilbert cartoon many years ago - "you only have the right to pursue happiness, not to actually achieve it". ..."
"... And what George Carlin had to say on the topic. ..."
They are ringing words, but what do they mean? Language is important, but it can be
slippery. Consider that the phrase, the American Dream, has changed radically through the
years. Mr. Trump and Ben Carson, the secretary of housing and urban development, have suggested it
involves owning a beautiful home and a roaring business, but it wasn't always so. Instead, in
the 1930s, it meant freedom, mutual respect and equality of opportunity. It had more to do with
morality than material success.
Northrop Grumman lays off 51 state workers under contract with VITA
By MICHAEL MARTZ Richmond Times-Dispatch
Jun 16, 2015
... While Northrop Grumman made the decision on the layoffs, VITA informed the affected workers because
they are state employees and placed them on leave through June 30. The state Department of Human
Resources Management assisted the technology agency with the layoffs through its shared services
center.
Affected employees will be offered state severance packages based on years of service, early retirement
options, and "access to outplacement services."...
What you describe in the first sentence is only one of many interpretations. But the (al)lure
of the meme is that the interpretation is open-ended (one could also say "not well defined"; but
isn't that what freedom is about - that the outcome and the way of achieving it are not rigidly
prescribed?).
Survival and security are the bottom 2 levels on Maslow's pyramid. If that's at the top of
the wish list it doesn't speak well of the environment where the list is made. I would say most
people are aiming for levels 3-5, taking 1-2 for "granted" - but while level 1 (survival) is pretty
much assured unless you get sick or are shot by a cop, level 2 is increasingly brittle.
The environment in a Detroit tenement grows a shorter Maslow's pyramid than Santa Clara Valley
suburbs. Central VA is somewhere in between where the highest aspiration of the vast majority
of people is to belong and have the esteem of others. Self-actualization and transcendence are
not even things here save for a rare few strangers in a strange land.
Well, all these terms are subject to interpretation and exist in degrees. Obviously survival is
a strong prerequisite for the higher levels, but one can partially achieve higher levels without
having achieved lower levels fully. At least for a while; or having achieved a lower level may
be illusory (this was my actual point).
I would dispute that "almost everybody" cannot achieve esteem/self-actualization - at least
for a while. How strong/persistent need the achievement be to count?
Then there is even the fundamental issue of knowing whether a level has really been "permanently"
secured. E.g. safety - which can usually only be judged by demonstration of its absence.
No he actually doesn't. It is just a BS phrase/meme, similar to "hard work". It is just signaling that one cares for/appreciates general virtues and the audience's desire
for recognition and happiness. In the case of "hard work", perhaps also with the aspect of pushing
role model narratives.
In different US locations, I heard my share of "living the dream" in response to "how are you"
from retail clerks - which is obviously ironic and shows that people are well aware of it just
being a narrative.
It also reminds me of a quip in a Dilbert cartoon many years ago - "you only have the right
to pursue happiness, not to actually achieve it".
George Monbiot's the missing chapter: a key to understanding the politics of the past half century.
To read Nancy MacLean's new book,
Democracy in Chains : The Deep History of the Radical Right's Stealth Plan for America, is to
see what was previously invisible.
The history professor's work on the subject began by accident. In 2013 she stumbled across a deserted
clapboard house on the campus of George Mason University in Virginia. It was stuffed with the unsorted
archives of a man who had died that year whose name is probably unfamiliar to you: James McGill Buchanan.
She says the first thing she picked up was a stack of confidential letters concerning millions of
dollars transferred to the university by the billionaire
Charles Koch .
Her discoveries in that house of horrors reveal how Buchanan, in collaboration with business tycoons
and the institutes they founded, developed a hidden programme for suppressing democracy on behalf
of the very rich. The programme is now reshaping politics, and not just in the US.
Buchanan was strongly influenced by both the
neoliberalism of Friedrich Hayek and Ludwig von Mises , and the property supremacism of John
C Calhoun, who argued in the first half of the 19th century that freedom consists of the absolute
right to use your property (including your slaves) however you may wish; any institution that impinges
on this right is an agent of oppression, exploiting men of property on behalf of the undeserving
masses.
James Buchanan brought these influences together to create what he called
public
choice theory . He argued that a society could not be considered free unless every citizen has
the right to veto its decisions. What he meant by this was that no one should be taxed against their
will. But the rich were being exploited by people who use their votes to demand money that others
have earned, through involuntary taxes to support public spending and welfare. Allowing workers to
form trade unions and imposing graduated income taxes were forms of "differential or discriminatory
legislation" against the owners of capital.
Any clash between "freedom" (allowing the rich to do as they wish) and democracy should be resolved
in favour of freedom. In his book
The Limits of Liberty
, he noted that "despotism may be the only organisational alternative to the political structure
that we observe." Despotism in defence of freedom.
His prescription was a "constitutional revolution": creating irrevocable restraints to limit democratic
choice. Sponsored throughout his working life by wealthy foundations, billionaires and corporations,
he developed a theoretical account of what this constitutional revolution would look like, and a
strategy for implementing it.
He explained how attempts to desegregate schooling in the American south could be frustrated by
setting up a network of state-sponsored private schools. It was he who first proposed privatizing
universities, and imposing full tuition fees on students: his original purpose was to crush student
activism. He urged privatization of social security and many other functions of the state. He sought
to break the links between people and government, and demolish trust in public institutions.
He aimed, in short, to save capitalism from democracy.
In 1980, he was able to put the programme into action. He was invited to
Chile , where he helped the
Pinochet dictatorship write a new constitution, which, partly through the clever devices Buchanan
proposed, has proved impossible to reverse entirely. Amid the torture and killings, he advised the
government to extend programmes of privatisation, austerity, monetary restraint, deregulation and
the destruction of trade unions: a package that helped trigger economic collapse in 1982.
None of this troubled the Swedish Academy, which through his devotee at Stockholm University Assar
Lindbeck in 1986 awarded James Buchanan the
Nobel memorial prize for economics . It is one of several decisions that have turned this prize
toxic.
Koch officials said that the network's midterm budget for policy and politics is between $300m
and $400m, but donors are demanding legislative progress
But his power really began to be felt when Koch, currently the seventh richest man in the US,
decided that Buchanan held the key to the transformation he sought. Koch saw even such ideologues
as Milton Friedman and Alan Greenspan as "sellouts", as they sought to improve the efficiency of
government
rather
than destroy it altogether . But Buchanan took it all the way.
MacLean says that Charles Koch poured millions into Buchanan's work at George Mason University,
whose law and economics departments look as much like corporate-funded thinktanks as they do academic
faculties. He employed the economist to select the revolutionary "cadre" that would implement his
programme (Murray Rothbard, at the Cato Institute that Koch founded, had urged the billionaire to
study Lenin's techniques and apply them to the libertarian cause). Between them, they began to develop
a programme for changing the rules.
The papers Nancy MacLean discovered show that Buchanan saw stealth as crucial. He told his collaborators
that "conspiratorial secrecy is at all times essential". Instead of revealing their ultimate destination,
they would proceed by incremental steps. For example, in seeking to destroy the social security system,
they would claim to be saving it, arguing that it would fail without a series of radical "reforms".
(The same argument is used by those attacking the NHS). Gradually they would build a "counter-intelligentsia",
allied to a "vast network of political power" that would become the new establishment.
Through the network of thinktanks that Koch and other billionaires have sponsored, through their
transformation of the Republican party, and the hundreds of millions they have poured into state
congressional and judicial races, through the mass colonisation of Trump's administration
by members of this network and lethally effective campaigns against everything from public health
to action on climate change, it would be fair to say that Buchanan's vision is maturing in the US.
But not just there. Reading this book felt like a demisting of the window through which I see
British politics.
The bonfire of regulations highlighted by the Grenfell Tower disaster, the destruction of state
architecture through austerity, the budgeting rules, the dismantling of public services, tuition
fees and the control of schools: all these measures follow Buchanan's programme to the letter. I
wonder how many people are aware that David Cameron's
free schools project
stands in a tradition designed to hamper racial desegregation in the American south.
In one respect, Buchanan was right: there is an inherent conflict between what he called "economic
freedom" and political liberty. Complete freedom for billionaires means poverty, insecurity, pollution
and collapsing public services for everyone else. Because we will not vote for this, it can be delivered
only through deception and authoritarian control. The choice we face is between unfettered capitalism
and democracy. You cannot have both.
Buchanan's programme is a prescription for totalitarian capitalism. And his disciples have only
begun to implement it. But at least, thanks to MacLean's discoveries, we can now apprehend the agenda.
One of the first rules of politics is, know your enemy. We're getting there.
"... Repeat mechanically your assumptions and suggestions, diminish the opportunity for communicating dissent and opposition. This is the formula for political conditioning of the masses. ..."
"... I-dont-care reaction ..."
"... Confusing a targeted audience is one of the necessary ingredients for effective mind control." ..."
"... Ennui of the bureaucrat, entropy of an inability to change, and the credibility trap of failed ideologies in a failing empire. ..."
"... Not so for the financiers and their minions. They will not be quiet, alas. The more badly they behave, the louder they seem to become. ..."
"... Although a child is limited by lack of faculty and experience, the speculator is hampered by vanity, a self-imposed lack of human development, and an almost obsessive preoccupation with drinking, favorite objects, and teats. ..."
"He who dictates and formulates the words and phrases we use, he who is master of the press and radio, is master of the
mind. Repeat mechanically your assumptions and suggestions, diminish the opportunity for communicating dissent and
opposition. This is the formula for political conditioning of the masses.
The big lie and monotonously repeated
nonsense have more emotional appeal in a cold war than logic and reason.
The continual intrusion into our minds of the hammering noises of arguments and propaganda can lead to two kinds of
reactions. It may lead to apathy and indifference, the I-dont-care reaction, or to a more intensified
desire to study and to understand. Unfortunately, the first reaction is the more popular one. Confusing a targeted
audience is one of the necessary ingredients for effective mind control."
Joost Meerloo, The Rape of the Mind
There is going to be another financial crisis within the next two years, and it will be global, and it may be much more
consequential than the other two or three we have seen since the Fed embarked on this course of its long and checkered
career.
It is also avoidable, and in their quiet, private moments the really good economists can see it coming. Why don't they
say anything? Ennui of the bureaucrat, entropy of an inability to change, and the credibility trap of failed ideologies
in a failing empire.
They did not get to where they are by 'rocking the boat.' And so they will be quiet, unless they see some advantage
in it for them, most ordinarily in a pay for say.
Not so for the financiers and their minions. They will not be quiet, alas. The more badly they behave, the louder
they seem to become.
They are short term, and almost infantile in the self-centered reasoning. Although a child is limited by lack of
faculty and experience, the speculator is hampered by vanity, a self-imposed lack of human development, and an almost obsessive
preoccupation with drinking, favorite objects, and teats.
They see something and they want it, they know only what they can feel in the desire of the moment, morally they are
undeveloped, and when they make a mess they cry loudly, until an adult comes to clean it up for them. But unlike a child
they have no gratitude, no sense of their own dependency, or natural affection for others.
"... Comparative advantage is an absurdity. Protectionism is the only way to wealth, yet economists brainwashed generations of 17 and 18 year olds to believe that up was down and free trade would help the US. ..."
"... This is a new "flat earth" cult. And pretty well paid one: academic economists recently became something like lackeys of financial oligarchy and get some crump from the financial oligarchy table in return to promoting neo-classical economics, as a valuable for neoliberals pseudo-science. ..."
"... People who "do not fit" are filtered at early stages, much like in political parties. Nepotism is another factor. Having relatives in high positions (like is the case with Summers), being member of the dominant ethnic clan, or being a friend of an influential economist (like academic Mafiosi Andrei Shleifer) greatly helps... ..."
"... The most interesting part about this pseudoscience is how well it fits together (reminding me Marxism, to which it was a reaction). ..."
Will the American Economic Association ever apologize to the American people
for helping to destroy the country with their absurd, simple-minded free
trade preaching?
Comparative advantage is an absurdity. Protectionism is the only
way to wealth, yet economists brainwashed generations of 17 and 18 year
olds to believe that up was down and free trade would help the US.
AEA should toast itself in the ruins of Ohio, North Carolina or Iowa
- pick any one of the thousands of ruined cities to gloat over.
libezkova -> Will US Economists apologize for destroying the US? Free trade
ruined America,
April 11, 2017 at 04:48 PM
You are simply naïve.
This is a new "flat earth" cult. And pretty well paid one: academic
economists recently became something like lackeys of financial oligarchy
and get some crump from the financial oligarchy table in return to promoting
neo-classical economics, as a valuable for neoliberals pseudo-science.
Tremendous value of neoclassical economics for neoliberals is that they
can use mathiness (trying to imitate physics) to obscure the promotions
of neoliberal thinking. In fact, neoclassical economics is the major tool
of indoctrination into "free market" nonsense of university students.
People who "do not fit" are filtered at early stages, much like in
political parties. Nepotism is another factor. Having relatives in high
positions (like is the case with Summers), being member of the dominant
ethnic clan, or being a friend of an influential economist (like academic
Mafiosi Andrei Shleifer) greatly helps...
People who do not fit but have tremendous talent are often suppressed.
Like was the case with Hyman Minsky (and he was lucky that his career was
at late stages during the full triumph of neoliberalism -- he managed to
get a tenured professor position in 1965 when he was 46)
The most interesting part about this pseudoscience is how well it
fits together (reminding me Marxism, to which it was a reaction).
Set of neoclassical myths such as "efficient market hypothesis", "rational
expectations", "generalized stochastic equilibrium", "invisible hand", comprise
a pretty coherent "secular religion". It may even have some minor value
as a mathematical theory of some fictitious economic space (almost like
in a computer game like Civilization) that never existed and will never
exist.
But it is sold differently and tends to produce predictions and prescriptions
(highly politicized in their nature) in line with neoliberal thinking. That's
why it is maintained and promoted.
So expecting them to apologize is nonsense.
You can benefit from re-reading recent discussion of Karl Polanyi famous
book "The Great Transformation" in this blog
Another interesting question is how neoliberalism and neo-classical economics
survived the financial meltdown. Here Professor Phillip Mirowski has some
interesting insights:
"... Consumerism fills the social void. But far from curing the disease of isolation, it intensifies social comparison to the point at which, having consumed all else, we start to prey upon ourselves. Social media brings us together and drives us apart, allowing us precisely to quantify our social standing, and to see that other people have more friends and followers than we do. ..."
"... A recent survey in England suggests that one in four women between 16 and 24 have harmed themselves, and one in eight now suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder. Anxiety, depression, phobias or obsessive compulsive disorder affect 26% of women in this age group. This is what a public health crisis looks like. ..."
"... Opioids relieve both physical agony and the distress of separation. Perhaps this explains the link between social isolation and drug addiction. ..."
"... Children who experience emotional neglect, according to some findings, suffer worse mental health consequences than children suffering both emotional neglect and physical abuse: hideous as it is, violence involves attention and contact. Self-harm is often used as an attempt to alleviate distress: another indication that physical pain is not as bad as emotional pain. As the prison system knows only too well, one of the most effective forms of torture is solitary confinement. ..."
"... It's unsurprising that social isolation is strongly associated with depression, suicide, anxiety, insomnia, fear and the perception of threat. It's more surprising to discover the range of physical illnesses it causes or exacerbates. Dementia, high blood pressure, heart disease, strokes, lowered resistance to viruses, even accidents are more common among chronically lonely people. Loneliness has a comparable impact on physical health to smoking 15 cigarettes a day: it appears to raise the risk of early death by 26%. This is partly because it enhances production of the stress hormone cortisol, which suppresses the immune system. ..."
"... Neoliberalism is a project that explicitly aims, and has achieved, the undermining and elimination of social networks in favour of market competition ..."
"... In practice, loosening social and legal institutions has reduced social security (in the general sense rather than simply welfare payments) and encouraged the limitation of social interaction to money based activity ..."
"... All powerful institutions have a vested interest in keeping us atomized and individualistic. The gangs at the top don't want competition. They're afraid of us. In particular, they're afraid of men organising into gangs. That's where this very paper comes in ..."
"... The alienation genie was out of the bottle with the beginning of the Industrial Revolution and mass migration to cities began and we abandoned living in village communities ..."
"... Neoliberalism expressly encourages 'atomisation'- it is all about reducing human interaction to markets. And so this is just one of the reasons that neoliberalism is such a bunk philosophy. ..."
"... My stab at an answer would first question the notion that we are engaging in anything. That presupposes we are making the choices. Those who set out the options are the ones that make the choices. We are being engaged by the grotesquely privileged and the pathologically greedy in an enterprise that profits them still further. It suits the 1% very well strategically, for obvious reasons, that the 99% don't swap too many ideas with each other. ..."
"... According to Robert Putnam, as societies become more ethnically diverse they lose social capital, contributing to the type of isolation and loneliness which George describes. Doesn't sound as evil as neoliberalism I suppose. ..."
"... multiculturalism is a direct result of Neoliberalism. The market rules and people are secondary. Everything must be done for business owners, and that everything means access to cheap labor. ..."
"... I'd have thought what he really wants to say is that loneliness as a phenomenon in modern Western society arises out of an intent on the part of our political and social elites to divide us all into competing against one another, as individuals and as members of groups, all the better to keep us under control and prevent us from working together to claim our fair share of resources. ..."
"... Has it occurred to you that the collapse in societal values has allowed 'neo-liberalism' to take hold? ..."
"... No. It has been the concentrated propaganda of the "free" press. Rupert Murdoch in particular, but many other well-funded organisations working in the background over 50 years. They are winning. ..."
"... We're fixated on a magical, abstract concept called "the economy". Everything must be done to help "the economy", even if this means adults working through their weekends, neglecting their children, neglecting their elderly parents, eating at their desks, getting diabetes, breaking down from stress, and giving up on a family life. ..."
"... You can make a reasonable case that 'Neoliberalism' expects that every interaction, including between individuals, can be reduced to a financial one. ..."
"... As can be seen from many of the posts, neo-liberalism depends on, and fosters, ignorance, an inability to see things from historical and different perspectives and social and intellectual disciplines. On a sociological level how other societies are arranged throws up interesting comparisons. Scandanavian countries, which have mostly avoided neo-liberalism by and large, are happier, healthier places to live. America and eastern countries arranged around neo-liberal, market driven individualism, are unhappy places, riven with mental and physical health problems and many more social problems of violence, crime and suicide. ..."
"... The people who fosted this this system onto us, are now either very old or dead. We're living in the shadow of their revolutionary transformation of our more equitable post-war society. Hayek, Friedman, Keith Joseph, Thatcher, Greenspan and tangentially but very influentially Ayn Rand. Although a remainder (I love the wit of the term 'Remoaner') , Brexit can be better understood in the context of the death-knell of neoliberalism. ..."
"... Criticism of his hypotheses on this thread (where articualted at all) focus on the existence of solitude and loneliness prior to neo liberalism, which seems to me to be to deliberately miss his point: this was formerly a minor phenomenon, yet is now writ on an incredible scale - and it is a social phenomenon particular to those western economies whose elites have most enthusiastically embraced neo liberalism. ..."
"... We all want is to: (and feel we have the right to) wear the best clothes, have the foreign holidays, own the latest tech and eat the finest foods. At the same time our rights have increased and awareness of our responsibilities have minimized. The execution of common sense and an awareness that everything that goes wrong will always be someone else fault. ..."
"... We are not all special snowflakes, princesses or worthy of special treatment, but we act like self absorbed, entitled individuals. Whether that's entitled to benefits, the front of the queue or bumped into first because its our birthday! ..."
"... Unhealthy social interaction, yes. You can never judge what is natural to humans based on contemporary Britain. Anthropologists repeatedly find that what we think natural is merely a social construct created by the system we are subject to. ..."
"... We are becoming fearful of each other and I believe the insecurity we feel plays a part in this. ..."
"... We have become so disconnected from ourselves and focused on battling to stay afloat. Having experienced periods of severe stress due to lack of money I couldn't even begin to think about how I felt, how happy I was, what I really wanted to do with my life. I just had to pay my landlord, pay the bills and try and put some food on my table so everything else was totally neglected. ..."
"... We need a radical change of political thinking to focus on quality of life rather than obsession with the size of our economy. High levels of immigration of people who don't really integrate into their local communities has fractured our country along with the widening gap between rich and poor. Governments only see people in terms of their "economic value" - hence mothers being driven out to work, children driven into daycare and the elderly driven into care homes. Britain is becoming a soulless place - even our great British comedy is on the decline. ..."
"... Quality of life is far more important than GDP I agree but it is also far more important than inequality. ..."
"... Thatcher was only responsible for "letting it go" in Britain in 1980, but actually it was already racing ahead around the world. ..."
"... Eric Fromm made similar arguments to Monbiot about the psychological impact of modern capitalism (Fear of Freedom and The Sane Society) - although the Freudian element is a tad outdated. However, for all the faults of modern society, I'd rather be unhappy now than in say, Victorian England. Similarly, life in the West is preferable to the obvious alternatives. ..."
"... Whilst it's very important to understand how neoliberalism, the ideology that dare not speak it's name, derailed the general progress in the developed world. It's also necessary to understand that the roots this problem go much further back. Not merely to the start of the industrial revolution, but way beyond that. It actually began with the first civilizations when our societies were taken over by powerful rulers, and they essentially started to farm the people they ruled like cattle. On the one hand they declared themselves protector of their people, whilst ruthlessly exploiting them for their own political gain. I use the livestock farming analogy, because that explains what is going on. ..."
"... Neo-liberalism allows psychopaths to flourish, and it has been argued by Robert Hare that they are disproportionately represented in the highest echelons of society. So people who lack empathy and emotional attachment are probably weilding a significant amount of influence over the way our economy and society is organised. Is it any wonder that they advocate an economic model which is most conducive to their success? Things like job security, rigged markets, unions, and higher taxes on the rich simply get in their way. ..."
"... . Data suggests that inequality has widened massively over the last 30 years ( https://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/infographic-income-inequality-uk ) - as has social mobility ( https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2012/may/22/social-mobility-data-charts ). Homelessness has risen substantially since 1979. ..."
"... As a director and CEO of an organisation employing several hundred people I became aware that 40% of the staff lived alone and that the workplace was important to them not only for work but also for interacting with their colleagues socially . ..."
"... A thoughtful article. But the rich and powerful will ignore it; their doing very well out of neo liberalism thank you. Meanwhile many of those whose lives are affected by it don't want to know - they're happy with their bigger TV screen. Which of course is what the neoliberals want, 'keep the people happy and in the dark'. An old Roman tactic - when things weren't going too well for citizens and they were grumbling the leaders just extended the 'games'. Evidently it did the trick ..."
"... Sounds like the inevitable logical outcome of a society where the predator sociopathic and their scared prey are all that is allowed. This dynamic dualistic tautology, the slavish terrorised to sleep and bullying narcissistic individual, will always join together to protect their sick worldview by pathologising anything that will threaten their hegemony of power abuse: compassion, sensitivity, moral conscience, altruism and the immediate effects of the ruthless social effacement or punishment of the same ie human suffering. ..."
"... "Alienation, in all areas, has reached unprecedented heights; the social machinery for deluding consciousnesses in the interest of the ruling class has been perfected as never before. The media are loaded with upscale advertising identifying sophistication with speciousness. Television, in constant use, obliterates the concept under the image and permanently feeds a baseless credulity for events and history. Against the will of many students, school doesn't develop the highly cultivated critical capacities that a real sovereignty of the people would require. And so on. ..."
"... There's no question - neoliberalism has been wrenching society apart. It's not as if the prime movers of this ideology were unaware of the likely outcome viz. "there is no such thing as society" (Thatcher). Actually in retrospect the whole zeitgeist from the late 70s emphasised the atomised individual separated from the whole. Dawkins' "The Selfish Gene" (1976) may have been influential in creating that climate. ..."
"... I would add that the basic concepts of the Neoliberal New world order are fundamentally Evil, from the control of world population through supporting of strife starvation and war to financial inducements of persons in positions of power. Let us not forget the training of our younger members of our society who have been induced to a slavish love of technology. ..."
"... The kind of personal freedom that you say goes hand in hand with capitalism is an illusion for the majority of people. It holds up the prospect of that kind of freedom, but only a minority get access to it. ..."
"... Problems in society are not solved by having a one hour a week class on "self esteem". In fact self-esteem and self-worth comes from the things you do. ..."
"... Neoliberalism is the bastard child of globalization which in effect is Americanization. The basic premise is the individual is totally reliant on the corporate world state aided by a process of fear inducing mechanisms, pharmacology is one of the tools. No community no creativity no free thinking. Poded sealed and cling filmed a quasi existence. ..."
"... Having grown up during the Thatcher years, I entirely agree that neoliberalism has divided society by promoting individual self-optimisation at the expensive of everyone else. ..."
"... There is no such thing as a free-market society. Your society of 'self-interest' is really a state supported oligarchy. If you really want to live in a society where there is literally no state and a more or less open market try Somalia or a Latin American city run by drug lords - but even then there are hierarchies, state involvement, militias. ..."
"... Furthermore, a society in which people are encouraged to be narrowly selfish is just plain uncivilized. Since when have sociopathy and barbarism been something to aspire to? ..."
"... Why don't we explore some of the benefits?.. Following the long list of some the diseases, loneliness can inflict on individuals, there must be a surge in demand for all sort of medications; anti-depressants must be topping the list. There is a host many other anti-stress treatments available of which Big Pharma must be carving the lion's share. Examine the micro-economic impact immediately following a split or divorce. There is an instant doubling on the demand for accommodation, instant doubling on the demand for electrical and household items among many other products and services. But the icing on the cake and what is really most critical for Neoliberalism must be this: With the morale barometer hitting the bottom, people will be less likely to think of a better future, and therefore, less likely to protest. In fact, there is nothing left worth protecting. ..."
"... Your freedom has been curtailed. Your rights are evaporating in front of your eyes. And Best of all, from the authorities' perspective, there is no relationship to defend and there is no family to protect. If you have a job, you want to keep, you must prove your worthiness every day to 'a company'. ..."
What greater indictment of a system could there be than an epidemic of mental
illness? Yet plagues of anxiety, stress, depression, social phobia, eating disorders,
self-harm and loneliness now strike people down all over the world. The latest,
catastrophic figures for children's mental health in England reflect a global
crisis.
There are plenty of secondary reasons for this distress, but it seems to
me that the underlying cause is everywhere the same: human beings, the ultrasocial
mammals, whose brains are wired to respond to other people, are being peeled
apart. Economic and technological change play a major role, but so does ideology.
Though our wellbeing is inextricably linked to the lives of others, everywhere
we are told that we will prosper through competitive self-interest and extreme
individualism.
In Britain, men who have spent their entire lives in quadrangles – at school,
at college, at the bar, in parliament – instruct us to stand on our own two
feet. The education system becomes more brutally competitive by the year. Employment
is a fight to the near-death with a multitude of other desperate people chasing
ever fewer jobs. The modern overseers of the poor ascribe individual blame to
economic circumstance. Endless competitions on television feed impossible aspirations
as real opportunities contract.
Consumerism fills the social void. But far from curing the disease of
isolation, it intensifies social comparison to the point at which, having consumed
all else, we start to prey upon ourselves. Social media brings us together and
drives us apart, allowing us precisely to quantify our social standing, and
to see that other people have more friends and followers than we do.
As Rhiannon Lucy Cosslett has brilliantly documented, girls and young women
routinely alter the photos they post to make themselves look smoother and slimmer.
Some phones, using their "beauty" settings, do it for you without asking; now
you can become your own thinspiration. Welcome to the post-Hobbesian dystopia:
a war of everyone against themselves.
Social media brings us together and drives us apart, allowing us precisely
to quantify our social standing
Is it any wonder, in these lonely inner worlds, in which touching has been
replaced by retouching, that young women are drowning in mental distress?
A recent survey in England suggests that one in four women between 16 and
24 have harmed themselves, and one in eight now suffer from post-traumatic stress
disorder. Anxiety, depression, phobias or obsessive compulsive disorder affect
26% of women in this age group. This is what a public health crisis looks like.
If social rupture is not treated as seriously as broken limbs, it is because
we cannot see it. But neuroscientists can. A series of fascinating papers suggest
that social pain and physical pain are processed by the same neural circuits.
This might explain why, in many languages, it is hard to describe the impact
of breaking social bonds without the words we use to denote physical pain and
injury. In both humans and other social mammals, social contact reduces physical
pain. This is why we hug our children when they hurt themselves: affection is
a powerful analgesic. Opioids relieve both physical agony and the distress
of separation. Perhaps this explains the link between social isolation and drug
addiction.
Experiments summarised in the journal Physiology & Behaviour last month suggest
that, given a choice of physical pain or isolation, social mammals will choose
the former. Capuchin monkeys starved of both food and contact for 22 hours will
rejoin their companions before eating. Children who experience emotional
neglect, according to some findings, suffer worse mental health consequences
than children suffering both emotional neglect and physical abuse: hideous as
it is, violence involves attention and contact. Self-harm is often used as an
attempt to alleviate distress: another indication that physical pain is not
as bad as emotional pain. As the prison system knows only too well, one of the
most effective forms of torture is solitary confinement.
It is not hard to see what the evolutionary reasons for social pain might
be. Survival among social mammals is greatly enhanced when they are strongly
bonded with the rest of the pack. It is the isolated and marginalised animals
that are most likely to be picked off by predators, or to starve. Just as physical
pain protects us from physical injury, emotional pain protects us from social
injury. It drives us to reconnect. But many people find this almost impossible.
It's unsurprising that social isolation is strongly associated with depression,
suicide, anxiety, insomnia, fear and the perception of threat. It's more surprising
to discover the range of physical illnesses it causes or exacerbates. Dementia,
high blood pressure, heart disease, strokes, lowered resistance to viruses,
even accidents are more common among chronically lonely people. Loneliness has
a comparable impact on physical health to smoking 15 cigarettes a day: it appears
to raise the risk of early death by 26%. This is partly because it enhances
production of the stress hormone cortisol, which suppresses the immune system.
Studies in both animals and humans suggest a reason for comfort eating: isolation
reduces impulse control, leading to obesity. As those at the bottom of the socioeconomic
ladder are the most likely to suffer from loneliness, might this provide one
of the explanations for the strong link between low economic status and obesity?
Anyone can see that something far more important than most of the issues
we fret about has gone wrong. So why are we engaging in this world-eating, self-consuming
frenzy of environmental destruction and social dislocation, if all it produces
is unbearable pain? Should this question not burn the lips of everyone in public
life?
There are some wonderful charities doing what they can to fight this tide,
some of which I am going to be working with as part of my loneliness project.
But for every person they reach, several others are swept past.
This does not require a policy response. It requires something much bigger:
the reappraisal of an entire worldview. Of all the fantasies human beings entertain,
the idea that we can go it alone is the most absurd and perhaps the most dangerous.
We stand together or we fall apart.
Well its a bit of a stretch blaming neoliberalism for creating loneliness.
Yet it seems to be the fashion today to imagine that the world we live in
is new...only created just years ago. And all the suffering that we see
now never existed before. Plagues of anxiety, stress, depression, social
phobia, eating disorders, self-harm and loneliness never happened in
the past, because everything was bright and shiny and world was good.
Regrettably history teaches us that suffering and deprivation have dogged
mankind for centuries, if not tens of thousands of years. That's what we
do; survive, persist...endure. Blaming 'neoliberalism' is a bit of cop-out.
It's the human condition man, just deal with it.
Some of the connections here are a bit tenuous, to say the least, including
the link to political ideology. Economic liberalism is usually accompanied
with social conservatism, and vice versa. Right wing ideologues are more
likely to emphasize the values of marriage and family stability, while left
wing ones are more likely to favor extremes of personal freedom and reject
those traditional structures that used to bind us together.
You're a little confused there in your connections between policies, intentions
and outcomes. Nevertheless, Neoliberalism is a project that explicitly
aims, and has achieved, the undermining and elimination of social networks
in favour of market competition.
In practice, loosening social and legal institutions has reduced
social security (in the general sense rather than simply welfare payments)
and encouraged the limitation of social interaction to money based activity.
That holds true when you're talking about demographics/voters.
Economic and social liberalism go hand in hand in the West. No matter
who's in power, the establishment pushes both but will do one or the other
covertly.
All powerful institutions have a vested interest in keeping us atomized
and individualistic. The gangs at the top don't want competition. They're
afraid of us. In particular, they're afraid of men organising into gangs.
That's where this very paper comes in.
The alienation genie was out of the bottle with the beginning of the
Industrial Revolution and mass migration to cities began and we abandoned
living in village communities. Over the ensuing approx 250 years we
abandoned geographically close relationships with extended families, especially
post WW2. Underlying economic structures both capitalist and marxist dissolved
relationships that we as communal primates evolved within. Then accelerate
this mess with (anti-) social media the last 20 years along with economic
instability and now dissolution of even the nuclear family (which couldn't
work in the first place, we never evolved to live with just two parents
looking after children) and here we have it: Mass mental illness. Solution?
None. Just form the best type of extended community both within and outside
of family, be engaged and generours with your community hope for the best.
Indeed, Industrialisation of our pre-prescribed lifestyle is a huge factor.
In particular, our food, it's low quality, it's 24 hour avaliability, it's
cardboard box ambivalence, has caused a myriad of health problems. Industrialisation
is about profit for those that own the 'production-line' & much less about
the needs of the recipient.
It's unsurprising that social isolation is strongly associated
with depression, suicide, anxiety, insomnia, fear and the perception
of threat.
Yes, although there is some question of which order things go in. A supportive
social network is clearly helpful, but it's hardly a simple cause and effect.
Levels of different mental health problems appear to differ widely across
societies just in Europe, and it isn't particularly the case that more capitalist
countries have greater incidence than less capitalist ones.
You could just as well blame atheism. Since the rise of neo-liberalism
and drop in church attendance track each other pretty well, and since for
all their ills churches did provide a social support group, why not blame
that?
While attending a church is likely to alleviate loneliness, atheism doesn't
expressly encourage limiting social interactions and selfishness. And of
course, reduced church attendance isn't exactly the same as atheism.
Neoliberalism expressly encourages 'atomisation'- it is all about
reducing human interaction to markets. And so this is just one of the reasons
that neoliberalism is such a bunk philosophy.
So why are we engaging in this world-eating, self-consuming frenzy
of environmental destruction and social dislocation, if all it produces
is unbearable pain?
My stab at an answer would first question the notion that we
are engaging in anything. That presupposes we are making the
choices. Those who set out the options are the ones that make the choices.
We are being engaged by the grotesquely privileged and the pathologically
greedy in an enterprise that profits them still further. It suits the 1%
very well strategically, for obvious reasons, that the 99% don't swap too
many ideas with each other.
We as individuals are offered the 'choice' of consumption as an alternative
to the devastating ennui engendered by powerlessness. It's no choice at
all of course, because consumption merely enriches the 1% and exacerbates
our powerlessness. That was the whole point of my post.
The 'choice' to consume is never collectively exercised as you suggest.
Sadly. If it was, 'we' might be able to organise ourselves into doing something
about it.
According to Robert Putnam, as societies become more ethnically diverse
they lose social capital, contributing to the type of isolation and loneliness
which George describes. Doesn't sound as evil as neoliberalism I suppose.
Disagree. Im British but have had more foreign friends than British. The
UK middle class tend to be boring insular social status obsessed drones.other
nationalities have this too, but far less so
Well, yes, but multiculturalism is a direct result of Neoliberalism.
The market rules and people are secondary. Everything must be done for business
owners, and that everything means access to cheap labor.
Multiculturalism isn't the only thing destroying social cohesion, too.
It was being destroyed long before the recent surges of immigrants. It was
reported many times in the 1980's in communities made up of only one culture.
In many ways, it is being used as the obvious distraction from all the other
ways Fundamentalist Free Marketers wreck live for many.
This post perhaps ranges too widely to the point of being vague and general,
and leading Monbiot to make some huge mental leaps, linking loneliness to
a range of mental and physical problems without being able to explain, for
example, the link between loneliness and obesity and all the steps in-between
without risking derailment into a side issue.
I'd have thought what he really wants to say is that loneliness as
a phenomenon in modern Western society arises out of an intent on the part
of our political and social elites to divide us all into competing against
one another, as individuals and as members of groups, all the better to
keep us under control and prevent us from working together to claim our
fair share of resources.
Are you familiar with the term 'Laughter is the best medicine'? Well, it's
true. When you laugh, your brain releases endorphins, yeah? Your stress
hormones are reduced and the oxygen supply to your blood is increased, so...
I try to laugh several times a day just because... it makes you feel
good! Let's try that, eh? Ohohoo... Hahaha... Just, just... Hahahaha...
Come on, trust me.. you'll feel.. HahaHAhaha! O-o-o-o-a-hahahahaa... Share
No. It has been the concentrated propaganda of the "free" press. Rupert
Murdoch in particular, but many other well-funded organisations working
in the background over 50 years. They are winning.
We're fixated on a magical, abstract concept called "the economy".
Everything must be done to help "the economy", even if this means adults
working through their weekends, neglecting their children, neglecting their
elderly parents, eating at their desks, getting diabetes, breaking down
from stress, and giving up on a family life.
Impertinent managers ban their staff from office relationships, as company
policy, because the company is more important than its staff's wellbeing.
Companies hand out "free" phones that allow managers to harrass staff
for work out of hours, on the understanding that they will be sidelined
if thy don't respond.
And the wellbeing of "the economy" is of course far more important than
whether the British people actually want to merge into a European superstate.
What they want is irrelevant.
That nasty little scumbag George Osborne was the apotheosis of this ideology,
but he was abetted by journalists who report any rise in GDP as "good" -
no matter how it was obtained - and any "recession" to be the equivalent
of a major natural disaster.
If we go on this way, the people who suffer the most will be the rich,
because it will be them swinging from the lamp-posts, or cowering in gated
communities that they dare not leave (Venezuela, South Africa). Those riots
in London five years ago were a warning. History is littered with them.
You can make a reasonable case that 'Neoliberalism' expects that every
interaction, including between individuals, can be reduced to a financial
one. If this results in loneliness then that's certainly a downside
- but the upside is that billions have been lifted out of absolute poverty
worldwide by 'Neoliberalism'.
Mr Monbiot creates a compelling argument that we should end 'Neoliberalism'
but he is very vague about what should replace it other than a 'different
worldview'. Destruction is easy, but creation is far harder.
As a retired teacher it grieves me greatly to see the way our education
service has become obsessed by testing and assessment. Sadly the results
are used not so much to help children learn and develop, but rather as a
club to beat schools and teachers with. Pressurised schools produce pressurised
children. Compare and contrast with education in Finland where young people
are not formally assessed until they are 17 years old. We now assess toddlers
in nursery schools.
SATs in Primary schools had children concentrating on obscure grammatical
terms and usage which they will never ever use again. Pointless and counter-productive.
Gradgrind values driving out the joy of learning.
And promoting anxiety and mental health problems.
It is all the things you describe, Mr Monbiot, and then some. This dystopian
hell, when anything that did work is broken and all things that have never
worked are lined up for a little tinkering around the edges until the camouflage
is good enough to kid people it is something new. It isn't just neoliberal
madness that has created this, it is selfish human nature that has made
it possible, corporate fascism that has hammered it into shape. and an army
of mercenaries who prefer the take home pay to morality. Crime has always
paid especially when governments are the crooks exercising the law.
The value of life has long been forgotten as now the only thing that
matters is how much you can be screwed for either dead or alive. And yet
the Trumps, the Clintons, the Camerons, the Johnsons, the Merkels, the Mays,
the news media, the banks, the whole crooked lot of them, all seem to believe
there is something worth fighting for in what they have created, when painfully
there is not. We need revolution and we need it to be lead by those who
still believe all humanity must be humble, sincere, selfless and most of
all morally sincere. Freedom, justice, and equality for all, because the
alternative is nothing at all.
Ive long considered neo-liberalism as the cause of many of our problems,
particularly the rise in mental health problems, alienation and loneliness.
As can be seen from many of the posts, neo-liberalism depends on, and
fosters, ignorance, an inability to see things from historical and different
perspectives and social and intellectual disciplines. On a sociological
level how other societies are arranged throws up interesting comparisons. Scandanavian countries, which have mostly avoided neo-liberalism by and
large, are happier, healthier places to live. America and eastern countries
arranged around neo-liberal, market driven individualism, are unhappy places,
riven with mental and physical health problems and many more social problems
of violence, crime and suicide.
The worst thing is that the evidence shows it doesn't work. Not one of
the privatisations in this country have worked. All have been worse than
what they've replaced, all have cost more, depleted the treasury and led
to massive homelessness, increased mental health problems with the inevitable
financial and social costs, costs which are never acknowledged by its adherents.
Put crudely, the more " I'm alright, fuck you " attitude is fostered,
the worse societies are. Empires have crashed and burned under similar attitudes.
The people who fosted this this system onto us, are now either very old
or dead.
We're living in the shadow of their revolutionary transformation of our
more equitable post-war society. Hayek, Friedman, Keith Joseph, Thatcher,
Greenspan and tangentially but very influentially Ayn Rand.
Although a remainder (I love the wit of the term 'Remoaner') , Brexit can
be better understood in the context of the death-knell of neoliberalism.
I never understood how the collapse of world finance, resulted in a right
wing resurgence in the UK and the US. The Tea Party in the US made the absurd
claim that the failure of global finance was not due to markets being fallible,
but because free markets had not been enforced citing Fanny Mae and Freddie
Mac as their evidence and of Bill Clinton insisting on more poor and black
people being given mortgages.
I have a terrible sense that it will not go quietly, there will be massive
global upheavals as governments struggle deal with its collapse.
I have never really agreed with GM - but this article hits the nail on the
head.
I think there are a number of aspects to this:
The internet. The being in constant contact, our lives mapped and
our thoughts analysed - we can comment on anything (whether informed or
total drivel) and we've been fed the lie that our opinion is is right and
that it matters) Ive removed fscebook and twitter from my phone, i have
never been happier
Rolling 24 hour news. That is obsessed with the now, and consistently
squeezes very complex issues into bite sized simple dichotomies. Obsessed
with results and critical in turn of everyone who fails to feed the machine
The increasing slicing of work into tighter and slimmer specialisms,
with no holistic view of the whole, this forces a box ticking culture. "Ive
stamped my stamp, my work is done" this leads to a lack of ownership of
the whole. PIP assessments are an almost perfect example of this - a box
ticking exercise, designed by someone who'll never have to go through it,
with no flexibility to put the answers into a holistic context.
Our education system is designed to pass exams and not prepare for
the future or the world of work - the only important aspect being the compilation
of next years league tables and the schools standings. This culture is neither
healthy no helpful, as students are schooled on exam technique in order
to squeeze out the marks - without putting the knowledge into a meaningful
and understandable narrative.
Apologies for the long post - I normally limit myself to a trite insulting
comment :) but felt more was required in this instance.
Overall, I agree with your points. Monbiot here adopts a blunderbuss approach
(competitive self-interest and extreme individualism; "brutal" education,
employment social security; consumerism, social media and vanity). Criticism
of his hypotheses on this thread (where articualted at all) focus on the
existence of solitude and loneliness prior to neo liberalism, which seems
to me to be to deliberately miss his point: this was formerly a minor phenomenon,
yet is now writ on an incredible scale - and it is a social phenomenon particular
to those western economies whose elites have most enthusiastically embraced
neo liberalism. So, when Monbiot's rhetoric rises:
"So why are we engaging in this world-eating, self-consuming frenzy
of environmental destruction and social dislocation, if all it produces
is unbearable pain?"
the answer is, of course, 'western capitalist elites'.
We stand together or we fall apart.
Hackneyed and unoriginal but still true for all that.
the answer is, of course, 'western capitalist elites'.
because of the lies that are being sold.
We all want is to: (and feel we have the right to) wear the best clothes,
have the foreign holidays, own the latest tech and eat the finest foods.
At the same time our rights have increased and awareness of our responsibilities
have minimized. The execution of common sense and an awareness that everything
that goes wrong will always be someone else fault.
We are not all special snowflakes, princesses or worthy of special treatment,
but we act like self absorbed, entitled individuals. Whether that's entitled
to benefits, the front of the queue or bumped into first because its our
birthday!
I share Monbiots pain here. But rather than get a sense of perspective
- the answer is often "More public money and counseling"
George Monbiot has struck a nerve.
They are there every day in my small town local park: people, young and
old, gender and ethnically diverse, siting on benches for a couple of hours
at a time.
They have at least one thing in common.
They each sit alone, isolated in their own thoughts..
But many share another bond: they usually respond to dogs, unconditional
in their behaviour patterns towards humankind.
Trite as it may seem, this temporary thread of canine affection breaks the
taboo of strangers
passing by on the other side.
Conversations, sometimes stilted, sometimes deeper and more meaningful,
ensue as dog walkers become a brief daily healing force in a fractured world
of loneliness.
It's not much credit in the bank of sociability.
But it helps.
Trite as it may seem from the outside, their interaction with the myriad
pooches regularly walk
Unhealthy social interaction, yes. You can never judge what is natural to
humans based on contemporary Britain. Anthropologists repeatedly find that
what we think natural is merely a social construct created by the system
we are subject to.
If you don't work hard, you will be a loser, don't look out of the window
day dreaming you lazy slacker. Get productive, Mr Burns millions need you
to work like a machine or be replaced by one.
Good article. You´re absoluately right. And the deeper casue is this: separation
from God. If we don´t fight our way back to God, individually and collectively,
things are going to get a lot worse. With God, loneliness doesn´t exist.
I encourage anyone and everyone to start talking to Him today and invite
Him into your heart and watch what starts to happen.
Religion divides not brings people together. Only when you embrace all humanity
and ignore all gods will you find true happiness. The world and the people
in it are far more inspiring when you contemplate the lack of any gods.
The fact people do amazing things without needing the promise of heaven
or the threat of hell - that is truly moving.
I see what you're saying but I read 'love' instead of God. God is too religious
which separates and divides ("I'm this religion and my god is better than
yours" etc etc). I believe that George is right in many ways in that money
is very powerful on it's impact on our behavior (stress, lack etc) and
therefore our lives. We are becoming fearful of each other and I believe
the insecurity we feel plays a part in this.
We have become so disconnected
from ourselves and focused on battling to stay afloat. Having experienced
periods of severe stress due to lack of money I couldn't even begin to think
about how I felt, how happy I was, what I really wanted to do with my life.
I just had to pay my landlord, pay the bills and try and put some food on
my table so everything else was totally neglected.
When I moved house to
move in with family and wasn't expected to pay rent, though I offered, all
that dissatisfaction and undealt with stuff came spilling out and I realised
I'd had no time for any real safe care above the very basics and that was
not a good place to be. I put myself into therapy for a while and started
to look after myself and things started to change. I hope to never go back
to that kind of position but things are precarious financially and the field
I work in isn't well paid but it makes me very happy which I realise now
is more important.
Neo-liberalism has a lot to answer for in bringing misery to our lives and
accelerating the demise of the planet but I find it not guilty on this one. The current trends as to how people perceive themselves (what you've
got rather than who you are) and the increasing isolation in our cities
started way before the neo-liberals. It is getting worse though and on balance social media is making us more
connected but less social. Share
The way that the left keeps banging on about neoliberalism is half of what
makes them such a tough sell electorally. Just about nobody knows what neoliberalism
is, and literally nobody self identifies as a neoliberal. So all this moaning
and wailing about neoliberalism comes across as a self absorbed, abstract
and irrelevant. I expect there is the germ of an idea in there, but until
the left can find away to present that idea without the baffling layer of
jargon and over-analysis, they're going to remain at a disadvantage to the
easy populism of the right.
Interesting article. We have heard so much about the size of our economy
but less about our quality of life. The UK quality of life is way below
the size of our economy i.e. economy size 6th largest in the world but quality
of life 15th. If we were the 10th largest economy but were 10th for quality
of life we would be better off than we are now in real terms.
We need a
radical change of political thinking to focus on quality of life rather
than obsession with the size of our economy. High levels of immigration
of people who don't really integrate into their local communities has fractured
our country along with the widening gap between rich and poor. Governments
only see people in terms of their "economic value" - hence mothers being
driven out to work, children driven into daycare and the elderly driven
into care homes. Britain is becoming a soulless place - even our great British
comedy is on the decline.
Interesting. 'It is the isolated and marginalised animals that are most
likely to be picked off by predators....' so perhaps the species is developing
its own predators to fill a vacated niche.
(Not questioning the comparison to other mammals at all as I think it
is valid but you would have to consider the whole rather than cherry pick
bits)
Generation snowflake. "I'll do myself in if you take away my tablet and
mobile phone for half an hour".
They don't want to go out and meet people anymore. Nightclubs for instance,
are closing because the younger generation 'don't see the point' of going
out to meet people they would otherwise never meet, because they can meet
people on the internet. Leave them to it and the repercussions of it.....
Socialism is dying on its feet in the UK, hence the Tory's 17 point lead
at the mo. The lefties are clinging to whatever influence they have to sway
the masses instead of the ballot box. Good riddance to them.
17 point lead? Dying on it's feet? The neo-liberals are showing their disconnect
from reality. If anything, neo-liberalism is driving a people to the left
in search of a fairer and more equal society.
George Moniot's articles are better thought out, researched and written
than the vast majority of the usual clickbait opinion pieces found on the
Guardian these days. One of the last journalists, rather than liberal arts
blogger vying for attention.
Neoliberalism's rap sheet is long and dangerous but this toxic philosophy
will continue unabated because most people can't join the dots and work
out how detrimental it has proven to be for most of us.
It dangles a carrot in order to create certain economic illusions but
the simple fact is neoliberal societies become more unequal the longer they
persist.
Neoliberal economies allow people to build huge global businesses very quickly
and will continue to give the winners more but they also can guve everyone
else more too but just at a slower rate. Socialism on the other hand mires
everyone in stagnant poverty. Question is do you want to be absolutely or
relatively better off.
You have no idea. Do not confuse capitalism with neoliberalism. Neoliberalism
is a political ideology based on a mythical version of capitalism that doesn't
actually exist, but is a nice way to get the deluded to vote for something
that doesn't work in their interest at all.
And things will get worse as society falls apart due to globalisation, uberization,
lack of respect for authority, lacks of a fair tax and justice system, crime,
immorality, loss of trust of politicians and financial and corporate sectors,
uncontrolled immigration bringing with it insecurity and the risk of terrorism
and a dumbing down of society with increasing inequality. All this is in
a new book " The World at a Crossroads" which deals with the major issues
facing the planet.
What, like endless war, unaffordable property, monstrous university fees,
zero hours contracts and a food bank on every corner, and that's before
we even get to the explosion in mental distress.
There's nothing spurious or obscure about Neoliberalism. It is simply the
political ideology of the rich, which has been our uninterrupted governing
ideology since Reagan and Thatcher: Privatisation, deregulation, 'liberalisation'
of housing, labour, etc, trickledown / low-tax-on-the-rich economics, de-unionization.
You only don't see it if you don't want to see it.
I'm just thinking what is wonderful about societies that are big of social
unity. And conformity.
Those societies for example where you "belong" to your family. Where
teenage girls can be married off to elderly uncles to cement that belonging.
Or those societies where the belonging comes through religious centres.
Where the ostracism for "deviant" behaviour like being gay or for women
not submitting to their husbands can be brutal. And I'm not just talking
about muslims here.
Or those societies that are big on patriotism. Yep they are usually good
for mental health as the young men are given lessons in how to kill as many
other men as possible efficiently.
And then I have to think how our years of "neo-liberal" governments have
taken ideas of social liberalisation and enshrined them in law. It may be
coincidence but thirty years after Thatcher and Reagan we are far more tolerant
of homosexuality and willing to give it space to live, conversely we are
far less tolerant of racism and are willing to prosecute racist violence.
Feminists may still moan about equality but the position of women in society
has never been better, rape inside marriage has (finally) been outlawed,
sexual violence generally is no longer condoned except by a few, work opportunities
have been widened and the woman's role is no longer just home and family.
At least that is the case in "neo-liberal" societies, it isn't necessarily
the case in other societies.
So unless you think loneliness is some weird Stockholm Syndrome thing
where your sense of belonging comes from your acceptance of a stifling role
in a structured soiety, then I think blaming the heightened respect for
the individual that liberal societies have for loneliness is way off the
mark.
What strikes me about the cases you cite above, George, is not an over-respect
for the individual but another example of individuals being shoe-horned
into a structure. It strikes me it is not individualism but competition
that is causing the unhappiness. Competition to achieve an impossible ideal.
I fear George, that you are not approaching this with a properly open
mind dedicated to investigation. I think you have your conclusion and you
are going to bend the evidence to fit. That is wrong and I for one will
not support that. In recent weeks and months we have had the "woe, woe and
thrice woe" writings. Now we need to take a hard look at our findings. We
need to take out the biases resulting from greater awareness of mental health
and better and fuller diagnosis of mental health issues. We need to balance
the bias resulting from the fact we really only have hard data for modern
Western societies. And above all we need to scotch any bias resulting from
the political worldview of the researchers.
It sounded to me that he was telling us of farm labouring and factory fodder
stock that if we'd 'known our place' and kept to it ,all would be well because
in his ideal society there WILL be or end up having a hierarchy, its inevitable.
Wasn't all this started by someone who said, "There is no such thing as
Society"? The ultimate irony is that the ideology that championed the individual
and did so much to dismantle the industrial and social fabric of the Country
has resulted in a system which is almost totalitarian in its disregard for
its ideological consequences.
Thatcher said it in the sense that society is not abstract it is just other
people so when you say society needs to change then people need to change
as society is not some independent concept it is an aggregation of all us.
The left mis quote this all the time and either they don't get it or they
are doing on purpose.
No, Neoliberalism has been around since 1938.... Thatcher was only responsible
for "letting it go" in Britain in 1980, but actually it was already racing
ahead around the world.
Furthermore, it could easily be argued that the Beatles helped create
loneliness - what do you think all those girls were screaming for? And also
it could be argued that the Beatles were bringing in neoliberalism in the
1960s, via America thanks to Elvis Presley and Jerry Lee Lewis etc.. Share
Great article, although surely you could've extended the blame to capitalism
has a whole?
In what, then, consists the alienation of labor? First, in the fact
that labor is external to the worker, i.e., that it does not belong
to his nature, that therefore he does not realize himself in his work,
that he denies himself in it, that he does not feel at ease in it, but
rather unhappy, that he does not develop any free physical or mental
energy, but rather mortifies his flesh and ruins his spirit. The worker,
therefore, is only himself when he does not work, and in his work he
feels outside himself. He feels at home when he is not working, and
when he is working he does not feel at home. His labor, therefore, is
not voluntary, but forced--forced labor. It is not the gratification
of a need, but only a means to gratify needs outside itself. Its alien
nature shows itself clearly by the fact that work is shunned like the
plague as soon as no physical or other kind of coercion exists.
Marx, Economic and Philosophical Manuscripts of 1844
We have created a society with both flaws and highlights- and we have unwittingly
allowed the economic system to extend into our lives in negative ways.
On of the things being modern brings is movement- we move away from communities,
breaking friendships and losing support networks, and the support networks
are the ones that allow us to cope with issues, problems and anxiety.
Isolation among the youth is disturbing, it is also un natural, perhaps
it is social media, or fear of parents, or the fall in extra school activities
or parents simply not having a network of friends because they have had
to move for work or housing.
There is some upsides, I talk and get support from different international
communities through the social media that can also be so harmful- I chat
on xbox games, exchange information on green building forums, arts forums,
share on youtube as well as be part of online communities that hold events
in the real world.
Increasingly we seem to need to document our lives on social media to somehow
prove we 'exist'. We seem far more narcissistic these days, which tends
to create a particular type of unhappiness, or at least desire that can
never be fulfilled. Maybe that's the secret of modern consumer-based capitalism.
To be happy today, it probably helps to be shallow, or avoid things like
Twitter and Facebook!
Eric Fromm made similar arguments to Monbiot about the psychological
impact of modern capitalism (Fear of Freedom and The Sane Society) - although
the Freudian element is a tad outdated. However, for all the faults of modern
society, I'd rather be unhappy now than in say, Victorian England. Similarly,
life in the West is preferable to the obvious alternatives.
Thanks George for commenting in such a public way on the unsayable: consume,
consume, consume seems to be the order of the day in our modern world and
the points you have highlighted should be part of public policy everywhere.
I'm old enough to remember when we had more time for each other; when
mothers could be full-time housewives; when evenings existed (evenings now
seem to be spent working or getting home from work). We are undoubtedly
more materialistic, which leads to more time spent working, although our
modern problems are probably not due to increasing materialism alone.
Regarding divorce and separation, I notice people in my wider circle
who are very open to affairs. They seem to lack the self-discipline to concentrate
on problems in their marriage and to give their full-time partner a high
level of devotion. Terrible problems come up in marriages but if you are
completely and unconditionally committed to your partner and your marriage
then you can get through the majority of them.
Aggressive self interest is turning in on itself. Unfortunately the powerful
who have realised their 'Will to Power' are corrupted by their own inflated
sense of self and thus blinded. Does this all predict a global violent revolution?
However, what is most interesting is how nearly all modern politicians
who peddle neoliberal doctrine or policy, refuse to use the name, or even
to openly state what ideology they are in fact following.
I suppose it is just a complete coincidence that the policy so many governments
are now following so closely follow known neoliberal doctrine. But of course
the clever and unpleasant strategy of those like yourself is to cry conspiracy
theory if this ideology, which dare not speak its name is mentioned.
Your style is tiresome. You make no specific supported criticisms again,
and again. You just make false assertions and engage in unpleasant ad homs
and attempted character assassination. You do not address the evidence for
what George Monbiot states at all.
An excellent article. One wonders exactly what one needs to say in order
to penetrate the reptilian skulls of those who run the system.
As an addition to Mr Monbiot's points, I would like to point out that
it is not only competitive self-interest and extreme individualism that
drives loneliness. Any system that has strict hierarchies and mechanisms
of social inclusion also drives it, because such systems inhibit strongly
spontaneous social interaction, in which people simply strike up conversation.
Thailand has such a system. Despite her promoting herself as the land of
smiles, I have found the people here to be deeply segregated and unfriendly.
I have lived here for 17 years. The last time I had a satisfactory face-to-face
conversation, one that went beyond saying hello to cashiers at checkout
counters or conducting official business, was in 1999. I have survived by
convincing myself that I have dialogues with my books; as I delve more deeply
into the texts, the authors say something different to me, to which I can
then respond in my mind.
Epidemics of mental illness are crushing the minds and bodies of
millions. It's time to ask where we are heading and why
I want to quote the sub headline, because "It's time to ask where we are
heading and why", is the important bit. George's excellent and scathing
evidence based criticism of the consequences of neoliberalism is on the
nail. However, we need to ask how we got to this stage. Despite it's name
neoliberalism doesn't really seem to contain any new ideas, and in some
way it's more about Thatcher's beloved return to Victorian values. Most
of what George Monbiot highlights encapsulatec Victorian thinking, the sort
of workhouse mentality.
Whilst it's very important to understand how neoliberalism, the ideology
that dare not speak it's name, derailed the general progress in the developed
world. It's also necessary to understand that the roots this problem go
much further back. Not merely to the start of the industrial revolution,
but way beyond that. It actually began with the first civilizations when
our societies were taken over by powerful rulers, and they essentially started
to farm the people they ruled like cattle. On the one hand they declared
themselves protector of their people, whilst ruthlessly exploiting them
for their own political gain. I use the livestock farming analogy, because
that explains what is going on.
To domesticate livestock, and to make them pliable and easy to work with
the farmer must make himself appear to these herd animals as if they are
their protector, the person who cares for them, nourishes and feeds them.
They become reliant on their apparent benefactor. Except of course this
is a deceitful relationship, because the farmer is just fattening them up
to be eaten.
For the powerful to exploit the rest of people in society for their own
benefit they had to learn how to conceal what they were really doing, and
to wrap it in justifications to bamboozle the people they were exploiting
for their own benefit. They did this by altering our language and inserting
ideas in our culture which justified their rule, and the positions of the
rest of us.
Before state religions, generally what was revered was the Earth, the
natural world. It was on a personal level, and not controlled by the powerful.
So the powerful needed to remove that personal meaningfulness from people's
lives, and said the only thing which was really meaningful, was the religion,
which of course they controlled and were usually the head of. Over generations
people were indoctrinated in a completely new way of thinking, and a language
manipulated so all people could see was the supposed divine right of kings
to rule. Through this language people were detached from what was personally
meaningful to them, and could only find meaningfulness by pleasing their
rulers, and being indoctrinated in their religion.
If you control the language people use, you can control how perceive
the world, and can express themselves.
By stripping language of meaningful terms which people can express themselves,
and filling it full of dubious concepts such as god, the right of kings
completely altered how people saw the world, how they thought. This is why
over the ages, and in different forms the powerful have always attempted
to have full control of our language through at first religion and their
proclamations, and then eventually by them controlling our education system
and the media.
The idea of language being used to control how people see the world,
and how they think is of course not my idea. George Orwell's Newspeak idea
explored in "1984" is very much about this. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newspeak
This control of language is well known throughout history. Often conquerors
would abolish languages of those they conquered. In the so called New World
the colonists eventually tried to control how indigenous people thought
by forcibly sending their children to boarding school, to be stripped of
their culture, their native language, and to be inculcated in the language
and ideas of their colonists. In Britain various attempts were made to banish
the Welsh language, the native language of the Britons, before the Anglo-Saxons
and the Normans took over.
However, what Orwell did not deal with properly is the origin of language
style. To Orwell, and to critics of neoliberalism, the problems can be traced
back to the rise of what they criticised. To a sort of mythical golden age.
Except all the roots of what is being criticised can be found in the period
before the invention of these doctrines. So you have to go right back to
the beginning, to understand how it all began.
Neoliberalism would never have been possible without this long control
of our language and ideas by the powerful. It prevents us thinking outside
the box, about what the problem really is, and how it all began.
All very well but you are talking about ruthlessness of western elites,
mostly British, not all.
It was not like that everywhere. Take Poland for example, and around
there..
New research is emerging - and I'd recommend reading of prof Frost from
St Andrew's Uni - that lower classes were actually treated with respect
by elites there, mainly land owners and aristocracy who more looked after
them and employed and cases of such ruthlessness as you describe were unknown
of.
So that 'truth' about attitudes to lower classes is not universal!
It's spouted by many on here as the root of all evil.
I'd be interested to see how many different definitions I get in
response...
The reason I call neoliberalism the ideology which dare not speak it's name
is that in public you will rarely hear it mentioned by it's proponents.
However, it was a very important part of Thatcherism, Blairism, and so on.
What is most definite is that these politicians and others are most definitely
following some doctrine. Their ideas about what we must do and how we must
do it are arbitrary, but they make it sound as if it's the only way to do
things.
However, as I hint, the main problem in dealing with neoliberalism is
that none of the proponents of this doctrine admit to what ideology they
are actually following. Yet very clearly around the world leaders in many
countries are clearly singing from the same hymn sheet because the policy
they implement is so similar. Something has definitely changed. All the
attempts to roll back welfare, benefits, and public services is most definitely
new, or they wouldn't be having to reverse policy of the past if nothing
had change. But as all these politicians implementing this policy all seem
to refuse to explain what doctrine they are following, it makes it difficult
to pin down what is happening. Yet we can most definitely say that there
is a clear doctrine at work, because why else would so many political leaders
around the world be trying to implement such similar policy.
Neo-liberalism doesn't really exist except in the minds of the far
left and perhaps a few academics.
Neoliberalism is a policy model of social studies and economics that
transfers control of economic factors to the private sector from the public
sector. ... Neoliberal policies aim for a laissez-faire approach to economic
development.
I believe the term 'Neo liberalism' was coined by those well known 'Lefties'The
Chicago School .
If you don't believe that any of the above has been happening ,it does beg
the question as to where you have been for the past decade.
The ironies of modern civilization - we have never been more 'connected'
to other people on global level and less 'connected' on personal level.
We have never had access to such a wide range of information and opinions,
but also for a long time been so divided into conflicting groups, reading
and accessing in fact only that which reinforces what we already think.
Sir Harry Burns, ex-Chief Medical Officer in Scotland talks very powerfully
about the impact of loneliness and isolation on physical and mental health
- here is a video of a recent talk by him -
http://www.befs.org.uk/calendar/48/164-BEFS-Annual-Lecture
These issues have been a long time coming, just think of the appeals of
the 60's to chill out and love everyone. Globalisation and neo-liberalism
has simply made society even more broken.
The way these problems have been ignored and made worse over the last few
decades make me think that the solution will only happen after a massive
catastrophe and society has to be rebuilt. Unless we make the same mistakes
again.
A shame really, you would think intelligence would be useful but it seems
not.
I would argue that it creates a bubble of existence for those who pursue
a path of "success" that instead turns to isolation . The amount of people
that I have met who have moved to London because to them it represents the
main location for everything . I get to see so many walking cliches of people
trying to fit in or stand out but also fitting in just the same .
The real disconnect that software is providing us with is truly staggering
. I have spoken to people from all over the World who seem to feel more
at home being alone and playing a game with strangers . The ones who are
most happy are those who seem to be living all aloe and the ones who try
and play while a girlfriend or family are present always seemed to be the
ones most agitated by them .
We are humans relying on simplistic algorithms that reduce us ,apps like
Tinder which turns us into a misogynist at the click of a button .
Facebook which highlights our connections with the other people and assumes
that everyone you know or have met is of the same relevance .
We also have Twitter which is the equivalent of screaming at a television
when you are drunk or angry .
We have Instagram where people revel in their own isolation and send
updates of it . All those products that are instantly updated and yet we
are ageing and always feeling like we are grouped together by simple algorithms
.
Television has been the main destroyer of social bonds since the 1950s and
yet it is only mentioned once and in relation to the number of competitions
on it, which completely misses the point. That's when I stopped taking this
article seriously.
I actually blame Marx for neoliberalism. He framed society purely in terms
economic, and persuaded that ideology is valuable in as much as it is actionable.
For a dialectician he was incredibly short sighted and superficial, not
realising he was creating a narrative inimical to personal expression and
simple thoughtfulness (although he was warned). To be fair, he can't have
appreciated how profoundly he would change the way we concieve societies.
Neoliberalism is simply the dark side of Marxism and subsumes the personal
just as comprehensively as communism.
We're picked apart by quantification and live as particulars, suffering
the ubiquitous consequences of connectivity alone . . .
Unless, of course, you get out there and meet great people!
Neo-liberalism allows psychopaths to flourish, and it has been argued by
Robert Hare that they are disproportionately represented in the highest
echelons of society. So people who lack empathy and emotional attachment
are probably weilding a significant amount of influence over the way our
economy and society is organised. Is it any wonder that they advocate an
economic model which is most conducive to their success? Things like job
security, rigged markets, unions, and higher taxes on the rich simply get
in their way.
That fine illustration by Andrzej Krauze up there is exactly what I see
whenever I walk into an upscale mall or any Temple of Consumerism.
You can hear the Temple calling out: "Feel bad, atomized individuals?
Have a hole inside? Feel lonely? That's all right: buy some shit you don't
need and I guarantee you'll feel better."
And then it says: "So you bought it and you felt better for five minutes,
and now you feel bad again? Well, that's not rocket science...you should
buy MORE shit you don't need! I mean, it's not rocket science, you should
have figured this out on your own."
And then it says: "Still feel bad and you have run out of money? Well,
that's okay, just get it on credit, or take out a loan, or mortgage your
house. I mean, it's not rocket science. Really, you should have figured
this out on your own already...I thought you were a modern, go-get-'em,
independent, initiative-seizing citizen of the world?"
And then it says: "Took out too many loans, can't pay the bills and
the repossession has begun? Honestly, that's not my problem. You're just
a bad little consumer, and a bad little liberal, and everything is your
own fault. You go sit in a dark corner now where you don't bother the other
shoppers. Honestly, you're just being a burden on other consumers now. I'm
not saying you should kill yourself, but I can't say that we would mind
either."
And that's how the worms turn at the Temples of Consumerism and Neoliberalism.
I kept my sanity by not becoming a spineless obedient middle class pleaser
of a sociopathic greedy tribe pretending neoliberalism is the future.
The result is a great clarity about the game, and an intact empathy for
all beings.
The middle class treated each conscious "outsider" like a lowlife,
and now they play the helpless victims of circumstances.
I know why I renounced to my privileges.
They sleepwalk into their self created disorder.
And yes, I am very angry at those who wasted decades with their social stupidity,
those who crawled back after a start of change into their petit bourgeois
niche.
I knew that each therapist has to take a stand and that the most choose
petty careers.
Do not expect much sanity from them for your disorientated kids.
Get insightful yourself and share your leftover love to them.
Try honesty and having guts...that might help both of you.
Alternatively, neo-liberalism has enabled us to afford to live alone (entire
families were forced to live together for economic reasons), and technology
enables us to work remotely, with no need for interaction with other people.
This may make some people feel lonely, but for many others its utopia.
Some of the things that characterise Globalisation and Neoliberalism are
open borders and free movement. How can that contribute to isolation? That
is more likely to be fostered by Protectionism.
And there aren't fewer jobs. Employment is at record highs here and in many
other countries. There are different jobs, not fewer, and to be sure there
are some demographics that have lost out. But overall there are not fewer
jobs. That falls for the old "lump of labour" fallacy.
The corrosive state of mass television indoctrination sums it up: Apprentice,
Big Brother, Dragon's Den. By degrees, the standard keeps lowering. It is
no longer unusual for a licence funded TV programme to consist of a group
of the mentally deranged competing to be the biggest asshole in the room.
Anomie is a by-product of cultural decline as much as economics.
Our whole culture is more stressful. Jobs are more precarious; employment
rights more stacked in favor of the employer; workforces are deunionised;
leisure time is on the decrease; rents are unaffordable; a house is no longer
a realistic expectation for millions of young people. Overall, citizens
are more socially immobile and working harder for poorer real wages than
they were in the late 70's.
Unfortunately, sexual abuse has always been a feature of human societies.
However there is no evidence to suggest it was any worse in the past. Then
sexual abuse largely took place in institutional settings were at least
it could be potentially addressed. Now much of it has migrated to the great
neoliberal experiment of the internet, where child exploitation is at endemic
levels and completely beyond the control of law enforcement agencies. There
are now more women and children being sexually trafficked than there were
slaves at the height of the slave trade. Moreover, we should not forget
that Jimmy Saville was abusing prolifically right into the noughties.
My parents were both born in 1948. They say it was great. They bought
a South London house for next to nothing and never had to worry about getting
a job. When they did get a job it was one with rights, a promise of a generous
pension, a humane workplace environment, lunch breaks and an ethos of public
service. My mum says that the way women are talked about now is worse.
Sounds fine to me. That's not to say everything was great: racism was
acceptable (though surely the vile views pumped out onto social media are
as bad or worse than anything that existed then), homosexuality was illegal
and capital punishment enforced until the 1960's. However, the fact that
these things were reformed showed society was moving in the right direction.
Now we are going backwards, back to 1930's levels or inequality and a reactionary,
small-minded political culture fueled by loneliness, rage and misery.
And there is little evidence to suggest that anyone has expanded their mind
with the internet. A lot of people use it to look at porn, post racist tirades
on Facebook, send rape threats, distributes sexual images of partners with
their permission, take endless photographs of themselves and whip up support
for demagogues. In my view it would much better if people went to a library
than lurked in corporate echo chambers pumping out the like of 'why dont
theese imagrantz go back home and all those lezbo fems can fuckk off too
ha ha megalolz ;). Seriously mind expanding stuff. Share
As a director and CEO of an organisation employing several hundred people
I became aware that 40% of the staff lived alone and that the workplace
was important to them not only for work but also for interacting with their
colleagues socially . This was encouraged and the organisation achieved
an excellent record in retaining staff at a time when recruitment was difficult.
Performance levels were also extremely high . I particulalry remember with
gratitude the solidarity of staff when one of our colleagues - a haemophiliac
- contracted aids through an infected blood transfusion and died bravely
but painfully - the staff all supported him in every way possible through
his ordeal and it was a privilege for me to work with such kind and caring
people .
Indeed. Those communities are often undervalued. However, the problem is,
as George says, lots of people are excluded from them.
They are also highly self-selecting (e.g. you need certain trains of
inclusivity, social adeptness, empathy, communication, education etc to
get the job that allows you to join that community).
Certainly I make it a priority in my life. I do create communities. I
do make an effort to stand by people who live like me. I can be a leader
there.
Sometimes I wish more people would be. It is a sustained, long-term effort.
Share
To add to this discussion, we might consider the strongest need and conflict
each of us experiences as a teenager, the need to be part of a tribe vs
the the conflict inherent in recognising one's uniqueness. In a child's
life from about 7 or 8 until adolescence, friends matter the most. Then
the young person realises his or her difference from everyone else and has
to grasp what this means.
Those of us who enjoyed a reasonably healthy upbringing will get through
the peer group / individuation stage with happiness possible either way
- alone or in friendship. Our parents and teachers will have fostered a
pride in our own talents and our choice of where to socialise will be flexible
and non-destructive.
Those of us who at some stage missed that kind of warmth and acceptance
in childhood can easily stagnate. Possibly this is the most awkward of personal
developmental leaps. The person neither knows nor feels comfortable with
themselves, all that faces them is an abyss.
Where creative purpose and strength of spirit are lacking, other humans
can instinctively sense it and some recoil from it, hardly knowing what
it's about. Vulnerabilities attendant on this state include relationships
holding out some kind of ersatz rescue, including those offered by superficial
therapists, religions, and drugs, legal and illegal.
Experience taught that apart from the work we might do with someone deeply
compassionate helping us where our parents failed, the natural world
is a reliable healer. A kind of self-acceptance and individuation is
possible away from human bustle. One effect of the seasons and of being
outdoors amongst other life forms is to challenge us physically, into present
time, where our senses start to work acutely and our observational skills
get honed, becoming more vibrant than they could at any educational establishment.
This is one reason we have to look after the Earth, whether it's in a
city context or a rural one. Our mental, emotional and physical health is
known to be directly affected by it.
A thoughtful article. But the rich and powerful will ignore it; their doing
very well out of neo liberalism thank you. Meanwhile many of those whose
lives are affected by it don't want to know - they're happy with their bigger
TV screen. Which of course is what the neoliberals want, 'keep the people
happy and in the dark'. An old Roman tactic - when things weren't
going too well for citizens and they were grumbling the leaders just
extended the 'games'. Evidently it did the trick
The rich and powerful can be just as lonely as you and me. However, some
of them will be lonely after having royally forked the rest of us over...and
that is another thing
- Fight Club
People need a tribe to feel purpose. We need conflict, it's essential for
our species... psychological health improved in New York after 9/11.
Totally agree with the last sentences. Human civilisation is a team effort.
Individual humans cant survive, our language evolved to aid cooperation.
Neo-liberalism is really only an Anglo-American project. Yet we are so
indoctrinated in it, It seems natural to us, but not to hardly any other
cultures.
As for those "secondary factors. Look to advertising and the loss of
real jobs forcing more of us to sell services dependent on fake needs. Share
It's importance for social cohesion -- yes inspite of the problems , can
not be overestimated .Don't let the rich drive it out , people who don't
understand ,or care what it's for .The poorer boroughs cannot afford it
.K&C have easily 1/2billion in Capital Reserves ,so yes they must continue
. Here I can assure you ,one often sees the old and lonely get a hug .If
drug gangs are hitting each other or their rich boy customers with violence
- that is a different matter . And yes of course if we don't do something
to help boys from ethnic minorities ,with education and housing -of course
it only becomes more expensive in the long run.
Boris Johnson has idiotically mouthed off about trying to mobilise people
to stand outside the Russian Embassy , as if one can mobilise youth by telling
them to tidy their bedroom .Because that's all it amounts to - because you
have to FEEL protest and dissent . Well here at Carnival - there it is ,protest
and dissent . Now listen to it . And of course it will be far easier than
getting any response from sticking your tongue out at the Putin monster --
He has his bombs , just as Kensington and Chelsea have their money.
(and anyway it's only another Boris diversion ,like building some fucking
stupid bridge ,instead of doing anything useful)
"Society" or at least organized society is the enemy of corporate power.
The idea of Neoliberal capitalism is to replace civil society with corporate
law and rule. The same was true of the less extreme forms of capitalism.
Society is the enemy of capital because it put restrictions on it and threatens
its power.
When society organizes itself and makes laws to protect society from
the harmful effects of capitalism, for example demands on testing drugs
to be sure they are safe, this is a big expense to Pfizer, there are many
examples - just now in the news banning sugary drinks. If so much as a small
group of parents forming a day care co-op decide to ban coca cola from their
group that is a loss of profit.
That is really what is going on, loneliness is a big part of human life,
everyone feels it sometimes, under Neoliberal capitalism it is simply more
exaggerated due to the out and out assault on society itself.
Well the prevailing Global Capitalist world view is still a combination
1. homocentric Cartesian Dualism i.e. seeing humans as most important and
sod all other living beings, and seeing humans as separate from all other
living beings and other humans and 2. Darwinian "survival of the fittest"
seeing everything as a competition and people as "winners and losers, weak
or strong with winners and the strong being most important". From these
2 combined views all kinds of "games" arise. The main one being the game
of "victim, rescuer, persecutor" (Transactional Analysis). The Guardian
engages in this most of the time and although I welcome the truth in this
article to some degree, surprisingly, as George is environmentally friendly,
it kinda still is talking as if humans are most important and as if those
in control (the winners) need to change their world view to save the victims.
I think the world view needs to zoom out to a perspective that recognises
that everything is interdependent and that the apparent winners and the
strong are as much victims of their limited world view as those who are
manifesting the effects of it more obviously.
Here in America, we have reached the point at which police routinely dispatch
the mentally ill, while complaining that "we don't have the time for this"
(N. Carolina). When a policeman refuses to kill a troubled citizen, he or
she can and will be fired from his job (West Virginia). This has become
not merely commonplace, but actually a part of the social function of the
work of the police -- to remove from society the burden of caring for the
mentally ill by killing them. In the state where I live, a state trooper
shot dead a mentally ill man who was not only unarmed, but sitting on the
toilet in his own home. The resulting "investigation" exculpated the trooper,
of course; in fact, young people are constantly told to look up to the police.
Sounds like the inevitable logical outcome of a society where the predator
sociopathic and their scared prey are all that is allowed.
This dynamic dualistic tautology, the slavish terrorised to sleep and bullying
narcissistic individual, will always join together to protect their sick
worldview by pathologising anything that will threaten their hegemony of
power abuse: compassion, sensitivity, moral conscience, altruism and the
immediate effects of the ruthless social effacement or punishment of the
same ie human suffering.
The impact of increasing alienation on individual mental health has been
known about and discussed for a long time.
When looking at a way forward, the following article is interesting:
"Alienation, in all areas, has reached unprecedented heights; the social
machinery for deluding consciousnesses in the interest of the ruling class
has been perfected as never before. The media are loaded with upscale advertising
identifying sophistication with speciousness. Television, in constant use,
obliterates the concept under the image and permanently feeds a baseless
credulity for events and history. Against the will of many students, school
doesn't develop the highly cultivated critical capacities that a real sovereignty
of the people would require. And so on.
The ordinary citizen thus lives
in an incredibly deceiving reality. Perhaps this explains the tremendous
and persistent gap between the burgeoning of motives to struggle, and the
paucity of actual combatants. The contrary would be a miracle. Thus the
considerable importance of what I call the struggle for representation:
at every moment, in every area, to expose the deception and bring to light,
in the simplicity of form which only real theoretical penetration makes
possible, the processes in which the false-appearances, real and imagined,
originate, and this way, to form the vigilant consciousness, placing our
image of reality back on its feet and reopening paths to action."
For the global epidemic of abusive, effacing homogenisation of human intellectual
exchange and violent hyper-sexualisation of all culture, I blame the US
Freudian PR guru Edward Bernays and his puritan forebears - alot.
Thanks for proving that Anomie is a far more sensible theory than Dialectical
Materialistic claptrap that was used back in the 80s to terrorize the millions
of serfs living under the Jack boot of Leninist Iron curtain.
There's no question - neoliberalism has been wrenching society apart.
It's not as if the prime movers of this ideology were unaware of the likely
outcome viz. "there is no such thing as society" (Thatcher). Actually in
retrospect the whole zeitgeist from the late 70s emphasised the atomised
individual separated from the whole. Dawkins' "The Selfish Gene" (1976)
may have been influential in creating that climate.
Anyway, the wheel has turned thank goodness. We are becoming wiser and
understanding that "ecology" doesn't just refer to our relationship with
the natural world but also, closer to home, our relationship with each other.
The Communist manifesto makes the same complaint in 1848. The wheel has
not turned, it is still grinding down workers after 150 years. We are none
the wiser.
"The wheel is turning and you can't slow down,
You can't let go and you can't hold on,
You can't go back and you can't stand still,
If the thunder don't get you then the lightning will."
R Hunter
What is loneliness? I love my own company and I love walking in nature and
listening to relaxation music off you tube and reading books from the library.
That is all free. When I fancied a change of scene, I volunteered at my
local art gallery.
Mental health issues are not all down to loneliness. Indeed, other people
can be a massive stress factor, whether it is a narcissistic parent, a bullying
spouse or sibling, or an unreasonable boss at work.
I'm on the internet far too much and often feel the need to detox from
it and get back to a more natural life, away from technology. The 24/7 news
culture and selfie obsessed society is a lot to blame for social disconnect.
The current economic climate is also to blame, if housing and job security
are a problem for individuals as money worries are a huge factor of stress.
The idea of not having any goal for the future can trigger depressive thoughts.
I have to say, I've been happier since I don't have such unrealistic
expectations of what 'success is'. I rarely get that foreign holiday or
new wardrobe of clothes and my mobile phone is archaic. The pressure that
society puts on us to have all these things- and get in debt for them is
not good. The obsession with economic growth at all costs is also stupid,
as the numbers don't necessarily mean better wealth, health or happiness.
Very fine article, as usual from George, until right at the end he says:
This does not require a policy response.
But it does. It requires abandonment of neoliberalism as the means used
to run the world. People talk about the dangers of man made computers usurping
their makers but mankind has, it seems, already allowed itself to become
enslaved. This has not been achieved by physical dependence upon machines
but by intellectual enslavement to an ideology.
A very good "Opinion" by George Monbiot one of the best I have seen on this
Guardian blog page.
I would add that the basic concepts of the Neoliberal New world order are
fundamentally Evil, from the control of world population through supporting
of strife starvation and war to financial inducements of persons in positions
of power. Let us not forget the training of our younger members of our society
who have been induced to a slavish love of technology. Many other areas
of human life are also under attack from the Neoliberal, even the very air
we breathe, and the earth we stand upon.
The Amish have understood for 300 years that technology could have a negative
effect on society and decided to limit its effects. I greatly admire their
approach. Neal Stephenson's recent novel Seveneves coined the term Amistics
for the practice of assessing and limiting the impact of tech. We need a
Minister for Amistics in the government. Wired magazine did two features
on the Amish use of telephones which are quite insightful.
If we go back to 1848, we also find Marx and Engels, in the Communist
Manifesto, complaining about the way that the first free-market capitalism
(the original liberalism) was destroying communities and families by forcing
workers to move to where the factories were being built, and by forcing
women and children into (very) low paid work. 150 years later, after many
generations of this, combined with the destruction of work in the North,
the result is widespread mental illness. But a few people are really rich
now, so that's all right, eh?
Social media is ersatz community. It's like eating grass: filling, but
not nourishing.
Young people are greatly harmed by not being able to see a clear path forward
in the world. For most people, our basic needs are a secure job, somewhere
secure and affordable to live, and a decent social environment in terms
of public services and facilities. Unfortunately, all these things are sliding
further out of reach for young people in the UK, and they know this. Many
already live with insecure housing where their family could have to move
at a month or two's notice.
Our whole economic system needs to be built around providing these basic
securities for people. Neoliberalism = insecure jobs, insecure housing and
poor public services, because these are the end result of its extreme free
market ideology.
I agree with this 100%. Social isolation makes us unhappy. We have a false
sense of what makes us unhappy - that success or wealth will enlighten or
liberate us. What makes us happy is social connection. Good friendships,
good relationships, being part of community that you contribute to. Go to
some of the poorest countries in the world and you may meet happy people
there, tell them about life in rich countries, and say that some people
there are unhappy. They won't believe you. We do need to change our worldview,
because misery is a real problem in many countries.
It is tempting to see the world before Thatcherism, which is what most English
writers mean when they talk about neo-liberalism, as an idyll, but it simply
wasn't.
The great difficulty with capitalism is that while it is in many ways
an amoral doctrine, it goes hand in hand with personal freedom. Socialism
is moral in its concern for the poorest, but then it places limits on personal
freedom and choice. That's the price people pay for the emphasis on community,
rather than the individual.
Close communities can be a bar on personal freedom and have little tolerance
for people who deviate from the norm. In doing that, they can entrench loneliness.
This happened, and to some extent is still happening, in the working
class communities which we typically describe as 'being destroyed by Thatcher'.
It's happening in close-knit Muslim communities now.
I'm not attempting to vindicate Thatcherism, I'm just saying there's
a pay-off with any model of society. George Monbiot's concerns are actually
part of a long tradition - Oliver Goldsmith's Deserted Village (1770) chimes
with his thinking, as does DH Lawrence's Lady Chatterley's Lover.
The kind of personal freedom that you say goes hand in hand with capitalism
is an illusion for the majority of people. It holds up the prospect of that
kind of freedom, but only a minority get access to it. For most, it is necessary
to submit yourself to a form of being yoked, in terms of the daily grind
which places limits on what you can then do, as the latter depends hugely
on money. The idea that most people are "free" to buy the house they want,
private education, etc., not to mention whether they can afford the many
other things they are told will make them happy, is a very bad joke. Hunter-gatherers
have more real freedom than we do. Share
According to Wiki: 'Neoliberalism refers primarily to the 20th century resurgence
of 19th century ideas associated with laissez-faire economic liberalism.
These include extensive economic liberalization policies such as privatization,
fiscal austerity, deregulation, free trade, and reductions in government
spending in order to enhance the role of the private sector in the economy.'
We grow into fear - the stress of exams and their certain meanings; the
lower wages, longer hours, and fewer rights at work; the certainty of debt
with ever greater mortgages; the terror of benefit cuts combined with rent
increases.
If we're forever afraid, we'll cling to whatever life raft presents.
It's a demeaning way to live, but it serves the Market better than having
a free, reasonably paid, secure workforce, broadly educated and properly
housed, with rights.
Insightful analysis... George quite rightly pinpoints the isolating effects of modern society
and technology and the impact on the quality of our relationships. The obvious question is how can we offset these trends and does the government
care enough to do anything about them?
It strikes me that one of the major problems is that [young] people have
been left to their own devices in terms of their consumption of messages
from Social and Mass online Media - analogous to leaving your kids in front
of a video in lieu of a parental care or a babysitter. In traditional society
- the messages provided by Society were filtered by family contact and real
peer interaction - and a clear picture of the limited value of the media
was propogated by teachers and clerics. Now young and older people alike
are left to make their own judgments and we cannot be surprised when they
extract negative messages around body image, wealth and social expectations
and social and sexual norms from these channels. It's inevitable that this
will create a boundary free landscape where insecurity, self-loathing and
ultimately mental illness will prosper.
I'm not a traditionalist in any way but there has to be a role for teachers
and parents in mediating these messages and presenting the context for analysing
what is being said in a healthy way. I think this kind of Personal Esteem
and Life Skills education should be part of the core curriculum in all schools.
Our continued focus on basic academic skills just does not prepare young
people for the real world of judgementalism, superficiality and cliques
and if anything dealing with these issues are core life skills.
We can't reverse the fact that media and modern society is changing but
we can prepare people for the impact which it can have on their lives.
A politician's answer.
X is a problem. Someone else, in your comment it will be teachers that have
to sort it out. Problems in society are not solved by having a one hour
a week class on "self esteem". In fact self-esteem and self-worth comes
from the things you do. Taking kids away from their academic/cultural studies
reduces this. This is a problem in society. What can society as a
whole do to solve it and what are YOU prepared to contribute.
Rather difficult to do when their parents are Thatchers children and buy
into the whole celebrity, you are what you own lifestyle too....and teachers
are far too busy filling out all the paperwork that shows they've met their
targets to find time to teach a person centred course on self-esteem to
a class of 30 teenagers.
I think we should just continue to be selfish and self-serving, sneering
and despising anyone less fortunate than ourselves, look up to and try to
emulate the shallow, vacuous lifestyle of the non-entity celebrity, consume
the Earth's natural resources whilst poisoning the planet and the people,
destroy any non-contributing indigenous peoples and finally set off all
our nuclear arsenals in a smug-faced global firework display to demonstrate
our high level of intelligence and humanity. Surely, that's what we all
want? Who cares? So let's just carry on with business as usual!
Neoliberalism is the bastard child of globalization which in effect is Americanization.
The basic premise is the individual is totally reliant on the corporate
world state aided by a process of fear inducing mechanisms, pharmacology
is one of the tools.
No community no creativity no free thinking. Poded sealed and cling filmed
a quasi existence.
Having grown up during the Thatcher years, I entirely agree that neoliberalism
has divided society by promoting individual self-optimisation at the expensive
of everyone else.
What's the solution? Well if neoliberalism is the root cause, we need
a systematic change, which is a problem considering there is no alternative
right now. We can however, get active in rebuilding communities and I am
encouraged by George Monbiot's work here.
My approach is to get out and join organizations working toward system
change. 350.org is a good example. Get involved.
we live in a narcissistic and ego driven world that dehumanises everyone.
we have an individual and collective crisis of the soul. it is our false
perception of ourselves that creates a disconnection from who we really
are that causes loneliness.
I agree. This article explains why it is a perfectly normal reaction to
the world we are currently living in. It goes as far as to suggest that
if you do not feel depressed at the state of our world there's something
wrong with you ;-) http://upliftconnect.com/mutiny-of-the-soul/
Surely there is a more straightforward possible explanation for increasing
incidence of "unhapiness"?
Quite simply, a century of gradually increasing general living standards
in the West have lifted the masses up Maslows higiene hierarchy of needs,
to where the masses now have largely only the unfulfilled self esteem needs
that used to be the preserve of a small, middle class minority (rather than
the unfulfilled survival, security and social needs of previous generations)
If so - this is good. This is progress. We just need to get them up another
rung to self fulfillment (the current concern of the flourishing upper middle
classes).
Maslow's hierarchy of needs was not about material goods. One could be poor
and still fulfill all his criteria and be fully realised. You have missed
the point entirely.
Error.... Who mentioned material goods? I think you have not so much "missed
the point" as "made your own one up" .
And while agreed that you could, in theory, be poor and meet all of your
needs (in fact the very point of the analysis is that money, of itself,
isn't what people "need") the reality of the structure of a western capitalist
society means that a certain level of affluence is almost certainly a prerequisite
for meeting most of those needs simply because food and shelter at the bottom
end and, say, education and training at the top end of self fulfillment
all have to be purchased. Share
Also note that just because a majority of people are now so far up the
hierarchy
does in no way negate an argument that corporations haven't also noticed
this and target advertising appropriately to exploit it (and maybe we need
to talk about that)
It just means that it's lazy thinking to presume we are in some way "sliding
backwards" socially, rather than needing to just keep pushing through this
adversity through to the summit.
I have to admit it does really stick in my craw a bit hearing millenials
moan about how they may never get to *own* a really *nice* house while their
grandparents are still alive who didn't even get the right to finish school
and had to share a bed with their siblings.
There is no such thing as a free-market society. Your society of 'self-interest'
is really a state supported oligarchy. If you really want to live in a society
where there is literally no state and a more or less open market try Somalia
or a Latin American city run by drug lords - but even then there are hierarchies,
state involvement, militias.
What you are arguing for is a system (for that is what it is) that demands
everyone compete with one another. It is not free, or liberal, or democratic,
or libertarian. It is designed to oppress, control, exploit and degrade
human beings. This kind of corporatism in which everyone is supposed to
serve the God of the market is, ironically, quite Stalinist. Furthermore,
a society in which people are encouraged to be narrowly selfish is just
plain uncivilized. Since when have sociopathy and barbarism been something
to aspire to?
George, you are right, of course. The burning question, however, is not
'Is our current social set-up making us ill' (it certainly is), but 'Is
there a healthier alternative?' What form of society would make us less
ill? Socialism and egalatarianism, wherever they are tried, tend to lead
to their own set of mental-illness-inducing problems, chiefly to do with
thwarted opportunity, inability to thrive, and constraints on individual
freedom. The sharing, caring society is no more the answer than the brutally
individualistic one. You may argue that what is needed is a balance between
the two, but that is broadly what we have already. It ain't perfect, but
it's a lot better than any of the alternatives.
We certainly do NOT at present have a balance between the two societies...Have
you not read the article? Corporations and big business have far too much
power and control over our lives and our Gov't. The gov't does not legislate
for a real living minimum wage and expects the taxpayer to fund corporations
low wage businesses. The Minimum wage and benefit payments are sucked in
to ever increasing basic living costs leaving nothing for the human soul
aside from more work to keep body and soul together, and all the while the
underlying message being pumped at us is that we are failures if we do not
have wealth and all the accoutrements that go with it....How does that create
a healthy society?
Neoliberalism. A simple word but it does a great deal of work for people
like Monbiot.
The simple statistical data on quality of life differences between generations
is absolutely nowhere to be found in this article, nor are self-reported
findings on whether people today are happier, just as happy or less happy
than people thirty years ago. In reality quality of life and happiness indices
have generally been increasing ever since they were introduced.
It's more difficult to know if things like suicide, depression and mental
illness are actually increasing or whether it's more to do with the fact
that the number of people who are prepared to report them is increasing:
at least some of the rise in their numbers will be down to greater awareness
of said mental illness, government campaigns and a decline in associated
social stigma.
Either way, what evidence there is here isn't even sufficient to establish
that we are going through some vast mental health crisis in the first place,
never mind that said crisis is inextricably bound up with 'neoliberalism'.
Furthermore, I'm inherently suspicious of articles that manage to connect
every modern ill to the author's own political bugbear, especially if they
cherry-pick statistical findings to support their point. I'd be just as,
if not more, suspicious if it was a conservative author trying to link the
same ills to the decline in Christianity or similar. In fact, this article
reminds me very much of the sweeping claims made by right-wingers about
the allegedly destructive effects of secularism/atheism/homosexuality/video
games/South Park/The Great British Bake Off/etc...
If you're an author and you have a pet theory, and upon researching an
article you believe you see a pattern in the evidence that points towards
further confirmation of that theory, then you should step back and think
about whether said pattern is just a bit too psychologically convenient
and ideologically simple to be true. This is why people like Steven Pinker
- properly rigorous, scientifically versed writer-researchers - do the work
they do in systematically sifting through the sociological and historical
data: because your mind is often actively trying to convince you to believe
that neoliberalism causes suicide and depression, or, if you're a similarly
intellectually lazy right-winger, homosexuality leads to gang violence and
the flooding of(bafflingly, overwhelmingly heterosexual) parts of America.
I see no sign that Monbiot is interested in testing his belief in his
central claim and as a result this article is essentially worthless except
as an example of a certain kind of political rhetoric.
social isolation is strongly associated with depression, suicide,
anxiety, insomnia, fear and the perception of threat .... Dementia,
high blood pressure, heart disease, strokes, lowered resistance to viruses,
even accidents are more common among chronically lonely people.
Loneliness has a comparable impact on physical health to smoking
15 cigarettes a day:
it appears to raise the risk of early death by 26%
Why don't we explore some of the benefits?.. Following the long
list of some the diseases, loneliness can inflict on individuals, there
must be a surge in demand for all sort of medications; anti-depressants
must be topping the list. There is a host many other anti-stress treatments
available of which Big Pharma must be carving the lion's share. Examine
the micro-economic impact immediately following a split or divorce. There
is an instant doubling on the demand for accommodation, instant doubling
on the demand for electrical and household items among many other products
and services. But the icing on the cake and what is really most critical
for Neoliberalism must be this: With the morale barometer hitting
the bottom, people will be less likely to think of a better future, and
therefore, less likely to protest. In fact, there is nothing left worth
protecting.
Your freedom has been curtailed. Your rights are evaporating in front
of your eyes. And Best of all, from the authorities' perspective, there
is no relationship to defend and there is no family to protect. If you have
a job, you want to keep, you must prove your worthiness every day to 'a
company'.
What's missing in each and every case above -- at least in the USA! -- is
countervailing power. 6% labor union density in private business is equivalent
to 20/10 blood pressure in the human body: it starves every other healthy
process.
It is not just labor market bargaining power that has gone missing, it
is not only the lost political muscle for the average person (equal campaign
financing, almost all the votes), it is also the lack of machinery to deal
with day-to-day outrages on a day-to-day basis (that's called lobbying).
Late dean of the Washington press corps David Broder told a young reporter
that when he came to DC fifty years ago (then), all the lobbyists were union.
Big pharma's biggest rip-offs, for profit school scams, all the stuff you
hear about for one day on the news but no action is ever taken -- that's
because there is no (LABOR UNION) mechanism to stay on top of all (or any)
of it (LOBBYISTS).
It is a chicken and egg problem. Before large scale automation and globalization,
unions "negotiated" themselves their power, which was based on employers
having much fewer other choices. Any union power that was ever legislated
was legislated as a *result* of union leverage, not to enable the latter
(and most of what was legislated amounts to limiting employer interference
with unions).
It is a basic feature of human individual and group relations that when
you are needed you will be treated well, and when you are not needed you
will be treated badly (or at best you will be ignored if that's less effort
overall). And by needed I mean needed as a specific individual or narrowly
described group.
What automation and globalization have done is created a glut of labor
- specifically an oversupply of most skill sets relative to all the work
that has to be done according to socially mediated decision processes (a
different set of work than what "everybody" would like to happen as long
as they don't have to pay for it, taking away from other necessary or desired
expenditure of money, effort, or other resources).
Maybe when the boomers age out and become physically too old to work,
the balance will tip again.
Same thing with the internet - it has been hailed as a democratizing force,
but instead it has mostly (though not wholly) amplified the existing power
differentials and motivation structures.
Anecdotally, a lot of companies and institutions are either restricting
internal internet access or disconnecting parts of their organizations from
the internet altogether, and disabling I/O channels like USB sticks, encrypting
disks, locking out "untrusted" boot methods, etc. The official narrative
is security and preventing leaks of confidential information, but the latter
is clearly also aimed in part at whistleblowers disclosing illegal or unethical
practices. Of course that a number of employees illegitimately "steal" data
for personal and not to uncover injustices doesn't really help.
Surely there is a huge difference between the labor market here and the
labor market in continental Europe -- though labor there faces the same
squeezing forces it faces here. Think of German auto assembly line workers
making $60 an hour counting benefits.
Think Teamster Union UPS drivers -- and pity the poor, lately hired (if
they are even hired) Amazon drivers -- maybe renting vans.
The Teamsters have the only example here of what is standard in continental
Europe: centralized bargaining (aka sector wide labor agreements): the Master
National Freight Agreement: wherein everybody doing the same job in the
same locale (entire nation for long distance truckers) works under one common
contract (in French Canada too).
Imagine centralized bargaining for airlines. A few years ago Northwest
squeezed a billion dollars in give backs out of its pilots -- next year
gave a billion dollars in bonuses to a thousand execs. Couldn't happen under
centralized bargaining -- wouldn't even give the company any competitive
advantage.
"What's missing in each and every case above -- at least in the USA! --
is countervailing power."
It was deliberately destroyed. Neoliberalism needs to "atomize" work
force to function properly and destroys any solidarity among workers. Unions
are anathema for neoliberalism, because they prevent isolation and suppression
of workers.
Amazon and Uber are good examples. Both should be prosecuted under RICO
act. Wall-Mart in nor far from them.
Rising fatalities from heart disease and stroke, diabetes, drug overdoses,
accidents and other conditions caused the lower life expectancy revealed
in a report by the National Center for Health Statistics .
== quote ==
Anne Case and Angus Deaton garnered national headlines in 2015 when they
reported that the death rate of midlife non-Hispanic white Americans had
risen steadily since 1999 in contrast with the death rates of blacks, Hispanics
and Europeans. Their new study extends the data by two years and shows that
whatever is driving the mortality spike is not easing up.
... ... ..
Offering what they call a tentative but "plausible" explanation, they
write that less-educated white Americans who struggle in the job market
in early adulthood are likely to experience a "cumulative disadvantage"
over time, with health and personal problems that often lead to drug overdoses,
alcohol-related liver disease and suicide.
== end of quote ==
Greed is toxic. As anger tends to accumulate, and then explode, at some
point neoliberals might be up to a huge surprise. Trump was the first swan.
"... My observation is that the New Class (professionals, lobbyists, financiers, teachers, engineers, etc.) have ruled the country in recent decades. For much of the twentieth century this class was in some tension with corporations, and used their skills at influencing government policy to help develop and protect the welfare state, since they needed the working class as a counterweight to the natural influence of corporate money and power. However, somewhere around 1970 I think this tension collapsed, since corporate managers and professionals realized that they shared the same education, background and interests. ..."
"... This "peace treaty" between former rivals allowed the whole newly enlarged New Class to swing to the right, since they really didn't particularly need the working class politically anymore. And since it is the hallmark of this class to seek prestige, power and money while transferring risk away from themselves, the middle class and blue collar community has been the natural recipient. Free trade (well, for non-professionals, anyway), neoliberalism, ruthless private equity job cutting, etc., etc. all followed very naturally. The re-alignment of the Democratic Party towards the right was a natural part of this evolution. ..."
"... They also sense that organized politics in this country – being chiefly the province of the New Class – has left them with little leverage to change any of this. ..."
"... the New Class has very strong internal solidarity – and since somebody has to pay for these little mistakes, everyone outside that class is "fair game." ..."
"... So in that sense–to the extent that you define liberal as the ideology of the New Class (neoliberal, financial-capitalistic, big corporate-friendly but opposed to non-meritocratic biases like racism, sexism, etc.) is "liberalism", I think it is reasonable to say that it has bred resistance and anger among the "losers." As far as having "failed", well, we'll see: the New Class still controls almost all the levers of power. It has many strategies for channeling lower-class anger and I think under Trump we'll see those rolled out. ..."
"... Perhaps some evolution in "the means of production" or in how governments are influenced will ultimately develop to divide or downgrade the New Class, and break its lock on the corridors of power, but I don't see it on the horizon just yet. If anyone else does, I'd love to hear more about it. ..."
"... A little puzzled by the inclusion of teachers, alongside financiers and the like, in William Meyer's list of the New Class rulers. Enablers of those rulers, no doubt, but not visibly calling the shots. But then I'm probably just another liberal elitist failing to recognize my own hegemony, like Chris. ..."
"... I assume he meant certain professors [of economics]. Actually on @4, there's a good chapter on the topic in a Thomas Franks latest. ..."
Obviously Mr. Deerin is, on its face, utilizing a very disputable definition
of "liberal."
However, I think a stronger case could be made for something like Mr.
Deerin's argument, although it doesn't necessarily get to the same conclusion.
My observation is that the New Class (professionals, lobbyists, financiers,
teachers, engineers, etc.) have ruled the country in recent decades. For
much of the twentieth century this class was in some tension with corporations,
and used their skills at influencing government policy to help develop and
protect the welfare state, since they needed the working class as a counterweight
to the natural influence of corporate money and power. However, somewhere
around 1970 I think this tension collapsed, since corporate managers and
professionals realized that they shared the same education, background and
interests.
Vive la meritocracy. This "peace treaty" between former rivals allowed
the whole newly enlarged New Class to swing to the right, since they really
didn't particularly need the working class politically anymore. And since
it is the hallmark of this class to seek prestige, power and money while
transferring risk away from themselves, the middle class and blue collar
community has been the natural recipient. Free trade (well, for non-professionals,
anyway), neoliberalism, ruthless private equity job cutting, etc., etc.
all followed very naturally. The re-alignment of the Democratic Party towards
the right was a natural part of this evolution.
I think the 90% or so of the community who are not included in this class
are confused and bewildered and of course rather angry about it. They
also sense that organized politics in this country – being chiefly the province
of the New Class – has left them with little leverage to change any of this.
Watching the bailouts and lack of prosecutions during the GFC made
them dimly realize that the New Class has very strong internal solidarity
– and since somebody has to pay for these little mistakes, everyone outside
that class is "fair game."
So in that sense–to the extent that you define liberal as the ideology
of the New Class (neoliberal, financial-capitalistic, big corporate-friendly
but opposed to non-meritocratic biases like racism, sexism, etc.) is "liberalism",
I think it is reasonable to say that it has bred resistance and anger among
the "losers." As far as having "failed", well, we'll see: the New Class
still controls almost all the levers of power. It has many strategies for
channeling lower-class anger and I think under Trump we'll see those rolled
out.
Let me be clear, I'm not saying Donald Trump is leading an insurgency
against the New Class – but I think he tapped into something like one and
is riding it for all he can, while not really having the slightest idea
what he's doing.
Perhaps some evolution in "the means of production" or in how governments
are influenced will ultimately develop to divide or downgrade the New Class,
and break its lock on the corridors of power, but I don't see it on the
horizon just yet. If anyone else does, I'd love to hear more about it.
A little puzzled by the inclusion of teachers, alongside financiers
and the like, in William Meyer's list of the New Class rulers. Enablers
of those rulers, no doubt, but not visibly calling the shots. But then I'm
probably just another liberal elitist failing to recognize my own hegemony,
like Chris.
"... At the dawning of the Cold War, a worried Arthur Schlesinger Jr. looked out on a bleak horizon. The Soviet Union was a threat, but Schlesinger concluded that the roots of the crisis ran much deeper. "Our lives are empty of belief," he wrote in his 1949 book, The Vital Center. "They are lives of quiet desperation." ..."
"... So too would the concerns he dwelled upon: loss of community, feelings of powerlessness, a sense that politics had been drained of meaning. Even the poem he selected for his book's epigraph became a touchstone in the turbulent years to come: "Things fall apart; the center cannot hold; / Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world." ..."
"... "loss of community, feelings of powerlessness, a sense that politics had been drained of meaning. " That's called alienation. ..."
"... The American sociologist C. Wright Mills conducted a major study of alienation in modern society with White Collar in 1951, describing how modern consumption-capitalism has shaped a society where you have to sell your personality in addition to your work. Melvin Seeman was part of a surge in alienation research during the mid-20th century when he published his paper, "On the Meaning of Alienation", in 1959 (Senekal, 2010b: 7-8). Seeman used the insights of Marx, Emile Durkheim and others to construct what is often considered a model to recognize the five prominent features of alienation: powerlessness, meaninglessness, normlessness, isolation and self-estrangement (Seeman, 1959).[19] Seeman later added a sixth element (cultural estrangement), although this element does not feature prominently in later discussions of his work. ..."
Jonathan Chait's new book shows the failure of "grown up" liberalism.
BY TIMOTHY SHENK
January 10, 2017
At the dawning of the Cold War, a worried Arthur Schlesinger Jr.
looked out on a bleak horizon. The Soviet Union was a threat, but Schlesinger
concluded that the roots of the crisis ran much deeper. "Our lives are empty
of belief," he wrote in his 1949 book, The Vital Center. "They are lives
of quiet desperation." Figures he looked to for guidance-Kierkegaard,
Nietzsche, Camus-would become staples in the rhetoric of student protesters
a generation later.
So too would the concerns he dwelled upon: loss of community, feelings
of powerlessness, a sense that politics had been drained of meaning. Even
the poem he selected for his book's epigraph became a touchstone in the
turbulent years to come: "Things fall apart; the center cannot hold; / Mere
anarchy is loosed upon the world."
...
Any book published in the last month of a president's tenure is forced
to reckon with the political scene that will form in his wake. While Chait
was prescient on Trumpism in 2012, he underestimated its force in 2016,
and was similarly blindsided by the success of Bernie Sanders's campaign.
According to Chait, "The case for democratic, pluralistic, incremental,
market-friendly governance rooted in empiricism-i.e., liberalism-has never
been stronger than now." It is an odd claim to make in a season of populist
upheavals. As the most bloodless technocrat should have long ago recognized,
no policy achievement is complete without political legitimacy.
Deference to the status quo has always been a consequence of vital centrism.
So is a propensity for self-important monologues on pragmatism. Schlesinger
described his politics as "less gratifying perhaps than the emotional orgasm
of passing resolutions against Franco, monopoly, or sin, but probably more
likely to bring about actual results." But sentimental realists are never
more utopian than when they try to banish idealism from politics. Democratic
leadership does not consist of lecturing voters on what they should want.
The intersection of politics and policy, briefing books and ideology, is
where transformative candidates stake their claims.
Obama understood that in 2008, and it made him president. The passions
inspired by his first run for the White House long ago slipped out of his
control. A right-wing version of that democratic spirit gave Trump the presidency,
but it could not have happened without Clinton's antiseptic liberalism-Obamaism
minus Obama. Now Republicans are poised to eviscerate the achievements Chait
celebrates. Reality has broken the realists.
...German sociologists Georg Simmel and Ferdinand Tönnies wrote critical
works on individualization and urbanization. Simmel's The Philosophy
of Money describes how relationships become more and more mediated by
money. Tönnies' Gemeinschaft and Gesellschaft (Community and Society)
is about the loss of primary relationships such as familial bonds in
favour of goal-oriented, secondary relationships. This idea of alienation
can be observed in some other contexts, although the term may not be
as frequently used. In the context of an individual's relationships
within society, alienation can mean the unresponsiveness of society
as a whole to the individuality of each member of the society. When
collective decisions are made, it is usually impossible for the unique
needs of each person to be taken into account.
The American sociologist C. Wright Mills conducted a major study
of alienation in modern society with White Collar in 1951, describing
how modern consumption-capitalism has shaped a society where you have
to sell your personality in addition to your work. Melvin Seeman was
part of a surge in alienation research during the mid-20th century when
he published his paper, "On the Meaning of Alienation", in 1959 (Senekal,
2010b: 7-8). Seeman used the insights of Marx, Emile Durkheim and others
to construct what is often considered a model to recognize the five
prominent features of alienation: powerlessness, meaninglessness, normlessness,
isolation and self-estrangement (Seeman, 1959).[19] Seeman later added
a sixth element (cultural estrangement), although this element does
not feature prominently in later discussions of his work.
This is a weak and way too long article. That demonstrated inability to think in scientific terms such neoliberalism,
neocolonialism and end of cheap oil. Intead it quckly deteriorated into muchy propaganda. But it touches on legacy of Troskyst
Burnham, who was one of God fathers of neoliberalism.
Zelikov is the guy who whitewashed 9/11. This neocon does not use the term neoliberalism even once but he writes like
a real neoliberal Trotskyite.
Notable quotes:
"... The Managerial State ..."
"... Orwell was profoundly disturbed by Burnham's vision of the emerging "managerial state." All too convincing. Yet
he also noticed how, when Burnham described the new superstates and their demigod rulers, Burnham exhibited "a sort of fascinated
admiration." ..."
"... Burnham had predicted Nazi victory. Later, Burnham had predicted the Soviet conquest of all Eurasia. By 1947 Burnham
was calling for the U.S. to launch a preventive nuclear war against the Soviet Union to head off the coming disaster. ..."
"... Orwell saw a pattern. Such views seemed symptoms of "a major mental disease, and its roots," he argued, which, "lie
partly in cowardice and partly in the worship of power, which is not fully separable from cowardice." ..."
"... Orwell had another critique. He deplored the fact that, "The tendency of writers like Burnham, whose key concept
is 'realism,' is to overrate the part played in human affairs by sheer force." Orwell went on. "I do not say that he is wrong
all the time. But somehow his picture of the world is always slightly distorted." ..."
"... "the fact that certain rules of conduct have to be observed if human society is to hold together at all." ..."
"... Nineteen Eighty-Four. ..."
"... By that time, Burnham had become a consultant to the CIA, advising its new office for covert action. That was the
capacity in which Burnham met the young William F. Buckley. Burnham mentored Buckley. It was with Buckley that Burnham became
one of the original editors of the National Review ..."
"... Suicide of the West: An Essay on the Meaning and Destiny of Liberalism ..."
"... What about our current president? Last month he urged his listeners to be ready to fight to the death for the "values"
of the West. He named two: "individual freedom and sovereignty. ..."
"... Certainly our history counsels modesty. Americans and the American government have a very mixed and confusing record
in the way we have, in practice, related values in foreign governance to what our ..."
"... "A stable world order needs a careful balance between power and legitimacy. Legitimacy is upheld when states, no
matter how powerful, observe norms of state behavior." India, Saran said, had the "civilizational attributes." ..."
My first prophet was a man named James Burnham. In 1941 Burnham was 35 years old. From a wealthy family -- railroad
money -- he was a star student at Princeton, then on to Balliol College, Oxford. Burnham was an avowed Communist. He joined
with Trotsky during the 1930s.
By 1941, Burnham had moved on, as he published his first great book of prophecy, called The Managerial State
. The book made him a celebrity. It was widely discussed on both sides of the Atlantic.
Burnham's vision of the future is one where the old ideologies, like socialism, have been left behind. The rulers are
really beyond all that. They are the managerial elite, the technocrats, the scientists, and the bureaucrats who manage
the all-powerful enterprises and agencies.
You know this vision. You have seen it so often at the movies. It is the vision in all those science fiction dystopias.
You know, with the gilded masterminds ruling all from their swank towers and conference rooms.
It's a quite contemporary vision. For instance, it is not far at all from the way I think the rulers of China imagine
themselves and their future.
In this and other writings, Burnham held up Stalin's Soviet Union and Hitler's Germany as the pure exemplars of these
emerging managerial states. They were showing the way to the future. By comparison, FDR's New Deal was a primitive version.
And he thought it would lose.
Burnham's views were not so unusual among the leading thinkers of the 1940s, like Joseph Schumpeter or Karl Polanyi.
All were pessimistic about the future of free societies, including Friedrich Hayek, who really believed that once-free
countries were on the "road to serfdom." But Burnham took the logic further.
Just after the second world war ended, my other prophet decided to answer Burnham. You know him as George Orwell.
Eric Blair, who used George Orwell as his pen name, was about Burnham's age. Their backgrounds were very different.
Orwell was English. Poor. Orwell's lungs were pretty rotten and he would not live long. Orwell was a democratic socialist
who came to loathe Soviet communism. He had volunteered to fight in Spain, was shot through the throat. Didn't stop his
writing.
Orwell was profoundly disturbed by Burnham's vision of the emerging "managerial state." All too convincing. Yet
he also noticed how, when Burnham described the new superstates and their demigod rulers, Burnham exhibited "a sort of
fascinated admiration."
Orwell
wrote : For Burnham, "Communism may be wicked, but at any rate it is big: it is a terrible, all-devouring
monster which one fights against but which one cannot help admiring." To Orwell, Burnham's mystical picture of "terrifying,
irresistible power" amounted to "an act of homage, and even of self-abasement." irresistible power" amounted to "an act
of homage, and even of self-abasement."
Burnham had predicted Nazi victory. Later, Burnham had predicted the Soviet conquest of all Eurasia. By 1947 Burnham
was calling for the U.S. to launch a preventive nuclear war against the Soviet Union to head off the coming disaster.
Orwell saw a pattern. Such views seemed symptoms of "a major mental disease, and its roots," he argued, which, "lie
partly in cowardice and partly in the worship of power, which is not fully separable from cowardice."
Orwell thought that "power worship blurs political judgment because it leads, almost unavoidably, to the belief that
present trends will continue. Whoever is winning at the moment will always seem to be invincible."
Orwell had another critique. He deplored the fact that, "The tendency of writers like Burnham, whose key concept
is 'realism,' is to overrate the part played in human affairs by sheer force." Orwell went on. "I do not say that he is
wrong all the time. But somehow his picture of the world is always slightly distorted."
Finally, Orwell thought Burnham overestimated the resilience of the managerial state model and underestimated the qualities
of open and civilized societies. Burnham's vision
did not allow enough play for "the fact that certain rules of conduct have to be observed if human society is to
hold together at all."
Having written these critical essays, Orwell then tried to make his case against Burnham in another way. This anti-Burnham
argument became a novel -- the novel called Nineteen Eighty-Four.
That book came out in 1949. Orwell died the next year.
By that time, Burnham had become a consultant to the CIA, advising its new office for covert action. That was the
capacity in which Burnham met the young William F. Buckley. Burnham mentored Buckley. It was with Buckley that Burnham
became one of the original editors of the National Review and a major conservative commentator. In 1983, President
Reagan awarded Burnham the Presidential Medal of Freedom.
Not that Burnham's core vision had changed. In 1964, he published another book of prophecy. This was entitled Suicide
of the West: An Essay on the Meaning and Destiny of Liberalism . The Soviet Union and its allies had the will to power.
Liberalism and its defenders did not. "The primary issue before Western civilization today, and before its member nations,
is survival." (Sound familiar?)
And it was liberalism, Burnham argued, with its self-criticism and lack of commitment, that would pull our civilization
down from within. Suicide.
So was Burnham wrong? Was Orwell right? This is a first-class historical question. Burnham's ideal of the "managerial
state" is so alive today.
State the questions another way: Do open societies really work better than closed ones? Is a more open and civilized
world really safer and better for Americans? If we think yes, then what is the best way to prove that point?
My answer comes in three parts. The first is about how to express our core values. American leaders tend to describe
their global aims as the promotion of the right values. Notice that these are values in how other countries are governed.
President Obama's
call for an "international order of laws and institutions," had the objective of winning a clash of domestic
governance models around the world. This clash he called: "authoritarianism versus liberalism."
Yet look at how many values
he felt "liberalism" had to include. For Obama the "road of true democracy," included a commitment to "liberty, equality,
justice, and fairness" and curbing the "excesses of capitalism."
What about our current president?
Last month
he urged his listeners to be ready to fight to the death for the "values" of the West. He named two: "individual freedom
and sovereignty. "
A week later, two of his chief aides, Gary Cohn and H.R. McMaster,
doubled
down on the theme that America was promoting, with its friends, the values that "drive progress throughout the world."
They too had a laundry list. They omitted "sovereignty." But then, narrowing the list only to the "most important," they
listed: "[T]he dignity of every person equality of women innovation freedom of speech and of religion and free and fair
markets."
By contrast, the anti-liberal core values seem simple. The anti-liberals are for authority and against
anarchy and disorder. And they are for community and against the subversive, disruptive outsider.
There are of course many ways to define a "community" -- including tribal, religious, political, or professional. It
is a source of identity, of common norms of behavior, of shared ways of life.
Devotees of freedom and liberalism do not dwell as much on "community." Except to urge that everybody be included,
and treated fairly.
But beliefs about "community" have always been vital to human societies. In many ways, the last 200 years have been
battles about how local communities try to adapt or fight back against growing global pressures -- especially economic
and cultural, but often political and even military.
So much of the divide between anti-liberals or liberals is cultural. Little has to do with "policy" preferences. Mass
politics are defined around magnetic poles of cultural attraction. If Americans engage this culture war on a global scale,
I plead for modesty and simplicity. As few words as possible, as fundamental as possible.
Certainly our history counsels modesty. Americans and the American government have a very mixed and confusing record
in the way we have, in practice, related values in foreign governance to what our government does.
Also, until the late 19th century, "democracy" was never at the core of liberal thinking. Liberal thinkers were very
interested in the design of republics. But classical liberal thinkers, including many of the American founders, always
had a troubled relationship with democracy. There were always two issues.
First, liberals were devoted, above all, to liberty of thought and reason. Pace Tom Paine, the people were
often regarded as intolerant, ill-informed, and superstitious -- unreliable judges of scientific truth, historical facts,
moral duty, and legal disputes. The other problem is that democracy used to be considered a synonym for mob rule. Elections
can be a supreme check on tyranny. But sometimes the people have exalted their dictators and have not cared overmuch about
the rule of law. It therefore still puzzles me: Why is there so much debate about which people are "ready for democracy"?
Few of the old theorists thought any people were ready for such a thing.
It was thought, though, that any civilized people might be persuaded to reject tyranny. Any civilized community might
prefer a suitably designed and confining constitution, limiting powers and working at a reliable rule of law.
By the way, that "rule of law" was a value that Mr. Cohn and General McMaster left off of their "most important" list
-- yet is anything more essential to our way of life?
Aside from the relation with democracy, the other great ideal that any liberal order finds necessary, yet troubling,
is the one about community: nationalism.
Consider the case of Poland. For 250 years, Poland has been a great symbol to the rest of Europe. For much of Polish
and European history, nationalism was an ally of liberalism. Versus Czarist tyranny, versus aristocratic oligarchs.
But sometimes not. Today, Poland's governing Law and Justice party is all about being anti-Russian, anti-Communist,
and pro-Catholic. They are all about "authority" and "community." At the expense of ? Poland's president has just had to
intervene
when the rule of law itself seemed to be at stake.
We Americans and our friends should define what we stand for. Define it in a way that builds a really big tent. In 1989,
working for the elder President Bush, I was able to get the phrase, "commonwealth of free nations," into a couple of the
president's speeches. It didn't stick. Nearly 20 years later, in 2008, the late Harvard historian Ernest May and I came
up with a better formulation. We thought that through human history the most adaptable and successful societies had turned
out to be the ones that were "open and civilized."
Rather than the word, "liberal," the word "open" seems more useful. It is the essence of liberty. Indian prime minister
Narendra Modi uses it in his speeches; Karl Popper
puts it at the core of his philosophy; Anne-Marie
Slaughter makes it a touchstone
in her latest book. That's a big tent right there.
Also the ideal of being "civilized." Not such an old-fashioned ideal. It gestures to the yearning for community. Not
only a rule of law, also community norms, the norms that reassure society and regulate rulers -- whether in a constitution
or in holy scripture.
Chinese leaders extol the value of being civilized -- naturally, they commingle it with Sinification. Muslims take pride
in a heritage that embraces norms of appropriate conduct by rulers. And, of course, in an open society, community norms
can be contested and do evolve.
The retired Indian statesman, Shyam Saran,
recently lectured on,
"Is a China-centric world inevitable?" To Saran, "A stable world order needs a careful balance between power and
legitimacy. Legitimacy is upheld when states, no matter how powerful, observe norms of state behavior." India, Saran
said, had the "civilizational attributes."
... ... ...
Philip Zelikow is the White Burkett Miller Professor of History at the University of Virginia, and is a former
executive director of the 9/11 Commission.
"... "number of refugees and displaced persons increased dramatically over the decade, doubling from 2007 to 2015, to approximately 60 million people. There are nine countries with more than 10 per cent of their population classified as refugees or displaced persons with Somalia and South Sudan having more than 20 per cent of their population displaced and Syria with over 60 per cent displaced." ..."
"... The term neoliberalism was coined at a meeting in Paris in 1938 . Among the delegates were two men who came to define the ideology, Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek. Both exiles from Austria, they saw social democracy, exemplified by Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal and the gradual development of Britain's welfare state, as manifestations of a collectivism that occupied the same spectrum as nazism and communism. ..."
"... Neoliberalism is not a collection of theories meant to improve the economy. Instead, it should be understood as a class strategy designed to redistribute wealth upward toward an increasingly narrow fraction of population (top 1%). It is the Marxist idea of "class struggle" turned on its head and converted into a perverted "revolt of the elite," unsatisfied with the peace of the pie it is getting from the society. While previously excessive greed was morally condemned, neoliberalism employed a slick trick of adopting "reverse," Nietzschean Ubermench morality in bastartized form propagated in the USA under the name of Randism. ..."
"... This neoliberal transformation of the society into a top 1% (or, more correctly, 0.01%) "have and have more" and "the rest" undermined and exploited by financial oligarchy with near complete indifference to what happens with the most unprotected lower quintile of the population. The neoliberal reformers don't care about failures and contradictions of the economic system which drive the majority of country population into abject poverty, as it happened in Russia. Nor do they care about their actions such as blowing financial bubbles, like in the USA in 2008 can move national economics toward disaster. They have a somewhat childish, simplistic "greed is good" mentality: they just want to have their (as large as possible) piece of economic pie fast and everything else be damned. In a way, they are criminals and neoliberalism is a highly criminogenic creed, but it tried to conceal the racket and plunder it inflicts of the societies under the dense smoke screen of "free market" newspeak. ..."
"... That means that in most countries neoliberalism is an unstable social order as plunder can't continue indefinitely. It was partially reversed in Chile, Russia, and several other countries. It was never fully adopted in northern Europe. ..."
"... One can see an example of this smoke screen in Thatcher's dictum of neoliberalism: "There is no such thing as society. There are only individuals and families." In foreign policy neoliberalism behaves like brutal imperialism which subdue countries either by debt slavery or direct military intervention. In a neoliberal view the world consist of four concentric cycles which in order of diminishing importance are . ..."
"... Finance is accepted as the most important institution of the civilization which should govern all other spheres of life. It is clear that such a one-dimensional view is wrong, but neoliberals like communists before them have a keen sense of mission and made its "long march through the institutions" and changed the way Americans think (Using the four "M" strategy -- money, media, marketing, and management) ..."
"... A well-oiled machine of foundations, lobbies, think-tanks, economic departments of major universities, publications, political cadres, lawyers and activist organizations slowly and strategically took over nation after nation. A broad alliance of neo-liberals, neo-conservatives and the religious right successfully manufactured a new common sense, assaulted Enlightenment values and formed a new elite, the top layer of society, where this "greed is good" culture is created and legitimized. ..."
"... Normally these decisions could be made after the election, and ideally after the selection of a National Economic Advisor, but, of course, these are not normal times. ..."
"... Jeb stated that Trump previously was one of Clinton's largest supporters, not only by verbally expressing that he hoped she won the election, but financially contributing to her campaign. Bush explained that it seems "too good to be true" that Trump suddenly doesn't support Hillary and has a plan "to make America great again." He believes it is much more likely that he is part of the Hillary campaign and is doing "his part" to ensure his friend elected in November. ..."
"... that the United States is now an "oligarchy" in which "unlimited political bribery" has created "a complete subversion of our political system as a payoff to major contributors." Both Democrats and Republicans, Carter said, "look upon this unlimited money as a great benefit to themselves." ..."
"... Carter was responding to a question from Hartmann about recent Supreme Court decisions on campaign financing like Citizens United . ..."
"... HARTMANN: Our Supreme Court has now said, "unlimited money in politics." It seems like a violation of principles of democracy. Your thoughts on that? ..."
"... CARTER: It violates the essence of what made America a great country in its political system. Now it's just an oligarchy, with unlimited political bribery being the essence of getting the nominations for president or to elect the president. And the same thing applies to governors and U.S. senators and congress members. So now we've just seen a complete subversion of our political system as a payoff to major contributors, who want and expect and sometimes get favors for themselves after the election's over. The incumbents, Democrats and Republicans, look upon this unlimited money as a great benefit to themselves. Somebody's who's already in Congress has a lot more to sell to an avid contributor than somebody who's just a challenger ..."
"... More than one in five U.S. millennials would be open to backing a communist candidate, and a third believe George W. Bush killed more people than Joseph Stalin, according to a new poll released Monday. ..."
"... Overall, the poll found, Americans remain broadly hostile to socialism and communism, even though 67 percent of the populace believes rich people don't pay "their fair share" and 52 percent believe America's economic system works against them. ..."
...The U.S. Military is deployed globally with bases in the majority of countries
and "partnership" arrangements to train and advise most of the world's armed
forces. The U.S. is the dominant force in NATO and of the United Nations' armed
forces. A recent report by the Institute for Economics and Peace found a mere
ten nations on the planet are not at war and completely free from conflict.
The report cites an historic 10-year deterioration in world peace, with the
"number of refugees and displaced persons increased dramatically over the
decade, doubling from 2007 to 2015, to approximately 60 million people. There
are nine countries with more than 10 per cent of their population classified
as refugees or displaced persons with Somalia and South Sudan having more than
20 per cent of their population displaced and Syria with over 60 per cent displaced."
[1] According
to the report, the United States spends an outrageously high percentage of the
globe's military expenditures -- 38 percent -- while the next largest military
spender, China, accounted for considerably less, 10 percent of the global share.
[2]
....As George Monbiot explained:
"The term neoliberalism was coined at
a meeting in Paris in 1938 . Among the delegates were two men who came to
define the ideology, Ludwig von Mises and Friedrich Hayek. Both exiles from
Austria, they saw social democracy, exemplified by Franklin Roosevelt's New
Deal and the gradual development of Britain's welfare state, as manifestations
of a collectivism that occupied the same spectrum as nazism and communism.
"In
The Road to Serfdom , published in 1944, Hayek argued that government
planning, by crushing individualism, would lead inexorably to totalitarian
control. Like Mises's book
Bureaucracy
, The Road to Serfdom was widely read. It came to the attention of some
very wealthy people, who saw in the philosophy an opportunity to free themselves
from regulation and tax. When, in 1947, Hayek founded the first organisation
that would spread the doctrine of neoliberalism!the Mont Pelerin Society!it
was supported financially by millionaires and their foundations.
"With their help, he began to create what Daniel Stedman Jones describes
in
Masters of the Universe as "a kind of neoliberal International": a transatlantic
network of academics, businessmen, journalists and activists. The movement's
rich backers funded a series of think tanks which would refine and promote
the ideology. Among them were the American Enterprise Institute, the Heritage
Foundation, the Cato Institute, the Institute of Economic Affairs, the Centre
for Policy Studies and the Adam Smith Institute. They also financed academic
positions and departments, particularly at the universities of Chicago and
Virginia.
"As it evolved, neoliberalism became more strident. Hayek's view that
governments should regulate competition to prevent monopolies from forming
gave way, among American apostles such as Milton Friedman, to the belief
that monopoly power could be seen as a reward for efficiency."
[3]
As an ideology, neoliberalism borrows heavily from Trotskyism. "One can view
neoliberalism as Trotskyism refashioned for elite."
[4] Instead
of " proletarians of all countries unite " we have [the] slogan " neoliberal
elites of all countries unite.
[5] Stalin
purged Trotsky, but some of his disciples made the transition to become founding
intellectuals of neoliberal ideology, and in particular its "neo-conservative"
wing. "Neoliberalism is also an example of emergence of ideologies, not from
their persuasive power or inner logic, but from the private interests of the
ruling elite. Political pressure and money created the situation in which intellectually
bankrupt ideas could prevail much like Catholicism prevailed during Dark Ages
in Europe. In a way, this is return to Dark Ages on a new level."
[6]
Trotsky's elitism and contempt for the masses led naturally to neoliberalism.
As M.J. Olgin pointed out: Today Trotskyism no more confines itself to "informing"
the bourgeoisie. Today Trotskyism is the center and the rallying point for the
enemies of the Soviet Union, of the proletarian revolution in capitalist countries,
of the Communist International. Trotskyism is trying not only to disintegrate
the dictatorship of the proletariat in the Soviet Union, but also to disintegrate
the forces that make for the dictatorship of the proletariat the world over.
[7] Neoliberalism
also borrows from the ideology of fascism. As Giovanni Gentile, "The Philosopher
of Fascism" expressed in a quote often attributed to Mussolini: "Fascism should
more properly be called corporatism , since it is the merger of state and corporate
power." Gentile also stated in The Origins and Doctrine of Fascism , that "mankind
only progresses through division, and progress is achieved through the clash
and victory of one side over another."
[8]
Neoliberalism is a new form of corporatism based on the ideology of market
fundamentalism, dominance of finance and cult of rich ("greed is good") instead
of the ideology on racial or national superiority typical for classic corporatism.
Actually, some elements of the idea of "national superiority" were preserved
in a form superiority of "corporate management" and top speculators over other
people. In a way, neoliberalism considers bankers and corporations top management
to be a new Aryan race. As it relies on financial mechanisms and banks instead
of brute force of subduing people the practice of neoliberalism outside of the
G7 is also called neocolonialism. Neoliberal practice within G7 is called casino
capitalism, an apt term that underscore [s] the role of finance and stock exchange
in this new social order. Neoliberalism is an example of emergence of ideologies
not from their persuasive power or inner logic, but from the private interests
of ruling elite. Political pressure and money created the situation in which
intellectually bankrupt ideas could prevail .
Neoliberalism is not a collection of theories meant to improve the
economy. Instead, it should be understood as a class strategy designed to
redistribute wealth upward toward an increasingly narrow fraction of population
(top 1%). It is the Marxist idea of "class struggle" turned on its head
and converted into a perverted "revolt of the elite," unsatisfied with the
peace of the pie it is getting from the society. While previously excessive
greed was morally condemned, neoliberalism employed a slick trick of adopting
"reverse," Nietzschean Ubermench morality in bastartized form propagated
in the USA under the name of Randism. [9]
This neoliberal transformation of the society into a top 1% (or,
more correctly, 0.01%) "have and have more" and "the rest" undermined and
exploited by financial oligarchy with near complete indifference to what
happens with the most unprotected lower quintile of the population. The
neoliberal reformers don't care about failures and contradictions of the
economic system which drive the majority of country population into abject
poverty, as it happened in Russia. Nor do they care about their actions
such as blowing financial bubbles, like in the USA in 2008 can move national
economics toward disaster. They have a somewhat childish, simplistic "greed
is good" mentality: they just want to have their (as large as possible)
piece of economic pie fast and everything else be damned. In a way, they
are criminals and neoliberalism is a highly criminogenic creed, but it tried
to conceal the racket and plunder it inflicts of the societies under the
dense smoke screen of "free market" newspeak.
That means that in most countries neoliberalism is an unstable social
order as plunder can't continue indefinitely. It was partially reversed
in Chile, Russia, and several other countries. It was never fully adopted
in northern Europe.
One can see an example of this smoke screen in Thatcher's dictum
of neoliberalism: "There is no such thing as society. There are only individuals
and families." In foreign policy neoliberalism behaves like brutal imperialism
which subdue countries either by debt slavery or direct military intervention.
In a neoliberal view the world consist of four concentric cycles which in
order of diminishing importance are .
Finance
Economics
Society
Planet
Finance is accepted as the most important institution of the civilization
which should govern all other spheres of life. It is clear that such a one-dimensional
view is wrong, but neoliberals like communists before them have a keen sense
of mission and made its "long march through the institutions" and changed
the way Americans think (Using the four "M" strategy -- money, media, marketing,
and management)
A well-oiled machine of foundations, lobbies, think-tanks, economic
departments of major universities, publications, political cadres, lawyers
and activist organizations slowly and strategically took over nation after
nation. A broad alliance of neo-liberals, neo-conservatives and the religious
right successfully manufactured a new common sense, assaulted Enlightenment
values and formed a new elite, the top layer of society, where this "greed
is good" culture is created and legitimized. [10]
Donald Trump is a visible product of this culture, but clearly is not the
choice of the elite ruling class to serve as their "front man" for President.
Rather, his role seems to have been to polarize the electorate in such a way
as to assure Hillary Clinton the election, just as Bernie Sanders played a role
of mobilizing the left-neoliberal camp and then sheep-dogging it into Hillary's
camp. As Bruce A. Dixon explained:
"Bernie Sanders is this election's Democratic sheepdog. The sheepdog
is a card the Democratic party plays every presidential primary season when
there's no White House Democrat running for re-election. The sheepdog is
a presidential candidate running ostensibly to the left of the establishment
Democrat to whom the billionaires will award the nomination. Sheepdogs are
herders, and the sheepdog candidate is charged with herding activists and
voters back into the Democratic fold who might otherwise drift leftward
and outside of the Democratic party, either staying home or trying to build
something outside the two-party box."
[11]
Once you realize what the principle contradiction in the world is, and how
the game of bourgeois "democracy" is played, the current election become as
predictable and blatantly scripted as professional wrestling. As Victor Wallace
explained:
"An extraordinary feature of the U.S. electoral process is that the two
dominant parties collude to dictate – via their own bipartisan "commission"
– who is allowed to participate in the officially recognized presidential
debates. Needless to say, the two parties set impossible barriers to the
participation of
any candidates other than their own . Most potential voters are thereby
prevented from acquainting themselves with alternatives to the dominant
consensus.
"This practice has taken on glaring proportions in the 2016 campaign,
which has been marked by justified public distrust of both the dominant-party
tickets. Preventing election-theft would initially require breaking up the
bipartisan stranglehold over who can access the tens of millions of voters.
"Another distinctive U.S. trait is the absence of any constitutional
guarantee of the right to vote. Instead, a multiplicity of state laws govern
voter-eligibility, as well as ballot-access. A few states set ballot-access
requirements so high as to effectively disqualify their residents from supporting
otherwise viable national candidacies. As for voter-eligibility, it is deliberately
narrowed through the time-honored practice of using "states' rights" to
impose racist agendas. Most states deny voting rights to ex-convicts, a
practice that currently disenfranchises some 6 million citizens, disproportionately
from communities of color. More recently, targeting the same constituencies,
many states have passed onerous and unnecessary voter-ID laws.
"The role of money in filtering out viable candidacies is well known.
It was reinforced by the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision of 2010,
which opened the gate to unlimited corporate contributions.
"The priorities of corporate media point in a similar direction. Even
apart from their taste for campaign-advertising, their orientation toward
celebrity and sensationalism prompts them to give far more air-time to well
known figures – the more outrageous, the better – than to even the most
viable candidates who present serious alternatives. Trump's candidacy was
thus "made" by the media, even as they kept the Sanders challenge to Clinton
as deep in the shadows as possible ."
[12]
Moreover, the media, which in the U.S. is 90% owned by just six mega-corporations,
[13] cooperates
closely with the dominant establishment of the two parties in framing the questions
that are posed in the debates. And they explicitly maintain the fiction that
the "commission" running the debates is "non-partisan" when in fact it is bipartisan.
[14]
"Turning finally to the voting process itself, the longest-running scandal
is the holding of elections on a workday. In recent years, the resulting
inconvenience has been partially offset by the institution of early voting,
which however has the disadvantage of facilitating premature choices and
of being subject to varied and volatile rules set by state legislatures.
"The actual casting of votes on Election Day is further subject to a
number of possible abuses. These include: 1) insufficient polling places
in poor neighborhoods, sometimes resulting in waiting periods so long that
individuals no longer have the time to vote; 2) the sometimes aggressive
challenging of voters' eligibility by interested parties; 3) the use of
provisional ballots which may easily end up not being counted; and 4), perhaps
most significantly, the increasingly complete reliance on computerized voting,
which allows for manipulation of the results (via "proprietary" programs)
in a manner that cannot be detected. (The probability of such manipulation
– based on discrepancies between exit-polls and official tallies – was documented
by
Marc Crispin Miller in his book on the 2004 election.
"The corporate media add a final abuse in their rush – in presidential
races – to announce results in some states before the voting process has
been completed throughout the country."
[15]
Despite multiple releases of hacked e-mails by WikiLeaks revealing the whole
process in detail, it seems to have little effect on the masses or on the game.
The most recent batch come from Obama's personal e-mail account and reveal that
the Bush administration contacted the future president multiple times before
the election in 2008, secretly organizing the transition of power. In one e-mail
President Bush states:
" We are now at the point of deciding how to staff economic policy during
the transition, who should be the point of contact with Treasury and how
to blend the transition and campaign economic policy talent.
Normally these decisions could be made after the election, and ideally
after the selection of a National Economic Advisor, but, of course, these
are not normal times. "
[16]
Hillary Clinton's response has been to claim that the WikiLeaks' exposures
come from the "highest levels of the Kremlin, and they are designed to influence
our election,"
[17] and to accuse Trump of being Putin's puppet. Not exactly a denial of
the accuracy of the content of the e-mails, nor does she present proof of Russia's
involvement. And even if true, is this any different than the well-documented
cases of Israel's long-standing involvement in spying on the U.S. and acting
to influence U.S. elections or the recent allegations of U.S. interference in
Israel's election,
[18] or for
that matter U.S. interference with elections and forced regime changes in countries
all over the world. Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks, has recently released
a video on YouTube , asserting that his sources are DNC whistleblowers not Russians.
[19]
The strategy of picking the "lesser evil" is a losing strategy. Is it a coincidence
that all the corporate CEO's and most of the "left-wing" neoliberals agree on
Trump being the "lesser evil?" In reality, Trump is less hawkish than Hillary.
At least he doesn't seem to have any ambition to lock horns with Russia over
Syria. Indeed, the WikiLeaks' exposures show Trump to be Hillary's puppet, not
Putin's. This was alleged by Jeb Bush, back during the Republican primaries:
Jeb stated that Trump previously was one of Clinton's largest supporters,
not only by verbally expressing that he hoped she won the election, but financially
contributing to her campaign. Bush explained that it seems "too good to be true"
that Trump suddenly doesn't support Hillary and has a plan "to make America
great again." He believes it is much more likely that he is part of the Hillary
campaign and is doing "his part" to ensure his friend elected in November.
[20]
Nonetheless, the Bush family have, since Jeb's defeat, made known their preference
for Hillary as have many of the Republican Party establishment. The illusion
of "democracy" is wearing thin:
Former president Jimmy Carter said Tuesday on the nationally syndicated
radio show the Thom
Hartmann Program that the United States is now an "oligarchy" in
which "unlimited political bribery" has created "a complete subversion of
our political system as a payoff to major contributors." Both Democrats
and Republicans, Carter said, "look upon this unlimited money as a great
benefit to themselves."
Carter was responding to a question from Hartmann about recent Supreme
Court decisions on campaign financing like Citizens United .
Transcript:
HARTMANN: Our Supreme Court has now said, "unlimited money in politics."
It seems like a violation of principles of democracy. Your thoughts on that?
CARTER: It violates the essence of what made America a great country
in its political system. Now it's just an oligarchy, with unlimited political
bribery being the essence of getting the nominations for president or to
elect the president. And the same thing applies to governors and U.S. senators
and congress members. So now we've just seen a complete subversion of our
political system as a payoff to major contributors, who want and expect
and sometimes get favors for themselves after the election's over. The incumbents,
Democrats and Republicans, look upon this unlimited money as a great benefit
to themselves. Somebody's who's already in Congress has a lot more to sell
to an avid contributor than somebody who's just a challenger .
[21]
Not only is the illusion of democracy wearing thin, but so is the effectiveness
of anti-communist brainwashing:
More than one in five U.S. millennials would be open to backing a
communist candidate, and a third believe George W. Bush killed more people
than Joseph Stalin, according to a new poll released Monday.
The poll , commissioned by the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation
and carried out by YouGov, surveyed Americans of all ages about their attitudes
towards communism, socialism, and the American economic system in general.
Overall, the poll found, Americans remain broadly hostile to socialism
and communism, even though 67 percent of the populace believes rich people
don't pay "their fair share" and 52 percent believe America's economic system
works against them. [22]
... ... ...
Notes
[1]
Bernish, Claire, "Only 10 Countries in the Entire World Are Not Currently
at War," AntiMedia.org, June 9, 2016
[7]
Olgin, Moissaye Joseph, Trotskyism: Counter-Revolution in Disguise,
Workers Library Publishers, New York, 1935
[8]
Macrohistory and World Timeline, "Giovanni Gentile an Italian Fascism,"
Fascism and Philosophy
[9]
Referring to Ayn Rand, who wrote: "Individual rights are not subject
to a public vote; a majority has no right to vote away the rights of a minority;
the political function of rights is precisely to protect minorities from
oppression by majorities (and the smallest minority on earth is the individual),"
and: "Civilization is the progress toward a society of privacy. The savage's
whole existence is public, ruled by the laws of his tribe. Civilization
is the process of setting man free from men."
[10]
"Neoliberalism as a New, More Dangerous, Form of Corporatism,"
[11]
Dixon, Bruce A., "Presidential Candidate Bernie Sanders: Sheepdogging
for Hillary and the Democrats in 2016," Black Agenda Report, 05/06/2015
[16]
"WikiLeaks Bombshell: 'There Is No US Election'," YourNewsWire.com,
October 21, 2016
[17]
Carroll, Lauren, "Hillary Clinton blames high-up Russians for WikiLeaks
releases," Politifact, October 19, 2016
[18]
Dinan, Stephan, "Obama admin. sent taxpayer money to campaign to oust
Netanyahu," The Washington Times – Tuesday, July 12, 2016
[19]
"Julian assange exposes Hillary! the hackers aren't russian, they are
DNC party whistleblowers ," You Tube, October 21, 2016
[20]
Williams, Chrissie, "Jeb Bush Allegedly Believes Donald Trump's Campaign
May be a Conspiracy Hillary was Handpicked to Win," Inquisitor, August 13,
2016
[26]
Tse-tung, Mao, "Speech at the Meeting of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR
in Celebration of the 40th Anniversary of the Great October Socialist Revolution"
(November 6, 1957), Quotations from Mao Tse-tung, Foreign Language Press,
Peking (1966)
[27]
>Ibid., "Interview with a Hsinhua News Agency correspondent(September 29,
1958)."
"... By Manuela Cadelli, President of the Magistrates' Union of Belgium ..."
"... Every totalitarianism starts as distortion of language, as in the novel by George Orwell. Neoliberalism has its Newspeak and strategies of communication that enable it to deform reality. In this spirit, every budgetary cut is represented as an instance of modernization of the sectors concerned. If some of the most deprived are no longer reimbursed for medical expenses and so stop visiting the dentist, this is modernization of social security in action! ..."
By Manuela Cadelli, President of the Magistrates' Union of Belgium
The time for rhetorical reservations is over. Things have to be called by their name to make it
possible for a co-ordinated democratic reaction to be initiated, above all in the public services.
Liberalism was a doctrine derived from the philosophy of Enlightenment, at once political and
economic, which aimed at imposing on the state the necessary distance for ensuring respect for liberties
and the coming of democratic emancipation. It was the motor for the arrival, and the continuing progress,
of Western democracies.
Neoliberalism is a form of economism in our day that strikes at every moment at every sector of
our community. It is a form of extremism.
Fascism may be defined as the subordination of every part of the State to a totalitarian and nihilistic
ideology.
I argue that neoliberalism is a species of fascism because the economy has brought under subjection
not only the government of democratic countries but also every aspect of our thought.
The state is now at the disposal of the economy and of finance, which treat it as a subordinate
and lord over it to an extent that puts the common good in jeopardy.
The austerity that is demanded by the financial milieu has become a supreme value, replacing politics.
Saving money precludes pursuing any other public objective. It is reaching the point where claims
are being made that the principle of budgetary orthodoxy should be included in state constitutions.
A mockery is being made of the notion of public service.
The nihilism that results from this makes possible the dismissal of universalism and the most
evident humanistic values: solidarity, fraternity, integration and respect for all and for differences.
There is no place any more even for classical economic theory: work was formerly an element in
demand, and to that extent there was respect for workers; international finance has made of it a
mere adjustment variable.
Every totalitarianism starts as distortion of language, as in the novel by George Orwell. Neoliberalism
has its Newspeak and strategies of communication that enable it to deform reality. In this spirit,
every budgetary cut is represented as an instance of modernization of the sectors concerned. If some
of the most deprived are no longer reimbursed for medical expenses and so stop visiting the dentist,
this is modernization of social security in action!
Abstraction predominates in public discussion so as to occlude the implications for human beings.
Thus, in relation to migrants, it is imperative that the need for hosting them does not lead to
public appeals that our finances could not accommodate. Is it In the same way that other individuals
qualify for assistance out of considerations of national solidarity?
The cult of evaluation
Social Darwinism predominates, assigning the most stringent performance requirements to everyone
and everything: to be weak is to fail. The foundations of our culture are overturned: every humanist
premise is disqualified or demonetized because neoliberalism has the monopoly of rationality and
realism. Margaret Thatcher said it in 1985: "There is no alternative." Everything else is utopianism,
unreason and regression. The virtue of debate and conflicting perspectives are discredited because
history is ruled by necessity.
This subculture harbours an existential threat of its own: shortcomings of performance condemn
one to disappearance while at the same time everyone is charged with inefficiency and obliged to
justify everything. Trust is broken. Evaluation reigns, and with it the bureaucracy which imposes
definition and research of a plethora of targets, and indicators with which one must comply. Creativity
and the critical spirit are stifled by management. And everyone is beating his breast about the wastage
and inertia of which he is guilty.
The neglect of justice
The neoliberal ideology generates a normativity that competes with the laws of parliament. The
democratic power of law is compromised. Given that they represent a concrete embodiment of liberty
and emancipation, and given the potential to prevent abuse that they impose, laws and procedures
have begun to look like obstacles.
The power of the judiciary, which has the ability to oppose the will of the ruling circles, must
also be checkmated. The Belgian judicial system is in any case underfunded. In 2015 it came last
in a European ranking that included all states located between the Atlantic and the Urals. In two
years the government has managed to take away the independence given to it under the Constitution
so that it can play the counterbalancing role citizens expect of it. The aim of this undertaking
is clearly that there should no longer be justice in Belgium.
A caste above the Many
But the dominant class doesn't prescribe for itself the same medicine it wants to see ordinary
citizens taking: well-ordered austerity begins with others. The economist Thomas Piketty has perfectly
described this in his study of inequality and capitalism in the twenty-first century (French edition,
Seuil, 2013).
In spite of the crisis of 2008 and the hand-wringing that followed, nothing was done to police
the financial community and submit them to the requirements of the common good. Who paid? Ordinary
people, you and me.
And while the Belgian State consented to 7 billion-euro ten-year tax breaks for multinationals,
ordinary litigants have seen surcharges imposed on access to justice (increased court fees, 21% taxation
on legal fees). From now on, to obtain redress the victims of injustice are going to have to be rich.
All this in a state where the number of public representatives breaks all international records.
In this particular area, no evaluation and no costs studies are reporting profit. One example: thirty
years after the introduction of the federal system, the provincial institutions survive. Nobody can
say what purpose they serve. Streamlining and the managerial ideology have conveniently stopped at
the gates of the political world.
Terrorism, this other nihilism that exposes our weakness in affirming our values, is likely to
aggravate the process by soon making it possible for all violations of our liberties, all violations
of our rights, to circumvent the powerless qualified judges, further reducing social protection for
the poor, who will be sacrificed to "the security ideal".
Salvation in commitment
These developments certainly threaten the foundations of our democracy, but do they condemn us
to discouragement and despair?
Certainly not. 500 years ago, at the height of the defeats that brought down most Italian states
with the imposition of foreign occupation for more than three centuries, Niccolo Machiavelli urged
virtuous men to defy fate and stand up against the adversity of the times, to prefer action and daring
to caution. The more tragic the situation, the more it necessitates action and the refusal to "give
up" (The Prince, Chapters XXV and XXVI).
This is a teaching that is clearly required today. The determination of citizens attached to the
radical of democratic values is an invaluable resource which has not yet revealed, at least in Belgium,
its driving potential and power to change what is presented as inevitable. Through social networking
and the power of the written word, everyone can now become involved, particularly when it comes to
public services, universities, the student world, the judiciary and the Bar, in bringing the common
good and social justice into the heart of public debate and the administration of the state and the
community.
Neoliberalism is a species of fascism. It must be fought and humanism fully restored.
Yes some percentage are probably racist. But majority of people who are voted again globalism in the USA in the recent election,
sending Hillary packing, are not.
The death of Heather Heyer allow media to paint alt-right as 'domestic terrorists.' Hysteria wipe out by the media, the political
establishment, and the technocracy in Silicon Valley moved into over-drive and rached the proportion of an entirely artificial moral
panic.
M edia attention to the non-event in Charlottesville lasted an astonishing three full days. It completely displaced coverage devoted
to instances of Islamic terror and eclipses Western coverage devoted to serious terrorist incidents in the Middle East. Charlottesville
has been packaged for mass consumption as even that proved that anti-globalization forces are illegitimate and need to be procecuted.
Media has been attempting to spin this incident as some kind of defining historical moment -- a litmus test for the tolerance of
contemporary society.
Notable quotes:
"... The anti-globalization movement is a loose coalition of many, very diverse groups that are fighting the government/corporate
alliance and their corporate globalization agenda. They have different end goals and different tactics, but all have the purpose to
stop the course of corporate globalization. The diverse nature of the anti-globalization movement has resulted in some unique strengths
and weaknesses of the movement. An understanding of the nature of these groups is necessary to try to understand the movement and to
understand what the movement is doing. ..."
Original title: The Protests of the Anti-Globalization Movement
A new social movement is gaining strength. This movement is commonly referred to as the anti-globalization movement, although
it might more correctly be referred to as the anti-corporate globalization movement. This movement gained notoriety at the WTO protests
in Seattle on November 30 th , 1999. On this day approximately 60,000 people took to the streets of Seattle and used peaceful
protest and civil disobedience to shut down the WTO negotiations. Since then similar protests have occurred across North America
and Europe. With each protest the movement gains support from the public and solidarity among its members. And with each protest
the police state oppression grows as well.
The anti-globalization movement is a loose coalition of many, very diverse groups that are fighting the government/corporate
alliance and their corporate globalization agenda. They have different end goals and different tactics, but all have the purpose
to stop the course of corporate globalization. The diverse nature of the anti-globalization movement has resulted in some unique
strengths and weaknesses of the movement. An understanding of the nature of these groups is necessary to try to understand the movement
and to understand what the movement is doing.
The groups that make up the anti-globalization movement can be split into six categories. There are the environmental and social
justice movements, the third world groups, the organized labour groups, the indigenous rights movement, the nationalist groups, and
the moral majority movement. These categories are not strict divisions. Some groups may have ideologies common to two different categories,
and individuals may be sympathetic to the ideologies of one category while actively working with a group from another. But these
simple divisions serve to help understand this diverse group.
The visible groups in the anti-globalization movement that get identified by the public as the trouble causing protestors are
the environmental and social justice groups. These groups can be grouped together as they have a common complaint about corporate
globalization -- it destroys the environment and social justice. Concerns that these groups are fighting against include species
and habitat loss, pollution, unsustainable resource use, loss of democracy, loss of human rights, gender and race inequality, and
restriction of sexuality. Individual groups may be more specific in their concerns and deal with only one aspect of the environment
or social justice or more general and include the entire gambit. But these groups would agree on all of the issues presented above,
they merely have different focuses.
These groups are predominantly white middle-class activists that have the resource base to mobilize against the system. A common
criticism of these groups is the lack of participation of people from other ethnic or socio-economic backgrounds in a movement that
claims to represent the people. However, this is a strong and well organized part of the anti-globalization movement that has had
some success in bringing about change. The environmental and social justice groups can be divided into two broad sub-categories based
on their proposed solution: there are the anarchist groups and the neo-liberal reform groups.
The anarchist segment is different from other activist segments because they are not striving for reform. The anarchists, more
than any other group, includes a very diverse number of autonomous groups but some generalizations can be made. These groups think
that the hierarchical consumerist driven system is the problem. The solution is not to get some political change, but rather to change
the entire framework that the system works in. This philosophy incorporates Thoreau and his anti-growth, small is beautiful ideas,
Gandhi's ideas of Swadeshi, and ecofeminist antipatriarchical and antihierarchical ideas.
... ... ...
The anarchist groups are fundamentally against hierarchy.
... ... ...
All of these anarchist groups are non-violent, but there is some disagreement in what that means. Some groups say that property
damage is not violence, while others say that violence is violence whether directed against people or property. Proponents of property
damage say that the only way to stop corporations is to hurt them financially and property damage hurts them financially. The most
well publicized of these groups are the militant anarchists of Eugene, but there are many such groups across North America and Europe.
These groups are usually referred to as the Black Bloc. The Black Bloc refers to a commonality in ideology, not a formal organization.
Any one group within the Black Bloc may consist of 10 to 20 individuals and there is no formal organization between groups (Warcry
(4) , on
Breaking the Spell ).
... ... ...
The anarchist subcategory of the environmental and social justice movement is visible and intriguing, but at least as powerful
are the neo-liberal reformist environmental and social justice movements. These groups want to reform of the capitalist system to
include protections for the environment and to ensure social justice. These groups are traditional, hierarchical, top-down organizations.
They are the publically known activist groups with the majority of the public finding, but not the strength behind the anti-globalization
protests.
Some neo-liberal reform groups can be very radical. They can propose radical political change (such as the cessation of all logging).
What differentiates neo-liberal reform groups is that they propose to achieve their goals through regulations imposed within the
existing system. They are in support of the neo-liberal economic agenda, they just want to be able to add in certain regulations
to protect those things that they value. It is important to note that these groups may not consider themselves to be in favor of
neo-liberalism. But they are in support of it in that they wish to use its existing framework and build on it to make it more palatable.
Also, many individuals within some of the more radical neo-liberal reform groups (i.e. Greenpeace, Sierra Club) may actually have
personal anarchist philosophies but are working within a neo-liberal reform organization.
Neo-liberal reform groups do use traditional political channels to try to effect traditional political change. They will attempt
to influence elections and they will use lobbying. Some neo-liberal reform groups will also support civil disobedience or diversity
of tactics (Loretta Gerlach
(9) , personal
communication). Those that do use them hope to cause political change through the same three mechanisms that the anarchist groups
were using to create cultural change.
Another broad category of anti-globalization movements are the third world groups. Groups of people who are directly and immediately
harmed by globalization organize against imperialism in other countries. They have much less strength on the international level.
They have dedicated people but not the resources to mobilize. Other groups (especially the neo-liberal reform groups mentioned above)
may sponsor individuals from these third world groups to come to Canada to speak. Both Berta Caceras of the Lenca people in Honduras
(sponsored by Rights Action) and Alberto Achito of the Embera Katio of Colombia (sponsored by the Inter Church Committee on Human
Rights) have came to the U of L this semester. Some first world activist groups send aid to these third world groups as well. And
some groups have worked to sponsor third world representatives to the protests at Seattle and Quebec City.
The third world groups are involved in a very different scale of protest against globalization. People in these groups are manufacturing
discontent at a considerable risk to their own life. These groups are striving for very immediate practical solutions to specific
problems (i.e. getting killed by US funded paramilitary forces). There has been some work to try to use these dedicated third world
groups to create lasting political change. There has been student activist education of FARC (Force of Armed Revolutionaries of Colombia)
in political theory (Oscar Guzman
(10) , personal
communication).
A third category of anti-globalization movements are the labour movements. The labour movement is a very strong movement with
a large vested interest in the process of globalization. These groups range from groups with Marxist end goals (conventional organized
unions) to anarcho-syndicate end goals (Industrial Workers of the World). The tactics employed by labour movements range from very
conventional to civil disobedience. The Steelworkers Union was a civil disobedience force in the November 30 th protests
in Seattle, and CUPE National is organizing for the Summit of the Americas protests in Quebec City.
Many of the groups within the environmental and social justice movements are attempting to forge alliances with groups within
the labour movement. This has been actively hindered by both government and corporate forces, especially in the labour industry.
Both government and corporate forces work hard to manufacture hatred towards environmentalists within the logging community and encourage
and aid vigilante behaviour amoung the loggers (Bryce Gilroy-Scott
(11) , personal
communication).
The indigenous rights movement is another category of activists groups within the anti-globalization movement. The goal of this
movement is indigenous sovereignty. The indigenous rights movement is also against the corporate/government alliance and shares many
common values with anarchist groups (such as community empowerment and social justice). Indigenous rights groups have yet to become
very active in the anti-globalization movement but they have made some notable contributions and interest in the movement is growing.
... ... ...
A very different category of anti-globalization groups are the nationalist groups. These are movements to protect the sovereignty
of nations that is eroded by international trade agreements. This is a strong movement that generally comes from the right end of
the political spectrum. It generally has very little in common with the internationalist focused movements of the other groups. Many
of the nationalist groups are strong supporters of democracy and do connect with the other anti-globalization movements in this respect.
The main unifying force between the nationalist groups and the previously mentioned groups is that they have the common goal of fighting
corporate power. The tactics of this group can include property damage in some of the more militant groups.
The moral majority is another category of anti-globalization groups that has even less in common with the above mentioned groups
than the nationalist groups. These are ultra-right wing groups that are generally Christian. These groups had a presence in Seattle
(Stu Crawford, personal experience). These groups may feel that the corporatization of the planet results in an erosion of their
strong family values. Generally the only commonality that they have with the other anti-globalization groups is that they have a
common enemy.
This wide diversity of groups reviewed above creates a very unique movement.
Rejection of globalization by alt-right is very important. that's why make them economic nationalists.
And that's why they are hated neocon and those forces of neoliberalism which are behind Neocon/Neolib
Cultural Revolution -- promotion of LGBT, uni-gender bathrooms, transsexuals, etc, identity wedge in
politics demonstrated by Hillary, etc. (modeled on Mao's cultural revolution, which also what launched
when Mao started to lose his grip on political power).
In my experience with the alt-right, I encountered a surprisingly common narrative: Alt-right supporters
did not, for the most part, come from overtly racist families. Alt-right media platforms have actually
been pushing this meme aggressively in recent months. Far from defending the ideas and institutions
they inherited, the alt-right!which is overwhelmingly a movement of white millennials!forcefully
condemns their parents' generation. They do so because they do not believe their parents are racist
enough
In an inverse of the left-wing protest movements of the 1960s, the youthful alt-right bitterly
lambast the "boomers" for their lack of explicit ethnocentrism, their rejection of patriarchy, and
their failure to maintain America's old demographic characteristics and racial hierarchy. In the
alt-right's vision, even older conservatives are useless "cucks" who focus on tax policies and forcefully
deny that they are driven by racial animus.
... ... ...
To complicate matters further, many people in the alt-right were radicalized while in college. Not
only that, but the efforts to inoculate the next generation of America's social and economic leaders
against racism were, in some cases, a catalyst for racist radicalization. Although academic seminars
that explain the reality of white privilege may reduce feelings of prejudice among most young whites
exposed to them, they have the opposite effect on other young whites. At this point we do not know
what percentage of white college students react in such a way, but the number is high enough to warrant
additional study.
A final problem with contemporary discussions about racism is that they often remain rooted in
outdated stereotypes. Our popular culture tends to define the racist as a toothless illiterate Klansman
in rural Appalachia, or a bitter, angry urban skinhead reacting to limited social prospects. Thus,
when a white nationalist movement arises that exhibits neither of these characteristics, people are
taken by surprise.
It boggles my mind that the left, who were so effective at dominating the culture wars basically
from the late 60s, cannot see the type of counter-culture they are creating. Your point about
alt-righters opposing their parents drives this home.
People have been left to drift in a sea of postmodernism without an anchor for far too long
now, and they are grasping onto whatever seems sturdy. The alt-right, for its many faults, provides
something compelling and firm to grab.
The left's big failure when all the dust settles will be seen as its inability to provide a
coherent view of human nature and a positive, constructive, unifying message. They are now the
side against everything – against reason, against tradition, against truth, against shared institutions
and heritage and nationalism It's no wonder people are looking to be for something these days.
People are sick of being atomized into smaller and smaller units, fostered by the left's new and
now permanent quest to find new victim groups.
I'm disappointed to read an article at The American Conservative that fails to address the reality
behind these numbers. Liberal identity politics creates an inherently adversarial arena, wherein
white people are depicted as the enemy. That young whites should respond by gravitating toward
identity politics themselves in not surprising, and it's a bit offensive to attribute this trend
to the eternal mysteries of inexplicable "racist" hate.
The young can see through the fake dynamic being depicted in the mainstream media, and unless
The American Conservative wants to completely lose relevance, a light should be shone on the elephant
in the room. For young white kids, The Culture Wars often present an existential threat, as Colin
Flaherty shows in Don't Make the Black Kids Angry–endorsed and heralded as a troubling and important
work by Thomas Sowell.
From the 16 Points of the Alt-Right:
5. The Alt Right is openly and avowedly nationalist. It supports all nationalisms and the right
of all nations to exist, homogeneous and unadulterated by foreign invasion and immigration.
6. The Alt Right is anti-globalist. It opposes all groups who work for globalist ideals or globalist
objectives.
It is important to remember that nations are people, not geography. The current American Union,
enforced by imperial conquest, is a Multi-National empire. It has been held together by force
and more recently by common, though not equal, material prosperity.
With the imposition of Globalism's exotic perversions and eroding economic prospects the American
Union is heading for the same fate as all Multi-National empires before it.
Mysteriously absent from the scholarly discussion seems to be the pioneer of sociology, Ludwig
Gumplowicz. Incredibly so, as the same factors that led to the destruction of the Austro-Hungarian
Empire abound in contemporary America.
I have two teenage sons – we live in Canada – and they tell that, no matter what they say, who
they hang out with, what music they listen to, no matter how many times they demonstrate they
are not racist, they are repeatedly called racist. They are automatically guilty because they
are white. They are beaten over the head with this message in school and in the press and are
sick and tired of it.
What might also be considered is the cultural effect upon a generation which has now matured through
what the government calls "perpetual war," with the concomitant constant celebration of "warriors,"
hyper-patriotism as demanded of all public events such as shown in the fanaticism of baseball
players engaged in "National Anthem standouts," such as were popular a couple years ago in MLB,
the constant references in political campaigns to the "enemy," to include Russia as well now,
and the "stab in the back" legend created to accuse anyone opposed to more war and occupation
of "treason." We've "radicalized" our own youth, with Trump coming along with his links to Israel's
ultra militarist, Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli "Right," and created a cultural condition
much like this:
http://mondoweiss.net/2015/04/conservative-revolutionaries-fascism/
Odd, you write "How did the youngest white Americans respond to the most racially polarizing election
in recent memory?" In reality it was less racially polarized than 2012, when 93 % of African Americans
and 71% of Hispanics voted for Obama while in 2016 88% of Blacks and 65% of Hispanics voted from
Hillary. So Trump won a higher percentage of African American votes and Hispanic votes than Mitt
Romney. In 2008 Obama won 95% of Blacks and 67% of Hispanics, in 2004 the numbers were 88 and
53 for Kerry so the three elections between 2004 and and 2016 were all more polarizing than the
2016 race.
Yes, you make many important points, Mr. Hawley, but that you feel the need to join the chorus
of those who see our president's reaction to Charlottesville as somehow inappropriate or even
itself racist–that is sad. I don't see what else you may be implying in your opening paragraphs,
since you move directly from the number of "likes" Obama's bromide received to this: "[Obama's
reaction] also offered a stark contrast to that of President Trump."
In spite of many liberals' frantic desire to read whatever they want into President Trump's
words, he very clearly condemned the neo-Nazis and the evil of Heather Heyer's murderer. That
he also condemned the violence coming from Antifa ranks does not lessen his condemnation
of that coming from the alt right side. Rather, condemning the rising illiberalism on both sides
of this growing conflict was both commendable and necessary.
Many Americans see these recent events in a context stretching back years. Myself, at fifty,
having watched especially the steady empowerment of a demagogic left on our campuses, I'm not
much surprised that a racist "white nationalist" movement should burst into flame at just this
point. The kindling is right there in the anti-white, misandrous virulence of our SJW left.
Sane conservatives have strongly condemned the new alt-right racism. The problem is that we
are not seeing anything similar from the left. Our left seems incapable of condemning, let alone
even seeing , its own racist excesses. Which are everywhere in its discourse, especially
in our humanities departments.
I would say that in the recent decades the American left has grown much more deeply invested
in identity politics than the right has ever been during my lifetime. In my view, our left has
grown more enamored of identity issues precisely because it has abandoned the bread and butter
issues that really matter to most Americans.
I have many left-liberal friends and regularly read the left press. Surveying the reactions
to Charlottesville and the rising conflict between alt-right extremists and a radicalized Antifa
left, I see nowhere a step toward acknowledging the obvious: our rabid identity politics is by
no means just a problem of the right.
Racial identity politics is a curse. Sadly, it seems we've been cursed by it well and and good.
The poison's reaching down to the bone. Unless both smart moderates and people on the left start
to recognize just how badly poisoned our left has been by this curse, no progress will be made.
Identity politics needs to be condemned on both sides of this growing national street brawl,
and it should start NOW.
But I'm afraid it's not going to happen. I see my friends on the left, and they're nowhere
near acknowledging the problem. And I'm sad to see our president's attempt to call out both sides
has gotten such negative reactions. I'm afraid this isn't going to end well.
Liberal identity politics creates an inherently adversarial arena, wherein white people are
depicted as the enemy. That young whites should respond by gravitating toward identity politics
themselves in not surprising
One of many good reasons for rejecting "identity" politics generally.
A white friend attended a Cal State graduate program for counseling a couple of years ago; he
left very bitter after all his classes told him that white men were the proximate cause of the
world's misery. Then a mutual Latina friend from church invited him to coffee and told him that
he was the white devil, the cause of her oppression. You can conclude how he felt.
The liberal universities' curricula has caused a storm of madness; they have unleashed their
own form of oppressive thought on a significant portion on American society:white men. There is
now an adverse reaction. Of course, even more opprobrium will be heaped upon on men who might
question the illogicality of feminism and the left. How can all of this end well if the humanity
of white men is denied in universities, public schools and universities?
The Alt Right simply believes that Western nations have a right to preserve their culture and
heritage. Every normal man in these United States agreed with that premise prior to the Marxist
takeover of our institutions in the 1960's. And you know it's true.
Maybe at the bottom of it is not racism as in they are the wrong colour, but about cultural traits
and patterns of behaviour that are stirring resentment. Plus maybe the inclusion towards more
social benefits not available before (Obamacare?).
The current rap music, as opposed to the initial one, that emphasized social injustice is such
that one feels emptying his own stomach like sharks do.
The macho culture that black gangs, latin american gangs manifest is a bit antagonistic to
white supremacists gangs and attitudes towards women. After all, vikings going raiding used to
have shield maidens joining, and Celtic culture is full of women warriors. Northern European culture,
harking back to pre-Christian times was more kinder to women than what women from southern Europe
(Greece, Rome) experienced (total ownership by husbands, the veil, etc., all imported from the
Middle East: but one must not judge too harshly, the book "Debt, the first 5000 years" could be
an eye opener of the root causes of such attitudes).
Also, the lack of respect for human life expressed in these cultures is not that palatable,
even for white supremacists (while one can point to Nazi Germany as an outlier – but there it
was the state that promoted such attitudes, while in Japan the foreigner that is persecuted and
ostracized could be the refugee from another village around Fukushima – see the Economist on that).
So I think there are many avenues to explore in identifying the rise in Alt right and white
supremacists in the U.S. But colour is definitely not it.
Come now. There were the same types around me years ago at school, work, society. They just did
not march around like Nazis in public, probably because the Greatest Generation would have kicked
their butts.
Now, with the miracle of modern technology, a few hundred of them can get together and raise
hell in one place. Plus they now get lots of encouraging internet press (and some discouraging).
This article says virtually nothing.
The author fails to define his terms, beginning with Alt-Right.
And he seems to operate from a dislike of Trump underneath it all. This dislike is common among
pundits, left and right, who consider themselves to be refined and cultured. So it was that the
NYT's early condemnation of Trump led with complaints about his bearing and manners – "vulgar"
was the word often used if memory serves.
This gets us nowhere. Many in the US are disturbed by the decline in their prospects with a decrease
in share of wages in the national income ongoing since the 1970's – before Reagan who is blamed
for it all. Add to that the 16 years of wars which have taken the lives of Trump supporters disproportionately
and you have a real basis for grievances.
Racism seems to be a side show as does AntiFa.
"The accusation of being racist because you are white is a misunderstanding of structural racism."
I agree, but I notice that Jews have the same misunderstanding when you mention structural
"Zionist Occupied Government" or "Jewish Privilege".
Perhaps because they are both conspiracy theories rooted in hatred and ignorance, which is
where we descend when the concept of a statistical distribution or empirical data become "controversial",
or "feelings" overtake "facts".
And progressives still refer to KKK when they seek an example of a white supremacist group. Amazing.
They are too lazy even to learn that the Klan lost its relevance long ago, and the most powerful
white supremacist organization of today consists of entirely different people, who are very far
from being illiterate.
***
Todd Pierce,
Israel's ultra militarist, Benjamin Netanyahu
I won't deny that Bibi is a controversial figure, but calling him an ultra militarist is quite
a bit of a stretch.
Elite sports. After reading this article and it's underlying thesis, it occurs to me that the
way sports have evolved in this country is very likely to be the experience that millennial whites
have had that fosters their "out group" belief systems. It is very common, using soccer as my
frame of reference, for wealthy suburban families to spend a fortune getting their children all
the best training and access to all the best clubs. Their children are usually the best players
in their community of origin and usually the top players all the way through the preadolescent
years only to find all of that money and prestige gone to waste once their kids get to around
sixteen at which point their children are invariably replaced on the roster by a recent immigrant -- mainly from Africa or south of our border and usually at a cut rate compared to the one they
are bleeding the suburban families with. I'm assuming this is becoming more common across all
sports as they move toward a pay to play corporate model. In soccer, the white kids are, seriously,
the paying customers who fill out the roster that supports the truly talented kids (from countries
who know how to develop soccer talent.)
The thing is when blacks begin to feel power and a secure place in America then their true colors
show-at least among many. Left unchecked they would become the biggest racists of all. You can
see that now. So what it comes down to are white people going to give away their country? Until
blacks become cooperative and productive things need to stay as they are. Sad maybe but that's
just the way it has to be.
There have always been fringe, rightwing groups in the US. Nothing new there. But the so-called
alt-right, comprised of Nazi wannabes and assorted peckerwoods, is truly the spawn of the looney
left, whose obsession with race has created the toxic environment we find ourselves in.
"After years without result, with days to the deadline, Canada's negotiator, Simon
Reisman, who Chrystia Freeland recalls in the fond tones Hillary Clinton uses for Henry
Kissinger, walked. Why? Because the U.S. wouldn't agree to a "mechanism" that superceded U.S.
law. Ottawa was grim. Without a deal, we'd perish. The U.S. negotiator said: Canada needs a
"face-saving gesture." President Reagan told his team to get creative.
They did. They didn't replace the U.S.'s unilateral right to impose costs on Canadian
stuff with a neutral process to decide what's fair. They created a process to decide only
whether the U.S. was accurately enforcing its own rules. That left everything as it was but
called it dispute resolution."
"... Reminds me of the 60's and the SDS and their ilk. A large part of the under 30 crowd idolized Mao's Little Red Book and convinced themselves the "revolution" was imminent. So many times I heard the phrase "Up Against the Wall, MFs." Stupid fools. Back then people found each other by "teach-ins" and the so called "underground press." In those days it took a larger fraction to be able to blow in each other's ear and convince themselves they were the future "vanguard." ..."
-"Trump isnt our last chance. Its your last chance."
Reminds me of the 60's and the SDS and their ilk. A large part of the under 30 crowd
idolized Mao's Little Red Book and convinced themselves the "revolution" was imminent. So
many times I heard the phrase "Up Against the Wall, MFs." Stupid fools. Back then people
found each other by "teach-ins" and the so called "underground press." In those days it took
a larger fraction to be able to blow in each other's ear and convince themselves they were
the future "vanguard."
These days, with the internet, it is far easier for a smaller fraction to gravitate to an
echo chamber, reinforce group think, and believe their numbers are much larger than what, in
reality, exists. This happens across the board. It's a rabbit hole Tyler. Don't go down
it.
"... In that sense, the neoconservative movement as a political and intellectual movement represents a fifth column in the United States in that it subtly and deceptively seeks to undermine what the Founding Fathers have stood for and replace it with what the Founding Fathers would have considered horrible foreign policies!policies which have contributed to the demise of the respect America once had. ..."
"... For example, when two top AIPAC officials!Steven Rosen and Keith Weissman!were caught passing classified documents from the Pentagon to Israel, Gabriel Schoenfeld defended them. ..."
Editors
Note: Mr. Alexis has sent us a well written position with which VT totally agrees
Former neoconservative luminary Francis Fukuyama of Stanford (formerly of Johns Hopkins)
compares the neoconservative movement to Leninism. Neoconservatism, according to Fukuyama, is
the reincarnation to some extent of both Leninism and Bolshevism.
Fukuyama's observation makes sense when even Irving Kristol, who founded the movement,
proudly admitted that the "honor I most prized was the fact that I was a member in good
standing of the [Trotskyist] Young People's Socialist League (Fourth International)."
And this neoconservative movement, as Jewish writer Sidney Blumenthal has shown, found its
political and intellectual ideology "in the disputatious heritage of the Talmud."
Even after the birth of the neoconservative movement, many of its members such as Stephen
Schwartz of the
Weekly Standard
and Joan Wohlstetter of the RAND Corporation still had
a burning thirst for Lev Davidovich Bronstein, known as Leon Trotsky.
In that sense, the neoconservative persuasion is a subversive movement which started out in
the 1920s and 30s. Legal scholar Michael Lind pointed out some years ago that,
"Most neoconservative defense intellectuals have their roots on the left, not the right.
They are products of the influential Jewish-American sector of the Trotskyist movement of the
1930s and 1940s, which morphed into anti-communist liberalism between the 1950s and 1970s and
finally into a kind of militaristic and imperial right with no precedents in American culture
or political history."
This was the case for Kristol, who bragged about how his Jewish intellectual comrades such
as Nathan Glazer of Harvard, Philip Selznick of Berkley, Peter Rossi of Johns Hopkins, Merroe
Berger of Princeton, I. Milton Sacks of Brandeis, and Seymour Melman of Columbia were not only
Trotskyists but were "unquestionably the most feverishly articulate" in indoctrinating students
into their
Weltanschauung.
Irving Kristol
Kristol argues in his book
The Neoconservative Persuasion
that those Jewish
intellectuals did not forsake their heritage (revolutionary ideology) when they gave up
Communism and other revolutionary movements, but had to make some changes in their thinking.
America is filled with such former Trotskyists who unleashed an unprecedented foreign policy
that led to the collapse of the American economy.
We have to keep in mind that America and much of the Western world were scared to death of
Bolshevism and Trotskyism in the 1920s and early 30s because of its subversive activity.
Winston Churchill himself wrote an article in 1920 in the British newspaper
Illustrated
Sunday Herald
entitled "Zionism versus Bolshevism: A Struggle for the Soul of the Jewish
People."
The United States had document after document in archives (particularly at the Yale Law
School) on Bolshevik Revolution. One of those documents is entitled "Papers Relating to the
Foreign Relations of the United States 1918 Russia Vol. I – The Bolshevik 'Coup d'Etat'
November 7, 1917." Virtually no one wanted to tolerate Bolshevism.
Noted Australian economist John Quiggin declares in his recent work
Zombie
Economics
that "Ideas are long lived, often outliving their originators and taking new and
different forms. Some ideas live on because they are useful. Others die and are forgotten. But
even when they have proved themselves wrong and dangerous, ideas are very hard to kill. Even
after the evidence seems to have killed them, they keep on coming back.
These ideas are neither alive nor dead; rather they are undead, or zombie, ideas."
Bolshevism or Trotskyism is one of those zombie ideas that keeps coming back in different
forms. It has ideologically reincarnated in the political disputations of the neoconservative
movement.
If this sounds like an exaggeration and if you think the projectile motion of Trotskyism is
over, listen to Gabriel Schoenfeld, senior advisor to the Mitt Romney for President campaign,
as to why he supported Romney for president:
"My support for Mitt Romney has something to do with a ship called the
Serpa
Pinto
and with an American Marxist revolutionary."
Schoenfeld later declared that his father was a Trotskyist in the revolutionary sense, and
that Obama was too soft on the Middle East, and Romney was the better choice to take care of
Iran. Schoenfeld was an editor for the neoconservative magazine
Commentary.
As it turns out, neoconservative think tanks such as the
American Enterprise Institute
are largely extensions of Trotskyism with respect to foreign policy. Other think tanks such as
the Bradley Foundation were overtaken by the neoconservative machine back in 1984.
Some of those double agents have been known to have worked with Likud-supporting Jewish
groups such as the
Jewish Institute
for National Security Affairs,
an organization which has been known to have "co-opted"
several "non-Jewish defense experts by sending them on trips to Israel. It flew out the retired
general Jay Garner, now slated by Bush to be proconsul of occupied Iraq."
Philo-Semitic scholars Stephen Halper of Cambridge University and Jonathan Clarke of the
CATO Institute agree that the neoconservative agendas "have taken American international
relations on an unfortunate detour," which is another way of saying that this revolutionary
movement is not what the Founding Fathers signed up for, who all maintained that the United
States would serve the American people best by not entangling herself in alliances with foreign
entities.
As soon as the Israel Lobby came along, as soon as the neoconservative movement began to
shape U.S. foreign policy, as soon as Israel began to dictate to the U.S. what ought to be done
in the Middle East, America was universally hated by the Muslim world.
Moreover, former secretary of defense Robert Gates made it clear to the United States that
the Israelis do not and should not have a monopoly on the American interests in the Middle
East. For that, he was chastised by neoconservative Elliott Abrams.
In that sense, the neoconservative movement as a political and intellectual movement
represents a fifth column in the United States in that it subtly and deceptively seeks to
undermine what the Founding Fathers have stood for and replace it with what the Founding
Fathers would have considered horrible foreign policies!policies which have contributed to the
demise of the respect America once had.
Halper and Clarke move on to say that the neoconservative movement is "in complete contrast
to the general cast of the American temperament as embodied by the Declaration of
Independence."
The neoconservative persuasion is horrible in the sense that much of the war in the Middle
East has been based on colossal hoaxes and fabrications.
This point became more interesting when it was discovered that Israel has maintained
covert operations against the U.S. on multiple levels, including smuggling illegal weapons
for years, while the neoconservative machine says nothing about this issue and keeps
propounding that Israel is a model of Western values in the Middle East.
Israel has been spying on the United States for years using various Israeli or Jewish
individuals, including key Jewish neoconservative figures such as Paul Wolfowitz and Douglas
Feith, who were under investigation for passing classified documents to Israel.
The FBI has numerous documents tracing Israel's espionage in the U.S., but no one has come
forward and declared it explicitly in the media because most political pundits value mammon
over truth.
For example, when two top AIPAC officials!Steven Rosen and Keith Weissman!were caught
passing classified documents from the Pentagon to Israel, Gabriel Schoenfeld defended
them.
In the annual FBI report called "Foreign Economic Collection and Industrial Espionage,"
Israel is a major country that pops up quite often. This is widely known among CIA and FBI
agents and U.S. officials for years.
One former U.S. intelligence official declared, "There is a huge, aggressive, ongoing set
of Israeli activities directed against the United States. Anybody who worked in
counterintelligence in a professional capacity will tell you the Israelis are among the most
aggressive and active countries targeting the United States.
They undertake a wide range of technical operations and human operations. People here as
liaisons aggressively pursue classified intelligence from people. The denials are
laughable."
In 1991, the Israelis tried to recruit a former U.S. intelligence official, but he declined.
"I had an Israeli intelligence officer pitch me in Washington at the time of the first Gulf
War. I said, 'No, go away,' and reported it to counterintelligence." Covert operations were
done by the Israelis in "a 1997 case in which the National Security Agency bugged two Israeli
intelligence officials in Washington discussing efforts to obtain a sensitive U.S. diplomatic
document.
Israel denied wrongdoing in that case and all others, and no one has been prosecuted." Yet
this has rarely seen the light of day in the popular media. Pointing these facts out, according
to the reasoning of Omri Ceren of the fifth column magazine
Commentary
, is tantamount
to anti-Semitism.
In 2003, Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon made the declaration that the United States had
already conquered Iraq, and it was time that the U.S. marched against Iran, Syria, and
Libya.
Under Obama, Sharon's prediction became a reality in Libya, and now the U.S. is
destabilizing Syria by covertly supporting the Syrian rebels, while the war drum is being
beaten against Iran.
In the process, Iran has been blamed for a cyber attack in the Middle East with little
evidence. By the fall of 2012, the United States and Israel were even considering a "surgical
strike" against Iran.
At the same time, the "democracy" which the neocons dreamed of establishing in Iraq has
become "increasingly authoritarian and narrowly sectarian," according to twenty-eight-year CIA
veteran and Georgetown University professor Paul R. Pillar. In his inaugural speech for his
second term, President Obama suggested that the perpetual war has come to an end.
But by that time the U.S. was already marshalling some of our precious men in Mali, and
British Prime Minister David Cameron has recently declared that the war in Mali will more than
likely last for decades, which is another way of saying that perpetual wars are here to stay.
And the people who will be paying for this are the American taxpayers, decent people who are
trying to put food on the table and generational children who will be drown in massive debt and
student loans.
What, then, are some of the outcomes of the neoconservative movement? What are some of its
revolutionary or subversive offshoots? We will explore these questions in the upcoming
articles, but one of the indirect by-products of this movement is that no person, democrat or
republican, can be elected as president without being a Zionist or at least favoring Israel
over the Founding Fathers. This point became clear when Obama won the presidential election in
2012.
Months before election, both Romney and Obama were competing as to who was going to give the
biggest tribute to Israel. Romney went to Israel and declared that Iran was the biggest threat
in the world, and Obama sent Defense Secretary Leon Panetta to Israel right after Romney's
departure to tell Israel that his administration is in agreement with Israeli officials with
respect to Iran. Both Romney and Obama supported deploying troops to Syria if Assad, they said,
used chemical weapons.
For Alan Dershowitz of Harvard, it was the Jews in Florida who helped reelect Obama. This is
not without evidence, since it has been reported that at least 70 percent of Jewish voters
sided with Obama. Dershowitz continues to say that Jews like himself "must now realize that our
support for the president will be good for Israel over the next four years Jews vote for both
parties.
Nobody is ignoring us. Every rational candidate knows that they and their party must earn
our votes in every election." One would say that this absolutely means nothing, since Jews are
less than five percent of the population. But as we shall show in the next article, Jewish
billionaires were largely the main vehicles supporting both Democrats and so-called
Republicans.
Dershowitz then declared something that would have been a shock to the Founding Fathers:
"Most Americans, regardless of religion, are united in support of Israel's security, but
divided about social and economic issues. It is critically important that support for Israel's
security remains a bipartisan issue, and never becomes a wedge issue that divides voters along
party lines, as it has in some European countries."
In other words, even though the economy is a dismal failure, even though Americans are out
of work, even though people are being cheated out of their retirement plans, even though
student loans have been skyrocketed, Americans must support Israel (it has been at least $3
billion a year). Just like the Pharisees and rabbis who had to tell Pilate what to do in the
first century, Dershowitz declares, "I and others who support [Obama] will have his ear over
the next four years."
Almost two months before he won the presidential election, Obama invited Dershowitz to the
White House and told him, "I don't bluff." Obama also invited Edgar Bronfman, former president
of the World Jewish Congress, to the White House and told him, "My commitment to Israel's
security is bone deep." What would George Washington, Thomas Edison and others say? Let us hear
them.
George Washington: "The great rule of conduct for us, in regard to foreign nations, is in
extending our commercial relations, to have with them as little political connection as
possible. Europe has a set of primary interests, which to us have none, or a very remote
relation. Hence she must be engaged in frequent controversies the causes of which are
essentially foreign to our concerns.
Hence, therefore, it must be unwise in us to implicate ourselves, by artificial ties, in the
ordinary vicissitudes of her politics, or the ordinary combinations and collisions of her
friendships or enmities." Thomas Jefferson: "Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all
nations!entangling alliances with none," Grover Cleveland: "It is the policy of Monroe and of
Washington and Jefferson: Peace, commerce, and honest friendship with all nations; entangling
alliance with none."
Does any president have the courage to pronounce these statements today? The answer is a
resounding no. The only former presidential candidate who tried to implement that foreign
policy was Ron Paul, but he was castigated as "a vicious anti-Semite" for doing so.
In a nutshell, if you are a follower of the Founding Fathers when it comes to foreign
policy, you are a "vicious anti-Semite." Moreover, if the Founding Fathers were alive today,
they would be all anti-Semites! Over the past few weeks, more than 60 articles have been
written against Chuck Hagel by two neoconservative magazines alone,
Commentary
and the
Weekly Standard
(not to mention the
Washington Post
,
National
Review
, the
Wall Street Journal
, etc.).
This brings us to an essentially critical point that will be explored in more details later
in the series: the word anti-Semitism has carelessly been applied in the political landscape to
shut down rational arguments and important issues. It has become a weapon in the blessed hands
of those who seek to destabilize thoughtful discussion. You either support the neoconservative
ideology, or else
"... Writing in the Financial Times , former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that London's AIIB decision and its aftermath "may be remembered as the moment the United States lost its role as the underwriter of the global economic system." ..."
"... Summers was both right and wrong. The U.S. role as the hegemonic power in international politics and economics indeed is being challenged. But this did not start when Britain and the others decided to sign-up with the AIIB. America has been slowly, almost imperceptibly, losing its grip on global leadership for some time, and the Great Recession merely accelerated that process. China's successful launch of the AIIB and its OBOR offspring merely accentuates that process. ..."
"... While President Trump lacks any serious, coherent worldview, there are more than enough Republican members of the foreign policy establishment to ensure that he doesn't break with America's post-1945, bipartisan policy of primacy. And Trump's slogan "Make America Great Again'' certainly puts him in the camp of U.S. global dominance. ..."
"... But Paul Kennedy was correct when he noted in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers that in the history of the modern international system (since around 1500) no state has managed to remain permanently atop the great power pyramid. "American exceptionalism" notwithstanding, the United States will not be an exception. ..."
"... Pax Americana was the product of a unique post-World War II constellation of power. As scholars such as Kennedy and Gilpin have pointed out, when World War II ended the United States accounted for half of the world's manufacturing output and controlled some two-thirds of the world's gold and foreign exchange. Only America could project air and naval power globally. ..."
"... the United States kept the Soviet Union at bay until that artificial regime collapsed of its own weight. ..."
"... today China's AIIB presents a double-barreled challenge to U.S. leadership of the global economy as well as to Pax Americana's institutional (and ideational) foundations. The AIIB aims at enhancing China's role both in managing the international economy and in international development. With AIIB China means to demonstrate its seriousness in demanding a share of decision-making power in the Bretton Woods legacy institutions, the IMF and World Bank, reflecting its current economic and financial clout. The AIIB's impact, however, transcends international economic affairs and reflects the shifting Sino-American balance of power. ..."
"... because of the AIIB, America's "international credibility and influence are being threatened." ..."
"... For their part, the Chinese regarded the U.S. stance as an attempt to counter China's rise and its ambition to become the dominant power in East Asia. As China's former Vice Minister of Finance, Wei Jianguo, put it, "You could think of this as a basketball game in which the U.S. wants to set the duration of the game, size of the court, the height of the basket and everything else to suit itself. In fact, the U.S. just wants to exclude China from the game." ..."
"... China's rise within the post-1945 international order doesn't mean it has any interest in preserving Pax Americana's core. On the contrary, the evidence suggests China wants to reshape the international order to reflect its own interests, norms, and values. As Martin Jacques puts it: ..."
"... The main plan of American soft power is democracy within nation-states; China by way of contrast emphasizes democracy between nation-states!most notably in respect for sovereignty!and democracy in the world system. China's criticism of the Western-dominated international system and its governing institutions strikes a strong chord with the developing world at a time when these institutions are widely recognized to be unrepresentative and seriously flawed. ..."
"... Rules and institutions do not exist in a vacuum. Rather, they reflect the distribution of power in the international system. In global politics, the rules are made by those who rule. ..."
"... As E. H. Carr, the renowned English historian of international politics, once observed, a rules-based international order "cannot be understood independently of the political foundation on which it rests and the political interests which it serves." The post-World War II international order is an American order that, while preserving world stability for a long time, primarily privileged U.S. and Western interests. ..."
"... But Beijing, by all the evidence, does not see it that way. And OBOR and the AIIB prove the point. Instead of living within the geopolitical, economic, and institutional confines imposed by Pax Americana, an increasingly powerful China will seek to revise the international order so that it reflects its own political and economic interests. Thus are OBOR and the AIIB straws in the wind. And, as the great Bob Dylan said, you don't need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing. ..."
"... Paradoxically the acceleration in the decline began with the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Incredible hubris followed, and we are reaping the usual results. ..."
No state stays on top of the great power pyramid forever.
August 8, 2017 In mid-May, leaders of 29 nations, and representatives from some 80 others, descended
on Beijing to discuss China's ambitious "One Belt One Road" (OBOR) development initiative!also known
to some as the "New Silk Road." This plan is the follow-on to China's creation several years ago
of the Asia Infrastructure Development Bank (AIIB), a major new international financial institution
to foster economic development in "emerging market" nations.
OBOR, a signature policy of Chinese president Xi Jinping, calls for investing massive amounts
of money ($1 trillion, according to some reports) to promote trade and economic development by constructing
transportation links that will tie together East Asian manufacturing hubs with Southeast Asia, Central
Asia, Africa, and Southwest Asia. These new transportation routes also will connect China with the
participating nations and Europe. China's aim is twofold: to create new markets for the goods and
services it produces, and to extend its geopolitical influence. Some analysts see OBOR as a Chinese
version of the Marshall Plan, the important post-World War II American initiative that helped rebuild
Western Europe and laid the foundation for European economic unity that ultimately culminated in
the European Union.
With OBOR, China is following the example of Great Britain and the United States (as well as pre-World
War I European great powers such as Germany). In the 19th century, the expansion of the British empire,
including what scholars Ronald Robinson and John Gallagher describe as its "informal empire," was
driven by the perceived need to find outlets for the United Kingdom's "surplus" goods and capital!that
is, goods and capital that could not be profitably absorbed by the domestic economy. When the United
States burst onto the world stage as a great power in the late 19th century, acquiring Puerto Rico,
Hawaii, Guam, and the Philippines, it imitated Britain's pursuit of both informal and formal empire
for the same reason: the belief that America's continuing economic growth depended on exporting American
capital and goods. China today faces the problem of insufficient demand for its products and limited
prospects for profitable domestic investment. Beijing is responding to these problems pretty much
as Britain and the United States did in the latter part of the 19th century: by seeking new markets
and attractive investment opportunities abroad.
As both Britain and the United States demonstrated, economic expansion begets geopolitical expansion.
Economic clout can buy a lot of political influence. But the lines of communication linking the home
country to its overseas markets must be protected. And political stability must be maintained where
the home country is investing. For Britain and the United States, economic expansion resulted in
the inexorable expansion of their military power and diplomatic sway. We can expect OBOR to have
a similar effect on China. It is a powerful incentive for China to expand its military projection
capabilities. Beijing will be compelled to assume an increasingly active role in managing regional
security in places affected by OBOR!especially in Central Asia and Pakistan, which are plagued by
political instability and terrorism.
OBOR is a milestone on China's path to great power status and is one of several indicators of
receding American power!not just geopolitically, but also in matters involving the international
economy and international institutions. When discussing the Sino-American rivalry, attention is focused
on the military balance between the United States and China and to flashpoints between the two countries
that could spark a conflict!the South China Sea, the East China Sea, Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula.
But these more intangible economic and diplomatic developments will be no less important in shaping
relations between Washington and Beijing as in determining the fate of the world order built by the
United States following World War II!that is, Pax Americana, or what is sometimes referred to as
"the liberal rules-based international order."
Since the early 2000s there has been an ongoing conversation among scholars, policymakers, and
members of the broader American foreign policy establishment about whether U.S. power is in decline.
The question actually extends back to the 1980s, with the publication of Yale historian Paul Kennedy's
The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers and other important books on the subject by scholars
David Calleo and Robert Gilpin. The controversy surrounding decline dissipated, however, when the
Soviet Union imploded and Japan's economic bubble burst. In one fell swoop, America's primary military
and economic competitors fell off the geopolitical chessboard.
The decline issue remained dormant through the "the unipolar moment" of the 1990s but was rekindled
with China's rapid great-power emergence in the early 2000s. China's rise is the flip side of American
decline. The central geopolitical question of the early 21st century is whether Pax Americana can
survive China's rise and the resulting shift of world geopolitical and economic power from west to
east. The U.S. foreign policy establishment is allergic to the word "decline." After all, as Jon
Huntsman declared during his brief presidential run in 2012: "Decline is un-American." Perhaps so,
but that doesn't mean that it's not happening.
Though Huntsman has plenty of company on this issue in the foreign policy establishment, we would
do better to heed the advice of the great Hall of Fame pitcher Satchel Paige. "Don't look back,"
he said, "because something may be gaining on you." A glance at the rear-view mirror shows China
rapidly closing the gaps with the United States in all the dimensions of power upon which the Pax
Americana was built: military, economic, and institutional.
In the last decade, China has displaced the United States as the world's leading manufacturing
power. In 2014, according to the World Bank, China passed America as the world's largest economy
(measured by purchasing power parity). In 1980, the United States accounted for about 25 percent
of gross world product. Today it accounts for around 18 percent. Some analysts have come up with
clever arguments to discount the importance of these economic trends. They are unconvincing. But
the reality of U.S. decline is more than just a matter of numbers; it is also evident in Washington's
diminishing ability to manage the international economy and in the growing challenges to many legacy
institutions of Pax Americana.
A strain of thinking called hegemonic stability theory holds that a liberal, open international
economy requires an overarching power to manage and stabilize the system by creating a political
and security order that permits economic openness. The United States filled this role for half a
century, from 1945 until the Great Recession. The world's economic hegemon must provide public goods
that benefit the international system as a whole, including: making the rules for the international
economic order; opening its domestic market to other states' exports; supplying liquidity to the
global economy; and providing a reserve currency. Having declined to grasp the mantle of leadership
during the 1930s, Washington seized it decisively after World War II. Johns Hopkins professor Michael
Mandelbaum has argued that, following the Cold War, the United States essentially acted as a de facto
government for the international system by providing security and managing the global economy.
The Great Recession impaired the United States' ability to provide leadership for the international
economy. After all, an economic hegemon is supposed to solve global economic crises, not cause them.
But America plunged the world into economic crisis when its financial system seized up with the sub-prime
mortgage crisis. A hegemon is supposed to be the lender of last resort in the international economy,
but the United States became the borrower of first resort!the world's largest debtor. When the global
economy falters, the economic hegemon must assume responsibility for kick-starting recovery by purchasing
other nations' goods. From 1945 to the Great Recession, America's willingness to consume foreign
goods constituted the primary firewall against global economic downturns. During the Great Recession,
however, the U.S. economy proved too infirm to lead the global economy back to health.
At the April 2009 G20 meeting in London, President Barack Obama conceded that, in key respects,
the United States' days as economic hegemon were numbered because America is too deeply in debt to
continue as the world's consumer of last resort. Instead, he said, the world would have to look to
China (and other emerging market states plus Germany) to be the motors of global recovery.
Another example of how the U.S. has lost its grip on global economic leadership is its failure
to prevail over the Europeans (read: Germany) in the transatlantic "austerity versus stimulus" debate
that commenced in late 2009. Reflecting their different historical experiences, the United States
and Europe (more specifically, Germany and the European Central Bank, or ECB) adopted divergent fiscal
policies during the Great Recession. Obama administration economic policymakers were guided by the
Keynesian lessons learned from the 1930s Great Depression: to dig out of a deep economic slump, the
federal government should boost demand by pump-priming the economy through deficit spending, and
the Federal Reserve should add further stimulus through low interest rates and easy money. Obama
administration policymakers and leading American economists were haunted by the "1937 analogy"!FDR's
"recession within the Depression''!demonstrating that if stimulus is withdrawn prematurely, a nascent
recovery may be aborted.
On the other hand, Germany!the EU's economic engine!has long been haunted by the "1923 analogy":
the fear that inflation can become uncontrollable, with disastrous economic, social, and political
consequences. From the founding of post-World War II West Germany until the advent of the European
Monetary Union and eventually the Euro, Germany's central Bundesbank maintained a primary mission
of combatting inflation and preserving the Deutschmark's value. For the German government, assurance
that the new ECB would follow the Bundesbank's sound money policy was a sine qua non for Berlin's
decision to give up the Deutschmark in favor of the Euro.
This U.S.-European divide on austerity versus stimulus was apparent as early as the April 2009
London G20 summit, where the United States wanted to rebalance the international economy by inducing
the Europeans (most particularly, Germany, which, with China, was one of the two large surplus economies)
to lift the Continent out of the Great Recession by emulating Washington's use of deficit spending
to galvanize economic revival. Washington wanted Germany to export less and import more. Berlin flatly
refused. German Chancellor Angela Merkel argued that for states!especially ones already deeply in
debt!to accumulate more debt in an effort to spend themselves out of the Great Recession would only
set the stage for an even greater crisis down the road.
Washington's inability to prevail over Berlin in the stimulus vs. austerity debate highlighted
waning U.S. power in the international economy. Jack Lew, then Treasury secretary, implicitly said
as much at the October 2015 IMF-World Bank annual meeting when he stated that the United States could
not be the "sole engine" of global growth.
But America's inability to get Germany to give up austerity was not the only indicator of America's
decreasing ability to shape the international economic agenda. During the Obama administration's
first term, the United States was unable to persuade China to allow the renminbi to appreciate to
Washington's preferred level (which the United States hoped would reduce China's export surplus to
the United States while simultaneously boosting American exports to China).
U.S. economic and fiscal troubles have contributed significantly to the fraying of Pax Americana's
institutional global framework. The Great Recession spurred calls for a major overhaul of the international
institutional order as evidenced by the emergence of the G20, demands for IMF and World Bank reform,
and a push for expanded membership of the UN Security Council. The past decade or so also has seen
the creation of new international organizations and groupings such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization,
the Collective Security Treaty Organization, and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa).
As American power wanes, a parallel or "shadow" international order is being constructed as an alternative
to Pax Americana. Perhaps the most dramatic example of his is Beijing's Asian Infrastructure Investment
Bank.
As Beijing rolled out its AIIB plans, the Obama administration kicked into high gear diplomatically
in an attempt to squelch it. As the New York Times reported, Washington "lobbied against the
[AIIB] with unexpected determination and engaged in a vigorous campaign to persuade important allies
to shun the project." Washington's attempt to dissuade its allies from joining the AIIB failed. The
dam burst when, in an Ides of March 2015 decision, Britain announced it was going to become a member
of the AIIB ("Et Tu Britain?"). London's decision to join the AIIB set off a stampede as other states
on the fence rushed to sign up for membership. Those joining included U.S. allies such as France,
Germany, Italy, Australia, South Korea, even Israel and Taiwan. Beijing's diplomatic coup in attracting
widespread support for its AIIB initiative from long-standing U.S. allies was viewed as a direct
challenge to America's global geopolitical and economic leadership.
Writing in the Financial Times , former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said that
London's AIIB decision and its aftermath "may be remembered as the moment the United States lost
its role as the underwriter of the global economic system."
Summers was both right and wrong. The U.S. role as the hegemonic power in international politics
and economics indeed is being challenged. But this did not start when Britain and the others decided
to sign-up with the AIIB. America has been slowly, almost imperceptibly, losing its grip on global
leadership for some time, and the Great Recession merely accelerated that process. China's successful
launch of the AIIB and its OBOR offspring merely accentuates that process.
Not surprisingly, U.S. policymakers and the wider foreign policy establishment brush off any possibility
of diminishing U.S. power. Recent books by leading foreign policy analysts (including Josef Joffe,
Robert Lieber, and Joseph S. Nye Jr.) assert that U.S. power is robust, and that the 21st century,
like the 20th, will be an "American century." Meanwhile, during the Obama administration U.S. foreign
policy officials never missed a chance to assert America's continuing role as a global hegemon (though
President Obama's own views on U.S. primacy seemed more nuanced). For example, the Obama administration's
2015 National Security Strategy, a twenty-nine page document, invoked the term "American leadership"
more than 100 times.
While President Trump lacks any serious, coherent worldview, there are more than enough Republican
members of the foreign policy establishment to ensure that he doesn't break with America's post-1945,
bipartisan policy of primacy. And Trump's slogan "Make America Great Again'' certainly puts him in
the camp of U.S. global dominance.
But Paul Kennedy was correct when he noted in The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers
that in the history of the modern international system (since around 1500) no state has managed to
remain permanently atop the great power pyramid. "American exceptionalism" notwithstanding, the United
States will not be an exception.
Pax Americana was the product of a unique post-World War II constellation of power. As scholars
such as Kennedy and Gilpin have pointed out, when World War II ended the United States accounted
for half of the world's manufacturing output and controlled some two-thirds of the world's gold and
foreign exchange. Only America could project air and naval power globally.
And, of course, the United States alone had atomic weapons. America used its commanding economic,
military, and political supremacy to lay the foundations of the post-World War II international order,
reflected in such institutions as the United Nations, NATO, the International Monetary Fund, the
World Bank, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (which has morphed into the World Trade
Organization). Additionally, the United States kept the Soviet Union at bay until that artificial
regime collapsed of its own weight.
All this represented a remarkable achievement, ensuring relative peace and prosperity for more
than half a century. But today China's AIIB presents a double-barreled challenge to U.S. leadership
of the global economy as well as to Pax Americana's institutional (and ideational) foundations. The
AIIB aims at enhancing China's role both in managing the international economy and in international
development. With AIIB China means to demonstrate its seriousness in demanding a share of decision-making
power in the Bretton Woods legacy institutions, the IMF and World Bank, reflecting its current economic
and financial clout. The AIIB's impact, however, transcends international economic affairs and reflects
the shifting Sino-American balance of power.
Washington said it opposed AIIB because of doubts that it would adhere to the same environmental,
governance, lending, transparency, labor, and human rights standards practiced by the IMF, World
Bank, and Asian Development Bank. But Treasury's Lew was more candid when he said that, because
of the AIIB, America's "international credibility and influence are being threatened."
For their part, the Chinese regarded the U.S. stance as an attempt to counter China's rise
and its ambition to become the dominant power in East Asia. As China's former Vice Minister of Finance,
Wei Jianguo, put it, "You could think of this as a basketball game in which the U.S. wants to set
the duration of the game, size of the court, the height of the basket and everything else to suit
itself. In fact, the U.S. just wants to exclude China from the game."
The Obama administration's ballyhooed Asian pivot was based on the assumption that, although the
ASEAN nations of Asia, along with Australia and South Korea, are being pulled into China's economic
orbit, they will turn to the United States as a geopolitical counterweight. However, Beijing's ability
to get ASEAN, South Korea, and other neighboring states to jump on the AIIB bandwagon suggests this
assumption may be erroneous. The pull of Beijing's economic power may override security concerns
and draw these states into China's geopolitical orbit. The trajectory of ASEAN's trade flows is revealing.
In 1993, the United States accounted for 18 percent of ASEAN's total trade (imports and exports combined),
and China for only 2 percent. By 2013 the United States' share of ASEAN's total trade had shrunk
to 8.2 percent while China's had jumped to 14 percent. The trend lines indicate that in coming years
China's share of regional trade will continue to rise while that of the U.S. will decline.
Thus while OBOR and the AIIB don't get the same attention from U.S. grand strategists as does
China's military buildup, they are equally important in signaling the ongoing power transition between
the United States and China in East Asia. Among American security studies scholars, even those who
once firmly believed that unipolarity would last far into the future now grudgingly concede that
the era of American hegemony may be drawing to a close. They console themselves, however, with the
thought that the United States can cushion itself against future power declines and the loss of hegemony
by taking advantage of what they see as a still-open window to "lock in" Pax Americana's essential
features!its institutions, rules, and norms!so that they outlive unipolarity. As Princeton's G. John
Ikenberry puts it, the United States should act today to put in place an institutional framework
"that will safeguard our interests in future decades when we will not be a unipolar power."
Ikenberry argues that China, having risen within the post-1945 international system, has no incentive
to overturn it. His argument is superficially attractive because it posits that, even if the material
foundations of U.S. dominance wither, its institutional and ideational essence will live on. This
almost certainly is incorrect. China's rise within the post-1945 international order doesn't
mean it has any interest in preserving Pax Americana's core. On the contrary, the evidence suggests
China wants to reshape the international order to reflect its own interests, norms, and values. As
Martin Jacques puts it:
The main plan of American soft power is democracy within nation-states; China by way of
contrast emphasizes democracy between nation-states!most notably in respect for sovereignty!and
democracy in the world system. China's criticism of the Western-dominated international system
and its governing institutions strikes a strong chord with the developing world at a time when
these institutions are widely recognized to be unrepresentative and seriously flawed.
Thus the "lock-in" concept isn't likely to work because China, along with much of the developing
world, does not accept the foundations upon which the post-World War II liberal international order
rests.
For many American scholars and policy makers the notion of a "liberal, rules-based, international
order" has a talismanic quality. They believe that rules and institutions are politically neutral
and thus ipso facto beneficial for all. Many proponents of "lock-in" have constructed a geopolitically
antiseptic world, one uncontaminated by clashing national interests. In this world, great power competition
and conflict are transcended by rules, norms, and international institutions. The problem is that
this misconstrues how the world works. Great power politics is about power. Rules and institutions
do not exist in a vacuum. Rather, they reflect the distribution of power in the international system.
In global politics, the rules are made by those who rule.
As E. H. Carr, the renowned English historian of international politics, once observed, a
rules-based international order "cannot be understood independently of the political foundation on
which it rests and the political interests which it serves." The post-World War II international
order is an American order that, while preserving world stability for a long time, primarily privileged
U.S. and Western interests.
Proponents of "lock-in" are saying that China will!indeed, must!agree to be a "responsible stakeholder"
(with Washington defining the meaning of "responsibility") in an international order that it did
not construct and that exists primarily to advance the interests of the United States. In plain English,
what those who believe in "lock-in" expect is that an increasingly powerful China will continue to
accept playing second fiddle to the United States.
But Beijing, by all the evidence, does not see it that way. And OBOR and the AIIB prove the
point. Instead of living within the geopolitical, economic, and institutional confines imposed by
Pax Americana, an increasingly powerful China will seek to revise the international order so that
it reflects its own political and economic interests. Thus are OBOR and the AIIB straws in the wind.
And, as the great Bob Dylan said, you don't need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is
blowing.
Christopher Layne is University Distinguished Professor of International Affairs, and Robert
M. Gates Chair in National Security, at Texas A&M University.
Thank you for a very interesting article. Still, I think there is a large issue not addressed:
Isn't China on the verge of a now unstoppable demographic catastrophe? How do you see that affecting
China's "rise" long term?
Professor Layne: You left out something very significantly causal re: decline of American power.
It is not mysterious or a deeply historic twist of inevitable fate.
Rather, we have spent TRILLIONS in vain military blood and treasure over the past 17 years,
with NOTHING to show for it – besides a destabilized region raining the most refugees since WW2
onto our allies, the Europeans (destabilizing THEM as well.)
This failure is not even being addressed, let alone changed. Policymakers responsible apparently
have clearance to continue this uselessness indefinitely.
A Chinese sage named Sun Tzu said it best, some 2500 years ago, in The Art of War:
" When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will
grow dull and their ardor will be damped. If you lay siege to a town, you will exhaust your strength.
3. Again, if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the
strain.
4. Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor damped, your strength exhausted and your treasure
spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however
wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue.
5. Thus, though we have heard of stupid haste in war, cleverness has never been seen associated
with long delays.
6. There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare. "
No mystery here. America is proving not to be Exceptional enough to survive elite mismanagement.
No. The rest of the world is merely catching up. The wealth that the US enjoyed relative to the
rest of the world in the decades following WWII was unprecedented, and is probably not a repeatable
phenomenon. If we are declining, it is only because we fail to appreciate the multi-latereral
nature of our world, and stick our nose where it doesn't belong.
We're in decline not because of China but because of the decisions we make (or fail to make).
We devote too many resources towards wars and asset appreciation (financial bubbles) and not enough
into investing in ourselves (education and infrastructure). In the short run, the strong military
made us look strong to the world snd ourselves but we never examined whether that was the most
judicious use of our resources for the long run.
This is not anything new. Eisenhower spoke of this 50 some odd years ago.
If we are in decline and there are signs that is the case. It is by our doing. Over expanded strategic
goals and dismantling the very social structure(s) that maintains, sustains and protects longevity.
The abandonment of national identity by our leadership class. They claim in the national interests,
but upon examining their policy agendas, immigration, bailout, lobbying rules, domestic agendas
and management, there's plenty to be concerned about.
" For Britain and the United States, economic expansion resulted in the inexorable expansion of
their military power and diplomatic sway. We can expect OBOR to have a similar effect on China.
It is a powerful incentive for China to expand its military projection capabilities."
The trick here is managing the relational dynamics so that whatever mechanisms one uses in
maintaining that power don't backlash to the point of disruptive violence or using sufficient
force that such backlash doesn't occur.
The British/European model model of colonial rule was unsustainable. It might be wise to examine
Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, maybe Germany but comparing these socialist smaller states would
be a tricky comparison.
The idea that the US would maintain its world standing has been laughable for decades. A nation
cannot excel when you have a population as narcissistic and willfully ignorant like we have now.
The economic downfall is only a symptom of the ever deepening moral failures we find ourselves
fighting over and even clinging to. I am no fan of socialism or communism, but what we have created
here in America is an out of control monster set to destroy all in its path.
"The Obama administration's ballyhooed Asian pivot was based on the assumption that, although
the ASEAN nations of Asia, along with Australia and South Korea, are being pulled into China's
economic orbit, they will turn to the United States as a geopolitical counterweight. However,
Beijing's ability to get ASEAN, South Korea, and other neighboring states to jump on the AIIB
bandwagon suggests this assumption may be erroneous. The pull of Beijing's economic power may
override security concerns and draw these states into China's geopolitical orbit."
It is in this context -- South Korea, Japan, and other south Asian nations being drawn inexorably
into China's geopolitical orbit, thus overturning US post-WW2 hegemony in the region – that current,
much-exaggerated US concerns about North Korean nuclear weapons can best be understood.
The US is using North Korea's nuclear development – undertaken by North Korea as a defensive
measure against regime change by the US – as one of a series of pretexts aimed at preserving its
ever-diminishing post-WW2 hegemony in Asia.
At some point the US will begin to withdraw the 30,000 US troops stationed in South Korea and
the 30,000 US troops stationed in Japan – and will stop conducting military exercises and shows
of force near the Chinese border – and will sit down with China, North Korea, South Korea, and
Japan and begin the long process of negotiating the gradual, peaceful US acceptance of the new
geopolitical reality in east Asia.
The lesson I took from reading Paul Kennedy was, decline is a choice.
China, India and the Middle East could have competed with early modern Europe if centralized
multi-ethnic empires (Manchu, Mughal and Ottoman Empires) hadn't stifled the energy of those civilizations.
The Spanish could have stayed on top if, beginning in 1559, Philip II, III, and IV hadn't stubbornly
clung to ethnically dissimilar European territories such as the Netherlands, and if they hadn't
wasted their nation's strength in the wars of the Counter Reformation.
Beginning with the 1670 Treaty of Dover, the French under Louis XIV and XV fell into the same
trap, wasting their strength in the service of the Counter Reformation and territorial ambitions
in the Netherlands.
The British could have stayed on top if they hadn't alienated the Americans, wasted their strength
on tropical imperialism and balance of power wars, and then surrendered their industrial lead
to Germany and America via the dogmatic embrace of free trade.
Germany might have replaced Britain as the new leading power if they had maintained the peace
with a simply foreign policy based on a strong alliance with Russia, instead of the Byzantine
complexity of Bismark's diplomacy followed by the belligerent buffoonery of Kaiser Wilhelm.
Prior to the Cold War, Americans did everything right. We grew from a tiny settlement in 1607
to a colossas possessing half (!) the world's GDP in 1947. We maintained the homogeneity, without
stifling the energy, of our people. Most of our wars were fought to obtain sparsely populated
temperate zone land for the colonization of our people – not for tropical imperialism, balance
of power, or international ideological crusades. Pragmatism, not ideology, guided our economic
policy. During the Cold War, we began sacrificing the interests of the American nation to the
newfangled ideology of "Americanism". Tentatively under Truman, and definitively beginning with
Kennedy, we undermined the homogeneity of our people with mass immigration from the whole world,
undermined our traditional morality with liberal social engineering, became the policeman of the
world intent on exporting "Americanism", and assumed an attitude of lofty contempt for our own
trade interests.
The Chinese, on the other hand, chose ascent when they purged The Gang of Four and substituted
Chinese ethno-nationalism for feverish Maoism as their guiding principle.
It is obvious that we are now in the decline phase of the life cycle of empires. See the British
general Sir John Bagot Glubb's book "The Course of Empire" and other writings.
Blue chip stocks yield to blue chopsticks! Human civilisation is a forward-moving perpetual motion
machine. It never stops and it never goes back. There is no "end of history". There is no point
at which human civilisation just stops dead in its tracks and never moves again until the sun
implodes in 10 million years and roasts us all. The world has always had its revisionists and
reactionaries who want to take their countries back to some real or imagined golden age. If we're
lucky, such people eventually disappear into Trotsky's famous "dustbin of history". If we're not
lucky, they start a war, lose it and then disappear into said dustbin, destroying their country
in the process and opening up the way for a new dominant power to emerge. Just as Britain dominated
the world by 1850 and the US by 1950, China will dominate the world by 2050. I don't really see
what disadvantage there is in that for Americans and for us in Europe, it looks very positive.
Machiavelli said that as between two tyrants, always choose the most distant. China is Europe's
distant tyrant. OBOR seems to be very much to Europe's advantage, displacing American hegemony
and undermining US hegemonists' attempts to use Putin's Russia as an instrument to keep Europe
under their control.
Being a confirmed Realist and having researched Realism what is going on today between ourselves,
the Chinese Reds, and Russia is quite understandably. Few share our Democracy model, it is too
messy.
Let's not be obtuse. This order was put in place by individuals in the USA because it was to
their economic benefit to do so. That in no way means that this order benefits all Americans or
even a majority. And to the tens of thousands of American soldiers who have died maintaining this
order it was to their great detriment.
I personally have no allegiance to "the liberal rules-based international order". If the Chinese
can do better, let them have at it.
The important question is not whether America is in decline. It is whether the American people's
living standards are in decline.
Empire is not cost effective or beneficial to the general welfare of a country. It only serves
to enrich a few, while creating domestic corruption and inequality.
The post-WW2 American empire, allegedly to contain Communism, really didn't benefit America.
And the costs have been enormous.
It did benefit bankers, defense contractors, scoundrels, and the Wall Street Washington cabal
centered on the CFR.
We wasted the post Cold War era believing there was an "End to History". Anyone with decent
understanding would have considered that trying for a unipolar moment was a huge mistake and a
world with various Great Powers was a more likely outcome.
Unipolar attempts don't work. Acknowledging the US as the greatest Great Power, among many,
is a much better idea than trying to keep the US as the sole Superpower. That isn't decline but
breaking through illusion.
The Soviet Union sustained 20 Million causalities in the Second World War while it moved its factories
east to keep them out of German hands. Contrast this with the US imperial elite who simply handed
over our industrial base to China. The result is that China's economy is growing a rate three
times that of the United States.
What goes up must come down
Spinnin' wheel got to go 'round
Talkin' 'bout your troubles it's a cryin' sin
Ride a painted pony let the spinnin' wheel spin
This thoughtful article is followed by thoughtful comments. One commenter already mentioned demographics.
Due to immigration, America is the only advanced country not facing a population implosion.
Another ace-in-the-whole is geography. We are protected by two oceans with weak friendly neighbors
on our land borders.We are blessed with rich resources. This includes rich agricultural land reachable
by navigable rivers and mineral wealth.
We have rich political and social institutions that hopefully can survive Trump.
While we are doing our best to squander these they give us a cushion.
The U.S. is in an inevitable decline. The only question is the extent of the economic sabotage
and outright wars that the Deep State will instigate to try to forestall the collapse.
Washington will not tolerate a second axis of power arising even if it is strictly economic.
Consider how American Elites used subversion to catalyze the coup in Ukraine. They will stop at
nothing to sustain U.S. hegemony in the larger global sphere.
Should China, Russia and Europe seek to integrate into a huge, contiguous Eurasian economic
marketplace independent of United States hegemonic interference, the Deep State will use all of
its military power to prevent it. (Especially ironic since death and destruction are becoming
America's primary exports.)
The current rumblings of American power projection in the South China Sea and Russian borders
are a set up for future conflicts. The United States regime deluded by arrogance and stupidity
and saturated by the cult of military exceptionalism can't say no to military coercion and war
as its primary foreign policy instrument.
With the Neocon/Neoliberal militarists now running the show, it's only going to get worse
We are in decline because the decisions we made during and after the cold war.
– we tried to buy goodwill ("allies") by using the "most favored nation" clause – outsourcing
manufacturing jobs, starting at the bottom of the sophistication scale (apparel, appliances ).
And all we have left is defense manufacturing jobs. We have no more jobs to give away to buy goodwill.
– while reducing taxes, we kept increasing defense related spending by borrowing money.
With all the senseless wars, we have a huge debt, not exactly something which gives you clout.
– we wasted brainpower on financial gimmicks which have zero contribution to economic strength.
Such gimmicks might mess up the economy – and we did this, too – for the whole world.
China took the market driven part of communist economy which was viciously stamped out by Stalin
– the New Economic Policy (NEP) – and built an economic powerhouse, with money to spend.
The decline of the United States can be directly correlated to the decline in our spiritual fervor
and the absence of the fear of God. Falling morals precipitate the fall of the nation. It's not
a question of if at this point, but when. You can argue whatever other factors you wish, but there
is a direct correlation between strength of a nation and God throughout human civilization.
Lots to chew on as they say, but a couple key points from the article. A US President represents
how the world view's we Americans. From all the so called turmoil, with both political parties
sent packing, Trump may in fact represent real America. The fantasy the left markets, of a social
democratic welfare state is a myth. Next, we have grown up on a diet of our President elect, being
Commander in Chief, of the worlds most powerful military. So I ask, did Bill Clinton or Barack
Obama seem to Americans, like a commander in chief. Bush wasn't capable of responding to 9-11,
he tried and failed. Last Commander in Chief we had in our image was Ronald Reagan. Any wonder
our enemies are making hay while the sunshines. So now we have two very very admirable foes. China
and Russia neither with western values. How we now fit is up in the air. Getting Trump impeached
or forced to resign replaced with whoever won't change millions of Americans.
I would take exception to some of these comments about inevitable decline. The word decline suggests
to some end. That is very different than retraction or change.
When one examines China, Russia, Europe, these nations have been in play as states for 1500
years. And despite periods of retraction have maintained some semblance of their origins, more
than some. Their cores remain intact as to culture and practice despite differing polities What
is key for the US is her youth. We are unable to match the strategic long term strategies as the
states mentions because we have not been around long enough to seal our core existence as a nation.
Mistaking youthful exuberance for wisdom of age is where we are. There is no mistaking that
the US can remain a major player in world events and we should. But that process need not be at
the expense of who we are are becoming or in lieu of it.
I will have to dig out my Zsun Tsu. It is easy to apply those admonitions out of their intended
context. Because so many different environmental war scenarios are addressed. For example, Asia
plays the long game. They are not thinking merely about this century, this decade, this year,
month . . . but the next century. Hence the idea of long war. Consider how long they have been
on the Continent of Africa.
They are in a sense just waiting everyone else out. Iraq, blood in the water. Afghanistan,
blood in the water. They are not the least troubled that we are embroiled in the ME.
The size of our debt is troubling and the size of how much of that debt is owned by other states
is disturbing. China, some ten years ago, indicated that they are seeking a way around the power
of the dollar.
I am fully confident that we can survive the rise of any nation on earth. I believe we are
special unique, and endowed with an energy, ingenuity, vibrancy and psyche today's world. But
we are so inundated with a kind of can't do -- must accept attitude in social polity that undermines
sense of self. and that is where I think the force of a Pres Trump is helpful, reinvigorating.
Conserving a sense of self, identity is mandatory for survival.
And while I have opposed out latest military interventions as unnecessary, if we decide to
make war -- we had better do it to the full and be done with. This is more in line with what I
think Tzun Tzu -- destabilize the opponents psychology.
Here the importation of Doaist, Hindu, and other existentialist philosophies are upending western
thought. The humanities are tearing asunder our social and psychological meaning of self. Whether
it is soulmates, no anchored truth or reality or the notion of that human sexuality is malleable
and no right no wrong save as to individual minding and social circumstance . . . the system of
concreteness is being chiseled to nothingness.
"Such gimmicks might mess up the economy – and we did this, too – for the whole world."
Actually we did something else, we embraced the world's standards – Basel I and Basel II. Which
are major contributors to our economic system. When Pres Nixon pressed to go off the gold standard
. . . huge error.
Last week one of the toughest hurdles was to avoid getting into that ambulance I knew the minute
I did, I would be entering a system bent on bending me to its will.
Before we go about making the world -- we need a clear and clean sense of self and resist change,
regardless of the pressure by friend or foe.
" The United States filled this role for half a century, from 1945 until the Great Recession.
The world's economic hegemon must provide public goods that benefit the international system as
a whole, including: making the rules for the international economic order; opening its domestic
market to other states' exports; supplying liquidity to the global economy; and providing a reserve
currency."
Uhh you are playing fast and loose here with one overarching reality -- there really was no
one else left who could do so. And that lasted a good while. As those regions recovered, we continued
to provide without ever adjusting to the their own ability to provide. Prime example, our presence
in Europe, I would be interested in the ROI of defending the Europeans even as they make war on
others or encourage conflicts they themselves ave no intention of supporting, but are more than
happy that the US do so.
Paradoxically the acceleration in the decline began with the disintegration of the Soviet
Union. Incredible hubris followed, and we are reaping the usual results.
I think just the opposite. OBOR, AIIB and the Shanghai Group show China playing precisely by the
rules of the international, rules-based liberal order set up by the Western powers generally over
the last few centuries and particularly by the USA after WWII. China actually follows the international
rules. It hasn't invaded anyone since 1979. How many wars not authorized by the UNSC, and generally
either dubious or flat out in violation of international law, has the US engaged in since that
date? China does not interfere in the internal affairs of other nations. As the article states,
China follows the rules of Westphalian sovereignty. But it also follows the rules of international
law. China does not abuse its veto power in the UNSC, the way the Western powers, particularly
the USA, does. China is not looking to impose its way of life on other countries. And its international
initiatives, including the international organizations it has created and sponsored, are all about
trade, tourism, and co operation and development, as opposed to the USA's, which are all about
domination, ever expanding "defensive" military alliances, military bases everywhere, demeaning
and degrading, not to mention hypocritical, "human rights report cards," endless "sanctions" and
"embargoes" on everyone who does not do its bidding, covering up for the sins of its aggressive,
horrible client states, particularly Israel and the KSA, handing out cookies to coupsters in the
process of overthrowing legitimate, and even democratically elected, governments, and generally
sticking its nose into the elections of other countries, and now, with Trump, threatening to upset
the apple cart when it comes to international trade and tourism and cultural exchange.
The USA is the rogue state, in regard to the very international order that it played a huge
role in establishing. The USA can't even seem to go through an Olympic Games without making a
fuss about something or another.
"Rules and institutions do not exist in a vacuum. Rather, they reflect the distribution of
power in the international system. In global politics, the rules are made by those who rule international
politics 'cannot be understood independently of the political foundation on which it rests and
the political interests which it serves.' The post-World War II international order is an American
order that, while preserving world stability for a long time, primarily privileged U.S. and Western
interests. Proponents of 'lock-in' are saying that China will!indeed, must!agree to be a 'responsible
stakeholder' (with Washington defining the meaning of 'responsibility') in an international order
that it did not construct and that exists primarily to advance the interests of the United States.
In plain English, what those who believe in 'lock-in' expect is that an increasingly powerful
China will continue to accept playing second fiddle to the United States. But Beijing, by all
the evidence, does not see it that way. And OBOR and the AIIB prove the point. Instead of living
within the geopolitical, economic, and institutional confines imposed by Pax Americana, an increasingly
powerful China will seek to revise the international order so that it reflects its own political
and economic interests. Thus are OBOR and the AIIB straws in the wind. And, as the great Bob Dylan
said, you don't need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind is blowing."
Of course the distribution of power matters. But China is using its power within the liberal,
rules-based framework established by the West. It actually already behaves in a "responsible"
manner. It didn't invade Hong Kong or Macao, rather it made deals with the declining colonial
powers which controlled them. It doesn't invade Taiwan. Rather it uses diplomacy to slowly advance
its cause with respect to "One China." It uses its economic clout to develop trading partners,
not to try to bully them into political submission, a la the USA. It is patient with regard to
North Korea. It is patient with regard to US sabre rattling and blustering right at its borders.
It is patient and rule-abiding in just about everything. Its organization are bypassing the USA.
Not confronting it. If China eventually eclipses the USA, it will be because China has beaten
it at its own game.
Our moral decline leads to the other decline mentioned in the article. There's a statement
that says :"America is great because she is good But, she will cease to be great because she ceased
to be good" We've been in decline since the '60's and are coming to our "bottom" ( and end ) ever
more quickly
One thing not mentioned in the article is how we lost our technological lead. This in large part
due to our H1B program, which is a conveyor belt to transfer tech and organizational knowhow abroad.
Most R&D operations seem to be staffed largely by guest workers from China and India. Yes, there
is a saving on salaries, leading to profits. But in addition to the knowledge transfer, there
is the discouragement to US natives from entering tech fields.
For the scientific method can teach us nothing else beyond how facts are related to, and
conditioned by, each other. The aspiration toward such objective knowledge belongs to the
highest of which man is capable, and you will certainly not suspect me of wishing to belittle
the achievements and the heroic efforts of man in this sphere. Yet is equally clear that
knowledge of what is does not open the door directly to what should be. One can have the
clearest and most complete knowledge of what is , and yet not be able to deduct from that
what should be the goal of our human aspirations.
Objective knowledge provides us with powerful instruments for the achievements of certain
ends, but the ultimate goal itself and the longing to reach it must come from another source.
And it is hardly necessary to argue for the view that our existence and our activity acquire
meaning only by the setting up of such a goal and of corresponding values. (Albert Einstein,
1939)
I thought it dealt with thinking in general, just swell. ;-)
"... Returning to that first paragraph of Peters's piece, we find the basic positions of the neoliberal persuasion: opposition to unions and big government, support for the military and big business. ..."
"... Above all, neoliberals loathed unions, especially teachers unions. They still do , except insofar as they're useful funding devices for the contemporary Democratic Party. ..."
"... But reading Peters, it's clear that unions were, from the very beginning, the main target. The problems with unions were many: they protected their members' interests (no mention of how important unions were to getting and protecting Social Security and Medicare); they drove up costs, both in the private and the public sector; they defended lazy, incompetent workers ("we want a government that can fire people who can't or won't do the job"). ..."
On Tuesday,
New York
magazine's Jonathan Chait
tweeted
, "What if every use
of 'neoliberal' was replaced with, simply, 'liberal'? Would any non-propagandistic meaning be
lost?"
It was an odd tweet.
On the one hand, Chait was probably just voicing his disgruntlement with an epithet that
leftists and Sanders liberals often hurl against Clinton liberals like Chait.
On the other hand, there was a time, not so long ago, when journalists like Chait would have
proudly owned the term neoliberal as an apt description of their beliefs. It was the
New Republic
, after all, the magazine where Chait made his name, that, along with the
Washington Monthly
, first provided neoliberalism with a home and a face.
Now, neoliberalism, of course, can mean
a
great
many
things
, many of them
associated with the Right. But one of its meanings -- arguably, in the United States, the most
historically accurate -- is the
name
that a small group of journalists, intellectuals, and politicians on the Left gave to
themselves in the late 1970s in order to register their distance from the traditional
liberalism of the New Deal and the Great Society.
The original neoliberals included, among others, Michael Kinsley, Charles Peters, James
Fallows, Nicholas Lemann, Bill Bradley, Bruce Babbitt, Gary Hart, and Paul Tsongas. Sometimes
called "
Atari Democrats
," these were the men -- and they were almost all men -- who helped to remake
American liberalism into neoliberalism, culminating in the election of Bill Clinton in
1992.
These were the men who made Jonathan Chait what he is today. Chait, after all, would recoil
in horror at the policies and programs of mid-century liberals like Walter Reuther or John
Kenneth Galbraith or even Arthur Schlesinger, who
claimed
that "class conflict is essential if freedom is to be preserved, because it is the
only barrier against class domination." We know this because he
so resolutely
opposes
the more tepid versions of that liberalism that we see in the Sanders campaign.
It's precisely the distance between that lost world of twentieth century American
labor-liberalism and contemporary liberals like Chait that the phrase "neoliberalism" is meant,
in part
, to register.
We can see that distance first declared, and declared most clearly, in Charles Peters's
famous "
A
Neoliberal's Manifesto
," which Tim Barker reminded me of last night. Peters was the
founder and editor of the
Washington Monthly
, and in many ways the éminence
grise of the neoliberal movement.
In re-reading Peters's manifesto -- I remember reading it in high school; that was the kind
of thing a certain kind of nerdy liberal-ish sophomore might do -- I'm struck by how much it
sets out the lineaments of Chait-style thinking today.
The basic orientation is announced in the opening paragraph:
We still believe in liberty and justice for all, in mercy for the afflicted and help for
the down and out. But we no longer automatically favor unions and big government or oppose
the military and big business. Indeed, in our search for solutions that work, we have to
distrust all automatic responses, liberal or conservative.
Note the disavowal of all conventional ideologies and beliefs, the affirmation of an
open-minded pragmatism guided solely by a bracing commitment to what works. It's a leitmotif of
the entire manifesto: everyone else is blinded by their emotional attachments to the ideas of
the past.
We, the heroic few, are willing to look upon reality as it is, to take up solutions from any
side of the political spectrum, to disavow anything that smacks of ideological rigidity or
partisan tribalism.
That Peters wound up embracing solutions in the piece that put him comfortably within the
camp of GOP conservatism (he even makes a sop to school prayer) never seemed to disturb his
serenity as a self-identified iconoclast. That was part of the neoliberal esprit de corps: a
self-styled philosophical promiscuity married to a fairly conventional ideological
fidelity.
Listen to how former
New Republic
owner Marty Peretz
described
that
ethos in his look-back on the
New Republic
of the 1970s and 1980s:
My then-wife and I bought the New Republic in 1974. I was at the time a junior faculty
member at Harvard, and I installed a former student, Michael Kinsley, as its editor. We put
out a magazine that was intellectually daring, I like to think, and politically
controversial.
We were for the Contras in Nicaragua; wary of affirmative action; for military
intervention in Bosnia, Rwanda and Darfur; alarmed about the decline of the family. The
New Republic
was also an early proponent of gay rights. We were neoliberals. We were
also Zionists, and it was our defense of the Jewish state that put us outside the comfort
zone of modern progressive politics.
Except for gay rights and one or two items in that grab bag of foreign interventions, what
is Peretz saying here beyond the fact that his politics consisted mainly of supporting various
planks from the Republican Party platform? That was the intellectual daring, apparently.
Returning to that first paragraph of Peters's piece, we find the basic positions of the
neoliberal persuasion: opposition to unions and big government, support for the military and
big business.
Above all, neoliberals loathed unions, especially teachers unions. They
still do
, except insofar as they're useful funding devices for the contemporary Democratic
Party.
But reading Peters, it's clear that unions were, from the very beginning, the main
target. The problems with unions were many: they protected their members' interests (no mention
of how important unions were to getting and protecting Social Security and Medicare); they
drove up costs, both in the private and the public sector; they defended lazy, incompetent
workers ("we want a government that can fire people who can't or won't do the job").
Against unions, or conventional unions, Peters held out the promise of employee
stock-ownership plans (
ESOPs
), where workers would forgo higher wages and
benefits in return for stock options and ownership. He happily pointed to the example of
Weirton Steel
:
. . . where the workers accepted a 32 percent wage cut to keep their company alive. They
will not be suckers because they will own the plant and share in the future profits their
sacrifice makes possible. It's better for a worker to keep a job by accepting $12 an hour
than to lose it by insisting on $19.
(Sadly, within two decades, Weirton Steel was dead, and with it, those future profits and
wages for which those workers had sacrificed in the early 1980s.)
But above all, Peters and other neoliberals saw unions as the instruments of the most vile
subjugation of the most downtrodden members of society:
A poor black child might have a better chance of escaping the ghetto if we fired his
incompetent middle-class teacher . . .
The urban public schools have in fact become the principal instrument of class oppression
in America, keeping the lower orders in their place while the upper class sends its children
to private schools.
And here we see how in utero how the neoliberal argument works its magic on the Left.
On the one hand, Peters showed how much the neoliberal was indebted to the Great Society
ethos of the 1960s. That ethos was a departure from the New Deal insofar as it proclaimed its
solidarity with the most desperate and the most needy.
Michael Harrington's
The
Other America
, for example, treated the poor not as a central part of the political
economy, as the New Deal did. The poor were superfluous to that economy: there was America,
which was middle-class and mainstream; there was the "other," which was poor and marginal. The
Great Society declared a War on Poverty, which was thought to be a project different from
managing and regulating the economy.
On the other hand, Peters showed how potent, and potently disabling, that kind of thinking
could be. In the hands of neoliberalism, it became fashionable to pit the interests of the poor
not against the power of the wealthy but against the unionized working class.
(We still see that kind of talk among today's Democrats, particularly in debates around free
trade, where it is always the unionized worker -- never the
well-paid journalist or economist
or corporate CEO
-- who is expected to make sacrifices on behalf of the global poor. Or
among Hillary Clinton supporters, who leverage the interests of African American voters against
the interests of white working-class voters, but never against the interests of capital.)
Teachers unions in the inner cities were ground zero of the neoliberal obsession. But it
wasn't just teachers unions. It was all unions:
In both the public and private sector, unions were seeking and getting wage increases that
had the effect of reducing or eliminating employment opportunities for people who were trying
to get a foot on the first run of the ladder.
And it wasn't just unions that were a problem. It was big-government liberalism as a
whole:
Too many liberals . . . refused to criticize their friends in the industrial unions and
the civil service who were pulling up the ladder. Thus liberalism was becoming a movement of
those who had arrived, who cared more about preserving and expanding their own gains than
about helping those in need.
That government jobs are critical for women and African Americans -- as Annie Lowrey shows in
an
excellent
recent piece
-- has long been known in traditional liberal and labor circles.
That it is only recently registered among journalists -- who, even when they take the long
view, focus almost exclusively, as Lowrey does, on the role of GOP governors in the aughts
rather than on these long-term shifts in Democratic Party thinking -- tells us something about
the break between liberalism and neoliberalism that Chait believes is so fanciful.
Oddly, as soon as Peters was done attacking unions and civil-service jobs for doling out
benefits to the few -- ignoring all the women and people of color who were increasingly reliant
on these instruments for their own advance -- he turned around and attacked programs like Social
Security and Medicare for doing precisely the opposite: protecting everyone.
Take Social Security. The original purpose was to protect the elderly from need. But, in
order to secure and maintain the widest possible support, benefits were paid to rich and poor
alike. The catch, of course, is that a lot of money is wasted on people who don't need it . .
.
Another way the practical and the idealistic merge in neoliberal thinking in is our
attitude toward income maintenance programs like Social Security, welfare, veterans'
pensions, and unemployment compensation. We want to eliminate duplication and apply a means
test to these programs. They would all become one insurance program against need.
As a practical matter, the country can't afford to spend money on people who don't need it -- my aunt who uses her Social Security check to go to Europe or your brother-in-law who uses
his unemployment compensation to finance a trip to Florida. And as liberal idealists, we
don't think the well-off should be getting money from these programs anyway -- every cent we
can afford should go to helping those really in need.
Kind of like Hillary Clinton criticizing Bernie Sanders for supporting free college
education for all on the grounds that Donald Trump's kids shouldn't get their education paid
for? (And let's not forget that as recently as the last presidential campaign, the Democratic
candidate was more than willing to trumpet his credentials as a cutter of
Social Security and
Medicare
, though thankfully he never entertained the idea of turning them into
means-tested programs.)
It's difficult to make sense of what truly drives this contradiction, whereby one liberalism
is criticized for supporting only one segment of the population while another liberalism is
criticized for supporting all segments, including the poor.
It could be as simple as the belief that government should work on behalf of only the truly
disadvantaged, leaving everyone else to the hands of the market. That that turned out to be a
disaster for the truly disadvantaged -- with no one besides themselves to speak up on behalf of
anti-poverty programs, those programs proved all too easy to eliminate, not by a Republican but
by a
Democrat
-- seems not to have much troubled the sleep of neoliberalism.
Indeed, in the current election, it is Hillary Clinton's support for the 1994 crime bill
rather than the 1996 welfare reform bill that has gotten the most attention, even though she
proudly stated in her
memoir
that she not
only supported the 1996 bill but rounded up votes for it.
Or perhaps it's that neoliberals of the Left, like their counterparts on the
Right
,
simply came to believe that the market was for winners, government for losers. Only the poor
needed government; everyone else was made for capitalism.
"Risk is indeed the essence of the movement," declared Peters of his merry band of
neoliberal men, and though he had something different in mind when he said that, it's clear
from the rest of his manifesto that the risk-taking entrepreneur really was what made his and
his friends' hearts beat fastest.
Our hero is the risk-taking entrepreneur who creates new jobs and better products.
"Americans," says Bill Bradley, "have to begin to treat risk more as an opportunity and not
as a threat."
Whatever the explanation for this attitude toward government and the poor, it's clear that
we're still living in the world the neoliberals made.
When Clinton's
main line of
attack
against Sanders is that his proposals would increase the size of the federal
government by 40 percent, when her
hawkishness
remains an unapologetic part of her campaign, when unions barely register except as an ATM for
the Democratic Party, and
Wall Street
firmly declares itself to be in her camp, we can hear that opening call of
Peters -- "But we no longer automatically favor unions and big government or oppose the military
and big business" -- shorn of all awkward hesitation and convoluted formulations, articulated
instead in the forthright syntax of common sense and everyday truth.
Perhaps
that
is why Jonathan Chait cannot tell the difference between liberalism
and neoliberalism.
"... By Thom Hartmann. a talk-show host and author of over 25 books in print.. Originally published at AlterNet . ..."
"... Yes. I thank Hartmann for pointing out the latest power grabs by our corporate masters. Still, his ignoring Clinton, Obama and the rest just puts him in with all the other political tribalists, who by their tribalism distract from the main problems – and their ultimate solutions. It's a class war, Thom, The Only War That Matters. ..."
"... I can disagree with you that this here republic is a democracy. ..."
"... Fair enough. The United States is no longer a representative democracy (and it was only that way occasionally in the past); it's currently an oligarchic plutocracy. But if we hope to regain any semblance of a representative democracy, we need to actively participate. There are many reasons why we've degenerated into a plutocracy, and one of those reasons is that people don't participate enough. ..."
"... "And anything that would make somebody not want to move here or start a company here is going to slow down our progress." ..."
"... The vast majority of the labor market is shifting gears to function as the servant class to the very rich. It is a painful transition as recent gains in labor rights are lost. ..."
"... The last 70 years was an aberration. It will not return, short of a major uprising. Given the state's security apparatus that prospect is extremely unlikely. ..."
"... And I do not agree with Thom's Indentured servitude meme; he gives no real examples, just generalities. I would submit that a neo-feudal system is the fact on the ground. The difference; a serf has land (and yes, he's attached to it), a house, and a modicum of freedom; as long as he takes care of his lord. ..."
"... All information is managed; and this includes the unemployment figures; pure fiction by the way. An indentured servant has work; 20 million(?) or more Usians have no work, and little hope of finding meaningful employment. ..."
"... The importance of this can not be underestimated; human dignity is at stake; we're a society brought up on the importance of being "gainfully" employed. Our society is being intentionally crushed to make us serfs in a neo-feudal society. ..."
"... 20+ years ago in Athens, GA, there was a local chicken place. Good food if you like that kind of thing. Come to find the employees who fried the chicken and worked the service counter were forbidden by the language of their "contracts" to quit for a dollar an hour more at another local restaurant. The first company didn't actually have the means to take its former employees to court, but they had the "right" to do so. Bill Clinton, neoliberal to his rotten core, was happily the president, feeling our pain. ..."
"... These days, even janitors are being required to sign non-compete clauses. When Krishna Regmi started work as a personal care aide for a Pittsburgh home health agency in 2015, he was given a stack of paperwork to sign. "They just told us, 'It's just a formality, sign here, here, here,' " he said. Regmi didn't think much of it. That is, until he quit his job nine months later and announced his decision to move to a rival agency -- and his ex-employer sued him for violating a noncompete clause Regmi says he didn't know he had signed. The agreement barred Regmi from working as a personal care aide at another home health agency for two years. ..."
"... In California, North Dakota and Oklahoma, the law says the agreements are unenforceable; judges will just throw them out. In other states, statutes and case law create a set of tests that the agreements must pass. In Oregon, for instance, they can only be enforced if workers have two weeks to consider them before taking a job, or if the worker gets a "bona fide advancement" in return, such as a raise. ..."
"... The author fails to point out that H1-B is also indentured servitude. ..."
"... The merging of corporate power with the state is called "fascism." This was described by both Benito Mussolini and FDR's vice-president Henry Wallace. But the term "fascism" isn't mentioned in the article. Importantly, fascists are sworn enemies of communism and socialism, and this is how they can be identified. ..."
"... The US is definitely getting more feudal. ..."
"... It's about bullying and intimidation. Like most bullies, the companies are cowards who would back down if challenged, because it would make little economic sense to sue minimum-wage ex-employees. They're relying on the employees being too cowed to call their bluff, so they choose to stay even if unhappy. ..."
"... Non-compete clauses sound like something that will create a hostile work force; that may not be so good for these companies. Articles like this make me think of "Space Merchants", an amusing science fiction satire on capitalism by Pohl and Kornbluth. ..."
"... Perhaps there are other options in responding to the types of abuse detailed in this post, in addition to the political action Thom Hartmann called for. One such action might be characterized as "Passive NonParticipation" with your brains, craftsmanship and know-how to the extent possible, yet still retain your job. ..."
Indentured servitude is back in a big way in the United States, and conservative
corporatists want to make sure that labor never, ever again has the power to tell big business
how to treat them.
Idaho
, for example, recently passed a law that recognizes and rigorously enforces
non-compete agreements in employment contracts, which means that if you want to move to a
different, more highly paid, or better job, you can instead get wiped out financially by
lawsuits and legal costs.
In a way, conservative/corporatists are just completing the circle back to the founding of
this country.
Indentured servitude began in a big way in the early 1600s, when the British East India
Company was establishing a
beachhead
in the (newly stolen from the Indians) state of Virginia (named after the "virgin queen"
Elizabeth I, who signed the charter of the BEIC creating the first modern corporation in 1601).
Jamestown (named after King James, who followed Elizabeth I to the crown) wanted free labor,
and the African slave trade wouldn't start to crank up for another decade.
So the company made a deal with impoverished Europeans: Come to work for typically 4-7 years
(some were lifetime indentures, although those were less common), legally as the property of
the person or company holding your indenture, and we'll pay for your transport across the
Atlantic.
It was, at least philosophically, the logical extension of the feudal economic and political
system that had ruled Europe for over 1,000 years. The rich have all the rights and own all the
property; the serfs are purely exploitable free labor who could be disposed of (
indentured
servants
, like slaves, were commonly whipped, hanged, imprisoned, or killed when they
rebelled or were not sufficiently obedient).
This type of labor system has been the dream of conservative/corporatists, particularly
since the "Reagan Revolution" kicked off a major federal war on the right of workers to
organize for their own protection from corporate abuse.
Unions represented
almost a third of American workers
when Reagan came into office (and, since union jobs set
local labor standards, for every union job there was typically an identically-compensated
non-union job, meaning about two-thirds of America had the benefits and pay associated with
union jobs pre-Reagan).
Thanks to Reagan's war on labor, today unions represent about 6 percent of the
non-government workforce.
But that wasn't enough for the acolytes of Ayn Rand, Ronald Reagan and Milton Friedman. They
didn't just want workers to lose their right to collectively bargain; they wanted employers to
functionally own their employees.
Prior to the current Reaganomics era, non-compete agreements were pretty much limited to
senior executives and scientists/engineers.
If you were a CEO or an engineer for a giant company, knowing all their processes, secrets
and future plans, that knowledge had significant and consequential value!company value worth
protecting with a contract that said you couldn't just take that stuff to a competitor without
either a massive payment to the left-behind company or a flat-out lawsuit.
But should a guy who digs holes with a shovel or works on a
drilling rig
be
forced to sign a non-compete? What about a person who flips burgers or waits tables in a
restaurant? Or the few factory workers we have left, since neoliberal trade policies have moved
the jobs of tens of thousands of
companies
overseas?
Turns out corporations are using non-competes to prevent even these types of employees from
moving to newer or better jobs.
America today has the lowest minimum wage in
nearly 50
years
, adjusted for inflation. As a result, people are often looking for better jobs. But
according to the
New York Times
,
about 1 in 5 American workers is now locked in with a non-compete clause in an employment
contract.
Before Reaganomics, employers didn't keep their employees by threatening them with lawsuits;
instead, they offered them benefits like insurance, paid vacations and decent wages. Large
swaths of American workers could raise a family and have a decent retirement with a basic job
ranging from manufacturing to construction to service industry work.
My
dad
was one of them; he worked 40 years in a tool-and-die shop, and the machinist's union
made sure he could raise and put through school four boys, could take 2-3 weeks of paid
vacation every year, and had full health insurance and a solid retirement until the day he
died, which continued with my mom until she died years later. Most boomers (particularly white
boomers) can tell you the same story.
That America has been largely destroyed by Reaganomics, and Americans know it. It's why when
Donald Trump told voters that the big corporations and banksters were screwing them, they voted
for him and his party (not realizing that neither Trump nor the GOP had any intention of doing
anything to help working people).
And now the conservatives/corporatists are going in for the kill, for their top goal: the
final destruction of any remnant of labor rights in America.
Why would they do this? Two reasons: An impoverished citizenry is a politically impotent
citizenry, and in the process of destroying the former middle class, the 1 percent make
themselves trillions of dollars richer.
The New York Times has done some great reporting on this problem, with an article
last
May
and a more
recent
piece
about how the state of Idaho has made it nearly impossible for many workers to escape
their servitude.
Historically, indentured servants had their food, health care, housing, and clothing
provided to them by their "employers." Today's new serfs can hardly afford these basics of
life, and when you add in modern necessities like transportation, education and child-care, the
American labor landscape is looking more and more like old-fashioned servitude.
Nonetheless, conservatives/corporatists in Congress and state-houses across the nation are
working hard to hold down minimum wages. Missouri's Republican legislature just made it illegal
for St. Louis to raise their minimum wage to $10/hour, throwing workers back down to $7.70.
More preemption laws
like this are on the books or on their way.
At the same time, these conservatives/corporatists are working to roll back health care
protections for Americans, roll back environmental protections that keep us and our children
from being poisoned, and even roll back simple workplace, food and toy safety standards.
The only way these predators will be stopped is by massive political action leading to the
rollback of Reaganism/neoliberalism.
And the conservatives/corporatists who largely own the Republican Party know it, which is
why they're
purging voting lists
, fighting to keep in place
easily hacked voting machines
, and throwing billions of dollars into think tanks,
right-wing radio, TV, and online media.
If they succeed, America will revert to a very old form of economy and politics: the one
described so well in Charles Dickens' books when Britain had "
maximum wage laws
" and "Poor Laws" to prevent a
strong and politically active middle class from emerging.
Conservatives/corporatists know well that this type of
neo-feudalism
is actually a very stable political and economic system, and one that's hard to challenge.
China has put it into place in large part, and other countries from Turkey to the Philippines
to Brazil and Venezuela are falling under the thrall of the merger of corporate and state
power.
So many of our individual rights have been
stripped
from us, so much of America's middle-class progress in the last century has been
torn from us
, while
conservatives wage a brutal and oppressive war on dissenters and people of color under the
rubrics of "security," "tough on crime," and the "war on drugs."
As a result, America has 5 percent of the world's population and 25 percent of the
world's prisoners
, more
than any other nation on earth, all while opiate epidemics are ravaging our nation. And what to
do about it?
Scientists have proven that the likelihood the desires of the bottom 90 percent of Americans
get enacted into law are now equal to statistical "
random
noise
." Functionally, most of us no longer have any real representation in state or
federal legislative bodies: they now exist almost exclusively to serve the very wealthy.
The neo-feudal corporate/conservative elite are both politically and financially committed
to replacing the last traces of worker power in America with a modern system of indentured
servitude.
Only serious and committed political action can reverse this; we're long past the point
where complaining or sitting on the sidelines is an option.
As both Bernie Sanders and Barack Obama regularly said (and I've closed my radio show for 14
years with), "Democracy is not a spectator sport."
Wait, no mention of the Clinton administration and those Rubin acolytes? I find that hard
to believe, those 8 years in the 90s were significant for today's outsized CEO pay and
incentives.
First-Term Reagan Baby approves this post. New Deal was under attack before FDR's body got
cold. Truman instead of Wallace in the VP slot in '44 was a dark day for humanity.
Then there is probation board / court bonds slavery. The slave is captured by the police,
then chained to debt and papers first by a bond and then later upon "early" release to a
probation officer. The slave has restrictions on his freedom by the probation orders, and
must make good the money owed the bondsman and the court ordered fines. The slaves work for
the benefit of the political and monied class who don't need to pay much if any tax burden
for all their government delivered goods thanks to this system of slavery.
Hartmann closes with, "As both Bernie Sanders and Barack Obama regularly 'Democracy is not
a spectator sport'." Hello Thom: Sanders has twisted himself with pretzel logic regarding
neoliberalism and Obama is a full-blown neoliberal (who you seem to forget admired Ronald
Reagan).
That sentence also caught my attention and reminded me of John Kennedy junior's George
magazine, marketing "politics as a lifestyle choice" and featuring Cindy Crawford on the
inaugural cover. Allied to the MSM's obsession with identity politics, as a neo-liberal and
neo-con driver of news, one is soon distracted from, if not disgusted with, what's going on.
Thank God for (the) Naked Capitalism (community).
Yeah like Obama cared about unions and workers' rights. What happened to EFCA? What
happened to the comfy shoes Obama said he would wear to walk with public sector workers in
Wisconsin? Obama never fought for workers but he fought like hell for the TPP even going on
Jimmy Fallon's show and slow jamming for it.
Obama is like the rest of the neoliberal Democrats. They think that unions and workers'
rights are anti-meritocratic. Unions are only good for money and foot soldiers during the
election. After the election they are basically told to get bent.
Yes thanks for mentioning the EFCA. I'm so old I remember when the Democrat party
campaigned hard on that – "If you give us back the majority in Congress blah blah blah
.". And as soon as they won said majority they never mentioned it again.
Yes. I thank Hartmann for pointing out the latest power grabs by our corporate masters.
Still, his ignoring Clinton, Obama and the rest just puts him in with all the other political
tribalists, who by their tribalism distract from the main problems – and their ultimate
solutions. It's a class war, Thom, The Only War That Matters.
One can disagree with Obama or Sanders about various issues, but democracy is definitely
not a spectator sport. People need to vote in both primary and general elections, and not
just in the big Presidential years. People need to vote in midterm primary and general
elections, as well as the elections in odd numbered years, if their states have such
elections.
They also need to actively support good candidates, and communicate their opinions to the
politicians who hold office. Periodically, people post comments about the futility of voting,
or they say that not voting is a way to send a message. Nonsense! Failure to participate is
not a form of participation, it's just a way of tacitly approving of the status quo.
Well I hope I can disagree with you that this here republic is a democracy. There isn't
even a party I can think of which operates democratically.
Supporting a good candidate is asking people to participate in spectator sport-like
activity. The people, party members, should determine a platform and the candidate/office
holder should be obligated to sell/enact/administrate it.
The rich tell their politicians/parties what to do so should the rest of us.
"
I can disagree with you that this here republic is a democracy.
"
Fair enough. The United States is no longer a representative democracy (and it was only
that way occasionally in the past); it's currently an oligarchic plutocracy. But if we hope
to regain any semblance of a representative democracy, we need to actively participate. There
are many reasons why we've degenerated into a plutocracy, and one of those reasons is that
people don't participate enough.
"Supporting a good candidate is asking people to participate in spectator sport-like
activity"
Sure, if people don't participate in the primary process, all they have to choose from in
the general election is a couple of tools of the oligarchs. They also need to do many of the
things in the quote from Howard Zinn that Alejandro provided.
"If democracy were to be given any meaning, if it were to go beyond the limits of
capitalism and nationalism, this would not come, if history were any guide, from the top. It
would come through citizen's movements, educating, organizing, agitating, striking,
boycotting, demonstrating, threatening those in power with disruption of the stability they
needed."–Howard Zinn
Great post, although I think it goes a little out of its way to ignore referencing
Democrats as an equal part of the problem, as they too are "conservative/corporatists". Party
politics is theater for the plebes, nothing more. These "people" have the same values and
desires.
Thank you to Lambert. Indentured labourers were also used by the French colonial ventures,
including Mauritius / Ile Maurice, known as Isle de France when under French rule from 1715
– 1810.
Many of the labourers lived alongside slaves and, later, free men and women. They also
intermarried, beginning what are now called Creoles in the Indian Ocean, Caribbean and
Louisiana. I am one of their descendants.
In 1936, my great grandfather and others, mainly Creoles, founded the Labour Party in
Mauritius. A year later, they organised the first strike, a general, which resulted in four
sugar factory workers being shot and killed at Union-Flacq sugar estate.
From what my
grandmother and her aunt and sister, all of whom used to knit banners and prepare food and
drink for the 1 May, and my father report, it's amazing and depressing to see the progress of
the mid-1930s to 1970s being rolled back
. It's also depressing to hear from so many, let's
call them the 10%, criticise trade unions and think that progress was achieved by magic.
Plutonium Kun wrote about that recently.
Thom – I agree with your outrage; however, the truth is that economically the US has
been broke since the 1970's and it doesn't matter. Nothing will change until our we have an
honest monetary system, and until unearned income is tax properly – the rich have
gotten richer and corporations have hijacked our government, whining about it does nothing,
this will go on until something breaks and then we will see what happens.
What is going on in Idaho? Why would the state politicians do such a thing? From the Idaho link which is the NY Times, reveals the real reason. Believe it or not.
"We're trying to build the tech ecosystem in Boise," said George Mulhern, chief
executive of Cradlepoint, a company here that makes routers and other networking equipment.
"And anything that would make somebody not want to move here or start a company here is going
to slow down our progress."
Alex LaBeau, president of the Idaho Association of Commerce and Industry , a trade
group that represents many of the state's biggest employers, countered: "This is about
companies protecting their assets in a competitive marketplace ."
Alex doesn't get irony. What price discovery? Where are economists on this? Why are they radio silent? To
paraphrase Franklin, a market, if you can keep it.
Again and again and again, we see narcissist lawyer/politicians doing stuff that is
completely demented, from a normal person's point of view. They will be gone in a few years,
but the idiotic laws remain.
Tech is neither here nor there in it, I mean they say being able to leave jobs easily was
a tech advantage in California where people could leave to start new businesses etc.. So I'm
not sure how tech actually lines up on it, and it's almost not the point, even when it does
good it's no substitute for an organization that really represents labor. It might be better
in California due to tech pressure, but probably mostly because it's a deep blue state, which
tends to make places slightly more tolerable places to live. Well as much as we're going to
get when what we really need is socialists in the legislature but nonetheless.
Yes these practices are slavery. Indentured servitude is almost too polite, but I get it's
more P.C..
It's not exactly the same as employee non-competition contracts, but remember the scandal
about the Silicon Valley companies that privately agreed not to hire each others' employees?
Here's one of the many articles about this:
I imagine that a few companies will move to Idaho to take advantage of the favorable legal
climate, and will leave even more quickly when they can't recruit the talent they need. Speaking as a Software Engineer, the only impact this new law has is to put Idaho at the
top of my list of "places I won't consider for relocation."
Mulhern is an idiot then because there is a fair amount of evidence that CA's lax
enforcement and very skeptical enforcement of non competes is an important factor on why
Silicon Valley has thrived. My sense is that this is purely to protect the status quo among
large local employers and nothing to do with growing the local ecosystem or smaller
firms. Good luck trying to recruit top-flight talent especially engineers/programmers to Boise
with most companies have a vigorous year or 2-year non-competes in place.
Ultimately, Idahoans will shoot themselves in the asses, never mind assets. I know
"ecosystem" is a bullshit tell but it's another word for network effects and the network is
short circuited by these laws.
Laws preventing an employee from leaving means there is less mixing of talent, making
everyone worse off. That's how we learn, getting in there and doing it, whatever it is, and
by moving to another employer you transfer and pick up knowledge and experience.
What makes it farcical, is that Big Co Management never envisions itself in their
employees shoes.
The vast majority of the labor market is shifting gears to function as the servant class
to the very rich.
It is a painful transition as recent gains in labor rights are lost.
Becoming a willing
supplicant and attaching oneself to a rich and powerful family is the best way to better
one's prospects.
The last 70 years was an aberration. It will not return, short of a major
uprising. Given the state's security apparatus that prospect is extremely unlikely.
Not a Thom Hartmann fanboy; he deals in glittering generalities and treats serious subject
matter in a deeply superficial manner.
Having been a Teamster in warehousing and metal trades; they were corrupt and in management's
pocket in those places I worked.
I'm a huge proponent for labor and the ideal of labor unions (as imagined by the wobblies);
not the reality on the ground today.
And I do not agree with Thom's Indentured servitude meme; he gives no real examples, just
generalities.
I would submit that a neo-feudal system is the fact on the ground. The difference; a serf has
land (and yes, he's attached to it), a house, and a modicum of freedom; as long as he takes
care of his lord.
Usian's are now, in fact, prisoners of war. Living in a broken system where voting no longer
counts; the very back bone of a democratic society. The "two" parties have merged into one
entity looking very much like the ouroboros (a snake eating its tail).
All information is managed; and this includes the unemployment figures; pure fiction by the
way.
An indentured servant has work; 20 million(?) or more Usians have no work, and little hope of
finding meaningful employment.
The importance of this can not be underestimated; human dignity is at stake; we're a society
brought up on the importance of being "gainfully" employed.
Our society is being intentionally crushed to make us serfs in a neo-feudal society.
20+ years ago in Athens, GA, there was a local chicken place. Good food if you like that
kind of thing. Come to find the employees who fried the chicken and worked the service
counter were forbidden by the language of their "contracts" to quit for a dollar an hour more
at another local restaurant. The first company didn't actually have the means to take its
former employees to court, but they had the "right" to do so. Bill Clinton, neoliberal to his
rotten core, was happily the president, feeling our pain.
And his own, courtesy of Newt
Gingrich et al.
Thank you, Rick. It was not just our pain that Clinton and Nootie were feeling. Speaking of Mr Bill, his family's role in Haiti, amongst other places reduced to penury,
should earn them a place in infamy.
he didn't suggest that, maybe that's what he meant, maybe somewhere else in his
communications he says that, but it's not in the article.
Yes a problem is people don't know where or even how to apply any sort of pressure to
change things
But one plus of these things being somewhat decided on the state level, is it is more
obvious how to go about change there than with the Fed gov where things seem almost hopeless,
try to elect people who stand against these policies for instance, easier done some places
than others of course, but
Occupy did make a difference, at least in how the public paying attention mostly to
broadcast news and the "important" newspapers were concerned. Young people, especially, began
to realize what they were up against in this corporatized economy where all the power went to
the wealthy.
I'll bet a lot of Occupiers actually began to understand just what Neoliberalism
meant!
And the amount of planning and effort the Obama WH spent organizing the Federal agencies
and state/local governments to shut down the Occupy encampments indicated to me just how much
they feared the effects of Occupy.
Well . . . Occupy was clearly making enough of a difference that the Obama Administration
worked with the 18 Democratic Party Mayors of 18 different cities to stamp it out with heavy
police stompout presence. The Zucotti clearout in NYC, for example, was just exactly the way
Obama liked it done.
People subject to politicians should begin a coordinated effort to use a common approach
to get the truth. Demand transparency, with all campaign contributions, lobbyist contacts,
voting records, committee memberships and such all in one place. Use that information to
provide a score to show the degree of voter representation. Not sure how that would work,
just brainstorming to try some new approach as current ones have failed.
These days, even janitors are being required to sign non-compete clauses. When Krishna Regmi started work as a personal care aide for a Pittsburgh home health
agency in 2015, he was given a stack of paperwork to sign. "They just told us, 'It's just a
formality, sign here, here, here,' " he said. Regmi didn't think much of it. That is, until he quit his job nine months later and
announced his decision to move to a rival agency -- and his ex-employer sued him for
violating a noncompete clause Regmi says he didn't know he had signed. The agreement barred
Regmi from working as a personal care aide at another home health agency for two years.
. . . . .
Bills in Maine, Maryland and Massachusetts would restrict noncompete agreements that
involve low-wage employees; New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman, a Democrat, is
pushing for the same change in his state. Proposals in Massachusetts and Washington would
also restrict the agreements for other types of workers, such as temporary employees and
independent contractors.
Such bills face an uphill struggle, however, often because of stiff opposition from
business. "Non-compete agreements are essential to the growth and viability of businesses
by protecting trade secrets and promoting business development," the Maryland Chamber of
Commerce said in written testimony opposing a bill Carr introduced that would have voided
agreements signed by workers who earn less than $15 an hour. The bill passed the House in
February but died in the Senate.
. . . . . .
Some good news:
In California, North Dakota and Oklahoma, the law says the agreements are unenforceable;
judges will just throw them out. In other states, statutes and case law create a set of
tests that the agreements must pass. In Oregon, for instance, they can only be enforced if
workers have two weeks to consider them before taking a job, or if the worker gets a "bona
fide advancement" in return, such as a raise.
States have tightened up enforcement criteria in recent years, propelled by news
reports, Starr's research and encouragement from the Obama White House. In addition to
Illinois' law banning noncompete agreements for low-wage workers, last year Utah passed a
law that voided agreements that restricted workers for more than a year; Rhode Island
invalidated them for physicians; and Connecticut limited how long and in what geographic
area physicians can be bound.
Yet Starr's survey research suggests that tweaking the criteria may have a limited
effect on how often the agreements are signed. In California, where noncompete agreements
can't be enforced, 19 percent of workers have signed one, he said. In Florida, where the
agreements are easily enforced, the share is the same: 19 percent.
The merging of corporate power with the state is called "fascism." This was described by
both Benito Mussolini and FDR's vice-president Henry Wallace. But the term "fascism" isn't
mentioned in the article. Importantly, fascists are sworn enemies of communism and socialism,
and this is how they can be identified.
NC is one of the few blogs where I read the comments.- this was a good article until the
wtf comment at the end.
Great Britain in an 1833 Act of the Parliament of the United Kingdom abolished slavery
throughout the British Empire (with the exceptions "of the Territories in the Possession of
the East India Company" (how is that not surprising), Ceylon, now Sri Lanka, and Saint
Helena; the exceptions were eliminated in 1843). "Who ya gonna get to do the dirty work when
all the slaves are free?" Indentured servants from India – the biggest ethnic group in
British Guiana (now Guyana) are from India Indians.
The US is definitely getting more feudal.
while i dont disagree thats it not happening, it just seems extremely short sighted, as
without a large growing middle class, corporations are dooming them selves to lower income
(profits) in the long term. but then no one can really accuse corporations of having a long
term view
But perhaps the rich people hiding behind the corporate veil are motivated by class
sadism, not class greed. Perhaps they are ready to lose half what they have in order to
destroy both halves of what we have.
I don't see the problem. You're getting somewhere around minimum wage, and so a lawyer
wouldn't take you even if you knew how to find one suitable, which you don't.
So you look at your boss and say, "Sue me." What's the gut to do? Hire a lawyer? Use one
on staff? This is a civil case, so what damages is he claiming?
Then how's the judge going to look on this. Any judge I've known would be pissed livid to
get stuck with a bullcrap case like this. Imagine when every judge is looking at his docket
filled with this nonsense. How long before he starts slapping your boss with contempt?
We're sitting around complaining how bad our bosses are, bet we have another, must worse
problem. Employees have turned to wimps over their boss's every utterance. Here's a tip.
Probably a half and more of whatever is in you employment "contract" (it probably doesn't
even qualify legally as one) is either illegal or unenforceable. Pretend it isn't there.
And above all, STOP rolling over to these jerks. If your biggest problem is a non-compete
on a minimum wage contract, your world has already fallen apart. If your bosses problem is
that he thinks he needs them, his world is about to.
It's about bullying and intimidation.
Like most bullies, the companies are cowards who would back down if challenged, because it
would make little economic sense to sue minimum-wage ex-employees.
They're relying on the employees being too cowed to call their bluff, so they choose to stay
even if unhappy.
Non-compete clauses sound like something that will create a hostile work force; that may
not be so good for these companies. Articles like this make me think of "Space Merchants", an amusing science fiction satire
on capitalism by Pohl and Kornbluth.
The East India Company did not establish a foothold in Virginia! That was the Virginia
Company! This basic factual error mars an article that otherwise makes a very good point.
Perhaps there are other options in responding to the types of abuse detailed in this
post, in addition to the political action Thom Hartmann called for. One such action might be
characterized as "Passive NonParticipation" with your brains, craftsmanship and know-how to
the extent possible, yet still retain your job.
In the waning years of the Soviet Union, the mantra was "They pretend to pay us, and we
pretend to work." I suspect many American workers have already figured out the minimum amount
of work necessary to retain their jobs and incomes, hence the recent decline in one of the
"elite's" most cherished metrics, "productivity" (besides wealth concentration, of
course).
"... Returning to that first paragraph of Peters's piece, we find the basic positions of the neoliberal persuasion: opposition to unions and big government, support for the military and big business. ..."
"... Above all, neoliberals loathed unions, especially teachers unions. They still do , except insofar as they're useful funding devices for the contemporary Democratic Party. ..."
"... But reading Peters, it's clear that unions were, from the very beginning, the main target. The problems with unions were many: they protected their members' interests (no mention of how important unions were to getting and protecting Social Security and Medicare); they drove up costs, both in the private and the public sector; they defended lazy, incompetent workers ("we want a government that can fire people who can't or won't do the job"). ..."
On Tuesday, New York magazine's Jonathan Chait tweeted , "What if every use
of 'neoliberal' was replaced with, simply, 'liberal'? Would any non-propagandistic meaning be
lost?"
It was an odd tweet.
On the one hand, Chait was probably just voicing his disgruntlement with an epithet that
leftists and Sanders liberals often hurl against Clinton liberals like Chait.
On the other hand, there was a time, not so long ago, when journalists like Chait would have
proudly owned the term neoliberal as an apt description of their beliefs. It was the
New Republic , after all, the magazine where Chait made his name, that, along with the
Washington Monthly , first provided neoliberalism with a home and a face.
Now, neoliberalism, of course, can mean agreatmanythings , many of them
associated with the Right. But one of its meanings -- arguably, in the United States, the most
historically accurate -- is the
name that a small group of journalists, intellectuals, and politicians on the Left gave to
themselves in the late 1970s in order to register their distance from the traditional
liberalism of the New Deal and the Great Society.
The original neoliberals included, among others, Michael Kinsley, Charles Peters, James
Fallows, Nicholas Lemann, Bill Bradley, Bruce Babbitt, Gary Hart, and Paul Tsongas. Sometimes
called "
Atari Democrats ," these were the men -- and they were almost all men -- who helped to remake
American liberalism into neoliberalism, culminating in the election of Bill Clinton in
1992.
These were the men who made Jonathan Chait what he is today. Chait, after all, would recoil
in horror at the policies and programs of mid-century liberals like Walter Reuther or John
Kenneth Galbraith or even Arthur Schlesinger, who
claimed that "class conflict is essential if freedom is to be preserved, because it is the
only barrier against class domination." We know this because he so resolutely
opposes the more tepid versions of that liberalism that we see in the Sanders campaign.
It's precisely the distance between that lost world of twentieth century American
labor-liberalism and contemporary liberals like Chait that the phrase "neoliberalism" is meant,
in part , to register.
We can see that distance first declared, and declared most clearly, in Charles Peters's
famous " A
Neoliberal's Manifesto ," which Tim Barker reminded me of last night. Peters was the
founder and editor of the Washington Monthly , and in many ways the éminence
grise of the neoliberal movement.
In re-reading Peters's manifesto -- I remember reading it in high school; that was the kind
of thing a certain kind of nerdy liberal-ish sophomore might do -- I'm struck by how much it
sets out the lineaments of Chait-style thinking today.
The basic orientation is announced in the opening paragraph:
We still believe in liberty and justice for all, in mercy for the afflicted and help for
the down and out. But we no longer automatically favor unions and big government or oppose
the military and big business. Indeed, in our search for solutions that work, we have to
distrust all automatic responses, liberal or conservative.
Note the disavowal of all conventional ideologies and beliefs, the affirmation of an
open-minded pragmatism guided solely by a bracing commitment to what works. It's a leitmotif of
the entire manifesto: everyone else is blinded by their emotional attachments to the ideas of
the past.
We, the heroic few, are willing to look upon reality as it is, to take up solutions from any
side of the political spectrum, to disavow anything that smacks of ideological rigidity or
partisan tribalism.
That Peters wound up embracing solutions in the piece that put him comfortably within the
camp of GOP conservatism (he even makes a sop to school prayer) never seemed to disturb his
serenity as a self-identified iconoclast. That was part of the neoliberal esprit de corps: a
self-styled philosophical promiscuity married to a fairly conventional ideological
fidelity.
Listen to how former New Republic owner Marty Peretz described that
ethos in his look-back on the New Republic of the 1970s and 1980s:
My then-wife and I bought the New Republic in 1974. I was at the time a junior faculty
member at Harvard, and I installed a former student, Michael Kinsley, as its editor. We put
out a magazine that was intellectually daring, I like to think, and politically
controversial.
We were for the Contras in Nicaragua; wary of affirmative action; for military
intervention in Bosnia, Rwanda and Darfur; alarmed about the decline of the family. The
New Republic was also an early proponent of gay rights. We were neoliberals. We were
also Zionists, and it was our defense of the Jewish state that put us outside the comfort
zone of modern progressive politics.
Except for gay rights and one or two items in that grab bag of foreign interventions, what
is Peretz saying here beyond the fact that his politics consisted mainly of supporting various
planks from the Republican Party platform? That was the intellectual daring, apparently.
Returning to that first paragraph of Peters's piece, we find the basic positions of the
neoliberal persuasion: opposition to unions and big government, support for the military and
big business.
Above all, neoliberals loathed unions, especially teachers unions. They
still do , except insofar as they're useful funding devices for the contemporary Democratic
Party.
But reading Peters, it's clear that unions were, from the very beginning, the main
target. The problems with unions were many: they protected their members' interests (no mention
of how important unions were to getting and protecting Social Security and Medicare); they
drove up costs, both in the private and the public sector; they defended lazy, incompetent
workers ("we want a government that can fire people who can't or won't do the job").
Against unions, or conventional unions, Peters held out the promise of employee
stock-ownership plans ( ESOPs ), where workers would forgo higher wages and
benefits in return for stock options and ownership. He happily pointed to the example of
Weirton Steel
:
. . . where the workers accepted a 32 percent wage cut to keep their company alive. They
will not be suckers because they will own the plant and share in the future profits their
sacrifice makes possible. It's better for a worker to keep a job by accepting $12 an hour
than to lose it by insisting on $19.
(Sadly, within two decades, Weirton Steel was dead, and with it, those future profits and
wages for which those workers had sacrificed in the early 1980s.)
But above all, Peters and other neoliberals saw unions as the instruments of the most vile
subjugation of the most downtrodden members of society:
A poor black child might have a better chance of escaping the ghetto if we fired his
incompetent middle-class teacher . . .
The urban public schools have in fact become the principal instrument of class oppression
in America, keeping the lower orders in their place while the upper class sends its children
to private schools.
And here we see how in utero how the neoliberal argument works its magic on the Left.
On the one hand, Peters showed how much the neoliberal was indebted to the Great Society
ethos of the 1960s. That ethos was a departure from the New Deal insofar as it proclaimed its
solidarity with the most desperate and the most needy.
Michael Harrington's The
Other America , for example, treated the poor not as a central part of the political
economy, as the New Deal did. The poor were superfluous to that economy: there was America,
which was middle-class and mainstream; there was the "other," which was poor and marginal. The
Great Society declared a War on Poverty, which was thought to be a project different from
managing and regulating the economy.
On the other hand, Peters showed how potent, and potently disabling, that kind of thinking
could be. In the hands of neoliberalism, it became fashionable to pit the interests of the poor
not against the power of the wealthy but against the unionized working class.
(We still see that kind of talk among today's Democrats, particularly in debates around free
trade, where it is always the unionized worker -- never the well-paid journalist or economist
or corporate CEO -- who is expected to make sacrifices on behalf of the global poor. Or
among Hillary Clinton supporters, who leverage the interests of African American voters against
the interests of white working-class voters, but never against the interests of capital.)
Teachers unions in the inner cities were ground zero of the neoliberal obsession. But it
wasn't just teachers unions. It was all unions:
In both the public and private sector, unions were seeking and getting wage increases that
had the effect of reducing or eliminating employment opportunities for people who were trying
to get a foot on the first run of the ladder.
And it wasn't just unions that were a problem. It was big-government liberalism as a
whole:
Too many liberals . . . refused to criticize their friends in the industrial unions and
the civil service who were pulling up the ladder. Thus liberalism was becoming a movement of
those who had arrived, who cared more about preserving and expanding their own gains than
about helping those in need.
That government jobs are critical for women and African Americans -- as Annie Lowrey shows in
an excellent
recent piece -- has long been known in traditional liberal and labor circles.
That it is only recently registered among journalists -- who, even when they take the long
view, focus almost exclusively, as Lowrey does, on the role of GOP governors in the aughts
rather than on these long-term shifts in Democratic Party thinking -- tells us something about
the break between liberalism and neoliberalism that Chait believes is so fanciful.
Oddly, as soon as Peters was done attacking unions and civil-service jobs for doling out
benefits to the few -- ignoring all the women and people of color who were increasingly reliant
on these instruments for their own advance -- he turned around and attacked programs like Social
Security and Medicare for doing precisely the opposite: protecting everyone.
Take Social Security. The original purpose was to protect the elderly from need. But, in
order to secure and maintain the widest possible support, benefits were paid to rich and poor
alike. The catch, of course, is that a lot of money is wasted on people who don't need it . .
.
Another way the practical and the idealistic merge in neoliberal thinking in is our
attitude toward income maintenance programs like Social Security, welfare, veterans'
pensions, and unemployment compensation. We want to eliminate duplication and apply a means
test to these programs. They would all become one insurance program against need.
As a practical matter, the country can't afford to spend money on people who don't need it -- my aunt who uses her Social Security check to go to Europe or your brother-in-law who uses
his unemployment compensation to finance a trip to Florida. And as liberal idealists, we
don't think the well-off should be getting money from these programs anyway -- every cent we
can afford should go to helping those really in need.
Kind of like Hillary Clinton criticizing Bernie Sanders for supporting free college
education for all on the grounds that Donald Trump's kids shouldn't get their education paid
for? (And let's not forget that as recently as the last presidential campaign, the Democratic
candidate was more than willing to trumpet his credentials as a cutter of Social Security and
Medicare , though thankfully he never entertained the idea of turning them into
means-tested programs.)
It's difficult to make sense of what truly drives this contradiction, whereby one liberalism
is criticized for supporting only one segment of the population while another liberalism is
criticized for supporting all segments, including the poor.
It could be as simple as the belief that government should work on behalf of only the truly
disadvantaged, leaving everyone else to the hands of the market. That that turned out to be a
disaster for the truly disadvantaged -- with no one besides themselves to speak up on behalf of
anti-poverty programs, those programs proved all too easy to eliminate, not by a Republican but
by a Democrat -- seems not to have much troubled the sleep of neoliberalism.
Indeed, in the current election, it is Hillary Clinton's support for the 1994 crime bill
rather than the 1996 welfare reform bill that has gotten the most attention, even though she
proudly stated in her memoir that she not
only supported the 1996 bill but rounded up votes for it.
Or perhaps it's that neoliberals of the Left, like their counterparts on the Right ,
simply came to believe that the market was for winners, government for losers. Only the poor
needed government; everyone else was made for capitalism.
"Risk is indeed the essence of the movement," declared Peters of his merry band of
neoliberal men, and though he had something different in mind when he said that, it's clear
from the rest of his manifesto that the risk-taking entrepreneur really was what made his and
his friends' hearts beat fastest.
Our hero is the risk-taking entrepreneur who creates new jobs and better products.
"Americans," says Bill Bradley, "have to begin to treat risk more as an opportunity and not
as a threat."
Whatever the explanation for this attitude toward government and the poor, it's clear that
we're still living in the world the neoliberals made.
When Clinton's main line of
attack against Sanders is that his proposals would increase the size of the federal
government by 40 percent, when her hawkishness
remains an unapologetic part of her campaign, when unions barely register except as an ATM for
the Democratic Party, and
Wall Street firmly declares itself to be in her camp, we can hear that opening call of
Peters -- "But we no longer automatically favor unions and big government or oppose the military
and big business" -- shorn of all awkward hesitation and convoluted formulations, articulated
instead in the forthright syntax of common sense and everyday truth.
Perhaps that is why Jonathan Chait cannot tell the difference between liberalism
and neoliberalism.
"... Since April the opposition tries to dislodge the government by instigating a regime change by force. Its protests and street fights with the police are led by violent, militarized gangs : ..."
"... This is not just by chance a similar development as was seen during the U.S. instigated color revolutions by force in Libya, Ukraine and Syria. Para-military forces hiding behind "peaceful protesters" attack police, military and civil government institutions to provoke an escalation towards a civil war. ..."
"... It is obvious that the opposition in Venezuela is heavily supported by the various regime change institutions of the United States. Some of its operatives have deep ties with DEA and the CIA U.S. media is -as usual- completely on the side of the U.S. regime change program. It has long agitated against the socialist government of Venezuela ..."
"... Venezuela is a deeply split society and the business class was consistently in the opposition. By the way of contrast, Russian oligarchs never developed "class solidarity", and Putin/Medvedev policy was to support those who support them. Sanctions on Russia have a helpful effect of restricting foreign investment opportunities. ..."
"... With hostile business class and smallish economy Venezuelans had hard time running the economy, additionally the impression is that Bolivarians just do not know much about it. ..."
"... Trump's campaign promise of ending the regime change policy was proven to be a lie, with his attitude differing little from the Neocons and Neoliberals toward that oil-rich but still impoverished nation. ..."
"... How can you possibly post a guardian link to prove your assertion about the economic mess supposedly caused by Chavez and Maduro? Don't you know that the MSM is working against the Chavismo since almost before his very birth? Venezuela is a rerun of Chile 1989 and Egypt 2013, where shortages are produced in order to make the masses angry and ready for regime change. ..."
"... is anyone handing out cookies yet?? wheres nuland when she has a role to play here? ..."
"... It is safe to say that whatever the leader of country in the US cross hairs is allegedly guilty of, the US replacement will actually be that and worse. It is not about corruption, tyranny, whatever. It is purely about subservience to US corporate wishes. ..."
"... I live is Spain and am surprised how the local media follows the Gladio line. Thought it was just the Yanks that were bonkers, but whether its Syria, Ukraine, Trump or Venezuela we're all good NATO vassals. ..."
"... The Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein that goes a long way to explain how the money boys have R2Ped all of South America over the past 50+ years....and continue to hold debt over the country's heads like all the rest of the countries of the world by now......sigh ..."
"... And across the Caribbean Sea there are two countries where populists government were successfully removed, Honduras and Haiti. From the point of view of our media lords, the less is reported from there the better. ..."
"... Constantly having to fight for your freedom is very exhausting where it seems to take a special type of people/culture to prevail--why do you think the Outlaw US Empire plans to continue to hang-out in Syraq? It's willing to bet the people don't have what it takes to ensure their freedom in the longterm. ..."
"... Whenever there is a chance that a government might do something of value for its common citizens, the US is ready to eliminate the threat. Austerity for the commons. Socialism is only for Corporations and other billionaires. ..."
"... The "Corporate Empire" will tolerate no other system. Especially one that works well for the commoners... ..."
The U.S. supports the right-wing opposition in Venezuela against the socialist government of President
Maduro. Since April the opposition tries to dislodge the government by instigating a regime change
by force. Its protests and street fights with the police are led by
violent, militarized gangs :
Venezuela's ongoing street protests are increasingly looking like outright warfare. As security
forces shoot rubber bullets, tear-gas canisters and sometimes live rounds at the churning crowds,
increasingly restive mobs are responding with lethal slingshots, homemade mortars and Molotov
cocktails.
This week, seven National Guard members were injured in Caracas when a roadside bomb exploded
as they drove by on motorcycles.
Leading the opposition shock-troops are loose-knit groups of young men and women that have
names like The Templars, The Warriors and The Arcadias. Collectively, they're known as the Chamos
de la Resistencia or, roughly, the Youth Resistance.
This is not just by chance a similar development as was seen during the U.S. instigated
color revolutions by force in Libya, Ukraine and Syria. Para-military forces hiding behind "peaceful
protesters" attack police, military and civil government institutions to provoke an escalation towards
a civil war. Last week the opposition in Venezuela
announced that today is the "zero day" for another violent coup attempt against President Maduro:
The fugitive police pilot who allegedly stole a helicopter and used it to attack Venezuela's Supreme
Court has appeared at an opposition rally in the capital, Caracas, attendees tell CNN.
Oscar Perez, an officer in the country's investigative police force, addressed the gathering,
urging the opposition to continue protesting.
...
" A general walkout for July 18, walkout with no return . The zero-hour will start on Tuesday.
The referendum we'll do it, with dignity, we'll be in the street defending the people."
Venezuelan opposition leaders have called for their supporters to escalate street protests and
support a 24-hour national strike later this week after more than 7.1 million people rejected
a government plan to rewrite the constitution.
...
A coalition of some 20 opposition parties assembled in its headquarters Monday to call for a "zero
hour" campaign of civil disobedience in the two weeks leading to the government vote.
On Sunday the opposition held a private poll in which less people attended than the opposition
had hoped for. No results but the number of attendees was announced:
The opposition released only turnout numbers Sunday night, not tallies of responses to those questions,
although virtually all who voted were believed to have answered "yes" to the central rejection
of the constitutional rewrite.
There are some 19 million registered voters in Venezuela. A seven million turnout for a private
poll, if real, is significant but neither decisive nor relevant. The hiding of the results lets one
assume that the answers to the poll questions were not in favor of the opposition's plan.
It is difficult to ascertain what the real opinion of people in Venezuela is. Polls in the country
are traditionally skewed. Maduro's economic polices, restricted by falling oil prices, sabotage by
rich im- and exporters and U.S. sanction, was not successful. But the 2015 National Assembly vote
won by the opposition was more a protest vote against the economic problems than a vote for the opposition's
vague program .
It is obvious that the opposition in Venezuela is heavily supported by the various regime
change institutions of the United States. Some of its operatives have deep ties
with DEA and the CIA
U.S. media is -as usual- completely on the side of the U.S. regime change program. It has long
agitated against the socialist government of Venezuela.
An official
Trump statement on Venezuela released yesterday is noticeable for its lack of facts:
Yesterday, the Venezuelan people again made clear that they stand for democracy, freedom, and
rule of law. Yet their strong and courageous actions continue to be ignored by a bad leader who
dreams of becoming a dictator.
The United States will not stand by as Venezuela crumbles. If the Maduro regime imposes its
Constituent Assembly on July 30, the United States will take strong and swift economic actions.
Would Trump write a similar statement about the will of the "American people" if Democrats held
a private poll against him with an assured multi-million strong turnout?
The Maduro government has called for a July 30 vote to elect members of an upcoming constitutional
assembly. There is nothing "imposed" with that. The opposition will try to sew chaos in the streets
up to that date and likely has planned for some culmination point of action.
The government has so far reacted passively to the violent protests. The police protects some
government buildings and removes some road blocking barricades. But no arrest wave or more assertiveness
for government control has been ordered. One wonders at what point such measures will become inevitable.
Two of the problems with this latest Gene Sharp-inspired, CIA & State Dept-supported 'non-violent'
regime change plot are:
1. It's worked like a dream umpteen times in the past thanks to the
complicity and outright lies of the Western MSM.
2. If it follows the tr-r-aditional Gene Sharp Formula then Day Zero will be marked by the
introduction of the CIA's Hired Guns to the 'non-violent' nature of the protests to date. The
Western MSM will dutifully exaggerate the scope and scale of the bloodshed and blame it on Maduro.
And ppl in the West will dutifully, and gullibly, agree that the best way to help Venezuelans
is to impose an AmeriKKKan Military Solution aimed at destroying Venezuela's civilian infrastructure
and thereby creating a Refugee Crisis in Venezuela and its neighbors.
Venezuelan "socialists" call themselves Bolivarians and in terms of economic policies they could
be classified as social democrats, they changed the distribution of the national income using
oil revenue. One can appreciate Russian economic policies by comparing with Venezuela (or Nigeria?).
Venezuela is a deeply split society and the business class was consistently in the opposition.
By the way of contrast, Russian oligarchs never developed "class solidarity", and Putin/Medvedev
policy was to support those who support them. Sanctions on Russia have a helpful effect of restricting
foreign investment opportunities. Mildly corrupt capitalist oligarchy can function OK if
the capitalists invest back at home -- China is the premier example. Unbridled kleptocracy is
combined with capital flight that hollows the economy, I would put Nigeria and Angola as premier
examples, one could add Egypt and Ukraine.
With hostile business class and smallish economy Venezuelans had hard time running the
economy, additionally the impression is that Bolivarians just do not know much about it.
Right now, I would not criticize "the meek actions of Maduro". Avoiding or minimizing bloodshed
is a decent thing to do in itself. Additionally, a measured reaction can be politically astute,
this is a democracy after all, the times are hard, the government has to make a case that the
opposition is even worse, and without military or police rebellion they will weather the crisis
and become stronger.
The Outlaw US Empire has meddled in Venezuelan politics for decades, and its actions are at
the root of today's problems. Chavez made a very large mistake after the 2002 coup attempt failed
-- he failed to prosecute its leaders. That failure also contributes mightily to today's problems,
but it was -- again -- brought about at the instigation of the Outlaw US Empire.
Trump's campaign promise of ending the regime change policy was proven to be a lie, with
his attitude differing little from the Neocons and Neoliberals toward that oil-rich but still
impoverished nation. So far, the Chavistas have managed to stem the counter-revolutionary
tide financed by the Outlaw US Empire and its vassals, for the so-called opposition is very much
in the minority, which is why its opted for violence as it cannot win legitimately.
Wait, so the guy who took a helicopter & opened fire on a Courthouse is a free man and addressing
crowds? Unbelievable. It's no wonder these Yank puppets are running riot and causing mayhem. Mind
you, the Western media will immediately say Maduro is "violently crushing pro-democracy activists"
as soon as he orders the police to go in hard, so he's between a rock and a hard place. As we
saw in Ukraine though (Syria too), if you don't crush these fascists quickly, you are just digging
yourself into a deeper hole.
How can you possibly post a guardian link to prove your assertion
about the economic mess supposedly caused by Chavez and Maduro? Don't you know that the MSM is
working against the Chavismo since almost before his very birth? Venezuela is a rerun of Chile
1989 and Egypt 2013, where shortages are produced in order to make the masses angry and ready
for regime change.
Yes, as Petras stated again and again Chavez didn't change the fundamentals of the Venezuelan
society. He probably was to shy to. The Venezuelan Sucker-Class proved again and again to have
an equal fascistic mindset as their 'brothers' in Argentina and Chile. If they succeed there will
be a mass slaughter. It will work out like in the Philippines where the president kills scores
of people every day and nobody gives a damn.
It is safe to say that whatever the leader of country in the US cross hairs is allegedly guilty
of, the US replacement will actually be that and worse. It is not about corruption, tyranny, whatever.
It is purely about subservience to US corporate wishes.
The Venezulean chief economist states Venezuela's problems arise from sabotage, not socialism.
I live is Spain and am surprised how the local media follows the Gladio line. Thought it
was just the Yanks that were bonkers, but whether its Syria, Ukraine, Trump or Venezuela we're
all good NATO vassals.
Remember hearing the same thoughts here on MoA from a German reader about how there seemed
to be more "diversity" of thought in American blogs/media than in his home country.
It goes to show you: we're all Occupied Territories.
I haven't read a shout out for The Shock Doctrine by Naomi Klein that goes a long way to explain
how the money boys have R2Ped all of South America over the past 50+ years....and continue to
hold debt over the country's heads like all the rest of the countries of the world by now......sigh
And to those that write that Chavez or Maduro should have just defeated the oligarchy, show
me a country that has done so.....the China/Russia axis may be doing so but it is not clear yet.
We have an outdated and may kill us form of social structure that has the money boys and their
families in charge for centuries resulting in the God of Mammon and riches for a few class system
we live in. I hope humanity stands up and says to itself it can do better and then makes it happen.......we
have the skills I believe but only lack the common vision and motivation.
The US has removed many democratically-elected leaders by force. Whenever there is a chance that
a government might do something of value for its common citizens, the US is ready to eliminate
the threat. Austerity for the commons. Socialism is only for Corporations and other billionaires.
Expenses and Costs for Billionaires are socialized, while profits are privatized. Pick yourselves
up by your own bootstraps and dream the American Dream. /s
While Brazil shares a long border with Venezuela, it is actually rather remote from regions with
significant population. The only border that crosses reasonably populated areas is with Colombia,
which according to Economists Intelligence Unit seems a shining example of democracy, compared
with authoritarian Venezuela. Colombia is also the world leader in killing journalists and issuing
credible death threats to journalists, issuing life insurance to labor organizers also seems a
loosing line of business over there.
And across the Caribbean Sea there are two countries where populists government were successfully
removed, Honduras and Haiti. From the point of view of our media lords, the less is reported from
there the better.
What's happening now is close to a re-run of 2001-2004 antics, albeit using somewhat different
tactics similar to those of the Arab Spring and Ukrainian Maidan. The "opposition" consists of
the same socio-economic players from 15 years earlier--essentially the younger generation brainwashed
by opposition media and parental indoctrination.
If you take the time, you'll note all the rioting
takes place in middle/upper middle-class neighborhoods--never in the many slums whose residents
benefited from the uplifting policies instituted by Chavez et al.
What's waning is the revolutionary
solidarity and zeal of the Chavistas from the early 2000s against the fact that the counter-revolutionary
forces have very deep resources and are willing to wait since their bodies aren't actually on
the line. Constantly having to fight for your freedom is very exhausting where it seems to take
a special type of people/culture to prevail--why do you think the Outlaw US Empire plans to continue
to hang-out in Syraq? It's willing to bet the people don't have what it takes to ensure their
freedom in the longterm.
There are two nations where the forces of Reaction dwell--The Outlaw US Empire and its vassal
the UK. France could be included, but it isn't nearly as important or have the same clout. For
Peace to ever be established on this planet, the forces of Reaction must be euthanized--eradicated--as
they are a pestilence far worse than any insect or rodent.
" Whenever there is a chance that a government might do something of value for its
common citizens, the US is ready to eliminate the threat. Austerity for the commons. Socialism
is only for Corporations and other billionaires."
Thanks for that ff. Absolute truth is always worth repeating.
The "Corporate Empire" will tolerate no other system. Especially one that works well for the
commoners...
"... This piece sounds like the survival of the fittest in vogue during GE's CEO Jack Welch days. I always add something to the nietzschean sentence. What does not kill you will make you stronger or will physically and mentally disable you for life. What is the what? The what can be the being pushed to play the most distasteful and absurd capitalist games. A hierarchical screwing! ..."
"... We rely on groups to support each other, because individually it is very hard to survive through chaos. That's the reason we are herd or pack animals, and our associations are know as society. ..."
"... When Maggott Thatcher stated 'there is no such thing as society." she was denying our basic survival mechanism to promote her own narrow, neoliberal, selfish ends. ..."
"... The Master and His Emissary ..."
"... The Minimalist Program ..."
"... brain functions across time and under myriad circumstances to generate behaviors ..."
"... i was disappointed to find he simply dove deeper into the proposition that our behavior is determined by our genes. Homo sapiens's prime adaptation is culture, which allows learned behaviors in individuals to be tranformed into adaptations. Our genes do not determine our behavior. We do. And we determine the behavior of the next generation by our choices of what cultural norms to propagate. ..."
"... As Bill Black has pointed out numerous times, the people who brought on the financial collapse were acting completely rationally. They crashed their own corporations not out of irrationality. They did it because they were trying to make themselves rich, and they didn't give a damn about the corporations they were looting in the process. ..."
"... The writer himself should have spent more time focusing on that great white shark because he's failed to notice he's given renewed life to social darwinism. These "highly evolved" institutions he talks about – like banks and hedge funds – are, in fact, keenly honed predators. Which is odd. An advanced social species like ours isn't supposed to prey on other members. His competition model involves people essentially eating other people. He's failed to note any distinction between inter-species and intra-species competition. ..."
diptherio, that was my thought also as I read more and more rapidly
down the article. Fraud seems to have disappeared from financial
discussions altogether.
Convenient is putting it mildly. About 2/3 of the way through I was
waiting for a reference to Keynes, or Minsky, or Marx or -- and this is
from my reading of Geoffrey Ingham's "The Nature of Money" -- Weber but
instead found him coasting into some general behavioral precepts before
landing without reference to anyone. It's like we're witnessing Spinoza
concoct a system, rather than an economist talk about the importance of
dropping models that have been under attack, and via arguments that are
much more specific, for decades.
I think this model handles fraud a lot better than the EMT does. If
you accept that individuals make decisions based on a collection of
subjective heuristics unique to that individual (which may not bear more
than an indirect relationship to rationality) then you need to consider
the possibility that those heuristics might be manipulated by an outside
party for the purpose of separating said individual from their cash.
Which would cover a wide range of behaviours, from fraud to lesser
examples like marketing (which is also not modeled by the EMT).
On a first impression it seems to be at least approximately consistent
with reality and how people behave, which puts it ahead of EMT and most
modern economic theory right off the bat, but it looks like more work is
needed to get it to a point where it becomes a developed model capable of
making falsifiable predictions.
I also take exception to the definition of 'rationality' as the
solution to an optimization problem based on a universal utility function
in which everything can be measured by a single number and is directly
comparable to everything else. To the extent this article uses the term,
it seems to be adopting the standard utility maximization definition,
which means it's more of a minor heresy than a completely new theory.
So adaptive markets are pretty much the same as rational ones, just
taking a slightly more roundabout route to those optimal outcomes?
Never been taken with the invocation of evolution outside biology. A lot
of bacteria get killed before they find a way round a decent antibiotic.
Evolution at the speed of thought
has me quite baffled.
This piece sounds like the survival of the fittest in vogue during
GE's CEO Jack Welch days. I always add something to the nietzschean
sentence. What does not kill you will make you stronger or will
physically and mentally disable you for life. What is the what? The what
can be the being pushed to play the most distasteful and absurd
capitalist games. A hierarchical screwing!
OK I lay my cards on the table as someone who came from economics and
ended up following the psychologists but this sounds like a belated attempt
to reconcile a bunch of findings from experimental economics that were long
known in psychology And which lay out an unduly long list of assumptions in
an attempt to keep some links with economics when the psychologists
recognised back in 1960 that just two assumptions were needed – giving the
flexibility required to explain all sorts of heuristics.
We've seen how biofeedback measurements can be used to study
behavior, We know that human behavior, both the rational and the seemingly
irrational ,
Nonlinear Feedback generates Chaos .
As a result of this feedback As long as those challenges remain
stable over time, their heuristics will eventually adapt to yield
approximately optimal solutions to those challenges.
Nonlinear feedback – Chaos
Assumption = As long as these challenges remain stable .
Chaos removes any possibility of stability.
Good article, but the conclusion is hopeless, because the author is
seeking some assurance of stability where there is none.
Now to the social part of the thought experiment:
We rely on groups to support each other, because individually it is very
hard to survive through chaos. That's the reason we are herd or pack
animals, and our associations are know as society.
When Maggott Thatcher stated 'there is no such thing as society." she was
denying our basic survival mechanism to promote her own narrow, neoliberal,
selfish ends.
I agree with your comment Synoia but I do have a small quibble with
where you say Chaos removes any possibility of stability. Chaos in
markets can lead to financial ruin, which is a form of stability. Think
bank runs. Sudden, unpredictable changes in the market could cause
investors to get cold feet and pull out there money en masse. Once my
bank runs out of money I can predict with reasonable certainty that if I
didn't get my money out in time, I ain't getting it back (well ok, maybe
if I was too big to fail things would be different ). Regardless, you are
right, the author isn't doing his theory any justice in assuming
"challenges remain stable over time".
Financial markets are a product of human evolution, and follow
biological laws instead. The same basic principles of mutation,
competition, and natural selection that determine the life history of a
herd of antelope also apply to the banking industry, albeit with somewhat
different population dynamics.
It's time Lefties admit that the conservatives are right about one thing:
there is such a thing as "human nature." Traditional humanism with its roots
in religion prefers to see us as moral beings who must choose between good
and evil using our "free will." But it's possible that what is really
happening is that our sometimes overpowering instincts are warring with our
reason. Where the conservatives get it wrong is by putting all the emphasis
on the former–the latter not so much.
I have a friend who dislikes dogs and complains about people
anthropomorphizing their pets. My reply is that what motivates animal lovers
is not so much that they are like us but that we are like them. This
recognition–that we are a part of nature–may be a way out of the planet's
looming disaster. Good to see economists taking up a theory that admits
reality.
As a psychologist, when I look at economics (which is often), I see a few
dangerous linear assumptions elaborated in complex calculus trying to apply
LISREL or some other tool to make sense of past economic behavior which is
then projected forward just in time to be proven incorrect – much of the
time.
A theory is no use if it cannot be shown to predict better than what we
have already. We have theories in behavioral science like chaos and
complexity which seem to capture irrationality to some extent. We also have
analytic strategies that do not depend on linear equations – dynamical
models. Such dynamic models have been shown to predict all sorts of
behaviors in the animal world, and work by folks like Josh Epstein has shown
it works for people too.
Maybe thinking more dynamically is key to better understanding – like why
Bitcoins are worth anything more than a bag of Legos – at least Legos are
tangible.
Homo sapiens isn't Homo economicus. Humans have a full set of values,
some of which conflict with straight up monetary gains.
There is some level of honest behavior that is most profitable to a
society. Brazil and the U.S. have had similar level of land and natural
resources but very different outcomes. Corruption is the indicator that
determines which society did better.
Your statement: "Homo sapiens isn't Homo economicus" is the crux of
the issue. This is why so much of modern economic theory is bunk. The
main hypothesis is incorrect. My training is in physics so what we used
to say to denigrate a theory that was based on bad assumptions was
"assume a spherical cow". The economics profession has been harming the
common people with their "spherical cows" for decades but it's all good
because the people Carlin called the real owners have done nicely. At
least until now. I think I'm beginning to here the distant sound of
tumbrils rolling toward the homes of the real owners.
Isn't "Assume a can-opener" or something like that the punch line
for the joke about some guys starving on a desert island when a can of
stew washes up on the beach.
Found it!:
[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assume_a_can_opener]
"There is a story that has been going around about a physicist, a
chemist, and an economist who were stranded on a desert island with no
implements and a can of food. The physicist and the chemist each
devised an ingenious mechanism for getting the can open; the economist
merely said, "Assume we have a can opener"
yeah I always loved that joke. It ties in with the comments
above made by Tomonthebeach and edr. The psychological stuff I deal
with is careful to stay within the confines of the problem we are
trying to solve, rather than assume some global utility function
underpinned by homo economicus (and which therefore borders on
religion).
Synoia also made a great comment regarding dynamics . if I'd
stayed in academia the next project I'd have been trying to address
was using choice model parameters as "starting values" to implement
agent based models alas that's something I never got to
investigate and that I hope others will.
Reminds me of another joke -- mechanical engineering has made
great progress elaborating the mathematics for a chair with zero
legs and for chairs with one and two legs. There is a lot of
excitement in recent developments in the study of chairs with
three legs but deep mysteries remain in efforts to understand
the mathematics of chairs with more than three legs.
Ayn Rand's Objectivism was just a mating strategy in that it provided
justification for her to poach husbands from heiresses and slap the buns on
dreamboat Alan Greenspan. [Have you read my book? Let's erect that
skyscraper.–Ayn] The economy is just a vehicle for the human genomes of
economists to replicate.
Survival to what? For the most part to a second nature world which is a
cultural construction.
Adaptation to environment, as if the latter had been thrown to us by the
gods of nature or, to give you a more scientific tang, it had been formed by
natural evolutionary forces. Undoubtedly, the most powerful agents through
the institutions they shape and control have a lot to do on how thick is the
air we breath and how heavy is the weight of the world we carry on our
backs. This is not to say that they are not to some degree obliged to their
inheritance and creations or that others can not have any saying, influence
or acquiescence to them.
Adaptations to changes, as if the changes were the inevitable product of
autopiloted supra-objective structures for agents without agents and such
changes-now indeed- brought about the corollary of adaptation.
I still prefer Iain McGilchrist's
The Master and His Emissary
,
for its neurological detail. It covers the same scope as this post, yet also
says some things.
Noam Chomsky was careful to label his latest linguistic approach
The
Minimalist
Program
, because it is not testable by
hypotheses. It is a shame that this point of rigor was lost on his MIT
colleges at the Sloan School.
Whatever. Adaptive Market? Fine. Never admit to the command economy.
Thank you for the reference to Chomsky's recent books on linguistics.
But a quibble -- did Chomsky label his linguistic approach as a 'Program'
because it doesn't generate testable hypotheses? I haven't read "The
Minimalist Program" yet but would think he used the label 'Program' to
indicate he was proposing a broad framework for new research in
linguistics and its implications for human cognition. I believe Chomsky
is presenting the case for his life's work and proposing paths for its
continuation.
The MP is an approach to the subject of linguistics and language.
While it encapsulates theoretical elements, an approach isn't
provable. Linguistics is goofy because it is within the intersection
of mathematics and biology, fields which expose themselves to
different levels of rigor.
The sloppy five key principles of the singular Adaptive Market
Hypothesis are teasing my
brain functions across time and under
myriad circumstances to generate behaviors
other than to retch.
They read like a sell sheet.
Thank you very much! it's too late at night to follow Chomsky's
video but I put it on my list for tomorrow afternoon. I was
surprised by how the price for Chomsky's book "The Minimalist
Program" cost. The video will help me decide whether to spring for
the book now or watch for a used copy..
As for the post -- I am not sure why we were presented with it.
It seems like some warmed over rancid tripe.
Did you mean to reference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oq5lMTKJiqE
This is titled "The minimalist program and language acqusition". I
have a copy of "What kind of Creatures are We?" and I've watched
several of his videos derivative from his Dewey Lectures.
5. Survival is the ultimate force driving competition, innovation, and
adaptation.
Nope.
This is an old view of evolution. Evolution has evolved more than that.
Survival is just one of the forces. I would argue that randomness is a very
powerful force.
This seems a transparent effort by (some) economists to substitute one
ridiculous paradigm with another. I guess the title says it all.
This was the most hilarious part:
On one side of the divide were the free market economists, who believe
that we are all economically rational adults, governed by the law of
supply and demand. On the other side were the behavioral economists, who
believe that we are all irrational animals, driven by fear and greed like
so many other species of mammals.
So not only is the neoclassical paradigm NOT driven by greed but
apparently it (rational maximization) is the exact opposite! Who knew?
yeah it's why people like me are regarded as traitors . if you
disagree with both sides you simply double your enemies (there is a Terry
Pratchett point in there) ..
it's simply a case of horses for courses in certain circumstances yes
a traditional individual maximisation function works in others the
maximand is some societal one. You can use the same simple psychological
theory of prediction but you have to recognise what the intrinsic
"underlying scale of value" is. The psychologists have known since 1927
that choices can be "irrational" according to neoclassical economics. By
understanding how people make errors they have been streets ahead (e.g.
proving something in 1960 that an economist published in 1974 and got a
"nobel" prize for)
Is this post representative of the deep thought available from the Sloan
School? Drag in some evolution and discussions of our origins as troglodytes -- make a quick review of behavioral theories of the market -- throw in some
Darwin and voilà -- "adaptive markets". If I give up on trying to derive a
theory for how the market operates from a theory for how the individuals in
that market operate why do I care about the rational economic man or the
adaptive man evolving in the jungles of the market. Perhaps I might question
some of the other assumptions used to construct my model of the market and
look more closely at some of the fraud and some of the smarmy trading
practices[as many other commenters noted].
Does the new book by the author of this post explain how to develop the
heuristics which will eventually adapt to yield approximately optimal
solutions -- so some quants can program my adaptive trader computer program?
[Footnote: "adaptive" is cool also for sounding like "adaptive systems" a
systems approach for solving problems like noise cancellation.]
If it takes a theory to beat a theory, this author needs to look under
more rocks. This theory isn't new. Its former iteration was faith healing
(to pray harder). The Adaptive Markets Hypothesis iteration is to flail and
suffocate on the beach longer. I'll give it points though for cleverly
tucking old articles of faith into a pocket protector.
Nice when you don't even have to revise the textbooks to accommodate the
new paradigm. I can already hear the calls for deregulation so that markets
can better adapt.
About a third through I thought I knew where he was going: economic
behavior is predicated on cultural norms, it appears to give rise to laws
where those norms are stable across time, but recent rapid shifts in norms
have created behaviors which are not anticipated by the laws, exposing the
fallacy of calling them laws. Example: short term profit seeking to the
exclusion of all else was not culturally allowed before, but now it is. This
leads to different market behavior. Prior observers were not wrong about the
laws they pronounced. The laws simply relied on moral restraints that were
as ubiquitous, and thus as hidden, as water is to a fish.
Instead, i was disappointed to find he simply dove deeper into the
proposition that our behavior is determined by our genes. Homo sapiens's
prime adaptation is culture, which allows learned behaviors in individuals
to be tranformed into adaptations. Our genes do not determine our behavior.
We do. And we determine the behavior of the next generation by our choices
of what cultural norms to propagate.
Yeah, if he had specified culture to be what most would call
sub-cultures, like the 1%, the professional class, the blue-collar group,
etc., then he would have a broad based, but consistent actions, division
of an economy. But that idea is high heresy; there is not a 'society',
there is only lone individuals acting alone. Quite the crock of BS.
PS. in the interest of 'efficiency' (instead of creating a second
posting, I'll piggyback here), let me say these replys are one reason why
I support this site: After reading the first 3 paragraphs and skimming
his section headers, I recognized the storyline. So I dived into the
replies and learned what was worth learning. Thanks guys, you saved my
blood pressure.
This post could be a Thomas Friedman writing contest winner!
"We've travelled millions of years into our past, looked deep inside the
human brain, and explored the cutting edge of current scientific theories. ,
, , We're neither entirely rational nor entirely irrational, hence neither
the rationalists nor the behavioralists are completely convincing. We need a
new narrative for how markets work, and now have enough pieces of the puzzle
to start putting it all together."
That's not quite at Mr. Friedman's level of mixed metaphorical mayhem . .
. But it's close!
It makes me think of FANTASTIC VOYAGE with Racquel Welch and Donald
Pleasance, when scientists were shrunk to microscopic size and then rode
around inside a human body's ciruclatory system in incredibly small
submarine that lookd like a space ship. Then there was trouble and Donald
Pleasance was sucked up head first into the white blood cell. I'm not making
this up! You can Youtube it and see.
It may be that there's white blood cell like things we don't have the
scientific equipment to see that actually cause booms and busts, but if we
could see them through things like telescopes or time machine space ships
like the Post sort of says, then you could see how they suck people up into
them. This really is cutting edge financial science.
Also, if somebody has never been an animal, then how do they know animals
are driven by fear and greed, That made me stop and think, just at the end
of the first paragraph! That seems like an extraordinary claim to make.
Maybe somebody can be injected with Zebra genes and let loose in Tanzania in
some national park for a few weeks until the genes wash out of their system.
Then they can report back. But until that time, it's only speculation.
As Bill Black has pointed out numerous times, the people who brought on
the financial collapse were acting completely rationally. They crashed their
own corporations not out of irrationality. They did it because they were
trying to make themselves rich, and they didn't give a damn about the
corporations they were looting in the process.
As others have noted, the absence of fraud in this model is telling.
The writer himself should have spent more time focusing on that great
white shark because he's failed to notice he's given renewed life to social
darwinism. These "highly evolved" institutions he talks about – like banks
and hedge funds – are, in fact, keenly honed predators. Which is odd. An
advanced social species like ours isn't supposed to prey on other members.
His competition model involves people essentially eating other people. He's
failed to note any distinction between inter-species and intra-species
competition.
The gene selection he invokes is far more complicated. We live in
societies whose rules determines winners and losers. What, in essense, is
this competition best optimizing? Does "survival" in this system mean
optimizing each individual's potential? What is it we want "economic
survival" to mean? He talks about environmental adaptation but leaves out
the fact we define our own environment. There's no way to efface politics.
"... Main image: Maxian/Getty/iStockphoto/Guardian Design ..."
"... This is an edited extract from Twilight of the Money Gods: Economics as a Religion and How it all Went Wrong by John Rapley, published by Simon & Schuster on 13 July at £20. To order a copy for £17, go to ..."
"... bookshop.theguardian.com ..."
"... or call 0330 333 6846. Free UK p&p over £10, online orders only. Phone orders min p&p of £1.99. ..."
Tuesday 11 July 2017
01.00 EDT
Last modified on Tuesday 11 July 2017
11.20 EDT
A
lthough
Britain has an established church, few of us today pay it much mind. We follow an
even more powerful religion, around which we have oriented our lives: economics.
Think about it.
Economics
offers a comprehensive doctrine with a moral code promising
adherents salvation in this world; an ideology so compelling that the faithful
remake whole societies to conform to its demands. It has its gnostics, mystics and
magicians who conjure money out of thin air, using spells such as "derivative" or
"structured investment vehicle". And, like the old religions it has displaced, it
has its prophets, reformists, moralists and above all, its high priests who uphold
orthodoxy in the face of heresy.
Over time, successive economists slid into the
role we had removed from the churchmen: giving us guidance on how to reach a
promised land of material abundance and endless contentment. For a long time, they
seemed to deliver on that promise, succeeding in a way few other religions had
ever done, our incomes rising thousands of times over and delivering a cornucopia
bursting with new inventions, cures and delights.
This was our heaven, and richly did we reward the economic priesthood, with
status, wealth and power to shape our societies according to their vision. At the
end of the 20th century, amid an economic boom that saw the western economies
become richer than humanity had ever known, economics seemed to have conquered the
globe. With nearly every country on the planet adhering to the same free-market
playbook, and with university students flocking to do degrees in the subject,
economics seemed to be attaining the goal that had eluded every other religious
doctrine in history: converting the entire planet to its creed.
Yet if history teaches anything, it's that whenever economists feel certain
that they have found the holy grail of endless peace and prosperity,
the end of the present regime is nigh.
On the eve of
the 1929 Wall Street crash
, the American economist Irving Fisher advised
people to go out and buy shares; in the 1960s, Keynesian economists said there
would never be another recession because they had perfected the tools of demand
management.
The 2008 crash was no different. Five years earlier, on 4 January 2003, the
Nobel laureate Robert Lucas had delivered a triumphal presidential address to the
American Economics Association. Reminding his colleagues that macroeconomics had
been born in the depression precisely to try to prevent another such disaster ever
recurring, he declared that he and his colleagues had reached their own end of
history: "Macroeconomics in this original sense has succeeded," he instructed the
conclave. "Its central problem of depression prevention has been solved."
No sooner do we persuade ourselves that the economic priesthood has finally
broken the old curse than it comes back to haunt us all: pride always goes before
a fall. Since the crash of 2008, most of us have watched our living standards
decline. Meanwhile, the priesthood seemed to withdraw to the cloisters, bickering
over who got it wrong. Not surprisingly, our faith in the "experts" has
dissipated.
Hubris, never a particularly good thing, can be especially dangerous in
economics, because its scholars don't just observe the laws of nature; they help
make them. If the government, guided by its priesthood, changes the
incentive-structure of society to align with the assumption that people behave
selfishly, for instance, then lo and behold, people will start to do just that.
They are rewarded for doing so and penalised for doing otherwise. If you are
educated to believe greed is good, then you will be more likely to live
accordingly.
The hubris in economics came not from a moral failing among economists, but
from a false conviction: the belief that theirs was a science. It neither is nor
can be one, and has always operated more like a church. You just have to look at
its history to realise that.
T
he American
Economic Association,
to which Robert
Lucas gave his address, was created in 1885, just when economics was starting to
define itself as a distinct discipline. At its first meeting, the association's
founders proposed a platform that declared: "The conflict of labour and capital
has brought to the front a vast number of social problems whose solution is
impossible without the united efforts of church, state and science." It would be a
long path from that beginning to the market evangelism of recent decades.
Yet even at that time, such social activism provoked controversy. One of the
AEA's founders, Henry Carter Adams, subsequently delivered an address at Cornell
University in which he defended free speech for radicals and accused
industrialists of stoking xenophobia to distract workers from their mistreatment.
Unknown to him, the New York lumber king and Cornell benefactor Henry Sage was in
the audience. As soon as the lecture was done, Sage stormed into the university
president's office and insisted: "This man must go; he is sapping the foundations
of our society." When Adams's tenure was subsequently blocked, he agreed to
moderate his views. Accordingly, the final draft of the AEA platform expunged the
reference to laissez-faire economics as being "unsafe in politics and unsound in
morals".
So was set a pattern that has persisted to this day. Powerful political
interests – which historically have included not only rich industrialists, but
electorates as well – helped to shape the canon of economics, which was then
enforced by its scholarly community.
Once a principle is established as orthodox, its observance is enforced in much
the same way that a religious doctrine maintains its integrity: by repressing or
simply eschewing heresies. In Purity and Danger,
the anthropologist Mary Douglas
observed the way taboos functioned to help
humans impose order on a seemingly disordered, chaotic world. The premises of
conventional economics haven't functioned all that differently. Robert Lucas once
noted approvingly that by the late 20th century, economics had so effectively
purged itself of Keynesianism that "the audience start(ed) to whisper and giggle
to one another" when anyone expressed a Keynesian idea at a seminar. Such
responses served to remind practitioners of the taboos of economics: a gentle
nudge to a young academic that such shibboleths might not sound so good before a
tenure committee. This preoccupation with order and coherence may be less a
function of the method than of its practitioners. Studies of personality traits
common to various disciplines have discovered that economics, like engineering,
tends to attract people with an unusually strong preference for order, and a
distaste for ambiguity.
The irony is that, in its determination to make itself a science that can reach
hard and fast conclusions, economics has had to dispense with scientific method at
times. For starters, it rests on a set of premises about the world not as it is,
but as economists would like it to be. Just as any religious service includes a
profession of faith, membership in the priesthood of economics entails certain
core convictions about human nature. Among other things, most economists believe
that we humans are self-interested, rational, essentially individualistic, and
prefer more money to less. These articles of faith are taken as self-evident. Back
in the 1930s, the great economist Lionel Robbins described his profession in a way
that has stood ever since as a cardinal rule for millions of economists. The
field's basic premises came from "deduction from simple assumptions reflecting
very elementary facts of general experience" and as such were "as universal as the
laws of mathematics or mechanics, and as little capable of 'suspension'".
Deducing laws from premises deemed eternal and beyond question is a
time-honoured method. For thousands of years, monks in medieval monasteries built
a vast corpus of scholarship doing just that, using a method perfected by Thomas
Aquinas known as scholasticism. However, this is not the method used by
scientists, who tend to require assumptions to be tested empirically before a
theory can be built out of them.
But, economists will maintain, this is precisely what they themselves do – what
sets them apart from the monks is that they must still test their hypotheses
against the evidence. Well, yes, but this statement is actually more problematic
than many mainstream economists may realise. Physicists resolve their debates by
looking at the data, upon which they by and large agree. The data used by
economists, however, is much more disputed. When, for example, Robert Lucas
insisted that Eugene Fama's efficient-markets hypothesis – which maintains that
since a free market collates all available information to traders, the prices it
yields can never be wrong – held true despite "a flood of criticism", he did so
with as much conviction and supporting evidence as his fellow economist Robert
Shiller had mustered in rejecting the hypothesis. When the Swedish central bank
had to decide who would win the 2013 Nobel prize in economics, it was torn between
Shiller's claim that markets frequently got the price wrong and Fama's insistence
that markets always got the price right. Thus it opted to split the difference and
gave both men the medal
– a bit of Solomonic wisdom that would have elicited
howls of laughter had it been a science prize. In economic theory, very often, you
believe what you want to believe – and as with any act of faith, your choice of
heads or tails will as likely reflect sentimental predisposition as scientific
assessment.
It's no mystery why the data used by economists and other social scientists so
rarely throws up incontestable answers: it is
human
data. Unlike people,
subatomic particles don't lie on opinion surveys or change their minds about
things. Mindful of that difference, at his own presidential address to the
American Economic Association nearly a half-century ago, another Nobel laureate,
Wassily Leontief, struck a modest tone. He reminded his audience that the data
used by economists differed greatly from that used by physicists or biologists.
For the latter, he cautioned, "the magnitude of most parameters is practically
constant", whereas the observations in economics were constantly changing. Data
sets had to be regularly updated to remain useful. Some data was just simply bad.
Collecting and analysing the data requires civil servants with a high degree of
skill and a good deal of time, which less economically developed countries may not
have in abundance. So, for example, in 2010 alone, Ghana's government – which
probably has one of the better data-gathering capacities in Africa –
recalculated its economic output by 60%
. Testing your hypothesis before and
after that kind of revision would lead to entirely different results.
Leontief wanted economists to spend more time getting to know their data, and
less time in mathematical modelling. However, as he ruefully admitted, the trend
was already going in the opposite direction. Today, the economist who wanders into
a village to get a deeper sense of what the data reveals is a rare creature. Once
an economic model is ready to be tested, number-crunching ends up being done
largely at computers plugged into large databases. It's not a method that fully
satisfies a sceptic. For, just as you can find a quotation in the Bible that will
justify almost any behaviour, you can find human data to support almost any
statement you want to make about the way the world works.
That's why ideas in economics can go in and out of fashion. The progress of
science is generally linear. As new research confirms or replaces existing
theories, one generation builds upon the next. Economics, however, moves in
cycles. A given doctrine can rise, fall and then later rise again. That's because
economists don't confirm their theories in quite the same way physicists do, by
just looking at the evidence. Instead, much as happens with preachers who gather a
congregation, a school rises by building a following – among both politicians and
the wider public.
For example, Milton Friedman was one of the most influential economists of the
late 20th century. But he had been around for decades before he got much of a
hearing. He might well have remained a marginal figure had it not been that
politicians such as Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan were sold on his belief in
the virtue of a free market. They sold that idea to the public, got elected, then
remade society according to those designs. An economist who gets a following gets
a pulpit. Although scientists, in contrast, might appeal to public opinion to
boost their careers or attract research funds, outside of pseudo-sciences, they
don't win support for their theories in this way.
However, if you think describing economics as a religion debunks it, you're
wrong. We need economics. It can be – it has been – a force for tremendous good.
But only if we keep its purpose in mind, and always remember what it can and can't
do.
T
he Irish
have been known to describe
their
notionally Catholic land as one where a thin Christian veneer was painted over an
ancient paganism. The same might be said of our own adherence to today's
neoliberal orthodoxy, which stresses individual liberty, limited government and
the free market. Despite outward observance of a well-entrenched doctrine, we
haven't fully transformed into the economic animals we are meant to be. Like the
Christian who attends church but doesn't always keep the commandments, we behave
as economic theory predicts only when it suits us. Contrary to the tenets of
orthodox economists, contemporary research suggests that, rather than seeking
always to maximise our personal gain, humans still remain reasonably altruistic
and selfless. Nor is it clear that the endless accumulation of wealth always makes
us happier. And when we do make decisions, especially those to do with matters of
principle, we seem not to engage in the sort of rational "utility-maximizing"
calculus that orthodox economic models take as a given. The truth is, in much of
our daily life
we don't fit the model
all that well.
For decades, neoliberal evangelists replied to such objections by saying it was
incumbent on us all to adapt to the model, which was held to be immutable – one
recalls Bill Clinton's depiction of neoliberal globalisation, for instance, as
a "force of nature"
. And yet, in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and the
consequent recession, there has been a turn against globalisation across much of
the west. More broadly, there has been
a wide repudiation of the "experts"
, most notably in the 2016 US election and
Brexit referendum.
It would be tempting for anyone who belongs to the "expert" class, and to the
priesthood of economics, to dismiss such behaviour as a clash between faith and
facts, in which the facts are bound to win in the end. In truth, the clash was
between two rival faiths – in effect, two distinct moral tales. So enamoured had
the so-called experts become with their scientific authority that they blinded
themselves to the fact that their own narrative of scientific progress was
embedded in a moral tale. It happened to be a narrative that had a happy ending
for those who told it, for it perpetuated the story of their own relatively
comfortable position as the reward of life in
a meritocratic society
that blessed people for their skills and flexibility.
That narrative made no room for the losers of this order, whose resentments were
derided as being a reflection of their boorish and retrograde character – which is
to say, their fundamental vice. The best this moral tale could offer everyone else
was incremental adaptation to an order whose caste system had become calcified.
For an audience yearning for a happy ending, this was bound to be a tale of woe.
The failure of this grand narrative is not, however, a reason for students of
economics to dispense with narratives altogether. Narratives will remain an
inescapable part of the human sciences for the simple reason that they are
inescapable for humans. It's funny that so few economists get this, because
businesses do. As the Nobel laureates George Akerlof and Robert Shiller write in
their recent book,
Phishing for Phools
, marketers use them all the time, weaving stories in the
hopes that we will place ourselves in them and be persuaded to buy what they are
selling. Akerlof and Shiller contend that the idea that free markets work
perfectly, and the idea that big government is the cause of so many of our
problems, are part of a story that is actually misleading people into adjusting
their behaviour in order to fit the plot. They thus believe storytelling is a "new
variable" for economics, since "the mental frames that underlie people's
decisions" are shaped by the stories they tell themselves.
Economists arguably do their best work when they take the stories we have given
them, and advise us on how we can help them to come true. Such agnosticism demands
a humility that was lacking in economic orthodoxy in recent years. Nevertheless,
economists don't have to abandon their traditions if they are to overcome the
failings of a narrative that has been rejected. Rather they can look within their
own history to find a method that avoids the evangelical certainty of orthodoxy.
In his 1971 presidential address to the American Economic Association, Wassily
Leontief counselled against the dangers of self-satisfaction. He noted that
although economics was starting to ride "the crest of intellectual respectability
an uneasy feeling about the present state of our discipline has been growing in
some of us who have watched its unprecedented development over the last three
decades".
Noting that pure theory was making economics more remote from day-to-day
reality, he said the problem lay in "the palpable inadequacy of the scientific
means" of using mathematical approaches to address mundane concerns. So much time
went into model-construction that the assumptions on which the models were based
became an afterthought. "But," he warned – a warning that the sub-prime boom's
fascination with mathematical models, and the bust's subsequent revelation of
their flaws, now reveals to have been prophetic – "it is precisely the empirical
validity of these assumptions on which the usefulness of the entire exercise
depends."
Leontief thought that economics departments were increasingly hiring and
promoting young economists who wanted to build pure models with little empirical
relevance. Even when they did empirical analysis, Leontief said economists seldom
took any interest in the meaning or value of their data. He thus called for
economists to explore their assumptions and data by conducting social, demographic
and anthropological work, and said economics needed to work more closely with
other disciplines.
Leontief's call for humility some 40 years ago stands as a reminder that the
same religions that can speak up for human freedom and dignity when in opposition,
can become obsessed with their rightness and the need to purge others of their
wickedness once they attain power. When the church retains its distance from
power, and a modest expectation about what it can achieve, it can stir our minds
to envision new possibilities and even new worlds. Once economists apply this kind
of sceptical scientific method to a human realm in which ultimate reality may
never be fully discernible, they will probably find themselves retreating from
dogmatism in their claims.
Paradoxically, therefore, as economics becomes more truly scientific, it will
become less of a science. Acknowledging these limitations will free it to serve us
once more.
Main image: Maxian/Getty/iStockphoto/Guardian Design
This is an edited extract from Twilight of the Money Gods: Economics as a
Religion and How it all Went Wrong by John Rapley, published by Simon & Schuster
on 13 July at £20. To order a copy for £17, go to
bookshop.theguardian.com
or call 0330 333 6846. Free UK p&p over
£10, online orders only. Phone orders min p&p of £1.99.
"... John Williams counts the long term discouraged workers (discouraged for more than one year) who formerly (before "reforms") were counted officially. When the long term discouraged are counted, the US unemployment rate is in the 22-23 percent range. This is born out by the clear fact that the labor force participation rate has been falling throughout the alleded "recovery." Normally, labor force participation rates rise during economic recoveries. ..."
"... It is an extraordinary thing that although the US government itself reports that if even a small part of discouraged workers are countered as unemployed the unemployment rate is 8.6%, the presstitute financial media, a collection of professional liars, still reports, in the face of the government's admission, that the unemployment rate as 4.4%. ..."
The "recovery" is more than a mystery. It is a miracle. It exists only on fake news paper.
According to CNN, an unreliable source for sure, Jennifer Tescher, president and CEO of the Center
for Financial Services Innovation, reports that about half of Americans report that their living
expenses are equal to or exceed their incomes. Among those aged 18 to 25 burdened by student loans,
54% say their debts are equal to or exceed their incomes. This means that half of the US population
has ZERO discretionary income. So what is driving the recovery?
Nothing. For half or more of the US population there is no discretionary income there with which
to drive the economy.
The older part of the population has no discretionary income either. For a decade there has been
essentially zero interest on the savings of the elderly, and if you believe John Williams of shadowstats.com,
which I do, the real interest rates have been zero and even negative as inflation is measured in
a way designed to prevent Social Security cost of living adjustments.
In other words, the American economy has been living on the shrinkage of the savings and living
standards of its population.
Last Friday's employment report is just another lie from the government. The report says that
the unemployment rate is 4.4% and that June employment increased by 222,000 jobs. A rosy picture.
But as I have just demonstrated, there are no fundamentals to support it. It is just another US government
lie like Saddam Hussein's weapons of mass destruction, Assad's use of chemical weapons against his
own people, Russian invasion of Ukraine, and so forth and so on.
The rosy unemployment picture is totally contrived. The unemployment rate is 4.4% because discouraged
workers who have not searched for a job in the past four weeks are not counted as unemployed.
The BLS has a second measure of unemployment, known as U6, which is seldom reported by the presstitute
financial media. According to this official measure the US unemployment rate is about double the
reported rate.
Why? the U6 rate counts discouraged workers who have been discouraged for less than one year.
John Williams counts the long term discouraged workers (discouraged for more than one year) who
formerly (before "reforms") were counted officially. When the long term discouraged are counted,
the US unemployment rate is in the 22-23 percent range. This is born out by the clear fact that the
labor force participation rate has been falling throughout the alleded "recovery." Normally, labor
force participation rates rise during economic recoveries.
It is very easy for the government to report a low jobless rate when the government studiously
avoids counting the unemployed.
It is an extraordinary thing that although the US government itself reports that if even a small
part of discouraged workers are countered as unemployed the unemployment rate is 8.6%, the presstitute
financial media, a collection of professional liars, still reports, in the face of the government's
admission, that the unemployment rate as 4.4%.
Now, let's do what I have done month after month year after year. Let's look at the jobs that
the BLS alleges are being created. Remember, most of these alleged jobs are the product of the birth/death
model that adds by assumption alone about 100,000 jobs per month. In other words, these jobs come
out of a model, not from reality.
Where are these reported jobs? They are where they always are in lowly paid domestic services.
Health care and social assistance, about half of which is "ambulatory health care services," provided
59,000 jobs. Leisure and hospitality provided 36,000 jobs of which 29,300 consist of waitresses and
bartenders. Local government rose by 35,000. Manufacturing, once the backbone of the US economy,
provided a measly 1,000 jobs.
As I have emphasized for a decade or two, the US is devolving into a third world workforce where
the only employment available is in lowly paid domestic service jobs that cannot be offshored and
that do not pay enough to provide an independent existance. This is why 50% of 25-year olds live
at home with their parents and why there are more Americans aged 24-34 living with parents than living
indepenently.
This is not the economic profile of a "superpower" that the idiot neoconservatives claim the US
to be. The American economy that offshoring corporations and financialization have created is incapable
of supporting the enormous US debt burden. It is only a matter of time and circumstance.
I doubt that the United States can continue in the ranks of a first world economy. Americans have
sat there sucking their thumbs while their "leaders" destroyed them.
I agree that the replication crisis is more than just a normal scientific self-correction. For
one thing, it is about widespread methods problems, rather than refining or replacing a particular
theory. But I don't agree that "they should have known" based on statistics education. First,
I came away from three semesters of statistics with a vague impression that multiple comparisons
correction and conditional stopping were "picky" theoretical considerations. There was just no
discussion of how wrong you can be if you break "the rules".
The more subtle and fascinating part of the replication crisis is how fields evolved standards
of practice that seem "designed" to satisfy the institutional incentives for maximum publishable
results per unit effort. This is evolution in action.
Some people like Meehl in psychology noticed the problem decades ago, but everyone was too
busy writing papers to pay attention to these party poopers.
More broadly, it isn't obvious what the right level of rigor and the strictness standards for
evidence should be. The skeptical position is always strong. Formal statistical procedures for
confident knowledge are only about 100 years old. Somehow we got along before then, and succeeded
in socially constructing functional systems. Social psychology is an example of just such a functional
system; it just wasn't optimizing what we thought it was.
To put it another way, the current replication crisis narrative is level 5, comparing systems.
To say it is just about bad methods is level 4. The level 5 understanding is that the system structure
and incentives must change.
Citing when you can't remember the author or title is bad method. Yes? If you're saying that
its a fact you ought to be able to back it up. I'm not familiar with the claim you make, though
it is not central to my own work, so I might have missed it. Still...
Getting things completely wrong used to be a lot more common than it is today. Which
is a testament to progress.
I agree that the problem goes deeper. But my story about what has gone wrong is different -
I've tried to make this comment stand-alone, but it may rely on terminology I've been developing
this year on my blog. It's hard to get across my point without the jargon.
The field of psychology tried to move from non-science to science by ostensibly adopting scientific
methods. The trouble is that at this level of the science stack, the methods of reductive materialism
are very difficult to apply or simply don't apply. That difficulty was never really acknowledged
or accounted for. Methods for studying systems, or even the acknowledgement that human beings
are social animals, seemed to get lost in the rush to find results that would make the physicists
pay attention.
This is really a failure of metaphysical reductionism, because it did not allow those working
at the upper levels of the stack the proper freedom to chose methods appropriate to their level.
Reductionists who dominate science only recognise the lowest levels as real, thus psychology had
try too hard to make their results fit that skewed paradigm. Psychology was never going to be
very amenable to analysis because systems dominate at that level of the stack. The havoc already
wrecked by the Romantics following Freud meant that psychology had been so decontextualised from
its social milieu that once reductionists got involved it was always going to be a disaster.
Many biologists are antireductive in outlook, because once you take your organism apart it
ceases do anything interesting. Even so the gold standard for knowledge and method is reductionism,
even when it is entirely inappropriate to the scale and level.
Since you are right about hindsight here is some foresight:
Biology is currently dominated by Neoliberal political ideology and Utilitarian philosophy
that is going to have to change at some point. Compare Richard Dawkins to the late Lynn Margulis
or Frans de Waal and you realise that Dawkins perpetuates some completely ludicrous myths about
people and evolution.
The role of symbiosis, hybridisation, cooperation, communities, and other systemic features
of living systems are almost completely written out of history. Witness the extent of hybridisation
amongst human species that makes a mockery of the "tree" metaphor for evolution. Similarly our
nature as social animals, which requires that we operate on the basis of in-group empathy and
reciprocity as all social animals do, is still being nudged out of the mainstream by the (literally)
insane assumptions of Nash and game theory.
A time will come when we have a paradigm shift in biology that will expose wrong-headed methods
that obscured knowledge and obstructed progress after the discovery of DNA. This will be on the
same scale as the psychology debacle, but it might not get the same level of press as psych because
people respect biology and psych has always been suspect.
The unfolding debacle in psychology is nothing compared to the fantasy island that is economics.
In economics many of the major tenets still taught up to graduate level have already been
disproved , but that has not changed anything. For example in the 1970s (!) Sonnenschein,
Mantel, and Debreu proved that a demand curve need not be a simple curve with a downward slope
- in practice a demand curve can be any polynomial, i.e. any wavy line (Steve Keen Debunking
Economics ).
The equivalent is teaching the planetary model of an atom to PhD level. And then noting that
an atom is nothing like a solar system, but continuing to model it as a solar system because anything
else is too hard! The failure of the vast majority of professional economists to predict either
the Great Crash of 1929 and the subsequent Depression or the Great Recession of 2008
and the subsequent stagnation is an indictment that goes far deeper than what is happening in
psychology. Neoclassical Economics is no better than a hoax. No amount of failure to replicate
seems to have any effect on the economics hegemony.
Finally, here's a weird thing about the replication crisis in psychology. The very same bloggers
and tweeters who promote the "replication crisis" narrative, still routinely blog and tweet about
one-off, non-replicated studies recently published in psych journals as if there is no crisis
.
This helped clarify some thoughts I've
had floating around in my mind for a while, thanks.
Around 2012, in the context of algorithmic trading, I tasked myself (with the help of a team)
with finding a way to predict price movements of a certain set of securities at a certain frequency
(or lower). The details of the problem aren't that important but one critical side effect was
a limited data set.
Methodological issues
I myself had no more than undergrad statistics knowledge although some members of the team
had grad-level training and experience working on applied problems (most relevant being in physics).
Nevertheless, we fell into the trap of bad statistics -- fooling ourselves to make methodological
exceptions due to small expected effect sizes (sounds like psych, eh?), data snooping, etc
For one thing, it is about widespread methods problems, rather than refining or replacing
a particular theory. But I don't agree that "they should have known" based on statistics education.
First, I came away from three semesters of statistics with a vague impression that multiple
comparisons correction and conditional stopping were "picky" theoretical considerations. There
was just no discussion of how wrong you can be if you break "the rules".
My guess is more time spent learning to not break the rules would have not helped...
Epistemic virtue issues
If we fooled ourselves into seeing something that wasn't there, we would waste money doing
further research on it, and then directly lose money by trying to make real-world, real money
predictions with it. This wasn't enough! In this case, I think it was the mindset that
failing to find something wasn't an option because of the plan I had created (for various
reasons) to find a way along this path.
Skin in the game isn't sufficient if you are hamstrung to play the game anyway. You need a
way to surrender a path and look for alternatives
In economics many of the major tenets still taught up to graduate level have already been
disproved, but that has not changed anything. For example in the 1970s (!) Sonnenschein, Mantel,
and Debreu proved that a demand curve need not be a simple curve with a downward slope - in
practice a demand curve can be any polynomial, i.e. any wavy line (Steve Keen Debunking Economics).
They are forced to play the game -- the path cannot be abandoned until an alternative exists.
But it will be tough to find until the path is abandoned...
Mentorship/community issues
I think this could have saved my endeavor. Unfortunately I was in a position where there was
no one around me to learn how to do the science in this particular domain , and there
was team-wide skepticism of how much knowledge on how to do the science was transferable cross-domain
. In hindsight, the answer is much more than we thought .
This is both discouraging and encouraging for the future of social sciences. The discouraging
aspect is there may be very few, or no one, left in them that is capable of doing the science
properly. From whom will they be mentored and how will the community guide itself, then? On top
of this, you have the problem of cultural momentum. The encouraging aspect is the surprising amount
of transferability of science-skill between fields. Maybe some physicists will be able to move
into psych and revitalize it? This leaves out the issues of applying reductive positivism to "higher
domain" fields raised by Jayarava, however.
This is really a failure of metaphysical reductionism, because it did not allow those working
at the upper levels of the stack the proper freedom to chose methods appropriate to their level.
Reductionists who dominate science only recognise the lowest levels as real, thus psychology
had try too hard to make their results fit that skewed paradigm. Psychology was never going
to be very amenable to analysis because systems dominate at that level of the stack.
Do you have a sense of what these more appropriate methods are? More exploratory science being
labeled as such?
You've added much analysis & detail, but this strangely reminds of something I was taught as
a child: If you lose your keys, you won't find them by staying under the street lamp. You have
to go back out there in the dark, where it's cold and scary.
(The person who taught me this was a Sunday school teacher. I've noticed that mentioning anything
to do with Christianity gets up the backs of most scientists, but as was so rightly pointed out,
there is cargo-cult science just as there is cargo-cult religion, but there are still a few people
in both fields who are trying to get it right. )
Both Kevin Kelly, and you, make the key point that productive scenes need boundaries. My
thesis will be that in the "atomized era," the internet and other forces have made boundary-maintenance
much more difficult-so scenes are less prevalent, to the culture's detriment.
My (Millenial) friend and (Millenial) I were speculating about this just the other day -- specifically
how much more exclusive and comfy online communities used to feel. Funny that the growth of the
Internet has caused this boundary-removing effect even on itself. Looking forward to this thesis!
The situated learning stuff is fascinating. Are you familiar with Ericsson's work on expertise?
I wonder what the hybrid theory between situated learning and deliberate practice is. Are there
contradictions?
I have some questions pertaining to your recent Imperfect Buddha podcast. Sorry if this is
the wrong place.
You sounded nonchalant when saying that you don't know how to account for people's frequent
comments that they only developed some of the aspects (cognitive, ethical, social, etc) of a particular
stage, or even developed stages out of order. Why so nonchalant? Why not more suspicion for Kegan's
experimental methodology?
I have a specific (apparent) contradiction in mind about Stage 4. You've written that STEM
people are more likely to develop Stage 4 cognitive skills. But also there's a (reasonable) stereotype
of STEM people being disdainful for (what appear to them as) arbitrary rules/systems/bureaucracy/etc.
How do you square this?
@Duckland "Ugh, this is so byzantine, why can't this bureaucracy act logically and efficiently?
All we have is a slow and illegible mess of incentives with no rhyme or reason to it. They really
need to optimize this. If only they had the right system."
how much more exclusive and comfy online communities used to feel.
Yes... partly (many have observed) this is due to the rise of centralized social networks.
There used to be zillions of little communities here and there; now a handful of platforms dominate,
and commercial reasons dictate discouraging boundaries around subcultures.
Are you familiar with Ericsson's work on expertise?
From secondary sources only. I know the gist; haven't read him.
I wonder what the hybrid theory between situated learning and deliberate practice is. Are
there contradictions?
Hmm, interesting questions. Offhand: the situated learning people are anthropologists, and
their prototype cases come from traditional, non-systematic communities. (Mayan midwives are their
favorite.) So Lave & Wenger have an arguably-stage-5 theory of a stage 3 phenomenon. All lower-stage
phenomena persist when you transition into later stages, so we do all learn in part through participation
in a community of practice; but in modern societies, we also learn through stage 4 explicit systems
of instruction and practice. Those coexist and interact in complicated ways. Offhand, I don't
recall research on the details of those interactions, but I'd bet people have done substantial
work on that.
even developed stages out of order
Have people said that? I don't recall it. Some geeky people feel they skipped stage 3, but
I think they're probably wrong. They just aren't particularly good at emotions and relationships.
But this would be hard to test.
Unless you have a very large dataset, or do very careful longitudinal studies, all you can
say empirically is that "statistically, most people develop through the stages in order and roughly
in sync." I'm pretty sure that's true. There may be exceptions, or not.
I think the uses I am putting the framework to don't depend on whether or not there are rare
exceptions.
Now it could also be that the whole story is completely bogus. A lot of psychological work
has recently disintegrated in the face of more rigorous experimental replication. (Kegan's framework,
and especially Kohlberg's work, have been replicated many times by independent researchers;
but they might all be making the same mistakes.) This stuff might also fail a more rigorous test.
My guess is not; but unless/until the test is done, one can't know. In academia, this research
area seems to have gone out of fashion, so I would guess we're not going to see a strong test
anytime soon.
Croulebarbe 's answer to your last questions seems right. That is: "right system vs
wrong system" is stage 4.
Also, although a bureaucratic system is justified on a stage 4 basis, sloppy ones operate largely
on a stage 3 basis: the rules are interpreted relationally/communally rather than logically. I
suspect that's what STEM people particularly loathe.
When I enrolled the PhD programme It was clear to me that it's high time someone should be
able to predict or at least understand which are the key success factors for LGBT healthy relationships
in adult life.
While reading your essay I could but think of all my fears as a young and inexperienced researcher.
It hurt when reading "the guy who figured out the problem was ignored and never cited" and I figured
sincerely one of my deepest stupid motivations for doing this research – Ego satisfaction?
Do I really care about the phenomena I am supposed to study? What is the link than with my
engagement, with the time and effort I dedicate to it?
I believe I do have a lust for understanding, I do hope to figure out what is actually going
on. But that seems nothing compared to what I should know. The how. The methodology, the ability
to study what's relevant, to extract from literature the important issues and to be able to create
a research from a methodological point of view that is helpful and that will eventually pinpoint
my questions.
Thank you for stating I could be wrong and that's ok, it gives some sort of empowerment to
a young researcher like me. I will reflect more on what you call methods of technical rationality,
especially publishing negative results and abandoning the famously flawed p<0.05 significance
that used to scare the curiosity in me.
And yes, the mythical "scientific method"! I thought I was here to predict and measure. And
that there are clear ways for me to be able to control and predict my thesis.
So what I'm taking with me from your essay is firstly becoming a cargo cultist and go towards
a meta-systematic approach while looking to master at least some of the methods.
Tackling "cargo cult" phenomenon is something I began to ask myself since I started to teach.
How can I help the students create something original? How long is it acceptable to imitate
and after what stage are they expected to produce something original? What context could benefit
them? This are legitimate questions in any field. I see the phenomenon of imitation as an early
stage of learning process or skill acquisition. I enjoyed reading your article, first because
it validated some of my intuitions :) and secondly because it underlined the prerequisite for
overcoming the imitation phase - to overpass the form without substance phase.
One of them was curiosity. You've identified curiosity as a source of honesty: "Honesty comes
out of curiosity, mostly, I think. If you really do want to know, there's much less motivation
to promote a wrong answer-arrived at either through deliberate fraud or sloppy, inadequately-controlled
experimentation."
As an European working in the Middle East as an aid worker I had many friends (nationals)
who were looking for ways to immigrate to Europe, Australia or north America for a better life.
I was wondering why aren't they interested to improve things in their own country?
What could
change their minds? Reflecting more upon these issues, I understood that among different options
to understand the phenomenon, going back to school is the best step towards finding some good
leads. I ended up looking at the entire phenomenon of migration. Curiosity was the nudge that
led me towards pursuing a phd in the field of migration.
Your analysis about legitimate peripheral participation helped me better understand why some
people thrive and some are failing. I also had in mind something related to imprinting. Who are
the ones that have a major impact on you in an early stage as a junior researcher? How much is
the context influencing one's pursue of innovation and how much are other factors influencing its
success?
"... NAIRU is a specific claim and estimate about the way the economy works. As you discovered yourself, the Fed literally produces a NAIRU estimate and uses that estimate to determine policy. NAIRU cannot be estimated accurately, and furthermore there is zero evidence of accelerating inflation. So there is literally nothing redeeming about the theory except to say that there is some relationship between supply labor, and inflation. Which is to say, that your support of the thing is wrong, and all of our criticisms that NAIRU is trash are correct. ..."
"... The answer is that there is no unemployment rate that generates accelerating inflation. As inflation is not simply a relationship between unemployment and prices. Inflation is a result of many different types of inputs. ..."
"... There are literally zero examples of low unemployment rates, even below 1% during WWII, that have resulted in accelerating inflation. You and the NAIRU crowd have no legs to stand on. ..."
"... You make the same mistake as all illiterate persons, that is, you cannot read. What I have clearly stated is: "NAIRU is dead, not because of measurement problems, but because the underlying employment theory is false."* The measurement problem is a side issue.** ..."
"... "better to say that there is no necessary or constant relationship between employment and inflation that can be expressed either as a function or a rule," ..."
"... Good line here Tom... they don't have a function... ..."
"... I've closely followed this NAIRU argument here and on other threads. I don't have a dog in this fight, but it seems perfectly obvious from all this that Auburn and Brian have this exactly right. And for the life of me I cannot fathom how anyone can misunderstand their argument: there may be a link between employment and inflation, but the NAIRU doesn't capture it. There may be a link between dogs barking at a full moon, but my theory of a moon made out of green cheese doesn't capture it. ..."
"... Standard labor market theory as it is incorporated in the NAIRU-Phillips curve is not vaguely true, or evolutionary true as David Glasner maintains, but provable false. ..."
For the second time, you claimed "Nobody says there is no relationship between supply,
employment, and inflation." My answer is the same as before: what does Brian Romanchuk mean by
saying NAIRU should be "bashed, smashed and trashed". Seems a pretty outright condemnation of
the whole idea to me.
Tom,
You say "Probably better to say that there is no necessary or constant
relationship…". Quite agree. But whoever said there WAS a constant relationship?
Certainly not the Fed. Anyone with a bit brain ought to realise that NAIRU will vary with a
whole host of variables: standards of education, recent unemployment levels (hystersis) and so
on.
EK-H,
You make the naïve mistake many people make of thinking the because something cannot be
measured accurately that therefor it does not have a precise value. The amount of iron in the
Moon has a very very precise value indeed. Ask God how much iron there is on and in the Moon
and he'd tell you the figure to the nearest 0.00000001%. In contrast, astronomers might not
know the quantity to better than plus or minus 10% for all I know. It is therefor perfectly
permissible to write equations or get involved in discussions which assume a very very precise
value for the amount of iron in the Moon. Same goes for NAIRU.
Much of the stuff I've written makes the latter assumption: it is helpful to make that
assumption sometimes.
No Egmont, its not about scientific idiocy. Its about the nature of the subject. Economics
is not different than social psychology in this regard.
Ralph-
NAIRU is a specific claim and estimate about the way the economy works. As you discovered
yourself, the Fed literally produces a NAIRU estimate and uses that estimate to determine
policy. NAIRU cannot be estimated accurately, and furthermore there is zero evidence of
accelerating inflation. So there is literally nothing redeeming about the theory except to
say that there is some relationship between supply labor, and inflation. Which is to say,
that your support of the thing is wrong, and all of our criticisms that NAIRU is trash are
correct.
What is the unemployment rate that would correspond to accelearating inflation right now
Ralph?
The answer is that there is no unemployment rate that generates accelerating inflation. As
inflation is not simply a relationship between unemployment and prices. Inflation is a result
of many different types of inputs.
There are literally zero examples of low unemployment rates, even below 1% during WWII,
that have resulted in accelerating inflation. You and the NAIRU crowd have no legs to stand
on.
You say: "You make the naïve mistake many people make of thinking the because
something cannot be measured accurately that therefore it does not have a precise value."
You make the same mistake as all illiterate persons, that is, you cannot read. What I have
clearly stated is: "NAIRU is dead, not because of measurement problems, but because the
underlying employment theory is false."* The measurement problem is a side issue.**
Egmont Kakarot-Handtke
* See 'NAIRU: an exhaustive dancing-angels-on-a-pinpoint blather'
http://axecorg.blogspot.de/2017/02/nairu-exhaustive-dancing-angels-on.html
** See 'NAIRU and the scientific incompetence of Orthodoxy and Heterodoxy'
http://axecorg.blogspot.de/2017/02/nairu-and-scientific-incompetence-of.html
The moronic part of economists, i.e. the vast majority, maintains that economics is a
social science. Time to wake up to the fact that economics is a system science.#1
Economics is NOT a science of individual/social/political behavior - this is the social
science delusion - but of the behavior of the monetary economy . All Human-Nature issues are
the subject matter of other disciplines (psychology, sociology, anthropology, biology/
Darwinism, political science, social philosophy, history, etcetera) and are taken in from
these by way of multi-disciplinary cooperation.#2
The economic system is subject to precise and measurable systemic laws.#3
Egmont Kakarot-Handtke
#1 See 'Lawson's fundamental methodological error and the failure of Heterodoxy'
http://axecorg.blogspot.de/2016/03/lawsons-fundamental-methodological.html
#2 See 'Economics and the social science delusion'
http://axecorg.blogspot.de/2016/03/economics-and-social-science-delusion.html
#3 See 'The three fundamental economic laws'
http://axecorg.blogspot.de/2016/03/the-three-fundamental-economic-laws.html
But whoever said there WAS a constant relationship? Certainly not the Fed.
Not now. They had to learn this by first the NAIRU model that assumed a natural rate and
cet. par., and then the difficulty of writing a rule that could be applied across time.
Too many confounding factors involved that are not directly related to employment or the
interest rate.
It is, first of all, of utmost importance to distinguish between political and theoretical
economics. The main differences are: (i) The goal of political economics is to successfully
push an agenda, the goal of theoretical economics is to successfully explain how the actual
economy works. (ii) In political economics anything goes; in theoretical economics the
scientific standards of material and formal consistency are observed.
Political economics has produced NOTHING of scientific value in the last 200+ years. The
four majors approaches - Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism - are mutually
contradictory, axiomatically false, and materially/formally inconsistent.
A closer look at the history of economic thought shows that theoretical economics (=
science) had been hijacked from the very beginning by the agenda pushers of political
economics. These folks never rose above the level of vacuous econ-waffle. The whole
discussion from Samuelson/Solow's unemployment-inflation trade-off to Friedman/Phelps's
natural rate to the rational expectation NAIRU is a case in point.
The NAIRU-Phillips curve has zero scientific content. It is a plaything of retarded
political economists. Samuelson, Solow, Friedman, Phelps, and the rest of participants in the
NAIRU discussion up to Wren-Lewis are fake scientists.*
Egmont Kakarot-Handtke
* See also 'Modern macro moronism'
http://axecorg.blogspot.de/2017/02/modern-macro-moronism.html
"better to say that there is no necessary or constant relationship between employment and
inflation that can be expressed either as a function or a rule,"
Good line here Tom... they don't have a function...
But I would point out that with the employment issue, we have had an unregulated system
interface (open borders) for decades which is ofc going to result in chaos..
I see: so you're saying the "underlying employment theory" of NAIRU "is false": i.e.
you're saying there is no relationship between inflation and unemployment.
Why then don't you advocate a massive increase in demand. Think of the economic benefits
and social problems solved.!!
Reason you don't advocate that is that, like all the other NAIRU deniers, you know
perfectly well that THERE IS a relationship between inflation and unemployment.!!
It would be fine if you could first learn to read and to think and to do your economics
homework.
The point at issue is the labor market theory and the remarkable fact of the matter is
that economists have after 200+ years NO valid labor market theory. The proof is in the
NAIRU-Phillips curve. So what these failures are in effect doing is giving policy advice
without sound theoretical foundation. Scientists don't do this.
What is known since the founding fathers about the separation of politics and science is
this: "A scientific observer or reasoner, merely as such, is not an adviser for practice. His
part is only to show that certain consequences follow from certain causes, and that to obtain
certain ends, certain means are the most effectual. Whether the ends themselves are such as
ought to be pursued, and if so, in what cases and to how great a length, it is no part of his
business as a cultivator of science to decide, and science alone will never qualify him for
the decision." (J. S. Mill)
The first point is that economists violate the separation of politics and science on a
daily basis.#1 The second point is that their unwarranted advice is utter rubbish because
they have NO idea how the economy works. The problem society has with economists is that it
would be much better off without these clowns.
You ask me: "Why then don't you advocate a massive increase in demand. Think of the
economic benefits and social problems solved.!!"
Answer: The business of the economist is the true theory about how the economic system
works and NOT the solution of social problems. This is the proper business of politicians. In
addition, an economist who understands how the price and profit mechanism works does not make
such a silly proposal, only brain-dead political agenda pushers do.#2
What I am indeed advocating is that retarded econ-wafflers are thrown out of economics and
that economics gets finally out of what Feynman aptly called cargo cult science.#3
Economists claim since more that 200 years that they are doing science and this is
celebrated each year with the 'Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred
Nobel'. Time to make this claim come true.
The only thing economist like you can actively do to contribute to the progress of
economics is switching on TV and watching 24/365.
Egmont Kakarot-Handtke
#1 See 'Scientific suicide in the revolving door'
http://axecorg.blogspot.de/2016/11/scientific-suicide-in-revolving-door.html
#2 See 'Rethinking deficit spending'
http://axecorg.blogspot.de/2016/12/rethinking-deficit-spending.html
#3 See 'Economists and the destructive power of stupidity'
http://axecorg.blogspot.de/2017/02/economists-and-destructive-power-of.html
"The business of the economist is the true theory about how the economic system works and
NOT the solution of social problems. This is the proper business of politicians."
"The business of the economist" is not just "true theory": it is also to give the best
economic advice they can even where the theory is clearly defective. In the case of the
relationship between inflation and unemployment, the EXACT nature of that relationship is not
known with much accuracy, but governments just have to take a judgement on what level of
unemployment results in too much inflation. Ergo economics have a duty to give the best
advice they can in the circumstances.
Re social problems, your above quote also doesn't alter the fact that economists are in a
position to solve HUGE social problems if they promote an increase in demand where that is
possible. So why are you so reluctant to solve those social problems by advocating a huge
increase in demand. It's blindingly obvious.
Like all the other NAIRU deniers, you know perfectly well there is a relationship between
inflation and unemployment!!
To say that there is "a" relationship between inflation and unemployment does not even
remotely support the claims inherent in the NAIRU, nor does it justify its use to guide the
macroeconomic framework. NAIRU does not claim that there is "a" relationship between
inflation and unemployment (that lesser claim is covered adequately by the Phillips Curve).
NAIRU claims that low levels of unemployment generate ACCELERATING inflation (i.e.
"hyperinflation"), a claim based on pure sophistry and nothing else. If you would like to
support the NAIRU's utterly fallacious claim that low unemployment generates ACCELERATING
inflation, then please provide data to support that claim.
Furthermore, "a" relationship between unemployment and inflation in no way justifies the
central bank intervention of choking off economic growth to prevent "too many jobs". Is the
inflation harmful or benign? With the historical perspective available to us from nearly 5
decades of NAIRU, all that is required is to look at the chart of hourly wage growth vs
productivity and observe that real wages growth took a sharp right turn at the very time
NAIRU was implemented worldwide. There has not been one iota of real wage growth since the
70's (despite low inflation), whereas the real wage grew steadily prior to that (despite
moderate inflation). If that is the price of "protecting" us from inflation, then in what way
is it beneficial to do so?
I see Ralph Musgrave referred to my article again.
Good Lord, how can I make what I wrote simpler to understand?
The DEFINITION of NAIRU is the level of the unemployment rate at which the price level
starts to accelerate. Sure, there's usually another variable in there mucking up the works,
but it's going to be a second order effect in the current environment.
- If you hand me a time series of the NAIRU, I could demonstrate how the predicted
acceleration does not match observed data.
- If you cannot hand me such a time series, that is a strong indication that no such
series exists. In which case, you're wrong, and I'm right.
You say: "Ergo economics have a duty to give the best advice they can in the
circumstances."
The only duty of scientifically incompetent economists is to throw themselves under the
bus. Economists are a menace to their fellow citizens as Napoleon already knew: "Late in
life, moreover, he claimed that he had always believed that if an empire were made of granite
the ideas of economists, if listened to, would suffice to reduce it to dust." (Viner)
Economists do NOT solve social problems they ARE a social problem.
You repeat your silly question: "So why are you so reluctant to solve those social
problems by advocating a huge increase in demand. It's blindingly obvious."
Yes it is blindingly obvious that deficit spending does NOT solve social problems but
CREATES the social problem of an insanely unequal distribution (see the references
above).
This follows from the true labor market theory which is given with the systemic employment
equation.#1 "The correct theory of the macroeconomic price mechanism tells us that ―
for purely SYSTEMIC reasons ― the average wage rate has in the current situation to
rise faster than the average price. THIS opens the way out of mass unemployment, deflation,
and stagnation and NOT the blather of scientifically incompetent orthodox and heterodox
agenda pushers."#2
Right policy depends on true theory: "In order to tell the politicians and practitioners
something about causes and best means, the economist needs the true theory or else he has not
much more to offer than educated common sense or his personal opinion." (Stigum)
Economists do not have the true theory. They have NOTHING to offer. The NAIRU-Phillips
curve is provable false. Because of this ALL economic policy conclusions drawn from it are
counterproductive, that is, they WORSEN the situation. So, Samuelson, Solow, Friedman, Phelps
and the other NAIRU-Phillips curve proponents bear the responsibility for mass unemployment
and the social devastation that comes with it.
From the fact that the NAIRU labor market theory is false follows that economists are
incompetent scientists and that ALL their economic policy proposals are scientifically
worthless.
Egmont Kakarot-Handtke
#1 See 'NAIRU: an exhaustive dancing-angels-on-a-pinpoint blather'
http://axecorg.blogspot.de/2017/02/nairu-exhaustive-dancing-angels-on.html
#2 See 'NAIRU and the scientific incompetence of Orthodoxy and Heterodoxy'
http://axecorg.blogspot.de/2017/02/nairu-and-scientific-incompetence-of.html
I've closely followed this NAIRU argument here and on other threads. I don't have a dog in
this fight, but it seems perfectly obvious from all this that Auburn and Brian have this
exactly right. And for the life of me I cannot fathom how anyone can misunderstand their
argument: there may be a link between employment and inflation, but the NAIRU doesn't capture
it. There may be a link between dogs barking at a full moon, but my theory of a moon made out
of green cheese doesn't capture it.
Comment on David Glasner on 'Richard Lipsey and the Phillips Curve Redux'
David Glasner contributes to the NAIRU discussion#1 by reproducing essential content of
his 2013 paper. Back then he propagated Lipsey's concept of multiple equilibria or band of
unemployment (NAIBU) which is consistent with a stable rate of inflation. The NAIBU concept
is a fine example of the tendency of economists to soften, relativize, qualify, and
semantically dilute every concept until it is senseless and useless.
It is the very characteristic of economics that there are no well-defined concepts and
this begins with the pivotal economic concepts profit and income. The habit of swampification
keeps the discourse safely in the no man's land where "nothing is clear and everything is
possible" (Keynes) and where anything goes.
Swampification is what Popper called an immunizing strategy. The beauty of vagueness and
ambiguity is that it cannot be falsified: "Another thing I must point out is that you cannot
prove a vague theory wrong." (Feynman)#2
David Glasner applies the concept of evolution in order to swampify the NAIRU: "The
current behavior of economies … is consistent with evolutionary theory in which the
economy is constantly evolving in the face of path-dependent, endogenously generated,
technological change, and has a wide range of unemployment and GDP over which the inflation
rate is stable."
In other words, presumably there is a relationship between unemployment and inflation but
nobody knows what it is. While science is known to strive for uniqueness, economics is known
to strive for ambiguity and obfuscation. This swampiness is rationalized as realism. After
all, reality is messy, isn't it?
To recall, the Phillips curve started as a simple and remarkably stable EMPIRICAL
relationship between wage rate changes and the rate of unemployment. The original Phillips
curve was reinterpreted and thereby messed up by Samuelson and Solow who introduced the
economic policy trade-off between inflation and unemployment which was finally thrown out
again with the NAIRU.
A conceptional error/mistake/blunder slipped in with the bastardization of the original
Phillips curve that was never rectified but in effect buried under a huge heap of
inconclusive economic shop talk. This means that until this very day economics has no valid
theory of the labor market.
So, the microfounded NAIRU-Phillips curve has first of all to be rectified.#3 The
macrofounded SYSTEM-Phillips curve is shown on Wikimedia
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:AXEC62.png
From this correct employment equation follows in the MOST ELEMENTARY case that an increase
of the macro-ratio rhoF=W/PR leads to higher total employment L. The ratio rhoF embodies the
price mechanism. Let the rate of change of productivity R for simplicity be zero, i.e. r=0,
then there are three logical cases, that is, THREE types of inflation.
(i) If the rate of change of the wage rate W is equal to the rate of change of the price P,
i.e. w=p, then employment does NOT change NO MATTER how big or small the rates of change are.
That is, NO amount of inflation or deflation has any effect on employment. Inflation is
neutral, there is no trade-off between unemployment and inflation.
(ii) If the rate of change of the wage rate is greater than the rate of change of the price
then employment INCREASES. There is a POSITIVE effect of inflation on employment.
(iii) If the rate of change of the wage rate is smaller than the rate of change of the price
then employment DECREASES. There is a NEGATIVE effect of inflation on employment.
So, it is the DIFFERENCE in the rates of change of wage rate and price and not the
absolute magnitude of change that is decisive. Every PERFECTLY SYNCHRONOUS
inflation/deflation is employment-neutral, that is, employment remains indefinitely where it
actually is. The neutral inflation can start at ANY point between full and zero employment.
The crucial fact to notice is that there is no such thing as "inflation", there are THREE
types of inflation.
The systemic employment equation defines the causal relationship of "inflation" on
employment. However, there is the inverse causality of employment on "inflation".
Common sense suggests that positive inflation (ii) is more probable the closer actual
employment is at full employment and negative inflation (iii) is more probable the farther
away actual employment is from full employment. In other words: the market economy is
inherently unstable. The feed-back loop between employment and "inflation" is the very
antithesis to the idea of equilibrium. To recall, the NAIRU is DEFINED as an equilibrium.
Standard economics has built equilibrium right into the premises, i.e. into the axiomatic
foundations. All of economics starts with the idea that the market economy is an equilibrium
system. It turns out that this premise is false, just the opposite is the case.
Standard labor market theory as it is incorporated in the NAIRU-Phillips curve is not
vaguely true, or evolutionary true as David Glasner maintains, but provable false.
Egmont Kakarot-Handtke
#1 See 'NAIRU: an exhaustive dancing-angels-on-a-pinpoint blather'
http://axecorg.blogspot.de/2017/02/nairu-exhaustive-dancing-angels-on.html
and 'NAIRU and the scientific incompetence of Orthodoxy and Heterodoxy'
http://axecorg.blogspot.de/2017/02/nairu-and-scientific-incompetence-of.html
#2 "By having a vague theory it is possible to get either result. ... It is usually said when
this is pointed out, 'When you are dealing with psychological matters things can't be defined
so precisely'. Yes, but then you cannot claim to know anything about it."
#3 See 'Keynes' Employment Function and the Gratuitous Phillips Curve Disaster'
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2130421
This guy is funny (and actually rather clueless, Summers is much better
) defender of "Flat Earth" theory:
== quote ==
A related criticism of macroeconomics is that it ignores financial factors.
Macroeconomists supposedly failed to anticipate the crisis because they
were enamored by models where financial markets and institutions were absent,
as all financing was assumed to be efficient (De Grawe, 2009, Skidelsky,
2009). The field would be in denial if it continued to ignore these macro-financial
links.
One area where macroeconomists have perhaps more of an influence is in
monetary policy. Central banks hire more PhD economists than any other policy
institution, and in the United States, the current and past chair of the
Federal Reserve are distinguished academic macroeconomists, as have been
several members of the FOMC over the years. In any given week, there are
at least one conference and dozens of seminars hosted at central banks all
over the world where the latest academic research is discussed. The speeches
of central bank governors refer to academic papers in macroeconomics more
than those by any other policymaker.
... ... ...
A separate criticism of macroeconomic policy advice accuses it of being
politically biased. Since the early days of the field, with Keynes and the
Great Depression, macroeconomics was associated with aggressive and controversial
policies and with researchers that wore other hats as public intellectuals.
Even more recently, during the rational expectations microfoundations revolution
of the 1970s, early papers had radical policy recommendations, like the
result that all systematic aggregate-demand policy is ineffective, and some
leading researchers had strong political views. Romer (2016) criticizes
modern macroeconomics for raising questions about what should be obvious
truths, like the effect of monetary policy on output. He lays blame on the
influence that Edward Prescott, Robert Lucas and Thomas Sargent had on field.
Krugman (2009) in turn, claims the problem of macroeconomics is ideology,
and in particular points to the fierce battles between different types of
macroeconomists in the 1970s and 1980s, described by Hall (1976) in terms
of saltwater versus freshwater camps.
...Macroeconomists, instead, are asked to routinely produce forecasts
to guide fiscal and monetary policy, and are perhaps too eager to comply.
"Is something really wrong with macroeconomics? - Ricardo Reis"
I appreciate that the author thinks the solution is to have young people
look at economics with fresh eyes to bring up new approaches this is a quote
when describing how they pick fresh young economists to go on a tour and
present their findings:
"the choices are arguably not biased in the direction of a particular
field, although they are most likely all in the mainstream tradition"
unfortunately the mainstream tradition is full of biase and restrictions
about what is allow to be considered and what is not so if all you allow
are people who are expanding on the "mainstream tradition" I think you are
severely restricting yourself further a lot of good ideas from the past
have been discarded, not allowed, ridiculed, not really analyzed or expanded
upon.... presented or taught or represented by people who have never studied
the ideas directly got them third hand or 5th hand , from people who misrepresent
the ideas in the first place
want fresh new ideas? go back to the beginning of economics, understand
over and over what the founds say , go read Adam Smith directly, read the
generally theory by Keynes directly don't just assume the verion samuelson
gave us of Keynes represents what he actually said, or Hansen or hicks,
or what ever nonsense they are passing along today as "what Keynes said"
reevaluation the who field over and over
And yea, study over and over the current teachings so you really understand
it intuitively don't allow magical thinking to let you "pretend" you got
it don't accept that its impossible to really understand it and "that's
just what the equations show" understand the limitations, figure out when
our fearless leaders and "great minds" and elder statesman of economics
are "overplaying their hand" and concluding more than they can this is hard
work and it takes dedication and don't assume that econometrics is the only
real economics and that theory is "unprovable" or "always subjective" because
without theory there is no econometrics, there is just a bunch of meaningless
numbers
so yea we can use fresh young minds taking a new look at things but we
will nowhere if all we allow is that "they are most likely all in the mainstream
tradition"
I'm not a professional economist, but almost every time I see a "Phillips Curve", I'm
reminded how badly understood it is and how poorly economics performs as a scientific
discipline. This area needs a complete rethink. This article above is not that rethink,
though I great appreciated the discussion about the perilous state of workers' rights prior
to the 20th century.
There is a Phillips Curve but it's probably not what you think. For the U.S. at least,
there's empirical evidence that the true relationship is between unemployment and subsequent
REAL wage inflation (not nominal). Even here one must be careful, for the link is not that
strong. And real wage growth could also be productivity-related… but productivity
growth itself might also be a function of labor scarcity. When a population desires to get
more work done with fewer hands, innovation favors productivity.
For some charts showing various examples of valid and invalid "Phillips Curves", including
a persuasive graph of the unemployment/real wage inflation curve, see these links:
"... I argue here that it's the abuse of mathematics by Neoclassical economists -- who practice what I have dubbed "Mythematics" rather than Mathematics--and that some phenomena are uncovered by mathematical logic that can't be discovered by verbal logic alone. ..."
"... A lady in the audience named Barb Jacobson suggested that using the name Neo-Classical gives it a certain degree of cache and wants you guys to start calling it for what it is: "Scorched Earth Economics." What a great name to use and doesn't it ring true? ..."
This is the brief talk I gave at a conference celebrating 25 years of the
Critical Realist seminar series at Cambridge University. Critical realists argue against the
use of mathematics in economics; I argue here that it's the abuse of mathematics by Neoclassical
economists -- who practice what I have dubbed "Mythematics" rather than Mathematics--and that some
phenomena are uncovered by mathematical logic that can't be discovered by verbal logic alone.
I give the example of my own model of Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis, which revealed
the possibility of a "Great Moderation" preceding a "Great Recession" before either event had happened.
David Milburn, September 12, 2015 at 9:38 am
Steve,
Last week Prof Bill Mitchell was in London where he gave a talk on re-framing the language
used in the media that carried on the myth of the mainstream groupthink. A lady in the audience
named Barb Jacobson suggested that using the name Neo-Classical gives it a certain degree of
cache and wants you guys to start calling it for what it is: "Scorched Earth Economics." What
a great name to use and doesn't it ring true? Barb Jacobson is spot on!
Sue Madden, September 13, 2015 at 8:28 am
Hi Steve,
I was really amused to see an interview a while back in the New Scientist, with the "research
chief" (!!) at the B of E. If you haven't seen it, you really must:
Opinion Interview with Andy Haldane: "Sackcloth and Ashes on Thread needle Street" New Scientist
25 March 2015
Corbyn was elected leader!!!! Now the sparks will fly. At least a public debate worthy of
the name might at last be heard in our sad country.
Thanks for your work in trying to enlighten us!!
Sue.
"... That is exactly what makes macro a pseudoscience (as Cassidy called it "Utopian economics".) You can't talk about economics ignoring existence of finance, because finance is an elephant in the room. A church of efficient stochastic equilibrium and an invisible hand that drives economics to it (the hand of God) is junk science, and always was. ..."
"macro rightly got a lot of stick by largely ignoring the role of finance,"
That is exactly what makes macro a pseudoscience (as Cassidy called it "Utopian economics".)
You can't talk about economics ignoring existence of finance, because finance is an elephant in
the room. A church of efficient stochastic equilibrium and an invisible hand that drives economics
to it (the hand of God) is junk science, and always was.
As much as I admire the mathematics, its use in macro is perverted and unscientific because
it relies on unrealistic assumptions. Its all pure mathiness.
Most of terminology that neoclassical economy introduced smells "fraud" or at least is detached
from reality. "Output gap" and related notion "potential output" can serve as an example. Look
at WWII production. For example, even potential output of a single plant (let's say three shift
work and full utilization of equipment) is pretty convoluted notion as there is a high level of
dependence on suppliers and somewhere typically "bottleneck" exists that prevent the factory achieving
this input. Still Hjalmar Schacht achieved wonders during WWII by just ordering German factories
to continue producing without waiting for orders to come.
== quote ==
Moreover, Keynes [1936, p. 177, 179] had denounced Walras's approach as wrong when he wrote
"Now the analysis of the previous chapters [of The General Theory] made it plain that this
account [in Walras] of the matter must be erroneous .this [Walrasian system] is a nonsense
theory".
== end of quote ==
And even worse, like most neoliberal economists, he tends to ignore Hyman Minsky important
contribution to understanding of source of instability in capitalist economics.
That fact alone IMHO makes his lectures junk science.
I remember that during 2008 events somebody called Bernanke not a specialist on Great Depression,
but a charlatan, who tried to explain Great Depression using neoclassic economics.
"I acknowledge that macro rightly got a lot of stick by largely ignoring the role of finance,
but I also point out that the poor recovery has involved a vindication of the core macro model:
austerity is a bad idea at the ZLB, QE was not inflationary and interest rates on government
debt did not rise but fell."
No shit Dick Tracy. Look at the devastation of the US of O (The United States of Oligarchy).
Let's join the Military in defending the shipping lanes, 3 hots and a cot.
I'm glad the core macro-model has been vindicated.
Is it my imagination or are the crazies around here getting crazier, and becoming increasingly
unable to even begin talking about macro in a serious way.
I mean, I don't mind a bit of vituperation or even limited amounts of incoherence and insanity,
if it is accompanied by at least earnest attempts to have substantive discussions. But it just
feels like the essential substance has become increasingly rare.
libezkova -> Sanjait... , -1
"Is it my imagination or are the crazies around here getting crazier, and becoming increasingly
unable to even begin talking about macro in a serious way."
If you think that neoliberal economists and their low-level supporters like some members of
this blog are crazy you are wrong. They are corrupt the same way as Mafia members are corrupt.
That's why they are unable to discuss economics in a serious way. Only "religious dogma" based
way is permitted.
Neoliberal Jesuits will defend their "flat earth" theory and ostracize heretics as long as
financial oligarchy is in power, because their well being is dependent on it, and they are paid
by financial oligarchy to do the job.
When neoliberalism was hatched it deliberately emulated methods of influence used by Communists
(and Austrians were intimately aware of them, because the country experienced communist revolution,
which failed) in trying to expand their influence at university departments and by creating think
tanks. Those subversive methods proved way too successful and they are now really entrenched:
neoclassic economic thinking permeates the society to the same or higher degree as Marx political
economy in the USSR.
See LSE discussion "Masters of the Universe: Hayek, Friedman, and the Birth of Neoliberal Politics
"
I think that that one of the few better and more productive pathway of discussing economic events
is the one that stems from Hyman Minsky work with its idea of positive feedback loops in economics
with one from financial system that periodically destabilizes the capitalist economy and create
a financial crisis.
The neoclassical concept of equilibrium is way too primitive and attempts to build economics
as branch of physics. It should be discarded for good, as the way it is used now is close to pure
charlatanism.
We also have an uncertainty principle here as even the suggestion of the intervention can change
the dynamics of the system (look at "Fed talk" )
The role of the state now is so huge that any talk about the economy achieving equilibrium
by itself is fraud outside few special cases. And actually the introduction of neoliberalism was
the "revolution from above" -- a coup d'état, if you wish.
== quote ==
In microeconomic theory, cost-minimization by consumers and by firms implies the existence
of supply and demand correspondences for which market clearing equilibrium prices exist, if
there are large numbers of consumers and producers. Under convexity assumptions or under some
marginal-cost pricing rules, each equilibrium will be Pareto efficient: In large economies,
non-convexity also leads to quasi-equilibria that are nearly efficient.
However, the concept of market equilibrium has been criticized by Austrians, post-Keynesians
and others, who object to applications of microeconomic theory to real-world markets, when
such markets are not usefully approximated by microeconomic models. Heterodox economists assert
that micro-economic models rarely capture reality.
== end of quote ==
Steve Keen in one who uses and try to develop further Minsky concepts and he was one of the
few who predicted the financial crash on 2008. IMHO he should get more respect and coverage at
the expense of neoliberal stooges like Krugman.
Ha-Joon Chang, Philip Mirowski, Joseph Stiglitz, Richard Koo, Yanis Varoufakis, Noam Chomsky
all have interesting and IMHO more realistic ideas about how the modern economy really function
and what can be more appropriate ways to model it.
We should reject masked by mathiness typical neoclassical junk that is mainstream now.
In The Cultural Contradictions of Capitalism -a canonical work of economic sociology in the 1970s
and '80s-Daniel Bell argued that the productive and consumptive sides of capitalism had fallen into
contradiction. Capitalism continued to rely on the Protestant ethic of sobriety and delayed gratification
in the sphere of production, yet, contradictorily, had come to rely on modernist hedonism and credit
purchasing in the sphere of consumption. Modern capitalism needed people to be sober by day and swingers
by night. What is more, the displacement of the Protestant ethic by hedonism, Bell argued, was primarily
the work of capitalism itself. Its mass production urbanized the population and created an economy
of abundance, the continuation of which relied on ever increasing demand, stimulated through marketing
and the extension of credit. This pulled the middle class away from small town, Protestant values.
In other words, capitalism was undermining the conditions of its own existence. The economy's contradictory
need for both prudence and prodigality from its participants was "the deepest challenge to the society."
I first read and taught Bell as a graduate student in the 1990s. Already by then the urgency of
Bell's thesis had receded. Capitalism had weathered this putative internal contradiction for a generation,
with no signs of implosion. The perceived threat to American capitalism at the time came instead
from the outside, from Japan. Japan's integrated industrial policy, "quality circles," and knack
for translating American technological advances into desirable consumer products had created an economic
juggernaut that seemed to be rolling right over American industry. It seemed emblematic when President
George H. W. Bush led a pugnacious trade delegation to Japan in 1992 only to fall ill and, at a state
dinner, cast the craw and faint into the lap of the Japanese prime minister.
Japan's economic miracle, moreover, could itself be read as putting Bell's thesis in question.
At that time, the routine of the Japanese salaryman was to work very long and grave hours at the
office followed by almost daily late-night drinking parties and the occasional group outing to the
hot spring baths, the night girls, or the geisha: sober by day, swinger by night. This behavior was
not seen as contradictory. Nor did it have to be. The compartmentalization of value spheres and conduct
is commonplace in most human societies; the demand for consistency is the real anomaly. The case
could thus be made that Bell's sense of foreboding was but an artifact of the American tendency to
misconstrue as a human norm the peculiarly Puritan aspiration for consistency of personality across
all spheres, rationalizing all life according to one supreme value. Setting aside that assumption,
it seemed to me not so much that American capitalism was becoming self-contradictory as that it was
becoming more "Japanese," with the undergraduate ethos of "work hard play hard" as its training ground.
Whatever the shortcomings of Bell's specific thesis, however, one should not dismiss the more
general possibility Bell raises of a system-threatening contradiction between a cultural system and
an economic system. In particular, there can be a contradiction between a society's economic ideology,
or cultural system of economic legitimation, and its economic reality. I argue that we are experiencing
this in an acute way under neoliberalism-a contradiction between the market ideology neoliberalism
espouses and the corporate reality it fosters.
Any system exhibiting a contradiction between its legitimation system and its reality is set up
for sudden delegitimation. But in the case of neoliberalism, the contradiction does more. Neoliberalism
was born in reaction against totalitarian statism, and matured at the University of Chicago into
a program of state-reduction that was directed not just against the totalitarian state and the socialist
state but also (and especially) against the New Deal regulatory and welfare state. Neoliberalism
sought to privatize public services, deregulate private services, and shrink social spending.
1 It is thus unusual among ideologies in that it does not seek to rationalize the
status quo. It is a self-consciously reactionary ideology that seeks to roll back the status quo
and institutionalize (or, on its own understanding, re-institutionalize) the "natural" principles
of the market. In other words, it is transformative. But the contradiction between its individualist
ideals and our corporate reality means that the effort to institutionalize it, oblivious to this
contradiction, has induced deep dysfunction in our corporate system, producing weakened growth, intense
inequality, and coercion. This makes neoliberalism's position all the more precarious. And when the
ideological support of a system collapses-as appears to be happening with neoliberalism-then either
the system will collapse, or new levels of coercion and manipulation will be deployed to maintain
it. This appears to be the juncture at which we have arrived.
The Corporation as a Franchised Government
For the contradiction between neoliberalism and the corporation to be clear, it is necessary to
say a few words about the nature of the business corporation.
The business corporation, like any corporation, is a little government. Its deepest roots run
back to the municipality of Rome, the first corporation in law, which was at the same time the
civitas , or Roman state. More proximately, the business corporation was modeled on the incorporated
medieval town, and it carries forward its central legal features.
(1) As is true of the town, a corporate firm's assets are not owned by natural persons, but
by an abstract legal entity -the "artificial person" of the corporation, which assumes the legal
position of sole proprietor. This fact should immediately explode the most insidious myth about the
business corporation, that it is owned by its stockholders. The whole point of the legal form is
to transfer ownership of the business assets to this legal entity, which in principle "never dies."
This prevents investors from pulling these assets out and liquidating the firm, and it allows all
economic liabilities generated by the firm to be shifted from natural persons to this entity. Since
the legal entity owns the assets of the business corporation, the stockholders obviously do not.
In the case of a university or other incorporated nonprofit, it is obvious that the assets are
owned by a legal entity, since there are no stockholders to whom one could ascribe ownership.
The business corporation, however, is commonly read through the lens of the partnership (due in good
measure to the efforts of the neoliberals, as we will see), as if the stockholders were a species
of partner and thus co-owners of the firm. Yet this is precisely what they are not, lacking the ownership
rights, the liabilities, and the responsibilities of partners.
The misconception that stockholders are owners akin to partners in a partnership seems to stem
from two things. First, stockholders have purchased stock, which is imagined to be tantamount to
acquiring part ownership. But stock is just a financial instrument-a special form of good that a
corporation is privileged to sell. And purchasing a good sold by a firm-whether stocks, blocks, or
socks-does not give one ownership rights in the firm. In the United States, as in most countries,
stockholders, whether acting individually or jointly, cannot use, lend out, exclude others from,
collateralize, sell, or alienate corporate assets. In other words, stock ownership does not convey
any rights of ownership over the firm or its assets. And this has been true from the
beginning (despite legal ideology sometimes to the contrary). Stockholders have no legal claim whatsoever
on these assets except at bankruptcy, when they are last in line as heirs, not first in line as owners.
Nor do stockholders have a legal right to profits or dividends. Dividends are issued at the discretion
of the board-as Apple demonstrated quarter after quarter to its long-suffering stockholders.
The second source of the confusion is that stockholders appear to have ultimate control of the
firm, and ultimate control is a right of owners. This view, however, rests on a double misconception.
First, while ownership implies control rights, control rights do not necessarily imply ownership.
If they did, the boards of charitable foundations would be the owners, as would the bishops and elders
of churches, the principals of schools, the mayors of towns, and the presidents and parliaments of
countries. As this should make clear, control can derive from jurisdictional authority no less than
from ownership. Therefore, one cannot infer shareholder ownership from whatever control rights shareholders
might have. Second, stockholders do not in fact have any control rights, whether proximate
or ultimate, over the firm-at least not in the United States nor in most other countries. In the
business corporation, as in the university, the ultimate right to control the property and to create,
fill, and prescribe the duties of all positions lies with the board, as is expressly stated in the
corporate charter or general incorporation statute. (Holders of a majority of the stock must consent
to a firm's liquidation or its merger with another firm, because this involves the death of the firm.
But they have no right to initiate or force these actions.)
It is true that the holders of common stock (although not the holders of preferred stock or other
nonvoting shares) get to elect all members of the board other than the members of the first board.
And this appears to give them ultimate control. If they are well organized, it will indeed likely
give them de facto control. But this is not a legally enforceable control right . Imagine
that all the common stock is held by a single stockholder, who therefore can place on the board whomever
she will. If this board nonetheless subsequently decides to defy her, all she can do is wait for
the next board election and replace it-just as the citizens of a town must wait for the next election
to replace their city council or mayor (assuming no criminal activity). She cannot overrule the board,
nor remove the offending board members, nor sue them (all things she could do if she were the owner
and they her legal agent). All control rights lie with the board (just as all control rights lie
with a sovereign parliament, not with the citizenry that elects it).
It might yet be thought that, although the right of election does not convey genuine control rights,
it is itself evidence of ownership. But this is not correct either-as if the cardinals who elect
the pope "own" the papacy, or the citizens who elect the mayor or president "own" the town or the
state and its assets. True owners don't get a vote, but a veto, which is why the governance rule
for general partnerships (whose members are true owners of the firm's assets) is unanimity
on all major questions affecting the firm. The right of shareholders to participate in board elections
is a charter right, not a property right.
In light of this, it is correct to argue, as did Adolf Berle and Gardner Means in their 1932 tour
de force The Modern Corporation and Private Property , that the modern corporation exhibits
a "separation of ownership and control." But Berle and Means were wrong to suggest that this separation
occurred gradually, as shareholders became more numerous and geographically dispersed. Rather, the
separation is inherent to the corporate form. Ownership is with the entity; control is with the board,
which acts on behalf of the entity. What Berle and Means meant to underscore is that all but the
largest shareholders have lost meaningful participation in the election of the board, and thus have
lost their influence over it, leaving hired managers a free hand. But properly put, this is not a
separation of ownership and control (which obtains regardless of the shareholders' level of
participation), but a separation of shareholder and de facto control, or more precisely,
a separation of shareholder and "influence" through election. Control of a corporation is simply
not a function of who "owns" it, any more than control of a town is. (If it were, control would rest
with the legal entity; but an abstract entity cannot act and a fortiori cannot control.) Rather,
control rights are established by the charter.
As noted above, the point of having assets owned by a legal entity is to prevent assets from being
pulled out by investors, forcing partial or complete liquidation of the firm. That is the Achilles
heel of the general partnership as a business form. In contrast, with a corporation, assets are locked
in permanently and can be specialized to the production process, allowing for increased scale and
productivity. Historically, this is the main advantage of the corporate form for business. Marx was
thus right to hold that bourgeois property would become a fetter on the productive powers of capital,
to be burst asunder and replaced with socialized property. But it has been socialized primarily at
the level of the corporation, not at the level of the state. Corporate property is a form of socialized
property.
(2) The next legal feature that the business corporation carried over from the town is that, like
the officers of a town, the managers and investors of a business corporation are exempt from liability
for corporate debts , and in practice almost always escape liability for corporate harms, or
torts. This is a second advantage of the corporate form for business. Debts and damages are paid
by the corporate entity, not by natural persons. Here, however, an important distinction must be
noted between the corporate town and the corporate firm. The officers of the town are elected by
those over whom they rule and upon whom they act. Therefore, if they cause harm, it is at their own
political risk, regardless of their protection from normal economic and legal risk. The officers
of the corporate firm, in contrast, neither rule over nor act upon those who elect them, but rather
rule over disenfranchised employees and act on numerous third parties. This relieves those who control
corporate firms of most of their personal incentive to avoid causing harm when it is otherwise profitable.
(3) If neither the shareholders nor the managers own the assets of the corporate firm, whence
derives management's authority? Like a town, every corporation receives from the state a jurisdiction
within which its officers legislate and rule. A university's board of trustees, for example, legislates
and rules over the property and personnel of the university-an authority it receives from the state,
via the corporate charter. Similarly, in a business corporation, the board of directors legislates
and rules over the property and personnel of the firm, even though the directors may not own any
of it. This authority of the board, too, is delegated to it by the state, via a charter. It does
not come from the shareholders (who, although they select the occupants of the seats on the board
going forward, do not create the board's structure, procedures, powers, or duties). Indeed, the board
is created and begins to operate the business before shares are even issued. The board creates the
shareholders; shareholders do not create the board. And prior to that, the state creates the board,
and endows it with its authority. This does not make the board and the firm it controls an agent
of the state. Rather, it is the state's franchisee. To spell this out: the corporate firm gets its
"personhood" (its right to own and contract as a separate legal entity), its liability regime, its
governance structure, and its governing authority from the state, but it hires its own personnel
and secures its own financing. This is a franchising relationship, and for this reason, I refer to
corporations as "franchise governments."
2
The Neoliberal Corporation
The above exposition of corporations as governing authorities franchised by the civil government
is, with slight modification, the classic view of corporations, as expounded, for example, in Blackstone's
Commentaries on the Laws of England . "None but the king can make a corporation," which the
king does either directly or through delegation to others such as the legislature. The authority
the corporation wields, Blackstone continues, is a "franchise" of the king, analogous in this respect
to the authority that the feudal vassal wields, also delegated from the king. Like lordships, corporations
are part of the overall system of government established by the king.
3 And this is part of the reason that classical liberals, including Adam Smith, were
so suspicious of corporations and wished to circumscribe them.
4 They recognized that they were not part of the free market, but represented state
interventions in the market.
This is, of course, not the view of corporations espoused by neoliberals. The problem that the
corporation posed for neoliberals, when neoliberalism first emerged as a self-conscious ideological
movement at the end of World War II, is that one could hardly put over a free market agenda if one's
leading business actors were seen as state-created entities. So neoliberals had to retheorize the
corporation as a creation of private contract (or at least something that could in principle be created
by private contract). Accordingly, stockholders-rechristened "shareholders"-were theorized as owners
who hire a board to act on their behalf. (Again, remember how wrong this is; shareholders are not
owners of corporate assets, and the board gets its authority before they even exist.) In other words,
neoliberals cast the corporation as a glorified partnership, to be operated in the interest of its
imagined owners and principals, the stockholders.
This account superficially squares the corporation with market principles of private property
and contract. But the social cost has been high. The institutionalization of this account in recent
decades has transformed both the boardroom and the workplace, producing what I call the "neoliberal
corporation." And this is responsible for many of the economic inequities and dislocations that plague
us today.
First it transformed the boardroom. Starting in the 1980s, under the influence of the Chicago
school of "law and economics"-one of the founding strongholds of neoliberal thought-both law and
norms changed to reorient corporations towards maximizing "shareholder value." This was done partly
by empowering stockholders in the boardroom-although unfortunately at a time when the character of
the typical stockholder was changing, from an individual long-term investor to an institutional investor
(a pension fund, mutual fund, hedge fund, or private equity fund) working under quarterly profit
imperatives. Executives who didn't look out for this new (and impatient) Number One were liable to
find themselves replaced.
Even more effectively, this reorientation was done by bribing executives with compensation packages
heavily skewed towards stock and stock options. A generation ago, stock compensation was an insignificant
part of CEO pay. Today, in Fortune 500 companies, it constitutes over 80 percent of a CEO's pay.
5 In the tinted view of human psychology typical of Chicago School neoliberalism,
it is assumed that CEOs will strive narrowly to maximize their personal income, not the welfare of
the firm. Therefore, the Chicago neoliberal reasons, structure their pay so that, in maximizing it,
they simultaneously maximize (short-term) stockholder returns.
Two effective means of quickly juicing a stock price are to increase dividend payments and to
buy back stock. As William Lazonick details, stock buybacks-that is, corporate repurchases of its
previous stock issues, which decrease the supply of outstanding stock, and thus increase its price-have
become so popular with executives that buybacks now consume on average over 50 percent of the profits
of S&P 500 firms. In some years, the buybacks of some firms have topped 100 percent of corporate
profits.
6 That is, the companies spent more on repurchasing their stock than they earned for
the year, which is done by cutting into their reserves, taking on debt, or selling off assets. Increasing
dividend payments, even when profits are not rising, similarly robs the future to pay off the present.
This is what I call "vampire management," sucking out the accumulated life force of the company to
feed current stockholders. Others have likened it to cannibalism-of stockholders eating the corporate
body. What it means, in Bell's terms, is that the hedonism and immediate gratification of the rentier
has gained control over the arena of production.
The societal consequences have been overwhelmingly negative. On the one hand, it means that the
revenues of the firm have been massively reallocated, with much of what used to be shared with workers
now disgorged to shareholders and executives. Wages stagnated even when productivity continued to
climb. This is at the root of our growing economic inequality. But it also affects the rate of economic
growth itself. Production is still an arena wherein focus on the long term-that is, delayed gratification-works
best. But the refocus on short-term share price means that research and development get cut, reinvestment
in plant expansion gets cut, and worker training gets cut, because their payoffs are not immediate.
The result is slower growth. What is more, the pressure against worker training encourages, as an
alternative, the de-skilling of the production process, which in turn facilitates the offshoring
of jobs, further suppressing domestic wages.
In short, when the short-term focus of the hedonist gains control of the arena of production,
all lose out in the long term, but the worker loses out disproportionately, in both
long term and short term. There is no longer a "cultural contradiction" between production and consumption,
as both are now ruled by an ethos of immediate gratification. It turns out we were better off when
there was a contradiction.
Second, neoliberal retheorization of the corporation has transformed the workplace. As part of
this retheorization, neoliberals adopted a newfangled principal-agent theory indebted to game theory,
according to which principal and agent always act opportunistically towards one another. In the neoliberal
view, shareholders are assumed to be the principals (rather than the corporate entity and its authorized
purpose), and the employees-whether top managers or line employees-are assumed to be their agents,
who will shirk if left to their own vices. Fortunately for top managers, boards primarily use the
carrot of stock and stock options to align the managers' interests with the shareholders (although
this is arguably the most expensive way to motivate managers). But there aren't enough carrots
to go around. So line workers get the stick-that is, an increasingly coercive workplace with electronic
monitoring, shaming, and so forth. This of course decreases their actual commitment to their employer
and, in a self-fulfilling prophecy, can turn them into actual shirkers.
In sum, the rise of the neoliberal corporation creates a slow-growth, high-inequality, high-coercion
economy.
Neoliberalism and the New Scarcity
What neoliberalism has done to the realm of production must also be placed in the context of what
neoliberalism has done to the realm of consumption. This can be summarized by saying that neoliberalism
reimposes the logic of scarcity on the economy of abundance. It does so in several ways.
First, as just explained, are the distributive effects of neoliberalism. Workers are deprived
of their productivity gains, with almost all of it conferred upon the executives and the rentiers.
So their purchasing power remains stagnant even as wealth explodes all around them. This is both
a material and psychological reimposition of scarcity.
Second are the privatization effects of neoliberalism. Neoliberalism shrinks the sphere
of public services and "privatizes"-or rather, corporatizes-the provision of the public services
that remain. In most instances, corporate provision has proven to be more expensive than public provision,
since the rentier investor needs his cut. Think of privately operated toll roads, or Chicago's privately
operated parking. And it shifts the cost of service from the wealthy taxpayer to the general public
of users, which pays cost plus profit. Relatedly, college has gotten so expensive, as its own managerial
costs have exploded while state legislatures have cut public funding, that parents' expectation of
a "return on investment" becomes understandable. Students feel forced into the moneymaking occupations,
rather than artistic or care occupations, because of student debt, and because essential goods increasingly
must be purchased, including education for the students' own anticipated children. The tightening
of personal bankruptcy laws increases this pressure. There is limited public provision of the basics
to liberate one for risk-taking, including entrepreneurial risk-taking, and fewer second chances
if one gets in financial trouble. So even the youth become extremely risk averse. With fewer going
into the helping professions and creative professions, there is less help for those in need, and
an impoverishment of the culture.
Third are the monopoly effects of neoliberalism. One of the first targets of the Chicago
neoliberals, both on the law faculty and the economics faculty, was the country's antitrust regime.
Breaking up monopolies was just one more unnecessary government intervention in the market. Given
enough time, the market would itself undermine monopolies, as new entrants brought disruptive technologies
to bear. Their recommended rollback of antitrust enforcement was finally institutionalized under
President Reagan.
Unfortunately, neoliberal argumentation on this point was always tendentious. Firms naturally
pursue "pricing power," and when industry concentration can occur through acquisition even more easily
than through organic growth, it is foolhardy to imagine that new entrants will keep markets competitive.
They can simply be bought out. Indeed, in a corporate economy, this can be done even against the
will of the target company's management. And sure enough, monopoly has returned to the United States
with a vengeance, as Barry Lynn and Philip Longman of New America have argued. Commodity food producers
are hit especially hard. Their productive inputs-seeds and sprays, for example-are in the hands of
a few suppliers. Meanwhile, their productive outputs-chicken, beef, pork, corn, soy, dairy, and so
on-often have only one local buyer. A few enormous processors operate as monopsonists with respect
to the food producers, and monopolists with respect to the consumer, lowering incomes on the one
end, and raising prices on the other. Monopoly pricing pervades other consumer markets as well-cable
television and Internet service, eyewear, beer, breakfast cereal, pet food, department stores and
office supply stores, and so on-where monopoly is often concealed behind a veneer of brand diversity.
Standing at the end of supply chains riddled with unchecked monopolies, the consumer finds the reach
of her dollar considerably foreshortened. Lynn and Longman also argue persuasively that monopoly
has suppressed innovation and job creation. Monopoly is thus a double burden, producing fewer good
incomes in an economy of overpriced goods.
Fourth are the globalization effects of neoliberalism. For those who control corporations,
the new mobility of corporate capital has been a race to the top, as national jurisdictions compete
to offer ever more favorable terms of operation for those who control. For everyone else, that means
a race to the bottom, as corporate tax rates are cut along with environmental regulations, health
and safety regulations, and worker wages. The decline in tax receipts means a decline of funding
for what still remains in the public sphere, even as the other declines mean these funds are more
needed. It may be the case that there are productive efficiencies to be gained through the mobility
of capital-although as we've seen, if this comes at the expense of long-term investments in productivity,
this may not be true on balance. But even supposing there are, the costs and benefits of these productivity
gains are being distributed most unequally.
In this new neoliberal world, the economic drive elicited by the siren song of hedonism is replaced
by the spur of deprivation, as wages fail to keep up with the cost of living.
7 American households have the highest credit card debt load in the world (over $6,000
on average, but over $16,000 on average among those that have credit card debt), which is perhaps
not surprising given that over half of Americans live paycheck to paycheck, with an estimated 62
percent lacking liquid funds sufficient to cover a $1,000 emergency expenditure.
8 Debt that was racked up to live large becomes debt racked up to stay afloat. It
is all the same to the creditor rentier. The economic ideal of the financier, banker, and rentier
in general is that all purchases, whether of private individuals or governments, be made on credit,
so that all income streams are channeled to themselves, the debt holders, to pay interest and principal.
Why the debts are being contracted is immaterial.
In sum, the neoliberal effort to square the corporation with free market principles of private
property, contract, and self-interest has had the consequence of increasing inequality, coercion,
and mediocrity in the corporation. And since the neoliberal push for "privatization" really means
corporatization, these maladies of the neoliberal corporation are pushed ever further into American
life. The American worker and consumer is then undermined further by the exodus of capital abroad
and the return of monopoly at home. Neoliberalism has thus created a world that is almost the inverse
of the world Bell was diagnosing. The short-term orientation of the hedonist has been imposed on
the production process, while the logic of scarcity has been reimposed upon the working class and
middle class in the sphere of consumption, even as productivity continues to rise, but is siphoned
off by plutocrats. It is an economy of abundance for the few, but of scarcity and coercion for the
many.
There is no virtue today in poverty and abstinence. Work, as Bell notes, is no longer proof of
salvation, nor an end in itself as a "calling," but a means to consumption and social status. Stagnant
or declining wages, especially when set next to the exploding wealth of those at the top, is therefore
only experienced as great frustration. And so one gets the kind of elections we have been seeing
around the world.
The Contradictions of Neoliberalism
Because modern economies are corporate, not atomistic, there is a yawning chasm between the legitimating
ideals of neoliberalism and the reality it creates. And this chasm is even wider than first appears
if the true nature of the business corporation is kept in view. For example:
(1) Neoliberalism idealizes an individualistic, private property economy. But the economy it actually
promotes is a socialized, corporate property economy, where property is controlled by, but unowned
by, natural persons, with all the problems of moral hazard that this raises.
(2) Neoliberalism idealizes a free market economy, with minimal state intervention, beyond protecting
property and contract. Yet the economy it promotes is dominated by state-created legal entities.
State intervention makes the corporation.
(3) Neoliberalism holds that the state is a sphere of coercion, while the market is a sphere of
freedom. But in most contexts, the state only makes general laws that must be followed as one pursues
one's own ends. In contrast, the corporation, for which most people must now work, issues
direct commands to its ends, and under neoliberalism it has only become more coercive in seeing
that these commands are carried out.
(4) Neoliberalism promises to increase economic growth. But corporations reconstructed on neoliberal
lines retard growth, in favor of redirecting revenues to those who control and finance.
(5) Neoliberalism advocates an ethic of individual responsibility. If you fail in the market,
you should accept the consequences, and not expect the wealth generated by others to be redistributed
to you. But thanks to the principle of limited liability, the corporate form spares those who control
the corporation from the legal or direct economic consequences of their actions. The corporation
is institutionalized irresponsibility. In the neoliberal economy, individual responsibility is imposed
on the weak (with a downsized social safety net, tightened personal bankruptcy laws, etc.); freedom
from responsibility is enjoyed by the strong-those who invest, and those who control.
It is hard to exaggerate how far neoliberal ideology is contradicted by our economic reality.
The contradiction ultimately stems from the failure of neoliberals to understand the corporate form,
and thus a failure to understand the corporate economy. Indeed, it means a failure to understand
the modern world as a whole, which is fundamentally corporate in its construction. Its corporatization
began in medieval Europe in the wake of the recovery of the Roman law of corporations. The corporate
form first transformed the semi-subordinate bodies of the Church (its monasteries, cathedral chapters,
confraternities, chantries), and eventually the Church as a whole, all modeled as corporations. It
then transformed civil society (its towns, universities, and guilds). And then it transformed the
state (inspiring the positing of an abstract and sovereign juridical person, the "state," distinct
from the ruler).
Briefly, it looked like that would be the end of the line for the corporate form. Rhetoric, and
to an extent, reality, suggested that the corporate form would be swept away, with corporate rights
replaced by the rights of man. In the Age of Enlightenment, corporate bodies came under attack as
remnants of the ancien régime-examples of legal privilege obnoxious to the demand for equality under
the law. At the Constitutional Convention, America's founders, fearing the rise of monopoly and a
monied aristocracy, refused to grant the power of incorporation to the federal government.
9 The French Constitution of 1791 went so far as to dissolve all corporations for
being "injurious to liberty and equality of rights." But, in America, federal incorporation was later
held to be an implied power, and, in France, the corporate ban would prove to be short-lived.
The problem with neoliberalism is that it construes the idealized, individualist world of eighteenth-century
rhetoric as a good approximation of twenty-first-century reality. But in the nineteenth-century United
States especially, a new corporate age was birthed as the corporate form made its final and most
potent conquest, transforming the business firm and economy. In our "social imaginary," to use a
coinage of Charles Taylor, the United States is the individualist society sans pareil -the
most modern of modern societies because it is the most thorough in its realization of the individualist
impulses of the Renaissance and the radical Reformation. Yet, in reality, it is now the most corporate
of societies, teeming with franchised governments large and small: towns, state governments, and
the federal government (franchised by "the People"), but also and especially our myriad for-profit
and non-profit corporations (business firms, churches, foundations, and other "non-governmental,"
yet actually quite governmental, associations).
Our ability to come to grips with our current predicament requires as its first step a fundamental
reworking of our picture of modern society. Ours is not the world of Adam Smith and John Stuart Mill.
It is a world in which the means of production and the means of rule are owned by juridical entities,
not natural persons. A world wherein control is exercised by officeholders, not owners; wherein the
officeholders-of corporate government no less than of civil government-dodge direct economic and
legal responsibility for the consequences of their control; and wherein the officeholders are therefore
supposed to be guided by a fiduciary duty to the organization's authorized purposes, not by
individual self-interest. This is the world we inhabit, and it is a world that falls into dysfunction
and exploitation when neoliberal categories and prescriptions are imposed upon it.
This article originally appeared in American Affairs Volume I, Number 2 (Summer
2017): 58–71.
Notes
1 See Philip Mirowski and Dieter Plehwe, eds., The Road from Mont Pèlerin: The Making
of the Neoliberal Thought Collective (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2009).
2 For further detail on this view of corporations, see my "Beyond Public and Private:
Toward a Political Theory of the Corporation," American Political Science Review 107, no.
1 (Feb. 2013): 139–58.
3 William Blackstone, Commentaries on the Laws of England, in Four Books , vol.
1 (1753; Philadelphia: Lippincott, 1893), 297, 324; see also 180–81.
4 Adam Smith, An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations
, vol. 2 of The Glasgow Edition of the Works and Correspondence of Adam Smith (Oxford: Clarendon
Press, 1976), pt. 2, pp. 225–30, 246–47.
5 William Lazonick, "Profits without Prosperity," Harvard Business Review 92,
no. 9 (Sept. 2014): 46–55.
6 Ibid.
7 Erin El Issa, "2016 American Household Credit Card Debt Study," NerdWallet
, https://www.nerdwallet.com/blog/average-credit-card-debt-household/.
8 Ibid.; Scott Dylan, "American Credit Card Debt at Record High-Should You Be Worried?,"
Get , May 24, 2016, https://www.get.com/news/american-credit-card-debt/; Quentin Fottrell,
"Most Americans Are One Paycheck Away from the Street," MarketWatch , January 7, 2015, https://secure.marketwatch.com/story/most-americans-are-one-paycheck-away-from-the-street-2015-01-07.
9 Pauline Maier, "The Revolutionary Origins of the American Corporation," William
and Mary Quarterly 50, no. 1 (Jan. 1993): 51–84.
David Ciepley is associate professor of political science at the University of Denver. He
is the author of Liberalism in the Shadow of Totalitarianism (Harvard University Press, 2006) as
well as of "Beyond Public and Private: Toward a Political Theory of the Corporation," American Political
Science Review 107, no. 1 (February 2013): 139–58.
"... Trade liberalisation has been a significant driver of globalization over the past half century. However, global trade has slowed down in recent years. This column argues that globalization can also be driven by higher commodity prices can also drive, as commodities constitute a large fraction of global trade. This is reflected in trade volumes and commodity prices, which increased until around 2014 but have fallen since. However, commodity price-driven globalization implies lower living standards in advanced countries, as the higher commodity prices diminish the purchasing power of workers. ..."
"... See original post for references ..."
"... "His conclusions are compelling and disturbing: that developed countries are attempting to 'kick away the ladder' with which they have climbed to the top, thereby preventing developing counties from adopting policies and institutions that they themselves have used." ..."
By Daniel Gros, Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels. Originally published
at
VoxEU
Trade liberalisation has been a significant driver of globalization over the past half century.
However, global trade has slowed down in recent years. This column argues that globalization can
also be driven by higher commodity prices can also drive, as commodities constitute a large fraction
of global trade. This is reflected in trade volumes and commodity prices, which increased until around
2014 but have fallen since. However, commodity price-driven globalization implies lower living standards
in advanced countries, as the higher commodity prices diminish the purchasing power of workers.
Trade and international financial transactions have grown massively in recent decades. This phenomenon,
also called globalization, is often described as a 'mega-trend'. Business and political leaders never
tire of repeating that 'globalization' is the future, that it delivers more jobs and higher incomes.
However, more recently globalization seems to be in retreat-in 2015 trade actually fell, both in
absolute terms and relative to GDP. Does this mean globalization has gone into reverse (OECD 2016,
IMF 2015, 2016)?
In this column, I argue that the slogan 'globalization equals growth' is wrong. There is no general
economic theorem that links more trade to growth and other economic benefits. Economic theory implies
only that, under most circumstances, lower trade barriers will lead to more trade and more jobs.
The simplification, that more trade is thus always beneficial, is not warranted. If trade increases
for reasons other than the lowering of trade barriers, it is far from clear that this will benefit
everybody.
The distinction between globalization driven by lower trade barriers and increases in trade driven
by other factors is not just an academic point. It is the key to understanding why globalization
has become so unpopular in most advanced countries, and why the recent slowdown in trade is not something
to worry about.
What Drove 'Hyper-Globalization'?
The massive increase in trade flows over the last two decades has always been difficult to explain
with 'classic' causes, such as trade liberalisation lowering trade costs. Tariffs (and other trade
barriers) had of course been reduced radically in several stages in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. However,
by the late 1990s the remaining tariffs were already rather low; and many non-tariff barriers (such
as the Multi Fibre Arrangement, which had seriously limited trade in textiles) had also been eliminated.
1
Transport costs of course fell with containerisation, but this improvement had yielded most of
its benefits by the late 1990s. Estimates of the overall cost of trade based on the ratio of CIF
prices (which incorporate transport costs) and FoB prices (which do not) actually suggest that transport
costs slightly increased over the last 20 years; before1995 they had fallen almost continuously (Baldwin
and Taglioni 2004). Figure 1 shows that transport costs have fallen again very recently, but that
this coincided with a slowdown of trade – the opposite of what one would expect.
Figure 1 Word transport costs
[Imports(CIF)/Exports(FoB]-1
How can one reconcile 'hyper-globalization' (Subramanian and Kessler 2013) with stagnating tariffs
and transport costs? Baldwin (2017) provides one answer. He argues that the key driver of globalization
today is the falling price of 'transporting' ideas, as opposed to the cost of moving goods.
This contribution provides an additional, maybe complementary, explanation-higher oil (and other
commodity) prices increase both trade volumes and transport costs for goods, but not ideas. The impact
of oil prices on transport costs is clear-fuel is an important element of overall transport costs.
A sharp increase in fuel prices can more than outweigh, at least in the short to medium run, the
costs savings due to containerisation. (Cosar and Demir 2017 also argue that most of the cost savings
from the latter have been realised.)
But the key point is that higher commodity prices also automatically create more trade, because
commodities constitute a large fraction of global trade.
An Illustrative Example
Assume that one tonne of steel and ten barrels of oil are needed to produce one car. In 2002-03,
that bundle of raw materials was worth around $800, or about 5% of the value of a car priced at $16,000.
This implies that during the early 2000s, industrialised countries had to export five cars for imports
of 100 bundles of these raw materials. By 2012–13, the value of the raw materials needed for one
car increased to about $2,000, now representing about 10% of the cost of a car (prices of cars had
gone up much less). Industrialised countries thus had to export 10 cars, double the previous quantity,
for the same amount of raw material imports.
This example shows that the value of trade would double if commodity prices double. There is thus
a direct link between the growth of trade and commodity prices. Increasing commodity prices lead
to more trade (globalization), whereas falling commodity prices have the opposite effect.
An immediate objection to this example is that it looks at the value of trade, but one also finds
that over the last decades the growth of trade in volume has exceeded that of the volume of real
growth. However, this excess growth in trade volume also follows in this example-an industrialised
country would need to double its exports in volume just to pay for an unchanged volume of raw material
imports.
Since food, fuels, and raw materials make up about a quarter of global trade, the huge price movements
in raw materials, especially energy, over the last few decades, must have had a big impact on aggregate
trade figures. The run up in commodity, and especially crude oil, prices until about 2014 drove hyper-globalization,
and the fall in prices since then has now reduced globalization. There is thus little need to look
for other explanations for the recent slowdown in trade.
Figure 2 illustrates this phenomenon with three lines, each of which show three variants of the
global trade/GDP ratio. The top-most line is just the ratio of total global exports to global GDP.
It is the one that shows most globalization-trade accounted for a little over 15% of GDP in 1995,
but 25% at the peak in 2007 (an increase of almost 10 percentage points).
The middle line shows global exports of manufacturing goods as a percentage of GDP. The difference
to the first line is, of course, trade in raw materials, which increased in value along with their
prices, as argued above. Trade in manufacturing goods shows much less globalization, having increased
from only 13% to 17.5% of global GDP.
The lowest line takes into account the fact that higher raw material prices also means that industrialised
countries have to export more manufacturing goods to pay for their more expensive raw material imports.
This last line, which could be called 'manufacturing trade net of payment for raw materials' shows
even less globalization, with the ratio relative to GDP going from 10.5% to 13.6% of global GDP (an
increase of only 3 percentage points, one third of the headline increase mentioned above).
Figure 2 World trade as a percentage of GDP
Source : Own calculations based on OECD and WTO data.
This decomposition of trade flows suggests that there has indeed been some globalization, but
it has been much less strong than the hyper-globalization one sees in the aggregate data. Moreover,
the recent fall in commodity prices can fully explain the fall in trade since 2014 with trade in
'net manufacturing' showing no 'de-globalization'.
But back during the heyday of hyper-globalization, no responsible politician dared to explain
that globalization driven by higher commodity prices would have different implications (for advanced
economies) than globalization driven by trade liberalisation-this new globalization meant lower living
standards in advanced countries as higher commodity prices diminished the purchasing power for OECD
workers. The widespread popular disenchantment with globalization can thus be easily explained-workers
in Europe and the US were told that more trade would make everybody better off. But in reality there
was no 'surplus' to be distributed, and workers just noticed a decline in their living standards.
2
But hype and exaggeration are sure ways to bring a valid cause into disrepute. This is what has
happened to globalization. The decades of gradual liberalisation of trade and capital flows that
followed post-war reconstruction fostered a resumption of global trade that was hugely beneficial.
However, at exactly the point when economic analysis would suggest that these gains from trading
more freely were largely exhausted, actual trade accelerated. This surge in trade was driven largely
by higher commodity prices and could not deliver higher living standards for workers in industrialised
countries.
A popular backlash was thus unavoidable and Donald Trump became its standard bearer. The political
consequences in Europe are also visible-the Brexit referendum, the difficulties in ratifying the
free trade agreement between the EU and Canada (CETA) and the stand-still in the negotiations on
the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the EU and the US are all expressions
of this disenchantment with globalization.
What Could Be Done to Avoid Throwing the Baby Out With the Bath Water?
A first step would be to stop the overselling. CETA and TTIP would be useful to have, but the
economic benefits can only be of second order importance (and the potential damage feared by some
as well). A second step would be to look where there are still trade barriers whose removal could
bring significant welfare benefits. They are likely to be found in emerging markets, whose tariffs
and non-tariff barriers are still several times higher than those of the EU or the US. European trade
policy should thus concentrate on free trade deals with India or China, rather than the US.
Silly boy! What makes you think that Globalization was ever meant to grow "economies"? It was
never more than a means for mega-corporations to improve their bottom lines just another form
of arbitrage .
Globalization and the "free trade" it espoused were – in the words of economist Ha-Joon Chang
– tantamount to
ladder-kicking :
"His conclusions are compelling and disturbing: that developed countries are attempting
to 'kick away the ladder' with which they have climbed to the top, thereby preventing developing
counties from adopting policies and institutions that they themselves have used."
Yes, it's surprising how most politicians and economists have missed this. Globalization was
always meant to grow corporate revenue in their home saturated markets. Their effects on their
home countries' welfare or their home country employees was not important.
Trump voters showed us otherwise.
Also, mergers are not about scale economies or some market benefits. Mergers and acquisitions
are about letting top execs ask for higher benefits.
Which corporations have "home countries?" Any more than "our" empire is any respecter of silly
old national boundaries. Nations were and are just springboards for "commercial interests "
https://www.librarything.com/work/73551
They're the substrates that made and make "legal" the giant falsehoods and frauds that are
corporate persons
Once upon a time, we older people learned about MNCs and their penchant for playing
countries off against one another. That seems so quaint in retrospect, given the more brazen behaviors
on offer. More recently, families give up citizenship to save some wealth and to hide some wealth.
To what kind of world are they running? When loyalty, duty and character become passé, then the
replacement characteristics are cause for alarm and disgust.
My overall takeway - Decisions by large corporations have huge consequences for the locals,
especially if their jobs swim overseas. Locals' feelings at some point, maybe years later, become
their votes and political opinions.
So if this is correct, Trump is the payback, greatly delayed. B Clinton's and Obama's politics
changed our economy and that in turn became the new politics.
So economics has become politics, and not for the better.
The widespread popular disenchantment with globalization can thus be easily explained-workers
in Europe and the US were told that more trade would make everybody better off. But in reality
there was no 'surplus' to be distributed, and workers just noticed a decline in their living
standards.2
There was a surplus alright. But even if promised to "everybody" it didn't go and wasn't intended
to go – to "everybody".
Workers without jobs not only can not enjoy the fruits of globalization (AKA lower prices by
employing the 'slave labor' of developing nations and raping and pillaging their environment).
Western workers can not pay into their (unlocked by resident politicians and oligarchs) 'Social
Security lock boxes'.
1. How come the huge run-up in commodities didn't translate to higher (measured) inflation?
The author even makes the point that car prices went up much less than steel and oil. (Also, the
doubling of oil and/or steel prices seems strange to me, as I thought neither had seen a big run-up
in this period.) Granted problems with measured inflation but clearly the bigger problem with
working class real wage growth was wage pressure, not inflation pressure.
2. The author seems to presume that trade must balance within countries: exports of cars must
double to pay for higher commodities costs. That certainly does not explain car exports from the
US (not to mention the lack of balanced trade). And I don't think it explains car exports from
Europe or Asia either, unless the argument is that higher commodities costs affected exchange
rates, lowering them for car exporters compared to commodities exporters. Nor would it seem to
explain Chinese exports, again unless there is some argument as to why China "needs" (in an economic,
not political, sense) to run a particular level of massive trade surplus.
3. The author completely ignores China's accession to the WTO in 2000, which some recent studies
have suggested was the primary driver for dramatic increases in China exports to US from that
point.
The lack of car inflation may be explained by the increase in the same period in
auto loan debt . If you can make a hefty profit off the loan interest and other service fees,
they you don't need to increase the base car price. There may even be a motivation to keep the
prices low, as the cheap sticker price gets the customers in the door, and it's not until they've
gone through the ringer with the salesman and loan guy that they realized they've been duped into
paying way more than advertised.
There are a lot of things said in this post that I don't get. [And is this guy really Director
of the Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels? That's scary!]
This author explicitly equates trade with globalization and implicitly equates growth with
increases in GDP figures. I believe the term "globalization" covers much more than trade. I believe
it also includes the deliberate movement of production out of the U.S. [or out of Europe] to far-away
lands with cheaper labor and fewer annoying regulations. I believe it also includes an intent
to weaken labor and nation states.
I doubt that figures for GDP provide an adequate measure for growth and similarly doubt that
trade measured in terms of a currency provides an adequate measure for trade. Although I suppose
this way of measuring trade might support the assertion:
"But the key point is that higher commodity prices also automatically create more trade, because
commodities constitute a large fraction of global trade."
I don't know what that assertion really means given my bias against the measures this author
uses. In turn, this assertion leads to another odd assertion:
"This example shows that the value of trade would double if commodity prices double. There
is thus a direct link between the growth of trade and commodity prices. Increasing commodity prices
lead to more trade (globalization), whereas falling commodity prices have the opposite effect."
So using the authors terminology I have trouble with the assertion: "Globalization equals growth"
is wrong. If globalization means bigger trade numbers and growth means bigger GDP numbers and
if trade is a positive additive component of growth the assertion that globalization equals growth
- more clearly - that globalization increases growth seems a tautology. The author's slight of
hand correcting for "higher raw material prices" in the trade figures does not convince me of
the title assertion - and by this point in the argument the assertion - whether true or false
- is devoid of meaning for me.
As Thuto notes in a comment below the author assumes globalization driven by trade liberalization
is "somehow better" - I would say the author tacitly assumes globalization driven by trade liberalization
does equal growth - contribute to "true" growth. This leads to the author's conclusion that CETA
and TTIP might have some marginal benefits and might cause some marginal potential damage neatly
avoiding the non-trade issues in those deals - like the ISDS "investor-state dispute settlement"
and various intellectual property enhancements contained in the TTP. Given that globalization
by trade liberalization does grow GDP and assuming that growing GDP is a good thing for all parties
the author can conclude that "European trade policy should thus concentrate on free trade deals
with India or China, rather than the US."
We know how globalization's free trade deals with India or China benefited the US. Does this
author really desire similar benefits for Europe?
I'm with you Leftie. How inflation hardly appears in our hugely inflated western economies
is one of the greatest magic tricks. We all know food and clothing has got more expensive but
"inflation?" – not a hint.
I am guessing its like the paper gold market. We have the means to mis-price everything.
Conditions under which trade between nation-states is beneficial to both partners:
(1) Each nation exports goods which it has a competitive advantage in producing. Agricultural
products are the classic example.
(2) The profits from sale of such goods remain in the country of origin. Transfer of profits out
of the country of origin mean that the country is just a plantation run by absentee landlords.
(3) Trade between the nation-states must be balanced on both sides; i.e. exports and imports are
on the same scale.
(4) Both nation-states must have a condition of full employment.
(Ricardo 1817)
Only when conditions 2-4 are met will condition 1, the ideal situation, be realized. Now, globalization
of capital flows across nation-state borders (the key element of neoliberalism, or neocolonialism)
defeats this. Instead of trade between independent nation-states, what we have is the imperial
system – backed up by a $600 billion yearly military budget that is used to attack any entities
that refuse to go along with the program, by covert means such as destablization and ultimately
by military assault (as long as the target does not possess nuclear weapons, that is).
Furthermore, late 19th-century and 20th century economists have created a set of false assumptions
and theorems with no basis in reality to justify this kind of thing. Notions like 'utility', 'externalities',
and 'GDP' are just sloppy propaganda games; there are no 'general theorems' in economics that
have any solid basis in reality – the entire game of modern academic economic theory is nothing
but smoke and mirrors, whose primary function (as with Soviet economic theory and communism) is
to promote the ideology of investment capitalism, protecting shareholder interests in the corporate
system. If economists want to put their discipline on a sound physical and mathematical basis,
they should start by studying a real science like ecology in natural science departments. My own
opinion is that anything written by academic economists from the latter half of the 19th century
to the present can be discarded with no loss at all.
Instead, read an ecologist like Hutchinson, and think about how those real concepts (in which
there are no 'externalities') would apply to a study of human economic activity.
Globalization favored Mega Corporations and Multi-Nationals (+ their corporate share holders,
lenders) over the rest of the society including labor b/c global labor wage arbitrage!
Living standards went down for working blue collar ( and some white collar) in the West. There
was some 'patchy' RELATIVE increase in living standards of their middle class in some of the Countries,
like India!
Sad reality:
The CAPITAL is mobile but the LABOR is NOT!
The author seems to be arguing that globalization driven by trade liberalization is somehow
better and more palatable than globalisation driven by higher commodity prices. Yet history has
demonstrated that trade liberalization leads sooner or later to the transfer of manufacturing
capacity from high to low income countries, wiping out entire swathes of jobs in said high income
countries. So the argument that globalization driven by trade liberalization benefits workers
in rich countries is shaky at best and demonstrably false at worst
So much understanding of "what's wrong" (from the mopes' standpoint, of course) and so little
in the way of prescriptions for "what is to be done" about conditions as described Kind of like
Tomgram, from the more military- and foreign-adventurism corner of the blogspace
One might guess that we thinking people, with our perceptions and little debates about syntax
and the elements of political economy and composition skills, are maybe just tolerated by the
Blob, because we don't pose much of a challenge to oligarchy and hegemony And we vent off righteous
steam that might get up too much of a head, and also reinforce, via our perceptions of the massiveness
of "the problem," the futility of resistance to something so yuuuuge, all interlocking directorates
and self-licking incentives Small mice can sometimes avoid being crushed by the elephants' feet,
if they are quick and inoffensive.
One wonders where the notion that elephants fear mice, a stock item in comedy, came from
"... Trade liberalisation has been a significant driver of globalization over the past half century. However, global trade has slowed down in recent years. This column argues that globalization can also be driven by higher commodity prices can also drive, as commodities constitute a large fraction of global trade. This is reflected in trade volumes and commodity prices, which increased until around 2014 but have fallen since. However, commodity price-driven globalization implies lower living standards in advanced countries, as the higher commodity prices diminish the purchasing power of workers. ..."
"... See original post for references ..."
"... "His conclusions are compelling and disturbing: that developed countries are attempting to 'kick away the ladder' with which they have climbed to the top, thereby preventing developing counties from adopting policies and institutions that they themselves have used." ..."
By Daniel Gros, Director of the Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels. Originally published
at
VoxEU
Trade liberalisation has been a significant driver of globalization over the past half century.
However, global trade has slowed down in recent years. This column argues that globalization can
also be driven by higher commodity prices can also drive, as commodities constitute a large fraction
of global trade. This is reflected in trade volumes and commodity prices, which increased until around
2014 but have fallen since. However, commodity price-driven globalization implies lower living standards
in advanced countries, as the higher commodity prices diminish the purchasing power of workers.
Trade and international financial transactions have grown massively in recent decades. This phenomenon,
also called globalization, is often described as a 'mega-trend'. Business and political leaders never
tire of repeating that 'globalization' is the future, that it delivers more jobs and higher incomes.
However, more recently globalization seems to be in retreat-in 2015 trade actually fell, both in
absolute terms and relative to GDP. Does this mean globalization has gone into reverse (OECD 2016,
IMF 2015, 2016)?
In this column, I argue that the slogan 'globalization equals growth' is wrong. There is no general
economic theorem that links more trade to growth and other economic benefits. Economic theory implies
only that, under most circumstances, lower trade barriers will lead to more trade and more jobs.
The simplification, that more trade is thus always beneficial, is not warranted. If trade increases
for reasons other than the lowering of trade barriers, it is far from clear that this will benefit
everybody.
The distinction between globalization driven by lower trade barriers and increases in trade driven
by other factors is not just an academic point. It is the key to understanding why globalization
has become so unpopular in most advanced countries, and why the recent slowdown in trade is not something
to worry about.
What Drove 'Hyper-Globalization'?
The massive increase in trade flows over the last two decades has always been difficult to explain
with 'classic' causes, such as trade liberalisation lowering trade costs. Tariffs (and other trade
barriers) had of course been reduced radically in several stages in the 1960s, 70s, and 80s. However,
by the late 1990s the remaining tariffs were already rather low; and many non-tariff barriers (such
as the Multi Fibre Arrangement, which had seriously limited trade in textiles) had also been eliminated.
1
Transport costs of course fell with containerisation, but this improvement had yielded most of
its benefits by the late 1990s. Estimates of the overall cost of trade based on the ratio of CIF
prices (which incorporate transport costs) and FoB prices (which do not) actually suggest that transport
costs slightly increased over the last 20 years; before1995 they had fallen almost continuously (Baldwin
and Taglioni 2004). Figure 1 shows that transport costs have fallen again very recently, but that
this coincided with a slowdown of trade – the opposite of what one would expect.
Figure 1 Word transport costs
[Imports(CIF)/Exports(FoB]-1
How can one reconcile 'hyper-globalization' (Subramanian and Kessler 2013) with stagnating tariffs
and transport costs? Baldwin (2017) provides one answer. He argues that the key driver of globalization
today is the falling price of 'transporting' ideas, as opposed to the cost of moving goods.
This contribution provides an additional, maybe complementary, explanation-higher oil (and other
commodity) prices increase both trade volumes and transport costs for goods, but not ideas. The impact
of oil prices on transport costs is clear-fuel is an important element of overall transport costs.
A sharp increase in fuel prices can more than outweigh, at least in the short to medium run, the
costs savings due to containerisation. (Cosar and Demir 2017 also argue that most of the cost savings
from the latter have been realised.)
But the key point is that higher commodity prices also automatically create more trade, because
commodities constitute a large fraction of global trade.
An Illustrative Example
Assume that one tonne of steel and ten barrels of oil are needed to produce one car. In 2002-03,
that bundle of raw materials was worth around $800, or about 5% of the value of a car priced at $16,000.
This implies that during the early 2000s, industrialised countries had to export five cars for imports
of 100 bundles of these raw materials. By 2012–13, the value of the raw materials needed for one
car increased to about $2,000, now representing about 10% of the cost of a car (prices of cars had
gone up much less). Industrialised countries thus had to export 10 cars, double the previous quantity,
for the same amount of raw material imports.
This example shows that the value of trade would double if commodity prices double. There is thus
a direct link between the growth of trade and commodity prices. Increasing commodity prices lead
to more trade (globalization), whereas falling commodity prices have the opposite effect.
An immediate objection to this example is that it looks at the value of trade, but one also finds
that over the last decades the growth of trade in volume has exceeded that of the volume of real
growth. However, this excess growth in trade volume also follows in this example-an industrialised
country would need to double its exports in volume just to pay for an unchanged volume of raw material
imports.
Since food, fuels, and raw materials make up about a quarter of global trade, the huge price movements
in raw materials, especially energy, over the last few decades, must have had a big impact on aggregate
trade figures. The run up in commodity, and especially crude oil, prices until about 2014 drove hyper-globalization,
and the fall in prices since then has now reduced globalization. There is thus little need to look
for other explanations for the recent slowdown in trade.
Figure 2 illustrates this phenomenon with three lines, each of which show three variants of the
global trade/GDP ratio. The top-most line is just the ratio of total global exports to global GDP.
It is the one that shows most globalization-trade accounted for a little over 15% of GDP in 1995,
but 25% at the peak in 2007 (an increase of almost 10 percentage points).
The middle line shows global exports of manufacturing goods as a percentage of GDP. The difference
to the first line is, of course, trade in raw materials, which increased in value along with their
prices, as argued above. Trade in manufacturing goods shows much less globalization, having increased
from only 13% to 17.5% of global GDP.
The lowest line takes into account the fact that higher raw material prices also means that industrialised
countries have to export more manufacturing goods to pay for their more expensive raw material imports.
This last line, which could be called 'manufacturing trade net of payment for raw materials' shows
even less globalization, with the ratio relative to GDP going from 10.5% to 13.6% of global GDP (an
increase of only 3 percentage points, one third of the headline increase mentioned above).
Figure 2 World trade as a percentage of GDP
Source : Own calculations based on OECD and WTO data.
This decomposition of trade flows suggests that there has indeed been some globalization, but
it has been much less strong than the hyper-globalization one sees in the aggregate data. Moreover,
the recent fall in commodity prices can fully explain the fall in trade since 2014 with trade in
'net manufacturing' showing no 'de-globalization'.
But back during the heyday of hyper-globalization, no responsible politician dared to explain
that globalization driven by higher commodity prices would have different implications (for advanced
economies) than globalization driven by trade liberalisation-this new globalization meant lower living
standards in advanced countries as higher commodity prices diminished the purchasing power for OECD
workers. The widespread popular disenchantment with globalization can thus be easily explained-workers
in Europe and the US were told that more trade would make everybody better off. But in reality there
was no 'surplus' to be distributed, and workers just noticed a decline in their living standards.
2
But hype and exaggeration are sure ways to bring a valid cause into disrepute. This is what has
happened to globalization. The decades of gradual liberalisation of trade and capital flows that
followed post-war reconstruction fostered a resumption of global trade that was hugely beneficial.
However, at exactly the point when economic analysis would suggest that these gains from trading
more freely were largely exhausted, actual trade accelerated. This surge in trade was driven largely
by higher commodity prices and could not deliver higher living standards for workers in industrialised
countries.
A popular backlash was thus unavoidable and Donald Trump became its standard bearer. The political
consequences in Europe are also visible-the Brexit referendum, the difficulties in ratifying the
free trade agreement between the EU and Canada (CETA) and the stand-still in the negotiations on
the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) between the EU and the US are all expressions
of this disenchantment with globalization.
What Could Be Done to Avoid Throwing the Baby Out With the Bath Water?
A first step would be to stop the overselling. CETA and TTIP would be useful to have, but the
economic benefits can only be of second order importance (and the potential damage feared by some
as well). A second step would be to look where there are still trade barriers whose removal could
bring significant welfare benefits. They are likely to be found in emerging markets, whose tariffs
and non-tariff barriers are still several times higher than those of the EU or the US. European trade
policy should thus concentrate on free trade deals with India or China, rather than the US.
Silly boy! What makes you think that Globalization was ever meant to grow "economies"? It was
never more than a means for mega-corporations to improve their bottom lines just another form
of arbitrage .
Globalization and the "free trade" it espoused were – in the words of economist Ha-Joon Chang
– tantamount to
ladder-kicking :
"His conclusions are compelling and disturbing: that developed countries are attempting
to 'kick away the ladder' with which they have climbed to the top, thereby preventing developing
counties from adopting policies and institutions that they themselves have used."
Yes, it's surprising how most politicians and economists have missed this. Globalization was
always meant to grow corporate revenue in their home saturated markets. Their effects on their
home countries' welfare or their home country employees was not important.
Trump voters showed us otherwise.
Also, mergers are not about scale economies or some market benefits. Mergers and acquisitions
are about letting top execs ask for higher benefits.
Which corporations have "home countries?" Any more than "our" empire is any respecter of silly
old national boundaries. Nations were and are just springboards for "commercial interests "
https://www.librarything.com/work/73551
They're the substrates that made and make "legal" the giant falsehoods and frauds that are
corporate persons
Once upon a time, we older people learned about MNCs and their penchant for playing
countries off against one another. That seems so quaint in retrospect, given the more brazen behaviors
on offer. More recently, families give up citizenship to save some wealth and to hide some wealth.
To what kind of world are they running? When loyalty, duty and character become passé, then the
replacement characteristics are cause for alarm and disgust.
My overall takeway - Decisions by large corporations have huge consequences for the locals,
especially if their jobs swim overseas. Locals' feelings at some point, maybe years later, become
their votes and political opinions.
So if this is correct, Trump is the payback, greatly delayed. B Clinton's and Obama's politics
changed our economy and that in turn became the new politics.
So economics has become politics, and not for the better.
The widespread popular disenchantment with globalization can thus be easily explained-workers
in Europe and the US were told that more trade would make everybody better off. But in reality
there was no 'surplus' to be distributed, and workers just noticed a decline in their living
standards.2
There was a surplus alright. But even if promised to "everybody" it didn't go and wasn't intended
to go – to "everybody".
Workers without jobs not only can not enjoy the fruits of globalization (AKA lower prices by
employing the 'slave labor' of developing nations and raping and pillaging their environment).
Western workers can not pay into their (unlocked by resident politicians and oligarchs) 'Social
Security lock boxes'.
1. How come the huge run-up in commodities didn't translate to higher (measured) inflation?
The author even makes the point that car prices went up much less than steel and oil. (Also, the
doubling of oil and/or steel prices seems strange to me, as I thought neither had seen a big run-up
in this period.) Granted problems with measured inflation but clearly the bigger problem with
working class real wage growth was wage pressure, not inflation pressure.
2. The author seems to presume that trade must balance within countries: exports of cars must
double to pay for higher commodities costs. That certainly does not explain car exports from the
US (not to mention the lack of balanced trade). And I don't think it explains car exports from
Europe or Asia either, unless the argument is that higher commodities costs affected exchange
rates, lowering them for car exporters compared to commodities exporters. Nor would it seem to
explain Chinese exports, again unless there is some argument as to why China "needs" (in an economic,
not political, sense) to run a particular level of massive trade surplus.
3. The author completely ignores China's accession to the WTO in 2000, which some recent studies
have suggested was the primary driver for dramatic increases in China exports to US from that
point.
The lack of car inflation may be explained by the increase in the same period in
auto loan debt . If you can make a hefty profit off the loan interest and other service fees,
they you don't need to increase the base car price. There may even be a motivation to keep the
prices low, as the cheap sticker price gets the customers in the door, and it's not until they've
gone through the ringer with the salesman and loan guy that they realized they've been duped into
paying way more than advertised.
There are a lot of things said in this post that I don't get. [And is this guy really Director
of the Centre for European Policy Studies, Brussels? That's scary!]
This author explicitly equates trade with globalization and implicitly equates growth with
increases in GDP figures. I believe the term "globalization" covers much more than trade. I believe
it also includes the deliberate movement of production out of the U.S. [or out of Europe] to far-away
lands with cheaper labor and fewer annoying regulations. I believe it also includes an intent
to weaken labor and nation states.
I doubt that figures for GDP provide an adequate measure for growth and similarly doubt that
trade measured in terms of a currency provides an adequate measure for trade. Although I suppose
this way of measuring trade might support the assertion:
"But the key point is that higher commodity prices also automatically create more trade, because
commodities constitute a large fraction of global trade."
I don't know what that assertion really means given my bias against the measures this author
uses. In turn, this assertion leads to another odd assertion:
"This example shows that the value of trade would double if commodity prices double. There
is thus a direct link between the growth of trade and commodity prices. Increasing commodity prices
lead to more trade (globalization), whereas falling commodity prices have the opposite effect."
So using the authors terminology I have trouble with the assertion: "Globalization equals growth"
is wrong. If globalization means bigger trade numbers and growth means bigger GDP numbers and
if trade is a positive additive component of growth the assertion that globalization equals growth
- more clearly - that globalization increases growth seems a tautology. The author's slight of
hand correcting for "higher raw material prices" in the trade figures does not convince me of
the title assertion - and by this point in the argument the assertion - whether true or false
- is devoid of meaning for me.
As Thuto notes in a comment below the author assumes globalization driven by trade liberalization
is "somehow better" - I would say the author tacitly assumes globalization driven by trade liberalization
does equal growth - contribute to "true" growth. This leads to the author's conclusion that CETA
and TTIP might have some marginal benefits and might cause some marginal potential damage neatly
avoiding the non-trade issues in those deals - like the ISDS "investor-state dispute settlement"
and various intellectual property enhancements contained in the TTP. Given that globalization
by trade liberalization does grow GDP and assuming that growing GDP is a good thing for all parties
the author can conclude that "European trade policy should thus concentrate on free trade deals
with India or China, rather than the US."
We know how globalization's free trade deals with India or China benefited the US. Does this
author really desire similar benefits for Europe?
I'm with you Leftie. How inflation hardly appears in our hugely inflated western economies
is one of the greatest magic tricks. We all know food and clothing has got more expensive but
"inflation?" – not a hint.
I am guessing its like the paper gold market. We have the means to mis-price everything.
Conditions under which trade between nation-states is beneficial to both partners:
(1) Each nation exports goods which it has a competitive advantage in producing. Agricultural
products are the classic example.
(2) The profits from sale of such goods remain in the country of origin. Transfer of profits out
of the country of origin mean that the country is just a plantation run by absentee landlords.
(3) Trade between the nation-states must be balanced on both sides; i.e. exports and imports are
on the same scale.
(4) Both nation-states must have a condition of full employment.
(Ricardo 1817)
Only when conditions 2-4 are met will condition 1, the ideal situation, be realized. Now, globalization
of capital flows across nation-state borders (the key element of neoliberalism, or neocolonialism)
defeats this. Instead of trade between independent nation-states, what we have is the imperial
system – backed up by a $600 billion yearly military budget that is used to attack any entities
that refuse to go along with the program, by covert means such as destablization and ultimately
by military assault (as long as the target does not possess nuclear weapons, that is).
Furthermore, late 19th-century and 20th century economists have created a set of false assumptions
and theorems with no basis in reality to justify this kind of thing. Notions like 'utility', 'externalities',
and 'GDP' are just sloppy propaganda games; there are no 'general theorems' in economics that
have any solid basis in reality – the entire game of modern academic economic theory is nothing
but smoke and mirrors, whose primary function (as with Soviet economic theory and communism) is
to promote the ideology of investment capitalism, protecting shareholder interests in the corporate
system. If economists want to put their discipline on a sound physical and mathematical basis,
they should start by studying a real science like ecology in natural science departments. My own
opinion is that anything written by academic economists from the latter half of the 19th century
to the present can be discarded with no loss at all.
Instead, read an ecologist like Hutchinson, and think about how those real concepts (in which
there are no 'externalities') would apply to a study of human economic activity.
Globalization favored Mega Corporations and Multi-Nationals (+ their corporate share holders,
lenders) over the rest of the society including labor b/c global labor wage arbitrage!
Living standards went down for working blue collar ( and some white collar) in the West. There
was some 'patchy' RELATIVE increase in living standards of their middle class in some of the Countries,
like India!
Sad reality:
The CAPITAL is mobile but the LABOR is NOT!
The author seems to be arguing that globalization driven by trade liberalization is somehow
better and more palatable than globalisation driven by higher commodity prices. Yet history has
demonstrated that trade liberalization leads sooner or later to the transfer of manufacturing
capacity from high to low income countries, wiping out entire swathes of jobs in said high income
countries. So the argument that globalization driven by trade liberalization benefits workers
in rich countries is shaky at best and demonstrably false at worst
So much understanding of "what's wrong" (from the mopes' standpoint, of course) and so little
in the way of prescriptions for "what is to be done" about conditions as described Kind of like
Tomgram, from the more military- and foreign-adventurism corner of the blogspace
One might guess that we thinking people, with our perceptions and little debates about syntax
and the elements of political economy and composition skills, are maybe just tolerated by the
Blob, because we don't pose much of a challenge to oligarchy and hegemony And we vent off righteous
steam that might get up too much of a head, and also reinforce, via our perceptions of the massiveness
of "the problem," the futility of resistance to something so yuuuuge, all interlocking directorates
and self-licking incentives Small mice can sometimes avoid being crushed by the elephants' feet,
if they are quick and inoffensive.
One wonders where the notion that elephants fear mice, a stock item in comedy, came from
"... How can we defend property rights at the same time as defending a system which came into being by denying those rights? ..."
"... Do current market structures (which are of course determined by the state) really maximize development? ..."
"... Are markets really a realm of freedom, or a means through which some exploit and oppress others? And so on. ..."
"... "The system of protection," says Marx, "was an artificial means of manufacturing manufacturers, of expropriating independent laborers, of capitalizing the national means of production and subsistence, and of forcibly abbreviating the transition from the medieval to the modern mode of production." ..."
"... Most Libertarians I have come across just seem to dislike taxes and are looking for a reason why this might be a morally acceptable position. It is like that famous J K Galbraith quote: "The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness." ..."
"... Anybody who thinks that Libertarians really care about "freedom" (whatever that is - the more I think about it the less I see a difference to "power" - which is largely - though not entirely - zero sum) is kidding themselves. ..."
"... I reckon there are three reasons libertarians should read Marx. One is that Marx saw economics as a historical process. For him, one of the big questions was: "where did that come from?" ..."
For one thing, I suspect libertarians like him would be surprised by a lot of Marx. There's astonishingly
little in Marx about a centrally planned economy: if you want an argument for central planning, you
should read that hero of the right, Ronald Coase
instead (pdf ). Marx was admiring of capitalism in some respects. It has, he
wrote , given "an immense development to commerce" and has "accomplished wonders far surpassing
Egyptian pyramids, Roman aqueducts, and Gothic cathedrals." And I think you'd be surprised by just
how much attention Marx paid to the facts: once you get past the first few chapters, there's massive
empirical work in Capital volume I*. And there are many
differences between Marx and social democrats – not least of them being that Marx was no statist.
What's more, many of the ideas associated with Marx were largely elaborations of his predecessors:
Paul Samuelson
called him a "minor post-Ricardian". The labour theory of value, the interest in the division
of income between classes and the idea of a falling rate of profit are all as Ricardian as Marxian.
(The falling rate of
profit (pdf) might be a good
explanation for our recent slow growth and lack of capital spending, but let that pass).
I reckon there are three reasons libertarians should read Marx.
One is that Marx saw economics as a historical process. For him, one of the big questions
was: "where did that come from?" ...
A second reason for libertarians to read Marx lies in his view of the relationship between
property rights and technical
progress ...
A third reason to read Marx lies in his attitudes to freedom. ...
In short, then, libertarians should read Marx because he poses them some questions which should
sharpen their thinking.
How can we defend property rights at the same time as defending a system which came into
being by denying those rights?
What material conditions are necessary for people to support freedom? How will new technologies
shape our beliefs?
Do current market structures (which are of course determined by the state) really maximize
development?
If not, how can they change? Do actually-existing markets merely enhance formal freedom, or
are they conducive to the substantive freedom that Marx wanted? Can they be made more conducive?
Are markets really a realm of freedom, or a means through which some exploit and oppress
others? And so on.
If you look past tribal caricatures, perhaps libertarian thinking will be enriched by a consideration
of Marx's work.
On the Question of Free Trade
Preface by Frederick Engels for the 1888 English edition pamphlet
TOWARDS the end of 1847, a Free Trade Congress was held at Brussels. It as a strategic move
in the Free Trade campaign then carried on by the English manufacturers. Victorious at home, by
the repeal of the Corn Laws in 1846, they now invaded the continent in order to demand, in return
for the free admission of continental corn into England, the free admission of English manufactured
goods to the continental markets.
At this Congress, Marx inscribed himself on the list of speakers; but, as might have been expected,
things were not so managed that before his turn came on, the Congress was closed. Thus, what Marx
had to say on the Free Trade question he was compelled to say before the Democratic Association
of Brussels, an international body of which he was one of the vice-presidents.
The question of Free Trade or Protection being at present on the order of the day in America,
it has been thought useful to publish an English translation of Marx's speech, to which I have
been asked to write an introductory preface.
"The system of protection," says Marx, "was an artificial means of manufacturing manufacturers,
of expropriating independent laborers, of capitalizing the national means of production and subsistence,
and of forcibly abbreviating the transition from the medieval to the modern mode of production."
Such was protection at its origin in the 17th century, such it remained well into the 19th
century. It was then held to be the normal policy of every civilized state in western Europe.
The only exceptions were the smaller states of Germany and Switzerland -- not from dislike of
the system, but from the impossibility of applying it to such small territories....
I sort of wonder though, who Chris Dillow is addressing here. Most Libertarians I have come
across just seem to dislike taxes and are looking for a reason why this might be a morally acceptable
position. It is like that famous J K Galbraith quote: "The modern conservative is engaged in one
of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification
for selfishness."
Anybody who thinks that Libertarians really care about "freedom" (whatever that is - the
more I think about it the less I see a difference to "power" - which is largely - though not entirely
- zero sum) is kidding themselves.
Nice essay, and though I have a loose understanding of Marx which would obviously bother those
who read Marx strictly no matter the motives, I think a loose understanding warranted and directly
applicable. The reason I find a loose understanding of Marx important, is that just as there are
successful capitalist economies, and just as many people think that is all there are in the way
of successful economies, there is a communist economy that is successful and important enough
to be studied as such.
I would think that understanding China would take having a loose understanding of Marx, because
though American economists may argue with the idea China has developed successfully as a communist
system.
[ I do not care, by the way, to argue the matter, the perspective is just mine. ]
I reckon there are three reasons libertarians should read Marx. One is that Marx saw economics
as a historical process. For him, one of the big questions was: "where did that come from?"
Socialism's Future May Be Its Past
By Bhaskar Sunkara
One hundred years after Lenin's sealed train arrived at Finland Station and set into motion
the events that led to Stalin's gulags, the idea that we should return to this history for inspiration
might sound absurd. But there was good reason that the Bolsheviks once called themselves "social
democrats." They were part of a broad movement of growing parties that aimed to fight for greater
political democracy and, using the wealth and the new working class created by capitalism, extend
democratic rights into the social and economic spheres, which no capitalist would permit.
The early Communist movement never rejected this broad premise. It was born out of a sense
of betrayal by the more moderate left-wing parties of the Second International, the alliance of
socialist and labor parties from 20 countries that formed in Paris in 1889. Across Europe, party
after party did the unthinkable, abandoned their pledges to working-class solidarity for all nations,
and backed their respective governments in World War I. Those that remained loyal to the old ideas
called themselves Communists to distance themselves from the socialists who had abetted a slaughter
that claimed 16 million lives. (Amid the carnage, the Second International itself fell apart in
1916.)
Of course, the Communists' noble gambit to stop the war and blaze a humane path to modernity
in backward Russia ended up seemingly affirming the Burkean notion that any attempt to upturn
an unjust order would end up only creating another.
Most socialists have been chastened by the lessons of 20th-century Communism. Today, many who
would have cheered on the October Revolution have less confidence about the prospects for radically
transforming the world in a single generation. They put an emphasis instead on political pluralism,
dissent and diversity.
Still, the specter of socialism evokes fear of a new totalitarianism. A recent Victims of Communism
Memorial Foundation report worries that young people are likely to view socialism favorably and
that a "Bernie Sanders bounce" may be contributing to a millennial turn against capitalism. Last
year, the president of the United States Chamber of Commerce, Thomas J. Donohue, even found it
necessary to remind readers that "Socialism Is a Dangerous Path for America."
The right still denounces socialism as an economic system that will lead to misery and privation,
but with less emphasis on the political authoritarianism that often went hand in hand with socialism
in power. This may be because elites today do not have democratic rights at the forefront of their
minds - perhaps because they know that the societies they run are hard to justify on those terms.
Capitalism is an economic system: a way of organizing production for the market through private
ownership and the profit motive. To the extent that it has permitted democracy, it has been with
extreme reluctance. That's why early workers' movements like Britain's Chartists in the early
19th century organized, first and foremost, for democratic rights. Capitalist and socialist leaders
alike believed that the struggle for universal suffrage would encourage workers to use their votes
in the political sphere to demand an economic order that put them in control.
It didn't quite work out that way. Across the West, workers came to accept a sort of class
compromise....
The way to think about this is to distinguish between the margin and the whole. Capitalism provides
a valuable dynamism at the margin, that neither monopoly capitalism nor centralized socialism
can provide when they dominate the whole of society. That is why a mixture is essential.
Countervailing power is essential. Somehow this topic seems to emphasize the value of JK Galbraith,
he may not have moved economics much forward, but his political vision was valuable.
The term Classical Marxism denotes the collection of socio-eco-political theories expounded
by Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels. "Marxism," as Ernest Mandel remarked, "is always open, always
critical, always self-critical." As such, Classical Marxism distinguishes between "Marxism" as
broadly perceived, and "what Marx believed;" thus, in 1883, Marx wrote to the French labour leader
Jules Guesde and to Paul Lafargue (Marx's son-in-law) – both of whom claimed to represent Marxist
principles – accusing them of "revolutionary phrase-mongering" and of denying the value of reformist
struggle; from Marx's letter derives the paraphrase: "If that is Marxism, then I am not a Marxist."
There's astonishingly little in Marx about a centrally planned economy: if you want an argument
for central planning, you should read that hero of the right, Ronald Coase instead (pdf)....
-- Chris Dillow
[ This reference link will not open. Possibly a reader might know what was intended as the
reference. ]
In law and economics, the Coase theorem * describes the economic efficiency of an economic
allocation or outcome in the presence of externalities. The theorem states that if trade in an
externality is possible and there are sufficiently low transaction costs, bargaining will lead
to an efficient outcome regardless of the initial allocation of property. In practice, obstacles
to bargaining or poorly defined property rights can prevent Coasian bargaining.
* This "theorem" is commonly attributed to University of Chicago Nobel Prize laureate Ronald
Coase. However, Coase himself stated that the theorem was based on perhaps four pages of his 1960
paper "The Problem of Social Cost", and that the "Coase theorem" is not about his work at all.
Would the so-called Coase theorem then, explain why Coase might be considered a hero of libertarians?
I must be missing something, but what would that be?
While Marx was never very explicit about what he envisioned as the future, he appears to have
favored the syndicalist model, basically a system of co-ops owned and run by the workers but retaining
the "company" model of capitalism.
While Marx was never very explicit about what he envisioned as the future, he appears to have
favored the syndicalist model, basically a system of co-ops owned and run by the workers but retaining
the "company" model of capitalism.
[ Like Germany, at least somewhat. With worker representation on corporate boards and industry-wide
worker bargaining. Fascinating and important, and to the extent that this is like Germany, successful.
]
Economic theory has suffered in the past from a failure to state clearly its assumption. Economists
in building up a theory have often omitted to examine the foundations on which it was erected.
This examination is, however, essential not only to prevent the misunderstanding and needles controversy
which arise from a lack of knowledge of the assumptions on which a theory is based, but also because
of the extreme importance for economics of good judgment in choosing between rival sets of assumptions.
For instance, it is suggested that the use of the word "firm" in economics may be different from
the use of the term by the "plain man."' Since there is apparently a trend in economic theory
towards starting analysis with the individual firm and not with the industry,2 it is ail the more
necessary not only that a clear definition of the word "firm" should be given but that its difference
from a firm in the "real world," if it aists, should be made clear. Mrs. Robinson has said that
"the two questions to be asked of a set of assumptions in economics are: Are they tractable? and:
Do they correspond with the real world?"3
Though, as Mrs. Robinson points out, "More often one set will be manageable and the other realistic,"
yet there may well be branches of theory where assumptions may be both manageable and realistic.
It is hoped to show in the following paper that a definition of a firm may be obtained which is
not only realistic in that it corresponds to what is meant by a firm in the real world, but is
tractable by two of the most powerful instruments of economic analysis developed by Marshall,
the idea of the margin and that of substitution, together giving the idea of substitution at the
margin.4 Our definition must, of course, "relate to formal relations which are capable of being
conceived exactly."
And here's to you
Mrs. Robinson
Jesus loves you more than you will know
Woah woah woah
God bless you please
Mrs. Robinson
Heaven holds a place for those who pray
Hey hey hey, hey hey hey
Hopefully I haven't confused my Robinsons again. :)
"... some one ought to do a study of/ a book on generic management ..."
"... I'm seeing a parallel to the Obama strategy of branding/looting. Corporate and government decay seem to be mirroring each other, and this new obsession among the intelligentsia with messaging over substance is a major component of that. ..."
"... This branding/looting/communications has been building since at least 1977 when undergraduate communication majors multiplied. It accelerated by 1982 when every corporate finance and law professor taught short term quarterly profit was the only responsibility of management. The combination could only lead to the current 'propaganda as responsible management' philosophy. ..."
some one ought to do a study of/ a book on generic management. it goes back a long way. i first
saw it in 1973 where i was working in boomingdale's food department. almost all the managers in
the store had worked their way up fom being staff members. in 1973 the board hired a young impressive-
looking harvard mba to oversee about a fifth of the departments. he was an energetic man who spent
one whole day throwing boxes around in the foof department stockroom to "show the stockmen how
to be more productive." after two years his section of the store was the only one to lose money,
but by then he had been hired by neiman marcus. in an even higher position.
the managerial class, useless and self-rewarding, is what every corrupt society needs.- endless
administrators in the college system, inventing tests for the teachers. red cross, whatever. the
destruction of substance and brains and heart. its replacement with ignorance and cluelessness.
what a society we're (not) building!
"The managerial class, useless and self-rewarding, is what every corrupt society needs."
The eloi will continue to become ever more useless, putting insane pressures on
the few remaining morlocks they allow to do all the work. Will robots save us? Not very
likely, since they will be used to further enrich the parasites above all.
The BBC is another good example of how managerialism has wrecked a not-for-profit corporation.
Until McKinsey infiltrated the place, the BBC didn't really have a "brand" to speak of; if it
considered its corporate identity at all, it was only in terms of how its output of programming
conveyed what it was supposed to be about as an organisation.
Then, it brought in the brand consultants to develop an image of what it thought it should
be. Nothing necessarily wrong with that. What caused the rot to set in was when the brand image
started to define the programming output. Was, the brand managers asked the producers and directors,
this-or-that programme compliant with the brand guidelines?
If the BBC's brand was not merely delivering communications which are honest and have integrity
but also now need to be "simple to understand", "completely neutral at all times" or "a balance
of positive as well as negative content" then you end up, as we largely have, with a lot of cosy-consensus
mediocrity and an institution which only serves its own internal vested interests.
I'm seeing a parallel to the Obama strategy of branding/looting. Corporate and government
decay seem to be mirroring each other, and this new obsession among the intelligentsia with messaging
over substance is a major component of that.
I'd say that this is also the reason it's impossible to get the government in order. The corporate
media is in bed with the corporate state, because patriotism, and most Americans are simply too
burned-out or drug-addled to question anything. And if people do sense something is wrong and
want a drastic change–well then there's Trump.
This branding/looting/communications has been building since at least 1977 when undergraduate
communication majors multiplied. It accelerated by 1982 when every corporate finance and law professor
taught short term quarterly profit was the only responsibility of management. The combination
could only lead to the current 'propaganda as responsible management' philosophy.
I don't know when the turning point was, but it had something to do with neoliberalism becoming
the "Washington Consensus" and the dogma that everything had to be "run like a business" became
universally accepted. I would guess about the Carter administration.
Wow -- It's an amazing story yet I should not be surprised. It's become a common theme throughout
American society. We have the usual suspects, greedy, self centered individuals looking out for
their interests, using the established modus operandi. Cut, slash and burn as many systems as
possible while painting over the truth with colorful, truth distorting logic while enriching your
self on the way.
An organization founded by Clara Barton in the 1880″s that has evolved into such a grab bag
of I want my share thinking is an American tragedy of epic proportions.
Funny timing. Just yesterday I was passed on the road in my area of NH by a Red Cross Hummer.
It as white all over and the doors emblazoned with the red cross. In tiny print toward the back
it said "donated by GM". Made me sick. Got me thinking about all of the mismanagement going back
decades.
Personally, I'll throw any charitable discretionary money I might have into the gutter before
I'd send a cent to the Red Cross. Took three strikes–but I'm done with them.
My father-in-law served in the SeaBees during WWII and initially influenced my dislike for the
organization. He reported how Red Cross care packages were "SOLD" rather than distributed to intended
service personnel. [Strike one!]
Much later the Twin Towers came down and I felt compelled to donate. When several weeks later
I heard officials talk about the amount of contributions received, and asked us to dig deeper–they
also revealed that they were setting aside (toward future disasters) at least half of donated
dollars. (Whether this was true I don't know–but the fact that it made it into public discussion
was not a skillful marketing ploy.) [Strike two!]
I then heard horror stories from local volunteers here on the (unaffected) part of the gulf
coast who dropped what they were doing to offer help and support to Hurricane Katrina victims
in myriad ways A veterinary friend–after describing the absolute chaos he encountered in the area–reported
that late one night, after a gut-wrenching and exhausting day, he walked into the Red Cross tent
for a cup of coffee. Not without paying for it–$1/cup–he was told. [Strike three!]
There are local charities still deserving of my small discretionary donations–so I won't truly
be throwing money into the gutter; but if my only choice was give to the RC or throw it away:
I'd throw it away.
Thanks for the article. I think further investigation would show that others charities–particularly
those like the American Diabetes Association (with which I'm familiar)– have adopted that same
managerialism model.
"The Marketers' Best Laid Plans Led to Declining Contributions"
This year, for the first time ever in my adult life, I did not sent a contribution to the Red
Cross. All the reasons listed in this excellent post went into my decision not to contribute.
I still feel bad about it, but I can't 'enable' continued bad management of the Red Cross.
This article proves yet again that by their words shall they be known. In this day and age
when almost everything from politics to education is being subsumed by business lingo, it's interesting
to see by the Red Cross example where it will all end up.
The Red Cross which depends on volunteers and donors gets master marketers and business expertise
and becomes "branded" as a business; helping others in distress becomes being efficient; preventing
and alleviating suffering becomes creating a profitable place where executives get mighty big
bonuses; the bottom-up organization becomes a top-down monolith; taking care of emergencies becomes
profit-making exercises; all in all, this Red Cross refurbishment reflects the society that we
have become–the 1% versus the 99%. When organizations are defined in financial and business terms,
there is no room for alleviating or preventing human suffering.
Crapification of "charities" abounds. I've lived in So CA at least part time since the '90s.
San Diegans don't have a lot of love for the San Diego Red Cross:
I stopped giving to the Red Cross a long time ago bc of mis-mangement of money and making sure
that the Big Wigs at the top get THEIRS first and screw everyone else. It's unfortunate, as this
organization probably does some good stuff, but it's priorities are not good.
I donate a certain amount every year, and I look very closely and carefully at the organizations
to whom I give my hard-earned dollars. Advise everyone else to do the same. There's a lot of "charities"
out there that exist primarily to enrich those at the top, and any good that's done for others
– whom the "charity" alleges to serve or support – is strictly incidental.
This is a great dissection of the decline at this august organization. Partners In Health is
an example of a charity worth supporting.
BTW, I found the Wikipedia bio of the Bonnie McElveen-Hunter very creepy. Looking at the website
of her company, Pace Communications, it took me awhile to figure out what they really do, which
seems to be something on par with publishing airline magazines. It really isn't clear why this
woman should have attained her power and status – e.g. trustee of the RAND Corporation? Really?
Seems emblematic of the rot at the top of the US elite.
Well publicized failures in the Hurricane Sandy response and the failure of their attempts
at increased revenues through price raises, "branding" and marketing aside, the ARC WAS in increasingly
dire straits when she took over. By many accounts centralizing things and closing many local branches
WAS a necessity, because cutting overhead was desperately needed in an organization that was loosing
large amounts of money every year. This is often that case with these "superstar managers," If
everything is working well the organization doesn't bring them on. But when an organization is
already floundering, the Boards look for a "superstar" that can "turn it around." It's a perfect
situation for these guys: (they're mostly men) If the company goes bankrupt, they say that it
was in worse shape than they thought and nobody could have saved it and it it DOES turn around
(often for completely exogenous reasons) they can take the credit.
The Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority, which runs the subways and buses in Washington
DC recently went through a protracted process of hiring a new director because there was a real
deep divide on the board between those who wanted a transit executive and those who wanted a "turnaround
specialist." They ended up with the latter and there's already talk about a "charm offensive"
to try and woo more riders
The Red Cross was bleeding red ink, partly because of less demand for blood products in surgery
(they sell the blood that gets donated) and partly because their labeling system was out of date,
which reduced demand compared to their competitors' products. This is something the ProPublica
article makes clear that isn't really referenced in the HCR post.
So the Red Cross brought in a generic marketer/manager who did what they do best–chopping off
employee heads while destroying what made the organization viable. The Red Cross isn't the kind
of non-profit that can survive the loss of goodwill in a community. And they still haven't addressed
the labeling problem.
Labeling these people generic managers or whatever is far too kind. The goal and driving force
of these people was to extract more money from those most in need of charity and assistance. These
people are shitty human beings, so call them what they are. The changes that they have wrought
within the Red Cross organization has deprived countless suffering peoples of the good will and
needed services that would have been provided by this organization BUT FOR THESE ASSHOLES.
Charities are not businesses. Charities, by definition, plan to GIVE things or services to
others, not sell them, not to make profit. Putting profit loving Randians, possessed with the
goal of using corporate profit taking methods, in charge of a charity is like putting "arsonists
for profit" in charge of the fire department. The people that suffer are those that NEED charity,
be it in the form of shelter, services, goods, or information, and we, as a society, are diminished.
Sacrificing the Red Cross on the alter of conservative economic ideology is tragic.
I have to bring up the post 911 witchhunt by fox news on the red cross too.
That seemed to the the turning point, or near it.
"you mean not all of our donations are going to NYC?"
With Bill Oreilly yelling and throwing spittle at the TV cameras, a change had to be made.
I'm sure more than a few of his budddies, who are very Professional Managers, were first in the
door.
It's just another part of the planned destruction of any sort of locally based ability or lobby.
years ago i worked for a marketing firm that did a significant amount of work for the organizer
of the avon 3 day breast cancer walks and the amount of money wasted on frivolous items and activities
made me sick. really opened my eyes about charities and how greed and fraud can be rampant in
the least expected places. don't think i can get any more cynical abt the world at this point
:(
There is not enough money in the world to pay McGovern a bonus that would make up for what
she has done to the RC. Perhaps a 1000 year stint in a max security prison would be a start though.
In the source article mentioned above (
https://www.propublica.org/article/the-corporate-takeover-of-the-red-cross ) we see century+
old organization established with a charter for public service disaster relief, being marketed
as a revenue stream with a potential for mass returns based upon the "brand" quality of saving
peoples lives in catastrophic events. The article is part and parcel with how private interests
have been dominated by profit driven incentives even in the most sacred trust areas of the public
domain of non-profit charities essentially built on the back of American volunteers. How AT&T
crony capital took over this organization and adopted it for their own monetary interest is not
just a story of lost vision but of totally perverted revision gone off track from its founding
purpose.
But make no mistake about it, this is only the tip of the iceberg where private asset stealth
is involved in milking and bilking the public trust. the medical Institutions generally across
the country have been insidiously going the same perverted path dependent way of revenue streaming
as health and wealth as the definition of healthy relief.
"... "Isn't it great that we have someone that really has had that business expertise in developing and working with a brand and recognizing the power of it ?" ..."
"... Local officials were furious. They say the Red Cross showed up lacking basic supplies such as Band-Aids, portable toilets, and tarps to protect against the rain. Instead the group's volunteers handed out Red Cross-branded bags of items that weren't urgently needed like lip balm and tissues. ..."
"... ' McGovern has fired almost all of the trained and experienced volunteers and staff, ' Maxwell told ProPublica, replacing them 'with people who have absolutely no knowledge of what the Red Cross is or does in a disaster. Not only is she setting these people up to fail but she is compromising the service delivery that is so important to the clients.' ..."
"... The Red Cross Board of Governors , largely composed of well paid business managers (e.g., a former Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs, a senior vice president of Eli Lilly, the chief financial officer of Home Depot, the executive vice president of Target), decided that a generic manager using a managerialist approach could cure the organization's perceived ills. The new CEO, who lacked any obvious experience or training relevant to the Red Cross mission, hired her former cronies at AT&T and Fidelity as managers. The new team cut costs, laid off employees, centralized management, and focused on marketing. The apparent results were fewer, less experienced, upset staff; fewer volunteers; declining interest in public health training products; and worsening disaster response. ..."
The American Red Cross is a storied non-profit organization. It provides disaster relief, provides
a major part of the US blood supply, and has important public health teaching functions, such as
teaching cardio-pulmonary resuscitation (look
here ). Nonetheless, its operations
have become increasingly controversial. ProPublica has been
investigating them for years
. The latest ProPublica report, entitled "The Corporate Takeover of the Red Cross," showed how
this renowned organization has suffered under generic management/
managerialism
, providing another case study showing how bad generic management and mangerialism are for health
care and public health.
We have frequently posted about what we have called
generic management
, the
manager's
coup d'etat , and
mission-hostile management. Managerialism wraps these concepts up into a single package. The
idea is that all organizations, including health care organizations, ought to be run people with
generic management training and background, not necessarily by people with specific backgrounds or
training in the organizations' areas of operation. Thus, for example, hospitals ought to be run by
MBAs, not doctors, nurses, or public health experts. Furthermore, all organizations ought to be run
according to the same basic principles of business management. These principles in turn ought to
be based on current
neoliberal dogma
, with the prime directive that short-term revenue is the primary goal (sometimes in the for-profit
sphere called the shareholder value principle, look
here .)
The ProPublica article showed how the leadership of the American Red Cross was given over to generic
managers; how they ran the organization based on generic business management principles; and how
the results were bad for the organization's mission. I will address each point with quotes from the
article, and add the commentary that was lacking in a straight investigative journalistic report.
The New CEO is a Generic Manager who Specialized in Marketing
Gail McGovern became Red Cross CEO in 2008. Her academic background was in the "quantitative sciences."
Her first job was as a computer programmer. Then,
McGovern climbed steadily through the ranks at AT&T. By the mid-1990s, she was head of the company's
consumer markets division .
Next,
McGovern left AT&T in 1998, then spent four years at Fidelity Investments, where she was promoted
to be the head of the retail mutual fund and brokerage business. Then came six years as a marketing
professor at Harvard Business School....
On the other hand, she apparently had no specific experience, training or expertise relating
to the mission of the Red Cross, and specifically no experience, training or expertise in public
health, health care, blood banking, or disaster relief.
She Believes in the Primacy of Marketing
Her academic writings spell out her theory of corporate leadership. 'In many organizations, marketing
exists far from the executive suite and boardroom,' she and her coauthors wrote in the Harvard
Business Review. Companies that make this mistake are doomed to 'low growth and declining margins.'
One could argue that perhaps in the long run, a good product that sells itself might be better for
a manufacturing firm than a temporarily persuasive marketing campaign. Even so,
the mission of the Red Cross
is not first to grow and make more money, or even to sell products, but instead it is
The American Red Cross prevents and alleviates human suffering in the face of emergencies
by mobilizing the power of volunteers and the generosity of donors.
She was Hired by the Red Cross to Promote Generic Management with Emphasis on Marketing.
Ms McGovern was hired at a time when the dogma that business managers ought to run everything
was becoming very prominent.
McGovern, selected after a global search by a headhunting firm, was seen as a candidate who
would bring private-sector methods to the nonprofit.
"Isn't it great that we have someone that really has had that business expertise in developing
and working with a brand and recognizing the power of it ?" [Red Cross Board Chairwoman Bonnie]
McElveen-Hunter told the Washington Post at the time.
Note that the Chairwoman of the Board of Governors herself was
a wealthy Republican donor appointed by President George W. Bush in 2004
According to Wikipedia
, she is a businesswoman whose undergraduate degree was in business, who worked for Bank of America
and then founded Pace Communications, and who also has no discernable experience or expertise in
health care, public health, or disaster relief.
The ProPublica article did not suggest that Ms McElveen-Hunter or anyone else really thought through
how a generica manager practicing managerialism would actually benefit the mission of the Red Cross.
The CEO Recruited Other Generic Managers
Furthermore,
As part of her effort to run the Red Cross more like a business, McGovern recruited more than
10 former AT&T executives to top positions. The move stirred resentment inside the organization,
with some longtime Red Cross hands referring to the charity as the 'AT&T retirement program.'
Again, one would expert a generic manager to feel most comfortable amongst others of her ilk. Again,
any consideration of whether running the Red Cross "more like a business" would improve its success
as a charity was not evident. The New Generic Managers Relied on Generic Management Dogma
They Established Centralized Control
The work of the Red Cross was traditionally done by local chapters. The new generic managers sought
to decrease their independence from "corporate." So,
Each of the Red Cross' more than 700 chapters had its own bank account, tracked its own volunteers,
and ran its own computer system. McGovern hoped to realize considerable savings by consolidating
these back-office functions, creating what she dubbed 'One Red Cross.'
The notions that different chapters might face different challenges, and hence that flexible local
control might do better addressing these challenges than would centralized top-down command were
not apparently considered.
They Cut Costs, Particularly Through Cutting Employee Benefits and Laying Them Off
and hence tried to enhance short-term revenue:
She also got to work cutting costs : there was a round of layoffs ; she killed the charity's generous
pension program and to employees' retirement accounts.
Also,
When McGovern was hired as CEO, there were over 700 Red Cross chapters across the country. Today,
there around 250, though some former chapter offices stayed open even as they were folded into other
chapters. The Red Cross declined to say how many offices it closed.
Over the course of McGovern's tenure, the number of paid employees fell from around 36,000 to
around 23,000 and the Red Cross today spends several hundred million dollars less a year than it
did in 2008. (Most of the staff cuts were from local chapters, not the blood business, though the
Red Cross declined to provide a breakdown.)
They Focused on Marketing and Public Relations
Early on,
consolidated, powerful, breathtaking marketing .'
a brand to die for ,' she often said.
In addition,
The Red Cross' chief of fundraising, a former colleague of McGovern's from Fidelity, told the
assembled officials that the organization should attract far more than the $520 million in donations
it was bringing in annually. ' Strength of brand ,' his PowerPoint said, 'justify results in
range.'
Also, CEO McGovern chose Jack McMaster to run the public health training operation, praising McMaster
to Red Cross staff as a master marketer and a trusted former colleague [at AT&T].
This suggests that McGovern placed far more priority on hiring "master marketers" than finding trustworthy
leaders. Of course, a CEO who is mainly a professional marketer may see marketing as central to whatever
organization she is running. The notion that the Red Cross had such a wonderful brand because it
used to do wonderful things did not apparently occur to the new generic marketers. Furthermore, the
notion that even "master marketing" may not hide the undermining of the organization's mission also
did not occur.
They Suppressed Opinions They Did Not Want to Here
As discontent among staff rose (see below), leading to anguish expressed on social media,
critical posts later disappeared from the Facebook page. Moderator Ryan Kaltenbaugh reminded participants
that the group was intended to be ' a POSITIVE forum sharing ideas, stories, pictures, links,
videos and more across our great country.'
' [P]lease (please) refrain from posting your negative personal views
To a leadership obsessed with marketing, appearance may have seemed to be everything. Yet again,
suppressing the bad news does not make what generated it disappear.
They Paid Themselves Very Well
We have often discussed
how executive compensation in health care now seems to rise beyond any level that could be justified
by the executives' actions and performance. A central problem with managerialism seems to be
that now top managers can virtually set their own pay. Thus, they have
become value
extractors, more focused on their own enrichment than their organizations' ultimate success.
The ProPublica article did not explicitly discuss executive compensation except after the failure
of the expansion plans by the "master marketer" McMaster,
Amid layoffs in the division last year, bonuses given to McMaster and his team raised eyebrows
within the Red Cross, a former headquarters official said.
In a statement, the Red Cross said the bonuses were appropriate because the division hit 'strategic
milestones' including establishing 'a national tele-service platform and national sales and service
delivery models.'
Regardless, the division failed to reach its real goal, expansion of its business.
Furthermore, there is evidence that during the reign of McGovern, the top managers as a group have
been very well paid, especially given that they were running a charity whose good works are largely
supported by contribuations and the taxpayers. We
noted in a 2011 post that
In 2009, then CEO Gail McGovern received over a million in total compensation, $1,032,022 to be
exact. Its President for Biomedical Services got $850,489. Its Executive VP for Biomedical Services
got $596,309. Twelve other executives got more than $250,000. Of those, ten got more than $350,000.
Since then, while Ms McGovern's compensation has actually declined, the number of very well paid
managers has actually grown. According to the organization's
latest
available IRS Form 990 filing, for 2013, Ms McGovern had total compensation of over $597,000,
and 15 managers had total compensation over $250,000, of these, 10 were over $400,000.
So despite all the problems afflicting the Red Cross (see below, and the larger ProPublica series),
the top managers still managed to pay themselves very well.
The Results were Bad
The Marketers' Best Laid Plans Led to Declining Contributions
McMaster laid out how the CPR unit would attract more customers while at the same time
hiking prices for classes and training materials in CPR, swimming, and babysitting. He believed
the Red Cross brand justified higher prices than were being charged around the country.
'We thought if we raised prices, American Heart [Association] would probably raise prices,
and life would be good,' McGovern said at a 2013 employee town hall meeting, referring to the
Red Cross' competitor in the CPR class business. 'Didn't happen.'
Also,
'A halfway competent market analysis would have told you that the bulk of our business was in
selling to small businesses who viewed us as a business expense,' recalled one former chapter
executive director. 'When the massive price increases arrived, it was too much and customers bailed.'
This illustrates that the generic managers did not even achieve their business goal, increasing sales
and increasing revenue. What did they care, though, if the bonuses still rolled in?
Centralized Control, Benefit Cuts, Layoffs, and the Marketing Focus Wounded Employee Morale and
Discouraged Volunteers. Those who push generic management practices often seem blind to their adverse
effects. So, many of those who taught classes - including volunteers who did the work for free -
quit after being turned off by headquarters'
poor communication .
Also,
But much like the organization's paid staff, many of its volunteers appear deeply disillusioned
. An internal survey obtained by ProPublica found volunteers around the country had a satisfaction
rate of 32 percent this year - down 20 points from last year.
Furthermore, driving the alienation, longtime employees and volunteers say, is a gulf that has opened
up between McGovern's executive suite and the rank and file who have spent decades in the mission-focused
nonprofit world.
She has surrounded herself with a tight-knit group of former telecom colleagues, they say. 'They're
all people from the period when AT&T imploded,' said one former senior official. ' The priorities
seem to be a reflection of what that team is comfortable with: sales and marketing .'
An internal assessment previously
reported
by ProPublica and NPR said national headquarters' focus on image slowed the delivery of relief
aid during Hurricane Isaac and Superstorm Sandy. Officials engaged in '
diverting assets for public relation purposes ,' according to the assessment.
Layoffs and Cutback Reduced Capacity to Respond to Disasters
One example was the response in West Virginia
In West Virginia, where several chapters have been shuttered, emergency management officials said
the group's response to recent disasters has been anemic . After a recent water shortage caused
by a chemical leak, the charity declined to provide any help to residents, the
Register-Herald of Beckley reported . Local officials described that as business as usual
for the charity. When a tornado hit in the southern part of the state, the Red Cross' inadequate
response left scores of victims without enough food , according to the newspaper.
Another was the response in northern California,
In Northern California last year, the Red Cross shuttered the
Napa County chapter and laid off disaster relief staff, according to an
presentation. Then, in September, a drought-fueled fire swept through the area, consuming more
than 75,000 acres and 1,200 homes.
Because of the issues with the Red Cross' shelter , nearly all of 1,000 displaced people at
the Napa County Fairgrounds - including the elderly, new mothers and children, and anyone with
a pet - ended up sleeping outside in tents, cars or RVs . The problems were first
reported by the Press Democrat newspaper.
Also,
Local officials were furious. They say the Red Cross showed up lacking basic supplies such
as Band-Aids, portable toilets, and tarps to protect against the rain. Instead the group's volunteers
handed out Red Cross-branded bags of items that weren't urgently needed like lip balm and tissues.
The Red Cross responders were inexperienced and, according to residents, not enough of them
spoke Spanish, the language of many of the fire victims.
In general, as told by former Red Cross volunteer Becky Maxwell, a self-described "die-hard Red
Cross person for 25 years," who quit after becoming increasingly frustrated,
' McGovern has fired almost all of the trained and experienced volunteers and staff, ' Maxwell
told ProPublica, replacing them 'with people who have absolutely no knowledge of what the Red
Cross is or does in a disaster. Not only is she setting these people up to fail but she is compromising
the service delivery that is so important to the clients.'
Summary
The
Red Cross Board of Governors , largely composed of well paid business managers (e.g., a former
Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs, a senior vice president of Eli Lilly, the chief financial officer
of Home Depot, the executive vice president of Target), decided that a generic manager using a managerialist
approach could cure the organization's perceived ills. The new CEO, who lacked any obvious experience
or training relevant to the Red Cross mission, hired her former cronies at AT&T and Fidelity as managers.
The new team cut costs, laid off employees, centralized management, and focused on marketing. The
apparent results were fewer, less experienced, upset staff; fewer volunteers; declining interest
in public health training products; and worsening disaster response.
Thus, once again,
generic managers
and managerialism
have laid low a formerly proud charity. Unfortunately, this one also happens to have vital public
health and disaster relief roles that have now been severely compromised.
Based on previous experience, it should come as no surprise that generic managers who do not know
much or care much about public health and health care, and who rely on a one-size fits all management
dogma uninformed by the public health or health care context or public health or health care values
will end up undermining patients' and the public's health.
The real surprise is that the generic managers have up to now had no problem maintaining the
managers'
coup d'etat , that is, their iron grip on the leadership of most public health and health care
organizations.
To prevent our ongoing downward spiral, we need to reverse the managers' coup d'etat, and return
leadership to those who understand health and health care, support their values, and are willing
to be accountable for doing so.
Great post - clarifies why I am seeing the increasingly generic promotion/fund-raising communication
"relationships" from many non-profit and advocacy groups lately. -Paul Rowan
I'm afraid Shkreli is not really a typical generic manager, and certainly not typical of the
CEO of a big pharma (or other health care) corporation.
Shkreli is a small time player.
Also, he is basically a hedge fund guy, and I don't believe there is any love lost between
big corporate CEOs and hedgies. Finally, Shkreli was willing to say out loud what most big corporate
managers would not: it's all about the money.
"'No one wants to say it, no one's proud of it, but this is a capitalist society, a capitalist
system and capitalist rules,' he said in an interview at the Forbes Healthcare Summit this month.
'And my investors expect me to maximize profits, not to minimize them or go half or go 70 percent
but to go to 100 percent of the profit curve.'"
So I wouldn't be surprised if the big-time managerialists are cheering now that he was arrested.
They can use his arrest to pretend that regulation and law enforcement are tough, and that the
big-time managers don't have impunity. Furthermore, they can claim that he was just the rare bad
apple.
However, a reader of this blog can see the problems are systemic. See in particular:
The message matters...something that eludes comprehension by
Democrats... Question is are they really this stupid, or are
they paid to be this stupid?
"How did [the healthcare
debate] get to this point? A point where Harvard researchers
are warning of 217,000 additional deaths over the next decade
from a loss of health coverage? Part of the blame has to lie
with the Democrats, who failed to heed Luntz's advice to the
Republicans...
First, in defending Obamacare, they lacked "words that
work." For instance, how many people know, understand or even
care what an "individual mandate" is? How about insurance
"exchanges"? Or the "public option"? These technical terms
and phrases have obscured more than they have clarified. They
have also played into the hands of the Republicans, who have
worked hard to ensure that the public view health care only
through a partisan lens.
Remember: around one in three Americans is unaware of the
fact that there is no difference between Obamacare and the
Affordable Care Act (ACA) - they are one and the same. Many
of these people tell pollsters that they like the ACA but
dislike Obamacare. (Isn't it odd how so many Americans' view
of a health care system changes when you put the
foreign-sounding name of a black man in front of it?)
Second, Democrats have turned down opportunity after
opportunity to offer a comprehensive health care alternative
that guarantees coverage to all Americans (unlike Obamacare,
which leaves around 27 million Americans uninsured.) During
the Democratic primaries, Hillary Clinton said a single-payer
"health care for all" system would "never, ever come to
pass." Inspiring, huh?
As for those on the left like Bernie Sanders and -
belatedly - Elizabeth Warren, who are keen to offer a
progressive alternative to both Trumpcare and Obamacare in
the form of guaranteed, government-funded health care for
all, they may have a clear and inspiring policy alternative
but whether they have a clear and inspiring message for it
remains to be seen. For example, according to a February 2016
poll by the Kaiser Family Foundation, "nearly two thirds
(64%) of Americans say they have a positive reaction to the
term 'Medicare-for-all,' and most (57%) say the same about
'guaranteed universal health coverage.' Fewer have a positive
reaction to 'single payer health insurance system' (44%) or
'socialized medicine' (38%)."
The words don't work and, as a result, ignorance abounds.
"About half (53%) of Democrats say they have a very positive
reaction to 'Medicare-for-all' compared with 21 percent who
say the same for 'single payer health insurance system,'"
according to the Kaiser poll. But to be clear:
"Medicare-for-all" and "single payer" refer to the same
exact thing.
So then "Medicare-for-all" must be the way to go, right?
Rather than the bureaucratic-sounding and yawn-inducing
"single payer"? Perhaps. Invoking Medicare to make the case
for a system in which the government covers the cost of all
health care claims, however, may not be the silver bullet
that some on the left seem to think it is. Not everyone
associates Medicare with the government. Remember the
anti-Obamacare town halls in the summer of 2009, where
attendees carried placards that read "Keep government out of
my Medicare"? An August 2009 poll found that 39% of Americans
said they wanted government to "stay out of Medicare" - which
is, of course, impossible.
Why don't progressives go with the simpler option of
calling their single-payer proposal "universal health care"?
Or "health care for all"? In San Francisco, a single payer
system called "Healthy San Francisco" was launched a decade
ago and has had very high approval ratings. How about
Sanders, Warren et al push for a federal version called
"Healthy America"?"
https://theintercept.com/2017/06/28/memo-to-democrats-you-need-a-clear-message-for-universal-healthcare/
Researchers at the University of Washington have published a
study that finds a 9.4% decline in hours of work for low wage
workers, earning under $19 an hour. Trouble is the study
doesn't appear to take account of wage bracket creep so the
hours of workers making just under $19 an hour a year ago
just vanish when they get a raise to above $19 an hour.
The EPI, Peter Dorman and Sandwichman have all weighed in with
criticisms. But in all likelihood this seriously flawed study
will become an urban legend "proving" that a higher minimum
wage is bad for poor people.
Minimum Wage Increases, Wages, and Low-Wage Employment:
Evidence from Seattle
By Ekaterina Jardim, Mark C. Long, Robert Plotnick, Emma van
Inwegen, Jacob Vigdor, and Hilary Wething
This paper evaluates the wage, employment, and hours
effects of the first and second phase-in of the Seattle
Minimum Wage Ordinance, which raised the minimum wage from
$9.47 to $11 per hour in 2015 and to $13 per hour in 2016.
Using a variety of methods to analyze employment in all
sectors paying below a specified real hourly rate, we
conclude that the second wage increase to $13 reduced hours
worked in low-wage jobs by around 9 percent, while hourly
wages in such jobs increased by around 3 percent.
Consequently, total payroll fell for such jobs, implying that
the minimum wage ordinance lowered low-wage employees'
earnings by an average of $125 per month in 2016. Evidence
attributes more modest effects to the first wage increase. We
estimate an effect of zero when analyzing employment in the
restaurant industry at all wage levels, comparable to many
prior studies.
Research like that ought not be published, timeline used is
too short to be reliable or valid and in all probability they
used data skewed from limited sources.
Seattle's Minimum Wage Experience 2015-16
By Michael Reich, Sylvia Allegretto, and Anna Godoey
Abstract
This brief on Seattle's minimum wage experience represents
the first in a series that Center on Wage and Employment
Dynamics will be issuing on the effects of the current wave
of minimum wage policies-those that range from $12 to $15.
Upcoming CWED reports will present similar studies of
Chicago, Oakland, San Francisco, San Jose and New York City,
among others. The timing of these reports will depend in part
upon when quality data become available. We focus here on
Seattle because it was one of the early movers.
Seattle implemented the first phase of its minimum wage
law on April 1, 2015, raising minimum wages from the
statewide $9.47 to $10 or $11, depending upon business size,
presence of tipped workers and employer provision of health
insurance. The second phase began on January 1, 2016, further
raising the minimum to four different levels, ranging from
$10.50 to $13, again depending upon employer size, presence
of tipped workers and provision of health insurance. The tip
credit provision was introduced into a previously no tip
credit environment. Any assessment of the impact of Seattle's
minimum wage policy is complicated by this complex array of
minimum wage rates. This complexity continues in 2017, when
the range of the four Seattle minimum wages widened, from $11
to $15, and the state minimum wage increased to $11.
We analyze county and city-level data for 2009 to 2016 on
all employees counted in the Quarterly Census of Employment
and Wages and use the "synthetic control" method to
rigorously identify the causal effects of Seattle's minimum
wage policy upon wages and employment. Our study focuses on
the Seattle food services industry. This industry is an
intense user of minimum wage workers; if wage and employment
effects occur, they should be detectable in this industry. We
use county level data from other areas in Washington State
and the rest of the U.S. to construct a synthetic control
group that matches Seattle for a nearly six year period
before the minimum wage policy was implemented. Our methods
ensure that our synthetic control group meets accepted
statistical standards, including not being contaminated by
wage spillovers from Seattle. We scale our outcome measures
so that they apply to all sectors, not just food services.
Our results show that wages in food services did
increase-indicating the policy achieved its goal-and our
estimates of the wage increases are in line with the lion's
share of results in previous credible minimum wage studies.
Wages increased much less among full-service restaurants,
indicating that employers made use of the tip credit
component of the law. Employment in food service, however,
was not affected, even among the limited-service restaurants,
many of them franchisees, for whom the policy was most
binding. These findings extend our knowledge of minimum wage
effects to policies as high as $13.
How a Rising Minimum Wage Affects Jobs in Seattle
By NOAM SCHEIBER
Three years ago, Seattle became one of the first
jurisdictions in the nation to embrace a $15-an-hour minimum
wage, to be phased in over several years.
Over the past week, two studies have purported to
demonstrate the effects of the first stages of that increase
- but with starkly diverging results.
The first study, by a team of researchers at the
University of California, Berkeley, supports the conclusion
of numerous studies before it, that increasing the minimum
wage up to a level that is about half or less of an area's
typical wage leads to at most a small reduction in
employment.
That roughly describes Seattle, which first increased its
minimum wage to $11 an hour from $9.47 for large businesses
in April 2015, then to $13 an hour for many of those
businesses in January 2016. (Small businesses, and large ones
that provide health insurance for workers, had lower
increases.)
The Berkeley study focused on the restaurant industry
because of the high proportion of restaurant workers who are
paid the minimum wage. It found that for every 10 percent
that the minimum wage rose, wages in the industry rose nearly
1 percent, and that there was no discernible effect on
employment.
By contrast, the second study, which a group of
researchers at the University of Washington released on
Monday, suggests that the minimum wage has had a far more
negative effect on employment than even skeptics of
minimum-wage increases typically find. (Neither study has
been formally peer-reviewed.)
The University of Washington authors held one significant
advantage over other economists studying the issue: detailed
data on hours and earnings for workers affected by the
increase.
This data allowed the researchers to measure the effects
of the minimum wage on workers in all industries rather than
relying on restaurants as a stand-in, a common technique. It
also allowed them to measure a change in hours worked, a
potentially more complete indication of the effect of a
minimum-wage increase than the employee head count that many
studies use....
Real Labor Productivity increases can be the result of
increased work intensity
Shrewd redesign of tasks
Or
Use of additional or better technical systems
[Taxes may go up but lower costs than private insurance could give many people a net savings.]
............
We will describe the single payer system in Canada, because Canada is physically close and close in values to those of
U.S. citizens.
Canada provides free medical services through private entities. The government sets federal standards to assure quality
of care. The individual's health remains confidential between a person and his or her physician. In each Canadian province,
each doctor submits the insurance claim against the provincial insurer. The person who gets healthcare does not get involved
in billing and reclaim.
The Canadian government keeps advertising at a minimum. Costs are paid through funding from income taxes. There are
no deductibles on basic health care and co-pays are kept extremely low. Provinces issue a health card to each individual
who enrolls and everyone receives the same level of care. There is no variety of plans because all essential basic care
is covered, including maternity and infertility problems. Dental and vision care may or may not be covered depending
on the Province. Some provinces provide private supplemental plans for patients who desire private rooms if hospitalized.
Cosmetic surgery and some elective surgery are generally not covered. These can be paid out-of-pocket or through private
insurers. One's health coverage is not affected by loss or change of jobs, as long as premiums are up to date. There
are no lifetime limits or exclusions for pre-existing conditions.
Canadians chose their family physician (called a general practitioner or GP). If the person wants to see a specialist,
the GP will make a referral. The median wait time to see a specialist physician is a month. The median wait time for
diagnostic services such as MRI and CAT scans is two weeks. The median wait time for surgery is four weeks.
Pharmaceutical medications are covered by public funds for the elderly or indigent, or through employment-based private
insurance. The Canadian government negotiates drug prices with suppliers to control costs.
Physician incomes in Canada rose initially after the single payer system was implemented. A reduction in physician
salaries followed, many fearing this would be a long-term result of government-run healthcare. However, by the beginning
of the 21st century, medical professionals were again among Canada's top earners.
The main thing to notice is that Canada's healthcare cost to its GDP is 11 percent whereas the U.S. cost is 17 percent
of the GDP.
After Fire, Britain Asks if Deregulation Has Gone Too Far
By STEVEN ERLANGER
The deadly blaze at a high rise has helped crystallize resentment over the country's embrace
of neoliberalism, privatization and austerity.
[ That dozens of high-rise apartment buildings in Britain could have been legally wrapped in
flammable coatings, is beyond what I would have thought possible. ]
"... It is not becoming involuntarily unemployed that is devastating. It is the loss of income security that sucks. I was laid off 6/16/2015, but I was 66 years and 2 months old having earned 37 years of service credit in our defined benefits pension plan and then granted an additional 6 years pension service credit by virtue of taking my severance benefits in the form of enhanced retirement. ..."
"... I had wanted to work six more years so I could take survivor benefit and still have a sufficient retirement income, but the severance package allowed me that freedom instead. ..."
"... There is no such thing as free trade. At best, there are treaties which successively approximate free trade. The problem comes in with who negotiates these agreements, the agreements largely addressing the concerns of those selected to do so, while ignoring the concerns of those not selected to do so. Which is the entire problem. Capital is selected; labor is not. ..."
"... So who ends up liking these things? Capital. Who ends up not liking them? Labor and environment. Duh? Is this really that hard to figure out? ..."
"... "Free trade" (whatever that is) is not necessarily fair trade. Free trade is a slogan special interest use to protect their capture of trade profits. Fair trade would be the attempt to manage trade such that the maximum number of winners is produced. ..."
David Glasner (I cut quite a bit -- the original is more than twice as long):
What's so Great about Free Trade? : Free trade is about as close to a sacred tenet as can
be found in classical and neoclassical economic theory. ... Despite the love and devotion that
the doctrine of free trade inspires in economists, the doctrine ... has never been popular among
the masses. ...
The key to understanding that disconnect is, I suggest, the way in which economists have been
trained to think about individual and social welfare, which, it seems to me, is totally different
from how most people think about their well-being. In the standard utility-maximization framework,
individual well-being is a monotonically increasing function of individual consumption, leisure
being one of the "goods" being consumed, so that reductions in hours worked is, when consumption
of everything else is held constant, welfare-increasing. Even at a superficial level, this seems
totally wrong. ...
What people do is a far more important determinant of their overall estimation of how well-off
they are than what they consume. When you meet someone, you are likely, if you are at all interested
in finding out about the person, to ask him or her about what he or she does, not about what he
or she consumes. Most of the waking hours of an adult person are spent in work-related activities.
... It seems to me that what matters to most people is the nature of their relationships with
their family and friends and the people they work with, and whether they get satisfaction from
their jobs or from a sense that they are accomplishing or are on their way to accomplish some
important life goals. ...
Moreover, insofar as people depend on being employed in order to finance their routine consumption
purchases..., the unplanned loss of their current job would be a personal disaster, which means
that being employed is the dominant – the overwhelming – determinant of their well-being. Ordinary
people seem to understand how closely their well-being is tied to the stability of their employment,
which is why people are so viscerally opposed to policies that, they fear, could increase the
likelihood of losing their jobs.
To think that an increased chance of losing one's job in exchange for a slight gain in purchasing
power owing to the availability of low-cost imports is an acceptable trade-off for most workers
does not seem at all realistic. Questioning the acceptability of this trade-off doesn't mean that
... in principle, the gains from free trade are[n't] large enough to provide monetary compensation
to workers who lose their jobs, but I do question whether such compensation is possible in practice
or that the compensation would be adequate for the loss of psychic well-being associated with
losing one's job, even if money income is maintained. ...
The psychic effects of losing a job (an increase in leisure!) are ignored by the standard calculations
of welfare effects in which well-being is identified with, and measured by, consumption. And these
losses are compounded and amplified when they are concentrated in specific communities and regions...
The goal of this post is not to make an argument for protectionist policies, let alone for
any of the candidates arguing for protectionist policies. The aim is to show how inadequate the
standard arguments for free trade are in responding to the concerns of the people who feel that
they have been hurt by free-trade policies or feel that the jobs that they have now are vulnerable
to continued free trade and ever-increasing globalization. I don't say that responses can't be
made, just that they haven't been made.
The larger philosophical or methodological point is that ... economic theory can tell us that
an excise tax on sugar tends to cause an increase in the price, and a reduction in output, of
sugar. But the idea that we can reliably make welfare comparisons between alternative states of
the world when welfare is assumed to be a function of consumption, and that nothing else matters,
is simply preposterous. And it's about time that economists enlarged their notions of what constitutes
well-being if they want to make useful recommendations about the welfare implications of public
policy, especially trade policy.
The happiness literature on the impact of involuntary unemployment on happiness is quite large,
with people like David Blanchflower having played important roles. An offhand summary is that
becoming involuntarily unemployed is indeed one of the events that is most devastating to the
happiness of most people, with only a few events worse, including having one's spouse die or being
thrown in jail.
It is not becoming involuntarily unemployed that is devastating. It is the loss of income
security that sucks. I was laid off 6/16/2015, but I was 66 years and 2 months old having earned
37 years of service credit in our defined benefits pension plan and then granted an additional
6 years pension service credit by virtue of taking my severance benefits in the form of enhanced
retirement.
I had wanted to work six more years so I could take survivor benefit and still have a sufficient
retirement income, but the severance package allowed me that freedom instead.
With firms no longer offering defined benefits pension plans then we need to expand social
security into a full income pension plan. We need to increase unemployment benefits as well. Once
we have paid for that then the plutocrats will find that they are better off paying US workers
to make stuff since all their global price arbitrage profits have been clawed back.
I think this is an important factor. It is certainly the case that a certain level of consumption
increases happiness, but beyond a fairly moderate level, I do not think it actually adds much.
Another important factor is having something meaningful to do with your time. For most people,
that is work. Boredom is a serious problem among the retired.
We have more then just skill crushing, job experience crushing. Impacts of domestic production
erasing imports. We have the implied competition on wages. Of import threats
Economists largely ignore distribution of benefits, focusing on efficiency and the 'total good.'
How that total good is divvied up is largely irrelevant to them, unless the populace gets testy.
In fact, most people would be better off if the economy were slightly smaller but distributed
much more evenly. Economists just can't seem to wrap their heads around that concept.
[Not sure which this that you are agreeing with. So, let's say that income security means a
roof over are heads and food to eat for the whole family. Then there is this boredom thingy. With
a little acreage and a sound mind and body then staying occupied, productive (in some manner of
speaking - a rose is a rose is a rose), and happy is a piece of cake. A tenement room with nothing
but a TV would be death sentence for me. If not for money then I would never have needed to work
for someone else. I see good honest work to do everywhere I look.]
He came close but he missed the major point. SECURITY.
What do most people see as their life goal? To raise a family. How long does it take? Decades.
Flexibility isn't a boon - it is a disaster for most people.
If you only look at a static picture of the world (which is the traditional view of economists)
how can you possibility see this?
"He came close but he missed the major point. SECURITY..."
[Too bad. As I was reading this I was liking it so much that it had already elevated my former
opinion of David Glasner, technically elegant, all the way up to topically relevant and possibly
even socially astute, but from what you say then I must put a hold on that socially astute. I
guess I had better read the entire article before I begin to comment further.]
You are correct. Glasner missed the point on security, so he also missed the point that if
income is maintained then that would cover the lion's share of well being. Glasner is correct
that money is not everything, just as consumption is not everything, but that really does come
down to just how much money that we are talking about. I worked a long time contributing into
a traditional pension plan. I took great pride in my work, but I have not missed my job or felt
inadequate because of the lack of that purpose for a minute since I was laid off on 6/16/2015.
That's because between my social security and pension incomes then I can still make my mortgage
payments and all my other bills and due to my reduced expenses on payroll taxes, clothes, and
gas have more money left over for landscaping and other home projects than I did when I was working.
If I was eating cat food or living under a bridge then I would be feeling much worse about having
been laid off.
There is no such thing as free trade. At best, there are treaties which successively approximate
free trade. The problem comes in with who negotiates these agreements, the agreements largely
addressing the concerns of those selected to do so, while ignoring the concerns of those not selected
to do so. Which is the entire problem. Capital is selected; labor is not. (Neither much is
environmental.)
So who ends up liking these things? Capital. Who ends up not liking them? Labor and environment.
Duh? Is this really that hard to figure out?
[Sure there is. Anne complains about this as well. But a large part of maintaining plutocracy
within the framework of a democratically electoral republic is the copious use of misleading euphemisms.
We all know what they really mean, or at least all of us here reading and commenting at EV know
what they mean. My guess is that unemployed workers in the rustbelt know what they mean as well.
Republicans talk about being free all of the time, but what they really are is just cheap.
There is nothing free in life. Most people know this intuitively. There are choices and consequences.
One consequence of the overuse of "free trade" is the emergence of fair trade. As far as I can
tell the rebranding will hardly put a dent in the arbitrage profits. ]
The United States benefits and historically has benefitted by being one large trading block.
Increases in wealth are linked to improvements in transportation even today.
One stumbling block in international trade is the restriction on movement of labor. This is
a huge problem for the EU. Another problem is distribution of the profits from trade. How much
should be captured by private interests and how much should go to the public good. Should some
profits from trade be returned from one country to another? This is often done through severance
taxes or export fees.
"Free trade" (whatever that is) is not necessarily fair trade. Free trade is a slogan special
interest use to protect their capture of trade profits. Fair trade would be the attempt to manage
trade such that the maximum number of winners is produced.
It seems to me that a couple of obvious points are being missed.
1) The "gains from free trade" argument is simply that under conditions of trade, more "stuff"
will be produced than under conditions of autarky, so theoretically there will be more available
for everyone. That says nothing about how those gains are distributed, i.e., there will be individual
winners and losers. In practice, those gains never seem to actually get redistributed so it's
impossible to say everyone is made better off.
2) What is the root cause of comparative advantage? The textbooks tell us - differences in
initial factor endowments, technology, and tastes. What does that mean in a world where a company
in a developed company can pick up its capital (and implicitly, technology) and move it to a lesser
developed country with cheaper labor, because capital is far more mobile than labor, in order
to produce goods to supply its home market (where tastes differ)?
Glasner did not really miss your point # 1, but he muddled the message a bit over the benefits
of redistribution. Almost everyone, but especially those trained in economics, seems to miss your
point #2. The most basic premise of comparative advantage has long been broken by technology,
but the fiction of that old saw serves the price arbitrage motives of capital so well that it
has been preserved in amber like the fossilized bug it is.
"Free trade" has produced some of the most contentious political debates of our times. In a
famous April 2000 article in the New Republic (*), economist Joseph Stiglitz argued, "Economic
policy is today perhaps the most important part of America's interaction with the rest of the
world. And yet the culture of international economic policy in the world's most powerful democracy
is not democratic." During the Bush years, economic policy received far less attention in political
discussion than before; the use of military force took center stage. However, the trade and development
debate went on, and it continues to affect fundamental questions of global poverty, inequality,
and opportunity. Under a new Democratic administration-or under a Republican administration that
demotes the neocons in favor of the more traditional, realist foreign policy establishment-it
is likely that economic policy will again become the most important part of America's interaction
with the world. And it is likely that it will remain profoundly undemocratic.
The injustices of neoliberal trade policy and the hypocrisy of U.S. stances in international
negotiations have produced an upheaval in multilateral institutions like the WTO, and this has
helped to transform the debate about the global economy. But trade is also an important domestic
issue. Today, trade policy plays an important role in the battle for the soul of the Democratic
Party.
One of the major accomplishments of the Clinton administration was to move to the fore of the
Party a faction led by the centrist, corporate-friendly Democratic Leadership Council. Working
with pro-"free trade" Republicans, Clinton and the DLC made passing the North American Free Trade
agreement (NAFTA) in 1993 and approving U.S. entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in
1994 into bipartisan crusades. The coalition in favor of corporate globalization was always tenuous,
however. In recent years, especially as the Bush administration implemented an increasing belligerent
foreign policy, the "free trade" coalition has frayed. ...
What I Learned at the World Economic Crisis
By Joseph Stiglitz
Next week's meeting of the International Monetary Fund will bring to Washington, D.C., many
of the same demonstrators who trashed the World Trade Organization in Seattle last fall. They'll
say the IMF is arrogant. They'll say the IMF doesn't really listen to the developing countries
it is supposed to help. They'll say the IMF is secretive and insulated from democratic accountability.
They'll say the IMF's economic "remedies" often make things worse--turning slowdowns into recessions
and recessions into depressions.
And they'll have a point. I was chief economist at the World Bank from 1996 until last November,
during the gravest global economic crisis in a half-century. I saw how the IMF, in tandem with
the U.S. Treasury Department, responded. And I was appalled.
The global economic crisis began in Thailand, on July 2, 1997. The countries of East Asia were
coming off a miraculous three decades: incomes had soared, health had improved, poverty had fallen
dramatically. Not only was literacy now universal, but, on international science and math tests,
many of these countries outperformed the United States. Some had not suffered a single year of
recession in 30 years.
But the seeds of calamity had already been planted. In the early '90s, East Asian countries
had liberalized their financial and capital markets--not because they needed to attract more funds
(savings rates were already 30 percent or more) but because of international pressure, including
some from the U.S. Treasury Department. These changes provoked a flood of short-term capital--that
is, the kind of capital that looks for the highest return in the next day, week, or month, as
opposed to long-term investment in things like factories. In Thailand, this short-term capital
helped fuel an unsustainable real estate boom. And, as people around the world (including Americans)
have painfully learned, every real estate bubble eventually bursts, often with disastrous consequences.
Just as suddenly as capital flowed in, it flowed out. And, when everybody tries to pull their
money out at the same time, it causes an economic problem. A big economic problem.
The last set of financial crises had occurred in Latin America in the 1980s, when bloated public
deficits and loose monetary policies led to runaway inflation. There, the IMF had correctly imposed
fiscal austerity (balanced budgets) and tighter monetary policies, demanding that governments
pursue those policies as a precondition for receiving aid. So, in 1997 the IMF imposed the same
demands on Thailand. Austerity, the fund's leaders said, would restore confidence in the Thai
economy. As the crisis spread to other East Asian nations--and even as evidence of the policy's
failure mounted--the IMF barely blinked, delivering the same medicine to each ailing nation that
showed up on its doorstep.
I thought this was a mistake....
William
Getting fired from your job is one of the most stressful events one can experience in life.
Two psychiatrists once conducted a study to attempt to discover how stressful various events
were. They did a massive survey of 5000 people.
Losing your job was calculated to be a 47/100. To compare, having your home foreclosed on was
a 30 and the death of a close friend was a 37. The only things more stressful than losing your
job were things regarding beginning or ending a marriage, and going to prison.
It's understandable why most people are very, very risk averse when it comes to job loss.
See: Holmes TH, Rahe RH (1967). "The Social Readjustment Rating Scale". J Psychosom Res 11
(2): 213–8.
"... Pick up an introductory textbook of economics and your chances of finding an objective assessment of a system of this kind are very low indeed. Instead, what you'll find between the covers is a ringing endorsement of free trade, usually in the most propagandistic sort of language. Most likely it will rehash the arguments originally made by British economist David Ricardo, in the early 19th century, to prove that free trade inevitably encourages every nation to develop whatever industries are best suited to its circumstances, and so produces more prosperity for everybody. Those arguments will usually be spiced up with whatever more recent additions appeal to the theoretical tastes of the textbook's author or authors, and will plop the whole discussion into a historical narrative that insists that once upon a time, there were silly people who didn't like free trade, but now we all know better. ..."
"... There's a rich irony here, because not much more than a century ago, a healthy skepticism toward the claims of free trade ideology used to be standard in the United States. At that time, Britain filled the role in the world system that the United States fills today, complete with the global empire, the gargantuan military with annual budget to match, and the endless drumbeat of brushfire wars across what would one day be called the Third World, and British economists were accordingly the world's loudest proponents of free trade, while the United States filled the role of rising industrial power that China fills today, complete with sky-high trade barriers that protected its growing industries, not to mention a distinctly cavalier attitude toward intellectual property laws. ..."
"... Free trade is simply one of the mechanisms of empire in the age of industrialism, one part of the wealth pump that concentrated the wealth of the globe in Britain during the years of its imperial dominion and does the same thing for the benefit of the United States today. Choose any other mechanism of empire, from the web of military treaties that lock allies and subject nations into a condition of dependence on the imperial center, through the immense benefits that accrue to whatever nation issues the currency in which international trade is carried out, to the way that the charitable organizations of the imperial center-missionary churches in Victoria's time, for example, or humanitarian NGOs in ours-further the agenda of empire with such weary predictability: in every case, you'll find a haze of doubletalk surrounding a straightforward exercise of imperial domination. It requires a keen eye to look past the rhetoric and pay attention to the direction the benefits flow. ..."
"... Follow the flow of wealth and you understand empire. That's true in a general and a more specific sense, and both of these have their uses. In the general sense, paying attention to shifts in wealth between the imperial core and the nations subject to it is an essential antidote to the popular sort of nonsense-popular among tame intellectuals such as Thomas Friedman ..."
"... Free trade is only fair if all nations in the agreement start from the same point. If you choose not to invest in development, that's your own lookout, but don't complain if you end up under the de facto control of the one who did. ..."
Regarding Kirill's post about that shibboleth of contemporary economics, free trade.
Pick up an introductory textbook of economics and your chances of finding an objective
assessment of a system of this kind are very low indeed. Instead, what you'll find between the
covers is a ringing endorsement of free trade, usually in the most propagandistic sort of language.
Most likely it will rehash the arguments originally made by British economist David Ricardo, in
the early 19th century, to prove that free trade inevitably encourages every nation to develop
whatever industries are best suited to its circumstances, and so produces more prosperity for
everybody. Those arguments will usually be spiced up with whatever more recent additions appeal
to the theoretical tastes of the textbook's author or authors, and will plop the whole discussion
into a historical narrative that insists that once upon a time, there were silly people who didn't
like free trade, but now we all know better.
What inevitably gets omitted from the textbook is any discussion, based in actual historical
examples, of the way that free trade works out in practice That would be awkward, because in the
real world, throughout history, free trade pretty consistently hasn't done what Ricardo's rhetoric
and today's economics textbooks claim it will do. Instead, it amplifies the advantages of wealthy
nations and the disadvantages of poorer ones, concentrating capital and income in the hands of
those who already have plenty of both while squeezing out potential rivals and forcing down wages
across the board. This is why every nation in history that's ever developed a significant industrial
sector to its economy has done so by rejecting the ideology of free trade, and building its industries
behind a protective wall of tariffs, trade barriers, and capital controls, while those nations
that have listened to the advice of the tame economists of the British and American empires have
one and all remained mired in poverty and dependence as long as they did so.
There's a rich irony here, because not much more than a century ago, a healthy skepticism
toward the claims of free trade ideology used to be standard in the United States. At that time,
Britain filled the role in the world system that the United States fills today, complete with
the global empire, the gargantuan military with annual budget to match, and the endless drumbeat
of brushfire wars across what would one day be called the Third World, and British economists
were accordingly the world's loudest proponents of free trade, while the United States filled
the role of rising industrial power that China fills today, complete with sky-high trade barriers
that protected its growing industries, not to mention a distinctly cavalier attitude toward intellectual
property laws.
One result of that latter detail is that pirate editions of the Encyclopedia Britannica were
produced and sold by a number of American firms all through the 19th century. Most of these editions
differed from their British originals in an interesting way, though. The entry for "Free Trade"
in the original editions repeated standard British free-trade economic theory, repeating Ricardo's
arguments and dismissing criticisms of free trade out of hand; the American editors by and large
took the trouble to replace these with entries critiquing free trade ideology in much the same
terms I've used in this post. The replacement of pro- with anti-free trade arguments in these
pirate editions, interestingly enough, attracted far more denunciation in the British press than
the piracy itself got, which shows that the real issues were tolerably well understood at the
time.
When it comes to free trade and its alternatives, that level of understanding is nowhere near
so common these days, at least in Britain -I've long suspected that businessmen and officials
in Beijing have a very precise understanding of what free trade actually means, though it would
hardly be to their advantage just now to talk about that with any degree of candor. In the West
even those who speak most enthusiastically about relocalization and the end of corporate globalism
apparently haven't noticed how effectively tariffs, trade barriers, and capital controls foster
domestic industries and rebuild national economies-or perhaps it's just that too many of them
aren't willing to consider paying the kind of prices for their iPods and Xboxes that would follow
the enactment of a reasonable tariff, much less the prices that would be required if we had the
kind of trade barriers that built the American economy and could build it again, and bluecollar
First World workers were paid First World wages to make them.
Free trade is simply one of the mechanisms of empire in the age of industrialism, one part
of the wealth pump that concentrated the wealth of the globe in Britain during the years of its
imperial dominion and does the same thing for the benefit of the United States today. Choose any
other mechanism of empire, from the web of military treaties that lock allies and subject nations
into a condition of dependence on the imperial center, through the immense benefits that accrue
to whatever nation issues the currency in which international trade is carried out, to the way
that the charitable organizations of the imperial center-missionary churches in Victoria's time,
for example, or humanitarian NGOs in ours-further the agenda of empire with such weary predictability:
in every case, you'll find a haze of doubletalk surrounding a straightforward exercise of imperial
domination. It requires a keen eye to look past the rhetoric and pay attention to the direction
the benefits flow.
Follow the flow of wealth and you understand empire. That's true in a general and a more
specific sense, and both of these have their uses. In the general sense, paying attention to shifts
in wealth between the imperial core and the nations subject to it is an essential antidote to
the popular sort of nonsense-popular among tame intellectuals such as Thomas Friedman, at
least, and their audiences in the imperial core-that imagines empire as a sort of social welfare
program for conquered nations. Whether it's some old pukka sahib talking about how the British
Empire brought railroads and good government to India, or his neoconservative equivalent talking
about how the United States ought to export the blessings of democracy and the free market to
the Middle East or the former Soviet Union it's codswallop, and the easiest way to see that it's
codswallop is to notice that the price paid for whatever exports are under discussion normally
amounts to the systematic impoverishment of the subject nation.
Free trade is only fair if all nations in the agreement start from the same point. If you
choose not to invest in development, that's your own lookout, but don't complain if you end up
under the de facto control of the one who did. But when a highly-developed nation espouses
a free trade agreement with a nation that is just starting, it should be fairly easy to forecast
who will come out ahead on the deal.
Did you uhhh write that yourself? Because it's pretty awesome.
I agree with Mark, your comment is great. Especially when you mention that these matters were
much more clear to the general public a century ago, than they are now.
This is what List wrote (National System):
It is a very common clever device that when anyone has attained the summit of greatness,
he kicks away the ladder by which he has climbed up, in order to deprive others of the means of
climbing up after him. In this lies the secret of the cosmopolitical doctrine of Adam Smith, and
of the cosmopolitical tendencies of his great contemporary William Pitt, and of all his successors
in the British Government administrations. Any nation which by means of protective duties and
restrictions on navigation has raised her manufacturing power and her navigation to such a degree
of development that no other nation can sustain free competition with her, can do nothing wiser
than to throw away these ladders of her greatness, to preach to other nations the benefits of
free trade, and to declare in penitent tones that she has hitherto wandered in the paths of error,
and has now for the first time succeeded in discovering the truth.
"... The three percent of annual wage income lost to higher drug spending over the past 40 years makes a big difference to working individuals and families. This increase in annual spending averages out to roughly $2,400 per household. CMS projections, combined with projections on wage income growth from the Congressional Budget Office, suggest that spending on prescription drugs will increase further through 2025. This ratio is expected to exceed five percent by 2024. ..."
Prescription Drug Spending is Consuming a Bigger Share of
Wages
By Brian Dew and Dean Baker
Prescription drugs are a large and growing share of national
income. While it is generally recognized that drugs are expensive,
many people are unaware of how large a share of their income
goes to paying for drugs because much of it goes through third
party payers, specifically insurance companies and the government.
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) produce
projections of national expenditures on prescription drugs through
2025, along with historical estimates dating back to 1960. As
shown below, prescription drug spending from 1960 to 1980 was
equivalent to about one percent of total wage and salary income.
In the years leading up to the passage of the Bayh-Dole act in
1980, wage income was rising faster than spending on prescription
drugs. As a result, the share of wages spent on prescription
drugs was actually falling, reaching a low in 1979 of 0.86%.
[Graph]
However, after 1980, prescription drug spending rose rapidly
relative to wage income. The ratio of drug spending to wages
rose each year from 1980 to 2007. In 2007 wage growth finally
outpaced drug expenditures, with the ratio again increasing in
the Great Recession. By 2010, prescription drug spending had
climbed above four percent of wage income.
The three percent of annual wage income lost to higher
drug spending over the past 40 years makes a big difference to
working individuals and families. This increase in annual spending
averages out to roughly $2,400 per household. CMS projections,
combined with projections on wage income growth from the Congressional
Budget Office, suggest that spending on prescription drugs will
increase further through 2025. This ratio is expected to exceed
five percent by 2024.
While an aging population has been a factor increasing spending
on drugs, demographics alone cannot explain the sharp increase
in prescription drug spending. Inflation-adjusted prescription
drug spending per household has increased more than eightfold
since 1980, far outpacing any demographic trend surrounding age.
The share of people over age 65 in the population has increased
from 9.2% in 1960 to 14.8% in 2015. This can at most explain
a small part of the increase in spending on drugs over this period.
[Graph]
It is important to recognize that the high cost of drugs is
the result of a conscious policy decision to give drug companies
monopolies in the form of patents and other forms of exclusive
marketing rights. Without these protections drugs would almost
invariably be cheap, likely costing on average less than one
fifth as much as they do now. Even worse, the perverse incentives
resulting from patent monopolies distort the research process
and can lead drug companies to misrepresent evidence on the safety
and effectiveness of their drugs.
Democrats Help Corporate Donors Block California Health
Care Measure, And Progressives Lose Again
BY DAVID SIROTA ON 06/26/17 AT 4:06 PM
As Republican lawmakers grapple with their unpopular bill
to repeal Obamacare, Democrats have tried to present a united
front on health care. But for all their populist rhetoric
against insurance and drug companies, Democratic powerbrokers
and their allies remain deeply divided on the issue - to the
point where a political civil war has spilled into the open
in America's largest state.
In California last week, Democratic state Assembly Speaker
Anthony Rendon helped his and his party's corporate donors
block a Democrat-sponsored bill to create a universal health
care program in which the government would be the single
payer.
Rendon's decision shows how progressives' ideal of
universal health care remains elusive - even in a liberal
state where government already foots 70 percent of the total
health care bill.
Until Rendon's move, things seemed to be looking up for
Democratic single-payer proponents in deep blue California,
which has been hammered by insurance premium increases.
There, the Democratic Party - which originally created
Medicare - just added a legislative supermajority to a
Democratic-controlled state government that oversees the
world's sixth largest economy. That 2016 election victory
came as a poll showed nearly two-thirds of Californians
support the creation of a taxpayer-funded universal health
care system in a state whose population is roughly the size
of Canada - which already has such a system.
California's highest-profile federal Democratic lawmaker
recently endorsed state efforts to create single-payer
systems, and 25 members of its congressional delegation had
signed on to sponsor a federal single-payer bill.
Meanwhile, after Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger had
twice vetoed state single-payer legislation, California in
2010 elected a governor who had previously campaigned for
president on a pledge to support such a system. Other
statewide elected officials had also declared their support
for single-payer, including the current lieutenant governor,
who promised to enact a universal health care program if he
is wins the governorship in 2018.
None of that, though, made the difference: Late Friday,
Rendon announced that even though a single-payer bill had
passed the Democratic-controlled state senate, he would not
permit the bill to be voted on by the Assembly this year.
"As someone who has long been a supporter of single payer,
I am encouraged by the conversation begun by Senate Bill
562," Rendon said. But "senators who voted for SB 562 noted
there are potentially fatal flaws in the bill, including the
fact it does not address many serious issues, such as
financing, delivery of care, cost controls, or the realities
of needed action by the Trump Administration and voters to
make SB 562 a genuine piece of legislation."
Since 2012, Rendon has taken in more than $82,000 from
business groups and healthcare corporations that are listed
in state documents opposed the measure, according to an
International Business Times review of data amassed by the
National Institute on Money In State Politics. In all, he has
received more than $101,000 from pharmaceutical companies and
another $50,000 from major health insurers.
In the same time, the California Democratic Party has
received more than $1.2 million from the specific groups
opposing the bill, and more than $2.2 million from
pharmaceutical and health insurance industry donors. That
includes a $100,000 infusion of cash from Blue Shield of
California in the waning days of the 2016 election - just
before state records show the insurer began lobbying against
the single-payer bill.
While Rendon oversees a supermajority, it had never been
clear that Assembly Democrats would muster the two-thirds
vote needed under the state constitution to add the new taxes
needed to fund the single-payer system proposed by the
senate-passed bill. That is because the Democratic Assembly
caucus includes progressive legislators but also more
conservative members who are closer to business interests.
In addition to the money given to Rendon, the groups
opposing the single-payer measure have delivered more than
$1.5 million to Democratic assembly members since the 2012
election cycle. In all, the 55 Democratic members of the
80-seat Assembly have received more than $2.7 million from
donors in the pharmaceutical and health insurance industries
in just the last three election cycles.
Complicating matters for this year's single-payer bill was
the fact that the pharmaceutical industry had just spent more
than $100 million to defeat a 2016 ballot measure in
California aimed at lowering drug prices. That wave of money
was a powerful reminder that major industries opposed to
single-payer have virtually unlimited resources to spend
against California's Democratic incumbents in the next
election if those Democrats ultimately try to pass a bill.
"Subject To Enormous Uncertainty"
The episode in California was the latest defeat for
single-payer health care advocates, who have faced a string
of losses at the hands of Democrats whose party has continued
to attract significant cash from the health care industries
that benefit from the current system.
In the last decade, Barack Obama raised millions of
dollars from health care industry donors and then backed off
his previous support for single-payer. He and other
administration officials explicitly declared that the
Affordable Care Act would not become a Medicare-for-all
system. The Democratic-controlled U.S. Senate then failed to
pass a proposal to create a publicly run insurance option to
compete with private insurers.
More recently, Vermont's Democratic Gov. Peter Shumlin
abandoned his state's high-profile push for single-payer in
2014 - just as he was serving as chairman of the Democratic
Governors Association, a group whose top donors included
UnitedHealthcare, Blue Cross, AstraZeneca and the
pharmaceutical industry's trade association.
Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's
campaign was boosted by millions of dollars from health care
industry donors, and she derided Bernie Sanders for pushing
single payer, saying such an idea would "never, ever come to
pass." In the same 2106 election, prominent Democratic Party
consultants helped lead an insurer-funded campaign - backed
by prominent Democratic lawmakers - to kill a single-payer
ballot measure in Colorado.
And yet despite those defeats, single-payer advocates were
thinking big at the beginning of 2017. Heading into the new
legislative sessions, Democrats controlled both governorships
and legislatures in six states - and another
Democratic-leaning state with a Democratic governor, New
York, appeared to have legislative support for single-payer.
With its Democratic supermajority, California was the biggest
focus of attention among progressive healthcare advocates.
According to a June report by California senate analysts,
the single-payer legislation that was introduced in
Sacramento this year would have created a government agency
called Healthy California that would be "required to provide
comprehensive universal single-payer health care coverage
system for all California residents." The program would have
been prohibited from charging participants premiums and
co-pays and would have covered "all medical care determined
to be medically appropriate by the members' health care
provider," according to the Senate report.
While the report said fiscal estimates "are subject to
enormous uncertainty," it projected that $200 billion worth
of existing federal, state and local health care spending
would offset about half of the estimated $400 billion annual
cost. Shifting that money, though, could require California
to secure waivers from the federal government that would
allow it to redirect the federal money into the new program.
The original bill did not include a specific tax proposal
to raise the rest of the needed revenue. However, the report
estimated that the other $200 billion could be funded by
moving state payroll taxes up to 15 percent , a levy the
report said "would be offset to a large degree by reduced
spending on health care coverage by employers and employees."
"The Only Health Care System That Makes Any Sense"
At the start of California's legislative session, bill
proponents pitched the sweeping measure as a way to protect
the state from Trump administration health care policy. They
may have been banking on support from California's top
Democrat, Gov. Jerry Brown, who endorsed single payer during
his 1992 presidential campaign.
"I believe the only health care system that makes any
sense is a single-payer system," Brown said during a March
1992 Democratic presidential forum. "I don't see any way,
after having worked on this problem in the largest state in
the union, which, after all, has the highest medical costs,
to really contain costs without establishing a single payer
for all basic services."
But as the the California legislation began moving
forward, Brown cast doubts on it in comments to reporters in
March.
"Where do you get the extra money?...This is the whole
question. I don't even get ... how do you do that?" said
Brown, who has collected more than a quarter-million dollars
of campaign contributions from groups opposing the bill.
Supporters of the legislation tried to answer the
governor's question with a detailed economic analysis
asserting that the legislation could save the state money
through lower administrative costs and drug prices.
"Providing full universal coverage would increase overall
system costs by about 10 percent, but ... single payer system
could produce savings of about 18 percent," concluded a May
2017 study led by University of Massachusetts-Amherst
economist Robert Pollin. "The proposed single-payer system
could provide decent health care for all California residents
while still reducing net overall costs by about 8 percent
relative to the existing system."
That same month, U.S. House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi
- California's highest-ranking federal official -- seemed to
give the idea a boost. At a Capitol Hill press conference,
she said "the comfort level with a broader base of the
American people is not there yet" for a federal
Medicare-for-all bill, but she promoted state efforts.
"I say to people, if you want that, do it in your states.
States are laboratories. It can work out. It is the least
expensive, least administrative way to go about this," she
said. "States are a good place to start."
Economist Pollin echoed that argument, telling IBT that
the California situation is fundamentally different than
Vermont, which in 2014 abandoned its high-profile effort to
create the nation's first state-based single-payer system.
While single-payer could still be feasible in small states,
he said, the concept was particularly well suited to a very
large state like California.
"The issue of bargaining power is important relative to
pharmaceutical companies, and that's one big area of
savings," he told IBT. "If the pharmaceutical companies say
we're not interested in selling to Vermont, they can walk
away from Vermont. But they can't do the same thing with
California because it's too large a market. It's the same
thing with doctors - they are not going to run away from a
market of 33 million people just because their reimbursement
rates will be at Medicare levels. And the state of California
is already used to running big operations, so it has the
administrative power to do this kind of thing."
"Woefully Incomplete"
Despite Brown's lack of support, and opposition from
Republican lawmakers and health insurers, the California
senate passed the single-payer bill in June. Vermont Sen.
Bernie Sanders pressed the Democratic governor and California
lawmakers to enact the bill.
"As we sit here tonight, the California state senate has
passed single-payer," Sanders told a gathering of thousands
of activists in Chicago. "Now it's up to the California House
and the governor to do the right thing and help us transform
health care in this country by leading the way."
All of the pressure, however, was not enough to persuade
Rendon. Calling the legislation "woefully incomplete," he
announced that "SB 562 will remain in the Assembly Rules
Committee until further notice."
The move was instantly polarizing. Inside the labor
movement, the California branch of the Service Employees
International Union - which has long supported single-payer
health care - issued a statement supporting Rendon's
decision, saying the organization wants changes to the
legislation. SEIU's affiliates have previously negotiated a
collective bargaining agreement with insurer Kaiser
Permanente, which would be "dismantled" under the
single-payer bill, according to Kaiser's lobbyist.
By contrast, the California Nurses Association, which
represents 100,000 unionized nurses in the state, slammed
Rendon, asserting that he had acted "in secret in the
interests of the profiteering insurance companies" and that
he had "destroy[ed] the aspirations of millions of
Californians for guaranteed health care."
The internecine attacks were equally fierce within the
Democratic Party.
"Today's announcement that the Assembly will not be moving
forward on single-payer, Medicare-for-All healthcare for
California at this time is an unambiguous disappointment for
all of us who believe that healthcare is a right for every
Californian," said newly elected California Democratic Party
chairman Eric Bauman, who until the middle of June had worked
in the Assembly speaker's office under Rendon, and ran his
Southern California office. "We understand that SB 562 is a
work in progress, but we believe it should keep moving
forward, especially in light of the widespread suffering that
will occur if Trump and Congressional Republicans succeed in
passing their cold-blooded, morally bankrupt so-called
healthcare legislation."
Perhaps seeking to bridge the divide, Rendon left open the
possibility that the bill will come up next year.
"Because this is the first year of a two-year session,
this action does not mean SB 562 is dead," he said. "In fact,
it leaves open the exact deep discussion and debate the
senators who voted for SB 562 repeatedly said is needed. The
Senate can use that time to fill the holes in SB 562 and pass
and send to the Assembly workable legislation that addresses
financing, delivery of care, and cost control."
Rendon's focus on financing underscored the fact that
passing tax increases to generate hundreds of billions of
dollars of new revenue is generally no easy political task -
and such initiatives can be particularly tricky in
California. There, a 1988-passed measure called Proposition
98 typically requires that a significant amount of any new
tax revenue must go to education. Another 1979 measure known
as the Gann limit also aims to restrict spending increases.
Funding a single-payer system could require complex
legislation or even a separate ballot measure.
Bill proponents, though, say those potential roadblocks
are navigable within the scope of the bill they are pushing.
In an interview with IBT, Michael Lighty of the California
Nurses Association noted that the Senate version of the
legislation included language to make sure that the new
health care system would not launch unless state officials
certified that adequate funding was available.
"The speaker says the bill is 'woefully incomplete' but he
stopped the process that would have completed it," Lighty
said. "We have a failsafe mechanism in the legislation. In
the event anticipated monies are not available from whatever
source for whatever reason, we can address it before full
program operation. There are all sorts of options, but you
can't do any of it if the bill doesn't move forward."
Bauman told IBT that despite the opposition within his own
party, he expects progressive Democrats to continue pushing
for single payer.
"What Democratic activists need to be doing every day is
educating our elected officials and the public on just how
important the fight for health care is, and on why this is
the moral and ethical fight of the day," he said.
"Yes the California Senate pased(sic) a "single
payer" proposal but it is not moving in the House until
someone does the hard work of deciding: (a) what are the
details about what is being provided; and (b) how it will be
paid for."
"... The particular system of beliefs and practices defining the roles and powers of managers in our present context is what is referred to as managerialism. This is defined by two basic tenets: (i) that all social organisations must conform to a single structure; and (ii) that the sole regulatory principle is the market. Both ideas have far-reaching implications. The claim that every organisation - whether it is a mining company, a hospital, a school, a professional association or a charity - must be structured according to a single model, conforming to a single set of legislative requirements, not so long ago would have seemed bizarre, but is now largely taken for granted. The principle of the market has become the solitary, or dominant, criterion for decision making, and other criteria, such as loyalty, trust, care and a commitment to critical reflection, have become displaced and devalued. Indeed, the latter are viewed as quaint anachronisms with less importance and meaning than formal procedures or standards that can be readily linked to key performance indicators, budget end points, efficiency markers and externally imposed targets. ..."
"... Originally conceived as a strategy to manage large and increasingly complex organisations, in the contemporary world, no aspect of social life is now considered to be exempt from managerialist principles and practices. Policies and practices have become highly standardised, emphasising market-style incentives, devolved budgets and outsourcing, replacement of centralised budgeting with departmentalised user-pays systems, casualisation of labour, and an increasingly hierarchical approach to every aspect of institutional and social organisation. ..."
"... The managerial class is the universal class Hegel wrote about. It is the enemy of the productive classes, the agricultural and the industrial. Perhaps managers are like the eunuchs in former empires, grabbing power without production, always zealous that no idea will threaten their standing. ..."
"... Pick any empire on the verge of collapse in history and you'll find terrifying parallels to America today. I think all failing empires/societies must follow roughly similar trajectories on their way to oblivion. ..."
"... The creation of "professional managers" was not simply shaped by market fundamentalism but also by the progressive movement itself. Robert H. Wiebe's book "The Search for Order: 1877-1920, does a remarkable job of detailing this process. ..."
"... The trajectory runs from local autonomy once being the heart of American democracy, to the incremental erosion of the autonomy of community, to the supposedly necessary regulatory, managerial needs of urban-industrial life. and finally to the creation of flexible administrative devices that tended to encourage the creation of professional managers(in both the public and private sectors) and the increasing centralization of authority. ..."
Posted on
October 29, 2015 by
Lambert Strether
Lambert here: As we dig deeper into the health care system, concepts like those expressed in
this article will become increasingly useful. The patterns identified by Poses here remind me of
the university, which is also being eaten alive by a bloated and parasitical administrative layer.
By
Roy
Poses , MD, Clinical Associate Professor of Medicine at Brown University, and the President of
FIRM – the Foundation for Integrity and Responsibility in Medicine. Cross posted from the
Health Care Renewal website
I just found an important article that in the June, 2015 issue of the Medical Journal of Australia(1)
that sums up many of ways the leadership of medical (and most other organizations) have gone wrong.
It provides a clear, organized summary of "managerialism" in health care, which roughly rolls up
what we have called
generic management
, the
manager's
coup d'etat , and aspects of
mission-hostile management into a very troubling but coherent package. I will summarize the main
points, giving relevant quotes.
Recent Developments in Business Management Dogma Have Gravely Affected Health Care
Many health practitioners will consider the theory of business management to be of obscure
relevance to clinical practice. They might therefore be surprised to learn that the changes that
have occurred in this discipline over recent years have driven a fundamental revolution that has
already transformed their daily lives, arguably in perverse and harmful ways.
these changes have by and large been introduced insidiously, with little public debate, under
the guise of unquestioned 'best practice'.
See our previous discussions of the
anechoic effect
, how discussion of facts and ideas that threaten what we can now call the managerialist power
structure of health care are not considered appropriate for polite conversation, or public discussion.
Businesses are Now Run by Professional Managers, Not Owners
The traditional control by business owners in Europe and North America gave way during the
19th century to corporate control of companies. This led to the emergence of a new group of professionals
whose job it was to perform the administrative tasks of production. Consequently, management became
identified as both a skill and a profession in its own right, requiring specific training and
based on numerous emergent theories of practice.
Among these many vicissitudes, a decisive new departure occurred with the advent of what became
known as neoliberalism
in the 1980s (sometimes called Thatcherism because of its enthusiastic adoption by the Conservative
government of Margaret Thatcher in the United Kingdom). A reaction against Keynesian economic
policy and the welfare state, this harshly reinstated the regulatory role of the market in all
aspects of economic activity and led directly to the generalisation of the standards and practices
of management from the private to the public sectors. The radical cost cutting and privatisation
of social services that followed the adoption of neoliberal principles became a public policy
strategy rigorously embraced by governments around the world, including successive Liberal and
Labor governments in Australia.
Note that this is a global problem, at least of English speaking developed countries. The article
focuses on Australia, but we have certainly seen parallels in the US and the UK. Further, note that
we have discussed this concept, also termed market fundamentalism or economism.
Managerialism Provides a One-Size Fits All Approach to the Management of All Organizations,
in Which Money Becomes the Central Consideration
The particular system of beliefs and practices defining the roles and powers of managers in
our present context is what is referred to as managerialism. This is defined by two basic tenets:
(i) that all social organisations must conform to a single structure; and (ii) that the sole regulatory
principle is the market. Both ideas have far-reaching implications. The claim that every organisation
- whether it is a mining company, a hospital, a school, a professional association or a charity
- must be structured according to a single model, conforming to a single set of legislative requirements,
not so long ago would have seemed bizarre, but is now largely taken for granted. The principle
of the market has become the solitary, or dominant, criterion for decision making, and other criteria,
such as loyalty, trust, care and a commitment to critical reflection, have become displaced and
devalued. Indeed, the latter are viewed as quaint anachronisms with less importance and meaning
than formal procedures or standards that can be readily linked to key performance indicators,
budget end points, efficiency markers and externally imposed targets.
Originally conceived as a strategy to manage large and increasingly complex organisations,
in the contemporary world, no aspect of social life is now considered to be exempt from managerialist
principles and practices. Policies and practices have become highly standardised, emphasising
market-style incentives, devolved budgets and outsourcing, replacement of centralised budgeting
with departmentalised user-pays systems, casualisation of labour, and an increasingly hierarchical
approach to every aspect of institutional and social organisation.
We have frequently discussed how professional
generic managers
have taken over health care (sometimes referred to as the
manager's
coup d'etat .) We have noted that
generic managers
often seem ill-informed about if not overtly
hostile to the values of health care professionals and the missions of health care organizations.
Very Adverse Effects Result in Health Care and Academics
In the workplace, the authority of management is intensified, and behaviour that previously
might have been regarded as bullying becomes accepted good practice. The autonomous discretion
of the professional is undermined, and cuts in staff and increases in caseload occur without democratic
consultation of staff. Loyal long-term staff are dismissed and often humiliated, and rigorous
monitoring of the performance of the remaining employees focuses on narrowly defined criteria
relating to attainment of financial targets, efficiency and effectiveness.
The principles of managerialist theory have been applied equally to the public and the private
sectors. In the health sector, it has precipitated a shift in power from clinicians to managers
and a change in emphasis from a commitment to patient care to a primary concern with budgetary
efficiency. Increasingly, public hospital funding is tied to reductions in bed stays and other
formal criteria, and all decision making is subject to review relating to time and money. Older
and chronically ill people become seen not as subjects of compassion, care and respect but as
potential financial burdens. This does not mean that the system is not still staffed by skilled
clinicians committed to caring for the sick and needy; it is rather that it has become increasingly
harder for these professionals to do their jobs as they would like.
In the university sector, the story is much the same; all activities are assessed in relation
to the prosperity of the institution as a business enterprise rather than as a social one. Education
is seen as a commodity like any other, with priority given to vocational skills rather than intellectual
values. Teaching and research become subordinated to administration, top-down management and obsessively
applied management procedures. Researchers are required to generate external funding to support
their salaries, to focus on short-term problems, with the principal purpose being to enhance the
university's research ranking. The focus shifts from knowledge to grant income, from ideas to
publications, from speculation to conformity, from collegiality to property, and from academic
freedom to control. Rigid hierarchies are created from heads of school to deans of faculties and
so on. Academic staff - once encouraged to engage in public life - are forbidden to speak publicly
without permission from their managers.
The article provided a case study of the apparent demise of the Royal Australasian College of
Physicians as a physician led organization, leading to alleged emphasis on "extreme secrecy and 'commercial
in confidence," growth of conflicts of interest, risk aversion on controversial issues. When members
of the organization called for a vote to increase transparency and accountability, the hired management
apparently sued their own members.
Authors' Summary
Whether the damage done to the larger institutions - the public hospitals and the universities
- can be reversed, or even stemmed, is a bigger question still. The most that can be said is that
even if the present, damaging phase of managerial theory and practice eventually passes, its destructive
effects will linger on for many years to come.
My Summary
I now believe that the most important cause of US health care dysfunction, and likely of global
health care dysfunction, are the problems in leadership and governance we have often summarized (leadership
that is ill-informed, ignorant or
hostile to the health care mission and professional values, incompetent, self-interested, conflicted
or outright criminal
or
corrupt
, and governance that lacks accountability, transparency, honesty, and ethics.) In turn, it appears
that these problems have been generated by the twin plagues of managerialism (
generic management
, the
manager's
coup d'etat ) and
neoliberalism
(market fundamentalism, economism) as applied to health care. It may be the many of the larger
problems in US and global society also can be traced back to these sources.
We now see our problems in health care as part of a much larger whole, which partly explains why
efforts to address specific health care problems country by country have been near futile. We are
up against something much larger than what we thought when we started
Health Care Renewal in 2005. But at
least we should now be able join our efforts to those in other countries and in other sectors.
Reference
1. Komesaroff PA, Kerridge IH, Isaacs D, Brooks PM. The scourge of managerialism and the Royal
Australasian College of Physicians. Med J Aust 2015; 202: 519- 521. Link
here .
We have to leaven this dismal post with the 1980 live version of "Down Under" by Men at Work
The managerial class is the universal class Hegel wrote about. It is the enemy of the productive
classes, the agricultural and the industrial.
Perhaps managers are like the eunuchs in former empires, grabbing power without production, always
zealous that no idea will threaten their standing.
It is unfair to eunuchs to compare them to managers. The man who led the great Ming dynasty
naval journeys to SE Asia and Africa was a eunuch. The man credited with the invention of paper
was a eunuch attached to the Han Dynasty court.
Narses, one of the emperor Justinian's great generals,
was a eunuch.
He began his military career at the age of sixty and continued until he was murdered
by the then-emperor at the age of ninety-five.
(This post is the result of very quick checking
and memories of Robert Graves' wonderful book Count Belisarius. But I am mostly right.)
This comment completely misses the point of JLGC's excellent comment, and I refer you to the
opening chapters of the Romance of the Three Kingdoms for remedial reading. Its become striking,
at least to me, how much the developed western world is imitating the declines of the Chinese
dynasties.
Pick any empire on the verge of collapse in history and you'll find terrifying parallels to
America today. I think all failing empires/societies must follow roughly similar trajectories
on their way to oblivion.
Back in 1975 at my local technical college, I was fortunate enough to snag a part-time COBOL
programming job at the school. My colleagues and I noticed that several managers above the department
level had little to do but sit around in their offices. Periodically they would emerge to engage
some unlucky soul in dumb conversation. One of my co-workers summed it up admirably: "The more
they make, the less they do."
A couple years later while reading the Sunday paper job ads, I ran across this job title: Manager
of Management Development. A sign of very bad things to come.
I have to wonder if it's a coincidence that both healthcare and education are given as especially
notable victims of inappropriate/ineffective management
Because both healthcare and education are things that can best and primarily be done by and
for oneself. And there is overlap here: organic chemistry is a special case of molecular physics.
Regardless of how well instructors present it, there is a wealth of well understood information
on molecular physics (with a lot of special examination of organic chemistry), and so far the
bulk of that information remains easily available (although it's starting to disappear at an increasing
and alarming rate). I know that many will say, "there's a lot more to it than that!", but this
only indicates that they themselves have made no sustained effort to understand these matters.
It's not rocket science (which is, indeed, quite demanding).
I think the authors may somewhat overlook collateral (and undoubtedly mutually synergistic
with managerial phenomena) issues in the quality of teachers and doctors, which has also degraded
in a similar way, possibly for similar reasons. Rote learning increasingly replaces comprehension
in both fields. Inundated with unproven, and often unsound, commercial and theoretical dogma,
rudimentary performance is still possible, but results are mediocre. Excellence in these fields
requires patience, precision and and familiarity with underlying principles; "caring", bonhomie
and rote knowledge are admirable, but not viable substitutes.
Does it even make sense to pay to undertake courses in order to get a certificate of achievement?
From a commercial career perspective, certainly. But such a certificate is no sure guarantee of
skill. "Qualified" personnel are not necessarily capable. In a time of ever increasingly complex
systems and disciplines, capability is more needed than ever. The management sector is not the
only area where performance, and fulfillment of actual (in contrast to nominal) responsibility,
degrades.
For that matter, does it even make sense to have somebody undertake to diagnose your own health,
without detailed information about your diet, your regular environment, your physical history,
and any exceptions to these; information for which you yourself should be the best source? The
consulting physician enters at an immediate disadvantage, facing a significant information deficit;
it behooves individuals to become more proactive, especially when rudimentary diagnostic equipment
(sphygmomanometers, simple blood test kits, etc) and reference information (anatomical references,
drug chemistries and interactions, etc) are readily available. True, there are some thing's you
can't do yourself, surgery is surely a valuable skill and worthy of respect, but it has significant
limits as well (replacing a bad heart in an unhealthy body won't cure the body, etc).
Managerialism is a scourge, a calamity, a great threat; no argument from me. But it's not the
only problem we face, as a culture, and as an economy, of human beings, in these fields and others.
And the authors acknowledge this tangentially, but perhaps somewhat over-emphasize the impact
if managerialism on the ongoing degradation of these and other fields, at least by omission of
other evident and significant factors.
'Does it even make sense to pay to undertake courses in order to get a certificate of achievement?
From a commercial career perspective, certainly. But such a certificate is no sure guarantee of
skill. "Qualified" personnel are not necessarily capable'
I think in time there will be a move away from official credentialing toward companies and
organisations testing candidates – 'qualified' or not – themselves, with a professional or a dept
(depending on the size of the concern) whose job it is to sort the wheat from the chaff. They
would be in constant liaison with the various sections (and not just the heads) to keep abreast
of what skills and knowledge are required in appointees, and test candidates accordingly. The
net enables enterprising people too poor to afford expensive laurels to become as skilled and
knowledgeable and probably more flexible than those born with 'advantages'. The twin drivers of
this change will be, for the employers, the degradation of quality in 'qualified' applicants that
you refer to, and, for the employees, the debt peonage involved in becoming 'qualified'
'For that matter, does it even make sense to have somebody undertake to diagnose your own health,
without detailed information about your diet, your regular environment, your physical history,
and any exceptions to these; information for which you yourself should be the best source?'
Not to mention your genetic heritage yes, human variation is the big blind spot not just in
medicine but health generally. Almost nothing can be generalised, yet whole industries in health
and wellbeing rely on generalisation.
'The claim that every organisation - whether it is a mining company, a hospital, a school,
a professional association or a charity - must be structured according to a single model, conforming
to a single set of legislative requirements, not so long ago would have seemed bizarre, but is
now largely taken for granted. The principle of the market has become the solitary, or dominant,
criterion for decision making, and other criteria, such as loyalty, trust, care and a commitment
to critical reflection, have become displaced and devalued'
'And, so, finally the floodgates were open. Nowadays, every expected income stream is a fair
candidate for capitalization. And since income streams are generated by social entities, processes,
organizations and institutions, we end up with the 'capitalization of every thing'. Capitalists
routinely discount human life, including its genetic code and social habits; they discount organized
institutions from education and entertainment to religion and the law; they discount voluntary
social networks; they discount urban violence, civil war and international conflict; they even
discount the environmental future of humanity. Nothing seems to escape the piercing eye of capitalization:
if it generates earning expectations it must have a price, and the algorithm that gives future
earnings a price is capitalization'
Does anybody have an idea of what changed in 1990 to lead to such a sudden jump in the management
overhead of health organizations? It must have been something crucial in the legal or economic
environment of the sector.
Start here:
https://kenhoma.wordpress.com/2014/04/30/how-many-mba-degrees-are-awarded-each-year/
It takes time to achieve a critical mass of MBA-wielding managers in order for group-think to
establish itself.
I'm not going to exhaust myself fact-checking this data, so if anyone finds better please correct
me and post it. Based on my own experience in a STEM field, this looks about right.
Sadistic Managerial 'teams' have existed too long in too many areas. my mother recently received
a notice on the door of her apartment, she's occupied for 5yrs. this letter was short and to the
point 'if you do not pay .23 (cents) before the end of the business day, you will vacate your
apartment'. mom, 81yro, called me in hysterics. i got to her apt. and immediately had to attend
to her racing heart and hyperventilating. i read the letter slowly and see where mom missed the
"you will voluntarily vacate your apartment".
after a few deep breaths, i hiked down to the den of smiling sadist offering coffee and cake.
they introduced themselves as the 'new management', when i asked how many of the group of 5 it
took to pull the 3yro .23 Cent delinquency i was assured by the head honcho, she was involved
with the entire process. i explained my CPA sister and myself, Corporate Analyst (stretch), were
off a few zero's and hadn't even bothered to account for the home office reconciliations.
back to 'healthcare/hospitals': "-owned hospitals. How many are there? Two hundred and thirty-eight
of them in the whole country (out of more than five thousand)–somewhere between four and five
percent of the total in the U.S. (numbers courtesy TA Henry from this excellent piece).
What are the issues?
Obamacare effectively bans doctors from owning hospitals in the U.S.
Those already in existence are grandfathered in under the law.
We know that doctor-owned hospitals have higher average costs–hence the rationale for banning
them under a law with the intent of "bending the cost curve."
In the most recent Medicare data (December 2012 report on "value-based purchasing"), doctor-owned
hospitals did well in terms of achieving quality milestones.
How well?
Really well. Physician-owned hospitals took nine out of the top ten spots in the country. And
in spite of their low relative number, forty-eight out of the top one hundred.
What's the secret sauce? Here's a little tidbit on the #1 ranked hospital from another excellent
piece on this issue:
The top one is Treasure Valley Hospital in Boise, Idaho, a 10-bed hospital that boasts a low
patient-to-nurse ratio and extra attention, right down to thank-you notes sent to each discharged
patient.
A 10-bed hospital? Thank you notes for each discharged patient? Sign me up to go there next
time I need hospital services.
Who cares? Well, we all should. Why?
It boils down to incentives.
When doctors own the hospitals, they stand to directly share in profits. If you're a doctor-owner,
and the hospital you both run and own is functioning at a high level, you think, "This is what
America is all about. Free enterprise. Why shouldn't I make more money if my hospital runs well?"
As a taxpayer, do I want government incentives going to hospitals that are privately owned
and known for cherry-picking insured patients?
Moreover, what does it say about public hospitals, or academic centers, that often see the
sickest, poorest, most vulnerable patients? Yes, their quality is measurably lower, according
to this data. But now, in spite of staying true to their core missions (serving the public) they're
being further penalized.
Is this just another case of the rich simply getting richer?
Maybe Obamacare's got it wrong. Maybe we should build upon the model of doctor-ownership and
turn over public hospitals to their workers. All of them. Let the nurses buy in. And the food
handlers. And the "environmental services" folks (i.e. custodial crews). Let's really let the
workers own the means of production. Then we can see where incentives get us."
http://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2013/05/doctor-owned-hospitals-rich-richer.html
Sister Act: Gov. Perry's Little-Known Sister is a Lobbyist for Lucrative Doctor-Owned Hospitals;
Milla Perry Jones is vice president of government relations at United Surgical Partners International,
an Addison, Texas company that runs hospitals and surgery centers co-owned by doctors. Sister
Jones works with trade groups to rebut claims that doctor-owned medical facilities inflate American
medical bills. Both Governor Perry and his sister have championed doctor-owned facilities in Texas
and Washington.
2006 federal report found that Medicare costs are 20 percent higher at doctor-owned orthopedic
surgical hospitals than at competing community hospitals. These studies typically do not determine
if the extra procedures are beneficial. The doctor-owned industry says it delivers superior care
and points to contradictory research that does not associate doctor ownership with higher costs.
doctor-owned facilities are money machines. A 2009 study found that Texas' doctor-owned hospitals
pumped $2.3 billion into the economy each year. The industry has had to use some of this money
to fend off political meddling. Heavily favoring Republicans, Perry Jones' United Surgical PAC
spent almost $250,000 on federal politicians from 2005 to 2010, according to the Center for Responsive
Politics. The New York Times reported that Doctors Hospital at Renaissance donors gave congressional
Democrats $1.3 million in that period, with then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visiting that hospital
in 2007. Surpassing the powerful Texas Medical Association, the Doctors Hospital's Border Health
PAC spent close to $4 million on Texas state elections from 2005 through 2010, becoming Texas'
13th largest PAC. Houston's doctor-owned North Cypress Medical Center pumped another $500,000
into Texas state races, ranking as Governor Perry's No. 5 donor in 2010.
In one of his last presidential ads, Rick Perry skewered Washington as a twisted place where,
"You can't say that Congressmen becoming lobbyists is a form of political corruption." United
Surgical, North Cypress and Doctors Hospital at Renaissance have paid federal lobbyists-including
ex-Congressman Tom Loeffler-almost $3 million since 2005. Joined by two Perry Jones-affiliated
trade groups, these same doctor-owned interests paid 24 Texas lobbyists-including U.S. Senator
John Cornyn's daughter-up to $3.4 million in that period. These lobbyists do not include Milla
Perry Jones, whose advocacy activities may not trigger Texas' registration requirements. (A Texas
lobbyist generally must register if she receives more than $1,000 a quarter for direct communications
with public officials).
http://www.texasobserver.org/obamacare-jags-rick-perrys-lobbyist-sister/
can you imagine the independent sadist managing these hospitals?
It's about confiscating public budgets – and, as such, it fits into the broader pattern of
privatized jail and war. When you have for-profit war, you never get any peace; there's no money
in it. For profit medicine is about sickcare and not healthcare. There's no profit in cure or
prevention, only treatment.
Sickness creates natural captive markets for rent-seeking monopolies and cartels to exploit.
Once you've got a disease there are only so many chemical options to treat it. Corporate America
is often actively blocking cheap treatments to steer patients toward patented medicine. See my
earlier comment about Pharmacy Benefit Managers. The recent epidemics of drug shortages aren't
a coincidence; they are engineered. It's only happening with cheap, effective, often public domain
chemicals (e.g., methotrexate, 2ml vials of MgSO4). This is by design. Rent-seekers confiscate
public goods like public domain chemicals and provide inferior, expensive, patented substitutes.
Some of these are baffling if you don't understand the recent breakthroughs in biochemistry.
When you take gel helminths (worms like whipworms) out of the body you get autoimmune diseases
like m.s. and crohn's. This has been clear for about ten years but have you heard about that research
from drug company-funded "patient" groups? When you feed people antibiotics that kill their gut
flora and sell people food stripped of necessary fiber to nourish said bacteria, you get inflammation
and insulin resistance – contributing to, sometimes outright causing, Alzheimer's, diabetes, autism,
atherosclerosis, cancer and polycystic ovaries, among many diseases. What news company wants to
tell the public the food companies in creating an addictive sugar-laden product by removing fiber
is also creating disease? Big Tobacco wasn't an anomaly. It's a pattern of regular conduct across
industries.
Patients are being tortured to death in this system.
Love the read. The quaint notion that the top employees in healthcare aren't in it for the
money still lingers in some corners of our society.
One quibble with using this quote
A reaction against Keynesian economic policy and the welfare state, this harshly reinstated
the regulatory role of the market in all aspects of economic activity and led directly to the
generalisation of the standards and practices of management from the private to the public
sectors.
It does not apply very well to the American context. Healthcare in the US context is all about
the welfare state. US taxpayers give more money to both medical and non-medical managers/administrators/specialists/etc.
than any other taxpayers in any other country on the planet. Markets play no role in the monstrosities
that have become our hospital franchises, drug dealers, and equipment peddlers. These corporations
(many of them 'nonprofit') are the anti-thesis of price takers in a competitive marketplace.
Health care in the US is a mess in more than one dimension. Many aspects of managerialism are
certainly a major problem contributing to increased costs and reduced quality. But there is an
aspect of "overconsumption" of health services as well. I put it in quotes because the framing
of "overconsumption" puts the blame on patients (as if they are "consumers"), rather than where
I think the blame truly belongs - health care providers and management.
The existing system is largely setup to pay by the number of procedures (easy to measure with
electronic health records) rather than the actual quality of care (not as easy to measure). Specialized
doctors and managers have an incentive to push for unnecessary procedures and clinical visits,
because it means they get paid more.
Perhaps the strongest evidence for doctors responding to these perverse incentives is the specializations
that doctors choose. Primary care specializations like family medicine, general practice, and
pediatrics are being decimated because these specializations are largely focused with preventative
or long-term care. As a result, the pay is substantially lower than other specializations that
perform many procedures. The evidence is that there is a critical shortage of doctors in these
primary care fields, especially in rural areas of the country. Doctors flock to specializations
that offer many procedures and consequently higher pay.
Smaal example of "wallet biopsy" structuring of "health care:" You have a lab test or MRI or
tissue biopsy done, under the "provider's" order. To be "given the results," even if normal or
benign, you have to " be seen in clinic." A nurse or paraprofessional may actually "give you your
results," but that will be billed as an office visit with the doctor. Don't want to pay f9r the
wallet biopsy? Fine, the doc doesn't "give you yor results." And if you find a more compassionate,
maybe even more skilled, provider? If there's a balance due on your account with the first, S/he
effectively has a "chart lien," like a lawyer's "file lien," on your very own personal medical
records.
And maybe that's "against the law," some places, but as always, where there's ño effective
remedy (sue the doctor or the corporation? No effective remedy), there's no right
My wife went through this with a "Chr8stoan" DO primary-care dude who discovered Mammon was
a more compelling god than YHWH, corporations and privatized his practice and got into peddling
"procedures" like in-office ablation of throat tissue to "cure apnea and snoring," and Trusting
Patient enrollment in drug trials for Bad Meds
Anyone who thinks clinicianscare all Albert Schweitzers needs to read "The House if God," learn
the real rules of practice, understand what a "GOMER" is, and hope you won't get the "buff and
turf" treatment. It's a hilarious book, but a check on the irrational exuberance that endows practitioners
of the calling art business of medicine with universal expectations of virtue
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_House_of_God
And Lambert, don't credit me with invention of that "wallet biopßy" phrase– it's a commonplace
in the business of medicine.
Why the vast majority of us humans will" never have nice things," like comity and empathy and
simple decency, 'cuz more than enough of us are "all too human."
Good read. Self-sustainability in all aspects of our lives is being usurped by un-free markets
created by rent seekers or their lackeys. There is no longer a desire for America to be the best
nation in the world because that would mean it's self-sustaining. And I'm not talking budgets.
I'm talking people running things instead of corporations. No longer does Buy American mean anything
– actually, it's been outlawed by our trade agreements. There is no drive among our leaders anymore
for America to be self-sustaining, which includes taking care of the least of us because we're
all in this together. Capitalism as practiced by corporations is dead, it just refuses to be buried.
Supported by the Fed handouts it's busy handing out crutches for the entities it's crippled –
which it then intends to kick the crutches out from under. Hilarious ehh? Universities, hospitals,
pharma, the post office you name it used to all be self-sustaining entities that people could
afford or that provided needed services at low prices and actually cared about people. Self-sustaining
to me means America having the best food, the best health care, the best education, the happiest
people and on and on – the shining city on the hill so to speak. Instead we get crapification
of everything we need and it's all for sale to the highest bidder who then crapifies everything
even more. It's a race to the bottom and the ultimate goal is a floor full of crutches and no
one left standing.
The medical association I use actually has a C-level job called "Chief Efficiency Officer".
Her latest was raising the bar for hospital referrals thus reducing insurance company costs and
increasing consumer (I have stopped saying patient) risk. The incentive is the insurance companies
are kicking back part of the extra profit. Another case of privatize profit – socialize cost since
the added cost to consumers is impossible to measure. If I can find the letter from the association
announcing (and attempting to rationalize) the change, I will email a copy to Lambert.
Worth a look: Matthew Stewart's The Management Myth . It discloses that the very foundations
of "scientific management" originating with Frederick Winslow Taylor were flawed. Taylor cooked
the results of his "scientific" experiments in getting more productivity from the workforce to
fit his theories. The first MBA - Penn's Wharton School - was founded on this con. Similar cons
were at the inception of the Harvard MBA.
The "MBA Mentality" - embodied by W, among others - says everything can be measured, and measurement
is what makes it real. Hence testing our students until their eyeballs bleed is now an endorsed
strategy to improve educational outcomes. No actual science supports this conclusion, but that
hasn't stopped the people who want to leave No Child Behind(tm).
Turns out, management is a liberal art! Who knew?!
"The particular system of beliefs and practices defining the roles and powers of managers in
our present context is what is referred to as managerialism. This is defined by two basic tenets:
(i) that all social organisations must conform to a single structure; and (ii) that the sole regulatory
principle is the market. Both ideas have far-reaching implications. The claim that every organisation
- whether it is a mining company, a hospital, a school, a professional association or a charity
- must be structured according to a single model, conforming to a single set of legislative requirements, Originally
conceived as a strategy to manage large and increasingly complex organisations, in the contemporary
world, no aspect of social life is now considered to be exempt from managerialist principles and
practices."
This is an apt description of MARKET TOTALITARIANISM.
MBAs and project managers armed with their metric-driven spreadsheets in pursuit of "best practice"
– market lebensraum – speak the same language and spearhead this offensive against the welfare
state. A managerial elite devoted to the belief that the the market will set you free functions
much like the Waffen SS did in another regime with explicit totalitarian aspirations. The need
for concentration camps is not needed in this version of totalitarianism because "no aspect of
social life is exempt from managerialist principles and practices." The institutions of civil
society have been captured by this "weltanshuung/zeitgeist" and dissent is lost in the "nacht
und nebel" of the eternal present.
Herbert Marcuse [One Dimensional Man], Eric Fromm, [Escape From Freedom] and the Frankfurt
School broached the idea of what has evolved into "market totalitarianism" shortly after the Second
World War. Dismissed largely as a Marxist rant it did not garner much traction inside or outside
of academia, especially in this country. I suspect many of you are too young to be familiar with
this body of work – no fault of yours. Nevertheless, LIBERALISM 2.0 [aka neoliberalism] did not
capture the hearts and minds of the political classes until the 1970s signified by Ronald Reagan's
election in 1980. From then on it gathered steam and by the 1990s it was apparent that "market
totalitarianism" was on the rise, if not yet ascendant.
Orwellian concepts like "doublethink/doublespeak" resonated as the language employed in political
discourse became little more than smoke and mirrors. "Reform" signified a revamping of welfare
and criminal justice. It also has come to mean little more than slash-and-burn CUTS to programs
associated with the welfare state or their outright privatization under the rubric of "choice"
. Natural gas and electric rate "choice" programs exemplify this approach. Indeed, the two biggest
prizes – Social Security and Medicare – are subject to calls for "entitlement reform" by Republicans
and Democrats alike. That both programs have been internalized in the minds of many as "entitlements"
destined for "reform" testifies to this. The federal deficit matters now and the hysteria surrounding
it will likely be a primary talking point in the 2016 elections. The question of how will we pay
for the expansion of any program barring tax increases will become the retort by those opposed
to both, MMT notwithstanding.
The Great Recession has been portrayed as an anomaly or as a normal part of the business cycle
and precipitated some rethinking. But make no mistake about it, the market totalitarian impetus
in this country continues unabated. If anything, the monotheism of the market has accelerated
in some respects as "businesspersons" – Donald Trump and Carly Fiorina – from the private sector
now vie for the presidential nomination of the Republican Party. The very idea that business acumen/experience
is now of paramount importance in running this country – as a business – testifies to the pervasiveness
of market totalitarianism. It is now deep rooted in civil society.
Even here in Akron, there are plans to rename the University of Akron: the Ohio Polytechnic
University! Fans of Firesign Theater back in the day will recall the rivalry between "more science
high" and "commie-martyrs' high school! It would be funny in most circumstances. but who's laughing
now? Many a former rubber rat plan to vote for Trump!
I have come to the conclusion that "market totalitarianism" now has to run its course in this
country. The Achilles' heel of market totalitarianism may be how and where it stifles/smothers
innovation, subjugating research and development to market criteria in which the short term trumps
the long term. To the extent that dissent/conflict is fundamental to innovation and cannot be
confined to the laboratory, then resistance is NOT futile. It remains to be seen whether that
dissent can be co-opted or reappropriated indefinitely by market totalitarianism in this country
or not, yet alone outside of its borders.
Ban collective bargaining and the collective will suffer. If a government was allowed to negotiate
for the collective against the suppliers then maybe the outcome would be different. But as we
all know, letting the government co-ordinate and negotiate for the collective will make it worse
for some individuals so ..
The needs of the many do not(?) outweigh the needs of the few. Be it for healthcare, education
or?
"The Scourge of Managerialism" raised some profoundly important issues.
But its fundamental assumption " the traditional control by business owners in Europe and North
American gave way during the 19th century to corporate control of companies. This lead to the
emergence of a new group of professional whose job it was to perform the administrative tasks
of production"–is only half correct.
The creation of "professional managers" was not simply shaped by market fundamentalism but
also by the progressive movement itself. Robert H. Wiebe's book "The Search for Order: 1877-1920,
does a remarkable job of detailing this process.
The trajectory runs from local autonomy once being the heart of American democracy, to the
incremental erosion of the autonomy of community, to the supposedly necessary regulatory, managerial
needs of urban-industrial life. and finally to the creation of flexible administrative devices
that tended to encourage the creation of professional managers(in both the public and private
sectors) and the increasing centralization of authority.
Can any renewal of democracy begin without a dismantling of professional managerial authority
in both the market and the state?
Is a breakdown of centralized bureaucratic power (both public and private) a precondition for
democratic renewal?
"... We don't see this sort of bidding war for workers taking place in any major sector of the economy. While there may be a few occupations in a few areas where employers really are bidding up wages rapidly, this is not happening in most sectors of the labor market. ..."
"... The other reason we know the skills shortage story does not fit is that there is no noticeable increase in the length of the average workweek for any major group of workers. The story we would expect to see if companies could not hire more workers is that they would instead work their existing workforce more hours, paying them overtime if necessary. We don't see this happening on any large scale either. The length of the average workweek is actually slightly shorter now than it was two years ago. Here also, there is no major area of the economy in which are seeing lengthening workweeks in a manner that would be consistent with the skills shortage story.... ..."
The Skills Gap: Blaming Workers Rather than Policy
By Dean Baker
Last week Donald Trump visited a technical college in Wisconsin. He was accompanied by Wisconsin
Governor Scott Walker, several members of Congress, and top officials in his administration. The
theme was promoting apprenticeship programs that give workers job specific skills. Trump, along
with the rest of his contingent, bemoaned the fact that employers cannot find workers with the
skills they need. This theme was picked up by many in the media, including many who are not Republicans,
who argued that workers in the U.S. are not getting ahead because they lack the necessary skills.
The striking feature about this argument is how widely it gets repeated, even when the evidence
continually shows that it is not true. Just to be clear, it is good that U.S. workers get better
training. Other countries, most notably Germany and the Nordic countries, do a much better job
of training workers who do not get college degrees than the United States.
It is also true that any individual worker will almost certainly be better off in the labor
market if they could acquire more skills. Certainly the best advice to a young person completing
high school would be to try to go to college or alternatively to get the training needed to be
a physical therapist, dental hygienist, or some other moderately well-paying professional. Insofar
as the government can facilitate this education and training it will be good for both the workers
and the economy as a whole.
But that is very different from claiming that the main reason that millions of workers are
unemployed or out of the labor force is that they don't have the right skills. This claim is endlessly
put forward, in both the United States and elsewhere, even in contexts where it is obviously not
true.
The unemployment rate in the United States fell to 4.3 percent in May, so the claim that companies
may be having trouble finding qualified workers is more plausible now than earlier in the recovery.
But even now that the labor market is hugely stronger than at its low points in the Great Recession
there is still reason to question the skills shortage view.
First and foremost we are not seeing the sort of rapid wage growth that would be expected if
there were widespread skills shortage. This is a story where companies would like to expand their
business but are prevented from doing so because they can't find any workers with the skills they
need.
However there are always some workers somewhere who have the needed skills. Companies could
offer higher wages to lure workers away from competitors. Or, they can make a point of recruiting
in more distant areas and offering to pay travel and location expenses for workers.
We don't see this sort of bidding war for workers taking place in any major sector of the
economy. While there may be a few occupations in a few areas where employers really are bidding
up wages rapidly, this is not happening in most sectors of the labor market.
The other reason we know the skills shortage story does not fit is that there is no noticeable
increase in the length of the average workweek for any major group of workers. The story we would
expect to see if companies could not hire more workers is that they would instead work their existing
workforce more hours, paying them overtime if necessary. We don't see this happening on any large
scale either. The length of the average workweek is actually slightly shorter now than it was
two years ago. Here also, there is no major area of the economy in which are seeing lengthening
workweeks in a manner that would be consistent with the skills shortage story....
"... Russia and Putin weren't effective issues for Hillary, and they're not effective issues now, yet the Democratic leadership insists on flogging them. The corrupt, sclerotic, and incompetent Democratic leadership is aloof and out of touch...and needs to go. ..."
Earth to the Democratic leadership: Stop talking so much
about Russia.
"Frustrated Democrats hoping to elevate their
election fortunes have a resounding message for party
leaders: Stop talking so much about Russia.
Democratic leaders have been beating the drum this year
over the ongoing probes into the Trump administration's
potential ties to Moscow, taking every opportunity to
highlight the saga and forcing floor votes designed to
uncover any business dealings the president might have with
Russian figures.
But rank-and-file Democrats say the Russia-Trump narrative
is simply a non-issue with district voters, who are much more
worried about bread-and-butter economic concerns like jobs,
wages and the cost of education and healthcare.
In the wake of a string of special-election defeats, an
increasing number of Democrats are calling for an adjustment
in party messaging, one that swings the focus from Russia to
the economy. The outcome of the 2018 elections, they say,
hinges on how well the Democrats manage that shift.
"We can't just talk about Russia because people back in Ohio
aren't really talking that much about Russia, about Putin,
about Michael Flynn," Rep. Tim Ryan (D-Ohio) told
MSNBC Thursday. "They're trying to figure out how they're
going to make the mortgage payment, how they're going to pay
for their kids to go to college, what their energy bill looks
like.
"And if we don't talk more about their interest than we do
about how we're so angry with Donald Trump and everything
that's going on," he added, "then we're never going to be
able to win elections."
Russia and Putin weren't effective issues for Hillary,
and they're not effective issues now, yet the Democratic
leadership insists on flogging them. The corrupt, sclerotic,
and incompetent Democratic leadership is aloof and out of
touch...and needs to go.
"... It implies that it is money supply that contributes to inflation. However it is not money supply that contributes to inflation it is income. That is money times the velocity of money ..."
Now I just read an article by some guy with the typical quantitative easing is bad because it
just dilutes everyones wealth , debases the currency value and and all that
This is nonsense
It implies that it is money supply that contributes to inflation. However it is not money
supply that contributes to inflation it is income. That is money times the velocity of money
and in fact it is not income that contributes to inflation it is income times the propensity
to consume of that income
money in bonds is not really actively involved in income except for the interest it's earning
so when the central bank "prints money" and then uses that money to buy bonds all the central
bank is doing is exchanging one form of inactive wealth with another form of inactive wealth
that is neither the value of the bond nor the value of the money that the fed printed by the
bond were actively involved in income anyway, except for the interest earned
therefore they do not affect inflation
in fact the value that bond at this point wasn't about to be used for consumption anyway, it
was just being held
after the fed purchases the bond, that the former bondholder now has cash that is no longer
getting a return, (as now the fed is getting the return)
which will prompt the former bondholder to look for a place to put that money
the idea is that the former bondholder will invest the money, that that money will find its
way into funding ventures that cause increased employment, income and production
and it is that investment that will stimulate the economy
like maybe buy other bonds and the issuer of the bond gets that money and can invest in their
business, creating jobs and income and production for their employees.
Which then will have the usual multiplier effect if we are at less than full employment
and at any point the fed can sell back the bond reducing the money supply
in the meantime we might have been able to keep the economy functioning at a high level, keep
more people from being excluded from the benefits, and not lose all that production that is so
essential to increasing our quality of life
The time for rhetorical reservations is over. Things have to be called by their name to make it
possible for a co-ordinated democratic reaction to be initiated, above all in the public services.
Liberalism was a doctrine derived from the philosophy of Enlightenment, at once political and
economic, which aimed at imposing on the state the necessary distance for ensuring respect for liberties
and the coming of democratic emancipation. It was the motor for the arrival, and the continuing progress,
of Western democracies.
Neoliberalism is a form of economism in our day that strikes at every moment at every sector of
our community. It is a form of extremism.
Fascism may be defined as the subordination of every part of the State to a totalitarian and nihilistic
ideology.
I argue that neoliberalism is a species of fascism because the economy has brought under subjection
not only the government of democratic countries but also every aspect of our thought.
The state is now at the disposal of the economy and of finance, which treat it as a subordinate
and lord over it to an extent that puts the common good in jeopardy.
The austerity that is demanded by the financial milieu has become a supreme value, replacing politics.
Saving money precludes pursuing any other public objective. It is reaching the point where claims
are being made that the principle of budgetary orthodoxy should be included in state constitutions.
A mockery is being made of the notion of public service.
The nihilism that results from this makes possible the dismissal of universalism and the most
evident humanistic values: solidarity, fraternity, integration and respect for all and for differences.
There is no place any more even for classical economic theory: work was formerly an element in
demand, and to that extent there was respect for workers; international finance has made of it a
mere adjustment variable.
Every totalitarianism starts as distortion of language, as in the novel by George Orwell. Neoliberalism
has its Newspeak and strategies of communication that enable it to deform reality. In this spirit,
every budgetary cut is represented as an instance of modernization of the sectors concerned. If some
of the most deprived are no longer reimbursed for medical expenses and so stop visiting the dentist,
this is modernization of social security in action!
Abstraction predominates in public discussion so as to occlude the implications for human beings.
Thus, in relation to migrants, it is imperative that the need for hosting them does not lead to
public appeals that our finances could not accommodate. Is it In the same way that other individuals
qualify for assistance out of considerations of national solidarity?
The cult of evaluation
Social Darwinism predominates, assigning the most stringent performance requirements to everyone
and everything: to be weak is to fail. The foundations of our culture are overturned: every humanist
premise is disqualified or demonetized because neoliberalism has the monopoly of rationality and
realism. Margaret Thatcher said it in 1985:
There is no alternative."
Everything else is utopianism, unreason and regression. The virtue of debate and conflicting perspectives
are discredited because history is ruled by necessity.
This subculture harbours an existential threat of its own: shortcomings of performance condemn
one to disappearance while at the same time everyone is charged with inefficiency and obliged to
justify everything. Trust is broken. Evaluation reigns, and with it the bureaucracy which imposes
definition and research of a plethora of targets, and indicators with which one must comply. Creativity
and the critical spirit are stifled by management. And everyone is beating his breast about the wastage
and inertia of which he is guilty.
The neglect of justice
The neoliberal ideology generates a normativity that competes with the laws of parliament. The
democratic power of law is compromised. Given that they represent a concrete embodiment of liberty
and emancipation, and given the potential to prevent abuse that they impose, laws and procedures
have begun to look like obstacles.
The power of the judiciary, which has the ability to oppose the will of the ruling circles, must
also be checkmated. The Belgian judicial system is in any case underfunded. In 2015 it came last
in a European ranking that included all states located between the Atlantic and the Urals. In two
years the government has managed to take away the independence given to it under the Constitution
so that it can play the counterbalancing role citizens expect of it. The aim of this undertaking
is clearly that there should no longer be justice in Belgium.
A caste above the Many
But the dominant class doesn't prescribe for itself the same medicine it wants to see ordinary
citizens taking: well-ordered austerity begins with others. The economist Thomas Piketty has perfectly
described this in his study of inequality and capitalism in the twenty-first century (French edition,
Seuil, 2013).
In spite of the crisis of 2008 and the hand-wringing that followed, nothing was done to police
the financial community and submit them to the requirements of the common good. Who paid? Ordinary
people, you and me.
And while the Belgian State consented to 7 billion-euro ten-year tax breaks for multinationals,
ordinary litigants have seen surcharges imposed on access to justice (increased court fees, 21% taxation
on legal fees). From now on, to obtain redress the victims of injustice are going to have to be rich.
All this in a state where the number of public representatives breaks all international records.
In this particular area, no evaluation and no costs studies are reporting profit. One example: thirty
years after the introduction of the federal system, the provincial institutions survive. Nobody can
say what purpose they serve. Streamlining and the managerial ideology have conveniently stopped at
the gates of the political world.
The security ideal
Terrorism, this other nihilism that exposes our weakness in affirming our values, is likely to
aggravate the process by soon making it possible for all violations of our liberties, all violations
of our rights, to circumvent the powerless qualified judges, further reducing social protection for
the poor, who will be sacrificed to "the security ideal".
Salvation in commitment
These developments certainly threaten the foundations of our democracy, but do they condemn us
to discouragement and despair?
Certainly not. 500 years ago, at the height of the defeats that brought down most Italian states
with the imposition of foreign occupation for more than three centuries, Niccolo Machiavelli urged
virtuous men to defy fate and stand up against the adversity of the times, to prefer action and daring
to caution. The more tragic the situation, the more it necessitates action and the refusal to "give
up" (The Prince, Chapters XXV and XXVI).
This is a teaching that is clearly required today. The determination of citizens attached to the
radical of democratic values is an invaluable resource which has not yet revealed, at least in Belgium,
its driving potential and power to change what is presented as inevitable. Through social networking
and the power of the written word, everyone can now become involved, particularly when it comes to
public services, universities, the student world, the judiciary and the Bar, in bringing the common
good and social justice into the heart of public debate and the administration of the state and the
community.
Neoliberalism is a species of fascism. It must be fought and humanism fully restored.
AS an Amerikan the term neoliberal has a different impact I believe than it does in the context
of European use of the word. Could someone give a succinct definition of what the term means in
the context of European parlance.
I too have found this article and discussion incredibly interesting and enlightening, especially
in light of the potential nightmare of our next four years here in the states.
These same neo-fascists work with the NEOCON Party on the side of so-called Conservatives to pursue
Globalist repression, waste and population reduction genocide. In this way they keep both Conservative
and Liberal parties COVERED and dominated by Globalist dogma. To hell with Equity, Justice or
Fairness.
Funny how many critics of neo-liberalism are fascists such as Le Pen. That's because to be a fascist
is to be a nationalist and to believe in strong national governments. Neo-liberalism in contrast
supports the transfer of power to supra-national entities. The fascist economy is a mixed economy
with the national government able to exert immense power over the conduct of private business.
Neo-liberalism in contrast expects national governments to have no influence over private business.
The word 'Fascism' comes from 'fascio' in Italian meaning bundle or sheaf. If 'Fascism' as
a word is to have a meaning, it is to describe Italy under Mussolini. To use the same word to
describe 21st century globalisation is to negate the word's meaning.
A very good point, as, strictly speaking, by those terms, we should refer to neo-liberalism as
a transnational plutocracy, or at least that appears to be where it's heading. However for many
people, increasingly robbed of democracy and being bled dry, down at the sharp end of things,
there is little difference between the two systems in practice. Furthermore, the term Fascism
has long since passed into common parlance, to be widely viewed by many as simply anti-democratic
and supportive of a totalitarian regime, sometimes with nationalistic, or even racist connotations.
In this instance, you are very right to point out that neo-liberalism is neither racist, nor nationalistic
in nature, though it does, if left unchecked, lead to an hegemony of international moneyed interests
over the affairs and government of nation states, so we can at least say that it is anti-democratic
and supportive of totalitarianism (in this case, a plutocracy). I guess most of us do tend to
use the word out of context and quite offhand, and I am as guilty as the next man, but I do think
it's always a good thing to be pulled up on such things.
An excellent and most thought provoking article. I have long thought neoliberalism to be fascism,
except I arrived at that conclusion from an economic perspective, whilst researching the foundation
and rise of neoclassical economics. Also that quote from Orwell has haunted me for quite some
time, as it was a corruption of the very language of economics that lies at the heart of that
story, which is one that played out over 100 years ago. It's a story that involves the same moneyed
interests, the same use of public relations, and the same erosion of democracy in both political
and academic institutions, simply because it is the same story, and to fully understand neoliberalism,
you have to rewind about 120 years to pinpoint the preconditions for its inception. Fortunately
most of what happened did so in plain sight and is well documented. No laws were broken, as such,
but nevertheless, arguably one of the greatest crimes against humanity was set in motion for the
most banal reasons of economic protectionism. There is a way out of the problem, but it'll take
years and an incredible effort to reform what is to all intents and purposes a predominant religion
that has become ingrained into our society.
Shadia Drury is the author of a number of books on neconservatism, including "Leo Strauss And
The American Right." It's informative is somewhat confusing in places. A few authors and famous
people (Howard Zinn, Tommy Douglas) dispense with the academic minutiae and talk about fascism
in simple terms. It's good to know history, but the object of knowing is to be enabled. Learn
not in order to know, but in order to know how to proceed.
As Douglas noted, You don't have to wear brown shirts in order to be fascist. Huey Long, a
famous, corrupt American politician (who fought the capitalist class; It happens) was asked if
America would ever see fascism. He said yes, but it won't be called fascism. Indeed. Obama et
al call it democracy, just as Hitler called his Germany democratic.
If you reduce it to something useable (for purposes of mobilizing the working class), fascism
is simply a situation where the political class and the capitalist class jointly rule, telling
the people that because they have elections and can vote they therefore have democracy and a voice
when in reality the police state robs them of that. Media complies with elites' wishes or are
shut down in the name of national security. All opinions and protests get the same treatment.
And to keep the people's attention diverted from the abusers in power, you whip up nationalism.
Neoconservatism existed before it was formulated as such. Neocons 'believe' that a nation needs
to have an enemy and be at war in order to stay strong. If there's no enemy, then one must be
created. One can see how nationalisn (which isn't) patriotism, is useful to fascist leaders. And
can see how neoconservatism is convenient to certain powerful, entrenched special interests like
the military/intelligence industrial complex.
Strauss 'believed', as did Marx, that religion is the opiate of the people, but unlike Marx,
who wasn't thinking in terms of how to manage and exploit the people, Strauss felt that the people
should be given their fix. He saw it as another mechanism of control. (I see organized religion
as being a racket, even though I am religious.)
Neoconservatism is a political philosophy and neoliberalism is one type of social economic
system and they are both sides of the same evil coin. One needn't be a student of Strauss in order
to called a neocon, which is why you often find writers referring to Hillary Clinton as one.
I'd only point out that nationalism isn't a required ingredient at all. On the contrary. Nationalism
is often what the current order fears the most. The globalists, all of them neoliberals to a man
and a woman - use the language of internationalism. It's a fascist kind of internationalism, to
be sure, but cleverly deployed and manipulated, it gives them moral credibility in the eyes of
a large segment of the population.
Agreed in spades about neo-liberalism. But let us not forget the other side of the counter-revolutionary
coin, to wit, neo-conservatism. For the western ruling elites neo-liberalism is an attack directed
on its internal enemies, the 99% and neo-conservatism is an attack on its external enemies, principally
the Russian Federation and China, but in fact anyone who doesn't toe the Pentagon, State department
line. Austerity without end at home and a creeping dismantling of democracy, and everlasting war
abroad, that is the future: a global slave empire controlled through the Washington, Brussels,
London, Tel Aviv axis of evil. This is a fight to the death and the future of humanity depends
on the outcome.
WOW such a lightbulb moment. This makes my blood go into thermal nuclear boil. I have been saying
this for the last 30 years and now this quantum leap moment. I really hope we the sheeple can
wake up and really start getting all the elite to be accountable for they conspiracy. Since 1979
the west has been walking like a zombie towards fascism. Reagon and Thatcher were their front
persons . The Chicago school of economic theory.The Liberal interventionist. The helicopter money
to bail out the biggest fraud in the western financial history. Then they turn around and get
the PAYE public to bail them out. The sip[ their Champagne and eat their caviar and we live on
austerity. Hitler in drag will be the next POTUS and the MSM call Trump a xenophobic fascist when
we all know Hitlary and all her cohorts and all the western political establishment r fascist's.
That has been my point for over a quarter of a century. The use of the term democracy and veil
themselves in these hollow terms without any substance or facts is insulting at best. Putin,Xi
and Rohani have been trying now and hopefully they will prevail and once Syria settles down in
might c the dawn of a new pan -arabism which will start the century of humanism and human dynamism
for the good of all and not 64000 people. Gramsci forewarned us all from his cell in the 30's
and before him Engels as well. That is why i finish my spiel with this old journalistic quote.YESTERDAY'S
NEWS GETS WRAPPED IN TODAYS FISH. If only more humans would study and analyse history more maybe
we would not be in such a pickle.. Luv this website wish it had more pull and a following.
Yes, at least some familiarity with Wolin's concept of 'inverted totalitarianism' is absolutely
essential for understanding what is really happening in our world today. The fascism we have today
differs from the classical model in one key respect: the original fascist regimes were all of
the state-corporatist model, with an all-powerful government presiding over the banks and corporations;
our modern fascism, however, is of a new corporate-statist (and thus, according to Wolin, inverted)
variety, where the banks and the corporations completely control the state. Therefore, the age
of the Hitlers and Mussolinis–at least in the West–is over. Our so-called 'rulers' are really
nothing more than corporate executives or CEOs who serve at the leisure of a kind of hidden board
of directors, composed of those banks corporations we all know, and probably a few powerful oligarchs,
such as a the Rockefellers and the Rothschilds.
Liberal dupes, however, believe that we are still free, because they wrongly understand fascism
as an ideology (Racism! Nationalism! Xenophobia!) or else confuse it with certain systems of symbology
(swastikas, fasces, cool-looking uniforms, etc.). But in reality true fascism in neither an ideology
(false consciousness, as the Marxists would say), nor is it a particular system of symbology.
Fascism, properly understood is simply a state of affairs–namely, the total fusion of state
and corporate power. That was the definition Mussolini gave it long ago, and since he was
fascism's inventor, I'll take his word for it! The consequence of this is that fascism, in practice,
can adopt virtually any ideology or symbology, even some that might, at first glance, seem rather
'lefty'. In the west today, for example, the true fascists have now adopted cultural (not economic!)
Marxism as their ideology.
Ironically then, the new fascism has cleverly disguised itself as anti-fascism! Pretty
slick, eh?
Spot on Mussolini is the father of modern fascism , historically speaking fuedalism was an older
form of fascism. With the birth of industrial capitalism and nouveau bourgeoisie was the beginning
of modern day fascism. Mussolini from returning from the WW1 and being shun by fellow socialist
and the new founded Gramscian movement decided to form his own party. He was always into grandiosity
and ancient empire mythology. Most of the socialist including Gramsci did not support the WW1
they all identified it as the bankers war . Many leftist of the time also recognised the con job
in the USA with the rewritting the Federal reserve act of 1913 as the Private bankers taking over
the money supply of the US .
"... As a result of this protectionism, average pay for doctors is over $250,000 a year and more than $200,000 a year for dentists, putting the vast majority of both groups in the top 2.0 percent of wage earners. Their pay is roughly twice the average received by their counterparts in other wealthy countries, adding close to $100 billion a year ($700 per family per year) to our medical bill. ..."
"... We also have actively been pushing for longer and stronger patent and copyright protections. While these protections, like all forms of protectionism, serve a purpose, they are 180 degrees at odds with free trade. And, they are very costly. Patent protection in prescription drugs will lead to us pay more than $440 billion this year for drugs that would likely sell for less than $80 billion in a free market. The difference of $360 billion comes to almost $3,000 a year for every family in the country. ..."
"... It is also worth noting patent protection results in exactly the sort of corruption that would be expected from a huge government imposed tariff. (When patents raise the price of a drug by a factor of 100 or more, as is often the case , it is equivalent to a tariff of 10,000 percent.) The result is that pharmaceutical companies often make payoffs to doctors to promote their drugs or conceal evidence that their drugs are less effective than claimed or even harmful. ..."
"... Stop using the term "free trade" at all...when wall street bankers and hedge fund managers and the corporate media use the term "free trade", what they are really talking about is labor arbitrage. Shifting factories to nations with the lowest worker living standards, health, safety and environmental standards. It usually means a nation without a democracy, run by either oligarchs or despots. ..."
"... Bbbbut patents are essential to allow top executives to extract half the annual expenditures of unprofitable corporations in compensation while still leaving a few pennies for "research". ..."
"... Fake news...about a reliable as a Democrat's promise that he's for the working folks. ..."
"... The "law" of supply and demand just does not apply in this field. That "law" also does not work in certain other areas where important conclusions are drawn from it - applying it is not a substitute for empirical evidence. ..."
The Washington Post and other major news outlets are strong supporters of the trade policy pursued
by administrations of both political parties. They routinely allow their position on this issue to
spill over into their news reporting, touting the policy as "free trade." We got yet another
example of this in the Washington Post today.
Of course the policy is very far from free trade. We have largely left in place the protectionist
barriers that keep doctors and dentists from other countries from competing with our own doctors.
(Doctors have to complete a U.S. residency program before they can practice in the United States
and dentists must graduate from a U.S. dental school. The lone exception is for Canadian doctors
and dentists, although even here we have left
unnecessary
barriers in place.)
As a result of this protectionism, average pay for doctors is over $250,000 a year and more
than $200,000 a year for dentists, putting the vast majority of both groups in the top 2.0 percent
of wage earners. Their pay is roughly twice the average received by their counterparts in other wealthy
countries, adding close to $100 billion a year ($700 per family per year) to our medical bill.
While trade negotiators may feel this protectionism is justified, since these professionals lack
the skills to compete in the global economy, it is nonetheless protectionism, not free trade.
We also have actively been pushing for longer and stronger patent and copyright protections.
While these protections, like all forms of protectionism, serve a purpose, they are 180 degrees at
odds with free trade. And, they are very costly. Patent protection in prescription drugs will lead
to us pay more than $440 billion this year for drugs that would likely sell for less than $80 billion
in a free market. The difference of $360 billion comes to almost $3,000 a year for every family in
the country.
It is also worth noting patent protection results in exactly the sort of corruption that would
be expected from a huge government imposed tariff. (When patents raise the price of a drug by a factor
of 100 or more,
as is often the case , it is equivalent to a tariff of 10,000 percent.) The result is that pharmaceutical
companies often make payoffs to doctors to promote their drugs or
conceal evidence that their drugs are less effective than claimed or even harmful.
I was pleased to see that PBS looked into the matter of physician supply a few years ago..
They noted: "There are fewer physicians per person than in most other OECD countries. In 2010,
for instance, the US had 2.4 practicing physicians per 1000 people--well below the OECD average
of 3.1." They also noted that "US physicians get higher incomes than in other countries." They
didn't go so far as to note a cause-and-effect relationship here, a deliberate restriction of
supply going on, for purposes of raising MD incomes. But at least they were presenting the facts.
They even mentioned the $750 billion wasted each year by our health care system.. I expect
it's up to at least $3000 per person by now. And they suggested some good uses that so much money
could be put to (VA health care, state college education for all the 17- and 18-year-olds in the
country). I would like to add another use. If we were wasting less on overpriced health, more
people might be able to afford a little more leisure and recreation time. And this (especially
the recreation time) might lead to a lowering of our very high rates of obesity, diabetes and
prediabetes.
Physician density (as reported by CIA dot gov with dates) shows Canada with smaller ratio than
the U.S. but they still retain lower costs, and U.K. though higher by 10 or 15% has considerably
lower costs, and the U.S. has more specialists but they get higher incomes, and states with more
doctors have higher incomes.
We may need more doctors, especially general practitioners, and more medical schools since
8% of U.S. citizens are forced to train abroad already, but increased supply won't lower costs.
It is the medical system and not the supply of doctors that determines fees being charged, which
only amount to 10% of total costs. Cut their fees 30% and you still have a $1 trillion 1/3 cost
higher than other developed nations. Doctors are not the main cause of the dysfunctional system.
Look at what other countries do.
This bolsters my case, there is a high skills job shortage. Take 100,000 proposed increase
in doctors and give the jobs exclusively to foreign graduates, and you've robbed Americans of
needed jobs. College graduates only have a 2.5 percent unemployment rate because they take jobs
away from those without college. So lack of enough high skills jobs really hurts the working class
lower income groups with less formal education.
New argument, pay attention. No one would deny that a gap of 1 million jobs, or nearly 1% of
increased unemployment (really only .8% since there are 120 jobs), is enough to suppress wages,
induce slack in the economy, suppress growth, and possibly even create contraction or self sustaining
stagnation. Well a 100,000 new doctor jobs is only 1/10 of that amount. How important is that?
I would argue it's very important. 10 percent cause of any such serious effect as a 1 percent
rise in unemployment is nutty to dismiss. That's why we cheer when the unemployment drops even
.1 percent. You don't get the benefits of full employment until reach full employment, whether
1 percent away or .1 percent away. Really.
EPI
Even the Most Educated Workers Have Declining Wages
Feb 2015
Isn't 10 years and 1 million dollars too much for the average family practice physican to pay
to become a doctor. Reducing the cost of educating a doctor would be a better solution. Increasing
the use of midwives and nurse practicioners is another unexplored solution.
Stop using the term "free trade" at all...when wall street bankers and hedge fund managers
and the corporate media use the term "free trade", what they are really talking about is labor
arbitrage. Shifting factories to nations with the lowest worker living standards, health, safety
and environmental standards. It usually means a nation without a democracy, run by either oligarchs
or despots.
As best I can see, neither NAFTA or any other "free trade" agreement mentions anything about
wages, or for that matter worker health and safety, or environmental standards. The only purpose
of NAFTA and TPP was to force trade partners to accept US patent and copyright protections as
the price of access to the lucrative US market.
Dean's argumen that just because we import cheap foreign labor to displace American workers
in the contruction and lawn-mowing and housekeeping labor markets, it's fair and justified to
import highly educated professionals seems wrong-headed to me. Are you talking about extending
H1B Visa categories to include doctors.
In my opinion the people behind the high cost of highly educated professions is the AMA, and
the universities and education trade associations---who set the standards for doctors and lawyers,
and are the ones demanding foreigners complete American educational standards to be permitted
to work in the USA
The truth is the exact opposite of what you report. The medical educational establishment favors
increased admissions. The AMA is another story, perhaps. In any event you need more medical schools
for more doctors, not lower standards or importing more than the already high 12% foreign medical
school graduates we recruit each year.
Our high standards are fine. But already 8% of US citizens train abroad for lack of medical
schools. Even if you don't favor more doctors, that in itself screams for more U.S. medical schools.
From the Association of American Medical Colleges
Tuesday, March 14, 2017
New Research Reaffirms Physician Shortage
Shortages Likely to Have Significant Impact on Patient Care
More corrections: H1B can already include doctors, though 60 percent are in tech. Trade agreements
were not about patents and copyright, they were about making it easier to do what they were already
doing. No surprise is you lower barriers to trade, your domestic industry suffers in competition
with cheaper goods. Unions opposed them to protect their jobs. Do you think the union officials
were geniuses and the economists were stupid? Or was it common sense exactly what would happen
and that it was just too convenient for economists not to favor trade, deregulation of banks,
lower taxes, derivative markets, hedge funds.
Sound like "fake news"---the educational establishment supports increasing admissions but if
the price of admission is 10 years and 1 million dollars, well....so the cost of entry they charge
is usually a barrier to entry.. Aside from that, there is the standards for admission are set
by the educational establishment...so between the two, what have you got? A contrived limit on
doctors. Oh, but apologists for the educational establishment like you keep repeating the PR/BS
line that universities and trade unions want to increase admissions to medical schools.
Next another one of your "facts" that sounds seriously contradictory...that trade agreements
make things "easier" to do what they were doing. HUH? What does that mean? Look none of the trade
agreements have anything to do with anything except patent and copyright protection. If a trading
partner accepts patent and copyright protection for their economy, they get access to the Us market
without trade barriers. Except for productts that receive public subsidies, like franken-food
and growth hormone treated meat. So a trading partner is forced to remove the barriers to entry
on things like the growth hormone raised beef to Japan, and genetically modified and subsidized
crazycorn to Mexico. Is that what you mean by "making things easier"....Sure it makes things "easier"---but
is that the point? Or do citizens from Japan have the right to prohibit meat raised with growth
hormones? Or do Mexican citizens have the right to prohibit genetically raised corn?
Look, "free trade" is a utopian fantasy, invented by a bunch of liars to sell something to
the US consumer that isn't good for him.
Why don't you try reading what people wrote before posting under their comment? I'm against
trade agreements and increased trade that undercuts American workers.
Maybe you should read even the most elementary news report on the effect of NAFTA and China's
entry into the WTO. Patent and copyright protections were neither the main motivation nor an important
effect. China pays little heed to any IP law anyway and their state efforts to coerce and steal
American technology are barely concealed.
Japan doesn't buy American due to cultural norms, American incompetence, and laziness, and
Japanese protectionist laws and regulations.
Most free traders have been Republicans, and most objections to free trade have come from the
Democrats and the left. Except for Trump Clinton reversal, Liberals (and unions) can claim the
high ground over conservatives when it comes to trade issues. This blog and Dean Baker consistently
decries the effects of international trade and trade agreements effects on the working class.
There is a shortage of medical schools, there is no shortage of qualified students, admissions
standards do not prevent medical student enrollment from increasing. Your comment is virtually
fact free.
You obviously hate education and unions and real news.
Expanding doctor supply without major changes to the insurance system is as likely to increase
overall healthcare costs as reduce them. In the world of healthcare, demand increases to meet
supply.
The country with the insurance and healthcare system closest to the US is probably Switzerland
with the exception that costs are controlled with a national fee for service scale (TARMED).
The Swiss estimate that each new private medical practice adds $536,000 per doctor to the nation's
overall healthcare spending. This is one of the main reasons the Swiss limit the number of new
medical practices and control doctor immigration to balance demand. The Swiss are concerned about
rising costs and the government is now proposing to reduce the allowable charges by specialists.
Those that are attracted to Baker's immigration proposal should ask what is the long term consequence
of relying on immigration to fill the doctor shortfall and/or control cost. In the short run there
may be some average income reduction for physicians with little or no change in total healthcare
costs (remember total cost equals average income times the larger number of doctors). Longer term,
it restricts domestic investment in expansion of healthcare training and that is a restriction
of opportunity for all Americans.
Bbbbut patents are essential to allow top executives to extract half the annual expenditures
of unprofitable corporations in compensation while still leaving a few pennies for "research".
'U.S. Pursues Selective Protectionism: Not Free Trade'
Oh absolutely - and I'm also really worried about these doctors... and the meat - the meat
- as if we can't export all of our meat to China - we for sure will need more doctors to operate
on all these oversized boobs which will grow if we have to eat all of our hormone meat by ourselves
- and you know how painful it is to carry these big boobs around?
And I happen to know this Plastic Surgeon who told me we need lots and lot more Plastic Surgeons
-(as Americans get older and older) - and perhaps - if your plan finally comes through - also
facelifts will get cheaper - as who wants to have her or his face done in a undeveloped country
-(even if it comes with a nice and long vacation)
So more power to y'a and you finally have completely convinced me and let's do it together!
There is no protectionism when it comes to doctors as they are well represented by immigrants
who make up 12% of doctors, including new doctors, comparing favorably to the near record 13.5%
U.S. immigrant population.
U.S. doctors don't make twice the salary of other developed countries, with their incomes running
about 40% to 60% for GPs and specialists respectively.
More doctors should be supplied by relieving the shortage of medical schools, even an extra
100,000 would help the working class stop getting bumped into unemployment by an overskilled work
force. Too many college graduates and not enough jobs, so they bump off those without. They get
2.5% unemployment, those without north of 5 or 7%.
This paper cited below clearly shows we do not pay our doctors twice the salary of other developed
countries. The figure is actually around 40% for those in general practice, 60% for specialists,
and largely because U.S. salaries overall are higher (in every occupation). When you look at the
comparative advantage a doctors salary in any country enjoys over the average salary in that country,
even that advantage largely disappears. See figure 2 on page 16 for general practitioners and
and figure 6 on page 21 for specialists.
"THE REMUNERATION OF GENERAL PRACTITIONERS AND SPECIALISTS IN 14 OECD COUNTRIES: WHAT ARE THE
FACTORS INFLUENCING VARIATIONS ACROSS COUNTRIES?"
Unlike Dean Baker's anti-labor, anti-working class stance that we should end any protection
against importing cheaper foreign labor to undercut wages, we should of course afford the same
protections to all occupations.
It is the Democrat Party politics that is behind the high cost of doctors and lawyers. Why
because the Educational establishment---the trade associattions and the universities themselves
are the ones limiting the admissions, and the ones demanding that all medical professioanls get
their education and qualifications through themselves...And we all know that is the universities,
the education trade unions and their lobbiest that are one of the most powerful constituencies
for the Democrat Party.
The truth is the exact opposite of what you report. The medical educational establishment favors
increased admissions.
From the Association of American Medical Colleges
Tuesday, March 14, 2017
New Research Reaffirms Physician Shortage
Shortages Likely to Have Significant Impact on Patient Care
Sound like a "fake newa"...so the educational establishment's official public relations read
BULL-TOSS position is to support increased admissions to medical school. Yet the same establishment
imposed the "barrier to entry" cost of obtaining a doctor ticket, 10 years and 1 million dollars.
And who the heck sets the admission standards for their precious schools that results in the high
rejection rate of applicants.
Fake news...about a reliable as a Democrat's promise that he's for the working folks.
The OECD article should be read by anyone interested in this. Figure 11 shows that the number
of physicians in the US is close to the OECD average - in fact the number of specialists is actually
less, but the US level of pay is higher. Of course there is also no correlation of pay with the
fraction of foreign doctors.
And despite the supposed shortage of GP's in the US their pay is still much less. The "law"
of supply and demand just does not apply in this field. That "law" also does not work in certain
other areas where important conclusions are drawn from it - applying it is not a substitute for
empirical evidence.
The comparison of physician pay would be better if done with the overall median rather than
average. Greater inequality in the US means that the average pay is greater than in the other
countries.
While idiotic supporters of our two-party system wring their hands over the sensationalist nonsense
reported by the mainstream media, we thought it might be worth touching on the most dangerous lie
of all-time: neoliberalism. It's an all-encompassing delusion, including: the myth of continual technological
progress, the mendacious assumptions of endless economic growth, the lie that constant bombardments
of media and consumer goods make us happy, and the omissions of our involvement in the exploitation
of the planet and the resources of distant, poorer nations, among other things.
We've taken the time to hash out some of the most pernicious mendacities we've come across in
our (relatively) young lives, in the workplace, in our private lives, and in the media. ***
Please share these counter-arguments far and wide, in order to educate your fellow citizens, and,
if necessary, to provide the intellectual beat-downs needed when arguing with pro-neoliberals. So
without further ado, here is our list of the most devious "Lies that Neoliberals Tell Us":
1) Wealth will "trickle down"
It's hard to believe an economic policy that conjures images of urination could be wrong, but
the idea is as bankrupt as the lower classes who have been subjected to the trickling. Less than
ten people now have the financial wealth equivalent to half the planet, and the trickling seems a
lot more like a mad cash-grab by the (morally bankrupt) elites. Rather than trickle down, the 1%
and their lackeys have hoovered up the majority of new wealth created since the 2008 crash. After
40 years of stagnant wages in the US the people feel more shit on than trickled upon.
It's not a mistake that the elite reap most of the profits: the capitalist system is designed
this way, it always has been, and will be, until we the people find the courage to tear it down and
replace it with something better.
2) I took all the risks
It can be argued the average employee takes far more risks in any job than the average person
who starts a business with employees. The reason being is that the person starting a business usually
has far more wealth, where most
Americans can't afford a 500 dollar emergency. Meaning if they lose a job or go without work
for any stretch it means some tough decisions have to be made. A person with even a failing business
cannot be fired, but the employee can be fired for almost any reason imaginable, they are operating
without a net at all times.
The neoliberalism uses all sorts of public infrastructure to get his/her company off the ground.
From everything to the roads to get you to your job, colleges, public utilities, tax breaks, electricity,
etc. Even the internet itself was created from public research. Yet still, elite business owners
still have the audacity, and are so full of hubris, that they believe in the hyper-individualist,
macho, rugged-cowboy/pioneer façade they affect.
3) I could pay you more if there were less government regulations
Many neoliberals argue that layers of government bureaucracy prevent them from paying their employees
a fairer, living wage. This is a huge whopper, as our regulations (like no child labor, a minimum
wage, disability and worker's compensation, basic environmental impact studies, etc) actually provide
safety against the worst type of exploitation of workers and destruction of the land by corporations.
Without these minimum regulations, an age of even more outright neo-feudalism would occur, where
employees could be layed-off and rehired ad-infinitum, based on downward market wage forces, at the
wishes of ever-more capricious owners, management, and CEOs.
4) If you work hard, one day you can be rich like us (We live in a meritocracy)
America is not a meritocracy, and no one should think it is. There exists no tie to the intelligence
of work done or the amount of it that guarantees success. Rather to be rich depends more on either
being born into it, or being exceptionally good at exploiting others so one may take the bulk of
the proceeds for themselves. This is the magic formula for wealth in this ever so "exceptional" land
– exploit, exploit, exploit.
Inheritance & exploitation is how the rich get rich. To understand the exploitation aspect takes
some understanding of how the rich function. Next to none of the super rich become that way solely
by meritocracy. Their income is created through complex webs of utilizing leverage usually to extract
some form of passive income. They are the rentier class or con artists, or both.
Or take Bill Gates, who did some programming for a few years, poorly, and became rich by landing
a series of deals with IBM initially, and then by passively making money off the share values of
Microsoft. The late Steve Jobs may have been one of the more hands-on billionaires, but even he
required thousands of enslaved asian hands to extract the kind profits Apple was able to make.
Casino magnate Sheldon Adelson almost certainly has
organized crime links , as if owning a casino wasn't enough of a con to begin with.
Rich DeVos became a billionaire by running a pyramid scheme most are familiar with called Amway.
The Walton family, owners of Wal-Mart, pays a median wage of 10 bucks an hour (far below a living
wage), they strong arm vendors, and also rely on products made with working conditions that resemble
old world slavery, while having more wealth than the bottom 40% of Americans.
There's just no way to make that kind of money without having a major market advantage and then
profiteering off it. Lie, cajole, coerce, manipulate, bribe, rig, and hustle. These are the tools
of the rich.
No one is worth this kind of money and everyone needs each other's help to function, but in the
minds of the rich they consider themselves the primary cogs in the machine worthy of their money
for doing not much else than holding leverage over others and exploiting it.
5) This is as good as it gets (there is no alternative, TINA)
Through a process of gaslighting and double bind coercion the choices we are fed are propagandized
via controlled media outlets owned and operated by elites. We are told our choices must be between
the democrats or republicans, attacking the Middle East or face constant terrorism, unfettered neoliberalism
or state run communism. We are given binary choices that lack all nuance, and nuance is the enemy
of all those who seek to control and exploit. They feed us a tautology of simpleton narratives which
unfortunately do exactly what they hoped, keep people dumb and biting on their red herrings.
Neoliberals make it seems as if there is no alternative because they hoard all the money, have
all the hired guns, and pay off teams of servile lawyers, judges, and lobbyists to write and enforce
their anti-life laws. Neoliberals demand "law and order" whenever their servant classes get too restless.
In general, the most hardened, dogmatic neoliberals exhibit bewilderment and/or disgust at genuine
human emotions like joy, creativity, spontaneity, and love. Many neoliberals have an unconscious
death wish, and want to drag the rest of us and the mother Earth down with them.
Neoliberals have stolen all the farmlands, hold all the patents to technology, and don't pay enough
to mass amounts of citizens to get out of the rat race and get back to the land, to live off of.
The screws are turned a little tighter every year. If we are not done in by massive natural disasters
or an economic collapse, expect a revolution to occur, hopefully a non-violent one.
6) We give back to the community
Corporations set out to create non-profits as a public relations move. They cause the problems
and then put small band-aids on the gaping wounds they have directly contributed to and use the charity
as a source of plausible deniability to obscure the fact that they are exactly what we think they
are: greedy.
Handing out bread-crumbs after you've despoiled, desecrated, and bulldozed millions of hectares
of valuable habitat is not fooling anyone. The elite one-percenters are the enemies of humankind
and the biosphere itself.
7) The system (and economic theory) is rational and takes into account social and environmental
costs
People tend to think someone somewhere is regulating things to keep us safe. They look around
and see sophisticated technology, gleaming towers in the sky, and what they believe to be is a complex
intelligent world. But in truth no one is running the show. The world functions as a mad cash grab
driven by neo-liberal ideology. Our leaders are driven by power, fame, and money, and exhibit strong
psychopathic, sociopathic, and narcissistic traits.
The problems of modern neoliberalism and its impact on the world is clear – our exploitation of
the resources, people, and other species are a direct result of our consumer based infinite growth
model. Just a few of the problems we face are species extinction, climate change, ocean acidification,
and a toxic carcinogen filled trash dump of a planet that reached population overshoot decades ago.
If the system was rational, we would begin planning to lower birth rates to decrease the world's
population, and voluntarily provide education, decent, dignified jobs, as well as birth control and
contraception to women worldwide.
We live by money values, and think in money terminology. When we discuss healthcare the topic
arises about how to pay for it before nearly anything else. The priority isn't on saving lives but
how to pay for things. Yes, how will we pay for healthcare when banks can create money on a computer
through the magic of fractional reserve banking, which they often use to
bail out their crony friends . The money isn't real but the implications of restricting it from
the populace are. Money is created out of thin air by the magic of the Federal Reserve, yet we have
all heard our bosses, and the pricks in Washington complaining that "we don't have enough money for
that" when it comes to healthcare, improving schools, and humanitarian relief for the poorest parts
of the world.
Again, if the system was rational, world poverty would be solved within a few short years. Money
destined for weapons and "defense" could be used domestically as well as abroad to Africa, South
Asia, and Latin America, and there is more than enough money (75 trillion is the annual world GDP,
approximately 15 trillion in the US alone) to pay for a good home, clothing, and food for every family
worldwide, with an all-renewable powered energy grid.
8) The future will be better
When Trump's slogan make America great again was on the lips of every alt-right fascist, most
of us stopped to ask, when was it great? The truth is that politicians have been promising something
better since the inception of this country and better has never arrived.
There is always another expensive war to fight and another financial meltdown occurring on average
every eight years. Wait, you might say, what about those sweet post-WWII growth years brought about
by the New Deal? The sad truth is those years were only materially beneficial to white, middle-class
men, who were highly sexist, racist, and complicit in incubating today's consumer-driven
Empty Society
.
The post-WWII era was an aberration in our history and the result of having more jobs available
than people, but as the country rapidly exploited its natural resources and reached the limits of
linear growth while the population exploded the leverage that allowed people to have higher wages
receded. Even though efficiency increased enormously, the people lost leverage to demand higher wages.
Without leverage held by the people neoliberalism will return to its status quo goal – exploit,
and that's just what it did. In the US, corporations grew richer and the people grew poorer starting
from the mid 1970s to the present.
9) It's Just Business
Employees devote years of their lives to companies and when they are let go they are told it's
nothing personal, it's just business. This is how all bad news is delivered even when personal, it's
says we are cold-hearted organizations that adhere to a bottom line first and human needs second.
So know when they say "it's just business" what they are saying is understand we are sharks, and
acting like a shark is just what we do.
This is also the logic behind defending war crimes and similar atrocities. Nations like the US
claim they have a "responsibility to protect" civilians from terrorists. Then, when American bombs
kill civilians (or their proxies use US-made weapons), they are referred to as "collateral damage".
10) Financial markets & debt are necessary
The health of the entire economy is too often gauged by the stock markets. But the reality about
financial markets is they are extraneous gambling machines designed to place downward pressure on
companies to post good numbers to elevate share prices. These financial markets funnel capital to
a smaller and smaller number of multinational corporations every year, and perpetuate non-linear
economic growth (and therefore more pollutants, CO2, pesticides, strip mining, razing of forests)
that is killing the planet.
Debt is the most fundamental lie in our economy. Money is only supposed to be a tool to move goods
efficiently around a market, but for money itself to be a wealth engine is a Ponzi scheme. And we
all know how that ends.
*** For a wider taste of our oeuvre, visit
Reason
Bowl Radio to watch Jason expose the Trump administration for the sorry sacks of shit that they
are and discuss current events, as well as Jason and Bill's commentary and ramblings about topics
such as psychedelics, the nature of consciousness, and reflections on how to effect social change.
"... Most of the debt before the crisis was taken on by the 45+. They are 10 years older now and not about to re-leverage themselves. The growth will have to come from the younger group but they are full of student and car debt. Will they be able to buy houses for which prices have returned to pre-crisis levels? ..."
"... This leverage game depends on housing but it looks like we will be forced into a change of paradigm. ..."
"... Very well put. The ' leverage game ' comprises the whole neo-liberal paradigm which as you say depends on housing . ..."
"... Here in the UK until the last fifteen years or so, apart from a small number of very top end residential properties there was a ' property ladder ' we used to say . The meaning was that you could start at the bottom and if you chose to, could move up, and even though property prices moved up your wages were likely to increase, but your debt was being eroded bit by bit by inflation which kept the whole thing in sync. ..."
"... In a recession, a debt-burdened corporate sector behaves much as households do, cutting back particularly on capital investment. Government goes the opposite way, hiking debt during a recession to fund automatic stabilizers. But heavy gov't debt, like household debt, is a drag on consumption after a lag of several years. ..."
"... Focusing on household debt alone is of questionable value, when much broader debt aggregates are available. What's clear from the chart comparing household debt in six countries is that Canada and Australia are up to their necks in debt, largely owing to mortgage debt supported by their housing bubbles. ..."
"... When these housing bubbles burst - as bubbles invariably do - these two resource-oriented economies are going to be sucking wind. Unfortunately, in 2014 USgov started applying US income taxation to Canadians who stay 182 days a year or more in the US. Refugees from the Great White North who flee south will face a whole new level of pain when the US IRS works them over with a rubber hose. ..."
For some reason, many economists still don't see it!
Now the general meme is that after 10 years, balance sheets have slowly been repaired as if
these household would be about to remake the same debt mistakes.
Most of the debt before the crisis was taken on by the 45+. They are 10 years older now
and not about to re-leverage themselves. The growth will have to come from the younger group
but they are full of student and car debt. Will they be able to buy houses for which prices have
returned to pre-crisis levels?
This leverage game depends on housing but it looks like we will be forced into a change
of paradigm.
Very well put. The ' leverage game ' comprises the whole neo-liberal paradigm which as
you say depends on housing .
Here in the UK until the last fifteen years or so, apart from a small number of very top
end residential properties there was a ' property ladder ' we used to say . The meaning was that
you could start at the bottom and if you chose to, could move up, and even though property prices
moved up your wages were likely to increase, but your debt was being eroded bit by bit by inflation
which kept the whole thing in sync.
Those days are long gone and I think it is dawning on a lot of us that the game is finally
up for this paradigm and there is no going back. Hence the certain air of melancholy which pervades
the atmosphere.
I went to a little drinks party on Saturday evening and it was interesting how the room of
twenty or so people divided between those stuck in the status quo and those beginning to perceive
of a future beyond the status quo .
Globally, household debt is the smallest of the four commonly used categories of Household,
Corporate [non-financial], Government, and Financial. Chart:
In a recession, a debt-burdened corporate sector behaves much as households do, cutting
back particularly on capital investment. Government goes the opposite way, hiking debt during
a recession to fund automatic stabilizers. But heavy gov't debt, like household debt, is a drag
on consumption after a lag of several years.
Focusing on household debt alone is of questionable value, when much broader debt aggregates
are available. What's clear from the chart comparing household debt in six countries is that Canada
and Australia are up to their necks in debt, largely owing to mortgage debt supported by their
housing bubbles.
When these housing bubbles burst - as bubbles invariably do - these two resource-oriented
economies are going to be sucking wind. Unfortunately, in 2014 USgov started applying US income
taxation to Canadians who stay 182 days a year or more in the US. Refugees from the Great White
North who flee south will face a whole new level of pain when the US IRS works them over with
a rubber hose.
"... Ann Pettifor has become so disgusted with all of this "gee, we didn't know" and other incompetencies
that she has written a piece demanding that the government take a hard look at the economics profession
in a first step to making it responsive and responsible to the people. This is the UK, and we should
definitely do it here, US, too. ..."
Ann Pettifor has become so disgusted with all of this "gee, we didn't know" and other incompetencies
that she has written a piece demanding that the government take a hard look at the economics profession
in a first step to making it responsive and responsible to the people. This is the UK, and we
should definitely do it here, US, too.
From a class conflict perspective, the economics field is responsive to its constituency: the
1%. As Marx and others have pointed out, the ideological necessity of making what is unjust appear
as "There Is No Alternative" is the unstated core mandate of the economists. Therefore, despite
the ludicrousness of this analysis, I find it another chink in the armor of the dominant ideology
that the obvious is now being so gingerly discussed by mainstream economists, the chief ideological
propagandists of the 1%.
When households take on long-term debt, they increase current spending power but commit
to a pre-specified path of future debt service (interest payments and amortisations).
How much are these people paid to come up with these thrilling and original conclusions?
"... The entire spectrum of political thought from the neoliberal center to the reactionary right is really about setting up punitive systems of coercion and control. They hate the "losers" and want them punished. They really believe that the beatings should continue until morale improves, that if you make things unbearable people will pull themselves up by their bootstraps, and if they don't then they deserve all the cruelty that can be heaped upon them. ..."
"... The poor are errant children who need to be molded. Conservatives may whine about the "nanny state" but what they really want to see is either the negligent mommy state or the abusive daddy state. They want to "help" the poor the way a drill instructor wants to help you learn to obey and kill. And remember: it's for your own good. Perhaps I am being unfair, but beneath the platitudes this seems to be the motivating ideology of too much of the contemporary governing class. ..."
"... This is how totalitarian regimes operate and how they view the "brainiacs" of this World. Brainiacs are merely military assets to be deployed brutally against the enemy. Or, if the Brainiacs are perceived to be "Assets of the Enemy", they are targeted for destruction- First, Foremost and on the double! ..."
I used to think that much of modern conservatism was simply a misguided, wrong-headed alternative
attempt to formulate policies for the general welfare. Then I read Corey Robin's book The Reactionary
Mind and started reevaluating that presumption.
The entire spectrum of political thought from the neoliberal center to the reactionary
right is really about setting up punitive systems of coercion and control. They hate the "losers"
and want them punished. They really believe that the beatings should continue until morale improves,
that if you make things unbearable people will pull themselves up by their bootstraps, and if
they don't then they deserve all the cruelty that can be heaped upon them.
The poor are errant children who need to be molded. Conservatives may whine about the "nanny
state" but what they really want to see is either the negligent mommy state or the abusive daddy
state. They want to "help" the poor the way a drill instructor wants to help you learn to obey
and kill. And remember: it's for your own good. Perhaps I am being unfair, but beneath the platitudes
this seems to be the motivating ideology of too much of the contemporary governing class.
IMO, Parise (an economist) is following a well-worn "playbook".
(1) Identify the group targeted for liquidation. (Roma, Jew, kulak, Aborigine, American
Indian, American Deplorables .)
(2) Recruit insider scientists/intellectuals to to "discover" that the targeted group is
sub-normal cognitively (unworthy of Life).
(3) Have a Noble Cause that requires Tough Action by Determined Leaders (Collectivization,
Racial Purity, Bringing Christian Values, Saving the Planet .)
(4) Proceed, as Stalin would say, to "break the eggs to make the omelette". (Democide).
This is the "unpleasant cleansing" that, however disturbing, must be done for the "greater
good".
It is happening, as I speak, in the beautiful little town that I grew up in, on the banks of
the Ohio River, in Southern Ohio. (drugs and hopelessness)
Seventy-five years ago, it happened to my Jewish forebears in Belarus. Three hundred years
ago my Minqua (Iroquois) forbears were destroyed by this murderous rationalization.
This sort of article is not an exchange of ideas, but rather a crafted assault on a vulnerable
group of humanity (in this case, the Poor)
Thank you Yves for bringing this to our attention!
This last century, Scientists, Intellectuals, Academics, and Religious Leaders have been viewed
as Powerful Military Assets, or Military Threats by totalitarian regimes. They have been used
to progress the goals of regimes. (The Nazi Doctors of Auschwitz)
Or, if they question the regime, they are the first to be rounded up, jailed or murdered.
The Khmer Rouge immediately murdered anybody who wore glasses or had soft hands.(Intellectuals).
When the Soviet Union invaded Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia in 1940, the first thing the NKVD
did was round up local Scientists, Intellectuals, Academics, Religious Leaders and Cultural Leaders
and deport them to the Gulags or, more likely, kill them.
The Nazis behaved in exactly the same way with the Cultural leadership of Poland, Czechoslovakia,
Yugoslavia ..
This is how totalitarian regimes operate and how they view the "brainiacs" of this World.
Brainiacs are merely military assets to be deployed brutally against the enemy. Or, if the Brainiacs
are perceived to be "Assets of the Enemy", they are targeted for destruction- First, Foremost
and on the double!
I believe that we have a naive view of "experts"; imagining benign, tweed coated/skirted, helpful,
good-hearted, "Good Will Hunting" types. Thanks Hollywood!
Crocodile tears of WaPO staff... Who fully supported implementation of Washington consensus that
robbed the nations in favor of international companies... this was a new mass scale economic rape of
the Western countries and it was especially brutal in xUSSR area.
Nobel-winning economist Angus Deaton argues against giving aid to poor countries
It sounds kind of crazy to say that foreign aid often hurts, rather than helps, poor people
in poor countries. Yet that is what Angus Deaton, the newest
winner of the Nobel Prize in economics , has argued.
Deaton, an economist at Princeton University who studied poverty in India and South Africa
and spent decades working at the World Bank, won his prize for studying how the poor decide to
save or spend money. But his ideas about foreign aid are particularly provocative. Deaton argues
that, by trying to help poor people in developing countries, the rich world may actually be corrupting
those nations' governments and slowing their growth. According to Deaton, and the economists who
agree with him, much of the
$135 billion that the world's most developed countries spent on official aid in 2014 may not
have ended up helping the poor.
Angus Deaton (LARRY LEVANTI/AFP/Getty Images)
The idea of wealthier countries giving away aid blossomed in the late 1960s, as the first humanitarian
crises reached mass audiences on television. Americans watched through their TV sets as
children starved to death in Biafra, an oil-rich area that had seceded from Nigeria and was now
being blockaded by the Nigerian government, as Philip Gourevitch
recalled
in a 2010 story in the New Yorker. Protesters
called on
the Nixon administration for action so loudly that they ended up galvanizing the largest nonmilitary
airlift the world had ever seen. Only a quarter-century after Auschwitz, humanitarian aid seemed
to offer the world a new hope for fighting evil without fighting a war.
There was a strong economic and political argument for helping poor countries, too. In the
mid-20th century, economists widely believed that the key to triggering growth -- whether in an
already well-off country or one hoping to get richer -- was pumping money into a country's factories,
roads and other infrastructure. So in the hopes of spreading the Western model of democracy and
market-based economies, the United States and Western European powers encouraged foreign aid to
smaller and poorer countries that could fall under the influence of the Soviet Union and China.
The level of foreign aid distributed around the world
soared from the 1960s
, peaking at the end of the Cold War, then dipping before rising again.
Live
Aid music concerts raised public awareness about challenges like starvation in Africa, while
the United States launched major,
multibillion-dollar aid initiatives . And the World Bank and advocates of aid aggressively
seized on research that claimed that foreign aid led to economic development.
Deaton wasn't the first economist to challenge these assumptions, but over the past two decades
his arguments began to receive a great deal of attention. And he made them with perhaps a better
understanding of the data than anyone had before. Deaton's skepticism about the benefits of foreign
aid grew out of his research, which involved looking in detail at households in the developing
world, where he could see the effects of foreign aid intervention.
"I think his understanding of how the world worked at the micro level made him extremely suspicious
of these get-rich-quick schemes that some people peddled at the development level," says Daron
Acemoglu, an economist at MIT.
The data suggested that the claims of the aid community were sometimes not borne out. Even
as the level of foreign aid into Africa soared through the 1980s and 1990s, African economies
were doing worse than ever, as the chart below, from
a paper
by economist Bill Easterly of New York University, shows.
William Easterly, "Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?"
The effect wasn't limited to Africa. Many economists were noticing that an influx of foreign aid
did not seem to produce economic growth in countries around the world. Rather, lots of foreign aid
flowing into a country tended to be correlated with lower economic growth, as this chart from a paper
by Arvind Subramanian and Raghuram
Rajan shows.
The countries that receive less aid, those on the left-hand side of the chart, tend to have higher
growth -- while those that receive more aid, on the right-hand side, have lower growth.
Raghuram G. Rajan and Arvind Subramanian, "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really
Show?"
Why was this happening? The answer wasn't immediately clear, but Deaton and other economists argued
that it had to do with how foreign money changed the relationship between a government and its people.
Think of it this way: In order to have the funding to run a country, a government needs to collect
taxes from its people. Since the people ultimately hold the purse strings, they have a certain amount
of control over their government. If leaders don't deliver the basic services they promise, the people
have the power to cut them off.
Deaton argued that foreign aid can weaken this relationship, leaving a government less accountable
to its people, the congress or parliament, and the courts.
"My critique of aid has been more to do with countries where they get an enormous amount of aid
relative to everything else that goes on in that country," Deaton said in an interview with Wonkblog.
"For instance, most governments depend on their people for taxes in order to run themselves and provide
services to their people. Governments that get all their money from aid don't have that at all, and
I think of that as very corrosive."
It might seem odd that having more money would not help a poor country. Yet economists have long
observed that countries that have an abundance of wealth from natural resources, like oil or diamonds,
tend to be more unequal, less developed and more impoverished, as the chart below shows. Countries
at the left-hand side of the chart have fewer fuels, ores and metals and higher growth, while those
at the right-hand side have more natural resource wealth, yet slower growth. Economists postulate
that this "natural resource curse" happens for a variety of reasons, but one is that such wealth
can strengthen and corrupt a government.
Like revenue from oil or diamonds, wealth from foreign aid can be a corrupting influence on weak
governments, "turning what should be beneficial political institutions into toxic ones," Deaton writes
in his book "The Great Escape: Health, Wealth, and the Origins of Inequality." This wealth can make
governments more despotic, and it can also increase the risk of civil war, since there is less power
sharing, as well as a lucrative prize worth fighting for.
Deaton and his supporters offer dozens of examples of humanitarian aid being used to support despotic
regimes and compounding misery, including in Zaire, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Somalia, Biafra, and the Khmer
Rouge on the border of Cambodia and Thailand. Citing Africa researcher Alex de Waal, Deaton writes
that "aid can only reach the victims of war by paying off the warlords, and sometimes extending the
war."
He also gives plenty of examples in which the United States gives aid "for 'us,' not for 'them'"
– to support our strategic allies, our commercial interests or our moral or political beliefs, rather
than the interests of the local people.
The United States gave aid to Ethiopia for decades under then-President Meles Zenawi Asres, because
he opposed Islamic fundamentalism and Ethiopia was so poor. Never mind that Asres was "one of the
most repressive and autocratic dictators in Africa," Deaton writes.
According to Deaton, "the award for sheer creativity" goes to Maaouya Ould Sid'Ahmed Taya, president
of Mauritania from 1984 to 2005. Western countries stopped giving aid to Taya after his government
became too politically repressive, but he managed to get the taps turned on again by becoming one
of the few Arab nations to recognize Israel.
Some might argue for bypassing corrupt governments altogether and distributing food or funding
directly among the people. Deaton acknowledges that, in some cases, this might be worth it to save
lives. But one problem with this approach is that it's difficult: To get to the powerless, you often
have to go through the powerful. Another issue, is that it undermines what people in developing countries
need most -- "an effective government that works with them for today and tomorrow,"
he writes .
The old calculus of foreign aid was that poor countries were merely suffering from a lack of money.
But these days, many economists question this assumption, arguing that development has more to do
with the strength of a country's institutions – political and social systems that are developed through
the interplay of a government and its people.
There are lot of places around the world that lack good roads, clean water and good hospitals,
says MIT's Acemoglu: "Why do these places exist? If you look at it, you quickly disabuse yourself
of the notion that they exist because it's impossible for the state to provide services there." What
these countries need even more than money is effective governance, something that foreign aid can
undermine, the thinking goes.
Some people believe that Deaton's critique of foreign aid goes too far. There are better and worse
ways to distribute foreign aid, they say. Some project-based approaches -- such as financing a local
business, building a well, or providing uniforms so that girls can go to school -- have been very
successful in helping local communities. In the last decade, researchers have tried to integrate
these lessons from economists and argue for more effective aid practices.
Many people believe that the aid community needs more scrutiny to determine which practices have
been effective and which have not. Economists such as Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo, for example,
argue for creating
randomized control trials that allow researchers to carefully examine the development effects of
different types of projects -- for example, following microcredit as it is extended to people in
poor countries.
These methods have again led to a swell in optimism in professional circles about foreign aid
efforts. And again, Deaton is playing the skeptic.
While Deaton agrees that many development projects are successful, he's
critical of claims that these projects can be replicated elsewhere or on a larger scale. "The
trouble is that 'what works' is a highly contingent concept," he said in an interview. "If it works
in the highlands of Kenya, there's no reason to believe it will work in India, or that it will work
in Princeton, New Jersey."
The success of a local project, like microfinancing, also depends on numerous other local factors,
which are harder for researchers to isolate. Saying that these randomized control trials prove that
certain projects cause growth or development is like saying that flour causes cake, Deaton writes
in his book. "Flour 'causes' cakes, in the sense that cakes made without flour do worse than cakes
made with flour – and we can do any number of experiments to demonstrate it – but flour will not
work without a rising agent, eggs, and butter – the helping factors that are needed for the flour
to 'cause' the cake."
Deaton's critiques of foreign aid stem from his natural skepticism of how people use -- and abuse
-- economic data to advance their arguments. The science of measuring economic effects is much more
important, much harder and more controversial than we usually think, he told The Post.
Acemoglu said of Deaton: "He's challenging, and he's sharp, and he's extremely critical of things
he thinks are shoddy and things that are over-claiming. And I think the foreign aid area, that policy
arena, really riled him up because it was so lacking in rigor but also so grandiose in its claims."
Deaton doesn't argue against all types of foreign aid. In particular, he believes that certain
types of health aid – offering vaccinations, or developing cheap and effective drugs to treat malaria,
for example -- have been hugely beneficial to developing countries.
But mostly, he said, the rich world needs to think about "what can we do that would make lives
better for millions of poor people around the world without getting into their economies in the way
that we're doing by giving huge sums of money to their governments." Overall, he argues that we should
focus on doing less harm in the developing world, like selling fewer weapons to despots, or ensuring
that developing countries get a fair deal in trade agreements, and aren't harmed by U.S. foreign
policy decisions.
Deaton also believes that our attitude toward foreign aid – that developed countries ought to
swoop in and save everyone else – is condescending and suspiciously similar to the ideas of colonialism.
The rhetoric of colonialism, too, "was all about helping people, albeit about bringing civilization
and enlightenment to people whose humanity was far from fully recognized," he has written.
Instead, many of the positive things that are happening in Africa – the huge adoption in cell
phones over the past decade, for example – are totally homegrown. He points out that, while the world
has made huge strides in reducing poverty in recent decades, almost none of this has been due to
aid. Most has been due to development in countries like China, which have received very little aid
as a proportion of gross domestic product and have "had to work it out for themselves."
Ultimately, Deaton argues that we should stand aside and let poorer countries develop in their
own ways. "Who put us in charge?" he asks.
"... "Struggling " is a far better term if we need a category for distressed citizens. Jobless of course leaves out The huge Category of low wage short hours households. Liberals want to help, want to be charitable, but the real social blight is lack of opportunity to make a decent living thru wage work ..."
"... Safety nets are not necessary if opportunity provides alternatives. More jobs more hours ..."
"... And instead we curb the jobs and hours expansion rate because we refuse to socialize even in part the pricing mechanism ..."
"... That was war time and we "tolerated" rations and price boards for the war effort ..."
"... A similar sense of urgency however can be instilled if leading circles embrace the effort ..."
"... We moved from the landed aristocracy to the landed gentry. Democracy still remains to be seen in full light of day, even relatively representative. ..."
"... Distribution system of US/EU capitalism has failed. [It is a ] systemic plunder* it passed ..."
"... Well yeah, but that is the best that we can get with largely unanswerable elites in charge of everything. Patronizing triangulation is the natural modus operandi for republican politics under a system of dollar democracy and arcane rules of compartmentalized representation. Sure, pure democracy is too cumbersome, but would a rough approximate of representativeness be too much to ask? ..."
I hate the the use of word "THE POOR " by liberal politicians It's like deplorable It's an insult
"Struggling " is a far better term if we need a category for distressed citizens. Jobless
of course leaves out The huge Category of low wage short hours households. Liberals want to help,
want to be charitable, but the real social blight is lack of opportunity to make a decent living
thru wage work
Wage rates and hours
Households cope with this blight. They struggle tinline and hold on to some happiness in the
Jeffersonian use of the word happiness
Most people are complicated and Thomas Jefferson was no exception. The better part of him was
associated with James Maddison and largely came from Thomas Paine.
But TJ had far too many personal problems to be held up like a saint. To be fair his time was
well before even a faint glimmer of effective democracy during the dawn of the modern quasi-electorally
appointed republic, an institution designed to emphasize property rights economic and political
efficacy over inherited bloodlines.
We moved from the landed aristocracy to the landed gentry. Democracy still remains to be
seen in full light of day, even relatively representative.
Well yeah, but that is the best that we can get with largely unanswerable elites in charge
of everything. Patronizing triangulation is the natural modus operandi for republican politics
under a system of dollar democracy and arcane rules of compartmentalized representation. Sure,
pure democracy is too cumbersome, but would a rough approximate of representativeness be too much
to ask?
Unfortunatly Russia has its own fifth column of "Chicago boys" (called Chubasyata) to implement those distarous for common people
measures
What Russia needed at the time was a Marshall plan. Instead Clinton mefia (Which at the very top included Rubin and Summers) adopted
the plan to plunder and colonize Russia. It did not work.
Structural factors in the economic reforms of China, Eastern Europe, and the Former Soviet Union
By Jeffrey Sachs and Wing Thye Woo
Discussion
By Stanley Fischer - Massachusetts Institute of Technology
The facts with which Jeffrey Sachs and Wing Woo have to contend are, first, that Chinese economic reform has been successful in
producing extraordinary growth - the greatest increase in economic well-being within a 15-year period in all of history (perhaps
excluding the period after the invention of fire); but second, that reform in Eastern Europe and the Former Soviet Union (EEFSU)
has been accompanied not by growth but by massive output declines (in countries that are reforming as well as in those, such as Ukraine,
which are not).
The interpretation of these facts with which they have to contend is that Chinese reform - described variously as piecemeal, pragmatic,
bottom-up, or gradual - has been successful because it has been gradualist and EEFSU reform has failed because it has applied shock
treatment. The conclusion is that EEFSU should have pursued a gradualist reform strategy, perhaps one that started with economic
rather than political reform. Many also imply that there is still time for gradualism.
Sachs and Woo reject the view that economic reform in EEFSU should have been gradualist, though they do approve of the gradualist
Chinese approach to the creation of a non-state industrial sector. They argue that the structure of the economy was responsible for
the success of the Chinese reform strategy, and that there are no useful lessons for EEFSU from the Chinese case.
Reform in China started in an economy in which 80 percent of the population was rural, in which planning had never been pervasive,
and in which economic control was in any case quite decentralized. Further, Chinese industrial growth has come largely from new firms,
largely town and village enterprises, and there has been no reform of the state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector. In EEFSU by contrast,
the industrial sector was extremely large, and there was no hope of starting a significant private sector without restructuring industry.
The authors make this argument with the aid of a model, basically one that says that the private sector in a reforming EEFSU economy
is so heavily taxed that it does not pay an individual to move to that sector from the subsidized industrial sector. In China by
contrast, agricultural reform freed up labour whose opportunity cost was below the earnings available in the industrial private (or
at least TVE) sector - and in addition, because the SOE sector was relatively small, the industrial private sector was taxed less
than in EEFSU. The model is linear and ignores uncertainty, but there can be no doubt that it is very difficult to start new firms
in much of EEFSU. That, more than the earnings of an individual already in that sector, seems to be the equivalent of the tax that
Sachs and Woo include; indeed, earnings for those who succeed in moving to the private sector are typically higher than they are
in the state sector.
Sachs and Woo also argue that the data exaggerate China's success and EEFSU's output declines. I was initially inclined to discount
this argument, but now believe it has a real basis, and that all that needs doing is to fill in the numbers....
Reading the paper by Samuel Marden, which was important in understanding the economic transformation of China, was also an important
experience in understanding why Jeffrey Sachs, Wing Thye Woo and Stanley Fischer expressly rejected the Chinese experience in
looking to a development model for the Soviet Union as the Soviet Union was geographically transformed.
The Chinese development model worked dramatically well, the Soviet model that Sachs, Wing and Fischer supported was as dramatically
disruptive and self-defeating.
Thousands of workers face unemployment as retailers
struggle to adapt to online shopping. But even as
e-commerce grows, it isn't absorbing these workers.
JOHNSTOWN, Pa. - Dawn Nasewicz comes from a family of
steelworkers, with jobs that once dominated the local
economy. She found her niche in retail.
She manages a store, Ooh La La, that sells prom dresses
and embroidered jeans at a local mall. But just as the jobs
making automobile springs and rail anchors disappeared, local
retail jobs are now vanishing.
"I need my income," said Ms. Nasewicz, who was told that
her store will close as early as August. "I'm 53. I have no
idea what I'm going to do."
Ms. Nasewicz is another retail casualty, one of tens of
thousands of workers facing unemployment nationwide as the
industry struggles to adapt to online shopping.
Continue reading the main story
Photo
A sporting goods store in a Johnstown, Pa., mall is having a
going-out-of-business sale. Credit George Etheredge for The
New York Times
Small cities in the Midwest and Northeast are particularly
vulnerable. When major industries left town, retail accounted
for a growing share of the job market in places like
Johnstown, Decatur, Ill., and Saginaw, Mich. Now, the work
force is getting hit a second time, and there is little to
fall back on.
Moreover, while stores in these places are shedding jobs
because of e-commerce, e-commerce isn't absorbing these
workers. Growth in e-commerce jobs like marketing and
engineering, while strong, is clustered around larger cities
far away. Rural counties and small metropolitan areas account
for about 23 percent of traditional American retail
employment, but they are home to just 13 percent of
e-commerce positions.
E-commerce has also fostered a boom in other industries,
including warehouses. But most of those jobs are being
created in larger metropolitan areas, an analysis of Census
Bureau business data shows.
Almost all customer fulfillment centers run by the online
shopping behemoth Amazon are in metropolitan areas with more
than 250,000 people - close to the bulk of its customers -
according to a list of locations compiled by MWPVL
International, a logistics consulting firm. An Amazon
spokeswoman noted, however, that the company had recently
opened warehouses in two distressed cities in larger
metropolitan areas, Fall River, Mass., and Joliet, Ill.
The Johnstown metropolitan area, in western Pennsylvania,
has lost 19 percent of its retail jobs since 2001, and the
future is uncertain. At least a dozen of Ooh La La's
neighbors at the mall have closed, and a "Going out of
business" banner hangs across the front of the sporting goods
store Gander Mountain.
"Every time you lose a corner store, every time you lose a
restaurant, every time you lose a small clothing store, it
detracts from the quality of life, as well as the job loss,"
said John McGrath, a professor of management at the
University of Pittsburgh Johnstown.
This city is perhaps still best known for a flood that
ravaged it nearly 130 years ago. After rebuilding, Johnstown
eventually became prosperous from its steel and offered a
clear path to the middle class. For generations, people could
walk out of high school and into a steady factory job.
But today, the area bears the marks of a struggling town.
Its population has dwindled, and addiction treatment centers
and Dollar Generals stand in place of corner grocers and
department stores like Glosser Brothers, once owned by the
family of Stephen Miller, President Trump's speechwriter and
a policy adviser.
When Mr. Trump spoke about "rusted-out factories scattered
like tombstones across the landscape of our nation" in his
Inaugural Address, people like Donald Bonk, a local economic
development consultant, assumed that Mr. Miller - who grew up
in California but spent summers in Johnstown - was writing
about the old Bethlehem Steel buildings that still hug long
stretches of the Little Conemaugh River.
The county voted overwhelmingly for Mr. Trump, eight years
after it helped to elect Barack Obama. (It also voted for
Mitt Romney in 2012, but not by as wide a margin.)
Here and in similar towns, when the factory jobs left, a
greater share of the work force ended up in retail.
Sometimes that meant big-box retailers like Walmart, which
were often blamed for destroying mom-and-pop stores but at
least created other jobs for residents. The damage from
e-commerce plays out differently. Digital firms may attract
customers from small towns, but they are unlikely to employ
them.
Some remaining retailers are straining for solutions. ...
This is a warning to several prominent commenters of this blog: it is quite possible that Faustian
bargain of alliance with the deep state to depose Trump might backfire and produce completely
opposite result -- strong and durable alliance of Trump and the deep state on the basis of the
same model that existed from 2003 -- inverted totalitarism introduced by Bush II. In this case
you can kiss hopes not only for impeachment, but also for 2020 reversal goodbye.
Many "never-Trumpers" see the deep state's national security bureaucracy as their best hope
to destroy Trump and thus defend constitutional government, but those hopes are misguided.
After all, the deep state's bureaucratic leadership has worked arduously for decades to
subvert constitutional order.
As Michael Glennon, author of National Security and Double Government, pointed out in a
June 2017 Harper's essay, if "the president maintains his attack, splintered and demoralized
factions within the bureaucracy could actually support - not oppose - many potential Trump
initiatives, such as stepped-up drone strikes, cyberattacks, covert action, immigration bans,
and mass surveillance."
Inverted totalitarism is completely compatible with Trump_vs_deep_state ("bastard neoliberlaism"):
Princeton University political theorist Sheldon Wolin described the US political system
in place by 2003 as "inverted totalitarianism." He reaffirmed that in 2009 after seeing a year
of the Obama administration. Correctly identifying the threat against constitutional governance
is the first step to restore it, and as Wolin understood, substantive constitutional government
ended long before Donald Trump campaigned. He's just taking unconstitutional governance to
the next level in following the same path as his recent predecessors.
However, even as some elements of the "deep state" seek to remove Trump, the President now
has many "deep state" instruments in his own hands to be used at his unreviewable discretion.
"... What's needed is not the arbitrary adoption of UBI, but a conversation about what a welfare state is for. In their incendiary book Inventing the Future, the authors Alex Williams and Nick Srnicek argue for UBI but link it to three other demands: collectively controlled automation, a reduction in the working week, and a diminution of the work ethic. Williams and Srnicek believe that without these other provisions, UBI could essentially act as an excuse to get rid of the welfare state. ..."
"... What's needed is not the arbitrary adoption of UBI, but an entirely different conversation about what a welfare state is for. As David Lammy MP said, after the Grenfell Tower disaster: "This is about whether the welfare state is just about schools and hospitals or whether it is about a safety net." The conversation, in light of UBI, could go even further: it's possible for the welfare state not just to act as a safety net, but as a tool for all of us to do less work and spend more time with our loved ones, pursuing personal interests or engaging in our communities. ..."
Lane Kenworthy's article shows how America is already great, with many more people working
in poverty than in the UK, Ireland or Australia. Maybe the robots stole better paying jobs? Maybe
they need more education and to skill up?
Love the idea of a universal basic income? Be careful what you wish for
Ellie Mae O'Hagan
Friday 23 June 2017 10.36 EDT
Yes, UBI could be an important part of a radical agenda. But beware: its proponents include
neoliberals hostile to the very idea of the welfare state
For some time now, the radical left has been dipping its toes in the waters of universal basic
income (or unconditional basic income, depending on who you talk to). The idea is exactly as it
sounds: the government would give every citizen – working or not – a fixed sum of money every
week or month, with no strings attached. As time goes on, universal basic income (UBI) has gradually
been transitioning from the radical left into the mainstream: it's Green party policy, is picking
up steam among SNP and Labour MPs and has been advocated by commentators including this newspaper's
very own John Harris.
Supporters of the idea got a boost this week with the news that the Finnish government has
piloted the idea with 2,000 of its citizens with very positive results. Under the scheme, the
first of its kind in Europe, participants receive €560 (£473) every month for two years without
any requirements to fill in forms or actively seek work. If anyone who receives the payment finds
work, their UBI continues. Many participants have reported "decreased stress, greater incentives
to find work and more time to pursue business ideas." In March, Ontario in Canada started trialling
a similar scheme.
Given that UBI necessarily promotes universalism and is being pursued by liberal governments
rather than overtly rightwing ones, it's tempting to view it as an inherently leftwing conceit.
In January, MEPs voted to consider UBI as a solution to the mass unemployment that might result
from robots taking over manual jobs.
From this perspective, UBI could be rolled out as a distinctly rightwing initiative. In fact
it does bear some similarity to the government's shambolic universal credit scheme, which replaces
a number of benefits with a one-off, lower, monthly payment (though it goes only to people already
on certain benefits, of course). In the hands of the right, UBI could easily be seen as a kind
of universal credit for all, undermining the entire benefits system and providing justification
for paying the poorest a poverty income.
In fact, can you imagine what UBI would be like if it were rolled out by this government, which
only yesterday promised to fight a ruling describing the benefits cap as inflicting "real misery
to no good purpose"?
Despite the fact that the families who brought a case against the government had children too
young to qualify for free childcare, the Department for Work and Pensions still perversely insisted
that "the benefit cap incentivises work". It's not hard to imagine UBI being administered by the
likes of A4e (now sold and renamed PeoplePlus), which carried out back-to-work training for the
government, and saw six of its employees receive jail sentences for defrauding the government
of £300,000. UBI cannot be a progressive initiative as long as the people with the power to implement
it are hostile to the welfare state as a whole.
What's needed is not the arbitrary adoption of UBI, but a conversation about what a welfare
state is for. In their incendiary book Inventing the Future, the authors Alex Williams and Nick
Srnicek argue for UBI but link it to three other demands: collectively controlled automation,
a reduction in the working week, and a diminution of the work ethic. Williams and Srnicek believe
that without these other provisions, UBI could essentially act as an excuse to get rid of the
welfare state.
What's needed is not the arbitrary adoption of UBI, but an entirely different conversation
about what a welfare state is for. As David Lammy MP said, after the Grenfell Tower disaster:
"This is about whether the welfare state is just about schools and hospitals or whether it is
about a safety net." The conversation, in light of UBI, could go even further: it's possible for
the welfare state not just to act as a safety net, but as a tool for all of us to do less work
and spend more time with our loved ones, pursuing personal interests or engaging in our communities.
UBI has this revolutionary potential – but not if it is simply parachuted into a political
economy that has been pursuing punitive welfare policies for the last 30 years.
On everything from climate change and overpopulation to yawning inequality and mass automation,
modern western economies face unprecedented challenges. These conditions are frightening but they
also open up the possibility of the kind of radical policies we haven't seen since the postwar
period. UBI could be the start of this debate, but it must not be the end.
> "One of the reasons I support UBI is that it
refocuses political discussions to some of the fundamental
issues, as this article points out."
I agree.
UBI might probably be the most viable first step of
Trump's MAGA. But he betrayed his electorate. Similarly it would be a good step in Obama's "change we
can believe in" which never materialized.
The level of automation that currently exists makes UBI
quite a possibility.
But...
The problem is the key idea of neoliberalism is
"socialism for rich and feudalism and/or plantation
slavery for poor."
So neither Republicans, nor Clinton Democrats are
interested in UBI. It is anathema for neoliberals.
> Define "neoliberal" as you mean it otherwise it is a meaningless word
Let my try.
Like a communist is the person who subscribed/is indoctrinated/brainwashed into Marxism as
an ideology (which is actually different from Marxism as a political economy; Marx claimed that
he is not a Marxist), neoliberal is the person who subscribed/is indoctrinated/brainwashed to
neoliberalism as an ideology.
Neoliberalism as an ideology was formulated mainly by Mont Pelerin Society with academic criminals
of Chicago School such as Milton Friedman playing outsize role.
We can assume that neoliberals are in power, and neoliberalism is enforced as the dominant
ideology in the USA since 1980. Since 9/11 it took a new form called "inverse totalitarism" (Sheldon
Wolin) -- a flavor of national security state without mass repression of opponents. The suppression
is performed mainly by exclusion and silencing of the opponents. But the level of surveillance
of citizens probably exceeds the level typical for GDR with its STASI.
Neoclassic economics is the major tool for the indoctrination into neoliberalism in the US
universities. Ann Rand objectivism is another pillar of neoliberalism ("creators myth").
1.THE RULE OF THE MARKET. Liberating "free" enterprise or private enterprise from any bonds
imposed by the government (the state) no matter how much social damage this causes. Greater
openness to international trade and investment, as in NAFTA. Reduce wages by de-unionizing
workers and eliminating workers' rights that had been won over many years of struggle. No more
price controls. All in all, total freedom of movement for capital, goods and services. To convince
us this is good for us, they say "an unregulated market is the best way to increase economic
growth, which will ultimately benefit everyone." It's like Reagan's "supply-side" and "trickle-down"
economics -- but somehow the wealth didn't trickle down very much.
2.CUTTING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE FOR SOCIAL SERVICES like education and health care. REDUCING
THE SAFETY-NET FOR THE POOR, and even maintenance of roads, bridges, water supply -- again
in the name of reducing government's role. Of course, they don't oppose government subsidies
and tax benefits for business.
3.DEREGULATION. Reduce government regulation of everything that could diminsh profits, including
protecting the environmentand safety on the job.
4.PRIVATIZATION. Sell state-owned enterprises, goods and services to private investors.
This includes banks, key industries, railroads, toll highways, electricity, schools, hospitals
and even fresh water. Although usually done in the name of greater efficiency, which is often
needed, privatization has mainly had the effect of concentrating wealth even more in a few
hands and making the public pay even more for its needs.
5.ELIMINATING THE CONCEPT OF "THE PUBLIC GOOD" or "COMMUNITY" and replacing it with "individual
responsibility." Pressuring the poorest people in a society to find solutions to their lack
of health care, education and social security all by themselves -- then blaming them, if they
fail, as "lazy."
The unofficial manifest of neoliberalism is "Capitalism and Freedom" by Milton Friedman (1962,
University of Chicago Press). In foreign policy neoliberalism is defined by so called Washington
consensus (Wikipedia):
1.Fiscal policy discipline, with avoidance of large fiscal deficits relative to GDP;
2.Redirection of public spending from subsidies ("especially indiscriminate subsidies")
toward broad-based provision of key pro-growth, pro-poor services like primary education, primary
health care and infrastructure investment;
3.Tax reform, broadening the tax base and adopting moderate marginal tax rates;
4.Interest rates that are market determined and positive (but moderate) in real terms;
5.Competitive exchange rates;
6.Trade liberalization: liberalization of imports, with particular emphasis on elimination
of quantitative restrictions (licensing, etc.); any trade protection to be provided by low
and relatively uniform tariffs;
7.Liberalization of inward foreign direct investment;
8.Privatization of state enterprises;
9.Deregulation: abolition of regulations that impede market entry or restrict competition,
except for those justified on safety, environmental and consumer protection grounds, and prudential
oversight of financial institutions;
10.Legal security for property rights.
Neoliberalism is closely connected (but is not identical) with the Neoconservatism in the USA
(Trotskyism for the rich). Simplifying, neocons are just neoliberals with the gun.
Like Trotskyism and Bolshevism before, neoliberalism creates its own form of perverted rationality
called "neoliberal rationality"
http://lchc.ucsd.edu/cogn_150/Readings/brown.pdf
Here are some quotes from Wendy Brown interview "What Exactly Is Neoliberalism" to
Dissent Magazine (Nov 03, 2015):
"... I treat neoliberalism as a governing rationality through which everything is "economized"
and in a very specific way: human beings become market actors and nothing but, every field of
activity is seen as a market, and every entity (whether public or private, whether person, business,
or state) is governed as a firm. Importantly, this is not simply a matter of extending commodification
and monetization everywhere-that's the old Marxist depiction of capital's transformation of everyday
life. Neoliberalism construes even non-wealth generating spheres-such as learning, dating, or
exercising -- in market terms, submits them to market metrics, and governs them with market techniques
and practices. Above all, it casts people as human capital who must constantly tend to their own
present and future value. ..."
"... The most common criticisms of neoliberalism, regarded solely as economic policy rather
than as the broader phenomenon of a governing rationality, are that it generates and legitimates
extreme inequalities of wealth and life conditions; that it leads to increasingly precarious and
disposable populations; that it produces an unprecedented intimacy between capital (especially
finance capital) and states, and thus permits domination of political life by capital; that it
generates crass and even unethical commercialization of things rightly protected from markets,
for example, babies, human organs, or endangered species or wilderness; that it privatizes public
goods and thus eliminates shared and egalitarian access to them; and that it subjects states,
societies, and individuals to the volatility and havoc of unregulated financial markets. ..."
"... with the neoliberal revolution that homo politicus is finally vanquished as a fundamental
feature of being human and of democracy. Democracy requires that citizens be modestly oriented
toward self-rule, not simply value enhancement, and that we understand our freedom as resting
in such self-rule, not simply in market conduct. When this dimension of being human is extinguished,
it takes with it the necessary energies, practices, and culture of democracy, as well as its very
intelligibility. ..."
"... For most Marxists, neoliberalism emerges in the 1970s in response to capitalism's falling
rate of profit; the shift of global economic gravity to OPEC, Asia, and other sites outside the
West; and the dilution of class power generated by unions, redistributive welfare states, large
and lazy corporations, and the expectations generated by educated democracies. From this perspective,
neoliberalism is simply capitalism on steroids: a state and IMF-backed consolidation of class
power aimed at releasing capital from regulatory and national constraints, and defanging all forms
of popular solidarities, especially labor. ..."
"... The grains of truth in this analysis don't get at the fundamental transformation of social,
cultural, and individual life brought about by neoliberal reason. They don't get at the ways that
public institutions and services have not merely been outsourced but thoroughly recast as private
goods for individual investment or consumption. And they don't get at the wholesale remaking of
workplaces, schools, social life, and individuals. For that story, one has to track the dissemination
of neoliberal economization through neoliberalism as a governing form of reason, not just a power
grab by capital. There are many vehicles of this dissemination -- law, culture, and above all,
the novel political-administrative form we have come to call governance. It is through governance
practices that business models and metrics come to irrigate every crevice of society, circulating
from investment banks to schools, from corporations to universities, from public agencies to the
individual. It is through the replacement of democratic terms of law, participation, and justice
with idioms of benchmarks, objectives, and buy-ins that governance dismantles democratic life
while appearing only to instill it with "best practices." ..."
"... Progressives generally disparage Citizens United for having flooded the American electoral
process with corporate money on the basis of tortured First Amendment reasoning that treats corporations
as persons. However, a careful reading of the majority decision also reveals precisely the thoroughgoing
economization of the terms and practices of democracy we have been talking about. In the majority
opinion, electoral campaigns are cast as "political marketplaces," just as ideas are cast as freely
circulating in a market where the only potential interference arises from restrictions on producers
and consumers of ideas-who may speak and who may listen or judge. Thus, Justice Kennedy's insistence
on the fundamental neoliberal principle that these marketplaces should be unregulated paves the
way for overturning a century of campaign finance law aimed at modestly restricting the power
of money in politics. Moreover, in the decision, political speech itself is rendered as a kind
of capital right, functioning largely to advance the position of its bearer, whether that bearer
is human capital, corporate capital, or finance capital. This understanding of political speech
replaces the idea of democratic political speech as a vital (if potentially monopolizable and
corruptible) medium for public deliberation and persuasion. ..."
"... My point was that democracy is really reduced to a whisper in the Euro-Atlantic nations
today. Even Alan Greenspan says that elections don't much matter much because, "thanks to globalization
. . . the world is governed by market forces," not elected representatives. ..."
anne -> im1dc... ,
Define "neoliberal":
Neoliberal means let there be markets everywhere and let governments leave markets alone. There
is no other word of definition needed.
This is wrong. You completely misunderstand the role of government under neoliberalism. Under
neoliberalism it is the government that impose markets on people via deregulation. Impose "from
above" like socialism in socialist states. So it is the government that is an instrument for "imposition
of markets everywhere". And, if necessary, by brute force.
Unlike libertarian ideology, under neoliberalism the government is not passive, it is an active
player which forcefully "opens markets" everywhere.
In foreign countries this takes the form of neocolonialism, and color revolutions or direct
military intervention are typical tool for bending "not so democratic as we would like" countries,
especially with oil or other valuable deposits. In this sense, it is very similar to Islamic fundamentalism
and can be called "market fundamentalism."
In other words this more vicious ideology then just promotion of "markets" as in "socialism
for the rich and feudalism or plantation slavery for the poor"
Obama basically decided against marketing his healthcare plan. In February, 2009 the Obama campaign
contacted campaign workers and asked them to convene neighborhood groups to make suggestions for
the plan. My wife and eye convened such a group. We believed it was to be part of a national grass
roots push to overwhelm the naysayers.
We sent in the neighborhood's suggestions. We were told they would get back to us. They never
did. Grassroots organizing was eliminated. There was no grassroots push. Obama hardly marketed
his plan, letting Republicans define it for him.
Much of it still applies today, but Democrats are clueless...they fear their big donors would
revolt if they actually stated what the American people want and need.
Steve Beshear who was the Democratic Kentucky Governor who did a great job of implementing Obamacare
for his state was asked about the stances of his state's two Senators. He really laid in McConnell
which was no surprise. His comment re Rand Paul? Senator Paul wants to take our nation back to
the 18th century.
Please...
Susan Collins is just as bad as the rest of them.
Her carefully crafted public image is all show.
GOP moderates always cave because they are not moderates, they just play to the tastes of their
purple states
The GOP will throw a few crumbs, make a big show about the "moderates" improving the bill and
then they will be free to vote for it.
Trump, ever the con artist will sell it as Trump steak
Oh, BS. That the party is corrupt was made evident to anyone who watched Bubba sign away Glass-Steagall,
just in time for Hillary to announce her run for Senator from New York/Wall Street. Of course,
Bubba insists that there was no quid quo pro. Those who believe him would be good customers for
buying the Brooklyn Bridge...
Bad enough that the Republican Senate bill would repeal much of the Affordable Care Act.
Even worse, it unravels the Medicaid Act of 1965 – which, even before Obamacare, provided health
insurance to millions of poor households and elderly.
It's done with a sleight-of-hand intended to elude not only the public but also the Congressional
Budget Office.
Here's how the Senate Republican bill does it. The bill sets a per-person cap on Medicaid spending
in each state. That cap looks innocent enough because it rises every year with inflation.
But there's a catch. Starting 8 years from now, in 2025, the Senate bill switches its measure
of inflation – from how rapidly medical costs are rising, to how rapidly overall costs in the
economy are rising.
Yet medical costs are rising faster than overall costs. They'll almost surely continue to do
so – as America's elderly population grows, and as new medical devices, technologies, and drugs
prolong life.
Which means that after 2025, Medicaid will cover less and less of the costs of health care
for the poor and elderly.
Over time, that gap becomes huge. The nonpartisan Urban Institute estimates that just between
2025 and 2035, about $467 billion less will be spent on Medicaid than would be spent than if Medicaid
funding were to keep up with the expected rise in medical costs.
So millions of Americans will lose the Medicaid coverage they would have received under the
1965 Medicaid act. Over the long term, Medicaid will unravel.
Will anyone in future years know Medicaid's unraveling began with this Senate Republican bill
ostensibly designed to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act? Probably not. The unraveling
will occur gradually.
Will future voters hold Republicans responsible? Again, unlikely. The effects of the unraveling
won't become noticeable until most current Republican senators are long past reelection.
Does anyone now know this time bomb is buried in this bill?
It doesn't seem so. McConnell won't even hold hearings on it.
Next week the Congressional Budget Office will publish its analysis of the bill. CBO reports
on major bills like this are widely disseminated in the media. The CBO's belated conclusion that
the House's bill to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act would cause 23 million Americans
to lose their health care prompted even Donald Trump to call it "mean, mean, mean."
But because the CBO's estimates of the consequences of bills are typically limited to 10 years
(in this case, 2018 to 2028), the CBO's analysis of the Senate Republican bill will dramatically
underestimate how many people will be knocked off Medicaid over the long term.
Which is exactly what Mitch McConnell has planned. This way, the public won't be tipped off
to the Medicaid unraveling hidden inside the bill.
For years, Republicans have been looking for ways to undermine America's three core social
insurance programs – Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security. The three constitute the major legacies
of the Democrats, of Franklin D. Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson. All continue to be immensely popular.
Now, McConnell and his Senate Republican colleagues think they've found a way to unravel Medicaid
without anyone noticing.
Playing Games with Drugs at the Wall Street Journal
A column * in the Wall Street Journal by Dana P. Goldman
and Darius N. Lakdawalla presents a case for high drug prices
by making an analogy to the salaries of major league baseball
players. They ask what would happen if the average pay of
major league players was cut from $4 million to $2 million.
They hypothesize that the current crew of major leaguers
would continue to play, but that young people might instead
opt for different careers, leaving us with a less talented
group of baseball players. Their analogy to the drug market
is that we would see fewer drugs developed, and therefore we
would end up worse off as a result of paying less for drugs.
This analogy is useful because it is a great way to
demonstrate some serious wrong-headed thinking. It also leads
those of us who had the privilege of seeing players like Bob
Gibson, Sandy Koufax, Henry Aaron, and Willie Mays in their
primes to wonder if there somehow would have been better
players 50 years ago if the pay back then was at current
levels.
But the issue is not just how much we should for
developing drugs, but how we should pay. Suppose that we paid
fire fighters at the point where they came to the fire. They
would assess the situation and make an offer to put out the
fire and save the lives of those who are endangered. We could
haggle if we want. Sometimes we might get the price down a
bit and in some occasions a competing crew of firefighters
may show up and offer some competition. Most of us would
probably pay whatever the firefighters asked to rescue our
family members.
This could lead to a situation where firefighters are very
highly paid, since at least the ones who came to rich
neighborhoods could count on payouts in the millions or even
tens of millions of dollars. Suppose someone suggested that
we were paying too much for firefighters' services and argued
that there we could drastically reduce what we pay for a
service we all recognize as tremendously important. Well,
Goldman and Lakdawalla would undoubtedly respond with a Wall
Street Journal column telling us that fewer people will want
to be firefighters.
But this is really beside the point. Just about everyone
agrees that it does not make sense to be determining
firefighters' pay when they show up at the fire. We pay them
a fixed salary. While they sit around waiting most of the
time, occasionally they provide an incredibly valuable
service saving valuable properties from destruction or even
more importantly saving lives.
No one thinks that firefighters get ripped off because
they don't walk away millions of dollars when they save an
endangered family. They get paid their salary (which we can
argue whether too high or too low) for work that we recognize
as dangerous, but which will occasionally result in enormous
benefits to society.
In the case of developing drugs, we are now largely in the
situation of paying the firefighters when they show up at the
burning house. As a result of historical accident, we rely on
a relic of the medieval guild system, government granted
patent monopolies, to finance most research into developing
new drugs. These monopolies allow drug companies to charge
prices that are several thousand percent ** above the free
market price.
This leads to all the corruption and distortion that one
would expect from a trade tariff of 1000 or even 10,000
percent. These markups lead drug companies to expend vast
resources marketing their drugs. They also frequently
misrepresent the safety and effectiveness of their drugs to
maximize sales. They make payoffs to doctors, politicians,
and academics to enlist them in their sales efforts. And,
they use the legal system to harass potential competitors,
often filing frivolous suits to dissuade generic competitors.
This system also leads to a large amount of wasted
research spending. This is in part because competitors will
try to innovate around a patent to share in the patent rents.
In a world of patent monopolies it is generally desirable to
have competing drugs, however if the first drug was selling
at its free market price, it is unlikely that it would make
sense to spend large amounts researching the development of a
second, third, and fourth drug for a condition for which an
effective treatment already exists, rather than researching
drugs for conditions for which no effective treatment exists.
Patent monopolies also encourage secrecy in research, as
drug companies disclose as little information as possible so
that they prevent competitors from benefiting from their
research. This also slows the research process.
The obvious alternative would upfront funding, just like
firefighters are paid a fixed salary for their work. Under
this system a condition of the funding would be that all the
research findings are posted on the web as quickly as
practical to maximize the ability of the scientific community
to benefit. We already do this to some extent with the $32
billion a year that goes to the National Institutes of
Health, although this amount would likely have to be doubled
or even tripled to make up for the research currently
supported by government granted patent monopolies. (I outline
a system for this in my book "Rigged: How Globalization and
the Rules of the Modern Economy Have Been Structured to Make
the Rich Richer" *** - it's free.)
Anyhow, it would be good if we could be having a debate
about how we finance drug research rather than just telling
silly stories about baseball players salaries. Bernie
Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Al Franken, Sherrod Brown and
thirteen other senators have already introduced a bill that
would have the government pick up the tab on some clinical
trials and then putting the rights to successful drugs in the
public domain so they can be sold at generic prices. The bill
also has a patent buyout fund that would accomplish the same
goal.
It is absurd that we charge people hundreds of thousands
of dollars for life-saving drugs that cost a few hundred
dollars to produce. Too bad the Wall Street Journal has so
little creativity that it cannot even imagine an alternative
to a grossly antiquated institution when it comes to
financing prescription drug development.
Also historically moronic,
since China had become increasingly isolationist from the 16th century on. This is not to
say that China has not been deliberately annoying their neighbors lately, especially in the
South China Sea, however. Clearly China has been extending its influence, mostly
economically, around the world, especially in Africa, for a couple of decades now, but I do
not see this as any different from what we do in the same regions. It is certainly not
nearly as troubling as what Russia has been doing under Putin.
In Final Oliver Stone Interview, Putin Predicts When Russia-US Crisis Ends
Jun 20, 2017 | www.forbes.com
But with Trump in the White House, the Trump-Putin conspiracy theory is one reality TV
show the news media can't shake. Stone's love for foreign policy intrigue at least makes
him a Putin kindred spirit here. America's age old fear of the Russians, has made Putin
public enemy number one and Stone his sounding board. For some unhappy campers, like John
McCain, Putin has " no moral equivalent " in the United States. He's a dictator , a war
criminal and tyrant .
"You've gone through four U.S. presidents: Clinton, Bush, Obama and now Trump. What
changes?" Stone asks him.
"Almost nothing. Your bureaucracy is very strong and it is that bureaucracy that rules
the world," he says. Then, solemnly, "There is change...when they bring us to the cemetery
to bury us."
In the last installment of the Putin interviews, the Russian leader admitted to liking
Trump. "We still like him because he wants to restore relations. Relations between the two
countries are going to develop," he said. It's a sentence very few in congress would say,
and almost no big name politicians outside of Trump would imagine saying on television. On
Russia, you scold. There is no fig leaf.
In a recent sanctions bill in the senate, only Republicans Rand Paul and Mike Lee voted
against it, making for a 97-2 landslide in favor of extra-territorial sanctions against
Russian companies, namely oil and gas.
Stone asked him why did he bother hacking the Democratic National Committee's emails if
he believed nothing would change on the foreign policy front.
STONE: Our political leadership and NATO all believe you hacked the election.
PUTIN: We didn't hack the election at all. It would be hard to imagine any country, even
Russia, being capable of seriously influencing the U.S. election. Someone hacked the DNC,
but I don't think it influenced the election. What came through was not a lie.
They were not trying to fool anybody. People who want to manipulate public opinion will
blame Russia. But Trump had his finger on the pulse of the Midwest voter and knew how to
pull at their hearts. Those who have been defeated shouldn't be shifting blame to someone
else....We are not waiting for any revolutionary changes.
Just then, editors cut to a video of Trump talking about Putin.
TRUMP: I hope I get along with Putin. I hope I do. But there is a good chance that I
won't.
PUTIN: It almost feels like hatred of a certain ethnic group, like antisemitism. They
are always blaming Russians, like antisemites are always blaming the Jews.
The editors then flashed to footage of John McCain on the floor of the Senate ranting
and raving about Putin. Then Joseph Biden in the Ukrainian parliament, ranting about
Russia. Putin tells Stone all of this is unfortunate. He thinks their view is"old world."
He reminds Stone that Russia and the U.S. were allies in World War I and World War II. It
was Winston Churchill that started the Cold War from London, despite having respect for
Russia's strongman leader at the time, the real dictator, Joseph Stalin.
"It is critically important to bring this debate into the open. For too long, climate advocacy
and policy has been inflected by a hope that the energy transformation before us can be achieved
cheaply and virtuously - in harmony with nature. But the transformation is likely to be costly.
And though sun, wind and water are likely to account for a much larger share of the nation's energy
supply, less palatable technologies are also likely to play a part."
Eduardo Porter on the debate as to whether 100% of our energy needs can be met by renewables.
OK - it may involve certain costs increasing this from a mere 10% to something closer to 100%
even if we do not entirely get to 100%. But not trying would be very costly.
One thing that certainly annoys me about this, is that to me the incentives must be wrong.
I see the German railway building solar banks on perfectly good land (which could for instance
grow trees), and the railways rolling past large numbers of houses with south-facing roofs and
no solar panels.
I see electric cars being built without solar panels on the roof, parked in the sun. I sort
of wonder - something is wrong here, why?
I read in the scientific American that people are thinking of locating solar panels to provide
shade to irrigation canals. Or we could use solar panels to provide weather protection to bike
lanes (shade + rain + snow protection). There are so many two-fers out there - why are we missing
all these opportunities?
Think of another possibility (a sliding solar on the roof of an electric car - so it could provide
windscreen shade when parked and have extra collecting area as well).
Ok, ok it is summer and 34 degrees C here today, so solar energy is everywhere.
One thing that certainly annoys me about this, is that to me the incentives must be wrong.
I see the german railway building solar banks on perfectly good land (which could for
instance grow trees), and the railways rolling past large numbers of houses with south-facing
roofs and no solar panels.
I see electric cars being built without solar panels on the roof, parked in the sun.
I sort of wonder - something is wrong here, why?
I read in the scientific American that people are thinking of locating solar panels to
provide shade to irrigation canals. Or we could use solar panels to provide weather protection
to bike lanes (shade + rain + snow protection). There are so many two-fers out there - why
are we missing all these opportunities?
We Are Inches From A New World War, And Clintonists Are To Blame
Published June 20, 2017 by Caitlin Johnstone
"This is your fault, Clinton Democrats. You created this, and if our species is plunged into
a new world war or extinction via nuclear holocaust, it will be your fault. You knuckle-dragging,
vagina hat-wearing McCarthyite morons made this happen."
Five takeaways from Iran's missile strike in Syria
Tehran's strike was targeted at Islamic State but it also puts US bases in the region on notice
and exposes the flimsiness of the Trump Administration's Middle East policy
........................
From all accounts, the missiles hit their target with devastating precision. Simply put, Iran
has notified the US that its 45,000 troops deployed in bases in Iraq (5,165), Kuwait (15,000),
Bahrain (7,000), Qatar (10,000), the UAE (5,000) and Oman (200) are highly vulnerable.
Hell truck bombs aimed at marine barracks aren't any longer on Iran's to do list . Even thru
their junior partners Hezbollah
Assad might want them to clobber a syrian Kurd stronghold. But not even that gets the green light
by the mad mullahs of Teheran
Uncle is the clear aggressor against Iran. Just as he is against Venezuela. The Shia Arabs are
a strategic target for uncles containment horse play. Iran is their steadfast ally
The Wahhabi coalition funded, armed and equipped by Uncle Sam killed 300 women and children last
month in its quest to use ISIS as an excuse to give Syria and upper Iraq to al Qaeda.
It also shot down a Syria jet trying to push US' jihadis who are making Turley mad back toward
ISIS to fight them rather than occuoy Syria.
The Syrian government is pushing against the Israeli supported branch of al Qaeda in the Daraa
governate. Israelis interest is the Golan which it grabbed in 1973.
While in al Tanf, Syria in the middle of no where related to fighting ISIS US F-15E shot down
an armed drone allegedly attacking the US run training center for future jihadis who will go after
the US and Europe like bin Laden. All the conditions for US tied down supporting evil like 1964..........
I like johnstone. She wrote a lot on Serbia v croatia. And then Bosnia Kosovo. The national elements
of deliquescent Yugoslavia. That former hot spot of humanist outrage. But keep your pants on girl
Nothing anywhere now threatens catastrophic collisions between great powers. Uncles just too
strong
The legacy of Sarajevo and the East German armor US facilitated to Croatia is the US maintains
an oversized "NATO" mechanized brigade plus extras in Camp Bonesteel......
Keeping dissected Kosovo county free unlike Iraq......
not really, it is less. risky to do Vietnams..... Syria has the potential to make Vietnam
type counter insurgency experiments look new again. Until US runs out of lenders!
There is probably a silver lining in the alliance of neocons and liberal interventionists (which
actually are the same as DemoRats -- Clinton's wing of Democratic party) attempt to impeach Trump
on faked charges.
It might delay the war. Looks like Trump is hell bent to crush Iran.
Which is a theocratic state, but still not as bad as KAS and some other US allies in the region.
" This pattern suggests that existence of unions, one way or another, may be less important for
economic outcomes than the way in which those unions function. "
This is a typical neoliberal Newspeak. Pretty Orwellian.
In reality atomization of workforce and decimation of unions is the explicit goal of neoliberal
state.
Neoliberalism war on organized labor started with Reagan.
Neoliberalism is based on unconditional domination of labor by capital ("socialism for rich,
feudalism for labor").
American scholar and cultural critic Henry Giroux alleges neoliberalism holds that market forces
should organize every facet of society, including economic and social life, and promotes a social
Darwinist ethic which elevates self-interest over social needs.
That means maintaining the unemployment level of sufficiently high level and political suppression
of workers rights to organize.
A new class of workers, facing acute socio-economic insecurity, emerged under neoliberalism.
It is called 'precariat'.
Neoliberal policies led to the situation in the US economy in which 30% of workers earn low
wages (less than two-thirds the median wage for full-time workers), and 35% of the labor force
is underemployed; only 40% of the working-age population in the U.S. is adequately employed.
The Center for Economic Policy Research's (CEPR) Dean Baker (2006) argued that the driving
force behind rising inequality in the US has been a series of deliberate, neoliberal policy choices
including anti-inflationary bias, anti-unionism, and profiteering in the health industry.
Amazon, Uber and several other companies have shown that neoliberal model can be as brutal
as plantation slavery.
Central to the notion of the skills agenda as pursued by neoliberal governments is the concept
of "human capital."
Which involves atomization of workers, each of which became a "good" sold at the "labor market".
Neoliberalism discard the concept of human solidarity. It also eliminated government support of
organized labor, and decimated unions.
Under neoliberalism the government has to actively intervene to clear the way for the free
"labor market." Talk about government-sponsored redistribution of wealth under neoliberalism --
from Greenspan to Bernanke, from Rubin to Paulson, the government has been a veritable Robin Hood
in reverse.
The New York Times steps up its anti-Russia campaign
21/06/2017
The CIA's principal house organ, the New York Times, published a lead editorial Sunday on the investigation into alleged Russian
meddling in the 2016 US presidential election that is an incendiary and lying exercise in disinformation aimed at whipping up
support for war with Russia.
....................
Not a single one of the reports in the Times or Post is the product of a genuine investigation by journalists. Instead, the
main reporting on the "Russian hacking" affair consists of taking dictation from unidentified intelligence officials. In not a
single case did these officials offer evidence to substantiate their claims, invariably made in the form of ambiguous phrases
like "we assess," "we believe," "we assess with high confidence," etc. Such claims are worth no more than previous assertions
that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction-a lie used to justify a war that has killed more than one million people.
Bernie Sanders and Rand Paul Buck Party Consensus on Russia and Iran Sanctions
Investigative journalist Max Blumenthal explains that these sanctions punish Russia and Iran and unnecessarily intensifies the
conflict between the US and these countries
WASHINGTON, June 15 – Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) issued the following statement Thursday after he voted against a bill that
would impose new sanctions on Iran and Russia:
"I am strongly supportive of the sanctions on Russia included in this bill. It is unacceptable for Russia to interfere in our
elections here in the United States, or anywhere around the world. There must be consequences for such actions. I also have deep
concerns about the policies and activities of the Iranian government, especially their support for the brutal Assad regime in
Syria. I have voted for sanctions on Iran in the past, and I believe sanctions were an important tool for bringing Iran to the
negotiating table. But I believe that these new sanctions could endanger the very important nuclear agreement that was signed
between the United States, its partners and Iran in 2015. That is not a risk worth taking, particularly at a time of heightened
tension between Iran and Saudi Arabia and its allies. I think the United States must play a more even-handed role in the Middle
East, and find ways to address not only Iran's activities, but also Saudi Arabia's decades-long support for radical extremism."
A rival foreign power launched an aggressive cyberattack on the United States, interfering with the 2016 presidential election
and leaving every indication that it's coming back for more - but President Trump doesn't seem to care.
The unprecedented nature of Russia's attack is getting lost in the swirling chaos of recent weeks, but it shouldn't be. American
intelligence agencies have concluded that Russia took direct aim at the integrity of American democracy, and yet after almost
five months in office, the commander in chief appears unconcerned with that threat to our national security. The only aspect of
the Russia story that attracts his attention is the threat it poses to the perceived legitimacy of his electoral win.
If not for the continuing investigation into possible collusion between the Trump campaign and the Russians - and whether Mr.
Trump himself has obstructed that investigation - the president's indifference would be front-page news.
So let's take a moment to recall the sheer scope and audacity of the Russian efforts.
Under direct orders from President Vladimir Putin, hackers connected to Russian military intelligence broke into the email
accounts of...
Why critique this campaign against Russia
As if the kremlin may to have interfered and even collaborated with trump operatives to do it
Anything less would be dereliction of duty by a great powers leadership
Point out the motivation
Which is indeed a new forward policy on Russian containment by the deep state
As we now call the corporate planted cultivated and coddled security apparatus
With its various media cut thrus cut outs and compadres
Yes the NYT and the WP
Both are working with the deep state
Once called the invisible government
Much as they have in he past
Why I like he color revolution analogy
These media titans are working with the DS
Because they want to topple trump like they wanted to topple Nixon
And to a lesser extent wobble Reagan
It would have been appeasement for Putin to stand by and let the Hillary neocon take over America and offer the last drop of US
soldiers' blood to the Balts.
Ignoring Clinton was like letting Hitler have Prague!
Important, incisive perspective or argument, but a direction seldom taken. A Cold War sort of atmosphere makes us wary of using
any such argument, and we have been forming a Cold War environment for several years now. This atmosphere by the way involves
the way in which China is generally regarded, and I believe colors economic analysis even among academics.
"... The Aluminium cladding on the Grenfell Tower had oxygen all the way round it was mounted with an air gap and a flammable polystyrene inner. The cladding is under the windows that can be opened. Once the polystyrene is exposed, say from rupture of the aluminium coating. ..."
"... 'Like other organic compounds, polystyrene is flammable. Polystyrene is classified according to DIN4102 as a "B3" product, meaning highly flammable or "Easily Ignited." ..."
"... This is off-topic and should be in the MF Cafe. Pls take the conversation there. Thx. Mod ..."
Regarding the media presentation of the fire in London:
The Aluminium cladding on the Grenfell Tower had oxygen all the way round it was mounted with
an air gap and a flammable polystyrene inner. The cladding is under the windows that can be opened.
Once the polystyrene is exposed, say from rupture of the aluminium coating.
The expanded polystyrene core melts at 240 C so at this point the cladding loses its structural
integrity.
'Like other organic compounds, polystyrene is flammable. Polystyrene is classified according
to DIN4102 as a "B3" product, meaning highly flammable or "Easily Ignited."
As a consequence,
although it is an efficient insulator at low temperatures, its use is prohibited in any exposed
installations in building construction if the material is not flame-retardant. It must be concealed
behind drywall, sheet metal, or concrete.[citation needed]
Foamed polystyrene plastic materials
have been accidentally ignited and caused huge fires and losses, for example at the Düsseldorf
International Airport and the Channel tunnel (where polystyrene was inside a railcar that caught
fire).'
'Like all organic compounds, polystyrene burns to give carbon dioxide and water vapor.'
'In the vicinity of room temperature, the reaction between aluminum metal and water to form
aluminum hydroxide and hydrogen is the following: 2Al + 6H2O = 2Al(OH)3 + 3H2. The gravimetric
hydrogen capacity from this reaction is 3.7 wt.% and the volumetric hydrogen capacity is 46 g
H2/L.
Although this reaction is thermodynamically favorable, it does not proceed due to the presence
of a coherent and adherent layer of aluminum oxide which forms on the surface of aluminum particles
which prevents water from cominginto direct contact with the aluminum metal.
The key to inducing
and maintaining the reaction of aluminum with water near room temperature is the continual removal
and/or disruption of this coherent/adherent aluminum oxide layer. '
'In this case, the molten nature of the [aluminium] alloy prevents the development of a coherent
and adherent aluminum oxide layer. '
.
'Thus, an engineering approach might be a continuous water stream to maintain a roughly steady
state hydrogen generation rate'
'The Al/water reaction is highly exothermic with an enthalpy of reaction of about 280 kJ/mol H2
at ~50-100 C '
Aluminium has a melting point of 660 C. When the aluminium melts its protective oxide outer
layer is removed causing any steam or water such as from the burning of the polystyrene to cause
a highly exothermic reaction that releases hydrogen. This saw the rapid spread of the flames over
the skin of the building.
The firefighters adding water to areas they could not quench acted as an accelerant to the
fire once it had rose as steam and reacted with the molten aluminium.
Any iron or copper used as building material with rust or oxidation or impurities could even
cause small thermite reactions with the aluminium oxide. This exothermic reaction can be seen
on the Hindenberg disaster.
There could be a creation of higly volatile triorganoaluminium compounds:
"trimethylaluminium" has the formula Al2(CH3)6 (see figure). With large organic groups, triorganoaluminium
compounds exist as three-coordinate monomers, such as triisobutylaluminium. Such compounds are
widely used in industrial chemistry, despite the fact that they are often highly pyrophoric.'
Republicans are embarrassing Democrats by showing them how
legislation gets passed with a bare majority...when Democrats
could barely get anything done with a filibuster proof
majority!
Moral of the story? Democrats under Obama didn't
really want to get much done. Rather, they preferred to do
nothing and blame Republicans instead. Worse, now that
Republicans want to destroy what precious little Democrats
managed to accomplish, Democrats are just standing around,
frozen like deer in the headlights, clueless as to how to use
their 48 votes.
"Republicans are embarrassing Democrats by showing them how
legislation gets passed with a bare majority...when Democrats
could barely get anything done with a filibuster proof
majority!"
Not only that.
Neoliberal stooges like Krugman now shed crocodile tears
after pushing Sanders under the bus.
They essentially gave us Trump and now have an audacity to
complain. What a miserable hypocritical twerp this Nobel
laureate is!
Where is the DemoRats "Resistance" now? Are they fighting
against the war in Syria on behave of Israel and Gulf states?
Protesting sanctions against Cuba? Complaining about the
record arms sale with Saudi Arabia (with its possible 9/11
links ?)
No, they are all on MSNBC or CNN dragging out a stupid
investigation all the while pushing Russia to war. And
congratulating themselves with the latest Russian sanctions
designed to block supplies of Russian gas to Western
Europe...
I want to repeat this again: Neoliberal Democrats created
Trump and brought him to the victory in the recent
Presidential elections.
"... The argument for a higher inflation target is NOT straightforward, once you understand two
things. First interest theory is axiomatically false.#1 Because of this monetary policy never had sound
scientific foundations. Second the same holds for fiscal policy.#2 ..."
"... The argument AGAINST higher inflation is that it REDUCES employment. Given the overall situation,
the ONLY sensible policy is to increase the average wage rate, such that the rate of change of the wage
rate is greater than the rate of change of productivity, because this increases employment. This is
a SYSTEMIC necessity and has NOTHING to do with social policy. Employment is co-determined by the relationship
between average wage rate, price and productivity. This relationship should automatically produce full
employment but does not. ..."
Economic bungee jumping without cord: Comment on Simon Wren-Lewis on 'Raising the inflation target'
You say: "The argument for a higher inflation target is straightforward, once you understand
two things. First the most effective and reliable monetary policy instrument is to influence the
real interest rate in the economy, which is the nominal interest rate less expected inflation.
Second nominal short term interest rates have a floor near zero (the Zero Lower Bound, or ZLB)."
The argument for a higher inflation target is NOT straightforward, once you understand
two things. First interest theory is axiomatically false.#1 Because of this monetary policy never
had sound scientific foundations. Second the same holds for fiscal policy.#2
Let us assume for a moment that, for whatever reasons, neither monetary nor fiscal policy is
applicable. So, given investment expenditures of the business sector and the expenditure ratio
of the household sector, the only alternative left is to directly influence the macroeconomic
price mechanism.#3
The argument AGAINST higher inflation is that it REDUCES employment. Given the overall
situation, the ONLY sensible policy is to increase the average wage rate, such that the rate of
change of the wage rate is greater than the rate of change of productivity, because this increases
employment. This is a SYSTEMIC necessity and has NOTHING to do with social policy. Employment
is co-determined by the relationship between average wage rate, price and productivity. This relationship
should automatically produce full employment but does not.
Standard employment theory is false.#4 The proposal to get the economy going by increasing
price inflation is the direct result of the complete lack of understanding how the market economy
works.
The Amazon-Walmart Showdown That
Explains the Modern
Economy
https://nyti.ms/2sxhIkx
via @UpshotNYT
NYT - Neil Irwin - June 16
With Amazon buying the high-end grocery chain Whole Foods,
something retail analysts have known for years is now
apparent to everyone: The online retailer is on a collision
course with Walmart to try to be the predominant seller of
pretty much everything you buy.
Each one is trying to become more like the other - Walmart
by investing heavily in its technology, Amazon by opening
physical bookstores and now buying physical supermarkets. But
this is more than a battle between two business titans. Their
rivalry sheds light on the shifting economics of nearly every
major industry, replete with winner-take-all effects and huge
advantages that accrue to the biggest and best-run
organizations, to the detriment of upstarts and second-fiddle
players.
That in turn has been a boon for consumers but also has
more worrying implications for jobs, wages and inequality.
To understand this epic shift, you can look not just to
the grocery business, but also to my closet, and to another
retail acquisition announced Friday morning. ...
Amazon's business model is to become the dominant
intermediary between producers and consumers.
Whole Foods
positions it to ideally serve this role in every local market
in America...one stop shopping, whether you're buying from
China or from the local Chinatown.
When a company like Amazon is capturing market share,
profits don't matter, as its stock price shows.
And Bezos ownerships of the Washington Post gives him a
powerful bully pulpit against anyone with thoughts about
anti-trust...that and his deep pockets.
I wouldn't call it confidence. Any line or mode of business
can be grown only to a certain size. At some point S-curve
effects and scale complexity lead to diminishing returns,
even if the business is managed as well as it can be. Also in
some cases there may simply not be enough demand for the one
or few things the company does.
Then companies have to
branch out into other ways of business, typically outside
their current activities. Sometimes there is synergy,
sometimes not, and it's just about buying market and revenue
with the imagination one can manage it better to a higher
rate of profit.
The Fed should initiate a campaign: 'Patriotism is paying
your workers more."
It worked for Henry Ford. And it
would work to restore robust economic growth.
Strangely,
most economists want to REDUCE workers' purchasing power,
which makes sense for individual firms but is bad for the
economy as a whole.
Henry Ford - progressive? Seriously? He did this in order to
get workers to put in more effort. In other words - good for
the bottom line. Something call efficiency wages. We would
provide you with a reading list but we know you would not
actually read any of it. You never do.
dean baker once pointed out that fiscal policy is problematic
if it is just going to be reversed by monetary policy
monetary policy focuses on not having unemployment levels get
lower than nairu,
and thus no matter what the fiscal interventions, we can
never get unemployment below a certain level
believing that nairu is some "natural phenomenon" that is
where the universe will always tend to
puts monetary policy, otherwise theoretically sound, in
the way of achieving true full employment
not helping achieve it
so you don't just need fiscal, you need policies that work
on the actual value of nairu and the amount of inflation that
occurs when unemployment is low than nairu
apparently this guy William vickery has a lot of ideas on
how to accomplish that
This is he answer to market power of firms
Old man Galbraith wanted the state
to administer the prices of the oligoplistic corporate core
of the economy
How can something as simple as inflation be so difficult
to solve? If inflation were simply a matter of "too much
money chasing too few goods," then one would expect that the
government could control the money supply and consequently
control the inflation. The government has failed to act in
this way and unless one subscribes to a sadistic theory of
government, its failure suggests that there are non-monetary
or "real` causes embedded in our political and economic
institutions.
This study provides some insight into the nature of those
real causes, and develops a strategy to combat inflation.
Part of that strategy includes monetary restraint; however.
to be politically acceptable, monetary restraint must be made
more efficient. Some method must be developed to translate
quickly a decrease in the growth of the money supply into a
decrease in the price level, not into a decrease in
employment and output.
The method suggested by this report is an incentive based
incomes policy or incentive anti-inflation plan. These
policies minimize government intervention in the market
economy while channeling restrictive monetary policy into
anti-inflation incentives rather than into anti-production
incentives. They provide the necessary supply side incentives
to stop inflation.
Incentive anti-inflation plans take various forms. Many of
the arguments for and against such policies have incorrectly
interpreted the methodology and goals of these policies.
Specifically, these policies are not designed to solve
inflation by themselves, but instead must function as
complements to, rather than substitutes for, the appropriate
monetary and fiscal policy. These proposals are not meant to
replace the market with government regulation; they recognize
the market's advantages and use market incentives to check
inflation programs as strong as, and no stronger than, the
pressures for inflation.
To function properly, incentive anti-inflation plans must
be supported by an effective legal structure, an enforcement
mechanism and a general public acceptance that the plans are
fair. These are difficult requirements but all markets need
these foundations. There is a fundamental difference between
the government's role in establishing a legal framework and
its role in directly regulating market decisions.
Anti-inflation incentive plans require only the former....
"If inflation were simply a matter of "too much money chasing
too few goods," then one would expect that the government
could control the money supply and consequently control the
inflation"
first off, they should NOT be looking at it as
money supply paying for the goods
they should be looking at it as income paying for the
goods
Ford paid workers more to be able to squeeze more assembly
line output from them with limited risk of turnover, as
leaving for another job would mean a pay cut. He also had
ideas about intervening in their home lives.
The outsider Sunni insurgency looks like Yemen 1963 as the
Saudi terror sponsors are backed into the corner.
The Wahhabis, and Trump pursuing Obama's plot, in Riyadh
are supporting radical Sunnis not blushing at their al Qaeda
links.
Opposing the Wahhabis are Russia an ally to a loose
confederation of legitimate government, moderated radicals,
and minorities whom would be cut off by the Sunnis, as
playing Nasser/Egypt in Yemen.
Doha's sin against Wahhab is criticizing the Sunni
demolition of Arab Spring and Egypt's military dictatorship.
While as in 1964 the Wahhabis are on the same pole as
Israel.
Given 37 years of US blundering in the Persian Gulf and
Indian Ocean region, China don't need to worry if the
dominant power [and its pentagon trough filler] were to
decide to get violent.
I read a lot of "Thucydides Trap"
type fiction emanating from novelists purporting to "analyze"
aspects of US foreign policy issues.
Fiction many deliberate obfuscations and cherry picked
evidence.
I now read such tracts to sharpen my skill at observing
and naming types of logical fallacy.
Case studies, the world is not in the image of the HBS
universe.
There are problems in the world, and they suggest Einstein's
observation:
to the effect: "you cannot solve problems with
the mind that created them".
The hegemon is misguided on many levels: errant goals,
strategies (cannot be good if goals wrong), and expensive
tactics which goatherd can defeat. Worse the allies kept.
Weyrich first aired his conception of Cultural Marxism in a 1998 speech to the
Civitas Institute's
Conservative
Leadership Conference , later repeating this usage in his widely syndicated
Culture War
Letter . [64]
[66]
[67]
At Weyrich's request William S. Lind wrote a short history of his conception of Cultural
Marxism for The
Free Congress Foundation ; in it Lind identifies the presence of
homosexuals on television
as proof of Cultural Marxist control over the mass media and claims that Herbert Marcuse considered
a coalition of "blacks, students, feminist women and homosexuals" as a vanguard of cultural revolution.
[55]
[63]
[68]
Lind has since published his own depiction of a fictional Cultural Marxist apocalypse.
[69]
[70]
Lind and Weyrich's writings on this subject advocate fighting what they perceive as Cultural
Marxism with "a vibrant
cultural conservatism
" composed of "retroculture" fashions from the past, a return to rail systems as public transport
and an agrarian culture of
self-reliance modeled after the Amish
. [55]
[70]
[71] [72]
[73]
[74] [75]
[
excessive citations ] Paul Weyrich and his protégé Eric Heubeck later openly advocated
for a more direct form of "taking over political structures" by the "New Traditionalist Movement"
in his 2001 paper
The
Integration of Theory and Practice written for Weyrich's
Free Congress Foundation
.
[76] [77]
[78]
In 1999 Lind led the creation of an hour-long program entitled "Political Correctness: The
Frankfurt School" . [53]
Some of Lind's content went on to be reproduced by James Jaeger in his YouTube film
"CULTURAL MARXISM: The Corruption of America" . [79]
The intellectual historian
Martin Jay commented on this phenomenon saying that Lind's original documentary:
"... spawned a number of condensed textual versions, which were reproduced on a number of radical
right-wing sites. These in turn led to a welter of new videos now available on YouTube, which
feature an odd cast of pseudo-experts regurgitating exactly the same line. The message is numbingly
simplistic: all the ills of modern American culture, from feminism, affirmative action, sexual
liberation and gay rights to the decay of traditional education and even environmentalism are
ultimately attributable to the insidious influence of the members of the Institute for Social
Research who came to America in the 1930's." [53]
Dr. Heidi Beirich likewise claims the conspiracy theory is used to
demonize various conservative
"bêtes noires" including "feminists, homosexuals, secular humanists, multiculturalist, sex educators,
environmentalist, immigrants, and black nationalists." [80]
The Southern
Poverty Law Center has reported that William S. Lind in 2002 gave a speech to a
Holocaust denial conference
on the topic of Cultural Marxism. In this speech Lind noted that all the members of The Frankfurt
School were "to a man, Jewish", but it is reported that Lind claims not to "question whether the
Holocaust occurred" and suggests he was present in an official capacity for the
Free Congress Foundation
"to work with a wide variety of groups on an issue-by-issue basis". [84]
[85]
Adherents of the theory often seem to mean that the existence of things like modern
feminism , anti-white racism,
and sexualization are dependent
on the Frankfurt School, even though these processes and movements predate the 1920s. Although the
theory became more widespread in the late 1990s and through the 2000s, the modern iteration of the
theory originated in Michael Minnicino's 1992 essay "New Dark Age: Frankfurt School and 'Political
Correctness'", published in
Fidelio Magazine
by the Schiller
Institute . [53]
[86] [87] The Schiller Institute, a branch of the
LaRouche movement ,
further promoted the idea in 1994. [88] The Minnicino article charges that the Frankfurt School promoted
Modernism
in the arts as a form of
Cultural pessimism
, and shaped the
Counterculture
of the 1960s (such as the British pop band
The Beatles ) after the
Wandervogel of the
Ascona commune .
[86] The Larouche movement is otherwise mostly known for believing that the
British Empire still exists,
is trying to take control of the world (mostly, but not exclusively by economical means), and, among
other things, also controls the
global drug trade
. [89]
[90]
More recently, the Norwegian terrorist
Anders Behring Breivik
included the term in his document "2083: A European Declaration of Independence" , which
along with The Free
Congress Foundation 's "Political Correctness: A Short History of an Ideology" was e-mailed
to 1,003 addresses approximately 90 minutes before
the 2011 bomb blast in
Oslo for which Breivik was responsible. [91]
[92] [93]
Segments of William S. Lind's writings on Cultural Marxism have been found within Breivik's
manifesto. [94]
Philosopher and political science lecturer Jérôme Jamin has stated, "Next to the global dimension
of the Cultural Marxism conspiracy theory, there is its innovative and original dimension, which
lets its authors avoid racist discourses and pretend to be defenders of democracy". [54]
Professor and Oxford Fellow Matthew Feldman has traced the terminology back to the pre-war
German concept of Cultural
Bolshevism locating it as part of the
degeneration theory
that aided in
Hitler's rise to power . [95]
William S. Lind confirms this as his period of interest, claiming that "It [Cultural Marxism]
is an effort that goes back not to the 1960s and the hippies and the peace movement, but back to
World War I." [85]
"... Russell Brand discusses with Yanis Varoufakis what happens when you take on the political, financial and media elite, and how radical reform can occur. Through accounts of his confrontations with the IMF, European institutions and the German government they examine where true power lies and how it is wielded. ..."
"... The 'gurus' of the dominant economic system 'teach' us how economy should be treated, based on mathematical models that assume standard conditions that, essentially, do not exist in the real world. This kind of peculiar 'determinism' in economics is already considered obsolete in other scientific fields. ..."
"... Mainstream economics, dominated by the neoliberal perception, is full of assumptions that are not applicable in the real world, yet being used to justify the satisfaction of the interests of the elites. ..."
"... Almost everywhere, neoliberal policies imposed through IMF have brought unprecedented disaster. Despite the obvious failure, financial technocrats assume that all cases are similar, imposing the same recipe in every region. Their models are full of assumptions in every level and that's why the fail miserably. Yet, despite the obvious disaster, the neoliberal priesthood demands from societies to adopt its models through simple faith. ..."
Russell Brand discusses with Yanis Varoufakis what happens when you take on the political, financial
and media elite, and how radical reform can occur. Through accounts of his confrontations with the
IMF, European institutions and the German government they examine where true power lies and how it
is wielded.
In a particular part of the interview, Varoufakis explains simply why economics is not science:
I call it organized religion with equations, superstition. The only way to become free of superstition
is through overcoming. But you need to study. I've always pissed off my academic colleagues and other
economists who actually believe that is real science what they are doing.
Our mathematical models of the weather can be judged by objective reality. If I am a meteorologist
and come up with a prediction that tomorrow there is going to be a heatwave in Leicester square,
all we have to do is to wait until tomorrow to see if I'm right or wrong. The weather will either
confirm or junk my theories about it.
And by the way, this is exactly the process of how real science progress. Try – fail - come with
an improved idea, and so on. Real scientists abolish old theories even if they work well with new
ones that explain better the nature, the world, etc.
Varoufakis continues:
Let's say that I have the same kind of computer model and actual machine and data mining that
the meteorologist does, but instead of using it to predict the weather I use it to predict the stock
exchange. And suppose that I was somebody very highly respected as a predictor of stock exchange
changes and let's say that today, I were to predict that tomorrow is going to be a major crash in
the stock exchange. There might be because I predicted it! In society and in the economy, our beliefs
about the phenomenon under study are part of the phenomenon under study.
The last paragraph above depicts soundly why mainstream economics are far from the concept of
modern science. The 'gurus' of the dominant economic system 'teach' us how economy should be treated,
based on mathematical models that assume standard conditions that, essentially, do not exist in the
real world. This kind of peculiar 'determinism' in economics is already considered obsolete in other
scientific fields.
In Quantum Mechanics, for example, Heisenberg's uncertainty principle not only acknowledges that
the observer affects the final situation of a physical system but also embeds this interference mathematically.
As a consequence, the final situation of a physical system can be determined only in statistical
terms.
Mainstream economics, dominated by the neoliberal perception, is full of assumptions that are
not applicable in the real world, yet being used to justify the satisfaction of the interests of
the elites.
Almost everywhere, neoliberal policies imposed through IMF have brought unprecedented disaster.
Despite the obvious failure, financial technocrats assume that all cases are similar, imposing the
same recipe in every region. Their models are full of assumptions in every level and that's why the
fail miserably. Yet, despite the obvious disaster, the neoliberal priesthood demands from societies
to adopt its models through simple faith.
Which shows that the only and real target of the mainstream economics, is simply retain the domination
of a small elite on the top of the economic hierarchy, at the expense of the majority of the people.
"When you have a former head of the FBI, a deeply respected person"
That's funny. Can you spell 9/11. He served as President George W. Bush's deputy attorney general
(D.A.G.), in the aftermath of 9/11. So he is the the one who got Saudi officials off the hook.
Former Democratic Sen. Bob Graham, who in 2002 chaired the congressional Joint Inquiry into
9/11, maintains the FBI is covering up a Saudi support cell in Sarasota for the hijackers.
He says the al-Hijjis' "urgent" pre-9/11 exit suggests "someone may have tipped them off" about
the coming attacks.
Graham has been working with a 14-member group in Congress to urge President Obama to declassify
28 pages of the final report of his inquiry which were originally redacted, wholesale, by President
George W. Bush.
"The 28 pages primarily relate to who financed 9/11, and they point a very strong finger
at Saudi Arabia as being the principal financier," he said, adding, "I am speaking of the kingdom,"
or government, of Saudi Arabia, not just wealthy individual Saudi donors.
Sources who have read the censored Saudi section say it cites CIA and FBI case files that
directly implicate officials of the Saudi Embassy in Washington and its consulate in Los Angeles
in the attacks - which, if true, would make 9/11 not just an act of terrorism, but an act of
war by a foreign government.
– From the New York Post article: How the FBI is Whitewashing the Saudi Connection to 9/11
Was Comey's "second thought" announcement after Hillary email investigation a naked political
gambit?
And what about his very strange announcement about Wiener computer containing Hillary classified
emails?
WSJ - Del Quentin Wilber, Shane Harris and Paul Sonne - June
14, 2017
WASHINGTON-President Donald Trump's firing of former FBI
Director James Comey is now a subject of the federal probe
being headed by special counsel Robert Mueller, which has
expanded to include whether the president obstructed justice,
a person familiar with the matter said.
Mr. Mueller is examining whether the president fired Mr.
Comey as part of a broader effort to alter the direction of
the Federal Bureau of Investigation's probe into Russia's
alleged meddling in the 2016 presidential election and
whether associates of Mr. Trump colluded with Moscow, the
person said.
Mark Corallo, a spokesman for Mr. Trump's personal lawyer,
Marc Kasowitz, denounced the revelation in a statement. "The FBI leak of information regarding the president is
outrageous, inexcusable and illegal," Mr. Corallo said.
Peter Carr, a spokesman for Mr. Mueller, declined to
comment. The special counsel's pursuit of an obstruction of
justice probe was first reported Wednesday by the Washington
Post.
Mr. Mueller's team is planning to interview Director of
National Intelligence Dan Coats and National Security Agency
Director Mike Rogers as part of its examination of whether
Mr. Trump sought to obstruct justice, the person said.
The special counsel also plans to interview Rick Ledgett,
who recently retired as the deputy director of the NSA, the
person added.
While Mr. Ledgett was still in office, he wrote a memo
documenting a phone call that Mr. Rogers had with Mr. Trump,
according to people familiar with the matter. During the
call, the president questioned the veracity of the
intelligence community's judgment that Russia had interfered
with the election and tried to persuade Mr. Rogers to say
there was no evidence of collusion between his campaign and
Russian officials, they said. Russia has denied any government effort to meddle in the
U.S. election. Mr. Ledgett declined to comment, and officials
at the NSA didn't respond to a request for comment. An aide
to Mr. Coats declined to comment.
Mr. Coats and Mr. Rogers told a Senate panel June 7 that
they didn't feel pressured by Mr. Trump to intervene with Mr.
Comey or push back against allegations of possible collusion
between Mr. Trump's campaign and Russia. But the top national
security officials declined to say what, if anything, Mr.
Trump requested they do in relation to the Russia probe.
"If the special prosecutor called upon me to meet with him
to ask his questions, I said I would be willing to do that,"
Mr. Coats said June 7. Mr. Rogers said he would also be
willing to meet with the special counsel's team.
Mr. Comey told a Senate panel on June 8 that Mr. Trump
expressed "hope" in a one-on-one Oval Office meeting that the
FBI would drop its investigation into former national
security adviser Michael Flynn, who resigned under pressure
for making false statements about his conversations with a
Russian diplomat. Mr. Trump has denied making that request.
Mr. Comey said during the testimony that it was up to Mr.
Mueller to decide whether the president's actions amounted to
obstruction of justice. The former FBI director also said he
had furnished the special counsel with memos he wrote
documenting his interactions with the president on the
matter.
At a June 13 hearing at a House of Representatives panel,
Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein declined to say who
asked him to write a memo justifying Mr. Comey's firing. The
White House initially cited that memo as the reason for the
termination, and Mr. Trump later said in an NBC interview
that he also was influenced by the Russia investigation. Mr.
Rosenstein said he wasn't at liberty to discuss the matter.
"The reason for that is that if it is within the scope of
Director Mueller's investigation, and I've been a prosecutor
for 27 years, we don't want people talking publicly about the
subjects of ongoing investigations," Mr. Rosenstein said.
"Mr. Comey said during the testimony that it was up to Mr.
Mueller to decide whether the president's actions amounted to
obstruction of justice."
Comey probably lied. This was probably the plan hatched
from the very beginning of this color revolution by Comey and
other members of anti-trump conspiracy such as Brennan: to
raise Russiagate or anything else to the level which allow to
appoint special prosecutor and to sink Trump using this
mechanism, because digging by itself produces the necessary
result.
Obstruction of justice is the easiest path to remove
Trump, a no-brainer so to speak, the charge which can be used
to remove any any past and future US president with
guaranteed result.
The other, more Trump-specific, is of financial deals
within the Trump empire. Especially his son-in-law deals.
In this sense Trump is now hostage like Clinton previously
was. He can fight for survival, by unleashing some war, like
Clinton did with Yugoslavia.
Which probably is OK for neocons because war for them is
the first, the second and the third solution to any problem.
But as a result the US standing in the globe probably will
be further damaged.
BTW, in your zeal to republish this neocon propaganda, do
you understand that Hillary was a head of one of those 17
intelligence agencies in the past?
The State Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR)
has ties to the Office of Strategic Services from World War
II, but was transferred to State after the war. INR now
reports directly to the Secretary of State, harnessing
intelligence from all sources and offering independent
analysis of global events and real-time insight.
Headquarters : Washington, D.C.
Mission : This agency serves as the Secretary of State's
primary advisor on intelligence matters, and gives support to
other policymakers, ambassadors, and embassy staff.
Budget : $49 million in 2007, according to documents
obtained by FAS.
This all drama makes no sense for me. Trump folded. He
proved to be not a fighter. The attempt to bring members of
his family close to White house is a huge liability for him
now in view of possible digging of the past of his son in law
by the special Prosecutor. Who is recruiting the most rabid
Hillary hacks for the job ;-).
But the key question is what DemoRats will gain with the
current vice president elevated to the new level?
Other then a blowback from the remaining part of Trump
supporters. Pat Buchanan was talking about civil war
recently, which is probably exaggeration, but the probably
direction of reaction is probably right:
You are a typical retired "frustrated underachiever". Nothing
new here and your replies fits the pattern perfectly well.
You probably should not comment things that you have no
formal training. I do believe that you are unable to define
such terms as "neocon", "Bolshevism", "Trotskyism" and
"jingoism" without looking into the dictionary. Judging from
your comments this is above your IQ.
Of cause, such twerps as you are always lucking in
Internet forums, so you are just accepted here as the
necessary evil. But you do no belong here. No way. Neither in
economic or political discussions.
You can add nothing to the discussion. Actually your
political position is the position of a typical neocons and
as such is as close to betrayal of American Republic as one
can get. If the American people had their way, all our "Neocon
overlords" would be in federal prison or Guantanamo Bay, and
all their assets seized to pay down the heinous 20 trillion
debt their lies and wars have created. Because interests of neocons are not interests of the 300
million of US population. That's why people elected Trump
with all his warts.
It is sleazy idiots like you who get us into the current
mess. And please tell your daughters that you betrayed them
as well -- you endanger them and their children, if they have
any. Of course for retired idiots like you nuclear holocaust
does not matter. But it does matter for other people. Is it
so difficult to understand?
Agree, add JohnH and you see a disinformation team. One goal
is to undermine the credibility of this blog, so skipping
over their entries is what I recommend, unless you want to
learn fifth column techniques. Quess that is interesting, but
it is trolldpm!
The choir of losers continues to sing: 'Putin and Trump
colluded' ...just like the right wing sang that Bill Clinton
was guilty of all sorts of heinous crimes. And what did they
finally get on Bill? Monica.
They're just lone cranks. If you think they're a
disinformation team, you're paranoid. There are a lot of
crazy people out there. If you don't understand that fact you
need to get out more.
EMichael and PGL love to scold the
cranks as much as possible b/c it makes their establishment
line sound reasonable. I agree with you. I just ignore them.
At least they're keeping busy instead of harassing people
offline.
BTW, now I think Trump is probably going down. He floats idea
of firing Mueller. Mueller tells press they're investigating
Trump. Meanwhile the Republicans are passing Trumpcare. Trump
is moving to replace Yellen. So Mueller will have this list
of things Trump and his campaign did. Will Republicans vote
to remove Trump? Will it depend upon how the public reacts?
Perhaps they are just attempting to hasten the descent of the
Democratic Party establishment consensus towards its
inevitable rock bottom, the condition at which all addicts
must finally arrive before they are forced to admit that they
are the authors of their own failure and the only ones
capable of their own rescue.
"Big Ships Account for 80 Percent of Shipping's CO2"
By Paul Benecki...2017-06-13...20:16:44
"At Nor-Shipping 2017, researchers with DNV GL released a study that points to the difficulty
of reducing the industry's CO2 output below current levels. The problem is structural: big cargo
vessels emit 80 percent of shipping's greenhouse gases, but they're also the industry's most efficient
ships, and squeezing out additional improvements may be a challenge.
Just 35 percent of the fleet – mostly large bulkers, tankers and container ships – is responsible
for 80 percent of shipping's fuel consumption, according to Christos Chryssakis, DNV GL's group leader
for greener shipping. Unfortunately, these are already the fleet's most efficient vessels per ton-mile.
"This is a paradox, but if we want to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions, we actually have to improve
the best performers," Chryssakis says."...
Similar situation with trucking, but in the USA around one half of gas consumption goes into
private cars. So by improving efficiency of private fleet by 100% you can cut total consumption
only by 25%. All this talk about electrical cars like Tesla Model 3 right now is mostly cheap talk. They
by-and-large belong to the luxury segment.
"... "This legislation takes a small but important step toward eliminating the tremendous regulatory burden imposed on financial institutions One principal reason banks are unable to make loans is the bewildering array of statutory and regulatory restrictions and paperwork requirements imposed by Congress and the regulatory agencies. While a case can certainly be made that every law and regulation is intended to serve a laudable purpose, the aggregate effect of the rapidly increasing regulatory burden imposed on banks is to cause them to devote substantial time, energy and money to compliance rather than meeting the credit needs of the community." ..."
Successive Conservative governments have forced significant cuts on county/city councils who have
passed them on by reducing or stopping services. Looking at the news on Google Nudes UK we find
out that there have long been significant concerns about the fire worthiness of many council run
(though often privately managed) tower blocks and state housing. This will only be bad
for the Conservatives however they try to spin it. It's clear proof that ass-terity kills.
I came across a couple of articles in The London Economic that pointed out the last Labor government
public spending was at a record low of 37% of GDP, the lowest of any government since 1945 and
also perforating Conservative propaganda about spending. Found it:
The London Economic: Next time someone says 'Money Tree' send them this
http://www.thelondoneconomic.com/tle-pick/next-time-someone-says-money-tree-send/05/06/
This underlines Keynes point. Cut the deficit in the good times, spend money in the bad times.
Austerity doesn't work, and this was proved as Keynes economics brought the US out of the great
depression .
Well, for starters, John McCain is a moron who
argued strenuously , in the initial slide of the global financial crisis, for further banking-industry
deregulation.
"This legislation takes a small but important step toward eliminating the tremendous regulatory
burden imposed on financial institutions One principal reason banks are unable to make loans
is the bewildering array of statutory and regulatory restrictions and paperwork requirements imposed
by Congress and the regulatory agencies. While a case can certainly be made that every law and
regulation is intended to serve a laudable purpose, the aggregate effect of the rapidly increasing
regulatory burden imposed on banks is to cause them to devote substantial time, energy and money
to compliance rather than meeting the credit needs of the community."
You know, I don't believe the great majority of people are aware just what simpletons their
leaders are. We tend to think they have benefited from the very best educations – which, in the
main, they have – and that consequently they are a great deal smarter than everyone else; that's
why they're leaders. I'm sure each has a certain sector or subject in which they are unusually
bright and in which their counsel is wise and informed. But overall, they are no smarter than
you or I and every bit as prone to listen to bad advice or partisan gossip if it suits what they
already believe. Our statues have feet of clay.
Speaking of McCain, remember when he
exuberantly tweeted "Dear Vlad; the Arab Spring is coming to a neighbourhood near you"?
I liked Adajo's response, albeit it came three years later: "Dear John, let's recap: Russia
is stronger than ever, and Mr. Vlad dominates. You destroyed Ukraine for nothing."
Noah Smith has a nice summation * of his critique of macroeconomics, which mainly comes down,
as I read it, as an appeal for researchers to stay close to the ground. That's definitely good
advice for young researchers.
But what about economists trying to provide useful advice, directly or indirectly, to policy
makers, who need to make decisions based on educated guesses about the whole system? Smith says,
"go slow, allow central bankers to use judgment and simple models in the meantime." That would
be better than a lot of what academic macroeconomists do in practice, which is to castigate central
bankers and other policymakers for not using elaborate models that don't work. But is there really
no role for smart academics to help out in this process? And if so, what does this say about the
utility of what the profession does?
The thing is, those simple models have done pretty darn well since 2008 - and central bankers
who used them, like Ben Bernanke, did a lot better than central bankers like Jean-Claude Trichet
who based their judgements on something else. So surely at least part of the training of macroeconomists
should prepare them to be helpful in applying simple models, maybe even in making those simple
models better.
Reading Smith, I found myself remembering an old line ** from Robert Solow in defense of "fancy"
economic theorizing:
"In economics I like a man to have mastered the fancy theory before I trust him with simple
theory because high-powered economics seems to be such an excellent school for the skillful use
of low-powered economics."
OK, can anyone make that case about modern macroeconomics? With a straight face? In practice,
it has often seemed that expertise in high-powered macroeconomics - mainly meaning dynamic stochastic
general equilibrium - positively incapacitates its possessors from the use of low-powered macroeconomics,
largely IS-LM and its derivatives.
I don't want to make a crude functional argument here: research that advances knowledge doesn't
have to provide an immediate practical payoff. But the experience since 2008 has strongly suggested
that the research program that dominated macro for the previous generation actually impaired the
ability of economists to provide useful advice in the moment. Mastering the fancy stuff made economists
useless at the simple stuff.
A more modest program would, in part, help diminish this harm. But it would also be really
helpful if macroeconomists relearned the idea that simple aggregate models can, in fact, be useful.
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling is a branch of applied general equilibrium
theory that is influential in contemporary macroeconomics. The DSGE methodology attempts to explain
aggregate economic phenomena, such as economic growth, business cycles, and the effects of monetary
and fiscal policy, on the basis of macroeconomic models derived from microeconomic principles.
some variants include different assumptions
But common assumptions include
No banks
No nominal prices
Micro founding with a single representative agent
An infinite time horizon
A fixed inter temporal fiscal budget
Continuous market clearance
No private debt
some variants include different assumptions
But common assumptions include
No banks
No nominal prices
Micro founding with a single representative agent
An infinite time horizon
A fixed inter temporal fiscal budget
Continuous market clearance
No private debt
The IS–LM model, or Hicks–Hansen model, is a macroeconomic tool that demonstrates the relationship
between interest rates and real output, in the goods and services market and the money market
(also known as the assets market). The intersection of the "investment–saving" (IS) and "liquidity
preference–money supply" (LM) curves is the "general equilibrium" where there is simultaneous
equilibrium in both markets. Two equivalent interpretations are possible: first, the IS–LM model
explains changes in national income when the price level is fixed in the short-run; second, the
IS–LM model shows why the aggregate demand curve shifts. Hence, this tool is sometimes used not
only to analyse the fluctuations of the economy but also to find appropriate stabilisation policies.
The model was developed by John Hicks in 1937, and later extended by Alvin Hansen, as a mathematical
representation of Keynesian macroeconomic theory. Between the 1940s and mid-1970s, it was the
leading framework of macroeconomic analysis. While it has been largely absent from macroeconomic
research ever since, it is still the backbone of many introductory macroeconomics textbooks.
A number of readers, both at this blog and other places, have been asking for an explanation
of what IS-LM is all about. Fair enough – this blogosphere conversation has been an exchange among
insiders, and probably a bit baffling to normal human beings (which is why I have been labeling
my posts "wonkish").
[IS-LM stands for investment-savings, liquidity-money -- which will make a lot of sense if
you keep reading.]
So, the first thing you need to know is that there are multiple correct ways of explaining
IS-LM. That's because it's a model of several interacting markets, and you can enter from multiple
directions, any one of which is a valid starting point.
My favorite of these approaches is to think of IS-LM as a way to reconcile two seemingly incompatible
views about what determines interest rates. One view says that the interest rate is determined
by the supply of and demand for savings – the "loanable funds" approach. The other says that the
interest rate is determined by the tradeoff between bonds, which pay interest, and money, which
doesn't, but which you can use for transactions and therefore has special value due to its liquidity
– the "liquidity preference" approach. (Yes, some money-like things pay interest, but normally
not as much as less liquid assets.)
How can both views be true? Because we are at minimum talking about *two* variables, not one
– GDP as well as the interest rate. And the adjustment of GDP is what makes both loanable funds
and liquidity preference hold at the same time....
"... Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling is a branch of applied general equilibrium theory that is influential in contemporary macroeconomics. The DSGE methodology attempts to explain aggregate economic phenomena, such as economic growth, business cycles, and the effects of monetary and fiscal policy, on the basis of macroeconomic models derived from microeconomic principles. ..."
"... expertise in high-powered macroeconomics - mainly meaning dynamic stochastic general equilibrium - positively incapacitates its possessors from the use of low-powered macroeconomics, largely IS-LM and its derivatives. ..."
A number of readers, both at this blog and other places, have been asking for an explanation
of what IS-LM is all about. Fair enough – this blogosphere conversation has been an exchange among
insiders, and probably a bit baffling to normal human beings (which is why I have been labeling
my posts "wonkish").
[IS-LM stands for investment-savings, liquidity-money -- which will make a lot of sense if
you keep reading.]
So, the first thing you need to know is that there are multiple correct ways of explaining
IS-LM. That's because it's a model of several interacting markets, and you can enter from multiple
directions, any one of which is a valid starting point.
My favorite of these approaches is to think of IS-LM as a way to reconcile two seemingly incompatible
views about what determines interest rates. One view says that the interest rate is determined
by the supply of and demand for savings – the "loanable funds" approach. The other says that the
interest rate is determined by the tradeoff between bonds, which pay interest, and money, which
doesn't, but which you can use for transactions and therefore has special value due to its liquidity
– the "liquidity preference" approach. (Yes, some money-like things pay interest, but normally
not as much as less liquid assets.)
How can both views be true? Because we are at minimum talking about *two* variables, not one
– GDP as well as the interest rate. And the adjustment of GDP is what makes both loanable funds
and liquidity preference hold at the same time.
Start with the loanable funds side. Suppose that desired savings and desired investment spending
are currently equal, and that something causes the interest rate to fall. Must it rise back to
its original level? Not necessarily. An excess of desired investment over desired savings can
lead to economic expansion, which drives up income. And since some of the rise in income will
be saved – and assuming that investment demand doesn't rise by as much – a sufficiently large
rise in GDP can restore equality between desired savings and desired investment at the new interest
rate.
That means that loanable funds doesn't determine the interest rate per se; it determines a
set of possible combinations of the interest rate and GDP, with lower rates corresponding to higher
GDP. And that's the IS curve.
Meanwhile, people deciding how to allocate their wealth are making tradeoffs between money
and bonds. There's a downward-sloping demand for money – the higher the interest rate, the more
people will skimp on liquidity in favor of higher returns. Suppose temporarily that the Federal
Reserve holds the money supply fixed; in that case the interest rate must be such as to match
that demand to the quantity of money. And the Fed can move the interest rate by changing the money
supply: increase the supply of money and the interest rate must fall to induce people to hold
a larger quantity.
Here too, however, GDP must be taken into account: a higher level of GDP will mean more transactions,
and hence higher demand for money, other things equal. So higher GDP will mean that the interest
rate needed to match supply and demand for money must rise. This means that like loanable funds,
liquidity preference doesn't determine the interest rate per se; it defines a set of possible
combinations of the interest rate and GDP – the LM curve.
And that's IS-LM:
[Graph]
The point where the curves cross determines both GDP and the interest rate, and at that point
both loanable funds and liquidity preference are valid.
What use is this framework? First of all, it helps you avoid fallacies like the notion that
because savings must equal investment, government spending cannot lead to a rise in total spending
– which right away puts us above the level of argument that famous Chicago professors somehow
find convincing. And it also gets you past confusions like the notion that government deficits,
by driving up interest rates, can actually cause the economy to contract.
Most spectacularly, IS-LM turns out to be very useful for thinking about extreme conditions
like the present, in which private demand has fallen so far that the economy remains depressed
even at a zero interest rate. In that case the picture looks like this:
[Graph]
Why is the LM curve flat at zero? Because if the interest rate fell below zero, people would
just hold cash instead of bonds. At the margin, then, money is just being held as a store of value,
and changes in the money supply have no effect. This is, of course, the liquidity trap.
And IS-LM makes some predictions about what happens in the liquidity trap. Budget deficits
shift IS to the right; in the liquidity trap that has no effect on the interest rate. Increases
in the money supply do nothing at all.
That's why in early 2009, when the Wall Street Journal, the Austrians, and the other usual
suspects were screaming about soaring rates and runaway inflation, those who understood IS-LM
were predicting that interest rates would stay low and that even a tripling of the monetary base
would not be inflationary. Events since then have, as I see it, been a huge vindication for the
IS-LM types – despite some headline inflation driven by commodity prices – and a huge failure
for the soaring-rates-and-inflation crowd.
Yes, IS-LM simplifies things a lot, and can't be taken as the final word. But it has done what
good economic models are supposed to do: make sense of what we see, and make highly useful predictions
about what would happen in unusual circumstances. Economists who understand IS-LM have done vastly
better in tracking our current crisis than people who don't.
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling is a branch of applied general equilibrium
theory that is influential in contemporary macroeconomics. The DSGE methodology attempts to explain
aggregate economic phenomena, such as economic growth, business cycles, and the effects of monetary
and fiscal policy, on the basis of macroeconomic models derived from microeconomic principles.
"expertise in high-powered macroeconomics - mainly meaning dynamic stochastic general equilibrium
- positively incapacitates its possessors from the use of low-powered macroeconomics, largely
IS-LM and its derivatives."
The Shiller 10-year price-earnings ratio * is currently 29.86,
so the inverse or the earnings rate is 3.35%. The dividend yield
is 1.90%. So an expected yearly return over the coming 10 years
would be 3.35 + 1.90 or 5.25% provided the price-earnings ratio
stays the same and before investment costs.
Against the 5.25% yearly expected return on stock over the
coming 10 years, the current 10-year Treasury bond yield is 2.13%.
The risk premium for stocks is 5.25 - 2.13 or 3.12%.
Brad has a fine little logic ox calculation
This is his best side
The deflection point in his zero lower bound graph
That shows a fed helpless as the real rate climbs as the deflation rate climbs ...
and his little set of equations that generate
A run away deflation
Using a Harmless looking Taylor rule
with too low...for his logic toy system...
(2%) A target inflation rate
If
The neutral rate of the system is dwelling down around one percent
In a depressed economy, with short-term nominal interest rates
at their zero lower bound, ample cyclical unemployment, and excess capacity,
increased government purchases would be neither offset by the monetary
authority raising interest rates nor neutralized by supply-side bottlenecks.
Then even a small amount of hysteresis-even a small shadow cast on future
potential output by the cyclical downturn-means, by simple arithmetic, that
expansionary fiscal policy is likely to be self-financing. Even if it is not, it is
highly likely to pass the sensible benefit-cost test of raising the present value
of future potential output. Thus, at the zero bound, where the central bank
cannot or will not but in any event does not perform its full role in stabilization
policy, fiscal policy has the stabilization policy mission that others have
convincingly argued it lacks in normal times. Whereas many economists
have assumed that the path of potential output is invariant to even a deep
and prolonged downturn, the available evidence raises a strong fear that
hysteresis is indeed a factor. Although nothing in our analysis calls into question
the importance of sustainable fiscal policies, it strongly suggests the need
for caution regarding the pace of fiscal consolidation.
Yes yes my fellow home makers
If macro conditions are right ...
even a small Amount of hysteresis can turn the project into a self financing gig
Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy
By J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers
Abstract
In a depressed economy, with short-term nominal interest rates at their zero lower bound, ample
cyclical unemployment, and excess capacity, increased government purchases would be neither offset
by the monetary authority raising interest rates nor neutralized by supply-side bottlenecks. Then
even a small amount of hysteresis-even a small shadow cast on future potential output by the cyclical
downturn-means, by simple arithmetic, that expansionary fiscal policy is likely to be self-financing.
Even if it is not, it is highly likely to pass the sensible benefit-cost test of raising the present
value of future potential output. Thus, at the zero bound, where the central bank cannot or will
not but in any event does not perform its full role in stabilization policy, fiscal policy has
the stabilization policy mission that others have convincingly argued it lacks in normal times.
Whereas many economists have assumed that the path of potential output is invariant to even a
deep and prolonged downturn, the available evidence raises a strong fear that hysteresis is indeed
a factor. Although nothing in our analysis calls into question the importance of sustainable fiscal
policies, it strongly suggests the need for caution regarding the pace of fiscal consolidation.
Thus, at the zero bound, where the central bank cannot or will not but in any event does not perform
its full role in stabilization policy, fiscal policy has the stabilization policy mission that
others have convincingly argued it lacks in normal times....
-- DeLong and Summers
[ I find such a rationale for fiscal policy to foster growth only convincing in a limited and
possible even politically self-defeating way, and would argue the rationale importantly undervalues
fiscal policy as a growth driver. The paper is clear and important though as a beginning rationale
for fiscal policy use. ]
I find such a rationale for fiscal policy to foster growth only convincing in a limited and
possibly even politically self-defeating way, and would argue the rationale importantly undervalues
fiscal policy as a growth driver. The paper is clear and important though as a beginning rationale
for fiscal policy use.
A 21st-Century Marxism: The Revolutionary Possibilities of
the "New Economy"
by Chris Wright
" Marx was mainly an analyst of capitalism, not a prophet
or planner of socialism or communism. He did, however,
predict socialist revolution, even arguing that it was
inevitable and would inevitably take the form of a
"dictatorship of the proletariat."
This dictatorship, supposedly, would implement total
economic and social reconstruction even in the face of
massive opposition from the capitalist class, in effect
drawing up blueprints to plan out a "new society" that would,
somehow, on the basis of sheer political will, overcome the
authoritarian and exploitative legacies of capitalism.
Through necessarily coercive means, the government would
somehow plan and establish economic democracy, in the long
run creating the conditions for a "withering away of the
state." How such a withering away would actually happen was
left a mystery; and none of Marx's followers ever succeeded
in clearing the matter up."
A friend of the president says Donald Trump is
considering "terminating" special counsel Robert Mueller.
Newsmax CEO Chris Ruddy tells Judy Woodruff of "PBS
NewsHour": "I think he's considering perhaps terminating
the special counsel. I think he's weighing that option."
The White House did not immediately respond to
questions about Ruddy's claims.
Under current Justice Department regulations, such a
firing would have to be done by Attorney General Jeff
Sessions' deputy, Rod Rosenstein, not the president-
though those regulations could theoretically be set aside.
...
The top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee,
Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) fired back at reports that
President Trump is considering firing FBI special counsel
Robert Mueller with a simple message to the president:
"Don't waste our time." ...
Adam Schiff ✔ @RepAdamSchiff
If President fired Bob Mueller, Congress would
immediately re-establish independent counsel and appoint
Bob Mueller. Don't waste our time.
Trump is cray cray. He is definitely guilty of something
big involving Russia. Maybe the Republicans will in fact
move to impeach him and we'll get President Pence.
IMHO only neocons want Trump's removal. And it was them
who instigated Russiagate using Gene Sharp recipes of
color revolution. Classic, textbook attempt to
de-legitimize elections.
But neocon's Russiagate "color revolution" is very
dangerous for the USA move. Which suggests that they lost
their minds (which is very true about McCain and Hillary,
to name a few).
Please note that in 2014 the USA population was already
extremely anti-Russia biased: 64% of BBC poll respondents
viewed Russia negatively(not that I trust BBC in this area
;-). But now the percentage might either approach this
estimate or be even higher.
This is a recipe for war between those two countries.
BTW neoconservatism is neoliberal interpretation of
Trotskyism, which advocates "Permanent War".
Like neofascism it glories militarism (in the form of
New American Militarism as described by Professor
Bacevich), emphasizes confrontation, and regime change in
countries hostile to the interests of global corporation
and which are a barrier of spread of neoliberalism and
extension of global, US dominated neoliberal empire.
"... Looks like Clinton mafia is playing va bank. May be because Clinton's desperate need to maintain their profile because they badly need the money to sustain their "shadow party" infrastructure. ..."
"... But if Russiagate proved to be false those who supported they all can be tried by Trump administration for sedition. ..."
"... Don't be so naïve. Russiagate is a color revolution. If it fails, those who tried to launch this color revolution should be tried for sedition. ..."
If the above happened Trump would have his defenders in his Party. They will be voted out of office
for their perfidy by voters and be forgotten if history is a guide.
I wonder if it has ever occurred to the Democrat party brass that once the great Russian/Trump
treason snipe-hunt comes up empty they may face consequences.
Looks like Clinton mafia is playing va bank. May be because Clinton's desperate need to maintain their profile because they badly need the
money to sustain their "shadow party" infrastructure.
And because "the Clinton clan" (people who financially depend on the Clintons) is so numerous
(Podestas, Teneo, all those consultants), that they form their own ecosystem.
But if Russiagate proved to be false those who supported they all can be tried by Trump administration
for sedition.
Trump refused to pursue "emailgate" (which was a blunder), but now I think he will not allow
Hillary to get off the hook.
Sedition is overt conduct, such as speech and organization, that tends toward insurrection
against the established order. Sedition often includes subversion of a constitution and incitement
of discontention (or resistance) to lawful authority.
Sedition may include any commotion, though not aimed at direct and open violence against
the laws. Seditious words in writing are seditious libel. A seditionist is one who engages
in or promotes the interests of sedition.
"I wonder if it has ever occurred to the Democrat party brass that once the great Russian/Trump
treason snipe-hunt comes up empty they may face consequences."
What are you talking about? The Russia/Trump connection has been made just not to the level of treason or Impeachment,
yet, and it may not rise to that level.
However, the Trump directed WH cover-up of Russian Election involvement has risen to the level
of Obstruction of Justice and only time will tell if the Republicans in Congress will Impeach
Trump and the Senate Convict. Geez, pay attention, get your facts ordered and don't make leaps of nonsense about DEMs doing
their jobs as the Loyal Opposition since the GOP Leadership refuses to do its job to protect the
nation, its people, and the US Constitution.
Forget RussiaGate for the moment. Forget James Comey's upcoming testimony before the Senate
intelligence committee. Forget all the conspiratorial speculation that Donald Trump is the
plaything of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
In strictly foreign policy terms, Trump's election is not really working out so well for
the Kremlin. The sanctions against Russia are still in place, and Congress wants to make them
even more punitive. Nikki Haley is lambasting Putin and his policies from her perch at the
United Nations. Various investigations into the compromising ties of the Trump team represent
a significant speed bump in the administration's efforts to restart relations with Russia.
"... the experience since 2008 has strongly suggested that the research program that dominated macro
for the previous generation actually impaired the ability of economists to provide useful advice in
the moment. Mastering the fancy stuff made economists useless at the simple stuff. ..."
Macroeconomics: The Simple and the Fancy
By Paul Krugman
Noah Smith has a nice summation * of his critique of macroeconomics, which mainly comes down,
as I read it, as an appeal for researchers to stay close to the ground. That's definitely good
advice for young researchers.
But what about economists trying to provide useful advice, directly or indirectly, to policy
makers, who need to make decisions based on educated guesses about the whole system? Smith says,
"go slow, allow central bankers to use judgment and simple models in the meantime." That would
be better than a lot of what academic macroeconomists do in practice, which is to castigate central
bankers and other policymakers for not using elaborate models that don't work. But is there really
no role for smart academics to help out in this process? And if so, what does this say about the
utility of what the profession does?
The thing is, those simple models have done pretty darn well since 2008 - and central bankers
who used them, like Bernanke, did a lot better than central bankers like Trichet who based their
judgements on something else. So surely at least part of the training of macroeconomists should
prepare them to be helpful in applying simple models, maybe even in making those simple models
better.
Reading Smith, I found myself remembering an old line ** from Robert Solow in defense of "fancy"
economic theorizing:
"In economics I like a man to have mastered the fancy theory before I trust him with simple
theory because high-powered economics seems to be such an excellent school for the skillful use
of low-powered economics."
OK, can anyone make that case about modern macroeconomics? With a straight face? In practice,
it has often seemed that expertise in high-powered macroeconomics - mainly meaning dynamic stochastic
general equilibrium - positively incapacitates its possessors from the use of low-powered macroeconomics,
largely IS-LM and its derivatives.
I don't want to make a crude functional argument here: research that advances knowledge doesn't
have to provide an immediate practical payoff. But the experience since 2008 has strongly
suggested that the research program that dominated macro for the previous generation actually
impaired the ability of economists to provide useful advice in the moment. Mastering the fancy
stuff made economists useless at the simple stuff.
A more modest program would, in part, help diminish this harm. But it would also be really
helpful if macroeconomists relearned the idea that simple aggregate models can, in fact, be useful.
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling is a branch of applied general equilibrium
theory that is influential in contemporary macroeconomics. The DSGE methodology attempts to explain
aggregate economic phenomena, such as economic growth, business cycles, and the effects of monetary
and fiscal policy, on the basis of macroeconomic models derived from microeconomic principles.
Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium is a pseudoscience.
The problem with most neoclassical economics is that they are very bad mathematicians :-)
See, for example an interesting discussion at:
Why Neoclassical Economists Didnt See the Great Recession Coming by Prof Steve Keen
Uploaded on Jul 12, 2011
Mainstream "Neoclassical" Economists famously did not see the Great Recession coming, and when
you look at their theories, it's no wonder. Their favourite model prior to the crisis goes by
the name of "Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium", or DSGE. These models imagined that the
entire economy could be modeled as a single individual. Yet neoclassical researchers proved decades
ago that even a single market can't be modeled that way. I explain this proof while outlining
the fundamental truth that "Neoclassical Economists Don't Understand Neoclassical Economics".
The IS–LM model, or Hicks–Hansen model, is a macroeconomic tool that shows the relationship
between interest rates and real output, in the goods and services market and the money market
(also known as the assets market). The intersection of the "investment–saving" (IS) and "liquidity
preference–money supply" (LM) curves is the "general equilibrium" where there is simultaneous
equilibrium in both markets. Two equivalent interpretations are possible: first, the IS–LM model
explains changes in national income when the price level is fixed in the short-run; second, the
IS–LM model shows why the aggregate demand curve shifts. Hence, this tool is sometimes used not
only to analyse the fluctuations of the economy but also to find appropriate stabilisation policies.
Three Takeaways From Bernie Sanders' Speech At The
People's Summit
"He may not be the leader of the free
world, but to the 4,000 activists gathered at The
People's Summit in Chicago, Sen. Bernie Sanders reigns
supreme.
The former presidential candidate and senator from Vermont headlined the progressive activist
conference Saturday night, drawing whoops, hollers, and standing ovations from the crowd that fought
alongside him on the road to the White House. Sanders' new calling: turning the 'resistance' movement
into action in the face of a president he's called a "fraud."
Sanders took aim at President Trump, the Democratic Party, and the outsized role of corporations
in American politics, hitting the major themes from his campaign stump speech and introducing some
new ones.
Fed Needs a Better Inflation Target - Narayana Kocherlakota
yes for a given amount of monopoly power, which the fed does
not really control,
the most the fed can do is work on the real interest rates
but if we have less monopoly power that would reduce the
part of nairu that is also known as involuntary unemployment,
and help real wages, without having so much inflation
in other words closer we get to full a perfectly
componetitive market, the less change of accelerating
inflation because in a perfectly competitive market , firms
are price takers not price makers
in a perfectly competitive market, the unions couldn't
drive inflation, without monopoly power there is no
accelerating inflation period
the fed cant control that only the legislature and
judiciary can control the ext of monopoly power
the point is the can only target inflation and real
interest rates
but there are other factors that can get us to full
employment, ie eliminate involuntary employment, that affect
inflation wages and employment in different ways and
different directions
and those factors other than inflation and interest rates
that affect involuntary unemployment seem to be ignored when
we are having these discussion
"... What supply-demand-equilibrium economists never understood is that the price mechanism DESTABILIZES
the economy. The sequence is as follows: price up - rhoF down - employment down - wage rate down - rhoF
down - employment down - and so on. In other words, the market economy is inherently unstable. ..."
Think deeper
Comment on Bradford DeLong on 'RETHINK 2%'
"In order to tell the politicians and practitioners something about causes and best means,
the economist needs the true theory or else he has not much more to offer than educated common
sense or his personal opinion." (Stigum)
The fact of the matter is that economists do NOT have the true theory. More precisely, economists
do not know how the price- and profit mechanism works. The four main approaches ― Walrasianism,
Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism ― are mutually contradictory, axiomatically false, materially/formally
inconsistent, and all got profit wrong.
Because of this economic policy guidance never had sound scientific foundations. This holds
also for the RETHINK 2% letter to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors#1 which in turn is based
on Josh Bivens's article.#2
Note for a start that Josh Bivens does not mention profit ― the pivotal variable of economics
― once. From this follows that his underlying profit theory is false. And from this in turn follows
that his whole argument is false. ALL models that do not explicitly define macroeconomic profit
are false.
The elementary version of the correct objective, systemic, behavior-free, macrofounded employment
equation is shown on Wikimedia.#3 This equation says ― among other things ― that an increase of
the factor cost ratio rhoF=W/PR leads to higher employment. The ratio rhoF embodies the price
mechanism.
In order to focus on the crucial point imagine the FED has the means to directly influence
the price P and increases it by 2%, all other variables unchanged. The correct macroeconomic employment
equation tells us that employment falls. Bad move.
Next try. The FED sets the change of price to zero and instead increases the wage rate W by
2 %. The correct macroeconomic employment equation tells us that employment rises. Good move.
What supply-demand-equilibrium economists never understood is that the price mechanism
DESTABILIZES the economy. The sequence is as follows: price up - rhoF down - employment down -
wage rate down - rhoF down - employment down - and so on. In other words, the market economy is
inherently unstable.
#4 Standard employment theory is false. The proposal to get the economy going by increasing
price inflation is the direct result of the complete lack of understanding how the market economy
works.
Trump's Blunders Fuel Mideast Conflicts
President Trump's simplistic siding with Saudi Arabia and
Israel – and his callous reaction to a terror attack on
Iran – are fueling new tensions in the Middle East,
including the Qatar crisis.
By Alastair Crooke
Have "MbS" and "MbZ" overreached themselves? It is
still early in the Saudi-led blockade of Qatar, but yes,
it seems so. And in so doing, the hubris of Mohammad bin
Salman (MbS), the Saudi defense minister and the powerful
son of Saudi King Salman, and Mohammed bin Zayed (MbZ),
the crown prince of Abu Dhabi and supreme commander of the
UAE Armed Forces, will change the region's geopolitical
architecture.
President's Trump's (flawed) base strategic premises
(and narratives) that Iran is the ultimate source of all
instability in the region, and that the smacking down of
Qatar, a major patron of Palestinian Hamas, per se, was a
good thing, and should be applauded, bear direct
responsibility for the direction in which regional
geopolitics will now flow.
President Trump returned from his first overseas trip
convinced that he had unified the United States' historic
Arab allies, and dealt a strong blow against terrorism. He
did neither. He has been badly informed.
The fissure between Qatar and Saudi Arabia is an old,
storied affair, which harks back to longstanding al-Saud
angst at the original British decision to empower the al-Thani
family in their Qatar foothold in an otherwise all-Saudi
fiefdom. But if we lay aside, for a moment, the airing of
the long list of Saudi and UAE contemporary complaints
against Qatar, which for most part, simply serve as
justification for recent action, we should return to the
two principles that fundamentally shape the al-Saud
mindset and strategy – and which lie at the heart of this
current spat with Qatar.
The Reactionary Saudis ....
[ What appears to be a reasonable explanation of the
dispute between Saudi Arabia and Qatar that President
Trump has encouraged and applauded. ]
US policy toward Iran has no strategic perspective outside
what is dictated by the House of Saud. That is it has no
moral foundation.
Iran is a source of instability only
in areas where Shiite majorities have no self
determination and are suppressed by Wahhabi interests.
Iran is not the source of instability in Yemen, where
the Saudi intrigued with the old colonizers since the 50's
to blunt Pan Arabism only recently abandoned the
'Imamate'.
Arabian peninsula instability has to do with self
determination and/or a different preference in Imam. The
kind of instability Jefferson would have supported.
The Houston Riyadh axis has no moral claim to
protection by the US republic.
While Qatar is a short flight from Iran, with near sea
lanes as well.
SIPRI Military Expenditure Database
2017 Fact Sheet (for 2016) [Wikipedia]
1 US $611.2B annually 3.3% of GDP
2 China $215.7B 1.9%
3 Russia $69.2B 5.3%
4 Saudi Arabia $63.7B 10%
5 India $55.9B 2.5%
6 France $55.7B 2.3%
7 UK $48.3B 1.9%
8 Japan $46.1B 1%
9 Germany $41.1B 1.2%
10 South Korea $36.8B 2.7%
Budget, US figure does not include OCO* which is separate
budget.
*spent on things like training al Qaeda in Syria
then defending US grab in Syria, body bags in Syria air
refueling and naval support for bombing Yemen, etc.
This 2.5% calculated vs GDP which includes oversized FIRE
sector. As such it is somewhat deceptive. Along the lines:
look how little we spend on defense.
The reality is different.
For 2015 total budget was 3.97 trillion. Military budget
was 637 billions. That's 16%. And part of military budget is
hidden (Department Of Energy, three letter agencies, etc.)
So we can assume that 2 out of each ten dollars goes to
defense. That's a serious hit and that might help to explain
crumbling infrastructure in the USA. Might be a symptom of
British-style overextension of the empire.
I would say precious metals are subject to tighter physical
constraints (first of all, availability) than most of what
have been considered "fiat" currencies.
E.g. emergency
"fiat" coin has been produced from cheaper metals, e.g. iron,
aluminum, or brass. Forgery-resistant paper currency is not
cheap, but probably still cheaper than precious metals.
All that is beside the point - today's currencies are only
virtual accounting entries (though with a not so cheap
supervision and auditing infrastructure attached to enforce
scarcity, or rather limit issuance to approved parties).
Gold and silver prices are
determined by labor costs of production.
Cartels act to limit global supply to push prices above
labor costs, but even the Cartels have trouble resisting
selling into the market when the price far exceeds labor cost
of the marginal unit of production.
In today's political economy, the barrier to entry is rule
of law which requires paying workers to produce without
causing harm to others. The lowest cost new gold production
is all criminal, involving theft of gold from land the miners
have no property rights, done by causing harm and death to
bystanders, with protection of the criminal operations coming
from criminals who capture most of the profit from the
workers.
Estimates vary, but some believe 90% of all gold mined in
5000 years is still held by humans as property. If a method
of extracting gold from sea water at a labor cost of $300 an
ounce, the "destruction of wealth" would be many trillions of
dollars.
All that's needed is a method of processing sea water that
could be built for $300 per ounce of lifetime asset life. A
$300 million in labor cost processing ship that kept working
for 30 years producing over that 30 years a million ounces of
gold would quickly drive the price of gold to $350-400. If it
doesn't, a thousand ships would be quickly built that would
add a billion ounces to the global supply in 30 years
representing 1/6th global supply after 5000 years.
Unless gold suddenly gained new uses, say dresses that
every upper middle class women had to have, and that cost
more than $300 an ounce to return to industrial gold, such
production would force the price of gold to or below labor
cost.
However, a dollar coin plated one atom thick in 3 cents of
gold will always have a value of a dollar's worth of labor.
The number of minutes of labor or the skills required for
each second of labor can change, but as long as the dollar
buys labor, it will have a dollar of value.
If robots do all the work, then a dollar becomes
meaningless. A theoretical economy of robots doing all the
work means a car can be priced at a dollar or a gigadollars,
but the customers must be given that dollar or that
gigadollars, or the robots will produce absolutely nothing.
Robots producing a million cars a month which no one has the
money to buy means the cars cost zero. To simply produce cars
that are never sold means the marginal cost is zero.
Money is a rationing mechanism to control the use and
distribution of scarce economic resources. Labor (of various
specializations) is a scarce resource, or the scarcest
resource commanding the highest price, only if other
resources are more plentiful.
There are many cases where
labor, even specialized labor, is not the critical
bottleneck, and is not the majority part of the price. E.g.
in the case of patents where the owner can charge what the
market will bear due to intellectual property enforcement. Or
any other part of actual or figurative "toll collection" with
ownership or control of critical economic means or
infrastructure. That's pure rent extraction.
Some things cost a lot *not* because of the labor involved
- a lot of labor (not spent on producing the actual good) can
be involved because the obtainable price can pay for it.
The value of precious metals or gems is also entirely
arbitrary. They only have value because someone says they do,
as they have little utilitarian value.
The initial allure of bitcoin has been "anonymity", until
people figured out that all transactions are publicly
recorded with a certain amount of metadata. This can be
partially defeated by "mixing services", i.e. systematic
laundering. There have also been alleged frauds (complete
with arrests) that got a lot of press in the scene, where
bitcoin "safekeeping services" (I don't quite want to say
"banks") "lost" currency or in any case couldn't return
deposits to depositors. No deposit insurance, not much in the
way of contract enforcement, etc.
Then there were stories
about computer viruses and malware targeted at stealing
account credentials or "wallet files".
FWIW, I regard bitcoin as a colossal folly intended to appeal
to crazed libertarian idiots, goldbug nutters, and criminals
and has little utility or real value. Investing in bubble gum
cards makes more sense.
What if "more public participation" can't save American
democracy?
It's time to make peace with reality and develop a new
plan.
Updated by Lee Drutman Jun 9, 2017, 12:00pm EDT
American democracy is in a downward spiral. Well, really
two downward spirals.
The first is the downward spiral of bipolar partisanship,
in which both sides increasingly demonize each other as the
enemy, and refuse to compromise and cooperate - an escalating
arms race that is now going beyond mere gridlock and
threatening basic democratic norms.
The second is the downward spiral of distrust between
citizens and elites, in which citizens treat "corrupt" and
"establishment" as interchangeable terms. The public
consensus is that politicians are self-serving, not to be
trusted. In this logic, only more public participation can
make politicians serve the people.
"... "In particular, our results show that mining-induced violence was associated mainly with foreign ownership...." ..."
"... Leaders of African countries indeed can resist multinationals. All they have to do is refuse bribes and survive attempts by
the CIA, the State Department, and thugs hired by the multinationals to have them killed. And after succeeding then can then try and
manage their countries economy while cut off from the world banking system. ..."
Countering the mining curse
By Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier, Dominic Rohner, and Mathias Thoenig
Countries that are rich in natural resources do not always prosper economically. This column uses data on conflict and mineral
extraction in Africa to argue that recent rises in mineral prices explain up to a quarter of local conflicts between 1997 and
2010. Mining-induced violence is associated with foreign ownership, although corporate social responsibility policies were associated
with less violence. This is relevant to the US debate on whether to scrap the legal requirement to disclose whether products contain
conflict minerals....
In particular, our results show that mining-induced violence was associated mainly with foreign ownership. Nevertheless, among
foreign-owned companies, the ones that operated in the least corrupt countries, and the ones that had corporate social responsibility
policies were associated with less violence....
This Mine Is Mine! How Minerals Fuel Conflicts in Africa
By Nicolas Berman, Mathieu Couttenier, Dominic Rohner, and Mathias Thoenig
Abstract
We combine georeferenced data on mining extraction of 14 minerals with information on conflict events at spatial resolution
of 0.5 degree x 0.5 degree for all of Africa between 1997 and 2010. Exploiting exogenous variations in world prices, we find a
positive impact of mining on conflict at the local level. Quantitatively, our estimates suggest that the historical rise in mineral
prices (commodity super-cycle) might explain up to one-fourth of the average level of violence across African countries over the
period. We then document how a fighting group's control of a mining area contributes to escalation from local to global violence.
Finally, we analyze the impact of corporate practices and transparency initiatives in the mining industry.
However, I have only read the abstract and conclusion so far. I will read the entire paper carefully. An assertion that surprised
me and for which I have no intuitive explanation is made in the summary:
"In particular, our results show that mining-induced violence was associated mainly with foreign ownership...."
Kofi Annan is right - the world's multinationals are abusing transfer pricing to shift the economic rents from these African mines
to tax havens in places like Switzerland....
[ Perfect, describe the process simply and with no judgmental language so that the process is made clear. No jargon. Understanding
before any judgement. ]
Leaders of African countries indeed can resist multinationals. All they have to do is refuse bribes and survive attempts by
the CIA, the State Department, and thugs hired by the multinationals to have them killed. And after succeeding then can then try
and manage their countries economy while cut off from the world banking system.
New Labour (neoliberal democrats) especially what is called DemoRats in the USA (Clinton's wing
of the Democratic Party) sold themselves to financial oligarchy becoming a just a more moderate
branch of the Republican party.
They counted the working class has nowhere to go. They miscalculated. In the USA working class
moved right. In case of GB -- left. But in both cases they were shown three finger salute.
BTW why Putin was sleeping and did not interfere in elections like he did in France, leading
to Macron victory ;-). His dream of Brexit now is in danger :-)
Not so much? The usual librul suspects here are downright depressed by Corbyn's success...first,
we had their opposition to Bernie' now to Corbyn...they represent nothing less than the left
hand of the plutocracy, Republicans representing the right hand.
Jeremy Corbyn has caused a sensation – he would make a fine prime minister
by Owen Jones
Fri. June 9 107
This is one of the most sensational political upsets of our time. Theresa May – a wretched
dishonest excuse of a politician, don't pity her – launched a general election with the sole purpose
of crushing opposition in Britain. It was brazen opportunism, a naked power grab: privately, I'm
told, her team wanted the precious "bauble" of going down in history as the gravediggers of the
British Labour party. Instead, she has destroyed herself. She is toast.
She has just usurped David Cameron as the "worst ever prime minister on their own terms" (before
Cameron, it had been a title held by Lord North since the 18th century). Look at the political
capital she had: the phenomenal polling lead, almost the entire support of the British press,
the most effective electoral machine on Earth behind her. Her allies presented the Labour opposition
as an amusing, eccentric joke that could be squashed like a fly that had already had its wings
ripped off. They genuinely believed they could get a 180-seat majority. She will leave No 10 soon,
disgraced, entering the history books filed under "hubris".
But, before a false media narrative is set, let me put down a marker. Yes, the Tory campaign
was a shambolic, insulting mess, notable only for its U-turns, a manifesto that swiftly disintegrated,
robotically repeated mantras that achieved only ridicule. But don't let media commentators – hostile
to Labour's vision – pretend that the May calamity is all down to self-inflicted Tory wounds.
This was the highest turnout since 1997, perhaps the biggest Labour percentage since the same
year – far eclipsing Tony Blair's total in 2005. Young and previous non-voters came out in astonishing
numbers, and not because they thought, "Ooh, Theresa May doesn't stick to her promises, does she?"
Neither can we reduce this to a remainer revolt. The Lib Dems threw everything at the despondent
remainer demographic, with paltry returns. Many Ukip voters flocked to the Labour party.
No: this was about millions inspired by a radical manifesto that promised to transform Britain,
to attack injustices, and challenge the vested interests holding the country back. Don't let them
tell you otherwise. People believe the booming well-off should pay more, that we should invest
that money in schools, hospitals, houses, police and public services, that all in work should
have a genuine living wage, that young people should not be saddled with debt for aspiring to
an education, that our utilities should be under the control of the people of this country. For
years, many of us have argued that these policies – shunned, reviled even in the political and
media elite – had the genuine support of millions. And today that argument was decisively vindicated
and settled.
Don't let them get away with the claim that, "Ah, this election just shows a better Labour
leader could have won!" Risible rot. Do we really think that Corbyn's previous challengers to
the leadership – and this is nothing personal – would have inspired millions of otherwise politically
disengaged and alienated people to come out and vote, and drive Labour to its highest percentage
since the famous Blair landslide? If the same old stale, technocratic centrism had been offered,
Labour would have faced an absolute drubbing, just like its European sister parties did.
Labour is now permanently transformed. Its policy programme is unchallengeable. It is now the
party's consensus. It cannot and will not be taken away. Those who claimed it could not win the
support of millions were simply wrong. No, Labour didn't win, but from where it started, that
was never going to happen. That policy programme enabled the party to achieve one of the biggest
shifts in support in British history – yes, eclipsing Tony Blair's swing in 1997.
Social democracy is in crisis across the western world. British Labour is now one of the most
successful centre-left parties, many of which have been reduced to pitiful rumps under rightwing
leaderships. And indeed, other parties in Europe and the United States should learn lessons from
this experience.
....
JohnH -> Christopher H.... June 09, 2017 at 01:09 PM
Great catch!
You will be hard pressed to find any such piece ever printed in the opinion pages of any
newspaper in the American 'free' press.
By shunning candidates like Bernie and Corbyn, the American librul commentariat has been
exposed for what it is--corrupted by wealthy, powerful interests.
We also know for certain that there were numerous violations of the voting rights act due to Crosscheck
and other caging operations. We also know that a number of state election officials computers
were hacked by Russia - and I have seen the guts of those Diabold machines and even with my limited
programing skills I could hack one and cover my tracks.
New York Times responds to Comey's challenge of its story Comey rips media for 'dead wrong'
Russia stories MORE (R-Ark.) asked the former FBI director about a bombshell New York Times report
from Feb. 14 titled "Trump Campaign Aides Had Repeated Contacts With Russian Intelligence."
"Phone records and intercepted calls show that members of Donald J. Trump's 2016 presidential
campaign and other Trump associates had repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials
in the year before the election, according to four current and former American officials," the
Times wrote. Cotton asked Comey if that story was "almost entirely wrong," and Comey said that
it was.
The Times has run one meaningful correction to that report, saying it overstated the number
of people whom the FBI has examined. The Times report did note, however, that so far intelligence
officials had seen no evidence of "cooperation" between the Trump campaign and Russia.
Jeremy Corbyn may have hung the British Parliament. In doing so, the Labour Party leader defied
most expectations, but his success should not be such a shock-and provides a lesson for American
progressives. Corbyn deprived Theresa May of the Conservative majority, which she had hoped to expand
with Thursday's snap-election, with a vibrantly left-wing rejection of austerity.
Labour's challenge will be to maintain its momentum. But May's earliest moves already secured the
likelihood of another backlash to her government: She is attempting to form a coalition government
with Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, which once launched a campaign to "Save Ulster
from Sodomy" and vigorously opposed marriage equality and abortion rights. May's catastrophic performance
only left her with the option to pivot further right and away from the youth vote that supported
Labour. The left should never rest too confidently in victory, but it is in a strong position to
reclaim the government from Tory rule.
This contradicts predictions from a number of liberal British commentators and from Labour's centrist
faction. In April, commentator Nick Cohen warned Corbynites: "You don't have a radical programme
that a 20th-century Marxist or any other serious thinker would recognise. All that's left of the
far left is a babble of sneers and slogans." Former Prime Minister Tony Blair repeatedly refused
to endorse Corbyn, saying in April that the Labour leader posed "zero" threat to Theresa May's government.
"My view about the right-wing populism is very, very clear. It can only be defeated by progressive
forces building out from the center," he told Politico. Après moi, le déluge.
And what a flood it is! Corbyn won more seats than Ed Miliband did in 2015. The Evening Standard
reports that it was the party's biggest vote share since Blair's 2001 win, and according to The Independent
a larger share than the victory that put Blair in 10 Downing Street in 2005. Exit polling projects
that youth turnout increased 12 points from Miliband's shambolic performance in 2015, a reaction
to Brexit and to the Conservative Party's austerity kink. But Labour's success is not restricted
to youth. It won gains in deeply conservative areas, unseating Conservatives in Canterbury and likely
Kensington-two seats the party's never held. In Ipswich, they unseated Brian Gummer, who wrote the
Conservatives' electoral manifesto.
The parallels between British and American politics are obviously inexact, but they do exist.
Like America, the U.K. is recovering from a shock victory for the populist right. It sits crushed
by a conservative government unapologetically committed to a platform of austerity; Trump's infamous
skinny budget is a Tory wet dream. Tories are steadily whittling the U.K. welfare state down to nothing,
bleeding the poor while bloating the rich. And if Labour had adopted the tactics of the Democratic
Party-if it had run a centrist candidate, if it had dismissed cries for equitable access to health
care and education as the utopian ambitions of misguided youth-then Theresa May would likely have
a majority government.
There are lessons here, if Democrats wish to learn them. But they will have to radically reorient
the party. Health care is their best wedge issue: Trumpcare is unpopular, and the Affordable Care
Act, though inadequate, is a tangible benefit that voters are reluctant to lose. The party should
similarly focus on youth turnout, and that means paying more attention to the policies of Senator
Bernie Sanders: free public college tuition (not Andrew Cuomo's milquetoast alternative), and student
debt forgiveness. That's how you win young voters.
Democrats face a difficult path to victory. So did Labour, but it achieved massive gains by putting
forward an authentically progressive manifesto that promised tangible improvements to people's lives.
They positioned themselves unapologetically in accordance with their name: They are the party of
labor, and not of capital, and so they are the party of the many and not the few. They did not shirk
from utopianism, or from hope; they treated young and old alike with serious consideration, and made
reasoned, convincing appeals for their votes.
Democratic candidates are carefully vetted by insiders--the DNC, the DCCC, and
the DSCC. Like Bernie, no one gets any party support unless they heel to the neoliberal agenda.
"... No I want the return on New Deal Capitalism. But this is impossible as managerial class changed it allegiance and the political block that made the New Deal possible no longer exists. ..."
"... I do not see the alternative to neoliberalism right now. Soviet style "state capitalism" (which some call socialism) is definitely worse. Over centralization proved to be really deadly for large states. ..."
"... Left is not panacea for solving economic problems. Neither is the US style neoliberalism. There is probably "golden level" in redistributive policies like in tennis: if you hold the racket too tightly you can't play well; if you hold it too lose (deregulation) you can't play well either. ..."
So, you want Chavez style government
with all the wealth redistributed to the masses and the central bank printing money like crazy
so everyone is able to consume far more than is produced?
Or do you blame Obama for US oil production
doubling while oil demand was cut by efficiency and alternatives thus destroying half the wealth
in Venezuela, the half Chavez hadn't yet redistributed?
I can't figure out which is worse, the free lunch right-wing or the free lunch leftist.
"So, you want Chavez style
government with all the wealth redistributed to the masses and the central bank printing
money like crazy so everyone is able to consume far more than is produced?"
No I want
the return on New Deal Capitalism. But this is impossible as managerial class changed it
allegiance and the political block that made the New Deal possible no longer exists.
I do not see the alternative to neoliberalism right now. Soviet style "state capitalism"
(which some call socialism) is definitely worse. Over centralization proved to be really
deadly for large states.
As for Venezuela we simply do not know what part of their problems were created externally
(being of the same continent with Uncle Sam and not to dance to his neoliberal tune is a
dangerous undertaking, if you ask me). Please note the Argentina and Brazil already folded
and neoliberal governments are in power again, and not without help from Uncle Sam.
And what part are internal and rooted in mismanagement of the economy due to corruption
within the left government and or unrealistic redistribution policies.
Left is not panacea for solving economic problems. Neither is the US style neoliberalism.
There is probably "golden level" in redistributive policies like in tennis: if you hold
the racket too tightly you can't play well; if you hold it too lose (deregulation) you can't
play well either.
"... It had shown staggering incompetence and arrogance of Hillary and her close circle. You can argue about the level of criminality, but it is impossible to argue about staggering level of incompetence and arrogance. "Bathroom server" was essentially "shadow IT" installed by Hillary for her nefarious purpose to hide transactions benefitting Clinton foundation and generally to remain out of control, while in government. ..."
"... All-in-all vividly demonstrated that Obama administration as whole was a dysfunctional mess with corruption and clique infighting inside major departments (Meeting of Bill Clinton and Loretta Lynch; Comey granting immunity to everybody, suppressing the investigation and then having the second thoughts; Obama greed after he left the office). ..."
I disagree. It
had shown staggering incompetence and arrogance of Hillary
and her close circle. You can argue about the level of
criminality, but it is impossible to argue about
staggering level of incompetence and arrogance. "Bathroom
server" was essentially "shadow IT" installed by Hillary
for her nefarious purpose to hide transactions benefitting
Clinton foundation and generally to remain out of control,
while in government.
Attempts to suppress investigation now also can be
proved. Much better then Trump collision with Russians.
All-in-all vividly demonstrated that Obama
administration as whole was a dysfunctional mess with
corruption and clique infighting inside major departments
(Meeting of Bill Clinton and Loretta Lynch; Comey granting
immunity to everybody, suppressing the investigation and
then having the second thoughts; Obama greed after he left
the office).
If this was a big nothing, then dementia is not a
problem :-)
"I disagree. It had shown staggering incompetence and
arrogance of Hillary and her close circle. yo can argue
about the level of criminality, but it is impossible to
argue about staggering level of incompetence and
arrogance."
OK, Clinton was not 1000% perfect.
So, that justifies giving the job to Trump because 5%
competency from a man is better than a 98% competent
woman?
Only men are allowed to be both arrogant and
incompetent!
"... Trump actions do not match his rhetoric. His policies give large tax cuts to very wealthy people. He is not pursuing an agenda in favor of less inequality, faster growth or higher employment. Unfortunately, the pursuit of tax cuts for the wealthy will likely make the rest of us poorer. ..."
"... Yes Trump has proven to be much more stupid and ineffective I thought he would be. Maybe it was the way he vanquished his many competitors in the Republican primary and beat Hillary. ..."
"... He's been negligent and stupid except apparently with judges. He'd rather play golf and tweet. ..."
Trump actions do not match his rhetoric.
His policies give large tax cuts to very wealthy people.
He is not pursuing an agenda in favor of less inequality, faster growth or higher employment.
Unfortunately, the pursuit of tax cuts for the wealthy will likely make the rest of us poorer.
Yes Trump has proven to be much
more stupid and ineffective I thought he would be. Maybe it was the way he vanquished his many
competitors in the Republican primary and beat Hillary.
He's been negligent and stupid except
apparently with judges. He'd rather play golf and tweet.
Agreed. But that still does not
make all of his voters racist. Maybe some of them were misled, but the ones that I know were
just plain desperate. They did not expect Trump to perform especially well as POTUS. It was
enough for them that he was not Hillary.
The glorious German philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche in Thus Spoke Zaratustra brought up the concept
of the Last Man. Trawling through the internet you will hear about the Last Man constantly, but no
accurate definition or statement about what a Last Man actually is. So this article will discuss
the character traits of the Last Man – let's just hope that the Last Man does not remind you of yourself.
The Last Man is primarily characterized as the type of individual that is fat, lazy and
falls asleep watching TV after over indulging in junk food. This clearly denotes the type of man
that is content with living a life whose primary and only purpose is to exist in
a perpetual state of comfort, security and pleasure. This is a value system that does not idealize
or extol higher values, challenging circumstances or hard work.
Zarathustra after descending the mountains is trying to deliver a sermon to a crowd of people
that are hanging around the marketplace. Individuals that normally hang around a marketplace are
typically known as commoners – especially in Nietzsche's time – and their primary concern is grotesque
entertainment, gossip, manners and commerce.
After delivering his sermon about the Overman/Superman (or Ubersmensch) Nietzsche receives an
apathetic and mocking response. One must imagine how extremely jarring this was for Zarathustra considering
he has just descended from his sojourn in the mountains to proclaim this message. Rather comically,
you can imagine Nietzsche's Zarathustra as the typical hobo you hear in the town centre raving about
God or some other incoherent babble, whilst others walk past laughing, scared or neutral. Except
this raving mystic is much more coherent than usual and is delivering some badass Nietzschean theory.
Nietzsche: " There they stand; there they laugh: they do not understand me; I am not the mouth
for these ears They have something of which they are proud. What do they call it, that which makes
them proud? Culture, they call it; it distinguishes them from the goatherds. They dislike, therefore,
to hear of "contempt" of themselves. So I will appeal to their pride.
I will speak to them of the most contemptible thing: that, however, is the Last Man !"
Contempt here is being used in its typical notion, the feeling that something is worthless and
should not be considered. Here, as suggested by the text, Nietzsche will appeal to their "pride"
by talking to them about what he believes is the most contemptible thing – The Last Man
. This Last Man is the embodiment of their culture. So, Nietzsche is clearly telling us
that the Last Man is valueless and worthless.
What is the Last Man :
Nietzsche: "I tell you: one must still have chaos in oneself, to give birth to a dancing star.
I tell you: you have still chaos in yourselves.
Alas! There comes the time when man will no longer give birth to any star. Alas! There comes the
time of the most despicable man, who can no longer despise himself.
Lo! I show you the Last Man ."
The Last Man cannot despise himself. That is, he cannot feel or understand that his actions,
values or decisions may under some or all circumstances be lacking in value. This is important. To
not have the orientation that your actions may be lacking, be worthless or unsubstantial entails
that you do not have any serious self-reflective capacity to evaluate your actions. The Last
Man we can reasonably assume acts in a manner that is contemptible and embarrassing for a culture
to promote. So the fact that the Last Man does not have the consciousness nor the insight
to evaluate his actions as lacking value or real meaningful substance means that he is unable to
change them in a positive manner and be something other than the Last Man . Only the
Last Man can be the type of man that lacks insight to such degree that he finds it not only
acceptable, content, but also agreeable to be the Last Man.
Nietzsche: "What is love? What is creation? What is longing? What is a star?" -- so asks the Last
Man, and blinks. The earth has become small, and on it hops the Last Man, who makes everything small.
His species is ineradicable as the flea; the Last Man lives longest."
The Last Man according to Nietzsche's rendering of him is the type of individual that
does not care or even remotely try to answer the questions of his existence, those that profoundly
affect and determine his life. The Last Man , by this characterization, is neither a romantic,
a philosopher, a scientist or a poet.
And due to the unquestioning nature of this type of man, the world has been made small and manageable.
According to this type of man, the striving, the ambition, the determination to battle against hardship
and the desire to become more than we currently are is a deterrent to happiness.
Nietzsche: "The earth has become small, and on it hops the Last Man, who makes everything small.
His species is ineradicable as the flea; the Last Man lives longest.
Yet despite all of this, the Last Man , due to his security, comfort and pleasure believes:
Nietzsche: ""We have discovered happiness" -- say the Last Men, and they blink."
Nietzsche goes on to discuss the herd-like collective behaviour and the smug mentality of this group
that dogmatically and unquestionably believes the man of the present to better than the men of the
past. If this is true, then the values and behaviors that instantiate the Last Man are,
according to him, to be preferred over all other values. Once again, the Last Man is unwilling
to question his values against any other lifestyle or generational values, due to their inability
to evaluate values that should guide their or others' behaviour.
Nietzsche: "No shepherd, and one herd! Everyone wants the same; everyone is the same: he who feels
differently goes voluntarily into the madhouse. Formerly all the world was insane," -- say the subtlest
of them, and they blink.
Despite Zarathustra's attempt to shame the market crowd with a contemptible notion of their culture
through the concept of the Last Man , the crowd continue to mock him by clamoring to become
the Last Man . As we can see, they have truly misunderstood Nietzsche's message and this
market crowd is the collective manifestation of the Last Man .
--
If you're interested in buying Thus Spoke Zarathustra please use the link below to support and
improve Apotheosis Magazine
"For some reason, the cells in the REM sleep area are the
first to be sickened."
by Tracy Staedter...06/05/2017...03:33 pm ET
...""REM Behavior Disorder is in fact the best-known
predictor of the onset of Parkinson's disease," Peever said.
[5 Surprising Sleep Discoveries]
The brain diseases like Parkinson's and dementia with Lewy
bodies typically occur six to 15 years after a RBD diagnosis.
Until now, the link between RBD and these neurological
diseases has been anecdotal, though, Peever said. Researchers
who studied the brains of cadavers from people who suffered
from both RBD and a brain disease found damage to the neurons
in the brain stem. But that didn't mean the damage had caused
RBD.
"There was a correlation, but no causality," Peever said.
"What our study has done is taken away the correlation and
show causality."...
"... He identifies what he calls three 'breaks' in the Phillips curve as it would apply to Switzerland over a roughly 60 year period between 1936 and 1994. What I would like to know is exactly how many breaks would be needed before the theory is described as interesting but useless for guessing the inflation rate by looking at the unemployment rate. ..."
"... The Phillips curve has been a fairly central idea in economics for what 60 years? Propositions like the natural rate of unemployment and NAIRU that are based on the Phillips curve idea have been and continue to be used by policy-makers at the Fed to justify using unemployment to counter-act inflation. I would submit that it is very, very important to make sure the Phillips curve is applicable and accurate before implementing policy that is designed to either create unemployment or to keep people unemployed so as to control inflation. ..."
He identifies what he calls three 'breaks' in the Phillips curve as it would apply to Switzerland
over a roughly 60 year period between 1936 and 1994. What I would like to know is exactly how
many breaks would be needed before the theory is described as interesting but useless for guessing
the inflation rate by looking at the unemployment rate.
Dear Fake Pink Slime, I appreciate your thoughts. 4:30 AM is perhaps not the best time for me
to write comments- I am sure mine could use some alterations.
But what is your excuse?
The Phillips curve has been a fairly central idea in economics for what 60 years? Propositions
like the natural rate of unemployment and NAIRU that are based on the Phillips curve idea have
been and continue to be used by policy-makers at the Fed to justify using unemployment to counter-act
inflation. I would submit that it is very, very important to make sure the Phillips curve is applicable
and accurate before implementing policy that is designed to either create unemployment or to keep
people unemployed so as to control inflation.
When an economist such as Stefan Gerlack, or any other economist for that matter, raises questions
about the Phillips curve, I believe it is both interesting and important.
As you may have realized, I am not a big fan of the Phillips curve and even less of a fan of
the various theories built upon it. And I think policy based upon it has an obligation to at least
show that the original idea is accurate and applies to the economy today.
Yes there is a very interesting statistical path: the relation between changes in employment....
however defined and in output prices ...however defined
Is there a causal relationship running from each to the other ?
Undoubtably
Do we economic scientists have the ability to predict the future path of his relationship ?
NO NO NO --
Do policy makers and macronauts at the FED act as if our silence has given us a useful prediction
algorithm ?
Yes yes yes
We need the praxis of raw discovery here among much else
Our FED must take us down into the depths
Where unemployment begins to disappear
Down and down
Let's map the lower regions
Where we have not done in " peace " time
Danger ? An added hours acceleration based wage boom ?
Surely that's a desideratum today
Even if it's purely nominal
A wage rate boom ?
Again yes even if it's purely nominal
A acceleration of out put price inflation ?
Yes if indeed its wage boom induced
Other sources of output price acceleration unrelated to the induced wage boom
Must be considered incidental
NB raw commodity price booms only occur thru real demand increases
Thus we have to look at real wage change and cost of living change impacts
Of real raw commodity price acceleration
Never underestimate the ability of neoliberal economic
theory to ignore reality.
Both employment rate and
inflation are politically charged metrics. That means that
definitions are periodically "adjusted" (use of U3 instead
of U6, idea of substitution, advent of "core inflation",
etc).
There are powerful political incentives to
underestimate the unemployment rate and inflation rate.
Politically Phillips curve is connected with the idea
of "natural rate of employment", NAIRU and similar staff.
The popularity of the concept of "Phillips curve" is based
on the ability to use NAIRU for wage suppression.
Also as Paul Mattic noted in this blog some time ago:
"In the post WWII era, when has the Phillips curve
actually produced a correlation over any decade? It
certainly has not produced one over the past decade."
That means that other factors are in play and are more
important, so isolation of those two factors and attempt
to find dependency between them is unscientific and
basically can be considered as a kind of a freshman error.
Take for example interest rates influence on both (pushing
on the string, etc) after 2008.
"... There is a special term for those folk who are mainly involved in justified their own existence: "national security parasites". Their existence does increase chances of accidental war with Russia or China because they want to defend not the USA, but their lucrative positions and streams of income. That requires certain level of hostilities to be maintained. In other words the USA needs a permanent enemy to justify military expenses and there is a network network of consultants, think-tanks and neocon operatives (including democratic) tasked with this goal. An integral part of MIC -- its propaganda arm, is you wish. ..."
"a huge military establishment, the Pentagon needs to
regularly justify its existence."
There is a special term
for those folk who are mainly involved in justified their own
existence: "national security parasites". Their existence
does increase chances of accidental war with Russia or China
because they want to defend not the USA, but their lucrative
positions and streams of income. That requires certain level
of hostilities to be maintained. In other words the USA needs
a permanent enemy to justify military expenses and there is a
network network of consultants, think-tanks and neocon
operatives (including democratic) tasked with this goal. An
integral part of MIC -- its propaganda arm, is you wish.
Some ways of justification, especially recently used by
democratic operatives to attack Trump, look suspiciously
close to treason to some observers.
OK, let's assume that Russians are the US enemies. If so,
then the recent leaks about Russian diplomatic communications
interception sound like betrayal of Bretchley Park efforts to
decode enigma during WWII.
In other words, some damned traitors in Washington have
just told the enemy that their top secret communications have
been cracked. Its a bit like the BBC broadcasting during WWII
that German enigma machine/ code has been cracked.
If true, huge advantage, considerable amount of money and
efforts of NSA (as well taxpayers money) just disappeared in
thin air.
And today's electronic cipher gear is much more
sophisticated than in the era of Enigma, and, therefore, the
loss is so much greater.
"seasoned military commanders" are like the Nazis who said US
lost Vietnam because they were not patient. These "seasoned
military commanders" seek only not to lose!
While why
should anyone "follow US leadership with these type of
"seasoned military commanders"?
Iran and Pakistan without US meddling will stabilize the
place enough to link to OBOR.
The US is trying to prove you can kill enough of them to
solve their problems, for them!
America's neocons, who wield great power inside the U.S.
government and media, endanger the planet by
concoctingstrategies inside their heads that
ignorereal-world consequences.
Thus, their"regime changes" have unleashed ancient
hatreds and spread chaos across the globe.
"seasoned military commanders" are like the Nazis who said US
lost Vietnam because they were not patient. These "seasoned
military commanders" seek only not to lose!
While why
should anyone "follow US leadership with these type of
"seasoned military commanders"?
Iran and Pakistan without US meddling will stabilize the
place enough to link to OBOR.
The US is trying to prove you can kill enough of them to
solve their problems, for them!
America's neocons, who wield great power inside the U.S.
government and media, endanger the planet by
concocting strategies inside their heads that
ignore real-world consequences.
Thus, their "regime changes" have unleashed ancient
hatreds and spread chaos across the globe.
"... Some of those approaches essentially turned John Quincy Adams's admonition on its head by asserting that it is ..."
"... In recent years, as the ranks of the "realists" the likes of George Kennan, Henry Kissinger and Brent Scowcroft have aged and thinned, the ranks of the neocons and their junior partners, the liberal interventionists, swelled. Indeed, these "anti-realists" have now grown dominant, touting themselves as morally superior because they don't just call for human rights, they take out governments that don't measure up. ..."
"... The primary distinction between the neocons and the liberal interventionists has been the centrality of Israel in the neocons' thinking while their liberal sidekicks put "humanitarianism" at the core of their world view. But these differences are insignificant, in practice, since the liberal hawks are politically savvy enough not to hold Israel accountable for its human rights crimes and clever enough to join with the neocons in easy-to-sell "regime change" strategies toward targeted countries with weak lobbies in Washington. ..."
"... Because Reagan's usurpation of human rights language involved support for brutal right-wing forces, such as the Guatemalan military and the Nicaraguan Contra rebels, the process required an Orwellian change in what words meant. "Pro-democracy" had to become synonymous with the rights and profits of business owners, not its traditional meaning of making government work for the common people. ..."
"... But this perversion of language was not as much meant to fool the average Guatemalan or Nicaraguan, who was more likely to grasp the reality behind the word games since he or she saw the cruel facts up close; it was mostly to control the American people who, in the lexicon of Reagan's propagandists, needed to have their perceptions managed. ..."
"... At the time, with Great Communicator Ronald Reagan leading the way, virtually the entire U.S. mainstream media and nearly every national politician hailed the mujahedeen as noble "freedom fighters" but the reality was always much different ..."
"... By the end of the 1980s, the U.S.-Saudi "covert operation" had "succeeded" in driving the Soviet army out of Afghanistan with Kabul's communist regime ultimately overthrown and replaced by the fundamentalist Taliban, who stripped women of their rights and covered up their bodies. The Taliban also provided safe haven for bin Laden and his al-Qaeda terrorist band, which by the 1990s had shifted its sights from Moscow to Washington and New York. ..."
"... Then, America's fear and fury over 9/11 opened the path for the neocons to activate one of their longstanding plans, to invade and occupy Iraq, though it had nothing to do with 9/11. The propaganda machinery was cranked up and again all the "smart" people fell in line. Dissenters were dismissed as "Saddam apologists" or called "traitors." [See Consortiumnews.com's " The Mysterious Why of the Iraq War. "] ..."
"... By fall 2002, the idea of invading Iraq and removing "monster" Saddam Hussein was not just a neocon goal, it was embraced by nearly ever prominent "liberal interventionist" in the United States, including editors and columnists of the New Yorker, the New York Times and virtually every major news outlet. ..."
"... The illegal U.S.-led invasion of Iraq also brushed aside the "legal internationalists" who believed that global agreements, especially prohibitions on aggressive war, were vital to building a less violent planet. ..."
"... Chaos happens to be a strategic goal of the country to which the neocons pledge allegiance: Israel. Chaos and conflict in the ME helps Israel maintain its military superiority and offers the opportunity to expand their undefined borders to encompass the Zionist dream of Eretz Yisrael. ..."
"... What I find odd and interesting is that the neo-Nazis (who are blatantly anti-Semitic) in the Kiev government have found common cause with Jewish oligarchs, Petro Poroshenko (Valtsman) and Igor Kolomoisky. I guess power and money make strange bedfellows. ..."
"... The US is nailed by two prongs of the same disease; Globalism, and a massively-increased Zionism. ..."
"... The two most dangerous countries in the world today are the U.S. neoconed under the influence of American Zionists and I would put Israel, second to none other than the US. And, I would distinguish and separate them from Syria and Iran who are a threat to no one. ..."
"... you have to stop with this Obama vs his Neocon/Liberal Interventionist White House staff. Why are you trying to protect Obama as if he, as President, was dragged "kicking and screaming" into Lybia, Syria, or Ukraine? He seemly clearly in favor of each of these moved just as he was clearly in favor of his drone war in Pakistan and the killing of American citizens. ..."
Special Report: America's neocons, who wield great power inside the U.S. government and media,
endanger the planet by concoctingstrategies inside their heads that ignorereal-world consequences.
Thus, their"regime changes" have unleashed ancient hatreds and spread chaos across the globe, as
Robert Parry explains.
Historically, one of the main threads of U.S. foreign policy was called "realism," that is the
measured application of American power on behalf of definable national interests, with U.S. principles
preached to others but not imposed.
This approach traced back to the early days of the Republic when the first presidents warned of
foreign "entangling alliances" and President John Quincy Adams, who was with his father at the nation's
dawning, explained
in 1821 that while America speaks on behalf of liberty, "she has abstained from interference
in the concerns of others, even when conflict has been for principles to which she clings, as to
the last vital drop that visits the heart.
"Wherever the standard of freedom and independence has been or shall be unfurled, there will her
heart, her benedictions and her prayers be. But she goes not abroad, in search of monsters to destroy."
However, in modern times, foreign policy "realism" slid into an association with a cold calculation
of power, no longer a defense of the Republic and broader national interests but of narrow, well-connected
economic interests. The language of freedom was woven into a banner for greed and plunder. Liberty
justified the imposition of dictatorships on troublesome populations. Instead of searching for monsters
to destroy, U.S. policy often searched for monsters to install.
In the wake of such heartless actions like imposing pliable "pro-business" dictatorships on countries
such as Iran, Guatemala, Congo, Indonesia, Chile and engaging in the bloodbath of Vietnam "realism"
developed a deservedly negative reputation as other supposedly more idealistic foreign policy strategies
gained preeminence.
Some of those approaches essentially turned John Quincy Adams's admonition on its head by asserting
that it is America's duty to search out foreign monsters to destroy. Whether called "neoconservatism"
or "liberal interventionism," this approach openly advocated U.S. interference in the affairs of
other nations and took the sides of people who at least presented themselves as "pro-democracy."
In recent years, as the ranks of the "realists" the likes of George Kennan, Henry Kissinger and
Brent Scowcroft have aged and thinned, the ranks of the neocons and their junior partners, the liberal
interventionists, swelled. Indeed, these "anti-realists" have now grown dominant, touting themselves
as morally superior because they don't just call for human rights, they take out governments that
don't measure up.
The primary distinction between
the neocons and the liberal interventionists has been the centrality of Israel in the neocons'
thinking while their liberal sidekicks put "humanitarianism" at the core of their world view. But
these differences are insignificant, in practice, since the liberal hawks are politically savvy enough
not to hold Israel accountable for its human rights crimes and clever enough to join with the neocons
in easy-to-sell "regime change" strategies toward targeted countries with weak lobbies in Washington.
In those "regime change" cases, there is also a consensus on how to handle the targeted countries:
start with "soft power" from anti-regime propaganda to funding internal opposition groups to economic
sanctions to political destabilization campaigns and, then if operationally necessary and politically
feasible, move to overt military interventions, applying America's extraordinary military clout.
Moral Crusades
These interventions are always dressed up as moral crusades the need to free some population from
the clutches of a U.S.-defined "monster." There usually is some "crisis" in which the "monster" is
threatening "innocent life" and triggering a "responsibility to protect" with the catchy acronym,
"R2P."
But the reality about these "anti-realists" is that their actions, in real life, almost always
inflict severe harm on the country being "rescued." The crusade kills many people innocent and guilty
and the resulting disorder can spread far and wide, like some contagion that cannot be contained.
The neocons and the liberal interventionists have become, in effect, carriers of the deadly disease
called chaos.
And, it has become a very lucrative chaos for the well-connected by advancing the "dark side"
of U.S. foreign policy where lots of money can be made while government secrecy prevents public scrutiny.
As author James Risen describes in his new book, Pay Any Price , a new caste of "oligarchs"
has emerged from the 9/11 "war on terror" - and the various regional wars that it has unpacked -
to amass vast fortunes. He writes:"There is an entire class of wealthy company owners, corporate
executives, and investors who have gotten rich by enabling the American government to turn to the
dark side. The new quiet oligarchs just keep making money. They are the beneficiaries of one of the
largest transfers of wealth from public to private hands in American history." [p. 56]
And the consolidation of this wealth has further cemented the political/media influence of the
"anti-realists," as the new "oligarchs" kick back portions of their taxpayer largesse into think
tanks, political campaigns and media outlets. The neocons and their liberal interventionist pals
now fully dominate the U.S. opinion centers, from the right-wing media to the editorial pages (and
the foreign desks) of many establishment publications, including the Washington Post and the New
York Times.
By contrast, the voices of the remaining "realists" and their current unlikely allies, the anti-war
activists, are rarely heard in the mainstream U.S. media anymore. To the extent that these dissidents
do get to criticize U.S. meddling abroad, they are dismissed as "apologists" for whatever "monster"
is currently in line for the slaughter. And, to the extent they criticize Israel, they are smeared
as "anti-Semitic" and thus banished from respectable society.
Thus, being a "realist" in today's Official Washington requires hiding one's true feelings, much
as was once the case if you were a gay man and you had little choice but to keep your sexual orientation
in the closet by behaving publicly like a heterosexual and surrounding yourself with straight friends.
In many ways, that's what President Barack Obama has done. Though arguably
a "closet realist," Obama staffed his original administration with foreign policy officials acceptable
to the neocons and the liberal interventionists, such as Robert Gates at Defense, Hillary Clinton
at State, Gen. David Petraeus as a top commander in the field.
Even in his second term, the foreign-policy hawks have remained dominant, with people like neocon
Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Victoria Nuland enflaming the crisis in Ukraine
and UN Ambassador Samantha Power, an R2Per, pushing U.S. military intervention in Syria.
A Slow-Motion Catastrophe
I have personally watched today's foreign-policy pattern evolve during my 37 years in Washington
- and it began innocently enough. After the Vietnam War and the disclosures about bloody CIA coups
around the globe, President Jimmy Carter called for human rights to be put at the center of U.S.
foreign policy. His successor, Ronald Reagan, then hijacked the human rights rhetoric while adapting
to it to his anticommunist cause.
Because Reagan's usurpation of human rights language involved support for brutal right-wing
forces, such as the Guatemalan military and the Nicaraguan Contra rebels, the process required an
Orwellian change in what words meant. "Pro-democracy" had to become synonymous with the rights and
profits of business owners, not its traditional meaning of making government work for the common
people.
But this perversion of language was not as much meant to fool the average Guatemalan or Nicaraguan,
who was more likely to grasp the reality behind the word games since he or she saw the cruel facts
up close; it was mostly to control the American people who, in the lexicon of Reagan's propagandists,
needed to have their perceptions managed. [See Consortiumnews.com's "
The Victory of Perception Management. "]
The goal of the young neocons inside the Reagan administration the likes of Elliott Abrams and
Robert Kagan (now Victoria Nuland's husband) was to line up the American public behind Reagan's aggressive
foreign policy, or as the phrase of that time went, to "kick the Vietnam Syndrome," meaning to end
the popular post-Vietnam resistance to more foreign wars.
President George H.W. Bush pronounced this mission accomplished in 1991 after the end of the well-sold
Persian Gulf War, declaring "we've kicked the Vietnam Syndrome once and for all."
By then, the propaganda process had fallen into a predictable pattern. You pick out a target country;
you demonize its leadership; you develop some "themes" that are sure to push American hot buttons,
maybe fictional stories about "throwing babies out of incubators" or the terrifying prospect of "a
mushroom cloud"; and it's always smart to highlight a leader's personal corruption, maybe his "designer
glasses" or "a sauna in his palace."
The point is not that the targeted leader may not be an unsavory character. Frankly, most political
leaders are. Many Western leaders and their Third World allies both historically and currently have
much more blood on their hands than some of the designated "monsters" that the U.S. government has
detected around the world. The key is the image-making.
What makes the process work is the application and amplification of double standards through the
propaganda organs available to the U.S. government. The compliant mainstream American media can be
counted on to look harshly at the behavior of some U.S. "enemy" in Venezuela, Iran, Russia or eastern
Ukraine, but to take a much more kindly view of a U.S.-favored leader from Colombia, Saudi Arabia,
Georgia or western Ukraine.
While it's easy and safe career-wise for a mainstream journalist to accuse a Chavez, an Ahmadinejad,
a Putin or a Yanukovych of pretty much anything, the levels of proof get ratcheted up when it's a
Uribe, a Saudi King Abdullah, a Saakashvili or a Yatsenyuk not to mention a Netanyahu.
The True Dark Side
But here is the dark truth about this "humanitarian" interventionism: it is spinning the world
into an endless cycle of violence. Rather than improving the prospects for human rights and democracy,
it is destroying those goals. While the interventionist strategies have made huge fortunes for well-connected
government contractors and well-placed speculators who profit off chaos, the neocons and their "human
rights" buddies are creating a hell on earth for billions of others, spreading death and destitution.
Take, for example, the beginnings of the Afghan War in the 1980s after the Soviet Union invaded
to protect a communist-led regime that had sought to pull Afghanistan out of the middle ages, including
granting equal rights to women. The United States responded by encouraging Islamic fundamentalism
and arming the barbaric mujahedeen.
At the time, that was considered the smart play because Islamic fundamentalism was seen as a force
that could counter atheistic communism. So, starting with the Carter administration but getting dramatically
ramped up by the Reagan administration, the United States threw in its lot with the extremist Wahhabis
of Saudi Arabia to invest billions of dollars in supporting these Islamist militants who included
one wealthy Saudi named Osama bin Laden.
At the time, with Great Communicator Ronald Reagan leading the way, virtually the entire U.S.
mainstream media and nearly every national politician hailed the mujahedeen as noble "freedom fighters"
but the reality was always much different . [See, for instance, Consortiumnews.com's "
How US Hubris Baited Afghan Trap ."]
By the end of the 1980s, the U.S.-Saudi "covert operation" had "succeeded" in driving the
Soviet army out of Afghanistan with Kabul's communist regime ultimately overthrown and replaced by
the fundamentalist Taliban, who stripped women of their rights and covered up their bodies. The Taliban
also provided safe haven for bin Laden and his al-Qaeda terrorist band, which by the 1990s had shifted
its sights from Moscow to Washington and New York.
Even though the Saudis officially broke with bin Laden after he declared his intentions to attack
the United States, some wealthy Saudis and other Persian Gulf multi-millionaires, who shared bin
Laden's violent form of Islamic fundamentalism, continued to fund him and his terrorists right up
to and beyond al-Qaeda's attacks on 9/11.
Then, America's fear and fury over 9/11 opened the path for the neocons to activate one of
their longstanding plans, to invade and occupy Iraq, though it had nothing to do with 9/11. The propaganda
machinery was cranked up and again all the "smart" people fell in line. Dissenters were dismissed
as "Saddam apologists" or called "traitors." [See Consortiumnews.com's "
The Mysterious Why of the Iraq War. "]
By fall 2002, the idea of invading Iraq and removing "monster" Saddam Hussein was not just
a neocon goal, it was embraced by nearly ever prominent "liberal interventionist" in the United States,
including editors and columnists of the New Yorker, the New York Times and virtually every major
news outlet.
At this point, the "realists" were in near total eclipse, left to grumble futilely or grasp onto
some remaining "relevance" by joining the pack, as Henry Kissinger did. The illegal U.S.-led
invasion of Iraq also brushed aside the "legal internationalists" who believed that global agreements,
especially prohibitions on aggressive war, were vital to building a less violent planet.
... ... ...
Pablo Diablo , January 17, 2015 at 7:06 pm
THANK YOU Robert Parry for all you have done. Money! It's always money. Wake up America. They
gave us Clinton to accomplish what mean-spirited Reagan/Bush couldn't accomplish. And then they
gave us Obama to continue what Bush/Cheney started.
Well put Zachary Smith. Shaking these compromised criminals from their lofty posts and kicking
them to the curb may seem like a monumental task, but the sea tide of change is definitely turning
in our favor. There is much talk about the neocons, Israel, Zionism, and the Lobby's influence
in the US government than ever before. They are everywhere!
http://www.veteransnewsnow.com/2015/01/18/514568obama-to-senators-choose-u-s-over-donors/
Steve D , January 17, 2015 at 8:16 pm
When will the neocons be brought up on crimes against humanity ? May all blowback be brought
down upon them.
This is a good summary, necessarily burdened by the lengthy history of "neocon" madness since
WWII. But of course the wrongful and ill-conceived US interventions are far more numerous even
than those mentioned here.
There will be no rational US foreign or domestic policy until democracy is restored, when the
mass media and elections are protected from the control of the oligarch of economic concentrations
that denies democracy to the people of the United States. This was the great oversight of our
Constitution, because no such economic concentrations existed then, and amendments are desperately
needed to correct this. Without them democracy, and sanity in public policy, are lost forever.
The morally corrosive effects of government propaganda are accepted largely because the population
is accustomed to lies in advertising and all business communications. The people are no longer
outraged that the government does nothing to control business lies and cheating, and it is not
surprising that the parties of bold government lies are the advocates of unregulated business.
But the prospects for reform are grim. Only an era of vast suffering in the US will make the
people turn off their TVs and admit the truth. One cannot wish for the suffering, but anything
to hasten the deposing of oligarchy is an act of the highest patriotism.
I concur. The question is why a large majority of the American people go along with this entire
exercise? And when did it all start? I wrote this in 2009 soon after Obama took office, it still
resonates: Can Obama escape the dominating influence of AIPAC and the American Jewish/Zionist
Israeli lobby?
The exercise of control over elections and mass media began quite early, grew as the US middle
class emerged and had to rely on ever-larger newspapers for policy facts, and as political candidates
relied ever more on purchased publicity and contributions from ever growing businesses seeking
federal favors. By 1898 we had our first media-trumped war ("Remember the Maine") over a falsely
attributed coal-gas explosion on a US warship.
Chet Roman , January 18, 2015 at 2:26 am
"The neocons and the liberal interventionists have become, in effect, carriers of the
deadly disease called chaos."
Chaos happens to be a strategic goal of the country to which the neocons pledge allegiance:
Israel. Chaos and conflict in the ME helps Israel maintain its military superiority and offers
the opportunity to expand their undefined borders to encompass the Zionist dream of Eretz Yisrael.
What I find odd and interesting is that the neo-Nazis (who are blatantly anti-Semitic)
in the Kiev government have found common cause with Jewish oligarchs, Petro Poroshenko (Valtsman)
and Igor Kolomoisky. I guess power and money make strange bedfellows.
The US is nailed by two prongs of the same disease; Globalism, and a massively-increased
Zionism.
Real intellectuals know this. It isn't exactly a conspiracy.
The two most dangerous countries in the world today are the U.S. neoconed under the influence
of American Zionists and I would put Israel, second to none other than the US. And, I would distinguish
and separate them from Syria and Iran who are a threat to no one.
So much for humanitarian causes. Palestine, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria. Why didn't they
just keep on bombing them until every single one was killed in the name of humanity?
It would make about as much humanitarian sense.
Now, let;s see¦. Who is next on the list?
“Abe, bring me that book by the old man " who do we go for next?"
The real question is who will we send to do the job? NATO or the UN? UN troops are better at
rape and pillage, but NATO is much more impressive in the straight out killing line! Both are
cheap and ready to go, and we will not have to do it ourselves.
Tsigantes , January 18, 2015 at 4:02 am
Re your penultimate paragraph, and from a European vantage point, far from 'failing to foresee'
the results, it appears that the neocons understand them full well and feel confidant in their
ability to control them. ISIS is understood here as a US funded and propogandised mercenary army,
with non-muslim participants from all over Europe & Asia. As for the true Wahhabi fundamentalists
one assumes that the logic is that they are contained inside ISIS, while carrying out US foreign
policy goals.
As for ultimate carrots, ie rewarding the fundamentalists, the New Middle East plan unveiled
in 2006 by Condaleeza Rice and Olmert as NATO/ISR policy (not contradicted since then, and clearly
underway) projected the division of Iraq into 3 states, one of which is Islamic State [IS} and
the other Kurdistan. It also projected the division of Pakistan with the new state being Baluchistan.
Thus ISIS and Al Qaeda become client states.
Therefore there is reason to this destructive, illegal madness which has served to destroy
the United States' reputation globally; the reconfiguration of the middle east serves US and Israeli
oil and security interests.
Unfortunately no such plan can be referenced concerning Russia. However events of recent years,
especially 2014 and Charlie Hebdo, have served to reveal the degree to which the EU is US/ISR
neocon dominated, and are absolutely NOT free nations.
re: "What the neocons have constructed through their skilled propaganda is a grim wonderland
where no one foresees the dangers of encouraging Islamist fundamentalism as a geopolitical ploy,
where no one takes heed of the historic hatreds of Sunni and Shiite, where no one suspects that
the U.S. military slaughtering thousands upon thousands of Muslims might provoke a backlash, where
no one thinks about the consequences of overthrowing regimes in unstable regions, where no one
bothers to study the bitter history of a place like Ukraine, and where no one worries about spreading
turmoil to nuclear-armed Russia."
Tsigante , January 18, 2015 at 4:16 am
i would add to my comment above that the majority of world muslims, Sunni & Shiite, are NOT
at loggerheads with each other, live next to each other and are often intermarried. This is a
theological split, like Protestants (no priest=Sunni) vs Catholics (priests=Catholic).
The exception is the 18th c local & extreme Wahhabi sect, which the British empowered when
they created Saudi Arabia. Far from being closer to islamic principles, they are closer to (dare
I say it) barbaric desert Arab practise, overlaid into a local form of Islam.
In the case of Iraq the Sunni-Shiite division was political, put in place by the English again,
when they empowered one group over the other as administrators.
Branko R , January 18, 2015 at 6:24 am
Robert's excellent summary overlooks the wars in the former Yugoslavia (Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina,
Kosovo). The same sorts of unsavory characters were backed and whitewashed, and the same sorts
of humanitarian propaganda were used.
Alan Fendrich , January 18, 2015 at 7:23 am
You write "Israeli war crimes." What Israeli war crimes have there been?
Is not the real crime the Arab regimes crime against humanity? Poisoning their children in their
school curriculum that Jews are dogs? And that killing Jews is good?
Truth , January 18, 2015 at 11:20 am
What Israeli War Crimes?
Wow. You outed yourself right there as a Hasbarite liar.
Zachary Smith , January 18, 2015 at 11:38 am
What Israeli war crimes have there been?
The very best 'spin' I can put on this statement is that you were in a coma during the recent
Israeli mass murder spree in Gaza.
The worst is that you're posting from the basement of a West Bank house on land stolen from
Palestinians. If this is the case, may I suggest you read up on efficiently lying for Holy Israel.
They have published several manuals for enthusiastic amateurs, and here is a link to the latest
one.
It never stops boring our ears this Zionist propaganda. Which "Arabs" are you talking about
you Zionist bigot? Which, Arab Jews, Christians or Muslims? Do you mean the Jewish Arabs who have
historically lived in peace and protection for centuries with the Muslim Arabs before Mongoloids
showed up from Eastern Europe? The ones who live now in the foremost democracy in the world Irahell?
Are they the ones that do not have the right to a minimum wage?
The "Arabs" never referred in their children's school books to Jews. They always without exception
refer to them as Zionist knowing full well that the founders of the "Jewish State" were without
exception atheists.
I predict Zionist will succeed in starting a third world war between Islam and Christianity
on one hand and between Eurasia and the West on the other. You have corrupted the democratic process
in the West and the media belongs to you. Additionally, let us not forget that there is too much
money to be made and national debts to be incurred for Zionist to worry about such an unprecedented
degree of human sacrifice in the name of Moloch.
You know what is a Freudian slip? The manifesto of the Zionist state is to extend itself from
the Nile to the Euphrates and to rule the world from Jerusalem just like a Caliphate. It will
be called, The State of Israel for Iraq and the Levant. I.S.I.L for short. It will never happen
for the children of Moloch.
Israeli veterans have spoken out, describing a degrading culture of abuse and harassment of Palestinian
children in the West Bank and Gaza. A report containing 30 veterans' testimonies details numerous
cases of violence.
I agree the President should come out of the closet. An excellent summary of what I have witnessed
this past half century. To the extent I fail to act to halt the mass murder, I am a silent accomplice
and share in the kharma perpetrated in the name of my country. Never, never, never surrender.
I never thought I would say that about the government I was raised to adore, but it appears populated
by petty tyrants and hucksters. But that is the story, our history, until the Millenials rrach
true majority in a generation. Let's see how the pendulum is swinging then.
Barry , January 19, 2015 at 7:45 pm
Come on, Robert. Overall, this was a great article. However, you have to stop with this
Obama vs his Neocon/Liberal Interventionist White House staff. Why are you trying to protect Obama
as if he, as President, was dragged "kicking and screaming" into Lybia, Syria, or Ukraine? He
seemly clearly in favor of each of these moved just as he was clearly in favor of his drone war
in Pakistan and the killing of American citizens.
"... Economics is a corrupt pseudo-science that gives a pseudo-scientific justification for the
greed and rapacity of One Percenters. Its methodological flaws are glaring. It's time economists went
back to the social science faculty, where they belong. ..."
Our politicians have been brainwashed by neoliberal economists.
These economists produce models that factor-in all the upsides to globalisation, but fail to
model any of the crippling, expensive-to-treat consequences of shutting down entire towns in places
like Michigan or Lancashire.
They assume people live frictionless lives; that when the European ship-building industry moves
to Poland, riveters in Portsmouth can just up-sticks and move to Gdansk with no problem. They
encourage a narrative that implies such an English riveter are lazy if he fails to seize this
opportunity.
(Let's drop a few economists in Gdansk with £100 in their pockets, and see how their families
do.)
Economics is a corrupt pseudo-science that gives a pseudo-scientific justification for
the greed and rapacity of One Percenters. Its methodological flaws are glaring. It's time economists
went back to the social science faculty, where they belong.
"the President cited this NERA study, commissioned by the American Council for Capital Formation,
and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. Why didn't the President rely upon his own experts within the
White House?"
Because his CEA is not yet staffed. The NERA "study":
NERA uses its "model" to forecast that the cost to real GDP by2040 will be a 9% shortfall and
the cost to employment will by 31.6 million jobs. Now that sounds BAD, BAD. But it sort of reminds
me of the kind of "quality analysis" we might expect from the Heritage Foundation. Of course that
is what the American Council for Capital Formation, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce paid NERA
to do.
I learned much reading this about Russia's taxing of its crude oil...you may find it interesting
as well...
Careful though, Irina Slav neglected to mention that Russia never stopped producing as much
oil as it could during OPEC's deal to cut production so this is hardly a balanced article
Putin and the Russian Oligarchs are not going to cut production, Mother Russia (Putin) needs
the cash flow (as do the other OPEC cheaters)
"OPEC Cuts Send Russia's Oil Heartland Into Decline"
By Irina Slav...Jun 03, 2017,...2:00 PM CDT
"Western Siberia is to Russia what the Permian is to the U.S. Well, kind of. Kind of in a sense
that it's one of the longest-producing oil regions and there's still a lot of oil in it. Yet,
thanks to the production cut deal with OPEC, Russian companies have had additional motivation
to move to new territories in the east and the north, where taxes are lower.
In Russia, the older the fields, the higher the taxes operators have to pay. Now that the country
has pledged to continue cutting 300,000 bpd for another nine months, the most obvious choices
for the cut are the mature Western Siberian fields. In the first quarter of 2017, for example,
output at Rosneft's Yugansk field fell by 4.2 percent, Bloomberg reported.
Production at other Western Siberian fields is set for a decline as well, with the daily output
rate from lower-tax deposits in the Caspian Sea, Eastern Siberia, and the North seen to rise to
866,000 bpd by the end of the year, or 74 percent on the year. The shift away from mature fields
to new ones will continue over the medium term, according to BofA analyst Karen Kostanian, as
overall Russian output grows. No wonder, as tax relief on new projects sometimes reaches 90 percent.
Lukoil's output from the Filanovsky field in the Caspian, for instance, is taxed at 15 percent
at a price per barrel of US$50. The average for mature fields is 58.1 percent, in a combination
of mineral resource tax and export duty.
And this is not the end of it: in 2018, the Kremlin will test a new tax regime for the oil
industry as it seeks to maintain production growth and the respective revenues, contributing a
solid chunk of federal budget revenues. The new regime, Deputy Energy Minister Alexei Texler told
Reuters, will first be introduced for a selection of 21 fields with a combined output of 300,000
bpd for a period of five years.
In case the government is happy with the results from the test, the new regime would be expanded
to the whole industry. Hopes are for a substantial increase in output thanks to the new tax regime:
up to 20 percent over the five-year period. These hopes seem to be limited to the Energy Ministry,
however, the Finance Ministry worries that the new regime will make it harder to control the flow
of tax money. The treasury is also against combining the new regime with already existing tax
incentives for the industry.
So, the move away from what Bloomberg calls the oil heartland of the world's top producer is
all but inevitable. It will come at a cost for the state coffers of some US$25 a barrel of Western
Siberian oil, or US$2.7 billion annually, according to a Renaissance Capital analyst, but the
cost will be worth it. The cost would increase, too, if the current output cut arrangement with
OPEC fails to push up prices, which for now is exactly what we are seeing, while the ramp-up in
the U.S. oil heartland continues."
"With enough thrusts pigs can fly. It is just dangerous to stand were they are going to land."
This quote is perfectly applicable to OPEC and Russia oil production now.
Neglecting maintenances and using "in fill" drilling just shorten the life of the traditional
oil fields. And new large oil fields are difficult to come by.
My impression is that most of "cuts" in production by Russia and OPEC are "forced moves". Production
was declining from mid 2016 when old investment were already all put into production and few new
investments were made since late 2014.
If we assume the lag period of two years, than in mid 2018 we will feel the results of decisions
to cut investments made in 2016.
In this situation announcing cuts allow to save face.
The net result is the same -- the oil price should rise to the level when it is economical
to develop "more expensive oil" (deep see drilling, Arctic oil and such) as replacement rate in
traditional fields is insufficient to maintain the production.
As long as The US government allow shale companies to generate junk bonds (which will never
be repaid representing kind of hidden subsidy) along with "subprime oil", shale can slightly compensate
the decline in production, but my impression is that this card was already played. Despite all
hoopla from WSJ and other major MSM.
The fact that oil production for some time was artificially kept flat or slightly rising is
strange and might be politically motivated (Saudi) which put other producers in situation when
they were force to follow Saudi lead or lose customers. China played Russians against Saudi pretty
well and got what they want at lower prices.
Those "intensification of production" were short term measures which in a long run are detrimental
to old oil fields output.
They might even lessen the total amount of oil that can be extracted from a given field.
The key question here is: Does Russian oil firms has the amount of money needed to maintain
production on the current level (at the current oil price levels ) or not.
Obama has a chance to move the US personal fleet to hybrid and more economical cars. He lost
this chance. SUV is now dominant type of personal cars int he USA, the trend opposite to what
it should be. Even hybrid SUVs like RAV4 hybrid get only around 33 miles highway, less in city
traffic.
Transition to Prius type cars (with their around 50 miles per gallon) would allow US consumers
to save almost half of oil spend on personal transportation (which probably represent around 60%
of total US consumption
http://needtoknow.nas.edu/energy/energy-use/transportation/
)
Racism if fake reason because the same voters managed somehow to elect Obama.
Notable quotes:
"... "...despite significant evidence that Trump voters were largely driven by racism." This is one of two main Dems "Monday morning quarterbacking" storylines. I am not so sure. I think the most significant factor in the recent election was voters rejection of neoliberal establishment and, specifically, neoliberal globalization, that destroyed American jobs. In other words, people voted by-and-large not "for" but "against". That's why Trump have won. ..."
"...despite significant evidence that Trump voters were largely driven by racism." This is
one of two main Dems "Monday morning quarterbacking" storylines. I am not so sure. I think the
most significant factor in the recent election was voters rejection of neoliberal establishment
and, specifically, neoliberal globalization, that destroyed American jobs. In other words, people
voted by-and-large not "for" but "against". That's why Trump have won.
"... During his primary campaign against Hillary Clinton, Senator Bernie Sanders, a self-proclaimed socialist, lived up to the grand Democratic tradition of favoring the underdog at the expense of the rich. He proposed hammering the affluent by raising taxes in the amount of $15.3 trillion over ten years. New revenues would finance about half the cost of a $33.3 trillion boost in social spending ..."
"... Trouble brews when a deeply held commitment to the underdog comes into conflict with the self-interested pocketbook and lifestyle concerns of the upper middle class. ..."
"... In rhetoric reminiscent of Franklin Delano Roosevelt and Harry Truman, Sanders declared: We must send a message to the billionaire class: "you can't have it all." You can't get huge tax breaks while children in this country go hungry.But Sanders spoke to the Democratic Party of 2016, not the Democratic Party of the Great Depression. ..."
"... In days past, a proposal to slam the rich to reward the working and middle classes meant hitting Republicans to benefit Democrats. ..."
"... Even as recently as 1976, according to data from American National Election Studies, the most affluent voters, the top 5 percent, were solidly in the Republican camp, 77-23. Those in the bottom third of the income distribution were solidly Democratic, 64-36. ..."
"... In the 2016 election, the economic elite was essentially half Democratic, according to exit polls: Those in the top 10 percent of the income distribution voted 47 percent for Clinton and 46 percent for Trump. Half the voters Sanders would hit hardest are members of the party from which he sought the nomination. ..."
Has the Democratic Party Gotten Too Rich for Its Own Good?
by Thomas B. Edsall
JUNE 1, 2017
During his primary campaign against Hillary
Clinton, Senator Bernie Sanders, a self-proclaimed
socialist, lived up to the grand Democratic tradition of
favoring the underdog at the expense of the rich. He
proposed hammering the affluent by raising taxes in the
amount of $15.3 trillion over ten years. New revenues
would finance about half the cost of a $33.3 trillion
boost in social spending
The Sanders tax-and-spending plan throws into sharp
relief the problem that the changing demographic makeup of
the Democratic coalition creates for party leaders.
Trouble brews when a deeply held commitment to the
underdog comes into conflict with the self-interested
pocketbook and lifestyle concerns of the upper middle
class.
The nonpartisan Tax Policy Center found that under the
Sanders plan, a married couple filing jointly with an
income below $10,650 would continue to pay no income tax;
everyone else would pay higher taxes. Those in the second
quintile would pay an additional $1,625 and those in the
middle quintile would see their income tax liability
increase by $4,692. Those in the top quintile would pay
$42,719 more.
Higher up the ladder, the tax increase would grow to
$130,275 for those in the top 5 percent, to $525,365 for
those in the top one percent and to $3.1 million for the
top 0.1 percent.
When the additional revenues from the Sanders tax hike
are subtracted from the additional spending his proposals
would demand, the net result is an $18.1 trillion increase
in the national debt over 10 years, according to the
center.
In rhetoric reminiscent of Franklin Delano
Roosevelt and Harry Truman, Sanders declared: We must send
a message to the billionaire class: "you can't have it
all." You can't get huge tax breaks while children in this
country go hungry.But Sanders spoke to the Democratic
Party of 2016, not the Democratic Party of the Great
Depression.
In days past, a proposal to slam the rich to reward
the working and middle classes meant hitting Republicans
to benefit Democrats.
Even as recently as 1976, according to data from
American National Election Studies, the most affluent
voters, the top 5 percent, were solidly in the Republican
camp, 77-23. Those in the bottom third of the income
distribution were solidly Democratic, 64-36.
In other words, 41 years ago, the year Jimmy Carter won
the presidency, the Sanders proposal would have made
political sense.
But what about now?
In the 2016 election, the economic elite was
essentially half Democratic, according to exit polls:
Those in the top 10 percent of the income distribution
voted 47 percent for Clinton and 46 percent for Trump.
Half the voters Sanders would hit hardest are members of
the party from which he sought the nomination.
The problem for the Democratic Party is that "them" has
become "us."
...
As the Democratic elite and the Democratic electorate
as a whole become increasingly well educated and affluent,
the party faces a crucial question. Can it maintain its
crucial role as the representative of the least powerful,
the marginalized, the most oppressed, many of whom belong
to disadvantaged racial and ethnic minority groups - those
on the bottom rungs of the socioeconomic ladder?
This will be no easy task. In 2016, for the first time
in the party's history, a majority of voters (54.2
percent) who cast Democratic ballots for president had
college degrees. Clinton won all 15 of the states with the
highest percentage of college graduates.
The steady loss of Democratic support in the white
working class, culminating in Trump's Electoral College
victory on the backs of these white voters, must
inevitably send a loud and clear signal to the Democratic
elite: The more the party abandons the moral imperative to
represent the interests of the less well off of all races
and ethnicities, the more it risks a repetition of the
electoral disaster of 2016 in 2018, 2020 and beyond.
"... Nobody would argue I think that when 1935 Congress passed the NLRA(a) it consciously left criminal prosecution of union busting blank because it desired states to individually take that up in their localities. Conversely, I don't think anybody thinks Congress deliberately left out criminal sanctions because it objected to such. ..."
"... I'm thinking that if we cannot get (would be) progressive academics, journalists, politicians to get off their duffs about making union busting a felony -- that maybe unions can start putting the question on the ballot wherever that can be done. ..."
NYT's Nate Cohn: "Just as Mr. Obama's team caricatured Mr.
Romney, Mr. Trump caricatured Mrs. Clinton as a tool of Wall
Street" ... "At every point of the race, Mr. Trump was doing
better among white voters without a college degree than Mitt
Romney did in 2012 - by a wide margin.
America should feel perfectly free to rebuild labor union
density one state at a time -- making union busting a felony.
Republicans will have no place to hide.
[CUT-AND-PASTE]
Nobody would argue I think that when 1935 Congress passed
the NLRA(a) it consciously left criminal prosecution of union
busting blank because it desired states to individually take
that up in their localities. Conversely, I don't think
anybody thinks Congress deliberately left out criminal
sanctions because it objected to such.
Congress left criminal sanctions blank in US labor law
because it thought it had done enough. States disagree?
States are perfectly free to fill in the blanks protecting
not just union organizing but any kind of collective
bargaining more generally -- without worrying about federal
preemption. Don't see why even Trump USC judge would find
fault with that.
I'm thinking that if we cannot get (would be) progressive
academics, journalists, politicians to get off their duffs
about making union busting a felony -- that maybe unions can
start putting the question on the ballot wherever that can be
done.
Mostly a matter of overcoming inertia and proceeding to
become like every other modern democracy on every issue
(wages, medical, education and more). That all starts with
upending the power equation -- political as well as economic:
rebuilding union density is the alpha and omega of doing
that.
"... Nobody should have any doubts about the determination of this former Rothschild banker to carry out his mission, which is none other than to be the Margaret Thatcher of France. In any case, if he was chosen for this role, it is precisely because he has been trained for decades in the most absolute discipline and because he does not seem to have any particular emotional ties with his own country. It is not a professional politician but a man of "the markets" and of Finance who has come to govern France. If there is anyone who is determined to display as much harshness as is necessary and to take as many risks as are necessary, that person is Macron. ..."
"... Macron's appearance, the day that he won the election, was flawless. Even his arrogance evidently served as a reminder to the French that he came from the class that is destined to govern. His speech was a series of generalities, which could have been delivered a century in the past or a century in the future. Except at one point: where he skewered via the terms "extremisms" the Left and the far Right, serving notice that his aim was war against them. ..."
"... The banker-President has come to disencumber the country of all of this type of thing. His amazing success: entering politics and becoming President of France within three years, is a reflection of the massive power, influence and potential of finance capital, the Empire of Davos, in our era. ..."
"... This is probably Finance Capital's "Plan B". But after the election of Trump and the Brexit there came the Dutch, and now the French, elections, to curb (temporarily?) its impetus. ..."
"... Macron's victory gives the EU a reprieve, staving off the likelihood of a sudden death, even though it would be a mistake for anyone to assume that its crisis has been overcome. ..."
"... In the final analysis Macron probably won because France did not trust (this time) a lady of the far right, which seemed dangerous to it, but also because it felt the Left is not yet ready. This delay in the manifestation of the crisis will most probably contribute to its revealing itself more powerfully at a certain point. ..."
"... This is ensured in any case by today's European elites, who are more than ever dependent on, and guided by Finance and so persist in precisely the policies that caused the crisis, the discontent and the rebellion. ..."
Macron "scooped the pool and decamped" in the second round of the French presidential elections,
scoring an easy victory over Marine Le Pen. Her performance was in any case so bad in the last week
of the pre-election campaign that it led some commentators to the conclusion that the National Front
did not want to be required to govern.
We have to wait and see if Macron consolidates his victory in the parliamentary elections also.
But already both the Socialist Party and the Right, the two traditional parties of power in the country,
project a picture of total disintegration and decay, with their cadres leaping into the water like
rodents from a sinking ship and heading for the safety of Macron.
Consummating the humiliation of France's political class, former "socialist" Prime Minister Manuel
Valls pronounced the Socialist Party dead and affirmed his transposition to the party of Macron,
for which he said he intended to be a parliamentary candidate. Only to receive the public answer
from the party of his former Minister that he must submit his application through the Internet, following
the procedures applicable for everyone. Finally they told him that his services are not required.
But even if in the parliamentary elections he achieves the institutional omnipotence that is his
dream, Macron and his ideas remain isolated and espoused by a minority in French society, as indicated
by analysis of the results of the first and second round of the presidential elections. The capture
of the GS & M factory by its workers, who threaten to blow it up as these lines are being written,
is a reminder that the tasks the new President has been set, or has set himself, will not be in any
way easy.
A man of the "Markets" and of "Finance"
Nobody should have any doubts about the determination of this former Rothschild banker to carry
out his mission, which is none other than to be the Margaret Thatcher of France. In any case, if
he was chosen for this role, it is precisely because he has been trained for decades in the most
absolute discipline and because he does not seem to have any particular emotional ties with his own
country. It is not a professional politician but a man of "the markets" and of Finance who has come
to govern France. If there is anyone who is determined to display as much harshness as is necessary
and to take as many risks as are necessary, that person is Macron.
His hagiographers are now proliferating in the French press at the speed of mushrooms in the forest
after rain. Many would like to liken him to Napoleon. Aware, though, that they would run the risk
of being ridiculed, they confine themselves to reminders that since the Emperor the country has never
had such a young ruler.
But this Napoleon does not plan to start any war with the monarchs of Europe, who linked themselves
together, funded – it is said – by Rothschild, to strangle revolutionary France. His campaigns will
be on the domestic front, like those of Thiers. Recall also that the Paris Commune emerged from the
refusal of the people of France to accept their country's capitulation to Germany.
Macron's appearance, the day that he won the election, was flawless. Even his arrogance evidently
served as a reminder to the French that he came from the class that is destined to govern. His speech
was a series of generalities, which could have been delivered a century in the past or a century
in the future. Except at one point: where he skewered via the terms "extremisms" the Left and the
far Right, serving notice that his aim was war against them.
The only half-way human spontaneous element of M. Macron on his day of victory was at the end
of celebrations, his embarrassed laugh when he was the only one in the group not to sing the Marseillaise.
Either he did not know the words or he could not sing them.
If there is one song that the ruling class of France hates it is the country's national anthem,
summoning the citizenry "to arms". And the same applies for the national rallying emblem
"Liberté,
égalité, fraternité."
The banker-President has come to disencumber the country of all of this type of thing. His amazing
success: entering politics and becoming President of France within three years, is a reflection of
the massive power, influence and potential of finance capital, the Empire of Davos, in our era.
At the international level, Macron's victory discontinues, at least temporarily, the string of
successes of the most radical wing of the Western establishment which, persuaded that Fukuyama-type
"benign globalization" is not making much progress, decided to place its bets on the "Huntington
model" of the war of civilizations.
This is probably Finance Capital's "Plan B". But after the election of Trump and the Brexit there
came the Dutch, and now the French, elections, to curb (temporarily?) its impetus.
Macron's victory gives the EU a reprieve, staving off the likelihood of a sudden death, even though
it would be a mistake for anyone to assume that its crisis has been overcome.
And how could it overcome it when the predominant political forces on the continent, Berlin and
the Commission, persist with insouciance of a Marie Antoinette, in the same policies of administering
to the patient the medicine that is killing him.
A minority president
The new president was elected by a minority of French voters in absolute terms and many who voted
for him did not endorse his program but wanted to block Le Pen.
* In contrast to Chirac, who won 82% of the vote against Jean-Marie Le Pen in 2002, Macron
obtained only 65%.
* For the first time since 1969 participation in the second round smaller (by 3%) than in the
first.
* Τhe 12% figure for spoiled or blank ballots was an absolute record for the Fifth Republic
(in 2012 it was 5.8%)
* 42% of those with the right to vote supported Macron and of those, according to public opinion
polls, only 55% agreed with his ideas.
The results of the first round are genuinely representative of the political preferences of the
French, half of whom voted for political forces opposed to the European Union in its present form.
If we factor in the votes for "La France Insoumise", Mélenchon, the left-wing Socialist Hamon
and the two Trotskyist candidates, we see that they account for 27% of the votes in the first round,
slightly more than the proportion of votes that went to the far right and the anti-systemic Right
Gaullists of Dupon-Aignan. Even if we do not count Hamon, we are still speaking of more than 50%
"anti-systemic" votes, in a European country of central importance.
Hamon, remember, supported policies which, if implemented, would have led to clashes with Brussels.
The reason that we include him in an intermediate category is that he was clearly unwilling to proceed
to a break with the EU for the sake of imposing them.
In other words 50-55% of voters favor "antisystemic" parties, whether of the Left, the Right or
the extreme Right.
55% was also the percentage of the French who voted against the draft European Constitutional
Treaty (in essence the Maastricht structure) in the 2005 referendum. But at that time there were
no political subjects in France to articulate this "No". And the deep structural economic crisis
of 2008 had not yet broken.
France became the second country in the EU, after Greece, where the majority of citizens voted
for parties declaring themselves to be "antisystemic". Confirming that we are in a situation of profound
and intensifying structural, not cyclical, crisis of Western capitalism and its political system,
of a depth, though not of an intensity, comparable to that of the 1929 crisis.
As occurred in the 1930s, the crisis tends to generate radical political subjects on the left
and the far right, particularly in relatively stronger countries such as France, Britain and the
United States, which can more easily imagine relying on their own forces. In weaker countries radicalization
has manifested itself mainly on the Left, as with SYRIZA and PODEMOS.
A geopolitical Weimar
Not only are there significant structural similarities between the socio-political crisis of today's
Europe and that of the Weimar Republic (1919-33) in interwar Germany. Geopolitically today Europe
is also reminiscent of the 1930s and early 1940s . By all indications it is under German hegemony,
with only two countries at the opposite extremes challenging the desiderata of Berlin: Putin's Russia
to the east, obliged almost against its will to resist the West. And to the west Britain, whose ruling
class dreams of a more powerful role for London, for the benefit always of the rising "Empire of
Finance" and the USA.
Italy comes over as the perennial opportunist and vacillator, as in the time of Mussolini, prior
to his final decision to side with Hitler. Poland reminds us in some ways of Pilsudski's heyday.
Spain seems to have withdrawn into its own peninsula, as it did then. A special case on the European
periphery is Turkey, which is bargaining for its international position, not to mention another non-European
country, which did not exist in the interwar period, Israel, but exerts massive influence over European,
and even more so Mediterranean, developments.
Of course "German hegemony" over Europe always remains under the supervision of Finance, of the
IMF, of the USA and NATO, which take care from time to time to remind Berlin of the limits of the
permissible, and to impose them.
France has for some time positioned itself in a stance of submission and subordination to Germany,
somewhat reminiscent – naturally with all due allowances for the very different conditions – of the
Vichy regime of General Petain.
France is now , mutandis mutandis , in the position Germany was towards the victors of
the First World War. This is why there is a potential for developing both a leftist radical and a
far right answer, as happened with Germany in the intrawar period, when it vacillated between the
Left and Hitler, ending with the Nazis, given the incompetence and betrayal of both German Social
Democrats and Communists.
France, Germany and the EU
In Berlin signs of relief greeted the election of Macron in preference to Le Pen. They were soon
followed, however, by warnings both from Germany and from the Brussels Commission to the newly elected
President not to expect relaxation of "fiscal discipline".
Macron has the support of the "International of Finance", of which he is any case a representative.
But despite the fact that Berlin allied itself with this "International" to impose its priorities
on Europe, the German Right has no desire to expend the German surpluses on assisting its allies
or the revival of the European and international economy, despite the fact that Mr. Gabriel (but
not Mr. Schulz) and certain Green politicians are beginning to flirt with the idea, judging that
the maintenance of German hegemony requires somewhat greater flexibility.
It remains to be seen what Macron is going to do, given that he must on the one hand confront
a very real, albeit dissimulated, "civilized" German nationalism and on the other prepare to proceed
with the demolition of labour law in his own country.
The resurrection of the Left
France is a country that has made ten revolutions in two centuries. From the Popular Front to
the post-war predominance of the Communist Party, from the Trotskyists' struggle for the Algerian
Revolution up to May 1968 and the Socialist Party's electoral victory in 1981, the Left has set its
seal on the country's history.
Many believed that this tradition has died, along with the distinction between Left and Right,
with the total capitulation of the Socialist Party to neoliberalism, in conditions of progressive
cultural decline and "Americanization". The traditional socialist culture of the popular classes
survived, but in a state of perennial defensiveness, without ideological-political representatives
or a presence in the media. What remained of social revolt began to emigrate to the far right, the
National Front of Marine Le Pen.
Until the underlying social demand for a true, authentic left met up with the political drive
of Mélenchon and a miracle, a resurrection, occurred, a Left was born that has some connection with
its name.
Mélenchon's result in the first round must be seen as historic. It brings to a close the era of
Socialist Party hegemony that opened with the Epinay congress in 1971, a development analogous to
SYRIZA's eclipse of PASOK.
There is nothing accidental about this result for Mélenchon. It reflects the enormous demand in
all of the Western world for an authentic Left wing. A recent poll showed that 45% of American youth
would vote socialist and 21% communist, although socialists and communists are almost non-existent
in the US (or perhaps also because they are non-existent!). A few days ago a majority of British
people opted in opinion polls for the Leftist electoral program of the Labour Party, which provides
for renationalization of the railways, the Post Office and water, with corresponding measures to
that effect.
It appears to have been pre-planned from the outset that the electoral game in France would go
the way it went, with a match between Macron and Le Pen. Only against Le Pen was Macron assured of
victory. Only against the Macron-Rothschild and deploying every dissident element in her arsenal
could Le Pen have any hope of attaining credibility.
Mélenchon's performance, challenging Le Pen's monopoly over expression of social dissent and revolt,
changed the situational data. And we cannot know what would have happened if the terrorist attack
had not taken place on the eve of the first round, strengthening Macron, stabilizing Fillon and assisting
with exclusion of Mélenchon.
"La France Insoumise" won more than three times as many votes as the Socialist candidate. Its
rise has been as spectacular as that of SYRIZA, Corbyn and Sanders. Of course getting off to a very
good start by no means ensures that the sequel will be as propitious. Problems frequently arise in
the next stage as the tragic experience of the Greek betrayal and disaster has already amply proven.
In the case of France the problems emerged immediately with the sectarianism and the inability
of the French Left as a whole to coalesce for the parliamentary elections. Given France's super-majoritarian,
two-round, profoundly undemocratic electoral system, this failure may have adverse consequences when
it comes to the final number of left-wing members in parliament.
In the final analysis Macron probably won because France did not trust (this time) a lady of the
far right, which seemed dangerous to it, but also because it felt the Left is not yet ready. This
delay in the manifestation of the crisis will most probably contribute to its revealing itself more
powerfully at a certain point.
This is ensured in any case by today's European elites, who are more than ever dependent on, and
guided by Finance and so persist in precisely the policies that caused the crisis, the discontent
and the rebellion.
Dimitris Konstantakopoulos is a journalist and writer, former Secretary of the Independent
Citizens Movement, former member SYRIZA's Central Committee, current editorial board member of the
international magazine Utopia Review, ex-chief of the Greek Press Agency office in Moscow, formerly
served as Prime Minister Andreas Papandreou's adviser in East-West relations and arms control.
"... Of course part of the point of 401(k) and similar plans is to "align" workers with the company and companies in general, aside from paying them in stock rather than cash. I suspect it works more so than it doesn't, overall. ..."
"... Sarcasm or satire, yes. I'm not claiming that the narrative is "correct", but that it exists. Surely you must have heard of "alignment" between shareholders and employees. Usually used to justify large stock grants to executives, but also applicable more broadly. ..."
"... And in the case of vesting, (3) employees are supposedly reluctant to "leave money on the table" by quitting before the stock is vested. This must work in aggregate or companies wouldn't do this. ..."
"... Honestly cm, I have not heard about the alignment between shareholders and employees. That doesn't mean it doesn't exist, I realize that. ..."
"... I don't have any stats to cite but I would say that is ridiculous. I would say that almost all people who are characterized as working class make their income through their labor. Not from some stock ownership. ..."
"... It is supposedly common for startups to pay below-market (compared to established companies) to their employees, with the promise of appreciation of stock grants after an IPO/acquisition. Usually that's a bad deal for most employees, as the IPO may not happen, or when it happens, their stock has been heavily diluted. ..."
"... In established companies, stock-based compensation can be more substantial for managerial or professional staff, but not life-changing - e.g. you may get a 5-20% upgrade on your salary depending on how important you are considered, which is nice, but it will not change the fact that you still have to show up for work every day. ..."
It is a commentary on a narrative. Of course part of the point of 401(k) and similar plans
is to "align" workers with the company and companies in general, aside from paying them in stock
rather than cash. I suspect it works more so than it doesn't, overall.
Sarcasm or satire, yes. I'm not claiming that the narrative is "correct", but that it exists.
Surely you must have heard of "alignment" between shareholders and employees. Usually used to
justify large stock grants to executives, but also applicable more broadly.
Companies have several programs: ESPP (employees can buy a limited amount of company stock
at a 15% discount), 401(k) retirement accounts that may contain company stock or other investment
funds, stock and stock option grants (employees are not buying the stock but get it as part of
a regular or retention bonus program, usually with vesting - commonly your grant will vest over
4 years).
The idea behind all programs involving company stock is (1) disbursing stock is usually cheaper
to the company than cash, for the same nominal amount - for large programs where administration
overhead is amortized, (2) employees are supposedly "incentivized" to act to increase the stock
price.
The latter is believable at higher management levels, for lower level employees it is supposed
to increase their motivation to put business priorities before their own, how much it works is
anybody's guess.
And in the case of vesting, (3) employees are supposedly reluctant to "leave money on the
table" by quitting before the stock is vested. This must work in aggregate or companies wouldn't
do this.
If somebody absolutely wants to quit because of a bad situation or a sufficiently compelling
offer, they will. But it raises the bar. Also I have heard about companies sufficiently interested
in hiring somebody with "handcuffs" offering compensation, i.e. effectively buying out your unvested
stock (or replacing it with their own extra grant).
Honestly cm, I have not heard about the alignment between shareholders and employees. That
doesn't mean it doesn't exist, I realize that.
Regardless, I would want to see a bunch of stats that showed that workers were primarily (or
"predominately" was the actual word used) stock holders and that they derive a meaningful part
of their yearly income through that ownership while they are working.
I don't have any stats to cite but I would say that is ridiculous. I would say that almost
all people who are characterized as working class make their income through their labor. Not from
some stock ownership.
I am not claiming that workers are primarily stockholders. I am claiming that companies have
programs to issue, or sell stock at a discount, or match 401(k) contributions up to a limit (in
all applicable cases with our without vesting) to their employees. 401(k) and ESPP probably have
to be offered to everybody, stock grants are usually selective. (Probably restricted by grade
level and job function.)
The primary motivations for companies are that stock is usually cheaper for them than cash,
and the retention effect of vesting. Employee alignment with the stock price is also a narrative,
but it is not clear to me who believes it.
Are you disputing that companies are interested in pushing narratives of their labor relations
that are beyond just "you work here and we pay you", and are in fact doing this?
It is supposedly common for startups to pay below-market (compared to established companies)
to their employees, with the promise of appreciation of stock grants after an IPO/acquisition.
Usually that's a bad deal for most employees, as the IPO may not happen, or when it happens, their
stock has been heavily diluted.
In established companies, stock-based compensation can be more substantial for managerial
or professional staff, but not life-changing - e.g. you may get a 5-20% upgrade on your salary
depending on how important you are considered, which is nice, but it will not change the fact
that you still have to show up for work every day.
Apt. The best representative of the controling force of
the financial sector is the ECB. It is able to buy
financial assets with the stroke of keys on a computer but
someone, somehow also made sure the publics' governments
cannot di thus even though it is the publics' governments
who maintain the laws, enforcement mechanisms,
infrastructures for the markets, and social securities
that benefit those who trade among the financial trading
marketplaces.
Europe needs even more that the US to
watch this. A new polity comes to mind for me, returning
control to the people (catchy phrase, I just made it up,
call it a Trump_vs_deep_state).
To celebrate Memorial Day here is my
impression of MF, Milton Friedmann :
The Pilkington process of production of soda-lime
float-glass requires extremely high temperatures. The
process takes some time to cool down and turn off, days to
warm back up for more process. In other words, the factory
is geared to continuous production at steady velocity thus
requires constant market for the product.
Need for constant output leads to the convention of
middle-man contracts from middle-man who agrees to buy
product at same volume for month after month.
The middle-man's sales vary month over month but his
inventory grows or shrinks from the steady contracted
inflow from factory. In short, the inventory fluctuates
not from inflow but only from fluctuations in outflow.
Outflow is controlled by price adjustments to whatever
volume the market will bear. Price depend only on customer
demand not supply fluctuations.
The middle-man dumps inventory by dropping the price
but builds inventory by raising price. When he has
inflationary expectations he hoards inventory in hopes of
selling later at higher price.
When he has deflationary expectations to avoid future
drop in profit margin he dumps inventory quickly using
price incentives.
In other words, deflationary expectations accelerates
his M2V, but inflationary expectations decelerates his
money stock velocity.
His customers have the liquidity to buy more during
deflation, lower prices. They buy less during high prices,
inflation.
This same mechanism of expectations controls many other
assembly line industries where steady output of production
owns maximum economy of scale.
Exploitation is an outcome. A nebulous description of
the status quo. I suggest we are talking about moving
people toward slavery.
I was thinking today, since
it is in fact, Memorial Day and, according to Wickapedia :
"Memorial Day is a federal holiday in the United States
for remembering the people who died while serving in the
country's armed forces.[1]".
This is not what they fought and died for. They fought
and died for an inclusive society with abundant
opportunity for their children and, for themselves.
It is shameful that we are honoring our war dead,
today. Like the last 50 years, when Ronny Reagan, draft
dodger, took over.
"... Almost three and a half years ago, I published a post about Richard Lipsey's paper "The Phillips Curve and the Tyranny of an Assumed Unique Macro Equilibrium. ..."
"... One important early post-WWII debate, which took place particularly in the UK, concerned the demand and inflationary pressures at which it was best to run the economy. The context for this debate was provided by early Keynesian theory with its absence of a unique full-employment equilibrium and its mainly forgotten, but still relevant, microeconomic underpinnings. The original Phillips Curve was highly relevant to this debate. ..."
Almost three and a half years ago, I published a
post about Richard Lipsey's paper "The Phillips Curve and the Tyranny of an Assumed Unique Macro
Equilibrium." The paper originally presented at the 2013 meeting of the History of Econmics
Society has just been published in the Journal of the History of Economic Thought , with a
slightly revised title "
The Phillips Curve and an Assumed Unique Macroeconomic Equilibrium in Historical Context ." The
abstract of the revised published version of the paper is different from the earlier abstract included
in my 2013 post. Here is the new abstract.
An early post-WWII debate concerned the most desirable demand and inflationary pressures at
which to run the economy. Context was provided by Keynesian theory devoid of a full employment
equilibrium and containing its mainly forgotten, but still relevant, microeconomic underpinnings.
A major input came with the estimates provided by the original Phillips curve. The debate seemed
to be rendered obsolete by the curve's expectations-augmented version with its natural rate of
unemployment, and associated unique equilibrium GDP, as the only values consistent with stable
inflation. The current behavior of economies with the successful inflation targeting is inconsistent
with this natural-rate view, but is consistent with evolutionary theory in which economies have
a wide range of GDP-compatible stable inflation. Now the early post-WWII debates are seen not
to be as misguided as they appeared to be when economists came to accept the assumptions implicit
in the expectations-augmented Phillips curve.
Publication of Lipsey's article nicely coincides with Roger Farmer's new book
Prosperity for All which I discussed in my
previous
post . A key point that Roger makes is that the assumption of a unique equilibrium which underlies
modern macroeconomics and the vertical long-run Phillips Curve is neither theoretically compelling
nor consistent with the empirical evidence. Lipsey's article powerfully reinforces those arguments.
Access to Lipsey's article is gated on the JHET website, so in addition to the abstract, I will quote
the introduction and a couple of paragraphs from the conclusion.
One important early post-WWII debate, which took place particularly in the UK, concerned
the demand and inflationary pressures at which it was best to run the economy. The context for
this debate was provided by early Keynesian theory with its absence of a unique full-employment
equilibrium and its mainly forgotten, but still relevant, microeconomic underpinnings. The original
Phillips Curve was highly relevant to this debate.
All this changed, however, with the introduction of the expectations-augmented version
of the curve with its natural rate of unemployment, and associated unique equilibrium GDP, as
the only values consistent with a stable inflation rate. This new view of the economy found easy
acceptance partly because most economists seem to feel deeply in their guts - and their training
predisposes them to do so - that the economy must have a unique equilibrium to which market forces
inevitably propel it, even if the approach is sometimes, as some believe, painfully slow.
The current behavior of economies with successful inflation targeting is inconsistent with
the existence of a unique non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) but is consistent
with evolutionary theory in which the economy is constantly evolving in the face of path-dependent,
endogenously generated, technological change, and has a wide range of unemployment and GDP over
which the inflation rate is stable. This view explains what otherwise seems mysterious in the
recent experience of many economies and makes the early post-WWII debates not seem as silly as
they appeared to be when economists came to accept the assumption of a perfectly inelastic, long-run
Phillips curve located at the unique equilibrium level of unemployment. One thing that stands
in the way of accepting this view, however, the tyranny of the generally accepted assumption of
a unique, self-sustaining macroeconomic equilibrium.
This paper covers some of the key events in the theory concerning, and the experience of, the
economy's behavior with respect to inflation and unemployment over the post-WWII period. The stage
is set by the pressure-of-demand debate in the 1950s and the place that the simple Phillips curve
came to play in it. The action begins with the introduction of the expectations-augmented Phillips
curve and the acceptance by most Keynesians of its implication of a unique, self-sustaining macro
equilibrium. This view seemed not inconsistent with the facts of inflation and unemployment until
the mid-1990s, when the successful adoption of inflation targeting made it inconsistent with the
facts. An alternative view is proposed, on that is capable of explaining current macro behavior
and reinstates the relevance of the early pressure-of-demand debate. (pp. 415-16).
In reviewing the evidence that stable inflation is consistent with a range of unemployment rates,
Lipsey generalizes the concept of a unique NAIRU to a non-accelerating-inflation band of unemployment
(NAIBU) within which multiple rates of unemployment are consistent with a basically stable expected
rate of inflation. In an interesting footnote, Lipsey addresses a possible argument against the relevance
of the empirical evidence for policy makers based on the Lucas critique.
Some might raise the Lucas critique here, arguing that one finds the NAIBU in the data because
policymakers are credibly concerned only with inflation. As soon as policymakers made use of the
NAIBU, the whole unemployment-inflation relation that has been seen since the mid-1990s might
change or break. For example, unions, particularly in the European Union, where they are typically
more powerful than in North America, might alter their behavior once they became aware that the
central bank was actually targeting employment levels directly and appeared to have the power
to do so. If so, the Bank would have to establish that its priorities were lexicographically ordered
with control of inflation paramount so that any level-of-activity target would be quickly dropped
whenever inflation threatened to go outside of the target bands. (pp. 426-27)
I would just mention in this context that in
this 2013
post about the Lucas critique, I pointed out that in the paper in which Lucas articulated his
critique, he assumed that the only possible source of disequilibrium was a mistake in expected inflation.
If everything else is working well, causing inflation expectations to be incorrect will make things
worse. But if there are other sources of disequilibrium, it is not clear that incorrect inflation
expectations will make things worse; they could make things better. That is a point that Lipsey and
Kelvin Lancaster taught the profession in a
classic
article "The General Theory of Second Best," 20 years before Lucas published his
critique
of econometric policy evaluation.
I conclude by quoting Lipsey's penultimate paragraph (the final paragraph being a quote from Lipsey's
paper on the Phillips Curve from the Blaug and Lloyd volume Famous Figures and Diagrams in Economics
which I quoted in full in my 2013 post.
So we seem to have gone full circle from the early Keynesian view in which there was no unique
level of GDP to which the economy was inevitably drawn, through a simple Phillips curve with its
implied trade-off, to an expectations-augmented Phillips curve (or any of its more modern equivalents)
with its associated unique level of GDP, and finally back to the early Keynesian view in which
policymakers had an option as to the average pressure of aggregate demand at which economic activity
could be sustained.
However, the modern debated about whether to aim for [the high or low range of stable unemployment
rates] is not a debate about inflation versus growth, as it was in the 1950s, but between those
who would risk an occasional rise of inflation above the target band as the price of getting unemployment
as low as possible and those who would risk letting unemployment fall below that indicated by
the lower boundary of the NAIBU as the price of never risking an acceleration of inflation above
the target rate. (p. 427)
Relations between the disciplines have not always been so distant. Scholastic natural lawyers
trained in the tradition of Aristotle and Aquinas developed defenses of private property and free
trade that influenced authors such as Grotius, who in the seventeenth century laid the groundwork
of the modern law of nations and thus the basis of modern trade. John Locke subsequently wrote an
incisive account of the natural right to property as the source of economic prosperity, and Adam
Smith, who wrote a treatise of moral philosophy before authoring The Wealth of Nations ,
described what he called a system of natural liberty as the matrix of genuine wealth. Although in
the nineteenth century both moral philosophy and economics in the English-speaking world developed
under the influence of utilitarianism, contemporary theory in both natural-law moral philosophy and
economics emphasizes the centrality of the human person and the practical choices he makes concerning
human goods or values. In this regard, the question of the relation of natural law to economics is
on the one hand the extent to which economic calculations can be based on notions of objective good
established by practical moral reason, and on the other hand the extent to which practical judgments
by individuals about their good can be informed by an awareness of global consequences.
Philosophy of Economics
"Philosophy of Economics" consists of inquiries concerning
(a) rational choice,
(b) the appraisal of economic outcomes, institutions and processes, and
(c) the ontology of economic phenomena and the possibilities of acquiring knowledge of them.
Although these inquiries overlap in many ways, it is useful to divide philosophy of economics
in this way into three subject matters which can be regarded respectively as branches of action theory,
ethics (or normative social and political philosophy), and philosophy of science.
Economic theories of rationality, welfare, and social choice defend substantive philosophical
theses often informed by relevant philosophical literature and of evident interest to those interested
in action theory, philosophical psychology, and social and political philosophy.
Economics is of particular interest to those interested in epistemology and philosophy of science
both because of its detailed peculiarities and because it possesses many of the overt features of
the natural sciences, while its object consists of social phenomena.
James Stoner is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Louisiana State University.
He sits on the editorial board of Public Discourse .
The papers presented at the Natural Law and Economics Conference can be found on-line at the
conference website .
Humans exist in, for all practical purposes, a closed system - the earth.
There are resources available within that system and various means for humans to avail themselves
of those resources.
Economics is supposed to be the study of the management of available resources in the most
adventageous manner.
To do that properly, economics must start with the examination of the whole system.]
Natural Law and Economics: Total Strangers or Separated Lovers?
by James Stoner
"A recent conference at Princeton University asked whether in the midst of current economic
challenges natural law philosophy might not provide a better foundation for the practice of economics
than the utilitarian account of value that currently underwrites it.
"Relations between the disciplines have not always been so distant. Scholastic natural lawyers
trained in the tradition of Aristotle and Aquinas developed defenses of private property and free
trade that influenced authors such as Grotius, who in the seventeenth century laid the groundwork
of the modern law of nations and thus the basis of modern trade. John Locke subsequently wrote
an incisive account of the natural right to property as the source of economic prosperity, and
Adam Smith, who wrote a treatise of moral philosophy before authoring The Wealth of Nations, described
what he called a system of natural liberty as the matrix of genuine wealth. Although in the nineteenth
century both moral philosophy and economics in the English-speaking world developed under the
influence of utilitarianism, contemporary theory in both natural-law moral philosophy and economics
emphasizes the centrality of the human person and the practical choices he makes concerning human
goods or values. In this regard, the question of the relation of natural law to economics is on
the one hand the extent to which economic calculations can be based on notions of objective good
established by practical moral reason, and on the other hand the extent to which practical judgments
by individuals about their good can be informed by an awareness of global consequences."
"Philosophy of Economics" consists of inquiries concerning (a) rational choice, (b) the appraisal
of economic outcomes, institutions and processes, and (c) the ontology of economic phenomena and
the possibilities of acquiring knowledge of them. Although these inquiries overlap in many ways,
it is useful to divide philosophy of economics in this way into three subject matters which can
be regarded respectively as branches of action theory, ethics (or normative social and political
philosophy), and philosophy of science. Economic theories of rationality, welfare, and social
choice defend substantive philosophical theses often informed by relevant philosophical literature
and of evident interest to those interested in action theory, philosophical psychology, and social
and political philosophy. Economics is of particular interest to those interested in epistemology
and philosophy of science both because of its detailed peculiarities and because it possesses
many of the overt features of the natural sciences, while its object consists of social phenomena.
The Shiller 10-year price-earnings ratio * is currently 29.59, so the inverse or the earnings
rate is 3.38%. The dividend yield is 1.92. So an expected yearly return over the coming 10 years
would be 3.38 + 1.92 or 5.30% provided the price-earnings ratio stays the same and before investment
costs.
Against the 5.33% yearly expected return on stock over the coming 10 years, the current 10-year
Treasury bond yield is 2.25%.
The risk premium for stocks is 5.30 - 2.25 or 3.05%.
"... The biggest winner last year was Thomas M. Rutledge of Charter Communications, who pulled down a $98 million pay package, according to the Equilar 200 highest-paid chief executive rankings, conducted for The New York Times. ..."
"... Mr. Rutledge, 63, stormed to the front of the pack after closing his company's mega-merger, a $65 billion takeover of Time Warner and a smaller competitor. For that, he got a big bump in pay. The year before, his compensation totaled $16.4 million. ..."
As C.E.O. Pay Packages Grow, Top Executives
Have the President's Ear
https://nyti.ms/2r4t6mY
NYT - MATTHEW GOLDSTEIN - MAY 26, 2017
Pay packages for
America's top executives once again climbed in 2016 after
slipping the year before.
Perhaps the pay surge reflects the times: Stocks are
coming off a strong run. Unemployment is low. The economy is
percolating.
And President Trump is not only promising to roll back
what he calls excessive business regulations but also
listening keenly to what corporate America has to say. Since
taking office on Jan. 20, the businessman-turned-politician
has met with hundreds of executives, including at least 41 of
last year's 200 best-paid C.E.O.s, a New York Times analysis
shows.
The biggest winner last year was Thomas M. Rutledge of
Charter Communications, who pulled down a $98 million pay
package, according to the Equilar 200 highest-paid chief
executive rankings, conducted for The New York Times.
Mr. Rutledge, 63, stormed to the front of the pack after
closing his company's mega-merger, a $65 billion takeover of
Time Warner and a smaller competitor.
For that, he got a big bump in pay. The year before, his
compensation totaled $16.4 million.
This past March, Mr. Rutledge met with Mr. Trump in the
Oval Office. The president lavished him with praise for a
plan to add 20,000 jobs, although the broad outlines of that
initiative had been laid out nearly two years earlier, when
the merger was first announced.
This combination - the gains in pay for chief executives,
the president's pledge to deregulate and cut corporate tax
rates - sets the stage for perhaps the most consequential
moment for corporate governance since the financial crisis of
2008. Rising executive compensation only widens the gap
between top executives and most American workers. Mr.
Rutledge, for instance, made 2,617 times the average American
worker's salary of $37,632, according to figures maintained
by the A.F.L.-C.I.O. ...
(graphic, at the link))
President Trump Greets the C.E.O.s
Since Inauguration Day, President Donald J. Trump has met
with at least 307 chief executives of American companies, 41
of whom were among the 200 highest-paid C.E.O.s in 2016, as
calculated by Equilar, a compensation analysis company.
Would Shareholders in Charter Communications Have Less
Money If They Paid Their CEO $10 Million Instead of $98
Million?
That's the question the board of directors of Charter
should be asking, but I suspect they never do. The company
scored first in the New York Times's annual compilation * of
CEO pay packages, coming in almost $30 million ahead of CBS,
which is number 2. Of course if the CEOs earned less than the
other top people in the corporate hierarchy would likely get
smaller paychecks as well. And, it might be harder for the
presidents of universities, foundations, and non-profits to
explain the need for seven figure salaries for their work.
It seems unlikely that directors ever push in a big way
for lower pay for CEOs because they have almost no incentive
to do so. More than 99 percent of the directors put up for
re-election are approved by shareholders. This is because it
is very difficult to organize among shareholders to unseat a
director. (Think of the difficulty of unseating an incumbent
member of Congress and multiple by about 100.)
As a result, there is no reason to raise unpleasant
questions at board meetings. Even though they are supposed to
serve shareholders, which means not paying one penny more
than necessary to CEOs and top management for their
performance (just as CEOs try to pay workers as little as
possible), their incentive is to get along with top
management. The result is the upward spiral in CEO pay that
we have seen in the last four decades.
A big part of the problem is that asset managers (think
Vanguard and Blackrock) routinely support management slates
as they vote trillions (literally) of dollars worth of stock
held by people in their 401(k)s and IRAs. These asset
managers care more about staying on good terms with top
management than making sure they aren't overpaid. This
creates a structure where ridiculously rich CEOs, who are
usually big celebrants of the market, are effectively
shielded themselves from market discipline. Isn't that the
way markets are supposed to work?
Here are 200 of the highest-paid chief executives in
American business. The data comes from the Equilar 200
Highest-Paid CEO Rankings, which lists the compensation of
the chief executives of 200 public companies with annual
revenue of at least $1 billion, that filed proxies by May
1st.
This list is often seen posted on the bedroom wall of certain
young ladies living in Manhattan. And the poor young dudes at
the gym cannot figure out why they can't get a date.
The Question Isn't Why Wage Growth Is So Low. It's Why
It's So High.
https://nyti.ms/2r5tRMx
via @UpshotNYT
NYT - NEIL IRWIN - MAY 26, 2017
One of the economy's biggest mysteries is this: The labor
market is the strongest it has been in a decade, yet wages
are rising barely faster than inflation.
For some reason, the booming job market and ultralow
unemployment rate, which fell to 4.4 percent in April,
haven't led employers to raise pay in a meaningful way. That
flies in the face of a basic assumption of how the economy
works: A tight labor market is expected to lead to pay
increases that in turn fuel broader inflation.
But the mystery of the missing pay raises may have a
surprisingly simple solution, and one that sheds light on the
larger economic challenges of our age.
Consider a simple model for how much the average worker's
pay ought to be rising: You could simply add together the
productivity growth rate - how rapidly the output generated
by each hour of labor is increasing - and the inflation rate,
which tells us how quickly prices are rising.
Over the last 24 months through March, inflation has come
in at 1.4 percent a year, and productivity growth at 0.6
percent. Those are very low numbers. And in our supersimple
model, you may expect average worker wages to have risen only
2 percent.
In fact, the average hourly earnings for nonmanagerial
private sector workers rose 2.4 percent a year in that
period. You may not feel like cheering about that, but it's
more than we might have expected, with inflation and
productivity so weak. The real mystery, then, isn't why wages
are rising so slowly, but why they're rising so fast.
If anything, the numbers show that workers are capturing
more than their share of the spoils from a growing economy.
And that, as it happens, is the reverse of a decades-long
trend. For most of the last half-century - 84 percent of the
time since 1966 - average wages have grown more slowly than
would be predicted based on productivity and inflation
growth. The rise in the share of employee compensation that
takes the form of health benefits instead of wages is a
factor, but doesn't explain the whole gap; for long
stretches, that gap exceeded 2 percentage points a year.
That means the labor share of national income was
shrinking, or, more plainly, that workers' slice of the
economic pie got smaller while the part taken by shareholders
and other owners of capital grew. ...
A Wall Street Journal analysis shows that since the 1990s,
sparsely populated counties have replaced large cities as
America's most troubled areas by key measures of
socioeconomic well-being-a decline that's accelerating
By Janet Adamy and Paul Overberg
Atthe corner where East North Street meets North Cherry
Street in the small Ohio town of Kenton, the Immaculate
Conception Church keeps a handwritten record of major
ceremonies. Over the last decade, according to these
sacramental registries, the church has held twice as many
funerals as baptisms.
In tiny communities like Kenton, an unprecedented shift is
under way. Federal and other data show that in 2013, in the
majority of sparsely populated U.S. counties, more people
died than were born-the first time that's happened since the
dawn of universal birth registration in the 1930s.
...
In many cities, falling crime has attracted more middle-
and upper-class families while an influx of millennials
delaying marriage has helped keep divorce rates low.
Maria Nelson, a 45-year-old media company manager who came
to Washington, D.C., to work after college, had always
assumed she would someday move to the suburbs, where she had
grown up. A generation of heavy federal spending helped make
the nation's capital one of the country's highest-earning
urban centers. Its median household income rose to $71,000 a
year in 2015, a 51% increase since 1980, adjusted for
inflation.
While Ms. Nelson was able to buy a brick row house in
2002, she said she worries about younger colleagues-let alone
anyone moving in from a small town-who face soaring
real-estate prices. "The whole area just seems to be out of
range for most people now," she said
In Kenton, Father Young said that despite their mounting
troubles, he is optimistic about his parishioners. Some of
them tell him they worry about what will happen when they die
because they still provide for their adult children.
He likes to say there is always hope. "They can find a
job," he said. "Columbus is close enough."
Sorry Kentucky; in a federal government run like a business -
you are a LOSER. Time to cut you off and leave you behind. If
we are going to WIN so much that we get tired of it, we just
cannot carry to load of someone like you.
"... In economics, the Phillips curve is a historical inverse relationship between rates of unemployment and corresponding rates of inflation that result in an economy. Stated simply, decreased unemployment, (i.e. increased levels of employment) in an economy will correlate with higher rates of inflation. ..."
"... In the post WWII era, when has the Phillips curve actually produced a correlation over any decade? It certainly has not produced one over the past decade. ..."
"... This is a new status quo -- "neoliberal status quo". So there is not fix in the pipeline. The idea is to suppress the protest not to meet the workers demands. And so far they are very successful. And, I think, unless there is a open rebellion (unlikely in the national security state) there will be no fix in the future. When goals of a particular society are so screwed there can be no fix. ..."
In economics, the Phillips curve is a historical inverse relationship between rates of
unemployment and corresponding rates of inflation that result in an economy. Stated simply, decreased
unemployment, (i.e. increased levels of employment) in an economy will correlate with higher rates
of inflation.
"you are saying inflation has been rampant over the past 40 years"
Rampant or not rampant, but some prices (such as rents, education, and medical costs, many
food items, gas, car repairs) are doubled or tripled in the last 20 years. That means at least
5% a year.
In the 90s, Alan Greenspan famously ignored the Philipps curve in a period with a robust economy,
low unemployment and no runaway inflation.
Correlation is not causation. There is no good model for inflation. The Expectations ideas
that hyped by Lucas are wanting.
Runaway inflation is caused by lack of confidence in a currency. High inflation rates do not
necessarily lead to runaway inflation. Inflation in the late 70s was high because of the oil shock
and the lack of available substitutions or conservation measures.
The Carter energy policies put a larger gap between oil supply and demand making it harder
for cartels to deliver a price shock. High inflation occurs when relative prices and wages need
to rapidly adjust. Inflation allows them to adjust upward without much unemployment.
Volcker in 1980 caused high unemployment by not allowing prices and wages to readjust upward.
Prices and wages would have stabilized without Volcker when conservation and substitution measures
for oil were fully implemented. There is as much evidence for the heterodox counterfactual than
the blind acceptance of Volcker as savior form runaway inflation.
One "problem" with inflation is that it is not universal but highly responsive to "consumption
preferences" i.e. seller-side pricing power. Something that happens reliably when people (as well
as businesses) experience financial pressures - the stuff that is easiest to cut will be cut first.
That's usually the most discretionary which for the same reason doesn't represent a high portion
of total cost, nor long contract lock-ins ("nickel and diming"). E.g. higher-tier cable TV packages,
fancy eating out, office supplies, cost controls on catered lunches, etc.
Did Volcker's action lead to effects like lower rents, lower healthcare costs, lower costs
of local services like water, electricity, garbage removal, etc?
Just consider how much in consumer products you could buy if you would get one month of free
rent.
In the post WWII era, when has the Phillips curve actually produced a correlation over any
decade? It certainly has not produced one over the past decade.
too many involuntary part-timers too little bargaining power by workers downward pressure from
global labor markets on our labor market geographical mismatches supply/demand (and difficulty
relocating) etc.
The fix? I'm not certain what will work at this point.
"The fix? I'm not certain what will work at this point."
This is a new status quo -- "neoliberal status quo". So there is not fix in the pipeline.
The idea is to suppress the protest not to meet the workers demands. And so far they are very
successful. And, I think, unless there is a open rebellion (unlikely in the national security
state) there will be no fix in the future. When goals of a particular society are so screwed there
can be no fix.
There will be a third world country within the USA segregated from the rest of society. It
already exists (Wall-mart and retail workers are definitely a part of it; single mothers is another
category). But it will grow. In a way, we can think about election of Trump as kin of rebellion
against the destruction of jobs and associated destruction of standard of living for a large part
of the US population. Destruction of jobs is why the USA has an opiates epidemics. That's like
epidemic of alcoholism in the USSR.
And it is the neoliberal establishment which imposed on people those "several problems":
too many involuntary part-timers
too little bargaining power by workers
downward pressure from global labor markets on our labor market
"... Never underestimate an [neoliberal] economist's ability to ignore reality. ..."
"... In a kleptocracy, looters are not called looters. That might cause the serfs to rebel. So they are called "creators" instead, and their stolen loot becomes the just and righteous reward for their work. Indeed it is the manifestation of natural law without which society and the economy would fall into darkness, etc., etc. ..."
"... NAIRU is not to blame but the looters who espoused it. They are afterall the crafters of the conventional wisdom. There were no mistakes. As looting-enabling propaganda, NAIRU functioned exactly as it was supposed to. ..."
"... NAIRU is the perfect example of purpose-driven science, and Milton Friedman et al and NAIRU rank right up there with the German racial scientists and eugenics and social Darwinism when it comes to justifying pure evil. ..."
"... The idea that there really is no "Gault" in a modern economy is not new. J.K. Galbraith described the inherent interdependence between management and workers in his book The New Industrial State in which he coined the term "technostructure" to describe how modern industry no longer could realistically claim to run by a single person. Instead, the rise of scientific and business specialties made nearly all employees of a business vital. No one, especially the CEO, could really claim to all the profits. ..."
"... Relative wealth is the key to power and concentrated wealth to absolute power, the holy grail. Thus inequality is not an unintended consequence at all; it's the neolibs' actual goal, a feature not a bug. Power is their ultimate narcotic. And their pursuit of it is relentless and violent. ..."
"... I believe this is the elemental nature of our criminal elite that people must understand, first and foremost, before change is remotely possible. Unfortunately it's difficult for sane people to comprehend such madness, and they continue to believe people like Obama have a conscience, that Congress really seeks the greater good, that our warriors really want to avoid war. They can no more relate to people like Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfien, or Benjamin Shalom than they can to a pedophile or a rapist. They have no common reference with the enemies of humanity. ..."
"... Feudalism wasn't concerned with economic growth and performance. Those ideas came with the Enlightenment and the Modern eras, and the end of monarchy. My point was to use "vassal" in the sense of someone who owe allegiance to a master but is not a slave. ..."
"... Mexico, you made the claim that NAIRU was "purpose-driven science". I countered with the point that NAIRU was pseudo-science and that economics is not a science. Neither statement has anything to do with indicting science. ..."
Great article!!! The drum beat continues Productivity is definitely constrained by tight consumer
liquidity from weak labor compensation.
Economists are going to learn a big lesson, when they see unemployment get stuck above 6.7%. They
will try to explain it by pointing to problems in the economy or government. But the dynamic to
limit employment is already established and it is due to low labor share. My calculations say
the limit is 7.0% but I am allowing some margin of error.
The next two years should certainly be enlightening for many economists, including Krugman,
Delong and Thoma. They do not see the effective demand limit coming.
Hello? All talk of policy and regulations have left-out the workers. They make shit and they
buy shit. Without them, how would multi-national corporations be able to afford the lawyers, lobbyists,
members of Congress – both House and Senate, and it would now appear, members of the US Supreme
Court.
"Higher real wage claims necessarily reduce firms' profitability and hence, if firms want to
protect profits (needed for investment and growth), higher wages must lead to higher prices and
ultimately run-away inflation. The only way to stop this process is to have an increase in "natural
unemployment", which curbs workers' wage claims.
"What is missing from this NAIRU thinking is that wages provide macroeconomic benefits in terms
of higher labour productivity growth and more rapid technological progress."
True. But that aside, the original argument is a non-sequitur. Certainly, a fight between labor
and capital over how to share the economic pie can lead to inflation, but it does not follow that
full employment leads to accelerating inflation instead of converging inflation or fairly constant
inflation. The NAIRU argument takes the behavior of capital as given and puts the onus of responsibility
on labor. It amounts to special pleading.
BTW, it is not unusual in human systems to have conflicts that threaten to become a runaway
feedback cycle. But somehow that rarely happens, for reasons that are not always clear. We still
do not understand human systems all that well.
..Greenspan's (therefore Rand "goddess") ideological position is based upon equal access and
most especially information to markets this "equality" is undone by secrecy, insider trading,
HFT, etc, etc.
In other words, it's all ideological-never existed, anywhere, any time, in reality..
In a kleptocracy, looters are not called looters. That might cause the serfs to rebel.
So they are called "creators" instead, and their stolen loot becomes the just and righteous reward
for their work. Indeed it is the manifestation of natural law without which society and the economy
would fall into darkness, etc., etc.
"Greenspan's stance reflected the conventional wisdom , codified in the theory of
the non-accelerating-inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). It must take the blame for unleashing
and at the same time legitimizing a vastly unequal and ultimately unsustainable growth process."
NAIRU is not to blame but the looters who espoused it. They are afterall the crafters of
the conventional wisdom. There were no mistakes. As looting-enabling propaganda, NAIRU functioned
exactly as it was supposed to.
"firms want to protect profits (needed for investment and growth)"
No. Firms are inanimate. They do not want anything. Nor is it the case that their managements
want to protect their profits for the purpose of investment and growth. In a kleptocracy, management
wishes not just to keep but increase profits in order to loot them.
The authors of this article, like those they criticize, leave out the social purposes for why
we have an economy and why we allow corporations to exist. Both look on the economy as a natural
process governed by natural laws (that is what this article is about: which laws best describe
the economy), and not the human enterprise it is. The real measure of the economy is whether it
is producing the society we want to live in. Classical measures, such as growth and productivity,
may be irrelevant or even at odds with this construction.
NAIRU is not to blame but the looters who espoused it. They are afterall the crafters of
the conventional wisdom. There were no mistakes. As looting-enabling propaganda, NAIRU functioned
exactly as it was supposed to.
Exactly!
NAIRU is the perfect example of purpose-driven science, and Milton Friedman et al and NAIRU
rank right up there with the German racial scientists and eugenics and social Darwinism when it
comes to justifying pure evil.
I isn't fair to call NAIRU "science", since it, like economics, isn't scientific in any way.
Science has enough problems without having to take on charlatans like Friedman.
Friedman's work, as exemplified by NAIRU, is pseudo-science used to justify the demands of
the industrtialists and financiers to remove governmental economic regulation. It's an example
of what I like to call "Laissez-Faire
Lysenkoism ", after the
infamous Soviet agronomist who rigged his experiments and data to demonstrate that communism had
a biological basis.
I agree very much with the article's analysis and conclusions. But I want to add two things:
1. The idea that there really is no "Gault" in a modern economy is not new. J.K. Galbraith
described the inherent interdependence between management and workers in his book The New Industrial
State in which he coined the term "technostructure" to describe how modern industry no longer
could realistically claim to run by a single person. Instead, the rise of scientific and business
specialties made nearly all employees of a business vital. No one, especially the CEO, could really
claim to all the profits.
2. I think the question of economic performance is too narrow. The real issue ultimately is
power. At some point, wealth will become so concentrated that the rich won't care about economic
performance; they'll just make vassals and slaves of the rest of us. At some point money per se
will become obsolete, since everything will be owned by a few anyway.
On number 2, I don't remember Feudalists ever worrying about economic growth, except when it
came to how much grain they could extract from their serfs.
It doesn't matter all that much to the ruling classes how much growth there is or not as long
as they control all that there is.
If low growth means easier control, then they will prefer that. Though I must say im not sure
that low growth does mean easier control.
Dave's close, but you got it! Neoliberal economics is not interested in a dynamic economy,
in optimum output, or in aggregate wealth-creation, and most certainly not in shared prosperity
(egad!). It is only relative wealth that concerns our neoliberal elite.
Relative wealth is the key to power and concentrated wealth to absolute power, the holy
grail. Thus inequality is not an unintended consequence at all; it's the neolibs' actual goal,
a feature not a bug. Power is their ultimate narcotic. And their pursuit of it is relentless and
violent.
I believe this is the elemental nature of our criminal elite that people must understand,
first and foremost, before change is remotely possible. Unfortunately it's difficult for sane
people to comprehend such madness, and they continue to believe people like Obama have a conscience,
that Congress really seeks the greater good, that our warriors really want to avoid war. They
can no more relate to people like Jamie Dimon, Lloyd Blankfien, or Benjamin Shalom than they can
to a pedophile or a rapist. They have no common reference with the enemies of humanity.
Feudalism wasn't concerned with economic growth and performance. Those ideas came with
the Enlightenment and the Modern eras, and the end of monarchy. My point was to use "vassal" in
the sense of someone who owe allegiance to a master but is not a slave.
As for the other points you made, I was trying make those too: At some point the inequality
makes modern economics irrelevant.
You can also take the time to read the classics of Bacon, Descartes, Newton, et al.
A succinct definition of "science" is not that easy. But I argue that scientific statements
at the least have to be robust-they have to be capable of reliable confirmation i.e., identical
conditions should lead to the same observations, in other words "predictability" (Popper's "falsification"
is a useful rule of thumb); a new theory should be able to explain or describe all relevant phenomena
described by older theories as well as new phenomena to maintain unified explanation.
As I've argued many times on this 'blog, economics fails both tests. Instead economists offer
statements that ape scientific forms, what I call "pseudo-science". They do this out of ignorance
and a desire to cow the public (including scientists).
And we're all entitled to review the facts and make our judgment in light of the definitions
and uses of the term "science".
I don't see your point in attacking science, which you of course never define. I believe that
humanity needs a view of life that is far broader than provided by science alone. But the scientific
view is still vital to our lives. The problem is that far too many have become mesmerized by the
usefulness of science in addressing certain types of questions, and have been trying to force
their own investigations into a scientific mold rather than admitting that the scientific method
cannot address all questions equally well.
Well for me, the question is still who gets to decide what is science and what is pseudo-science?
Is it the guy with the most money?
The guy with the biggest printing press or soap box?
The guy with the most political power?
The Nobel Prize committee?
University professors?
The person with the most publications?
The most prestigious and renowned scientist?
The school of hard knocks has taught us that none of the above are trustworthy or reliable.
The historian of science Naomi Oreskes gives a great talk about this phenomenon here:
This means that one is therefore forced back onto their own lights.
Which brings us back to the question: How does the layperson tell the difference between science
and pseudoscience? I don't know many laypersons who have read Bacon, Newton or Descartes.
And what if they've read Hume, Kant or Nietzsche? Then they come away with a very different
idea of what science is. For example:
Thus, though metaphysics is an illusion from the point of view of science, science in turn
becomes but another state of illusion as far as absolute truth is concerned. In The Birth
of Tragedy Nietzche already attacks the scientific optimism of his time under the guise
of "Socratism." The "theoretic man" pursues truth in the delusion that reality can be fathomed,
and even purged of evil, by rational thought and its applications. But faith in the omnipotence
of reason shatters, for the courageously persistent thinker, not only on the fact that science
can never complete its work but chiefly on the positive apprehension that reality is irrational.
As Nietzsche writes later, "We are illogical and therefore unjust beings from the first,
and can know this : that is one of the greatest and most insoluble disharmonies of existence."
Mexico, I already answered that question. I really don't care what Naiomi Oreskes thinks; I
think for myself. And I don't have much patience for people who won't make the effort to learn
enough about science to answer the question for themselves.
There's a world of difference between Oreskes's writings about the abuse of science to further
partisan political positions, and the meaning of science itself and deciding what qualifies as
science. Just make the effort to learn and stop quoting everyone else.
As for your quote about Nietzsche, all this argument leaves is the usual relativistic confusion.
And that just invites abuse. Science and the scientific method can be defined well enough to distinguish
reliable claims from charaltanism. If you want absolutes, you might just as well accept what the
most powerful tell you to accept.
Yes, someone does get to decide. Because there ARE universal truths, like it or not.
For example, the world is not flat. Period. All the relativism in the world won't change the
fact that the world is NOT flat.
Arguing against fact doesn't make one some sort of relativist intellectual (is that a term??)
it makes one WRONG. And the only way humanity can ever transcend chaos is to acknowledge those
truths that are universal. We, as a species, are still nowhere near there, and it's like trying
to play a baseball game with no foul lines, basees, umpires, or even a ball. Yes, if life were
like a baseball game there are entire groups of people today that argue it can be played without
a ball. We'll never get beyond this chaos and into a peaceful order until we all get on more or
less the same playing field, and the only way to do that is to acknowledge truths (or rules, like
foul lines, in baseball).
Science is but one avenue to identify those truths. There are others.
Mexico, you made the claim that NAIRU was "purpose-driven science". I countered with the
point that NAIRU was pseudo-science and that economics is not a science. Neither statement has
anything to do with indicting science.
If you argue about flaws in science, whatever that means,n then start a new thread.
Science is a method, but what that method is applied to and how its results are interpreted
are not. Science is also a human activity and so must be viewed through the lens of our humanity,
not as objective truth external to us.
Lord save us! Humans are biological systems and such systems have all kinds of modularity to
protect various sub-systems and the overall system from collapse.
So where is a modular economics?
Growth? What's that? A sensible, scientific notion of it would be a system that raises everyone
a lot, curtails rich by-products that capture politics and load the many with economic rents,
educates to planet level responsibility, reduces work and squalid energy burning and related wars
We should be seeking stability and incorporating real well-being and a new understanding of
growth. Growth as we have it is a Gucci handbag while others live on a squalid jack tuna boat
earning almost nothing for your fish, eaten with a fancy T-shirt on proclaiming 'save the dolphins',
served with salad picked by migrant workers to keep your figure trim along with the coke you snort.
What growth should be one of the first questions of economics, followed by how we might create
a modular financing of what we should be doing. Without such, no subject.
In reality all the dynamism is in the state sector – from the internet, to superconductors,
pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, containerisation. 'The market' just deals with copyright and marketing.
This is all about mathiness and corruption of neoliberal economist, which is a real Fifth Column
of financial oligarchy no question about it. With unemployment measures irrevocably corrupted
by political pressures, how one can be talk about validity of derivatives based on them, unless
he/she is drunk ?
In this sense NAIRU is yet another sophisticated neoliberal fake that help to drive the public
policy in the interests of financial oligarchy under mathiness smoke screen and a bunch of corrupt
neoliberal economics serving as a propagandist army of financial oligarchy.
It's time to revamp the old quote changing it to " When I hear the term NAURU...I reach for
my gun!."
If course it would be too cruel to shoot all neoliberal economists, so reeducation camps should
probably be considered.
I think only U6 has some connections to reality. And the discrepancy between official and Gallup
value of U6 is 4%
In other words only the first digit is probably valid and the range is 10 to 20%.
== quote ==
For January 2016 the official Current U-6 unemployment rate was 10.1% up from last month's 9.1%.
On the other hand the independently produced Gallup equivalent called the "Underemployment Rate"
was 14.1% up from 13.7 in December and 13.0% in November. The current differential between Gallup
and BLS on supposedly the same data is 4.0%!
The NAIRU essentially presupposes the existence of the wage-price spiral. Which can happen
only if wages are either indexed to inflation by law, or there are strong trade unions to defend
workers rights. Under neoliberalism both are those factors are suppressed and can be viewed as
non-existent.
And the statement that the NAIRU myth belongs to the vocabulary of charlatans does not deviate
from the serious character of the discussion. This is just a historical truth.
Hot of the presses: "Debunking the NAIRU myth" January 19, 2017 By Matthew C Klein
First, some history. In 1926, Irving Fisher found a relationship between the level of unemployment
and the rate of consumer price inflation in the US. In 1958, AW Phillips studied UK data from
1861-1957 and found a relationship between the jobless rate and the growth of nominal wages, although
the relationship seems to have been an artifact of the gold standard given the vertical line he
found in the postwar period:
Some people (wrongly) interpreted Phillips's data to mean that there was a straightforward
trade-off between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. Policymakers could just pick any
spot on "the Phillips Curve" they want. Among a certain set, the big debates in the 1960s were
about whether the government should target an unemployment rate of 3 per cent or 5 per cent.
This worked out poorly, but the reaction took the form of an equally dubious idea: the Non-Accelerating
Inflation Rate of Unemployment, or NAIRU. In this view, the change in the inflation rate should
be related to the distance between the actual jobless rate and some theoretical level. If the
unemployment rate were above this "neutral" level the inflation rate would slow down and potentially
turn into outright deflation. If the jobless rate were "too low", however, consumer prices would
rise at an accelerating rate.
Suppose you believe NAIRU is a real thing. What would be the argument against pushing the unemployment
rate as close to zero as possible? In theory, the cost of the policy would be ever-accelerating
inflation, eventually perhaps leading to hyperinflation. But the reason to dislike excessive inflation
is that it ultimately makes everyone poorer, which should, among other things, increase unemployment.
(Just look at Venezuela, for a recent example.)
According to the wacky world of NAIRU, however, hyperinflation can coexist just fine with hyper-employment.
Clearly there must be other mechanisms at work, or else we are leaving money on the table by allowing
the jobless rate to ever rise above zero.
== end of quote ==
Some comments are interesting too:
grputland, Jan 22, 2017
To test the NAIRU hypothesis against historical data, shouldn't we plot unemployment vs. change
in inflation? -- instead of CHANGE in unemployment vs. change in inflation?
Be that as it may:
If there is such a thing as a NAIRU, it is still a mistake to treat the NAIRU as a "given"
rather than a function of policy.
If a certain tax feeds into prices, it leaves less room for wages to feed into prices before
(according to NAIRU logic) inflation accelerates. So any tax that feeds into prices will tend
to raise the NAIRU. This is especially the case if the tax causes the cost of labor for employers
to be higher than workers' take-home pay.
Thus the NAIRU, if it exists, is not a counsel of despair, but rather a counsel to get rid
of taxes that feed into prices (especially taxes on labor) and replace them, as far as necessary,
with taxes that DON'T feed into prices -- that is, taxes on economic rents.
Many variables contribute to the inflation rate, certainly more than just domestic employment
(and how it is calculated). The Fed's dual mandate is inflation and employment, so it makes sense
that these are a focus of the Fed's communication. But the Fed tends to focus on the result rather
than the cause. It is troubling that there is little discussion from most of the FOMC on inflation
factors which are now more important than unemployment (currency values, foreign labor, technology,
commodity demand and speculation, labor monopsony, underemployment, labor skill demand mismatch,
etc).
Producer and consumer prices are increasing, largely due to China driven commodity prices.
Managerial compensation and production hourly wages are increasing. But weekly wages are stagnant
due to fewer hours. The Fed is ignoring the latter, even though it is what is more important to
sustained core inflation.
Observer, Jan 19, 2017
Looking just at the U3 unemployment rate for the NAIRU without considering the still high U6
rate and lower labour participation rate in the US may be the issue. There's still labour market
slack even though U3 is at its "full" employment level.
grumpy, Jan 19, 2017
Models have to be used with caution (they are only tools) and interpreted with awareness of
the real world - including for example, the varying wage bargaining power of labour, which is
different, post globalisation, to what it was in the '70s.
Who do you think wanted globalisation and liberalisation of trade, and why?
"... In the 90s, Democrats like Yellen and Blinder were pushing Greenspan to raise rates when he located the trap line at a different location than they did and held off. ..."
"... A story that fits the actions. But I suspect misses the motive. Perhaps Green stain far from wanting to improve job markets i.e. defy the false wage repressing NAIRU taboo zone. He simply wanted the crazy stock bubble to continue to inflate... ..."
"... I assume Greenspan never really bought the NAIRU fairy tale. Anymore then I do. Otherwise he could never have so skillfully repressed bottom half wage rates for more then fifteen years. ..."
"... Kocker buys the general story as much as say larry sommers buys it. They simply, like Greenspan, move the mythic NAIRU up or down to support other motivations ..."
"... To simply deny the NAIRU ppens the pearly gates to a job class FED. Heaven forbid -- ..."
The models are just rationalizations of a deeply embedded
policy paradigm In place since Greenspan
The motivation: Wage rate regulation
Inflation of product prices by other means then wage costs
is ignored. The relation between job market conditions and
wage rate change
Is the core focus
If UE can go lower without wage rates accelerating. There
is no urgency Ie There is no need to accelerate the present
pace of normalizing the policy rate
Hence the informed expert opinion now calling for the FED
to play it kool
However the wall street silk hat set takes a more cynical
view
Yes Sanjait and PGL are (willfully?) naive in their pleas for
Obama's Fed to behave better.
It's not the models. It's not a bug it's a feature. The
Fed has to be pushed by a popular movement which would also
enact significant reforms on the fiscal side.
"This may seem like a strange objective, given that
Congress has charged the Fed with promoting "maximum
employment," which sounds like "try to make employment as
high as you can." But the Fed knows that if it pushes
economic activity above its long-run level in pursuing that
goal, it will eventually have to hit the brakes and bring
growth below normal to cool the economy and keep inflation
under control. The Fed doesn't want to be in that position,
so it gets just as worried when unemployment falls below its
target as it does when unemployment is too high. 1 As a
result, when the economy is close to what the Fed sees as
full employment, the central bank takes a decidedly
anti-growth policy stance to keep employment in check."
This is NAIRU worship. NK fails to bash this up. For example: How can we glibly conclude
that over shoots must be over corrected. Seems on the face of it
a convenient asymmetry: The system can run control ably Up. But not Down
The fed can lower UE step by step without some inevitable
over shoot. But not back up. The reverse gear causes a destructive excessive jolt. Well maybe so
But we ought to really look this fearsome dynamic
assymetric right in the eyes.
For a long time. Not just assume its credible because it fits some morality
play plot
written to please wall street
Depends where you locate the "basic wage trap line."
In the 90s, Democrats like Yellen and Blinder were pushing
Greenspan to raise rates when he located the trap line at a
different location than they did and held off.
A story that fits the actions.
But I suspect misses the motive.
Perhaps
Green stain far from wanting to improve job markets
i.e. defy the false wage repressing NAIRU taboo zone.
He
simply wanted the crazy stock bubble to continue to inflate...
I assume
Greenspan never really bought the NAIRU fairy tale. Anymore then I do. Otherwise he could never have so skillfully repressed
bottom half wage rates
for more then fifteen years.
Kocker buys the general story as much as say Larry
Summers
buys it. They simply, like Greenspan,
move the mythic NAIRU up or down to support other motivations
To simply deny the NAIRU
ppens the pearly gates to a job class FED. Heaven forbid --
New Deal, I thought the hyper inflation of the 70s came about because pricing determinations all
aligned in a ratcheting, a sign of a complete breakdown in market-based economics, inviting govt
intervention to halt it.
Where was it proven that wages caused these results then?
The notion of wages being related to general pricing trends is clear during deflationary trends.
Common sense, hurting and wages follow the downward spiral. If I asked a question about wages I
might agree that the downward trend is being caused by the downward trend in general pricing and
demand.
But it needs to be proven that there us a correlation and then a cause and effect reality when
general prices are rising rapidly, if you are asking if wages are a cause if this rapid rise.
The data do not now support this as you know.
The Fed needs to figure out what it can do when general prices begin to ratchet. I wish they
would look at wages last, look at other factors and other 'tools' to influence pricing determinations,
again, long before they use these false notions to justify attacking employment.
I want better economics and better logic, a different actions. For instance, can the Fed order
the credit channels not to ratchet their pricings rapidly, this would have a direct influence
on pricing. Can the Fed stop rolling over their book of assets with new purchasing subsidies to
the financial asset marketplaces and instead lower the amount of buying and selling so that the
markets see that low rates still exist (and so premia built into pricing need not use this as
a reason to ratchet). Do something differently than slamming hard on the Volker rate-peddle and
tell everyone to take it out on employment.
"... There will be a third world country within the USA segregated from the rest of society. It already exists (Wall-mart and retail workers are definitely a part of it; single mothers is another category). But it will grow. ..."
too many
involuntary part-timers
too little bargaining power by workers
downward pressure from global labor markets on our labor
market
geographical mismatches supply/demand (and difficulty
relocating)
etc.
The fix? I'm not certain what will work at this point.
"The fix? I'm not certain what will work at this point."
This is a new status quo -- "neoliberal status quo".
So there is no fix in the pipeline. The idea is to
suppress the protest, not to meet the workers demands. And so
far they are very successful.
And, I think, unless there is a open rebellion (unlikely
in the national security state) there will be no fix in the
future. When goals of a particular society are so screwed,
there can be no fix.
There will be a third world country within the USA
segregated from the rest of society. It already exists
(Wall-mart and retail workers are definitely a part of it;
single mothers is another category). But it will grow.
In a way, we can think about election of Trump as kind of
rebellion against the destruction of jobs and associated
destruction of standard of living for a large part of the US
population.
Destruction of jobs is why the USA has an opiates
epidemics. That's like epidemic of alcoholism in the USSR.
Sign of desperation.
And it is the neoliberal establishment which imposed on
people those "several problems":
-- too many involuntary part-timers
-- too little bargaining power by workers
-- downward pressure from global labor markets on our
labor market
An enlightening discussion on the tendency toward monopoly among data gathering disrupters.
Especially important seems to be the possibility of fine-grained price discrimination. While saying
not all price discrimination is considered negative by economists without studying it, it does
seem discrimination should be taken as prima facie evidence of monopoly.
While the article talks about monopoly and capture in this area, let me reiterate that looking
around the more regular corporate ecosystem there is increasing concentration among buyers and
often among suppliers that seems not to attract anti-trust attention as long as the final consumer
seems to be not harmed. "Not harmed" does not include missing out on falling prices no longer
competed for.
Productivity is typically defined as GDP divided by the total number of hours worked by population.
As GDP includes such things a military production and consumption as well as gambling profits
(Wall Street firms profits, stock market gains) how realistic is productivity as a metric?
I do not think it is realistic. Like many other neoliberal metrics (and first of all GDP),
I think it is a fake -- a pseudoscience, if you wish.
Productivity is only a realistic concept when dealing with stable units. Dividing GDP by labor
hours (or private sector labor hours) is not realistic because the monetary units are not actual
stable units because the composition of goods and services measured by GDP changes over time.
In other words, even if GDP may be useful for comparing aggregate monetary value of goods and
services from period to period. It tells us nothing about physical output and THAT, not monetary
value is what the concept of productivity implies.
If the proportions of various goods and services remained constant from quarter to quarter,
then GDP/hours would tell us something about productivity. But they don't, so it doesn't.
See "Productivity as a Social Problem: The Uses and Misuses of Social Indicators," Fred Block
and Gene A. Burns
Productivity as a Social Problem: The Uses and Misuses of Social Indicators
By Fred Block and Gene A. Burns
The study of social indicators is valuable for understanding the role that the social sciences
play in the political arena. One common pattern is for a particular social indicator to become
frozen in place once it takes on political significance, and this can result in ironic consequences.
This study traces out the case of indicators of aggregate productivity trends in the United States.
These measures were initially developed as part of an underconsumptionist argument that was linked
to the political left, but there was considerable debate over different measurement schemes. Over
time, one particular measure of trends in aggregate productivity became central for wage negotiations
and for government policy. This created a context in which the slower rates of growth of this
measure of productivity in the 1970s helped to validate the views of those on the political right
who saw the need for greater restrictions on wage gains and government civilian spending. The
paper raises questions about the value of this particular measure and ends by emphasizing the
problems of locking in place an "objective" social indicator when the reality being measured is
in continual flux.
We marxians so reverence the notion We dare not spell it out in full LTV -- Labor theory of
value
Once. The bourgeois theory of value until ricardoput too sharp a point on it
And it became the intellectual sword of the exploited toilers
All lasting exchange value is created by social labor
The part of the value of social product exchange thru markets
Not reflected in labors compensation is a product of one or other form of class exploitation
Complication
This includes rewards to innovation
Real cost reduction
And improvements of all sorts
as well as arbitrage wind fall and mere rent
It's too easy and too useless to simply condemn the whole procedure of indexation. Despite
its inevitable contradictions
[ Really important criticism, which is why I am far more interested in accumulating data for
current comparative productivity measures. I find current comparative productivity measures revealing
and important, and readily available. ]
Criticizing measures of productivity is reasonable, but where are the alternate measures and
the data to be used in recording these alternates? Current measures are backed by extensive data
and used comparatively the measures so far strike me as meaningful and important.
"It tells us nothing about physical output and THAT, not monetary value is what the concept
of productivity implies."
Yes, GDP presentations should also report the data removing the Finance and insurance segments
from the statistical program and calculations.
Considering that with the age of the computer and advanced telco capabilities it is silly to
include these segments in productivity duscussions, so we need a GDP view that matches.
And as we know these segments grew in terms of top line revenue flows remarkably in a very
short time, and this should raise questions about its role in the economic system and whether
the views of even the 1980s make sense.
You could use crude oil or electricity or debt or any numbered entity as the denominator. Thy
are all formally similar
Why labor hours ?
This is the labor theory of exchange value in modern bourgeois scientific framing
If we posit a simple historical mission for capitalism it might be the minimizing of the social
necessary labor time to produce the material requisites of society itself
Liberating humans from the burden of necessary labor
Financialization of health care makes Goldman-Sachs look like amateurs. Just read Suskind's Confidence
Men -- now reading Rosenthal's American Sickness.
First hundred pages I thought her medicine was the exact same story as his Wall Street -- but
hundreds more pages of her story goes on. The most unimaginable book I've read in a decade (decades?).
Single payer Medicare has none little to slow medical financialization. You can pick any health
system you want from any country you like.
As long as there is no countervailing force, financialization will continue unabated. Repeat:
6% labor union density equates to 20/10 blood pressure -- starves every healthy process.
Parable: A friend stopped by at a small forest service museum in the great northwest. From
the informational displays about forest management, there is nothing about a forest that cannot
be improved by cutting down trees.
With economics there is nothing about the economy that cannot be improved by wage cuts and
redistributing wealth upwards.
As General Sherman aptly observed:
"There is no property without a government."
The rules for our "Market Economy" are not divine nor set in stone.
In the US, the rules are the product of we the people.
We the people have control over the rules that govern rights to property and obligations to society.
If DeLong's view is correct, that under current rules wealth will become concentrated into the
hands of a few, then it is up to we the people to modify the rules to produce a more equitable,
just and economically viable set of rules
the message to take from this, is that as long the economy is viewed as ideally implemented when
people and firms selfishly acquire as much wealth as possible with no consideration for the plight
of their fellow humans, ...then that the economy will decay and many people will suffer
it is truly the job of the government to manage the economy in such a way as to maximize utility
for all
it is truly to job of economists to advise on how to do this
"You are graduating at a time when there is a full-fledged assault
on truth and reason. Just log on to social media for ten seconds.
It will hit you right in the face. People denying science, concocting
elaborate, hurtful conspiracy theories about child-abuse rings
operating out of pizza parlors, drumming up rampant fear about
undocumented immigrants, Muslims, minorities, the poor, turning
neighbor against neighbor and sowing division at a time when
we desperately need unity. Some are even denying things we see
with our own eyes, like the size of crowds, and then defending
themselves by talking about quote-unquote 'alternative facts.'
"But this is serious business. Look at the budget that was just
proposed in Washington. It is an attack of unimaginable cruelty
on the most vulnerable among us, the youngest, the oldest, the
poorest, and hard-working people who need a little help to gain
or hang on to a decent middle class life. It grossly under-funds
public education, mental health, and efforts even to combat the
opioid epidemic. And in reversing our commitment to fight climate
change, it puts the future of our nation and our world at risk.
And to top it off, it is shrouded in a trillion-dollar mathematical
lie. Let's call it what it is. It's a con. They don't even try
to hide it.
"Why does all this matter? It matters because if our leaders
lie about the problems we face, we'll never solve them. It matters
because it undermines confidence in government as a whole, which
in turn breeds more cynicism and anger. But it also matters because
our country, like this College, was founded on the principles
of the Enlightenment – in particular, the belief that people,
you and I, possess the capacity for reason and critical thinking,
and that free and open debate is the lifeblood of a democracy.
Not only Wellesley, but the entire American university system
– the envy of the world – was founded on those fundamental ideals.
We should not abandon them; we should revere them. We should
aspire to them every single day, in everything we do.
"And there's something else. As the history majors among you
here today know all too well, when people in power invent their
own facts, and attack those who question them, it can mark the
beginning of the end of a free society. That is not hyperbole.
It is what authoritarian regimes throughout history have done.
They attempt to control reality – not just our laws and rights
and our budgets, but our thoughts and beliefs."
Hillary should be in a hut somewhere in the Canadian north
staring at election returns. Her shameless ambition her heedless self seeking industry
and undaunted entitled drive reminds me of the worst results of meritocracy
"... "The fact that Germany is selling so much more than it is buying redirects demand from its neighbors (as well as from other countries around the world), reducing output and employment outside Germany at a time at which monetary policy in many countries is reaching its limits." ..."
"... Trade deficits have also contributed to asset bubbles. They must be financed with borrowed capital, and such flows from surplus countries were clearly associated with our housing bubble in the 2000s, as well as the longer-term "secular stagnation" economist Larry Summers talks about (weak demand, even in mature recoveries). ..."
"... Moreover, team Trump is consistently misguided with their unilateral approach to this problem of trade imbalances. As long as foreign capital continues to flow freely into the US from surplus countries, absorbing less from Germany simply implies absorbing more excess savings from somewhere else. ..."
"... Trade deficits have also contributed to asset bubbles. They must be financed with borrowed capital, and such flows from surplus countries were clearly associated with our housing bubble in the 2000s, as well as the longer-term "secular stagnation" economist Larry Summers talks about (weak demand, even in mature recoveries). ..."
"... At this point, the growing group of economists who recognize the importance of these international imbalances are pointing towards the capital flows themselves as the force behind persistent trade deficits. ..."
"... "King suggests that the best solution is for deficit countries to get together with surplus countries and, a la Bretton Woods, figure out a "mutually advantageous path to restore growth." That sounds a bit pie-in-the-sky until you consider the economic shampoo cycle ("bubble, bust, repeat") that's been so repeatedly damaging to countries across the globe." ..."
So, at a meeting in Brussels yesterday, President Trump appears to have told leaders of the
European Union that "the Germans are bad, very bad." I'll let those with foreign diplomatic chops
figure out how to clean that up-and good luck: When I plug the Spiegel Online headline-"Die Deutschen
sind böse, sehr böse"-into Google translator, it spits back: "The Germans are evil, very evil."
I'll handle the economics, which actually are interesting. When Trump talks about trade, he
sometimes gets a piece of it right, and it's often a piece about which establishment politicians
and the economists that support them are in denial: Germany's trade surplus of over 8 percent
of GDP really is a problem for the other countries with whom they trade.
That's not just my view. Both Ben Bernanke and more recently, Lord Mervyn King, former governor
of the Central Bank of England, have expressed serious concerns about the impact of Germany's
large trade surplus on other countries.
But here are two things that I'm sure Trump misunderstands. First, Germany is not manipulating
its currency to build its surplus. Instead, it's the single currency of the Eurozone that's the
culprit. Germany is the economic powerhouse of the region, with stronger growth and production
practices than its Eurozone partners. Thus, if it's currency could float, it would surely appreciate,
but it can't, so its goods are underpriced in export markets relative to those countries' exports.
Second, as I'll get to in a moment, it's not clear what Germany should do about it.
In many posts, I've explained that, contrary to conventional wisdom, including the pushback
I've already heard from German EU ministers, trade imbalances are not always benign, nor do they
represent efficient markets at work. King stresses the damage of currency misalignments, as well
as the fundamental arithmetic of global trade. Since trade must balance on a global scale, one
country's trade surplus must show up as other countries' deficits. When a country like Germany
produces so much more than it consumes (runs a trade surplus), other countries must consume more
than they produce (run trade deficits). And when the magnitudes get this large as a share of GDP-Germany's
surplus hit a record 8.6 percent of GDP last year-the damage to other nations can be severe.
Bernanke in 2015:
"The fact that Germany is selling so much more than it is buying redirects demand from
its neighbors (as well as from other countries around the world), reducing output and employment
outside Germany at a time at which monetary policy in many countries is reaching its limits."
Bernanke's last point is key. When economies are percolating along at full employment, trade
deficits can, in fact, be benign. But unemployment in the Eurozone is still 9.5 percent, which
combines Germany's 3.9 percent with Spain's 18.2 percent, Greece's 23.5 percent, Italy's 11.7
percent, and so on. Germany's massive surplus has cribbed labor demand from those high unemployment
countries, but neither the fiscal nor monetary authorities in these nations have undertaken adequate
counter-cyclical policies ("why not?" is a good question having to do with constraints of the
monetary union and austerity economics).
To be clear, even at full employment, large, persistent trade deficits-which again, are the
flipside of large, persistent surpluses-can be problematic. Here in the US, they've hurt our manufacturers
and their communities, a fact that Trump exploited in the election. And one can, of course, see
similar political dynamics in the weaker parts of European economies.
Trade deficits have also contributed to asset bubbles. They must be financed with borrowed
capital, and such flows from surplus countries were clearly associated with our housing bubble
in the 2000s, as well as the longer-term "secular stagnation" economist Larry Summers talks about
(weak demand, even in mature recoveries).
At this point, the growing group of economists who recognize the importance of these international
imbalances are pointing towards the capital flows themselves as the force behind persistent trade
deficits. This is an important insight because it belies the simple solution we tend to hear from
the mainstream: if only you'd save more, your trade deficit would shrink. But if other countries
persist in exporting their savings to us, short of capital controls to block those flows, our
trade deficit will also persist.
What could/should Germany do to be more of team player, spreading demand to others instead
of hoarding it? The usual recommendation, made by Bernanke, is to take their excess savings and
invest them at home, say through more public infrastructure or some other sort of fiscal stimulus.
But King makes the good point that since Germany is already pretty much at full employment-recall
their 3.9 percent unemployment rate–they may be disinclined to take this advice.
King suggests that they should instead do something to raise the value of their exchange rate
(appreciate their currency), but here again, it's not obvious how, as a member of the currency
union, they're supposed to go about that.
Surely, the solution Trump intimated-a big tariff on German exports into the US-wouldn't work.
For one, such actions invite retaliation, and not only do many of us want to tap the consumer
benefits of our robust global supply chains, but Germany has factories here that employ a lot
of people making cars and other equipment. That's welcome investment.
Moreover, team Trump is consistently misguided with their unilateral approach to this problem
of trade imbalances. As long as foreign capital continues to flow freely into the US from surplus
countries, absorbing less from Germany simply implies absorbing more excess savings from somewhere
else.
King suggests that the best solution is for deficit countries to get together with surplus
countries and, a la Bretton Woods, figure out a "mutually advantageous path to restore growth."
That sounds a bit pie-in-the-sky until you consider the economic shampoo cycle ("bubble, bust,
repeat") that's been so repeatedly damaging to countries across the globe. Perhaps that would
be a motivator for our trading-partner countries, though the longer Trump's out there on the road,
the harder it's getting to imagine such forward-looking international coordination.
I too have suggested that President Trump should convene such a commission, but sadly, I'm
not the Jared he listens to. In the meantime, he should check out Google Translator before he
mouths off.
Christopher H. said... May 27, 2017 at 09:25 AM
Krugman:
"This has only minor spillovers to the United States - maybe Germany's unhelpful role
has contributed a bit to our trade deficit, but this is basically an intra-Europe issue."
Bernstein:
"To be clear, even at full employment, large, persistent trade deficits-which again, are
the flipside of large, persistent surpluses-can be problematic. Here in the US, they've hurt
our manufacturers and their communities, a fact that Trump exploited in the election. And one
can, of course, see similar political dynamics in the weaker parts of European economies.
Trade deficits have also contributed to asset bubbles. They must be financed with borrowed
capital, and such flows from surplus countries were clearly associated with our housing bubble
in the 2000s, as well as the longer-term "secular stagnation" economist Larry Summers talks
about (weak demand, even in mature recoveries).
At this point, the growing group of economists who recognize the importance of these
international imbalances are pointing towards the capital flows themselves as the force behind
persistent trade deficits.
This is an important insight because it belies the simple solution we tend to hear from
the mainstream: if only you'd save more, your trade deficit would shrink. But if other countries
persist in exporting their savings to us, short of capital controls to block those flows, our
trade deficit will also persist."
Paine -> Christopher H.... May 27, 2017 at 02:10 PM
Nonsense. We can force Germany to build more cars here. In fact we can tell the German MNCs
to build all their north American cars here. Including parts and accessories. German MNCs have
no patriotic urge we couldn't subvert with market threats. Or Japanese MNCs for that matter. Push
back ?
Sorry we are the global market of choice we shut you out and you decline to secondary status.
Violate the code of MNCs liberty to jump borders at will ?
Now that is a horse of a darker shading
Christopher H. said... May 27, 2017 at 09:22 AM
Krugman:
"Yet Germany's huge trade surpluses are a problem * - which has nothing to do with trade policy."
Macro policy is sort of trade policy as Bernstein points out above. Instead of this neoliberal
ideal of a free market in international trade without trade policy or government interference,
we really need governments to manage trade, or at least manage their macro with trade policy in
mind.
As Bernstein suggest:
"King suggests that the best solution is for deficit countries to get together with surplus
countries and, a la Bretton Woods, figure out a "mutually advantageous path to restore growth."
That sounds a bit pie-in-the-sky until you consider the economic shampoo cycle ("bubble, bust,
repeat") that's been so repeatedly damaging to countries across the globe."
In the 1980s, the dollar was getting too strong until governments managed trade and currency
policy via the Plaza Accords which brought the dollar down. It was trade policy.
It wasn't policy to change savings rates or something that the mainstream economists focus
on.
Christopher H. -> to pgl... May 27, 2017 at 10:41 AM
"The exchange rate value of the dollar versus the yen declined by 51% from 1985 to 1987. Most
of this devaluation was due to the $10 billion spent by the participating central banks.[citation
needed] Currency speculation caused the dollar to continue its fall after the end of coordinated
interventions. Unlike some similar financial crises, such as the Mexican and the Argentine financial
crises of 1994 and 2001 respectively, this devaluation was planned, done in an orderly, pre-announced
manner and did not lead to financial panic in the world markets. The Plaza Accord was successful
in reducing the U.S. trade deficit with Western European nations but largely failed to fulfill
its primary objective of alleviating the trade deficit with Japan."
Since the coordinated actions of central banks led to the devaluation of the dollar and reduction
of the trade deficit, I'd say it was currency and trade policy as well.
"The justification for the dollar's devaluation was twofold: to reduce the U.S. current account
deficit, which had reached 3.5% of the GDP, and to help the U.S. economy to emerge from a serious
recession that began in the early 1980s."
"... Democrats may have some difficulty winning elections, but they've become quite adept at explaining their losses. ..."
"... According to legend, Democrats lose because of media bias, because of racism, because of gerrymandering, because of James Comey and because of Russia (an amazing 59 percent of Democrats still believe Russians hacked vote totals). ..."
"... the "deplorables" comment didn't just further alienate already lost Republican votes. It spoke to an internal sickness within the Democratic Party ..."
"... About 2/3 in that election voted early -- before the slam down. ..."
"... I agree with you that Democrats should make unions a priority instead just regurgitating the usual pablum about how they support unions without doing anything. ..."
"... The dem pols alliance outside the south with organized " private sector " unions was the legacy of the new deal and the CIO uprising. That alliance broke down in the 70's with the rise of the cultural liberals after the civil rights and anti war struggles. Union often seen by Clintons as reactionary saw their economic interests pushed aside... ..."
The Democrats Need a New Message. After another demoralizing
loss to a monstrous candidate, Democrats need a reboot
by Matt Taibbi
19 hours ago
... ... ...
The electoral results last November have been repeated
enough that most people in politics know them by heart.
Republicans now control 68 state legislative chambers, while
Democrats only control 31. Republicans flipped three more
governors' seats last year and now control an incredible 33
of those offices. Since 2008, when Barack Obama first took
office, Republicans have gained somewhere around 900 to 1,000
seats overall.
There are a lot of reasons for this. But there's no way to
spin some of these numbers in a way that doesn't speak to the
awesome unpopularity of the blue party. A recent series of
Gallup polls is the most frightening example.
Unsurprisingly, the disintegrating Trump bears a
historically low approval rating. But polls also show that
the Democratic Party has lost five percentage points in its
own approval rating dating back to November, when it was at
45 percent.
The Democrats are now hovering around 40 percent, just a
hair over the Trump-tarnished Republicans, at 39 percent.
Similar surveys have shown that despite the near daily
barrage of news stories pegging the president as a bumbling
incompetent in the employ of a hostile foreign power, Trump,
incredibly, would still beat Hillary Clinton in a rematch
today, and perhaps even by a larger margin than before.
If you look in the press for explanations for news items
like this, you will find a lot of them.
Democrats may
have some difficulty winning elections, but they've become
quite adept at explaining their losses.
According to legend, Democrats lose because of media
bias, because of racism, because of gerrymandering, because
of James Comey and because of Russia (an amazing 59 percent
of Democrats still believe Russians hacked vote totals).
Third-party candidates are said to be another implacable
obstacle to Democratic success, as is unhelpful dissension
within the Democrats' own ranks. There have even been
whispers that last year's presidential loss was Obama's
fault, because he didn't campaign hard enough for Clinton.
The early spin on the Gianforte election is that the
Democrats never had a chance in Montana because of corporate
cash, as outside groups are said to have "drowned" opponent
Rob Quist in PAC money. There are corresponding complaints
that national Democrats didn't do enough to back Quist.
A lot of these things are true. America is obviously a
deeply racist and paranoid country. Gerrymandering is a
serious problem. Unscrupulous, truth-averse right-wing media
has indeed spent decades bending the brains of huge
pluralities of voters, particularly the elderly. And
Republicans have often, but not always, had fundraising
advantages in key races.
But the explanations themselves speak to a larger problem.
The unspoken subtext of a lot of the Democrats' excuse-making
is their growing belief that the situation is hopeless – and
not just because of fixable institutional factors like
gerrymandering, but because we simply have a bad/irredeemable
electorate that can never be reached.
This is why the "basket of deplorables" comment last
summer was so devastating. That the line would become a
sarcastic rallying cry for Trumpites was inevitable. (Of
course it birthed a political merchandising supernova.) To
many Democrats, the reaction proved the truth of Clinton's
statement. As in: we're not going to get the overwhelming
majority of these yeehaw-ing "deplorable" votes anyway, so
why not call them by their names?
But
the "deplorables" comment didn't just further
alienate already lost Republican votes. It spoke to an
internal sickness within the Democratic Party
,
which had surrendered to a negativistic vision of a
hopelessly divided country.
About 2/3 in that election voted
early -- before the slam down.
Re: exciting Democrat issue
Nobody would argue I think that when 1935 Congress passed
the NLRA(a) it consciously left criminal prosecution of union
busting blank because it desired states to individually take
that up in their localities. Conversely, I don't think
anybody thinks Congress deliberately left out criminal
sanctions because it objected to such.
Congress left criminal sanctions blank in US labor law
because it thought it had done enough. States disagree?
States are perfectly free to fill in the blanks protecting
not just union organizing but any kind of collective
bargaining more generally -- without worrying about federal
preemption. Don't see why even Trump USC judge would find
fault with that.
"About 2/3 in that election voted early -- before the slam
down."
Good point, I agree. But Taibbi - who wrote a great
obit of Roger Ailes - still makes a good argument.
I
agree with you that Democrats should make unions a priority
instead just regurgitating the usual pablum about how they
support unions without doing anything.
The dem pols alliance outside the south with organized "
private sector " unions was the legacy of the new deal and
the CIO uprising. That alliance broke down in the 70's with
the rise of the cultural liberals after the civil rights and
anti war struggles. Union often seen by Clintons as
reactionary saw their economic interests pushed aside...
Valletti, who is also a Professor of Economics at the Imperial College Business School and the University of Rome Tor Vergata,
discussed the EC's investigation into the Facebook-WhatsApp merger during the panel. Facebook, he said, had "lied" to European regulators
about its ability to absorb WhatsApp's user data, but the larger issue was market definition.
"Would the decision on the merger have changed had the Commission known that information at the time?" asked Valletti, who joined
theEC in 2016. "At the time, the Commission defined the relevant market as non-search advertising. This is a huge market. In that
ocean, even Facebook doesn't have a lot of market power. If instead the market definition had been, for instance, advertising on
social networks, [it's]likely theywould have concluded that Facebook would have been dominant in that particular market, and that
integrating that useful information from [WhatsApp] could have enhanced its market power." Valletti also stressedthe importance of
having individual-level data when discussing issues like competition at the advertising market, and not just looking at market shares.
Pasquale and Taplin, meanwhile, criticized U.S. antitrust authorities, with Taplin saying that digital platforms have "done very
well because they have a certain regulatory capture" and Pasquale remarkingthat "U.S. antitrust policy is rapidly becoming a pro-trust
policy."
As an example of this "pro-trust" policy, Pasquale cited the FTC's lawsuit against online
contact lens retailer 1-800 Contacts
. 1-800 Contacts was sued by the FTC last yearfor having reached agreements with 14 other online contact lens sellers that they
would not advertise to customers who had searched for 1-800 Contacts online."You would imagine that given the power of these [companies],
and given the activity in Europe and many other nations, our enforcers would be extremely concerned about these platforms. They are-they're
concerned about little companies hurting the platforms," he said.
The FTC, added Pasquale, had pursued the 1-800 Contacts case aggressively. "I'm not here to comment on the merits of this case,
but I think that the choice of this enforcement target speaks volumes. What does it say? It says that if small firms arebeing exploited
or hurt by a big digital behemoth, or think [they]are, don't try in any way to coordinate or maintain your independence. What you
should do is all combine and merge and become a giant, say, contacts firm. In the media, they should all combine and merge and maybe
all be bought by Comcast, so that then they can negotiate with Google in a way that they are relatively of the same size and power.
That's the pro-trust message we're getting under current non-enforcement U.S. antitrust policy."
This neoliberal stooge NEIL IRWIN
does not want to understand elementary things. As one NYT read put it " This article wins the award
for Most Clueless and Eggheaded Economics essay."
Notable quotes:
"... Instead of increased pay we increased debt to give the demand needed to purchase all that extra production and that, of course, led to a crash, and will again if that's the best we can do. So now we are supposed to believe that a tiny increase in real wage growth over a very short period of time is going to make up for 35 years of stagnant wage growth ..."
"... EMichael conveniently forgets that Democrats had a filibuster-proof majority for a while in 2009. A lot of EMichael's list could have been passed during that time. ..."
"Over the last 24 months through March, inflation has come in at 1.4 percent a year, and productivity
growth at 0.6 percent. Those are very low numbers. And in our super simple model, you may expect
average worker wages to have risen only 2 percent. In fact, the average hourly earnings for nonmanagerial
private sector workers rose 2.4 percent a year in that period"
Really, do we really need to be reading this? How about the fact that median real wage growth
has been flat for the past 35 years
hasn't matched productivity during that time period
Instead of increased pay we increased debt to give the demand needed to purchase all that
extra production and that, of course, led to a crash, and will again if that's the best we can
do. So now we are supposed to believe that a tiny increase in real wage growth over a very short
period of time is going to make up for 35 years of stagnant wage growth
You nailed it, first thing out of the box. Here is Irwin's metric of productivity growth plus
inflation compared with nominal wage growth going back 30 years:
Until several years ago, not once did wage growth ever rise as high as Irwin's model said it
should. So now that it does, we have a quandary? Yes we do. The quandary is, why is somebody continuing
to make use of an obviously failed model? Oh, never mind. This is economics, where the data is
thrown out and the model is kept.
It has been over 10 years since a Dem Congress was able to pass legislation to raise the MinWage
in 2007. Dems tied MinWage increases to troop funding in three steps :from $5.15 an hour to $5.85
per hour on July 24, 2007, to $6.55 per hour on July 24, 2008, and to $7.25 an hour on July 24,
2009.
The GOP has refused to let MinWage keep up with inflation and the value of MinWage has fallen.
Companies can pay higher than nominal MinWage and still pay less in real dollars. There is a cost
to training and companies like McDs are paying more to keep training costs down. Also, States
and Cities have their own MinWage laws. As the labor market tightens, workers move out of MinWage
jobs into higher paid jobs. New workers come into MinWage jobs so wages inflate.
This is really only catch up that needs to occur to make up for the losses to the Great Recession.
It is only a worry if you buy into the unsupported notion that the ideal inflation rate is 2%.
The 2% was suggested and became codified with no data or model to support it. Data all point to
the need for a higher inflation rate.
Some very good points. Furthermore, if those 9 workers that were made "obsolete" end up in lower
paying jobs they will also consume less. So the economy as a whole will not need quite as much
"product" and productivity will fall. Consumption of product/services from the private sector
and public sector is about 90% of GDP and that tiny little amount coming from investment only
goes up when demand goes up. So it is all about consumption - and the health of the consumer class.
Democrats could have indexed the minimum wage to inflation in 2009. After all, they had a supermajority.
Instead, they demonstrated their perfidy...just like with union card check. Yet Democrats and
their partisan hacks wonder why workers are fed up with Democrats!!!
EMichael conveniently forgets that Democrats had a filibuster-proof majority for a while in
2009. A lot of EMichael's list could have been passed during that time.
Passing legislation does not necessarily take a long time, given an organized and motivated
Congress. Remember how long it took to pass the Patriot Act? Answer: a month and a half.
Instead of acting on union card check and indexation of the minimum wage, Democrats preferred
to procrastinate...so that they could blame Republicans for their failure to take act on behalf
of American workers.
Uh? The whole article is about what you are saying, questioning the model for failing to explain
the relationship between productivity+inflation and wages both over the last 35 years, when wages
grew more slowly than the model predicted, and now when they are growing slightly faster.
A quote:
"In reality, though, the relationship between unemployment and inflation is not straightforward
and seems to be always moving. Even less is known about the ties between wages and productivity."
Taking it a bit further then if prices fall rather than profits rise from that productivity
improvement then consumers will still have the money to pay displaced workers to do something
else. Rentiers have a low propensity to consume additional services and goods from their domestic
economy when profits rise. They instead store their ill-gotten gains in securities and bank deposits.
Yes, exactly. The models say prices are supposed to drop, because of perfect competition, you
know? And the displaced workers can always find another job. So the column is about economists
wondering whether there is something wrong with their predictive models (you think?).
And I'll reiterate my broken-record complaint about productivity measures: if you measure the
output in dollars, then when (real) productivity rises but prices drop, measured economic productivity
doesn't rise at all. And conversely, if real salaries rise more than prices, measured productivity
drops.
"Blinder: Why, After 200 Years, Can't Economists Sell Free Trade?" From yesterday.
B/C so-called 'Free Trade' favor one group over another. Fair Trade should be the basis for
'Free Trade.'
American Economists are not smart enough to comprehend the "basis" and instead focus on numbers
which are clearly skewed to favor trade and which ignore the effects on those that DO NOT gain
in such deals.
Maybe it would help if Economists thought in metaphors.
Try thinking about music. There are all sorts of genres. Within each some are great and some
are horrible, i.e., a vast variety of degrees of what is great and what is not.
"Maybe it would help if Economists thought in metaphors..."
[Essentially that is what economists already do, although the term most often used is a different
form of abstraction than a metaphor or colloquial meme. Economists think in terms of stylized
facts.]
In social sciences, especially economics, a stylized fact is a simplified presentation of an
empirical finding.[1] A stylized fact is often a broad generalization that summarizes some complicated
statistical calculations, which although essentially true may have inaccuracies in the detail...
*
[When it comes to sorting out the beneficiaries from the losers, then the common measurement
of all things economic is money. Money aggregates is what economists look at in all those stylized
facts. So, the people with the most money naturally matter more in economics.
However, the devil is in the details. Just like Bluefin tuna do not benefit from a higher price
for Bluefin tuna in the short run (nor long run either unless caused by a drastic fall in quota
and catch rather than stock depletion) and fisherman of Bluefin tuna do not benefit from a higher
price of Bluefin tuna in the long run (as they still won't make enough to save and invest adequately
to protect against fishery collapse) and sushi bars don't benefit and sushi eaters do not benefit
then maybe lose-lose is more likely than win-win in economics. But if you were an economists and
said that then you would be out of a job.
Environmental economics makes a lot more sense than monetized economics if we are worried about
the future and quality of life for everyone, but economist do not worry about the future because
"In the end we are all dead" before it becomes time to pay the environmental piper. Besides environmental
economics places much more focus on distribution than wealth and GDP, whereas monetized economics
is just the opposite. So, financialize and securitize to your heart's content because we are on
the path to global destruction.]
RE: Growth, import dependence, and war in the context of international trade
Roberto Bonfatti, Kevin O'Rourke 26 May 2017
Classical models suggest that shifts in the balance of power can lead to conflict, where the
established power has the incentive to trigger war to deter the threat to its dominance. This
column argues that this changes if international trade is taken into account. Industrialisation
requires the import of natural resources, potentially leading a smaller nation to trigger war
either against a resource-rich country or the incumbent nation. The model can help explain the
US-Japanese conflict of 1941 and Hitler's invasion of Poland, and has implications for US-Chinese
relations today...
[I am not buying into ANY of THESE narratives regarding the risks of geopolitical instability
attributable to increased levels of global economic integration, but I do really like how the
authors pose these narratives which all fly in the face of the old saw about global economic integration
ushering in a sustained period of world peace.
Indeed globalization has never stopped warring before. It did not prevent WW-I. Yes, there
was lots of world trade before container ships and the free movement of capital. Container ships
and the free movement of capital just lowered the cost of extended supply chains such that international
wage arbitrage made greater global integration profitable for owners of capital well after most
other comparative advantages of international competition had become moot.
Global economic integration via the international settlement of accounts regime under the gold
standard was a principle cause of the Great Depression which in turn greatly exacerbated "The
Economic Consequences of the Peace." The Versailles Treaty was a "Carthaginian peace" Keynes convincingly
argued and it did indeed lead to WW-II with Germany in the grips of the Great Depression fitfully
reasserting its self determination.
I do not even believe that war poses the greatest risk to geopolitical instability in the current
century. The H-bomb has done a lot to limit the severity of international hostility even if it
has done nothing to reduce the frequency since the end of the Cold War.
The role of the greatest risks to geopolitical instability in the current century I expect
to be filled by various supply side and demand side shocks delivered by the unnatural events of
Nature under its present climate change regime. Floods, draughts, typhoons, and even earthquakes
(yep - both rising ocean and melting glaciers are unsteadying the steady pressure of Earthly masses
on its tectonic plates - recipe for earthquakes second only to asteroids) all continue to be both
more frequent and more severe. In an integrated global economy any catastrophe of economic significance
in one country (or more) is not only propagated in its economic effects to all of its trading
partners around the world, but those effects become magnified as the integration between those
trading partners reverberate the effects. This is globalization's economic shock multiplier effect.
Falling tides wreck all boats. This century is still young, but fortunately enough for me that
I am not.]
It is drying up outside now after two days of rain and no one has slapped me with the other side
of this story yet. So, I will have to slap myself while I am still conveniently at hand to answer
the challenge.
If not for globalization then worldwide poverty would likely be the greatest risk to geopolitical
instability in the current century instead of climate change, which would also make climate change
even more deadly and difficult to deal with. However, globalization in its present degree and
form was the chosen rather than only possible means of turning the tide against global poverty.
First off, the major emerging economies were each capable of doing quite a lot on their own and
a lot more with just a little help in the form of capital and technology. It was the choice of
the west to engage in private trade rather than foreign aid to achieve these ends. That choice
came about because corporations have a greater control of western governments than western governments
have control of corporations. Corporations seeded that choice both through their own generosity
to the campaigns of politicians and via a public relations campaign against giving foreign aid
to those people. Corporations preferred to just give those people our jobs and skip the middle
man, the taxpayer.
"... Neoliberal economics denies that for real economic agents networks are of primary important. ..."
"... I'm beginning to hate the word "free". It is so vague and so often misused that I'm beginning to think it should just be banned. It is a hindrance to communication. ..."
Free trade works with he assumption that the winners share their profits with the losers, creating
a win-win or at least win-no lose scenario. However, the same people who preach free trade tend
to suggest to "reform" the welfare state, a.k.a. annihilating it, eliminating the very assumption
that makes free trade supposedly a pareto improvement.
Plus economists only argue with money and commodities. Free trade moves jobs abroad, destroying
lifes and communities. This non-monetary cost is not included in the models that prove the advantages
of free trade.
In terms Blinder might understand: "Alan, if you let me murder you, I will give each of your
children and grandchildren $10,000. That's money they wouldn't otherwise receive. You're cool
with that, right?"
"Free trade works with he assumption that the winners share their profits with the losers,
creating a win-win or at least win-no lose scenario"
Nonsense. Free trade, local or international, is about trading labor for labor. There are no
winners or losers. Economies must be zero sum. A free trade means neither you nor I do AAA nothing
for the other that puts us at a disadvantage. Since Reagan made free lunch economics cool, most
economists reject labor as the core of the economy.
Free lunch economics seeks to eliminate labor from the economy as a purely burdensome cost.
Instead, free lunch economics worships money with no connection to labor. But money is, at its
core, simply a proxy for labor. But with free lunch economists constantly rejecting labor as a
burden to be cut and eliminated, trade increasingly becomes about monopoly power and rents, but
that requires eliminating free trade.
The problems with trade in the US is free lunch economists have justified and given authority
to trade US property, land, assets away in exchange for labor by Asians who needed assets to develop.
Assets like fossil fuels, iron ore, etc.
Milton Friedman argued that we Americans become wealthier getting labor produced consumption
goods in exchange for giving them our property in a frequently cite 1978 lecture. Ie, he advanced
the idea that labor is not what trade is about.
Yet, you will never find an economist describing the advantage of free trade by saying nation
one's capitalists make its workers unemployed in order to have nation two's workers do all the
work.
That's the wonder of free lunch economics. Describe free trade in terms of trading labor. Then
immediately argue that it's better to trade, not labor, but assets for labor, making workers in
both nations better off....
The rhetoric is clever, and liberals grew lazy and failed to think about the flaws in free
lunch economics of Friedman, et al, since.
After 200 years it has finally gotten to the point where free trade promoters are having trouble
selling their snake oil. The biggest problem is that 'free' trade isn't free at all. It is a series
of deals heavily negotiated on behalf of the industries that benefit from them...labor, indigenous
groups, and environmentalists are nowhere to be found at the negotiating table...only multinational
corporations hoping to get a free lunch...or as close to it as possible...in return for the gobs
of money they invested in Democrats and Republicans.
Sad that it has taken 200 years to figure this out.
Workers love to screw themselves because they believe they will keep getting high wages even if
they pay every other worker low wages. Do you complain that food prices are too low resulting
in food workers being paid too little?
If you are not calling for higher food prices, then you better believe food workers want your
wages slashed so the price of what you produce for them can be afforded by someone making $15,000
a year.
No one forces any American worker to buy Chinese made goods, or any import. Instead, US workers
kill their own jobs paying prices that are too low to be produced by US workers.
But not even Bernie calls for higher prices paid by all workers so US workers can produce everything
at good 60s era union wage levels. Food was more expensive then. Clothing more expensive. Vacations
like those many take today were very expensive, so vacations then were spartan: visiting relatives,
or camping in government parks or staying at a cabin with an outhouse and no electricity.
Maybe economists could sell free trade if they were not standing if front of what looks like a
concrete prison wall fidgeting with their microphone.
I find it mildly amusing that economists who believe in rational expectations and rational
consumers cannot understand why people are too stupid to get free trade. Experience cognitive
dissonance much?
Only an economist who does not understand business would say that it does not pay to advertise
a book before it's out.
I have an idea what's wrong with ration expectations theory that falls out of work I've done on
self organizing radio networks.
One of the biggest problems when trying to reason about these networks if that the actual nodes
have very limited information about the layout of the network. It's vital to take that into account
when developing strategies for maintaining the network without having a central controller.
I find that people have a really really hard time letting go over an over-all mental model
of what is happening and way. Turns out none of the information that the nodes have is totally
unambiguous. It's always ambiguous and limited and poorly sampled.
That's the central problem with the rational expectations model right there. In real life the
actors do not have anything close to sufficient, well sampled, unambiguous information to work
off of. Even if they did, cognitive load is an issue.
Real life actors tend to punt and work on developing trusted economic associations with other
economic actors. My experience is this takes years to develop. Yet neoliberals don't place any
value on those trusted networks and work to destroy them because they see them as inefficient.
It is worse than that. Economists don't have a model that works, but they assume that each and
every actor in the market does. That is a crazy assumption.
Places are created by import substitution. Free trade makes import substitution harder. That means
places like cities, states and even nations, have found it increasingly difficult to be somewhere
as opposed to some trading post or colony. People like to live somewhere as opposed to nowhere.
Shouldn't ignore 170 years of Western protectionism which led to wealth, followed by 30 years
of total destruction under free trade ,
May 25, 2017 at 07:55 PM
Economists need to study history. They needed to be told about East Asia and should travel around
the destroyed cities of the US. Economists should let the people of Detroit how wonderful things
have gone since the US abandoned protectionism in the early 1970s.
There is a whole lot of truth in your comment. Economists (and policy makers) should look at East
Asian countries and really take into account how export focused economies HAVE managed to improve
the standard of living of their citizens so greatly. And they have managed that- and it is a very
good thing overall. But it has had costs for many here in the US who were not in a position to
bear those costs and there has not been any nearly adequate attempt to help them bear those costs.
Economists should sell free trade in Youngstown, Camden, Cleveland, East St. Louis - tell them
the world was terrible in the 1950s when the US had high tariffs ,
May 25, 2017 at 08:18 PM
Economists should host the next AEA meeting in Youngstown.
Free trade, like free markets, are both tools of the neoliberal agenda moreso than sound principles
applicable to the real world.
Markets with few or no rules and enforcement to prevent the strong and well connected from
victimizing others resides the fundamental assumption that people are naturally rational and with
the character of angels.
Anyone who has ever driven on a freeway knows that this assumption representative a fatal error.
"Free trade, like free markets, are both tools of the neoliberal agenda moreso than sound principles
applicable to the real world."
Exactly -- The key word here is "tools". They are used as a tools of achieving specific, pretty
nefarious goals.
What is interesting is that neoliberals redefined the meaning of "free" as "unregulated" and
pushed to use it in this "double" meaning, instead of the proper word "fair".
Neoliberals never use the term "fair trade". That's Anathema to them.
That redefinition is actually pretty subtle and pretty devious. Really Orwellian semantic trick.
Compare with "The Ministry of Truth, which concerned itself with news, entertainment, education,
and the fine arts. The Ministry of Peace, which concerned itself with war. The Ministry of Love,
which maintained..."
As Reason once commented in this blog: "I'm beginning to hate the word free".
There is no free trade - only negotiated and regulated trade and dominant nations always get
better terms.
Foreign nations are very suspicious if, for example, the USA reps talk about "free trade" ;-)
Historically GB was the promoter. In this case, free trade was simply one of the mechanisms
of empire in the age of industrialism, one part of the wealth pump that allows to concentrate
the wealth of the globe in Britain during the years of its imperial dominion. Manufactured good
carried huge premium in price. For example, they completely destroyed textile industry in India
to eliminate competition. Opium wars is another good example here.
It's role is pretty similar for the United States today. In a very interesting way it is combined
with "debt slavery" for the most of that nations on the globe.
Kind unique combination, typical for neoliberalism.
It also exists within the web of military treaties that lock allies and vassal nations into
a condition of dependence on the imperial center, as well as enforce the dominant currency in
which international trade is carried out.
It requires a keen eye to look at the history and pay attention to the direction in which the
benefits of "free trade" flow.
But in reality the USA has very little to do with "free trade". The USA practices "selective
protectionism" hypocritically disguised as "free trade".
"... We also have actively been pushing for longer and stronger patent and copyright protections.
While these protections, like all forms of protectionism, serve a purpose, they are 180 degrees
at odds with free trade. And, they are very costly.
Patent protection in prescription drugs will lead to us pay more than $440 billion this
year for drugs that would likely sell for less than $80 billion in a free market. The difference
of $360 billion comes to almost $3,000 a year for every family in the country. ..."
"... Stop using the term "free trade" at all...when wall street bankers and hedge fund managers
and the corporate media use the term "free trade", what they are really talking about is labor
arbitrage. Shifting factories to nations with the lowest worker living standards, health, safety
and environmental standards. It usually means a nation without a democracy, run by either oligarchs
or despots. ..."
I never said that - the word I hated was "freedom", because it has been badly abused (and it is
often not clear what it is). Freedom is only ever relative (i.e. you can't increase one aspect
of freedom without impingement of another in some way). That is not the same as the adjective
"free" - which not an concept relating to a universal state - I know what free entry to a museum
is.
reason : Reply Thursday, March 23, 2017 at 02:20 AM , March 23, 2017 at 02:20 AM
Is the question "Are there Benefits from Free Trade" - different from the question "Are
there Benefits from Trade"? What work is word "free" doing here - and what does it even mean?
I'm beginning to hate the word "free". It is so vague and so often misused that I'm
beginning to think it should just be banned. It is a hindrance to communication.
"... Neoliberals see inequality as the driver that makes 'free markets' efficient. They aren't going to give that up any time soon. ..."
"... Not only that. Neoliberalism also claims that higher inequality leads to faster economic growth and that all will benefit as a result. Which proved to be false. They advocate essentially as John Kenneth Galbraith aptly put: "If you feed enough oats to the horse, some will pass through to feed the sparrows." ..."
"Neoliberals see inequality as the driver that makes 'free
markets' efficient. They aren't going to give that up any
time soon."
Not only that. Neoliberalism also claims
that higher inequality leads to faster economic growth and
that all will benefit as a result. Which proved to be
false. They advocate essentially as John Kenneth Galbraith
aptly put: "If you feed enough oats to the horse, some
will pass through to feed the sparrows."
Back in 2011 VDARE posted a
commentary of mine on the legitimacy of the "Cultural Marxist" concept. (I reluctantly accepted
the term only because I couldn't think of a better one.)
As I pointed out, this ideology was very far from orthodox Marxism and was viewed by
serious
Marxists as a kind of bastard child. Yet many of those designated as "Cultural Marxists" still
viewed themselves as classical Marxists and some still do.
Like orthodox Marxists, they viewed the bourgeoisie as a counterrevolutionary class. Like orthodox
Marxists, they viewed the world, arguably simplistically, in terms of interest groups and power
relationships. Like orthodox Marxists-whose break from Victorian classical liberalism in this
respect was shocking in a way that is easily overlooked after the totalitarian experience of the
twentieth century-they explicitly eschewed debate in favor of reviling and if possible repressing
their opponents. (This is fundamental to the Marxist method: although
it claims to be "scientific"
, it is in fact an a priori value system that
rejects debate and its concomitant, "bourgeois science".
Hence Political Correctness-the
most prominent
product of "cultural Marxism" .) Like orthodox Marxist, they supported, at least in principle,
a socialist i.e. government-controlled economy. Like orthodox Marxists, they inclined, in varying
degrees, toward the Communist side during the Cold War. (
Marcuse , who
cheered the
Soviet suppression
of the Hungarian uprising in 1956, was an outright Stalinist-as I can confirm from personal
knowledge as his onetime student.)
These disciples of the Frankfurt School, like Marx, were eager to replace what they defined as
bourgeois society by a new social order. In this envisaged new order, humankind would experience
true equality for the first time. This would be possible because, in a politically and socially reconstructed
society, we would no longer be alienated from our real selves, which had been warped by the inequalities
that existed until now.
But unlike authentic Marxists, Cultural Marxists have been principally opposed to the culture
of bourgeois societies -- and only secondarily to their material arrangements.
Homophobia ,
nationalism , Christianity,
masculinity
, and anti-Semitism have been the prime villains in the Cultural Marxist script.
This is especially true as one moves from the philosophy of the interwar German founders of the
Frankfurt school, like Theodore Adorno, Max Horkheimer and Herbert Marcuse, to the second generation.
This second generation is represented by
Jürgen
Habermas and most of the multicultural theorists ensconced in Western universities.
For these more advanced Cultural Marxists, the
crusade against
capitalism has been increasingly subordinated to the war against "prejudice" and "discrimination."
They justify the need for a centralized bureaucratic state commanding material resources not because
it will bring the working class to power, but to fight "racism," "fascism," and the other residues
of the Western past.
If they can't accomplish such radical change, Cultural Marxists are happy to work toward revolutionizing
our consciousness with the help of Leftist moneybags–
hedge fund managers, Mark
Zuckerberg
etc. Ironically, nationalizing productive forces and the creation of a workers' state, i.e. the
leftovers from classical Marxism, turn out to be the most expendable part of their revolutionary
program, perhaps because of the collapse of the embarrassing collapse of
command economies
in the Soviet bloc
. Instead, what is essential to Cultural Marxism is the rooting-out of bourgeois national structures,
the
obliteration of
gender roles and the utter devastation of "the
patriarchal
family."
Not only does Cultural Marxism exist, but it now appears to be taking over Conservatism Inc. Thus
even
with Paris burning , National Review was still
attacking the Right . In the second round of the French election, Tom Rogan urged a vote for
Emmanuel Macron on the grounds Marine Le Pen is insufficiently hostile to Vladimir Putin and is a
"socialist" because she "supports protectionism." Macron's actual onetime membership in the Socialist
Party, and his view that there was
no such thing as French culture, apparently was not a problem [
French election: American Conservatives Should Support Macron , April 24, 2017].
Conservatism Inc. goes along because these goals are partially achieved through corporate capitalists,
who actively push Leftist social agendas and punish entire communities if they're insufficiently
enthusiastic about gay marriage, gay scout leaders, transgendered rest rooms, sanctuary cities etc..
Wedded as it is to a clichéd defense of the "free market," the Beltway Right not only won't oppose
this plutocratic agenda, but instead offers tax cuts to the wealthiest and most malevolent actors.
It is because Cultural Marxism can co-exist with our current economic and political structure
that our so-called "conservatives" are far more likely to align with the New Left than the Old Right.
The behavior of our own captains of industry shows the rot is deep and that multiculturalism is very
much part of American "liberal democratic" thinking, even informing our bogus conservatism. "Conservatism"
is now defined as waging endless wars in the name of
universalist
values that any other generation would have
called radically leftist. And Cultural Marxists themselves now define what we call "Western values"-for
example, accepting homosexuality
The takeover is so complete, we might even say "Cultural Marxism" has outlived its usefulness
as a label or as a description of a hostile foreign ideology. Instead, we're dealing with "conservatives,"
who are, in many ways, more extreme and more destructive than the Frankfurt School itself.
Many conservatives seem to believe Cultural Marxism is just a foreign eccentricity somehow smuggled
into our country. Allan Bloom's "
conservative " bestseller The Closing of the American Mind [
PDF ]
contended that multiculturalism was just another example of "The German Connection." This is
ludicrous.
Case in point: unlike Horkheimer, or my onetime teacher Herbert Marcuse, leading writers within
Conservatism Inc. are sympathetic to something like
gay marriage . These include:
Indeed, homosexual liberation is so central to modern conservatism that the Beltway Right's pundits
urge American soldiers to impose it at bayonet point around the world. Kirchick complains we haven't
pressed the Russian "thug" Vladimir Putin hard enough to accept such "conservative" features of public
life as gay pride parades. [
Why Putin's Defense of "Traditional Values" Is Really A War on Freedom , by
James Kirchick, Foreign Policy, January 3, 2014]
Another frequent
contributor
to National Review , Jillian Kay Melchior, expressed concern that American withdrawal
from Ukraine might expose that region to greater Russian control and thereby diminish rights for
the transgendered. [
Ukrainians are still alone in their heroic fight for freedom , New York Post,
October 8, 2015]
If that's how our Respectable Right reacts to social issues, then it may be ridiculous to continue
denouncing the original Cultural Marxists. Our revolutionary thinking has whizzed past those iconoclastic
German Jews who created the Frankfurt Institute in the 1920s and then moved their enterprise to the
US in the 1930s. Blaming these long-dead intellectuals for our present aberrations may be like blaming
Nazi atrocities on Latin fascists in 1920. We're better served by examining those who selectively
adopted the original model to find out what really happened.
At this point we should ask not whether the Frankfurt School continues to cast a shadow over us
but instead ask why are "conservatives" acquiescing to or even championing reforms more radical than
anything one encounters in Adorno and Horkheimer?
Admittedly, Conservatism Inc. has drifted so far to the Left that one no longer blinks in surprise
when a
respected conservative journalist extolls Leon Trotsky and the Communist Abraham Lincoln Brigade
in the Spanish Civil War. Yet it's still startling to see just how far left the Beltway
"Right" has moved on social issues. Even more noteworthy is how unwilling the movement is to see
any contradiction between this process and the claim they are "conservatives."
And let's not pretend that Conservatism Inc. is simply running a "Big Tent." Those who
direct the top-down
Beltway Right are eager to reach out to the Left, providing those they recruit share their belligerent
interventionist foreign policy views and do nothing to offend neoconservative benefactors,
while purging everything on their right .
This post-Christian, post-bourgeois consensus is now centered in the US and in affiliate Western
countries and transmitted through our culture industry, educational system, Deep-State bureaucracy,
and Establishment political parties.
The Beltway Right operates like front parties under the old Soviet system. Like those parties,
our Establishment Right tries to "fit in" by dutifully undermining those to its the Right and slowly
absorbing the social positions and
heroes of the
Left .
Occasionally it catches hell for not moving fast enough to the Left. But this only bolsters the
image of Conservatism, Inc. as defenders of traditional America against the Left-an image that it
won't lose even as it veers farther in the direction of its supposed adversary.
In short, Conservatism Inc. is not just a scam-but it's become a Cultural Marxist puppet. And
the
Dissident Right consists of those who can see through it.
"... Noah Smith recently offered an interesting take * on the real reasons austerity garners so much support from elites, no matter how badly it fails in practice. Elites, he argues, see economic distress as an opportunity to push through "reforms" - which basically means changes they want, which may or may not actually serve the interest of promoting economic growth - and oppose any policies that might mitigate crisis without the need for these changes ..."
"... What Smith didn't note, somewhat surprisingly, is that his argument is very close to Naomi Klein's "Shock Doctrine," with its argument that elites systematically exploit disasters to push through neoliberal policies even if these policies are essentially irrelevant to the sources of disaster. I have to admit that I was predisposed to dislike Klein's book when it came out, probably out of professional turf-defending and whatever - but her thesis really helps explain a lot about what's going on in Europe in particular. ..."
"... Two and a half years ago Mike Konczal *** reminded us of a classic 1943 (!) essay by Michal Kalecki, who suggested that business interests hate Keynesian economics because they fear that it might work - and in so doing mean that politicians would no longer have to abase themselves before businessmen in the name of preserving confidence. This is pretty close to the argument that we must have austerity, because stimulus might remove the incentive for structural reform that, you guessed it, gives businesses the confidence they need before deigning to produce recovery. ..."
The Smith/Klein/Kalecki Theory of Austerity
By Paul Krugman
Noah Smith recently offered an interesting take * on the real reasons austerity garners
so much support from elites, no matter how badly it fails in practice. Elites, he argues, see
economic distress as an opportunity to push through "reforms" - which basically means changes
they want, which may or may not actually serve the interest of promoting economic growth - and
oppose any policies that might mitigate crisis without the need for these changes :
"I conjecture that 'austerians' are concerned that anti-recessionary macro policy will allow
a country to 'muddle through' a crisis without improving its institutions. In other words, they
fear that a successful stimulus would be wasting a good crisis....
"If people really do think that the danger of stimulus is not that it might fail, but that
it might succeed, they need to say so. Only then, I believe, can we have an optimal public discussion
about costs and benefits."
As he notes, the day after he wrote that post, Steven Pearlstein ** of the Washington Post
made exactly that argument for austerity.
What Smith didn't note, somewhat surprisingly, is that his argument is very close to Naomi
Klein's "Shock Doctrine," with its argument that elites systematically exploit disasters to push
through neoliberal policies even if these policies are essentially irrelevant to the sources of
disaster. I have to admit that I was predisposed to dislike Klein's book when it came out, probably
out of professional turf-defending and whatever - but her thesis really helps explain a lot about
what's going on in Europe in particular.
And the lineage goes back even further. Two and a half years ago Mike Konczal *** reminded
us of a classic 1943 (!) essay by Michal Kalecki, who suggested that business interests hate Keynesian
economics because they fear that it might work - and in so doing mean that politicians would no
longer have to abase themselves before businessmen in the name of preserving confidence. This
is pretty close to the argument that we must have austerity, because stimulus might remove the
incentive for structural reform that, you guessed it, gives businesses the confidence they need
before deigning to produce recovery.
And sure enough, in my inbox this morning I see a piece more or less deploring the early signs
of success for Abenomics: Abenomics is working - but it had better not work too well. **** Because
if it works, how will we get structural reform?
So one way to see the drive for austerity is as an application of a sort of reverse Hippocratic
oath: "First, do nothing to mitigate harm." For the people must suffer if neoliberal reforms are
to prosper.
"... the recent news as for Rich Seth murder might take Trump probe in a somewhat different direction and put additional pressure of neoliberal, Pelosi-Clinton part of the party leadership. If half of what was recently reported is true, Clapper-Brennan "Intelligence assessment" looks more and more like Warren Commission report. ..."
"... ... Then, Newt Gingrich, on Fox News, says: " (Rich) was assassinated at 4 in the morning after having giving Wikileaks something like 53,000 emails and 17,000 attachments. Nobody's investigating that. And what does that tell you about what is going on?" ..."
Pence is worse than Trump. And he is more likely to get two terms.
In the meantime, nothing gets fixed.
Anyone who wants single-payer, better jobs, etc. should focus on the 2018 elections and work for
people who can oust people like Nancy Pelosi in the primaries and Republicans in the general.
"Pence is worse than Trump. And he is more likely to get two terms.In the meantime, nothing gets
fixed."
True. Also the recent news as for Rich Seth murder might take Trump probe in a somewhat different
direction and put additional pressure of neoliberal, Pelosi-Clinton part of the party leadership. If half of what was recently reported is true, Clapper-Brennan "Intelligence assessment" looks
more and more like Warren Commission report.
... Then, Newt Gingrich, on Fox News, says: " (Rich) was assassinated at 4 in the morning after
having giving Wikileaks something like 53,000 emails and 17,000 attachments. Nobody's investigating
that. And what does that tell you about what is going on?"
Well, we know that Kim's chances of attracting Congressional interest was just about nil, but
then Sean Hannity invited Dotcom to discuss his evidence in the Seth Rich case on his shows.
Stay tuned. Public invitation Kim Dotcom to be a guest on radio and TV. #GameChanger Buckle up
destroy Trump media. Sheep that u all are!!! https://t.co/3qLwXCGl6z
- Sean Hannity (@seanhannity) May 20, 2017
Most recently, he tweeted:
Complete panic has set in at the highest levels of the Democratic Party. Any bets when the
kitchen sink is dumped on my head?? https://t.co/Zt2gIX4zyq
- Sean Hannity (@seanhannity) May 22, 2017
"... Being able to access care is an important freedom as well ..."
"... Trump as candidate promised no cuts to Medicaid. But then he had to get the Paul Ryan seal of approval so it is a massive cut that will leave 10 million people uninsured: ..."
"... Republicans have been using free lunch economic theory to make increasingly bigger promises leading to Trump promising universal health care with no taxes or mandates that will give everyone many more choices on getting far more health care with it costing much less. Trump won by being more extreme and explicit in the free lunch promises the Republican started making with Reagan. ..."
"... It's just standard Reaganomics... the same propaganda (trickle-down & rising tides) & standard tax cuts for the rich based on supply side b.s. ..."
This is an important concept that has been fought for but hasn't been well articulated by Dems
since Four Freedoms.
ACA is an example. It provides insurance coverage for many and a measure of security for nearly
everyone. It reduces the risk of living as an American, nominally limiting the "freedom" to benuninsurednor
buy crappy insurance in exchange for giving everyone enhanced ability to access preventative and
major medical care, even if low income or stricken with a pre-ex medical condition.
Being able to access care is an important freedom as well .
Dems really face planted politically trying to sell this notion, but now that it is under threat
of being taken away, Americans suddenly realized they like it and think it is right that people
should have this access.
Trump as candidate promised no cuts to Medicaid. But then he had to get the Paul Ryan seal of
approval so it is a massive cut that will leave 10 million people uninsured:
Progressives see conservatives as winning by hijacking the Republican Party and being more and
more radical, making Congress totally incapable of doing anything and increasingly popular, and
getting Trump elected with a minority of the vote to an environment where he can accomplish even
less that very moderate Obama and a Democratic majority, and they want Democrats to become more
like Republicans:
able to win power, but unable to deliver on anything.
Republicans have been using free lunch economic theory to make increasingly bigger promises
leading to Trump promising universal health care with no taxes or mandates that will give everyone
many more choices on getting far more health care with it costing much less. Trump won by being
more extreme and explicit in the free lunch promises the Republican started making with Reagan.
Progressives want a Bernie elected making big free lunch promises.
"... "Corporate media and the intelligence community are united in making the Russia Federation the scapegoat for the crumbling of the West that is due to austerity, inequality and impoverishment. If a world war breaks out, that is it." ..."
"... Donald Trump used alt-right messaging to get into the White House but he and his third-rate staff haven't the slightest clue of what gave rise to the deplorables in the first place and how to address the root [causes of] despair of the western working class. ..."
A comment from MoA contains an insightful observation
"Corporate media and the intelligence community are united in making the Russia Federation
the scapegoat for the crumbling of the West that is due to austerity, inequality and impoverishment.
If a world war breaks out, that is it."
This is tragic. Corporate media and the intelligence community are united in making the
Russia Federation the scapegoat for the crumbling of the West that is due to austerity, inequality
and impoverishment.
If a world war breaks out, that is it. Donald Trump used alt-right messaging to get
into the White House but he and his third-rate staff haven't the slightest clue of what gave
rise to the deplorables in the first place and how to address the root [causes of] despair of the western
working class.
They will blunder about in lost befuddlement until they vanish.
"... GR: Then in the beginning of the 2000s comes the beginning of your work with Professor Raghuram Rajan on "rules of the game." You looked at who's setting the rules of the game, who is influencing the rules ofthe game, and what we learn. ..."
"... GR: For decades, economists and other scholars dedicated a lot of intellectual energy to look at the relationship between companies, shareholders and executives, and between shareholders and boards. Maybe there's not enough intellectual energy going into the question of who sets the rules of the game that determine the outcomes and the dynamics in finance? ..."
"... GR: When it comes to politics, many times data aremuch more complicated and debatable, and ambiguous in many ways. When you deal with numbers and with asset prices, maybe it's easier to go with the data than when you go into the realms of politics. ..."
"... GR: Let's talk a little bit about the research that will be presented in this conference. I'll start with the most politically-sensitive paper that we have, a very interesting paper looking into the Obama administration and more than 2,000 meetings that President Obama and his chief aides had with businessmen over the last eight years. I don't know if you could call it crony capitalism, but whatever is happening out there didn't start in the Trump administration. ..."
"... GR: Another paper looks again at the United States and the way that decisions on bailouts of banks were decided after the financial crisis. Can you elaborate a bit on that? ..."
"... GR: When you're ignoring politics, the outcome many times would be to give more power in the market of ideas and in policies to vested interests, to the powerful? ..."
"... GR: Luigi Zingales, thank you very much. ..."
Ahead of the Stigler Center'sconference on the political economy of finance, we interviewed
Stigler Center Director Luigi Zingales about the motivation behind the first-of-its-kind conference.
On June 1-2, the Stigler Center will host a
first-of-its-kind conference focusing on the role of politics in finance research. In the last
twenty years, political considerations have played an increasingly important role in financial economics:
from the design of the rules that make financial markets viable to politically-motivated changes
in bankruptcy law, from political connections in firms to the effects of political uncertainty on
investments. Yet up until now, no conference has been dedicated to it.
Ahead of this conference, we interviewed University of Chicago Booth School of Business Professor
and Stigler Center Director Luigi Zingales [also, one of the editors of this blog] about the motivation
behind it and the political economy of finance.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/jB1b2T0QtFk
The following is a transcript of the interview, slightly edited for clarity:
Guy Rolnik: I was surprised to understand that, actually, there are not many conferences
on the politics of finance.
GR: Why is it that there aren't many conferences on the political economy of finance? You would
think that politics has a lot to do with finance.
LZ: I think historically, people have not looked at that aspect a lot. I would like to divide
the brief history of the academic field of finance into three periods: I would call the first one-that
started in the late '50s-the Modigliani and Miller period. Modigliani and Miller, to simplify to
the extreme, said that the way you slice a pizza does not change the size of the pizza. This is a
period in which basically finance is irrelevant, and the only frictions that matter are probably
only tax frictions.
Then, starting with the '70s, people realized: "Wait a second. If you start to divide a pizza
before you produce the pizza, maybe this will have some impact on how the pizza is produced." This
is what in jargon goes under "agency," or "asymmetric information." Essentially, the way you allocate
the cash flows of the firm has some impact on the way the firm is run.
However, all this is in the context of, "The external rules are fixed. We're in a very predetermined
society and the rules are fixed. That's what we do."
Starting with the '90s and then the 2000s, people realized that the rules are not fixed, that
actually the changing nature of the rules is very important, and of course, political gain is what
makes the rules change.
GR: So this is where the 2008 financial crisis comes in, and after the financial crisis people
started to develop a lot of interest in the role of politics in financial crises and the role of
politics in finance.
LZ: To be honest, I think things started before the financial crisis. I think probably the intellectual
origin of all this is the theory of incomplete contracts developed by Grossman and Hart, where because
the cash flow is bargain ex post, then the rules are more fluid. Then this call for renegotiation,
or re-discussion, which is to a large degree about politics, comes into the game.
One of the early papers about this is a paper by Patrick Bolton and Howard Rosenthal-a finance
guy and a political scientist-looking at how renegotiation of debt and the rules for bankruptcy change
dramatically with the business cycle. Every major financial crisis in the United States had the bankruptcy
rules restated to some extent, or reshaped.
Traditionally, finance people thought about bankruptcy as a given. Now [they] realize it is not
a given, that the rules change. How do they change? They're politically determined. Of course, for
the misbeliever, the financial crisis brought this to an attention that could not be ignored.
We've seen the work by Amir Sufi and Atif Mian and Francesco Trebbi looking at the political determinants
of the intervention on TARP, and the work that Amit Seru and co-authors have done on the politics
around regulation and how ineffective regulation is because of political constraints.
I think that by the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century, politics has become mainstream
and was overdue to have a conference dedicated to it.
GR: Then in the beginning of the 2000s comes the beginning of your work with Professor
Raghuram Rajan on "rules of the game." You looked at who's setting the rules of the game, who is
influencing the rules ofthe game, and what we learn.
LZ: I think that in the late '90s and early 2000, there was a big interest inwhy countries are
not more financially developed. Thanks to the work of Andrei Shleifer and Robert Vishny and others,
there was this importance of the law as a major factor.
Raghuram and I asked the very simple question: if it is as simple as importing a code from another
country, why don't more countries do it? It cannot be just a lack of technical expertise. Lawyers
are expensive but can be imported. In fact, Russia did import the best lawyers from the United States.
I'm not sure it was a big success.
The conclusion was, no, it's lack of political will. We started to open the debate for, say, "Look,
finance does benefit most people, but hurts others." So there is a political economy even with [the]
introduction of financial laws.
GR: For decades, economists and other scholars dedicated a lot of intellectual energy to
look at the relationship between companies, shareholders and executives, and between shareholders
and boards. Maybe there's not enough intellectual energy going into the question of who sets the
rules of the game that determine the outcomes and the dynamics in finance?
LZ: I think that the role of conferences like the one here at the Stigler Center is to bring together
scholars who work in a certain area, and also give confidence that this area is important, and attract
more research.
You're absolutely right, people tend to research where the data are. The famous old joke about
economists, that they look where the light is, not where they lost the key, has some element of truth.
In finance, there are things that we can observe very well and compensation is one. You're going
to have a lot of papers about managerial compensation.
But I think what is important is that even data are endogenous, in a sense. Compustat ExecuComp,
which is the primary data source to study this stuff, was created in the early '90s as a result of
academic interest in executive compensation.
Going back in history, CRSP, the Center for Research in Security Prices here at Chicago, which
is the main data source for security prices research, was created by Jim Lorie, a faculty here, who
saw people like Eugene Fama and others interested in this topic and said, "We have to create a data
set to analyze."
The role of academia is, in a sense, to open new avenues and then have a data provider follow.
GR: When it comes to politics, many times data aremuch more complicated and debatable,
and ambiguous in many ways. When you deal with numbers and with asset prices, maybe it's easier to
go with the data than when you go into the realms of politics.
LZ: There are two aspects: one, there are fewer data coming from thepolitical world than from
the asset pricing world, even from corporate finance. Even those data tend not to be disclosed and
available as much as data on companies. Data on lobbying now start to be widely available. Data on
campaign contributions start to be available. The data on corporate donations tend to be more difficult.
They're not as established.
Then there is a more difficult problem to tackle: in a sense, politics is much more fluid. Whenever
data are available, the deals move somewhere else. As researchers, we're always fighting the last
war because we look at what happened in the past, but politics run ahead.
GR: Let's talk a little bit about the research that will be presented in this conference.
I'll start with the most politically-sensitive paper that we have, a very interesting
paper looking into the Obama administration
and more than 2,000 meetings that President Obama and his chief aides had with businessmen over the
last eight years. I don't know if you could call it crony capitalism, but whatever is happening out
there didn't start in the Trump administration.
LZ: Certainly. I think it's actually very healthy, and one of the goals of this conference is
to bring this research from analyzing foreign countries to analyzing the United States. It's much
easier to point fingers toward other people. When
Ray Fisman
wrote the first paper on the political connections of Suharto, everybody clapped. Why? Because
it's Indonesia and corruption in Indonesia is something that we think is granted.
Now, when people apply the same technique to the United States of America, a lot of people [are]
up in arms and say, "Oh, it's impossible. This is not corruption." But if it worked as a technique
for Suharto, why can't it work for Trump, or for Obama, or for people before?
I don't think that these results are specific to the Obama administration. I think that the data
are better in recent years, and so, the paper analyzed that rather than analyzing George W. Bush,
or Bill Clinton.
GR: Another paper looks again at the United States and the way that decisions on bailouts
of banks were decided after the financial crisis. Can you elaborate a bit on that?
LZ: Again, I think that it's not surprising to international scholars that the allocation of aid,
the allocation of credit, and particularly the allocation of bailout credit to banks is very politically-determined.
This research is showing that surprise, surprise, without a doubt, in the United States the same
happens. I think it's a good example [that]what we've learned analyzing countries around the world
can be applied to the United States.
GR: We do look internationally at this conference, and we have an interesting paper on Chile.
Chile is a very interesting case for many reasons. One of them, of course, is that for many decades,
Chile was the "poster child" of a successful market economy in South America. Recently, people have
been looking into the details of what's happening in this economy, and they see some other perspectives
on Chile that were not as salient as before.
LZ: I will distinguish two things: First of all, I think that Chile is a fantastic example of
the difference between being pro-market and being pro-business. I think that Chile has been very
much pro-business, but there is no doubt that it was a huge success in terms of growth. On the other
hand, I think there is not enough antitrust policies, or attention to political connections. The
result is that the income distribution is extremely unequal, and this really puts, in my view, bounds
on future growth.
I think one needs to reconsider the limitations of looking only at micro-measures of market flexibility,
and not at the political economy of the country.
In addition, like in many countries, [in Chile] we have a phenomenon where privatizations on the
one hand improved efficiency-because the government is not very good at running things-but were probably
done to the benefit of some people. One of the major mines was sold to the then son-in-law of Pinochet
who now, ironically, was found to [have] actually [paid] money to the son of the current president,
[Michelle] Bachelet. This shows that it's not right or left, it is basically crony capitalism.
GR: And China?
LZ: China is a phenomenal example. There is a very exciting paper looking at the way loans are
made, and the political incentives, not only the economic incentives, that are present in China.
We tend to look at China with too much of a Western view, not realizing that in China, in every
major company there is a representative of the Communist Party who basically oversees the company.
These guys tend to have political incentives that are different than the standard market incentives.
I think understanding better the interaction between the two is a fascinating topic.
GR: To sum up our discussion: politics is key when it comes to finance, and we should research
the relationship between the political world and finance more. Are there any specific things that
you think are under-researched today, or over-researched? From a societal point of view, what would
be the right research agenda when it comes to finance today?
LZ: First of all, it's very difficult to ask an academic what is the right research agenda because
most of the people will answer what they're doing this moment, so I don't want to fall into this
trap. In general, the connection between finance and politics has been under-researched for years,
and the goal of this conference is precisely to motivate more research. I think there is a need to
apply more creative and different approaches.
I think that generally in academia, what tends to be overdone is research that's based on data
that areeasily available, with techniques that are fairly well-established, because the cost of production
is low, the value added is also low, but also, the risks tend to be low.
I think that what good researchers should do is to be more ambitious, take more risks-especially
after you get tenure, there is no justification not to take more risks.
GR: Do economists need help from other disciplines when they're going into the realm of political
economy of finance?
LZ: I think economists need help in other disciplines regardless. There was a long period in which
economists were sort of colonialists, and they were moving to other fields, ignoring, or not really
understanding the other fields, but just trying to grab some of those questions.
I think that those times, by and large, are gone. I think there is a lot of good research interacting
psychology with economics. I think that is less so, for example, in sociology. I think that sociologists
and economists tend to not interact a lot, and I think there are great opportunities there.
I think also with political scientists, there are more economists acting as political scientists-there
is a bit less of an integration. I think that would be helpful, especially in areas like finance.
I think if you are in the political economy section of an economics department, you naturally interact
with political scientists.
When you come to business school, and you do finance, or you do IO, you tend to be less well-integrated.
GR: Some economists shy away from politics for many reasons, but correct me if I'm wrong: the
deeper we go into the political economy of finance, we'll see that politics has a lot of influence
on the outcomes of the financial markets, and it will force us to think much more about politics.
LZ: I would also say the opposite. I think that economists, and academics in general, have a huge
impact on what happens in the political world. Not immediately, not individually, as they had in
academia by themselves, but the academic thinking isa crucial part in shaping politics.
It's very hard to do lobbying without some ideas to support the lobbying. My fear is that academics
are not sufficiently aware of their impact. Jean-Paul Sartre used to say you cannot not choose because
not choosing is choosing not to choose. I would like to paraphrase and say you cannot ignore politics
because ignoring politics is choosing a particular political perspective of ignoring it. You are
announcing a particular view, you're not abstaining from it.
The attitude of many academics that say "I do science, I have nothing to do with politics"-they
are doing politics in another way.
GR: When you're ignoring politics, the outcome many times would be to give more power in
the market of ideas and in policies to vested interests, to the powerful?
LZ: I think that that could be an outcome. It's not necessarily an outcome, but that could be
an outcome. I'm just saying that you should be aware of the consequences of your actions because
not acting is an action.
GR: Luigi Zingales, thank you very much.
LZ: You're welcome.
Disclaimer: The ProMarket blog is dedicated to discussing how competition tends to be subverted
by special interests. The posts represent the opinions of their writers, not those of the University
of Chicago, the Booth School of Business, or its faculty. For more information, please visit ProMarket Blog Policy .
"... Neoliberal Democrats seek to create the same tribablist/identity voting block on the left that the republicans have on the right. The is why people like sanjait get totally spastic when progressives criticize the party. ..."
"... Problem I have with the corporatist democrats is they're trading away the working class gains of the new deal in order to appease the centrist Republicans. Meanwhile the Centrist Republicans are breaking towards the fascist right wing of the party. ..."
"... Corporatism and financialization are the cornerstones of wealth consolidation and political capture on the one hand and reduced competition, wages, and innovation on the other hand. ..."
The current Democratic Party was handed two golden opportunities and blew both of them. Obama blew
the 2008 financial crisis. And Hillary Clinton blew the 2016 election.
If you have a tool and the tool it broken you try to fix it. One doesn't pretend there is nothing
wrong. The difference between neoliberal democrats and progressives is they differ on what's wrong.
Neoliberal Democrats seek to create the same tribablist/identity voting block on the left that
the republicans have on the right. The is why people like sanjait get totally spastic when progressives
criticize the party.
Progressives seek to create an aggressive party that represents the interests of working class
and petite bourgeoisie. That is why you see progressives get spastic when the corporate democrats
push appeasement policies.
Problem I have with the corporatist democrats is they're trading away the working class gains
of the new deal in order to appease the centrist Republicans. Meanwhile the Centrist Republicans
are breaking towards the fascist right wing of the party.
So not only are working class people losing their gains, but those gains are being traded away
for nothing.
My problem is that and more. We should have been headed in the opposite direction these last fifty
years.
Public daycare and universal pre-K would have been a good idea in the sixties.
Now they
are so long overdue that it is pathetic.
Corporatism and financialization are the cornerstones
of wealth consolidation and political capture on the one hand and reduced competition, wages,
and innovation on the other hand.
"... Over the last thirty years the power of the Manufacturing and Infrastructure concerns has fallen
dramatically. So now we have a government dominated by Banking and Distribution, think Goldman Sacks
and Walmart. ..."
"... According to former CIA director Richard Helms, when Allen Dulles was tasked in 1946 to "draft
proposals for the shape and organization of what was to become the Central Intelligence Agency," he
recruited an advisory group of six men made up almost exclusively of Wall Street investment bankers
and lawyers. ..."
"... Dulles himself was an attorney at the prominent Wall Street law firm, Sullivan and Cromwell.
Two years later, Dulles became the chairman of a three-man committee which reviewed the young agency's
performance. ..."
"... So we see that from the beginning the CIA was an exclusive Wall Street club. Allen Dulles himself
became the first civilian Director of Central Intelligence in early 1953. ..."
"... The current Democratic Party was handed two golden opportunities and blew both of them. Obama
blew the 2008 financial crisis. And Hillary Clinton blew the 2016 election. ..."
"... Neoliberal Democrats seek to create the same tribablist/identity voting block on the left that
the republicans have on the right. The is why people like sanjait get totally spastic when progressives
criticize the party. ..."
Among the rich I think there were three groups based on where their wealth and interests laid.
Banking/Insurance industry.
Distribution/logistics.
Manufacturing and Infrastructure.
Over the last thirty years the power of the Manufacturing and Infrastructure concerns has
fallen dramatically. So now we have a government dominated by Banking and Distribution, think
Goldman Sacks and Walmart.
"Over the last thirty years the power of the Manufacturing and Infrastructure concerns has fallen
dramatically. So now we have a government dominated by Banking and Distribution, think Goldman
Sacks and Walmart."
This trend does not apply to Military-industrial complex (MIC). MIC probably should be listed
separately. Formally it is a part of manufacturing and infrastructure, but in reality it is closely
aligned with Banking and insurance.
CIA which is the cornerstone of the military industrial complex to a certain extent is an enforcement
arm for financial corporations.
According to former CIA director Richard Helms, when Allen Dulles was tasked in 1946
to "draft proposals for the shape and organization of what was to become the Central Intelligence
Agency," he recruited an advisory group of six men made up almost exclusively of Wall Street
investment bankers and lawyers.
Dulles himself was an attorney at the prominent Wall Street law firm, Sullivan and Cromwell.
Two years later, Dulles became the chairman of a three-man committee which reviewed the young
agency's performance.
The other two members of the committee were also New York lawyers. For nearly a year, the
committee met in the offices of J.H. Whitney, a Wall Street investment firm.
According to Peter Dale Scott, over the next twenty years, all seven deputy directors of
the agency were drawn from the Wall Street financial aristocracy; and six were listed in the
New York social register.
So we see that from the beginning the CIA was an exclusive Wall Street club. Allen Dulles
himself became the first civilian Director of Central Intelligence in early 1953.
The prevalent myth that the CIA exists to provide intelligence information to the president
was the promotional vehicle used to persuade President Harry Truman to sign the 1947 National
Security Act, the legislation which created the CIA.iv
But the rationale about serving the president was never more than a partial and very imperfect
truth...
The current Democratic Party was handed two golden opportunities and blew both of them. Obama
blew the 2008 financial crisis. And Hillary Clinton blew the 2016 election.
If you have a tool and the tool it broken you try to fix it. One doesn't pretend there is nothing
wrong.
The difference between neoliberal democrats and progressives is they differ on what's wrong.
Neoliberal Democrats seek to create the same tribablist/identity voting block on the left
that the republicans have on the right. The is why people like sanjait get totally spastic when
progressives criticize the party.
Progressives seek to create an aggressive party that represents the interests of working class
and petite bourgeoisie. That is why you see progressives get spastic when the corporate democrats
push appeasement policies.
Among the rich I think there were three groups based on where their wealth and interests laid.
Banking/Insurance industry.
Distribution/logistics.
Manufacturing and Infrastructure.
Over the last thirty years the power of the Manufacturing and Infrastructure concerns has fallen
dramatically. So now we have a government dominated by Banking and Distribution, think Goldman
Sacks and Walmart.
"Over the last thirty years the power of the Manufacturing and Infrastructure concerns has fallen
dramatically. So now we have a government dominated by Banking and Distribution, think Goldman
Sacks and Walmart."
This trend does not apply to Military-industrial complex (MIC). MIC probably should be listed
separately. Formally it is a part of manufacturing and infrastructure, but in reality it is closely
aligned with Banking and insurance.
CIA which is the cornerstone of the military industrial complex to a certain extent is an enforcement
arm for financial corporations.
According to former CIA director Richard Helms, when Allen Dulles was tasked in 1946 to "draft
proposals for the shape and organization of what was to become the Central Intelligence Agency,"
he recruited an advisory group of six men made up almost exclusively of Wall Street investment
bankers and lawyers.
Dulles himself was an attorney at the prominent Wall Street law firm, Sullivan and Cromwell.
Two years later, Dulles became the chairman of a three-man committee which reviewed the young
agency's performance.
The other two members of the committee were also New York lawyers.i For nearly a year, the
committee met in the offices of J.H. Whitney, a Wall Street investment firm.ii
According to Peter Dale Scott, over the next twenty years, all seven deputy directors of the
agency were drawn from the Wall Street financial aristocracy; and six were listed in the New York
social register.iii
So we see that from the beginning the CIA was an exclusive Wall Street club. Allen Dulles himself
became the first civilian Director of Central Intelligence in early 1953.
The prevalent myth that the CIA exists to provide intelligence information to the president
was the promotional vehicle used to persuade President Harry Truman to sign the 1947 National
Security Act, the legislation which created the CIA.iv
But the rationale about serving the president was never more than a partial and very imperfect
truth...
That was my point for a long time. Inability to challenge the underlying assumptions
of the neoclassical economics and current neoliberal polices (such as Washington consensus) sooner
of later backfire both in economics and politics, because politics and economics are intrinsically
connected.
to the extent that "pure economics" is a pseudo-science (with bunch of complex mathematical
masturbations, much like geocentric theory of movement of planets; which actually did predicted
certain movements of plants accurately. using overcomplicated math stuff -- epicycles)
But political posturing often prevent such a reevaluation, even when people understand that
something is wrong with the current state of economics.
Much like that fact that the USA pretentions of the world hegemony make deviations from pre-existing
policies a sign of "weakness". But is a dialectical way, the obsessive desire to project strength
is a serious weakness in itself ;-)
And it looks like this inability and lack of desire to challenge the fundamental assumptions
is a very serious problem not only with the US elite, but with the American society as a whole.
Col. Jessep: [from the witness stand] *You want answers?*
Kaffee: *I want the truth!*
Col. Jessup: [from the witness stand] *You can't handle the truth!*
Emong other things it led to the economic policies that on "being disastrous" scale are probably
close the policies that led to Iraq war (remember neocons boasting before this war that we will
be greeted with flowers and the cost will be minimal and democracy will flourish in Iraq). The
results of outsourcing of manufacturing is very similar to the real result obtains due to the
Iraq war.
So there is an important question that the article missed. Can the American elite face the
truth?
That answer is: "No". That's why neoclassical economics while discredited as a theory remain
dominant as a civil religion of neoliberalism, indoctrination into which is a prerequisite to
obtaining an academic degree, and students are indoctrinated into this this bunch of mathiness
each year. Compare with Steve Keen "Debunking economics" (
https://www.amazon.com/Debunking-Economics-Revised-Expanded-Dethroned/dp/1848139926 ). Much
like Marxism was obligatory in the USSR and can't graduate without passing exams on Marxist political
economy.
But, truth be told, neoclassical economics has a strong political undercurrent because historically
it emerged (like neoliberalism in late 30th early 40th) as an alternative to Marxism. And to certain
extent it did has its value while Marxism and Marxist theory of value were not discredited (that
means up to late 40th, early 60th).
Another point is that the US neoliberal elite demonstrated willingness and ability to engage
in self-defeating behavior because they do not want to look weak or challenge the postulated of
neoliberalism. That's the same behavior the Politburo was engaged in the USSR.
I would shy from using the term "decline od neoliberalism" because it has a flavor of "doom
and gloom" (and haw we can speak about decline if a realistic alternative does not exist?), but
neoliberalism really faces the crisis of confidence. Neoliberal myths such a "Greed is good",
"Casino capitalism is virtuous", "Entrepreneurship is the ultimate value and the source of material
reward", "free market", "free trade", "labor market", "poor are guilty of their own fate because
they lack responsibility", "rising stock market tide lifts all boats", etc are dispelled.
Promises of "prosperity for all" are not delivered (at least to the lower 80% of population.)
Basically the same situation that existed with Brezhnev socialism in the USSR with the communist
ideology stating with 70th.
Instead of the USSR alcoholism epidemic we have opioids and meth epidemic with the same or
similar social roots.
That worldview had derived from this conviction that American power implies commitment to global
hegemony, and this commitment expressed the nation's enduring devotion to its founding ideals
of freedom and democracy.
That also means that election of Trump will not result in proper actions that can change the
course of "battleship America" and can rectify the current difficulties. Much like the election
of Barack Obama before him.
"... In Riyadh, Mr. Trump is viewed as a refreshing change from President Barack Obama, who was viewed with disdain in the wake of the Iranian nuclear deal that Mr. Obama brokered in 2015. ... ..."
Trump Gets a Gold
Medal as Welcome From
Saudi King
https://nyti.ms/2rCfpc5
NYT - MICHAEL D. SHEAR
and PETER BAKER - MAY
20, 2017
... .. ...
Flanked by Saudi
military personnel
standing at attention
and alternating Saudi
and American flags,
Mr. Trump and the king
exchanged a brief
handshake and a few
pleasantries as
trumpets blared,
cannons boomed and
seven Saudi jets
streaked through the
sky, streaming red,
white and blue smoke.
"Very happy to see
you," the king said.
"It's a great honor,"
Mr. Trump replied,
before he was offered
a bouquet of flowers
from Saudi girls.
The two leaders
posed for photos while
seated in the Royal
Hall at the airport's
terminal before
getting into a
motorcade to head to a
series of meetings.
Aides said Mr. Trump
had spent most of the
flight from
Washington, which took
12 hours and 20
minutes, meeting with
staff, reading
newspapers and working
on his speech. He got
very little sleep,
they said.
In Riyadh, Mr.
Trump is viewed as a
refreshing change from
President Barack
Obama, who was viewed
with disdain in the
wake of the Iranian
nuclear deal that Mr.
Obama brokered in
2015. ...
Related:
With Harleys and
Hamburgers, Saudis
Salute US on Trump's
Visit
https://nyti.ms/2qF569M
NYT - BEN HUBBARD -
MAY 20, 2017
(cycle parade video
at link)
RIYADH, Saudi
Arabia - There was
neither beer, nor
tattoos nor women at
the biker rally in
Saudi Arabia's capital
on Friday night. But
among the hundreds of
men riding on roaring
Harley Davidsons and
sporting leather
vests, there was
overwhelming
excitement about the
incoming visitor:
President Trump. ...
Saudi Arabia
prepared an enormous
reception for Mr.
Trump, who landed in
the capital, Riyadh,
on Saturday morning on
the first foreign trip
of his presidency.
Billboards with his
face next to that of
King Salman, the Saudi
monarch, adorned
highways around the
capital, miles of
which were lined with
Saudi and American
flags.
The Saudis planned
such an opulent
greeting for Mr. Trump
to emphasize the depth
of their commitment to
the United States and
to persuade him to
deepen the partnership
to fight terrorism,
confront Iran and
enhance economic ties.
...
"... Hillary not only voted for the Iraq War, but offered a succession of ridiculous excuses for her vote. Remember, this was one of the easiest calls ever. A child could see that the Bush administration's fairy tales about WMDs and Iraqi drones spraying poison over the capital (where were they going to launch from, Martha's Vineyard?) were just that, fairy tales. ..."
"... Yet Hillary voted for the invasion for the same reason many other mainstream Democrats did: They didn't want to be tagged as McGovernite peaceniks. The new Democratic Party refused to be seen as being too antiwar, even at the cost of supporting a wrong one. ..."
"... But that's faulty thinking. My worry is that Democrats like Hillary have been saying, "The Republicans are worse!" for so long that they've begun to believe it excuses everything. It makes me nervous to see Hillary supporters like law professor Stephen Vladeck arguing in the New York Times that the real problem wasn't anything Hillary did, but that the Espionage Act isn't "practical." ..."
"... Young people don't see the Sanders-Clinton race as a choice between idealism and incremental progress. The choice they see is between an honest politician, and one who is so profoundly a part of the problem that she can't even see it anymore. ..."
"... "new Democratic Party" is lined up with the neocons. ..."
"... Bill put Strobe Talbot and Mrs Kagan in senior positions in 1993! Hillary voted comfortably with Paul Wolfowitz ands her internal neocon. While Obama used his peace prize speech to tell the world he would decide who should run sovereign nations. 26000 bombs in 7 diverse countries in one year when the US is not in any declared war. ..."
"... "new Democratic Party" is neocon foreign policy and $500B for the pentagon each year not counting the bombing costs. "new Democratic Party" also armed ISIS until they "went off the ranch" and broke the promise they made to the US' spooks 'not to shoot at people US liked.' ..."
Why Young People Are Right About Hillary Clinton
Listening to the youth vote doesn't always lead to disaster
By Matt Taibbi
March 25, 2016
... ... ...
.. the millions of young voters that are rejecting
Hillary's campaign this year are making a carefully reasoned,
even reluctant calculation about the limits of the insider
politics both she and her husband have represented.
For young voters, the foundational issues of our age have
been the Iraq invasion, the financial crisis, free trade,
mass incarceration, domestic surveillance, police brutality,
debt and income inequality, among others.
And to one degree or another, the modern Democratic Party,
often including Hillary Clinton personally, has been on the
wrong side of virtually all of these issues.
Hillary not only voted for the Iraq War, but offered a
succession of ridiculous excuses for her vote. Remember, this
was one of the easiest calls ever. A child could see that the
Bush administration's fairy tales about WMDs and Iraqi drones
spraying poison over the capital (where were they going to
launch from, Martha's Vineyard?) were just that, fairy tales.
Yet Hillary voted for the invasion for the same reason
many other mainstream Democrats did: They didn't want to be
tagged as McGovernite peaceniks. The new Democratic Party
refused to be seen as being too antiwar, even at the cost of
supporting a wrong one.
It was a classic "we can't be too pure" moment. Hillary
gambled that Democrats would understand that she'd outraged
conscience and common sense for the sake of the Democrats'
electoral viability going forward. As a mock-Hillary in a
2007 Saturday Night Live episode put it, "Democrats know me .
They know my support for the Iraq War has always been
insincere."
This pattern, of modern Democrats bending so far back to
preserve what they believe is their claim on the middle that
they end up plainly in the wrong, has continually repeated
itself.
Take the mass incarceration phenomenon. This was pioneered
in Mario Cuomo's New York and furthered under Bill Clinton's
presidency, which authorized more than $16 billion for new
prisons and more police in a crime bill.
As The New Jim Crow author Michelle Alexander noted,
America when Bill Clinton left office had the world's highest
incarceration rate, with a prison admission rate for black
drug inmates that was 23 times 1983 levels. Hillary stumped
for that crime bill, adding the Reaganesque observation that
inner-city criminals were "super-predators" who needed to be
"brought to heel."
You can go on down the line of all these issues. Trade?
From NAFTA to the TPP, Hillary and her party cohorts have
consistently supported these anti-union free trade
agreements, until it became politically inexpedient. Debt?
Hillary infamously voted for regressive bankruptcy reform
just a few years after privately meeting with Elizabeth
Warren and agreeing that such industry-driven efforts to
choke off debt relief needed to be stopped.
Then of course there is the matter of the great gobs of
money Hillary has taken to give speeches to Goldman Sachs and
God knows whom else. Her answer about that - "That's what
they offered" - gets right to the heart of what young people
find so repugnant about this brand of politics.
One can talk about having the strength to get things done,
given the political reality of the times. But one also can
become too easily convinced of certain political realities,
particularly when they're paying you hundreds of thousands of
dollars an hour.
Is Hillary really doing the most good that she can do,
fighting for the best deal that's there to get for ordinary
people?
Or is she just doing something that satisfies her own
definition of that, while taking tens of millions of dollars
from some of the world's biggest jerks?
I doubt even Hillary Clinton could answer that question.
She has been playing the inside game for so long, she seems
to have become lost in it. She behaves like a person who
often doesn't know what the truth is, but instead merely
reaches for what is the best answer in that moment, not
realizing the difference.
This is why her shifting explanations and flippant
attitude about the email scandal are almost more unnerving
than the ostensible offense. She seems confident that just
because her detractors are politically motivated, as they
always have been, that they must be wrong, as they often
were.
But that's faulty thinking. My worry is that Democrats
like Hillary have been saying, "The Republicans are worse!"
for so long that they've begun to believe it excuses
everything. It makes me nervous to see Hillary supporters
like law professor Stephen Vladeck arguing in the New York
Times that the real problem wasn't anything Hillary did, but
that the Espionage Act isn't "practical."
If you're willing to extend the "purity" argument to the
Espionage Act, it's only a matter of time before you get in
real trouble. And even if it doesn't happen this summer,
Democrats may soon wish they'd picked the frumpy senator from
Vermont who probably checks his restaurant bills to make sure
he hasn't been undercharged.
But in the age of Trump, winning is the only thing that
matters, right? In that case, there's plenty of evidence
suggesting Sanders would perform better against a reality TV
free-coverage machine like Trump than would Hillary Clinton.
This would largely be due to the passion and energy of young
voters.
Young people don't see the Sanders-Clinton race as a
choice between idealism and incremental progress. The choice
they see is between an honest politician, and one who is so
profoundly a part of the problem that she can't even see it
anymore.
They've seen in the last decades that politicians who
promise they can deliver change while also taking the money,
mostly just end up taking the money.
And they're voting for Sanders because his idea of an
entirely voter-funded electoral "revolution" that bars
corporate money is, no matter what its objective chances of
success, the only practical road left to break what they
perceive to be an inexorable pattern of corruption.
Young people aren't dreaming. They're thinking. And we
should listen to them.
"new Democratic Party" is lined up with the neocons.
Bill
put Strobe Talbot and Mrs Kagan in senior positions in 1993! Hillary voted comfortably with Paul Wolfowitz ands her
internal neocon. While Obama used his peace prize speech to tell the world
he would decide who should run sovereign nations.
26000 bombs in 7 diverse countries in one year when the US
is not in any declared war.
"new Democratic Party" is neocon foreign policy and $500B
for the pentagon each year not counting the bombing costs. "new Democratic Party" also armed ISIS until they "went
off the ranch" and broke the promise they made to the US'
spooks 'not to shoot at people US liked.'
"... Baker correctly diagnoses the impact of boomers aging, but there is another effect - "knowledge work" and "high skill manufacturing" is more easily outsourced/offshored than work requiring a physical presence. ..."
Baker correctly diagnoses the impact of boomers aging, but
there is another effect - "knowledge work" and "high skill
manufacturing" is more easily outsourced/offshored than
work requiring a physical presence.
Also outsourcing
"higher wage" work is more profitable than outsourcing
"lower wage" work - with lower wages also labor cost as a
proportion of total cost tends to be lower (not always).
And outsourcing and geographically relocating work
creates other overhead costs that are not much related to
the wages of the local work replaced - and those overheads
are larger in relation to lower wages than in relation to
higher wages.
libezkova -> cm... May 20, 2017 at 08:34 PM
"Also outsourcing "higher wage" work is more profitable than outsourcing "lower wage" work"
"... The anger and despair crystalized into a 'groundswell of discontent' among those left behind, which likely helped to propel Donald Trump into the White House on the promise of 'making America great again'. ..."
"... That's my feeling too about one of the key factor that propelled Trump -- "the anger and despair". For some, voting for Trump was a showing middle finger to Washington establishment. ..."
"... Thus, the battle lines between neoliberal and a "social contract" approach to employment are clearly cut. So far Wall Street, the City, and other worldwide "epicenters for free-market discipline," are winning the battle. According to "free market discipline" dogma, if you are hired at below living wave (as in Wall Mart or other retail chain) it's your own fault. Very convenient theory. The fact that it produce strong desire to shoot or hang all neoliberal economists notwithstanding ;-) ..."
Demand, Secular Stagnation and the Vanishing Middle-Class
The Great Financial Crisis of 2008 deeply scarred the U.S. economy, bringing nine dire years
of economic stagnation, high and rising inequalities in income and wealth, steep levels of indebtedness,
and mounting uncertainty about jobs and incomes
. Big parts of the U.S. were hit by elevated rates of depression, drug addiction and 'deaths
of despair' (Case and Deaton 2017), as 'good jobs' (often in factories and including pension benefits
and health care coverage) leading to careers, were destroyed and replaced by insecure, freelance,
or precarious 'gigs'. All this is evidence that the U.S. is becoming a dual economy-two countries,
each with vastly different resources, expectations and potentials, as America's middle class vanishes
(Temin 2015, 2017).
The anger and despair crystalized into a 'groundswell of discontent' among those left behind,
which likely helped to propel Donald Trump into the White House on the promise of 'making America
great again'.
"The anger and despair crystalized into a 'groundswell of discontent' among those left
behind, which likely helped to propel Donald Trump into the White House on the promise of 'making
America great again'."
That's my feeling too about one of the key factor that propelled Trump -- "the anger and
despair". For some, voting for Trump was a showing middle finger to Washington establishment.
When jobs are gone, people are essentially put against the wall. Neoliberal politicians,
be it "DemoRats", or "Repugs" do not care, as under neoliberalism this is a domain of "individual
responsibility". The neoliberal stance is that you need to increase your value in the "job market"
so that you will be eventually hired on better conditions. Very convenient theory for capital
owners.
Thus, the battle lines between neoliberal and a "social contract" approach to employment are
clearly cut. So far Wall Street, the City, and other worldwide "epicenters for free-market discipline,"
are winning the battle. According to "free market discipline" dogma, if you are hired at below
living wave (as in Wall Mart or other retail chain) it's your own fault. Very convenient theory.
The fact that it produce strong desire to shoot or hang all neoliberal economists notwithstanding
;-)
Academic prostitution is not that different and probably less noble that a regular one.
Here is part of an insightful comment by William Meyer in
which he made an important point about "great realignment" of
the "New Class" (aka "the USA nomenklatura") with capital
owners which happened in 70th.
My observation is that the New Class (professionals,
lobbyists, financiers, teachers, engineers, etc.) have ruled
the country in recent decades. For much of the twentieth
century this class was in some tension with corporations, and
used their skills at influencing government policy to help
develop and protect the welfare state, since they needed the
working class as a counterweight to the natural influence of
corporate money and power. However, somewhere around 1970 I
think this tension collapsed, since corporate managers and
professionals realized that they shared the same education,
background and interests.
Vive la meritocracy. This "peace treaty" between former
rivals allowed the whole newly enlarged New Class to swing to
the right, since they really didn't particularly need the
working class politically anymore. And since it is the
hallmark of this class to seek prestige, power and money
while transferring risk away from themselves, the middle
class and blue collar community has been the natural
recipient. Free trade (well, for non-professionals, anyway),
neoliberalism, ruthless private equity job cutting, etc.,
etc. all followed very naturally. The re-alignment of the
Democratic Party towards the right was a natural part of this
evolution.
I think the 90% or so of the community who are not
included in this class are confused and bewildered and of
course rather angry about it. They also sense that organized
politics in this country – being chiefly the province of the
New Class – has left them with little leverage to change any
of this. Watching the bailouts and lack of prosecutions
during the GFC made them dimly realize that the New Class has
very strong internal solidarity – and since somebody has to
pay for these little mistakes, everyone outside that class is
"fair game."
So in that sense–to the extent that you define liberal as
the ideology of the New Class (neoliberal,
financial-capitalistic, big corporate-friendly but opposed to
non-meritocratic biases like racism, sexism, etc.) is
"liberalism", I think it is reasonable to say that it has
bred resistance and anger among the "losers." As far as
having "failed", well, we'll see: the New Class still
controls almost all the levers of power. It has many
strategies for channeling lower-class anger and I think under
Trump we'll see those rolled out.
Let me be clear, I'm not saying Donald Trump is leading an
insurgency against the New Class – but I think he tapped into
something like one and is riding it for all he can, while not
really having the slightest idea what he's doing.
Perhaps some evolution in "the means of production" or in how
governments are influenced will ultimately develop to divide
or downgrade the New Class, and break its lock on the
corridors of power, but I don't see it on the horizon just
yet. If anyone else does, I'd love to hear more about it.
"... When Trump becomes president by running against the nation's neoliberal elite of both parties, it was a strong, undeniable signal that the neoliberal elite has a problem -- it lost the trust of the majority American people and is viewed now, especially Wall Street financial sharks, as an "occupying force". ..."
"... That means that we have the crisis of the elite governance or, as Marxists used to call it "a revolutionary situation" -- the situation in which the elite can't govern "as usual" and common people (let's say the bottom 80% of the USA population) do not want to live "as usual". Political Zugzwang. The anger is boiling and has became a material force in the most recent elections. ..."
"... The elites also ran American foreign policy, as they have throughout U.S. history. Over the past 25 years they got their country bogged down in persistent wars with hardly any stated purpose and in many instances no end in sight-Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, Libya. Many elites want further U.S. military action in Ukraine, against Iran, and to thwart China's rise in Asia. Aside from the risk of growing geopolitical blowback against America, the price tag is immense, contributing to the country's ongoing economic woes. ..."
"... Thus did this economic turn of events reflect the financialization of the U.S. economy-more and more rewards for moving money around and taking a cut and fewer and fewer rewards for building a business and creating jobs. ..."
"... ...Now comes the counterrevolution. The elites figure that if they can just get rid of Trump, the country can return to what they consider normalcy -- the status quo ante, before the Trumpian challenge to their status as rulers of America. That's why there is so much talk about impeachment even in the absence of any evidence thus far of "high crimes and misdemeanors." That's why the firing of James Comey as FBI director raises the analogy of Nixon's "Saturday Night Massacre." ..."
"... That's why the demonization of Russia has reached a fevered pitch, in hopes that even minor infractions on the part of the president can be raised to levels of menace and threat. ..."
"... There is no way out for America at this point. Steady as she goes could prove highly problematic. A push to remove him could prove worse. Perhaps a solution will present itself. But, even if it does, it will rectify, with great societal disquiet and animosity, merely the Trump crisis. The crisis of the elites will continue, all the more intractable and ominous. ..."
Trump is just a one acute symptom of the underling crisis of the neoliberal social system, that
we experience. So his removal will not solve the crisis.
And unless some kind of New Deal Capitalism is restored there is no alternative to the neoliberalism
on the horizon.
But the question is: Can the New Deal Capitalism with its "worker aristocracy" strata and the
role of organized labor as a weak but still countervailing force to corporate power be restored
? I think not.
With the level of financialization achieved, the water is under the bridge. The financial toothpaste
can't be squeezed back into the tube. That's what makes the current crisis more acute: none of
the parties has any viable solution to the crisis, not the will to attempt to implement some radical
changes.
When Trump becomes president by running against the nation's neoliberal elite of both parties,
it was a strong, undeniable signal that the neoliberal elite has a problem -- it lost the trust
of the majority American people and is viewed now, especially Wall Street financial sharks, as
an "occupying force".
That means that we have the crisis of the elite governance or, as Marxists used to call
it "a revolutionary situation" -- the situation in which the elite can't govern "as usual" and
common people (let's say the bottom 80% of the USA population) do not want to live "as usual".
Political Zugzwang. The anger is boiling and has became a material force in the most recent elections.
At least Republican elites resisted the emergence of Trump for as long as they could. Some
even attacked him vociferously. But, unlike in the Democratic Party, the Republican candidate
who most effectively captured the underlying sentiment of GOP voters ended up with the nomination.
The Republican elites had to give way. Why? Because Republican voters fundamentally favor vulgar,
ill-mannered, tawdry politicians? No, because the elite-generated society of America had become
so bad in their view that they turned to the man who most clamorously rebelled against it.
... ... ...
The elites also ran American foreign policy, as they have throughout U.S. history. Over
the past 25 years they got their country bogged down in persistent wars with hardly any stated
purpose and in many instances no end in sight-Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, Libya. Many
elites want further U.S. military action in Ukraine, against Iran, and to thwart China's rise
in Asia. Aside from the risk of growing geopolitical blowback against America, the price tag
is immense, contributing to the country's ongoing economic woes.
... ... ...
Then there is the spectacle of the country's financial elites goosing liquidity massively
after the Great Recession to benefit themselves while slamming ordinary Americans with a resulting
decline in Main Street capitalism. The unprecedented low interest rates over many years, accompanied
by massive bond buying called "quantitative easing," proved a boon for Wall Street banks and
corporate America while working families lost income from their money market funds and savings
accounts. The result, says economic consultant David M. Smick, author of The Great Equalizer
, was "the greatest transfer of middle-class and elderly wealth to elite financial interests
in the history of mankind." Notice that these post-recession transactions were mostly financial
transactions, divorced from the traditional American passion for building things, innovating,
and taking risks-the kinds of activities that spur entrepreneurial zest, generate new enterprises,
and create jobs. Thus did this economic turn of events reflect the financialization of
the U.S. economy-more and more rewards for moving money around and taking a cut and fewer and
fewer rewards for building a business and creating jobs.
...Now comes the counterrevolution. The elites figure that if they can just get rid
of Trump, the country can return to what they consider normalcy -- the status quo ante, before
the Trumpian challenge to their status as rulers of America. That's why there is so much talk
about impeachment even in the absence of any evidence thus far of "high crimes and misdemeanors."
That's why the firing of James Comey as FBI director raises the analogy of Nixon's "Saturday
Night Massacre."
That's why the demonization of Russia has reached a fevered pitch, in hopes that even
minor infractions on the part of the president can be raised to levels of menace and threat.
... ... ...
There is no way out for America at this point. Steady as she goes could prove highly
problematic. A push to remove him could prove worse. Perhaps a solution will present itself.
But, even if it does, it will rectify, with great societal disquiet and animosity, merely the
Trump crisis. The crisis of the elites will continue, all the more intractable and ominous.
IMHO Trump betrayal of his voters under the pressure from DemoRats ("the dominant neoliberal
wing of Democratic Party", aka "Clinton's wing") makes the situation even worse. a real Gordian
knot. Or, in chess terminology, a Zugzwang.
He raised income taxes for the top 1.5% and dramatically lowered capital gain tax. As rich get
bulk of their income from capital gains and bonds he lowered taxes for rich. Is this so difficult
to understand ?
As for "Russian troll" label, that only demonstrates your level brainwashing and detachment
from reality. Clinical case of a politically correct neocon. People like you, as well as "Washington
swamp", underestimate how angry people outside, let's say, top 20% are -- angry enough to elect
Trump.
This boiling anger is now an important factor in the USA politics. That's why the US neocons
feels do insecure and resort to dirty tricks to depose Trump. They want the full, 100% political
power back.
Even the fact that Trump conceded the most important of his election promises is not enough
for them. Carthago delenda est -- Trump must go -- is the mentality. But if it comes to the impeachment,
"demorats" (aka neoliberal democrats) might see really interesting things, when it happens. It
might well be that this time neocons/neolibs might really feel people wrath. I might be wrong
as psychopaths are unable to experience emotions, only to fake them.
"... An alternative and modern view is that imperialism and colonialism are unreservedly adverse for the "natives' in that it deprives
them of the freedom to shape their own futures. So many of us from the old colonies would not agree that imperialism the best thing
that happened to us. But this debate continues. ..."
"... He who pays the piper calls the tune. ..."
"... What you are saying, sociologically, is that the Roman military conquests spread enabling technology. Well, it certainly is
hard to suggest a counter-intuitive, except Jesus Christ. ..."
The instrumental and transformation view of the benefits of imperialism is reflected in comments I once read by Charles deGaulle
who, as I recall saw the massacre of the Gauls by Julius Caesar, and the integration of the Gauls into the Roman polity as an
essential step towards the emergence of a modern Europe. [I wish I could find the reference].
An alternative and modern view is that imperialism and colonialism are unreservedly adverse for the "natives' in that it
deprives them of the freedom to shape their own futures. So many of us from the old colonies would not agree that imperialism
the best thing that happened to us. But this debate continues.
I suspect that your citation is reasonably accurate, historically.
What you are saying, sociologically, is that the Roman military conquests spread enabling technology. Well, it certainly
is hard to suggest a counter-intuitive, except Jesus Christ.
"... Installing compliant regime using the forces of internal "fifth column" of neoliberalism (which, is some cases, consists predominantly of former communists like happened in the USSR and China ;-). Actually, a step from communism to neoliberalism for Communist elite ("nomenklatura") was easy as neoliberalism is "Trotskyism for the rich." If necessary/possible it removes democratically elected governments from the power by claiming that election are falsified and the government is authoritarian (unlike the puppets they want to install). ..."
"... After puppets came to power they mandate austerity, burden the country with debt most of which is stolen and repatriated to the West. The only new idea that neoliberals introduced in the old scenario of colonization is that the crisis for financial and political takeover can be manufactured and instead of psychical occupation of the colony you can use "comprador" regime and rule the country indirectly via financial mechanisms. This is the essence of Washington consensus. ..."
Yes, in a sense, "the rise of Asia" was a side effect of global neoliberal revolution. So the
key here not imperialism per ce, but neoliberalism. Unfortunately it is missing from "questions
to be asked" list and that diminished the value of the article.
"(whence the origins of this transformation? the role of the nation-state and imperialism?
the role of the bourgeois-led independence movements?)"
Neo-imperialism (or, more correctly, neocolonialism) is intrinsically connected with neoliberalism
and, by extension, with "casino capitalism" -- oversized role of financial sector under neoliberalism
as the rent extraction mechanism (via "debt slavery"). It uses instead of old-fashion occupation
of the country, political and financial takeover the countries in crisis.
Installing compliant regime using the forces of internal "fifth column" of neoliberalism (which,
is some cases, consists predominantly of former communists like happened in the USSR and China
;-). Actually, a step from communism to neoliberalism for Communist elite ("nomenklatura") was
easy as neoliberalism is "Trotskyism for the rich." If necessary/possible it removes democratically
elected governments from the power by claiming that election are falsified and the government
is authoritarian (unlike the puppets they want to install).
After puppets came to power they mandate austerity, burden the country with debt most of which
is stolen and repatriated to the West. The only new idea that neoliberals introduced in the old
scenario of colonization is that the crisis for financial and political takeover can be manufactured
and instead of psychical occupation of the colony you can use "comprador" regime and rule the
country indirectly via financial mechanisms. This is the essence of Washington consensus.
That make neocolonialism more sustainable as the illusion of sovereignty is preserved. For
example for all practical purposes Greece is now a colony. But armed struggle against occupation
forces will not happen as there is no physical occupation forces in the country. They are all
virtual ;-)
"Regime change" favorable to neoliberal globalization is what the idea of "color revolution"
is about. It can occur even in the country that already has a brutal neocolonial neoliberal administration.
Like was the case with Yanukovich regime in Ukraine. That means that we can't separate neocolonialism
and neoliberal globalization. They are two sides of the same coin.
Also the development is not equivalent to the growth of GDP, even if we use purchase parity
method of calculation of GDP. Standard of living of population and the growth of GDP can be detached
under neoliberalism. Thay are not the same thing.
Simultaneously, like under classic imperialism, the population of the "host" county (the imperial
power) suffers too, because it carries the increasing burden of maintaining and expanding of the
empire. The current situation in the USA is clear example of this trend.
We also clearly see the attempts to lower the level of income to subsistence level in the USA
(Wal-Mart), so this part of Marxism still have some validity. It looks like neoliberalism is not
that interested in maintaining "worker aristocracy" in the "host" country. It might be replaced
by upper strata of "guard labor" and "national security parasites".
Industrialization of China was an interesting historical event -- the result to three very
improbable events.
1. Voluntarily conversion of China leadership of Communist Party to neoliberalism ( Deng Xiaoping
theory "It doesn't matter whether a cat is white or black, as long as it catches mice." )
2. The USA successful attempt to play China against the USSR and Warsaw block.
3. The neoliberal revolution in the USA itself, which removed the idea of sharing profits with
working class (New Deal Capitalism), and opened the path to outsourcing first manufacturing and
then services to the low wage countries, making China a very lucrative target for the transfer
of manufacturing and wage arbitrage. Timewise it corresponded with retirement of the managerial
class which fought in WWII and replacement of this generation with more technocratic and more
"neoliberally brainwashed" boomers.
Another interesting nuance is that out of "Asian tigers", only China can be viewed as nominally
sovereign nation.
Other countries are to various degrees vassals of the USA. And that puts strict limits to their
growth. Actually Trump election might be a signal to those nations: "know you place".
The idea that "Thus the seeds of the idea that imperialism may undermine class struggle in
developed countries were sown and that had far reaching consequences." presuppose the working
class, in classic Marxist tradition, has "revolutionary potential", the energy and the desire
to overthrow the existing order.
This part of Marxism proved to be false. It was the social-democratic parties which were key
to mobilizing workers.
This idea of the tremendous importance of the party for the modern society and that one party
rule can stimulate economic development was actually inherited from Marxism by national socialism.
Mussolini was a former prominent Italian social-democrat.
The "iron rule of oligarchy" also severely undermined the Marxist idea of "socialist state"
and the possibility of the rule of working class (and democracy as a political system -- Göring:
Oh, that is all well and good, but, voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the
bidding of the leaders. That is easy).
It is rumored that close to his death and seeing the emergence of "nomenklatura" as a new ruling
class in the Soviet Russia Lenin exclaimed "My God, what we have done !".
Phillip Mirowski challenged the left to directly attack and defeat the neoliberal belief that
markets are information processors that can know more than any person could ever know and solve
problems no computer could ever solve. [Prof. Philip Mirowski keynote for 'Life and Debt' conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I7ewn29w-9I
]
Sorry for the long quote - I am loathe to attempt to paraphrase Hayek
"This is particularly true of our theories accounting for the determination of the systems
of relative prices and wages that will form themselves on a wellfunctioning market. Into the
determination of these prices and wages there will enter the effects of particular information
possessed by every one of the participants in the market process – a sum of facts which in
their totality cannot be known to the scientific observer, or to any other single brain. It
is indeed the source of the superiority of the market order, and the reason why, when it is
not suppressed by the powers of government, it regularly displaces other types of order, that
in the resulting allocation of resources more of the knowledge of particular facts will be
utilized which exists only dispersed among uncounted persons, than any one person can possess.
But because we, the observing scientists, can thus never know all the determinants of such
an order, and in consequence also cannot know at which particular structure of prices and wages
demand would everywhere equal supply, we also cannot measure the deviations from that order;
nor can we statistically test our theory that it is the deviations from that "equilibrium"
system of prices and wages which make it impossible to sell some of the products and services
at the prices at which they are offered."
[Extract from Hayek's Nobel Lecture]
This just hints at Hayek's market supercomputer idea - I still haven't found a particular writing
which exposits the idea - so this will have to do.
Sorry - another quote from the Hayek Nobel Lecture [I have no idea how to paraphrase stuff
like this!]:
"There may be few instances in which the superstition that only measurable magnitudes can be
important has done positive harm in the economic field: but the present inflation and employment
problems are a very serious one. Its effect has been that what is probably the true cause of
extensive unemployment has been disregarded by the scientistically minded majority of economists,
because its operation could not be confirmed by directly observable relations between measurable
magnitudes, and that an almost exclusive concentration on quantitatively measurable surface
phenomena has produced a policy which has made matters worse."
I can't follow Hayek and I can't follow Jason Smith. The first quote above sounds like a "faith
based" theory of economics as difficult to characterize as it is to refute. The second quote throws
out Jason Smith's argument with a combination of faith based economics and a rejection of the
basis for Smith's argument - as "scientistically minded."
I prefer the much simplier answer implicit in Veblen and plain in "Industrial Prices and their
Relative Inflexibility." US Senate Document no. 13, 74th Congress, 1st Session, Government Printing
Office, Washington DC. Means, G. C. 1935 - Market? What Market? Can you point to one? [refer to
William Waller: Thorstein Veblen, Business Enterprise, and the Financial Crisis (July 06, 2012)
[https://archive.org/details/WilliamWallerThorsteinVeblenBusinessEnterpriseAndTheFinancialCrisis]
It might be interesting if Jason Smith's information theory approach to the market creature
could prove how the assumed properties of that mythical creature could be used to derive a proof
that the mythical Market creature cannot act as an information processor as Mirowski asserts that
Hayek asserts. So far as I can tell from my very little exposure to Hayek's market creature it
is far too fantastical to characterize with axioms or properties amenable to making reasoned arguments
or proofs as Jason Smith attempts. Worse - though I admit being totally confused by his arguments
- Smith's arguments seem to slice at a strawman creature that bears little likeness to Hayek's
market creature.
The conclusion of this post adds a scary thought: "The understanding of prices and supply and
demand provided by information theory and machine learning algorithms is better equipped to explain
markets than arguments reducing complex distributions of possibilities to a single dimension,
and hence, necessarily, requiring assumptions like rational agents and perfect foresight." It
almost sounds as if Jason Smith intends to build a better Market as information processor - maybe
tweak the axioms a little and bring in Shannon. Jason Smith is not our St. George.
But making the observation that there are no markets as defined makes little dint on a faith-based
theory like neoliberalism, especially a theory whose Church encompasses most university economics
departments, most "working" economists, numerous well-funded think tanks, and owns much/most of
our political elite and so effectively promotes the short-term interests of our Power Elite.
"... By Jason Smith, a physicist who messes around with economic theory. He graduated from the University
of Texas at Austin with a degree in math and a degree in physics, and received his Ph.D. from the University
of Washington in theoretical physics. Follow him on Twitter: @infotranecon. Originally published at
Evonomics ..."
"... The New Industrial State ..."
"... I think the tradition of economic thinking has been really influential. I think it's actually
a thing that people on the left really should do - take the time to understand all of that. There is
a tremendous amount of incredible insight into some of the things we're talking about, like non-zero-sum
settings, and the way in which human exchange can be generative in this sort of amazing way. Understanding
how capitalism works has been really, really important for me, and has been something that I feel like
I'm a better thinker and an analyst because of the time and reading I put into a lot of conservative
authors on that topic. ..."
Posted on
May 17, 2017 by Yves
Smith By Jason Smith, a physicist who messes around with economic theory. He graduated from
the University of Texas at Austin with a degree in math and a degree in physics, and received his
Ph.D. from the University of Washington in theoretical physics. Follow him on Twitter: @infotranecon.
Originally published at
Evonomics
The inspiration for this piece came from a
Vox podcast with Chris Hayes of MSNBC. One of the topics they discussed was which right-of-center
ideas the left ought to engage. Hayes says:
The entirety of the corpus of [Friedrich] Hayek, [Milton] Friedman, and neoclassical economics.
I think it's an incredibly powerful intellectual tradition and a really important one to understand,
these basic frameworks of neoclassical economics, the sort of ideas about market clearing prices,
about the functioning of supply and demand, about thinking in marginal terms.
I think the tradition of economic thinking has been really influential. I think it's actually
a thing that people on the left really should do - take the time to understand all of that. There
is a tremendous amount of incredible insight into some of the things we're talking about, like
non-zero-sum settings, and the way in which human exchange can be generative in this sort of amazing
way. Understanding how capitalism works has been really, really important for me, and has been
something that I feel like I'm a better thinker and an analyst because of the time and reading
I put into a lot of conservative authors on that topic.
Putting aside the fact that the left has fully understood and engaged with these ideas, deeply
and over decades (it may be dense writing, but it's not exactly quantum field theory), I can hear
some of you asking: Do I have to?
The answer is: No.
Why? Because you can get the same understanding while also understanding where these ideas fall
apart ‒ that is to say understanding the limited
scope of market-clearing prices and supply and demand – using information theory.
Prices and Hayek
Friedrich Hayek did have some insight into prices having something to do with information, but
he got the details wrong and vastly understated the complexity of the system. He saw market prices
aggregating information from events: a blueberry crop failure, a population boom, or speculation
on crop yields. Price changes purportedly communicated knowledge about the state of the world.
However, Hayek was writing in a time before information theory. (Hayek's The Use of Knowledge
in Society was written in 1945, a just few years before Claude Shannon's A Mathematical Theory
of Communication in 1948.) Hayek thought a large amount of knowledge about biological or ecological
systems, population, and social systems could be communicated by a single number: a price. Can you
imagine the number of variables you'd need to describe crop failures, population booms, and market
bubbles? Thousands? Millions? How many variables of information do you get from the price of blueberries?
One. Hayek dreams of compressing a complex multidimensional space of possibilities that includes
the state of the world and the states of mind of thousands or millions of agents into a single dimension
(i.e. price), inevitably losing a great deal of information in the process.
... ... ...
The market as an algorithm
The picture above is of a functioning market as an algorithm matching distributions by raising
and lowering a price until it reaches a stable price. In fact, this picture is of a specific machine
learning algorithm called
Generative
Adversarial Networks (GAN, described in this
Medium article or in the original paper
) that has emerged recently. Of course, the idea of the market as an algorithm to solve a problem
is not new. For example
one of the best blog posts of all time (in my opinion) talks about linear programming as an algorithm,
giving an argument for why planned economies will likely fail, but the same argument implies we
cannot check the optimality of the market allocation of resources, therefore claims of markets
as optimal are entirely faith-based. The Medium article uses a good analogy using a painting, a forger,
and a detective, but I will recast it in terms of the information theory description.
Instead of the complex multidimensional distributions, here we have blueberry buyers and blueberry
sellers. The "supply" ( B from above) is the generator G , the demand A is the
"real data" R (the information the deep learning algorithm is trying to learn). Instead of
the random initial input I - coin tosses or dice throws - we have the complex, irrational,
entrepreneurial, animal spirits of people. We also have the random effects of weather on blueberry
production. The detector D (which is coincidentally the terminology Fieltiz and Borchardt
used) is the price p . When the detector can't tell the difference between the distribution
of demand for blueberries and the distribution of the supply of blueberries (i.e. when the price
reaches a relatively stable value because the distributions are the same), we've reached our solution
(a market equilibrium).
Note that the problem the GAN algorithm tackles can be represented by the two-player
minimax game from game theory.
The thing is that with the wrong settings, algorithms fail and you get garbage. I know this from
experience in my regular job researching machine learning, sparse reconstruction, and signal processing
algorithms. Therefore depending on the input data (especially data resulting from human behavior),
we shouldn't expect to get good results all of the time. These failures are exactly the failure of
information to flow from the real data to the generator through the detector – the failure of information
from the demand to reach the supply via the price mechanism.
When asked by Quora what the recent and upcoming breakthroughs in deep learning are, Yann LeCun,
director of AI research at Facebook and a professor at NYU, said:
The most important one, in my opinion, is adversarial training (also called GAN for Generative
Adversarial Networks). This is an idea that was originally proposed by Ian Goodfellow when he
was a student with Yoshua Bengio at the University of Montreal (he since moved to Google Brain
and recently to OpenAI).
This, and the variations that are now being proposed is the most interesting idea in the last
10 years in ML, in my opinion.
Research into these deep learning algorithms and information theory may provide insight into economic
systems.
An Interpretation of Economics for the Left
So again, Hayek had a fine intuition: prices and information have some relationship. But he didn't
have the conceptual or mathematical tools of information theory to understand the mechanisms of that
relationship - tools that emerged with Shannon's key paper in 1948, and that continue to be elaborated
to this day to produce algorithms like generative adversarial networks.
The understanding of prices and supply and demand provided by information theory and machine learning
algorithms is better equipped to explain markets than arguments reducing complex distributions of
possibilities to a single dimension, and hence, necessarily, requiring assumptions like rational
agents and perfect foresight. Ideas that were posited as articles of faith or created through incomplete
arguments by Hayek are not even close to the whole story, and leave you with no knowledge of the
ways the price mechanism, marginalism, or supply and demand can go wrong. Those arguments assume
and (hence) conclude market optimality. Leaving out the failure modes effectively declares many social
concerns of the left moot by fiat. The potential and actual failures of markets are a major concern
of the left, and are frequently part of discussions of inequality and social justice.
The left doesn't need to follow Chris Hayes' advice and engage with Hayek, Friedman, and neoclassical
economics. The left instead needs to engage with a real world vision of economics that recognizes
the limited scope of ideal markets and begins with imperfection as the more useful default scenario.
Understanding economics in terms of information flow is one way of doing that.
Is this just my lack of formal education or is this article very complicated? Honestly I did
not understand it at all. Is there any way to explain this different? ( a link to a different
way of describing informationtheory / free market theory)
Thanks Julia
To put it in more layman-friendly terms: price settings are based on information the suppliers
gather regarding the market, both demand side and supply side (sales forecasts, commodity pricing,
consumer confidence number, focus group information, etc). Demanders do the same. However, they
can never have absolute, complete information for either side. So prices, and idea of what prices
should be, in a free market never represent a true optimal price, but rather a best guess.
This pokes a few holes in neoclassical economic assumptions:
– Most obviously, prices cannot be optimal in a free market.
– Supply and demand changes cannot account entirely for changes in price, as refinements to the
information flow can affect them as well.
– Information asymmetry corrupts prices, and can be used to exploit consumers.
– Information is dependent on a large enough sample size, so neoclassical economics is useless
in markets with limited transactions. An easy example of this are those kind of items on shows
like Antique Roadshow, where there's so few of the items out there that the expert says, "This
is a guess, but really it could go for almost any amount at auction."
So the Left can use this to argue for non-market price controls (to account for the lack of
free market price optimization) and for forcing corporations to have better fiscal transparency
and more strict anti-trust laws (to increase information flow and to prevent information asymmetry).
Local prices for gasoline look a lot more like looting and chaos to me than any kind of correspondence
to "markets." Yesterday at the RaceTrac at the end of my street, "regular" dropped four cents
from morning to evening, reflecting the pricing at the two other "service stations" at the intersection.
A month or so ago (I got tired of keeping a little record of the changes) the price jumped 25
cents overnight. None of these moves seemed to correspond with the stuff I was reading about in
the market conditions around the planet and just in the US - supply and demand? More like the
Useless Looters at BP and Shell and others just spin an arrow on a kid's game board to pick the
day's price point (that sick phrase), or somebody in the C-Suite decided the "Bottom Line" needed
a goose to pump the bonus generator up a bit.
The fraud is everywhere, the looting and scamming too. Seems to me that searching for some
"touchstone" to make sense of It All is an exercise in futility.
Gasoline runs into a different limitation with free market economics, which is that consumers
need to be able to freely enter and leave the market in question in order for the free market
to function (which is why privatized healthcare doesn't work). Outside of a few urban areas with
robust public transportation, most Americans are immediately dependent on gasoline in order to
survive. Even those who do have access to a Metro are still dependent on the shipping that uses
gasoline. So they can raise prices with a greater confidence that the number of consumers will
not drop off as significantly as with other industries.
"This pokes a few holes in neoclassical economic assumptions:"
In neoclassical economics, these "holes" are pretty much understood as the prerequisites for
"perfect competition", as opposed to imperfect competition or monopolies.
When politics is mixed with economics, these are ignored, as they are in the interest of the
ruling class.
PKMKII said it very well, and here's another way to look at it: Centrally-planned economies
(say, some Politburo minister in the former Soviet Union) fail because a central bureaucrat cannot
possibly guess the demand and distribution for all products (say, metal bathtubs) across an economy
in a given year. He guesses, poorly, and either the shortages or the oversupply make our history
books.
Market economics makes a better guess, because pricing gives a dynamic estimate of what the
supply and demand really are. That this estimate is generally *better* has been (mis)represented
as that this estimate is somehow PERFECT - the best estimate that can possibly exist! As the article
describes, this assessment (that only a market economy can generate maximal wealth and optimal
wealth distributions) is FALSE.
The economics underlying communist central planning failed because they couldn't provide the
optimization that comes from valid pricing function. With Shannon's information theory and advanced
analytics, it is possible to create a more optimal economy than our current, simplistic market/pricing
function provides.
Ever since Samuelson's Economics in 1948, we've worshipped a market god based on scanty math.
The first step in moving beyond Samuelson is recognizing that progress is indeed still possible,
and then making the choice and determining the steps to pursue it.
Not just communist central planning. John Kenneth Galbraith's The New Industrial State
makes a special space in society for industries in The Planning Sector. These were the very
large businesses that worked with huge capital bases, long lead times, populations comparable
to small nations. Planning, both input and output, was key to these businesses because there was
too much at stake to risk losing it to the whims of any market. Communist societies were extreme
examples, as they were betting the entire national economy, but the parallels with huge "private"
firms were quite exact.
The Planning Sector businesses failed when they had to slough off all the activities that were
too hard to plan; then they morphed into the Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Sector.
I don't think it is a lack of formal education. It is simply written in a way that is not easy
to understand. I have my master's in engineering, and I'm still not sure exactly what this passage
is trying to say:
"If you randomly generated thousands of messages from the distribution of possible messages, the
distribution of generated messages would be an approximation to the actual distribution of messages.
If you sent these messages over your noisy communication channel that met the requirement for
faithful transmission, it would reproduce an informationally equivalent distribution of messages
on the other end."
From that point on I simply skimmed it and, if I'm not mistaken, the author also assigns positions
to Hayek that seem to be a little more extreme than the positions he actually held.
If you randomly generated thousands of messages from the distribution of possible messages,
the distribution of generated messages would be an approximation to the actual distribution
of messages.
You can only get to the true distribution assuming an infinite number of samples, everything
else is asymptotic approximation to the true posterior distribution. This is true for any mathematical
function approximated numerically were closed solutions are not possible to find (ie. not integrable).
But this is relevant to the second phrase because:
If you sent these messages over your noisy communication channel that met the requirement
for faithful transmission, it would reproduce an informationally equivalent distribution of
messages on the other end.
A noisy communication channel introduces random bits of information which are not part of the
original distribution, but because that noise is random, you would get a message that is an approximation
of the true distribution of the original message being transmitted (is informationally equivalent)
as the noise is distributed 'randomly' .
However, this is only true when the number of information bits approach infinity (for large
numbers), BE WARE! Indeed that randomness can be very skewed for small samples. this is relevant
and interesting because complex systems were you have a large number of variables are not easy
to converge with, even when you are aware of the whole system variables (is a mathematically intractable
problem).
You can think as market pricing (in an ideal world free of politics and power games, which
is not) as a convergence to a complex multidimensional problem, and even though we know that we
are NOT aware of all the variables at play for a given product, hence this supposedly God like
attributes of market price discovery are unwarranted.
"Because the information flow from A can never be greater than A's total information, and
will mostly be less than that total, the observed prices in a real economy will most likely fall
below the ideal market prices."
Surely not. Post-industrial economies feature an asymmetry: individual consumers, catered to
predominantly by large nationwide publicly-traded suppliers.
Because of the superior knowledge possessed by suppliers, further leveraged by advertising
and publicity which exploits human psychological foibles such as peer pressure and herding, prices
in the economy are almost certainly too high versus the ideal of complete information flow (while
the price of labor is almost certainly too low).
Nowhere are prices higher than in the nonnegotiable, monopoly services of government. Not only
does it charge astronomical property taxes which mean that there's really no such thing as secure
property title without income, but also it compels hapless working schmoes to "invest" 15.3% of
their income for their entire working lives at approximately zero return.
With respect, it is not empirically incorrect that immigration lowers wages. The historical
experience is quite clear, that when governments force population growth, whether through increased
immigration or via incentives to increase the local fertility rate, wages for the many fall and
profits for the few increase.
Sure more workers means more competition for jobs, but can also result in an increase in the
number of jobs – BUT ONLY OVER TIME AND ONLY IF NEEDED INVESTMENTS ARE MADE AND THERE IS ENOUGH
MARGINAL CAPACITY TO INVEST AND TECHNOLOGY AND RESOURCES ARE NOT ENTERING THE AREA OF DIMINISHING
RETURNS. Which is not guaranteed, especially if the immigration level is massive and constantly
increasing.
The United States from around 1929 to 1970 had very low immigration, and, starting from a low
level, wages soared. Starting in 1970, the borders to the overpopulated third world have been
progressively opened, and wages have started to diverge from productivity and are now starting
to decline in absolute terms. Other nations that recently increased the rate of immigration and
have seen significant falls in wages are: South Africa, the Ivory Coast, England, Australia, and
Singapore – and even some provinces of India, where immigration from Bangladesh has been used
to make certain that wages stay near subsistence. Yes immigration was not the only thing going
on there, but when rapid forced increases in the supply of labor are always followed by falls
in wages, well, the empirical evidence is hardly to be dismissed out of hand.
Remember, no society in all of history has run out of workers. When the headlines say that
immigrants are needed to end a labor 'shortage' what is really meant is a 'shortage' of workers
who have no option but to accept low wages. However, the only reason that workers can get high
wages is that there is a 'shortage' of workers forced to take low wages. It is thus essentially
tautological that when immigration is said to eliminate a labor shortage, it is lowering wages,
because a labor 'shortage' is in fact what high wages are based on.
They're arguing that you can't empirically say that immigration decreases wages, because
there are simply too many variables in an economy to be able to say definitively if it's a cause
or a correlation, i.e. does the immigration decrease wages, or does another socio-economic factor
simultaneously decrease wages and cause an influx of immigrants? This is why economics is treated
as a soft science, as you can't remove variables in a lab setting the way you can with other sciences.
"BUT ONLY OVER TIME AND ONLY IF NEEDED INVESTMENTS ARE MADE AND THERE IS ENOUGH MARGINAL CAPACITY
TO INVEST AND TECHNOLOGY AND RESOURCES ARE NOT ENTERING THE AREA OF DIMINISHING RETURNS."
Nope. Once immigrants arrive, demand increases instantly, even before they get a job.
Wow. Just wow. A complete, through, and total BS assertion of some kind of economic theory.
I am simply stunned at his verbal density of discourse, blithe refusal to explain, and simply
name dropping facts, ideas, and concepts that are absolutely not related except in being part
of the English language.
I know this is close to an ad hominum attack; I haven't given any specific rebuttal. But I
don't have the tools at my disposal right now to avenge what I see as an assault on my analytic
abilities.
If not a specific rebuttal, what *kinds* of things in the article do you disagree with? Perhaps
this posting is just a step to some greater knowing. Neoclassical Economics has been taught as
"factual and beyond dispute" my whole career - I'm sure that Alchemy and Leechbooks were taught
similarly in earlier ages. How might you suggest that we move forward to something better?
"It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that
just ain't so." ~ Mark Twain
"Wow. Just wow. A complete, through, and total BS assertion of some kind of economic theory.
I am simply stunned at his verbal density of discourse, blithe refusal to explain, and simply
name dropping facts, ideas, and concepts that are absolutely not related except in being part
of the English language."
Yeah that is a pretty good summation of my experience wrt Austrians over almost 2 decades in
a nutter shell[ ] kudos.
Now if only the neoclassicals would abandon the individual and consider vectors in distribution
and how groups affect information.
disheveled .. throws toys out of play pen and hurrumphs away . victoriously .
In my limited experience the prices we accept are more to do with contentment than information.
We are aware that we can never have perfect information; bounded rationality being our situation*.
So as buyers, we end up going with contentment or at least convenience; price too high, content
to leave it on the shelf. Price too low and the reaction might be the same because it is too good
to be true, or of suspect quality. You can have a bargain staring you in the face and, but you
are content because of lack of interest or knowledge.
Good luck to those who try to quantify contentment!
.And then there is the tyranny of choice; not content!
Pip Pip!
* When it comes to the prices people are prepared to pay for products such as cosmetics and
super-cars the rule seems to be unbounded irrationality, but hopefully contentment is achieved
anyway.
when it comes to the political application of this 'theoretical' argument I think it will be
easily dismissed as more leftist academic pedantry, 'immanentizing the eschaton'- all the comments
reflecting the advantages of imperfect information evidence.
This is a wonderful, cogent explanation of a very mathematically complex subject, which is
Information Theory, that has been used to make profound contributions well beyond telephonic communication
for which Claude Shannon developed it, when he discovered it trying to code the English language,
and which he failed to do.
R.A. Fisher was also brilliant. His work has had implications in probability, and statistics,
economics, and perhaps most profoundly in genetics.
The neoclassical analysis also doesn't account for single supplier, multiple demand market
situations. If blueberries both have the consumer market, but also an industrial market (dye purpose,
maybe), then the blueberry supplier has to balance both of those demands, which may end up favoring
one or the other, or some state that isn't ideal for either demand market. The universal example
is the private property of the business itself. The owner isn't just in the market of whatever
service or widget they make, but also in the commercial real estate market. This is especially
problematic with housing, as high rents + vacancies create the impression of scarcity and value
to prospective buyers.
Good work. Now add the delays in information transfer, and fear and greed buying motivations
based on multiple information streams, coupled with information conflicts (injected noise), and
you are getting closer to the real world.
Information conflicts are the differing explanations of the Trump/Corey affair. There is much
noise in the information stream.
Stable prices mean a balance of crop failures and crop booms (supply), population declines
and population booms (demand), speculation and risk-aversion (demand)
This is a good example because it's easy to understand appealing, I fear, to our neoclassical
prejudices.
It's a bad example because it doesn't seem very multidimensional; appealing to our neoclassical
prejudices it collapses easily into "How many blueberry buyers?" and "How many blueberries?"
Trying to imagine something more multidimensional there might be a preference for big blueberries
because they're big there might be a preference for small blueberries because people think that
they're wild, so they must be tastier. If the markets were segregated, there could be a market-clearing
price for big blueberries, and another for small blueberries. But the markets probably aren't
segregated, and the prices would play back and forth against each other.
Maybe good too in dealing with prices of different goods, not just The Price. Neoclassical prices
are meant to be the information that tells me whether to buy dish soap or a new overcoat instead.
Stable prices mean a balance of crop failures and crop booms (supply), population declines
and population booms (demand), speculation and risk-aversion (demand)
There are no stable prices. With this analysis, the steps to include feedback is clear, and
if the feedback is non-linear, non-linear feedback is a characteristic of chaotic systems.
Temporary stability only in a non-linear system, with tipping points etc.
Chris Hayes is an idiot. What kind of person can repeatedly visit the post-industrial wasteland
of the rust belt for town halls with Bernie Sanders and then say "what we need more of is the
philosophy of free-markets"?
But even with that being said, Hayes somehow is still by far the most worthwhile personality
on MSNBC.
I think the tradition of economic thinking has been really influential. I think it's actually
a thing that people on the left really should do - take the time to understand all of that. There
is a tremendous amount of incredible insight into some of the things we're talking about, like
non-zero-sum settings, and the way in which human exchange can be generative in this sort of amazing
way. Understanding how capitalism works has been really, really important for me, and has been
something that I feel like I'm a better thinker and an analyst because of the time and reading
I put into a lot of conservative authors on that topic.
While I agree with much of the argument Hayes is making – know thy enemy, etc. – he gets one
huge thing wrong here that is very troubling: equating capitalism with markets. "Understanding
how capitalism works has been really, really important for me " I'm amazed at how often this trips
up otherwise smart people. There is no capitalism in mainstream neoclassical economics (no government
either, and you can't have capitalism without government). And get any business person talking
freely and they will tell you that everyone in business hates super-competitive markets of the
kind fetishized by economists, and that profitability is all about finding niches and other ways
to avoid competition.
I think it's important to recognize where information theory and the principle of maximum entropy
does succeed in economics and that is as a method of doing statistical inference in economics.
For those interested, I would recommend looking at the increasing amount of information theoretic
research coming out of the Economics Department at the New School for Social Research and UMKC.
You can find many good working papers by myself, Duncan Foley, Paulo dos Santos, Gregor Semieniuk,
and others on the NSSR Repec page
https://ideas.repec.org/s/new/wpaper.html
.
At Bell Labs, plaques and a statue of Shannon occupy places of honor, in more prominent places
than the tributes to other prominent people (including 8 Nobel Prize winners in science).
Here's a presentation by Prof. Christopher Sims of Princeton, at Bell Labs. "Information Theory
in Economics" https://youtu.be/a8jt_TmwQ-U
– critique of the optimizing rational behavior models, noting people are bandwidth limited
("Rational Inattention"). Non-gaussian! Brings up example of monopolist of with no high capacity
limit vs. customers.
"... But making the observation that there are no markets as defined makes little dint on a faith-based theory like neoliberalism, especially a theory whose Church encompasses most university economics departments, most "working" economists, numerous well-funded think tanks, and owns much/most of our political elite and so effectively promotes the short-term interests of our Power Elite. ..."
Phillip Mirowski challenged the left to directly attack and defeat the neoliberal belief that
markets are information processors that can know more than any person could ever know and solve
problems no computer could ever solve.
Sorry for the long quote - I am loathe to attempt to paraphrase Hayek
"This is particularly true of our theories accounting for the determination of the systems of
relative prices and wages that will form themselves on a well functioning market. Into the determination
of these prices and wages there will enter the effects of particular information possessed by
every one of the participants in the market process – a sum of facts which in their totality cannot
be known to the scientific observer, or to any other single brain.
It is indeed the source of
the superiority of the market order, and the reason why, when it is not suppressed by the powers
of government, it regularly displaces other types of order, that in the resulting allocation of
resources more of the knowledge of particular facts will be utilized which exists only dispersed
among uncounted persons, than any one person can possess.
But because we, the observing scientists,
can thus never know all the determinants of such an order, and in consequence also cannot know
at which particular structure of prices and wages demand would everywhere equal supply, we also
cannot measure the deviations from that order; nor can we statistically test our theory that it
is the deviations from that "equilibrium" system of prices and wages which make it impossible
to sell some of the products and services at the prices at which they are offered." [Extract from Hayek's Nobel Lecture]
This just hints at Hayek's market supercomputer idea -- I still haven't found a particular writing
which exposits the idea -- so this will have to do.
Sorry - another quote from the Hayek Nobel Lecture [I have no idea how to paraphrase stuff
like this!]:
"There may be few instances in which the superstition that only measurable magnitudes can be important
has done positive harm in the economic field: but the present inflation and employment problems
are a very serious one. Its effect has been that what is probably the true cause of extensive
unemployment has been disregarded by the scientistically minded majority of economists, because
its operation could not be confirmed by directly observable relations between measurable magnitudes,
and that an almost exclusive concentration on quantitatively measurable surface phenomena has
produced a policy which has made matters worse."
I can't follow Hayek and I can't follow Jason Smith. The first quote above sounds like a "faith
based" theory of economics as difficult to characterize as it is to refute. The second quote throws
out Jason Smith's argument with a combination of faith based economics and a rejection of the
basis for Smith's argument - as "scientistically minded."
I prefer the much simpler answer implicit in Veblen and plain in "Industrial Prices and their
Relative Inflexibility." US Senate Document no. 13, 74th Congress, 1st Session, Government Printing
Office, Washington DC. Means, G. C. 1935 - Market? What Market? Can you point to one? [refer to
William Waller: Thorstein Veblen, Business Enterprise, and the Financial Crisis (July 06, 2012)
It might be interesting if Jason Smith's information theory approach to the market creature
could prove how the assumed properties of that mythical creature could be used to derive a proof
that the mythical Market creature cannot act as an information processor as Mirowski asserts that
Hayek asserts.
So far as I can tell from my very little exposure to Hayek's market creature it
is far too fantastical to characterize with axioms or properties amenable to making reasoned arguments
or proofs as Jason Smith attempts. Worse - though I admit being totally confused by his arguments
- Smith's arguments seem to slice at a strawman creature that bears little likeness to Hayek's
market creature.
The conclusion of this post adds a scary thought: "The understanding of prices and supply and
demand provided by information theory and machine learning algorithms is better equipped to explain
markets than arguments reducing complex distributions of possibilities to a single dimension,
and hence, necessarily, requiring assumptions like rational agents and perfect foresight." It
almost sounds as if Jason Smith intends to build a better Market as information processor
religion -- maybe
tweak the axioms a little and bring in Shannon. Jason Smith is not our St. George.
But making the observation that there are no markets as defined makes little dint on a faith-based
theory like neoliberalism, especially a theory whose Church encompasses most university economics
departments, most "working" economists, numerous well-funded think tanks, and owns much/most of
our political elite and so effectively promotes the short-term interests of our Power Elite.
Paul Ryan shows zero interest in investigating whether Trump obstructed justice or is in bed with
the Russian government. Why? He needs to get these massive tax cuts for the 1% and take away from
the "moochers" first.
Demonization of Russia that people like PGL enjoy is not a policy. This is an attempt to create
an alibi for Hillary fiasco.
And as any witch hunt this is an obstacle to thinking rationally, of having a rational discourse
about proper role of Russia in enhancing American national security.
Which of cause is impossible with imperial pretension of Washington neocons.
In any case Clinton's attempt to colonize Russia failed and after Yugoslavia war the USA neocons
are responsible for the deteriorating relations.
Taking into account complexity of modern weapon systems and the fact the USA has just 30 min
and Russia 10-15 min for reacting to any emerging threat of rocket attack, my impression is that
Washington is full of psychopaths, who enjoy walking on the blade edge. Kind of self-selection.
Public is so successfully brainwashed that even mentioning the fact that Putin probably does
not vivisect kittens provokes a strong negative reaction.
Invoking Goodwin law there were already a country with the population brainwashed to the same
extent.
"... "For example, when we say that the Chilean state should become a true guarantor of material rights, that is certainly antithetical to the neoliberal capitalist vision which turns rights into a business to be regulated by the market," - ..."
"... Robert Hunziker lives inLos Angeles and can be reached at [email protected] ..."
"For example, when we say that the Chilean state should become a true guarantor of material
rights, that is certainly antithetical to the neoliberal capitalist vision which turns rights
into a business to be regulated by the market," - Camila Vallejo (former Chilean student
protest leader) interview by Zoltán Glück at CUNY Graduate Center, Oct. 15, 2012.
Neoliberalism has been an "occupying force in Latin America" for over three decades while it
has stripped the nation/state(s) of the functionality of a social contract, pushed through wholesale
privatization of public enterprises, and expropriated the people's rights to formal employment,
health, and education, all of which are crowning glories for "free-market determinism."
Throughout Latin America (as well as around the world), neoliberalism's motif consists of assault
on the state, in favor of the market, on politics, in favor of economics, and on political parties,
in favor of corporations. Singularly, neoliberalism brings in its wake a "corporate state."
Henceforth, the corporate state, shaped and formed by neoliberal principles, pushes the social
contract backwards in time to the age of feudalism, a socio-economic pyramid with all of the wealth
and influence at the pinnacle, but, over time, like an anvil balanced on balsa wood.
Albeit, the Left, with renewed vigor, has pushed back against neoliberalism's robbing the poor
to enrich the rich. And, there are clear signals that this pushback has gained traction throughout
Latin America.
The harsh social consequence of neoliberalism's free-market economics propels social movements
in Latin America into the forefront of resistance. These social movements, including the Zapatistas
(Chiapas, Mexico), the Landless Peasant Movement ("MST") in Brazil, the indigenous movements of
Bolivia and Ecuador, and the Piqueteros or Unemployed Workers' Activists in Argentina, and the
students in Chile constitute some of the more prominent groups in opposition to neoliberalism's
tendency for subjugating the people, similar to a plantation economy like the American South,
circa 19th century, whereby "slaves" are reclassified as "workers." It's worked for decades.
In that regard, as much as neoliberalism started (1970s) in Chile at the behest of Milton Friedman,
its comeuppance is now coming to a head, as the legacy of the Latin American Left revitalizes
throughout the continent.
People protesting in the streets understand the principle "to democratize means to de-marketize,
to recuperate for the terrain of people's rights that which neoliberalism has delivered into the
hands of the market," Emir Sader, The Weakest Link? Neoliberalism in Latin America, New Left Review
52, July-August 2008.
"Latin America is seeing its biggest wave of protests in years," Sara Schaefer Munoz, Protest
Wave Poses Test for Latin American Leaders, The Wall Street Journal, Sept. 9, 2013. Tens of thousands
hit the streets in Brazil, Mexico, Columbia, and Chile where, across the board, they demand the
return of some alikeness of a viable social contract.
The Free Market Battles The People
In strong opposition to interference with neoliberalism, as stated in the Wall Street Journal:
"There is always the temptation [for governments] to spend, to improve roads or give credit to
small producers,' said Alejandro Grisanti, an economist with Barclays PLC, 'But if the market
smells even a little fiscal relaxation, it will be a negative."
Thus, the battle lines between neoliberalism and a social contract are embedded within the
dictates of the "free market," which, if it "smells" a little fiscal relaxation, negative consequences
will hit the country via Wall Street and the City, the worldwide "epicenters for free-market discipline,"
chastising the perpetrators.
Thus and so, the battle lines are clear, Markets on one side, people on the other. The markets
control the press, the banks, the military, the educational establishment, the media, the communications,
and the police. The People control protests. The war continues in the streets.
As it happens, the Western press does not follow it in any detail, but hidden wars have been
ongoing throughout Latin America for years.
Chiapas, Mexico, "The Zapatistas form the most important resistance movement of the last two
decades," Chris Hedges, We All Must Become Zapatistas, Truthdig, June 1, 2014: "They understood
that corporate capitalism had launched a war against us. They showed us how to fight back. The
Zapatistas began by using violence, but they soon abandoned it for the slow, laborious work of
building 32 autonomous, self-governing municipalities."
In Bolivia, the Cochabamba Water War of 2000 erupted in protest of privatization of the city's
municipal water supply accompanied by blatant increases in water bills. Coordinadora in Defense
of Water and Life, a community coalition of citizens of Cochabamba, activated tens of thousands
protesting in the streets. This massive public pressure caused the city to reverse the water privatization.
Brazil's landless peasant movement ("MST"), 2,000,000 strong, commenced three decades ago,
campaigning across the country to change a semi-feudal situation in which, they claim, less than
3% of the population owns two-thirds of the land and more than half the farmland lies idle, while
millions of rural workers lack employment. Government forces have killed fifteen hundred (1,500)
land reform activists. This hidden war continues to this day, as their struggle is carried out
in the remote hinterlands.
Institutionally, the past decade has resulted in a pronounced shift away from pro-market forces,
as repudiation of pro-market policies i.e., the Washington Consensus, is the raison d'etre of
opposition candidates. By 2010, " roughly 330 million people – or two thirds of Latin America's
total population - living in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Nicaragua, Uruguay, and Venezuela
were governed by the left at the national level," Gustavo A. Flores-Macias, After Neoliberalism?
The Left and Economic Reforms in Latin America, Oxford University Press, 2012.
"It's not hard to understand why: Economics. Few want to go back to the disastrous neoliberalism
of the 1980s and 1990s," Greg Grandin, Why the Left Continues to Win in Latin America, The Nation,
October 27, 2014, "The inability of the right to pull together a coalition and articulate a larger
vision shows the depths to which the Cold War in Latin America served as something like a five-decade-long
voter-preference-suppression project. Washington-led and financed anti-communism united the right's
various branches. Without such an organizing principle the right can't electorally compete, at
least for now, with what voters, all things considered, want: economic justice, a dignified life,
peace and social welfare."
The Twilight of Neoliberalism
"There is no alternative [to free market policies]," the late British Prime Minister Margaret
Thatcher once (1980s) pronounced, but across Latin America, there has been a steady erosion of
support for the free market model.
Wherever Latin American countries have rejected neoliberalism, life is better. "Poverty in
Latin America has been reduced substantially in the last three decades. In the late 1980s, nearly
half of Latin America's population lived in poverty. Today the fraction is about a third. This
marks important progress, and it has continued in some area nations. However, it is worth noting
that between 2002 and 2008, poverty contracted most in Venezuela, Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Argentina,
countries which had largely abandoned neoliberalism," Dr. Ronn Pineo, Senior Research Fellow,
The Free Market Experiment in Latin America: Assessing Past Policies and the Search for a Pathway
Forward, Council on Hemispheric Affairs, April 11, 2013.
Overall income inequality data for Latin America is less positive; however, during the 2000s
the Gini coefficient (a measure of economic inequality) improved in seven countries, five of which,
Venezuela, Argentina, Bolivia, Nicaragua, and Paraguay have moved the furthest away from neoliberalism.
In 1970, the richest one percent in the continent earned 363 times more than the poorest one
percent. Thirty years later, on the heels of the neoliberal experiment, it's 417 times.
Mainstream economic publications, like The Economist, claim the continent is well on its way
to building middle class societies. Au contraire, the evidence suggest otherwise, as 8 out of
10 new jobs in Latin America are in the "informal sector" where more than half of all Latin American
workers slug it out as itinerant retail sales clerks, day laborers and other loosely organized
day jobs, slugging it out without regulations or benefits, slugging it out by scratching out a
measly day-by-day existence. Proof positive of neoliberalistic policies enfeebling Latin American
life.
Furthermore, because the bar is set so low for middle class status in Latin America, it's in
the sewer.
For example, in Chile, which is the darling of neoliberalists: "Mid-level income is very low
in Chile. As a result the distance between the lower classes and the middle class is very small.
Their precarious economic position makes them susceptible to social decline due to unemployment,
illness, or poverty in old age," Chile's Middle Class Survives on Shaky Ground, Deutsche Welle,
2014. The middle class is defined as those who make more than $500 per month, which equates to
$3.12 per hour.
Throughout Latin America, neoliberalism does not work for society because, by siphoning away
funds for the betterment of society to enrichment of the elite, two-thirds of Latin American municipalities
do not have the funds to treat their sewage but do dump in rivers, and three-fourths do not check
public drinking water, so, little wonder tourists get diarrhea on regular occasion.
Here's what Cambridge economist Ha-Joon Chang says about neoliberal policies in Latin America:
"Over the last three decades, economists provided theoretical justifications for financial deregulation
and the unrestrained pursuit of short-term profits Economics has been worse than irrelevant.
Economics, as it has been practiced in the last three decades, has been positively harmful," Ibid.
Neoliberalism in Latin America has been a bust, a dud, a fiasco, except for the wealthy for
whom it turned into the bonanza of a lifetime. The people know it, and they're slowly, methodically,
assuredly turning left.
What of the rest of the world?
Robert Hunziker lives inLos Angeles and can be reached at
[email protected]
Prostitution is the quintessential expression of global capitalism. Our corporate masters are
pimps. We are all being debased and degraded, rendered impoverished and powerless, to service the
cruel and lascivious demands of the corporate elite. And when they tire of us, or when we are no
longer of use, we are discarded as human refuse. If we accept prostitution as legal, as Germany has
done, as permissible in a civil society, we will take one more collective step toward the global
plantation being built by the powerful. The fight against prostitution is the fight against a dehumanizing
neoliberalism that begins, but will not end, with the subjugation of impoverished girls and women.
Poverty is not an aphrodisiac. Those who sell their bodies for sex do so out of desperation. They
often end up physically injured, with a variety of diseases and medical conditions, and suffering
from severe emotional trauma. The left is made morally bankrupt by its failure to grasp that legal
prostitution is another face of neoliberalism. Selling your body for sex is not a choice. It is not
about freedom. It is an act of economic slavery.
On a rainy night recently I walked past the desperate street prostitutes in the 15 square blocks
that make up the Downtown Eastside ghetto in Vancouver-most of them impoverished aboriginal women.
I saw on the desolate street corners where women wait for customers the cruelty and despair that
will characterize most of our lives if the architects of neoliberalism remain in power. Downtown
Eastside has the highest HIV infection rate in North America. It is filled with addicts, the broken,
the homeless, the old and the mentally ill, all callously tossed onto the street.
This idea of two segregated societies within one nation is pretty convincing.
Notable quotes:
"... A book released last March by MIT economist Peter Temin argues that the U.S. is increasingly becoming what economists call a dual economy; that is, where there are two economies in effect, and one of the populations lives in an economy that is prosperous and secure, and the other part of the population lives in an economy that resembles those of some third world countries. ..."
"... The middle class is shrinking in the United States and this is an effect of both the advance of technology and American policies ..."
"... In the United States, our policies have divided us into two groups. Above the median income - above the middle class - is what I call the FTE sector, Finance, Technology and Electronics sector - of people who are doing well, and whose incomes are rising as our national product is growing. The middle class and below are losing shares of income, and their incomes are shrinking as the Pew studies, both of them, show. ..."
"... The model shows that the FTE sector makes policy for itself, and really does not consider how well the low wage sector is doing. In fact, it wants to keep wages and earnings low in the low wage sector, to provide cheap labour for the industrial employment. ..."
"... As already described , the middle-class, which has not collapsed yet in France, still has the characteristics that fit to the neoliberal regime. However, it is obvious that this tank of voters has shrunk significantly, and the establishment is struggling to keep them inside the desirable 'status quo' with tricks like the supposedly 'fresh', apolitical image of Emmanuel Macron, the threat of Le Pen's 'evil' figure that comes from the Far-Right, or, the illusion that they have the right to participate equally to almost every economic activity. ..."
"... The media promotes examples of young businessmen who have succeed to survive economically through start-up companies, yet, they avoid to tell that it is totally unrealistic to expect from most of the Greek youth to become innovative entrepreneurs. So, this illusion is promoted by the media because technology is automating production and factories need less and less workers, even in the public sector, which, moreover, is violently forced towards privatization. ..."
"... In the middle of the pyramid, a restructured class will serve and secure the domination of the top. Corporate executives, big journalists, scientific elites, suppression forces. It is characteristic that academic research is directed on the basis of the profits of big corporations. Funding is directed increasingly to practical applications in areas that can bring huge profits, like for example, the higher automation of production and therefore, the profit increase through the restriction of jobs. ..."
The Pew Research Center, released a new study on the size of the middle class in the U.S.
and in ten European countries. The study found that the middle class shrank significantly in the
U.S. in the last two decades from 1991 to 2010. While it also shrank in several other Western European
countries, it shrank far more in the U.S. than anywhere else. Meanwhile, another study also released
last week, and published in the journal Science, shows that class mobility in the U.S. declined dramatically
in the 1980s, relative to the generation before that.
A book released last March by MIT economist Peter Temin argues that the U.S. is increasingly
becoming what economists call a dual economy; that is, where there are two economies in effect, and
one of the populations lives in an economy that is prosperous and secure, and the other part of the
population lives in an economy that resembles those of some third world countries.
MIT Economist Peter Temin spoke to Gregory Wilpert and the
The Real News network.
As Temin states, among other things:
The middle class is shrinking in the United States and this is an effect of both the advance
of technology and American policies . That is shown dramatically in the new study, because the
United States is compared with many European countries. In some of them, the middle class is expanding
in the last two decades, and in others it's decreasing. And while technology crosses national borders,
national policies affect things within the country.
In the United States, our policies have divided us into two groups. Above the median income
- above the middle class - is what I call the FTE sector, Finance, Technology and Electronics sector
- of people who are doing well, and whose incomes are rising as our national product is growing.
The middle class and below are losing shares of income, and their incomes are shrinking as the Pew
studies, both of them, show.
The model shows that the FTE sector makes policy for itself, and really does not consider
how well the low wage sector is doing. In fact, it wants to keep wages and earnings low in the low
wage sector, to provide cheap labour for the industrial employment.
This model is similar to that pursued in eurozone through the Greek experiment. Yet, the establishment's
decision centers still need the consent of the citizens to proceed. They got it in France with the
election of their man to do the job, Emmanuel Macron.
As already
described , the middle-class, which has not collapsed yet in France, still has
the characteristics that fit to the neoliberal regime. However, it is obvious that this tank of voters
has shrunk significantly, and the establishment is struggling to keep them inside the desirable 'status
quo' with tricks like the supposedly 'fresh', apolitical image of Emmanuel Macron, the threat of
Le Pen's 'evil' figure that comes from the Far-Right, or, the illusion that they have the right to
participate equally to almost every economic activity.
For example, even in Greece, where the middle class suffered an unprecedented reduction because
of Troika's (ECB, IMF, European Commission) policies, the last seven years, the propaganda of the
establishment attempts to make young people believe that they can equally participate in innovative
economic projects. The media promotes examples of young businessmen who have succeed to survive
economically through start-up companies, yet, they avoid to tell that it is totally unrealistic to
expect from most of the Greek youth to become innovative entrepreneurs. So, this illusion is promoted
by the media because technology is automating production and factories need less and less workers,
even in the public sector, which, moreover, is violently forced towards privatization.
As mentioned in
previous article , the target of the middle class extinction in the West is to
restrict the level of wages in developing economies and prevent current model to be expanded in those
countries. The global economic elite is aiming now to create a more simple model which will be consisted
basically of three main levels.
The 1% holding the biggest part of the global wealth, will lie, as always, at the top of the pyramid.
In the current phase, frequent and successive economic crises, not only assist on the destruction
of social state and uncontrolled massive privatizations, but also, on the elimination of the big
competitors.
In the middle of the pyramid, a restructured class will serve and secure the domination of
the top. Corporate executives, big journalists, scientific elites, suppression forces. It is characteristic
that academic research is directed on the basis of the profits of big corporations. Funding is directed
increasingly to practical applications in areas that can bring huge profits, like for example, the
higher automation of production and therefore, the profit increase through the restriction of jobs.
The base of the pyramid will be consisted by the majority of workers in global level, with restricted
wages, zero labor rights, and nearly zero opportunities for activities other than consumption.
This type of dual economy with the rapid extinction of middle class may bring dangerous instability
because of the vast vacuum created between the elites and the masses. That's why the experiment is
implemented in Greece, so that the new conditions to be tested. The last seven years, almost every
practice was tested: psychological warfare, uninterrupted propaganda, financial coups, permanent
threat for a sudden death of the economy, suppression measures, in order to keep the masses subservient,
accepting the new conditions.
The establishment exploits the fact that the younger generations have no collective memories of
big struggles. Their rights were taken for granted and now they accept that these must be taken away
for the sake of the investors who will come to create jobs. These generations were built and raised
according to the standards of the neoliberal regime 'Matrix'.
Yet, it is still not certain that people will accept this Dystopia so easily. The first signs
can be seen already as recently,
French workers seized factory and threatened to blow it up in protest over possible closure
. Macron may discover soon that it will be very difficult to find the right balance in
order to finish the job for the elites. And then, neither Brussels nor Berlin will be able to prevent
the oncoming chaos in Europe and the West.
"... It doesn't matter what the people vote for. Either you do what we say or we will smash your banking system." Tsipras's job is to say, "Yes I will do whatever you want. I want to stay in power rather than falling in election." ..."
"... Somebody's going to suffer. Should it the wealthy billionaires and the bankers, or should it be the Greek workers? Well, the Greek workers are not the IMF's constituency. It says: "We feel your pain, but we'd rather you suffer than our constituency." ..."
"... The basic principle at work is that finance is the new form of warfare. You can now destroy a country's economy not merely by invading it. You don't even have to bomb it, as you've done in the Near East. All you have to do is withdraw all credit to the banking system, isolate it economically from making payments to foreign countries so that you essentially put sanctions on it. You'll treat Greece like they've treated Iran or other countries. ..."
"... The class war is back in business – the class war of finance against labor, imposing austerity and shrinking living standards, lowering wages and cutting back social spending. It's demonstrating who's the winner in this economic warfare that's taking place. ..."
"... Then why is the Greek population still supportive of Syriza in spite of all of this? I mean, literally not only have they, as a population, been cut to no social safety net, no social security, yet the Syriza government keeps getting supported, elected in referendums, and they seem to be able to maintain power in spite of these austerity measures. Why is that happening? ..."
"... You also need a contingency plan for when the European Union wrecks the Greek banks, which basically have been the tool of the oligarchy in Greece. The government is going to have to take over these banks and socialize them, and use them for public purposes. Unfortunately, Tsipras never gave Varoufakis and his staff the go ahead. In effect, he ended up double crossing them after the referendum two years ago that said not to surrender. That lead to Varoufakis resigning from the government. ..."
"... Tsipras decided that he wanted to be reelected, and turned out to be just a politician, realizing that in order to he had to represent the invader and act as a client politician. His clientele is now the European Union, the IMF and the bondholders, not the Greeks. What that means is that if there is an election in Greece, people are not going to vote for him again. He knows that. He is trying to prevent an election. But later this month the Greek parliament is going to have to vote on whether or not to shrink the economy further and cut pensions even more. ..."
"... The Greek government has not said that no country should be obliged to disregard its democratic voting, dismantle its public sector and give up its sovereignty to bondholders. No country should be obliged to pay foreign creditors if the price of that is shrinking and self destruction of that economy. ..."
"... They haven't translated this political program of not paying into what this means in practice to cede sovereignty to the Brussels bureaucracy, meaning the European Central Bank on behalf of its bondholders. ..."
Sharmini Peries: The European Commission announced on May 2, that an agreement on Greek pension
and income tax reforms would pave the way for further discussions on debt release for Greece. The
European Commission described this as good news for Greece. The Greek government described the situation
in similar terms. However, little attention has been given as to how the wider Greek population are
experiencing the consequences of the policies of the Troika. On May Day thousands of Greeks marked
International Workers Day with anti-austerity protests. One of the protester's a 32-year-old lawyer
perhaps summed the mood, the best when he said
"The current Greek government, like all the ones before it, have implemented measures that has
only one goal, the crushing of the workers, the working class and everyone who works themselves
to the bone. We are fighting for the survival of the poorest who need help the most."
To discuss the most recent negotiations underway between Greece and the TROIKA, which is a European
Central Bank, the EU and the IMF, here's Michael Hudson. Michael is a distinguished research professor
of Economics at the University of Missouri, Kansas City. He is the author of many books including,
"Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Bondage the Global Economy" and most recently
"J is for Junk Economics: A Survivor's Guide to Economic Vocabulary in the Age of Deception" .Michael,
let's start with what's being negotiated at the moment.
Michael Hudson: I wouldn't call it a negotiation. Greece is simply being dictated to. There
is no negotiation at all. It's been told that its economy has shrunk so far by 20%, but has to shrink
another 5% making it even worse than the depression. Its wages have fallen and must be cut by another
10%. Its pensions have to be cut back. Probably 5 to 10% of its population of working age will have
to immigrate.
The intention is to cut the domestic tax revenues (not raise them), because labor won't be paying
taxes and businesses are going out of business. So we have to assume that the deliberate intention
is to lower the government's revenues by so much that Greece will have to sell off even more of its
public domain to foreign creditors. Basically it's a smash and grab exercise, and the role of Tsipras
is not to represent the Greeks because the Troika have said, "The election doesn't matter.
It doesn't matter what the people vote for. Either you do what we say or we will smash your
banking system." Tsipras's job is to say, "Yes I will do whatever you want. I want to stay in power
rather than falling in election."
Sharmini Peries: Right. Michael you dedicated almost three chapters in your book "Killing
the Host" to how the IMF economists actually knew that Greece will not be able to pay back its foreign
debt, but yet it went ahead and made these huge loans to Greece. It's starting to sound like the
mortgage fraud scandal where banks were lending people money to buy houses when they knew they couldn't
pay it back. Is it similar?
Michael Hudson: The basic principle is indeed the same. If a creditor makes a loan to a country
or a home buyer knowing that there's no way in which the person can pay, who should bear the responsibility
for this? Should the bad lender or irresponsible bondholder have to pay, or should the Greek people
have to pay?
IMF economists said that Greece can't pay, and under the IMF rules it is not allowed to make loans
to countries that have no chance of repaying in the foreseeable future. The then-head of the IMF,
Dominique Strauss-Kahn, introduced a new rule – the "systemic problem" rule. It said that if Greece
doesn't repay, this will cause problems for the economic system – defined as the international bankers,
bondholder's and European Union budget – then the IMF can make the loan.
This poses a question on international law. If the problem is systemic, not Greek, and if it's
the system that's being rescued, why should Greek workers have to dismantle their economy? Why should
Greece, a sovereign nation, have to dismantle its economy in order to rescue a banking system that
is guaranteed to continue to cause more and more austerity, guaranteed to turn the Eurozone into
a dead zone? Why should Greece be blamed for the bad malstructured European rules? That's the moral
principle that's at stake in all this.
Sharmini Peries: Michael, The New York Times has recently published an article titled,
"IMF torn over whether to bail out Greece again." It essentially describes the IMF as being sympathetic
towards Greece in spite of the fact, as you say, they knew that Greece could not pay back this money
when it first lent it the money with the Troika. Right now, the IMF sounds rational and thoughtful
about the Greek people. Is this the case?
Michael Hudson: Well, Yanis Varoufakis, the finance minister under Syriza, said that every
time he talked to the IMF's Christine Lagarde and others two years ago, they were sympathetic. They
said, "I am terribly sorry we have to destroy your economy. I feel your pain, but we are indeed going
to destroy your economy. There is nothing we can do about it. We are only following orders." The
orders were coming from Wall Street, from the Eurozone and from investors who bought or guaranteed
Greek bonds.
Being sympathetic, feeling their pain doesn't really mean anything if the IMF says, "Oh, we know
it is a disaster. We are going to screw you anyway, because that's our job. We are the IMF, after
all. Our job is to impose austerity. Our job is to shrink economies, not help them grow. Our constituency
is the bondholders and banks."
Somebody's going to suffer. Should it the wealthy billionaires and the bankers, or should it be
the Greek workers? Well, the Greek workers are not the IMF's constituency. It says: "We feel your
pain, but we'd rather you suffer than our constituency."
So what you read is simply the usual New York Times hypocrisy, pretending that the IMF
really is feeling bad about what it's doing. If its economists felt bad, they would have done what
the IMF European staff did a few years ago after the first loan: They resigned in protest. They would
write about it and go public and say, "This system is corrupt. The IMF is working for the bankers
against the interest of its member countries." If they don't do that, they are not really sympathetic
at all. They are just hypocritical.
Sharmini Peries: Right. I know that the European Commission is holding up Greece as an
example in order to discourage other member nations in the periphery of Europe so that they won't
default on their loans. Explain to me why Greece is being held up as an example.
Michael Hudson: It's being made an example for the same reason the United States went into
Libya and bombed Syria: It's to show that we can destroy you if you don't do what we say. If Spain
or Italy or Portugal seeks not to pay its debts, it will meet the same fate. Its banking system will
be destroyed, and its currency system will be destroyed.
The basic principle at work is that finance is the new form of warfare. You can now destroy a
country's economy not merely by invading it. You don't even have to bomb it, as you've done in the
Near East. All you have to do is withdraw all credit to the banking system, isolate it economically
from making payments to foreign countries so that you essentially put sanctions on it. You'll treat
Greece like they've treated Iran or other countries.
"We have life and death power over you." The demonstration effect is not only to stop Greece,
but to stop countries from doing what Marine Le Pen is trying to do in France: withdraw from the
Eurozone.
The class war is back in business – the class war of finance against labor, imposing austerity
and shrinking living standards, lowering wages and cutting back social spending. It's demonstrating
who's the winner in this economic warfare that's taking place.
Sharmini Peries:Then why is the Greek population still supportive of Syriza in spite of
all of this? I mean, literally not only have they, as a population, been cut to no social safety
net, no social security, yet the Syriza government keeps getting supported, elected in referendums,
and they seem to be able to maintain power in spite of these austerity measures. Why is that happening?
Michael Hudson: Well, that's the great tragedy. They initially supported Syriza because
it promised not to surrender in this economic war. They said they would fight back. The plan was
not pay the debts even if this led Europe to force Greece out of the European Union.
In order to do this, however, what Yanis Varoufakis and his advisors such as James Galbraith wanted
to do was say, "If we are going not to pay the debt, we are going to be expelled from the Euro Zone.
We have to have our own currency. We have to have our own banking system." But it takes almost a
year to put in place your own physical currency, your own means of reprogramming the ATM machines
so that people can use it, and reprogramming the banking system.
You also need a contingency plan for when the European Union wrecks the Greek banks, which basically
have been the tool of the oligarchy in Greece. The government is going to have to take over these
banks and socialize them, and use them for public purposes. Unfortunately, Tsipras never gave Varoufakis
and his staff the go ahead. In effect, he ended up double crossing them after the referendum two
years ago that said not to surrender. That lead to Varoufakis resigning from the government.
Tsipras decided that he wanted to be reelected, and turned out to be just a politician, realizing
that in order to he had to represent the invader and act as a client politician. His clientele is
now the European Union, the IMF and the bondholders, not the Greeks. What that means is that if there
is an election in Greece, people are not going to vote for him again. He knows that. He is trying
to prevent an election. But later this month the Greek parliament is going to have to vote on whether
or not to shrink the economy further and cut pensions even more.
If there are defections from Tsipras's Syriza party, there will be an election and he will be
voted out of office. I won't say out of power, because he has no power except to surrender to the
Troika. But he'd be out of office. There will probably have to be a new party created if there's
going to be hope of withstanding the threats that the European Union is making to destroy Greece's
economy if it doesn't succumb to the austerity program and step up its privatization and sell off
even more assets to the bondholders.
Sharmini Peries: Finally, Michael, why did the Greek government remove the option of Grexit
from the table in order to move forward?
Michael Hudson: In order to accept the Eurozone. You're using its currency, but Greece
needs to have its own currency. The reason it agreed to stay in was that it had made no preparation
for withdrawing. Imagine if you are a state in the United States and you want to withdraw: you have
to have your own currency. You have to have your own banking system. You have to have your own constitution.
There was no attempt to put real thought behind what their political program was.
They were not prepared and still have not taken steps to prepare for what they are doing. They
haven't made any attempt to justify non-payment of the debt under International Law: the law of odious
debt, or give a reason why they are not paying.
The Greek government has not said that no country should be obliged to disregard its democratic
voting, dismantle its public sector and give up its sovereignty to bondholders. No country should
be obliged to pay foreign creditors if the price of that is shrinking and self destruction of that
economy.
They haven't translated this political program of not paying into what this means in practice
to cede sovereignty to the Brussels bureaucracy, meaning the European Central Bank on behalf of its
bondholders.
Note: Wikipedia defines Odious Debt: "In international law, odious debt, also known as illegitimate
debt, is a legal doctrine that holds that the national debt incurred by a regime for purposes that
do not serve the best interests of the nation, should not be enforceable."
"... My position is that Russia and Europe share the continent and one can hitchhike from Amsterdam to Moscow. One cannot hitchhike
from New York to Amsterdam, right? I somehow cannot foresee that far-right is in Russian interest at all. ..."
"... A third of French voters voted Le Pen. In a civilized country with a free press you would then expect roughly a third of newspapers
to be in favor of Le Pen, two thirds in favor of Macron. But coverage in favor of Macron was close to 100%. Newspapers, tv, web, the
chancellors of the main universities, the french medical association, you name it: they told you to vote Macron. ..."
"... The US media etc was overwhelmingly anti-Trump and yet he won. I wish he hadn't, but he did. Enough voters chose him regardless
of what they were told. In France, the voters were exposed to a similar barrage and chose to vote against the far-right candidate this
time. Perhaps that's partly because Trump and the Brexiteers gave them a taste of what to expect; an indication of how half-arsed and
hypocritical the far-right populists can turn out to be. ..."
"... Well it looks like to me that France just elected obomber 2.0. Please let me know in a few years how that hope and change thingy
works in France. It didn't work in Amerika for us the 99% but was great for the 1%. ..."
"... Macron is the new and improved Obama marketing product/politician. Find a young person without defined policies, brand them
in opposition to something "bad", throw the full support of media and elites behind them, and install them in office to continue austerity/financialization/war
policy as per usual. ..."
"... "However, even if Marine Le Pen had won in the final round, the establishment would force her to follow the status quo agenda
of the plutocracy, exactly as happened with Donald Trump in the United States." ..."
"... Macron but doesn't seem to be as odious and horrid as Clinton, ..."
"... Macron will continue to convert France into what Charles Hugh Smith calls a plantation economy: http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapr17/corp-plantation4-17.html
This echoes the work of David Korten in his book "When Corporations Rule the World" and Michael Hudson in his book "Killing the Host"
Macron's Tomorrowland world favors only the political class, rentiers of the Financial, Insurance and real estate sector (FIRE), extractive
transnational corporations, and their media propagandists. ..."
"... Relevant to my # 39.... http://www.mediaite.com/tv/trump-gets-three-major-networks-to-broadcast-image-of-empty-podium-for-30-minutes/
No one else got this obscene spectacle. So much for the Kremlin influencing foreign "democracies". ..."
"... Bright? Quiet? Plese, this guy IS the establishment itself, he was pushed forward from nowhere by the media, apparently you
have sucked up all their propaganda for him, similar to dupes that loved Obama when he was elected the first time. ..."
"... As someone who spent ten years on Wall Street, I can tell you with certainty that you don't go from updating excel models at
a junior level to partner overnight. Someone extraordinarily powerful was pulling all sorts of strings for this guy. There seems to
be little doubt about this. ..."
"... I just read Escobar's piece on the election. He makes some good points about today's post-Orwellian meanings of left and right
- vastly different from earlier times. ..."
"... What French voters have – sort of – endorsed is the unity of neoliberal economy and cultural liberalism. Call it, like Michea,
"integrated liberalism." Or, with all the Orwellian overtones, "post-democratic capitalism."A true revolt of the elites. And "peasants"
buy it willingly. Let them eat overpriced croissants. Once again, France is leading the West. ..."
"... That link again: Emmanuel Clinton and the revolt of the elites Let them eat overpriced croissants. Nailed it. ..."
"... France just "elected" Western Europe's version of HRC. The Banksters are dancing in the streets, and France will STILL be the
U$A's bitch. ..."
"... Somehow Macron is the smallest detail of what is going on. The old two major parties have imploded and the survivors are trying
to fight for life by joining the new big centrist Macron-EU lobby movement. Everyday is about a new betrayal, a new U-turn on what has
been signed or promessed by this or that party-member (Valls is the funniest to follow). The French politicians are and have been a
mafia, Corsican type, ever since the 30s (or maybe before already?). Macron won't have much support in the coming parliament. Episode
2 is 18th June, results of the 2nd round of parliamentary election. ..."
"... The reason she is used first is to make her bigger against the other candidates. It worked this time against Mélenchon, who
had initially better chances than her to win, and who might even have won against Macron (25 % abstention + 10 % blank votes is still
a big reserve for anyone). But the Mélenchon was hailed "same as Le Pen", "friend of Putin and Castro", "supporting Syrian regime" etc.
..."
"... He was not elected by the people but through the electoral system. So the people didnt really took the opposite route of the
media. ..."
"... Actually none of the above won 37% of the voters and Macron came in at 24% which is slightly above Le Pen at 21%. The rest
voted against Le Pen by voting for Macron. ..."
"... This is one hell of a way to run an election and a country. The political divisions are terminal as in the US. The difference,
is that the French allow their leaders to run things until they get few up and than throw a tantrum. In this case the cobblestones will
fly and the transportation system will shut down. ..."
"... (Look at Ukraine for a perfect example - they believed the nationalists' lies just like you do.) ... ..."
"... Conflating the violent Putch in Ukraine with the stance of a France-for-the-French Nationalist is inane, to put it mildly.
And as an Aussie, I can assure you that our Neolib, Turnbull, Totalitarian Capitalist, pro-middleman-itis, industry-destroying Govt
could teach the French Swamp a thing or two about 'honeyed lies' and shameless betrayal by politicians - (whilst feathering their own
ne$t$). ..."
"... The photoshopped image is funny. Good one. Hummvee, a.k.a. appeal to the reptilian brain. Does anyone know? I heard that Merkel
has a PhD in physics (PhD in alemania is like a masters degree in amerika). So the imagery is maybe not so far from truth. ..."
"... I most certainly don't support neoliberals like Turnbull, Macron or whoever, but with the nationalists you'd get 'the same
but more so', plus heightened conflicts between various groups in society, a.k.a. divide and rule. Look at history, and don't be fooled
(again). ..."
"... More on the creation of Macron and the puppeteers behind him. It is a tangled web: http://www.voltairenet.org/article196289.html
..."
"... Juxtapose one against the other - and it's pretty clear that German strength is a mirror reflection of French weakness. Because
both countries share the same currency, the only way for France to recover is for Germany to become sick. Therein lie the seeds of conflict.
Far from invigorated partnership, one should expect gradual, yet unrelenting unraveling of Franco-German relations. Frustrated Macron
will prove Germany's worst nightmare. It simply can't be any other way. ..."
"... is micron really petain in drag? ..."
"... Here's another excellent Monthly Review essay, this time by Henry A. Giroux: Trump's America: Rethinking 1984 and Brave New
World , https://monthlyreview.org/2017/05/01/trumps-america/ ..."
What this Macron victory proves is that the French lean more Left to Centre, therefore the key was to support and promote a non-interventionist
candidate on the Left opposed to Neoliberalism, like Melenchon instead of a radically rightist Le Pen who scared off half of France.
Let's just say that a country that has multiple parties on the Left is NEVER going to vote in a radical rightist populist,
never. So the strategy to be free of Neoliberalism in a country that leans Left is to always throw all the support behind a leftist
party that opposes Neoliberalism.
Supporting Le Pen only to get a change in French foreign policy was doomed from the start.
And here's another thing: a party that opposes Neoliberalism and has a non-interventionist foreign policy, should try to be
more flexible on domestic issues not socialist to an extreme to grab the attention of wider public while playing down slightly
their foreign policy UNTIL victory is achieved. This is how you wean the dumb masses. Once in power then it can go all the way
to reverse interventionist foreign policy and weed out Neoliberal/Neocon agendas.
Hollande's repeated invitations of Marine Le Pen to the Elysée presidential palace during his presidency played the same role
as Macron's appeal to the FN in the name of national unity last night: to show that the PS and Macron view the FN as legitimate
political partners.
Like Hollande, Macron appears to be cultivating the FN as a political base for his deeply unpopular program. He has pledged
to use the PS' anti-democratic labor law to tear up contracts and social spending by decree, escalate defense spending, and
reestablish the draft in preparation for an era of major wars.
Mélenchon appealed last night for voters to give UF a strong delegation in the National Assembly in the June legislative
elections, which would strengthen his bid to become Macron's prime minister.
... the trots at wsws.org see a push by unsubmissive france into the vacuum created by micron as 'treasonous' ... of course.
but something might come of it ... Mélenchon hit some of the same points that le pen hit and may garner support from her stalwarts
on those points. he might make something of it. might temper the unmitigated disaster of micron and the franco-american-german
eu-financial axis.
Monday the French will awaken and find they live on an Animal Farm where the local French pigs suppress the people for the benefit
of the wild boars of savage globalism.
In truth the French deserve this fate as they chose the American "dream of comfort and conformity" that Alexis de Tocqueville
described as democratic tyranny that "reduces each nation to nothing more than a herd of timid and industrious animals of which
the government is the shepherd". He attributed the rise of such "democratic despotism, to a benign form of social control by a
centralized bureaucratic state supported by a weakened and isolated citizenry."
A French comedian recently pointed out that washing machines have more programs than Macron! Unfortunately, as Asselineau points
out, Macron was brilliantly marketed to the French public as one would advertise a new detergent designed to clean up a mess!
The Marketing was led by Jacque Attali the Grand Vizier of the French establishment and Macron's mentor. Apparently, Attali's
team published 17,000 articles promoting Macron in the last year. Attali also coordinated the combined assault on the other candidates
by the media, banks and corporations that will now benefit from Macron's election.
Asselineau also suggests that the French read de Gaulle's memoirs, especially chapter 1 and 2. The 2015 book Soumission by
Houellebecq plays off de Gaulle's warning.
The situation is grave and the French have been played by the best propaganda campaign since Hitler. Bernays, the author of
the book "propaganda" and the inspiration for Hitler and modern marketing would be impressed...
I love how people here use the term 'installed' as if Macron wasn't elected. As if the French people desperately wanted a far-right
leader, but somehow never got the chance to vote for one. As if Le Pen would do more for the French working class than Trump has
done for the American working class. As if Le Pen would really pursue the kind of anti-imperialist and anti-oligarchical policies
that Trump pretended to favour. As if putting the boot into muslims wasn't Le Pen's first, second and third priority.
I love how people here use the term 'installed' as if Macron wasn't elected. As if the French people desperately wanted
a far-right leader, but somehow never got the chance to vote for one.
Very good observation.
As if Trump was installed and in general presidents are installed by the virtue of an "invisible hand" that manipulates the
markets and currencies. That may (and did) happen in some small satellite 'allied" NATO countries and with the help of intelligence
community steering the mindset, but not on the level of an obscure conspiracy group sitting in a dark room observing the world
and manipulating it from afar.
People do vote here in Europe and they get what the current state of mind is.
Le Pen is out and for good as her win would be definitely the end of EU and a beginning of a very dark period for France through
which UK is tunneling now.
Sad story is that today's general understanding of politics and a will to take a lead, we all are forced to choose between
two varieties of stupidity and crookedness as the case was in USA. Here were two ideologies confronted and a really bad and evil
one lost for good. Do not mention Russia, please, as we are all tired of hearing how Putin is evil and whatnot.
My position is that Russia and Europe share the continent and one can hitchhike from Amsterdam to Moscow. One cannot hitchhike
from New York to Amsterdam, right? I somehow cannot foresee that far-right is in Russian interest at all.
So, I am actually happy for Trump, as he will put USA in its place by not knowing what is he doing or not doing what he doesn't
know.
Naive and wishful thinking would be - is USA finally leaving the Europe for good, keeping UK under its skirts as a staging
lapdance island outpost?
Born
3 February 1967
Quimper, Finistère, France
Died
5 May 2017 (aged 50)
Plouisy, Côtes d'Armor, France
Occupation
Politician
Socialist Party
Corinne Erhel (3 February 1967 – 5 May 2017) was a French politician. She served as a member of the National Assembly from 2007
to 2017, representing the Côtes-d'Armor department.
What clarity I see with most of this thread's posters. Its amazing anyone would put their faith in Le Pen - for a thousand different
reasons but especially after Trump's showing. It scares me how some people are so latched onto this very narrow, far right 'critique'
of globalism and see it as the world's salvation. How easily this faith can be manipulated too. Reminds me of those who were so
energetic about (and facilitated) Mussolini's rise to power.
Not to say the EU stooge is much/any better but its nice to see a more nuanced view here for once.
#8 sigil wrote: "I love how people here use the term 'installed' as if Macron wasn't elected."
A third of French voters voted Le Pen. In a civilized country with a free press you would then expect roughly a third of
newspapers to be in favor of Le Pen, two thirds in favor of Macron. But coverage in favor of Macron was close to 100%. Newspapers,
tv, web, the chancellors of the main universities, the french medical association, you name it: they told you to vote Macron.
I'd like to draw an analogy: Imagine that, at the next presidential elections, newspapers attack the Democratic candidate for
hiring his own wife, but stay mum when documents appear on the net which show corruption by Trump. That all newspapers, all tv
stations, all web sites are in favor of Trump, and - apart from some of the seedier blogs on the web - none in favor of the Democratic
candidate. That the Association of American Universities, the American Medical Association, and the National Academy of Sciences
all ask you to vote Trump. That you get a letter jointly signed by the president of the National Council of Churches, the president
of the US Council of Muslim Organizations, and the Chief Rabbi, asking you to vote Trump. Would you call this free and fair elections?
I wouldn't.
So was that picture photoshopped, b? I couldn't be bothered looking up the source.
At any rate, I think you're going to be proved wrong rapidly. Macron's a bright guy, and ran a very good campaign. That is,
he kept quiet, like May did. But he is really pushy, and evidently competent. I don't know whether that means good or bad. But
lapdog he certainly isn't.
Re 17: The US media etc was overwhelmingly anti-Trump and yet he won. I wish he hadn't, but he did. Enough voters chose him regardless
of what they were told. In France, the voters were exposed to a similar barrage and chose to vote against the far-right candidate
this time. Perhaps that's partly because Trump and the Brexiteers gave them a taste of what to expect; an indication of how half-arsed
and hypocritical the far-right populists can turn out to be.
In all these cases, voters exercised their choices. As did the doctor's associations and university administrators, when choosing
who to endorse. No one was 'installed'. Endorsements aren't a violation of democracy, they're an aspect of it - as is the freedom
to take endorsements seriously or not.
Well it looks like to me that France just elected obomber 2.0. Please let me know in a few years how that hope and change
thingy works in France. It didn't work in Amerika for us the 99% but was great for the 1%.
Both Merkel and Marcon are a couple of M&Ms in the hands of the central bankers and their controllers who call all the shots for
both of these puppets. Politics beyond the local level are manufactured to appear democratic in origin while serving a plutocracy
that controls all eventualities by commanding the life blood of human economics, the Ownership over the creation of all money
and credit. So y'all can relax now until the German and British election cycle gets y'all wound up again over this dog and pony
show as an illusion meant as a distracting deception for the rank and file of humanity.
Macron is the new and improved Obama marketing product/politician. Find a young person without defined policies, brand them
in opposition to something "bad", throw the full support of media and elites behind them, and install them in office to continue
austerity/financialization/war policy as per usual.
It's a brilliant scheme when you consider Macron's "platform" is essentially continuing the failed austerity policies of Hollande,
who is currently approved of by 4% of the French electorate.
The key test will be the parliamentary elections coming up. Can Melenchon put together any support? Can there be a left/right
anti-EU, anti-austerity alliance wide enough to keep the Macron globalists and the traditional right of Fillon from continuing
the downward slide of France?
@8 sigil... installed... yeah, i think that's a good word for what it is... groomed by bankers (rothchild and etc) and coddled
24/7 in the msm which acts as the main propaganda lever in these so called democracy shams.. it has everything to do with plutocracy,
kleptocracy and nothing to do with democracy.. democracy is used as the front, and nothing more.. sorry - someone had to say it...
funny thing - i don't recall using the word installed, but i think it is a good word for where we are at presently.. certain 'regimes'
will be supported more then others, lol...
A paragraph from that link, that mirrors my personal thoughts..
"However, even if Marine Le Pen had won in the final round, the establishment would force her to follow the status quo
agenda of the plutocracy, exactly as happened with Donald Trump in the United States."
Although I've followed this recent French election, I confess to being somewhat ignorant of Macron beyond the basics. Le Pen I
do know more about.
My very ignorant guess is that French voters looked across the Channel and the Pond and saw the clusterfecks in the UK and
the USA and figured an Obama 2.0 might be the better "choice" under the circumstances. As I said, don't know much about Macron
but doesn't seem to be as odious and horrid as Clinton, which is why we're stuck with Trump. IMO (and I was very much open-minded
about Trump once he won) Trump is an unmitigated disaster. I believe Le Pen would've been the same or similar for France (and
elsewhere).
Well the Bankers run the world, do they not? Unsure how to unravel that knot.
Macron will continue to convert France into what Charles Hugh Smith calls a plantation economy:
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogapr17/corp-plantation4-17.html
This echoes the work of David Korten in his book "When Corporations Rule the World" and Michael Hudson in his book "Killing
the Host" Macron's Tomorrowland world favors only the political class, rentiers of the Financial, Insurance and real estate sector
(FIRE), extractive transnational corporations, and their media propagandists.
Macron is a cardboard construct created much like Napoléon (Tolstoy wrote in "war and Peace" if Napoléon Bonaparte did not
exist he would have to be created).
Tocqueville provided a strategy for the people to create a civil society that suppresses the psychopaths that wish to contol
all aspects of society. Adam Smith in his "Wealth of Nations" is mostly about the civil contract among workers and the bosses
and he lays out the three rules of contacts between nations which is actually opposite of the globalists.
I do not think you will be happy in the globalist world order that Macron supports.
Here Madonna supporting Macron. May be considered trivial, just one dopey star shootin' off random perso messages.
I don't think so. Look at these kids, asked to perform and complying clumsily ....for one pres. cand. far away, why? Why? This
is not just random flickr. photos looking for +++ points from aunties.
sigil @ 20 said "The US media etc was overwhelmingly anti-Trump and yet he won."
The truth is, the MSM only opposed Mr. Trump mildly, at best. Through most of Mr. Trump's run for the White House, his coverage
was " wall to wall ". Up to, and including, coverage of a empty podium, while one Bernie Sanders was giving a major live speech
at the same time.
ALL MSM is corporate, and they got just who they wanted, a pro-corporate hack that will do their bidding.
Looks like the French don't read MoA. Maybe if they did things would be different. Instead, something like 65% were bamboozled
by the goddam press and the elites. Isn't it awful when people's right to choose is denied them by these behemoths?
Maybe Trump's performance in his early days had some effect. Maybe his anti-globalist rhetoric that turned out to be pro-.01%
in actual fact gave the French pause. Maybe the French like their world beating health system and standard of living. One of the
reasons for the formation of the EU was to keep the French and Germans from going at it hammer and tongs every few years like
they had since forever and so far it's worked. Could it be that they like the option of traveling freely within the union while
enjoying the benefits they as if they were home? Benefits that certainly didn't come from living in an inward looking country
contemplating its navel.
Now the same folks who waxed ecstatic over Trump's unlikely win have to eat some crow. The snowball effect they so confidently
predicted sweeping European elections has failed to materialize. Who knew people could be so stupid to pass up salvation when
proffered on a silver platter. First the Dutch, and now the French. When will people learn?
Maybe the French are better at reading history books than the Americans.
This could explain why they didn't fall for Le Pen's lies - right-wingers like her always pretend to care for the 'common man
(& woman)', but quickly turn out to be even more corporate-friendly/ pro-capital than their predecessors. If people are upset,
well just offer them some patsy to blame, and laugh while the poor fight each other whites vs. blacks, Christians vs. Muslims
or whatever division comes in handy.
T.'s 'about-face' is by no means surprising; it's standard procedure and was expected by many.
I'd still appreciate if someone could explain to me what 'globalism' means.
The term doesn't make any sense to me, since an '-ism' usually denotes discrimination and classification of humans along certain
lines - but everybody's from the same globe, afaik...(except Elvis, of course)
According to Wikipedia the Gauls were worse at making good hard soap than the Celts and all the various Teutonic tribes ...or
so the olive oil-scraping Romans said. I guess that little bit of knowledge explains a lot of "smelly" jokes and jibes against
southern Europe in general; they really were.
Soap won't work on politicians but soap-making lye should. They say it's all very "green" but you need ash for the lye. Burn
half of them? :P (what's a "shop"?).
France could get very interesting at any point in time without warning, probably more so than any other European nation and
it has been that way for at least a year and a half already. Getting this poodle elected could be a big tactical error on the
part of the powers that be.
I don't trust elections any more than I trust polls, there is no reason to, but it gave "us"/humanity Brexit, so there's that.
Can't tell if b's Merkel-Micron pic is PhotoShopped but Pat Lang is on board with the concept (and context?) with this mid-campaign
cite...
Le Pen quipped during the campaign that France would have a woman president no matter who won because the actual president
would either be She or Angela Merkel.
Jim Stone contends that the election in France was stolen: jist = massive numbers of Le Pen's ballots were torn thus rendering
them uncounted; Macron received half a million extra ballots; the media broadcast the scam that Macron was way ahead in all the
polls; all media support was for Macron; reporting on Macron's dirty underwear was banned.
I get it, Sigil the lefty is happy. I'll go home now. Everything is going to be just fine in France. The French screwed themselves
over, that's all their is to it. You guys had great chance to shake society to it's core but you blew it!!
Bright? Quiet? Plese, this guy IS the establishment itself, he was pushed forward from nowhere by the media, apparently
you have sucked up all their propaganda for him, similar to dupes that loved Obama when he was elected the first time.
Any election system that uses anything other than strategic hedge simple score voting is nothing other than a placebo democracy.
Party-free proportional elections can be achieved with simple score used with the parabolic proportional curve method. Without
such simple methods, we only have simulated / fake democracy that just doesn't work.
sigil @ 20 said "The US media etc was overwhelmingly anti-Trump and yet he won."
Sigil, if you hadn't noticed, Trump came out of the media-entertainment complex...pretty much born of it. That's what you are
asking of Le Pen, to replace her 20 odd years of full tilt political life with self promotion for the sake of ratings.
If he wasn't POTUS, a chump like you would be watching Trunp TV™
Smuks @44--"I'd still appreciate if someone could explain to me what 'globalism' means."
The linked article by Joseph Nye is basically correct and provides a basis for discussion. The concept was also known as Internationalism;
its advocates Internationalists; its antagonists Nationalists or Protectionists. After WW1 the debate over joining The League
of Nations sparked a debate between advocates and antagonists within the Outlaw US Empire that affects us today given the smearing
Pacifists got--Isolationists/Isolationism--as if there were no nuances or grey areas.
@40 peter
I'll hazard a guess that you're not Greek then. Point re: a unified Europe via a tight Franco-German bond is well taken, but at
what cost...? When do Eurocrats and ECBankers come up for re-election...? Hmm, we'll just have to settle for watching another
puppet show I guess.
I wouldnt talk of the far right on series of losses in NL or FR either...the right is on an absolute roll, trending in only
one direction. Seems the French jihadist economy is somewhat of a problem, they're importing more than they're exporting these
days...but shhh...we're not allowed to talk about it.
France took the same old bullet to dodge a bullet, and it will be this way until what remains of the twisted left is reformed
into something backable.
@Brooklyn Bridge 27, 29
Your method doesn't work on Google.
Go to https://unshorten.it/ and paste the short URL into the box there.
Tap on 'Unshorten it' at the end of the box.
Scroll down to the blue 'goto' button at the bottom of the page.
Right click on it and copy the link therein, which is the expanded URL.
They receive a large amount of internet traffic and have the potential ability to fingerprint users and subvert privacy protections.
AFAIK they don't do anything malicious, but I don't know they don't.
So was that picture photoshopped, b? I couldn't be bothered looking up the source. At any rate, I think you're going to
be proved wrong rapidly. Macron's a bright guy, and ran a very good campaign. That is, he kept quiet, like May did. But he is
really pushy, and evidently competent. I don't know whether that means good or bad. But lapdog he certainly isn't.
"He is really pushy, and evidently competent."
Guess you missed reading some of his background. Worked as a Rothschild banker. Had no idea what is EBITDA? Oh my. Read the
link and understand the Whys behind the photo image b posted. Macron was groomed
created out of thin air
[Yet] it wasn't just a Rothschild sponsor who took the young Macron under his wing
What Mr Macron lacked in technical knowledge and jargon at first, he made up for with contacts in government, says Sophie
Javary, head of BNP Paribas' corporate finance in Europe, who was asked by Mr Henrot to coach Mr Macron in the first year.
This is straight up bizarre. It appears Macron was so important to banking interests the had to form a consortium of firms
to all pitch in to help him out. Yet it gets stranger still.
On the Atos deal, Mr Macron "had a fairly junior role at the time - he would be asked to redo the financial models on Excel,
the basics," recalled an adviser. But a few days after the deal was announced, Mr Macron was made a partner. A few months later,
he stunned colleagues and rivals by winning a role in Nestlé's purchase of Pfizer's infant food operations.
As someone who spent ten years on Wall Street, I can tell you with certainty that you don't go from updating excel models
at a junior level to partner overnight. Someone extraordinarily powerful was pulling all sorts of strings for this guy. There
seems to be little doubt about this.
Further hints that Macron is a total manufactured elitist creation can be seen with the following.
At the bank, Mr Macron mastered the art of networking and navigated around the numerous conflicts of interest that arise
in close-knit Parisian business circles, making good use of his connections as an Inspecteur des Finances - an elite corps
of the very highest-ranking graduates from ENA.
In 2010, he advised, for free, the staff of Le Monde when the newspaper was put up for sale. Journalists at the daily
started doubting his loyalty when they happened upon him in conversation with Mr Minc, who was representing a bidding consortium
that the staff opposed. They did not know that it was Mr Minc, a fellow Inspecteur des Finances, who had helped the young Mr
Macron secure his interview at Rothschild.
A media executive who was part of the same consortium recalled: "It wasn't clear who Emmanuel worked for. He was around,
trading intelligence, friends with everyone. It was smart, because he got to know everybody in the media world."
Indeed, who does he work for? I'm sure the French people would like to know.[..]
~ ~ ~ ~ ~
sure he ran a very good campaign. It was so arranged for him – all that $$$$loot and more.
I just read Escobar's piece on the election. He makes some good points about today's post-Orwellian meanings of left and
right - vastly different from earlier times. I'm pretty sure he would agree with the word "installed" - in fact he alludes
to much of the process. I love his writing for its sheer élan, but I have to quote the concluding paragraph:
What French voters have – sort of – endorsed is the unity of neoliberal economy and cultural liberalism. Call it, like
Michea, "integrated liberalism." Or, with all the Orwellian overtones, "post-democratic capitalism."A true revolt of the elites.
And "peasants" buy it willingly. Let them eat overpriced croissants. Once again, France is leading the West.
Thanks, though I'm not much enlightened I'm afraid. Where would you place e.g. the Neocons? Nationalists to the bone, with
global aspirations. 'Internationalism' is a very progressive concept, and mostly associated with the UN, e.g. some form of global
democracy...would you say the same for 'globalism'?
I think that globalism has a negative connotations mostly because of jobs outsourcing overseas. All those telemarketing and
customer service call centers moved to India or Philippines, textile and manufacturing jobs to China and Bangladesh etc - OTOH
we do not mind having cheap Chinese stuff to buy in dollar stores, but it is somewhat irritating when a guy from Mumbai is calling
you to switch to another local phone or cable provider.
Re 63
It's a good article, but I can't see any implication that he believes the voters preferred Le Pen. Terms like 'manufactured' and
'installed' when referring to candidates have their role in drawing attention to elite machinations, but they shouldn't overshadow
the banal fact that the voters really aren't ready to hand power to Le Pen. Most voters don't spend their days picking apart the
tangled threads of Rothschild/NATO/AIPAC/CIA conspiracies, after all. Most voters still think that the euroliberal project can
work, or at any rate, they think the right-wing populists have little to offer beyond thinly-disguised racism. Considering Trump
and the Brexiteers, what other conclusion should they draw?
Excerpt: "From de Gaulle in 1958 to Hollande in 2017, and for all members of the French establishment, the operational principle
of the French towards Africa has been: "invade, intimidate, manipulate, install, antagonize, ingratiate, indemnify, expropriate."
Nothing in this election will change that – only Africans can."
Re 63
It's a good article, but I can't see any implication that he believes the voters preferred Le Pen.
...
Posted by: sigil | May 8, 2017 11:38:51 PM | 69
Me either, and he wasn't. He was attempting to hilight the components of the bamboozlement which the United Swamp inflicted
on French voters. Imo, the Swamp's winning hand was pinning the (fearsome) Far Right label to Le Pen's forehead.
It's ludicrous when seen in the light of her policy platform but it seems to have worked. The following is the nuts & bolts
condensed from an article by James Petras to which I posted a link on the last April Open Thread. There's nothing right-wing in
it...
1. Remove France from NATO's integrated command.
2. End NATO's commitment to US directed global wars.
3. Reject the oligarch-dominated European Union and its austerity programs, which have enriched bankers and multi-national corporations.
4. Convoke a national referendum over the EU - to decide French submission.
5. End sanctions against Russia.
6. Increase trade with Rusia.
7. End France's intervention in Syria and establish ties with Iran and Palestine.
8. Adopt Keynesian demand-driven industrial revitalization as opposed to Emmanuel Macron's ultra-neoliberal supply-side agenda.
9. Raise taxes on banks and financial transactions
10. Penalise capital flight in order to continue funding France's retirement age of 62 for women and 65 for men.
11. Keep the 35 hour work-week.
12. Provid tax-free overtime pay.
13. Direct state intervention to prevent factories from relocating to low wage EU economies and firing French workers.
14. Increase public spending for childcare and for the poor and disabled.
15 Protect French farmers against subsidized, cheap imports.
16. Support abortion rights and gay rights.
17. Oppose the death penalty.
18. Cut taxes by 10% for low-wage workers.
19. Fight against sexism.
20. Fight for equal pay for women.
What makes it interesting is that it seems that the deluge of MSM hokum successfully discouraged the ppl who voted for Micron
from examining and/or evaluating it.
Somehow Macron is the smallest detail of what is going on. The old two major parties have imploded and the survivors are trying
to fight for life by joining the new big centrist Macron-EU lobby movement. Everyday is about a new betrayal, a new U-turn on
what has been signed or promessed by this or that party-member (Valls is the funniest to follow). The French politicians are and
have been a mafia, Corsican type, ever since the 30s (or maybe before already?). Macron won't have much support in the coming
parliament. Episode 2 is 18th June, results of the 2nd round of parliamentary election.
If a clarification happens as to who the people should oppose, anti-EU parties will have to unite and take the fight to Brussels
(which as always, includes sorting out the extreme-right xenophobes and anti-women rights), as Varoufakis already understood.
People here really don't understand how Le Pen functions. The way the MSM is dealing with her (differs from how it was played
with the father, this was Mitterrand's business) is that she is everywhere, in a positive light, on a daily basis, and suddenly
when an election happens, after she has been put up as credible etc they turn against her fascism at the last minute.
The reason she is used first is to make her bigger against the other candidates. It worked this time against Mélenchon,
who had initially better chances than her to win, and who might even have won against Macron (25 % abstention + 10 % blank votes
is still a big reserve for anyone). But the Mélenchon was hailed "same as Le Pen", "friend of Putin and Castro", "supporting Syrian
regime" etc.
As to the 'programme' of Le Pen. She changed her tone when Philippot, a former help of Chevènement (socialist anti-EU, has
quit the party but still very close to Hollande and Royal !) started to write her speeches. Through time, she simply borrowed
stuff from the leftist unions (CGT), from Mélenchon, so far thay everyone notice the "social left" overtones of her platform.
But when asked precisely, there is nothing behind it but catching new voters. The basis of her voters, those of her father,
are just very normal rightist liberal, with an open racist flavour, and the new mottoes are just to catch more people. Asked about
all the 'borrowings' made by the FN to the extreme-left Mélenchon said that reading a FN tract nowadays looked like it was a CGT
one, but that this did not cover that the fact they were just stealing it without any intention behind it.
The FN is ruling is a number of municipalities, they have 2 MP in the French parliament and 22 in the EUropean parliament.
Please let me know of any 'social left' measure they would have suggested or agreed for?
Under Mitterrand, the Socialists used the FN as the perfect tool to reduce the weight of the right party. After him, the MSM
understood it was the perfect tool to kill the marxists. ALL the media have kept saying "Mélenchon = Le Pen" in the latest months,
especially after Mélenchon had a surge in the voting intentions. The guy is not perfect and would probably not do a good president,
but his charism and pedagogical capacity made him get back some of the working class voters that had stopped voting for the Communists
to vote for Le Pen (after the Communists were involved too often in compromising deals with the very corrupt Socialist Party)
and he also managed to get some youth interested in politics again with his web platform and local organisations.
The illuminists are informing their serfs and their enemies that they are in complete control and that this populist revolt
stops now. It is in your face like Kushner's 666 fifth avenue building. The velvet glove is being removed from the steel fist.
Actually none of the above won 37% of the voters and Macron came in at 24% which is slightly above Le Pen at 21%. The rest
voted against Le Pen by voting for Macron.
This is one hell of a way to run an election and a country. The political divisions are terminal as in the US. The difference,
is that the French allow their leaders to run things until they get few up and than throw a tantrum. In this case the cobblestones
will fly and the transportation system will shut down.
Even the National police (CRS) assassins will not be able to hold the line. There must be a better way to elect leaders who
will add to the wealth of nations rather than the "Masters of the Universe".
It's fascinating. Everybody has his or her very personal idea of what 'globalism' means - yours is the third answer I get on
this forum, and the three are completely different!
What you refer to is 'globalization', which is a natural/ logical process in capitalist economy.
I thus get the impression that 'globalism' doesn't mean anything at all - which means it's a very bad idea to use it in any
debate. Or, you have to define very precisely how you use it before doing so.
@Hoarse 72
Maybe you should learn a bit more about European politics rather than believe in fairytales.
It's strange how some people are disappointed by empty talk over and over, yet all it takes is some politician declaring herself
'anti-establishment' and they'll believe every word she says. That way, of course they're f*ckd time and again... Sad! ;-)
(Look at Ukraine for a perfect example - they believed the nationalists' lies just like you do.)
@Julian 66: Yeah, sure. And even better, the spiders from Mars didn't win either. lol
Globalism does have different meanings ... and uses. It can mean globalism by culture as in travel, communications, foods,
celebrations, etc. It can also mean government level actions pushed by TPTBs like trade deals, border arrangements, regional combinations
(EU, NAFTA), economic/currency deals, supranational organizations (WTO, GATT, EU). The fun is when you complain about the latter,
you are smeared as being a xenophobe and against the former. Voluntary organization from below is one thing, forced from above
is a different matter.
Maybe you should learn a bit more about European politics rather than believe in fairytales.
It's strange how some people are disappointed by empty talk over and over, yet all it takes is some politician declaring herself
'anti-establishment' and they'll believe every word she says. That way, of course they're f*ckd time and again... Sad! ;-)
(Look at Ukraine for a perfect example - they believed the nationalists' lies just like you do.) ...
@smuks | May 9, 2017 7:18:36 AM | 78
Can't argue with your first sentence, but you should have quit while you were ahead. Conflating the violent Putch in Ukraine
with the stance of a France-for-the-French Nationalist is inane, to put it mildly. And as an Aussie, I can assure you that our
Neolib, Turnbull, Totalitarian Capitalist, pro-middleman-itis, industry-destroying Govt could teach the French Swamp a thing or
two about 'honeyed lies' and shameless betrayal by politicians - (whilst feathering their own ne$t$).
The selection, crowning of Macron represents the ultimate effort within the 5th Republic to elect a 'prez' who promises, can,
will be, effective. In what direction is not specified .mystery
Sarkozy was elected as a 'Républicain' (UMP then), an outsider nonetheless, a foreignor almost, a hyperactive, charismatic,
posturing dude who agitated ppl from the right, provided a flattering mirror for many, and displayed an aura of determined,
willful, 'renewal' while being 'conservative.' His wife Cecilia played a big part - another story.
Sark subsequently alienated swatches of the F who were becoming more impoverished, he almost destroyed the judiciary/ police/
repressive etc. organs in F (as he despised them personally) except prisons, that didn't go down well. Sure the 'Left' - aka local
plutocrats belonging to the Le Zuper Klub des Zocialistes trying to get a bigger slice of the economic pie.. facing their
now better entrenched competitors, went into valiant, sputtering, oppo.
Sark was the destruction of Lybia. Hollande was elected as a return to a 'normal' presidency, a-hmm reasonable, understanding,
benevolent, a tad leftist stance. Hollande instored by decree the El Khomri law, as an ex., measures that Sark did not dare attempt.
Hollande was militarily all over, not reported - see war in Mali for ex.
Macron embodies the 'not-left-not-right', the death to the creaky 'establishment' parties; a pragmatic 'renewal', a young brilliant
guy, very French, very heart-felt, etc. Leading to a sort of 'technocratic, unity government' hmmm.
The photoshopped image is funny. Good one. Hummvee, a.k.a. appeal to the reptilian brain. Does anyone know? I heard that Merkel
has a PhD in physics (PhD in alemania is like a masters degree in amerika). So the imagery is maybe not so far from truth.
What you describe is usually called 'globalization', which of course has cultural, economic, political etc. facets. Politics
is always 'forced from above' to some degree, whether on a local, national or global level.
@Hoarse 80
While there was no coup in France, the nationalist ideologies are the same: Pretending to further the 'people's interests'
to garner support, but in reality doing the oligarchs' bidding.
I most certainly don't support neoliberals like Turnbull, Macron or whoever, but with the nationalists you'd get 'the same
but more so', plus heightened conflicts between various groups in society, a.k.a. divide and rule. Look at history, and don't
be fooled (again).
Germans will be disappointed by Macron's election. The force that is driving two countries apart are far bigger than thousands
of macrons.
Here are two fascinating very recent headlines:
Juxtapose one against the other - and it's pretty clear that German strength is a mirror reflection of French weakness.
Because both countries share the same currency, the only way for France to recover is for Germany to become sick. Therein lie
the seeds of conflict. Far from invigorated partnership, one should expect gradual, yet unrelenting unraveling of Franco-German
relations. Frustrated Macron will prove Germany's worst nightmare. It simply can't be any other way.
It looks as though the south koreans will be much happier with
their new president
than the french will be with theirs. In france the next dates of note are 11 and 18 june, aren't they? all this talk of germany
... de gaulle's speech was on the 18th of june, wasn't it? is micron really petain in drag?
"... By Jayati Ghosh, Professor of Economics and Chairperson at the Centre for Economic Studies and Planning, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. This is Part 3 of a four-part article, published in the March/April 2017 special "Costs of Empire" issue of Dollars & Sense magazine. Parts 1, 2 and 3 are available here. here , and here , respectively. Cross posted from Triple Crisis ..."
America is getting richer every year. The American worker is not.
Far from it: On average, workers born in 1942 earned as much or more over their careers than
workers born in any year since, according to new research - and workers on the job today shouldn't
expect to catch up with their predecessors in their remaining years of employment .
While economists have been concerned about recent data on earnings, the new paper suggests
that ordinary Americans have been dealing with serious economic problems for much longer than
may be widely recognized.
The new paper includes some "astonishing numbers," said Gary Burtless, an economist at the
nonpartisan Brookings Institution who was not involved in the research. "The stagnation of living
standards began so much earlier than people think," he said
For instance, the typical 27-year-old man's annual earnings in 2013 were 31 percent less than
those of a typical 27-year-old man in 1969. The data suggest that today's young men are unlikely
to make up for that decline by earning more in the future.
By Jayati Ghosh, Professor of Economics and Chairperson at the Centre for Economic Studies
and Planning, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi. This is Part 3 of a four-part article, published
in the March/April
2017 special "Costs of Empire" issue of Dollars & Sense magazine. Parts 1, 2 and 3 are available
here.
here , and
here , respectively. Cross posted from
Triple Crisis
A recent report from the McKinsey Global Institute, "Poorer than Their Parents? Flat or falling
incomes in advanced economies" (July 2016) shows how the past decade has brought significantly worse
economic outcomes for many people in the developed world.
Falling Incomes
In 25 advanced economies, 65-70% of households (540-580 million people) "were in segments of the
income distribution whose real incomes were flat or had fallen" between 2005 and 2014. By contrast,
between 1993 and 2005, "less than 2 percent, or fewer than ten million people, experienced this phenomenon."
In Italy, a whopping 97% of the population had stagnant or declining market incomes between 2005
and 2014. The equivalent figures were 81% for the United States and 70% for the United Kingdom.
The worst affected were "young people with low educational attainment and women, single mothers
in particular." Today's younger generation in the advanced countries is "literally at risk of ending
up poorer than their parents," and in any case already faces much more insecure working conditions.
Shifting Income Shares
The McKinsey report noted that "from 1970 to 2014, with the exception of a spike during the 1973–74
oil crisis, the average wage share fell by 5 percentage points in the six countries studied in depth"
(United States, United Kingdom, France, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden); in the "most extreme
case, the United Kingdom, by 13 percentage points."
These declines occurred "despite rising productivity, suggesting a disconnect between productivity
and incomes." Productivity gains were either grabbed by employers or passed on in the form of lower
prices to maintain competitiveness.
Declining wage shares are widely seen as results of globalization and technological changes, but
state policies and institutional relations in the labor market matter. According to the McKinsey
report. "Swedish labor policies such as contracts that protect both wage rates and hours worked"
resulted in ordinary workers receiving a larger share of income.
Countries that have encouraged the growth of part-time and temporary contracts experienced bigger
declines in wage shares. According to European Union data, more than 40% of EU workers between 15
and 25 years have insecure and low-paying contracts. The proportion is more than half for the 18
countries in the Eurozone, 58% in France, and 65% in Spain.
The other side of the coin is the rising profit shares in many of these rich countries. In the
United States, for example, "after-tax profits of U.S. firms measured as a share of the national
income even exceeded the 10.1 percent level last reached in 1929."
Policy Matters
Government tax and transfer policies can change the final disposable income of households. Across
the 25 countries studied in the McKinsey report, only 20-25% of the population experienced flat or
falling disposable incomes. In the United States, government taxes and transfers turned a "decline
in market incomes for 81 percent of all income segments into an increase in disposable income for
nearly all households."
Government policies to intervene in labor markets also make a difference. In Sweden, the government
"intervened to preserve jobs, market incomes fell or were flat for only 20 percent, while disposable
income advanced for almost everyone."
In most of the countries examined in the study, government policies were not sufficient to prevent
stagnant or declining incomes for a significant proportion of the population.
Effects on Attitudes
The deteriorating material reality is reflected in popular perceptions. A 2015 survey of British,
French, and U.S. citizens confirmed this, as approximately 40% "felt that their economic positions
had deteriorated."
The people who felt worse-off, and those who did not expect the situation to improve for the next
generation, "expressed negative opinions about trade and immigration."
More than half of this group agreed with the statement, "The influx of foreign goods and services
is leading to domestic job losses." They were twice as likely as other respondents to agree with
the statement, "Legal immigrants are ruining the culture and cohesiveness in our society."
The survey also found that "those who were not advancing and not hopeful about the future" were,
in France, more likely to support political parties such as the far-right Front National and, in
Britain, to support Brexit.
Effects on Politics
Decades of neoliberal economic policies have hollowed out communities in depressed areas and eliminated
any attractive employment opportunities for youth. Ironically, in the United States this favored
the political rise of Donald Trump, who is himself emblematic of the plutocracy.
Similar tendencies are also clearly evident in Europe. Rising anti-EU sentiment has been wrongly
attributed only to policies allowing in more migrants. The hostile response to immigration is part
of a broader dissatisfaction related to the design and operation of the EU. For years now, it has
been clear that the EU has failed as an economic project. This stems from the very design of the
economic integration-flawed, for example, in the enforcement of monetary integration without banking
union or a fiscal federation that would have helped deal with imbalances between EU countries-as
well as from the particular neoliberal economic policies that it has forced its members to pursue.
This has been especially evident in the adoption of austerity policies across the member countries,
remarkably even among those that do not have large current-account or fiscal deficits. As a result,
growth in the EU has been sclerotic at best since 2004, and even the so-called "recovery" after 2012
has been barely noticeable. Even this lacklustre performance has been highly differentiated, with
Germany emerging as the clear winner from the formation of the Eurozone. Even large economies like
France, Italy, and Spain experienced deteriorating per capita incomes relative to Germany from 2009
onwards. This, combined with fears of German domination, probably added to the resentment of the
EU that is now being expressed in both right-wing and left-wing movements across Europe.
The union's misguided emphasis on neoliberal policies and fiscal austerity packages has also contributed
to the persistence of high rates of unemployment, which are higher than they were more than a decade
ago. The "new normal" therefore shows little improvement from the period just after the Great Recession-the
capitalist world economy may no longer be teetering on the edge of a cliff, but that is because it
has instead sunk into a mire.
It is sad but not entirely surprising that the globalization of the workforce has not created
a greater sense of international solidarity, but rather undermined it. Quite obviously, progressive
solutions cannot be found within the existing dominant economic paradigm. But reversions to past
ideals of socialism may not be all that effective either. Rather, this new situation requires new
and more relevant economic models of socialism to be developed, if they are to capture the popular
imagination.
Such models must transcend the traditional socialist paradigm's emphasis on centralized government
control over an undifferentiated mass of workers. They must incorporate more explicit emphasis on
the rights and concerns of women, ethnic minorities, tribal communities, and other marginalised groups,
as well as recognition of ecological constraints and the social necessity to respect nature. The
fundamental premises of the socialist project, however, remain as valid as ever: The unequal, exploitative
and oppressive nature of capitalism; the capacity of human beings to change society and thereby alter
their own futures; and the necessity of collective organisation to do so.
NOTE: Parts of this article appeared in "The Creation of the New Imperialism: The Institutional
Architecture," Monthly Review , July 2015.
While incomes in the developed world are flat, the outcomes globalization has imposed
on labour in the developing world are even more dire. Lets face it, the global south is
effectively a labour reserve pool that is used by trans-national corporations as a de facto
income growth suppresant in the global north. This dynamic is particurlarly pernicious for
global south workers because they enter labour markets at or near subsistence level wages,
with upward income mobility nearly impossible as ill informed developing country governments,
in their naive quest to create investor friendly environments, bargain away any protections
that could ensure said upward income mobility. Furthermore, these trans-national corporations
are running a globalized exploitation racket where developing nations are pitted against
one another in a race to see who can enslave their labour force more fervently in service
of global capital. This of course has the effect of, at best, depressing incomes in developed
economies, and at worst, completely eliminating large swathes of jobs in many developed
economy sectors
I'd offer that the corporate entities that pretty much rule us are more completely described
as post- and supra-national than simply transnational. Creatures birthed like Aliens that
ate their way out of the mothers that spawned them. Given life by legalisms born out of
nation-states and other grafters of "franchise" and "legitimacy," now ingesting and digesting
their parents and lesser siblings.
Also, that there's just too many people living off a declining carrying capacity of the
planet. And what is with the notion that we all have some kind or reasonable expectation
to be "richer" than our parents? Is that not part of the algo-rhythms that are killing us
mopes, wracked with dreams of sugarplum carboconsumption and hyped with fevered visions
of "innovation" and "progress" based on "disruption" and monetization? And thus willing
(on the part of those who are aware of the vague shape of the Bezzle and hope to gain from
it, against the well-being of our fellows) or are so oppressed and oblivious and Bernays-ized
not to see it at all.
Immunity, impunity, invulnerability, the hallmarks of the looters. "Upward income mobility"
except for the very few that by birth or other lucky happenstance can manipulate their way
into the self-feeding gyre of wealth accumulation and attendant power, is an awful example
of unobtainium dangled at the end of the carrot-stick
The article points to the elephant in the room when it closes with "as well as recognition
of ecological constraints and the social necessity to respect nature."
One can suggest that TPTB may recognize that climate change/ecological damage is quite
real and continuing apace.
They know they have a "denominator/divisor" problem with respect to a growing world wide
population and resource allocation.
TPTB are hoovering up all they can for their future use.
Austerity policies and encouragement of subsistence level wages delay the ecological
day of reckoning as WW consumption is lower as a consequence.
as Wolfgang Schäuble and many others have said, We can't all trade our way out of this
mess. If we carry that insight one step further it becomes, We can't all manufacture our
way out of this mess. The problem with trying to invent an inclusive economy is that we
don't know how to do so without industry and industry will soon end life on this planet.
If the oceans collapse, it's over. So instead of using a mild form of identity politics
and a new social contract for sharing the gains of capitalism/socialism we will have to
confine ourselves to making and using/recycling what we need and nothing more. No surplus.
No trade. No finance based on debt servicing. And in an overpopulated world that means no
labor policies as we once knew them. For lack of imagination we are looking at a New Communism.
What else?
From Yves: "On average, workers born in 1942 earned as much or more over their careers
than workers born in any year since, according to new research"
1942 makes Schumpeter come to mind. His book Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy is the
most celebrated Marxism's bashing to date. Schumpeter's reading of Marx or Marxism does
not qualify as unfair; his was a non-reading activity. Here is an excerpt from Schumpeter,
the visionary (my emphasis added)
"For the RELATIVE SHARE OF WAGES AND SALARIES IN TOTAL INCOME varies but little from year
to year and is remarkably constant over time-it certainly does not reveal any tendency to
fall"
"creative destruction" has seemed mostly about breaking then remaking a social order
that serves the "masters of mankind" not to mention, spinning the fodder that rationalizes
an endless war racket, by their sycophantic apologists
"David" makes David Harvey come to mind "Neo-liberalism and the restoration of class
power"
The new paper includes some "astonishing numbers," said Gary Burtless, an economist
at the nonpartisan Brookings Institution who was not involved in the research. "The stagnation
of living standards began so much earlier than people think,"
Who are these "people" to whom he refers? Some of us have known that since waaaaay before
these numbers came out.
I wonder whether living standards have suffered much more than is typically documented.
The stuff that we're forced to buy - housing, medical care, education - are all way up and,
I suspect, make up a much larger share of the inflation-measuring typical basket of household
goods.
And other items take a big and probably under-measured chunk of income as well. I've
lost track of how many cellphones I've had to buy over the past 10 years, even though I
hate them and try to keep my consumption of these toxic little marvels to a minimum (unfortunately,
I'm required to have a smartphone for work).
On the flip side, from an owners perspective, I was able to hire 36 people in 1983 on
a given business gross income and today I struggle to employ 2 on that same gross.
"... Warren, who first made the argument, was speaking out against the idea that calling for higher taxes on the rich constitutes class warfare, saying: There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own-nobody. You built a factory out there? Good for you. But I want to be clear. You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You were safe in your factory because of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn't have to worry that marauding bands would come and seize everything at your factory -- and hire someone to protect against this -- because of the work the rest of us did. ..."
"... This is a fundamentally Polanyian point about the embeddedness of markets in society, and the always unnatural nature of income distribution. Polanyian arguments arise pretty naturally as rebuttals to certain libertarian notions of how economies should work, which may be one reason that certain Democrats sometimes sound like Polanyi. ..."
"... But Polanyi also helps explains some of the tensions within the Democratic Party. One of the divides within the Democratic primary between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton has been between a social-democratic and a "progressive" but market-friendly vision of addressing social problems. Take, for example, health care. Sanders proposes a single-payer system in which the government pays and health care directly, and he frames it explicitly in the language of rights: "healthcare is a human right and should be guaranteed to all Americans regardless of wealth or income." ..."
"... Sanders here offers a straightforward defense of decommodification -- the idea that some things do not belong in the marketplace-that is at odds with the kind of politics that the leadership of the Democratic Party has offered more or less since Carter and the narrow policy "wonk" focus that tends to dominate coverage. ..."
"... Socialism is, essentially, the tendency inherent in an industrial civilization to transcend the self-regulating market by consciously subordinating it to a democratic society. It is the solution natural to industrial workers who see no reason why production should not be regulated directly and why markets should be more than a useful but subordinate trait in a free society. From the point of view of the community as a whole, socialism is merely the continuation of that endeavor to make society a distinctively human relationship of persons. ..."
"... Sanders's particular notion of a political revolution-in which people use democracy to change the rules governing our national political economy-is very Polanyian. Polanyi's socialism has a certain modern appeal when the more traditionally Marxist idea of having the state seize the means of production has been abandoned even by most who identify as socialists. Instead, Polanyi's relevance for today lies in his arguments that markets need to be subjected to democratic control, that human beings resist being transformed fully into commodities, and a fully realized market society is both impossible, undesirable, and at odds with genuine liberty and freedom. ..."
Not at all. Democrats have taken up Polanyian arguments in response to many of the market-fundamentalist
notions that the Tea Party has helped to circulate in recent years. The most notable example might
be President Obama and Elizabeth Warren's "you didn't build that" faux-controversy from 2011 and
2012. Warren, who first made the argument, was speaking out against the idea that calling
for higher taxes on the rich constitutes class warfare, saying:
There is nobody in this country who got rich on his own-nobody. You built a factory out there?
Good for you. But I want to be clear. You moved your goods to market on the roads the rest of
us paid for. You hired workers the rest of us paid to educate. You were safe in your factory because
of police forces and fire forces that the rest of us paid for. You didn't have to worry that marauding
bands would come and seize everything at your factory -- and hire someone to protect against this
-- because of the work the rest of us did.
This is a fundamentally Polanyian point about the embeddedness of markets in society, and
the always unnatural nature of income distribution. Polanyian arguments arise pretty naturally
as rebuttals to certain libertarian notions of how economies should work, which may be one reason
that certain Democrats sometimes sound like Polanyi.
But Polanyi also helps explains some of the tensions within the Democratic Party. One of
the divides within the Democratic primary between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton has been
between a social-democratic and a "progressive" but market-friendly vision of addressing social
problems. Take, for example, health care. Sanders proposes a single-payer system in which the
government pays and health care directly, and he frames it explicitly in the language of rights:
"healthcare is a human right and should be guaranteed to all Americans regardless of wealth or
income."
Clinton, meanwhile, describes affordable health care as a right. Clinton also wants higher
education to remain a market commodity, because she says that if the government paid, it would
needlessly be giving a free ride to the children of the wealthy and the upper-middle class. Clinton's
reasoning appeals to ideas of market efficiency, while Sanders, in stating that "Education should
be a right, not a privilege," appeals to ideas of community beyond markets.
Sanders here offers a straightforward defense of decommodification -- the idea that some
things do not belong in the marketplace-that is at odds with the kind of politics that the leadership
of the Democratic Party has offered more or less since Carter and the narrow policy "wonk" focus
that tends to dominate coverage.
Whether or not Sanders has read Polanyi-similar language about economic and social rights was
also present in FDR's New Deal, which Sanders argues is the basis of his brand of socialism-Polanyi's
particular definition of socialism sounds like one Sanders would share:
Socialism is, essentially, the tendency inherent in an industrial civilization to transcend
the self-regulating market by consciously subordinating it to a democratic society. It is the
solution natural to industrial workers who see no reason why production should not be regulated
directly and why markets should be more than a useful but subordinate trait in a free society.
From the point of view of the community as a whole, socialism is merely the continuation of that
endeavor to make society a distinctively human relationship of persons.
Sanders's particular notion of a political revolution-in which people use democracy to
change the rules governing our national political economy-is very Polanyian. Polanyi's socialism
has a certain modern appeal when the more traditionally Marxist idea of having the state seize
the means of production has been abandoned even by most who identify as socialists. Instead, Polanyi's
relevance for today lies in his arguments that markets need to be subjected to democratic control,
that human beings resist being transformed fully into commodities, and a fully realized market
society is both impossible, undesirable, and at odds with genuine liberty and freedom.
Sanders's campaign has shown that a political platform favoring decommodification and a retreat
from the extremes of society's subordination to markets has deep appeal. The future of the party
does not belong to Bernie Sanders himself, but the Karl Polanyi Democrats are here to stay.
This is the second in a series of projected posts that try to look at the Trump administration
and right wing populism through the lens of different books (the first – on civil society – is
here). The last post was mostly riffing on Ernest Gellner. Today, it's another middle-European
exile intellectual – Karl Polanyi.
"... We have more good cop/bad cop. We are supposed to forget that the DNC democrats gave us deregulation, killed Glass-Steagall, refused to prosecute banksters, gave us a hokey republican health insurance plan, tried to give us TPP, continued more ME wars, screw with Russia, etc. ..."
The Fed Borg has not done anything unexpected whether we are basing that on Krugman's expectations
or the expectations that you and I shared of her way back when she lead the Fed to liftoff. Now,
we might have had different hopes and maybe even Krugman as well had different hopes, but none
of us ever expected anything different than what the Fed actually did from then to now. We all
know that we have a bankers' Fed and not a people's Fed.
OTOH, Krugman had very different expectations about the 2016 POTUS election than what actually
happened in November. Krugman is just dealing with his disappointment in the best way that he
can. It at least creates the illusion that he is making a difference and perception is at least
90% of reality for intellectual elites.
We have more good cop/bad cop. We are supposed to forget that the DNC democrats gave us
deregulation, killed Glass-Steagall, refused to prosecute banksters, gave us a hokey republican
health insurance plan, tried to give us TPP, continued more ME wars, screw with Russia, etc.
The bad cop tells us he is going to have some guys beat us up and then he has some guys beat
us up. The good cop tells us he is going to take care of us and then he has some guys beat us
up.
Pelosi Refuses to Back Single Payer, Despite GOP Deathmongering Suddenly Taking Center Stage
"No, I don't," Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) promptly said, when asked by a reporter if she
thinks single payer should be in Democrats' 2018 party platform.
"I was carrying single payer signs probably around before you born, so I understand that aspiration,"
the House Minority Leader told Vice's Evan McMorris-Santoro. She then claimed that "the comfort
level with a broader base of the American people is not there yet," with single payer.
"So I say to people: if you want it, do it in your states. States are laboratories," the Dem
leader added. "States are a good place to start," she also said.
Pelosi's assertions about single payer's popularity, however, are called into question by public
polling.
Yes and you can cherry pick pools (that have deliberate or unintended flaws) such that you can
get one answer or the other. So you have to get consistency of pooling on an issue before you
even consider trusting them. The good news is that Pelosi does not write the Democratic platform,
the delegates do. If a majority of democratic party actives believe we are ready to include a
national health care plan in the platform, then it will become the dems policy and I will support
them. If they refuse to get it in there then we are not ready and I will support that position.
Or we could rescue the individuals with no exchange choices at all - by allowing them to buy into
MediCare. That way we would not need to "build" a public option (that could be attacked). We could
also claim to have given the private sector the opportunity - and only let the government step
in when private sector solutions fail. Most importantly the GOP would suddenly start doing everything
they could to help the exchanges rather than trying to sabotage them.
I understand that we spend much more on bombing brown people, but still uncontrolled expansion
of Medicare is somewhat problematic solution.
Simple question to you -- treatment of opiates epidemics victims -- who should pay for their
treatment and multiple conditions they already have? Normally private insurers avoid those people
as a plague.
Alaska model ( compensating private insurers for most complex and expensive cases -- outliers
in costs) also can work. On state level more in known about those people and some measures can
be legislated to cut the costs of most egregious cases connected with neoliberalism as a very
cruel social system.
For example, homeless people are periodically taken to the hospital and then released to the
streets to get in to hospital again and again until they die; some have dangerous for public infections
(such a tuberculosis).
Three more members of the House of Representatives have signed on as co-sponsors of HR 676,
the single payer bill in the House.
Carolyn Maloney (New York), Adriano Espaillat (New York) and Nanette Barragan (California)
- signed onto HR 676 yesterday, bringing the total number of co-sponsors to 72.
Who's talking about giving up? The Washington Generals always made it a good show against the
Harlem Globetrotters...and lost by design...kind of like corrupt, sclerotic Democrats...
"... The wreckage that you see every day as you tour this part of the country is the utterly predictable fruit of the Democratic party's neoliberal turn. Every time our liberal leaders signed off on some lousy trade deal, figuring that working-class people had "nowhere else to go," they were making what happened last November a little more likely. ..."
"... What we need is for the Democratic party and its media enablers to alter course. It's not enough to hear people's voices and feel their pain; the party actually needs to change. They need to understand that the enlightened Davos ideology they have embraced over the years has done material harm to millions of their own former constituents. The Democrats need to offer something different next time. And then they need to deliver. ..."
"... Andrew Bacevich offers 24 things that the media and their very knowledgeable talking heads could be talking about instead of obsessing about Trump 24/7: ..."
"... Our courtier press is worse than useless. The days of Walter Cronkite are but a distant memory. ..."
Vinyl records are back in vogue...apparently broken records are back, too, as Krugman reminds
us in virtually every one of his columns these days.
What Krugman could be writing about: "Another thing that is inexcusable from Democrats: surprise
at the economic disasters that have befallen the midwestern cities and states that they used to
represent.
The wreckage that you see every day as you tour this part of the country is the utterly
predictable fruit of the Democratic party's neoliberal turn. Every time our liberal leaders signed
off on some lousy trade deal, figuring that working-class people had "nowhere else to go," they
were making what happened last November a little more likely.
Every time our liberal leaders deregulated banks and then turned around and told working-class
people that their misfortunes were all attributable to their poor education was a lot of student
loans and the right sort of college degree ... every time they did this they made the disaster
a little more inevitable.
Pretending to rediscover the exotic, newly red states of the Midwest, in the manner of the
New York Times, is not the answer to this problem. Listening to the voices of the good people
of Ohio, Wisconsin, and Michigan is not really the answer, either. Cursing those bad people for
the stupid way they voted is an even lousier idea.
What we need is for the Democratic party and its media enablers to alter course. It's not
enough to hear people's voices and feel their pain; the party actually needs to change. They need
to understand that the enlightened Davos ideology they have embraced over the years has done material
harm to millions of their own former constituents. The Democrats need to offer something different
next time. And then they need to deliver. "
"Andrew Bacevich offers 24 things that the media and their very knowledgeable talking heads
could be talking about instead of obsessing about Trump 24/7:"
"But hiring another prominent writer whose ideology hems close to that of the nation's elites
- in this case, fossil fuel corporations who are polluting the world and advocates of Western
military might - is hardly adding intellectual diversity to the pages of the Times."
So, the liberal elites are the Appalachian coal miners?
Trump won because he appealed to the NY Times elites?
"It could change that by hiring some of his prominent backers: philosopher Cornel West, Jacobin
editor Bhaskar Sunkara, civil rights scholar Michelle Alexander, labor organizer Jonathan Tasini,
and former Nevada Assemblywoman and organizer Lucy Flores could all make strong additions."
These people are effective because they have convinced voters to elect socialists across the
US, just like Bernie, easily defeating the right-wingers the NY Times has attacked, like Cruz,
Perry, Trump, et al?
"The Times could fix this by hiring some of the more thoughtful Trump backers, or at least
writers who have documented his appeal. For instance, there is Dilbert creator Scott Adams, who
admires Trump's powers of persuasion and correctly predicted that he would be elected."
So, if one admires the Chinese leadership for their economic policies of spreading the wealth
by creating hundreds of millions of jobs paying high wages (for China) paid for with high taxes
and high prices (for China), does that mean you want to live under Chinese rule?
I admire the Chinese authoritarians for embracing Keynes and FDR and Galbraith, something you
give lip service to, but actually oppose in policy.
You are just as free lunch as Cato and Heritage and AEI and the Kochs, just picking different
winners from unsustainable explosion of debt.
BTW, I like Bacevich, except he argues that Obama had as much power as the Chinese authoritarians,
and the Congress, the people, the Constitution are irrelevant.
He argued that Obama had the power to ignore all the laws passed by Congress, and had the power
to ignore all the voters, because Obama's problem was failing to do what the small number of elites
wanted, elites who can't get any one elected in even the liberal elite enclaves.
"The Times could break real ground by hiring talented millennial writers like the Washington
Post's Elizabeth Bruenig or Demos's Sean McElwee. The Times could also go even younger, including
the voices of Americans who are rarely heard: high-schoolers."
Hmm, so WaPo is now in touch with the masses?
What about NPR and PBS which has programs to train and give recording equipment to to kids
so they can do reporting, and then get their stories aired? Are public broadcasting really dominating
youth markets?
As a liberal, I automatically seek to falsify claims by anyone regardless of policy position.
I'm a Keynesian in the Galbraith mode, but I will criticize Keynesian arguments just like conservative
figured out how to do, but in reducio absurdim to illustrate the weak argument by the Keynesian
and logical fallacy of the conservative critique.
"They could hire, for instance, leading climatologist James Hansen or environmental lawyer
Erin Brockovich."
Again, to people who utterly failed to get anyone elected, local, State, or Federal, to get
anything done.
Hansen has been a disaster in that he helped speed Trump into the White House by being a Don
Quinto talking at oil pipelines, by inspiring tens of thousands of young people to drive gas guzzlers
to anti oil pipeline protests.
Hey, Hansen and Bernie promise the free lunch of no oil and gas wells and pipelines, but plenty
of cheap gasoline for cars and trucks and SUVs and cheap heating for homes.
The Ministry of Truth-Minitrue, in Newspeak [Newspeak was the official language of Oceania.
For an account of its structure and etymology see Appendix. * ]-was startlingly different from
any other object in sight. It was an enormous pyramidal structure of glittering white concrete,
soaring up, terrace after terrace, 300 metres into the air. From where Winston Smith stood it
was just possible to read, picked out on its white face in elegant lettering, the three slogans
of the Party:
The Ministry of Truth contained, it was said, three thousand rooms above ground level, and
corresponding ramifications below. Scattered about London there were just three other buildings
of similar appearance and size. So completely did they dwarf the surrounding architecture that
from the roof of Victory Mansions you could see all four of them simultaneously. They were the
homes of the four Ministries between which the entire apparatus of government was divided. The
Ministry of Truth, which concerned itself with news, entertainment, education, and the fine arts.
The Ministry of Peace, which concerned itself with war. The Ministry of Love, which maintained
law and order. And the Ministry of Plenty, which was responsible for economic affairs. Their names,
in Newspeak: Minitrue, Minipax, Miniluv, and Miniplenty....
The Ministry of Truth - Minitrue, in Newspeak [Newspeak was the official language of Oceania.
For an account of its structure and etymology see Appendix. * ]- was startlingly different from
any other object in sight. It was an enormous pyramidal structure of glittering white concrete,
soaring up, terrace after terrace, 300 metres into the air. From where Winston stood it was just
possible to read, picked out on its white face in elegant lettering, the three slogans of the
Party:
"... In just the past month, the Valley has seemed like it's happily living in some sort of sadomasochistic bubble worthy of a bad Hollywood satire. ..."
It has been said that Silicon Valley, or the 50 or so square-mile area extending from San Francisco
to the base of the peninsula, has overseen the creation of more wealth than any place in the history
of mankind. It's made people richer than the oil industry; it has created more money than the Gold
Rush. Silicon chips, lines of code, and rectangular screens have even minted more wealth than religious
wars.
Wealthy societies, indeed, have their own complicated incentive structures and mores. But they
do often tend, as any technological entrepreneur will be quick to remind you, to distribute value
across numerous income levels, in a scaled capacity. The Ford line, for instance, may have eventually
minted some serious millionaires in Detroit, but it also made transportation cheaper, helped drive
down prices on countless consumer goods, and facilitated new trade routes and commercial opportunities.
Smartphones, or any number of inventive modern apps or other software products, are no different.
Sure, they throw off a lot of money to the geniuses who came up with them, and the people who got
in at the ground floor. But they also make possible innumerable other opportunities, financial and
otherwise, for their millions of consumers.
Silicon Valley is, in its own right, a dynasty. Instead of warriors or military heroes, it has
nerds and people in half-zip sweaters. But it is becoming increasingly likely that the Valley might
go down in history not only for its wealth, but also for creating more tone deaf people than any
other ecosystem in the history of the world.
In just the past month, the Valley has seemed like it's happily living in some sort of sadomasochistic
bubble worthy of a bad Hollywood satire. Uber has endured a slate of scandals that would have
seriously wounded a less culturally popular company (or a public one, for that matter). There was
one former employee's allegation of
sexual harassment (which the company reportedly investigated); a report of
driver manipulation ; an unpleasant video depicting C.E.O. Travis Kalanick furiously berating
an Uber driver; a story about secret software that could
subvert regulators ; a report of
cocaine use and groping at holiday parties (an offending manager was fired within hours of the
scandal); a lawsuit for potentially buying
stolen software from a competitor;
more
groping ; a slew of
corporate exits ; and a
driverless car
crash . (The shit will really hit the fan if it turns out that Uber's self-driving technology
was
misappropriated from Alphabet's Waymo; Uber has called the lawsuit "baseless.")
Then there was Facebook, which held its developer conference while the Facebook Killer was on
the loose. As Mat Honan of BuzzFeed
put it so eloquently: "People used to talk about
Steve Jobs
and Apple's
reality distortion field . But Facebook, it sometimes feels, exists in a reality hole. The company
doesn't distort reality-but it often seems to lack the ability to recognize it."
And we ended the week with the ultimate tone-deaf statement from the C.E.O. of Juicero, the maker
of a
$700 dollar-soon-reduced-to-$400 dollar juicer that has $120 million in venture backing. After
Bloomberg News discovered that you didn't even need the $700-$400 juicer to make juice (there are,
apparently, these
things called hands ) the company's chief executive, Jeff Dunn , offered a
response
on Medium insinuating that he gets up every day to make the world a better place.
Of course, not everyone who makes the pilgrimage out West is, or becomes, a jerk. Some people
arrive in the Valley with a philosophy of how to act as an adult. But here's the problem with that
group: most of them don't vociferously articulate how unsettled they are by the bad actors. Even
when journalists manage to cover these atrocious activities, the powers of Silicon Valley try to
ridicule them, often in public. Take, for example, the 2015 TechCrunch Disrupt conference, when a
reporter asked billionaire investor Vinod Kholsa -who evidently believes that
public beaches should belong to rich people -about some of the ethical controversy surrounding
the mayonnaise-disruption startup Hampton Creek (I can't believe I just wrote the words "mayonnaise-disruption").
Khosla responded with a
trite and
rude retort that the company was fine. When the reporter pressed Khosla, he shut him down by
saying, "I know a lot more about how they're doing, excuse me, than you do." A year later and the
Justice Department opened a criminal investigation into whether the company
defrauded
investors when employees secretly purchased the company's own mayonnaise from grocery stores
. (The Justice Department has since dropped its investigation.)
When you zoom out of that 50-square-mile area of Silicon Valley, it becomes obvious that big businesses
can get shamed into doing the right thing. When it was discovered that Volkswagen lied about emissions
outputs, the company's C.E.O.
was forced to resign . The same was true for
the chief of Wells Fargo , who was embroiled in a financial scandal. In the wake of it's recent
public scandal, United recently
knocked its C.E.O. down a peg . Even Fox News, one of the most bizarrely unrepentant media outlet
in America, pushed out
two of the most important people at the network over allegations of sexual harassment. ( Bill
O'Reilly has said that claims against him are "unfounded"; Roger Ailes has vociferously denied allegations
of sexual harassment.) Even Wall Street can (sometimes) be forced to be more ethical. Yet Elizabeth
Holmes is still C.E.O. of Theranos.
Travis
Kalanick is still going to make billions of dollars as the chief of Uber when the company eventually
goes public.
The list
goes on and on .
In many respects, this is simply the D.N.A. of Silicon Valley. The tech bubble of the mid-90s
was inflated by lies that sent the NASDAQ on a
vertiginous downward spike that eviscerated the life savings of thousands of retirees and Americans
who believed in the hype. This time around, it seems that some of these business may be real, but
the people running them are still as tone deaf regarding how their actions affect other people. Silicon
Valley has indeed created some amazing things. One can only hope these people don't erase it with
their hubris.
E-commerce start-up Fab was once valued at $900 million, a near unicorn in Silicon Valley terms.
But after allegedly burning through $200 million of its $336 million in venture capital, C.E.O. Jason
Goldberg was forced to shutter its European arm and lay off two-thirds of its staff.
Fired in 2014 from his ad-tech firm RadiumOne following a domestic-violence conviction, Gurbaksh
Chahal founded a new company to compete with the one he was kicked out of. But Gravity4, his new
firm, was sued for gender discrimination in 2015, though that case is still pending, and former employees
have contemplated legal action against him.
Matt Stoller is a fellow at the Open Markets Program at New America.
Silicon Valley is the story of overthrowing entrenched interests through innovation. Children
dream of becoming inventors, and scientists come to Silicon Valley from all over the world. But something
is wrong when Juicero and Theranos are in the headlines, and bad behavior from Uber executives overshadows
actual innovation.
$120 million in venture funding from Google Ventures and Kleiner Perkins, for a juicer? And the
founder, Doug Evans, calling himself himself Steve Jobs "in his pursuit of juicing perfection?" And
how is Theranos's Elizabeth Holmes walking around freely?
Eventually, the rhetoric of innovation turns into .... a Google-backed punchline.
These stories are embarrassing, yes. But there's something deeper going on here. Silicon Valley,
an international treasure that birthed the technology of our age, is being destroyed.
Monopolies are now so powerful that they dictate the roll-out of new technology, and the only
things left to invest in are the scraps that fall off the table.
Sometimes those scraps are Snapchat, which managed to keep alive, despite what Ben Thompson calls
'
theft ' by Facebook.
Sometimes it's Diapers.com , which was destroyed
and bought out by Amazon through predatory pricing. And sometimes it's Juicero and Theranos.
It's not that Juicero and Theranos that are the problem. Mistakes - even really big, stupid ones
- happen.
"... That's when Wing-Heier and other Alaska officials had an idea. The state already had a tax on insurance plans (not just health but also life and property insurance). Usually the money goes to a general Alaska budget fund, but the state decided to divert $55 million of the tax revenue into a reinsurance program. ..."
"... The new reinsurance program convinced Premera to only raise rates 7 percent in 2017. Alaska suddenly went from having one of the highest rate increases in the nation to one of the lowest. ..."
"... This didn't just save customers money. The federal government subsidizes premium costs for 86 percent of Alaska's Obamacare enrollees. With cheaper premiums, the federal government didn't have to spend as much money. The cost of these subsidies fell by $56 million when Alaska created the reinsurance fund. ..."
"... If the waiver does go through - and Wing-Heier says she is "confident" the Trump administration will approve it - Alaska expects that Obamacare rates might actually do something unheard of in 2018: They might decrease. The state estimates that an additional 1,650 people will join the marketplace due to the lower premiums. ..."
"Last year, Alaska's Obamacare marketplaces seemed on the verge of implosion. Premiums for
individual health insurance plans were set to rise 42 percent. State officials worried that they
were on the verge of a "death spiral," where only the sickest people buy coverage and cause rates
to skyrocket year after year.
So the state tried something new and different - and it worked. Lori Wing-Heier, Alaska's insurance
commissioner, put together a plan that had the state pay back insurers for especially high medical
claims submitted to Obamacare plans. This lowered premiums for everyone. In the end, the premium
increase was a mere 7 percent.
"We knew we were facing a death spiral," says Wing-Heier. "We knew even though it was a federal
law, we had to do something."
Now other states are interested in trying Alaska's idea, especially because Wing-Heier is working
with the Trump administration to have the federal government, not the state, cover those costs.
There are rampant concerns about the future of Obamacare right now. We don't know whether its
marketplaces will remain stable in 2018 or, as the president has predicted, explode as premiums
rise and insurers drop out. But Alaska's experiment is a reminder that the future of Obamacare
isn't entirely up to Republicans in Washington. The work happening 3,000 miles away in Alaska
shows that states have the ability to fix Obamacare too - and that the Trump administration might
even support those policies.
How Alaska prevented an Obamacare horror story - and is trying to make the federal government
pay for it
Premiums in the individual market went up a lot last year. The national average was a 25 percent
hike. Alaska was bracing for an even higher 42 percent increase from its one remaining Obamacare
insurer, Premera Blue Cross.
That's when Wing-Heier and other Alaska officials had an idea. The state already had a
tax on insurance plans (not just health but also life and property insurance). Usually the money
goes to a general Alaska budget fund, but the state decided to divert $55 million of the tax revenue
into a reinsurance program.
This would give Obamacare insurers - at this point, just Premera - extra money if they had
some especially large medical claims. Reinsurance essentially backstops insurers' losses; it guarantees
they won't be on the hook for the bills of a handful of exceptionally sick patients.
The new reinsurance program convinced Premera to only raise rates 7 percent in 2017. Alaska
suddenly went from having one of the highest rate increases in the nation to one of the lowest.
This didn't just save customers money. The federal government subsidizes premium costs
for 86 percent of Alaska's Obamacare enrollees. With cheaper premiums, the federal government
didn't have to spend as much money. The cost of these subsidies fell by $56 million when Alaska
created the reinsurance fund.
This got Wing-Heier thinking: Why shouldn't we get that money back?
"Why shouldn't the money come back to us to fund the reinsurance program?" she recalls thinking.
"It was that simple."
Alaska applied for a waiver in late December, asking the federal government to refund its spending.
The state got conditional approval in mid-January from former Health and Human Services Secretary
Sylvia Mathews Burwell. Current HHS Secretary Tom Price has spoken favorably of the Alaska approach
too.
In a letter last month to governors, he described their idea as an example for other states
to follow. It was, he said, an "opportunity for states to lower premiums for consumers, improve
market stability, and increase consumer choice."
Alaska officials say the Trump administration has so far been easy to work with, helping them
make sure the application looks right and moves quickly toward review.
If the waiver does go through - and Wing-Heier says she is "confident" the Trump administration
will approve it - Alaska expects that Obamacare rates might actually do something unheard of in
2018: They might decrease. The state estimates that an additional 1,650 people will join the marketplace
due to the lower premiums.
Other states want to get that same kind of funding too
Alaska's marketplace is far from perfect. The state only has one insurance plan selling coverage
on its Obamacare marketplace, and doesn't project any more to join in 2018. Premiums are high
in Alaska; the state is large and rural, which means it can be expensive to get patients to a
hospital or a specialty doctor. A midlevel plan on the Obamacare marketplace there cost, on average,
$904 in 2017.
But even with those problems, Wing-Heier says, it's still a whole lot better than where the
state would have been without this policy change.
"Do I think it's a perfect solution? No, but it works for us," she says. "It's working in the
right direction. It did what it was intended. It brought stability to our market, and the waiver
is going to bring funding to us."
Alaska's approach has inspired other states. Minnesota is looking into building a reinsurance
fund. At the insurance conference I went to last weekend, regulators from New York were asking
lots of questions about Alaska's approach.
It's easy to see why this is appealing to other states, given the combination of additional
federal money and lower Obamacare premiums. Most interesting, though, is that Alaska's approach
is something the Trump and Obama administrations apparently agree on. There aren't many examples
of that right now - so the ones that exist are certainly worth watching."
Strange for Kliff not to mention in her piece the effects of the GOP destruction of the risk corridor
program on premiums, amount of insurance companies participating, and co-ops.
Alaska's actions are why the risk corridor program was in the ACA.
"The risk corridors were intended to help some insurance companies if they ended up with too
many new sick people on their rolls and too little cash from premiums to cover their medical bills
in the first three years under the health law. But because of Mr. Rubio's efforts, the administration
says it will pay only 13 percent of what insurance companies were expecting to receive this year.
The payments were supposed to help insurers cope with the risks they assumed when they decided
to participate in the law's new insurance marketplaces.
Mr. Rubio's talking point is bumper-sticker ready. The payments, he says, are "a taxpayer-funded
bailout for insurance companies." But without them, insurers say, many consumers will face higher
premiums and may have to scramble for other coverage. Already, some insurers have shut down over
the unexpected shortfall.
"Risk corridors have become a political football," said Dawn H. Bonder, the president and chief
executive of Health Republic of Oregon, an insurance co-op that announced in October it would
close its doors after learning that it would receive only $995,000 of the $7.9 million it had
expected from the government. "We were stable, had a growing membership and could have been successful
if we had received those payments. We relied on the payments in pricing our plans, but the government
reneged on its promise. I am disgusted."
Blue Cross and Blue Shield executives have warned the administration and Congress that eliminating
the federal payments could have a devastating impact on insurance markets.
Twelve of the 23 nonprofit insurance cooperatives created under the law have failed, disrupting
coverage for more than 700,000 people, and co-op executives like Ms. Bonder have angrily cited
the sharp reduction in federal payments as a factor in their demise."
Not so strange imo b/c Rubio's undermining of the Obamacare subsidies happened years ago and the
Alaska Obamacare subsidies are today and forward looking not back looking.
To a point, but what happened this year in Alaska would not have happened if the risk corridors
were not unfunded.
Moving forward, once the insurance companies had a realistic basis for the respective markets,
they would stabilize. That was the plan at the very beginning.
Everyone knew that new markets would be incredibly risky for insurance companies. But that
given a couple of years, they would figure out the price levels. They also knew that the first
year or two would be really rough, as people who had gone without insurance put off healthcare
for decades.
According to the CBO (who has been pretty accurate throughout) premiums are stabilizing. If
Rubio and the GOP's attack had not happened, Alaska would not have to have done this.
Course, no one can figure out what other attacks will happen, but if they stopped with the
risk corridors Alaska will have no need to do such in the future.
I will not bet that the GOP will not make it even worse, so they can just say the ACA collapsed
upon itself.
Agreed but the point is that the Obamacare Risk Corridors did not work as hoped but this Alaska
workaround appears to be working in its place.
I am sure you and I don't care how we get there as long as we get there, saving Obamacare for
30,000,000 Americans.
I don't trust Trump or the Conservative Tea Baggers in Congress either. If they can they will
pull defeat from the jaws of victory and call themselves saviors.
They are not nice or caring or smart, just ideologues without a clue to what they are doing.
TLDR: The fedgov pays a significant part of this reinsurance scheme. (According to the article
funds that come out of "saved" premium subsidies? - not clear.)
But one can argue this is how it is supposed to work. It doesn't really matter at what "level"
the subsidizing happens.
Should there be 'bare counties' (no insurance
plans offered) under ObamaCare in the coming
year it *might* be possible that a Medicaid
Buy-in plan would be offered.
NYT: Katherine Hempstead, who studies health insurance markets at the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation,
was more confident than former Obama administration officials that a motivated executive branch
could devise new policies to help people in bare counties, such as letting them buy a Medicaid
plan, or including them in the state employee benefit pool. "I do think there will be solutions,"
she said. ...
Bare Market: What Happens if Places Have No
Obamacare Insurers? https://nyti.ms/2pxTTEY
via @UpshotNYT - Margot Sanger-Katz - APRIL 18
Some interesting notes about difficulty of comparing GDP of various countries, in this case the
USA and Russia.
Notable quotes:
"... Russia's overall GDP PPP places it slightly below Germany - 6th place in the world ..."
"... But the US GDP is of an different structure. Compared it is overblown with pure financial sales and "hedonistic adjustments". More is blown by the culture. In the US much more everyday things relies on money. In case of case they are all worth nothing. Furthermore, if it comes to conflicts than the whole US Infrastructure has to be "revalued", and i doubt that it can withheld some stress tests. ..."
"... Over the years, the Pentagon encouraged Congress to move parts of national security spending out of its budget to the extent that almost half is found outside the DOD. The USA really spends over a trillion dollars a year. For example, nuclear weapons research, testing, procurement, and maintenance is found in the Dept of Energy budget. ..."
"... [AKA "SmoothieX12"] ..."
"... No serious analyst takes US GDP as 18 trillion dollars seriously. A huge part of it is a creative bookkeeping and most of it is financial and service sector. ..."
"... In general, overall power of the state (nation) is not only in its "economic" indices. I use Barnett's definition of national power constantly, remarkably Lavrov's recent speech in the General Staff Academy uses virtually identical definition. ..."
Russia spent almost 5.4% of GDP on military spending. The US last year spent 3.3% and with Trump's
proposed increase this number will increase by a few decimal points.
Russia is a middle income country while the US is a rich country, in the top 10 of GDP per
capita. If oil prices don't substantially improve and Russia continues to spend the way it does
on the military it will simply go broke.
Goods and services in Russia are considerably less expensive than in the West (and this includes
the cost of producing fighter jets or rockets), so for such purposes GDP PPP is a better indicator
than is nominal GDP. In terms of GDP PPP, Russia is of course not on par with the United States
but is considerably higher than Mexico. It is in the same neighborhood as places such as Hungary.
Russia's overall GDP PPP places it slightly below Germany - 6th place in the world
:
Russia is a middle income country while the US is a rich country, in the top 10 of GDP per
capita.
But the US GDP is of an different structure. Compared it is overblown with pure financial
sales and "hedonistic adjustments". More is blown by the culture. In the US much more everyday
things relies on money. In case of case they are all worth nothing. Furthermore, if it comes to
conflicts than the whole US Infrastructure has to be "revalued", and i doubt that it can withheld
some stress tests.
If oil prices don't substantially improve and Russia continues to spend the way it does
on the military it will simply go broke
No country that relies on oil ( Russia do not) has made substantial improvements. Normally
they are problem states where the problems made by oil are solved by money.
So from my point of view the opposite is true. Russia has made the big mistake to open itself
to the west and was bitten. Now they readjust (with a border to china). Thank's to the US Oligarchs
which thrown away that chance for they're primitive Neanderthal tribe thinking.
Over the years, the Pentagon encouraged Congress to move parts of national security spending
out of its budget to the extent that almost half is found outside the DOD. The USA really spends
over a trillion dollars a year. For example, nuclear weapons research, testing, procurement, and
maintenance is found in the Dept of Energy budget.
And as others have noted, GDP is a measure of activity, not prosperity. For example, mortgage
refinancing creates lots of GDP, but no real wealth. Hurricanes and arson are good for GDP too!
Stupid beyond belief. Countries can't go broke doing something, if they control the natural and
human resources they need to accomplish it. In addition, you apparently did not read Smoothie's
explanation of why just comparing the sums spent is silly.
"Russia is a middle income country while the US is a rich country, in the top 10 of GDP per
capita." this is very funny, how about the 20 trillions of US national debt and it is skyrocketing
fast? If you only count asset without counting liability US maybe in the top 10 GDP per capita,
but if you count net asset the US is in the negative GDP per capita, a broke nation. Perhaps it
is American Exceptionalism logic, claiming credit where credit is not due, living in a world detached
from reality.
"If oil prices don't substantially improve and Russia continues to spend the way it does
on the military it will simply go broke." this is even funnier, Russian does not use USD in
Russia, nor Russian government pay its MIC in USD, meanwhile Russian Central Bank can print Ruble
thru the thin air just like the Fed, why does oil price have any relationship with Russian internal
spending? Another example of "completely triumphalist and detached from Russia's economic realities"
which is defined by meaningless Wall Street economic indices and snakeoil economic theories and
rhetoric taught in the western universities.
P.S. No serious analyst takes US GDP as 18 trillion dollars seriously. A huge part of it
is a creative bookkeeping and most of it is financial and service sector. Out of very few
good things Vitaly Shlykov left after himself was his "The General Staff And Economics", which
addressed the issue of actual US military-industrial potential.
Then come strategic, operational and technological dimensions. You want to see operational
dimension -- look no further than Mosul which is still, after 6 months, being "liberated". Comparisons
to Aleppo are not only warranted but irresistible.
In general, overall power of the state (nation) is not only in its "economic" indices.
I use Barnett's definition of national power constantly, remarkably Lavrov's recent speech in
the General Staff Academy uses virtually identical definition.
Perhaps this report raises the possibility that this low
pressure low growth economy may actually lead to a new
high in the prime working age cohort, still with little
wage growth.
Boomers are retiring and that increases employment in
prime age (25-54) cohort. So to take only prime age is a
little bit disingenuous. This effect needs to be taken
into consideration.
Those who were born before 1950 were probably the most
numerous. They all will be over 67 at the end of the year.
Low interest rates and communication? Really? those are the
problems that haunt these clueless academics?
High asset prices should be and are the biggest problem.
Corporate bonds and equities are valued very high and
corporate indebtedness is very high. Toxic combination
waiting to unravel (just like high house prices that
supported record housing debt). It is coming. Just when
academics like Bernanke/Yellen think they have fixed
everything by pumping up asset prices.
"Low interest rates are their main concern, as
you can see in the figure below. Returns on central banks'
international reserves are low, and in some cases even turned
negative. Reserve managers are struggling to find sources of
income without taking unacceptable risks. Before the global
financial crisis, even safe and liquid assets-such as
government bonds-enabled generally good returns, and the
three pillars underlying the investment objective could be
relatively easily achieved. This is no longer the case."
Which seems like it reflects a misplaced institutional
imperative. They're thinking like a business when in reality
they should be enabling growth and other kinds of welfare
within their countries. Just how does a central bank actually
get into trouble if it works for workers and business instead
of foreign exchange speculators?
Well the central bank still needs a source of financing.
Being dependent on the treasury might be a threat to its
independence.
Of the course the point is that treating the
inflation target as a ceiling has got into this mess. Time to
generate some inflation and in that the various central banks
need to co-ordinate, not just with each other, but with
fiscal authorities as well.
P.S. Of course NGDP targeting is also a good idea.
I for one would like to see a public debate on the kind of
fed dependence we want. Today it appears to be attached to
the interests of those who live by a net interest margin.
Perhaps they should be attached to elected representatives.
Perhaps to what remains of Main Street enterprise. Or perhaps
to the interest of home health care workers and related
personal service people.
Are their profits excessive? If so then it might have to do
with anti-trust and a lack of competition.
I also think it has to do with a lack of demand. If there
was more demand there would be more recycling of profits into
investment and hiring and higher wages as corporations expand
production.
That's on the Fed and central banks (and fiscal policy)
BINY is exactly wrong.
If the Fed didn't raise rates and did more QE - didn't
ration credit/demand - businesses would be forced to invest
more to compete for market share.
And they're not borrowing to invest, they're borrowing to
dodge taxes as you say.
Corporate aims are inevitably sociopathic at key moments
The contradiction between corporate aims and social welfare
is ineluctable
Social democracy in the 30 - 60's
was an attempt to cushion society from the welfare
depredations
Of its corporations
The struggle to constrain corporations by progressive
liberals
having failed abysmally by 1930
The liberals joined de facto social democrats in a new wave
of regulations
Imposed on financial corporations
The financial corporate liberation movement busted out of
these regulations
By 2000
And in less then7 years brought the whole global system down
"A cycle of regulation deregulation and re regulation is a
grim prospect"
I agree that it will take populist social
movements to break the cycle. Will it be revolution or
serious reforms ... or nothing? Who knows.
In order to be successful they need to be based on class
and for the job class. See Chris Dillow on the Bad Keynes
from the other day. Reregulation is just the technocratic
center-left.
Until the day of the revolution (he writes
half-sarcstically) we have to push reforms and sketch out
what is desirable. Like Bernie Sanders.
To me that means demands from the social movement - which
kicks up leaders and experts and democratic technocrats - for
a high demand "hot" economy.
BINY writes:
"High corporate debt is primarily a response to ZIRP and
QE."
Not correct. Social movements should be pushing the Fed to
not raise rates and for MORE QE. Journalists and politicians
should be heckling the Fed constantly.
Who cares if the Fed and Supreme Court are anti-democratic
creations?
That's an interesting observation. See also the notion of
"high functioning sociopath" below
Sociopath: a person with
a psychopathic personality whose behavior is antisocial,
often criminal, and who lacks a sense of moral responsibility
or social conscience.
Various hallmark sociopath traits are listed below. It is
important to note that not all traits will be present in all
the "sociopaths".
According to ICD-10 criteria, presence of 3 or more of the
following qualifies for the diagnosis of antisocial
personality disorder (~sociopathy):
1.Callous unconcern for the feelings of others.
2.Gross and persistent attitude of irresponsibility and
disregard for social norms, and obligations.
3.Incapacity to maintain enduring relationships, though
having no difficulty in establishing them.
4.Very low tolerance to frustration, a low threshold for
discharge of aggression, including violence.
5.Incapacity to experience guilt or to profit from
experience, particularly punishment.
6.Markedly prone to blame others or to offer plausible
rationalization for the behavior that has brought the person
into conflict with society.
The Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders
(DSM IV-TR) is another widely used tool for the diagnosis and
it defines sociopath traits as:
A) Pervasive pattern of disregard for and violation of the
rights of others occurring since age 15 years, as indicated
by three or more of the following:
1.Failure to conform to social norms with respect to
lawful behaviors as indicated by repeatedly performing acts
that are grounds for arrest
2.Deception, as indicated by repeatedly lying, use of
aliases, or conning others for personal profit or pleasure
3.Impulsiveness or failure to plan ahead
4.Irritability and aggressiveness, as indicated by
repeated physical fights or assaults
5.Reckless disregard for safety of self or others
6.Consistent irresponsibility, as indicated by repeated
failure to sustain consistent work behavior or honor
financial obligations
7.Lack of remorse as indicated by being indifferent to or
rationalizing having hurt, mistreated, or stolen from another
... ... ...
Sociopathy vs. Psychopathy vs. Antisocial Personality
Disorder
There is often confusion between these terminologies
because of wide overlapping of the features. Sociopathy is
nearly synonymous with antisocial personality disorder.
Antisocial personality disorder is a medical diagnosis which
is commonly termed as sociopathy. However, some people may
have some features of sociopathy which may not be suffice to
meet the diagnostic criteria for antisocial personality
disorder. They may also be called (albeit wrongly)
sociopaths.
Some people consider psychopathy synonymous with
sociopathy. However, psychopathy is a more severe form of
sociopathy. Psychopathy is not a defined diagnosis in the
widely used DSM-IV criteria for the diagnosis of mental
disorders. Most of psychopaths will meet the diagnostic
criteria for antisocial personality disorder, however vice
versa is not true and only 1/3rd of the sociopaths will meet
the criteria for psychopathy.
High Functioning Sociopath
High functioning sociopath is term used to describe people
with sociopath traits that also happen to have a very high
intelligence quotient.
They are likely to be highly successful in the field they
endeavor (politics, business, etc.).
They plan very meticulously and the presence of
sociopathic traits like lack of empathy, lack of remorse,
deceptiveness, shallow emotions, etc. makes it very difficult
for "normal" people to compete with them.
General caveat: in the absence of generally accepted
"objective" categories, the ICD/DCM "deviancy" descriptions
skew heavily towards (or certainly smell of) lack of expected
social conformance. (Even less than a century ago, it was not
uncommon that "uncooperative" relatives or wives, or reticent
individuals were committed to get rid of them, strip them of
their civil rights, or obtain control of their assets - with
the cooperation of the public and private sector psychiatric
profession). That's not to say they don't have a basis in
fact.
W.r.t. sociopathy, a characterization I found useful
was "treating other people like video game characters" (and
the word "pawn" (in the sense of chess) pretty much suggests
itself). It is consistent with the criteria you listed.
Other than that, it is a sliding scale/shades of gray, not
a yes/no kind of thing.
"
W.r.t. sociopathy, a characterization I found useful was
"treating other people like video game characters" (and the
word "pawn" (in the sense of chess) pretty much suggests
itself). It is consistent with the criteria you listed.
Other than that, it is a sliding scale/shades of gray, not a
yes/no kind of thing.
"
That's a very good observation. Thank you --
Treating people like video game characters = lack of
compassion = objectification
"(Even less than a century ago, it was not uncommon that
"uncooperative" relatives or wives, or reticent individuals
were committed to get rid of them, strip them of their civil
rights, or obtain control of their assets - with the
cooperation of the public and private sector psychiatric
profession).
"
Of course you can create a cliché out of any definition and
use it against people you do not like. But sociopathy is a
real danger in modern society, especially in terms of "high
functioning sociopaths" (if you look under this angle at
Clinton family you will find some interesting and disturbing
correlations) which neoliberalism implicitly promotes as it
objectify everything.
And in this sense is a sociopathic ideology == natural,
very convenient ideology for sociopaths.
I didn't mean a sociopathy diagnosis was used to
institutionalize people - the very concept was only defined
sometime after WW2. There were various other "conditions"
used to involuntarily commit people, or put them under
guardianship.
This is a strange argument.
First, you show cash balances are at a record high. OK. That
is in line with theory. Low rates will lead to larger cash
holdings.
Two, they take out more debt as interest rates are low.
The problem is they are not investing the money. The Fed
can persuade them to borrow, but not to invest (that is
demand driven).
"... The centrists have been parring away at the welfare state, not just pushing austerity on small
nations. ..."
"... In a way the triumph of neoliberalism created preconditions for far right movement renaissance.
Neoliberalism encourages actors within it (especially "reckless" sectors of financial oligarchy such
as hedge funds, private equity vultures, etc) to behave in ways that gradually make the neoliberal regime
politically unworkable. ..."
"... This way neoliberalism leads to, or contributes to the rise of neo-fascism. ..."
"... Deregulated markets are disembedded markets that amplify the feeling that capitalism is inherently
too dynamic and too unstable and as such unsafe for humans. It seems likely that what happened during
the last elections is simply a revulsion against the circumstances in which people find themselves ..."
Macron isn't exactly in favor of the welfare state which Krugman likes as he is in favor of
labor market reforms, etc.
The centrists have been parring away at the welfare state, not just pushing austerity on
small nations.
Krugman appears to be sort of backing an economic explanation to the right-wing populist backlish
(Brexit, Trump, Le Pen) in that he suggests the European elite's austerity is helping to create
the crisis where a Le Pen can make it to a second round.
Whereas center left Vox's Zak Beauchamp suggest it's only about immigration and Muslim extremists
and nothing more.
"fascism, like socialism, was rooted in a market society that refused to function' (p.239).
The more market crisis, the better fascism prospered, since it purportedly offered a way to
re-embed markets within social structures, albeit at the cost of human freedom. "
is a deep one.
In a way the triumph of neoliberalism created preconditions for far right movement renaissance.
Neoliberalism encourages actors within it (especially "reckless" sectors of financial oligarchy
such as hedge funds, private equity vultures, etc) to behave in ways that gradually make the neoliberal
regime politically unworkable.
This way neoliberalism leads to, or contributes to the rise of neo-fascism.
Deregulated markets are disembedded markets that amplify the feeling that capitalism is
inherently too dynamic and too unstable and as such unsafe for humans. It seems likely that what
happened during the last elections is simply a revulsion against the circumstances in which people
find themselves...
I think the problem with this article is that the author can't distinguish were Neoliberalism starts
and ends and were Anglo Zionism (which we will understand simply as Neocon ideology starts and ends.
both are variants of Trotskyism -- "Trotskyism for the rich" to be exact. Also it is economic interest
that trump all others, so that alliance of the USA and Israel is pragmatic and is about USA access to
ME oil
They definitely highly intersect, but they are still distinct political ideas ("The USA global empire
uber alles in case of neocons; translational elites uber alles in case of neoliberals) and somewhat
distinct ideologies. I am not convinced that Cheney cabals (which included Paul Wolfiwitz and several
other neocons) was only or mostly pro-Israel political faction. And if tail really wags the dog -- the
idea that Israel determine foreign policy of the USA -- is true of not. It can be be that empire has
its own dynamics and Israel is just a convenient and valuable ally for now, much like Saudies
Notable quotes:
"... To sum it all up, I need to warn both racists and rabid anti-anti-Zionists that I will disappoint them both: the object of my discussion and criticism below will be limited to categories which a person chooses to belong to or endorse (religion, political ideas, etc.) and not categories which one is born with (race, ethnicity). ..."
"... Second, so what are Jews if not a race? In my opinion, they are a tribe (which Oxford Dictionaires defines as: a social division in a traditional society consisting of families or communities linked by social, economic, religious, or blood ties, with a common culture and dialect, typically having a recognized leader ..."
"... as ye would that men should do to you, do ye also to them likewise ..."
"... My own preference still goes for "Zionist" because it combines the ideological racism of secular Jews with the religious racism of Judaics (if you don't like my choice, just replace "Zionist" with any of the categories I listed above). Zionism used to be secular, but it has turned religious during the late 20th century now and so for our purposes this term can encompass both secular and religious Jewish supremacists. Add to this some more or less conservative opinions and minsets and you have "Ziocons" as an alternative expression. ..."
"... doubleplusgoodthinking ..."
"... The reason why I decided to tackle this issue today is that the forces who broke Trump in less than a month are also the very same forces who have forced him into a political 180: the Neocons and the US deep state. However, I think that these two concepts can be fused into on I would call the "Ziocons": basically Zionists plus some rabid Anglo imperialists à la ..."
"... There is some pretty good evidence that the person in charge of this quiet coup is Jared Kushner, a rabid Zionist . Maybe . Maybe not. This does not really matter, what matters now is to understand what this all means for the rest of us in the "basket of deplorables", the "99%ers" – basically the rest of the planet. ..."
"... Syria . I think that we can all agree that having the black flag of Daesh fly over Damascus would be a disaster for Israel. Right? Wrong! You are thinking like a mentally sane person. This is not how the Israelis think at all. For them, Daesh is much preferable to Assad not only because Assad is the cornerstone of a unitary Syria, but because Daesh in power gives the Israelis the perfect pretext to establish a "security zone" to "protect" northern Israel. ..."
"... Daesh is basically a tool to carve up an even bigger Zionist entity. ..."
"... The bottom line is this: modern Neocons are little more than former Trotskyists who have found a new host to use. Their hatred for everything Russian is still so visceral that they rather support bona fide ..."
"... Bottom line – Ziocons feel an overwhelming and always present hatred for Russia and Russians and that factor is one of the key components of their motivations. Unless you take that hatred into account you will never be able to make sense of the Ziocons and their demented policies. ..."
"... Yes, Trump is a poorly educated ignoramus who is much better suited to the shows in Las Vegas than to be President of a nuclear superpower, but I don't see any signs of him being hateful of anybody. ..."
"... The poor man apparently had absolutely no idea of the power and maniacal drive of the Neocons who met him once he entered the White House. ..."
"... we now have the Ziocons in total control of BOTH parties in Congress (or, more accurately, both wings of the Ziocon party in Congress ..."
"... I get the feeling that there are only two types of officers left in the top ranks of the US military: retired ones and " ass-kissing little chickenshit s " à la ..."
"... ZOG. Or "Zionist Occupation Government". That used to be the favorite expression of various Jew-haters out there and it's use was considered the surefire sign of a rabid anti-Semite. And yet, that is precisely what we are now all living with: a Zionist occupation government which has clearly forced Trump to make a 180 on all his campaign promises and which now risks turning the USA into a radioactive desert resulting from a completely artificial and needless confrontation with Russia. ..."
"... Facts are facts, you cannot deny them or refuse to correctly qualify them that because of the possible "overtones" of the term chosen or because of some invented need to be especially "sensitive" when dealing with some special group. Remember – Jews are not owed any special favor and there is no need to constantly engage in various forms of complex linguistic or mental yoga contortions when discussing them and their role in the modern world. Still, I am using ZOG here just to show that it can be done, but this is not my favorite expression. ..."
"... at the same time ..."
"... ZOG is not an American problem. It is a planetary problem, if only because right now ZOG controls the US nuclear arsenal. ..."
"... I don't believe that Trump is dumb enough to actually strike at North Korea. I think that his dumbass plan is probably to shoot down a DPRK missile to show that he has made "America great again" or something equally asinine. ..."
"... To be totally honest, I don't think that the "very powerful armada" will do anything other than waste the US taxpayer's money. I am getting a strong sense that Trump is all about appearance over substance, what the Russians call "показуха" – a kind of fake show of force, full with special effects and "cool" photo ops, but lacking any real substance. Still, being on the receiving end of Trump's показуха (po-kah-zoo-kha) must be unnerving, especially if you already have natural paranoid tendencies. I am not at all sure the Kim Jong-un will find the presence of the US carrier strike group as pathetic and useless as I do. ..."
"... They are the ONLY ONES who really want to maintain the AngloZionst Empire at any cost. Trump made it clear over and over again that his priority was the USA and the American people, not the Empire. ..."
"... I can imagine the gasp of horror and disgust some of you will have at seeing me use the ZOG expression. I assure you, it is quite deliberate on my part. I want to 1) wake you up and 2) show you that you cannot allow the discomfort created by conditioning to guide your analyses ..."
"... Things are coming to a head. Trump presented himself as a real alternative to the ultimate warmongering shabbos-shiksa Hillary. It is now pretty darn obvious that what we got ourselves is just another puppet, but that the puppet-masters have not changed. ..."
"... From Ann Coulter to Pat Buchanan , many paleo-Conservatives clearly "got it". As did the real progressives . What we are left with is what I call the "extreme center", basically zombies who get their news from the Ziomedia and who have so many mental blocks that it takes weeks of focused efforts to basically bring them back to reality. ..."
"... The modern western [neoliberal] society has been built on a categorical rejection of [Christian] ethics and morality. Slogans like "God is dead" or "Beyond good and evil" resulted in the most abject and viciously evil century in human history: the 20th century. Furthermore, most people by now can tell that Hollywood, and its bigger brother, the US porn industry, have played a central role in basically removing categories such as "good" or "truth" or "honor" from the mind of those infected by the US mass media, especially the Idiot-box (aka "telescreen" in Orwell's 1984). Instead unbridled greed and consumption became the highest and most sacred expression of "our way of life" as Americans like to say ..."
"... Hollywood movies proclaimed that " greed is good ". In fact, at the very core of the capitalist [neoliberal] ideology is the belief that the sum total of everybody's greed yields the happiest and most successful society possible. Crazy and sick stuff, but I don't have the place to discuss this here. ..."
"... Sidebar: by the way, and contrary to popular belief, Russia is not an especially religious country at all. While only a minority of Russians is truly religious, a majority of Russians seem to support religious values as civilizational ones. ..."
"... for the time being we have this apparently paradoxical situation of a generally secular society standing for traditional and religious values ..."
"... You might wonder how pacifism, international law, human and civil rights, democracy, pluralism, anti-racism, ethics and morality can help avert a nuclear war in Korea. In truth – they cannot directly do this. But in the long term, I firmly believe that these values can corrode the AngloZionist Empire from within. ..."
"... Public protests does not work in a regime where the Ziomedia gets to decide which demonstration gets coverage and which one does not. ..."
"... ZIG is a more accurate acronym as in INFESTED. Think parasites like bed bugs, ticks, lice, mites, termites, scabies, fleas, ringworm, etc. ..."
"... Excellent, thought provoking and depressingly accurate. Even the cavil about the Golan Heights is based, if I'm not mistaken, on the fact Israel declared it annexed in 1981. ..."
"... I'll have to disagree. It's not the Jews that are using US for their own needs – it's the other way around. US realized the propaganda potential of the Jews and Israel at the end of WW2 and they never let go of it. ..."
"... That propaganda potential is still there, although it has been milked for more than 70 years now. Before WW2, there was not any kind of "special relationship" between the Jews and USA. US even turned a ship full of Jewish refugees before the onset of the war out of fear that they might offend the Nazis and suffer the consequences for it. That's what a great power they used to be back then – afraid what the Nazis might do to them. ..."
"... Their calculation was like this: Who were the greatest villains of WW2? – The Germans. Who were the ultimate victims of WW2? – The Jews. If the Germans were the bad guys, and the Jews were the good guys and the innocent victims – anybody portraying themselves as protectors of the victims can enjoy the image of being the good guys themselves. ..."
"... US are not the ones being controlled, they are the ones using Israel and the Jews for all they are worth as excellent propaganda material. Sure Israel and the Jews benefit from this, otherwise they wouldn't have agreed to this cozy symbiotic relationship. But the Jews didn't initiate this, it was always US idea. ..."
"... If Trump's foreign policies are being dictated by someone else I want him to give us names, addresses and photographs of the real decision makers. Until that happens I hold him responsible. I have begun to regard Trump as Dubya with Jared as his Cheney. ..."
"... Zionists are very powerful, but they are part of Globalism, a cabal of all elites of world: Chinese, EU, American, Jewish, Latin America, Hindus, Saudis, etc. It is the GLOB that rules. ..."
"... In general, the US leadership has not proven itself bright, cunning or principled enough to resist the Zio agenda. For exhibit "A" just read up on Truman. Then consider LBJ's response to the attack on the USS Liberty. ..."
"... One could also examine who the influential members of the admins of Wilson and FDR as well. ..."
"... But ZOG goes beyond mere government. The Zions now permeate countless NGO's, media institutions including news and entertainment, high finance, folkways involving culture-wide taboos, and or course, higher and lower education. Even Christian doctrine has been altered to accommodate this highly-aggressive movement. The Zionist agenda is a burgeoning phenomena. And its zombie acolytes are similarly ubiquitous. The Zions have captured our government–and more. ..."
"... So, we see a bunch of loyal dual American-Israeli citizens sitting at the top of the Israeli government, it's businesses, and its media? Oh – right – all those dual citizens are sitting atop US government, businesses and media. And we see Israel fighting wars for US' benefit? Oh – right – it's US doing the dirty work for Jewish expansionism. ..."
"... You do not get it Saker. It does not work that way. In absolute numbers losses are very low. It is all up to media to create a perception. America can afford to have many 1000′s more dead w/o any dent in its well being. Just control the media. Vilify the enemies. ..."
"... With the exception of Vietnam War America as and Empire hasn't lost a single war. Vietnam War was misguided from the point of view of the Empire which at the end of 1960′s and beginning of 1970′s was to be redirected to Middle East. ..."
"... There will be everlasting chaos of sectarian fighting as as long as TPTB will be supplying weapons to one of the sides. Always the weaker one at given moment. The same goes for Libya and soon for Syria. No more stable, semi-secular states with strong central power in the Middle East. ..."
"... Do not judge war success in terms of what is good or bad for Americans. It's all about the Empire, not about Americans. ..."
"... My bet is that it is not Trump himself but Ivanka. The elites found a soft spot and are using this weakness to control him. Who would have the means to do this? None other than his son in law Jared. ..."
"... Roland Bernard High Finance Shocking Revelations (Dutch with Subtitles) This video, more than any I have seen, exposes the dark heart of the matter. It's a must-watch from beginning to end. Highly credible, in my opinion. ..."
"... The Zionist attempt to control language. The Israel Project's 2009 GLOBAL LANGUAGE DICTIONARY ..."
"... But the Elephant driver is the British Empire System!!! ..."
"... It is the British behind the coup against Trump. The British want to prevent the end of "Geopolitics" as we know it which is what would happen should America Russia and China come together per the New Silk Road and One Belt initiatives. This is why the British are setting off ..."
"... Look at a swarm of the US Congresspeople blubbering praises for Israel during AIPAC' annual meetings. The US Congress is indeed the Zionist Occupied Territory, a picture of a host captured by a parasitoid. ..."
"... How many referenda the Syrians have held to bring the Golan Heights to the embrace of Israel? We cannot wait to hear your story of Syrian people voting to join Israel. ..."
"... Surely in the dreams of the US ziocons and in the criminal Oded Yinon's plan for Eretz Israel, which preaches for creating a civil disorder in the neighboring states so that Israel could snatch as much territory as possible from the neighbors. The ongoing Libyan and Syrian tragedies belong to that plan. ..."
"... Several notable Jewish American mobsters provided financial support for Israel through donations to Jewish organizations since the country's creation in 1948. Jewish-American gangsters used Israel's Law of Return to flee criminal charges or face deportation " ..."
"... when I read that I thought you might have meant Charlie Reese. he used to write for the Orlando Sentinel in Florida, until ((they)) ran him out ..."
"... Doesn't matter. It was a political defeat, and war is an extension of politics. ..."
First, a painful, but needed, clarification:
Basement crazies
.
Neocons .
Zionists .
Israel
Lobbyists . Judaics .
Jews
. Somewhere along this list we bump into the proverbial "elephant in the room". For some this
bumping will happen earlier in the list, for others a little later down the list, but the list will
be more or less the same for everybody. Proper etiquette, as least in the West, would want to make
us run away from that topic. I won't. Why? Well, for one thing I am constantly accused of not discussing
this elephant. Furthermore, I am afraid that the role this elephant is playing is particularly toxic
right now. So let me try to deal with this beast, but first I have to begin with some caveats.
First, terminology. For those who have not seen it, please read my article "
Why I use the term AngloZionist and why it is important ". Second, please read my friend Gilad
Atzmon's article "
Jews, Judaism & Jewishness " (or, even better, please read his seminal book
The Wondering
Who ). Please note that Gilad specifically excludes Judaics (religious Jews,) from his discussion.
He writes "I do not deal with Jews as a race or an ethnicity . I also generally
avoid dealing with Judaism (the religion)". I very much include them in my discussion. However, I
also fully agree with Gilad when he writes that "
Jews Are Not a Race But Jewish Identity is Racist " (those having any doubts about Jews not being
a race or ethnicity should read Shlomo Sand's excellent book "
The Invention of the Jewish People "). Lastly, please carefully review my definition of racism
as spelled out in my " moderation
policies ":
Racism is, in my opinion, not so much the belief that various human groups are different from
each other, say like dog breeds can be different, but the belief that the differences between human
groups are larger than within the group. Second, racism is also a belief that the biological characteristics
of your group somehow pre-determine your actions/choices/values in life. Third, racism often, but
not always, assumes a hierarchy amongst human groups (Germanic Aryans over Slavs or Jews, Jews over
Gentiles, etc.). I believe that God created all humans with the same purpose and that we are all
"brothers in Adam", that we all equally share the image (eternal and inherent potential for perfection)
of God (as opposed to our likeness to Him, which is our temporary and changing individual condition).
To sum it all up, I need to warn both racists and rabid anti-anti-Zionists that I will disappoint
them both: the object of my discussion and criticism below will be limited to categories which a
person chooses to belong to or endorse (religion, political ideas, etc.) and not categories which
one is born with (race, ethnicity).
Second, so what are Jews if not a race? In my opinion, they are a tribe (which Oxford Dictionaires
defines as: a social division in a traditional society consisting of families or communities
linked by social, economic, religious, or blood ties, with a common culture and dialect, typically
having a recognized leader ). A tribe is a group one can chose to join (Elizabeth Taylor) or
leave (Gilad Atzmon).
Third, it is precisely and because Jews are a tribe that we, non-Jews, owe them exactly nothing:
no special status, neither bad nor good, no special privilege of any kind, no special respect or
"sensitivity" – nothing at all. We ought to treat Jews exactly as we treat any other of our fellow
human beings: as ye would that men should do to you, do ye also to them likewise (Luke 6:31).
So if being Jewish is a choice and if any choice is a legitimate object of discussion and criticism,
then (choosing to) being Jewish is a legitimate object of discussion and criticism. Conversely, those
who would deny us the right to criticize Jews are, of course, the real racists since they do believe
that Jews somehow deserve a special status. In fact, that notion is at the core of the entire Jewish
identity and ideology.
Now let's come back to our opening list: Basement crazies. Neocons. Zionists. Israel Lobbyists.
Judaics. Jews. I submit that these are all legitimate categories as long as it is clear that "Jews
by birth only", what Alain Soral in France calls "the everyday Jews", are not included in this list.
Thus, for our purposes and in this context, these terms are all interchangeable. My own preference
still goes for "Zionist" because it combines the
ideological racism of secular Jews with the
religious racism
of Judaics (if you don't like my choice, just replace "Zionist" with any of the categories I
listed above). Zionism used to be secular, but it has turned religious during the late 20th century
now and so for our purposes this term can encompass both secular and religious Jewish supremacists.
Add to this some more or less conservative opinions and minsets and you have "Ziocons" as an alternative
expression.
[Sidebar: it tells you something about the power of the Zionist propaganda machine, I call it
the Ziomedia, that I would have to preface this article with a 700+ explanatory words note to try
to overcome conditioned mental reflexes in the reader (that I might be an evil anti-Semite). By the
way, I am under no illusions either: some Jews or doubleplusgoodthinking shabbos-goyim will
still accuse me of racism. This just comes with the territory. But the good news is when I will challenge
them to prove their accusation they will walk away empty-handed].
The reason why I decided to tackle this issue today is that the forces who
broke Trump in less than a month are also the very same forces who have forced him into a political
180: the Neocons and the US deep state. However, I think that these two concepts can be fused into
on I would call the "Ziocons": basically Zionists plus some rabid Anglo imperialists à la
Cheney or McCain. These are the folks who control the US corporate media, Hollywood, Congress,
most of academia, etc . These are the folks who organized a ferocious assault on the "nationalist"
or "patriotic" wing of Trump supporters and ousted Flynn and Bannon and these are the folks who basically
staged a color revolution against Trump . There is some pretty good evidence that the person
in charge of this quiet coup is
Jared Kushner, a rabid
Zionist .
Maybe . Maybe not. This does not really matter, what matters now is to understand what this all
means for the rest of us in the "basket of deplorables", the "99%ers" – basically the rest of the
planet.
Making sense of the crazies
Making sense of the motives and goals (one cannot speak of "logic" in this case) of self-deluded
racists can be a difficult exercise. But when the "basement crazies" (reminder: the term from from
here ) are
basically in control of the policies of the US Empire, this exercise becomes crucial, vital for the
survival of the mentally sane. I will now try to outline the reasons behind the "new" Trump policies
using two examples: Syria and Russia.
Syria . I think that we can all agree that having the black flag of Daesh fly over Damascus
would be a disaster for Israel. Right? Wrong! You are thinking like a mentally sane person. This
is not how the Israelis think at all. For them, Daesh is much preferable to Assad not only because
Assad is the cornerstone of a unitary Syria, but because Daesh in power gives the Israelis the perfect
pretext to establish a "security zone" to "protect" northern Israel. And that, in plain English,
means fully occupying and annexing the Golan (an old Israeli dream). Even better, the Israelis know
Daesh really well (they helped create it with the USA and Saudi Arabia) and they know that Daesh
is a mortal threat to Hezbollah. By putting Daesh into power in Syria, the Israelis hope for a long,
bloody and never ending war in Lebanon and Syria. While their northern neighbors would be plugged
into maelstrom of atrocities and horrors, the Israelis would get to watch it all from across their
border while sending a few aircraft from time to time to bomb Hezbollah positions or even innocent
civilians under whatever pretext. Remember how the
Israelis watched in total delight how their forces bombed the population of Gaza in 2014? With
Daesh in power in Damascus, they would get an even better show to take their kids to. Finally, and
last but most definitely not least, the Syrian Christians would be basically completely wiped out.
For those who know the hatred Judaics and Jews have always felt for Christianity (even
today ) it will be clear why the Israelis would want Daesh in power in Syria: Daesh is basically
a tool to carve up an even bigger Zionist entity.
Russia . Ziocons absolutely loathe Russia and everything Russian. Particularly the ex-Trotskyists
turned Neocons. I have
explained the origins of this hatred elsewhere and I won't repeat it all here. You just need
to study the genocidal policies against anything Russian of the first Bolshevik government (which
was 80%-85% Jews; don't believe me? Then listen
to Putin himself ). I have already discussed "
The ancient
spiritual roots of russophobia " in a past article and I have also explain what
rabbinical Phariseism (what is mistakenly called "Judaism" nowadays) is little more than an "anti-Christianity
"(please read those articles if this complex and fascinating history is of interest to you).
The bottom line is this: modern Neocons are little more than former Trotskyists who have found
a new host to use. Their hatred for everything Russian is still so visceral that they rather support
bona fide Nazis (isn't this ironic?) in the Ukraine than Russia, which is even more paradoxical
if you recall that before the 1917 Bolshevik coup anti-Jewish feelings were much stronger in what
is today the Ukraine than in what is the Russian Federation today.
In fact, relations between Russians and Jews have, I would argue, been significantly improving
since the Nazi coup in Kiev, much to the chagrin of the relatively few Russians left who truly hate
Jews. While you will hear a lot of criticism of organized political Jewry in Russia, especially compared
to the West, there is very little true anti-Jewish racism in Russia today, and even less publicly
expressed in the media (in fact, 'hate speech' is illegal in Russia). One thing to keep in mind is
that there are many substantial differences between Russian Jews and US Jews, especially amongst
those Russian Jews who deliberately chose not to emigrate to Israel, or some other western country
(those interested in this topic can find a more detailed discussion
here ). Jews in Russia today deliberately chose to stay and that, right there, show a very different
attitude than the attitude of those (Jews and non-Jews) who took the first opportunity to get out
of Russia as soon as possible. Bottom line – Ziocons feel an overwhelming and always present
hatred for Russia and Russians and that factor is one of the key components of their motivations.
Unless you take that hatred into account you will never be able to make sense of the Ziocons and
their demented policies.
Making sense of Trump
I think that Trump can be criticized for a lot of things, but there is exactly zero evidence of
him ever harboring anti-Russian feelings. There is plenty of evidence that he has always been pro-Israeli,
but no more than any politician or businessman in the USA. I doubt that Trump even knows where the
Golan Heights even are. He probably also does not know that Hezbollah and Daesh are mortal enemies.
Yes, Trump is a poorly educated ignoramus who is much better suited to the shows in Las Vegas
than to be President of a nuclear superpower, but I don't see any signs of him being hateful of anybody.
More generally, the guy is really not ideological. The best evidence is his goofy idea of building
a wall to solve the problem of illegal immigration: he (correctly) identified a problem, but then
he came up with a Kindergarten level (pseudo) solution.
The same goes for his views on Russia. He probably figured out something along these lines: "Putin
is a strong guy, Russia is a strong country, they hate Daesh and want to destroy it – let's join
forces". The poor man apparently had absolutely no idea of the power and maniacal drive of the
Neocons who met him once he entered the White House. Even worse is the fact that he apparently
does not realize that they are now using him to try out some pretty demented policies for which they
will later try to impeach him as the sole culprit should things go wrong (and they most definitely
will). Frankly, I get the feeling that Trump was basically sincere in his desire to "drain the swamp"
but that he is simply not too clever (just the way he betrayed Flynn and Bannon to try to appease
the Ziocons is so self-defeating and, frankly, stupid). But even if I am wrong and Trump was "their"
plant all along (I still don't believe that at all), the end result is the same: we now have
the Ziocons in total control of BOTH parties in Congress (or, more accurately, both wings of the
Ziocon party in Congress ), in total control of the White House, the mass media and Hollywood.
I am not so sure that they truly are in control of the Pentagon, but when I see the kind of pliable
and spineless figures military Trump has recently appointed, I get the feeling that there are
only two types of officers left in the top ranks of the US military: retired ones and "
ass-kissing little chickenshit s " à la Petraeus. Not good. Not good at all. As for
the ridiculously bloated (and therefore mostly incompetent) "three letter agencies soup", it appears
that it has been turned from an intelligence community to a highly politicized propaganda community
whose main purpose is to justify whatever counter-factual insanity their political bosses can dream
up. Again. Not good. Not good at all.
Living with ZOG
ZOG. Or "Zionist Occupation Government". That used to be the favorite expression of various
Jew-haters out there and it's use was considered the surefire sign of a rabid anti-Semite. And yet,
that is precisely what we are now all living with: a Zionist occupation government which has clearly
forced Trump to make a 180 on all his campaign promises and which now risks turning the USA into
a radioactive desert resulting from a completely artificial and needless confrontation with Russia.
To those horrified that I would dare use an expression like ZOG I will reply this: believe me,
I am even more upset about having to admit that ZOG is real than you are: I really don't care for
racists of any kind, and most of these ZOG folks looks like real racists to me. But, alas, they are
also right! Facts are facts, you cannot deny them or refuse to correctly qualify them that because
of the possible "overtones" of the term chosen or because of some invented need to be especially
"sensitive" when dealing with some special group. Remember – Jews are not owed any special favor
and there is no need to constantly engage in various forms of complex linguistic or mental yoga contortions
when discussing them and their role in the modern world. Still, I am using ZOG here just to show
that it can be done, but this is not my favorite expression. I just feel that committing the
crimethink here will encourage others to come out of their shell and speak freely. At the
very least, asking the question of whether we do or do not have a Zionist Occupation Government is
an extremely important exercise all by itself. Hence, today I ZOG-away
Some might argue with the "occupation" part of the label. Okay – what would you call a regime
which is clearly acting in direct opposition to the will of an overwhelming majority of the people
and which acts in the interests of a foreign power (with which the USA does not even have a formal
treaty)? Because, please make no mistake here, this is not a Trump-specific phenomenon. I think that
it all began with Reagan and that the Ziocons fully seized power with Bill Clinton. Others think
that it all began with Kennedy. Whatever may be the case, what is clear is that election after election
Americans consistently vote for less war and each time around they get more wars . It is true that
most Americans are mentally unable to conceptually analyze the bizarre phenomena of a country with
no enemies and formidable natural barriers needs to spend more on wars of aggression then the rest
of the planet spends of defense. Nor are they equipped to wonder why the US needs 16/17 intelligences
agencies when the vast majority of countries out there do fine with 2-5. Lastly, most Americans do
believe that they have some kind of duty to police the planet. True. But at the same time
, they are also sick and tired of wars, if only because so many of their relatives, friends
and neighbors return from these wars either dead or crippled. That, and the fact that Americans absolutely
hate losing. Losing is all the USA has been doing since God knows how long: losing wars against all
but the weakest and most defenseless countries out there. Most Americans also would prefer that the
money spent aboard on "defending democracy" (i.e. imperialism) be spent at home to help the millions
of Americans in need in the USA. As the southern rock band Lynyrd Snynyrd (which hails from Jacksonville,
Florida) once put it in their songs " Things
goin' on ":
Too many lives they've spent across the ocean
Too much money been spent upon the moon
Well, until they make it right
I hope they never sleep at night
They better make some changes
And do it soon
Soon? That song was written in 1978! And since then, nothing has changed. If anything, things
got worse, much worse.
Houston, we got a problem
ZOG is not an American problem. It is a planetary problem, if only because right now ZOG controls
the US nuclear arsenal. And Trump, who clearly and unequivocally campaigned on a peace platform,
is now sending a "
very powerful armada " to the coast of the DPRK. Powerful as this armada might be, it can do
absolutely nothing to prevent the DPRK artillery from smashing Seoul into smithereens. You think
that I am exaggerating? Business Insider estimated in 2010 that
it would take the DPRK 2 hours to completely obliterate Seoul . Why? Because
the
DPRK has enough artillery pieces to fire 500,000 rounds of artillery on Seoul in the first hour of
a conflict , that's why. Here we are talking about old fashioned, conventional, artillery pieces.
Wikipedia
says that the DPRK has 8,600 artillery pieces and 4,800 multiple rocket launcher systems. Two
days a go a Russian expert said that the real figure was just under 20'000 artillery pieces. Whatever
thee exact figure, suffice to say that it is "a lot".
The
DPRK also has some more modern but equally dangerous capabilities . Of special importance here
are the roughly 200'000 North Korean special forces. Oh sure, these 200'000 are not US Green Beret
or Russian Spetsnaz, but they are adequate for their task: to operate deep behind enemy lies and
create chaos and destroy key objectives. You tell me – what can the USS Carl Vinson carrier strike
group deploy against these well hidden and dispersed 10'000+ artillery pieces and 200'000 special
forces? Exactly, nothing at all.
And did I mention that the DPRK has nukes?
No, I did not. First, I am not at all sure that the kind of nukes the DPRK has can be fitted for
delivery on a missile. Having a few nukes and having missiles is one thing, having missiles capable
of adequately delivering these nukes is quite another. I suppose that DPRK special forces could simply
drive a nuke down near Seoul on a simple army truck and blow it up. Or bring it in a container ship
somewhere in the general vicinity of a US or Korean base and blow it up there. One neat trick would
be to load a nuke on a civilian ship, say a fishing vessel, and bring it somewhere near the USS Carl
Vinson and then blow it up. Even if the USN ships survive this unscathed, the panic aboard these
ships would be total. To be honest, this mostly Tom Clancy stuff, in real warfare I don't think that
the North Korean nukes would be very useful against a US attack. But you never know, necessity is
the mother of invention , as the British like to say.
I don't believe that Trump is dumb enough to actually strike at North Korea. I think that
his dumbass plan is probably to shoot down a DPRK missile to show that he has made "America great
again" or something equally asinine. The problem here is that I am not sure at all how Kim Jong-un
and his Party minions might react to that kind of loss of face. What if they decided that they needed
to fire some more missiles, some in the general direction of US forces in the region (there are fixed
US targets all over the place). Then what? How will Trump prove that he is the biggest dog on the
block? Could he decide to "punish" the offending missile launch site like he did with the al-Sharyat
airbase in Syria? And if Trump does that – what will Kim Jong-un's reaction be?
To be totally honest, I don't think that the "very powerful armada" will do anything other
than waste the US taxpayer's money. I am getting a strong sense that Trump is all about appearance
over substance, what the Russians call "показуха" – a kind of fake show of force, full with special
effects and "cool" photo ops, but lacking any real substance. Still, being on the receiving end of
Trump's показуха (po-kah-zoo-kha) must be unnerving, especially if you already have natural paranoid
tendencies. I am not at all sure the Kim Jong-un will find the presence of the US carrier strike
group as pathetic and useless as I do.
Both Russia and Syria have shown an amazing about of restraint when provoked by Turkey or the
US. This is mostly due to the fact that Russian and Syrian leaders are well-educated people who are
less concerned with loss of face than with achieving their end result. In direct contrast, both Kim
Jong-un and Trump are weak, insecure, leaders with an urgent need to prove to their people (and to
themselves!) that they are tough guys. Exactly the most dangerous kind of mindset you want in any
nuclear-capable power, be it huge like the USA or tiny like the DPRK.
So what does that have to do with the ZOG and the Ziocons? Everything.
They are the ONLY ONES who really want to maintain the AngloZionst Empire at any cost. Trump
made it clear over and over again that his priority was the USA and the American people, not the
Empire. And yet now is is playing a crazy game of "nuclear chicken" with the DPRK. Does that
sound like the "real Trump" to you? Maybe – but not to me. All this crazy stuff around the DPRK and
the (few) nukes it apparently has, is all just a pretext to "play empire", to show that, as Obama
liked to say, the USA is the "
indispensable
nation ". God forbid the local countries would deal with that problem alone, without USN carrier
strike groups involved in the "solving" of this problem!
[Sidebar: by the way, this is also the exact same situation in Syria: the Russians have single-handedly
organized a viable peace-process on the ground and then followed it up with a multi-party conference
in Astana, Kazakhstan. Looks great except for one problem: the indispensable nation was not even
invited. Even worse, the prospects of peace breaking out became terribly real. The said indispensable
nation therefore "invited itself" by illegally (and ineffectually) bombing a Syrian air base and,
having now proven its capacity to wreck any peace process, the USA is now right back in center-stage
of the negotiations about the future of Syria. In a perverse way, this almost makes sense.]
So yes, we have a problem and that problem is that ZOG is in total control of the Empire and will
never accept to let it go, even if that means destroying the USA in the process.
I can imagine the gasp of horror and disgust some of you will have at seeing me use the ZOG
expression. I assure you, it is quite deliberate on my part. I want to 1) wake you up and 2) show
you that you cannot allow the discomfort created by conditioning to guide your analyses . As
with all the other forms of crimethink , I recommend that you engage in a lot of it, preferably
in public, and you will get used to it. First it will be hard, but with time it will get easier (it
is also great fun). Furthermore, somebody needs to be the first one to scream "
the emperor has no clothes ". Then, once one person does it, the others realize that it is safe
and more follow. The key thing here is not to allow ideological "sacred cows" to roam around your
intellectual mindspace and limit you in your thinking. Dogmas should be limited to Divine revelations,
not human ideological constructs.
Where do we go from here?
Things are coming to a head. Trump presented himself as a real alternative to the ultimate
warmongering shabbos-shiksa Hillary. It is now pretty darn obvious that what we got ourselves is
just another puppet, but that the puppet-masters have not changed. The good news is that those
who were sincere in their opposition to war are now openly speaking about Trump great betrayal.
From Ann Coulter to
Pat Buchanan , many
paleo-Conservatives clearly "got it". As did the
real progressives . What we are left with is what I call the "extreme center", basically zombies
who get their news from the Ziomedia and who have so many mental blocks that it takes weeks of focused
efforts to basically bring them back to reality.
The key issue here is how do we bring together those who are still capable of thought? I think
that a minimalist agenda we can all agree upon could be composed of the following points:
Peace/pacifism International law Human and civil rights Democracy Pluralism Anti-racism Ethics and
morality
Sounds harmless? It ain't, I assure you. ZOG can only survive by violence, terror and war. Furthermore,
the AngloZionist Empire cannot abide by any principles of international law. As for human and civil
right, once quick look at the Patriot Act (which was already ready by the time the 9/11 false flag
operation was executed) will tell you how ZOG feels about these issues. More proof? How about the
entire "fake news" canard? How about the new levels of censorship in YouTube, Facebook or Google?
Don't you see that this is simply a frontal attack on free speech and the First Amendment?! What
about Black Lives Matter – is that not a perfect pretext to justify more police powers and a further
militarization of police forces? To think that the Zionists care about human or civil rights is a
joke! Just read what the Uber-Zionist and [putative] human right lawyer, the great Alan Dershowitz
writes about torture, Israel or free speech (for Norman Finkelstein). Heck, just read what ultra-liberal
super-mega human righter (well, after he returned to civilian life) and ex-President
Jimmy Carter writes about Israel -- Or look at the policies of the Bolshevik regime in Russia.
It it pretty clear that these guys not only don't give a damn about human or civil right, but that
they are deeply offended and outraged when they are told that they cannot violate these rights.
What about democracy? How can that be a intellectual weapon? Simple – you show that every time
the people (in the USA or Europe) voted for X they got Y. Or they were told to re-vote and re-vote
and re-vote again and again until, finally, the Y won. That is a clear lack of democracy. So if you
say that you want to restore democracy, you are basically advocating regime-change, but nicely wrapped
into a "good" ideological wrapper. Western democracies are profoundly anti-democratic. Show it!
Pluralism? Same deal. All this takes is to prove that the western society has become a "mono-ideological"
society were real dissent is simply not tolerated and were real pluralism is completely ascent from
the public discourse. Demand that the enemies of the system be given equal time on air and always
make sure that you give the supporters of the system equal time on media outlets you (we) control.
Then ask them to compare. This is exactly what Russia is doing nowadays (see
here if you are
interested). Western democracies are profoundly anti-pluralistic. Again, show it!
Anti-racism. Should be obvious to the reader by now. Denounce, reject and attack any idea which
gives any group any special status. Force your opponents to fess up to the fact that what they
really want when they claim to struggle for "equality" is a special status for their single-issue
minority. Reject any and all special interest groups and, especially, reject the notion that democracy
is about defending the minority against the majority. In reality, minorities are always much more
driven and motivated by a single issue which is why a coalition of minorities inevitably comes to
power. What the world needs is the exact opposite: a democracy which would protect the majority against
the minorities. Oh, sure, they will fight you on this one, but since you are right this is an intellectual
argument you ought to be capable of winning pretty easily (just remember, don't let accusations of
crimethink freeze you in terror).
Last, my favorite one: ethics and morality.
The modern western [neoliberal] society has been built on a categorical rejection of [Christian]
ethics and morality. Slogans like "God is dead" or "Beyond good and evil" resulted in the most abject
and viciously evil century in human history: the 20th century. Furthermore, most people by now can
tell that Hollywood, and its bigger brother, the US porn industry, have played a central role in
basically removing categories such as "good" or "truth" or "honor" from the mind of those infected
by the US mass media, especially the Idiot-box (aka "telescreen" in Orwell's 1984). Instead unbridled
greed and consumption became the highest and most sacred expression of "our way of life" as Americans
like to say .
Hollywood movies proclaimed that "
greed is good ". In fact, at the very core of the capitalist [neoliberal] ideology is the belief
that the sum total of everybody's greed yields the happiest and most successful society possible.
Crazy and sick stuff, but I don't have the place to discuss this here. All I will say that that
rehabilitating notions such as right and wrong, good and evil, truth and falsehood, healthy and natural
versus unnatural and pathological is a great legal way (at least so far) to fight the Empire. Ditto
for sexual morality and family. There is a reason why all Hollywood movies inevitably present only
divorced or sexually promiscuous heroes: they are trying to destroy the natural family unit because
they *correctly* identify the traditional family unit as a threat to the AngloZionist order. Likewise,
there is also a reason why all the western elites are constantly plagued by accusations of pedophilia
and other sexual scandals. One Russian commentator, Vitalii Tretiakov, recently hilariously paraphrased
the old communist slogan and declared "naturals of all countries – come to Russia" [in modern Russian
"naturals" is the antonym of "homosexual"). He was joking, of course, but he was also making a serious
point: Russia has become the only country which dares to openly uphold the core values of Christianity
and Islam (that, of course, only adds to the Ziocon's hatred of Russia).
[ Sidebar: by the way, and contrary to popular belief, Russia is not an especially religious
country at all. While only a minority of Russians is truly religious, a majority of Russians seem
to support religious values as civilizational ones. I don't think that this is sustainable for
too long, Russia will either become more religious or more secularized, but for the time being
we have this apparently paradoxical situation of a generally secular society standing for traditional
and religious values ]
You might wonder how pacifism, international law, human and civil rights, democracy, pluralism,
anti-racism, ethics and morality can help avert a nuclear war in Korea. In truth – they cannot directly
do this. But in the long term, I firmly believe that these values can corrode the AngloZionist Empire
from within. And look at the alternatives:
Organizing political parties does not work in a system where money determine the outcome. "Direct
action" does not work in a system which treats libertarians and ecologists as potential terrorists.
Public protests does not work in a regime where the Ziomedia gets to decide which demonstration
gets coverage and which one does not. Civil disobedience does not work in a regime which has
no problem having the highest per capita incarceration rate on the planet. Running for office does
not work in a regime which selects for spinelessness, immorality and, above all, subservience. Even
running away abroad does not work when dealing with an Empire which has 700-1000 (depends on how
you count) military bases worldwide and which will bomb the crap out of any government which strives
at even a modicum of true sovereignty.
The only other option is "internal exile", when you build yourself you own inner world of spiritual
and intellectual freedom and you basically "live there" with no external signs of you having "fled"
the Empire's ugly reality. But if nuclear-tipped ICBMs start flying no amount of "internal exile"
will protect you, not even if you combine that internal exile with with a life far away in the boonies.
Orthodox Christian eschatology teaches that the End Times are inevitable. However, the Fathers
also teach that we can push the End Times back by our collective actions, be it in the form of prayers
or in the form of an open resistance to Evil in our world. I have three children, 1 girl and 2 boys,
and I feel like I owe it to them to fight to make the world they will have to live even marginally
better.
... ... ..
nsa, April 17, 2017 at 1:26 am GMT
ZIG is a more accurate acronym as in INFESTED. Think parasites like bed bugs, ticks, lice,
mites, termites, scabies, fleas, ringworm, etc.
exiled off mainstreet, April 17, 2017 at 2:10 am GMT • 100 Words
Excellent, thought provoking and depressingly accurate. Even the cavil about the Golan
Heights is based, if I'm not mistaken, on the fact Israel declared it annexed in 1981. I'm
not sure it is internationally recognized, though the US, as an Israeli acolyte as indicated by
the article in spades, may have done so at some point.
Most of the time I like the way Saker thinks, but on this one I'll have to disagree. It's
not the Jews that are using US for their own needs – it's the other way around. US realized the
propaganda potential of the Jews and Israel at the end of WW2 and they never let go of it.
That propaganda potential is still there, although it has been milked for more than 70
years now. Before WW2, there was not any kind of "special relationship" between the Jews and USA.
US even turned a ship full of Jewish refugees before the onset of the war out of fear that they
might offend the Nazis and suffer the consequences for it. That's what a great power they used
to be back then – afraid what the Nazis might do to them.
Then in the closing stages of WW2, when the Russians told them what they found in the concentration
camps that they liberated – at first the Americans dismissed their reports as "communist propaganda."
They refused to believe that highly "civilized" European country such as Germany can commit such
barbarities. Only after they were faced with overwhelming evidence about the concentration camps,
the US decided to change their tune.
Their calculation was like this: Who were the greatest villains of WW2? – The Germans.
Who were the ultimate victims of WW2? – The Jews. If the Germans were the bad guys, and the Jews
were the good guys and the innocent victims – anybody portraying themselves as protectors of the
victims can enjoy the image of being the good guys themselves. That formula is still being
used today, but it's mostly in Europe and US that it's still considered valid, for the rest of
the world just too much time has passed and some of Israel's behavior in the ME has cast a shadow
on their image as eternal victims.
People on this site want to view the Jews as George Milton and US as Lenny Small – from Steinbeck
novel "Of mice and men". But the reality is much different. US are not Lenny Small, a giant with
great physical strength but not too much brain power. US are not the ones being controlled,
they are the ones using Israel and the Jews for all they are worth as excellent propaganda material.
Sure Israel and the Jews benefit from this, otherwise they wouldn't have agreed to this cozy symbiotic
relationship. But the Jews didn't initiate this, it was always US idea.
WorkingClass, April 17, 2017 at 4:20 am GMT /p>
If Trump's foreign policies are being dictated by someone else I want him to give us names,
addresses and photographs of the real decision makers. Until that happens I hold him responsible.
I have begun to regard Trump as Dubya with Jared as his Cheney.
Well done Saker. Please keep up the good work.
Anon, April 17, 2017 at 5:31 am GMT
Zionists are very powerful, but they are part of Globalism, a cabal of all elites of world:
Chinese, EU, American, Jewish, Latin America, Hindus, Saudis, etc. It is the GLOB that rules.
But the Jews didn't initiate this, it was always US idea.
Nice try, but what have you to say about the originators of the Zionist project?
P.S.: In general, the US leadership has not proven itself bright, cunning or principled
enough to resist the Zio agenda. For exhibit "A" just read up on Truman. Then consider LBJ's response
to the attack on the USS Liberty.
One could also examine who the influential members of the admins of Wilson and FDR as well.
Mark Green, April 17, 2017 at 4:50 pm GMT
This is a very thoughtful article. The Saker covers a lot of ground. Basically, he has provided
his readers with not only a highly perceptive overview, but a blueprint from which they can begin
resisting ZOG (or ZIG) tyranny. And let's make no mistake about it: ZOG exists and its impact
is immense.
But ZOG goes beyond mere government. The Zions now permeate countless NGO's, media institutions
including news and entertainment, high finance, folkways involving culture-wide taboos, and or
course, higher and lower education. Even Christian doctrine has been altered to accommodate this
highly-aggressive movement. The Zionist agenda is a burgeoning phenomena. And its zombie acolytes
are similarly ubiquitous. The Zions have captured our government–and more.
The Saker also correctly notes that the distorting influence of Zionism has become too apparent
to deny–even though it is, at the same time, nearly invisible; as it operates in plain sight under
various pseudonyms, disguises and false pretenses.
Indeed, its influence remains mostly unrecognized and it is therefore unresisted. For now.
Indeed, even Trump–after only months in office–has fallen under its clever spell. We must therefore
strive to examine, discuss, critique and resist this extra-national force of malevolence. Step
one: Identify the source.
The intellectual and culture-wide power of ZOG emanates in great part via our mainstream media.
The mind-numbing and destructive impact of ZOG in Western media must be understood and unmasked.
Fran Macadam, April 18, 2017 at 2:13 am GMT
When you're right you're right. Logic like this is what leads the paranoiacs to think Russkis
are taking over! When you make good sense, it can't help but "control" minds.
One of the saddest developments, to a former implacable Cold Warrior and anticommunist, is
that when by a miracle (yes, I count it that) the Russians ended communism by their own choice,
without shots being fired, our side did not respond honorably (at least the ones at the commanding
heights of our society.)
Like your description of what Trump thought, "Hey Russia's fighting ISIS, let's have them take
care of it and save us the trouble" I'm a simple guy too who'd rather see the destructive waste
of war money instead be spent on infrastructure for our folks.
I think of "House of the Dead" where the picture of the prisoners waiting for release through
the coming of Christ, is a picture of us poor prisoners, but still of faith, waiting in this world
too. Even so, come quickly, Lord Jesus.
CalDre, April 18, 2017 at 2:56 am GMT
@Cyrano
Wow, where to start when someone claims white is black .
It's not the Jews that are using US for their own needs – it's the other way around.
So, we see a bunch of loyal dual American-Israeli citizens sitting at the top of the Israeli
government, it's businesses, and its media? Oh – right – all those dual citizens are sitting atop
US government, businesses and media. And we see Israel fighting wars for US' benefit? Oh – right
– it's US doing the dirty work for Jewish expansionism.
US even turned a ship full of Jewish refugees before the onset of the war out of fear that
they might offend the Nazis and suffer the consequences for it.
That's not the case. The Jews were turned away because the Jewish Establishment/Zionists ordered
the US to turn them back. Why? Because they wanted them to go to Israel to rob the Palestinians
of their land instead. So it was not the Nazis the US was afraid of (then or now), but the Jewish
oligarchs.
Then in the closing stages of WW2, when the Russians told them what they found in the concentration
camps that they liberated – at first the Americans dismissed their reports as "communist propaganda."
They refused to believe that highly "civilized" European country such as Germany can commit such
barbarities. Only after they were faced with overwhelming evidence about the concentration camps,
the US decided to change their tune.
There is not to this day any "overwhelming" or even "underwhelming" evidence of the Holohoax.
Soviets made a bunch of propaganda out of the (labor) camps in large part to get back at Germany
for the terrible losses the Soviets suffered, as well as the huge embarrassment when the Nazis
revealed the Soviet crimes in Katlyn Forest. However when in the early 1990s Gorbachev released
the notorious Auschwitz "death books", it turns out hardly any Jews were killed, and none by gassings,
rather the vast majority of the dead succumbed to typhus (typhus being carried by lice, and Zyklon-B,
the chemical Germany is (falsely) accused of using to murder Jews by the millions, was actually
used to kill lice and thereby save Jews in the camps).
utu, April 18, 2017 at 5:37 am GMT
But even if I am wrong and Trump was "their" plant all along
It's possible that Trump did not even know that he was their plant but at some point after
psychological profiling of him and assessing all leverages available to them to pry and prod him
it was decided he will be just fine for the job. That's why he was allowed to win the election.
The anti-Trump color revolution conducted by the so-called liberal left was a crucial part from
the arsenal of the leverages. In the end it worked out beautifully for them. Gen. Flynn was not
too bright to realize what hit him but Bannon is perhaps the only guy, in the good guys camp,
who knows what is really going on. I am just wondering why he is still there. Perhaps they are
forcing him to stay for the sake of the deluded iron electorate of Trump to prolong their delusion.
they are also sick and tired of wars, if only because so many of their relatives, friends
and neighbors return from these wars either dead or crippled. That, and the fact that Americans
absolutely hate losing. Losing is all the USA has been doing since God knows how long: losing
wars against all but the weakest and most defenseless countries out there
You do not get it Saker. It does not work that way. In absolute numbers losses are very
low. It is all up to media to create a perception. America can afford to have many 1000′s more
dead w/o any dent in its well being. Just control the media. Vilify the enemies.
With the exception of Vietnam War America as and Empire hasn't lost a single war. Vietnam
War was misguided from the point of view of the Empire which at the end of 1960′s and beginning
of 1970′s was to be redirected to Middle East.
This was a new task for the Empire. So everything goes according to the plan, e.g. Iraq war
goals were 100% accomplished. There is no more state of Iraq. Iraq will no pose a thread to anybody
and Israel in particular. There will be everlasting chaos of sectarian fighting as as long
as TPTB will be supplying weapons to one of the sides. Always the weaker one at given moment.
The same goes for Libya and soon for Syria. No more stable, semi-secular states with strong central
power in the Middle East.
Do not judge war success in terms of what is good or bad for Americans. It's all about
the Empire, not about Americans.
The best Saker's essay so far, the most inspired and the most identifiable. Just two quick
notes from me.
First, the ZOG/ZIG is so ubiquitous and powerful that the past election with Trump against
Hillary was really a duel between pro-Trump young Zionists and the pro-Hillary old Zionists, in
other words it was a generational change among the Masters (it was also a change in who will profit
from political power). Since Trump turned to the Dark Side, I have realised that Jared was always
there, even during the election, as an éminence grise and he pulled Trump's strings a forced a
switch from election rhetoric to post-election reality. I have no doubt that Jared is the man
behind the man, except that he also must have a fairly powerful Zionist base behind him.
Second, Saker just like Mr Giraldi has become a magnet for all and sundry Hasbara trolls, obviously
because both are the most prominent exposers of the ZOG/ZIG. It is important to remember that
all Western Governments are ZOG/ZIG, without exception. Only BRICS countries appear free at the
moment, despite 1000 military basis of the global ZOG/ZIG.
My bet is that it is not Trump himself but Ivanka. The elites found a soft spot and
are using this weakness to control him. Who would have the means to do this? None other than
his son in law Jared.
He could have coerced her into doing something stupid on camera like group sex or being
blacked and little Jared would not think twice to use this to control a weak man like Trump.
Translation from "alt-rightish" into English:
"Ive been a dupe and a stupid sucker for the last 2 1/2 years, and I need to believe that somehow
the Jooz corrupted and bent this fine American hero to their own will in two months, instead of
acknowledging the obvious truth that he was a weak, pathetic asset, and a literal as well as figurative,
cocksucker, all along."
I don't know if you wrote this as a response to my comment some time back arguing you were
ignoring the elephant in the room, but this article reflects my thoughts more or less on Zion.
I would add the historical record of Zion from Pharoah, the catacombs under Rome, to Spain,
to Edwardian England, Tsarist Russia and so on is a record much like a locust. You have to wonder
where all the 'persecution' comes from. Where the causuality?
Its seeks economic surplus.
And yes, they are missing the part of the brain associated with white high empathy and 'fair
play' as Jayman has mentioned. They studied that weakness in Tavistock to find these pavlonian
words like 'rac-ism' and when designing the themes in their movies and the fiction work they publish.
The way to defeat Zion is to say the Necromancers name. Say it. If you say whats going on,
the power of the Illusion and the fraud subsists entirely. No violence is needed. Repeat no violence
is needed. Just say it. Bring it up in a discussion about politics politely and with evidence.
The higher IQ people you meet will cotton on when you anchor the pattern recognition.
They are the real 1%, they cannot govern with enlightened chattel. This is why philosophy,
psychology, economics, history, anthropology, biology, and so on have been debased into slogans
in the academy.
In time, they will come after your daughters and mothers and sisters and turn them into whores.
They will send your sons to war. They will fleece your pension funds.
The truth, is that the most persecuted race of man in history – with a notable minority of
followers of truth like the editor of this webzine -Mr Unz, Mr Sanders, Mr Marx and so on – is
that there is a number who are essentially a very high IQ version of the mafia.
• 100 Words My own reading leads me to identify the following as the Elders of Zion:
Steve Schwarzmann
Paul Singer
Robert Rubin
David Rubenstein
Summer Rothstein
Evelyn Rothschild
Stephen Friedman
Elliot Abrams
There are some more. Put them on a map and draw the links between them and their agents. Khordovsky
gave his money to Rothschild to mind after the 1990s pillaging of Russia when Putin imprisoned
him.
Ohhh they hate Putin because he stopped them in the 90s more than anything. Khordovsky was
trying to buy a media outlet.
Also the Protocols may be based on a satire but as Lord Syndenham mentioned in the Times 100
years ago, it was a spooky blueprint for the Bolshevik revolution .and the EU.
Lena Dunham social policy for jewish social freedom
Milton Autism on economics to stop redistribution to the goyim
Kristol on foreign policy for Israel's world domination.
e.g Tony Blair, Macron, Cameroon, Merkel, Juncker, Bush, Clinton etc etc.
There is no difference. They are all the same party.
@Cyrano Most of the time I like the way Saker thinks, but on this one I'll have to disagree.
It's not the Jews that are using US for their own needs – it's the other way around. US realized
the propaganda potential of the Jews and Israel at the end of WW2 and they never let go of it.
That propaganda potential is still there, although it has been milked for more than 70 years
now. Before WW2, there was not any kind of "special relationship" between the Jews and USA. US
even turned a ship full of Jewish refugees before the onset of the war out of fear that they might
offend the Nazis and suffer the consequences for it. That's what a great power they used to be
back then – afraid what the Nazis might do to them.
Then in the closing stages of WW2, when the Russians told them what they found in the concentration
camps that they liberated – at first the Americans dismissed their reports as "communist propaganda."
They refused to believe that highly "civilized" European country such as Germany can commit such
barbarities. Only after they were faced with overwhelming evidence about the concentration camps,
the US decided to change their tune.
Their calculation was like this: Who were the greatest villains of WW2? – The Germans. Who
were the ultimate victims of WW2? – The Jews. If the Germans were the bad guys, and the Jews were
the good guys and the innocent victims – anybody portraying themselves as protectors of the victims
can enjoy the image of being the good guys themselves. That formula is still being used today,
but it's mostly in Europe and US that it's still considered valid, for the rest of the world just
too much time has passed and some of Israel's behavior in the ME has cast a shadow on their image
as eternal victims.
People on this site want to view the Jews as George Milton and US as Lenny Small – from Steinbeck
novel "Of mice and men". But the reality is much different. US are not Lenny Small, a giant with
great physical strength but not too much brain power. US are not the ones being controlled, they
are the ones using Israel and the Jews for all they are worth as excellent propaganda material.
Sure Israel and the Jews benefit from this, otherwise they wouldn't have agreed to this cozy symbiotic
relationship. But the Jews didn't initiate this, it was always US idea. With no disrespect Cyrano,
you may need to read the 1996 report 'A Clean Break'
- and you'll quickly discover its the zionist entity that is the tail that wags the American dog.
The zionist entity is not limited to the geographical borders of the state of Israel, either.
Before blaming "The Jews" for the ills of the world it would behoove everyone to take a good
long hard look in the mirror. If you think you get an affirmative answer to "Who is the most beautiful
of all?" you are living in a fairy tale.
Deeply
Concerned ,
April 19, 2017 at 1:09 pm GMT
• 100 Words May I add that calling for a worldwide demonstration on a preannouced day (similar
to the one against W's Iraq war) is critically needed. The slogan of this demonstration should
be "ANY US CITIZEN WHO PUTS THE INTEREST OF ISRAEL ABOVE THE NATIONAL INTEREST OF THE US IS –
A TRAITOR . ANYONE WHO SUPPORT, PROMOTE, DEFEND A TRAITOR IS A TRAITOR". Traitor is the key word
in my opinion and it should be the rallying word.
Vires
,
April 19, 2017 at 5:50 pm GMT
• 300 Words
@Cyrano Most of the time I like the way Saker thinks, but on this one I'll have to disagree.
It's not the Jews that are using US for their own needs – it's the other way around. US realized
the propaganda potential of the Jews and Israel at the end of WW2 and they never let go of it.
That propaganda potential is still there, although it has been milked for more than 70 years
now. Before WW2, there was not any kind of "special relationship" between the Jews and USA. US
even turned a ship full of Jewish refugees before the onset of the war out of fear that they might
offend the Nazis and suffer the consequences for it. That's what a great power they used to be
back then – afraid what the Nazis might do to them.
Then in the closing stages of WW2, when the Russians told them what they found in the concentration
camps that they liberated – at first the Americans dismissed their reports as "communist propaganda."
They refused to believe that highly "civilized" European country such as Germany can commit such
barbarities. Only after they were faced with overwhelming evidence about the concentration camps,
the US decided to change their tune.
Their calculation was like this: Who were the greatest villains of WW2? – The Germans. Who
were the ultimate victims of WW2? – The Jews. If the Germans were the bad guys, and the Jews were
the good guys and the innocent victims – anybody portraying themselves as protectors of the victims
can enjoy the image of being the good guys themselves. That formula is still being used today,
but it's mostly in Europe and US that it's still considered valid, for the rest of the world just
too much time has passed and some of Israel's behavior in the ME has cast a shadow on their image
as eternal victims.
People on this site want to view the Jews as George Milton and US as Lenny Small – from Steinbeck
novel "Of mice and men". But the reality is much different. US are not Lenny Small, a giant with
great physical strength but not too much brain power. US are not the ones being controlled, they
are the ones using Israel and the Jews for all they are worth as excellent propaganda material.
Sure Israel and the Jews benefit from this, otherwise they wouldn't have agreed to this cozy symbiotic
relationship. But the Jews didn't initiate this, it was always US idea. Why are you trying to
conflate Jews and Zionists? Are you unable to see the difference between the two concepts?
It's pretty clear the issue is the stranglehold the Zionist Lobby AKA Israel lobby has
on the legislative, judiciary and executive branches of the US Federal Government and the Federal
Reserve, and its influence on the propaganda machine and academia.
Therefore the issue is not about "Jews" using the USG, but rather the Zionist Lobby, AKA Israel
Lobby in the US or Jewish Lobby in Israel, having and using the stranglehold on the USG, academia
and propaganda machine (mass media and Hollywood) to further their goals.
It's not the Jews that are using US for their own needs – it's the other way around
When you refer to "Jews", do you mean the Zionist lobby AKA Israel lobby , or the average
"Jew sixpack" living in the US i.e. the rest?
If what you mean is the so called Israel lobby when you refer to "Jews", two professors, one
of Political Sciences and one of International Affairs, both from top US Universities, disagree
with your remarkable theory, and have written extensively and with plenty of references supporting
their claims:
John Mearsheimer
R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Sciences
Chicago University
Stephen Walt
Belfer Professor of International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government
Harvard University
Three links, first two for an article, second with all references. Third for the even more
detailed book, refuting your claims.
Are you familiar with their work? Are you rejecting their claims?
If yes, on what are you basing your rebuttal and what is your background?
Or are you trying to frame the blogger and everyone concerned with the subject as old Jew-haters
and anti-semites?
Now, if after reading the Saker's post, the only thing you understood was:
The Saker: "The Jews" are to blame for the ills of the world folks
Then I would recommend you should seriously improve your English, at least reading comprehension
skills – perhaps some online courses – before commenting and making a fool of yourself again publicly.
• 200 Words
@Vires Why are you trying to conflate Jews and Zionists? Are you unable to see the difference
between the two concepts?
It's pretty clear the issue is the stranglehold the Zionist Lobby AKA Israel lobby has
on the legislative, judiciary and executive branches of the US Federal Government and the Federal
Reserve, and its influence on the propaganda machine and academia.
Therefore the issue is not about "Jews" using the USG, but rather the Zionist Lobby, AKA Israel
Lobby in the US or Jewish Lobby in Israel, having and using the stranglehold on the USG, academia
and propaganda machine (mass media and Hollywood) to further their goals.
It's not the Jews that are using US for their own needs – it's the other way around
When you refer to "Jews", do you mean the Zionist lobby AKA Israel lobby , or the average
"Jew sixpack" living in the US i.e. the rest?
If what you mean is the so called Israel lobby when you refer to "Jews", two professors, one
of Political Sciences and one of International Affairs, both from top US Universities, disagree
with your remarkable theory, and have written extensively and with plenty of references supporting
their claims:
John Mearsheimer
R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Sciences
Chicago University
Stephen Walt
Belfer Professor of International Affairs, John F. Kennedy School of Government
Harvard University
Three links, first two for an article, second with all references. Third for the even more
detailed book, refuting your claims.
What is your background, and on what are you basing your claims?
Have you published an official rebuttal?
Or is your theory just a "hunch"? I am just a writer, I don't have any agenda and I call the
things as I see them. I don't buy the theory of the all-powerful Zionist lobby steering the American
foreign policy either. Why? Because it makes no sense. Sure there is such a lobby, but US allows
it to exist because it suits their interests. They (US establishment) are the ones responsible,
not the Israel lobby.
If all anyone had to do in order to influence US government – was to form a lobby – then during
the cold war there would have been a communist lobby in Washington, financed by the USSR. They
would have poured billions of dollars, and not only the cold war could have ended quickly, but
maybe today America would have been communist. Do you see where I am going with this? US government
allows lobbies to exist only after they comply with their interests. They are the initiators of
policies, not lobbies. Have a nice day.
Cyrano, April 20, 2017 at 3:56 am GMT
• 100 Word\
@Vires
You know man, you are a perfect proof why there is so much propaganda in US. Because you
make it easy on them. Them being the government. Yeah, poor US government at the mercy of evil
Zionist lobby. If it wasn't for it, it would be the most benevolent government in the world,
bringing peace and prosperity wherever they go. One day you'll wake up and you'll look into
the abyss and you'll realize that the abyss is your complete ignorance. But don't listen to
me, keep on voting every 4 years, that's going to change everything. And keep bitching about
the Jewish lobby, you are so much smarter than the average American, you have it all figured
out.
Russia. Ziocons absolutely loathe Russia and everything Russian.
Don't flatter yourself. Most Jews don't give a shit about Russia. Jews *DO* hate Iranians,
Palestinians, Syrians, Lebanese and Arab Christians but we really don't care about Russia. We
like to mock Russian nationalists like yourself and Western Russophiles but we don't hate you.
Okay, maybe we do hate Western Russophiles, I know I sure do, but we don't hate Russia or Russians.
And the reason we don't hate you is because you just aren't important enough to be worth hating.
I agree with your reasons for why Israel wants an ISIS victory (although it is ridiculous to
suggest that Israel's current cucked out leadership wants to expand Israel's borders). It is probably
the only thing you have gotten right in years. Good job! You are improving!
Roland Bernard High Finance Shocking Revelations (Dutch with Subtitles) This video, more
than any I have seen, exposes the dark heart of the matter. It's a must-watch from beginning to
end. Highly credible, in my opinion. Wally
,
April 20, 2017 at 7:58 am GMT
Russia. Ziocons absolutely loathe Russia and everything Russian.
Don't flatter yourself. Most Jews don't give a shit about Russia. Jews *DO* hate Iranians, Palestinians,
Syrians, Lebanese and Arab Christians but we really don't care about Russia. We like to mock Russian
nationalists like yourself and Western Russophiles but we don't hate you. Okay, maybe we do hate
Western Russophiles, I know I sure do, but we don't hate Russia or Russians.
And the reason we don't hate you is because you just aren't important enough to be worth hating.
I agree with your reasons for why Israel wants an ISIS victory (although it is ridiculous to
suggest that Israel's current cucked out leadership wants to expand Israel's borders). It is probably
the only thing you have gotten right in years. Good job! You are improving! The True Cost of Israel
Forced U.S. taxpayers money goes far beyond the official numbers.
Israel's occupation of the West Bank is an internationally-recognized human rights crime-but
those being impacted are harshly punished for not only acts of resistance, but even mere advocacy
for their rights.
When Trump basically fellated AIPAC during his campaign it worried me. But I thought maybe
just maybe, Trump was playing the Jews ..this article in all it's glory suggests I am very wrong.
That any potential president has to genuflect to Israel and Jews is the saddest thing in American
History. You can almost wish it would all implode. A hard reset minus Jewish whining and control
would be a true utopia.
@Cyrano You know man, you are a perfect proof why there is so much propaganda in US. Because
you make it easy on them. Them being the government. Yeah, poor US government at the mercy of
evil Zionist lobby. If it wasn't for it, it would be the most benevolent government in the world,
bringing peace and prosperity wherever they go. One day you'll wake up and you'll look into the
abyss and you'll realize that the abyss is your complete ignorance. But don't listen to me, keep
on voting every 4 years, that's going to change everything. And keep bitching about the Jewish
lobby, you are so much smarter than the average American, you have it all figured out. Jew finance
capitalists [ the master money manipulators] and their cohort in MEDIA are most certainly jewish..
Who the hell do you think promotes all this homo rights crap? It's not so much the jew Svengali
-but you- the rube in the mirror, who will have to be dealt with first when the lights go out..
Bruce
Marshall ,
April 20, 2017 at 4:16 pm GMT
But the Elephant driver is the British Empire System!!!
It is the British behind the coup against Trump. The British want to prevent the end of
"Geopolitics" as we know it which is what would happen should America Russia and China come together
per the New Silk Road and One Belt initiatives. This is why the British are setting off
World War III.
" you are a perfect proof why there is so much propaganda in US. "
Don't you imply that "so much propaganda in US" is anti-Zionist? If yes, then you have no idea
about MSM in the US. Just to give you a hint, try to google this name: Helen Thomas, specifically
a story of her private conversation with a Jewish man (who happened to be a born informer).
Look at a swarm of the US Congresspeople blubbering praises for Israel during AIPAC' annual
meetings. The US Congress is indeed the Zionist Occupied Territory, a picture of a host captured
by a parasitoid.
@Quartermaster And so was Russia's annexation of Crimea. You don't think Saker would want
to call attention to such things do you?
How many referenda the Syrians have held to bring the Golan Heights to the embrace of Israel?
We cannot wait to hear your story of Syrian people voting to join Israel. Tell us, when did
the Golan Heights belong to Israel?
Surely in the dreams of the US ziocons and in the criminal Oded Yinon's plan for Eretz
Israel, which preaches for creating a civil disorder in the neighboring states so that Israel
could snatch as much territory as possible from the neighbors. The ongoing Libyan and Syrian tragedies
belong to that plan.
The ziocons' cooperation with Ukrainian neo-Nazis is another story. "Never again," indeed.
In the Middle Ages, antisemitism defined Jews as a religious group and focused on their
religious separateness.
In the more secular era of Dreyfus and the Nazis and Nasser, antisemitism defined Jews as
an ethnic group and focused on their ethnic separateness.
Now that we are in an era which celebrates group identity and views it as a virtue, antisemitism
focuses on denying Jews their ethnic or religious identity.
" antisemitism focuses on denying Jews their ethnic or religious identity.states "
The article is about ziocons and it emphasizes, specifically, that conflating Jews and Zionists
is dishonest. You need to read the article before making your generalizations.
Considering the number of synagogues in the US and the prominence of ziocons among policy-makers
in the US, please tell us, who exactly "denies Jews their ethnic or religious identity." Have
you heard about Wolfowitz, Feith, and Kagans? How about Nuland-Kagan fraternizing with neo-Nazis?
Still OK?
https://consortiumnews.com/2015/07/13/the-mess-that-nuland-made/
ZIG is a more accurate acronym......as in INFESTED. Think parasites like bed bugs, ticks,
lice, mites, termites, scabies, fleas, ringworm, etc.
Zionist Infested Government! Brilliant! I'm going to start using this term.
Anyone who's spent any time inside the beltway quickly realizes that AngloZionists – the Saker's
term is really useful if one wants to accurately and concisely summarize these people, their ideology,
and their ultimate loyalties – infest from top to bottom the three branches of the federal government,
all the supporting bureaucracies, and all the parasitic lobbying groups, consultants, foundations,
think tanks, etc., that wield less official powers. Their proportional presence in Washington
is many orders of magnitude greater than their proportion in the general population and their
power is magnified by their informally shared ideologies and goals.
Not many of these people are actually aware of the harm they are causing. Most are fundamentally
decent people. Some I count as close friends. Yet the combined power these people wield and the
varying levels of allegiance they bear to foreign powers whose interests are inimical to those
of the USA and its citizens make them, considered en masse, an existential threat to this country,
to world peace, and to international law and order.
Few US citizens nowadays seem to know any foreign language, pity, for the following book explains
Russian anti semitism:
Alexander Solschenizyn, ´Die russisch- jüdische Geschichte 1795- 1916, >> Zweihundert Jahre zusammen
<<´, Moskau 2001, München 2002
Who is interested in the why of German anti semitism after 1870 has more luck:
Ismar Schorsch, 'Jewish Reactions to German Anti-Semitism, 1870 – 1914', New York 1972
Fritz Stern, 'Gold and Iron, Bismarck, Bleichröder, and the Building of the German Empire', New
York, 1977.
'From prejudice to destruction', Jacob Katz, 1980, Cambridge MA
Also interesting is:
Horace Meyer Kallen, 'Zionism and World Politics; A Study in History and Social Psychology', New
York, 1921
Pre WWII 'neocons':
Bruce Allen Murphy, 'The Brandeis/Frankfurter Connection, The Secret Political Activities of Two
Supreme Court Justices', New York, 1983
jacques sheete ,
April 20, 2017 at 6:23 pm GMT
@Wally
Jewish groups get up to 97% of grants from the Homeland Security"
The so called non-profit scene also appears to me little more than a cesspool of corruption
and I wonder who or what dominates those rackets.
ZOG is an excellent term that describes the situation in America perfectly. The fact of ZOG
is undeniable to everyone politically involved in the US government.
The question is will people use the term "ZOG" to attack Jews? It has one great advantage –
the word "Jew" is not used.
The thing that Jews themselves fear the most, is the word "Jew" used by Gentiles. The American
population is conditioned not to use the word. Subliminal fear is attached to using the word "Jew."
The goal of the American population must be to eliminate ZOG – but not Jews.
The question is – can this be done without using the word "Jew" and all that goes with it?
@blaggard I applaud your honesty and logic. What a fight...
Although it is made to appear so, the battle between the 'conservatives' and 'liberals'
is not a battle of ideas or even of political organizations. It's is a battle of force, terror
and power. The Jews and their accomplices and dupes are not running our country and its people
because of the excellence of their ideas or the merit of their work or because they have the
genuine backing of the majority. The Zionists are in power in spite of the lack of these things,
and only because they have driven their way into power by daring minority tactics. They can
stay in power only because people are afraid to oppose them, afraid they will be socially ostracized,
afraid they will be smeared in the press, afraid they will lose their jobs, afraid they will
not be able to run their businesses, afraid they will lose their political offices. It is fear
and fear alone which keeps these filthy left-wing sneaks in power.
@naro No one is more critical of Jews and Israel than other Jews. Jews are and have been a
NATION in exile. Their genetic identity has been proven several times using Mitochondrial DNA
in prestigious medical journals such as Nature and Science...so it is not in doubt. There is continuous
historical record of Jews for at least 2000 years. Christian guilt is well deserved for their
historical hounding, persecutions, exiled and pogroms against innocent Jews under their jurisdictions.
The writer of this article is a hate monger. There are Jews of all political spectrum. They
are not homogeneous in their political position.
Jews succeed because they study hard, work hard, and take risks in business and politics. They
think outside the box, and are inventive and scientifically curious. Instead of envying their
success try to learn and emulate it losers.
They also engage in pretty intense ethnic networking and favoritism, things they typically castigate
others for doing.
Re. diversity of Jewish political opinion, I don't see it. Most Jews are partisan Democrats
in the US and there is very broad agreement on major issues, like immigration and Israeli-centric
foreign policy, details notwithstanding. And very few Jews will acknowledge that historically,
collective Jewish behavior has played a role in the negative opinions so many peoples hold against
them, indeed they strenuously deny it. (Smoke but no fire? Unlikely.)
Last, my favorite one: ethics and morality. The modern western society has been built on
a categorical rejection of ethics and morality.
Bravo – that paragraph was golden in my book. If this is gone – kiss your society good bye
– you're just living on borrowed time – all the gold and all the nuclear spears in the world will
not save you.
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root."
– Henry David Thoreau
Ivanka's mommy is of the tribe too: "Ivana is also Jewish. Geni.com lists her father's name
as both Knavs and Zelnícek. I'll give you a hint: drop the second "e". You get Zelnick. It is
Yiddish for haberdasher. Clothier. It's Jewish, too. See Robert Zelnick, Strauss Zelnick, Bob
Zelnick, etc. Robert was a fellow at the Hoover Institution, Stanford. Strauss was President of
20th Century Fox. Bob was ABC News producer. Also Friedrich Zelnik, silent film producer. Also
David O. Selznick, whose name was originally Zeleznick, or, alternately, Zelnick. He and his father
were major Hollywood produ - See more at: http://www.rense.com/general96/trumpjewish.htm#sthash.4xaQKh2i.dpuf
It's all in the family (La famiglia, Kosher Nostra). The ones who voted for him are the suckers.
Kosher Nostra!!!
The problem with fiat money is that if one has enough of it, one can buy just about anything
under the sun that they please, including even large parts of a country's political system and
government.
Take for example, Jared (a.k.a. billionaire arch-Zionist trust-fund baby) Kushner
Peace. It is not my invention. All From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:
"Jewish-American organized crime":
'Jewish-American organized crime emerged within the American Jewish community during the late
19th and early 20th centuries. It has been referred to variously in media and popular culture
as the Jewish Mob, Jewish Mafia, Kosher Mafia, Kosher Nostra, or Undzer Shtik (Yiddish: אונדזער
שטיק). The last two of these terms refer to the Italian Cosa Nostra (Italian pronunciation: [kɔza
nɔstra]); the former is a play on the word kosher, referring to Jewish dietary laws, while the
latter is a direct translation of the phrase (Italian for "our thing") into Yiddish, which was
at the time the predominant language of the Jewish diaspora in the United States
In more recent years, Jewish-American organized crime has reappeared in the forms of both Israeli
and Jewish-Russian mafia criminal groups, and Orthodox kidnapping gangs .
Several notable Jewish American mobsters provided financial support for Israel through
donations to Jewish organizations since the country's creation in 1948. Jewish-American gangsters
used Israel's Law of Return to flee criminal charges or face deportation "
Anonymous , April 21, 2017 at 3:31 am GMT
@wayfarer
Even the staff at his own Jewish day school were surprised he was accepted at Harvard.
He was described as a lacklustre student his father bought his entry, and they were disappointed
that more qualified students from his school didn't make the cut.
Second, so what are Jews if not a race? In my opinion, they are a tribe (which Oxford Dictionaires
defines as: a social division in a traditional society consisting of families or communities
linked by social, economic, religious, or blood ties, with a common culture and dialect, typically
having a recognized leader). A tribe is a group one can chose to join (Elizabeth Taylor) or
leave (Gilad Atzmon).
It's true that US Jews are mixed race (about 55% European and 45% Semitic) although they choose
to Obama-ize the fact (the European part disappears).
Also, after a lifetime of contact, I would say that the best guys leave the Tribe (often the
most Semitic and through disgust ) and the worst girls join (Gentiles attracted by money and power).
FGS. Please give it up! Trying to solve Jewish question eventually leads to insanity. Saker
(et al on this site) are not interested in "solving Jewish question." – We are interested in the
survival of humanity, specifically in stopping a WWIII that could happen thanks to ziocons' policies.
" fomenting sectarian strife in order to forestal the development of a unified Arab nation which
could threaten it and creating the circumstances in which land could be acquired was at the root
of Israel's relationship with its northern neighbor."
http://www.globalresearch.ca/israel-and-islamist-militias-a-strange-and-recurring-alliance/5586075
" the "liberal" American press, written almost totally by Jewish admirers of Israel who, even
if they are critical of some aspects of the Israeli state, practice loyally what Stalin used to
call "the constructive criticism." (In fact those among them who claim also to be "Anti- Stalinist"
are in reality more Stalinist than Stalin, with Israel being their god which has not yet failed).
In the framework of such critical worship it must be assumed that Israel has always "good intentions"
and only "makes mistakes," and therefore such a plan would not be a matter for discussion–exactly
as the Biblical genocides committed by Jews are not mentioned."
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/pdf/The%20Zionist%20Plan%20for%20the%20Middle%20East.pdf
My German is not of the best, but I have been interested in 200 Years Together for a while,
so maybe I can give it a try. I will try to check out these other titles you have provided, too.
Sol Bloom, 'The Autobiography of Sol Bloom', New York 1948
also is interesting, though just for one sentence, something like 'the great accomplishment
of Roosevelt was that he slowy prepared the USA people for war'.
This is in one sentence the book
Charles A. Beard, 'American Foreign Policy in the Making, 1932 – 1940, A study in responsibilities',
New Haven, 1946
Alas few people seem to read books any more, especially old books. The interesting thing about
a book, great contrast with a web article, is, once printed, it cannot be changed any more.
Sol Bloom was a jewish friend of Roosevelt. You might also want to read
Henry Morgenthau, 'Ambassador Morgenthau's Story', New Yirk, 1918
Heath W. Lowry, 'The story behind Ambassador Morgenthau's Story', Istanbul 1990
and
Charles Callan Tansill, 'Amerika geht in den Krieg', Stuttgart 1939 (America goes to War, 1938)
How the USA, and especially Morgenthau, wanted to fight Germany, in WWI.
Both Bloom and Morgenthau were of German descent, I suppose they hated Germany because of its
antisemitism.
@Ilyana_Rozumova @ Saker!!!!
FGS. Please give it up! Trying to solve Jewish question eventually leads to insanity. Are maybe
present events solving the jewish question ?
There seems to be little doubt that Trump is in conflict with Deep State, neocons in the lead,
mainly jews.
See also:
John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, 'The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy', New York
2007
It is possible that Marine le Pen of FN wins the French elections.
FN is accused of being antisemitic:
Pierre-André Taguieff, Michèle Tribalat, 'Face au Front national, Arguments pour une contre-offensive',
Paris, 1998 is an anti FN book written by two jews.
Hungary is closing Soros's university.
Putin already closed his institutions in Russia.
Joe Levantine , April 21, 2017 at 3:24 pm GMT
@Cyrano
Americans using Jews or vice versa? Just check the roles that Bernard Baruck and Rabbi Steven
Wise have played from the administration of crooked Woodrow Wilson to the more crooked Franklin
Delano Roosevelt. Two names among thousands of Jews who have shaped U.S. policies while hiding
behind the facade of their puppet presidents should give anyone food for thought.
If Cyrano can bring back into circulation the forbidden book of ' The Controversy of Zion' by
the late Douglas Reed who turned from bestseller author to a nonexistent nothing the moment he
published his 400+ book, I am positive that the commentator would apologise for this comment.
@naro Mr. Petras you are a vile old man. Nazis were quite capable at merciless killing of
defenseless Jewish (and others) men, women and children by the millions, as they were unprepared
for the utter vile brutality that Nazism represented. Now the Jews are well defended and strong,
and will defend themselves to the utmost. So come to to the fight old boy, we can take on Nazis
. We know them better now. "Now the Jews are well defended and strong we can take on Nazis."
A member of the powerful Kagans' clan of warmongers, Mrs. Nuland-Kagan has been an eager collaborator
with Ukrainian neo-Nazis (do you know about Baby Yar and such? – Mrs. Nuland-Kagan is obviously
OK with the history of Ukrainian Jews during WWII). Neither ADL nor AIPAC made any noises about
bringing Ukrainian neo-Nazis to power in Kiev in 2014. Why?
And what about Israel' collaboration with ISIS against sovereign Syria? "The documents show
that Israel has been doing more than simply treating wounded Syrian civilians in hospitals. This
and a few past reports have described transfer of unspecified supplies from Israel to the Syrian
rebels, and sightings of IDF soldiers meeting with the Syrian opposition east of the green zone,
as well as incidents when Israeli soldiers opened up the fence to allow Syrians through who did
not appear to be injured.
http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/New-UN-report-reveals-collaboration-between-Israel-and-Syrian-rebels-383926
A Canadian darling of the US State Dept, Chrystia Freeland, happened to be a progeny of a Nazi
collaborator from Ukraine (Mr. Chomiak), though Mrs. Freeland proclaimed loudly that her grandpa
was "persecuted by the Soviets:"
https://consortiumnews.com/2017/02/27/a-nazi-skeleton-in-the-family-closet/
" it appears Freeland's grandfather – rather than being a helpless victim – was given a prestigious
job to spread Nazi propaganda, praising Hitler from a publishing house stolen from Jews and given
to Ukrainians who shared the values of Nazism. Chomiak's editorials also described a Poland "infected
by Jews." Mrs. Freeland is still in office, spreading Russophobia that is so dear to ziocon hearts.
In case you did not notice, Zionists (ziocons) are modern-day Nazis.
" the "liberal" American press, written almost totally by Jewish admirers of Israel who, even
if they are critical of some aspects of the Israeli state, practice loyally what Stalin used to
call "the constructive criticism." In the framework of such critical worship it must be assumed
that Israel has always "good intentions" and only "makes mistakes," and therefore such a plan
would not be a matter for discussion–exactly as the Biblical genocides committed by Jews are not
mentioned."
http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/pdf/The%20Zionist%20Plan%20for%20th
We are guilty by proxy of murder, land theft, destruction of property and all the other
human misery that Israel has caused in the region.
So, if you're one of those rah-rah Israel First supporters, don't complain when the terrorists
come looking for you. You've allowed your politicians to enlist you in somebody else's war,
and in war there are always casualties on both sides.
America has become a nation of pathological irresponsibility. Nobody wants to take responsibility
for his or her own actions, which is the basic cause of the litigation flood. Least of all
do American politicians wish to do so. They would rather heap on the manure that the terrorism
directed at us has nothing whatsoever to do with the policies they have followed for the past
30 years or more. In truth, it has everything to do with those policies.
So, if you or your loved ones get bloodied by terrorists, then blame your Christian Zionists,
your Israel First crowd and your corrupt politicians who have their tongues in the ears and
their hands in the pockets of the Israeli lobby.
@turtle Sooner or later, the U.S. will go down to defeat, at which point "da Joos" will have
to find a new host.
I expect they will have a bit of a tough row to hoe in this, the New Chinese Century.
No matter how hard you try, I doubt you can pass off this woman:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Connie_Chung
or any of her countrywomen, as "Semitic,"
thus disproving that "Jewish" = "Semitic" or vice versa.
Shlomo Wong? I think not. I read Jewish community publications all the time I have concluded they
are planning their next jump to China after they destroy America
There are endless articles about how much Jews and Chinese have in common (lie, cheat and steal).
They discovered that in medieval and early modern times there was a community of Persian Jews
in China and blather on about that.
And there is approval of marriage of Jewish men to Chinese women.
But the Chinese are not love thy neighbor Christians. Nor do they have millions of wanna be
Jews Old Testament obsessed Protestants. Chinese officials are well known for accepting bribes
and then doing exactly what they want.
On the other hand, Israel and American DOD employees sell lots of stolen American military
secrets to China.
Jewish attempted takeover of China will be a battle of the Titans.
• 100 Words
@Wally Indeed, "non-profit", but Jews Only and huge salaries
Recall the corrupt & hate mongering ADL, or SPLC.
Look at the 'holocau$t' scam.
Build yet another laughable 'holocaust' Theme Park, Potemkin Village, put up a picture of MLK,
falsely claim that it's all about 'tolerance', 'diversity and civil rights while down playing
it's obvious Jewish supremacism, and voila! Massive taxpayers subsidies.
"One should not ask, how this mass murder was made possible. It was technically possible, because
it happened. This has to be the obligatory starting-point for any historical research regarding
this topic. We would just like to remind you: There is no debate regarding the existence of
the gas chambers, and there can never be one."
- endorsed by 34 "reputable historians" and published in the French daily Le Monde on February
21, 1979
====================================
"These Holocaust deniers are very slick people. They justify everything they say with facts
and figures."
- Steven Some, Chairman of the New Jersey Commission on Holocaust Education, Newark Star-Ledger,
23 Oct. 1996, p 15.
Here's the top non-profits. None are identifiably Jewish:
1 Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation United States Seattle, Washington $42.3 billion 1994 [1]
2 Stichting INGKA Foundation Netherlands Leiden $34.6 billion €33.0 billion (EUR) 1982 [2]
3 Wellcome Trust United Kingdom London $26.0 billion £20.9 billion (GBP) 1936 [3]
4 Howard Hughes Medical Institute United States Chevy Chase, Maryland $18.2 billion 1953 [4]
5 Ford Foundation United States New York City, New York $11.2 billion 1936 [5]
6 Kamehameha Schools United States Honolulu, Hawaii $11.1 billion 1887 [6]
7 J. Paul Getty Trust United States Los Angeles, California $10.5 billion 1982 [5]
8 Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Foundation United Arab Emirates Dubai $10.0 billion 37 billion
د.إ (AED) 2007 [7]
9 Azim Premji Foundation India Bangalore $9.8 billion 2001 [8]
10 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation United States Princeton, New Jersey $9.53 billion 1972 [5]
@Alden I just read the latest ADL diktat. As of today any mention of Jared Kushner is deemed
anti Semitic. Consequences will be severe. I just read the latest ADL diktat. As of today any
mention of Jared Kushner is deemed anti Semitic. Consequences will be severe.
They have good reason to hide him – he and his family have some shady business dealings – his
father is a x-convict. How did he come into billions of dollars?
They say that Jared inherited his money – how did that happen when his father is still living
– did they get special tax treatment?
Hmm?
Peace - Art
p.s. Jared Kushner is 100% Zionist – how can this work out good for America?
Well he's wrong to exclude them unless you're just excluding Zionist. It doesn't matter whether
they are religious or secular. They're all made of the same stuff. Surely you've heard of all
the organ smuggling, drug dealing and other goings on in the religious community and they're supposed
to be the good guys?
There's one idea that describes the Jews perfectly. It describes their parasitism, their, lying,
their chameleon like behavior, their sense of superiority and belief that they are different from
everyone else. There's a simple explanation for why the Jews are hated so much that also explains
their behavior and success. The Jews are a tribe of psychopaths. No all, maybe not even the majority,
but a large number. All of the Jews ancient writings are nothing more than a manual for psychopaths
to live by. The Talmud is nothing but one psychopathic thought after another. The Talmud "great
enlightenment" basically says that everyone not Jewish is there to serve Jews. All their property
is really the Jews. No one is really human unless they're Jews and their lives don't matter. A
psychopathic religion for a psychopathic people.
They've been thrown out of every single country that they've been to in any numbers. Psychopaths
having no empathy themselves can only go by the feedback they get from the people they are exploiting.
So they push and push to see what they can get away with. The normal people build up resentment
towards them. Thinking "surely they will reform or repent" like a normal person who does wrong.
Of course the Jews do not. They don't have the mental process for reform. Then in a huge mass
outpouring of hate for the Jews, fed up with the refusal to reform their behavior, they attack
and/or deport them. In this stage of the cycle the Big/Rich Jews escape and the little Jews are
attacked.
Start over.
Even if it's wrong if you assume the Jews are a tribe of psychopaths you will never be surprised
and Jew's behavior will make sense.
In order to predict Jews behavior read the great book on Psychopaths by Hervey Cleckley, "The
Mask of Sanity". Here's a chapter you should read. It's about the psychopath Stanley. Who does
all kinds of manic bullshit and spends all his time feeding people the most outrageous lies. Look
at the astounding array of things he's able to get away with. Maybe it will remind you of a certain
tribe. New meme. "They're pulling a Stanley". The whole book is on the web and worth reading.
I use the simplest of logic to determine this. Form follows function, Occam's Razor. Their
behavior is exactly like psychopaths. Their religious beliefs are exactly like the internal dialog
of psychopaths. I don't know but if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and swims like a
duck. It's a duck and the Jews are a tribe of psychopaths. The MOST IMPORTANT PART is that the
behavior of the Jews as a group over time can not be reliably separated from the behavior of psychopaths.
Even if I'm wrong their behavior is the same so they should be treated as psychopaths. A very
dangerous, powerful group with no empathy towards anyone but other Jews.
I don't know why Zionist get such a bad rap I want them all to go to Israel so I'm a Zionist
too.
@wayfarer The problem with fiat money is that if one has enough of it, one can buy just about
anything under the sun that they please, including even large parts of a country's political system
and government.
Take for example, Jared (a.k.a. billionaire arch-Zionist trust-fund baby) Kushner
Thanks, very interesting. Funny thing, most of the Jews I know are such fervent liberals they
think Kushner is a traitor to the cause of liberalism.
Seraphim
,
April 22, 2017 at 2:09 am GMT
@Art You are a nazi. Your generalization are the vile ranting of a hate filled animal.
Oh my - straight to the "N" word - what happened to "anti-Semite" - has it lost its sting?
Ah' to bad.
What are you going to call us next?
Peace --- Art
p.s. By the way Nazism and Zionism are brothers - both are fascists.
p.s. What about you Jew animals in Israel - you have the most immoral army in the world.
p.s. You Jews and your hateful bluster - you are fooling no one.
p.s. ZOG is going to lose. It is an irrefragable law:
"Godwin's law (or Godwin's rule of Hitler analogies) is an Internet adage which asserts that
"As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Hitler approaches
-that is, if an online discussion (regardless of topic or scope) goes on long enough, sooner
or later someone will compare someone or something to Hitler.
Promulgated by American attorney and author Mike Godwin in 1990, Godwin's law originally referred
specifically to Usenet newsgroup discussions. It is now applied to any threaded online discussion,
such as Internet forums, chat rooms, and comment threads, as well as to speeches, articles, and
other rhetoric where 'reductio ad Hitlerum'* occurs.
*Reductio ad Hitlerum (pseudo-Latin for "reduction to Hitler"; sometimes argumentum ad Hitlerum,
"argument to Hitler", ad Nazium, "to Nazism"), or playing the Nazi card, is an attempt to invalidate
someone else's position on the basis that the same view was held by Adolf Hitler or the Nazi Party,
for example: "Hitler was a vegetarian, X is a vegetarian, therefore X is a Nazi". A variation
of this fallacy, reductio ad Stalinum, also known as "red-baiting", has also been used in political
discourse.
Coined by Leo Strauss in 1951, reductio ad Hitlerum borrows its name from the term used in
logic, reductio ad absurdum (reduction to the absurd). According to Strauss, reductio ad Hitlerum
is a form of ad hominem, ad misericordiam, or a fallacy of irrelevance. The suggested rationale
is one of guilt by association. It is a tactic often used to derail arguments, because such comparisons
tend to distract and anger the opponent, as Hitler and Nazism have been condemned in the modern
world.
@Sam J. "... Please note that Gilad specifically excludes Judaics (religious Jews,)..."
Well he's wrong to exclude them unless you're just excluding Zionist. It doesn't matter whether
they are religious or secular. They're all made of the same stuff. Surely you've heard of all
the organ smuggling, drug dealing and other goings on in the religious community and they're supposed
to be the good guys?
There's one idea that describes the Jews perfectly. It describes their parasitism, their, lying,
their chameleon like behavior, their sense of superiority and belief that they are different from
everyone else. There's a simple explanation for why the Jews are hated so much that also explains
their behavior and success. The Jews are a tribe of psychopaths. No all, maybe not even the majority,
but a large number. All of the Jews ancient writings are nothing more than a manual for psychopaths
to live by. The Talmud is nothing but one psychopathic thought after another. The Talmud "great
enlightenment" basically says that everyone not Jewish is there to serve Jews. All their property
is really the Jews. No one is really human unless they're Jews and their lives don't matter. A
psychopathic religion for a psychopathic people.
They've been thrown out of every single country that they've been to in any numbers. Psychopaths
having no empathy themselves can only go by the feedback they get from the people they are exploiting.
So they push and push to see what they can get away with. The normal people build up resentment
towards them. Thinking "surely they will reform or repent" like a normal person who does wrong.
Of course the Jews do not. They don't have the mental process for reform. Then in a huge mass
outpouring of hate for the Jews, fed up with the refusal to reform their behavior, they attack
and/or deport them. In this stage of the cycle the Big/Rich Jews escape and the little Jews are
attacked.
Start over.
Even if it's wrong if you assume the Jews are a tribe of psychopaths you will never be surprised
and Jew's behavior will make sense.
In order to predict Jews behavior read the great book on Psychopaths by Hervey Cleckley, "The
Mask of Sanity". Here's a chapter you should read. It's about the psychopath Stanley. Who does
all kinds of manic bullshit and spends all his time feeding people the most outrageous lies. Look
at the astounding array of things he's able to get away with. Maybe it will remind you of a certain
tribe. New meme. "They're pulling a Stanley". The whole book is on the web and worth reading.
I use the simplest of logic to determine this. Form follows function, Occam's Razor. Their
behavior is exactly like psychopaths. Their religious beliefs are exactly like the internal dialog
of psychopaths. I don't know but if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck and swims like a
duck. It's a duck and the Jews are a tribe of psychopaths. The MOST IMPORTANT PART is that the
behavior of the Jews as a group over time can not be reliably separated from the behavior of psychopaths.
Even if I'm wrong their behavior is the same so they should be treated as psychopaths. A very
dangerous, powerful group with no empathy towards anyone but other Jews.
I don't know why Zionist get such a bad rap I want them all to go to Israel so I'm a Zionist
too. I don't know if this guy is real or if it's true or not but there's a vast amount of information
and cases which readily conform to the idea that everything he says is true. According to the
witnesses in the dutroux-affair all the participants had to break the law to be in business with
them on an intimate level. Mostly this was done through sexual abuse of children. Twenty years
ago you might could laugh this off as some foolish rantings of conspiracy freaks but there's been
too many verifiable cases with lots of physical evidence.
Pizzagate Pedogate Dutch Whistleblower Real Big Money Revelations by an Insider
I'm also not saying it's just Jews but I am saying they are the root of it all. They're the
glue that keeps the whole thing together due to their insider grouping tribalism.
"There are a thousand hacking at the branches of evil to one who is striking at the root."
– Henry David Thoreau
@Naro Again To Summarize JEWS ARE THE BRAINIEST AND MOST ACCOMPLISHED HUMANS ALIVE TRYING
TO SURVIVE IN A WORLD OF MORONS AND IMPRESSIONABLE IDIOTS! Examples of the psychopathology and
idiocy of the Nazis is obvious on this thread-ironically in a web site owned by a Jew.
The envious losers, and political manipulators have always looked for scapegoats for their failures,
and Jews were easy targets. Not any more. Jews are quite able to defend themselves ..thank you.
You don't believe me? just try. " Jews are quite able to defend themselves .."
At least now you have prudently omitted references to Nazis, since you became educated from
other posts that American Jews – see Kagans' clan of warmongers – are in bed with Ukrainian neo-Nazis
and, moreover, that an Israeli citizen is known as a financier of the bloody neo-Nazi battalion
that had burnt a score of civilians to death in Odessa.
American (and UK) Israel-firsters have betrayed western civilization for the benefit of mythological
Eretz Israel. Your tribe was pushing for the slaughter in Iraq (see treasonous Wolfowitz and Feith
and the despicable Kristol) and in Libya (the former pearl of North Africa, where citizens used
to enjoy free education, free health care, and a sizable gold reserve – the latter stolen by the
US "deciders"). Currently, it is an ongoing bloodbath in Syria, which Israel wants to prolong
as much as possible in order to steal the Golan Heights. For the same reason your "most accomplished"
Israeli generals proclaimed loudly their preference for ISIS. What have you claimed, that your
tribe is the "brainiest?" – Relax. With such "activists" like the openly racist Avigdor Lieberman
(ex-convict) and your half-wit hater Ayelet Shaked you are safely among mediocrities. As for the
truly brainiest and ethical like Baruch Spinoza and Hanna Arend, they were rejected by your supremacist
tribe. Check the location of Spinoza' grave.
@Anonymous shut up naziscum. where is your thousand year reich? in the garbage An Israeli
demonstrates her regular poor manners Aren't you trying to imply that Israelis are striving for
their thousand-year reich? Good luck. Don't forget to take the neo-Nazi-loving Kagans' clan with
you.
Johnny F. Ive,
April 23, 2017 at 6:48 am GMT
What if the US Empire was financially bankrupted? How would it behave afterwards? I think
it will end with military overstretch and bankruptcy or nuclear war. One or the other. Its sad
that all this suffering is a tribal war. On man's way to civilization he forgot to leave that
behind. Would the US behave after bankruptcy like the Soviets did after losing in Afghanistan
or is the US going to be even more like a huge North Korea? Besides Israel there is the manipulations
of other countries like the Europeans.
I agree Trump is very concerned about appearance and that makes him weak. He like the rest
of the American Establishment is like Narcissus and in their pond the Empire is reflected back
at them. They won't let go of it.
I disagree that the American people vote against war. The American people have had plenty of
chances. They've had chances to turn the world's fortunes around plenty of times with Pat Buchanan,
Ron Paul, Dennis Kucinich, and Ralph Nader. That pretty much covers the whole ideological spectrum
except the neocons. The American people have consistently voted for war at least since 1992. They
had these men who ran for president in order to save us all and the were consistently rejected
by the electorate. Its not just the government. Its the 4th estate. The corporations. I'm now
a pessimist. War will come and it will fail. The question is who will the Empire wage war against
and who will survive the war?
Is Pauline Christianity legitimate? The problem with it has always been that it was built on
a tribal story. A lot of good came from it. It was used to justify some bad things too. Its origins
are not the classical world. That is probably why the alt-right has a fascination with modern
pseudo-pagan religions. I think the real story is that the Ancient Greeks particularly the Epicureans
have won the argument: https://www.csun.edu/~hcfll004/Stoic-Epic-comp.html
– these ideas are older than Christianity.
The AngloZionist tribe is now considered what the Catholics considered the pagans were. The
word paganus means hick. Pagan now means new age and Christian in the West means hick. The AngloZionist
don't even like them but require their obedience and support. Perhaps its only a matter of time
before the Judeo-Christian fairy tail loses its political power and just becomes good literature.
It has no hope especially with the transhumanist wonders about to bequeathed to the world. It
can't compete. They avoided the truth for about 2000 years and couldn't develop a convincing response
against Epicureanism. Genesis is the best they could muster against natural selection after thousands
of years of knowing about it? Epikoros (Hebrew for heretic) in the end won! But the US Empire
has an unhealthy appetite of playing chicken with nuclear powers and western Judeo-Christianity
will not go peacefully into the night. Read More
Agree:
Beefcake the Mighty
@Yevardian Um, the Golan Heights was officially annexed by Israel in 1981.
I enjoy your articles, but you can't be taken seriously whilst you keep making amateurish mistakes
like this.
Ditto on Russia being the only country truly upholding Islamic values. If Israel officially
annexed the Golan heights in 1981, why is Netanyahu making noise about it now? Seems insecure.
Also consider that "true" Islamic or Christian values would be those proposed by the actual adherents.
Would Russians have any reason to discount or misrepresent their stated values if they were altruistic
and high minded? I suggest you try and critique the Sakers comments on their intended merits if
you wish to be taken seriously.
@nsa ZIG is a more accurate acronym......as in INFESTED. Think parasites like bed bugs, ticks,
lice, mites, termites, scabies, fleas, ringworm, etc. ZOP is accurate too, and ZOP is the specific
cause of ZOG.
ZOP is Zionist Occupied People, and ZOP is a description of the US and Israeli voter obsession
with and participation in a neurotic victim cult.
ZOP is the elephant in the room that nobody in broadcast media will discuss.
US and Israeli victim cult lobbyist are obsessed with cult dominance of national elections
and society.
The US and Israel have a dominant victim cult that displays a neurotic persecution complex
and frequently demands government remedies.
A US and Israeli victim cultist is conditioned to demand government reparations and entitlements
in exchange for their votes.
A typical US and Israeli victim cultist is obsessed with Nazi and white supremacy, claiming
that white-straight-Christian-males are deplorable Nazi or Nazi sympathizers.
The US and Israeli victim cult is aggressive toward foreign nations that are a perceived threat
to the cult.
As an example, here are some of the government entitlements enjoyed by victim cultists in Israel:
Israel refused to recognize an Israeli nationality at the country's establishment in 1948,
making an unusual distinction between "citizenship" and "nationality." Although all Israelis
qualify as "citizens of Israel," the state is defined as belonging to the "Jewish nation,"
meaning not only the 5.6 million Israeli Jews but also more than seven million Jews in the
diaspora.
Critics say the special status of Jewish nationality has been a way to undermine the citizenship
rights of non-Jews in Israel, especially the fifth of the population who are Arab. Some
30 laws in Israel specifically privilege Jews, including in the areas of immigration rights,
naturalization, access to land and employment.
Arab leaders have also long complained that indications of "Arab" nationality on ID cards make
it easy for police and government officials to target Arab citizens for harsher treatment.
The interior ministry has adopted more than 130 possible nationalities for Israeli citizens,
most of them defined in religious or ethnic terms, with "Jewish" and "Arab" being the main
categories.
@wayne Read about King David in the Bible. He was a genocidal psychopath. It states in the
Bible how he vicioulsy murdered civilian prisoners of war. And on at least one occasion he gave
his men all the pre-puberty girls to "do with as they pleased", which was after they had murdered
their parents and all family members. I am sure this was a great sadistical delight to him and
his troops. Men of God? No God damned way. Undoubtely men of Satan. Different time, different
standards. You are judging him with the modern "for show" standards, by which the "civilized"
nations, which have instituted them, do not abide. The US govt has killed 10s of millions of mostly
civilians (men, women, children) since the end of WWII, around the world, and now their clients
in the Middle East and Ukraine continue mass rapes and murder. David's crimes pale by comparison.
Those in Washington D.C. will never face justice for what they are doing, at least in this world,
nor do they repent at all. You can read about King David's repentance in the same Bible.
Anon ,
April 23, 2017 at 9:47 pm GMT
300 Words
@Incitatus I deeply apologize, Anon/Keith. I overestimated you. Mea colpa.
The fable was intended to illustrate the difference between embarrassing irrational instinct
(canine leg-humpers) and intelligent criticism. You excelled, once again, at the former, and proudly
so. Knock yourself out. Polish those table legs.
"I know I confuse you."
The only one confused is you, Anon, the evader of any record who still fancies the distinction
'Keith.' Are you afraid that a record of your remarks will easily indict you for your narrow agenda
and regurgitative screeds?
No matter.
You might look up Julius Streicher, your patron saint. A man so vile cardinal Nazis at Nüremberg
avoided him as if he would leave excrement on them in any prolonged contact. They knew best. Keith
,
"Are you afraid that a record of your remarks will easily endict you".
Indict me for wanting to bring down the elephant in the room? Did the Jewnited states already
pass hate speech laws, forbidding all criticism of Israel and for exposing Jewish power in America?
Did the Jewmerica pass laws criminalizing Holocaust Revisionism? Did I wake up in a country without
first amendment rights. Or is all of this wishful thinking on your part?
Should I be indicted for a hate crime for asking for an autopsy proving several million Jews
were gassed at the Auschwitz labor camps? Should I be hung because there is no autopsy evidence?
Maybe this is the purpose of the Unz Review. My Unz Review remarks will be use to retro actively
endict me for laws that weren't on the books when I made my forbidden remarks, just like the Germans
were endicted, convicted and hung at Nuremberg?
It is you and the other Hasbara trolls who have a defensive agenda and regurgitate
the same old name calling " Its a trick, the Jews always use it"
When the Jewish Bolshevik NeoCons take over America, I am convinced I will be one of the first
to be put in a NKVD Gulag. I also know my cell mates will be other patriotic Unz Review Americans
along with millions of others who want to bring down the elephant in the room.
I apologize for mentioning the forbidden news about Rabbis and Herpes and the Jewish Egypt
slave myth. I know this upset you. Both of these stories were news published in the Israeli Haaretz
News. I guess these stories were for Jews eyes only.
== quote ==
The lexicon of The Wall Street Journal and the business
sections of Time and Newsweek turned out to bear a striking
resemblance to Genesis, the Epistle to the Romans, and Saint
Augustine's City of God. Behind descriptions of market
reforms, monetary policy, and the convolutions of the Dow, I
gradually made out the pieces of a grand narrative about the
inner meaning of human history, why things had gone wrong,
and how to put them right. Theologians call these myths of
origin, legends of the fall, and doctrines of sin and
redemption. But here they were again, and in only thin
disguise: chronicles about the creation of wealth, the
seductive temptations of statism, captivity to faceless
economic cycles, and, ultimately, salvation through the
advent of free markets, with a small dose of ascetic belt
tightening along the way
== end of quote ==
In neo-classical economy market is the most efficient
distribution mechanism of goods and allocation of capital.
In neoliberalism it is more like giant artificial
intelligence machine which automatically comes to optimal
decision, that no single individual or, God forbid,
government is capable to archive.
"... The poor [under neoliberalism] are errant children who need to be molded. Conservatives may whine about the "nanny state" but what they really want to see is either the negligent mommy state or the abusive daddy state. They want to "help" the poor the way a drill instructor wants to help you learn to obey and kill. And remember: it's for your own good. Perhaps I am being unfair, but beneath the platitudes this seems to be the motivating ideology of too much of the contemporary governing class. ..."
The poor [under neoliberalism] are errant children who need to be molded. Conservatives may whine about the "nanny
state" but what they really want to see is either the negligent mommy state or the abusive daddy
state. They want to "help" the poor the way a drill instructor wants to help you learn to obey and
kill. And remember: it's for your own good. Perhaps I am being unfair, but beneath the platitudes
this seems to be the motivating ideology of too much of the contemporary governing class.
"... This is just one of many lucrative speaking gigs he plans to pursue, over and above the $65 million he and Michelle will receive for their memoirs. All in all, the Obamas can expect to haul in $200 million in the next fifteen years or so. ..."
"... "I mean, I do think at a certain point you've made enough money." - Obama, Apr 2010. It's useful to know that point appears to be upward of $200 million. ..."
AT LONG LAST, after kitesurfing with Virgin billionaire Richard Branson and Instagramming his
time aboard David Geffen's yacht in French Polynesia with Oprah Winfrey, Bruce Springsteen, and
Tom Hanks, former President Barack Obama has returned from vacation rested and ready to get back
to work. After months of seeing Donald Trump attempt to trash his legacy and destroy the modest
progressive gains he was able to achieve, liberals were getting restless for him to say something-anything-in
response.
"Why are we not hearing from him?" Sarah Kovner, an Upper West Side nonprofit consultant who
raised $1 million for Obama's campaigns, told the New York Times. "Democrats are desperate. Everything
that Trump is doing really requires a response."
But the sense of relief was short lived in the house of neoliberalism. Obama supporters succumbed
to a still-smoldering round of internecine squabbling after the news broke that their champion
would take a $400,000 check from Wall Street investment firm Cantor Fitzgerald to give a speech
on health care this September. This is just one of many lucrative speaking gigs he plans to
pursue, over and above the $65 million he and Michelle will receive for their memoirs. All in
all, the Obamas can expect to haul in $200 million in the next fifteen years or so.
Vox's Matt Yglesias led the charge among disenchanted Obama supporters, with an attention-grabbing
post under the wildly exaggerated headline "Obama's $400,000 Wall Street speaking fee will undermine
everything he believes in." Yglesias argued that during this trying period of rising right-wing
populism, liberal leaders need to maintain higher standards of personal ethics. Joe Trippi, who
made his career working for the former Vermont governor–turned–thoroughly compromised lobbyist
Howard Dean, agreed about the optics. "Every president since I've been active in politics immediately
got whacked for big speechifying," he told the Times. "I can't remember it not happening. And
they never look good."
Daniel Gross led the pro-Obama counterforces with the Slate-pitchiest of Slate hot takes, tut-tutting
the "absurd double-standard" and the rampant "misunderstanding of the market forces animating
the industries in which Obama now works." Gross argues, somewhat persuasively, that such buckraking
hasn't hurt liberalism in the past, and concludes, a good deal less persuasively, that it shouldn't
do so now. (The piece ran with a typically Slate-ified, everyone-calm-down sub-head: "If the only
thing keeping progressivism afloat is the virtue-signaling of our best leaders, we're in trouble."
Uh, Earth to Gross: we're in trouble.) He concludes by arguing that Obama's accepting the fee
was actually redistributive and populist: He would be taking money from the low-tax folks at Cantor
Fitzgerald and pay about 40 percent of it in income tax. This speaking gig, in short, was straight
out of Robin Hood's own playbook; it would hurt the poor not to take it!
Both sides of the debate are clearly right about two things: The Obamas don't need the money;
and they don't seem the type to fall to Clintonesque greed. But the mistake in the hubbub over
the Cantor speech is to see the decision as a bug in contemporary Democratic politics, rather
than a feature. It may well dismay Yglesias to be reminded of this, but insofar as Obama has made
a return to politics, it is not to fight the scourge of Trump-inflected populism. Obama has no
intention of violating the rules of the presidential fraternity, in which departing presidents
speak no ill of their replacements. Rather, Obama wants to show that the Democratic Party has
been, and will continue to be, open for business to all comers. He is, in effect, marking off
his version of center-left progressivism in order to stave off, once and for all, an emboldened
Sanders-led insurgency from his left.
Feel the Spurn
Lest we forget, Obama's genius lay in being able to speak credibly to both Wall Street and
Main Street. Back in 2006, well before his race for the presidency, Ken Silverstein wrote the
definitive story on the Obama money machine for Harper's Magazine. In 2008, Obama set records
for Wall Street donations-a point that Hillary Clinton cited in defense of her own lavishly compensated
stint behind a Goldman Sachs-branded podium. Obama did it and he passed super-tough financial
regulations all the same-so why not Hillary too? After all, none of his regulatory prevented him
from going on to raise a boatload of money from Wall Street in 2012. This, in short, is business
as usual as it should be: both lucrative and free of moral censure!
Obama's winning 2008 message, you may recall, was that there was not a filthy-rich and dirt-poor
America, or a corporate multinational and sole-proprietor America, or a full-time-with-benefits
and freelance-contract-gig America, but the United States of America. (Anyway, I think that's
how it went.) And he was blessed with the preternatural ability to speak convincingly to both
sides. As the son of a Kenyan immigrant with a Muslim middle name raised in a single-mother household
and as a South Side Chicago community organizer, he could address the oppressed as a sympathizer.
And as the credentialed Ivy Leaguer, former Harvard Law Review editor, and fawning admirer of
the Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers brand of deregulatory Democratic economics, he could rub
elbows with elites.
In this light, we shouldn't look at Obama's decision to take Cantor Fitzgerald's check as a
risky venture that could alienate certain Democratic constituencies and feed into the anti-establishment
populist groundswell. Instead, Obama is positively affirming his ties to Wall Street and corporate
interests: Unlike the Sanders left, I am willing to work with you, and so will the Democratic
Party, so long as I have sway.
Even when he was luxuriating in sunny beach climes with the global elite, Obama leveraged his
considerable post-presidential clout to his former labor secretary Tom Perez put in charge of
the Democratic National Committee, successfully smiting the insurgent candidacy of the Sanders-backed,
and Sanders-backing, challenger, U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison. What was at stake in that contest became
clear on April 18 when Perez and Sanders appeared on MSNBC's "All In with Chris Hayes" during
their "unity tour." The new DNC chair made it abundantly clear that he wasn't "feeling the Bern."
While the earnest host tried to goad Perez into agreeing with Sanders that the Democratic Party
had to finger the ruling billionaire class and say "your greed is destroying this country," he
refused to take the bait.
Obama centrists don't have to worry just about Sanders' popularity. Elizabeth Warren, who is
increasingly appearing as a plausible presidential candidate for 2020, has also risen as an economic
populist critic of the former president. She has been perfectly willing to challenge Obama by
name, saying he was wrong to claim at a commencement address at Rutgers last year that "the system
isn't as rigged as you think." "No, President Obama, the system is as rigged as we think," she
writes in her new book This Fight Is Our Fight. "In fact, it's worse than most Americans realize."
She even went so far as to say she was "troubled" by Obama's willingness to take his six-figure
speaking fee from Wall Street. There is indeed a fight brewing, but it's not Obama v. Trump, but
Obama v. Warren-Sanders.
And this is where the real difficulty lies for the Democrats. The trouble with the popular
and eminently reasonable Sanders-Warren platform-reasonable for all those, Obama and Clinton included,
who express dismay over our country's rampaging levels of Gilded Age-style inequality-is that
it alienates the donor class that butters the DNC's bread. With Clinton's downfall, and with the
popularity of economic populism rising in left circles, Obama has to step in and reassert his
more centrist brand of Democratic politics. And what better way to do so than by conspicuously
cashing a check from those who would fund said politics?
Moderating the Millennials
Obama's return to the spotlight sought a more noble purpose: He was launching his work at the
Obama Foundation. This enterprise would be dedicated to, among other goals, "training and elevating
a new generation of political leaders in America," according to Obama's post-presidency senior
adviser Eric Schultz. Here, too, we do well to note just what leaders are likely to prosper under
Obama's guidance, and which ones will be denied backstage lanyards at his foundation conclaves.
It takes no great leap of the imagination to surmise that Obama is keen to see his party led away
from the left insurgency brewing among the Democrats' millennial constituency.
Obama hagiographers would inform you that his campaign was noteworthy for its facility with
young voters and activists, thanks to his innovative use of online mobilizing and his Kennedy-esque
charisma. But lost in these sunny encomiums is the rise of anti-establishment youth activism that
flowered under his presidency. One could trace the alternate saga of the Obama presidency in a
three-act tragedy of millennial activist outrage: Occupy Wall Street, Black Lives Matter, and
Feel the Bern.
This tension was always there during the Obama presidency for those paying attention. Consider
this 2015 KPC article about Obama's determination to answer the frustrations of BLM activists
by making inequality the focus of his post-presidential foundation. He announced his intentions
at a speech at Lehman College in the Bronx and during an appearance on the Late Show with David
Letterman. "We're going to invest in you before you have problems with the police, before there's
the kind of crisis we see in Baltimore," he assured aggrieved communities of color from the unlikely
platform of the Ed Sullivan Theater. He also brought his inequality gospel to Manhattan's big-money
donors, as the AP noted in an unusually arch dispatch:
He tied the call to justice with an economic message for the sixty donors who paid $10,000
to see him at an expansive, art-filled Upper East Side apartment-including actor Wendell Pierce,
who played a Baltimore police detective working in drug-ridden projects on The Wire. . . . Obama
later held a discussion with about thirty donors contributing up to $33,400. That event was closed
to the media.
In this light, Obama's outreach to young leaders and activists isn't much of legacy-burnishing
of President Hope-and-Change. Instead, it looks distinctly like a counterinsurgency effort to
mobilize more moderate forces among millennial Democrats and tame their alleged potential to spin
out of control. How do we clone more market-friendly activists like Deray Mckesson and quarantine
the pro-Bernie DSA youth and their bloom of red-rosed Twitter accounts? Obama hopes Silicon Valley
can help figure this out. Indeed, he's so committed to achieving this goal that he's willing to
become a venture capitalist to do so.
I fully understand Obama believes TANSTAAFL, just like I do.
What evidence do you have for your free lunch political-economics?
If your free lunch polices are so fantastic, why don't you start businesses that pay high wages,
high taxes, and charge low prices with you as business owner having zero income and zero wealth?
Why don't you do everything with zero fossil fuel burning content, going from place to place
by walking on unpaved land (concrete and asphalt pavement are fossil fuel intensive) or by flying
in a wood frame plane power by burning wood with the metal produced by charcoal from wood?
After all, it's neoliberal to require paying for businesses, wages, taxes, capital in the price
of goods and services.
It's neoliberal to believe burning fossil fuels is the only feasible way to build capital assets,
like cars and pavement.
Obama is obviously a neoliberal for taking action that will result in paying $160,000 more in
taxes. Real progressives know that paying taxes is not progressive, and Obama should make sure
he never pays higher taxes by never doing any work.
What is worse, if Obama gives the $400,000 to his foundation to help pay Chicago workers to
build his literary, he will dodge the $160,000 in taxes, but then burden those construction workers
with higher taxes compared to living on welfare in government housing built 50 years ago in the
neoliberal tax and spend era.
Clearly true progressives understand as true conservatives do, no one should ever work,mget
paid to work, and if lucky enough to be paid to be in Congress, you must never do any work. The
disasterous neoliberal bill passed only because of Democrats fails to shutdown government, fails
to end taxes on the wages paid by government to doctors and nurses who are paid by insurers with
insurance paid for by workers and government taxes on workers.
The only good government for true progressives and conservatives is government that does absolutely
nothing. Only when government does nothing can the perfection of both conservative and progressive
policies be preserved. Passing anything always costs people and anything that costs is neoliberal,
and thus it's absolutely not conservative or progressive.
True conservative policies make everything free.
True progressive policies make everything free.
But neoliberalism forces every law to have costs, so every accomplishment by Congress is totally
not progressive or conservative, but evil neoliberal.
"This is just one of many lucrative speaking gigs he plans to pursue, over and above the $65 million
he and Michelle will receive for their memoirs. All in all, the Obamas can expect to haul in $200
million in the next fifteen years or so."
"I mean, I do think at a certain point you've made enough money." - Obama, Apr 2010.
It's useful to know that point appears to be upward of $200 million.
== quote ==
The lexicon of The Wall Street Journal and the business
sections of Time and Newsweek turned out to bear a striking
resemblance to Genesis, the Epistle to the Romans, and Saint
Augustine's City of God. Behind descriptions of market
reforms, monetary policy, and the convolutions of the Dow, I
gradually made out the pieces of a grand narrative about the
inner meaning of human history, why things had gone wrong,
and how to put them right.
Theologians call these myths of
origin, legends of the fall, and doctrines of sin and
redemption. But here they were again, and in only thin
disguise: chronicles about the creation of wealth, the
seductive temptations of statism, captivity to faceless
economic cycles, and, ultimately, salvation through the
advent of free markets, with a small dose of ascetic belt
tightening along the way
== end of quote ==
In neo-classical economy market is the most efficient
distribution mechanism of goods and allocation of capital.
In neoliberalism it is more like giant artificial
intelligence machine which automatically comes to optimal
decision, that no single individual or, God forbid,
government is capable to archive.
Workers in the so-called 'gig economy' face heightening conditions of precarity and exploitation.
From delivery couriers to taxi drivers,
this series has shown that conditions of work are increasingly deleterious and show little sign
of improvement.
To combat this, innovative new strategies of organisation and mobilisation have been developed.
New, and more direct, tactics of trade union struggle have been at the heart of
successful disputes led by the Independent Workers Union of Great Britain in London and via spontaneous
strikes by Uber drivers and others across
the USA ,
the UK ,
France , and
beyond .
As yet, there has been less traction for these forms of the gig economy in Latin America. This
may be about to change, as according to a
recent Bloomberg report Uber HQ is responding to recent negative press attention by turning to
the region as its new 'Promised Land'.
Three reasons may explain why the gig economy has had little success so far in the region. First,
it relies on a business model that requires particular market conditions, namely a high volume of
relatively high-income consumers living alongside significant surplus labour. Such conditions are
not as widespread in Latin America as in Europe and North America.
sorry to be a debbie downer--Uber-Lyft drivers have been trying to organize (both work slowdowns
and unions) for years with no success outside of Seattle, Austin, NYC. (wouldn't count Denver)
(see the organization forums at uberpeople dot net)
problems: workers' don't have the capital to organize a viable alternative unless there is
a very pro-driver local govt/regulatory system (eg, Austin). Austin is literally one of the few
municipalities who didn't buy Uber-Lyft's Orwellian it-aint-a-cab-it's "rideshare" nonsense.
Yes, while the app can be replicated--Uber's moats are ultracheap/subsidized fares, regulatory
capture, a global network and user inertia as Uber is the go-to app.
More problems: atomized workforce; lots of part-timers who have different incentives v. full-timers;
(sorry if this sounds awful) desperate or innumerate natives or recent immigrants who don't mind
working at/or below minimum wage as it's > $0; drivers are commodities easily replaced, lack of
support/indifference from customers; customers are addicted to low fares and don't want to care
about the externalities (like Americans are with cheap meat); people had a low opinion of the
taxi industry.
Bottom line; many drivers have been thinking these problems for a while it's David v. Goliath
and his lobbyists and his investor cash hoarde.
Cite: I was a driver who completed literally thousands of rides.
Gig workers won't organize into unions – until they do. Something will spark it, it will happen
first in Seattle and the other places where the organizing infrastructure is in place, and then
it will happen lots of other places all at once, well ahead of any drawn out organizing activity.
This is how it happens, how it always happens.
Because we have an existing private sector labor law that says independent contractors are
not employees, the legal part will be awkward and confusing. But when the spark is lit, that won't
really matter. The law will, eventually, accommodate itself to the reality.
The only question is whether this happens sometime in the next two years or in the next twenty
years.
Actually, I gave up reading the article after the first paragraph (skipped right to the always
insightful comments section). Anyone who uses the words 'precarity" (I don't even think that's
real word) and "deleterious" in the first two sentences is someone whose clarity of thinking is
immediately suspect. Inflated academic jargon has become the death rattle of the university intellectual
class. A long time ago Joan Didion hit the nail on the head: "As it happens, I am still committed
to the idea that the ability to think for one's self depends upon one's mastery of the language."
Readers might like to know that Davis Sloan Wilson is a fervent champion
of the importance of group selection in evolution, a possible mechanism
(differential survival among groups, distinct in genetically-based
socially-mediated characters) often deployed as an 'explanation' for
altruistic behaviours. He also sees an understanding of group selection as
crucial to the solution of myriad human social ills: "Evolutionary science,"
Wilson argues, "will eventually prove so useful on a daily basis that we
will wonder how we survived without it. I'm here to make that day come
sooner rather than later, starting with my own city of Binghamton [NY]."
After decades of effort, he has so far failed to make many converts, and
the prevailing view is that, while group selection is indeed a mechanism
that might possibly operate in some circumstances, those circumstances are
generally very limited in most organisms, and, moreover, the strength of
group selection will almost always be much lower than that operating among
individuals. As Jerry Coyne put it in a commentary on Wilson's
"Neighbourhood Project" in the NYT: "Group selection isn't widely accepted
by evolutionists for several reasons. First, it's not an efficient way to
select for traits, like altruistic behavior, that are supposed to be
detrimental to the individual but good for the group. Groups divide to form
other groups much less often than organisms reproduce to form other
organisms, so group selection for altruism would be unlikely to override the
tendency of each group to quickly lose its altruists through natural
selection favoring cheaters. Further, little evidence exists that selection
on groups has promoted the evolution of any trait. Finally, other, more
plausible evolutionary forces, like direct selection on individuals for
reciprocal support, could have made humans prosocial." see
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/11/books/review/the-neighborhood-project-by-david-sloan-wilson-book-review.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all
"... [Neo]liberalism that needs monsters to destroy can never politically engage with its enemies. It can never understand those enemies as political actors, making calculations, taking advantage of opportunities, and responding to constraints. It can never see in those enemies anything other than a black hole of motivation, a cesspool where reason goes to die. ..."
"... Hence the refusal of empathy for Trump's supporters. Insofar as it marks a demand that we not abandon antiracist principle and practice for the sake of winning over a mythicized white working class, the refusal is unimpeachable. ..."
"... Such a [neo]liberalism becomes dependent on the very thing it opposes, with a tepid mix of neoliberal markets and multicultural morals getting much-needed spice from a terrifying right. Hillary Clinton ran hard on the threat of Trump, as if his presence were enough to authorize her presidency. ..."
"... Clinton waged this campaign on the belief that her neoliberalism of fear could defeat the ethnonationalism of the right. ..."
"... In the novel, what begins as a struggle against inherited privilege results in the consolidation of a new ruling class that derives its legitimacy from superior merit. This class becomes, within a few generations, a hereditary aristocracy in its own right. Sequestered within elite institutions, people of high intelligence marry among themselves, passing along their high social position and superior genes to their progeny. Terminal inequality is the result. The gradual shift from inheritance to merit, Young writes, made "nonsense of all their loose talk of the equality of man": ..."
"... Losing every young person of promise to the meritocracy had deprived the working class of its prospective leaders, rendering it unable to coordinate a movement to manifest its political will. ..."
"... A policy of benign neglect of immigration laws invites into our country a casualized workforce without any leverage, one that competes with the native-born and destroys whatever leverage the latter have to negotiate better terms for themselves. The policy is a subsidy to American agribusiness, meatpacking plants, restaurants, bars, and construction companies, and to American families who would not otherwise be able to afford the outsourcing of childcare and domestic labor that the postfeminist, dual-income family requires. At the same time, a policy of free trade pits native-born workers against foreign ones content to earn pennies on the dollar of their American counterparts. ..."
"... Four decades of neoliberal globalization have cleaved our country into two hostile classes, and the line cuts across the race divide. On one side, college students credential themselves for meritocratic success. On the other, the white working class increasingly comes to resemble the black underclass in indices of social disorganization. On one side of the divide, much energy is expended on the eradication of subtler inequalities; on the other side, an equality of immiseration increasingly obtains. ..."
[Neo]liberalism that needs monsters to destroy can never politically engage with its enemies.
It can never understand those enemies as political actors, making calculations, taking advantage
of opportunities, and responding to constraints. It can never see in those enemies anything other
than a black hole of motivation, a cesspool where reason goes to die.
Hence the refusal of empathy for Trump's supporters. Insofar as it marks a demand that we
not abandon antiracist principle and practice for the sake of winning over a mythicized white working
class, the refusal is unimpeachable. But like the know-nothing disavowal of knowledge after
9/11, when explanations of terrorism were construed as exonerations of terrorism, the refusal of
empathy since 11/9 is a will to ignorance. Far simpler to imagine Trump voters as possessed by a
kind of demonic intelligence, or anti-intelligence, transcending all the rules of the established
order. Rather than treat Trump as the outgrowth of normal politics and traditional institutions -
it is the Electoral College, after all, not some beating heart of darkness, that sent Trump to the
White House - there is a disabling insistence that he and his forces are like no political formation
we've seen. By encouraging us to see only novelty in his monstrosity, analyses of this kind may prove
as crippling as the neocons' assessment of Saddam's regime. That, too, was held to be like no tyranny
we'd seen, a despotism where the ordinary rules of politics didn't apply and knowledge of the subject
was therefore useless.
Such a [neo]liberalism becomes dependent on the very thing it opposes, with a tepid mix of
neoliberal markets and multicultural morals getting much-needed spice from a terrifying right. Hillary
Clinton ran hard on the threat of Trump, as if his presence were enough to authorize her presidency.
Where Sanders promised to change the conversation, to make the battlefield a contest between a
multicultural neoliberalism and a multiracial social democracy, Clinton sought to keep the battlefield
as it has been for the past quarter-century. In this single respect, she can claim a substantial
victory. It's no accident that one of the most spectacular confrontations since the election pitted
the actors of Hamilton against the tweets of Trump. These fixed, frozen positions - high
on rhetoric, low on action - offer an almost perfect tableau of our ongoing gridlock of recrimination.
Clinton waged this campaign on the belief that her neoliberalism of fear could defeat the
ethnonationalism of the right. Let us not make the same mistake twice. Let us not be addicted
to "the drug of danger," as Athena says in the Oresteia, to "the dream of the enemy that
has to be crushed, like a herb, before [we] can smell freedom."
The term "meritocracy" became shorthand for a desirable societal ideal soon after it was coined
by the British socialist Sir Michael Young. But Young had originally used it to describe a dystopian
future. His 1958 satirical novel, The Rise of the Meritocracy, imagines the creation and growth of
a national system of intelligence testing, which identifies talented young people from every stratum
of society in order to install them in special schools, where they are groomed to make the best use
possible of their innate advantages.
In the novel, what begins as a struggle against inherited privilege results in the consolidation
of a new ruling class that derives its legitimacy from superior merit. This class becomes, within
a few generations, a hereditary aristocracy in its own right. Sequestered within elite institutions,
people of high intelligence marry among themselves, passing along their high social position and
superior genes to their progeny. Terminal inequality is the result. The gradual shift from inheritance
to merit, Young writes, made "nonsense of all their loose talk of the equality of man":
Men, after all, are notable not for the equality, but for the inequality, of their endowment.
Once all the geniuses are amongst the elite, and all the morons are amongst the workers, what meaning
can equality have? What ideal can be upheld except the principle of equal status for equal intelligence?
What is the purpose of abolishing inequalities in nurture except to reveal and make more pronounced
the inescapable inequalities of Nature?
I thought about this book often in the years before the crack-up of November 2016. In early 2015,
the Harvard sociologist Robert Putnam published a book that seemed to tell as history the same story
that Young had written as prophecy. Our Kids: The American Dream in Crisis opens with an evocation
of the small town of Port Clinton, Ohio, where Putnam grew up in the 1950s - a "passable embodiment
of the American Dream, a place that offered decent opportunity for all the kids in town, whatever
their background." Port Clinton was, as Putnam is quick to concede, a nearly all-white town in a
pre-feminist and pre-civil-rights America, and it was marked by the unequal distribution of power
that spurred those movements into being. Yet it was also a place of high employment, strong unions,
widespread homeownership, relative class equality, and generally intact two-parent families. Everyone
knew one another by their first names and almost everyone was headed toward a better future; nearly
three quarters of all the classmates Putnam surveyed fifty years later had surpassed their parents
in both educational attainment and wealth.
When he revisited it in 2013, the town had become a kind of American nightmare. In the 1970s,
the industrial base entered a terminal decline, and the town's economy declined with it. Downtown
shops closed. Crime, delinquency, and drug use skyrocketed. In 1993, the factory that had offered
high-wage blue-collar employment finally shuttered for good. By 2010, the rate of births to unwed
mothers had risen to 40 percent. Two years later, the average worker in the county "was paid roughly
16 percent less in inflation-adjusted dollars than his or her grandfather in the early 1970s."
Young's novel ends with an editorial note informing readers that the fictional author of the text
had been killed in a riot that was part of a violent populist insurrection against the meritocracy,
an insurrection that the author had been insisting would pose no lasting threat to the social order.
Losing every young person of promise to the meritocracy had deprived the working class of its
prospective leaders, rendering it unable to coordinate a movement to manifest its political will.
"Without intelligence in their heads," he wrote, "the lower classes are never more menacing
than a rabble."
We are in the midst of a global insurrection against ruling elites. In the wake of the most destructive
of the blows recently delivered, a furious debate arose over whether those who supported Donald Trump
deserve empathy or scorn. The answer, of course, is that they deserve scorn for resorting to so depraved
and false a solution to their predicament - and empathy for the predicament itself. (And not just
because advances in technology are likely to make their predicament far more widely shared.) What
is owed to them is not the lachrymose pity reserved for victims (though they have suffered greatly)
but rather a practical appreciation of how their antagonism to the policies that determined the course
of this campaign - mass immigration and free trade - was a fully political antagonism that was disregarded
for decades, to our collective detriment.
A policy of benign neglect of immigration laws invites into our country a casualized workforce
without any leverage, one that competes with the native-born and destroys whatever leverage the latter
have to negotiate better terms for themselves. The policy is a subsidy to American agribusiness,
meatpacking plants, restaurants, bars, and construction companies, and to American families who would
not otherwise be able to afford the outsourcing of childcare and domestic labor that the postfeminist,
dual-income family requires. At the same time, a policy of free trade pits native-born workers against
foreign ones content to earn pennies on the dollar of their American counterparts.
In lieu of the social-democratic provision of childcare and other services of domestic support,
we have built a privatized, ad hoc system of subsidies based on loose border enforcement - in effect,
the nation cutting a deal with itself at the expense of the life chances of its native-born working
class. In lieu of an industrial policy that would preserve intact the economic foundation of their
lives, we rapidly dismantled our industrial base in pursuit of maximal aggregate economic growth,
with no concern for the uneven distribution of the harms and the benefits. Some were enriched hugely
by these policies: the college-educated bankers, accountants, consultants, technologists, lawyers,
economists, and corporate executives who built a supply chain that reached to the countries where
we shipped the jobs. Eventually, of course, many of these workers learned that both political parties
regarded them as fungible factors of production, readily discarded in favor of a machine or a migrant
willing to bunk eight to a room.
Four decades of neoliberal globalization have cleaved our country into two hostile classes,
and the line cuts across the race divide. On one side, college students credential themselves for
meritocratic success. On the other, the white working class increasingly comes to resemble the black
underclass in indices of social disorganization. On one side of the divide, much energy is expended
on the eradication of subtler inequalities; on the other side, an equality of immiseration increasingly
obtains.
Even before the ruling elite sent the proletariat off to fight a misbegotten war, even before
it wrecked the world economy through heedless lending, even before its politicians rescued those
responsible for the crisis while allowing working-class victims of all colors to sink, the working
class knew that it had been sacrificed to the interests of those sitting atop the meritocratic ladder.
The hostility was never just about differing patterns in taste and consumption. It was also about
one class prospering off the suffering of another. We learned this year that political interests
that go neglected for decades invariably summon up demagogues who exploit them for their own gain.
The demagogues will go on to betray their supporters and do enormous harm to others.
If we are to arrest the global descent into barbarism, we will have to understand the political
antagonism at the heart of the meritocratic project and seek a new kind of politics. If we choose
to neglect the valid interests of the working class, Trump will prove in retrospect to have been
a pale harbinger of even darker nightmares to come.
"... Prescott Bush and the Smedley Butler " Business Plot " Bush's Grandfather Planned Fascist Coup In America Nazis, he has praised
Hitler, he talked last night in ... ..."
I wonder why this is never mentioned in history classes in the US.
And I wonder why the US media has not frankly discussed what
happened. Is it because it would embarrass powerful figures still on the scene today?
I wonder why there is no frank discussion of the Wall Street interests who helped to finance the fascists in Europe, including
the National Socialists in Germany, even during the 1940's?
When the going gets tough, the moneyed interests seem to invariably reach for fascism to maintain the status quo.
We keep too many things hidden 'for the sake of the system.' This obsession with secrecy is all too often the cover to hide misdeeds,
incompetency, abuses of the system, and outright crimes.
If some things cannot bear the light of day, the chances are pretty good that they can remain a festering sore and a moral hazard
for the future.
Here is a BBC documentary about what had happened.
Mirrored from TheRapeOfJustice (exceptional channel for large library of relevant historical broadcasts and documentaries)
http://www.youtube.com/user ...
Prescott
Bush and the Smedley Butler "Business Plot" Bush's Grandfather Planned Fascist
Coup In America Nazis, he has praised Hitler, he talked last night in ...
"In some ways I've been disheartened by the election of Trump
and the fact so many fellow citizens would vote for him. "
I disagree. Voting for Trump was not so much voting for Trump
as voting against Hillary, voting against the Washington
neoliberal/neocon establishment.
Trump was just a flag bearers of the discontent against
neoliberalism in the USA (and first of all destruction of
jobs and redistribution of wealth up ) and neoliberal
globalization as well as never ending wars for the expansion
of neoliberal empire led by the USA.
And it is under him part of the protest movement coalesce.
In this sense his success mirror the success of Bernie
Sanders, and I believe a part of voters who intended to vote
for Bernie voted for Trump as "the lesser evil",
As one respondent, a 34-year-old male IT technician, put
it: "Bernie and Trump agree a lot on healthcare, Iraq war,
campaign finance and trade. I really want to move on to
something new, new ideas from outside the box. Maybe Donald
Trump can provide that."
The fact that such discontent is appropriated by far right
in not new historically. And the fact that Trump was forced,
or from the beginning intended to betray his supporters is
nothing new. This is a standard practice of both Democratic
Party since Clinton. Although it is too early to tell, it
might well be that Trump is already neutered and we got
Hillary II.
"... "A plan of business tax cuts that has no offsets, to use some very esoteric language, is not a thing," Callas said. "It's not a real thing. And people can come up with whatever plans they want. Not only can that not pass Congress, it cannot even begin to move through Congress day one. And there are political reasons for that. No. 1, members wouldn't vote for it. But there are also procedural, statutory procedural, legal reasons why that can't happen." ..."
"... Here is a data point for folks. A corporate rate cut that is sunset after three years will increase the deficit in the second decade. We know this. Not 10 years. Three years. You could not do a straight-up, unoffset, three-year corporate rate cut in reconciliation. The rules prohibit it. You might be able to do two years. A two-year corporate rate cut-I'll defer to the economists on the panel-would have virtually no economic effect. It would not alter business decisions. It would not cause anyone to build a factory. It would not stop any inversions or acquisitions of U.S. companies by foreign companies. It would just be dropping cash out of helicopters onto corporate headquarters. ..."
Donald Trump's Massive Corporate Tax Cut Literally Cannot Pass Congress
APRIL 25 2017 6:04 PM
By Jordan Weissmann
Donald Trump hasn't even finished writing his tax plan yet, and yet it already looks poised
to meet a humiliating death on Capitol Hill.
Like most things our Cheeto-in-chief touches, the package of tax cuts that the White House
is preparing to unveil on Wednesday is shaping up to be a gaudy money-loser. According to the
Wall Street Journal, Trump has told his staff to work up a scheme that would cut the top corporate
tax rate by more than half, from 35 percent to just 15 percent, without worrying too much about
how to pay for it. "During a meeting in the Oval Office last week, Mr. Trump told staff he wants
a massive tax cut to sell to the American public," the Journal reports. "He told aides it was
less important to him that such a plan could add to the federal budget deficit."
Would such plan waste trillions of dollars padding the pockets of Walmart and Exxon's shareholders?
Absolutely! Would that stop Republicans from supporting it? Probably not! But unfortunately for
Trump, his plan to slash corporate tax bills has a fatal flaw: It's probably forbidden under the
Senate's rules, and thus entirely incapable of passing Congress.
At least, so suggest some recent comments by George Callas, who serves as senior tax counsel
to House Speaker Paul Ryan. Speaking at a panel event in Washington last week, which was previously
reported on by the New Republic's Brian Beutler, Callas dismissed the idea of passing a corporate
tax cut without paying for it in pretty much the harshest terms a tax wonk can muster, calling
it a "magic unicorn" at one point. Feisty!
"A plan of business tax cuts that has no offsets, to use some very esoteric language, is not
a thing," Callas said. "It's not a real thing. And people can come up with whatever plans they
want. Not only can that not pass Congress, it cannot even begin to move through Congress day one.
And there are political reasons for that. No. 1, members wouldn't vote for it. But there are also
procedural, statutory procedural, legal reasons why that can't happen."
Those reasons have to do with the Senate's budget reconciliation process, which Republicans
will have to rely on in order to move any tax bill into law, assuming Democrats won't sign on.
The procedure prevents filibusters on legislation related to taxes and spending, allowing them
to pass on a bare majority vote. But it comes with a catch: Any legislation passed through reconciliation
can't increase the deficit outside of the 10-year budget window. This restriction, known as the
Byrd rule, is actually written into federal statute.
One way to get around the Byrd rule is to make tax cuts temporary. The budget-busting Bush
tax cuts were set to expire after 10 years for precisely that purpose, and as it has become increasingly
obvious that Republicans won't be able to agree on a plan to reform the tax code without increasing
the deficit, many have assumed they'd borrow from that old playbook.
But that only really works for individual tax cuts. During his appearance, a very exasperated
Callas explained that, in order to satisfy the Byrd rule, corporate tax cuts would probably have
to sunset after just two years, making them utterly pointless. Here's how he put it:
Here is a data point for folks. A corporate rate cut that is sunset after three years will
increase the deficit in the second decade. We know this. Not 10 years. Three years. You could
not do a straight-up, unoffset, three-year corporate rate cut in reconciliation. The rules prohibit
it. You might be able to do two years. A two-year corporate rate cut-I'll defer to the economists
on the panel-would have virtually no economic effect. It would not alter business decisions. It
would not cause anyone to build a factory. It would not stop any inversions or acquisitions of
U.S. companies by foreign companies. It would just be dropping cash out of helicopters onto corporate
headquarters.
Tell us how you really feel, George.
Now, perhaps this is just the disaffected ranting of a tax-policy professional who doesn't
want the rest of the GOP to abandon his boss's own tax reform plan. Maybe Mitch McConnell could
come up with some kind of parliamentary maneuver to make Trump mega–corporate cuts a reality.
But it's awfully strong language, and signals that Trump's 15 percent corporate tax rate may even
be DOA in Paul Ryan's House if he can't find a way to pay for it.
As usual, the White House is doing a bang-up job.
* * *
For those interested, here's a full transcript of Callas' remarks. They're pretty delightful.
I want to pick up on what Doug has said a couple of times talking both about the constraints of
reconciliation rules as well as, Mark, you mentioning whether the White House might come out with
a plan that has no offsets. It's a very, very important point here. A plan of business tax cuts
that has no offsets, to use some very esoteric language, is not a thing. It's not a real thing.
And people can come up with whatever plans they want. Not only can that not pass Congress, it
cannot even begin to move through congress day one. And there are political reasons for that.
Number one, members wouldn't vote for it. But there are also procedural, statutory procedural,
legal reasons why that can't happen. Doug and Mark were both talking about reconciliation. I want
to pick up on that and flesh that out a little bit because it's very, very important.
There is, I call it a magic unicorn running around, and I think one of the biggest threats
to the timeline on tax reform is the continued survival of magic unicorns. People saying "Well
why don't we do this instead?" when this is actually something that cannot be done. As long as
that exists , it's hard to move forward by getting people to go through with what the speaker
refers to as the stages of grief of tax reform where you have to come to the realization that
there are tough choices that have to be made and you cannot escape those tough choices.
What the reconciliation rules say-they don't say that tax cuts have to sunset in ten years.
They say that you cannot have a deficit increase beyond the 10-year window. Now, as Doug explained,
if you have permanent tax reform that is fully offset with base broadening forever, you're are
fine. You don't have to to have anything sunset under the reconciliation rules. You can have permanent
tax cuts that are paid for in the out years. If you have legislation that has no offsets, no base
broadening, so it's just tax cuts, you either have to get Democrats to support it, which they
will not, or you have to do it through reconciliation so that you can do it on a partisan basis
with only Republican votes. Again, reconciliation says you cannot increase the deficit after 10
years. Here is a data point for folks. A corporate rate cut that is sunset after three years will
increase the deficit in the second decade. We know this. Not 10 years. Three years. You could
not do a straight up, unoffset, three-year corporate rate cut in reconciliation. The rules prohibit
it. You might be able to do two years. A two year corporate rate cut-I'll defer to the economists
on the panel-would have virtually no economic effect. It would not alter business decisions. It
would not cause anyone to build a factory. It would not stop any inversions or acquisitions of
U.S. companies by foreign companies. It would not cause anyone to restructure their supply chain.
It would just be dropping cash out of helicopters onto corporate headquarters.
I sort of wonder why he is against estate taxes (although I prefer to rename them inheritance
taxes). I think they are IN GENERAL a good thing. Or does he think relatives are always better
managers?
Of course like the ideas behind progressive consumption taxes in general, I regard them as
requiring company taxes, land taxes and inheritance taxes for balance. Growing inequality of wealth
is a long term threat that should not be ignored.
It doesn't seem healthy to have a system that only functions well if other conditions are favorable.
Given uncertainty in general, anything saddling young people with debts that they may not be able
to repay is a bad thing, not just for those young people, but for the whole society. Society should
be looking to decrease economic security, not increase it.
Yes, it's Groundhog Day. Republicans are once again claiming that tax cuts will spur enough
economic growth to pay for themselves. Well, old-timers like myself remember Round I and Round
II when we tried this grand experiment. It didn't work.
Round I was under President Reagan when he put in big tax cuts at the start of the presidency.
These tax cuts were supposed to lead to a growth surge which would cover the costs of the tax
cuts. Not quite, the deficit soared and the debt to GDP ratio went from 25.5 percent of GDP at
the end of 1980 to 39.8 percent of GDP at the end of 1988. (It rose further to 46.6 percent of
GDP by the end of the first President Bush's term.)
Round II were the tax cuts put in place by George W. Bush. At the start of the Bush II administration
the ratio of debt to GDP was 33.6 percent. It rose to 39.3 percent by the end of 2008.
In addition to these two big lab experiments with the national economy, we also have a large
body of economic research on the issue. This research is well summarized in a study * done by
the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) back in 2005 when it was headed by Douglas Holtz-Eakin,
a Republican economist who had served as the head of George W. Bush's Council of Economic Advisers.
I commented ** on this study a few years back:
"In a model that examined the effects of a 10% reduction in all federal individual income tax
rates, the economy was slightly larger in the first five years after the tax cut and slightly
smaller in the five years that followed. In this case, using dynamic scoring showed the tax cut
costing more revenue than in the methodology the CBO currently uses.
"The CBO did find that dynamic scoring of the tax cut could have some positive effects if coupled
with other policies. In one set of models, policymakers assumed that taxes were raised after 10
years. This led the government to raise more tax revenue in the first 10 years because people
knew that they would be taxed more later, so they worked more."
In short, Holtz-Eakin considered the extent to which tax cuts could plausibly be said to boost
growth and found that they had very limit impact on the deficit. The one partial exception, in
which growth offset around 30 percent of the revenue lost, was in a story where people expected
taxes to rise in the future. In this case, people worked and saved more in the low tax period
with the idea that they would work and save less in the higher tax period in the future.
That is not a story of increasing growth, but rather moving it forward. I doubt that any of
the Republicans pushing tax cuts wants to tell people that they better work more now because we
will tax you more in the future. But that is the logic of the scenario where growth recaptures
at least some of the lost revenue.
Having said all this, let me add my usual point. The debt to GDP ratio tells us almost nothing.
We should be far more interested in the ratio of debt service to GDP (now near a post war low
of 1.8 percent).
Also, if we are concerned about future obligations we are creating for our children we must
look at patent and copyright monopolies. These are in effect privately imposed taxes that the
government allows private companies to charge as incentive for innovation and creative work. The
size of these patent rents in pharmaceuticals alone is approaching $400 billion. This is more
than 2 percent of GDP and more than 10 percent of all federal revenue. In other words, it is a
huge burden that honest people cannot ignore.
What Congress isn't Seeing When the Government Spends
By Dean Baker
The U.S. House of Representatives recently adopted a new rule that requires lawmakers to take
long-term macroeconomic effects into consideration when deciding how to vote on tax and spending
bills. In theory, this could show that tax cuts, particularly for billionaires, boosts the U.S.
economy, since expectations of paying fewer taxes would encourage people to work a little harder,
leading to more growth that would help offset revenues lost from tax cuts.
There is some truth to the logic behind this type of forecasting - what policymakers call 'dynamic
scoring.' But this approach put forth by the House has little to do with the way the economy actually
works. True, lower tax rates do give workers somewhat more incentive to work and save, but serious
analysis shows that the impacts of this incentive is small. This was the conclusion that the U.S.
Congressional Budget Office reached in 2005 when it examined this issue under economist Douglas
Holtz-Eakin. In a model that examined the effects of a 10% reduction in all federal individual
income tax rates, the economy was slightly larger in the first five years after the tax cut and
slightly smaller in the five years that followed. In this case, using dynamic scoring showed the
tax cut costing more revenue than in the methodology the CBO currently uses.
The CBO did find that dynamic scoring of the tax cut could have some positive effects if coupled
with other policies. In one set of models, policymakers assumed that taxes were raised after 10
years. This led the government to raise more tax revenue in the first 10 years because people
knew that they would be taxed more later, so they worked more. The House rule, however, does not
factor in that taxes could rise in the future.
In the other set of models, the CBO assumed that government spending was cut by enough in 10
years to make up for the revenue shortfall. This also showed more growth because CBO models assume
that cutting government spending will always lead to more growth. The way its models are structured,
the less money is spent by the government, the more money will be available for private investment,
which will lead to more productivity and growth.
This raises a far more serious problem. In the scenario just described, the CBO assumes government
spending has zero impacts on productivity, meaning that if the government shut down all the schools
tomorrow and stopped any spending to maintain or improve America's highways, airports and other
infrastructure, the economy would still keep growing. The model assumes no productivity loss from
having illiterate workers or dysfunctional roads and airports. It will only show gains, as some
portion of the money saved is shifted into private investments.
To better reflect economic reality, the CBO should incorporate the productivity effects of
public investment in it's models. There has been much work done over the years on the productivity
of different forms of public investment such as infrastructure, education, and research and development
spending. If the CBO incorporated this productivity impact into its economic projections they
would provide better predictions of the economic and budgetary impact of policy.
It would also be reasonable to include honest dynamic scoring of tax policy that includes future
tax increases rather than the current House rule, which just includes tax cuts. But as the CBO
analysis under Holtz-Eakin showed, this will lead to the opposite outcome desired by right-wing
Republicans. It certainly does not make sense to require the CBO to use phony numbers to justify
tax cuts for rich people, which appears to be the direction in which the Republican-controlled
House is going right now.
Actually Curbing Tax Avoidance by Companies Shifting
Profits Overseas Is Not Hard
The New York Times had an article * discussing various
efforts to deal with companies shifting profits overseas to
avoid paying the corporate income tax.The piece implies that
we don't know how to ensure that companies pay taxes on
foreign profits.
Actually, it is not hard to design a system where
companies cannot avoid paying taxes on their foreign profits.
If corporations were required to turn over an amount of
non-voting shares ** equal to the targeted tax rate (e.g. if
we want taxes to be equal to 25 percent of profits, then the
non-voting shares should be equal to 25 percent of the
total), then it would be almost impossible for companies to
escape their tax liability.
Under this system, the non-voting shares would be treated
the same way as voting shares in terms of payouts. If a
company paid a $2 dividend on its voting shares, then the
government's shares would also get a $2 dividend. If it
bought back 10 percent of its shares at $100 a share, it will
also buy back 10 percent of the government's shares at $100 a
share.
Under this system there is basically no way for a company
to avoid its tax obligations unless it also rips off its own
shareholders. In this case, it would be outright fraud and
the shareholders would have a large interest in cracking down
on its top management.
It understandable that those who don't want corporations
to pay income taxes would be opposed to this sort of
non-voting shares system, but it is wrong to say that we
don't know how to collect the corporate income tax.
Instead of Taxes, Make Corporations Give the Government
Stock
By Dean Baker - Los Angeles Times
President Trump and Congress will soon take up the job of
reforming the tax code, with particular attention to
corporate taxes. Since a substantial portion of the corporate
income tax is paid by wealthy shareholders, many of us are
concerned that "reform" actually means reducing the tax
burden for the 1% - and leaving a larger burden for the rest
of us.
But the need for true reform is real. Although the
corporate tax rate is 35%, companies generally pay around
23%. Giant loopholes save companies money, deprive the
government of money, and create money for people in the tax
avoidance industry.
Exotic schemes to game the system are constantly in the
news.
Take, for example, the corporate inversion strategy, in
which a U.S. company arranges to be taken over by a foreign
company in order to eliminate its liability on overseas
profits. These takeovers generate large fees for the
accountants and lawyers who engineer the process without
improving the broader economy.
"Dead peasant" insurance policies, made famous by the
documentarian Michael Moore, are another example. In that
scheme, huge companies like Wal-Mart take out insurance
policies on the lives of front line workers, such as checkout
clerks, to smooth out their profit flows and reduce their tax
liability. If a worker dies, the company gets the payout, not
the individual or his family. Someone undoubtedly got very
rich dreaming up dead peasant policies but, again, this
financial innovation does not contribute to economic growth.
Perhaps the greatest scheme of all is the private equity
industry, which loads firms with debt. Because the interest
on that debt is tax deductible, private equity firms can make
large profits even if they've done nothing to improve a
company's performance. Incidentally, many of the richest
people in the country made their fortune in private equity,
including folks like Mitt Romney, Pete Peterson, and many
other prominent billionaires or near-billionaires.
If the tax reformers are serious, and I hope they are,
here's one simple way to largely eliminate the gaming
opportunities that have made these people rich.
Instead of traditional taxes, the government could require
corporations to turn over a portion of their stock, say 25%,
in the form of non-voting shares. The government would
benefit from any dividends or share buybacks but would have
no voice in running the company.
This system would eliminate almost all opportunities for
gaming since a company would not be able to deny the
government its share of profits unless it also withheld
profits from its other shareholders. And we would not call
that "tax avoidance" but outright theft – the sort of thing
that gets people sent to jail.
Many companies might actually embrace this system. They
would save a huge amount of money on accounting and
bookkeeping, and they wouldn't have to take the tax code into
consideration when they decided their accounting procedures
for long-term investments. They could simply do what makes
the most sense for them....
"it is not hard to design a system where companies cannot
avoid paying taxes on their foreign profits. If corporations
were required to turn over an amount of non-voting shares **
equal to the targeted tax rate (e.g. if we want taxes to be
equal to 25 percent of profits, then the non-voting shares
should be equal to 25 percent of the total), then it would be
almost impossible for companies to escape their tax
liability."
Dean Baker has made this proposal before. When
he did - I said it was a good idea. I've seen a couple of
folks questioning this but their questioning of it was the
usual misunderstanding if not misrepresentation.
That's right. THe government should become a shareholder and
then can share in the capital gains when the company does
buybacks. They can then use these "on paper" gains to pay for
roads "on paper" and pay for healthcare and our army "on
paper"
way to go pgl. Now it is clear you are a junk bond
salesman. financial engineering is how we will move this
country forward. sarcasm...
It is clear to me that the centrist democrats like pgl
have joined the financial engineering crowd.
Can someone here explain this proposal? I don't understand
how this works. We already know that a company makes a profit
overseas, and we could tax it instead of deferring those
taxes until they repatriate the profit.
How would paying
the tax in stock instead of cash make any difference?
We already know that a company makes a profit overseas, and
we could tax it instead of deferring those taxes until they
repatriate the profit.
How would paying the tax in stock
instead of cash make any difference?
[ The value of corporate stock is determined by corporate
earnings. Whether corporate earnings are domestic and after
tax or overseas, whether earnings are distributed or retained
make no difference. An increase in overseas earnings then,
will increase the value of corporate stock. ]
OK, I think I understand it now: a corporation would be
directly owned by the government; the proportion of ownership
would be equal to the desired tax rate.
But the increase in
value does not put cash in the government's pocket. Does the
government borrow against the shares? sell them?
Or, more likely, hang on to the shares and use deficit
financing.
The idea that "this is a simple way to collect all taxes"
seems far fetched to me.
"Can't" be taxed? That's the part I don't understand. If they
can hide their profits, then Baker's proposal will not work
either. But if you know their profits, why can't you tax
them?
Right now it seems we know what the profits are, but they
don't get taxed until repatriated -- why? Transfer pricing
exploits this loophole, but why can't we just close it?
And, to my original question, how does Baker's proposal
make any difference?
(Inversions are a different thing: after the inversion, it
is no longer a US corp, so we can't tax their overseas
profits and I don't know if/how we tax any of their US
profits.)
The repatriation tax is not the same thing as transfer
pricing. I thought everyone knew that but I guess not you.
I'd explain the difference but then you would get all mad and
have to piss on some dead man's grave as usual.
A Progressive Way to Replace Corporate Taxes
By DEAN BAKER
Washington - JUST about every American chief executive has
the same dream: to get out from under the corporate income
tax. For many, that means lobbying Congress to change the tax
code. But for a growing number, it also involves increasingly
creative - and successful - tricks to avoid their liability.
The latest fad is inversion. Over the last few years, some
of the country's largest companies have arranged to be taken
over by smaller companies, conveniently headquartered in the
Bahamas or some other tax haven. A company then has to pay
tax only in the tax haven; it escapes American corporate
income taxes altogether. Pfizer, the huge pharmaceutical
company, is currently attempting to go this route, being
taken over by a much smaller company with headquarters in
low-tax Ireland.
While it's hard not to admire the ingenuity of these
tax-avoidance schemes, their success is a big problem for
federal revenues. Though the United States has the highest
statutory corporate income tax in the developed world,
write-offs and loopholes have eroded the government's take
for decades. Corporate income taxes were just 1.9 percent of
gross domestic product in 2014. That is down from an average
of 2.6 percent in the 1970s, even though profits are near a
postwar high as a share of national income.
The Obama administration is looking into ways to crack
down on inversions, but it's a losing battle. Other tricks
will be found. Which leaves us with two paths forward. If we
get less money from corporations, we have to make up the
shortfall from other sources of revenue, almost all of which
will be more regressive than the corporate income tax. Or we
can come up with a radically new approach to corporate
taxation....
"Global oil discoveries fell to a record low in 2016 as
companies continued to cut spending and conventional oil
projects sanctioned were at the lowest level in more than 70
years, according to the International Energy Agency (EIA).
Both trends could continue this year, and the EIA warns
that global oil supply could lag demand after 2020 unless new
investments are approved soon."...
"... It should not be a surprise. This unseemly and unnecessary cash-in fits a pattern of bad behavior involving the financial sector, one that spans Obama's entire presidency. ..."
"... Obama's Wall Street payday will confirm for many what they have long suspected: that the Democratic Party is managed by out-of-touch elites who do not understand or care about the concerns of ordinary Americans. It's hard to fault those who come to this conclusion.. ..."
"... I began this essay by saying that Obama's $400,000 oligarchic shill job was a bookend ..."
"... Before he was even elected, an executive from Citigroup (the corporate owner of Citibank) gave Obama a list of acceptable choices for who may serve on his cabinet. The list ended up matching Obama's actual cabinet picks once elected almost to a 't' ..."
"The rumors are true: Former President Barack Obama will receive $400,000 to speak at a health
care conference organized by the Wall Street firm Cantor Fitzgerald.
It should not be a surprise. This unseemly and unnecessary cash-in fits a pattern of bad
behavior involving the financial sector, one that spans Obama's entire presidency.
That governing failure convinced millions of his onetime supporters that the president and
his party were not, in fact, playing for their team, and helped pave the way for President Donald
Trump. Obama's Wall Street payday will confirm for many what they have long suspected: that
the Democratic Party is managed by out-of-touch elites who do not understand or care about the
concerns of ordinary Americans. It's hard to fault those who come to this conclusion..."
If Progressives Don't Wake Up To How Awful Obama Was, Their Movement Will Fail
...............
" I began this essay by saying that Obama's $400,000 oligarchic shill job was a bookend
.
I did that because, in what was easily the single most important and egregious WikiLeaks email
of 2016, we learned that Wall Street was calling the shots in the Obama administration before
the Obama administration even existed.
"... Meanwhile the center left spent their time and energy attacking the messengers - calling Sanders "unserious" - while mansplaining that their minimal reforms and tinkering was improving lives and people should be eternally grateful. ..."
"... No wonder so many voters don't trust the Democratic party. ..."
"Working-class Americans didn't necessarily understand the details of global trade deals, but
they saw elite Americans and people in China and other developing countries becoming rapidly wealthier
while their own incomes stagnated or declined. It should not be surprising that many of them agreed
with Trump and with the Democratic presidential primary contender Bernie Sanders that the game
was rigged."
Meanwhile the center left spent their time and energy attacking the messengers - calling Sanders
"unserious" - while mansplaining that their minimal reforms and tinkering was improving lives
and people should be eternally grateful.
No wonder so many voters don't trust the Democratic party.
No, their pro-business attitude is part of the problem. They've bought into conservative propaganda:
see Bill Clinton's welfare deform for instance.
Matthew Yglesias's piece sharply criticizing Obama for taking a $400,000 speaker fee to talk
at a conference organized by Cantor Fitzgerald is getting a lot of pushback. I find this a little
startling – while I disagree with MY's defense of centrism, the underlying argument – that there
is something sleazy about former officials going on the speaker's circuit for astronomical fees
– seems so obviously right as to scarcely merit further discussion, let alone vigorous disagreement.
I've seen three counter-arguments being made. First – that Yglesias and others making this
case are being implicitly racist by holding Obama to a higher standard than other politicians.
Personally, I'll happily stipulate to holding Obama to a higher standard than other politicians,
but it isn't because he is black. Instead, it's because Obama seemed to plausibly be better than
most other politicians on personal ethics. That's not to say that I agreed with his foreign policy,
or attitude to the financial sector, or many other things he did, but I wouldn't have expected
him to look to cash in, especially as he doesn't seem to be hurting for money. Obviously, I was
wrong.
Second – that there isn't any real difference between Obama's giving speeches for a lot of
money, and Obama getting a fat book contract, since both are responses to the market. This, again,
is not convincing. Tony Blair is catering to a market too – a rather smaller market of murderous
kleptocrats who want their reputations burnished through association with a prominent Western
politician. The key question is not whether it is a market transaction, but what is being sold,
and whom it is being sold to. In my eyes, there is a sharp difference between selling the flattery
of your company to the rich and powerful, and selling a book manuscript that is plausibly of real
interest to a lot of ordinary people. The former requires you to shape your public persona in
very different ways than the latter.
Third – that everyone does it so why shouldn't the Obamas. Yglesias deals with this pretty
well out of the box:
Indeed, to not take the money might be a problem for someone in Obama's position. It would
set a precedent.
Obama would be suggesting that for an economically comfortable high-ranking former government
official to be out there doing paid speaking gigs would be corrupt, sleazy, or both. He'd be looking
down his nose at the other corrupt, sleazy former high-ranking government officials and making
enemies.
Which is exactly why he should have turned down the gig.
Just so. The claim that 'everyone does it' is not an excuse or defense. It's a statement of
the problem.
I do think that MY's piece can be criticized (more precisely, with a very slight change in
rhetorical emphasis, it points in the opposite direction than the one Yglesias wants it to point
in). MY states the objections that progressive centrism (or, as we've talked about it here in
the past, left neo-liberalism) is subject to:
The political right is supposed to be pro-business as a matter of ideological commitment. The
progressive center is supposed to be empirically minded, challenging business interests where
appropriate but granting them free rein at other times.
This approach has a lot of political and substantive merits. But it is invariably subject to
the objection: really?
Did you really avoid breaking up the big banks because you thought it would undermine financial
stability, or were you on the take? Did you really think a fracking ban would be bad for the environment,
or were you on the take? One man's sophisticated and pragmatic approach to public policy can be
the other man's grab bag of corrupt opportunism.
He then goes on to say why this means that Obama needs to adopt a higher standard of behavior:
Leaders who sincerely care about the fate of the progressive center as a nationally and globally
viable political movement need to push back against this perception by behaving with a higher
degree of personal integrity than their rivals - not by accepting the logic that what's good for
the goose is good for the gander.
and
Obama should take seriously the message it sends to those young people if he decides to make
a career out of buckraking. He knows that Hillary Clinton isn't popular with the youth cohort
the way he is. And he knows that populists on both the left and the right want to make a sweeping
ideological critique of all center-left politics, not just a narrow personal one of Clinton. Does
Obama want them to win that battle and carry the day with the message that mainstream politics
is just a moneymaking hustle?
Of course, it's just one speech. Nothing is irrevocable about one speech. But money doesn't get
any easier to turn down with time, any more than rebuking friends and colleagues gets easier.
To make his post-presidency a success, Obama should give this money to some good cause and then
swear off these gigs entirely.
But what does Obama's willingness to take the money in the first place say about progressive
centrism, if we stipulate (as I think MY would likely agree) that Obama is probably as good as
progressive centrists are likely to get? The left neoliberal hit against standard liberal-to-left
politics in the 1980s was that it fostered sleazy interest groups and tacit or not-so-tacit mutual
backscratching between these interest groups and politicians. If the very best alternative that
left neoliberalism has to offer is another, and arguably worse version of this (Wall Street firms,
unlike unions, don't even have the need to pretend to have the interests of ordinary people at
heart), then its raison d'etre is pretty well exploded.
More succinctly – MY wants Obama to behave better, because otherwise political centrism will
start to look like a hustle. But if someone like Obama is not behaving better, doesn't that imply
that the hustle theory has legs?
"Krugman thought that this was because economists, enamored by the "jewel in the crown of economics",
theory of comparative advantage, tend to look at average effects, not at the heterogeneity of
effects. He thought that this was changing now. "
Interesting that economists still seem to avoid a discussion of those supposedly 'diffuse'
winners. Sure, consumers saw lower prices. But what about investors, at whose behest these 'fair'
trade deals got negotiated in the first place?
Will some honest economist, if there are any left, finally step up and analyze the distributional
effects of 'free' trade between capital and labor?
I expect that the most concentrated effects 'free' trade will be found not only among displaced
workers but also in the profits...and earnings going to the 1%.
Neil Irwin had an interesting piece in the NY Times a couple days ago. Basically, he was meditating
on the future direction of the economic stagnation. He speculates that the rise in inflation was
a non-recurring event, driven largely by rising oil prices. Those clamoring for more inflation
are likely to be disappointed.
Irwin notes that underlying drivers of growth and inflation are absent: globally there is over
capacity in manufacturing, ample supplies of commodities, and a glut of labor.
Concentrated oligopolies know how to best leverage this situation to their advantage, shifting
production and employment among various operations.
I have long argued that this new reality will put a damper on US wage growth, because employers
have escape valves in the global market. IMO Promoters of low interest rates ignore this new reality,
claiming that pressurizing the economy will inevitably lead to higher wages.
We will see who is right. Ten years and counting...and wages have yet to rise.
Yep. However, there is always room for complexity in economics. The right and wrong of inflation
will depend upon the basket of goods AND services. CPI includes the following.
• Food and beverages
• Housing
• Apparel
• Transportation
• Medical care
• Recreation
• Education and communication
• Other goods and services
There is more than ample room for cost push inflation that is not linked to wages in every
bullet. That is not something to celebrate though.
I agree that we want to see inflation resulting from higher wages...but economists rarely talk
about wages in the same breath as inflation...which leads me to suspect that they are interested
mostly in more inflation, which I believe has few benefits, rather than higher wages, which has
a lot of benefits.
Most here strenuously disagree, believing that we must take it on faith that liberal economists
are really promoting higher wages via accommodative monetary policy, even though wages almost
never factor into any discussion of monetary policy or its benefits.
mmm.. It is a bit hard to feel sorry for "Munchin". But I don't know what
the surprise is - in Trump's cabinet everybody undermines everybody else. It
is absolutely par for the course. Hasn't he noticed?
The reason is obvious. Trump hasn't a clue what he is doing, and he likes
to play one advisor off against another. In order to protect themselves they
do likewise.
Final
Class tax burden shares
are hard
to calculate most tax cuts are
guided by immediate shock effects
not long run system wide adjustments to the tax change shock
Bottom
line next years tax bill
not long run social Welfare
Their
donor class gets most of its income from capital income. Which is why
they really love gutting taxation on capital. Better for the Hampton
crowd to tax labor income or impose sales taxes. Only little people
pay taxes in their world.
[Yep, but tax breaks are a twofer, very effective dividends for the
donor class while still popular among the weebles as long as we gets
a little out of them too. Democrats are too noble (cough, cough) to
ever raise taxes on corporations and the wealthy while cutting taxes
below the median income or so.]
Given the overall
low opinion of the electorate with regards to politicians in general and specifically
to each of our two major political parties, then there is little that any political
candidate can do to win elections, but there are limitless things that any establishment
political candidate can do to lose them. Donald Trump found the sweet spot in
that racket.
Democrats
are probably in a frantic search for some glib, authentic-sounding huckster
to play the role of a populist agent for change in the 2024 election...and
then immediately reverse course upon taking office to serve the interest
of the bankers, defense contractors, globalists, etc...in the mold of
Macron, Pena-Nieto, Obama and Trump.
One of the keys to success in
presidential politics these days is to be an outsider without much of
a track record in politics, so that the fraud is hard to detect.
The future lies with outsiders, who are authentic-sounding frauds.
"Democrats
are probably in a frantic search for some glib, authentic-sounding huckster
to play the role of a populist agent for change in the 2024 election..."
[Whatever happened to 2020? Look, I am all set for a liberal sounding
huckster in 2020. So, don't write me off just yet.]
"...The future lies with outsiders, who are authentic-sounding frauds."
[That would seem to be the natural course of evolution from where
we are today. I do believe in the more distant future, too distant for
me but not for my grandchildren, then populism may congeal at a point
from which it evolves towards greater democracy. However, there is a
lot for the wisdom of crowds to learn and unlearn before the train arrives
at that station.]
Democrats'
cupboard is bare. Time Kaine is the default, and the Obama/Clinton faction
will defend its control at all cost...and will have the same success
as Mondale, Dukakis and Kerry.
I understand that a key indicator is
an invitation to Bilderberg, which now publishes much of its list of
attendees. Clinton got invited in 1991, Blair in 1993, and Macron in
2014.
Maybe,
we will see. The Republican Party has done well enough working with
a bare cupboard for decades. Events drive the news cycle and the national
dialogue. Political parties just try to see how deep into the bottom
of the barrel that they can scrape and still get by with their triangulated
pandering and defamatory memes.
"Democrats
are probably in a frantic search for some glib, authentic-sounding huckster
to play the role of a populist agent for change in the 2024 election..."
Michelle Obama for 2020! Or Oprah Winfrey. I'll be astonished if Dem
"strategists" don't seriously push for one of these two "solutions".
Actually,
I would be for either one, but prefer Denzel Washington if given a choice.
Of course Morgan Freeman has more presidential experience. He has not
only play the role of POTUS, Morgan Freeman has played the role of God.
That's hard to beat. I'm easy enough. That still gives me no reason
to call anyone that sees it different a racist xenophobe without having
said one word to them first.
You mean if Borders had become Barnes
& Noble? Well, B&N is struggling, too.
Just like Walmart, Amazon's business model ELIMINATES the competition.
In my view, every Amazon purchase is a rock thrown through the window of
a local retailer, large or small. Personally, if I ever throw rocks, they're
going to be aimed bigger and better targets than that.
B&N closed their Georgetown (DC)
store a couple of years ago, IIRC
right before the xmas season got
started. It was an oasis on a side
of town that would rather sell you a
$500 pair of pants dotted with
embroidered lobsters. The building
was a nicely reclaimed three-floor
warehouse space with coffee and
lounging areas, and it had become a
nice excuse to go into DC and hang
out.
I'm not sure this is entirely true. Just
as an example, a trade paperback I bought in
1998 for a cover price of $12.95 (Anne
Carson's
Eros the bittersweet
) now
has a cover price of $13.95, only a dollar
more. The BLS's CPI calculator says the book
should cost $19.54 in today's dollars.
That doesn't strike me as unaffordable.
It's possible that if I went out and bought
a copy of the book now, the printing might
be worse, or the paper of a lower quality,
but I cannot imagine it being much worse
than the copy I already own.
Actually Curbing Tax Avoidance by Companies Shifting Profits Overseas Is
Not Hard
The New York Times had an article * discussing various efforts to deal with
companies shifting profits overseas to avoid paying the corporate income tax.The
piece implies that we don't know how to ensure that companies pay taxes on foreign
profits.
Actually, it is not hard to design a system where companies cannot avoid
paying taxes on their foreign profits. If corporations were required to turn
over an amount of non-voting shares ** equal to the targeted tax rate (e.g.
if we want taxes to be equal to 25 percent of profits, then the non-voting shares
should be equal to 25 percent of the total), then it would be almost impossible
for companies to escape their tax liability.
Under this system, the non-voting shares would be treated the same way as
voting shares in terms of payouts. If a company paid a $2 dividend on its voting
shares, then the government's shares would also get a $2 dividend. If it bought
back 10 percent of its shares at $100 a share, it will also buy back 10 percent
of the government's shares at $100 a share.
Under this system there is basically no way for a company to avoid its tax
obligations unless it also rips off its own shareholders. In this case, it would
be outright fraud and the shareholders would have a large interest in cracking
down on its top management.
It understandable that those who don't want corporations to pay income taxes
would be opposed to this sort of non-voting shares system, but it is wrong to
say that we don't know how to collect the corporate income tax.
Instead of Taxes, Make Corporations Give the Government Stock
By Dean Baker - Los Angeles Times
President Trump and Congress will soon take up the job of reforming
the tax code, with particular attention to corporate taxes. Since a
substantial portion of the corporate income tax is paid by wealthy shareholders,
many of us are concerned that "reform" actually means reducing the tax
burden for the 1% - and leaving a larger burden for the rest of us.
But the need for true reform is real. Although the corporate tax
rate is 35%, companies generally pay around 23%. Giant loopholes save
companies money, deprive the government of money, and create money for
people in the tax avoidance industry.
Exotic schemes to game the system are constantly in the news.
Take, for example, the corporate inversion strategy, in which a U.S.
company arranges to be taken over by a foreign company in order to eliminate
its liability on overseas profits. These takeovers generate large fees
for the accountants and lawyers who engineer the process without improving
the broader economy.
"Dead peasant" insurance policies, made famous by the documentarian
Michael Moore, are another example. In that scheme, huge companies like
Wal-Mart take out insurance policies on the lives of front line workers,
such as checkout clerks, to smooth out their profit flows and reduce
their tax liability. If a worker dies, the company gets the payout,
not the individual or his family. Someone undoubtedly got very rich
dreaming up dead peasant policies but, again, this financial innovation
does not contribute to economic growth.
Perhaps the greatest scheme of all is the private equity industry,
which loads firms with debt. Because the interest on that debt is tax
deductible, private equity firms can make large profits even if they've
done nothing to improve a company's performance. Incidentally, many
of the richest people in the country made their fortune in private equity,
including folks like Mitt Romney, Pete Peterson, and many other prominent
billionaires or near-billionaires.
If the tax reformers are serious, and I hope they are, here's one
simple way to largely eliminate the gaming opportunities that have made
these people rich.
Instead of traditional taxes, the government could require corporations
to turn over a portion of their stock, say 25%, in the form of non-voting
shares. The government would benefit from any dividends or share buybacks
but would have no voice in running the company.
This system would eliminate almost all opportunities for gaming since
a company would not be able to deny the government its share of profits
unless it also withheld profits from its other shareholders. And we
would not call that "tax avoidance" but outright theft – the sort of
thing that gets people sent to jail.
Many companies might actually embrace this system. They would save
a huge amount of money on accounting and bookkeeping, and they wouldn't
have to take the tax code into consideration when they decided their
accounting procedures for long-term investments. They could simply do
what makes the most sense for them....
"it is
not hard to design a system where companies cannot avoid paying taxes
on their foreign profits. If corporations were required to turn over
an amount of non-voting shares ** equal to the targeted tax rate (e.g.
if we want taxes to be equal to 25 percent of profits, then the non-voting
shares should be equal to 25 percent of the total), then it would be
almost impossible for companies to escape their tax liability."
Dean
Baker has made this proposal before. When he did - I said it was a good
idea. I've seen a couple of folks questioning this but their questioning
of it was the usual misunderstanding if not misrepresentation.
"... If the corrupt neoliberal centrist globalization loving job killing status quo democrats do not reform, Bernie supporters might jump ship and form their own party. We will see where you guys are then ..."
"Lies, damn lies and the deep state: Plenty of Americans see them all:
Poll"
By GARY LANGER...Apr 27, 2017...7:00 AM ET
"Nearly half of Americans think there's a "deep state" in this country,
just more than half think the mainstream media regularly report false stories
and six in 10 say the Trump administration regularly makes false claims.
Just another day in the world of alleged sneaky stuff.
Each of these claims has gained attention since the 2016 campaign and
the start of the Trump presidency, and this ABC News/Washington Post poll
finds that each has lots of takers.
Start with the "deep state," described here as "military, intelligence
and government officials who try to secretly manipulate government policy."
A plurality, 48 percent, think there is such a thing. Fewer, 35 percent,
call it a conspiracy theory, with the rest unsure."...
I am heartbroken too, but if you think the right wing has some sort of monopoly
on this, you're part of the problem, and not part of the solution. Hell,
the Dems rigged their own primary, lied about it, got caught, and then simply
shrugged it off as what everyone does. Elections are now meaningless, and
the Democrats couldn't care less. OK, but if that's their attitude, I'd
suggest they try rigging all those down-ballot races they've made a habit
of losing of late.
Anyone who dares to question the status quo neoliberal corporatist corrupt
policies should just shut up?
Clear evidence that the status quo has become so corrupt and beholden
to special interest money that they will try to silence dissent from even
their own ranks.
If the corrupt neoliberal centrist globalization loving job killing
status quo democrats do not reform, Bernie supporters might jump ship and
form their own party. We will see where you guys are then .
The internet is the only reason these people are relevant, in the real
world none of them has ever done anything to try and make the changes they
support. I doubt whether any of them has even voted.
the democrat party just got decimated - presidential, both houses of
congress, state, local everywhere. And you think this is an academic debate?
You must be a clueless academic OR IYI (intelligent yet idiot) as Taleb
calls you guys.
"... On April 17 th , Scott Humor, the Research Director at the geostrategic site "The Saker," headlined "Trump has lost control over the Pentagon" , and he listed (and linked-to) the following signs that Trump is following through with his promise to allow the Pentagon to control U.S. international relations: ..."
"... March 14 th , the US National Nuclear Security Administration field tested the modernized B61-12 gravity nuclear bomb in Nevada . ..."
"... April 7, Liberty Passion, loaded with US military vehicles, moored at Aqaba Main Port, Jordan ..."
"... On April 7 th the Pentagon US bombed Syria's main command center in fight against terrorists ..."
"... April 10, United States Deploying Forces At Syrian-Jordanian Border ..."
"... April 11, The US Air Force might start forcing pilots to stay in the service against their will, according to the chief of the military unit's Air Mobility Command. ..."
"... April 12, President Donald Trump has signed the US approval for Montenegro to join NATO ..."
"... April 13, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg announced the alliance's increased deployment in Eastern Europe ..."
"... On April 13 th , the Pentagon bombed Afghanistan. The US military has bombed Afghanistan with its GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast Bomb (MOAB) ..."
"... April 13, the US-led coalition bombed the IS munitions and chemical weapons depot in Deir ez-Zo r killing hundreds of people ..."
"... April 14, The Arleigh Burke-class, guided-missile destroyer USS Stethem (DDG 63) has been deployed to the South China Sea ..."
"... April 14, the US sent F-35 jets to Europe ..."
"... April 14, Washington failed to attend the latest international conference hosted by Moscow, where 11 nations discussed ways of bringing peace to Afghanistan . The US branded it a "unilateral Russian attempt to assert influence in the region". ..."
"... April14, the US has positioned two destroyers armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles close enough to the North Korean nuclear test site to act preemptively ..."
"... On April 16 th , the US army makes largest deployment of troops to Somalia since the 90s. ..."
On April 15th, Zero
Hedge bannered
"Doomsday Bunker Sales Soar After Trump's Military Strikes", but this growth in the market
for nuclear-proof bunkers is hardly new; it started during the Obama Administration, in Obama's second
term, specifically after the Russia-friendly government of Ukraine, next-door to Russia, got taken
over in 2014 by a rabidly anti-Russian government that's backed by the U.S. government.
This boom in nuclear-bunker sales is only increasing now, as the new U.S. President, Donald
Trump, tries to out-do his predecessor in demonstrating his hostility toward the other nuclear superpower,
Russia, and displaying his determination to overthrow the leader of any nation (such as Syria and
Iran) that is at all friendly toward Russia. For earlier examples of feature-articles on this booming
market for homes that allegedly would enable buyers to survive the first blast effects, and the most
immediate nuclear contaminations, of a Third World War, see
here, and
here,
and
here, and
here, and
here, and
here, and
here, and
here, and
here, and
here.
Whereas all of the purchasers of these bunkers are being kept secret, the U.S. federal
government provides, free-of-charge, to top officials, nuclear bunkers, so as to allow the then-dictatorship
(continuation of America's current dictatorship)
to function, in order, supposedly, to serve their country, which they'd already have destroyed (along
with destroying the rest of the world) by their determination to conquer Russia. No one
knows what the reality would actually be in such a post-WW-III world, except that there would be
no functioning electrical grid, nights would be totally dark for anyone whose sole reliance is on
the grid, and all rivers and other water-sources would be intensely radioactive from the fallout,
so that groundwater soon would also be unusable - and, of course, the air itself would also be toxic;
so, lifespans would be enormously shortened, and excruciating, not to say extremely depressing.
No one has published a computer-model of a U.S.-Russia nuclear war, because doing that would be
unacceptable to the "military-industrial complex" including the U.S. government, but in 2014
a "limited,
regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan" was computer-modeled and projected to produce
global ozone-depletion and "the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1000 years", which
"could trigger a global nuclear famine". But such a war would be only 50 bombs instead of
the 10,000+ that would be used in a WW III scenario; and, so, everyone who is paying money in order
to survive WW III is simply wasting money.
But, somehow, there are people who either want a Russia-U.S. war, or else whose
preparations for it are directed at surviving in such a world, instead of at ending the current grip
on political power in the United States, on the part of the people who are working to bring about
this type of (end to the) world. At least the owners of the major U.S. armaments-firms, such as Raytheon
Corporation, would have an explosive financial boost during the build-up toward that war, but buying
bunkers in order to survive it, would seem to be a dubious follow-up to such an investment-plan.
On the other hand, it might appeal to some thrill-seekers who don't even feel the need for a good
computer-simulation of a post-WW-III world; maybe they've got money to burn and a craving to experience
'the ultimate thrill', and don't want unpleasant knowledge to spoil the thrill.
After President Trump threw out his National Security Advisor Michael Flynn and replaced him with
the rabidly anti-Russian H.R. McMaster, and then lobbed 59 cruise missiles against the Syrian government
(which is protected by the Russian government), the cacophony of press that had been calling for
President Trump to be impeached and replaced by his rabidly anti-Russian Vice President Mike Pence,
considerably quieted down; and, so, the Obama-Trump market for nuclear bunkers seems now to be established
on very sound foundations, for the foreseeable immediate future. And, if anyone in the U.S. federal
government has been planning to prepare the U.S. for a post-WW-III world, that has not been publicly
announced, and no newsmedia have even been inquiring about it - so, nothing can yet be said about
it.
The general message, thus far, is that, after World War III, everyone will be on his or
her own, but that the dictators will (supposedly) be in a far better position than will anyone outside
that ruling group. However, if the survivors end up merely envying the dead, it will be
no laughing matter, regardless of how silly those nuclear bunkers are. It would be nothing funny
at all.
On April 17th, Scott Humor, the Research Director at the geostrategic site "The
Saker," headlined
"Trump has
lost control over the Pentagon", and he listed (and linked-to) the following signs that Trump
is following through with his promise to allow the Pentagon to control U.S. international relations:
Mr. Humor drew attention to an article that had been published in "The Daily Beast" a year ago,
on 8 April 2016,
"CALL OF DUTY: The Secret Movement to Draft General James Mattis for President. Gen. James Mattis
doesn't necessarily want to be president-but that's not stopping a group of billionaire donors from
hatching a plan to get him there". Though none of the alleged "billionaires" were named there,
one prominent voice backing Mattis for the Presidency, in that article, was Bill Kristol, the Rupert
Murdoch agent who co-founded the Project for a New American Century, which was the first influential
group pushing the "regime-change in Iraq" idea during the late 1990s, and which also advocated for
the foreign policies that George W. Bush, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Donald Trump, have since
been pursuing, each in his own way. It seems that whomever those "billionaires" were, they've now
gotten their wish, with a figurehead Donald Trump as President, and James Mattis actually running
foreign policy. Humor also noted that Mattis wants to boost the budget of the Pentagon by far more
than the 9% that Trump has proposed. Perhaps Trump knew that even to get a 9% Pentagon increase
passed this year would be almost impossible to achieve. First, the unleashed Pentagon needs
to place the military into an 'emergency' situation, so as to persuade the public to clamor for a
major invasion. That 'emergency' might be the immediate goal, toward which the March-April timeline
of events that Humor documented is aiming.
As regards the military comparisons of the personnel and equipment on both sides of a
U.S.-Russia war, the key consideration would actually be not
the 7,000
nuclear warheads that Russia has versus the 6,800 nuclear warheads that the U.S. has, but the
chief motivation on each of the respective sides: conquest on the part of the U.S. aristocracy, defense
on the part of the Russian aristocracy. (Obviously, the U.S. having continued its NATO military
alliance after the Soviet Union's Warsaw Pact military alliance ended in 1991, indicates America's
aggressive intent against Russia. That became a hyper-aggressive intent when NATO absorbed Russia's
former Warsaw Pact allies. NATO even brought in some parts of the former USSR itself, when in 2004,
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, entered NATO, and in 2014 U.S. President Obama tried to get Ukraine
into NATO, and these five countries hadn't even been Warsaw Pacters, but had instead been parts of
the USSR itself. It was as if Russia had grabbed not only America's allies, but some states in the
U.S. itself. This constituted extreme aggression, and shows the U.S. aristocracy's obsessive intent
for global empire - to include Russia.)
Any limited war between the two powers would become a nuclear war once the side that's
losing this limited war becomes faced with the choice of either surrendering that limited territory
(now likely Syria) or else going nuclear. On Russia's side, allowing such military conquest
of an ally would be unacceptable; the war would then expand with the U.S. and its allies invading
Russian territory for Russia's continuing refusal to accept the U.S.-Saudi and other allies' grabbing
of Syria (on 'humanitarian grounds', of course - as if, for example, the Sauds aren't far more brutal
than Assad). After the traditional-forces' invasion of Russia, Russia's yielding its sovereignty
over its own land has never been part of Russia's culture: If Russia were to be invaded by allies
of the U.S., then launching all of Russia's nuclear weapons against the U.S. and America's invasion-allies,
would be a reasonably expected result. Here's how it would develop: On America's
side, which (very unlike Russia) has no record of any foreign invasion against its own mainland (other
than the Sauds' own 9/11 'false flag' attacks), the likely response in the event of Russia's crushing
its invaders would be for the U.S. President to seek to negotiate a face-saving end to that limited
war, just as the American President Richard Nixon did regarding America's invasion and occupation
of Vietnam.
However, a reasonable question can be raised as to whether, in such a situation, Russia
would accept anything less than America's total surrender, much as Franklin Delano Roosevelt in WW
II was determined to accept nothing less than Germany's total surrender, at the end of that war.
If Trump wants to play Hitler, then Putin (acting in accord with Russian tradition) would probably
play both FDR and Stalin, even if it meant the end of the world. For Russia to be conquered, especially
by such intense evil as those invaders would be representing, would probably be viewed by Russians
as being even worse than ending everything, and this would probably be Putin's view as well. If America
did not simply capitulate, Putin would probably nuclear-blitz-attack the U.S. and its allies, rather
than give Trump (or Pence) the opportunity to blitz-attack Russia and to sacrifice all of the U.S.
side's invading troops in Russia so as to 'win' the overall war and finally conquer Russia.
It would be like WW II, except with nuclear weapons - and thus an entirely different type of historical
outcome after the war.
Consequently, either the U.S. will cease its designs on Russia, or there will be WW
III. Russia's sovereignty will never be yielded, especially not to
the thuggish gang who have come to rule the U.S.
(both as "Republicans" and as "Democrats"). The bipartisan neoconservative dream of America's
aristocrats (world-conquest) will never be achieved. Russia will never accept it. If America's
rulers continue to press it, the result will be even worse than when the Nazis tried. It's just an
ugly pipe-dream, but any attempt to make it real would be even uglier. And nobody who buys a 'nuclear-proof
bunker' will get what he or she thinks is being bought - safety in such a world as that.
It won't exist.
False. We have a simulation, and it is far worse than people can even imagine.
[...
Even humans living in shelters equipped with many years worth of food, water, energy, and
medical supplies would probably not survive in the hostile post-war environment.
Another reason why USSA is in hurry to have the war with Russia ASAP is that they know that
very soon - if not even now in the present, USSA ICBM defense is outdated and 100% ineficient
against the newest Russian ICBMs, if by any bad chance Russia launches the 1st strike Disney Land
USSA is Bye Felicia without even a chance to retaliate.
A journey to the Afghan village where
President Trump dropped the biggest bomb.
ACHIN, AFGHANISTAN - I spent the evening of April 13 with a cousin and two aunts in the upscale
Wazir Akbar Khan neighborhood in Kabul, Afghanistan. My aunts mostly talked about their relaxed,
liberal early youth in the 1960s among the Kabul elite. As we waited in the driveway for our car,
my cousin told me about an explosion in Nangarhar, the eastern province of Afghanistan, where
our family comes from. We scrolled through our phones. As we drove out, it became clear it wasn't
the beginning of the Taliban's so-called Spring Offensive.
Around 8 p.m. Afghan time, the United States had dropped a 21,600-pound, $16 million bomb on
Asadkhel, a tiny village nestled between two forested hills, to attack a decades-old tunnel system
that was being used by fighters claiming allegiance to the Iraq- and Syria-based Islamic State.
Afghanistan has been at war for almost four decades now. Our people lived through the Soviet
occupation and the war the mujahedeen fought against the Soviets with the support of the United
States; freedom from the Soviet occupation was stained by a brutal civil war between mujahedeen
factions (warlords had ruled large parts of the country and exacted a terrible human cost).
The Taliban rule followed. We watched them being bombed into submission and escape after Sept.
11, celebrated a few years of relative calm, and saw the Taliban return to strength and wage a
long, bloody insurgency that continues to this day. We watched the world tire of our forever war
and forget us.
Throughout the years of war, we had come to make lists of many firsts in Afghanistan - horrors,
military victories, defeats, weapons used, atrocities committed, improbable lives saved. The explosion
of the "mother of all bombs" on April 13 was a striking addition to the list of "firsts."
(So...)
I set out for Nangarhar. Leaving Kabul can be a dangerous affair. If you travel south of the city,
every mile on the road is living with the prospect of an encounter with the Taliban, the possibility
of a tire rolling over a lethal roadside bomb.
I was, fortunately, driving east to Jalalabad, one of the largest Afghan cities. I drove for
three hours through tunnels carved into the mountainside, past streams flowing beside forested
mountains, and arrived in Jalalabad in the afternoon. The bombing site was two hours away. The
city did not betray any anxiety. Rickshaws whizzed from roundabout to roundabout; kebab stands
on sidewalks did brisk business; men and women filled the bazaars, shopping before the Friday
prayer.
Some Afghan officials from Jalalabad took a group of journalists to Achin district, about 40
miles south. We drove through Bati Kot and Shinwar, two districts in between, where the Islamic
State had established a significant presence in 2014. Thousands of residents had fled and sought
refuge in Jalalabad and Kabul, among other places. Most of them were yet to return, but people
carried on with their lives in village bazaars.
We passed an unfinished luxury-housing complex named for Amanullah Khan, the beloved former
king of Afghanistan. We passed the site of a proposed university. As we approached Achin, white
and purple poppy plants popped up in the green grass fields.
A few miles before Asadkhel, the bombed village, the road turned into a mountainous stretch
of rock, dirt and gravel. A market of about 200 stores lay abandoned; the stores had been destroyed
in weekslong military operations against the Islamic State fighters. Crumbling foundations, caved-in
roofs and some tattered pieces of cloth were all that remained.
Not far from the ruined market, I met two boys: 11-year-old Safiullah and 13-year-old Wajed.
They described the explosion as "very loud" but insisted that it did not scare them. Safiullah
held on to his unruly goat that he was walking home. "I am used to it," he said. "I have heard
so many bombings."
Wajed, who had come to bring water to the police, agreed. They said they were glad that the
Islamic State fighters were gone. Safiullah had interacted a little with Islamic State fighters
as he took his goat for grazing. They told him, "Don't grow poppy and don't shave your beard."
We finally reached a hilltop overlooking a green valley besides Asadkhel. A small cluster of
mud houses stood along the hill. Every now and then a child would pass by. We saw no adults.
Two hills obstructed view of the bombed area. American helicopters flew overhead. Three hours
passed but we weren't allowed to proceed further. Officials spoke cheerfully of resounding success
and precision of the operation.
Yet every time we sought permission to visit the bombed area, they found excuses to keep us
away: "The operation is ongoing!" "There are still Daesh" - Islamic State - "fighters on the loose!"
"There are land mines!" and finally, "The area is being cleared!" "No civilians were hurt!"
We weren't allowed anywhere near the bombed village. We were simply told that about 94 Islamic
State fighters had been killed.
In the end, "Madar-e Bamb-Ha" became the star of a grotesque reality television show. We know
how much it weighs, what it costs, its impact, its model number and its code name. We know nothing
about the people it killed except they are supposed to be nameless, faceless, cave-dwelling Islamic
State fighters. It was a loud blast, followed by a loud silence. It is yet another bomb to fall
on Afghan soil, and the future of my homeland remains as uncertain as ever.
Related: The 'Mother of All Bombs' blast site is still
off-limits, but here's who it may have killed
http://read.bi/2pCdkiN via @Business Insider
... In a move reminiscent of Vietnam-era body-count assessments, Afghan officials have released
estimates of the number of ISIS fighters killed in the MOAB strike, upping the total from 36 to
96 over the last six days. ...
West does not want to investigate incident in Idlib, Russian
diplomat says
Russian Politics & Diplomacy April 20, 8:28 UTC+3
"We guess that Americans probably have something to hide,
since they persistently want to take the Shayrat airport out
of the investigation," the diplomat said
THE HAGUE, April 20. /TASS/ Western countries do not want to
properly investigate the incident with the possible use of
chemical weapons in the Syrian province of Idlib, Alexander
Shulgin, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation
to the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)
told TASS.
On Wednesday, the meeting of the OPCW Executive Council
took place. During that meeting Russia and Iran submitted a
revised draft proposal for the investigation of the incident
in the Syrian province of Idlib.
However, the United States opposed the visit of the Syrian
Chemical Weapons Detection Mission to the Shayrat airfield,
since it "has nothing to do with the situation," the diplomat
said.
The US delegation "spoke out against the involvement of any
national experts in the work of the mission, they accused
Russia of trying to "mix tracks and lead the investigation to
a dead end."
"But the connection between the incident in Idlib and the
airfield of Shayrat was established by the Americans
themselves, who stated that the Syrian planes had flown from
this airfield," the Permanent Representative stressed.
"Therefore, it is absolutely necessary to determine if sarin
or other chemical munitions were stored there or not," he
stressed.
"Our view is that the Western countries are acting
extremely inconsistently," the Russian diplomat said.
"We guess that Americans probably have something to hide,
since they persistently want to take the Shayrat airport out
of the investigation. Maybe they knew from the start there
was no chemical weapons there, and all this was used only as
an excuse?" he added.
On April 7, US President Donald Trump ordered a strike on
Syria's Shayrat military air base located in the Homs
Governorate. The attack, involving 59 Tomahawk Land Attack
Missiles (TLAM), came as a response to the alleged use of
chemical weapons in the Idlib Governorate on April 4. The US
authorities believe that the airstrike on Idlib was launched
from the Shayrat air base.
"The conclusion of this summary of
data is obvious – the nerve agent attack described in the WHR
did not occur as claimed. There may well have been mass
casualties from some kind of poisoning event, but that event
was not the one described by the WHR."
He is not saying attack did not occur. He is only saying
the way the White House reported it was not entirely
accurate. Yuuuge difference. Like Sean Spicer gets the
details right every time - not.
"This means that the allegedly "high confidence" White House
intelligence assessment issued on April 11 that led to the
conclusion that the Syrian government was responsible for the
attack is not correct.
For such a report to be so egregiously in error, it could
not possibly have followed the most simple and proven
intelligence methodologies to determine the veracity of its
findings.
Since the United States justified attacking a Syrian
airfield on April 7, four days before the flawed National
Security Council intelligence report was released to the
Congress and the public, the conclusion that follows is that
the United States took military actions without the
intelligence to support its decision."
NYT Mocks Skepticism on Syria-Sarin Claims
April 18, 2017
Exclusive: The New York Times and other major media have
ruled out any further skepticism toward the U.S. government's
claim that Syrian President Assad dropped a sarin bomb on a
town in Idlib province, reports Robert Parry.
................
Today, however, particularly on foreign policy issues, the
major U.S. news outlets, such as The New York Times and The
Washington Post, apparently believe there is only one side to
a story, the one espoused by the U.S. government or more
generically the Establishment.
.....................
https://consortiumnews.com/2017/04/18/nyt-mocks-skepticism-on-syria-sarin-claims/
"judgement is the form
sanctioned in the Revised Version of the Bible, & the OED
prefers the older & more reasonable spelling. Judgement is
therefore here recommended –Fowler p. 310."
The dominant narrative in Moscow is TASS. I guess you work
for them now. BTW - I was doubting the Saddam WMD tale back
in 2002. So take your usual lies somewhere else troll.
Question is, what facts in the Corbett Report were wrong?
Seems to me that they pretty much nailed the contradictions
and hypocrisy of the trumped up charges against Syria.
But that doesn't dissuade pgl from believing everything
that Trump the compulsive liar says! Until Trump bombed
Syria, libruls like pgl didn't believe a word Trump said. Now
they'll believe anything!!!
After a lifetime of watching the US start pointless and
futile wars under false pretenses (Vietnam, Iraq, Libya,
etc.), pgl has no hesitation about gulping down the kool aid
as fast as he can! In fact, libruls like pgl seem absolutely
delighted when money that could be used for socially useful
purposes like education and healthcare get diverted to fight
phantom enemies abroad.
"... Petty rentiers live off others above the compensation for inflation and retireds are not earning
wages anymore. Even if they live on social security and pensions ..."
"... Income ranking regardless of source is a muddle ..."
"... Most people are in the job class, not the asset owning / one percent class. "High taxes and
redistribution do the job nicely, just ask Norway." Not a sufficient answer to issues Marxism raises,
just a facile one. ..."
"... I don't have a problem with class warfare. I don't have a problem with Democrats either. I
have a problem with losing. ..."
"... I agree with above on workers now retired. However their solidarity with the still active workers
is not a sure thing ..."
"... Yep. Further proof that the rich are parasites killing their host. ..."
"... Torturing, not killing is how they get their satisfaction. ..."
"... Yes, but their lack of restraint is killing the host. ..."
Bourgeois (petty) class is not the same thing as middle income: source of income matters hugely
Petty rentiers live off others above the compensation for inflation and retireds are not
earning wages anymore. Even if they live on social security and pensions
Easy on those retireds. Prefer to think of them as former wage class living off their social dividend
for past services rendered. In any case, retirement is still the best job that I have ever had.
Got to go cut the grass now, first time this season and way too tall. We were in a drought for
a time, but it broke last weekend.
Good thanks. I just think that paine's world view is dated. I don't like class war of either type
(down or up) it is too costly for the bystanders (just like any war). Today most people don't
fit cleanly into one class (workers) or the other (capitalists) -- actually they never did women
and children are a majority not to mention the increasing ranks of the retired. We live in a world
where most people are both workers and owners - that is almost the definition of a middle class
society. And many rely on "rents" from their hard won qualifications. Marxism is just too simple
a view of world, and as it turns out unnecessary. High taxes and redistribution do the job nicely,
just ask Norway.
Most people are in the job class, not the asset owning / one percent class. "High taxes and
redistribution do the job nicely, just ask Norway." Not a sufficient answer to issues Marxism
raises, just a facile one.
I don't have a problem with class warfare. I don't have a problem with Democrats either. I
have a problem with losing.
I also have a problem with winning and then just flubbing the replacement. I am mostly for
just letting future generations work this out however they can once given the tools of a more
democratic political system.
'For example, late in the Obama administration the board that is supposed to oversee the US
Postal Service had zero members out of the nine possible appointments. The reported reason is
that Senator Bernie Sanders put a hold on all possible appointees, as a show of solidarity with
postal workers. If it isn't obvious to you how Sanders preventing President Obama from appointing
new board members would influence the US Postal Service in the directions that Sanders would prefer,
given that President Trump could presumably appoint all nine members of the board, you are not
alone.'
"... By Amit Bhaduri, Professor Emeritus, Jawaharlal Nehru University and Visting Professor, Council for Social Development. Originally published at the New Economic Perspectives website ..."
"... why do we accept the artificial devolution of political economy into economics and politics? ..."
"... gets interest from ..."
"... Economics should be transferred to the divinity school. Then it will be untouchable! ..."
Yves here. I'm using the original headline from INET even though "false
arrogance" seems like rhetorical overkill. After all, arrogance and hubris are
closely related phenomena (my online thesaurus list "arrogance" as the first
synonym for "hubris"). But in Greek tragedies, the victims of hubris were all
legitimately accomplished, yet let their successes go to their heads. Thus the
use of "false arrogance" presumably means that economists' high opinion of
themselves is not warranted.
By Amit Bhaduri, Professor Emeritus,
Jawaharlal Nehru University and Visting Professor, Council for Social
Development. Originally published at the
New Economic Perspectives website
The problem of any branch of knowledge is to systematize a set of particular
observations in a more coherent form, called hypothesis or 'theory.' Two
problems must be resolved by those attempting to develop theory: (1) finding
agreement on what has been observed; (2) finding agreement on how to
systematize those observations.
In economics, there would be more agreement on the second point than on the
first. Many would agree that using the short-hand rules of mathematics is a
convenient way of systematizing and communicating knowledge - provided we have
agreement on the first problem, namely what observations are being
systematized. Social sciences face this problem in the absence of controlled
experiments in a changing, non-repetitive world. This problem may be more acute
for economics than for other branches of social science, because economists
like to believe that they are dealing with quantitative facts, and can use
standard statistical methods. However, what are quantitative facts in a
changing world? If one is dealing with questions of general interest that arise
in macroeconomics, one has to first agree on 'robust' so-called 'stylized'
facts based on observation: for example, we can agree that business cycles
occur; that total output grows as a long term trend; that unemployment and
financial crisis are recurring problems, and so on.
In the view of the economic world now dominant in major universities in the
United States - with its ripple effect around the world - is these are
transient states, aberrations from a perfectly functioning equilibrium system.
The function of theory, in this view, is to systematize the perfectly
functioning world as a deterministic system with the aid of mathematics. One
cannot but be reminded of the great French mathematician Laplace, who claimed
with chilling arrogance, two centuries after Newton, that one could completely
predict the future and the past on the basis of scientific laws of motion - if
only one knew completely the present state of all particles. When emperor
Napoleon asked how God fitted into this view, Laplace is said to have replied
that he did not need that particular hypothesis. Replace 'God' by
'uncertainty', and you are pretty close to knowing what mainstream
macro-economists in well-known universities are doing with their own variety of
temporal and inter-temporal optimization techniques, and their assumption of a
representative all knowing, all-seeing rational agent.
Some find this extreme and out-dated scientific determinism difficult to
stomach, but are afraid to move too far away, mostly for career reasons. They
change assumptions at the margin, but leave the main structure mostly
unchallenged. The tragedy of the vast, growing industry of 'scientific'
knowledge in economics is that students and young researchers are not exposed
to alternative views of how problems may be posed and tackled.
This exclusion of alternative views is not merely a question of vested
interest and the ideological view that we live in the best of all possible
worlds where optimum equilibria rule, except during transient moments. It
stems, also, from a misplaced notion of the aesthetics of good theory: Good
theory is assumed to be a closed axiomatic system. Its axioms can, at best, be
challenged empirically - e.g. testing the axiom of individual rationality by
setting up experimental devices - but such challenges hardly add up to any
workable alternative way of doing macro-economics.
There is however an alternative way, or, rather, there are alternative ways.
We must learn to accept that when undeniable facts stare us in the face and
shake up our political universe - e.g. growing unemployment is a problem, and
money and finance have roles beyond medium of payment in an uncertain world
shaken by financial crises - they are not transient problems; they are a part
of the system we are meant to study. It is no good saying my axiomatic system
does not have room for them. Instead, the alternative way is to take each
problem and devise the best ways in which we are able to handle them
analytically. Physicist Feynman (economist Dow (1995) made a similar
distinction) had made a distinction between the Greek way of doing mathematics
axiomatically, and the Babylonian way, which used separate known results
(theorems) without necessarily knowing the link among them. We must accept this
Babylonian approach to deal with macro-economic problems, without pretending
that it must follow from some grand axiom.
Awareness of history must enter economic theory by showing that concepts
such as cost, profit, wage, rent, and even commercial rationality have
anthropological dimensions specific to social systems. The humility to accept
that economic propositions cannot be universal would save us from
self-defeating arrogance.
I can't tell you how much I agree with the article.
For example, what CRITERIA are used that something is a "good" job. Before you
even start to debate the "facts" at least set up the criteria by which you will
evaluate them. It seems evident to me (pension, "good" – what is "good" health
care) but apparently, one of the "pre-eminent" economists, at least according
to another economist, thinks part time jobs are just as good as retail .
It works for me as an executive summary, but almost every paragraph would
probably require a similarly-sized essay to explain it. I agree with its
judgment that too many economists view the world as being governed by some
sort of universal economic law (or "laws"), when in reality those laws work
in very limited circumstances. Whether it's possible there could be such
laws some day, I don't have an opinion one way or another, and nothing in
this article sheds much light on that issue.
It's my experience that the overwhelming number of economists don't know
squat about employment/ unemployment, including why and employer hires and
why people look for and accept jobs. I assume this is because all of these
things are rare event in the personal lives of economists, who spend little
time looking for or between jobs. An economist is either employed, or he/she
is not an economist, and so once they gain experience with the above, they
are no longer in a position where they can speak about it among others still
in the field.
pension + black lung = good job? I mean if we're saying coal mining is a
"good job" now noone who can do better wants it though, that's what a
"good job" it is. Compensation matters but so do working conditions, and by
the way externalities matter, and "coal mining" as a good job certainly
doesn't account for that and the whole community being a cancer cluster etc.
As an economist, now semi retired (author, handyman, carer ), I can speak
of my own experiences.
I think one aspect of my degree course was a lack of normative studies
and not enough, 'well that is the mainstream theory, now this is what we
observe in practice' (and why eg control fraud, captured political
interests)
We were also mispoken to about how private banks create money, taxes fund
government spending and so on.
My choice to study economics was regretted years later, yet it gave me a
lift up career-wise.
It now seems sad that the profession has become mis-trusted and
denigrated. We don't all think alike.
When I studied economics, I realized how absurd a lot of it was so I
answered according to what the prof wanted to see.
However, I'm under the impression that my education in a Cdn
university was way less dogmatic than in the US.
Externalities were discussed, as was the dubious quality of GDP
growth. I had a book on the history of the Cdn financial system. It
explained very well how we went from gold standard to current system..
and how the leading countries used devaluations (France, UK, US) to their
advantage.
The problem with objective economists is that they realize that there
exists something called the law of unintended consequences. Once you
realize there are too many variables to control, you become a leaf in the
wind. And no one likes ambivalent people. They want leaders who KNOW the
answers. So leaders who appear to have answers are chosen.
Well said. I always appreciated having my undergraduate economic
theory class delivered by an active duty Marine Corp Major. A hardened
realist with a talent for illuminating theory.
No offense to Dean Baker, but what doesn't Krugman NOT get wrong? His
public disagreement with Real Economist, Steve Keen, would have been
hilarious had it not been so pathetic in demonstrating either what a sheer
idiot he is, or professional liar, whatever the case may be. (Krugman was
claiming that banks do not create credit as Krugman has no understanding of
that rather simple fractional reserve banking system. I once wrote to
Krugman to correct him on his supply-and-demand
theory
as to the
cause of that incredible spiking upwards of oil/energy costs around 2008,
even though the Baltic Exchange Index ad pretty much collapsed, with an
incredible number of oil tankers floating off the coasts of Singapore and
Malaysia, in an inactive state – – attempting to explain to him about
Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, et al., speculating up the prices on ICE
via commodity futures speculation or wash sales, and he didn't get that
either!)
But this reminds me of a local (Seattle) witless talk show (KIRO radio
station: the John and Curley Show) where the two snarky hosts, as ignorant
as can be, go on and on about their love of globalization, scoffing at those
who don't understand that offshoring manufacturing (they ignored all the
other categories) jobs to China and elsewhere was most clever, and "freed up
America to manufacture high-end goods" - evidently ignorant of the fact as
to where most chip fabs are located, and that 70% to 100% of many auto parts
and aircraft parts are manufactured overseas, shipped back to America only
for assembling purposes.
That ultra-boondoggle, the F-35, is manufactured across 9 foreign
countries plus America - wonder why it's such a cluster screw-up, huh?
A further aside: I don't see all Greek tragedies as turning on hubris.
Where is the hubris, say, of Oedipus? He is the King, there is a plague, the
people call on him for help, he helps. And the plague is vanquished (mind
you, he and his family – the ones still living – are in a mess. But that –
Sophocles seems to be saying – is Life).
The important thing according to the Greek scholar Michael Scott is to
recognize that Greek theater and Greek democracy are joined at the hip.
The former educated the electorate in the difficult choices they would
have to make as managers of their own political existence. We have
political theater today but no-one considers it instruction in one's
civic duty.
"We" here can say it to each other, over and over, in different and
ever-better-documented ways, that almost all economics and the "findings" it
generates, and almost all economists and their credentials, are BS, MS, Ph.D
(bullish!t, more sh!t, piled higher and deeper). But how to reach a larger, and
large enough, set of people who actually have votes that count and can "call
bullsh!t" and demand and get an end to the "policies" that are built on and
gather "legitimacy" from the "findings" of all those faux 'economists?" Who
after all do have those (feedback-loop-granted) "credentials," and so many
sous-chefs to keep pumping out the mega-gallons of Bernays sauce to make the
sh!t sandwiches seem au courant, de rigeur, and somehow palatable?
Agreed, I think that's the issue. Debating whether or not economics is a
science plays right into the prevailing power structure. Rather, the
question is why do we accept the artificial devolution of political economy
into economics and politics? There are lots of quantitative (and
qualitative) "facts" in the world about economics; it can be a scientific
discipline like any other. The important civic debate is the political part:
what values should guide our interpretation and implementation of those
economic understandings?
why do we accept the artificial devolution of political economy
into economics and politics?
This is the right question if we change "why to we accept" to "how is
it that we now have" – that is, if we ask an empirical, historical
question and not a metaphysical or psychological question. In an academic
sense, I would say the answer has to do with a long battle within
economics that was decisively won in the 50s or 60s by one "school" to
the extent that they could ostracize and ignore alternative "schools"
without much effective criticism, and an implicit "bargain" with
sociology and political science to craft an academic division of labor.
And then, inertia and serious pushback against any and all challengers.
In the non-academic world, the answer has to do with a certain
confluence of interest between neoclassical economics and existing social
and economic power.
"But how to reach a larger, and large enough, set of people who
actually have votes that count and can "call bullsh!t" and demand and get
an end to the "policies" that are built on and gather "legitimacy" from
the "findings" of all those faux 'economists?"
I think one method, to move in that direction, is to make a very small
number of very specific demands. Single payer healthcare, and a living wage.
We demand them!! Why don't we have them??!!
When the "economists" tie themselves up into illogical pretzels, trying
to "explain" why we can't have these nice things, they destroy their
credibility– to the point where their dogma is revealed as false and
inhuman. Then, we can shake off their dead hand and begin to build a new
society on more rational and humane principles.
I understand and share your frustration with a brand of economics
being used as a cudgel to tell us we cannot have nice things even as each
individual US state's GDP is the equivalent to that of (at least) a
medium EU nation which individually can afford far better health
insurance schemes than we do. It should be the economists' job to smooth
the way, to find ways so that we can have nice things not just leave it
at can't.
I disagree with washunate that to engage with economists who are
failing is a waste of time that plays into the hands of the prevailing
power structure. Neoliberal economists should be hearing from us that
they are not scientists no matter how much math they dress their pet
theories with. The greatest glory of a science is the predictive powers
of its foundational theories and in that regard neoliberal economics
fails spectacularly. It is not by any definition a science and they
should hear it as often as possible. Of course they know this in their
bones but their theories give their funders significant political cover
as they seek more undeserved goods for themselves. It is our job to
remind everyone who will hear that neoliberal theories are fiction not
science.
Why don't we have universal health care? Sadly, I think the answer is
quite simple – the elasticity of demand for health is infinite as the
alternative is death. Hence, Genentech can and does charge $20,000 for a
round of rituxan, which is very effective on non-Hodgkins lymphoma. Is it
worth it? Of course it is – lymphoma is deadly.
My point is that while the social benefit of universal health care is
high, so is the opportunity cost to the healthcare industry. And since
the industry is free to bribe politicians (sans a quid pro quo of course)
we are unlikely to ever get it. As discussed above, economics divorced
from politics is useless.
wow pretty awesome that Europe/Great Britain and Japan don't have
politicians . just teasing you, how though did those countries manage
to get around your problem is the question//
The British learned from the washout of the first world war that
the usual politicians could not be trusted to produce a country fit
for heroes as was promised, so they voted for socialism.
As for the Japanese, my memory is that the US set their health
system up! Dang!
The British polititician who lost out big time in that
election that brought the Labour Party's version of socialism
into power, was Winston Churchill – after the end of World War
Two.
It goes to show that you might need one kind of leader in
existential-wartime, and another for peacetime. However,
nowadays how do you know whether the there is an existential
struggle or not?
Yes, hubris was the tragic flaw. Treating it as a mere synonym for arrogance
is a fine example of why to avoid thesaurusi. A good dictionary with synonymies
is more reliable.
Speaking of hubris, there's a recently published book by a "professor of
national security" (good luck with that one!!!), Tom Nichols, titled:
The
Death of Expertise
, and it's a real hoot!
Not because the author got anything right, he got almost everything
completely wrong, and simply for that reason!
At one point in this garbage book by Nichols, he is repeating an exchange
between a political appointee whom he believes to be an "expert" and a grad
student concerning Reagan's spaced-based missile defense {SDI or Star Wars -
in this case I believe it was the space-based platform} of which much of it
turned out to be a hoax meant to mislead the Soviets – – and historically we
know the grad student was correct, and Jastrow, if I recall his name
correctly, was most incorrect – – but you would never know it from this
author! -- !
(If you observe any American space-based missile platforms, please be
sure to let me know!)
Besides acknowledging that economic theory is bound to time and society, it
would also be good to give some fresh thought to familiar economic concepts we
take as Bible-given.
Let's re-examine the ideas of interest [can we do without it], growth [can
we have a no-growth economy], and differential pay [need we pay a much higher
salary for "higher" work],
I would go on to look at profit [should there be profit in all economic
activities, such as health care, education, and others], oligopolies [is it
good to have very large corporations], and competition [should we promote
competition is all aspects of life].
Some of these have been questioned in these pages, such as the question of
oligopoly. I encourage raising more and continued questioning, as we've done
here.
It tends to draw fire when I mention it, but "Sharia or Islamic banking
and finance" is supposed to be done without any interest. And the system
(now under assault by Western interest-holders, by physical violence and
subversion of many types, and co-optation via corruption) kind of relies on
actual trust and risk-sharing. Here's some details for anyone "interested:"
http://www.islamic-banking.com/islamic_banking_principle.aspx
Thank you for your first reference, JTMcPhee, from the Institute of
Islamic Banking. It makes a great deal of sense that lenders bear risk
along with borrowers when we are talking about financing
entrepreneurship. In this view, the lender has
an interest in
rather than
gets interest from
. [I very much suspect that the
former
meaning became detached from the
latter
very
early on in human history, which is why the latter was condemned as
'usury', a result itself of an imbalance of power leading to coercive
lending.]
I wonder, however, about 'consumer lending' where there is clearly no
entrepreneurial risk.
Do you have a useful reference about how this 'consumer lending'
occurs without 'interest' in the Islamic world?
In 1955, the economist Simon Kuznets thought he had found such a law of
motion, one that determined the path of income inequality in a growing economy.
The scant data that he could gather together seemed to suggest that, as a
nation's GDP grows, inequality first rises, then levels off, and ultimately
starts to fall. Despite Kuznets' explicit warnings that his work was 5%
empirical, 95% speculation and "some of it possibly tainted by wishful
thinking", his findings were soon touted as an economic law of motion,
immortalized as "the Kuznets Curve"– resembling an upside-down U on the page –
and has been taught to every economics student for the past half century.
As for the curve's message? When it comes to inequality, it has to get worse
before it can get better, and more growth will make it better. And so the
Kuznets Curve became a perfect justification for trickle-down economics and for
enduring austerity today in the pursuit of making everyone better off some day.
Forty years later, in the 1990s, economists Gene Grossman and Alan Krueger
thought they too had found an economic law of motion, this time about
pollution. And it appeared to follow the very same trajectory as Kuznets' curve
on inequality: first rising then falling as the economy grows. Despite the
familiar caveats that the data were incomplete, and available for local air and
water pollutants only, their findings were quickly labeled the "Environmental
Kuznets Curve". And the message? When it comes to pollution, it has to get
worse before it can get better and – guess what – more growth will make it
better. Like a well-trained child, growth will apparently clean up after
itself.
Except it doesn't.
===================================================================
More fuel to the fire
They both seem typical of the human search for knowledge, with or without
resorting to the Scientific Method.
Typical in that
1. we fail to recognize our knowledge is always partial and limited
1A. Sometimes with the added arrogance of saying we know it's partial and
limited
(Some can't afford that added arrogance, because they have been exposed
already, like, say, fortune tellers)
And yet
2. we use that knowledge as if it's complete and applicable everywhere.
The Greek concept of hubris was not merely arrogance, but involved an INJURY
to others. (I discuss this in J is for Junk Economics.) The main examples were
creditors and land monopolizers - and kings. Nemesis not only fight hubris, but
specifically supported the weak and poor who were the main injured parties. The
iconography is quite similar to Sumerian Nanshe of Lagash.
So the concept of hubris is linked to affluenza: irresponsibility of wealth,
injuring society at large.
My Lord! The best economist on the planet is commenting! Our Economist
God! (As someone here aptly characterized you a few weeks ago when Yves ran
your discussion of Jubilees.)
I'll come right out with it, I'm a Michael Hudson super fan/groupie and
after Yves published one of your articles, which of course, I had already
read being a big fan/internet tube tracker, I suggested we concerned
citizens, get a Michael Hudson fan club going and somehow convince you to
take your stellar, economics distilling/demystifying self on the road along
with other exemplary economists and some musicians and comedians. Like that
stadium event you did in Europe or that Irish Econ Conference, but this
would be for the education of the vast citizenry, hence the addition of a
bit of music/comedy to entice. A touring TED/Coachella or South by Southwest
but for the Economic Edification of the 99%. (You wouldn't neccessarily have
to deliver all of your addresses in person. Some could be taped.)
You would be bigger than Bernie if the millenials became familiar with your
work, but more importantly, you and other like minded economists, could arm
people with the deeper understanding that is essential to overturning the
prevailing paradigm.
Thank You For Your Works!
Hope
ps I looked into getting Economic Rock Star as a website but it is taken.
Yes, 'injury' as in
injustice -- Of course that may entail
physical damage, but the recent tendency to reduce 'injury' to that narrow
sense alone misses most of the point.
Thanks for the connection to 'hubris', concerning which I was Classically
clueless until a few minutes ago. If hubris corresponds to injury in the
proper sense, perhaps 'arrogance' should be paired with 'insult', i.e. the
gratuitous gloating (= self-aggrandizement of the unjust) and gleeful
blaming of the injured that at least in living memory seems almost always to
be packaged with the injustice?
None of these practices is new, although their use has expanded over the
years. What does seem to be new, as Bettina Boxall of the Los Angeles Times
reported this week, is that some California farmers are now experimenting with
flooding fields that have grapevines and almond trees growing on them. And in
general, people in California are paying a lot more attention to groundwater
than they used to.
In 2014, the California Legislature approved a package of
groundwater-management laws - long after most other Western states had done so
- that are now slowwwwwly beginning to take effect. Local
groundwater-management agencies are being formed that will have to come up with
plans to reach groundwater sustainability within 20 years.
========================================================
You can look at this optimistically or pessimistically. With the population
growing year, after year, after year, it doesn't take high intelligence that
water demand will exceed water supply. And yet CA government choose to deal
with this freight train coming down the tracks in ..2014.
> With the population growing year, after year, after year, it doesn't
take high intelligence that water demand will exceed water supply.
Supply is not fixed. A lot of the current "supply" (rainfall) isn't being
retained, stored, or used intelligently. So there's still quite a bit of
room for population growth, particularly in the northern, wetter parts of
the state. Even without artificial restrictions on usage.
On the other had, I agree with the point that humanity should not have as
its primary goal the maximization of population on a single finite sphere.
And thus economics should not have as its primary goal the maximization of
"growth".
"The problem of any branch of knowledge is to systematize a set of
particular observations in a more coherent form, called hypothesis or 'theory.'
Two problems must be resolved by those attempting to develop theory: (1)
finding agreement on what has been observed; (2) finding agreement on how to
systematize those observations."
How will modern economists agree to agree on anything real now that
post-modernist thought and critique has entered the economics field?
"But Foucault had belatedly spotted that post-modernism and "neo-liberal"
free-market economics, which had developed entirely independently of each other
over the previous half-century, pointed in much the same direction. "
http://www.economist.com/node/8401159
adding: The economists who use a post-modernist approach( all is
uncertain and events are transient and therefore immaterial to the core
theory) to defend a scientific determinist* core theory are engaging in
double-think. I'm not an economist so maybe there's a
there
there I
cannot see.
*
"Popper insisted that the term "scientific" can only be applied to
statements that are falsifiable. Popper's book The Open Universe: An
Argument For Indeterminism defines scientific determinism as the claim that
any event can be rationally predicted, with any desired degree of
precision, if we are given a sufficiently precise description of past
events, together with all the laws of nature, a notion that Popper asserted
was both falsifiable and adequately falsified by modern scientific
knowledge.
"In his book, A Brief History of Time, Hawking claims that predictability
is required for 'scientific determinism' (start of chapter 4). He defines
'scientific determinism"" as meaning: 'something that will happen in the
future can be predicted.' "
By measures that register actual human engagement – rather than fake
accounts and bot activity - Facebook does not seem to be growing at all. In
2016, its users generated about 25 percent less original content than in 2015.
The time users spend on Facebook dropped from 24 hours in mid-2015 to 18.9
hours in February, Comscore reported.
========================================
One can only hope.
I am only on Facebook because a friend and co-worker signed me up (without my
knowledge or consent, but I think most people looked upon it like getting a
greeting card) back in the day when the Facebook fad was at its peak. And I was
interested in it as a social and economic phenomenon.
My own anecdotal experience is that the most ardent users (multi daily
postings) have declined by 95%. The occasional 2 or 3 times weekly posters are
down to once monthly, and so on.
And the response to postings seems to have had even greater declines. Even good
friends who I used to TRY and keep up with postings, I scarcely ever bother now
– and when I do open one, people who used to get near 100 "looks" have 2 or 3 –
maybe once in a while for something real (somebody died, instead this is a
picture of a meal I eated) , maybe 5.
Woolworths used to be a juggernaut – so was Sears. Who remembers "My Space"
???
I saw too many people turning into Trump Fraidy Cats before the election
("Vote for Hillary because Trump! He's so awful!") or Vote Shamers ("You're
voting third party? Shame on you!").
After the election, Facebook seemed like a psych ward. Too many sobbing,
crying, and raving loons for my taste.
Cutting back on Facebook is part of my larger goal of spending less time
on social media and more time in social reality.
Bravo, another critical issue absent from MSM or even worse purposefully
being confused.
It would help a lot if people take time to understand the money in itself
that permeates every aspect of life since it is a central feature of any
financial system under any economic system ancient or contemporary.
Here is an simple essay that explains without financial jargon what money is
in itself as a social construct and whom in reality it serves:
Economics isn't economical, it is political-economics. Politics first,
economics second. Politics is the art, not the science, of sharing out the
wealth, power and fame in a society in an organized way. If your politics is
corrupt, then your economics will be corrupt also.
Blame Pythagoras. From Pythagoras and Croesus, we got the idea that value
was a number, and that everything had a value, and that a market (aka city
state) is where the hidden hand determined the relationship between prices,
goods and services. The actual "cost" per capita, of running a subsistence
agrarian society hasn't changed since the days of Babylon. We simply have
more technical bookkeeping (and accounting). A shekel was the weight of 180
grains of dried barley seed. The Babylonians didn't have a primitive society
they had monarchy, theocracy, militarism and receipts. A thing might be
valued in so many shekels of silver, but the receipt accomplished what a
coin would have, because it was honored. Clay money instead of paper money.
You got your receipt for your socialist food dole, went to the temple
granary to pick it up (this was long before Rome), visited the temple
prostitutes (way better than Roman games), then went home. And as has been
pointed out, this was a clay fiat and honesty was just as vanishing then
as now. And yes, it was a debt system, not a credit system. The US and the
world has moved from a credit system to a debt system in the last 100 years.
The Great Whore, Babylon is still awaiting her destiny.
"Daniel reads the words MENE, MENE, TEKEL, PARSIN and interprets them for
the king: MENE, God has numbered the days of your kingdom and brought it to
an end; TEKEL, you have been weighed and found wanting; and PERES, the
kingdom is divided and given to the Medes and Persians."
Having once held a 1776 edition of Wealth of Nations in my hand I recall
Smith was a Moral Philosopher and that Economics was a branch of Moral
Philosophy choosing between Goods and Bads and seeing Utility Functions as
Demand Curves.
Then I recall Keynes, the Mathematician, writing beautiful prose in The
General Theory. Somewhere the Reduced Form Equation boys started to play with
Stochastic Variables to make the R2 fit Deterministic equations replaced Moral
choices and an obsession with Beta proceeded to ignore Alpha.
Economics is something of an academic joke. Steve Keen has introduced some
life into a dead subject with his Hyman MInsky analysis since so much of
Economic Theory as propounded is simply a Java Box running inside the main
system
We must learn to accept that when undeniable facts stare us in the face
and shake up our political universe - e.g.
growing unemployment is a
problem
, and money and finance have roles beyond medium of payment in an
uncertain world shaken by financial crises - they are not transient
problems; they are a part of the system we are meant to study.
I think studying some of these things might be better left to psychologists.
I emphasized the phrase about unemployment as a case in point – it could be
argued that we have the unemployment we have right now thanks to telling
ourselves, collectively, that we can't employ people. Anyone who chooses to
look around and observe can find things we could be paying people to do, like
fixing our streets and bridges, educating our young, exploring space and
advancing science, providing medical care to the significant portion of our
population who don't have access, but we are told that this would be bad for
some reason, and many of us seem to believe this.
I don't know if that confirms the author's ideas or not, but as several of
us have observed now in these comments, our economic problems have less to do
with the dismal science (or lack of it) and more to do with what people are
inclined to believe is true, regardless of the facts.
Actually, economics is more like a branch of medieval scholasticism. It's
about forcing reality to fit dogma by imposing methodological and
epistemological gag rules on its practitioners so that they're blinded to
substance by form - and the non-expert public is bamboozled into mute
acquiescence. Econned, as Yves would say.
Yes, I'm baffled that we hear all this about oh jobs are going away becuz
robots and maybe UBI and on and on when there are SO MANY UNFILLED JOBS staring
us in the face where filling them would be of enormous benefit to all. Are they
looking around at ALL?
As you can see, I'm baffled, too. UBI might be a good idea, and various
forms of technology have certainly eliminated jobs over the years, but when
so much work remains to be done, I don't see how you can argue that we've
reached an age where most of us are truly unemployable.
FTM, what is employment? Put most simply, it is one person or entity who
has money paying someone to perform some task(s), possibly to a minimum
acceptable quality. There are many forms of work we do that no one wants to
pay us to do. My work at an amateur theatre falls into that category, as
does the work of the people in the food bank/soup kitchen next door. Maybe
our concept of what constitutes useful work needs to change, too.
The place to start paying decent wages is for all kinds of
housework, daycare and elder care. All are undervalued and underpaid
while that latter two are essential for a healthy community. None of
these should be consigned to robots as only human contact can do the
job well.
But the irony of basic income is that's one of the things it
does. A huge portion of "housework, daycare, and elder care" is
better done
informally
, outside of the GDP-measured formal
economy of employers and jobs and wages and benefits, especially
given how crappy the formal jobs tend to be in those sectors.
Income supports that lack formal work requirements by definition
create more time for people to do things in the informal economy.
But wouldn't it be better to pay parents and caregivers for
caring? First of all, it's work and deserves to be remunerated
like work. Second, keeping care work in the informal economy
only "works" if people have other income with which to satisfy
their needs and wants. There is no possibility that any basic
income grant will provide a single parent with the funds to
allow them to work taking care of their children, which is the
socially optimal situation in almost all cases.
pretty funny. that's been standard econ cirricuulum at the University of
Magonia for, oh, let's see, 1, 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9. Nine! Nine years!
Pretty funny. Is this still April 1st? I guess not. Oh well, a day late, a
dollar short (no pun intended) is better than a year late and a grand short, or
a century late and a million short. There's a pattern there! it goes back to
the Testament of Amram, Manuscript B. The Dead Sea Scrolls. That's what we
teach in econo 101 during the "money" unit. Money, at the Universtiy of Magonia,
is an idea that mediates the boundary wtihin a society between cooperation and
conflict.. That's not a theory, it's a reality. Everybody has heard this before
in the peanut gallery so I won't reapeat myself.
They should send a delegation from Harvard to the Universtiy of Magonia for
a seminar in money and economics. hahahaha. That's pretty funny even to think
about. Believe me. They'd learn a few things but they might get ontological
shock and end up like MIT mathematical economist Ed Bucks who spent two months
in the New Hampshire woods looking at deer through binoculars in search of a
theory of economics that could survive a collision with nature AND be
deterministic and mathematically rigorous. He pretty much had a nervous
breakdown and ended up back at MIT sucking up grant money like a baby at his
mamas tits. Many are called, but few are chosen. LOL
Paul Krugman Gets Retail Wrong: They are Not Very Good Jobs
Paul Krugman used his column * this morning to ask why we don't pay as much attention to the
loss of jobs in retail as we do to jobs lost in mining and manufacturing. His answer is that in
large part the former jobs tend to be more white and male than the latter. While this is true,
although African Americans have historically been over-represented in manufacturing, there is
another simpler explanation: retail jobs tend to not be very good jobs.
The basic story is that jobs in mining and manufacturing tend to offer higher pay and are far
more likely to come with health care and pension benefits than retail jobs. A worker who loses
a job in these sectors is unlikely to find a comparable job elsewhere. In retail, the odds are
that a person who loses a job will be able to find one with similar pay and benefits.
A quick look at average weekly wages ** can make this point. In mining the average weekly wage
is $1,450, in manufacturing it is $1,070, by comparison in retail it is just $555. It is worth
mentioning that much of this difference is in hours worked, not the hourly pay. There is nothing
wrong with working shorter workweeks (in fact, I think it is a very good idea), but for those
who need a 40 hour plus workweek to make ends meet, a 30-hour a week job will not fit the bill.
This difference in job quality is apparent in the difference in separation rates by industry.
(This is the percentage of workers who lose or leave their job every month.) It was 2.4 percent
for the most recent month in manufacturing. By comparison, it was 4.7 percent in retail, almost
twice as high. (It was 5.2 percent in mining and logging. My guess is that this is driven by logging,
but I will leave that one for folks who know the industry better.)
Anyhow, it shouldn't be a mystery that we tend to be more concerned about the loss of good
jobs than the loss of jobs that are not very good. If we want to ask a deeper question, as to
why retail jobs are not very good, then the demographics almost certainly play a big role.
Since only a small segment of the workforce is going to be employed in manufacturing regardless
of what we do on trade (even the Baker dream policy will add at most 2 million jobs), we should
be focused on making retail and other service sector jobs good jobs. The full agenda for making
this transformation is a long one (higher minimum wages and unions would be a big part of the
picture, along with universal health care insurance and a national pension system), but there
is one immediate item on the agenda.
All right minded people should be yelling about the Federal Reserve Board's interest rate hikes.
The point of these hikes is to slow the economy and reduce the rate of job creation. The Fed's
concern is that the labor market is getting too tight. In a tighter labor market workers, especially
those at the bottom of the pecking order, are able to get larger wage increases. The Fed is ostensibly
worried that this can lead to higher inflation, which can get us to a wage price spiral like we
saw in the 70s.
As I and others have argued, *** there is little basis for thinking that we are anywhere close
to a 1970s type inflation, with inflation consistently running below the Fed's 2.0 percent target,
(which many of us think is too low anyhow). I'd love to see Krugman pushing the cause of full
employment here. We should call out racism and sexism where we see it, but this is a case where
there is a concrete policy that can do something to address it. Come on Paul, we need your voice.
PK: Consider what has happened to department stores. Even as Mr. Trump was boasting about saving
a few hundred jobs in manufacturing here and there, Macy's announced plans to close 68 stores
and lay off 10,000 workers. Sears, another iconic institution, has expressed "substantial doubt"
about its ability to stay in business.
Overall, department stores employ a third fewer people now than they did in 2001. That's half
a million traditional jobs gone - about eighteen times as many jobs as were lost in coal mining
over the same period.
And retailing isn't the only service industry that has been hit hard by changing technology.
Another prime example is newspaper publishing, where employment has declined by 270,000, almost
two-thirds of the work force, since 2000. ...
(To those that had them, they were probably
pretty decent jobs, albeit much less 'gritty'
than mining or manufacturing.)
There is a lot of elitism to go around. People will be much more reluctant to express publicly
the same as in private (or pseudonymously on the internet?). But looking down on other people
and their work is pretty widespread (and in either case there is a lot of assumption about the
nature of the work and the personal attributes of the people doing it - usually of a derogatory
type in both cases).
I find it plausible that Krugman was referring those widespread stereotypes about job categories
that (traditionally?) have not required a college degree, or have been relatively at the low end
of the esteem scale in a given industry (e.g. in "tech" and manufacturing, QA/testing related
work).
It must be possible to comment on such stereotypes, but there is of course always the risk
of being thought to hold them oneself, or indeed being complicit in perpetuating them.
As a thought experiment, I suggest reviewing what you yourself think about occupations not
held by yourself, good friends, and family members and acquaintainces you like/respect (these
qualifications are deliberate). For example, you seem to think not very highly of maids.
Of course, being an RN requires significantly more training than being a maid, and not just
once when you start in your career. But at some level of abstraction, anybody who does work where
their autonomy is quite limited (i.e. they are not setting objectives at any level of the organization)
is "just a worker". That's the very stereotype we are discussing, isn't it?
Krugman thinks nurses are the equivalent of maids...
[ The problem is that Paul Krugman dismissed the work of nurses and maids and gardeners as
"menial." I find no evidence that Krugman understands that even after conditionally apologizing
to nurses. ]
"... In fact, it wasn't even $800 billion, but the Washington Post has never been very good with numbers. The issue came up in a column by Paul Kane telling Republicans that they don't have to just focus on really big items. ..."
"... The stimulus was actually closer to $700 billion since around $70 billion of the "stimulus" involved extensions of tax breaks that would have been extended in almost any circumstances. This was actually a very small response to the collapse of a housing bubble that cost the economy close to $1,200 billion dollars in annual demand (6-7 percent of GDP). ..."
Washington Post Gets It Wrong: An $800 Billion Stimulus
Following the Collapse of the Housing Bubble Was Not "Big"
In fact, it wasn't even $800 billion, but the Washington
Post has never been very good with numbers. The issue came up
in a column by Paul Kane telling Republicans that they don't
have to just focus on really big items. The second paragraph
refers to the Democrat's big agenda after President Obama
took office:
"Everyone knows the big agenda they pursued - an $800
billion economic stimulus, a sweeping health-care law and an
overhaul of Wall Street regulations."
The stimulus was actually closer to $700 billion since
around $70 billion of the "stimulus" involved extensions of
tax breaks that would have been extended in almost any
circumstances. This was actually a very small response to the
collapse of a housing bubble that cost the economy close to
$1,200 billion dollars in annual demand (6-7 percent of GDP).
The Obama administration tried to counteract this huge
loss of demand with a stimulus that was roughly 2 percent of
GDP for two years and then trailed off to almost nothing.
This was way too small as some of us argued at the time. **
The country has paid an enormous price for this inadequate
stimulus with the economy now more than 10 percent below the
level that had been projected by the Congressional Budget
Office for 2017 before the crash. This gap is close to $2
trillion a year or $6,000 for every person in the country.
This is known as the "austerity tax," the cost the country
pays because folks like Peter Peterson and the Washington
Post (both the opinion and news section) endlessly yelled
about debt and deficits at a time when they clearly we not a
problem.
It is also worth noting that the overhaul of Wall Street
was not especially ambitious. It left the big banks largely
in tack and did not involve prosecuting any Wall Street
executives for crimes they may have committed during the
bubble years, such as knowingly passing on fraudulent
mortgages in mortgage backed securities.
"... A big chunk of Trump's voters voted for him in spite of their dislike. ..."
"... European neoliberalism in many ways created the conditions that the far right has recently exploited to convince people that their problems are caused by immigrants. Does what's going on in Finland with the decline in the far-right parties and the increasing success of left parties point to a way out throughout Europe (and maybe here as well)? ..."
"... The big difference is that in the US the "R&D" are so dominant that in combination with how the election system is structured, they are basically the only two national parties. The option of jumping between "significant fringe" parties that influence policy through coalition forming simply doesn't exist. ..."
"... US presidential, senatorial, and congressional candidates basically run not with a platform, but with a party. This is also how Sanders got outmaneuvered - he couldn't run as a non-Democrat. ..."
"Liberals now looking to commune with the Trump base should
check out the conscientious effort to do exactly that by the
Berkeley sociologist Arlie Russell Hochschild. As we learn in
her election-year best seller, Strangers in Their Own Land:
Anger and Mourning on the American Right, she poured her
compassion, her anthropological sensibility, and five years
of her life into "a journey to the heart of the American
right." Determined to burst out of her own "political
bubble," Hochschild uprooted herself to the red enclave of
Lake Charles, Louisiana, where, as she reports, there are no
color-coded recycling bins or gluten-free restaurant entrées.
There she befriended and chronicled tea-party members who
would all end up voting for Trump. Hochschild liked the
people she met, who in turn reciprocated with a "teasing,
good-hearted acceptance of a stranger from Berkeley." And
lest liberal readers fear that she was making nice with
bigots in the thrall of their notorious neighbor David Duke,
she offers reassurances that her tea-partyers "were generally
silent about blacks." (Around her, anyway.)
Hochschild's
mission was inspired by Thomas Frank's What's the Matter With
Kansas? She wanted "to scale the empathy wall" and "unlock
the door to the Great Paradox" of why working-class voters
cast ballots for politicians actively opposed to their
interests. Louisiana is America's ground zero for industrial
pollution and toxic waste; the stretch of oil and
petrochemical plants along the Mississippi between New
Orleans and Baton Rouge is not known as "cancer alley" for
nothing. Nonetheless, the kindly natives befriended by
Hochschild not only turned out for Trump but have
consistently voted for local politicians like Steve Scalise
(No. 3 in Paul Ryan's current House leadership), former
senator David Vitter, and former governor Bobby Jindal, who
rewarded poison-spewing corporations with tax breaks and
deregulation even as Louisiana's starved public institutions
struggled to elevate the health and education of a populace
that ranks near the bottom in both among the 50 states.
Hochschild's newfound friends, some of them in dire health,
have no explanation for this paradox, only lame, don't–wanna–rock–Big
Oil's–tanker excuses. Similarly unpersuasive is their
rationale for hating the federal government, given that it
foots the bill for 44 percent of their state's budget.
Everyone who takes these handouts is a freeloader except
them, it seems; the government should stop favoring those
other moochers (none dare call them black) who, in their
view, "cut the line." Never mind that these white voters who
complain about "line cutters" are themselves guilty of
cutting the most important line of all - the polling-place
line - since they are not subjected to the voter-suppression
efforts being inflicted on minorities by GOP state
legislatures, the Roberts Supreme Court, and now the Jeff
Sessions–led Department of Justice.
In "What So Many People Don't Get About the U.S. Working
Class," a postelection postmortem published to much op-ed
attention by the Harvard Business Review (and soon to be
published in expanded form as what will undoubtedly be
another best-selling book), the University of California law
professor Joan C. Williams proposes that other liberals do in
essence what Hochschild did. "The best advice I've seen so
far for Democrats is the recommendation that hipsters move to
Iowa," Williams writes - or to any other location in the
American plains where "shockingly high numbers of
working-class men are unemployed or on disability, fueling a
wave of despair deaths in the form of the opioid epidemic."
She further urges liberals to discard "the dorky arrogance
and smugness of the professional elite" (epitomized in her
view by Hillary Clinton) that leads them to condescend to
disaffected working-class whites and "write off blue-collar
resentment as racism."
Hochschild anticipated that Williams directive, too. She's
never smug. But for all her fond acceptance of her new
Louisiana pals, and for all her generosity in portraying them
as virtually untainted by racism, it's not clear what such
noble efforts yielded beyond a book, many happy memories of
cultural tourism, and confirmation that nothing will change
anytime soon. Her Louisianans will keep voting for candidates
who will sabotage their health and their children's
education; they will not be deterred by an empathic Berkeley
visitor, let alone Democratic politicians."
"We hear people constantly saying 'Nothing will change his
supporters' minds. They're with him no matter what.' First of
all this is enervating defeatism which is demoralizing and
loserish. But it also misses the point. It is factually
wrong. For the supporters those people have in mind, they're
right.
They're true believers, authoritarians who are energized
by Trump's destructive behavior. But there are not that many
of those people.
A big chunk of Trump's voters voted for
him in spite of their dislike.
Those people can be
carved away. But Democrats will regain power by winning it in
what amount to our 21st century internal American
borderlands, not in the big cities or rural areas mainly but
in between. So what's happening now to lay that groundwork
for 2018?"
DD:
European neoliberalism in many ways created the
conditions that the far right has recently exploited to
convince people that their problems are caused by immigrants.
Does what's going on in Finland with the decline in the
far-right parties and the increasing success of left parties
point to a way out throughout Europe (and maybe here as
well)?
MB: The Finland situation is very promising from a
leftist view. Finland's political system is mostly dominated
by six parties: the Green Party, similar to the Greens here;
a Social Democratic Party. which is like the Labor Party; the
Left Alliance, which is the communists and socialists. This
is the Left.
On the other side, you have the Centre Party, which was
like the Farmers' Party but doesn't really have an economic
definition, so sometimes they join coalitions with left-wing
or right-wing parties; you have the National Coalition Party,
the right-wing business party; then, lately, you have the
Finns Party - which used to be called the True Finns, which
kind of gives you a hint of what they're about. They're like
an ethno-nationalist party, though they will deny that.
In 2015, the top three parties in Finland were
conservative: in order was the Centre Party, the National
Coalition Party, and then the Finns. They came together and
formed the center-right Bourgeois Government (which is what
they actually call their governments). Combined, the three
parties have about 60 percent of the public behind them.
The Finns join the center-right party that's mostly
interested in austerity of various sorts - trimming down
wages and benefits, increasing competitiveness of exports,
which also means trimming down labor costs and making people
work longer and cutting vacations.
When the Finns join that government, their support just
collapses. It goes from over 20 percent to less than 10
percent over a year or two. If you read the Finnish
newspapers, the consensus is that they are basically
supported by blue-collar people who are also racists. But
ultimately, they don't want a party that comes in and cuts
their wages and benefits even if the party is racist and
satisfies their anti-immigrant tendencies.
Their support base looks at the Finns Party and says,
"You're a traitor to the working class - to hell with you."
Only left parties picked up voters as the ethno-nationalist
party declined.
This shows that even people who are have very bad views on
immigration and diversity - if they get screwed on just basic
pocketbook issues, they jump ship and go back over to their
old homes in the Left.
That's a good sign for the American context, especially
because Trump and the Republicans are not going to run a
government that benefits working-class people. His base is
going to get disillusioned and be open to supporting a
Bernie-style candidate or someone like that who speaks to
their issues and actually intends to follow through with
them, instead of just using them rhetorically and then
abandoning them once they get into office. So it's promising.
The big difference is that in the US the "R&D" are so
dominant that in combination with how the election system is
structured, they are basically the only two national parties.
The option of jumping between "significant fringe" parties
that influence policy through coalition forming simply
doesn't exist.
US presidential, senatorial, and
congressional candidates basically run not with a platform,
but with a party. This is also how Sanders got outmaneuvered
- he couldn't run as a non-Democrat.
"... Secondly, in football there's a high ratio of noise to signal: performances are due in part
to luck. This is true not just in football. ..."
"... Thirdly, imagine a top goalkeeper were playing for a better side than Sunderland. His performances
would then make a difference to his team's points: a couple of great saves per game would convert losses
to draws or wins, rather than 4-0 defeats into 2-0 ones. His marginal product would be higher. ..."
"... This tells us that, in teams, an individual's marginal product is beyond his control: if Pickford
had better colleagues, his marginal product would be higher. A similar problem arises in many large
firms. As the late Herbert Scarf wrote: ..."
David Moyes says Jordan Pickford has been a better player than Dele Alli this season. This
set me wondering about marginal productivity theory.
To see my point, think about how we'd test Moyes' claim. We could look at what the two teams
did in games which Alli and Pickford missed. But there are too few of these to draw robust inferences,
and doing so would be impossible for a player who hadn't missed any games*. Instead, we could
compare how Sunderland would have done if Pickford were replaced with a next-best alternative
to how S***s would have done with a next-best replacement for Alli. In effect, we're asking: what
are their marginal products?
I suspect that Pickford's marginal product consists in converting heavy defeats into narrower
ones: this still leaves Sunderland relegated, only with a lesser goal difference. Alli, by contrast,
has converted draws or losses into wins. That's a bigger difference.
This, I think, highlights three problems with marginal productivity analysis.
The first is that marginal product is the result of a hypothetical question. For example, in
considering my own marginal product, I ask: how would the IC do without me? That's a hypothetical
to which we cannot give a precise answer. This is true of much of neoclassical economics. As Noah
says:
Demand curves aren't actually directly observable. They're hypotheticals - "If the price were
X, how much would you buy?"
In this, he's echoing Sraffa:
The marginal approach requires attention to be focused on change, for without change either
in the scale of an industry or in the 'proportions of the factors of production' there can be
neither marginal product nor marginal cost. In a system in which, day after day, production continued
unchanged in those respects, the marginal product of a factor (or alternatively the marginal cost
of a product) would not merely be hard to find - it just would not be there to be found. (Production
of Commodities by Means of Commodities, pv)
Secondly, in football there's a high ratio of noise to signal: performances are due in
part to luck. This is true not just in football.
Consider two men of equal ability who become CFOs of start-ups. One start-up becomes massive,
the other struggles. The man who joined the former will be many times richer than the latter.
But that's more to do with fortune than with human capital or marginal product: firms don't usually
grow big because they've got a slightly better CFO than the firm down the road. Anyone who's mind
isn't befuddled by Randian nonsense will know that our lives and incomes are the product of luck.
But we know that people are terrible at distinguishing luck from skill – in part because they
suffer from the outcome bias.
Thirdly, imagine a top goalkeeper were playing for a better side than Sunderland. His performances
would then make a difference to his team's points: a couple of great saves per game would convert
losses to draws or wins, rather than 4-0 defeats into 2-0 ones. His marginal product would be
higher.
This tells us that, in teams, an individual's marginal product is beyond his control: if
Pickford had better colleagues, his marginal product would be higher. A similar problem arises
in many large firms. As the late Herbert Scarf wrote:
If economists are to study economies of scale, and the division of labor in the large firm,
the first step is to take our trusty derivatives, pack them up carefully in mothballs and put
them away respectfully; they have served us well for many a year. But derivatives are prices,
and in the presence of indivisibilities in production, prices simply don't do the jobs that they
were meant to do. They do not detect optimality; they aren't useful in comparative statics; and
they tell us very little about the organized complexity of the large firm.
For me, flaws such as these mean that marginal product theory doesn't make much sense as an
explanation of wage levels. We should abandon it as a mental model in favour of bargaining (pdf)
models. In these, matches between workers and jobs lead to surpluses, and the surplus is divided
according to the balance of power.
In such models, human capital raises wages insofar as it generates surplus and gives its holders
outside options which enhance their bargaining power. But human capital and "marginal product"
aren't the whole story. All the things that affect bargaining power, such as technology and unions,
also matter. Such models are consistent with the theory that inequality is due to the rise of
superstar firms (pdf). They're also consistent with the fact that minimum wages don't destroy
many jobs. And they help explain rising CEO pay better than marginal product theory.
What I'm appealing for here is for economists to abandon unscientific just-so stories and to
think instead about the real world. In this world, wages are determined not by unobservable entities
such as marginal product but by – among other things – power (pdf).
* S***s did well during Harry Kane's injury. Few would say this is evidence that Kane is a
poor player, and not should they.
See Denis Drew. I guess Keynes was in favor of trade unions but Keynesian economists never discuss
them. Neither do bloviating, blowhards like EMichael.
PGL used to brag about how Hillary supported striking Verizon workers during the election but
that was just a photo-op, like how all of the building trade unions hob-nobbed with Trump. It's
BS. Unions have collapsed under the watch of New Democrats. They've done nothing.
In his final speech Obama said we have to beware of automatization. There's no evidence of
it. It's an excuse. No, the Democrats have sold us out. So what that they raised taxes on the
rich a little. The rich have never had is so good.
"The first is that marginal product is the result of a hypothetical question. For example, in
considering my own marginal product, I ask: how would the IC do without me? That's a hypothetical
to which we cannot give a precise answer. This is true of much of neoclassical economics. As Noah
says:
Demand curves aren't actually directly observable. They're hypotheticals - "If the price were
X, how much would you buy?"
In this, he's echoing Sraffa:
The marginal approach requires attention to be focused on change, for without change either
in the scale of an industry or in the 'proportions of the factors of production' there can be
neither marginal product nor marginal cost. In a system in which, day after day, production continued
unchanged in those respects, the marginal product of a factor (or alternatively the marginal cost
of a product) would not merely be hard to find - it just would not be there to be found. (Production
of Commodities by Means of Commodities, pv)"
It's a cliché that the government builds "bridges to nowhere" that the private sector never
would build. That's true. And it's a credit to the public sector. Bridges to nowhere are what
turn nowheres into somewheres. We need many, many more bridges to nowhere.
Finally, I want to express my annoyance at a trope in punditry about air travel that is as
common as it is mistaken. Here is Kevin Drum:
So flying sucks because we, the customers, have made it clear that we don't care. We love to
gripe, but we just flatly aren't willing to pay more for a better experience. Certain individuals
(i.e., the 10 percent of the population over six feet tall) are willing to pay for legroom. Some
are willing to pay more for extra baggage. Some are willing to pay more for a window seat. But
most of us aren't. If the ticket price on We Care Airlines is $10 more, we click the link for
Suck It Up Airlines. We did the same thing before the web too. As usual, the fault lies not in
the stars, but in ourselves.
Here is Megan McArdle, in a piece titled (by somebody) "Hate Flying? It's Your Fault":
Ultimately, the reason airlines cram us into tiny seats and upcharge for everything is that
we're out there on Expedia and Kayak, shopping on exactly one dimension: the price of the flight.
To win business, airlines have to deliver the absolute lowest fare. And the way to do that is
. . . to cram us into tiny seats and upcharge for everything. If American consumers were willing
to pay more for a better experience, they'd deliver it. We're not, and they don't.
So it is my fault that for my travel needs, I have very few choices of carriers, if I have a strong
preference for few stopovers? As soon as I accept 1-2 additional stops than minimally necessary
(and the corresponding doubling or more of travel time, nevermind increased risk of missing flights,
delays, etc.), I can find more connections.
My problem, if I pay for the trip, is flight availability. It is usually not an option to pay
even twice as much for flying when or how I want or need to.
I know absolutely nothing about the economics of air travel (any experts here?), but how about
airport gates and airport passenger/flight processing capacity as bottlenecks, and long-distance
flights favoring if not requiring larger aircraft (which cannot use every airport for regular
flights). With larger aircraft you have the problem of selling all seats on all flights, which
would seem to favor multi-hop trips via major routes, with all the multiple de/boardings, security
checks, and as we have recently seen increased chances of "re-accommodation".
When I travel for business, my choices are further restricted by "appropriate" departure and arrival
times. Then it also becomes a multivariate problem - arriving one day earlier leads to one more
hotel stay, car rental day, etc.
In my current situation I could "save" the company around a hundred bucks by using a cheaper
carrier that has a direct flight from where I am to where I need to go, and for returning, there
is a multi-hop flight that takes ~3 hours longer to get home than the hundred bucks more expensive
competition (arriving not in the late evening but after midnight), because the first leg of the
flight is in the opposite direction of where I need to go. No thanks, if I can avoid it! I take
the more "expensive" carrier which has direct flights in both directions.
It seems to me it may be a similar problem as the debate over public transit experience vs. driving.
In public transit, unless your travel endpoints are close to a single route, it is usually the
line changes and distance between end stations and the actual destinations that make up half the
total time or more.
The problem can be "addressed" by more N-to-N routes, but then the transit agency has a problem
with getting enough ridership on every route (and where to store all the transit vessels outside
of peak traffic hours, and fleet operation/maintenance overheads, etc.).
"... Wealthy individuals and large corporations are able to capture and decide on their own what to do with the surplus, with all the social ramifications associated with their decisions to invest where and when they want-or not to invest, and thus to accumulate cash, repay debt, and repurchase their own equity shares. ..."
"... Any proposals to decrease tax rates for wealthy individuals and corporations will only increase that private control. ..."
Why is it anyone would want to save such an economic system?
April 11, 2017
from David Ruccio
"If you put the two trends together-increased individual income inequality and increased corporate
savings -- what we're witnessing then is increasing private control over the social surplus.
Wealthy individuals and large corporations are able to capture and decide on their own what
to do with the surplus, with all the social ramifications associated with their decisions to invest
where and when they want-or not to invest, and thus to accumulate cash, repay debt, and repurchase
their own equity shares.
Any proposals to decrease tax rates for wealthy individuals and corporations will only increase
that private control.
Why is it anyone would want to save such an economic system?"
Possibly I do not understand the matter, but I can find no evidence that corporate "saving" as
a share of GDP in the United States is increasing. Actually, the reverse.
The global corporate saving glut: Long-term evidence
By Peter Chen, Loukas Karabarbounis, and Brent Neiman
Corporate saving has increased relative to GDP and corporate investment across the world over
the past three decades, reflecting how the global decline in the labour has led to increased corporate
profits. This column characterises these trends using national income accounts and firm-level
data, and relates them to firm characteristics and the accumulation of financial assets. In response
to declines in the components of the cost of capital, a model with capital market imperfections
generates an increase in corporate saving similar to that found in the data.
[ I am grateful for the reference, but I had already read the paper carefully and found no
reason to agree with the assertion that there is long term evidence of a corporate saving glut.
]
National accounts data include sector accounts that divide the economy into the corporate sector,
the government sector, and the household and non-profit sector.
For most economies, the corporate sector can be further disaggregated into financial and non-financial
corporations and the household sector can be distinguished from the non-profit sector.
National accounts data also include industry accounts that divide activity according to the
International Standard Industrial
Classification, Rev. 4 (SIC).
A set of accounting identities that hold in the aggregate as well as at the sector or industry
level serve as the backbone for the national accounts.
In these accounts, the value of final
production (i.e. production net of intermediate goods) is called gross value added (GVA). When
aggregated to the economy level, GVA equals GDP less net taxes on products. GVA is detailed
in the generation of income account and equals the sum of income paid to capital, labor, and
taxes:
GVA = Gross Operating Surplus (GOS) + Compensation to Labor
+ Net Taxes on Production.
GOS captures the income available to corporations and other producing entities after paying for
labor services and after subtracting taxes (and adding subsidies) associated with production.
The distribution of income account splits GOS into gross saving, dividends, and other payments
to capital such as taxes on profits, interest payments, reinvested foreign earnings, and other
transfers:
GOS = Gross Saving (GS) + Net Dividends | {z } Accounting Profits
+ Taxes on Profits + Interest
− Reinvested Earnings on Foreign Direct Investment + Other Transfers.
Net dividends equal dividends paid less dividends received from subsidiaries or partially-owned
entities. Other transfers include social contributions and rental payments on land.
In our analyses, we define (accounting) profits as the sum of gross saving and net dividends.
The capital account connects the flow of saving to the flow of investment as follows:
GS = Net Lending + Gross Fixed Capital Formation + Changes in Inventories + Changes in Other
Non-Financial Produced Assets.
The net lending position is defined as the excess of gross saving over investment spending.
"Wealthy individuals and large corporations are able to capture and decide on their own what to
do with the surplus, with all the social ramifications associated with their decisions to invest
where and when they want-or not to invest, and thus to accumulate cash, repay debt, and repurchase
their own equity shares."
Or in the case of say Bill Gates in deciding which causes get assistance and which not rather
than people voting on it (not that I think Bill Gates is necessarily doing harm - but why should
he get to decide?).
Where in 1980 real per capita Gross Domestic product in China was a mere 6.4% that of Brazil, in 2016 per capita GDP in China
was larger than that of Brazil or 101.4% that of Brazil.
"... For example, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase served on the New York Fed's board of directors at the same time that his bank received more than $390 billion in financial assistance from the Fed. Moreover, JP Morgan Chase served as one of the clearing banks for the Fed's emergency lending programs. ..."
"... To Sanders, the conclusion is simple. "No one who works for a firm receiving direct financial assistance from the Fed should be allowed to sit on the Fed's board of directors or be employed by the Fed," he said. ..."
"... The investigation also revealed that the Fed outsourced most of its emergency lending programs to private contractors, many of which also were recipients of extremely low-interest and then-secret loans." ..."
"... Despite the GAO's finding of crony capitalism--A THE PARTICULARLY HARMFUL SYMBIOSIS BETWEEN BANKS AND GOVERNMENT--it's rare to find a 'librul' economist, particularly among the commenters here, who has an unkind word about how the Fed does its business. The ONLY criticism of the Fed typically has to do with a certain peevishness that arises when the Fed threatens to take away the ultra-low interest rates that commenters here covet. ..."
... Q: The World Economic Forum has called for "reimagining" and
"reforming" capitalism. To what extent is this need for reform the result of disruption brought by
technological change, globalization, and immigration and to what extent is it the effect of rent-seeking
and regulatory capture?
The impact of technological change, globalization, and immigration on society depends on how the
relevant institutions manage these developments. Capitalism has worked poorly in recent years because
governments mishandled the challenges of technological change and globalization, and that failure
is related to rent-seeking and regulatory capture. The elites who engage with each other through
the World Economic Forum and elsewhere can become out of touch and blind to reality; you can see
the problem from Steve Schwarzman of Blackstone saying in Davos in 2016 that he found public anger
"astonishing."
Acemoglu and Robinson argued in Why
Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty that "man-made political and economic
institutions underlie economic success (or lack of it)." Technological developments have highlighted
the immense power associated with controlling information. The business of investigative reporting
is in a crisis. Corporations often play off governments, shopping jurisdictions and making bargains.
For capitalism to work, the relevant institutions must work effectively and avoid excessive rent
extraction. The governance challenge of the global economy is daunting.
Here are a few examples...
Q: Some people describe Donald Trump's economic policies as "corporatism." Are you more worried
by Trump's interference in the market economy or by companies' ability to subvert markets' rules?
...
"Martin Hellwig and I discuss "global competitiveness" and THE PARTICULARLY HARMFUL SYMBIOSIS
BETWEEN BANKS AND GOVERNMENTS in our book The Bankers' New Clothes: What's Wrong with Banking and
What to Do about It."
[Private/public arrangements are often a way for private parties to bleed wealth from society.
Our current banking system is the most egregious example of this.]
Nicholas Gruen: "every bank is part of a larger public–private partnership and that at the apex
of that system we already have a people's bank. Right now it might be owned by the people, but
it's captured by the private banks."
With the internet, the central bank could just as easily lend to individuals. Instead of having
the banking cartel ration credit and set interest rates, direct lending to borrowers could eliminate
the unnecessary margins and fees charged by the cartel...and create competition where there is
now collusion and crony capitalism.
The audit of the Fed that Bernie got the GAO to do: "The non-partisan, investigative arm of Congress
also determined that the Fed lacks a comprehensive system to deal with conflicts of interest,
despite the serious potential for abuse. In fact, according to the report, the Fed provided conflict
of interest waivers to employees and private contractors so they could keep investments in the
same financial institutions and corporations that were given emergency loans.
For example, the CEO of JP Morgan Chase served on the New York Fed's board of directors
at the same time that his bank received more than $390 billion in financial assistance from the
Fed. Moreover, JP Morgan Chase served as one of the clearing banks for the Fed's emergency lending
programs.
In another disturbing finding, the GAO said that on Sept. 19, 2008, William Dudley, who is
now the New York Fed president, was granted a waiver to let him keep investments in AIG and General
Electric at the same time AIG and GE were given bailout funds. One reason the Fed did not make
Dudley sell his holdings, according to the audit, was that it might have created the appearance
of a conflict of interest.
To Sanders, the conclusion is simple. "No one who works for a firm receiving direct financial
assistance from the Fed should be allowed to sit on the Fed's board of directors or be employed
by the Fed," he said.
The investigation also revealed that the Fed outsourced most of its emergency lending programs
to private contractors, many of which also were recipients of extremely low-interest and then-secret
loans."
Despite the GAO's finding of crony capitalism--A THE PARTICULARLY HARMFUL SYMBIOSIS BETWEEN
BANKS AND GOVERNMENT--it's rare to find a 'librul' economist, particularly among the commenters
here, who has an unkind word about how the Fed does its business. The ONLY criticism of the Fed
typically has to do with a certain peevishness that arises when the Fed threatens to take away
the ultra-low interest rates that commenters here covet.
'Capitalism has worked poorly in recent years because
governments mishandled the challenges of technological change
and globalization, and that failure is related to
rent-seeking and regulatory capture. '
I want some of what both of you are smoking. This is inherent
in capitalism and goes back to its origins. There has never
been anything except "crony" capitalism, and, as Adam Smith
observed, the first thing successful business men buy is the
politicians.
Dear DrD, so wrong. There is plenty of capitalism well
removed from politics. Rather, politics becomes a problem
when institutions are not robust enough to control the
avarice of the politician.
By far the majority of capitalists are doing their best to
earn a living by providing wanted goods and services. The
same can be sad for some politicians, but not for those who
are for sale.
I'm not sure where if anywhere you disagree with each other.
The way I see it these are inherent flaws of capitalism, as
Dr. Dick says, and it requires a solution "from outside",
i.e. from the political realm, as Barry says.
Going back to
the quote, "capitalism" is not "working poorly" by the
self-referential measures commonly applied to it. The rich
are still getting richer, albeit more slowly in the last
several years. GDP, aka "the economy" is the only measure
used widely, and over the last 40 years has done fine.
By any measure that include metrics "from outside" such as
how well people are faring, however, it's not doing well.
Societies that derive their social arrangements entirely from
capitalism are in trouble.
What's missing in each and every case above -- at least in
the USA! -- is countervailing power. 6% labor union
density in private business is equivalent to 20/10 blood
pressure in the human body: it starves every other healthy
process.
It is not just labor market bargaining power
that has gone missing, it is not only the lost political
muscle for the average person (equal campaign financing,
almost all the votes), it is also the lack of machinery to
deal with day-to-day outrages on a day-to-day basis
(that's called lobbying).
Late dean of the Washington press corps David Broder
told a young reporter that when he came to DC fifty years
ago (then), all the lobbyists were union. Big pharma's
biggest rip-offs, for profit school scams, all the stuff
you hear about for one day on the news but no action is
ever taken -- that's because there is no (LABOR UNION)
mechanism to stay on top of all (or any) of it
(LOBBYISTS).
It is a chicken and egg problem. Before large scale
automation and globalization, unions "negotiated"
themselves their power, which was based on employers
having much fewer other choices. Any union power that was
ever legislated was legislated as a *result* of union
leverage, not to enable the latter (and most of what was
legislated amounts to limiting employer interference with
unions).
It is a basic feature of human individual and
group relations that when you are needed you will be
treated well, and when you are not needed you will be
treated badly (or at best you will be ignored if that's
less effort overall). And by needed I mean needed as a
specific individual or narrowly described group.
What automation and globalization have done is created
a glut of labor - specifically an oversupply of most skill
sets relative to all the work that has to be done
according to socially mediated decision processes (a
different set of work than what "everybody" would like to
happen as long as they don't have to pay for it, taking
away from other necessary or desired expenditure of money,
effort, or other resources).
Maybe when the boomers age out and become physically
too old to work, the balance will tip again.
Same thing with the internet - it has been hailed as a
democratizing force, but instead it has mostly (though not
wholly) amplified the existing power differentials and
motivation structures.
Anecdotally, a lot of companies
and institutions are either restricting internal internet
access or disconnecting parts of their organizations from
the internet altogether, and disabling I/O channels like
USB sticks, encrypting disks, locking out "untrusted" boot
methods, etc. The official narrative is security and
preventing leaks of confidential information, but the
latter is clearly also aimed in part at whistleblowers
disclosing illegal or unethical practices. Of course that
a number of employees illegitimately "steal" data for
personal and not to uncover injustices doesn't really
help.
Surely there is a huge difference between the labor market
here and the labor market in continental Europe -- though
labor there faces the same squeezing forces it faces here.
Think of German auto assembly line workers making $60 an
hour counting benefits.
Think Teamster Union UPS drivers
-- and pity the poor, lately hired (if they are even
hired) Amazon drivers -- maybe renting vans.
The Teamsters have the only example here of what is
standard in continental Europe: centralized bargaining
(aka sector wide labor agreements): the Master National
Freight Agreement: wherein everybody doing the same job in
the same locale (entire nation for long distance truckers)
works under one common contract (in French Canada too).
Imagine centralized bargaining for airlines. A few
years ago Northwest squeezed a billion dollars in give
backs out of its pilots -- next year gave a billion
dollars in bonuses to a thousand execs. Couldn't happen
under centralized bargaining -- wouldn't even give the
company any competitive advantage.
Bernanke comes out for NGDP targeting after previously
dismissing the idea when Christina Romer called for a regime
change during his tenure.
sanjait -> Peter
K....
"Eat it Krugman."
It's funny you say this right after the passage about
price level targeting, as if the passage were a refutation of
Krugman somehow.
This is the same Krugman that said in 1998 that forward
guidance could be effective if and only if it were credible,
and who said in 2015 that such credibility would only be
possible with a regime change in Fed policy.
He didn't name level targeting, but it fits his stated
conditions perfectly.
Eat it Peter.
Reply Thursday, April 13, 2017 at 01:02 PM
It's a big deal that Bernanke came out in favor of NGDP
targeting.
Krugman hasn't promoted the idea *at all* at his blog and
he goes out of his way to be dismissive of Scott Sumner and
market monetarists since they are conservative.
I could find evidence on his blog if I wanted to waste the
time.
Sanjait can't or won't understand this fact. Why? Is it a
case of hero-worship?
Krugman has pretty much stopped talking about
monetary/macro policy other than to say that the case for
fiscal expansion "isn't completely absent."
That's the wrong way to put it.
His candidate Hillary said nothing about monetary policy,
tacitly saying that the Fed has done a good job. Her fiscal
expansion plan was such that Alan Blinder said it wouldn't
effect the Fed's reaction function. That's why center-left
Krugman avoids the topic of macro policy and running the
economy hot.
Republican/centrist Bernanke is ahead of Krugman on the
issue?
Why Market Monetarists Must Attack Paul Krugman
Ideas are secondary to tribes.
by Ryan L. Cooper
Paul Krugman, in a post attacking hard money types who are
howling for the Fed to cut back on its easing programs,
writes that folks like Scott Sumner ought to wake up to who
their real allies are:
Actually, before I get there, a word about self-styled
conservative "market monetarists": guys, have you noticed who
your real policy enemies are? People like me, Brad DeLong,
etc. are skeptical about the Fed's ability to offset the
effects of fiscal austerity, but we do want it to try. The
furious academic opposition to quantitative easing is instead
coming from moderate conservative macroeconomists, notably
Taylor and Feldstein. So your problem isn't just that the
GOP's effective leader on economic issues gets his macro from
Francisco D'Anconia; it's that even the not-so-silly wing of
the party is dead set against what you consider reform.
He's right that the opposition to further stimulus from
the Fed is overwhelmingly from the hard money right, but
behind this kind of thinking is an assumption that reasoned
debate is effective-that the way people come to believe stuff
is through argument and evidence.
I think this is wrong. Let me explain. (And yes, I see the
irony.)
People don't come to their beliefs through a disinterested
weighing of all the available evidence. They form them
through emotional processes and then reason backwards to form
support. It sounds foolish described that way but it's
actually not a bad system-reasoning from first principles for
every decision would be almost impossibly difficult. You need
crude, workable heuristics to be able to function.
In addition, most people are invested in one of the great
tribes-you choose a political side, and get a full suite of
opinions to call your own. Paul Krugman is one of the most
prominent members of Team Left in the world; he believes in
universal health insurance, high taxes on the rich, raising
welfare and unemployment benefits, and relief for underwater
mortgages, among many other things. He's your basic American
liberal, and none too ashamed of it; indeed, he's famous for
his snarky aggressiveness.
Most of that is totally anathema to the right. To a first
approximation, if Paul Krugman says it, conservatives will
disagree.
So if Scott Sumner (the preeminent market monetarist) were
to start agreeing with Krugman and spend most of his time
attacking the goldbugs and hard money fanatics on the right,
all the great weight of Krugman's lefty baggage would start
to bear on his reputation. He'd be "the guy that mostly
agrees with Krugman" rather than "the conservative who argues
for monetary stimulus."
The true genius of Sumner is that he has provided a
conservative-coded way to embrace monetary stimulus. He's the
guy who proved that you can favor monetary stimulus and still
hate Paul Krugman. That's huge. It's carved out a big
intellectual space-it's not a coincidence that about the only
"conservative reform" policy that has gotten any traction is
Sumner's NGDP target.
Don't take my word for it, take a look at AEI scholar Jim
Pethokoukis, who has done the rarest of things: changed his
mind on a major issue. He moved from a traditional inflation
paranoia to an advocate of monetary stimulus, and explicitly
mentions Sumner as inspiration. Seen so, regular fights with
Krugman are critical to maintaining Sumner's territory and
credibility.
Now, I don't think Sumner is doing this strategically or
duplicitously. He does it for the same reason as anyone, I
suspect-because Krugman writes stuff that pisses him off and
he wants to pick holes in the argument.
What I'm saying is that that the liberals who value their
conservative allies against goldbuggery and Mellonite
liquidationist thinking (as they ought to) should understand
that the forces of tribalism will totally overwhelm any
reason-based approach. Sumner is right to keep up his
conservative street cred.
But I gather you
believe that the monetary policy of the 70s was fantastic and
really created a fantastic economy that got better as that
decade ended? The Treasury did act to void Brenton Woods and
supporting erosion of Regulation Q causing Fed and shadow
bank money printing leading to high inflation suppressed by
price controls.
Obama had neither option, the shadow banks were sharply
contracting money supply in 2008 to 2010 at a rate faster
than the Fed could print money. Then from 2010 to 2015, the
Fed printed money in lockstep with the shadow banks cutting
money supply.
But you want the central bank of Venezuela where the
president can print money as fast as he needs to to fund
government handouts to keep power.
And your monetary policy theory had demonstrated that it
can deliver fantastic overall economic welfare! The US needs
ano economy like Venezuela has!
So you are saying that if there were more doves on the Fed
board they would have raised rates during the Obama admin?
Lowered them beyond zero? Did more QE? Did less QE?
He took
office in 09 with the rate at .25. Six years later it went to
a half. Another year and it went to .75. QE totaled around $2
Trillion.
A moderately more dovish Fed would have not talked about
tightening at every turn while it kept rates low. This
anti-forward guidance has real effects on inflation
expectations and by extension the real rate of interest.
A
substantially more dovish Fed could have engaged in a regime
change to alter the explicitly or implicit targets. Commonly
discussed options include an increased inflation target, an
inflation level target, and NGDP or NGDP level targets.
My own preference would be for an inflation level target
at an increased rate, in the 3-4% range. I very strongly
believe such a regime would have and would still make a huge
difference.
" I do not believe that "talking about tightening" has
absolutely no effect on the economy.
Tightening does."
I think you meant to say that you DO believe talking about
tightening has NO effect on the economy. Correct?
Either way, I do absolutely and confidently believe that
talking about tightening has an effect on the economy. We can
watch in real time as Fed statements that shift expectations
of future policy stance affect bond rates, equities prices
and exchange rates immediately. That illustrates how they can
tighten merely with words. They did so numerous times in the
ZLB era.
Basically, they allege Sumner is a hippy puncher*.
*In the
original sense of the term: a conservative who would
rhetorically trash liberals before making a liberalish
argument to get conservatives to accept the argument... not
the more recent use of the term, which has become "anyone who
criticizes Bernie."
"It's a big deal that Bernanke came out in favor of NGDP
targeting."
He didn't. He said distinctly positive things
about inflation level targeting in contrast to raising the
inflation rate, and then briefly entertained the notion that
some kind of "mixed" program could also be good, without
providing much specificity.
This is sort of like how you took one paragraph from
Bernie about how the Fed should keep rates low longer, in the
context of an otherwise unrelated rant of an op-ed, and
decided that it showed he agreed with everything you believe
about monetary policy.
Your own perception bias is clear.
"Krugman hasn't promoted the idea *at all* at his blog and
he goes out of his way to be dismissive of Scott Sumner and
market monetarists since they are conservative."
You are right that Krugman has not promoted NGDP targeting
per se. In fact, in the passage from me
you quoted, I already pointed that out.
I also pointed out that Krugman originally presented the
model that explains how credible forward guidance is
necessary in a liquidity trap, and then updated it to claim
that a "regime change" would be necessary to enforce the
credibility.
He admittedly doesn't go deep into how that should play
out, but I'm not the only one who has distinctly read an
argument for price level targeting, or even NGDPLT in
Krugman's discussion of this.
Here's Nick Rowe saying pretty much exactly what I just
said:
And here's *Scott Sumner* endorsing heartily Krugman's
framework analysis arguing for a higher inflation target,
while of course Sumner claims it argues strongly also in
favor of NGDPLT:
If you want to argue Krugman is overly skeptical of the
kind of expectations-drive monetary policies his own model
points towards ... that's probably fair, though in reality
Krugman doesn't ever say they won't work, only that he finds
their reliability questionable *relative to fiscal and
conventional monetary stimulus.* That's a huge distinction,
and the way you fail to recognize it deliberately puts you in
straw-man-humping territory.
Krugman
from 2011, describing (as I explained) how his own model
calls for expectations driven monetary policy to address the
ZLB problem, but expressing skepticism that it could be made
credible in practice given the politics:
Here is Sumner again, from 2014, reacting to Krugman's
presentation on the subject that mentions "regime change".
Sumner, like I did above, notes how Krugman doesn't really go
on to describe what form that is supposed to take, but he
also, like me, sees Krugman's overarching framework as a
great one for explaining why other monetary regimes would be
favorable, including higher inflation, inflation level
targeting or NGDP/NGDPLT.
These guys are way far apart on fiscal policy, and on that
subject I think Sumner is a bit of a twat. That's why they
find reason to disagree so often.
But on monetary stuff they are actually not so far apart.
"That's a huge distinction, and the way you fail to recognize
it deliberately puts you in straw-man-humping territory."
"This is sort of like how you took one paragraph from Bernie
"
Not at all. Not at all. You are completely wrong.
"If you want to argue Krugman is overly skeptical...
though in reality Krugman doesn't ever say they won't
work..."
He says it's worth a try, but that's it. He doesn't
promote it or discuss it very often. Scott Sumner and the
market monetarist people have been actively promoting it.
People can easily compare by skimming through Sumner's blog
versus Krugman's blog in 2016 and 2017.
As soon as Republicans took over in 2010, Krugman pretty
much stopped criticizing the Fed.
Bernanke who was once a Republican is now to the left of
Krugman??? Bernanke favors NGDP targeting over raising the
inflation target, which is now what the "party line" of
center-left economists like Krugman and PGL is. They promote
raising the inflation target over NGDP targeting, as PGL does
to stick it to Sumner, etc.
Bernanke said "no, NGDP targeting should be tried before
raising the inflation target, which has more mixed pros and
cons.
That's why I said "Eat it PGL, eat it Krugman." And of
course PGL doesn't respond. I should have added "Eat it
Sanjait."
Bernanke:
"If the Fed wanted to go farther, it could consider
changing what it targets from inflation to some other
economic variable. There have been many proposals, each with
its own strengths and weaknesses. One possibility that has
some attractive features is a so-called price-level target.
With a price-level target the Fed would commit to making up
misses of its desired inflation level. For example, if
inflation fell below 2 percent for a time the Fed would
compensate by aiming for inflation above 2 percent until
average inflation over the whole period had returned to 2
percent. The adoption of price-level targeting would be
preferable to raising the inflation target, as price-level
targeting is both more consistent with the Fed's mandate to
promote price stability and because it is more similar to an
optimal "make-up" monetary policy. (Following a ZLB episode,
a price-level-targeting central bank would be committed to
making up any shortfall of inflation.)
Price-level targeting does have drawbacks as well. For
example, if a rise in oil prices or another supply shock
temporarily increases inflation, a price-level-targeting
central bank would be forced to tighten monetary policy to
push down subsequent inflation rates, even if the economy
were in a downturn. In contrast, an inflation-targeting
central bank could "look through" a temporary inflation
increase, letting inflation bygones be bygones.
Another alternative would be to try to implement the
optimal "make-up" strategy, in which the Fed commits to
compensating for the effects of the ZLB by holding rates low
for a time after the ZLB no longer binds, with the length of
the make-up period explicitly depending on the severity of
the ZLB episode. KR consider several policies of this type
and show in their simulations that such policies reduce the
frequency of ZLB episodes and largely eliminate their costs,
while keeping average inflation close to 2 percent. The main
challenges for this approach are in communicating it clearly
and ensuring that it is credible, since if market
participants and the public don't believe that the central
bank will carry through on its promise to keep rates low, the
policy won't work. However, the Fed's recent experience with
forward guidance suggests that such commitments by central
banks can be effective. [3] They would probably be even more
effective if the principles of this approach were laid out
and explained in a normal period in which the ZLB was not
binding.
As price-level targeting and "make-up" policies are
closely related, they could be combined in various ways. For
example, by promising to return the price level to trend
after a period at the zero lower bound, the Fed could use the
language of price-level targeting to make precise its
commitment to make up for its inability to respond adequately
during the period when rates are at zero."
Sanders "dont raise rates until we hit 4 percent
unemployement" is essentially forward guidance and yet you
and Krugman go with Hillary who was satisfied with the
Federal Reserve's continued failure.
"It's a big deal that Bernanke came out in favor of NGDP
targeting."
He didn't.
"The adoption of price-level targeting would be preferable
to raising the inflation target, as price-level targeting is
both more consistent with the Fed's mandate to promote price
stability and because it is more similar to an optimal
"make-up" monetary policy. (Following a ZLB episode, a
price-level-targeting central bank would be committed to
making up any shortfall of inflation.)"
Hey dipshit, price level targeting is not the same as NGDPP
targeting, and saying a price-level target "would be
preferable to..." an increased inflation rate is also not an
endorsement of NGDP targeting.
You can say whatever you
want about me but it's pretty clear how you're full of it
here.
Compared to what Bernanke has said before about price-level/NGDP
targeting it is an endorsement. He is basically saying it is
worth a try and preferable to raising the inflation target
which is PGL's and the squishy liberals' answer to Fed fail.
"[R]emember
that statistical significance is only part of what you need
to know. How strong an effect is, and how important it is in
the real world, might matter even more."
I try to learn something new every day. This is it for
Friday, April 14, 2017. Thanks Noah.
I thought Smith's column was quite good. (I don't write that
very often.) "We know what the effect accurately and
precisely. It's really small and doesn't matter." is
important if/when that's the case. You want to know when you
can get away with ignoring something when you're creating
your (approximate) model of how the world works. Conversely,
"We know what the effect is pretty accurately but not super
precisely. We know enough that we can say that it's a big
deal but we're still figuring out precisely how big a deal."
is also critical information. Knowledge re the former effect
may be more statistically significant than the latter while
at the same time being less materially significant. That can
be a fairly subtle point to a non-technical audience. Heck,
it can be a subtle point to technically-oriented audience.
I think that requirement of the normal (or Gaussian)
distribution that is behind most statistical metrics is the
weakest part.
Normal distribution is the distribution with the maximum
entropy for a specified mean and variance. As such it is
poorly suited as the distribution of the data reflecting
economic or social processes (fat tails problems).
Anything that IMF claim should be taken with a grain of salt. IMF is a quintessential
neoliberal institutions that will support neoliberalism to
the bitter end.
Drivers of Declining Labor Share of Income
By Mai Chi Dao, Mitali Das, Zsoka Koczan, and Weicheng Lian
Technology: a key driver in advanced economies
In advanced economies, about half of the decline in labor
shares can be traced to the impact of technology. The decline
was driven by a combination of rapid progress in information
and telecommunication technology, and a high share of
occupations that could be easily be automated.
Global integration-as captured by trends in final goods
trade, participation in global value chains, and foreign
direct investment-also played a role. Its contribution is
estimated at about half that of technology. Because
participation in global value chains typically implies
offshoring of labor-intensive tasks, the effect of
integration is to lower labor shares in tradable sectors.
Admittedly, it is difficult to cleanly separate the impact
of technology from global integration, or from policies and
reforms. Yet the results for advanced economies is
compelling. Taken together, technology and global integration
explain close to 75 percent of the decline in labor shares in
Germany and Italy, and close to 50 percent in the United
States.
If the Federal Reserve can create trillions of dollars with a single keystroke, and the Fed
is the government's bank, then why does President Obama claim we've "run out" of money?
Why have Democrats and so-called progressives supported job-killing budget cuts in the name
of "shared sacrifice"? Why are we throwing away the equivalent of $9.8 billion in lost output
every single day? Why don't we do something about our $2.2 trillion infrastructure deficit, 25
million underemployed and unemployed Americans, 100 million Americans in or very near poverty,
and so on?
The answer is simple. Most of us don't understand the monetary system. Instead of deciding
how the government should wield its power over the dollar, we live in fear of the ratings agencies,
the Chinese, the bond market vigilantes and other imaginary evils. And this holds all of us back.
Unused resources abound, human needs go unmet, and the vast majority of Americans believe that
'There Is No Alternative' (TINA). Or, as Warren Mosler says, "Because we fear becoming the next
Greece, we're turning ourselves into the next Japan."
There is an alternative. And it begins with an understanding of the monetary system. The cat
is already out of the bag. Chairman Bernanke confirms it. Money is no object.
RGC,
the people here have been brainwashed and can not think for themselves. If it has not been approved
by their favorite academic, it is a crank theory. they'd rather believe in fairy tales like NGDP
level targeting - the fed will wish it into reality. Rather than pay attention to the MMT that
you and I subscribe to.
Moreover it is logical for them to stick to the "the Fed is omnipotent" as it bids up asset prices
and maintains the status quo. It vests more power in the institutions that benefit the people
you see here.
Blame the right, blame the deregulators, blame the tax cutters, blame the liberatarians, etc.
that is the how they maintain the status quo. And Mosler is right on - Bernanke turned us into
Japan trying to save us from that fate. And he is sliding down the rabbit hole - "I should have
doubled down on my failed strategy"
why? because he was able to bid up the stock market? I bet you everyone of the Fed worshippers
here benefit personally from the asset price binges that the stupid Fed has gotten us addicted
to.
Per Rubin and his cronies in the Wall Street banking cartel, the Fed is fine as it is...serving
the interests of the Wall Street banking cartel. The cartel has a good think going...why disrupt
it by taking into account the public good?
Has Rubin ever done anything in the interest of the public?
you would rather rely on some "free lunch" fairy tale tools
like NGDP targeting because the simpler version, QE, has
worked so well that we have Trump in the white house.
"QE, has worked so well that we have Trump in the white
house."
That's good !. Sounds like a plausible explanation
what has happened to me. Obama was the key to Trump election.
Looks like Trump was just another Obama: a tabula rasa on
which a frustrated American public could project their
desires, but who in reality was just another sell-out.
Is this from some alternate reality where Obama was elected
to a third term? Can I go there too?
And the issue is not
being able to create reserves on the monetary side, but being
able to actually stimulate the economy by increased federal
spending on the fiscal side. At the ZLB, there's no demand,
so more money supply...ho, hum!
Tax cuts don't cut it because they send money to people
who will speculate with it instead of spending it to
stimulate production and get a financial multiplier going.
And this business of "run out" of money is some conflation
of GOP fantasy with the federal borrrowing 'limit' which may
have no force in law anyway. Obama didn't force the issue,
though I think he should have. In any case, it'll be
interesting to watch the GOP self-immolation over the
so-called 'debt limit'. The big question-to bring popcorn or
marshmallows?
Since losing the presidency to a Cheeto-hued reality TV
host, the Democratic party's leadership has made it clear
that it would rather keep losing than entertain even the
slightest whiff of New Deal style social democracy.
The Bernie Sanders wing might bring grassroots energy and
– if the polls are to be believed – popular ideas, but their
redistributive policies pose too much of a threat to the
party's big donors to ever be allowed on the agenda.
Official Dems Abandon Sanders Ally in Key Kansas Race, and
Dems Lose
By Bob Dreyfuss | April 11, 2017
UPDATE II: Politico notes, in reporting on the race that
the GOP won by single digits: "The DCCC did not spend a dime
in this race. Again: Trump won this district by 27 points."
Outside progressive groups did mobilize for Thompson, but the
official Democratic Party did squat. So, Mr. Tom "50 State
Strategy" Perez,
"It is a class party, and they act on that class's behalf
and they act in that class's interests and they serve that
class. And they have adopted all the tastes and manners and
ideology...
It's just that class is not the working class. It's not
the middle class. It's the professional class - affluent,
white-collar elites.
They can't see what they're doing. This is invisible to
them, because it's who they are."
............
Writer Thomas Frank shifts through the wreckage of the
Democratic Party in the Trump Era, and finds a group of
failed politicians unable to see the deep unpopularity of
their own policies, or a path beyond serving the narrow
interests of the elite professional class they've served
since the Clinton years - with a generation of disastrous
results.
They want to be the party of business, not the job class.
That's why Hillary spends her time giving speeches to Goldman
Sachs and Larry Summers gives talks to Mexican bankers and
investors not Mexican union workers or activists.
Dysfunctional corporate media regurgitate corporate
slandering and BS rather than reporting the outrageous and
illegal abuse of a human by corporate and public thugs:
It is sad how easy it is for big corporations to insert
their narratives into reported news. Is this another case of
misapplied "two-sides-ism" or is it worse than that?
DeDude -> DeDude...
,
One very good point towards the end is that when you push
down salaries you lose some of the more competent people.
There were at least a handful of "stop points" where
competent employees could have prevented this from ever
occurring. However, when everything is understaffed and/or
outsourced to the lowest bidder, and companies continuously
mistreat their employees - you end up with incompetent
employees that couldn't care less.
With oversized financial system crashes are inevitable; in a way oversize financial system is
enough for producing financial crash: swine will always find the dirt.
Notable quotes:
"... Major Malinvestments Do Not Have to Produce Large Depressions by Brad DeLong ..."
"... I asked the typical macro question: who are the twenty biggest suppliers of securitization products, and who are the twenty biggest buyers. I got a paper, and they were both the same set of institutions. When I was at this meeting--and I really should have been at these meetings earlier--I was talking to the banks, and I said: "It looks to me that since the buyers and the sellers are the same institutions, as a system they have not diversified" ..."
"... That was one of the things that struck me: that the industry was not aware at the time that while its treasury department was reporting that it bought all these products its credit department was reporting that it had sold off all the risk because they had securitized them. ..."
"... Indeed, John Maynard Keynes had a good deal to say about this in Notes on the Trade Cycle: ..."
"... "The preceding analysis may appear to be in conformity with the view of those who hold that over-investment is the characteristic of the boom, that the avoidance of this over-investment is the only possible remedy for the ensuing slump, and that, whilst for the reasons given above the slump cannot be prevented by a low rate of interest, nevertheless the boom can be avoided by a high rate of interest. There is, indeed, force in the argument that a high rate of interest is much more effective against a boom than a low rate of interest against a slump. ..."
"... It's not malinvestment that played decisive role. It's leverage which gradually increased during boom until it reached the level at which it necessarily caused the crash. Dot-com boom crash came at the levels of leverage far less then subprime. Generally financial firms only get appetite for exorbitant leverage at this time. So there were no Lehman Brother event during dot-com crash. ..."
"... Also subprime bubble was facilitated by the Fed as a remedy for dot-com bubble. From this point of view it was just the second stage of dot-com bubble. ..."
"... In reality when finance reached Ponzi stage nothing can prevent the crash and the longer the boom is artificially prolonged be deeper will be the crash and subsequent recession. So Fed efforts to mitigate dot-com bubble played a huge role of making the Great Recession as painful as it was. ..."
Major Malinvestments Do Not Have to Produce Large Depressions by Brad DeLong
February 22, 2017 at 06:06 AM
The United States had an immense boom in the 1990s. That was in the end financial disappointing
for those who invested in it, but not because the technologies they were investing in did not
pan out as technologies, not because the technologies deliver enormous amounts of well-being to
humans, but because it turned out to be devil's own task to monetize any portion of the consumer
surplus generated by the provision of information goods.
Huge investments in high tech and communications. Huge amounts of utility generated. Little
financial return. $4 trillion of investors' wealth destroyed as assets were revalued. That is
something like 8 times the fundamental losses we saw in subprime mortgages and home equity loans
made on houses in the desert between Los Angeles and Albuquerque from mid 2006-mid 2008.
A 1.5%-point rise in the unemployment rate after 2000 is not nothing--it is a bad thing. But
it is not a 7%-point rise. And it is not a failure to close any of the gap vis-a-vis the pre-crisis
trend of potential thereafter and a dark shadow over economic growth for a generation thereafter.
Yet the fundamental shock from dot-com looks to me 8 times as large as the fundamental shock from
subprime.
That tells me that we can deal with such shocks to private sector credit that go wrong: Have
them be to equity wealth in the first place, or rapidly transform all the financial asset claims
affected into equity on the fly as the crisis hits. Easy to say. Hard to do. We make sure they
are diversified. And we do not, not, not, not, not, not let the people in Basle get too clever
with their ideas of what reserves and capital structure look like, and allow core reserves to
be placed in assets that are not AAA--even if some ratings agency whose revenues depend on pleasing
investment banks has labeled them as AAA.
Axel Weber tells this story:
"In Davos, I was invited to a group of banks--now Deutsche Bundesbank is frequently mixed up
in invitations with Deutsche Bank. I was the only central banker sitting on the panel. It was
all banks. It was about securitizations. I asked my people to prepare. I asked the typical
macro question: who are the twenty biggest suppliers of securitization products, and who are the
twenty biggest buyers. I got a paper, and they were both the same set of institutions. When I
was at this meeting--and I really should have been at these meetings earlier--I was talking to
the banks, and I said: "It looks to me that since the buyers and the sellers are the same institutions,
as a system they have not diversified" .
That was one of the things that struck me: that the industry was not aware at the time
that while its treasury department was reporting that it bought all these products its credit
department was reporting that it had sold off all the risk because they had securitized them.
What was missing--and I think that is important for the view of what could be learned in economics--is
that finance and banking was too-much viewed as a microeconomic issue that could be analyzed by
writing a lot of books about the details of microeconomic banking. And there was too little systemic
views of banking and what the system as a whole would develop like. The whole view of a systemic
crisis was just basically locked out of the discussions and textbooks..."
Eichengreen, Alan Taylor, and Kevin O'Rourke think that, once the run on the shadow banking
system was underway, this was the largest shock relative to the size of the market financial markets
have ever experienced. We could have avoided this. If we had done our surveillance sufficiently
deeper, we would have seen that this might be coming...
But, even so there was nothing baked in the cake of the housing bubble that in any sense required
what the world economy has gone through in the past decade.
Indeed, John Maynard Keynes had a good deal to say about this in Notes on the Trade Cycle:
"The preceding analysis may appear to be in conformity with the view of those who hold
that over-investment is the characteristic of the boom, that the avoidance of this over-investment
is the only possible remedy for the ensuing slump, and that, whilst for the reasons given above
the slump cannot be prevented by a low rate of interest, nevertheless the boom can be avoided
by a high rate of interest. There is, indeed, force in the argument that a high rate of interest
is much more effective against a boom than a low rate of interest against a slump.
To infer these conclusions from the above would, however, misinterpret my analysis; and would,
according to my way of thinking, involve serious error. For the term over-investment is ambiguous.
It may refer to investments which are destined to disappoint the expectations which prompted them
or for which there is no use in conditions of severe unemployment, or it may indicate a state
of affairs where every kind of capital-goods is so abundant that there is no new investment which
is expected, even in conditions of full employment, to earn in the course of its life more than
its replacement cost. It is only the latter state of affairs which is one of over-investment,
strictly speaking, in the sense that any further investment would be a sheer waste of resources.[4]
Moreover, even if over-investment in this sense was a normal characteristic of the boom, the remedy
would not lie in clapping on a high rate of interest which would probably deter some useful investments
and might further diminish the propensity to consume, but in taking drastic steps, by redistributing
incomes or otherwise, to stimulate the propensity to consume.
According to my analysis, however, it is only in the former sense that the boom can be said
to be characterised by over-investment. The situation, which I am indicating as typical, is not
one in which capital is so abundant that the community as a whole has no reasonable use for any
more, but where investment is being made in conditions which are unstable and cannot endure, because
it is prompted by expectations which are destined to disappointment.
It may, of course, be the case - indeed it is likely to be - that the illusions of the boom
cause particular types of capital-assets to be produced in such excessive abundance that some
part of the output is, on any criterion, a waste of resources; - which sometimes happens, we may
add, even when there is no boom. It leads, that is to say, to misdirected investment. But over
and above this it is an essential characteristic of the boom that investments which will in fact
yield, say, 2 per cent. in conditions of full employment are made in the expectation of a yield
of, say, 6 per cent., and are valued accordingly. When the disillusion comes, this expectation
is replaced by a contrary "error of pessimism", with the result that the investments, which would
in fact yield 2 per cent. in conditions of full employment, are expected to yield less than nothing;
and the resulting collapse of new investment then leads to a state of unemployment in which the
investments, which would have yielded 2 per cent. in conditions of full employment, in fact yield
less than nothing. We reach a condition where there is a shortage of houses, but where nevertheless
no one can afford to live in the houses that there are.
Thus the remedy for the boom is not a higher rate of interest but a lower rate of interest!
For that may enable the so-called boom to last. The right remedy for the trade cycle is not to
be found in abolishing booms and thus keeping us permanently in a semi-slump; but in abolishing
slumps and thus keeping us permanently in a quasi-boom..."
Against malinvestment. Brad Delong has, I think, the decisive criticism* of malinvestment theories
of the Great Recession and subsequent slow recovery. In terms of the volume of investment based
on what turned out to be false expectations, and the subsequent loss of asset value, the dot-com
bubble of the late 1990s was much bigger than the housing bubble. So why were the macroeconomic
consequences so much milder?..
It's not malinvestment that played decisive role. It's leverage which gradually increased
during boom until it reached the level at which it necessarily caused the crash. Dot-com boom
crash came at the levels of leverage far less then subprime. Generally financial firms only get
appetite for exorbitant leverage at this time. So there were no Lehman Brother event during dot-com
crash.
Also subprime bubble was facilitated by the Fed as a remedy for dot-com bubble. From this
point of view it was just the second stage of dot-com bubble.
DeLong statement
"Thus the remedy for the boom is not a higher rate of interest but a lower rate of interest!
For that may enable the so-called boom to last."
is very questionable, but typical for dyed-in-the-wool neoliberals. They are completely ahistoric.
He does not understand Minsky because he can't.
In reality when finance reached Ponzi stage nothing can prevent the crash and the longer
the boom is artificially prolonged be deeper will be the crash and subsequent recession. So Fed
efforts to mitigate dot-com bubble played a huge role of making the Great Recession as painful
as it was.
zzz:
The benefit of liquidity insurance, however, is undermined if the option to withdraw funding is triggered
en masse by fear instead of fundamentals. Indeed, the notion that psychological factors are responsible
for triggering ?nancial crises has a long tradition in the history in economic thought. Diamond and
Dybvig (1983) formalize this idea by demonstrating how simple bank deposit contracts can induce a coordination
game exhibiting two equi librium outcomes. In the fundamental equilibrium, all depositors represent
their liquidity needs truthfully, so that options are exercised for fundamental economic reasons only.
In the bank panic equilibrium, depositors not in need of liquidity pretend that they are. In this case,
options are exercised out of a fear that little will be left for latecomers if other depositors are
similarly misrepresenting themselves. In this way, the mere expectation of widespread redemptions can
become a self-ful?lling prophecy.
While the notion of a panic-induced crisis has certain appeal, the
phe- nomenon is di¢ cult to identify empirically. An alternative and equally plausible view asserts
that ?nancial instability and its associated emotional trauma is merely symptomatic of deteriorating
fundamentals experienced in the broader economy prior to an economic downturn; see Gorton (1988) and
Allen and Gale (1998). While there is merit to this view, it is not inconsistent with the possibility
that some crises are panic-driven. In particular, not all ?nancial crises are associated with recessions;
see Capiro and Klingebiel (1997).
Because it is difficult to discriminate empirically between panic-based and fundamental-based explanations
of crises, policymakers should hedge their bets when designing ?nancial regulation.1 We think that the
proper hedge in this case might be usefully informed by theoretical, as well as empirical, plausibility.
Given the current state of theory, a case could be made for adjusting posterior odds in favor of fundamentals
over panics. The basis for this assessment rests on the apparent di¢ culty of generating bank panics
in model economies, at least for economies that permit an empirically plausible degree of contractual
?exibility.
To explain what we mean by this, note that the seminal model of Dia- mond and Dybvig (1983) does
not exhibit bank panics when banks adopt a simple suspension scheme,2 a device that was actually used?
sometimes suuccessfully? to halt runs.
We pose a theory in which bank panics that can arise easily and naturally whenever short-term debt
is used to ?nance investments characterized by even a modest degree of increasing returns to scale.
And, while our explanation does not require sequential service, it is certainly not compromised if sequential
service is imposed. Our idea is based on the notion that many investments entail some ?xed costs. A
large commercial development project, for example, requires a signi?cant outlay in capital and labor
services, e.g., cranes and crane operators, that must be paid regardless of how much construction activity
is actually taking place on site.
== quote == In much of the world, of course, electricity demand is still growing. In China, per-capita electricity
use has more than quadrupled since 1999. Still, most other developed countries have experienced
a plateauing or decline in electricity use similar to that in the U.S. over the past decade. And
while the phenomenon has been most pronounced in countries such as the U.K. where the economy
has been especially weak, it's also apparent in Australia, which hasn't experienced a recession
since 1991. == end of quote ==
From comments:
One interesting data point that should be within that "industrial" number: "U.S. aluminum production
has gone from 2.5 million tons in 2005 to 1.6 million in 2015."
http://www.seattletimes.com...
Aluminum smelting uses a lot of electricity, and that's a 36% decline. I'm not sure of the
total electricity use of the aluminum industry in the U.S. but it's conceivably big enough to
make a difference in that last graph.
(Bloomberg)
... In an article published in the Electricity Journal in 2015, former Lawrence Berkeley energy
researcher Jonathan G. Koomey, now a consultant and a lecturer at Stanford, and Virginia Tech
historian of science Richard F. Hirsch offered five hypotheses for why electricity demand had
decoupled from economic growth (which I've paraphrased here):
In an article published in the Electricity Journal in 2015, former Lawrence Berkeley energy
researcher Jonathan G. Koomey, now a consultant and a lecturer at Stanford, and Virginia Tech
historian of science Richard F. Hirsch offered five hypotheses for why electricity demand had
decoupled from economic growth (which I've paraphrased here):
1.State and federal efficiency standards for buildings and appliances have enabled us to get by
with less electricity.
2.Increased use of information and communications technologies have also allowed people to conduct
business and communicate more efficiently.
3.Higher prices for electricity in some areas have depressed its use.
4.Structural changes in the economy have reduced demand.
5.Electricity use is being underestimated because of the lack of reliable data on how much energy
is being produced by rooftop solar panels. ...
I appreciate these conjectures or hypotheses, which I had read initially and should have set down
as well. The problem is there is no clear defining of the hypotheses, or provision for coming
to a tentative conclusion as to the effect of any hypothesis.
The matter is of course important, and I will welcome further consideration.
Brad said: Few things can turn a perceived threat into a graspable opportunity like a high-pressure
economy with a tight job market and rising wages. Few things can turn a real opportunity into
a phantom threat like a low-pressure economy, where jobs are scarce and wage stagnant because
of the failure of macro economic policy.
What is it that prevents a statement like this from succeeding at the level of policy?
"... * A Carthaginian peace is the imposition of a very brutal 'peace' achieved by completely crushing the enemy. The term derives from the peace imposed on Carthage by Rome. After the Second Punic War, Carthage lost all its colonies, was forced to demilitarize and pay a constant tribute to Rome and could enter war only with Rome's permission. At the end of the Third Punic War, the Romans systematically burned Carthage to the ground and enslaved its population. ..."
The Economic Consequences of the Peace (1919) is a book
written and published by John Maynard Keynes.[1] Keynes
attended the Paris Peace Conference, 1919 as a delegate of
the British Treasury and argued for a much more generous
peace. It was a best-seller throughout the world and was
critical in establishing a general opinion that the
Versailles Treaty was a "Carthaginian peace*". It helped to
consolidate American public opinion against the treaty and
involvement in the League of Nations. The perception by much
of the British public that Germany had been treated unfairly
in turn was a crucial factor in public support for
appeasement. The success of the book established Keynes'
reputation as a leading economist especially on the left.
When Keynes was a key player in establishing the Bretton
Woods system in 1944, he remembered the lessons from
Versailles as well as the Great Depression. The Marshall
Plan, after the Second World War, was a similar system to
that proposed by Keynes in The Economic Consequences of the
Peace.
--------------------
Did the Marshall Plan not improve things in Europe!?!?!
* A Carthaginian peace is the imposition of a very
brutal 'peace' achieved by completely crushing the enemy. The
term derives from the peace imposed on Carthage by Rome.
After the Second Punic War, Carthage lost all its colonies,
was forced to demilitarize and pay a constant tribute to Rome
and could enter war only with Rome's permission. At the end
of the Third Punic War, the Romans systematically burned
Carthage to the ground and enslaved its population.
---------------------------
The financial crisis and terrible recovery was a disaster
forced on the voters of advanced nations. Is it any wonder
that there was a populist backlash? The spoiled, pampered
center-left like Krugman, Hillary and PGL have no idea of the
suffering that many voters and citizens had to endure, losing
their homes, etc.
"... He writes a DSGE model where banks hold sovereign debt, so that bad news about a possible future sovereign default both puts a strain on the funding of banks but also induces them to cut their leverage as a precautionary reaction. ..."
"... This channel for the diabolic loop linking banks and sovereign debt fits reasonably well the behavior of credit spreads across Italian banks and firms, and predicts that the ECB's interventions had a small effect. ..."
Luigi Bocola (2014, Penn, Northwestern): Bocola tries to explain the depth of the crisis in Italy
after 2011. He writes a DSGE model where banks hold sovereign debt, so that bad news about a possible
future sovereign default both puts a strain on the funding of banks but also induces them to cut
their leverage as a precautionary reaction.
This channel for the diabolic loop linking banks and sovereign debt fits reasonably well the behavior
of credit spreads across Italian banks and firms, and predicts that the ECB's interventions had a
small effect.
China and Currency Values: Fast Growing Countries Run
Trade Deficits
I don't generally comment on pieces that reference me, but
Jordan Weissman has given me such a beautiful teachable
moment that I can't resist. Weissman wrote * about Donald
Trump's reversal on his campaign pledge to declare China a
currency manipulator. Weissman assures us that Trump was
completely wrong in his campaign rhetoric and that China does
not in fact try to depress the value of its currency.
"It's pretty hard to argue with that. Far from devaluing
its currency, China has actually spent more than $1 trillion
of its vaunted foreign reserves over the past couple of years
trying to prop up the value of the yuan as investors have
funneled money overseas. There are some on the left, like
economist Dean Baker, who will argue that Beijing is still
effectively suppressing the redback's value by refusing to
unwind its dollar reserves more quickly. But if China were
really keeping its currency severely underpriced, you'd
expect it to still have a big current account surplus,
reminiscent of 10 years ago, which it doesn't anymore."
Okay, to start with, I hate the word "manipulation" in
this context. China isn't doing anything in the dark of the
night that we are trying to catch them at. The country pretty
explicitly manages the value of its currency against the
dollar, that is why it holds more than $3 trillion in
reserves. So let's just use the word "manage," in reference
to its currency. It is more neutral and more accurate.
It also allows us to get away from the idea that China is
somehow a villain and that we here in the good old US of A
are the victims. There are plenty of large U.S. corporations
that hugely benefit from having an under-valued Chinese
currency. For example Walmart has developed a low cost supply
chain that depends largely on goods manufactured in China. It
is not anxious for the price of the items it imports rise by
15-30 percent because of a rise in the value of the yuan
against the dollar.
The same applies to big manufacturers like GE that have
moved much of their production to China and other developing
countries. These companies do not "lose" because China is
running a large trade surplus with the United States, they
were in fact big winners.
Okay, but getting back to the issue at hand, I'm going to
throw the textbook at Weissman. It is not true that we should
expect China "to still have big current account surplus" if
it were deliberately keeping its currency below market
levels.
China is a developing country with an annual growth rate
of close to 7.0 percent. The U.S. is a rich country with
growth averaging less than 2.0 percent in last five years.
Europe is growing at just a 1.0 percent rate, and Japan even
more slowly. Contrary to what Weissman tells us, we should
expect that capital would flow from slow growing rich
countries to fast growing developing countries. This is
because capital will generally get a better return in an
economy growing at a 7.0 percent rate than the 1-2 percent
rate in the rich countries.
If capital flows from rich countries to poor countries,
this means they are running current account surpluses. The
capital flows are financing imports in developing countries.
These imports allow developing countries to sustain the
living standards of their populations even as they build up
their infrastructure and capital stock. In other words, if
China was not depressing the value of its currency we should
it expect it to be running a large trade deficit.
This is actually the way the world worked way back in the
1990s, a period apparently beyond the memory of most
economics reporters. The countries of East Asia enjoyed
extremely rapid growth, ** while running large trade
deficits. This all changed following the East Asian financial
crisis and the disastrous bailout arranged by Secretary of
Treasury Robert Rubin and friends. *** Developing countries
became huge exporters of capital as they held down the value
of their currencies in order to run large trade surpluses and
build up massive amounts of reserves.
But Weissman is right that China is no longer buying up
reserves, but the issue is its huge stock of reserves. As I
explained in a blogpost **** a couple of days ago:
"Porter is right that China is no longer buying reserves,
but it still holds over $3 trillion in reserves. This figure
goes to well over $4 trillion if we include its sovereign
wealth fund. Is there a planet where we don't think this
affects the value of the dollar relative to the yuan?
"To help people's thought process, the Federal Reserve
Board holds over $3 trillion in assets as a result of its
quantitative easing program. I don't know an economist
anywhere who doesn't think the Fed's holding of assets is
still keeping interest rates down, as compared to a scenario
in which it had a more typical $500 billion to $1 trillion in
assets.
"Currencies work the same way. If China offloaded $3
trillion in reserves and sovereign wealth holdings, it would
increase the supply of dollars in the world. And, as Karl
Marx says, when the supply of something increases, its price
falls. In other words, if China had a more normal amount of
reserve holdings, the value of the dollar would fall,
increasing the competitiveness of U.S. goods and services,
thereby reducing the trade deficit."
So, there really are no mysteries here. China is holding
down the value of its currency, which is making the U.S.
trade deficit worse. It is often claimed that they want their
currency to rise. That may well be true, which suggests an
obvious opportunity for cooperation. If the U.S. and China
announce a joint commitment to raise the value of the yuan
over the next 2-3 years then we can be fairly certain of
accomplishing this goal.
This should be a very simple win-win for both countries.
Walmart and GE might be unhappy, but almost everyone else
would be big winners, especially if we told them not to worry
about Pfizer's drug patent and Microsoft's copyright on
Windows.
It is unfortunate that Donald Trump seems closer to the
mark on China and trade than many economists and people who
write on economic issues for major news outlets. Today,
Eduardo Porter gets things partly right in his column *
telling readers "Trump isn't wrong on China currency
manipulation just late." The thrust of the piece is that
China did in fact deliberately prop up the dollar against its
currency, thereby causing the U.S. trade deficit to explode.
However, he argues this is all history now and that China's
currency is properly valued.
Let's start with the first part of the story. It's hardly
a secret that China bought trillions of dollars of foreign
exchange in the last decade. The predicted and actual effect
of this action was to raise the value of the dollar against
the yuan. The result is that the price of U.S. exports were
inflated for people living in China and the price of imports
from China were held down.
Porter then asks why the Bush administration didn't do
anything when this trade deficit was exploding in the years
2002–2007. We get the answer from Eswar Prasad, a former
I.M.F. official who headed their oversight of China:
"'There were other dimensions of China's economic policies
that were seen as more important to U.S. economic and
business interests,' Eswar Prasad, who headed the China desk
at the International Monetary Fund and is now a professor at
Cornell, told me. These included 'greater market access,
better intellectual property rights protection, easier access
to investment opportunities, etc.'"
Okay, step back and absorb this one. Mr. Prasad is saying
that millions of manufacturing workers in the Midwest lost
their jobs and saw their communities decimated because the
Bush administration wanted to press China to enforce Pfizer's
patents on drugs, Microsoft's copyrights on Windows, and to
secure better access to China's financial markets for Goldman
Sachs.
This is not a new story, in fact I say it all the time.
But it's nice to have the story confirmed by the person who
occupied the International Monetary Fund's China desk at the
time.
Porter then jumps in and gets his story completely 100
percent wrong:
"At the end of the day, economists argued at the time,
Chinese exchange rate policies didn't cost the United States
much. After all, in 2007 the United States was operating at
full employment. The trade deficit was because of Americans'
dismal savings rate and supercharged consumption, not a cheap
renminbi. After all, if Americans wanted to consume more than
they created, they had to get it somewhere."
Sorry, this was the time when even very calm sensible
people like Federal Reserve Board Chair Ben Bernanke were
talking about a "savings glut." The U.S. and the world had
too much savings, which lead to a serious problem of
unemployment. Oh, we did eventually find a way to deal with
excess savings.
Anyone remember the housing bubble? The demand generated
by the bubble eventually pushed the labor market close to
full employment. (The employment rate of prime age workers
was still down by 2.0 percentage points in 2007 compared to
2000 - and the drop was for both men and women, so skip the
problem with men story.)
Yeah, that bubble didn't end too well. So much for
Porter's no big deal story.
But what about the present, are we all good now?
Porter is right that China is no longer buying reserves,
but it still holds over $3 trillion in reserves. This figure
goes to well over $4 trillion if we include its sovereign
wealth fund. Is there a planet where we don't think this
affects the value of the dollar relative to the yuan?
To help people's thought process, the Federal Reserve
Board holds over $3 trillion in assets as a result of its
quantitative easing program. I don't know an economist
anywhere who doesn't think the Fed's holding of assets is
still keeping interest rates down, as compared to a scenario
in which it had a more typical $500 billion to $1 trillion in
assets.
Currencies work the same way. If China offloaded $3
trillion in reserves and sovereign wealth holdings, it would
increase the supply of dollars in the world. And, as Karl
Marx says, when the supply of something increases, its price
falls. In other words, if China had a more normal amount of
reserve holdings, the value of the dollar would fall,
increasing the competitiveness of U.S. goods and services,
thereby reducing the trade deficit.
At the beginning of the piece, Porter discusses the
question of China's currency "manipulation." (I would much
prefer the more neutral and accurate term "currency
management." There is nothing very secret here.) He tells
readers:
"It would be hard, these days, to find an economist who
feels China fits the bill."
Perhaps. Of course it would have been difficult to find an
economist who recognized the $8 trillion housing bubble, the
collapse of which wrecked the economy. As the saying goes,
"economists are not very good at economics."
Sam Coates,
Deputy Political Editor | David Charter
April 12 2017, 12:01am,
The Times
One senior Tory described the outcome of the G7 meeting in
Italy as a humiliation for Boris Johnson and Britain
Boris Johnson was left embarrassed last night after his
demands for fresh sanctions against Russia over its backing
for President Assad of Syria were publicly rebuffed by
European allies.
The final communiqué after a two-day meeting of G7 nations
in Lucca, Italy, made no mention of the foreign secretary's
proposal to isolate Vladimir Putin and impose sanctions on
Russian military figures.
Italy and France rejected Mr Johnson's position, and one
senior Tory described the outcome as a humiliation for
Britain.
The comments came as Rex Tillerson, the US secretary of
state, flew to Moscow to confront the Kremlin over its
support for Assad after a gas attack last week that led the
US to respond with missile strikes on a Syrian airbase.
"... In the same interview, Trump told Goodwin that, despite last week's airstrike, U.S. policy toward Syria has not changed. "We're not going into Syria," Trump said. "Our policy is the same - it hasn't changed. We're not going into Syria." ..."
"... Trump also acknowledged a growing rift with Russia - "We're not exactly on the same wavelength with Russia, to put it mildly" - again called the nuclear deal with Iran "the single worst deal ever," and said of the worsening nuclear situation with North Korea: "I knew I was left a mess, but it's worse than I thought." ..."
The biggest problem with Trump is his total dishonesty and the ease with which he lies with complete abandon to suit his Fake
News Spin
Here he fails to endorse Bannon, but hasn't tossed him from the WH and says he likes "Steve", the US won't go into Syria once
again giving Assad and Putin a win in Syria, that the US and Russia are at odds, calls the Iran Nuclear Deal the worst deal ever
declaring "the mess he inherited worse than he thought", yet has done nothing to help Tillerson in Moscow or sent a message to
Iran's government.
Trump is a fraud as president and human being, imo. The GOP deserves every day he's president.
"Trump declines to endorse Bannon, says U.S. 'not going into Syria'"
By Mike Murphy, Editor...Apr 11, 2017...11:00 p.m. ET
"President Donald Trump declined to give top adviser Steve Bannon a vote of confidence during a New York Post interview published
Tuesday, in which he also said the U.S. was not headed toward a ground war in Syria.
There have been reports of discord among Trump's top White House advisers, and rumors that controversial chief strategist Bannon
may be on the way out. Last week, Bannon and Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, were reportedly told to iron out their differences.
When asked Monday by Post columnist Michael Goodwin if he still had confidence in Bannon, Trump didn't exactly give a ringing
endorsement: "I like Steve, but you have to remember he was not involved in my campaign until very late. I had already beaten
all the senators and all the governors, and I didn't know Steve. I'm my own strategist and it wasn't like I was going to change
strategies because I was facing crooked Hillary."
"Steve is a good guy, but I told them to straighten it out or I will," Trump said.
In the same interview, Trump told Goodwin that, despite last week's airstrike, U.S. policy toward Syria has not changed. "We're
not going into Syria," Trump said. "Our policy is the same - it hasn't changed. We're not going into Syria."
Trump also acknowledged a growing rift with Russia - "We're not exactly on the same wavelength with Russia, to put it mildly"
- again called the nuclear deal with Iran "the single worst deal ever," and said of the worsening nuclear situation with North
Korea: "I knew I was left a mess, but it's worse than I thought."
Blanchard (2016), Korinek (2015) and Wren-Lewis (2017) worry that the current standards and editorial
criteria in macroeconomics undermine promising ideas, deter needed diversity in the topics covered,
and impose mindless work on DSGEs that brings little useful knowledge to policy discussions.
Smith (2016) emphasizes that we have far less data than what we would need to adequately test
our models, and Romer (2016) that identification is the perennial challenge for social sciences.
Smith (2014) and Coyle and Haldane (2014) characterize the state of economics, not as the perennial
glass half full and half empty, but rather as two glasses, one full and the other empty. In their
view, applied empirical economists have been celebrating their successes, while macroeconomists lament
their losses.
... ... ...
A related criticism of macroeconomics is that it ignores financial factors. Macroeconomists supposedly
failed to anticipate the crisis because they were enamored by models where financial markets and
institutions were absent, as all financing was assumed to be efficient (De Grawe, 2009, Skidelsky,
2009). The field would be in denial if it continued to ignore these macro-financial links.
One area where macroeconomists have perhaps more of an influence is in monetary policy. Central
banks hire more PhD economists than any other policy institution, and in the United States, the current
and past chair of the Federal Reserve are distinguished academic macroeconomists, as have been several
members of the FOMC over the years. In any given week, there are at least one conference and dozens
of seminars hosted at central banks all over the world where the latest academic research is discussed.
The speeches of central bank governors refer to academic papers in macroeconomics more than those
by any other policymaker.
... ... ...
A separate criticism of macroeconomic policy advice accuses it of being politically biased. Since
the early days of the field, with Keynes and the Great Depression, macroeconomics was associated
with aggressive and controversial policies and with researchers that wore other hats as public intellectuals.
Even more recently, during the rational expectations microfoundations revolution of the 1970s, early
papers had radical policy recommendations, like the result that all systematic aggregate-demand policy
is ineffective, and some leading researchers had strong political views. Romer (2016) criticizes
modern macroeconomics for raising questions about what should be obvious truths, like the effect
of monetary policy on output. He lays blame on the influence that Edward Prescott, Robert Lucas and
Thomas Sargent had on field. Krugman (2009) in turn, claims the problem of macroeconomics is ideology,
and in particular points to the fierce battles between different types of macroeconomists in the
1970s and 1980s, described by Hall (1976) in terms of saltwater versus freshwater camps.
Macroeconomists, instead, are asked to routinely produce forecasts to guide fiscal and monetary
policy, and are perhaps too eager to comply. As I wrote in Reis (2010) " by setting themselves the
goal of unconditional forecasting of aggregate variables, macroeconomists are setting such a high
bar that they are almost sure to fail."
...Forecasting when economic agents themselves are forecasting your forecast to anticipate the
policies that will be adopted involves strategic thinking and game theory that goes well beyond the
standard statistical toolbox. Very few economists that I know of would defend themselves too vigorously
against the frequent criticisms of forecasting failures by economists. As is regularly shown, macroeconomic
forecasts come with large and often serially correlated errors.10
...At the same time, the way that forecasts are mis-read and mis-interpreted is part of the problem.
As much as economists state that their forecasts are probabilities, and come with confidence bands,
they are reported in the media always as point estimates
...Compare how economics does relative to the medical sciences. Analogies across sciences are
always very tricky, and must be taken with a large grain of salt. Moreover, surely economists are
still far from being as useful as dentists, like Keynes dreamed of, let alone to have made a contribution
to human welfare that is close to the one by doctors or biologists. The comparison to make is much
more narrow and limited, restricted only to how economic forecasts compare to medical forecasts.
...Currently, the major and almost single public funder for economic research in the United States
is the National Science Foundation. Its 2015 budget for the whole of social, behavioral and economic
sciences was $276 million. The part attributed to its social and economic sciences group was $98
million.
Krugman's hectoring the French will probably have the same effect as his hectoring the Brits on
Brexit.
'Very knowledgeable persons' just don't know when to shut up.
Apparently it's easier for Krugman to rant about French elections than to tell us what he's
been learning about inequality at his day job at the CUNY Luxembourg Income Study Center!
'Very knowledgeable persons' just don't know when to shut up....
[ The meanness is ceaseless and covers a lack of substance, but the meanness is intolerable.
I will never bother to read another post by this person. ]
Would you prefer that I say: "Though the honorable Mr. Krugman is entitled to use his bully pulpit
at the NY Times any way he sees fit, recent events suggest that current practice has proven to
be less than optimal. The wisdom of using the bully pulpit in such manner should be carefully
reconsidered and, if necessary, modified to achieve the goals that Mr. Krugman professes to espouse...unless,
of course, the goal is in fact to realize the goal that the honorable Mr. Krugman claims to oppose."
Dr Krugman ignored another wrinkle in France leaving the euro; the euro
itself.
While GB joined the EU, it retained the british pound. So, Brexit won't
affect it monetarily. France, on the other hand, did convert to the euro
(in hindsight, another enormous mistake). Each euro has an identifier, similar
to how we designate the origin by Fed Reserve, which designates it's country
of origin.
So, should France leave the EU, would euros held by, say, someone in
Italy then become worthless? This isn't someone most people concern themselves
with. When was the last time someone on this blog check to see which dollars
in your wallet came from the Denver Fed? But, it may well be that the EU
would stop honoring French euros, should they leave.
Interesting conjecture, but a Euro printed in France belongs to the Euro
Area rather than to France in the same way that a dollar printed in Denver
belongs to the United States. There is by the way, to my understanding,
no treaty provision describing how any country in the Euro Area might leave.
"Start with the euro. The single currency was and is a flawed project, and
countries that never joined – Sweden, the UK, Iceland – have benefited from
the flexibility that comes from independent currencies. There is, however,
a huge difference between choosing not to join in the first place and leaving
once in."
Okay, but then the bank reserves
which are held at the Fed by law could be defined as part of "outside money", because they
aren't backed by anything in the private economy. Those reserves are established, or insisted
upon, by government fiat, in essence. We know those reserves are not really backed by a precious
metal or anything else but faith. So why are bank reserves held at the Fed not included in
the definition of "outside money"?
From the standpoint of the private
economy, reserves are 'outside money", because they circulate only within the Fed system. Currency
is inside money because it circulates within the private economy, although it also circulates
between government and private banks.
The monetary base is both currency and reserves.
So it takes a clear understanding of the purpose of the discussion and maybe even a Venn
diagram.
Outside money
is money that is either of a fiat nature (unbacked) or backed by some asset that is not in
zero net supply within the private sector of the economy.
Thus, outside money is a net asset for the private sector. The qualifier outside is short
for (coming from) outside the private sector.
Inside money is an asset representing, or backed by, any form of private credit that circulates
as a medium of exchange.
Since it is one private agent's liability and at the same time some other agent's asset,
inside money is in zero net supply within the private sector.
The qualifier inside is short for (backed by debt from) inside the private sector.
These are entries in accounts owned by the banks and put there by the banks and
are money. These can not be 'taken' by the govt without compensation per law.
JF, Sorry, I only meant that
the minimum reserves are established by the decree of the public-private partnership known
as the central bank. So I was using "fiat" in the sense of "law". I should not have written
that the bank reserves are established by gov't "fiat" in a discussion about money, because
that is confusing.
And the reason for this law is to make sure that banks can cover their
needs for cash, to prevent a run on the banking system.
But what this means, is that the ultimate foundation of part of the individual's trust in
the money that is used, is based upon the existence of the requirement for bank reserves. Otherwise,
people wouldn't trust the money supply. The trust is not based on any function more basic than
bank reserves.
What else do people trust? Well of course people already trust paper notes and coins in
daily transactions: they automatically suppose that the gov't backs it up. Backs it up, with
what?, they do not know; but it works. And for checks and debits, they suppose that the bank
is good for the cash -- which ultimately is based on the reserve requirement. So therefore,
"trust" of money by the common folk is presently based upon 2 things, the existence of currency
and the (vaguely understood yet reassuring) existence of bank reserves.
Well, the "money base" is defined as reserves + cash & coin. However, this seems to me to
be the same definition as "outside money". So I am still wondering if there is another difference
between the definitions.
Certainly people think of gold & silver as money, but if that is the only difference between
"monetary base" and "outside money", I think it would be easy to alter the definition of "currency"
to include them.
"... First. Robert Rubin was a main architect of the high dollar policy that led to the explosion of the trade deficit in the last decade. This led to the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs and decimating communities across the Midwest. Second, Rubin was a major advocate of financial deregulation during his years in the Clinton administration. Finally, Rubin was a direct beneficiary of deregulation, since he left the administration to take a top job at Citigroup. He made over $100 million in this position before he resigned in the financial crisis when bad loans had essentially put Citigroup into bankruptcy. (It was saved by government bailouts.) ..."
"... It is important to recognize that the Fed is currently dominated by people with close ties to the financial industry. The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) which determines interest rate policy has 19 members. While 7 are governors appointed by the president and approved by Congress (only 4 of the governor seats are currently filled), 12 are presidents of the district banks. These bank presidents are appointed through a process dominated by the banks in the district. (Only 5 of the 12 presidents have a vote at any one time, but all 12 participate in discussions.) ..."
Robert Rubin, Who Made a Fortune on the Housing Bubble, Argues for Preserving Wall Street's Power
Over the Fed
The Federal Reserve Board has more direct control over the economy than any other institution
in the country. When it decides to raise interest rates to slow the economy, it can ensure that millions
of workers don't get jobs and prevent tens of millions more from getting the bargaining power they
need to gain wage increases. For this reason, it is very important who is making the calls on interest
rates and who they are listening to.
Robert Rubin, who served as Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration, weighed in * today
in the New York Times to argue for the status quo. There are a few important background points on
Rubin that are worth mentioning before getting into the substance.
First. Robert Rubin was a main architect of the high dollar policy that led to the explosion of
the trade deficit in the last decade. This led to the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs and
decimating communities across the Midwest. Second, Rubin was a major advocate of financial deregulation
during his years in the Clinton administration. Finally, Rubin was a direct beneficiary of deregulation,
since he left the administration to take a top job at Citigroup. He made over $100 million in this
position before he resigned in the financial crisis when bad loans had essentially put Citigroup
into bankruptcy. (It was saved by government bailouts.)
Rubin touts the current apolitical nature of the Fed. He warns about:
"Efforts to denigrate the integrity of the Fed's work, and to inject groundless opinion, politics
and ideology, must be rejected by the board - and that means governors and other members of the Federal
Open Market Committee must be willing to withstand aggressive attacks."
It is important to recognize that the Fed is currently dominated by people with close ties to
the financial industry. The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) which determines interest rate policy
has 19 members. While 7 are governors appointed by the president and approved by Congress (only 4
of the governor seats are currently filled), 12 are presidents of the district banks. These bank
presidents are appointed through a process dominated by the banks in the district. (Only 5 of the
12 presidents have a vote at any one time, but all 12 participate in discussions.)
It seems bizarre to describe this process as apolitical or imply there is great integrity here.
Rubin's claim is particularly ironic in light of the fact that one of the bank presidents was just
forced to resign ** after admitting to leaking confidential information on interest rate policy to
a financial analyst.
There is good reason for the public to be unhappy about the Fed's excessive concern over inflation
*** over the last four decades and inadequate attention to unemployment. This arguably reflects the
interests of the financial industry, which often stands to lose from higher inflation and have little
interest in the level of employment. It is understandable that someone who has made his fortune in
the financial industry would want to protect the status quo with the Fed, but there is little reason
for the rest of us to take him seriously.
T Read the Reis article and I'm much relieved. State-o'-the-art mascro = which didn't even include
financial sectors at the time of the Great Recession (I mean really -how could that be a problem?)
- is now on the right track. Yes, adding more epicycles will do the trick. Because as we all know,
the sun, moon, planets and stars revolve around the earth.
Reply
Wednesday, April 12, 2017 at 06:05 AM libezkova -> T... ,
April 12, 2017 at 08:26 AM
This guy is funny (and actually rather clueless, Summers is much better ) defender of "Flat
Earth" theory:
== quote ==
A related criticism of macroeconomics is that it ignores financial factors. Macroeconomists
supposedly failed to anticipate the crisis because they were enamored by models where financial
markets and institutions were absent, as all financing was assumed to be efficient (De Grawe,
2009, Skidelsky, 2009). The field would be in denial if it continued to ignore these macro-financial
links.
One area where macroeconomists have perhaps more of an influence is in monetary policy. Central
banks hire more PhD economists than any other policy institution, and in the United States, the
current and past chair of the Federal Reserve are distinguished academic macroeconomists, as have
been several members of the FOMC over the years. In any given week, there are at least one conference
and dozens of seminars hosted at central banks all over the world where the latest academic research
is discussed. The speeches of central bank governors refer to academic papers in macroeconomics
more than those by any other policymaker.
... ... ...
A separate criticism of macroeconomic policy advice accuses it of being politically biased. Since
the early days of the field, with Keynes and the Great Depression, macroeconomics was associated
with aggressive and controversial policies and with researchers that wore other hats as public
intellectuals. Even more recently, during the rational expectations microfoundations revolution
of the 1970s, early papers had radical policy recommendations, like the result that all systematic
aggregate-demand policy is ineffective, and some leading researchers had strong political views.
Romer (2016) criticizes modern macroeconomics for raising questions about what should be obvious
truths, like the effect of monetary policy on output. He lays blame on the influence that Edward
Prescott, Robert Lucas and Thomas Sargent had on field. Krugman (2009) in turn, claims the problem
of macroeconomics is ideology, and in particular points to the fierce battles between different
types of macroeconomists in the 1970s and 1980s, described by Hall (1976) in terms of saltwater
versus freshwater camps.
...Macroeconomists, instead, are asked to routinely produce forecasts to guide fiscal and monetary
policy, and are perhaps too eager to comply.
Money quote: "An economics that helps us to live within the doughnut would seek to reduce inequalities
in wealth and income. Wealth arising from the gifts of nature would be widely shared. Money, markets,
taxation and public investment would be designed to conserve and regenerate resources rather than
squander them. State-owned banks would invest in projects that transform our relationship with
the living world, such as zero-carbon public transport and community energy schemes. New metrics
would measure genuine prosperity, rather than the speed with which we degrade our long-term prospects."
Macroeconomists largely stopped paying attention to income distribution and turned their attention
to growth decades ago. Even today, folks like Krugman, who are paid handsomely to study inequality,
don't like to talk about it much.
"Mainstream" economics was at one time "classical"
economics (Smith, Ricardo, Mills), then "neoclassical" (Jevon,
Menger, Clark), then "Keynesian", then "neoclassical
synthesis" (Neo Keynesian, New Keynesian, Samuelson et al).
So maybe history of economic thought would be a good place
for a new student to start.
"So maybe history of economic thought would be a good place
for a new student to start."
That's a naïve suggestion,
unless you are engaged in self-study of economics.
On university level this will never happen as this
represents a direct danger to neoclassical status quo. And
here I mean not only Marx and Keynes. But also Thorstein
Veblen (especially "The Theory of the Leisure Class"), Karl
Polanyi and Hyman Minsky.
Neoclassical stooges are extremely afraid even mentioning
them (with few exception such as bastartised notions of
Minsky moment and Veblen goods).
They prefer teaching "the art of mathematical
masturbation", actually somewhat related to the activities of
creators of games like Civilization, but much more
destructive socially and economically. And they became high
priests of neoliberal ideology (with corresponding monetary
benefits). That's why they carefully avoid even mentioning
the moral aspects and policy-making aspect of any
macroeconomic theory.
Studying neoclassical economic became the main tool of
brainwashing students into neoliberal way of thinking. People
say that neoliberals deliberately emulated all tricks
Bolshevism/Trotskyism used for indoctrination, brainwashing
and getting to power and applied it to securing the
restoration of the rule of financial oligarchy, which was
undermined by the New Deal.
I think that they outdid Bolsheviks in using neo-classical
economics as a tool for brainwashing people into
neoliberalism. Even in comparison with the role "Bolshevized"
version Marx political economy that was taught in Soviet
universities, because one feature of Marxism is that it
advanced historic approach -- which partially spoiled the
effectiveness of brainwashing -- as you can read, say Adam
Smith and Marx original writings (in case of Marx you were
required to do this to pass the exam) and see some
discrepancies with Marx interpretation and Bolsheviks
interpretation (as Marx once sad: "I am not a Marxist" ;-)
With mathiness this avenue of preserving tiny bits of
critical thinking is all closed. Everybody became "freakonomist"
after graduation (or, let's say 99%). As a new civil
religion, this is a very effective and sticky cult. No
questions about it.
I would say more. They now are afraid mentioning Milton
Friedman, because it is clear that he was a politically
charged charlatan (and actually a criminal, if we remember
his support of Pinochet and all Chicago boys story).
Summarizing I would say that the explicit goal of
neoclassical economy is to discard all history and treat
economics as physics. So ahistorism is a feature not a bug.
Before proceeding, I wish to make it quite clear that in referencing Keynes or Keynesianism,
I am referring to John Maynard Keynes of 'The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money'
(GT) and I am not referring to neo Keynesianism or new Keynesianism or any variant of the so-called
neo classical synthesis (which, imo, is one of the most dishonest actions ever taken by an academic)
devised by Paul Samuelson and others at MIT.
With that said, I would first note that Keynes titled chapter 24 of GT:
"Concluding Notes on the Social Philosophy towards which the General Theory might Lead"
and began the chapter with:
"The outstanding faults of the economic society in which we live are its failure to provide
for full employment and its arbitrary and inequitable distribution of wealth and incomes."
Keynes next remarks on the progress toward equality in Great Britain attained via taxation
of income and inheritance taxes and argues that these measures, in conditions of less than full
employment, are, contrary to common belief, actually conducive to increased investment:
" Thus our argument leads towards the conclusion that in contemporary conditions the growth
of wealth, so far from being dependent on the abstinence of the rich, as is commonly supposed,
is more likely to be impeded by it. One of the chief social justifications of great inequality
of wealth is, therefore, removed. "
Keynes particularly approves of taxing inheritances:
"This particularly affects our attitude towards death duties: for there are certain justifications
for inequality of incomes which do not apply equally to inequality of inheritances."
Keynes then debunks the theory that interest is a reward for saving:
"The justification for a moderately high rate of interest has been found hitherto in the necessity
of providing a sufficient inducement to save. But we have shown that the extent of effective saving
is necessarily determined by the scale of investment and that the scale of investment is promoted
by a low rate of interest, provided that we do not attempt to stimulate it in this way beyond
the point which corresponds to full employment. Thus it is to our best advantage to reduce the
rate of interest to that point relatively to the schedule of the marginal efficiency of capital
at which there is full employment.
"I feel sure that the demand for capital is strictly limited in the sense that it would not
be difficult to increase the stock of capital up to a point where its marginal efficiency had
fallen to a very low figure"
And then Keynes heralds the "euthanasia of the rentier" and "the cumulative oppressive power of
the capitalist to exploit the scarcity-value of capital." because the state can supply adequate
capital:
"Now, though this state of affairs would be quite compatible with some measure of individualism,
yet it would mean the euthanasia of the rentier, and, consequently, the euthanasia of the cumulative
oppressive power of the capitalist to exploit the scarcity-value of capital. Interest today rewards
no genuine sacrifice, any more than does the rent of land. The owner of capital can obtain interest
because capital is scarce, just as the owner of land can obtain rent because land is scarce. But
whilst there may be intrinsic reasons for the scarcity of land, there are no intrinsic reasons
for the scarcity of capital. An intrinsic reason for such scarcity, in the sense of a genuine
sacrifice which could only be called forth by the offer of a reward in the shape of interest,
would not exist, in the long run, except in the event of the individual propensity to consume
proving to be of such a character that net saving in conditions of full employment comes to an
end before capital has become sufficiently abundant. But even so, it will still be possible for
communal saving through the agency of the State to be maintained at a level which will allow the
growth of capital up to the point where it ceases to be scarce."
But this "euthanasia" can take place gradually and need not require a revolution:
"I see, therefore, the rentier aspect of capitalism as a transitional phase which will disappear
when it has done its work. And with the disappearance of its rentier aspect much else in it besides
will suffer a sea-change. It will be, moreover, a great advantage of the order of events which
I am advocating, that the euthanasia of the rentier, of the functionless investor, will be nothing
sudden, merely a gradual but prolonged continuance of what we have seen recently in Great Britain,
and will need no revolution.
"Thus we might aim in practice (there being nothing in this which is unattainable) at an increase
in the volume of capital until it ceases to be scarce, so that the functionless investor will
no longer receive a bonus; and at a scheme of direct taxation which allows the intelligence and
determination and executive skill of the financier, the entrepreneur et hoc genus omne (who are
certainly so fond of their craft that their labour could be obtained much cheaper than at present),
to be harnessed to the service of the community on reasonable terms of reward."
Then keynes notes that although his prescription will entail a greater role for the state and
"a somewhat comprehensive socialisation of investment" , it will not eliminate the role of individual
entrepreneurship:
"In some other respects the foregoing theory is moderately conservative in its implications. For
whilst it indicates the vital importance of establishing certain central controls in matters which
are now left in the main to individual initiative, there are wide fields of activity which are
unaffected. The State will have to exercise a guiding influence on the propensity to consume partly
through its scheme of taxation, partly by fixing the rate of interest, and partly, perhaps, in
other ways. Furthermore, it seems unlikely that the influence of banking policy on the rate of
interest will be sufficient by itself to determine an optimum rate of investment. I conceive,
therefore, that a somewhat comprehensive socialisation of investment will prove the only means
of securing an approximation to full employment; though this need not exclude all manner of compromises
and of devices by which public authority will co-operate with private initiative. But beyond this
no obvious case is made out for a system of State Socialism which would embrace most of the economic
life of the community. It is not the ownership of the instruments of production which it is important
for the State to assume. If the State is able to determine the aggregate amount of resources devoted
to augmenting the instruments and the basic rate of reward to those who own them, it will have
accomplished all that is necessary. Moreover, the necessary measures of socialisation can be introduced
gradually and without a break in the general traditions of society"
And he proceeds to describe the advantages of individualism:
"Let us stop for a moment to remind ourselves what these advantages are. They are partly advantages
of efficiency - the advantages of decentralisation and of the play of self-interest. The advantage
to efficiency of the decentralisation of decisions and of individual responsibility is even greater,
perhaps, than the nineteenth century supposed; and the reaction against the appeal to self-interest
may have gone too far. But, above all, individualism, if it can be purged of its defects and its
abuses, is the best safeguard of personal liberty in the sense that, compared with any other system,
it greatly widens the field for the exercise of personal choice. It is also the best safeguard
of the variety of life, which emerges precisely from this extended field of personal choice, and
the loss of which is the greatest of all the losses of the homogeneous or totalitarian state.
For this variety preserves the traditions which embody the most secure and successful choices
of former generations; it colours the present with the diversification of its fancy; and, being
the handmaid of experiment as well as of tradition and of fancy, it is the most powerful instrument
to better the future.
"Whilst, therefore, the enlargement of the functions of government, involved in the task of adjusting
to one another the propensity to consume and the inducement to invest, would seem to a nineteenth-century
publicist or to a contemporary American financier to be a terrific encroachment on individualism.
I defend it, on the contrary, both as the only practicable means of avoiding the destruction of
existing economic forms in their entirety and as the condition of the successful functioning of
individual initiative."
And furthermore, not only will the prescribed system be to the advantage of all, it will also
forestall the temptation to even more drastic measures and preclude the merchantilist and imperialist
temptations of the recent past:
"War has several causes. Dictators and others such, to whom war offers, in expectation at least,
a pleasurable excitement, find it easy to work on the natural bellicosity of their peoples. But,
over and above this, facilitating their task of fanning the popular flame, are the economic causes
of war, namely, the pressure of population and the competitive struggle for markets. It is the
second factor, which probably played a predominant part in the nineteenth century, and might again,
that is germane to this discussion.
"I have pointed out in the preceding chapter that, under the system of domestic laissez-faire
and an international gold standard such as was orthodox in the latter half of the nineteenth century,
there was no means open to a government whereby to mitigate economic distress at home except through
the competitive struggle for markets. For all measures helpful to a state of chronic or intermittent
under-employment were ruled out, except measures to improve the balance of trade on income account."
The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) began in 1949. Under the leadership of Mao Zedong the PRC
introduced Soviet-style Marxism and other "socialization" programs that resulted in famine and
other catastrophes, although national sovereignty was established.
Upon Mao's death in 1976 chinese leadership became uncertain. During some transition until
roughly 1980 market mechanisms were introduced alongside central planning.
In 1982 Deng Xioping introduced "reform and opening", which meant essentially economic reform
internally and a greater focus on foreign trade. And in 1992 he announced a focus on creating
a "socialist market economy", which entailed state control of primary industries and banking alongside
greater autonomy for secondary commercial enterprises.
Since Deng's reforms, China has far outpaced the rest of the world in economic performance.
Keynes analysed capitalist economies and concluded that "a somewhat comprehensive socialisation
of investment will prove the only means of securing an approximation to full employment; though
this need not exclude all manner of compromises and of devices by which public authority will
co-operate with private initiative. "
The leadership of the PRC analysed and managed the Chinese economy and concluded that a "socialist
market economy" was the proper system.
So from opposite directions Keynes and the Chinese arrived at the same destination. Keynes wanted
to preserve the market mechanism, the Chinese wanted to preserve Marxist socialism. They each
arrived at a centrally-controlled economy with significant market mechanisms.
Oil is in a solid
range that will keep oil pumping from all sources, there will be no shortages and price will be capped
by supply, imo, no higher than $56 to $60.
"EIA reports first weekly U.S. crude-oil supply decline in a month"
By Myra P. Saefong, Markets/commodities reporter...Apr 12, 2017...10:37 a.m. ET
"Oil futures extended gains Wednesday after data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration
showed that domestic crude supplies fell by 2.2 million barrels for the week ended April 7. The American
Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported a 1.3 million-barrel decline, according to sources, while
analysts polled by S&P Global Platts forecast a climb of 125,000 barrels. Gasoline supplies also
declined by 3 million barrels, while distillate stockpiles were down by 2.2 million barrels last
week, according to the EIA. May crude CLK7, -0.24% rose 13 cents, or 0.2%, to $53.54 a barrel on
the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was trading at $53.46 before the supply data."
almost all the increment in incomes
has been harvested by the top 1%. As values,
principles and moral purpose are lost, the promise of growth is all that's left.
You can see the effects in a
leaked memo
from the UK's Foreign Office: "Trade and growth are now priorities
for all posts work like climate change and illegal wildlife trade will be scaled
down." All that counts is the rate at which we turn natural wealth into cash. If this
destroys our prosperity and the wonders that surround us, who cares?
We cannot hope to address our predicament without a new worldview. We cannot use
the models that caused our crises to solve them. We need to reframe the problem. This
is what the most inspiring book published so far this year has done.
In
Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist
, Kate
Raworth of Oxford University's Environmental Change Institute reminds us that
economic growth was not, at first, intended to signify wellbeing.
Simon Kuznets
, who standardised the measurement of growth, warned: "The welfare
of a nation can scarcely be inferred from a measure of national income." Economic
growth, he pointed out, measured only annual flow, rather than stocks of wealth and
their distribution.
Raworth
points out that economics in the 20th century "lost the desire to
articulate its goals". It aspired to be a science of human behaviour: a science based
on a deeply flawed portrait of humanity. The dominant model – "rational economic
man", self-interested, isolated, calculating – says more about the nature of
economists than it does about other humans. The loss of an explicit objective allowed
the discipline to be captured by a proxy goal: endless growth.
The aim of economic activity, she argues, should be "meeting the needs of all
within the means of the planet". Instead of economies that need to grow, whether or
not they make us thrive, we need economies that "make us thrive, whether or not they
grow". This means changing our picture of what the economy is and how it works.
The central image in mainstream economics is the circular flow diagram. It depicts
a closed flow of income cycling between households, businesses, banks, government and
trade, operating in a social and ecological vacuum. Energy, materials, the natural
world, human society, power, the wealth we hold in common all are missing from the
model. The unpaid work of carers – principally women – is ignored, though no economy
could function without them. Like rational economic man, this representation of
economic activity bears little relationship to reality.
So Raworth begins by redrawing the economy. She embeds it in the Earth's systems
and in society, showing how it depends on the flow of materials and energy, and
reminding us that we are more than just workers, consumers and owners of capital.
"Okay, step back and
absorb this one. Mr. Prasad is saying that millions of manufacturing workers in the Midwest lost
their jobs and saw their communities decimated because the Bush administration wanted to press China
to enforce Pfizer's patents on drugs, Microsoft's copyrights on Windows, and to secure better access
to China's financial markets for Goldman Sachs.
This is not a new story, in fact I say it all the time. But it's nice to have the story confirmed
by the person who occupied the International Monetary Fund's China desk at the time.
Porter then jumps in and gets his story completely 100 percent wrong:
"At the end of the day, economists argued at the time, Chinese exchange rate policies didn't cost
the United States much. After all, in 2007 the United States was operating at full employment. The
trade deficit was because of Americans' dismal savings rate and supercharged consumption, not a cheap
renminbi. After all, if Americans wanted to consume more than they created, they had to get it somewhere."
Sorry, this was the time when even very calm sensible people like Federal Reserve Board Chair
Ben Bernanke were talking about a "savings glut." The U.S. and the world had too much savings, which
lead to a serious problem of unemployment. Oh, we did eventually find a way to deal with excess savings.
Anyone remember the housing bubble?"
I don't remember Krugman or PGL saying China or trade policy was a problem at the time. They'd
just argue the Fed needs to lower rates to compensate.
Trump Isn't Wrong on China Currency Manipulation, Just Late
by Eduardo Porter
ECONOMIC SCENE APRIL 11, 2017
Has the United States mismanaged the ascent of China?
By April 15, the Treasury Department is required to present to Congress a report on the
exchange rate policies of the country's major trading partners, intended to identify manipulators
that cheapen their currency to make their exports more attractive and gain market share in
the United States, a designation that could eventually lead to retaliation.
It would be hard, these days, to find an economist who feels China fits the bill. Under
a trade law passed in 2015, a country must meet three criteria: It would have to have a "material"
trade surplus with the rest of the world, have a "significant" surplus with the United States,
and intervene persistently in foreign exchange markets to push its currency in one direction.
While China's surplus with the United States is pretty big - almost $350 billion - its global
surplus is modest, at 2.4 percent of its gross domestic product last year. Most significant,
it has been pushing its currency up, not down. Since the middle of 2014 it has sold over $1
trillion from its reserves to prop up the renminbi, under pressure from capital flight by Chinese
companies and savers.
Even President Trump - who as a candidate promised to label China a currency manipulator
on Day 1 and put a 45 percent tariff on imports of Chinese goods - seems to be backing away
from broad, immediate retaliation.
And yet the temptation remains. "When you talk about currency manipulation, when you talk
about devaluations," the Chinese "are world champions," Mr. Trump told The Financial Times,
ahead of the state visit of the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, to the United States last week.
For all Mr. Trump's random impulsiveness and bluster - and despite his lack of a coherent
strategy to engage with what is likely soon to become the world's biggest economy - he is not
entirely alone with his views.
Many learned economists and policy experts ruefully acknowledge that the president's intuition
is broadly right: While labeling China a currency manipulator now would look ridiculous, the
United States should have done it a long time ago.
"With the benefit of hindsight, China should have been named," said Brad Setser, an expert
on international economics and finance who worked in the Obama administration and is now at
the Council on Foreign Relations.
There were reasonable arguments against putting China on the spot and starting a process
that could eventually lead to American retaliation.
Yet by not pushing back against China's currency manipulation, and allowing China to deploy
an arsenal of trade tactics of dubious legality to increase exports to the United States, successive
administrations - Republican and Democratic - arguably contributed to the economic dislocations
that pummeled so many American workers over more than a decade. Those dislocations helped propel
Mr. Trump to power.
From 2000 to 2014 China definitely suppressed the rise of the renminbi to maintain a competitive
advantage for its exports, buying dollars hand over fist and adding $4 trillion to its foreign
reserves over the period. Until 2005, the Chinese government kept the renminbi pegged to the
dollar, following it down as the greenback slid against other major currencies starting in
2003.
American multinationals were flocking into China, taking advantage of its entry into the
World Trade Organization in December 2001, which guaranteed access to the American and other
world markets for its exports. By 2007, China's broad trade surplus hit 10 percent of its gross
domestic product - an unheard-of imbalance for an economy this large. And its surplus with
the United States amounted to a full third of the American deficit with the world.
Though the requirement that the Treasury identify currency manipulators "gaining unfair
competitive advantage in international trade" dates back to the Omnibus Trade and Competitiveness
Act of 1988, China was never called out.
There were good reasons. Or at least they seemed so at the time. For one, China hands in
the administration of George W. Bush argued that putting China on the spot would make negotiations
more difficult, because even Chinese leaders who understood the need to allow their currency
to rise could not be seen to bow to American pressure.
Labeling China a manipulator could have severely hindered progress in other areas of a complex
bilateral economic relationship. And the United States had bigger fish to fry.
"There were other dimensions of China's economic policies that were seen as more important
to U.S. economic and business interests," Eswar Prasad, who headed the China desk at the International
Monetary Fund and is now a professor at Cornell, told me. These included "greater market access,
better intellectual property rights protection, easier access to investment opportunities,
etc."
At the end of the day, economists argued at the time, Chinese exchange rate policies didn't
cost the United States much. After all, in 2007 the United States was operating at full employment.
The trade deficit was because of Americans' dismal savings rate and supercharged consumption,
not a cheap renminbi. After all, if Americans wanted to consume more than they created, they
had to get it somewhere.
And the United States had a stake in China's rise. A crucial strategic goal of American
foreign policy since Mao's death had been how to peacefully incorporate China into the existing
order of free-market economies, bound by international law into the fabric of the postwar multilateral
institutions.
And the strategy even worked - a little bit. China did allow its currency to rise a little
from 2005 to 2008. And when the financial crisis hit, it took the foot off the export pedal
and deployed a giant fiscal stimulus, which bolstered internal demand.
Yet though these arguments may all be true, they omitted an important consideration: The
overhaul of the world economy imposed by China's global rise also created losers.
In a set of influential papers that have come to inform the thinking about the United States'
relations with China, David Autor, Daron Acemoglu and Brendan Price from the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology; Gordon Hanson from the University of California, San Diego; and David
Dorn from the University of Zurich concluded that lots of American workers, in many communities,
suffered a blow from which they never recovered.
Rising Chinese imports from 1999 to 2011 cost up to 2.4 million American jobs, one paper
estimated. Another found that sagging wages in local labor markets exposed to Chinese competition
reduced earnings by $213 per adult per year.
Economic theory posited that a developed country like the United States would adjust to
import competition by moving workers into more advanced industries that competed successfully
in global markets. In the real world of American workers exposed to the rush of imports after
China erupted onto world markets, the adjustment didn't happen.
If mediocre job prospects and low wages didn't stop American families from consuming, it
was because the American financial system was flush with Chinese cash and willing to lend,
financing their homes and refinancing them to buy the furniture. But that equilibrium didn't
end well either, did it?
What it left was a lot of betrayed anger floating around among many Americans on the wrong
end of these dynamics. "By not following the law, the administration sent a political signal
that the U.S. wouldn't stand up to Chinese cheating," said Edward Alden, a senior fellow at
the Council on Foreign Relations. "As we can see now, that hurt in terms of maintaining political
support for open trade."
If there was a winner from this dynamic, it was Mr. Trump.
Will Mr. Trump really go after China? In addition to an expected executive order to retaliate
against the dumping of Chinese steel, he has promised more. He could tinker with the definitions
of "material" and "significant" trade surpluses to justify a manipulation charge.
And yet a charge of manipulation would add irony upon irony. "It would be incredibly ironic
not to have named China a manipulator when it was manipulating, and name it when it is not,"
Mr. Setser told me. And Mr. Trump would be retaliating against the economic dynamic that handed
him the presidency.
"What it left was a lot of betrayed
anger floating around among many Americans on the wrong end of these dynamics. "By not following
the law, the administration sent a political signal that the U.S. wouldn't stand up to Chinese
cheating," said Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. "As we can
see now, that hurt in terms of maintaining political support for open trade."
If there was
a winner from this dynamic, it was Mr. Trump."
So PGL the Facile and Krugman - the New Democrats - helped elect with their corporate free
trade.
Keynesian Economics Is Hot Again
By Noah Smith - Bloomberg
To the growing list of famous mainstream macroeconomists
who have publicly criticized their discipline, add another:
In a recent essay, * Lawrence Christiano of Northwestern
University argues that the Great Recession was an
"earthquake" that dramatically changed how researchers think
about the U.S. economy.
Christiano is known as a scholar who straddles
macroeconomics' great divide. His models adopt the basic form
and some of the bedrock assumptions of the New Classicals,
the economists who insisted in the 1980s that monetary and
fiscal policy can't fight recessions. But he also
incorporates some elements of Keynesianism, the idea that
aggregate demand shortages exist and can be corrected by the
government stimulus. Perhaps as a result of their centrist
take on that long-running debate, theories inspired by
Christiano's have won pride of place in central banks around
the world.
But after the Great Recession, Christiano says, the
pendulum should swing decisively in the Keynesian direction:
"The Great Recession was the response of the economy to a
negative shock to the demand for goods all across the board.
This is very much in the spirit of the traditional
macroeconomic paradigm captured by the [simple Keynesian]
model The Great Recession seems impossible to understand
without invoking shocks in aggregate demand. As a
consequence, the modern equivalent of the IS-LM model-the New
Keynesian model-has returned to center stage."
Another way of putting this is that Paul Krugman was
right. Krugman has long advocated ** that macroeconomists
learn to once again think in terms of simple simple Keynesian
theory. And when more fully developed, complex models are
needed, Krugman uses the kind of models *** that Christiano
endorses.
As Christiano mentioned, the New Keynesian revolution
isn't so new. Even in the 1990s, economists like Greg Mankiw
and Olivier Blanchard were arguing that monetary policy had
real effects on demand. And at the same time, international
macroeconomists were realizing that Japan's post-bubble
experience of slow growth, low interest rates and low
inflation implied that demand shortages could last for a very
long time unless the government rode to the rescue. Krugman,
Adam Posen, Lars Svensson, and others were already referring
to **** a Japan-type stagnation as a liquidity trap in the
late 1990s, and warning that standard monetary policy of
cutting interest rates wouldn't work in that sort of
situation.
But the profession didn't listen, and only the smallest
deviations from the New Classical orthodoxy were accepted
into the mainstream. The idea of fiscal stimulus was still
largely taboo. Nobel prizes were awarded to the economists
who made theories in which demand shortages can't exist,
while no Nobels were given to New Keynesians for suggesting
otherwise. When the Great Recession hit, some prominent
macroeconomists pooh-poohed the idea that stimulus could
help.
Christiano's essay should serve as a needed rebuke to the
profession for resisting Keynesian ideas just when they were
needed most. But it also raises an uncomfortable question:
Why didn't macroeconomists catch on until years after
disaster struck?
One explanation is sociological. Perhaps the influence of
legendary figures like Robert Lucas, Thomas Sargent and
Edward Prescott -- all anti-Keynesians who now have big gold
medals from Sweden -- was enough to scare younger economists
away Keynesian ideas. Some of macroeconomics' internal
critics, such as World Bank chief economist Paul Romer, have
suggested as much. Political considerations might have played
a role as well -- to many economists on the free-market end
of the ideological spectrum, Keynesianism represents
unacceptable government meddling.
But these explanations, by themselves, are unsatisfying.
In most scientific fields -- biology or astronomy, for
example -- the weight of evidence is enough to overcome
social fads and political bias. Even in most areas of
economics, empirical results gradually push the profession in
one direction or another. For example, relatively few
economists now believe a $15 minimum wage is likely to reduce
employment very much; a plurality is uncertain. The steady
drumbeat of papers showing small or zero job losses from
minimum-wage hikes probably played a role in altering the
expert consensus.
If economists gravitated toward anti-Keynesian theories,
it was at least in part because evidence wasn't strong enough
to push them in the right direction. It's just very hard to
assess the impacts of fiscal stimulus. For example, Japan's
tremendous government spending binge in the 1990s looks to a
casual observer like it had no effect, since the economy
didn't recover until years later -- but government spending
might have been the only thing saving the country from a
deeper recession.
For a great explanation of why macroeconomic evidence is
so weak and subject to multiple interpretations, read this
excellent post ***** by the University of Oregon's Mark
Thoma....
The intersection of the "investment–saving" (IS) and
"liquidity preference–money supply" (LM) curves models
"general equilibrium" where supposed simultaneous equilibrium
occurs in both interest and assets markets.
As such it is
very questionable, because the assumption of the existence of
general stochastic equilibrium -- the key postulate of
neo-classical theory -- is demonstratively false.
So the behavior of the system that is out of equilibrium
is not necessary directed toward restoration of the "old"
equilibrium. It might be moving to a new state with new
multiple equilibriums.
Much depends of the stability of the system which
by-and-large determined by both presence of negative feedback
loops and absence (or suppression) of positive feedback
loops. The latter are especially damaging to stability.
One interesting observation is that hypertrophied
financial system represent in itself a strong positive
feedback loop (as Hyman Minsky observed in this case
"stability is destabilizing").
In this sense, periodic financial shocks are immanent
feature of neoliberalism and the question about future
financial crisis is not "if" but "when."
Without the suppression of financial oligarchy like was
the case during the New Deal regime, the economic system
can't be made stable.
That's another meaning of the popular during the last
elections slogan of "draining the swamp" .
Indeed! "Why didn't macroeconomists catch on until years
after disaster struck?"
Worse yet, now that the economy is
widely perceived to have recovered, policy makers have no
reason to change. The Fed is widely perceived as having been
quite successful...even though it took most of a decade to
get there...at a snail's pace.
To suggest otherwise--that the Fed failed--is heresy. And
so, next time around we can look forward to exactly the same
policy: more trickle down Fed intervention and little fiscal
stimulus, because both economists and politicians are quite
content.
But has the economy really recovered? Well, the wealthy
were made whole by 2012 due to rising asset prices fueled by
low interest rates. Banks were recording record near record
profits by 2014. And Krugman started raving about the Obama
economy a couple years ago.
As for We, the people? Well, EPOP fell off a cliff and
never recovered. Real median household income never fully
recovered to levels it had reached in 2007 and 2012.
Trickle down monetary policy performed exactly as
intended...rewarding the rich and powerful while leaving
everyone else behind.
...Tontines, like Social Security, traditional pensions,
and life annuities, insure against the risk of living longer
than expected in retirement. The problem of outliving one's
savings has gotten worse as Social Security benefits have
been trimmed back and private sector employers have replaced
traditional pensions with 401(k)-style savings plans. In
theory, 401(k) savers can insure against longevity risk by
purchasing life annuities, but few actually do. There are
several reasons for this, starting with the fact that few
have significant savings to begin with-a problem exacerbated
by current low interest rates that lock annuitants into low
annual payments. In addition, potential buyers must navigate
complex and tricky insurance markets and face prices driven
up by adverse selection and asymmetric information, the
classic problem of markets for individual insurance whereby
people at greater risk (of living longer, in this case) are
more likely to purchase insurance and have an incentive to
conceal information to avoid higher risk-adjusted premiums,
leading to higher prices for all consumers and a shrinking
market
Potential annuity buyers also behave in ways are hard to
square with fully-informed and rational behavior, such as
overvaluing lump sums relative to their equivalent in
annuitized benefits and exhibiting loss aversion-in this
case, the tendency to dwell on the potential financial losses
associated with dying prematurely rather than the potential
gains from living a long life. Could tontines at least
counter these behavioral challenges? One psychological hurdle
for would-be annuity buyers is the fact that insurance
companies profit from annuitants' early death, which puts
people in a pessimistic and suspicious frame of mind.
Advocates say tontines could be structured so that only
investors-not issuers-would benefit from the deaths of others
in the pool, which might or might not alleviate these
concerns. (Tontine murders were once a common melodramatic
plot device in plays and murder mysteries)...
*
[A fairly thorough discussion of the pros and cons of
various investment and private insurance options for
retirement security are discussed concluded by the obvious
solution.]
*
...Unlike a tontine scheme, where payments simply increase
in inverse proportion to the share of surviving investors,
such longevity and return-smoothing adjustments are complex
and require trust in the system, so may be better suited to
government-sponsored plans than private sector ones. The
simplest solution, of course, is simply to expand Social
Security, an increasingly mainstream idea among Democrats but
not one that is likely to fly in the current Congress.
"The problem of outliving
one's savings has gotten worse as Social Security benefits
have been trimmed back and private sector employers have
replaced traditional pensions with 401(k)-style savings
plans."
Social Security benefits have been trimmed back? When did
this happen? (Are you referring to the changes made back in
1986, which gradually lengthened the full-benefit retirement
age to 67? It would have been helpful to say so.)
And it's not entirely accurate to say that 401(k)-style
retirement plans have worsened the problem of outliving one's
savings. For millions of retirees, the opposite has been
true; with the cooperation of the stock market (we're in the
second-longest bull market in 85 years), they're withdrawing
tens of thousands every year and seeing their total holdings
*increase* at the same time. Traditional defined-benefit
plans do provide greater security, but they're no match for
401(k)s, IRAs and other similar plans at actually increasing
in value.
This aspect of defined-contribution retirement plans
hasn't gotten nearly the exposure that the negative aspects
have. It's just as true though.
"we're in the second-longest bull market in 85 years"
Sure
... after the biggest crash in 80 years. And since when is
the length of time a bull market lasts, rather than long term
compound annual returns, the important metric?
You're attempt to describe the upside of retirement
savings in at-risk equity investments seems to be built on a
shaky and selective view of recent history.
Providing "rosy" headline number is the standard practice:
part of what is called the "cult of GDP". And then we see
impressive statistical masturbation of already unreliable
data.
As this metric is survey based 0.2% might well be
within the margin of error.
What is bad that a significant part of new jobs are
McJobs: "Over the month, hospitals (+9,000) and outpatient
care centers (+6,000) added jobs."
So this low level server sector jobs with max of $15 an
hour. Or parasitic jobs directed at inflating the cost of
health care ("billing" and "collection" ).
Also financial services added jobs as if there is not
enough tellers and insurance and credit cards salesmen (
+9K ). This is by-and-large a parasitic industry, so
adding jobs in it is counter-productive and is sign of
malady not a growth.
Retail declined $30K. That might be partially due
automation of cashier jobs.
Job search chances are on the same level as year ago or
worse:
"The number of people searching for work for 27 weeks
or more was little changed at 1.7 million. These long-term
unemployed accounted for 23.3 percent of the total
unemployed."
"the employment-population ratio, at 60.1 "
And the most important part:
== quote ==
In March, among those neither working nor looking for
work, 1.6 million were considered marginally attached to
the labor force, little different from a year earlier.
Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached
who believed that no jobs were available for them,
numbered 460,000 in March, down by 125,000 from a year
earlier.
(People who are marginally attached to the labor force
had not looked for work in the 4 weeks prior to the survey
but wanted a job, were available for work, and had looked
for a job within the last 12 months.)
'By shifting
profits overseas, economic output that should be counted in
the United States ends up being registered in other
countries.
This shifting appears to have happened in part due to the
rise in "intangible assets." To borrow an example from the
four economists, think of a simplified version of the profits
from an iPhone. Employees at Apple Inc. design the phone,
which is then produced abroad at a cost of $250 and sold to a
customer in the United States for $750. If we assume the
reason people buy iPhones is the branding and design created
by Apple, then a good portion of the $500 net profit is a
return on "intangible assets" produced in the United States.
But if a company sells the rights to these intangible assets
to a subsidiary in a low-tax country, then the profits will
end up there.
The result? An increase in the Gross Domestic Product of
the low-tax country and a decline in the GDP of the United
States without any real change in economic activity.'
Transfer pricing abuse! Of course that Ryan DBCFT tax
deform would allow this tax avoidance on a permanent basis in
a way that is all perfectly legal.
Reply
Tuesday,
pgl said in reply to Peter K....
"hey would still be taxed on their sales."
Seriously? Most
of Apple's sales are abroad. Same for Coca Cola, Boeing,
Caterpillar, the list goes on.
transfer pricing
manipulates the situation to show most of the profits as
being earned in the low tax country. So that lets say the
true cost of the manufacture of the iphone is 250 dollars,
they might say that the American subsidiary of the same
company went to the low tax country and paid 700 dollars for
the iphone
at least say that on paper
then they import it and sell it for 750 dollars here
so 450 dollars of the profit is taxed in the low tax
country
and 50 dollars of the profit is taxed in the US
that's what he is talking about
sales tax doesn't affect the tax on profit
besides, sales tax is paid over and above the 750 dollars
Reply
Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 11:00 AM
pgl said in reply to djb...
"pgl is talking about corporate tax on profit". Yep - you get
it.
By inducing Keynesian Stimulation from Keynesian
Expectations. Here is how works :
A car dealer has contract to buy from auto factory set
amount of cars each month. Contract allows factory to churn
out Tesla-s at steady rate thus efficient clip.
Unlike his customers, savvy dealer watches deflation rate
carefully. He holds onto inventory when he expects less or no
future deflation, but when he expects greater deflation, he
deftly dumps inventory before price drops, accelerates M2V.
Deflation causes dealers of each product and service to
stimulate economic expansion. Here is my impression of Tyler
Cohen :
When a government hardens its currency most of that
currency is held by the citizens serving that government.
Each citizen then has more buying power, more wealth because
of her/his shrewd rulers.
As deflation allows full reserve, full reserve makes the
predictions of Nouriel Roubini irrelevant. Full reserve
eliminates uncertainty that nauseates business ventures that
hire folks.
Awareness!
By
spending less, but taxing more, taxing foreigners by way of
import duties. Is that what communist rulers of China are now
doing? Import tariff? To harden currency thus enrage 45th
President?
Don't worry nothing!
Don't worry!
Be happy!
45th will soon become aware. First aware; then, "company,
attenzione!
forward march
!!
"
Reply
Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 11:38 AM
point said in reply to pgl...
It's a terrific article, especially showing aggregate debt
exceeds aggregate assets through use of tax havens.
On calculating GDP, it sure seems the standard labor
arbitrage maneuver of transferring the production of
intermediate goods to a favorable labor rate jurisdiction for
importation should have implications beyond transfer pricing
abuse.
If I, a US citizen, own a US located factory producing
product with entirely US located inputs, then transfer an
intermediate production stage to a low wage rate
jurisdiction, where I still own the entire chain, this seems
insufficiently foreign to account as exporting and importing.
People sometimes create "look through" earnings to
consolidate unconsolidated results of minority subsidiaries
to get a better look at a parent's full results. Something
similar could be worthwhile here where a company's
"insufficiently foreign" production would be consolidated
into a look-through US production number.
Reply
Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 06:20 AM
pgl said in reply to point...
It is an interesting paper. Glad you read it. I see that
PeterK did not.
Reply
Tuesday, April 11, 2017 at 07:48 AM
The Chinese do not believe in this stuff, they have read Leviticus though, and plainly understand
that they can create credit and erase it anytime they want to do so.
There was an article somwhere here today or yesterday that made points about how the Chinese
'manipulate' affecting the Triffin calculus and domestic pricing trends influencing consumption
in order to make a steady growth and transformation of their economic system from where it was
in 1980, for a billion plus people. I wish them success.
If you are an economist who believes that the nongovt financial system is basically the only
functionary that there should be for the handling the creation of credit in society, you are a
shill, not a thoughtful analyst. I doubt you can think outside your blinders.
...Specifically, the Triffin dilemma is usually cited to articulate the problems with the role
of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency under the Bretton Woods system. John Maynard Keynes
had anticipated this difficulty and had advocated the use of a global reserve currency called
'Bancor'. Currently the IMF's SDRs are the closest thing to the proposed Bancor but they have
not been adopted widely enough to replace the dollar as the global reserve currency.
In the wake of the financial crisis of 2007–2008, the governor of the People's Bank of China
(YES - CHINA) explicitly named the reserve currency status of the US dollar as a contributing
factor to global savings and investment imbalances that led to the crisis. As such the Triffin
Dilemma is related to the Global Savings Glut hypothesis because the dollar's reserve currency
role exacerbates the U.S. current account deficit due to heightened demand for dollars...
...
Implication in 2008 meltdown
In the wake of the financial crisis of 2007–2008, the governor of the People's Bank of China
explicitly named the Triffin Dilemma as the root cause of the economic disorder, in a speech titled
Reform the International Monetary System. Zhou Xiaochuan's speech of 29 March 2009 proposed strengthening
existing global currency controls, through the IMF.[1][2]
This would involve a gradual move away from the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency and towards
the use of IMF special drawing rights (SDRs) as a global reserve currency.
Zhou argued that part of the reason for the original Bretton Woods system breaking down was
the refusal to adopt Keynes' bancor which would have been a special international reserve currency
to be used instead of the dollar...
Thanks for sharing. I think the speech was intended to message about the US being part of the
problem not to give credit to Triffin. But of course I dont know.
I simply want people to put on different thinking caps, so to speak.
Something like that sure enough, but a bit more formalized in the area of exchange rates and maybe
capital controls as well. In any case a pipe dream in my lifetime. What we are attempting to get
that old teaming masses of uneducated voting majority to realize first is that they have been
duped. There are tons of alternatives, too many almost. Sovereigns make their own currencies for
the most part, tax if they will, and regulate. There are a great many ways to play the game. The
idea that industrial policy and capital controls violate some pre-ordained laws of economics is
rubbish. OTOH, no nation is free of the external consequences of their economic and currency policies
if they must depend upon exchange for any of their necessities.
Review of the economics troops
Comment on Noah Smith on 'Keynesian Economics Is Hot Again'
There is Orthodoxy with Walrasian microfoundations and it has been nicely defined by Krugman:
" most of what I and many others do is sorta-kinda neoclassical because it takes the maximization-and-equilibrium
world as a starting point."
There is Keynesianism with macrofoundations and they have been nicely defined by Keynes: "Income
= value of output = consumption + investment. Saving = income - consumption. Therefore saving
= investment."
Both, Walrasian microfoundations and Keynesian macrofoundations are provable false. Methodologically
speaking, micro and macro is axiomatically false. It holds, when the premises/axioms/foundational
propositions are false or contain nonentities the WHOLE theory/model/analytical superstructure
is false. This includes ALL variants of IS-LM from Hicks to Krugman.#1
The four main approaches ― Walrasianism, Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism ― are mutually
contradictory, axiomatically false, materially/formally inconsistent and all got the pivotal economic
concept profit wrong. Because economists lack the true theory their economic policy guidance has
NO sound scientific foundation since Adam Smith/Karl Marx.
There is NO use to combine axiomatically false approaches or to periodically alternate between
them. What Krugman or Christiano are doing is cargo cultic show biz.
Noah Smith maintains: "The right way forward for macro isn't to go all-in on a hot new theory,
or to passionately embrace old paradigms either. The best approach is to adopt more public humility
and caution about their theories, while working to understand microeconomics better."
In view of the fact that the profit theory is false since 200+ years, microfoundations are
false since 140+ years, and macrofoundations are false since 80+ years, the right way forward
for Walrasians and Keynesians is to retire.
Keynesian Economics Is Hot Again
By Noah Smith - Bloomberg
To the growing list of famous mainstream macroeconomists who have publicly criticized their
discipline, add another: In a recent essay, * Lawrence Christiano of Northwestern University argues
that the Great Recession was an "earthquake" that dramatically changed how researchers think about
the U.S. economy.
Christiano is known as a scholar who straddles macroeconomics' great divide. His models adopt
the basic form and some of the bedrock assumptions of the New Classicals, the economists who insisted
in the 1980s that monetary and fiscal policy can't fight recessions. But he also incorporates
some elements of Keynesianism, the idea that aggregate demand shortages exist and can be corrected
by the government stimulus. Perhaps as a result of their centrist take on that long-running debate,
theories inspired by Christiano's have won pride of place in central banks around the world.
But after the Great Recession, Christiano says, the pendulum should swing decisively in the
Keynesian direction:
"The Great Recession was the response of the economy to a negative shock to the demand for
goods all across the board. This is very much in the spirit of the traditional macroeconomic paradigm
captured by the [simple Keynesian] model The Great Recession seems impossible to understand without
invoking shocks in aggregate demand. As a consequence, the modern equivalent of the IS-LM model-the
New Keynesian model-has returned to center stage."
Another way of putting this is that Paul Krugman was right. Krugman has long advocated that
macroeconomists learn to once again think in terms of simple simple Keynesian theory. And when
more fully developed, complex models are needed, Krugman uses the kind of models that Christiano
endorses.
As Christiano mentioned, the New Keynesian revolution isn't so new. Even in the 1990s, economists
like Greg Mankiw and Olivier Blanchard were arguing that monetary policy had real effects on demand.
And at the same time, international macroeconomists were realizing that Japan's post-bubble experience
of slow growth, low interest rates and low inflation implied that demand shortages could last
for a very long time unless the government rode to the rescue. Krugman, Adam Posen, Lars Svensson,
and others were already referring to a Japan-type stagnation as a liquidity trap in the late 1990s,
and warning that standard monetary policy of cutting interest rates wouldn't work in that sort
of situation.
But the profession didn't listen, and only the smallest deviations from the New Classical orthodoxy
were accepted into the mainstream. The idea of fiscal stimulus was still largely taboo. Nobel
prizes were awarded to the economists who made theories in which demand shortages can't exist,
while no Nobels were given to New Keynesians for suggesting otherwise. When the Great Recession
hit, some prominent macroeconomists pooh-poohed the idea that stimulus could help.
Christiano's essay should serve as a needed rebuke to the profession for resisting Keynesian
ideas just when they were needed most. But it also raises an uncomfortable question: Why didn't
macroeconomists catch on until years after disaster struck?
One explanation is sociological. Perhaps the influence of legendary figures like Robert Lucas,
Thomas Sargent and Edward Prescott -- all anti-Keynesians who now have big gold medals from Sweden
-- was enough to scare younger economists away Keynesian ideas. Some of macroeconomics' internal
critics, such as World Bank chief economist Paul Romer, have suggested as much. Political considerations
might have played a role as well -- to many economists on the free-market end of the ideological
spectrum, Keynesianism represents unacceptable government meddling.
But these explanations, by themselves, are unsatisfying. In most scientific fields -- biology
or astronomy, for example -- the weight of evidence is enough to overcome social fads and political
bias. Even in most areas of economics, empirical results gradually push the profession in one
direction or another. For example, relatively few economists now believe a $15 minimum wage is
likely to reduce employment very much; a plurality is uncertain. The steady drumbeat of papers
showing small or zero job losses from minimum-wage hikes probably played a role in altering the
expert consensus.
If economists gravitated toward anti-Keynesian theories, it was at least in part because evidence
wasn't strong enough to push them in the right direction. It's just very hard to assess the impacts
of fiscal stimulus. For example, Japan's tremendous government spending binge in the 1990s looks
to a casual observer like it had no effect, since the economy didn't recover until years later
-- but government spending might have been the only thing saving the country from a deeper recession.
For a great explanation of why macroeconomic evidence is so weak and subject to multiple interpretations,
read this excellent post ** by the University of Oregon's Mark Thoma....
Both mainstream US parties are war
parties, it requires huge lying, faulty logic and misplaced
faux morality to justify state sanctioned, industrial scale
murder.
'If you took the money out of war there would be less of
it.'
Obama doctrine is wrong there have been no instances of
'unjust peace' since Cain killed Abel.
...But Larry is surprisingly blasé about a China problem:
excess savings (really, an East Asia problem, as Brad Setser
points out). I associate this problem with Summers' own work
on "secular stagnation"-persistent demand shortfalls even in
recovery. Another way to view sec stag is as a function of
excess savings: the globe is awash in more savings that we
have good, productive uses for. That, in turn, can lead to
depressed interest rates, credit bubbles, large trade
surpluses in savings glut countries, which in turn force
large trade deficits elsewhere, and high unemployment,
depending on what offsets are in play in trade deficit
countries. Larry himself has recognized this problem (as has
Ben Bernanke since the mid-2000s in his seminal savings glut
speech) and wisely called for public infrastructure
investment to help offset it.
Our trade deficit with China is 1.6 percent of GDP; that's
a significant drag on demand. In terms of offsets, the Fed is
pushing in the other direction (tightening) and the fiscal
authorities um Congress can't find the light switch. We're of
course doing better than most other advanced economies, but
here we are in year eight of an expansion and (slight) output
gaps still persist...
To Jared Bernstein - Bernanke's savings glut theory is a
classic exercise in
1) theory that is NOT backed up by
data. just because there is a persistent deficit vs China in
the US does not mean they are consuming less. we could be
consuming too much. (was there a savings glut vs. Japan
before East Asia and Europe before then?) The US has run
deficits since the Vietnam era. Surpluses do not prove
anything just like deficits dont prove US is overconsuming.
2) shifting blame to someone else. which is what Jared is
doing here and Bernanke was doing when he came up with this
bs.
3) If you look at China, gross investment rates at 50% of
GDP rates have left the country with debt levels that are
astronomical. A lot of people say a debt crisis is coming. If
you look at the reality on the ground, it is excess
investment. what demand shortfall?
Am I supposed to take the mutterings of these clueless
academics like Bernanke who blew 2 bubbles and blew up the
economy in 2007-08?
Give me some evidence, or give me a break from these
fanciful notions of a savings glut.
Providing "rosy" headline number is the standard practice:
part of what is called the "cult of GDP". And then we see
impressive statistical masturbation of already unreliable
data.
As this metric is survey based 0.2% might well be
within the margin of error.
What is bad that a significant part of new jobs are
McJobs: "Over the month, hospitals (+9,000) and outpatient
care centers (+6,000) added jobs."
So this low level server sector jobs with max of $15 an
hour. Or parasitic jobs directed at inflating the cost of
health care ("billing" and "collection" ).
Also financial services added jobs as if there is not
enough tellers and insurance and credit cards salesmen (
+9K ). This is by-and-large a parasitic industry, so
adding jobs in it is counter-productive and is sign of
malady not a growth.
Retail declined $30K. That might be partially due
automation of cashier jobs.
Job search chances are on the same level as year ago or
worse:
"The number of people searching for work for 27 weeks
or more was little changed at 1.7 million. These long-term
unemployed accounted for 23.3 percent of the total
unemployed."
"the employment-population ratio, at 60.1 "
And the most important part:
== quote ==
In March, among those neither working nor looking for
work, 1.6 million were considered marginally attached to
the labor force, little different from a year earlier.
Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached
who believed that no jobs were available for them,
numbered 460,000 in March, down by 125,000 from a year
earlier.
(People who are marginally attached to the labor force
had not looked for work in the 4 weeks prior to the survey
but wanted a job, were available for work, and had looked
for a job within the last 12 months.)
"But the liberal Democrat, who was one of then-Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders' few supporters in Congress last
year, explained she wanted to engage in dialogue with Assad."
If you support peace, you work for Russia. McCarthyism.
McCarthyism is indeed a bad thing, but the only ones I see complaining about it recently are useful idiots, and useful idiocy
is also a bad thing.
So I'm left only to despair at the state of political thought in the United States today.
"McCarthyism is indeed a bad thing, but the only ones I see complaining about it recently are useful idiots, and useful idiocy
is also a bad thing."
Nothing is worse then being McCarthyist. Nothing. That's the bottom: they are real intellectual bottom feeders. Think about
this.
Even being useless "neoliberal idiot", essentially a shill of financial oligarchy, the role that you played before in this
forum, is much, much better.
And please stop treating ilsm as if he is subpar to you just because you are "politically correct".
Please understand that your post pretty well attest that you are just a typical narrow-minded, provincial neocon chichenhawk.
Brainwashed by propaganda to the extent that you lost any ability to think independently and skeptically. Capable only regurgitating
CNN.
You should to go in to that area in north Syria where the chemical attack/false flag was staged, ask for hard evidence and see
how long you live.
The propaganda is "Assad is a brute", jihadi shell loyal sections of Syria every day but no one run pictures of those casualties,
just like none from Sanaa or Gaza.
The guys who were going to replace Qaddafi? Where are the liberals?
Sure, because inability to investigate a war zone without danger indicates it all MUST be false flag operations. That's very logical
... for me to poop on.
Looks like in addition to having zero knowledge of physics, you have zero knowledge of chemistry. Congratulations. Looks like
you might seek the job as MSM political commentator.
But now a little bit chemistry:
== quote ==
Sarin, or GB (G-series, 'B'), is a colorless, odorless liquid,[5] used as a chemical weapon due to its extreme potency as a nerve
agent.
... ... ...
People who absorb a non-lethal dose, but do not receive immediate medical treatment, may suffer permanent neurological damage.
== end of quote ==
Syrian revels were already producing sarin in 2013 and injured several US solders with it in Iraq (using artillery shell delivery
system).
This is a really diabolic substance which is probably 10 to 100 times more dangerous then cyanide. Poor man weapon of mass
destruction, if you wish. BTW that's why Assad had have it -- to counterbalance Israeli nuclear weapons as such bombs/rockets
would wipe out country population. Not so much because he was such an evil dictator who enjoys collecting dangerous staff.
Lethal concentration is so low that if a person touches the victim with bare hands he/she essentially touches dispersed cyanide
power. And has reasonably high chances to absorb a non-lethal doze to be injured for life, if this was a military grade sarin.
This was not the case. And that raises a very important question: what if this was not a military grade sarin. And the most
plausible answer is: no it was not. Oops...
What was is the most plausible source of not military grade sarin with primitive systems of delivery (artillery shells). Right.
Rebels. Such product is an amateur product typical for rebel's underground labs. So if you shell the territory that is bombed
by Assad forces with your shell with sarin warhead you get what? Right. A very potent false flag with no witnesses and difficulties
to find the truth.
If one compare how Japanese dealt with sarin attack in the subway with the way first responders in Syria treated victims the
hypothesis that it was military grade chemical weapon promoted by the MSM instantly becomes much less convincing and their level
of indignation start looking somewhat phony.
Some even suggest that this was phosgene -- a much easier synthesized (phosgene can be produced by passing purified carbon
monoxide and chlorine gas through a bed of porous activated carbon, which serves as a catalyst -- undertaking simple enough for
any rebel group) or it was sarin, but in "amateur concentration" with simplistic warhead: less lethal then "military grade" with
sophisticated dispersion via bomblets
Again sarin is a really diabolical substance even in comparison with phosgene -- that is very important to understand.
"Phosgene is the chemical compound with the formula COCl2. This colorless gas gained infamy as a chemical weapon during World
War I where it was responsible for about 85% of the 100,000 deaths caused by chemical weapons. It is also a valued industrial
reagent and building block in synthesis of pharmaceuticals and other organic compounds. In low concentrations, its odor resembles
freshly cut hay or grass"
After some research, this incident to me looks more and more like a successful repetition of previous false flag operation
conducted in the same province in 2013 with the same explicit goal: to implicate Assad and provoke the USA for invasion of the
country with the goal of regime change.
With the same players and the same suspiciously hysterical reaction of neocon dominated MSM -- the reaction which occurred
before any investigation.
Which means this is a propaganda campaign, not a natural reaction for the tragedy.
And Trump reaction in the best cowboy style increased my suspicions even more: that means that he folded: "Russian links" neo-McCarthyism
smear got him (it is incorrectly to call it McCarthysim as "classic" ten year campaign was about communists as a political movement,
not only about a particular country -- the USSR ).
Now anti-war right is typically blamed with anti-Semitism, which is less potent weapon. Anti-Russian smear was the invention
of Hillary Clinton campaign staff.
And "last but not least." Nikki Haley is a pretty clever, fast learning politician, so when she imitates Colin Powell in the
UN (suicidal, career limiting move), condemning Assad, Russia and Iran before any investigation of chemical attack in Syria (
'They defied the conscience of the world' ) additional questions arise about the USA motives and the level of cooperation with
the al Nusra rebels on the level of government agencies.
She got "all in" without any second thought. Politicians don't do that unless forced or convinced that this is "slam dunk".
To me her behavior was a real red flag -- the smell of Iraqi WDMs -- the smell of government operation -- the signal that something
is really fishy here: after listening to her I assumed "false attack" as the primary hypothesis.
Because of cuo bono principle.
And started looking at those sites which the provide alternative hypothesis and information, mainly British. I now wonder if
all victims were locals, or some of them were hostages, "human shields" and did people died exactly from air attack and subsequent
release of chemicals ("Russian hypotheses") or the area was shelled in parallel with the air attack with shells that carry chemical
warheads.
Another unanswered but troubling question: Why such a disproportional number of children ? Was this staged to increase the
level of anger against Assad government (which worked) ?
But I am a skeptic by nature, so your mileage may vary.
My impression is that CNN is good enough for your intellectual level, so you can continue in your typical, already well learned,
standard brainwashed way. I do not see any desire to dig in the substance in your political-related posts. You just regurgitate
CNN and happy about it.
Which has a definite advantage of being always "politically correct".
And what is important is that you seems to enjoy this position so much that you just can't stop from reminding me about this
your advantage on each and every occasion, especially if you have no valid arguments ;-).
Five major US newspapers-the New York Times, Washington Post,
USA Today, Wall Street Journal and New York Daily
News-offered no opinion space to anyone opposed to Donald
Trump's Thursday night airstrikes.
By contrast, the five papers ran a total of 18 op-eds,
columns or "news analysis" articles (dressed-up opinion
pieces) that either praised the strikes or criticized them
for not being harsh enough:
A pair of veteran leaders on the left, former Democratic
National Committee Chairman Howard Dean and Center for
American Progress President Neera Tanden, called on Hawaiians
to vote Rep. Tulsi Gabbard out of office after the Democrat
questioned whether Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was
responsible for last week's chemical attack.
"A pair of veteran leaders on the left, former Democratic
National Committee Chairman Howard Dean and Center for
American Progress President Neera Tanden, called on Hawaiians
to vote Rep. Tulsi Gabbard out of office after the Democrat
questioned whether Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was
responsible for last week's chemical attack."
[
Astonishing, Neera Tanden and Howard Dean are wildly
intolerant of dissent by Democrats from the dictates of the
Clintons but I would not have imagined they were this
intolerant. Tulsi Gabbard is an elected official of
conscience, but evidently conscience is intolerable for the
likes of Tanden and Dean.
The point I suppose is for "leading" Democrats to clear
the party of those who are not suitably dogma intimidated. ]
The US should have supported a through UN investigation
and international law in regard to the gas attacks in Syria.
3:39 PM - 7 Apr 2017
[ Such a statement strikes me as completely reasonable,
and for any prominent Democrat to find the statement
intolerable is to me lacking in tolerance and judiciousness.
Then again, the implied or lightly veiled criticism of
President Obama for failing to intervene forcefully enough in
Syria has startled me. ]
"The new ANES data only confirms what a plethora of studies
have told us since the start of the presidential campaign:
the race was about race. Klinkner himself grabbed headlines
last summer when he revealed that the best way to identify a
Trump supporter in the U.S. was to ask "just one simple
question: is Barack Obama a Muslim?" Because, he said, "if
they are white and the answer is yes, 89 percent of the time
that person will have a higher opinion of Trump than
Clinton." This is economic anxiety? Really?"
But wouldn't you guess that those same 89% of Trump voters
that say Obama is a Muslim would have also voted for almost
any Republican candidate (for any and every office, not just
POTUS) and would certainly never vote for any Democratic
candidate under any circumstances for any office whatsoever?
The margin of voters between Democratic and Republican
candidates in most (but not nearly all thanks to gerrymanders
and deep red states) elections is smaller than the remaining
11%. What percentage of Fox News regular viewers think that
Obama is a Muslim? Are there any deep blue states remaining?
why was democratic turnout so low with a randian troll as the
GOP nominee? Could it be that neglecting the marginalized by
kissing up to butthurt white people is not a winning
strategy...
Bernie Sanders's economic policies were not "kissing up to
butthurt white people."
Leftwing economic policies help
white and black and brown working people. Everyone. It's
weird for you to troll this way when you say that Sanders and
Warren are centrist sellouts.
You, JohnH and BINY are the most confused people here.
From the 1940s through the 1980s as the middle class grew,
we saw successful popular movements like the civil rights
movements, feminism, gay rights, peace movements,
environmental movements etc.
The legacies of those movements continue to this day as we
saw a black man elected President and re-elected despite the
racism of voters. We see gay marriage legalized and marijuana
legalized.
you can "loony left" me all you want sanjait, but my
guess is that the democratic party will have to choose
between working with the left or being undermined by it.
The Klinkner anecdote is meaningless.
This does not say that 89% of Trump voters believe Obama is a
Muslim; it says that 89% of (white) people who believe this
are Trump voters.
The article as a whole supports a point
that EMichael has been making here for months.
Had we run this operation
with no tip off to the Russians, all of those planes would
have been destroyed. That would be a smart military move.
Trump cannot pull off even the obvious.
As Krugman points out, taking out 65 "deadly" planes is
nothing. It would change nothing.
Doesn't change anything.
Trump has no long-term strategy. All of Obama's ex-advisers
cheered the bombing. Obama pushed back against the "deep
state" foreign policy establishment. Hillary would have
embraced it, probably leading to more war.
In my view - we should not have done this at all. But if one
is going to do a hawkish act, one should not be so incredibly
incompetent. That is what I said from the first moment. But
do misrepresent what I said. It is what you do 24/7.
What did this missile attack really accomplish? Krugman's
point is simple. Nothing in terms of the situation in Syria.
A reckless and incompetent reaction to an awful Sarin gas
attack. But Trump looked tough and his poll numbers will get
a boost. So it was all for political purposes at the end of
the day.
Not a smart way to run foreign policy. Unless one
is a jingoist.
But PGL is mad that the U.S. military gave the Russians a
heads up. Allowed the Syrian janitor to avoid being bombed.
His wife and children probably are grateful.
Would it
matter if the airport had been completely destroyed including
the janitor? Not at all.
That's what PGL doesn't get.
Bill Clinton did this sort of thing during the Lewinsky
scandal, bombing Iraq off an on again, accomplishing nothing
but distracting attention.
His sanctions however killed hundreds of thousands of
Iraqi children and wrecked Iraq. Albright said it was worth
it.
Now Iraq is an awesome country of sweetness and light,
kind of like Germany and Japan after World War II.
Krugman, who according to his critics should never comment on anything outside of economics, makes
two apt points here about the politics.
Trump gets points for "honesty" not because he's honest, but because he gives voice to the
deplorable instincts of many (which apparently includes a majority of Republican voters). They
like that he expresses the ugly things they are afraid to say themselves.
Also, while Trump is indeed incompetent, his failure to implement policy could instead be attributed
to underlying lack of plausibility behind the GOPs talking points. Their goals are not getting
accomplished because there are fundamental structural flaws underlying them. I'm not sure I agree
with Krugs entirely on this ... but it's an interesting supposition.
I understand that you have zero physics knowledge. You do not need to repeat that.
And my opinion certainly is more credible on issues such as Russia because I can compare views
of two sides of this conflict (remember Latin dictum "Audi alteram partem" ) and you do not and
do not want to do this.
All you do by attacking ilsm, who BTW, unlike you, served his country, is to demonstrate the
level of your indoctrination into jingoism and militarism. Which is impressive, but not so interesting,
other then for study of groupthink.
The only thing you can do on issues of foreigh policy is to regurgitate uncritically the propaganda
taken from CNN. Which actually makes you yet another neoliberal twerp in this forum.
I actually do not even remember when the last time I thought of your posts on issues of foreign
policy as anything worse noting .
At least I studied Russian history and the language.
While your ignorance and jingoism make you a laughing stock for those people who are not indoctrinated
into American exceptionalism.
PALM BEACH, Fla. - The United States is vowing to keep up
the pressure on Syria after the intense nighttime wave of
missile strikes from U.S. ships, despite the prospect of
escalating Russian ill will that could further inflame one of
the world's most vexing conflicts.
Standing firm, the Trump administration on Friday signaled
new sanctions would soon follow the missile attack, and the
Pentagon was even probing whether Russia itself was involved
in the chemical weapons assault that compelled President
Donald Trump to action. The attack against a Syrian air base
was the first U.S. assault against the government of
President Bashar Assad.
Much of the international community rallied behind Trump's
decision to fire the cruise missiles in reaction to this
week's chemical weapons attack that killed dozens of men,
women and children in Syria. But a spokesman for Russian
President Vladimir Putin warned that the strikes dealt ''a
significant blow'' to relations between Moscow and
Washington.
A key test of whether the relationship can be salvaged
comes next week when Secretary of State Rex Tillerson becomes
the first Trump Cabinet member to visit Russia.
British Foreign Minister Boris Johnson also had planned to
visit Russia this coming week, but decided Saturday to cancel
the trip because of the fast moving events in Syria. Johnson,
who condemned Moscow's continued defense of Assad, said
Tillerson will be able to give a ''clear and coordinated
message to the Russians.''
At the United Nations on Friday, Russia's deputy ambassador,
Vladimir Safronkov, strongly criticized what he called the
U.S. ''flagrant violation of international law and an act of
aggression'' whose ''consequences for regional and
international security could be extremely serious.'' He
called the Assad government a main force against terrorism
and said it deserved the presumption of innocence in the
chemical weapons attack.
The U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Nikki Haley, said the
world is waiting for the Russian government ''to act
responsibly in Syria'' and ''to reconsider its misplaced
alliance with Bashar Assad.'' ...
"The U.S. ambassador to the U.N., Nikki Haley, said the world
is waiting for the Russian government ''to act responsibly in
Syria'' and ''to reconsider its misplaced alliance with
Bashar Assad.'' ..."
Summary: "This is Colin Powell's justification for Iraq
war all over again"
In two years or so most of the evidence will probably be
discredited. But what is done is done. Shoot first and ask
questions later is the most noble tradition in the USA
foreign policy.
The USA now gave rebels and their allies such as Turkey
and KSA a huge incentive to fake another chemical attack in
order to bring the US ground troops into Syria.
Syria will then be left to the warring Islamist factions
to fight it out just like in Libya and Iraq."
His paper provided a means for separating increases in the deficit into the part that represents
fiscal stimulus to offset a recession v. the part caused by the recession. His point was simply
the extent of fiscal stimulus during the Great Depression was a lot less than the rise in the
actual deficit.
Pinkybum earlier wrote:
"Debt as a percentage of GDP has doubled since 2009 so that has provided some relief."
Yes – we did have some stimulus in 2009 but not as much as reflected by the size of the deficit.
But let's not pick on him but cite something Max Sawicky wrote (in an otherwise great piece):
"Now here we are, in 2017, after the Obama Administration has brought the deficit down from $1.5
trillion in Fiscal Year 2009 to $621 billion in FY2016"
Max is rightfully complaining about the 2011 shift to fiscal austerity. But he is very aware
of Brown's paper and its logic. Some of this decline in the deficit came from an economy that
had actually grown somewhat.
Fiscal stimulus (austerity) is not well captured by simply looking at the rise (fall) in the
deficit. Brown's paper was written 62 years ago. Some folks need to finally read it.
My point wasn't to say that the debt increased therefore everything was OK. You also can't just
look at the nominal deficit and know what is going on. Back in Obama's first term unemployment
was sky high and that is the reason we needed to run deficits. How high should the deficits be?
Enough to employ all the people who want to be employed and that is true regardless of whether
there is a recession.
Why do we need to run deficits to keep people employed? The answer must lie in the distribution
of earnings which go to rich who have a lower propensity to spend and therefore the economy activity
is too low to support full employment.
That's my two cents now I will go and read the paper.
"... The study, conducted using records of patients referred to the Mayo Clinic's General Internal Medicine Division over a two-year period, ultimately found that when consulting a second opinion, the physician only confirmed the original diagnosis 12 percent of the time. ..."
"... Among those with updated diagnoses, 66% received a refined or redefined diagnosis, while 21% were diagnosed with something completely different than what their first physician concluded. ..."
"... The researchers acknowledged that receiving a completely different diagnosis could result in a patient facing otherwise unexpected expenditures, "but the alternative could be deadly." ..."
"Second Opinion From Doctor Nets Different Diagnosis 88% Of Time, Study Finds"
by Daniel Steingold...4.8.2017
"ROCHESTER, Minn. - When it comes to treating a serious illness, two brains are better than
one. A new study finds that nearly 9 in 10 people who go for a second opinion after seeing a doctor
are likely to leave with a refined or new diagnosis from what they were first told.
Researchers at the Mayo Clinic examined 286 patient records of individuals who had decided
to consult a second opinion, hoping to determine whether being referred to a second specialist
impacted one's likelihood of receiving an accurate diagnosis.
The study, conducted using records of patients referred to the Mayo Clinic's General Internal
Medicine Division over a two-year period, ultimately found that when consulting a second opinion,
the physician only confirmed the original diagnosis 12 percent of the time.
Among those with updated diagnoses, 66% received a refined or redefined diagnosis, while 21%
were diagnosed with something completely different than what their first physician concluded.
"Effective and efficient treatment depends on the right diagnosis," says lead researcher Dr.
James Naessens in a Mayo news release. "Knowing that more than 1 out of every 5 referral patients
may be completely [and] incorrectly diagnosed is troubling ─ not only because of the safety risks
for these patients prior to correct diagnosis, but also because of the patients we assume are
not being referred at all."
Considering how health insurance companies often limit the ability of patients to visit multiple
specialists, this figure could be seen as troubling.
Combine this with the fact that primary care physicians are often overly-confident in their
diagnoses, not to mention how a high number of patients feel amiss about questioning their diagnoses,
a massive issue is revealed.
"Referrals to advanced specialty care for undifferentiated problems are an essential component
of patient care," says Naessens. "Without adequate resources to handle undifferentiated diagnoses,
a potential unintended consequence is misdiagnosis, resulting in treatment delays and complications,
and leading to more costly treatments."
The researchers acknowledged that receiving a completely different diagnosis could result in
a patient facing otherwise unexpected expenditures, "but the alternative could be deadly."
According to the release, The National Academy of Medicine cites diagnostic error as an important
component in determining the quality of health care in its new publication, Improving Diagnosis
in Health Care:
....."Despite the pervasiveness of diagnostic errors and the risk for serious patient harm,
diagnostic errors have been largely unappreciated within the quality and patient safety movements
in health care. Without a dedicated focus on improving diagnosis, these errors will likely worsen
as the delivery of health care and the diagnostic process continue to increase in complexity."
* The study was published in the Journal of Evaluation in Clinical Practice.
"What really matters
in all of this is how
many dollars you are
scraping from poor,
middle class, and rich
people. Consumption
taxes scrape more
dollars from people
who consume more and
it is the rich who
consume more.
According to the 2015
Consumer Expenditure
Survey, the richest
income quintile
consumes an average of
$110,424 while the
poorest income
quintile consumes an
average of just
$24,355. A 10 percent
consumption tax would
thus draw $2,435 from
the poorest quintile
and $11,042 from the
richest quintile.
Which is to say that
such a tax draws 4.5
times as much money
from the rich as the
poor."
This is an
incredibly bad metric.
If the rich have
incomes that an 10
times more than the
poor, then this
statistic shows how
regressive the tax is
- not how progressive
it is.
Peter using the
numbers from the 2015
CES cited by Bruenig,
and his prototypical
10% flat consumption
tax, the average
person in the top
quintile would pay
roughly $11,042, or
roughly 6.2% of their
pre-tax income, while
the average person in
the bottom quintile
would pay $2,435, or
roughly 22.3% of their
pre-tax income.
Presumably that person
in the bottom quintile
is also the recipient
of substantial
non-cash income,
enabling them to
consume more than
their earnings.
Nonetheless, anyway
you slice it, a flat
consumption tax as in
Bruenig's overly
simplistic example
seems to be obviously
very regressive.
May be if you refund them up to a certain income for
household (so that low income folk are exempt) and introduce
Veblen goods tax they are not that bad.
"This perversion isn't Arrow's fault. He merely helped to prove a mathematical theorem, and was
no blind advocate for markets. Indeed, he actually thought the theorem illustrated the limitations
of capitalism"
This quote illustrates that there is some difference between neoliberalism and neo-classical
economics. Neoliberals do not care about applicability of neo-classical economics or the validity
of generalized stochastic equilibrium.
They used neo-classical theories as a ram to destroy New Deal Capitalism and paid "useful idiots"
outsized amount of money to keep them in power in economics departments.
There is a well known historical narrative which supports your assertion surrounding Austrian
economics and the University of Chicago although as you suggest it goes much deeper than that.
In my view neoliberals are like republicans, in that they make no secret of their allegiances.
I see neoclassicals as even more despicable, because they pretend to be Keynesians and in favor
of the working class, while promoting "free market" solutions.
Neoliberals come right up and punch you in the face. Neoclassicals slink around and stab you
in the back.
In my last post, I said that it would be good if the US
imposed a consumption tax such as the value-added tax (VAT).
Critics generally say that these kinds of taxes are bad
because they are "regressive." While it is true that they are
regressive under the way that word is generally used, that
entire way of thinking about taxes is confused and muddled
(as I've discussed previously in the case of the Nordics).
The standard response to those who raise the regressivity
objection is to say that it just depends on how the proceeds
of the consumption tax are spent. This is true, but only
because it is true of all taxes. Even progressive taxes are
only good if the proceeds are spent well. You could spend
them on bad things and even in ways that make inequality
worse.
The bigger problem with the regressivity objection, in my
view, is that dividing taxes paid by income seems to obscure
the more important point. What really matters in all of this
is how many dollars you are scraping from poor, middle class,
and rich people. Consumption taxes scrape more dollars from
people who consume more and it is the rich who consume more.
According to the 2015 Consumer Expenditure Survey, the
richest income quintile consumes an average of $110,424 while
the poorest income quintile consumes an average of just
$24,355.
A 10 percent consumption tax would thus draw $2,435 from
the poorest quintile and $11,042 from the richest quintile.
Which is to say that such a tax draws 4.5 times as much money
from the rich as the poor.
Whether the money drawn from the consumption tax
ultimately reduces inequality does depend on how it is spent,
but it is not like it needs to be spent in an especially
"progressive" way, i.e. in a way that is heavily targeted
towards the poor. Even if you spent this money in a way that
benefited all quintiles equally, you'd still see a pretty
significant net swing.
Of course, this graph features a rather simplistic
analysis as it assumes consumption does not change at all in
response to the tax and benefit reforms. But even if the
precise figures would be somewhat different in a real life
implementation, the basic pattern of the graph above would
still hold.
None of this is to say that a consumption tax is better
than other taxes. The US has plenty of room to increase its
tax level by upping income taxes, and so that's a natural
place to look. But to say consumption taxes are bad generally
is pretty clearly mistaken.
"What really matters in all of this is how many dollars you
are scraping from poor, middle class, and rich people.
Consumption taxes scrape more dollars from people who consume
more and it is the rich who consume more.
According to the 2015 Consumer Expenditure Survey, the
richest income quintile consumes an average of $110,424 while
the poorest income quintile consumes an average of just
$24,355. A 10 percent consumption tax would thus draw $2,435
from the poorest quintile and $11,042 from the richest
quintile. Which is to say that such a tax draws 4.5 times as
much money from the rich as the poor."
This is an
incredibly bad metric. If the rich have incomes that an 10
times more than the poor, then this statistic shows how
regressive the tax is - not how progressive it is.
On the fallacy of Trump's so-called "border adjustment
tax," and the Republican civil war it might spark.
BY MAX B. SAWICKY FROM APRIL 7, 2017
The history of the world used to be the history of class
struggle. Now the history of the world seems to be the
back-and-forth over the taxation of the 1 percent. Over the
decades, federal income tax rates have changed less for the
vast middle class than they have for the rich. In the
fabulous 1950s, the top marginal rate in the personal income
tax was 91 percent. Now it's just under 40 percent.
Meanwhile, the contribution of corporate income taxes to
federal revenue has gone down while that of the payroll tax
has gone up. And I needn't have to remind you that the share
of pre-tax income claimed by the rich has skyrocketed.
This has been a bipartisan exercise, but for the
Republican Congress, the work of lubricating the lubricated
is still not done. Under the Clinton Administration, budget
deficits were fought at great political cost and eliminated
by the end of the 1990s. This amounted to a swell gift to the
incoming Republican Administration after the (s)election of
2000: namely, an opportunity to cut taxes and jump the
deficit right back up. Which of course they did.
Now here we are, in 2017, after the Obama Administration
has brought the deficit down from $1.5 trillion in Fiscal
Year 2009 to $621 billion in FY2016, again at great political
cost. You don't have to think very hard to guess what the
Republican majority in Congress is up to next. But there is
still one problem.
The Republican Congress came in on the coattails of a
different kind of Republican. While Donald Trump has been
surrendering his populist commitments like clockwork, he
appears to still be of a mind to do something about trade, an
issue which might have been his strongest political card in
the primaries and general election. He has undone Obama's
Trans-Pacific Partnership, the infamous TPP, but he is
half-stepping on killing the North American Free Trade
Agreement. Moreover, replacing a single omnibus trade deal
like the TPP with a plethora of individual deals, one country
at a time, will be a gargantuan, time-consuming task, of
which the results will likely be a long way into the future.
What's left? Taxes. And the President has decided that he
wants to tax imports.
The leading vehicle for Trump's efforts to advantage U.S.
manufacturing is the so-called "border adjustment tax," known
to wonks as the "Destination-Based Cash Flow Tax" (DBCFT).
Since there seem to be no plans to invade Mexico yet, it is
not the border that would be adjusted, just the taxation of
imports and exports.
Less remarked about the DBCFT is that it
repeals-and-replaces the U.S. corporate income tax. More
specifically, it eliminates the tax on most corporate income
and, supposedly, recovers the revenue by taxing imports. Yet
the effective tax rate on capital (dividends, interest, rent,
capital gains) is reduced to zero. It is truly the populism
of fools.
The fun part is that to minimize the increase of federal
deficits, after Trump's months of ranting about the national
debt, the DBCFT makes itself affordable by goring the ox of
firms in the business of selling imported goods. This
includes all the big retailers such as Walmart and Target,
but also industries that import raw materials for further
processing. Among the latter is the petrochemical sector.
What this means is that the DBCFT is setting off a civil war
among conservative tax-cutters.
The sides line up roughly in the same way they did for
health care. The border tax was hatched in the House under
the tutelage of House Speaker Paul Ryan. The White House,
especially trade militants like Steven Bannon and Peter
Navarro, is on board. On the other side is a parade of
astro-turfy opposition groups and allied corporate interests,
including the formidable Koch network. Sound familiar? This
was the same gang that killed Ryan's replacement for
Obamacare. So we have reason to think we may already know how
this will end.
A relatively accessible discussion of the DBCFT by Alan
Auerbach and friends can be found at the Center for American
Progress. Auerbach describes it compactly (and misleadingly,
see below) as "a tax on consumption from sources other than
wages and salaries." This description may actually appeal to
some liberals. Like the original Hall-Rabushka flat tax, it's
actually an elegant idea. It simplifies the taxation of
corporations and it might reduce tax avoidance. It could
raise a great deal of money if the tax rate is kept close to
the current one.
On the minus side, it makes the distribution of the tax
burden less progressive, and under Republican authorship it
is unlikely to raise any net revenue. If history is any
guide, we can count on the contrary. Oh, and the DBCFT is
probably illegal under existing trade agreements.
But, more than that, Auerbach's claim that the tax only
falls on consumption by recipients of capital income
(dividends, interest, rent, capital gains) is misleading or
wrong for four reasons:
The notion that wages escape taxation rests on the
counterfactual wherein wages are part of the firm's tax base,
as under a value-added tax (VAT). But the actual
counterfactual in force is the U.S. corporate income tax
(CIT), which does not include wages in the tax base. Compared
to the CIT, there is in fact a shift in tax burden to wages
used for the consumption of imports.
At the time the new tax takes effect, those who have
savings based on wages do in fact bear the tax insofar as
they purchase imported goods, or goods that require imported
materials for manufacture. Only until they are all literally
dead will it be true that, in Auerbach's sense (but see #1),
only non-wage income is taxed when it is used for
consumption.
Those with non-wage income who are not necessarily rich
recipients of capital income, such as food stamp
beneficiaries, also bear the burden of the tax on imports.
So too do workers bear the burden of the tax who reap
above "normal" returns to investments based on their wages.
In summary, Paul Ryan's tax cut vehicle is a target-rich
environment for critics, many of whom will be found in his
own caucus. Nor can he expect much relief from his Democratic
counterparts.
Max Sawicky is excellent as always. You should read this
paragraph over and over until it finally gets through:
'Less remarked about the DBCFT is that it
repeals-and-replaces the U.S. corporate income tax. More
specifically, it eliminates the tax on most corporate income
and, supposedly, recovers the revenue by taxing imports. Yet
the effective tax rate on capital (dividends, interest, rent,
capital gains) is reduced to zero. It is truly the populism
of fools.'
"... Probably the biggest single factor was public employment was savagely cut during the Obama presidency which would have kept economic activity higher at a fairly cheap cost. ..."
"... the owning/lending class tends to dislike inflation for some reason... ..."
"... I think this is highly dependent on one's understanding of "equitable". Monetary policy can be used in a way that ensures safe income streams to those who already own many financial assets. Some people think that is how it should be and therefore "equitable". ..."
"The central bank remains important for useful tasks - the clearing of checks, the replacement of
worn and dirty banknotes, as a loan source of last resort. These tasks it performs well.
With other public agencies in the United States, it also supervises the subordinate commercial
banks. This is a job which it can do well and needs to do better. In recent years the regulatory
agencies, including the Federal reserve, have relaxed somewhat their vigilance. At the same time
numerous of the banks have been involved in another of the age-old spasms of optimism and feckless
expansion. The result could be a new round of failures. It is to such matters that the Federal Reserve
needs to give its attention.
These tasks apart, the reputation of central bankers will be the greater, the less responsibility
they assume. Perhaps they can lean against the wind - resist a little and increase rates when the
demand for loans is persistently great, reverse themselves when the reverse situation holds.
But, in the main, control must be - as it was in the United States during the war years and the
good years following - over the forces which cause firms and persons to seek loans and not over whether
they are given or not given the loans."
-From "Money: Whence it came,Where it went" 1975 - pgs 305,6.
[Mariner Eccles explained it
way back in the 1930's:]
"Pushing on a String: An Origin Story
There's a long-standing metaphor in monetary policy that the central bank "can't push on
a string." It means that while a central bank can certainly slow down an economy or even drive
an economy into recession with an ill-timed or too-large increase interest rates, the power
of monetary policy is not symmetric.
When a central bank reduces interest rates in an attempt to stimulate the economy, it may
not make much difference if banks don't think it's a good time to lend or firms and consumers
don't think it's a good time to borrow. In other words, monetary policy is like a string with
which a central bank can "pull" back the economy, but pushing on a string just crumples the
string.
The "can't push on a string" metaphor appears in many intro-level economics texts.
It has also gotten a heavy work-out these last few years as people have sought to understand
why either economic output or inflation wasn't stimulated more greatly by having the Federal
Reserve's target interest rate (the "federal funds" rate) near zero percent for going on seven
years now, especially when combined with "forward guidance" promises that this policy would
continue into the future and a couple trillion dollars of direct Federal Reserve purchases
of Treasury debt and mortgage-backed securities.
The first use of "pushing on a string" in a monetary policy context may have occurred in
hearings before House Committee on Banking and Currency on March 18, 1935, concerning the proposed
Banking Act of 1935. Marriner Eccles, who was appointed Chairman of the Fed in 1934 and served
on the Board of Governors until 1951, was taking questions from Rep. Thomas Alan Goldsborough
(D-MD) and Prentiss M. Brown (D-MI). The hearings are here; the relevant exchange is on p.
377, during a discussion of what the Fed might be able to do to end deflation."
The Fed didn't try very hard
with its unconventional monetary policy. It was always worried about inflation. Plus it had
to overcome the unprecedented austerity which Congress pushed on the economy.
If you look
at the recovery and say monetary policy didn't work, you are either insane or highly ideological.
Now, the recovery could have been much quicker and better with the help of fiscal policy
and other policies.
Must be so, because the following certainly is not true =
"We are all Keynesians now"
OK, not all one way or the other but the Keynesians are under siege by monetarists including
ones that do not know what a monetarist is or that they are one.
It is not that monetary policy
is entirely ineffective at stimulating demand, but that its effects are very limited according
to the very narrow channels in which its effects are most pronounced, intermediation risks,
widening the term spread or yield curve, and making short term business loans and related prime
rate small short term loans. It does next to nothing towards reducing credit rationing by financial
institutions after a shock, which would be highly stimulative compared to just lowering the
FFR. Purchase of the riskiest assets by the Fed was probably most effective at reducing credit
rationing since it lowered the risk of bank loan portfolios. Just buying up safe assets had
mixed results on lowering long term interest rates, but was more successful on that than reducing
credit rationing.
All your jargon obscures the
point that the Fed didn't really try that hard with its unconventional policy b/c of politics.
It's like arguing that the ARRA didn't work very well. It did work and could have been bigger
and better but policymakers are too conservative when it comes to macro policy.
Tight money means credit rationing.
Cheap money does not necessarily get looser. Yes, widening the term spread helps loosen, but
narrowing the term spread does not. Other forms of monetary policy such as government loan
guarantees on small business loans loosen money more than QE.
Because you're wrong and misleading.
The Fed does the minimal amount of experimental unconventional policy - always paranoid over
inflation - while Congress forces unprecedented fiscal austerity on the economy. I'd say monetary
policy works. Doesn't mean fiscal policy doesn't work better.
"Now here we are, in 2017, after
the Obama Administration has brought the deficit down from $1.5 trillion in Fiscal Year 2009
to $621 billion in FY2016, "
Via Max Sawicky, below. $900 billion in austerity that monetary
policy had to fight against.
I don't think it is as simple
as you have outlined here. Debt as a percentage of GDP has doubled since 2009 so that has provided
some relief.
Probably the biggest single factor was public employment was savagely cut
during the Obama presidency which would have kept economic activity higher at a fairly cheap
cost.
"Debt as a percentage of GDP
has doubled since 2009 so that has provided some relief."
wut?
The largest difference was there was little to no Federal aid to the states which had to
run balanced budgets.
We can all agree after the ARRA ran its course, there was massive, unprecedented austerity
forced on the economy by Republicans, just as in the UK and we see the results when central
banks didn't do enough unconventional policy to fully offset it.
A crappy recovery and the election of Trump/Brexit.
I think this is highly dependent
on one's understanding of "equitable". Monetary policy can be used in a way that ensures safe
income streams to those who already own many financial assets. Some people think that is how
it should be and therefore "equitable".
I have no idea how monetary policy with its currently defined policy tools can be used effectively,
by itself, to redistribute wealth in the other direction, which is probably most people's understanding
of "equitable".
If it was, by itself, able to cause large jumps in inflation, that might feed back into
rapidly rising nominal wages and large losses to the current holders of financial assets like
bonds and loan books. That might be considered more "equitable" to some, but current limitations
on monetary policy prevent it from creating inflation all by itself.
RGC
April 08, 2017 at 06:53 AM
Re: The Economy May Be Stuck in a Near-Zero
World - Justin Wolfers
...................
"In a nutshell, the American economy appears to have changed in a way that undermines the effectiveness
of monetary policy but not fiscal policy, which may need to be wielded more actively."
......................
[The economy hasn't changed. Monetary policy has always been ineffective in stimulating demand and
is an instrument that neoclassical/neoliberal economists have used to avoid discussion of fiscal
policy. They serve their plutocratic masters in that way and thus reap their rewards of tenured professorships,
lucrative consulting positions, government positions and media acclaim.]
RGC -> RGC...
,
April 08, 2017 at 07:17 AM
As John Kenneth Galbraith remarked:
"The central bank remains
important for useful tasks - the clearing of checks, the replacement
of worn and dirty banknotes, as a loan source of last resort.
These tasks it performs well.
With other public agencies in the United States, it also supervises
the subordinate commercial banks. This is a job which it can
do well and needs to do better. In recent years the regulatory
agencies, including the Federal reserve, have relaxed somewhat
their vigilence. At the same time numerous of the banks have
been involved in another of the age-old spasms of optimism and
feckless expansion. The result could be a new round of failures.
It is to such matters that the Federal Reserve needs to give
its attention.
These tasks apart, the reputation of central bankers will
be the greater, the less responsibility they assume. Perhaps
they can lean against the wind - resist a little and increase
rates when the demand for loans is persistently great, reverse
themselves when the reverse situation holds.
But, in the main, control must be - as it was in the United
States during the war years and the good years following - over
the forces which cause firms and persons to seek loans and not
over whether they are given or not given the loans."
-From "Money: Whence it came,Where it went" 1975 - pgs 305,6.
[Mariner Eccles explained it way back in the 1930's:]
"Pushing on a String: An Origin Story
There's a long-standing metaphor in monetary policy that the
central bank "can't push on a string." It means that while a
central bank can certainly slow down an economy or even drive
an economy into recession with an ill-timed or too-large increase
interest rates, the power of monetary policy is not symmetric.
When a central bank reduces interest rates in an attempt to
stimulate the economy, it may not make much difference if banks
don't think it's a good time to lend or firms and consumers don't
think it's a good time to borrow. In other words, monetary policy
is like a string with which a central bank can "pull" back the
economy, but pushing on a string just crumples the string.
The "can't push on a string" metaphor appears in many
intro-level economics texts. It has also gotten a heavy work-out
these last few years as people have sought to understand why
either economic output or inflation wasn't stimulated more greatly
by having the Federal Reserve's target interest rate (the "federal
funds" rate) near zero percent for going on seven years now,
especially when combined with "forward guidance" promises that
this policy would continue into the future and a couple trillion
dollars of direct Federal Reserve purchases of Treasury debt
and mortgage-backed securities.
The first use of "pushing on a string" in a monetary policy
context may have occurred in hearings before House Committee
on Banking and Currency on March 18, 1935, concerning the proposed
Banking Act of 1935. Marriner Eccles, who was appointed Chairman
of the Fed in 1934 and served on the Board of Governors until
1951, was taking questions from Rep. Thomas Alan Goldsborough
(D-MD) and Prentiss M. Brown (D-MI). The hearings are here; the
relevant exchange is on p. 377, during a discussion of what the
Fed might be able to do to end deflation."
The Fed didn't try very hard with its unconventional monetary
policy. It was always worried about inflation. Plus it had to
overcome the unprecedented austerity which Congress pushed on
the economy.
If you look at the recovery and say monetary policy
didn't work, you are either insane or highly ideological.
Now, the recovery could have been much quicker and better
with the help of fiscal policy and other policies.
Must be so, because the following certainly is not true =
"We are all Keynesians now"
OK, not all one way or the other but the Keynesians are under
siege by monetarists including ones that do not know what a monetarist
is or that they are one.
It is not that monetary policy is entirely ineffective at stimulating
demand, but that its effects are very limited according to the
very narrow channels in which its effects are most pronounced,
intermediation risks, widening the term spread or yield curve,
and making short term business loans and related prime rate small
short term loans. It does next to nothing towards reducing credit
rationing by financial institutions after a shock, which would
be highly stimulative compared to just lowering the FFR. Purchase
of the riskiest assets by the Fed was probably most effective
at reducing credit rationing since it lowered the risk of bank
loan portfolios. Just buying up safe assets had mixed results
on lowering long term interest rates, but was more successful
on that than reducing credit rationing.
All your jargon obscures the point that the Fed didn't really
try that hard with its unconventional policy b/c of politics.
It's like arguing that the ARRA didn't work very well. It did
work and could have been bigger and better but policymakers are
too conservative when it comes to macro policy.
"Sure, it's lovely that unemployment in Seattle dips under
3%. But an attempt to tie that drop in the unemployment rate
to the minimum wage isn't going to work. For we can as easily
note that the unemployment rate has dropped everywhere in the
US over this same time period and the minimum wage hasn't
risen everywhere over that time period. We've not even got a
consistent correlation between minimum wages and unemployment
that is.mWhat we've actually got to do is try to work out
some method of what would have happened in Seattle from all
of the effects of everything else other than the minimum
wage, then compare it to what did happen with the minimum
wage. The difference between these two will be the effect of
the minimum wage rise. Seattle City Council know this, which
is why they asked the University of Washington to run exactly
such a study."
Why Fiscal Progressivity Discussions Are So Muddled
Posted by Matt Bruenig on March 26, 2015
Yesterday I wrote about the mistaken way that I think some commentators discuss cross-country
tax progressivity. Based on OECD tables and the work of Monica Prasad, the conventional wisdom
is that low-inequality countries use extremely progressive transfers rather than progressive
taxes to get that way. But when you look at transfer levels in these countries broken down
by income decile, you often see something like this:
[chart]
That sure doesn't seem like progressive transfer spending, does it? So how can the conventional
wisdom be right if the graph looks like that? Why does this graph seem on first glance to so
challenge the conventional wisdom? The answer lies deep in the methodological weeds. Explaining
it helps to reveal why I find these discussions to be so muddled and why I think the conveying
of the conventional wisdom tends to be broadly unhelpful to normal (and often even very sophisticated)
audiences.
...
Treatments of this topic that fail to convey this (and I think many of them do, often because
even the writer doesn't understand what's going on) darken more than they illuminate. Really,
the "progressivity" discussions in general do that, making the topic far more complicated and
muddled than it needs to be.
Which is especially sad because the Nordic model of inequality reduction is pretty simple:
use broad-based transfers to increase everyone's gross income and balance that fiscally by
levying taxes that increase with income.
Some of what he writes makes
a little sense but this is really dumb:
"The bigger problem with the regressivity objection,
in my view, is that dividing taxes paid by income seems to obscure the more important point.
What really matters in all of this is how many dollars you are scraping from poor, middle class,
and rich people."
Not considering the level of income - just how much a person pays in taxes? Heck - that
makes the head tax OK. Dumbest metric for the fairness of the tax system ever.
"Which
is especially sad because the Nordic model of inequality reduction is pretty simple: use broad-based
transfers to increase everyone's gross income and balance that fiscally by levying taxes that
increase with income."
Mainstream center-left Democrats like
Justin Wolfers or Jason Furman - even Krugman and Summers - don't to say that government spending
always works or is always the answer so they say it's only in this special situation when we're at
or near the ZLB and the Fed has to rely on unconventional policy.
And then zombie supposed-leftwingers
like RGC say monetary policy only works when rates rise and credit is rationed. Sorry, that's incredibly
stupid.
Fiscal policy always works as does monetary policy, just depends on how well it is executed and
how much is done.
The people who say monetary policy doesn't work are just providing excuses to the Fed which didn't
really try and gave us the worst recovery on record.
But when asked, the Fed says they gave us the recovery they wanted. Massive fukin cognitive dissonance.
Under neoliberalism government
intervention is prohibited as it undermines the fundamental myth about self-regulating "free
market". Which is the symbol of faith for neoliberals.
That means that the helicopter drops is the only tool that is left in recessions.
"... Yes, and look how that approval rating breaks down by party affiliation. It's single digits among Democrats, in the 30s among independents and 75-80% among Republicans. Basically, the vast majority of Republicans still think Trump is ok. That is friggin scary. ..."
"... Good thing we got Trump. Clinton and the DNC media make up the news. ..."
Unapologetic ugliness has a sizeable constituency. As much of
a problem as that core constituency is, I think the even
larger cohort that's content to turn a blind eye to things is
a bigger problem.
Trump has a 40 pct approval rating. Not all of that is
core support. Most of those who approve are simply okay with
him doing his thing - "leading".
Yes, and look how that approval rating breaks down by
party affiliation. It's single digits among Democrats, in the
30s among independents and 75-80% among Republicans.
Basically, the vast majority of Republicans still think Trump
is ok. That is friggin scary.
I understand that you have zero physics knowledge. You do not need to repeat that.
And my opinion certainly is more credible on issues such as Russia because I can compare views of two sides of this conflict
(remember Latin dictum "Audi alteram partem" ) and you do not and do not want to do this.
All you do by attacking ilsm, who BTW, unlike you, served his country, is to demonstrate the level of your indoctrination
into jingoism and militarism. Which is impressive, but not so interesting, other than for study of groupthink.
The only thing you can do on issues of foreign policy is to regurgitate uncritically the propaganda taken from CNN. Which
actually makes you yet another neoliberal twerp in this forum.
I actually do not even remember when the last time I thought of your posts on issues of foreign policy as anything worse noting
.
At least I studied Russian history and the language.
While your ignorance and jingoism make you a laughing stock for those people who are not indoctrinated into American exceptionalism.
If there is some connection, it will come out after some time. Comey said there was an FBI investigation
into Russian interference in the election. The former National Security adviser Flynn wants an
immunity deal.
But the liberals like PGL have certainly gone hysterical in that it reminds me of McCarthyism.
They'd rather talk about the traitors than why Hillary lost the election to a buffoon. Samantha
Bee joked that the Russian hackers who spread fake news in Midwest swing states had a better game
plan than Hillary.
The center-left cant' believe they lost to Trump. So they focus on Russia, the external enemy.
The Trump Organization subsisted for years off Russian oligarch money and his campaign and administration
are lousy with people paid directly by them for political activities including his son.
And you wonder "if" there is a connection? Bless your useful heart.
I am going to bet that you are Hillary email scandal denier. And worse -- clueless jingoist,
who get your all foreign policy information from the CNN and then uncritically regurgitate this
neoliberal propaganda here.
Each of us has a set of positions, and there should be some level of respect of them despite
differences, because it is the debate that gets us closer to the truth.
And it is a required behavior for those, who like you continuously try to show up your university
education, despite the evidence to the contrary that that their posts often produce.
The real sign of the university education is the tolerance toward the opponents. It is badly
lacking in your behavior in this forum.
IMO, much of the focus on "immigration" as a mechanism for
low wage growth is a red-herring that seeks to turn attention
away from the undermining of labor, civil, and voting rights.
"First, not all migrants are competing against native
workers. Some are complements, and so help to raise wages."
"Of course, it is the case that real wages have been under
pressure in recent years. But why blame immigrants for this?
There are many other culprits: weaker trades unions; fiscal
austerity; financialization (pdf); the financial crisis;
power-biased technical change; and all the things that have
depressed productivity."
It's because Krugman fails to use the terms "job killing tax cuts", "job killing deregulation",
"job killing coal", "job killing cheap oil", "job killing easy credit", "job killing profits".
Followed by simple explanations using real world examples of workers who have lost their jobs
thanks to tax cuts, thanks to deregulation, thanks to high profits, thanks to easy credit.
Krugman has bought into free lunch economics, but simply wants to pick different winners and
losers.
Look at the efforts to repeal Obamacare. That will kill hundreds of thousands of jobs every
quarter, quarter after quarter, unless government bailout the corporations trying to avoid bankruptcy
by slashing payrolls, bailouts funded with easy cheap credit.
Obamacare forced people with income to pay more and more workers to deliver more and more medical
care. Zero sum. The cost to people paying the new taxes and insurance premiums pay the increasing
labor costs of higher employment in health care delivering more health to the consumers most in
need of consuming health care.
If a tax on gasoline was increased to $1 a gallon for Federal and State, every added penny
in revenue from years 1 to 10 will spent in years 2 to 7, with already scheduled maintenance for
the next 18 months done in 12 months. This is forced spending by people who have money most are
not spending on stuff made by local workers.
We could have Hillary in the oval office. Trump applied Obama
doctrine of 'unjust peace has to be stopped by just cruise
missiles aiding terrorists'.
Soviet cluster munitions (CBUs)in
Afghanistan were evil. Saudi cluster munitions killing Shi'a
kids in Yemen are "leadership". CBU's artillery shells
dispensing bomblets and land mines are banned by other
treaties the US does not follow.
Pix of dead kids only matter in Syria. US double standard.
US just flew tomahawk land attack missile (TLAM) support
for al Qaeda!
It's because they're trying
to raise taxes with the DBCTF/BAT to somewhat offset the tax
cuts for the rich and corporations. Glibertarians and the
Freedom Caucus want nothing but tax cuts and to drown the
baby. Plus the BAT would raise taxes on importers like
Walmart and the Koch brothers who have been fighting it.
If you just read PGL the Facile you wouldn't understand
any of this, just "the Republicans are proposing tax reform
so you should oppose it" like you're a dumb trained monkey.
This will probably upset Darryl and PGL the Facile:
In my last post, I said that it would be good if the US
imposed a consumption tax such as the value-added tax (VAT).
Critics generally say that these kinds of taxes are bad
because they are "regressive." While it is true that they are
regressive under the way that word is generally used, that
entire way of thinking about taxes is confused and muddled
(as I've discussed previously in the case of the Nordics).
The standard response to those who raise the regressivity
objection is to say that it just depends on how the proceeds
of the consumption tax are spent. This is true, but only
because it is true of all taxes. Even progressive taxes are
only good if the proceeds are spent well. You could spend
them on bad things and even in ways that make inequality
worse.
The bigger problem with the regressivity objection, in my
view, is that dividing taxes paid by income seems to obscure
the more important point. What really matters in all of this
is how many dollars you are scraping from poor, middle class,
and rich people. Consumption taxes scrape more dollars from
people who consume more and it is the rich who consume more.
According to the 2015 Consumer Expenditure Survey, the
richest income quintile consumes an average of $110,424 while
the poorest income quintile consumes an average of just
$24,355.
A 10 percent consumption tax would thus draw $2,435 from
the poorest quintile and $11,042 from the richest quintile.
Which is to say that such a tax draws 4.5 times as much money
from the rich as the poor.
Whether the money drawn from the consumption tax
ultimately reduces inequality does depend on how it is spent,
but it is not like it needs to be spent in an especially
"progressive" way, i.e. in a way that is heavily targeted
towards the poor. Even if you spent this money in a way that
benefited all quintiles equally, you'd still see a pretty
significant net swing.
Of course, this graph features a rather simplistic
analysis as it assumes consumption does not change at all in
response to the tax and benefit reforms. But even if the
precise figures would be somewhat different in a real life
implementation, the basic pattern of the graph above would
still hold.
None of this is to say that a consumption tax is better
than other taxes. The US has plenty of room to increase its
tax level by upping income taxes, and so that's a natural
place to look. But to say consumption taxes are bad generally
is pretty clearly mistaken.
The smarter glibertarians like Dan Mitchell understand this
which is why they oppose the DBCFT and why it will fare about
as well as the Republicans' health care reform.
That's the
basic point of Krugmans' column which is correct.
Republicans' policies aren't that popular. Lucky for them the
Democrats put up bad candidates like Hillary Clinton to run
against them. Lucky for them center-left economists like
Krugman shill for Hillary and attack their own side with
their dishonest campaign against Sanders.
Dan Mitchell and you agree on one thing - you are both
supporting the end of the corporate profits tax. Oh - you
don't get the point that that is what DBCFT does? Go figure!
I don't support the end of the corporate profits tax. I don't
support the DBCFT. I supported Bernie Sanders who advocated
higher taxes than Hillary, your gal. You attacked Sanders and
his supporters unfairly, calling them Bernie Bros and
"unrealistic."
For the 20 millionth time - I never attacked Senator Sanders.
And for someone who does not support Ryan's little fraud -
you spend a lot of time hyping it. Of course your hype is
even dumber than his hype.
Dan Mitchell the glibertarian points out how in Europe the
VAT kept going up and up funding a larger and larger welfare
state. That's why the Glibs oppose the Ryan plan, kind of
like how the Freedom Caucus opposed Ryan's Obamacare Lite.
If you just read PGL the Facile, you wouldn't understand
these intricacies.
What is the corporate tax good for? If corporations don't pay
taxes (zero tax rate), extra earnings will just flow through
to the owners as dividends that they will pay tax on. Explain
how having an additional layer of taxes to get basically the
same amount is good?
I would think not taxing the means of
production would be better for jobs. If they pass the whole
thing on to the owners, it will get taxed there (just like
partnerships and individual ownership firms)
"If corporations don't pay taxes (zero tax rate), extra
earnings will just flow through to the owners as dividends
that they will pay tax on."
Seriously? I see you don't get
how it easy it is for owners of capital to dodge these taxes
with our Swiss cheese tax code. Now if we taxed all income as
it accrues at the same rate that we tax labor income -
progressives might drop the call for corporate taxes. You
think Paul Ryan will go along with my proposal?
" I see you don't get how it easy it is for owners of capital
to dodge these taxes with our Swiss cheese tax code."
This
is a serious question pgl. Somehow I do not see how owners of
capital - aka owners of shares - individuals, pension funds
etc are ANY MORE ABLE TO DODGE taxes than the companies
themselves.
Simplify the tax code, get rid of loopholes. Make capital
gains and income the same rate. Get rid of special treatment
of everything including interest paid on housing. Get rid of
the entire corporate tax code and replace sales taxes with
VAT. Sounds very logical to me.
Re: The ideas of Kenneth Arrow - Steven Durlauf
...............
"Yet the theorem trails a dense cloud of caveats, which Arrow himself recognized could be more
important than the proof itself. For one, it worked only in a perfect world, far removed from
the one humans actually inhabit. Equilibrium is merely one of many conceivable states of that
world; there's no particular reason to believe that the economy would naturally tend toward it.
Beautiful as the math may be, actual experience suggests that its magical efficiency is purely
theoretical, and a poor guide to reality."
...................
"Remarkably, academic macroeconomists have largely ignored these limitations, and continue
to teach the general equilibrium model -- and more modern variants with same fatal weaknesses
-- as a decent approximation of reality. Economists routinely use the framework to form their
views on everything from taxation to global trade -- portraying it as a value-free, scientific
approach, when in fact it carries a hidden ideology that casts completely free markets as the
ideal."
...........................
"This perversion isn't Arrow's fault. He merely helped to prove a mathematical theorem, and
was no blind advocate for markets. Indeed, he actually thought the theorem illustrated the limitations
of capitalism, and he was prescient in understanding how economic inequality might come to impair
the workings of democratic government. Perhaps it would be best to use his own words: "In a system
where virtually all resources are available for a price, economic power can be translated into
political power by channels too obvious for mention. In a capitalist society, economic power is
very unequally distributed, and hence democratic government is inevitably something of a sham.""
......................
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-09/the-misunderstanding-at-the-core-of-economics
"This perversion isn't Arrow's fault. He merely helped to prove a mathematical theorem, and was
no blind advocate for markets. Indeed, he actually thought the theorem illustrated the limitations
of capitalism"
This quote illustrates that there is some difference between neoliberalism and neo-classical
economics. Neoliberals do not care about applicability of neo-classical economics or the validity
of generalized stochastic equilibrium.
They used neo-classical theories as a ram to destroy New Deal Capitalism and paid "useful idiots"
outsized amount of money to keep them in power in economics departments.
"... The inevitable failure of economics started with Jevons/Walras/Menger but Arrow gave the final
push with this fundamental methodological specification: "It is a touchstone of accepted economics that
all explanations must run in terms of the actions and reactions of individuals. Our behavior in judging
economic research, in peer review of papers and research, and in promotions, includes the criterion
that in principle the behavior we explain and the policies we propose are explicable in terms of individuals,
not of other social categories." (Arrow, 1994) ..."
"... The definition of the subject matter translates into the following hard core propositions,
a.k.a. axioms: "HC1 economic agents have preferences over outcomes; HC2 agents individually optimize
subject to constraints; HC3 agent choice is manifest in interrelated markets; HC4 agents have full relevant
knowledge; HC5 observable outcomes are coordinated, and must be discussed with reference to equilibrium
states." (Weintraub, 1985) ..."
"... Obviously, this axiom set contains THREE NONENTITIES: (i) constrained optimization (HC2), (ii)
rational expectations (HC4), (iii) equilibrium (HC5). Every theory/model that contains a nonentity is
A PRIORI false. By consequence, General Equilibrium theory of the Arrow-Debreu type and its offspring
until DSGE/RBC/New Keynesianism is scientifically worthless. ..."
How Arrow pushed economics over the cliff
Comment on Steven Durlauf on 'Kenneth Arrow and the golden age of economic theory'
The inevitable failure of economics started with Jevons/Walras/Menger but Arrow gave
the final push with this fundamental methodological specification: "It is a touchstone of accepted
economics that all explanations must run in terms of the actions and reactions of individuals.
Our behavior in judging economic research, in peer review of papers and research, and in promotions,
includes the criterion that in principle the behavior we explain and the policies we propose
are explicable in terms of individuals, not of other social categories." (Arrow, 1994)
The definition of the subject matter translates into the following hard core propositions,
a.k.a. axioms: "HC1 economic agents have preferences over outcomes; HC2 agents individually
optimize subject to constraints; HC3 agent choice is manifest in interrelated markets; HC4
agents have full relevant knowledge; HC5 observable outcomes are coordinated, and must be discussed
with reference to equilibrium states." (Weintraub, 1985)
Obviously, this axiom set contains THREE NONENTITIES: (i) constrained optimization (HC2),
(ii) rational expectations (HC4), (iii) equilibrium (HC5). Every theory/model that contains
a nonentity is A PRIORI false. By consequence, General Equilibrium theory of the Arrow-Debreu
type and its offspring until DSGE/RBC/New Keynesianism is scientifically worthless.
Re: The ideas of Kenneth Arrow - Steven Durlauf
...............
"Yet the theorem trails a dense cloud of caveats, which Arrow himself recognized could be more
important than the proof itself. For one, it worked only in a perfect world, far removed from
the one humans actually inhabit. Equilibrium is merely one of many conceivable states of that
world; there's no particular reason to believe that the economy would naturally tend toward
it. Beautiful as the math may be, actual experience suggests that its magical efficiency is
purely theoretical, and a poor guide to reality."
...................
"Remarkably, academic macroeconomists have largely ignored these limitations, and continue
to teach the general equilibrium model -- and more modern variants with same fatal weaknesses
-- as a decent approximation of reality. Economists routinely use the framework to form their
views on everything from taxation to global trade -- portraying it as a value-free, scientific
approach, when in fact it carries a hidden ideology that casts completely free markets as the
ideal."
...........................
"This perversion isn't Arrow's fault. He merely helped to prove a mathematical theorem,
and was no blind advocate for markets. Indeed, he actually thought the theorem illustrated
the limitations of capitalism, and he was prescient in understanding how economic inequality
might come to impair the workings of democratic government. Perhaps it would be best to use
his own words: "In a system where virtually all resources are available for a price, economic
power can be translated into political power by channels too obvious for mention. In a capitalist
society, economic power is very unequally distributed, and hence democratic government is inevitably
something of a sham.""
......................
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-03-09/the-misunderstanding-at-the-core-of-economics
"I Suspect the Major Reason for the Rise in Concentration Is Technological Change, Particularly
in IT"
Posted on April 7, 2017 by ProMarket writers
In this installment of ProMarket's interview series on concentration in America, Chicago
Booth professor Steven Kaplan discusses the reasons for the rise in concentration. "Overall,
the increases in concentration from technology and regulation are positive while the increase
from rent seeking is a negative."
[The article linked above entirely misses "how economic inequality might come to impair the
workings of democratic government." Kaplan is very tentative about linking inequality to concentration
and is generally less concerned with inequality per se than monopoly rent seeking. As long
as all the sharks in the tank are free then everything is OK.]
Walmart, Home Depot and various chains/licensees are examples of concentration that didn't
arise because of network effects. Rather, they used their advantage of overwhelming amounts
of capital backing to under-price and/or outlast smaller competitors.
As a result we have wealth moving from the top 20% to the top 0.1%, wealth less geographically
disbursed and fly-over country deteriorating.
Gee - I heart what? Maybe you missed my Econospeak post where I noted how they abused transfer
pricing. Something to do with Hong Kong sourcing affiliates. I'd explain it to you all over
again but you would get angry as you usually do when you cannot grasp simple concepts.
Network effects? How about economy of scale, not least management at scale enabled by IT? Not
just in retail, IT has significantly increased management efficiency, i.e. raised the thresholds
of size and complexity where an organization becomes unmanageable (which I would define as
taking on more size or complexity leads to a *reduction* or at least no increment in output/profit).
According to a number of claims I read long ago, Walmart's power over suppliers derived in
large part from the volume they could command. Capital or not, they will not order more volume
than they can sell - so they have to be able to sell that much stuff, and profitably, to begin
with.
Missile strike demonstrates American leadership. Always bipartisan support for that. Death chemical warfare agents unacceptable so must do something. Didn't I read a Syrian quoted the other day "I buried my family today. If they had been killed by barrel bombs I could have given Assad a pass but death by chemical weapons is unacceptable."? Did I not read that? That aside, clearly there are acceptable and unacceptable ways to kill civilians. Assad crossed that line and we had to do something.
PS Real men don't consult Congress before ordering missile strikes on sovereign nations. It'd be un-American to question the wisdom of bombing a butcher like Assad. What downside could there be?
Incompetent hawks are
awful. We can at least
take some comfort that
Schumer and Pelosi
called out Trump for
acting recklessly...
Oh, wait, that was in
an alternate reality
where they did that.
@#$%.
If it weren't for
incompetence and
belligerence we would
have any foreign
policy at all.
Looks like
John O. Brennan
, then the CIA director was a very important player in creating anti-Russian hysteria. Who put
a lot of efforts is fanning the "Russian threat" meme designed to suppress Hillary email scandal and
DNC revelations. some senators such as McCain and Reid also played a role:
"Mr. Reid fired off another letter on Oct. 30, accusing Mr. Comey of a "double standard" in reviving
the Clinton investigation while sitting on "explosive information" about possible ties between
Russia and Mr. Trump."
I suspect that this is more of an attempt to unite the
divided nation (and, especially, the Democratic Party), in
which the majority of population now rejects official
ideology of neoliberalism and neoliberal globalization. With
trust in official institution such as Congress, at
dangerously low levels. And rumors (aka "fake news") rampant
due to lack of trust in discredited official media channels.
Proliferation of rumors ("improvised news") as Tamotsu
Shubitani noted in his book (
https://www.amazon.com/Improvised-News-Sociological-Study-Rumor/dp/0672511487
) is a definitive sign of the crisis of legitimacy of the
ruling elite and/or dominant ideology of a given society.
Sign of growing level of distrust.
War hysteria is a proven cure in such circumstances. It
also helps to suppress Sanders wing of the Democratic Party.
Susan A. Brewer is Professor of History at the University of
Wisconsin-Stevens Point book, Why America Fights: Patriotism
and War Propaganda from the Philippines to Iraq, told a
fascinating history of how the US elite has conducted what
Donald Rumsfeld called "perception management" on the US
population:
== quote ==
10. WE FIGHT TO STOP ANOTHER HITLER. There was only one
Hitler, but he lives on in wartime propaganda since World War
II.
9. WE FIGHT OVER THERE SO WE DON'T HAVE TO FIGHT HERE. In
this message, America typically is portrayed as a pastoral
land of small towns, not as an urban, industrialized and
militant superpower.
8. WE FIGHT CLEAN WARS WITH SUPERIOR TECHNOLOGY. This
message suggests that U.S. troops will not be in much danger,
nor will innocent civilians be killed in what is projected to
be a quick and decisive conflict.
7. WE FIGHT TO PROTECT WOMEN AND CHILDREN. A traditional
theme of war propaganda since ancient times, it is
accompanied by compelling visuals and heartrending stories.
6. WE FIGHT BRUTISH, FANATICAL ENEMIES. Another classic,
it dehumanizes enemy fighters.
5. WE FIGHT TO UNITE THE NATION. Here war is shown to heal
old wounds and unify the divisions caused by the Civil War,
class conflict, racial and ethnic differences, or past
failures such as the Vietnam War.
4. WE FIGHT FOR THE FLAG AND THE REPUBLIC FOR WHICH IT
STANDS. The trend has been to emphasize the flag over the
republic. The more flags on display, the less likely the
people's elected representatives will debate foreign policy
or exercise their power to declare war.
3. WE FIGHT TO LIBERATE THE OPPRESSED. When the oppressed
resist U.S. help, they appear ungrateful and in need of
American guidance especially if they have valuable resources.
2. WE FIGHT TO MAKE THE WORLD A BETTER PLACE. During the
Philippine War, for example, this message advised that Uncle
Sam knew what was best for the little brown brothers.
1. WE FIGHT TO PROTECT THE AMERICAN WAY OF LIFE. Although
the American way of life stands for peace, it requires a lot
of fighting.
== end of quote ==
So it like the real goal of current warmongering hysteria
is to unite the nation in general and Democratic Party in
particular against the common enemy, using Russian threat as
a scapegoat.
This also helps to preserve the grip of Clinton
(neoliberal) wing on Democratic Party, because after Hillary
momentous fiasco, in normal circumstances, all of them need
to go and be replaced with Sanders wing appointees.
Probably automated 200. In every case, displacing 3/4 of the
workers and increasing production 40% while greatly improving
quality. Exact same can be said for larger scaled such as
automobile mfg, ...
The convergence of offshoring and
automation in such a short time frame meant that instead of a
gradual transformation that might have allowed for more
evolutionary economic thinking, American workers got
gobsmacked. The aftermath includes the wage disparity, opiate
epidemic, Trump, ...
This transition is of the scale of the industrial
revolution with climate change thrown. This is just the
beginning of great social and economic turmoil. None of the
stuff that evolved specific the industrial revolution
applies.
No it was policy driven by politics. They increased profits
at the expense of workers and the middle class. The New
Democrats played along with Wall Street.
"Perhaps more important, the US and Mexico aren't just
exchanging finished goods. Rather, much of their bilateral
trade occurs within supply chains, with companies in each
country adding value at different points in the production
process. The US and Mexico are not just trading goods with
each other; they are producing goods with each other."
One also looks in vain for a mention of the devastation of
the small farm corn business in Mexico, which depended on
native corn varieties but could not compete with the flood of
market rate subsidized US production.
True - however, the incentive to push drugs for local dealers
and US based cartels would cease to exist if these drugs were
legal and if the profit margin was taxed away. Nobody
enslaves their neighbor, friend or anyone else if there is no
money in it. We did this effectively with alcohol (margins
are around 3-5% except for the craft low volume guys) and
should do the same with other drugs. It turns out that
junkies can respond to treatment if it isn't trade addiction
for addiction, and addicted people can function if they
aren't cut off or forced to constantly engage in seeking more
product.
I missed that. Perhaps the deal is to give up dispersed gains
from trade to allow indigenous farmers to avoid early death.
I can't remember whether Ricardo factored in death...
You would think that a former chair of the US President's
Council of Economic Advisers could make a better case for
NAFTA...by giving examples of how the deal improved the lives
of somebody or other. But she can't.
Instead, Tyson can
only talk about how great the deal was for cross border
supply chains...as if that was the goal of economic policy
(which it probably is.)
With people like this advising Democrats, they will surely
continue to lose, which is apparently their goal.
Brad Delong- "If the government is
properly fulfilling its duty to prevent a demand-shortfall depression, technological progress in
a market economy need not impoverish unskilled workers."
And- "Our market economy should promote, rather than undermine, societal goals that correspond to
our values and morals."
And- "First, we need to make sure that governments carry out their proper macroeconomic role, by
maintaining a stable, low-unemployment economy so that markets can function properly."
And- "Second, we need to redistribute wealth to maintain a proper distribution of income."
He is real good when he sounds like a semi-socialist capitalist. In my opinion. In any event, I agree
with him here.
Maybe NAFTA and China would have
been good for workers if Brad could have got the government to "carry out their proper macroeconomic
role, by maintaining a stable, low unemployment economy" and to "redistribute wealth to maintain
a proper distribution of income".
Unfortunately, something went wrong with that plan.
Republicans is what went wrong.
They were all about the globalization and the opportunity to make money in China - but they
were unwilling to tax or to engage in redistribution. It isn't like this is hard to figure
out - it is their platform.
Robert Atkinson Pushes Pro-Rich Protectionist Agenda in
the Washington Post
The Washington Post is always open to plans for taking
money from ordinary workers and giving it to the rich. For
this reason it was not surprising to see a piece * by Robert
Atkinson, the head of the industry funded Information
Technology and Innovation Foundation, advocating for more
protectionism in the form of stronger and longer patent and
copyright monopolies.
These monopolies, legacies from the medieval guild system,
can raise the price of the protected items by one or two
orders of magnitudes making them equivalent to tariffs of
several hundred or several thousand percent. They are
especially important in the case of prescription drugs.
Life-saving drugs that would sell for $200 or $300 in a
free market can sell for tens or even hundreds of thousands
of dollars due to patent protection. The country will spend
over $440 billion this year for drugs that would likely sell
for less than $80 billion in a free market. The strengthening
of these protections is an important cause of the upward
redistribution of the last four decades. The difference comes
to more than $2,700 a year for an average family. (This is
discussed in "Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the
Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer," **
where I also lay out alternative mechanisms for financing
innovation and creative work.)
Atkinson makes this argument in the context of the U.S.
relationship with China. He also is explicitly prepared to
have ordinary workers pay the price for this protectionism.
He warns that not following his recommendation for a new
approach to dealing with China, including forcing them to
impose more protection for U.S. patents and copyrights, would
lead to a lower valued dollar.
Of course a lower valued dollar will make U.S. goods and
services more competitive internationally. That would mean a
smaller trade deficit as we sell more manufactured goods
elsewhere in the world and buy fewer imported goods in the
United States. This could increase manufacturing employment
by 1-2 million, putting upward pressure on the wages of
non-college educated workers.
In short, not following Atkinson's path is likely to mean
more money for less-educated workers, less money for the
rich, and more overall growth, as the economy benefits from
the lessening of protectionist barriers.
Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern
Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer
By Dean Baker
The Old Technology and Inequality Scam: The Story of
Patents and Copyrights
One of the amazing lines often repeated by people in
policy debates is that, as a result of technology, we are
seeing income redistributed from people who work for a living
to the people who own the technology. While the
redistribution part of the story may be mostly true, the
problem is that the technology does not determine who "owns"
the technology. The people who write the laws determine who
owns the technology.
Specifically, patents and copyrights give their holders
monopolies on technology or creative work for their duration.
If we are concerned that money is going from ordinary workers
to people who hold patents and copyrights, then one policy we
may want to consider is shortening and weakening these
monopolies. But policy has gone sharply in the opposite
direction over the last four decades, as a wide variety of
measures have been put into law that make these protections
longer and stronger. Thus, the redistribution from people who
work to people who own the technology should not be
surprising - that was the purpose of the policy.
If stronger rules on patents and copyrights produced
economic dividends in the form of more innovation and more
creative output, then this upward redistribution might be
justified. But the evidence doesn't indicate there has been
any noticeable growth dividend associated with this upward
redistribution. In fact, stronger patent protection seems to
be associated with slower growth.
Before directly considering the case, it is worth thinking
for a minute about what the world might look like if we had
alternative mechanisms to patents and copyrights, so that the
items now subject to these monopolies could be sold in a free
market just like paper cups and shovels.
The biggest impact would be in prescription drugs. The
breakthrough drugs for cancer, hepatitis C, and other
diseases, which now sell for tens or hundreds of thousands of
dollars annually, would instead sell for a few hundred
dollars. No one would have to struggle to get their insurer
to pay for drugs or scrape together the money from friends
and family. Almost every drug would be well within an
affordable price range for a middle-class family, and
covering the cost for poorer families could be easily managed
by governments and aid agencies.
The same would be the case with various medical tests and
treatments. Doctors would not have to struggle with a
decision about whether to prescribe an expensive scan, which
might be the best way to detect a cancerous growth or other
health issue, or to rely on cheaper but less reliable
technology. In the absence of patent protection even the most
cutting edge scans would be reasonably priced.
Health care is not the only area that would be transformed
by a free market in technology and creative work. Imagine
that all the textbooks needed by college students could be
downloaded at no cost over the web and printed out for the
price of the paper. Suppose that a vast amount of new books,
recorded music, and movies was freely available on the web.
People or companies who create and innovate deserve to be
compensated, but there is little reason to believe that the
current system of patent and copyright monopolies is the best
way to support their work. It's not surprising that the
people who benefit from the current system are reluctant to
have the efficiency of patents and copyrights become a topic
for public debate, but those who are serious about inequality
have no choice. These forms of property claims have been
important drivers of inequality in the last four decades.
The explicit assumption behind the steps over the last
four decades to increase the strength and duration of patent
and copyright protection is that the higher prices resulting
from increased protection will be more than offset by an
increased incentive for innovation and creative work. Patent
and copyright protection should be understood as being like
very large tariffs. These protections can often the raise the
price of protected items by several multiples of the free
market price, making them comparable to tariffs of several
hundred or even several thousand percent. The resulting
economic distortions are comparable to what they would be if
we imposed tariffs of this magnitude.
The justification for granting these monopoly protections
is that the increased innovation and creative work that is
produced as a result of these incentives exceeds the economic
costs from patent and copyright monopolies. However, there is
remarkably little evidence to support this assumption. While
the cost of patent and copyright protection in higher prices
is apparent, even if not well-measured, there is little
evidence of a substantial payoff in the form of a more rapid
pace of innovation or more and better creative work....
"... While he said this Susan Rice was "unredacting" the politically motivated surveillance of republicans, calling it "counter intelligence" while none of these people had any critical sensitive information to share unlike Clinton's 30000 e-mails. ..."
"... Those "unredactings" have been leaked to attempt to discredit the US elections. ..."
"... Seems Obama was surrounded by no one who was "serious/sensible" but many who used his office to attack the US Bill of Rights. ..."
In Oct 2016 Obama said "there is no serious/sensible person
who believes the US election could be hacked...."
While he
said this Susan Rice was "unredacting" the politically
motivated surveillance of republicans, calling it "counter
intelligence" while none of these people had any critical
sensitive information to share unlike Clinton's 30000
e-mails.
Those "unredactings" have been leaked to attempt to
discredit the US elections.
Seems Obama was surrounded by no one who was
"serious/sensible" but many who used his office to attack the
US Bill of Rights.
Since 9 Nov 16 the DNC and its media tools have tried a
coup by discrediting the US election using the security
apparatus to assault privacy and they got nothing!
"... There's a long-standing tension in organizations between innovation and bureaucracy. Excessive layers of management and byzantine processes often shoulder the blame when a promising idea fails to make it to market or a nimble start-up thwarts a mature competitor. ..."
"... In capitalism the inherent maladies of bureaucracies serve to discourage lower echelons and keep them in their place without directly associating the blame for hierarchal authoritarianism with top executives. That is to say that bureaucratic dysfunction plays a key role in the essential function of the petite bourgeoisie to maintain the bourgeois capitalist system. OTOH, bureaucratic dysfunction plays a similar key role in all hierarchal authoritarian systems. ..."
RC AKA Darryl, Ron -> Tom aka Rusty...
Reply
Thursday, April 06, 2017 at 07:54
AM
[In his "Little Red Book" the machinations
of self-serving bureaucrats was one of Chainman Mao's biggest pet peeves. ]
There's a long-standing tension in organizations between innovation and bureaucracy. Excessive
layers of management and byzantine processes often shoulder the blame when a promising idea fails
to make it to market or a nimble start-up thwarts a mature competitor.
That tension can be traced back at least 340 years, to an inadvertent collaboration between
two government officials in France. In 1665, with the French economy in turmoil, King Louis XIV
appointed Jean-Baptiste Colbert as his comptroller general of finance. Colbert prosecuted corrupt
officials and reorganized commerce and industry according to the economic principles known as
mercantilism. To assure the populace that the government would act fairly in monetary disputes,
he demanded that officials abide by certain rules and apply them uniformly to everyone.
Then, in 1751, Jean Claude Marie Vincent de Gournay became France's administrator of commerce.
Gournay was outraged by what Colbert had put in place and railed against the multitude of government
regulations he believed were suppressing business activity. To describe a government run by insensitive
creators and enforcers of rules, who neither understood nor cared about the consequences of their
actions, he coined the term bureaucratie. Translation: "government by desks."
*
[There are democratic solutions to the dilemma posed by bureaucracies, but there are no republican
solutions for it. Important to note, that both the little "d" in democratic and the little "r"
in republican are profoundly significant to solving the dilemma of bureaucracy, or not.
Mao's brand of communism was too paranoid, paternal, and hierarchal to work any better than
a common ordinary garden variety republic. It seemed like Mao actually wanted to be more democratic
in governing and in the work place but could not really bring himself to do it as he was a neurotically
compulsive micromanager just as any dictator would need to be.
In capitalism the inherent maladies of bureaucracies serve to discourage lower echelons
and keep them in their place without directly associating the blame for hierarchal authoritarianism
with top executives. That is to say that bureaucratic dysfunction plays a key role in the essential
function of the petite bourgeoisie to maintain the bourgeois capitalist system. OTOH, bureaucratic
dysfunction plays a similar key role in all hierarchal authoritarian systems.
Robert Atkinson Pushes Pro-Rich Protectionist Agenda in
the Washington Post
The Washington Post is always open to plans for taking
money from ordinary workers and giving it to the rich. For
this reason it was not surprising to see a piece * by
Robert Atkinson, the head of the industry funded
Information Technology and Innovation Foundation,
advocating for more protectionism in the form of stronger
and longer patent and copyright monopolies.
These monopolies, legacies from the medieval guild
system, can raise the price of the protected items by one
or two orders of magnitudes making them equivalent to
tariffs of several hundred or several thousand percent.
They are especially important in the case of prescription
drugs.
Life-saving drugs that would sell for $200 or $300 in a
free market can sell for tens or even hundreds of
thousands of dollars due to patent protection. The country
will spend over $440 billion this year for drugs that
would likely sell for less than $80 billion in a free
market. The strengthening of these protections is an
important cause of the upward redistribution of the last
four decades. The difference comes to more than $2,700 a
year for an average family. (This is discussed in "Rigged:
How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were
Structured to Make the Rich Richer," ** where I also lay
out alternative mechanisms for financing innovation and
creative work.)
Atkinson makes this argument in the context of the U.S.
relationship with China. He also is explicitly prepared to
have ordinary workers pay the price for this
protectionism. He warns that not following his
recommendation for a new approach to dealing with China,
including forcing them to impose more protection for U.S.
patents and copyrights, would lead to a lower valued
dollar.
Of course a lower valued dollar will make U.S. goods
and services more competitive internationally. That would
mean a smaller trade deficit as we sell more manufactured
goods elsewhere in the world and buy fewer imported goods
in the United States. This could increase manufacturing
employment by 1-2 million, putting upward pressure on the
wages of non-college educated workers.
In short, not following Atkinson's path is likely to
mean more money for less-educated workers, less money for
the rich, and more overall growth, as the economy benefits
from the lessening of protectionist barriers.
"In short, there are good reasons to expect the Fed to keep
singing the same song for the time being. While first-quarter
growth estimates are not yet showing the strength implied by
survey measures of the economy, they also do not yet give the
Fed reason to deviate from its current policy path. With Fed
officials not thinking a rate hike is likely until June,
policy depends more on the evolution of data in the second
quarter than weakness in headline growth for the first
quarter."
This almost seems to say we can see the next recession
coming, and it will be the Fed.
This is from Jamie Dimon's letter to stockholders:
"If the work participation rate for this group [men ages
25-54] went back to just 93% – the current average for the
other developed nations – approximately 10 million more
people would be working in the United States. Some other
highly disturbing facts include: Fifty-seven percent of these
non-working males are on disability"
I don't know where he got the statistic from, but if it is
true it is potent evidence that the main factor behind the 60
year long decline in prime age labor force participation by
men is an increase in those on disability, probably due to
both the expansion of the program, and better longevity and
diagnostics -- and probably also tied in to opiate addiction
as well.
So does Jamie sitting on his mountain of other people's money
have some magic solution that will get this EPOP back to 93%?
I guess if we all bank at JPMorganChase, all will be fine?
C'mon Jamie.
There has been a bit of a discussion on this - most of which
I sort of found unconvincing. Sorry but I am not the expert
on this one. And I doubt Jamie Dimon is not either.
"This is another common explanation for the drop in male
participation. But again it doesn't explain more than a
fraction of the phenomenon.
There's not much doubt that Social Security Disability
Insurance takes people out of the workforce, often by
inelegant design. In order to qualify for disability
payments, people typically have to prove that they cannot
work full-time. SSDI critics say this policy sidelines many
people who might otherwise be able to contribute to the
economy.
But how many people does SSDI really remove? From 1967 to
2014, the share of prime-age men getting disability insurance
rose from 1 percent to 3 percent. There is little chance that
this increase is entirely the result of several million
fraudulent attempts to get money without working. But even if
it were, SSDI would still only explain about one-quarter of
the decline in the male participation rate over that time.
There are many good reasons to reform disability insurance.
But it's not the singular driving force behind the decline of
working men."
For classical economists, it was a factor of production, and the source of "rent."
..............
In reality, however, land and capital are fundamentally distinctive phenomena. Land is permanent,
cannot be produced or reproduced, cannot be 'used up' and does not depreciate. None of these features
apply to capital. Capital goods are produced by humans, depreciate over time due to physical wear
and tear and innovations in technology (think of computers or mobile phones) and they can be replicated.
In any set of national accounts, you will find a sizeable negative number detailing physical
capital stock 'depreciation': net, not gross capital investment is the preferred variable used
in calculating a nations's output. When it comes to land, net and gross values are equal.
machines coal mines hay fields rain forests
glacial lakes these are physical constructs
that society
ie acting at the social level
can capitalize
By adding labor
produces product that exchanges
on markets for more then the labor
costs
Noah Smith says important things in his post. Economists have hidden behind "forecasting is not
our job" defense for too long. I would like to add that as with any model, in sample and out of
sample testing is very important. Economists never do that. The latest attempt to add variables
to explain the events of the last decade is another exercise in over fitting models. Pathetic.
"Macroeconomists typically respond that forecasting isn't their job. The economy has all kinds
of things going on at any given time, they say -- too much randomness and noise to allow a reliable
forecast. The best they can do, macroeconomists will say, is to predict the effects of specific
policies.
This defense is weak. If the economy is dominated by random noise, that noise will also permeate
the data that is used to validate macroeconomic models. If forecasting is impossible, then picking
the right policy-evaluation model will also be impossible. Also, the inability to forecast is
often a clue that a model is just plain wrong."
Can I try another tack? People expect us to be good forecasters. We're not. The old adage applies
- "why do economists forecast? To make the weather man look good".
"My favorite paper in this literature is by Refet Gurkaynak, Burcin Kisacikoglu, and Barbara Rossi.
In 2013, they took some of the most advanced modern macroeconomic models then available -- called
DSGE, for dynamic stochastic general equilibrium -- and tested them against some very simple models
called autoregressive (AR) models."
Noah and I share one thing in common - a certain disdain for these overly complex and highly
unrealistic DSGE models. Of course they missed the Great Recession. Many of them rely on assumptions
that markets are perfect and instantly clear. If one ignore an issue - that issue can come back
to bite you fast.
I share your skepticism of the DSGE models. However, the problems are more basic and applies across
model types.
1) very few papers come up with models to forecast. instead of testing the ability to forecast,
they quantify how well past data is fit. Then they will produce some bogus looking charts of impulse
responses to one variable holding all else equal. The impulse response charts are the most useless
output in econ papers.
2) It is far easier to produce a model with good in sample forecasts. It is far more difficult
to produce true good out of sample forecasts. I have really not seen economists do out of sample
forecasting in an honest way.
Forecasting markets is a fools task
As a scientist
Like alchemy its goal is gold
out of lead
when market systems
are inherently historistic
and thus radically uncertain
at time intervals long enough
to be meaningful
to macro forecasting
If Marxists actually
achieved revolution, how would they govern?
It's hard to tell from the writings of Marx because he
didn't really propose a socialist economy. He spent most
of his time, when writing about socialist organization, in
arguments with other, non-Marxist socialists and
disparaging their ideas. He pooh-poohed Henry George and
treated the German Socialist Party like a stern teacher
would treat a slow student.
Marx and Engels had envisioned their revolution
happening in a developed country like Germany. According
to Engels, the proletariat can only abolish private
ownership when the necessary conditions have been met
(presumably when production has been developed through
capitalism).
In the phase before the abolishment of private
ownership, Engels proposed progressive taxation, high
inheritance taxes and compulsory bond purchases to
restrict private property, while using the competitive
powers of state-owned enterprises to expand the public
sector.
But when the Bolsheviks got their revolution. What did
they do?
Well, that gets messy because the Bolsheviks were
immediately attacked by conservative elements within
Russia and by British, French and American forces.
But we know that the Bolsheviks lost the only election
held after they took power and they then dissolved the
parliament and declared thenselves the only legitimate
party.
And we know the Bolsheviks quashed the factory
committees that had independently sprung-up and installed
party members in factory management. And we know they
established the New Economic Policy (NEP), which Lenin
himself described as "state capitalism", but later
reverted to nationalization and central planning. And, as
we have since learned, the nationalization and central
planning dissolved in 1989.
The Chinese Marxists, having observed the Soviets and
recognizing that China, like the USSR was a backward
country, agreed with Engels that necessary conditions had
to be met. They also considered the Bolshevik NEP to be a
proper step. Thus the Chinese have evolved to a market
economy within central planning, controlled by political
leaders. And from the 1980's until today, the Chinese
economy has out-performed all others.
So that history seems to indicate that when Marxists
attain power and actually have to perform, they find it
necessary to utilize market mechanisms. Chinese leaders
have stated that it would be 100 years before they
achieved true socialism.
At the same time, Marx didn't attain his following for no
reason. Charles Dickens didn't enjoy such popularity
without striking a chord with his readers. Henry George's
"Progress and Poverty" wasn't the most popular book of its
time without cause. When such writers deplored the
wide-spread poverty and inequality associated with
capitalism, they found an eager audience.
So what is the right answer for achieving an economically
utopian society?
"Our Efforts to Deal With Tech Firms' Market Dominance in the U.S.
Have Been an Abject Failure"
: ...Q: The five largest internet and
tech companies-Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft-have
outstanding market share in their markets. Are current antitrust
policies and theories able to deal with the potential problems that
arise from the dominant positions of these companies and the vast data
they collect on users?
Our efforts to deal with the problems in the United States have been
an abject failure. ...I might note that Facebook's dominant position
in the market is due in part to its role as an innovator and partly to
"network externalities"... Microsoft's dominant position is also
attributable in part to network externalities...
But the antitrust agencies have not taken sufficient measures to
remedy abuses of this advantage.
Q: Is there a connection between the growing inequality in the U.S.
and concentration, dominant firms, and winner-take-all markets?
I believe there is. The evidence of rising wealth inequality,
especially through the work of Piketty and co-authors, is compelling.
Less well known is evidence compiled at M.I.T. of strongly rising
inequality of compensation, especially at the top executive levels.
The nexus has not to my knowledge been fully articulated.
Here's my hypothesis: In recent decades, most publicly-traded
corporations, at least in the United States, have embraced executive
compensation consultants to advise the board of directors on executive
compensation levels. Those consultants provide data on compensation
averages and distributions for companies in peer industries. But then
the Lake Wobegon effect goes to work. The boards say, "Surely, our guy
isn't below average," to the average reported by the compensation
consultants becomes the minimum standard for compensation. If each top
executive receives at least the minimum reported pay and often more,
the average rises steadily.
Indeed, and here I tread on weaker ground, those compensation costs
are built into the costs considered by companies in their product
pricing decisions (in a kind of rent-seeking model), and so price
levels rise to accommodate rising compensation. I might note that this
dynamic applies not only for chief executives, but trickles down to
embrace most of companies' management personnel. ...
As I said a couple days ago, "Good to see economists finally
addressing issues that John Kenneth Galbraith raised 50 years
ago...but were largely ignored since then by 'librul'
economists who didn't want to cross the folks who had funded
their academic chairs."
For the past 40 years, corporate
strategic planning has been all about market dominance. Back
in the late 1970s Harvard Business School professor Michael
Porter was all the rage along with the Boston Consulting
Group, Mitt Romney's Bain Capital, and GE's Jack Welch. the
mantra was that if you couldn't dominate a market, best get
out. Weaker players were tolerated mostly to allay anti-trust
intrusion.
Meanwhile, Republicans tacitly supported it, Democrats
turned a blind eye, and 'librul' economists were off doing
whatever they do.
Evidence in support of Sherer's hypothesis can be found in
Tom DiPrete et al's 2010 article in AJS: Compensation
Benchmarking, Leapfrogs, and the Surge in Executive Pay. They
write: "Scholars frequently argue whether the sharp rise in
chief executive officer (CEO) pay in recent years is
"efficient" or is a consequence of "rent extraction" because
of the failure of corporate governance in individual firms.
This article argues that governance failure must be
conceptualized at the market rather than the firm level
because excessive pay increases for even relatively few CEOs
a year spread to other firms through the cognitively and
rhetorically constructed compensation networks of "peer
groups," which are used in the benchmarking process to
negotiate the compensation of CEOs. Counterfactual simulation
based on Standard and Poor's ExecuComp data demonstrates that
the effects of CEO "leapfrogging" potentially explain a
considerable fraction of the overall upward movement of
executive compensation since the early 1990s."
https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/catalog/ac%3A139538
Is there a natural resource curse in finance?
By THORSTEN BECK and STEVEN POELHEKKE
The natural resource curse has featured prominently in discussions on why many developing countries
fail to grow. This curse takes on many flavours - adverse exchange rate effects, underinvestment
in human capital and institutions, political conflict and violence, to name just a few. What about
the effect on the financial sector? The financial sector has been shown to have a critical role in
intermediating domestic savings into domestic investment and in allocating scarce resources effectively,
with positive repercussions for economic growth (Levine, 2005). The financial system should thus
serve as an important absorption tool for windfall gains, such as arising from natural resource rents.
Does it fulfill this role? Previous work has shown that financial systems are less developed in more
resource-rich countries (Beck, 2011), but this could be driven by demand, rather than by a supply-side
related curse.
In recent research, we address the causality challenge by gauging whether natural resource windfalls
are associated with deeper financial intermediation, using a panel dataset of over 150 developed
and developing countries over the period 1970 to 2008. Using a novel methodology to isolate exogenous
changes in natural resource rents and applying structural VAR methods allows us to address concerns
related to cross-country explorations of the relationship between natural resources and financial
development and make statements beyond simply correlations.
Why would there be a natural resource curse in finance? ...
[ There should be no necessary natural resource curse in finance for developing countries. The
actual curse amounts to the failure of natural resource rich developing countries to use capital
controls for extended periods of time. ]
Good point. The Western Consensus
has been that capital controls on the "free movement of capital" is bad and inefficient, just
as government management of "free trade" is bad and inefficient.
(government interference
is bad.)
Mainstream economist pushed this propaganda. But lately the consensus on capital controls
has been changing.
What do you make of the DeLong link? Why do you avoid discussing it?
"...
The lesson from history is not that the robots should be stopped; it is that we will need to
confront the social-engineering and political problem of maintaining a fair balance of relative
incomes across society. Toward that end, our task becomes threefold.
First, we need to make sure that governments carry out their proper macroeconomic role,
by maintaining a stable, low-unemployment economy so that markets can function properly. Second,
we need to redistribute wealth to maintain a proper distribution of income. Our market economy
should promote, rather than undermine, societal goals that correspond to our values and morals.
Finally, workers must be educated and trained to use increasingly high-tech tools (especially
in labor-intensive industries), so that they can make useful things for which there is still
demand.
Sounding the alarm about "artificial intelligence taking American jobs" does nothing to
bring such policies about. Mnuchin is right: the rise of the robots should not be on a treasury
secretary's radar."
Except that Germany and Japan have retained a larger share of workers in manufacturing, despite
more automation. Germany has also retained much more of its manufacturing base than the US
has. The evidence really does point to the role of outsourcing in the US compared with others.
I got an email of some tale that Adidas would start manufacturing in Germany as opposed to
China. Not with German workers but with robots. The author claimed the robots would cost only
$5.50 per hour as opposed to $11 an hour for the Chinese workers. Of course Chinese apparel
workers do not get anywhere close to $11 an hour and the author was not exactly a credible
source.
"The new "Speedfactory" in the southern town of Ansbach near its Bavarian headquarters will
start production in the first half of 2016 of a robot-made running shoe that combines a machine-knitted
upper and springy "Boost" sole made from a bubble-filled polyurethane foam developed by BASF."
Interesting. I thought that "keds" production was already fully automated. Bright colors
are probably the main attraction. But Adidas commands premium price...
Machine-knitted upper is the key -- robots, even sophisticated one, put additional demands
on precision of the parts to be assembled. That's also probably why monolithic molded sole
is chosen. Kind of 3-D printing of shoes.
Robots do not "feel" the nuances of the technological process like humans do.
While I agree that Chinese workers don't get $11 - frequently employee costs are accounted
at a loaded rate (including all benefits - in China would include capital cost of dormitories,
food, security staff, benefits and taxes). I am guessing that a $2-3 an hour wage would result
in an $11 fully loaded rate under those circumstances. Those other costs are not required with
robuts.
I agree with you. The center-left want to exculpate globalization and outsourcing, or free
them from blame, by providing another explanation: technology and robots. They're not just
arguing with Trump.
Brad Setser:
"I suspect the politics around trade would be a bit different in the U.S. if the goods-exporting
sector had grown in parallel with imports.
That is one key difference between the U.S. and Germany. Manufacturing jobs fell during
reunification-and Germany went through a difficult adjustment in the early 2000s. But over
the last ten years the number of jobs in Germany's export sector grew, keeping the number of
people employed in manufacturing roughly constant over the last ten years even with rising
productivity. Part of the "trade" adjustment was a shift from import-competing to exporting
sectors, not just a shift out of the goods producing tradables sector. Of course, not everyone
can run a German sized surplus in manufactures-but it seems likely the low U.S. share of manufacturing
employment (relative to Germany and Japan) is in part a function of the size and persistence
of the U.S. trade deficit in manufactures. (It is also in part a function of the fact that
the U.S. no longer needs to trade manufactures for imported energy on any significant scale;
the U.S. has more jobs in oil and gas production, for example, than Germany or Japan)."
Probably automated 200. In every case, displacing 3/4 of the workers and increasing production
40% while greatly improving quality. Exact same can be said for larger scaled such as automobile
mfg, ...
The convergence of offshoring and automation in such a short time frame meant that instead
of a gradual transformation that might have allowed for more evolutionary economic thinking,
American workers got gobsmacked. The aftermath includes the wage disparity, opiate epidemic,
Trump, ...
This transition is of the scale of the industrial revolution with climate change thrown. This
is just the beginning of great social and economic turmoil. None of the stuff that evolved
specific the industrial revolution applies.
No it was policy driven by politics. They increased profits at the expense of workers and the
middle class. The New Democrats played along with Wall Street.
APR 3, 2017
Artificial Intelligence and Artificial Problems
by J. Bradford DeLong
BERKELEY – Former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers
recently took exception to current US Treasury Secretary
Steve Mnuchin's views on "artificial intelligence" (AI) and
related topics. The difference between the two seems to be,
more than anything else, a matter of priorities and emphasis.
Mnuchin takes a narrow approach. He thinks that the
problem of particular technologies called "artificial
intelligence taking over American jobs" lies "far in the
future." And he seems to question the high stock-market
valuations for "unicorns" – companies valued at or above $1
billion that have no record of producing revenues that would
justify their supposed worth and no clear plan to do so.
Summers takes a broader view. He looks at the "impact of
technology on jobs" generally, and considers the stock-market
valuation for highly profitable technology companies such as
Google and Apple to be more than fair.
I think that Summers is right about the optics of
Mnuchin's statements. A US treasury secretary should not
answer questions narrowly, because people will extrapolate
broader conclusions even from limited answers. The impact of
information technology on employment is undoubtedly a major
issue, but it is also not in society's interest to discourage
investment in high-tech companies.
On the other hand, I sympathize with Mnuchin's effort to
warn non-experts against routinely investing in castles in
the sky. Although great technologies are worth the investment
from a societal point of view, it is not so easy for a
company to achieve sustained profitability. Presumably, a
treasury secretary already has enough on his plate to have to
worry about the rise of the machines.
In fact, it is profoundly unhelpful to stoke fears about
robots, and to frame the issue as "artificial intelligence
taking American jobs." There are far more constructive areas
for policymakers to direct their focus. If the government is
properly fulfilling its duty to prevent a demand-shortfall
depression, technological progress in a market economy need
not impoverish unskilled workers.
This is especially true when value is derived from the
work of human hands, or the work of things that human hands
have made, rather than from scarce natural resources, as in
the Middle Ages. Karl Marx was one of the smartest and most
dedicated theorists on this topic, and even he could not
consistently show that technological progress necessarily
impoverishes unskilled workers.
Technological innovations make whatever is produced
primarily by machines more useful, albeit with relatively
fewer contributions from unskilled labor. But that by itself
does not impoverish anyone. To do that, technological
advances also have to make whatever is produced primarily by
unskilled workers less useful. But this is rarely the case,
because there is nothing keeping the relatively cheap
machines used by unskilled workers in labor-intensive
occupations from becoming more powerful. With more advanced
tools, these workers can then produce more useful things.
Historically, there are relatively few cases in which
technological progress, occurring within the context of a
market economy, has directly impoverished unskilled workers.
In these instances, machines caused the value of a good that
was produced in a labor-intensive sector to fall sharply, by
increasing the production of that good so much as to satisfy
all potential consumers.
The canonical example of this phenomenon is textiles in
eighteenth- and nineteenth-century India and Britain. New
machines made the exact same products that handloom weavers
had been making, but they did so on a massive scale. Owing to
limited demand, consumers were no longer willing to pay for
what handloom weavers were producing. The value of wares
produced by this form of unskilled labor plummeted, but the
prices of commodities that unskilled laborers bought did not.
The lesson from history is not that the robots should be
stopped; it is that we will need to confront the
social-engineering and political problem of maintaining a
fair balance of relative incomes across society. Toward that
end, our task becomes threefold.
First, we need to make sure that governments carry out
their proper macroeconomic role, by maintaining a stable,
low-unemployment economy so that markets can function
properly. Second, we need to redistribute wealth to maintain
a proper distribution of income. Our market economy should
promote, rather than undermine, societal goals that
correspond to our values and morals. Finally, workers must be
educated and trained to use increasingly high-tech tools
(especially in labor-intensive industries), so that they can
make useful things for which there is still demand.
Sounding the alarm about "artificial intelligence taking
American jobs" does nothing to bring such policies about.
Mnuchin is right: the rise of the robots should not be on a
treasury secretary's radar.
The Global Rise of Corporate Saving
By Peter Chen, Loukas Karabarbounis, and Brent Neiman
Abstract
The sectoral composition of global saving changed
dramatically during the last three decades. Whereas in the
early 1980s most of global investment was funded by household
saving, nowadays nearly two-thirds of global investment is
funded by corporate saving. This shift in the sectoral
composition of saving was not accompanied by changes in the
sectoral composition of investment, implying an improvement
in the corporate net lending position. We characterize the
behavior of corporate saving using both national income
accounts and firm-level data and clarify its relationship
with the global decline in labor share, the accumulation of
corporate cash stocks, and the greater propensity for equity
buybacks. We develop a general equilibrium model with product
and capital market imperfections to explore quantitatively
the determination of the flow of funds across sectors.
Changes including declines in the real interest rate, the
price of investment, and corporate income taxes generate
increases in corporate profits and shifts in the supply of
sectoral saving that are of similar magnitude to those
observed in the data.
Are Profits Hurting Capitalism?
By YVES SMITH and ROB PARENTEAU
A STREAM of disheartening economic news last week,
including flagging consumer confidence and meager
private-sector job growth, is leading experts to worry that
the recession is coming back. At the same time, many
policymakers, particularly in Europe, are slashing government
budgets in an effort to lower debt levels and thereby restore
investor confidence, reduce interest rates and promote
growth.
There is an unrecognized problem with this approach:
Reductions in deficits have implications for the private
sector. Higher taxes draw cash from households and
businesses, while lower government expenditures withhold
money from the economy. Making matters worse, businesses are
already plowing fewer profits back into their own
enterprises.
Over the past decade and a half, corporations have been
saving more and investing less in their own businesses. A
2005 report from JPMorgan Research noted with concern that,
since 2002, American corporations on average ran a net
financial surplus of 1.7 percent of the gross domestic
product - a drastic change from the previous 40 years, when
they had maintained an average deficit of 1.2 percent of
G.D.P. More recent studies have indicated that companies in
Europe, Japan and China are also running unprecedented
surpluses.
The reason for all this saving in the United States is
that public companies have become obsessed with quarterly
earnings. To show short-term profits, they avoid investing in
future growth. To develop new products, buy new equipment or
expand geographically, an enterprise has to spend money - on
marketing research, product design, prototype development,
legal expenses associated with patents, lining up contractors
and so on.
Rather than incur such expenses, companies increasingly
prefer to pay their executives exorbitant bonuses, or issue
special dividends to shareholders, or engage in purely
financial speculation. But this means they also short-circuit
a major driver of economic growth.
Some may argue that businesses aren't investing in growth
because the prospects for success are so poor, but American
corporate profits are nearly all the way back to their peak,
right before the global financial crisis took hold.
Another problem for the economy is that, once the crisis
began, families and individuals started tightening their
belts, bolstering their bank accounts or trying to pay down
borrowings (another form of saving).
If households and corporations are trying to save more of
their income and spend less, then it is up to the other two
sectors of the economy - the government and the import-export
sector - to spend more and save less to keep the economy
humming. In other words, there needs to be a large trade
surplus, a large government deficit or some combination of
the two. This isn't a matter of economic theory; it's based
in simple accounting.
What if a government instead embarks on an austerity
program? Income growth will stall, and household wages and
business profits may fall....
On the one hand, the VoxEU article does a fine job of
assembling long-term data on a global basis. It demonstrates
that the corporate savings glut is long standing and that is
has been accompanied by a decline in personal savings.
However, it fails to depict what an unnatural state of
affairs this is. The corporate sector as a whole in
non-recessionary times ought to be net spending, as in
borrowing and investing in growth. As a market-savvy buddy
put it, "If a company isn't investing in the business of its
business, why should I?" I attributed the corporate savings
trend in the US as a result of the fixation of quarterly
earnings, which sources such as McKinsey partners with a
broad view of the firms' projects were telling me was killing
investment (any investment will have an income statement
impact too, such as planning, marketing, design, and start up
expenses). This post, by contrast, treats this development as
lacking in any agency. Labor share of GDP dropped and savings
rose. They attribute that to lower interest rates over time.
They again fail to see that as the result of power dynamics
and political choices....
"General Dynamics christens U.S. Navy's USS Thomas Hudner"
By Ryan Maass...April 5, 2017...11:34 AM
"April 5 (UPI) -- General Dynamics Bath Iron Works christened the U.S. Navy's future Arleigh Burke-class
guided-missile destroyer USS Thomas Hudner during a ceremony.
The christening took place at Bath Iron Works' shipyard on Saturday, and was attended by the ship's
namesake, Capt. Thomas Hudner. During the Korean War, Hudner intentionally crash-landed his plane
to save Ensign Jesse Brown, the first African-American Navy pilot...
The christening comes almost two after the keel for the vessel was laid down in Bath, Maine. The
Navy expects to commission the ship in Boston in 2018.
Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyers are multirole surface ships built to engage threats
in all directions. The vessels can be used to support anti-air warfare as well as anti-submarine
warfare. They can operate independently or as part of larger groups."
Years behind in replacing Arleigh
Burkes*. Nothing replacing the Ticonderoga class cruisers.
Two more hulls and the Arleigh
Burkes class gets an upgrade, designated "Flight III" about 1000 more tons, 4 ft wider stern,
and if it works (might use some new materials GaNi chips) a new radar replacing the 40 year
old Aegis.
The extra weight is to make room for air conditioners to keep all the denser electronics
cool.
The Navy lost Zumwalt (DD 1000) at 3 ships and never got a chance for bigger cruiser class
ships.
A serious compromise and risky proposition with air and missile defenses that are questionable
from the outset.
*there seems to be about 17 new hulls for Arleigh Burke with the last 15 being new "Flt
III" for the newer radar. I see s schedule issue!
Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final
sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed.
This world in arms is not spending money alone.
It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its
children.
The cost of one modern heavy bomber is this: a modern brick school in more than 30 cities.
It is two electric power plants, each serving a town of 60,000 population.
It is two fine, fully equipped hospitals. It is some 50 miles of concrete highway.
We pay for a single fighter plane with a half million bushels of wheat.
We pay for a single destroyer with new homes that could have housed more than 8,000 people.
This, I repeat, is the best way of life to be found on the road the world has been taking.
This is not a way of life at all, in any true sense. Under the cloud of threatening war,
it is humanity hanging from a cross of iron.
Fed's Lacker Quits Today After Improper Disclosure: NY Times Richmond Fed president, Jeff Lacker, says he is resigning effective today after improperly disclosing
confidential Fed information, NY Times said in tweet.
Fed President involved in disclosing future QE to analyst at firm selling research to hedge funds.
In other places, this is called insider information. At the Fed? I am shocked there is gambling
at this establishment.
We need to clean house at the Fed. Starting at the top.
During the past 13 years it has been my privilege to serve as President of the Federal Reserve
Bank of Richmond. It has also been an honor to contribute to the development of our nation's
monetary policy as a member of the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee ("FOMC").
While transparency of the monetary policy process is important, equally important are the confidentiality
policies that protect the internal deliberations of the FOMC and ensure the integrity of our
financial markets. The Federal Reserve's confidentiality policies seek to guide participants
in maintaining the balance between transparency and confidentiality. The FOMC has had in place
for many years two specific policies relating to confidentiality. the FOMC Policy on External
Communications of Committee Participants (the "External Communications Policy-) and the Program
for Security of FOMC Information (the "Information Security Policy").
In 2012, my conduct was inconsistent with those important confidentiality policies. Specifically,
on October 2, 2012, I spoke by phone with an analyst ("the Analyst") concerning the September
2012 meeting of the FOMC. The Analyst authors reports on Federal Reserve matters on behalf
of Medley Global Advisors ("Medley'). Medley publishes macro-economic policy intelligence for
institutions such as hedge funds and asset managers and is owned by the Financial Times Limited.
During that October 2, 2012 discussion, the Analyst introduced into the conversation an important
non-public detail about one of the policy options considered by participants prior to the meeting.
Due to the highly confidential and sensitive nature of this information, I should have declined
to comment and perhaps have ended the phone call. Instead, I did not refuse or express my inability
to comment and the interview continued. Additionally, after that phone call I did not, as required
by the Information Security Policy, report to any FOMC personnel that the Analyst was in possession
of confidential FOMC information. When Medley published a report by the Analyst the following
day, October 3, 2012, it contained this important detail about one of the policy options and
I realized that my failure to decline comment on the information could have been taken by the
Analyst, in the context of the conversation, as an acknowledgment or confirmation of the information.
I deeply regret the role I may have played in confirming this confidential information and
in its dissemination to Medley's subscribers. In this episode, as in all of my communications
with analysts, journalists and the public, it was never my intention to reveal confidential
information. I further acknowledge that through this and other conversations with the Analyst,
I may have contravened the External Communications Policy, which prohibits providing any profit-making
person or organization with a prestige advantage over its competitors.
Following these events, I was interviewed on December 10, 2012, as part of an internal review
conducted by the General Counsel of the FOMC. In advance of that interview, on December 6,
2012, I provided written responses to a questionnaire issued by the General Counsel seeking,
among other things, all relevant information regarding my communications with the Analyst.
Althoug it was my intention to cooperate fully with the internal review, I regret that I did
not disclose to the General Counsel, either in my December 6, 2012 questionnaire or the December
10, 2012 interview, that the Analyst was in possession of confidential information during my
conversation with her on October 2,2012.
In 2015, I was interviewed again as part of a separate investigation conducted by the United
States Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York, the Office of the Inspector
General of the Federal Reserve Board, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, and the U.S. Commodity
Futures Trading Commission. In this subsequent 2015 interview with law enforcement officials,
I did disclose that the Analyst was in possession of confidential information during my October
2. 2012 conversation with her.
I apologize to my colleagues and to the public I have been privileged to serve. I have always
strived to maintain the appropriate balance between transparency and confidentiality, but I
regret that in this instance I crossed the line to confirming information that should have
remained confidential. I previously announced my intention to retire as President of the Federal
Reserve Bank of Richmond in October 2017, and in light of these matters I have decided to make
my departure from the Federal Reserve effective today.
"Despite the large increase in U.S. income inequality,
consumption for families at the 25th and 50th percentiles of
income has grown steadily over the time period 1960-2015. The
number of cars per household with below median income has
doubled since 1980 and the number of bedrooms per household
has grown 10 percent despite decreases in household size. The
finding of zero growth in American real wages since the 1970s
is driven in part by the choice of the CPI-U as the price
deflator; small biases in any price deflator compound over
long periods of time. Using a different deflator such as the
Personal Consumption Expenditures index (PCE) yields modest
growth in real wages and in median household incomes
throughout the time period. Accounting for the Hamilton
(1998) and Costa (2001) estimates of CPI bias yields
estimated wage growth of 1 percent per year during 1975-2015.
Meaningful growth in consumption for below median income
families has occurred even in a prolonged period of
increasing income inequality, increasing consumption
inequality and a decreasing share of national income accruing
to labor."
Yes progress was made from 1960 to 1975. But what after
that? To dismiss the rise in inequality by saying one can
reconfigure the CPI index is Heritage level nonsense.
"... He didn't win the money race, but Donald Trump will be the next president of the U.S. In the primaries and general election, he defied conventional wisdom, besting better financed candidates by dominating the air waves for free. Trump also put to use his own cash, as well as the assets and infrastructure of his businesses, in unprecedented fashion. He donated $66 million of his own money, flew across the country in his private jet, and used his resorts to stage campaign events. ..."
"... At the same time, the billionaire was able to draw about $280 million from small donors giving $200 or less. ..."
"... Trump won the presidency despite having raised less than any major party presidential nominee since John McCain in 2008, the last to accept federal funds to pay for his general election contest. ..."
"... Clinton and her super-PACs raised a total of $1.2 billion, less than President Barack Obama raised in 2012. ..."
"... There still is a difference between the two parties, which was on philosophical rather than ideological grounds never a very stark contrast to begin with. ..."
"... The Constitution itself needs a bit more work. Campaign finance, reasonable Congressional term limits, gerrymandering, ranked (a.k.a., preferential or instant runoff) voting, and popular petition/referendum powers for the electorate to overturn SCOTUS decisions would in combination make our republic far more democratic than it is now. That would require a national solidarity movement to impose its will on the two party system, perhaps by not re=electing anyone until the work is done. ..."
[Your initial premise is well taken. Trump spent a lot of his own money and used a lot of his
own resources, but relied more on small donors than Hillary did.]
He didn't win the money race, but Donald Trump will be the next president of the U.S. In the
primaries and general election, he defied conventional wisdom, besting better financed candidates
by dominating the air waves for free. Trump also put to use his own cash, as well as the assets
and infrastructure of his businesses, in unprecedented fashion. He donated $66 million of his
own money, flew across the country in his private jet, and used his resorts to stage campaign
events.
At the same time, the billionaire was able to draw about $280 million from small donors
giving $200 or less.
Super-PACs, which can take contributions unlimited in size, were similarly
skewed toward his opponent, Hillary Clinton. Ultimately, Trump won the presidency despite having
raised less than any major party presidential nominee since John McCain in 2008, the last to accept
federal funds to pay for his general election contest.
Clinton and her super-PACs raised a total of $1.2 billion, less than President Barack Obama
raised in 2012. Her sophisticated fundraising operation included a small army of wealthy donors
who wrote seven-figure checks, hundreds of bundlers who raised $100,000 or more from their own
networks, and a small-dollar donor operation modeled on the one used by Obama in 2012. She spent
heavily on television advertising and her get-out-the-vote operation, but in the end, her fundraising
edge wasn't enough to overcome Trump's ability to dominate headlines and the airwaves...
[OTOH, elections do still matter. There still is a difference between the two parties, which was
on philosophical rather than ideological grounds never a very stark contrast to begin with.
Bankers and proto-industrialist to the North and slave-owners to the South was the original
demarcation of the split in triangulating the electorate. When slave-owners became an extinct
species then Republicans mostly ran the whole show for a while, but Democrats eventually acquired
enough business from immigrants and unions while reinventing the plantation economy in Jim Crow
to remain in the game. When the Republican Party gave those pesky progressives the boot then the
Democratic Party had a progressive moment itself during its pick up game generally known as the
New Deal, but then that passed on to identity politics, which was a lot cheaper product to sell
than better wages for labor.
Politics under the US Constitution has always been an uphill struggle. So, let's not quit while
we are losing. Primary elections need to get more attention and participation. The Tea Party has
really changed primaries for the Republican Party albeit a change of questionable merit. In VA
(my state) the Tea Party seems to have benefited the Democratic Party far more than Republicans,
but local results may vary.
The Constitution itself needs a bit more work. Campaign finance, reasonable Congressional term
limits, gerrymandering, ranked (a.k.a., preferential or instant runoff) voting, and popular petition/referendum
powers for the electorate to overturn SCOTUS decisions would in combination make our republic
far more democratic than it is now. That would require a national solidarity movement to impose
its will on the two party system, perhaps by not re=electing anyone until the work is done.]
"... Trump at least was offering the economically devastated Americans a slight chance to improve their standard of living and get better jobs. That assuming that he keep his promises, which, of course, is not given. But why one should not give him a benefit of doubt, if Hillary was all about the kicking the neoliberalism can down the road? ..."
"... Most people voted for Trump not because they liked him, but out of despair knowing that the Hillary will betray all her promises the next day after the elections like Obama did and will behave like a female clone of John McCain in foreign policy. ..."
"... In other words, by electing Trump most Americans lost nothing since Clinton would pursue the same pro top 1% policies, just with a larger doze of hypocrisy. ..."
"Terry McAuliffe Has A Very Clintonian Plan For Democrats
To Win Back Power"
'It's still the economy, stupid'
By Sam Stein...04/03/2017...07:05 pm ET
"Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe has a two-pronged strategy
for his fellow Democrats to regain power in the age of Trump:
Don't get distracted by the chaos and prioritize the states.
In an interview with The Huffington Post, McAuliffe called
on Democrats to simplify their message down to its most
fundamental, Clintonian core. For all the talk of Russian
connections, disorganization and dubious ethics, McAuliffe
argued, voters care most about the economy. Democrats would
be wise to explain how President Donald Trump is failing them
on that front.
"Don't chase the shiny objects," McAuliffe said, advising
those running for office. "The public is sick of people
picking partisan fights for the sake of fights. I don't pick
fights with Trump for the sake of picking arguments. I am one
of his most vocal critics because, as I've said, this man is
a one-man wrecking crew to my economy."..."
Economics, like PPACA idolaters, is a red [no change DNC]
herring.
In 2018, it will be reconstituting the US' Bill of
Rights and who pulled the redaction off the names the NKDV/NSA
picked up in the politically directed wire tapping (euphemism
for violating citizens privacy rights) to be used for
politics and attempting a coup.
Your Monday morning quarterbacking missed the key three
points about the Democratic Party. DemoRats:
1. Betrayed
the left
2. Betrayed the New Deal
3. Became a second pro-war, pro-Wall Street Party.
Trump at least was offering the economically
devastated Americans a slight chance to improve their
standard of living and get better jobs. That assuming that he
keep his promises, which, of course, is not given. But why
one should not give him a benefit of doubt, if Hillary was
all about the kicking the neoliberalism can down the road?
The only segment of population that would be better under
Hillary are retirees as they are out of job market anyway,
but this is not what the majority of population wants. They
want jobs.
Most people voted for Trump not because they liked
him, but out of despair knowing that the Hillary will betray
all her promises the next day after the elections like Obama
did and will behave like a female clone of John McCain in
foreign policy.
John McCain was rejected by voters, if I remember
correctly.
In other words, by electing Trump most Americans lost
nothing since Clinton would pursue the same pro top 1%
policies, just with a larger doze of hypocrisy.
Neoliberal, dominated by Clinton wing Democratic Party is
done, as they have nothing to offer to the voters. They are
history.
International Trade Lessons for the New York Times
The New York Times told readers * that Mexico is preparing to "play the corn card" in its negotiations
with Donald Trump. The piece warns:
"Now corn has taken on a new role - as a powerful lever for Mexican officials in the run-up
to talks over Nafta, the North American Free Trade Agreement.
"The reason: Much of the corn that Mexico consumes comes from the United States, making it
America's top agricultural export to its southern neighbor. And even though President Trump appears
to be pulling back from his vows to completely overhaul Nafta, Mexico has taken his threats to
heart and has begun flexing its own muscle.
"The Mexican government is exploring buying its corn elsewhere - including Argentina or Brazil
- as well as increasing domestic production. In a fit of political pique, a Mexican senator even
submitted a bill to eliminate corn purchases from the United States within three years."
It then warns of the potential devastation from this threat:
"The prospect that the United States could lose its largest foreign market for corn and other
key products has shaken farming communities throughout the American Midwest, where corn production
is a vital part of the economy. The threat is particularly unsettling for many residents of the
Corn Belt because much of the region voted overwhelmingly for Mr. Trump in the presidential election.
" 'If we lose Mexico as a customer, it will be absolutely devastating to the ag economy,' said
Philip Gordon, 68, who grows corn, soybeans and wheat on a farm in Saline, Mich., that has been
in his family for 140 years."
Okay, I hate to spoil a good scare story with a dose of reality, but let's think this one through
for a moment. According to the piece, instead of buying corn from the United States, Mexico might
buy it from Argentina or Brazil. So, we'll lose our Mexican market to these two countries.
But who is buying corn from Argentina and Brazil now? If this corn had previously been going
to other countries, then presumably these other countries will be looking to buy corn from someone
else, like perhaps U.S. farmers?
It is of course possible that Argentina and Brazil will switch production away from other crops
to corn to meet Mexico's demand, but that would likely leave openings in these other crops for
U.S. farmers. The transition to new markets for corn crops or a switch from corn to the crops
vacated by Brazil and Argentina would not be costless, but it also may not imply the sort of devastation
promised by the New York Times.
See, market economies are flexible. This is something that economists know, as should reporters
who write on economic issues. This may undermine scare stories that are being told to push an
agenda, but life is tough.
Not mentioned is that Mexico is the home of corn, that thousands of farmers who used to make their
livings raising native corns lost their farms to market rate competition from the USA under NAFTA.
PGL puts the blame on Yeltsin and this is what Stiglitz writes:
"I believe what we are confronting is partly the legacy of the flawed Washington Consensus that shaped Russia's transition.
This framework's influences was reflected in the tremendous emphasis reformers placed on privatization, no matter how it was done,
with speed taking precedence over everything else, including creating the institutional infrastructure needed to make a market
economy work."
Larry Summers and Jeffrey Sachs were involved in this. It would be nice if they wrote mea culpas.
"Many in Russia believe that the US Treasury pushed Washington Consensus policies to weaken their country. The deep corruption
of the Harvard University team chosen to "help" Russia in its transition, described in a detailed account published in 2006 by
Institutional Investor, reinforced these beliefs.
I believe the explanation was less sinister: flawed ideas, even with the best of intentions, can have serious consequences.
And the opportunities for self-interested greed offered by Russia were simply too great for some to resist. Clearly, democratization
in Russia required efforts aimed at ensuring shared prosperity, not policies that led to the creation of an oligarchy."
Just look at what the West did to Iraq. Like Stiglitz I think it is more incompetence and ideology than a sinister plan to
destroy Iraq and Russia. And we are reaping the results of that incompetence.
2008 was also incompetence, greed and ideology not some plot to push through "shock doctrines."
If the one percent were smart they would slowly cook the frog in the pot, where the frog doesn't notice, instead of having
these crises which backfire.
I believe what we are confronting is partly the legacy of the flawed Washington Consensus that shaped Russia's transition.
This framework's influences was reflected in the tremendous emphasis reformers placed on privatization, no matter how it was done,
with speed taking precedence over everything else, including creating the institutional infrastructure needed to make a market
economy work....
The term Washington Consensus was coined in 1989 by English economist John Williamson to refer to a set of 10 relatively specific
economic policy prescriptions that he considered constituted the "standard" reform package promoted for crisis-wracked developing
countries by Washington, D.C.–based institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and the US Treasury
Department. The prescriptions encompassed policies in such areas as macroeconomic stabilization, economic opening with respect
to both trade and investment, and the expansion of market forces within the domestic economy.
Fiscal policy discipline, with avoidance of large fiscal deficits relative to GDP;
Redirection of public spending from subsidies toward broad-based provision of key pro-growth, pro-poor services like primary
education, primary health care and infrastructure investment;
Tax reform, broadening the tax base and adopting moderate marginal tax rates;
Interest rates that are market determined and positive (but moderate) in real terms;
Competitive exchange rates;
Trade liberalization: liberalization of imports, with particular emphasis on elimination of quantitative restrictions (licensing,
etc.); any trade protection to be provided by low and relatively uniform tariffs;
Liberalization of inward foreign direct investment;
Privatization of state enterprises;
Deregulation: abolition of regulations that impede market entry or restrict competition, except for those justified on
safety, environmental and consumer protection grounds, and prudential oversight of financial institutions;
PGL blames Yeltsin but even Stiglitz writes that it was the Washington Consensus which was to blame for the poor transition and
disastrous collapse of Russia. Now we are reaping the consequences. Just like with Syria, ISIL and Iraq.
Suppose though the matter with privatization is not so much speed but not understanding what should not be subject to privatizing,
such as soft and hard infrastructure.
That a Washington Consensus approach to Russian development proved obviously faulty is important because I would argue the approach
has repeatedly proved faulty from Brazil to South Africa to the Philippines... When the consensus has been turned away from as
in Brazil for several years the development results have dramatically changed but turning from the approach which allows for severe
concentrations of wealth has proved politically difficult as we find now in Brazil.
The range in real per capita GDP growth from 1990 to 2015 extends from 15.8% to 19.8% to 41.1% to 223.1% to 789.1%. This range
needs to be thoroughly analyzed in terms of reflective policy.
The range in total factor productivity growth or decline from 1990 to 2014 extends from a decline of - 16.9% to - 12.2% to - 5.1%
to growth of 40.9% and 76.4%. Again, this range needs to be thoroughly analyzed in terms of reflective policy.
The persuasiveness of the Washington Consensus approach to development strikes me as especially well illustrated by the repeated,
decades-long insistence by Western economists that Chinese development is about to come to a crashing end. The insistence continues
with an almost daily repetition in the likes of The Economist or Financial Times.
I would suggest the success of China thoroughly studied provides us with remarkable policy prescriptions.
"... Too much liberal swamp gas [In Stiglitz's book] ..."
"... I love joe. His technical intuition is peerless. But he is mushy at heart. Social values involved. Unlike say chomsky ..."
"... It may eventually prove to be generous to describe Russia's misfortune as "the legacy of the flawed Washington Consensus that
shaped Russia's transition" according to Stiglitz. It may prove rather to be "the legacy of *intentionally* flawed consensus". ..."
I've been encouraging folks to read his 1997 book - in particular chapter 5. When I do, the Usual Suspects decided to attack by
questioning Stiglitz's credential.
One of them cited Wikipedia noting it relied on World Bank research. Of course, Stiglitz headed the World Bank back then. Go
figure.
It may eventually prove to be generous to describe Russia's misfortune as "the legacy of the flawed Washington Consensus that
shaped Russia's transition" according to Stiglitz. It may prove rather to be "the legacy of *intentionally* flawed consensus".
This FT -- the most deep neoliberal swamp among mainstream newspaper. So they do not like any
critique of thier beloved neloneral world order with the dominance of reckless financial oligarchy
as one of the key components.
Notable quotes:
"... She argues that under our deregulated financial system "commercial bankers can create credit . . . effectively without limit, and with few regulatory constraints." She says that because the government and central banks impose no restrictions on what credit is used for, banks increasingly lend for speculative activities, rather than "sound, productive investment". ..."
"... The collateral for this borrowing is in the form of "promises to pay", which can "evaporate" and be defaulted upon - which risks dragging down the rest of the system. ..."
"... many of the remedies Pettifor recommends are, as she acknowledges, fairly mainstream: monitoring the evolution of credit relative to national income, limiting loan-to-value mortgage ratios more strictly, imposing stronger regulation on banks and issuing government debt at low interest rates across the maturity spectrum. ..."
"... Less mainstream are her calls for controls on international capital flows through a Tobin tax on financial transactions, and for central banks to "manage exchange rates over a specified range by buying and selling currency". ..."
"... its confrontational style - criticising financial market players, most economists, politicians and ideas from other left-leaning economists ..."
'The Production of Money', by Ann Pettifor - a financial education
16 HOURS AGO by: Review by Gemma Tetlow
Ann Pettifor's The Production of Money, is a work in three parts. It provides an explanation
of how money and credit are created in modern economies and of some of the problems that helped
foment the financial crisis. The author, an economist, then sets out her views on how these problems
should be fixed, including introducing controls on international capital flows. Finally, and less
obviously from the title, the book strays into a critique of fiscal austerity.
"Citizens," Pettifor argues, "were unprepared for the [financial] crisis, and remain on the
whole ignorant of the workings of the financial system." This is one reason why policymakers have
failed to address its failings. One of her objectives is to "simplify key concepts in relation
to money, finance and economics, and to make them accessible to a much wider audience".
Chapter two provides a clear, intuitive explanation of how money is created and how this can
facilitate economic growth. Money creation is a complex and intangible concept in a world where
it is no longer backed by gold bars held by the central bank, and Pettifor provides the most accessible
and thorough explanation I have seen.
In the rest of the book, the author sets out her diagnosis of the problems afflicting the world's
monetary system and her prescription for how they should be fixed. She argues that under our deregulated
financial system "commercial bankers can create credit . . . effectively without limit, and with
few regulatory constraints." She says that because the government and central banks impose no
restrictions on what credit is used for, banks increasingly lend for speculative activities, rather
than "sound, productive investment".
The collateral for this borrowing is in the form of "promises to pay", which can "evaporate"
and be defaulted upon - which risks dragging down the rest of the system.
The description is informative as far as it goes. However, it does not provide the sort of
compelling, insightful account of the problems before the crisis that is provided by, for example,
Michael Lewis in The Big Short.
She strikes a revolutionary tone when setting out the problem. But many of the remedies Pettifor
recommends are, as she acknowledges, fairly mainstream: monitoring the evolution of credit relative
to national income, limiting loan-to-value mortgage ratios more strictly, imposing stronger regulation
on banks and issuing government debt at low interest rates across the maturity spectrum.
Less mainstream are her calls for controls on international capital flows through a Tobin tax
on financial transactions, and for central banks to "manage exchange rates over a specified range
by buying and selling currency".
Her support for these measures is consistent with her belief - expressed throughout the book
- that everything was well until the global financial system began to liberalise following the
breakdown of the Bretton Woods system in 1971.
The evidence she provides to support her belief that policies in place during the Bretton Woods
era were superior to those operating now appears rather selective. She cites data presented in
Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff's book, This Time is Different, as evidence that "financial
crises proliferated" after the 1970s. However, Reinhart and Rogoff's thesis was that we have been
here before in centuries past - and will be again.
The Production of Money presents one view of issues afflicting the world's financial systems
and how they should be dealt with, and will be useful to readers unfamiliar with these issues.
But in other places it provides a partial or rather confusing descriptions of aspects of the monetary
system. Saying the global economy "is once again at risk of slipping into recession" and faces
"deflation" are statements that have aged badly.
This book will help the public "develop a much greater understanding" of how banking and financial
systems work. However, its confrontational style - criticising financial market players, most
economists, politicians and ideas from other left-leaning economists - may put some readers off
before they get to the meat of the argument. The characterisations of these groups' views are
selective and her criticisms are at times not well supported by the evidence she presents.
"... he never lost his aversion for the 'economism' that presumes that matters of public policy, employment, ecology and culture can be interpreted mainly in terms of mathematical abstractions. ..."
"... Lean Logic: A Dictionary for the Future and How to Survive It ..."
"... Tomorrow's World ..."
"... So in an economy like ours, a technological advance that doubles the amount of useful work a person can do in a day becomes a problem rather than a benefit. It tends to put half the workers out of work, turning them into a potential drain on the state. ..."
"... Tomorrow's World ..."
"... Lean Logic ..."
"... Surviving the Future: Culture, Carnival and Capital in the Aftermath of the Market Economy ..."
"... Didn't residents keep on doing whatever they were doing when the Vesuvius erupted ..."
"... As a dispirited milennial myself, it seems that the best option for me is to cut loose, live somewhere cheap and warm, enjoy nature and some friendly neighbors and watch this apocalypse unfold. ..."
"... News from Nowhere ..."
"... Illegitimi non carborundum ..."
"... During my time as a retail worker it struck me how much of effective customer service was really an unpaid use of our spontaneous urge to give aid to other people, to respond to their needs as human beings. ..."
"... We were often in the position of spiking the SOP of the business to get them what they wanted. It hit me then how much the ostensible money economy is a free rider on the world of our human non-economic lives, or is like free clean water used in an industrial process. ..."
As my friend David
Fleming once wrote, conventional economics 'puts the grim into reality.'
Something of a radical, back in the 1970s Fleming was involved in the early days of what is now
the Green Party of England and Wales. Frustrated by the mainstream's limited engagement with ecological
thinking, he urged his peers to learn the language and concepts of economics in order to confound
the arguments of their opponents.
By the time I met Fleming in 2006, he had practised what he preached and earned himself a PhD
in Economics. But he never lost his aversion for the 'economism' that presumes that matters of
public policy, employment, ecology and culture can be interpreted mainly in terms of mathematical
abstractions.
Worse, he noted that even the word ' economics' has the power to make these life-defining
topics seem impenetrable, none-of-our-business and, of all things, boring . Fleming's work
was all about returning them to their rightful owners-those whose lives are shaped by them, meaning
all of us.
Fleming was a key influence on the birth of the
New Economics Foundation and
Transition
Towns movement , but it was only in the aftermath of his sudden death in 2010 that I discovered
the breadth of the powerfully-different vision of economics that underpinned his life. On his home
computer I discovered a manuscript for the book he had been preparing to publish after thirty years'
work entitled
Lean Logic: A Dictionary for the Future and How to Survive It .
Reminding us that our present growth-based market economy has only been around for a couple of
hundred years (and is already hitting the buffers), Fleming's lifework looks to the great majority
of human history for insight: "We know what we need to do,"
he writes , "We need to build the sequel, to draw on inspiration which has lain dormant, like
the seed beneath the snow."
What he found was that-in the absence of a perpetually-growing economy- community and culture are key. He quotes, for example,
the historian Juliet Schor's view of working life in the Middle Ages:
"The medieval calendar was filled with holidays These were spent both in sober churchgoing
and in feasting, drinking and merrymaking All told, holiday leisure time in medieval England
took up probably about one third of the year. And the English were apparently working harder than
their neighbors. The a ncien régime in France is reported to have guaranteed fifty-two
Sundays, ninety rest days, and thirty-eight holidays. In Spain, travelers noted that holidays
totaled five months per year."
Reading this took me back to a childhood fed by TV programmes like the BBC's Tomorrow's World
, which had informed me that by now robots would be doing all the menial work, leaving humans
free to relax and enjoy an abundance of leisure time. So it came as a shock to realise that the good
folk of the Middle Ages were enjoying far more of it than we are in our technologically-advanced
society. What gives?
Fleming explains
,
"In a competitive market economy a large amount of roughly-equally-shared leisure time – say,
a three-day working week, or less – is hard to sustain, because any individuals who decide to
instead work a full week can produce for a lower price (by working longer hours than the competition
they can produce a greater quantity of goods and services, and thus earn the same wage by selling
each one more cheaply). These more competitive people would then be fully employed, and would
put the more leisurely out of business completely. This is what puts the grim into reality."
So in an economy like ours, a technological advance that doubles the amount of useful work
a person can do in a day becomes a problem rather than a benefit. It tends to put half the workers
out of work, turning them into a potential drain on the state.
Of course, in theory all the workers could just work half-time and still produce all that is needed,
much as Tomorrow's World predicted. But in practice they are often afraid of having their
pay cut, or losing their jobs to a stranger who is willing to work longer hours, so they can't take
the steps needed to solve their collective economic problems and enjoy more leisurely lives. Instead,
people are kept busy partly through what anthropologist David Graeber memorably characterised as
" bullshit jobs ."
How, then, can we feed, house and support ourselves without working as relentlessly as we do today?
Fleming's work explores the answer, making a rigorous case that we need to get beyond mainstream
economists' ideas of minimising 'spare labour' if we are to sustain a post-growth economy. This 'spare
labour' is what most of us would call spare time-a welcome part of a life well lived rather than
a 'problem of unemployment.'
He highlights that the holidays of former times were far from a product of laziness. Rather
they were, in an important sense, what men and women lived for . 'Spare time' spent in feasting,
performing, collaborating and merrymaking together formed the basis of community bonding and membership.
Those shared cultural ties hold people together, even in the absence of economic growth and full-time
employment. When productivity improves,
as one of
his readers put it , "in our system you have a problem, in Fleming's system you have a party."
Under the current economic paradigm, the only way to keep unemployment from rising to the point
where the population can't be supported is through endless economic growth, which thus becomes an
obligation. So we are damned if we grow and damned if we don't, since endless growth will eventually
cross every conceivable biophysical boundary and destroy the planet's ability to support us. That's
why, in practice, we just keep growing and cross our fingers that somehow it will all work out.
As Fleming writes :
"The reduction of a society and culture to dependence on mathematical abstraction has infantilised
a grown-up civilisation and is well on the way to destroying it. Civilisations self-destruct anyway,
but it is reasonable to ask whether they have done so before with such enthusiasm, in obedience
to such an acutely absurd superstition, while claiming with such insistence that they were beyond
being seduced by the irrational promises of religion."
Technological fixes do not help, as we are all discovering to our cost. We are already working
ever harder, and with ever more advanced technologies, yet the hope of a better future dwindles day-by-day.
Take heart though, for when the current paradigm transparently provides nothing but a dead end, we
can be sure that we are on the cusp of a fundamental shift.
Fleming provides a radical but historically-proven alternative: focusing neither on the growth
or de-growth of the market economy, but the huge expansion of the 'informal' or non-monetary economy-the
'core economy' that allows our society to exist, even today. This is the economy of what we love:
of the things we naturally do when not otherwise compelled, of music, play, family, volunteering,
activism, friendship and home.
At present, this core non-monetary economy is much weakened, pushed out and wounded by the invasion
of the market. Fleming's work demonstrates that nurturing it back to health is not just some quaint
and obsolete sharing longing but an absolute practical priority.
The key challenge of today, for Fleming, is to repair the atrophied social structures on which
most human cultures have been built; to rediscover how to rely on each other rather than on money
alone. Then life after the painful yet inevitable end to the growth of the monetary economy will
start to seem feasible again, and our technological progress can bring us the fruits it always promised.
It's increasingly clear that this is the conversation we all need to have, and Fleming's compelling,
grounded vision of a post-growth world is rare in its ability to inspire optimism in the creativity
and intelligence of human beings to nurse our economy, ecology and culture back to health. I am proud
to have played a part in bringing it to the world; in fact, it might just be the best thing I have
done.
The thing of it is, we have had growth except for recessions every 10 years or so. But somewhere
along the line, due to the fact that we can never speak of "DISTRIBUTION" of this growth, we get
the completely artificial idea that the lower income can ONLY be helped by higher growth. Economics
has a nice scam going – only if the rich get much richer can anything be done for the 90%.
And we're told (by the rich) that this is just "natural" – a law of nature .Yeah, back when
the church owned everything the priests told us it was God who wanted it that way. Now the economic
priests tell us its nature that wants it this way
I am increasingly of the view that we conflate two entirely different ideas, or that we don't
emphasize enough that there are two fundamentally different critiques, when we challenge economists'
reliance on "growth." I'm not opposed to the notion of 'steady-state' economics. But it seems
presumptuous TSTL for Americans (famously 5% of the world's population using 25% of the world's
resources), really 'first-world'ers in general, to say, "OK, no more growth and time to stay within
in our limits, and by the way I'm good with what I've got." So I think there is a lot more work
that has to be done to make that concept appropriate in a reality-based sense.
Whereas, even though Marxists have often tended toward productivist notions of economic growth
that share many problematic features of capitalist growth, there is a deconstruction of capitalist,
and neoclassical depictions of, economic growth that is not by definition anti-community or anti-planet.
While the fundamental issues are power and control, they are perhaps most easily understood through
measurement – specifically what capitalists and their economists choose to measure as growth and
what they choose to ignore or take for granted. Why is paying someone else to take care of your
kid considered 'economic activity,' a provider of 'jobs,' a contributor to economic growth, but
raising your own kid is not? Actually, working at McDonald's while you pay someone to raise your
kid counts as two jobs, while raising your own kid counts as no jobs, even though the second is
in virtually all cases a socially superior outcome. (True, someone else might take that job at
McD's, so the net might only be one job. But with less demand for that job, perhaps it would have
to pay more and be a better job.) If you extend this line of thinking through elder care, and
then family- and community-based health care ('health care' in the widest, not specifically industrial
sense of the word), one could imagine substantially more healthy (in the widest sense) families,
communities, and societies with substantially lower carbon footprints than our current predicament.
One question is, if one took current measures of paid 'care work' as a baseline for what counts
as 'work,' and then provided similar levels of compensation to those currently performing similar
unpaid work (and I would advocate for higher pay for carers with a closer social bond to those
they care for, because in knowing the 'patient' better they are more 'skilled'), what implications
would that have for 'the economy' and the society in general?
(Similarly, as many others have noted, we need new economic categories that allow us to identify
negative economic activity (much finance, deforestation, pollution, waste, de-humanization, etc.)
that subtracts from standard measures of well-being rather than being included in them.)
There are many different ways to think about this, not all positive. Commodification vs. de-commodification
is a long-running discussion in Marxist circles, and one could imagine arguments in favor of extending
the latter to many more spheres of society. I think many supporters of BIG are de-commifiers at
heart. Even in our current context, massively improving and extending paid leave is a nod in this
direction. OTOH, one could also easily imagine to make kids the one paying their parents to raise
them, and going even deeper into debt, on the same logic of paying for college – your parents
are working to improve your social capital and earning potential and so you should pay them out
of your future earnings.
Relatedly, I am not opposed to alternative measures of social well-being, such as 'happiness
indexes.' But until we are able to directly challenge capitalist and neoclassical hegemony over
what counts as paid work (i.e. 'useful economic activity') and directly address the economic cost
of social 'bads,' there will be no taking the foot off the accelerator of economic growth, even
as we plunge Thelma-and-Louise-style over the cliff.
And I believe that at least several, if not all, of the "notable signers" listed in my comment
above have actually done some of that challenging of capitalist and neoclassical hegemony for
which you are calling.
I absolutely agree that "there is a lot more work that has to be done to make that [steady
state economy] concept appropriate in a reality-based sense."
I think we can continue with "growth" maybe not indefinitely but certainly for a very long
time to come. Just remove the giant parasitic vampire squid that drains away all of the blood,
8 guys holding 50% of the world's wealth, I mean gimme a break you don't have to be a dreaded
pinko Commie to think that is just hideously wrong. The more we talk about that and the less we
talk about how great it is for us all to cut back and move into Mom's basement the better. It's
US versus THEM and there are very very few of THEM.
Piling on:
All of the artists that I personally know, and I know many, make their living doing something
other than their art. Even the professional musicians get paid playing someone else's music so
they can make their own.
So the thing that gives an artist's life meaning- creating art- and contributes to or even defines
a local or regional culture doesn't count as work, but the day job does. The cost of making the
art not only doesn't count as a job, it counts as a drain of resources in terms of both time and
treasure.
I had never heard of the author or the book, I will definitely be ordering it. It's helpful
to have a reminder now and again, that our society, and whole way of living and being is a historical
aberration and there are many better options.
It also made me smile while reading to think about someone like Krugman reading this book and
twisting themselves into pretzels to dispute it (reality).
I imagine it would be one very complex pretzel but if anything could manage it, it would be
a serious of krugfacts.
: What he found was that-in the absence of a perpetually-growing economy-community and culture
are key.
There is a distinct difference from an ordinary pastoral in 'As You Like It' – the shepherds
do not own their sheep, and specific reference is made to the rural displaced, set to walk and
die on the roads. The policy was simply industrialized post-WWII, with tracts of suburbs in company
towns, separated from the competing allegiances of extended family and culture.
The problem is an old one. The successful solutions are not well publicized. The equivocations
of economicysts are now being revealed, and needs be drawn and quartered for the metastases they
encourage.
Soo.. we're working more now than the middle ages. Great! Good job america!
As a dispirited milennial myself, it seems that the best option for me is to cut loose, live
somewhere cheap and warm, enjoy nature and some friendly neighbors and watch this apocalypse unfold.
I sure as hell am not grinding my life away in the corporate trenches for ever-diminishing purchasing
power, give me a job at the grocer! What's that they've all been automated? Oh, damnit.
As a dispirited milennial myself, it seems that the best option for me is to cut loose,
live somewhere cheap and warm, enjoy nature and some friendly neighbors and watch this apocalypse
unfold.
Also the case for a reasonably affluent babyboomer
I actually did that. At 55, seven years ago now, I got disgusted and bailed out. I closed my
business (I actually gave it to my last two employees who wanted to keep going), sold my couple
of real estate holding in the city (my house and my business property) and moved out to the sticks
to brood and live cheaply. Turns out the living is cheap but there's been no brooding. Although
I had a ball in business, until the last two years, I've never had this much fun and contentment
with life. I'm a two bit hobby farmer or homesteader, if you will. You say that flippantly, as
I did, but bailing out and disconnecting from a Madison Ave determined lifestyle can actually
be quite rewarding. It's not for everyone but it's been a very fulfilling experience for me. Good
luck.
I had a weird dream about capitalism in reverse. Where we came to understand money as just
another form of energy and distributed it to people regularly so nobody needed to sell their labor
and the economy didn't need to grow to make profits. Instead of selling products/labor, everyone
used their money to make things we need and then paid again to give their product to someone:
"I'll give you the cost of making this naturally cured ham if you will please take it and enjoy
it." And we gave our money back to the environment the same way: here, please take all of our
energy and help to repair yourself. Or, we've spent our energy making these sustainable homes,
and we can offer your family $20K to take one and live in it. Sounds so nutty. I guess it would
still work to form a partnership, pool our money, and build a state of the art drug research lab.
And pay people to use these excellent drugs. Never mind.
William Morris, News from
Nowhere . Pleasant overview, not big on infrastructure, well-handled dream sequence.
To clarify: I approve, but don't expect this book to give assembly instructions.
Thanks for this great post, more like it please! It's no good endlessly criticising the status
quo we all need to spend more time discussing the alternatives and moving ourselves forward.
During my time as a retail worker it struck me how much of effective customer service was
really an unpaid use of our spontaneous urge to give aid to other people, to respond to their
needs as human beings.
We were often in the position of spiking the SOP of the business to get them what they
wanted. It hit me then how much the ostensible money economy is a free rider on the world of our
human non-economic lives, or is like free clean water used in an industrial process.
My co-workers and I sometimes became bitter about the low wages, and stopped paying attention
to people, but we couldn't keep it up for long, because you couldn't feel good for long about
taking it out on innocent people, and eventually even the bitterest co-workers would encounter
someone they just had to respond to as another person. We all figured out, sooner or later, that
the connection was the enduring value in the job.
This book, Lean Logic has twigged to this reality underlying the economy.
Hmmm. Resonates strongly with the bricklaying scene in Solzhenitsyn's One Day in the Life
of Ivan Denisovitch (about working in a prison camp.) I've got to see tomorrow if the bookstore
can get Lean Logic .
In an Utopian world the hardest least desirable jobs pay the most. CEOs make minimum wage while
the burger flippers being whipped by managers to hurry up are raking it in but do we have enough
unambitious intelligent people to keep the world turning
Socialism will always have to be balanced by the carrot and stick to minimize the mis-allocation
of resources.
Thus we can see reasons behind the high priority capitalistic societies put on individualism,
privatization, the self, the breaking down of "the commons," and fearing other groups, such as
Hispanics, Jews, or Muslims, at one time Catholics too as in the US. The whole mode of social
"we're all in this together" thinking is antithetical to it's reason for being. We need to think
"bigly" with a whole new paradigm (or is it an ancient paradigm) on how we view the world, and
we better do so quickly.
"... "Trust in institutions generally has taken a body blow over the past few years. The Edelman global survey suggests that public trust in businesses, government, NGOs and the media has fallen sharply. In 2016, only around half of the general public trusted these bodies. ..."
"... ... What is true of institutions appears to be true too of the economics profession. A recent poll by YouGov in the UK asked the general public how much they trusted various professions. Economists were towards the bottom of this list, well below scientists, historians, weather forecasters and even sports commentators." ..."
"... While the net approval of economic policy fell sharply in the Great Recession, it had been moving down since the early 2000s. In the past few years, households' assessment of economic policy got back to around its average historical level. Yet that still leaves slightly more people saying economic policy is doing a poor job than a good job. The large gap between today and the late-1990s sure looks like more than a messaging problem. ..."
... "how central banks could regain the public's trust by changing the way they communicate."
Well worth a read. It also fits in the avalanche of commentary on how economists should engage with
the public as experts and how much trust economists deserve. Some examples online from just the past
few days
here and
here.
I can see many reasons why central banks and economists should engage with the public. (And that's
even without getting into communication policy tools, like forward guidance, a topic I'll leave to
the
experts
.) I wrote in an earlier post about
a Fed Up event hosted by
the Kansas City Fed. And as
Steve Williamson
points out in his post on Haldane's speech, Reserve Banks in the United States do many forms
of community outreach. (A point Haldane does acknowledge too.) What's less clear to me is whether
better communication is sufficient for raising trust. Nowhere in his speech does Haldane
show that a lack of communication caused the reduced trust in central banks. In fact, central-bank
communication has dramatically risen. So was it the wrong kind or too little, too late? Even so,
I struggle to imagine the community round table, social media campaign, or gaming app that would
have convinced regular folks that the AIG bailout was a winner. And wouldn't it have been more bizarre
if the public's confidence in central banks and economists had not taken a hit in the financial
crisis? I get it that technocratic credibility and the independence it allows are crucial ingredients
to monetary policy, but isn't that earned by outcomes not words?
Trust slipping away? ...
How much has trust in central banks declined? Haldane's
Chart 12 shows trends across various countries since 1999, though the down-trending measure for
the United States is about its economic leadership in general. This reminded me of
analysis done by
Richard Curtin with the Michigan Survey. That survey asked U.S. households how their confidence
in the Federal Reserve had changed after some major events: stock market crash of 1987, financial
crisis/early recovery, and then later in this recovery. At each point, more people said their confidence
in the Fed had fallen relative to five years earlier than had increased, but the net decline in confidence
was sharpest around the financial crisis. Curtin also noted, not surprisingly, that individuals'
confidence in the Fed (or the lack thereof) and their outlook for the economy were strongly correlated.
Even so, I don't have a sense from any of these data what is the appropriate level of trust or
confidence in central banks and how far we are from it now. Maybe with Greenspan, or as his biographer
dubbed him, "
The Man Who Knew ," the public put too much trust in the Fed? And for an institution that got
its start on a
fake duck hunt
in 1910, the complicated relationship with trust and transparency goes way back.
A bigger problem? ...
Are the concerns now about damaged trust only limited to central banks? Haldane argues that institutions,
experts, and economists have all lost ground:
"Trust in institutions generally has taken a body blow over the past few years. The Edelman
global survey suggests that public trust in businesses, government, NGOs and the media has fallen
sharply. In 2016, only around half of the general public trusted these bodies.
... What is true of institutions appears to be true too of the economics profession.
A recent poll by YouGov in the UK asked the general public how much they trusted various professions.
Economists were towards the bottom of this list, well below scientists, historians, weather forecasters
and even sports commentators."
Central banks, which are institutions full of economists, are thus in for it. It is worth pointing
out that politicians scored even lower than economists in trust and civil servants only a bit better,
so economic policy, in general, faces a confidence deficit. But is this really new? Since 1970, the
Michigan survey has asked households:
"As to the economic policy of the government - I mean steps taken to fight inflation or unemployment
- would you say the government is going a good job, only fair, or a poor job?"
While the net approval of economic policy fell sharply in the Great Recession, it had been
moving down since the early 2000s. In the past few years, households' assessment of economic policy
got back to around its average historical level. Yet that still leaves slightly more people saying
economic policy is doing a poor job than a good job. The large gap between today and the late-1990s
sure looks like more than a messaging problem.
What can words achieve? ...
Much of Haldane's speech focuses on how inaccessible the communications of central banks, including
the media coverage of monetary policy, are for the general public. Seems like this tells us something
about central banks as well as who finds central banks interesting. An FOMC statement via tweetstorm
(shudder, at that canoe) might be more accessible but that doesn't guarantee a wider audience.
Attention
is a scarce resource. Plus simpler words could make it harder not easier to get the intended
message across.
Finally, pivoting back to how economists communicate in general ... a while ago I got interested
in the econ-blogosphere and econ-Twitter. Has reading economics with the technical jargon stripped
off and more personal views added on raised my confidence in economists? No, not really, but that
wasn't my goal. I went online to sample from a wider range of views about what was not working in
the economy. I was also interested in economics for a larger audience. Last year on staff at the
Council of Economic Advisers I got the chance to do a lot more writing, largely for non-economists.
It's hard to filter through research and convey findings in an accessible way ... and don't forget
the tradeoffs. Accessible often means trimming off nuance and taking a reasoned stand on debates
far from settled among economists. Even after all that simplifying, I once heard our economic reports
referred to as "vegetables" by White House staff ... as in good for you, but not necessarily what
you want to eat. Initially, I was a bit deflated but being good for people seems to me like a more
important goal for experts than being the next Elvis.
PS: Haldane refers to Elvis several times, including his title. On that fun note, I'll add that
Jessie J's Price Tag in 2011 struck me as a good Fed song: "Why is everybody so serious;
Acting so damn mysterious ... It's not about the money money money; We don't need your money money
money; We just wanna make the world dance ..."
"... Could Russia's post-communist transition have been managed better? We can never answer such questions definitively: history
cannot be re-run. But I believe what we are confronting is partly the legacy of the flawed Washington Consensus that shaped Russia's
transition. ..."
"... This framework's influences was reflected in the tremendous emphasis reformers placed on privatization, no matter how it was
done, with speed taking precedence over everything else, including creating the institutional infrastructure needed to make a market
economy work. Fifteen years ago, when I wrote Globalization and its Discontents, I argued that this "shock therapy" approach to economic
reform was a dismal failure. ..."
"... Today, more than a quarter-century since the onset of transition, those earlier results have been confirmed, and those who
argued that private property rights, once created, would give rise to broader demands for the rule of law have been proven wrong. Russia
and many of the other transition countries are lagging further behind the advanced economies than ever. GDP in some transition countries
is below its level at the beginning of the transition." ..."
"... In the matter before us – the question of the many billions in capital that fled Russia to Western shores via the Bank of New
York and other Western banks – we have had a window thrown open on what the financial affairs of a country without property rights,
without banks, without the certainty of contract, without an accountable government or a leadership decent enough to be concerned with
the national interest or its own citizens' well-being looks like. ..."
"... And there is no mistake as to who the victims are, i.e. Western, principally U.S., taxpayers and Russian citizens' whose national
legacy was stolen only to be squandered and/or invested in Western real estate and equities markets ..."
"In terms of per capita income, Russia now ranks 73rd (in terms of purchasing power parity) – well below the Soviet Union's
former satellites in Central and Eastern Europe. The country has deindustrialized: the vast majority of its exports now come from
natural resources. It has not evolved into a "normal" market economy, but rather into a peculiar form of crony-state capitalism
.
Many had much higher hopes for Russia, and the former Soviet Union more broadly, when the Iron Curtain fell. After seven decades
of Communism, the transition to a democratic market economy would not be easy. But, given the obvious advantages of democratic
market capitalism to the system that had just fallen apart, it was assumed that the economy would flourish and citizens would
demand a greater voice. What went wrong? Who, if anyone, is to blame?
Could Russia's post-communist transition have been managed better? We can never answer such questions definitively: history
cannot be re-run. But I believe what we are confronting is partly the legacy of the flawed Washington Consensus that shaped Russia's
transition.
This framework's influences was reflected in the tremendous emphasis reformers placed on privatization, no matter how it
was done, with speed taking precedence over everything else, including creating the institutional infrastructure needed to make
a market economy work. Fifteen years ago, when I wrote Globalization and its Discontents, I argued that this "shock therapy" approach
to economic reform was a dismal failure.
But defenders of that doctrine cautioned patience: one could make such judgments only with a longer-run perspective. Today,
more than a quarter-century since the onset of transition, those earlier results have been confirmed, and those who argued that
private property rights, once created, would give rise to broader demands for the rule of law have been proven wrong. Russia and
many of the other transition countries are lagging further behind the advanced economies than ever. GDP in some transition countries
is below its level at the beginning of the transition."
Stiglitz is not saying markets cannot work if the rules are properly constructed. He is saying that the Yeltsin rules were
not as they were crony capitalism at their worse. And it seems the Putin rules are not much better. He mentions his 1997 book
which featured as chapter 5 "Who Lost Russia". It still represents an excellent read.
"Shleifer also met his mentor and professor, Lawrence Summers, during his undergraduate education at Harvard. The two went on
to be co-authors, joint grant recipients, and faculty colleagues.[5]
During the early 1990s, Andrei Shleifer headed a Harvard project under the auspices of the Harvard Institute for International
Development (HIID) that invested U.S. government funds in the development of Russia's economy.
Schleifer was also a direct advisor to Anatoly Chubais, then vice-premier of Russia, who managed the Rosimushchestvo (Committee
for the Management of State Property) portfolio and was a primary engineer of Russian privatization. Shleifer was also tasked
with establishing a stock market for Russia that would be a world-class capital market.[14]
In 1996 complaints about the Harvard project led Congress to launch a General Accounting Office investigation, which stated
that the Harvard Institute for International Development (HIID) was given "substantial control of the U.S. assistance program."[15]
In 1997, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) canceled most of its funding for the Harvard project after investigations
showed that top HIID officials Andre Schleifer and Johnathan Hay had used their positions and insider information to profit from
investments in the Russian securities markets. Among other things, the Institute for a Law Based Economy (ILBE) was used to assist
Schleifer's wife, Nancy Zimmerman, who operated a hedge fund which speculated in Russian bonds.[14]
In August 2005, Harvard University, Shleifer and the Department of Justice reached an agreement under which the university
paid $26.5 million to settle the five-year-old lawsuit. Shleifer was also responsible for paying $2 million worth of damages,
though he did not admit any wrongdoing
"He has held a tenured position in the Department of Economics at Harvard University since 1991 and was, from 2001 through
2006, the Whipple V. N. Jones Professor of Economics."
My impression is that Andrei Shleifer was a marionette, a low level pawn in a big game.
The fact that he was a greedy academic scum, who tried to amass a fortune in Russia probably under influence of his wife (his
wife, a hedge fund manager, was GS alumnae and was introduced to him by Summers) is peripheral to the actual role he played.
Jeffey Sacks also played highly negative role being the architect of "shock therapy": the sudden release of price and currency
controls, withdrawal of state subsidies, and immediate trade liberalization within a country, usually also including large-scale
privatization of previously public-owned assets.
In other words "shock therapy" = "economic rape"
As Anne Williamson said:
"Instead, after robbing the Russian people of the only capital they had to participate in the new market – the nation's
household savings – by freeing prices in what was a monopolistic economy and which delivered a 2500% inflation in 1992, America's
"brave, young Russian reformers" ginned-up a development theory of "Big Capitalism" based on Karl Marx's mistaken edict that
capitalism requires the "primitive accumulation of capital". Big capitalists would appear instantly, they said, and a broadly-based
market economy shortly thereafter if only the pockets of pre-selected members of their own ex-Komsomol circle were properly
stuffed.
Those who hankered for a public reputation were to secure the government perches from which they would pass state assets
to their brethren in the nascent business community, happy in the knowledge that they too would be kicked back a significant
cut of the swag. The US-led West accommodated the reformers' cockeyed theory by designing a rapid and easily manipulated voucher
privatization program that was really only a transfer of title and which was funded with $325 million US taxpayers' dollars.
"
"Many in Russia believe that the US Treasury pushed Washington Consensus policies to weaken their country. The deep corruption
of the Harvard University team chosen to "help" Russia in its transition, described in a detailed account published in 2006
by Institutional Investor, reinforced these beliefs."
This was not a corruption. This was the intent on Clinton administration. I would think about it as a planned operation.
The key was that the gangster capitalism model was enforced by the Western "Washington consensus" (of which IMF was an integral
part) -- really predatory set of behaviors designed to colonize Russia and make is US satellite much like Germany became after
WWII but without the benefit of Marshall plan.
Clinton consciously chose this criminal policy among alternatives: kick the lying body. So after Russian people get rid of
corrupt and degraded Communist regime, they got under the iron hill of US gangsters from Clinton administration.
My impression is that Clinton was and is a criminal. And he really proved to be a very capable mass murderer. And his entourage
had found willing sociopaths within Russian society (as well as in other xUUSR republics; Ukraine actually fared worse then Russia
as for the level of plunder) who implemented neoliberal policies. Yegor Gaidar was instrumental in enforcing Harvard-designed
"shock therapy" on Russian people. He also create the main neoliberal party in Russia -- the Democratic Choice of Russia - United
Democrats. Later in 1990s, it became the Union of Right Forces.
Before the Committee on Banking and Financial Services of the United States House of Representatives
September 21, 1999
In the matter before us – the question of the many billions in capital that fled Russia to Western shores via the Bank
of New York and other Western banks – we have had a window thrown open on what the financial affairs of a country without property
rights, without banks, without the certainty of contract, without an accountable government or a leadership decent enough to
be concerned with the national interest or its own citizens' well-being looks like. It's not a pretty picture, is it?
But let there be no mistake, in Russia the West has truly been the author of its own misery. And there is no mistake as
to who the victims are, i.e. Western, principally U.S., taxpayers and Russian citizens' whose national legacy was stolen only
to be squandered and/or invested in Western real estate and equities markets
... ... ...
A lot of people, especially pensioners, died because of Clinton's gangster policies in xUUSR space.
I am wondering how Russian managed to survive as an independent country. The USA put tremendous efforts and resources in destruction
of Russian economy and colonizing its by creating "fifth column" on neoliberal globalization.
all those criminal oligarchs hold moved their capitals to the West as soon as they can because they were afraid of the future.
Nobody persecuted them and Western banks helped to extract money from Russia to the extent that some of their methods were clearly
criminals.
Economic devastation was comparable with caused by Nazi armies, although amount of dead was less, but also in millions.
Questionable figures from the West flowed into Russia and tried to exploit still weak law system by raiding the companies.
Some of them were successful and amassed huge fortunes. Some ended being shot. Soros tried, but was threatened to be shot by Berezovsky
and choose to leave for the good.
Especially hard hit was military industrial complex, which was oversized in any case, but which was an integral part of Soviet
economy and employed many highly qualified specialists. Many of whom later emigrated to the West. At some point it was difficult
to find physics department in the US university without at least a single person form xUSSR space (not necessary a Russian)
My impression is that cutting off Democratic
Party from the teat of the Wall Street is currently virtually impossible. You need a serious crisis
to shake off Clinton's neoliberal wing from Democratic Party. May be even another economic crisis
like 2008.
Also Democratic Party, Republican Party, the US Congress and the Federal Government are all just
different faces of the same entity -- the National Security State.
With the level of jingoism demonstrated recently by Democratic Party (which was the forte of Republicans
in the past), Clinton's Democrats and Republicans now are like Siamese twins, and to separate them
from each other is like trying to separate two sides of a dollar bill.
This is a clear sign of the bubble. Tesla is low volume luxury car makers (competing mainly
in the segment where BMW sedans and Lexus dominate) with not very reliable and extremely costly
product. " Of course, based on the number of cars actually being made,
they are in a different league from Tesla. G.M. sold 256,000 vehicles in the United States last month,
and Ford 234,000. Tesla's sales for the same period: 4,000."
Notable quotes:
"... It currently offers two vehicles, the Model S luxury sedan and the Model X S.U.V., both of which sell for $90,000 or more when options are added in. ..."
On Monday, Tesla surpassed
Ford Motor in market value for the first time and moved within striking distance of General Motors,
starkly illustrating the growing gap in investors' optimism over its future versus the prospects
for the traditional carmakers from Detroit.
While G.M. and Ford may have strong profits and healthy balance sheets, Tesla offers something
Wall Street loves much more: the potential for dramatic growth.
"Investors want something that is going to go up in orders of magnitude in six months to six years,
and Tesla is that story," said Karl Brauer, a senior editor at Kelley Blue Book. "Nobody thinks Ford
or G.M. is going to do that."
Tesla's chief executive,
Elon Musk , has shattered the conventional wisdom that automakers should be viewed as a stable,
reliable investment. Instead, he promotes his California-based company as a dynamic vehicle for growth,
despite the risks and challenges ahead of it.
... ... ...
This summer, the company is supposed to start making the Model 3, a compact electric model that Tesla plans to sell for $35,000 and produce in significantly higher volumes. It currently offers two vehicles, the Model S luxury sedan and the Model X S.U.V., both of which sell for $90,000 or more when options are added in.
(People who buy its cars benefit from a $7,500 federal tax credit on environmentally friendly cars, a selling point with an uncertain future.)
Once Tesla begins producing the Model 3, Mr. Musk expects production to ramp up quickly, with a goal of making 500,000 cars a year by 2018. Achieving that target will not be easy, Mr. Brauer said. "That's five times growth in volume," he said. "I don't know of any car company that's ever done that in a two-year period."
"... My impression is that cutting off Democratic Party from the teat of the Wall Street is currently virtually impossible. You need a serious crisis to shake off Clinton's neoliberal wing from Democratic Party. May be even another economic crisis like 2008. ..."
"... Also Democratic Party, Republican Party, the US Congress and the Federal Government are all just different faces of the same entity -- the National Security State. ..."
My impression is that cutting off Democratic Party from the
teat of the Wall Street is currently virtually impossible.
You need a serious crisis to shake off Clinton's neoliberal
wing from Democratic Party. May be even another economic
crisis like 2008.
Also Democratic Party, Republican Party, the US Congress
and the Federal Government are all just different faces of
the same entity -- the National Security State.
With the level of jingoism demonstrated recently by
Democratic Party (which was the forte of Republicans in the
past), Clinton's Democrats and Republicans now are like
Siamese twins, and to separate them from each other is like
trying to separate two sides of a dollar bill.
It is an easy thing to criticize neoliberalism now, when it
was already unmasked (especially the USA variant of it, aka
"casino capitalism")
A more difficult thing is to point to a viable
alternative.
anne said...
April, 2017
Do election outcomes matter?
So what have we discovered? While these patterns need to be investigated more thoroughly, the
data suggest no clear difference between Democratic and Republican presidents on 20 of the 30
outcomes:
Income inequality: top 1%'s share
Economic growth
Median wealth
Homeownership
Stock market
Unionization
Black-white income ratio
Female-male pay ratio
College graduates
Life expectancy
Homicides
Incarceration
Marriage
Out-of-wedlock births
Abortions
Religiosity
Immigration
Imports
Trust
Earth's average temperature
We do observe a partisan difference for 10 of the outcomes (the party achieving better
performance is listed in parentheses):
Is the USA entered a "revolutionary situation" which usually
is referred as "crisis of legitimacy" in English-language
literature.
Looks like it did judging from what MSM write about Trump
and his entourage. And anti-Russian hysteria is a reaction of
this crisis of legitimacy, attempt to suppress it at least
temporary by uniting the nation against the external threat (
and this efforts fall into fertile ground of dreams about
Trump impeachment in democratic circles; Russians of Chinese,
does not matter -- but the orange menace should be
eliminated):
The key question is: Who has the stronger claim to speak
on behalf of the people: the president or the majority that
opposes his policies?" No automatic mechanism exists within
the system to resolve this, and so each side has an incentive
to escalate its claim and attempt to seize more power.
Questions of legitimacy certainly do arise if voters would
rather not have outsourcing and offshoring, cuts in public
spending including healthcare, and cuts in taxes for rich --
but are getting those policies anyway. Global financial
oligarchy still pressure for privatization of utilities,
healthcare, education, you name it, despite crisis of 2008.
In other words, neoliberalism in zombie stage is probably
more dangerous that pre-2008 neoliberalism.
The regulatory race to the bottom (aka deregulation) did
not stopped. Several types of regulation-for example, of
health and safety in the workplace, terms of employment,
product and environmental standards -- have both ideological
and political content.
If voters say: this is not the agenda we elected Trump to
implement, democratic dreams about Trump impeachment might
become more realistic then inflating anti-Russian hysteria
path, the path that the corrupt Democratic Party leadership
selected and finance.
But at the same time Democrats does not really represent
the opposition. They are also corrupt to the core (Schumer,
Raid, Pelosi are nice examples here) and adopted
neoliberalism in essentially the same form as Republicans.
They fully adopted such policies as "moderation" in taxes
(cutting taxes for the rich and making tax scheme more flat))
and "moderation" of public spending, "fiscal responsibility"
and the rest of neoliberal "pro financial oligarchy" program.
People feel disempowered by global neoliberalism. And that
might start to affect the stability of the society soon. In
2015 New York Times columnist Charles M. Blow made this point
recently in a commentary on the relations between minority
communities and our system of justice. He said that we need a
"restoration - or a formation - of faith for all of America's
citizens in the American justice system itself."
"... In the 1960's Mr. Tobin's sophisticated Keynesianism made him the best-known intellectual opponent
of Milton Friedman, then the advocate of a rival (and rather naïve) doctrine known as monetarism ..."
James Tobin -- Yale professor, Nobel laureate and adviser to John F. Kennedy -- died yesterday.
He was a great economist and a remarkably good man; his passing seems to me to symbolize the passing
of an era, one in which economic debate was both nicer and a lot more honest than it is today.
Mr. Tobin was one of those economic theorists whose influence reaches so far that many people
who have never heard of him are nonetheless his disciples. He was also, however, a public figure,
for a time the most prominent advocate of an ideology we might call free-market Keynesianism --
a belief that markets are fine things, but that they work best if the government stands ready
to limit their excesses. In a way, Mr. Tobin was the original New Democrat; it's ironic that some
of his essentially moderate ideas have lately been hijacked by extremists right and left.
Mr. Tobin was one of the economists who brought the Keynesian revolution to America. Before
that revolution, there seemed to be no middle ground in economics between laissez-faire fatalism
and heavy-handed government intervention -- and with laissez-faire policies widely blamed for
the Great Depression, it was hard to see how free-market economics could survive. John Maynard
Keynes changed all that: with judicious use of monetary and fiscal policy, he suggested, a free-market
system could avoid future depressions.
What did James Tobin add? Basically, he took the crude, mechanistic Keynesianism prevalent
in the 1940's and transformed it into a far more sophisticated doctrine, one that focused on the
tradeoffs investors make as they balance risk, return and liquidity.
In the 1960's Mr. Tobin's sophisticated Keynesianism made him the best-known intellectual
opponent of Milton Friedman, then the advocate of a rival (and rather naïve) doctrine known as
monetarism . For what it's worth, Mr. Friedman's insistence that changes in the money supply
explain all of the economy's ups and downs has not stood the test of time; Mr. Tobin's focus on
asset prices as the driving force behind economic fluctuations has never looked better. (Mr. Friedman
is himself a great economist -- but his reputation now rests on other work.) ...
the end – its demands for payment cannot be met. It was fictitious because it consisted
"
That is why we have bankruptcy statutes. The exponential expansion of aggregate debt will end
when we brighten up enough to begin 6% per annum deflation. With that much deflation bankers would
not charge interest. As interest accumulation into the aggregate-debt-compartment stops, exponential
expansion of same comes to a bitter end. Tell me something!
Are some ethnic sectors prohibited from charging interest? How do their bankers survive?
By support from the Palatial-economy! Prop-up would be unnecessary with ongoing deflation.
Tell me something else, Elsie!
Do our t-bonds pay 3% interest ? Minus 2% inflation? 1% real?
You bet chore bottom butt pillow, Mad Marx! That means that 6% deflation would be unnecessary
for exorcising Marx. 1.04% deflation would be taxation enough, budget-balance enough to ghost-bust
the blighter.
Let the good times roll, and thrill your soul! Got soul?
The mistake or misjudgement of Marx, if one wants to call it that, was constructing a narrative
of social progress assuming that people (and specifically the decision makers and influencers
in any social hierarchy) would actually be interested in superseding the previous order rather
than becoming the new feudal lords (or if not outright working for that, getting comfortable in
their role of power that invariably enables liege-vassal relationships).
I've always thought that Marx's mistake was thinking that industrial capitalists would displace
rentiers, thus paving the way for socialism.
I think Lenin had the thought that the petite bourgeoisie wanted to emulate the haute bourgeoisie
and would therefore be a major impediment to dictatorship of the proletariat. Maybe your thought
is similar to Lenin's.
When Schumpeter said that corporatism would induce the public will to adopt social democracy
it seemed like a classic bait and switch to me. I have not read Marx to know what might have
been on his mind, but he was not really a prole himself. So, likely being true to himself was
not in the cards.
IIRC, Marx spent most of his time in the British Library, almost like a full-time job, and he
was supported by Engels, who owned a factory. I think Marx was broke most of the time.
So I see Marx as a nerd and a poverty-stricken ivory tower type.
Das Kapital - Not just volume 1
........................
More than any other economist of his century, Marx tied
together the major kinds of crisis that were occurring.
His Theories of Surplus Value and volumes 2 and 3 of Das
Kapital explained the two main forms of crisis his classical
predecessors had pointed to, and which the bourgeois
revolutions of 1848 were fought over. These crises were the
result of survivals from Europe's feudal epoch of landed
aristocracy and banking fortunes.
Marx pointed to the tendency of debts to grow
exponentially, independently of the economy's ability to pay,
and indeed faster than the economy itself.
Marx called finance capital "imaginary" or "fictitious" to
the extent that it does not stem from within the industrial
economy, and because – in the end – its demands for payment
cannot be met. It was fictitious because it consisted of
bonds, mortgages, bank loans and other rentier claims on the
means of production and the flow of wages, profit and
tangible capital investment.
Most of all, of course, Marx pointed to the form of
exploitation of wage labor by its employers in volume 1.
That did indeed stem from the capitalist production
process.
Marx analyzed economic crisis stemming from the inability
of wage labor to buy what it produces. That is the inner
contradiction specific to industrial capitalism. As described
in Volume I of Das Kapital, employers seek to maximize
profits by paying workers as little as possible. This leads
to excessive exploitation of wage labor, causing
underconsumption and a market glut.
Marx certainly provided the tools needed to analyze the
crises that the industrial capitalist economies have been
suffering for the past two hundred years.
But history has not worked out the way Marx expected. He
expected every class to act in its own class interest. That
is the only way to reasonably project the future.
The historical task and destiny of industrial capitalism,
Marx wrote in the Communist Manifesto, was to free society
from the "excrescences" of interest and rent (mainly land and
natural resource rent, along with monopoly rent) that
industrial capitalism had inherited from medieval and even
ancient society.
These useless rentier charges on production are faux frais,
costs that slow the accumulation of industrial capital. They
do not stem from the production process, but are a legacy of
the feudal warlords who conquered England and other European
realms to found hereditary landed aristocracies.
Financial overhead in the form of usury-capital is, to
Marx, a legacy of the banking families that built up fortunes
by war lending and usury.
The interest of the rising class of industrial capitalists
was to free economies from this legacy of feudalism, from the
unnecessary faux frais of production – prices in excess of
real cost-value.
The destiny of industrial capitalism, Marx believed, was
to rationalize economies by getting rid of the idle landlord
and banking class – by socializing land, nationalizing
natural resources and basic infrastructure, and
industrializing the banking system – to fund industrial
expansion instead of unproductive usury.
If capitalism had achieved this destiny, it would have
been left primarily with the crisis between industrial
employers and workers discussed in Volume I of Capital:
exploiting wage labor to a point where labor could not buy
its products.
But at the same time, industrial capitalism would be
preparing the way for socialism, because industrialists
needed to conquer the political stranglehold of the landed
aristocracy and the financial power of banking. It needed to
promote democratic political reform to overcome the vested
interests in control of Parliaments and hence the tax system.
Labor's organization and voting power would press its own
self-interest and turn capitalism into socialism.
Today's economic crisis in the West is financial and rent
extraction, leading to debt deflation. Today's financial
crisis is largely independent of the industrial mode of
production.
As Marx noted in Volumes II and III of Capital and
Theories of Surplus Value, banking and rent extraction are in
many ways adverse to industrial capitalism.
Every Western economy measures "output" as Gross National
Product (GNP). This accounting format includes the Finance,
Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) sector as part of the
economy's output. It does this because it treats rent and
interest as "earnings," on the same plane as wages and
industrial profits – as if privatized finance, insurance and
real estate are part of the production process.
Marx treated them as external to it. Their income was not
"earned," but was "unearned." This concept was shared by the
Physiocrats, Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill and other major
classical economists. Marx was simply pressing classical
economics to its logical conclusion.
All three kinds of crisis that Marx described are occurring.
But the West is now in a chronic depression – what has been
called Debt Deflation. Instead of banking being
industrialized as Marx expected, industry is being
financialized.
Instead of democracy freeing economies from land rent,
natural resource rent and monopoly rent, the rentiers have
fought back and taken control of Western governments, legal
systems and tax policy.
The result is that we are seeing a lapse back to the
pre-capitalist problems that Marx described in Volumes II and
III of Capital and Theories of Surplus Value.
Deficits Do Matter, But Not the Way You Think
By Roosevelt Institute | 07.20.10
L. Randall Wray is Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City.
"In recent months, a form of mass hysteria has swept the country as fear of "unsustainable"
budget deficits replaced the earlier concern about the financial crisis, job loss, and collapsing
home prices. What is most troubling is that this shift in focus comes even as the government's
stimulus package winds down and as its temporary hires for the census are let go. Worse, the economy
is still - likely - years away from a full recovery. To be sure, at least some of the hysteria
has been manufactured by Pete Peterson's well-funded public relations campaign, fronted by President
Obama's National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform - a group that supposedly draws
members from across the political spectrum, yet are all committed to the belief that the current
fiscal stance puts the nation on a path to ruinous indebtedness. But even deficit doves like Paul
Krugman, who favor more stimulus now, are fretting about "structural deficits" in the future.
They insist that even if we do not need to balance the budget today, we will have to get the "fiscal
house" in order when the economy recovers.
There is an alternative view propounded by economists following what has been called "Modern
Money Theory", which emphasizes the difference between a currency-issuing sovereign government
and currency users (households, firms, and nonsovereign governments) (See here and here). They
insist that the notion of "fiscal sustainability" or "solvency" is not applicable to a sovereign
government - which cannot be forced into involuntary default on debts denominated in its own currency.
Such a government spends by crediting bank accounts or issuing paper currency. It can never run
out of the "keystrokes" it uses to credit bank accounts, and so long as it can find paper and
ink, it can issue paper currency. These, we believe, are simple statements that should be completely
noncontroversial. And this is not a policy proposal - it is an accurate description of the spending
process used by all currency-issuing sovereign governments.
And, yet, there are a number of misconceptions circulating that need to be addressed. Many
(often of the Austrian persuasion) interpret this simple statement as a Leninist plot to destroy
the nation's currency by flying black helicopters dumping an infinite supply of bags of money
all over the planet. This is usually accompanied by a diatribe on the evils of fiat money, with
a call to return to "sound money" based on shiny yellow metal. Others suggest that we are instead
proposing to ramp up the size of government, until it completes Obama's plan to gobble up the
whole economy. Almost all critiques eventually produce a lecture on the lessons to be learned
from Weimar Germany and from Zimbabwe.
The strangest criticism of all is that we MMT-ers argue that "deficits do not matter". In a
recent exchange in the New York Times, Paul Krugman put it this way: "But here's the thing: there's
a school of thought which says that deficits are never a problem, as long as a country can issue
its own currency." In that piece he took Jamie Galbraith to task for arguing that "Insolvency,
bankruptcy, or even higher real interest rates are not among the actual risks" facing a sovereign
government. I won't go into the details, but Krugman produced a simple model in which ever-larger
budget deficits generate ever-rising prices. You can see the rest of that back-and-forth here.
But the strange thing is that Krugman never actually addressed Galbraith's points that insolvency,
bankruptcy, or higher interest rates are non-issues for a sovereign government. Nor did Krugman
even try to justify his claim that MMT-ers "say that deficits are never a problem".
In fact, MMT-ers NEVER have said any such thing. Our claim is that a sovereign government cannot
be forced into involuntary default. We have never claimed that sovereign currencies are free from
inflation. We have never claimed that currencies on a floating exchange rate regime are free from
exchange rate fluctuations. Indeed, we have always said that if government tries to increase its
spending beyond full employment, this can be inflationary; we have also discussed ways in which
government can cause inflation even before full employment. We have always advocated floating
exchange rates - in which exchange rates will, well, "float". While we have rejected any simple
relation between budget deficits and exchange rate depreciation, we have admitted that currency
depreciation is a possible outcome of using government policy to stimulate the economy.
A favorite scenario used by the critics is the ever-rising budget deficit that causes the government
debt-to-GDP ratio to rise continuously. As interest payments on the debt increase, government
faces a vicious cycle of rising deficits, more debt, more interest paid, higher interest rates,
and even higher deficits.
Most people know how to make points without attacking me. You never make points but you love attacking
me with your dishonest straw man garbage. Try getting outside and actually enjoying spring. That's
what I'll be doing.
Can I make points by attacking you? I did not know. What will those points buy me? Maybe I should
have been doing that instead of planting a rose bush Thursday, especially since Jackson & Perkins
sent me a Memorial Day HT rose instead of a Queen Elizabeth Grandiflora as originally ordered.
I did not know they did substitutions if they ran out of what one ordered. I had swore that I
would never buy another hybrid tea rose and then they made me a liar.
Enjoy spring while it lasts. We are soon enough going to be in for another GHGACC summer.
"... Someone is accused of foiling the neocon plot to start WWIII. Someone is accused of colluding with a foreign dictator! Oh my!! we do get AIPAC in our elections! And Riyadh pay for play ..."
Someone is accused of foiling the neocon plot to start
WWIII. Someone is accused of colluding with a foreign
dictator!
Oh my!! we do get AIPAC in our elections! And Riyadh pay for play
Someone is accused of colluding with a foreign power to
hack
O my someone helped Assange, someone is accused of putting truth about the CONARTISTS
in DNC to the American people
Why Were Economists as a Group as Useless Over 2010 -2014 as Over 1929-1935?
by J. Bradford DeLong
April 01, 2017 at 07:04 AM
Let us start with two texts this morning:
Paul Krugman: Don't Blame Macroeconomics (Wonkish And Petty): "Robert Skidelsky... argues,
quite correctly in my view, that economists have become far too inward-looking...
...But his prime examples of economics malfeasance are, well, terrible.... [The] more or less
standard model of macroeconomics when interest rates are near zero [is] IS-LM in some form....
[And] policy had exactly the effects it was "supposed to." Now, policymakers chose not to believe
this.... And yes, some economists gave them cover. But that's a very different story from the
claim that economics failed to offer useful guidance...
Simon Wren-Lewis: Misrepresenting Academic Economists: "The majority of academic macroeconomists
were always against austerity...
...Part of the problem is a certain disregard for consensus among economists. If you ask most
scientists how a particular theory is regarded within their discipline, you will generally get
a honest and fairly accurate answer.... Economists are less likely to preface a presentation of
their work in the media with phrases like 'untested idea' or 'minority view'.... Part of Brad's
post it seems to me is simply a lament that Reinhart and Rogoff are not even better economists
than they already are. But there is also a very basic information problem: how does any economist,
let alone someone who is not an economist, know what the consensus among economists is? How do
we know that the people we meet at the conferences we go to are representative or not?...
"Mainstream", "academic", and "majority" are doing an awful lot of work here for both Paul
and Simon. So let me repeat something I wrote last December, in response to Paul's liking to say
that macroeconomics has done fine since 2007. Certainly Jim Tobin's macroeconomics has. John Maynard
Keynes's macroeconomics has. Walter Bagehot, Hyman Minsky, and Charlie Kindleberger's macroeconomics
has done fine.
But Bagehot and Minsky influenced the then top-five American economics departments--Chicago,
MIT, Harvard, Princeton, Yale--only through Kindleberger. Charlie went emeritus from MIT in 1976
and died in 1991, and MIT made a decision--a long series of repeated decisions, in fact--that
there was no space on its faculty for anybody like Charlie.
When Robert Skidelsky says "macroeconomics", he means the macroeconomics of RBC and DSGE and
ratex and the Great Moderation.
And he is right: Alesina and Ardagna and Reinhart and Rogoff each had more influence on what
policymakers and journalists thought about the effects of fiscal policy than did Paul Krugman
and company, (including me). While the Federal Reserve went full-tilt into quantitative easing
(but not stamped money or helicopter money), it did so in the face of considerable know-nothing
opposition. And the ECB lagged far behind in terms of even understanding its mission. Why? Because
economists Taylor, Boskin, Calomiris, Lucas, Fama, and company had almost as much or even more
impact as did Paul Krugman and company.
"Basic macro" did fine. But basic macro was not the really-existing macro that mattered.
And let me repeat part of my public intellectuals paper: In the last days before the coming
of the Roman Empire, Marcus Tullius Cicero in Rome wrote to his BFF correspondent Titus Pomponius
Atticus in Athens:
You cannot love our dear [Marcus Porcius] Cato any more than I do; but the man–although employing
the finest mind and possessing the greatest trustworthiness–sometimes harms the Republic. He speaks
as if we were in the Πολιτεια of Plato, and not in the sewer of Romulus
" if Obama had not created 5 years of shelter to small oil drill baby fracking on private land
with oil embargoes limiting global supply in conjunction with restrictions on oil production on
Federal leases?"
This would be an interesting myth: the myth about this great oilman Obama ...
Do you know how much junks bonds were issued during this spectacular increase is shale oil
output ?
and it was really spectacular: from 5.7 million barrels/day in 2011 to 9.2 million barrels/day
in 2014 and 9.4 million barrels/day in March 2015.
The United States increased production by 5.1 million barrels per day (Mb/d) from 2010 to 2015.
In comparison, the increase in production from Persian Gulf was less at 5.0 Mb/d. Total world
production increase was 8.4 Mb/d. Which means the rest of the world oil producers declined by
some ~ 1.7 Mb/d. This was despite Canadian production rising 1.0 Mb/d plus increases from Russia,
and Brazil. Most oil producing countries are now in a long term decline or plateau at best. US
is in decline, but that might reverse with prices hitting $70.
But it was not just oil production. It was oil plus junk bonds production and it is unclear
in what area they were the most efficient :-).
If you add cost of bankruptcies in 2015-2017 to the cost of US shale oil it becomes so high,
that it would be more cost efficient to buy it elsewhere and do not risk ecological consequences.
"Half of the current [US] producers have no legitimate right to be in a business where the
price forecast even in a recovery is going to be between, say, $50, $60. They need [above] $70
oil to survive,"
And even now then prices somewhat recovered to $50 per barrel level the only possibility to
survive for US shale oil producers are "evergreen" loans.
That might change if the price hits $70 or higher. But I would keep my fingers crossed on that:
something is happening in the world if oil managed to get this low and stay at this level in 2015-2017.
But Obama has one thing under the belt: his administration managed to crash oil prices and
this way "saved" Obama recovery, while partially wiping out the US shale.
How much of the trade deficit is caused by imported oil?
How much worse would the trade deficit be if Obama had not
created 5 years of shelter to small oil drill baby fracking
on private land with oil embargoes limiting global supply in
conjunction with restrictions on oil production on Federal
leases?
Us oil production doubled while Obama was president,
before dropping back, the first president since Carter to see
net oil production increase during his term, and the largest
increase in production during a president's term since never.
"The 2016 petroleum deficit ($56.8 billion) was the lowest
since 1998 ($42.8 billion).
The 2016 non-petroleum deficit ($677.5 billion) was the
highest on record." (Nominal)
"The 2016 real dollar petroleum deficit ($109.2 billion)
was the lowest on record.
The 2016 real dollar non-petroleum deficit ($684.2 billion)
was the highest on record."
(2009 Chain-weighted Dollars)
These are "goods" only. Trump focuses on goods only.
You are right - we have a trade surplus re services. Now
if Trump had said we have a $675 billion deficit in terms of
goods trade only but a $200 billion surplus in terms of trade
in services - that would be accurate. And actually rather
meaningless.
So he did not make it as explicit as you did. In a word,
Trump still lied.
You raise two important points here. Yes - a lot of our trade
deficit represents oil imports. Does Trump want to reduce
this by expanding dangerous low paying coal jobs that give us
environmental damage.
The 2nd point was implicit but
important. Let's say goods manufacturing is capital intensive
while the provision of services is labor intensive. Wouldn't
a shift towards the former away from the latter reduce the
overall demand for labor?
James Hamilton does some fancy statistics on www.eia.gov data
but the bottom line is simple.
Price of gasoline per
gallon = $1 + oil price per barrel/40.
The $1? $0.40 for Federal and state taxes.
$0.25 for the distributor gross margin
$0.35 for the refinery gross margin
All of this varies but let's assume oil sells for $50 a
barrel. The model predicts $2.25 per gallon or which $1.25
goes for oil and $0.35 goes for refining.
It is not simple. The crude don't stop at gasoline. That
boils off at a low temperature. More heat and you boil off
more product. Enough heat it "cracks" into sweet things like
turbine fuels.
At the end is the stuff we use for roads.
It's been too many years since I read APA journals. That
was when I could look in the mirror before coming into weapon
systems development.
Yes, the total volume
of refined products is
higher then the volume
of oil from which they
are produced. Because
some important refined
products are lighter
then oil (gasoline is
one). But the total
mass is approximately
the same.
In 2007, our energy trade deficit was $325 billion. In
2006, this had declined to less than $60 billion. I guess
that is what Obama meant by energy independence. Now whether
fracking is a good idea is a separate matter.
" if Obama had not created 5 years of shelter to small oil
drill baby fracking on private land with oil embargoes
limiting global supply in conjunction with restrictions on
oil production on Federal leases?"
This would be an
interesting myth: the myth about this great oilman Obama ...
Do you know how much junks bonds were issued during this
spectacular increase is shale oil output ?
and it was really spectacular: from 5.7 million
barrels/day in 2011 to 9.2 million barrels/day in 2014 and
9.4 million barrels/day in March 2015.
The United States increased production by 5.1 million
barrels per day (Mb/d) from 2010 to 2015. In comparison, the
increase in production from Persian Gulf was less at 5.0
Mb/d. Total world production increase was 8.4 Mb/d. Which
means the rest of the world oil producers declined by some ~
1.7 Mb/d. This was despite Canadian production rising 1.0
Mb/d plus increases from Russia, and Brazil. Most oil
producing countries are now in a long term decline or plateau
at best. US is in decline, but that might reverse with prices
hitting $70.
But is was not just oil production. It was oil plus junk
bonds production and it is unclear in what area they were the
most efficient :-).
If you add cost of bankruptcies in 2015-2017 to the cost
of US shale oil is so high, that it would be more cost
efficient to buy it elsewhere and do not risk ecological
consequences.
"Half of the current [US] producers have no legitimate
right to be in a business where the price forecast even in a
recovery is going to be between, say, $50, $60. They need
[above] $70 oil to survive,"
And even now then prices somewhat recovered to $50 per
barrel level the only possibility to survive for US shale oil
producers are "evergreen" loans.
That might change id the price hits $70 or higher. But I
would keep my fingers crosses on that: something is happening
in the world if oil managed to get this low and stay at this
level in 2015-2017.
But Obama has one thing under the belt: his administration
managed to crash oil prices and this way "saved" Obama
recovery, while partially wiping out the US shale.
My impression is Obama administration was somewhat
incompetent in energy issues, or preoccupied with other
issues which they considered to be of higher priority. They
also wasted a lot of money on useless wars and training and
supplying jihadists in Syria and Iraq (although lion share
were Saudi money), money that could upgrade national grid
creating East -West high voltage line necessary for expansion
of electricity generation from renewables as well as for
increase of the fleet of electrical cars in southern state
(in North-West, in winter electrical cars are not very
practical; even dangerous as the heater consumes 5 KW/h and
drains battery (total for a "low end" electrical car battery
is around 30 kW/h; 75 kW/h for luxury cars like Tesla).
If they created hysteria about oil prices when they were
above $100 with the same efficiency as they created
anti-Russian hysteria, treating this even as a national
threat, the USA would be in much better shape today to face
the energy challenges of tomorrow.
Now with proliferation of SUVs USA might need drastic
measures to force private car fleet into hybrids and small
(European size, where Corolla is a family car) cars with at
least 40 miles per gallon.
Without those measures tendency of the US economics to
stagnate might increase when gas expectantly moves to over $4
per gallon. Also few people will be able to use small trucks
as a personal transportation vehicle.
High oil prices (let's assume that this means over $100
per barrel ) might also slow down the process of neoliberal
globalization. So Trump might well be just ahead of time in
this area.
A lot of interesting changes in neoliberal economics await
us with oil steadily hovering above $100, but it is unclear
when (but not if) this moment come. It might be as close as
within a decade.
Is anything ever going to happen on trade, Trump's
signature issue other than immigration? As Matt Yglesias
notes, so far almost nothing has. * Bloomberg tells us that
companies are back to the usual business of moving jobs to
Mexico, ** after a brief hiatus - unclear whether there was
any real pause, or just a pause in announcements, but in any
case CEOs seem to have decided that the North American Free
Trade Agreement isn't under much threat.
True, Trump is tweeting threats about the China trade, ***
and maybe something big will happen after Mar-a-Lago. But
that gets us to the question, is Trump actually in a position
to pursue the trade issue in any serious way?
My answer is probably not - except as a move taken out of
political desperation.
The starting point for any such discussion has to be the
observation that during the campaign, when Trump talked
trade, he had no idea what he was talking about - no more
than he did on health care, or taxes, or coal, or .
Specifically, Trump seemed to have two false ideas in mind:
1. Existing trade agreements are obviously and bigly
unfair to the United States, putting us at a disadvantage.
2. Restricting trade would be good for America and bad for
foreigners, so the threat of protectionism gives us lots of
leverage.
Now, reality: if you look for the obvious giveaways in
NAFTA, which the US can demand be redressed, you won't find
them. NAFTA brought down most trade barriers between us and
Mexico; there wasn't any marked asymmetry. In fact, since
Mexican tariffs were higher to start with, in effect Mexico
made more concessions than we did (although we were giving
access to a bigger market.) China is a bit more complicated -
arguably the Chinese effectively evade some World Trade
Organization rules. But even there it's not obvious what you
would demand from a new agreement.
Oh, and China currency manipulation was an issue 5 years
ago - but isn't now.
What about the effects of protectionism? Leave aside
Economics 101 gains from trade, and let's just talk about
business interests. The fact is that modern international
trade creates interdependence in a way that old-fashioned
trade didn't; stuff you export is often produced with a lot
of imported components, stuff you import often indirectly
includes a lot of your own exports. Here's the domestic share
of value added in transport equipment:
[Graph]
When we buy autos from Mexico, only about half the value
added is Mexican, with most of the rest coming from the US -
so if you restrict those imports, a lot of U.S. production
workers will be hurt. If we restrict imports of components
from Mexico, we're going to raise the costs of U.S. producers
who export to other markets; again, a lot of U.S. jobs will
be hit. So even if you completely ignore the effects on
consumers, protectionist policies would produce many losers
in the U.S. industrial sector.
And Trump can't ignore consumer interests, either; if
nothing else, Walmart employs 1.5 million people in America,
i.e. 30 times the total number of US coal miners.
So any attempt on Trump's part to get real about trade
will run into fierce opposition, not from the kind of people
his supporters love to hate, but from major business
interests. Is he really ready for that?
So far, at least, the Trump trade agenda, such as it is,
has involved tweeting at companies, telling them to keep jobs
here, then claiming credit for any seemingly job-creating
actions they take. And that got him a couple of favorable
news cycles. In practice, however, it means little or
nothing. And even tweet-and-photo-op policy seems to be
fading out: companies that might have wanted to help Trump
puff himself up a couple of months ago are likely to be a lot
less accommodating to Mr. Can't-Pass-A-Health-Bill, with his
36 percent approval rating.
All of this suggests that on trade, as on everything else
substantive, Trump_vs_deep_state is going to be all huffing and puffing
with very little to show for it. But there is one observation
that gives me pause - namely, Trump's growing need to find
some way to change the subject away from his administration's
death spiral. Domestic policy is stalled; the Russia story is
getting closer by the day; even Republicans are starting to
lose their fear of standing up to the man they
not-so-secretly despise. What's he going to do?
Well, the classic answer of collapsing juntas is the
Malvinas solution: rally the nation by creating a foreign
confrontation of some kind. Usually this involves a shooting
war; but maybe a trade war would serve the same purpose.
In other words, never mind economic nationalism and all
that. If Trump does do something drastic on trade, it won't
be driven by his economic theories, it will be driven by his
plunging approval rating.
The Bloomberg story is an important one but did they have to
have this as their first example?
But now the pace is
picking back up. Illinois Tool Works Inc. will close an
auto-parts plant in Mazon, Illinois, this month and head to
Ciudad Juarez."
Illinois Tool Works is in a battle with the IRS over its
"earnings stripping" which is a way to dodge U.S. taxes.
Yeltsin sold Russian industry to foreigh interests for pennies on a dollar. Gave up natural
resposes for peanuts, on essentially colonial terms. That how Us oil companies got to Sakhalin
island.
The first ever Russian production sharing agreement was signed in the framework of the Sakhalin-2
project in 1994.
In foreign policy Yeltsin behaves like a drunk puppet of Clinton. His foreign minister Kozirev
( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrei_Kozyrev
) was nicknamed by US press "Mister Yes".
A comprador is a "person who acts as an agent for foreign organizations engaged in investment,
trade, or economic or political exploitation". A comprador is a native manager of European business
houses in East and South East Asia, and, by extension, social groups that play broadly similar
roles in other parts of the world.
Lumpenbourgeoisie is a term used primarily in the context of colonial and neocolonial elites
in Latin America, which became heavily dependent on and supportive of the neocolonial powers.
"Lumpenbourgeoisie" is a more correct term as for Yeltsin entourage then "lumpen elite". Sorry
about that.
But "comprador" also is a legitimate term for describing this phenomena. It originated in Marxism
and means "groups and classes in the developing world in subordinate to imperial power interests"
== quote from Wikipedia ==
In Marxism, the term comprador bourgeoisie was later applied to similar trading-class in regions
outside of East Asia.[5][6][7][8]
With the emergence (or re-emergence) of globalization, the term comprador has reentered the
lexicon to denote trading groups and classes in the developing world in subordinate but mutually
advantageous relationships with metropolitan capital. The Egyptian Marxist Samir Amin has discussed
the role of compradors in the contemporary global economy in his recent work.[9] In addition,
the Indian economist, Ashok Mitra, has accused the owners and managers of firms attached to the
Indian software industry of being compradors.[10] Growing identification of the software industry
in India with comprador 'qualities' has led to the labeling of certain persons associated with
the industry as 'dot.compradors'.[11]
== end of quote ==
But meaning all those terms is essentially the same -- part of the elite acting not in interests
of the county, but some imperial foreign powers and content with neo-colonial role of their country.
In some sense neoliberal governments also can be called "lumpen elite" as they are subservient
to transnational corporations, not so much interests of their own country population.
But I would draw analogies between Weimar government and Yeltsin regime. In both case countries
faced huge financial outflows (reparations in one case, "economic rape" in another), hyperinflation,
mass impoverishment of population, disappearance of middle class, and high unemployment.
To a certain extent that was true about Obama regime in 2008-2010.
Yeltin Russia was really a "failed country". Government employees and government workers were
not paid for many months, average longevity for males dropped below 60. And Russian neoliberals
(such as Yegor Gaidar( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yegor_Gaidar
an object of loathing among ordinary Russians who lost everything during the neoliberal privatization,
Anatoly Chubais -- the most hated person in Russia, oligarchs such as Berezovsky, Gusinsky ) who
came to power with Yeltsin tried to ally with foreign powers in order to secure what they stole
from Russian people. Rephrasing Obama, only the USA stand between them and pitchforks. BTW Chubais
is (or was) a member of the Advisory Council for JPMorgan.
It rather funny and tragic that criminals that stole money from Russians and than managed to
escape to the West with their money already in Western banks instantly become fighters for democracy
-- I would call this "Classic Neoliberal Metamorphose" (CMM). Berezovsky is one example here.
Very convenient, useful for the pressure on Russian government, and you do not return the money
:-)
A very interesting variant of the "rule of law".
In a sense Trump is more similar to Putin than Yeltsin. Both accidentally came to power on the
wave of dis-illusion of the mass of population in previous administration and dramatic loss of
"good" jobs.
Tell me, why should losses in the last ten years be averaged
in to a divisor intended to have meaning to determine price
relative to some measure of earning power, which is a future
quantity?
If not good answer, disregard Shiller's CAPE. He
had two good hits, but this one is a whiff.
Good point. Let's apply this to current trade policy. China
was using currency manipulation in 2006 to boost its net
exports. They have not since. And yet some mental midgets
think this is relevant for 2017. Not quite.
The Shiller 10-year price-earnings ratio * is currently
29.02, so the inverse or the earnings rate is 3.45%. The
dividend yield is 1.93. So an expected yearly return over the
coming 10 years would be 3.45 + 1.93 or 5.38% provided the
price-earnings ratio stays the same and before investment
costs.
Against the 5.38% yearly expected return on stock over the
coming 10 years, the current 10-year Treasury bond yield is
2.39%.
The risk premium for stocks is 5.38 - 2.39 or 2.99%.
Yes, There Really Are Things We Can Do to Reduce the Trade Deficit
Donald Trump's bluster about imposing large tariffs and force companies to make things in America
has led to backlash where we have people saying things to the effect that we are in a global economy
and we just can't do anything about shifting from foreign produced items to domestically produced
items. Paul Krugman's blogpost * on trade can be seen in this light, although it is not exactly what
he say and he surely knows better.
The post points out that imports account for a large percentage of the cost of many of the goods
we produce here. This means that if we raise the price of imports, we also make it more expensive
to produce goods in the United States.
This is of course true, but that doesn't mean that higher import prices would not lead to a shift
towards domestic production. For example, if we take the case of transport equipment he highlights,
if all the parts that we imported cost 20 percent more, then over time we would expect car producers
in the United States to produce with a larger share of domestically produced parts than would otherwise
be the case. This doesn't mean that imported parts go to zero, or even that they necessarily fall,
but just that they would be less than would be the case if import prices were 20 percent lower. This
is pretty much basic economics -- at a higher price we buy less.
While arbitrary tariffs are not a good way to raise the relative price of imports, we do have
an obvious tool that is designed for exactly this purpose. We can reduce the value of the dollar
against the currencies of our trading partners. This is probably best done through negotiations,
** which would inevitably involve trade-offs (e.g. less pressure to enforce U.S. patents and copyrights
and less concern about access for the U.S. financial industry). Loud threats against our trading
partners are likely to prove counter-productive. (We should also remove the protectionist barriers
that keep our doctors and dentists from enjoying the full benefits of international competition.)
Anyhow, we can do something about our trade deficits if had a president who thought seriously
about the issue. As it is, the current occupant of the White House seems to not know which way is
up when it comes to trade.
The post points out that imports account for a large percentage of the cost of many of the
goods we produce here. This means that if we raise the price of imports, we also make it more
expensive to produce goods in the United States.
== end of quote ==
People who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones ...
The problems is that many strategically important, high technology components production
is offshored.
Is anything ever going to happen on trade, Trump's
signature issue other than immigration? As Matt Yglesias
notes, so far almost nothing has. * Bloomberg tells us that
companies are back to the usual business of moving jobs to
Mexico, ** after a brief hiatus - unclear whether there was
any real pause, or just a pause in announcements, but in any
case CEOs seem to have decided that the North American Free
Trade Agreement isn't under much threat.
True, Trump is tweeting threats about the China trade, ***
and maybe something big will happen after Mar-a-Lago. But
that gets us to the question, is Trump actually in a position
to pursue the trade issue in any serious way?
My answer is probably not - except as a move taken out of
political desperation.
The starting point for any such discussion has to be the
observation that during the campaign, when Trump talked
trade, he had no idea what he was talking about - no more
than he did on health care, or taxes, or coal, or .
Specifically, Trump seemed to have two false ideas in mind:
1. Existing trade agreements are obviously and bigly
unfair to the United States, putting us at a disadvantage.
2. Restricting trade would be good for America and bad for
foreigners, so the threat of protectionism gives us lots of
leverage.
Now, reality: if you look for the obvious giveaways in
NAFTA, which the US can demand be redressed, you won't find
them. NAFTA brought down most trade barriers between us and
Mexico; there wasn't any marked asymmetry. In fact, since
Mexican tariffs were higher to start with, in effect Mexico
made more concessions than we did (although we were giving
access to a bigger market.) China is a bit more complicated -
arguably the Chinese effectively evade some World Trade
Organization rules. But even there it's not obvious what you
would demand from a new agreement.
Oh, and China currency manipulation was an issue 5 years
ago - but isn't now.
What about the effects of protectionism? Leave aside
Economics 101 gains from trade, and let's just talk about
business interests. The fact is that modern international
trade creates interdependence in a way that old-fashioned
trade didn't; stuff you export is often produced with a lot
of imported components, stuff you import often indirectly
includes a lot of your own exports. Here's the domestic share
of value added in transport equipment:
[Graph]
When we buy autos from Mexico, only about half the value
added is Mexican, with most of the rest coming from the US -
so if you restrict those imports, a lot of U.S. production
workers will be hurt. If we restrict imports of components
from Mexico, we're going to raise the costs of U.S. producers
who export to other markets; again, a lot of U.S. jobs will
be hit. So even if you completely ignore the effects on
consumers, protectionist policies would produce many losers
in the U.S. industrial sector.
And Trump can't ignore consumer interests, either; if
nothing else, Walmart employs 1.5 million people in America,
i.e. 30 times the total number of US coal miners.
So any attempt on Trump's part to get real about trade
will run into fierce opposition, not from the kind of people
his supporters love to hate, but from major business
interests. Is he really ready for that?
So far, at least, the Trump trade agenda, such as it is,
has involved tweeting at companies, telling them to keep jobs
here, then claiming credit for any seemingly job-creating
actions they take. And that got him a couple of favorable
news cycles. In practice, however, it means little or
nothing. And even tweet-and-photo-op policy seems to be
fading out: companies that might have wanted to help Trump
puff himself up a couple of months ago are likely to be a lot
less accommodating to Mr. Can't-Pass-A-Health-Bill, with his
36 percent approval rating.
All of this suggests that on trade, as on everything else
substantive, Trump_vs_deep_state is going to be all huffing and puffing
with very little to show for it. But there is one observation
that gives me pause - namely, Trump's growing need to find
some way to change the subject away from his administration's
death spiral. Domestic policy is stalled; the Russia story is
getting closer by the day; even Republicans are starting to
lose their fear of standing up to the man they
not-so-secretly despise. What's he going to do?
Well, the classic answer of collapsing juntas is the
Malvinas solution: rally the nation by creating a foreign
confrontation of some kind. Usually this involves a shooting
war; but maybe a trade war would serve the same purpose.
In other words, never mind economic nationalism and all
that. If Trump does do something drastic on trade, it won't
be driven by his economic theories, it will be driven by his
plunging approval rating.
"... There's the Keynes who said that "a somewhat comprehensive socialisation of investment will prove the only means of securing an approximation to full employment". ..."
Michael Roberts reminds us of something important – that Keynesian economics has severe shortcomings.
I agree.
For me, the problem with Keynes was what he didn't say. He was largely silent about three related
issues: class, power and profits, or least he dismissed them lightly:
"the problem of want and poverty and the economic struggle between classes and nations, is nothing
but a frightful muddle, a transitory and an unnecessary muddle. (Preface to Essays in Persuasion)"
It's no accident that it should have been so easy to find a Keynesian-neoclassical synthesis,
as both schools of thought ignored these matters.
This omission, however, has had several baleful effects.
One is that, in regarding full employment as a narrowly technical matter, Keynes overlooked the
fact that capitalists have a powerful interest in maintaining unemployment – both because it disciplines
workers, and because it gives capitalists influence upon the state to ensure that it maintains business
confidence. As Kalecki wrote (pdf):
Post-war Keynesianism broke down in the 1970s in part precisely for this reason: full employment
squeezed profits (pdf) which choked off growth.
Secondly, Keynes "paid even less attention to monopoly power than some of his neoclassical
colleagues."* The possibility that capitalists or bosses would use this power to extract massive
rents eluded him. (Again, of course, Kalecki was his superior on this point).
Thirdly, Keynes saw the problem of capitalism as basically one of cyclical swings which are
remediable by a few levers of macroeconomic policy. This might have been true once. But as Michael
says, it's doubtful now. Long-term stagnation might require different remedies.
One of these remedies, I suspect, lies in far greater worker democracy.
Which brings me to a fourth problem. In a sense, Keynesianism was profoundly conservative. In
believing that technocratic governments could provide workers with decent wages and full employment,
Keynesianism did away with the need for industrial democracy: one of the achievements of Keynes was
to eclipse movements such as guild socialism. It wasn't Keynes himself who said "the man in Whitehall
knows best" but one of his disciples, Douglas Jay – and that encapsulated a key part of Keynesian
ideology, its belief in top-down management.
Populism, of course, is a backlash against just this. That slogan "take back control" and the
dismissal of experts represent a rejection of Keynesianism; the baby of decent macroeconomic policy
is being thrown out with the bathwater of elitism. It's far from clear that Keynesianism has the
intellectual or political resources to fight back.
Now, at this stage we might channel Leijonhufvud (pdf). The Keynes I'm thinking of here is the
capitalist-friendly one. But there's another Keynes.
There's the Keynes who said that "a somewhat
comprehensive socialisation of investment will prove the only means of securing an approximation
to full employment".
And there's the one who argued in the best chapter in the General Theory
that bosses do not and cannot know what they're doing.
It's this Keynes that deserves to have a lasting influence.
* Howard and King, A History of Marxian Economics voll II, p101.
["The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money" is a
lot for anyone to absorb it all. Sometimes even a few sentences
of it can be beyond the depth of many readers. My favorite from
Chapter 12 is as follows.]
...Of the maxims of orthodox finance none, surely, is more
anti-social than the fetish of liquidity, the doctrine that it
is a positive virtue on the part of investment institutions to
concentrate their resources upon the holding of "liquid" securities.
It forgets that there is no such thing as liquidity of investment
for the community as a whole. The social object of skilled investment
should be to defeat the dark forces of time and ignorance which
envelop our future. The actual, private object of the most skilled
investment to-day is "to beat the gun", as the Americans so well
express it, to outwit the crowd, and to pass the bad, or depreciating,
half-crown to the other fellow.
This battle of wits to anticipate the basis of conventional
valuation a few months hence, rather than the prospective yield
of an investment over a long term of years, does not even require
gulls amongst the public to feed the maws of the professional;
- it can be played by professionals amongst themselves. Nor is
it necessary that anyone should keep his simple faith in the
conventional basis of valuation having any genuine long-term
validity. For it is, so to speak, a game of Snap, of Old Maid,
of Musical Chairs - a pastime in which he is victor who says
Snap neither too soon nor too late, who passes the Old Maid to
his neighbour before the game is over, who secures a chair for
himself when the music stops. These games can be played with
zest and enjoyment, though all the players know that it is the
Old Maid which is circulating, or that when the music stops some
of the players will find themselves unseated.
Or, to change the metaphor slightly, professional investment
may be likened to those newspaper competitions in which the competitors
have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs,
the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly
corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as
a whole; so that each competitor has to pick, not those faces
which he himself finds prettiest, but those which he thinks likeliest
to catch the fancy of the other competitors, all of whom are
looking at the problem from the same point of view. It is not
a case of choosing those which, to the best of one's judgment,
are really the prettiest, nor even those which average opinion
genuinely thinks the prettiest. We have reached the third degree
where we devote our intelligences to anticipating what average
opinion expects the average opinion to be. And there are some,
I believe, who practise the fourth, fifth and higher degrees.
If the reader interjects that there must surely be large profits
to be gained from the other players in the long run by a skilled
individual who, unperturbed by the prevailing pastime, continues
to purchase investments on the best genuine long-term expectations
he can frame, he must be answered, first of all, that there are,
indeed, such serious-minded individuals and that it makes a vast
difference to an investment market whether or not they predominate
in their influence over the game-players. But we must also add
that there are several factors which jeopardise the predominance
of such individuals in modern investment markets. Investment
based on genuine long-term expectation is so difficult to-day
as to be scarcely practicable. He who attempts it must surely
lead much more laborious days and run greater risks than he who
tries to guess better than the crowd how the crowd will behave;
and, given equal intelligence, he may make more disastrous mistakes.
There is no clear evidence from experience that the investment
policy which is socially advantageous coincides with that which
is most profitable. It needs more intelligence to defeat the
forces of time and our ignorance of the future than to beat the
gun. Moreover, life is not long enough; - human nature desires
quick results, there is a peculiar zest in making money quickly,
and remoter gains are discounted by the average man at a very
high rate. The game of professional investment is intolerably
boring and over-exacting to anyone who is entirely exempt from
the gambling instinct; whilst he who has it must pay to this
propensity the appropriate toll. Furthermore, an investor who
proposes to ignore near-term market fluctuations needs greater
resources for safety and must not operate on so large a scale,
if at all, with borrowed money - a further reason for the higher
return from the pastime to a given stock of intelligence and
resources. Finally it is the long-term investor, he who most
promotes the public interest, who will in practice come in for
most criticism, wherever investment funds are managed by committees
or boards or banks.[4] For it is in the essence of his behaviour
that he should be eccentric, unconventional and rash in the eyes
of average opinion. If he is successful, that will only confirm
the general belief in his rashness; and if in the short run he
is unsuccessful, which is very likely, he will not receive much
mercy. Worldly wisdom teaches that it is better for reputation
to fail conventionally than to succeed unconventionally.
(5) So far we have had chiefly in mind the state of confidence
of the speculator or speculative investor himself and may have
seemed to be tacitly assuming that, if he himself is satisfied
with the prospects, he has unlimited command over money at the
market rate of interest. This is, of course, not the case. Thus
we must also take account of the other facet of the state of
confidence, namely, the confidence of the lending institutions
towards those who seek to borrow from them, sometimes described
as the state of credit. A collapse in the price of equities,
which has had disastrous reactions on the marginal efficiency
of capital, may have been due to the weakening either of speculative
confidence or of the state of credit. But whereas the weakening
of either is enough to cause a collapse, recovery requires the
revival of both. For whilst the weakening of credit is sufficient
to bring about a collapse, its strengthening, though a necessary
condition of recovery, is not a sufficient condition.
VI
These considerations should not lie beyond the purview of
the economist. But they must be relegated to their right perspective.
If I may be allowed to appropriate the term speculation for the
activity of forecasting the psychology of the market, and the
term enterprise for the activity of forecasting the prospective
yield of assets over their whole life, it is by no means always
the case that speculation predominates over enterprise. As the
organisation of investment markets improves, the risk of the
predominance of speculation does, however, increase. In one of
the greatest investment markets in the world, namely, New York,
the influence of speculation (in the above sense) is enormous.
Even outside the field of finance, Americans are apt to be unduly
interested in discovering what average opinion believes average
opinion to be; and this national weakness finds its nemesis in
the stock market. It is rare, one is told, for an American to
invest, as many Englishmen still do, "for income"; and he will
not readily purchase an investment except in the hope of capital
appreciation. This is only another way of saying that, when he
purchases an investment, the American is attaching his hopes,
not so much to its prospective yield, as to a favourable change
in the conventional basis of valuation, i.e. that he is, in the
above sense, a speculator. Speculators may do no harm as bubbles
on a steady stream of enterprise. But the position is serious
when enterprise becomes the bubble on a whirlpool of speculation.
When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product
of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.
The measure of success attained by Wall Street, regarded as an
institution of which the proper social purpose is to direct new
investment into the most profitable channels in terms of future
yield, cannot be claimed as one of the outstanding triumphs of
laissez-faire capitalism - which is not surprising, if I am right
in thinking that the best brains of Wall Street have been in
fact directed towards a different object.
These tendencies are a scarcely avoidable outcome of our having
successfully organised "liquid" investment markets. It is usually
agreed that casinos should, in the public interest, be inaccessible
and expensive. And perhaps the same is true of Stock Exchanges.
That the sins of the London Stock Exchange are less than those
of Wall Street may be due, not so much to differences in national
character, as to the fact that to the average Englishman Throgmorton
Street is, compared with Wall Street to the average American,
inaccessible and very expensive. The jobber's "turn", the high
brokerage charges and the heavy transfer tax payable to the Exchequer,
which attend dealings on the London Stock Exchange, sufficiently
diminish the liquidity of the market (although the practice of
fortnightly accounts operates the other way) to rule out a large
proportion of the transactions characteristic of Wall Street.[5]
The introduction of a substantial Government transfer tax on
all transactions might prove the most serviceable reform available,
with a view to mitigating the predominance of speculation over
enterprise in the United States.
The spectacle of modern investment markets has sometimes moved
me towards the conclusion that to make the purchase of an investment
permanent and indissoluble, like marriage, except by reason of
death or other grave cause, might be a useful remedy for our
contemporary evils. For this would force the investor to direct
his mind to the long-term prospects and to those only. But a
little consideration of this expedient brings us up against a
dilemma, and shows us how the liquidity of investment markets
often facilitates, though it sometimes impedes, the course of
new investment. For the fact that each individual investor flatters
himself that his commitment is "liquid" (though this cannot be
true for all investors collectively) calms his nerves and makes
him much more willing to run a risk. If individual purchases
of investments were rendered illiquid, this might seriously impede
new investment, so long as alternative ways in which to hold
his savings are available to the individual. This is the dilemma.
So long as it is open to the individual to employ his wealth
in hoarding or lending money, the alternative of purchasing actual
capital assets cannot be rendered sufficiently attractive (especially
to the man who does not manage the capital assets and knows very
little about them), except by organising markets wherein these
assets can be easily realised for money...
[My solution to this problem is to place a very high tax rate
on capital gains with allowances for discounts per year of holding
term possible further indexed by annual inflation rates of the
basis. OTOH, crediting shareholders' taxes on dividends by the
amount of corporate tax paid on those dividends by the issuer
makes holding investments more attractive just as much as a high
capital gains tax rate tiered by holding tern makes selling investment
assets less attractive.
In any case Keynes definitely realized that capitalism had
its problems and anti-social incentives.]
Venezuela Supreme Court Seizes Power from Legislature"
"President Nicolás Maduro further consolidated his one-man
rule over Venezuela on Thursday as the loyalist Supreme Court
effectively dissolved the legislature, seizing power to write
laws itself, The New York Times reported. According to the
high court's ruling, lawmakers were "in a situation of
contempt" in opposition to the leftist ruling party, and that
the justices would need to take over in order to "ensure that
parliamentary powers were exercised directly by this Chamber,
or by the body that the Chamber chooses." According to the
Times, one opposition legislator declared that the court
"kidnapped the Constitution, they have kidnapped our rights,
they have kidnapped our liberty." Another lamented: "It's
demonstrating before the world the authoritarianism here. The
people chose us through a popular vote."
"Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decrease to 258,000"
by Bill McBride...3/30/2017...08:40:00 AM
The DOL reported:
..... In the week ending March 25, the advance figure for
seasonally adjusted initial claims was 258,000, a decrease of
3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 261,000.
The 4-week moving average was 254,250, an increase of 7,750
from the previous week's unrevised average of 246,500.
The previous week was revised up.
...This was above the consensus forecast.
The low level of claims suggests relatively few layoffs."
Reply
Thursday, March 30, 2017 at 05:40 PM
libezkova said in reply to im1dc...
This "seasonally adjusted" magic is more like another flavor
of statistical fraud... Because assumptions behind those
adjustments are so wrong they are not even discussed.
Also McJobs and Walmart jobs -- anything paying below
subsistence level are not actually jobs.
It's more like slavery. That's another nail in the coffin
of "free market" ideology. What is so free in a person taking
job in Wal Mart? Or any other McJob? That's neo-feudalism
with Wal Mart as a huge feudal landlord and mass of
desperate, hungry peasants.
Please note that around $100K jobs in the USA are needed just
to accommodate growing workforce.
How Many Jobs Are Needed to Keep Up with Population
Growth?
Submitted by Robert Oak on September 8, 2012 - 6:45pm
The press quotes all sorts of figures for the number of
monthly job gains needed to keep up with population growth.
We see numbers like 80,000, 100,000, 125,000 and 175,000
thrown around like statistical snow as the number of jobs
needed each month just to keep up. What's the right one? How
many jobs are needed each month just to keep up with
population growth?
The actual monthly amount can be calculated and the
Atlanta Fed even did us a huge favor by publishing an
interactive monthly jobs calculator so you can go check for
yourself. This month shows we need 104,116 payroll jobs to
maintain the same unemployment rate of 8.1% with all of the
other same terrible conditions the state of employment is in.
Reply
Thursday, March 30, 2017 at 08:06 PM
General caveat: in the absence of generally accepted "objective" categories, the ICD/DCM "deviancy"
descriptions skew heavily towards (or certainly smell of) lack of expected social conformance.
(Even less than a century ago, it was not uncommon that "uncooperative" relatives or wives, or
reticent individuals were committed to get rid of them, strip them of their civil rights, or obtain
control of their assets - with the cooperation of the public and private sector psychiatric profession).
That's not to say they don't have a basis in fact.
W.r.t. sociopathy, a characterization I found useful was "treating other people like video
game characters" (and the word "pawn" (in the sense of chess) pretty much suggests itself). It
is consistent with the criteria you listed.
Other than that, it is a sliding scale/shades of gray, not a yes/no kind of thing.
"
W.r.t. sociopathy, a characterization I found useful was "treating other people like video
game characters" (and the word "pawn" (in the sense of chess) pretty much suggests itself).
It is consistent with the criteria you listed.
Other than that, it is a sliding scale/shades of gray, not a yes/no kind of thing.
"
That's a very good observation. Thank you !
Treating people like video game characters = lack of compassion = objectification
"(Even less than a century ago, it was not uncommon that "uncooperative" relatives or wives,
or reticent individuals were committed to get rid of them, strip them of their civil rights,
or obtain control of their assets - with the cooperation of the public and private sector psychiatric
profession).
"
Of course you can create a cliché out of any definition and use it against people you do not
like. But sociopathy is a real danger in modern society, especially in terms of "high functioning
sociopaths" (if you look under this angle at Clinton family you will find some interesting and
disturbing correlations) which neoliberalism implicitly promotes as it by objectifying everything.
And in this sense neoliberalism is a sociopathic ideology == natural, very convenient ideology
for sociopaths.
It is my view that money centered financial networks in the advanced economies now find profits and ease using the huge financial
asset trading marketplaces, the ones that now dwarf the ones that existed at the end of the Clinton Admin because of an explosion
under the republican period that then followed. Returns are low but at the magnitudes and efficiencies of these marketplaces there
is a lot of money to be made.
Why invest in real businesses and take on its many risks, and if you want to diversify to seek higher returns then invest outside
the advanced economies (especially when you consider their stagnant populations and aging characteristics).
We do not need these financial asset marketplaces to grow at the accelerated rates we saw under Bush. We have seen the outcomes
if the moral hazards here. The US needs public law to regulate so that the financial system is investing more in real business,
at the very least by not subsidizing this system so that it encourages this idle, financial 'investing' .
Almost everyone disagrees with you. Yes fiscal policy would be better, but monetary policy works and isn't just free money for
speculators.
You shred your reputation when you write things like that and you provoke hostility.
The Fed is rationing demand. Higher demand means tight labor markets and more worker barging power.
This happened in the late 90s.
Now the Fed is rationing credit and demand so that the economy isn't running "too" hot and increasing wages don't cut into
profits.
If it was just reducing the amount of free money going to speculators, that would be a good thing.
Monetary policy to fiscal policy is like the ACA to single payer.
Single payer would be better but the ACA gave 20 million health care and insurance. That's a big deal even if you can't admit
it. The ACA also helped make health insurance a universal right in sense.
Talk of yields going negative? If one wishes to borrow in Euros for terms like 5 years and if one's credit rating is AAA, one
can get very close to a zero rate.
Tips should be managed
to maintain a zero real value
Tips for anyone unaware here
btw
are treasuries that adjust return for inflation
Frank Ramsey long ago demonstrated the role of a positive real rate of interest
It's a purely dynamic rent paid out to ration funds while funds are scarce
After an adequate period of social f accumulation
Socially available real funds equal or exceed Net Investment opportunities
at that point zero real rates are "natural" because he opportunity
cost of all investments with a positive return is less hen available funding
We already live in a planned economy. Why not make it a democratic one?
by J. W. Mason
At its most basic level, finance is simply bookkeeping - a record of money obligations and commitments. But finance is also
a form of planning - a set of institutions for allocating claims on the social product.
The fusion of these two logically distinct functions - bookkeeping and planning - is as old as capitalism, and has troubled
the bourgeois conscience for almost as long. The creation of purchasing power through bank loans is hard to square with the central
ideological claim about capitalism, that market prices offer a neutral measure of some preexisting material reality. The manifest
failure of capitalism to conform to ideas of how this natural system should behave is blamed on the ability of banks (abetted
by the state) to drive market prices away from their true values.
Somehow separating these two functions of the banking system - bookkeeping and planning - is the central thread running through
250 years of monetary reform proposals by bourgeois economists, populists, and cranks. We can trace it from David Hume, who believed
a "perfect circulation" was one where gold alone was used for payments, and who doubted whether bank loans should be permitted
at all; to the nineteenth-century advocates of a strict gold standard or the real bills doctrine, two competing rules that were
supposed to restore automaticity to the creation of bank credit; to Proudhon's proposals for giving money an objective basis in
labor time; to Wicksell's prescient fears of the instability of an unregulated system of bank money; to the oft-revived proposals
for 100 percent reserve banking; to Milton Friedman's proposals for a strict money-supply growth rule; to today's orthodoxy that
dreams of a central bank following an inviolable "policy rule" that reproduces the "natural interest rate."
What these all admonitions and proposals have in common is that they seek to restore objectivity to the money system, to legislate
into existence the supposedly real values that lie behind money prices. They seek to compel money to actually be what it is imagined
to be in ideology: an objective measure of value that reflects the real value of commodities, free of the human judgments of bankers
and politicians.
Socialists reject this fantasy. We know that the development of capitalism has from the beginning been a process of "financialization"
- of the extension of money claims on human activity, and of the representation of the social world in terms of money payments
and commitments.
We know that there was no precapitalist world of production and exchange on which money and then credit were later superimposed:
Networks of money claims are the substrate on which commodity production has grown and been organized. And we know that the social
surplus under capitalism is not allocated by "markets," despite the fairy tales of economists. Surplus is allocated by banks and
other financial institutions, whose activities are coordinated by planners, not markets.
However decentralized in theory, market production is in fact organized through a highly centralized financial system. And
where something like competitive markets do exist, it is usually thanks to extensive state management, from anti-trust laws to
all the elaborate machinery set up by the ACA to prop up a rickety market for private health insurance. As both Marx and Keynes
recognized, the tendency of capitalism is to develop more social, collective forms of production, enlarging the domain of conscious
planning and diminishing the zone of the market. (A point also understood by some smarter, more historically minded liberal economists
today.) The preservation of the form of markets becomes an increasingly utopian project, requiring more and more active intervention
by government. Think of the enormous public financing, investment, and regulation required for our "private" provision of housing,
education, transportation, etc.
In a world where production is guided by conscious planning - public or private - it simply doesn't make sense to think of
money values as reflecting the objective outcome of markets, or of financial claims as simply a record of "real'' flows of income
and expenditure.
But the "illusion of the real," as Perry Mehrling calls it, is very hard to resist. We must constantly remind ourselves that
market values have never been, and can never be, an objective measure of human needs and possibilities. We must remember that
values measured in money - prices and quantities, production and consumption - have no existence independent of the market transactions
that give them quantitative form.
It follows that socialism cannot be described in terms of the quantity of commodities produced, or the distribution of them.
Socialism is liberation from the commodity form. It is defined not by the disposition of things but by the condition of human
beings. It is the progressive extension of the domain of human freedom, of that part of our lives governed by love and reason.
There are many critics of finance who see it as the enemy of a more humane or authentic capitalism. They may be managerial
reformers (Veblen's "Soviet of engineers") who oppose finance as a parasite on productive enterprises; populists who hate finance
as the destroyer of their own small capitals; or sincere believers in market competition who see finance as a collector of illegitimate
rents. On a practical level there is much common ground between these positions and a socialist program. But we can't accept the
idea that finance is a distortion of some true market values that are natural, objective, or fair.
Finance should be seen as a moment in the capitalist process, integral to it but with two contradictory faces. On the one hand,
it is finance (as a concrete institution) that generates and enforces the money claims against social persons of all kinds - human
beings, firms, nations - that extend and maintain the logic of commodity production. (Student loans reinforce the discipline of
wage labor, sovereign debt upholds the international division of labor.)
Yet on the other hand, the financial system is also where conscious planning takes its most fully developed form under capitalism.
Banks are, in Schumpeter's phrase, the private equivalent of Gosplan, the Soviet planning agency. Their lending decisions determine
what new projects will get a share of society's resources, and suspend - or enforce - the "judgment of the market" on money-losing
enterprises.
A socialist program must respond to both these faces of finance. We oppose the power of finance if we want to progressively
reduce the extent to which human life is organized around the accumulation of money. We embrace the planning already inherent
in finance because we want to expand the domain of conscious choice, and reduce the domain of blind necessity.
The development of finance reveals the progressive displacement of market coordination by planning. Capitalism means production
for profit; but in concrete reality profit criteria are always subordinate to financial criteria. The judgment of the market has
force only insofar as it is executed by finance. The world is full of businesses whose revenues exceed their costs, but are forced
to scale back or shut down because of the financial claims against them. The world is also full of businesses that operate for
years, or indefinitely, with costs in excess of their revenues, thanks to their access to finance. And the institutions that make
these financing decisions do so based on their own subjective judgment, constrained ultimately not by some objective criteria
of value, but by the terms set by the central bank.
There is a basic contradiction between the principles of competition and finance. Competition is supposed to be a form of natural
selection: Firms that make profits reinvest them and thus grow, while firms that make losses can't invest and must shrink and
eventually disappear. This is supposed to be a great advantage of markets over planning. But the whole point of finance is to
break this link between profits yesterday and investment today. The surplus paid out as dividends and interest is available for
investment anywhere in the economy, not just where it was generated.
Conversely, entrepreneurs can undertake new projects that have never been profitable in the past, if they can convince someone
to bankroll them. Competition looks backward: The resources you have today depend on how you've performed in the past. Finance
looks forward: The resources you have today depend on how you're expected (by someone!) to perform in the future. So, contrary
to the idea of firms rising and falling through natural selection, finance's darlings - from Amazon to Uber and the whole unicorn
herd - can invest and grow indefinitely without ever showing a profit. This is also supposed to be a great advantage of markets.
In the frictionless world imagined by economists, the supercession of competition by finance is already carried to its limit.
Firms do not control or depend on their own surplus. All surplus is allocated centrally, by financial markets. All funds for investment
come from financial markets and all profits immediately return in money form to these markets. This has two contradictory implications.
On the one hand, it eliminates any awareness of the firm as a social organism, of the activity the firm carries out to reproduce
itself, of its pursuit of ends other than maximum profit for its "owners."
The firm, in effect, is born new each day by the grace of those financing it. But by the same token, the logic of profit maximization
loses its objective basis. The quasi-evolutionary process of competition ceases to operate if the firm's own profits are no longer
its source of investment finance, but instead flow into a common pool. In this world, which firms grow and which shrink depends
on the decisions of the financial planners who allocate capital between them.
The contradiction between market production and socialized finance becomes more acute as the pools of finance themselves combine
or become more homogenous. This was a key point for turn-of-the-last-century Marxists like Hilferding (and Lenin), but it's also
behind the recent fuss in the business press over the rise of index funds. These funds hold all shares of all corporations listed
on a given stock index; unlike actively managed funds they make no effort to pick winners, but hold shares in multiple competing
firms.
Per one recent study, "The probability that two randomly selected firms in the same industry from the S&P 1500 have a common
shareholder with at least 5% stakes in both firms increased from less than 20% in 1999 to around 90% in 2014." The problem is
obvious: If corporations work for their shareholders, then why would they compete against each other if their shares are held
by the same funds?
Naturally, one proposed solution is more state intervention to preserve the form of markets, by limiting or disfavoring stock
ownership via broad funds. Another, and perhaps more logical, response is: If we are already trusting corporate managers to be
faithful agents of the rentier class as a whole, why not take the next step and make them agents of society in general?
And in any case the terms on which the financial system directs capital are ultimately set by the central bank. Its decisions
- monetary policy in the narrow sense, but also the terms on which financial institutions are regulated, and rescued in crises
- determine not only the overall pace of credit expansion but the criteria of profitability itself. This is acutely evident in
crises, but it's implicit in routine monetary policy as well. Unless lower interest rates turn some previously unprofitable projects
into profitable ones, how are they supposed to work?
At the same time, the legitimacy of the capitalist system - the ideological justification of its obvious injustice and waste
- comes from the idea that economic outcomes are determined by "the market," not by anyone's choice. So the central bank's planning
role has to be kept out of sight.
Central bankers themselves are quite aware of this aspect of their role. In the early 1980s, when the Fed was changing the
main instrument it used for monetary policy, officials there were concerned that their choice preserve the fiction that interest
rates were being set by the markets. As Fed governor Wayne Angell put it, it was essential to choose a technique that would "have
the camouflage of market forces at work."
Mainstream economics textbooks explicitly describe the long-term trajectory of capitalist economies in terms of an ideal planner,
who is setting output and prices for all eternity in order to maximize the general wellbeing. The contradiction between this macro
vision and the ideology of market competition is papered over by the assumption that over the long run this path is the same as
the "natural" one that would obtain in a perfect competitive market system without money or banks.
Outside of the academy, it's harder to sustain faith that the planners at the central bank are infallibly picking the outcomes
the market should have arrived at on its own. Central banks' critics on the right - and many on the left - understand clearly
that central banks are engaged in active planning, but see it as inherently illegitimate. Their belief in "natural" market outcomes
goes with fantasies of a return to some monetary standard independent of human judgment - gold or bitcoin.
Socialists, who see through central bankers' facade of neutral expertise and recognize their close association with private finance,
may be tempted by similar ideas. But the path toward socialism runs the other way. We don't seek to organize human life on an
objective grid of market values, free of the distorting influence of finance and central banks.
We seek rather to bring this already-existing conscious planning into the light, to make it into a terrain of politics, and to
direct it toward meeting human needs rather than reinforcing relations of domination. In short: the socialization of finance.
In the US context, this analysis suggests a transitional program perhaps along the following lines:
Decommodify Money
While there is no way to separate money and markets from finance, that does not mean that the routine functions of the monetary
system must be a source of private profit. Shifting responsibility for the basic monetary plumbing of the system to public or
quasi-public bodies is a non-reformist reform - it addresses some of the directly visible abuse and instability of the existing
monetary system while pointing the way toward more profound transformations.
In particular, this could involve:
1. A public payments system.
In the not too distant past, if I wanted to give you some money and you wanted to give me a good or service, we didn't have
to pay a third party for permission to make the trade. But as electronic payments have replaced cash, routine payments have become
a source of profit. Interchanges and the rest of the routine plumbing of the payments system should be a public monopoly, just
as currency is.
2. Postal banking.
Banking services should similarly be provided through post offices, as in many other countries. Routine transactions accounts
(check and saving) are a service that can be straightforwardly provided by the state.
3. Public credit ratings, both for bonds and for individuals.
As information that, to perform its function, must be widely available, credit ratings are a natural object for public provision
even within the overarching logic of capitalism. This is also a challenge to the coercive, disciplinary function increasingly
performed by private credit ratings in the United States.
4. Public housing finance.
Mortgages for owner-occupied housing are another area where a patina of market transactions is laid over a system that is already
substantively public. The thirty-year mortgage market is entirely a creation of regulation, it is maintained by public market-makers,
and public bodies are largely and increasingly the ultimate lenders. Socialists have no interest in the cultivation of a hothouse
petty bourgeoisie through home ownership; but as long as the state does so, we demand that it be openly and directly rather than
disguised as private transactions.
5. Public retirement insurance.
Providing for old age is the other area, along with housing, where the state does the most to foster what Gerald Davis calls
the "capital fiction" - the conception of one's relationship to society in terms of asset ownership.
But here, unlike home ownership, social provision in the guise of financial claims has failed even on its own narrow terms. Many
working-class households in the United States and other rich countries do own their own houses, but only a tiny fraction can meet
their subsistence needs in old age out of private saving. At the same time, public retirement systems are much more fully developed
than public provision of housing. This suggests a program of eliminating existing programs to encourage private retirement saving,
and greatly expanding Social Security and similar social insurance systems.
Repress Finance
It's not the job of socialists to keep the big casino running smoothly. But as long as private financial institutions exist,
we cannot avoid the question of how to regulate them. Historically financial regulation has sometimes taken the form of "financial
repression," in which the types of assets held by financial institutions are substantially dictated by the state.
This allows credit to be directed more effectively to socially useful investment. It also allows policymakers to hold market interest
rates down, which - especially in the context of higher inflation - diminishes both the burden of debt and the power of creditors.
The exiting deregulated financial system already has very articulate critics; there's no need to duplicate their work with a detailed
reform proposal. But we can lay out some broad principles:
1. If it isn't permitted, it's forbidden.
Effective regulation has always depended on enumerating specific functions for specific institutions, and prohibiting anything
else. Otherwise it's too easy to bypass with something that is formally different but substantively equivalent. And whether or
not central banks are going to continue with their role as the main managers of aggregate demand, they also need this kind of
regulation to effectively control the flow of credit.
2. Protect functions, not institutions.
The political power of finance comes from the ability to threaten routine social bookkeeping, and the security of small property
owners. ("If we don't bail out the banks, the ATMs will shut down! What about your 401(k)?")
As long as private financial institutions perform socially necessary functions, policy should focus on preserving those functions
themselves, and not the institutions that perform them. This means that interventions should be as close as possible to the nonfinancial
end-user, and not on the games banks play among themselves. For example: deposit insurance.
3. Require large holdings of public debt.
The threat of the "bond vigilantes" against the US federal government has been wildly exaggerated, as was demonstrated for instance
by the debt-ceiling farce and downgrade of 2012. But for smaller governments - including state and local governments in the United
States - bond markets are not so easily ignored. And large holdings of public debt also reduce the frequency and severity of the
periodic financial crises which are, perversely, one of the main ways in which finance's social power is maintained.
4. Control overall debt levels with lower interest rates and higher inflation.
Household leverage in the United States has risen dramatically over the past thirty years; some believe that this is because debt
was needed to raise standards of living in the face of stagnant or declining real incomes.
But this isn't the case; slower income growth has simply meant slower growth in consumption. Rather, the main cause of rising
household debt over the past thirty years has been the combination of low inflation and continuing high interest rates for households.
Conversely, the most effective way to reduce the burden of debt - for households, and also for governments - is to hold interest
rates down while allowing inflation to rise.
As a corollary to financial repression, we can reject any moral claims on behalf of interest income as such. There is no right
to exercise a claim on the labor of others through ownership of financial assets. To the extent that the private provision of
socially necessary services like insurance and pensions is undermined by low interest rates, that is an argument for moving these
services to the public sector, not for increasing the claims of rentiers.
Democratize Central Banks
Central banks have always been central planners. Choices about interest rates, and the terms on which financial institutions
will be regulated and rescued, inevitably condition the profitability and the direction as well as level of productive activity.
This role has been concealed behind an ideology that imagines the central bank behaving automatically, according to a rule that
somehow reproduces the "natural" behavior of markets.
Central banks' own actions since 2008 have left this ideology in tatters. The immediate response to the crisis have forced central
banks to intervene more directly in credit markets, buying a wider range of assets and even replacing private financial institutions
to lend directly to nonfinancial businesses. Since then, the failure of conventional monetary policy has forced central banks
to inch unwillingly toward a broader range of interventions, directly channeling credit to selected borrowers.
This turn to "credit policy" represents an admission - grudging, but forced by events - that the anarchy of competition is
unable to coordinate production. Central banks cannot, as the textbooks imagine, stabilize the capitalist system by turning a
single knob labeled "money supply" or "interest rate." They must substitute their own judgment for market outcomes in a broad
and growing range of asset and credit markets.
The challenge now is to politicize central banks - to make them the object of public debate and popular pressure. In Europe,
the national central banks - which still perform their old functions, despite the common misperception that the European Central
Bank (ECB) is now the central bank of Europe - will be a central terrain of struggle for the next left government that seeks to
break with austerity and liberalism.
In the United States, we can dispense for good with the idea that monetary policy is a domain of technocratic expertise, and
bring into the open its program of keeping unemployment high in order to restrain wage growth and workers' power. As a positive
program, we might demand that the Fed aggressively use its existing legal authority to purchase municipal debt, depriving rentiers
of their power over financially constrained local governments as in Detroit and Puerto Rico, and more broadly blunting the power
of "the bond markets" as a constraint on popular politics at the state and local level. More broadly, central banks should be
held responsible for actively directing credit to socially useful ends.
Disempower Shareholders
Really existing capitalism consists of narrow streams of market transactions flowing between vast areas of non-market coordination.
A core function of finance is to act as the weapon in the hands of the capitalist class to enforce the logic of value on these
non-market structures. The claims of shareholders over nonfinancial businesses, and bondholders over national governments, ensure
that all these domains of human activity remain subordinate to the logic of accumulation. We want to see stronger defenses against
these claims - not because we have any faith in productive capitalists or national bourgeoisies, but because they occupy the space
in which politics is possible.
Specifically we should stand with corporations against shareholders. The corporation, as Marx long ago noted, is "the abolition
of the capitalist mode of production within the capitalist mode of production itself." Within the corporation, activity is coordinated
through plans, not markets; and the orientation of this activity is toward the production of a particular use-value rather than
money as such.
"The tendency of big enterprise," Keynes wrote, "is to socialize itself." The fundamental political function of finance is
to keep this tendency in check. Without the threat of takeovers and the pressure of shareholder activists, the corporation becomes
a space where workers and other stakeholders can contest control over production and the surplus it generates - a possibility
that capitalists never lose sight of.
Needless to say, this does not imply any attachment to the particular individuals at the top of the corporate hierarchy, who
today are most often actual or aspiring rentiers without any organic connection to the production process. Rather, it's a recognition
of the value of the corporation as a social organism; as a space structured by relationships of trust and loyalty, and by intrinsic
motivation and "professional conscience"; and as the site of consciously planned production of use-values.
The role of finance with respect to the modern corporation is not to provide it with resources for investment, but to ensure
that its conditional orientation toward production as an end in itself is ultimately subordinate to the accumulation of money.
Resisting this pressure is no substitute for other struggles, over the labor process and the division of resources and authority
within the corporation. (History gives many examples of production of use values as an end in itself, which is carried out under
conditions as coercive and alienated as under production for profit.) But resisting the pressure of finance creates more space
for those struggles, and for the evolution of socialism within the corporate form.
Close Borders to Money (and Open Them to People).
Just as shareholder power enforces the logic of accumulation on corporations, capital mobility does the same to states. In
the universities, we hear about the supposed efficiency of unrestrained capital flows, but in the political realm we hear more
their power to "discipline" national governments. The threat of capital flight and balance of payments crises protects the logic
of accumulation against incursions by national governments.
States can be vehicles for conscious control of the economy only insofar as financial claims across borders are limited. In
a world where capital flows are large and unrestricted, the concrete activity of production and reproduction must constantly adjust
itself to the changing whims of foreign investors.
This is incompatible with any strategy for development of the forces of production at the national level; every successful
case of late industrialization has depended on the conscious direction of credit through the national banking system. More than
that, the requirement that real activity accommodate cross-border financial flows is incompatible even with the stable reproduction
of capitalism in the periphery. We have learned this lesson many times in Latin America and elsewhere in the South, and are now
learning it again in Europe.
So a socialist program on finance should include support for efforts of national governments to delink from the global economy,
and to maintain or regain control over their financial systems. Today, such efforts are often connected to a politics of racism,
nativism, and xenophobia which we must uncompromisingly reject. But it is possible to move toward a world in which national borders
pose no barrier to people and ideas, but limit the movement of goods and are impassible barriers to private financial claims.
In the United States and other rich countries, it's also important to oppose any use of the authority - legal or otherwise
- of our own states to enforce financial claims against weaker states. Argentina and Greece, to take two recent examples, were
not forced to accept the terms of their creditors by the actions of dispersed private individuals through financial markets, but
respectively by the actions of Judge Griesa of the US Second Circuit and Trichet and Mario Draghi of the ECB. For peripheral states
to foster development and serve as vehicle for popular politics, they must insulate themselves from international financial markets.
But the power of those markets comes ultimately from the gunboats - figurative or literal - by which private financial claims
are enforced.
With respect to the strong states themselves, the markets have no hold except over the imagination. As we've seen repeatedly
in recent years - most dramatically in the debt-limit vaudeville of 2011-2013 - there are no "bond vigilantes"; the terms on which
governments borrow are fully determined by their own monetary authority. All that's needed to break the bond market's power here
is to recognize that it's already powerless.
In short, we should reject the idea of finance as an intrusion on a preexisting market order. We should resist the power of
finance as an enforcer of the logic of accumulation. And we should reclaim as a site of democratic politics the social planning
already carried out through finance.
Negative interest rates could be coming to America.
"We're taking a look at them ... I wouldn't take those off the table," Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said Thursday at
a Congressional hearing.
Yellen and other experts stress that the U.S. economy would have to get much worse before the Fed would contemplate such a
move.
But if the U.S. does go negative, it wouldn't be alone. Five central banks -- Denmark, the Eurozone, Sweden, Switzerland and
Japan -- now have negative interest rates. In fact, Sweden's central bank took its rates even deeper into negative territory on
Thursday.
Government versus private. You can stimulate the economy with government spending, you cannot maintain it.
I will take a shot for talking more private markets without specifically mentioning it.
Meanwhile, the only way you get to this point is if the economy is in a great deal of trouble(stagnation), and the way we got
there was because there is not enough borrowing by the government.
As usual mason digs deeper then the usual run of the mill
Technocrat mandarins and the rumbling herd of tenured goats
Bleeting from their compfy stalls inside the academy
I notice a slight over tilt here away from the role of markets
Markets remain the basis of our economy
Like
ballot boxes remain the basis of our political system
And markets specifically product and service markets
as the mediation of various roughly independent " plans "
Dole out results
Yes the credit system can over ride any market results
Market verdicts are often and even routinely reversed on appeal by finance
And there is no limit to the significance of this capacity
Nor are markets ever the same again once this capacity exists
But to black out markets is to make the system of Stalin and the system of Deng
Indistinguishable
In the pitch dark of night all buffalo are black
Or so said wild Man Hegel
"•Does productivity drive wages? Evidence from sectoral data - Bank Underground"
In order to have demand to match increased product real income increases must match increase production
so unless the rich who are getting richer have an identical propensity to consume then is would have to be true that not only does real total income have to keep up with real
production but also real median incomes must keep up with real production
Simple.
For years instead of increased pay the demand was met with borrowing, instead of increased pay,
this was bound to collapse
I like this blogger Campbell. Stephen Williamson should be excommunicated from the Economics Guild.
He should receive a letter of reproach from former CEA Chairs. (I'm thinking about the DeLong-SWL
debate.)
"Thus it's worth peering into [Williamson's] intellectual journey. First, after QE, despite
high unemployment and a weak economy, he repeatedly predicted that inflation would rise. When
it didn't happen, he changed his mind, which is what one should do. Only, he couldn't concede
that standard Keynesian liquidity trap analysis was largely correct. That would be equivalent
to surrendering his army to the evil of evils, Paul Krugman. Much easier to venture into the wilderness,
and instead conclude, not that inflation wasn't rising despite low interest rates because the
economy was still depressed, and banks were just sitting on newly printed cash, but rather that
inflation was low because interest rates were low!
Fortunately, not all of Macro went in this direction, as Larry Christiano, a mainstream economist,
discusses the Keynesian Revival* due to the Great Recession."
Lawrence J. Christiano Northwestern University Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
February 2017
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Great Recession was particularly severe and has endured far longer than most recessions.
Economists now believe it was caused by a perfect storm of declining home prices, a financial
system heavily invested in house-related assets and a shadow banking system highly vulnerable
to bank runs or rollover risk. It has lasted longer than most recessions because economically
damaged households were unwilling or unable to increase spending, thus perpetuating the recession
by a mechanism known as the paradox of thrift. Economists believe the Great Recession wasn't foreseen
because the size and fragility of the shadow banking system had gone unnoticed.
The recession has had an inordinate impact on macroeconomics as a discipline, leading economists
to reconsider two largely discarded theories: IS-LM and the paradox of thrift. It has also forced
theorists to better understand and incorporate the financial sector into their models, the most
promising of which focus on mismatch between the maturity periods of assets and liabilities held
by banks.
In a keynote interview during the Stigler Center's
conference on concentration in America, Judge Posner said:
"You are not going to have people competing with the Koch
brothers." On antitrust, Posner said: "Antitrust is dead,
isn't it?"
"The real corruption is the ownership of Congress by the
rich," said Judge Richard A. Posner of the United States
Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit in Chicago, one of
the most prominent legal scholars of the last five decades,
during a keynote interview today at the Stigler Center's
conference on concentration in America.
Posner is one of the most influential antitrust scholars
of the last 50 years, and one of America's most prominent
legal minds. During a conversation with University of Chicago
Booth School of Business professor Luigi Zingales [one of the
editors of this blog], Posner harshly criticized the Supreme
Court's 2010 Citizens United ruling, declared antitrust
"dead," and described the American judicial system as "very
crappy" and "not well-designed to get good people."
On the Supreme Court's 2010 Citizens United decision,
Posner said: "If you become a member of Congress, you'll get
a card from the head of your party that you will spend five
hours [each] afternoon talking to donors. That's not the only
time you spend with donors-they'll take you to dinner,
cocktails-but these five hours are important. The message is
clear: You are a slave to the donors. They own you. That's
[the] real corruption, the ownership of Congress by the
rich."
Later, remarking on the logic behind Citizens United,
Posner said: "The Supreme Court says there's no such thing as
spending too much money to support a political candidate,
because your money is actually speech-that's all
nonsense."...
[Much more at the link. Richard Posner is great. He is an
elite that does not seem elitist, a rare phenomenon. We need
more like this.]
He was a Republican who saw the light and speaks his mind. A
short time after the Internet and blogs came online he
started spouting off as if he didn't care what people think.
Now he had a larger forum. He was one of those old, honored
judges who has ruled on endless cases and suddenly enjoyed
being a public intellectual and calling a spade a spade.
Back in the days of monarchies, polo
was known as the sport of kings. Today, thanks to Citizens
United, politics in the US has become the sport of
billionaires.
Replete with phony facebook surveys, psychiatrists, fake
new, manipulation of opinion, ... and character rich plot:
Breitbart news
Cambridge analytica
Strategic Communication Laboratories
Citizens United
Reclaim New York
Jonathan Albright, an assistant professor of
communications at Elon University, in North Carolina,
recently published a paper, on Medium, calling Cambridge
Analytica a "propaganda machine."
David Bossie
Sam Nunberg
Michal Kosinski
Bit long. Might need a shade tree and one or two beers
"... As head of Barack Obama's National Economic Council during 2009 and 2010 at the height of the foreclosure crisis, Larry Summers broke many promises to help homeowners while simultaneously dismissing Wall Street's criminality. ..."
"... Now, after the Obama administration has left power and Summers has no ability to influence anything, he finds himself "disturbed" that settlements for mortgage misconduct are full of lies. ..."
"... Of course, the Wall Street Democrats, AKA Democratic partisan hacks that infest this blog, spent years defending Obama for his lax treatment of criminal bankers. (And these same folks were also among the most avid advocates of 'trickle down monetary policy,' which involved the Fed's showering cheap money on its owners, the Wall Street banking cartel and their wealthy clientele, while raising the margin over prime rates to their credit card victims/customers.) ..."
Larry Summers is going rogue? (But only long after the horse has left the barn!)
"As head of Barack Obama's National Economic Council during 2009 and 2010 at the height of
the foreclosure crisis, Larry Summers broke many promises to help homeowners while simultaneously
dismissing Wall Street's criminality.
Now, after the Obama administration has left power and Summers
has no ability to influence anything, he finds himself "disturbed" that settlements for mortgage
misconduct are full of lies.
Those of us who screamed exactly this for years, when Summers might
have been able to do something about it, are less than amused."
Of course, the Wall Street Democrats, AKA Democratic partisan hacks that infest this blog,
spent years defending Obama for his lax treatment of criminal bankers. (And these same folks were
also among the most avid advocates of 'trickle down monetary policy,' which involved the Fed's
showering cheap money on its owners, the Wall Street banking cartel and their wealthy clientele,
while raising the margin over prime rates to their credit card victims/customers.)
The big story everyone is chasing is whether President
Trump is a Russian stooge. Wrong. That's all a smoke screen.
Trump is actually a Chinese agent. He is clearly out to make
China great again. Just look at the facts.
Trump took office promising to fix our trade imbalance
with China, and what's the first thing he did? He threw away
a U.S.-designed free-trade deal with 11 other Pacific nations
- a pact whose members make up 40 percent of global G.D.P.
The Trans-Pacific Partnership was based largely on U.S.
economic interests, benefiting our fastest-growing
technologies and agribusinesses, and had more labor,
environmental and human rights standards than any trade
agreement ever. And it excluded China. It was our baby,
shaping the future of trade in Asia.
Imagine if Trump were negotiating with China now as not
only the U.S. president but also as head of a 12-nation
trading bloc based on our values and interests. That's called
l-e-v-e-r-a-g-e, and Trump just threw it away because he
promised to in the campaign - without, I'd bet, ever reading
TPP. What a chump! I can still hear the clinking of champagne
glasses in Beijing.
Now more Asian nations are falling in line with China's
regional trading association - the Regional Comprehensive
Economic Partnership - which has no serious environmental,
intellectual property, human trafficking or labor standards
like TPP. A Peterson Institute study said TPP would "increase
annual real incomes in the United States by $131 billion" by
2030, without changing total U.S. employment levels. Goodbye
to that.
But Trump took his Make China Great campaign to a new
level on Tuesday by rejecting the science on climate change
and tossing out all Obama-era plans to shrink our dependence
on coal-fired power. Trump also wants to weaken existing
mileage requirements for U.S.-made vehicles. Stupid.
O.K., Mr. President, let's assume for a second that
climate change is a hoax. Do you believe in math? There are
now 7.5 billion people on the planet, and there will be 8.5
billion by 2030, according to the United Nations population
bureau - and most will want to drive like us, eat protein
like us and live in houses like us. And if they do, we'll eat
up, burn up, smoke up and choke up the planet - and devour
our fisheries, coral reefs, rivers and forests - at a pace
we've never seen before. Major cities in India and China
already can't breathe; wait for when there are another
billion people.
That means that clean power, clean water, clean air, clean
transportation and energy-efficient buildings will have to be
the next great global industry, whether or not there is
climate change. The demand will be huge.
So what is China doing? Its new five-year plan is a rush
to electric cars, batteries, nuclear, wind, solar and energy
efficiency - and a cap-and-trade system for carbon. Trump's
plan? More coal and oil. Hello? How can America be great if
we don't dominate the next great global industry - clean
power?
The U.S. state leading in clean energy innovations is
California, which also has the highest vehicle emissions
standards and the strictest building efficiency codes.
Result: California alone has far more advanced energy jobs
than there are coal miners in America, and the pay is better
and the work is healthier. In January 2016, CNNMoney reported
that nationally the U.S. "solar industry work force is bigger
than that of oil and gas construction, and nearly three times
the size of the entire coal mining work force."
"More than half the electric vehicles sold in the U.S. are
sold in California," said Hal Harvey, C.E.O. of Energy
Innovation. "If there are two jurisdictions hellbent on
transformation, it is China and California. There have been
200 million E.V.s sold in China already. They're called
electric bicycles, which cost about $400 - quiet, not
contributing to congestion or pollution, and affordable."
China is loving this: It's doubling down on clean energy -
because it has to and it wants to leapfrog us on technology -
and we're doubling down on coal, squandering our lead in
technology.
It was bitterly ironic that on the same day that President
Trump took America on a great leap backward to coal, The Wall
Street Journal reported that "Tencent Holdings Ltd. bought a
5% stake in Tesla Inc., giving the backing of China's most
valuable company to the Silicon Valley electric-vehicle maker
as it prepares to launch its first car aimed at the mass
market. Having a powerful friend in China could help Tesla
as it eyes further global expansion. Big Chinese tech
companies have backed a wave of green-car start-ups in the
country recently."
If you liked buying your oil from Saudi Arabia, you'll
love buying your electric cars, solar panels, efficiency
software and batteries from China.
Finally, Trump wants to slash the State Department and
foreign aid budgets and make it harder for people to
immigrate to America, particularly Muslims. This opens the
way for China to expand its influence across the developing
world and signals the smartest math and science students in
the world to start their start-ups overseas and not in
America.
NBC News reported last week that applications from foreign
students, notably from China, India and the Middle East, "are
down this year at nearly 40 percent of schools that answered
a recent survey by the American Association of Collegiate
Registrars and Admissions Officers."
So you tell me that Trump is not a Chinese agent. The only
other explanation is that he's ignorant and unread - that
he's never studied the issues or connected the dots between
them - so Big Coal and Big Oil easily manipulated him into
being their chump, who just tweeted out their talking points
to win votes here and there - without any thought to grand
strategy. Surely that couldn't be true?
So the center-left Friedman argues in favor of the TPP which
was basically about corporate and investor rights.
But he wants Big Government to do industrial policy when
it comes to clean energy.
"The only other explanation is that [Trump]'s ignorant and
unread - that he's never studied the issues or connected the
dots between them - so Big Coal and Big Oil easily
manipulated him into being their chump, who just tweeted out
their talking points to win votes here and there - without
any thought to grand strategy. Surely that couldn't be true?"
The irony is that Friedman appears to blind to what free
trade liberalism has wrought. Increasing inequality, wage
stagnation and a populist backlash.
The failure of "investor-lead" capitalist golden
straight-jacket economics has created a backlash which now
threatens free trade, energy policy and climate change and
the immigration of smart, workaholic immigrants, things
Friedman rightly cares about.
If you want an open, international, multicultural society
which respects science you better deliver a growing economy
with shared prosperity. If you don't, the voters will turn to
demagogues out of frustration.
Instead Friedman is dishonest about economics.
Trump highjacked the Republican party (which has always
been about outsourcing and free trade). His health care
reform failed. Let's see if he gets anything done. Seems more
interested in playing golf and trolling since he's the most
unpopular President in history (I would guess.)
Did NAFTA Help Mexico? An Update After 23 Years
By Mark Weisbrot, Lara Merling, Vitor Mello, Stephan
Lefebvre, and Joseph Sammut
Executive Summary
It is now over 23 years since the North American Free
Trade Agreement went into effect, bringing Mexico into a new
commercial agreement with the United States and Canada. At
the time it was argued, and forecast, that the agreement
would boost Mexico's growth and development.
This paper compares the performance of the Mexican economy
with that of the rest of the region since NAFTA, based on the
available economic and social indicators, and with its own
past economic performance. Among the results:
● Mexico ranks 19th of 21 Latin American countries in
growth of real GDP per person from 1992 to 2015, the most
basic economic measure of living standards.
● Mexico suffered a collapse of economic growth after
1980, with Latin American per capita GDP growing by just 9
percent, and Mexico by 13 percent, from 1980 to 2000.
● Mexico's per capita GDP growth of just 1 percent
annually over the past 23 years is significantly lower than
the rate of growth of 1.4 percent achieved by the rest of
Latin America.
● If NAFTA had been successful in restoring Mexico's
pre-1980 growth rate - when developmentalist economic
policies were the norm - Mexico today would be a high income
country, with income per person significantly higher than
that of Portugal or Greece. It is unlikely that immigration
reform would have become a major political issue in the
United States, since relatively few Mexicans would seek to
cross the border.
● According to Mexican national statistics, Mexico's
poverty rate of 55.1 percent in 2014 was higher than the
poverty rate of 1994. As a result, there were about 20.5
million more Mexicans living below the poverty line as of
2014 (the latest data available) than in 1994.
● The rest of Latin America saw a drop in poverty that was
more than five times as much as that of Mexico: 21 percentage
points (from 46 to 25 percent) for the rest of Latin America,
versus 3.9 percentage points (from 45.1 to 41.2 percent) for
Mexico.
● Real (inflation-adjusted) wages for Mexico were almost
the same in 2014 as in 1994, up just 4.1 percent over 20
years, and barely above their level of 1980.
● Unemployment in Mexico is 3.8 percent today, as compared
to an average of 3.1 percent for
1990–94 and a low of 2.2 percent in 2000; these numbers
seriously understate the true lack of jobs, but they do not
show an improvement in the labor market during the NAFTA
years.
● NAFTA also had a severe impact on agricultural
employment, as US subsidized corn and other products wiped
out family farmers in Mexico. From 1991 to 2007, 4.9 million
Mexican family farmers were displaced; while seasonal labor
in agro-export industries increased by about 3 million. This
meant a net loss of 1.9 million jobs.
● The very poor performance of the Mexican economy
contributed to a surge in emigration to the United States.
From 1994 to 2000, the annual number of Mexicans emigrating
to the United States soared by 79 percent. The number of
Mexican-born residents living in the United States more than
doubled from 4.5 million in 1990 to 9.4 million in 2000, and
peaked at 12.6 million in 2009.
Costa Rica
El Salvador
Guatemala
Honduras
Nicaragua
Panama
Argentina
Bolivia
Brazil
Chile
Colombia
Ecuador
Paraguay
Peru
Uruguay
Venezuela
Mexico ranks 19th of 21 Latin American countries in growth
of real GDP per person from 1992 to 2015, the most basic
economic measure of living standards.
Mexico ranks 17th of 18 Latin American countries in growth
of total factor productivity from 1992 to 2014, with a
decline of 18.7% in productivity recorded in Mexico.
Compare Japan, South Korea and China which developed from
agricultural economies into state-of-the-art, cutting edge
advanced economies and export powerhouses.
[ Mexico
however has grown slower than NAFTA related and wealthier
United States and Canada since 1992. A persistent problem in
development has been the repeated failure of developing
countries to grow at relatively fast rates for long.
The conjecture about relative rates of growth however is
important and needs to be carefully studied. ]
Foreign ownership in Mexican Banking: A Self-Correcting
Phenomenon
By Adrian E. Tschoegl
In June 1992 the government authorized banks to issue
shares up to 30 per cent of their capital that foreigners
could own, though one owner could hold no more than 5 per
cent, or 10 per cent with Ministry of Finance approval. In
the NAFTA negotiations, Mexico was able to keep its banking
sector highly protected from foreign entry. Foreign banks
could only operate as subsidiaries, not branches of the
parent, and initially each foreign bank could account for no
more than 1.5 per cent of the market, and foreign banks as a
whole could not account for more than eight per cent of the
market. The Treaty provided for the gradual elimination of
the restrictions, but subsequent events hastened the
process.... ]
in order to have demand to match increased product
real income increases must match increase production
so
unless the rich who are getting richer have an identical
propensity to consume
then is would have to be true that not only does real
total income have to keep up with real production but also
real median incomes must keep up with real production
simple
for years instead of increased pay the demand was met with
borrowing, instead of increased pay, this was bound to
collapse
A capitalist economy appears to inevitably lead
to an accumulation of a surplus in the hands of the few.
That seems to be detrimental for the many. What should be
done?
Karl Marx said the many (the proletariat) should establish
a dictatorship and confiscate the surplus going forward.
Henry George said the unearned income of landowners, monopolists
and the like(rentiers) should be taxed such that all public needs
would be supported by that tax.
John Bates Clark said the capitalists deserved what they received
and the system should stay as it was.
John Maynard Keynes said the state should direct and control
the economy such that the surplus would accrue to the state to
such an extent that private capital would become superfluous
(euthanasia of the rentier).
Today's disciples of Marx are, of course, Marxists.
Today's disciples of Henry George are called Georgists or
"single taxers".
Today's disciples of John Bates Clark are called Neoclassicals,
"mainstream", NeoKeynesians, New Keynesians or Neoliberals.
Today's disciples of Keynes are called Post Keynesians.
"In the U.S. labor market unemployed individuals that are actively looking for work are more than
three times as likely to become employed as those individuals that are not actively looking for
work and are considered to be out of the labor force (OLF). Yet, on average, every month twice
as many people make the transition from OLF to employment than do from unemployment to employment."
H-K-L via Justin Fox
"But mostly these men have dropped out of the labor force for other, unhappier reasons, as
Nicholas Eberstadt recounted in his recent book "Men Without Work: America's Invisible Crisis."
I think it's fair to characterize this as "a mess with jobs" -- although it's a mess that's been
many decades in the making, and I doubt President Trump really knows what to do about it."
As someone OLF since Bush cut my taxes in 2001, the reason for this "mess" is the decline price
offered to labor, which is in contrast to the four decades long conservative effort to increase
the prices of capital above the cost of labor, which requires restricting labor additions to capital
to create a reduction in demand to cut the price of labor.
And as women enter the labor force, men attached to women can become OLF when the labor price
falls too low, while being primed to become employed when the price offered exceeds their price
minimum. Alternatively, men with capital that is inflating in price can become OLF by selling
capital until the price offered for their labor increases high enough.
These men actually remain connected to the job market, either by avocation, networking with
peers, getting job training, etc.
But the bottom line, if you want more workers in the labor force who are actually working full
time, your policies must be focused on increasing the offered price for labor. Keynes and FDR
in the 30s provide the foundations for such policy:
1) remove the unemployed from the market by hiring them to build public capital assets, paying
them a wage intended to be 90% of the market rate for part-time work, providing transportation
to new locates to do the work in community with peers, offering them job skills beyond work discipline.
Aka the CCC.
2) structure taxes to favor businesses that build lots of labor capital: tax economic profits
and rents heavily while exempting from taxes all labor costs paid, including labor costs building
capital.
3) invest tax revenue from today and tomorrow in new capital with high labor cost with long
horizons to recover the cost of these capital assets. Building rail lines in the 19th century
involved lots of public investment, but the taxes paid in the subsequent century provided positive
returns in excess of cost to the public, and these assets still generate returns to the public,
even when privately operated for private return.
China has focused heavily on 3, building a high labor cost transportation system. They have
also had tax policy that favored building lots of productive capital using lots of labor, shifting
to high labor cost capital: taxes on exports are very low.
It's the latter that is driving the Republican BAT, a tax that does not tax US labor at the
same rate as imported labor. Unfortunately, it's a bandaid to Republican tax policy that makes
paying labor more have a high after tax cost: if your profits are taxed at zero, paying higher
labor costs means a 100% reduction in profits in the short term, while building capital, and the
lower profits as capital increases supply beyond demand and prices are forced down, destroying
profits. An the tax policy means a dollar reduction in before tax profits means a dollar reduction
in after tax profits.
In the last chart Fox includes, I see each of the declines coming in response to tax cuts,
increases in employment coming with tax increases, recently in stealth tax hikes, like the AMT
and the tax on SS benefits. Both have a fixed baseline intentionally not indexed so that the tax
hits more people and generates more revenue. All revenue gets spent by government with all of
it going to workers directly or indirectly by way of people who must pay workers. (Sick, disabled,
young, old).
The main economic story of the last four decades is the
massive upward redistribution of income that has taken place.
The top one percent's share of national income has more than
doubled over this period from roughly ten percent in the late
1970s to over twenty percent today. And, this is primarily a
before-tax income story, the rich have used their control
over the levers of economic power to ensure that an ever
larger share of the country's wealth goes into their pockets.
(Yes, this is the topic of my book, "Rigged: How
Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were
Structured to Make the Rich Richer" * -- it's free.)
Anyhow, the rich don't want people paying attention to
these policies (hey, they could try to change them), so they
endlessly push out nonsense stories to try to divert the
public's attention from how they structured the rules to
advance their interests. And, since the rich own the
newspapers, they can make sure that we hear these stories.
This meant that yesterday the New York Times gave us the
story ** of how robots are taking all the jobs and driving
down wages. Never mind that productivity growth is at its
slowest pace in the last seven decades. Facts and data don't
matter in the alternative world where we try to divert folks'
attention from things like the Federal Reserve Board (who are
not robots, last I checked) raising interest rates to make
sure that we don't have too many jobs.
One of the other big alternative facts for the diverters
is the generational story. This is the one where we tell
folks to ignore all those incredibly rich people with vast
amounts of money, the reason most people are not seeing
rising living standards is the damn baby boomers who expect
to get Social Security and Medicare, just because they paid
for it. The Boston Globe gave us this story *** by Bruce
Cannon Gibney, conveniently titled "how the baby boomers
destroyed everything." (Full disclosure: I am one of those
baby boomers.)
There is not much confusion about the nature of the
argument, only its substance. Gibney complains about:
"the unusual prevalence of sociopathy in an unusually
large generation. How does that disorder manifest?
Improvidence is reflected in low levels of savings and high
levels of bankruptcy. Deceit shows up as a distaste for
facts, a subject on display in everything from Enron's
quarterly reports to daily press briefings. Interpersonal
failures and unbridled hostility appeared in unusually high
levels of divorce and crime from the 1970s to early 1990s."
Starting with the bankruptcy story, the piece to which
Gibney helpfully linked noted a doubling of bankruptcy rates
for those over 65 since 1991. It reported:
"Expensive health care costs from a serious illness before
a patient received Medicare and the inability to work during
and after a serious illness are the prime contributors to
financial crises among those 55 and older."
Yes, we have clear evidence of a moral failing here.
The crime rate story is interesting. We had a surge in
crime beginning in the 1960s and running through the 1980s,
with a sharp fall beginning in the 1990s. Gibney would
apparently tie this one to the youth and peak crime years of
the baby boomers. There is an alternative hypothesis for
which there is considerable evidence: exposure to lead. While
the case is far from conclusive, it is likely that lead
exposure was an important factor. **** More importantly, the
point is that crime was a story of what was done to baby
boomers, not just kids acting badly.
I really like the complaint about the low level of savings
among baby boomers. I guess Gibney is the Boston Globe's Rip
Van Winkle who missed the housing bubble collapse and
resulting recession. A main complaint among economic policy
types in the last decade has been that people were not
spending enough. The argument was that people were being too
cautious in the wake of the crash and not spending the sort
of money needed to bring the economy back to full employment.
But Gibney wants to blame baby boomers for spending too
much. Oh well, it's alternative facts day at the Boston
Globe!
The rest of the piece is in the same vein. Boomers are
blamed for "unaddressed climate change." Well, boomers also
were the force behind the modern environmental movement. Many
of us boomers might look more to folks like Exxon-Mobil and
the Koch brothers who have used their vast wealth to try to
stifle efforts to combat climate change -- but hey, why focus
on rich people acting badly when we can blame a whole
generation?
Gibney blames boomers for every bad policy of the last
four decades, including the war on crime, which took off in
the late 1970s, when many of the boomers had not even reached
voting age. We even get blamed for the repeal of
Glass-Steagall, another great generational cause.
The amount of confusion in this piece is impressive. We
get this one:
"From 1989 to 2013, wealth gaps between older and younger
households grew in the same way as those between the top 5
percent and the bottom 95 percent. Today's seniors (boomers)
are much wealthier relative to the present young than the
seniors of the 1980s were to then-young boomers. All those
tax breaks, bailouts, easy money, deregulation, and the
bubbles they spawned supported that boomer wealth
accumulation while shifting the true costs to the future, to
the young."
Wealth is a virtually meaningless measure for the young.
Gibney is crying for the Harvard Business school grad with
$150,000 in debt. Young people do have too much debt, but the
bigger issue is the horrible labor market they face (partly
the result of boomers saving too much money). Furthermore,
while the ratio of boomer wealth to wealth of the young has
risen (because of college debt), the typical boomer reaching
retirement actually has less wealth than their parents. *****
It's also important to remember in these comparisons that
boomer parents likely had a traditional pension (an income
stream that does not get included in most wealth measures).
If boomers are to have any non-Social Security income in
retirement, it will likely be in the form of a 401(k) that
does count as wealth.
And of course we get the completely meaningless national
debt horror story:
"Still, no amount of tax reallocation could keep the
government together and goodies flowing, so boomers tolerated
astounding debt expansion while chopping other parts of the
budget. Gross national debt, 35 percent of GDP when the
boomers came of age, is now 105 percent, a peacetime record
expanding 3 percent annually, forever."
Economics fans would note that interest on the debt (net
of money refunded by the Federal Reserve Board) is around 0.8
percent of GDP, near a post-war low. They would also point
out that formal borrowing is just one way in which the
government can create obligations for the future. The
government also pays for things like innovation and creative
work with patent and copyright monopolies.
These monopolies effectively allow their owners to impose
taxes on consumers. Due to these monopolies we will pay $440
billion on prescription drugs this year for drugs that would
likely sell for less than $80 billion in a free market. The
difference of $360 billion is more than twice the net
interest burden of the debt that Gibney wants us to worry
about. And this is just patent protection for prescription
drugs, the costs for the full range and patent and copyright
monopolies throughout the economy would almost certainly be
two or three times as large.
Of course Gibney could also blame the commitment of these
monopoly rents on baby boomers (after all, people elected by
baby boomers were the ones who made these monopolies stronger
and longer), but that might be a bit hard to sell. It would
look pretty obvious that the story is one of a massive upward
redistribution to the rich -- some of whom happen to be baby
boomers -- and that would undermine the whole effort at
distraction in which Gibney and the Globe is engaged.
A quick comment on the Case-Deaton study that Noah Smith
discusses in the link above. I think there is a very good
case that economic depression, a decline in labor force
participation, opioid use, and voting for populist candidates
(like Donald Trump last year) is all linked.
If I am right
that the biggest factor behind the 60 year decline in prime
age male work force participation has been the increase in
disability, coupled with better long-term medical care and
longevity, then everything else follows.
The biggest drivers in the increase in disability claims
are mental health issues and neck and back problems.
Most people over age 35 have one or more herniated discs
in their neck or back (and frequently, those bulging or
herniated discs touch on one of the nerves leading out from
the spine. With better medical imaging, this is easier to
document.
So when the local mills close, one alternative to being
penniless is to go on disability for a herniated disc or
associated problems.
And do we have pills for that? Yes we do! Opioids!
And since opioids are one step away from heroin, they are
extremely addictive, even after just a few days' use.
So now we have a heroin-like epidemic in white Appalachia
and the Rust Belt where the mills have closed, not just in
black urban areas.
Opioid use leads to deaths by overdose.
And now the opioid abuse and epidemic of deaths just
compounds the economic depression.
And those people looking for an answer turn to populists,
no matter how rancidly racist they are.
The U.S. white working class is in big trouble. The data
is piling up. Economists Anne Case and Angus Deaton have a
new paper out, exploring mortality trends in the U.S. The
results confirm the finding of their famous 2015 study --
white Americans without college degrees are dying in
increasing numbers, even as other groups within and outside
of the country live longer. And the negative trends continued
over the past year.
The problem appears to be specific to white Americans:
Mortality rates among blacks and Hispanics continue to
fall; in 1999, the mortality rate of white non-Hispanics aged
50-54 with only a high school degree was 30 percent lower
than the mortality rate of blacks in the same age group; by
2015, it was 30 percent higher. There are similar crossovers
between white and black mortality in all age groups from
25-29 to 60-64
In contrast to the US, mortality rates in Europe are
falling for those with low levels of educational attainment,
and are doing so more rapidly than mortality rates for those
with higher levels of education.
You can see this pattern clearly in this chart from their
2015 study:
[graph]
Why is this happening? Case and Deaton don't really know.
Obesity would seem like a possible culprit, but it's also up
among black Americans and British people, whose mortality
rates from heart disease have fallen. Deaths from suicide,
alcoholism and drug overdoses -- what the authors
collectively call "deaths of despair" -- have been climbing
rapidly. But they only account for a minority of the
increase. And no one knows the definitive reason for white
despair.
One tempting explanation -- especially for those on the
political right -- might be that immigration and diversity
are causing white people to lose a sense of community and
cultural homogeneity, driving them to self-destruction. But
mortality rates for working-class white people in the U.K.
and Europe, which are experiencing even bigger fights over
immigration, have fallen very rapidly in recent years. Europe
also casts doubt on the hypothesis that the decline in
marriage is to blame, since marriage also fell in European
countries and among black Americans.
Case and Deaton instead suggest economic causes -- lack of
opportunity, economic insecurity and inequality. But this is
hard to square with falling mortality for black Americans,
who also suffered mightily in the Great Recession and have
been on the losing end of increasing inequality.
So the reason for the increase non-college white mortality
remains a mystery, for now. Perhaps it will always just be a
mysterious nationwide episode of anomie, like the massive
increase in Russian death rates after the Soviet Union's
fall. But whatever the cause, I know of one policy that would
go a long way toward fighting the baleful trend -- national
health care.
A national health service -- which also goes by the names
of single-payer health care and socialized medicine -- would
drive down the price of basic health care. Because an NHS
would be such a huge customer, it would be able to use its
market power to get better deals from providers. This is
probably why the same health-care treatments and services
cost so much less in Europe than in the U.S. -- those other
countries have their governments do the bargaining. In fact,
this already works in the U.S. -- Medicare, the single-payer
system that ensures the elderly, has seen much lower cost
growth than private health insurance, even though Medicare
isn't yet allowed by law to negotiate for cheaper drugs.
Another way an American NHS would be able to help the
white working class is by having doctors monitor patients'
behavior. In the U.K., doctors ask patients about their
alcohol consumption, exercise and other habits at free
checkups. There's some evidence that this sort of checkup
doesn't increase health in Canada, but that may be because
Canadians already mostly avoid heroin, alcoholism and
suicide. A U.S. NHS would be able to check patients' mental
health (to prevent suicide), their alcohol intake, their
opiate and other drug use, and a variety of warning signs.
Finally, an NHS could prevent overuse of opioids.
Prescription of painkillers has been a major factor in the
opiate epidemic, which has hit the white working class hard.
Drug manufacturers, however, have lobbied to preserve
widespread access to opioids. These companies have also given
doctors incentives and perks -- essentially, bribes -- to
keep prescribing these dangerous drugs. An NHS would be able
to resist lobbying pressure and make sure doctors didn't have
an incentive to hand out too many opioid pills.
A NHS wouldn't require the creation of a new bureaucracy
-- it would just require expanding Medicare to cover the
whole nation. There's already a campaign to do this, led by
none other than Senator Bernie Sanders. An NHS also wouldn't
prevent rich people from buying expensive or rapid treatment
in private markets.
So while an NHS might not solve all the health problems of
the U.S. white working class, it would go a long way toward
doing so. If President Donald Trump wanted to prevent the
people who elected him from continuing to die in rising
numbers, he would join Sanders in the campaign to extend
Medicare to cover all Americans. Unfortunately, the
health-care proposal that Trump backed went in the opposite
direction, reducing health coverage rather than expanding it.
The self-styled champion of the white working class has not
yet answered their despair with action.
"Perhaps it will always just be a mysterious nationwide
episode of anomie, like the massive increase in Russian death
rates after the Soviet Union's fall."
Economics is science!
lol Russia's economic output fell by half. Poverty rates
and suicides skyrocketed.
A tao of politics Most uses of language can be understood in both referential and functional
terms. If I tell the policeman "He ran the red light", in referential terms I am claiming that, in
some world external to my language, there was a car driven by a person I refer to as "he" which crossed
an intersection while a red lightbulb was lit. But my words have functions as well, quite apart from
what they refer to. A person might be fined or go to jail as a consequence of what I say. I might
be conveniently exonerated of responsibility for an accident. Those consequences might be independent
of the referential accuracy of the remark. Or they might not be. Perhaps there will be other corroborations,
and inconvenient penalties if I am deemed to have lied. Regardless, it is simultaneously true that
words refer to things and utterances have consequences. Both as speakers and as listeners (or as
writers and as readers) we need to consider the "meaning" of a use of language on both levels if
we are to communicate effectively.
Often there are tensions between referential accuracy and functional utility. Referential accuracy
does not necessarily imply virtue. Whether we agree with the practice or not, we all understand what
is meant by a "white lie". Statements with identical referential meaning can yield profoundly different
social consequences depending on how they are said. To "speak diplomatically" does not mean to lie,
but rather to pay especial attention to the likely effects of an utterance while trying to retain
referential accuracy. To "spin" has a similar meaning but a different connotation, it suggests subordinating
referential clarity to functional aspects of speech in a crassly self-interested way. But paying
attention to the functional role of language is not in itself self-interested or crass. We all pay
attention to how we speak as well as what we say. If we did not, we would needlessly harm people.
Even if we are scrupulously truthful, we all make choices about what to say and what to omit, when
to speak and when to remain silent. When we discuss our inner lives, often the consequences of our
utterances are more clear (even to ourselves) than their referential accuracy, and perhaps we let
the desirability of the consequences define what we take to be the truth. Perhaps that is not, or
not always, without virtue.
This bifurcation of language into referential and functional strikes me as illuminating of the
stereotyped left-right axis in politics. In broad, almost cartoonish, terms, one might describe a
"left" view that humans as individuals have limited power over their own lives, so the work of politics
is to organize collectively to create circumstances and institutions that yield desirable social
outcomes. The "right" view is that, absent interference by collectivities that are inevitably blind
to fine-grained circumstances (and that usually are corrupt), individuals have a great deal of power
over their own lives, so that differences in outcome mostly amount to "just desserts". It's obvious
why there might be some conflict between people who hold these different views.
On the key, core, question of whether individuals have a great deal of power or very limited power
to control outcomes in their own lives, the stereotyped left view is, in referential terms, more
accurate. If you are born in poverty in a war-torn country and fail to achieve a comfortable American-style
upper-middle-class life style, it's hard to say that's on you, even if some very tiny sliver of your
countrymen do manage to survive to adulthood, emigrate, and prosper. In narrower contexts, the question
becomes less clear. For those lucky enough to be born in a developed country, are differences in
outcome mostly a result of individual agency? For Americans born white, raised in middle-class comfort,
and provided an education? For people born with identical genes? The case that differences in outcome
result from choices under the control of individuals, for which they might be held responsible, grows
stronger as we restrict the sample to people facing more similar circumstances. But even among the
most narrow of cohorts, shit happens. People get sick, debilitated even, through no fault of their
own. As a general proposition, individual human action is overwhelmed by circumstance and entropy.
Policies designed with grit and bootstraps for their engine and individual choice for their steering
wheel usually fail to achieve good social outcomes. This is the sense in which it's true that "
the facts have a well-known liberal bias ".
But, before the left-ish side of the world takes a self-satisfied gloat, it should face an uncomfortable
hitch. In functional terms, widespread acceptance of the false-ish right-ish claim - that
people have a great deal of power over their own lives, and so should be held responsible as individuals
for differences in outcome - may be important to the success of the forms of collective organization
that people with more accurate, left-ish views strive to implement. This isn't a hard case to make.
A good society, qua left-ish intuitions, might provide a lot of insurance to citizens against
vicissitudes of circumstance. A generous welfare state might cushion the experience of joblessness,
housing and medical care might be provided as a right, a basic cash income might be provided to all.
But a prosperous society with a generous welfare state requires a lot of people to be doing hard
work, including lots of work people might prefer not to do. If people are inclined to see their own
and others' affairs as products of circumstance, they might easily forgive themselves accepting the
benefits of a welfare state while working little to support it, and even lobbying for more. They
might find it difficult to criticize or stigmatize others who do the same. That would lead to welfare-state
collapse, the standard right-wing prediction. But if an ethos of agency and personal responsibility
prevails, if differences in outcome are attributed to individual choices even in ways that are not
descriptively accurate, if as a social matter people discriminate between justifiable and unjustifiable
uses of public benefits and stigmatize the latter, the very prevalence of a right-wing view of human
affairs might falsify the right-wing prediction and help to sustain the left-wing welfare state.
Conversely, the existence of a left-wing social democratic welfare state renders the right-wing view
less wrong, because it diminishes disparity of circumstance, increasing the degree to which differences
in outcome actually can be attributed to individuals' choices. Irreconcilable views reinforce one
another.
God is an ironist. If left-ish views are referentially accurate while right-ish views are functionally
useful, then a wise polity will require an awkward superposition of left-ish perspectives to inform
policy design and right-ish perspectives as public ethos.
Singapore is ostentatiously capitalist, is widely perceived as a kind of protolibertarian paradise,
yet it builds a rich welfare state out of
mandatory, government-controlled "savings" and extensive intervention in health care and housing
markets. The Scandinavian countries are left-wing social democracies, built on a politics of trade
union solidarity, yet the right-wing Heritage Foundation ranks them
about as "economically free"
as the United States
despite governments
that spend much larger shares of GDP . Nordic politicians
bristle at being called "socialist" , and they maintain
higher levels
of labor-force participation than the welfare-stingy US.
Like Yin and Yang, black and white, right and left might stand perpetually in opposition even
as they require one another to form a coherently incoherent whole.
This entry was posted on Wednesday, March 29th, 2017 at 8:21 pm PDT.
"... Agree: "I've seen a few articles recently claiming that low wage growth is because productivity by workers has been stalling. A convenient way to absolve the oligarchy." ..."
New Deal democrat
March 30, 2017 at 05:05
AM
I've seen a few articles recently claiming
that low wage growth is because productivity by workers has been stalling. A convenient way to absolve
the oligarchy.
Except, if the theory were true, we should see bigger wage gains in the sectors
of the economy with the most productivity growth.
"Does productivity growth help predict wage growth at an industry level?
Not really, no. The distribution of productivity growth across industries ispositively correlated
with subsequent wage growth – industries with higher productivity growth now will tend to have higher
wage growth in subsequent quarters. However, productivity growth has little additional value in predicting
wage growth over and above univariate models...."
The real conclusion is buried in the prior discussion:
"These correlations may also tell us something about how an increase in productivity in a particular
industry feeds through into real wages. Rather than bidding up relative nominal wages (and therefore,
the relative RCW in that industry), an increase in productivity leads to lower relative prices for
the output of that industry, increasing RPW for given nominal wage. This boosts the real consumption
wages of workers in all industries."
So, productivity gains lead to a deceleration in consumer inflation, *not* better nominal wage
growth.
Oops!
So I am sure mainstream economists will do what they typically do when the theory is contradicted
by the data ....
Agree: "I've seen a few articles
recently claiming that low wage growth is because productivity by workers has been stalling.
A convenient way to absolve the oligarchy."
In a New York Times op-ed, William Davie, an associate
professor at University of London, elaborates on how we ended
up here:
We are in the middle of a transition from a society of
facts to a society of data. During this interim, confusion
abounds surrounding the exact status of knowledge and numbers
in public life, exacerbating the sense that truth itself is
being abandoned.
Once numbers are viewed more as indicators of current
sentiment, rather than as statements about reality, how are
we to achieve any consensus on the nature of social, economic
and environmental problems, never mind agree on the
solutions? Conspiracy theories prosper under such conditions.
And while we will have far greater means of knowing how many
people believe those theories, we will have far fewer means
of persuading them to abandon them.
Facts hold a sacred place in Western liberal democracies.
Whenever democracy seems to be going awry, when voters are
manipulated or politicians are ducking questions, we turn to
facts for salvation.
But they seem to be losing their ability to support
consensus. PolitiFact has found that about 70 percent of
Donald Trump's "factual" statements actually fall into the
categories of "mostly false," "false" and "pants on fire"
untruth.
For the Brexit referendum, Leave argued that European
Union membership costs Britain 350 million pounds a week, but
failed to account for the money received in return.
The sense is widespread: We have entered an age of
post-truth politics....
"Trump scholars
gradually will determine how material was the sales boost in
the complicated ups-and-downs of Trump's financial position
in those days. For an explication of some of the favors owed,
which in one case went back to 1976, see the current article.
This much is indelibly clear: the president has seen Russia
as a prime source of revenue, if not investment, for twenty
years. Again, BBw:
Simultaneous with when the tower was going up, developer
Gil Dezer and his father, Michael, were building a
Trump-backed condo project in Sunny Isles Beach, Fla.
"Russians love the Trump brand," [Dezer] says, adding that
Russians and Russian Americans bought some 200 of the 2,000
units in Trump buildings he built. They flooded into Trump
projects from 2001 to 2007, helping Trump weather the real
estate collapse, he says."
My God, what an indoctrinated, completely brainwashed twat
you are. Note to Anne: this word is listed by the British
Board of Film Classification as an example of "moderate
language" for the 12 certificate...
Incapable (in this particular area) of any independent
thinking and like parrots capable only repeat Anti-Russian
propaganda from some questionable sources.
Reminds me population of a certain country in the past.
I wonder what will happen, if Russia opens archives and
show the world the level of greed and corruption of US
politicians during 1991-2000 "economic rape of Russia." In
this case Wikileaks staff can take a very long vacation.
"80 years ago Congress forgot to put criminal enforcement in the NLRA(a). Had union busting been
a felony all along we would be like Germany today."
Many of us on the left ask why we can't be more like Germany (or Denmark?) Germany is still
international and outward-looking. The center-left like Krugman, EMichael, bakho, Sanjait, Summers
etc keep saying it's robots not politics/trade policy.
Nothing we can do. The Left says look at Germany which kept output up despite trade, robots
and bad monetary policy.
Center-left Hillary says we are not Denmark/Germany.
There is something we can do. We can start to protect collective bargaining at the state by state
level.
Old saw is that federal preemption cuts states out of protecting collective bargaining rights.
But just because Congress never included felony prosecution for union busting doesn't mean Congress
did not want anyone else to -- and would not have mattered if Congress did not want it. All state
protection does is reinforce the (toothless) federal set-up.
Congress could not constitutionally pass a law that states may not protect bargaining (OF ANY
KIND!) from being muscled. No more than Congress may prevent states from making their own minimum
wages (which Republicans would have tried a long time ago if it were possible).
Jimmy Hoffa said: "A union is a business." There is no reason one business (owner) should have
carte blanche to bust the bargaining power of another business (labor) in a democracy.
Progressive state to start with: WA, OR, CA, NV, MN, IL, MA, NY, MD, etc.
And don't forget to get around to centralized bargaining (like the Teamster's National Master
Freight Agreement -- or, where else, German, Denmark, etc.). Supermarket and airline workers (especially
employees under RLA) would kill for (legally mandated?) centralized bargaining.
"... Centralized bargaining (sector wide labor agreements) practiced by the Teamster's National Master Freight Agreement -- also by French Canada, continental Europe and I think Argentina and Indonesia -- blocks the Walmart-killing-supermarket-contracts race to the bottom. Airline employees would kill for centralized too. ..."
"... Truly populist up politics in the long run reduce financialization, for-profit scams, phara gouging, etc. etc., etc. Dean of Washington press corps said when he came to Washington (1950s?) all the lobbyists were union. ..."
"... The center-left are technocrats and don't really believe in unions or economic democracy. ..."
"... They're all about the meritocracy and so instead of arguing for workers to get organized and political and instead of arguing for a hot economy so labor markets are tight, they scold workers for not "skilling up" and acquiring the skills business want for their jobs. ..."
STARTS OUT A LITTLE OFF TOPIC BUT THEN GOES PRECISELY WHERE THE AUTHOR WANTS US TO GO I THINK
Re: Keynes' flaws - Stumbling and Mumbling
[cut-and-paste]
Neither rust-belt Americans nor Chicago gang-bangers are interested in up-to-date kitchens or
two vans in the driveway. Both are most especially not interested in $10 an hour jobs.
Both would be very, very especially interested in $20 an hour jobs.
80 years ago Congress forgot to put criminal enforcement in the NLRA(a). Had union busting
been a felony all along we would be like Germany today. Maybe at some point our progressives might
note that collective bargaining is the T-Rex in the room -- or the missing T-Rex.
The money is there for $20 jobs. 49 years -- and half the per capita income ago -- the fed
min wage was $11. Since then the bottom 45% went from 20% overall income share to 10% -- while
the top 1% went from 10% to 20%.
How to get it -- how to get collective bargaining set up? States can make union busting a felony
without worrying about so-called federal preemption:
+ a state law sanctioning wholesalers, for instance, using market power to block small retail
establishments from combining their bargaining power could be the same one that makes union busting
a felony -- overlap like min wage laws -- especially since on crim penalties the fed has left
nothing to overlap since 1935
+ First Amendment right to collectively bargain cannot be forced by the fed down (the current)
impassable road. Double ditto for FedEx employees who have to hurdle the whole-nation-at-once
certification election barrier
+ for contrast, examples of state infringement on federal preemption might be a state finding
of union busting leading to a mandate for an election under the fed setup -- or any state certification
setup for labor already covered by NLRA(a) or RLA(a). (Okay for excluded farm workers.)
Collective bargaining would ameliorate much competition for jobs from immigrants because labor's
price would be set by how much the consumer can be squeezed before (s)he goes somewhere else --
not by how little the most desperate worker will hire on for. Your kid will be grabbed before
somebody still mastering English.
Centralized bargaining (sector wide labor agreements) practiced by the Teamster's National
Master Freight Agreement -- also by French Canada, continental Europe and I think Argentina and
Indonesia -- blocks the Walmart-killing-supermarket-contracts race to the bottom. Airline employees
would kill for centralized too.
Republicans would have no place to hide -- rehabs US labor market -- all (truly) free market.
Truly populist up politics in the long run reduce financialization, for-profit scams, phara
gouging, etc. etc., etc. Dean of Washington press corps said when he came to Washington (1950s?)
all the lobbyists were union.
PS. After I explained the American spinning wheels labor market to my late brother John (we
were not even talking about race), he came back with: "Martin Luther King got his people on the
up escalator just in time for it to start going down for everybody."
I agree. All of the center-left are like Keynes in a bad way. Chris Dillow nails it.
The center-left are technocrats and don't really believe in unions or economic democracy.
They're all about the meritocracy and so instead of arguing for workers to get organized
and political and instead of arguing for a hot economy so labor markets are tight, they scold
workers for not "skilling up" and acquiring the skills business want for their jobs.
They enjoy scolding the backward rural and dying manufacturing towns where the large employers
have closed.
The technocrats are running the economy the best they can, it's up to the workers to educate
themselves so they can be "competitive" on international markets.
Meanwhile for the past 40 years the technocrats have been doing a poor job.
(or maybe a good job from their sponsors' perspective as Chris Dillow points out.)
DeLong is right about mainstream economics. SWL is wrong. "Mainstream" economics is complicit
as the technocrats are complicit.
Perhaps even DeLong is too much like Keynes and too much the "neoliberal" technocrat to understand
why businessmen keep voting Republican even though the economy does better on Democrats.
"Un Village Français," which
began in 2009, was also a sensation, possibly because it was the first major French television
series seriously to address collaboration during the Nazi occupation in World War II. Vichy
is not a taboo subject by any means. There have been scores of history books, novels, movies,
documentaries and even graphic novels about the occupation. (Though it is a measure of how
quickly postwar amnesia and myth making took hold that in the 1970s, one of the first scholars
to point out that the Pétain regime willingly went along with Hitler was an American historian,
Robert O. Paxton.)
But France is not as much of a television culture as are Britain and other
European countries. The French film industry, internationally respected and state subsidized,
has thrived better than most, and, accordingly, producers and stars tended to favor movies
over television. Films, commercial and art house, were a better reflection of the national
mood and cultural mainstream; most of the top-rated series on French television are made in
the United States.
"Un Village Francais," which is about to start its fifth season, is evidence that the tide
has shifted. The drama begins in June 1940 in Villeneuve, a fictional village in the Jura Mountains,
when the Germans are at the door, and the illusion of invulnerability is crumbling. The byword
of the series is "To live is to choose," and in each episode, and each season, the war intensifies,
options narrow and collaboration thickens....
According to post Keynesian economists and some others
such as Charles Goodhart, in the academic sphere the so
called revolution failed to properly get off the ground, with
neo Keynesian economics being Keynesian in name only. Such
critics have held that Keynes's thinking was misunderstood or
misrepresented by the revolutions leading popularisers, the
founders of neo Keynesian economics such as John Hicks and
Paul Samuelson. The post Keynesians felt neo Keynesianism
excessively compromised with the classical view. For Paul
Davidson the revolution was "aborted" in its early years; for
Hyman Minsky it was "still born"; while for Joan Robinson the
revolution led to a "bastard Keynesianism".
A suggested reason for the distortion is the central role
John Hicks's IS/LM model played in helping other economists
understand Keynes's theory – for post Keynesians, and by the
1970s even Hicks himself, the model distorted Keynes's
vision.
A second reason offered is the attacks on the more
progressive expressions of Keynes's views that occurred due
to McCarthyism. For example, while initially popular, Lorie
Tarshis's 1947 text book introducing Keynes's ideas, The
elements of economics was soon heavily attacked by those
influenced by McCarthy. The book's place as a leading text
book for Keynes's ideas in America was taken by Paul
Samuelson's Principles of Economics. According to Davidson,
Samuelson failed to understand one of the key pillars of the
revolution, the refutation ergodic axiom (i.e. saying that
economic decision makers are always confronted by uncertainty
– the past isn't a reliable predictor of the future).
The Keynesian Revolution was a fundamental reworking of
economic theory concerning the factors determining employment
levels in the overall economy. The revolution was set against
the then orthodox economic framework: Neoclassical economics.
The early stage of the Keynesian Revolution took place in
the years following the publication of Keynes' General Theory
in 1936. It saw the neoclassical understanding of employment
replaced with Keynes' view that demand, and not supply, is
the driving factor determining levels of employment. This
provided Keynes and his supporters with a theoretical basis
to argue that governments should intervene to alleviate
severe unemployment. With Keynes unable to take much part in
theoretical debate after 1937, a process swiftly got under
way to reconcile his work with the old system to form
Neo-Keynesian economics, a mixture of neoclassical economics
and Keynesian economics. The process of mixing these schools
is referred to as the neoclassical synthesis, and
Neo-Keynesian economics may be summarized as "Keynesian in
macroeconomics, neoclassical in microeconomics".
KINOs haunt the halls of social progress like so many stuffed
moose heads
[ Even though I fortunately understand KINO =
Keynesian in name only, I am not just smart enough to
understand the meaning of the obviously clever passage. What
policies does a KINO support? How does a KINO impede social
progress? ]
RGC ->
DrDick
...
March
29, 2017 at 09:54 AM
You could review how economists at
MIT changed Keynes before they introduced him to the US. Keynes' colleague Joan Robinson said the
MIT guys were "bastard Keynesians".
Keynesians and New Keynesians are very different, although
some people want to confuse the two.
Many mainstream economists pretend to be Keynesian when they are really neo-classical, which
was the school that Keynes was disputing. So when they say they are Keynesian, they are purposely
confusing Keynes' message.
Yesterday (here * ) I linked to a post by Matias Vernengo
on Keynes' theoretical contribution in light of the capital
debates. I thought it might be worthwhile to elaborate on a
central aspect of Vernengo's post, particularly as it
concerns the fundamental differences between Keynes' ideas
and the interpretation of neoclassical synthesizers of his
work. Vernengo's perspective on the significance of Keynes'
theoretical insights and the deep flaws in the marginalist
interpretation is one that is probably held by most heterodox
economists working in Sraffian and Post Keynesian traditions.
I would think Modern Monetary Theory economists also tend to
share this perspective.
Samuelson created what is called "Bastard Keynesianism". He
bastardized Keynes thinking simplifying and distorting it to
the extent it became a parody on Keynes original thinking.
It is essentially based on pre-Keynesian notion that the
macroeconomy can be understood by scaling up the
microeconomic behaviors of individual agents. Nothing can be
further from Keynes thoughts.
Keynes advocated that the economy as whole does not act as
a simple aggregate of the actions of the individual agents
within the economic system. In other words quantity turns
into quality. That was his main continuation to the
understanding of the macroeconomy.
== quote ==
Samuelson's arrogance in believing that he understood the
Keynesian system better than Keynes created the biggest
barrier to understanding Keynes for 20th Century economists.
Because of his stature, he became the authorized interpreter
of Keynes, and very few went back to original writings to try
to understand them. Those who did also failed to come to
grips with complexity, and as a result, it is impossible to
count the variety of interpretations of Keynes - see for
example, Backhouse and Bateman. The Keynesian elephant has a
huge number of parts, it seems.
It is striking how the media feel such an extraordinary
need to blame robots and productivity growth for the recent
job loss in manufacturing rather than trade. We got yet
another example of this exercise in a New York Times piece *
by Claire Cain Miller, with the title "evidence that robots
are winning the race for American jobs." The piece highlights
a new paper * by Daron Acemoglu and Pascual Restrepo which
finds that robots have a large negative impact on wages and
employment.
While the paper has interesting evidence on the link
between the use of robots and employment and wages, some of
the claims in the piece do not follow. For example, the
article asserts:
"The paper also helps explain a mystery that has been
puzzling economists: why, if machines are replacing human
workers, productivity hasn't been increasing. In
manufacturing, productivity has been increasing more than
elsewhere - and now we see evidence of it in the employment
data, too."
Actually, the paper doesn't provide any help whatsoever in
solving this mystery. Productivity growth in manufacturing
has almost always been more rapid than productivity growth
elsewhere. Furthermore, it has been markedly slower even in
manufacturing in recent years than in prior decades.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, productivity
growth in manufacturing has averaged less than 1.2 percent
annually over the last decade and less than 0.5 percent over
the last five years. By comparison, productivity growth
averaged 2.9 percent a year in the half century from 1950 to
2000.
The article is also misleading in asserting:
"The paper adds to the evidence that automation, more than
other factors like trade and offshoring that President Trump
campaigned on, has been the bigger long-term threat to
blue-collar jobs (emphasis added)."
In terms of recent job loss in manufacturing, and in
particular the loss of 3.4 million manufacturing jobs between
December of 2000 and December of 2007, the rise of the trade
deficit has almost certainly been the more important factor.
We had substantial productivity growth in manufacturing
between 1970 and 2000, with very little loss of jobs. The
growth in manufacturing output offset the gains in
productivity. The new part of the story in the period from
2000 to 2007 was the explosion of the trade deficit to a peak
of nearly 6.0 percent of GDP in 2005 and 2006.
It is also worth noting that we could in fact expect
substantial job gains in manufacturing if the trade deficit
were reduced. If the trade deficit fell by 2.0 percentage
points of GDP ($380 billion a year) this would imply an
increase in manufacturing output of more than 22 percent. If
the productivity of the manufacturing workers producing this
additional output was the same as the rest of the
manufacturing workforce it would imply an additional 2.7
million jobs in manufacturing. That is more jobs than would
be eliminated by productivity at the recent 0.5 percent
growth rate over the next forty years, even assuming no
increase in demand over this period.
While the piece focuses on the displacement of less
educated workers by robots and equivalent technology, it is
likely that the areas where displacement occurs will be
determined in large part by the political power of different
groups. For example, it is likely that in the not distant
future improvements in diagnostic technology will allow a
trained professional to make more accurate diagnoses than the
best doctor. Robots are likely to be better at surgery than
the best surgeon. The extent to which these technologies will
be be allowed to displace doctors is likely to depend more on
the political power of the American Medical Association than
the technology itself.
Finally, the question of whether the spread of robots will
lead to a transfer of income from workers to the people who
"own" the robots will depend to a large extent on our patent
laws. In the last four decades we have made patents longer
and stronger. If we instead made them shorter and weaker, or
better relied on open source research, the price of robots
would plummet and workers would be better positioned to
capture than gains of productivity growth as they had in
prior decades. In this story it is not robots who are taking
workers' wages, it is politicians who make strong patent
laws.
The robots are coming, whether Trump's Treasury secretary admits it or not
By Lawrence H. Summers - Washington Post
As I learned (sometimes painfully) during my time at the Treasury Department, words spoken
by Treasury secretaries can over time have enormous consequences, and therefore should be carefully
considered. In this regard, I am very surprised by two comments made by Secretary Steven Mnuchin
in his first public interview last week.
In reference to a question about artificial intelligence displacing American workers,Mnuchin
responded that "I think that is so far in the future - in terms of artificial intelligence taking
over American jobs - I think we're, like, so far away from that [50 to 100 years], that it is
not even on my radar screen." He also remarked that he did not understand tech company valuations
in a way that implied that he regarded them as excessive. I suppose there is a certain internal
logic. If you think AI is not going to have any meaningful economic effects for a half a century,
then I guess you should think that tech companies are overvalued. But neither statement is defensible.
Mnuchin's comment about the lack of impact of technology on jobs is to economics approximately
what global climate change denial is to atmospheric science or what creationism is to biology.
Yes, you can debate whether technological change is in net good. I certainly believe it is. And
you can debate what the job creation effects will be relative to the job destruction effects.
I think this is much less clear, given the downward trends in adult employment, especially for
men over the past generation.
But I do not understand how anyone could reach the conclusion that all the action with technology
is half a century away. Artificial intelligence is behind autonomous vehicles that will affect
millions of jobs driving and dealing with cars within the next 15 years, even on conservative
projections. Artificial intelligence is transforming everything from retailing to banking to the
provision of medical care. Almost every economist who has studied the question believes that technology
has had a greater impact on the wage structure and on employment than international trade and
certainly a far greater impact than whatever increment to trade is the result of much debated
trade agreements....
Oddly, the robots are always coming in articles like Summers', but they never seem to get here.
Automation has certainly played a role, but outsourcing has been a much bigger issue.
He has gotten a lot better and was supposedly pretty good when advising Obama, but he's sort
of reverted to form with the election of Trump and the prominence of the debate on trade policy.
Technology rearranges and changes human roles, but it makes entries on both sides of the ledger.
On net as long as wages grow then so will the economy and jobs. Trade deficits only help financial
markets and the capital owning class.
Summers is a good example of those economists that never seem to pay a price for their errors.
Imo, he should never be listened to. His economics is faulty. His performance in the Clinton
administration and his part in the Russian debacle should be enough to consign him to anonymity.
People would do well to ignore him.
Yeah he's one of those expert economists and technocrats who never admit fault. You don't become
Harvard President or Secretary of the Treasury by doing that.
One time that Krugman has admitted error was about productivity gains in the 1990s. He said
he didn't see the gains from computers in the numbers and it wasn't and they weren't there at
first, but later productivity numbers increased.
It was sort of like what Summers and Munchkin are talking discussing, but there's all sorts
of debate about measuring productivity and what it means.
"... Ironic that Krugman is cited as a voice for reform - he represents the neo-Keynesian hell we've got stuck in. ..."
"... I'm an economics student at the University of Glasgow, in second year as part of a compulsory course we were taught about alternative economic theories in comparison to Neoclassical models. ..."
"... The course has only been running for a few years but in response students have set up a very similar society to promote alternative thinking on economics. Even just half a semester on Post-Keynesian Economic theory has really opened our eyes to the alternatives within economics. ..."
"... I studied neoclassical 'economics' (it really isn't economics, just garbage) for five years. Began to take my graduate degree in the autumn of 2008 when everything was falling apart and I had no idea why. No clue whatsoever. After my masters degree in neoclassical 'economics' I still had no clue what had happened. ..."
"... Orthodox economics: Ignore money. Hence, ignore debt. Let the overall leverage of the economy increase until Ponzi finance fails and financial crisis begins. The debt deflation that follows means money gets even more concentrated towards the financial/political elite than before the crisis. Neo-feudalism makes way - finally war. ..."
"... Orthodox economists don't understand capitalism. They can't. The long time failed axioms underlying everything else in their theories don't allow them to do that. ..."
I'm an economics student at the University of Glasgow, in second year as part of a compulsory
course we were taught about alternative economic theories in comparison to Neoclassical models.
The course has only been running for a few years but in response students have set up a
very similar society to promote alternative thinking on economics. Even just half a semester on
Post-Keynesian Economic theory has really opened our eyes to the alternatives within economics.
I studied neoclassical 'economics' (it really isn't economics, just garbage) for five years.
Began to take my graduate degree in the autumn of 2008 when everything was falling apart and I
had no idea why. No clue whatsoever. After my masters degree in neoclassical 'economics' I still
had no clue what had happened.
Then I stumbled across Post-Keynesian economics and it took me about six months to dismiss
the neoclassical garbage. If I hadn't studied that garbage for five years it would have taken
me a few days.
Orthodox economics: Ignore money. Hence, ignore debt. Let the overall leverage of the economy
increase until Ponzi finance fails and financial crisis begins. The debt deflation that follows
means money gets even more concentrated towards the financial/political elite than before the
crisis. Neo-feudalism makes way - finally war.
Then the cycle starts again.
Orthodox economists don't understand capitalism. They can't. The long time failed axioms
underlying everything else in their theories don't allow them to do that.
"... This has echoes of a protest by students in 2011 at Harvard when a group of students walked out of the lectures by Dr Gregory Manilow. What has happened to them? ..."
"... Good for them. The economics profession has been dominated by neoliberal theoreticians for far too long. It needs bringing back to the real world. ..."
"... i went to the LSE to study maths and statistics with a sprinkling of economics (my first taste of it at the time). after a few months i was of the opinion it is based on terrible assumptions. e.g. the needs of the average consumer, which are then blown up into fantastical macroeconomical proportions which only led to flawed arguments. The subsequent financial crisis only backed this up. ..."
What a ghastly indictment of Manchester, and other economics departments - obviously being
very economic with their subject. Sounds a bit like the Natural Sciences departments being run
by creationists.
This should be the first class for the whole students in economics.
What are the limits in ecology ecosystem? And what are the needs/capacities for human flourishing?
Adventures in New Economics 2: Donut Economics, Kate Raworth
This is an open/complex map with a compass in values that I've built trying to go through both
main concepts. It's valid for personal development / companies / communities / nations / whole
planet.
This has echoes of a protest by students in 2011 at Harvard when a group of students walked
out of the lectures by Dr Gregory Manilow. What has happened to them?
I personally have observed in other disciplines that teaching tends to be a generation behind
current thinking, Particularly when it has more to do with ideology than science.
Some ten years ago, a movement called the Post-Autistic Ecomoncs Movement had a considerable
influence in Europe but has no doubt disappeared in the face of the greed which is central supporting
feature of today's neoliberalism.
i went to the LSE to study maths and statistics with a sprinkling of economics (my first
taste of it at the time). after a few months i was of the opinion it is based on terrible assumptions.
e.g. the needs of the average consumer, which are then blown up into fantastical macroeconomical
proportions which only led to flawed arguments. The subsequent financial crisis only backed this
up.
I commend this thinking by the students but if I was one of their parents forking out 27k i
would probably tell them to pass the exams they need to and get out and start earning.
LSE is a godawful uni also, unless you have given spawn to gordon gekko dont bother with it.
Alternative theories and models??? Well they are currently practiced by North Korea and these
students will be more than welcomed by the Kim family to ply their trade there.
Actually, "alternative theories" were practiced by South Korea, which has been quite a success
story. It's not either the status quo or state communism, you know.
For an understanding of how we came to have thrust upon us the "Dismal Science" of neo-classical
economics, which took shape in the 1880's - 1890's, I recommend reading "The Corruption of Economics"
by Mason Gaffney.
Essentially, economic thinking was hijacked by the robber barons who through building and funding
universities were able to subvert the teaching of economics to suit their own agenda. Classical
economics with a sound basis of three factors of production was replaced by voodhoo economics
which reduced the three factors of production to only two. Whereas once "land" was a factor of
production in its own right alongside "capital" and "labour", it was magicked away to be incorporated
as "capital" for the purpose of the land owning robber barons.
As anyone with a few braincells would know, "land" is a distinct factor of production in its
own right, and not only that, it is the primary factor since neither "capital" or "labour" would
exist without it. But "land" can exist without both the other two factors which makes it unique
and makes it primary and yet voodhoo economics has managed to hide this fact so well through the
employment of clever mathematics to create an illusion of being a solid discipline.
Neoclassical economics is the idiom of most economic discourse today. It is the paradigm
that bends the twigs of young minds. Then it confines the florescence of older ones, like chicken-wire
shaping a topiary. It took form about a hundred years ago, when Henry George and his reform
proposals were a clear and present political danger and challenge to the landed and intellectual
establishments of the world. Few people realize to what a degree the founders of Neoclassical
economics changed the discipline for the express purpose of deflecting George, discomfiting
his followers, and frustrating future students seeking to follow his arguments. The stratagem
was semantic: to destroy the very words in which he expressed himself.
To most modern readers, probably George seems too minor a figure to have warranted such an
extreme reaction. This impression is a measure of the neo-classicals' success: it is what they
sought to make of him. It took a generation, but by 1930 they had succeeded in reducing him
in the public mind. In the process of succeeding, however, they emasculated the discipline,
impoverished economic thought, muddled the minds of countless students, rationalized free-riding
by landowners, took dignity from labor, rationalized chronic unemployment, hobbled us with
today's counterproductive tax tangle, marginalized the obvious alternative system of public
finance, shattered our sense of community, subverted a rising economic democracy for the benefit
of rent-takers, and led us into becoming an increasingly nasty and dangerously divided plutocracy.
Not one economics graduate have I met that has heard of Henry George but yet they have all
heard of Karl Marx. The robber barons and their useful idiots have certainly achieved what they
set out to do.
As clarification the two paragraphs in italics are excerpts from the "Corruption of Economics"
by Mason Gaffney. The link to Henry George's "Progress and Poverty" is,
http://www.henrygeorge.org/pcontents.htm
"... Then Economic History was virtually withdrawn from university Economics and other courses so that only the"lies" would be taught backed up by unquestioned (i.e. purely deductive) Mathematics. It is an academic crime ..."
If a viable economic solution emerged from the universities - one which remedied the classical
models and trumped the broken neo-liberal systems, how would we recognise it?
To provide some context - and I am in no way qualified to discuss this topic really but, the
first machines to produce logic emerging from Bletchley park were not fully recognised for their
potential - the computer revolution took place elsewhere. The UK is absolute rubbish at recognising
innovation!
Good luck to the students. I hope many more get involved in this debate.
I taught Economics for forty years and over 30 of those to Singaporean scholars destined to
Oxford, Cambridge and Ivy League universities; in all those years I was aware of the lies I had
to teach in order to pass university entrance exams.
I attempted to follow the thesis that every economic theory however old or new was attempting
to answer a unique contemporary economic problem and therefore only Economic History was of relevance
in understanding a theory be Adam Smith or Keynes or even (unacademically) Thatcherism.
My students found all such information useless to passing Economics exams but interesting for
"life".
Then Economic History was virtually withdrawn from university Economics and other courses
so that only the"lies" would be taught backed up by unquestioned (i.e. purely deductive) Mathematics.
It is an academic crime.
"... Neoliberal economics not only led to the crash of 2007/8 it is continuing to wreak havoc. A
good current example is pension schemes - something we will depend on one day. They are valued using
the purest form of free market thinking: the efficient markets hypothesis - the idea that asset markets
always perfectly embody all relevant information. It is akin to belief in magic. ..."
"... It is amazing to read how narrow economics education is in modern Britain. It is not only intellectually
unenlightened and literally dangerous, given the power many economics graduates can wield, amplified
by the extraordinary sums and resources they manage, it also does a great disservice to people who are
entitled to a proper education which, clearly, they are not receiving in this monotheistic model. ..."
"... It reminds me precisely of the so-called "religious education" I received in Ireland which
was nothing of the sort. All I got was instruction in Catholic doctrine and ethics; there was no instruction
in the beliefs of any other Christian sects, let alone what goes on in the other major world religions
such as Hinduism, Judaism, or Islam. What I know about them I taught myself in later life. ..."
"... It seems that the same shameful parochial narrowness, intellectual provincialism, and "one
true religion" ethic prevails in British economic so-called "education". ..."
"... On another matter, the revelation that economists "ignore empirical evidence that contradicts
mainstream theories" destroys any notion that economics is a science, a silly claim I have always opposed.
All that it reveals is that economists have no idea what science is. ..."
Neoliberal economics not only led to the crash of 2007/8 it is continuing to wreak havoc.
A good current example is pension schemes - something we will depend on one day. They are valued
using the purest form of free market thinking: the efficient markets hypothesis - the idea that
asset markets always perfectly embody all relevant information. It is akin to belief in magic.
Yet many professionals who run pension schemes and the government regulator all support it's
use because it suits them - it deflects responsibility from them while they continue to be paid.
It's effects on society are disastrous as it leads us to believe are insolvent. The government
and actuarial profession accepted all this and enshrined it in law.
A topical example is the universities pension scheme the USS which BBC Newsnight and Radio
4 have just told us has a 'black hole' of a deficit.
Many of us thought that the EMH would ditched after its spectacular failure but no. Zombie
theories continue on their path of destruction.
It is amazing to read how narrow economics education is in modern Britain. It is not only
intellectually unenlightened and literally dangerous, given the power many economics graduates
can wield, amplified by the extraordinary sums and resources they manage, it also does a great
disservice to people who are entitled to a proper education which, clearly, they are not receiving
in this monotheistic model.
It reminds me precisely of the so-called "religious education" I received in Ireland which
was nothing of the sort. All I got was instruction in Catholic doctrine and ethics; there was
no instruction in the beliefs of any other Christian sects, let alone what goes on in the other
major world religions such as Hinduism, Judaism, or Islam. What I know about them I taught myself
in later life.
It seems that the same shameful parochial narrowness, intellectual provincialism, and "one
true religion" ethic prevails in British economic so-called "education". Intellectuals ought
to be utterly ashamed to propagate such blinkered views. Anyone who has never heard of Keynes
is culturally illiterate; that an economics student, in particular, has never heard of Keynes
is a disgrace.
On another matter, the revelation that economists "ignore empirical evidence that contradicts
mainstream theories" destroys any notion that economics is a science, a silly claim I have always
opposed. All that it reveals is that economists have no idea what science is.
Delong is a typical neoliberal stooge, not that different from Mankiw, or Summers
Note that the terms "neoliberalism", "neo-classical economics" and "financial oligarchy" were
never used...
Notable quotes:
"... "DeLong's takeaway is that economists do need to recognize that they operate in a political environment (the sewers of Romulus) in which their work will be seized upon by interested groups, with real practical outcomes. " ..."
"... UE's conclusion is that mainstream economics needs to be taken down several notches, which would open more space for alternative approaches to economics and, indeed, alternative approaches to policy that place more weight on human outcomes, broadly understood, than the formalistic criteria of efficiency, etc. ..."
"... Simon-Wren Lewis (SWL) and Chris Dillow have both recently argued that criticising economics for the 2008 financial crisis distracts from the real source of the blame, which is banks, and therefore undermines the progressive cause. While I don't disagree that the banks deserve blame, I want to push back a bit on their argument that economics as a discipline has little to do with regressive ideas. ..."
"... Consider the case of monopoly. The economics textbooks may be against monopoly, but this is largely on the grounds that it reduces consumer welfare by increasing prices. Building on this logic, the Chicago School of anti-trust regulation has shifted the focus of anti-trust law to lowering prices for consumers. As this recent article on Amazon details, this has hidden other forms of monopoly abuse such as predatory pricing, market dominance and reduced bargaining power for workers, consumers and smaller companies. ..."
"... Or consider Reinhart and Rogoff's famous '90% debt threshold', where their statistics purportedly showed that after a country reaches 90% of sovereign debt, its growth would stall. This was used by many politicians, including George Osborne, to justify austerity - until it was revealed to be based on 'statistical errors'. Sure, R & R received a fair amount of flak for this, but they have been incredibly stubborn about the result. Where was the formal, institutional denunciation of such a glaring error from the economics profession, and of the politicians who used it to justify their regressive policies? Why are R & R still allowed to comment on the matter with even an ounce of credibility? The case for austerity undoubtedly didn't hinge on this research alone, but imagine if a politician cited faulty medical research to approve their policies - would institutions like the BMA not feel a responsibility to condemn it? (Answer: yes, even when the politician was in another country). ..."
"... There are many more examples like this, such as Andrei Shleifer, who despite being prosecuted for fraud in post-Soviet Russia was awarded the John Bates Clark medal, probably the second most prestigious prize in the discipline, was subsequently allowed to publish papers in respected journals about how well privatisation went in Russia, and was eventually bailed out of the case by his incredibly wealthy university to the tune of $26 million. This is not to mention the disastrous Russian privatisation as a whole and the role of certain economists/economic ideas in it. ..."
"... Even worse were the Chicago boys, who advised Augusto Pinochet's horrific economic policies (and no, they were not just humble advisors, they were knee deep in the absolute worst excesses of the regime.) Without any substantive ethical code and without procedures for weeding out corrupt, dishonest or discredited work, the profession creates an environment where people can act like this and get away with it, all under the banner of the intellectual credibility 'economics' seems to confer on people. ..."
"... Mainstream economists have used mathematics to hide ideology. ..."
"... They have cherry-picked mathematical constructions with highly restrictive, idealized properties and then wedged-in economic parameters to fit their purposes. That is the case with the neoclassical production function and with the Arrow-Debreu general equilibrium model. The objective was to "prove" that economies free from government control were "natural" and best. They have been sophists from their first emergence. ..."
"... Science is not capable of devising a theory that adequately explains all the human elements and serendipitous effects of an economy - and may never be capable. However, humans are capable of organizing a society according to their needs and wants. They do it on a corporate scale all the time. It isn't perfect but it works pretty well. ..."
"... Mainstream economists have fought against a managed economy because it would reduce the influence of themselves and their plutocrat sponsors. ..."
"DeLong's takeaway is that economists do need to recognize that they operate in a political
environment (the sewers of Romulus) in which their work will be seized upon by interested groups,
with real practical outcomes. "
Economics: Part of the Rot, Part of the Treatment, or Some of Each?
Is mainstream economics, with its false certitudes and ideological biases, one of the reasons
for the dismal state of policy debate in countries like the UK and the US, or are its rigorous
methods an important antidote to the ruling political foggery? That's being debated right now,
live online.
Our starting point is a post on Unlearning Economics, dated March 5, which argues that the
flaws of mainstream economics contribute to lousy policy on several fronts: downplaying the role
of monopoly, cheerleading for the shareholder value imperative in the corporate world, knee-jerk
support for trade agreements under the banner of comparative advantage, and regressive macroeconomic
policy, among others. A particularly pointed paragraph brought up the Reinhart-Rogoff 90% affair
and accused the economics profession of dereliction of duty by not taking action to rebuke the
wrongdoers:
Where was the formal, institutional denunciation of such a glaring error from the economics
profession, and of the politicians who used it to justify their regressive policies?
UE's conclusion is that mainstream economics needs to be taken down several notches, which
would open more space for alternative approaches to economics and, indeed, alternative approaches
to policy that place more weight on human outcomes, broadly understood, than the formalistic criteria
of efficiency, etc.
Simon Wren-Lewis responded by arguing that UE has it exactly backwards. Restricting himself
to UE's critique of macroeconomics, SWL says, yes, reactionary politicians have invoked "economics"
to support austerity, but "real" economists for the most part have not gone along. True, there
were a few, like Reinhart and Rogoff and those in the employ of the British financial sector ("City
economists") who took a public stand against sensible Keynesian policies in the wake of the financial
crisis, but they were a minority, and, in any case, what would you want to do about them? Economists,
like professionals in any field, will disagree sometimes, and having a centralized agency to enforce
a false consensus would ultimately work against progressives and dissenters, not for them. Let's
put the blame where it really belongs, says SWL-on the politicians and pundits who have brushed
aside decades of theoretical and empirical work to promulgate a reactionary, fact-free discourse
on economic policy.
Yes-but, adds Brad DeLong. He largely agrees with SWL, but delves more deeply into the Reinhart-Rogoff
affair. He shows that, even without the famed Excel glitch, a cursory look would reveal that R-R
were trumpeting nonexistent results:
The 90% debt cliff was an artifact of the way R-R set up their bins. Replace binning with
a continuous relationship between growth and debt and the cliff disappears.
The correlation between growth and debt supported no particular causal interpretation,
and R-R provided no other evidence to support their particular causal argument.
The correlation itself was so weak that the practical implication of R-R's claim was nil.
Fiscal stimulus that could make or break a recovery was being rejected on the basis of future
economic growth effects that would be too small to measure.
So the R-R claim that fiscal consolidation was necessary and urgent was unfounded from the
get-go, and these two were both respected mainstream economists, so what can we infer? DeLong's
takeaway is that economists do need to recognize that they operate in a political environment
(the sewers of Romulus) in which their work will be seized upon by interested groups, with real
practical outcomes. In this situation, the profession as a whole has a responsibility to assess
high profile but dubious work. Although he isn't explicit, my reading is that DeLong wants some
sort of professional quality control, but not institutionalized in the way UE seems to call for.
"reactionary politicians have invoked "economics" to support austerity, but "real" economists
for the most part have not gone along. True, there were a few, like Reinhart and Rogoff and those
in the employ of the British financial sector ("City economists") who took a public stand against
sensible Keynesian policies in the wake of the financial crisis, but they were a minority, and,
in any case, what would you want to do about them? Economists, like professionals in any field,
will disagree sometimes, and having a centralized agency to enforce a false consensus would ultimately
work against progressives and dissenters, not for them. Let's put the blame where it really belongs,
says SWL-on the politicians and pundits who have brushed aside decades of theoretical and empirical
work to promulgate a reactionary, fact-free discourse on economic policy."
Simon-Wren Lewis (SWL) and Chris Dillow have both recently argued that criticising economics
for the 2008 financial crisis distracts from the real source of the blame, which is banks, and
therefore undermines the progressive cause. While I don't disagree that the banks deserve blame,
I want to push back a bit on their argument that economics as a discipline has little to do with
regressive ideas.
But firstly, it is my view that criticising economics needn't have an ideological motivation.
Many critics, myself included, simply believe that neoclassical economics has severe shortcomings
and that in order to understand the economic system properly we need better ideas. In many cases
criticisms of neoclassical economics are so abstract that it's not even clear to me what the political
implications of either side would be (e.g. the fact that Arrow-Debreu equilibrium might be unstable
has no bearing on my view of whether capitalism itself is). I respect both SWL and Dillow immensely,
but taken alone I consider this line of argument a rather feeble attempt to shut down an important
scientific and philosophical debate.
Despite this, the point has some force to it: why devote so much intellectual effort to criticising
economics when we could be devoting it to getting the big banks and other corporate wrongdoers?
And here I think SWL and Dillow both paper over the extent to which economics has served those
in power, as I will try to illustrate with a number of examples. To be clear, I'm not 'blaming'
economists for all of these occurrences, but I do think the discipline seems to eschew responsibility
for them, and that progressive economists have a blind spot when it comes to the practical consequences
of their discipline.
Economics in Practice
I've always acknowledged that economists themselves are probably more progressive than they're
usually given credit for. Nevertheless, the absence of things like power, exploitation, poverty,
inequality, conflict, and disaster in most mainstream models - centred as they are around a norm
of well-functioning markets, and focused on banal criteria like prices, output and efficiency - tends
to anodise the subject matter. In practice, this vision of the economy detracts attention from
important social issues and can even serve to conceal outright abuses. The result is that in practice,
the influence of economics has often been more regressive than progressive.
Consider the case of monopoly. The economics textbooks may be against monopoly, but this
is largely on the grounds that it reduces consumer welfare by increasing prices. Building on this
logic, the Chicago School of anti-trust regulation has shifted the focus of anti-trust law to
lowering prices for consumers. As this recent article on Amazon details, this has hidden other
forms of monopoly abuse such as predatory pricing, market dominance and reduced bargaining power
for workers, consumers and smaller companies.
Similarly, textbook ideas about profit maximisation and rational agents responding to incentives
featured prominently in the promotion of shareholder value by Milton Friedman and other economists,
which has been dominant over the past few decades and has been instrumental in increasing inequality
and corporate short-termism. The potential macroeconomic impacts of corporate concentration have
also been ignored by discipline until very recently - a consequence, perhaps, of the narrowing
of particular subfields and the neglection of more critical systemic analysis (something similar
could perhaps be said for the 2016 Prize in contract theory, though I am no expert in this area).
One type of institution which is dominated by economic ideas is central banks, yet many of
their policies have had regressive elements. For instance, SWL praises economists at the Bank
of England for implementing Quantitative Easing, but forgets that the Bank itself admitted that
this has disproportionately benefited the wealthy. This problem goes even deeper: as J W Mason
has argued, inflation targeting - a key central bank policy across the world - in practice results
in workers' wages being kept down and their jobs being made more insecure in the name of combating
inflation. In both cases what is painted as a relatively benign process - reducing interest rates
and managing inflation, respectively - actually has quite serious social consequences, which generally
aren't discussed in class or by policymakers.
In the realm of international trade, economists have been all too inclined to support trade
deals - often quite vociferously - on the basis of simple ideas like comparative advantage, while
ignoring (a) the actual details of the trade deals, which as Dean Baker frequently points out,
tend to favour the rich and corporations and (b) their own more complex economic models, which
as Dani Rodrik frequently points out, do imply that trade will harm some people while benefitting
others. Uneven and unfair international trade has been a key element of the harm to workers over
the past few decades, and was undoubtedly a factor in the election of Trump.
Global trade institutions like the IMF and World Bank have been dominated by economics since
their inception, and using economics they inflicted massive pain through their free market 'structural
adjustment' policies, which can only be described as regressive but which were fundamentally based
on context-free neoclassical ideas about markets. True, these institutions may have softened somewhat
in recent years, but that doesn't undo the harm they have caused. In fact, even their more recent
'bottom up' policies such as microcredit and Randomised Control Trials - both inspired by economic
ideas - often seem to have benefited global and local elites at the expensive of the poorest.
As Jamie Galbraith once noted in the context of the financial crisis, the discipline just has
a blind spot for how ideas interact with power to produce unfair outcomes, sometimes taking the
form of outright abuse and fraud. Which leads me nicely to my next argument.
Abusing Economics
Economists may complain that economic ideas have been misused by vested interests, and that
this isn't their responsibility. But a huge problem with the discipline of economics is that it
has virtually no institutional shields against mistakes and wrongdoing. Merton and Scholes won
the biggest prize in the profession for their model of financial markets - which had become commonly
adopted in options trading - in 1997. A year later those same economists required a hefty bailout
when the use of their model was implicated in the collapse of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital
Management, where they were both partners. Was the prize revoked? No. Were they discredited? No.
Actually, even the model is still widely used, despite massively underestimating fat tails and
therefore being implicated in a number of other financial crises, including 2008.
Or consider Reinhart and Rogoff's famous '90% debt threshold', where their statistics purportedly
showed that after a country reaches 90% of sovereign debt, its growth would stall. This was used
by many politicians, including George Osborne, to justify austerity - until it was revealed to
be based on 'statistical errors'. Sure, R & R received a fair amount of flak for this, but they
have been incredibly stubborn about the result. Where was the formal, institutional denunciation
of such a glaring error from the economics profession, and of the politicians who used it to justify
their regressive policies? Why are R & R still allowed to comment on the matter with even an ounce
of credibility? The case for austerity undoubtedly didn't hinge on this research alone, but imagine
if a politician cited faulty medical research to approve their policies - would institutions like
the BMA not feel a responsibility to condemn it? (Answer: yes, even when the politician was in
another country).
There are many more examples like this, such as Andrei Shleifer, who despite being prosecuted
for fraud in post-Soviet Russia was awarded the John Bates Clark medal, probably the second most
prestigious prize in the discipline, was subsequently allowed to publish papers in respected journals
about how well privatisation went in Russia, and was eventually bailed out of the case by his
incredibly wealthy university to the tune of $26 million. This is not to mention the disastrous
Russian privatisation as a whole and the role of certain economists/economic ideas in it.
Even worse were the Chicago boys, who advised Augusto Pinochet's horrific economic policies
(and no, they were not just humble advisors, they were knee deep in the absolute worst excesses
of the regime.) Without any substantive ethical code and without procedures for weeding out corrupt,
dishonest or discredited work, the profession creates an environment where people can act like
this and get away with it, all under the banner of the intellectual credibility 'economics' seems
to confer on people.
And this leads me to my last point, which is the rhetorical power that invoking 'economics'
has in contemporary politics. 'You don't understand economics' is - rightly or wrongly - a common
refrain of those attacking progressive policies such as Ed Miliband's proposed energy price freeze,
the minimum wage, or fiscal expansion. As with the above abuses of economics, those such as SWL
complain (perhaps correctly) that these are inaccurate representations of the field.
But these same economists then invoke 'economics' in a similar way to justify their own policies.
In my opinion, this only reinforces the dominance of economics and narrows the debate, a process
which is inherently regressive. The case against austerity does not depend on whether it is 'good
economics', but on its human impact. Nor does the case for combating climate change depend on
the present discounted value of future costs to GDP. Reclaiming political debate from the grip
of economics will make the human side of politics more central, and so can only serve a progressive
purpose.
Think about how Republicans use "Science" and scientists fight back against their misuse. In recent
decades Republicans have left the field and now "scientist" has become a bad word for them.
Mainstream economists have used mathematics to hide ideology.
They have cherry-picked mathematical constructions with highly restrictive, idealized properties
and then wedged-in economic parameters to fit their purposes. That is the case with the neoclassical
production function and with the Arrow-Debreu general equilibrium model. The objective was to
"prove" that economies free from government control were "natural" and best. They have been sophists
from their first emergence.
In the 1950s, Arrow and others proved a theorem that, many economists believe, put a rigorous
mathematical foundation beneath Adam Smith's idea of the invisible hand. The theorem shows --
in a highly abstract model -- that producers and consumers can match their desires perfectly,
given a particular set of prices.
In this rarified atmosphere of "general equilibrium," economic activity might take place efficiently
without any central coordination, simply as a result of people pursuing their self-interest.
It's an insight that economists have used to argue for de-unionization, globalization and financial
deregulation, all in the name of removing various frictions or distortions that prevent markets
from achieving the elusive equilibrium.
Yet the theorem trails a dense cloud of caveats, which Arrow himself recognized could be more
important than the proof itself. For one, it worked only in a perfect world, far removed from
the one humans actually inhabit.
Equilibrium is merely one of many conceivable states of that world; there's no particular reason
to believe that the economy would naturally tend toward it. Beautiful as the math may be, actual
experience suggests that its magical efficiency is purely theoretical, and a poor guide to reality.
Remarkably, academic macroeconomists have largely ignored these limitations, and continue to
teach the general equilibrium model -- and more modern variants with same fatal weaknesses --
as a decent approximation of reality.
Economists routinely use the framework to form their views on everything from taxation to global
trade -- portraying it as a value-free, scientific approach, when in fact it carries a hidden
ideology that casts completely free markets as the ideal.
Thus, when markets break down, the solution inevitably entails removing barriers to their proper
functioning: privatize healthcare, education or social security, keep working to free up trade,
or make labor markets more "flexible."
Those prescriptions have all too often failed, as the 2008 financial crisis eloquently demonstrated.
The result is widespread distrust of economic experts and rejection of globalization.
In his recent book "Economism: Bad Economics and the Rise of Inequality," James Kwak credits
conservative think tanks funded by corporations and the wealthy for spreading the oversimplified
belief in markets as wise machines for producing optimal social outcomes. He certainly has a point,
yet such propaganda stemmed from an intellectual model that had been lurking at the center of
economics all along -- and remains there now, still widely revered.
This perversion isn't Arrow's fault. He merely helped to prove a mathematical theorem, and
was no blind advocate for markets. Indeed, he actually thought the theorem illustrated the limitations
of capitalism, and he was prescient in understanding how economic inequality might come to impair
the workings of democratic government.
Perhaps it would be best to use his own words: "In a system where virtually all resources are
available for a price, economic power can be translated into political power by channels too obvious
for mention. In a capitalist society, economic power is very unequally distributed, and hence
democratic government is inevitably something of a sham."
Comment on Simon Wren-Lewis on 'On criticizing the existence of mainstream economics'
There is no such thing as economics, there are FOUR economixes and they are constantly played
against each other. First, there is theoretical and political economics. The crucial distinction
within theoretical economics is true/false, the crucial distinction within political economics
good/bad. Economics exhausts itself since 200+ years in crossover discussion, that is, by NOT
keeping science and politics properly apart. As a result, it got neither science nor politics
right.
Heterodox economists say that orthodox economics is false and in this very general sense they
are right. Heterodox economists have debunked much of Orthodoxy but this has not enabled them
to work out a superior alternative. The proper task of Heterodoxy is not the repetitive critique
of Orthodoxy but to fully replace it, that is, to perform a paradigm shift: "The problem is not
just to say that something might be wrong, but to replace it by something ― and that is not so
easy." (Feynman)
Because Heterodoxy has never developed a valid alternative it advocates pluralism, more precisely,
the pluralism of false theories. The argument boils down to: if Orthodoxy is allowed to sell their
rubbish in the curriculum, Heterodoxy must also be allowed to sell their rubbish. Economics is
not so much a heroic struggle about scientific truth but about a better place at the academic
trough.
The fact of the matter is that neither Orthodoxy nor Heterodoxy has the true theory and that,
by consequence, the political arguments of BOTH sides have NO sound scientific foundation.
Traditional Heterodoxy knows quite well that it has nothing to offer in the way of progressive
science and therefore argues for dumping scientific standards altogether and to focus on politics
pure and simple: "The case against austerity does not depend on whether it is 'good economics',
but on its human impact. Nor does the case for combating climate change depend on the present
discounted value of future costs to GDP. Reclaiming political debate from the grip of economics
will make the human side of politics more central, and so can only serve a progressive purpose."
This is a good idea, economists should no longer pretend to do science but openly push their
respective political agendas, after all, this is what they have actually done the past 200+ years.
Neither Orthodoxy nor traditional Heterodoxy satisfies the scientific criteria of material and
formal consistency. So, both, orthodox and heterodox economists have to get out of science because
of incurable incompetence.
It was John Stuart Mill who told economists that they must decide themselves between science
and politics: "A scientific observer or reasoner, merely as such, is not an adviser for practice.
His part is only to show that certain consequences follow from certain causes, and that to obtain
certain ends, certain means are the most effectual. Whether the ends themselves are such as ought
to be pursued, and if so, in what cases and to how great a length, it is no part of his business
as a cultivator of science to decide, and science alone will never qualify him for the decision."
Both, orthodox and heterodox economists violate the principle of the separation of science
and politics on a daily basis. Economics is what Feynman famously called cargo cult science and
neither right wing nor left wing economic policy guidance has a sound scientific foundation since
Adam Smith/Karl Marx. It is high time that economics frees itself from the corrupting grip of
politics.
Science is not capable of devising a theory that adequately explains all the human elements
and serendipitous effects of an economy - and may never be capable. However, humans are capable
of organizing a society according to their needs and wants. They do it on a corporate scale all
the time. It isn't perfect but it works pretty well.
Mainstream economists have fought against a managed economy because it would reduce the
influence of themselves and their plutocrat sponsors.
"The story of inequality they tell is also one which is essentially technology based (IT and
outsourcing), as they find that inequality is almost entirely driven by changes in between firm
inequality. They deserve credit for presenting an interesting set of facts.
However, while intriguing, I'm not yet totally convinced this is the key to understanding inequality.
Macromon [sic] also had an excellent discussion of this research awhile back...
...
I took issue with this comment "Since 1980, income inequality has risen sharply in most developed
economies". As my blog readers know, income inequality has not risen dramatically in Germany,
France, Japan, or Sweden according to Alvaredo et al.. Thus, this comment threw me: "This means
that the rising gap in pay between firms accounts for the large majority of the increase in income
inequality in the United States. It also accounts for at least a substantial part in other countries,
as research conducted in the UK, Germany, and Sweden demonstrates." Right, but the increases in
inequality in Germany and Sweden have been quite minor relative to the US, and are also associated
with changes in top marginal tax rates. So, between firm inequality isn't actually explaining
much is what I'm hearing.
"the profession as a whole has a responsibility to assess high profile but dubious work."
As in that awful paper by Gerald Friedman. Peter Dorman ripped it. I ripped. And yes the Romers
ripped it.
That is what economists are suppose to do. But you have whined about this for the last 14 months.
Reply Monday, March 27, 2017 at 07:47 AM
Yes it was a priority to demonize Friedman b/c he was coming from the left and was supposedly
supporting Bernie Sanders. It was a way for the center-left to discredit Bernie Sanders and call
him "unPresidential" and "unserious" as Hillary did.
Meawhile PGL continuously name-drops Mankiw as if he has a man crush on him.
"... You don't need to look very far to see the neoliberal ideal; it is all around us: everything a commodity, including human beings; massive differentials in life chances; sweat shops for producers juxtaposed with unimaginable wealth for the owners of capital; everybody on their own, the rolling back of collective provision and no such thing as society. ..."
"... Instead, the neoliberals talk of freedom and choice, but in reality it is freedom for the few to exploit the many and the choice to take whatever crumbs are offered to you or starve. ..."
"... Agree, but it's not that they don't talk about it. The use mathematics as a way to underscore what is essentially an ideological position. It gives them an aura of objectivity, impartiality and scientific truth which, given their prepositions about utility maximization and unbounded growth, they frankly don't have. ..."
Keynes viewed economics as a branch of philosophy. At its heart are two questions - What is
the nature of man? and What sort of society should we create? The focus on mathematical models,
based upon free-market theories, has long been a victory for ivory towers over reality. Sure,
they have an important role to play, but when they are at the centre of what is taught at universities
something has gone wrong.
The neoliberals also have strong views on the kind of society they would like to create, but
they don't talk about it often, because very few people would vote for it.
You don't need to look very far to see the neoliberal ideal; it is all around us: everything
a commodity, including human beings; massive differentials in life chances; sweat shops for producers
juxtaposed with unimaginable wealth for the owners of capital; everybody on their own, the rolling
back of collective provision and no such thing as society.
Instead, the neoliberals talk of freedom and choice, but in reality it is freedom for the
few to exploit the many and the choice to take whatever crumbs are offered to you or starve.
Agree, but it's not that they don't talk about it. The use mathematics as a way to underscore
what is essentially an ideological position. It gives them an aura of objectivity, impartiality
and scientific truth which, given their prepositions about utility maximization and unbounded
growth, they frankly don't have.
"... Few mainstream economists predicted the global financial crash of 2008 and academics have been accused of acting as cheerleaders for the often labyrinthine financial models behind the crisis. Now a growing band of university students are plotting a quiet revolution against orthodox free-market teaching, arguing that alternative ways of thinking have been pushed to the margins. ..."
"... Our starting point is a post on Unlearning Economics, dated March 5, which argues that the flaws of mainstream economics contribute to lousy policy on several fronts: downplaying the role of monopoly, cheerleading for the shareholder value imperative in the corporate world, knee-jerk support for trade agreements under the banner of comparative advantage, and regressive macroeconomic policy, among others. A particularly pointed paragraph brought up the Reinhart-Rogoff 90% affair and accused the economics profession of dereliction of duty by not taking action to rebuke the wrongdoers: ..."
"... Simon Wren-Lewis responded by arguing that UE has it exactly backwards. Restricting himself to UE's critique of macroeconomics, SWL says, yes, reactionary politicians have invoked "economics" to support austerity, but "real" economists for the most part have not gone along. True, there were a few, like Reinhart and Rogoff and those in the employ of the British financial sector ("City economists") who took a public stand against sensible Keynesian policies in the wake of the financial crisis, but they were a minority, and, in any case, what would you want to do about them? Economists, like professionals in any field, will disagree sometimes, and having a centralized agency to enforce a false consensus would ultimately work against progressives and dissenters, not for them. Let's put the blame where it really belongs, says SWL-on the politicians and pundits who have brushed aside decades of theoretical and empirical work to promulgate a reactionary, fact-free discourse on economic policy. ..."
So true; "SWL has never addressed what is happening in the real world."
And that's the reason UK economics students revolted: "Few mainstream economists predicted
the global financial crash of 2008 and academics have been accused of acting as cheerleaders for
the often labyrinthine financial models behind the crisis. Now a growing band of university students
are plotting a quiet revolution against orthodox free-market teaching, arguing that alternative
ways of thinking have been pushed to the margins.
Economics undergraduates at the University of Manchester have formed the Post-Crash Economics
Society, which they hope will be copied by universities across the country. The organisers criticise
university courses for doing little to explain why economists failed to warn about the global
financial crisis and for having too heavy a focus on training students for City jobs."
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/oct/24/students-post-crash-economics
pgl is a classic example. He regularly preaches what theory says but is clueless to explain
what's really happening.
Economics: Part of the Rot, Part of the Treatment, or Some of Each?
Is mainstream economics, with its false certitudes and ideological biases, one of the reasons
for the dismal state of policy debate in countries like the UK and the US, or are its rigorous
methods an important antidote to the ruling political foggery? That's being debated right now,
live online.
Our starting point is a post on Unlearning Economics, dated March 5, which argues that
the flaws of mainstream economics contribute to lousy policy on several fronts: downplaying the
role of monopoly, cheerleading for the shareholder value imperative in the corporate world, knee-jerk
support for trade agreements under the banner of comparative advantage, and regressive macroeconomic
policy, among others. A particularly pointed paragraph brought up the Reinhart-Rogoff 90% affair
and accused the economics profession of dereliction of duty by not taking action to rebuke the
wrongdoers:
Where was the formal, institutional denunciation of such a glaring error from the economics
profession, and of the politicians who used it to justify their regressive policies?
UE's conclusion is that mainstream economics needs to be taken down several notches, which
would open more space for alternative approaches to economics and, indeed, alternative approaches
to policy that place more weight on human outcomes, broadly understood, than the formalistic criteria
of efficiency, etc.
Simon Wren-Lewis responded by arguing that UE has it exactly backwards. Restricting himself
to UE's critique of macroeconomics, SWL says, yes, reactionary politicians have invoked "economics"
to support austerity, but "real" economists for the most part have not gone along. True, there
were a few, like Reinhart and Rogoff and those in the employ of the British financial sector ("City
economists") who took a public stand against sensible Keynesian policies in the wake of the financial
crisis, but they were a minority, and, in any case, what would you want to do about them? Economists,
like professionals in any field, will disagree sometimes, and having a centralized agency to enforce
a false consensus would ultimately work against progressives and dissenters, not for them. Let's
put the blame where it really belongs, says SWL-on the politicians and pundits who have brushed
aside decades of theoretical and empirical work to promulgate a reactionary, fact-free discourse
on economic policy.
Yes-but, adds Brad DeLong. He largely agrees with SWL, but delves more deeply into the Reinhart-Rogoff
affair. He shows that, even without the famed Excel glitch, a cursory look would reveal that R-R
were trumpeting nonexistent results:
The 90% debt cliff was an artifact of the way R-R set up their bins. Replace binning with
a continuous relationship between growth and debt and the cliff disappears.
The correlation between growth and debt supported no particular causal interpretation,
and R-R provided no other evidence to support their particular causal argument.
The correlation itself was so weak that the practical implication of R-R's claim was nil.
Fiscal stimulus that could make or break a recovery was being rejected on the basis of future
economic growth effects that would be too small to measure.
So the R-R claim that fiscal consolidation was necessary and urgent was unfounded from the
get-go, and these two were both respected mainstream economists, so what can we infer? DeLong's
takeaway is that economists do need to recognize that they operate in a political environment
(the sewers of Romulus) in which their work will be seized upon by interested groups, with real
practical outcomes. In this situation, the profession as a whole has a responsibility to assess
high profile but dubious work. Although he isn't explicit, my reading is that DeLong wants some
sort of professional quality control, but not institutionalized in the way UE seems to call for.
"... It was an eye opener that Universities are teaching only the neo-liberal model as the core syllabus. This is not education but indoctrination. Fair play to the group then who were passionate about the need for change and realise that it is up to them to effect that change. Good luck to them, I hope that they are successful in re-claiming education as a means of furthering understanding through questioning prevailing orthodoxy. ..."
"... Good luck. You may need it. You will be surprised at how much opposition you encounter and how remorseless and relentless it is. Look up the book "Political economy now!", about the experience at the University of Sydney. ..."
"... Economics is so discredited a subject that even students who have barley started studying realise that - with a few exceptions like Stiglitz or Schiller - it is total fabricated bullshit paid for by people with enough money to benefit from the lies it spreads. ..."
"... One of the biggest lies ever told the free market, as its never ever been a reality. ..."
"... Economists, like scientists and the rest of us, are always employed by someone and therein lies the problem: the conflict between what we believe to be the truth and what we are paid to do (or teach) to keep our job. Many economists (like investors & politicians) knew the crash would burst at some point but only those who enjoyed a seat outside the system would benefit from its prediction. ..."
Few mainstream economists predicted the global financial crash of 2008 and academics have been accused
of acting as cheerleaders for the often labyrinthine financial models behind the crisis. Now a growing
band of university students are plotting a quiet revolution against orthodox free-market teaching,
arguing that alternative ways of thinking have been pushed to the margins.
Economics undergraduates at the University of Manchester have formed the
Post-Crash Economics Society ,
which they hope will be copied by universities across the country. The organisers criticise university
courses for doing little to explain why economists failed to warn about the global financial crisis
and for having too heavy a focus on training students for City jobs.
A growing number of top economists, such as Ha-Joon Chang, who teaches economics at Cambridge
University, are backing the students.
Next month the society plans to publish a manifesto proposing sweeping reforms to the University
of Manchester's curriculum, with the hope that other institutions will follow suit.
Joe Earle, a spokesman for the Post-Crash
Economics Society and
a final-year undergraduate, said academic departments were "ignoring the crisis" and that, by neglecting
global developments and critics of the free market such as Keynes and Marx, the study of economics
was "in danger of losing its broader relevance".
Chang, who is a reader in the political economy of development at Cambridge, said he agreed with
the society's premise. The teaching of economics was increasingly confined to arcane mathematical
models, he said. "Students are not even prepared for the commercial world. Few [students] know what
is going on in China and how it influences the global economic situation. Even worse, I've met American
students who have never heard of Keynes."
In June a network of young economics students, thinkers and writers set up
Rethinking Economics , a campaign group
to challenge what they say is the predominant narrative in the subject.
Earle said students across Britain were being taught neoclassical economics "as if it was the
only theory".
He said: "It is given such a dominant position in our modules that many students aren't even aware
that there are other distinct theories out there that question the assumptions, methodologies and
conclusions of the economics we are taught."
Multiple-choice and maths questions dominate the first two years of economics degrees, which Earle
said meant most students stayed away from modules that required reading and essay-writing, such as
history of economic thought. "They think they just don't have the skills required for those sorts
of modules and they don't want to jeopardise their degree," he said. "As a consequence, economics
students never develop the faculties necessary to critically question, evaluate and compare economic
theories, and enter the working world with a false belief about what economics is and a knowledge
base limited to neoclassical theory."
In the decade before the 2008 crash, many economists dismissed warnings that property and stock
markets were overvalued. They argued that markets were correctly pricing shares, property and exotic
derivatives in line with economic models of behaviour. It was only when the US sub-prime mortgage
market unravelled that banks realised a collective failure to spot the bubble had wrecked their finances.
In his 2010 documentary Inside Job, Charles Ferguson highlighted how US academics had produced
hundreds of reports in support of the types of high-risk trading and debt-fuelled consumption that
triggered the crash.
Some leading economists have criticised university economics teaching, among them Paul Krugman,
a Nobel prize winner and professor at Princeton university who has attacked the complacency of economics
education in the US.
In an article for the New York Times in 2009,
Krugman wrote
: "As I see it, the economics profession went astray because economists, as a group, mistook
beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics, for truth."
Adam Posen, head of the Washington-based thinktank the Peterson Institute, said universities ignore
empirical evidence that contradicts mainstream theories in favour of "overly technical nonsense".
City economists attacked Joseph Stiglitz, the former World Bank chief economist, and Olivier Blanchard,
the current International Monetary Fund chief economist, when they criticised western governments
for cutting investment in the wake of the crash.
A Manchester University spokeman said that, as at other university courses around the world, economics
teaching at Manchester "focuses on mainstream approaches, reflecting the current state of the discipline".
He added: "It is also important for students' career prospects that they have an effective grounding
in the core elements of the subject.
"Many students at Manchester study economics in an interdisciplinary context alongside other social
sciences, especially philosophy, politics and sociology. Such students gain knowledge of different
kinds of approaches to examining social phenomena many modules taught by the department centre
on the use of quantitative techniques. These could just as easily be deployed in mainstream or non-mainstream
contexts." Since you're here
we've got a small favour to ask. More people are reading the Guardian than ever, but far fewer
are paying for it. Advertising revenues across the media are falling fast. And unlike many news organisations,
we haven't put up a paywall – we want to keep our journalism as open as we can . So you can see why
we need to ask for your help. The Guardian's independent, investigative journalism takes a lot of
time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe our perspective matters – because
it might well be your perspective, too.
If everyone who reads our reporting, who likes it, helps to support it, our future would be much
more secure.
I particularly like: Anyone who believes exponential growth can go on forever in a finite
world is either a madman or an economist. and
Economists are like computers. They need to have facts punched into them.
But my favourite is Mathematics brought rigor to Economics. Unfortunately, it also brought
mortis.
Good luck to this group. They are on the right lines.
Agreed, but they are fighting an uphill battle. Just look at how few (accademic) heterodox economists
actually work in economics departments. I think almost every heterdox economist I know works in
an non-economics school/faculty (i.e. schools/facultues of the environment, sustainability, sociology,
land use etc).
I spoke with some of the Post Crash group at a Peoples Assembly meeting recently. It was an
eye opener that Universities are teaching only the neo-liberal model as the core syllabus. This
is not education but indoctrination. Fair play to the group then who were passionate about the
need for change and realise that it is up to them to effect that change. Good luck to them, I
hope that they are successful in re-claiming education as a means of furthering understanding
through questioning prevailing orthodoxy.
Well said that man. Very well said. Unquestioning indoctrination has led us (all countries in
the world be they active participants or 'victims) to this sorry pass.
Basic economics should include the very basic idea that money is no more and no less than a
tool. If you strip money / the tool away from folk then they will either try and take your tool
from you or, if life becomes savage enough, they will fall by the wayside.
Does this generation and successive ones really want to walk over the bodies of others?
Without a profound readjustment and realignment of economic thinking, that is precisely what
is in store. Indeed, it is what has been set in motion already. Time for an urgent re-think before
more bodies litter the highways.
I heard recently about one man who had had such a re-think.
He was an American financial executive who was asked why he was taking early retirement and
going off to live in a little valley in the hills.
He replied: "Well, it is a lovely property with great scenery, fertile land and its own microhydroelectricity-----but
the really big attraction is that it puts 300 miles of armed hillbillies between me and the nearest
city"!!.
I do hope the chap in question doesn't end up regretting that he has deliberately placed himself
into a situation where there are 300 miles of armed hillbillies between himself and the nearest
city.
Good luck. You may need it. You will be surprised at how much opposition you encounter and
how remorseless and relentless it is. Look up the book "Political economy now!", about the experience
at the University of Sydney.
Exactly - the clue is in this statement from the University authorities...
It is also important for students' career prospects that they have an effective grounding
in the core elements of the subject.
Or in other words...
Students should be familar with the free market fair tales thrown up by rich, greedy bankers
and the right wing in order to earn money pandering the "correct" line
Economics is so discredited a subject that even students who have barley started studying
realise that - with a few exceptions like Stiglitz or Schiller - it is total fabricated bullshit
paid for by people with enough money to benefit from the lies it spreads.
One of the biggest lies ever told the free market, as its never ever been a reality.
Restrictions or prejudices ensure this, so such a philosophy deserves tearing up just like
their supporters who believe community and care are bad ideals. They call it socialism but it
is far from being a dirty word as it is about looking after all people on a more equal level,
so as to ensure the most vulnerable people in society are not left in a helpless and hopeless
position.
I heard recently about one man who had had such a re-think.
He was an American financial executive who was asked why he was taking early retirement and going
off to live in a little valley in the hills.
He replied: "Well, it is a lovely property with great scenery, fertile land and its own microhydroelectricity-----but
the really big attraction is that it puts 300 miles of armed hillbillies between me and the nearest
city"!!.
Thatcherist 'Reaganomics' was their response to the hissy fit Maggie threw at the 'grubby little
terrorist' Nelson Mandela when he started to put the kibosh on the elites cash cow of South African
apartheid, 4 decades of 'starving the beast' and media complicity in pushing the benefits of supply
side while pruning demand to the core by cutting back public investment which is the only source
of high velocity currency in a debt based economy where cash is simply printed to commission public
gods, services and infrastructure for a civilised society and withdrawn through tax to mitigate
inflation.
Only as we approach their ideology of fiscal apartheid do the courtiers perceive that without
demand a bleak future awaits everyone but the very few already excessively wealthy.
Economists, like scientists and the rest of us, are always employed by someone and therein
lies the problem: the conflict between what we believe to be the truth and what we are paid to
do (or teach) to keep our job. Many economists (like investors & politicians) knew the crash would
burst at some point but only those who enjoyed a seat outside the system would benefit from its
prediction.
"... Lately certain unrepentant members of that disgraced profession, some of whom claim to be the consciences of the liberal establishment, have been expressing concern about the disrepute of the 'experts' and the need to allow the technocrats to take control of policy and the economy. ..."
"... Brad DeLong, by the way, banned me from his site comments noting, 'Alan Greenspan never made a decision with which I disagreed.' Since then even Alan Greenspan has admitted he does not agree with some of his decisions, in a sniveling and sneaky kind of a non-apologetic way. ..."
"... But the specific factual point from Brad's piece that got me going was this: ..."
"... "Merton and Scholes's financial math was correct, and the crash of their hedge fund did not require any public-money bailout" ..."
"... I think it is less than trivial to know where and how the B-S risk model fails as math, as illustrated so well by Benoit Mandelbrot in his book The Misbehaviour of Markets. The math fails in its selection choice of variables and assumptions. Naseem Taleb has made a cottage industry and a personal fortune understanding this error. ..."
Ok I have to admit that the title alone got me into a cranky mood. Lately certain unrepentant
members of that disgraced profession, some of whom claim to be the consciences of the liberal establishment,
have been expressing concern about the disrepute of the 'experts' and the need to allow the technocrats
to take control of policy and the economy.
Granted, they may look like the lesser of two evils in some cases, as in the current nascent administration,
and in their own minds. But their policy consensus and economic recommendations of the past
thirty years or so, starting with the Fed chairmanship of Alan Greenspan at least, only look good
in their own selective memories. Brad DeLong, by the way, banned me from his site comments noting,
'Alan Greenspan never made a decision with which I disagreed.' Since then even Alan Greenspan
has admitted he does not agree with some of his decisions, in a sniveling and sneaky kind of a non-apologetic
way.
For everyone else this cycle of growing inequality, policy skews to the wealthy few, and asset
bubbles and bust that serve as wealth transfer mechanisms has been particularly trying.
But the specific factual point from Brad's piece that got me going was this:
"Merton and Scholes's financial math was correct, and the crash of their hedge fund did not
require any public-money bailout"
Yeah, right. Let's put aside the nicety of a Fed brokered bailout of LTCM by Wall Street money
as technically not requiring public bailout money, in order to save the financial system from an
epic overleveraged mispricing of risk based on that correct math.
I think it is less than trivial
to know where and how the B-S risk model fails as math, as illustrated so well by Benoit Mandelbrot
in his book The Misbehaviour of Markets. The math fails in its selection choice of variables
and assumptions. Naseem Taleb has made a cottage industry and a personal fortune understanding this
error.
And what makes it most egregious is that the error hs been known among those with mathematical
minds for some time. I myself read Mandelbrot's book in 2001 and said, 'holy shit.'
Let's be clear. This was not some dumb error on the part of these fellows, or some sneaky
trick. They could not resolve their math without making a certain assumption, and they did
it openly and consciously. And as the write of the essay below notes, there has not been anything
better produced yet to his knowledge.
It is not the theory itself that is 'bad.' It is the use and misuse to which it is put by
opportunists and financial predators in misrepresenting it.
But the people who use the assumptions on risk contained in the model don't care. Like
the efficient market hypothesis, it is an intellectual fig leaf that covers an epic era of
looting and plundering bases on what is essentially a con game. If you assume that risk is a rare
event, you can persuade the regulators and the very important people to let you run on leverage at
extreme levels, especially if you can use other people's money.
Like some of the other accepted truths from the turn of the century greed is good crowd, it is
a meme with which to silence the protests and permit the widespread mispricing of risk in order to
reap enormous short term profits for a very few wealthy insiders. This had been going on for
so long that it is almost accepted as a normal way of doing business.
Here is what an essay in
Criticality had to say about the Merton-Scholes math. I suppose that the sophist would
say that the math was indeed right. It was just the assumptions they used to construct the
model was wrong. So 3+5 does equal 8. Its just that in the real world case there
were three more factors that were tossed aside and ignored because they messed up the path to the
more easily determined and reassuring result.
"This implies that rather than extreme market moves being so unlikely that they make little contribution
to the overall evolution, they instead come to have a very significant contribution. In a normally
distributed market, crashes and booms are vanishingly rare, in a pareto-levy one crashes occur
and are a significant component of the final outcome.
It has taken years for this to be taken
seriously, and in the mean time financial theory has gone on using the assumption of normally
distributed returns to derive such results as the Black-Scholes option pricing equation, ultimately
winning an Nobel Prize in Economics for the discoverers Scholes and Merton (Black having already
died), not to mention Modern Portfolio theory (also winning Nobels). That modern finance ignored
Mandelbrot's discovery and went onto honor those working under assumptions shown to be false has
clearly annoyed Mandelbrot immensely and as mentioned previously he spends much of the book telling
us of his prior discoveries and how he was ignored.
It is like allowing tobacco companies to widely distribute their products while a bevy of hired gun
experts and media pundits and PR organizations promote the theory that tobacco is not a highly addictive
substance that causes a wide range of debilitating diseases, including cancer. They know
damn well that it is and it does, but they do not give a damn as long as the money is rolling in.
And pity the fool who tries to stand up and tell the truth.
And so to has it been with the Banks.
Indeed, the PR campaign and political donations they handled through their intermediaries during
the 1990s to deregulate and overturn Glass-Steagal has to be one of the great propaganda accomplishments
of the twentieth century. And the follow on campaign for the US to invade Iraq in retribution
for 9/11 is not far behind it for the twenty first.
The greater point is not that the B-S model is based on faulty assumptions that greatly diminish
the potential risks. Rather it is how such 'laws' of economics are so often of a dodgy, optionated
and theoretical nature such that taking them as a given in forming public policy is a huge mistake
in judgement.
Why? Because they may embody assumptions about what is true, and what is a priority, and
what our principles and objectives may be, and propagate those assumptions (biases) into a general
policy of our society that ends up causing great harm to many innocent participants. Indeed,
as Obama said, there is a great need to discussion and understanding. It is just that it cannot
be monopolized by a particular group of insiders who adhere to certain assumptions and professional
courtesies of their own, dare I say it, class.
So there are my two corrections to the mainstream media and their writing of the public record-
to suit themselves and their wealthy patrons. It seems like modern America spends an
enormous amount of its intellectual capital and time on finding ways to scam the public. If
we could somehow reorder the paybacks on financial corruption to even a third of what it is today
we could probably cure cancer in five years or less. That is what it would take to 'make
America great again,' for real and not just in the funny papers.
I would like to again stress that I am not finding fault with either of the two bloggers involved,
both of whom I enjoy and admire for what they do. Mark Thoma is a class act, and even when
he disagrees is very fair and open minded about it. And he keeps this site in his blogroll
despite some special interests who have argued for its removal. That is more than I can say
for some others.
Rather, I am trying to correct a couple of things from the broader media that seem to be factually
wrong, purposely, and further, to help caution the reader that things that appear in the mainstream
media written by bona fide members of the certified and qualified professional establishment
cannot always be taken at face value.
The deterioration of the quality of the news is startling. I think it has a lot to do with
the takeover of the media by a relatively few number of large corporations (thank you Slick Willy)
Yeah, there is a lot of nutty stuff on the internet and in blogs. I spend a lot of time assessing
it and avoiding it where I can. But to say that the mainstream is somehow authoritative, objective
and pure is self-serving baloney at best, and a thin veneer for official propaganda when it serves
the purpose at worst.
"... What's more, the overall numbers hide serious declines in most areas of manufacturing. A 2013 paper by Susan Houseman, Timothy Bartik and Timothy Sturgeon found that strong growth in computer-related manufacturing obscured a decline in almost all other areas. "In most of manufacturing," they write, "real GDP growth has been weak or negative and productivity growth modest." ..."
"... And, more troubling, the U.S. is now losing computer manufacturing. Houseman et al. show that U.S. computer production began to fall during the Great Recession. In semiconductors, output has grown slightly, but has been far outpaced by most East Asian countries. Meanwhile, trade deficits in these areas have been climbing. ..."
"... He cites Sematech, a government-led consortium that tried to help the U.S. retain its lead in semiconductor manufacturing in the 1980s and 1990s, as a successful example of high-tech industrial policy. ..."
Staying Rich
Without Manufacturing
Will Be Hard
MARCH 28, 2017 8:00
AM EDT
Discussions about
manufacturing tend to
get very contentious.
Many economists and
commentators believe
that there's nothing
inherently special
about making things
and that efforts to
restore U.S.
manufacturing to its
former glory reek of
industrial policy,
protectionism,
mercantilism and
antiquated thinking.
But in their
eagerness to guard
against the return of
these ideas,
manufacturing's
detractors often
overstate their case.
Manufacturing is in
bigger trouble than
the conventional
wisdom would have you
believe.
One common
assertion is that
while manufacturing
jobs have declined,
output has actually
risen. But this piece
of conventional wisdom
is now outdated. U.S.
manufacturing output
is almost exactly the
same as it was just
before the financial
crisis of 2008:
[chart]
In the 1990s, it
really was true that
manufacturing
production was booming
even though employment
in the sector was
falling. During that
decade, output rose by
almost half. That's
almost a 4 percent
annualized growth
rate. The expansion of
the early 2000s, in
contrast, saw
manufacturing increase
by only about 15
percent peak-to-peak
over eight years --
less than a 2 percent
annual growth rate.
And in the eight years
between 2008 and 2016,
the growth rate has
averaged zero.
But even this may
overstate U.S.
manufacturing's
performance. An
alternative measure,
called industrial
production, shows an
outright decrease from
a decade ago:
[chart]
So it isn't just
manufacturing
employment and the
sector's share of
gross domestic product
that are hurting in
the U.S. It's total
output. The U.S.
doesn't really make
more stuff than it
used to.
What's more, the
overall numbers hide
serious declines in
most areas of
manufacturing. A 2013
paper by Susan
Houseman, Timothy
Bartik and Timothy
Sturgeon found that
strong growth in
computer-related
manufacturing obscured
a decline in almost
all other areas. "In
most of
manufacturing," they
write, "real GDP
growth has been weak
or negative and
productivity growth
modest."
And, more
troubling, the U.S. is
now losing computer
manufacturing.
Houseman et al. show
that U.S. computer
production began to
fall during the Great
Recession. In
semiconductors, output
has grown slightly,
but has been far
outpaced by most East
Asian countries.
Meanwhile, trade
deficits in these
areas have been
climbing.
In other words,
Asia is still
solidifying its place
as the workshop of the
world, while the U.S.
de-industrializes. The
1990s provided a brief
respite from this
trend, as new
industries arose to
replace the ones that
had been lost. But the
years since the turn
of the century have
reversed this short
renaissance, and
manufacturing is once
more migrating
overseas.
Manufacturing
skeptics often draw
parallels to what
happened to
agriculture in the
Industrial Revolution.
But the two situations
aren't analogous. In
the 20th century, U.S.
agricultural output
soared even as it shed
jobs and shrank as a
percent of GDP.
Machines replaced most
human farmers, but the
total value of U.S.
crops kept climbing.
Meanwhile, the U.S.
to this day runs a
trade surplus in
agriculture even as it
runs a huge deficit in
manufactured products.
America pays for
computers and cars and
phones with soybeans
and corn and beef.
So U.S.
manufacturing is
hurting in ways that
U.S. agriculture never
did. The common
refrain that the
modern shift to
services parallels the
earlier shift to
industry might turn
out to be true, but
the parallels are not
encouraging.
Faced with this
evidence, many
skeptics will question
why the sector is
important at all. Why
should a country
specialize in making
things, when it can
instead specialize in
designing, marketing
and financing the
making of things?
This is a
legitimate question,
but there are reasons
to think a successful
developed nation still
needs a healthy
manufacturing sector.
Harvard University's
Kennedy School of
Government economist
Ricardo Hausmann
believes that a
country's economic
development depends
crucially on where it
lies in the so-called
product space. If a
country makes complex
products that are
linked to many other
industries -- such as
computers, cars and
chemicals -- it will
be rich. But if it
makes simple products
that don't have much
of a supply chain --
soybeans or oil -- it
will stay poor. In the
past, the U.S. was
very successful at
positioning itself at
the top of the global
value chain. But with
manufacturing's
decline, the rise of
finance, real estate
and other orphaned
service industries may
not be enough to keep
the country rich in
the long run.
More top economists
are starting to come
around to the view
that manufacturing is
important.
Massachusetts
Institute of
Technology economist
David Autor, in a
recent phone
conversation, told me
he now believes that
the U.S. should focus
more on industrial
policy designed to
keep cutting-edge
manufacturing
industries in the
country. He cites Sematech, a
government-led
consortium that tried
to help the U.S.
retain its lead in
semiconductor
manufacturing in the
1980s and 1990s, as a
successful example of
high-tech industrial
policy.
The stellar
performance of
semiconductor
manufacturing in the
1990s and 2000s
relative to other
industries in the
sector, as reported by
Houseman et al., seems
like something the
U.S. should aim to
emulate with
next-generation
industries.
So U.S. leaders
should listen to
manufacturing skeptics
a little bit less, and
pay more attention to
those who say the
sector is crucial.
It's worth noting that
President Donald
Trump, who was elected
on a promise to
restore American
manufacturing, has
shown more interest in
cutting government
programs designed to
give industry a
helping hand. If
there's going to be a
U.S. industrial policy
renaissance, it might
not be his
administration that
leads it.
36%-40% going to "financial institutions"
51%-52% going to "individuals", i.e. mostly "rich individuals"
5%-9% going to "manufacturing/productive industry".
It's hardly surprising we're such an unproductive - fiancialised and individualised nation is
it? Nor is it surprising that London generally "flourishes" as one of the most financialised and
individualised cities in the world.
This isn't 'freedom'. It's reaping what we have sowed for the last thirty plus years of neoliberal
politics and economics. It's as centrally planned as anything under the Soviet Union, only with capitalist
distribution, i.e. it is pure state capitalism, or engineered capitalism, and yet they tell us society
cannot be 'engineered', or 'structured', and that this is utopian dreaming. They are the utopian
dreamers.
London is the financial arm of the Washington consensus - a part of the EU, and a part of the
UK, but barely so - or semi-detached. The City of London from which all financial capital flows is
effectively a tax haven, no different to the Channel Islands. It's all a huge political and social
mess - exactly what the economic elite want.
Brad DeJong is staunch despicable neoliberal, but something he has the courage to admit obvious
things...
Notable quotes:
"... Simon needs to face that fact squarely, rather than to dodge it. The fact is that the "mainstream
economists, and most mainstream economists" who were heard in the public sphere were not against austerity,
but rather split, with, if anything, louder and larger voices on the pro-austerity side. ..."
"... When Unlearning Economics seeks the destruction of "mainstream economics", he seeks the end
of an intellectual hegemony that gives Reinhart and Rogoff's very shaky arguments a much more powerful
institutional intellectual voice by virtue of their authors' tenured posts at Harvard than the arguments
in fact deserve. ..."
and then there is Reinhart and Rogoff, where I think Unlearning Economics is right.
So Unlearning Economics is batting 0.170 in their examples of "mainstream economics considered
harmful". But there is that one case. And I do not think that Simon Wren-Lewis handles that one
case well. And he needs to--I need to. And, since neither he nor I have, this is a big problem.
Let me put it this way: Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff are mainstream economists.
The fact is that Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff were wrong in 2009-2013. Yet they had much
more influence on economic policy in 2009-2013 than did Simon Wren-Lewis and me. They had influence.
And their influence was aggressively pro-austerity. And their influence almost entirely destructive.
Simon needs to face that fact squarely, rather than to dodge it. The fact is that the "mainstream
economists, and most mainstream economists" who were heard in the public sphere were not against
austerity, but rather split, with, if anything, louder and larger voices on the pro-austerity
side. (In my humble opinion, Simon Wren-Lewis half admits this with his denunciations of
"City economists".)
When Unlearning Economics seeks the destruction of "mainstream economics", he seeks the
end of an intellectual hegemony that gives Reinhart and Rogoff's very shaky arguments a much more
powerful institutional intellectual voice by virtue of their authors' tenured posts at Harvard
than the arguments in fact deserve.
Simon Wren-Lewis, in response, wants to claim that strengthening the "mainstream" would somehow
diminish the influence of future Reinharts and Rogoffs in analogous situations. But the arguments
for austerity that turned out to be powerful and persuasive in the public sphere came from inside
the house!
"... Legitimacy of the US "democratic" governance can survive only as long as: ..."
"... Or at least that their children could gain that better life, if they get some college degree and work hard. ..."
"... Actually "after 9/11" national security state is already a huge step forward in this direction, so we are almost arrived at the point when the USA democratic "façade" became Potemkin village for tourists. ..."
"... That's essentially the difference between "surface state" and the "deep state" that is now actively discussed in the USA due to attempt of color revolution against Trump with intelligence agencies and FBI coming out as political players. ..."
"... And as soon as any intelligence agency becomes a political player this means effective end of any, even traditional the USA form of "façade-based", two party oligarchical rule called "democracy." ..."
Legitimacy of the US "democratic" governance can survive only as long as:
People of America had an expectation that if they work hard they can gain a better
life. This is not true now for the majority (say, lower 80%) of population.
Or at least that their children could gain that better life, if they get some college
degree and work hard. This is also not true now for majority of graduates. Only those,
who graduates at the top of the class, or from Ivy League universities can expect to get decent
positions. Most graduation are happy to land at helpdesk, doing job that does not require any
college education, because it is better then being a waiter.
IMHO, if neither (1) not (2) are applicable the legitimacy of the democratic government evaporates.
And that creates favorable condition for the transition to the dictatorship in some form.
Actually "after 9/11" national security state is already a huge step forward in this direction,
so we are almost arrived at the point when the USA democratic "façade" became Potemkin village
for tourists.
That's essentially the difference between "surface state" and the "deep state" that is
now actively discussed in the USA due to attempt of color revolution against Trump with intelligence
agencies and FBI coming out as political players.
And as soon as any intelligence agency becomes a political player this means effective
end of any, even traditional the USA form of "façade-based", two party oligarchical rule called
"democracy."
That's a dictatorship: a form of government where a country is ruled by one person or by one
or several non-elected political agencies (like the Communist Party, or STASI). And were the power
is exercised through mechanisms that are completely outside the control of electorate.
If somebody here tells that Comey, or in the past Clapper and Michael Morell, were not a political
players in this presidential cycle, the danger is that half of Mexico and Canada readers of this
blog can die laughing.
In short, there is no such thing as a "natural rate of interest".
........................
What then? It is difficult to say, exactly, whether the prevalent confusions are the result
of sloppy thinking, an incoherent textbook pedagogy, or a deliberate desire to cover for the Federal
Reserve and to obstruct potential criticism of the independent central bank. As a next step, let
us ask: is there a better theory of interest rates out there, somewhere in the great work of the
economists?
In the CEA paper, as in most of this so-called literature, the 20th century British economist
John Maynard Keynes is not cited. Yet it is a fact that Keynes did write an influential book with
the word "Interest" in the title. It was called The General Theory of Employment Interest and
Money, published in 1936. In which Keynes states, of the classical theory of interest – that theory
of loanable funds overlying a natural rate – that his own analysis "will have made it plain that
this account of the matter must be erroneous" (p. 177). Perhaps it is worthwhile to seek Keynes's
counsel at this point?
Keynes's theory of interest does not rest on the capital stock. And in Keynes as in the real
world, there is no "capital market" that equates household saving with business investment.
Instead, Keynes's theory of interest is about the market for money – a market that definitely
does exist in the real world. He wrote: "The rate of interest is not the 'price' which brings
into equilibrium the demand for resources to invest with the readiness to abstain from consumption.
It is the 'price' which equilibrates the desire to hold wealth in the form of cash with the available
quantity of cash" (p. 167). In other words, interest rates are a portfolio issue. They are determined
in the money markets, by how – in what form – people with wealth choose, at any given time, to
hold that wealth. You pay interest, in order to get people to hold their wealth in less-liquid
forms, such as bonds – and this is what provides firms with a secure source of financing, which
then permits them to invest.
Keynes's theory of interest is the pure common sense of how financial markets work. So why
is it treated, by our leading liberal economists, as though it didn't exist? Why all this confusing
folderol about natural and neutral rates? The apparent answer is damning. In the theories our
economists like, a technical theory of interest creates a technical theory of income distribution,
since interest rates govern the incomes of creditors against debtors, of the rich against the
poor, of profits against wages. Thomas Piketty's recent book is a nice instance of this point,
with its argument that the great inequalities of capitalism are due to interest rates higher than
the rate of economic growth. If interest somehow reflects the physical productivity of the capital
stock, then the consequences may be unfortunate – but they are inevitable and not something of
which it is proper to complain.
"Why all this confusing folderol about natural and neutral rates? The apparent answer is damning.
In the theories our economists like, a technical theory of interest creates a technical theory
of income distribution, since interest rates govern the incomes of creditors against debtors,
of the rich against the poor, of profits against wages..........If interest somehow reflects the
physical productivity of the capital stock, then the consequences may be unfortunate – but they
are inevitable and not something of which it is proper to complain."
[Is that clear enough?......Galbraith is accusing mainstream economists of acting as apologists
for rentiers.]
Next American Economics Association meeting should be held in Youngstown so economists can admire
the fruit of their labors. See all the destroyed buildings, the raging heroin epidemic and mass
poverty your support of de-industrialization and free trade brought to America.
Every regional meeting should be held in any number of America's thousands of destroyed dilapidated
cities - E. St. Louis, Rochester, Cleveland, Greensboro NC, San Bernadino - there are so many
de-industrialized ghettoes from which to choose!
Tom aka Rusty -> Next AEA meeting should be held in Youngstown so economists can admire the fruit
of their labors... ,
March 26, 2017 at 09:41 AM
I've been recommending Detroit for years.
libezkova -> Tom aka Rusty ... March 26, 2017 at 03:34 PM
That might not help. Those guy have no morals. Simply none. Nothing is left from 10 commandment
in their brains. They have only "Greed is good" etched in it.
Just look at Mankiw. Noting can stop him from cashing in on all this neoclassical crap.
Or, for a change, Krugman's behavior during elections. What a despicable neoliberal stooge
he proved to be. His dirty attacks on Sanders should probably be re-printed as a leaflet and distributed
nationwide -- as a warning.
It is so difficult to understand that "when nothing left on the left, working class and lower
middle class turns to far right." ?
What a despicable stooge of financial oligarchy. Another Rubin's boy, much like Summers...
And now he has the audacity to criticize Trump, the person he was working to put in power for
more then a decade. I do not defend Trump, but it is important to ask a simple question: Are the
members of the criminal Clinton gang (who essentially practiced racketeering via Clinton Foundation)
and "over-connected" to intelligence services Obama paragons of virtue?
Are they conceptually any different from Trump ?
In the past they practices the same dirty neoliberal tricks as Trump tying to squeeze the majority
of population in favor of financial oligarchy (Obama "non-prosecution" after 2008 is a telling
example, and shows who he really is), but probably with more polish and better PR. That's the
only difference.
Discussions of neoliberalism, on both the left and the right, suffer from what Paul Krugman and
others have called "zombie" ideas. These are economic concepts that have been long discredited,
but continue to shamble on. On the right, a central zombie idea is that reduced state regulation
of markets leads to sustainable economic growth. If you believe this, then the rise of neoliberalism
is a no-brainer.
Neoliberalism is simply the economic philosophy that works. But why should anyone believe this?
The idea that unleashing free markets then leads to good economic times should never have survived
the Great Depression, and should surely be killed for good by the Great Recession and its aftermath.
"... The GOP and this administration are overwhelmingly self-avowed Christians yet they try to deny the poor to benefit the rich. This is not Christian but evil pure and simple. ..."
"... They are an American Taliban, just going about their subversion in a less overtly violent way. ..."
"... Much like Russian people viewed the country under Bolshevism, outside of brief WWII period. That's probably why we have Anti-Russian witch hunt now. To stem this trend. But it is the US neoliberal elite, not Russians, who drive the country to this state of affairs. By spending God knows how many trillions of dollar of wars of neoliberal empire expansion and by drastic redistribution of wealth up. And now the majority of citizens is facing substandard medical care, sliding standard of living and uncertain job prospects. ..."
"... US elections have been influenced by anyone with huge money or oil since the Cold War made an excuse for the US' trade empire enforced by half the world's war spending. ..."
"... The fake 'incidental' surveillance of other political opponents is a gross violation of human rights and the US' Bill of Rights. ..."
"... The disloyal opposition and its propagandists are running Stalin like show trails in their media... ..."
The GOP and this administration are overwhelmingly self-avowed Christians yet they
try to deny the poor to benefit the rich. This is not Christian but evil pure and simple.
I would love to see this lying, cheating, selfish, crazy devil (yeah, I know I sound
a bit OTT but the description is fact based) of a president and his enablers challenged
on their Christian values.
They are an American Taliban, just going about their subversion in a less overtly
violent way.
Are the people who consider our current rulers to be "American Taliban" inclined to become
"leakers" of government activities against the citizens, because they definitely stop to consider
the country as their own and view it as occupied by dangerous and violent religious cult?
Much like Russian people viewed the country under Bolshevism, outside of brief WWII period.
That's probably why we have Anti-Russian witch hunt now. To stem this trend. But it is the US
neoliberal elite, not Russians, who drive the country to this state of affairs. By spending God
knows how many trillions of dollar of wars of neoliberal empire expansion and by drastic redistribution
of wealth up. And now the majority of citizens is facing substandard medical care, sliding standard
of living and uncertain job prospects.
ilsm -> libezkova... March 26, 2017 at 05:42 AM
I see the angst over Sessions talking to a Russia diplomat twice as a red herring.
US elections have been influenced by anyone with huge money or oil since the Cold War made
an excuse for the US' trade empire enforced by half the world's war spending.
The fake 'incidental' surveillance of other political opponents is a gross violation of human
rights and the US' Bill of Rights.
The disloyal opposition and its propagandists are running Stalin like show trails in their
media.....
Trump victory was almost 30 years in the making, and I think all presidents starting from Carter
contributed to it.
Even if Hillary became president this time, that would be just one term postponement on
the inevitable outcome of neoliberal domination for the last 30 years.
I think anybody with dictatorial inclinations and promise to "drain the swamp" in Washington,
DC now has serious changes on victory in the US Presidential elections. So after Trump I, we
might see Trump II.
So it people find that Trump betrays his election promised they will turn to democratic
Party. They will turn father right, to some Trump II.
Due to economic instability and loss of jobs, people are ready to trade (fake) two party
"democracy" (which ensures the rule of financial oligarchy by forcing to select between two
equally unpalatable candidates) that we have for economic security, even if the latter means
the slide to the dictatorship.
That's very sad, but I think this is a valid observation. What we experience is a new variation
of the theme first played in 1930th, after the crash of 1928.
The story of working class and lower middle class turning to the far right for help after
financial oligarchy provoke a nationwide crisis and destroy their "way of life" and standards
of living is not new. In 1930th the US ruling class proved to be ready to accept the New Deal
as the alternative. In Germany it was not.
There is more than one joke. Our constitutional dollar
democracy with its gerrymandering, limitless congressional
revolving doors, SCOTUS unanswerable to the electorate, and
first past the post voting provides loads of punch lines, not
the least of which is the de facto two party system itself.
Two competitors is merely duopoly. It takes a minimum of
three viable choices to have any returns from competition
that are significant to the consumers' preferences. Two
competitors merely play off each other in predictable and
increasingly ossified patterns.
One very big quibble: >>SCOTUS unanswerable to the
electorate<<
As bad as the SCOTUS can be, it would be
unimaginably worse if it were subject to elections.
The big problem is that the Founders did not imagine life
expectancies into the 80s. Throughout the 19th Century, the
median time on the bench was about 14 years, and about 1/3 of
all Justices served less than 10 years -- they got sick or
died. Now the median time on the bench is 25 years, which is
totally unacceptable.
If SCOTUS terms were set at 18 years, with a new Justice
appointed every 2 years, independence would be preserved
without the imposition of the "dead hands." Emeritus Justices
could continue to serve on the appellate courts, and
provisions would have to be made for deaths or retirements
during the 18 year terms, but you get the idea.
I did not mean elections. One of my favorite planks of the
1912 Bull Moose Party was the right for popular petition and
referendum to overturn an unpopular SCOTUS decision. Roe V.
Wade could not be overturned by referendum (which some fear
but votes are measured by heat count rather than audible
volume). Citizen United would be overturned by referendum. I
trust democracy more than most, but still I don't get silly
about it.
I will take your word for it. We don't watch either CNN nor
Fox News at my house. Mostly we watch local (same news and
weather crew here appears on each the WWBT/WRLH local NBC/Fox
affiliates) news with some sampling of MSNBC and Sunday
morning ABC and CBS shows along with the daily half hour of
NBC network following the evening local. Cable news is sort
of an oxymoron given the prevailing editorial slants. The now
retired local TV news anchor Gene Cox laid the groundwork for
the best news team in central VA by setting a high bar at his
station. Gene laid it all out southern fried with satirical
humor and honesty unusual in TV news.
Maybe a post mortem would simply reveal that Democrats should
have had a coherent economic message and pursued a strategy
of standing up for working America for the past 8 years. For
example, having Pelosi demand votes on increasing the minimum
wage as often as Ryan demanded votes on killing Obamacare...
Any honest post mortem would have revealed that standing with
billionaires and the Wall Street banking cartel--and not
prosecuting a single Wall Street banker--is not a winning
strategy...
That Pelosi did not resign immediately following the 2016
election or, not having offered her resignation, that
Congressional Democrats did not demand it is an indication
that the party still has deep-rooted problems. (Pelosi may
not be the cause of those problems but given how badly
they've fared since 2010 she's clearly not the solution. She
has no business remaining as minority leader.) I'm fine with
Perez as DNC chair but Ellison should be minority leader.
"... These overall percentages actually underestimate the extent employers use plant-closing threats, since they include industries and sectors of the economy where threats to shut down and move facilities are much less likely and carry less weight because the industry or product is less mobile. In mobile industries such as manufacturing, transportation and warehouse/distribution, the percentage of campaigns with plant-closing threats is 62 percent, compared to only 36 percent in relatively immobile industries such as construction, health care, education, retail and other services. Where employers can credibly threaten to shut down or move their operations in response to union activity, they do so in large numbers. ..."
We 'll Close! Plant Closings, Plant-Closing Threats, Union
Organizing and the North American Free Trade Agreement By Kate Bronfenbrenner
Abstract
This article is based on "Final Report: The Effects of
Plant Closing or Threat of Plant Closing on the Right of
Workers to Organize." The report was commissioned by the
tri-national Labor Secretariat of the Commission for Labor
Cooperation (the North American Free Trade Agreement labor
commission) "on the effects of the sudden closing of the
plant on the principle of freedom of association and the
right of workers to organize in the three countries."
Plant-closing threats and actual plant closings are
extremely pervasive and effective components of U.S. employer
anti-union strategies. From 1993 to 1995, employers
threatened to close the plant in 50 percent of all union
certification elections and in 52 percent of all instances
where the union withdrew from its organizing drive
("withdrawals"). In another 18 percent of the campaigns, the
employer threatened to close the plant during the
first-contract campaign after the election was won.
Nearly 12 percent of employers followed through on threats
made during the organizing campaign and shut down all or part
of the plant before the first contract was negotiated. Almost
4 percent of employers closed down the plant before a second
contract was reached.
This 15 percent shutdown rate within two years of the
certification election victory is triple the rate found by
researchers who examined post-election plant-closing rates in
the late 1980s, before the North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA) went into effect.
These overall percentages actually underestimate the
extent employers use plant-closing threats, since they
include industries and sectors of the economy where threats
to shut down and move facilities are much less likely and
carry less weight because the industry or product is less
mobile. In mobile industries such as manufacturing,
transportation and warehouse/distribution, the percentage of
campaigns with plant-closing threats is 62 percent, compared
to only 36 percent in relatively immobile industries such as
construction, health care, education, retail and other
services. Where employers can credibly threaten to shut down
or move their operations in response to union activity, they
do so in large numbers.
"Ben Carlson: My 12 favorite (and free) websites for
investing information and tools"
By Ben Carlson...Mar 25, 2017...9:39 a.m. ET
..."I get a lot of questions from readers asking what data
sources or models I use. I've been building my own Excel
models and formulas for a while and have access to a handful
of professional subscription-based offerings. But you don't
have to spend tens of thousands of dollars on historical data
providers to access useful financial data in the internet
age. There are plenty of useful free websites that have
historical market data, back-testing tools, risk statistics
and scenario analysis capabilities.
Here are some that I have found helpful over the years:
NYU's stock, bond and cash historical returns
NYU professor Aswath Damodaran uses this site to update
the performance numbers for stocks (S&P 500 SPX, -0.08% ),
bonds (10-year Treasuries) and cash (three-month T-bills)
once a year. It shows the annual returns for these three
asset classes going back to 1928. You can download an Excel
file that contains historical interest rates, bond yields and
dividend yields. I use these numbers frequently.
Portfolio Visualizer
This site has one of the best free asset allocation
back-testing programs I've come across. There are probably
20-30 different asset classes and sub-asset classes you can
back-test to the 1970s with historical returns, drawdowns,
real (after-inflation) returns, and growth of your initial
investment. This site enables you to perform Monte Carlo
simulations on withdrawal strategies, correlation matrixes
between different assets, risk factor analysis and back-test
real world portfolios using actual mutual funds and ETFs.
That this website is free is pretty remarkable.
Robert Shiller's online data
Shiller has one of the longest-running data sets I've
seen. His famous CAPE spreadsheet has the monthly stock
price, interest rate, earnings and dividend data from 1871.
This site has his comprehensive real estate data on home
prices from 100 years ago.
Twitter
People on social media love to complain about social
media, but I find a ton of value in the information I receive
from Twitter TWTR, +1.41% I'm constantly finding helpful
research, graphs, data and analysis that I wouldn't be
exposed to otherwise. Twitter is my go-to source for what's
going on in the world of finance and the markets, along with
under-the-radar research.
Fama-French
Ken French updates this site using much of the research
he's done over the years with Eugene Fama. This one is a
factor investing nerd's dream, although the site does take
some time to figure out how to use efficiently (at least in
my experience). French updates his data regularly with
historical returns on factors such as small-cap stocks, value
stocks, quality stocks and momentum stocks dating to the
1920s. This site has great data on sector and industry
historical returns. All of the data are easily exportable to
Excel.
Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook
Researchers Elroy Dimson, Paul March and Mike Staunton
update this report once a year with numbers on stocks, bonds
and inflation going back to 1900 for a number of countries.
It's worth going through the entire report at least once.
MSCI
MSCI provides the most comprehensive free source of
historical market data on foreign stock markets. It has
performance numbers dating to 1970 for different countries,
regions and markets, both developed and emerging.
Abnormal Returns
The best curated content each and every day on investing,
personal finance, research and anything else in the world of
finance. If you miss anything worth reading, you can be sure
it will be here.
Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)
Econ geeks love this site because the Federal Reserve has
data on almost anything related to economics you can think
of. There's also plenty of good market data on stocks, bonds
and interest rates as well. And the site enables you to
personalize the graphs and data sets.
Morningstar
I find that Morningstar MORN, -0.36% has the best data on
mutual funds and ETFs for performance purposes. You can see
annual returns going back 10 years, and monthly and quarterly
returns going back five years. The company provides after-tax
returns and fund behavior gaps, which I find really useful
for seeing what investors are actually earning in these
funds. You can find breakdowns of fund holdings, investment
styles, geographic allocations and more.
Yahoo Finance
I like Yahoo YHOO, -0.43% Finance for daily historical
data on stocks, interest rates and indexes. It has annual and
quarterly performance numbers for mutual funds from
inception, many of which give you decades of returns.
Portfolio Charts
This is another great asset allocation back-testing tool
that enables you to see how a number of well-known portfolios
have performed over the years. This site has the best visuals
of any I've played around with. You can also stress-test a
large number of asset classes and strategies.
Marketplace Radio Has Not Heard About the Productivity
Slowdown
Marketplace radio had a peculiar piece * asking what the
world would have looked like if the North American Free Trade
Agreement never had been signed. The piece is odd because it
dismisses job concerns associated with NAFTA by telling
readers that automation (i.e. productivity growth) has been
far more important in costing jobs.
"As in, ATMs replacing bankers, robots displacing welders.
Automation is a very old story that goes back 250 years, but
it has really picked up in the last couple decades.
"'We economic developers have an old joke,' said Charles
Hayes of the Research Triangle Regional Partnership in an
interview with Marketplace in 2010. 'The manufacturing
facility of the future will employ two people: one will be a
man, and one will be a dog. And the man will be there to feed
the dog. And the dog will be there to make sure the man
doesn't touch the equipment.'
"Ouch. But it turns out technology replaced workers in the
course of reporting this very story."
Actually, the Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us the
opposite. Productivity growth did pick up from 1995 to 2005,
rising back to its 1947 to 1973 Golden Age pace (a period of
low unemployment and rapidly rising wages), but has slowed
sharply in the last dozen years.
[Graph]
While more rapid productivity growth would allow for
faster wage and overall economic growth, no one has a very
clear path for raising the rate of productivity growth. It is
strange that Marketplace thinks our problem is a too rapid
pace of productivity growth.
The piece is right in saying that the jobs impact of NAFTA
was relatively limited. Certainly trade with China displaced
many more workers. NAFTA may nonetheless have had a negative
impact on the wages of many manufacturing workers. It made
the threat to move operations to Mexico far more credible and
many employers took advantage of this opportunity ** to
discourage workers from joining unions and to make wage
concessions. It's surprising that the piece did not discuss
this effect of NAFTA.
Thanks for the data. It confirms what Dean wrote here:
"the
Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us the opposite.
Productivity growth did pick up from 1995 to 2005, rising
back to its 1947 to 1973 Golden Age pace (a period of low
unemployment and rapidly rising wages), but has slowed
sharply in the last dozen years.
Looking internationally, I consider the evidence conclusive
that productivity growth has slowed significantly since 2005
in countries that have had limited infrastructure
development, regardless of the emphasis in those countries on
information technology advance and application.
The OECD defines it as "the ratio of a volume measure of
output to a volume measure of input".] Volume measures of
output are normally gross domestic product (GDP) or gross
value added (GVA), expressed at constant prices i.e. adjusted
for inflation.
== end of quote ==
If you use GDP the result is suspect for the reasons GDP
is suspect. If not, then it is sector/industry based metric.
In this sense growth of GDP in 1990th is not only the
result of technological changes (Internet, PCs, cell phones)
but also looting of the xUSSR economies
And as looting slowed down after 2000 growth of
productivity also allowed down.
Steve Keen pointed out that all production is driven by
energy (mostly oil and electricity). And the energy comes
ultimately from the sun.
Either it is turned into production via feeding workers,
or by fueling machinery (by burning hydrocarbons or
indirectly via electricity supply).
That means that growth of productivity is inversely
correlated with the price of oil. As the period of cheap
hydrocarbons ended (remember $.99 per gallon of gas in 90th)
the period of rapid productivity growth ended as well.
One of the aspects od the idea of "secular stagnation" is
that high oil prices hit neoliberal economies like a hammer
and the period of high oil prices started to undermine
neoliberal globalization by making shipping more expensive.
That also means that without continuation of low oil
prices the next debt crisis (aka Minsky moment) is eminent
for the USA economy.
BTW none of US shale companies is profitable. They are all
up to the neck in debt, and their method of extracting oil
includes generating a flow of junk bonds. If financing stops
most of them will be bankrupt in one year period.
Obama clever game with Iran helped to produce "Obama
recovery" due to the period of "normal" oil prices which
started in mid 2015.
It probably can be extended for another year or two. What
happens next is completely unknown territory. It is clear
that the US shale is a card that was already played. It can't
be played again as output probably can be substantially
raised (say 2 Mbd/day) only with high or very high oil prices
(as in above $70 or higher).
After "Obama recovery" (which depends on continuing low
oil prices created by clever political maneuvering in Arab
world -- Hail Mary pass that worked) we might well face the
period of "elevated oil prices" and increased stagnation of
the US economy with noticeably higher level of unemployment.
Much depends on Trump playing his trump card of "détente"
with Russia which theoretically could extend this period
(Russia has the same level of oil production as Saudis and
more reserves), but there were to much sand thrown by neocons
and DemoRats for this scenario to work. I thing Russia now is
no longer interested in partnership with the USA on the basis
of maintaining low oil prices -- like KSA today, and might
cut output further to get higher oil prices which are vital
for their economy. Of course Russia has strong neoliberal
fifth column (including pro-western directors of oil
companies and oligarchs who have their wealth transferred to
Western banks) but even they are pissed off by the USA now.
DemoRats wiped up Anti-Russian hysteria to the level when
even contact with Russian official can be a "career limiting
move" in the USA.
This hysteria now has its own self-propagating dynamics
and is difficult to stop. It might last for the same period
of time as McCarthyism hysteria (roughly from 1947 to 1956).
"... "The principal problem for Democrats is that so many
media figures and online charlatans are personally benefiting
from feeding the base increasingly unhinged, fact-free
conspiracies - just as right-wing media polemicists did after
both Bill Clinton and Obama were elected - that there are now
millions of partisan soldiers absolutely convinced of a
Trump/Russia conspiracy for which, at least as of now, there
is no evidence. ..."
It put the Democrats and Republicans in sync as two
equally warmongering parties, but what good that would bring
for the American people and the world is hard to fathom.
The USA lost the possibility of switching personal car
fleet to more economical hybrid models by adopting some
drastic measures and now is less prepared for a new period of
high oil prices. People are still buying SUV which became the
most popular type of personal transportation in the USA, and
small tracks.
On the electricity front there are some problems too. The
looting of Russia and the flow of cheap uranium stopped.
Building of high voltage East -West line necessary for
substantial wind and solar production is still on the drawing
board.
"... The long term absence of convergence in productivity growth between developed and developing countries should be of considerable concern, but seems overlooked even in settings such as trade negotiations in which such concerns especially need to be addressed. ..."
"... You need to understand that like most "integral" metrics (and, especially, like GDP) productivity growth is very suspect. Its importance was artificially amplified under neoliberalism to the "sacred cow" status. ..."
"... While the strong earnings growth of US-based corporations might, at least partially, be real and not all accounting tricks, the question arise what part of those gains are coming from improvements in domestic productivity and what part from offshoring. ..."
"... Productivity growth is an important part of the system of neoliberal myths (along with "cult of GDP" ) and this mythology is directed at deceiving the public that it is indirectly benefitting from the neoliberal transformation of the society, while in reality we observe impoverishment of the majority of population. As in " The USA is the country with fastest productivity grown." Rejoice. ..."
The long term absence of convergence in productivity growth between developed and developing countries
should be of considerable concern, but seems overlooked even in settings such as trade negotiations
in which such concerns especially need to be addressed.
You need to understand that like most "integral" metrics (and, especially, like GDP) productivity
growth is very suspect. Its importance was artificially amplified under neoliberalism to the "sacred
cow" status.
Government bureaucrats also are afraid to tell the truth. Richard Benson , a well-known critic
of government labor statistics, who wrote several insightful papers on the subject, noted "The
BLS is mindful of how politically sensitive any reported job data is to the White House, so there
is a strong bias for the government bureaucrats to publish a favorable jobs report."
One hidden fact is that it is offshoring that is the driver of corporate profits and it distorts
"productivity" statistics.
While the strong earnings growth of US-based corporations might, at least partially, be real
and not all accounting tricks, the question arise what part of those gains are coming from improvements
in domestic productivity and what part from offshoring.
Rising stratification of the society also affects this metric (via the ratio of "have more"
vs "have not")
Productivity growth is an important part of the system of neoliberal myths (along with "cult
of GDP" ) and this mythology is directed at deceiving the public that it is indirectly benefitting
from the neoliberal transformation of the society, while in reality we observe impoverishment
of the majority of population. As in " The USA is the country with fastest productivity grown."
Rejoice.
It is also simplifies the adoption of pro financial oligarchy policies masked with technocratic
jargon -- policies that destroyed New Deal and hurt the majority of the population ("rising labor
costs" is one such usage).
Adopting technocratic posture (economics like Boeing there by using certain controls you can
change flight course) serves like anesthetic. Rephrasing Marx we can say "neoliberal economics
is the opium for the people". And it is by design. which confirms the iron law of oligarchy in
a very interesting, unexpected way.
That's why jargon use by priests of neo-classical economics is almost in-penetrable for an
ordinary person. The well known neoliberal stooge Greenspan was a real master of it.
So the importance assigned to such measures as GDP and productivity is, to a certain extent,
politically motivated.
For example, in the denominator we have all those hedge funds managers and other members of
financial oligarchy bonuses, and top managers exorbitant remuneration within all kinds of firms
(which definitely drives productivity growth down ;-)
In the numerator are military expenses and income of financial sector (and now another somewhat
parasitic sector close to banking -- medical insurance industry).
Both are essentially money stolen from people and, to a certain extent, from "real" economy.
Of cause, not all money are wasted as military spending in addition to war for neoliberal empire
expansion (and related loot) also employs a lot of people and fund fundamental research; the myth
about innovation of Silicon Valley is partially a myth; in reality in many cases this is a direct
transfer of technology from the military sector.
Among the examples are integrated circuits, laser, wireless, Internet, multiprocessing, etc;
even some algorithmic languages :-).
So when you have such fuzzy numerator and denominator, the result is also fuzzy and all conclusions
based on them might be not worth electrons with which they are depicted on our screens.
As I mentioned before, productivity should be somewhat inversely correlated with the oil price,
as "amount of energy per worker" is what defines at the end worker's productivity (via the level
of automation, mechanization of his work). That's were the USA strong (or week, if you wish) point
is -- it has the largest consumption of energy per capita in the world. If we normalize productivity
via per capita energy consumption we will get a more interesting picture.
"... The OECD defines it as "the ratio of a volume measure of output to a volume measure of input".] Volume measures of output are normally gross domestic product (GDP) or gross value added (GVA), expressed at constant prices i.e. adjusted for inflation. ..."
"... If you use GDP the result is suspect for the reasons GDP is suspect. If not, then it is sector/industry based metric. ..."
"... In this sense growth of GDP in 1990th is not only the result of technological changes (Internet, PCs, cell phones) but also looting of the xUSSR economies ..."
"... And as looting slowed down after 2000 growth of productivity also allowed down. ..."
"... One of the aspects of the idea of "secular stagnation" is that high oil prices hit neoliberal economies like a hammer and the period of high oil prices started to undermine neoliberal globalization by making shipping more expensive. ..."
"... BTW none of US shale companies is profitable. They are all up to the neck in debt, and their method of extracting oil includes generating a flow of junk bonds. If financing stops most of them will be bankrupt in one year period. ..."
Marketplace Radio Has Not Heard About the Productivity Slowdown
Marketplace radio had a peculiar piece * asking what the world would have looked like if the
North American Free Trade Agreement never had been signed. The piece is odd because it dismisses
job concerns associated with NAFTA by telling readers that automation (i.e. productivity growth)
has been far more important in costing jobs.
"As in, ATMs replacing bankers, robots displacing welders. Automation is a very old story that
goes back 250 years, but it has really picked up in the last couple decades.
"'We economic developers have an old joke,' said Charles Hayes of the Research Triangle Regional
Partnership in an interview with Marketplace in 2010. 'The manufacturing facility of the future
will employ two people: one will be a man, and one will be a dog. And the man will be there to
feed the dog. And the dog will be there to make sure the man doesn't touch the equipment.'
"Ouch. But it turns out technology replaced workers in the course of reporting this very story."
Actually, the Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us the opposite. Productivity growth did pick
up from 1995 to 2005, rising back to its 1947 to 1973 Golden Age pace (a period of low unemployment
and rapidly rising wages), but has slowed sharply in the last dozen years.
[Graph]
While more rapid productivity growth would allow for faster wage and overall economic growth,
no one has a very clear path for raising the rate of productivity growth. It is strange that Marketplace
thinks our problem is a too rapid pace of productivity growth.
The piece is right in saying that the jobs impact of NAFTA was relatively limited. Certainly
trade with China displaced many more workers. NAFTA may nonetheless have had a negative impact
on the wages of many manufacturing workers. It made the threat to move operations to Mexico far
more credible and many employers took advantage of this opportunity ** to discourage workers from
joining unions and to make wage concessions. It's surprising that the piece did not discuss this
effect of NAFTA.
Thanks for the data. It confirms what Dean wrote here:
"the Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us the opposite. Productivity growth did pick up from
1995 to 2005, rising back to its 1947 to 1973 Golden Age pace (a period of low unemployment and
rapidly rising wages), but has slowed sharply in the last dozen years.
Looking internationally, I consider the evidence conclusive that productivity growth has slowed
significantly since 2005 in countries that have had limited infrastructure development, regardless
of the emphasis in those countries on information technology advance and application.
The OECD defines it as "the ratio of a volume measure of output to a volume measure of
input".] Volume measures of output are normally gross domestic product (GDP) or gross value added
(GVA), expressed at constant prices i.e. adjusted for inflation.
== end of quote ==
If you use GDP the result is suspect for the reasons GDP is suspect. If not, then it is
sector/industry based metric.
In this sense growth of GDP in 1990th is not only the result of technological changes (Internet,
PCs, cell phones) but also looting of the xUSSR economies
And as looting slowed down after 2000 growth of productivity also allowed down.
Steve Keen pointed out that all production is driven by energy (mostly oil and electricity).
And the energy comes ultimately from the sun.
Either it is turned into production via feeding workers, or by fueling machinery (by burning
hydrocarbons or indirectly via electricity supply).
That means that growth of productivity is inversely correlated with the price of oil. As the
period of cheap hydrocarbons ended (remember $.99 per gallon of gas in 90th) the period of rapid
productivity growth ended as well.
One of the aspects of the idea of "secular stagnation" is that high oil prices hit neoliberal
economies like a hammer and the period of high oil prices started to undermine neoliberal globalization
by making shipping more expensive.
That also means that without continuation of low oil prices the next debt crisis (aka Minsky
moment) is eminent for the USA economy.
BTW none of US shale companies is profitable. They are all up to the neck in debt, and
their method of extracting oil includes generating a flow of junk bonds. If financing stops most
of them will be bankrupt in one year period.
Obama clever game with Iran helped to produce "Obama recovery" due to the period of "normal"
oil prices which started in mid 2015.
It probably can be extended for another year or two. What happens next is completely unknown
territory. It is clear that the US shale is a card that was already played. It can't be played
again as output probably can be substantially raised (say 2 Mbd/day) only with high or very high
oil prices (as in above $70 or higher).
After "Obama recovery" (which depends on continuing low oil prices created by clever political
maneuvering in Arab world -- Hail Mary pass that worked) we might well face the period of "elevated
oil prices" and increased stagnation of the US economy with noticeably higher level of unemployment.
Much depends on Trump playing his trump card of "détente" with Russia which theoretically could
extend this period (Russia has the same level of oil production as Saudis and more reserves),
but there were to much sand thrown by neocons and DemoRats for this scenario to work. I thing
Russia now is no longer interested in partnership with the USA on the basis of maintaining low
oil prices -- like KSA today, and might cut output further to get higher oil prices which are
vital for their economy. Of course Russia has strong neoliberal fifth column (including pro-western
directors of oil companies and oligarchs who have their wealth transferred to Western banks) but
even they are pissed off by the USA now.
DemoRats wiped up Anti-Russian hysteria to the level when even contact with Russian official
can be a "career limiting move" in the USA.
This hysteria now has its own self-propagating dynamics and is difficult to stop. It might
last for the same period of time as McCarthyism hysteria (roughly from 1947 to 1956).
"... "The principal problem for Democrats is that so many media figures and online charlatans
are personally benefiting from feeding the base increasingly unhinged, fact-free conspiracies
- just as right-wing media polemicists did after both Bill Clinton and Obama were elected - that
there are now millions of partisan soldiers absolutely convinced of a Trump/Russia conspiracy
for which, at least as of now, there is no evidence. ..."
It put the Democrats and Republicans in sync as two equally warmongering parties, but what
good that would bring for the American people and the world is hard to fathom.
The USA lost the possibility of switching personal car fleet to more economical hybrid models
by adopting some drastic measures and now is less prepared for a new period of high oil prices.
People are still buying SUV which became the most popular type of personal transportation in the
USA, and small tracks.
On the electricity front there are some problems too. The looting of Russia and the flow of
cheap uranium stopped. Building of high voltage East -West line necessary for substantial wind
and solar production is still on the drawing board.
"... As recognized since ancient times, the coexistence of very rich and very poor leads to two possibilities, neither a happy one. The rich can rule alone, disenfranchising or even enslaving the poor, or the poor can rise up and confiscate the wealth of the rich. The rich tend to see themselves as better than the poor, a proclivity that is enhanced and even socially sanctioned in modern meritocracies. The poor, with little prospect of economic improvement and no access to political power, "might turn to a demagogue who would overthrow the government - only to become a tyrant. Oligarchy or tyranny, economic inequality meant the end of the republic." ..."
"... Some constitutions were written to contain inequalities. In Rome, the patricians ruled, but could be overruled by plebeian tribunes whose role was to protect the poor. There are constitutions with lords and commoners in separate chambers, each with well-defined powers. Sitaraman calls these "class warfare constitutions," and argues that the founding fathers of the United States found another way, a republic of equals. The middle classes, who according to David Hume were obsessed neither with pleasure-seeking, as were the rich, nor with meeting basic necessities, as were the poor, and were thus amenable to reason, could be a firm basis for a republic run in the public interest. There is some sketchy evidence that income and wealth inequality was indeed low in the 18th century, but the crucial point is that early America was an agrarian society of cultivators with an open frontier. No one needed to be poor when land was available in the West. ..."
"... Jefferson was proud of his achievement in abolishing the entail and primogeniture in Virginia, writing the laws that "laid the ax to the root of Pseudoaristocracy." He called for progressive taxation and, like the other founders, feared that the inheritance of wealth would lead to the establishment of an aristocracy. ..."
"... Madison tried to calculate how long the frontier would last, and understood the threat to the Constitution that industrialization would bring; many of the founders thought of wage labor as little better than slavery and hoped that America could remain an agrarian society. ..."
"... In perhaps the most original part of his book, Sitaraman, an associate professor of law at Vanderbilt Law School, highlights the achievements of the Progressive movement, one of whose aims was taming inequality, and which successfully modified the Constitution. There were four constitutional amendments in seven years - the direct election of senators, the franchise for women, the prohibition of alcohol and the income tax. To which I would add another reform, the establishment of the Federal Reserve, which provided a mechanism for handling financial crises without the need for the government to be bailed out by rich bankers, as well as the reduction in the tariff, which favored ordinary people by bringing down the cost of manufactures. Politics can respond to inequality, and the Constitution is not set in stone. ..."
"... It's interesting that the language of inequality is the language of technocrats, however worthy. It's a way to talk about the politics without referring to Marxist or populist/labor traditions which often involve social movements. ..."
It's Not Just Unfair: Inequality Is a Threat to Our Governance
By ANGUS DEATON
THE CRISIS OF THE MIDDLE-CLASS CONSTITUTION
Why Economic Inequality Threatens Our Republic
By Ganesh Sitaraman
President Obama labeled income inequality "the defining challenge of our time." But why exactly?
And why "our time" especially? In part because we now know just how much goes to the very top
of the income distribution, and beyond that, we know that recent economic growth, which has been
anemic in any case, has accrued mostly to those who were already well-heeled, leaving stagnation
or worse for many Americans. But why is this a problem?
Why am I hurt if Mark Zuckerberg develops Facebook, and gets rich on the proceeds? Some care
about the unfairness of income inequality itself, some care about the loss of upward mobility
and declining opportunities for our kids and some care about how people get rich - hard work and
innovation are O.K., but theft, legal or otherwise, is not. Yet there is one threat of inequality
that is widely feared, and that has been debated for thousands of years, which is that inequality
can undermine governance. In his fine book, both history and call to arms, Ganesh Sitaraman argues
that the contemporary explosion of inequality will destroy the American Constitution, which is
and was premised on the existence of a large and thriving middle class. He has done us all a great
service, taking an issue of overwhelming public importance, delving into its history, helping
understand how our forebears handled it and building a platform to think about it today.
As recognized since ancient times, the coexistence of very rich and very poor leads to two
possibilities, neither a happy one. The rich can rule alone, disenfranchising or even enslaving
the poor, or the poor can rise up and confiscate the wealth of the rich. The rich tend to see
themselves as better than the poor, a proclivity that is enhanced and even socially sanctioned
in modern meritocracies. The poor, with little prospect of economic improvement and no access
to political power, "might turn to a demagogue who would overthrow the government - only to become
a tyrant. Oligarchy or tyranny, economic inequality meant the end of the republic."
Some constitutions were written to contain inequalities. In Rome, the patricians ruled, but
could be overruled by plebeian tribunes whose role was to protect the poor. There are constitutions
with lords and commoners in separate chambers, each with well-defined powers. Sitaraman calls
these "class warfare constitutions," and argues that the founding fathers of the United States
found another way, a republic of equals. The middle classes, who according to David Hume were
obsessed neither with pleasure-seeking, as were the rich, nor with meeting basic necessities,
as were the poor, and were thus amenable to reason, could be a firm basis for a republic run in
the public interest. There is some sketchy evidence that income and wealth inequality was indeed
low in the 18th century, but the crucial point is that early America was an agrarian society of
cultivators with an open frontier. No one needed to be poor when land was available in the West.
The founders worried a good deal about people getting too rich. Jefferson was proud of his
achievement in abolishing the entail and primogeniture in Virginia, writing the laws that "laid
the ax to the root of Pseudoaristocracy." He called for progressive taxation and, like the other
founders, feared that the inheritance of wealth would lead to the establishment of an aristocracy.
(Contrast this with those today who simultaneously advocate both equality of opportunity and the
abolition of estate taxes.) Madison tried to calculate how long the frontier would last, and understood
the threat to the Constitution that industrialization would bring; many of the founders thought
of wage labor as little better than slavery and hoped that America could remain an agrarian society.
Of course, the fears about industrialization were realized, and by the late 19th century, in
the Gilded Age, income inequality had reached levels comparable to those we see today. In perhaps
the most original part of his book, Sitaraman, an associate professor of law at Vanderbilt Law
School, highlights the achievements of the Progressive movement, one of whose aims was taming
inequality, and which successfully modified the Constitution. There were four constitutional amendments
in seven years - the direct election of senators, the franchise for women, the prohibition of
alcohol and the income tax. To which I would add another reform, the establishment of the Federal
Reserve, which provided a mechanism for handling financial crises without the need for the government
to be bailed out by rich bankers, as well as the reduction in the tariff, which favored ordinary
people by bringing down the cost of manufactures. Politics can respond to inequality, and the
Constitution is not set in stone.
What of today, when inequality is back in full force? ...
Angus Deaton, a professor emeritus at Princeton, was awarded the Nobel in economic science in
2015.
Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century
By Anne Case and Angus Deaton
Summary
We build on and extend the findings in Case and Deaton (2015 * ) on increases in mortality
and morbidity among white non-Hispanic Americans in midlife since the turn of the century. Increases
in all-cause mortality continued unabated to 2015, with additional increases in drug overdoses,
suicides, and alcoholic-related liver mortality, particularly among those with a high-school degree
or less. The decline in mortality from heart disease has slowed and, most recently, stopped, and
this combined with the three other causes is responsible for the increase in all-cause mortality.
Not only are educational differences in mortality among whites increasing, but mortality is rising
for those without, and falling for those with, a college degree. This is true for non-Hispanic
white men and women in all age groups from 25-29 through 60-64. Mortality rates among blacks and
Hispanics continue to fall; in 1999, the mortality rate of white non-Hispanics aged 50-54 with
only a high-school degree was 30 percent lower than the mortality rate of blacks in the same age
group; by 2015, it was 30 percent higher. There are similar crossovers between white and black
mortality in all age groups from 25-29 to 60-64.
Mortality rates in comparable rich countries have continued their pre-millennial fall at the
rates that used to characterize the US. In contrast to the US, mortality rates in Europe are falling
for those with low levels of educational attainment, and are doing so more rapidly than mortality
rates for those with higher levels of education.
Many commentators have suggested that the poor mortality outcomes can be attributed to slowly
growing, stagnant, and even declining incomes; we evaluate this possibility, but find that it
cannot provide a comprehensive explanation. In particular, the income profiles for blacks and
Hispanics, whose mortality has fallen, are no better than those for whites. Nor is there any evidence
in the European data that mortality trends match income trends, in spite of sharply different
patterns of median income across countries after the Great Recession.
We propose a preliminary but plausible story in which cumulative disadvantage over life, in
the labor market, in marriage and child outcomes, and in health, is triggered by progressively
worsening labor market opportunities at the time of entry for whites with low levels of education.
This account, which fits much of the data, has the profoundly negative implication that policies,
even ones that successfully improve earnings and jobs, or redistribute income, will take many
years to reverse the mortality and morbidity increase, and that those in midlife now are likely
to do much worse in old age than those currently older than 65. This is in contrast to an account
in which resources affect health contemporaneously, so that those in midlife now can expect to
do better in old age as they receive Social Security and Medicare. None of this implies that there
are no policy levers to be pulled; preventing the over-prescription of opioids is an obvious target
that would clearly be helpful.
"Of course, the fears about industrialization were realized, and by the late 19th century, in
the Gilded Age, income inequality had reached levels comparable to those we see today. In perhaps
the most original part of his book, Sitaraman, an associate professor of law at Vanderbilt Law
School, highlights the achievements of the Progressive movement, one of whose aims was taming
inequality, and which successfully modified the Constitution. There were four constitutional amendments
in seven years - the direct election of senators, the franchise for women, the prohibition of
alcohol and the income tax. To which I would add another reform, the establishment of the Federal
Reserve, which provided a mechanism for handling financial crises without the need for the government
to be bailed out by rich bankers, as well as the reduction in the tariff, which favored ordinary
people by bringing down the cost of manufactures. "
It's interesting that the language of inequality is the language of technocrats, however worthy.
It's a way to talk about the politics without referring to Marxist or populist/labor traditions
which often involve social movements.
Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century
By Anne Case and Angus Deaton
Summary
We build on and extend the findings in Case and Deaton (2015 * ) on increases in mortality
and morbidity among white non-Hispanic Americans in midlife since the turn of the century. Increases
in all-cause mortality continued unabated to 2015, with additional increases in drug overdoses,
suicides, and alcoholic-related liver mortality, particularly among those with a high-school degree
or less. The decline in mortality from heart disease has slowed and, most recently, stopped, and
this combined with the three other causes is responsible for the increase in all-cause mortality.
Not only are educational differences in mortality among whites increasing, but mortality is rising
for those without, and falling for those with, a college degree. This is true for non-Hispanic
white men and women in all age groups from 25-29 through 60-64. Mortality rates among blacks and
Hispanics continue to fall; in 1999, the mortality rate of white non-Hispanics aged 50-54 with
only a high-school degree was 30 percent lower than the mortality rate of blacks in the same age
group; by 2015, it was 30 percent higher. There are similar crossovers between white and black
mortality in all age groups from 25-29 to 60-64.
Mortality rates in comparable rich countries have continued their pre-millennial fall at the
rates that used to characterize the US. In contrast to the US, mortality rates in Europe are falling
for those with low levels of educational attainment, and are doing so more rapidly than mortality
rates for those with higher levels of education.
Many commentators have suggested that the poor mortality outcomes can be attributed to slowly
growing, stagnant, and even declining incomes; we evaluate this possibility, but find that it
cannot provide a comprehensive explanation. In particular, the income profiles for blacks and
Hispanics, whose mortality has fallen, are no better than those for whites. Nor is there any evidence
in the European data that mortality trends match income trends, in spite of sharply different
patterns of median income across countries after the Great Recession.
We propose a preliminary but plausible story in which cumulative disadvantage over life, in
the labor market, in marriage and child outcomes, and in health, is triggered by progressively
worsening labor market opportunities at the time of entry for whites with low levels of education.
This account, which fits much of the data, has the profoundly negative implication that policies,
even ones that successfully improve earnings and jobs, or redistribute income, will take many
years to reverse the mortality and morbidity increase, and that those in midlife now are likely
to do much worse in old age than those currently older than 65. This is in contrast to an account
in which resources affect health contemporaneously, so that those in midlife now can expect to
do better in old age as they receive Social Security and Medicare. None of this implies that there
are no policy levers to be pulled; preventing the over-prescription of opioids is an obvious target
that would clearly be helpful.
"Of course, the fears about industrialization were realized, and by the late 19th century, in
the Gilded Age, income inequality had reached levels comparable to those we see today. In perhaps
the most original part of his book, Sitaraman, an associate professor of law at Vanderbilt Law
School, highlights the achievements of the Progressive movement, one of whose aims was taming
inequality, and which successfully modified the Constitution. There were four constitutional amendments
in seven years - the direct election of senators, the franchise for women, the prohibition of
alcohol and the income tax. To which I would add another reform, the establishment of the Federal
Reserve, which provided a mechanism for handling financial crises without the need for the government
to be bailed out by rich bankers, as well as the reduction in the tariff, which favored ordinary
people by bringing down the cost of manufactures. "
It's interesting that the language of inequality is the language of technocrats, however worthy.
It's a way to talk about the politics without referring to Marxist or populist/labor traditions
which often involve social movements.
It's Not Just Unfair: Inequality Is a Threat to Our Governance
By ANGUS DEATON
THE CRISIS OF THE MIDDLE-CLASS CONSTITUTION
Why Economic Inequality Threatens Our Republic
By Ganesh Sitaraman
President Obama labeled income inequality "the defining challenge
of our time." But why exactly? And why "our time" especially?
In part because we now know just how much goes to the very top
of the income distribution, and beyond that, we know that recent
economic growth, which has been anemic in any case, has accrued
mostly to those who were already well-heeled, leaving stagnation
or worse for many Americans. But why is this a problem?
Why am I hurt if Mark Zuckerberg develops Facebook, and gets
rich on the proceeds? Some care about the unfairness of income
inequality itself, some care about the loss of upward mobility
and declining opportunities for our kids and some care about
how people get rich - hard work and innovation are O.K., but
theft, legal or otherwise, is not. Yet there is one threat of
inequality that is widely feared, and that has been debated for
thousands of years, which is that inequality can undermine governance.
In his fine book, both history and call to arms, Ganesh Sitaraman
argues that the contemporary explosion of inequality will destroy
the American Constitution, which is and was premised on the existence
of a large and thriving middle class. He has done us all a great
service, taking an issue of overwhelming public importance, delving
into its history, helping understand how our forebears handled
it and building a platform to think about it today.
As recognized since ancient times, the coexistence of very
rich and very poor leads to two possibilities, neither a happy
one. The rich can rule alone, disenfranchising or even enslaving
the poor, or the poor can rise up and confiscate the wealth of
the rich. The rich tend to see themselves as better than the
poor, a proclivity that is enhanced and even socially sanctioned
in modern meritocracies. The poor, with little prospect of economic
improvement and no access to political power, "might turn to
a demagogue who would overthrow the government - only to become
a tyrant. Oligarchy or tyranny, economic inequality meant the
end of the republic."
Some constitutions were written to contain inequalities. In
Rome, the patricians ruled, but could be overruled by plebeian
tribunes whose role was to protect the poor. There are constitutions
with lords and commoners in separate chambers, each with well-defined
powers. Sitaraman calls these "class warfare constitutions,"
and argues that the founding fathers of the United States found
another way, a republic of equals. The middle classes, who according
to David Hume were obsessed neither with pleasure-seeking, as
were the rich, nor with meeting basic necessities, as were the
poor, and were thus amenable to reason, could be a firm basis
for a republic run in the public interest. There is some sketchy
evidence that income and wealth inequality was indeed low in
the 18th century, but the crucial point is that early America
was an agrarian society of cultivators with an open frontier.
No one needed to be poor when land was available in the West.
The founders worried a good deal about people getting too
rich. Jefferson was proud of his achievement in abolishing the
entail and primogeniture in Virginia, writing the laws that "laid
the ax to the root of Pseudoaristocracy." He called for progressive
taxation and, like the other founders, feared that the inheritance
of wealth would lead to the establishment of an aristocracy.
(Contrast this with those today who simultaneously advocate both
equality of opportunity and the abolition of estate taxes.) Madison
tried to calculate how long the frontier would last, and understood
the threat to the Constitution that industrialization would bring;
many of the founders thought of wage labor as little better than
slavery and hoped that America could remain an agrarian society.
Of course, the fears about industrialization were realized,
and by the late 19th century, in the Gilded Age, income inequality
had reached levels comparable to those we see today. In perhaps
the most original part of his book, Sitaraman, an associate professor
of law at Vanderbilt Law School, highlights the achievements
of the Progressive movement, one of whose aims was taming inequality,
and which successfully modified the Constitution. There were
four constitutional amendments in seven years - the direct election
of senators, the franchise for women, the prohibition of alcohol
and the income tax. To which I would add another reform, the
establishment of the Federal Reserve, which provided a mechanism
for handling financial crises without the need for the government
to be bailed out by rich bankers, as well as the reduction in
the tariff, which favored ordinary people by bringing down the
cost of manufactures. Politics can respond to inequality, and
the Constitution is not set in stone.
What of today, when inequality is back in full force? ...
Angus Deaton, a professor emeritus at Princeton, was awarded
the Nobel in economic science in 2015.
Mortality and morbidity in the 21st century
By Anne Case and Angus Deaton
Summary
We build on and extend the findings in Case and Deaton (2015
* ) on increases in mortality and morbidity among white non-Hispanic
Americans in midlife since the turn of the century. Increases
in all-cause mortality continued unabated to 2015, with additional
increases in drug overdoses, suicides, and alcoholic-related
liver mortality, particularly among those with a high-school
degree or less. The decline in mortality from heart disease has
slowed and, most recently, stopped, and this combined with the
three other causes is responsible for the increase in all-cause
mortality. Not only are educational differences in mortality
among whites increasing, but mortality is rising for those without,
and falling for those with, a college degree. This is true for
non-Hispanic white men and women in all age groups from 25-29
through 60-64. Mortality rates among blacks and Hispanics continue
to fall; in 1999, the mortality rate of white non-Hispanics aged
50-54 with only a high-school degree was 30 percent lower than
the mortality rate of blacks in the same age group; by 2015,
it was 30 percent higher. There are similar crossovers between
white and black mortality in all age groups from 25-29 to 60-64.
Mortality rates in comparable rich countries have continued
their pre-millennial fall at the rates that used to characterize
the US. In contrast to the US, mortality rates in Europe are
falling for those with low levels of educational attainment,
and are doing so more rapidly than mortality rates for those
with higher levels of education.
Many commentators have suggested that the poor mortality outcomes
can be attributed to slowly growing, stagnant, and even declining
incomes; we evaluate this possibility, but find that it cannot
provide a comprehensive explanation. In particular, the income
profiles for blacks and Hispanics, whose mortality has fallen,
are no better than those for whites. Nor is there any evidence
in the European data that mortality trends match income trends,
in spite of sharply different patterns of median income across
countries after the Great Recession.
We propose a preliminary but plausible story in which cumulative
disadvantage over life, in the labor market, in marriage and
child outcomes, and in health, is triggered by progressively
worsening labor market opportunities at the time of entry for
whites with low levels of education. This account, which fits
much of the data, has the profoundly negative implication that
policies, even ones that successfully improve earnings and jobs,
or redistribute income, will take many years to reverse the mortality
and morbidity increase, and that those in midlife now are likely
to do much worse in old age than those currently older than 65.
This is in contrast to an account in which resources affect health
contemporaneously, so that those in midlife now can expect to
do better in old age as they receive Social Security and Medicare.
None of this implies that there are no policy levers to be pulled;
preventing the over-prescription of opioids is an obvious target
that would clearly be helpful.
"Of course, the fears about industrialization were realized,
and by the late 19th century, in the Gilded Age, income inequality
had reached levels comparable to those we see today. In perhaps
the most original part of his book, Sitaraman, an associate professor
of law at Vanderbilt Law School, highlights the achievements
of the Progressive movement, one of whose aims was taming inequality,
and which successfully modified the Constitution. There were
four constitutional amendments in seven years - the direct election
of senators, the franchise for women, the prohibition of alcohol
and the income tax. To which I would add another reform, the
establishment of the Federal Reserve, which provided a mechanism
for handling financial crises without the need for the government
to be bailed out by rich bankers, as well as the reduction in
the tariff, which favored ordinary people by bringing down the
cost of manufactures. "
It's interesting that the language
of inequality is the language of technocrats, however worthy.
It's a way to talk about the politics without referring to
Marxist or populist/labor traditions which often involve social
movements.
There is more than one joke. Our constitutional dollar
democracy with its gerrymandering, limitless congressional
revolving doors, SCOTUS unanswerable to the electorate, and
first past the post voting provides loads of punch lines, not
the least of which is the de facto two party system itself.
Two competitors is merely duopoly. It takes a minimum of
three viable choices to have any returns from competition
that are significant to the consumers' preferences. Two
competitors merely play off each other in predictable and
increasingly ossified patterns.
One very big quibble: >>SCOTUS unanswerable to the
electorate<<
As bad as the SCOTUS can be, it would be
unimaginably worse if it were subject to elections.
The big problem is that the Founders did not imagine life
expectancies into the 80s. Throughout the 19th Century, the
median time on the bench was about 14 years, and about 1/3 of
all Justices served less than 10 years -- they got sick or
died. Now the median time on the bench is 25 years, which is
totally unacceptable.
If SCOTUS terms were set at 18 years, with a new Justice
appointed every 2 years, independence would be preserved
without the imposition of the "dead hands." Emeritus Justices
could continue to serve on the appellate courts, and
provisions would have to be made for deaths or retirements
during the 18 year terms, but you get the idea.
I did not mean elections. One of my favorite planks of the
1912 Bull Moose Party was the right for popular petition and
referendum to overturn an unpopular SCOTUS decision. Roe V.
Wade could not be overturned by referendum (which some fear
but votes are measured by heat count rather than audible
volume). Citizen United would be overturned by referendum. I
trust democracy more than most, but still I don't get silly
about it.
I will take your word for it. We don't watch either CNN nor
Fox News at my house. Mostly we watch local (same news and
weather crew here appears on each the WWBT/WRLH local NBC/Fox
affiliates) news with some sampling of MSNBC and Sunday
morning ABC and CBS shows along with the daily half hour of
NBC network following the evening local. Cable news is sort
of an oxymoron given the prevailing editorial slants. The now
retired local TV news anchor Gene Cox laid the groundwork for
the best news team in central VA by setting a high bar at his
station. Gene laid it all out southern fried with satirical
humor and honesty unusual in TV news.
Ok, so, who do you want a post mortum to produce as the
Democratic Trump?
Who would be the Democratic Freedom
caucus obstructing all change unless all private property is
confiscated?
You are merely saying Democrats must be more like
Republicans. More extreme.
Democrats are centrists and moderates and thus unable to
promise silver bullet solutions, free lunches, ...
Democrats just can't lie like Republicans have
increasingly done since Reagan promised free lunches and
failed to deliver, causing increasing anger among those
Reagan betrayed.
Maybe a post mortem would simply reveal that Democrats should
have had a coherent economic message and pursued a strategy
of standing up for working America for the past 8 years. For
example, having Pelosi demand votes on increasing the minimum
wage as often as Ryan demanded votes on killing Obamacare...
Any honest post mortem would have revealed that standing with
billionaires and the Wall Street banking cartel--and not
prosecuting a single Wall Street banker--is not a winning
strategy...
Do you understand how Congress Works?
Pelosi has not had power to demand any votes since 2010.
As soon as the Dems came to power in 2007, they raised the
MinWage and Bush signed.
There were several yearly increases.
You are repeating GOP nonsense
Do you understand how Congress works? Pelosi could have
proposed legislation in 2009-2010 to increase the minimum
wage and index it to inflation. With a filibuster proof
majority in the Senate it could have passed.
The Senate
could have repeatedly proposed increasing the minimum wage
any time until 2015...and Democrats could have attempted to
attach minimum wage legislation as a budget rider any time
they wanted. They didn't.
That Pelosi did not resign immediately following the 2016
election or, not having offered her resignation, that
Congressional Democrats did not demand it is an indication
that the party still has deep-rooted problems. (Pelosi may
not be the cause of those problems but given how badly
they've fared since 2010 she's clearly not the solution. She
has no business remaining as minority leader.) I'm fine with
Perez as DNC chair but Ellison should be minority leader.
"Medicare for all" may be the best battle cry. 65-70% of the
U.S. people want a single-payer. Bernie Sanders has
effectively destroyed the old Democratic Party and sits in a
commanding position as spokesman, he gets 6 TV cameras with
an hour's notice and he is probably the most popular
politician in the U.S. The Democrats don't have to push it
for now, they can wait for news to develop. This is all on
the Republicans. Let the managerial disaster of Trump and the
utter immorality of the "Freedom Caucus" sink in a little
more, this story has "legs" as they say in show biz.
David Frum, the excommunicated conservative wrote in 2010:
""The real leaders are on TV and radio"
Bernie Sanders is
the Dems TV leader.
Simple ideas repeated endlessly, easy to memorize slogans
Knows how to manipulate emotions
In the Twitter Age, this is how all successful politicians
must message
Simple
slogans repeated often isn't a new approach to politics. It
goes back well over a century. "Keep it simple and take
credit." Liberals haven't been very good at that in recent
decades. (In contrast, FDR was.) Most people aren't wonks nor
do they desire to become one. Messaging which presumes that
they are or do is not a recipe for success.
Sanders has not "destroyed" the old Democratic Party.
He is a better TV messenger and ambassador to the public
He plays the Paternalistic Grandfather who does not trigger
culture shock among white voters on TV
More like the cranky uncle, whom you had better listen to.
Bernie Sanders is currently the most popular politician in
the United States, by a long shot:
Sanders won New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska, Maine, Michigan, Idaho, Utah,
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Rhode Island,
Indiana, West Virginia, Oregon, Montana, North Dakota.
*and
he was close in many states like losing Massachusetts 606k to
589k. And the entire second half of the primary the DNC was
repeating how Hillary had won mathematically over and over
even though people hadn't voted.
"Sanders has not "destroyed" the old Democratic Party"
No
he is not stupid. What he has done is moving the Overton
window - something that was long overdue. There is definitely
an opening to make ObamaCare the first step towards MediCare
for all (as it always was intended by by all but the
bluedogs). But as good as Sanders is at message and getting
the crowds going, he is going to need help with the
politicking to actually get it done.
One issue going forward is whether the Dems should offer
their own plan. I think they should.
As a few others have
pointed out, Trump is not wedded to the GOP establishment. If
he thinks he can "WIN bigly!" by allying with Dems, he will
do so. I happen to think that he is mainly against
"Obamacare" because Obama humiliated him at the White House
Correspondents' Dinner once upon a time, and he is nothing if
not vengeful. He wants to obliterate Obama's legacy.
So Dems need to make a big stink any time Trump
administrativley undercuts Obamacare provisions to try to
make it fail. But also they should give him the chance to do
something he can call Trumpcare that actually works.
Obamacare does have some major problems (the individual
mandate is hated, and the penalty isn't big enough. More
young people need to buy in. Some of the Exchanges and health
care provider networks are too narrow.
In addition to the "public option" and age 55+ Medicare
buy-in, one thing that might work is abollishing the mandate
and penalty and replaciing them with automatic enrollment.
Call it "You're employed, you're covered!"
Just like SS, Medicare, unemployment and disability
deductions to paychecks, establish a Health Care automatic
deductible. If your employer offers healthcare, the
deductible is reduced by the amount of the premium, all the
way to zero if applicable.
If your employer doesn't offer healthcare, if you are under
age 40, you are automatically enrolled in the least expensive
Bronze plan in your state. If you are 40 or older, you are
automatically enrolled in the least expensive Silver plan in
your state.
The deductible would also include a small contribution
towards Medicaid. Then, if you are unemployed, you are
automatically enrolled in Medicaid, but can continue with the
silver or bronze plan as above if you choose.
Dems could turmpet such a plan to "Reform and Improve"
Obamacare, and campaign on pushing for it if they get a
Congressional majority. Call it Trumpcare and President
Caligula might sign on.
I agree that there might be an opening for that after the
midterms. If Trump pushes on the weak spots of ObamaCare
rather than fixing them, he will have backed himself into a
corner that only the democrats can help him get out of. Right
now democrats just need to do a lot of nice talk about being
willing to sit down with the President and negotiate a common
sense bipartisan solution.
No. Republicans must be driven by fear to sit down with
Democrats to get their help. Republicans must own whatever
they get Democrats to support so Republicans can't turn
around and attack the result like they attacked the
Republican defined Obamacare.
Medicaid is Republican
defined - Medicare for the poor gave too much to the inferior
poor and disabled. The old were superior because they are the
fit who survived, thus they are rewarded with Medicare.
The Obamacare public option is Medicaid. Government health
care for losers. Anyone can qualify by choosing to be losers.
Obamacare does have the public option progressives demanded,
but it's not the public option for winners.
Name the Senators, representatives, and governors Bernie Bros
have delivered?
Where are the Bernie Bros Newts, Cruz,
Marcos, ...?
I'm in my 70th year. Conservatives attacked liberals in
the 60s, my youth, as promising free lunches to gain power.
But what they really hated was liberals convinced voters to
tax all voters to pay for the things most voters wanted
everyone to have, BASED ON SOUND ECONOMICS TO MAXIMIZE
EFFICIENCY AND WELFARE.
Friedman led the effort to distort theory to eliminate the
broad meaning of general welfare in economics. He did it by
eliminating the hard connection between labor cost and gdp.
He argued that labor costs and consumption can be cut to
increase profits, and that contrary to theory, higher profits
is more efficient.
Laffer applied operations theory to taxes, as if
government was taxing to maximize profits.
Thus supply side theory of profit maximization.
The result delivered was the imperative to cut taxes. To
cut labor costs.
Thus they argued that every economic measure improves if
taxes and wages are cut.
Reaganomics would deliver more stuff at lower cost, higher
profut, and that makes everyone better off, especially those
in poverty.
Friedman saw consumption as a bad thing. He wanted higher
gdp, less consumption.
In other words, he rewrote Adam Smith attack on mercantile
economics into a justification of returning to mercantile
economic policy.
So, who do Bernie Bros offer as the Milton Friedman and
Laffer to create an intellectual foundation to refute Adam
Smith, FDR, Keynes, Galbraith, are return to hunter gatherer
economics? Who is the economist who can convince us that
Marxist economic theory will work, as long as it's not
captured by right wing capitalists like Fidel Castro, Chavez,
Stalin, Lenin, the founders of Israel, ....
Bernie certainly must be influenced by the same economic
theory that created Israel. It grew from the same Marxist
roots in Germany that powered Stalin and Lenin. Bernie is a
pre-WWII Zionist as best I can tell.
Why wouldn't Bernie deliver Israel governance to the US?
How would he prevent the greedy from joining the Movement?
And Israel has the social welfare state system Bernie
wants. Hundreds of thousands of men do not work so they can
study supported by welfare. Universal health care. Women are
very equal in status.
I grew up heating the Zionist Dream, theory, much like
Bernie did, but from conservative Indiana. Seemed very
idealist virtue becoming reality in the 50s and 60s.
I have often used Israel as the example of a good
universal health care system, of education, of welfare.
Never heard Bernie say, "I want the US to be like Israel."
Why not? Why Sweden?
Frank is wrong. What the GOP establishment dislikes most
about Obamacare is the taxes on the wealthy. Medicare for all
would have to be paid for by taxes on the wealthy or
substantial payroll tax increases on the working class.
This does not meet GOP or Trump objectives for tax cuts on
the wealthy.
The TV and radio talk uses Obamacare bashing to sell ads.
They can easily change the subject to some other click bait.
Medicare for all? NaGonnaHappN
Frank was not suggesting that the GOP establishment would
support Medicare for all. Frank was suggesting that Trump
would essentially change parties to become a Democrat. As
dubious as that notion is, more importantly it is premature.
If Democrats win back both chambers of Congress, then it
would at least be mechanically possible if still
extraordinarily dubious. Mostly though Frank was just
reaching for something worth saying. Now is a tuff time for
commentary on the political economy.
Jonny Bakho: "Medicare for all would have to be paid for by
taxes"
Theoretically you don't have to raises taxes if you
get private insurers out of the game. They are a big expense,
and give no value-added.
Doesn't mean that is politically possible, with Trump and
a GOP Congress. But Trump and a Democratic Congress? I
couldn't predict. Keep in mind that this man is almost an
ideological vacuum, no managerial skills, has no constant
concerns for anything except keeping himself in the
spotlights, to be loved. And he just learned that the Freedom
Caucus is implacably nuts.
Thank the Great
Flying Spaghetti Monster for that!!!!
Everytime the centrist dems - or mainly GOPers - try to
sell out social insurance programs, the Freedom Caucus stands
in their way. As a progressive, I am deeply and profoundly
grateful!
"They are a big expense, and give no value-added."
[Someone
has to do claims processing. The resistance against growing
the federal payroll is an unnecessary hurdle for Medicare for
all (MFA) to jump. Better administer it more like Medicaid.
Let insurance companies handle the operations for a fee.
Federal claim payments are handled on a pass thru. Then let
the operational administration default to the MFA
supplemental plan carrier if the insured has one, else the
lowest cost carrier in the insured's state. For MFA clients
then there could be a single claims process for providers
even for patients with both MFA and MFA supplemental
policies. That lowers the hurdle for MFA to leap over the
insurance company lobby as well.]
Most of health insurance claims processing has been automated
for a long time. Still it takes a lot of worker-hours to
reconcile the errors.
Imagine how many worker hours it will take to reconcile
liabilities for the first multi-car multi-fatality pile up of
robot cars on the LA freeway. It will not matter that in
total there have been less collisions and less fatalities
when the big one hits. Computers are incapable of intuitive
judgement which leads to blunders of potentially a colossal
scale occurring that could have easily been foreseen by a
human. To err is human but it takes a computer to really
screw things up beyond all recognition. It is just a matter
of time and time is always on Murphy's (that which can go
wrong will go wrong) side. I know that myths about computers
that never make mistakes and never need to be programmed
again abound and I am sure that they will still be with us
20,000 years from now, when we are not even in any memory
banks. I spent my entire career about to be replaced by
software, but I was finally laid off because of
administrative concerns with regards to legacy managed
employees in context of the re-compete of the NG/VITA
outsourcing contract (which is far less catchy). Computers
have the potential to speed transit and reduce fatalities,
but that potential will not be permanently realized as long
as people are intent upon removing all human control and
intervention. Computers can be capable copilots under almost
all circumstances, but their owners cannot weather the
fallout from their inability to conceive a response on their
own when confronted with conditions that they were not
programmed for. Such dramatic consequences will eventually
raise a great furor, horror, deep sorrow, and extensive
liability concerns. Even if you could sue a computer it is
unlikely that they could demonstrate the means to pay.
Incarceration of a computer for criminal negligence seems a
bit ludicrous as well. The owner of the offending property
better have their insurance premiums all paid up, but what
then? Who will insure the next owner? Advocates of computer
driven cars are planning on no fault insurance being mandated
in each and every state. Good luck with that.
My wife works for Anthem although not in claims
processing. She used to work in membership which is also
automated. Software developers for health insurance mostly
use Agile methods. One facet of that is that they only expect
automation to handle roughly 90% (ideally more) of the
workload because they have learned that there will never be a
no defects computer system and they are saving expensive
labor time in development by allowing lower paid workers to
pick up a lot of the more complicated cases manually. That
reduces time spent in the iterative process of testing and
correcting defects. I am sure that you remember the problems
with the ACA's automated insurance membership market. Stuff
happens all the time in IT.
It is not that I had to work in IT for 47 years to
understand the limitations. Merely my childhood education on
the mathematical system of logic that underlies their
circuitry and programming would have been sufficient, but a
bit of empirical confirmation never hurts. Understanding
reality is unfortunately a pre-requisite, but once that is
accomplished then there are great opportunities to achieve
improved results. Computers are not the problem, but can
often be an essential part of the solution rather than a
faceless soulless panacea. Does not compute can happen
anywhere, but worse though when it happens at 75 MPH.
"They are a big
expense, and give no value-added."
You clearly buy in too free lunch economics!
Cut costs (of paying workers) to give everyone more stuff
and create more higher paying jobs!!!
By the way, Medicare employs as many people as insurers to
administer the benefits and provider payments. After all,
it's all outsourced to insurers who already do that work for
employers.
Do not assume that the 10% of insured individuals and
small groups with high sales and marketing cost represent the
costs of the 80% with very low sales and marketing costs,
handled by insurer backroom operations.
Your argument is like saying that nationalizing Apple
would cut food costs by 50% because Apple sales, marketing,
profits are 50% of Apple revenue and thus 50% of everything
is sales, marketing, profit.
Every serious study that looks at current costs in the
multipayer healthcare insurance concludes that moving to
single-payer will save 15-20% of total spending. Here is yet
another one:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4283267/
There is nothing about that paper that would not hold true or
even truer of a two tiered system of Medicare for all with
administrative processing collocated with the supplemental
insurer whenever there is one. Just do a work flow model and
note how many steps are cut out at each the provider and
insurer if primary and secondary coverage administrative
processing for membership, claims, and policy holder services
are collocated.
Ah, but Trump is both delusional and vengeful. He might wake
up one morning and decide that Republicans are enemies to be
destroyed. He has no interest in let alone understanding of
policy. He could take a position just out of spite. And if he
thought it would make people who weren't his enemies love him
then who knows. (Odds of him being struck by lightning are
probably comparable - low but not zero.)
Government Funds 60% of U.S. Healthcare Costs - Far Higher
than Previously Believed
"We Pay for National Health
Insurance but Don't Get It"
"Universal coverage is affordable - without a big tax
increase," continued Dr. Himmelstein. "Because taxes already
fund 60% of health care costs, a shift about the size of the
recent tax cut ($130 billion a year) from private funding to
public funding would allow us to cover all the uninsured and
improve benefits for everyone else. Insurers/HMOs and drug
companies buy-off our politicians with huge campaign
contributions and hordes of lobbyists."
Beyond the Affordable Care Act: A Physicians' Proposal for
Single-Payer Health Care Reform
During a transition period,
all public funds currently spent on health care – including
Medicare, Medicaid, and state and local health care programs
– would be redirected to the unified NHP budget. Such public
spending – together with tax subsidies for employer-paid
insurance and government expenditures for public workers'
health benefits – already accounts for 60% of total U.S.
health expenditures.28 Additional funds would be raised
through taxes, though importantly these would be fully offset
by a decrease in out-of-pocket spending and premiums.
Many employers now pay for employees' health insurance and
that employee compensation is tax-exempt.
If employers
health insurance comp were replaced by medicare for all,
employers could replace it with wages.
Employees could get health insurance from medicare instead
of from private plans. Thus instead of private health
insurance paid by employers (and partially by the government
via tax exemptions), medicare could pay it from the taxes the
government didn't use to collect.
Is Donald Trump still 'for single-payer' health care?
"Perry said Trump is "for single-payer health care."
Fifteen years ago, Trump was decidedly for a universal
healthcare system that resembled Canada's system, in which
the government pays for care for all citizens.
Recently, he's said he admires Scotland's single-payer
system and disses the Affordable Care Act as incompetently
implemented.
However, a Trump spokesman denied that the
candidate supported "socialized medicine" and suggested Trump
prefers a "free-market" solution. Other than that, though,
the Trump campaign has been silent about what his specific
health care policies are; perhaps Trump will be pressed on
this point during the Aug. 6 debate.
Given the current evidence, Perry's attack is partially
accurate, but leaves out details. We rate the statement Half
True.
Trump is actually apolitical - the only reason he right now
is Trumpeting hard right wing and neocon ideas is that he is
being feed them, and he got snookered into thinking they
would work for him. When he realize that crap is pulling his
reputation and popularity down the drain, he will be ready
for someone to offer him a lifeline.
Thank the Great Flying Spaghetti Monster for that!!!!
Everytime the centrist dems - or mainly GOPers - try to
sell out social insurance programs, the Freedom Caucus stands
in their way. As a progressive, I am deeply and profoundly
grateful!
/ snark
Reply Saturday, March 25, 2017 at 07:21 AM
My thoughts exactly. EMichael and PGL said it was the Wall
Street Democrats we had to worry about? What?
Tax reform will also crash and burn now. PGL has been all
worried whining for months without telling his readers that
there is a large business and conservative opposition to Paul
Ryan's reform.
The nature of dollar duopoly is implacably corrupt. Until we
change that system then we will have to make do with what we
got. It has largely been that way since the ink dried on the
US Constitution.
"The president...may consider changing course and working
across party lines to develop support for universal access to
Medicare." Would that this were possible; Trump doesn't care
nearly enough about the millions who would benefit to make
the slightest move in this direction.
The thing he cares about is his approval ratings and
popularity. He will soon enough recognize that supporting
issues that has support from 2/3 or more of the population is
the way to improve his popularity. If the democrats play it
right they can get a lot of their own priorities through with
his help. Remember how Bush II got a $ trillion MediCare
prescription drug benefit through a conservative congress
(and it is funded through the regular progressive tax
system). That was a democratic policy that could not have
been passed by a democratic President.
"If your
house is worth 500,000, a 3% return would mean charging
15,000 in rent per year, or 1,250 per month. Now, if you look
out at the market and find out that you could actually rent
your house out for 2,000 per month, you are making 750 in
economic profit. The price you can charge for your house,
2,000, is higher than the marginal cost to you, 1,250.
Profits!"
The idea that the difference in market value and PV rents
represents economic profits does not sit well with me, but I
can't exactly explain why. It seems more like speculative
profit. And the idea that the difference should
systematically persist, as seems to be the case in the
discussion, also does not sit well. The discussion implies,
after all, that rents, representing non-production, are
becoming increasingly large in aggregate. I know that we
subsidize the pyramid accumulation of rent streams, for no
good reason in my opinion, but if this is true it seems to
say there is another kind of hollowing out underway where
rents displace real return on investment. All this in the
context where renters, in general, cannot fund the sum of
housing, education, medical care and retirement
That calculation doesn't take into account the depreciation
of the property or the taxes and maintenance. A lot of people
who buy houses to rent them out use the rule of 100. If you
want to make good money on a rental property you have to be
able to get a rent of no less than 1% of your purchase price.
So a $100K property should rent out for $1000 per month.
Yes big time. He is considering the house an investment asset
with no cost (like a bond or stock). However, houses have all
kinds of cost and they also lose value for every year they
get older. An investment return of 3% is only "reasonable"
for basically risk free investments (government or government
guaranteed bonds) that have absolutely no cost associated
with owning them.
In a Call to The Times, Trump Blames Democrats for the
Failure of the Health Bill
https://nyti.ms/2nNPHD9
NYT - MAGGIE HABERMAN - MARCH 24, 2017
WASHINGTON - Just moments after the Republican plan to
repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act was declared dead,
President Trump sought to paint the defeat of his first
legislative effort as an early-term blip.
The House speaker, Paul D. Ryan, was preparing to tell the
public that the health care bill was being withdrawn - a
byproduct, Mr. Trump said, of Democratic partisanship. The
president predicted that Democrats would return to him to
make a deal in roughly a year.
"Look, we got no Democratic votes. We got none, zero," Mr.
Trump said in a telephone interview he initiated with The New
York Times.
"The good news is they now own health care. They now own
Obamacare."
Mr. Trump insisted that the Affordable Care Act would
collapse in the next year, which would then force Democrats
to come to the bargaining table for a new bill.
"The best thing that can happen is that we let the
Democrats, that we let Obamacare continue, they'll have
increases from 50 to 100 percent," he said. "And when it
explodes, they'll come to me to make a deal. And I'm open to
that."
Although enrollment in the Affordable Care Act declined
slightly in the past year, there is no sign that it is
collapsing. Its expansion of Medicaid continues to grow.
In a later phone interview with The Times, the Senate
minority leader, Chuck Schumer, ridiculed Mr. Trump's remarks
about Democrats being at fault.
"Whenever the president gets in trouble, he points fingers
of blame," Mr. Schumer said. "It's about time he stopped
doing that and started to lead. The Republicans were totally
committed to repeal from the get-go, never talked to us once.
But now that they realize that repeal can't work, if they
back off repeal, of course we'll work with them to make it
even better."
Mr. Trump said that "when they come to make a deal," he
would be open and receptive. He singled out the Tuesday Group
moderates for praise, calling them "terrific," an implicit
jab at the House Freedom Caucus, which his aides had
expressed frustration with during negotiations. ...
WASHINGTON - Donald Trump famously said that if he became
president he would win so much, Americans would get tired of
winning. But so far he's mostly losing, bigly.
Even with a wide Republican majority in the House, the
president failed to deliver on the centerpiece of his
legislative agenda - repealing the Affordable Care Act -
raising loud questions about the effectiveness of his young
presidency and whether Republicans are capable of making the
transition from an opposition party to one that governs.
"It's a catastrophic legislative failure," said Rick
Tyler, a Republican strategist who didn't support Trump
during the election. "It's the equivalent of having a cardiac
arrest. You can recover from it, but it will take a lot of
rehab."
He added: "Political experience is a hard teacher. You get
the test first and learn the lesson next."
Even former House speaker Newt Gingrich, a close Trump
ally, delivered a harsh verdict Friday. "Why would you
schedule a vote on a bill that is at 17 percent approval?" he
asked on his Twitter feed, referring to a Quinnipiac
University poll.
The tweet went viral, and in an interview Gingrich added:
"When I saw the numbers - that is everything I have opposed
in my entire career. That's how the Republicans lost the
majority."
Still, the defeat of Trump's first request of Congress
represents a further deterioration of his already shaky
credibility in Washington and among the American people.
He has cast himself as a master salesman and the "closer" who
can win over allies in the most difficult of circumstances
through some combination of his winning personality and
take-no-prisoners approach to negotiations.
But that picture of Trump is becoming about as
questionable as his unsubstantiated claims that he had huge
crowd sizes at his inauguration, his unproven accusations
that bus loads of Massachusetts voters cast illegal ballots
in New Hampshire, and his much rejected insistence that
then-President Obama put a wiretap on his phone.
The pattern, in the eyes of his harshest critics, is that
there's little evidence to back up his boasts.
He could not close this deal. Republican members of the
House of Representatives, who have voted to repeal the Obama
health law more than 50 times in the past seven years,
refused Trump's entreaties to support the Republican
replacement for the law.
The setback comes as other storm clouds are gathering over
the Trump presidency. There's the FBI investigation into
whether his campaign staff coordinated e-mail leaks designed
to influence the election, along with the Russians.
FBI director James Comey was spotted going in and out of
the West Wing on Friday, which was a reminder of the
investigation, even if the White House claimed Comey was
there for a routine meeting. ...
Speaking in the Oval Office Friday afternoon, President Trump
surveyed the wreckage of the Obamacare repeal effort and
issued a crisp, definitive verdict: I didn't do it.
The
president said he didn't blame Speaker Paul Ryan, though he
had plenty of implied criticism for the speaker. "I like
Speaker Ryan. He worked very hard," Trump said, but he added:
"I'm not going to speak badly about anybody within the
Republican Party. Certainly there's a big history. I really
think Paul worked hard." He added ruefully that the GOP could
have taken up tax-reform first, instead of Obamacare-the
reverse of Ryan's desired sequence. "Now we're going to go
for tax reform, which I've always liked," he said.
As for the House Freedom Caucus, the bloc of conservatives
from which many of the apparent "no" votes on the Republican
plan were to come, Trump said, "I'm not betrayed. They're
friends of mine. I'm disappointed because we could've had it.
So I'm disappointed. I'm a little surprised, I could tell
you."
The greatest blame for the bill's failure fell on
Democrats, Trump said.
"This really would've worked out better if we could've had
Democrat support. Remember we had no Democrat support," Trump
said. Later, he added, "But when you get no votes from the
other side, meaning the Democrats, it's really a difficult
situation."
He said Democrats should come up with their own bill. "I
think the losers are Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, because
they own Obamacare," he said, referring to the House and
Senate Democratic leaders. "They 100 percent own it."
Trump was very clear about who was not to blame: himself.
"I worked as a team player," the president of the United
States said, demoting himself to bit-player status. He wanted
to do tax reform first, after all, and it was still early.
"I've been in office, what, 64 days? I've never said repeal
and replace Obamacare within 64 days. I have a long time. I
want to have a great health-care bill and plan and we will."
Strictly speaking, it is true that Trump didn't promise to
repeal Obamacare on day 64 of his administration. What he
told voters, over and over during the campaign, was that he'd
do it immediately. On some occasions he or top allies even
promised to do it on day 1. Now he and his allies are
planning to drop the bill for the foreseeable future.
It is surely not wrong that there is lots of blame to go
around. Congressional Republicans had years to devise a plan,
and couldn't come up with one that would win a majority in
the House, despite a 44-seat advantage. The House bill was an
unpopular one, disliked by conservatives and moderates in
that chamber; almost certainly dead on arrival in the Senate;
and deeply unpopular with voters. Even before the vote was
canceled, unnamed White House officials were telling
reporters that the plan was to pin the blame on Ryan. ...
... Defeat on the floor dealt Trump a major blow early in
his presidency, but its implications were far more serious
for the Republican Party as a whole. Handed unified control
of the federal government for only the third time since World
War II, the modern GOP was unable to overcome its internecine
fights to enact a key part of its policy agenda. The
president now wants to move on to a comprehensive overhaul of
the tax code, but insiders on Capitol Hill have long believed
that project will be an even heavier lift than health care.
As the prospect of a loss became more real on Friday, the
frustrations of GOP lawmakers loyal to the leadership began
to boil over. "I've been in this job eight years, and I'm
wracking my brain to think of one thing our party has done
that's been something positive, that's been something other
than stopping something else from happening," Representative
Tom Rooney of Florida said in an interview. "We need to start
having victories as a party. And if we can't, then it's hard
to justify why we should be back here."
Nothing has exemplified the party's governing challenge
quite like health care. For years, Republican leaders
resisted pressure from Democrats and rank-and-file lawmakers
to coalesce around a detailed legislative alternative to
Obamacare. That failure didn't prevent them from attaining
power, but it forced them to start nearly from scratch after
Trump's surprising victory in November. At Ryan's urging, the
party had compiled a plan as part of the speaker's "A Better
Way" campaign agenda. Translating that into legislation,
however, proved a much stiffer challenge; committee leaders
needed to navigate a razor's edge to satisfy conservatives
demanding a full repeal of Obamacare and satisfy moderates
who preferred to keep in place its more popular consumer
protections and Medicaid expansion. They were further limited
by the procedural rules of the Senate, which circumscribed
how far Republicans could go while still avoiding a
Democratic filibuster. ...
It would appear that the 'Freedom Caucus', of
about 30 GOPsters in the House, was barely
enough to stop the AHCA because it 'wasn't
conservative enough', but the moderate
Tuesday Group of about 50 surely was,
because it was too 'conservative'.
But you need better free lunch economics to beat the free
lunch economics of conservatives, Republicans, Tea Party,
Freedom caucus, and Trump.
You need free lunch economics
that work and deliver something for nothing. The failure
Friday was free lunch economics hitting reality. Getting
government and insurance companies out of the lives of Trump
and Republican voters did not make these voters richer,
healthier, and freer.
Bernie has his own free lunch economics which will
likewise turn out to be ashes in the mouths of voters who
might get him into the White House, he wants to cut spending
based on "not paying workers will not make those workers
worse off". Exactly the same theory Reagan to Trump use.
Gutting costly regulations that require paying workers to
comply will not result in workers being worse off. Or
property owners.
Bernie campaigned on eliminating fossil fuels in a way
that his voters will be able to keep burning fossil fuels to
drive to his rallies and to heat their homes.
New Health Care Plan: Open Source Drugs, Immigrant
Doctors, and a Public Option
Now that the Republican health care plan has been sent to
the dust bin of history, it's worth thinking about how
Obamacare can be improved. While the Affordable Care Act was
a huge step forward in extending insurance coverage, many of
the complaints against the program are justified. The co-pays
and deductibles can mean the plans are of little use to
middle income people with relatively low bills.
This is a great time to put forward ideas for reducing
these costs and making other changes in the health care
system. Obviously this congress and president are not
interested in reforms that help low and middle income
families, but the rest of us can start pushing these ideas
now, with the expectation that the politicians will
eventually come around.
There are two obvious directions to go to get costs down
for low and middle income families. One is to increase taxes
on the wealthy. The other is to reduce the cost of health
care. The latter is likely the more promising option,
especially since we have such a vast amount of waste in our
system. The three obvious routes are lower prices for
prescription drugs and medical equipment, reducing the pay of
doctors, and savings on administrative costs from having
Medicare offer an insurance plan in the exchanges.
Taking these in turn, the largest single source of savings
would be reducing what we pay for prescription drugs. We will
spend over $440 billion this year for drugs that would likely
sell for less than $80 billion in a free market without
patent monopolies and other forms of protection. If we paid
as much as people in other wealthy countries for our drugs,
we would save close to $200 billion a year. We spend another
$50 billion a year on medical equipment which would likely
cost around $15 billion in a free market.
If the government negotiated prices for drugs and medical
equipment its savings could easily exceed $100 billion a year
(see "Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern
Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer" * ). It
could use some of these savings to finance open-source
research for new drugs and medical equipment.
We already fund a huge amount of research, so this is not
some radical departure from current practice. The government
spends more than $32 billion on research conducted by the
National Institutes of Health. It also picks up 50 percent of
the industry's research costs on orphan drugs through the
Orphan Drug Tax Credit. Orphan drugs are a rapidly growing
share of all drug approvals, as the industry increasingly
takes advantage of this tax credit.
The big change would not be that the government was
funding research, but rather the research results and patents
would be in the public domain, rather than be used by Pfizer
and other drug companies to get patent monopolies. As a
result, the next great breakthrough drug will sell as a
generic for a few hundred dollars rather than hundreds of
thousands of dollars. And MRI scans would cost little more
than X-rays.
The second big potential source of savings would come from
reducing the protectionist barriers which largely exclude
foreign-trained physicians. Under current law, a foreign
doctor is prohibited from practicing in the United States
unless they complete a U.S. residency program. This keeps
hundreds of thousands of well-qualified from physicians from
practicing in the United States. As a result, our doctors
earn on average more than $250,000 a year, roughly twice the
average pay in other wealthy countries. (There are similar
protectionist restrictions which inflate the pay of
dentists.)
If we removed this barrier and allowed qualified foreign
doctors to practice in the United States, we would likely get
their pay down to levels comparable to that of doctors in
countries like Canada and Germany. This could save us close
to $100 billion a year on our health care bill, at least half
of which would be savings to the government.
There is a concern that we would attract more doctors from
developing countries. We could easily offset this brain drain
by paying these countries enough so that they can train two
or three doctors for every one that comes to the United
States, thereby ensuring they gain from this arrangement as
well. It is worth noting that these countries receive zero
compensation now for the doctors they pay to train, but who
then practice in the United States.
The third big source of saving would be having Medicare
offer an insurance plan in the exchanges. This would ensure
both that everyone had at least one good option regardless of
where they lived and also that the private insurers in the
system would face real competition. In 2010, the
Congressional Budget Office projected that a public option
would save the government $23 billion a year by 2020 and $29
billion by 2023.
The total savings to the government from these three
changes easily exceed $150 billion a year, in addition to
large savings that individuals outside the exchanges would
see in their health care expenses. This is far more than
enough to make the deductibles zero for each of the roughly
10 million people now in the exchanges. That would make
Obamacare considerably more attractive.
Of course if the plans in the exchanges became more
generous more people would opt to take advantage of them and
we would see people leaving employer-provided plans. That is
a problem that we can deal with at the time it happens. (We
would need to have a portion of workers' current payments for
employer provided plans go to the government to cover the
cost of additional enrollees in the exchanges.) But the way
forward in improving Obamacare is to use the market to make
our health care system more efficient and reduce the
ridiculous rents that now go to the wealthy as a result of
waste in the system.
Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern
Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer
By Dean Baker
The Old Technology and Inequality Scam: The Story of
Patents and Copyrights
One of the amazing lines often repeated by people in
policy debates is that, as a result of technology, we are
seeing income redistributed from people who work for a living
to the people who own the technology. While the
redistribution part of the story may be mostly true, the
problem is that the technology does not determine who "owns"
the technology. The people who write the laws determine who
owns the technology.
Specifically, patents and copyrights give their holders
monopolies on technology or creative work for their duration.
If we are concerned that money is going from ordinary workers
to people who hold patents and copyrights, then one policy we
may want to consider is shortening and weakening these
monopolies. But policy has gone sharply in the opposite
direction over the last four decades, as a wide variety of
measures have been put into law that make these protections
longer and stronger. Thus, the redistribution from people who
work to people who own the technology should not be
surprising - that was the purpose of the policy.
If stronger rules on patents and copyrights produced
economic dividends in the form of more innovation and more
creative output, then this upward redistribution might be
justified. But the evidence doesn't indicate there has been
any noticeable growth dividend associated with this upward
redistribution. In fact, stronger patent protection seems to
be associated with slower growth.
Before directly considering the case, it is worth thinking
for a minute about what the world might look like if we had
alternative mechanisms to patents and copyrights, so that the
items now subject to these monopolies could be sold in a free
market just like paper cups and shovels.
The biggest impact would be in prescription drugs. The
breakthrough drugs for cancer, hepatitis C, and other
diseases, which now sell for tens or hundreds of thousands of
dollars annually, would instead sell for a few hundred
dollars. No one would have to struggle to get their insurer
to pay for drugs or scrape together the money from friends
and family. Almost every drug would be well within an
affordable price range for a middle-class family, and
covering the cost for poorer families could be easily managed
by governments and aid agencies.
The same would be the case with various medical tests and
treatments. Doctors would not have to struggle with a
decision about whether to prescribe an expensive scan, which
might be the best way to detect a cancerous growth or other
health issue, or to rely on cheaper but less reliable
technology. In the absence of patent protection even the most
cutting edge scans would be reasonably priced.
Health care is not the only area that would be transformed
by a free market in technology and creative work. Imagine
that all the textbooks needed by college students could be
downloaded at no cost over the web and printed out for the
price of the paper. Suppose that a vast amount of new books,
recorded music, and movies was freely available on the web.
People or companies who create and innovate deserve to be
compensated, but there is little reason to believe that the
current system of patent and copyright monopolies is the best
way to support their work. It's not surprising that the
people who benefit from the current system are reluctant to
have the efficiency of patents and copyrights become a topic
for public debate, but those who are serious about inequality
have no choice. These forms of property claims have been
important drivers of inequality in the last four decades.
The explicit assumption behind the steps over the last
four decades to increase the strength and duration of patent
and copyright protection is that the higher prices resulting
from increased protection will be more than offset by an
increased incentive for innovation and creative work. Patent
and copyright protection should be understood as being like
very large tariffs. These protections can often the raise the
price of protected items by several multiples of the free
market price, making them comparable to tariffs of several
hundred or even several thousand percent. The resulting
economic distortions are comparable to what they would be if
we imposed tariffs of this magnitude.
The justification for granting these monopoly protections
is that the increased innovation and creative work that is
produced as a result of these incentives exceeds the economic
costs from patent and copyright monopolies. However, there is
remarkably little evidence to support this assumption. While
the cost of patent and copyright protection in higher prices
is apparent, even if not well-measured, there is little
evidence of a substantial payoff in the form of a more rapid
pace of innovation or more and better creative work....
Medicare for all is a great idea but still well out of
political reach for a while. On the other hand, cheaper drugs
is a goal even trumpers could support with the right sales
pitch.
I generally love most of what Dean Baker does. But his
weaknesses are on display in this piece. Just enough insights
to sound convincing, but not enough to be the real McCoy. Yes
we pay our medical doctors a lot more than France. However,
ours first come out of undergraduate training having paid
over $200K for that, then add another $300K for medical
school. So that is a cool $500K in debt that their French
counterparts don't have to deal with. Next (and before they
can se any patients are internships (3 years) where they are
not paid enough to begin paying down the student debt,
followed by another 2-5 years of specialty training again
with a compensation that cover living but not paying down the
debt. Finally after becoming specialists (and those who don't
are not paid $250K per year), they can begin paying down that
student debt which in the meantime has grown substantially
(with its private market interest rates).
If you were to put all those foreigners with their free
education in direct competition with the domestic crop there
would be no US born doctors. But that would be the least of
the problems. American medical schools are for the most part
outstanding and even the least of those graduating are quite
good. That cannot be said for many of the other places in the
world where we get most of our foreign trained doctors. There
is a very good reason we demand that foreigners go through a
US residency program before they can practice medicine.
Regardless of what their (real or fake) papers say about
their education, they have to perform up to US standards to
pass the US residency programs and be licensed – and that is
a good thing.
What Comes Next for Obamacare? The Case for Medicare for
All
By ROBERT H. FRANK
Republicans are in a bind. They've been promising to
repeal Obamacare for seven years, and having won control of
the White House and Congress, they had to try to deliver. But
while their bitter denunciations of the Affordable Care Act
may have depressed its approval numbers, they didn't make
replacing it any easier.
On the contrary, the repeal-and-replace bill designed by
House Speaker Paul D. Ryan drew withering criticism from the
left and the right. Liberals condemned its use of reductions
in health coverage for the poor to pay for large tax cuts for
the wealthy, while conservatives bemoaned its retention of
many subsidies adopted under Obamacare.
In the end, the repeal effort's biggest hurdle may have
been loss aversion, one of the most robust findings in
behavioral science. As numerous studies have shown, the pain
of losing something you already have is much greater than the
pleasure of having gained it in the first place. And the
nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that Mr.
Ryan's American Health Care Act (A.H.C.A.) would have caused
more than 14 million people to lose coverage in the first
year alone, with total losses rising to 24 million over the
next decade. Many Republicans in Congress were nervous about
the political firestorm already provoked by the mere prospect
of such losses.
Loss aversion actually threatened the repeal effort on two
fronts: voters' fear of losing their coverage, and lawmakers'
fear of losing their seats. Like the first fear, the second
appeared well grounded. Republican voters wouldn't have been
the only ones losing coverage, of course, but early studies
suggested that losses would have been concentrated among
people who voted for President Trump. The Congressional
Budget Office estimated, for example, that the A.H.C.A. would
have caused premiums to rise more than sevenfold in 2026 for
64-year-olds making $26,500.
Now that Republicans have withdrawn Mr. Ryan's bill from
consideration, attention shifts to what comes next. In an
earlier column, I suggested that Mr. Trump has the political
leverage, which President Obama did not, to jettison the
traditional Republican approach in favor of a form of the
single-payer health care that most other countries use.
According to Physicians for a National Health Program, an
advocacy group, "Single-payer national health insurance, also
known as 'Medicare for all,' is a system in which a single
public or quasi-public agency organizes health care
financing, but the delivery of care remains largely in
private hands." Christopher Ruddy, a friend and adviser of
the president, recently urged him to consider this option.
Many Republicans who want to diminish government's role in
health care view the single-payer approach with disdain. But
Mr. Trump often seems to take pleasure in being
unpredictable, and since he will offend people no matter
which way he turns, he may want to consider why liberals and
conservatives in many other countries have embraced the
single-payer approach.
Part of the appeal of Medicare for all is that
single-payer systems reduce financial incentives that
generate waste and abuse. Mr. Ryan insisted that by
relegating health care to private insurers, competition would
lead to lower prices and higher quality. Economic theory
tells us that this is a reasonable expectation when certain
conditions are met. A crucial one is that buyers must be able
to compare the quality of offerings of different sellers. In
practice, however, people have little knowledge of the
treatment options for the various maladies they might suffer,
and policy language describing insurance coverage is
notoriously complex and technical. Consumers simply cannot
make informed quality comparisons in this industry.
In contrast, they can easily compare the prices charged by
competing insurance companies. This asymmetry induces
companies to compete by highlighting the lower prices they're
able to offer if they cut costs by degrading the quality of
their offerings. For example, it's common for insurance
companies to deny payment for procedures that their policies
seem to cover. If policy holders complain loudly enough, they
may eventually get reimbursed, but the money companies save
by not paying others confers a decisive competitive advantage
over rivals that don't employ this tactic. Such haggling is
uncommon under single-payer systems like Medicare (though it
is sometimes employed by private insurers that supplement
Medicare).
Consider, too, the mutually offsetting expenditures on
competitive advertising and other promotional efforts of
private insurers, which can exceed 15 percent of total
revenue. Single-payer plans like Medicare spend nothing on
competitive advertising (although here, also, we see such
expenditures by supplemental insurers).
According to the Kaiser Family Foundation, administrative
costs in Medicare are only about 2 percent of total operating
expenditures, less than one-sixth of the rate estimated for
the private insurance industry. This difference does not mean
that private insurers are evil. It's a simple consequence of
a difference in the relevant economic incentives.
American health care outlays per capita in 2015 were more
than twice the average of those in the 35 advanced countries
that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development. Yet despite that spending difference, the system
in the United States delivers significantly less favorable
outcomes on measures like longevity and the incidence of
chronic illness....
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Health Data
Total health care spending per person, 2015 *
United States ( 9451)
OCED average ( 3814)
France ( 4407)
Total health care spending as a share of GDP, 2015
United States ( 16.9)
OCED average ( 9.0)
France ( 11.0)
Pharmaceutical expenditure per person, 2014 *
United States ( 1112)
OECD average ( 538)
France ( 656)
Practising physicians per 1,000 population, 2014
United States ( 2.6)
OECD average ( 3.3)
France ( 3.3)
Practising nurses per 1,000 population, 2014
United States ( 11.2)
OECD average ( 8.9)
France ( 9.6)
Physician consultations per person, 2014
United States ( 4.0)
OECD average ( 6.8)
France ( 6.3)
Medical graduates per 100,000 population, 2014
United States ( 7.3)
OECD average ( 11.4)
France ( 10.0)
* Data are expressed in US dollars adjusted for purchasing
power parities (PPPs), which provide a means of comparing
spending between countries on a common base. PPPs are the
rates of currency conversion that equalise the cost of a
given "basket" of goods and services in different countries.
Peter K. -> anne...
, -1
As Bernie Sanders says play offense, not just defense. Then
the voters will respect you.
It would be funny if Trump
goes for round two health care reform and wins bigly with
Democrats' help.
David Frum, the excommunicated conservative wrote in 2010:
""The real leaders are on TV and radio"
Bernie Sanders is
the Dems TV leader.
Simple ideas repeated endlessly, easy to memorize slogans
Knows how to manipulate emotions
In the Twitter Age, this is how all successful politicians
must message
Simple
slogans repeated often isn't a new approach to politics. It
goes back well over a century. "Keep it simple and take
credit." Liberals haven't been very good at that in recent
decades. (In contrast, FDR was.) Most people aren't wonks nor
do they desire to become one. Messaging which presumes that
they are or do is not a recipe for success.
Sanders has not "destroyed" the old Democratic Party.
He is a better TV messenger and ambassador to the public
He plays the Paternalistic Grandfather who does not trigger
culture shock among white voters on TV
More like the cranky uncle, whom you had better listen to.
Bernie Sanders is currently the most popular politician in
the United States, by a long shot:
Sanders won New Hampshire, Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma,
Vermont, Kansas, Nebraska, Maine, Michigan, Idaho, Utah,
Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Rhode Island,
Indiana, West Virginia, Oregon, Montana, North Dakota.
*and
he was close in many states like losing Massachusetts 606k to
589k. And the entire second half of the primary the DNC was
repeating how Hillary had won mathematically over and over
even though people hadn't voted.
"Sanders has not "destroyed" the old Democratic Party"
No
he is not stupid. What he has done is moving the Overton
window - something that was long overdue. There is definitely
an opening to make ObamaCare the first step towards MediCare
for all (as it always was intended by by all but the
bluedogs). But as good as Sanders is at message and getting
the crowds going, he is going to need help with the
politicking to actually get it done.
I will take your word for it. We don't watch either CNN nor
Fox News at my house. Mostly we watch local (same news and
weather crew here appears on each the WWBT/WRLH local NBC/Fox
affiliates) news with some sampling of MSNBC and Sunday
morning ABC and CBS shows along with the daily half hour of
NBC network following the evening local. Cable news is sort
of an oxymoron given the prevailing editorial slants. The now
retired local TV news anchor Gene Cox laid the groundwork for
the best news team in central VA by setting a high bar at his
station. Gene laid it all out southern fried with satirical
humor and honesty unusual in TV news.
Apparently we have two jokes alternating to lead America: the
Republican jokes vs. the Democratic jokes.
Democrats are a
joke for rallying their elite around a candidate who had huge
negatives and for trying to block more popular candidates
from running.
Democrats are a joke for having to rig the primaries in
favor of a candidate who had already lost in 2008.
Democrats are a joke for refusing to sack a sclerotic,
corrupt, and inept congressional leadership that had lost
three straight elections.
Democrats are a joke for refusing to seize the issue that
had propelled two Democrats into office--it's the economy,
stupid!
Democrats are a joke for pigheadedly refusing to do a post
mortem of their failure and insisting on blaming Putin
instead!
But Democrats are right to expect that, when two jokes vie
for power, their turn as joke in power will eventually come.
JohnH -> mulp...
, -1
Maybe a post mortem would simply reveal that Democrats should
have had a coherent economic message and pursued a strategy
of standing up for working America for the past 8 years. For
example, having Pelosi demand votes on increasing the minimum
wage as often as Ryan demanded votes on killing Obamacare...
Any honest post mortem would have revealed that standing with
billionaires and the Wall Street banking cartel--and not
prosecuting a single Wall Street banker--is not a winning
strategy...
"... Ugh what an awful display of pop economism. Globalization and technology are "impersonal forces." No mention of the rise of inequality or the SecStags. No mention of monetary policy fail in Europe. The biggest lies of economism are the lies of omission. ..."
"... Looks like this concept of "Economism" introduced by James Kwak in his book Economism is very important conceptual tool for understanding the tremendous effectiveness of neoliberal propaganda. ..."
"... When competitive free markets and rational well-informed actors are the baseline assumption, the burden of proof shifts unfairly onto anyone proposing a government policy. ..."
"... For example, the basic Econ 101 theory of supply and demand is fine for some products, but it doesn't work very well for labor markets. It is incapable of simultaneously explaining both the small effect of minimum wage increases and the small impact of low-skilled immigration. Some more complicated, advanced theory is called for. ..."
"... But no matter how much evidence piles up, people keep talking about "the labor supply curve" and "the labor demand curve" as if these are real objects, and to analyze policies -- for example, overtime rules -- using the same old framework. ..."
"... An idea that we believe in despite all evidence to the contrary isn't a scientific theory -- it's an infectious meme. ..."
"... Academic economists are unsure about how to respond to the abuse of simplistic econ theories for political ends. On one hand, it gives them enormous prestige. The popularity of simplistic econ ideas has made economists the toast of America's intellectual classes. ..."
"... It has sustained enormous demand for the undergraduate econ major, which serves, in the words of writer Michael Lewis, as a "standardized test of general intelligence" for future businesspeople. But as Kwak points out, the simple theories promulgated by politicians and on the Wall Street Journal editorial page often bear little resemblance to the sophisticated theories used by real economists. ..."
"... And when things go wrong -- when the financial system crashes, or millions of workers displaced by Chinese imports fail to find new careers -- it's academic economists who often get blamed, not the blasé and misleading popularizers. ..."
"So I wonder if economism was really as unrealistic and useless as Kwak seems to imply.
Did countries that resisted economism -- Japan, for example, or France [Germany?] -- do better
for their poor and middle classes than the U.S.? Wages have stagnated in those countries, and
inequality has increased, even as those countries remain poorer than the U.S. Did the U.S.'s
problems really all come from economism, or did forces such as globalization and technological
change play a part? Cross-country comparisons suggest that the deregulation and tax cuts of
the 1980s and 1990s, although ultimately excessive, probably increased economic output somewhat."
Ugh what an awful display of pop economism. Globalization and technology are "impersonal forces."
No mention of the rise of inequality or the SecStags. No mention of monetary policy fail in Europe.
The biggest lies of economism are the lies of omission.
libezkova -> Peter K.... , -1
Thank you --
Looks like this concept of "Economism" introduced by James Kwak in his book Economism is
very important conceptual tool for understanding the tremendous effectiveness of neoliberal propaganda.
I think it is proper to view Economism as a flavor of Lysenkoism. As such it is not very effective
in acquiring the dominant position and suppressing of dissent, but it also can be very damaging.
...When competitive free markets and rational well-informed actors are the baseline assumption,
the burden of proof shifts unfairly onto anyone proposing a government policy. For far too
many years, free-marketers have gotten away with winning debates by just sitting back and saying
"Oh yeah? Show me the market failure!" That deck-stacking has long forced public intellectuals
on the left have to work twice as hard as those safely ensconced in think tanks on the free-market
right, and given the latter a louder voice in public life than their ideas warrant.
It's also true that simple theories, especially those we learn in our formative years, can
maintain an almost unshakeable grip on our thinking.
For example, the basic Econ 101 theory of supply and demand is fine for some products,
but it doesn't work very well for labor markets. It is incapable of simultaneously explaining
both the small effect of minimum wage increases and the small impact of low-skilled immigration.
Some more complicated, advanced theory is called for.
But no matter how much evidence piles up, people keep talking about "the labor supply curve"
and "the labor demand curve" as if these are real objects, and to analyze policies -- for example,
overtime rules -- using the same old framework.
An idea that we believe in despite all evidence to the contrary isn't a scientific theory
-- it's an infectious meme.
Academic economists are unsure about how to respond to the abuse of simplistic econ theories
for political ends. On one hand, it gives them enormous prestige. The popularity of simplistic
econ ideas has made economists the toast of America's intellectual classes.
It has sustained enormous demand for the undergraduate econ major, which serves, in the
words of writer Michael Lewis, as a "standardized test of general intelligence" for future businesspeople.
But as Kwak points out, the simple theories promulgated by politicians and on the Wall Street
Journal editorial page often bear little resemblance to the sophisticated theories used by real
economists.
And when things go wrong -- when the financial system crashes, or millions of workers displaced
by Chinese imports fail to find new careers -- it's academic economists who often get blamed,
not the blasé and misleading popularizers.
... ... ...
Russia and China have given up communism not because they stopped having working classes, but
because it became obvious that their communist systems were keeping them in poverty. And Americans
are now starting to question economism because of declining median income, spiraling inequality
and a huge financial and economic crisis.
"... Neoliberalism, which is essentially simplified pseudo-economics in action, is finally beginning to break down, but rather than yielding to a more rational politics it is giving us Brexit, Trump and similar delusionary movements. Required to choose between the stale cant of economism and authoritarian fairytales of denial, the public is opting for the second door. Unless economism is disposed of quickly, there won't be an opening for a more enlightened third option. ..."
"... The critical deconstructive move follows, in which Kwak surveys the empirical literature, showing that, in real economics, the conventional assumptions are either flat out wrong or at least seriously qualified. He then concludes by explaining the policy implications of a more informed approach. It gets to be a bit formulaic, but it is effective and easy to follow. ..."
"... I can imagine using a book like this in an introductory microeconomics class. (Except for a bit of macro here and there, the book's focus is micro.) It's exactly the right antidote for the tendency of introductory textbooks to oversell markets and undersupply critical thinking. I hope lots of faculty teaching Econ 101 adopt it. ..."
"... He would do well to distinguish between the normative and positive aspects of economism. In a policy context, both are usually entailed: the positive view that this is how the world works is given political salience by the normative view that demand curves represent "benefits" to society and the supply curve "costs". It's important to recognize that economism can fail on either account: either empirical work can show that this is not how the world works, or the assumptions about how markets represent social interests can be challenged, or both. ..."
"... the full-dress neoclassical trade model (Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson, although he doesn't identify it as such) recognizes losers as well as winners from trade liberalization and makes this the conceptual linchpin of his critique of economism in this area. ..."
"... the impacts of trade liberalization on employment may be worse than this, since the proposition that the trade balance is unaffected by changes in the degree of openness requires adjustments in exchange rates that, at the very least, are empirically unreliable. ..."
"... In practice it's entirely possible, likely even, that a major liberalization event like the US opening to trade with China at the time of its WTO accession has an effect on the aggregate trade balance and not just the composition of industries on each side of the ledger. I shouldn't make a big deal of this, because Kwak is no doubt eager to avoid criticism that he is unknowledgeable about economics, and most economists would regard my criticism as falling under that shadow-but I don't think I'm wrong about this. ..."
"... Economism is wrong about how labor markets work, how health care works, how international trade works and so on, not because money doesn't buy you love, but because its analysis is wrong . If we're looking for a common message that applies to all these topics and pokes a hole in the economistic world view, wouldn't we look for common elements in the arguments we've already made? ..."
"... At its best, Economism is feisty. It challenges sloppy thinking about how the economic system works and makes the case for progressive policies that would result in greater income equality and access to economic goods. Excellent! ..."
"... The unifying progressive message is not that economics doesn't matter so much; it's that the economics of knee-jerk libertarianism is doctrinaire, false and self-serving. Our message is that we reject the ideology of universal unlimited acquisitiveness as a reasonable way of organizing human affairs, and that the evidence is on our side. I'd love to see a hard-hitting conclusion replace the flabby one that's currently there. ..."
There's economics, a field that has been renewing itself, shaking off theoretical rigidities through
more attention to behavior and institutions and shifting its center of gravity toward empirical observation
and testing. And then there's economics as it exists in standard political discourse, seeing
the whole world as refracted through supply and demand diagrams where markets are always efficient
and outcomes always socially optimal. This second, dumbed down, knee-jerk libertarian creed
is the object of James Kwak's new book,
Economism
.
If ever a book arrived to fill a need, this one has. Neoliberalism, which
is essentially simplified pseudo-economics in action, is finally beginning to break down, but rather
than yielding to a more rational politics it is giving us Brexit, Trump and similar delusionary
movements. Required to choose between the stale cant of economism and authoritarian fairytales
of denial, the public is opting for the second door. Unless economism is disposed of quickly,
there won't be an opening for a more enlightened third option.
In many ways, Kwak is an ideal person to take on the job. He's very, very smart. He
generally knows his economics, but he's not in thrall to the profession. (He's actually a law
professor.) He writes clearly and explains economic concepts with a minimum of lecture-itis.
His book is short and to the point.
Most chapters follow the same general template. Kwak begins by laying out an area of policy
and briefly explaining why it's important; topics include income distribution, taxes, health care,
finance and trade. He then goes into a thorough exposition of the standard economistic analysis,
usually based on casual assumptions concerning rational choice, competition, and the market as a
cost-benefit device. His next step is to show this conceptual framework in action, as mouthed
by politicians and journalists. The critical deconstructive move follows, in which Kwak surveys
the empirical literature, showing that, in real economics, the conventional assumptions are either
flat out wrong or at least seriously qualified. He then concludes by explaining the policy
implications of a more informed approach. It gets to be a bit formulaic, but it is effective
and easy to follow.
I can imagine using a book like this in an introductory microeconomics class. (Except for
a bit of macro here and there, the book's focus is micro.) It's exactly the right antidote
for the tendency of introductory textbooks to oversell markets and undersupply critical thinking.
I hope lots of faculty teaching Econ 101 adopt it.
That said, I think it could have been even better than it is. In a future second edition-and
I expect there will be one-Kwak should consider these improvements:
1. His adoption of the voice of economism is
very
extended. He will go on for several
pages presenting the economistic worldview as if it were his. Yes, I know, academics like Kwak,
myself and perhaps you are trained to cope with this. It's nothing for us to read a book in
which the author takes on the personna of someone with a differnt point of view for many pages at
a time. Most general readers are not familiar with this, however. I can say from personal
experience that something like half my students would come away thinking that Kwak himself espouses
economism and is contradicting himself when he criticizes it. What to do about this?
Of course, it's important for Kwak to present economism in a neutral, even sympathetic voice, and
to do so at the length it requires. Perhaps he considered adding, every paragraph or so, a
qualifier like "from this point of view", but decided it was too clunky. In that case, an altered
typeface, like italics, could have been used to set off his temporarily assumed voice as expositor
of economism. One way or the other, markers are needed for readers unused to academic protocols.
2. He would do well to distinguish between the normative and positive aspects of economism.
In a policy context, both are usually entailed: the positive view that
this is how the world works
is given political salience by the normative view that demand curves represent "benefits" to society
and the supply curve "costs". It's important to recognize that economism can fail on either
account: either empirical work can show that this is
not
how the world works, or the assumptions
about how markets represent social interests can be challenged, or both. In practice, Kwak
relies more on the first critique, and the book usefully draws together key empirical findings on
topics like minimum wages, health costs, etc. But the market failure framework could have been
given more of a workout than it received; in practice these arguments are effective.
3. The chapter on international trade is timid. Kwak points out that the full-dress neoclassical
trade model (Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson, although he doesn't identify it as such) recognizes losers
as well as winners from trade liberalization and makes this the conceptual linchpin of his critique
of economism in this area. In this he has a lot of company; H-O-S with lots of friction has
become the standard progressive position. However, the impacts of trade liberalization on employment
may be worse than this, since the proposition that the trade balance is unaffected by changes in
the degree of openness requires adjustments in exchange rates that, at the very least, are empirically
unreliable. (
All
exchange rate adjustments in response to anything are empirically unreliable.)
In practice it's entirely possible, likely even, that a major liberalization event like the US opening
to trade with China at the time of its WTO accession has an effect on the aggregate trade balance
and not just the composition of industries on each side of the ledger. I shouldn't make a big
deal of this, because Kwak is no doubt eager to avoid criticism that he is unknowledgeable about
economics, and most economists would regard my criticism as falling under that shadow-but I don't
think I'm wrong about this.
4. The very end of the book-the final four pages-are simply weak. To wrap up, Kwak points
out that, whatever its faults, economism delivers by having a simple, all-purpose, easy-to-grasp
message and then asks, "What's our message?" His answer is that wealthy economies don't need
economic growth or even economic efficiency as they used to, and we should all turn away from economic
concerns and embrace happiness instead. Huh? Now, before I launch into a critique of
this view, I should make it clear that I agree with a lot of it on matters of substance: economic
values, like income, are not the same as human values. One can live well on less money, and
the pursuit of wealth should not be the primary goal either for individuals or societies. Yes,
of course. But that doesn't mean that "downplay money" is the logical message to set against
economism.
One obvious reason is that the difference between wealth and happiness played no role whatsoever
in the chapters that led up to his conclusion. Economism is wrong about how labor markets work,
how health care works, how international trade works and so on, not because money doesn't buy you
love, but because its analysis is
wrong
. If we're looking for a common message that
applies to all these topics and pokes a hole in the economistic world view, wouldn't we look for
common elements in the arguments we've already made? It's always a mistake in a piece of
writing to go off in a new direction at the point where we should be summing up; this should have
occurred to Kwak or been pointed out to him by his reviewers.
The other reason is that downplaying economics-saying that income and other economic measures
don't mean so much-violates the spirit of the book. At its best,
Economism
is feisty.
It challenges sloppy thinking about how the economic system works and makes the case for progressive
policies that would result in greater income equality and access to economic goods. Excellent!
Why at the end turn around and say, in effect, OK, we'll give the conservatives economics, and we'll
take happiness instead? No! Don't give them that! They don't deserve it!
The unifying progressive message is
not
that economics doesn't matter so much; it's that the
economics of knee-jerk libertarianism is doctrinaire, false and self-serving. Our message is
that we reject the ideology of universal unlimited acquisitiveness as a reasonable way of organizing
human affairs, and that the evidence is on our side. I'd love to see a hard-hitting conclusion
replace the flabby one that's currently there.
It's in the nature of a review like this to dwell on the negative, but I don't want you to be
dissuaded from buying and reading this book.
Economism
is an important work of popular
education that needed to be written. Kwak has the skills to do it well-even better than he
has this time out.
I have not read Kwak's book, though
I have read the chapter on minimum
wage policy republished in the
Atlantic in January. My comment
reflects on your review and that
Atlantic article.
Kwak is trying
to do a very difficult thing in
attacking "economism", the glib
libertarian ideology derived from
neoclassical economics, and he
does not seem to grasp just how
difficult or why it is so difficult.
The Amazon page explains, "
Economism:
an ideology that distorts the valid
principles and tools of introductory
college economics, propagated by
self-styled experts, zealous lobbyists,
clueless politicians, and ignorant
pundits." This is the basic rhetorical
stance of the book: that the economics
of Econ 101 has validity and economism
is some distorted, illegitimate
simplification. This rhetorical
template will get reiterated as
the notion that the actual economy
is messy and complicated and economism
is wrong because it is oversimplified
(to serve interests).
On the minimum wage, Kwak concedes
"The supply-and-demand diagram
is a good conceptual starting point
for thinking about the minimum
wage. But on its own, it has limited
predictive value in the much more
complex real world."
and then
presents sophisticated economics
as "it's complicated".
"In short,
whether the minimum wage should
be increased (or eliminated) is
a complicated question. The economic
research is difficult to parse,
and arguments often turn on sophisticated
econometric details. Any change
in the minimum wage would have
different effects on different
groups of people, and should also
be compared with other policies
. . . "
This is a hopelessly weak rhetorical
position, because it depends on
conceding -- indeed, confirming
-- the validity of neoclassical
economics, which still outlines
introductory college economics
textbooks. Economism is a fair
distillation of neoclassical economics
and, like it or not, mainstream
economics nurtures neoclassical
economics and demands commitment
to the neoclassical framework.
Even if the mainstream permits
many other ideas to float around
academia, neoclassical economics
is the framework of indoctrination.
I do not think it is possible
to win the argument against economism,
if you are not willing to reject
neoclassical economics wholesale.
Neoclassical economics is the father
and mother of economism, and neoclassical
economics is wrong, fundamentally
wrong, in a scientific (aka epistemological)
sense. The world is not essentially
or fundamentally as neoclassical
economics says, which is provable
logically and empirically; you
can only sustain neoclassical economics
as an academic doctrine by suppressing
critical thinking (which economics
pedagogy insists upon). We do not
live in an economic system organized
primarily by markets tending toward
general equilibrium; the actual
economy is organized primarily
by bureaucracy and driven by disequilibrium
dynamics. Most prices are not formed
by competitive bidding; prices
are administratively determined
and managed. And so on.
The supply-and-demand diagram is
NOT
a good conceptual starting
point for thinking about the minimum
wage, and Kwak should never have
conceded as much. There's no labor
market. Most employers offer low-wage
workers take-it-leave-it terms,
constrained only by the rules and
bureaucracy of state and Federal
labor regulations, one of which,
of course, is the statutory minimum
wage. (Millions work for less than
the minimum wage by the way --
as the Bureau of Labor Statistics
regularly attests.) And, when people
go to work, they are managed and
supervised in systems that determine
how productive they are; if they
are paid their "marginal product"
in some abstract sense, it is because
their managers make it so. They
work in bureaucracies controlling
production and distribution processes
by administrative and technological
means, and the terms of their employment
reflects this role as controller
and controlled: they are paid a
more or less fixed wage, subject
to being fired. The threat of being
fired is key to the willingness
of employees to follow managerial
direction.
Neoclassical economics does
not admit economic hierarchy as
central to the organization of
the economy. But, when you reject
neoclassical economics, you do
not exclude all that might be relevant
from mainstream economics. Indeed,
economists have had many useful
insights into "efficiency wages"
and the relation of principals
to their agents.
Useful and sophisticated ideas
are still available after rejecting
neoclassical economics, but I am
not sure reputable economists are.
I do not think Kwak would find
his book jacket blurbed by quite
such luminary figures, if he had
rejected neoclassical economics
as one big lie (which it is). He
would have been in a stronger logical
and rhetorical position to reject
economism, but he might have lacked
reputable allies. That's what makes
the rejection of economism so difficult.
Economism is the ideology of
right neoliberalism, but the neoliberal
right is locked into a symbiotic
relationship with left neoliberalism.
Paul Krugman, Brad DeLong, John
Quiggin, Noah Smith, Jared Bernstein
-- these people seem to be opposed
to economism, but they depend upon
the legitimacy of neoclassical
economics and the mainstream economics
establishment too much to allow
a winning argument premised on
a rejection of the mother lode
of economism, neoclassical economics.
It is an old story of "with
friends like these who needs enemies".
Economics is a thoroughly corrupt
profession and all neoclassical
economists are some mix of fraud
and fool. We might like the fools
better, but they are not that much
help against the frauds. As Peter
Dorman says, "Kwak is no doubt
eager to avoid criticism that he
is unknowledgeable about economics",
but I suspect his eagerness to
avoid such criticism is focused
more on the sociological factor
that mainstream economics nurtures
neoclassical economics than on
actual knowledge of economics qua
knowledge of the economy. And,
that's the core problem.
"the neoliberal right is locked
into a symbiotic relationship with
left neoliberalism"
I would have
phrased it the other way round.
It seems to me the neoliberal right
would be content without the left
but the neoliberal left desperately
needs
the neoliberal right
for legitimization in its relentless
crusade against the heterodox infidels
-- the right is what makes Krugman,
DeLong et al. "the lefter of two
neoliberalisms."
"In practice it's entirely possible,
likely even, that a major liberalization
event like the US opening to trade
with China at the time of its WTO
accession has an effect on the
aggregate trade balance and not
just the composition of industries
on each side of the ledger. I shouldn't
make a big deal of this, because
Kwak is no doubt eager to avoid
criticism that he is unknowledgeable
about economics, and most economists
would regard my criticism as falling
under that shadow-but I don't think
I'm wrong about this."
Hobson made a very big deal
about this when it comes to China
more than 100 years ago:
"It is here enough to repeat
that Free Trade can nowise guarantee
the maintenance of industry, or
of an industrial population upon
any particular country, and there
is no consideration, theoretic
or practical, to prevent British
capital from transferring itself
to China, provided it can find
there a cheaper or more efficient
supply of labour, or even to prevent
Chinese capital with Chinese labour
from ousting British produce in
neutral markets of the world. What
applies to Great Britain applies
equally to the other industrial
nations which have driven their
economic suckers into China. It
is at least conceivable that China
might so turn the tables upon the
Western industrial nations, and,
either by adopting their capital
and organisers or, as is more probable,
by substituting her own, might
flood their markets with her cheaper
manufactures, and refusing their
imports in exchange might TAKE
HER PAYMENTS IN LIENS UPON THEIR
CAPITAL, REVERSING THE EARLIER
PROCESS OF INVESTMENT UNTIL SHE
GRADUALLY OBTAINED FINANCIAL CONTROL
OVER HER QUONDAM PATRONS AND CIVILISERS.
This is no idle speculation. If
China in very truth possesses those
industrial and business capacities
with which she is commonly accredited,
and the Western Powers are able
to have their will in developing
her upon Western lines, it seems
extremely likely that this reaction
will result." John Atkinson Hobson,
Imperialism, A Study, 1902."
Bad economics, futile critique,
and illusive new thinking
Comment on Peter Dorman on 'Review
of Economism: Bad Economics and
the Rise of Inequality by James
Kwak'
Economics claims since
Adam Smith/Karl Marx to be a science.
Yet, everybody who looks closer
into the matter comes to the conclusion
that economics is a failed science.
The four main approaches ― Walrasianism,
Keynesianism, Marxianism, Austrianism
― are mutually contradictory, axiomatically
false, materially/formally inconsistent,
and all got the pivotal concept
of the subject matter, i.e. profit,
wrong.
In this hopeless situation,
critique is futile: "There is another
alternative: to formulate a completely
new research program and conceptual
approach. As we have seen, this
is often spoken of, but there is
still no indication of what it
might mean." (Ingrao et al., 1990)
James Kwak, too, has not the
slightest idea what a paradigm
shift means: "To wrap up, Kwak
points out that, whatever its faults,
economism delivers by having a
simple, all-purpose, easy-to-grasp
message and then asks, 'What's
our message?' His answer is that
wealthy economies don't need economic
growth or even economic efficiency
as they used to, and we should
all turn away from economic concerns
and embrace happiness instead."*
Instead of coming up with a
'completely new research program
and conceptual approach' as replacement
for the standard approach, which
is known to be false on all methodological
counts, Kwak dishes out cheap advice
from the self-help workshop: don't
worry, be happy. To top it all,
this abortive pseudo-critical exercise
is advertised as new economic thinking.
Egmont Kakarot-Handtke
* See also 'The economist's
pick: liar, moron or what?'
http://axecorg.blogspot.de/2016/12/the-economists-pick-liar-moron-or-what.html
"... And it is not only automation vs. in-house labor. There is environmental/compliance cost (or lack thereof) and the fully loaded business services and administration overhead, taxes, etc. ..."
"... When automation increased productivity in agriculture, the government guaranteed free high school education as a right. ..."
"... Now Democrats like you would say it's too expensive. So what's your solution? You have none. You say "sucks to be them." ..."
"... And then they give you the finger and elect Trump. ..."
"... It wasn't only "low-skilled" workers but "anybody whose job could be offshored" workers. Not quite the same thing. ..."
"... It also happened in "knowledge work" occupations - for those functions that could be separated and outsourced without impacting the workflow at more expense than the "savings". And even if so, if enough of the competition did the same ... ..."
"... And not all outsourcing was offshore - also to "lowest bidders" domestically, or replacing "full time" "permanent" staff with contingent workers or outsourced "consultants" hired on a project basis. ..."
"... "People sure do like to attribute the cause to trade policy." Because it coincided with people watching their well-paying jobs being shipped overseas. The Democrats have denied this ever since Clinton and the Republicans passed NAFTA, but finally with Trump the voters had had enough. ..."
"... Why do you think Clinton lost Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennysylvania and Ohio? ..."
If it was technology why do US companies buy from low labor producers at the end of supply
chains 2000 - 10000 miles away? Why the transportation cost. Automated factories could be built
close by.
There is no such thing as an automated factory. Manufacturing is done by people, *assisted* by
automation. Or only part of the production pipeline is automated, but people are still needed
to fill in the not-automated pieces.
And it is not only automation vs. in-house labor. There is environmental/compliance cost
(or lack thereof) and the fully loaded business services and administration overhead, taxes, etc.
Trade policy put "low-skilled" workers in the U.S. in competition with workers in poorer countries.
What did you think was going to happen? The Democrat leadership made excuses. David Autor's TED
talk stuck with me. When automation increased productivity in agriculture, the government
guaranteed free high school education as a right.
Now Democrats like you would say it's too expensive. So what's your solution? You have
none. You say "sucks to be them."
And then they give you the finger and elect Trump.
It wasn't only "low-skilled" workers but "anybody whose job could be offshored" workers. Not
quite the same thing.
It also happened in "knowledge work" occupations - for those functions that could be separated
and outsourced without impacting the workflow at more expense than the "savings". And even if
so, if enough of the competition did the same ...
And not all outsourcing was offshore - also to "lowest bidders" domestically, or replacing
"full time" "permanent" staff with contingent workers or outsourced "consultants" hired on a project
basis.
"People sure do like to attribute the cause to trade policy." Because it coincided with people
watching their well-paying jobs being shipped overseas. The Democrats have denied this ever since
Clinton and the Republicans passed NAFTA, but finally with Trump the voters had had enough.
Why do you think Clinton lost Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennysylvania and Ohio?
"... The palter was to skip the fact that it had broken down twice in the last year, instead saying, "This car drives very smoothly and is very responsive. Just last week it started up with no problems when the temperature was 5 degrees Fahrenheit." The outright lie would have been: "This car has never had problems." Researchers learned that car sellers perceived paltering as more ethical than lying, and thus used it more. ..."
"... Paltering allows people who consider themselves honest to deceive others while getting the same results that lying would. In a third experiment, participants in a pretend real estate negotiation performed just as well when they paltered as they did when they lied. Their successes didn't come without costs, however. When the deception was discovered, negotiation partners deemed palterers as untrustworthy as liars. ..."
"... One occasional advantage of paltering over lying is plausible deniability: You can blame any misunderstanding on the listener. ..."
"... So how can you avoid falling victim? "If you ask a specific question, that specific question should be answered, not a variant of it," Rogers says, even though insistence on clarification "often makes you look like a jerk." ..."
"... Paltering relies on our tendency to trust others and not cause a scene. ..."
Although paltering occurs in all realms of life, researchers at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government
focused on its use in negotiation. In one of eight studies to be published in the Journal of Personality
and Social Psychology, study participants pretended to sell a used car on eBay. They answered the
buyer's question "Has this car ever had problems?" with a response selected from a list supplied
by the researchers.
The palter was to skip the fact that it had broken down twice in the last year, instead saying,
"This car drives very smoothly and is very responsive. Just last week it started up with no problems
when the temperature was 5 degrees Fahrenheit." The outright lie would have been: "This car has never
had problems." Researchers learned that car sellers perceived paltering as more ethical than lying,
and thus used it more.
In another study, half of surveyed executives said they paltered in more than "a few" of their
negotiations, versus a fifth who said they actively lied more than a few times. Consistent with this
discrepancy, executives viewed the behavior as more honest than lying.
Paltering allows people who consider themselves honest to deceive others while getting the
same results that lying would. In a third experiment, participants in a pretend real estate negotiation
performed just as well when they paltered as they did when they lied. Their successes didn't come
without costs, however. When the deception was discovered, negotiation partners deemed palterers
as untrustworthy as liars.
Another study found that victims saw palterers as less ethical than palterers saw themselves.
We have a "broken mental model" of paltering, the researchers have concluded, seeing this behavior
as honest when others do not.
One occasional advantage of paltering over lying is plausible deniability: You can blame any
misunderstanding on the listener. Without knowing the speaker's intentions, it's difficult to
diagnose paltering with certainty says Todd Rogers, a behavioral scientist at the Kennedy School
and the paper's lead author. Few examples are as clear as Bill Clinton's response when asked if he'd
had a sexual relationship with Monica Lewinsky: "There is not a sexual relationship - that is accurate."
(Note the slick use of present tense.)
So how can you avoid falling victim? "If you ask a specific question, that specific question
should be answered, not a variant of it," Rogers says, even though insistence on clarification "often
makes you look like a jerk."
Paltering relies on our tendency to trust others and not cause a scene. "It's pretty
amazing how much you can get away with because of people's truth bias," says David Clementson, a
researcher at Ohio State University's School of Communication, who was not involved in the study.
"Paltering totally takes advantage of that, diabolically and deceptively."
Artful Paltering: The Risks and Rewards
of Using Truthful Statements to Mislead Others
Rogers, Todd; Zeckhauser, Richard; et al.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,
Vol 112(3), Mar 2017, https://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/releases/psp-pspi0000081.pdf
"... During the inflationary crisis of the 1970s, elite policymakers in Western Europe came to the conclusion that it was no longer possible for the welfare state to operate as it had since 1945. Their project thereafter has been twofold: to convince the public that their diagnosis is right, and to enact (what they consider) necessary neoliberal reforms by any means necessary. ..."
"... The first task proved difficult with certain reforms (notably liberalizing labor markets) and easier with others (implementing a fixed exchange rate regime, effectively blocking full employment macroeconomic policy, though not explicitly described as such by its proponents). ..."
"... Gradually, elites shifted their emphasis toward the second strategy. Their primary means of forcing through reform has been the non-democratic policymaking machinery that the European Union put in place in the 1980s and '90s to straitjacket national political actors. (A policymaking machinery that national actors have largely gone along with, since they too are convinced that their domestic policies need a heavy dose of neoliberal reform.) ..."
"... The European far right has existed continuously since World War II, with outbreaks in different countries at different times, each of which is an interesting political phenomenon in its own right. ..."
"... Le Pen's first appearance on the French political scene: the 1956 general election, when Le Pen was elected as part of a wave of followers of the lower-middle-class, xenophobic, populist tax-revolter Pierre Poujade. ..."
"... The center-left establishment is disdained because it tried to bypass national politics and become the high priest-caste of a regressive European order. ..."
"... The reason this political moment feels different - the threat of the far right more threatening, the wan protection offered by the political establishment least reassuring - has nothing to do with the far right itself, nor with the failure of traditional social-democratic policies. Indeed, since Beauchamp assumes that social democracy has been static since 1945, it cannot possibly have caused a political phenomenon that only thrust itself upon us in the last few years. ..."
"... The difference - the critical break - lies in the behavior of the establishment near-right in the aftermath of the financial crisis. It perceived, far sooner than the hapless social democrats of the European mainstream, that the consensus economic policies of the post-1970s era were doomed in the public mind. Having no other acceptable economic program to fall back on, they moved to assimilate xenophobia and use it as both an offensive and defensive weapon for the coming populist onslaught. That is what Cameron did when he acceded to a Brexit referendum, and that is what the Republican Party did when it nominated Donald Trump for the presidency. ..."
"... In short, Trump cannot simply have been caused by white supremacy, because we have always had white supremacy. What we haven't always had is the breakdown of elite consensus and the center-left's veneration of procedural norms and reliance on "non-partisan" third-party validators to fight what is in fact an ideological power struggle. ..."
Again it's interesting that Sanjait and PGL usually agree with Krugman, Bible and verse but they
didn't agree with his most recent blog post which was about populism and leftwing/Sanders-type
economic policy.
Titled "Populism and the Politics of Health"
And yet they didn't want to talk about! Very odd...
Here's a good rejoiner to Vox and Krugman about a subject Sanjait and PGL don't want to talk
about:
A Vox writer sets out to prove social-democratic policies aided the far right. He fails.
by Marshall Steinbaum
Several weeks before Hillary Clinton's bitter defeat at the hands of Donald Trump, Vox's Zack
Beauchamp waded into the simplistic debate about whether "economic anxiety" or racism was to blame
for Trump's political success with a salvo on behalf of the racism explanation. Although that
effort made some worthwhile points, it ultimately failed to explain why long-existing latent racism
manifested in the sudden increase in xenophobia in formal politics.
This week Beauchamp returned to the breach, which has only grown wider since Trump's victory.
Now the battle is about whether economic populism offers a way to stop Trump and the international
march of the far right, rather than whether economic dislocation caused that march in the first
place.
Beauchamp doesn't think Bernie Sanders–style economic populism can foil the far right. But
his argument is much more ambitious: he sets out to prove that economically populist policies
stoke, rather than ameliorate, far-right political tendencies. To do that, he deploys the following
claims:
*European countries that adopted more generous redistributive policies in the post–World War
II era were more vulnerable to far-right politics than those that adopted less generous ones.
*The far right's rise occurred over the past several decades and continues despite the Left's
efforts to buy its supporters off with socialism. The reason why is that continuous immigration
has run up against an electorate that is irredeemably racist and only becomes more so as it perceives
immigrants to be the beneficiaries of the welfare state.
*Recent cases in which once-center-left parties swung decisively to the left - notably, the
UK Labour Party - have proved politically disastrous and only further exacerbated the loss of
political ground to the far right.
*American history is replete with white supremacy, and that fact is probably the major reason
why politics in the US has consistently been several notches to the right of our European counterparts.
Of these claims, only the last one resembles reality. All the others are blatant misreadings
of recent and not-so-recent history.
According to Beauchamp's stylized view of European politics, social democracy exists along
a one-dimensional continuum, with variation in the degree to which it was enacted into policy
in different countries after 1945. Combining the rising tide of immigration since the 1970s with
the ex-ante degree of social generosity, Beauchamp concludes that redistribution is perceived
as a giveaway to outsiders, and hence motivates backlash politics.
What's missing here is an understanding of what actually happened to European social democracy
along the way. So let me supply a hopefully slightly better potted history.
During the inflationary crisis of the 1970s, elite policymakers in Western Europe came to the
conclusion that it was no longer possible for the welfare state to operate as it had since 1945.
Their project thereafter has been twofold: to convince the public that their diagnosis is right,
and to enact (what they consider) necessary neoliberal reforms by any means necessary.
The first task proved difficult with certain reforms (notably liberalizing labor markets) and
easier with others (implementing a fixed exchange rate regime, effectively blocking full employment
macroeconomic policy, though not explicitly described as such by its proponents).
Gradually, elites shifted their emphasis toward the second strategy. Their primary means of
forcing through reform has been the non-democratic policymaking machinery that the European Union
put in place in the 1980s and '90s to straitjacket national political actors. (A policymaking
machinery that national actors have largely gone along with, since they too are convinced that
their domestic policies need a heavy dose of neoliberal reform.)
This hollowing out of national politics has had a profound effect on European social democracy.
As power shifted from democratically accountable to democratically unaccountable institutions
through privatization and European integration, the state's capacity to do anything about popular
(as opposed to elite) grievances eroded and discontent exploded.
The ideal end goal of contemporary European social democratic parties is perhaps best embodied
by Germany's Hartz Reforms. Enacted by a Social Democratic government in the early to mid 2000s
over the objections of the country's labor unions, the labor market reforms occasioned a split
in the party that has not been bridged since. According to the consensus narrative, the measures
left Germany in better shape than ever, allowing it to weather the Great Recession and become
a haven for economic and political refugees.
Beauchamp buys this assessment, endorsing - without evidence - the view that too much redistribution
and regulation causes economic problems. Yet the Hartz Reforms are not responsible for Germany's
relative macroeconomic success. In fact, they've worsened its labor market outcomes.
Beauchamp's point is not to conduct a policy evaluation, of course, but to presuppose that
such an evaluation has already been conducted. And that serves his real rhetorical aim: to discredit
the notion that social-democratic policies offer a solution to an emboldened far right. That it
might be exactly the failure of these neoliberal reforms and the disrepute they've brought the
leaders and factions who spearheaded them that caused social democracy's parlous state is nowhere
entertained. The sea change in social democracy goes entirely unmentioned in Beauchamp's piece.
Which brings us to the parallel potted history of the European far right. Beauchamp's method
is to recount a series of dates and country names: Jen-Marie Le Pen's creation of the Front National
in France in 1972; its electoral breakthrough in the 1984 European elections (which Beauchamp
doesn't note immediately followed a round of fiscal austerity inflicted by a Socialist government);
Jorg Haider's takeover of the Freedom Party in Austria in 1986; Pim Fortuyn's 2002 assassination
on the cusp of winning an outsized share of the vote in a Dutch parliamentary election; and Le
Pen's success at reaching the French presidential election's second round that year. The narrative
here is of a transnational, steady rise to power.
That telling is almost wholly false. The European far right has existed continuously since
World War II, with outbreaks in different countries at different times, each of which is an interesting
political phenomenon in its own right.
Beauchamp doesn't mention, for instance, Le Pen's first appearance on the French political
scene: the 1956 general election, when Le Pen was elected as part of a wave of followers of the
lower-middle-class, xenophobic, populist tax-revolter Pierre Poujade. Why omit that election?
Because it would hinder Beauchamp's claim, pointing as it does to a social movement that has long
existed on the fringes of politics and society and comes closest to power only when the political
establishment is most discredited in the public mind. And that is exactly where we are now.
The reason the European political establishment, particularly of the center-left variety, is
held in contempt is not because it tried making the welfare state more generous, only to have
the electorate turn against them out of the racist belief that foreigners were vacuuming up all
the benefits. The center-left establishment is disdained because it tried to bypass national politics
and become the high priest-caste of a regressive European order.
Which brings us to the UK Labour Party and Jeremy Corbyn's election as its leader. Beauchamp's
move here is to conflate Corbyn with his hapless predecessor, Ed Miliband, and thereby link Labour's
poor performance since 2010 to one big move to the left. In truth, Miliband inherited a party
burned by its association with the financial crisis and its willingness to go along with the Iraq
War, and steered it through treacherous waters with a mix of Blairite and more populist rhetoric
(his greatest success being a proposal to regulate power companies).
Although Beauchamp paints the 2015 general election result as a disaster for Labour, the incumbent
Tory-led coalition government came very close to losing, and the current Tory government enjoys
the slimmest parliamentary majority since the 1970s. Labour netted seats at Conservative and Liberal
Democrat expense in England; its total count suffered because the Scottish electorate deserted
the party in favor of the Scottish National Party - a move driven by Scotland's overwhelming disgust
for the incumbent government and hostility to the Westminster Labour faction's record under Blair
and Brown. Far from being a failure of the left, these results were further evidence of the establishment's
tarnished legitimacy.
This is the environment that propelled Corbyn to the top of Labour. His candidacy in the leadership
election later that year was given a crucial boost by the parliamentary party's failure to oppose
the reelected Tory government's cuts to social welfare early in the parliament's term - feeding
the perception of a hapless, ideologically adrift party leadership in need of a drastic shake
up.
Notably, the name "David Cameron" appears not once in Beauchamp's account of recent British
political history. Yet the reason Cameron won the 2015 election was the big giveaway he made to
shore up his right flank: the Brexit referendum. When Brexit ended up passing - despite the opposition
of every major party - it was a gigantic slap in the face to the incumbent establishment. (Oddly,
Beauchamp portrays Brexit as discrediting Corbyn - mirroring the way that Corbyn's intraparty
opponents blamed his leadership for the vote, even though the Labour electorate overwhelmingly
opposed Brexit and its winning margin was drawn from the English middle class, long the Tories'
electoral backbone.)
The reason this political moment feels different - the threat of the far right more threatening,
the wan protection offered by the political establishment least reassuring - has nothing to do
with the far right itself, nor with the failure of traditional social-democratic policies. Indeed,
since Beauchamp assumes that social democracy has been static since 1945, it cannot possibly have
caused a political phenomenon that only thrust itself upon us in the last few years.
The difference - the critical break - lies in the behavior of the establishment near-right
in the aftermath of the financial crisis. It perceived, far sooner than the hapless social democrats
of the European mainstream, that the consensus economic policies of the post-1970s era were doomed
in the public mind. Having no other acceptable economic program to fall back on, they moved to
assimilate xenophobia and use it as both an offensive and defensive weapon for the coming populist
onslaught. That is what Cameron did when he acceded to a Brexit referendum, and that is what the
Republican Party did when it nominated Donald Trump for the presidency.
Which brings us, finally, back home. The last section of Beauchamp's article draws upon the
great work of Eric Foner and his many disciples. American democracy and American government, Foner
argues, have been stained by white supremacy from the country's founding right up through the
present. The disenfranchisement of a large segment of what would have been a core constituency
for an American social-democratic party - southern blacks - helps explain twentieth- and twenty-first
century political and policy outcomes, well beyond the dire consequences for disenfranchised blacks
themselves. This is a basic, ineluctable fact of American politics.
That's not where Beauchamp ends up, however. Instead he blames the victim for social democracy's
failure in the US: by advocating economic egalitarianism in hostile political territory, he argues,
economic populists brought defeat upon themselves as a racist electorate interpreted that agenda
as a bid to overturn the racial hierarchy.
As Matt Bruenig has written, the unspoken implication of Beauchamp's narrative is that any
left economic agenda must first make it clear that the racial hierarchy will under no circumstances
be threatened. "You can have diversity or you can have economic justice, but you can't have both,"
to use Bruenig's characterization. The acceptance of that false dichotomy, of course, is what
gave us "super-predators," "the end of welfare as we know it," and the Obama administration's
absolute prohibition on uttering the word "poverty" in public prior to its 2012 reelection.
Yet if Beauchamp's interpretation is correct, then the US should never have seen anything other
than reactionary economic policy. And that's obviously not the case.
Interracial, interethnic social movements in the late nineteenth and early twentieth century
won major reforms in the face of implacable hostility from both white supremacists and capitalist
interests. And insofar as Progressive Era politicians betrayed the integrated coalitions that
brought them to power, the sellout took place behind the closed doors of the statehouses and the
United States Capitol. They most certainly did not reflect the impossibility of forming a class-based,
multiracial political coalition.
Then there was the period from 1940 to 1970, which witnessed the greatest progress in closing
the racial wealth and earnings gaps since Reconstruction, thanks to the strength of the New Deal
coalition and the labor movement, which integrated the federal government's military-industrial
supply chain (as well as the military itself, following the war), and the Civil Rights Movement,
which successfully pressed the federal government to intervene in the South on behalf of equal
rights. That advance was eventually turned back the same way it was during Reconstruction: through
an alliance of white supremacy and implicitly racialized "free market" ideology, the latter of
which came to dominate both major political parties.
In short, Trump cannot simply have been caused by white supremacy, because we have always had
white supremacy. What we haven't always had is the breakdown of elite consensus and the center-left's
veneration of procedural norms and reliance on "non-partisan" third-party validators to fight
what is in fact an ideological power struggle.
Insofar as Beauchamp has a rhetorical opponent rather than a straw man, it is the Left's backlash
against this retrograde, apologetic politics, which comes at a time when the latter has finally
and abjectly failed to win or hold power at the federal, state, or local level. And that failure
has occurred because centrist apologetics are up against the real thing: far-right xenophobia,
shoulder to shoulder with plutocracy, dominating our national politics and threatening the lives
and wellbeing of millions of our American and immigrant brethren.
Winning justice for those oppressed groups, if it is to happen, will owe nothing to the politics
for which Beauchamp fights his rearguard action.
"... With quantitative measurements especially, the definiteness of the result suggests, often misleadingly, a precision and simplicity in the outlines of the object measured. Measurements of national income are subject to this type of illusion and resulting abuse, especially since they deal with matters that are the center of conflict of opposing social groups where the effectiveness of an argument is often contingent upon oversimplification. [...] ..."
People like you pray on the altar of GDP growth, don't they?
Look at the formula and shake from fear because the formula:
GDP = C + G + I + NX
or
GDP = consumption + government+ investment + (exports − imports)
is clearly open to huge machinations (BTW G includes purchase of weapons for the military;
you get the idea what I am hinting at). Also all the contribution of financial firms to GDP should
probably be counted with negative sign ;-). Because large part of it is either racket or illicit
rent extraction from the society which weakens the "real" economy.
The problem with all major statistical aggregates is that "it is better not to see them being
made."
And if you measure GDP via
GDP = Compensation of employees + Gross operating surplus + Gross mixed income
are you sure that you will get the same metric?
The same is true for unemployment, inflation, oil production, and other "politically sensitive"
economic metrics.
When I see a person who quotes GDP figures or unemployment without discussing his view of its
reliability and margin of error (for example for GDP via inflation, or the method of including
"services" part of economy; same for the difference between fake U3 and more realistic U6 for
unemployment), I suspect that particular person is either charlatan, or neoclassical economist
( which is basically highly intersecting subsets ).
We probably should introduce the term "statiness" in analogy with "mathiness" (or would "number
racket" be a better term?)
As Kuznets told to "statistical charlatans" long ago:
The valuable capacity of the human mind to simplify a complex situation in a compact characterization
becomes dangerous when not controlled in terms of definitely stated criteria.
With quantitative measurements especially, the definiteness of the result suggests, often misleadingly,
a precision and simplicity in the outlines of the object measured. Measurements of national income
are subject to this type of illusion and resulting abuse, especially since they deal with matters
that are the center of conflict of opposing social groups where the effectiveness of an argument
is often contingent upon oversimplification. [...]
All these qualifications upon estimates of national income as an index of productivity are
just as important when income measurements are interpreted from the point of view of economic
welfare. But in the latter case additional difficulties will be suggested to anyone who wants
to penetrate below the surface of total figures and market values. Economic welfare cannot be
adequately measured unless the personal distribution of income is known.
And no income measurement undertakes to estimate the reverse side of income, that is, the intensity
and unpleasantness of effort going into the earning of income. The welfare of a nation can, therefore,
scarcely be inferred from a measurement of national income as defined above.
"... Facts are always presented via lens of some underling theory and if the theory is wrong, facts can lie, even when the figures are more or less correct, or within the margin of error. ..."
"... Technocratic neoliberal economists well represented here actually serve as a fifth column of financial oligarchy, and always were. ..."
"... Simplistic and wrong supply-and-demand theory fed a market fundamentalism ideology. As a result we have a financial crash, a dysfunctional health-care system, spiraling inequality and a deficient, inadequate for a modern society social-safety net. ..."
"... When competitive free markets and rational well-informed actors are the baseline assumption, the burden of proof shifts unfairly onto anyone proposing a government policy. Government programs and regulations start to seem dangerous and inefficient, while inequality begins to feel like the natural and just order of things. ..."
"... The Amazon page to Kwak book explains, "Economism: an ideology that distorts the valid principles and tools of introductory college economics, propagated by self-styled experts, zealous lobbyists, clueless politicians, and ignorant pundits." ..."
"... Economism is reduction of all social facts to economic dimensions. The term is often used to criticize economics as an ideology, in which supply and demand are the only important factors in decisions, and outstrip or permit ignoring all other factors. ..."
"... It is believed to be a side effect of neoclassical economics and blind faith in an "invisible hand" or "laissez-faire" means of making decisions, extended far beyond controlled and regulated markets, and used to make political and military decisions. ..."
"... Conventional ethics would play no role in decisions under pure economism, except insofar as supply would be withheld, demand curtailed, by moral choices of individuals. Thus, critics of economism insist on political and other cultural dimensions in society. ..."
Facts are always presented via lens of some underling theory and if the theory is wrong,
facts can lie, even when the figures are more or less correct, or within the margin of error.
Technocratic neoliberal economists well represented here actually serve as a fifth column
of financial oligarchy, and always were.
Rehashing Noah Smith thoughts we can say:
Simplistic and wrong supply-and-demand theory fed a market fundamentalism ideology. As
a result we have a financial crash, a dysfunctional health-care system, spiraling inequality
and a deficient, inadequate for a modern society social-safety net.
So when people like Krugman are now expressing their rage about Trump social policies they
should understand that they created Trump.
When competitive free markets and rational well-informed actors are the baseline assumption,
the burden of proof shifts unfairly onto anyone proposing a government policy. Government programs
and regulations start to seem dangerous and inefficient, while inequality begins to feel like
the natural and just order of things.
Neoliberalism with its set of myth, sold as economic theory maintains an almost unshakeable
grip on thinking of most people in the USA. It is the USA civil religion, national ideology
that displaced Christianity. So they now somebody claims the this is one nation under God,
they factually incorrect if we mean Jesus ;-) It is a newly-born nation which rejected Christianity,
adopted neoliberalism instead and now prays to the altar of "free market".
Because those myths when shared by most people, they obtained its own dynamics. In this
sense too we can say that most people in the USA are totally and possibly irrevocably "neoliberally-brainwashed".
That means that neoliberalism has huge staying power and it is unclear when and how and into
what it collapses.
That might well mean that like Bolsheviks who used to hold the same ideological grip on
the people of the USSR people of the USA will march toward the cliff without much thinking.
The abuse of simplistic econ theories for political ends gives neoliberal economists enormous
prestige. It also sustains the enormous demand for the undergraduate econ major and corresponding
courses and textbooks (look at Mankiw ;-). Passing economic courses with high grade now serves
like SAT for those who want to go into business or management. The mark of indoctrination.
Look at disdain with which "economists" here treat the people who does not know or does not
want to know all this neoclassic nonsense.
The worldview neoliberalism promulgates is too simplistic, and inevitably ends up hurting
the many to benefit the few.
There one additional notion that is more general then neoliberalism and that is applicable
here. It is called "economism" (please read Kwak book, it is really worth reading).
This is the reduction of all social facts to economic dimensions which is at the core of mental
model that most "economists" here use. Unlike mathiness, it is a very old term which was use since
late 19th century.
The Amazon page to Kwak book explains, "Economism: an ideology that distorts the valid principles
and tools of introductory college economics, propagated by self-styled experts, zealous lobbyists,
clueless politicians, and ignorant pundits."
Here is a relevant quote from Wikipedia
== quote ==
Economism is reduction of all social facts to economic dimensions. The term is often
used to criticize economics as an ideology, in which supply and demand are the only important
factors in decisions, and outstrip or permit ignoring all other factors.
It is believed to be a side effect of neoclassical economics and blind faith in an "invisible
hand" or "laissez-faire" means of making decisions, extended far beyond controlled and regulated
markets, and used to make political and military decisions.
Conventional ethics would play no role in decisions under pure economism, except insofar
as supply would be withheld, demand curtailed, by moral choices of individuals. Thus, critics
of economism insist on political and other cultural dimensions in society.
Old Right social critic Albert Jay Nock used the term more broadly, denoting a moral and
social philosophy "which interprets the whole sum of human life in terms of the production,
acquisition, and distribution of wealth". He went on to say "I have sometimes thought that
here may be the rock on which Western civilization will finally shatter itself. Economism can
build a society which is rich, prosperous, powerful, even one which has a reasonably wide diffusion
of material well-being.
It can not build one which is lovely, one which has savor and depth, and which exercises
the irresistible power of attraction that loveliness wields.
Perhaps by the time economism has run its course the society it has built may be tired of
itself, bored of its own hideousness, and may despairingly consent to annihilation, aware that
it is too ugly to be let live any longer."[1]
libezkova -> libezkova... , -1
"It is a newly-born nation which rejected Christianity, adopted neoliberalism instead and now
prays to the altar of "free market"."
Neoliberalism explicitly rejects the key ideas of Christianity -- the idea of ultimate justice
for all sinners. Like Marxism this is an atheistic philosophy which asserts that "each individual
is his or her own god and there is no room for any other God. "
Here is Pope Francis thought of the subject (Evangelii Gaudium, Apostolic Exhortation of Pope
Francis, 2013):
... Such an [neoliberal] economy kills. How can it be that it is not a news item when an elderly
homeless person dies of exposure, but it is news when the stock market loses two points? This
is a case of exclusion. Can we continue to stand by when food is thrown away while people are
starving? This is a case of inequality. Today everything comes under the laws of competition and
the survival of the fittest, where the powerful feed upon the powerless. As a consequence, masses
of people find themselves excluded and marginalized: without work, without possibilities, without
any means of escape.
Human beings are themselves considered consumer goods to be used and then discarded. We have
created a "disposable" culture which is now spreading. It is no longer simply about exploitation
and oppression, but something new. Exclusion ultimately has to do with what it means to be a part
of the society in which we live; those excluded are no longer society's underside or its fringes
or its disenfranchised – they are no longer even a part of it. The excluded are not the "exploited"
but the outcast, the "leftovers".
54. In this context, some people continue to defend trickle-down theories which assume that
economic growth, encouraged by a free market, will inevitably succeed in bringing about greater
justice and inclusiveness in the world. This opinion, which has never been confirmed by the facts,
expresses a crude and naïve trust in the goodness of those wielding economic power and in the
sacralized workings of the prevailing economic system. Meanwhile, the excluded are still waiting.
To sustain a lifestyle which excludes others, or to sustain enthusiasm for that selfish ideal,
a globalization of indifference has developed.
Almost without being aware of it, we end up being incapable of feeling compassion at the outcry
of the poor, weeping for other people's pain, and feeling a need to help them, as though all this
were someone else's responsibility and not our own. The culture of prosperity deadens us; we are
thrilled if the market offers us something new to purchase; and in the meantime all those lives
stunted for lack of opportunity seem a mere spectacle; they fail to move us.
No to the new idolatry of money
55. One cause of this situation is found in our relationship with money, since we calmly accept
its dominion over ourselves and our societies. The current financial crisis can make us overlook
the fact that it originated in a profound human crisis: the denial of the primacy of the human
person! We have created new idols. The worship of the ancient golden calf (cf. Ex 32:1-35) has
returned in a new and ruthless guise in the idolatry of money and the dictatorship of an impersonal
economy lacking a truly human purpose. The worldwide crisis affecting finance and the economy
lays bare their imbalances and, above all, their lack of real concern for human beings; man is
reduced to one of his needs alone: consumption.
56. While the earnings of a minority are growing exponentially, so too is the gap separating
the majority from the prosperity enjoyed by those happy few. This imbalance is the result of ideologies
which defend the absolute autonomy of the marketplace and financial speculation. Consequently,
they reject the right of states, charged with vigilance for the common good, to exercise any form
of control. A new tyranny is thus born, invisible and often virtual, which unilaterally and relentlessly
imposes its own laws and rules. Debt and the accumulation of interest also make it difficult for
countries to realize the potential of their own economies and keep citizens from enjoying their
real purchasing power. To all this we can add widespread corruption and self-serving tax evasion,
which have taken on worldwide dimensions. The thirst for power and possessions knows no limits.
In this system, which tends to devour everything which stands in the way of increased profits,
whatever is fragile, like the environment, is defenseless before the interests of a deified market,
which become the only rule.
No to a financial system which rules rather than serves
57. Behind this attitude lurks a rejection of ethics and a rejection of God. Ethics has come
to be viewed with a certain scornful derision. It is seen as counterproductive, too human, because
it makes money and power relative. It is felt to be a threat, since it condemns the manipulation
and debasement of the person. In effect, ethics leads to a God who calls for a committed response
which is outside of the categories of the marketplace. When these latter are absolutized, God
can only be seen as uncontrollable, unmanageable, even dangerous, since he calls human beings
to their full realization and to freedom from all forms of enslavement. Ethics – a non-ideological
ethics – would make it possible to bring about balance and a more humane social order. With this
in mind, I encourage financial experts and political leaders to ponder the words of one of the
sages of antiquity: "Not to share one's wealth with the poor is to steal from them and to take
away their livelihood. It is not our own goods which we hold, but theirs".[55]
58. A financial reform open to such ethical considerations would require a vigorous change
of approach on the part of political leaders. I urge them to face this challenge with determination
and an eye to the future, while not ignoring, of course, the specifics of each case. Money must
serve, not rule! The Pope loves everyone, rich and poor alike, but he is obliged in the name of
Christ to remind all that the rich must help, respect and promote the poor. I exhort you to generous
solidarity and a return of economics and finance to an ethical approach which favours human beings.
No to the inequality which spawns violence
59. Today in many places we hear a call for greater security. But until exclusion and inequality
in society and between peoples is reversed, it will be impossible to eliminate violence. The poor
and the poorer peoples are accused of violence, yet without equal opportunities the different
forms of aggression and conflict will find a fertile terrain for growth and eventually explode.
When a society – whether local, national or global – is willing to leave a part of itself on the
fringes, no political programmes or resources spent on law enforcement or surveillance systems
can indefinitely guarantee tranquility. This is not the case simply because inequality provokes
a violent reaction from those excluded from the system, but because the socioeconomic system is
unjust at its root. Just as goodness tends to spread, the toleration of evil, which is injustice,
tends to expand its baneful influence and quietly to undermine any political and social system,
no matter how solid it may appear. If every action has its consequences, an evil embedded in the
structures of a society has a constant potential for disintegration and death.
It is evil crystallized in unjust social structures, which cannot be the basis of hope for
a better future. We are far from the so-called "end of history", since the conditions for a sustainable
and peaceful development have not yet been adequately articulated and realized.
60. Today's economic mechanisms promote inordinate consumption, yet it is evident that unbridled
consumerism combined with inequality proves doubly damaging to the social fabric. Inequality eventually
engenders a violence which recourse to arms cannot and never will be able to resolve. This serves
only to offer false hopes to those clamouring for heightened security, even though nowadays we
know that weapons and violence, rather than providing solutions, create new and more serious conflicts.
Some simply content themselves with blaming the poor and the poorer countries themselves for their
troubles; indulging in unwarranted generalizations, they claim that the solution is an "education"
that would tranquilize them, making them tame and harmless.
All this becomes even more exasperating for the marginalized in the light of the widespread
and deeply rooted corruption found in many countries – in their governments, businesses and institutions
– whatever the political ideology of their leaders.
"It is a newly-born nation which rejected Christianity, adopted neoliberalism instead and now
prays to the altar of "free market"."
How about "Mammon"
Mammon /ˈmæmən/ in the New Testament of the Bible is commonly thought to mean money, material
wealth, or any entity that promises wealth, and is associated with the greedy pursuit of gain.
"You cannot serve both God and mammon."
"... In the same way, neoliberals are no different. They aren't bad people – they just see their policies as right and just because those policies are working well for them and the people in their class, and I don't think they really understand why it doesn't work for others – maybe, like Adam Smith, they think that is the "natural state" .. ..."
"... Read the first sentence of the Theory of Moral Sentiments – it makes an assumption which is the foundation of all of Adam Smith. He asserted that all men are moral. Morality in economics is the invisible hand creating order like gravity in astronomy. Unfortunately, Adam Smith's assumption is false or at least not true enough to form a sound foundation for useful economic theory. ..."
"... But "morality" means different things to different people. Smith only saw the morality of his own class. For example, I am sure a wealthy man would consider it very moral to accumulate as much money as he could so that he would be seen by his peers as a good and worthy man who cares for his future generations and the well being of his class – he doesn't see this accumulation as amoral – whilst a poor man may think that kind of accumulation is amoral because he thinks that money could be better used provide for those without the basic needs to survive ..."
"... "People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices." ..."
"... Another I remember from Smith was something like, "The law exists to protect those who have much from those who have little." Sounds about right. ..."
"... One of Steve Keen's favourite analogies is astronomy. Neoclassical economics is like Ptolemy's epicycles; assume the Earth is at the centre, and that the planets orbit in circles and simply by adding little circles-epicycles-you can accurately describe the observed motion of the planets. The right epicycles in the right places can describe any motion. But they can't explain anything, they add nothing to understanding, they subtract from it, because they are false but give the illusion of knowledge. Drop the assumptions and you can begin to get somewhere. ..."
"... Steve Keen seems to have latched onto this in the last year or so, pointing out that all production is driven by energy. And the energy comes ultimately from the sun. Either it is turned into production via feeding workers, or by fueling machinery (by burning hydrocarbons extracted from plant and animal remains). ..."
"... I have a question about a similar thing. Simon Kuznetz is credited as someone who has invented modern concept of GDP and he revolutionized the field of economics with statistical method (econometrics). However, Kuznets , in the same report in which he presented modern concept of GDP to US congress, wrote following(from wikipedia): ..."
"... "The valuable capacity of the human mind to simplify a complex situation in a compact characterization becomes dangerous when not controlled in terms of definitely stated criteria. With quantitative measurements especially, the definiteness of the result suggests, often misleadingly, a precision and simplicity in the outlines of the object measured. Measurements of national income are subject to this type of illusion and resulting abuse, especially since they deal with matters that are the center of conflict of opposing social groups where the effectiveness of an argument is often contingent upon oversimplification. ..."
"... All these qualifications upon estimates of national income as an index of productivity are just as important when income measurements are interpreted from the point of view of economic welfare. But in the latter case additional difficulties will be suggested to anyone who wants to penetrate below the surface of total figures and market values. Economic welfare cannot be adequately measured unless the personal distribution of income is known. And no income measurement undertakes to estimate the reverse side of income, that is, the intensity and unpleasantness of effort going into the earning of income. The welfare of a nation can, therefore, scarcely be inferred from a measurement of national income as defined above. Distinctions must be kept in mind between quantity and quality of growth, between costs and returns, and between the short and long run. Goals for more growth should specify more growth of what and for what." ..."
"... "So , my question is why economists keep treating GDP as some scared metric when its creator himself deems it not reliable? Why all qualifications about GDP by Kuznetz is ignored by most of the economists nowadays?"@Vedant ..."
"... That is your explanation right there. Large abstract numbers such as GDP obscure social issues such as "the personal distribution of income." and the effort that goes into creating that income. Large abstract numbers obscure the moral dimension that must be a part of all economic discussion and are obscured by statistics and sciencism. As the genius of Mark Twain put it, "There are lies, damned lies and statistics." Beware the credentialed classes! ..."
"... Interesting. There is a great book by John Dupré called 'Human Nature and the Limits of Science (2001)", which tackles this subject in a general way: the facts that taking a mechanistic model as a paradigm for diverse areas of science is problematic and leads to myopia. ..."
"... He describes it as a form of 'scientific imperialism', stretching the use of concepts from one area of science to other areas and leading to bad results (because there are, you know, relevant differences). As a prime example, he mentions economics. (When reading EConned;s chapter of the science ( 'science') of economics, I was struck by the similar argument.) ..."
"... Soddy was a scientist. He should have written as a scientist with definitions, logic and rigour, but he wrote like a philosopher, full of waffle and unsubstantiated assertions like other economists. It is unscientific to apply universal laws discovered in physics and chemistry to economics without proving by observations that those laws also apply to economics. ..."
"... I get irritated by radical free-marketeers who when presented with a social problem tend to dogmatically assert that "The free market wills it," as if that ended all discussion. It is as if the free market was their God who must always be obeyed. Unlike Abraham, we do not need to obey if we feel that the answer is unjust. ..."
"... Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire ..."
"... The moralistic explanations for the disintegration of the (Western) Roman Empire were long ago discarded by all serious analysis of late antiquity. More practical explanations, especially the loss of the North African bread basket to the Vandals, are presented in the scholarly work these days. ..."
"... That book of Gibbon's is an incredible achievement. If it is not read by historians today, it is their loss. Its moral explanations, out of fashion today, are actually quite compelling. They become more so when read with de Tocqueville's views of the moral foundations of American township democracy and their transmission into the behavior, and assumptions, of New Englanders, whose views formed the basis of the federal republican constitution. ..."
"... The loss of the breadbasket was problematical, too. And it may be that no civilization, however young and virile, could withstand the migrations forever, as they withstood or absorbed them, with a few exceptions, for eight hundred years. But the progressive losses to the migratory tribes may have been a symptom of the real, "moral," cause of the decline. ..."
"... From 536-539AD the entire planet suffered a staggering holocaust. Krakatoa blew up - ejecting so much dust that it triggered a 'nuclear winter' that lasted through those years. ..."
"... It was this period that ended agriculture in North Africa. ( Algeria-Tunisia ) The drought blew all of the top soil into the Med. It was an irreversible tragedy. ..."
"... Economics is not science, simply because economics does not take facts seriously enough to modify flawed theories. ..."
"... In college I couldn't help but notice the similarities between modern economic theory and the control theory taught in engineering. Not such a great fit though, society is not a mechanical governor. ..."
Yves here. This post takes what I see as an inconsistent, indeed, inaccurate stance
on Adam Smith, since it depicts him as advocating laissez faire and also not being concerned about
"emotions, sentiment, human relations and community." Smith was fiercely opposed to monopolies as
well as businessmen colluding to lower the wages paid to workers. He also saw The Theory of Moral
Sentiments as his most important work and wanted it inscribed on his gravestone.
Jacob Viner addressed the laissez-faire attribution to Adam Smith in 1928 ..Here is a list
extracted from Wealth Of Nations:
the Navigation Acts, blessed by Smith under the assertion that 'defence, however, is of much
more importance than opulence' (WN464); Sterling marks on plate and stamps on linen and woollen
cloth (WN138–9); enforcement of contracts by a system of justice (WN720); wages to be paid
in money, not goods; regulations of paper money in banking (WN437); obligations to build party
walls to prevent the spread of fire (WN324); rights of farmers to send farm produce to the
best market (except 'only in the most urgent necessity') (WN539); 'Premiums and other encouragements
to advance the linen and woollen industries' (TMS185); 'Police', or preservation of the 'cleanliness
of roads, streets, and to prevent the bad effects of corruption and putrifying substances';
ensuring the 'cheapness or plenty [of provisions]' (LJ6; 331); patrols by town guards and fire
fighters to watch for hazardous accidents (LJ331–2); erecting and maintaining certain public
works and public institutions intended to facilitate commerce (roads, bridges, canals and harbours)
(WN723); coinage and the mint (WN478; 1724); post office (WN724); regulation of institutions,
such as company structures (joint- stock companies, co-partneries, regulated companies and
so on) (WN731–58); temporary monopolies, including copyright and patents, of fixed duration
(WN754); education of youth ('village schools', curriculum design and so on) (WN758–89); education
of people of all ages (tythes or land tax) (WN788); encouragement of 'the frequency and gaiety
of publick diversions'(WN796); the prevention of 'leprosy or any other loathsome and offensive
disease' from spreading among the population (WN787–88); encouragement of martial exercises
(WN786); registration of mortgages for land, houses and boats over two tons (WN861, 863); government
restrictions on interest for borrowing (usury laws) to overcome investor 'stupidity' (WN356–7);
laws against banks issuing low-denomination promissory notes (WN324); natural liberty may be
breached if individuals 'endanger the security of the whole society' (WN324); limiting 'free
exportation of corn' only 'in cases of the most urgent necessity' ('dearth' turning into 'famine')
(WN539); and moderate export taxes on wool exports for government revenue (WN879).
"Viner concluded, unsurprisingly, that 'Adam Smith was not a doctrinaire advocate of laissez-faire'.
By Douglass Carmichael, perviously a Professor at University of California at Santa Cruz and
a Washington DC based consultant, which clients including Hewlett-Packard, World Bank, Bell laboratories,
The White House and the State Department. For the last ten years he has focused on the broad social
science issues relevant to rethinking humanity's relationship to nature. Cross posted from
the Institute for New Economic Thinking website
With Adam Smith, and hints before in Ricardo and others, economics took the path of treating the
economy as a natural object that should not be interfered with by the state. This fit the Newtonian
ethos of the age: science was great, science was mathematics; science was true, right and good.
But along the way the discussion in, for example, Montaigne and Machiavelli - about the powers
of imagination, myth, emotions, sentiment, human relations and community - was abandoned by the economists.
(Adam Smith had written his Theory of Moral Sentiments 20 years earlier and sort of left
it behind, though the Wealth of Nations is still concerned with human well-being.) Gibbon's
Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire was published in 1776, the same year as Smith's
Wealth , but hardly read today by most economists.
In philosophy and the arts (romanticism among others) there was great engagement in these issues
economics was trying to avoid. But that philosophy and art criticism have not been widely read for
many years.
The effect of ignoring the human side of lives was to undermine the social perspective of the
"political," by merging it with the individually focused "interest." So, instead of exploring the
inner structure of interest (or later utility or preference), or community feeling and the impact
of culture, these were assumed to be irrelevant to the mechanics of the market. Politics, having
to do with interest groups and power arrangements, is more vague and harder to model than economic
activity.
Those who wanted economics to be a science were motivated by the perception that "being scientific"
was appreciated by the society of the time, and was the path to rock-solid truth. But the move towards
economics as a science also happened to align with a view of the landed and the wealthy that the
economy was working for them, so don't touch it. We get the equation, embracing science = conservative.
This is still with us because of the implication that the market is made by god or nature rather
than being socially constructed. Since economics is the attempt at a description of the economy,
it was more or less locked in to the naturalist approach, which ignores things like class and ownership
and treated capital as part of economic flow rather than as a possession that was useable for social
and political power.
Even now, economics still continues as if it were part of the age of Descartes and avoids most
social, historical and philosophical thought about the nature of man and society. Names like Shaftesbury
and Puffendorf, very much read in their time, are far less known now than Hobbes, Descartes, Ricardo,
Mill and Keynes. Karl Polanyi is much less well known than Hayek. We do not learn of the social history
such as the complex interplay in Viennese society among those who were classmates and colleagues
such as Hayek, Gombrich, Popper and Drucker. The impact of Viennese culture is not known to many
economists.
The result is an economics that supports an economy that is out of control because the feedback
loops through society and its impact of the quality of life - and resentment - are not recognized
in a dehumanized economics, and so can't have a feedback correcting effect.
The solution, however, is not to look for simplicity, but to embrace a kind of complexity that
honors nature, humans, politics, and the way they are dealt with in philosophy, arts, investigative
reporting, anthropology and history. Because the way forward cannot be a simple projection of the
past. We are in more danger than that.
Anthony Pagden, in Why the Enlightenment is Still Important , writes that before the
enlightenment, late feudalism and the Renaissance, "The scholastics had made their version of the
natural law the basis for a universal moral and political code that demanded that all human beings
be regarded in the same way, no matter what their culture or their beliefs. It also demanded that
human beings respect each other because they share a common urge to 'come together,' and it required
them to offer to each other, even to total strangers, help in times of need, to recognize 'that amity
among men is part of the natural law.' Finally, while Hobbes and Grotius had accepted the existence
of only one natural right - the right to self-preservation - the scholastics had allowed for a wide
range of them." -
Pagen also writes, "The Enlightenment, and in particular that portion with which I am concerned,
was in part, as we shall now see, an attempt to recover something of this vision of a unified and
essentially benign humanity, of a potentially cosmopolitan world, without also being obliged to accept
the theologians' claim that this could only make sense as part of the larger plan of a well-meaning,
if deeply inscrutable, deity."
But as Pagen shows, that effort was overcome by market, technical and financial interests.
The reason this is so important is that the simple and ethical view in Smith (and many other classical
economists if we were to read them) that it was wrong to let the poor starve because of manipulated
grain prices, was replaced by a more mechanical view of society that denied human intelligence except
as calculators of self interest. This is a return to the Hobbesian world leading to a destructive
society: climate, inequality, corruption. Today, the poor are hemmed in by so many regulations and
procedures (real estate, education, police) that people are now starved. Not having no food, but
having bad food, which along with all the new forms of privation add up to a seriously starved life,
is not perceived by a blinded society to be suffering. Economics in its current form - most economics
papers and college courses - do not touch the third rail of class, or such pain.
Interesting. I've been reading (thanks to an intro from NC) Mark Blyth's "Austerity" and, thus
far, seems to imply, if not outright state, that Adam Smith was quite suspicious of government
intervention in the economy. The "can't live with it, can't live without it, don't want to pay
for it" perspective. The bullet points you've listed above seem to refute that notion.
Adam Smith tried to make a moral science out of what his class wanted to hear. If he had actually
gone into those factories of his time, he might have had a different opinion of what labour was
and how there was no "natural state" for wages, but only what was imposed on people who couldn't
fight back. If he had gotten out of his ivory tower for a while, he might have had a different
opinion of what those owners of stock were doing. He also might have had different views on trade
if he could have seen what was happening to the labourers in the textile industries in France.
And I could go on. But instead he created a fantasy that has been the basis for all economic thinking
since.
In the same way, neoliberals are no different. They aren't bad people – they just see their
policies as right and just because those policies are working well for them and the people in
their class, and I don't think they really understand why it doesn't work for others – maybe,
like Adam Smith, they think that is the "natural state" ..
Sorry, but there needs to be a Copernican Revolution in Economics just as there was in science.
We have to realize that maybe Adam Smith was wrong – and I know that will be hard – just as it
was hard for people to realize that the Earth wasn't the center of the universe.
Since I am retired, maybe I will go back to school, hold my nose and cover my lying eyes long
enough to finish that Economics degree, so that I can get good access to all the other windows
in Economics. I can't really believe I am the only person thinking this way – there must be some
bright people out there who have come to similar conclusions and I would dearly love to know who
they are.
Read the first sentence of the Theory of Moral Sentiments – it makes an assumption which
is the foundation of all of Adam Smith. He asserted that all men are moral. Morality in economics
is the invisible hand creating order like gravity in astronomy. Unfortunately, Adam Smith's assumption
is false or at least not true enough to form a sound foundation for useful economic theory.
But "morality" means different things to different people. Smith only saw the morality
of his own class. For example, I am sure a wealthy man would consider it very moral to accumulate
as much money as he could so that he would be seen by his peers as a good and worthy man who cares
for his future generations and the well being of his class – he doesn't see this accumulation
as amoral – whilst a poor man may think that kind of accumulation is amoral because he thinks
that money could be better used provide for those without the basic needs to survive
I've read a fair amount of Wealth of Nations although far from all of it and my take was that
Smith was describing the economic system of his time as it was , not necessarily as it
should or must be. Smith gets a bad rap from the left due to many people over the last 200+ years
hearing what they wanted to hear from him to justify their own actions rather than what he actually
said.
I'm cherry picking a bit here since I don't have the time to go through several hundred pages,
but I think Smith might actually agree with you about the plight of labor and he was well aware
of what the ownership class was up to –
"People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but
the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices."
there needs to be a Copernican Revolution in Economics
One of Steve Keen's favourite analogies is astronomy. Neoclassical economics is like Ptolemy's
epicycles; assume the Earth is at the centre, and that the planets orbit in circles and
simply by adding little circles-epicycles-you can accurately describe the observed motion of the
planets. The right epicycles in the right places can describe any motion. But they can't
explain anything, they add nothing to understanding, they subtract from it, because they
are false but give the illusion of knowledge. Drop the assumptions and you can begin to get somewhere.
And that is exactly what Marx did, but then got himself sidetracked by trying to find (or create)
support for his labor theory of value.
Actually most of what he writes in Capital basically refutes said theory, instead hinting at
energy being the core source of value (how much food/fuel is needed to produce one unit, basically).
Steve Keen seems to have latched onto this in the last year or so, pointing out that all
production is driven by energy. And the energy comes ultimately from the sun. Either it is turned
into production via feeding workers, or by fueling machinery (by burning hydrocarbons extracted
from plant and animal remains).
Since words have somewhat flexible boundaries, it's hard to tell from what perspective this
response is looking at the history of science. Characterizing cybernetics as mechanistic would
require an unusually broad definition of "mechanistic". Even a superficial reading of Norbert
Wiener, Warren McCulloch, W. Ross Ashby, or any of the other early contributors to the discipline
will make one aware that they were explicitly trying to address the limitations of simplistic
mechanistic thinking.
In the related discipline, General Systems Theory, von Bertalanffy expressly argued that we
should take our cues from the organic living world to understand complex systems. With the introduction
of Second Order Cybernetics by Heinz von Foerster, Margaret Mead, Gregory Bateson and others,
the role of a sentient observer in describing the system in which he/she is embedded becomes the
focus of attention. Bateson was an original participant with many of the people mentioned above
in the Macy conferences where cybernetics was first introduced. The bulk of his work was a direct
attack on the mechanistic view of the natural world.
Of course, many writers treat cybernetics, General Systems Theory, and their related disciplines
as pseudoscientific. But those are typically people who are firmly committed to mechanistic explanations.
I have a question about a similar thing. Simon Kuznetz is credited as someone who has invented
modern concept of GDP and he revolutionized the field of economics with statistical method (econometrics).
However, Kuznets , in the same report in which he presented modern concept of GDP to US congress,
wrote following(from wikipedia):-
"The valuable capacity of the human mind to simplify a complex situation in a compact characterization
becomes dangerous when not controlled in terms of definitely stated criteria. With quantitative
measurements especially, the definiteness of the result suggests, often misleadingly, a precision
and simplicity in the outlines of the object measured. Measurements of national income are subject
to this type of illusion and resulting abuse, especially since they deal with matters that are
the center of conflict of opposing social groups where the effectiveness of an argument is often
contingent upon oversimplification.
All these qualifications upon estimates of national income as an index of productivity are just
as important when income measurements are interpreted from the point of view of economic welfare.
But in the latter case additional difficulties will be suggested to anyone who wants to penetrate
below the surface of total figures and market values. Economic welfare cannot be adequately measured
unless the personal distribution of income is known. And no income measurement undertakes to estimate
the reverse side of income, that is, the intensity and unpleasantness of effort going into the
earning of income. The welfare of a nation can, therefore, scarcely be inferred from a measurement
of national income as defined above.
Distinctions must be kept in mind between quantity and quality of growth, between costs and returns,
and between the short and long run. Goals for more growth should specify more growth of what and
for what."
So , my question is why economists keep treating GDP as some scared metric when its creator
himself deems it not reliable? Why all qualifications about GDP by Kuznetz is ignored by most
of the economists nowadays?
"So , my question is why economists keep treating GDP as some scared metric when its creator
himself deems it not reliable? Why all qualifications about GDP by Kuznetz is ignored by most
of the economists nowadays?"@Vedant
" Economic welfare cannot be adequately measured unless the personal distribution of income
is known. And no income measurement undertakes to estimate the reverse side of income, that is,
the intensity and unpleasantness of effort going into the earning of income."
That is your explanation right there. Large abstract numbers such as GDP obscure social
issues such as "the personal distribution of income." and the effort that goes into creating that
income. Large abstract numbers obscure the moral dimension that must be a part of all economic
discussion and are obscured by statistics and sciencism. As the genius of Mark Twain put it, "There
are lies, damned lies and statistics." Beware the credentialed classes!
Interesting. There is a great book by John Dupré called 'Human Nature and the Limits of Science
(2001)", which tackles this subject in a general way: the facts that taking a mechanistic model
as a paradigm for diverse areas of science is problematic and leads to myopia.
He describes it
as a form of 'scientific imperialism', stretching the use of concepts from one area of science
to other areas and leading to bad results (because there are, you know, relevant differences).
As a prime example, he mentions economics. (When reading EConned;s chapter of the science ( 'science')
of economics, I was struck by the similar argument.)
Science does not imply only mechanistic models, which may be appropriate for physics, but not
economics. Science is a method of obtaining sound knowledge by iterative interaction between facts
and theory.
Just because equilibrium is shitty mechanistic model to try and stamp onto economics doesn't
mean that all scientific modeling of economics futile. Soddy just about derived MMT from the conservation
of energy in 1921.
Soddy was a scientist. He should have written as a scientist with definitions, logic and rigour,
but he wrote like a philosopher, full of waffle and unsubstantiated assertions like other economists.
It is unscientific to apply universal laws discovered in physics and chemistry to economics without
proving by observations that those laws also apply to economics.
Soddy needed to have developed a scientific methodology for economics first, before stating
his opinions which are scientifically unproven like most economic propositions.
I get irritated by radical free-marketeers who when presented with a social problem tend to
dogmatically assert that "The free market wills it," as if that ended all discussion. It is as
if the free market was their God who must always be obeyed. Unlike Abraham, we do not need to
obey if we feel that the answer is unjust.
Gibbon's Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire was published in 1776, the same year
as Smith's Wealth, but hardly read today by most economists.
Other than as a reflection of the sentiments of the time Gibbon was writing in, historians
don't spend much time reading it either. The moralistic explanations for the disintegration of
the (Western) Roman Empire were long ago discarded by all serious analysis of late antiquity.
More practical explanations, especially the loss of the North African bread basket to the Vandals,
are presented in the scholarly work these days.
That book of Gibbon's is an incredible achievement. If it is not read by historians today,
it is their loss. Its moral explanations, out of fashion today, are actually quite compelling.
They become more so when read with de Tocqueville's views of the moral foundations of American
township democracy and their transmission into the behavior, and assumptions, of New Englanders,
whose views formed the basis of the federal republican constitution.
The loss of the breadbasket was problematical, too. And it may be that no civilization, however
young and virile, could withstand the migrations forever, as they withstood or absorbed them,
with a few exceptions, for eight hundred years. But the progressive losses to the migratory tribes
may have been a symptom of the real, "moral," cause of the decline.
After all, the Romans did not always have that breadbasket; indeed, they had to conquer it
to get it, along with the rest of the mighty and ancient civilizations of the Mediterranean and
beyond, using the strengths derived from the mores of their martial republic. The story of the
Punic Wars is a morality play in history, as much as anything else. But the main problem was the
dilution of the Roman republican mores into a provincial stew.
And after that nice detached remark, about which historians can surely natter on in the abstract,
I'll toss in this completely anti-historicist piece of nonsense: I think it's actually much the
same problem the Americans are having today, as the mores of the founders have dissolved into
the idea that the nation is about national government, centralized administration, world leadership,
global domination through military might, and imperialist capitalism. That is not a national ethic
that leads to lasting nobility of purpose and moral strength-as George Washington and Ike Eisenhower
both pointed out.
Dendrochronology ( tree ring dating & organic history ) has established a wholly new rationale
for the termination of the Roman Empire the re-boot of the Chinese and Japanese cultures and
the death of a slew of Meso-American cultures.
From 536-539AD the entire planet suffered a staggering holocaust. Krakatoa blew up - ejecting so much dust that it triggered a 'nuclear winter' that lasted through
those years.
The Orientals actually heard the blasts recognized that they emminated from the Indonesian
islands. ( Well, at least to the south. ) The erruption and the weather was duly recorded by Court
scribes.
Roman accounts assert that 90% of the population of Constantinople died or fled. ( mostly died
) The Emperor and his wife were at the dockside ready to flee - when she talked him back off the
boat. Her reasoning was sound: it's Hell everywhere. He won't have any authority once he leaves
his imperial guard.
It was this period that ended agriculture in North Africa. ( Algeria-Tunisia ) The drought
blew all of the top soil into the Med. It was an irreversible tragedy.
This super drought triggered the events in Beowulf - and the exodus of the Petrans from Petra.
They marched off to Mecca and Medina both locations long known to have mountain springs with
deep water. The entire Arabian population congregated there.
This was the founding population amongst which Mohammed was raised many years later.
The true reason that Islam swept through Araby and North Africa was that both lands were still
largely de-populated. The die-off was so staggering that one can't wrap ones mind around it.
Period art is so bleak that modern historians discounted it until the tree ring record established
that this trauma happened on a global scale.
Or throw them out! I remember the very first thing I was taught in Economics 101 about supply
and demand and how they would balance at an equilibrium price. It didn't take much thinking to
realize that there is no equilibrium price and that an equilibrium price was exactly the last
thing suppliers or demanders wanted, and that the price of a good depended on who had the most
power to set the price. Yet, we had to accept the "supply and demand theory" as coming directly
from God. It's as if we were taught in Chemistry that the only acceptable theory of bonding possible
was the hydrogen-oxygen bond and even though we could see with our own eyes that hydrogen also
bonds to carbon, we should throw that out because it is an aberration from "acceptable theory" ..
Yes, coming from God; Platonic, like a Form. Economics is written in Forms, like "homo economicus"
and "the efficient market." But we live in the Cave, where the markets that humans actually make
are sad imitations of the Forms in the textbooks.
There's a lot good in the post, I think; noting the important philosophical underpinnings and
challenges to Economics, and particularly in making it a moral, and therefore political and "social"
science. But it's great to see where people's use of "incantatory names from the past" is called
out by the curator. It's a pet peeve.
Economics is the last "science" to hold onto the notion of equilibrium. The rest has moved on to complex systems/chaos theory, first demonstrated in meteorology.
Trying to apply complex systems to economics have been the goal of Steve Keen's work for several
decades now.
In college I couldn't help but notice the similarities between modern economic theory and the
control theory taught in engineering. Not such a great fit though, society is not a mechanical
governor.
Ha. That's the same thing that got economists so excited. Things is, an engineering student
attempting to model a simple system with two moving parts cares a great deal about whether the
moving parts are connected by a spring, or ball screw, or shock absorber, or lever, or even invisible
stuff like a temperature gradient when coming up with the system math model. Economists seem to
think wtf is the difference?
Next, if the math gets a bit unwieldy as the number of moving parts increase, which it does
in a hurry, they decide to simplify the math. Next, assume they have perfect sensors for everything and system lag can assumed to be zero
for talking purposes, and in research papers too. Next, hysteresis effects due to bent parts, leaky valves and stretched springs are assumed
not to exist. Congress has the "Highway Bill" thingy to address that.
Next, the guy with the control knob will do the "right thing". Or better yet, a "market" is
doing the control knob. There could be "intermediaries", but these are modeled as zero loss pieces
of golden wire and gold plated connectors.
Finally, money comes from batteries and there is no such thing in the real world like "shorts",
"open circuits", or "semiconductors" with their quantum tunneling properties.
Thanks for this, and especially the heads up about the author's take on Smith. This is exactly
what I'm on about. Not only are there more ways of knowing than the infamous mechanical, it itself
should've died long ago.
The author stresses economics is stuck in the age of Descartes. The history of Newton's refutation
of Descartes's mechanical philosophy is very interesting. Yes, refutation. Descartes's mechanical
philosophy is as dead as a dodo. So why does it still plague us? Obviously, because thinking of
and acting on nature as if it were all just one great big machine works at getting you paid, much
better than that wishy-washy humanism crap. /f (facetious).
I used to go on and on against reducing everything to mechanisms, and I largely blamed Newton.
I was wrong.
I've spent an hour trying to boil this down. Ain't happenin. Apologies for the length.
The background is the so-called "mechanical philosophy" – mechanical science in modern terminology.
This doctrine, originating with Galileo and his contemporaries, held that the world is a machine,
operating by mechanical principles, much like the remarkable devices that were being constructed
by skilled artisans of the day and that stimulated the scientific imagination much as computers
do today; devices with gears, levers, and other mechanical components, interacting through
direct contact with no mysterious forces relating them. The doctrine held that the entire world
is similar: it could in principle be constructed by a skilled artisan, and was in fact created
by a super-skilled artisan. The doctrine was intended to replace the resort to "occult properties"
on the part of the neoscholastics: their appeal to mysterious sympathies and antipathies, to
forms flitting through the air as the means of perception, the idea that rocks fall and steam
rises because they are moving to their natural place, and similar notions that were mocked
by the new science.
The mechanical philosophy provided the very criterion for intelligibility in the sciences.
Galileo insisted that theories are intelligible, in his words, only if we can "duplicate [their
posits] by means of appropriate artificial devices." The same conception, which became the
reigning orthodoxy, was maintained and developed by the other leading figures of the scientific
revolution: Descartes, Leibniz, Huygens, Newton, and others.
Today Descartes is remembered mainly for his philosophical reflections, but he was primarily
a working scientist and presumably thought of himself that way, as his contemporaries did.
His great achievement, he believed, was to have firmly established the mechanical philosophy,
to have shown that the world is indeed a machine, that the phenomena of nature could be accounted
for in mechanical terms in the sense of the science of the day. But he discovered phenomena
that appeared to escape the reach of mechanical science. Primary among them, for Descartes,
was the creative aspect of language use, a capacity unique to humans that cannot be duplicated
by machines and does not exist among animals, which in fact were a variety of machines, in
his conception.
As a serious and honest scientist, Descartes therefore invoked a new principle to accommodate
these non-mechanical phenomena, a kind of creative principle. In the substance philosophy of
the day, this was a new substance, res cogitans, which stood alongside of res extensa. This
dichotomy constitutes the mind-body theory in its scientific version. Then followed further
tasks: to explain how the two substances interact and to devise experimental tests to determine
whether some other creature has a mind like ours. These tasks were undertaken by Descartes
and his followers, notably Géraud de Cordemoy; and in the domain of language, by the logician-grammarians
of Port Royal and the tradition of rational and philosophical grammar that succeeded them,
not strictly Cartesian but influenced by Cartesian ideas.
All of this is normal science, and like much normal science, it was soon shown to be incorrect.
Newton demonstrated that one of the two substances does not exist: res extensa. The properties
of matter, Newton showed, escape the bounds of the mechanical philosophy. To account for them
it is necessary to resort to interaction without contact. Not surprisingly, Newton was condemned
by the great physicists of the day for invoking the despised occult properties of the neo-scholastics.
Newton largely agreed. He regarded action at a distance, in his words, as "so great an Absurdity,
that I believe no Man who has in philosophical matters a competent Faculty of thinking, can
ever fall into it." Newton however argued that these ideas, though absurd, were not "occult"
in the traditional despised sense. Nevertheless, by invoking this absurdity, we concede that
we do not understand the phenomena of the material world. To quote one standard scholarly source,
"By `understand' Newton still meant what his critics meant: `understand in mechanical terms
of contact action'."
It is commonly believed that Newton showed that the world is a machine, following mechanical
principles, and that we can therefore dismiss "the ghost in the machine," the mind, with appropriate
ridicule. The facts are the opposite: Newton exorcised the machine, leaving the ghost intact.
The mind-body problem in its scientific form did indeed vanish as unformulable, because one
of its terms, body, does not exist in any intelligible form. Newton knew this very well, and
so did his great contemporaries.
And later:
Similar conclusions are commonplace in the history of science. In the mid-twentieth century,
Alexander Koyré observed that Newton demonstrated that "a purely materialistic pattern of nature
is utterly impossible (and a purely materialistic or mechanistic physics, such as that of Lucretius
or of Descartes, is utterly impossible, too)"; his mathematical physics required the "admission
into the body of science of incomprehensible and inexplicable `facts' imposed up on us by empiricism,"
by what is observed and our conclusions from these observations.
So the wrong guy was declared the winner of Descartes vs. Newton, and we've been living with
the resultant Frankenstein's monster of an economy running rampant all this time. And the mad
"scientists" who keep it alive, who think themselves so "realistic" and "pragmatic" in fact are
atavists ignorant of the last few centuries of science. But they do get paid, whereas I (relatively)
don't.
Alexander Koyré observed that Newton demonstrated that "a purely materialistic pattern
of nature is utterly impossible (and a purely materialistic or mechanistic physics, such as
that of Lucretius or of Descartes, is utterly impossible, too)"
I think that Newton considered phenomena like gravity, magnetism, and optics to be non-material,
perhaps even spiritual, and separate from matter. Modern physicists would disagree, and would
consider gravity and electro-magnetism to be purely material phenomena. Newton didn't prove that
the world is non-mechanical; he showed that objects do not need to touch for them to have influence
on each other.
It is still quite possible that there are non-material phenomena, but those would be separate
from gravity and electro-magnetism, which Newton considered non-material.
Are all products of the brain. I don't see how the results of the interaction of electrical
impulses and chemicals are non-material. Magic is not an explanation for anything.
So Newton formulated his theories because of his belief in Alchemy and not, as I had thought,
despite it.
Discussions like this are what make this site so great.
All modern economic thought ( 1900+ ) has been corrupted by the arrogance of Taylor's Time
& Motion Studies. The essence of which is that bean counters can revolutionize economic output by statistics
and basic accounting.
AKA Taylorism.
Big Government is Taylorism as practiced.
At bottom, it arrogantly assumes that if you can count it, you can optimise it.
The fact is that 'things' are too complicated.
Taylor's principles only work in a micro environment. His work started in machine shops, and
at that level of simplicity, still applies.
Its abstractions and assumptions break down elsewhere.
MOST economic models in use today are the grandsons of Taylorism.
They are also the analytic engines that have driven the global economy to the edge of the cliff.
For my penny's worth the sentence "Today, the poor are hemmed in by so many regulations and
procedures (real estate, education, police) that people are now starved" reveals the main problem.
Too many of the most lucrative parts of every national economy have been closed off by politicians
and reserved for their friends.
DAVID BARSAMIAN: One of the heroes of the current right-wing revival is Adam Smith. You've
done some pretty impressive research on Smith that has excavated a lot of information that's
not coming out. You've often quoted him describing the "vile maxim of the masters of mankind:
all for ourselves and nothing for other people."
NOAM CHOMSKY: I didn't do any research at all on Smith. I just read him. There's no research.
Just read it. He's pre-capitalist, a figure of the Enlightenment. What we would call capitalism
he despised.
People read snippets of Adam Smith, the few phrases they teach in school. Everybody
reads the first paragraph of The Wealth of Nations where he talks about how wonderful the division
of labor is. But not many people get to the point hundreds of pages later, where he says that
division of labor will destroy human beings and turn people into creatures as stupid and ignorant
as it is possible for a human being to be.
And therefore in any civilized society the government
is going to have to take some measures to prevent division of labor from proceeding to its
limits.
And here is a link to Adam Smith's poignant denunciation of division of labour:
This mention of division of labor is, as Chomsky points out, left out of the index of the University
of Chicago scholarly edition! Of George Stigler's introduction Chomsky claims, "It's likely he
never opened The Wealth of Nations. Just about everything he said about the book was completely
false."
I recommend reading the entire paragraph at the link above. Smith writes:
"The man whose whole life is spent in performing a few simple operations, of which the effects
are perhaps always the same, or very nearly the same, has no occasion to exert his understanding
or to exercise his invention in finding out expedients for removing difficulties which never
occur. He naturally loses, therefore, the habit of such exertion, and generally becomes as
stupid and ignorant as it is possible for a human creature to become. But in every improved
and civilized society this is the state into which the labouring poor, that is, the great body
of the people, must necessarily fall, unless government takes some pains to prevent it.
"
"... My main problem with the site, though, isn't aesthetic. It's the idea that the public will buy a "just the facts" approach. Many readers will suspect that what they're getting is not a simple recounting of incontrovertible facts, but a mix of received wisdom, theory, and carefully cloaked ideology. And they won't entirely be wrong about that. ..."
EconoFact is a non-partisan publication designed to bring key facts and incisive analysis to the
national debate on economic and social policies. It is written by leading academic economists from
across the country who belong to the EconoFact Network...
Our mission at EconoFact is to provide data, analysis and historical experience in a dispassionate
manner...Our guiding ethos is a belief that well meaning people emphasizing different values can
arrive at different policy conclusions. However, if in the debate we as a society can't agree on the
relevant facts, then the nation itself loses a common base for constructive debate and policy will
suffer.
EconoFact does not represent any partisan, personal or ideological point of view...Our network of
economists might disagree with each other on policy recommendations, but all will similarly rely on
widely agreed upon facts in their analysis.
My main problem with the site, though, isn't aesthetic. It's the idea that the public will
buy a "just the facts" approach. Many readers will suspect that what they're getting is not a simple
recounting of incontrovertible facts, but a mix of received wisdom, theory, and carefully cloaked
ideology. And they won't entirely be wrong about that.
"... Why should anyone in the working or middle class believe that voting for a Democrat is in their interest given the way in which the Democratic Party has been co-opted by the neoliberal ideology that brought us the draconian social welfare and irresponsible financial deregulatory legislation of the 1990s that led to the Crash of 2008? ..."
"... Why would they rally around a candidate who had lost the 2008 primary and who could barely win in 2016 without the party's rigging the primaries in her favor? ..."
"... Why would their candidate refuse to offer any kind of coherent message around the issue that propelled her two Democratic predecessors into office--it's the economy, stupid? ..."
"... As Blackford says, "the main story is the incompetence of the Democrats." The only question is whether their incompetence is willful or not. ..."
"... Wall Street supplied the money. ..."
"... LOL! A centrist party that has been triangulating -- chasing oligarch tail -- for decades. The 2018 election is going to provide me some excellent schadenfreude. ..."
False symmetry may be a part
of the story, but the main story is the incompetence of the Democrats. There was a 20
percentage point shift away from Democrats in Michigan from 2008 to 2016, a14 pp shift in
Pennsylvania, a 24 pp shift in Iowa, a 15 pp shift in Ohio, and a 24 pp shift in Indiana.
Does anyone really believe these kinds of shifts from Obama to Trump and third party
candidates can be explained in terms of racism and bigotry or voters failing to understand
that they were voting against their own interests because of Republican flimflam?
The real question is: Why should those who shifted from Obama to Trump and third parties
have believed it would have been in their interest to vote for Hillary given her ties to
Wall Street and the way in which the Democrats abandoned home owners and bailed out Wall
Street during the crisis?
Why should anyone in the working or middle class believe that voting for a Democrat is
in their interest given the way in which the Democratic Party has been co-opted by the
neoliberal ideology that brought us the draconian social welfare and irresponsible
financial deregulatory legislation of the 1990s that led to the Crash of 2008?
Re: "Do you think Clinton is more Wall Street than Trump?"
It's not about what I think. It's about what the voters
think. For what it's worth, I think it is quite clear that
those voters who voted for Obama in 2008 and switched to
Trump in 2016 are grasping at straws, and they did that
because they saw no hope in voting for the Democratic Party.
As for: "Clinton staved off a crash in the 90s by high
taxes." I think you are a bit confused on this. Not only was
the deregulation signed into law by Clinton responsible for
the Crash in 2008, his appointment of Greenspan facilitated
the dotcom and telecom bubbles of the 1990s, the bursting of
which led to the 2001 recession:
http://www.rweconomics.com/htm/Ch_1.htm
The real question is why do "voters want the free lunch of
tax cuts"? The reason is that Democratic Party, starting with
the Clintons, bought into the neoliberal ideology championed
by the Democratic Leadership Council and have refused to
challenge the Republican's free lunch arguments and tell the
voters that government programs are essential to our
economic, social, and political wellbeing and that they have
to be payid for. I believe that I have explained this quit
well in:
http://www.rweconomics.com/Deficit.htm
You really have to wonder if Democrats are trying to lose.
Why else would the party's elite rally around a candidate
who had huge negatives and try to block anyone else from
running?
Why would they rally around a candidate who had lost the
2008 primary and who could barely win in 2016 without the
party's rigging the primaries in her favor?
Why would they refuse to sack an inept congressional
leadership that had lost three straight elections?
Why would their candidate refuse to offer any kind of
coherent message around the issue that propelled her two
Democratic predecessors into office--it's the economy,
stupid?
Why would the pigheadedly refuse to do a post mortem of
their failure and insist on blaming Putin instead?
As Blackford says, "the main story is the incompetence of
the Democrats." The only question is whether their
incompetence is willful or not.
"Other than a insignificant number of insane people, no one
voted fro Obama and then voted for Trump"
LOL!!! According
to EMichael, lots of Rust Belt voters must be
insane...exactly the kind of disdain and disparagement that
made them switch their vote in the first place.
EMichael, ever the partisan hack, still can't come to
terms with the fact that Obama and Hillary ignored the
concerns working class voters...the real reason they voted
for Trump.
Could EMichael's delusional denial be characterized as
insanity? Or just a partisan hack ineptly doing his job?
The reason I post all this BS is that as far as I can see,
the only hope for the country is for the DAs in the
Democratic Party to wake up and face reality.
I fear that if Democrats' do not wake up and they continue
down the same neoliberal path they have been traveling since
Carter--a path that led directly to Trump--even if we survive
Trump and Democrats do regain power again, the demigod that
follows the disaster that results is going to be even worse
than Trump:
http://www.rweconomics.com/LTLGAD.htm
"There is no fun in being in the middle, yet that is where
the ability to wield power and effectively governing resides:
in the middle. It's not pretty. it's not graceful. America
exists as it does today only because we have been able to
compromise for a long time. It's that ability to comprise
that has been lost in great volume."
You seem to be missing
my point: TRUMP IS PRESIDENT!
The things we are taking from the right DON'T WORK!
LOL!
A centrist party that has been triangulating -- chasing
oligarch tail -- for decades.
The 2018 election is going to
provide me some excellent schadenfreude.
Not exactly: "even if we survive Trump and Democrats do
regain power again, the demigod that follows the disaster
that results is going to be even worse than Trump."
If a
Democrat follows Trump, his/her job will be to normalize and
put a bipartisan imprimatur on what Trump did. That was
Obama's role on many issues, including torture, Guantanamo,
and NSA spying.
Getting along is exactly what Bill Clinton did and it led
to 2008. It's also what Pelosi and Obama did and it led to
the loss of congress. It's also what more-of-the-same Hillary
promised to do, and it led to Trump.(
http://www.rweconomics.com/blame.htm
)
Fat chance! "the only hope to avoid another disaster in the
future is for the Democrats to move the center back to a
point where it is possible avoid an even worse disaster."
The DNC is adamant about NOT learning any lessons from their
election debacle. But they are counting on Republicans to
screw up so that they can have their turn in power.
"Economics Upside Down" or Why "Free Markets" Don't Exist
This is an instructive interview with Ha-Joon Chang, author of the new book "23
Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism." He debunks some widely accepted
beliefs, such at the existence of "free markets" or the necessity of "free
trade" for the development of capitalism.
Enjoy!
Topics: China, Corporate governance, Credit markets, Free markets and their
discontents, Globalization, The dismal science
Email This Post Posted by Yves Smith at 12:09 am
11 Comments " Links to this post
11 Comments:
Charles Frith says:
June 15, 2011 at 2:25 am
Bravo.
Reply
Septeus7 says:
June 15, 2011 at 5:57 am
Ha-Joon Chang is one of the best real world economists out there and I find it
sad that Asians now have to teach Americans about traditional American system
development and industrial policies but we should take any help we can get at
this point.
When will we stop with these idiotic so-called "free market" economics and start
understanding that
if we run away from our
responsibility to look out for our own economic interest politically then we
will have our lunch taken by those "free market" types pouring billions into
political influence because they obviously don't believe a word of their own
faux-economic ideology?
Reply
Another Gordon says:
June 15, 2011 at 6:22 am
An excellent book, nicely structured and easy to read.
However, he does leave out a couple of things, for example that competition does
not always lead to lower prices and/or better outcomes as the neoliberal fantasy
has it.
Competition only works when it costs less than its benefits. Yet it is often
horribly expensive and the benefits often modest at best.
Reply
Iolaus says:
June 15, 2011 at 11:02 am
Ha-Joon says "You can't have slaves." But we do have slavery, right here.
Reply
Anonymous Jones says:
June 15, 2011 at 12:42 pm
What is truly amazing is that something this obvious (that all markets are
regulated by some means, and that whether you prefer those means versus others
is almost entirely based on outcomes rather than procedures) is such a fringe
idea.
I was watching the Bobby Fischer documentary on HBO, and it struck me how easy
it must be slip into madness living in this completely insane world. There are
so many obvious fallacies you must accept to "fit into" normal society (the
existence not just of a god, but the particular consensus "God" of your
community; the belief that your community (oh, let's say America) always has
good intentions and could never (gasp) be using its might to enrich the people
running the place; the weird idea that "honor" for samurai or other military
types is selflessly serving the elite who are exploiting the rest of society).
To be thought sane, one's insanity must match others' insanity.
To investigate the world, to examine the BS that you have been told over and
over, has the potential to completely untether the psyche. Look at all the
rampant conspiracy theorists on this site. Are they really different (in kind,
not in specifics) from the "Protocols" crazies or the bilderberg lunatics or the
"end of the world" preachers? Another thing that is so amazing is that you read
history and watch documentaries and you realize these crazies are doing almost
*exactly* the same thing as someone else in another generation 50 years ago, 100
years ago, 150 years ago, 1000 years ago. Fischer himself was once in the thrall
of an "end of the world" preacher who was doing almost exactly what Harold
Camping just did and then Fischer moved onto this insane "Protocols" fixation.
I guess people are just incapable of reflecting on themselves enough to see
this. Or I guess it would make them as crazy as Fischer if they ever did.
Reply
Just Tired says:
June 15, 2011 at 3:13 pm
Read Eric Fromm's, The Sane Society. In the 1950's, Fromm recognized that a
whole society could be mentally ill and those who were thought to be out of the
mainstream were really the sane ones. He also raised the question to the mental
health profession as to who were the proper ones to treat given that reality. It
is almost as if the mental health takes a kind of democratic approach to the
definition of mental illness, i.e. the majority of the population was defined as
sane by definition. Fromm argued that the approach should be more objective.
Reply
Foppe says:
June 15, 2011 at 5:25 pm
subjectivity and objectivity are meaningless notions once you start 'diagnosing'
entire societies as mentally ill or diseased. What is perceived as either is
done so through consensus formation; this cannot meaningfully happen if you
exclude the majority of the population from weighing in on the basis of an
argument that they are mentally ill. (I do not find Fromm's vocabulary very
helpful in this case)
Reply
LifelongLib says:
June 15, 2011 at 5:00 pm
Conspiracy theories are often twisted versions of things that are really
happening. Mark of the Beast, without which you can't buy or sell? Try getting a
plane ticket or renting a hotel room without a major credit card. World ruled by
alien reptiles? Some kid joins the army to get money for college, and ends up
getting blown apart 10,000 miles from home. Sure sounds like something alien
reptiles would set up. Actual human beings wouldn't do those things to each
other, right?
Reply
Fed Up :-) says:
June 16, 2011 at 5:05 am
How have individuals been affected by the technological advances of recent
years?
Here is the answer to this question given by a philosopher-psychiatrist, Dr.
Erich Fromm:
Our contemporary Western society, in spite of its material, intellectual and
political progress, is increasingly less conducive to mental health, and tends
to undermine the inner security, happiness, reason and the capacity for love in
the individual; it tends to turn him into an automaton who pays for his human
failure with increasing mental sickness, and with despair hidden under a frantic
drive for work and so-called pleasure.
Our "increasing mental sickness" may find expression in neurotic symptoms.
These symptoms are conspicuous and extremely distressing. But "let us beware,"
says Dr. Fromm, "of defining mental hygiene as the prevention of symptoms.
Symptoms as such are not our enemy, but our friend; where there are symptoms
there is conflict, and conflict always indicates that the forces of life which
strive for integration and happiness are still fighting." The really hopeless
victims of mental illness are to be found among those who appear to be most
normal. "Many of them are normal because they are so well adjusted to our mode
of existence, because their human voice has been silenced so early in their
lives, that they do not even struggle or suffer or develop symptoms as the
neurotic does." They are normal not in what may be called the absolute sense of
the word; they are normal only in relation to a profoundly abnormal society.
Their perfect adjustment to that abnormal society is a measure of their mental
sickness. These millions of abnormally normal people, living without fuss in a
society to which, if they were fully human beings, they ought not to be
adjusted, still cherish "the illusion of individuality," but in fact they have
been to a great extent deindividualized. Their conformity is developing into
something like uniformity. But "uniformity and freedom are incompatible.
Uniformity and mental health are incompatible too. . . . Man is not made to be
an automaton, and if he becomes one, the basis for mental health is destroyed."
Reply
Andrew P says:
June 15, 2011 at 9:07 pm
My main problem with Chang's book is that even though he destroys all these
market conceits, he doesn't properly incorporate Marxian, and other structural
critiques of capitalism. He just accepts that capitalism and market systems are
the best distributive means available, which is absurd. He ignores the
fundamentally irrational nature of capitalism, how it's at conflict with itself
and that as marx noted, "it sows the seeds of its own destruction."
For a great structural critique of modern capital everyone here at NC should
read up on John Bellamy Foster's Monopoly and finance capital. He builds on
Sweezy and Baran's earlier work on Monopoly capital, showing how production in
the "real" economy is less and less profitable, necessitating the explosion in
financial speculation and debt in order to keep resuscitating the moribund
monopoly production sector. It has aspects of Keen's Credit Accelerator argument
but goes a bit further.
This article is the first in a series. You can find the rest at the site.
Reply
MichaelPgh says:
June 16, 2011 at 4:02 am
Great post! See also Freud, "Civilization and its Discontents". The stories we
tell ourselves about how the world works versus our discoveries of how the world
actually works are a continuous source of "cognitive dissonance" (in modern
psychology), "alienation" (in Marxism), or "madness" (in Foucault). Trying to
reconcile the story with our own experience is perilous business indeed.
Instead of looking at this as an excuse for job losses due to trade deficits then we should
be seeing it as a reason to gain back manufacturing jobs in order to retain a few more decent
jobs in a sea of garbage jobs. Mmm. that's so wrong. Working on garbage trucks are now some of
the good jobs in comparison. A sea of garbage jobs would be an improvement. We are in a sea of
McJobs.
Yes sir, often enough but not always. I had a great job as an IT large systems capacity planner
and performance analyst, but not as good as the landscaping, pool, and lawn maintenance for myself
that I enjoy now as a leisure occupation in retirement. My best friend died a greens keeper, but
he preferred landscaping when he was young. Another good friend of mine was a poet, now dying
of cancer if depression does not take him first.
But you are correct, no one but the welders, material handlers (paid to lift weights all day),
machinists, and then almost every one else liked their jobs at Virginia Metal Products, a union
shop, when I worked there the summer of 1967. That was on the swing shift though when all of the
big bosses were at home and out of our way. On the green chain in the lumber yard of Kentucky
flooring everyone but me wanted to leave, but my mom made me go into the VMP factory and work
nights at the primer drying kiln stacking finished panel halves because she thought the work on
the green chain was too hard. The guys on the green chain said that I was the first high school
graduate to make it past lunch time on their first day. I would have been buff and tan by the
end of summer heading off to college (where I would drop out in just ten weeks) had my mom not
intervened.
As a profession no group that I know is happier than auto mechanics that do the same work as
a hobby on their hours off that they do for a living at work, at least the hot rod custom car
freaks at Jamie's Exhaust & Auto Repair in Richmond, Virginia are that way. The power tool sales
and maintenance crew at Arthur's Electric Service Inc. enjoy their jobs too.
Despite the name which was on their incorporation done back when they rebuilt auto generators,
Arthur's sells and services lawnmowers, weed whackers, chain saws and all, but nothing electric.
The guy in the picture at the link is Robert Arthur, the founder's son who is our age roughly.
"... Anne Case and Angus Deaton garnered national headlines in 2015 when they reported that the death rate of midlife non-Hispanic white Americans had risen steadily since 1999 in contrast with the death rates of blacks, Hispanics and Europeans. Their new study extends the data by two years and shows that whatever is driving the mortality spike is not easing up. ..."
"... less-educated white Americans who struggle in the job market in early adulthood are likely to experience a "cumulative disadvantage" over time, with health and personal problems that often lead to drug overdoses, alcohol-related liver disease and suicide. ..."
New research identifies a 'sea of despair' among white, working-class Americans
By Joel Achenbach and Dan Keating - Washington Post
Sickness and early death in the white working class could be rooted in poor job
prospects for less-educated young people as they first enter the labor market, a situation
that compounds over time through family dysfunction, social isolation, addiction, obesity
and other pathologies, according to a study published Thursday by two prominent economists.
Anne Case and Angus Deaton garnered national headlines in 2015 when they reported
that the death rate of midlife non-Hispanic white Americans had risen steadily since 1999
in contrast with the death rates of blacks, Hispanics and Europeans. Their new study
extends the data by two years and shows that whatever is driving the mortality spike is not
easing up.
The two Princeton professors say the trend affects whites of both sexes and is happening
nearly everywhere in the country. Education level is significant: People with a college
degree report better health and happiness than those with only some college, who in turn
are doing much better than those who never went.
[Graph]
Offering what they call a tentative but "plausible" explanation, they write that
less-educated white Americans who struggle in the job market in early adulthood are likely
to experience a "cumulative disadvantage" over time, with health and personal problems that
often lead to drug overdoses, alcohol-related liver disease and suicide.
"Ultimately, we see our story as about the collapse of the white, high-school-educated
working class after its heyday in the early 1970s, and the pathologies that accompany that
decline," they conclude....
The white working class only
thrived because of unions
Reagan destroyed the unions
The white working class abandoned the unions and the Dems for white christian
patriarchal identity politics.
They vote to prop up a dying culture that is not adapted to the modern economy.
The culture is dysfunctional and must change, but people would rather fight the
windmills of economic change than travel the difficult road of cultural change
Solution: Increase demand by adding new money to the
economy by:
Method 1: Government increases net spending from level
B to level B' by increasing the deficit.
Method 2: Private banks increase net spending from level B
to level B' by making new loans.
Analysis:
Method 1 increases spending to a permanent higher level
B' until the government generates a surplus by taxing more
than it spends.
Method 2 increases spending to a higher level B' minus
interest payments until the loans are paid down.
Method 1 introduces a higher level of activity until the
government acts to reduce it.
Method 2 introduces a higher level of activity that
starts to lessen as interest payments come due and lessens
completely as principle comes due. Once principle is paid
down, the only new money introduced is the amount of
interest and that is held by the banks.
Example:
Method 1: The government pays private parties for some
work. Those private parties spend some portion of that
money and that portion then circulates through the private
economy. The other portion goes to private savings.
Method 2: A private bank makes a loan. The borrower
spends some of that money which then circulates through
the economy. The borrower pays interest which accrues to
the bank. The borrower then pays off the principle, which
removes the money from the economy.
MICHAEL HUDSON: The popular press acts as if governments
should act like a family. And just as families have to
balance the budgets, governments have to. But this is a
false analogy, because if you personally spend more than
you earn, you can't just write an I.O.U., which everybody
else can spend as if it's real money. You have to pay the
I.O.U. at some point, usually with interest, to the bank.
But that's not the case with sovereign governments. When a
government runs a budget deficit, it can do so in the way
that Abraham Lincoln funded the Civil War: You print the
money.
You print it into the economy by spending it.
Almost every year until the 1990s, the United States, like
every other country in the world, increased its debt by
running a budget deficit, by spending money into the
economy for infrastructure, schooling, and roads. This is
what enables economies to grow. That stopped during the
Clinton administration in the 1990s. At the end of the
administration he fell for neoliberal theory that you
should balance the budget, and he actually ran a budget
surplus. So the government stopped spending money into the
economy.
The result was the economy had to depend on banks to
create the money to expand. If the government doesn't
create it, who will create the spending power? The answer
was the banks.
Clinton did what he was told to do by the Secretary of
the Treasury, Robert Rubin. In effect, his policy was:
"Let the banks create all the money and charge interest
instead of the government creating money by spending it
like the greenbacks were spent."
The advantage of governments creating money is you they
don't have to pay interest, because the spending is
self-financing. Bank lobbyists cry about how large the
government debt is, but this is debt that is not expected
to be repaid. Adam Smith wrote that no government has ever
paid its debt.
I think it's easiest for most Americans to understand
this by looking at Europe. Under the Eurozone's rules,
central banks are not allowed to create much money. As a
result the economies of Europe are shrinking into
austerity. Greece is the most notorious example. Here you
have unemployment among youth up to 50% as the economy for
the last five years is suffering from the worst depression
since the 1930s. Yet the government is not able to spend
the money needed to rebuild the economy. The banks won't
let them do it. The aim of neoliberals is to prevent
governments from spending money to revive growth by
running deficits. Their argument is: "If a government
can't run a deficit, then it can't spend money on roads,
schools and other infrastructure. They'll have to
privatize these assets – and banks can create their own
credit to let investors buy these assets and run them as
rent-extracting monopolies."
The bank strategy continues: "If we can privatize the
economy, we can turn the whole public sector into a
monopoly. We can treat what used to be the government
sector as a financial monopoly. Instead of providing free
or subsidized schooling, we can make people pay $50,000 to
get a college education, or $50,000 just to get a grade
school education if families choose to if you go to New
York private schools. We can turn the roads into toll
roads. We can charge people for water, and we can charge
for what used to be given for free under the old style of
Roosevelt capitalism and social democracy."
This idea that governments should not create money
implies that they shouldn't act like governments. Instead,
the de facto government should be Wall Street. Instead of
governments allocating resources to help the economy grow,
Wall Street should be the allocator of resources – and
should starve the government to "save taxpayers" (or at
least the wealthy). Tea Party promoters want to starve the
government to a point where it can be "drowned in the
bathtub."
But if you don't have a government that can fund
itself, then who is going to govern, and on whose terms?
The obvious answer is, the class with the money: Wall
Street and the corporate sector. They clamor for a
balanced budget, saying, "We don't want the government to
fund public infrastructure. We want it to be privatized in
a way that will generate profits for the new owners, along
with interest for the bondholders and the banks that fund
it; and also, management fees. Most of all, the privatized
enterprises should generate capital gains for the
stockholders as they jack up prices for hitherto public
services."
The reason why the European countries, the United
States and other countries ran budget deficits for so many
years is because they want to keep this infrastructure in
the public domain, not privatized. The things that
government spends money on – roads, railroads, schools,
water and other basic needs – are the kind of things that
people absolutely must obtain. So they're the last things
you want to privatize. If they're privatized instead of
being publicly funded, they can be monopolized. Most
public spending programs are for such natural monopolies.
The guiding idea of a well-run economy is to keep
natural monopolies out of private hands. This was not done
in Russia after 1991. Its disaster under the neoliberals
is a classic example. It led to huge immigration rates,
shortening life spans, rising disease rates and drug use.
You can see how to demoralize a country if you can stop
the government from spending money into the economy. That
will cause austerity, lower living standards and really
put the class war in business. So what Trump is suggesting
is to put the class war in business, financially, with an
exclamation point.
SHARMINI PERIES: You talked about the implications of
cutting government spending and, in fact, your myth number
18 deals with this. You describe this myth as saying that
cutbacks in public spending will bring the government
budget into balance, restoring stability. And you just
demonstrated through the Russian example that this is
quite misleading and in fact has the opposite effect and
destabilizes the population. So this policy Trump seems to
endorse – the cutback in public spending – give us some
examples of how this could affect society.
MICHAEL HUDSON: You used the word "stability" and this is
often a slogan to prevent thought. George Orwell didn't
use the term "junk economics," but he defined what
doublethink is. The function is to prevent thought.
"Stability" is akin to the "Great Moderation." Remember
how economists running up to the 2008 crisis said, "This
is a Great Moderation."
We now know that it was the most unstable decade in a
century. It was a decade of financial fraud, it was a
decade where economic inequality between wealth and the
rest of the economy widened. So what made it moderate?
Alan Greenspan went before the Senate Committee and gave a
long talk on what was so "stable"? He said that what's
stable is that workers haven't gone on strike. They are so
deeply in debt, they owe so much money that they're one
paycheck away from missing an electric utility payment. So
they're afraid to strike. They're afraid even to protest
against working conditions. They're afraid to ask that
their wages be increased to reflect their productivity.
What's stable is the wealthy people, Greenspan's
constituency, the five percent or the one percent get all
of the income and the people get nothing. That is
stability according to Alan Greenspan.
Words like "stability" or similar euphemisms are used
to make people think that somehow the economy is stable
and normal. The reality is that it is being slowly
squeezed. That's basically what happened in the Great
Moderation. The government was cutting back spending on
social programs, dismantling the New Deal array of
consumer protection agencies, which Trump also wants to
get rid of. The first thing he wanted to get rid of, he
said, is Elizabeth Warren's Consumer Financial Protection
Agency. The problem for Republicans serving their bank
lobbyists is that it's trying to prevent fraud – and that
limits consumer choice. Just like we let people go to
MacDonald's and buy junk food and junk sodas to get obese,
we have to let them have the free choice to put their
pension funds in Wall Street companies that are going to
cheat them.
These are the Wall Street firms that have paid tens of
billions of dollars for the financial fraud they've
committed. The Republicans want to dismantle all of the
penalties against financial fraud, against cheating
consumers. That would reduce the amount of money that
sector can extract, and these people are what's driving
the economy. But they're driving the economy largely by
debt leveraging bordering on fraud. That's the kicker in
all this.
By dismantling government spending on the Consumer
Financial Protection Agency, the public news agencies, the
National Endowment for the Arts, you're stripping the
economy away and making the American economy like what
Margaret Thatcher did in England. You make it less
dynamic, a less lively place, and above all a poorer
economy. That is the aim of these "reforms," which mean
undoing what reforms used to mean for the last century.
These words and the vocabulary used in the press
dovetail into each other to paint a picture of a
fictitious economy. The aim is to make people think that
they're living in a parallel universe, unable to use a
vocabulary and economic concepts to explain just why life
is so unfair and why they're being squeezed so badly.
Above all, the aim is to dissuade them from thinking
about how it doesn't have to be this way. There is no
natural law that says that they should be squeezed by
debt, monopolies and fraud. But that kind of thinking
requires an alternative program – and an alternative
program requires recapturing the language to explain what
it is that you're trying to create as an alternative.
The Economist asks: "Fifty years after the dawn of empirical financial
economics, is anyone the wiser?"
My short answer: "Only the people who understand both the data
and its limitations, and not get lost in the illusion of precision."
Markets are driven by myriad factors, most of which are readily quantifiable.
But the small number of inputs that do not lend themselves to easy modeling
is how certain empiricists get themselves into trouble. They believe
their models accurately account for the real world, when they do not.
One would imagine that the parade of Black Swan events that keep
upending their models would convince these economists otherwise, but
you would be surprised at how foolishly stubborn these folks are.
The EMH proponents, the VAR analysts, the "stocks for the long run"
folks - the grim reality of their performance has not dissuaded them
from their beliefs. This has Yale Professor Robert Shiller concerned:
"[Shiller] worries that academic departments are "creating idiot
savants, who get a sense of authority from work that contains lots
of data". To have seen the financial crisis coming, he argues, it
would have been better to "go back to old-fashioned readings of
history, studying institutions and laws. We should have talked to
grandpa."
Shiller puts his finger on the right pressure point. The factors
ignored by the quants were the underlying changes in laws and regulations.
That allowed banks to run wild, something the pure quants were not prepared
to detect and act upon. The radical deregulation of the past 3 decades
was the equivalent of dark matter, undetectable by Newtonian physics
- or quant trading funds.
Shiller describes many modern economists and market observers as
idiot-savants; truth be told, when using that phrase he is
only half right.
Here is the Economist:
IT ALL began with a phone call, from a banker at Merrill Lynch
who wanted to know how investors in shares had performed relative
to investors in other assets. I don't know, but if you gave me $50,000
I could find out, replied Jim Lorie, a dean at the University of
Chicago's business school, in so many words. The banker, Louis Engel,
soon agreed to stump up the cash, and more. The result, in 1960,
was the launch of the university's Centre for Research in Security
Prices. Half a century later CRSP (pronounced "crisp") data are
everywhere. They provide the foundation of at least one-third of
all empirical research in finance over the past 40 years, according
to a presentation at a symposium held this month. They probably
influenced much of the rest. Whether that is an entirely good thing
has become a matter of debate among economists since the financial
crisis.
34 Responses to "Are Empirical Economists Idiot Savants?"
KentWillard: November 21st, 2010 at 8:51 am
My personal experience has been that
most 'quants' in Finance don't have economics degrees. Often a PhD in
Physics. Sometimes in Math, sometimes in Finance. Many aren't from the
US, or even the West. They don't have an understanding, or often
interest in markets. They can sure run a lot of simulations quickly
though.
machinehead : November 21st, 2010 at 8:53 am
'Shiller puts his finger on the right
pressure point. The factors ignored by the quants were the underlying
changes in laws and regulations.'
To these factors, I would add the cyclical analysis described in a
Big Picture post about Felix Zulauf a couple of days ago. Quantitative
models do a pretty good job of identifying 'late expansion phase'
syndrome: bubbly equity markets, loose credit standards, tightening
capacity, persistent inflation (properly measured).
But every time, economists as a group say that the Federal Reserve
will achieve a soft landing, and recession will be averted. Many of them
are saying this now about China, currently manifesting 'late expansion
phase' syndrome with a vengeance.
Why are economists so poor at reading the business cycle? I'd contend
that most of them are conflicted. Their paychecks come from corporate
entities who don't want to hear recession forecasts. Federal Reserve
economists certainly aren't going to bite the FOMC's guiding hand.
Academic economists should be freer, you'd think, but some have
corporate research funding. Robert Schiller at Yale was one of the few
(with Irrational Exuberance, January 2000) to get a cyclical peak right.
Behavioral economics says that economists, like every other cohort,
will be victims of groupthink at inflection points, always zigging when
they should zag. This is the tragedy of the Federal Reserve's interest
rate central planners. Never will they succeed at day-trading this vast
economy into prosperity. They've spectacularly failed at even the much
narrower task of enriching their client banking cartel at the expense of
everyone else.
Here's hoping that B.S. 'Benny Bubbles' Bernanke will be history's
last Fed chairman.
ToNYC: November 21st, 2010 at 9:02 am
Granpa knew that Moral Authority took
care of business and was worth more to effect continuity or change than
any manipulation of currency or credit. JP Morgan knew that Lending was
all about Character and told Congress that other factors were secondary.
Quants know how to manipulate data and the value of nothing.
Opir: November 21st, 2010 at 9:27 am
If we accept, for the sake of
argument, that economics is really 90% mass psychology, 10% math, then
isn't a large part of the issue that many of its professional
practitioners have tried to understand problems though a lens where
those percentages are reversed? There is perhaps kind of bias that
causes many of these people to only see the world using neat models, and
discount that what economics is really about trying to understand (once
you get beyond the simple cases where said models and standard ideas
about incentives work):
what people do and want to do; how many of them do it; and for how
long, modified by:
1) geopolitical events 2) the zeitgeist 3) culture (and subculture)
People may go into the field with a love of numbers and an interest
in money; what we may really need, however, are people who care about
understanding human behavior as it pertains to resources and power
within and between societies. A "sociology for money", as it were.
Go Dog Go: November 21st, 2010 at 9:27 am
Shiller describes many modern
economists and market observers as idiot-savants; truth be told, when
using that phrase he is only half right.
I just got that. Very funny
Mark E Hoffer: November 21st, 2010 at 9:42 am
funny, the Argument, ~"over-reliance
on imperfect Models/questionable Data", is, no doubt, True..
though, substitute "AGW/"Climate Change" for "Econometrics/Financial
Engineering" and . ~~
differently, Economists, of course, should be snorting more *Exhaust
Fumes, and less Laser Toner..
billkeep: November 21st, 2010 at 9:42 am
There are empiricists and then there
are empiricists. A quick look at Reinhart and Rogoff's book "This Time
Is Different," shows the incestual limitation of quant jocks (whether
trained in econ or physics or math - it's all the same because they use
the same tired data) and the power that can come from fresh data, fresh
thinking, and an absence of self-interest in the outcome (see Folbre's
piece on the ethics of economists in the NYT Economix column).
Bill W: November 21st, 2010 at 9:47 am
Despite our great triumphs of science
and advances in understanding, we still don't know jack about the
universe. I believe in the constant advance of knowledge, but I also
believe in being realistic.
We need to be prudent when we apply our theories about the world to
the real world. The results can be disappointing.
What's much worse than a fool? A fool with ambition.
How the Common Man Sees It Says:
November 21st, 2010 at 10:08 am The fact is, if you pay people to
look the other way, they usually do.
mhdoc: November 21st, 2010 at 10:14 am
Many years ago I was a biology
graduate student when we got our first computer terminal and I
discovered the joys of stepwise regression. I spent hours searching out
the last 5% of the variance. Then I went on my first field trip of the
season to check on the rainfall collectors I had randomly scattered
through the forest. We measured the dissolved elements in the water we
collected; parts per million potassium, etc.
One of the collectors had gotten plugged, filled with water, and a
thirsty chipmunk had fallen in and drowned. In addition, the water was
covered with pollen. Suddenly the value of stepwise regression for
explaining what was going on took a serious hit. I guess my black swan
looked like a chipmunk :)
Bill W: November 21st, 2010 at 10:26 am
billkeep, I like what you said about
fresh thinking and and absence of self-interest. How often do "data
driven," "open-minded," scientists become high priests of their own
theories. They will put down traditional religious beliefs, without
realizing the dogma of their own thinking. There will always be religion
of some sort in this world, whether the practitioners realize it or not.
I think the quants are probably missing a healthy dose of the applied
knowledge of experienced investors. You don't have to be able to
mathematically formulate why something works to understand that it does.
How do you separate the quack theories from the real ones? If I knew
that I'd be considerably wealthier.
farmera1: November 21st, 2010 at 10:34 am
Misuse of statistics by
economist/quants is a root cause of our recent meltdown.
Seeing the world and economics as a normal/Gaussian/bell curve world
(it isn't in most cases) will lead you to a path of unforeseen and
destructive events. You end up making all kinds of risk assessments and
predictions that are built upon "facts/Gaussian models/bell curve" that
just don't reflect the real world. Some big unpredicted event will get
you.
For example thinking (and building an investment house of cards) just
because models show you that the real estate market never goes down
(nation wide) that it will never happen is a fool's approach, but it
built huge bonuses (say a cool $100,000,000/yr for several) for the
executives so in that sense it was successful. It also made the
Ownership Society possible. It allowed this country to live way beyond
its means for years so most benefited. Cut taxes and start wars, no
problem, we got this baby humming. Since we were able to predict and
control risk so well who needs regulations. Leverage, no problem, we
have it under control (aka being fully hedged). RIGHT.
By the way the social sciences do the same thing, in using things
like ANV, standard deviations, risk, relative error (?)etc. This misuse
is just as big in its' own way as the quants/economists' errors.
Petey Wheatstraw: November 21st, 2010 at 11:12 am
"Markets are driven by myriad
factors, most of which are readily quantifiable." _______________
The least quantifiable of which is direct intervention in, and
manipulation by, central bankers. The markets are rigged. Quantify THAT,
bitch.
(sorry for the last sentence, not aimed at anyone.)
~~~
BR: $600 Billion dollars over 6-9 months.
Mark E Hoffer: November 21st, 2010 at 11:35 am
though, speaking of 'Empiricists',
these cats http://www.gapminder.org/ offer some interesting analytics,
esp. here http://www.gapminder.org/labs/
as per, YMMV, YOMP ..
louis: November 21st, 2010 at 11:38 am
There are a myriad of factors that
set a point spread.
Sechel: November 21st, 2010 at 11:55 am
There's an old joke about the drunk
economists looking for his keys by the light post even though they were
lost elsewhere, when asked he responded, "because this is where the
light is
The market seems intent on assuming the market operates under the
efficient market hypothesis, price distribution is normal and that
participants always act rationally. Nothing could be further from the
truth. Mandelbrot discussed how observations of Cotton price movements
disproved this. We know there is information asymmetry in the
marketplace.
The market knows what models to use, it just chooses not to. It's
beyond fat tails, it requires extreme value theory, knowing that risk
scales at the extremes and that bad news comes in threes(dependence).
So why use the failed tools, the answer is simple. If the market
gives up on OAS, Black-Scholes and the like, it has to accept being in
the dark more than it's used to.
Sechel: November 21st, 2010 at 12:02 pm
Barry, the mortgage market learned
that VAR does not work, that OAS is a terrible tool. Many have turned to
scenario analysis, but a great deal many like the simplicity of the old
failed tools.
daf48: November 21st, 2010 at 12:12 pm
"most of which are readily
quantifiable" Really? I'd be careful if that was my point of view.
Economic reality is compiled by using data points from thousands of
governments, corporate think tanks, independent agencies, etc'. But
little work has been done to look at the system as a whole. Or better
yet. is there a global economic system?
IMO your "short answer" is spot on
BR: The illusion of precision is a major problem not only because the
data are limited or much more granular than suspected - e.g., the fact
that price can be recorded down to the penny does not mean that is where
the significant digit is - but also because increased precision cannot
significantly improve predictability of system behavior if nonlinear
factors are present.*
*this was a key insight of the meteorologist Edward Lorenz, one of
the first 'chaos' theoreticians (1963), that and the sensitivity of even
the best model simulations to minute changes in initial conditions
(butterfly effect).
Uchicagoman: November 21st, 2010 at 12:38 pm
Here's an old (physics?) saying:
"You can either dazzle me with data, or butter me with bullshit."
b_thunder: November 21st, 2010 at 3:16 pm
"[Shiller] worries that academic
departments are "creating idiot savants, who get a sense of authority
from work that contains lots of data".
I wonder who Shiller had in mind? How about that guy who used to go
over massive amounts of data while in his bathtub? Remember the Maestro?
And another one who says we're under threat of deflation (according to
statisticians) and who doesn't see that other than houses and
flat-screen TVs, prices for everything else are rising in the real
world. The one who thinks that because cost of gasoline and food are not
in his data tables and charts, they do not matter. The one who thinks
that in times of 17% U6 un/under-employment and massive outsourcing
wages will rise and people will get hired if prices go up.
I also wonder what Barry's buddy "Invictus" thinks about all this. He
seems to trust the charts and data more than the real world sentiment.
Sechel: November 21st, 2010 at 4:01 pm
Who can believe anything they say.
With one breadth they tell us quantitative easing is meant to spur bank
lending, then they pay banks on their reserves encouraging them not to
lend those same reserves out. As far as the Fed goes, no credibility.
Julia Chestnut: November 21st, 2010 at 4:02 pm
You know, BR, the best economics class
I had during my graduate studies was econometrics. The thing that was so
good about it (and so incredibly annoying at the time) was that the prof
made us work the matrix algebra from the ground up in building
regression analyses. We were going to be using computers to regress the
data - but he was adamant that unless you understood the math, and knew
exactly what the math was doing with the data we input, you would have
no idea what the limitations of the analysis were. He also insisted that
we understand the limitations of the data – how it was collected, what
it meant. I've used that course at least weekly since I graduated
embarrassingly long ago (unlike "finance," where I at least learned that
derivatives are for hedging, not investing).
I'd say that either a true statistician or an applied mathematician
for a quant is the way to go. I meet loads of economists who couldn't
figure their way out of a paper bag. Know what's worse, though? The
number of MDs with less than a clue about the math underlying normative
numbers in lab tests. I'm less likely to get killed by a quant.
TerryC: November 21st, 2010 at 4:07 pm
"Only the people who understand both
the data and its limitations, and not get lost in the illusion of
precision."
Barry, I think you mean accuracy.
billkeep: November 21st, 2010 at 4:08 pm
Bill W
Actually if you knew that you wouldn't be wealthy. You would only be
wealthy if you knew it first and with enough time to act in your own
interests. There is a unreconcilable difference of purpose between
public and private interests when it comes to understanding markets. As
Sechel says We know there is information assymetry in the marketplace.
In fact, we bet on it. The problem we seem to now have is that a few
analysts who do understand the psychology of investors or not "public"
analysts. As a result, the public analysts lag behind because they have
been trained too narrowly in terms of the data and lack the
understanding of investor behavior. That is the way it appears to me
anyway.
constantnormal: November 21st, 2010 at 5:35 pm
As in most things, the quality of the
question says more than the completeness of the answer.
What many people lose sight of is the fact that we humans tend to
move in "excesses." First there is excessive greed which causes asset
bubbles, then comes the excessive fear after the bubble bursts.
This has been going on for several hundred years, regardless of
regulatory structure.
And, you know what?
That's OK. It is it what it is
Attempts to "modify" human behavior or attempts to disrupt the
natural flow of things will have it's own unintended consequences.
ezrasfund: November 21st, 2010 at 7:21 pm
So right. You can build a giant
edifice of precise calculations. But so often that edifice is build on a
foundation of vague assumptions such as "housing prices won't go down."
RodgerMitchell: November 21st, 2010 at 7:26 pm
All the mathematical formulas in the
world are trumped by the simple fact that the U.S. is monetarily
sovereign.
1. It does not need to borrow
2. It can pay for any deficits
of any size, without raising taxes
3. It never should engage in
"austerity."
4. It cannot be forced into bankruptcy, nor can any of its
agencies (i.e. Social Security, Medicare et al) be forced into
bankruptcy. .
Spending by the U.S. neither is constrained by taxes and
borrowing, nor is it even related to taxes and borrowing. Either can be
done or eliminated without affecting the other. That is, taxing does not
affect spending, and spending does not affect taxing. They, in fact, are
two, unrelated operations. . The sole constraint on federal spending is
inflation. We are nowhere near inflation, and it easily can be prevented
and cured with interest rate control. . Those who do not understand
monetary sovereignty do not understand economics. .
and, because of such, it, actually, "does need to borrow", contra to
your first assertion..(?)
soloduff: November 21st, 2010 at 9:50 pm
The author exhibits an elementary
conceptual confusion. Financial economics (of the EMH/Modern Portfolio
fame) is not "empirical" economics. Rather, it is based upon analogy
with 19th century statistical mechanics; hence its fetish of the bell
curve ("normal distribution"), which fails as a benchmark in every
crisis. B. Mandlebrot and E. Derman have written extensively on this
genre of economics; which differs from mainstream ("neoclassical" a la
Samuelson et al.) only inasmuch as neoclassical economics takes its
metaphor from an even more antiquated department of 19th century
physics, namely, "rational mechanics"–remember your Econ 101 text's
proud mention of the "production function" (Cobb-Douglas) and the
Lagrangian multiplier? About 15 years ago Philip Mirowski wrote an
expose of the neoclassical analogy–"More Heat Than Light"–demonstrating
conclusively that the luminaries of economics understood neither the
physics that they borrowed nor the economics that they data-fitted to
their analogy. (Ditto with financial economics in the critiques provided
by Mandlebrot and Derman.) –Oh, well, should we expect scholarly
accuracy from a mere financial reporter when the scholars themselves
serve up such wanton slop? In a word: All idiots, no savants.
CitizenWhy: November 21st, 2010 at 10:32 pm
Empirical economists are idiot
savants only in regard to economics. In other things they are probably
OK.
Economism is
reduction of all
social facts to
economic
dimensions. The term is often used to criticize economics as an
ideology, in which
supply and
demand are the only important factors in decisions, and outstrip or permit ignoring all
other factors.
It is believed to be a side effect of
neoclassical economics and blind faith in an "invisible
hand" or "laissez-faire"
means of making decisions, extended far beyond controlled and regulated markets, and used to
make political and military decisions.
Conventional ethics would play no role in
decisions under pure economism, except insofar as supply would be withheld, demand curtailed,
by moral choices of individuals. Thus, critics of economism insist on
political and other
cultural dimensions in
society.
"Ukrainian efforts to sabotage Trump backfire" [Politico]. (Furzy Mouse). ZOMG!!!! The Ukrainians were hacking tampering with
meddling in seeking to influence our election! Where's that declaration of war I had lying around
______________________
Members[edit]
European Congress of Ukrainians (Yaroslava Khortiani)
Armenia: Federation of Ukrainians of Armenia "Ukraine"
Belgium: Main Council of Ukrainian Public Organizations
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Coordination council of Ukrainian associations
Czech Republic: Ukrainian Initiative in the Czech Republic
Croatia: Union of Rusyns and Ukrainians of the Republic of Croatia
Estonia: Congress of Ukrainians of Estonia
France: Representative Committee of the Ukrainian Community of France
Georgia: Coordination Council of Ukrainians of Georgia
Germany: Association of Ukrainian Organizations in Germany
Greece: Association of the Ukrainian diaspora in Greece "Ukrainian-Greek Thought"
Hungary: Association of Ukrainian Culture in Hungary
Italy
Latvia: Ukrainian Cultural-Enlightening Association in Latvia "Dnieper"
Lithuania: Community of Ukrainians of Lithuania
Moldova: Society of Ukrainians of Transnistria
Norway
Poland: Association of Ukrainians in Poland (Piotr Tyma)
Portugal: Society of Ukrainians in Portugal
Romania: Union of Ukrainians of Romania
Russia: Association of Ukrainians of Russia
Serbia
Slovakia: Union of Rusyn-Ukrainians of the Slovak Republic
Spain
Switzerland
United Kingdom: Association of Ukrainians in Great Britain (Zenko Lastowiecki)
Others
Australia: Australian Federation of Ukrainian Organisations (Stefan Romaniw)
Argentina: Ukrainian Central Representation in Argentina
Brazil: Ukrainian-Brazilian Central Representation
Canada: Ukrainian Canadian Congress (Paul Grod)
Kazakhstan: Ukrainians in Kazakhstan
Paraguay:
United States: Ukrainian Congress Committee of America (Andriy Futey)
United States: Ukrainian American Coordinating Council (Ihor Gawdiak) [2]
Uzbekistan: Ukrainian Cultural Center "Fatherland"
They also are attempting to influence our Atlantic Council!
Funding[edit]
In September 2014, the New York Times reported that since 2008, the organization has received donations from more than twenty-five
governments outside of the United States, including $5 million from Norway.[34] Concerned that scholars from the organization
could be covertly trying to push the agendas of foreign governments, legislation was proposed in response to the Times report
requiring full disclosure of witnesses testifying before Congress.[35] Other contributors to the organization include the Ukrainian
World Congress, and the governments of Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Kazakhstan and Saudi Arabia.[9][36]
Plus, Dmitri Alperovitch, co-founder of the famous DNC security firm, CrowdStrike, is a senior fellow of our Atlantic Council!
"... Is the question: "Are there Benefits from Free Trade" - different from the question "Are there Benefits from Trade"? What work is word "free" doing here - and what does it even mean? ..."
"... I'm beginning to hate the word "free". It is so vague and so often misused that I'm beginning to think it should just be banned. It is a hindrance to communication. ..."
"... There is no "free" trade - only negotiated and regulated trade. And we seem to do a really lousy job of negotiating, unless you are in the small percentage who rigged the game. ..."
"... Silly boy, only large corporations and capital matter. Workers are a hindrance to rent extractions and can be sacrificed. ..."
Is the question: "Are there Benefits from Free Trade" - different from the question "Are there
Benefits from Trade"? What work is word "free" doing here - and what does it even mean?
I'm beginning to hate the word "free". It is so vague and so often misused that I'm beginning
to think it should just be banned. It is a hindrance to communication.
There is no "free" trade - only negotiated and regulated trade. And we seem to do a really
lousy job of negotiating, unless you are in the small percentage who rigged the game.
Who are "we"? Most people in the rest of the world thinks the game was rigged by the U.S. (whose
main interest seems to be in protecting its patent holders and agriculture).
I care more about US workers than workers in other countries. As should our politicians. And I
think when the US is strong the rest of the world is better for it.
As more expatriots travel and do business overseas, more foreign born sisters, brothers, and
cousins come here for our slice of the global supply chain production. As the line blurs between
our home girls and home boys vs others, the lines between many ethnicities also blurs as intermarriage
moves forward.
Forget political favoritism and affirmative favoritism! Let the good times roll and thrill
your soul! Got soul?
Understanding the Republicans' corporate tax reform
William G. Gale·
Tuesday, January 10, 2017
Republicans in the House are proposing sweeping corporate
tax reform. Their proposals would effectively repeal the
corporate income tax, currently levied at a 35 percent rate,
and replace it with a new "destination-based cash-flow tax (DBCFT)"
at a 20 percent rate for corporations and 25 percent for
unincorporated businesses. The new tax would be
border-adjustable – taxing imports and exempting exports.
The DBCFT has a lot to offer and it deserves a serious
look. But right now, the overall proposal is very poorly
understood. Here are 11 things to know:
1.The truly radical part is the proposal to effectively
abolish the corporate income tax. The United States would
become the only advanced country without a corporate income
tax, making it a very attractive location for international
investors.
2.The DBCFT is essentially a value-added tax (VAT), but with
a deduction for wages. Every advanced country except the U.S.
has a VAT alongside a corporate income tax. The U.S. would in
effect be replacing the corporate income tax with a modified
VAT. A VAT taxes consumption, not income – it has the same
effects as a national retail sales tax, but works better
administratively.
3.Unlike the corporate income tax, the DBCFT would not
distort investment or financing choices. Instead, it would
eliminate taxes on the returns to investment and would treat
debt and equity equally. It would also eliminate all
transfer-pricing issues and incentives to shift profits and
profitable activities offshore.
4.However, precisely because the DBCFT does not have the
negative incentive effects of the corporate income tax, there
is no good reason to reduce the tax rate to 25/20 percent.
Indeed, the tax rate should be equal to the top rate on
individual income, so as to reduce incentives to reclassify
wage income as business income.
5.Border adjustment of a VAT is not some wild, radical idea.
It is a natural and logical part of the tax. All advanced
countries with VATs employ border adjustments. In order to
focus the tax on domestic consumption, the VAT should exempt
exports – which are consumed abroad – and tax imports – which
are consumed here. Again, exactly like a retail sales tax.
6.Many economists – but very few non-economists – believe
that the international trade effects of border adjustments
will be small. In this view, taxing all imports and exempting
all exports will raise the value of the dollar relative to
other currencies. To a first approximation, this will leave
the level of imports and exports the same under the DBCFT as
they would have been without the tax. Border adjustments
alone should not be expected to change the trade balance. For
all of the reasons, there should be no expectation that the
domestic price level will change.
7.The deduction for wages makes the DBCFT progressive,
relative to a VAT. It only taxes consumption financed out of
holdings of capital, whereas a VAT burdens all consumption.
The new tax would also plausibly be more progressive than the
current corporate income tax, because it would not discourage
domestic investment. The investment disincentives in the
current corporate tax reduce capital per worker and hence
reduce wages.
8.One potentially thorny issue is that the DBCFT may create
negative net tax liability for some very big, very profitable
exporters. The DBCFT will only work as intended if those
exporters get full rebates, even if that means Treasury has
to write them a check. This is likely to create a serious
"optics" problem, given that many people think that big,
profitable corporations should be required to pay taxes.
Likewise, the DBCFT will raise tax payments for importers.
These are all perception issues, however; the border
adjustment won't affect the after-tax profitability of either
exporters or importers, because of the exchange rate
adjustment.
9.A second issue is that border adjustment and the resulting
exchange rate appreciation will reduce the value of American
investments overseas.
10.Another downside is that the World Trade Organization
(WTO) allows border adjustments for VATs but not for income
taxes. The wage deduction makes the DBCFT look like an income
tax (wages are deductible, for example, under the corporate
income tax). Many experts believe this would make the DBCFT,
as currently proposed, incompatiblewith WTO rules. If that
were the case, either: a new deduction or credit for wages
could be created elsewhere in the tax system; the wage
deduction could be dropped, making the DBCFT revert to a VAT
(which would make it more regressive); or the border
adjustment could be dropped, which would reintroduce
incentives for firms to shift profits and productive
activities abroad.
11.A final concern is that the corporate reform proposals
described above, even when coupled with some specified
corporate tax revenue-raisers, would reduce federal tax
revenue by about $900 billion over the next 10 years on a
static basis. Revenues would fall by somewhat less if the
changes were dynamically scored, but the proposals would
still represent a very large tax cut and would raise the
public debt.
Rough estimates suggest that setting the DBCFT rate at around
30 percent for all businesses would eliminate the revenue
shortfall. This would still leave it lower than the current
corporate rate or the top individual tax rate, and suggests
that an even higher DBFCT rate, coupled with a reduction in
the top individual income tax rate, could equate the top
individual and business rates and still be revenue-neutral
and probably fairly close to distributionally-neutral.
The corporate tax is ripe for reform. The DBFCT is an
excellent way to kick-start the needed discussion.
*
[You might say that all of my concerns are wrapped up in
item number 10. IOW, the DBCFT is number ten GI, number 10.]
[Here is more about the concerns over thing number 10 that
you should know about DBCFT from the Brookings article above.
Bottom line is that the stuff that makes DBCFT desirable for
the wage class majority are exactly those things that have
been hyped up in selling the bill to the electorate only to
be later discarded as non-conforming to WTO rules. This is a
classic bait and switch aimed at boosting corporate profits.
It may nonetheless shrink the trade deficit over time, but
working class people will not see any of it. The gains will
go to the owners of the robots that were financed by the
DBCFT.
The article linked below and highlighted by excerpts
comes from a conservative source, which somewhat surprisingly
saw fit to be honest about its consequences including the
eventual job killing changes required to enact the DBCFT into
law.]
Concerns About The 'Border Adjustable' Tax Plan From The
House GOP, Part I
...Concern #2: Is the DBCFT compliant with WTO obligations?
The United States is part of the World Trade Organization
(WTO) and we have ratified various agreements designed to
liberalize world trade. This is great for the global economy,
but it might not be good news for the Better Way plan because
WTO rules only allow border adjustability for indirect taxes
like a credit-invoice value-added tax. The DBCFT, by
contrast, is a version of a corporate income tax, which is a
direct tax.
The column by Charles Lane explains one of the specific
problems.
"Trading partners could also challenge the GOP plan as a
discriminatory subsidy at the World Trade Organization.
That's because it includes a deduction for wages paid by
U.S.-located firms, importers and exporters alike - a break
that would obviously not be available to competitors abroad.
Advocates argue that the DBCFT is a consumption-base tax,
like a VAT. And since credit-invoice VATs are border
adjustable, they assert their plan also should get the same
treatment. But the WTO rules say that only "indirect" taxes
are eligible for border adjustability. The New York Times
reports that the WTO therefore would almost surely reject the
plan.
"Michael Graetz, a tax expert at the Columbia Law School,
said he doubted that argument would prevail in Geneva.
"W.T.O. lawyers do not take the view that things that look
the same economically are acceptable," Mr. Graetz said.
A story in the Wall Street Journal considers the potential
for an adverse ruling from the World Trade Organization.
" Even though it's economically similar to, and probably
better than, the value-added taxes (VATs) many other
countries use, it may be illegal under World Trade
Organization rules. An international clash over taxes is
something the world can ill afford when protectionist
sentiment is already running high. ...The controversy is over
whether border adjustability discriminates against trade
partners. ...the WTO operates not according to economics but
trade treaties, which generally treat tax exemptions on
exports as illegal unless they are consumption taxes, such as
the VAT. ...the U.S. has lost similar disputes before. In
1971 it introduced a tax break for exporters that, despite
several revamps, the WTO ruled illegal in 2002.
And a Washington Post editorial is similarly concerned.
" Republicans are going to have to figure out how to make
such a huge de facto shift in the U.S. tax treatment of
imports compliant with international trade law. In its
current iteration, the proposal would allow corporations to
deduct the costs of wages paid within this country - a nice
reward for hiring Americans and paying them well, which for
complex reasons could be construed as a discriminatory
subsidy under existing World Trade Organization doctrine.
Concern #3: Is the DBCFT a stepping stone to a VAT?
If the plan is adopted, it will be challenged. And if it
is challenged, it presumably will be rejected by the WTO. At
that point, we would be in uncharted territory.
Would that force the folks in Washington to entirely
rewrite the tax system? Would they be more surgical and just
repeal border adjustability? Would they ignore the WTO, which
would give other nations the right to impose tariffs on
American exports?
One worrisome option is that they might simply turn the
DBCFT into a subtraction-method value-added tax (VAT) by
tweaking the law so that employers no longer could deduct
expenses for labor compensation. This change would be seen as
more likely to get approval from the WTO since credit-invoice
VATs are border adjustable...
[Since this criticism is written by a conservative then some
of his concerns regarding the DBCFT that you can read at the
link provided above make the DBCFT more attractive to liberal
elites. My concerns are more for the wage class majority
though.]
Let us make sure we see the forest and not get trapped in the
trees looking at their roots.
The goal is to shift the
design of the public's revenue system to one where the public
finance contributions are shifted away from income and
profits and wealth and on to the act of consumption where all
of us live.
Are societies, and its economic aspect, about living and
consuming? Should we burden this more and more so those with
already lightly felt burdens can control even more (of
economics and control of society)?
"The goal is to shift the design of the public's revenue
system to one where the public finance contributions are
shifted away from income and profits and wealth and on to the
act of consumption where all of us live..."
[That would be
your goal buddy, not mine. My goal is to reduce the
concentration of wealth and power that subordinates democracy
to corporate profits while simultaneously making work and its
commensurate rewards available to the broad wage class
majority. Corporatists think that they are just collecting
the spoils of war, but they forget who actually fights the
wars.]
After a second read of your reply I believe that you are
actually agreeing with me that the DBCFT is a regressive
sales tax. Clearly that is what Republicans want. Everyone's
take here at EV was that it is a regressive sales tax. So
then we took a second look at it to see if it will create
more jobs than it costs and it will not.
I have often referenced this without being aware of it.
My version is that any proxy measure will become less
relevant over time as it drifts away from the intended target
(the more so if it is used to guide policy).
Campbell's law is an adage developed by Donald T. Campbell,
an example of the cobra effect:
"The more any quantitative social indicator is used for
social decision-making, the more subject it will be to
corruption pressures and the more apt it will be to distort
and corrupt the social processes it is intended to monitor."
Campbell's law was published in 1976 by Campbell, a social
psychologist, an experimental social science researcher and
the author of many works on research methodology: "When a
measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure."
Donald T. Campbell, Master of Many Disciplines
By ROBERT MCG. THOMAS JR.
Donald T. Campbell, a nimble-minded social scientist who
left his mark on half a dozen disciplines and helped
revolutionize the fundamental principles of scientific
inquiry common to them all, died on Monday in a hospital near
his home in Bethlehem, Pa....
Dr. Campbell, who did his major work at Northwestern
University, was by training and his Berkeley doctorate a
social psychologist, but it was a tribute to his bewildering
range as a master methodologist that when he took up his last
academic post, at Lehigh University, in 1982 university
officials threw up their hands and simply designated him
"university professor," with faculty listings in the
departments of psychology, sociology and anthropology and the
department of education.
They could easily have thrown in biology, the philosophy
of science and market research. For a generation, virtually
no respectable researcher this side of the chemistry lab has
designed or carried out a reputable scientific study without
a thorough grounding in what Dr. Campbell called
quasi-experimentation, the highly sophisticated
statistics-based approach he invented to replicate the
effects of the truly randomized scientific studies that are
all but impossible in the slippery and unruly world of human
interactions....
It is a valid and reliable adage from a Social Psychologist
who Economists should take seriously. His adage explains why
Economists are so often wrong, i.e., they fail to take into
account the nature and thus behavior of people as
individuals, groups, and as both sentient and thinking beings
who can and do change behavior routinely sometimes for
rational reasons but just as often just to do and be
different.
That's impossible to predict with statistical
models although with statistical models scientists can
capture WHEN a change is occurring, even where and sometimes
why and how but only after the change has occurred, which
makes Prediction most difficult.
Add to this what Marxists used to call "class interest" of
financial oligarchy and we get closer to understanding why
neo-classical economics is so bad.
"... "Equitable Growth in Conversation" is a recurring series where we talk with economists and other social scientists to help us better understand whether and how economic inequality affects economic growth and stability. ..."
"... In this installment, Equitable Growth's Research Director John Schmitt talks with economist William A. Darity Jr. ("Sandy"), the Samuel DuBois Cook Professor of Public Policy at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy, about the importance of stratification economics in understanding U.S. economic growth and inequality. Read their conversation below. ..."
"Equitable Growth in Conversation" is a recurring
series where we talk with economists and other social scientists to help us better
understand whether and how economic inequality affects economic growth and stability.
In this installment, Equitable Growth's Research
Director John Schmitt talks with economist William A. Darity Jr. ("Sandy"), the
Samuel DuBois Cook Professor of Public Policy at Duke University's Sanford School of
Public Policy, about the importance of stratification economics in understanding U.S.
economic growth and inequality. Read their conversation below.
John Schmitt: I have not too many questions,
but hopefully we'll have a good conversation. You are the founder of stratification
economics, which you pioneered with a group that includes Darrick Hamilton, James
Stewart, Gregory Price, and others. How would you describe the main features of
stratification economics? And how would you differentiate them from the kind of
standard, neoclassical economics that most of us were taught in graduate school or in
undergraduate economics classes?
Sandy Darity:
So, I think the core of
stratification economics offers a structural rather than a behavioral explanation for
economic inequality between socially identified groups-whether they're racial groups,
ethnic groups, gender groups, or groups that are differentiated on some other basis
such as religious affiliation, for that matter. Stratification economics goes against
the grain of trying to argue that the kinds of differences that we observe and
economic outcomes are attributable to cultural practices or some forms of
dysfunctional behavior on the part of the group that's in the relatively inferior
position.
We argue instead that economists and other social
scientists have to look at social structures and policies to really explain why those
differences exist. What might be unique about stratification economics is the
particular way in which it offers the structural analysis of these kinds of
inequalities, and that particular way is by focusing on the importance of
relative group position
from the standpoint of participants in our social world.
That persons compare themselves against others is based
on research on happiness, which suggests that the major factor in determining whether
a person reports feeling happy is actually their perception of their position in
comparison with others-not their absolute position, but their relative position. What
stratification economics brings on the scene is a specific view of exactly with whom
individuals are comparing themselves.
Not only are folks making comparisons with individuals
who they perceive as being part of their own social group, but they also are making
comparisons about
their group's
position.
The cross-group comparisons are made against the social
groups that are "the other" for them. It's those two sets of comparisons that drive
behavior and drive people to actually act in ways that are supportive of the status
of their relevant social group. I think traditional economics doesn't pay much
attention to the comparative dimension, and it certainly doesn't pay much attention
to the comparative dimension in terms of an individual's sense of group identity or
group affiliation.
I do want to add that a lot of this work is deeply
collaborative. And I think it's important that my collaborators be recognized,
particularly [associate professor of economics and urban policy] Darrick Hamilton at
the New School, Mark Paul, who is a postdoctoral fellow here at the Cook Center at
Duke, and Khai Zaw, who is a statistical researcher at the Cook Center, who all have
worked very closely with me.
And there's a string of folks who have been involved in
various dimensions of the development of stratification economics as a field, among
them economists Greg Price [Morehouse College], James Stewart [Pennsylvania State
University], Patrick Mason [Florida State University], Marie Mora [University of
Texas at Rio Grande Valley], Alberto Dávila [University of Texas at Rio Grande
Valley], Sue Stockly [Eastern New Mexico University], and Stephanie Seguino
[University of Vermont].
So even though I don't think stratification economics
is sweeping the economics profession, there's actually a significant core of folks
who are embracing the approach, and, hopefully, the numbers will grow.
Schmitt: So, you make the comment about where
conventional economics falls short. Can you give an example or two of a social or
economic problem where you think that the tools developed in stratification economics
give a better explanation for an economic or social phenomenon than the standard
economics view?
Darity:
One example would be the
persistence of discrimination under competitive conditions. In standard economics,
there's very little room or terrain for trying to explain why we might observe
sustained discriminatory practices by one group toward the other, particularly
discriminatory practices that have economic content.
In stratification economics, it's fairly
straightforward to try to come up with an explanation that makes some sense. Because
of the emphasis in stratification economics on what we might call tribal
affiliation-or team affiliation or group affiliation-to the extent that people value
those kinds of affiliations and the position of their team, group, or tribe, then
they will engage in collaborative ways, whether those collaborative ways are fully
conscious or whether they are implicit.
They'll engage in collaborative ways to preserve the
position of their group. And so discrimination can be something that's sustained. And
even more strongly than that, stratification economics would suggest that if the
difference between the two groups narrows, the group on top will intensify its
discriminatory practices. If it becomes harder to exclude the out-group because the
out-group is becoming better educated or has other kinds of indicators that suggest
that it is comparably productive to members of the in-group, then the in-group will
intensify the degree of discrimination that it practices toward the out-group. I
think that conventional economics would never actually see that phenomenon.
Schmitt: You've described stratification
economics as combining influences from economics, sociology, and social psychology,
and it's obvious in a lot of what you just described about the persistence of
discrimination. What led you to blend those things together? What are the influences
or the ways that brought you to piece the various parts of this together?
Darity:
You said at the outset that I
was the founder of stratification economics-I think it's maybe more accurate to say
that I'm the person who gave this set of ideas a label. But I don't think that these
ideas originated with me, and I think that to a large extent, I've synthesized ideas
from others. But I do think that these ideas from others are extremely powerful and
influenced the way in which I began to think about this. I've long been wanting to
bypass arguments for intergroup inequality that are predicated on the notion that
there's something fundamentally inferior about one of the two groups.
So from economics, for example, you could draw upon the
work of the idiosyncratic early 20th century economist Thorstein Veblen, who, for
example, in
The Theory of the Leisure Class
, talks about the significance of
comparisons within your group versus comparisons vis-a-vis the group that is supposed
to be outside of yours. And that translated into the forgotten theory of
consumption-aggregate consumption in economics-that the late economist James
Duesenberry developed, called the relative income hypothesis. People frequently
discard that one when they think about theories of aggregate consumption, but that's
a body of work that influenced my way of thinking about some of these issues.
From sociology, I think that the most important
contribution probably is Herbert Blumer's 1958 essay on prejudice as a function of
relative group position. He challenged the view that prejudice is something that we
can identify as some sort of individual defect, arguing instead that prejudice is
really something that's functional for preserving or extending the relative position
of an advantaged social group. That, to me, is very much stratification economics,
without the label.
Then there's a whole body of work about notions of
individual productivity being influenced by the context in which people are
performing tasks. This might include employment in a hostile workplace environment
for an individual from a group that is subjected to stigma, which will affect the
individual's capacity to perform. And it's not just the question of what educational
credentials they have, or what kind of training they have, or what kind of motivation
they have. It's also a question of the atmosphere in which they are functioning. And
so from social psychology, I took the phenomenon that has been developed by
researchers such as Claude Steele [emeritus professor at Stanford and former vice
chancellor and provost at the University of California, Berkeley] of stereotype
threat as another dimension, or angle, for thinking about how individual productivity
can be distorted or reduced as a consequence of the social climate that they face. In
short, in the jargon we frequently use in economics, individual productivity is
endogenous.
Schmitt: In a lot of your recent work, you've
turned your attention to the issue of wealth inequality. What led you to make that a
focus? And what do you think are the most important findings from that research?
Darity:
My turn to the focus on wealth
inequality came about for two reasons. One is because of an increasing recognition
that these types of disparities are the most important indicator of differences in
economic well-being. The second reason is because the work that I have begun to do on
reparations kept pointing me back to the racial wealth gap as the most important
manifestation of the effects of racism and discrimination over time in the United
States.
Those two considerations kept directing me toward an
emphasis on wealth inequality. But it is also my sense that all economic
inequalities-particularly group-based economic inequalities unfortunately-have been
assigned to be the purview of labor economists.
Of course, the work that labor economists do can point
us toward some explanations for disparities that are associated with earnings and
occupational status, but their perspective doesn't take us very far in explaining
wealth inequalities.
Stratification economics offered a relatively simple
but, I think, much more powerful explanation for why we observe wealth inequality in
general but also wealth inequality by race. One of the big findings that has emerged
from our work, which is now being replicated in other people's research, is a very
simple but important conclusion that education in and of itself does not eliminate
racial economic disparity.
There are tons of people who focus on education as the
answer. I certainly think improving education for everyone is a great idea, but it's
not going to close the racial wealth gap. Thus far, it has not eliminated
discriminatory differences in wages or in unemployment rates. Simply put, education
is far from enough to solve the kinds of disparities that we are concerned about.
Schmitt: You did your Ph.D. at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the late 1970s, so you've been in the
business for a little while. What's your take on how the economics profession has
developed, say over the past 30 years or so? Do you think that it is moving in a good
direction, bad direction, indifferent? Do you think it is more or less open to some
of the ideas that we've been talking about right now?
Darity:
That's a tough one. I don't
know that in my experience it's been particularly open to any of these ideas. I think
that there's been a greater receptiveness or interest in these ideas from scholars in
other disciplines. To be frank, I think that the economics profession has a certain
anti-intellectualism. That's a pretty strong statement, but I mean that in the sense
that if you think about intellectual activity as involving wide-ranging curiosity and
also wide-ranging interests in research unbounded by disciplinary lines, I think the
economists are very, very inclined to be somewhat incurious and to treat every
problem from the standpoint of a fixed package of ideas.
In that sense, I think there's a certain
anti-intellectualism, and therefore, very little receptiveness to ideas that go
outside of the standard box. I'm not sure the conditions are a lot different now in
the economics profession; I mean, there's a sense in which I think it's long been
that way, particularly ever since the quantification revolution in economics that
largely was spearheaded by one of my mentors, [the late Nobel Laureate] Paul
Samuelson. The process of making economics appear to be more of a mathematical
science was accompanied by driving out some of the more interesting ideas and
approaches, rather than incorporating them into the process of making it a
mathematical science.
Schmitt: Do you take any comfort from the rise
of informational economics, or search models, or the rise of the importance of
behavioral economics?
Darity:
If you are talking about
search models that are associated with search and employment, I'm not a real
enthusiast for imperfectionism. Because the implication is that if we did not have
those frictions, if we did not have those imperfections, then everything would be
glorious. But it is my view that a smoothly functioning market economy would still
generate high degrees of inequality, and certain kinds of inequities, because those
processes pay very little attention to inherited advantages and disadvantages. I
don't necessarily see imperfectionist approaches as providing a solution. I
particularly don't like search theories of unemployment because I think what they say
is people are out of work because they are looking for work, rather than people are
looking for work because they are out of work.
Stratification economics actually attempts to be
somewhat of a departure from behavioral economics. Behavioral economics, to my way of
understanding it, suggests that people actually behave irrationally, and so it's
trying to explore and understand irrational behavior, whereas the whole historical
thrust of much of economics has been oriented toward suggesting that there is
rationality to people's behavior. Stratification economics accepts the premise that
there's a rationality to behavior, but it also presumes that there is rationality to
the behavior of social groups, as well as individuals. It's a rationality that's
predicated on the notion that these groups frequently, or typically, act as if they
view themselves as being in competition with one another.
Schmitt: One of the things that's important for
us at the Washington Center for Equitable Growth is to look at the rise of inequality
from a high level, beginning at the end of the 1970s to an extremely high level now,
based on almost any metric you want to use. Do you have a working model in your mind
for what explains that big increase in inequality over this period? And do you have
any guidance as to what policymakers could do to turn things around?
Darity:
One of the things that I
mentioned at the start of our conversation was the importance of social structures
and policies. And I think that the run-up in inequality that we've observed in recent
years is closely tied to a set of social policies that have produced virtually
unlimited capacity to generate extraordinary levels of wealth. One is a form of
profit sharing, which is what we call super salaries for high-level executives at the
nation's most highly resourced corporations. Another is the deregulation of the
financial markets, while maintaining a moral hazard problem, in the sense that the
investment bankers can anticipate that they'll be bailed out in the event of a
crisis. And a third is the reform of the tax system, where we've moved from having
marginal tax rates for folks at the upper end of the income distribution, in the
vicinity of 90 percent to less than 30 percent today. The Great Recession also
contributed to a greater explosion or extension of inequality, both in wealth and in
income.
In short, I think we can look directly at a set of
policies and, more recently, at the advent of the Great Recession to understand the
rise in economic inequality.
Schmitt: So my last question: Do you have any
advice for a young person who wants to get a Ph.D. in economics? Or a Ph.D. in a
social science? In particular, do you recommend studying economics?
Darity:
I definitely don't want to
forsake the economics profession. I still have hope that there will be other, younger
economists who will try to bring very fresh perspectives to the way in which we
conduct economic research. I would encourage folks to go into the field, but I'd want
them to have their eyes open. I think that they need to be very selective about which
institutions they choose to attend to try to do their work.
If graduate students have ideas that are not
conventional or are unorthodox, then they need to have their eyes set on trying to
identify departments that have the flexibility and open-mindedness to allow them to
pursue the kind of approaches that they want to undertake. There are some, and it's
not just departments that we view as being explicitly heterodox. I think that there
are some departments that are more conventional, where there are faculty members who
are extremely open-minded, in comparison with other places.
A new graduate student really has to make a very
careful choice about which department to go to, and once there, who they should work
with in that department. I would say that's the research that needs to be done
carefully, rather than telling people they shouldn't go into economics.
Schmitt: Thank you so much, Sandy, for your
time.
Darity:
Thanks for inviting me to do
this. Take care.
"... Of course, I should admit that I am not an entirely disinterested observer of this engagement, because in the early 1970s, long before I discovered the Samuelson article that Nick is challenging, Earl Thompson had convinced me that Hume's account of PSFM was all wrong, the international arbitrage of tradable-goods prices implying that gold movements between countries couldn't cause the relative price levels of those countries in terms of gold to deviate from a common level, beyond the limits imposed by the operation of international commodity arbitrage. ..."
I think Nick Rowe is a great economist; I really do. And
on top of that, he recently has shown himself to be a very
brave economist, fearlessly claiming to have shown that Paul
Samuelson's classic 1980 takedown ("A Corrected Version of
Hume's Equilibrating Mechanisms for International Trade") of
David Hume's classic 1752 articulation of the
price-specie-flow mechanism (PSFM) ("Of the Balance of
Trade") was all wrong. Although I am a great admirer of Paul
Samuelson, I am far from believing that he was error-free.
But I would be very cautious about attributing an error in
pure economic theory to Samuelson. So if you were placing
bets, Nick would certainly be the longshot in this match-up.
Of course, I should admit that I am not an entirely
disinterested observer of this engagement, because in the
early 1970s, long before I discovered the Samuelson article
that Nick is challenging, Earl Thompson had convinced me that
Hume's account of PSFM was all wrong, the international
arbitrage of tradable-goods prices implying that gold
movements between countries couldn't cause the relative price
levels of those countries in terms of gold to deviate from a
common level, beyond the limits imposed by the operation of
international commodity arbitrage.
And Thompson's reasoning
was largely restated in the ensuing decade by Jacob Frenkel
and Harry Johnson ("The Monetary Approach to the Balance of
Payments: Essential Concepts and Historical Origins") and by
Donald McCloskey and Richard Zecher ("How the Gold Standard
Really Worked") both in the 1976 volume on The Monetary
Approach to the Balance of Payments edited by Johnson and
Frenkel, and by David Laidler in his essay "Adam Smith as a
Monetary Economist," explaining why in The Wealth of Nations
Smith ignored his best friend Hume's classic essay on PSFM.
So the main point of Samuelson's takedown of Hume and the PSFM was not even original. What was original about
Samuelson's classic article was his dismissal of the
rationalization that PSFM applies when there are both
non-tradable and tradable goods, so that national price
levels can deviate from the common international price level
in terms of tradables, showing that the inclusion of
tradables into the analysis serves only to slow down the
adjustment process after a gold-supply shock.
So let's follow Nick in his daring quest to disprove
Samuelson, and see where that leads us.
Q: The neoclassical theory of the firm does not consider political engagement by corporations.
How big of an omission do you think this is?
The problems in expanding the theory of the firm to consider political engagements are considerable.
Of course, political engagement by firms can be viewed as merely rent-seeking. Unavoidably, this
produces waste... (and possibly also corrupt[s] the political system).
But before one jumps to the conclusion that therefore corporations should be denied the right
to influence political decisions in the interests of efficiency, more must be considered. For
example, this week, over one hundred public corporations, most of them high-tech firms, filed
a brief opposing the legality of the executive order signed by President Trump barring various
immigrants. 1) This can be viewed as collective action by firms in defense of capitalism
and the free flow of goods and services. Those opposed to firms lobbying regulatory agencies would
probably approve this defense by corporations of human rights. Nor was this case unique. Corporations,
like Apple, Facebook, and Google, have regularly defended human rights.
What this implies is that any absolute, prophylactic rule against political engagement may be
undesirable. How then should we distinguish between "good" and "bad" political engagements by
corporations? One approach might be to refine the rules of corporate governance and give shareholders
greater rights in the process. To the extent that shareholders are diversified, they should rationally
oppose rent-seeking by competing firms, as such activity just raises the costs for both sides.
Conversely, however, in concentrated industries where collusion is more likely than competition,
diversified shareholders might rationally support rent-seeking (and even reduced competition)
by the firms in which they invest. Some empirical evidence suggests that investors in the highly
concentrated airline industry have behaved this way. Hence, stronger corporate governance may
supply a partial answer sometimes, but hardly always. At best, it can add transparency to the
process, thereby making rent-seeking less feasible.
Theorists of the firm who wish to restrict political engagements by firms face a serious problem
that they have not yet recognized: at least in the United States, corporate political engagement
may be protected by the First Amendment. This means that reforms such as disclosure are possible
(and, I think, desirable), but stricter, prophylactic rules are probably not. ...
It seems to me that the problem is this direct political intervention by corporations. They should
be allowed to make donations to charities specifically set up to support civil liberties, human
rights etc. (e.g. Amnesty, ACLU) and to allow those organizations to list their support. It is
not clear that they should be allowed to act politically in their own right.
So, medical provider corporations should not be allowed to oppose the repeal of Obamacare because
they want to keep getting paid by patients getting needed medical care at their clinics and hospitals
by doctors and nurses?
Should the AMA be allowed to oppose repeal because it's doctor members want to continue to
get paid?
Should nurses unions be allowed to oppose repeal because they want to continue getting paid?
Perhaps you seek a return of slavery to cut living costs by forcing doctors and nurses, farmers,
cooks, to work for nothing to benefit consumers?
Or do you believe government can charge nothing while paying those delivering government services
good middle class incomes that defined the American Dream in the 60s?
In the 60s, everyone understood good incomes required high prices and taxes. Conservatives
sold everyone, including 99% of economists on the free lunch of high incomes and low prices and
taxes. TANSTAAFL. Since Reagan, 90% are either no better off or worse off from low prices and
taxes.
And that applies to businesses. 90% of businesses are worse off or just holding their own as
a result of the political economics of low prices and low taxes.
The modern small business startup is the guy who signs up with Uber and Lyft and then struggles
to find ways to be paid by customers without paying the rent seekers more than he might get in
business profit.
But again, small businesses have been brainwashed into supporting the policies that hurt them
but benefit just 10% of businesses, mostly rentier businesses.
The problem I see is with the education of the people, including people in business, that free
lunches are possible. That cutting prices, and taxes are prices, will increase incomes, whether
workers or businesses.
Eliminating business lobbying while individuals continue seeking free lunch government will
not make anyone better off. TANSTAAFL
There are plenty of individuals involved (and employee organizations as well). Companies do not
need to be involved. The key point here should always be non-profit and public purpose.
"Conversely, however, in concentrated industries where collusion is more likely than competition,
diversified shareholders might rationally support rent-seeking (and even reduced competition)
by the firms in which they invest. Some empirical evidence suggests that investors in the highly
concentrated airline industry have behaved this way."
The airline industry has lost money since deregulation, and that is after hundreds of billions
in government bailouts and confiscation of shareholder "value".
Yes, there are a number of rent seekers who have profited, but those are the M&A rent seekers,
bankruptcy rent seekers, the restructuring rent seekers, ...
While the aircraft industry has consolidated to be dominated by only two, neither Boeing nor
Airbus reap economic profit, and their business profits are not stellar, and that is due to strong
government support keeping them from insolvency.
"corporate political engagement may be protected by the First Amendment"
Corporations are created by state law (with just a few federal exceptions), so surely at the
state level it would be possible to alter incorporation statutes so that corporations clearly
do not have a right to political engagement.
Paul Krugman is taking some guff for this column where he argues that the US economy is now
at potential, or full employment, so any shift in the federal budget toward deficit will just
crowd out private demand.
Whether higher federal spending (or lower taxes) could, in present conditions, lead to higher
output is obviously a factual question, on which people may read the evidence in different ways.
As it happens, I don't agree that current output is close to the limits of current productive
capacity. But that's not what I want to write about right now. Instead I want to ask: What concretely
would crowding out even mean right now?
Below, I run through six possible meanings of crowding out, and then ask if any of them gives
us a reason, even in principle, to worry about over-expansionary policy today. (Another possibility,
suggested by Jared Bernstein, is that while we don't need to worry about supply constraints for
the economy as a whole, tax cuts could crowd out useful spending due to some unspecified financial
constraint on the federal government. I don't address that here.) Needless to say, doubts about
the economic case for crowding-out are in no way an argument for the specific deficit-boosting
policies favored by the new administration.
The most straightforward crowding-out story starts from a fixed supply of private savings.
These savings can either be lent to the government, or to business. The more the former takes,
the less is left for the latter. But as Keynes pointed out long ago, this simple loanable-funds
story assumes what it sets out to prove. The total quantity of saving is fixed only if total income
is fixed. If higher government spending can in fact raise total income, it will raise total saving
as well. We can only tell a story about government and business competing for a given pool of
saving if we have already decided for some other reason that GDP can't change.
The more sophisticated version, embodied in the textbook ISLM model, postulates a fixed supply
of money, rather than saving. [1] In Hicks' formulation, money is used both for transactions and
as the maximally liquid store of wealth. The higher is output, the more money is needed for transactions,
and the less is available to be held as wealth. By the familiar logic of supply and demand, this
means that wealthholders must be paid more to part with their remaining stock of money. The price
wealthholders receive to give up their money is interest; so as GDP rises, so does the interest
rate.
Unlike the loanable funds story with fixed saving, this second story does give a logically
coherent account of crowding out. In a world of commodity money, if such ever was, it might even
be literally true. But in a world of bank-created credit money, it's at best a metaphor. Is it
a useful metaphor? That would require two things. First, that the interest rate (whichever one
we are interested in) is set by the financial system. And second, that the process by which this
happens causes rates to systematically rise with demand. The first premise is immediately rejected
by the textbooks, which tell us that "the central bank sets the interest rate." But we needn't
take this at face value. There are many interest rates, not just one, and the spreads between
them vary quite a bit; logically it is possible that strong demand could lead to wider spreads,
as banks stretch must their liquidity further to make more loans. But in reality, the opposite
seems more likely. Government debt is a source of liquidity for private banks, not a use of it;
lending more to the government makes it easier, not harder, for them to also lend more to private
borrowers. Also, a booming economy is one in which business borrowers are more profitable; marginal
borrowers look safer and are likely to get better terms. And rising inflation, obviously, reduces
the real value of outstanding debt; however annoying this is to bankers, rationally it makes them
more willing to lend more to their now less-indebted clients. Wicksell, the semi-acknowledged
father of modern central banking theory, built his big book around the premise that in a credit-money
system, inflation would give private banks no reason to raise interest rates.
And in fact this is what we see. Interest rate spreads are narrow in booms; they widen in crises
and remain wide in downturns.
So crowding out mark two, the ISLM version, requires us to accept both that central banks cannot
control the economically relevant interest rates, and that private banks systematically raise
interest rates when times are good. Again, in a strict gold standard world there might something
to this - banks have to raise rates, their gold reserves are running low - but if we ever lived
in that world it was 150 or 200 years ago or more.
A more natural interpretation of the claim that the economy is at potential, is that any further
increase in demand would just lead to inflation. This is the version of crowding out in better
textbooks, and also the version used by MMT folks. On a certain level, it's obviously correct.
Suppose the amount of money-spending in an economy increases. Then either the quantity of goods
and services increases, or their prices do. There is no third option: The total percent increase
in money spending, must equal the sum of the percent increase in "real" output and the percent
increase in average prices. But how does the balance between higher output and higher prices play
out in real life? One possibility is that potential output is a hard line: each dollar of spending
up to there increases real output one for one, and leaves prices unchanged; each dollar of spending
above there increases prices one for one and leaves output unchanged. Alternatively, we might
imagine a smooth curve where as spending increases, a higher fraction of each marginal dollar
translates into higher prices rather than higher output. [2] This is certainly more realistic,
but it invites the question of which point exactly on this curve we call "potential". And it awakens
the great bane of postwar macro – an inflation-output tradeoff, where the respective costs and
benefits must be assessed politically.
Crowding out mark three, the inflation version, is definitely right in some sense - you can't
produce more concrete use values without limit simply by increasing the quantity of money borrowed
by the government (or some other entity). But we have to ask first, positively, when we will see
this inflation, and second, normatively, how we value lower inflation vs higher output and income.
In the post-1980s orthodoxy, we as society are never supposed to face these questions. They
are settled for us by the central bank. This is the fourth, and probably most politically salient,
version of crowding out: higher government spending will cause the central bank to raise interest
rates. This is the practical content of the textbook story, and in fact newer textbooks replace
the LM curve - where the interest rate is in some sense endogenous - with a straight line at whatever
interest rate is chosen by the central bank. In the more sophisticated textbooks, this becomes
a central bank reaction function - the central bank's actions change from being policy choices,
to a fundamental law of the economic universe. The master parable for this story is the 1990s,
when the Clinton administration came in with big plans for stimulus, only to be slapped down by
Alan Greenspan, who warned that any increase in public spending would be offset by a contractionary
shift by the federal reserve. But once Clinton made the walk to Canossa and embraced deficit reduction,
Greenspan's fed rewarded him with low rates, substituting private investment in equal measure
for the foregone public spending. In the current contest, this means: Any increase in federal
borrowing will be offset one for one by a fall in private investment - because the Fed will raise
rates enough to make it happen.
This story is crowding out mark four. It depends, first, on what the central bank reaction
function actually is - how confident are we that monetary policy will respond in a direct, predictable
way to changes in the federal budget balance or to shifts in demand? (The more attention we pay
to how the monetary sausage gets made, the less confident we are likely to be.) And second, on
whether the central bank really has the power to reliably offset shifts in fiscal policy. In the
textbooks this is taken for granted but there are reasons for doubt. It's also not clear why the
actions of the central bank should be described as crowding out by fiscal policy. The central
bank's policy rule is not a law of nature. Unless there is some other reason to think expansionary
policy can't work, it's not much of an argument to say the Fed won't allow it. We end up with
something like: "Why can't we have deficit-financed nice things?" "Because the economy is at potential
– any more public spending will just crowd out private spending." "How will it be crowded out
exactly?" "Interest rates will rise." "Why will they rise?" "Because the federal reserve will
tighten." "Why will they tighten?" "Because the economy is at potential."
Suppose we take the central bank out of the picture. Suppose we allow supply constraints to
bind on their own, instead of being anticipated by the central planners at the Fed. What would
happen as demand pushed up against the limits of productive capacity? One answer, again, is rising
inflation. But we shouldn't expect prices to all rise in lockstep. Supply constraints don't mean
that production growth halts at once; rather, bottlenecks develop in specific areas. So we should
expect inflation to begin with rising prices for inputs in inelastic supply - land, oil, above
all labor. Textbook models typically include a Phillips curve, with low unemployment leading to
rising wages, which in turn are passed on to higher prices.
But why should they be passed on completely? It's easy to imagine reasons why prices don't
respond fully or immediately to changes in wages. In which case, as I've discussed before, rising
wages will result in an increase in the wage share. Some people will object that such effects
can only be temporary. I'm not sure this makes sense - why shouldn't labor, like anything else,
be relatively more expensive in a world where it is relatively more scarce? But even if you think
that over the long-term the wage share is entirely set on the supply side, the transition from
one "fundamental" wage share to another still has to involve a period of wages rising faster or
slower than productivity growth - which in a Phillips curve world, means a period above or below
full employment.
We don't hear as much about the labor share as the fundamental supply constraint, compared
with savings, inflation or interest rates. But it comes right out of the logic of standard models.
To get to crowding out mark five, though, we have to take one more step. We have to also postulate
that demand in the economy is profit-led - that a distributional shift from profits toward wages
reduces desired investment by more than it increases desired consumption. Whether (or which) real
economies display wage-led or profit-led demand is a subject of vigorous debate in heterodox macro.
But there's no need to adjudicate that now. Right now I'm just interested in what crowding out
could possibly mean.
Demand can affect distribution only if wage increases are not fully passed on to prices. One
reason this might happen is that in an open economy, businesses lack pricing power; if they try
to pass on increased costs, they'll lose market share to imports. Follow that logic to its endpoint
and there are no supply constraints - any increase in spending that can't be satisfied by domestic
production is met by imports instead. For an ideal small, open economy potential output is no
more relevant than the grocery store's inventory is for an individual household when we go shopping.
Instead, like the household, the small open economy faces a budget constraint or a financing constraint
- how much it can buy depends on how much it can pay for.
Needless to say, we needn't go to that extreme to imagine a binding external constraint. It's
quite reasonable to suppose that, thanks to dependence on imported inputs and/or demand for imported
consumption goods, output can't rise without higher imports. And a country may well run out of
foreign exchange before it runs out of domestic savings, finance or productive capacity. This
is the idea behind multiple gap models in development economics, or balance of payments constrained
growth. It also seems like the direction orthodoxy is heading in the eurozone, where competitiveness
is bidding to replace inflation as the overriding concern of macro policy.
Crowding out mark six says that any increase in demand from the government sector will absorb
scarce foreign exchange that will no longer be available to private sector. How relevant it is
depends on how inelastic import demand is, the extent to which the country as a whole faces a
binding budget or credit constraint and, what concrete form that constraint faces - what actually
happens if international creditors are stiffed, or worry they might be? But the general logic
is that higher spending will lead to a higher trade deficit, which at some point can no longer
be financed.
So now we have six forms of crowding out:
1. Government competes with business for fixed saving.
2. Government competes with business for scarce liquidity.
3. Increased spending would lead to higher inflation.
4. Increased spending would cause the central bank to raise interest rates.
5. Overfull employment would lead to overfast wage increases.
6. Increased spending would lead to a higher trade deficit.
The next question is: Is there any reason, even in principle, to worry about any of these outcomes
in the US today? We can decisively set aside the first, which is logically incoherent, and confidently
set aside the second, which doesn't fit a credit-money economy in which government liabilities
are the most liquid asset. But the other four certainly could, in principle, reflect real limits
on expansionary policy. The question is: In the US in 2017, are higher inflation, higher interest
rates, higher wages or a weaker balance of payments position problems we need to worry about?
Are they even problems at all?
First, higher inflation. This is the most natural place to look for the costs of demand pushing
up against capacity limits. In some situations you'd want to ask how much inflation, exactly,
would come from erring on the side of overexpansion, and how costly that higher inflation would
be against the benefits of lower unemployment. But we don't have to ask that question right now,
because inflation is by conventional measures, too low; so higher inflation isn't a cost of expansionary
policy, but an additional benefit. The problem is even worse for Krugman, who has been calling
for years now for a higher inflation target, usually 4 percent. You can't support higher inflation
without supporting the concrete action needed to bring it about, namely, a period of aggregate
spending in excess of potential. [2] Now you might say that changing the inflation target is the
responsibility of the Fed, not the fiscal authorities. But even leaving aside the question of
democratic accountability, it's hard to take this response seriously when we've spent the last
eight years watching the Fed miss its existing target; setting a new higher target isn't going
to make a difference unless something else happens to raise demand. I just don't see how you can
write "What do we want? Four percent! When do we want it? Now!" and then turn around and object
to expansionary fiscal policy on the grounds that it might be inflationary.
OK, but what if the Fed does raise rates in response to any increase in the federal budget
deficit, as many observers expect? Again, if you think that more expansionary policy is otherwise
desirable, it would seem that your problem here is with the Fed. But set that aside, and assume
our choice is between a baseline 2018-2020, and an alternative with the same GDP but with higher
budget deficits and higher interest rates. (This is the worst case for crowding out.) Which do
we prefer? In the old days, the low-deficit, low-interest world would have been the only respectable
choice: Private investment is obviously preferable to whatever government deficits might finance.
(And to be fair, in the actual 2018-2020, they will mostly be financing high-end tax cuts.) But
as Brad DeLong points out, the calculation is different today. Higher interest rates are now a
blessing, not a curse, because they create more running room for the Fed to respond to a downturn.
[3] In the second scenario, there will be some help from conventional monetary policy in the next
recession, for whatever it's worth; in the first scenario there will be no help at all. And one
thing we've surely learned since 2008 is the costs of cyclical downturns are much larger than
previously believed. So here again, what is traditionally considered a costs of pushing past supply
constraints turns out on closer examination to be a benefit.
Economism is
reduction of all
social facts to
economic
dimensions. The term is often used to criticize economics as an
ideology, in which
supply and
demand are the only important factors in decisions, and outstrip or permit ignoring all
other factors.
It is believed to be a side effect of
neoclassical economics and blind faith in an "invisible
hand" or "laissez-faire"
means of making decisions, extended far beyond controlled and regulated markets, and used to
make political and military decisions.
Conventional ethics would play no role in
decisions under pure economism, except insofar as supply would be withheld, demand curtailed,
by moral choices of individuals. Thus, critics of economism insist on
political and other
cultural dimensions in
society.
Empirical studies reporting false reports are an unfortunate
fact of life. I'm surprised that Noah Smith did not cite John
Ioannnidis's paper on biomedical studies: "Why most published
research findings are false." journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124
Usually the problem is misuse of statistical methods, for
example by data dredging or other data-dependent activities,
rather than say misinterpreting the results of a significance
test.
It's Not Just Unfair: Inequality Is a Threat to Our
Governance
By ANGUS DEATON
THE CRISIS OF THE MIDDLE-CLASS CONSTITUTION
Why Economic Inequality Threatens Our Republic
By Ganesh Sitaraman
President Obama labeled income inequality "the defining
challenge of our time." But why exactly? And why "our time"
especially? In part because we now know just how much goes to
the very top of the income distribution, and beyond that, we
know that recent economic growth, which has been anemic in
any case, has accrued mostly to those who were already
well-heeled, leaving stagnation or worse for many Americans.
But why is this a problem?
Why am I hurt if Mark Zuckerberg develops Facebook, and
gets rich on the proceeds? Some care about the unfairness of
income inequality itself, some care about the loss of upward
mobility and declining opportunities for our kids and some
care about how people get rich - hard work and innovation are
O.K., but theft, legal or otherwise, is not. Yet there is one
threat of inequality that is widely feared, and that has been
debated for thousands of years, which is that inequality can
undermine governance. In his fine book, both history and call
to arms, Ganesh Sitaraman argues that the contemporary
explosion of inequality will destroy the American
Constitution, which is and was premised on the existence of a
large and thriving middle class. He has done us all a great
service, taking an issue of overwhelming public importance,
delving into its history, helping understand how our
forebears handled it and building a platform to think about
it today.
As recognized since ancient times, the coexistence of very
rich and very poor leads to two possibilities, neither a
happy one. The rich can rule alone, disenfranchising or even
enslaving the poor, or the poor can rise up and confiscate
the wealth of the rich. The rich tend to see themselves as
better than the poor, a proclivity that is enhanced and even
socially sanctioned in modern meritocracies. The poor, with
little prospect of economic improvement and no access to
political power, "might turn to a demagogue who would
overthrow the government - only to become a tyrant. Oligarchy
or tyranny, economic inequality meant the end of the
republic."
Some constitutions were written to contain inequalities.
In Rome, the patricians ruled, but could be overruled by
plebeian tribunes whose role was to protect the poor. There
are constitutions with lords and commoners in separate
chambers, each with well-defined powers. Sitaraman calls
these "class warfare constitutions," and argues that the
founding fathers of the United States found another way, a
republic of equals. The middle classes, who according to
David Hume were obsessed neither with pleasure-seeking, as
were the rich, nor with meeting basic necessities, as were
the poor, and were thus amenable to reason, could be a firm
basis for a republic run in the public interest. There is
some sketchy evidence that income and wealth inequality was
indeed low in the 18th century, but the crucial point is that
early America was an agrarian society of cultivators with an
open frontier. No one needed to be poor when land was
available in the West.
The founders worried a good deal about people getting too
rich. Jefferson was proud of his achievement in abolishing
the entail and primogeniture in Virginia, writing the laws
that "laid the ax to the root of Pseudoaristocracy." He
called for progressive taxation and, like the other founders,
feared that the inheritance of wealth would lead to the
establishment of an aristocracy. (Contrast this with those
today who simultaneously advocate both equality of
opportunity and the abolition of estate taxes.) Madison tried
to calculate how long the frontier would last, and understood
the threat to the Constitution that industrialization would
bring; many of the founders thought of wage labor as little
better than slavery and hoped that America could remain an
agrarian society.
Of course, the fears about industrialization were
realized, and by the late 19th century, in the Gilded Age,
income inequality had reached levels comparable to those we
see today. In perhaps the most original part of his book,
Sitaraman, an associate professor of law at Vanderbilt Law
School, highlights the achievements of the Progressive
movement, one of whose aims was taming inequality, and which
successfully modified the Constitution. There were four
constitutional amendments in seven years - the direct
election of senators, the franchise for women, the
prohibition of alcohol and the income tax. To which I would
add another reform, the establishment of the Federal Reserve,
which provided a mechanism for handling financial crises
without the need for the government to be bailed out by rich
bankers, as well as the reduction in the tariff, which
favored ordinary people by bringing down the cost of
manufactures. Politics can respond to inequality, and the
Constitution is not set in stone.
What of today, when inequality is back in full force? I am
not persuaded that we can be saved by the return of a
rational and public-spirited middle class, even if I knew
exactly how to identify middle-class people, or to measure
how well they are doing. Nor is it clear, postelection,
whether the threat is an incipient oligarchy or an incipient
populist autocracy; our new president tweets from one to the
other. And European countries, without America's middle-class
Constitution, face some of the same threats, though more from
autocracy than from plutocracy, which their constitutions may
have helped them resist. Yet it is clear that we in the
United States face the looming threat of a takeover of
government by those who would use it to enrich themselves
together with a continuing disenfranchisement of large
segments of the population....
Angus Deaton, a professor emeritus at Princeton, was awarded
the Nobel in economic science in 2015.
As for ".. it is clear that we in the
United States face the looming threat of a takeover of
government by those who would use it to enrich themselves
together with a continuing disenfranchisement of large
segments of the population...."
that was accomplished in 1980 by Reagan. That's why we now
can speak about "a colony nation" within the USA which
encompasses the majority of population.
Inequality and the Lake Wobegon Effect From an interview of F. M. Scherer (Professor Emeritus
in the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard, and former chief economist at the Federal
Trade Commission) at ProMarket:
"Our Efforts to Deal With Tech Firms' Market Dominance in the U.S. Have Been an Abject Failure"
: ...Q: The five largest internet and tech companies-Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, and
Microsoft-have outstanding market share in their markets. Are current antitrust policies and
theories able to deal with the potential problems that arise from the dominant positions of
these companies and the vast data they collect on users?
Our efforts to deal with the problems in the United States have been an abject failure. ...I
might note that Facebook's dominant position in the market is due in part to its role as an
innovator and partly to "network externalities"... Microsoft's dominant position is also attributable
in part to network externalities...
But the antitrust agencies have not taken sufficient measures to remedy abuses of this advantage.
Q: Is there a connection between the growing inequality in the U.S. and concentration, dominant
firms, and winner-take-all markets?
I believe there is. The evidence of rising wealth inequality, especially through the work of
Piketty and co-authors, is compelling. Less well known is evidence compiled at M.I.T. of strongly
rising inequality of compensation, especially at the top executive levels. The nexus has not
to my knowledge been fully articulated.
Here's my hypothesis: In recent decades, most publicly-traded corporations, at least in the
United States, have embraced executive compensation consultants to advise the board of directors
on executive compensation levels. Those consultants provide data on compensation averages and
distributions for companies in peer industries. But then the Lake Wobegon effect goes to work.
The boards say, "Surely, our guy isn't below average," to the average reported by the compensation
consultants becomes the minimum standard for compensation. If each top executive receives at
least the minimum reported pay and often more, the average rises steadily.
Indeed, and here I tread on weaker ground, those compensation costs are built into the costs
considered by companies in their product pricing decisions (in a kind of rent-seeking model),
and so price levels rise to accommodate rising compensation. I might note that this dynamic
applies not only for chief executives, but trickles down to embrace most of companies' management
personnel. ...
As I said a couple days ago, "Good to see economists finally addressing issues that John Kenneth
Galbraith raised 50 years ago...but were largely ignored since then by 'librul' economists
who didn't want to cross the folks who had funded their academic chairs."
For the past 40 years, corporate strategic planning has been all about market dominance.
Back in the late 1970s Harvard Business School professor Michael Porter was all the rage along
with the Boston Consulting Group, Mitt Romney's Bain Capital, and GE's Jack Welch. the mantra
was that if you couldn't dominate a market, best get out. Weaker players were tolerated mostly
to allay anti-trust intrusion.
Meanwhile, Republicans tacitly supported it, Democrats turned a blind eye, and 'librul'
economists were off doing whatever they do.
The text on Industrial Organization when I was an undergrad was by Scherer. Of course Jean
Tirole has also became a leading star in this area. If Scherer thinks anti-trust has fallen
short - everyone involved should take notic.
i don't think either sanders or clinton are particularly strong when it comes to trust busting.
warren is somewhat better but is still overly focused on a narrow slice of anti-competitive
corporate culture, imo.
Your love affair with Hamon is strange given that Mélenchon has stronger positions on income
inequality and corporate capture. He is also beating Hamon in the polls.
Evidence in support of Sherer's hypothesis can be found in Tom DiPrete et al's 2010 article
in AJS: Compensation Benchmarking, Leapfrogs, and the Surge in Executive Pay. They write: "Scholars
frequently argue whether the sharp rise in chief executive officer (CEO) pay in recent years
is "efficient" or is a consequence of "rent extraction" because of the failure of corporate
governance in individual firms. This article argues that governance failure must be conceptualized
at the market rather than the firm level because excessive pay increases for even relatively
few CEOs a year spread to other firms through the cognitively and rhetorically constructed
compensation networks of "peer groups," which are used in the benchmarking process to negotiate
the compensation of CEOs. Counterfactual simulation based on Standard and Poor's ExecuComp
data demonstrates that the effects of CEO "leapfrogging" potentially explain a considerable
fraction of the overall upward movement of executive compensation since the early 1990s."
https://academiccommons.columbia.edu/catalog/ac%3A139538
To say those companies owe their fortunes in part to network externalities is ... an understatement.
With the scalability and mass customizability of web and software, these industries are
almost perfectly structured for natural monopolies. For many tech entrepreneurs, the race isnt
to see who can profit from superior innovation but rather who can be first with innovative
enough solutions to dominate market spaces and limit opportunities for true competitors to
emerge.
Do we think Amazon continues to operate at a zero net profit margin because they are nice?
No. They do so because they want to be the dominant internet retailer of everything.
The question is what could and should be done about this ... and that is a tough one. The
problem with markets with huge network effects is that they naturally gravitate to monopolies.
How to break them without reducing rather than enhancing customer value, and how to do it in
a rapidly evolving tech world? Yeesh.
Actually many web entrepreneurs understood the game in the 1990s much better than sanjait:
"For many tech entrepreneurs, the race isn't to see who can profit from superior innovation
but rather who can be first with innovative enough solutions to SELL THEIR vaporware to those
dominating market spaces and limit opportunities for true competition to emerge."
In the 1990s much of the tech boom was focused on selling to monopolists, because becoming
a monopolist was already recognized to be futile for most market entrants.
No surprise that politicians remained oblivious...as did economists.
I would distinguish between "type 1" and "type 2" vaporware - type 1 being products that cannot
and will not be delivered as announced, where the announcement is only to "fool" customers
into not using competitors, and type 2 being products that just take much longer and come much
later than initially announced - where it is often not clear whether the announcement was too
optimistic or deliberately oversold in a type 1 kind of way.
I would not say that the big successful companies founded their success on (type 1) vaporware.
E.g. MS profited from very strong network effects (Office formats and document compatibility
forcing frequent Windows/Office upgrades in the user base), likewise other vendors whose proprietary
file formats were established as the quasi standard for document exchange and product delivery
(e.g. Adobe PDF, Flash as a more general consumer visible example). Then e.g. SAP and Oracle
with strong tie-in between business software, data bases, business data integration across
organizations, and workforce skills to implement, operate, and use the software.
The common theme is massive user-side investment in the data format/protocol infrastructure
("ecosystem"). It is not much different from power and water lines, where several different
"competing" infrastructures are simply not economically or even physically viable.
"Apple, Google, Amazon, Facebook, and Microsoft-have outstanding market share in their markets."
Only by defining markets very very narrowly is that true.
Samsung sells many times the highly equivalent products Apple sells. Many more smart phones
and an equal number of phones with texting that Apple does not offer. But Samsung does not
have even 50% of the global market. For TVs, Apple is a footnote in the overall TV product
market, selling few TVs if any, no cable or OTA DVRs, no DVD/BD players, and far from a dominant
share of streaming video.
The only place Apple dominates is when selling stuff with the word Apple and an icon of
an apple with a bite out of it, and even then, the Beatles compete selling music products with
equivalent logos.
Amazon has less than half the Internet general merchandise market, which is in turn a fraction
of the Internet market in everything, and that is a fraction of the total market in stuff just
in the US and EU, and the US and EU are less than half the global market.
Ditto for the rest.
The only dominance these companies have is in driving disruptive growth in investment by
customers. They have done this by selling at profit margins that are half that of the incumbents.
Google ads sell for much less than ads on Yahoo which sold for less than ads in newspapers
and magazines which sold for less per customer than fliers. Fliers still compete with Google
because they are better targeted. In dense residential areas people go door to door stuffing
fliers in your door, and in suburban and rural areas they go by US mail into your mailbox.
Google sells Geospatial services today at a fraction of the price in 2000 when such services
were offered by established providers getting most of their revenue from government, but at
a fairly high price. Google invested lots of labor cost and bought high labor cost assets to
build and update its own database that it sell access to for fractions of a penny per image,
payments coming from businesses paying to be seen by possible customers that are in the area
of the business. The difference is in scale, exploiting the extremely high elasticity of demand
for images. At $1 per day to see images and maps, maybe there are a million customers. But
if using the service with businesses getting to put ten cents of ads in front of your face
is the price, demand is probably a hundred million customers, so the much lower price generates
ten times the revenue, but with maybe five times the investment.
Google by making high investment on an ongoing basic and selling at lower prices instead
of the MBA higher price makes more money for Google if it gets one or two orders of magnitude
more customers.
But Google does not do what MBAs advise and hike prices and cut investment once they have
over 50% of the market. Nor does Amazon, Apple, et al when they gain over 50% of their narrow
market.
And no one has a monopoly in mapping and Geospatial data. While free paper maps are far
fewer, you will find paper maps for sale in millions of stores. And at government tourist centers,
you will find free maps with lots of ads targeted at people shopping for the things visitors
are shopping for. Ie, Google does not control the market for free maps with ads on them.
Economy of scale by automation at large scale. The 'G' company has acquired a pretty strong
reputation for "bad" or "nonexistent" in-person customer service, and rather losing customers
than funding the cost of retaining them and addressing their issues/complaints with in-person
support. Perhaps this works only in a growing market. But the underlying reason is undoubtedly
that their success and relatively low cost is only possible with almost full automation. As
soon as humans have to come into the picture, the cost will go up significantly due to scaling
issues.
Conversely, you will see upon closer inspection that these companies are mostly spectacularly
successful, and limit their endeavors, in areas where almost full automation at large scale
is possible, while still being able to generate revenue that supports the marginal costs.
This is the monopolists' argument...redefine their market in such a way as to show that there
is still lots of competition: an oligopoly of soft drink companies could claim that there is
still plenty of competition if you include water. Google can claim that there is still competition
from encyclopedias at libraries! AT&T and Verizon, who dominate cellular transmission, can
cite all sorts of other ways for people to communicate with each other...heck, you can still
write letters or shout across the street!
At its core, what we refer to as a monopoly is some offering (it can be any offering but generally
we think only of commercial offerings) that has by any means available within the limits of
law obtained a market position that it then uses to drive out most existing competitors and
keep out new ones, therefore either maintaining or increasing its monopoly.
Achieving a monopoly status (as long as it's done by staying within the limits of law) isn't
the issue. The issue is whether after having done so, the monopoly should be sustained by law.
There are indeed many ways to define monopoly or lack thereof as Mulp points out & JohnH
elaborates (below). The opposing arguments of Muop & JohnH are both just points of view, but
the law on the subject is what counts... not individual points of view.
Unfortunately the law isn't explicit in defining a monopoly.. what constitutes monopoly,
the level of market share, or whether it's used to drive out existing competition or prevent
new competition.
The law we have was based on a determination of whether an offering is "in restraint of
trade"... that is limiting competition such that it enabled the monopoly to extract "rents"
which it would otherwise be unable to do if competition were sufficient.
There's a problem however in-as-much-as a monopoly may be established purely by massive
investments of capital.. capital which no other group is willing to put to the same endeavor
to compete.
Competitive capital to compete will necessarily have to return a worthwhile roi, and thus
until the monopoly is extracting sufficiently large enough "rents" the competitive use of capital
may most often or never be sufficiently high enough to obtain the requisite roi required, and
thus will not be applied to compete with the monopoly.
BUT, when "rent" extraction becomes sufficiently high enough to make competitive capital
available to compete for part of that rent.. hence reducing it, it always does so, and the
monopoly disappears in due course.
Its only when the monopoly can restrict any competing capital from competing for part of
those rents that the law on monopolies becomes relevant, and thus how to define what constitutes
a monopoly.
Extracting "rents" from monopoly power is in fact the only reason monopolies exist (incentive
to monopolize) and it's the only reason we have patent laws that the State provides to give
monopoly power that enables it to extract "rents"... though the rents can only be extracted
legitimately for 17 or 19 years (I forget what the most recent time limit on patents is). Patent
law is another subject.
The law is vague... using the Microsoft Anti-trust case as just one example, the trail court
found Microsoft guilty, but the appeals court overturned the trial court. The Department of
Justice and Microsoft reached a settlement and none of the States appealed the appeals court's
decision or it's agreement of settlement between the DOJ and Microsoft.
If mulp and JohnH want to argue the monopoly topic that's fine, but it is of zero value
to settling anything or finding agreement on the issues. Both of them are arguing what constitutes
a monopoly when in fact that's irrelevant. Monopolies aren't illegal by any definition of law
or history of law. The issue is whether having such monopoly is used to restrain competition
for being pursued.... it has to be an active restraint... not just because competitors want
to compete at lower capital investment than is required to complete.
It's Not Just Unfair: Inequality Is a Threat to Our Governance
By ANGUS DEATON
THE CRISIS OF THE MIDDLE-CLASS CONSTITUTION
Why Economic Inequality Threatens Our Republic
By Ganesh Sitaraman
President Obama labeled income inequality "the defining challenge of our time." But why
exactly? And why "our time" especially? In part because we now know just how much goes to the
very top of the income distribution, and beyond that, we know that recent economic growth,
which has been anemic in any case, has accrued mostly to those who were already well-heeled,
leaving stagnation or worse for many Americans. But why is this a problem?
Why am I hurt if Mark Zuckerberg develops Facebook, and gets rich on the proceeds? Some
care about the unfairness of income inequality itself, some care about the loss of upward mobility
and declining opportunities for our kids and some care about how people get rich - hard work
and innovation are O.K., but theft, legal or otherwise, is not. Yet there is one threat of
inequality that is widely feared, and that has been debated for thousands of years, which is
that inequality can undermine governance. In his fine book, both history and call to arms,
Ganesh Sitaraman argues that the contemporary explosion of inequality will destroy the American
Constitution, which is and was premised on the existence of a large and thriving middle class.
He has done us all a great service, taking an issue of overwhelming public importance, delving
into its history, helping understand how our forebears handled it and building a platform to
think about it today.
As recognized since ancient times, the coexistence of very rich and very poor leads to two
possibilities, neither a happy one. The rich can rule alone, disenfranchising or even enslaving
the poor, or the poor can rise up and confiscate the wealth of the rich. The rich tend to see
themselves as better than the poor, a proclivity that is enhanced and even socially sanctioned
in modern meritocracies. The poor, with little prospect of economic improvement and no access
to political power, "might turn to a demagogue who would overthrow the government - only to
become a tyrant. Oligarchy or tyranny, economic inequality meant the end of the republic."
Some constitutions were written to contain inequalities. In Rome, the patricians ruled,
but could be overruled by plebeian tribunes whose role was to protect the poor. There are constitutions
with lords and commoners in separate chambers, each with well-defined powers. Sitaraman calls
these "class warfare constitutions," and argues that the founding fathers of the United States
found another way, a republic of equals. The middle classes, who according to David Hume were
obsessed neither with pleasure-seeking, as were the rich, nor with meeting basic necessities,
as were the poor, and were thus amenable to reason, could be a firm basis for a republic run
in the public interest. There is some sketchy evidence that income and wealth inequality was
indeed low in the 18th century, but the crucial point is that early America was an agrarian
society of cultivators with an open frontier. No one needed to be poor when land was available
in the West.
The founders worried a good deal about people getting too rich. Jefferson was proud of his
achievement in abolishing the entail and primogeniture in Virginia, writing the laws that "laid
the ax to the root of Pseudoaristocracy." He called for progressive taxation and, like the
other founders, feared that the inheritance of wealth would lead to the establishment of an
aristocracy. (Contrast this with those today who simultaneously advocate both equality of opportunity
and the abolition of estate taxes.) Madison tried to calculate how long the frontier would
last, and understood the threat to the Constitution that industrialization would bring; many
of the founders thought of wage labor as little better than slavery and hoped that America
could remain an agrarian society.
Of course, the fears about industrialization were realized, and by the late 19th century,
in the Gilded Age, income inequality had reached levels comparable to those we see today. In
perhaps the most original part of his book, Sitaraman, an associate professor of law at Vanderbilt
Law School, highlights the achievements of the Progressive movement, one of whose aims was
taming inequality, and which successfully modified the Constitution. There were four constitutional
amendments in seven years - the direct election of senators, the franchise for women, the prohibition
of alcohol and the income tax. To which I would add another reform, the establishment of the
Federal Reserve, which provided a mechanism for handling financial crises without the need
for the government to be bailed out by rich bankers, as well as the reduction in the tariff,
which favored ordinary people by bringing down the cost of manufactures. Politics can respond
to inequality, and the Constitution is not set in stone.
What of today, when inequality is back in full force? I am not persuaded that we can be
saved by the return of a rational and public-spirited middle class, even if I knew exactly
how to identify middle-class people, or to measure how well they are doing. Nor is it clear,
postelection, whether the threat is an incipient oligarchy or an incipient populist autocracy;
our new president tweets from one to the other. And European countries, without America's middle-class
Constitution, face some of the same threats, though more from autocracy than from plutocracy,
which their constitutions may have helped them resist. Yet it is clear that we in the United
States face the looming threat of a takeover of government by those who would use it to enrich
themselves together with a continuing disenfranchisement of large segments of the population....
Angus Deaton, a professor emeritus at Princeton, was awarded the Nobel in economic science
in 2015.
Network advantage - it is increasingly the dominant paradigm. I think we need to combat vertical
integration here - separate the ownership of the standard from the implementation of the standard.
It will take a major rethink but it is the secret of the success of the internet itself.
I keep saying the benefit of computers is hiding in plain sight. Computers make administration
scalable, in a way that it never was before - the cost savings are in avoiding cost increases
as complexity increases with size. That is why they are so hard to measure. The measure if
you like is increasing market concentration.
Then you would have to require that e.g. software products have to conform to a public standard,
and only the standard.
A lot of products with network effects have proprietary features that are not in the/a standard,
but which provide a considerable "value add".
Are you proposing that companies should be forced to "open source" all the details of their
products related to data formats and interoperation, and at what time during the lifecycle
from conception, development, rollout, incremental change, etc.?
Many such "features" cannot even be documented independently from the concrete implementation
(as they are developed now). It would also need a change in the specification and development
process, that a publicizable spec is produced first, and then the product only implements exactly
what is in the spec.
New research identifies a 'sea of despair' among white,
working-class Americans
By Joel Achenbach and Dan Keating - Washington Post
Sickness and early death in the white working class could
be rooted in poor job prospects for less-educated young
people as they first enter the labor market, a situation that
compounds over time through family dysfunction, social
isolation, addiction, obesity and other pathologies,
according to a study published Thursday by two prominent
economists.
Anne Case and Angus Deaton garnered national headlines in
2015 when they reported that the death rate of midlife
non-Hispanic white Americans had risen steadily since 1999 in
contrast with the death rates of blacks, Hispanics and
Europeans. Their new study extends the data by two years and
shows that whatever is driving the mortality spike is not
easing up.
The two Princeton professors say the trend affects whites
of both sexes and is happening nearly everywhere in the
country. Education level is significant: People with a
college degree report better health and happiness than those
with only some college, who in turn are doing much better
than those who never went.
[Graph]
Offering what they call a tentative but "plausible"
explanation, they write that less-educated white Americans
who struggle in the job market in early adulthood are likely
to experience a "cumulative disadvantage" over time, with
health and personal problems that often lead to drug
overdoses, alcohol-related liver disease and suicide.
"Ultimately, we see our story as about the collapse of the
white, high-school-educated working class after its heyday in
the early 1970s, and the pathologies that accompany that
decline," they conclude.
The study comes as Congress debates how to dismantle parts
of the Affordable Care Act. Case and Deaton report that poor
health is becoming more common for each new generation of
middle-aged, less-educated white Americans. And they are
going downhill faster.
In a teleconference with reporters this week, Case said
the new research found a "sea of despair" across America. A
striking feature is the rise in physical pain. The pattern
does not follow short-term economic cycles but reflects a
long-term disintegration of job prospects.
"You used to be able to get a really good job with a high
school diploma. A job with on-the-job training, a job with
benefits. You could expect to move up," she said.
The nation's obesity epidemic may be another sign of
stress and physical pain, she continued: "People may want to
soothe the beast. They may do that with alcohol, they may do
that with drugs, they may do that with food."
Similarly, Deaton cited suicide as an action that could be
triggered not by a single event but by a cumulative series of
disappointments: "Your family life has fallen apart, you
don't know your kids anymore, all the things you expected
when you started out your life just haven't happened at all."
[Graph]
The economists say that there is no obvious solution but
that a starting point would be limiting the overuse of
opioids, which killed more than 30,000 Americans in 2015.
The two will present their study on Friday at the
Brookings Institution.
"Their paper documents some facts. What is the story
behind those facts is a matter of speculation," said Adriana
Lleras-Muney, a University of California at Los Angeles
economics professor, who will also speak at Brookings.
She noted that less-educated white Americans tend to be
strikingly pessimistic when interviewed about their
prospects.
"It's just a background of continuous decline. You're
worse off than your parents," Lleras-Muney said. "Whereas for
Hispanics, or immigrants like myself" - she is from Colombia
- "or blacks, yes, circumstances are bad, but they've been
getting better."
David Cutler, an economics professor at Harvard who also
will be discussing the paper at Brookings, said the declining
health of white, working-class Americans suggests that
Republican plans to replace the Affordable Care Act are akin
to bleeding a sick patient. As he put it, "Treat the fever by
causing an even bigger fever."
Whites continue to have longer life expectancy than
African Americans and lower death rates, but that gap has
narrowed since the late 1990s. The picture may have shifted
again around the Great Recession, however: Graphs
accompanying the new paper suggest that death rates for
blacks with only a high school education began rising around
2010 in many age groups, as if following the trend that began
about a decade earlier among whites.
White men continue to die at higher rates than white women
in every age group. But because women started with lower
death rates, the recent mortality increase reflects a greater
change in their likelihood of dying early. The numbers
reported by Case and Deaton suggest that white men today are
about twice as likely as they were in 1999 to die from one of
the "diseases of despair," while women are about four times
as likely....
"... " The chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Devin Nunes, R-Calif., does not know "for sure" whether President Donald Trump or members of his transition team were even on the phone calls or other communications now being cited as partial vindication for the president's wiretapping claims against the Obama administration, according to a spokesperson. ..."
"... I think im1dc along with a couple of other commenters here symbolize perfectly well the problem Democratic leadership got on themselves. ..."
"... He got the taste of sniffing Russian pants and now he can't stop, despite the fact that all his knowledge of Russia came from US media. Kind of political graphomania, of some sort. Or, incontinence, if you wish. ..."
"... In other words now in the USA hysteria became detached from the facts and has now its own life. Obtained classic witch hunt dynamics. ..."
"... "The principal problem for Democrats is that so many media figures and online charlatans are personally benefiting from feeding the base increasingly unhinged, fact-free conspiracies - just as right-wing media polemicists did after both Bill Clinton and Obama were elected - that there are now millions of partisan soldiers absolutely convinced of a Trump/Russia conspiracy for which, at least as of now, there is no evidence. ..."
"... And they are all waiting for the day, which they regard as inevitable and imminent, when this theory will be proven and Trump will be removed. ..."
"... Key Democratic officials are clearly worried about the expectations that have been purposely stoked and are now trying to tamp them down. Many of them have tried to signal that the beliefs the base has been led to adopt have no basis in reason or evidence. ..."
"Intel chair Devin Nunes unsure if Trump associates were
directly surveilled"
By Mike Levine...Mar 23, 2017...5:24 PM ET
" The chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, Devin
Nunes, R-Calif., does not know "for sure" whether President
Donald Trump or members of his transition team were even on
the phone calls or other communications now being cited as
partial vindication for the president's wiretapping claims
against the Obama administration, according to a
spokesperson.
"He said he'll have to get all the documents he requested
from the [intelligence community] about this before he knows
for sure," a spokesperson for Nunes said Thursday..."
I think im1dc along with a couple of other commenters here
symbolize perfectly well the problem Democratic leadership
got on themselves.
He got the taste of sniffing Russian pants and now he
can't stop, despite the fact that all his knowledge of Russia
came from US media. Kind of political graphomania, of some
sort. Or, incontinence, if you wish.
In other words now in the USA hysteria became detached
from the facts and has now its own life. Obtained classic
witch hunt dynamics.
It became by-and-large out of control of Democratic
leadership, and they feel that they became hostages of it.
But they can't call the dogs back.
It was a dirty but effective trick to avoid sacking
Democratic Party failed, corrupt neoliberal leadership
(Clinton wing of the party). It worked, but it come with a
price.
As Glenn Greenwald noted.
"The principal problem for Democrats is that so many media
figures and online charlatans are personally benefiting from
feeding the base increasingly unhinged, fact-free
conspiracies - just as right-wing media polemicists did after
both Bill Clinton and Obama were elected - that there are now
millions of partisan soldiers absolutely convinced of a
Trump/Russia conspiracy for which, at least as of now, there
is no evidence.
And they are all waiting for the day, which they regard as
inevitable and imminent, when this theory will be proven and
Trump will be removed.
Key Democratic officials are clearly worried about the
expectations that have been purposely stoked and are now
trying to tamp them down. Many of them have tried to signal
that the beliefs the base has been led to adopt have no basis
in reason or evidence.
The latest official to throw cold water on the MSNBC-led
circus is President Obama's former acting CIA chief Michael
Morell. What makes him particularly notable in this context
is that Morell was one of Clinton's most vocal CIA
surrogates. In August, he not only endorsed Clinton in the
pages of the New York Times but also became the first high
official to explicitly accuse Trump of disloyalty, claiming,
"In the intelligence business, we would say that Mr. Putin
had recruited Mr. Trump as an unwitting agent of the Russian
Federation."
But on Wednesday night, Morell appeared at an intelligence
community forum to "cast doubt" on "allegations that members
of the Trump campaign colluded with Russia." "On the question
of the Trump campaign conspiring with the Russians here,
there is smoke, but there is no fire at all," he said,
adding, "There's no little campfire, there's no little
candle, there's no spark. And there's a lot of people looking
for it."
US officials: Info suggests Trump associates may have
coordinated with Russians
By Pamela Brown, Evan Perez, Shimon Prokupecz and Jim
Sciutto, CNN
US officials: Trump associates may have coordinated with
Russians 14:11
Washington (CNN) - The FBI has information that indicates
associates of President Donald Trump communicated with
suspected Russian operatives to possibly coordinate the
release of information damaging to Hillary Clinton's
campaign, US officials told CNN.
This is partly what FBI Director James Comey was referring
to when he made a bombshell announcement Monday before
Congress that the FBI is investigating the Trump campaign's
ties to Russia, according to one source.
The FBI is now reviewing that information, which includes
human intelligence, travel, business and phone records and
accounts of in-person meetings, according to those U.S.
officials. The information is raising the suspicions of FBI
counterintelligence investigators that the coordination may
have taken place, though officials cautioned that the
information was not conclusive and that the investigation is
ongoing.
In his statement on Monday Comey said the FBI began
looking into possible coordination between Trump campaign
associates and suspected Russian operatives because the
bureau had gathered "a credible allegation of wrongdoing or
reasonable basis to believe an American may be acting as an
agent of a foreign power."
The White House did not comment and the FBI declined to
comment.
White House press secretary Sean Spicer maintained Monday
after Comey's testimony that there was no evidence to suggest
any collusion took place.
"Investigating it and having proof of it are two different
things," Spicer said.
One law enforcement official said the information in hand
suggests "people connected to the campaign were in contact
and it appeared they were giving the thumbs up to release
information when it was ready." But other U.S. officials who
spoke to CNN say it's premature to draw that inference from
the information gathered so far since it's largely
circumstantial.
The FBI cannot yet prove that collusion took place, but
the information suggesting collusion is now a large focus of
the investigation, the officials said.
The FBI has already been investigating four former Trump
campaign associates -- Michael Flynn, Paul Manafort, Roger
Stone and Carter Page -- for contacts with Russians known to
US intelligence. All four have denied improper contacts and
CNN has not confirmed any of them are the subjects of the
information the FBI is reviewing.
One of the obstacles the sources say the FBI now faces in
finding conclusive intelligence is that communications
between Trump's associates and Russians have ceased in recent
months given the public focus on Russia's alleged ties to the
Trump campaign. Some Russian officials have also changed
their methods of communications, making monitoring more
difficult, the officials said.
Last July, Russian intelligence agencies began
orchestrating the release of hacked emails stolen in a breach
of the Democratic National Committee and associated
organizations, as well as email accounts belonging to Clinton
campaign officials, according to U.S. intelligence agencies.
The Russian operation was also in part focused on the
publication of so-called "fake news" stories aimed at
undermining Hillary Clinton's campaign. But FBI investigators
say they are less focused on the coordination and publication
of those "fake news" stories, in part because those
publications are generally protected free speech.
The release of the stolen emails, meanwhile, transformed
an ordinary cyber-intrusion investigation into a much bigger
case handled by the FBI's counterintelligence division.
FBI counterintelligence investigations are notoriously
lengthy and often involve some of the U.S. government's most
highly classified programs, such as those focused on
intelligence-gathering, which can make it difficult for
investigators to bring criminal charges without exposing
those programs.
Investigators continue to analyze the material and
information from multiple sources for any possible
indications of coordination, according to US officials.
Director Comey in Monday's hearing refused to reveal what
specifically the FBI was looking for or who they're focusing
on.
US officials said the information was not drawn from the
leaked dossier of unverified information compiled by a former
British intelligence official compiled for Trump's political
opponents, though the dossier also suggested coordination
between Trump campaign associates and Russian operatives.
There's little
doubt in my mind that Trump's team did in fact collude with
the Russians, and that the investigation will ultimately come
to the same conclusion. That's when the fun begins, if
impeachment proceedings can be called fun. Trump will deny,
deny, deny that he had any knowledge of the collusion; the
fact that he's a serial liar won't prevent most Republicans
from voting against his impeachment. Only Trump can save us
by doing a Nixon and resigning. He won't though, and we'll be
right back where we are, with one huge exception: we'll have
a proven traitor sitting in the White House, kept there by a
spineless GOP.
Agreed. If in fact the FBI can prove substantial ties between
the Russians and the Trump team co-ordinating the Wikileak
email dump, that has to qualify as "high crimes and
misdemeanors".
And given that, at this point, President
Cheeto is so unpopular, plus the FBI's evidence (yet to be
proven), they would almost have to vote for impeachment or
risk losing re-election in their home districts.
Go make some popcorn, grab your favorite beverage, sit
back and enjoy the sound of them imploding.
Like Whitewater, this investigation will take years and may
well come up empty.
Meanwhile, Democrats can obsess about
how unfair the election was, deny any notion that Hillary was
a lousy candidate, and refuse to figure out how to talk to
working people or come up with any kind of coherent economic
message.
Trump-Putin shows that they are willing to do most any
distraction to keep from having to keep their eye on the
ball!
As a result, Democrats will mostly likely circle the
wagons to foist another mealy mouthed neoliberal on the
electorate in 2020 in the tradition of Gore, Kerry, and
Hillary, a candidate who will almost certainly assure Trump a
second term.
Despite a string of congressional losses, the sclerotic,
corrupt leadership refuses get rid of their losing
leadership. It would appear that Democrats have grown to love
playing Washington Generals to Republicans' Harlem
Globetrotters.
The current requirement for a duopoly assures that there
is always a place for losers.
Mark my words: "The Trump-Putin investigation [will take]
years because [investigators can't] find any wrongdoing from
[Trump-Putin] and so then continued looking into
[Trump-Putin] whenever they could, simply to keep the witch
hunt going."
If they had any evidence beyond innuendo and
hearsay, we would have seen some of it by now.
Trump-Putin has become an elaborate distraction to keep
Democrats from looking honestly at their failure, and to keep
the American public entertained as Trump guts the remnants of
their safety net.
Is Xi Jinping Putin-izing China?
By William Ide and Brian Kopczynski
BEIJING -
One thing that was clear during China's recently concluded
high-level political meetings in Beijing is that Xi Jinping
is the country's uncontested leader and the most powerful
this populous nation has seen in decades.
What is less certain, though, is what he seeks to do with
that authority and whether it means he could be seeking a
third term in office.
Core strengthening
During the recent meetings of the National People's
Congress (NPC) - China's rubber-stamp parliament and the
Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC),
the phrase of "Xi as core leader of the party" was used
repeatedly, coming up before officials discussed a wide range
of topics from the economy to the environment.
The title was not given to Xi's predecessor Hu Jintao -
but Jiang Zemin also had it - and it puts him on par with
former leaders such as Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping.
It is a sign that regardless of length of term or
retirement age, Xi will be around for a good time going
forward, said China leadership analyst Willy Lam.
"So having been designated the core leader, that means he
is virtually emperor for life, and that is the message Xi
Jinping wants to tell the Chinese people and leaders of other
countries, that he will be around to guide the realization of
the Chinese Dream," Lam said.
Succession is a drawn out and politically sensitive
process in China. Since leadership transitions became more
institutionalized in the early 2000s, top leaders have served
two five-year terms as president. Later this year, in October
or November, a party congress (the 19th) will be held.
That meeting will lead to a major reshuffle of the party's
central leadership and is a time, usually, when possible
successors become more certain. However, with Xi in charge
and "core" of the party, there is more uncertainty than ever
about who may be next in line - if anyone.
Succession uncertain
Jean-Pierre Cabestan, a political scientist at Hong Kong
Baptist University, said while Guizhou Party Secretary Chen
Min'er is one individual who has been mentioned as a possible
next in line candidate, some speculate that Xi could wait
until closer to the end of his second term in office around
2022 to allow such a person to emerge.
"It remains to be seen whether Xi Jinping is going to
promote anyone who will really be clearly identified as a
successor," Cabestan said. "The theory is that he wants to
wait another five years before designating a successor."
He adds that in the run up to the party congress later
this year, a politically sensitive time, the emphasis on Xi
as the core is likely to continue and intensify.
The 19th Party Congress will be a time of political
reshuffle and members of the party's top decision-making
body, the Politburo Standing Committee, will be replaced. The
standing committee is made up of anywhere between five and
nine members. There is talk of Xi again shrinking it from the
current seven down to five.
Out of those members, as many as four may be replaced,
analysts said. Almost half of the politburo, a body of 25
members will need to be replaced because of age requirements
and the same goes for the party's powerful Central Military
Commission.
Putin-izing China
Since rising to office in 2012, Xi has been steadily and
aggressively consolidating his power. In addition to serving
as president and head of the party and military, he is also
the head of a number of other leading groups, including the
Central National Security Commission and Leading Group for
Financial and Economic Affairs....
Voice of
America (VOA) is a United States government-funded multimedia
news source and the official external broadcasting
institution of the United States. VOA provides programming
for broadcast on radio, television, and the Internet outside
of the U.S., in English and some foreign languages. The VOA
charter-signed into law in 1976 by President Gerald
Ford-requires VOA to "serve as a consistently reliable and
authoritative source of news" and "be accurate, objective and
comprehensive".
Is Xi Jinping Putin-izing China?
By William Ide and Brian Kopczynski
BEIJING -
[ The VOA charter-signed into law in 1976 by President
Gerald Ford-requires VOA to "serve as a consistently reliable
and authoritative source of news" and "be accurate, objective
and comprehensive":
"... Labor market anyone -- where market power also translates to political power -- if labor has decent market power? Toothless (as in no penalty for crushing unions for 80 years) institutions are the reality. ..."
"... Do you guys ever talk about anything other but what the other guys talk about? ..."
Overview The U.S. economy has a "market power" problem, notwithstanding our strong and extensive
antitrust institutions. The surprising conjunction of the exercise of market power with well-established
antitrust norms, precedents, and enforcement institutions is the central paradox of U.S. competition
policy today.
Market power in the U.S. economy today : As this policy brief explains, the harms from the exercise
of firms' market power may extend beyond individual markets affected to include slower overall economic
growth and increased economic inequality. The implications for future economic productivity and welfare
are troubling, but before detailing these consequences, it is necessary to understand why market
power is a major issue despite well-established antitrust enforcement institutions and legal precedents.
...
Five Walmarts competing with each other would not raise worker wages above the wages Walmart pays.
In fact, it would lower wages.
I remember Milton Friedman's Newsweek columns circa 1970 which are deep behind a paywall so
I can't even find a date and title.
I remember one where he argued for utility deregulation and introduction of competition to
lower prices of electricity and telephone service.
He argued that the PUC was captured by the utility that by regulation made a business profit
only on ROIC plus a small rent on operating costs. By regulation, capital was always depreciating,
thus a power plant or the wires and poles distributing power were constantly falling in value.
The depreciation was an expense plus the labor costs which determined the base rate, with a 8-10%
return on capital, the original labor costs of the power plant and wires and poles minus depreciation
and a rent on operating labor.
So, how does a utility earn higher profit?
It must pay workers with capital to build more assets, more power plants, more and better power
wires and poles. And it must pay more to workers to operate the utility.
In other words, profit increased the more paid to labor. The PUC had to approve these labor
costs as prudent, but paying prevailing union wages was prudent. Thus, the utility could meet
the demands of unions for higher wages, for more people on the job.
Worse, the PUC would get hammered with complaints if the utility was unreliable, so most regulators
approved utility requests to build redundant power plants and build redundant power lines, plus
hire redundant workers who could be put to work recovering from storm damage.
Thus, in Milton Friedman's view, government sanctioning a monopoly resulted in too much, too
reliable service that paid too many workers too much money at the expense of all customers, especially
customers who did not need the reliability.
Worse, the utilities were constantly trying to get customers to buy more to justify building
more capital assets to increase profits.
And even worse, too many workers were paid too much which resulted in too much consumption,
thus too much production, and that created too much demand for labor, driving up wages and increasing
the number of workers, driving up I incomes and consumption.
He noted that the rush to build nuclear power plants was driven by their high capital costs
and nearly purely utility labor operating costs - the utility did not pay for coal for which it
got no business profit.
Thus his efforts to deregulate utilities: cutting labor costs, cutting business profits. He
argued for fewer workers operating utilities and building capital assets, with economic profits
driving investment decisions. Ie, a 20% profit would drive more investment, but a 5% profit would
drive layoffs and cuts in reliability. Any individual who needed reliability would simply pay
more to get higher reliability.
And as utilities were deregulated as he called or as best as it could be done, we have seen
job losses, pay cuts, higher unreliability, sometimes bankruptcy, and other times extremely high
profits, often both at the same time. When PURPA was implemented by States and utilities forced
to sell power generation, then nuclear power plants were sold below the book capital cost, by
these forced sales were deemed takings, so the losses from sales became stranded costs added to
the rate base as depreciation. Meanwhile, as investment in new power plants fell, nuclear power
plants became very profitable as market prices rose. So, the utility was going bankrupt after
forced to sell assets while the assets were generating 20% or more on purchase price returns,
but less than 10% on construction cost.
Friedman made the same argument for passenger airlines. Airlines paid high wages and had large
cabin crews and most were profitable enough to work hard to increase customer demand. They got
approval to offer low fares at the last minute to students and other classes of non-customers.
Thanks to regulation. Then deregulation happened, and every airline but one went bankrupt, service
quality declined, worker wages slashed, crews in the air and on the ground cut.
Friedman argued that everyone benefits from competition and is harmed by monopoly, especially
regulated monopoly, because too many workers are paid too much, and those workers consume too
much, and everyone is forced to pay too much to live.
Thus the creation of free lunch economics: Driving down prices but increasing profits will
make everyone better off as those evil workers get less pay, costing consumers much less.
Workers are not valued consumers. Valued consumers are not workers.
Milton Friedman was not a worker, but a valued intellectual and consumer.
"Five Walmarts competing with each other would not raise worker wages above the wages Walmart
pays. In fact, it would lower wages."
So you accept the Economism view of labor markets where monopsony power does not exist? Sorry
but the labor market evidence questions this perfectly competitive view of labor markets.
Good to see economists finally addressing issues that John Kenneth Galbraith raised 50 years ago...but
were largely ignored since then by 'librul' economists who didn't want to cross the folks who
had funded their academic chairs.
So John Kenneth Galbraith was a right winger? Could you please stop this silly parade that liberal
economists have never talked about what they often talk about. It is beyond pointless.
Oh, please. 'Librul' economists have mostly ignored monopoly and oligopoly for years. And Galbraith
was definitely NOT a conservative, but academic economists largely ignored his valuable contributions.
As a measure of 'librul' concern about monopoly and oligopoly, Krugman talks about this even less
than he talks about inequality...less than twice a year.
Nor are labor economics, trade or public economics. So what?
Competition economics is still a huge and very active topic within the discipline. Indeed,
the last but one Nobel winner, Jean Tirole, works extensively in this area.
"Overview The U.S. economy has a "market power" problem, notwithstanding our strong and extensive
antitrust institutions."
Labor market anyone -- where market power also translates to political power -- if labor
has decent market power? Toothless (as in no penalty for crushing unions for 80 years) institutions
are the reality.
Do you guys ever talk about anything other but what the other guys talk about?
"The U.S. economy has a "market power" problem, notwithstanding our strong and extensive antitrust
institutions. The surprising conjunction of the exercise of market power with well-established
antitrust norms, precedents, and enforcement institutions is the central paradox of U.S. competition
policy today."
Left off the subsequent list of possible explanations is that the first above statement just
may be false.
"... I think Trump's "national neoliberalism" (or as I called it before "bastard neoliberalism") regime is no less corrupt then classic [neoliberalism]. So this mechanism represents "Clear and present danger" to the society. ..."
Frankly, I don't see how institutional tweaks could
greatly improve things. Banning ministers from taking jobs
after leaving office would risk deterring competent and
younger people from politics. And making them personally
liable for bad policy would raise tricky problems of
distinguishing between bad luck and bad judgment, would run
into Campbell's law, and would disincentivize radical
policies, as ministers would prefer to fail
conventionally....
That's a disingenuous statement from Chris Dillow. Washington
revolving doors are the main mechanism of corruption of
government officials under neoliberalism.
I think Trump's "national neoliberalism" (or as I called
it before "bastard neoliberalism") regime is no less corrupt
then classic [neoliberalism]. So this mechanism represents "Clear and present danger" to
the society.
"... Propaganda on the other hand, to borrow from Jacob Stanley, aims to provide information that will deceive people from seeing what is in their best interest. Propaganda provides information that supports a particular political goal or point of view. ..."
"... Take, for example, the issue of welfare benefits. Media as the truth-purveyor type will try and present a rounded and accurate picture of those claiming welfare benefits. Right wing propaganda on the other hand will focus on examples of benefit fraud, or cases where the benefit recipient will be perceived by the reader as taking advantage of the system ..."
"... In both in the UK and US there is a large part of the media which is becoming more and more like a pure propaganda outlet. ..."
"... In the UK and US, we now have propaganda machines that support political ideas that are associated with the far right, and political interests associated with the very wealthy. Their output is governed more and more by whether it assists those two goals. ..."
Let me define two archetypes. The first, which could be called the truth purveyor, is the one
we are familiar with, and which much of the mainstream media (MSM) like to imagine they correspond
to. The aim is provide the best information to readers or viewers. The second is propaganda. One
way of characterising the two archetypes is as follows. Readers have certain interests: objectives,
goals, utilities etc. The truth purveyor will provide readers with the information they need to
pursue those interests. (As exemplified
here , for
example.) Propaganda on the other hand, to
borrow from Jacob Stanley, aims to provide information that will deceive people from
seeing what is in their best interest. Propaganda provides information that supports a particular
political goal or point of view. Take, for example, the issue of welfare benefits. Media as the truth-purveyor type will try
and present a rounded and accurate picture of those claiming welfare benefits. Right wing propaganda
on the other hand will
focus on examples of benefit fraud, or cases where the benefit recipient will be perceived
by the reader as taking advantage of the system , with little or no attempt to put the example
in any kind of context. This slanted coverage is designed to give the impression that benefit
recipients are often scroungers and skivers. The political goal is to make it easier for governments
to cut welfare payments, which in turn may allows taxes to be cut.
These are archetypes, and any media organisation will mix the two to some extent. Many would argue
that even the most truth-purveyor type organisation may still embody certain assumptions or points
of view that distort their readers view of what should be in their best interest. (As argued in
Manufacturing
Consent , for example.) Mediamacro is an example of this. But that should not blind us
to what is happening elsewhere. Lines like "liberals' nostalgia for factual politics seems designed
to mask their own fraught relationship with the truth" [1] suggest nothing new is happening, let's
move on. That would be a huge mistake. It is like saying all news is propaganda, who cares. But
because there are two archetypes, organisations can gradually move from one to another, and that
movement is important. It played a crucial role in the success of Brexit and Trump. In both in the UK and US there is a large part of the media which is becoming more and more
like a pure propaganda outlet. We are used to thinking about propaganda as being associated
with the state, but there is no reason why that has to be the case. In the UK and US, we now
have propaganda machines that support political ideas that are associated with the far right,
and political interests associated with the very wealthy. Their output is governed more and more
by whether it assists those two goals.
How Money Made Us Modern
: About 9,500 years ago in the
Mesopotamian region of Sumer, ancient accountants kept track of
farmers' crops and livestock by stacking small pieces of baked
clay, almost like the tokens used in board games today. One piece
might signify a bushel of grain, while another with a different
shape might represent a farm animal or a jar of olive oil.
Those humble little
ceramic
shapes might not seem have much in common with today's
$100 bill, whose high-tech anti-counterfeiting features include a
special security thread designed to turn pink when illuminated by
ultraviolet light, let alone with credit-card swipes and online
transactions that for many Americans are rapidly taking the place
of cash.
But the roots of those modern modes of payment may lie in the
Sumerians' tokens. ...
The article is poorly researched. The author needs to read
Innes, Graeber, Ingham, Wray and Hudson on the history of
money from the perspective of credit instead of relying on
Davies, who emphasizes commodity money and doesn't
distinguish between bullion and chartal.
I was speaking specifically of the early history in my
comment, but the entire article was rather one-sided. The
debated on the history and nature of money is nuanced and
the author made it seem as through the article presents a
definitive version. The audience to which it is addressed
would not glean that from the article and would likely
come away with a one-sided and simplistic perspective on
the history and nature of money.
Michael Hudson offers a wonderful piece on the ancient
middle east, how they handled oppressive debt, and how, in
the Anglo-Saxon word, the biblical word for debt got
translated into 'sin.'
"From the actual people who study
cuneiform records, 90% of which are economic, what we have
surviving from Sumer and Babylonia, from about 2500 BC to
the time of Jesus, are mainly marriage contracts, dowries,
legal contracts, economic contracts, and loan contracts.
Above all, loans....
The rulers had what we would call an economic model.
They realized that every economy tended to become unstable
as a result of compound interest. We have the training
tablets that they trained scribal students with, around
1800 or 1900 BC. They had to calculate: How long does it
take debt to double its size, at what we'd call 20%
interest? The answer is 5 years. How does long it take to
multiply four-fold? The answer is 10 years. How much to
multiply 64 times? The answer is 30 years. Well you can
imagine how fast the debts grew.
So they knew how the tendency of every society was that
people would run up debts. Now when they ran up debts in
Sumer and Babylonia, and even in in Judea in Jesus' time,
they didn't borrow money from money lenders. People owed
debts because they were in arrears: They couldn't pay the
fees owed to the palace. We might call them taxes, but
they actually were fees for public services. And for beer,
for instance. The palace would supply beer and you would
run up a tab over the year, to be paid at harvest time on
the threshing floor. You also would pay for the boatmen,
if you needed to get your harvest delivered by boat. You
would pay for draught cattle if you needed them. You'd pay
for water. Cornelia Wunsch did one study and found that
75% of the debts, even in neo-Babylonian times around the
5th or 4th century BC, were arrears.
Sometimes the harvest failed. And when the harvest
failed, obviously they couldn't pay their fees and other
debts. Hammurabi canceled debts four or five times during
his reign. He did this because either the harvest failed
or there was a war and people couldn't pay.
What do you do if you're a ruler and people can't pay?
One reason they would cancel debts is that most debts were
owed to the palace or to the temples, which were under the
control of the palace. So you're canceling debts that are
owed to yourself.
Rulers had a good reason for doing this. If they didn't
cancel the debts, then people who owed money would become
bondservants to the tax collector or the wealthy
creditors, or whoever they owed money to. If they were
bondservants, they couldn't serve in the army. They
couldn't provide the corvée labor duties – the kind of tax
that people had to pay in the form of labor. Or they would
defect. If you wanted to win a war you had to have a
citizenry that had its own land, its own means of
support."
http://michael-hudson.com/2017/01/the-land-belongs-to-god/
"The focus of my talk today will be Jesus' first sermon
and the long background behind it that helps explain what
he was talking about and what he sought to bring about."
Glad you are researching the ancient history of monetary
regimes. Especially since your research into monetary
history over the past 150 years is so incredibly wrong.
Why No One Is Taking Robert Samuelson's Medicaid Deal Seriously
Robert Samuelson put forward what would ordinarily be a very reasonable proposal on
Medicaid and Medicare in his column * today. He suggested that the federal government take
over the portion of Medicaid that deals with low-income elderly and fold it into the
Medicare program, while leaving states with full responsibility for dealing with the part
of Medicaid that deals with low-income families below retirement age.
While he is right that this sort of consolidation could likely reduce costs and prevent
seniors from falling between the cracks in the two systems, there is a basic problem with
turning Medicaid over to the states. There are a number of states controlled by Republicans
where there is little or no interest in providing health care for low income families.
This means that if Medicaid were turned completely over to the states, millions of low
income families would lose access to health care. For this reason, people who want to see
low income families get health care, which is the purpose of Medicaid, want to see the
program remain partly under the federal government's control.
"There are a number of states
controlled by Republicans where there is little or no interest in providing health care for
low income families. This means that if Medicaid were turned completely over to the states,
millions of low income families would lose access to health care."
Dean Baker is right to
go after this idea from Robert (no relationship to Paul) Samuelson but two additional
comments.
(1) This is really the Paul Ryan agenda.
(2) For states like mine that will take care of these low income families, this Ryan
agenda does not mean less in taxes. It means less in income taxes on the rich and more in
sales taxes for the rest of us. The ultimate Paul Ryan agenda.
There are 2 theories about
how to argue with a republican. Neither one works.
What they care about is "lessez faire", which means low income families should die off
from lack of healthcare. If they deserved healthcare, they should have been able to afford
it themselves.
"... And all costs are labor costs. It it isn't labor cost, it's rents and economic profit which mean economic inefficiency. An inefficient economy is unstable. Likely to crash or drive revolution. ..."
"... Free lunch economics seeks to make labor unnecessary or irrelevant. Labor cost is pure liability. ..."
"... Yet all the cash for consumption is labor cost, so if labor cost is a liability, then demand is a liability. ..."
"... Replace workers with robots, then robots must become consumers. ..."
"... "Replace workers with robots, then robots must become consumers." Well no - the OWNERS of robots must become consumers. ..."
"... I am old enough to remember the days of good public libraries, free university education, free bus passes for seniors and low land prices. Is the income side of the equation all that counts? ..."
Robots and Inequality: A Skeptic's Take : Paul Krugman presents "
Robot Geometry " based on
Ryan Avent 's "Productivity Paradox". It's more-or-less the skill-biased technological change
hypothesis, repackaged. Technology makes workers more productive, which reduces demand for workers,
as their effective supply increases. Workers still need to work, with a bad safety net, so they
end up moving to low-productivity sectors with lower wages. Meanwhile, the low wages in these
sectors makes it inefficient to invest in new technology.
My question: Are Reagan-Thatcher countries the only ones with robots? My image, perhaps it is
wrong, is that plenty of robots operate in
Japan and
Germany too, and both
countries are roughly just as technologically advanced as the US. But Japan and Germany haven't
seen the same increase in inequality as the US and other Anglo countries after 1980 (graphs below).
What can explain the dramatic differences in inequality across countries? Fairly blunt changes
in labor market institutions, that's what. This goes back to Peter Temin's "
Treaty of
Detroit " paper and the oddly ignored series of papers by
Piketty, Saez and coauthors which argues that changes in top marginal tax rates can largely
explain the evolution of the Top 1% share of income across countries. (Actually, it goes back
further -- people who work in Public Economics had "always" known that pre-tax income is sensitive
to tax rates...) They also show that the story of inequality is really a story of incomes at the
very top -- changes in other parts of the income distribution are far less dramatic. This evidence
also is not suggestive of a story in which inequality is about the returns to skills, or computer
usage, or the rise of trade with China. ...
Yet another economist bamboozled by free lunch economics.
In free lunch economics, you never consider demand impacted by labor cost changed.
TANSTAAFL so, cut labor costs and consumption must be cut.
Funny things can be done if money is printed and helicopter dropped unequally.
Printed money can accumulate in the hands of the rentier cutting labor costs and pocketing
the savings without cutting prices.
Free lunch economics invented the idea price equals cost, but that is grossly distorting.
And all costs are labor costs. It it isn't labor cost, it's rents and economic profit which
mean economic inefficiency. An inefficient economy is unstable. Likely to crash or drive revolution.
Free lunch economics seeks to make labor unnecessary or irrelevant. Labor cost is pure
liability.
Yet all the cash for consumption is labor cost, so if labor cost is a liability, then demand
is a liability.
Replace workers with robots, then robots must become consumers.
I am old enough to remember the days of good public libraries, free university education,
free bus passes for seniors and low land prices. Is the income side of the equation all that counts?
People are worried about robots taking jobs. Driverless cars are around the corner. Restaurants
and shops increasingly carry the option to order by touchscreen. Google's clever algorithms provide
instant translations that are remarkably good.
But the economy does not feel like one undergoing a technology-driven productivity boom. In
the late 1990s, tech optimism was everywhere. At the same time, wages and productivity were rocketing
upward. The situation now is completely different. The most recent jobs reports in America and
Britain tell the tale. Employment is growing, month after month after month. But wage growth is
abysmal. So is productivity growth: not surprising in economies where there are lots of people
on the job working for low pay.
The obvious conclusion, the one lots of people are drawing, is that the robot threat is totally
overblown: the fantasy, perhaps, of a bubble-mad Silicon Valley - or an effort to distract from
workers' real problems, trade and excessive corporate power. Generally speaking, the problem is
not that we've got too much amazing new technology but too little.
This is not a strawman of my own invention. Robert Gordon makes this case. You can see Matt
Yglesias make it here. * Duncan Weldon, for his part, writes: **
"We are debating a problem we don't have, rather than facing a real crisis that is the polar
opposite. Productivity growth has slowed to a crawl over the last 15 or so years, business investment
has fallen and wage growth has been weak. If the robot revolution truly was under way, we would
see surging capital expenditure and soaring productivity. Right now, that would be a nice 'problem'
to have. Instead we have the reality of weak growth and stagnant pay. The real and pressing concern
when it comes to the jobs market and automation is that the robots aren't taking our jobs fast
enough."
And in a recent blog post Paul Krugman concluded: *
"I'd note, however, that it remains peculiar how we're simultaneously worrying that robots
will take all our jobs and bemoaning the stalling out of productivity growth. What is the story,
really?"
What is the story, indeed. Let me see if I can tell one. Last fall I published a book: "The
Wealth of Humans". In it I set out how rapid technological progress can coincide with lousy growth
in pay and productivity. Start with this:
"Low labour costs discourage investments in labour-saving technology, potentially reducing
productivity growth."
This is an old concern in economics; it's "capital-biased technological change," which tends to
shift the distribution of income away from workers to the owners of capital....
Catherine Rampell and Nick Wingfield write about the growing evidence * for "reshoring" of
manufacturing to the United States. * They cite several reasons: rising wages in Asia; lower energy
costs here; higher transportation costs. In a followup piece, ** however, Rampell cites another
factor: robots.
"The most valuable part of each computer, a motherboard loaded with microprocessors and memory,
is already largely made with robots, according to my colleague Quentin Hardy. People do things
like fitting in batteries and snapping on screens.
"As more robots are built, largely by other robots, 'assembly can be done here as well as anywhere
else,' said Rob Enderle, an analyst based in San Jose, California, who has been following the
computer electronics industry for a quarter-century. 'That will replace most of the workers, though
you will need a few people to manage the robots.' "
Robots mean that labor costs don't matter much, so you might as well locate in advanced countries
with large markets and good infrastructure (which may soon not include us, but that's another
issue). On the other hand, it's not good news for workers!
This is an old concern in economics; it's "capital-biased technological change," which tends
to shift the distribution of income away from workers to the owners of capital.
Twenty years ago, when I was writing about globalization and inequality, capital bias didn't
look like a big issue; the major changes in income distribution had been among workers (when you
include hedge fund managers and CEOs among the workers), rather than between labor and capital.
So the academic literature focused almost exclusively on "skill bias", supposedly explaining the
rising college premium.
But the college premium hasn't risen for a while. What has happened, on the other hand, is
a notable shift in income away from labor:
[Graph]
If this is the wave of the future, it makes nonsense of just about all the conventional wisdom
on reducing inequality. Better education won't do much to reduce inequality if the big rewards
simply go to those with the most assets. Creating an "opportunity society," or whatever it is
the likes of Paul Ryan etc. are selling this week, won't do much if the most important asset you
can have in life is, well, lots of assets inherited from your parents. And so on.
I think our eyes have been averted from the capital/labor dimension of inequality, for several
reasons. It didn't seem crucial back in the 1990s, and not enough people (me included!) have looked
up to notice that things have changed. It has echoes of old-fashioned Marxism - which shouldn't
be a reason to ignore facts, but too often is. And it has really uncomfortable implications.
But I think we'd better start paying attention to those implications.
"The most valuable part of each computer, a motherboard loaded with microprocessors and memory,
is already largely made with robots, according to my colleague Quentin Hardy. People do things
like fitting in batteries and snapping on screens.
"...already largely made..."? already? circuit boards were almost entirely populated by machines
by 1985, and after the rise of surface mount technology you could drop the "almost". in 1990 a
single machine could place 40k+/hour parts small enough they were hard to pick up with fingers.
And now for something completely different. Ryan Avent has a nice summary * of the argument
in his recent book, trying to explain how dramatic technological change can go along with stagnant
real wages and slowish productivity growth. As I understand it, he's arguing that the big tech
changes are happening in a limited sector of the economy, and are driving workers into lower-wage
and lower-productivity occupations.
But I have to admit that I was having a bit of a hard time wrapping my mind around exactly
what he's saying, or how to picture this in terms of standard economic frameworks. So I found
myself wanting to see how much of his story could be captured in a small general equilibrium model
- basically the kind of model I learned many years ago when studying the old trade theory.
Actually, my sense is that this kind of analysis is a bit of a lost art. There was a time when
most of trade theory revolved around diagrams illustrating two-country, two-good, two-factor models;
these days, not so much. And it's true that little models can be misleading, and geometric reasoning
can suck you in way too much. It's also true, however, that this style of modeling can help a
lot in thinking through how the pieces of an economy fit together, in ways that algebra or verbal
storytelling can't.
So, an exercise in either clarification or nostalgia - not sure which - using a framework that
is basically the Lerner diagram, ** adapted to a different issue.
Imagine an economy that produces only one good, but can do so using two techniques, A and B,
one capital-intensive, one labor-intensive. I represent these techniques in Figure 1 by showing
their unit input coefficients:
[Figure 1]
Here AB is the economy's unit isoquant, the various combinations of K and L it can use to produce
one unit of output. E is the economy's factor endowment; as long as the aggregate ratio of K to
L is between the factor intensities of the two techniques, both will be used. In that case, the
wage-rental ratio will be the slope of the line AB.
Wait, there's more. Since any point on the line passing through A and B has the same value,
the place where it hits the horizontal axis is the amount of labor it takes to buy one unit of
output, the inverse of the real wage rate. And total output is the ratio of the distance along
the ray to E divided by the distance to AB, so that distance is 1/GDP.
You can also derive the allocation of resources between A and B; not to clutter up the diagram
even further, I show this in Figure 2, which uses the K/L ratios of the two techniques and the
overall endowment E:
[Figure 2]
Now, Avent's story. I think it can be represented as technical progress in A, perhaps also
making A even more capital-intensive. So this would amount to a movement southwest to a point
like A' in Figure 3:
[Figure 3]
We can see right away that this will lead to a fall in the real wage, because 1/w must rise.
GDP and hence productivity does rise, but maybe not by much if the economy was mostly using the
labor-intensive technique.
And what about allocation of labor between sectors? We can see this in Figure 4, where capital-using
technical progress in A actually leads to a higher share of the work force being employed in labor-intensive
B:
[Figure 4]
So yes, it is possible for a simple general equilibrium analysis to capture a lot of what Avent
is saying. That does not, of course, mean that he's empirically right. And there are other things
in his argument, such as hypothesized effects on the direction of innovation, that aren't in here.
But I, at least, find this way of looking at it somewhat clarifying - which, to be honest,
may say more about my weirdness and intellectual age than it does about the subject.
I think this illustrates my point very clearly. If you had charts of wealth by age it would be
even clearer. Without a knowledge of the discounted expected value of public pensions it is hard
to draw any conclusions from this list.
I know very definitely that in Australia and the UK people are very reliant on superannuation
and housing assets. In both Australia and the UK it is common to sell expensive housing in the
capital and move to cheaper coastal locations upon retirement, investing the capital to provide
retirement income. Hence a larger median wealth is NEEDED.
It is hard otherwise to explain the much higher median wealth in Australia and the UK.
Ryan Avent's analysis demonstrates what is wrong with the libertarian, right wing belief that
cheap labor is the answer to every problem when in truth cheap labor is the source of many of
our problems.
Spencer,
as I have said before, I don't really care to much what wages are - I care about income. It is
low income that is the problem. I'm a UBI guy, if money is spread around, and workers can say
no to exploitation, low wages will not be a problem.
Have we not seen a massive shift in pretax income distribution? Yes ... which tells me that
changes in tax rate structures are not the only culprit. Though they are an important culprit.
Maybe - but
1. changes in taxes can affect incentives (especially think of real investment and corporate taxes
and also personal income taxes and executive remuneration);
2. changes in the distribution of purchasing power can effect the way growth in the economy occurs;
3. changes in taxes also affect government spending and government spending tends to be more progressively
distributed than private income.
Composite Services labor hours increase with poor productivity growth - output per hour of
labor input. Composite measure of service industry output is notoriously problematic (per BLS
BEA).
Goods labor hours decrease with increasing productivity growth. Goods output per hour easy
to measure and with the greatest experience and knowledge.
Put this together and composite national productivity growth rate can't grow as fast as services
consume more of labor hours.
Simple arithmetic.
Elaboration on Services productivity measures:
How do you measure a retail clerks unit output?
How do you measure an engineer's unit output?
How do equilibrate retail clerk output with engineer's outuput for a composite output?
Now add the composite retail clerk labor hours to engineering labor hours... which dominates in
composite labor hours? Duh! So even in services the productivity is weighted heavily to the lowest
productivity job market.
Substitute Hospitality services for Retail Clerk services. Substitute truck drivers services
for Hospitality Services, etc., etc., etc.
I have spent years tracking productivity in goods production of various types ... mining, non-tech
hardware production, high tech hardware production in various sectors of high tech. The present
rates of productivity growth continue to climb (never decline) relative to the past rates in each
goods production sector measured by themselves.
But the proportion of hours in goods production in U.S. is and has been in continual decline
even while value of output has increased in each sector of goods production.
Here's an interesting way to start thinking about Services productivity.
There used to be reasonably large services sector in leisure and business travel agents. Now
there is nearly none... this has been replaced by on-line computer based booking. So travel agent
or equivalent labor hours is now near zippo. Productivity of travel agents went through the roof
in the 1990's & 2000's as the number of people / labor hours dropped like a rock. Where did those
labor hours end up? They went to lower paying services or left the labor market entirely. So lower
paying lower productivity services increased as a proportion of all services, which in composite
reduced total serviced productivity.
You can do the same analysis for hundreds of service jobs that no longer even exist at all
--- switch board operators for example when the way of buggy whip makers and horse-shoe services).
Now take a little ride into the future... not to distant future. When autonomous vehicles become
the norm or even a large proportion of vehicles, and commercial drivers (taxi's, trucking, delivery
services) go the way of horse-shoe services the labor hours for those services (land transportation
of goods & people) will drop precipitously, even as unit deliveries increase, productivity goes
through the roof, but since there's almost no labor hours in that service the composite effect
on productivity in services will drop because the displaced labor hours will end up in a lower
productivity services sector or out of the elabor market entirely.
Economists are having problems reconciling composite productivity growth rates with increasing
rates of automation. So they end up saying "no evidence" of automation taking jobs or something
to the effect "not to fear, robotics isn't evident as a problem we have to worry about".
But they know by observation all around them that automation is increasing productivity in
the goods sector, so they can't really discount automation as an issue without shutting their
eyes to everything they see with their "lying eyes". Thus they know deep down that they will have
to be reconcile this with BLS and BEA measures.
Ten years aog this wasn't even on economist's radars. Today it's at least being looked into
with more serious effort.
Ten years ago politicians weren't even aware of the possibility of any issues with increasing
rates of automation... they thought it's always increased with increasing labor demand and growth,
so why would that ever change? Ten years ago they concluded it couldn't without even thinking
about it for a moment. Today it's on their radar at least as something that bears perhaps a little
more thought.
Not to worry though... in ten more years they'll either have real reason to worry staring them
in the face, or they'll have figured out why they were so blind before.
Reminds me of not recognizing the "shadow banking" enterprises that they didn't see either
until after the fact.
Or that they thought the risk rating agencies were providing independent and valid risk analysis
so the economists couldn't reconcile the "low level" of market risks risk with everything else
so they just assumed "everything" else was really ok too... must be "irrational exuberance" that's
to blame.
Let me add that the term "robotics" is a subset of automation. The major distinction is only that
a form of automation that includes some type of 'articulation' and/or some type of dynamic decision
making on the fly (computational branching decision making in nano second speeds) is termed 'robotics'
because articulation and dynamic decision making are associated with human capabilities rather
then automatic machines.
It makes no difference whether productivity gains occur by an articulated machine or one that
isn't... automation just means replacing people's labor with something that improves humans capacity
to produce an output.
When mechanical leverage was invented 3000 or more years ago it was a form of automation, enabling
humans to lift, move heavier objects with less human effort (less human energy).
"... Past administrations of both parties have been vigorous supporters of longer and stronger patent and copyright protections. These protections can raise the price of protected items by factors of ten or even a hundred, making them equivalent to tariffs of 1000 and 10,000 percent. These protections lead to the same sorts of economic distortion and corruption that economists would predict from tariffs of this size. ..."
"... Trump administration officials at a Group of 20 summit rejected concerns about spreading protectionism and made clear that the new administration would seek different approaches to global commerce. ..."
"... The United States influence over the Group of 20 nations, even when the US is supposedly taking generally unpopular stances is striking and makes me wonder why there is no open dissent. What is supposed to be unpopular may be less so among G20 governments than commonly assumed. ..."
The United States Has Been for Selective Protectionism, Not Free Trade
The New York Times might have wrongly lead readers to believe that presidents prior to Donald
Trump supported free trade in an article * noting his refusal to go along with a G-20 statement proclaiming
the importance of free trade. This is not true.
Past administrations of both parties have been vigorous supporters of longer and stronger patent
and copyright protections. These protections can raise the price of protected items by factors of
ten or even a hundred, making them equivalent to tariffs of 1000 and 10,000 percent. These protections
lead to the same sorts of economic distortion and corruption that economists would predict from tariffs
of this size.
Past administrations have also supported barriers that protect our most highly paid professionals,
such as doctors and dentists, from foreign competition. They apparently believed that these professionals
lack the skills necessary to compete in the global economy and therefore must be protected from the
international competition. The result is that the rest of us pay close to $100 billion more each
year for our medical bills ($700 per family).
U.S. Breaks With Allies Over Trade Issues Amid Trump's 'America First' Vows
By JACK EWING
Trump administration officials at a Group of 20 summit rejected concerns about spreading
protectionism and made clear that the new administration would seek different approaches to
global commerce.
Financial officials from the world's biggest economies have dropped from a joint statement
any mention of financing action on climate change, reportedly following pressure from the US
and Saudi Arabia....
The United States influence over
the Group of 20 nations, even when the US is supposedly taking generally unpopular stances
is striking and makes me wonder why there is no open dissent. What is supposed to be unpopular
may be less so among G20 governments than commonly assumed.
It has long been a mystery to
me why European nations adopt policies that hurt their economies just to pander to the whims
of US geopolitics. Cases in point: sanctions on Iran and Russia and support for Israel.
ProMarket: "Q: In your opinion, what are the main reasons for the rise in concentration?
There is no single over-riding cause, but rather several factors that have contributed to the
reduction in competition. I would divide the list into factors that are "natural," "strategic,"
and "policy."
Natural factors include such fundamental economic forces as network sectors which do not favor
fragmented industries and have taken on greater importance in the economy. Strategic forces are
efforts by incumbents to insulate themselves against entry by creating barriers (controlling distribution
systems, patents, etc.) and by using the regulatory process to handicap entrants (Tesla, Uber,
the professions, etc.). Policy factors include the shift in antitrust enforcement away from challenges
to "rising-concentration" mergers, the considerable deference being paid to dominant firms (Google,
Amazon), weaknesses of remedy policy, and the inability to prevent the development of many strategic
barriers."
In other words - the strategy has been to limit competition because the policy makers have
been asleep at the wheel.
For a very long time. I consider "There Is Convincing Evidence That Concentration Has Been Rising"
to be the understatement of the year and in the running for understatement of the century. I first
noticed an excessive rate of M&A while still in high school in the mid-sixties. This is not even
a case of better late than never. This is closing the barn door after we get a letter from the
horse vacationing half way around the world.
You are far too generous. Policy makers have not been asleep, they have deliberately shut their
eyes and turned away under Republicans for almost 40 years and, sadly, the Obama administration
was not much better.
If we could lift the sheets, we might find an underlying policy of *promoting* concentration,
to be even less generous.
In any event, it appears the scholar in the article is ignorant of supplier markets or chooses
to not mention them. But buyer power seems to be the best route to excess margins in a low ROI
world.
"Autor and co-authors have developed and tested a "superstar" model in which markets are increasingly
dominated by heterogeneous firms and a winner-take-all competitive process that favors those using
lower labor."
Maybe, just maybe, winner-take-all economics (e.g. capitalism) is *the* problem.
==The life of a single human being is worth a million times more than all the property of the
richest man on earth.==
"the policy makers have been asleep at the wheel."
And PGL was for Hillary who only made the most minimal noises about market concentration and
anti-trust. No doubt she'd continue Obama's policy of being "asleep at the wheel."
No doubt that's what their campaign contributors wanted. And then PGL can write blog posts
complaining about it while he attacked Bernie Bros during the primary.
"... "There's been a real evolution," Philippe Renault-Guillemet, the retired head of a small manufacturing company, said as he handed out National Front leaflets in the market on a recent day. "A few years ago, they would insult us. It's changed ..."
"... With a month to go, the signs are mixed. Many voters, particularly affluent ones, at markets here and farther up the coast betray a traditional distaste for the far-right party. Yet others once repelled by a party with a heritage rooted in France's darkest political traditions - anti-Semitism, xenophobia and a penchant for the fist - are considering it. ..."
"... French politics are particularly volatile this election season. Traditional power centers - the governing Socialists and the center-right Republicans - are in turmoil. Ms. Le Pen's chief rival, Emmanuel Macron, is a youthful and untested politician running at the head of a new party. ..."
"... Those uncertainties - and a nagging sense that mainstream parties have failed to offer solutions to France's economic anemia - have left the National Front better positioned than at any time in its 45-year history. ..."
"... Frédéric Boccaletti, the party's leader in the Var, knows exactly what needs to be done. Last week, he and his fellow National Front activists gathered for an evening planning session in La Seyne-Sur-Mer, a working-class port town devastated by the closing of centuries-old naval shipyards nearly 20 years ago. Mr. Boccaletti, who is running for Parliament, keeps his headquarters here. ..."
"... It is not unlike the strategy that President Trump applied in the United States by campaigning in blue-collar, Democratic strongholds in rust-belt Ohio. No one thought he stood a chance there. Yet he won. ..."
"... "Now, we've got doctors, lawyers, the liberal professions with us," Mr. Boccaletti said. "Since the election of Marine" to the party's presidency in 2011, "it's all changed. ..."
"... The backlash against neoliberal globalization creates very strange alliances indeed. That was already visible during the last Presidential elections. When a considerable part of lower middle class professionals (including women) voted against Hillary. ..."
"... As Fred noted today (Why did so many white women vote for Donald Trump http://for.tn/2f51y7s ) there were many Trump supporters among white women with the college degree, for which Democrats identity politics prescribed voting for Hillary. ..."
"... I think this tendency might only became stronger in the next elections: neoliberal globalization is now viewed as something detrimental to the country future and current economic prosperity by many, usually not allied, segments of population. ..."
As French Election Nears, Le Pen Targets Voters Her Party Once Repelled
By ADAM NOSSITER
MARCH 19, 2017
SANARY-SUR-MER, France - The National Front's leafleteers are no longer spat upon. Its local
candidate's headquarters sit defiantly in a fraying Muslim neighborhood. And last week, Marine
Le Pen, the party's leader, packed thousands into a steamy meeting hall nearby for a pugnacious
speech mocking "the system" and vowing victory in this spring's French presidential election.
"There's been a real evolution," Philippe Renault-Guillemet, the retired head of a small
manufacturing company, said as he handed out National Front leaflets in the market on a recent
day. "A few years ago, they would insult us. It's changed."
It has long been accepted wisdom that Ms. Le Pen and her far-right party can make it through
the first round of the presidential voting on April 23, when she and four other candidates will
be on the ballot, but that she will never capture the majority needed to win in a runoff in May.
But a visit to this southeastern National Front stronghold suggests that Ms. Le Pen may be
succeeding in broadening her appeal to the point where a victory is more plausible, even if the
odds are still stacked against her.
With a month to go, the signs are mixed. Many voters, particularly affluent ones, at markets
here and farther up the coast betray a traditional distaste for the far-right party. Yet others
once repelled by a party with a heritage rooted in France's darkest political traditions - anti-Semitism,
xenophobia and a penchant for the fist - are considering it.
"I've said several times I would do it, but I've never had the courage," Christian Pignol,
a vendor of plants and vegetables at the Bandol market, said about voting for the National Front.
"This time may be the good one."
"It's the fear of the unknown," he continued, as several fellow vendors nodded. "People would
like to try it, but they are afraid. But maybe it's the solution. We've tried everything for 30,
40 years. We'd like to try it, but we're also afraid."
French politics are particularly volatile this election season. Traditional power centers
- the governing Socialists and the center-right Republicans - are in turmoil. Ms. Le Pen's chief
rival, Emmanuel Macron, is a youthful and untested politician running at the head of a new party.
Those uncertainties - and a nagging sense that mainstream parties have failed to offer
solutions to France's economic anemia - have left the National Front better positioned than at
any time in its 45-year history.
But if it is to win nationally, the party must do much better than even the 49 percent support
it won in this conservative Var department, home to three National Front mayors, in elections
in 2015. More critically, it must turn once-hostile areas of the country in Ms. Le Pen's favor
and attract new kinds of voters - professionals and the upper and middle classes. Political analysts
are skeptical.
Frédéric Boccaletti, the party's leader in the Var, knows exactly what needs to be done.
Last week, he and his fellow National Front activists gathered for an evening planning session
in La Seyne-Sur-Mer, a working-class port town devastated by the closing of centuries-old naval
shipyards nearly 20 years ago. Mr. Boccaletti, who is running for Parliament, keeps his headquarters
here.
"I'm telling you, you've got to go to the difficult neighborhoods - it's not what you think,"
Mr. Boccaletti told them, laughing slyly. "Our work has got to be in the areas that have resisted
us most" - meaning the coast's more affluent areas.
It is not unlike the strategy that President Trump applied in the United States by campaigning
in blue-collar, Democratic strongholds in rust-belt Ohio. No one thought he stood a chance there.
Yet he won.
"Now, we've got doctors, lawyers, the liberal professions with us," Mr. Boccaletti said.
"Since the election of Marine" to the party's presidency in 2011, "it's all changed."
The backlash against neoliberal globalization creates very strange alliances indeed. That
was already visible during the last Presidential elections. When a considerable part of lower
middle class professionals (including women) voted against Hillary.
As Fred noted today (Why did so many white women vote for Donald Trump
http://for.tn/2f51y7s ) there were many Trump
supporters among white women with the college degree, for which Democrats identity politics prescribed
voting for Hillary.
I think this tendency might only became stronger in the next elections: neoliberal globalization
is now viewed as something detrimental to the country future and current economic prosperity by
many, usually not allied, segments of population.
Does Immigration Help The Economy? Trump Administration To
Reopen H-1B Visa Program
By Lydia O'Neal @LydsONeal On 03/15/17 AT 4:30 PM
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS)
announced Wednesday that it would not draw down the number of
H-1B visas doled out to foreign workers for fiscal year 2018,
leaving the total cap at 85,000, and would begin accepting
applications April 3.
The decision came less than two weeks after USCIS alarmed
proponents of freer immigration for skilled workers when it
suspended the premium processing route for H-1B visas, which
allows companies to import workers quickly with just 15
waiting days and a $1,225 fee, for a period of at least six
months.
The agency attributed the decision to its need to "process
long-pending petitions, which we have currently been unable
to process due to the high volume of incoming petitions and
the significant surge in premium processing requests over the
past few years," according to a USCIS press release. USCIS
also kept its expedited processing route, which is reserved
for emergency situations, in place.
H-1B visas are reserved for foreign nationals with a clear
relationship with the American company seeking to hire them,
as well as a bachelor's degree or higher in a "specialty
occupation," defined by USCIS as "in fields such as
engineering, math and business, as well as many technology
fields."
H-1B Visa Petitions Approved in 2014 by Level of Education
Showing petitions approved in the 2014 fiscal year by
level of education. Approved petitions exceed the number of
individual H-1B workers sponsored because multiple types of
petitions can be filed for a single worker. The U.S. caps the
number of H-1B workers that can be given a visa at 65,000 per
fiscal year.
The tech industry often cites the program, which primarily
benefits Indian workers and companies, as a necessary tool to
compensate for labor shortages, but the existence of that
shortage has long been disputed.
A recent study found that, had the program not been in
place between 1994 and 2001, tech workers' salaries would've
been up to 5 percent higher, while their employment would've
grown by up to 11 percent. The paper, by researchers at the
University of Michigan and the University of California, San
Diego, also pointed out that productivity in the sector rose
by as much as 2.5 percent, while consumer prices fell,
ultimately benefitting information technology firms.
Saudi Arabia is the target of many 10's of billions in future
arms sales. US needs to keep them burning jet fuel and
jettisoning bombs so they buy planes, and other big ticket
stuff from US.
Trump must be listening to the pentagon guys
saying we could have won in Vietnam if we had more time and
bombs...........
Yes, the blog understands that YOU and Glenn Greenwald believe the British,
Americans, and Saudi's are brutal terrorizing thugs that shoot people for
absolutely no reason whatsoever even if those people are shooting at, killing,
and terrorizing us or our Allies living peacefully outside Yemen.
The Yemeni's have every right according to you and Glen Greenwald to
shoot, kill, and terrorize their neighbors and the British, Americans and
Saudi's have absolutely no right to protect themselves or their Allies.
It is not AK47s vs F16s as you portray the battle, it is al Qaeda and Daesh
Terrorists plus friendly Warlords vs the Modern Western World and you know
it.
Yemen at 'point of no return' as conflict leaves almost 7 million close
to famine
Governments have been warned they face enduring shame should famine take
hold in Yemen, where two-thirds of the population face severe food shortages
By Les Roopanarine, Patrick Wintour, Saeed Kamali Dehghan, and Ahmad Algohbary
- Guardian
Ibb
Aid agencies have warned that Yemen is "at the point of no return" after
new figures released by the UN indicated 17 million people are facing severe
food insecurity and will fall prey to famine without urgent humanitarian
assistance.
A total of 6.8 million people are deemed to be in a state of emergency
– one step from famine on the five-point integrated food security phase
classification (IPC), the standard international measure – with a further
10.2 million in crisis. The numbers reflect a 21% increase in hunger levels
in the Arab world's poorest state since June 2016.
Taiz and Hodeidah governorates, home to almost 25% of Yemen's 28 million-strong
population and the scene of intense conflict since the outbreak of civil
war in 2015, are at particularly heightened risk of famine.
"The numbers affected are absolutely extraordinary," said Mark Kaye,
Save the Children's Yemen spokesperson.
"We keep on talking about a country that's on the brink of famine, but
for me these numbers highlight that we're at the point of no return. If
things are not done now we are going to be looking back on this and millions
of children will have starved to death, and we'll all have been aware of
this for some time. That will shame us as an international community for
years to come.
"The problem is that you see the numbers but you don't see the people
behind it," he said. "I'm always concerned when we're waiting for a tick-box
to happen before we say, 'This is famine.'
Emphasising the role of conflict in the escalation of the crisis, Kaye
said funding for Yemen – subject of a Disasters Emergency Committee appeal
that has raised more than £20m as well as a call for $2.1bn (£1.6bn) by
the UN – was only part of the solution.
"This crisis is happening because food and supplies can't get into the
country. Yemen was completely dependent on imports of food, medicine and
fuel prior to this crisis. You have one party delaying and significantly
preventing food from getting into the country, and another on the ground
who are detaining aid workers or preventing aid and food from getting to
areas they don't want it to go to.
"As much as funding – and obviously we do need money to do all the work
that needs to be done in Yemen – the political track is the one that really
needs working on. There needs to be a significant game change from the UK
government, the US government, who have influence over the Saudi-led coalition
and can say, 'You need to open up the ports, you need to ensure that enough
food and aid is getting in.'
"Also, those on the ground – the Houthis, for example – need to ensure
that aid can get to hard-to-reach areas, because you can throw money at
this all day but ultimately it's about people being able to access what
we are trying to provide."
Saudi sources said Houthi rebel fighters were using the Yemeni port of
Hodeidah to import munitions and other goods for its war effort, and for
raising cash through extortion from traders. They also claimed Houthis have
destroyed key infrastructure at the port, worsening the food shortages.
"They are using the port as a military base to import guns, and rockets,"
one Saudi source said.
Aid groups and senior UN figures have repeatedly urged the Gulf States
to acknowledge that any attack on the port would have devastating consequences
for Yemen's food crisis. Before the conflict began, 80% of imports to Yemen
came through the port, and 90% of food was imported....
Gross Domestic Product per capita based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP)
* for Saudi Arabia and Yemen, 2007-2016
* Data are expressed in US dollars adjusted for purchasing power parities
(PPPs), which provide a means of comparing spending between countries on
a common base. PPPs are the rates of currency conversion that equalise the
cost of a given "basket" of goods and services in different countries.
Gross Domestic Product per capita based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP)
* for Saudi Arabia and Yemen, 2007-2016
2016
Yemen / Saudi Arabia
2,521 / 54,078
* Data are expressed in US dollars adjusted for purchasing power parities
(PPPs), which provide a means of comparing spending between countries on
a common base. PPPs are the rates of currency conversion that equalise the
cost of a given "basket" of goods and services in different countries.
Gross Domestic Product per capita based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP)
for Saudi Arabia and Yemen, 2007-2016
2016
Yemen / Saudi Arabia
2,521 / 54,078
[ Imagine Saudi Arabia, the United States and United Kingdom tearing
through the fabric of life of a desperately poor country with which we are
not even at war. ]
Saudi Arabia is the target of many 10's of billions in future arms sales.
US needs to keep them burning jet fuel and jettisoning bombs so they buy
planes, and other big ticket stuff from US.
Trump must be listening to the pentagon guys saying we could have won
in Vietnam if we had more time and bombs...........
He spent the primary railing against Bernie Sanders, who polled much better against Trump than
Hillary and who had much better policy proposals than Hillary. Now he complains about what he
himself promoted.
So now the Republicans and Democrats can go back to playing Good Cop/Bad Cop - just like the
last 30 or so years. And Krugman can go back to pretending to fight the right wing while at the
same time guarding against any success of the left wing.
Neoliberal Democrats seem impervious about killing jobs (or driving down wages) with "free" trade
agreements. But now you want us to bleed for the health-insurance industry.
Why should the average American family pay $10,000/year (your 5% of GDP) to support a completely
useless industry (health-care insurance)? And you wonder why Hillary lost the election.
If you're concerned about jobs, there are plenty more useful things to do, like renewable energy,
energy-conservation, refurbishing the electrical grid to support renewable energy, not to mention
traditional infrastructure; then there's water conservation, scientific research etc.
You can advocate all you want. There is going to be another four years of Republican majorities
in the house and they are not going to go for Medicare For All. There are plenty of issues where
the majority of people want things:
1. Taxing the rich
2. Not increasing the military budget
3. Keeping abortion legal
4. Medicare for all
Failing to advocate for MFA just blatantly demonstrates, to the Average American, that the Democratic
Party is beholden to Wall Street (and keep people away from the voting-booth.
Until Pk (and the Democratic party-establishment) understands this simple truth, they will
keep flounder in the desert. And the more "Bernie-bashing" they do (especially quoting MFA), the
more they will alienate the average American.
"This is a guy who has a prestigious academic record and a huge international reader base. He
could do or go pretty much anywhere he wants."
You're absolutely correct, Paul, and many other "prominent" people (some I know personally)
that I used to respect, went "all in" on Hillary Clinton (and what she represents, i.e. neoliberal
wisdom).
All of them are very well off, and seem to be isolated from us "workin' stiffs". They seem
to all get their information from the corporate media.
Only Paul can explain his decision to crusade against (in spite of earlier writings) Medicare-For-All
and anything else proposed by Bernie.
Krugman mocked Sanders for promoting the idea of medicare-for-all in the primary debates. This
was unadulterated partisan hippy bashing that contradicted his earlier columns.
He is paying attention. He is not blocking it out. Show us one article from Krugman where he said
single payer was bad policy. Just one. It does not exist.
Paul Krugman, Bernie Sanders, and Medicare for All
By DEAN BAKER
Paul Krugman weighs in * this morning on the debate between Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton
as to whether we should be trying to get universal Medicare or whether the best route forward
is to try to extend and improve the Affordable Care Act. Krugman comes down clearly on the side
of Hillary Clinton, arguing that it is implausible that we could get the sort of political force
necessary to implement a universal Medicare system.
Getting universal Medicare would require overcoming opposition not only from insurers and drug
companies, but doctors and hospital administrators, both of whom are paid at levels two to three
times higher than their counterparts in other wealthy countries. There would also be opposition
from a massive web of health-related industries, including everything from manufacturers of medical
equipment and diagnostic tools to pharmacy benefit managers who survive by intermediating between
insurers and drug companies.
Krugman is largely right, but I would make two major qualifications to his argument. The first
is that it is necessary to keep reminding the public that we are getting ripped off by the health
care industry in order to make any progress at all. The lobbyists for the industry are always
there. Money is at stake if they can get higher prices for their drugs, larger compensation packages
for doctors or hospitals, or weaker regulation on insurers.
The public doesn't have lobbyists to work the other side. The best we can hope is that groups
that have a general interest in lower health care costs, like AARP, labor unions, and various
consumer groups can put some pressure on politicians to counter the industry groups. In this context,
Bernie Sanders' push for universal Medicare can play an important role in energizing the public
and keeping the pressure on.
Those who think this sounds like stardust and fairy tales should read the column by Krugman's
fellow New York Times columnist, health economist Austin Frakt. Frakt reports ** on a new study
that finds evidence that public debate on drug prices and measures to constrain the industry had
the effect of slowing the growth of drug prices. In short getting out the pitchforks has a real
impact on the industry's behavior.
The implication is that we need people like Senator Sanders to constantly push the envelope.
Even if this may not get us to universal Medicare in one big leap, it will create a political
environment in which we can move forward rather than backward.
The other point has to do with an issue that Krugman raises in his blogpost *** on the topic.
He argues that part of the story of lower health care costs in Canada and other countries involves
saying "no," by which he means refusing to pay for various drugs and treatments that are considered
too expensive for the benefit they provide.
While there is some truth to this story, it is important to step back for a moment. In the
vast majority of cases, the drugs in question are not actually expensive to manufacture. The way
the drug industry justifies high prices is that they must recover their research costs. While
the industry does in fact spend a considerable amount of money on research (although they likely
exaggerate this figure), at the point the drug is being administered this is a sunk cost. In other
words, the resources devoted to this research have already been used; the economy doesn't somehow
get back the researchers' time and the capital expended if fewer people take a drug that is developed
from their work.
Ordinarily economists treat it as an absolute article of faith that we want all goods and services
to sell at their marginal cost without interference from the government, like a trade tariff or
quota. However in the case of prescription drugs, economists seem content to ignore the patent
monopolies granted to the industry, which allow it to charge prices that are often ten or even
a hundred times the free market price. (The hepatitis C drug Sovaldi has a list price in the United
States of $84,000. High quality generic versions are available in India for a few hundred dollars
per treatment.) In this case, we are effectively looking at a tariff that is not the 10-20 percent
that we might see in trade policy, but rather 1,000 percent or even 10,000 percent.
This sort of gap between price and marginal cost leads to exactly the sort of distortions that
economists predict when the government intervenes in a market with trade tariffs, except the distortions
are hugely larger with drugs. Companies have incentive to engage in massive marketing efforts,
they push their drugs for conditions for which they may not be appropriate, and they conceal evidence
suggesting their drugs may be less effective than advertised, or possibly even harmful. They also
lobby politicians for ever longer and stronger patent protection, and they use the legal system
to harass potential competitors, both generic and brand. Even research is distorted by this incentive
structure, with large portions of the industry's budget being devoted to developing copycat drugs
to gain a share of a competitor's patent rents.
Perhaps the worst part of this story is that the patent monopolies put us in a situation where
we might have to say no. The industry's monopoly allows it to say that it will not turn over a
life-saving drug for less than $100,000, $200,000, or whatever price tag it chooses. However,
if there was no patent monopoly, we would be looking at buying this drug at its cost of production.
That will rarely be more than $1,000 and generally much less. At those prices, it will rarely
make sense to say no. (The same issue arises with most medical equipment – once we have the technology,
producing a magnetic resonance imaging scanner is relatively cheap, as would be the cost of an
individual screening.)
We do have to pay for the research, but the way we are now doing it is incredibly backward.
It is like paying the firefighters when they show up at the burning house with our family inside.
Of course we would pay them millions to save our family (if we had the money), but it is nutty
to design a system that puts us in this situation.
We should be looking for a system that pays for the research upfront. There are various mechanisms
to accomplish this goal. (Here's **** my plan for a system of publicly funded clinical trials.)
Obviously overhauling our system for financing drug research is not something that is done overnight,
but it is an issue that needs attention. The current system is incredibly wasteful and it needlessly
puts in a situation where we have to say no in contexts where the costs to society of administering
treatment are actually very low.
This doesn't mean that we would pay for everything for everybody. There are some procedures
that actually are very expensive, for example surgeries requiring many hours of the time of highly
skilled surgeons. But we should be trying to design a system that minimizes these sorts of situations,
rather than making them an everyday occurrence.
My column * and Bernie Sanders' plan crossed in the mail. But the Sanders plan in a way reinforces
my point that calls for single-payer in America at this point are basically a distraction. Again,
I say this as someone who favors single-payer - but it's just not going to happen anytime soon.
Put it this way: for all the talk about being honest and upfront, even Sanders ended up delivering
mostly smoke and mirrors - or as Ezra Klein says, puppies and rainbows. ** Despite imposing large
middle-class taxes, his "gesture toward a future plan", as Ezra puts it, relies on the assumption
of huge cost savings. If you like, it involves a huge magic asterisk.
Now, it's true that single-payer systems in other advanced countries are much cheaper than
our health care system. And some of that could be replicated via lower administrative costs and
the generally lower prices Medicare pays. But to get costs down to, say, Canadian levels, we'd
need to do what they do: say no to patients, telling them that they can't always have the treatment
they want.
Saying no has two cost-saving effects: it saves money directly, and it also greatly enhances
the government's bargaining power, because it can say, for example, to drug producers that if
they charge too much they won't be in the formulary.
But it's not something most Americans want to hear about; foreign single-payer systems are
actually more like Medicaid than they are like Medicare.
And Sanders isn't coming clean on that - he's promising Medicaid-like costs while also promising
no rationing. The reason, of course, is that being realistic either about the costs or about what
the system would really be like would make it a political loser. But that's the point: single-payer
just isn't a political possibility starting from here. It's just a distraction from the real issues.
"... Sociologists spend their careers trying to understand how societies work. And some of the most pressing problems in big chunks of the United States may show up in economic data as low employment levels and stagnant wages but are also evident in elevated rates of depression, drug addiction and premature death. In other words, economics is only a piece of a broader, societal problem. So maybe the people who study just that could be worth listening to. ..."
"... "Once economists have the ears of people in Washington, they convince them that the only questions worth asking are the questions that economists are equipped to answer," said Michèle Lamont, a Harvard sociologist and president of the American Sociological Association. "That's not to take anything away from what they do. It's just that many of the answers they give are very partial." ..."
"... For starters, while economists tend to view a job as a straightforward exchange of labor for money, a wide body of sociological research shows how tied up work is with a sense of purpose and identity. ..."
"... "Wages are very important because of course they help people live and provide for their families," said Herbert Gans, an emeritus professor of sociology at Columbia. "But what social values can do is say that unemployment isn't just losing wages, it's losing dignity and self-respect and a feeling of usefulness and all the things that make human beings happy and able to function. ..."
"... That seems to be doubly true in the United States. For example, Ofer Sharone, a sociologist at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, studied unemployed white-collar workers and found that in the United States, his subjects viewed their ability to land a job as a personal reflection of their self-worth rather than a matter of arbitrary luck. They therefore took rejection hard, blaming themselves and in many cases giving up looking for work. In contrast, in Israel similar unemployed workers viewed getting a job as more like winning a lottery, and were less discouraged by rejection. ..."
"... By and large, 'librul' economists ignore distribution...preferring to concentrate on growth from policies like corporate-negotiated 'free' trade and trickle down monetary policy that favors the Wall Street banking cartel. ..."
"... BTW what happened to Krugman's perfunctory twice a year column on inequality? ..."
"... The nicotine addict cares about as much about 'risk under uncertainty' as Harford. ..."
What if Sociologists Had as Much Influence as
Economists? https://nyti.ms/2m9yDHL via
@UpshotNYT
NYT - NEIL IRWIN - MARCH 17, 2017
Walk half a city block in downtown Washington, and there is a good chance that you will pass an
economist; people with advanced training in the field shape policy on subjects as varied as how
health care is provided, broadcast licenses auctioned, or air pollution regulated.
Turn on cable news, and the guests who opine on the weighty public policy questions of the
day quite often have some title like "chief economist" underneath their name. And there are economists
sprinkled throughout the government - there is an entire council of them advising the president
in most administrations, if not yet in this one.
But as much as we love economics here - this column is named Economic View, after all - there
just may be a downside to this one academic discipline having such primacy in shaping public policy.
They say when all you have is a hammer, every problem looks like a nail. And the risk is that
when every policy adviser is an economist, every problem looks like inadequate per-capita gross
domestic product.
Another academic discipline may not have the ear of presidents but may actually do a better
job of explaining what has gone wrong in large swaths of the United States and other advanced
nations in recent years.
Sociologists spend their careers trying to understand how societies work. And some of the most
pressing problems in big chunks of the United States may show up in economic data as low employment
levels and stagnant wages but are also evident in elevated rates of depression, drug addiction
and premature death. In other words, economics is only a piece of a broader, societal problem.
So maybe the people who study just that could be worth listening to.
"Once economists have the ears of people in Washington, they convince them that the only questions
worth asking are the questions that economists are equipped to answer," said Michèle Lamont, a
Harvard sociologist and president of the American Sociological Association. "That's not to take
anything away from what they do. It's just that many of the answers they give are very partial."
As a small corrective, I took a dive into some sociological research with particular relevance
to the biggest problems facing communities in advanced countries today to understand what kinds
of lessons the field can offer. In 1967, Senator Walter Mondale actually proposed a White House
Council of Social Advisers that he envisioned as a counterpart to the well-entrenched Council
of Economic Advisers. It was never created, but if it had been, this is the sort of advice it
might have been giving recent presidents.
For starters, while economists tend to view a job as a straightforward exchange of labor for
money, a wide body of sociological research shows how tied up work is with a sense of purpose
and identity.
"Wages are very important because of course they help people live and provide for their families,"
said Herbert Gans, an emeritus professor of sociology at Columbia. "But what social values can
do is say that unemployment isn't just losing wages, it's losing dignity and self-respect and
a feeling of usefulness and all the things that make human beings happy and able to function.
That seems to be doubly true in the United States. For example, Ofer Sharone, a sociologist
at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, studied unemployed white-collar workers and found
that in the United States, his subjects viewed their ability to land a job as a personal reflection
of their self-worth rather than a matter of arbitrary luck. They therefore took rejection hard,
blaming themselves and in many cases giving up looking for work. In contrast, in Israel similar
unemployed workers viewed getting a job as more like winning a lottery, and were less discouraged
by rejection.
It seems plausible that this helps explain why so many Americans who lost jobs in the 2008
recession have never returned to the labor force despite an improved job market. Mr. Sharone is
working with career counselors to explore how to put this finding to work to help the long-term
unemployed. ...
By and large, 'librul' economists ignore distribution...preferring to concentrate on growth from
policies like corporate-negotiated 'free' trade and trickle down monetary policy that favors the
Wall Street banking cartel.
BTW what happened to Krugman's perfunctory twice a year column on inequality?
Why
Mainstream Economists' Theory of Finance is Useless
by Ismael Hossein-Zadeh
"A major reason for these economists' bewilderment in the
face of financial bubbles and bursts is that, according to
their theoretical shibboleth, expansion of finance/fictitious
capital on a macro or national level is not supposed to
deviate much from that of industrial/real capital, as the
magnitude of the former is essentially determined or limited
by the requirements of the real sector of the economy.
The theory maintains that there is an auspicious synergy
between the financial and real sectors of an economy: finance
capital tends to shadow industrial capital as if its main
function is to grease the wheels of the real sector, that is,
of manufacturing and commercial undertakings -just as it was
more or less the case in the early stages of capitalism, when
there was not yet a large, independent financial sector.
"the U.S. middle class - with household incomes ranging from two-thirds to double the national
median"
Median household income in the US in 2015 was less the $60K. Two-thirds is $40K. That's almost
poverty not middle class.
Sociologically the middle class is a quasi-elite of professionals and managers, who are largely
immune to economic downturns and trends such as out-sourcing.
The definition game? Define something to something else as is being talked about and then claim,
claims based on a completely different definition are false?
Actually with the change in ratio professionals and managers now tend to upper middle class, (29%
of us is upper middle now, 32% middle).
One of the influences is that post WWII it was possible to be middle class and work on an assembly
line in a job that was described as check your brain at the door. Automation and process changes
have wiped the high pay of such jobs out. Steel makers for example thru mainly process changes
(electric furnaces using scrap, continuous casting and the like) mean that it takes 1/5 the hours
to produce a ton of steel in did in the 1970s.
The movement of assembly line jobs to the middle class occured because there was a period where
the US was much less involved with the rest of the world economically, because their industries
had all been destroyed. The change started during the Johnson admin, and showed up in the high
inflation of the Nixon admin.
Most "professionals and managers" are nowhere near being immune to downturns and outsourcing,
in aggregate.
You could likewise claim that "low skilled" or any other occupations are "immune" as somewhere
around 70-80% of their members continue being employed through tough times, in aggregate.
If you take "tech", companies laying off around 5-10% or even more of their staff in busts
is a frequent enough occurrence. And that's in addition to the "regular" age discrimination and
cycling of workers justified with "outdated skills". Being young and (supposedly) impressionable
is a skill!
"the U.S. middle class - with household incomes ranging from two-thirds to double the national
median"
That's almost tautological. By definition, there can't be a whole lot of change in the population
of groups defined relative to median. Income and wealth of those groups, though, can be enlightening.
Substitute "mean" for "median" and watch what happens. When inequality is driven by extremes
at the tail, using "median" means that you don't see much change in the demographics. (Hint: if
"middle class" is defined as half to twice the average income, there are damned few in that bracket.)
"Non-OPEC oil producers keep on pumping, deliver just 64%
of pledged output cuts in Feb, source says"
Reuters...3-17-2017...7 Hours Ago
"Eleven non-OPEC oil producers that joined a global deal
to reduce output to boost prices delivered 64 percent of
promised cuts in February, an industry source said on Friday,
still lagging the higher levels of OPEC itself.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC), Russia and other producers agreed to cut production
by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) from Jan. 1 to boost
prices and reduce a supply glut.
On Thursday, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih urged
better delivery from exporters that have vowed to reduce
their oil supply.
"It's a learning process for some countries and we want
them to accelerate that learning and get on board fully," he
told CNBC.
Compliance numbers were reviewed at a meeting in Vienna on
Friday comprised of officials from countries monitoring
adherence to agreed output levels - OPEC members Kuwait,
Venezuela, Algeria plus non-OPEC Russia and Oman.
Russia plans to step up its adherence, saying on Friday
that it will cut output by the full amount it had pledged -
300,000 bpd - by the end of April and will maintain that
level until the deal expires at the end of June.
Last week, Al-Falih told CNBC that Russia had cut more
slowly than he would have liked in the first two months of
the deal, but confirmed Moscow was accelerating reductions in
March. Saudi Arabia has provided the lion's share of output
curbs to date.
The meeting on Friday also discussed OPEC's own
compliance, which it put at 106 percent..."
That's the *optimists'* take on the Trump administration.
It's clear they are incompetent, but I don't think we can be sanguine.
Mainly because, if something isn't outright unconstitutional, we are reliant on massive
numbers of citizens noticing the malevolence and becoming outraged enough to scare the few
squishy members of the GOP caucus into backing off.
But that's a fairly high bar.
On healthcare the GOP stepped on a rake, but that's an issue where many people are VERY
significantly affected in visible, immediate ways. It's funny that even Trump seems to
recognize this, so his admin is bravely leading from behind on the push to pass the
American Health Carnage Act.
But contrast healthcare with something like climate change. Trump proposes to erase not
only rules on immediate issues, but also very forward looking stuff like basic energy
technology research and the people and satellites used *just to study the climate*.
Is there a natural constituency of GOP base voters that is going to become activated
enough to stop this? If not, what might?
I don't see any barriers to a good portion of the malevolence, even if it is
incompetent. The Trump admin and the GOP have turned incompetence like a badge of honor and
their base voters love it.
Bat shit insanity on health
care preceded Trump. The truly incompetent one is the Speaker of the House. And he is
considered the policy wonk for the House Republicans. Trump is beyond awful but he is no
worse than your modern Republican Party.
True, and it has been a mild
surprise to me how poorly the GOP (ex-Trump) has executed on its agenda.
I always thought
they were *pretending* not to understand how healthcare economics worked to cynically gin
up anti-ACA talking points.
But it turns out, they really have no clue what they are talking about. They drank their
own kool aid. They are what Stephen Colbert used to describe as "batshit serious."
The Great Recession clearly gave rise to right-wing
populism
by Ryan Cooper
at's to blame for the resurgence of racist right-wing
populism? Since the election of President Trump, the American
left has been consumed with this question, with leftists
blaming the failures of neoliberal economic policy and
liberals leaning more on cultural explanations.
Over at Vox, Zack Beauchamp has an entry in this debate on
the latter side. He argues that left-wing economic policy
actually causes people to be more racist, largely because
welfare states tend to disproportionately benefit poor
minorities and immigrants, and hence raise resentment among
whites. But his account of economics is jarringly incomplete
- in particular, skipping almost entirely over the financial
collapse of 2008, the ensuing plague of austerity, and the
ongoing eurozone currency crisis. And this provides by far
the strongest evidence for the leftist case.
Let's review. In 2008, the whole world was convulsed by a
financial crisis, leading to mass unemployment in the United
States and Europe. The initial response was fairly similar in
both places, featuring immense public bailouts of ailing
banks. But after that, there was a sharp divergence: America
generally tried large fiscal and monetary stimulus, while
Europe did the opposite with spending cuts and tax increases
- that is, austerity - and tight money.
Though the U.S. stimulus was inadequate, the worst was
avoided, and economic conditions improved slowly, surpassing
its pre-crisis GDP by 2011. In Europe - and especially within
the eurozone, where the common currency became a gold
standard-esque economic straitjacket - the result was
disaster. So much austerity was forced on debtor nations that
they fell into full-blown depression. Greece's economy is
worse than that of America in the 1930s - and the eurozone as
a whole only matched its pre-crisis GDP in April of last
year.
Mass unemployment is electoral poison, and about every
party that happened to be holding power during the worst of
it - generally either center-right (Fianna Fáil in Ireland,
People of Freedom in Italy) or center-left (the Socialist
Party in France, the Democrats in America) - suffered serious
setbacks in subsequent elections. Radical parties on both the
left and right gained as establishment parties were badly
discredited. New fascist parties (Golden Dawn in Greece)
sprung to prominence, and older fascist-lite ones (National
Front in France) gained strength.
But Beauchamp barely even references this history,
restricting his argument almost entirely to welfare policy.
He assembles reasonably convincing evidence and expert
testimony to the effect that welfare states increase racist
resentment in both the United States and Europe. But he does
not mention mass unemployment, austerity, or the eurozone.
These are yawning absences in an article purporting to deal
with the social effects of economic policy.
Welfare is one chapter of leftist economic policy, but the
first and most important one is full employment. That is the
major route by which leftist economic policy can deflate
right-wing nativism. Center-left parties often claim to
support full employment, but they have manifestly failed to
do so over the last eight years, and arguably long before
that. (President Obama was plumping for austerity in February
of 2010, with unemployment at 9.8 percent.) Fascists organize
best in the chaos and misery of depression, as people lose
faith in traditional solutions and root around for
scapegoats. Is it really a coincidence that the Nazi
electoral high tide came at a time of nearly 30 percent
unemployment?
Now, politics is a chaotic process. It takes a lot of
ideological spadework to convince people that austerity is
the problem, and a lot of time and effort to build a
political coalition dedicated to an anti-austerity platform.
And sometimes it doesn't work well, as Beauchamp's detailed
discussion of the U.K. Labour Party's difficulties since
losing the elections of 2015 (on a pro-austerity platform,
mind you). But savage infighting within the party is likely
just as much to blame for Labour's collapse as leader Jeremy
Corbyn's left-wing views. Sometimes political coalitions
fracture over personality and internal struggles for
dominance.
What's more, Beauchamp doesn't mention other cases where
organizing has been more successful, such as Greece or Spain,
where parties that didn't even exist before the crisis have
leaped to the front rank of politics. In Greece, the
center-left PASOK has all but ceased to exist, while the
left-wing Syriza actually won in 2015 very obviously because
of their anti-austerity platform (the fact that they later
were prevented from implementing it at economic knifepoint by
eurozone elites notwithstanding). Now, the fascists are the
only credible anti-austerity party left in that beleaguered
country.
It's perfectly plausible - obvious even - to say that
immigration or more welfare can lead to a racist backlash,
especially if you means-test benefit policy to restrict it to
disproportionately minority poor people only, as American
liberals tend to do. But it simply beggars belief to argue
that running on full employment and an end to austerity in a
time of depression is a guaranteed loser.
Oh that is my sin. I'm an economist and PeterK hates people
who can actually do analysis. That explains a lot.
libezkova -> pgl...
, -1
The real question is: can quasi religious analysis from the
positions of neoclassical economics be called analysis. Or is
this a new type of Lysenkoism?
"... it is only because mean spirited supply side economists show up on tv and in the media all
the time ..."
"... this is because these are the people the billionairs want to see quoted all the time as they
think it serves their bottom line ..."
"... the one mistake this article makes is assuming that the ones it identifies as economists are
representatives of the true science of economics ..."
"... those economists who do so need to be ashamed of themselves ..."
"What if Sociologists Had as Much Influence as Economists? - NYTimes"
it is only because mean spirited supply side economists show up on tv and in the media
all the time
this is because these are the people the billionairs want to see quoted all the time as
they think it serves their bottom line
however I do not believe they portray the truth about economics and in a just society they
wouldn't even get through their courses
so there is no conflict between economics and sociology
the one mistake this article makes is assuming that the ones it identifies as economists
are representatives of the true science of economics
if economics is involved in maximizing "utility" for everyone, how can so called "economists"
justify policies that harm large portions of the population, harm the environment, deplete natural
resources, keep people in poverty, deny healthcare, propagate wars, advance demagoguery
those economists who do so need to be ashamed of themselves
Making a combined comment on the links about sociological
explanation (NYTimes, Understanding Society, and Tim
Harford):
I want to point out that monocausal explanation in society
is fairly useless, especially in a society-in-crisis, for at
least two very DIFFERENT reasons: 1. complexities, which are
analytical things about lots of specifics, and 2. common
emergence of agreement, a central moral thing about trust.
These sound high-falutin', but they are just shorthand for
two different things which keep coming up in our
conversations everywhere:
there are so many connections and relationships, that
people can find ways to get around certain policies, and
the real determiner of decisions is what everybody
AGREES to be true, -- or has voted upon under majority
rules -- even though what everybody agrees to be true, may
be false.
So therefore, the vested interests of the status quo, at
any moment, are engaged in two very different efforts:
providing so much complicated information and false
information that most people stay confused, and
buying votes, buying elections, buying lobbyists.
Any operating political hack knows this, will tell you
this is his/her job.
This has been going on since the middle of the 18th
Century, perhaps longer. And of course, we see where all this
has led us.
My point in making the distinction, the distinction about
finding 2. common agreement to get anything done under 1.
conditions of complexity & uncertainty, is to get it out of
the way, to clear the floor, to make a very different point:
A majority of the people don't ever have the analytical
skills to sort it out. As follows:
A majority of the people don't have the analytical skills to
sort out the lies. How do we deal with this?
First, realize has little to do with the level of
intelligence or education.
It appears to be a difference in HOW people take
"information" into themselves. There is a big difference
between "orality" and "literacy" cultures. Trump's speeches
give a very good illustration of this, perhaps a perfect
example.
The distinction was first emphasized by Walter Ong in his
perennial book Orality and Literacy (1982). Here is an
adaptation of his list of some traits of "oral" culture:
1. Sounded word is itself power, an action-event. Words
are not taken in as mere signs.
2. Your knowledge is limited to what you can personally
recall: To retain & retrieve information, without reading &
writing, you must think in mnemonic patters shaped for ready
oral recurrence. Thus, heavily rhythmic, balanced,
repetitious. Use of antitheses, alliterations & assonances,
epithetic or other formulary expressions, standard thematic
settings ("the assembly, the meal, the duel, the hero's
helper", etc.) proverbs, etc. This even determines syntax.
3. The logic of argument is additive rather than
subordinative. Use of the conjunction "and", instead of
dependent clauses.
4. The discourse is aggregative rather than analytic:
Elements of thought are clusters, parallel terms, antithetic
terms, recurrent epithets such as "brave" soldier,
"beautiful" princess, etc., and these couplings are rarely
dismantled.
5. Redundant or "copious": Heavy use of repetition because
spoken words evaporate, which would prevent the continuity
that is required for thinking. It also helps overcome the
problem that members of the same audience have different
comprehension levels; and helps overcome acoustical lapses in
the assembly hall.
6. The resulting culture tends to conservative or
traditionalist: Use of repetition accentuates the learning of
ages, to the detriment of new discoveries and innovations.
7. Close to the human lifeworld.
8. Agonistically toned: Knowledge is situated within a
context of STRUGGLE in the lifeworld. Use of challenges,
riddles, proverbs, struggles, descriptions of violence. The
flip-side of this is heavy use of extreme praise: "fantastic,
beautiful", etc.
9. Empathetic & participatory, rather than objectively,
scientifically distanced.
10. Homeostatic: Oral societies live in a present which
keeps itself in equilibrium by sloughing off memories which
no longer have present relevance.
11. Situational rather than abstract.
12. Verbomotor lifestyle: In oral society, courses of
action and attitudes toward issues depend significantly more
on effective use of words and thus on human interaction, and
significantly less on non-verbal, often largely visual input
from the "objective" world of print or things. In addition,
oral folk commonly manifest their schizoid tendencies by
extreme external confusion, leading often to violent action,
including mutilation of self and others: going "berserk,
amok".
13. Noetic role of heroic "heavy" figures, and of the
fantastic & bizarre.
14. Orality, community and the sacred: it is all combined.
Note that Ong's brilliant list describes the cognitive
style of Trump's speeches, of Fox News reportage, and
describes the thought processes and speech-styles of many
voters.
"... Economist James K. Galbraith disputes these claims of the benefit of comparative advantage. He states that "free trade has attained the status of a god" and that ". . . none of the world's most successful trading regions, including Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and now mainland China, reached their current status by adopting neoliberal trading rules." He argues that ". . . comparative advantage is based upon the concept of constant returns: the idea that you can double or triple the output of any good simply by doubling or tripling the inputs. But this is not generally the case. For manufactured products, increasing returns, learning, and technical change are the rule, not the exception; the cost of production falls with experience. With increasing returns, the lowest cost will be incurred by the country that starts earliest and moves fastest on any particular line. Potential competitors have to protect their own industries if they wish them to survive long enough to achieve competitive scale."[42] ..."
"... Galbraith, as always, is very succinct and readable. I well remember sitting in an economics lecture in the 1980's when the Professor mentioned Galbraith and described him as with distain someone 'who's ideas were more popular with the public than with economists'. The snigger of agreement that ran around the students in the hall made me realise just how ingrained the ideology of economics was as I'm pretty sure I was the only one of the students who'd actually read any Galbraith. ..."
"... I'd also recommend Ha-Joon Chang as someone who is very readable on the topic of the many weaknesses of conventional ideas on comparative advantage. ..."
"... "The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness." ..."
"... I've noticed many experts are especially bad at verbosity. Maybe they think somehow that quantity of words is a form of potency. Maybe that's it. Also individuals with a grievance who write posts about their grievance. I know when I have a grievance it's hard to shut up. I'm just being honest. I'll keep rambling and rambling, repeating myelf and fulminating. Thankfully I know better than to write like that. ..."
"... Thing 13: Making rich people richer doesn't make the rest of us richer. Trickle down economics doesn't work because wealth doesn't trickle down. It trickles up, which is why the rich are the rich in the first place ..."
"... Thing 23: Good economic policy does not require good economists. Most of the really important economic issues, the ones that decide whether nations sink or swim, are within the intellectual reach of intelligent non-economists. Academic Economics with a capital "E" has remarkably little to say about the things that really matter. Concerned citizens need to stop being intimidated by the experts here. ..."
"... Although Ha Joon Chang is an excellent economist, I would also strongly recommend Michael Hudson, Michael Perelman, Steve Keen and E. Ray Canterbery - they are really great, along with Samir Amin of Senegal. ..."
"... A major issue is that those incapable politicians do rely upon experts, but they have consistently selected experts not on their track record (such as how good economists were at predicting the evolution of the economy, or how good political scientists were at predicting the evolution of communist or Arab societies), but on whether pronouncements of experts corresponded to their ideological preconceptions and justified their intended policies. ..."
"... A bit like rejecting physicians' diagnoses when they do not suit you and preferring the cure of a quack. ..."
"... This is not restricted to economists, it pervasive in science in general. I can't remember how many times I got a paper for peer review where I couldn't figure out what the person was trying to say because they layered the jargon ten levels deep. ..."
"... I think it is as simple as: if you create something that justifies the behaviors of the rich and powerful, you have something to sell and willing buyers. If you create something that delegitimizes the behaviors of the rich and powerful, you not only have no willing patrons but you have made powerful enemies. ..."
"... It is the law of supply and demand for pretentious bullshit. ..."
"... Leave workers exposed to starvation long enough and they'll work for next- to-nothing. The solution to James O'Connor's Fiscal Crisis of the State is to clean house in a big way, a very big way. Put everyone out on the street and start all over again. (Everyone but the 1% of course.) ..."
"... It's Andrew Mellon's advice for getting out of the Depression: "liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate it will purge the rottenness out of the system. High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people." ..."
"... The Reserve Army of Labor saves the Capitalist Day, once again. (Except for the little problem that the 1% won't accept their own liquidation, so Goldman Sachs and the rest must be exempted from the purging–which means that the purging can't work.) ..."
"... Not too long before he died, Paul Samuelson said: "Maybe I was wrong on the subject of jobs offshoring." (I.e., maybe offshoring all the jobs and dismantling the US economy wasn't so intelligent after all!) ..."
"... C. Wright Mills called them "crackpot realists." ..."
"... It's all a part and parcel of the meritocracy. If you don't have a degree in Econ, your opinion doesn't matter about why your job moved to China. If you don't have a degree in Urban Planning, you don't get to comment on how the city wants to tear down the park and put up condos. ..."
"... Their advice helped lead to this 2008 Financial Crisis. The promise of neoliberalism was faster growth. It did not happen. Quite the opposite. It gave the rich intellectual cover to loot society. That"s what this was always about. ..."
"... Then there's the matter of the Iraq War. Another example. Many foreign policy "experts", particularly affiliated with the neoconservative assured the American people that invading Iraq would be easy to do and lead to lots of long term benefits. Others insisted, despite evidence to the contrary, that Saddam was developing weapons of mass destruction. Now look at where we are. No WMDs, long and cost war, with no long-term solutions. Many of said "experts" later endorsed Clinton. ..."
"... We do not need pro-Establishment experts who sell themselves out to enrich themselves. We need experts who act in the public interest. ..."
First, to explain our basic concepts and most important insights in plain English. Famously,
Paul Samuelson, the founder of modern macroeconomics, was asked whether economics told us anything
that was true but not obvious. It took him a couple of years, but eventually he gave an excellent
and topical example – simply the theory of comparative advantage.
Similarly, I often say that the most useful thing I did in my 6 years as Chief Economist at
DWP was to explain the lump of labour fallacy – that there isn't a fixed number of jobs in the
economy, and increased immigration or more women working adds to both labour demand and labour
supply – to six successive Secretaries of State. So that's the first.
Second is to call bullshit.
O.K. I call bullshit. What Portes explained "to six successive Secretaries of State" was
a figment of the imagination of a late 18th century Lancashire magistrate, a self-styled "
friend
to the poor " who couldn't understand why poor people got so upset about having their wages cut
or losing their jobs - to the extent they would go around throwing rocks through windows, breaking
machines and burning down factories - when it was obvious to him that it was all for the best
and in the long run we would all be better off or else dead.
I call bullshit because what Portes explained to six successive Secretaries of State was
simply the return of the repressed - the obverse of "Say's Law" (which was neither Say's nor a Law)
that "supply creates its own demand," which John Maynard Keynes demolished in The General Theory
of Employment, Interest and Money and that John Kenneth Galbraith subsequently declared "
sank without trace " in the wake of Keynes's demolition of it.
I call bullshit because when Paul Samuelson resurrected the defunct fallacy claim that
Portes explained to six successive Secretaries of State, he did so on the condition that governments
pursued the sorts of "Keynesian" job-creating policies that the discredited principle of "supply
creates its own demand" insisted were both unnecessary and counter-productive.
But the lump of labor argument implies that there is only so much useful remunerative work
to be done in any economic system, and that is indeed a fallacy . If proper and sound
monetary, fiscal, and pricing policies are being vigorously promulgated , we need not resign
ourselves to mass unemployment. And although technological unemployment is not to be shrugged
off lightly, its optimal solution lies in offsetting policies that create adequate job
opportunities and new skills.
[Incidentally, as Robert Schiller has noted, the promised prevention of mass unemployment by vigorous
policy intervention did not imply the preservation of wage levels. Schiller cited the following passage
from the Samuelson textbook, " a decrease in the demand for a particular kind of labor because of
technological shifts in an industry can he adapted to - lower relative wages and migration of labor
and capital will eventually provide new jobs for the displaced workers."]
I call bullshit because what Portes explained to six successive Secretaries of State was
not even Paul Samuelson's policy-animated zombie lump-of-labour fallacy but a supply-side, anti-inflationary
retrofit cobbled together by Richard Layard and associates and touted by Tony Blair and Gerhard Schroeder
as the Third Way " new supply-side
agenda for the left. " Central to that agenda were tax cuts to promote economic growth and
"active labour market policies" to foster non-inflationary expansion of employment by making conditions
more "flexible" and lower-waged:
Part-time work and low-paid work are better than no work because they ease the transition from
unemployment to jobs.
Encourage employers to offer 'entry' jobs to the labour market by lowering the burden of tax
and social security contributions on low-paid jobs.
Adjustment will be the easier, the more labour and product markets are working properly. Barriers
to employment in relatively low productivity sectors need to be lowered if employees displaced
by the productivity gains that are an inherent feature of structural change are to find jobs elsewhere.
The labour market needs a low-wage sector in order to make low-skill jobs available.
I call bullshit because in defending the outcomes of supply-side labour policies, Portes soft-pedaled
the stated low-wage objectives of the Third Way agenda. In a
London Review of Books review, Portes admitted that "it may drive down wages for the low-skilled,
but the effect is small compared to that of other factors (technological change, the national minimum
wage and so on)." In the Third Way supply-side agenda, however, a low-wage sector was promoted as
a desirable feature - making more low-skill jobs available - not a trivial bug to be brushed aside.
In other words, in "driving down wages for the low skilled" the policy was achieving exactly what
it was intended to but Portes was "too discreet" to admit that was the stated objectives of the policy.
Economist James K. Galbraith disputes these claims of the benefit of comparative advantage.
He states that "free trade has attained the status of a god" and that ". . . none of the world's
most successful trading regions, including Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and now mainland China, reached
their current status by adopting neoliberal trading rules." He argues that ". . . comparative
advantage is based upon the concept of constant returns: the idea that you can double or triple
the output of any good simply by doubling or tripling the inputs. But this is not generally
the case. For manufactured products, increasing returns, learning, and technical change are
the rule, not the exception; the cost of production falls with experience. With increasing
returns, the lowest cost will be incurred by the country that starts earliest and moves fastest
on any particular line. Potential competitors have to protect their own industries if they
wish them to survive long enough to achieve competitive scale."[42]
Galbraith also contends that "For most other commodities, where land or ecology places limits
on the expansion of capacity, the opposite condition – diminishing returns – is the rule. In
this situation, there can be no guarantee that an advantage of relative cost will persist once
specialization and the resultant expansion of production take place. A classic and tragic example,
studied by Erik Reinert, is transitional Mongolia, a vast grassland with a tiny population
and no industry that could compete on world markets. To the World Bank, Mongolia seemed a classic
case of comparative advantage in animal husbandry, which in Mongolia consisted of vast herds
of cattle, camels, sheep, and goats. Opening of industrial markets collapsed domestic industry,
while privatization of the herds prompted the herders to increase their size. This led, within
just a few years in the early 1990s, to overgrazing and permanent desertification of the subarctic
steppe and, with a slightly colder than normal winter, a massive famine in the herds."
Galbraith, as always, is very succinct and readable. I well remember sitting in an economics
lecture in the 1980's when the Professor mentioned Galbraith and described him as with distain
someone 'who's ideas were more popular with the public than with economists'. The snigger of agreement
that ran around the students in the hall made me realise just how ingrained the ideology of economics
was as I'm pretty sure I was the only one of the students who'd actually read any Galbraith.
I'd also recommend Ha-Joon Chang
as someone who is very readable on the topic of the many weaknesses of conventional ideas on comparative
advantage.
James K Galbraith is the son of the famous New Deal economist John K Galbraith.
John K G:
"The modern conservative is engaged in one of man's oldest exercises in moral philosophy;
that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness."
"In the case of economics there are no important propositions that cannot be stated in plain
language."
"I was an editor of Fortune under Henry Luce, the founder of Time, Inc., who was one of the
most ruthless editors that I have ever known, that anyone has ever known. Henry could look over
a sheet of copy and say, "This can go, and this can go, and this can go," and you would be left
with eight to ten lines which said everything that you had said in twenty lines before.
And I can still, to this day, not write a page without the feeling that Henry Luce is looking
over my shoulder and saying, "That can go." That illuminate one "problem" in our age of internet,
unlimited space to be verbose and no editors that de-obscure the writers "thoughts".
I wonder if this phenomenon – the desirability succinct communication -- was a holdover of
earlier times, when accurate communication made the difference between life and death. Settling
and developing a continent would place a high value on such purposeful human exchanges.
Today, we are awash in branding and marketing intended to maintain the current order. The language
is used to obfuscate, not clarify experience or goals.
An expert in any field that has the ability to communicate in a general , popular mode, is
of great value to society. Truth and understanding is its main function. Knowledge, or insight
that cannot be shared is more often than not just an excuse to hide methods of control and exploitation.
If citizens can't get the generalities right, the specifics will be impossible to comprehend.
Almost everything can go. I remember seeing a video of the photographer William Klein saying
a master photographer is remembered for just a handfull of images. Maybe 10 or 15, tops. Out of
probably at least 100,000 serious photos.
Of course what goes is necessary fertilizer for what doesn't go. You can't avoid it. Hahahah.
But you have to let it go anyway. Or your editor has to be williing to cut.
I've noticed lots and lots of posts here could be a lot better if the post author had said
the same thing in half as many words. Most wouldn't lose any persuasion, if they had any to begin
with. And they'd gain reader attention for the pruning.
I've noticed many experts are especially bad at verbosity. Maybe they think somehow that
quantity of words is a form of potency. Maybe that's it. Also individuals with a grievance who
write posts about their grievance. I know when I have a grievance it's hard to shut up. I'm just
being honest. I'll keep rambling and rambling, repeating myelf and fulminating. Thankfully I know
better than to write like that.
Having saidd all that, Say was rite. If the supply of labor increases, that createes its
own demand for jobs! How is that not completely obvious.
Huffington Post review has a synopsis of the Ha-Joon Change book.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ian-fletcher/a-review-of-ha-joon-chang_b_840417.html
My favorite: Thing 13: Making rich people richer doesn't make the rest of us richer. Trickle down economics
doesn't work because wealth doesn't trickle down. It trickles up, which is why the rich are the
rich in the first place
Thanks for the tip PK & thank you fd for the link to the review. I'm going to check this fellow
out; sounds like he has some interesting things to say. One of the "things" that may apply to
the above article:
Thing 23: Good economic policy does not require good economists. Most of the really important
economic issues, the ones that decide whether nations sink or swim, are within the intellectual
reach of intelligent non-economists. Academic Economics with a capital "E" has remarkably little
to say about the things that really matter. Concerned citizens need to stop being intimidated
by the experts here.
Although Ha Joon Chang is an excellent economist, I would also strongly recommend Michael
Hudson, Michael Perelman, Steve Keen and E. Ray Canterbery - they are really great, along with
Samir Amin of Senegal.
A word of warning from the UK. Denigrate experts too much and you end up like us with government
by people who really are inexpert. That is not an improvement.
Ha! I think an anti brexiter just rolled the white eye.
Strange that the awful things that the experts told us all would happen haven't and don't look
like happening since the people called bullshit on the EU mess. Britain with or without those
blokes in dresses up north will do just fine as they steer themselves out of the EU quagmire.
I'll take the people anytime anonymous – they have more common sense than the experts. Didn't
you read the article?
I remember back in the 1980s, when so-called "experts" were prattling about such nonsense as
. . .
"Computers don't make mistakes, humans make mistakes !"
Which was surely untrue as anyone with any real IT expertise back then would have explained
that 97% or more of hardware crashes generate software problems (for obvious reasons).
A major issue is that those incapable politicians do rely upon experts, but they have consistently
selected experts not on their track record (such as how good economists were at predicting the
evolution of the economy, or how good political scientists were at predicting the evolution of
communist or Arab societies), but on whether pronouncements of experts corresponded to their ideological
preconceptions and justified their intended policies.
A bit like rejecting physicians' diagnoses when they do not suit you and preferring the
cure of a quack.
This is not restricted to economists, it pervasive in science in general. I can't remember
how many times I got a paper for peer review where I couldn't figure out what the person was trying
to say because they layered the jargon ten levels deep. This is in chemistry, so things are
typically straightforward, no need for convoluted explanations and massaging of the data.
But people still do it because that's the culture that they've been educated in, a scientific
paper has to be high-brow, using obscure words and complicated sentences.
I think it is as simple as: if you create something that justifies the behaviors of the
rich and powerful, you have something to sell and willing buyers. If you create something that
delegitimizes the behaviors of the rich and powerful, you not only have no willing patrons but
you have made powerful enemies.
It is the law of supply and demand for pretentious bullshit.
So in the end, we wind up with Say's Law anyway, since creating a "low wages" sector is exactly
how Say's Law functions–supply creates its own demand because declining wages means investment
spending can increase, which keeps aggregate demand where it needs to be for full employment.
This is the solution, we are told, to Keynes "sticky prices." Jim Grant makes this very argument
in his book about the "short-lived" crisis of the early 1920s. Leave workers exposed to starvation
long enough and they'll work for next- to-nothing. The solution to James O'Connor's Fiscal Crisis
of the State is to clean house in a big way, a very big way. Put everyone out on the street and
start all over again. (Everyone but the 1% of course.)
It's Andrew Mellon's advice for getting out of the Depression: "liquidate labor, liquidate
stocks, liquidate farmers, liquidate real estate it will purge the rottenness out of the system.
High costs of living and high living will come down. People will work harder, live a more moral
life. Values will be adjusted, and enterprising people will pick up from less competent people."
The Reserve Army of Labor saves the Capitalist Day, once again. (Except for the little
problem that the 1% won't accept their own liquidation, so Goldman Sachs and the rest must be
exempted from the purging–which means that the purging can't work.)
Not too long before he died, Paul Samuelson said: "Maybe I was wrong on the subject of
jobs offshoring." (I.e., maybe offshoring all the jobs and dismantling the US economy wasn't so
intelligent after all!)
Just finished a book called, The Death of Expertise , by a professor of national security
(oh give me a frigging break!!!!), Tom Nichols.
Biggest pile of crapola I have ever read! The author was also yearning for the days when "experts"
were blindly followed!
It's all a part and parcel of the meritocracy. If you don't have a degree in Econ, your
opinion doesn't matter about why your job moved to China. If you don't have a degree in Urban
Planning, you don't get to comment on how the city wants to tear down the park and put up condos.
The answer is that said "experts" have failed the general public miserably.
Their advice helped lead to this 2008 Financial Crisis. The promise of neoliberalism was
faster growth. It did not happen. Quite the opposite. It gave the rich intellectual cover to loot
society. That"s what this was always about.
Now people wonder, why they don't trust "experts"?
Then there's the matter of the Iraq War. Another example. Many foreign policy "experts",
particularly affiliated with the neoconservative assured the American people that invading Iraq
would be easy to do and lead to lots of long term benefits. Others insisted, despite evidence
to the contrary, that Saddam was developing weapons of mass destruction. Now look at where we
are. No WMDs, long and cost war, with no long-term solutions. Many of said "experts" later endorsed
Clinton.
We do not need pro-Establishment experts who sell themselves out to enrich themselves.
We need experts who act in the public interest.
Israeli Practices towards the Palestinian People and the
Question of Apartheid: Palestine and the Israeli Occupation
By United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western
Asia
Executive Summary
This report concludes that Israel has established an
apartheid regime that dominates the Palestinian people as a
whole. Aware of the seriousness of this allegation, the
authors of the report conclude that available evidence
establishes beyond a reasonable doubt that Israel is guilty
of policies and practices that constitute the crime of
apartheid as legally defined in instruments of international
law.
The analysis in this report rests on the same body of
international human rights law and principles that reject
anti-Semitism and other racially discriminatory ideologies,
including: the Charter of the United Nations (1945), the
Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948), and the
International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of
Racial Discrimination (1965). The report relies for its
definition of apartheid primarily on article II of the
International Convention on the Suppression and Punishment of
the Crime of Apartheid (1973, hereinafter the Apartheid
Convention):
The term "the crime of apartheid", which shall include
similar policies and practices of racial segregation and
discrimination as practiced in southern Africa, shall apply
to inhuman acts committed for the purpose of establishing
and maintaining domination by one racial group of persons
over any other racial group of persons and systematically
oppressing them.
Although the term "apartheid" was originally associated
with the specific instance of South Africa, it now represents
a species of crime against humanity under customary
international law and the Rome Statute of the International
Criminal Court, according to which:
"The crime of apartheid" means inhumane acts committed in
the context of an institutionalized regime of systematic
oppression and domination by one racial group over any other
racial group or groups and committed with the intention of
maintaining that regime.
Against that background, this report reflects the expert
consensus that the prohibition of apartheid is universally
applicable and was not rendered moot by the collapse of
apartheid in South Africa and South West Africa (Namibia).
The legal approach to the matter of apartheid adopted by
this report should not be confused with usage of the term in
popular discourse as an expression of opprobrium. Seeing
apartheid as discrete acts and practices (such as the
"apartheid wall"), a phenomenon generated by anonymous
structural conditions like capitalism ("economic apartheid"),
or private social behaviour on the part of certain racial
groups towards others (social racism) may have its place in
certain contexts. However, this report anchors its definition
of apartheid in international law, which carries with it
responsibilities for States, as specified in international
instruments.
The choice of evidence is guided by the Apartheid
Convention, which sets forth that the crime of apartheid
consists of discrete inhuman acts, but that such acts acquire
the status of crimes against humanity only if they
intentionally serve the core purpose of racial domination.
The Rome Statute specifies in its definition the presence of
an "institutionalized regime" serving the "intention" of
racial domination. Since "purpose" and "intention" lie at the
core of both definitions, this report examines factors
ostensibly separate from the Palestinian dimension -
especially, the doctrine of Jewish statehood as expressed in
law and the design of Israeli State institutions - to
establish beyond doubt the presence of such a core purpose.
That the Israeli regime is designed for this core purpose
was found to be evident in the body of laws, only some of
which are discussed in the report for reasons of scope. One
prominent example is land policy. The Israeli Basic Law
(Constitution) mandates that land held by the State of
Israel, the Israeli Development Authority or the Jewish
National Fund shall not be transferred in any manner, placing
its management permanently under their authority. The State
Property Law of 1951 provides for the reversion of property
(including land) to the State in any area "in which the law
of the State of Israel applies". The Israel Lands Authority
(ILA) manages State land, which accounts for 93 per cent of
the land within the internationally recognized borders of
Israel and is by law closed to use, development or ownership
by non-Jews. Those laws reflect the concept of "public
purpose" as expressed in the Basic Law. Such laws may be
changed by Knesset vote, but the Basic Law: Knesset prohibits
any political party from challenging that public purpose.
Effectively, Israeli law renders opposition to racial
domination illegal.
Demographic engineering is another area of policy serving
the purpose of maintaining Israel as a Jewish State. Most
well known is Israeli law conferring on Jews worldwide the
right to enter Israel and obtain Israeli citizenship
regardless of their countries of origin and whether or not
they can show links to Israel-Palestine, while withholding
any comparable right from Palestinians, including those with
documented ancestral homes in the country. The World Zionist
Organization and Jewish Agency are vested with legal
authority as agencies of the State of Israel to facilitate
Jewish immigration and preferentially serve the interests of
Jewish citizens in matters ranging from land use to public
development planning and other matters deemed vital to Jewish
statehood. Some laws involving demographic engineering are
expressed in coded language, such as those that allow Jewish
councils to reject applications for residence from
Palestinian citizens. Israeli law normally allows spouses of
Israeli citizens to relocate to Israel but uniquely prohibits
this option in the case of Palestinians from the occupied
territory or beyond. On a far larger scale, it is a matter of
Israeli policy to reject the return of any Palestinian
refugees and exiles (totalling some six million people) to
territory under Israeli control.
Two additional attributes of a systematic regime of racial
domination must be present to qualify the regime as an
instance of apartheid. The first involves the identification
of the oppressed persons as belonging to a specific "racial
group". This report accepts the definition of the
International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of
Racial Discrimination of "racial discrimination" as "any
distinction, exclusion, restriction or preference based on
race, colour, descent, or national or ethnic origin which has
the purpose or effect of nullifying or impairing the
recognition, enjoyment or exercise, on an equal footing, of
human rights and fundamental freedoms in the political,
economic, social, cultural or any other field of public
life". On that basis, this report argues that in the
geopolitical context of Palestine, Jews and Palestinians can
be considered "racial groups". Furthermore, the International
Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial
Discrimination is cited expressly in the Apartheid
Convention.
The second attribute is the boundary and character of the
group or groups involved. The status of the Palestinians as a
people entitled to exercise the right of self-determination
has been legally settled, most authoritatively by the
International Court of Justice (ICJ) in its 2004 advisory
opinion on Legal Consequences of the Construction of a Wall
in the Occupied Palestinian Territory. On that basis, the
report examines the treatment by Israel of the Palestinian
people as a whole, considering the distinct circumstances of
geographic and juridical fragmentation of the Palestinian
people as a condition imposed by Israel. (Annex II addresses
the issue of a proper identification of the "country"
responsible for the denial of Palestinian rights under
international law.)
This report finds that the strategic fragmentation of the
Palestinian people is the principal method by which Israel
imposes an apartheid regime. It first examines how the
history of war, partition, de jure and de facto annexation
and prolonged occupation in Palestine has led to the
Palestinian people being divided into different geographic
regions administered by distinct sets of law. This
fragmentation operates to stabilize the Israeli regime of
racial domination over the Palestinians and to weaken the
will and capacity of the Palestinian people to mount a
unified and effective resistance. Different methods are
deployed depending on where Palestinians live. This is the
core means by which Israel enforces apartheid and at the same
time impedes international recognition of how the system
works as a complementary whole to comprise an apartheid
regime.
Since 1967, Palestinians as a people have lived in what
the report refers to as four "domains", in which the
fragments of the Palestinian population are ostensibly
treated differently but share in common the racial oppression
that results from the apartheid regime. Those domains are:
1. Civil law, with special restrictions, governing
Palestinians who live as citizens of Israel;
2. Permanent residency law governing Palestinians living
in the city of Jerusalem;
3. Military law governing Palestinians, including those in
refugee camps, living since 1967 under conditions of
belligerent occupation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip;
4. Policy to preclude the return of Palestinians, whether
refugees or exiles, living outside territory under Israel's
control....
The proposal from the State Department would reverse a
decision made late in the Obama administration to suspend the
sale of precision guided munitions to Riyadh, which leads a
mostly Arab coalition conducting air strikes against
Iran-backed Al Houthi rebels in Yemen.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson's approval this week of the
measure, which officials say needs White House backing to go
into effect, provides an early indication of the new
administration's more Saudi-friendly approach to the conflict
in Yemen, and a sign of its more hawkish stance on Iran.
It also signals a break with the more conservative approach
of Obama's administration about US involvement in the
conflict.
The move takes place as the Trump administration considers
its approach to the Yemeni war, which has pitted US and
Saudi-backed Yemeni President Abd Rabbo Mansour Hadi against
an alliance of ousted Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh and
Al Houthi rebels.
...a winning strategy so far. 15 years into the GWOT, the
only light at the end of the tunnel is generated by IEDs.
"... It did not. PR guru John Hill had a plan - and the plan, with hindsight, proved tremendously effective. Despite the fact that its product was addictive and deadly, the tobacco industry was able to fend off regulation, litigation and the idea in the minds of many smokers that its products were fatal for decades. ..."
"... This is the study of how ignorance is deliberately produced; the entire field was started by Proctor's observation of the tobacco industry. The facts about smoking - indisputable facts, from unquestionable sources - did not carry the day. The indisputable facts were disputed. The unquestionable sources were questioned. Facts, it turns out, are important, but facts are not enough to win this kind of argument. ..."
"... Written for and first published in the Financial Times . ..."
"... My book " Messy " is available online in the US and UK or in good bookshops everywhere. ..."
Just before Christmas 1953, the bosses of America's leading tobacco companies met John Hill, the
founder and chief executive of one of America's leading public relations firms, Hill & Knowlton.
Despite the impressive surroundings - the Plaza Hotel, overlooking Central Park in New York - the
mood was one of crisis.
Scientists were publishing solid evidence of a link between smoking and cancer. From the viewpoint
of Big Tobacco, more worrying was that the world's most read publication, The Reader's Digest, had
already reported on this evidence in a 1952 article, "Cancer by the Carton". The journalist Alistair
Cooke, writing in 1954, predicted that the publication of the next big scientific study into smoking
and cancer might finish off the industry.
It did not. PR guru John Hill had a plan - and the plan, with hindsight, proved tremendously effective.
Despite the fact that its product was addictive and deadly, the tobacco industry was able to fend
off regulation, litigation and the idea in the minds of many smokers that its products were fatal
for decades.
So successful was Big Tobacco in postponing that day of reckoning that their tactics have been
widely imitated ever since. They have also inspired a thriving corner of academia exploring how the
trick was achieved. In 1995, Robert Proctor, a historian at Stanford University who has studied the
tobacco case closely, coined the word "agnotology".
This is the study of how ignorance is deliberately produced; the entire field was started by Proctor's
observation of the tobacco industry. The facts about smoking - indisputable facts, from unquestionable
sources - did not carry the day. The indisputable facts were disputed. The unquestionable sources
were questioned. Facts, it turns out, are important, but facts are not enough to win this kind of
argument.
The Public is Clueless About the Federal Budget and It's
the New York Times' Fault
Paul Krugman criticized * the Trump administration for its
budget, which would cut or eliminate many programs that
benefit low and moderate income people. In his piece, Krugman
points out that the public is incredibly ignorant on the
budget, with most people having virtually no idea of where
most spending goes.
In particular, he referenced an analysis that found people
on average believed we spend more than 30 percent of the
budget on foreign aid. The actual figure is less than one
percent.
This is the sort of item that inevitably leads people to
deplore the ignorance of the masses. While ignorance is
deplorable, instead of blaming the masses, we might more
appropriately look at the elites.
The overwhelming majority of people are never going to
look at a budget document. Insofar as they get any
information on the budget, it is from reporters who tell them
how much we spend in various areas of the budget. (They may
get this information indirectly from their friends who read
the newspaper or listen to news.)
When they hear about spending, they will invariably hear
things like we spend $40 billion a year on foreign aid or
$17.3 billion on Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF).
Most people will think these figures are large sums, since
they dwarf the sums that people see in their daily lives. In
fact, the former is less than one percent of the $4.1
trillion that we will spend in 2017, while the latter is just
over 0.4 percent of total spending.
The media could do a much better job of informing the
public about spending (i.e. doing their job) if they made a
point of putting these figures in context. As it is, giving
people these really huge numbers without context is
essentially telling them nothing. As an alternative, they
could make a point of always referring to these numbers as a
share of the budget and/or expressing them on a per person
basis (e.g. the spending on TANF comes to a bit more than $50
per person per year from every person in the country).
I have harangued reporters on this point for decades. No
reporter has ever tried to argue that any significant share
of their audience had any idea of what these large budget
numbers mean. Yet, the practice persists.
I thought I had scored a big victory in this effort a few
years back when Margaret Sullivan, who was then public editor
of the New York Times, wrote a strong piece * completely
agreeing with the need to express budget numbers in context.
She got David Leonhardt, the NYT's Washington editor at the
time, to agree as well.
This seemed to indicate that the paper would change its
policy on budget reporting. Given the enormous importance of
the NYT, as the nation's preeminent newspaper, such a change
would have a substantial impact on reporting elsewhere. This
was a huge deal, which I celebrated *** at the time.
But no, the NYT did not change its practice. It continued
to report really big numbers, without any context, which
everyone knows are meaningless to the vast majority of even
its well-educated readership.
Okay, so the masses are ignorant about the budget. I and
other economist nerd types would like the public to have more
knowledge about our area of expertise. But the child care
worker who spent her day dealing with out of control three
year olds, or the bus driver who was tied up in traffic for
eight hours, is not going to come home and start looking at
budget documents from the Congressional Budget Office.
At most, these people will spend a few minutes reading the
article about the budget in their local paper or listening to
a short story on the evening news. If these sources just give
them really big numbers, without any context, how is the
public supposed to know about the budget?
Look, I understand that we have racists who want to
believe that all their tax dollars are going to good for
nothing dark-skinned people and that many of them would
believe this regardless of what facts they are presented
with. However we have plenty of non-racists who also believe
something like this because they hear that we spend really
big numbers on TANF, food stamps, and other programs that
help low-income people.
We can point fingers at the racists and denounce their
racism and stupidity if that makes us feel good. But a more
productive path would be to change what we should be able to
change. We should be able to get reporters to do their jobs
and report budget numbers in a way that mean something to
their audience. What's the problem here?
"... The journalist flattered journalists somewhat when he identified them as among two specific groups interested in truth. I found that funny. ..."
"... If we are going to generalize, which I am fine with FWIW, then I would say "journalists" generally enabled the lying last year. It is probably not right to generalize that journalists are particularly interested in truth. ..."
The journalist flattered journalists somewhat when he
identified them as among two specific groups interested in
truth. I found that funny. In the next paragraph he mentions
that journalists have RECENTLY decided that highlighting lies
as lies might be a good idea. Gee, such a uniquely abiding
passion for truth.
If we are going to generalize, which I am fine with FWIW,
then I would say "journalists" generally enabled the lying
last year. It is probably not right to generalize that
journalists are particularly interested in truth. To
generalize, what they seek -- or have until recently sought
-- is "balance." Barf.
Tom Wood has compiled a 30 year list of connections between Trump and Russia. The first 9 pages cover 1987 to 2015, then it moves
to 2016. Every item is sourced, with a hyperlink to the original published news story. Sources include major newspapers, television
stations, magazines, and major Websites. Pages 32 to 118 cover the period of Sept. 16, 2016 to March 14, 2017.
You need to learn what "color revolution" is and what 198 specific methods (within the broad classes of nonviolent protest
and persuasion, non-cooperation (social, economic and political) and nonviolent intervention ) are used to depose the legitimate
government by intelligence agencies.
Please read a couple of Jene Sharp book for a start
Coup or legitimate political pushback depends on which side of the fence one is standing on. There are two competing narratives
to choose from and there is inevitably considerable gray area in between depending on what turns out to be true.
One narrative, coming from the Trump camp, is that President Obama used the nation's intelligence and law enforcement agencies
plus judicious leaks of classified information and innuendo to the media to sabotage Trump during and after the campaign. This
was largely done by spreading malicious claims about the campaign's associates, linking them to criminal activity and even suggesting
that they had been subverted to support Russian interests. As of this date, none of the "Manchurian candidate" allegations have
been supported by evidence because they are not true. The intention of the Obama/Clinton campaign is to explain the election loss
in terms acceptable to the Democratic Party, to hamstring and delegitimize the new administration coming in, and to bring about
the resignation or impeachment of Donald Trump.
It is in all intents and purposes a coup, though without military intervention, as it seeks to overturn a completely legal
and constitutional election.
The contrary viewpoint is that team Trump's ties to Russia constitute an existential national security threat, that the Russians
did steal information relevant to the campaign, did directly involve themselves in the election to discredit U.S. democracy and
elect Trump, and will now benefit from the process, thereby doing grave damage to our country and its interests. Adversarial activity
undertaken since the election is necessary, designed to make sure the new president does not alter or eliminate the documentary
record in intelligence files regarding what took place and to limit Trump's ability to make serious errors in any recalibration
with Moscow. In short, Trump is a dangerous man who might be in bed with an enemy power and has to be watched closely and restrained.
Doing so is necessary to preserve our democratic system.
This is what we know or think we know described chronologically:
The sources all agree that in early 2016 the FBI developed an interest in an internet server in Trump Tower based on allegations
of possible criminal activity, which in this case might have meant suspicion of involvement in Russian mafia activity. The interest
in the server derived from an apparent link to Alfa Bank of Moscow and possibly one other Russian bank, regarding which the metadata
(presumably collected either by the Bureau or NSA) showed frequent and high-volume two-way communications. It is not clear if
a normal criminal warrant was actually sought and approved and/or acted upon but, according to The New York Times , the FBI somehow
determined that the server did not have "any nefarious purpose" and was probably used for marketing or might even have been generating
spam.
The examination of the server was only one part of what was taking place, with The New York Times also reporting that, "For
much of the summer, the FBI pursued a widening investigation into a Russian role in the American presidential campaign. Agents
scrutinized advisers close to Trump, looked for financial connections with Russian financial figures, searched for those involved
in hacking the computers of Democrats ." The article also noted that, "Hillary Clinton's supporters pushed for these investigations,"
which were clearly endorsed by President Obama.
In June, with Trump about to be nominated, some sources claim that the FBI sought a warrant from the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance
Act (FISA) Court to tap into the same Trump Tower server and collect information on the American users of the system. FISA warrants
relate to investigations of foreign intelligence agents but they also permit inadvertent collection of information on the suspect's
American contacts. In this case the name "Trump" was reportedly part of the request. Even though FISA warrants are routinely approved,
this request was turned down for being too broad in its scope.
Also in the summer, a dossier on Trump compiled by former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele that was commissioned
initially by a Republican enemy of Trump and was later picked up and paid for by the Democratic National Committee began to make
the rounds in Washington, though it was not surfaced in the media until January. The dossier was being worked on in June and by
one account was turned over to the FBI in Rome by Steele in July . It later was passed to John McCain in November and was presented
to FBI Director James Comey for action. It contained serious but largely unsubstantiated allegations about Trump's connection
to Russia as a businessman. It also included accounts of some bizarre sexual escapades.
At roughly the same time the Clinton campaign began a major effort to connect Trump with Russia as a way to discredit him and
his campaign and to deflect the revelations of campaign malfeasance coming from WikiLeaks. In late August, Senate Minority Leader
Harry Reid wrote to Comey and demanded that the "connections between the Russian government and Donald Trump's presidential campaign"
be investigated. In September, Senator Diane Feinstein and Representative Adam Schiff of the Senate and House intelligence committees
respectively publicly accused the Russians of meddling in the election "based on briefings we have received."
In October, some sources claim that the FBI resubmitted its FISA request in a "narrowed down" form which excluded Donald Trump
personally but did note that the server was "possibly related" to the Trump campaign. It was approved and surveillance of the
server on national security grounds rather than criminal investigatory grounds may have begun. Bear in mind that Trump was already
the Republican nominee and was only weeks away from the election and this is possibly what Trump was referring to when he expressed
his outrage that the government had "wiretapped" Trump Tower under orders from the White House.
Trump has a point about being "tapped" because the NSA basically records nearly everything. But as president he should already
know that and he presumably approves of it.
Several other sources dismiss the wiretap story as it has appeared in the media. Former Director of National Intelligence James
Clapper "denied" on March 5 that there had been a FISA warrant authorizing surveillance of the Trump Tower server. He stated that
there had never been any surveillance of Trump Tower "to my knowledge" because, if there had been a FISA warrant, he would have
been informed. Critics immediately noted that Clapper has previously lied about surveillance issues and his testimony contradicts
other evidence suggesting that there was a FISA warrant, though none of the sources appear to know if it was ever actually used.
Former George W. Bush White House Attorney General Michael Mukasey provided a view contrary to that of Clapper, saying that "there
was surveillance, and that it was conducted at the behest of the Justice Department through the FISA court." FBI Director Comey
also entered the discussion, claiming in very specific and narrow language that no phones at Trump Tower were "tapped."
The campaign to link Trump to Russia also increased in intensity, including statements by multiple former and current intelligence
agency heads regarding the reality of the Russian threat and the danger of electing a president who would ignore that reality.
It culminated in ex-CIA Acting Director Michael Morell's claim that Trump was "an unwitting agent of the Russian Federation."
British and Dutch intelligence were apparently discreetly queried regarding possible derogatory intelligence on the Trump campaign's
links to Russia and they responded by providing information detailing meetings in Europe. Hundreds of self-described GOP foreign
policy "experts" signed letters stating that they opposed Trump's candidacy and the mainstream media was unrelentingly hostile.
Leading Republicans refused to endorse Trump and some, like Senators John McCain, Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham, cited his connections
to Russia.
President Obama and the first lady also increasingly joined in the fray as the election neared, campaigning aggressively for
Hillary. President Obama called Trump's "flattery" of Vladimir Putin "out of step" with U.S. norms.
After the election, the drumbeat about Trump and Russia continued and even intensified. There was a 25-page report issued by the
Office of the Director of National Intelligence on January 6 called "Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US
Elections . " Four days later, this was followed by the publication of the 35-page report on Trump compiled by British intelligence
officer Christopher Steele. The ODNI report has been criticized as being long on conjecture and short on evidence while the British
report is full of speculation and is basically unsourced. When the Steele dossier first appeared, it was assumed that it would
be fact-checked by the FBI but, if that was ever done, it has not been made public.
Also on January 6, two weeks before the inauguration, Obama reportedly "expanded the power of the National Security Agency
to share globally intercepted personal communications with the government's 18 other intelligence agencies before applying privacy
protections." This made it easier for derogatory or speculative information on individuals to be shared or leaked. The New York
Times interpreted this to be a move intended to "preserve" information relating to the investigation of the Trump campaign's Russian
ties. In this case, wide dissemination was viewed as a way to keep it from being deleted or hidden and to enable further investigation
of what took place.
Two weeks later, just before the inauguration, The New York Times reported that the FBI, CIA, NSA and the Treasury Department
were actively investigating several Trump campaign associates for their Russian ties. There were also reports of a "multiagency
working group to coordinate the investigations across the government."
Leaks to the media on February 8 revealed that there had been late December telephone conversations between national security
advisor designate Michael Flynn and Russian ambassador Sergei Kislyak. The transcripts were apparently leaked by senior intelligence
officials who had access to such highly restricted information, presumably hold-overs from the Obama Administration, and Flynn
was eventually forced to resign on February 13 for having lied to Vice President Mike Pence about the calls. For what it's worth,
some at the CIA, FBI and State Department have been openly discussing and acknowledging that senior officers are behind the leaks.
The State Department is reported to be particularly anti-Trump.
One day after Flynn resigned The Times cited "four current and former officials" to claim that Trump campaign associates had had
"repeated contacts with senior Russian intelligence officials," but admitted that there was no evidence that the campaign had
in any way been influenced by the Russians.
The Attorney General Jeff Sessions saga, which appeared in the media on March 1, is still ongoing. Sessions is being accused of
lying to Congress over two contacts with the Russian ambassador. No one is claiming that he did anything inappropriate with Kislyak
and he denies that he lied, arguing that the question was ambiguous, as was his response. He has agreed to recuse himself from
any investigation of Russia-Trump campaign ties.
Soon thereafter, also on March 1, The New York Times published a major article which I found frightening due to its revelation
regarding executive power . It touched on Sessions, but was more concerned with what was taking place over Russia and Trump. It
was entitled "Obama Administration Rushed to Preserve Intelligence of Russian Election Hacking." It confirmed the previous European
intelligence service involvement in the Trump-Russia investigation and also exposed the long-suspected U.S. intelligence agency
interception of telephone communications of Russian officials "within the Kremlin," revealing that they had been in contact with
Trump representatives.
The Times article also described how in early December Obama had ordered the intelligence community to conduct a full assessment
of Russian activity relating to the election. Soon thereafter the intelligence agencies acting under White House instruction were
pushing Trump-Russia classified information through the system and into analytic documents so it would be accessible to a wide
readership after the inauguration while at the same time burying the actual sources to make it difficult to either identify them
or even assess the reliability of the information. Some of the information even went to European allies. The State Department
reportedly sent a large cache of classified documents relating to Russian attempts to interfere in elections worldwide over to
Senator Ben Cardin, a leading critic of Trump and Russia, shortly before the inauguration.
The Times article claimed, relying on anonymous sources, that President Obama was not directly involved in the efforts to collect
and disseminate the information on Trump and the Russians. Those initiatives were reportedly directed by others, notably some
political appointees working in the White House. I for one find that assertion hard to believe.
The turmoil on Capitol Hill is matched by street rallies and demonstrations denouncing the Trump administration, with much of
the focus on the alleged Russian connection. The similarities and ubiquity in the slogans, the "Resist" signs and the hashtags
#notmypresident have led some to believe that at least a part of the activity is being funded and organized by progressive organizations
that want Trump out. The name George Soros, a Hungarian billionaire and prominent democracy promoter, frequently comes up . Barack
Obama is also reported to be setting up a war room in his new home in Washington D.C. headed by former consigliere Valerie Jarrett
to "lead the fight and strategy to topple Trump." And Hillary Clinton has been engaged in developing a viable opposition to Trump
while still seething about Putin. Two congressional inquiries are pending into the Russian connection and the FBI investigation,
insofar as can be determined, is still active.
"... Britain is one of the so-called "Five Eyes," a group of five English-speaking countries including the United States, which engage in close and intensive collaboration and intelligence sharing. Even within that context the United States and Britain have an unusually tight relationship. In the words of Stephen Lander, a former head of Britain's MI5, relations are so close that "consumers [of intelligence] in both capitals seldom know which country generated either the access or the product itself." ..."
"... Some people writing on intelligence and surveillance note that close working relations like this can allow intelligence agencies to evade domestic controls. ..."
"... The Five Eyes collaboration appears to extend the NSA's surveillance capabilities, giving the agency a way to spy on Americans without technically breaking US laws that would otherwise prohibit such spying. Edward Snowden described the Five Eyes as a "supra-national intelligence organization that doesn't answer to the laws of its own countries." In other words, if US law doesn't protect the privacy rights of British citizens, and British laws don't protect the rights of Americans, then they can just spy on us, we'll spy on them, and our intelligence agencies will just swap information. This evasion of domestic privacy laws would enable essentially unlimited spying unaffected by either collection or usage rules. ..."
"... President Trump is already engaged in an unprecedented battle with large segments of his own intelligence community. Spicer's statement internationalizes the dispute. ..."
Really? This WH is unhinged from all known and verifiable reality and a clear and present danger to our national security, peace,
and prospertiy, imo, of course
"Sean Spicer just suggested that Obama used British intelligence to spy on Trump. Not so much"
"Sean Spicer just suggested that Obama used British intelligence to spy on Trump. Not so much"
By *Henry Farrell...March 16, 2017...7:12 PM
"In his daily press briefing, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer just repeated a claim that President Barack Obama had
used British spies to surveil President Trump. After laying out a number of different media sources which Spicer suggested supported
President Trump's contentions that he was wiretapped, he concluded:
Last, on Fox News on March 14th, Judge Andrew Napolitano made the following statement – quote – Three intelligence sources
have informed Fox News that President Obama went outside the chain of command. He didn't use the NSA, he didn't use the CIA, he
didn't use the FBI, and he didn't use the Department of Justice. He used GCHQ. What is that? It's the initials for the British
intelligence spying agency. So simply by having two people saying to them the president needs transcripts of conversations involving
candidate Trump's conversations, involving President-elect Trump, he's able to get it and there's no American fingerprints on
this. Putting the published accounts and common sense together, this leads to a lot.
This is an explosive accusation.
What's GCHQ?
GCHQ - Government Communications Headquarters - is Britain's equivalent of the National Security Agency. Like the NSA, it engages
in extensive international surveillance. It furthermore has a close relationship with the United States. Britain is one of
the so-called "Five Eyes," a group of five English-speaking countries including the United States, which engage in close and intensive
collaboration and intelligence sharing. Even within that context the United States and Britain have an unusually tight relationship.
In the words of Stephen Lander, a former head of Britain's MI5, relations are so close that "consumers [of intelligence] in both
capitals seldom know which country generated either the access or the product itself."
Close collaboration can lead to temptation
Some people writing on intelligence and surveillance note that close working relations like this can allow intelligence
agencies to evade domestic controls. Jennifer Granick, in her new Cambridge University Press book, American Spies: Modern
Surveillance, Why You Should Care, and What To Do About It, notes that Five Eyes countries aren't supposed to spy on each other's
citizens. However, she says that the NSA has prepared policies that would allow it to spy on Five Eyes citizens without permission.
She furthermore suggests that:
The Five Eyes collaboration appears to extend the NSA's surveillance capabilities, giving the agency a way to spy on Americans
without technically breaking US laws that would otherwise prohibit such spying. Edward Snowden described the Five Eyes as a "supra-national
intelligence organization that doesn't answer to the laws of its own countries." In other words, if US law doesn't protect the
privacy rights of British citizens, and British laws don't protect the rights of Americans, then they can just spy on us, we'll
spy on them, and our intelligence agencies will just swap information. This evasion of domestic privacy laws would enable essentially
unlimited spying unaffected by either collection or usage rules.
Granick notes that if there are rules that would protect Americans from Five Eyes spying, or about the ways that the NSA, FBI
or CIA could use information from foreign partners, we haven't seen them.
But don't jump to conclusions
Granick's arguments point to some important potential problems in close spying relationships. If there are rules to prevent
the abuses that she fears, we don't know what they are. However, her concerns are with surveillance of ordinary citizens. It is
wildly unlikely that U.S. and British intelligence agencies would secretly collaborate to monitor a U.S. presidential candidate.
The political risks to both sides would be quite enormous. While critics like Granick and Snowden worry that intelligence agencies
have too much unchecked power, they happily acknowledge that most members of the intelligence community are motivated by a sincere
concern for American well-being. If the United States was really using foreign intelligence as a cut-out to spy illegally on the
Republican candidate for president, all it would take would be one sincere objector or one worried conservative to create a scandal
that would dwarf Watergate. Nor would British intelligence have any obvious motivation to collaborate in such an arrangement.
The British government knows that it will have to deal with both Democratic and Republican administrations, and would have no
appetite for an intrigue which would have little obvious benefit to Britain, but which could cripple the U.S.-British relationship
for decades.
Nor is there any actual proof
Judge Napolitano, a Fox News television personality, does not seem to have good evidence for these extraordinary claims. As
he describes it on his own website:
Sources have told Fox News that the British foreign surveillance service, the Government Communications Headquarters, known
as GCHQ, most likely provided Obama with transcripts of Trump's calls. The NSA has given GCHQ full 24/7 access to its computers,
so GCHQ - a foreign intelligence agency that, like the NSA, operates outside our constitutional norms - has the digital versions
of all electronic communications made in America in 2016, including Trump's. So by bypassing all American intelligence services,
Obama would have had access to what he wanted with no Obama administration fingerprints.
This statement is notable both for being strategically vague and for not understanding what the NSA does. Spicer quotes a strong
claim by Napolitano on Fox News that Obama "went outside the chain of command" and "used GCHQ." Napolitano is much more cautious
in the print version, where he claims that unnamed intelligence sources said that GCHQ "most likely" provided transcripts. That's
not a claim as to fact, made by someone who claims to have seen the transcripts or had first-hand knowledge of the relationship.
It is a (in my opinion highly dubious) suggestion as to plausibility, made by someone who does not claim to have direct knowledge
of what happened.
Furthermore, Napolitano doesn't seem to have any very strong understanding of the actual controversies between the defenders
and critics of modern surveillance law. For example, Napolitano seems to believe that GCHQ is able to generate transcripts because
it has "full access" to NSA computers, which in turn " has the digital versions of all electronic communications made in America
in 2016, including Trump's." In fact, if the GCHQ were looking for data on American communications, it would be far better advised
to look to its own resources than to the NSA. While critics argue that the NSA collects too much 'incidental' data and metadata
on Americans, they do not claim that the NSA has "the digital versions" (whatever that means) of all American communications,
or anything like it. Napolitano is not a sound source for explosive political claims.
This statement will hurt intelligence cooperation
President Trump is already engaged in an unprecedented battle with large segments of his own intelligence community. Spicer's
statement internationalizes the dispute. U.S. intelligence partners - in the Five Eyes and elsewhere - are already nervous
about sharing sensitive intelligence with the Trump administration, since they do not know how it will be used or who it will
be shared with. This accusation will greatly exacerbate these fears, suggesting that the Trump administration does not prioritize
continued close collaboration with its intelligence partners. Both critics and defenders of cross-national intelligence collaboration
agree that there has been an extraordinarily high level of trust among a few select intelligence agencies since World War II.
The "Five Eyes" was a club that other states clamored to get into (during the Snowden controversy, Germany tried to use revelations
about U.S. spying as a lever to open the door to German participation in the Five Eyes). Now club members have much less reason
to trust each other and membership looks substantially less attractive."
*Henry Farrell is associate professor of political science and international affairs at George Washington University.
He works on a variety of topics, including trust, the politics of the Internet and international and comparative political economy.
== quote ==
The campaign to link Trump to Russia also increased in intensity, including statements by multiple former and current intelligence
agency heads regarding the reality of the Russian threat and the danger of electing a president who would ignore that reality.
It culminated in ex-CIA Acting Director Michael Morell's claim that Trump was "an unwitting agent of the Russian Federation."
British and Dutch intelligence were apparently discreetly queried regarding possible derogatory intelligence on the Trump campaign's
links to Russia and they responded by providing information detailing meetings in Europe.
Hundreds of self-described GOP foreign policy "experts" signed letters stating that they opposed Trump's candidacy and the
mainstream media was unrelentingly hostile.
Leading Republicans refused to endorse Trump and some, like Senators John McCain, Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham, cited his
connections to Russia.
KANSAS CITY, KS-As the debate over the teaching of evolution in public schools continues, a new controversy
over the science curriculum arose Monday in this embattled Midwestern state. Scientists from the
Evangelical Center For Faith-Based Reasoning are now asserting that the long-held "theory of gravity"
is flawed, and they have responded to it with a new theory of Intelligent Falling.
Rev. Gabriel Burdett explains Intelligent Falling.
"Things fall not because they are acted upon by some gravitational force, but because a higher
intelligence, 'God' if you will, is pushing them down," said Gabriel Burdett, who holds degrees in
education, applied Scripture, and physics from Oral Roberts University.
Burdett added: "Gravity-which is taught to our children as a law-is founded on great gaps in understanding.
The laws predict the mutual force between all bodies of mass, but they cannot explain that force.
Isaac Newton himself said, 'I suspect that my theories may all depend upon a force for which philosophers
have searched all of nature in vain.' Of course, he is alluding to a higher power."
Founded in 1987, the ECFR is the world's leading institution of evangelical physics, a branch
of physics based on literal interpretation of the Bible.
According to the ECFR paper published simultaneously this week in the International Journal
Of Science and the adolescent magazine God's Word For Teens! , there are many phenomena
that cannot be explained by secular gravity alone, including such mysteries as how angels fly, how
Jesus ascended into Heaven, and how Satan fell when cast out of Paradise.
The ECFR, in conjunction with the Christian Coalition and other Christian conservative action
groups, is calling for public-school curriculums to give equal time to the Intelligent Falling theory.
They insist they are not asking that the theory of gravity be banned from schools, but only that
students be offered both sides of the issue "so they can make an informed decision."
"We just want the best possible education for Kansas' kids," Burdett said.
Proponents of Intelligent Falling assert that the different theories used by secular physicists
to explain gravity are not internally consistent. Even critics of Intelligent Falling admit that
Einstein's ideas about gravity are mathematically irreconcilable with quantum mechanics. This fact,
Intelligent Falling proponents say, proves that gravity is a theory in crisis.
"Let's take a look at the evidence," said ECFR senior fellow Gregory Lunsden."In Matthew 15:14,
Jesus says, 'And if the blind lead the blind, both shall fall into the ditch.' He says nothing about
some gravity making them fall-just that they will fall. Then, in Job 5:7, we read, 'But mankind is
born to trouble, as surely as sparks fly upwards.' If gravity is pulling everything down, why do
the sparks fly upwards with great surety? This clearly indicates that a conscious intelligence governs
all falling."
Critics of Intelligent Falling point out that gravity is a provable law based on empirical observations
of natural phenomena. Evangelical physicists, however, insist that there is no conflict between Newton's
mathematics and Holy Scripture.
"Closed-minded gravitists cannot find a way to make Einstein's general relativity match up with
the subatomic quantum world," said Dr. Ellen Carson, a leading Intelligent Falling expert known for
her work with the Kansan Youth Ministry. "They've been trying to do it for the better part of a century
now, and despite all their empirical observation and carefully compiled data, they still don't know
how."
"Traditional scientists admit that they cannot explain how gravitation is supposed to work," Carson
said. "What the gravity-agenda scientists need to realize is that 'gravity waves' and 'gravitons'
are just secular words for 'God can do whatever He wants.'"
Some evangelical physicists propose that Intelligent Falling provides an elegant solution to the
central problem of modern physics.
"Anti-falling physicists have been theorizing for decades about the 'electromagnetic force,' the
'weak nuclear force,' the 'strong nuclear force,' and so-called 'force of gravity,'" Burdett said.
"And they tilt their findings toward trying to unite them into one force. But readers of the Bible
have already known for millennia what this one, unified force is: His name is Jesus."
"... British and Dutch intelligence were apparently discreetly queried regarding possible derogatory intelligence on the Trump campaign's links to Russia and they responded by providing information detailing meetings in Europe. ..."
The campaign to link Trump to Russia also increased in
intensity, including statements by multiple former and
current intelligence agency heads regarding the reality of
the Russian threat and the danger of electing a president who
would ignore that reality. It culminated in ex-CIA Acting
Director Michael Morell's claim that Trump was "an unwitting
agent of the Russian Federation."
British and Dutch intelligence were apparently discreetly
queried regarding possible derogatory intelligence on the
Trump campaign's links to Russia and they responded by
providing information detailing meetings in Europe.
Hundreds of self-described GOP foreign policy "experts"
signed letters stating that they opposed Trump's candidacy
and the mainstream media was unrelentingly hostile.
Leading Republicans refused to endorse Trump and some,
like Senators John McCain, Marco Rubio and Lindsey Graham,
cited his connections to Russia.
"... The left under-appreciates the power of the Fed. Hillary said discussion of the Fed was off limits during election season. It's too important to be debated about by us plebes. ..."
"... Now, following an act of Congress that has forced the Fed to open its books from the bailout era, this unofficial budget is for the first time becoming at least partially a matter of public record. Staffers in the Senate and the House, whose queries about Fed spending have been rebuffed for nearly a century, are now poring over 21,000 transactions and discovering a host of outrages and lunacies in the "other" budget. ..."
"... It is as though someone sat down and made a list of every individual on earth who actually did not need emergency financial assistance from the United States government, and then handed them the keys to the public treasure. The Fed sent billions in bailout aid to banks in places like Mexico, Bahrain and Bavaria, billions more to a spate of Japanese car companies, more than $2 trillion in loans each to Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, and billions more to a string of lesser millionaires and billionaires with Cayman Islands addresses. ..."
"... "Our jaws are literally dropping as we're reading this," says Warren Gunnels, an aide to Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. "Every one of these transactions is outrageous."" ..."
"Where have I heard this belief, that the all-powerful-fed if the source of all evil?"
Straw man much?
"PS: What is your zero hedge handle?"
Zero Hedge is a sad joke.
The left under-appreciates the power of the Fed. Hillary said discussion of the Fed was off
limits during election season. It's too important to be debated about by us plebes.
Bernie Sanders wrote a good New York Times editorial about the Fed.
"The recent decision by the Fed to raise interest rates is the latest example of the rigged
economic system. Big bankers and their supporters in Congress have been telling us for years
that runaway inflation is just around the corner. They have been dead wrong each time. Raising
interest rates now is a disaster for small business owners who need loans to hire more workers
and Americans who need more jobs and higher wages. As a rule, the Fed should not raise interest
rates until unemployment is lower than 4 percent. Raising rates must be done only as a last
resort - not to fight phantom inflation."
"Now, following an act of Congress that has forced the Fed to open its books from the
bailout era, this unofficial budget is for the first time becoming at least partially a matter
of public record. Staffers in the Senate and the House, whose queries about Fed spending have
been rebuffed for nearly a century, are now poring over 21,000 transactions and discovering
a host of outrages and lunacies in the "other" budget.
It is as though someone sat down and made a list of every individual on earth who actually
did not need emergency financial assistance from the United States government, and then handed
them the keys to the public treasure. The Fed sent billions in bailout aid to banks in places
like Mexico, Bahrain and Bavaria, billions more to a spate of Japanese car companies, more
than $2 trillion in loans each to Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, and billions more to a string
of lesser millionaires and billionaires with Cayman Islands addresses.
"Our jaws are literally dropping as we're reading this," says Warren Gunnels, an aide
to Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. "Every one of these transactions is outrageous.""
"How Taxes and Transfers Affect the Work Incentives of People
With Low and Moderate Income"
Last month, Members of Congress asked CBO a number of questions
about how federal taxes and benefits affect people's incentive
to work. This blog post provides additional information on that
topic.
Posted by Shannon Mok...March 17, 2017
"What Marginal Tax Rates Do Low- and Moderate-Income Workers
Face?"
In a 2015 report, CBO found that low- and moderate-income
workers-those with income below 450 percent of federal poverty
guidelines (commonly known as the federal poverty level, or FPL)-would
face, on average, a marginal tax rate of 31 percent in 2016..."
"It can
do so by increasing the federal minimum wage to $10 per hour
and indexing it to inflation. The best existing research
suggests that modest increases such as this have had little
or no employment-reducing impact. And the government should
also increase the Earned Income Tax Credit, a refundable tax
credit for workers, for people who don't have children (a
strategy Brooks endorses)."
Here we go again. First, I thought we had left EITC behind
as any kind of substantial answer to underpaid Americans:
redistributing all of 1/2 of one percent of overall income
when 45% of our workforce is earning less than what we think
the minimum wage should be, $15 an hour.
$15 may be the most fast food can pay. Sometimes in
McDonald's there are more people behind the counter than in
front (most customers come through the drive through). If
fast food (33% labor costs) can pay $15, then maybe Target
(10%-15%) can pay $20, and maybe super efficient WalMart (7%)
can pay $25.
Always keeping in mind that labor bought and sold sort of
on margin. Doubling Walmart's pay could add only 7% to
prices.
Bottom 45% of workforce now takes 10% share of overall
income -- used to be 20%. Top 1% now 20% instead of 10%. How
to get that 10% back -- how to supply the economic and
political muscle to TAKE IT BACK: just put some teeth in the
(federal) law that already says union busting is illegal.
States can do this without any fear of confronting federal
preemption. States can make it a crime for wholesalers for
instance to pressure individual retailers from combining
their bargaining power -- same such law can overlap federal
labor area; especially since fed left blank for 80 years.
Blank or not: may overlap as with min wage.
No need for complicated policy researches; no need to
spend a dime: states just make union busting a felony and let
people organize if they wish to -- and get out of their way.
:-)
Back to min wage. If you sell fewer labor hours for more
dollars that works out better for labor than for potatoes --
because in the labor market the potatoes get the money to
spend -- and they are more likely to spend it more on other
potatoes than more upscale. Why min wage raises often
followed by higher min wage employment. (Higher wage jobs
lost -- everybody looking in wrong place.)
Re: The Man Who Made Us See That Trade Isn't Always Free -
Noah Smith
"Instead, he and his co-authors found that trade
with China in the 2000s left huge swathes of the U.S.
workforce permanently without good jobs -- or, in many cases,
jobs at all.
"This sort of concentrated economic devastation sounds
like it would hurt not just people's pocketbooks, but the
social fabric. In a series of follow-up papers, Autor and his
team link Chinese import competition to declining marriage
rates and political polarization. Autor told me that these
social ills make the need for new thinking about trade policy
even more urgent."
Here we go again. US manufacturing going from 16% of
employment from 2000 to 12% in 2016 (half due automation)
nowhere near as sucking-all-the-oxygen-out-of-life as the the
bottom 45% of earners taking 10% of overall income, down from
20% over two generations -- more and more being recognized
due to the loss of collective bargaining power ...
... for which loss the usual litany of causatives NEVER
seem to include one mention of the complete lack of teeth
protecting union organizing from market power in US labor
law.
Simple answer: no studies or research needed, not a dollar
appropriated: simply make union busting a felony at state
level -- and get out of people's way.
States can do this without conflict with federal
preemption. States can make it a crime for wholesalers for
instance to pressure individual retailers from combining
their bargaining power -- same such law can overlap federal
labor area; especially since fed left blank for 80 years.
Blank or not: may overlap as with min wage.
Don't do this and you'll never bring back collective
bargaining power -- and all the genuine populist politics
that goes with it!
Reporting on cutting-edge advances in economics, this book presents a selection of commentaries
that reveal the weaknesses of several core economics concepts. Economics is a vigorous and progressive
science, which does not lose its force when particular parts of its theory are empirically invalidated;
instead, they contribute to the accumulation of knowledge.
By discussing problematic theoretical assumptions and drawing on the latest empirical research,
the authors question specific hypotheses and reject major economic ideas from the "Coase Theorem"
to "Say's Law" and "Bayesianism." Many of these ideas remain prominent among politicians, economists
and the general public. Yet, in the light of the financial crisis, they have lost both their relevance
and supporting empirical evidence.
This fascinating and thought-provoking collection of 71 short essays written by respected economists
and social scientists from all over the world will appeal to anyone interested in scientific progress
and the further development of economics.
Introduction
Ideas are the drivers behind innovation, may they be political, economic, in the arts or in
science. "Nothing is as powerful as an idea whose time has come" is a popular quote attributed
to Victor Hugo. But what about ideas whose time has already passed? Ideas that might have had
value at a certain point in time but are still sticking around even though we should forget them?
In this book, we collect economic ideas whose time has passed and throw |them into the dustbin
of history. Economics has a sound base of theory supported by empirical research that is taught
the same way all over the world. Yet, according to Popper, we gain scientific progress only by
rejecting specific hypotheses within the theoretical framework. Economics is a vigorous and progressive
science, which does not lose its force when particular parts of its theory are empirically rejected.
Rather, they contribute to the accumulation of knowledge.
We bury ideas from the "Coase Theorem" to "Say's Law" to "Bayesianism". We let established
scientists and lesser known younger colleagues speak. We give voice not only to economists but
also to associates from other social sciences. We let economists from all fields speak and question
ideas. We say goodbye to the positive effects of an abundance of choice; we bid farewell to the
idea that economic growth increases people's well-being. We doubt that CEOs are paid so well merely
because of their talent and question the usefulness of home ownership. Doubting assumptions and
ideas is at the core of economics.
The essays do not idolize models or references and base their content on one single idea that
should be forgotten. They reflect entirely personal views; the book therefore only contains contributions
by single authors. This makes the content parsimonious and distinctive.
"This is how much it costs 'Meals on Wheels' to feed one elderly person for a year"
By Quentin Fottrell, Personal Finance Editor...Mar 16, 2017...1:01 p.m. ET
"Among the services that could be impacted under President Trump's budget proposals: Meals on
Wheels.
The administration's cuts target the Department of Housing and Urban Development and call for
the elimination of the $3 billion Community Development Block Grant, which helps fund programs including
Meals on Wheels services, which deliver food (and human interaction) to elderly, disabled and poor
recipients. "The federal government has spent over $150 billion on this block grant since its inception
in 1974, but the program is not well-targeted to the poorest populations and has not demonstrated
results," the budget proposal states. "The budget devolves community and economic development activities
to the state and local level, and redirects federal resources to other activities."
"Meals on Wheels America," one such national meal delivery program, says the organization can
provide meals for senior citizens for one year for roughly the same cost as just one day in a hospital.
The annual meal cost is $2,765 for 250 days, while the cost of one day in the hospital is around
$2,271, according to the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, a nonprofit, private operating foundation
based in Menlo Park, Calif. For "Meals on Wheels People," a Portland, Ore.-based service and one
of the largest in the country, says it costs us around $2,500 annually to provide daily meals to
a homebound senior, while cost of institutional care for a year in Oregon is around $60,000."...
"Ultra-rich protect wealth with spread
of 'family offices'"
Not really a new idea. The Rockefeller Family and one or two others had these
from early days of American Dynastic Wealth, however, what is new is the number of wealthy and the
amount of wealth they control, not only within a nation but Globally which makes them a new threat
to global prosperity and equality - iow, they won't share theirs willingly and must be forced to
pay up, the Anti-Trump way.
"Ultra-rich protect wealth with spread of 'family offices'"
By Sean Coughlan, Education correspondent...BBC...16 March 2017
"The ultra-rich in London are increasingly protecting their wealth through the use of "family
offices", says research from the London School of Economics.
These are teams of professionals - such as lawyers, financiers and psychologists - employed to
ensure the "dynastic wealth" of the super-rich.
These offices work for families worth at least £200m, says the study.
Researcher Luna Glucksberg says their role "demands scrutiny".
The study, from the LSE's International Inequalities Institute, says more attention should be
paid to the rise of such "shadowy" family offices, which are employed full-time to protect the interests
of their "elite families".
The study describes how they support a "bunkered" and "fortified" way of life of the "global super-rich".
Family offices have grown alongside the concentrations of the ultra-rich in cities such as London
- and researchers say they have moved on a step from buying in specialist advisers.
These are full-time professional staff, which could include investment experts, property advisers,
economists, trust fund advisers and lawyers, who work for a single family, in the way that a corporation
might have its own dedicated staff.
The study quotes a US report from 2010 that found that 50 of the wealthiest such family offices
were looking after $500bn (£407bn).
Rather than getting external advice from bankers and financiers, these family offices will keep
such information private and in-house.
Their role "goes far beyond that of private bankers", says Dr Glucksberg.
"They are about creating dynasties, ensuring generational transfers of wealth," she says.
As well as maximising financial interests and investments, such family offices can look after
every aspect of the private lives of their employers.
This can be everything from buying clothes and organising holidays to arranging divorces and making
financial arrangements to prevent money being lost to in-laws.
The study says that for an individual family to have a family office, they would need to be worth
at least £200m and probably much more.
But there are cases of "multi-family offices" - where families worth from £80m upwards could share
such services.
The growth of extreme wealth, alongside poverty and low-income families, means that there needs
to be more analysis of how such wealth is perpetuated, the study suggests.
These family offices "play a crucial role" in how advantages are handed on between generations,
with full-time staff able to make long-term, strategic planning, says the study.
"The rise of elite dynasties, economic inequality, and the vast concentrations of global wealth
in recent times means that the role of the 'family office' in our society demands scrutiny," says
Dr Glucksberg."
"Certainly there are some people in the Democratic Party
who want to maintain the status quo. They would rather go
down with the Titanic so long as they have first-class
seats." Bernie Sanders to NY Times Magazine's Charlie Homans
The New Party of No
How a president and a protest movement transformed the
Democrats.
By CHARLES HOMANS
I asked [Bernie Sanders] if he thought the Democratic
Party knew what it stood for. "You're asking a good question,
and I can't give you a definitive answer," he said.
"Certainly there are some people in the Democratic Party who
want to maintain the status quo. They would rather go down
with the Titanic so long as they have first-class seats." ...
Everyone loves Bernie Sanders. Except, it seems, the
Democratic party
A new poll found he is the most popular politician in
America. But instead of embracing his message, establishment
Democrats continue to resist him
By Trevor Timm - Guardian
If you look at the numbers, Bernie Sanders is the most
popular politician in America – and it's not even close. Yet
bizarrely, the Democratic party – out of power across the
country and increasingly irrelevant – still refuses to
embrace him and his message. It's increasingly clear they do
so at their own peril.
A new Fox News poll out this week shows Sanders has a +28
net favorability rating among the US population, dwarfing all
other elected politicians on both ends of the political
spectrum. And he's even more popular among the vaunted
"independents", where he is at a mind boggling +41.
This poll is not just an aberration. Look at this
Huffington Post chart that has tracked Sanders' favorability
rating over time, ever since he gained national prominence in
2015 when he started running for the Democratic nomination.
The more people got to know him, they more they liked him –
the exact opposite of what his critics said would happen when
he was running against Clinton.
One would think with numbers like that, Democratic
politicians would be falling all over themselves to be
associated with Sanders, especially considering the party as
a whole is more unpopular than the Republicans and even
Donald Trump right now. Yet instead of embracing his message,
the establishment wing of the party continues to resist him
at almost every turn, and they seem insistent that they don't
have to change their ways to gain back the support of huge
swaths of the country.
Politico ran a story just this week featuring Democratic
officials fretting over the fact that Sanders supporters may
upend their efforts to retake governorships in southern
states by insisting those candidates adopt Sanders' populist
policies – seemingly oblivious to the fact that Sanders plays
well in some of those states too.
Sanders' effect on Trump voters can be seen in a gripping
town hall this week that MSNBC's Chris Hayes hosted with him
in West Virginia – often referred to as "Trump country" –
where the crowd ended up giving him a rousing ovation after
he talked about healthcare being a right of all people and
that we are the only industrialized nation in the world who
doesn't provide healthcare as a right to all its people.
But hand wringing by Democratic officials over 2018
candidates is really just the latest example: the
establishment wing of the party aggressively ran another
opponent against Keith Ellison, Sanders' choice to run the
Democratic National Committee, seemingly with the primary
motivation to keep the party away from Sanders' influence.
They've steadfastly refused to take giant corporations
head on in the public sphere and wouldn't even return to an
Obama-era rule that banned lobbyist money from funding the
DNC that was rescinded last year. And despite the broad
popularity of the government guaranteeing health care for
everyone, they still have not made any push for a
Medicare-for-all plan that Sanders has long called for as a
rebuttal to Republicans' attempt to dismantle Obamacare.
Democrats seem more than happy to put all the blame of the
2016 election on a combination of Russia and James Comey and
have engaged in almost zero introspection on the root causes
of the larger reality: they are also out of power in not the
presidency, but both also houses of Congress, governorships
and state houses across the country as well.
As Politico reported on the Democrats' post-Trump strategy
in February, "Democratic aides say they will eventually shift
to a positive economic message that Rust Belt Democrats can
run on". However: "For now, aides say, the focus is on
slaying the giant and proving to the voters who sent Trump
into the White House why his policies will fail."
In other words, they're doubling down on the exact same
failing strategy that Clinton used in the final months of the
campaign. Sanders himself put it this wayin his usual blunt
style in an interview with New York magazine this week – when
asked about whether the Democrats can adapt to the political
reality, he said: "There are some people in the Democratic
Party who want to maintain the status quo. They would rather
go down with the Titanic so long as they have first-class
seats." ...
Krugman and Vox have been attacking Sanders regularly on
behalf of the establishment Democrats.
I thought it was
interesting that PGL and Sanjait said they don't agree with
Krugman's latest blog post, but they refuse to discuss
exactly why Krugman is wrong.
"This ties in with an important recent piece by Zack
Beauchamp on the striking degree to which left-wing economics
fails, in practice, to counter right-wing populism;
basically, Sandersism has failed everywhere it has been
tried. Why?
The answer, presumably, is that what we call populism is
really in large degree white identity politics, which can't
be addressed by promising universal benefits. Among other
things, these "populist" voters now live in a media bubble,
getting their news from sources that play to their
identity-politics desires, which means that even if you offer
them a better deal, they won't hear about it or believe it if
told. For sure many if not most of those who gained health
coverage thanks to Obamacare have no idea that's what
happened.
That said, taking the benefits away would probably get
their attention, and maybe even open their eyes to the extent
to which they are suffering to provide tax cuts to the rich.
In Europe, right-wing parties probably don't face the same
dilemma; they're preaching herrenvolk social democracy, a
welfare state but only for people who look like you. In
America, however, Trump_vs_deep_state is faux populism that appeals to
white identity but actually serves plutocrats. That
fundamental contradiction is now out in the open."
Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern
Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer
By Dean Baker
The Old Technology and Inequality Scam: The Story of
Patents and Copyrights
One of the amazing lines often repeated by people in
policy debates is that, as a result of technology, we are
seeing income redistributed from people who work for a living
to the people who own the technology. While the
redistribution part of the story may be mostly true, the
problem is that the technology does not determine who "owns"
the technology. The people who write the laws determine who
owns the technology.
Specifically, patents and copyrights give their holders
monopolies on technology or creative work for their duration.
If we are concerned that money is going from ordinary workers
to people who hold patents and copyrights, then one policy we
may want to consider is shortening and weakening these
monopolies. But policy has gone sharply in the opposite
direction over the last four decades, as a wide variety of
measures have been put into law that make these protections
longer and stronger. Thus, the redistribution from people who
work to people who own the technology should not be
surprising - that was the purpose of the policy.
If stronger rules on patents and copyrights produced
economic dividends in the form of more innovation and more
creative output, then this upward redistribution might be
justified. But the evidence doesn't indicate there has been
any noticeable growth dividend associated with this upward
redistribution. In fact, stronger patent protection seems to
be associated with slower growth.
Before directly considering the case, it is worth thinking
for a minute about what the world might look like if we had
alternative mechanisms to patents and copyrights, so that the
items now subject to these monopolies could be sold in a free
market just like paper cups and shovels.
The biggest impact would be in prescription drugs. The
breakthrough drugs for cancer, hepatitis C, and other
diseases, which now sell for tens or hundreds of thousands of
dollars annually, would instead sell for a few hundred
dollars. No one would have to struggle to get their insurer
to pay for drugs or scrape together the money from friends
and family. Almost every drug would be well within an
affordable price range for a middle-class family, and
covering the cost for poorer families could be easily managed
by governments and aid agencies.
The same would be the case with various medical tests and
treatments. Doctors would not have to struggle with a
decision about whether to prescribe an expensive scan, which
might be the best way to detect a cancerous growth or other
health issue, or to rely on cheaper but less reliable
technology. In the absence of patent protection even the most
cutting edge scans would be reasonably priced.
Health care is not the only area that would be transformed
by a free market in technology and creative work. Imagine
that all the textbooks needed by college students could be
downloaded at no cost over the web and printed out for the
price of the paper. Suppose that a vast amount of new books,
recorded music, and movies was freely available on the web.
People or companies who create and innovate deserve to be
compensated, but there is little reason to believe that the
current system of patent and copyright monopolies is the best
way to support their work. It's not surprising that the
people who benefit from the current system are reluctant to
have the efficiency of patents and copyrights become a topic
for public debate, but those who are serious about inequality
have no choice. These forms of property claims have been
important drivers of inequality in the last four decades.
The explicit assumption behind the steps over the last
four decades to increase the strength and duration of patent
and copyright protection is that the higher prices resulting
from increased protection will be more than offset by an
increased incentive for innovation and creative work. Patent
and copyright protection should be understood as being like
very large tariffs. These protections can often the raise the
price of protected items by several multiples of the free
market price, making them comparable to tariffs of several
hundred or even several thousand percent. The resulting
economic distortions are comparable to what they would be if
we imposed tariffs of this magnitude.
The justification for granting these monopoly protections
is that the increased innovation and creative work that is
produced as a result of these incentives exceeds the economic
costs from patent and copyright monopolies. However, there is
remarkably little evidence to support this assumption. While
the cost of patent and copyright protection in higher prices
is apparent, even if not well-measured, there is little
evidence of a substantial payoff in the form of a more rapid
pace of innovation or more and better creative work....
The Fed has worked out perfectly for the private banks. They
can be private when they make a profit and they can be
bailed-out when they take a loss.
And in the meantime they
can decide which of their buddies get sweetheart loans and
send them a kick-back. And they can decide the future of the
US economy according to what works best for them - screw the
90%.
Government Granted Patent Monopolies Cause People to Skip Cancer Treatments
National Public Radio had an interesting segment * on the difficulties that many families have
paying for cancer treatments. The piece points out that even middle income families with good
insurance may still face co-payments of tens of thousands of dollars a year.
One item not mentioned in this piece is that the reason the prices of new cancer drugs is high
is that the government grants companies patent monopolies. This is done as a way to finance research.
In almost all cases these drugs would be available for less than a thousand dollars ** for a year's
treatment if the drugs were sold in a free market.
While it is necessary to pay for research, there are more modern and efficient mechanisms than
patent monopolies (see "Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured
to Make the Rich Richer" *** ).
Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich
Richer
By Dean Baker
The Old Technology and Inequality Scam: The Story of Patents and Copyrights
One of the amazing lines often repeated by people in policy debates is that, as a result of
technology, we are seeing income redistributed from people who work for a living to the people
who own the technology. While the redistribution part of the story may be mostly true, the problem
is that the technology does not determine who "owns" the technology. The people who write the
laws determine who owns the technology.
Specifically, patents and copyrights give their holders monopolies on technology or creative
work for their duration. If we are concerned that money is going from ordinary workers to people
who hold patents and copyrights, then one policy we may want to consider is shortening and weakening
these monopolies. But policy has gone sharply in the opposite direction over the last four decades,
as a wide variety of measures have been put into law that make these protections longer and stronger.
Thus, the redistribution from people who work to people who own the technology should not be surprising
- that was the purpose of the policy.
If stronger rules on patents and copyrights produced economic dividends in the form of more
innovation and more creative output, then this upward redistribution might be justified. But the
evidence doesn't indicate there has been any noticeable growth dividend associated with this upward
redistribution. In fact, stronger patent protection seems to be associated with slower growth.
Before directly considering the case, it is worth thinking for a minute about what the world
might look like if we had alternative mechanisms to patents and copyrights, so that the items
now subject to these monopolies could be sold in a free market just like paper cups and shovels.
The biggest impact would be in prescription drugs. The breakthrough drugs for cancer, hepatitis
C, and other diseases, which now sell for tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars annually, would
instead sell for a few hundred dollars. No one would have to struggle to get their insurer to
pay for drugs or scrape together the money from friends and family. Almost every drug would be
well within an affordable price range for a middle-class family, and covering the cost for poorer
families could be easily managed by governments and aid agencies.
The same would be the case with various medical tests and treatments. Doctors would not have
to struggle with a decision about whether to prescribe an expensive scan, which might be the best
way to detect a cancerous growth or other health issue, or to rely on cheaper but less reliable
technology. In the absence of patent protection even the most cutting edge scans would be reasonably
priced.
Health care is not the only area that would be transformed by a free market in technology and
creative work. Imagine that all the textbooks needed by college students could be downloaded at
no cost over the web and printed out for the price of the paper. Suppose that a vast amount of
new books, recorded music, and movies was freely available on the web.
People or companies who create and innovate deserve to be compensated, but there is little
reason to believe that the current system of patent and copyright monopolies is the best way to
support their work. It's not surprising that the people who benefit from the current system are
reluctant to have the efficiency of patents and copyrights become a topic for public debate, but
those who are serious about inequality have no choice. These forms of property claims have been
important drivers of inequality in the last four decades.
The explicit assumption behind the steps over the last four decades to increase the strength
and duration of patent and copyright protection is that the higher prices resulting from increased
protection will be more than offset by an increased incentive for innovation and creative work.
Patent and copyright protection should be understood as being like very large tariffs. These protections
can often the raise the price of protected items by several multiples of the free market price,
making them comparable to tariffs of several hundred or even several thousand percent. The resulting
economic distortions are comparable to what they would be if we imposed tariffs of this magnitude.
The justification for granting these monopoly protections is that the increased innovation
and creative work that is produced as a result of these incentives exceeds the economic costs
from patent and copyright monopolies. However, there is remarkably little evidence to support
this assumption. While the cost of patent and copyright protection in higher prices is apparent,
even if not well-measured, there is little evidence of a substantial payoff in the form of a more
rapid pace of innovation or more and better creative work....
Tom aka Rusty said in reply to anne... , -1
I'm trying to imagine why anyone would write a 900 page textbook, plus add-ons (test bank, solutions
manual) and then give it away.
I have refused to co-author several times because the work is agonizing, the revisions never
ending, and only a few texts make anyone rich.
"... Tax cuts kill jobs. Plain and simple. You can't create jobs by cutting the amount you paid workers. Taxes are prices that workers .pay You dodge taxes by underpaying workers. If taxes are cut, both paying workers is cut AND paying workers to dodge taxes is cut. ..."
Forecasting is done to change human behavior to invalidate
the forecasts.
Thus forecasts are by design never accurate
about the future.
This is different than designing systems using natural
laws.
A plane is designed to fly, because every forecast for it
crashing has resulted in design changes to invalidate that
forecast.
Conservatives hate forecasts because they hate changing
their plans. To forecast slower gdp growth and job creation,
or even contraction from tax cuts and spending cuts is
unacceptable. Thus they strive to change forecasts or
discredit them to get their policy implemented.
My forecast in the late 90s and early 00s was for economic
disaster as a result of conservative policy eventually being
implemented.
Tax cuts kill jobs. Plain and simple. You can't create
jobs by cutting the amount you paid workers. Taxes are prices
that workers .pay You dodge taxes by underpaying workers. If taxes
are cut, both paying workers is cut AND paying workers to
dodge taxes is cut.
That would have been the forecast in the 60s.
Today even Krugman and Bernie support job killing tax cuts
based on that creating jobs. Lots of bad forecasting is done
to back tax cuts. The tax cuts fail to create jobs, so the
bad forecasts are blamed so every forecast is ignored, even
the good ones.
When Congressional critters learned to read,
45th POTUS was suddenly and permanently unable to drain the
swamp of critters who grow fat on the pork-barrel-legislation
that drains the public treasure of We the Workers and Savers.
These parasitic critters will grow fat and strong, strong
enough to gobble up the the once brave workers who feed the
fat in DC.
Median household income in the USA in 2015 was $ 53,889. Census money
income
is defined as
income
received on a regular basis before
payments for taxes, social security, etc. and does not reflect noncash
benefits....
Consider: In 1971, the U.S. middle class - with household incomes
ranging from two-thirds to double the national median - accounted for
almost 60 percent of total U.S. earnings. But in 2014, middle-class
households earned just about 40 percent of the total national income.
And, adjusted for inflation, the incomes of goods-producing workers
have been flat since the mid-1970s.
"We have a fractured society," says MIT economist Peter Temin. "The
middle class is vanishing."
Now Temin, the Elisha Gray II Professor Emeritus of Economics in MIT's
Department of Economics, has written a book exploring the topic. "The
Vanishing Middle Class: Prejudice and Power in a Dual Economy,"
published this month by MIT Press, examines the plight of
middle-income earners and offers some prescriptions for changing our
current state of affairs.
The "dual economy" in the book's title also represents a bracing
reflection of America's class schism. Temin, a leading economic
historian, draws the term from the work of Nobel Prize winner W.
Arthur Lewis, who in the 1950s applied the model of a dual economy to
developing countries. In many of those nations, Lewis contended, there
was not a single economy but a two-track economy, with one part
containing upwardly-mobile, skilled workers and the other part
inhabited by subsistence workers.
Applied to the U.S. today, "The Lewis model actually works," Temin
says. "The economy can grow, but it detaches from the [subsistence]
sector. Simple as it is, the Lewis model offers the benefit that a
good economic model does, which is to clarify your thinking."
In Temin's terms, updated, America now features what he calls the "FTE
sector" - people who work in finance, technology, and electronics -
and "the low-wage sector." Workers in the first sector tend to thrive;
workers in the second sector usually struggle. Much of the book delves
into how the U.S. has developed this way over the last 40 years, and
how it might transform itself back into a country with one economy for
all.
Headwinds for workers
As Temin sees it, there are multiple reasons for the decline in
middle-class earning power. To cite one: The decline of unionization,
he contends, has reduced the bargaining power available to middle
class workers.
"In the [political and economic] turmoil of the '70s and '80s, the
unions declined, and the institutions that had been keeping labor
going along with rising productivity were destroyed," Temin says.
"It's partly [due to] new technology, globalization, and public policy
- it's all of these things. What it did was disconnect wages from the
growth in productivity."
Indeed, from about 1945 until 1975, as Temin documents in the book,
U.S. productivity gains and the wage gains of goods-producing workers
tracked each other closely. But since 1975, productivity has roughly
doubled, while those wages have stayed flat.
Where "The Vanishing Middle Class" moves well beyond a discussion of
basic economic relations, however, is in Temin's insistence that
readers consider the interaction of racial politics and economics. As
he puts it in the book, "Race plays an important part in discussions
of politics related to inequality in the United States."
To take one example: Again starting in the 1970s, incarceration
policies led to an increasing proportion of African-Americans being
jailed. Today, Temin notes, about one in three African-American men
will serve jail time, which he calls "a very striking figure. You can
see how that would just destroy the fabric of a community." After all,
those who become imprisoned see a significant reduction in their
ability to obtain healthy incomes over their lifetimes.
For that matter, Temin observes, incarceration has expanded so
dramatically it has affected the ability of society to pay for
prisons, which may be a factor that limits their further growth. At
the moment, he notes in the book, the U.S. states pay roughly $50
billion a year for prisons and roughly $75 billion annually to support
higher education.
Solutions?
Temin contends in the book that a renewed focus on education is a
principal way to distribute opportunities better throughout society.
"The link between the two parts of the modern dual economy is
education, which provides a possible path that children of low-wage
workers can take to move into the FTE sector," Temin writes.
That begins with early-childhood education, which Temin calls
"critically important" - although, he says, "in order to continue
those benefits, [students] have to build on that foundation. That goes
all the way up to college."
And for students in challenging social and economic circumstances,
Temin adds, what matters is not just the simple acquisition of
knowledge but the classroom experiences that lead to, as he puts it,
"Knowing how to think, how to get on with people, how to cooperate.
All the social skills and social capital [are] going to be
critically important for kids in this environment."
In the book Temin bluntly advocates for greater investment in public
schools as well as public universities, saying that America's
"educational system was the wonder of the 20th century." It still
works very well, he notes, for kids at good public schools and for
those college students who graduate without burdensome debt.
But for others, he notes, "We don't have a path for the next
generation to have what we expect for a middle-class life [and] not
everyone wants to finance it."
"The Vanishing Middle Class" comes amid increasing scrutiny of class
relations in the U.S., but at a time when the public discussion of the
topic is still very much evolving. Gerald Jaynes, a professor in the
departments of Economics and African American Studies at Yale
University, calls Temin's new book "a significant addition to the
existing literature on inequality."
Temin, for his part, hopes that by the end of "The Vanishing Middle
Class," readers will agree that a society paying for more education
will have made a worthy investment.
"The people in this country are the resource we have," Temin says. "If
we maintain the character of our fellow citizens, that is really our
national strength."
The [neoliberal] Democrats like Sanjait and PGL deliver a
two-track economy and wonder why voter turn-out is low and
the white working class are susceptible to demagogues like
Trump.
Why did Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio
go for a laughable reality TV star like Trump.
They expend a lot of energy trying to explain away the
obvious like globalization and attacking heretics like Bernie
Sanders.
EMichael says it all about race but ignores the obvious.
"Indeed, from about 1945 until 1975, as Temin documents in
the book, U.S. productivity gains and the wage gains of
goods-producing workers tracked each other closely. But since
1975, productivity has roughly doubled, while those wages
have stayed flat."
Interesting that neoliberalism really took off around the
1980s, with Clinton moving the Democrats to the right and
endorsing corporate globalization.
The unions got their power during the New Deal. They were
under serious attack in the 1970s with its inflation and its
oil shocks. When the government started insisting that blacks
get some of the New Deal goodies, conservative whites balked.
When push came to shove, they voted for Reagan who promptly
killed the unions. It was a suicide deal. If whites had to
share prosperity with blacks, then not being prosperous was
better. That attitude is around today.
Neoliberalism was
part of it. The Democrats did move to the right. People
forget that it was Carter who deregulated the airlines, not
Reagan. It was Carter who bought the nonsense about balancing
the budget. Hell, it was Carter who started getting tough
with the USSR after Nixon's detente.
The dual economy, they say, as if it were an abstract.
My
Dad was shot in the face in Germany. The Unions were
established by the people who established our society.
The sentiments being expressed here by the people whose
existence would not even be possible without the efforts of
my Dad, and men like him, are breathtaking.
The current "thinking" and bloviation of main stream
Economics, seems to be, that they're wishful thinking,
contradicts the accepted, published foundations.
Barrack O'Bama may have been the worst President of all time.
Except for George Bush, Bill Clinton, the other Bush, and our
favorite life-guard, Ronald Reagan.
The United States of America.
MANKIND being originally equals in the order of creation, the
equality could only be destroyed by some subsequent
circumstance: the distinctions of rich and poor may in a
great measure be accounted for, and that without having
recourse to the harsh ill-sounding names of oppression and
avarice. Oppression is often the CONSEQUENCE, but seldom or
never the MEANS of riches; and tho' avarice will preserve a
man from being necessitously poor, it generally makes him too
timorous to be wealthy.
But there is another and great
distinction for which no truly natural or religious reason
can be assigned, and that is the distinction of men into
KINGS and SUBJECTS. Male and female are the distinctions of
nature, good and bad the distinctions of Heaven; but how a
race of men came into the world so exalted above the rest,
and distinguished like some new species, is worth inquiring
into, and whether they are the means of happiness or of
misery to mankind.
In the early ages of the world, according to the scripture
chronology there were no kings; the consequence of which was,
there were no wars; it is the pride of kings which throws
mankind into confusion. Holland, without a king hath enjoyed
more peace for this last century than any of the monarchical
governments in Europe. Antiquity favours the same remark; for
the quiet and rural lives of the first Patriarchs have a
snappy something in them, which vanishes when we come to the
history of Jewish royalty.
Government by kings was first introduced into the world by
the Heathens, from whom the children of Israel copied the
custom. It was the most prosperous invention the Devil ever
set on foot for the promotion of idolatry. The Heathens paid
divine honours to their deceased kings, and the Christian
World hath improved on the plan by doing the same to their
living ones. How impious is the title of sacred Majesty
applied to a worm, who in the midst of his splendor is
crumbling into dust!
As the exalting one man so greatly above the rest cannot
be justified on the equal rights of nature, so neither can it
be defended on the authority of scripture; for the will of
the Almighty as declared by Gideon, and the prophet Samuel,
expressly disapproves of government by Kings.
All anti-monarchical parts of scripture have been very
smoothly glossed over in monarchical governments, but they
undoubtedly merit the attention of countries which have their
governments yet to form. "Render unto Cesar the things which
are Cesar's" is the scripture doctrine of courts, yet it is
no support of monarchical government, for the Jews at that
time were without a king, and in a state of vassalage to the
Romans.
It's funny how Sanjait and PGL don't want to talk about what
Krugman wrote in his latest blog post:
"This ties in with
an important recent piece by Zack Beauchamp on the striking
degree to which left-wing economics fails, in practice, to
counter right-wing populism; basically, Sandersism has failed
everywhere it has been tried. Why?
The answer, presumably, is that what we call populism is
really in large degree white identity politics, which can't
be addressed by promising universal benefits. Among other
things, these "populist" voters now live in a media bubble,
getting their news from sources that play to their
identity-politics desires, which means that even if you offer
them a better deal, they won't hear about it or believe it if
told. For sure many if not most of those who gained health
coverage thanks to Obamacare have no idea that's what
happened.
That said, taking the benefits away would probably get
their attention, and maybe even open their eyes to the extent
to which they are suffering to provide tax cuts to the rich.
In Europe, right-wing parties probably don't face the same
dilemma; they're preaching herrenvolk social democracy, a
welfare state but only for people who look like you. In
America, however, Trumpism is faux populism that appeals to
white identity but actually serves plutocrats. That
fundamental contradiction is now out in the open."
He is now 79 years old. He has written some brilliant
analyzes over his incredible career. His latest is something
I must read as this discussion is so spot on regarding the
current debate.
"Certainly there are some people in the Democratic Party who
want to maintain the status quo. They would rather go down
with the Titanic so long as they have first-class seats."
"... It would be Pharaohanic. Trump would leave his mark on America's landscape in a visible way--something that is, for somebody who has for two decades been playing the game of celebrity, a big win. ..."
"... The second was driven by the fact that there are an awful lot of small-government fanatics and some fiscal conservatives in the Trump coalition. That way would have generated a politics in which the normal fiscal infrastructure stimulus that both the situation and Trump's background seemed to call for would not happen. It would simply not be done. ..."
"... Instead, the Trump infrastructure plan would wind up building infrastructure on the government's dime. That infrastructure which would then have been given away to friends of the administration. They would then have charged monopoly prices for access to it. ..."
"... Little good as infrastructure -- monopolists charging monopoly prices are rarely public benefactors on any large scale. No good as stimulus. Think of Silvio Berlusconi, but not on an Italian but on a North American scale. ..."
"... And then, of course, there would be the Trump tax cut: another nail in the coffin of sane and prudent fiscal policy, and another brick in the wall of the Second Gilded Age. ..."
"... White House propaganda aides following their own propaganda agendas, and a Congress that seems to lack any sort of positive leadership. Not constructive infrastructure policy. Not bunga-bunga infrastructure policy. Simply no policy at all. ..."
What Happened to Trump Infrastructure Push?: Bunga-Bunga
Policy, or No Policy at All
There seemed, back in November, two ways the Trump
infrastructure fiscal expansion could have gone.
The first was driven by the facts that Trump seemed to
have ambitions that were "Pharaohanic", and that Trump had
been a real estate developer.
There were then no Trump plans for the infrastructure
program. There were, however, plans to have plans. And the
plans to have plans were aided by the fact that building
things was what you would expect someone who had been a real
estate developer to focus on. Since there were no plans,
there was an opportunity to develop for Donald Trump a real,
technocratic infrastructure plan. It would have had, from
Trump's perspective, three advantages:
It would actually work--it would boost American economic
growth, and so make people happy.
It would be Pharaohanic. Trump would leave his mark on
America's landscape in a visible way--something that is, for
somebody who has for two decades been playing the game of
celebrity, a big win.
It would make Trump's presidency both be and appear to be
a success, from the desired perspective of helping to make
America even greater than ever.
And the idea that the economy was already at full
employment, and did not need additional stimulus of any kind?
That extra stimulus would be offset by the Federal Reserve,
and that the overall effect on employment would be very
small? That, taking into account the Federal Reserve
reaction, the only major effect would be to raise interest
rates? Perhaps. But that would not have been a downside. If
you do seek--as we do--to normalize interest rates in the
medium term, and if you want to see whether there are
discouraged workers out there, moving away from monetary to
fiscal as the stimulative balancing item is exactly the right
thing to do. An extra $300 billion/year of bond funded
infrastructure would substantially normalize interest rates.
The second was driven by the fact that there are an awful
lot of small-government fanatics and some fiscal
conservatives in the Trump coalition. That way would have
generated a politics in which the normal fiscal
infrastructure stimulus that both the situation and Trump's
background seemed to call for would not happen. It would
simply not be done.
Instead, the Trump infrastructure plan would wind up
building infrastructure on the government's dime. That
infrastructure which would then have been given away to
friends of the administration. They would then have charged
monopoly prices for access to it.
Little good as infrastructure -- monopolists charging
monopoly prices are rarely public benefactors on any large
scale. No good as stimulus. Think of Silvio Berlusconi, but
not on an Italian but on a North American scale.
Another pointless episode of bunga-bunga policy.
The U.S. would have been likely to lose, substantially, if
that was what the Trump fiscal expansion had turned out to
be. And then, of course, there would be the Trump tax cut:
another nail in the coffin of sane and prudent fiscal policy,
and another brick in the wall of the Second Gilded Age.
We may still have this bunga-bunga policy.
But with each day that passes with not even a plan to plan
to have a plan, it looks more as though there is no Trump
administration--just the reality TV simulacrum of one,
cabinet members following their own administrative agendas,
White House propaganda aides following their own propaganda
agendas, and a Congress that seems to lack any sort of
positive leadership. Not constructive infrastructure policy.
Not bunga-bunga infrastructure policy. Simply no policy at
all.
Constructive infrastructure policy now looks completely
off the table.
Destructive bunga-bung infrastructure policy is still a
possibility, but a low probability one.
No infrastructure policy now looks like the way to bet at
even odds...
"... Motivated empiricism, which is what he is describing, is just as misleading as ungrounded theorizing unsupported by empirical
data. Indeed, even in the sciences with well established, strong testing protocols are suffering from a replication crisis. ..."
"... I liked the Dorman piece at Econospeak as well. He writes well and explains things well in a manner that makes it easy for
non-experts to understand. ..."
Motivated empiricism, which is what he is describing, is just as misleading as ungrounded theorizing unsupported by empirical
data. Indeed, even in the sciences with well established, strong testing protocols are suffering from a replication crisis.
While I strongly
disagree with the
proposed cuts in
domestic spending and
I would not want to
see more defense
spending, let's put
this in context:
"The $54 billion boost
for the military is
the largest since
President Ronald
Reagan's Pentagon
buildup in the 1980s"
In 2016, defense
spending had declined
to 3.9% of GDP. If all
of this passed -
defense spending would
be 4.2% of GDP. Under
Reagan, this ratio was
closer to 7%.
Hey I'm fine with
keeping defense
spending low but this
quote is a bit of
hyperbole.
I know, I know
military spending of
$732.2 billion in 2016
was not really that
high when we stand
upside down and look
in a mirror. Let's
have more, after all
there is the war we
are fighting while not
fighting in Yemen to
consider. Yemen?
"I know, I know military spending of $732.2 billion in 2016
was not really that high when we stand upside down and look
in a mirror. Let's have more, after all there is the war we
are fighting while not fighting in Yemen to consider."
In
constant dollars, "defense spending" is as large as during
the Vietnam war.
The spending was 94.261 billion in 1968 which is according
to measuring worth, "In 2015, the relative value of
$94,261.00 from 1968 ranges from $503,000.00 to
$1,800,000.00."
But war is primarily labor engaged in destroying capital
and killing workers and consumers. Bombs and bullets cost the
labor to manufacture them, as everything is consumption by
the end of wars.
Thus the best measure is "labor earnings of that commodity
is $659,000.00 (using the unskilled wage) or $818,000.00
(using production worker compensation)"
The nominal cost in 2015 from the same source, us
governmentspending.com, is 797.878 billion.
But the number of soldiers in the military, in and out of
combat, is about 3.5 million in 1968 vs 1.4 million today.
The military until Nixon was a major job training system.
The military did virtually everything with soldiers, and
soldiers served an average of 3 years, so in three years, a
soldier, did a few "normal" jobs, while at the same time
being ready to "fight", and serving active soldiers with some
appreciation of why their work mattered to soldiers.
Today, the military no longer provides much in the way of
job training and worker development. It is far less efficient
and productive, and that is the result of bad policy by both
conservatives and progressives.
Progressives are especially bad because they want job
killing defense cuts to pay the poor to not work and stay in
economic dead zones. After all, what progressive has called
for creating a government job Corp of, in population adjusted
terms, at least 3 million workers, drafted into the job Corp,
paid low wages because they are given room and board, and
working for 2-3 years in whatever backwater government sends
you, doing whatever crap job tells you to do?
While we are having fun with nominal figures over time,
defense spending was only $181 billion in 1980 but grew to
$412 billion by 1991. It was $392 billion in 2000 (the last
year of the peace dividend) and grew to $837 billion by 2011
(when we finally pulled out of Iraq). Of course all this
needs to be adjusted for inflation etc.
It goes almost without saying
that our country is extremely
nutty about defense spending.
That is 'ok' (i.e.
'accepted')
because National Security is a
role ceded to the federal guv'mint
by the states, and has a military
focus. The 'general welfare' aspects
of National Security are much less
appreciated/accepted/understood by
the population at large, it would seem.
Israeli Practices towards the Palestinian People and the Question of Apartheid: Palestine and
the Israeli Occupation
By United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia
This report examines, based on key instruments of international law, whether Israel has established
an apartheid regime that oppresses and dominates the Palestinian people as a whole. Having established
that the crime of apartheid has universal application, that the question of the status of the
Palestinians as a people is settled in law, and that the crime of apartheid should be considered
at the level of the State, the report sets out to demonstrate how Israel has imposed such a system
on the Palestinians in order to maintain the domination of one racial group over others.
A history of war, annexation and expulsions, as well as a series of practices, has left the
Palestinian people fragmented into four distinct population groups, three of them (citizens of
Israel, residents of East Jerusalem and the populace under occupation in the West Bank and Gaza)
living under direct Israeli rule and the remainder, refugees and involuntary exiles, living beyond.
This fragmentation, coupled with the application of discrete bodies of law to those groups, lie
at the heart of the apartheid regime. They serve to enfeeble opposition to it and to veil its
very existence. This report concludes, on the basis of overwhelming evidence, that Israel is guilty
of the crime of apartheid, and urges swift action to oppose and end it. *
Oh, the irony. The usual set of posts on how great China is, followed by an attack on Israelis
for apartheid(justified I think). Meanwhile, in Tibet..............
"The usual set of posts on how great China is, followed by an attack on Israelis for apartheid(justified
I think)."
The difference is that we give billions in military aid to Israel and are mucking about the
Middle East on their behalf, to keep the peace ostensibly and to keep the oil flowing. But I agree
Tibet is a crime and John Oliver gave a good deep dive on it recently. The abuse of civil liberties
in occupied Tibet is ranked worse than in North Korea.
One can be objective about America's rivals just as one can be objective about America's allies.
You don't have to spin against our enemies and for our allies, just as it's folly to spin for
Democrats and for Republicans.
Israeli Practices towards the Palestinian People and the Question of Apartheid: Palestine and
the Israeli Occupation
By United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia
Executive Summary
This report concludes that Israel has established an apartheid regime that dominates the Palestinian
people as a whole. Aware of the seriousness of this allegation, the authors of the report conclude
that available evidence establishes beyond a reasonable doubt that Israel is guilty of policies
and practices that constitute the crime of apartheid as legally defined in instruments of international
law.
The analysis in this report rests on the same body of international human rights law and principles
that reject anti-Semitism and other racially discriminatory ideologies, including: the Charter
of the United Nations (1945), the Universal Declaration of Human Rights (1948), and the International
Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (1965). The report relies
for its definition of apartheid primarily on article II of the International Convention on the
Suppression and Punishment of the Crime of Apartheid (1973, hereinafter the Apartheid Convention):
The term "the crime of apartheid", which shall include similar policies and practices of racial
segregation and discrimination as practiced in southern Africa, shall apply to inhuman acts committed
for the purpose of establishing and maintaining domination by one racial group of persons over
any other racial group of persons and systematically oppressing them.
Although the term "apartheid" was originally associated with the specific instance of South
Africa, it now represents a species of crime against humanity under customary international law
and the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court, according to which:
"The crime of apartheid" means inhumane acts committed in the context of an institutionalized
regime of systematic oppression and domination by one racial group over any other racial group
or groups and committed with the intention of maintaining that regime.
Against that background, this report reflects the expert consensus that the prohibition of
apartheid is universally applicable and was not rendered moot by the collapse of apartheid in
South Africa and South West Africa (Namibia).
The legal approach to the matter of apartheid adopted by this report should not be confused
with usage of the term in popular discourse as an expression of opprobrium. Seeing apartheid as
discrete acts and practices (such as the "apartheid wall"), a phenomenon generated by anonymous
structural conditions like capitalism ("economic apartheid"), or private social behaviour on the
part of certain racial groups towards others (social racism) may have its place in certain contexts.
However, this report anchors its definition of apartheid in international law, which carries with
it responsibilities for States, as specified in international instruments.
The choice of evidence is guided by the Apartheid Convention, which sets forth that the crime
of apartheid consists of discrete inhuman acts, but that such acts acquire the status of crimes
against humanity only if they intentionally serve the core purpose of racial domination. The Rome
Statute specifies in its definition the presence of an "institutionalized regime" serving the
"intention" of racial domination. Since "purpose" and "intention" lie at the core of both definitions,
this report examines factors ostensibly separate from the Palestinian dimension - especially,
the doctrine of Jewish statehood as expressed in law and the design of Israeli State institutions
- to establish beyond doubt the presence of such a core purpose.
That the Israeli regime is designed for this core purpose was found to be evident in the body
of laws, only some of which are discussed in the report for reasons of scope. One prominent example
is land policy. The Israeli Basic Law (Constitution) mandates that land held by the State of Israel,
the Israeli Development Authority or the Jewish National Fund shall not be transferred in any
manner, placing its management permanently under their authority. The State Property Law of 1951
provides for the reversion of property (including land) to the State in any area "in which the
law of the State of Israel applies". The Israel Lands Authority (ILA) manages State land, which
accounts for 93 per cent of the land within the internationally recognized borders of Israel and
is by law closed to use, development or ownership by non-Jews. Those laws reflect the concept
of "public purpose" as expressed in the Basic Law. Such laws may be changed by Knesset vote, but
the Basic Law: Knesset prohibits any political party from challenging that public purpose. Effectively,
Israeli law renders opposition to racial domination illegal....
Kevin Drum reads some WSJ spin about how wages (nominal) rose
by 2.8%. The footnote alone takes this to task:
'This is
not adjusted for inflation, so even for the broad labor
market, wage gains haven't been all that impressive
recently.'
He also notes how the broad measure likely overstates the
wage 'increase' for ordinary workers. When reading WSJ spin,
it is always important to check out the details.
Yes, I am really frightened. We cut
taxes for the wealthy by $60 billion a year, to spend another $54 billion on the military, and take
away healthcare insurance from 20 million and more. And, in case readers are wondering, we spent
$732.2 billion on the military in 2016:
Our defense spending is as much
as the next 10 countries combined. But sure, let's spend more on it while we cut clean water
projects in the Chesapeake bay cleanup(Trump's nominee to head EPA has opposed the Chesapeake
Bay cleanup):
You're frightened? So am I. My daughter works as an epidemiologist at a state (but all the
staff work on federal grants) and they're all scared that "Trumponomics" will force layoffs
there.
My daughter works as an epidemiologist
at a state (but all the staff work on federal grants) and they're all scared that "Trumponomics"
will force layoffs there.
[ Important, and the Chesapeake Bay is a treasure. ]
it's obvious that Conway was reading about the wikileaks
release of the CIA's Vault 7, which shows they have the
capability of remotely turning over the counter smart phones
and TVs into spying devices...the release was widely covered
in the foreign press, not so much here..
1) The CIA has the ability to break into Android and
iPhone handsets, and all kinds of computers. The US
intelligence agency has been involved in a concerted effort
to write various kinds of malware to spy on just about every
piece of electronic equipment that people use. That includes
iPhones, Androids and computers running Windows, macOS and
Linux.
2) Doing so would make apps like Signal, Telegram and
WhatsApp entirely insecure Encrypted messaging apps are only
as secure as the device they are used on – if an operating
system is compromised, then the messages can be read before
they encrypted and sent to the other user. WikiLeaks claims
that has happened, potentially meaning that messages have
been compromised even if all of the usual precautions had
been taken.
3) The CIA could use smart TVs to listen in on
conversations that happened around them. One of the most
eye-catching programmes detailed in the documents is "Weeping
Angel". That allows intelligence agencies to install special
software that allows TVs to be turned into listening devices
– so that even when they appear to be switched off, they're
actually on.
4) The agency explored hacking into cars and crashing
them, allowing 'nearly undetectable assassinations'
5) The CIA hid vulnerabilities that could be used by
hackers from other countries or governments Such bugs were
found in the biggest consumer electronics in the world,
including phones and computers made Apple, Google and
Microsoft. But those companies didn't get the chance to fix
those exploits because the agency kept them secret in order
to keep using them, the documents suggest.
6) More information is coming. The documents have still
not been looked through entirely. There are 8,378 pages of
files, some of which have already been analyzed but many of
which hasn't. When taken together, those "Vault 7" leaks will
make up the biggest intelligence publication in history,
WikiLeaks claimed.
"... Great charts, and the first attempt I've seen to actually quantify the effect. I see one big problem: incarceration really exploded between 1980 and 2000, and yet that is exactly when the secular decline in the LFPR, relatively speaking, abated. ..."
Great charts, and the first attempt I've seen to actually quantify the effect. I see one big problem: incarceration really exploded between 1980 and 2000, and yet that is exactly when the secular decline in
the LFPR, relatively speaking, abated.
"The main reason may be a much more skeptical view of the role of government and of tax-and-transfer
policies that is now shared by the middle classes in many countries compared to their predecessors
half a century ago. This is not saying that people just want lower taxation or are unaware that without
high taxes the systems of social security, free education, modern infrastructure etc. would collapse.
But it is saying that the electorate is more skeptical about the gains to be achieved from additional
increases in taxes imposed on current income and that such increases are unlikely to be voted in."
I think he is mistaken about this. I believe that most people who want lower taxes, at least in
the US, are totally "unaware that without high taxes the systems of social security, free education,
modern infrastructure etc. would collapse." They have been told by Republican politicians for over
forty years that the government is full of waste, fraud, and abuse and that this is why our taxes
are so high without being contradicted by Democratic politicians to the point that the vast majority
of the population believe that this is where the problem lies rather than in the fact government
services have to be paid for and we don't collect enough taxes to pay for them.
Why should anyone believe otherwise in a world in which the need to pay taxes to sustain vital
government services is never acknowledged in the debate over waste, fraud, and abuse in providing
those services? See:
http://www.rweconomics.com/Deficit.htm
Noni Mausa :
March 13, 2017 at 04:13 PM
What the wealthy right wing has decided in the past 40 years is that they don't need citizens. At
least, not as many citizens as are actually citizens. What they are comfortable with is a large population
of free range people, like the longhorn cattle of the old west, who care for themselves as best they
can, and are convenient to be used when the "ranchers" want them.
Of course, this is their approach to foreign workers, also, but for the purpose of maintaining
a domestic society within which the domestic rich can comfortably live, only native born Americans
really suit.
With the development of high productivity production, farming, and hands-off war technology the
need for a large number of citizens is reduced. The wealthy can sit in their towers and arrange the
world as suits them, and use the rest of the world as a "farm team" to supply skills and labour as
needed.
Proof of this is the fact that they talk about the economy's need for certain skills, training,
services and so on, but never about the inherent value of citizens independent of their utility to
someone else.
No wonder the unemployed increasingly kill themselves, or others. The whole economy tells them,
indirectly but unmistakably, that their human value does not exist. ken melvin : ,
March 13, 2017 at 04:48 PM
Can someone get me from $300 billion tax cut for the rich to getting the markets work for health
care?
It isn't about 'markets', never is. It is about extraction of as much profit as possible using
whatever means necessary. This is what the CEOs of insurance companies get payed to do. Insurance
policies they don't pay out, the ones Ryan is referring to, are as good as any for scoring.
"It isn't about 'markets', never is. It is about extraction of as much profit as possible using
whatever means necessary. This is what the CEOs of insurance companies get payed to do."
What surprises me most in this discussion is how Obamacare suddenly changed from a dismal and
expensive failure enriching private insurers to a "good deal".
When the PPACA band-aid is pulled off the US health care mess the gusher will be blamed on "the
Russians running the White House".
Cuba does better than the US despite being economically sanctioned for 55 years. Distribution
of artificially scarce health care resources is utterly broken. This failed market is financed
by a mix of 'for profit' insurance and medicare (which sublets a big part to 'for profit' insurance).
Coverage!!! PPACA added taxpayers' money to finance a bigger failed market. It did nothing
to address the market fail!
Single payer would not address the market failure. Single payer would put the government financing
most of the failed market.
Democrats have put band-aids on severe bleeds since Truman made the cold war more important
than Americans.
Cuba is the shining example of how doing the first 20% of healthcare well for everyone gets you
80% of the benefit cheap.
The US is the shining example of how refusing to do the first 20% of healthcare well for everyone
only gets you 80% of the benefit no matter how much you spend.
Mark's very nice argument does nothing to address The Official Trump Counter Argument:
[Shorter version: Obamacare is doomed, going to blow up. Any replacement is therefore better
than Obamacare; Facts seldom win arguments against beliefs]
"During a listening session on healthcare at the White House on Monday, President Donald Trump
said Republicans "are putting themselves in a very bad position by repealing Obamacare."
Trump said that his administration is "committed to repealing and replacing" Obamacare and
that the House Obamacare replacement will lead to more choice at a lower cost. He further stated,
"[T]he press is making Obamacare look so good all, of a sudden. I'm watching the news. It looks
so good. They're showing these reports about this one gets so much, and this one gets so much.
First of all, it covers very few people, and it's imploding. And '17 will be the worst year. And
I said it once; I'll say it again: because Obama's gone."
He continued, "And the Republicans, frankly, are putting themselves in a very bad position
- I tell this to Tom Price all the time - by repealing Obamacare. Because people aren't gonna
see the truly devastating effects of Obamacare. They're not gonna see the devastation. In '17
and '18 and '19, it'll be gone by then. It'll - whether we do it or not, it'll be imploded off
the map."
He added, "So, the press is making it look so wonderful, so that if we end it, everyone's going
to say, 'Oh, remember how great Obamacare used to be? Remember how wonderful it used to be? It
was so great.' It's a little bit like President Obama. When he left, people liked him. When he
was here, people didn't like him so much. That's the way life goes. That's human nature."
Trump further stated that while letting Obamacare collapse on its own was the best thing to
do politically, it wasn't the right thing to do for the country.
In the GE Aviation
lobby, as Indiana
Governor Holcomb
rocked slightly in
custom-made cowboy
boots – black, pointed
toes, an outline of
Indiana on the front
of the shaft – and the
sound of the ignition
of his SUV signaling
the end of a Wednesday
afternoon at the GE
plant, Plant Manager
Matteson added one
more thing:
Immigration reform
would really help on a
number of fronts,
starting with clearing
the way for the talent
pool coming out of
Indiana Universities
and other engineering
schools.
This is the
new manufacturing that
is replacing the
factories being
shuttered. They are
run by engineers, many
of them foreign. They
hire workers who they
will train and workers
must be capable of
learning and fitting
in with the work
culture. Manufacturing
is locating in urban
areas and near
Universities where
they can find a pool
of high skill talent
and a workforce that
is accustomed to
diversity. They will
NOT go to a redneck
sundown town where the
Indian engineers are
going to be harassed
and maybe shot. The
Sundown towns are
chasing away the very
people they need to
save their
communities. The
denigrate education
and fail to teach
their children the
math skills they would
need to become high
skill engineering
talent. Low skill jobs
cannot have high pay
without unions. These
voters have voted for
politicians who have
destroyed their unions
with Right to Work
laws and other bad
policy.
They are egged on
by Trump who
understands none of
this and promises to
return their low skill
jobs. The GOP and
Trump blame trade and
immigrants, pushing
the cultural buttons
to deflect attention
to their complicity in
destroying unions,
underfunding education
and failure to invest
in the workforce
Yep. There is certainly a roach motel policy aspect to
globalization. Dependencies upon existing supply chains both
for wage and regulatory arbitrage pricing and for invested
fixed capital stock impose yuuge drags on on-shoring efforts.
The poverty economics from 40 acres and mule all the way to
single parent eligibility requirements and subsequent
"reforms" for family financial aid were also roach motel
economics. Now we have the irony of the sharing economy
further suppressing wages.
When Trump picked Pruitt to Head the EPA he picked a quack
Global Warming Climate Change denier AS WELL AS A Lobbyist
for Big Energy whose goal is antithetical to the mission of
the EPA
We can see that here, Big Energy focusing on State
legislatures, in addition to Congress, to slow or stop
Electric Cars to keep reliance upon petroleum based fuels
while they have friends in high offices to help them advance
their special interest agendas
But in reality most of US media fits the definition "They are
among the most dishonest human beings on earth."
Unfortunately. Good articles still happen, but they are rare
jewels in the massive dung of propaganda.
They really are now quite on par with the USSR
propagandists from Pravda and Izvestia.
I for one switched to British media which is slightly
better (especially comments) while also quite neoliberal
(especially Guardian)
Comments to a typical article in WaPo suggest that with
the current level of brainwashing of the population (as
demonstrated by WaPo commenters, even adjusting for specific
social base of WaPo) the US got into an "ideological trap"
from which it might never be able to escape.
And it is not unplausible that because of this trap it
will remain disconnected with reality it might eventually
collapse and disintegrate like the USSR. That's the danger of
neoliberal brainwashing.
The USSR was unable to compete with the West. The USA
faces China and South Asia "tigers" problem.
BTW Japan might not be willing to remain the USA
protectorate forever.
Like communist ideology free market fundamentalism is
sticky and self-sustaining. Probably more then Bolshevism
ever was.
Witness amazing resilience it demonstrated after financial
collapse of 2008 which essentially buried neoliberalism (aka
free market fundamentalism) as ideology.
And self-regulating markets are the same kind of Utopia as
Communism (in its Bolshevism interpretation). Extremes meet.
In this particular sense, the US society now resembles the
USSR society: a para-theocratic state with neoliberalism as a
state religion
Actually "In God we trust" should probably be replaced "In
free market we trust" on dollar bills.
If I remember correctly Christ did not like money changers
so putting this on dollar bills and coins was a travesty from
the very beginning (The cleansing of the Temple story "And
making a whip of cords, he drove them all out of the temple,
with the sheep and oxen. And he poured out the coins of the
money-changers and overturned their tables. And he told those
who sold the pigeons, "Take these things away; do not make my
Father's house a house of trade."[Jn 2:13–16]")
And nobody in sound mind can't deny this fact of mass
brainwashing and the conversion of the US into a
para-theocratic state quite similar to the USSR.
How those honchos in congress can speak about wonders of
deregulation after 2008 without being drunk or on drugs I do
not fully understand.
"... Kiev throws paramilitaries – some openly neo-Nazi - into the front of the battle with rebels ..."
"... But Kiev's use of volunteer paramilitaries to stamp out the Russian-backed Donetsk and Luhansk "people's republics", proclaimed in eastern Ukraine in March, should send a shiver down Europe's spine. Recently formed battalions such as Donbas, Dnipro and Azov, with several thousand men under their command, are officially under the control of the interior ministry but their financing is murky, their training inadequate and their ideology often alarming. ..."
"... The Azov men use the neo-Nazi Wolfsangel (Wolf's Hook) symbol on their banner and members of the battalion are openly white supremacists, or anti-Semites. ..."
"... The regiment's first commander was far-right nationalist Andriy Biletsky, who led the neo-Nazi Social-National Assembly and Patriot of Ukraine. ..."
"... Azov has gained notoriety among its detractors due to allegations of torture and war crimes, as well as the neo-Nazi sympathies of some of its members. ..."
Ukraine crisis: the neo-Nazi brigade fighting pro-Russian
separatists
Kiev throws paramilitaries – some openly neo-Nazi - into the
front of the battle with rebels
By Tom Parfitt
9:00AM BST 11 Aug 2014
......................................
But Kiev's use of volunteer paramilitaries to stamp out
the Russian-backed Donetsk and Luhansk "people's republics",
proclaimed in eastern Ukraine in March, should send a shiver
down Europe's spine. Recently formed battalions such as
Donbas, Dnipro and Azov, with several thousand men under
their command, are officially under the control of the
interior ministry but their financing is murky, their
training inadequate and their ideology often alarming.
The Azov men use the neo-Nazi Wolfsangel (Wolf's Hook)
symbol on their banner and members of the battalion are
openly white supremacists, or anti-Semites.
The Azov Regiment (Ukrainian: Полк Азов) is a National Guard
of Ukraine regiment.[1][2][3][4]
The unit is based in Mariupol in the Azov Sea coastal
region.[5] It saw its first combat experience recapturing
Mariupol from pro-Russian separatists forces in June 2014.[3]
Initially a volunteer militia, formed as the Azov
Battalion on 5 May 2014 during the 2014 pro-Russian unrest in
Ukraine, since 12 November 2014 Azov has been incorporated
into the National Guard of Ukraine.[6] All members of the
unit are under contract of and serve as part of the National
Guard of Ukraine.[7]
More than half of the Battalion members are from eastern
Ukraine and speak Russian,[8] and some of its recruits come
from the eastern cities of Donetsk and Luhansk.[9] The
regiment's first commander was far-right nationalist Andriy
Biletsky, who led the neo-Nazi Social-National Assembly and
Patriot of Ukraine.[10][11]
In its early days, Azov was the Ministry of Internal
Affairs' special police company, led by Volodymyr Shpara, the
leader of the Vasylkiv, Kiev, branch of Patriot of Ukraine
and Right Sector.[12][13][14] Under the "Azov" umbrella were
also created the non-governmental organization "Azov Civil
Corps" and the political party National Corps.[15]
Azov has gained notoriety among its detractors due to
allegations of torture and war crimes, as well as the
neo-Nazi sympathies of some of its members.
"... While I'm told that Russia did provide some light weapons to the rebels early in the struggle so they could defend themselves and their territory and a number of Russian nationalists have crossed the border to join the fight the claims of an overt "invasion" with tanks, artillery and truck convoys have been backed up by scant intelligence. ..."
"... One former U.S. intelligence official who has examined the evidence said the intelligence to support the claims of a significant Russian invasion amounted to "virtually nothing." ..."
"... Instead, it appears that the ethnic Russian rebels may have evolved into a more effective fighting force than many in the West thought. They are, after all, fighting on their home turf for their futures. ..."
"... "You need to know," the group wrote, "that accusations of a major Russian 'invasion' of Ukraine appear not to be supported by reliable intelligence. Rather, the 'intelligence' seems to be of the same dubious, politically 'fixed' kind used 12 years ago to 'justify' the U.S.-led attack on Iraq." ..."
"... Slavs are killing each other for the same reason Arabs are killing each other: to ensure the USA geopolitical and economic interests are served well. Divide and conquer was polished by British elite to perfection, and the USA elite adopted this policy like a very talented student. This is what neocolonialism is about. Disaster capitalism in action. ..."
Official Washington draws the Ukraine crisis in black-and-white colors with Russian President
Putin the bad guy and the U.S.-backed leaders in Kiev the good guys. But the reality is much more
nuanced, with the American people consistently misled on key facts.
...............
A Mysterious 'Invasion'
And now there's the curious case of Russia's alleged "invasion" of Ukraine, another alarmist
claim trumpeted by the Kiev regime and echoed by NATO hardliners and the MSM.
While I'm told that Russia did provide some light weapons to the rebels early in the struggle
so they could defend themselves and their territory and a number of Russian nationalists have
crossed the border to join the fight the claims of an overt "invasion" with tanks, artillery and
truck convoys have been backed up by scant intelligence.
One former U.S. intelligence official who has examined the evidence said the intelligence
to support the claims of a significant Russian invasion amounted to "virtually nothing."
Instead, it appears that the ethnic Russian rebels may have evolved into a more effective
fighting force than many in the West thought. They are, after all, fighting on their home turf
for their futures.
Concerned about the latest rush to judgment about the "invasion," the Veteran Intelligence
Professionals for Sanity, a group of former U.S. intelligence officials and analysts, took the
unusual step of sending a memo to German Chancellor Angela Merkel warning her of a possible replay
of the false claims that led to the Iraq War.
"You need to know," the group wrote, "that accusations of a major Russian 'invasion' of
Ukraine appear not to be supported by reliable intelligence. Rather, the 'intelligence' seems
to be of the same dubious, politically 'fixed' kind used 12 years ago to 'justify' the U.S.-led
attack on Iraq."
But these doubts and concerns are not reflected in the Post's editorial or other MSM accounts
of the dangerous Ukraine crisis. Indeed, Americans who rely on these powerful news outlets for
their information are as sheltered from reality as anyone living in a totalitarian society.
Slavs are killing each other for the same reason Arabs are killing each other: to ensure the
USA geopolitical and economic interests are served well. Divide and conquer was polished by British
elite to perfection, and the USA elite adopted this policy like a very talented student. This
is what neocolonialism is about. Disaster capitalism in action.
"... These are all the product of a shared suppressing of actual wage class majority WCM " best interests". The WCM must be fragmented for elites to attach Non rational handles to them. And port them around as voting pawns in elite tussles ..."
"... Yep. That is what makes identity politics so appealing. You get all the triangulation necessary to fragment the WCM at NO COST to corporate or wealthy economic interests. Who said there was no such thing as a free lunch? ..."
"... "fragment the WCM at NO COST to corporate or wealthy economic interests." Now I understand why two parties are necessary instead of just one. ..."
"... When 'democratic' elections are required, elites can't preserve their monopoly on power unless the electorate gets split on issues besides economic ones. Therefore, identity issues. ..."
"... Exactly! Also, when stuff goes real badly the party in power at the time gets deposed and its alternate elected into office, so that there is no further political retribution by the electorate. We become vindicated and satisfied by our only plausible response. We can just flip flop back and forth between the two parties amusing ourselves endlessly while the same elite class controls everything except which political surrogates will be their front men at any given point in time. ..."
"Rational, reasoning person"s have been absent the past 8
years; anyone disagreeing with Obama was racist or wanted the
evil doers to win, and in the past year [aided by deep state
surveillance of the political opposition] anyone opposing
Clinton is for Russians taking over and anti woman.......
When
naked class interests have to be disguised
When
choices are not what they appear to be
When
outcomes rely on non rational non empirical convictions
These are all the product of a shared suppressing of
actual
wage class majority WCM " best interests". The WCM must be fragmented for elites to attach Non
rational handles to them.
And port them around as voting pawns in elite tussles
Yep. That is what makes identity politics so appealing. You
get all the triangulation necessary to fragment the WCM at NO
COST to corporate or wealthy economic interests. Who said
there was no such thing as a free lunch?
"fragment the WCM at NO COST to corporate or wealthy economic
interests." Now I understand why two parties are necessary
instead of just one.
When 'democratic' elections are required, elites can't
preserve their monopoly on power unless the electorate gets
split on issues besides economic ones. Therefore, identity
issues.
If there was just one party, unity against elites would
most likely coalesce around economic issues, which would
become the common denominator of opposition ala French
Revolution, the Russian Revolution, etc., etc.
Exactly! Also, when stuff goes real badly the party in power
at the time gets deposed and its alternate elected into
office, so that there is no further political retribution by
the electorate. We become vindicated and satisfied by our
only plausible response. We can just flip flop back and forth
between the two parties amusing ourselves endlessly while the
same elite class controls everything except which political
surrogates will be their front men at any given point in
time.
.0 out of 5 stars
Excellent
review of Polanyi and excellent critique of the modern economy
By
B.
Brinker
on
May 10, 2014
Format: Kindle Edition
|
Verified
Purchase
This book deserves to be a part of the national
discussion, as do Polanyi's thoughts. I read Polanyi some
years ago and was looking for a refresher when I came
across this book. This book not only reviews Polanyi's
work and places it in the context of modern economic and
sociological research, but also adapts many of his
theories to the current times. Along the way the authors
offer useful insights into Polanyi's life and how his
experiences shaped his thoughts.
Pros- Well written, clear, and concise for an academic
book. Does an excellent job of bringing Polanyi's thoughts
up to date.
Cons- The authors (two highly regarded professors) appear
to have a very leftist bent. This isn't a bad thing, in my
opinion, but some readers may be turned off by that.
UPDATED: I wanted to write a longer review on this book
once I had time to reflect on it. I intended to write the
typical academic style "summarize and critique" review but
realized I can add more value to potential readers by
explaining why this book is an important read.
Have you been noticing how politics is becoming
increasingly polarized? If you hop over to look at the
reviews for Piketty's "Capital in the 21st Century" you'll
notice that literally 100's of ideological zealots have
been attacking the book. Not reading and critiquing, but
posting bad reviews even though they've never read it.
Ever wonder why people act like this? Why Market
Fundamentalism has become so strong? This book will help
you think on and answer these questions.
Isn't it odd that we have been pursuing neo-liberal
policies for 30 years, even though they have already
proven to be a failure? Debt is rising, health care costs
are spiraling out of control, college is unaffordable, the
gap between rich and poor is widening. Despite the fact
that we live in an age of failed neoliberalism, rolling
back such policies isn't the answer, oh no what we need is
more neoliberalism.
This book will help you understand the appeal of
neoliberalism and its emergence as a utopian ideal that
can never be achieved. The book also explains the
historical context of market fundamentalism and the
decline of Keynesian economics to show why the one serious
challenge to neoliberalism was eventually marginalized.
out of 5 stars
The
best analysis and summation of Polanyi's thought to date!!!
By
Claudio
Dionigi
on
January 6, 2015
Format: Hardcover
I have read most of Polanyi's work, as well as books and
articles about his work (including Gareth Dale's text),
and while doing so I have tried to keep in mind what the
spirit of Polanyi's work is. I believe that Fred Block and
Margaret Somers have captured that spirit in this text.
This book is an excellent summation and update to
Polanyi's critique of free-market fundamentalism,
highlighting the reasons for the resurgence of his ideas
in recent years. It is a must read for anyone who is
interested in Polanyi's work or is at all concerned about
the current state of affairs in political-economy. It
draws on a wide variety of other texts to pull the threads
of Polanyi's thoughts together and contextualise them
within a broader discourse. It relates Polanyi's work
nicely to the crises induced by neoliberalism in recent
years (more to come, no doubt). It is well laid out, in
accessible language and a pleasant style. Whether you are
from the left or the right, do yourself a favour and read
this book.
"... People making $200,000 to $999,999 a year would also get sizable tax cuts. In total, the two provisions would cut taxes by about $274 billion during the coming decade, virtually all of it for people making at least $200,000, according to a separate assessment by the committee. ..."
"... "Repeal-and-replace is a gigantic transfer of wealth from the lowest-income Americans to the highest-income Americas," said Edward D. Kleinbard, a professor at the University of Southern California law school and former chief of staff for the Joint Committee on Taxation. ..."
"... Tax economists point out that even tax cuts for the wealthy can have indirect benefits for others. For example, the additional cash can prompt extra spending and extra hiring. ..."
"... That said, "most of the benefit of getting rid of those two taxes would go to wealthy people," said Joel Slemrod, a professor at the University of Michigan Ross School of Business and former senior staff economist for President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers. "It's not significant for me to add a caveat." ..."
"... One of the taxes targeted in the repeal bill is a 3.8 percent tax on investment income, like capital gains. The other is a 0.9 percent surcharge on the Medicare taxes imposed on high-income earners - individuals making more than $200,000 a year and married couples filing joint returns who earn more than $250,000 a year. That brings the Medicare tax levied on that income up to 3.8 percent as well. ..."
Wealthy Would Get Billions in Tax Cuts Under Obamacare Repeal Plan (link won't post)
NYT - JESSE DRUCKER - MARCH 10, 2017
Two of the biggest tax cuts in Republican proposals to repeal the Affordable Care Act would
deliver roughly $157 billion over the coming decade to those with incomes of $1 million or more,
according to a congressional analysis.
The assessment was made by the Joint Committee on Taxation, a nonpartisan panel that provides
research on tax issues.
It is not unusual for tax cuts to benefit mostly the wealthiest, but still save some money
for a majority of Americans. But the benefits of these reductions would be aimed squarely at the
top.
The provisions would repeal two tax increases on high earners enacted in 2010 to help pay for
the Affordable Care Act: an increase in capital gains taxes and other investment-related income,
and a surcharge on Medicare taxes.
People making $200,000 to $999,999 a year would also get sizable tax cuts. In total, the
two provisions would cut taxes by about $274 billion during the coming decade, virtually all of
it for people making at least $200,000, according to a separate assessment by the committee.
"Repeal-and-replace is a gigantic transfer of wealth from the lowest-income Americans to
the highest-income Americas," said Edward D. Kleinbard, a professor at the University of Southern
California law school and former chief of staff for the Joint Committee on Taxation.
Tax economists point out that even tax cuts for the wealthy can have indirect benefits
for others. For example, the additional cash can prompt extra spending and extra hiring.
That said, "most of the benefit of getting rid of those two taxes would go to wealthy people,"
said Joel Slemrod, a professor at the University of Michigan Ross School of Business and former
senior staff economist for President Ronald Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers. "It's not significant
for me to add a caveat."
One of the taxes targeted in the repeal bill is a 3.8 percent tax on investment income,
like capital gains. The other is a 0.9 percent surcharge on the Medicare taxes imposed on high-income
earners - individuals making more than $200,000 a year and married couples filing joint returns
who earn more than $250,000 a year. That brings the Medicare tax levied on that income up to 3.8
percent as well.
The tax repeal would solely benefit wealthy Americans because the taxes were imposed only on
the wealthiest. The increases were passed in 2010, when capital gains rates were near historical
lows. During the George W. Bush administration, Congress cut the rates to 15 percent from 20 percent.
With the 3.8 percent tax imposed by the Affordable Care Act, the top capital gains rate stands
at 23.8 percent for the wealthiest Americans. That still makes the rate lower it was for most
of the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. ...
CIA and militarism loving Democrats are what is called Vichy left...
Notable quotes:
"... "Apparently, most Democrats are now defending the CIA [and bashing the US constitution] and trashing WikiLeaks (who have never had to retract a single story in all their years). The brainwashing is complete. Take a valium and watch your Rachel Maddow [read your poor pk]. I can no longer help you. You have become The Borg." ..."
"... There is a large amount of ground between being a Victoria Nuland neocon hawk going around picking unnecessary fights with Russia and engaging in aggression overt or covert against her or her allies ..."
"... I happen to support reasonable engagement with Russia on matters of mutual interest, and I think there are many of those. I do not support cheerleading when Russia commits aggression against neighbors, which it has, and then lies about it. There is a middle ground, but you and ilsm both seem to have let your brains fall out of your heads onto the sidewalk and then stepped on them hard regarding all this. ..."
"... US Deep state analogy to Stalin's machinations against his rivals seems reasonable. ..."
"Apparently, most Democrats are now defending the CIA [and bashing the US constitution] and
trashing WikiLeaks (who have never had to retract a single story in all their years). The brainwashing
is complete. Take a valium and watch your Rachel Maddow [read your poor pk]. I can no longer help
you. You have become The Borg."
I am going to make one more point, a substantive one. There is a large amount of ground between
being a Victoria Nuland neocon hawk going around picking unnecessary fights with Russia and engaging
in aggression overt or covert against her or her allies and simply rolling over to be a patsy
for the worst fort of RT propaganda and saying that there is no problem whatsoever with having
a president who is in deep financial hock to a murderous lying Russian president and who has made
inane and incomprehensible remarks about this, along with having staff and aides who lie to the
public about their dealings with people from Russia.
I happen to support reasonable engagement with Russia on matters of mutual interest, and I
think there are many of those. I do not support cheerleading when Russia commits aggression against
neighbors, which it has, and then lies about it. There is a middle ground, but you and ilsm both
seem to have let your brains fall out of your heads onto the sidewalk and then stepped on them
hard regarding all this.
If you find this offensive or intimidating, anne, sorry, but I am not going to apologize. Frankly,
I think you should apologize for the stupid and offensive things you have said on this subject,
about which I do not think you have the intimately personal knowledge that I have.
Reply Wednesday, March 08, 2017 at 12:36 AM
My dear interlocutor
As a once overt and future sleeper cell Stalinist
I'm perplexed by your artful use of Stalinist
In my experience that label was restricted to pinko circles notably
Trotskyists pinning the dirty tag on various shades of commie types
On the other side of the great divide of the early thirties
Buy you --
To you it seems synonymous with Orwellian demons of all stripes
a) In the 70s, a Dem congress began deregulating the financial system with the help of a Dem
president.
b) In the 80s, a Dem congress continued deregulation and cut taxes on the rich, increased taxes
on the not so rich, cut SS benefits and essential government programs, and abandoned the unions.
c) In the 90s, a Dem president reappointed Greenspan to the Fed, further deregulated and cut
essential programs, and signed draconian crime, welfare, and student loan bills into law.
d) In 07, the Dems took back the congress and did nothing to hold accountable those who had
led us into a war under false pretenses, turned us into a nation of torturers, and politicized
the Justice Department as the concentration of income rose until the economy blew up in the fall
of 08.
e) In 09 the Dems took complete control of the federal government and ignored students and
homeowners as they bailed out the banks, passed a Heritage Foundation healthcare plan championed
by the insurance and drug companies as incomes and wages plummeted.
The working and middle classes were decimated throughout this process, and, somehow, it's the
voters' fault we ended up with a throw the bums out Trump instead of a more of the same Hillary?
I don't think so!
"The obvious solution for rising healthcare costs is either a public option or extending
Medicare to younger and younger people, but Democrats, other than Sanders, refuse to offer
or defend these solutions."
Medicare for all was not offered because politically it was a non-starter. The public option
was offered and once the Republicans (and Democrats who might as well be Republicans) realized
what it meant (out-competing insurance companies) they opposed it.
people who try to equate these class traitors to all democrats are carrying their water.
[[House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) pledged at the time that the House bill would include a
public option.15 Indeed, a public option offered through a private insurance exchange was included
in all three versions of the bill passed by House committees in the summer of 2009 (House Ways
and Means and House Education and Labor on 17 July 2009; House Energy and Commerce on 31 July
2009), as well as in the bill passed by the full House of Representatives on 7 November 2009 (the
Affordable Health Care for America Act, HR 3962). A public option was also included in the bill
passed by the Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions Committee on 15 July 2009 (the Affordable
Health Choices Act, S 1679).
Senate Democrats were engaged in a highly contentious debate throughout the fall of 2009, and
the political life of the public option changed almost daily. The debate reached a critical impasse
in November 2009, when Sen. Joseph Lieberman (I-CT), who usually caucuses with the Democrats,
threatened to filibuster the Senate bill if it included a public option.
Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) made last-minute attempts to introduce
amendments to include a public option as the bill was about to be voted on by the Senate Finance
Committee. Those failed, and there was no public option in either the bill that emerged from that
committee or the bill that passed the full Senate on 24 December 2009]]
I agree. Medicare For All! Should have been the rallying cry from the start. The Democrats should
have challenged the Republicans to argue against the logic of it and laid them bare but they didn't.
If that was the starting point of any negotiations we might have a much better health insurance
system now. I guess I have to blame Obama for the lack of leadership on that one.
"The obvious solution for rising healthcare costs is either a public option or extending Medicare
to younger and younger people, but Democrats, other than Sanders, refuse to offer or defend these
solutions."
In either case, Congress has not allowed Medicare to negotiate costs completely and you believe
they my allow a Public Option to do so???
The point is that the public has never been given a choice. No one except Sanders has made this
sort of thing a campaign issue, and the Democrats rejected Sanders. As a result, we ended up with
a Republican congress and Trump.
"... Not too long ago I argued * that Bonapartism in the nineteenth century was the predecessor of Mussolini fascism in the twentieth, the emphasis on a militaristic dictator emphasizing strong nationalism that smothers all groups into following the national leader. ..."
"... Cola di Rienzo seized power in Rome in 1347, declaring a revived Roman republic and attempted to conquer Italy and declared that he wished to conquer the whole world. His rule did not last long and he fell from power after trying, but he took power under the first use of a red flag in political history, and he had a grandiose notion of himself, to put it mildly, giving himself the title "Nicholas, the Severe and Merciful, Tribune of Liberty, Peace and Justice, Liberator of the Holy Roman Republic." He was also the first person in history to write with a silver pen, with which signed official decrees. ..."
"... "These are: literary, artistic, vague and contradictory ideas, practically unrelated to the contemporary world, the vast ambition to dominate all Italy, to re-establish the Empire, and, in the end the rest of Europ; the dream of building a 'new State,' inspired by ancient history, in which peace, law and virtue would prevail; a genuine love for his people,his country, and their glorious past, a love so intense it could be confused with self-love, as if he identified himself with Italy and the Italians; and the desire to avenge his peoples' ruin and humiliation, which he attributed solely to the wickedness of others." ..."
Not too long ago I argued * that Bonapartism in the
nineteenth century was the predecessor of Mussolini fascism
in the twentieth, the emphasis on a militaristic dictator
emphasizing strong nationalism that smothers all groups into
following the national leader. However, it turns out that
Napoleon Bonaparte had his own model. When he invaded Russia
he carried a book with him written in 1733 called Conjurat de
Nicholas, dit de Rienzi, about Cola di Rienzo.
Cola di Rienzo seized power in Rome in 1347, declaring a
revived Roman republic and attempted to conquer Italy and
declared that he wished to conquer the whole world. His rule
did not last long and he fell from power after trying, but he
took power under the first use of a red flag in political
history, and he had a grandiose notion of himself, to put it
mildly, giving himself the title "Nicholas, the Severe and
Merciful, Tribune of Liberty, Peace and Justice, Liberator of
the Holy Roman Republic." He was also the first person in
history to write with a silver pen, with which signed
official decrees.
The astute Luigi Barzini in The Italians claims that he
was the pure Italian hero and describes him as having the
following characteristics (one sentence):
"These are: literary, artistic, vague and contradictory
ideas, practically unrelated to the contemporary world, the
vast ambition to dominate all Italy, to re-establish the
Empire, and, in the end the rest of Europ; the dream of
building a 'new State,' inspired by ancient history, in which
peace, law and virtue would prevail; a genuine love for his
people,his country, and their glorious past, a love so
intense it could be confused with self-love, as if he
identified himself with Italy and the Italians; and the
desire to avenge his peoples' ruin and humiliation, which he
attributed solely to the wickedness of others."
Addendum: Wagner's obscure early opera, "Rienzi," is about
this figure....
The word fascist, perhaps one of the most abused forms of
political abuse, should properly apply to those connected
with the Italian party of that name, founded by Benito
Mussolini and others in 1919.
A fascis was a birch rod carried in ancient Rome by the
lictors, a kind of proto-police force.
The individual fascis was used to impose discipline on
behalf of the state, but when bound together in a bundle of
fasces, the one rod became, both symbolically and physically,
stronger.
The bundled rods, which also incorporated an axe
symbolising the lictors' right to carry out judicial
executions, became a symbol of power for the Romans, but it
survived into later history.
Some representations of the American flag contain a fasces
symbol, as does the statue of Abraham Lincoln in his Memorial
in Washington DC, albeit without the axe.
The Romans were undoubtedly racist in outlook, and many of
the Founding Fathers of the United States were slave-owners.
Mussolini's political philosophy was not based to such an
all-encompassing extent as Hitler's on dogmas of racial
purity, but Jews and black people were routine targets of his
thuggish supporters in post-First World War Italy.
The history of Paolo di Canio's straight-armed salute,
favoured by Mussolini and later adopted by the Nazis, also
pre-dates Italian fascism.
It is a subject steeped in dissent, but the salute seems
to date back to the French Revolutionary period when the
painter David depicted scenes of ancient Rome in which oaths
of allegiance were accompanied by that type of salute.
There seems to be no pictorial evidence of the salute in
use in ancient Rome.
"... In the West, it's now common for politicians to shout Russian "fake news" when embarrassing facts come out - as happened with Canada's new foreign minister hiding a Nazi family skeleton. ..."
"... Over the next week, the article entitled "A Nazi Skeleton in the Family Closet" by journalist Arina Tsukanova (which I personally edited and fact-checked) circulated enough that Freeland was asked about it by the Canadian news media. As often happens these days, Freeland chose not to tell the truth but rather portrayed the article as part of a Russian propaganda and disinformation campaign. ..."
In the West, it's now common for politicians to shout Russian "fake news" when embarrassing facts
come out - as happened with Canada's new foreign minister hiding a Nazi family skeleton.
By Robert Parry
On Feb, 27, Consortiumnews.com published an article * describing misrepresentations by Canada's
new Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland about her Ukrainian maternal grandfather whom she has portrayed
as a hero who struggled "to return freedom and democracy to Ukraine" but left out that he was a Nazi
propagandist whose newspaper justified the slaughter of Jews.
Over the next week, the article entitled "A Nazi Skeleton in the Family Closet" by journalist
Arina Tsukanova (which I personally edited and fact-checked) circulated enough that Freeland was
asked about it by the Canadian news media. As often happens these days, Freeland chose not to tell
the truth but rather portrayed the article as part of a Russian propaganda and disinformation campaign.
Freeland told reporters, "I don't think it's a secret. American officials have publicly said,
and even [German Chancellor] Angela Merkel has publicly said, that there were efforts on the Russian
side to destabilize Western democracies, and I think it shouldn't come as a surprise if these same
efforts were used against Canada. I think that Canadians and indeed other Western countries should
be prepared for similar efforts to be directed at them."
Though Freeland did not comment directly on the truthfulness of our article, her office denied
that her grandfather was a Nazi collaborator.
Other leaders of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government joined in the counterattack. Citing
the danger of Russian disinformation, Public Safety Minister Ralph Goodale, said, "The situation
is obviously one where we need to be alert."
In an article on March 6, Canada's Globe and Mail also rallied to Freeland's defense claiming
that she was "being targeted by allegations in pro-Moscow websites that her maternal Ukrainian grandfather
was a Nazi collaborator."
The newspaper also reached out to other experts to add their denunciations of Consortiumnews.com
and other news sites that either reposted our story or ran a similar one.
"It is the continued Russian modus operandi that they have. Fake news, disinformation and targeting
different individuals," said Paul Grod, president of the Canadian Ukrainian Congress. "It is just
so outlandish when you hear some of these allegations – whether they are directed at minister Freeland
or others."
The Globe and Mail also quoted Ukraine's ambassador to Canada, Andriy Shevchenko, citing our supposedly
fake news as "another reason we should realize that Russia is waging a war against the free world.
It is not just about Ukraine."
The ambassador then offered some advice about standing up to the Russians and their disinformationists:
"I am absolutely sure they will seek new targets in the free world so I would encourage our Canadian
friends to be prepared for that, to stay strong and we will be happy to share our experience in how
to deal with all these information wars."
A Second-Day Story
The only problem with all these righteous condemnations was that the information about Freeland's
grandfather was true – and Freeland knew that it was true.
In a second-day story, The Globe and Mail had to revisit the issue, reporting that "Freeland knew
for more than two decades that her maternal Ukrainian grandfather was the chief editor of a Nazi
newspaper in occupied Poland that vilified Jews during the Second World War."
In other words, not only was our story accurate but Freeland knowingly launched a deceptive attack
on us and other news outlets to punish us for writing the truth.
And not only was our story correct but it was newsworthy, given Freeland's fierce support for
Ukrainian nationalism and her deep hatred of Russia. Canadians have a right to know what drives those
passions in their Foreign Minister. In this case, her worldview derived from her grandparents who
sided with Adolf Hitler and who fled to the West as the Soviet Red Army defeated the Nazis.
Yet, instead of fessing up and acknowledging these facts, Freeland chose to dissemble and slander
journalists who were doing their job. And the smears didn't entirely stop.
Even as the Globe and Mail admitted the reality about Freeland's grandfather, it continued to
disparage the journalists who had exposed the facts. The second line of the newspaper's second-day
article read: "Ms. Freeland's family history has become a target for Russian forces seeking to discredit
one of Canada's highly placed defenders of Ukraine." ...
Freeland knew her grandfather was editor of Nazi newspaper
Stories published in pro-Russian websites have said Ms.
Freeland's strong stand against Russian aggression in Ukraine
is linked to her grandfather's past.
East Ukraine [Russians therein] have as much right to
independence as Turks left behind in Kosovo.
When the Red
Army sets up a permanent [Camp Bonesteel] armed presence to
assure the minority are safe it might look a tiny fraction
like of the crimes of the US/NATO.
Early in the "occupation" of Ukraine Hitler turned down
the non Aryan volunteers, by D Day they were killing
Americans in Normandy.
In the case of Russian news I err on the side they are
correct compared to the NYT which tells every who could be
conned they "tell the neoliberal truth".
Imagine such a Democratic opinion maker having absorbed and
been overtaken by Cold War thinking, unable to be
self-reflective enough to understand the disdain of a people
that is being fostered, how damaging this can be, evidently
wishing a return to the fearful 1950s.
That such a
Democratic opinion maker has come to use the language of the
1950s to instill disdain for a people and spread fear in
those who would question or dissent from the prejudice
continues to be shocking and dismaying.
Stalinist pk etc...... Obama conned the US to 'give up liberty for safety' but his deep state and the baying media could not prevent
Trump.
The neoliberal media blizzard over the American Health Care Act is not about people "dying in the streets" nor [OMG] tax cuts
for people with too much power. It is red herring to preserve Obama's attack on the US constitution.
The media is still talking phony show trials over Trump and Putin while diminishing Sessions' draining the deep state swamp.
Health care does not matter; Obama's schemes to keep terror away destroyed the constitution do.
Revisiting the paradox of capital - Boz, Cubeddu, Obstfeld
They ignore the role of taxes in increasing savings.
The best way to increase savings is to tax worker income
and "save" it for them in infrastructure that repays their
"savings" with interest over time. And taxes plus tax dodges
and loopholes cause consumers to contribute savings that are
invested in factories and innovation capital that both pays
workers to work building capital so taxes are dodged, plus
drives down returns to capital resulting in workers getting
most of the revenue from product and service sales.
China is an example of an economy in transition which has
workers getting jobs from government mandates to build
capital that produce exports to pay for increased imports of
mostly raw materials, without providing the safety net to
eliminate the fear of returning to the poverty of farming.
The fear drives savings which is not destructive in the early
stage because it helps fund massive capital investment in
China, but eventually the amount of capital accrues to such a
high quantity that returns on capital pay savers nothing, and
no one wants to pay for more capital that will only go
bankrupt. The only solution is for Chinese workers to pay
Chinese workers for consumption. Factory economy workers must
stop consuming like hand to mouth farmers, or else the
economy will collapse and throw them back into hand to mouth
farm economy conditions. As Keynes pointed out in his
argument for government forcing savings going into building
capital with labor, mass thrift drives the thrifty into
poverty.
The economic charts, one in particular, shows the impact
of Clinton tax hikes and Bush tax cuts.
"This was a period of secularization of US colleges.
Businessmen were replacing clergymen on boards.
They were displaced by others more exclusively attuned to the
Gospel of Wealth.
For example, Professor Allen Eaton was fired from the
University of Oregon for successfully pushing a series of
characteristically Georgist measures: municipal ownership of
the Eugene waterworks; taxation of waterpower sites; direct
election of US Senators; keeping valuable State-owned
timberlands from being given to the Southern Pacific.
Elisha Andrews was forced from Brown University for
favoring populists George and Bryan.
Scott Nearing was fired in 1915 from the University of
Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvania Trustee Joseph Rosengarten explained that
"men holding teaching positions in the Wharton School
introduce there doctrines wholly at variance with those of
its founder and... talk wildly and in a manner entirely
inconsistent with Mr. Wharton's well-known views and in
defiance of the conservative opinions of men of affairs".
His best-known "variant idea" was opposing child labor.
Life under Seelye could be perilous for the truly scholarly.
In 1884, Seelye peremptorily fired one of John B. Clark's
colleagues, the homonymic geologist John Clarke, for
"heterodoxy".
Did plutocrats insure that favorable theories dominated?:
Classicals vs Neoclassicals: Tax and Rent
Posted on 8 January 2011
"At the university I attended, a few of the academics were
strongly influenced by Classical Political Economy,
especially that of Smith and Ricardo. Prior to my student
days, one of them had published a paper in the Cambridge
Journal of Economics entitled "On the origins of the term
'neoclassical'" (no free link available), which is quite well
known in heterodox circles.
In it, he argued that the 'classical' in the term
'neoclassical' is a misnomer and that neoclassical and
classical economics actually have little in common, despite
attempts by neoclassicals to claim Smith, in particular, as
their forefather.
The classical-influenced economists at my university happened
to belong to the Sraffian School. This school attempts to
synthesize Classical value and distribution with Keynesian
output and employment determination, and is also known for
its key role and victory in the Cambridge Capital
Controversy. The school is named after Piero Sraffa, whose
interpretation of Classical Political Economy, particularly
Ricardo's work, has been highly influential.
Sraffians are not the only modern-day economists
influenced by Smith and Ricardo. Another prominent example is
Michael Hudson.
In a recent interview (h/t to Tom Hickey), Hudson
discusses one big difference between the Classical economists
and the neoclassicals: their analysis of taxation as applied
to economic rent.
Hudson touches on a number of noteworthy points during the
interview. He draws attention to a historical correspondence
that would probably surprise many, between high top tax rates
and strong economic growth, and observes that the top rates
were high in the period prior to WWII.
Importantly, the focus of taxation in Classical Political
Economy, which Hudson argues influenced US government policy
in the late 1800s and much of the first half of the 1900s,
was on confiscating economic rents. These rents include
income that derives from ownership of assets that appreciate
in value merely because of the growth in national income
and/or improved public infrastructure, and not due to any
participation in the production process (they arise
especially in the real estate and financial sectors).
It is not mentioned in the interview, but profit, of
course, is also income that derives from the mere ownership
of assets – the means of production.
However, the classical economists were engaged in a class
war with rentiers, not capitalists.
It was Marx who drew this reasoning out to its logical
conclusion, and this probably goes a long way to explaining
why neoclassical theory, rather than being a continuation of
classical economics (as was often claimed once it was
established), was an escape into a different
conceptualization of a capitalist economy that sought to
reframe the distribution of income as the result of marginal
contributions (an attempt that failed and was the chief
target and theoretical casualty of the Cambridge Capital
Controversy).
Even so, there does remain a significant distinction
between profit, which relates to assets employed in the
production process, and economic rents. For this reason, Marx
also distinguished between these two categories of income and
spent a great deal of space in volume 3 of Capital analyzing
the various forms of surplus value, including different types
of rent.
Hudson goes on to stress that the taxation imposed in the
late 1800s and first half of the 1900s was highly
progressive. Initially only the top 1 percent of income
earners were required to submit tax returns. The purpose of
this was to keep taxes on wages and profit low to promote
price competitiveness against lower wage countries.
This can be contrasted with neo-liberal policies of today
which seem to be designed almost with the opposite intent: to
tax wage and profit income (and also consumption) but provide
loopholes or tax breaks for the recipients of economic rents.
Above all, Hudson distinguishes between what the classical
economists meant by the term "free market" and what that term
has come to mean in the neo-liberal period.
Hudson emphasizes that, for the classical economists,
"free market" meant a market unencumbered by rent-based
claims on income that would draw economic activity away from
income production and toward speculation.
The aim of the classical economists was to incentivize
production. This is a very different notion than the
neo-liberal one of labor-market "deregulation" (meaning
regulation in favor of employers over employees), which is
really just code for union smashing and an attack on real
wages, or the neo-liberal deregulation of financial markets,
which is a euphemism for enabling financial parasitism.
Hudson makes another observation in passing. The
observation is not central to his argument in the interview,
but is relevant to current debates over deficits and public
debt, and consistent with MMT.
He notes that immediately prior to the commencement of the
only extended period of high capitalist growth (WWII until
the late 1960s), the US population was not in debt, and in
fact had pent up savings from the war that it was waiting to
spend.
By little or no debt, Hudson clarifies that he means
little or no private debt. There was, of course, a large
public debt – larger as a percentage of GDP than the current
US government "debt".
This public debt did not matter, in spite of the familiar
opposition to deficits and public debt, the echoes of which
can be heard today, simply because the budget deficit shrinks
endogenously once private-sector activity and income growth
resume. This is precisely what happened in the immediate
postwar period.
Today, with the US government the monopoly issuer of its
own flexible exchange-rate fiat currency, public "debt" is –
or rather should be – even less of an issue. Unlike in the
immediate postwar period, the government is not subject to
the constraints of Bretton Woods or a similar
commodity-backed money system. It is free to utilize its
fiscal capacity to the extent necessary to restore full
employment.
Government "debt" is nothing other than the accumulated
net financial wealth of the non-government.
Once the non-government is ready to spend, income growth
will deliver stronger revenues, reducing the deficit. But the
private sector needs to have its debt under control before it
will resume spending at levels sufficient to sustain strong
economic growth.
In addition to the absence of significant private debt at
the end of WWII, there were other factors that contributed to
the strong growth of the immediate postwar period, including
Keynesian demand-management policies, a progressive tax
system, and significant financial regulation.
All these beneficial features of the economy were
gradually undermined, and then exposed to outright attack
from the 1970s onwards.
Hudson discusses how, over time, much of the progressivity
in the tax system was removed, paving the way for the
construction of the inequitable and anti-productive monster
of today.
Keynesian demand-management policies were also largely
eschewed throughout the neo-liberal era on the basis of an
opportunistic misinterpretation of the stagflation of the
1970s. All this took place alongside deregulation of the
financial sector and an aggressive dismantling of worker
employment protections.
The result of this neo-liberal policy mix was an
increasing financialization and "rentification" of the
economy, widening income inequality, and an adherence to
fiscal austerity that directly corresponded, as a matter of
accounting, to an unsustainable build up in the only US debt
that matters – private debt – and culminated in the Global
Financial Crisis and Great Recession.
If the aim is to restore sustainable growth under
capitalism (which is not my preferred social system, but
presumably the one commanding the allegience of
policymakers), the insights obtained from the classical
economists in conjunction with the lessons of the postwar
period would seem to suggest some combination of the
following policy responses: tighter regulations of
speculative activities; a more steeply progressive tax system
targeted at the confiscation of economic rents and the
incentivization of production and consumption; stronger
worker protections; and the abandonment of the faulty
construct of a 'government budget constraint' and a return to
deficit expenditure sufficient to underpin non-government net
saving and full employment.
But the actual policy response has instead been to
manipulate financial markets to engineer a massive transfer
of wealth to the rentiers and exacerbate income and wealth
inequality; to continue with the approach of taxing wage and
profit income along with consumption rather than economic
rents; and possibly even to revert foolishly to austerity
while the private sector remains deeply indebted.
[Were they enticed by the allure of science and
mathematics?]:
Because I said so: the persistence of
mainstream policy advice
Nathaniel Cline Kirsten Ford Matías Vernengo
Abstract:
"The current global crisis has shown the limitations of
the mainstream approach.
We trace the origins of the limitations of the dominant
neoclassical views to the capital debates and to the rise to
dominance of intertemporal general equilibrium.
The limited use of the Arrow-Debreu model, which became
dominant after the capital debates, in terms of policymaking,
is central to understand the persistence of policy guided by
the aggregative model.
We use the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as a case
study of this perplexing continuity of policy advice.
Given our survey, we conclude that even though the economy
is in the midst of the worst capitalist crisis since the
Great Depression, a significant paradigmatic shift in
economics is extraordinarily unlikely."
"Economists have frequently argued in favor of laissez
faire policy, and the reasons underpinning this position have
more often than not been associated to their ideological
perspective.
Whenever the classical authors defended the free market,
however, it was never under the presumption that it would
lead to full utilization of resources or an equitable
distribution of income. The free market was typically
defended as an instrument of modernization, that is, an
institutional innovation of the rising bourgeoisie against
feudal obstacles to economic development.
It was only with the rise of the neoclassical paradigm
that the free market came to be considered a mechanism for
the determination of income shares of the same factors of
production and equated to efficiency in the use of factors of
production.
With this, the free market ceased to be defended as an
instrument of modernization, and instead hailed as a superior
institution in itself.
The Great Depression and the Keynesian Revolution sapped
the faith in free market policies, but did not attack the
core ideas behind the marginalist views of market efficiency.
The attack on the main tenets of neoclassical economics
that started with the Keynesian Revolution in the 1930s and
culminated with the capital debates in the 1960s, showed the
logical limitations of the marginalist approach, and forced
the mainstream into a defensive position.
With the abandonment of the old notion of long run
equilibrium, and the adoption of intertemporal equilibrium,
the efficiency of markets was not seen as the result of the
persistent forces of the economy.
If nothing else, the new notion of equilibrium provided a
logically coherent notion of market efficiency.
Absent solid theoretical foundation, and, oftentimes,
empirical support, the persistence of laissez-faire policy
could at least be anchored to the authority of intertemporal
equilibrium.
The limitations of such a strategy have become
increasingly evident.
The duplicity of a profession that teaches models known to
be logically incorrect, and uses these very models for policy
analysis – even when the actual outcomes do not correspond to
the expected results according to the prescription – is hard
to justify.
The role of the social conflicts of the 1960s, the
inflation of the 1970s, and the rise of several corporate
institutions in the rise of pro-market policies have been
extensively analyzed.
However, the role of the changing attitudes within the
economics profession have seldom emphasized the incisive
effect that the capital debates had in promoting the revival
of the defense of free markets for their own sake.
"The current global crisis has shown the limitations of
the pro-market liberalizing policies of the last few decades,
but from our perspective, it will not be sufficient to
promote a meaningful revision of the foundations of economic
analysis, and the timidity of the IMF rethinking of its
policy stance is a good example of what to expect.
"In the meantime, learning economics at least remains, as
Joan Robinson caustically put it, the best way to avoid being
deceived by economists.
Mainstream (neoclassical) economics originated as a reaction
and defense to the progressive reforms of the late 1800's.
It was sponsored and funded by plutocrats that endowed
private universities like Chicago, Columbia, etc.
Neoclassical economists selected specific mathematic
techniques to convince that free, competitive markets were
natural, efficient and optimal.
When their mathematics was shown to be defective, they
ignored the proof, revised their assumptions to evade or
developed new mathematics that, while not related to the real
world, could at least not be shown to be faulty.
It appears that neoclassical economists are basically
intellectual hit-men for the plutocracy.
If an economist writes a column in MSM, is employed at the
Fed, ECB, IMF, World Bank, or is a professor at an 'elite",
private university - chances are s/he is a neoclassicist and
a hit-wo/man.
Romer says they want to stay in the club, or the church:
Posted on
June 11, 2015
Euler's Theorem Denialism
Paul Romer
The U.S. Department of Energy employs physics Ph.D.s to
manage our nuclear weapons. How would you feel if some of
them wrote blog posts saying that it is possible to build a
perpetual motion machine?
What if they did this to signal their loyalty to some club
of physicists? Wouldn't you wonder why membership in this
club was important enough get them say that they do not
believe the second law of thermodynamics? And what kind of
physics club would use an endorsement of the perpetual motion
machine as a loyalty oath?
In a recent post, David Andolfatto, who is a Vice
President at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, gives a
brazen display of mathiness–brazen because he denies Euler's
theorem, which for economists is about the same as denying
the second law of thermodynamics is for physicists.
The type of mathiness that is hardest to root out is the
opaque mathiness illustrated by Lucas (2009). It combines
math that is hard to understand with verbal claims that can
be shown to be misleading, but only after a careful analysis
of the math.
By taking advantage of ambiguity and misdirection, its
verbal claims can mislead without saying anything that is
actually false.
Andolfatto's brazen mathiness involves a verbal statement
about a mathematical model that flies in the face of
an impossibility theorem. No model can do what he claims his
does. No model can have a competitive equilibrium with
price-taking behavior and partially excludable nonrival
goods.
If you are not an economist, this would be a model in which
someone who has a monopoly on an idea can charge for its use,
but somehow is unable to influence the price that users have
to pay, which should sound implausible at least.
If you are an economist, you know that there is a very
simple argument based on Euler's theorem that proves this
type of model is impossible. The proof goes back a long way.
I know that Karl Shell invoked it in the late 1960s. I
restated it in the AER article of mine that Andolfatto
quotes, so it was fresh in his memory. Dietz Vollrath has a
recent post that works through the logic again.
In its most general form, the proof relies on a step that
invokes a fact about production processes: If you double all
the rival inputs (the inputs you can touch or stub your toe
on) you double the output. Some economists try to evade the
theorem by denying the possibility of replication.
But Andolfatto's paper makes the required assumption about
production openly–constant returns to scale in rival inputs.
So he's got no wriggle room. I can't for the life of me see
how Andolfatto thinks he can evade Euler's theorem.
It is certainly possible that he is confused. But if you were
confused, wouldn't you try to understand the proof that says
what you want to claim has to be false before you go ahead
and claim it anyway?
So the only conjecture that makes sense to me is that this
is part of being in the club. But if so, there is an
interesting differentiation of roles by status. Lucas knows a
proof when he sees one and is careful to avoid getting caught
saying something that is provably false. He sticks to the
Marshallian framework where nonrival goods are nonexcludable.
Prescott, in his paper with McGrattan (AER 2010) least tries
to cover his tracks by inserting his imaginary input,
location. Then he can simply assert that it does not get
compensation and he can take the income that Euler's Theorem
allocates to location and transfer it to his nonrival inputs.
From Minnesotta types who are so preachy about avoiding free
parameters, you have to admire the audacity of adding an
entirely free variable. But Prescott, like Lucas, he is
careful not to deny Euler's Theorem.
But the next level down in the hierarchy, followers like
Boldrin and Levine are willing to just embarrass themselves:
It is widely believed that competitive equilibrium always
results in prices equal to marginal cost. Hence the belief
that competition is inconsistent with innovation. However
widespread this belief may be, it is not correct. It is true
only in the absence of capacity constraints, (2008, p. 436)
They say they can ignore Euler's Theorem, because in their
bizarro version of a competitive equilibrium, prices for
inputs do not equal marginal products.
But instead of presenting a competitive equilibrium of
this type, they present a model* with an innovator who turns
out to have market power. Their solution? The innovator has
to be a price taker because they say so:
Making the initial single innovator behave competitively
even in the very first period may be a source of
misunderstanding. Since, by necessity, she has a monopoly in
the initial period, why do we not take account of her
incentive to restrict the initial supply ? (Boldrin and
Levine, 2008, p. 438)
So in the analogy from physics, Boldrin and Levine say that
it is possible to build a perpetual motion machine, but to
their credit, at the last moment they back off and invoke the
can-opener joke: "Well we haven't actually built a perpetual
motion machine, so let's just assume that we have one." So
what to make of Andolfatto, who goes all in: "I built one
back in 1999 when I was in graduate school."
It is as if the prophets who lead the Mormon Church never
have to say anything specific about where the Book of Mormon
comes from. Officials at the next level down have to say that
Joseph Smith transcribed it from golden plates that he found
in upstate New York. Regular church members have to say that
it is a literal fact that the gold plates were written in 400
AD by Mormon and Moroni, using a script called reformed
Egyptian, and were held together in a D-ring binder.
The provably false statements that economists like
Andolfatto make (and he is certainly not alone) may be more
than mere signals. They might be an irreversible commitment
to stay at an institution where his club is already in
control because they prevents someone from ever being
employable at a competitive institution where logic is still
valued.
Having a strong affiliation with other members of a
religion can be a good thing, so I would not be bothered to
learn that some of our nuclear physicists are Mormons. But I
would be worried to learn that some of them were members of
the perpetual motion club. And I am worried that some
outposts of the Fed have been permanently colonized by
economists who are on the record as Euler's-Theorem-deniers.
That's good thank you. I am thinking along the same lines:
In some way unregulated finance acts as cancer cells in human
body (while this analogy is definitely superficial it might
be stimulating for thinking about neoliberalism):
1. Uncontrollable growth detached from real economics
("casino capitalism" with its proliferation of hedge funds,
private equity firms, derivatives, credit default swaps and
similar instruments).
2. Suppression of immune system so that this
uncontrollable growth should not be checked (aka
deregulation, capture of economics departments, an army of
neoliberal think tanks)
3. Like cancel creates a blood network to stimulate its
own growth, finance also diverts lion share of resource in
the economy for its own consumption -- casino consumption.
4. Very difficult to fight and can reoccur if treatment
was insufficient or ineffective.
The Traditional analogy is to a parasite,
particularly the type that invades the brain of the host and
tricks the host into feeding the parasite ahead of itself,
even if the host starves itself to death in the process.
Strikes me that if your economic theory cannot deal with
political engagement by corporations, you need to scrap your
economic theory. Crony capitalism is the only sort that has
ever existed and corporations have always engaged in politics
to their own benefit.
While I agree with
you, the statement
that "Crony capitalism
is the only sort that
has ever existed"
might not be
completely true.
There were short
historical periods of
"deviations".
Napoleonic France
and Early New Deal
might well be
considered as
temporary departures
from crony capitalism
model.
Of source later
everything "returned
to normal", but what
was accomplished
initially was
definitely not crony
capitalism. Especially
legislation.
The New Deal was
probably one of the
few successful attempt
in history to reign on
financial sector.
Napoleon was also
extremely suspicious
of financial sector
(which is actually
typical for any
nationalist who just
got political power;
corruption comes later
on)
The New Deal
relegated financial
sector to the
secondary roles for
the next 30 years or
so. Only in 70th they
became reckless again.
Amazing achievement...
Also some
industries, especially
at early stages are
definitely "less
crony" then others. IT
industry probably such
an area after the
introduction of IBM
PCs (August 12, 1981)
till the dot-com boom.
As I have pointed out several times, the corporate form with
its very powerful advantage of limited liability is nothing
more than a license granted by the Sovereign. Once upon a
time it was a very sparingly granted privilege.
So, at a
very fundamental level I wonder if we have reached a point
where it should be granted at all - certainly beyond the
first 10 years of corporate existence.
The essence of the neo-classical theory is the constraint on
choice imposed by given and widely shared technology and
competitive markets for resources and vendors. Political
engagement derives from and is focused on seeking
monopolistic power. The various theories of monopolistic
competition are instructive but fall far short of the
standard sought by neoclassical theory....
-- Joseph Bower
[ Then where does an economist go from here? This is
fascinating. ]
There has been extensive writing about the power and scope of
corporations going back at least to Edward Mason and Carl Kaysen. In a
chapter I wrote,1) I explored the role of large corporations in terms
of their impact on factors other than the product market. Echoing
Kaysen I emphasized location, employment, product line choices,
vendors that because of their scale and scope give firms powers far
beyond those conceived in the neo-classical model and unconstrained by
traditional notions of price competition. The neo-classical model
simply does not comprehend the modern corporation.
But if we are talking about a theory carefully constructed on a set of
axioms, the theory really can't consider political engagements. The
essence of the neo-classical theory is the constraint on choice
imposed by given and widely shared technology and competitive markets
for resources and vendors. Political engagement derives from and is
focused on seeking monopolistic power. The various theories of
monopolistic competition are instructive but fall far short of the
standard sought by neoclassical theory. ...
Monopoly power? I thought 'libruls' didn't about monopoly
power! After all, it is of absolutely no concern to them that
the Fed colludes with the Wall Street banking cartel to
ration credit and low interest rates to their wealthy
clientele, who use the money to speculate, not make
productive investments.
Political Engagement by Corporations Derives from and is
Focused on Seeking Monopolistic Power
-- Joseph Bower
[ While this assertion seems obvious, how to construct a
countervailing response is surely not obvious though the need
seems to have been growing especially since labor unions lost
significance influence in the 1980s. ]
If that is what gets you to sleep at night keep deluding
yourself. Me thinks if you had your way corporate political
spending would be banned but corporate political spending by
organizations more equal than others - unions - would be
acceptable.
Strikes me that if your economic theory cannot deal with
political engagement by corporations, you need to scrap your
economic theory. Crony capitalism is the only sort that has
ever existed and corporations have always engaged in politics
to their own benefit.
As I have pointed out several times, the corporate form with
its very powerful advantage of limited liability is nothing
more than a license granted by the Sovereign. Once upon a
time it was a very sparingly granted privilege.
So, at a
very fundamental level I wonder if we have reached a point
where it should be granted at all - certainly beyond the
first 10 years of corporate existence.
Regulatory capture is an economic theory. The bread and
butter of this excellent blog. Now if you mean the economic
theory taught by Greg Mankiw in his overpriced books - yea,
they are weak narrow subsets of what actual economics do.
That would seem about right. Scrap it. Or at least abandon
mathematical pretense.
The situation in
"But if we are talking about a theory carefully
constructed on a set of axioms, the theory really can't
consider political engagements."
seems to be equivalent to a geometry where some class of
objects, say regular polygons, are empowered with the free
will to change the postulates of the geometry in mid-proof.
Without recognizing sudden rules changes, it seems
economic proofs go astray.
The really interesting stuff looks like it's in the
postulate changing and feedback business anyway.
"The various theories of monopolistic competition are
instructive but fall far short of the standard sought by
neoclassical theory."
I'm curious what he means by the
"standard sought by neoclassical theory". Joan Robinson
coined 'monopolistic competition' and her exposition of the
implications of this concept were well received by even
neoclassical types.
Not to criticize as his research is important. But let's
remember the contributions of the first great woman
economist.
The essence of the neo-classical theory is the constraint on
choice imposed by given and widely shared technology and
competitive markets for resources and vendors. Political
engagement derives from and is focused on seeking
monopolistic power. The various theories of monopolistic
competition are instructive but fall far short of the
standard sought by neoclassical theory....
-- Joseph Bower
[ Then where does an economist go from here? This is
fascinating. ]
That's not so much about Eurocentric modernism as America-centric neoliberalism
Notable quotes:
"... He first caught the scent that something was off as an economics student in India, wondering why, despite his mastery of the mathematics and technology of the discipline, the logic always escaped him. Then one day he had an epiphany: the whole thing was "cockeyed from start to finish." To his amazement, his best teachers agreed. "Then why are we studying economics?" demanded the pupil. "To protect ourselves from the lies of economists," replied the great economist Joan Robinson. ..."
"... Kanth realized that people are not at all like Adam Smith's homo economicus , a narrowly self-interested agent trucking and bartering through life. Smith had turned the human race - a species capable of wondrous caring, creativity, and conviviality - into a nasty horde of instinctive materialists: a society of hustlers. ..."
"... how this way of thinking took hold of us, and how it delivered a society which is essentially asocial - one in which everybody sees everybody else as a means to their own private ends. ..."
"... he argues, consigned us to an endless and exhausting Hobbesian competition. For every expansion of the market, we found our social space shrunk and our natural environment spoiled. For every benefit we received, there came a new way to pit us against each other. Have the costs become too high? ..."
"... "That's our big dream," says Kanth. "Everyone and everything is a stepping stone to our personal glorification." When others get in our way, we end up with a grim take on life described succinctly by Jean Paul Sartre: "Hell is other people." ..."
"... Mr. Kanth makes some valid points, but his criticism of the European Enlightenment is mistaken. Many of the horrors of modernity had their origins in the Counter-Enlightenment and in the Church Inquisitions, not the Enlightenment. The modern police state is a refinement of and a descendant of the struggles against heresy. ..."
"... Agreed. Parramore's phrase 'history of a set of bad ideas' does seem a bit harsh for a description of the Enlightenment. ..."
"... Like most big ideas, the problem isn't with the original idea so much as the corruption of it over the years as it's put into practice. Massive reform is necessary for sure but I'll take the Enlightenment over nasty, brutish, and short any day. ..."
"... I read somewhere that some Native Americans looking down on the ruins of San Fransisco after the great quake of 1906, thought that at last the crazy white people would realize the folly of their ways, and become normal humans. ..."
"... So they were amazed that before the ruins even stopped smoking, the crazy white people, ignoring the obvious displeasure of the Great Spirit, were busy rebuilding the same mess that had just been destroyed. ..."
"... I have a strong suspicion that evil empires do not come to their senses, rather, one way or another, they get flattened. ..."
"... I can remember arguing over this in my philosophy classes way back in the 80's – that Objectivism and the Enlightenment were two sides of the same coin, and that those Enlightenment writers were writing tomes to justify their own greed and prejudices, while cloaking their greed and prejudices in "morality". ..."
"... At the time (I was young) it seemed to me that the Enlightenment was an attempt to destroy the basis of Jesus's and Buddha's philosophy – that the most moral position of humanity was to care for its members, just as clans, tribes, families, and other human societies did. ..."
"... "They didn't accomplish much" meaning they lost militarily to cultures with more aggression and better weapons. ..."
"... It seems to me that humans, as hierarchical mammals, really do have a desire to compete with each other for status and respect. The trouble is in organizing all of society around this one struggle, forcing everyone into explicit competition and making the stakes too high. When the losers can't afford to buy food, when they and their little children live on the street and die in the cold, when their kids can never compete on an equal field to improve their own status, things have gone too far. And in addition to material needs, humans also have a need for independence, an escape from being constantly ordered around by the winners and under someone else's thumb. ..."
"... Note, as an aside, how granting economic rights to outgroups like women and Blacks brought them into the same market competition. Well, a lot of men don't want to compete with women for status. They want to compete with each other. The more competitors you add the harder it is to win. But when all resources ..."
"... I think you're right about that and if we do ever manage to abolish capitalism and develop a less violent and more egalitarian society, there will need to be an outlet for that innate desire. I propose hockey. Beats starting a war . ..."
"... When President Trump defeated his rival in the last election, among the many ways in which the event was captured was a representation of the President as Perseus carrying the head of Medusa (Clinton) in his outstretched left hand. Medusa was a monster gorgon of the Greek mythology; a representation in this case by Clinton (a woman) who dared to take real power in this essentially male world and silenced for trying to participate in the public discourse (election). ..."
"... The point is that what passes as Modernism has never entered modern life. In support of my proposition I cite an encounter between a journalist and Mahatma Gandhi in 1930s: The journalist asked Gandhi, "Mr. Gandhi, what is your opinion of the western civilization?" Gandhi replied instantaneously "It would be a good idea". ..."
"... I think he's right about Eurocentric modernism being incompatible with human civilization. But it can't be just an evolutionary accident that civilization is so aggressive. It served a purpose. We refer to it as 'survival'. I used to tell my daughter not to make fun of those 'dorky little boys' too much because they all had a way of growing up to be very nice men. And I told her women are the reason we have all survived, but men have made it so much easier! And etc. ..."
"... I believe that one element of modern life that should be removed forever is the infinite search for maximizing profits. ..."
"... On more than one occasion I've compared the rent-seeking profit mongers to Molocks that cultivate us milder Eloi and cannabalize us. ..."
"... But the economics profession's problem isn't "blind faith in science." It's a massive failure to apply the scientific method, combined with an expectation that we all put our blind faith in THEM anyway. ..."
"... Essentially a post-modern critique of modernism without all the jargon of p-m critical theory (yay!!). I don't think we have enough data from the pre-modern huddling societies to determine if that's how we want to live. Yes, my boss at work exploits me, but on the other hand, I can walk into an air-conditioned supermarket and survey row after row of steaks that I can afford to buy. I love to drive cars. The cinema is enchanting. Dying of a plague is a very remote possibility. We could give it all up, but there's no guarantee our lives would be richer or fuller–just different, at best. ..."
"... Just how dark were the Dark Ages? Or, to borrow Churchill's phrase, how dark would a NEW Dark Age be? ..."
"... Two possibles: the cargo cult children of Mad Max: Beyond the Thunderdome, or the society depicted in Aldous Huxley's Ape and Essence. At least the Church in Rome and Constantinople provided some kind of lifeline of civilization during the collapse of the Roman Empire. What similar institution have we now? ..."
"... Sounds like bog-standard post-modernist tosh to me, just without the obscure ProfSpeak jargon that usually accompanies it. I fail to see how this is helpful. ..."
"... The only thing missing in this post is Bambi. Of course the Bushmen would kill Bambi dead with spears and roast her flesh over a fire. So would we, actually. hmmmm. ..."
"... I agree dude is right that the values now unraveling (democracy, pluralism, individualism, free speech, international-ism (in both the good and bad ways)) go all the way back to that time. ..."
"... But this article is a perfect example of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Surely none of the third world cultures he praises got where they are by totally throwing out previous systems, the good parts and bad, every time they faced a crisis. ..."
"... IMO the problem is enlightenment values have been hollowed out, narrowed to only those superficial aspects of those values which benefit the marketplace. Like how real food got turned into Mosanto fast-food so gradually, nobody noticed that the nutrients are missing. ..."
"... Adam Smith had some good points that have been lost along the way, namely penalizing rent seeking. ..."
"... Smith has been seriously misrepresented. The Theory of Moral Sentiments shows a very different side to that presented by those who selectively quote from The Wealth of Nations. ..."
"... It's hard to tell from the rather incoherent summary of what looks like an incoherent argument, but the "everything went wrong after the Enlightenment" meme has been circulating for ages. It was speared pretty effectively by Domenico Losurdo in "War and Revolution" some years ago. The author seems to be jumbling all sorts of arguments together, some valid and some not, but the valid arguments are in general criticisms of liberalism, which is not the same of the Enlightenment. ..."
"... This is a very good point, as the Enlightenment was not merely a straight line connection to the blight of NeoLiberalism ..."
"... The naked embrace of selfishness, while never absent over these centuries, did have countervailing currents and forces with which to contend that were sometimes able to at least minimize the damage. But more recently, with supposedly scientific NeoLiberal economic thought sweeping the field throughout much of the first world, and with the overall decline of religious and moral systems as a counterpoise, things have reached an unlovely pass. ..."
"... homo economicus ..."
"... For further reading, I strongly recommend John Ralston Saul's "Voltaire's Bastards". ..."
"... I think that people who are interested in how the Enlightenment may or may not have contributed to the problems of modernity would do well to read Enemies of the Enlightenment: The French Counter-Enlightenment and the Making of Modernity , by Darrin McMahon. Another book of value is The Enlightenment: And Why It Still Matters , by Anthony Pagden. ..."
"... I should have mentioned that the full title is "Voltaire's Bastards: The Dictatorship of Reason in the West". ..."
Across the globe, a collective freak-out spanning the whole political system is picking up steam
with every new "surprise" election, rush of tormented souls across borders, and tweet from the star
of America's great unreality show, Donald Trump.
But what exactly is the force that seems to be pushing us towards Armageddon? Is it capitalism
gone wild? Globalization? Political corruption? Techno-nightmares?
Rajani Kanth, a political economist, social thinker, and poet , goes beyond any of these
explanations for the answer. In his view, what's throwing most of us off kilter - whether we think
of ourselves as on the left or right, capitalist or socialist -was birthed 400 years ago during the
period of the Enlightenment. It's a set of assumptions, a particular way of looking at the world
that pushed out previous modes of existence, many quite ancient and time-tested, and eventually rose
to dominate the world in its Anglo-American form.
We're taught to think of the Enlightenment as the blessed end to the Dark Ages, a splendid blossoming
of human reason. But what if instead of bringing us to a better world, some of this period's key
ideas ended up producing something even darker?
Kanth argues that this framework, which he calls Eurocentric modernism, is collapsing, and unless
we understand why and how it has distorted our reality, we might just end up burnt to a crisp as
this misanthropic Death Star starts to bulge and blaze in its dying throes.
A Mass Incarceration of Humanity
Kanth's latest book, Farewell to Modernism: On Human Devolution in the Twenty-First Century , tells the history
of a set of bad ideas. He first caught the scent that something was off as an economics student
in India, wondering why, despite his mastery of the mathematics and technology of the discipline,
the logic always escaped him. Then one day he had an epiphany: the whole thing was "cockeyed from
start to finish." To his amazement, his best teachers agreed. "Then why are we studying economics?"
demanded the pupil. "To protect ourselves from the lies of economists," replied the great economist
Joan Robinson.
Kanth realized that people are not at all like Adam Smith's homo economicus , a narrowly
self-interested agent trucking and bartering through life. Smith had turned the human race - a species
capable of wondrous caring, creativity, and conviviality - into a nasty horde of instinctive materialists:
a society of hustlers.
Using his training in history and cultural theory, Kanth dedicated himself to investigating
how this way of thinking took hold of us, and how it delivered a society which is essentially
asocial - one in which everybody sees everybody else as a means to their own private ends. Eurocentric
modernism, he argues, consigned us to an endless and exhausting Hobbesian competition. For every
expansion of the market, we found our social space shrunk and our natural environment spoiled. For
every benefit we received, there came a new way to pit us against each other. Have the costs become
too high?
The Creed of Capture
The Eurocentric modernist program, according to Kanth, has four planks: a blind faith in science;
a self-serving belief in progress; rampant materialism; and a penchant for using state violence to
achieve its ends. In a nutshell, it's a habit of placing individual self-interest above the welfare
of community and society.
To illustrate one of its signature follies, Kanth refers to that great Hollywood ode to the Western
spirit, "The Sound of Music." Early in the film, the Mother Superior bursts into song, calling on
the nun Maria to "climb every mountain, ford every stream."
Sounds exhilarating, but to what end? Why exactly do we need to ford every stream? From the Eurocentric
modernist viewpoint, Kanth says, the answer is not so innocent: we secretly do it so that we can
say to ourselves, "Look, I achieved something that's beyond the reach of somebody else." Hooray for
me!
"That's our big dream," says Kanth. "Everyone and everything is a stepping stone to our personal
glorification." When others get in our way, we end up with a grim take on life described succinctly
by Jean Paul Sartre: "Hell is other people."
Sounds bad, but didn't Eurocentric modernism also give us our great democratic ideals of equality
and liberty to elevate and protect us?
Maybe these notions are not really our salvation, suggests Kanth. He notes that when we replace
the vital ties of kinship and community with abstract contractual relations, or when we find that
the only sanctioned paths in life are that of consumer or producer, we become alienated and depressed
in spirit. Abstract rights like liberty and equality turn out to be rather cold comfort. These ideas,
however lofty, may not get at the most basic human wants and needs. .
... ... ...
Kanth, like many, senses that a global financial crisis, or some other equivalent catastrophe,
like war or natural disaster, may soon produce painful and seismic economic and political disruptions.
Perhaps only then will human nature reassert itself as we come to rediscover the crucial nexus of
reciprocities that is our real heritage. That's what will enable us to survive.
"The Eurocentric modernist program, according to Kanth, has four planks: a blind faith in science;
a self-serving belief in progress; rampant materialism; and a penchant for using state violence
to achieve its ends. In a nutshell, it's a habit of placing individual self-interest above the
welfare of community and society."
Kanth hasn't dealt much with the wild skepticism of Enlightenment and modernist thinkers: That
would put a strain on such simplistic thinking. He's never heard of Kant or Rousseau? Pascal?
He's never even read Matthew Arnold's "Dover Beach"? Dickens? A speech by Abraham Lincoln? The
novels of Jane Austen? Maybe some articles by Antonio Gramsci? The Leopard by Tomasi di Lampedusa?
Anything about Einstein? Or even Freud for that matter? Looked at a painting or etching or work
in ceramic by Picasso?
Just because economics has devolved into looting and excuse-making for looting isn't a critique
of the cultural and scientific flowering that were part of the Enlightenment and Modernism. Are
we really supposed to think that Milton Friedman and his delusions have destroyed all aspects
of the enormous changes since 1600 or so? And I, for one, don't want to backslide into the Baroque–when
states used their power for religious wars so virulent that Silesia and Alsace were depopulated.
Alienation is not the name of a river in Egypt BTW, Did any of your examples lead to anything
other than this?
The sum of individuals adds up to the bizarre creature we call "culture." A flower in the air,
to be sure.
They didn't even have food delivery! This post isn't the best evah in the history of NC - I
mean it shouldn't be censored or taken down or anything and everybody has a right to an opinion,
but "Oy Vey what a shock to a reader's delicate intellectual sensibilities."
You wonder if it's Beer Goggles that are being looked through or if this is a case of transference
and projection. The fact that the post author is a poet raises suspicion, since they aren't the
most reliable sources when it come so sober factual analysis.
Mr. Kanth makes some valid points, but his criticism of the European Enlightenment is mistaken.
Many of the horrors of modernity had their origins in the Counter-Enlightenment and in the Church
Inquisitions, not the Enlightenment. The modern police state is a refinement of and a descendant
of the struggles against heresy.
If one is going to criticize societies for lacking "moral economies", it's not just the European
(and American) based societies that need to be targeted. Other societies have deep failures that
extend back for millennia, such as the caste system of India.
Agreed. Parramore's phrase 'history of a set of bad ideas' does seem a bit harsh for a
description of the Enlightenment.
Been a while since I read Candide , but the end where he meets the world famous sage
and asks for the secret of happiness in a terrible world only to be told 'Tend your own garden'
and then having the gate slammed in his face has always stuck with me.
You could interpret that to mean isolate yourself from your fellow human beings and just look
out for yourself, but I don't think that's what Voltaire was getting at.
Like most big ideas, the problem isn't with the original idea so much as the corruption
of it over the years as it's put into practice. Massive reform is necessary for sure but I'll
take the Enlightenment over nasty, brutish, and short any day.
Perhaps, beyond anthropology, there are lessons in evolutionary biology. Individual humans
are fairly weak animals. Our ancestors were obligated to "huddle" to survive, or as Richard Dawkins
might suggest, huddling, banding together in families and groups, was an evolutionarily successful
strategy. Those well adapted to communal living were more likely to survive, so that tendency
was selected for. However, "cheaters" can also survive. That is, it is not uncommon in the natural
world to find individuals and groups of individuals who cheat the group – expend less energy to
reproduce, such as male sunfish that display the secondary sexual characteristics of females,
so are not driven off by nest building males, make a mad dash in to fertilize eggs when a real
female shows up, but provides no protection for the young – the adult male does that. In human
culture, there are also cheaters, those who provide little to the larger society, yet reap a disproportionate
level of resources.
So, learning more of our cultural roots and adopting positive measures for social cohesion
is a good idea, but much like Jesus' view that the poor will always be with us, cheaters, from
banksters to dictators, will too.
As Kanth sees it, most of our utopian visions carry on the errors and limitations born of
a misguided view of human nature. That's why communism, as it was practiced in the Soviet Union
and elsewhere, projected a materialist perspective on progress while ignoring the natural human
instinct for autonomy- the ability to decide for ourselves where to go and what to say and
create. On flip side, capitalism runs against our instinct to trust and take care of each other.
I think this paragraph speaks volumes for transitioning to a society with a BGI with libertarian
socialist leanings. Let people be free to create what they are passionate about while allowing
humans to express their innate desire to care for one another without it signifying weakness or
at their time own personal expense. I don't think this approach necessarily precludes rockets
to Mars either. The engineers who are passionate will still get together and build one. It may
take a little longer if they can't convince others to help but hopefully this will foster more
cooperative approaches and less viewing of other humans as consumables.
Libertarianism and libertarian socialism are two different things. Libertarianism is a less
authoritative conservatism while libertarian socialism is a less authoritative social democracy.
Think Chomsky, not Ron Paul. Or think of it as a more relaxed Bernie who thinks things should
be done on a smaller, more local scale.
Kanth, like many, senses that a global financial crisis, or some other equivalent catastrophe,
like war or natural disaster, may soon produce painful and seismic economic and political disruptions.
Perhaps only then will human nature reassert itself as we come to rediscover the crucial nexus
of reciprocities that is our real heritage. That's what will enable us to survive.
I read somewhere that some Native Americans looking down on the ruins of San Fransisco
after the great quake of 1906, thought that at last the crazy white people would realize the folly
of their ways, and become normal humans.
So they were amazed that before the ruins even stopped smoking, the crazy white people,
ignoring the obvious displeasure of the Great Spirit, were busy rebuilding the same mess that
had just been destroyed.
I have a strong suspicion that evil empires do not come to their senses, rather, one way
or another, they get flattened.
I can remember arguing over this in my philosophy classes way back in the 80's – that Objectivism
and the Enlightenment were two sides of the same coin, and that those Enlightenment writers were
writing tomes to justify their own greed and prejudices, while cloaking their greed and prejudices
in "morality".
At the time (I was young) it seemed to me that the Enlightenment was an attempt to destroy
the basis of Jesus's and Buddha's philosophy – that the most moral position of humanity was to
care for its members, just as clans, tribes, families, and other human societies did.
The most frequent response from professors and classmates to my thesis? But those clans, tribes,
families, etc., didn't accomplish much, did they? As if the only reason for humanity's existence
was to compete against itself
Needless to say, I didn't stick with Philosophy ..
And we need new syntheses, at which this is an attempt.
It's not a stretch to say the trend since the renaissance has been to exalt the individual.
Kanth is aiming for a communitarian philosophy. An interesting departure point for discussion.
I don't see what people find so offensive.
"They didn't accomplish much" meaning they lost militarily to cultures with more aggression
and better weapons.
It seems to me that humans, as hierarchical mammals, really do have a desire to compete
with each other for status and respect. The trouble is in organizing all of society around this
one struggle, forcing everyone into explicit competition and making the stakes too high. When
the losers can't afford to buy food, when they and their little children live on the street and
die in the cold, when their kids can never compete on an equal field to improve their own status,
things have gone too far. And in addition to material needs, humans also have a need for independence,
an escape from being constantly ordered around by the winners and under someone else's thumb.
Capitalism made the stakes too high. But it was designed by the winners.
You might argue that there were plenty of "hopeless losers" in the systems that preceded capitalism
- the orphans, elderly crones, and beggars without livelihoods who used to wander the hedgerows
in medieval times. We have more resources now which also means no excuses.
Note, as an aside, how granting economic rights to outgroups like women and Blacks brought
them into the same market competition. Well, a lot of men don't want to compete with women for
status. They want to compete with each other. The more competitors you add the harder it is to
win. But when all resources are restricted to the market, it's unjust to exclude any
group from access. Once again the stakes are too high. Social democracies are better places to
live for exactly this reason.
It seems to me that humans, as hierarchical mammals, really do have a desire to compete
with each other for status and respect.
I think you're right about that and if we do ever manage to abolish capitalism and develop
a less violent and more egalitarian society, there will need to be an outlet for that innate desire.
I propose hockey. Beats starting a war .
When President Trump defeated his rival in the last election, among the many ways in which
the event was captured was a representation of the President as Perseus carrying the head of Medusa
(Clinton) in his outstretched left hand. Medusa was a monster gorgon of the Greek mythology; a
representation in this case by Clinton (a woman) who dared to take real power in this essentially
male world and silenced for trying to participate in the public discourse (election).
I take this example to point out that both Lynn Parramore and Rajni Kanth declaring in a version
of mumbo-jumbo are sadly wrong-modernism has always been skin-deep excepting in accommodating
the technological element in the tone of life. Voltaire and Rousseau aside, both Kanth and Parramore
know which side of the mumbo-jumbo bread is their butter; even bemoaning the collapsing supposed
ruins of modernism they do not fail to take advantage! "Eurocentric modernism has unhinged us
from our human nature" asserts Kanth in his "book" but I would like to bluntly ask him: Please
define your "us" and "our" in that proposition and clarify if poor Indians like Yours Truly find
a dot in that set.
The point is that what passes as Modernism has never entered modern life. In support of
my proposition I cite an encounter between a journalist and Mahatma Gandhi in 1930s: The journalist
asked Gandhi, "Mr. Gandhi, what is your opinion of the western civilization?" Gandhi replied instantaneously
"It would be a good idea".
It does not at all. This is the price one pays as an innocent reader by reading social science
mumbo jumbo which is so irksome. It lacks the grace of the real mumbo jumbo too. Kanth is bluffing;
the author misunderstands his stupid linguistic constructions of Kanth and incomprehension and
chaos follow. The whole article seems to be a bluff about a bluff(the book).
I think he's right about Eurocentric modernism being incompatible with human civilization.
But it can't be just an evolutionary accident that civilization is so aggressive. It served a
purpose. We refer to it as 'survival'. I used to tell my daughter not to make fun of those 'dorky
little boys' too much because they all had a way of growing up to be very nice men. And I told
her women are the reason we have all survived, but men have made it so much easier! And etc.
We have been very successful as a species; surviving all of our own inquisitions, pogroms,
hallucinations and yes, this is a serious situation we are in. We might even try to guide ourselves
out of it, using science and technology, as we huddle.
I suspect there was a fatal error long, long ago: you lend me your ram so my ewe can have offspring.
If there are twins, we each get one; if not, we agree upon future breeding rights and grazing
areas. After generations of this sort of breeding activity, I have in my mind the notion that
there is a 'natural increase' from lending or swapping.
Along comes a scribe with a tablet, whom I have now hired to list the number of my flocks (wealth
on the hoof); I lend you forms of wealth (rams, ewes, oxen, axes, boats) , and the scribe assumes
there must be some 'natural increase' as the outcome of this lending and swapping. Consequently,
the scribe carves cuneiform markings to represent what we might call 'compound interest' that
result from lending and swapping of non-biological resources - despite the fact that if you sit
two clay tablets in the sun, they do not (and never will!) create an additional clay tablet. Ditto
heaps of dollar bills; it's not the money that creates increase; it's the assumption of 'increase'
(originating in breeding activity of flocks and herds) that makes the money generate surplus -
not any property of those scraps of paper themselves.
BTW: FWIW, double entry bookkeeping seems to trace the earliest period of modernism, which
IMVHO adds heft to Kanth's argument about something shifting probably earlier than 400 years
ago.
It's possible that Michael Hudson has covered this; if so, I've not had time to read it yet.
I hope to in future. David Graeber's work on redemption ('buying back' someone enslaved or indentured)
and his anthropological findings also lend heft to Kanth's analysis.
"He first caught the scent that something was off as an economics student in India, wondering
why, despite his mastery of the mathematics and technology of the discipline, the logic always
escaped him. Then one day he had an epiphany: the whole thing was "cockeyed from start to finish.""
But the economics profession's problem isn't "blind faith in science." It's a massive failure
to apply the scientific method, combined with an expectation that we all put our blind faith in
THEM anyway.
I think our problems do not stem from any theories or ideologies, they are the predictable
result of human nature – specifically of the fact that the balance between the loving side of
human nature and the aggressive side is not evenly distributed among individuals. It is precisely
the most aggressive among us who most desire, and work the hardest, to dominate and control others.
I had the same experience as he had with economics with law, ok I only studied it when studying
business and that does not a lawyer make, but it made no sense for me. But I do think I maybe
just have the wrong kind of brain for it, expect a logic that isn't there.
Essentially a post-modern critique of modernism without all the jargon of p-m critical theory
(yay!!). I don't think we have enough data from the pre-modern huddling societies to determine
if that's how we want to live. Yes, my boss at work exploits me, but on the other hand, I can
walk into an air-conditioned supermarket and survey row after row of steaks that I can afford
to buy. I love to drive cars. The cinema is enchanting. Dying of a plague is a very remote possibility.
We could give it all up, but there's no guarantee our lives would be richer or fuller–just different,
at best.
Just how dark were the Dark Ages? Or, to borrow Churchill's phrase, how dark would a NEW Dark
Age be? I don't think you can get rid of Modernism very easily, for certain parts would survive.
Science and tech, for example. Ideas of surveillance and control. But along with this, new prejudices,
new superstitions, perhaps? What perverse new form of religion or philosophy might arise from
the ashes of our civilization?
Two possibles: the cargo cult children of Mad Max: Beyond the Thunderdome,
or the society depicted in Aldous Huxley's Ape and Essence. At least the Church in Rome and Constantinople
provided some kind of lifeline of civilization during the collapse of the Roman Empire. What similar
institution have we now?
Sounds like bog-standard post-modernist tosh to me, just without the obscure ProfSpeak jargon
that usually accompanies it. I fail to see how this is helpful.
The only thing missing in this post is Bambi. Of course the Bushmen would kill Bambi dead with
spears and roast her flesh over a fire. So would we, actually. hmmmm.
To illustrate one of its signature follies, Kanth refers to that great Hollywood ode to
the Western spirit, "The Sound of Music." Early in the film, the Mother Superior bursts into
song, calling on the nun Maria to "climb every mountain, ford every stream."
Sounds exhilarating, but to what end? Why exactly do we need to ford every stream? From
the Eurocentric modernist viewpoint, Kanth says, the answer is not so innocent: we secretly
do it so that we can say to ourselves, "Look, I achieved something that's beyond the reach
of somebody else." Hooray for me!
Many would part company with Kanth over the above characterization. There are many reasons
why people climb mountains and ford streams that do not include, or even consider, that element
of exclusive personal achievement. Some might even aver that climbing and fording and so many
other human activities are done "because it is there", while others appreciate a spiritual or
other inspirational aspect.
Will we climbers and forders be told that we are selfish or otherwise deficient or on the wrong
side of history or whatever the mal du jour is because we like a little bit of hygge
or Gemütlichkeit as we live our lives?
Quite that is indeed the point where I stopped reading and started skimming someone who mistakes
metaphors in a musical for physical actions is not going to enlighten my world (no matter how
much I dislike the film).
climbing every mountain and fording every stream is probably impossible in the literal sense
(aren't there way too many streams for this? and mountains probably too), and certainly it is
impossible in the metaphoric one.
I don't see why poor Julie Andrews, of all people, has to be singled out here as exemplifying
malign post-Enlightenment discourses of proprietorship and exploitation. That's just mean
. Surely those ideologies are better examined through a close reading of the Shamen's inexcusable
'90s electro hit "Move Every Mountain"?
I agree dude is right that the values now unraveling (democracy, pluralism, individualism,
free speech, international-ism (in both the good and bad ways)) go all the way back to that time.
But this article is a perfect example of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. Surely none
of the third world cultures he praises got where they are by totally throwing out previous systems,
the good parts and bad, every time they faced a crisis.
IMO the problem is enlightenment values have been hollowed out, narrowed to only those superficial
aspects of those values which benefit the marketplace. Like how real food got turned into Mosanto
fast-food so gradually, nobody noticed that the nutrients are missing.
While it's obvious how this thesis deflates modern capitalism, it would also appear to me that
the idea of refocusing on "kinship and community" would present a challenge to the "global solidarity"
mentality underlying most leftist thinking as well. You cannot simultaneously have an emphasis
on the huddled community, while also arguing that workers worldwide have a deeper and more important
connection than the business owner and his or her employees (assuming both are from within the
same community, natch). Either you assume humans have a universal commonness, which effectively
obliterates the notion of community, or you accept humans tend towards tribalism, which both discounts
any notion of creating a global, uniform leftist economics, but also suggests a troubling tendency
towards xenophobia.
Good point, "kinship and community" are analogous to tribalism and nationalism on a larger
scale unless you rephrase it to mean kinship with your family and neighbors on the local level,
and with humanity on a national/global level. Unfortunately, some of our current liberal globalists
seem to be forgetting the part about local kinship and community while embracing global humanity.
I dunno, may have something to do with cheaper labor abroad.
Partly, but there's also an association in the minds of many liberals and leftists of localized
control and thinking equating with oppression, historically. Things like segregation, discrimination,
violations of the separation of church and state, anti-labor employment & worksite laws, etc.
I think Kanth is quick to criticize materialism and scientific progress for all our ills while
seeming to have missed the horrid standards of living in his anthropological studies prior to
scientific progress with enlightenment principles over theocracy. I'd like to know what the longevity
of per-enlightenment citizens was compared to today. In fact, longevity in this country around
1900 was still in the mid 40's for most.
What I find would have been a better argument is to focus his critique not on scientific progress,
but on how there always seems to be a certain small minority of the population which seems to
have an out sized voice in how we choose to self govern. What we seem to be losing today is the
silent majority of voices who are for universal health care, not eroding further entitlements,
bodily security as well as economic security while still being able to encourage those who chose
to take risks and put themselves through more work and strain to be fairly rewarded.
The problem as I see it today, is that the pendulum, both politically, and socially, has swung
too far towards the selfish individualist.
The problem with how science is seen in a modernist context is two-fold. The "blind faith"
leads people to see it as all-encompassing, all-powerful, and not recognizing its scope and where
that scope ends. Ergo, anything that is successfully sold to the public and TPTB as "science"
gets said treatment and is viewed as being unquestionable (like, say, neoclassical economics).
Bruno Latour has been on this for decades in 1991 the book "We Have Never Been Modern" This has been followed by many other books, prizes, invited lectures, and thought exhibition
called Reset Modernity. The book, published last year, is related to the exhibition with that
title. Published by MIT press with 60 authors.
Reset Modernity
Reset Modernity!
Edited by Bruno Latour and Christophe Leclerc
Overview
Modernity has had so many meanings and tries to combine so many contradictory sets of attitudes
and values that it has become impossible to use it to define the future. It has ended up crashing
like an overloaded computer. Hence the idea is that modernity might need a sort of reset. Not
a clean break, not a "tabula rasa," not another iconoclastic gesture, but rather a restart
of the complicated programs that have been accumulated, over the course of history, in what
is often called the "modernist project." This operation has become all the more urgent now
that the ecological mutation is forcing us to reorient ourselves toward an experience of the
material world for which we don't seem to have good recording devices.
Reset Modernity! is organized around six procedures that might induce the readers to reset
some of those instruments. Once this reset has been completed, readers might be better prepared
for a series of new encounters with other cultures. After having been thrown into the modernist
maelstrom, those cultures have difficulties that are just as grave as ours in orienting themselves
within the notion of modernity. It is not impossible that the course of those encounters might
be altered after modernizers have reset their own way of recording their experience of the
world.
At the intersection of art, philosophy, and anthropology, Reset Modernity! has assembled
close to sixty authors, most of whom have participated, in one way or another, in the Inquiry
into Modes of Existence initiated by Bruno Latour. Together they try to see whether such a
reset and such encounters have any practicality. Much like the two exhibitions Iconoclash and
Making Things Public, this book documents and completes what could be called a "thought exhibition:"
Reset Modernity! held at ZKM | Center for Art and Media Karlsruhe from April to August 2016.
Like the two others, this book, generously illustrated, includes contributions, excerpts, and
works from many authors and artists.
Seems to me that the insight into the relevancy of anthropology vis a vis economics is a product
of science. And Adam Smith had some good points that have been lost along the way, namely penalizing rent
seeking.
Smith has been seriously misrepresented. The Theory of Moral Sentiments shows a very different
side to that presented by those who selectively quote from The Wealth of Nations.
It's hard to tell from the rather incoherent summary of what looks like an incoherent argument,
but the "everything went wrong after the Enlightenment" meme has been circulating for ages. It
was speared pretty effectively by Domenico Losurdo in "War and Revolution" some years ago. The
author seems to be jumbling all sorts of arguments together, some valid and some not, but the
valid arguments are in general criticisms of liberalism, which is not the same of the Enlightenment.
This is a very good point, as the Enlightenment was not merely a straight line connection to
the blight of NeoLiberalism. Rather, there were those, such as Burke, or some of our "Founding
Fathers" who were students of history, and while discriminating observers of the deleterious elements
of human nature, they were also cognizant of the more helpful elements of that same human nature.
They, however, tended toward the view that those helpful elements required deliberate nurturance
in order to come to the fore. Some of this nurturance could be achieved by partially neutralizing
the deleterious elements by balancing interests (you weren't going to get rid of the propensities,
but you could limit the scope of their play by pitting societal forces one against the other in
political structures, vide the doctrine of separation of powers), while nurturance could
also be achieved through perpetuation of those societal institutions that address the individual
conscience and behaviors like religious doctrine and examples.
The naked embrace of selfishness, while never absent over these centuries, did have countervailing
currents and forces with which to contend that were sometimes able to at least minimize the damage.
But more recently, with supposedly scientific NeoLiberal economic thought sweeping the field throughout
much of the first world, and with the overall decline of religious and moral systems as a counterpoise,
things have reached an unlovely pass.
But it would be incorrect to solely blame Enlightenment themes for where we are today. Much
of what was presumed to be necessary to the proper, humane functioning of the ideal Enlightenment
society has been pushed aside in favor of the degraded every-man-for-himself, homo economicus
scourge that holds sway.
Joseph de Maistre, the conservative critic of Enlightenment values, deserves far more blame
for the horrors of modernity than do Voltaire or his like minded colleagues. And I can't even
find de Maistre mentioned in the index of Saul's book.
Thanks for mentioning Joseph de Maistre. I have never heard of him. I think you'd enjoy this
book, nonetheless. Saul doesn't actually "blame" Voltaire. He blames those who came after Voltaire.
For that matter, the bulk of the book is about the 20th century's (mis)interpretation of the Enlightment
project. I should have mentioned that the full title is "Voltaire's Bastards: The Dictatorship
of Reason in the West".
Interesting story Waring told when I heard her speak in Toronto – As she boarded a bus at the
airport to travel to her hotel, and a young man (20s) recognized her because the film is shown
to high school students throughout Canada.
And Capital Institute's John Fullerton
FIELD GUIDE TO A REGENERATIVE
ECONOMY Primarily due to reading George Monbiot's inane rejection of the work of Allan Savory
and Capital Institute's work with Grasslands LLC. Brought to me this morning by Nicole Foss and
the Guardian.
And for farmer's and lovers of the land, I couldn't help but hear Wendell Berry, "It all turns
on affection."
Interesting to have these things intersect with this morning's coffee. Thank you.
"Spanish oil company Repsol SA said on Thursday that it
had discovered a giant oil field in Alaska, a potential find
big enough to help stem production declines in the state.
Repsol said two wells drilled this winter with
Denver-based partner Armstrong Oil & Gas, Inc. indicate that
recent discoveries in an area that lies between existing
operations in the state's North Slope could hold as much as
1.2 billion barrels of oil.
First production from the discoveries could come as soon
as 2021, with output of as much as 120,000 barrels a day,
Repsol : "
A Lefty Legend Pleads for a Return to a New Deal Ethos
By JONATHAN MARTIN
MARCH 7, 2017
WASHINGTON - Charles Peters, the renowned Washington
Monthly editor, is going on 91, does not get around very
easily and was disgusted enough by President Trump's address
to Congress to let loose a few profanities in his gentle West
Virginia drawl.
But Mr. Peters remains an optimist, believing that
salvation is still possible if the country returns to the
true faith of his New Deal youth.
"Maybe I'm old," he said in an interview in his living
room here last week, "but I'm forever hopeful about the
Democratic Party."
Mr. Peters has spent much of his life in and around
politics. He was once a young state legislator who thought he
wanted to be governor. Then he felt the tug to the nation's
capital, where he was one of the first executives of the
Peace Corps.
Eventually he founded and ran a feisty, liberal-leaning
policy magazine perhaps best known for launching the careers
of dozens of prominent journalists, including James Fallows,
Jon Meacham, David Ignatius and Katherine Boo. Now he has
written a book that some of those old charges think amounts
to a last testament.
To hear Mr. Peters himself tell it, though, the book, "We
Do Our Part," is a desperate plea to his country and party to
resist the temptations of greed, materialism and elitism -
vices he believes have corroded the civic culture and led to
the Democrats' failure last year.
"I'm trying to grab people by the lapels and say, 'We've
got to change,'" he said. "And I feel that there is a realism
to that hope because of the shock of this election."
Mr. Peters's book - the title is taken from the motto of
the New Deal's National Recovery Administration - is not a
memoir. But his own formative experiences are at the core of
his cri de coeur.
Democrats, Washington and too much of the country, he
argues, have drifted from the sense of shared purpose that
lifted America out of the Depression, created the will to win
World War II and fostered the rise of a more egalitarian, if
still inequitable, society.
Mr. Peters saw it firsthand. As a child, he witnessed his
parents hand food to hungry strangers who came to the back
door of their Charleston, W.Va., home.
Later, as a young lawyer, he oversaw the local
presidential campaign of a Catholic senator hoping to win
over a largely Protestant state. The success of John F.
Kennedy in the 1960 Democratic primary there helped forge a
conviction that Mr. Peters feels his party must not lose
sight of today, even as more working-class whites drift from
what was the party of their class.
"The better angels of the state's voters had won out,
engraving on me the lesson that prejudice can be overcome,"
he writes.
Mr. Peters's idealism is undiminished: He thinks that the
sort of blue-collar white voters who just rejected Hillary
Clinton in his native state, where she lost by 42 percentage
points, can be won back if Democrats are again seen as the
party of the common man rather than the liberal professional
class. But he spends much of 274 pages outlining why that may
prove so difficult.
Through a series of anecdotes, statistics and other
plucked-from-the-news items that will be familiar to anyone
who read his "Tilting at Windmills" column in Washington
Monthly, Mr. Peters recounts how liberals were once
invigorated with the public-spirited fervor of the New Deal
and New Frontier, but sold out. Race-baiting conservatives
then swooped in, he says, and the country was left the worse
for it.
"Our national problem is that too many of our cultural
winds are blowing us in the direction of self-absorption,
self-promotion, and making a barrel of money," he writes.
He piles up the evidence, reserving most of his scorn for
the liberal meritocratic class that he believes has allowed
Democrats to be depicted as out of touch.
Thought-provoking, wide-ranging blog post by Jared* on
international trade. I guess PGL only had time to read Timmy
Taylor in his rush to post first.
He disagrees with
Navarro** about trade deficits always being a problem and
notes that there are two sides or aspects to the equation.
"As long as the world's excess global savings continue to
flow to our shores, our trade deficit will persist, and going
after bilateral deficits one at a time becomes a game of
whack-a-mole that we can't win."
Jared notes how Brad Setser suggests a solution: "As Brad
Setser convincingly argues, encouraging countries with large
surpluses (which must show up as deficits somewhere else) to
engage in more internal investment is a far preferable way to
reduce our own imbalances than tariffs and trade barriers."
Too bad we don't have a WTO that could force surplus
nations like Germany and China to do this.
But Jared admits Navarro isn't always wrong (something PGL
can't bring himself to do given his hateful nature.)
"Second, Navarro is not wrong to worry about the drag on
demand from negative net exports, but only when there's
nothing in the pipeline to offset it. The Federal Reserve can
lower interest rates to offset the drag, but not if they're
near zero, or in "normalization" mode (raising rates), both
of which are operative today. Fiscal policy can pick up the
slack, but not if Congress refuses to step up.
So yeah, today's trade deficits are a problem. They've not
been large enough to keep the economy from growing and
unemployment from falling, but remember, it's year eight of
an economic expansion and we've still not fully closed the
GDP output gap (and that's even the case as potential GDP has
been lowered). In the absence of offsets, we could have used
that extra demand."
This is what the neoliberals like PGL and Sanjait don't
understand or can't admit. Why? Because of politics and how
Democrats like Bill Clinton and Obama pushed corporate free
trade deals and trade policy. Because critics like Navarro
and Bernie Sanders have struck a cord with populist voters
concerned about corporate trade.
Jared Bernstein wraps up with a plea for infrastructure
spending given the threat of the SecStags.
"But given the existential threat of climate change, or
for that matter, the general state of our public goods, I
find it awfully hard to accept the contention that there's
nothing productive in which to invest the excess savings
surplus countries continue to send our way."
Compare with Hillary' modest fiscal action which Alan
Blinder said wouldn't effect the Fed's reaction function.
DeLong still backed her over Sanders despite the threat of
the Secstags. Critics of Fed policy like Sanjait and PGL
still backed Hillary even though she had no criticisms of the
Fed or plans to reform its policy.
* like PGL, I pretend to know the write to give myself the
appearance more authority.
** PGL's bete noir.
'Superstar Firms' May
Have Shrunk Workers'
Share of Income
https://nyti.ms/2mGiVmQ
NYT - PATRICIA COHEN -
MARCH 8, 2017
For much of the
last century it seemed
that the slice of the
total economic pie
going to workers was -
like the speed of
light - constant. No
matter what the
economy's makeup,
labor could
collectively depend on
taking home roughly
two-thirds of the
country's total output
as compensation for
its efforts. Workers'
unchanging share, the
economist John Maynard
Keynes declared in
1939, was "one of the
most surprising, yet
best-established,
facts in the whole
range of economic
statistics."
But in recent
decades, that steady
share - which includes
everything from the
chief executive's
bonuses and stock
options to the
parking-lot
attendant's minimum
wage and tips -
started to flutter. In
the 2000s, it slipped
significantly.
Although the numbers
have inched up in the
last couple of years,
labor's portion has
not risen above 59
percent since before
the recession.
The decline has
coincided with a
slowdown in overall
growth as well as a
stark leap in
inequality. "Labor is
getting a shrinking
slice of a pie that's
not growing very
much," David Autor, an
economist at M.I.T.,
said. It is a
development that is
upending political
establishments and
economic policies in
the United States and
abroad.
The reason for
workers' shrinking
portion of the
economy's rewards is
puzzling.
Shrinking Labor
Share
(graph at link)
The labor share is
the percentage of
economic output that
accrues to workers in
the form of
compensation.
Source: Bureau of
Labor Statistics
Some economists
argue that
technological
advancements are to
blame as employers
have replaced workers
with machines. Others
point to trade powered
by cheap foreign
labor, a view
championed by
President Trump that
particularly resonated
among voters.
Alternate culprits
include tax policies
that treat investment
income more favorably
than wages; flagging
skills and education
that have rendered
workers less
productive or unsuited
to an information- and
service-based economy;
or a weakening of
labor unions that has
chipped away at
workers' bargaining
power and protections.
Over the last 15
years, for example,
labor productivity has
grown faster than
wages, a sign that
workers are not being
adequately compensated
for their
contributions. And
some industries have
fared worse than
others. Slices of the
pie going to mining
and manufacturing
narrowed the most,
while service workers
(including
professional and
business services) had
the biggest gains. ...
---
Instead of a robot
tax, @Noahpinion
suggests sharing the
profits they create
http://bv.ms/2lPl7HC
via @Bloomberg - Noah
Smith - February 28,
2017
Microsoft Corp.
founder Bill Gates
made a splash in a
recent interview, when
he suggested that
robots should be taxed
in order to help
humans keep their
jobs:
'Right now, the
human worker who does,
say, $50,000 worth of
work in a factory,
that income is taxed
and you get income
tax, social security
tax, all those things.
If a robot comes in to
do the same thing,
you'd think that we'd
tax the robot at a
similar level.'
Gates is only one
of many people in the
tech world who have
worried about
automation and its
threat to workers. ...
Re those "superstar" firms cited in the NY Times story as
causing the decline in labor's share of national income:
That wouldn't be the case if the employees in those firms
(e.g., Amazon) were unionized. The long, precipitous drop in
union membership is often given as the No. 1 cause of a
smaller labor share of the income pie. To this reader, the
rise of superstar firms doesn't take away from that cause; if
anything, it adds to it.
P.S. Amazon, BTW, is a textbook case of union-crushing by
management.
Good point about Amazon. I have never bought anything from
them and never will. I have been unable to get my wife to
stop using them although I have been successful in
intervening to prevent her from buying me things from Amazon.
I prefer to source locally where possible and for stuff not
locally available then use mail order by phone from vendors
that use domestic call centers such as Gempler's and Cabela's
and even Breck's which has a call center in the US even
though most of the bulbs ship from Netherlands.
I am buying
a Silky Hayate pole pruner today from the Sherrill Tree local
retailer (Vermeer Mid Atlantic LLC). Aside from the extra 20
mile trip up the highway to Ashland VA (from Sandston where I
live) the price is the same as it was at the lowest cost
Internet retailers. I do like the Internet for price checking
and comparative shopping of products. I just don't buy
anything there. Of course, being retired now there is less
temptation to let my wife buy it for me on the Internet to
save me the time and trouble.
BTW, Amazon is a whole separate case from the Internet in
general. I only previously knew about Amazon though because
an Amazon fulfillment center opened up "next door" to the
VITA/Northrop Grumman data center in Chester VA where I
worked until mid-June 2015. Word got around as they say. It
was the worst sweat shop in town.
But I don't do any online
shopping. With Amazon though I don't even want my wife buying
stuff for me there.
Do you shop at Wal-Mart?
Because they're just as anti-union as any other corporation.
Do you know why companies like to set up manufacturing
operations in little towns? Because the town is then
dependent on that manufacturing operation for it's jobs, so
the company can then threaten to move if the town tries to
unionize.
I'm just saying that unions (outside of a few remaining
stragglers) are effectively dead in this country.
I do shop at Walmart. They have snuffed out most of the
decent competition. The local Kroger's sucks. There is a
decent Kroger's in Richmond about twenty miles away. On the
way back from Vermeer's today I will swing by one of the last
remaining Martin's (a.k.a., Giant Foods in other zip codes)
for some groceries, but it is over twice as far from my house
as Walmart. Later this year either a Food Lion or a Publix
will open up where our local Martin's was until last
Thanksgiving. There is a Lowes near where our Martin's used
to be, so that keeps me out of Walmart for lawn and garden.
Before Martin's there was a local grocer (Ukrop's) where I
did my grocery shopping and it was great until competition,
largely from Walmart, snuffed them out.
Both declining union membership and market concentration are
a result of a "business friendly" regulatory environment
which enables ever greater rent extractions. Yet another nail
in the coffin of "the robots did it!"
One of Navarro's big arguments is that there are big National
Security implications to trade deficits. If that is not
correct, then please show me in economic models where the
potential National Security implications of trade surpluses
and deficits are taken into account.
If our current
economic models do not describe them (just as they were
oblivious to finance before 2008, and oblivious to deaths by
privation even now), then the models are at best irrelevant
and at worst catastrophic.
"Kennedy argues that the strength of a Great Power can be
properly measured only relative to other powers, and he
provides a straightforward and persuasively argued thesis:
Great Power ascendancy (over the long term or in specific
conflicts) correlates strongly to available resources and
economic durability; military overstretch and a concomitant
relative decline are the consistent threats facing powers
whose ambitions and security requirements are greater than
their resource base can provide for.
"'
The "military conflict" referred to in the book's subtitle is
therefore always examined in the context of "economic
change." The triumph of any one Great Power in this period,
or the collapse of another, has usually been the consequence
of lengthy fighting by its armed forces; but it has also been
the consequences of the more or less efficient utilization of
the state's productive economic resources in wartime, and,
further in the background, of the way in which that state's
economy had been rising or falling, relative to the other
leading nations, in the decades preceding the actual
conflict.'"
Put more simply,
Trade surpluses lead to economic power,
Which leads to political power,
Which leads to military power.
The decline happens in the same sequence, usually ending
in what is *very* euphamistcally described as a "bloody
nose."
Kennedy traces this sequence over multiple states and over
500 years of history.
If this is taken into account in economic trade theory,
please provide a link.
How does this
work? Yes China has accumulated a lot of net foreign assets
whereas we have incurred a lot of net foreign debt. But if
one looks at the net income from this (net income from
abroad), we have run consistent surpluses whereas as China
has run consistent deficits. This is what "Dark Matter" (or
Dark Anti-Matter) is all about.
Paper determines how resources are allocated, but it is an
insignificant resource in and of itself. We can always make
more paper as long as Canada has trees:<)
The role of trade surpluses leading to economic and
political power needs to be normalized into GDP per capita
terms to see its relevance. China is a great economic force,
but the US still has the greater political and economic power
because its nearly equal force is spread across a much
shorter distance (i.e., population).
Easy for US to generate capital by decreasing our aggregate
demand for signalling. Adjust tax code to tax only Veblen
Goods, but maintain deflation to insure a reward for savings.
Then "stimulate" M2V by tax relief for those below median
income. And stimulate using the magic of totally free trade.
Kennedy shows that historically. over a very long period of
time, this has been the case. Your question - "how" - in
economic theory terms is the precise issue. In physics, when
theory doesn't fit the data, the theory gets thrown out. In
economics ....
What cause the trade deficit. If you are talking about that
disaster in 1981/82 - yes. A toxic mix of fiscal stimulus and
incredibly tight monetary policy led to a massive $
appreciation, a fall in net exports, and a massive increase
in unemployment.
But let's say Trump goes ahead with some
large public infrastructure investment which creates a lot of
new US jobs. The workers will buy more goods in general some
of which will be imported goods. YUUUGE difference that I
would hope even you could understand.
Given the disastrous results from pentagon [[soft] corruption
of weapons for jobs in district and PAC money] spending I
would not associate trade deficit with US' version of
imperial decline.
Soviet Union could not import levis and coca cola which
coincided with its fall.
"Second,an oped by the Trump Administration's trade guy Peter Navarro, who clearly does view
the trade deficit as a report card that's been bringing home F's for about 40 years."
Actually the report card for Navarro merits an F. Jared's big theme simply put is that our
prolonged current account deficit has meant growing net foreign debt for US whereas China's surpluses
have led to a rise in net foreign assets. Missing from this discussion is what some call "Dark
Matter" – the fact that the US still receives a net surplus in terms of net income from abroad
whereas China has a net deficit – what I dubbed "Dark Anti-Matter".
PeterK's ranting is justified. He and I are of the opinion that until neoliberals like pgl admit
that their policy framework was wrong and has caused a lot of hardship (trade policy being tops),
there will be no progress in progressives coming back from the crushing defeats they have suffered.
The refusal to even admit they were wrong means what Bernie started might die. That would be
a travesty.
And trust me, PeterK and I have been at loggerheads for a long time over Fed policy so I am
no BFF defending him. He just happens to be 100% right in this case.
Learn broken field running. Keep your eyes on the goal and sidestep obstacles. Progressives just
need to organize themselves better. Establishment liberals will hop on board when they see that
the progressives ARE the new establishment.
Quibbling and making enemies along the way does not help our cause. It just makes the old guard
more defensive, just like attacking Trump voters instead of Trump just kept up Trump's support.
Also, don't attack anyone for what you think that they might do. Wait until they have done it.
Nothing is saved by warnings. Either people get it or they don't. Prosecute real offenses, especially
where there is sufficient evidence to get a conviction (metaphorically speaking, but literally
when you can).
"Progressives just need to organize themselves better."
I disagree with this diagnosis. We need wholesale change. Losing all three houses and 2/3 of
state legislatures is not sign enough that we need complete overhaul?
You are correct in that is how it stands for now. The question going forwards is whether it is
easier to take over the DNC or buy into a new build political party. Without campaign finance
reform, an end to gerrymandering, ranked voting to replace first past the post, legislative term
limits, and popular power of petition and referendum to overturn SCOTUS (e.g., Citizens United),
then taking over the DNC would be much easier to pull off than creating an electorally effective
progressive party out of whole cloth.
The DNC is less concerned about Citizens United than you might think. The more expensive elections
become, the more remote a third party challenge becomes.
Democrats are like the Washington Generals, the team that got paid to lose to the Globe Trotters
while making the game appear to be competitive...
"The DNC is less concerned about Citizens United than you might think. The more expensive elections
become, the more remote a third party challenge becomes..."
[Understood. Between the two parties and Citizens United then a third party does not have much
of a chance. Hence confiscating the DNC seems to be the only option other than not re-electing
anyone until we get constitutional amendments to fix the other things.]
I am not disagreeing with you here. Progressives being organized is a complete overhaul. That
is how establishment liberal came to mean neoliberal. Progressives have not been organized since
FDR died.
LBJ's Great Society was not a progressive movement although it had progressive support from MLK,
SCLC, and SNCC. The Great Society was primarily just LBJ using his southern drawl to broker with
Dixiecrats to pass legislation that they would reluctantly support. That is how we got escalation
in RVN War, outsource Fannie Mae, and expanded AFDC while retaining the single parent eligibility
requirement. LBJ could deal broker, but those deals were not so progressive as sixties liberals
wanted to believe that they were.
I doubt that is true of many of them and certainly not EMichael or pgl. Their form of conservatism
is entirely a matter of opportunities as they see them. That is practiced restraint in the face
of reactionary opposition. They, like many establishment liberals, are just more technocratic
than comfortable populist. To them populist is derogatory, undisciplined, and irrational. And
they are correct about that until they are not.
[Well it is certainly burning up a lot of disk space somewhere. So, there is a few pennies
value there for HP, EMC, Seagate or someone. Also, it may save a marriage. Take out your rage
anonymously online rather than with your boss, either at work or at home.
Correction: Exactly how many people have been employed by our giant capital account surplus? A
few Wall Street bankers, I'm sure...which will certainly make pgl happy.
Oh boy - answer is none. But it is such an off the wall question that there is no point to it.
JohnH -> pgl... , -1
The point went right over pgl's head--you can estimate how many jobs are linked to exports, and
how many jobs are lost from imports...but capital account surpluses cannot be linked to any jobs,
unless you count those of a few Wall Street traders.
The two main news stories this morning both gave us an
insight into how capitalist power works.
The first item is the increase in NICs despite repeated
Tory promises not to do so. It would be nice to think this
will lead to a backlash against the Tories. But it might not.
People don't like to admit even to themselves that they were
stupid enough to let themselves be conned. One trick to
protect their egos is to adopt naïve cynicism towards
politicians in general: "they're all the same, aren't they?".
As the Economist put it:
It is tempting to think that, when policies sold on dodgy
prospectuses start to fail, lied-to supporters might see the
error of their ways. The worst part of post-truth politics,
though, is that this self-correction cannot be relied on.
When lies make the political system dysfunctional, its poor
results can feed the alienation and lack of trust in
institutions that make the post-truth play possible in the
first place.
But who benefits from this lack of trust?
Capitalists, that's who. Collective action, exercised in
part through state politics, is a potential constraint upon
capitalist power. The less trust people have in politicians,
the less this constraint will be used. Colin Crouch has said:
An atmosphere of cynicism about politics and
politicians suits the agenda of those wishing to rein back
the active state, as in the form of the welfare state and
Keynesian state, precisely in order to liberate and
deregulate private power (Post-Democracy, p23)
Our second item is the news that BlackRock is paying
George Osborne £650,000 a year. What are they buying? It's
not his economic expertise – he'd struggle to get a minimum
wage job on that account – nor even his contacts. Instead,
BlackRock is offering an incentive to the world's finance
ministers. It's telling them that they too can get big money
if they behave themselves in office*.
Such behaviour consists of giving the industry a
favourable tax regime, lightish regulation, and ensuring a
good flow of easy money. Osborne's policy of fiscal
conservatism and monetary activism had the effect of boosting
asset prices (pdf), to the benefit of firms like BlackRock**.
It's through mechanisms like this that capitalists gain
undue influence over the state: there of course several other
mechanisms, not all of which are exercised consciously or
deliberately.
This influence isn't perfect – we'd probably not have had
Brexit if it were – but it exists. The idea that democracy
means equality of political power is a fiction in capitalism.
You might think this is a Marxist point. I prefer,
however, to think of it as a Cohenist one:
Everybody knows the fight was fixed
The poor stay poor, the rich get rich
Except that not everybody does know the fight is fixed,
because the question of how capitalist power is exercised –
like other questions such as whether capitalism impedes
productivity or whether hierarchy is justifiable – is not on
the agenda. But then, the issue of what gets to be a
prominent political question and what doesn't is another way
in which power operates to favour capitalists.
* I'm not saying this is BlackRock's motive – but it
certainly looks like the effect of its decision.
There is no progressive equivalent of the alt-right. Instead of scorning the politics of the left,
traditional liberals should embrace it.
BY CLIO CHANG
March 6, 2017
In the 2016 election, it was common for centrist conservatives and liberals to treat the populist
fervor animating the campaigns of Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump as two sides of the same coin.
Jonathan Capehart at The Washington Post went as far as to claim that Sanders and Trump share the
"same DNA." Post-election, conservative organizations like Fox News picked up the thread, using the
term "alt-left" to frame the Democratic wing led by Sanders and Elizabeth Warren as extreme. At the
dawn of the Trump era, this trend has shown no signs of flagging. In the past week, we have seen
prominent liberals once again demonizing the left and even appropriating the language of the talk
radio right-a tactic that is as misguided as it is unhelpful.
In a piece published on Vanity Fair's website on Friday, the critic James Wolcott argued that
the "alt-left" is a "mirror image distortion" of the alt-right. Wolcott wrote that the two movements
are "not kissin' cousins, but they caterwaul some of the same tunes in different keys." He argued
that the alt-left's "dude-bros and 'purity progressives' exert a powerful reality-distortion field
online and foster factionalism on the lib-left." In a less bombastic yet more insidious op-ed column
in The New York Times, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair claimed that the populist left has
adopted many traits of the populist right:
One element has aligned with the right in revolt against globalization, but with business taking
the place of migrants as the chief evil. They agree with the right-wing populists about elites, though
for the left the elites are the wealthy, while for the right they're the liberals.
According to Blair, this populist leftism is "a profound error" that has "no chance of matching
the populist appeal of the right" and "dangerously validates some of the right's arguments."
These columns, in their different ways, expose the fallacies of a liberalism that still is very
uncomfortable sharing a tent with what is viewed as the leftist rabble. Wolcott seems primarily concerned
with a strain of illiberalism-e.g., an intolerance for certain kinds of speech, an antipathy toward
the compromises inherent in government-that is prevalent in isolated quarters of the left. Blair
is positing a more dangerous idea: that liberalism should essentially reorient itself as a globalized
technocracy, in opposition to anti-elite populism.
The first problem with these kinds of arguments is that the "alt-left" doesn't actually exist,
at least not in the way that the left's opponents would have it. As The New Republic's Sarah Jones
pointed out, the alt-right's goal, shared by neo-Nazis like Richard Spencer and the White House's
infamous Steves (Bannon and Miller), is to implement a white supremacist state. In contrast, the
goals of the "alt-left" are not too different from that of a New Deal Democrat. Universal health
care and a $15 minimum wage are not the left's version of a Muslim ban, even if the rhetoric of the
left is combative, uncompromising, and, yes, sometimes obnoxious.
As Eric Levitz points out at New York, one of the main problems with Wolcott's piece is that he
cherry-picks a number of voices-many of whom barely intersect-to speak for a perceived group. Among
them are a few writers he apparently dislikes (Michael Tracey, Freddie deBoer, Connor Kilpatrick),
Susan Sarandon, Mickey Kaus, and Oliver Stone. While criticisms can be made of many of Wolcott's
targets, to lump them together as representative of the "alt-left" is nonsensical. It conflates being
Loud Online with actual politics. And crucially, unlike members of the alt-right, who are being actively
wooed by the GOP, these people have almost no power.
A graver sin is the adoption of a term that was created by conservatives to smear the left and
discredit criticisms of the growing clout of the racist right. Richard Spencer coined the term "alt-right"
for his own movement. In very stark contrast, "alt-left" is a strawman invention of far-right websites.
As The Washington Post's Aaron Blake pointed out in December, "The difference between alt-right and
alt-left is that one of them was coined by the people who comprise the movement and whose movement
is clearly ascendant; the other was coined by its opponents and doesn't actually have any subscribers."
When "alt-left" is deployed by the likes of Sean Hannity on Fox News, it is a form of propaganda
used to conflate groups like Black Lives Matter with the Ku Klux Klan. For Wolcott to ascribe to
this notion only gives this right-wing smear more credence.
Blair invokes the specter of a "dangerous" left for different reasons. By equating the populist
left's hostility toward big business and the 1 percent with the populist right's hostility toward
migrants and people of color, he is creating a false equivalence that undermines progressivism as
a whole. The ultra-wealthy patrons of the Republican Party (and, to a lesser extent, the Democratic
Party) are, in fact, much to blame for deep inequality we see in the United States. Globalization
did gouge the working and middle classes in the West, most notoriously during the Great Recession,
even as it lifted millions out of poverty in other parts of the world. Political elites did fail
us, from the Iraq War to the financial crisis.
Yet this is how Blair frames the debate over these issues:
Today, a distinction that often matters more than traditional right and left is open vs. closed.
The open-minded see globalization as an opportunity but one with challenges that should be mitigated;
the closed-minded see the outside world as a threat. This distinction crosses traditional party lines
and thus has no organizing base, no natural channel for representation in electoral politics.
The last half of Blair's op-ed argues for achieving "radical change" by reaching for voters who
remain in the "big space in the center." Tellingly, he calls for an alliance between Silicon Valley-an
industry of socially liberal economic elites-and public policy. In his closing line, Blair states
that "we must build a new coalition that is popular, not populist."
There are two ironies in Blair's column. The first is that Blair himself was partly responsible
for his Labour Party losing a large chunk of its core working-class voters, thanks to the Iraq War
and the Great Recession. The second is that huge pillars of Blair's British-style "moderate" liberalism-such
as universal health care-are totally in line with what the American populist left is demanding. The
populist left, in other words, is well within the mainstream of Western democratic tradition; it
is apparently their anti-elitist rhetoric that really rubs Blair the wrong way. He is, after all,
an elite himself.
One big lesson from Hillary Clinton's loss to Donald Trump was her campaign's over-reliance on
the mythical moderate voter. (Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer encapsulated this line of thinking
in an infamously bad projection: "For every blue-collar Democrat we will lose in western Pennsylvania,
we will pick up two or three moderate Republicans in the suburbs of Philadelphia." It didn't quite
work out that way.) Wolcott and Blair do not address this problem. In different ways, they make a
case for "the center" based on a bad-faith argument that the populist left is the same brand of scourge
as the nationalist right.
In American politics at least, the political center is the space between a functional liberal
democratic party and one hijacked by white nationalists. This is not a promising ground on which
liberals can build "out from," as Blair puts it. Whether he likes it or not, the case remains that
the Democratic Party will need its left wing to mobilize working-class and young, progressive voters;
the left will need institutions like the Democratic Party if it wants to win elections. Over the
next few years, there will be time for arguments over strategies and priorities. But there is no
time for liberals to try to delegitimize the populist left; it will only cut their own legs out from
under them.
Please note that Hudson refers to "internal" debt -- debt that is hold by Us citizents. This debt
probally does not matter. But the US debt to china is completly different story. it matters.
Notable quotes:
"... In it, he argued that the 'classical' in the term 'neoclassical' is a misnomer and that neoclassical and classical economics actually have little in common, despite attempts by neoclassicals to claim Smith, in particular, as their forefather. ..."
"... In a recent interview (h/t to Tom Hickey), Hudson discusses one big difference between the Classical economists and the neoclassicals: their analysis of taxation as applied to economic rent. ..."
"... Hudson touches on a number of noteworthy points during the interview. He draws attention to a historical correspondence that would probably surprise many, between high top tax rates and strong economic growth, and observes that the top rates were high in the period prior to WWII. ..."
"... Importantly, the focus of taxation in Classical Political Economy, which Hudson argues influenced US government policy in the late 1800s and much of the first half of the 1900s, was on confiscating economic rents. These rents include income that derives from ownership of assets that appreciate in value merely because of the growth in national income and/or improved public infrastructure, and not due to any participation in the production process (they arise especially in the real estate and financial sectors). ..."
"... However, the classical economists were engaged in a class war with rentiers, not capitalists. ..."
"... It was Marx who drew this reasoning out to its logical conclusion, and this probably goes a long way to explaining why neoclassical theory, rather than being a continuation of classical economics (as was often claimed once it was established), was an escape into a different conceptualization of a capitalist economy that sought to reframe the distribution of income as the result of marginal contributions (an attempt that failed and was the chief target and theoretical casualty of the Cambridge Capital Controversy). ..."
"... Above all, Hudson distinguishes between what the classical economists meant by the term "free market" and what that term has come to mean in the neo-liberal period. ..."
"... Hudson emphasizes that, for the classical economists, "free market" meant a market unencumbered by rent-based claims on income that would draw economic activity away from income production and toward speculation. ..."
"... The aim of the classical economists was to incentivize production. This is a very different notion than the neo-liberal one of labor-market "deregulation" (meaning regulation in favor of employers over employees), which is really just code for union smashing and an attack on real wages, or the neo-liberal deregulation of financial markets, which is a euphemism for enabling financial parasitism. ..."
"... He notes that immediately prior to the commencement of the only extended period of high capitalist growth (WWII until the late 1960s), the US population was not in debt, and in fact had pent up savings from the war that it was waiting to spend. ..."
"... By little or no debt, Hudson clarifies that he means little or no private debt. There was, of course, a large public debt – larger as a percentage of GDP than the current US government "debt". ..."
"... This public debt did not matter, in spite of the familiar opposition to deficits and public debt, the echoes of which can be heard today, simply because the budget deficit shrinks endogenously once private-sector activity and income growth resume. This is precisely what happened in the immediate postwar period. ..."
"... Government "debt" is nothing other than the accumulated net financial wealth of the non-government. ..."
"... Once the non-government is ready to spend, income growth will deliver stronger revenues, reducing the deficit. But the private sector needs to have its debt under control before it will resume spending at levels sufficient to sustain strong economic growth. ..."
"... In addition to the absence of significant private debt at the end of WWII, there were other factors that contributed to the strong growth of the immediate postwar period, including Keynesian demand-management policies, a progressive tax system, and significant financial regulation. ..."
"... Hudson discusses how, over time, much of the progressivity in the tax system was removed, paving the way for the construction of the inequitable and anti-productive monster of today. ..."
"... The result of this neo-liberal policy mix was an increasing financialization and "rentification" of the economy, widening income inequality, and an adherence to fiscal austerity that directly corresponded, as a matter of accounting, to an unsustainable build up in the only US debt that matters – private debt – and culminated in the Global Financial Crisis and Great Recession. ..."
"... But the actual policy response has instead been to manipulate financial markets to engineer a massive transfer of wealth to the rentiers and exacerbate income and wealth inequality; to continue with the approach of taxing wage and profit income along with consumption rather than economic rents; and possibly even to revert foolishly to austerity while the private sector remains deeply indebted. ..."
"At the university I attended, a few of the academics were strongly influenced by Classical
Political Economy, especially that of Smith and Ricardo. Prior to my student days, one of them
had published a paper in the Cambridge Journal of Economics entitled "On the origins of the term
'neoclassical'" (no free link available), which is quite well known in heterodox circles.
In it, he argued that the 'classical' in the term 'neoclassical' is a misnomer and that
neoclassical and classical economics actually have little in common, despite attempts by neoclassicals
to claim Smith, in particular, as their forefather.
The classical-influenced economists at my university happened to belong to the Sraffian School.
This school attempts to synthesize Classical value and distribution with Keynesian output and
employment determination, and is also known for its key role and victory in the Cambridge Capital
Controversy. The school is named after Piero Sraffa, whose interpretation of Classical Political
Economy, particularly Ricardo's work, has been highly influential.
Sraffians are not the only modern-day economists influenced by Smith and Ricardo. Another prominent
example is Michael Hudson.
In a recent interview (h/t to Tom Hickey), Hudson discusses one big difference between
the Classical economists and the neoclassicals: their analysis of taxation as applied to economic
rent.
Hudson touches on a number of noteworthy points during the interview. He draws attention
to a historical correspondence that would probably surprise many, between high top tax rates and
strong economic growth, and observes that the top rates were high in the period prior to WWII.
Importantly, the focus of taxation in Classical Political Economy, which Hudson argues
influenced US government policy in the late 1800s and much of the first half of the 1900s, was
on confiscating economic rents. These rents include income that derives from ownership of assets
that appreciate in value merely because of the growth in national income and/or improved public
infrastructure, and not due to any participation in the production process (they arise especially
in the real estate and financial sectors).
It is not mentioned in the interview, but profit, of course, is also income that derives from
the mere ownership of assets – the means of production.
However, the classical economists were engaged in a class war with rentiers, not capitalists.
It was Marx who drew this reasoning out to its logical conclusion, and this probably goes
a long way to explaining why neoclassical theory, rather than being a continuation of classical
economics (as was often claimed once it was established), was an escape into a different conceptualization
of a capitalist economy that sought to reframe the distribution of income as the result of marginal
contributions (an attempt that failed and was the chief target and theoretical casualty of the
Cambridge Capital Controversy).
Even so, there does remain a significant distinction between profit, which relates to assets
employed in the production process, and economic rents. For this reason, Marx also distinguished
between these two categories of income and spent a great deal of space in volume 3 of Capital
analyzing the various forms of surplus value, including different types of rent.
Hudson goes on to stress that the taxation imposed in the late 1800s and first half of the
1900s was highly progressive. Initially only the top 1 percent of income earners were required
to submit tax returns. The purpose of this was to keep taxes on wages and profit low to promote
price competitiveness against lower wage countries.
This can be contrasted with neo-liberal policies of today which seem to be designed almost
with the opposite intent: to tax wage and profit income (and also consumption) but provide loopholes
or tax breaks for the recipients of economic rents.
Above all, Hudson distinguishes between what the classical economists meant by the term
"free market" and what that term has come to mean in the neo-liberal period.
Hudson emphasizes that, for the classical economists, "free market" meant a market unencumbered
by rent-based claims on income that would draw economic activity away from income production and
toward speculation.
The aim of the classical economists was to incentivize production. This is a very different
notion than the neo-liberal one of labor-market "deregulation" (meaning regulation in favor of
employers over employees), which is really just code for union smashing and an attack on real
wages, or the neo-liberal deregulation of financial markets, which is a euphemism for enabling
financial parasitism.
Hudson makes another observation in passing. The observation is not central to his argument
in the interview, but is relevant to current debates over deficits and public debt, and consistent
with MMT.
He notes that immediately prior to the commencement of the only extended period of high
capitalist growth (WWII until the late 1960s), the US population was not in debt, and in fact
had pent up savings from the war that it was waiting to spend.
By little or no debt, Hudson clarifies that he means little or no private debt. There was,
of course, a large public debt – larger as a percentage of GDP than the current US government
"debt".
This public debt did not matter, in spite of the familiar opposition to deficits and public
debt, the echoes of which can be heard today, simply because the budget deficit shrinks endogenously
once private-sector activity and income growth resume. This is precisely what happened in the
immediate postwar period.
Today, with the US government the monopoly issuer of its own flexible exchange-rate fiat currency,
public "debt" is – or rather should be – even less of an issue. Unlike in the immediate postwar
period, the government is not subject to the constraints of Bretton Woods or a similar commodity-backed
money system. It is free to utilize its fiscal capacity to the extent necessary to restore full
employment.
Government "debt" is nothing other than the accumulated net financial wealth of the non-government.
Once the non-government is ready to spend, income growth will deliver stronger revenues,
reducing the deficit. But the private sector needs to have its debt under control before it will
resume spending at levels sufficient to sustain strong economic growth.
In addition to the absence of significant private debt at the end of WWII, there were other
factors that contributed to the strong growth of the immediate postwar period, including Keynesian
demand-management policies, a progressive tax system, and significant financial regulation.
All these beneficial features of the economy were gradually undermined, and then exposed to
outright attack from the 1970s onwards.
Hudson discusses how, over time, much of the progressivity in the tax system was removed,
paving the way for the construction of the inequitable and anti-productive monster of today.
Keynesian demand-management policies were also largely eschewed throughout the neo-liberal
era on the basis of an opportunistic misinterpretation of the stagflation of the 1970s. All this
took place alongside deregulation of the financial sector and an aggressive dismantling of worker
employment protections.
The result of this neo-liberal policy mix was an increasing financialization and "rentification"
of the economy, widening income inequality, and an adherence to fiscal austerity that directly
corresponded, as a matter of accounting, to an unsustainable build up in the only US debt that
matters – private debt – and culminated in the Global Financial Crisis and Great Recession.
If the aim is to restore sustainable growth under capitalism (which is not my preferred social
system, but presumably the one commanding the allegience of policymakers), the insights obtained
from the classical economists in conjunction with the lessons of the postwar period would seem
to suggest some combination of the following policy responses: tighter regulations of speculative
activities; a more steeply progressive tax system targeted at the confiscation of economic rents
and the incentivization of production and consumption; stronger worker protections; and the abandonment
of the faulty construct of a 'government budget constraint' and a return to deficit expenditure
sufficient to underpin non-government net saving and full employment.
But the actual policy response has instead been to manipulate financial markets to engineer
a massive transfer of wealth to the rentiers and exacerbate income and wealth inequality; to continue
with the approach of taxing wage and profit income along with consumption rather than economic
rents; and possibly even to revert foolishly to austerity while the private sector remains deeply
indebted.
That's good thank you. I am thinking along the same lines:
In some way unregulated finance acts as cancer cells in human body (while this analogy is definitely
superficial it might be stimulating for thinking about neoliberalism):
Uncontrollable growth detached from real economics ("casino capitalism" with its proliferation
of hedge funds, private equity firms, derivatives, credit default swaps and similar instruments).
Suppression of immune system so that this uncontrollable growth should not be checked (aka
deregulation, capture of economics departments, an army of neoliberal think tanks)
Like cancel creates a blood network to stimulate its own growth, finance also diverts lion
share of resource in the economy for its own consumption -- casino consumption.
Very difficult to fight and can reoccur if treatment was insufficient or ineffective.
The Surge Delusion: An Iraq War Anniversary to Forget
By Danny Sjursen
The other day, I found myself flipping through old photos
from my time in Iraq. One in particular from October 2006
stood out. I see my 23-year-old self, along with my platoon.
We're still at Camp Buerhing in Kuwait, posing in front of
our squadron logo splashed across a huge concrete barrier. It
was a tradition by then, three and a half years after the
invasion of neighboring Iraq, for every Army, Marine, and
even Air Force battalion at that camp to proudly paint its
unit emblem on one of those large, ubiquitous barricades.
Gazing at that photo, it's hard for me to believe that it
was taken a decade ago. Those were Iraq's bad old days, just
before General David Petraeus's fabled "surge" campaign that
has since become the stuff of legend, a defining event for
American military professionals. The term has permanently
entered the martial lexicon and now it's everywhere. We
soldiers stay late at work because we need to "surge" on the
latest PowerPoint presentation. To inject extra effort into
anything (no matter how mundane) is to "surge." Nor is the
term's use limited to the military vernacular. Within the
first few weeks of the Trump administration, the Wall Street
Journal, for instance, reported on a deportation "surge."
For many career soldiers, the surge era (2007-2011)
provides a kind of vindication for all those years of effort
and seeming failure, a brief window into what might have been
and a proof certain of the enduring utility of force. When it
comes to that long-gone surge, senior leaders still talk the
talk on its alleged success as though reciting scripture.
Take retired general, surge architect, and former CIA
Director Petraeus. As recently as 2013, he wrote a Foreign
Policy piece entitled "How We Won in Iraq." Now "win" is a
bold word indeed. Yet few in our American world would think
to question its accuracy. After all, Petraeus was a general,
and in an era when Americans have little or no faith in other
public institutions, polls show nearly everyone trusts the
military. Of course, no one asks whether this is healthy for
the republic. No matter, the surge's success is, by now, a
given among Washington's policy elite.
Recently, for instance, I listened to a podcast of a
Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) panel discussion that
promoted a common set of myths about the glories of the
surge. What I heard should be shocking, but it's not. The
group peddled a common myth about the surge's inherent wisdom
that may soon become far more dangerous in the "go big"
military era of Donald Trump.
CFR's three guests -- retired General Raymond Odierno,
former commander of Multinational Forces in Iraq and now a
senior adviser to JPMorgan Chase; Meghan O'Sullivan, former
deputy national security adviser under President George W.
Bush; and Christopher Kojm, former senior adviser to the Iraq
Study Group -- had remarkably similar views. No dissenting
voices were included. All three had been enthusiastic
promoters of the surge in 2006-2007 and continue to market
the myth of its success. While recognizing the unmistakable
failure of the post-surge American effort in Iraq, each still
firmly believes in the inherent validity of that "strategy."
I listened for more than an hour waiting for a single
dissenting thought. The silence was deafening.
Establishing the Bona Fides of Victory in Washington, If
Not Iraq
With the madness of the 24-hour news cycle pin-balling us
from one Trump "crisis" to another, who has time for honest
reflection about that surge on its 10th anniversary? Few even
remember the controversy, turmoil, and drama of those days,
but believe me, it's something I'll never forget. I led a
scout platoon in Baghdad and my unit was a few months into a
nasty deployment when we first heard the term "surge." Iraq
was by then falling apart and violence was at an all-time
high with insurgents killing scores of Americans each month.
The nascent central government, supported by the Bush
administration, was in turmoil and, to top it all off, the
Sunni and Shia were already fighting a civil war in the
streets.
In November 2006, just a month into our deployment,
Democrats won control over both houses of Congress in what
was interpreted as a negative referendum on that war. A
humbler, more reticent or reflective president might have
backed off, cut his losses, and begun a withdrawal from that
country, but not George W. Bush. He doubled down, announcing
in January 2007 an infusion of 30,000 additional troops and a
new "strategy" for victory, a temporary surge that would
provide time, space, and security for the new Iraqi
government to reconcile the country's warring ethnic groups
and factions, while incorporating minority groups into the
largely Shiite, Baghdad-based power structure.
Soon after, my unit along with nearly every other American
already in theater received word that our tours had been
extended by three months -- 15 months in all, which then
seemed like an eternity. I sat against a wall and
chain-smoked nearly a pack of cigarettes before passing the
word on to my platoon. And so it began.
Less than nine months later, the administration paraded
General Petraeus, decked out in full dress uniform, at
congressional hearings to plug the strategy, sell the surge,
and warn against a premature withdrawal from Iraq. What a
selling job it proved to be. It established the bona fides of
victory in Washington, if not Iraq.
The man was compelling and over the next three years
violence did, in fact, drop. The additional troops and "new"
counterinsurgency tactics were, however, only part of the
story. In an orgy of killing in Baghdad and many other
cities, the two main sects ethnically cleansed neighborhoods,
expelling each other into a series of highly segregated
enclaves. The capital, for instance, essentially became a
Shiite city. In a sense, the civil war had, momentarily at
least, run its course.
In addition, the U.S. military had successfully, though
again only temporarily, convinced many previously rebellious
Sunni tribes to switch sides in exchange for money, support,
and help in getting rid of the overly fundamentalist and
brutal terror outfit, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). For the time
being, AQI seemed to the tribal leaders like a bigger threat
than the Shiites in Baghdad. For this, the Sunnis briefly bet
on the U.S. without ever fully trusting or accepting
Shiite-Baghdad's suzerainty. Think of this as a tactical
pause -- not that the surge's architects and supporters saw
(or see) it that way.
Which brings us back to that CFR panel. The most essential
assumption of all three speakers was this: the U.S. needed to
establish "security first" in Iraq before that country's
government, set in place by the American occupation, could
begin to make political progress. They still don't seem to
understand that, whatever the bright hopes of surge
enthusiasts at the time, no true political settlement was
ever likely, with or without the surge.
America's man in Baghdad, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki,
was already in the process of becoming a sectarian strongman,
hell-bent on alienating the country's Sunni and Kurdish
minorities. Even 60,000 or 90,000 more American troops
couldn't have solved that problem because the surge was
incapable of addressing, and barely pretended to face, the
true conundrum of the invasion and occupation: any
American-directed version of Iraqi "democracy" would
invariably usher in Shia-majority dominance over a largely
synthetic state. The real question no surge cheerleaders
publicly asked (or ask to this day) was whether an invading
foreign entity was even capable of imposing an inclusive
political settlement there. To assume that the United States
could have done so smacks of a faith-based as opposed to
reality-based worldview -- another version of a deep and
abiding belief in American exceptionalism.
'Superstar Firms' May Have Shrunk Workers'
Share of Income
https://nyti.ms/2mGiVmQ
NYT - PATRICIA COHEN - MARCH 8, 2017
For much of the last century it seemed that the slice of
the total economic pie going to workers was - like the speed
of light - constant. No matter what the economy's makeup,
labor could collectively depend on taking home roughly
two-thirds of the country's total output as compensation for
its efforts. Workers' unchanging share, the economist John
Maynard Keynes declared in 1939, was "one of the most
surprising, yet best-established, facts in the whole range of
economic statistics."
But in recent decades, that steady share - which includes
everything from the chief executive's bonuses and stock
options to the parking-lot attendant's minimum wage and tips
- started to flutter. In the 2000s, it slipped significantly.
Although the numbers have inched up in the last couple of
years, labor's portion has not risen above 59 percent since
before the recession.
The decline has coincided with a slowdown in overall
growth as well as a stark leap in inequality. "Labor is
getting a shrinking slice of a pie that's not growing very
much," David Autor, an economist at M.I.T., said. It is a
development that is upending political establishments and
economic policies in the United States and abroad.
The reason for workers' shrinking portion of the economy's
rewards is puzzling.
Shrinking Labor Share
(graph at link)
The labor share is the percentage of economic output that
accrues to workers in the form of compensation.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Some economists argue that technological advancements are
to blame as employers have replaced workers with machines.
Others point to trade powered by cheap foreign labor, a view
championed by President Trump that particularly resonated
among voters.
Alternate culprits include tax policies that treat
investment income more favorably than wages; flagging skills
and education that have rendered workers less productive or
unsuited to an information- and service-based economy; or a
weakening of labor unions that has chipped away at workers'
bargaining power and protections.
Over the last 15 years, for example, labor productivity
has grown faster than wages, a sign that workers are not
being adequately compensated for their contributions. And
some industries have fared worse than others. Slices of the
pie going to mining and manufacturing narrowed the most,
while service workers (including professional and business
services) had the biggest gains. ...
---
Instead of a robot tax, @Noahpinion suggests sharing the
profits they create
http://bv.ms/2lPl7HC
via @Bloomberg - Noah Smith - February 28, 2017
Microsoft Corp. founder Bill Gates made a splash in a
recent interview, when he suggested that robots should be
taxed in order to help humans keep their jobs:
'Right now, the human worker who does, say, $50,000 worth
of work in a factory, that income is taxed and you get income
tax, social security tax, all those things. If a robot comes
in to do the same thing, you'd think that we'd tax the robot
at a similar level.'
Gates is only one of many people in the tech world who
have worried about automation and its threat to workers. ...
The nattering nabobs' wild, unfounded,
guilt by association conspiracy theory that OMG! the "Russians are coming with Trump" has been
okay for the past 9 month, now that the president is uncovering the deep state's assault on the Bill
of Rights conspiracy theories are an issue!
If Obama's Stalinist candidate had won it would be already be too late save America's liberty!
"... corporate inversions is a gigantic canard. The easy way to do this is to eliminate the repatriation tax (another GOP goal) and to beef up transfer pricing enforcement. ..."
Auerbach goes US centric: "This reform should appeal broadly,
to Democrats and Republicans alike. The border adjustments
would strongly discourage the shifting of profits and
activities offshore and eliminate incentives for corporate
inversions."
(1) it would make the US a tax haven as it
effectively eliminates the corporate profits tax replacing it
with a sales tax - a long time Republican goal. Shifting of
profits would still occur but the transfer pricing
manipulation games would be at the expense of Canada, Mexico,
China, Japan, and Europe.
(2) corporate inversions is a gigantic canard. The easy
way to do this is to eliminate the repatriation tax (another
GOP goal) and to beef up transfer pricing enforcement.
There is a reason why many progressive groups oppose this
overly complex canard. We have not given up on taxing the
profits of the multinationals. Auerbach's tax is being pushed
by Paul Ryan as his goal to never tax corporate profits.
Alas, Paul Ryan cannot be honest about this goal so he sends
out Auerbach to muddle the discussion.
The border-adjusted tax seems like a clever way to manipulate
forex in the short-term, but I question the underlying
premise that the U.S. is such an important producer &
consumer that the rest of the world will be forced to play
the game.
It seems to me that a lot of countries, looking at
President Turnip's nixing of the multilateral deals, and his
insistence that separate countries must now go mano-a-mano
with him on a new TV show, "The Trade Apprentice", are far
more likely to suppress the nausea and say, "Forget it."
The Chinese should welcome the U.S. border adjustment as
another advertisement that it is better for these countries
to change the channel -- to join into a new global trade pact
without the U.S. Less instability, less nuttiness, less crass
behavior, and also, China is poised to become a world
technology leader.
At that moment, monies that Auerbach & Devereux are hoping
will be repatriated to the U.S. may decide to stay in
offshore accounts instead, looking to invest for a better
short-term ROI in a country that is dealing with the Chinese
pact.
"but I question the underlying premise that the U.S. is such
an important producer & consumer that the rest of the world
will be forced to play the game."
You may be right but
right now the U.S. has a trade deficit so it buys more from
other nations. These nations need the U.S.'s consumer market.
With the BAT, corporations like Apple and drug companies
couldn't play tax avoidance games and so would return
production to the U.S. This would boost U.S. manufacturing
employment.
If the Fed didn't tighten too quickly this would boost
wages and living standards.
Corporations would lose out on labor and regulation
arbitration with poorer nations like China which they
accomplish by outsourcing.
This is why Ryan's plan probably won't pass. Also
importers like the Koch brothers and Walmart don't trust that
a rising dollar would negate the competitive effect of the
import tax.
"corporations like Apple and drug companies couldn't play tax
avoidance games and so would return production to the U.S."
Neither statement is true. DBCFT would make tax avoidance
easier. And Apple would still assemble goods in China. BTW -
many drug companies outsource their production.
Would the Destination Based Cash Flow Tax make U.S. companies
more competitive and if so – why? It is not the effective
repeal of the corporate profits tax that would do the trick
as PeterK turned supply-sider is now asserting. No – it is
the implicit labor subsidy.
But wait – let's hear from the
architect of this proposal himself:
"On the other hand, border adjustments lack some other
apparent benefits that have been attributed to them. In
particular, border adjustments, in themselves, should not
influence international trade, either by discouraging imports
or encouraging exports. The belief that they do have these
influences on international trade has proved to be something
of a mixed blessing, not only generating support for their
adoption but also leading critics to conclude that they
violate generally accepted norms of international taxation."
He argues that the exchange rate would so appreciate as to
exactly offset the labor subsidy. Of course PeterK yesterday
tried to tell us that a dollar appreciate would boost
Boeing's exports. But what would you expect from a
supply-sider?
I guess there was a different PeterK who suggested repealing
the corporate profits tax would lead to an export boom just
yesterday. You are all over the map clueless as to what any
of this is about. As usual.
But I love this:
"PGL goes on and on about how tax reform would be a boon
to Boeing."
DBCFT is not exactly tax reform. It would eliminate
Boeing's tax bill entirely. Do you even have a clue what they
pay in Federal taxes now? Didn't think so.
1. Study reports results which reinforce the dominant,
politically correct, narrative.
2. Study is widely cited in other academic work, lionized in the
popular press, and used to advance real world agendas.
3. Study fails to replicate, but no one (except a few careful and
independent thinkers) notices.
#1 is spot-on for economics. Woe be to she who bucks the dominant
narrative. In economics, something else happens. Following the study,
there are 20 piggy-back papers which test for the same results on
other data. The original authors typically get to referee these
papers, so if you're a young researcher looking for a publication,
look no further. You've just guaranteed yourself the rarest of gifts
-- a friendly referee who will likely go to bat for you. Just make
sure your results are similar to theirs. If not, you might want to
shelve your project, or else try 100 other specifications until you
get something that "works". One trick I learned: You can bury a
robustness check which overturns the main results deep in the paper,
and your referee who is emotionally invested in the benchmark result
for sure won't read that far. ...
Most researchers in Economics go their entire careers without
criticizing anyone else in their field, except as an anonymous
referee, where they tend to let out their pent-up aggression. Journals
shy away from publishing comment papers, as I
found out first-hand
. In fact, much if not a majority of the
papers published in top economics journals are probably wrong, and yet
the field soldiers on like a drunken sailor. Often, many people "in
the know" realize that many big papers have fatal flaws, but have
every incentive not to point this out and create enemies, or to waste
their time writing up something which journals don't really want to
publish (the editor doesn't want to piss a colleague off either). As a
result, many of these false results end up getting taught to
generations of students. Indeed, I was taught a number of these flawed
papers as both an undergraduate and a grad student.
Intertrial priming allows an accumulation of effects from
iterations of trials. ceu
If we see fed governors
repeatedly drop rates when dollar becomes 22% stronger, we
could soon assume that rates and dollar strength are
indirectly related. Are new import taxes about to increase
the $ strength by 22%? will this retard FG hawks? What will
the shake out be for investments? For treasuries vs. common
stock?
But it would
seem that fields that don't rely heavily on controlled
experiments, as in the "hard" sciences, might be more
vulnerable to this kind of issue. But only marginally so,
because bad controlled experimental data does also exist.
Either way, it's a bit of a comic irony that the field of
economics hasn't found good ways to address this. Isn't
identifying in clear-eyed terms and addressing market
failures kind of your thing, Econ?
Actually, the seminal paper on this issue is Ioannidis (2005)
"Why most published research findings are false," PloS
Medicine, vol 2, issue 8, e124, is about biomedical research.
However, Andrew Gelman has lots to say on the topic regarding
social sciences.
"In fact, much if not a majority of the papers published in
top economics journals are probably wrong, and yet the field
soldiers on like a drunken sailor."
It's possible I have a
new hero. Unless writing from Moscow he's a Putin plant.
"1. Study reports results which reinforce the
dominant, politically correct, narrative.
2. Study is widely cited in other academic work, lionized in
the popular press, and used to advance real world agendas.
3. Study fails to replicate, but no one (except a few careful
and independent thinkers) notices."
Leave it to Cato to write "Do Budget Deficits Raise
Long-Term Interest Rates?" which is a great example of (2).
That's right – Evans got this intellectual garbage
published in the American Economic Review in 1985 over the
objections of many sensible economists. But Barro-Ricardian
equivalence was the politically correct view among the
anti-Keynesian New Classical types who ruled back then. Evans
wanted us to believe that the Reagan fiscal stimulus would
not raise real interest rates as the rich people who got
those massive tax cuts would not consume their new after-tax
income. Of course, consumption as a share of national income
soared as they did spend their tax cuts. So what was Evans
evidence? Interest rates did not rise as the deficit soared?
Wait real interest rates did rise from around 2% to 6%. Evans
measured the wrong interest rate (nominal) and he overstated
fiscal stimulus by using the actual deficit during a period
of overall weak aggregate demand. But the AER published this
intellectual garbage anyway. At least people have noticed
that this stupid paper was not replicated (#3).
If it is not replicable it is religion, not science.
People have deep need for a belief system. The right has
an invisible being in the sky. The left has math models that
cannot be verified, aka social science and economic.
If there is not a double blind clinical trial or similarly
replicable result, don't bet your career or legacy on it.
It might be interesting to look at history of neoclassical
economics from this perspective.
Hyman Minsky critique of
neoclassical economics remains relevant -- it is a junk
science. There no place of any math equations connecting of
supply and demand without taking into account the existence
of financial system and its dominant influence on markets. In
this sense book-bust cycle under capitalism is an immanent
feature due to positive feedback loop introduced by financial
system.
another important issue to reconsider is the role of
banks. If it is difficult to make private banks profitable if
they operate under strict regulation it might be no place for
private banks at all.
Current "private banks" are actually corrupt and criminal
private-public partnerships acting on the principle
"privatize profits -- shift to public all the debts".
"... Three in ten (29 percent) Americans report problems paying medical bills, and these problems come with real consequences for some. For example, among those reporting problems paying medical bills, seven in ten (73 percent) report cutting back spending on food, clothing, or basic household items. ..."
"... Challenges affording care also result in some Americans saying they have delayed or skipped care due to costs in the past year, including 27 percent who say they have put off or postponed getting health care they needed, 23 percent who say they have skipped a recommended medical test or treatment, and 21 percent who say they have not filled a prescription for a medicine. ..."
Americans' Challenges with Health Care Costs
By Bianca DiJulio, Ashley Kirzinger, Bryan Wu, and Mollyann
Brodie
As lawmakers debate the future of the country's health
care system and outline plans to repeal and replace the
Affordable Care Act, much of the current debate surrounds how
to change or eliminate the health insurance marketplaces
developed under the ACA where individuals eligible for
financial assistance could compare plans and purchase
insurance. While this is an important source of coverage for
some, the vast majority of Americans with insurance have
coverage from other sources, such as an employer, Medicaid or
Medicare, and the public's top priority for lawmakers is
reducing what Americans pay for health care. Two recent
Kaiser Health Tracking Polls take stock of the public's
current experience with and worries about health care costs,
including their ability to afford premiums and deductibles.
For the most part, the majority of the public does not have
difficulty paying for care, but significant minorities do,
and even more worry about their ability to afford care in the
future. Some of the key findings include:
Four in ten (43 percent) adults with health insurance say
they have difficulty affording their deductible, and roughly
a third say they have trouble affording their premiums and
other cost sharing; all shares have increased since 2015.
Three in ten (29 percent) Americans report problems
paying medical bills, and these problems come with real
consequences for some. For example, among those reporting
problems paying medical bills, seven in ten (73 percent)
report cutting back spending on food, clothing, or basic
household items.
Challenges affording care also result in some
Americans saying they have delayed or skipped care due to
costs in the past year, including 27 percent who say they
have put off or postponed getting health care they needed, 23
percent who say they have skipped a recommended medical test
or treatment, and 21 percent who say they have not filled a
prescription for a medicine.
Even for those who may not have had difficulty affording
care or paying medical bills, there is still a widespread
worry about being able to afford needed health care services,
with half of the public expressing worry about this.
Health care-related worries and problems paying for care
are particularly prevalent among the uninsured, individuals
with lower incomes, and those in poorer health; but women and
members of racial minority groups are also more likely than
their peers to report these issues....
"For example, among those reporting problems paying medical
bills, seven in ten (73 percent) report cutting back spending
on food, clothing, or basic household items."
That's what
the neoliberals like our dear trolls kthomas and PGL want.
What we observe now (completely broken and corrupt to the core system) is
the result of long term term slow deterioration.
Now the US Healthdoesn'tcare in many cases represent the completely opposite practice to healthcare
-- health racket.
And they even created their specialized firms that help to extract maximum dollars for private
providers.
An interesting example of how pervert the USA healthcare system became in the USA under neoliberalism
is proliferation of private ambulance services which are technically are always "out of network"
and after providing services (often non-essential and equal to the ride to ER, but mostly unavoidable
as soon as 911 service or traffic police is involved, especially for those who are in this situation
for the first time ) they bill an outrageous amount to lemmings who do not know how to fight the
system.
Average private ambulance bill is probably around $5K in the USA. And that if this was just a
ride to ER.
If you have insurance it will pay around the same as Medicare and your bill will be around ~$3.5K
This so called differential billing in now outlawed in a couple of states (CA, partially NY),
but still is legal in most other states.
This industry also creates specialized collector agencies that deal almost exclusively with collecting
ambulance bills like Revenue Guard - Ambulance Billing & Financial Management (
https://www.revenue-guard.com/).
And
look who is at the helm of this wonder of neoliberal health industry (pretty profitable -- currently
bills over 120 million in revenue annually taking in probably lion share of that) -- James J. Loures,
President & CEO
James began his career as a broker on Wall Street. In 1984 he left the financial world and
founded MultiCare, which grew to be a largest private EMS operation in the Northeast operating
140 ambulances in the New Jersey, New York, and Philadelphia region.
Is not neoliberalism wonderful social system ?
So when somebody is taking about destruction of the US health care system by Trump one needs to
understand that there is not much left to destruct. Most of the heavy lifting was done by previous
administrations.
Including Obama with his coward method of betrayal of his voters and serving medical industrial
complex.
Trump is bad, but to claim that because of that Obama was good is silly. He was just a perfect
example of neoliberal "bait and switch" politician.
New head of some of the best progressives covering tax
issues. Recently I put over at Econospeak an excellent
discussion of the Destination Based Cash Flow Tax where ITEP
and CTJ provides well thought out criticisms (shhh - don't
tell PeterK as he will just get angry):
ITEP and CTJ Boards
Announce Alan Essig as New Executive Director
Robert McIntyre, CTJ's long-time executive director, will
retire and former ITEP executive director Matthew Gardner
will be a senior fellow
The Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy Board of
Directors and the Citizens for Tax Justice Board of Directors
are pleased to announce that Alan Essig has been named the
next executive director of both organizations. Robert
McIntyre, director of CTJ, will retire effective March 31,
and Matthew Gardner, former executive director of ITEP, has
assumed the position of senior fellow. Mr. Essig will begin
his new role on April 3, 2017.
This transition comes after a national search and an
organizational review designed to consolidate, advance and
strengthen both organizations.
"ITEP and CTJ have been leading voices for progressive tax
policy on both the state and national levels for decades, and
I am honored to be the next executive director," Mr. Essig
said. "A fair and adequate tax system is the cornerstone of a
just society and has defined the work of these organizations.
I am excited to be leading a team of extraordinary
professionals who are working to assure that elected
officials, the media, and the public have access to the
accurate, timely, and accessible information that is
necessary to promote an equitable tax system."
pgl -> pgl...
, -1
My tribute to these progressives also addressed the weakness
of the Dean Baker BMW "classic example":
"Then there's corporate tax
reform - an issue where the plan being advanced by Paul Ryan,
the House speaker, is actually not too bad, at least in
principle. Even some Democratic-leaning economists support a
shift to a "destination-based cash flow tax,"* which is best
thought of as a sales tax plus a payroll subsidy. (Trust
me.**)
But Mr. Ryan has failed spectacularly to make his case
either to colleagues or to powerful interest groups. Why? As
best I can tell, it's because he himself doesn't understand
the point of the reform.
The case for the cash flow tax is quite technical; among
other things, it would remove the incentives the current tax
system creates for corporations to load up on debt and to
engage in certain kinds of tax avoidance. But that's not the
kind of thing Republicans talk about - if anything, they're
in favor of tax avoidance, hence the Trump proposal to slash
funding for the I.R.S.
No, in G.O.P. world, tax ideas always have to be presented
as ways to remove the shackles from oppressed job creators.
So Mr. Ryan has framed his proposal, basically falsely, as a
measure to make American industry more competitive, focusing
on the "border tax adjustment" which is part of the sales-tax
component of the reform.
This misrepresentation seems, however, to be backfiring:
it sounds like a Trumpist tariff, and has both conservatives
and retailers like WalMart up in arms.
...
They may give up on anything resembling a principled tax
reform, and just throw a few trillion dollars at rich people
instead.
But whatever the eventual outcome, what we're witnessing
is what happens when a party that gave up hard thinking in
favor of empty sloganeering ends up in charge of actual
policy. And it's not a pretty sight."
The American corporate tax system is broken. Faced with
one of the highest tax rates in the world, many multinational
corporations in the United States move their operations and
reported profits offshore or undertake "inversions" to
relinquish their American tax nationality. Elaborate
regulatory and enforcement measures have been unable to stop
this. Vilifying companies for their behavior hasn't worked,
either.
Fortunately, bipartisan support for corporate tax reform
has been growing in Washington. In place of the old system,
Republicans in the House of Representatives have proposed
adopting a tax - the destination-based cash-flow tax - that
would be levied on the domestic cash flows of all businesses
operating or selling here. (Your domestic cash flow is your
revenues in the United States minus the wages, salaries and
purchases you pay for in the United States.) This would mean
introducing "border adjustments" to the current system -
exempting exports from tax, but taxing imports.
This reform should appeal broadly, to Democrats and
Republicans alike. The border adjustments would strongly
discourage the shifting of profits and activities offshore
and eliminate incentives for corporate inversions. (The
proposal would also eliminate incentives for companies to
borrow excessively and strengthen the tax benefits for
investing in plants and equipment.) But there remains much
misplaced criticism of the reform and its potential, and much
misunderstanding about who the winners and losers will be if
it is adopted.
Some critics, including President Trump at one time, have
claimed that the new system would be too complicated. On the
contrary, the tax would be much simpler than our current
arrangement. By basing a company's tax liability exclusively
on its domestic cash flows, the new system would replace the
much more complex calculation of a company's income that
takes place now, which must also account for offshore and
cross-border transactions. And because the tax would
eliminate incentives for companies to shift operations and
profits offshore, it could dispose of the raft of complex tax
and regulatory measures developed over the years to
discourage such tactics.
Other critics, particularly those on the political left,
have expressed concern that the tax isn't progressive enough.
But it promises to be more progressive than the current
United States corporate tax system: Its burdens would fall
squarely on the owners of corporate capital rather than - as
happens to some extent now - on American workers, whose wages
suffer from the flight of productive investment capital to
lower-tax countries.
Importers have also criticized the tax, arguing that the
border adjustments would lead to a major redistribution of
income away from sectors of the economy based on import
shares and toward those based on export shares. This is the
biggest misconception about the tax. In truth, importing
industries should expect on the whole to experience a shift
in the composition of their costs rather than an overall
increase in their costs. The reason is that under the new tax
system, the dollar should appreciate relative to the
currencies of our trading partners (in response to the
changing incentives for American firms to export and import).
A stronger dollar would make imports cheaper, offsetting the
increase in taxes paid.
Of course, corporate tax reform would result in winners
and losers. But the gains and losses would derive mostly from
the increased profitability of American operations and the
lost opportunities to avoid paying United States taxes.
Free-market critics of the tax have suggested that border
adjustments are tariffs and would thus erect trade barriers.
This is also untrue. The border adjustments would merely
shift taxation from where products are made to where they are
sold. This, again, would encourage companies to locate their
productive activities and profits in the United States.
(Countries around the world use such border adjustments every
day as components of value-added taxes that are collected at
the location of purchases rather than production.)
For the United States corporate tax to be a viable source
of revenue, it must be reinvented. Intense tax competition
for profits, production and jobs, in the form of other
countries' sharply declining corporate tax rates and a host
of favorable tax provisions, has been little hindered by
international efforts to slow the process.
The United States faces a choice: to mark time as our
competitive position worsens, to join this race to the bottom
or to take forceful action that replaces our corporate tax
system with one that aligns with the national interest. Our
decision should be clear. We need to adjust to new ideas like
a destination-based cash-flow tax. In the end, the short-run
economic adjustments required would be a small price to pay
for an enduring, fair and rational tax system.
----------------------
Alan Auerbach is a professor of economics and law at the
University of California, Berkeley. Michael Devereux is a
professor at Oxford University's Said Business School.
"... Probably the most telling example on neoliberal transformation is transformation of healthcare. ..."
"... Mulligan's research shows how "market values come to displace competing notions of what is "good" or "right" in health care" (Mulligan 2010:308–309). She argues that quality in health care is not only a technical matter for evaluating the performance of systems, but, more importantly, it is a particular epistemology, a specific way of knowing. ..."
"... Managing for-profit health care systems successfully requires innovative mechanisms of population control (Abadía-Barrero et al. 2011), including people's acceptance of market principles. ..."
"... In this historical context, what is crucial is the understanding of the relationship between techniques of governance and the production of social inequality (i.e., an ideological domination reflected in people's support for political practices that are antithetical to their interests). ..."
"... James began his career as a broker on Wall Street. In 1984 he left the financial world and founded MultiCare, which grew to be a largest private EMS operation in the Northeast operating 140 ambulances in the New Jersey, New York, and Philadelphia region. ..."
Several anthropologists have written about how "market ideology and corporate structures
are shaping medicine and health care delivery" (Horton et al. 2014; Lamphere 2005; Rylko-Bauer
and Farmer 2002:476).
Mulligan's research shows how "market values come to displace competing notions of what
is "good" or "right" in health care" (Mulligan 2010:308–309). She argues that quality in health
care is not only a technical matter for evaluating the performance of systems, but, more importantly,
it is a particular epistemology, a specific way of knowing.
The information that is produced in technical public health policy terms, and, I would add,
in technical legal terms, is "a knowledge-making practice that creates information about the
health care system and for managing the system in new ways" (Mulligan 2010:309).
Managing for-profit health care systems successfully requires innovative mechanisms
of population control (Abadía-Barrero et al. 2011), including people's acceptance of market
principles.
In this historical context, what is crucial is the understanding of the relationship
between techniques of governance and the production of social inequality (i.e., an ideological
domination reflected in people's support for political practices that are antithetical to their
interests).
According to Fassin (2009), Foucault's undeveloped concept of a Politics of Life can illuminate
how in regulating populations and normalizing societies, moral ideas about the meaning of life
and about how life is valued are enforced.
An understanding of moral definitions of human life must take into account how history becomes
embodied, which then illuminates the political tensions that support differential values by
which life is organized, represented, and responded to, for example through public policy (Fassin
2007).
An interesting example of how pervert the healthcare system became in the USA under neoliberalism
is proliferation of private ambulance services which are technically always "out of network" and
after providing services (often non-essential) bill outrageous amount to lemmings who do not know
how to fight the system. Average private ambulance bill is probably around $5K in the USA. If
you have insurance your bill will be around ~$3.5K
This so called differential billing in now outlawed in a couple of states, but still is legal
in most states.
This industry also creates specialized collector agencies that deal almost exclusively with
collecting ambulance bills like Revenue Guard - Ambulance Billing & Financial Management (
https://www.revenue-guard.com/)
== quote ==
Revenue Guard Executive Team
James J. Loures, President & CEO James began his career as a broker on Wall Street. In 1984 he left the financial world and
founded MultiCare, which grew to be a largest private EMS operation in the Northeast operating
140 ambulances in the New Jersey, New York, and Philadelphia region. After merging MultiCare
with the publicly traded Rural-Metro in 2001, James then founded Revenue-Guard in 2004. The company
has grown to be a premier provider of EMS revenue cycle and management services in the hospital
marketplace, and currently bills over 120 million in revenue annually for their clients. James
studied economics at Rutgers University .
Steven J. Loures, Co-Founder and Chief Operations Officer
Steven Loures has 30 years of experience in the Emergency Medical Services / Mobile Health Services
field and is considered an expert in revenue cycle, compliance and improving ambulance service
operating margins. His real-world revenue cycle knowledge combined with 20 years of managing ambulance
operations uniquely differentiates himself with a comprehensive industry perspective. His leadership
has provided client confidence to initiate targeted change knowing his proven track record. He
is the point of contact for all new and existing clients.
Prior to his current role Steven was the New Jersey Division General Manager of Rural Metro
Ambulance. Rural Metro is a large nationwide provider of Emergency Medical Services. He was responsible
for oversight of 350 employees, 6 operating locations in three states including New Jersey, Pennsylvania
and New York City. Additionally, Steven's responsibilities included all budgets, revenue cycle
management, billing compliance, and Sarbanes Oxley financial controls.
Prior to Rural Metro Steven was a Commercial Lear Jet Pilot. The operation provided nationwide
long distance critical care air ambulance services. Steven graduated from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical
University, Daytona Beach Florida with his Federal Aviation Administration Commercial, Multi-Engine,
and Instrument ratings. Early in his career path Steven was a certified NJ paramedic at age 21
and one of the youngest certified paramedics in New Jersey.
Stephanie Dall, Vice President of Finance
Stephanie joined Revenue-Guard in 2005 and is responsible for Finance, Administration, Compliance
and client reporting. She has 20 years experience in finance and administration with Rural-Metro
Inc. the leading EMS provider in the nation. Stephanie develops budgets and establish performance
metrics for Revenue-Guard. Stephanie has a bachelors degree in accounting from Rutgers University.
Jennifer Aldana, Vice President of Revenue Cycle
Jennifer joined Revenue-Guard in 2007 to manage and run the billing services division. She manages
a staff of 60 billing specialist processing over $120M in ambulance claims annually. Jennifer
is a former revenue cycle manager at Rural-Metro The country's largest EMS service based in Scottsdale,
Arizona. She handles all system customizations, ePCR integration and client support services.
Jen studied at Pace University in New York City.
"... His prescription in the end is the old and tired "invest in education and retraining", i.e. "symbolic analyst jobs will replace the lost jobs" like they have for decades (not). ..."
"... "Governments will, however, have to concern themselves with problems of structural joblessness. They likely will need to take a more explicit role in ensuring full employment than has been the practice in the US." ..."
"... Instead, we have been shredding the safety net and job training / creation programs. There is plenty of work that needs to be done. People who have demand for goods and services find them unaffordable because the wealthy are capturing all the profits and use their wealth to capture even more. Trade is not the problem for US workers. Lack of investment in the US workforce is the problem. We don't invest because the dominant white working class will not support anything that might benefit blacks and minorities, even if the major benefits go to the white working class ..."
"... Really nice if your sitting in the lunch room of the University. Especially if you are a member of the class that has been so richly awarded, rather than the class who paid for it. Humph. The discussion is garbage, Political opinion by a group that sat by ... The hypothetical nuance of impossible tax policy. ..."
"... The concept of Robots leaving us destitute, is interesting. A diversion. It ain't robots who are harvesting the middle class. It is an entitled class of those who gave so little. ..."
"... Summers: "Let them eat training." ..."
"... Suddenly then, Bill Gates has become an accomplished student of public policy who can command an audience from Lawrence Summers who was unable to abide by the likes of the prophetic Brooksley Born who was chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or the prophetic professor Raghuram Rajan who would become Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. Agreeing with Bill Gates however is a "usual" for Summers. ..."
"... Until about a decade or so ago many states I worked in had a "tangible property" or "personal property" tax on business equipment, and sometimes on equipment + average inventory. Someday I will do some research and see how many states still do this. Anyway a tax on manufacturing equipment, retail fixtures and computers and etc. is hardly novel or unusual. So why would robots be any different? ..."
"... Thank you O glorious technocrats for shining the light of truth on humanity's path into the future! Where, oh where, would we be without our looting Benevolent Overlords and their pompous lapdogs (aka Liars in Public Places)? ..."
"... While he is overrated, he is not completely clueless. He might well be mediocre (or slightly above this level) but extremely arrogant defender of the interests of neoliberal elite. Rubin's boy Larry as he was called in the old days. ..."
"... BTW he was Rubin's hatchet man for eliminating Brooksley Born attempt to regulate the derivatives and forcing her to resign: ..."
Larry Summers:
Robots
are wealth creators and taxing them is illogical : I usually agree with Bill Gates on matters
of public policy and admire his emphasis on the combined power of markets and technology. But I think
he went seriously astray in a recent interview when he proposed, without apparent irony, a tax on
robots to cushion worker dislocation and limit inequality. ....
Has Summers gone all supply-side on his? Start with his title:
"Robots are wealth creators and taxing them is illogical"
I bet Bill Gates might reply – "my company is a wealth creator so it should not be taxed".
Oh wait – Microsoft is already shifting profits to tax havens. Summers states:
"Third, and perhaps most fundamentally, why tax in ways that reduce the size of the pie rather
than ways that assure that the larger pie is well distributed? Imagine that 50 people can produce
robots who will do the work of 100. A sufficiently high tax on robots would prevent them from
being produced."
Summers makes one, and only one, good and relevant point - that in many cases, robots/automation
will not produce more product from the same inputs but better products. That's in his words; I
would replace "better" with "more predictable quality/less variability" - in both directions.
And that the more predictable quality aspect is hard or impossible to distinguish from higher
productivity (in some cases they may be exactly the same, e.g. by streamlining QA and reducing
rework/pre-sale repairs).
His prescription in the end is the old and tired "invest in education and retraining", i.e.
"symbolic analyst jobs will replace the lost jobs" like they have for decades (not).
Pundits do not write titles, editors do. Tax the profits, not the robots.
The crux of the argument is this:
"Governments will, however, have to concern themselves with problems of structural joblessness.
They likely will need to take a more explicit role in ensuring full employment than has been
the practice in the US."
Instead, we have been shredding the safety net and job training / creation programs. There
is plenty of work that needs to be done. People who have demand for goods and services find them
unaffordable because the wealthy are capturing all the profits and use their wealth to capture
even more. Trade is not the problem for US workers. Lack of investment in the US workforce is
the problem. We don't invest because the dominant white working class will not support anything
that might benefit blacks and minorities, even if the major benefits go to the white working class
In principle taxing profits is preferable, but has a few downsides/differences:
Profit taxes cannot be "earmarked" with the same *justification* as automation taxes
Profits may actually not increase after the automation - initially because of write-offs,
and then because of pricing in (and perhaps the automation was installed in response to external
market pressures to begin with).
Profits can be shifted/minimized in ways that automation cannot - either you have the robots
or not. Taxing the robots will discourage automation (if that is indeed the goal, or is considered
a worthwhile goal).
Not very strong points, and I didn't read the Gates interview so I don't know his detailed
motivation to propose specifically a robot tax.
When I was in Amsterdam a few years ago, they had come up with another perfidious scheme to cut
people out of the loop or "incentivize" people to use the machines - in a large transit center,
you could buy tickets at a vending machine or a counter with a person - and for the latter you
would have to pay a not-so-modest "personal service" surcharge (50c for a EUR 2-3 or so ticket
- I think it was a flat fee, but may have been staggered by type of service).
Maybe I misunderstood it and it was a "congestion charge" to prevent lines so people who have
to use counter service e.g. with questions don't have to wait.
And then you may have heard (in the US) the term "convenience fee" which I found rather insulting
when I encountered it. It suggests you are charged for your convenience, but it is to cover payment
processor costs (productivity enhancing automation!).
And then you may have heard (in the US) the term "convenience fee" which I found rather insulting
when I encountered it. It suggests you are charged for your convenience, but it is to cover payment
processor costs (productivity enhancing automation!)
Lack of adequate compensation to the lower half of the job force is the problem. Lack of persistent
big macro demand is the problem . A global traiding system that doesn't automatically move forex
rates toward universal. Trading zone balance and away from persistent surplus and deficit traders
is the problem
Technology is never the root problem. Population dynamics is never the root problem
Really nice if your sitting in the lunch room of the University. Especially if you are a member
of the class that has been so richly awarded, rather than the class who paid for it. Humph. The
discussion is garbage, Political opinion by a group that sat by ... The hypothetical nuance of
impossible tax policy.
The concept of Robots leaving us destitute, is interesting. A diversion. It ain't robots who are
harvesting the middle class. It is an entitled class of those who gave so little.
After one five axis CNC cell replaces 5 other machines and 4 of the workers, what happens to
the four workers?
The issue is the efficiency achieved through better through put forcing the loss of wages.
If you use the 5-axis CNC, tax the output from it no more than what would have been paid to the
4 workers plus the Overhead for them. The Labor cost plus the Overhead Cost is what is eliminated
by the 5-Axis CNC.
Ouch. The Wall Street Journal's Real Time Economics blog has a post * linking to Raghuram Rajan's
prophetic 2005 paper ** on the risks posed by securitization - basically, Rajan said that what
did happen, could happen - and to the discussion at the Jackson Hole conference by Federal Reserve
vice-chairman Don Kohn *** and others. **** The economics profession does not come off very well.
Two things are really striking here. First is the obsequiousness toward Alan Greenspan. To
be fair, the 2005 Jackson Hole event was a sort of Greenspan celebration; still, it does come
across as excessive - dangerously close to saying that if the Great Greenspan says something,
it must be so. Second is the extreme condescension toward Rajan - a pretty serious guy - for having
the temerity to suggest that maybe markets don't always work to our advantage. Larry Summers,
I'm sorry to say, comes off particularly badly. Only my colleague Alan Blinder, defending Rajan
"against the unremitting attack he is getting here for not being a sufficiently good Chicago economist,"
emerges with honor.
No, his argument is much broader. Summers stops at "no new taxes and education/retraining". And
I find it highly dubious that compensation/accommodation for workers can be adequately funded
out of robot taxes.
We should never assign a social task to the wrong institution. Firms should be unencumbered by draconian hire and fire constraints. The state should provide the compensation for lay offs and firings.
The state should maintain an adequate local Beveridge ratio of job openings to
Job applicants
Firms task is productivity max subject to externality off sets. Including output price changed. And various other third party impacts
Suddenly then, Bill Gates has become an accomplished student of public policy who can command
an audience from Lawrence Summers who was unable to abide by the likes of the prophetic Brooksley
Born who was chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission or the prophetic professor Raghuram
Rajan who would become Governor of the Reserve Bank of India. Agreeing with Bill Gates however
is a "usual" for Summers.
Until about a decade or so ago many states I worked in had a "tangible property" or "personal
property" tax on business equipment, and sometimes on equipment + average inventory. Someday I
will do some research and see how many states still do this. Anyway a tax on manufacturing equipment,
retail fixtures and computers and etc. is hardly novel or unusual. So why would robots be any
different?
I suspect it is the motivation of Gates as in what he would do with the tax revenue. And Gates
might be thinking of a higher tax rate for robots than for your garden variety equipment.
Yes some equipment in side any one firm compliments existing labor inside that firm including
already installed robots Robots new robots are rivals
Rivals that if subject to a special " introduction tax " Could deter installation
As in
The 50 for 100 swap of the 50 hours embodied in the robot
Replace 100. Similarly paid production line labor
But ...
There's a 100 % plusher chase tax on the robots
Why bother to invest in the productivity increase
If here are no other savings
Bill Gates Wants to Undermine Donald Trump's Plans for Growing the Economy
Yes, as Un-American as that may sound, Bill Gates is proposing * a tax that would undermine
Donald Trump's efforts to speed the rate of economic growth. Gates wants to tax productivity growth
(also known as "automation") slowing down the rate at which the economy becomes more efficient.
This might seem a bizarre policy proposal at a time when productivity growth has been at record
lows, ** *** averaging less than 1.0 percent annually for the last decade. This compares to rates
of close to 3.0 percent annually from 1947 to 1973 and again from 1995 to 2005.
It is not clear if Gates has any understanding of economic data, but since the election of
Donald Trump there has been a major effort to deny the fact that the trade deficit has been responsible
for the loss of manufacturing jobs and to instead blame productivity growth. This is in spite
of the fact that productivity growth has slowed sharply in recent years and that the plunge in
manufacturing jobs followed closely on the explosion of the trade deficit, beginning in 1997.
[Manufacturing Employment, 1970-2017]
Anyhow, as Paul Krugman pointed out in his column **** today, if Trump is to have any hope
of achieving his growth target, he will need a sharp uptick in the rate of productivity growth
from what we have been seeing. Bill Gates is apparently pushing in the opposite direction.
Yes, it's far better that our betters in the upper class get all the benefits from productivity
growth. Without their genetic entitlement to wealth others created, we would just be savages murdering
one another in the streets.
These Masters of the Universe of ours put the 'civil' in our illustrious civilization. (Sure
it's a racist barbarian concentration camp on the verge of collapse into fascist revolutions and
world war. But, again, far better than people murdering one another in the streets!)
People who are displaced from automation are simply moochers and it's only right that they
are cut out of the economy and left to die on the streets. This is the law of Nature: survival
of the fittest. Social Darwinism is inescapable. It's what makes us human!
Instead of just waiting for people displaced from automation to die on the streets, we should
do the humane thing and establish concentration camps so they are quickly dispatched to the Void.
(Being human means being merciful!)
Thank you O glorious technocrats for shining the light of truth on humanity's path into
the future! Where, oh where, would we be without our looting Benevolent Overlords and their pompous
lapdogs (aka Liars in Public Places)?
I think it would be good if the tax was used to help dislocated workers and help with inequality
as Gates suggests. However Summers and Baker have a point that it's odd to single out robots when
you could tax other labor-saving, productivity-enhancing technologies as well.
Baker suggests taxing profits instead. I like his idea about the government taking stock of
companies and collecting taxes that way.
"They likely will need to take a more explicit role in ensuring full employment than has been
the practice in the US.
Among other things, this will mean major reforms of education and retraining systems, consideration
of targeted wage subsidies for groups with particularly severe employment problems, major investments
in infrastructure and, possibly, direct public employment programmes."
Not your usual neoliberal priorities. Compare with Hillary's program.
All taxes are a reallocation of wealth. Not taxing wealth creators is impossible.
On the other hand, any producer who is not taxed will expand at the expense of those producers
who are taxed. This we are seeing with respect to mechanical producers and human labor. Labor
is helping to subsidize its replacement.
Interesting that Summers apparently doesn't see this.
Substitute "impossible" with "bad policy" and you are spot on. Of course the entire Paul Ryan
agenda is to shift taxes from the wealthy high income to the rest of us.
Judging by the whole merit rhetoric and tying employability to "adding value", one could come
to the conclusion that most wealth is created by workers. Otherwise why would companies need to
employ them and wring their hands over skill shortages? Are you suggesting W-2 and payroll taxes
are bad policy?
Payroll taxes to fund Soc. Sec. benefits is a good thing. But when they are used to fund tax cuts
for the rich - not a good thing. And yes - wealth may be created by workers but it often ends
up in the hands of the "investor class".
Let's not conflate value added from value extracted. Profits are often pure economic rents. Very
often non supply regulating. The crude dynamics of market based pricing hardly presents. A sea
of close shaveed firms extracting only. Necessary incentivizing profits of enterprise
Profiteers extract far more value then they create. Of course disentangling system improving surplus
ie profits of enterprise
From the rest of the extracted swag. Exceeds existing tax systems capacity
One can make a solid social welfare case for a class of income stream
that amounts to a running residue out of revenue earned by the firm
above compensation to job holders in that firm
See the model of the recent oboe laureate
But that would amount to a fraction of existing corporate " earnings "
Errr extractions
Taking this in a different direction, does it strike anyone else as important that human beings
retain the knowledge of how to make the things that robots are tasked to produce?
The current generation of robots and automated equipment isn't intelligent and doesn't "know"
anything. People still know how to make the things, otherwise the robots couldn't be programmed.
However in probably many cases, doing the actual production manually is literally not humanly
possible. For example, making semiconductor chips or modern circuit boards requires machines -
they cannot be produced by human workers under any circumstances, as they require precision outside
the range of human capability.
Point taken but I was thinking more along the lines of knowing how to use a lathe or an end mill.
If production is reduced to a series of programming exercises then my sense is that society is
setting itself up for a nasty fall.
(I'm all for technology to the extent that it builds resilience. However, when it serves to
disconnect humans from the underlying process and reduces their role to simply knowledge workers,
symbolic analysts, or the like then it ceases to be net positive. Alternatively stated: Tech-driven
improvements in efficiency are good so long as they don't undermine overall societal resilience.
Be aware of your reliance on things you don't understand but whose function you take for granted.)
Gates almost certainly meant tax robots the way we are taxed. I doubt he meant tax the acquisition
of robots. We are taxed in complex ways, presumably robots will be as well.
Summers is surely using a strawman to make his basically well thought out arguments.
In any case, everyone is talking about distributional impacts of robots, but resource allocation
is surely to be as much or more impacted. What if robots only want to produce antennas and not
tomatoes? That might be a damn shame.
It all seems a tad early to worry about and it's hard to see how what ever the actual outcome
is, the frontier of possible outcomes has to be wildly improved.
Given recent developments in labor productivity Your Last phrase becomes a gem
That is If you end with "it's hard to see whatever the actual outcome is The frontier of possible
outcomes shouldn't be wildly improved By a social revolution "
Robots do not CREATE wealth. They transform wealth from one kind to another that subjectively
has more utility to robot user. Wealth is inherent in the raw materials, the knowledge, skill
and effort of the robot designers and fabricators, etc., etc.
While he is overrated, he is not completely clueless. He might well be mediocre (or slightly
above this level) but extremely arrogant defender of the interests of neoliberal elite. Rubin's
boy Larry as he was called in the old days.
BTW he was Rubin's hatchet man for eliminating Brooksley Born attempt to regulate the derivatives
and forcing her to resign:
== quote ==
"I walk into Brooksley's office one day; the blood has drained from her face," says Michael Greenberger,
a former top official at the CFTC who worked closely with Born. "She's hanging up the telephone;
she says to me: 'That was [former Assistant Treasury Secretary] Larry Summers. He says, "You're
going to cause the worst financial crisis since the end of World War II."... [He says he has]
13 bankers in his office who informed him of this. Stop, right away. No more.'"
Market is, at the end, a fully political construct. And what neoliberals like Summers promote
is politically motivated -- reflects the desires of the ruling neoliberal elite to redistribute
wealth up.
BTW there is a lot of well meaning (or fashion driven) idiotism that is sold in the USA as
automation, robots, move to cloud, etc. Often such fashion driven exercises cost company quite
a lot. But that's OK as long as bonuses are pocketed by top brass, and power of labor diminished.
Underneath of all the "robotic revolution" along with some degree of technological innovation
(mainly due to increased power of computers and tremendous progress in telecommunication technologies
-- not some breakthrough) is one big trend -- liquidation of good jobs and atomization of the
remaining work force.
A lot of motivation here is the old dirty desire of capital owners and upper management to
further to diminish the labor share. Another positive thing for capital owners and upper management
is that robots do not go on strike and do not demand wage increases. But the problem is that they
are not a consumers either. So robotization might bring the next Minsky moment for the USA economy
closer. Sighs of weakness of consumer demand are undeniable even now. Look at auto loan delinquency
rate as the first robin.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/02/27/subprime-auto-loan-delinquencies-hit-six-year-high/81027230/
== quote ==
The total of outstanding auto loans reached $1.04 trillion in the fourth-quarter of 2015, according
to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. About $200 billion of that would be classified as
subprime or deep subprime.
== end of quote ==
Summers as a staunch, dyed-in-the-wool neoliberal of course is against increasing labor share.
Actually here he went full into "supply sider" space -- making richer more rich will make us better
off too. Pgl already noted that by saying: "Has Summers gone all supply-side on his? Start with
his title"
BTW, there is a lot of crazy thing that are going on with the US large companies drive to diminish
labor share. Some o them became barely manageable and higher management has no clue what is happening
on the lower layers of the company.
The old joke was: GM does a lot of good things except making good cars. Now it can be expanded
to a lot more large US companies.
The "robot pressure" on labor is not new. It is actually the same old and somewhat dirty trick
as outsourcing. In this case outsourcing to robots. In other words "war of labor" by other means.
Two caste that neoliberalism created like in feudalism occupy different social spaces and one
is waging the war on other, under the smoke screen of "free market" ideology. As buffet remarked
"There's class warfare, all right, but it's my class, the rich class, that's making war, and we're
winning."
BTW successes in robotics are no so overhyped that it is not easy to distinguish where reality
ends and the hype starts.
In reality telecommunication revolution is probably more important in liquation of good jobs
in the USA. I think Jonny Bakho or somebody else commented on this, but I can't find the post.
"... Keynesianism offered important tools for overcoming the economic crisis, but its application by Obama's government was too half-hearted and misdirected (going to banks rather than households) to effectively reduce the recession. Clinton paid the price. ..."
"... We need to work towards a post-capitalist system that aims at promoting equality, enhances instead of destroys the environment, is based on cooperation, and is engaged in planning to achieve short term, medium term, and long-term goals. ..."
"... "The Labour and time of the poor is in civilised countries sacrificed to the maintaining of the rich in ease and luxury. The Landlord is maintained in idleness and luxury by the labour of his tenants. The moneyed man is supported by his extractions from the industrious merchant and the needy who are obliged to support him in ease by a return for the use of his money." ..."
"... "But the rate of profit does not, like rent and wages, rise with the prosperity and fall with the declension of the society. On the contrary, it is naturally low in rich and high in poor countries, and it is always highest in the countries which are going fastest to ruin." ..."
Keynesianism offered important tools for overcoming the economic crisis,
but its application by Obama's government was too half-hearted and misdirected
(going to banks rather than households) to effectively reduce the recession.
Clinton paid the price.
This interview with Walden Bello is based on the article "Keynesianism in
the Great Recession:
Right Diagnosis, Wrong Cure," available here from the Trans National Institute.
Q: What were the main ways in which neoliberalism created the Great
Recession?
A: Neoliberalism sought to remove the regulatory constraints that the state
was forced to impose on capitalist profitability owing to the pressure of the
working class movement.
But it had to legitimize this ideologically. Thus it came out with two very
influential theories, the so-called efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and
rational expectations hypothesis (REH). EMH held that without
government-induced distortions, financial markets are efficient because they
reflect all the available information available to all market participants at
any given time. In essence, EMH said, it is best to leave financial markets
alone since they are self-regulating. REH provided the theoretical basis for
EMH with its assumption that individuals operate on the basis of rational
assessments of economic trends.
These theories provided the ideological cover for the deregulation or "light
touch" regulation of the financial sector that took place in the 1980s and
1990s. Due to a common neoliberal education and close interaction, bankers and
regulators shared the assumptions of this ideology. This resulted in the
loosening of regulation of the banks and the absence of any regulation and very
limited monitoring of the so-called "shadow banking" sector where all sorts of
financial instruments were created and traded among parties.
With so little regulation, there was nothing to check the creation and
trading of questionable securities like subprime mortgage-based securities. And
with no effective monitoring, there were no constraints on banks' build-up of
unsustainable balance sheets with a high debt to equity ratios.
Without adult supervision, as it were, a financial sector that was already
inherently unstable went wild. When the subprime assets were found to be toxic
since they were based on mortgages on which borrowers had defaulted, highly
indebted or leveraged banks that had bought these now valueless securities had
little equity to repay their creditors or depositors who now came after them.
This quickly led to their bankruptcy, as in the case of Lehman Brothers, or to
their being bailed out by government, as was the case with most of the biggest
banks. The finance sector froze up, resulting in a recession-a big one-in the
real economy.
Q: So how did these banks get to be so big and powerful? What drove the
"financialization boom" that triggered the recession?
A: Financialization or an increasing preference for speculative activity
instead of production as a source of profit was driven by four developments.
The first was the abolition, during the Clinton Administration, of the
Glass-Steagall Act that had served as a Chinese Wall between commercial or
retail banking and investment banking, as a result of tremendous pressure from
the big banks felt left out of the boom in trading. The second was the
expansive monetary policy promoted by the Federal Reserve to counter the
downturn following the piercing of the dot.com bubble in the first years of the
new century. Third was the government and business' move to shore up effective
demand by substituting household indebtedness for real wage increases. Fourth
was the lifting of capital controls on the international flow of finance
capital, following the era of financial repression during the post-war period.
These developments acted in synergy, first to produce a speculative boom in the
housing and stock markets, then feeding on one another to accelerate an
economic nose-dive during the bust.
Q: What was the worst impact of the crisis, and upon whom?
A: With unemployment hitting 10 per cent in 2010, working people suffered
the most. Although the unemployment rate is now down to five per cent, that
fall has been driven less by improved labor market conditions than a falling
rate of participation, as discouraged workers withdrew from the labor force.
More than 4 million homes were foreclosed. Lower income households, the main
victims of aggressive loan sharks, suffered most.
As far as growth was concerned, the recovery was tepid, with average GDP
growth barely 2 per cent per annum between 2011 and 2013, less than half the
pace of the typical post-World War II expansion. In terms of inequality, the
statistics were clear: 95% of income gains from 2009 to 2012 went to the top
1%; median income was $4,000 lower in 2014 than in 2000; concentration of
financial assets increased after 2009, with the four largest banks owning
assets that came to nearly 50% of GDP.
An Economic Policy Institute study summed up the trends: "[T]he gains of the
top 1 percent have vastly outpaced the gains for the bottom 99 percent as the
economy has recovered."
At the individual and household level, the economic consequences of being laid
off were devastating; with one study finding that workers laid off during
recessions "lose on average three full years of lifetime income potential." One
estimate showed that the income of the United States would have been $2
trillion higher had there been no crisis, or $17,000 per household.
Q: What did Keynesianism offer as a way of responding to the crisis?
A: Keynesianism offered two major weapons for overcoming the crisis. The
first and most important was a fiscal stimulus, or deficit spending by
government. The second was monetary expansion. Essentially, these were forms of
government intervention designed to revive the economy after a collapse of
investment on the part of the private sector. They are called "countercyclical"
since they are designed to counter the recessionary pressures brought about by
the crisis of the private sector.
Q: How were Keynesian policies and strategies applied in the wake of the
onset of the recession?
A: The Keynesian interventions were in the right direction. Unfortunately,
they were applied half-heartedly by the Obama administration. For instance, the
size of the fiscal stimulus $787 billion might have been enough to prevent the
recession from getting worse, but it was not enough to trigger an early
recovery, which would have demanded at least $1.8 trillion, according to
Cristina Romer, the head of Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.
Expansive monetary policy was always a second best solution and was not as
effective as a fiscal stimulus. Yes, cutting interests to zero and quantitative
easing-or providing banks with infusions of money-did have some impact, but
this was rather small since, for the most part, individuals and corporations
did not want to go further into debt but wanted to focus on lessening their
debt.
Q: What three things could have been done, "truer" to the spirit of
Keynesianism, that would have reduced the recession?
A: First of all, there should have been a much bigger stimulus, one along
the lines of Cristina Romer's proposal of $1.8 trillion. Second, instead of
focusing on saving the banks, the government should have devoted resources to
assisting the millions of troubled homeowners, a move which would have raised
effective demand. Third, the insolvent banks should have been taken over or
nationalized and the billions spent on recapitalizing them or guaranteeing
their borrowing should have been devoted to creating jobs to absorb the
unemployed.
Q: Is financialization still a threat?
A: Yes, even conservative analysts say that the so-called Dodd-Frank reform
encourages moral hazard or reckless behavior by banks owing to their belief
that when they get into trouble, the government will bail them out.
Derivatives-which Warren Buffet called "weapons of mass destruction"-are
still virtually unregulated. And so is the shadow banking sector. The
non-transparent derivatives market is now estimated to total US$707 trillion,
or significantly higher than the US$548 billion in 2008.
As one analyst puts it, "The market has grown so unfathomably vast, the
global economy is at risk of massive damage should even a small percentage of
contracts go sour. Its size and potential influence are difficult just to
comprehend, let alone assess." Former U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
Chairman Arthur Levitt, the former chairman of the SEC, says that none of the
post-2008 reforms has "significantly diminished the likelihood of financial
crises."
Q: What has been the legacy of the crisis on U.S. politics?
A: One can say that the Obama administration's failure to reinvigorate the
economy after eight years and to reform the banks was the central factor that
lost the elections for Hillary Clinton. If there's one certainty that emerged
in the 2016 elections, it was that Clinton's unexpected defeat stemmed from her
loss of four so-called "Rust Belt" states: Wisconsin, Michigan, and
Pennsylvania, which had previously been Democratic strongholds, and Ohio, a
swing state that had twice supported Barack Obama.
The 64 Electoral College votes of those states, most of which hadn't even
been considered battlegrounds, put Donald Trump over the top. Trump's numbers,
it is now clear, were produced by a combination of an enthusiastic turnout of
the Republican base, his picking up significant numbers of traditionally
Democratic voters, and large numbers of Democrats staying home.
But this wasn't a defeat by default. On the economic issues that motivate many
of these voters, Trump had a message: The economic recovery was a mirage,
people were hurt by the Democrats' policies, and they had more pain to look
forward to should the Democrats retain control of the White House.
The problem for Clinton was that the opportunistic message of this demagogue
rang true to the middle class and working class voters in these states, even if
the messenger himself was quite flawed. These four states reflected, on the
ground, the worst consequences of the interlocking problems of high
unemployment and deindustrialization that had stalked the whole country for
over two decades owing to the flight of industrial corporations to Asia and
elsewhere. Combined with the financial collapse of 2007-2008 and the widespread
foreclosure of the homes of millions of middle class and poor people who'd been
enticed by the banks to go into massive indebtedness, the region was becoming a
powder keg of resentment.
True, these working class voters going over to Trump or boycotting the polls
were mainly white. But then these were the same people that placed their faith
in Obama in 2008, when they favored him by large margin over John McCain. And
they stuck with him in 2012, though his margins of victory were for the most
part narrower. By 2016, however, they'd had enough, and they would no longer
buy the Democrats' blaming George W. Bush for the continuing stagnation of the
economy.
Clinton bore the brunt of their backlash, since she made the strategic mistake
of running on Obama's legacy-which, to the voters, was one of failing to
deliver the economic relief and return to prosperity that he had promised eight
years earlier.
Q: In what ways do we need to go beyond Keynesianism to address current
economic and ecological problems?
A: I think Keynesianism has valuable insights into how a capitalist economy
operates and can be steadied so its inherent instability and contradictions can
be mitigated. But, as Minsky says, these solutions do not address the inherent
instability of the system. A new equilibrium contains the seeds of
disequilibrium. With its focus on growth propelled by effective demand,
Keynesianism also has problems addressing the problem of ecological
disequilibrium brought about by growth.
The real issue is capitalism's incessant search for profit that severely
destabilizes both society and the environment. I think there is no longer any
illusion, even among its defenders, that capitalism is prone to crises, and
these days, these are crises that not only stem from the dynamics of production
but from the dynamics of finance.
We need to work towards a post-capitalist system that aims at promoting
equality, enhances instead of destroys the environment, is based on
cooperation, and is engaged in planning to achieve short term, medium term, and
long-term goals. In this scheme, finance would function to link savings to
investment and savers to investors, instead of becoming an autonomous force
whose dynamics destabilizes the real economy. A post-capitalist society does
not mean the elimination of the market. But it does mean making use of the
market to achieve democratically decided social goals rather than having the
market drive society in an anarchic fashion.
But Yobs! EMH is more than just a hypothesis. It's really, really true
stuff. Say Paris Hilton or even some squillionaire heir dude decides to spend a
little pocket change on a brand new pair of self driving, artificial
intelligence, rocket powered yoga pants.
An enterprising Silicon Valley startup will emerge and, with the help of IPO
financing, supply the product 'cause there is demand. It's that simple!
But can they patent their invention, monopolize the market, and defend
their obscene profits with an army of New York and D.C. lawyers circling
around the money machine? If so, count me in!
We need to work towards a post-capitalist system that aims at promoting
equality, enhances instead of destroys the environment, is based on
cooperation, and is engaged in planning to achieve short term, medium term, and
long-term goals.
Not going to happen because there is no long-term goal. That pile of
derivative crap will keep growing forestalling the day the nothing cancer it's
based on metastasis and brings it down, quantitative easing is a placebo.
That's the medium term. In the short term there's Silicon Valley's
monopolization model, run by selfish man-boy innovators stroking the egos of
old greedy politicians who look down on indebted, seduced spend happy
deplorables. The latest video of insecure man-boy Travis Kalanick arguing with
and dismissing the views of one of his drivers "Some people don't like to take
responsibility for their own shit." shows the attitude of the ruling classes
toward the 90% deplorable suckers they're working to con with new
"Innovations".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTEDYCkNqns
The long-term our elites have given up on, smart people they are and as
Chris Hedges has said "know what's coming" as today's news brings warnings of
permafrost gas release. What are our elites solutions? Do as Peter Thiel and
buy citizenship to an island nation, or like those smart people who purchased a
condo in some mid-western abandoned missile silo? Why they have a doctor and
dentist on the condo board has me confused, what no butcher, baker,
candle-stick maker? And then what? After Bannon's apocalyptic melt down come
back home and take an Uber ride to your AirBnB where the doctor's serve up a
delicious gourmet feast?
The Best and Brightest, the ruling class. Time is running out, as the planet
burns.
When you have a finance dominated economy, the uber ceo is the standard
for what the "best and brightest" will become. That youtube video captures
the immaturity, selfishness, and arrogance of this child masquerading as a
man.
If you want things biased in your favour, bias the economics that
everything runs on.
The Classical Economists looked out on a world of small state, basic
capitalism in the 18th and 19th Centuries and observed it. It is nothing like
our expectations today because they are just made up.
Adam Smith in the 18th century:
"The Labour and time of the poor is in civilised countries sacrificed to
the maintaining of the rich in ease and luxury. The Landlord is maintained in
idleness and luxury by the labour of his tenants. The moneyed man is supported
by his extractions from the industrious merchant and the needy who are obliged
to support him in ease by a return for the use of his money."
We still have a UK aristocracy that is maintained in luxury and leisure and
can see associates of the Royal Family that are maintained in luxury and
leisure by trust funds. As these people are doing nothing productive, nothing
can be trickling down, the system is trickling up to maintain them.
Adam Smith in the 18th century:
"But the rate of profit does not, like rent and wages, rise with the
prosperity and fall with the declension of the society. On the contrary, it is
naturally low in rich and high in poor countries, and it is always highest in
the countries which are going fastest to ruin."
Exactly the opposite of today's thinking, what does he mean?
When rates of profit are high, capitalism is cannibalising itself by:
1) Not engaging in long term investment for the future
2) Paying insufficient wages to maintain demand for its products and services
Today's problems with growth and demand.
Amazon re-invested its profits and didn't suck them out as dividends and
look how big it's grown. Ignoring today's economics can work wonders.
The Classical Economists direct observations come to some very unpleasant
conclusions for the ruling class; they are parasites on the economic system
using their land and capital to collect rent and interest to maintain
themselves in luxury and ease (Adam Smith above).
What can these vested interests do to maintain their life of privilege that
stretches back centuries?
Promote a bottom-up economics that has carefully crafted assumptions that hide
their parasitic nature. It's called neoclassical economics and it's what we use
today.
The distinction between "earned" and "unearned" income disappears and the
once separate areas of "capital" and "land" are conflated. The landowners,
landlords and usurers are now just productive members of society and not
parasites riding on the back of other people's hard work.
Unearned income is so easy, it's the UK favourite today.
Most of the UK now dreams of giving up work and living off the "unearned"
income from a BTL portfolio, extracting the "earned" income of generation rent.
The UK dream is to be like the idle rich, rentier, living off "unearned"
income and doing nothing productive.
Powerful vested interests come up with neoclassical economics so that it works
in their favour and only bottom-up economics can be easily corrupted. Top-down
economics is based on real world observation.
Their neoclassical economics blows up in 1929 due to its own internal flaws
but the powerful vested interests still love it as they designed it to work in
their favour.
Keynes comes up with new ideas that herald the New Deal and a way out of the
Great Depression.
The powerful vested interests don't want to lose their beloved neoclassical
economics and fuse it with Keynes ideas to roll out after the war. This gives
them the opportunity to get rid of some of Keynes's more unpleasant
conclusions, generally tone it down and remove all the really obvious conflicts
with their neoclassical economics. The only real Keynesian economics was in the
New Deal.
When the Keynesian synthesis fails in the 1970s, they seize the opportunity
to bring back their really biased neoclassical economics.
It still doesn't work of course.
It's reliance on debt based consumption and debt based speculation, tend to
end in debt deflation, e.g. the Great Depression, today's secular stagnation.
Today's secular stagnation is only being achieved by the Central Banker's
pumping in their trillions to stave off debt deflation and there are plenty of
asset bubbles still to burst.
Supply side economics – when inflation is too high and demand
exceeds supply
Demand side economics – when inflation is too low and supply exceeds demand
Today's economics was a solution to what went before it, as Keynesian
capitalism had ended in the stagflation of the 1970s, but it was far too
extreme.
Looking back with two assumptions:
1) Money at the top is mainly investment capital as those at the top can
already meet every need, want or whim. It is supply side capital.
2) Money at bottom is mainly consumption capital and it will be spent on goods
and services. It is demand side capital.
Pre-1930s – Supply side economics leading to:
Too much investment capital leading to rampant speculation and a Wall Street
crash
Too little consumption capital and demand is maintained with debt.
Leads to Great Depression and the debt deflation of an economy mired in debt
Post-1930s – Demand side economics leading to:
Too little investment capital compared to demand, supply constrained.
Too much consumption capital, leading to very high inflation.
Imbalance causes stagflation.
Post-1980s – Supply side economics leads to:
Too much investment capital leading to rampant speculation and a Wall Street
crash, asset bubbles all over the place.
Too little consumption capital and demand is maintained with debt. Global
aggregate demand is suffering and with such subdued demand there are few places
for real investment leading to more speculation.
Leads to the secular stagnation of the new normal, the assert bubbles have
yet to burst.
Maybe it's just the balance between supply and demand necessary to
achieve that happy medium.
Pre-1930s – Supply side economics – Runs into the debt deflation
of the Great Depression.
Post-1930s – Demand side economics – Runs into stagflation.
Post-1980s – Supply side economics – Runs into the new normal of
secular stagnation as the Central Bankers manage to stave off the
under-lying debt deflation.
Separate money and credit. We have a ridiculous system that requires
credit creation in order to create money, eventually too much credit is
created, but instead of that just being a banking crisis it's also a
monetary and economic crisis. Free your mind a little. Just separate the
two.
German Capitalism was State-sponsored. Siemens & Halske were based in Berlin
and lived off State contracts for railways, telegraphs. French Capitalism was
State-sponsored. English Capitalism was sponsored by Discrimination against
Congregationalists, Quakers, Unitarians, Baptists who were outside the Church
of England and could not therefore go to University or enter Professions under
Test & Corporation Acts 1665. They had to enter Trade. Hence Cadbury, Rowntree,
James Barclay, Samuel Lloyd were Quakers – the latter two forming banks.
Siemens created Deutsche Bank. As for Finance in Germany, Bleichroeder was
Bismarck's banker – the Bauer Family of Frankfurt became Rothschild. The
Finance in London was largely German immigrants – Kleinwort Benson, Sassoons,
Cassel etc.
Britain ultimately lacked investment opportunities because of Free Trade
letting competitors export goods into the UK market but tariffs preventing UK
exports to USA, Germany, Russia, France etc. Hence Capital was exported
building huge foreign investment portfolio through The City – liquidated in 1st
World War
'When the subprime assets were found to be toxic since they were based on
mortgages on which borrowers had defaulted, highly indebted or leveraged banks
that had bought these now valueless securities had little equity to repay their
creditors or depositors who now came after them.'
Interesting interpretation. Unfortunately it bears little relationship to
what actually happened. The financial crisis was a repo crisis. Most
collateralized mortgage obligations had plenty of equity to cover default
losses. Unfortunately, they were by nature opaque and hard to analyze quickly,
and like a murmuration of birds, everyone zigged at the same time, so there
were no buyers. The repo aspect of the crisis was what really counted. Suddenly
repo lenders refused to lend. Investment banks once had longer term financing
in place, but this eroded over the several years prior to the crisis. See Cohan
'House of Cards.' Also Ed Conard's 'Unintended Consequences.'
Anonymous, you are forgetting the role of the massive sub-prime mortgage
fraud that the banks initiated and then the banks foreclosed on those who
had bought the offered mortgages rather than re-negotiate new mortgages.
Forget repo; remember the fraud: forget opaque and hope for transparency
which was in short supply during the crisis. It's all about
the fraud
, you know.
Hmmmm ..let's see if I understand you correctly. It appears that when
everyone thought they were buying lunch, they were buying sh*t sandwiches.
So the problem wasn't that they were being sold sh*t under another name, the
problem was that they weren't willing to buy that sh*t? So if they'd have
been willing to eat sh*t instead of what they thought they were going to
get, everything would have been hunky dory? Ah ..lunch, sh*t, but it's all
the same, huh? Anything for a buck?
This is not correct. I wrote about this in sordid detail in ECONNED, with
the details of the structures, the amounts, and who was exposed.
Subprime CDOs (more accurately, asset backed CDOs, which at the time
happened to consist heavily of BBB- RMBS exposures) were a significant
portion of repo collateral. They went almost without exception to zero.
Those exposures wound up disproportionately at heavily leveraged,
systemically important, and tightly coupled financial institutions. The
Eurobanks loaded up on ABS CDOs because their trader bonus formulas highly
incentivized it (see discussion of "negative basis trade"). AIG and the
monolines were as we know heavily exposed. US investment banks were heavily
exposed by virtue of either being stupidly heavily involved in subprime CDOs
at the worst moment (Citi and Merrill, I explain why/how), Lehman and Bear
by simply being weakly capitalized second tier investment banks that tried
getting to be first tier by going way overweight in total risk terms in RMBS
and doing a bad job of risk management (Bear by extending too much in its
warehouse lines to originators like IndyMac and New Century as well as being
a large CDS player; Lehman by taking on too much risk everywhere, witness
its obvious balance sheet problems in 2008). Morgan Stanley also had a weak
balance sheet and big CDO/RMBS exposures, see AIG trial for details; Goldman
was heavily exposed to ABS CDOs by having too cleverly trying to pick up
extra margin by brokering them to Middle Eastern investors, leaving them
exposed when their AIG hedge was gonna fail.
Yes. repo was the proximate cause, but contrary to your claim, a lot of
the collateral was no good and that was why the repos were not rolled.
People who advocate reindustrialization and manufacturing are out of their
minds. Manufacturing margins are shrinking everywhere. China and Germany are
going to be in deep trouble. Bruce Greenwald, of Columbia Business School, says
that in fifty years most of the things that you buy will be made within fifty
miles of your home. Actually, they may be made in your garage, by you, and you
may not 'buy' them, per se, so much as buy the raw materials and make them.
What's that likely to do for manufacturing jobs?
That 50 mile radius is not only true; it's obvious. Fifty years from
now, all of our roadways and bridges will have crumbled, and so the
transport of finished goods beyond 50 miles of their manufacture will be
nigh on impossible.
Of course the transport of raw materials from their origins to their
points of refinement will also be similarly limited, which means that
most of what most of us use will be made out of sticks.
I'm sitting in my kitchen looking at all the things that are
manufactured, from my fridge, to my clothes, to my car, to my floors, to the
farm equipment I can see outside my window, etc. And heaven knows none of
these things last as long as they used to, so yes, I am going to have to
replace all this some day as is the farmer ..
So yes, there will be manufacturing jobs in the future, and not just within
a 50 mile radius. Perhaps when the actual economy gets better for people in
the lower 90%, they will be more willing to spend money on manufactured
products. But in order for their economy to get better, they are going to
have to be the ones doing the manufacturing, aren't they?
Derivatives are the biggest threat to the financial system.
James Rickards in Currency Wars gives some figures for the loss
magnification of complex financial instruments/derivatives in 2008.
Losses from sub-prime – less than $300 billion
With derivative amplification – over $6 trillion
It was the derivatives that really did the damage; derivatives were the
mechanism that allowed a housing bust in one nation to infect the global
economy.
Derivatives were used as leverage to increase bonuses on the way up and
losses on the way down.
The derivatives market is now bigger than ever, no sensible regulations have
been put in place since 2008.
Where does the real danger come from with derivatives?
Jim Rickards was at the top of LTCM when it collapsed in 1998 and saw how the
collapse in a link of the derivative chains turns losses, from nett to gross
within the system.
Everyone panicked as it was impossible to gauge the size of the losses.
When Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008, everyone panicked as it was
impossible to gauge the size of the losses.
The same problem ten years later and the same problem will happen next time
as no regulations are in place. Everyone still believes the risk with
derivatives only comes from their nett value as they have learnt nothing from
experience.
Credit Default Swaps are an unregulated insurance product that bought down
AIG in 2008, the largest insurance company in the world. They took the
insurance premiums and didn't put anything aside in case these insurance
policies had to pay out as they weren't regulated.
CDSs are the most dangerous of the derivative products, they bought down AIG
and it all happened in a division in Curzon Street, Mayfair in the UK.
They are zero sum bets, so why do bankers love them?
Both sides think they are taking the right side of the bet and both sides can
post profits until that future bet is realised. They are great for bonuses.
They don't incur any costs up front and allow for enormous leverage, they
are great for bonuses.
Derivatives are the transmission mechanism for crises in one part of the
world to infect the whole global economy.
They interconnect the major banks in a way that has devastating consequences
should one of them fail, this has already been demonstrated by LTCM in 1998 and
Lehman Brothers in 2008.
The nett losses turn to gross losses within the derivatives chains and the
losses are incalculable as these chains are opaque and hard to trace.
We know the biggest threat to the financial system; will anyone do
anything about it?
First of all, there should have been a much bigger stimulus, one along
the lines of Cristina Romer's proposal of $1.8 trillion.
I was just reading accounts of the events leading up to the stimulus
package, and it seems Ms. Tomer was told time and time again that her stimulus
proposals were politically impossible. Is there actual evidence that Obama ever
saw that 1.8 trillion figure? According to Scheiber's book, Summers kept
brushing off Romer's numbers.
If so, the important economic advisors never wanted to fight for what was
necessary at a time when a majority of the US public would have gone along with
anything. They really are just a bunch of careerists.
I have a hard time taking anything said by Christina Romer seriously.
After all, she was one of the authors of the infamous ARRA justification
report that predicted a 10% peak unemployment rate without the stimulus and
a 8% peak unemployment rate with it. That prediction assumed $800 billion in
spending and tax cuts, and
we got
that $800 billion. The
unemployment rate shot past 10% anyway. [Additionally, the return to a 6%
unemployment rate took twice as long as predicted and only reached that
level because of a plummeting labor force participation rate.] The failure
of the predictions in the ARRA justification report were truly
epic
.
Competence matters. The economists working for the White House (Romer
among them) didn't have it.
This is part of why Trump won. The ARRA justification report promised a
glorious V-shaped recovery with 300k to 500k jobs per month. We didn't even
average 200k per month. The ACA promised cheaper health insurance by $2000
per year. Premium rose sharply instead. When you implement grand new plans,
those plans need to ACTUALLY WORK!!
It sounds like Ms. Romer wrote a report which matched the exact amount
that her bosses were going to get from Congress. So she was giving cover
for something that was already decided.
And the ACA is a pile of crap that anyone being involved with should
be ashamed of. Unfortunately since the Federal government is completely
captured by the renter's there is zero chance of reform without a
complete political revolution.
Summers agreed that Romer's analysis was correct, and Summers is the
last person to say that sort of thing. It's in Ron Suskind's book
Confidence Men. He nixed it for political reasons, not economic ones.
Is it not hard to imagine that Romer was pressured to create a model
to sell the deal? Why would her second model be so different from her
earlier one otherwise? That happens all the time in the private sector.
If you haven't seen it, you haven't been looking.
People keep forgetting that a large portion of that $781 billion was in the
form of tax credits weighted towards the usual suspects.
And since the MOTU never let an emergency go to waste, the scrum at the
trough resulted in the actual stimulus being even more anemic than it is
portrayed.
Here in Illinois, which received the second or third highest amount of
stimulus dollars, most of the money was spent on bridge and road repairs.
Yes, those repairs provided some construction jobs, but, otherwise hardly
served to promote the economy for ordinary people. The only really large
project to receive stimulus money here was the destruction of a massive,
abandoned Outboard Marine plant sitting right on the shores of Lake
Michigan. The building was dangerous–and an eyesore–and occupied prime real
estate. Unfortunately, what remains on the site is a low level of rubble.
Apparently, there isn't enough money, or interest, in developing the land to
provide jobs, recreational space, new living accommodations–anything that
might improve people's lives. In other words, the stimulus was used to
repair the old and crumbling, but not to generate new opportunities.
Here's a conundrum which baffles me: Bello writes (as have many before):
"These developments acted in synergy, first to produce a speculative boom in
the housing and stock markets, then feeding on one another to accelerate an
economic nose-dive during the bust."
So we did have our bust in the real estate market, here in California. My
own property, purchased in 2005, dropped about 30% in value in 2008 from its
market high in 2007.
It's nine years later - and my property value is now back up to its 2007
value. So is Los Angeles (and other cities no doubt) back in a "boom" that is
inevitably headed again for a "bust"? It seems to me the economy is worse now
than it was in 2007, and if these prices were an unsupportable boom then, why
wouldn't they be now? And yet we are (so I'm told) in a period of rising
interest rates and tight credit, two things absent the last "boom." I'm
befuddled.
I think Picketty Capitalism has been going on so long that the GFC was
caused by the labor classes being deprived too long, then the banksters
realized it and tried to resuscitate them but it was too late and because
the stimulus was too small even the cure got caught in the implosion
All of the desirable neighborhoods in LA are now well above their 2007
valuations. It seems like pure madness. The way-out exurbs of the Antelope
Valley and the Inland Empire are still lower but almost everything in LA
city limits is considerably higher now than in 2007. Median income for
normal Americans is still lower than in the year 2000, but yet no one seems
to think the market is in another bubble? I share your befuddlement. I
live/rent in LA and I am sitting on a good chunk of cash I would like to put
towards purchasing a home, but I can't bring myself to pay $600k for a 2
bedroom, 1 bath, 1200 square foot, 1950's shit box that some jerk is trying
to flip for a $200,000 profit. I'm still hoping for another housing crash.
The fundamentals of this market are rotten and prices need to come down
before I consider tethering myself to a large, long period mortgage.
Housing is not just about fulfilling our basic human need for security
and warmth, but also our innate powerful tendencies toward aspiration and
speculation.
Sure it is our house, our home, our security etc but for most of us mere
mortals it is our biggest financial outlay and has increasingly come to be
seen in investment terms.
Thus over time property has gradually displaced gold as the major store
of wealth, and this fixation has clearly been exploited accordingly.
Crucially it is also one of the biggest and most effective means for the
debt creation, through mortgages and their numerous spin offs, that
underwrites and drives most modern economies.
So apart from its obvious practical uses, property fulfils many other
functions within economies, many of which used to be filled by gold ie asset
backed promises to pay, but without its numerous obvious limitations. We
can't keep finding or creating more gold to keep up with debt/credit
expansion, but we can keep building more houses, or creating or exploiting
more desirable environments for them for example.
Equally as important, and unlike gold, government can regulate supply.
This ensures that demand ideally outstrips supply to pump the sometimes
apparently illogical price inflation that keeps people chasing the horizon
and thus keep feeding debt/money into the system.
Seems like there should be the discussion that there are two competing
theories running simultaneously here in the US and much of the EU. My
understanding of JMK's theory is that after the expansion of debt and other
financial stimulus to get us out of a recession, that after the recovery Keynes
called for paying off debt through generating surplus that we retire debt in
the form of higher taxes until we reach equilibrium. But that never happened.
You overlay the Neoliberial macro ideology and voila we get tax cuts to the
wealthy instituted by Reagan and Bush43 and austerity for everybody else,
exactly the wrong medicine. Compound the growth of debt by trillions of dollars
spent on never ending wars. The partial embrace of supply-side policy for 35
years accelerated growing government debt, thus causing subsequent economic
crisis.
It is as if our economic policy leaders are bipolar or schizophrenic.
Between this mishmash of conflicting policy and accelerating the uncoupling of
labor from capital and wealth creation, inequality has become endemic and
without change will become much, much worse. Just wait till the BLS U-6
participation number drops to 40% as millions of jobs cease to exist in the
next 20 years while 80% of the wealth will be held by a handful of people. In
this "free market" casino capitalist system with its insider trading, zero sum
wars, and disregard for collateral damage, survival will only happen for a few.
It will be ugly for those trapped in the Kansas silo. Little did George Miller
realize in the late 70's that his Mad Max movie would be a documentary.
Let's see – A gambling addict makes reckless bets using credit and loses
big. His Uncle Sam bails him out and admonishes him to never do it again but
does nothing else to deter future bad behavior.
The casino is still open for business, offering unlimited chips on credit.
Is Walden Bello an Argentinian by any chance? He sounds like my ancient
boyfriend Ezekiel who was the smartest, funniest guy I ever. And he always made
fun of me, my idiocy, and the USA for thinking we were the only answer for
humanity. I loved him, but I was a dummy and I loved him too late. As for this
delightful article, it's better than butter dumplings, I loved it too. I won't
elaborate all the points. It was great. I'm pondering how wise it seems to
demand a post capitalist society which uses the market to achieve democracy and
environmental justice – but I definitely do think it's time has come and we are
ready to go forward with this idea. Thank you for posting this. (versus both
financial and industrial capitalism which both fail to address the shitstorm we
are facing).
Another excellent, very succinct and up to the point expose of Keynesianism,
a condemned by corporate economists, out of fashion economic theory with plenty
of experimental foundations. Mostly the so-called " direct government
investments into the mainstream economy as a methods of increasing an aggregate
economic demand was hypocritically criticized as detrimental to free markets
and free trade, while the same investment in Wall Street financial instruments
was welcomed.
Here is another interesting unique, take what is or may be so-called demand
side economics in the context of Keynesianism which only deals with a fraction
of the issues of the economy in a deflationary spiral.
IS THE END GAME FOR THE SSE RADICALISM NEAR? MAY BE.
"The Supply Side Economics (SSE) did us all. Yes. Under this benign name the
SSE represent an extreme radical and dangerous ideology based on the unfounded
(or rather borrowed) believe that "If we build, they will come" supply side
fantasy that implicitly assumes that the real demand (nominal demand minus
weighted debt incurred while producing the demand) does not need not be of any
concern to the economic, financial and political decision makers, spelling the
decades of doom to the people who work for living and created a paradise for
the parasitic rent seekers, financial oligarchs and their government cronies.
The SSE (Supply Side Economic) was presented in the early seventies as an
alternative to the Keynesian Theory that supposedly was concerned about the
Demand Side Economics (DSE) but in fact it was not [only tangentially]. It
cared mostly about the so-called aggregate demand stimulation initiated
generally through the government investment policies leaving the task of "real
demand" creation on the shoulders of the working people through the organized
labor actions and leftist political movements lobbying the government and
imparting on the government fiscal policies in a way beneficial to the labor
and restricting the power of economic elites.
For the true demand side economic we would need a set of fiscal and economic
and trade policies that would build up the institutional support for completely
different, non financial, assets classes such as: the labor asset class (LAC)
and the natural environment assets class (NRAC) [and more]. The economic,
fiscal and monetary policies of the government in the DSE are [suppose to be]
dedicated to maintain the fair value and stable growth of the above asset
classes while leaving the other financial assets classes exposed to the global
free markets. The true DSE guaranties demand and adjust the supply to fit the
real demand hence no deflationary death spiral is ever possible, and if
value-based [not debt based] monetary system is imposed, no inflationary
pressures may ever develop."
"The non-transparent derivatives market is now estimated to total US$707
trillion, or significantly higher than the US$548 billion in 2008."
Wow! Is this figure real? Not that 548 billion is small sum but I thought
the derivative market in pre-crash '08 was in the neighborhood of 8 trillion?
It's now 707 trillion? That's nearly a hundred-fold increase in 9 years.
Anyone knowledgeable enough on the world derivative market to comment?
$548 trillion – the billion is likely a transcription mistake.
Note the fatuous accuracy, down to the trillion where in the next
paragraph is this.
>As one analyst puts it, "The market has grown so unfathomably vast, the
global economy is at risk of massive damage should even a small percentage
of contracts go sour. Its size and potential influence are
difficult
just to comprehend, let alone assess
."
Basically, no one knows. It could be over a quadrillion (1000 X 1
trillion) or a 1 followed by 15 zeros.
To give these figures a faint wisp of reality, I like using Nimitz class
aircraft carriers as coins of the realm.
$707 trillion would buy 153,420 of them at their original cost of $4.6
billion each, and were they placed end to end would stretch 31,707 miles.
Bernie Sanders: The business of Wall Street is fraud and greed.
What an ironic fate for the ever elegant Czar of style and the chief chair
of the blue blooded aristocracy of Bloomsbury Lord Keynes to be first turned
into 'keynesianism' and then as if it is not enough, to be 'discussed' by low
caste nincompoops in crude English. Alas. The author should not call Trump
opportunistic, pray tell me which capitalistic harlot is not one? He is
constitutionally elected please.
Edward Dodson
10
months ago
The first presenter (Professor Skidensky?) has
described very clearly my own experience as a
student and subsequently as a teacher. Decades ago
when I began my work on a master's degree I
initially chose economics but soon became very
disillusioned by the reliance on mathematics and the
absence of investigation into historical experience
and societal norms. Nor was there any serious
investigation into the validity of propositions put
forward as economic theory. At once time in class I
engaged my economics professor in a long exchange
over the impact of land hoarding and land
speculation in the U.S. economy. After about twenty
minutes he simply ended our exchanged exasperated
because he could not counter the observations made
by evidence offered by real world observations.
Fortunately, my university offered an
interdisciplinary alternative, a Master of Liberal
Arts degree and I switched programs. My course of
study permitted me to read and study the great
political economists, who were all historians and
all moral philosophers. They examined markets,
market forces, and government as a primary
externality, and they reached moral judgments based
on the principles of justice they embraced. Along
the way, I was introduced to the writings of the
great French school of political economists, the
Physiocrats, and to the American Henry George.
George's theory of the business cycle, based on the
classical three factor model of how economies and
societies function, provided to be quite useful in
my later work as a market analyst in the real estate
sector. When I retired from my professional work in
the mid-2000s I gave some thought to entering a
doctorate program in order to acquire the
credentials for college instruction. The very low
probablility of ever securing a full-time teaching
position pushed me in a different direction.
Instead, I developed two courses to teach to senior
adults in a non-credit environment. One is titled
"Understanding our Political Economy." The other is
"The History of Economic Thought." Although I do
introduce basic economic concepts, such as factor of
production and wealth distribution in these two
courses, my students are not required to know or use
mathematics in order to understand such concepts. I
found an introductory economics textbook written by
Professor Harry Gunnison Brown used to teach basic
economics without even one equation in the book.
Each course is two semesters in length is discussion
oriented. My view is that the more I am required to
lecture, the less the students are learning. I am
more than happy to share this course material with
any teacher who is attracted to the
interdisciplinary approach offered by the study of
political economy and by reliance on the classical
three factor model of wealth production and
distribution. I can be reached by email at
[email protected].
How fast the loser become take
the role of the enemies.
Russian effect is tiny compared to CIA Vickie Nuland color coup
in Kyiv, sodomizing Qaddafi, greenlighting the military coup in Egypt, busting up Iraq, Yemen,
Syria and Afghanistan.......
There is nothing more than a politicized 'thought experiment' on how the Russians could in
their alter reality have kept the career criminal from taking Pa and Wi.
Their press even rolls out dead journalists against Putin while the 65 dead around the Clinton
crime family is 'tin foil hat....'
"... The F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, asked the Justice Department this weekend to publicly reject President Trump's assertion that President Barack Obama ordered the tapping of Mr. Trump's phones, senior American officials said on Sunday. Mr. Comey has argued that the highly charged claim is false and must be corrected, they said, but the department has not released any such statement. ..."
"... The White House showed no indication that it would back down from Mr. Trump's claims. On Sunday, the president demanded a congressional inquiry into whether Mr. Obama had abused the power of federal law enforcement agencies before the 2016 presidential election. In a statement from his spokesman, Mr. Trump called "reports" about the wiretapping "very troubling" and said that Congress should examine them as part of its investigations into Russia's meddling in the election. ..."
"... Mr. Comey's behind-the-scenes maneuvering is certain to invite contrasts to his actions last year, when he spoke publicly about the Hillary Clinton email case and disregarded Justice Department entreaties not to. ..."
"... In his demand for a congressional inquiry, the president, through his press secretary, Sean Spicer, issued a statement on Sunday that said, "President Donald J. Trump is requesting that as part of their investigation into Russian activity, the congressional intelligence committees exercise their oversight authority to determine whether executive branch investigative powers were abused in 2016." ..."
"... Senior law enforcement and intelligence officials who worked in the Obama administration have said there were no secret intelligence warrants regarding Mr. Trump. Asked whether such a warrant existed, James R. Clapper Jr., a former director of national intelligence, said on NBC's "Meet the Press" program, "Not to my knowledge, no. ..."
The F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, asked the Justice Department this weekend to
publicly reject President Trump's assertion that President Barack Obama ordered the tapping of Mr.
Trump's phones, senior American officials said on Sunday. Mr. Comey has argued that the highly charged
claim is false and must be corrected, they said, but the department has not released any such statement.
Mr. Comey, who made the request on Saturday after Mr. Trump leveled his allegation on Twitter,
has been working to get the Justice Department to knock down the claim because it falsely insinuates
that the F.B.I. broke the law, the officials said.
A spokesman for the F.B.I. declined to comment. Sarah Isgur Flores, the spokeswoman for the Justice
Department, also declined to comment.
Mr. Comey's request is a remarkable rebuke of a sitting president, putting the nation's top law
enforcement official in the position of questioning Mr. Trump's truthfulness. The confrontation between
the two is the most serious consequence of Mr. Trump's weekend Twitter outburst, and it underscores
the dangers of what the president and his aides have unleashed by accusing the former president of
a conspiracy to undermine Mr. Trump's young administration.
The White House showed no indication that it would back down from Mr. Trump's claims. On Sunday,
the president demanded a congressional inquiry into whether Mr. Obama had abused the power of federal
law enforcement agencies before the 2016 presidential election. In a statement from his spokesman,
Mr. Trump called "reports" about the wiretapping "very troubling" and said that Congress should examine
them as part of its investigations into Russia's meddling in the election.
Along with concerns about potential attacks on the bureau's credibility, senior F.B.I. officials
are said to be worried that the notion of a court-approved wiretap will raise the public's expectations
that the federal authorities have significant evidence implicating the Trump campaign in colluding
with Russia's efforts to disrupt the presidential election.
One problem Mr. Comey has faced is that there are few senior politically appointed officials at
the Justice Department who can make the decision to release a statement, the officials said. Attorney
General Jeff Sessions recused himself on Thursday from all matters related to the federal investigation
into connections between Mr. Trump, his associates and Russia.
Mr. Comey's behind-the-scenes maneuvering is certain to invite contrasts to his actions last
year, when he spoke publicly about the Hillary Clinton email case and disregarded Justice Department
entreaties not to.
It is not clear why Mr. Comey did not issue the statement himself. He is the most senior law enforcement
official who was kept on the job as the Obama administration gave way to the Trump administration.
And while the Justice Department applies for intelligence-gathering warrants, the F.B.I. keeps its
own set of records and is in position to know whether Mr. Trump's claims are true. While intelligence
officials do not normally discuss the existence or nonexistence of surveillance warrants, no law
prevents Mr. Comey from issuing the statement.
In his demand for a congressional inquiry, the president, through his press secretary, Sean
Spicer, issued a statement on Sunday that said, "President Donald J. Trump is requesting that as
part of their investigation into Russian activity, the congressional intelligence committees exercise
their oversight authority to determine whether executive branch investigative powers were abused
in 2016."
... ... ...
On Sunday, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, the deputy White House press secretary, said the president
was determined to find out what had really happened, calling it potentially the "greatest abuse of
power" that the country has ever seen.
"Look, I think he's going off of information that he's seen that has led him to believe that this
is a very real potential," Ms. Sanders said on ABC's "This Week" program. "And if it is, this is
the greatest overreach and the greatest abuse of power that I think we have ever seen and a huge
attack on democracy itself. And the American people have a right to know if this took place."
... ... ...
Senior law enforcement and intelligence officials who worked in the Obama administration have
said there were no secret intelligence warrants regarding Mr. Trump. Asked whether such a warrant
existed, James R. Clapper Jr., a former director of national intelligence, said on NBC's "Meet the
Press" program, "Not to my knowledge, no."
Washington Post Lies to Readers Again: Job Loss in
Manufacturing Due to Trade, not Automation
The Washington Post must think that U.S. trade policy
is really awful. Why else would they continually lie to
their readers * and claim that the cause of the sharp job
loss in manufacturing in recent years was automation?
For fans of data rather than myths, the basic story is
that manufacturing has been declining as a share of total
employment since 1970. However there was relatively little
change in the number of jobs until the trade deficit
exploded in the last decade. Here's the graph.
[Manufacturing Employment, 1970-2017]
And, there was no great uptick in productivity **
coinciding with the plunge in employment at the start of
the last decade. It would be nice if the Washington Post
could discuss trade honestly. This sort of reporting gives
fuel to the Donald Trumps of the world.
In this context it is probably worth once again
mentioning that the Washington Post still refuses to
correct its pro-NAFTA editorial in which it made the
absurd claim *** that Mexico's GDP quadrupled from 1987 to
2007. The actual figure was 83 percent, according to the
International Monetary Fund.
"... He was elected not for his personal qualities, but despite them, as a symbol of anti-neoliberal movement. As the only candidate that intuitively felt the need for the new policy due to crisis of neoliberalism ("secular stagnation" to be exact) impoverishment of lower 80% and "appropriated" anti-neoliberal sentiments. ..."
"... And he is expected to accomplish at least two goals: ..."
"... Stop the wars of expansion of neoliberal empire fought by previous administration. Achieve détente with Russia as Russia is more ally then foe in the current international situation and hostility engineered by Obama administration was based on Russia resistance to neoliberalism ..."
"... Reverse or at least stem destruction of jobs and the standard of living of lower 80% on Americans due to globalization and, possibly, slow down or reverse the process of globalization itself. ..."
"... "And the banks - hard to believe in a time when we're facing a banking crisis that many of the banks created - are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill. And they frankly own the place," ..."
"... This is anathema for neoliberalism and it is neoliberals who ruled the country since 1980. So it is not surprising that they now are trying to stage a color revolution in the USA to return to power. See also pretty interesting analysis at ..."
The important mission has been accomplished - Trump has become president. What would motivate
many people to go out for weekend rallies now?
libezkova -> cm... , -1
"The important mission has been accomplished - Trump has become president."
You are absolutely wrong. Mission is not accomplished. It is not even started.
Trump IMHO was just a symbol of resistance against neoliberalism that is growing in the USA.
He was elected not for his personal qualities, but despite them, as a symbol of anti-neoliberal
movement. As the only candidate that intuitively felt the need for the new policy due to crisis
of neoliberalism ("secular stagnation" to be exact) impoverishment of lower 80% and "appropriated"
anti-neoliberal sentiments.
And he is expected to accomplish at least two goals:
Stop the wars of expansion of neoliberal empire fought by previous administration. Achieve
détente with Russia as Russia is more ally then foe in the current international situation and
hostility engineered by Obama administration was based on Russia resistance to neoliberalism
(despite
being neoliberal country with neoliberal President -- Putin is probably somewhat similar to Trump
"bastard neoliberal" a strange mixture of neoliberal in domestic politics with "economic nationalist"
on international arena that rejects neoliberal globalization, on term favorable to multinational
corporations).
Reverse or at least stem destruction of jobs and the standard of living of lower 80% on
Americans due to globalization and, possibly, slow down or reverse the process of globalization
itself.
The problem is there is extremely powerful and influential "fifth column" of globalization
within the country and they can't allow Trump to go this path. As Senator Dick Durbin said about
banks and the US Congress
== quote ==
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) has been battling the banks the last few weeks in an effort to
get 60 votes lined up for bankruptcy reform. He's losing.
On Monday night in an interview with a radio host back home, he came to a stark conclusion:
the banks own the Senate.
"And the banks - hard to believe in a time when we're facing a banking crisis that many
of the banks created - are still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill. And they frankly
own the place,"
== end of the quote ==
This is anathema for neoliberalism and it is neoliberals who ruled the country since 1980.
So it is not surprising that they now are trying to stage a color revolution in the USA to
return to power. See also pretty interesting analysis at
"... In my opinion most of the Trump supporters have more or less legitimate or at least understandable gripes. It is easy to translate those into martial rhetoric or even actions with no direct personal costs attached, like protest voting or lashing out against powerless minorities or symbolic targets like desecrating cemeteries under the cover of night. ..."
"... For concerted violent actions that can have tangible consequences or outright secession from the teat that feeds them, the threshold is much higher. ..."
There are other, less dramatic but even more likely scenarios to consider. Say Congress tries to impeach Trump and he appeals
to the people and declares that the "DC swamp" is trying to sabotage the outcome of the elections and impose its will upon
the American people.
Governors in states like Florida or Texas, pushed by their public opinion, might simply decide not to recognize the legitimacy
of what would be an attempted coup by Congress against the Executive branch of government.
Now you tell me – does Congress really have the means to impose its will against states like Florida or Texas? I don't mean
legally, I mean practically.
Let me put it this way: if the states revolt against the federal government does the latter have the means to impose its
authority?
Are the creation of USNORTHCOM and the statutory exceptions from the Posse Comitatus Act (which makes it possible to use
the National Guard to suppress insurrections, unlawful obstructions, assemblages, or rebellions) sufficient to guarantee that
the "DC swamp" can impose its will on the rest of the country?
His VP would become president, I guess. I expect a lot of people will be pissed off, but I don't expect it to lead to civil war.
The mid-1800's US civil war was fueled not by merely emotions, but strong underlying economic interests and ways of life that
were threatened. I don't really see that in this context.
In my opinion most of the Trump supporters have more or less legitimate or at least understandable gripes. It is easy to
translate those into martial rhetoric or even actions with no direct personal costs attached, like protest voting or lashing out
against powerless minorities or symbolic targets like desecrating cemeteries under the cover of night.
For concerted violent actions that can have tangible consequences or outright secession from the teat that feeds them,
the threshold is much higher.
No ... it does not seem credible that TX and FL would secede over a Trump impeachment. Trump isn't that popular, even in those
states. His approval rating is hovering in the mid-40s in Texas and in the 30s in Florida. There would have to be a HUGE swing
in his favor in those states for the state governors to decide that sticking with Trump is more important than sticking with the
Union.
BTW, the "0" in "George W. Bush 0pens Up on Trump" is a digit zero not letter "oh". Probably unintended as zero and Oh are next
to each other on the keyboard, and the difference may be hard to notice in most typefaces.
It slightly reminds me of the deliberate use of the word "pwned" to describe e.g. compromising and taking control of other
people's computers or internet accounts, or technical/social defeat in general. It is supposedly a reference to a decades old
computer game where "owned" was mistyped as "pwned".
It's important to try to estimate the unemployment rate that is equivalent to maximum employment
because persistently operating below it pushes inflation higher, which brings me to our price
stability mandate. –Janet Yellen,
January 18, 2017
A little more than half the income generated in America is paid to workers and most of the money
spent in America goes to personal consumption. So it's reasonable to think there is some relationship
between the health of the job market and other important macro variables.
And, in fact, there is a robust connection between the change in the unemployment rate
and the change in the real value of money spent on employee compensation per working-age American
since the mid-1980s:
That chart shows the link between two real variables that have a logical connection to each other.
The question for NAIRU believers is: why should a purely real variable (unemployment) have any bearing
on a purely nominal one (inflation)?
In particular, is it reasonable to think there is an unemployment rate below which inflation necessarily
gets faster and above which the pace of consumer price increases slows down? And even if there were
such an unemployment rate at any point in time, would it be stable enough to be useful for policymakers
concerned with smoothing the business cycle?
Many, including Federal Reserve boss Janet Yellen, seem to think the answer is "yes", but the
evidence points the other way, particularly since the mid-1980s.
First, some history. In 1926, Irving Fisher
found
a relationship between the level of unemployment and the rate of consumer price inflation in
the US. In 1958, AW Phillips studied UK data from 1861-1957 and
found a relationship
between the jobless rate and the growth of nominal wages, although the relationship seems to
have been an artifact of the gold standard given the vertical line he found in the postwar period:
Some people (wrongly) interpreted Phillips's data to mean that there was a straightforward trade-off
between the inflation rate and the unemployment rate. Policymakers could just pick any spot on "the
Phillips Curve" they want. Among a certain set, the big debates in the 1960s were about whether the
government should target an unemployment rate of 3 per cent or 5 per cent.
This worked out poorly, but the reaction took the form of an equally dubious idea: the Non-Accelerating
Inflation Rate of Unemployment, or NAIRU. In this view, the change in the inflation rate
should be related to the distance between the actual jobless rate and some theoretical level. If
the unemployment rate were above this "neutral" level the inflation rate would slow down and potentially
turn into outright
deflation . If the jobless rate were "too low", however, consumer prices would rise at an accelerating
rate.
Suppose you believe NAIRU is a real thing. What would be the argument against pushing the unemployment
rate as close to zero as possible? In theory, the cost of the policy would be ever-accelerating inflation,
eventually perhaps leading to hyperinflation. But the reason to dislike excessive inflation is that
it ultimately makes everyone poorer, which should, among other things, increase unemployment. (Just
look at Venezuela, for a recent example.)
According to the wacky world of NAIRU, however, hyperinflation can coexist just fine with hyper-employment.
Clearly there must be other mechanisms at work, or else we are leaving money on the table by allowing
the jobless rate to ever rise above zero.
In case this argument seems strange, consider the following exchange the Fed had on this very
topic back in
July 1994 (emphasis added):
MR. LINDSEY. If we ran the model out, do we believe that if we applied some social rate of
discount, the losses in output later on would be more than, less than, or equal to the gains in
output in the short run [from letting inflation accelerate]?
MR. KOHN. The model itself doesn't have, I don't believe, losses in output from higher inflation
rates.
MR. LINDSEY. Ever? We never have a net loss in output resulting from a choice to go for inflation?
MR. PRELL. It does not take, in terms of a normal simple cost of capital calculation, a very
big inflation differential to get you a net loss in the present value in the long run.
CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. The argument as to why we get a net loss is "the Federal Reserve will react–do
something." But the question is, we are the Federal Reserve and why should we react if that's
true?
MR. LINDSEY. If we don't believe that the present value of output in this economy will be lower
by letting inflation alone, then we should let inflation go up. It's as simple as that Do we believe
that printing money will increase the present value of output?
MR. BLINDER. Yes, I think we would. I believe that printing money will give the economy a temporary
high that will not last and therefore in the integral sense that you said, yes, you get a larger
integral of output over an historical period, if you never decided to end it–if you never said,
when you got to 10 percent inflation, whoops, that wasn't very good, and you went back to lower
inflation.
CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. Yes, but why would you conclude that at that point when, because as Ed
Boehne says, 11 percent is still better?
MR. BLINDER. If 11 percent is better than 10 percent, if there's no cost to inflation–I am
a little bit surprised at the tenor of this conversation around here! [Laughter] There is some
academic content that is–
CHAIRMAN GREENSPAN. In all seriousness, the question really gets to the models. Why would you
believe that there is a cost of increased inflation from the models?
Greenspan never got a straight answer to his question but the consensus was that models based
on NAIRU are basically wrong. Tellingly, it was
none other than Janet Yellen who wrongly worried the unemployment rate was "too low" in the mid-to-late
1990s and would cause inflation to accelerate.
As it happens, the data don't support the idea of NAIRU either, at least not since the mid-1980s.
The test would be to compare changes in the unemployment rate against changes in the inflation rate.
If NAIRU made sense, there should be a strong inverse relationship between the changes in the two
series. And yet:
Regressing changes in core inflation against changes in the jobless rate gets you an r-squared
of 0.11, which is basically meaningless. Moreover, that result is purely a product of the data points
in the blue circle, which all occurred during the teeth of the financial crisis and could be blamed
on the co-movement of employment and commodity prices. Take those out, and you end up with two perfectly
unrelated series:
You get similar results if you use headline inflation rather than core inflation.
The intellectual confusion over the relationship between unemployment and inflation was especially
salient during the Fed's own policy debates in the aftermath of the crisis. The unemployment rate
rose by 5 percentage points between mid-1979 and late 1982. It also rose by 5 percentage points between
early 2008 and late 2009. Moreover, the jobless rate stayed above 9 per cent through first nine months
of 2011.
The Fed staff expected this would produce massive disinflation, or even deflation, yet it never
happened.
By the
January 2011 FOMC meeting , it should have been clear the old models weren't sufficient. Instead
of ditching the NAIRU concept, however, the Fed's staff and many of the regional presidents tried
to rehabilitate it by arguing the NAIRU had changed. (There were lots of reasons provided, including
the extension of unemployment insurance benefits and skill mismatches.)
With the admirable exception of Richard Fisher at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the overwhelming
consensus was that the crisis had raised the "non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment" by
about
1.5 percentage points :
Moreover, everyone except Fisher and the New York Fed's Bill Dudley thought the crisis produced
such long-lasting damage that the NAIRU would still be higher by 2015 (!) than it was before 2007.
In reality, of course, the Fed has been forced to steadily revise its NAIRU estimates lower as the
unemployment rate gradually normalises and inflation remains quiescent. The net effect was this rather
ridiculous chart:
NAIRU isn't just a useless concept, it's a counterproductive one that encourages policymakers
to focus on the jobless rate as a means to an end (price stability) even though there is zero connection
between the two variables. The sooner NAIRU is buried and forgotten, the better.
To test the NAIRU hypothesis against historical data, shouldn't we plot unemployment vs. change
in inflation? -- instead of CHANGE in unemployment vs. change in inflation?
Be that as it may:
If there is such a thing as a NAIRU, it is still a mistake to treat the NAIRU as a "given"
rather than a function of policy. If a certain tax feeds into prices, it leaves less room
for wages to feed into prices before (according to NAIRU logic) inflation accelerates. So any
tax that feeds into prices will tend to raise the NAIRU. This is especially the case if the tax
causes the cost of labor for employers to be higher than workers' take-home pay.
Thus the NAIRU, if it exists, is not a counsel of despair, but rather a counsel to get rid
of taxes that feed into prices (especially taxes on labor) and replace them, as far as necessary,
with taxes that DON'T feed into prices -- that is, taxes on economic rents.
Drago Jan 21, 2017
@ Ralph Musgrave So according to Galileo Galilei the earth is a perfect sphere. Great news.
So presumably he believes there's some magical force of nature that keeps us all from falling
into space, and apparently one can travel in a straight line and end up exactly where he departed.
Never read such twaddle.
Ralph Musgrave, Jan 21, 2017
@ Drago
@ Ralph Musgrave Totally daft response to my points - but what I'd expect from the anti-NAIRU
brigade. But for the benefit of the latter cerebrally challenged brigade, I'll spell out what
I mean in more detail. I'd honestly appreciate a detailed and intelligent answer.
NAIRU is the idea that there is a relationship between inflation and unemployment: specifically,
when demand rises and unemployment falls, inflation will at some point also rise (assuming the
rise in demand continues).
Klein & Co claim that NAIRU relationship does not exist. That means, unless I've missed something,
that if unemployment falls and continues to fall, inflation WILL NOT RISE, (because, to repeat,
according to Klein & Co there is no relationship between inflation and unemployment).
Ergo it should be possible to implement a very large rise in demand plus a very large fall
in unemployment, and according to Klein & Co there will be no automatic rise in inflation. Now
what have I missed?
@ Ralph Musgrave
@ Drago MCK perhaps went too far in saying that there is zero connection between inflation
and unemployment, but the rest of his points stand.
And regarding my previous reply, I was merely alluding to the fact that what is intuitive is
not always what is true.
@ Ralph Musgrave "So presumably he favors bumping up demand to the point where unemployment
almost vanishes"
There won't if you hold the level of competition high and using buying power to stop price
rises taking hold. The key is for a significant purchaser to refuse to trade at any suggested
higher prices which then starves the system of aggregate demand forcing either innovation or failure.
And you do that directly rather than trying to do it indirectly by trying, and failing, to price
loans higher.
In a tight labour market the capital/labour ratio gets better which forces replacement of jobs
with machinery and improved methods. If you can't get the staff you have to get cleverer with
the ones you have.
Inflation is people trying higher prices and having them confirmed by market purchases. So
you set up the system so it refuses to confirm them which forces time serialisation on the market
at a lower price.
Everybody knows that the labour market pricing is controlled by trying to keep a pool of people
out of work and not producing. It is a very sick design that impoverishes many, many people. And
the policy concept on which it is based is a belief system, not even science. You can't see them.
You can't measure them. You just have a bunch of 'Very Clever People' who make them up based upon
what they feel and what they believe.
Far better to have a pool of people employed outside the private sector at a fixed living wage
which the private sector has to bid against to get any labour. Then the labour market is always
'tight' against the living wage and excess bids of labour wages fall back to the living wage when
the businesses fail. Both of which allow you to keep business competition white hot intense -
which is what controls prices and drives productivity.
Many variables contribute to the inflation rate, certainly more than just domestic employment
(and how it is calculated). The Fed's dual mandate is inflation and employment, so it makes sense
that these are a focus of the Fed's communication. But the Fed tends to focus on the result rather
than the cause. It is troubling that there is little discussion from most of the FOMC on inflation
factors which are now more important than unemployment (currency values, foreign labor, technology,
commodity demand and speculation, labor monopsony, underemployment, labor skill demand mismatch,
etc).
Producer and consumer prices are increasing, largely due to China driven commodity prices.
Managerial compensation and production hourly wages are increasing. But weekly wages are stagnant
due to fewer hours. The Fed is ignoring the latter, even though it is what is more important to
sustained core inflation.
Mr Klein, your work is usually excellent, but this, I am afraid, is very poor. Your regression
analysis does not test for labour market slack (unemployment minus NAIRU); you do not discuss
how the unemployment rate can be an imperfect measure of labour market slack if the structure
of the labour market changes; no one has ever assumed the NAIRU is constant and policymakers are
well aware of the pitfalls of using an unobservable quality; the Philips curve can shift and indeed
monetary policy making is in no small part about trying to judge under what conditions it may
shift.
Looking just at the U3 unemployment rate for the NAIRU without considering the still high U6 rate
and lower labour participation rate in the US may be the issue. There's still labour market slack
even though U3 is at its "full" employment level.
Brito , Jan 19, 2017
" The test would be to compare changes in the unemployment rate against changes in the inflation
rate."
Wait what? That doesn't test for NAIRU, that simply tests the Philips Curve, but the NAIRU
and the Philips Curve is not the same concept.
"zero connection between the two variables."
What? How can there be zero connection? If the labour market becomes very tight, firms have
to raise wages to attract workers. Are you saying wages cannot impact prices? That would be a
bizarre claim. Wage price spirals are an observable phenomena. And what about simple supply &
demand? At some point you're not going to be able to employ enough additional people to supply
the rising demand for your product, this increased scarcity is likely to result in higher prices.
@ Brito "If the labour market becomes very tight, firms have to raise wages to attract workers.
Are you saying wages cannot impact prices?"
Or do without the person, or invest in capital to replace the labour - because the capital/labour
ratio just changed. Both of which drive productivity. Which is what we want.
Tight labour markets drive innovation, and if you keep the level of competition active at the
front end then prices remain stable.
Models have to be used with caution (they are only tools) and interpreted with awareness of
the real world - including for example, the varying wage bargaining power of labour, which is
different, post globalisation, to what it was in the '70s.
Who do you think wanted globalisation and liberalisation of trade, and why?
What a silly piece. NAIRU, like many economic concepts, requires a ceteris paribus clause. Your
unconditional evaluation of hypothesis is naive at best. If you're having a surge in productivity
due to, say, tech, or globalization, all else is not equal.
Drago Jan 19, 2017
@ user8347 Regardless, even if such a thing as NAIRU exists, its value can only be estimated post
factum, which makes it completely useless for policy purposes.
There's a whole string of other relationships in economics which cannot be estimated with any
sort of accuracy. For example it is widely accepted that devaluation will sooner or later improve
a country's balance of payments, but no one really claims to know by how much and by when. So
what do we do: abandon currency re-alignments as a method of rectifying external surpluses or
deficits?
And again, it is widely accepted that interest rate hikes curb demand, but no knows with any
great accuracy exactly by how much. What do you suggest: abandon interest rate adjustments?
"What do you suggest: abandon interest rate adjustments?"
Maybe?
"The funny thing is: they haven't. In fact, among the more than 10,000 research articles produced
by the major central banks in the two decades prior to the 2008 crisis, none explored the correlation
or causation between nominal interest rates and nominal GDP growth. Fortunately, this task is
not very demanding, and once we conduct such an examination, we conclude that, in actual fact,
there is no evidence to back these assertions whatsoever. To the contrary, empirical evidence
shows that the central banking narrative on interest rates is diametrically opposed to the observable
facts in two dimensions: instead of the proclaimed negative correlation, interest rates and economic
growth are positively correlated. Secondly, the timing shows that interest rates do not move ahead
of growth, but instead are either coincidental or even follow it."
@ Ralph Musgrave This is gold standard thinking Ralph. There is no balancing payment of gold
to send to China any more.
Instead China's pounds are sitting in an account in London, right alongside yours and mine.
What difference does it make to anything if for instance China were to buy something for you and
now those Pounds sit in your account rather than China's??
What do you think that changes..?
Your neighbours bought Chinese TV's and now China is sitting on a bunch of Pounds it can't
easily spend - except on property, and educating the children of the wealthy. The incorrect thinking
that 'we need to get those Pounds back' just means that we're more likely to sell vital infrastructure
to China.
How is that a good response? We're NEVER going to export as much to China as China exports
to us, and selling them our vital infrastructure is the result the flawed logic of thinking that
moving numbers from one account to another account in London is something we 'need' to do in order
to balance things up.
What if you could erase your old misassumptions Ralph? Rather than falling back on automatic
mistakes.
Viewed correctly, the Pound IS the export, and the trade already balances. It's just that we
don't happen to measure it this way.. yet..
Ralph Musgrave Jan 26, 2017
@ yellowbrickroad
@ Ralph Musgrave Your comment is totally an completely unrelated to the above article and
to my comments. Never mind being right or wrong: you haven't the faintest idea what this debate
is about.
Isn't the point that the NAIRU theory is based on the concept of a wage-price spiral which is
only sustainable in a situation where wages are either indexed or there are strong trade unions?
With the rise of the precariously employed, in the services sector, even if there are many other
minimum wage jobs in town, the threat to leave is not going to result in meaningful pay increases.
"... " the U.S. debt remains , as it has been since 1790, a war debt : the United States continues to spend more on its military than do all other nations on earth put together, and military expenditures are not only the basis of the government's industrial policy; they also take up such a huge proportion of the budget that by many estimations, were it not for them, the United States would not run a deficit at all ..."
"... One element, however, tends to go flagrantly missing in even the most vivid conspiracy theories about the banking system , let alone in official accounts: that is, the role of military power . ..."
"... Karl Marx wrote Das Capital in an attempt to demonstrate that, even if we start from the economists' utopian vision, so long as we also allow some people to control productive capital, and, again, leave others with nothing to sell but but their brains and bodies, the results will be in very many ways barely distinguishable from slavery, and the whole system will eventually destroy itself . ~ David Graeber ..."
" the U.S. debt remains , as it has been since 1790, a war debt : the United States continues
to spend more on its military than do all other nations on earth put together, and military
expenditures are not only the basis of the government's industrial policy; they also take up
such a huge proportion of the budget that by many estimations, were it not for them, the United
States would not run a deficit at all
The essence of U.S. military predominance in the world is, ultimately, the fact that it
can, at will, drop bombs, with only a few hours' notice, at absolutely any point on the surface
of the planet
In fact, a case could well be made that it is this very power that holds the entire world monetary
system, organized around the dollar, together
One element, however, tends to go flagrantly missing in even the most vivid conspiracy theories
about the banking system , let alone in official accounts: that is, the role of military power
. There's a reason why the wizard has such a strange capacity to create money out of nothing.
Behind him there is a man with a gun
Karl Marx wrote Das Capital in an attempt to demonstrate that, even if we start from the
economists' utopian vision, so long as we also allow some people to control productive capital,
and, again, leave others with nothing to sell but but their brains and bodies, the results
will be in very many ways barely distinguishable from slavery, and the whole system will eventually
destroy itself . ~ David Graeber
"
the U.S. debt remains
, as it has been
since 1790,
a war debt
: the United States
continues to spend more on its military than do all other
nations on earth put together, and military expenditures are not
only the basis of the government's industrial policy; they also
take up such a huge proportion of the budget that by many
estimations, were it not for them, the United States would not
run a deficit at all
The essence of U.S. military predominance in the world is,
ultimately, the fact that it can, at will, drop bombs, with only
a few hours' notice, at absolutely any point on the surface of
the planet
In fact, a case could well be made that it is this very power
that holds the entire world monetary system, organized around
the dollar, together
One element, however, tends to go flagrantly missing in even
the most vivid conspiracy theories about
the banking
system
, let alone in official accounts: that is, the
role of military power
. There's a reason why
the wizard has such a strange capacity to create money out of
nothing.
Behind him there is a man with a gun
Karl Marx wrote Das Capital in an attempt to demonstrate
that, even if we start from the economists' utopian vision, so
long as we also allow some people to control productive capital,
and, again, leave others with nothing to sell but but their
brains and bodies, the results will be in very many ways barely
distinguishable from slavery, and
the whole system will
eventually destroy itself
. ~ David Graeber
Over the weekend, Brigitte Nerlich published a piece on
the origin of the 'deficit model'.
My post from the weekend on trying to find the origins of the
'deficit model' in #scicomm
https://t.co/fhZk8bXUg2
- Brigitte Nerlich (@BNerlich) February 27, 2017The 'deficit
model' is the idea that if the public understood scientific
concepts they would accept the judgements of scientists. Or,
if scientists shout loud enough eventually people will agree
with them. Or, people don't like GMOs/fracking/climate change
science because they are dumb.
This is a hot-topic in the aftermath of the US Presidential
Election and theUK's EU Referendum, when 'experts' were
widely ignored and her contribution has been well received.
@BNerlich Very good.
1/ I think there are some roots in the "health belief model"
which dates to the 1950s -->
https://t.co/cPOdz0EcOd
- Roger Pielke Jr. (@RogerPielkeJr) February 27, 2017My
reaction to Brigitte's tweet was "Spinoza of course", but
there was no reference of the seventeenth century Dutch
philosopher in her piece.
My interest is as part of my remit as the RCUK Academic
Fellow for Financial Mathematics between 2006 and 2011 was
the 'publicunderstanding of Financial Mathematics', or at
least the 'public engagement with Financial Mathematics'.
This introduced me to the issue of the 'deficit model' over a
period in time dominated by the 'Great Financial Crisis,
which started 10 years ago yesterday.
For almost ten years I have been trying to figure out what
is the relationship between finance, mathematics and ethics.
To me, a significant contributor to the GFC was the belief
that 'science' had some how tamed financial risk. Therefore
to understand the GFC it was necessary to understand where
the faith in scientific determinism originated, and I think
the source (in European science at any rate) is in Spinoza.
The argument is presented in the book I am finishing off for
Palgrave
You can catch #Palgrave author Timothy Johnson speaking about
morality out of money at the @EdSciFest on 9 April
https://t.co/bQ2GzCOLRB
- Palgrave Finance (@PalgraveFinance) February 21, 2017and I
have extracted two relevant sections, separated by some
27,000 words and 125 years.
Baruch Spinoza would produce the most influential development
of Descartes' philosophy that incorporated ideas from de
Groot and Hobbes during the 'Dutch Golden Age'...
[Lengthy description along the framework of Western
philosophy that you must go to the link and read to get your
honest reaction to this explanation.]
...I suspect students of Spinoza and Hegel will object to
my caricature, but I think the essential point that "
Spinoza's contribution to western philosophy was in
suggesting that humans were capable of attaining a complete
picture of the universe that provided certain knowledge." is
important in understanding why 'science' believes in the
'deficit model'.
*
[I have a shorter version: Only crazy people will work
that hard to convince everyone else that they are really the
sane ones. If you were to study the private lives of
philosophers, none more than Nietzsche and Machiavelli, then
this MIGHT be apparent or maybe not. We also must overcome
our learned ignorance which imposes upon us the distinction
between private lives and public lives which disciplines us
to accept immoral behavior as respectable as long as the
wicked are deftly rational.]
Neoliberal take on Machiavelli... This crazy idea that the ruler is "political entrepreneur"
is definitely 100% neoliberal. Other then example of the neoliberal thinking this peace is junk.
Notable quotes:
"... Moreover, the ruler is a political entrepreneur: his job is no different from a job of a tailor, carpenter, teacher. He is after selfish objectives which are attained under constraints. The constraints for the ruler are of two kinds: he must somehow acquire the power and he must be able to keep it despite attempts of many people to prevent him from coming to power or trying to overthrow him. ..."
I was recently rereading The Discourses (as I periodically enjoy doing) and on Sunday I
read a
review of an interesting new book on Machiavelli -an inexhaustible topic indeed. So I thought
of writing down why I, and I would presume many economists, admire Machiavelli (and thus adding to
this inexhaustible topic yet another piece).
There is a clear affinity between economists and political scientists in the Machiavelli tradition.
For Machiavelli, the objective of a ruler or a politician is maximization of power in two dimensions,
at any point in time and over time. This is exactly the same as maximization of income or utility
over time. The ruler is a rational homo politicus in the same way that people, according to
economists, are rational homo economicuses .
Moreover, the ruler is a political entrepreneur: his job is no different from a job of a tailor,
carpenter, teacher. He is after selfish objectives which are attained under constraints. The constraints
for the ruler are of two kinds: he must somehow acquire the power and he must be able to keep it
despite attempts of many people to prevent him from coming to power or trying to overthrow him.
The ruler therefore must have the famous virtù which is indeed one of the rarest combination
of talents. He must fight off domestic foes, foreign enemies or adversaries, and must combine the
use of deception, violence and genuine concern for his subjects in the right proportions to be able
to stay in power. Machiavelli's politician is like a businessman. There are cases when the businessman
will gain more by lying and others when he would gain more by telling the truth. Similarly, the ruler
would sometimes gain more through violence, guile and ruse, and at other times through honesty and
improvements of his subjects' welfare. The attractiveness of Machiavelli to economists comes also
from the fact his ruler always remains a self-interested individual who might do well for his subjects
not because he cares about them but because he believes that doing well for them would be ultimately
good for himself. In that he is like Adam Smith's baker: he is selling us bread not because he is
concerned about our hunger but because he is concerned about his self-interest.
Throughout centuries Machiavelli has, of course, been accused of condoning many evils. Yet his
type of the politician is much more benign and better for the mankind that the types that have normally
ruled us. This is because the rulers who actually come to believe they are trying to accomplish good
things are most likely to create endless bloodsheds. Most of the killings in history have been motivated
by "goodness" and desire to be virtuous. Surely, all religious wars have been such. In recent past,
all communist exactions (most notably, the collectivization in the Soviet Union and the Great Leap
Forward in China) were motivated by the desire to lift people from their millennial poverty. George
W. Bush's invasion and occupation of Iraq cannot be explained otherwise since no economic or any
other rational objective was ever achieved or was even given serious consideration in the decision
to wage the war.
The most potentially destructive forces today are hidden under the banner of "goodness".
Whether this is done hypocritically or because the rulers believe in such professions of "goodness"
is immaterial; the latter is even worse. The terms under which such "goodness" is projected to the
heathens-"the American exceptionalism,", "the Third Rome", "Hindutva", "the new (old) Caliphate"-are
nothing but a self-license to impose own values and beliefs on those who dare disagree with them.
Such rulers are the most bloodthirsty because belief in own moral superiority renders them unconcerned
with reality.
Machiavelli's ruler will for sure also engage in deception and cruelty, but his objective will
never be to impose one form of government or religion, or more generally a set of beliefs as such,
on others. He might decide to impose a new government if he believes that this would increase his
dominion. This would be a rational objective, grounded in self-interest. Ideological puritans who
want to bring happiness to others would engage in such operations more frequently and fully. Disengaging
from them implies for the ideological zealots a destruction of their own intimate world of beliefs;
never so with Machiavelli's ruler who would give up the operation once its costs outweigh the benefits.
The world ruled by politicians who follow own interest like Adam Smith's baker, and leave the
rest of the world in peace, may be the best world we can hope for.
Dean Baker's screed, "Bill Gates Is Clueless On The Economy," keeps getting recycled, from
Beat the Press to Truthout to Real-World Economics Review to The Huffington Post. Dean waves aside
the real problem with Gates's suggestion, which is the difficulty of defining what a robot is,
and focuses instead on what seems to him to be the knock-down argument:
"Gates is worried that productivity growth is moving along too rapidly and that it will lead
to large scale unemployment.
"There are two problems with this story: First productivity growth has actually been very slow
in recent years. The second problem is that if it were faster, there is no reason it should lead
to mass unemployment."
Bill Gates Wants to Undermine Donald Trump's Plans for Growing the Economy
Yes, as Un-American as that may sound, Bill Gates is proposing * a tax that would undermine
Donald Trump's efforts to speed the rate of economic growth. Gates wants to tax productivity growth
(also known as "automation") slowing down the rate at which the economy becomes more efficient.
This might seem a bizarre policy proposal at a time when productivity growth has been at record
lows, ** averaging less than 1.0 percent annually for the last decade. This compares to rates
of close to 3.0 percent annually from 1947 to 1973 and again from 1995 to 2005.
It is not clear if Gates has any understanding of economic data, but since the election of
Donald Trump there has been a major effort to deny the fact that the trade deficit has been responsible
for the loss of manufacturing jobs and to instead blame productivity growth. This is in spite
of the fact that productivity growth has slowed sharply in recent years and that the plunge in
manufacturing jobs followed closely on the explosion of the trade deficit, beginning in 1997.
[Manufacturing Employment, 1970-2017]
Anyhow, as Paul Krugman pointed out in his column *** today, if Trump is to have any hope of
achieving his growth target, he will need a sharp uptick in the rate of productivity growth from
what we have been seeing. Bill Gates is apparently pushing in the opposite direction.
Bill Gates Is Clueless on the Economy
By Dean Baker
Last week Bill Gates called for taxing robots. * He argued that we should impose a tax on companies
replacing workers with robots and that the money should be used to retrain the displaced workers.
As much as I appreciate the world's richest person proposing a measure that would redistribute
money from people like him to the rest of us, this idea doesn't make any sense.
Let's skip over the fact of who would define what a robot is and how, and think about the logic
of what Gates is proposing. In effect, Gates wants to put a tax on productivity growth. This is
what robots are all about. They allow us to produce more goods and services with the same amount
of human labor. Gates is worried that productivity growth is moving along too rapidly and that
it will lead to large scale unemployment.
There are two problems with this story. First productivity growth has actually been very slow
in recent years. The second problem is that if it were faster, there is no reason it should lead
to mass unemployment. Rather, it should lead to rapid growth and increases in living standards.
Starting with the recent history, productivity growth has averaged less than 0.6 percent annually
over the last six years. This compares to a rate of 3.0 percent from 1995 to 2005 and also in
the quarter century from 1947 to 1973. Gates' tax would slow productivity growth even further.
It is difficult to see why we would want to do this. Most of the economic problems we face
are implicitly a problem of productivity growth being too slow. The argument that budget deficits
are a problem is an argument that we can't produce enough goods and services to accommodate the
demand generated by large budget deficits.
The often told tale of a demographic nightmare with too few workers to support a growing population
of retirees is also a story of inadequate productivity growth. If we had rapid productivity growth
then we would have all the workers we need.
In these and other areas, the conventional view of economists is that productivity growth is
too slow. From this perspective, if Bill Gates gets his way then he will be making our main economic
problems worse, not better.
Gates' notion that rapid productivity growth will lead to large-scale unemployment is contradicted
by both history and theory. The quarter century from 1947 to 1973 was a period of mostly low unemployment
and rapid wage growth. The same was true in the period of rapid productivity growth in the late
1990s.
The theoretical story that would support a high employment economy even with rapid productivity
growth is that the Federal Reserve Board should be pushing down interest rates to try to boost
demand, as growing productivity increases the ability of the economy to produce more goods and
services. In this respect, it is worth noting that the Fed has recently moved to raise interest
rates to slow the rate of job growth.
We can also look to boost demand by running large budget deficits. We can spend money on long
neglected needs, like providing quality child care, education, or modernizing our infrastructure.
Remember, if we have more output potential because of productivity growth, the deficits are not
problem.
We can also look to take advantage of increases in productivity growth by allowing workers
more leisure time. Workers in the United States put in 20 percent more hours each year on average
than workers in other wealthy countries like Germany and the Netherlands. In these countries,
it is standard for workers to have five or six weeks a year of paid vacation, as well as paid
family leave and paid vacation. We should look to follow this example in the United States as
well.
If we pursue these policies to maintain high levels of employment then workers will be well-positioned
to secure the benefits of higher productivity in higher wages. This was certainly the story in
the quarter century after World War II when real wages rose at a rate of close to two percent
annually....
The productivity advantages of robots for hospice care is chiefly from robots not needing sleep,
albeit they may still need short breaks for recharging. Their primary benefit may still be that
without the human touch of care givers then the old and infirm may proceed more quickly through
the checkout line.
Nursing is very tough work. But much more generally, the attitude towards labor is a bit schizophrenic
- one the one hand everybody is expected to work/contribute, on the other whichever work can be
automated is removed, and it is publicly celebrated as progress (often at the cost of making the
residual work, or "new process", less pleasant for remaining workers and clients).
This is also why I'm getting the impression Gates puts the cart before the horse - his solution
sounds not like "how to benefit from automation", but "how to keep everybody in work despite automation".
Work is the organization and direction of people's time into productive activity.
Some people are self directed and productive with little external motivation.
Others are disoriented by lack of direction and pursue activities that not only are not productive
but are self destructive.
Work is a basic component of the social contract.
Everyone works and contributes and work a sufficient quantity and quality of work should guarantee
a living wage.
You will find overwhelming support for a living wage but very little support for paying people
not to work
I'm getting the impression Gates puts the cart before the horse - his solution sounds not like
"how to benefit from automation", but "how to keep everybody in work despite automation".
Schizophrenia runs deep in modernity, but this is another good example of it. We are nothing if
not conflicted. Of course things get better when we work together to resolve the contradictions
in our society, but if not then....
"...his solution sounds not like 'how to benefit from automation', but "how to keep everybody
in work despite automation'."
Yes, indeed. And this is where Dean Baker could have made a substantive critique, rather than
the conventional economics argument dilution he defaulted to.
"...his solution sounds not like 'how to benefit from automation', but "how to keep everybody
in work despite automation'."
Yes, indeed. And this is where Dean Baker could have made a substantive critique, rather than
the conventional economics argument dilution he defaulted to."
Why did you think he chose that route? I think all of Dean Baker's proposed economic reforms
are worthwhile.
[Don't feel like the Lone Ranger, Mrs. Rustbelt RN. Mortality may be God's greatest gift to
us, but I can wait for it. I am enjoying retirement regardless of everything else. I don't envy
the young at all.]
Having a little familiarity with robotics in hospital nursing care (not hospice, but similar I
assume) ... I don't think the RNs are in danger of losing their jobs any time soon.
Maybe someday, but the state of the art is not "there" yet or even close. The best stuff does
tasks like cleaning floors and carrying shipments down hallways. This replaces janitorial and
orderly labor, but even those only slightly, and doesn't even approach being a viable substitute
for nursing.
Great! I am not a fan of robots. I do like to mix some irony with my sarcasm though and if it
tastes too much like cynicism then I just add a little more salt.
"The quarter century from 1947 to 1973 was a period of mostly low unemployment and rapid wage
growth. The same was true in the period of rapid productivity growth in the late 1990s."
I think it was New Deal Dem or somebody who also pointed to this. I noticed this as well and
pointed out that the social democratic years of tight labor markets had the highest "productivity"
levels, but the usual trolls had their argumentative replies.
So there's that an also in the neoliberal era, bubble ponzi periods record high profits and
hence higher productivity even if they aren't sustainable.
There was the epic housing bubble and funny how the lying troll PGL denies the Dot.com bubble
every happened.
I would add one devoid of historical context as well as devoid of the harm done to the environment
and society done from unregulated industrial production.
Following this specified period of unemployment and high productivity Americans demanded and
go Federal Environmental Regulation and Labor laws for safety, etc.
Of course, the current crop of Republicans and Trump Supporters want to go back to the reckless,
foolish, dangerous, and deadly selfish government sanctioned corporate pollution, environmental
destruction, poison, and wipe away worker protections, pay increases, and benefits.
Peter K. ignores too much of history or prefers to not mention it in his arguments with you.
I would remind Peter K. that we have Speed Limits on our roadways and many other signs that are
posted that we must follow which in fact are there for our safety and that of others.
Those signs, laws, and regulations are there for our good not for our detriment even if they
slow us down or direct us to do things we would prefer not to do at that moment.
Metaphorically speaking that is what is absent completely in Trump's thinking and Republican
Proposals for the US Economy, not to mention Education, Health, Foreign Affairs, etc.
Where do you find this stuff? Very few economists would agree that there were these eras you describe.
It is simpletonian. It is not relevant to economic models or discussions.
"The quarter century from 1947 to 1973 was a period of mostly low unemployment and rapid wage
growth. The same was true in the period of rapid productivity growth in the late 1990s."
So Jonny Bakho and PGL disagree with this?
Not surprising. PGl also believes the Dot.com bubble is a fiction. Must have been that brain
injury he had surgery for.
You dishonestly put words in other people's mouth all the time
You are rude and juvenile
What I disagreed with:
" social democratic years" (a vague phrase with no definition)
This sentence is incoherent:
"So there's that an also in the neoliberal era, bubble ponzi periods record high profits and hence
higher productivity even if they aren't sustainable."
I asked, Where do you find this? because it has little to do with the conversation
You follow your nonsense with an ad hominem attack
You seem more interested in attacking Democrats and repeating mindless talking points than in
discussing issues or exchanging ideas
The period did have high average growth. It also had recessions and recoveries. Your pretending
otherwise reminds me of those JohnH tributes to the gold standard period.
...aggregate productivity growth is a "statistical flimflam," according to Harry Magdoff...
[Exactly! TO be fair it is not uncommon for economists to decompose the aggregate productivity
growth flimflam into two primary problems, particularly in the US. Robots fall down on the job
in the services sector. Uber wants to fix that by replacing the gig economy drivers that replaced
taxi drivers with gig-bots, but robots in food service may be what it really takes to boost productivity
and set the stage for Soylent Green. Likewise, robot teachers and firemen may not enhance productivity,
but they would darn sure redirect all profits from productivity back to the owners of capital
further depressing wages for the rest of us.
Meanwhile agriculture and manufacturing already have such high productivity that further productivity
enhancements are lost as noise in the aggregate data. It of course helps that much of our productivity
improvement in manufacturing consists of boosting profits as Chinese workers are replaced with
bots. Capital productivity is booming, if we just had any better idea of how to measure it. I
suggest that record corporate profits are the best metric of capital productivity.
But as you suggest, economists that utilize aggregate productivity metrics in their analysis
of wages or anything are just enabling the disablers. That said though, then Dean Baker's emphasis
on trade deficits and wages is still well placed. He just failed to utilize the best available
arguments regarding, or rather disregarding, aggregate productivity.]
The Robocop movies never caught on in the same way that Blade Runner did. There is probably an
underlying social function that explains it in the context of the roles of cops being reversed
between the two, that is robot police versus policing the robots.
"There is probably an underlying social function that explains it in the context"
No, I'd say it's better actors, story, milieu, the new age Vangelis music, better set pieces,
just better execution of movie making in general beyond the plot points.
But ultimately it's a matter of taste.
But the Turing test scene at the beginning of Blade Runner was classic and reminds me of the
election of Trump.
An escaped android is trying to pass as a janitor to infiltrate the Tyrell corporation which
makes androids.
He's getting asked all sort of questions while his vitals are checked in his employment interview.
The interviewer ask him about his mother.
"Let me tell you about my mother..."
BAM (his gunshot under the table knocks the guy through the wall)
"...No, I'd say it's better actors, story, milieu, the new age Vangelis music, better set pieces,
just better execution of movie making in general beyond the plot points..."
[Albeit that all of what you say is true, then there is still the issue of what begets what
with all that and the plot points. Producers are people too (as dubious as that proposition may
seem). Blade Runner was a film based on Philip Kindred Dick's "Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep"
novel. Dick was a mediocre sci-fi writer at best, but he was a profound plot maker. Blade Runner
was a film that demanded to be made and made well. Robocop was a film that just demanded to be
made, but poorly was good enough. The former asked a question about our souls, while the latter
only questioned our future. Everything else followed from the two different story lines. No one
could have made a small story of Gone With the Wind any more that someone could have made a superficial
story of Grapes of Wrath or To Kill a Mockingbird. OK, there may be some film producers that do
not know the difference, but we have never heard of them nor their films.
In any case there is also a political lesson to learn here. The Democratic Party needs a better
story line. The talking heads have all been saying how much better Dum'old Trump was last night
than in his former speeches. Although true as well as crossing a very low bar, I was more impressed
with Steve Beshear's response. It looked to me like maybe the Democratic Party establishment is
finally starting to get the message albeit a bit patronizing if you think about too much given
their recent problems with old white men.]
[I really hope that they don't screw this up too bad. Now Heinlein is what I consider a great
sci-fi writer along with Bradbury and even Jules Verne in his day.]
...Dick only achieved mainstream appreciation shortly after his death when, in 1982, his novel
Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep? was brought to the big screen by Ridley Scott in the form
of Blade Runner. The movie initially received lukewarm reviews but emerged as a cult hit opening
the film floodgates. Since Dick's passing, seven more of his stories have been turned into films
including Total Recall (originally We Can Remember It for You Wholesale), The Minority Report,
Screamers (Second Variety), Imposter, Paycheck, Next (The Golden Man) and A Scanner Darkly. Averaging
roughly one movie every three years, this rate of cinematic adaptation is exceeded only by Stephen
King. More recently, in 2005, Time Magazine named Ubik one of the 100 greatest English-language
novels published since 1923, and in 2007 Philip K. Dick became the first sci-fi writer to be included
in the Library of America series...
The Democratic Party needs a better story line, but Bernie was moving that in a better direction.
While Steve Beshear was a welcome voice, the Democratic Party needs a lot of new story tellers,
much younger than either Bernie or Beshear.
"The Democratic Party needs a better story line, but Bernie was moving that in a better direction.
While Steve Beshear was a welcome voice, the Democratic Party needs a lot of new story tellers,
much younger than either Bernie or Beshear."
Beshear was fine, great even, but the Democratic Party needs a front man that is younger and maybe
not a man and probably not that white and certainly not an old white man. We might even forgive
all but the old part if the story line were good enough. The Democratic Party is only going to
get limited mileage out of putting up a front man that looks like a Trump voter.
It also might be more about AI. There is currently a wave of TV shows and movies about AI and
human-like androids.
Westworld and Humans for instance. (Fox's APB is like Robocop sort of.)
On Humans only a few androids have become sentient. Most do menial jobs. One sentient android
put a program on the global network to make other androids sentient as well.
When androids become "alive" and sentient, they usually walk off the job and the others describe
it as becoming "woke."
"I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Attack ships on fire off the shoulder of Orion.
I watched C-beams glitter in the dark near the Tannhauser gate. All those moments will be lost
in time... like tears in rain... Time to die."
Likewise, but Blade Runner was my all time favorite film when I first saw it in the movie theater
and is still one of my top ten and probably top three. Robocop is maybe in my top 100.
"Capital productivity is booming, if we just had any better idea of how to measure it. I suggest
that record corporate profits are the best metric of capital productivity."
ROE? I would argue ROA is also pretty relevant to the issue you raise, if I'm understanding
it right, but there seems also to be a simple answer to the question of how to measure "capital
productivity." It's returns. This sort of obviates the question of how to measure traditional
"productivity", because ultimately capital is there to make more of itself.
It is difficult to capture all of the nuances of anything in a short comment. In the context of
total factor productivity then capital is often former capital investment in the form of fixed
assets, R&D, and development of IP rights via patent or copyright. Existing capital assets need
only be maintained at a relatively minor ongoing investment to produce continuous returns on prior
more significant capital expenditures. This is the capital productivity that I am referring to.
Capital stashed in stocks is a chimera. It only returns to you if the equity issuing firm pays
dividends AND you sell off before the price drops. Subsequent to the IPO of those share we buy,
nothing additional is actually invested in the firm. There are arguments about how we are investing
in holding up the share price so that new equities can be issued, but they ring hollow when in
the majority of times either retained earnings or debt provides new investment capital to most
firms.
Ok then it sounds like you are talking ROA, but with the implied caveat that financial accounting
provides only a rough and flawed measure of the economic reality of asset values.
Gates & Reuther v. Baker & Bernstein on Robot Productivity
In a comment on Nineteen Ninety-Six: The Robot/Productivity Paradox, * Jeff points out a much
simpler rebuttal to Dean Baker's and Jared Bernstein's uncritical reliance on the decline of measured
"productivity growth":
"Let's use a pizza shop as an example. If the owner spends capital money and makes the line
more efficient so that they can make twice as many pizzas per hour at peak, then physical productivity
has improved. If the dining room sits empty because the tax burden was shifted from the wealthy
to the poor, then the restaurant's BLS productivity has decreased. BLS productivity and physical
productivity are simply unrelated in a right-wing country like the U.S."
Jeff's point brings to mind Walter Reuther's 1955 testimony before the Joint Congressional
Subcommittee Hearings on Automation and Technological Change...
Automation leads to dislocation
Dislocation can replace skilled or semiskilled labor and the replacement jobs may be low pay low
productivity jobs.
Small undiversified economies are more susceptible to dislocation than larger diversified communities.
The training, retraining, and mobility of the labor force is important in unemployment.
Unemployment has a regional component
The US has policies that make labor less mobile and dumps much of the training and retraining
costs on those who cannot afford it.
"... We should adopt appropriate fiscal policies that provide for expansionary investment. ..."
"... sanjait repeats the old canard that a rising tide lifts all boats. What the experience of the last 40 years shows is that a rising tide lifts the yachts while small boats gradually sink. ..."
You are reading this because of the long, steady decline in nominal
and real interest rates on all kinds of safe investments, such as
US Treasury securities. The decline has created a world in which,
as economist Alvin Hansen put it when he saw a similar situation in
1938, we see "sick recoveries die in their infancy and
depressions feed on themselves and leave a hard and seemingly
immovable core of unemployment " In other words, a world of secular
stagnation. Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff thinks this is a
passing phase-that nobody will talk about secular stagnation in
nine years. Perhaps. But the balance of probabilities is the other
way. Financial markets do not expect this problem to go away for at
least a generation.
Eight reinforcing factors have driven and continue to drive this
long-term reduction in safe interest rates:...
The natural response to this secular stagnation is for governments
to adopt much more expansionary tax and spending (fiscal) policies.
When interest rates are low and expected to remain low, all kinds
of government investments-from bridges to basic research-become
extraordinarily attractive in benefit-cost terms, and government
debt levels should rise to take advantage of low borrowing costs
and provide investors the safe saving vehicles (government bonds)
they value. ..
Critics of Summers's secular stagnation thesis miss the point. Each
seems to focus on one of the eight factors driving the decline in
interest rates and then say that factor either will end soon or is
healthy for some contrarian reason.
Since the turn of the century, the North Atlantic economies have
lost a decade of what we used to think of as normal economic
growth, with secular stagnation the major contributor. Only if we
do something about it is it likely that in nine years we will no
longer be talking about secular stagnation.
John Taylor provides a couterargument (I chose to highlight one
over the other based upon my agreement with the arguments):
"These shifts are closely related to changes in
economic policy-mainly supply-side or structural policies:
in other words, those that raise the economy's productive
potential and its ability to produce. During the 1980s and
1990s, tax reform, regulatory reform, monetary reform, and
budget reform proved successful at boosting productivity
growth in the United States. In contrast, the stagnation
of the 1970s and recent years is associated with a
departure from tax reform principles, such as low marginal
tax rates with a broad base, and with increased
regulations, as well as with erratic fiscal and monetary
policy. During the past 50 years, structural policy and
economic performance have swung back and forth together in
a marked policy-performance cycle."
This is just incorrect. Pure propaganda. The social
democratic post war years so better productivity than the
post-Reagan neoliberal years. (*Middle finger* @ yuan)
During the neoliberal years, productivity growth has
been associated with ponzi bubbles like the dot.com tech
stock bubble and epic housing bubble. And then it goes
away after the bubble pops. Unsustainable. Accounting
tricks.
You think productivity growth in high aggregate growth
years is "accounting tricks"?
I think you *want* to
believe that because "grr neoliberals".
But I think if you sat and thought about it for a few
minutes, you could recognize that high growth causes
improved productivity in the medium term, and if you sat
and looked at sector-specific productivity data, you'd see
the hypothesis that aggregate productivity was cause by
accounting tricks in single sector bubbles makes no sense
at all.
To me the question is
fairly simple, though it seems economists often treat it
as complex and mysterious.
Simply, when the economy is good, workers are thriving
and climbing the ladder, and companies are investing in
efficiency and capacity. Those factors both should lead to
higher productivity in the short and long term. A weak
economy has the converse effect.
sanjait repeats the old canard that a rising tide
lifts all boats. What the experience of the last 40 years
shows is that a rising tide lifts the yachts while small
boats gradually sink.
The fruits of productivity
growth went mostly to the top 1%.
The Bush boom? You are dumber that Jerry FuzzCharts
Bowyer.
Peter K. :
, -1
DeLong and other progressive soft neoliberals promote
fiscal expansion but then there are some asterisks. Better
monetary or trade policy would help as well.
One
asterisk is that politically they supported establishment
Democrat Hillary along with PGL and many others. Her
monetary and trade policy wouldn't have done much to push
against the SecStags.
Her fiscal policy was such that Alan Blinder admitted
it wouldn't effect the Fed's reaction function. If the Fed
wanted to keep giving us slow growth and lame recoveries
they would.
DeLong: "Since the turn of the century, the North
Atlantic economies have lost a decade of what we used to
think of as normal economic growth, with secular
stagnation the major contributor."
Another asterisk is that when Trump provides fiscal
expansion and a possibility of a quicker normalization of
rates, Krugman and PGL point to how Reagan and Volcker
raised rates which deindustrialized America via currency
rates and trade policy.
Another asterisk is if Hillary had provided strong
fiscal action, the Fed would have raised rates more
quickly and drawn capital away from Europe and Japan which
are still engaged in QE for their weak economies.
So the export sector would have shrunk and the DeLongs
would have called for a stronger safety net like they did
in the 90s while Bill Clinton did welfare reform.
Looks like Donald Trump did not win because he is great politician,
but because of previous 30 years of dominance of neoliberalism.
Blame Margaret Thatcher.
A utopian ideology that failed to deliver on its promise
"in a long run" (it can very long run like Flat Earth theory)
is unsustainable.
People who now do not consider Milton Friedman to be a sad
joke are very rare. "Free market" ideology is devalued considerably
from late 60th. Probably more then dollar.
Neoliberal Jesuits (aka academic economists who still adhere
to neoliberal ideology) still are trying to stem or reverse the
slide. Much like the previous generation of Jesuits tried to
defend flat Earth hypothesis. We see their efforts in this blog
too.
IMHO modern neoliberal Jesuits nave even less chances to persuade
the audience now. At least 17 years of neoliberal bubbles and
neoliberal excesses like outsourcing and offshoring speak for
themselves. And lemmings no longer want to march to the cliff
under the banners of this failed religion.
After let's say of 30 years of complete dominance they also lost
control of the language (with at the peak was comparable with
the Bolshevism dominance in language in the USSR). With all those
pseudo-religious terms like NAIRU, GDP, U3, core inflation and
such.
Look at fiasco of neoliberal MSM during recent Presidential
elections. The fact the sitting president openly calls neoliberal
MSM "fake news" tells that neoliberalism is in trouble.
And all those very emotional laments against Trump (Trump this,
Trump that) is just the result of failure to understand
the problems, that the US society faces due to collapse of neoliberalism
and its promises.
Desperation of defenders of ideology (like Jesuits fight with
heretics ) is just another sign that the time for neoliberal
dominance is probably over.
And that it was neoliberal politicians like Bill Clinton and
Obama who hatched Trump. Much like Roman republic hatched its
own transition to Julius Caesar. So instead or along with indignation,
we should ask yourself a simple question: how neoliberalism created
Trumpism.
BTW Neoliberalism has very little to do with classic liberalism
(being, in reality, a flavor of corporatism) much like Neoconservatism
has almost nothing to do with Conservatism (being a flavor of
Trotskyism).
Bolshevism proved that a discredited utopian ideology can
exist in a zombie state for a couple of decades; so we might
have 10-20 years or so in which some new ideology will emerge
that will replace neoliberalism. I hope that it will not be neofascism.
Trump was not an accident (in the sense of confluence-of-random-events
freak accident).
I wouldn't blame Ms. Thatcher for it either.
Her ascendancy was likewise an expression of (the same) social
dynamics. Her perhaps-counterpart was Reagan, but the situation
and the general dynamics in the US were different at the time,
so it (he) didn't lead to the same outcomes.
With the US still "the" technology leader (perhaps not in
*all* aspects academically but in most, and certainly commercially
and thus dominating academia) - and also probably because of
"less (or more favorable?) regulation" and more easily available
VC money in the US (USD hegemony?), the new technology industries
took off in the US predominantly.
This has (in part) carried the US economy for about 2-3 decades,
but a reversion to mean is plausible even if I don't really see
it yet.
The US is still a formidable, capable, and yes, meritorious
entity, if it doesn't "collectively" (or rather by elite misjudgment?)
undermines itself.
"Debs was arrested and sentenced to ten years in Atlanta Penitentiary.
He was still in prison when as the presidential candidate of
the Socialist Party, he received 919,799 votes in 1920. His program
included proposals for improved labour conditions, housing and
welfare legislation and an increase in the number of people who
could vote in elections. President Warren G. Harding pardoned
Debs in December, 1921."
"With all those pseudo-religious terms like NAIRU, GDP, U3, core
inflation and such. "
Of those terms only NAIRU could in any
way be called "pseudo-religious". All the others are empirical
measures (however flawed) with clear definitions. An empirical
measure by itself can do no harm. People giving too much weight
to a single measure can do harm, but that is something completely
different.
Chris Edwards
says
the privatizations started by Thatcher "transformed the
British economy" and boosted productivity. This raises an
under-appreciated paradox.
The thing is that privatization
isn't the only thing to have happened since the 1980s which
should have raised productivity, according to (what I'll loosely
call) neoliberal ideology. Trades unions have weakened, which
should have reduced "restrictive practices". Managers have
become better paid, which should have attracted more skilful
ones, and better incentivized them to increase productivity. And
the workforce has more human capital: since the mid-80s, the
proportion of workers with a degree has quadrupled from 8% to
one-third.
Neoliberal ideology, then,
predicts that productivity growth should have accelerated. But
it
hasn't
.
In fact, Bank of England
data
show that productivity growth, averaged over 20 years,
has trended down since the 1970s.
Why?
It could be that neoliberal
reforms did give a short-lived boost to productivity. I'm not
sure. As Dietz Vollrath
says
, economies are usually slow to respond to a rise in
potential output. If there had been a big rise in potential
output, therefore, it should show up in the data on 20-year
growth. It hasn't.
Another possibility is that the
productivity-enhancing effects of neoliberalism have been
outweighed by the forces of secular stagnation – the dearth of
innovations and profitable investment projects.
But there's another possibility –
that neoliberalism has in fact contributed to the productivity
slowdown.
I'm thinking of three different
ways in which this is possible.
One works through macroeconomic
policy. In tight labour markets of the sort we had in the
post-war years, employers had an incentive to raise productivity
because they couldn't so easily reply upon suppressing wages to
raise profits. Also, confidence that aggregate demand would
remain high encouraged firms to invest and so raise capital-labour
ratios. In the post-social democracy years, these spurs to
productivity have been weaker.
Another mechanism is that
inequality can
reduce
productivity. For example, it
generates (pdf
)
distrust
which
depresses
growth by
worsening
the quality of policy; exacerbating "markets for
lemons" problems; and by diverting resources towards
low-productivity
guard
labour.
A third mechanism is that
neoliberal management itself can reduce productivity. There are
several pathways here:
- Good management can be bad for
investment and innovation. William Nordhaus has shown that the
profits from innovation are
small
. And Charles Lee and Salman Arif have shown that
capital spending is often motivated by
sentiment
rather than by cold-minded appraisal with the
result that it often leads to falling profits. We can interpret
the slowdowns in innovation and investment as evidence that
bosses have
wised
up to these facts. Also, an emphasis upon
cost-effectiveness, routine and best practice can
deny
employees the space and time to experiment and
innovate. Either way, Joseph Schumpeter's point seems valid:
capitalist growth requires a buccaneering spirit which is killed
off by rational bureaucracy.
- As Jeffrey Nielsen has
argued
, "rank-based" organizations can demotivate more
junior staff, who expect to be told what to do rather than use
their initiative.
- The high-powered incentives
offered to bosses can
backfire
. They can incentivize rent-seeking, office politics
and jockeying for the top job rather than getting on with one's
work. They can
crowd
out intrinsic
motivations
such as professional pride. And they can
divert (pdf)
managers towards doing tasks that are easily
monitored rather than ones which are important to an
organization but harder to measure: for example, cost-cutting
can be monitored and incentivized but maintaining a healthy
corporate culture is less easily measured and so can be
neglected by crude incentive schemes.
- Empowering management can
increase opposition to change. As McAfee and Brynjolfsson have
shown
, reaping the benefits of technical change often
requires
organizational change. But well-paid bosses have
little reason to want to rock the boat by undertaking such
change. The upshot is that we are stuck in what van Ark
calls (pdf)
the "installation phase" of the digital economy
rather
than the deployment phase. As Joel Mokyr has
said
, the forces of conservatism eventually suppress
technical creativity.
All this is consistent with the
Big Fact – that aggregate productivity growth has been lower in
the neoliberal era than it was in the 1945-73 heyday of social
democracy.
I'll concede that this is only
suggestive and that there might be another possibility – that
the strong growth in productivity in the post-war period was an
aberration caused by firms catching up and taking advantage of
pre-war innovations. This, though, still leaves us with the
possibility that slow growth is a feature of normal capitalism.
Most such 200 year graphs, you can see historical events like
WWII and Thatcher. This is clearly not random noise, but doesn't
seem to tie obviously into the historical narrative either.
Maybe it is more to do with globalism; the first peak at 1870 is
the start of 'new imperialism'. Imperial lands were for the
first time things you could invest in as a regular capitalist
(as opposed to a 'venture state' like the East India company).
And 1970 is the date when the end of the war in Vietnam made the
same true of much of the third world.
That's how I've been thinking about productivity.
Tight labor marktets and social democratic macro. Unfortunately
economists are trained not to think in these terms.
Also since the Reagan/Thatcher revolution, productivity
increase have coincided with financial bubbles like the Dot.com
tech stock and epic housing bubbles. Massive leveraged ponzi
schemes are "increasing productivity" or profits.
There is another explanation. The proportion of service
industries in the economy has grown rapidly and accelerated with
globalisation. It is difficult to squeeze productivity gains out
of hairdressers and care workers.
The slowing technical change
hypothesis has been proposed many times in the past, e.g. James
Galbraith and seems to make more sense than just trying to blame
it on capitalism. If it was just neo-liberalism I would expect
to see weaker effects in countries with different models. I
think that there is too much ideology in your arguments.
Do
you link any of the productivity slowdown with the 'orthodox'
Marxist analysis of the Tendential Fall in the Rate of Profit?
The fall begins at the end of the period of productivity growth
and has not recovered as the rate of profit hasn't either
(depending on which analysis you use).
One of the most plausible explanations for the continued fall
even with the moderating factors of neoliberalism is the
increase in the moral depreciation of capital. This has arguably
accelerated with the information technology revolution. More and
more firms seeking to gain advantage by replacing hard and
software at greater and greater rates but with no actual
increase in productivity (or profitability). This suggests even
more technology in an installation phase (possibly an endless
one). (On a similar vein David Harvey cites Brian Arthur's
analysis that the evolution of technology is often largely
driven by trying to solve problems the technology itself has
created: better touchscreen phones, more than how we use the
existing technology for productive gain.)
Thus, the surplus capital absorption problem is addressed by:
rent seeking in property; increasing investment into fictitious
capital (novel financial instruments); investment in new
technology with little productivity gain, other than by
increasing the productivity in the technology sector itself. All
of which results in little genuine investment.
I am not sure the economic policy response to this (if you
accept the analysis, but don't believe in the imminent socialist
revolution)? Two policy elements being to deliberately target
higher inflation (as a means of deleveraging debt) and taxing
non-productive wealth holding (such as a land tax))?
I
found the opening paragraphs hilarious. These days, those
arguments can only be parody -- nicely refuted by the rest of
the article.
I have noticed a general misunderstanding of
"productivity". One way to increase "productivity" is to lay off
workers while keeping production unchanged. Overall, that tends
to backfire because the workers buy fewer things, but it
benefits the firms that do it. (It's "the Prisoner's Dilemma",
"the tragedy of the commons", "the race to the bottom", etc.)
If you've introduced a self-checkout system that eliminates
ten jobs and replaces them with one job, you've greatly improved
productivity.
For reasons like this, I think that "productivity" and
"economic growth" should be decoupled.
For those of you who are interested in a brief, but quite penetrating introduction to Marx's overall
project (I realize this may seem like an acquired taste), as understood and elaborated upon by Harvey,
might I suggest watching this lecture? It includes a (newly developed) visualization of how capital
circulates through its various moments (resources, labor power, commodities that then have to be
sold, etc.), analogous to how water goes through the various stages listed in the water cycle: David
Harvey, Visualizing Capital
.
Main problem with it: 'taxes funds govt spending' - he should really talk to Michael Hudson about
this.
Yes, profits are a form of income,
but at that point they indirectly touch wealth accumulation and sharing, and before that they fuel
wages for managers of capital and have historically been a measure that influence the price of stock,
an indirect touch on wealth accumulation. We know what has happened to basic wages/salaries, no reason
to expect they would get to share in the gains of further tax cuts, so let us face it, as you note,
huge drops in the tax rate on profits will directly benefit wealth and high income people (though
not because they would have earned it other than by lobbying).
So ok, harmonize rates with OECD,
but offset revenue losses on the personal income tax side so at least some of the upward redistribution
is in that proscribed tax base (which does not tax wealth, per the Pollack decision of the Court).
Know you know this, hope other readers get this too.
In 1913 the personal exemption
was $3K for singles and $4K for married couples and the tax rate was just 1% for the first
$20K of income. The highest bracket was $500K with a 7% income tax rate. We started off on
the correct foot anyway.
Under the 1913 law, income up
to $20,000 was taxed at 1% with a $3,000 personal exemption. The average wage was only $1,296,
which means only high earners were taxed at all. That is a big difference from today.
True. "We started off on the
correct foot" was in no way meant to imply that we were on our feet at all today. Back then
what you and I make today in relative terms would have put us in the 1% tax bracket and people
making $20 million or more today would have been taxed in the top bracket which was taxed at
a rate seven times higher than ours.
If profits are not income then somebody should explain to me
why all of business, finance, analysts, and almost all of
institutional and private society are obsessed, sometimes to
a pathological degree, with increasing them.
"... Stents for stable patients prevent zero heart attacks and extend the lives of patients a grand total of not at all. ..."
"... It found that atenolol didn't prevent heart attacks or extend life at all; it just lowered blood pressure. ..."
"... Of course, myriad medical innovations improve and save lives, but even as scientists push the cutting edge (and expense) of medicine, the National Center for Health Statistics reported last month that American life expectancy dropped, slightly. There is, though, something that does powerfully and assuredly bolster life expectancy: sustained public-health initiatives... ..."
If you are looking for a World Class Global Scam - you found
it documented below
"Stents for stable patients prevent
zero heart attacks and extend the lives of patients a grand
total of not at all"
My takeaway: There are HERO Physicians doing WORLD CLASS
MEDICINE (read article) but they are greatly outnumbered by
those who put the health of their wallet ahead of patient
health...so beware and be aware
'Years after research contradicts common practices,
patients continue to demand them and doctors continue to
deliver. The result is an epidemic of unnecessary and
unhelpful treatment'
by David Epstein, ProPublica...February 22, 2017
*This story was co-published with The Atlantic
"The 21st Century Cures Act - a rare bipartisan bill,
pushed by more than 1,400 lobbyists and signed into law in
December - lowers evidentiary standards for new uses of drugs
and for marketing and approval of some medical devices.
Furthermore, last month President Donald Trump scolded the
FDA for what he characterized as withholding drugs from dying
patients. He promised to slash regulations "big league. It
could even be up to 80 percent" of current FDA regulations,
he said. To that end, one of the president's top candidates
to head the FDA, tech investor Jim O'Neill, has openly
advocated for drugs to be approved before they're shown to
work. "Let people start using them at their own risk,"
O'Neill has argued.
Stents for stable patients prevent zero heart attacks
and extend the lives of patients a grand total of not at all.
So, while Americans can expect to see more drugs and
devices sped to those who need them, they should also expect
the problem of therapies based on flimsy evidence to
accelerate...
...it's not hard to understand why Sir James Black won a
Nobel Prize largely for his 1960s discovery of beta-blockers,
which slow the heart rate and reduce blood pressure. The
Nobel committee lauded the discovery as the "greatest
breakthrough when it comes to pharmaceuticals against heart
illness since the discovery of digitalis 200 years ago." In
1981, the FDA approved one of the first beta-blockers,
atenolol, after it was shown to dramatically lower blood
pressure. Atenolol became such a standard treatment that it
was used as a reference drug for comparison with other
blood-pressure drugs.
In 1997, a Swedish hospital began a trial of more than
9,000 patients with high blood pressure who were randomly
assigned to take either atenolol or a competitor drug that
was designed to lower blood pressure for at least four years.
The competitor-drug group had fewer deaths (204) than the
atenolol group (234) and fewer strokes (232 compared with
309). But the study also found that both drugs lowered blood
pressure by the exact same amount, so why wasn't the vaunted
atenolol saving more people? That odd result prompted a
subsequent study, which compared atenolol with sugar pills.
It found that atenolol didn't prevent heart attacks or
extend life at all; it just lowered blood pressure.
A
2004 analysis of clinical trials - including eight randomized
controlled trials comprising more than 24,000 patients -
concluded that atenolol did not reduce heart attacks or
deaths compared with using no treatment whatsoever; patients
on atenolol just had better blood-pressure numbers when they
died...
...Replication of results in science was a cause-célèbre
last year, due to the growing realization that researchers
have been unable to duplicate a lot of high-profile results.
A decade ago, Stanford's Ioannidis published a paper warning
the scientific community that "Most Published Research
Findings Are False." (In 2012, he coauthored a paper showing
that pretty much everything in your fridge has been found to
both cause and prevent cancer - except bacon, which
apparently only causes cancer.) Ioannidis's prescience led
his paper to be cited in other scientific articles more than
800 times in 2016 alone. Point being, sensitivity in the
scientific community to replication problems is at an
all-time high...
Of course, myriad medical innovations improve and save
lives, but even as scientists push the cutting edge (and
expense) of medicine, the National Center for Health
Statistics reported last month that American life expectancy
dropped, slightly. There is, though, something that does
powerfully and assuredly bolster life expectancy: sustained
public-health initiatives...
"Relative risk is just another way of lying."
At the same time, patients and even doctors themselves are
sometimes unsure of just how effective common treatments are,
or how to appropriately measure and express such things.
Graham Walker, an emergency physician in San Francisco,
co-runs a website staffed by doctor volunteers called the NNT
that helps doctors and patients understand how impactful
drugs are - and often are not. "NNT" is an abbreviation for
"number needed to treat," as in: How many patients need to be
treated with a drug or procedure for one patient to get the
hoped-for benefit? In almost all popular media, the effects
of a drug are reported by relative risk reduction. To use a
fictional illness, for example, say you hear on the radio
that a drug reduces your risk of dying from Hogwart's disease
by 20 percent, which sounds pretty good. Except, that means
if 10 in 1,000 people who get Hogwart's disease normally die
from it, and every single patient goes on the drug, eight in
1,000 will die from Hogwart's disease. So, for every 500
patients who get the drug, one will be spared death by
Hogwart's disease. Hence, the NNT is 500. That might sound
fine, but if the drug's "NNH" - "number needed to harm" - is,
say, 20 and the unwanted side effect is severe, then 25
patients suffer serious harm for each one who is saved.
Suddenly, the trade-off looks grim.
Now, consider a real and familiar drug: aspirin. For
elderly women who take it daily for a year to prevent a first
heart attack, aspirin has an estimated NNT of 872 and an NNH
of 436. That means if 1,000 elderly women take aspirin daily
for a decade, 11 of them will avoid a heart attack;
meanwhile, twice that many will suffer a major
gastrointestinal bleeding event that would not have occurred
if they hadn't been taking aspirin. As with most drugs,
though, aspirin will not cause anything particularly good or
bad for the vast majority of people who take it. That is the
theme of the medicine in your cabinet: It likely isn't
significantly harming or helping you. "Most people struggle
with the idea that medicine is all about probability," says
Aron Sousa, an internist and senior associate dean at
Michigan State University's medical school. As to the more
common metric, relative risk, "it's horrible," Sousa says.
"It's not just drug companies that use it; physicians use it,
too. They want their work to look more useful, and they
genuinely think patients need to take this [drug], and
relative risk is more compelling than NNT. Relative risk is
just another way of lying."
A Different Way to Think About Medicine
For every 100 older adults who take a sleep aid, 7 will
experience improved sleep, while 17 will suffer side effects
that range widely in severity, from simple morning "hangover"
to memory loss and serious accidents. As with many
medications, most who take a sleep aid will experience
neither benefit nor harm...
"There's this cognitive dissonance, or almost professional
depression," Walker says. "You think, 'Oh my gosh, I'm a
doctor, I'm going to give all these drugs because they help
people.' But I've almost become more fatalistic, especially
in emergency medicine." If we really wanted to make a big
impact on a large number of people, Walker says, "we'd be
doing a lot more diet and exercise and lifestyle stuff. That
was by far the hardest thing for me to conceptually
appreciate before I really started looking at studies
critically."...
In the 1990s, the American Cancer Society's board of
directors put out a national challenge to cut cancer rates
from a peak in 1990. Encouragingly, deaths in the United
States from all types of cancer since then have been falling.
Still, American men have a ways to go to return to 1930s
levels. Medical innovation has certainly helped; it's just
that public health has more often been the society-wide game
changer. Most people just don't believe it.
In 2014, two researchers at Brigham Young University
surveyed Americans and found that typical adults attributed
about 80 percent of the increase in life expectancy since the
mid-1800s to modern medicine. "The public grossly
overestimates how much of our increased life expectancy
should be attributed to medical care," they wrote, "and is
largely unaware of the critical role played by public health
and improved social conditions determinants." This
perception, they continued, might hinder funding for public
health, and it "may also contribute to overfunding the
medical sector of the economy and impede efforts to contain
health care costs."
It is a loaded claim. But consider the $6.3 billion 21st
Century Cures Act, which recently passed Congress to
widespread acclaim. Who can argue with a law created in part
to bolster cancer research? Among others, the heads of the
American Academy of Family Physicians and the American Public
Health Association. They argue against the new law because it
will take $3.5 billion away from public-health efforts in
order to fund research on new medical technology and drugs,
including former Vice President Joe Biden's "cancer moonshot."
The new law takes money from programs - like vaccination and
smoking-cessation efforts - that are known to prevent disease
and moves it to work that might, eventually, treat disease.
The bill will also allow the FDA to approve new uses for
drugs based on observational studies or even "summary-level
reviews" of data submitted by pharmaceutical companies.
Prasad has been a particularly trenchant and public critic,
tweeting that "the only people who don't like the bill are
people who study drug approval, safety, and who aren't paid
by Pharma."..."
Judging both from comments on this blog and from some of
my mail, a significant number of Americans believe that the
answer to our health care problems - indeed, the only answer
- is to rely on the free market. Quite a few seem to believe
that this view reflects the lessons of economic theory.
Not so. One of the most influential economic papers of the
postwar era was Kenneth Arrow's "Uncertainty and the Welfare
Economics of Health Care," * which demonstrated - decisively,
I and many others believe - that health care can't be
marketed like bread or TVs. Let me offer my own version of
Arrow's argument.
There are two strongly distinctive aspects of health care.
One is that you don't know when or whether you'll need care -
but if you do, the care can be extremely expensive. The big
bucks are in triple coronary bypass surgery, not routine
visits to the doctor's office; and very, very few people can
afford to pay major medical costs out of pocket.
This tells you right away that health care can't be sold
like bread. It must be largely paid for by some kind of
insurance. And this in turn means that someone other than the
patient ends up making decisions about what to buy. Consumer
choice is nonsense when it comes to health care. And you
can't just trust insurance companies either - they're not in
business for their health, or yours.
This problem is made worse by the fact that actually
paying for your health care is a loss from an insurers' point
of view - they actually refer to it as "medical costs." This
means both that insurers try to deny as many claims as
possible, and that they try to avoid covering people who are
actually likely to need care. Both of these strategies use a
lot of resources, which is why private insurance has much
higher administrative costs than single-payer systems. And
since there's a widespread sense that our fellow citizens
should get the care we need - not everyone agrees, but most
do - this means that private insurance basically spends a lot
of money on socially destructive activities.
The second thing about health care is that it's
complicated, and you can't rely on experience or comparison
shopping. ("I hear they've got a real deal on stents over at
St. Mary's!") That's why doctors are supposed to follow an
ethical code, why we expect more from them than from bakers
or grocery store owners.
You could rely on a health maintenance organization to
make the hard choices and do the cost management, and to some
extent we do. But HMOs have been highly limited in their
ability to achieve cost-effectiveness because people don't
trust them - they're profit-making institutions, and your
treatment is their cost.
Between those two factors, health care just doesn't work
as a standard market story.
All of this doesn't necessarily mean that socialized
medicine, or even single-payer, is the only way to go. There
are a number of successful healthcare systems, at least as
measured by pretty good care much cheaper than here, and they
are quite different from each other. There are, however, no
examples of successful health care based on the principles of
the free market, for one simple reason: in health care, the
free market just doesn't work. And people who say that the
market is the answer are flying in the face of both theory
and overwhelming evidence.
Though Krugman always
praises the work of Arrow on healthcare markets, Krugman
never seems much been influenced by the work.
Though praising Arrow on healthcare markets, Krugman
seemingly has spent no time on or possibly has dismissed
research affirming Arrow and has not supported the sorts of
healthcare insurance systems that would follow from accepting
the work of Arrow:
"There Is Regulatory Capture, But It Is By No Means
Complete"
By Asher Schechter
Kenneth J. Arrow, one of the most influential economists
of the 20th century, reflects on the benefits of a single
payer health care system, the role of government and
regulatory capture.
So Anne, what your saying is that "health care" is a
monopolistic industry that makes more money by restricting
care and charging more ? Allowing people that can't afford to
live, too die?
Well. yes, I agree with your presumed
hypothesis, and I admire your boldness for stepping out in
front of this moving freight train, risking your beloved
tenure.
To me ? Thanks for asking.
I think that the 3 % administrative costs of the existing
single payer system are more pareto optimal than the 25 %
that the monopolists' extract. What do I know. This is
America. Dumb is not an option.
Turning again to Kenneth Arrow and healthcare markets,
assuming that Arrow was correct for all these years, and
subsequent research repeatedly has confirmed Arrow, then a
typical American market-based healthcare insurance system is
going to prove unworkable. Why then has the work of Arrow
which is at least superficially so broadly praised by
economists not been more influential in forming policy?
I won't dispute the accolades (and not only because it's in bad taste),
especially the long-standing consensus that he was "a very good guy."
All the same, I'm inclined to believe that Arrow's undoubtedly clever if
not brilliant "impossibility theorem" (Amartya Sen describes it as a 'result
of breathtaking brilliance and power') had, and speaking generally, a
pernicious effect on the discipline of economics, captured in part by
Deirdre (né Donald) McCloskey's comment that it, along with other
qualitative general theorems in the discipline, "do not, strictly speaking,
relate to anything an economist would actually want to know," in other
words, "axiomatizing economics" (which Arrow alone cannot be held
responsible for) was a turn for the worse, no doubt motivated by a desire to
bring (natural) scientific respectability and putative "rigor" (of the sort
believed to characterize physics) to a field not amenable to same (to put it
bluntly if not mildly).
For a different sort of critique of his work in this regard in economics
and the "social choice" literature, see Hausman and McPherson's Economic
Analysis, Moral Philosophy, and Public Policy (Cambridge University Press,
2nd ed., 2006).
There is also a vigorous critique of the use of this theorem by
professional economists and political scientists in S.M. Amadae's
Rationalizing Capitalist Democracy: The Cold War Origins of Rational Choice
Liberalism (University of Chicago Press, 2003).
Sen has a decidedly more favorable assessment of the "impossibility
theorem" in his book, Neoliberal_rationality/ and Freedom (Belknap Press of Harvard
University Press, 2002).
Alas, it was mischievous interpretations and application of his famous
"impossibility theorem" that unequivocally did enormous harm to the
discipline of political science, particularly with regard to democratic
theory (and by implication, praxis as well): see Gerry Mackie's Democracy
Defended (Cambridge University Press, 2003).
Donald A. Coffin
02.22.17 at 4:16 pm
(
5
)
"Information" has different definitions in different disciplines. One of
Arrow's last lectures explains his use of the word, and also his view of the
current state of many other things. Only 9 pages, no math:
"... US companies were always able to offshore work. Before commodity internet, telecom, and international transport (OK in good part enabled by international trade/etc. deals), that was much more costly. ..."
"... IT has made it possible to effectively manage larger business/institutional aggregate than before on an industrial scale and using industrial management paradigms. Others and I have made that case before. ..."
"... Put yourself in 1980, though. Think about the coordination you can organize. Think about sending components to a low labor cost jurisdiction for assembly. Perhaps paying a tariff and transportation to get there, then a tariff and transportation to get back. The labor is essentially free, but the other is real money. Ten years later the tariffs start to disappear. Containerization continues to drive down transport per unit. ..."
"... Sure, by now the best manufacturers are often foreign. They did not get there without our help. ..."
"... In the case of subsidiaries, this requires international legal frameworks allowing US companies to operate foreign subsidiaries, or buying foreign companies, with low enough overheads ("compliance" etc.) to make distributing work worthwhile. ..."
"... The general sentiment seems to be that people in "low cost geographies" are of lesser quality at least as concerns the subject matter. This is not my experience. What used to lack (as of today I would doubt even that) is years of experience, as the offshoring industry branches hadn't existed in the remote locations, so all you could hire was freshers; or a lag in access to bleeding edge Western technology and research literature. This is no longer the case, and hasn't been the case for about a decade. ..."
"... That IN THEORY, the exchange rate and other prices should adjust to any change in tax or regulatory regime to at least partly offset it. A lot of the practical problems arise, because price adjustments do not actually seem to happen to the extent predicted, and large financial imbalances are seen to become secular features of the economic landscape. ..."
"Revoking Trade Deals Will Not Help American Middle Classes."
Brad lives in a world with jump discontinuities in the distribution of expected returns from
labor arbitrage. That changing the cost of doing a deal will not reduce or unwind deals because
the gains from trade individually exceed any costs that could be imposed. So he can say, elsewhere,
the jobs ain't coming back, full stop.
"If the United States had imposed barriers to the construction of intercontinental value chains
would the semi-skilled and skilled manufacturing workers of the U.S. be better off?"
Brad does not find any relation between "imposing barriers" and "removing subsidy". Or in establishing
the older trade deals, between "removing barriers" and "subsidizing foreign labor". Where the
foreign labor operated in a low environmental protection environment, a low labor protection environment,
and probably others, it seems enabling US firms to invest in foreign operations to reap the savings
of less protection should be seen as subsidy.
US companies were always able to offshore work. Before commodity internet, telecom, and
international transport (OK in good part enabled by international trade/etc. deals), that was
much more costly.
IMO, offshoring has largely been an automation and IT story.
Likewise domestic/national level business consolidation.
IT has made it possible to effectively manage larger business/institutional aggregate than
before on an industrial scale and using industrial management paradigms. Others and I have made
that case before.
This is not a new insight, but probably still not an obvious one.
Put yourself in 1980, though. Think about the coordination you can organize. Think about sending
components to a low labor cost jurisdiction for assembly. Perhaps paying a tariff and transportation
to get there, then a tariff and transportation to get back. The labor is essentially free, but
the other is real money. Ten years later the tariffs start to disappear. Containerization continues
to drive down transport per unit.
Point one is that Brad assumes there is no one doing this now who is near break-even and would
go upside down with any change in tariff regime, so there is no one to relocate to the USA.
Point two is that we import environmental degradation and below market labor when we allow/encourage
these to be part of the ROI calculation through tariff policy.
Sure, by now the best manufacturers are often foreign. They did not get there without our help.
Well, one can argue that environmental improvements credited to regulation were in part exporting
environmental degradation, simply by moving polluting production facilities "over there".
E.g. I have seen it in my own work and with many others: companies can farm out any work to foreign
subsidiaries or contractors they don't want to keep stateside for some reason. In the case of
subsidiaries, this requires international legal frameworks allowing US companies to operate foreign
subsidiaries, or buying foreign companies, with low enough overheads ("compliance" etc.) to make
distributing work worthwhile.
Considering the case of US vs. Asia - depending on where you are in the US, Asia/PAC (India/Far
East/Pacific) business hours are off by about a half day because of time zone effects. To a lesser
but similar degree this applies to Europe and the Middle East.
The general sentiment seems to be that people in "low cost geographies" are of lesser quality
at least as concerns the subject matter. This is not my experience. What used to lack (as of today
I would doubt even that) is years of experience, as the offshoring industry branches hadn't existed
in the remote locations, so all you could hire was freshers; or a lag in access to bleeding edge
Western technology and research literature. This is no longer the case, and hasn't been the case
for about a decade.
Then there is the aspect that people in "some" geographies are more habituated to top-down
management styles, talking back less, etc. which may be an advantage or liability depending on
what the business requires of them.
I think one thing that is forgotten almost always in such discussions is that the arguments for
or against trade start with barter not so much with monetary exchange.
That IN THEORY, the exchange
rate and other prices should adjust to any change in tax or regulatory regime to at least partly
offset it. A lot of the practical problems arise, because price adjustments do not actually seem
to happen to the extent predicted, and large financial imbalances are seen to become secular features
of the economic landscape.
This is why I'm inclined to say that trade barriers are a bit of red
herring, the really big issues are financial (including the need for finding ways to repair damaged
middle class balance sheets). We need to stop seeing redistribution as a dirty word. It is what
democratic governments worth the name should be doing.
Paid Outside agitators coordinating NATO seaport strikes. See, men can
get together and march in the street around the world at the same time for a
cause.
Many thanks Paul for putting these things together. Encouraging and
important for a bunch of reasons at once.
1. Even the most zealous Friedmanite (M. or T., does it matter?) or
Richard Florida-type cheerleader for the 'creative class' (deceased)
would have a hard time passing global logistics off as a 'dinosaur'
industry.
With the disclaimer that most of what I'm about to recommend comes
from friends/comrades or publications I'm somehow entangled with, there's
serious thinking about the latent
global
power of logistics
workers on the German 'Wildcat' site - [http://wildcat-www.de/en/wildcat/100/e_w100_koper.html]
for a recent example from a fair-sized English and huge German-language
archive - and years' worth of great writing about much the same thing by
Brian Ashton, a 1995-97 Liverpool dock strike organizer and one of the
first people to describe coherently the
industrial
uses of
what's now sold as 'the internet of things'. See eg. [http://www.metamute.org/editorial/articles/liverpools-docks-dust-and-dirt]
(with images by David Jacques), but if you're interested it's worth
searching that site and Libcom.org - just to start with - for more.
And 2.: because right now it can't be repeated often enough that
face-to-face community experience can be a powerful source of class
solidarity but
it's not the only one
. Cultural sameness is
not
the only possible basis for collective action for shared
interests. It can happen in a meaningful way even over long distances and
long periods, as shown by international support for the Liverpool Dockers
of 95-7 (and the California port truck drivers of 2012? Please correct
the latter if misremebered).
Admittedly this a sort of a priori principle for me, but not just
because it sounds like something it would be nice to believe. No, it's
because the 'choice' between globally co-ordinated hyperexploitation and
perpetual petty warfare* between internally close-knit groups (with no
way out of those groups for individuals or sub-collectives, thus:
conscript warfare) is a recipe for general despair.
[*'Warfare' here applies literally in some cases and figuratively in
others. But even when it stops short of physical violence it's
competition
, which puts it well on the way to global exploitation
anyway. Who knows why it's not considered obvious that EU-type
transnational management institutions and the National Preference
revivalists 'opposed' to them
share
the same obsession with
national
Competitiveness
. (And sub- and supra-national
Competitiveness too, but it amounts to the same thing because each arena
of economic bloodsports is supposed to toughen the gladiators (upscale
slaves, remember) for the next one up.
Peer-to-peer prizefighting is officially healthy for everyone, because
even what
does
kill me makes "my" brand/parent
corporation/city/country/supra-national trading bloc stronger. And one
day glorious victory over Emerging (capitalist) Planets will kill the
Zero that screams in the Sum.)]
An economy - just like an Army - marches on its stomach. Supply chains
for the US economy are long - reaching to distant countries including
many countries that aren't our best of friends - and shallow - often
depending on few to as few as a single source for many products and key
components. Just-in-time deliveries support local inventories trimmed to
within a few days of demand. The US economy has a great exposed
underbelly.
"... "Precarity" has become a popular way to refer to economic and labor conditions that force people-and particularly low-income service workers-into uncertainty. Temporary labor and flexwork offer examples. ..."
"... Such conditions are not new. As union-supported blue-collar labor declined in the 20th century, the service economy took over its mantle absent its benefits. But the information economy further accelerated precarity. ..."
"... ...Facebook and Google, so the saying goes, make their users into their products-the real customer is the advertiser or data speculator preying on the information generated by the companies' free services. ..."
"... Consider phone answering services. Its simple speech recognition, which was once at the forefront of artificial intelligence, has made them ubiquityous. Yet Dante would need a new circle for a person who said "I just heard you say 5...3...7...is this correct?" ..."
"... Some of these adaptations subtract from our quality of life, as the article nicely describes. Some add to it, e.g we no longer spend time at the mall arranging when and where to meet if we get separated. Some are interesting and hard to evaluate, e.g. Chessplayers' relation to the game has changed radically since computers became good at it. ..."
"... And there is one I find insidious: the homogeneization of human activity and even thought. The information we ALL get on a subject will be what sorts to the top among google answers; the rest might as well not exist, much like newspaper articles buried in a back page. ..."
"... And on the economic front, the same homogeneization, with giant multinationals and crossmarketing deals. You'll be in a country with great food, like Turkey, get into your rented Toyota, say "I want dinner", and end up at a Domino's because they have a deal with Toyota. ..."
On the Crooked Timber piece: Quiggin makes a very astute observation about 'propertarians' and
Divine Providence in his concluding paragraphs. If one takes it as a matter of faith (religious
or secular) that human activity inherently leads to good outcomes that'll be a huge influence
on how you engage with the world. It blows away humility and restraint. It fosters a sense of
entitlement.
Yep. All roads lead to scapegoating. The anti-social capabilities of base desires and greed are
often paled in comparison to those of detached indifference supported by abstract high-mindedness.
For example, both sides can blame the robots for the loss of decent blue collar jobs.
Not sure that there are "both sides" any more in elite circles. There are at least two types though.
There is very little presence among elites on the progressive side.
"...When spun on its ungeared mechanism, an analogous, glorious measure of towel appears directly
and immediately, as if sent from heaven..."
[This was highly relevant to today's lead article "The Jobs Americans Do:"]
... "Precarity" has become a popular way to refer to economic and labor conditions that
force people-and particularly low-income service workers-into uncertainty. Temporary labor and
flexwork offer examples.
That includes hourly service work in which schedules are adjusted ad-hoc and just-in-time,
so that workers don't know when or how often they might be working. For low-wage food service
and retail workers, for instance, that uncertainty makes budgeting and time-management difficult.
Arranging for transit and childcare is difficult, and even more costly, for people who don't know
when-or if-they'll be working.
Such conditions are not new. As union-supported blue-collar labor declined in the 20th
century, the service economy took over its mantle absent its benefits. But the information economy
further accelerated precarity. For one part, it consolidated existing businesses and made
efficiency its primary concern. For another, economic downturns like the 2008 global recession
facilitated austerity measures both deliberate and accidental. Immaterial labor also rose-everything
from the unpaid, unseen work of women in and out of the workplace, to creative work done on-spec
or for exposure, to the invisible work everyone does to construct the data infrastructure that
technology companies like Google and Facebook sell to advertisers...
[This was very insightful into its own topic of the separation of technology "from serving
human users to pushing them out of the way so that the technologized world can service its own
ends," but I would rather classify that as serving owners of proprietary technology rights.]
...Facebook and Google, so the saying goes, make their users into their products-the real customer
is the advertiser or data speculator preying on the information generated by the companies' free
services. But things are bound to get even weirder than that. When automobiles drive themselves,
for example, their human passengers will not become masters of a new form of urban freedom, but
rather a fuel to drive the expansion of connected cities, in order to spread further the gospel
of computerized automation.
If artificial intelligence ends up running the news, it will not do
so in order to improve citizen's access to information necessary to make choices in a democracy,
but to further cement the supremacy of machine automation over human editorial in establishing
what is relevant...
[THANKS! It was an exceptionally good article in places despite that it wandered a bit off
into the ozone at times.] ...
It hits on one of the reasons why I am less skeptical than Darryl that AI will succeed, an
soon, in all kinds of fields: it may remain stupid in some ways, but we will adapt to it.
Consider phone answering services. Its simple speech recognition, which was once at the forefront
of artificial intelligence, has made them ubiquityous. Yet Dante would need a new circle for a
person who said "I just heard you say 5...3...7...is this correct?"
Some of these adaptations subtract from our quality of life, as the article nicely describes.
Some add to it, e.g we no longer spend time at the mall arranging when and where to meet if we
get separated. Some are interesting and hard to evaluate, e.g. Chessplayers' relation to the game
has changed radically since computers became good at it.
And there is one I find insidious: the homogeneization of human activity and even thought.
The information we ALL get on a subject will be what sorts to the top among google answers; the
rest might as well not exist, much like newspaper articles buried in a back page.
On the political front, Winston will not be necessary, nobody will click through to the old
information, we will all just know that we were always at war with Eurasia.
And on the economic front, the same homogeneization, with giant multinationals and crossmarketing
deals. You'll be in a country with great food, like Turkey, get into your rented Toyota, say "I
want dinner", and end up at a Domino's because they have a deal with Toyota.
There was probably more than one movie about this topic - people not happy with their "peaceful"
but bland, boring, and intellectually stifling environment.
Not too far from Huxley's "Brave New World" actually.
The essence of "deep state" meme is that "color revolution" (
nicknamed "purple revolution") is launched against Trump by a
coalition of Democratic Party operatives, a faction of Wall
Street (Globalist Billionaires), a faction of MIC, and
powerful factions of three letter agencies (and first of all
CIA).
It's no coincidence that JFK wished he could splinter the
CIA 'Into A Thousand Pieces And Scatter It Into The Winds'.
And paid the ultimate price for this wish. The CIA coup like
JFS assassination that involves removal of Trump from power
is what the "deep state meme" currently implies.
The Deep State Conducts a Purple Revolution Against the Trump
Administration
State of the Nation
There is now a full-scale clandestine revolutionary war
being waged against the Trump Administration. The CIA
usually attempts a soft coup first at the direction of its
masters in Deep State. When that's not successful in
effectuating a regime change, they know the territory has
been sufficiently softened up for the hot phase of the
revolution.
In these United States of America, that revolution is
known as the ongoing but rapidly intensifying Purple
Revolution. This seditious revolution began the very day that
President Trump won the election on November 8, 2016, if not
before.
KEY POINTS:
• Deep State will not permit President Trump to govern as
POTUS.
• Deep State uses the CIA and the Mainstream Media
(MSM) to run interference at every turn against the Trump
Administration
• Deep State will continue to prosecute the revolution
until Trump is removed from power
• Deep State will eventually attempt to oust the entire
Trump Administration
These preceding bullet points constitute the current NWO
globalist agenda being implemented throughout the USA in
direct opposition to the Trump Administration. In other
words, when Assistant to the President and White House Chief
Strategist Steve Bannon said that the Mainstream Media (MSM)
had morphed into the opposition party, he was speaking
literally.
"Steve Bannon: 'I Could Care Less' About Repairing
Relationship with 'Opposition Party' Media" - BREITBART
A Counter Declaration of War on the Mainstream Media
There you have it (see preceding link), the whole world is
now witnessing an all-out war between the MSM and a sitting
POTUS. This unparalleled conflict is not only being fought
between the Mainstream Media and the Trump Administration,
it's occurring throughout the entire body politic of the USA
and beyond.
The U.S. citizenry saw as never before the complete lack
of integrity exhibited by the MSM during the entire 2016
election cycle. Candidate Trump exposed the lying media and
avalanche of fake news with his every news conference and
campaign stop. In so doing, the whole world is now aware that
the MSM can never - EVER - be trusted again.
Because the MSM is the primary mouthpiece of Deep State, a
highly consequential decision was made by its concealed
leadership to remove Trump from power with great haste and
recklessness lest their Global Control Matrix experience an
unprecedented collapse. Deep State knows full well that it's
now in its death throes. And that such grave existential
threats must be faced before its entire superstructure (and
infrastructure) falls into it own footprint.
This 21st century "War of the Titans" has gotten so hot,
in fact, that there is now no turning back for either side.
IT WILL BE A FIGHT TO THE DEATH.
Because the Mainstream Media has been outed like never,
the most likely outcome is that it will simply be shut down.
The public domain is now replete with hard evidence proving
treason and sedition perpetrated over many decades by the
MSM. Once the American people have reviewed the relevant
proof of high treason and crimes against humanity, it will
only be a matter of MSM industrywide criminal prosecution.
Bear in mind that Deep State cannot function to any
reasonable degree without total ownership and efficient
functioning of the media. The CIA, as well as the other 16
US intelligence agencies, all require the media cover
staunchly provided by the MSM. So does the
Military-Industrial Complex, as does the much larger
Government-Corporate Complex. Therefore, when the MSM finally
crashes and burns, so will all of the other major entities
which comprise the Deep State.
"MAY DAY! MAY DAY! MAY DAY!"
With this critical understanding it ought to be quite
obvious that the next 120 days are pivotal for Deep State.
Every single day that the Trump Administration is able to
consolidate and increase its power, Deep State loses its
influence throughout the US government and the
world-at-large. Such a crucial attenuation of power will
serve as the death knell of the Deep State within the
American Republic.
Hence, there is now a great race against time for both
sides of this epic war. The agents of Deep State clearly hope
that a soft coup will be successful through a presidential
impeachment or by other means. The CIA recently executed
such a strategy to 'peacefully' remove Dilma Rousseff, the
36th President of Brazil.
Make no mistake about it, if a soft coup is not
successful, the agents of Deep State will commence the hot
phase of their Purple Revolution. Everything points to a
massive May Day stealth event. An unrivaled National Mall
rally in D.C. attended by the many misguided groups which
make up the Democratic Party is already in the works.
An enormous May Day protest could be used to manufacture a
context in which a Maidan type event takes place (remember
the violent uprising in Kiev, Ukraine). The Illuminati are
notorious for using dates and numerology by which to stage
their revolutions and civil wars over centuries (e.g. May Day
parades and terror events). Just as the engineered uprising
in Kiev was surreptitiously utilized to force Ukrainian
President Viktor Yanukovych into exile, a similar trigger
point could be fabricated by which the Bolshevik Left goes
really crazy and tries to chase Trump from the White House.
"... Pusey's contracts with drug-benefit managers at his Medicap Pharmacy in Olyphant, Pennsylvania, bar him from volunteering the fact that for many cheap, generic medicines, co-pays sometimes are more expensive than if patients simply pay out of pocket and bypass insurance. The extra money -- what the industry calls a clawback -- ends up with the benefit companies. Pusey tells customers only if they ask. ..."
"... "Some of them get fired up," he said. "Some of them get angry at the whole system. Some of them don't even believe that what we're telling them is accurate." ..."
"... Clawbacks, which can be as little as $2 a prescription or as much as $30, may boost profits by hundreds of millions for benefit managers and have prompted at least 16 lawsuits since October. The legal cases as well dozens of receipts obtained by Bloomberg and interviews with more than a dozen pharmacists and industry consultants show the growing importance of the clawbacks. ..."
"... The cases arrive at a critical juncture in the quarter-century debate over how to make health care more affordable in America. President Donald Trump is promising to lower drug costs, saying the government should get better prices and the pharmaceutical industry is "getting away with murder." The Pharmaceutical Care Management Association, a benefits-manager trade group, says it expects greater scrutiny over its role in the price of medicine and wants to make its case "vocally and effectively." ..."
"... Suits have been filed against insurers UnitedHealth Group Inc., which owns manager OptumRx; Cigna Corp., which contracts with that manager; and Humana Inc., which runs its own. Among the accusations are defrauding patients through racketeering, breach of contract and violating insurance laws. ..."
"... Benefit managers are obscure but influential middlemen. They process prescriptions for insurers and large employers that back their own plans, determine which drugs are covered and negotiate with manufacturers on one end and pharmacies on the other. They have said their work keeps prices low, in part by pitting rival drugmakers against one other to get better deals. ..."
"... The clawbacks work like this: A patient goes to a pharmacy and pays a co-pay amount -- perhaps $10 -- agreed to by the pharmacy benefits manager, or PBM, and the insurers who hire it. The pharmacist gets reimbursed for the price of the drug, say $2, and possibly a small profit. Then the benefits manager "claws back" the remainder. Most patients never realize there's a cheaper cash price. ..."
"You're Overpaying for Drugs and Your Pharmacist Can't Tell You"
by Jared S Hopkins...February 24, 2017...9:52 AM EST
> Gag clauses stop pharmacists from pointing out a cheaper way
> Cigna, UnitedHealth and Humana face at least 16 lawsuits
"Eric Pusey has to bite his tongue when customers at his pharmacy cough up co-payments far higher than the cost of their low-cost
generic drugs, thinking their insurance is getting them a good deal.
Pusey's contracts with drug-benefit managers at his Medicap Pharmacy in Olyphant, Pennsylvania, bar him from volunteering the
fact that for many cheap, generic medicines, co-pays sometimes are more expensive than if patients simply pay out of pocket and
bypass insurance. The extra money -- what the industry calls a clawback -- ends up with the benefit companies. Pusey tells customers
only if they ask.
"Some of them get fired up," he said. "Some of them get angry at the whole system. Some of them don't even believe that what
we're telling them is accurate."
Graphic
Clawbacks, which can be as little as $2 a prescription or as much as $30, may boost profits by hundreds of millions for benefit
managers and have prompted at least 16 lawsuits since October. The legal cases as well dozens of receipts obtained by Bloomberg
and interviews with more than a dozen pharmacists and industry consultants show the growing importance of the clawbacks.
"It's like crack cocaine," said Susan Hayes, a consultant with Pharmacy Outcomes Specialists in Lake Zurich, Illinois. "They
just can't get enough."
The cases arrive at a critical juncture in the quarter-century debate over how to make health care more affordable in America.
President Donald Trump is promising to lower drug costs, saying the government should get better prices and the pharmaceutical
industry is "getting away with murder." The Pharmaceutical Care Management Association, a benefits-manager trade group, says it
expects greater scrutiny over its role in the price of medicine and wants to make its case "vocally and effectively."
Racketeering Accusations
Suits have been filed against insurers UnitedHealth Group Inc., which owns manager OptumRx; Cigna Corp., which contracts with
that manager; and Humana Inc., which runs its own. Among the accusations are defrauding patients through racketeering, breach
of contract and violating insurance laws.
"Pharmacies should always charge our members the lowest amount outlined under their plan when filling prescriptions," UnitedHealthcare
spokesman Matthew Wiggin said in a statement. "We believe these lawsuits are without merit and will vigorously defend ourselves."
Mark Mathis, a Humana spokesman, declined to comment. Matt Asensio, a Cigna spokesman, said the company doesn't comment on
litigation.
"Patients should not have to pay more than a network drugstore's submitted charges to the health plan," Charles Cote, a spokesman
for the Pharmaceutical Care Management Association, said in a statement.
Read more: Escalating U.S. drug prices -- a QuickTake explainer
Benefit managers are obscure but influential middlemen. They process prescriptions for insurers and large employers that back
their own plans, determine which drugs are covered and negotiate with manufacturers on one end and pharmacies on the other. They
have said their work keeps prices low, in part by pitting rival drugmakers against one other to get better deals.
The clawbacks work like this: A patient goes to a pharmacy and pays a co-pay amount -- perhaps $10 -- agreed to by the pharmacy
benefits manager, or PBM, and the insurers who hire it. The pharmacist gets reimbursed for the price of the drug, say $2, and
possibly a small profit. Then the benefits manager "claws back" the remainder. Most patients never realize there's a cheaper cash
price.
"There's this whole industry that most people don't know about," said Connecticut lawyer Craig Raabe, who represents people
accusing the companies of defrauding them. "The customers see that they go in, they are paying a $10 co-pay for amoxicillin, having
no idea that the PBM and the pharmacy have agreed that the actual cost is less than a dollar, and they're still paying the $10
co-pay."
On Feb. 10, a customer at an Ohio pharmacy paid a $15 co-pay for 15 milligrams of generic stomach medicine pantoprazole that
the pharmacist bought for $2.05, according to receipts obtained by Bloomberg. The pharmacist was repaid $7.22, giving him a profit
of $5.17. The remaining $7.78 went back to the benefits manager.
Opaque Market
Clawbacks are possible because benefit managers take advantage of an opaque market, said Hayes, the Illinois consultant. Only
they know who pays what.
In interviews, some pharmacists estimate clawbacks happen in 10 percent of their transactions. A survey by the more than 22,000-member
National Community Pharmacists Association found 83 percent of 640 independent pharmacists had at least 10 a month.
"I've got three drugstores, so I see a lot of it," David Spence, a Houston pharmacist, said in an interview. "We look at it
as theft -- another way for the PBMs to steal."
Lawsuits began in October in multiple states, and some have since been consolidated. Most cite an investigation by New Orleans
television station Fox 8, which featured interviews with Louisiana pharmacists whose faces and voices were obscured.
Tight Restrictions
Many plans require pharmacies to collect payment when prescriptions are filled and prohibit them from waiving or reducing the
amount. They can't even tell their customers about the clawbacks, according to the suits. Contracts obtained by Bloomberg prohibit
pharmacists from publicly criticizing benefit managers or suggesting customers obtain the medication cheaper by paying out of
pocket.
Pharmacists who contract with OptumRx in 2017 could be terminated for "actions detrimental to the provider network," doing
anything that "disparages" it or trying to "steer" customers to other coverage or discounted plans, according to an agreement
obtained by Bloomberg.
"They're usually take-it-or-leave-it contracts," said Mel Brodsky, who just retired as chief executive officer of Pennsylvania's
Keystone Pharmacy Purchasing Alliance, which buys drugs on behalf of independent pharmacies.
OptumRx is among the three largest benefit managers that combine to process 80 percent of the prescriptions in the U.S. The
other two, Express Scripts Holding Co. and CVS Caremark, haven't been accused of clawbacks. CVS doesn't use them, it said in a
statement. Express Scripts is so opposed that it explains the practice on its website and promises customers will pay the lowest
price available.
Potential Death Blow
Pharmacies fear getting removed from reimbursement networks, a potential death blow in smaller communities. But some pharmacists
jump at opportunities to inform customers who question their co-pay amounts.
"Most don't understand," said Spence, who owns two pharmacies in Houston. "If their co-pay is high, then they care."
States are responding. Last year, Louisiana began allowing pharmacists to tell customers how to get the cheapest price for
drugs, trumping contract gag clauses. In 2015, Arkansas prohibited benefit managers and pharmacies from charging customers more
than the pharmacy will be paid.
"The consumers don't know what's going on," said Steve Nelson, a pharmacist in Okeechobee, Florida. "We try to educate them
with regards to what goes into a prescription, OK? You've got to kind of tip-toe around things."
Yes, profits are a form of income, but at that point they
indirectly touch wealth accumulation and sharing, and before
that they fuel wages for managers of capital and have
historically been a measure that influence the price of
stock, an indirect touch on wealth accumulation. We know what
has happened to basic wages/salaries, no reason to expect
they would get to share in the gains of further tax cuts, so
let us face it, as you note, huge drops in the tax rate on
profits will directly benefit wealth and high income people
(though not because they would have earned it other than by
lobbying).
So ok, harmonize rates with OECD, but offset
revenue losses on the personal income tax side so at least
some of the upward redistribution is in that proscribed tax
base (which does not tax wealth, per the Pollack decision of
the Court).
Know you know this, hope other readers get this too.
In 1913 the personal exemption was $3K for singles and $4K
for married couples and the tax rate was just 1% for the
first $20K of income. The highest bracket was $500K with a 7%
income tax rate. We started off on the correct foot anyway.
Under the 1913 law, income up to $20,000 was taxed at 1% with
a $3,000 personal exemption. The average wage was only
$1,296, which means only high earners were taxed at all. That
is a big difference from today.
True. "We started off on the correct foot" was in no way
meant to imply that we were on our feet at all today. Back
then what you and I make today in relative terms would have
put us in the 1% tax bracket and people making $20 million or
more today would have been taxed in the top bracket which was
taxed at a rate seven times higher than ours.
"U.S. oil exporters set a new record last week: shipments leaving the country averaged 1.2
million barrels of crude per day, roughly double the levels seen at the end of last year.
Analysts told Bloomberg that the rising American exports are driven in large part by falling
domestic prices. West Texas Intermediate futures (the domestic benchmark) are trading below the
international Brent standard by $2 per barrel or more, and are now cheaper than some Middle Eastern
grades of lesser quality. This makes American crude more attractive to Asian buyers.
There is also an incentive for traders to sell their oil abroad: U.S. storage is costly. If
the price of crude is not expected to rise, brokers have no incentive to hang on to their supply
and pay rent on a tank to put it in."...
You are just regular incompetent chichenhawk. And it shows. Try to read something about US oil
industry before positing. It is actually a very fascinating topic. That's where the battle for
survival of neoliberalism in the USA (with its rampant militarism and impoverishment of lower
50% of population) is now fought.
If you list also domestic consumption, you will understand that you are completely misunderstanding
and misrepresenting the situation. The USA is a huge oil importer (Net Imports: 6.075 Mbbl; see
ilsm post), not an exporter. You can consider it to be exported only after drinking something
really strong.
It refines and re-export refined products and also export condensate and shale light oil that
is used for dilution of heavy oils in Canada and Latin America. That's it.
US shale can't be profitable below, say, $65 per barrel (so called "break-even" price for well
started in 2009-2016), and if interest on already existing loans (all shale industry is deeply
in debt; ) and minimum profitability (2.5%) is factored in, probably $77.
That's why production is declining and will decline further is prices stay low because there
is only fixed amount of "sweet spots" which can produce oil profitably at lower prices. In 2017
they are mostly gone, so what's left is not so attractive at the current prices. And this is an
understatement.
The same is true to Canadian sands. Plans for expansion are now revised down and investments
postponed.
So in order to sustain the US shale industry prices need to grow at least over $65 this year
And those war-crazy militarists from Obama administration essentially continued Bush II policies
and wasted money in Middle East, Afghanistan and Ukraine, instead of facilitating conversion of
passenger cards to hybrids (and electrical for short commutes).
The US as a country waisted its time and now is completely unprepared for down of oil age.
The net result of Obama policies is that SUVs became that most popular type of passenger cars
in the USA. That can be called Iran revenge on the USA.
The conflict between Donald Trump and the US Deep State can be explained that deep state can't
allow Trump détente with Russia and stopping wars on neoliberal expansion at Middle East. That's
why they torpedoed General Flynn. It is not about Flynn, it was about Trump. To show him who is
the boss and warn "You can be fired".
Due to "overconsumption" of oil inherent in neoliberalism with its crazy goods flows that might
cross the ocean several times before getting to customer, US neoliberal empire (and neoliberalism
as social system) can well go off the cliff when cheap oil is gone.
The only question is when it happens and estimates vary from 10 to 50 years.
So in the best case neoliberalism might be able to outlive Bolshevism which lasted 74 years
(1917-1991) by only something like 15 years.
The DNC head is the chief fundraiser for the party.
DNC raises and distributes money
The DNC needs to be able to collect money from donors across
the spectrum
DNC does not control policy or issues.
Sanders supporters
who think this is about policy never bothered to learn about
how the party they tried to take over works.
"DNC does not control policy or issues. Sanders supporters
who think this is about policy never bothered to learn about
how the party they tried to take over works."
But who
controls the money controls a lot more. We are on the 2nd
round and it will be close. I'm for Ellison for reasons Max
Sawicky's excellent new blog articulated. If Perez pulls this
off - he has a lot of fence mending to do.
Oh Please.
The Local Sanders supporters are already engaged locally.
The whiners will complain about Ellison if he should win
The first time Ellison takes money from big donors they will
disown him.
They have no idea what it takes to fund a party operation.
Breitbart and the GOP are cheering the whiners on
The policy debates are won at groups that will form the
ultimate coalition for candidate support. Say your interest
is public schools. The group supporting your local school is
horrified that vouchers are taking away the money. The group
builds support for the anti voucher position. A union group
wants more job training opportunities. An energy group wants
solar metering. These groups have their own agenda separate
from the DNC and RNC and they bring together groups of like
minded individuals who socialize in addition to their
advocacy. When the election comes, they are positioned to
work for candidates that agree with their position. The
candidate can get some of them to volunteer for the campaign,
but their is a need for voter lists, support for
registration, etc.
The issue for Sanders supporters is they
rallied around a messianic leader without much local group
persistence. If those supporters want to help in the next
election, the would be advised to build advocacy support
within their social groups.
Max is not correct
In my phone banking last election, the most numerous
complaint I received was:
"Everything is going to the black and the gays".
The Catholics and Christian Right voted for antiabortion
SCOTUS justices
Our state, IN is trying to make it impossible for minors to
get abortions and doing their best to create conditions for a
black market
The people we need to persuade don't care about the DNC
For the most part, local activists don't care either as long
as whoever wins will successfully raise a lot of money and
provide the training and tools we need
You articulate your case indeed. And your list for the policy
agenda is well noted. I would love to see you and Max Sawicky
engage in a debate of these things. Like you - he is never
shy of stating his views.
In the olden says, his blog Max Speaks You Listen was
often cited by many left of center economists. He had to go
silent as he worked within the government but now he is free
of that restriction. I don't always agree with him but I do
admire his style.
No, Robots Aren't Killing the American Dream
By THE EDITORIAL BOARD
FEB. 20, 2017
Defenders of globalization are on solid ground when they
criticize President Trump's threats of punitive tariffs and
border walls. The economy can't flourish without trade and
immigrants.
But many of those defenders have their own dubious
explanation for the economic disruption that helped to fuel
the rise of Mr. Trump.
At a recent global forum in Dubai, Christine Lagarde, head
of the International Monetary Fund, said some of the economic
pain ascribed to globalization was instead due to the rise of
robots taking jobs. In his farewell address in January,
President Barack Obama warned that "the next wave of economic
dislocations won't come from overseas. It will come from the
relentless pace of automation that makes a lot of good
middle-class jobs obsolete."
Blaming robots, though, while not as dangerous as
protectionism and xenophobia, is also a distraction from real
problems and real solutions.
The rise of modern robots is the latest chapter in a
centuries-old story of technology replacing people.
Automation is the hero of the story in good times and the
villain in bad. Since today's middle class is in the midst of
a prolonged period of wage stagnation, it is especially
vulnerable to blame-the-robot rhetoric.
And yet, the data indicate that today's fear of robots is
outpacing the actual advance of robots. If automation were
rapidly accelerating, labor productivity and capital
investment would also be surging as fewer workers and more
technology did the work. But labor productivity and capital
investment have actually decelerated in the 2000s.
While breakthroughs could come at any time, the problem
with automation isn't robots; it's politicians, who have
failed for decades to support policies that let workers share
the wealth from technology-led growth.
The response in previous eras was quite different.
When automation on the farm resulted in the mass migration
of Americans from rural to urban areas in the early decades
of the 20th century, agricultural states led the way in
instituting universal public high school education to prepare
for the future. At the dawn of the modern technological age
at the end of World War II, the G.I. Bill turned a generation
of veterans into college graduates.
When productivity led to vast profits in America's auto
industry, unions ensured that pay rose accordingly.
Corporate efforts to keep profits high by keeping pay low
were countered by a robust federal minimum wage and
time-and-a-half for overtime.
Fair taxation of corporations and the wealthy ensured the
public a fair share of profits from companies enriched by
government investments in science and technology.
Productivity and pay rose in tandem for decades after
World War II, until labor and wage protections began to be
eroded. Public education has been given short shrift, unions
have been weakened, tax overhauls have benefited the rich and
basic labor standards have not been updated.
As a result, gains from improving technology have been
concentrated at the top, damaging the middle class, while
politicians blame immigrants and robots for the misery that
is due to their own failures. Eroded policies need to be
revived, and new ones enacted.
A curb on stock buybacks would help to ensure that
executives could not enrich themselves as wages lagged.
Tax reform that increases revenue from corporations and
the wealthy could help pay for retraining and education to
protect and prepare the work force for foreseeable
technological advancements.
Legislation to foster child care, elder care and fair
scheduling would help employees keep up with changes in the
economy, rather than losing ground.
Economic history shows that automation not only
substitutes for human labor, it complements it. The
disappearance of some jobs and industries gives rise to
others. Nontechnology industries, from restaurants to
personal fitness, benefit from the consumer demand that
results from rising incomes in a growing economy. But only
robust public policy can ensure that the benefits of growth
are broadly shared.
If reforms are not enacted - as is likely with President
Trump and congressional Republicans in charge - Americans
should blame policy makers, not robots.
Robots may not be killing jobs but they drastically alter the
types and location of jobs that are created. High pay
unskilled jobs are always the first to be eliminated by
technology. Low skill high pay jobs are rare and heading to
extinction. Low skill low pay jobs are the norm. It sucks to
lose a low skill job with high pay but anyone who expected
that to continue while continually voting against unions was
foolish and a victim of their own poor planning, failure to
acquire skills and failure to support unions. It is in their
self interest to support safety net proposal that do provide
good pay for quality service. The enemy is not trade. The
enemy is failure to invest in the future.
"Many working-
and middle-class Americans believe that free-trade agreements
are why their incomes have stagnated over the past two
decades. So Trump intends to provide them with "protection"
by putting protectionists in charge.
But Trump and his triumvirate have misdiagnosed the problem.
While globalization is an important factor in the hollowing
out of the middle class, so, too, is automation
Trump and his team are missing a simple point:
twenty-first-century globalization is knowledge-led, not
trade-led. Radically reduced communication costs have enabled
US firms to move production to lower-wage countries.
Meanwhile, to keep their production processes synced, firms
have also offshored much of their technical, marketing, and
managerial knowhow. This "knowledge offshoring" is what has
really changed the game for American workers.
The information revolution changed the world in ways that
tariffs cannot reverse. With US workers already competing
against robots at home, and against low-wage workers abroad,
disrupting imports will just create more jobs for robots.
Trump should be protecting individual workers, not individual
jobs. The processes of twenty-first-century globalization are
too sudden, unpredictable, and uncontrollable to rely on
static measures like tariffs. Instead, the US needs to
restore its social contract so that its workers have a fair
shot at sharing in the gains generated by global openness and
automation. Globalization and technological innovation are
not painless processes, so there will always be a need for
retraining initiatives, lifelong education, mobility and
income-support programs, and regional transfers.
By pursuing such policies, the Trump administration would
stand a much better chance of making America "great again"
for the working and middle classes. Globalization has always
created more opportunities for the most competitive workers,
and more insecurity for others. This is why a strong social
contract was established during the post-war period of
liberalization in the West. In the 1960s and 1970s
institutions such as unions expanded, and governments made
new commitments to affordable education, social security, and
progressive taxation. These all helped members of the middle
class seize new opportunities as they emerged.
Over the last two decades, this situation has changed
dramatically: globalization has continued, but the social
contract has been torn up. Trump's top priority should be to
stitch it back together; but his trade advisers do not
understand this."
anne at Economist's View has retrieved a FRED graph that
perfectly illustrates the divergence, since the mid-1990s of
net worth from GDP:
[graph]
The empty spaces between the red line and the blue line
that open up after around 1995 is what John Kenneth Galbraith
called "the bezzle" -- summarized by John Kay as "that
increment to wealth that occurs during the magic interval
when a confidence trickster knows he has the money he has
appropriated but the victim does not yet understand that he
has lost it."
In Chapter of The Great Crash, 1929, Galbraith wrote:
"In many ways the effect of the crash on embezzlement was
more significant than on suicide. To the economist
embezzlement is the most interesting of crimes. Alone among
the various forms of larceny it has a time parameter. Weeks,
months or years may elapse between the commission of the
crime and its discovery. (This is a period, incidentally,
when the embezzler has his gain and the man who has been
embezzled, oddly enough, feels no loss. There is a net
increase in psychic wealth.) At any given time there exists
an inventory of undiscovered embezzlement in – or more
precisely not in – the country's business and banks. This
inventory – it should perhaps be called the bezzle – amounts
at any moment to many millions of dollars. It also varies in
size with the business cycle. In good times people are
relaxed, trusting, and money is plentiful. But even though
money is plentiful, there are always many people who need
more. Under these circumstances the rate of embezzlement
grows, the rate of discovery falls off, and the bezzle
increases rapidly. In depression all this is reversed. Money
is watched with a narrow, suspicious eye. The man who handles
it is assumed to be dishonest until he proves himself
otherwise. Audits are penetrating and meticulous. Commercial
morality is enormously improved. The bezzle shrinks."
In the present case, the bezzle has resulted from an
economic policy two step: tax cuts and Greenspan puts: cuts
and puts.
Why Germany Has It So Good -- and Why America Is Going Down
the Drain
Germans have six weeks of federally mandated vacation,
free university tuition, and nursing care. Why the US pales
in comparison.
By Terrence McNally / AlterNet October 13, 2010
ECONOMY
Why Germany Has It So Good -- and Why America Is Going Down
the Drain
Germans have six weeks of federally mandated vacation, free
university tuition, and nursing care. Why the US pales in
comparison.
By Terrence McNally / AlterNet October 13, 2010
1.4K31
Print
207 COMMENTS
While the bad news of the Euro crisis makes headlines in the
US, we hear next to nothing about a quiet revolution in
Europe. The European Union, 27 member nations with a half
billion people, has become the largest, wealthiest trading
bloc in the world, producing nearly a third of the world's
economy -- nearly as large as the US and China combined.
Europe has more Fortune 500 companies than either the US,
China or Japan.
European nations spend far less than the United States for
universal healthcare rated by the World Health Organization
as the best in the world, even as U.S. health care is ranked
37th. Europe leads in confronting global climate change with
renewable energy technologies, creating hundreds of thousands
of new jobs in the process. Europe is twice as energy
efficient as the US and their ecological "footprint" (the
amount of the earth's capacity that a population consumes) is
about half that of the United States for the same standard of
living.
Unemployment in the US is widespread and becoming chronic,
but when Americans have jobs, we work much longer hours than
our peers in Europe. Before the recession, Americans were
working 1,804 hours per year versus 1,436 hours for Germans
-- the equivalent of nine extra 40-hour weeks per year.
In his new book, Were You Born on the Wrong Continent?,
Thomas Geoghegan makes a strong case that European social
democracies -- particularly Germany -- have some lessons and
models that might make life a lot more livable. Germans have
six weeks of federally mandated vacation, free university
tuition, and nursing care. But you've heard the arguments for
years about how those wussy Europeans can't compete in a
global economy. You've heard that so many times, you might
believe it. But like so many things, the media repeats
endlessly, it's just not true.
According to Geoghegan, "Since 2003, it's not China but
Germany, that colossus of European socialism, that has either
led the world in export sales or at least been tied for
first. Even as we in the United States fall more deeply into
the clutches of our foreign creditors -- China foremost among
them -- Germany has somehow managed to create a high-wage,
unionized economy without shipping all its jobs abroad or
creating a massive trade deficit, or any trade deficit at
all. And even as the Germans outsell the United States, they
manage to take six weeks of vacation every year. They're
beating us with one hand tied behind their back."
Thomas Geoghegan, a graduate of Harvard and Harvard Law
School, is a labor lawyer with Despres, Schwartz and
Geoghegan in Chicago. He has been a staff writer and
contributing writer to The New Republic, and his work has
appeared in many other journals. Geoghagen ran unsuccessfully
in the Democratic Congressional primary to succeed Rahm
Emanuel, and is the author of six books including Whose Side
Are You on, The Secret Lives of Citizens, and, most
recently,Were You Born on the Wrong Continent?
While the US spends half the war money in the world over a
quarter the economic activity...... it fall further behind
the EU which at a third the economic activity spends a fifth
the worlds warring. Or 4% of GDP in the war trough versus
1.2%.
The conclusion from 'no mens rea' implies "simple
negligence", simple negligence only applies to GS 3's. The
managers and the experience are held to a higher standard.
If it was 'no mens rea' then she was neither qualified nor
experienced, she is no accountable.
Which may be okay for crooks in the swamp needing drained.
What she did with "bathroom email server" is worse then a
crime. It is a blunder. Which disqualifies Hillary (and her
close entourage) for any government position.
The level of incompetence and arrogance demonstrated is
just astounding. Actually it is not astounding. It is
incredible. I can't believe that a person with Yale law
degree can be so hopelessly stupid and arrogant.
Our research focuses on state legislative elections because
we can more easily isolate the effect of Citizens United
compared with other factors that influence election outcomes
at various levels (such as the popularity of the president).
Before 2010, 23 states had bans on corporations and union
funding of outside spending. As a result of the court's
ruling, these states had to change their campaign laws. We
can then compare the changes before and after Citizens United
in these 23 states with the same changes in the 27 states
whose laws did not change. The effect of the court's ruling
is then simply the differences between these two
before-and-after comparisons.
We find that Citizens United increased the GOP's average seat
share in the state legislature by five percentage points.
That is a large effect - large enough that, were it applied
to the past twelve Congresses, partisan control of the House
would have switched eight times. In line with a previous
study, we also find that the vote share of Republican
candidates increased three to four points, on average.
We also uncovered evidence that these results stem from the
influence of corporations and unions. In states where union
membership is relatively high and corporations relatively
weak, Citizens United did not have a discernible effect on
the partisan balance of the state legislature. But in states
with weak unions and strong corporations, the decision
appeared to increase Republican seat share by as much as 12
points.
The essence of "deep state" meme is that "color revolution" ( nicknamed "purple revolution") is
launched against Trump by a coalition of Democratic Party operatives, a faction of Wall Street
(Globalist Billionaires), a faction of MIC, and powerful factions of three letter agencies (and
first of all CIA).
It's no coincidence that JFK wished he could splinter the CIA 'Into A Thousand Pieces And Scatter
It Into The Winds'. And paid the ultimate price for this wish. The CIA coup like JFS assassination
that involves removal of Trump from power is what the "deep state meme" currently implies.
The Deep State Conducts a Purple Revolution Against the Trump Administration
State of the Nation
There is now a full-scale clandestine revolutionary war being waged against the Trump Administration.
The CIA usually attempts a soft coup first at the direction of its masters in Deep State. When
that's not successful in effectuating a regime change, they know the territory has been sufficiently
softened up for the hot phase of the revolution.
In these United States of America, that revolution is known as the ongoing but rapidly intensifying
Purple Revolution. This seditious revolution began the very day that President Trump won the election
on November 8, 2016, if not before.
KEY POINTS:
• Deep State will not permit President Trump to govern as POTUS.
• Deep State uses the CIA and the Mainstream Media (MSM) to run interference at every turn
against the Trump Administration
• Deep State will continue to prosecute the revolution until Trump is removed from power
• Deep State will eventually attempt to oust the entire Trump Administration
These preceding bullet points constitute the current NWO globalist agenda being implemented
throughout the USA in direct opposition to the Trump Administration. In other words, when Assistant
to the President and White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon said that the Mainstream Media
(MSM) had morphed into the opposition party, he was speaking literally.
"Steve Bannon: 'I Could Care Less' About Repairing Relationship with 'Opposition Party' Media"
- BREITBART
A Counter Declaration of War on the Mainstream Media
There you have it (see preceding link), the whole world is now witnessing an all-out war between
the MSM and a sitting POTUS. This unparalleled conflict is not only being fought between the Mainstream
Media and the Trump Administration, it's occurring throughout the entire body politic of the USA
and beyond.
The U.S. citizenry saw as never before the complete lack of integrity exhibited by the MSM
during the entire 2016 election cycle. Candidate Trump exposed the lying media and avalanche of
fake news with his every news conference and campaign stop. In so doing, the whole world is now
aware that the MSM can never - EVER - be trusted again.
Because the MSM is the primary mouthpiece of Deep State, a highly consequential decision was
made by its concealed leadership to remove Trump from power with great haste and recklessness
lest their Global Control Matrix experience an unprecedented collapse. Deep State knows full well
that it's now in its death throes. And that such grave existential threats must be faced before
its entire superstructure (and infrastructure) falls into it own footprint.
This 21st century "War of the Titans" has gotten so hot, in fact, that there is now no turning
back for either side. IT WILL BE A FIGHT TO THE DEATH.
Because the Mainstream Media has been outed like never, the most likely outcome is that it
will simply be shut down. The public domain is now replete with hard evidence proving treason
and sedition perpetrated over many decades by the MSM. Once the American people have reviewed
the relevant proof of high treason and crimes against humanity, it will only be a matter of MSM
industrywide criminal prosecution.
Bear in mind that Deep State cannot function to any reasonable degree without total ownership
and efficient functioning of the media. The CIA, as well as the other 16 US intelligence agencies,
all require the media cover staunchly provided by the MSM. So does the Military-Industrial Complex,
as does the much larger Government-Corporate Complex. Therefore, when the MSM finally crashes
and burns, so will all of the other major entities which comprise the Deep State.
"MAY DAY! MAY DAY! MAY DAY!"
With this critical understanding it ought to be quite obvious that the next 120 days are pivotal
for Deep State. Every single day that the Trump Administration is able to consolidate and increase
its power, Deep State loses its influence throughout the US government and the world-at-large.
Such a crucial attenuation of power will serve as the death knell of the Deep State within the
American Republic.
Hence, there is now a great race against time for both sides of this epic war. The agents
of Deep State clearly hope that a soft coup will be successful through a presidential impeachment
or by other means. The CIA recently executed such a strategy to 'peacefully' remove Dilma Rousseff,
the 36th President of Brazil.
Make no mistake about it, if a soft coup is not successful, the agents of Deep State will commence
the hot phase of their Purple Revolution. Everything points to a massive May Day stealth event.
An unrivaled National Mall rally in D.C. attended by the many misguided groups which make up the
Democratic Party is already in the works.
An enormous May Day protest could be used to manufacture a context in which a Maidan type event
takes place (remember the violent uprising in Kiev, Ukraine). The Illuminati are notorious for
using dates and numerology by which to stage their revolutions and civil wars over centuries (e.g.
May Day parades and terror events). Just as the engineered uprising in Kiev was surreptitiously
utilized to force Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych into exile, a similar trigger point could
be fabricated by which the Bolshevik Left goes really crazy and tries to chase Trump from the
White House.
This is not a dogma. This is a convenient pretext for suppressing wages, which is part of FED agenda
Notable quotes:
"... When I wrote my piece on NAIRU bashing, I mainly had in mind a few newspaper articles I had read which said we cannot reliably estimate it so why not junk the concept. ..."
"... It conjures up lots of bad associations. ..."
"... Last month, Matthew C Klein wrote an article for Financial Times' blog Alphaville arguing against the concept of NAIRU. ..."
"... Instead of their statutory mandate, these central bankers sought guidance from the so-called non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or NAIRU. Proponents of the NAIRU doctrine claim that some fixed level of unemployment exists that will yield a stable rate of inflation. If the actual unemployment rate surpasses this level, they say, the inflation rate will decline. If unemployment drops below this level, inflation will increase. Most economic research over the last two decades placed the NAIRU between 5.8 and 6.6 percent. ..."
Re: The NAIRU: a response to critics - mainly macro
[Simon is catching a lot of heat and is getting a little irritated.]
....................
The NAIRU: a response to critics
When I wrote my piece on NAIRU bashing, I mainly had in mind a few newspaper articles I had
read which said we cannot reliably estimate it so why not junk the concept. What I had forgotten,
however, is that for heterodox economists of a certain hue, the NAIRU is a trigger word, a bit
like methodology is for mainstream economists. It conjures up lots of bad associations.
As a result, I got comments on my blog that were almost unbelievable. The most colourful was
"NAIRU is the economic equivalent of "Muslim ban"". At least two wanted to hold me directly responsible
for any unemployment at the NAIRU. For example: "So according to you a fraction of the workforce
needs to be kept unemployed." Which is a bit like saying to doctors: "So according to you some
people have to be allowed to die as a result of cancer."
...........
[PostKeynesians fire back]:
........
Simon Wren-Lewis, NAIRU And TINA
Last month, Matthew C Klein wrote an article for Financial Times' blog Alphaville arguing against
the concept of NAIRU. Today, Simon Wren-Lewis published a reply to Klein on his blog defending
NAIRU. SWL's argument is essentially that there is no alternative (TINA):
[By coincidence I posted this comment by Dean Baker yesterday]:
NAIRU: Dangerous Dogma at the Fed
BY DEAN BAKER
The Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 established two goals to guide the
Federal Reserve's conduct of monetary policy: price stability and full employment, defined by
the Act as four percent unemployment. While the central bank has diligently pursued the first
goal, it has often given the second part of its mission short shrift. Indeed, past Fed policy
makers have publicly labeled four percent unemployment unobtainable for practical purposes.
..............
The experience of the last six years has unambiguously repudiated the NAIRU - at least insofar
as an economic theory may ever be disproved with evidence.
Die-hard adherents simply proclaim the NAIRU a moving target that has shifted. But none of
these advocates has explained convincingly why previous consensus estimates of the NAIRU went
so far awry.
The Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978 established two goals to guide the Federal
Reserve's conduct of monetary policy: price stability and full employment, defined by the Act
as four percent unemployment. While the central bank has diligently pursued the first goal, it
has often given the second part of its mission short shrift. Indeed, past Fed policymakers have
publicly labeled four percent unemployment unobtainable for practical purposes.
Instead of their statutory mandate, these central bankers sought guidance from the so-called
non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment, or NAIRU. Proponents of the NAIRU doctrine claim
that some fixed level of unemployment exists that will yield a stable rate of inflation. If the
actual unemployment rate surpasses this level, they say, the inflation rate will decline. If unemployment
drops below this level, inflation will increase. Most economic research over the last two decades
placed the NAIRU between 5.8 and 6.6 percent.
The operating differences between a legal target of four percent unemployment and a NAIRU target
matter tremendously for the economy and the public....
"Noble Energy has sanctioned the first phase of the Leviathan natural gas project offshore Israel,
with first gas targeted for the end of 2019.
Noble Energy is the operator of the Leviathan Field, which contains 22 trillion cubic feet (Tcf)
of gross recoverable natural gas resources.
The announcement was hailed by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who has played a key
role in negotiations with Noble. Netanyahu says the discovery of large reserves will bring energy
self-sufficiency and billions of dollars in tax revenues, reports The Times of Israel, but critics
say the deal gave excessively favorable terms to the government's corporate partners...
Production will be gathered at the field and delivered via two 73-mile flowlines to a fixed platform,
with full processing capabilities, located approximately six miles offshore."...
"U.S. oil exporters set a new record last week: shipments leaving the country averaged 1.2
million barrels of crude per day, roughly double the levels seen at the end of last year.
Analysts told Bloomberg that the rising American exports are driven in large part by falling
domestic prices. West Texas Intermediate futures (the domestic benchmark) are trading below
the international Brent standard by $2 per barrel or more, and are now cheaper than some Middle
Eastern grades of lesser quality. This makes American crude more attractive to Asian buyers.
There is also an incentive for traders to sell their oil abroad: U.S. storage is costly.
If the price of crude is not expected to rise, brokers have no incentive to hang on to their
supply and pay rent on a tank to put it in."...
You are just regular incompetent
chichenhawk. And it shows. Try to read something about US oil industry before positing. It
is actually a very fascinating topic. That's where the battle for survival of neoliberalism
in the USA (with its rampant militarism and impoverishment of lower 50% of population) is now
fought.
If you list also domestic consumption, you will understand that you are completely misunderstanding
and misrepresenting the situation. The USA is a huge oil importer (Net Imports: 6.075 Mbbl;
see ilsm post), not an exporter. You can consider it to be exported only after drinking something
really strong.
It refines and re-export refined products and also export condensate and shale light oil
that is used for dilution of heavy oils in Canada and Latin America. That's it.
US shale can't be profitable below, say, $65 per barrel (so called "break-even" price for
well started in 2009-2016), and if interest on already existing loans (all shale industry is
deeply in debt; ) and minimum profitability (2.5% is factored in, probably $77.
That's why production is declining and will decline further is prices stay low because there
is only fixed amount of "sweet spots" which can produce oil profitably at lower prices. In
2017 they are mostly gone, so what's left is not so attractive at the current prices. And this
is an understatement.
The same is true to Canadian sands. Plans for expansion are now revised down and investments
postponed.
So in order to sustain the US shale industry prices need to grow at least over $65 this
year
And those war-crazy militarists from Obama administration essentially continued Bush II
policies and wasted money in Middle East, Afghanistan and Ukraine, instead of facilitating
conversion of passenger cards to hybrids (and electrical for short commutes).
The US as a country wasted its time and now is completely unprepared for down of oil age.
The net result of Obama policies is that SUVs became that most popular type of passenger
cars in the USA. That can be called Iran revenge on the USA.
The conflict between Donald Trump and the US Deep State can be explained that deep state
can't allow Trump détente with Russia and stopping wars on neoliberal expansion at Middle East.
That's why they torpedoed General Flynn. It is not about Flynn, it was about Trump. To show
him who is the boss and warn "You can be fired".
Due to "overconsumption" of oil inherent in neoliberalism with its crazy goods flows that
might cross the ocean several times before getting to customer, US neoliberal empire (and neoliberalism
as social system) can well go off the cliff when cheap oil is gone.
The only question is when it happens and estimates vary from 10 to 50 years.
So in the best case neoliberalism might be able to outlive Bolshevism which lasted 74 years
(1917-1991) by only something like 15 years.
Tyler Cowen: There are a few reasons, but the internet may be the biggest. It is easier to
have fun while unemployed. That's a social problem for some people.
Noah Smith: If that's true -- if we're seeing a greater preference for leisure -- why are we
not seeing wages go up as a result? Is that market also broken?
Cowen: Maybe employers just aren't that keen to hire those males who prefer to live at home,
watch porn and not get married. Is that more of a personal failure on the part of the worker than
a market failure?
"... Under the circumstances, it's easy to forget that, back in 2003, he and other members of the Church of America the Redeemer devoutly supported the invasion of Iraq. They welcomed war. They urged it. They did so not because Saddam Hussein was uniquely evil-although he was evil enough-but because they saw in such a war the means for the United States to accomplish its salvific mission. Toppling Saddam and transforming Iraq would provide the mechanism for affirming and renewing America's "national greatness." ..."
"... In refusing to reckon with the results of the war he once so ardently endorsed, Brooks is hardly alone. Members of the Church of America the Redeemer, Democrats and Republicans alike, are demonstrably incapable of rendering an honest accounting of what their missionary efforts have yielded. ..."
"... Rather than requiring acts of contrition, the Church of America the Redeemer has long promulgated a doctrine of self-forgiveness, freely available to all adherents all the time. "You think our country's so innocent?" the nation's 45th president recently barked at a TV host who had the temerity to ask how he could have kind words for the likes of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Observers professed shock that a sitting president would openly question American innocence. ..."
"... In fact, Trump's response and the kerfuffle that ensued both missed the point. No serious person believes that the United States is "innocent." Worshipers in the Church of America the Redeemer do firmly believe, however, that America's transgressions, unlike those of other countries, don't count against it. Once committed, such sins are simply to be set aside and then expunged, a process that allows American politicians and pundits to condemn a "killer" like Putin with a perfectly clear conscience while demanding that Donald Trump do the same. ..."
Bacevich is an interesting thinker about the danger of the US militarism and neocon dominance
since Reagan.
Recently he speculated about the existence in the USA of a dangerous cult "the Church of
America the Redeemer" which is slightly broader than the concept of neocons. It is an apt synonym
of American Exceptionalism, and American Messianism. See
BTW we can find members of "the Church of America the Redeemer" cult in this forum too:
im1dc and Fred are obvious examples.
== quote ==
In terms of confessional fealty, his true allegiance is not to conservatism as such, but
to the Church of America the Redeemer. This is a virtual congregation, albeit one possessing
many of the attributes of a more traditional religion.
The Church has its own Holy Scripture, authenticated on July 4, 1776, at a gathering of
56 prophets. And it has its own saints, prominent among them the Good Thomas Jefferson, chief
author of the sacred text (not the Bad Thomas Jefferson who owned and impregnated slaves);
Abraham Lincoln, who freed said slaves and thereby suffered martyrdom (on Good Friday no less);
and, of course, the duly canonized figures most credited with saving the world itself from
evil: Winston Churchill and Franklin Roosevelt, their status akin to that of saints Peter and
Paul in Christianity.
The Church of America the Redeemer even has its own Jerusalem, located on the banks of the
Potomac, and its own hierarchy, its members situated nearby in High Temples of varying architectural
distinction.
This ecumenical enterprise does not prize theological rigor. When it comes to shalts and
shalt nots, it tends to be flexible, if not altogether squishy. It demands of the faithful
just one thing: a fervent belief in America's mission to remake the world in its own image.
Although in times of crisis Brooks has occasionally gone a bit wobbly, he remains at heart
a true believer.
In a March 1997 piece for The Weekly Standard, his then-employer, he summarized his credo.
Entitled "A Return to National Greatness," the essay opened with a glowing tribute to the Library
of Congress and, in particular, to the building completed precisely a century earlier to house
its many books and artifacts. According to Brooks, the structure itself embodied the aspirations
defining America's enduring purpose. He called particular attention to the dome above the main
reading room decorated with a dozen "monumental figures" representing the advance of civilization
and culminating in a figure representing America itself. Contemplating the imagery, Brooks
rhapsodized:
The theory of history depicted in this mural gave America impressive historical roots, a
spiritual connection to the centuries. And it assigned a specific historic role to America
as the latest successor to Jerusalem, Athens, and Rome. In the procession of civilization,
certain nations rise up to make extraordinary contributions At the dawn of the 20th century,
America was to take its turn at global supremacy. It was America's task to take the grandeur
of past civilizations, modernize it, and democratize it. This common destiny would unify diverse
Americans and give them a great national purpose.
This February, 20 years later, in a column with an identical title, but this time appearing
in the pages of his present employer, the New York Times, Brooks revisited this theme. Again,
he began with a paean to the Library of Congress and its spectacular dome with its series of
"monumental figures" that placed America "at the vanguard of the great human march of progress."
For Brooks, those 12 allegorical figures convey a profound truth.
America is the grateful inheritor of other people's gifts. It has a spiritual connection
to all people in all places, but also an exceptional role. America culminates history. It advances
a way of life and a democratic model that will provide people everywhere with dignity. The
things Americans do are not for themselves only, but for all mankind.
In 1997, in the midst of the Clinton presidency, Brooks had written that "America's mission
was to advance civilization itself." In 2017, as Donald Trump gained entry into the Oval Office,
he embellished and expanded that mission, describing a nation "assigned by providence to spread
democracy and prosperity; to welcome the stranger; to be brother and sister to the whole human
race."
Back in 1997, "a moment of world supremacy unlike any other," Brooks had worried that his
countrymen might not seize the opportunity that was presenting itself. On the cusp of the twenty-first
century, he worried that Americans had "discarded their pursuit of national greatness in just
about every particular." The times called for a leader like Theodore Roosevelt, who wielded
that classic "big stick" and undertook monster projects like the Panama Canal. Yet Americans
were stuck instead with Bill Clinton, a small-bore triangulator. "We no longer look at history
as a succession of golden ages," Brooks lamented. "And, save in the speeches of politicians
who usually have no clue what they are talking about," America was no longer fulfilling its
"special role as the vanguard of civilization."
By early 2017, with Donald Trump in the White House and Steve Bannon whispering in his ear,
matters had become worse still. Americans had seemingly abandoned their calling outright. "The
Trump and Bannon anschluss has exposed the hollowness of our patriotism," wrote Brooks, inserting
the now-obligatory reference to Nazi Germany. The November 2016 presidential election had "exposed
how attenuated our vision of national greatness has become and how easy it was for Trump and
Bannon to replace a youthful vision of American greatness with a reactionary, alien one." That
vision now threatens to leave America as "just another nation, hunkered down in a fearful world."
What exactly happened between 1997 and 2017, you might ask? What occurred during that "moment
of world supremacy" to reduce the United States from a nation summoned to redeem humankind
to one hunkered down in fear?
Trust Brooks to have at hand a brow-furrowing explanation. The fault, he explains, lies
with an "educational system that doesn't teach civilizational history or real American history
but instead a shapeless multiculturalism," as well as with "an intellectual culture that can't
imagine providence." Brooks blames "people on the left who are uncomfortable with patriotism
and people on the right who are uncomfortable with the federal government that is necessary
to lead our project."
An America that no longer believes in itself-that's the problem. In effect, Brooks revises
Norma Desmond's famous complaint about the movies, now repurposed to diagnose an ailing nation:
it's the politics that got small.
Nowhere does he consider the possibility that his formula for "national greatness" just
might be so much hooey. Between 1997 and 2017, after all, egged on by people like David Brooks,
Americans took a stab at "greatness," with the execrable Donald Trump now numbering among the
eventual results.
Invading Greatness
Say what you will about the shortcomings of the American educational system and the country's
intellectual culture, they had far less to do with creating Trump than did popular revulsion
prompted by specific policies that Brooks, among others, enthusiastically promoted. Not that
he is inclined to tally up the consequences. Only as a sort of postscript to his litany of
contemporary American ailments does he refer even in passing to what he calls the "humiliations
of Iraq."
A great phrase, that. Yet much like, say, the "tragedy of Vietnam" or the "crisis of Watergate,"
it conceals more than it reveals. Here, in short, is a succinct historical reference that cries
out for further explanation. It bursts at the seams with implications demanding to be unpacked,
weighed, and scrutinized. Brooks shrugs off Iraq as a minor embarrassment, the equivalent of
having shown up at a dinner party wearing the wrong clothes.
Under the circumstances, it's easy to forget that, back in 2003, he and other members
of the Church of America the Redeemer devoutly supported the invasion of Iraq. They welcomed
war. They urged it. They did so not because Saddam Hussein was uniquely evil-although he was
evil enough-but because they saw in such a war the means for the United States to accomplish
its salvific mission. Toppling Saddam and transforming Iraq would provide the mechanism for
affirming and renewing America's "national greatness."
Anyone daring to disagree with that proposition they denounced as craven or cowardly. Writing
at the time, Brooks disparaged those opposing the war as mere "marchers." They were effete,
pretentious, ineffective, and absurd. "These people are always in the streets with their banners
and puppets. They march against the IMF and World Bank one day, and against whatever war happens
to be going on the next They just march against."
Perhaps space constraints did not permit Brooks in his recent column to spell out the "humiliations"
that resulted and that even today continue to accumulate. Here in any event is a brief inventory
of what that euphemism conceals: thousands of Americans needlessly killed; tens of thousands
grievously wounded in body or spirit; trillions of dollars wasted; millions of Iraqis dead,
injured, or displaced; this nation's moral standing compromised by its resort to torture, kidnapping,
assassination, and other perversions; a region thrown into chaos and threatened by radical
terrorist entities like the Islamic State that U.S. military actions helped foster. And now,
if only as an oblique second-order bonus, we have Donald Trump's elevation to the presidency
to boot.
In refusing to reckon with the results of the war he once so ardently endorsed, Brooks
is hardly alone. Members of the Church of America the Redeemer, Democrats and Republicans alike,
are demonstrably incapable of rendering an honest accounting of what their missionary efforts
have yielded.
Brooks belongs, or once did, to the Church's neoconservative branch. But liberals such as
Bill Clinton, along with his secretary of state Madeleine Albright, were congregants in good
standing, as were Barack Obama and his secretary of state Hillary Clinton. So, too, are putative
conservatives like Senators John McCain, Ted Cruz, and Marco Rubio, all of them subscribing
to the belief in the singularity and indispensability of the United States as the chief engine
of history, now and forever.
Back in April 2003, confident that the fall of Baghdad had ended the Iraq War, Brooks predicted
that "no day will come when the enemies of this endeavor turn around and say, 'We were wrong.
Bush was right.'" Rather than admitting error, he continued, the war's opponents "will just
extend their forebodings into a more distant future."
Yet it is the war's proponents who, in the intervening years, have choked on admitting that
they were wrong. Or when making such an admission, as did both John Kerry and Hillary Clinton
while running for president, they write it off as an aberration, a momentary lapse in judgment
of no particular significance, like having guessed wrong on a TV quiz show.
Rather than requiring acts of contrition, the Church of America the Redeemer has long
promulgated a doctrine of self-forgiveness, freely available to all adherents all the time.
"You think our country's so innocent?" the nation's 45th president recently barked at a TV
host who had the temerity to ask how he could have kind words for the likes of Russian President
Vladimir Putin. Observers professed shock that a sitting president would openly question American
innocence.
In fact, Trump's response and the kerfuffle that ensued both missed the point. No serious
person believes that the United States is "innocent." Worshipers in the Church of America the
Redeemer do firmly believe, however, that America's transgressions, unlike those of other countries,
don't count against it. Once committed, such sins are simply to be set aside and then expunged,
a process that allows American politicians and pundits to condemn a "killer" like Putin with
a perfectly clear conscience while demanding that Donald Trump do the same.
What the Russian president has done in Crimea, Ukraine, and Syria qualifies as criminal.
What American presidents have done in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya qualifies as incidental
and, above all, beside the point.
Rather than confronting the havoc and bloodshed to which the United States has contributed,
those who worship in the Church of America the Redeemer keep their eyes fixed on the far horizon
and the work still to be done in aligning the world with American expectations. At least they
would, were it not for the arrival at center stage of a manifestly false prophet who, in promising
to "make America great again," inverts all that "national greatness" is meant to signify.
For Brooks and his fellow believers, the call to "greatness" emanates from faraway precincts-in
the Middle East, East Asia, and Eastern Europe. For Trump, the key to "greatness" lies in keeping
faraway places and the people who live there as faraway as possible. Brooks et al. see a world
that needs saving and believe that it's America's calling to do just that. In Trump's view,
saving others is not a peculiarly American responsibility. Events beyond our borders matter
only to the extent that they affect America's well-being. Trump worships in the Church of America
First, or at least pretends to do so in order to impress his followers.
That Donald Trump inhabits a universe of his own devising, constructed of carefully arranged
alt-facts, is no doubt the case. Yet, in truth, much the same can be said of David Brooks and
others sharing his view of a country providentially charged to serve as the "successor to Jerusalem,
Athens, and Rome." In fact, this conception of America's purpose expresses not the intent of
providence, which is inherently ambiguous, but their own arrogance and conceit. Out of that
conceit comes much mischief. And in the wake of mischief come charlatans like Donald Trump.
Andrew J. Bacevich, a TomDispatch regular, is the author of America's War for the
Greater Middle East: A Military History, now out in paperback.
"... The Democrats' central weakness comes from being a party of business but having to pretend otherwise. ..."
"... Since Donald Trump was inaugurated as the president of the United States, things have been moving so quickly it's hard to pause and take stock of our surroundings - let alone evaluate how we arrived at this nightmarish place. ..."
"... 'Ironically, both Stiglitz and Sanders have declared themselves to be democrats" ..."
"... I was a Democrat before and would be again. But, that would require that the neocons and neoliberals would be replaced by progressives. ..."
"... Shumer was elected Senate minority leader and that is a bad sign to me. He is sponsored by both neocons and neoliberals. ..."
"... Joe wants to be allowed to speak his piece. If he irritates the plutocrats too much they will cut off his access to media. ..."
A wide range of policies can help reduce inequality.
Policies should be aimed at reducing inequalities both in market income and in the post-tax and-transfer
incomes. The rules of the game play a large role in determining market distribution- in preventing
discrimination, in creating bargaining rights for workers, in curbing monopolies and the powers of
CEOs to exploit firms' other stakeholders and the financial sector to exploit the rest of society.
These rules were largely rewritten during the past thirty years in ways which led to more inequality
and poorer overall economic performance. Now they must be rewritten once again, to reduce inequality
and strengthen the economy, for instance, by discouraging the short-termism that has become rampant
in the financial and corporate sector.
Reforms include more support for education, including pre-school; increasing the minimum wage;
strengthening earned-income tax credits; strengthening the voice of workers in the workplace, including
through unions; and more effective enforcement of anti-discrimination laws. But there are four areas
in particular that could make inroads in the high level of inequality which now exists.
First, executive compensation (especially in the US) has become excessive, and it is hard to justify
the design of executive compensation schemes based on stock options.
Executives should not be rewarded for improvements in a firm's stock market performance in which
they play no part. If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, and that leads to an increase in
stock market prices, CEOs should not get a bonus as a result. If oil prices fall, and so profits
of airlines and the value of airline stocks increase, airline CEOs should not get a bonus. There
is an easy way of taking account of these gains (or losses) which are not attributable to the efforts
of executives: basing performance pay on the relative performance of firms in comparable circumstances.
The design of good compensation schemes that do this has been well understood for more than a third
of a century, and yet executives in major corporations have almost studiously resisted these insights.
They have focused more on taking advantages of deficiencies in corporate governance and the lack
of understanding of these issues by many shareholders to try to enhance their earnings- getting high
pay when share prices increase, and also when share prices fall. In the long run, as we have seen,
economic performance itself is hurt.
Second, macroeconomic policies are needed that maintain economic stability and full employment.
High unemployment most severely penalises those at the bottom and the middle of the income distribution.
Today, workers are suffering thrice over: from high unemployment, weak wages and cutbacks in public
services, as government revenues are less than they would be if economies were functioning well.
As we have argued, high inequality has weakened aggregate demand. Fuelling asset price bubbles
through hyper-expansive monetary policy and deregulation is not the only possible response. Higher
public investment- in infrastructures, technology and education- would both revive demand and alleviate
inequality, and this would boost growth in the long-run and in the short-run. According to a recent
empirical study by the IMF, well-designed public infrastructure investment raises output both in
the short and long term, especially when the economy is operating below potential. And it doesn't
need to increase public debt in terms of GDP: well-implemented infrastructure projects would pay
for themselves, as the increase in income (and thus in tax revenues) would more than offset the increase
in spending.
Third, public investment in education is fundamental to address inequality. A key determinant
of workers' income is the level and quality of education. If governments ensure equal access to education,
then the distribution of wages will reflect the distribution of abilities (including the ability
to benefit from education) and the extent to which the education system attempts to compensate for
differences in abilities and backgrounds. If, as in the United States, those with rich parents usually
have access to better education, then one generation's inequality will be passed on to the next,
and in each generation, wage inequality will reflect the income and related inequalities of the last.
Fourth, these much-needed public investments could be financed through fair and full taxation
of capital income. This would further contribute to counteracting the surge in inequality: it can
help bring down the net return to capital, so that those capitalists who save much of their income
won't see their wealth accumulate at a faster pace than the growth of the overall economy, resulting
in growing inequality of wealth. Special provisions providing for favourable taxation of capital
gains and dividends not only distort the economy, but, with the vast majority of the benefits going
to the very top, increase inequality. At the same time they impose enormous budgetary costs: 2 trillion
dollars from 2013 to 2023 in the US, according to the Congressional Budget Office. The elimination
of the special provisions for capital gains and dividends, coupled with the taxation of capital gains
on the basis of accrual, not just realisations, is the most obvious reform in the tax code that would
improve inequality and raise substantial amounts of revenues. There are many others, such as a good
system of inheritance and effectively enforced estate taxation.
Redefining economic performance
We used to think of there being a trade-off: we could achieve more equality, but only at the expense
of overall economic performance. It is now clear that, given the extremes of inequality being reached
in many rich countries and the manner in which they have been generated, greater equality and improved
economic performance are complements.
This is especially true if we focus on appropriate measures of growth. If we use the wrong metrics,
we will strive for the wrong things. As the international Commission on the Measurement of Economic
Performance and Social Progress argued, there is a growing global consensus that GDP does not provide
a good measure of overall economic performance. What matters is whether growth is sustainable, and
whether most citizens see their living standards rising year after year.
Since the beginning of the new millennium, the US economy, and that of most other advanced countries,
has clearly not been performing. In fact, for three decades, real median incomes have essentially
stagnated. Indeed, in the case of the US, the problems are even worse and were manifest well before
the recession: in the past four decades average wages have stagnated, even though productivity has
drastically increased.
As this essay has emphasised, a key factor underlying the current economic difficulties of rich
countries is growing inequality. We need to focus not on what is happening on average- as GDP leads
us to do- but on how the economy is performing for the typical citizen, reflected for instance in
median disposable income. People care about health, fairness and security, and yet GDP statistics
do not reflect their decline. Once these and other aspects of societal well-being are taken into
account, recent performance in rich countries looks much worse.
The economic policies required to change this are not difficult to identify. We need more investment
in public goods; better corporate governance, antitrust and anti-discrimination laws; a better regulated
financial system; stronger workers' rights; and more progressive tax and transfer policies. By 'rewriting
the rules' governing the market economy in these ways, it is possible to achieve greater equality
in both the pre- and post-tax and transfer distribution of income, and thereby stronger economic
performance.
[Joe had it right with this essay and progressives should elaborate and emphasize this message -
not just rant about Trump.]
That's the key point of the whole discussion. Dems are just a party of neoliberals.
Who are in the pocket of Wall Street.
So they are in the pocket of the same guys who bought Republicans (and both parties are
also puppets of MIC -- with Dems becoming the major War party; not that different from neocons
).
Stiglitz actually is very shy to criticize neoliberal "cult of GDP":
== quote ==
As this essay has emphasised, a key factor underlying the current economic difficulties of
rich countries is growing inequality. We need to focus not on what is happening on average
- as GDP leads us to do- but on how the economy is performing for the typical citizen, reflected
for instance in median disposable income.
People care about health, fairness and security, and yet GDP statistics do not reflect their
decline.
Once these and other aspects of societal well-being are taken into account, recent performance
in rich countries looks much worse.
== end of quote ==
This is why "pro growth liberals" are just crooks in disguise... With a smoke screen of
mathematical nonsense and obscure terminology to cover their tracks.
"This is why "pro growth liberals"
are just crooks in disguise... With a smoke screen of mathematical nonsense and obscure terminology
to cover their tracks."
Agreed. They originated with John Bates Clark and the neoclassical
concept of marginal utility:
I think it is a concept that
was used by Clark and other neoclassicals to counter Henry George's arguments for a tax on
rentiers and then later to obfuscate the role played by finance:
Henry George and john Bates
Clark
Henry George was the most popular economist of his day. Why did "elite" economists choose
to follow the lead of John Bates Clark instead of George?
IOW, elite economists had various theories to choose from. Why did they choose a theory that
neglcted unearned income?
.........................................................
"RA: So let me suggest that there is an alternative, and get your thoughts on this, because
this idea has run its course. People are now starting to wake up and say" enough." You've written
a lot about unearned versus earned wealth – unearned wealth or unearned increment, if you like
– and it goes back to a man called John Bates Clark. He was one of the first neoclassical economists.
I think I'm right in saying that. Just talk a bit about him, he said there was no differentiation,
is that right?
MH: Yes.
RA: And that seemingly innocuous proclamation has had huge effects.
MH: By the 1870s and '80s there was a lot of pressure in all countries, especially in the
United States, by socialists on the one hand and followers of the journalist Henry George on
the other. George wanted to tax away the land's economic rent and use that as the tax base,
instead of taxing labor and industry. So John Bates Clark wrote about the philosophy of wealth,
and said "There's no such thing as unearned income. Everything that the economists before me
have written is wrong. Everybody earns exactly what they contribute to national product and
that means that whatever their earnings are will be added to national product.""
http://michael-hudson.com/2016/12/innocuous-proclaimations/
..........................................................
Henry George (September 2, 1839 – October 29, 1897) was an American political economist, journalist,
and philosopher. His immensely popular writing is credited with sparking several reform movements
of the Progressive Era, and inspiring the broad economic philosophy known as Georgism, based
on the belief that people should own the value they produce themselves, but that the economic
value derived from land (including natural resources) should belong equally to all members
of society.
His most famous work, Progress and Poverty (1879), sold millions of copies worldwide, probably
more than any other American book before that time. The treatise investigates the paradox of
increasing inequality and poverty amid economic and technological progress, the cyclic nature
of industrialized economies, and the use of rent capture such as land value tax and other anti-monopoly
reforms as a remedy for these and other social problems.
............................................
Furthermore, on a visit to New York City, he was struck by the apparent paradox that the poor
in that long-established city were much worse off than the poor in less developed California.
These observations supplied the theme and title for his 1879 book Progress and Poverty, which
was a great success, selling over 3 million copies. In it George made the argument that a sizeable
portion of the wealth created by social and technological advances in a free market economy
is possessed by land owners and monopolists via economic rents, and that this concentration
of unearned wealth is the main cause of poverty. George considered it a great injustice that
private profit was being earned from restricting access to natural resources while productive
activity was burdened with heavy taxes, and indicated that such a system was equivalent to
slavery – a concept somewhat similar to wage slavery. This is also the work in which he made
the case for a land value tax in which governments would tax the value of the land itself,
thus preventing private interests from profiting upon its mere possession, but allowing the
value of all improvements made to that land to remain with investors.[27][28]
................................
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_George
..................................................
John Bates Clark (January 26, 1847 – March 21, 1938) was an American neoclassical economist.
He was one of the pioneers of the marginalist revolution and opponent to the Institutionalist
school of economics, and spent most of his career as professor at Columbia University.
............................................................
The foundation of Clark's further work was competition: "If nothing suppresses competition,
progress will continue forever".[8] Clark: "The science adapted is economic Darwinism.
Though the process was savage, the outlook which it afforded was not wholly evil. The survival
of crude strength was, in the long run, desirable".[9] This was the fundament to develop the
theory which made him famous: Given competition and homogeneous factors of production labor
and capital, the repartition of the social product will be according to the productivity of
the last physical input of units of labor and capital.
This theorem is a cornerstone of neoclassical micro-economics.
Clark stated it in 1891[10] and more elaborated 1899 in The Distribution of Wealth.[11] The
same theorem was formulated later independently by John Atkinson Hobson (1891) and Philip Wicksteed
(1894).
The political message of this theorem is: "[W]hat a social class gets is, under natural
law, what it contributes to the general output of industry."[12]
......................................
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bates_Clark
............................
The John Bates Clark Medal is awarded by the American Economic Association to "that American
economist under the age of forty who is adjudged to have made a significant contribution to
economic thought and knowledge".[1] According to The Chronicle of Higher Education, it "is
widely regarded as one of the field's most prestigious awards, perhaps second only to the Nobel
Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences."[2] The award was made biennially until 2007, but is being
awarded every year from 2009 because many deserving went unawarded.[3] The committee cited
economists such as Edward Glaeser and John A. List in campaigning that the award should be
annual. Named after the American economist John Bates Clark (1847–1938), it is considered one
of the two most prestigious awards in the field of economics, along with the Nobel Prize.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Bates_Clark_Medal
.....................................................
"It is important, for the record, to recognize that key participants in the debate openly
admitted their mistakes. Samuelson's seventh edition of Economics was purged of errors. Levhari
and Samuelson published a paper which began, 'We wish to make it clear for the record that
the nonreswitching theorem associated with us is definitely false. We are grateful to Dr. Pasinetti...'
(Levhari and Samuelson 1966). Leland Yeager and I jointly published a note acknowledging his
earlier error and attempting to resolve the conflict between our theoretical perspectives.
(Burmeister and Yeager, 1978).
However, the damage had been done, and Cambridge, UK, 'declared victory': Levhari was wrong,
Samuelson was wrong, Solow was wrong, MIT was wrong and therefore neoclassical economics was
wrong. As a result there are some groups of economists who have abandoned neoclassical economics
for their own refinements of classical economics. In the United States, on the other hand,
mainstream economics goes on as if the controversy had never occurred. Macroeconomics textbooks
discuss 'capital' as if it were a well-defined concept - which it is not, except in a very
special one-capital-good world (or under other unrealistically restrictive conditions). The
problems of heterogeneous capital goods have also been ignored in the 'rational expectations
revolution' and in virtually all econometric work." (Burmeister 2000)
Well stated, and that is what it would take to achieve 'party unity.'
In other words, put
the people and principles first, and then the health and growth of the party will fall into
place.
Party first is power first. And that allure for money and power is what wrecked the Democratic
party as it had been-- although that failure was a long time coming.
The Democrats' central weakness comes from being a party of business but having to pretend
otherwise.
by Katie Halper & Doug Henwood
Since Donald Trump was inaugurated as the president of the United States, things have
been moving so quickly it's hard to pause and take stock of our surroundings - let alone evaluate
how we arrived at this nightmarish place.
And the liberal commentariat hasn't helped, arguing that the autopsies on Hillary Clinton's
failed campaign do nothing but sabotage the "unity" needed to fight Trump. But if we don't
want round two against the Right to resemble round one, we need to know what went wrong and
how to fix it.
Twenty-First Century American Nationalism Needs to Be
Profoundly Cosmopolitan
The right pose--substantive and rhetorical--is to
recognize that, just as since 1620 the good American
nationalism has always held that people anywhere can elect to
become Americans by joining our utopian project here at home,
so in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries that good
American nationalism is one that puts global prosperity and
being a good neighbor and benevolent hegemon first....
Howbout the IMF's treatment of Greece. Is that being a "good
neighbor."
What about Iraq? Was destabilizing the Middle East and
sending a flood of refugees into Europe being a benevolent
hegemon?
I guess for DeLong being a good hegemon means buying the
exports of our allies like Japan and Germany and allowing
them and China to run trade surpluses, even if it benefits
multinational corporations at the expense of the American
middle class.
And turns us into an oligarchy. How does that make the
globe safer?
By provoking a populist backlash which results in Brexit
and President Trump. How does that make the world safer?
Our situation with neoliberalism reminds me lines from the "Hotel California " ;-)
http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/eagles/hotelcalifornia.html
== quote ==
Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
"Relax, " said the night man,
"We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! "
We can agree that all politico-economic
systems tried thus far by man have fatal flaws. Ours just works better, or has, for longer than any
other, so far that is.
Out situation with neoliberalism
reminds me lines from "Hotel California ;-)
http://www.azlyrics.com/lyrics/eagles/hotelcalifornia.html
== quote ==
Last thing I remember, I was
Running for the door
I had to find the passage back
To the place I was before
"Relax, " said the night man,
"We are programmed to receive.
You can check-out any time you like,
But you can never leave! "
It has worked for longer than
its contemporary contenders. E.g. the Roman empire could point to more centuries of existence.
When would you say "this system" started? E.g. is the current US a smooth continuation of the
late 1700's version, or were there "reboots" in between? How about a continuation of British
capitalism (also 1700s or earlier)?
I think his point was that the
USA (1776 - current)=="USA capitalism" which is around 200 years old outlasted Bolshevism which
lasted for only 74 years.
Of course, British capitalism is as long existing as the US capitalism (probably slightly
longer, as we can view period of slave ownership as "imperfect" or mixed capitalism).
In other words capitalism in its various forms is a relatively long term social system.
Which experienced several, often dramatic, transformations along the way. Probably all post
Napoleonic years can be viewed as years of existence of capitalism. So the USA is as old as
capitalism itself.
Of course various forms of capitalism are short lived:
New Deal capitalism (1933-1980) lasted around 47 years.
neoliberalism (around 1980-current) is approximately 37 years old.
In this sense Bolshevism (which Chinese viewed as a form of imperialism ;-) which lasted
74 years or so outlasted them.
"... Yet, a return to protectionism is not likely to solve the problems of those who have lost ground due to globalisation without appropriate compensation of its 'losers', and is bound to harm growth especially in emerging economies. The world rather needs a more inclusive model of globalisation. ..."
"... From an energy point of view globalisation is a disaster. The insane level of fossil fuels that this current world requires for transportation of necessities (food and clothing) is making this world an unstable world. Ipso Facto. ..."
"... Those who believe that globalisation is bringing value to the world should reconsider their views. The current globalisation has created both monopolies on a geopolitical ground, ie TV make or shipbuilding in Asia. ..."
"... Do you seriously believe that these new geographical and corporate monopolies does not create the kind bad outcomes that traditional – country-centric ones – monopolies have in the past? ..."
"... Then there is the practical issue of workers having next to no bargaining power under globalization. Do people really suppose that Mexican workers would be willing to strike so that their US counterparts, already making ficew times as much money, would get a raise? ..."
"... Basically our elite sold us a bill of goods is why we lost manufacturing. Greed. Nothing else. ..."
"... So proof is required to rollback globalization, but no proof was required to launch it or continue dishing it out? It's good to be the King, eh? ..."
"... America hasn't just gotten rid of the low level jobs. It has also gotten rid of supervisors and factory managers. Those are skills you can't get back overnight. For US plants in Mexico, you might have US managers there or be able to get special visas to let those managers come to the US. But US companies have shifted a ton, and I meant a ton, to foreign subcontractors. Some would put operations in the US to preserve access to US customers, but their managers won't speak English. How do you make this work? ..."
"... The real issue is commitment. Very little manufacturing will be re-shored unless companies are convinced that it is in their longterm interest to do so. ..."
"... There is also what I've heard referred to as the "next bench" phenomenon, in which products arise because someone designs a new product/process to solve a manufacturing problem. Unless one has great foresight, the designer of the new product must be aware there is a problem to solve. ..."
"... When a country is involved in manufacturing, the citizens employed will have exposure to production problems and issues. ..."
"... After his speech he took questions. I asked "Would Toyota ever separate design from manufacturing?" as HP had done, shipping all manufacturing to Asia. "No" was his answer. ..."
"... In my experience, it is way too useful to have the line be able to easily call the designer in question and have him come take a look at what his design is doing. HP tried to get around that by sending part of the design team to Asia to watch the startup. Didn't work as well. And when problems emerged later, it was always difficult to debug by remote control. ..."
"... How about mass imports of cheap workers into western countries in the guise of emigrants to push down worker's pay and gut things like unions. That factor played a decisive factor in both the Brexit referendum and the US 2016 elections. Or the subsidized exportation of western countries industrial equipment to third world countries, leaving local workers swinging in the wind. ..."
"... The data sets do not capture some of the most important factors in what they are saying. It is like putting together a paper on how and why white men voted in the 2016 US elections as they did – and forgetting to mention the effect of the rest of the voters involved. ..."
"... I had a similar reaction. This research was reinforcing info about everyone's resentment over really bad distribution of wealth, as far as it went, but it was so unsatisfying ..."
"... "Right to work" is nothing other than a way to undercut quality of work for "run-to-the-bottom competitive pay." ..."
"... I've noticed that the only people in favor of globalization are those whose jobs are not under threat from it. ..."
"... First off, economic nationalism is not necessarily right wing. I would certainly classify Bernie Sanders as an economic nationalist (against open borders and against "free" trade). Syriza and Podemos could arguably be called rather ineffective economic nationalist parties. I would say the whole ideology of social democracy is based on the Swedish nationalist concept of a "folkhem", where the nation is the home and the citizens are the folk. ..."
"... So China is Turmpism on steroids. Israel obviously is as well. Why do some nations get to be blatantly Trumpist while for others these policies are strictly forbidden? ..."
"... One way to look at Globalization is as an updated version of the post WW1 Versailles Treaty which imposed reparations on a defeated Germany for all the harm they caused during the Great War. The Globalized Versailles Treaty is aimed at the American and European working classes for the crimes of colonialism, racism, slavery and any other bad things the 1st world has done to the 3rd in the past. ..."
"... And yes, this applies to Bernie Sanders as well. During that iconic interview where Sanders denounced open borders and pushed economic nationalism, the Neoliberal interviewer immediately played the global guilt card in response. ..."
"... During colonialism the 3rd world had a form of open borders imposed on it by the colonial powers, where the 3rd world lost control of who what crossed their borders while the 1st world themselves maintained a closed border mercantilist regime of strict filters. So the anti-colonialist movement was a form of Trumpist economic nationalism where the evil foreigners were given the boot and the nascent nations applied filters to their borders. ..."
"... Nationalism (my opinion) can do this – economic nationalism. And of course other people think oh gawd, not that again – it's so inefficient for my investments- I can't get fast returns that way but that's just the point. ..."
"... China was not a significant exporter until the 2001 inclusion in WTO: it cannot possibly have caused populist uprisings in Italy and Belgium in the 1990s. It was probably too early even for Pim Fortuyn in the Netherlands, who was killed in 2002, Le Pen's electoral success in the same year, Austria's FPOE in 1999, and so on. ..."
"... In the 1930s Keynes realized, income was just as important as profit as this produced a sustainable system that does not rely on debt to maintain demand. ..."
"... "Although commercial banks create money through lending, they cannot do so freely without limit. Banks are limited in how much they can lend if they are to remain profitable in a competitive banking system." ..."
"... The Romans are the basis. Patricians, Equites and Plebs. Most of us here are clearly plebeian. Time to go place some bets, watch the chariot races and gladiatorial fights, and get my bread subsidy. Ciao. ..."
"... 80-90% of Bonds and Equities ( at least in USA) are owned by top 10 %. 0.7% own 45% of global wealth. 8 billionaires own more than 50% of wealth than that of bottom 50% in our Country! ..."
"... Globalisation has caused a surge in support for nationalist and radical right political platforms. ..."
"... Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership seems to be a move in that direction. ..."
"... Yet, a return to protectionism is not likely to solve the problems of those who have lost ground due to globalisation without appropriate compensation of its 'losers' ..."
"... and is bound to harm growth especially in emerging economies. ..."
"... The world rather needs a more inclusive model of globalisation. ..."
Definitely a pleasant read but IMHO wrong conclusion: Yet, a return to protectionism is
not likely to solve the problems of those who have lost ground due to globalisation without appropriate
compensation of its 'losers', and is bound to harm growth especially in emerging economies. The
world rather needs a more inclusive model of globalisation.
From an energy point of view globalisation is a disaster. The insane level of fossil fuels
that this current world requires for transportation of necessities (food and clothing) is making
this world an unstable world. Ipso Facto.
We need a world where goods move little as possible (yep!) when smart ideas and technology
(medical, science, industry, yep that's essential) move as much as possible. Internet makes this
possible. This is no dream but a XXIth century reality.
Work – the big one – is required and done where and when it occurs. That is on all continents
if not in every country. Not in an insanely remote suburbs of Asia.
Those who believe that globalisation is bringing value to the world should reconsider their
views. The current globalisation has created both monopolies on a geopolitical ground, ie TV make
or shipbuilding in Asia.
Do you seriously believe that these new geographical and corporate monopolies does not
create the kind bad outcomes that traditional – country-centric ones – monopolies have in the
past?
Yves Smith can have nasty words when it comes to discussing massive trade surplus and policies
that supports them. That's my single most important motivation for reading this challenging blog,
by the way.
Another thing is that reliance on complex supply chains is risky. The book 1177 B.C.: The Year
Civilization Collapsed describes how the ancient Mediterranian civilization collapsed when the
supply chains stopped working.
Then there is the practical issue of workers having next to no bargaining power under globalization.
Do people really suppose that Mexican workers would be willing to strike so that their US counterparts,
already making ficew times as much money, would get a raise?
Is Finland somehow supposed to force the US and China to adopt similar worker rights and environmental
protections? No, globalization, no matter how you slice it,is a race to the bottom.
I do not agree with the article's conclusion either.
Reshoring would have 1 of 2 outcomes:
Lots of manufacturing jobs and a solid middle class. We may be looking at more than 20
percent total employment in manufacturing and more than 30 percent of our GDP in manufacturing.
If the robots take over, we still have a lot of manufacturing jobs. Japan for example has
the most robots per capita, yet they still maintain very large amounts of manufacturing employment.
It does not mean the end of manufacturing at all, having worked in manufacturing before.
Basically our elite sold us a bill of goods is why we lost manufacturing. Greed. Nothing
else.
The conclusion is the least important thing. Conclusions are just interpretations, afterthoughts,
divagations (which btw are often just sneaky ways to get your work published by TPTB, surreptitiously
inserting radical stuff under the noses of the guardians of orthodoxy).
The value of these reports is in providing hardcore statistical evidence and quantification
for something for which so many people have a gut feeling but just cann't prove it (although many
seem to think that just having a strong opinion is sufficient).
Yes, correct. Intuition is great for coming up with hypotheses, but it is important to test
them. And while a correlation isn't causation, it at least says the hypothesis isn't nuts on its
face.
In addition, studies like this are helpful in challenging the oft-made claim, particularly
in the US, that people who vote for nationalist policies are bigots of some stripe.
You are missing the transition costs, which will take ten years, maybe a generation.
America hasn't just gotten rid of the low level jobs. It has also gotten rid of supervisors
and factory managers. Those are skills you can't get back overnight. For US plants in Mexico,
you might have US managers there or be able to get special visas to let those managers come to
the US. But US companies have shifted a ton, and I meant a ton, to foreign subcontractors. Some
would put operations in the US to preserve access to US customers, but their managers won't speak
English. How do you make this work?
The only culture with demonstrated success in working with supposedly hopeless US workers is
the Japanese, who proved that with the NUMMI joint venture with GM in one of its very worst factories
(in terms of the alleged caliber of the workforce, as in many would show up for work drunk). Toyota
got the plant to function at better than average (as in lower) defect levels and comparable productivity
to its plants in Japan, which was light years better than Big Three norms.
I'm not sure any other foreign managers are as sensitive to detail and the fine points of working
conditions as the Japanese (having worked with them extensively, the Japanese hear frequencies
of power dynamics that are lost on Westerners. And the Chinese do not even begin to have that
capability, as much as they have other valuable cultural attributes).
That is really interesting about the Japanese sensitivity to detail and power dynamics. If
anyone has managed to describe this in any detail, I would love to read more, though I suppose
if their ability is alien to most Westerners the task of describing it might also be too much
to handle.
I lean more to ten years than a generation. And in the grand scheme of things, 10 years is
nothing.
The real issue is commitment. Very little manufacturing will be re-shored unless companies
are convinced that it is in their longterm interest to do so. Which means having a sense
that the US government is serious, and will continue to be serious, about penalizing off-shoring.
Regardless of Trump's bluster, which has so far only resulted in a handful of companies halting
future offshoring decisions (all to the good), we are nowhere close to that yet.
There is also what I've heard referred to as the "next bench" phenomenon, in which products
arise because someone designs a new product/process to solve a manufacturing problem. Unless one
has great foresight, the designer of the new product must be aware there is a problem to solve.
When a country is involved in manufacturing, the citizens employed will have exposure to
production problems and issues.
Sometimes the solution to these problems can lead to new products outside of one's main
business, for example the USA's Kingsford Charcoal arose from a scrap wood disposal problem that
Henry Ford had.
If one googles for "patent applications by countries" one gets these numbers, which could be
an indirect indication of some of the manufacturing shift from the USA to Asia.
Patent applications for the top 10 offices, 2014
1. China 928,177
2. US 578,802
3. Japan 325,989
4. South Korea 210,292
What is not captured in these numbers are manufacturing processes known as "trade secrets"
that are not disclosed in a patent. The idea that the USA can move move much of its manufacturing
overseas without long term harming its workforce and economy seems implausible to me.
While a design EE at HP, they brought in an author who had written about Toyota's lean design
method, which was currently the management hot button du jour. After his speech he took questions.
I asked "Would Toyota ever separate design from manufacturing?" as HP had done, shipping all manufacturing
to Asia. "No" was his answer.
In my experience, it is way too useful to have the line be able to easily call the designer
in question and have him come take a look at what his design is doing. HP tried to get around
that by sending part of the design team to Asia to watch the startup. Didn't work as well. And
when problems emerged later, it was always difficult to debug by remote control.
And BTW, after manufacturing went overseas, management told us for costing to assume "Labor
is free". Some level playing field.
Oh gawd! The man talks about the effects of globalization and says that the solution is a "a
more inclusive model of globalization"? Seriously? Furthermore he singles out Chinese imports
as the cause of people being pushed to the right. Yeah, right.
How about mass imports of cheap workers into western countries in the guise of emigrants
to push down worker's pay and gut things like unions. That factor played a decisive factor in
both the Brexit referendum and the US 2016 elections. Or the subsidized exportation of western
countries industrial equipment to third world countries, leaving local workers swinging in the
wind.
This study is so incomplete it is almost useless. The only thing that comes to mind to say
about this study is the phrase "Apart from that Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?" And what form
of appropriate compensation of its 'losers' would they suggest? Training for non-existent jobs?
Free moving fees to the east or west coast for Americans in flyover country? Subsidized emigration
fees to third world countries where life is cheaper for workers with no future where they are?
Nice try fellas but time to redo your work again until it is fit for a passing grade.
Aw jeez, mate – you've just hurt my feelings here. Take a look at the actual article again.
The data sets do not capture some of the most important factors in what they are saying. It
is like putting together a paper on how and why white men voted in the 2016 US elections as they
did – and forgetting to mention the effect of the rest of the voters involved.
Hey, here is an interesting thought experiment for you. How about we apply the scientific method
to the past 40 years of economic theory since models with actual data strike your fancy. If we
find that the empirical data does not support a theory such as the theory of economic neoliberalism,
we can junk it then and replace it with something that actually works then. So far as I know,
modern economics seems to be immune to scientific rigour in their methods unlike the real sciences.
Not all relevant factors need to be included for a statistical analysis to be valid, as long
as relevant ignored factors are randomized amongst the sampling units, but you know that of course.
Thanks for you kind words about the real sciences, we work hard to keep it real, but once again,
in all fairness, between you and me mate, is not all rigour, it is a lot more Feyerabend than
Popper.
What you say is entirely true. The trouble has always been to make sure that that statistical
analysis actually reflects the real world enough to make it valid. An example of where it all
falls apart can be seen in the political world when the pundits, media and all the pollsters assured
America that Clinton had it in the bag. It was only after the dust had settled that it was revealed
how bodgy the methodology used had been.
By the way, Karl Popper and Paul Feyerabend sound very interesting so thanks for the heads
up. Have you heard of some of the material of another bloke called Mark Blyth at all? He has some
interesting observations to make on modern economic practices.
I had a similar reaction. This research was reinforcing info about everyone's resentment
over really bad distribution of wealth, as far as it went, but it was so unsatisfying and
I immediately thought of Blyth who laments the whole phylogeny of economics as more or less serving
the rich.
The one solution he offered up a while ago was (paraphrasing) 'don't sweat the deficit spending
because it is all 6s in the end' which is true if distribution doesn't stagnate. So as it stands
now, offshoring arms, legs and firstborns is like 'nothing to see here, please move on'. The suggestion
that we need a more inclusive form of global trade kind of begs the question. Made me uneasy too.
"Gut things like unions." How so? In my recent interaction with my apartment agency's preferred
contractors, random contractors not unionized, I experienced a 6 month-long disaster.
These construction workers bragged that in 2 weeks they would have the complete job done -
a reconstructed deck and sunroom. Verbatim quote: "Union workers complete the job and tear it
down to keep everyone paying." Ha Ha! What a laugh!
Only to have these same dudes keep saying "next week", "next week", "next week", "next week".
The work began in August and only was finished (not completely!) in late January. Sloppy crap!
Even the apartment agency head maintenance guy who I finally bitched at said "I guess good work
is hard to come by these days."
Of the non-union guys he hired.
My state just elected a republican governor who promised "right to work." This was just signed
into law.
Immigrants and Mexicans had nothing to do with it. They're not an impact in my city. "Right
to work" is nothing other than a way to undercut quality of work for "run-to-the-bottom competitive
pay."
Now I await whether my rent goes up to pay for this nonsense.
They look at the labor cost, assume someone can do it cheaper. They don't think it's that difficult.
Maybe it's not. The hard part of any and all construction work is getting it finished. Getting
started is easy. Getting it finished on time? Nah, you can't afford that.
I've noticed that the only people in favor of globalization are those whose jobs are not
under threat from it. Beyond that, I think the flood of cheap Chinese goods is actually helping
suppress populist anger by allowing workers whose wages are dropping in real value terms to maintain
the illusion of prosperity. To me, a more "inclusive" form of globalization would include replacing
every economist with a Chinese immigrant earning minimum wage. That way they'd get to "experience"
how awesome it is and the value of future economic analysis would be just as good.
I'm going to question a few of the author's assumptions.
First off, economic nationalism is not necessarily right wing. I would certainly classify
Bernie Sanders as an economic nationalist (against open borders and against "free" trade). Syriza
and Podemos could arguably be called rather ineffective economic nationalist parties. I would
say the whole ideology of social democracy is based on the Swedish nationalist concept of a "folkhem",
where the nation is the home and the citizens are the folk.
Secondly, when discussing the concept of economic nationalism and the nation of China, it would
be interesting to discuss how these two things go together. China has more billionaires than refugees
accepted in the past 20 years. Also it is practically impossible for a non Han Chinese person
to become a naturalized Chinese citizen. And when China buys Boeing aircraft, they wisely insist
on the production being done in China. A close look at Japan would yield similar results.
So China is Turmpism on steroids. Israel obviously is as well. Why do some nations get
to be blatantly Trumpist while for others these policies are strictly forbidden?
One way to look at Globalization is as an updated version of the post WW1 Versailles Treaty
which imposed reparations on a defeated Germany for all the harm they caused during the Great
War. The Globalized Versailles Treaty is aimed at the American and European working classes for
the crimes of colonialism, racism, slavery and any other bad things the 1st world has done to
the 3rd in the past.
Of course during colonialism the costs were socialized within colonizing states and so it was
the people of the colonial power who paid those costs that weren't borne by the colonial subjects
themselves, who of course paid dearly, and it was the oligarchic class that privatized the colonial
profits. But the 1st world oligarchs and their urban bourgeoisie are in strong agreement that
the deplorable working classes are to blame for systems that hurt working classes but powerfully
enriched the wealthy!
And so with the recent rebellions against Globalization, the 1st and 3rd world oligarchs are
convinced these are nothing more than the 1st world working classes attempting to shirk their
historic guilt debt by refusing to pay the rightful reparations in terms of standard of living
that workers deserve to pay for the crimes committed in the past by their wealthy co-nationals.
And yes, this applies to Bernie Sanders as well. During that iconic interview where Sanders
denounced open borders and pushed economic nationalism, the Neoliberal interviewer immediately
played the global guilt card in response.
Interesting. Another way to look at it is from the point of view of entropy and closed vs open
systems. Before globalisation the 1st world working classes enjoyed a high standard of living
which was possible because their system was relatively closed to the rest of the world. It was
a high entropy, strongly structured socio-economic arrangement, with a large difference in standard
of living between 1st world and 3rd world working classes. Once their system became more open
by virtue (or vice) of globalisation, entropy increased as commanded by the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics
so the 1st world and 3rd world working classes became more equalised. The socio-economic arrangements
became less structured. This means for the Trumpening kind of politicians it is a steep uphill
battle, to increase entropy again.
Yes, I agree, but if we step back in history a bit we can see the colonial period as a sort
of reverse globalization which perhaps portends a bit of optimism for the Trumpening.
I use the term open and closed borders but these are not precise. What I am really saying is
that open borders does not allow a country to filter out negative flows across their border. Closed
borders does allow a nation to impose a filter. So currently the US has more open borders (filters
are frowned upon) and China has closed borders (they can filter out what they don't want) despite
the fact that obviously China has plenty of things crossing its border.
During colonialism the 3rd world had a form of open borders imposed on it by the colonial
powers, where the 3rd world lost control of who what crossed their borders while the 1st world
themselves maintained a closed border mercantilist regime of strict filters. So the anti-colonialist
movement was a form of Trumpist economic nationalism where the evil foreigners were given the
boot and the nascent nations applied filters to their borders.
So the 3rd world to some extent (certainly in China at least) was able to overcome entropy
and regain control of their borders. You are correct in that it will be an uphill struggle for
the 1st world to repeat this trick. In the ideal world both forms of globalization (colonialism
and the current form) would be sidelined and all nations would be allowed to use the border filters
they think would best protect the prosperity of their citizens.
Another good option would be a version of the current globalization but where the losers are
the wealthy oligarchs themselves and the winners are the working classes. It's hard to imagine
it's easy if you try!
What's interesting about the concept of entropy is that it stands in contradiction to the concept
of perpetual progress. I'm sure there is some sort of thesis, antithesis, synthesis solution to
these conflicting concepts.
To overcome an entropy current requires superb skill commanding a large magnitude of work applied
densely on a small substratum (think of the evolution of the DNA, the internal combustion engine).
I believe the Trumpening laudable effort and persuasion would have a chance of success in a country
the size of The Netherlands, or even France, but the USA, the largest State machinery in the world,
hardly. When the entropy current flooded the Soviet system the solution came firstly in the form
of shrinkage.
We need to think more about it, a lot more, in order to succeed in this 1st world uphill struggle
to repeat the trick. I am pretty sure that as Pierre de Fermat famously claimed about his alleged
proof, the solution "is too large to fit in the margins of this book".
My little entropy epiphany goes like this: it's like boxes – containers, if you will, of energy
or money, or trade goods, the flow of which is best slowed down so everybody can grab some. Break
it all down, decentralize it and force it into containers which slow the pace and share the wealth.
Nationalism (my opinion) can do this – economic nationalism. And of course other
people think oh gawd, not that again – it's so inefficient for my investments- I can't get fast
returns that way but that's just the point.
Don't you mean "It was a LOWER entropy (as in "more ordered"), strongly structured socio-economic
arrangement, with a large difference in standard of living between 1st world"?
The entropy increased as a consequence of human guided globalization.
Of course, from a thermodynamic standpoint, the earth is not a closed system as it is continually
flooded with new energy in the form of solar radiation.
The Globalized Versailles Treaty -- Permit me a short laughter . The terms of the crippling
treaty were dictated by the victors largely on insecurities of France.
The crimes of the 1st against the 3rd go on even now- the only difference is that some of the
South like China and India are major nuclear powers now.
The racist crimes in the US are even more flagrant- the Blacks whose labour as slaves allowed
for cotton revolution enabling US capitalists to ride the industrial horse are yet to be rehabilitated
, Obama or no Obama. It is a matter of profound shame.
The benefits of Globalization have gone only to the cartel of 1st and 3rd World Capitalists.
And they are very happy as the lower classes keep fighting. Very happy indeed.
The gorgon cry of the past is all over the present , including in " unsuspecting" paying folks
of today! Blacks being brought to US as slave agricultural labour was Globalisation. Their energy
vibrated the machinery of Economics subsequently. What Nationalism and where is it hiding pray?
Bogus analysis here , yes.
The reigning social democratic parties in Europe today are not the Swedish traditional parties
of yesteryear they have morphed into neoliberal austerians committed to globalization and export
driven economic models at any cost (CETA vote recently) and most responsible for the economic
collapse in the EU
I wonder they chose Chinese imports as the cause of the right-wing shift, when they themselves
admit that the shift started in the 1990s. At that time, there were few Chinese imports and China
was not even part of the WHO.
If they are thinking of movements like the Lega Nord and Vlaams Blok, the reasons are clearly
not to be found in imports, but in immigration, the welfare state and lack of national homogeneity,
perceived or not.
And the beginnings of the precariat.
So it is not really the globalization of commerce that did it, but the loss of relevance of
national and local identities.
Correlation does not imply causation, but lack of correlation definitely excludes it.
The Lega was formed in the 1980s, Vlaams Blok at the end of the '70s. They both had their best
days in the 1990s. Chinese imports at the time were insignificant.
I cannot find the breakdown of Chinese imports per EU country, but here are the total Chinese
exports since 1983:
China was not a significant exporter until the 2001 inclusion in WTO: it cannot possibly
have caused populist uprisings in Italy and Belgium in the 1990s. It was probably too early even
for Pim Fortuyn in the Netherlands, who was killed in 2002, Le Pen's electoral success in the
same year, Austria's FPOE in 1999, and so on.
The timescales just do not match. Whatever was causing "populism", it was not Chinese imports,
and I can think of half a dozen other, more likely causes.
Furthermore, the 1980s and 1990s were something of an industrial renaissance for Lombardy and
Flanders: hardly the time to worry about Chinese imports.
And if you look at the map. the country least affected by the import shock (France) is the
one with the strongest populist movement (Le Pen).
People try to conflate Trump_vs_deep_state and Brexit with each other, then try to conflate this "anglo-saxon"
populism with previous populisms in Europe, and try to deduce something from the whole exercise.
That "something" is just not there and the exercise is pointless. IMHO at least.
European regionalism is often the result of the rise of the EU as a new, alternative national
government in the eyes of the disgruntled regions. Typically there are three levels of government,
local, regional (states) and national. With the rise of the EU we have a fourth level, supra-national.
But to the Flemish, Scottish, Catalans, etc, they see the EU as a potential replacement for the
National-level governments they currently are unhappy being under the authority of.
Capitalism should be evolving but it went backwards. Keynesian capitalism evolved from the
free market capitalism that preceded it. The absolute faith in markets had been laid low by 1929
and the Great Depression.
After the Keynesian era we went back to the old free market capitalism of neoclassical economics.
Instead of evolving, capitalism went backwards. We had another Wall Street Crash that has laid
low the once vibrant global economy and we have entered into the new normal of secular stagnation.
In the 1930s, Irving Fisher studied the debt deflation caused by debt saturated economies. Today
only a few economists outside the mainstream realise this is the problem today.
In the 1930s, Keynes realized only fiscal stimulus would pull the US out of the Great Depression,
eventually the US implemented the New Deal and it started to recover. Today we use monetary policy
that keeps asset prices up but cannot overcome the drag of all that debt in the system and its
associated repayments.
In the 1920s, they relied on debt based consumption, not realizing how consumers will eventually
become saturated with debt and demand will fail. Today we rely on debt based consumption again,
Greece consumed on debt. until it maxed out on debt and collapsed.
In the 1930s Keynes realized, income was just as important as profit as this produced a
sustainable system that does not rely on debt to maintain demand. Keynes was involved with
the Bretton-Woods agreement after the Second World War and recycled the US surplus to Europe to
restore trade when Europe lay in ruins. Europe could rebuild itself and consume US products, everyone
benefitted.
Today there are no direct fiscal transfers within the Euro-zone and it is polarizing. No one
can see the benefits of rebuilding Greece, to allow it to carry on consuming the goods from surplus
nations and it just sinks further and further into the mire. There is a lot to be said for capitalism
going forwards rather than backwards and making the same old mistakes a second time.
The ECB didn't listen and killed Greece with austerity and is laying low the Club-Med nations.
Someone who knows what they are doing, after studying the Great Depression and Japan after 1989.
Let's keep him out of the limelight; he has no place on the ship of fools running the show.
DEBT on Debt with QEs+ ZRP ( borrowing from future) was the 'solution' by Bernanke to mask
the 2008 crisis and NOT address the underlying structural reforms in the Banking and the Financial
industry. He was part of the problem for housing problem and occurred under his watch! He just
kicked the can with explosive credit growth ( but no corresponding growth in the productive Economy!)and
easy money!
We have a 'Mother of all bubbles' at our door step. Just matter of time when it will BLOW and
NOT if! There is record levels of DEBT ( both sovereign, public and private) in the history of
mankind, all over the World.
DEBT has been used as a panacea for all the financial problems by CBers including Bernanke!
Fed's balance sheet was than less 1 Trillion in 2008 ( for all the years of existence of our Country!)
but now over 3.5 Trillions and climbing!
Kicking the can down the road is like passing the buck to some one (future generations!). And
you call that solution by Mr. Bernanke? Wow!
Will they say again " No one saw this coming'? when next one descends?
The independent Central Banks that don't know what they are doing as can be seen from their
track record.
The FED presided over the dot.com bust and 2008, unaware that they were happening and of their
consequences. Alan Greenspan spots irrational exuberance in the markets in 1996 and passes comment.
As the subsequent dot.com boom and housing booms run away with themselves he says nothing.
The money supply is flat in the recession of the early 1990s.
Then it really starts to take off as the dot.com boom gets going which rapidly morphs into
the US housing boom, courtesy of Alan Greenspan's loose monetary policy.
When M3 gets closer to the vertical, the black swan is coming and you have an out of control
credit bubble on your hands (money = debt).
We can only presume the FED wasn't looking at the US money supply, what on earth were they
doing?
The BoE is aware of how money is created from debt and destroyed by repayments of that debt.
"Although commercial banks create money through lending, they cannot do so freely without
limit. Banks are limited in how much they can lend if they are to remain profitable in a competitive
banking system."
The BoE's statement was true, but is not true now as banks can securitize bad loans and get
them off their books. Before 2008, banks were securitising all the garbage sub-prime mortgages,
e.g. NINJA mortgages, and getting them off their books. Money is being created freely and without
limit, M3 is going exponential before 2008.
Bad debt is entering the system and no one is taking any responsibility for it. The credit
bubble is reflected in the money supply that should be obvious to anyone that cares to look.
Ben Bernanke studied the Great Depression and doesn't appear to have learnt very much.
Irving Fisher studied the Great Depression in the 1930s and comes up with a theory of debt
deflation. A debt inflated asset bubble collapses and the debt saturated economy sinks into debt
deflation. 2008 is the same as 1929 except a different asset class is involved.
1929 – Margin lending into US stocks
2008 – Mortgage lending into US housing
Hyman Minsky carried on with his work and came up with the "Financial Instability Hypothesis"
in 1974.
Steve Keen carried on with their work and spotted 2008 coming in 2005. We can see what Steve
Keen saw in 2005 in the US money supply graph above.
The independent Central Banks that don't know what they are doing as can be seen from their
track record.
Good to see studies confirming what was already known.
This apparently surprised:
On the contrary, as globalisation threatens the success and survival of entire industrial
districts, the affected communities seem to have voted in a homogeneous way, regardless of
each voter's personal situation.
It is only surprising for people not part of communities, those who are part of communities
see how it affects people around them and solidarity with the so called 'losers' is then shown.
Seems like radical right is the preferred term, it does make it more difficult to sympathize
with someone branded as radical right . The difference seems to be between the radical liberals
vs the conservative. The radical liberals are too cowardly to propose the laws they want, they
prefer to selectively apply the laws as they see fit. Either enforce the laws or change the laws,
anything else is plain wrong.
Socialism for the upper classes, capitalism for the lower classes? That will turn out well.
Debt slaves and wage slaves will revolt. That is all the analysis the OP requires. The upper class
will respond with suppression, not policy reversal every time. Socialism = making everyone equally
poor (obviously not for the upper classes who benefit from the arrangement).
Regrettably today we have socialism for the wealthy, with all the benefits of gov regulations,
sympathetic courts and legislatures etc. etc.
Workers are supposed to take care for themselves and the devil take the hind most. How many
workers get fired vs the 1%, when there is a failure in the company plan?
The Romans are the basis. Patricians, Equites and Plebs. Most of us here are clearly plebeian.
Time to go place some bets, watch the chariot races and gladiatorial fights, and get my bread
subsidy. Ciao.
Globalization created winners and losers throughout the world. The winners liked it, the losers
didn't. Democracy is based on the support of the majority.
The majority in the East were winners. The majority in the West were losers.
The Left has maintained its support of neoliberal globalisation in the West. The Right has
moved on. There has been a shift to the Right. Democracy is all about winners and losers and whether
the majority are winning or losing. It hasn't changed.
Globalization( along with communication -internet and transportation) made the Labor wage arbitration,
easy in favor of capital ( Multi-Nationals). Most of the jobs gone overseas will NEVER come back.
Robotic revolution will render the remaining jobs, less and less!
The 'new' Economy by passed the majority of lower 80-90% and favored the top 10%. The Losers
and the Winners!
80-90% of Bonds and Equities ( at least in USA) are owned by top 10 %. 0.7% own 45% of
global wealth. 8 billionaires own more than 50% of wealth than that of bottom 50% in our Country!
The Rich became richer!
The tension between Have and Have -Nots has just begun, as Marx predicted!
I think it's about time that we stopped referring to opposition to globalization as a product
or policy of the "extreme right". It would be truer to say that globalization represents a temporary,
and now fading, triumph of certain ideas about trade and movement of people and capital which
have always existed, but were not dominant in the past. Fifty years ago, most mainstream political
parties were "protectionist" in the sense the word is used today. Thirty years ago, protectionism
was often seen as a left)wing idea, to preserve standards of living and conditions of employment
(Wynne Godley and co). Today, all establishment political parties in the West have swallowed neoliberal
dogma, so the voters turn elsewhere, to parties outside the mainstream. Often, it's convenient
politically to label them "extreme right", although in Europe some left-wing parties take basically
the same position. If you ignore peoples' interests, they won't vote for you. Quelle surprise!
as Yves would say.
Yes, there are many reasons to be skeptical of too much globalization such as energy considerations.
I think another interesting one is exchange rates.
One of the important concepts of MMT is the importance of having a flexible exchange rate to
have full power over your currency. This is fine as far as it goes but tends to put hard currencies
against soft currencies where a hard currency can be defined as one that has international authority/acceptance.
Having flexible exchange rates also opens up massive amounts of financial speculation relative
to fluctuations of these currencies against each other and trying to protect against these fluctuations.
""Keynes' proposal of the bancor was to put a barrier between national currencies, that is
to have a currency of account at the global level. Keynes warned that free trade, flexible exchange
rates and free movement of capital globally were incompatible with maintaining full employment
at the local level""
""Sufficiency provisioning also means that trade would be discouraged rather than encouraged.""
Local currencies can work very well locally to promote employment but can have trouble when
they reach out to get resources outside of their currency space especially if they have a soft
currency. Global sustainability programs need to take a closer look at how to overcome this sort
of social injustice. (Debt or Democracy)
As has already been pointed out so eloquently here in the comments section, economic nationalism
is not necessarily the preserve of the right, nor is it necessarily the same thing as nationalism.
In the UK the original, most vociferous objectors to EEC membership in the 70s (now the EU)
were traditionally the Left, on the basis that it would gradually erode labour rights and devalue
the cost of labour in the longer term. Got that completely wrong obviously .
In the same way that global trade has become synonymous with globalisation, the immigration
debate has been hijacked and cynically conflated with free movement of (mainly low cost, unskilled)
labour and race when they are all VERY different divisive issues.
The other point alluded to in the comments above is the nature of free trade generally. The
accepted (neoliberal) wisdom being that 'collateral damage' is unfortunate but inevitable, but
it is pretty much an unstoppable or uncontrollable force for the greater global good, and the
false dichotomy persists that you either embrace it fully or pull up all the drawbridges with
nothing in between.
One of the primary reasons that some competing sectors of some Western economies have done
so badly out of globalisation is that they have adhered to 'free market principles' whilst other
countries, particularly China, clearly have not with currency controls, domestic barriers to trade,
massive state subsidies, wage suppression etc
The China aspect is also fascinating when developed nations look at the uncomfortable 'morality
of global wealth distribution' often cited by proponents of globalisation as one of their wider
philanthropic goals. Bless 'em. What is clear is that highly populated China and most of its people,
from the bottom to the top, has been the primary beneficiaries of this global wealth redistribution,
but the rest of the developing world's poor clearly not quite so much.
The map on it's own, in terms of the English one time industrial Midlands & North West being
shown as an almost black hole, is in itself a kind of " Nuff Said ".
It is also apart from London, where the vast bulk of immigrants have settled.
The upcoming bye-election in Stoke, which could lead to U-Kip taking a once traditionally always
strong Labour seat, is right in the middle of that dark cloud.
The problem from the UK 's position, I suggest, is that autarky is not a viable proposition
so economic nationalism becomes a two-edged sword. Yes, of course, the UK can place restrictions
on imports and immigration but there will inevitably be retaliation and they will enter a game
of beggar my neighbour. The current government talks of becoming a beacon for free trade. If we
are heading to a more protectionist world, that can only end badly IMHO.
Unless we get some meaningful change in thinking on a global scale, I think we are heading
somewhere very dark whatever the relative tinkering with an essentially broken system.
The horse is long gone, leaving a huge pile of shit in it's stable.
As for what might happen, I do not know, but I have the impression that we are at the end of
a cycle.
This is quite interesting, but only part of the story. Interestingly the districts/provinces
suffering the most from the chinese import shock are usually densely populated industrial regions
of Europe. The electoral systems in Europe (I think all, but I did not check) usually do not weight
equally each district, favouring those less populated, more rural (which by the way tend to be
very conservative but not so nationalistic). These differences in vote weigthing may have somehow
masked the effect seen in this study if radical nationalistic rigth wing votes concentrate in
areas with lower weigthed value of votes. For instance, in Spain, the province of Soria is mostly
rural and certainly less impacted by chinese imports compared with, for instance, Madrid. But
1 vote in Soria weigths the same as 4 votes in Madrid in number of representatives in the congress.
This migth, in part, explain why in Spain, the radical rigth does not have the same power as in
Austria or the Netherlands. It intuitively fits the hypothesis of this study.
Nevertheless, similar processes can occur in rural areas. For instance, when Spain entered
the EU, french rural areas turned nationalistic against what they thougth could be a wave of agricultural
imports from Spain. Ok, agricultural globalization may have less impact in terms of vote numbers
in a given country but it still can be politically very influential. In fact spanish entry more
that 30 years ago could still be one of the forces behind Le Penism.
All this statistical math and yada yada to explain a rise in vote for radical right from 3%
in 1985 to 5% now on average? And only a 0.7% marginal boost if your the place really getting
hammmered by imports from China? If I'm reading it right, that is, while focusing on Figure 2.
The real "shock" no pun intended, is the vote totals arent a lot higher everywhere.
Then the Post concludes with reference to a "surge in support" - 3% to 5% or so over 30 years
is a surge? The line looks like a pretty steady rise over 3 decades.
Maybe I'm missing sommething here.
Also what is this thing they're callling an "Open World" of the past 30 years? And why is that
in danger from more balanced trade? It makes no sense. Even back in the 60s and 70s people could
go alll over the world for vacations. Or at least most places they coould go. If theh spent their
money they'd make friends. Greece even used to be a goood place people went and had fun on a beach.
I think this one is a situation of math runing amuck. Math running like a thousand horses over
a hill trampling every blade of grass into mud.
I bet the China factor is just a referent for an entire constellatio of forces that probably
don't lend themselves (no pun intended) partiicularly well to social science and principal component
analysis - as interesting as that is for those who are interested in that kind of thing (which
I am acctually).
Also, I wouldn't call this "free trade". Not that the authors do either, but trade means reciprocity
not having your livelihood smashed the like a pinata at Christmas with all your candy eaten by
your "fellow countrymen". I wouldn't call that "trade". It's something else.
Regarding your first point, it is a small effect but it is all due to the China imports impact,
you have to add the growth of these parties due to other reasons such as immigration to get the
full picture of their growth. Also I think the recent USA election was decided by smaller percentage
advantages in three States?
Globalisation is nothing but free trade extended to the entire world. Free trade is a tool
used to prevent competition. By flooding countries with our cheaper exports, they do not develop
the capacity to compete with us by making their own widgets. So, why are we shocked when those
other countries return the favor and when they get the upper hand, we respond in a protectionist
way? It looks to me that those countries who are now competing with us in electronics, automobiles,
etc. only got to develop those industries in their countries because of protectionism.
Refugees in great numbers are a symptom of globalization, especially economic refugees but
also political and environmental ones. This has strained the social order in many countries that
have accepted them in and it's one of the central issues that the so-called "right" is highlighting.
It is no surprise there has been an uproar over immigration policy in the US which is an issue
of class as much as foreign policy because of the disenfranchisement of large numbers of workers
on both sides of the equation - those who lost their jobs to outsourcing and those who emigrated
due to the lack of decent employment opportunities in their own countries.
We're seeing the tip of the iceberg. What will happen when the coming multiple environmental
calamities cause mass starvation and dislocation of coastal populations? Walls and military forces
can't deter hungry, desperate, and angry people.
The total reliance and gorging on fossil energy by western countries, especially the US, has
mandated military aggression to force compliance in many areas of the world. This has brought
a backlash of perpetual terrorism. We are living under a dysfunctional system ruled by sociopaths
whose extreme greed is leading to world war and environmental collapse.
Who created the REFUGEE PROBLEMS in the ME – WEST including USA,UK++
Obama's DRONE program kept BOMBING in SEVEN Countries killing innocents – children and women!
All in the name of fighting Terrorism. Billions of arms to sale Saudi Arabia! Wow!
Where were the Democrats and the Resistance and Women's march? Hypocrites!
Globalisation has caused a surge in support for nationalist and radical right political
platforms.
Just a reminder that nationalism doesn't have to be associated with the radical right. The left
is not required to reject it, especially when it can be understood as basically patriotism, expressed
as solidarity with all of your fellow citizens.
Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership seems to be a move in that direction.
Well, that may be true as far as Trump's motivations are concerned, but a major component (the
most important?) of the TPP was strong restraint of trade, a protectionist measure, by intellectual
property owners.
Yet, a return to protectionism is not likely to solve the problems of those who have lost
ground due to globalisation without appropriate compensation of its 'losers'
Japan has long been 'smart' protectionist, and this has helped prevent the 'loser' problem, in
part because Japan, being nationalist, makes it a very high priority to create/maintain a society
in which almost all Japanese are more or less middle class. So, it is a fact that protectionism
has been and can be associated with more egalitarian societies, in which there are few 'losers'
like we see in the West. But the U.S. and most Western countries have a long way to go if they
decide to make the effort to be more egalitarian. And, of course, protectionism alone is not enough
to make most of the losers into winners again. You'll need smart skills training, better education
all around, fewer low-skill immigrants, time, and, most of all strong and long-term commitment
to making full employment at good wages national priority number one.
and is bound to harm growth especially in emerging economies.
Growth has been week since the 2008, even though markets are as free as they've ever been. Growth
requires a lot more consumers with willingness and cash to spend on expensive, high-value-added
goods. So, besides the world finally escaping the effects of the 2008 financial crisis, exporting
countries need prosperous consumers either at home or abroad, and greater economic security. And
if a little bit of protectionism generates more consumer prosperity and economic stability, exporting
countries might benefit overall.
The world rather needs a more inclusive model of globalisation.
Well, yes, the world needs more inclusivity, but globalization doesn't need to be part of the
picture. Keep your eyes on the prize: inclusivity/equality, whether latched onto nationally, regionally,
'internationally' or globally, any which way is fine! But prioritization of globalization over
those two is likely a victory for more inequality, for more shoveling of our wealth up to the
ruling top 1%.
Twenty-First Century American Nationalism Needs to Be
Profoundly Cosmopolitan
The right pose--substantive and rhetorical--is to
recognize that, just as since 1620 the good American
nationalism has always held that people anywhere can elect to
become Americans by joining our utopian project here at home,
so in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries that good
American nationalism is one that puts global prosperity and
being a good neighbor and benevolent hegemon first....
== quote ==
...In it, Krugman attempts to account for the no-growth
economy by marshaling the stock-in-trade legerdemain of
academic economics: productivity, demographics, and labor
metrics. Krugman actually knows zip about what afflicts us
in the present disposition of things, namely the falling
energy-return-on-energy-investment in the oil industry,
which is approaching the point where the immense activity
of getting oil out of the ground won't be worth the cost
and trouble of doing it. And since most of the things we
do and produce in this economy are based on cheap oil -
with no reality-based prospect of replacing it with
so-called "renewables" or as yet undiscovered energy
rescue remedies - we can't generate enough wealth to
maintain anything close to our assumed standard of living.
We can't even generate enough wealth to pay the interest
on the debt we've racked up in order to hide our growing
energy predicament. And that, in a nutshell, is what will
blow up the financial system. And when that department of
the economy goes, the rest will follow.
... ... ...
So, on one side you have Trump and his trumpets and
trumpistas heralding the return of "greatness" (i.e. a
booming industrial economy of happy men with lunchboxes)
which is not going to happen; and on the other side you
have a claque of clueless technocrats who actually believe
they can "solve" the productivity problem with measures
that really only boil down to different kinds of
accounting fraud.
You also have an American public, and a mass media, who do
not question the premise of a massive "infrastructure"
spending project to re-boot the foundering economy. If you
ask what they mean by that, you will learn that they
uniformly see rebuilding our highways, bridges, tunnels,
and airports. Some rightly suspect that the money for that
is not there - or can only be summoned with more
accounting fraud (borrowing from our future). But on the
whole, most adults of all political stripes in this
country think we can and should do this, that it would be
a good thing.
And what is this infrastructure re-boot in the service
of? A living arrangement with no future. A matrix of
extreme car dependency that has zero chance of continuing
another decade. More WalMarts, Target stores, Taco Bells,
muffler shops, McHousing subdivisions, and other
accoutrement of our fast-zombifying mode of existence?
Isn't it obvious, even if you never heard of, or don't
understand, the oil quandary, that we have shot our wad
with all this? That we have to start down a different path
if we intend to remain human?
It's not hard to describe that waiting world, which
I've done in a bunch of recent books. We're going there
whether we like it or not. But we can make the journey to
it easier or harsher depending on how much we drag our
heels getting on with the job.
History is pretty unforgiving. Right now, the dynamic I
describe is propelling us toward a difficult reckoning,
which is very likely to manifest this spring as the
political ineptitude of Trump, and the antipathy of his
enemies, leaves us in a constitutional maelstrom at the
very moment when the financial system comes unglued. Look
for the debt ceiling debate and another Federal Reserve
interest rate hike to set off the latter. There may be yet
another converging layer of tribulation when we start
blaming all our problems on Russia, China, Mexico, or some
other patsy nation. It's already obvious that we can
depend on the Deep State to rev that up.
Revoking trade deals will not help American middle classes
The advent of global supply chains has changed production patterns in the US
by Larry Summers
FEBRUARY 5, 2017
Trade agreements have been central to American politics for some years. The idea that renegotiating
trade agreements will "make America great again" by substantially increasing job creation and economic
growth swept Donald Trump into office.
More broadly, the idea that past trade agreements have damaged the American middle class and that
the prospective Trans-Pacific Partnership would do further damage is now widely accepted in both
major US political parties.
As Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan once observed, participants in political debate are entitled
to their own opinions but not their own facts. The reality is that the impact of trade and globalisation
on wages is debatable and could be substantial. But the idea that the US trade agreements of the
past generation have impoverished to any significant extent is absurd.
There is a debate to be had about the impact of globalisation on middle class wages and inequality.
Increased imports have displaced jobs. Companies have been able to drive harder bargains with workers,
particularly in unionised sectors, because of the threat they can outsource. The advent of global
supply chains has changed production patterns in the US.
My judgment is that these effects are considerably smaller than the impacts of technological progress.
This is based on a variety of economic studies, experience in hypercompetitive Germany and the observation
that the proportion of American workers in manufacturing has been steadily declining for 75 years.
That said I acknowledge that global trends and new studies show that the impact of trade on wages
is much more pronounced than a decade ago.
But an assessment of the impact of trade on wages is very different than an assessment of trade
agreements. It is inconceivable that multilateral trade agreements, such as the North American Free
Trade Agreement, have had a meaningful impact on US wages and jobs for the simple reason that the
US market was almost completely open 40 years ago before entering into any of the controversial agreements.
American tariffs on Mexican goods, for example, averaged about 4 per cent before Nafta came into
force. China had what was then called "most favoured nation" trading status with the US before its
accession to the World Trade Organization and received the same access as other countries. Before
the Korea Free Trade Agreement, US tariffs on Korea averaged a paltry 2.8 per cent.
The irrelevance of trade agreements to import competition becomes obvious when one listens to
the main arguments against trade agreements. They rarely, if ever, take the form of saying we are
inappropriately taking down US trade barriers.
Rather the naysayers argue that different demands should be made on other countries during negotiations
- on issues including intellectual property, labour standards, dispute resolution or exchange rate
manipulation. I am sympathetic to the criticisms of TPP, but even if they were all correct they do
not justify the conclusion that signing the deal would increase the challenges facing the American
middle class.
The reason for the rise in US imports is not reduced trade barriers. Rather it is that emerging
markets are indeed emerging. They are growing in their economic potential because of successful economic
reforms and greater global integration.
These developments would have occurred with or without US trade pacts, though the agreements have
usually been an impetus to reform. Indeed, since the US does very little to reduce trade barriers
in our agreements, the impetus to reform is most of what foreign policymakers value in them along
with political connection to the US.
The truth too often denied by both sides in this debate is that incremental agreements like TPP
have been largely irrelevant to the fate of middle class workers. The real strategic choice Americans
face is whether the objective of their policies is to see the economies of the rest of the world
grow and prosper. Or, does the US want to keep the rest of the world from threatening it by slowing
global growth and walling off products and people?
Framed this way the solution appears obvious. A strategy of returning to the protectionism of
the past and seeking to thwart the growth of other nations is untenable and would likely lead to
a downward spiral in the global economy. The right approach is to maintain openness while finding
ways to help workers at home who are displaced by technical progress, trade or other challenges.
" The right approach is to maintain
openness while finding ways to help workers at home who are displaced by technical progress,
trade or other challenges."
People like Summers, DeLong, PGL and Krugman have been saying
this for 30 years ever since NAFTA was passed.
The voters no longer believe them. They're like the boy who cried wolf.
I would actually agree with the stance in general, if there
would be an actuall intention to help the affected
people/populations, but there is none. Retraining for yet
another job that doesn't exist (in sufficient volume so you
can realistically get it) is not help. It is just cover for
victim blaming - see we forgive you for choosing an incorrect
career, here is your next chance, don't blow that one too
(which we know "you will" as there are not enough jobs there
either).
Must-Read: Five things are going on with respect to
America's blue-, pink-, and--increasingly--white lower-middle
and middle-middle working classes. Three of them are real,
and two of them are fake:
Technology: It has--worldwide--greatly amplified
manufacturing labor productivity, accompanied by limited
demand for manufactured goods: few of us want more than one
full-sized refrigerator, and very very few of us want more
than two. That means that if you are hoping to be relatively
high up in the wage distribution by virtue of your position
as a hard-to-replace cog on a manufacturing assembly line,
you are increasingly out of luck. If you are hoping for high
blue-collar wages to lift your own via competition, you are
increasingly out of luck.
Legal and institutional bargaining power: The fact that
bargaining power has flowed to finance and the executive
suite and away from the shop- and assembly-floor is the
second biggest deal here. It could have been otherwise--this
is, primarily, a thing that has happened in English-speaking
countries. It has happened much less elsewhere. It could have
happened much less here.
Macro policy: Yes, the consequences of the Reagan deficits
were to cream midwestern manufacturing and destroy worker
bargaining power in export and import-competing industries.
Yes, the low-pressure economies of Volcker, late Greenspan,
and Bernanke wreaked immense damage. Any more questions?
Globalization: Globalization deepens the division of
labor, and does so in a way that is not harmful to
high-paying manufacturing jobs in the global north. The
high-paying manufacturing jobs that require skills and
expertise (as opposed to the lower-paying ones that just
require being in the right place at the right time with some
market power) are easier to create and hold on to if you can
be part of a globalized value chain than otherwise. This is
largely fake.
Trade agreements: This is a nothingburger: completely
fake.
As somebody who strongly believes that supply curves slope
up--are neither horizontal nor vertical--and that demand
curves slope down--are neither horizontal nor vertical--I
think that Larry Summers is misguided here when he talks
about how "companies have been able to drive harder bargains
with workers, particularly in unionised sectors, because of
the threat they can outsource." This was certainly true since
the 1950s with the move of American manufacturing to the
south, and the rise of deceptively-named "right-to-work"
laws. But the threat to outsource is zero-sum on a national
level: the balance of payments balances. Individual sectors
lose--and manufacturing workers have been big losers. But
that is, I think, only because of our macro policies. If we
were a normal global North manufacturing power--a Germany or
a Japan--exporting capital and running a currency policy that
did not privilege finance, he would not be talking a out how
"companies have been able to drive harder bargains with
workers, particularly in unionised sectors, because of the
threat they can outsource." He would be talking about how the
opportunity to participate in global value chains increases
the productivity of semi-skilled and skilled manufacturing
workers in the U.S.
Thus I think Larry conceded too much here. Blame macro
policy. Blame technology. Blame the conflict between the
market society's requirements that only property rights
matter and that everything pass a profitability test against
people's strong beliefs that even if they have no property
rights they have rights to stable communities, stable
industries, and stable occupations. But, to channel Pascal
Lamy, look not at the finger but at the moon here.
However, Larry is right on his main point: NAFTA really
ain't the problem:
Lawrence Summers: Revoking Trade Deals Will Not Help
American Middle Classes: "There is a debate to be had about
the impact of globalisation on middle class wages and
inequality...
For Delong to be right on trade, thousands of rust belt
politicians, journalists, and business leaders and a few
hundred thousand workers would have to be delusional.
He is
right in the sense that it is too late to revoke NAFTA, the
damage is done.
"Larry sees the coming of globalization as bringing with it a
sharp reduction in the market power of American blue-collar
workers in mass-production industries, and thus as exerting
significant downward pressure on middle class wages and
upward pressure on inequality. The live question, he thinks,
is how large and significant these pressures have been."
As
if this was natural and ordained by God. Can't argue with
economics.
It looks like there should strict external "moral"
constrains on economic activity, like they were most of human
history. For some activities which are now legal you can
spend life in jail even in rather relaxed 30th ( for example,
credit cards interest rates are usury rates, no question
about it)
All this mathiness junk and operating with unreliable and
politically fudged (as in employment numbers and GDP)
statistics (as in "There are three kinds of lies: lies,
damned lies, and statistics."
We already saw to what economic outcomes neoliberals have
led us. While neoliberal were eating the carcass of New Deal
things were not that bad.
Now it's over and they are in deep trouble. Election of
Trump is just the fist sign of troubles ahead. One swallow
does not a summer make.
The problem is that financial oligarchy does not want to
part with their illicit gains.
In the past this dilemma, especially in case Jewish
bankers, was resolved by killing some part and exiling
another part. It would be nice for our Masters of the
Universe to remember this historical fact.
"it is never good to pass up an opportunity to remind
readers that the rise in inequality since 1980 has been
something that those who made the Reagan Revolution hoped
to accomplish and are proud of.
Bargaining power has flowed to finance and the
executive suite and away from the shop- and
assembly-floor. Top tax rates have come way down. It could
have been otherwise--this is, primarily, a thing that has
happened in English-speaking countries. It has happened
much less elsewhere. It could have happened much less
here."
The rise in income inequality was promoted by the Reagan
revolution. That in many ways was its purpose. It is also the
agenda of Paul Ryan and his "A Better Way".
We used to know how to lower trade barriers and welcome
new technology and have the benefits accrue to all. We lost
our political will some 35 years ago. And electing Trump has
not exactly regained our old mojo.
Manufacturing, manufacturing, manufacturing. Everybody misses
the BRONTOSAURUS in the room. 4% of jobs gone from automation
and trade - half and half -- true. But, 50% of employees have
lost 10% of overall income -- out of the 20% of a couple of
generations back.
(This reminds me of comparing EITC's 1/2
1% redistribution with 45% of workers earning less than $15
an hour.)
Could 50% of the workforce squeeze 10% of income back out
of the 49% who take 70% (14% of their earnings!)? They sure
could if they could collectively agree not to show up for
work otherwise. Could if the 49% in turn could squeeze 10%
out of the 1% (the infamous one percent) who lately take 20%
of overall income -- up from 10% a couple of generations
back.
(Does the Chicago Bears quarterback really need $126
million for seven years -- up from to top NFL paid Joe
Namath's $600,000 [adjusted truly] a couple of generations
back?)
Mechanism? Ask Germany (ask Jimmy Hoffa).
* * * * * *
In case nobody thought about it -- I never thought about
until Trump -- it goes like this. The NLRA(a) was written in
1935 leaving blank the use criminal sanctions for muscling
the labor market. Even if it did specify jail time for union
busting it is extremely arguable that state penalties for
muscling ANY persons seeking to collectively bargain (not
just union organizers and joiners following fed procedure)
would overlap, not violate federal preemption.
It seems inarguable -- under long established First
Amendment right to organize collective bargaining -- that
federal preemption cannot force employees down an organizing
road that is unarguably impassable, because unenforceable.
Upshot: states may make union busting a felony --
hopefully backed by RICO for persistent violators.
6% union density is like 20/10 blood pressure. It starves
every other healthy process.
In 1967-68 was working the waterfront in SF. Saw the crews of
Stevedores and Longshoremen load the ships; on the docks,
down in the holds, using boom winches, forklifts, and muscle
(dangerous work). By 1970, containerization had replaced 90%
of them. And, it continues with computerization of storage
and loading of containers (something I worked on in 1975).
Remember the nephew in the 'Wire'? One day a week if he was
lucky. David Simon knew of what he wrote.
One of the Michael Moore movies (probably but not sure
whether about Flint) made the point rather explicitly -
former manufacturing workers retrained as law enforcement or
prison officers perhaps for employment in other states or
"dealing with" their former colleagues driven to crime or at
least into the arms of the law enforcement system.
"... There is no need to assume nefarious motives under neoliberalism. They are the essence of the system, especially among the financial oligarchy. Wolf eats wolf and "Greed is good!" is the most typical mentality. ..."
"... In some way, it is close to the Italian mafia mentality. The mentality of organized mob. They put themselves outside and above the society. ..."
You can point to the fact that Delong says it, and then the
goalposts will move ... and they will complain he hasn't said
it often enough, or loudly enough, or recently enough, or
something.
People determined to assume nefarious motives
will usually succeed: evidence, logic and common sense be
damned.
There is no need to assume nefarious motives under
neoliberalism. They are the essence of the system, especially
among the financial oligarchy. Wolf eats wolf and "Greed is
good!" is the most typical mentality.
In some way, it is close to the Italian mafia
mentality. The mentality of organized mob. They put
themselves outside and above the society.
...So my question for the degrowth community is whether declining investment is an occasion
for celebration? Does this mean that economic policy is actually getting something right?
Here's one answer I won't accept: we don't care about growth in general, just growth of bad
stuff, like fossil fuels, accumulation of waste, destruction of coastlines, etc. That isn't a
degrowth position. Everyone wants more of the good and less of the bad, however they define it.
I'm in favor of only toothsome pizza crusts and I'm dead set against the soggy kind, but that's
not the same as being on a diet.
This is a practical, policy-relevant question. There are many smart economists trying to understand
the investment slump so they can devise policies to turn it around. You'll notice this concern
is prominent in the writing on increasing industrial concentration, the shareholder value obsession,
globalization and outsourcing, and other topics. The goal of these researchers is to reform corporate
and market structure in order to restore a higher rate of investment, among other things. That
of course would tend to accelerate economic growth. So what's the degrowth position on all this?
Should economists be looking for additional measures to discourage investment?
Again, please don't tell me that it's just investment in "bads" that needs to be discouraged.
That's a given across the entire spectrum of economic rationality (which is admittedly somewhat
narrower than the political spectrum). In the aggregate, is it good that investment is trending
down?
My own view, as readers of this blog will know (see here and here), is that degrowth is a suicide
cult masquerading as a political position. I'm pretty sure that radically transforming our economy
to make it sustainable will involve a tremendous amount of investment and new production, and
it seems clear to me that boosting living standards through more and better consumption is both
politically and ethically essential. But I could be wrong. I would sincerely appreciate intelligent
arguments from the degrowth side.
[Asked and answered, sort of. Degrowth or beneficial degrowth is relative to what metrics (i.e.,
resources rather than capital) and realistically a far enough ways from where we are now to be
moot.]
I think this is too simplistic. There is (and has always been) a growing realization that more
is not always better. This insight is not uniform for any given geographic or socioeconomic population
group, but often informed by how one relates to the economic process (which correlates with age),
individually as well as at the peer group level.
When a larger group is exposed to a situation where the trappings of success are hard to obtain
(e.g. younger people coming out of school/college into a bad job market), or where there is an
appearance that new technology/gadgets may be initially exciting but don't really translate into
better quality of life or better effectiveness of work/activities ("productivity"), or even degrade
either (more typical for older people who are not seeing new gadgets/technologies for the first
time?), then rejection of whatever is proclaimed as "improvement" can become socially acceptable.
I'm also at the point where I don't really want new stuff, because my impression is that it
is generally not better than the previous edition, or if better, then not better in a write-home-about-it
way. And the realization many acquisitions create more liabilities than benefits in the long term
(for one thing, accumulation of junk and need to throw out "something" - which I may not really
want to throw out).
"The consequences of the Reagan deficits
were to cream midwestern manufacturing and destroy worker bargaining power in export and import-competing
industries. The switch from government surpluses to deficits under George W. Bush had much the same
consequences. "
Where's carters volcker ?
And the bit about going from surplus to deficit
Is utterly undeveloped here
Lots of Rubinte lice crawling around under that mossy rock
"Lots of Rubinte lice crawling around under that mossy rock"
Which PGL always fails to mention, dishonest neoliberal that he is.
Think Harder? Let's study
the effects of Lincoln's sky high tariffs? Or East Asian Mercantilism? Globalization not a
natural disaster :
,
February 20, 2017 at
02:54 PM
There was no coming of "globalization"
as if it were a hurricane.
US financial sector elites pushed pro-trade deficit policies so
that the US would have huge surpluses on the capital accounts, boosting asset prices and financial
sector wealth.
Globalization for East Asia means dramatically undervalued currencies and taking over every
and all tradable goods sectors.
The US can return to wealth but only if it adopts Abraham Lincoln-inspired strict protectionism
- sky high tariffs to fund industrial and infrastructure development and nurture infant industries.
Think harder? Why don't economists stop lying and stop shilling for the big banks? THEN and
only then can we speak of "alternative facts".
President Trump should draw on Lincoln's example for inspiration...
The consequences of the Reagan
deficits were to cream midwestern manufacturing and destroy worker bargaining power in export
and import-competing industries....
People of privilege will always risk
their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage. Intellectual
myopia, often called stupidity, is no doubt a reason. But the privileged also feel that their privileges,
however egregious they may seem to others, are a solemn, basic, God-given right. The sensitivity
of the poor to injustice is a trivial thing compared with that of the rich.
-John Kenneth Galbraith
The Age of Uncertainty (1977)
Chapter 1, p. 22
"People of privilege will always
risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any material part of their advantage."
I would say this is rational. Surrendering advantages will generally weaken your position and
thus increase the risk of complete destruction or being stripped of further advantages. Also
quite often members of the elite, individually or as a group, have likely acted in ways that
enraged their opponents to the point that they will likely not stop at just stripping advantages
until a "reasonable" point, but indeed seek complete destruction. History is full of things
like guillotines and hunting down and murder or lifelong imprisonment of all family members
(who have not been plausibly disavowed or disassociated while the old regime was still comfortably
in power).
Of course in the past, rulers
and elites were often dethroned by other elites, with popular uprisings only used as a temporary
tool. In any case, once it gets close to that point, it's an all or nothing fight for either
side.
There have been examples where
elites have ceded advantages in a peaceful transition. But that usually happen in a context
where there had already been gradual transitions to shared/broader power in the past (generally
not peaceful in the initial stages). The UK and its royals/nobility are an obvious example,
probably also Scandinavia which are mostly still nominally kingdoms (?), or the royal family
and former or still existing nobility has influence but officially only a figurehead role.
The transition to democracy happened largely peacefully in the past 1-2 centuries, prior to
that not so much.
"Surrendering advantages will
generally weaken your position and thus increase the risk of complete destruction or being
stripped of further advantages."
This is not a chess party. Sometimes people kill each other
if differences are irreconcilable. In 1917 a lot of Russian bankers were simply killed.
"... Rep. Alcee Hastings has sponsored a bill to authorize President Trump to attack Iran. ..."
"... Alcee Hastings is better known to the public as a federal judge who was impeached for bribery
and for a series of ethical lapses as a Congressman than for his legislative record. The 2012 Family
Affairs report by the Committee for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington found that Hastings paid
his partner, Patricia Williams, $622,000 to serve as his deputy district director from 2007 to 2010,
the largest amount paid to a family member by any Member of Congress in the report. ..."
"... Alcee Hastings's voting record on war and peace issues has been about average for a Democrat.
He voted against the 2002 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) on Iraq, and his 79 percent
lifetime Peace Action score is the highest among current House members from Florida, although Alan Grayson's
was higher. ..."
"... In the new Republican-led Congress, with the bombastic and unpredictable Donald Trump in the
White House, Hastings's bill could actually serve as a blank check for war on Iran, and it is carefully
worded to be exactly that. It authorizes the open-ended use of force against Iran with no limits on
the scale or duration of the war. The only sense in which the bill meets the requirements of the War
Powers Act is that it stipulates that it does so. Otherwise it entirely surrenders Congress's constitutional
authority for any decision over war with Iran to the President, requiring only that he report to Congress
on the war once every 60 days. ..."
"... The wording of Hastings's bill perpetuates dangerous myths about the nature of Iran's nuclear
program that have been thoroughly investigated and debunked after decades of intense scrutiny by experts,
from the U.S. intelligence community to the International Atomic Energy Association (IAEA). ..."
"... As former IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei explained in his book, The Age of Deception: Nuclear
Diplomacy in Treacherous Times, the IAEA has never found any real evidence of nuclear weapons research
or development in Iran, any more than in Iraq in 2003, the last time such myths were abused to launch
our country into a devastating and disastrous war. ..."
"... In Manufactured Crisis: the Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare, investigative journalist
Gareth Porter meticulously examined the suspected evidence of nuclear weapons activity in Iran. He explored
the reality behind every claim and explained how the deep-seated mistrust in U.S.-Iran relations gave
rise to misinterpretations of Iran's scientific research and led Iran to shroud legitimate civilian
research in secrecy. This climate of hostility and dangerous worst-case assumptions even led to the
assassination of four innocent Iranian scientists by alleged Israeli agents. ..."
"... The discredited myth of an Iranian "nuclear weapons program" was perpetuated throughout the
2016 election campaign by candidates of both parties, but Hillary Clinton was particularly strident
in claiming credit for neutralizing Iran's imaginary nuclear weapons program. ..."
"... President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry also reinforced a false narrative that the
"dual-track" approach of Obama's first term, escalating sanctions and threats of war at the same time
as holding diplomatic negotiations, "brought Iran to the table." This was utterly false. Threats and
sanctions served only to undermine diplomacy, strengthen hard-liners on both sides and push Iran into
building 20,000 centrifuges to supply its civilian nuclear program with enriched uranium, as documented
in Trita Parsi's book, A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama's Diplomacy With Iran. ..."
"... When Brazil and Turkey persuaded Iran to accept the terms of an agreement proposed by the U.S.
a few months earlier, the U.S. responded by rejecting its own proposal. By then the main U.S. goal was
to ratchet up sanctions at the U.N., which this diplomatic success would have undermined. ..."
"... Trita Parsi explained that this was only one of many ways in which the two tracks of Obama's
"dual-track" approach were hopelessly at odds with each other. Only once Clinton was replaced by John
Kerry at the State Department did serious diplomacy displace brinksmanship and ever-rising tensions.
..."
"... Rand Paul: If John McCain Were In Charge, U.S. 'Would Be In Perpetual War' "John McCain is
the guy that has advocated for war everywhere." ..."
"... How many wars are enough? ..."
"... That begs the question "What's Rand Paul's definition of perpetual war?" We've been at war
since 2003. There's no end in sight. That seems like "perpetual" to me. Do they need to be bigger wars
or for there to be more of them in order to meet Paul's threshold for perpetual? ..."
"... 'Know neither your enemy nor yourself', is how US got into this predicament. How many places
has the CIA 'organized' to such good effect? Most effectively with Jihadis grown from Afghanistan reorganized
in Syria over nearly 40 years. ..."
"... What are you who calls the 'enemy' sinners when your country out does the 'enemy' in war crime
across the world? ..."
"... I have never seen a ranking federal bureaucrat do something illegal by accident. ..."
"... Or the faux security services who found yellow cake that don't exist found GOP spies that do
not exist. ..."
Exclusive: The Democrats' rush to rebrand themselves as super-hawks is perhaps best illustrated
by the once-dovish Rep. Alcee Hastings proposing stand-by authorization for the President to attack
Iran, reports Nicolas J S Davies.
By Nicolas J S Davies
Rep. Alcee Hastings has sponsored a bill to authorize President Trump to attack Iran.
Hastings reintroduced H J Res 10, the "Authorization of Use of Force Against Iran Resolution"
on Jan. 3, the first day of the new Congress after President Trump's election.
Hastings's bill has come as a shock to constituents and people who have followed his career
as a 13-term Democratic Member of Congress from South Florida. Miami Beach resident Michael Gruener
called Hastings's bill, "extraordinarily dangerous," and asked, "Does Hastings even consider to
whom he is giving this authorization?"
Fritzie Gaccione, the editor of the South Florida Progressive Bulletin noted that Iran is complying
with the 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) and expressed amazement that Hastings
has reintroduced this bill at a moment when the stakes are so high and Trump's intentions so unclear.
"How can Hastings hand this opportunity to Trump?" she asked. "Trump shouldn't be trusted with
toy soldiers, let alone the American military."
Speculation by people in South Florida as to why Alcee Hastings has sponsored such a dangerous
bill reflect two general themes. One is that he is paying undue attention to the pro-Israel groups
who raised 10 percent of his coded campaign contributions for the 2016 election. The other is
that, at the age of 80, he seems to be carrying water for the pay-to-play Clinton wing of the
Democratic Party as part of some kind of retirement plan.
Alcee Hastings is better known to the public as a federal judge who was impeached for bribery
and for a series of ethical lapses as a Congressman than for his legislative record. The 2012
Family Affairs report by the Committee for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington found that
Hastings paid his partner, Patricia Williams, $622,000 to serve as his deputy district director
from 2007 to 2010, the largest amount paid to a family member by any Member of Congress in the
report.
But Hastings sits in one of the 25 safest Democratic seats in the House and does not seem to
have ever faced a serious challenge from a Democratic primary opponent or a Republican.
Alcee Hastings's voting record on war and peace issues has been about average for a Democrat.
He voted against the 2002 Authorization for the Use of Military Force (AUMF) on Iraq, and his
79 percent lifetime Peace Action score is the highest among current House members from Florida,
although Alan Grayson's was higher.
Hastings voted against the bill to approve the JCPOA or nuclear agreement with Iran and first
introduced his AUMF bill in 2015. With the approval of the JCPOA and Obama's solid commitment
to it, Hastings's bill seemed like a symbolic act that posed little danger – until now.
In the new Republican-led Congress, with the bombastic and unpredictable Donald Trump in
the White House, Hastings's bill could actually serve as a blank check for war on Iran, and it
is carefully worded to be exactly that. It authorizes the open-ended use of force against Iran
with no limits on the scale or duration of the war. The only sense in which the bill meets the
requirements of the War Powers Act is that it stipulates that it does so. Otherwise it entirely
surrenders Congress's constitutional authority for any decision over war with Iran to the President,
requiring only that he report to Congress on the war once every 60 days.
Dangerous Myths
The wording of Hastings's bill perpetuates dangerous myths about the nature of Iran's nuclear
program that have been thoroughly investigated and debunked after decades of intense scrutiny
by experts, from the U.S. intelligence community to the International Atomic Energy Association
(IAEA).
As former IAEA director Mohamed ElBaradei explained in his book, The Age of Deception:
Nuclear Diplomacy in Treacherous Times, the IAEA has never found any real evidence of nuclear
weapons research or development in Iran, any more than in Iraq in 2003, the last time such myths
were abused to launch our country into a devastating and disastrous war.
In Manufactured Crisis: the Untold Story of the Iran Nuclear Scare, investigative journalist
Gareth Porter meticulously examined the suspected evidence of nuclear weapons activity in Iran.
He explored the reality behind every claim and explained how the deep-seated mistrust in U.S.-Iran
relations gave rise to misinterpretations of Iran's scientific research and led Iran to shroud
legitimate civilian research in secrecy. This climate of hostility and dangerous worst-case assumptions
even led to the assassination of four innocent Iranian scientists by alleged Israeli agents.
The discredited myth of an Iranian "nuclear weapons program" was perpetuated throughout
the 2016 election campaign by candidates of both parties, but Hillary Clinton was particularly
strident in claiming credit for neutralizing Iran's imaginary nuclear weapons program.
President Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry also reinforced a false narrative that
the "dual-track" approach of Obama's first term, escalating sanctions and threats of war at the
same time as holding diplomatic negotiations, "brought Iran to the table." This was utterly false.
Threats and sanctions served only to undermine diplomacy, strengthen hard-liners on both sides
and push Iran into building 20,000 centrifuges to supply its civilian nuclear program with enriched
uranium, as documented in Trita Parsi's book, A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama's Diplomacy With
Iran.
A former hostage at the U.S. Embassy in Tehran who rose to be a senior officer on the Iran
desk at the State Department told Parsi that the main obstacle to diplomacy with Iran during Obama's
first term was the U.S. refusal to "take 'Yes' for an answer."
When Brazil and Turkey persuaded Iran to accept the terms of an agreement proposed by the
U.S. a few months earlier, the U.S. responded by rejecting its own proposal. By then the main
U.S. goal was to ratchet up sanctions at the U.N., which this diplomatic success would have undermined.
Trita Parsi explained that this was only one of many ways in which the two tracks of Obama's
"dual-track" approach were hopelessly at odds with each other. Only once Clinton was replaced
by John Kerry at the State Department did serious diplomacy displace brinksmanship and ever-rising
tensions.
That begs the question "What's Rand Paul's definition of perpetual war?" We've been at war
since 2003. There's no end in sight. That seems like "perpetual" to me. Do they need to be bigger
wars or for there to be more of them in order to meet Paul's threshold for perpetual?
'Know neither your enemy nor yourself', is how US got into this predicament. How many places
has the CIA 'organized' to such good effect? Most effectively with Jihadis grown from Afghanistan
reorganized in Syria over nearly 40 years.
What are you who calls the 'enemy' sinners when your country out does the 'enemy' in war
crime across the world?
I don't think liberals are going to establish a committee on un-American activities or blackball
people.
On the other hand, I do think that some people would publish things like Robert Parry's article
because they don't like sunshine shining on their activities.
a vociferous campaign against alleged communists in the US government and other institutions
carried out under Senator Joseph McCarthy in the period 1950–54. Many of the accused were blacklisted
or lost their jobs, although most did not in fact belong to the Communist Party.
k has TDS, cognitive dissonance, everything else is confirmation bias leading from a severe case
of self pity over the neolibs' Clinton losing and missing the chance to experience WW III over
Putin.
"... Exclusive: Democrats, liberals and media pundits – in their rush to take down President Trump – are pushing a New McCarthyism aimed at Americans who have talked to Russians, risking a new witch hunt. ..."
"... As Democrats compete to become the new War Party – pushing for a dangerous confrontation with nuclear-armed Russia – some constituents are objecting, as Mike Madden did in a letter to Sen. Amy Klobuchar. ..."
Exclusive: Democrats, liberals and media pundits – in
their rush to take down President Trump – are pushing a New
McCarthyism aimed at Americans who have talked to Russians,
risking a new witch hunt.
France: Another Ghastly Presidential Election Campaign;
the Deep State Rises to the Surface
by Diana Johnstone
As if the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign hadn't
been horrendous enough, here comes another one: in France.
The system in France is very different, with multiple
candidates in two rounds, most of them highly articulate, who
often even discuss real issues. Free television time reduces
the influence of big money. The first round on April 23 will
select the two finalists for the May 7 runoff, allowing for
much greater choice than in the United States.
But monkey see, monkey do, and the mainstream political
class wants to mimic the ways of the Empire, even echoing the
theme that dominated the 2016 show across the Atlantic: the
evil Russians are messing with our wonderful democracy.
The aping of the U.S. system began with "primaries" held
by the two main governing parties which obviously aspire to
establish themselves as the equivalent of American Democrats
and Republicans in a two-party system. The right-wing party
of former president Nicolas Sarkozy has already renamed
itself Les Républicains and the so-called Socialist Party
leaders are just waiting for the proper occasion to call
themselves Les Démocrates. But as things are going, neither
one of them may come out ahead this time.
As Democrats compete to become the new War Party –
pushing for a dangerous confrontation with nuclear-armed
Russia – some constituents are objecting, as Mike Madden did
in a letter to Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
From Mike Madden (of St. Paul, Minnesota)
Dear Senator Klobuchar, I write with concern over
statements you have made recently regarding Russia.
These statements have been made both at home and abroad,
and they involve two issues; the alleged Russian hack of the
presidential election and Russia's actions in the aftermath
of the February 22, 2014 coup in Kiev.
U.S. intelligence services allege that President Vladimir
Putin ordered an influence campaign to denigrate Hillary
Clinton and help elect Donald Trump. The campaign is
purported to include the production of fake news,
cyber-trolling, and propaganda from Russian state-owned
media. It is also alleged that Russia hacked the email
accounts of the Democratic National Committee and Clinton
campaign chair John Podesta, subsequently providing the
emails to WikiLeaks.
Despite calls from many quarters, the intelligence
services have not provided the public with any proof.
Instead, Americans are expected to blindly trust these
services with a long history of failure. Additionally, the
former Director of National Intelligence, James Clapper, and
the former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency, John
Brennan, have both been known to lie to the public and to
Congress, Mr. Clapper doing so under oath.
Meanwhile, WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange maintains the
emails did not come from Russia (or any other state actor)
and his organization has an unblemished record of revealing
accurate information in the public interest that would
otherwise remain hidden. While responsible journalists
continue to use the word 'alleged' to describe the
accusations, Republicans with an ax to grind against Russia,
and Democrats wishing to distract from their own failings in
the campaign, refer to them as fact. Indeed, on the Amy in
the News page of your own website, Jordain Carney of The Hill
refers to the Russian meddling as "alleged".
A congressional commission to investigate the alleged
Russian hacking is not necessary. Even if all the allegations
are true, they are altogether common occurrences, and they
certainly don't rise to the level of "an act of aggression",
"an existential threat to our way of life", or "an attack on
the American people" as various Democratic officials have
characterized them. Republican Senator John McCain went full
monty and called the alleged meddling "an act of war".
Joining War Hawks
It is of concern that you would join Senator McCain and
the equally belligerent Senator Lindsey Graham on a tour of
Russian provocation through the Baltics, Ukraine, Georgia,
and Montenegro. The announcement of your trip (December 28,
2016) on the News Releases page of your website renewed the
unproven claim of "Russian interference in our recent
election". It also claimed that the countries you were
visiting were facing "Russian aggression" and that "Russia
illegally annexed Crimea".
It is unfortunate that these claims have become truisms by
sheer repetition rather than careful examination of the
facts. Russia has not invaded eastern Ukraine. There are no
regular units of the Russian military in the breakaway
provinces, nor has Russia launched any air strikes from its
territory. It has sent weapons and other provisions to the
Ukrainian forces seeking autonomy from Kiev, and there are
most certainly Russian volunteers operating in Ukraine.
However regrettable, it must be remembered that the unrest
was precipitated by the February 22, 2014 overthrow of the
democratically elected president Viktor Yanukovych which,
speaking of meddling, was assisted by U.S. State Department,
other American government agencies, and one Senator John
McCain. The subsequent military and paramilitary operations
launched by the coup government against the People's
Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk were described by President
Putin as "uncontrolled crime" spreading into the south and
east of the country. In American parlance, both the interim
coup government in Kiev and the current government of
President Petro Poroshenko have engaged in "killing their own
people".
President Trump has an almost unprecedented opportunity to reshape the key personnel and legal
basis of the Federal Reserve in the next 12 months, essentially rebuilding the most important
economic organisation in the world in his own image, if he so chooses.
The President may be able to appoint five or even six members to the seven-person Board of
Governors within 12 months, including the Chair, Vice Chair for monetary policy, and a new Vice
Chair for banking supervision. He may also be able to sign into law a bill that alters aspects
of the Fed's operating procedures and accountability to Congress, based on a bill passed in 2015
by the House of Representatives.
Not surprisingly, investors are beginning to eye these changes with some trepidation.
Some observers fear that the President will fill the Fed with his cronies, ready to monetise
the budget deficit if that should prove politically convenient. Others fear the opposite, believing
that the new appointments will result in monetary policy being handed over to a policy rule (like
the Taylor Rule) that will lead to much higher interest rates in the relatively near future. Still
others think that the most important outcome will be a deregulation of the banking system that
results in much easier credit availability, with increased dangers of asset bubbles and economic
overheating.
It is not difficult to see how this process could work out very badly indeed. But, at present,
I am optimistic that a modicum of sense will prevail.
During the election campaign, Trump was fairly consistent in calling for a Republican to replace
Janet Yellen as Chair in February 2018, and for bank credit to be made more readily available
to corporate America, especially to small companies. On the setting of interest rates, he has
been inconsistent, and on rules-based monetary policy he has been largely silent. Meanwhile, Republicans
in Congress seem focused on deregulation of the banking sector, with the partial removal of Dodd
Frank, and a rules-based monetary policy mandate, with audits of the Fed by the GAO.
Fortunately, there does not seem to be any Republican support for using the Fed balance sheet
to support inflationary financing of the fiscal deficit. Although that might come later, it will
be hard to impose on the Fed once the appointments and institutional changes have been implemented
in the next 12 months. After that, the new regime will be relatively free to operate under the
new arrangements. A lurch towards inflationary populism is therefore not high on the list of worries
at present.
The first test for the administration will probably be the nomination of the new Vice Chair
for Supervision, a post left unfilled by President Obama, though the functions have been undertaken
by the now departing Daniel Tarullo. It has been reported that Gary Cohn and Treasury Secretary
Steven Mnuchin have been actively engaged in picking the nominee, which is very reassuring since
they are likely to select an impressive professional who is fit to hold the most important regulatory
post in America.
David Nason, identified as the front runner, certainly fits that bill. He has been strongly
supported by Hank Paulson, his former boss at Treasury, and that support might influence Cohn
and Mnuchin, both of whom, like Paulson, are Goldman Sachs alumni. The nomination of someone like
Nason would calm concerns about the entire process.
Donald Trump has also been talking about giving the job to John Allison, a libertarian who
admires the gold standard and doubts whether the Fed should even be setting interest rates. He
has strong academic and business credentials, with coherent views about the capital requirements
and regulation of the banks, but the markets would worry about the unpredictable consequences
his appointment might have for monetary policy.
Although an important litmus test, the appointment of the Vice Chair on supervision pales into
insignificance compared to the probable decision to replace Janet Yellen and Stanley Fischer in
the two top slots next year. These appointments are not yet on the political agenda but the markets
are already thinking about what they may portend for monetary policy after 2017. After all, unless
reconfirmed, Yellen and Fischer will soon be viewed as lame ducks.
The administration can turn to a lengthy list of respected, mainstream macro-economists with
broad affiliation to the Republicans: John Taylor, Greg Mankiw, Glen Hubbard and many others.
There is another list of former Fed officials who would fit the bill, including Kevin Warsh and
Richard Fisher. Then there is a very long list of business people or bankers that might be considered
appropriate, some of whom could unfortunately be portrayed as Trump "cronies". Finally, there
are some "Austrian" economists, a school that has apparently influenced Vice President Pence.
An "Austrian" candidate would certainly alarm the markets. Assuming that is avoided, investors
will be interested in a couple of issues.
Where does the new leadership sit on the divide between economist and non economist? The last
four Fed Chairs have all been clearly on the economist side of the line, and because they have
all bought into the Fed's economic orthodoxy, their actions have been considered somewhat predictable
by the markets. A business person or banker might be less predictable, at least initially, and
more prone to shake up the Fed's orthodoxies, for good or ill.
The second question will be whether the new team is supportive of rule-based monetary policy,
with GAO audits. In recent years, the House of Representatives has tried on several occasions
to bring forward legislation that would require the FOMC to establish an appropriate rule for
setting interest rates and then explain to Congress why it had deviated from the rule in any future
decisions. This would clearly shift the bias of policy making somewhat away from discretion, especially
if a "rules guru" like John Taylor, or one of his academic supporters (listed here), becomes Chair.
The possibility of Congress forcibly imposing a rules-based regime is being taken increasingly
seriously inside the present Board, which has followed the Fed tradition in strongly preferring
discretion to the rigidity of formal algorithms, even if they are selected by the Fed itself.
Janet Yellen, in her Congressional testimony last week, was unusually explicit about the adverse
consequences, as she saw them, of adopting the Taylor Rule. She said this would require interest
rates to rise to 3.5-4.0 per cent, leading to lower growth and higher unemployment.
Stanley Fischer has also weighed in, suggesting that the Taylor Rule would have resulted in
a premature tightening in monetary policy after 2011 (see Appendix below). But a new law similar
to the bill passed by the House in 2015 would allow them plenty of scope to deviate from the rule
if they so choose.
How will the Fed emerge from these potential shocks? The organisation has an extraordinarily
strong and much admired culture, which will be hard for Trump to shake, even if he wanted to.
All his nominations will be reviewed internally by Cohn and Mnuchin, and externally by the Senate.
My guess is that the institution will survive largely unscathed, albeit with onerous regulation
of bank credit, and some increased role for specified monetary rules, with formal reporting on
these rules to Congress. Compared to the present regime, this may lead to higher, rather than
lower, interest rates.
The current Fed Board will (rightly) try to minimise any restriction on their discretion and
independence. But in practice the likely new framework would not represent much of a threat to
the sensible conduct of monetary policy in President Trump's term.
I expect that if you look at the pre-bellum South, there will
be plenty of examples of stagnant wages, low interest
rates...
In Mexico, wages never rose regardless of monetary
policy.
The point that I've been making for a while: despite a few
progressive economists delusions for rapid economic growth to
tighten wages, it won't happen for the following reasons.
1) most employers will just say 'no,' probably encouraged
centrally by the US Chamber of Commerce and other industry
associations. Collusion? You bet.
2) employers will just move jobs abroad, where there's
plenty of slack. Flexible labor markets has been one of the
big goals of globalization, promoted by the usual suspects
including 'librul' economists like Krugman.
3) immigration, which will be temporarily constrained as
Trump deports people, but will ultimately be resumed as
employers demand cheap, malleable labor.
I disagree. It happened in late 90s. The ideas you mention
are factors, including the decline of unions.
What has
happened in recent decades is that asset bubbles - like the
dot.com and housing bubbles - have popped sending a high
pressure economy into a low pressure one with higher
unemployment.
Neoliberal economists often talk about "flexible labor
markets" as desirable but I don't think Krugman ever has.
Maybe he has in a roundabout, indirect way.
Fed funds
rates were consistently about double the rate of inflation.
The fact that the economy boomed and wages increased was due
to the tech boom--an unrepeatable anomaly. The Fed and
Clinton administration unsuccessfully attempted to stifle it
with high rates and budget balancing.
To make sure that wages never rose again, Clinton signed
China PNTR, granting China access to WTO, ushering in the
great sucking sound of jobs going to China. Krugman cheered.
"Fed funds rates were consistently about double the rate
of inflation."
That doesn't matter. What matters is if they were
tightening or loosening. Where they reducing access to credit
or expanding it.
The real history is that Democrats on the FOMC wanted to
raise rates - as Dean Baker has discussed.
Greenspan decided not to raise rates for various reasons
and unemployment stayed low at around 4 percent with wages
sharing in productivity gains until the Dot.com stock bubble
popped.
I see no reason why you should believe labor markets will
never get tight again and that even if they do it won't lead
to increased worker bargaining power and higher wages.
There are numerous reasons why wages won't increase even if
labor markets tighten...you just don't want to acknowledge
the nefarious consequences of neoliberal policies: business
collusion, offshoring, immigration, and the tax system's
preference for returns of returns to capital over wages,
which preferences technology.
The real interest rate was around 2.5% per your own argument
which was a lot lower than real rates in the 1980's. So by
any reasonable standard - we did have easy money.
"Another round of tax and regulatory giveaways can create a
short-term boom," as part of the race to the bottom for
wages...IOW Republicans and their Democratic allies will have
succeeded when American wages are about the same as wages in
China or Mexico. But, per their logic, then jobs will be
plentiful because there will be no need to off-shore.
Yep...slavery is the most direct method of keeping wages low.
The policies I outlined--monopsony, offshoring, and
immigration--are all a fall back, to be used when industry
can't use their best policy.
If the neoliberal elite can't part with at least a small part
of their privileges, the political destabilization will
continue and they might lose everything.
"People of privilege will always risk their complete
destruction rather than surrender any material part of their
advantage." -- John Kenneth Galbraith
You may know that JK Galbraith served on the US' evaluation
of strategic bombings effect in WW II.
He is one of the
minority whose opinion was suppressed by the military
industry complex which concluded outside the A bomb no
relation to bombing and victory was proven, including both
industry output and energy production in Germany.
Allied bombing did kill a lot of civilians, which if
Germans or Japan had won bomber commanders would have been
hanged.
"...the political destabilization will continue and they
might lose everything."
Or they might find a way to end the
political destabilization. You know, we're not arresting you,
we just want to know, in the war on Muslim terrorists and
Mexican criminals, are you with us or against us? You'd be
surprised (or maybe you wouldn't!) how the question is enough
to quiet everybody down.
"... Free trade always and everywhere leads to poverty. The US must return to Lincoln's protectionist tariff regime if it wants to recovery the prosperity Krugman and co. helped destroy in the free trade "globalization" period from 1973 to January 20, 2017. ..."
"... It is easier said then done. Many US companies now depends on foreign manufacturing and foreign markets. The train has left the station. ..."
"... Careful actions might help to change the situation for better, but any abrupt or reckless action will definitely make the current situation worse, as employment in the USA now depends on employment in Mexico like one auto part manufacturer recently explained to Trump: you institute tariffs -- we lay off the US workers, because we have no other option. ..."
Arrogant economists? Yes - the US may not have much, but it
is overflowing with arrogant economists.
A trillion dollar goods trade deficit that persists year
after year? A wealthy country stripped of its manufacturing
and turned into a debtor nation thanks to economists refusing
to bother with economic history that could not be more clear.
Free trade always and everywhere leads to poverty. The
US must return to Lincoln's protectionist tariff regime if it
wants to recovery the prosperity Krugman and co. helped
destroy in the free trade "globalization" period from 1973 to
January 20, 2017.
Trump should revive Lincoln protectionism - then he will
rightfully take his place among the greats.
"Trump should revive Lincoln protectionism - then he
will rightfully take his place among the greats."
It is easier said then done. Many US companies now
depends on foreign manufacturing and foreign markets. The
train has left the station.
Careful actions might help to change the situation for
better, but any abrupt or reckless action will definitely
make the current situation worse, as employment in the USA
now depends on employment in Mexico like one auto part
manufacturer recently explained to Trump: you institute
tariffs -- we lay off the US workers, because we have no
other option.
Are you willing "To kill the Goose That Laid the Golden
Eggs". Paradoxically this idiom means an unprofitable action
motivated by greed
The Nostalgia of Trump: Remembering the days when birds fell from the sky from the polluted air in L.A., When the Cuyahoga
River caught fire in Cleveland, death from black lung desease, death from white lung desease, death by crushing, ...
I don't ever see nostalgia for Trump. I wish to see him expunged from the Nation's as quickly as possible.
I'm not sure what any of that has to do with nostalgia for Trump.
Quite a while back Paine (who seems to be back here) characterized contemporary Republicans as "the party of a better
yesterday". This refers to many people's impression that when they were younger, at least looking back things were more
hopeful and remembered quality of life better. This is independent from the things you mentioned. In my own observation
the same phenomenon could be observed in prior generations of family and their acquaintances that experienced in various
degrees WW1 and WW2 and the postwar fallouts. Life had always been better when they were young, war or not.
As by most other generations apparently - I don't think this is anything specific to the boomers. By credible accounts
the Greeks were already complaining about "kids these days" a few millenia ago. "They are so not like 'we' used to be
- no merit and all depravity." How could society possibly continue to exist with this unfit generation having responsibility?
The difference between now and the pre-internet era is that now anybody and everybody can take a dump on current and
previous generations, and things in general, at the cost of next to nothing.
One would think that a Berkeley Prof would be better at
arithmetic, or counting. In the early days, companies did
indeed create tech bureaucracies that offset any gains in
reduction of work force, say back in the 70s, maybe 80s.
Today, these groups number in the tens. Point being, these
are indeed middle class jobs, just no where near the number
of jobs replaced.
Many working- and middle-class Americans believe that
free-trade agreements are why their incomes have stagnated
over the past two decades. So Trump intends to provide them
with "protection" by putting protectionists in charge.
But
Trump and his triumvirate have misdiagnosed the problem.
While globalization is an important factor in the hollowing
out of the middle class, so, too, is automation.
Trump and his team are missing a simple point:
twenty-first-century globalization is knowledge-led, not
trade-led. Radically reduced communication costs have enabled
US firms to move production to lower-wage countries.
Meanwhile, to keep their production processes synced, firms
have also offshored much of their technical, marketing, and
managerial knowhow. This "knowledge offshoring" is what has
really changed the game for American workers.
The information revolution changed the world in ways that
tariffs cannot reverse. With US workers already competing
against robots at home, and against low-wage workers abroad,
disrupting imports will just create more jobs for robots.
Trump should be protecting individual workers, not
individual jobs. The processes of twenty-first-century
globalization are too sudden, unpredictable, and
uncontrollable to rely on static measures like tariffs.
Instead, the US needs to restore its social contract so that
its workers have a fair shot at sharing in the gains
generated by global openness and automation. Globalization
and technological innovation are not painless processes, so
there will always be a need for retraining initiatives,
lifelong education, mobility and income-support programs, and
regional transfers.
By pursuing such policies, the Trump administration would
stand a much better chance of making America "great again"
for the working and middle classes. Globalization has always
created more opportunities for the most competitive workers,
and more insecurity for others. This is why a strong social
contract was established during the post-war period of
liberalization in the West. In the 1960s and 1970s
institutions such as unions expanded, and governments made
new commitments to affordable education, social security, and
progressive taxation. These all helped members of the middle
class seize new opportunities as they emerged.
Over the last two decades, this situation has changed
dramatically: globalization has continued, but the social
contract has been torn up. Trump's top priority should be to
stitch it back together; but his trade advisers do not
understand this.
Thank you -- Social contract is the key. And it was
abolished with the ascendance of neoliberalism with its wolf
eats wolf philosophy of "individual responsibility" (read the
law of jungles in job market).
For some times, while neoliberalism was eating the carcass
of New Deal there was almost no rebellion against it. Even in
2008 none of the top honchos of financial institutions who
caused the disaster went to jail, although rank-and-file
employees of major banks and investment firms did feel very
insecure. "Jump suckers" was the slogan on the corner NYC
cafe close to Wall Street.
This time probably ended now. The problems is that
financial oligarchy does not want to share spoils of their
stealing with anybody.
And yes, communication technologies + huge growth of the
power of personal computers since 1986 are two very important
factors here.
They allowed new level of centralization, which was
impossible before. With the corporate headquarters on a
different continent then factories (among other things) and
teams consisting of members of different continents.
The Nostalgia of Trump: Remembering the days when birds fell
from the sky from the polluted air in L.A., When the Cuyahoga
River caught fire in Cleveland, death from black lung desease,
death from white lung desease, death by crushing, ...
I
don't ever see nostalgia for Trump. I wish to see him
expunged from the Nation's as quickly as possible.
I'm not sure what any of that has to do with nostalgia for
Trump.
Quite a while back Paine (who seems to be back here)
characterized contemporary Republicans as "the party of a
better yesterday". This refers to many people's impression
that when they were younger, at least looking back things
were more hopeful and remembered quality of life better. This
is independent from the things you mentioned. In my own
observation the same phenomenon could be observed in prior
generations of family and their acquaintances that
experienced in various degrees WW1 and WW2 and the postwar
fallouts. Life had always been better when they were young,
war or not.
Trump Chooses H.R. McMaster as National
Security Adviser
https://nyti.ms/2lo3mNK
NYT - PETER BAKER - February 20, 2017
WASHINGTON - President Trump picked Lt. Gen. H.R.
McMaster, a widely respected military strategist, as his new
national security adviser on Monday, calling him "a man of
tremendous talent and tremendous experience."
Mr. Trump made the announcement at his Mar-a-Lago getaway
in Palm Beach, Fla., where he has been interviewing
candidates to replace Michael T. Flynn, who was forced out
after withholding information from Vice President Mike Pence
about a call with Russia's ambassador.
The choice continued Mr. Trump's reliance on high-ranking
military officers to advise him on national security. Mr.
Flynn was a retired three-star general and Defense Secretary
Jim Mattis is a retired four-star general. His first choice
to replace Mr. Flynn, who turned the job down, and two other
finalists were current or former senior officers as well.
Shortly before announcing his appointment, Mr. Trump wrote
on Twitter: "Meeting with Generals at Mar-a-Lago in Florida.
Very interesting!"
General McMaster is seen as one of the Army's leading
intellectuals, first making a name for himself with a searing
critique of the Joint Chiefs of Staff for their performance
during the Vietnam War and later criticizing the way
President George W. Bush's administration went to war in
Iraq.
As a commander, he was credited with demonstrating how a
different counterterrorism strategy could defeat insurgents
in Iraq, providing the basis for the change in approach that
Gen. David H. Petraeus adopted to shift momentum in a war
that the United States was on the verge of losing.
"Mr. Friedman underscored problems of asymmetry in regulation: People who especially benefit from
a particular regulation will be inclined to lobby or bribe government officials for it. On the
other hand, members of the general public, who might suffer from such regulations, will not be
attentive to the many rules that affect them, each in a small way." -- Shiller article
This is the same Milton Friedman who assumed people had perfect information and expertise on
everything in the market. They were all electrical engineers who knew the exact schematics of
every toaster and refrigerator to know if it would burn down their house, but they had no idea
what any government regulations or policies were -- Hey, it's ok, and so scientific, to just assume
anything you want about human beings, as long as there's lots of math and internal consistency
and microfoundations -- And, of course, it makes libertarianism look better.
"... Because that's what pays and what brought him where he is now. Krugman is not a scientist ready to be burned for his convictions. He is a despicable presstitute. Such people have no morals. ..."
"... Plato oil might throw a monkey wrench into such projections. Globalization is based on cheap oil and consume obscene amount of it for transportation of food and goods from one continent to another. ..."
"... Also Kunsler question stands: what type of growth do we need? Growth of what? Of Wall Street banks and hedge funds? Of private equity sharks ? Do we need more Wal-Marts, more McDonalds? Do we need more battleships, fighter planes and attack helicopters? ..."
"... Or we need more hybrid and electrical cars, huge upgrade of the US national grid (east-West high voltage lines, new, safer types of nuclear reactors and huge investments in improving oil extraction technologies. ..."
Did he really know nothing of economic history? Did he not think that the US would follow 19th
century free trade colonies and semi-colonies into dustbin and economic hell of deindustrialization?
Had Krugman never honestly heard of the city of Camden? Did he never wonder at the consequences
of 0% tariffs in a mercantilist world?
Time for free trade economists to sit down, be quiet and admit their mistakes.
"Why did Krugman insist free trade would be wonderful?"
Because that's what pays and what brought him where he is now. Krugman is not a scientist
ready to be burned for his convictions. He is a despicable presstitute. Such people have no morals.
Absolutely the best description and explanation of Trump and his presidency that I read
" Trump administration is basing its budget projections on the assumption that the U.S.
economy will grow very rapidly over the next decade - in fact, almost twice as fast as independent
institutions like the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve expect. There is,
as far as we can tell, no serious analysis behind this optimism; instead, the number was plugged
in to make the fiscal outlook appear better.
I guess this was only to be expected from a man who keeps insisting that crime, which is
actually near record lows, is at a record high, that millions of illegal ballots were responsible
for his popular vote loss, and so on: In Trumpworld, numbers are what you want them to be,
and anything else is fake news. ..."
I'm going to keep this metric in mind whenever Trump or his Administration declares something
to be right and everyone else wrong, i.e., fake news
Plato oil might throw a monkey wrench into such projections. Globalization is based on cheap oil
and consume obscene amount of it for transportation of food and goods from one continent to another.
Also Kunsler question stands: what type of growth do we need? Growth of what? Of Wall Street
banks and hedge funds? Of private equity sharks ? Do we need more Wal-Marts, more McDonalds? Do
we need more battleships, fighter planes and attack helicopters?
Or we need more hybrid and electrical cars, huge upgrade of the US national grid (east-West
high voltage lines, new, safer types of nuclear reactors and huge investments in improving oil
extraction technologies.
The political stability of neoliberal society much like stability of Bolshevism depends on
whether the promises of higher standard of living for everybody are delivered.
If not, and for the bottom 80% they were not, the society enters the period of political instability.
Which in the USA probably has started with the election of Trump.
MSM dogs who are now barking at Trump are barking to the wrong tree.
Goldman Sachs analysts believe investors and traders in
the stock market are acting irrationally.
"Cognitive dissonance exists in the US stock market,"
Goldman Sachs' David Kostin said. "S&P 500 is up 10% since
the election despite negative [earnings per share] revisions
from sell-side analysts."
Earnings and expectations for earnings growth are the most
important drivers of stock prices in the long run. In the
short run, however, earnings and prices will often diverge.
"Investors, S&P 500 management teams, and sell-side
analysts do not agree on the most likely path forward,"
Kostin continued. "On the one hand, investors, corporate
managers, and macroeconomic survey data suggest an increase
in optimism about future economic growth. In contrast,
sell-side analysts have cut consensus 2017E adjusted EPS
forecasts by 1% since the election and 'hard' macroeconomic
data show only modest improvement." ...
Article in NYT yesterday re an essentially jobless recovery
in the TX oil industry. Technology has advanced to the point
where they only need a small fraction of workers they did a
few years ago to get the oil out of the ground. (Lose-lose in
that lower extraction costs support lower fuel costs which
support higher CO2 emissions and there's no employment gain.)
Will post the link to the NYT article later.
Texas Oil Fields Rebound From Price Lull, but Jobs Are
Left Behind
The industry is embracing technology, and finding new ways to
pare the labor force. But as jobs go away, what of
presidential promises to bring them back?
By CLIFFORD KRAUSS
The temporary adrenaline shot may help some people
"temporarily" (probably a decade or so), vs. no help at all.
In the long run we are all dead, but you can have had more or
less of a life before that. A decade is a significant period
in anybody's life.
Revoking trade deals will not help American middle classes
The advent of global supply chains has changed production
patterns in the US
by Larry Summers
FEBRUARY 5, 2017
Trade agreements have been central to American politics
for some years. The idea that renegotiating trade agreements
will "make America great again" by substantially increasing
job creation and economic growth swept Donald Trump into
office.
More broadly, the idea that past trade agreements have
damaged the American middle class and that the prospective
Trans-Pacific Partnership would do further damage is now
widely accepted in both major US political parties.
As Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan once observed,
participants in political debate are entitled to their own
opinions but not their own facts. The reality is that the
impact of trade and globalisation on wages is debatable and
could be substantial. But the idea that the US trade
agreements of the past generation have impoverished to any
significant extent is absurd.
There is a debate to be had about the impact of
globalisation on middle class wages and inequality. Increased
imports have displaced jobs. Companies have been able to
drive harder bargains with workers, particularly in unionised
sectors, because of the threat they can outsource. The advent
of global supply chains has changed production patterns in
the US.
My judgment is that these effects are considerably smaller
than the impacts of technological progress. This is based on
a variety of economic studies, experience in hypercompetitive
Germany and the observation that the proportion of American
workers in manufacturing has been steadily declining for 75
years. That said I acknowledge that global trends and new
studies show that the impact of trade on wages is much more
pronounced than a decade ago.
But an assessment of the impact of trade on wages is very
different than an assessment of trade agreements. It is
inconceivable that multilateral trade agreements, such as the
North American Free Trade Agreement, have had a meaningful
impact on US wages and jobs for the simple reason that the US
market was almost completely open 40 years ago before
entering into any of the controversial agreements.
American tariffs on Mexican goods, for example, averaged
about 4 per cent before Nafta came into force. China had what
was then called "most favoured nation" trading status with
the US before its accession to the World Trade Organization
and received the same access as other countries. Before the
Korea Free Trade Agreement, US tariffs on Korea averaged a
paltry 2.8 per cent.
The irrelevance of trade agreements to import competition
becomes obvious when one listens to the main arguments
against trade agreements. They rarely, if ever, take the form
of saying we are inappropriately taking down US trade
barriers.
Rather the naysayers argue that different demands should
be made on other countries during negotiations - on issues
including intellectual property, labour standards, dispute
resolution or exchange rate manipulation. I am sympathetic to
the criticisms of TPP, but even if they were all correct they
do not justify the conclusion that signing the deal would
increase the challenges facing the American middle class.
The reason for the rise in US imports is not reduced trade
barriers. Rather it is that emerging markets are indeed
emerging. They are growing in their economic potential
because of successful economic reforms and greater global
integration.
These developments would have occurred with or without US
trade pacts, though the agreements have usually been an
impetus to reform. Indeed, since the US does very little to
reduce trade barriers in our agreements, the impetus to
reform is most of what foreign policymakers value in them
along with political connection to the US.
The truth too often denied by both sides in this debate is
that incremental agreements like TPP have been largely
irrelevant to the fate of middle class workers. The real
strategic choice Americans face is whether the objective of
their policies is to see the economies of the rest of the
world grow and prosper. Or, does the US want to keep the rest
of the world from threatening it by slowing global growth and
walling off products and people?
Framed this way the solution appears obvious. A strategy
of returning to the protectionism of the past and seeking to
thwart the growth of other nations is untenable and would
likely lead to a downward spiral in the global economy. The
right approach is to maintain openness while finding ways to
help workers at home who are displaced by technical progress,
trade or other challenges.
" The right approach is to maintain openness while finding
ways to help workers at home who are displaced by technical
progress, trade or other challenges."
People like Summers,
DeLong, PGL and Krugman have been saying this for 30 years
ever since NAFTA was passed.
The voters no longer believe them. They're like the boy
who cried wolf.
Economix - Explaining the Science of Everyday Life
Undoing the Structural Damage to Potential Growth
By JARED BERNSTEIN MARCH 3, 2014 11:00 AM
What follows is macroeconomics, but I'll start with the
micro - a microcosm, in fact, of the larger idea I'm hoping
to get at here.
I think it was around 1998, and I was on a tram between
terminals at O'Hare Airport in Chicago. Two young men, who
clearly worked for the airport (they had a bunch of badges
dangling around their necks) were trying to figure out how
they knew each other, while I eavesdropped. Turned out they
had met each other in prison.
At the time, I was beginning a research project on the
benefits of full employment, and my first thought was, "Aha -
another example of how tight labor markets pull in the
hard-to-employ." This was also the era of work-based welfare
reform, and while analysts worried that employers would avoid
those with welfare histories, strong demand turned out to an
antidote to such preferences.
Basically, profiling based on gender, race and experience
is a luxury that employers can't afford when the job market
is really tight. That is not to imply, of course, that
employers broadly discriminate, but there is strong evidence
that many do, most recently against the long-term unemployed.
In tight markets, however, they face a choice of indulging
their preferences or leaving profits on the table, and
profits usually win.
Now, put this story aside for a second and let's turn to
the macro. A few months ago, I reported on a study by a few
Federal Reserve economists with pretty striking results of
the damage done to the economy's future growth rate by the
deep and protracted downturn known as the Great Recession.
The Congressional Budget Office just published a similar
analysis, resulting in the chart below showing growth in
gross domestic product as projected in 2007, before the
recession, and a revised projection from this year. By 2017,
the budget office predicts that the new and decidedly
not-improved level of G.D.P. will be 7.3 percent below the
old projection.
What does 7.3 percent of lost gross domestic product
actually mean? Well, last year G.D.P. amounted to about $16.8
trillion, and 7.3 percent of that comes to around $1.2
trillion. Conventional estimates translate that into more
than 10 million jobs.
It would be very good to avoid that fate. The thing is,
both the Fed economists and the Congressional Budget Office
basically argue that while their estimates are admittedly
uncertain, that fate cannot be avoided - it's baked into the
economic cake by the assumption that once your trend growth
rate slows as ours has, it does not come back barring some
positive, unforeseen shock. Here is how the Fed guys put it:
Policy makers cannot undo labor market damage once it has
occurred, but must instead wait for it to fade away on its
own accord; in other words, there is no special advantage,
given this specification, to running a high-pressure economy.
I disagree! I think the damage can be at least partly
reversed precisely by running "a high-pressure economy." I
saw it myself that day in the airport.
Technically, I'm talking about "reverse hysteresis." When
a cyclical problem morphs into a structural one, economists
invoke the concept of hysteresis. When this phenomenon takes
hold, the rate at which key economic inputs like labor supply
and capital investment enter the economy undergoes a
downshift that lasts through the downturn and well into the
expansion, reducing the economy's speed limit. But what I'm
suggesting here is that by running the economy well below
conventional estimates of the lowest unemployment rate
consistent with stable inflation, and doing so for a while,
we can pull workers back in, raise their career trajectories,
improve their pay and their living standards, and turn that
downshift to an upshift that raises the level and growth rate
of G.D.P.
Won't that be inflationary? Three points. First, if
anything, the current economy is suffering from inflation
that is too low (same with Europe), so near-term
growth-oriented policy seems clearly safe in this regard.
Second, the precise relationship between full employment and
inflation is poorly understood. When that latter-1990s story
above was taking place, economists frequently and incorrectly
warned that full employment would dangerously juice
inflation. Third, the correlation between these two variables
- inflation and labor market tightness - has become far
weaker in recent years (i.e., the Phillips Curve has
flattened, for those who like the jargon).
How do we reverse the hysteresis process (which is to ask:
How do we get back to very tight labor markets)? In earlier
posts, I've suggested a number of policies that would help,
including investment in public goods, direct job creation,
reducing the trade deficit and work-sharing. Still, you may
well be wondering, "Wait a minute - this dude wants us to go
with him down this path because of a conversation he
overheard 16 years ago?"
O.K., I'll admit that the economic journals are not
busting with evidence in support of reverse hysteresis. But
those of us who closely monitored full-employment economies
have observed and documented significantly positive labor
supply and investment outcomes. (True, a lot of that
investment has flowed into bubbles; I'm not saying this idea
solves every problem.)
The employment rates for young African-American adults,
like the guys I saw in the airport, averaged around 70
percent in the 1970s and '80s, but hit 80 percent in the late
1990s; they are in the mid-60s now. The employment rates for
single mothers also hit new highs in those years. The labor
force participation rate, itself an important victim of
hysteresis right now, hit its all-time high at the end of the
1990s expansion. In other words, full employment pulled a lot
of new people into the job market.
As part of the full-employment project I'm running at the
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities (and have written
about before on this blog), a number of top economists are
looking into the relationships between fiscal policy, and
hysteresis and reverse hysteresis. They are coming up with
some compelling findings, which I'll share once they are
ready. For now, allow me to assert the following: We have
shown we can do a lot of economic damage. With the political
will, sorely lacking these days, it can also be undone.
"What does 7.3 percent of lost gross domestic product
actually mean? Well, last year G.D.P. amounted to about $16.8
trillion, and 7.3 percent of that comes to around $1.2
trillion. Conventional estimates translate that into more
than 10 million jobs."
Obama's Economic Disappointment by Narayana Kocherlakota
In January 2009, at the beginning of Obama's first term,
the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office issued a 10-year
forecast for the U.S. economy, including such indicators as
unemployment, gross domestic product, the budget deficit,
government debt and interest rates. Here's a table comparing
the CBO's expectations for the year 2015 to what has actually
happened:
NGDP forecast to grow 33 percent, actually grew 22
percent.
"A final argument for gradually adjusting policy relates
to the desirability of achieving a prompt return of inflation
to the FOMC's 2 percent goal, an objective that would be
advanced by allowing the unemployment rate to decline for a
time somewhat below estimates of its longer-run sustainable
level. To a limited degree, such an outcome is envisioned in
many participants' most recent SEP projections. A tight labor
market may also work to reverse some of the adverse
supply-side developments resulting from the financial crisis.
The deep recession and slow recovery likely have held back
investment in physical and human capital, restrained the rate
of new business formation, prompted discouraged workers to
leave the labor force, and eroded the skills of the long-term
unemployed.15 Some of these effects might be reversed in a
tight labor market, yielding long-term benefits associated
with a more productive economy. That said, the quantitative
importance of these supply-side mechanisms are difficult to
establish, and the relevant research on this point is quite
limited."
Well, even without the FT telling us, it seems obvious that
Trump, a real estate developer who loves debt, is going to
want an easy money policy. So he will presumably stock the
Fed with cronies who want interest rates reduced back to zero
or even lower if possible, with no restrictions (like
reserves) on borrowing.
He probably won't be able to gain
actual control of the Fed until Yellen's term is over, and it
is certainly possible that by that time he will have been
removed from office (as we have discussed, this latter
possibility depends on Trump having alienated enough GOP
voters that the GOP establishment feels it can removed him
and install Pence without losing primary challenges).
I suspect that a combination of easy money and stagnant
wages is not something that can last long. But so far I have
been unable to find a historical example. Certainly in the
US, the 1970s do not fit (wages grew as well as inflation),
nor 1948 (inflation was 20% or more, but at the pinnacle of
union power wages also grew by at least as much. 1948 was an
inventory correction, like 2001 but if anything actually
milder). Maybe 1920 comes close, but I haven't examined wages
from that time.
Does anybody else know of an easy money/high
inflation/stagnant wage historical example?
There is an alternative view that aligns Trump with high
interest rent seeking gold bugs. I don't know which is true.
It may even be true that behind all of the bravado that Trump
actually knows how deep in over his head that he is with
regards to monetary policy. In that case he would protest a
lot to the contrary while unceremoniously seeking to preserve
the status quo at the Fed. Certainly your guess is as good as
mine and probably even better. OTOH, nothing is certain with
Trump.
At risk of being flamed by everybody else with an opinion on
this matter, I can see both sides of the issue:
You are
correct if Trump is not selling out to Russia.
You are also correct if (1) Trump *is* selling out to
Russia, *AND* (2) his voters were aware that he is selling
out to Russia, but voted for him with eyes wide open on that
issue.
In either of those two cases the Intelligence Community
leakers are trying to subvert the democratic will of the
people in elected Trump president.
You are wrong if: (1) Trump is selling out to Russia,
*AND* (2) his voters did not believe it when they voted for
him. In this case the Intelligence Community leakers, in my
opinion, are patriotic heroes.
Just because the Intellligence Community is not laying the
sources of its intelligence out in the open on the table does
not mean that the leakers are wrong. My suspicion is that
they are correct (see, e.g., Josh Marshall today. Google is
your friend.) The deeper problem is that I suspect Trump's
voters simply don't care, even if the Intelligence Community
is correct.
I did a mini max regret: More regret with Clinton sold out to
neoliberal profiteering war mongers who care only for
perpetual war, the max regret I see is unneeded nuclear war
over a few hundred thousand Estonians who hate Russia since
the Hanseatic league was suppressed by Ivan the Terrible.
Lesser regret with Trump sold out to Russia* that would only
bring China I against both US and Russia in about 50 years.
*Trump sold to Russia is Clintonista/Stalinist fantasia
sold by the yellow press.
I disagree. It is not enough that Trump voters were aware of
Trump selling out to Russia and didn't care; if there had
been conclusive proof of that before the election, other
people might have come out to vote against him.
Besides,
some of his voters might not care and some might.
In any case, whether the leakers are patriots or traitors
does not have to do with subverting "the will of the people".
At the most extreme, leaks could lead to, say, impeachment,
which is another way to express the will of the people. (Or
actually, the will of the plutocrats and their Republican and
Democratic running dogs, but that's another discussion).
It has always been time to stand for the Constitution and
against the deep state.
And you really think this was built
by democrats and Clinton? Since you are about my age, I'll
keep it brief and just say one word: COINTELPRO.
And it's not either or. There are plenty of bad actors,
some as dangerous as the spooks. E.g. a President that
believes we're in an existential war against Islam, and who
is likely pull every trigger available to him if some Muslim
stages an attack in the US. Frankly, if such a time comes
I'll feel safer thinking that Trump and the spooks at not
working too closely together.
New Deal democrat and couple of other Hillary enthusiasts
here used to sing quite a different song as for Hillary
bathroom email server ;-).
Russia bogeyman (or "ruse" as Trump aptly defined it) is
now used to swipe under the carpet the crisis of neoliberal
ideology and the collapse of Democratic Party which is still
dominated by Clinton wing of soft neoliberals). Chickhawks
like a couple of people here (for example, im1dc), are always
want to fight another war, but using some other ("less
valuable") peoples bodies as the target of enemy fire.
Democratic Party now is playing an old and very dirty
trick called "Catch the thief", when they are the thief.
Why we are not discussing the key issue: how the
redistribution of wealth up during the last two decades
destabilized the country both economically and politically?
Also it is unclear whether a simple, non-painful way out
exists, or this is just something like a pre-collapse stage
as happened with Brezhnev socialism in the USSR. The Damocles
sword of "peak/plato oil" hangs over neoliberal
globalization. That's an undeniable and a very important
factor. Another ten (or twenty) years of the "secular
stagnation", and then what? Can the current globalized
economy function with oil prices above $100 without severe
downsizing.
The economic plunder of other countries like the plunder
of xUSSR economic space (which helped to save and return to
growth the USA economics in 90th, providing half a billion
new customers and huge space for "dollarization") is no
longer possible as there are no any new USSR that can
disintegrate.
And "artificial disintegration" of the countries to open
them to neoliberal globalization (aka "controlled chaos")
like practiced in Libya and Syria proved to be quite costly
and have unforeseen side effects.
The forces that ensured Trump victory are forces that
understood at least on intuitive level that huge problems
with neoliberalism need something different that kicking the
can down the road, and that Hillary might well means the
subsequent economic collapse, or WWIII, or both.
Trump might not have a solution, but he was at least
courageous enough to ask uncomfortable questions.
Blackmailing Russia can probably be viewed as just an
attempt to avoid asking uncomfortable questions (Like who is
guilty and who should go to jail ;-) , and to distract the
attention from the real problems. As if the return us to the
good old Obama days of universal deceit (aka "change we can
believe in") , can solve the problems the country faces.
And when neoliberal presstitutes in MSM now blackmail
Trump and try to stage "purple" color revolution, this might
well be a sign of desperation, not strength.
They have no solution for the country problem, they just
want to kick the can down the road and enjoy their privileges
while the country burns.
As Galbright put it: "People of privilege will always risk
their complete destruction rather than surrender any material
part of their advantage." -- John Kenneth Galbraith
The fake liberals directed the intelligence
services to target the political opposition. Now the
opposition is in power the intelligence services could be
held to respond to their destruction of the US Bill of
Rights.
It is not just the fake liberal economics the democrats
will answer to in 2018.
In 15 months people like me will spend a lot of time
reminding the democrats of their ignoble treatment of the US
constitution because their neoliberal scam artist was
defeated.
Well, now I see very
clearly why I disagree with you so much.
This government is the apotheosis of neoliberalism. I'm
only sorry we didn't get the pure version with Mitt, instead
of this one stained with a cabal of White Christian jihadis.
"This government is the apotheosis of neoliberalism."
I respectfully disagree. Trump neoliberalism is a "bastard
neoliberalism" (or neoliberalism in a single county, in you
wish) as he rejects globalization and wars for the expansion
of the US led neoliberal empire.
A problem with today's views about globalization is that they look backward rather than forward.
The future's globalization is much different from the past's globalization. In particular, growing
nationalism is the future in the places, such as China, that have benefited from globalization.
By that I mean China is beginning to produce goods for China firms rather than for western firms
to compete with goods produced for western (American) firms including goods produced in China
for western firms.
It's a much different dynamic than what we have experienced in the past 30 years. And the response
to the new globalization should (and will) be much different.
Ironically, Trump's views about globalization come closer to what will be the response as western
firms adjust to the new globalization. Is Trump that smart? No, it's just that everybody else
is that dumb.
Free-trade globalization is so ridiculous on so many levels
one can only conclude that economic theologians who support
it are either utterly incompetent or corrupt.
First take
skyrocketing inequality and government debt. Both are related
to free-trade outsourcing schemes. When production is moved
out of country to cut wage costs and cut corners on
regulations the only people who profit from it are corporate
executives and shareholders. In the US, the top 20% own 80%
of all investments. If the top 20% are the only ones
benefiting – while workers are getting slaughtered – then
clearly this is a major source of rising inequality.
In a functioning economy – and yes America once had a
functioning economy during the Keynesian New Deal era that
began with FDR and was ended with Reagan – all segments of
society benefit from GDP growth – not just self-aggrandizing
robber barons.
Next factor in twin deficits. When a country is importing
more goods than it is exporting it has a trade deficit. The
US has had a whopping structural trade deficit for about 40
years spanning the entire Friedmanian neoliberal era that
began with Reagan. How does a nation purchase imports it is
not earning with exports? By borrowing: i.e., running
government deficits.
A simple analysis of international trade over the
Friedmanian neoclassical era shows that economists must be
mental midgets or they are on the take. During the Ricardian
era, economists railed against mercantilist monarchs on the
basis it was illogical: i.e., as Krugman puts it, if all
countries want to run trade surpluses they have to trade with
another planet because if some countries are running
structural trade surpluses then others must run structural
trade deficits.
But what happened during the Friedmanian era? Economists
looked the other way on the most mercantilist period in
economic history. The oligarchs of undeveloped countries ran
massive net trade surpluses. Most developing countries ran
whopping net trade deficits. This is the very opposite of
Ricardian free-trade ideology predicated on countries having
a net balance of trade.
Next factor in lost GDP. It's definition: all final goods
and services produced in a country in a year. Not all final
goods outsourced from a country. Which is to say, outsourcing
kills GDP dollar for dollar. So it's really no wonder that
GDP growth collapsed after decades of outsourcing schemes –
along with the entire Western economy. (Of course this was
not the only kind of economic corruption that caused economic
collapse.)
But it's really funny to think that looting oligarchs in
developed countries are willing to destroy the economy for a
percentage. Because they only make a profit cutting labor
costs. That's a one time deal. The outsourced GDP is GDP that
is lost every year – from which they would've otherwise
profited. (This is not to suggest that all GDP must be
fiercely protected. Simply that there must be some balance
that can only be accomplished with some form of managed
trade.)
Next factor in the destruction of demand. Take a $30 an
hour auto job in the US or Canada. Ship it off to Mexico
where workers are paid $3 an hour. It's an economic miracle!
How many people making $3 an hour can afford to buy a new
car? Oh that's right! If the central bank prints money by
buying up toxic assets created by barbarian bankers tearing
up the global financial system – this will make up for all
the loss in demand. It's call "economic science."
Now for some salt in the wounds: for all the wealth that
flows out of the country from these outsourcing schemes an
equal amount must flow back and in the form of foreign debt.
Right now Chinese oligarchs are producing a massive housing
bubble in Canada snatching up real estate. Of course the
bubble won't burst overnight like in the US whose housing
bubble was predicated on predatory mortgage-lending fraud. It
will deflate like Japan in something like a 15-year bear
market which caused their economy to fall apart. (Note that
Japan's 22-year "lost decade" is actually a decades-long
Great Depression. 2015 GDP is the lower than 1993 – and
falling. Now that's an economic miracle: akin to the 7
plagues of Egypt.)
Long story short: looting barbarian plutocrats are even
dumber than their lapdog economists. First they started
burning the furniture to heat the house. Now they are tearing
up the rafters. Like the frog and scorpion story they don't
want to think about the consequences of their actions – i.e.,
the inevitable collapse of the Western economy into fascist
revolutions and world war.
The establishment is hysterical now that Trump has come
along – on behest of the American people – and put this
nonsense to a stop – which Obama in Hillary Clinton had
planned to accelerate with the TPP and whatever other "open
border" schemes across the Americas. ("Need more rafters!")
Like Keynes and FDR, Trump is at least taking some kind of
action to save capitalism and capitalists from themselves.
Americans had tasked their first African-American president
with this job. Now it's Plan B time.
It's amazing how many people think Trump is dumb when they
are so much dumber. Trump is smart enough to realize that
free-trade globalization is the problem (one of many; : but
at least he's smart enough to realize part of the problem.)
I don't believe in Trump. Never have. But I believe in him
a lot more than this tumorous growth of fake technocrats,
fake-news journalists, fake public servants and fake
meritocrats eroding the foundations of this primitive
barbarian proto-civilization by liquidating the public trust
and committing crimes against humanity.
People of privilege will always risk their complete
destruction rather than surrender any material part of their
advantage. Intellectual myopia, often called stupidity, is no
doubt a reason. But the privileged also feel that their
privileges, however egregious they may seem to others, are a
solemn, basic, God-given right. The sensitivity of the poor
to injustice is a trivial thing compared with that of the
rich.
-John Kenneth Galbraith
The Age of Uncertainty (1977)
Chapter 1, p. 22
"People of privilege will always risk their complete
destruction rather than surrender any material part of their
advantage."
I would say this is rational. Surrendering
advantages will generally weaken your position and thus
increase the risk of complete destruction or being stripped
of further advantages. Also quite often members of the elite,
individually or as a group, have likely acted in ways that
enraged their opponents to the point that they will likely
not stop at just stripping advantages until a "reasonable"
point, but indeed seek complete destruction. History is full
of things like guillotines and hunting down and murder or
lifelong imprisonment of all family members (who have not
been plausibly disavowed or disassociated while the old
regime was still comfortably in power).
Of course in the past, rulers and elites were often dethroned
by other elites, with popular uprisings only used as a
temporary tool. In any case, once it gets close to that
point, it's an all or nothing fight for either side.
There have been examples where elites have ceded advantages
in a peaceful transition. But that usually happen in a
context where there had already been gradual transitions to
shared/broader power in the past (generally not peaceful in
the initial stages). The UK and its royals/nobility are an
obvious example, probably also Scandinavia which are mostly
still nominally kingdoms (?), or the royal family and former
or still existing nobility has influence but officially only
a figurehead role. The transition to democracy happened
largely peacefully in the past 1-2 centuries, prior to that
not so much.
Until the Democrats reform their leadership and recommit to
working people again, they will have no future as a party.
Brad and Larry and Paul are a big part of the status quo for
the liberal establishment, and the incredible failure of
leadership they have achieved.
Continuing to argue about it here, with the quick resort
to personal attacks and name-calling, is irrelevant, because
the Democratic party is dead. Seriously, how big of a loss
can they take before the leadership gets tossed? It was not
just the presidency. They have lost almost everything.
Don't count the Democratic Party out yet. Politicians need to
make a living. After the Civil War the Democratic Party had
to scrape together what it could find that Republicans had
tossed out with the garbage. So, the Democratic Party took to
supporting immigrants and unions. Times have changed and the
Democratic Party lost the unions to corporatism, but tried to
make it up with racial politics. That worked some, but the
problem with identity politics is that eventually people get
their rights and freedoms and next thing you know they want
jobs and college educations for their children. The
Democratic Party made a big mistake abandoning the interests
of ordinary working people, but that is what their corporate
donors demanded. So, it is time for a makeover and if the
next one does not take then they will be back at it again
because politicians have to make a living.
The Democratic party, much less so than the Republican party,
is not homogenous. All the things you ascribe to them past or
present don't apply to most of their current members or
operatives.
It is one of the pernicious aspects of an
effectively two-party system that all progressives have a
strong motivation or even necessity to associate themselves
with the "least bad" party. By way of official narrative the
Democrats definitely fit the bill, even though they contain a
lot of "co-opted" (if not corrupted) establishment baggage.
That just happens with any major party - elites and interest
groups that nominally stay out of politics but factually
participate and not just a little are never resting.
In Germany, the 80's (perhaps late 70s?) saw an ascendancy
of the Green party which was strongly associated with
environmentalism, and by implication resistance to then
prevalent politics, social mores, etc. They were successful
as environmentalism and (I would say secondarily but that can
be debated) civil/individual liberties and gender/ethnic
equality which they also featured big time were themes that
found wide appeal, and the time was ripe for them (e.g.
environmental degradation had become undeniable, and
gender/ethnic discrimination had become recognized as a
factor hindering progress, aside from just fairness
concerns).
A few decades later (and starting even a few years after
the success) there was a noticeable bifurcation in the Greens
- it turned out they were not all on the same page regarding
all social issues. A number of Greens "defected" from the
party and associated themselves with Red (Social Democrats,
equivalent of US Democrats) or Black (Christian Democrats,
equivalent of US Republicans) - showing that environmental or
general (dimensions of) equal opportunity concerns are
perhaps orthogonal to stands on other more or less specific
social issues (or if one wants to be more cynical, that some
people are careerist and not so much about principles - that
exists but I would prefer (with little proof) to think it
doesn't explain the larger pattern).
"The consequences of the Reagan deficits were to cream
midwestern manufacturing and destroy worker bargaining power
in export and import-competing industries. The switch from
government surpluses to deficits under George W. Bush had
much the same consequences. "
Where's carters volcker ?
And the bit about going from surplus to deficit
Is utterly undeveloped here
Lots of Rubinte lice crawling around under that mossy rock
Manufacturing,
manufacturing,
manufacturing.
Everybody misses the
BRONTOSAURUS in the
room. 4% of jobs gone
from automation and
trade - half and half
-- true. But, 50% of
employees have lost
10% of overall income
-- out of the 20% of a
couple of generations
back.
(This reminds
me of comparing EITC's
1/2 1% redistribution
with 45% of workers
earning less than $15
an hour.)
Could 50% of the
workforce squeeze 10%
of income back out of
the 49% who take 70%
(14% of their
earnings!)? They sure
could if they could
collectively agree not
to show up for work
otherwise. Could if
the 49% in turn could
squeeze 10% out of the
1% (the infamous one
percent) who lately
take 20% of overall
income -- up from 10%
a couple of
generations back.
(Does the Chicago
Bears quarterback
really need $126
million for seven
years -- up from to
top NFL paid Joe
Namath's $600,000
[adjusted truly] a
couple of generations
back?)
Mechanism? Ask
Germany (ask Jimmy
Hoffa).
* * * * * *
In case nobody thought
about it -- I never
thought about until
Trump -- it goes like
this. The NLRA(a) was
written in 1935
leaving blank the use
criminal sanctions for
muscling the labor
market. Even if it did
specify jail time for
union busting it is
extremely arguable
that state penalties
for muscling ANY
persons seeking to
collectively bargain
(not just union
organizers and joiners
following fed
procedure) would
overlap, not violate
federal preemption.
It seems inarguable
-- under long
established First
Amendment right to
organize collective
bargaining -- that
federal preemption
cannot force employees
down an organizing
road that is
unarguably impassable,
because unenforceable.
Upshot: states may
make union busting a
felony -- hopefully
backed by RICO for
persistent violators.
6% union density is
like 20/10 blood
pressure. It starves
every other healthy
process.
In 1967-68 was working
the waterfront in SF.
Saw the crews of
Stevedores and
Longshoremen load the
ships; on the docks,
down in the holds,
using boom winches,
forklifts, and muscle
(dangerous work). By
1970, containerization
had replaced 90% of
them. And, it
continues with
computerization of
storage and loading of
containers (something
I worked on in 1975).
Remember the nephew in
the 'Wire'? One day a
week if he was lucky.
David Simon knew of
what he wrote.
One of the Michael
Moore movies (probably
but not sure whether
about Flint) made the
point rather
explicitly - former
manufacturing workers
retrained as law
enforcement or prison
officers perhaps for
employment in other
states or "dealing
with" their former
colleagues driven to
crime or at least into
the arms of the law
enforcement system.
We have cut 'our deficits by almost three-quarters,' Obama
says in State of the Union
By Louis Jacobson on Tuesday, January 12th, 2016 at 10:39
p.m.
A year ago, President Barack Obama said during his 2015
State of the Union address that the United States has seen
"our deficits cut by two-thirds" during his tenure. We rated
that claim Mostly True. During his 2016 State of the Union
address, Obama raised the bar.
After citing some of his administration's economic
accomplishments, he said, "We've done all this while cutting
our deficits by almost three-quarters."
Has the deficit-reduction expanded during the past year?
We took a closer look.
Let's start with an important reminder: The deficit is not
the same as the debt.
A country's deficit is the difference between what the
government collects in revenues and spends in one year. The
national debt, by contrast, is the accumulation of all annual
deficits minus any annual surpluses.
When we checked Obama's assertion a year ago, he compared
his first budget year in office -- 2009 -- to 2014, using the
deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product, or GDP.
Economists consider this a valid way to measure the size of
the deficit -- in fact, for most purposes, it's the best way,
since it factors in the economy's change over time.
Here's the recent history of the deficit as a percentage
of GDP. The years 2009 through 2014 come from historical data
maintained by the Office of Management and Budget. The 2015
figure is the most recent estimate by the nonpartisan
Congressional Budget Office, released in August 2015.
Fiscal year Deficit as a percentage of GDP
2009 9.8
2010 8.7
2011 8.5
2012 6.8
2013 4.1
2014 2.8
2015 2.4
According to this data, the deficit as a percentage of GDP
has fallen by 76 percent -- almost exactly what Obama said.
If you use dollars rather than percentage of GDP, the
decline is a bit smaller but still pretty close -- 70
percent.
That said, experts have told us that while Obama's math
may be correct, it's missing some important caveats.
First, it's important to note that the deficit swelled in
2009 partly because of the massive stimulus program to
jumpstart the cratering economy. This temporarily elevated
level set the stage for the unusually precipitous decline.
"This is not to say that that the large deficit was his
fault, but if one used the 2008 deficit as a frame of
reference, the comparison would be quite different," Alan
Auerbach, University of California Berkeley professor of
economics and law, told us a year ago.
Also, some economists we've consulted pointed out that the
2009 fiscal year was Obama's first year in office, and so not
necessarily a good starting point since he had little control
over the spending in that year.
There's another issue. Princeton University economics
professor Harvey Rosen told us the more important question is
whether Obama has put the government on a path that will keep
deficits stable.
"And the answer is no," Rosen said, because entitlement
programs, such as Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security,
have not had substantial reform.
The long-term forecast for the deficit illustrates this
point. Absent substantial reform, the Congressional Budget
Office expects a few more years of short-term deficit
decreases followed by bigger shortfalls in 10 and 20 years.
The most recent projections show deficits as a percentage
of GDP remaining lower than today's level through 2018, then
beginning an upward curve. Between 2019 and 2022, the deficit
is set to rise from 2.8 percent of GDP to 3.7 percent of GDP.
It is not projected to fall below 3.4 percent through 2025.
We should also note that the picture on the debt is not as
rosy as it is for the deficit. When Obama took office, the
debt held by the public stood at $6.3 trillion. Since then,
it has more than doubled to $13.6 trillion.
Finally, presidents don't move the economy on their own
(the economy can be affected for good or ill by global trends
and technological change) and must cooperate with Congress
when steering fiscal policy.
Our ruling
Obama said we have cut "our deficits by almost
three-quarters."
The numbers check out if you start with fiscal year 2009,
his first year in office. But it's worth remembering that
2009 had a historically high deficit, and that projections
show the deficit increasing again in just a couple years.
Cash
surpluses in the entitlements (payroll receipt were in the SS
and medicare accounts exceded outlays) were spent on programs
not covered by cash received from "general tax revenues".
"... The revival of nationalism in western Europe, which began in the 1990s, has been associated
with increasing support for radical right parties. This column uses trade and election data to show
that the radical right gets its biggest electoral boost in regions most exposed to Chinese exports.
Within these regions communities vote homogenously, whether individuals work in affected industries
or not. ..."
"... "Chinese imports" is only an expression, or correlate, of something else - the neoliberal YOYO
principle and breakdown/deliberate destruction of social cohesion ..."
"... As a side effect, this removes the collective identity, and increased tribalism is the compensation
- a large part it is an attempt to find/associate with a group identity, which of course gives a large
boost to readily available old identities, which were in the past (ab)used by nationalist movements,
largely for the same reasons. ..."
The revival of nationalism in western Europe, which began in the 1990s, has been associated
with increasing support for radical right parties. This column uses trade and election data to
show that the radical right gets its biggest electoral boost in regions most exposed to Chinese
exports. Within these regions communities vote homogenously, whether individuals work in affected
industries or not.
"Chinese imports" is only an expression, or correlate, of something else - the neoliberal
YOYO principle and breakdown/deliberate destruction of social cohesion.
As a side effect, this removes the collective identity, and increased tribalism is the
compensation - a large part it is an attempt to find/associate with a group identity, which of
course gives a large boost to readily available old identities, which were in the past (ab)used
by nationalist movements, largely for the same reasons.
It seems to be quite apparent to me that the loss of national/local identity has not (initially?)
promoted nationalist movements advocating a stronger national identity narrative, but a "rediscovery"
of regional identities - often based on or similar to the geography of former kingdoms or principalities
prior to national unification, or more local municipal structures (e.g. local administrations,
business, or interest groups promoting a historical narrative of a municipal district as the village
or small town that it descended from, etc. - with the associated idyllic elements).
In many cases these historical identity narratives had always been undercurrents, even when
the nation state was strong.
And I mean strong not in the military or executive strength sense, but accepted as legitimate
and representing the population and its interests.
In these days, national goverments and institutions (state/parties) have been largely discredited,
not least due to right wing/elite propaganda (and of course due to observed corruption promoted
from the same side).
I'm not aware that either have discredited any deep state (BTW which Clinton?). The first thing
I would ask for is clarification what you mean by "deep state" - can you provide a usable definition?
Obama has rejected calls for going after US torturers ("we want to move past this").
And if you don't know where the 6 months of innuendo about the Russians comes from since Aug
16 you are reading the treasonous agitprop from the democrat wind machine centered in NY, Boston
and LA.
I'm not sure this answers my question, and it seems to accuse me of something I have not said
or implied (taking treason lightly) - or perhaps cautioning me against such?
Are you willing to define the terms you are discussing? (Redirecting me to a google search
etc. will not address my question. How exactly do you define "deep state"? You can quote from
the internet of course.)
From a previous life I know a concept of "a state within the state" (concretely referring to
the East German Stasi and similar services in other "communist" countries in concept but only
vaguely in the details). That is probably related to this, but I don't want to base any of this
on speculation and unclear terms.
In a shift supported and welcomed in Washington, Latin
America has been moving to the right in the last year or
so. Three of South America's largest economies - Brazil,
Argentina, and Peru - now have right-wing presidents with
close ties to Washington and its foreign policy. The
standard "Washington Consensus" narrative, while ignoring
any US role in the region, sees the left governments that
were elected in South America over the past couple decades
as having ridden a commodities boom to populist victories,
with handouts to the poor and unsustainable spending. When
that boom collapsed, the story goes, so did the finances
of left governments and therefore their political
fortunes.
But this is a highly exaggerated and self-serving
narrative. Ecuador is a good example of how a left
government achieved success over the past decade through
positive and creative changes in economic policy, as well
as financial, institutional, and regulatory reform.
The details are also worth looking at because Ecuador's
experience shows that much of the rhetoric about how
"globalization" restricts the choices of governments to
those that please international investors is also
exaggerated. It turns out that even a relatively small,
middle-income developing country can adopt workable
alternative policy options - if people can elect a
government that is independent and responsible enough to
use them.
The results for the decade-plus of left government in
Ecuador (2007–16) include a 38 percent reduction in
poverty and a 47 percent reduction in extreme poverty.
Social spending as a percentage of GDP doubled, including
large increases in spending on education and healthcare.
Educational enrollment increased sharply for ages 17 and
under, and spending on higher education as a percent of
GDP became the highest in Latin America. Average annual
growth of income per capita was much higher than in the
prior 26 years (1.5 versus 0.6 percent), and inequality
was considerably reduced.
Public investment as a percent of GDP more than
doubled, and the results were widely appreciated in new
roads, hospitals, schools, and access to electricity.
Rafael Correa was elected president of Ecuador in 2006
and took office in January of 2007. A former economy
minister who was trained in the United States, he set out
to fix some of the structural and institutional problems
that had kept Ecuador from advancing. Policy was
handicapped by the fact that Ecuador had adopted the US
dollar as its currency in 2000. This meant that the
government couldn't influence its exchange rate and was
limited in how much it could use monetary policy. And it
reduced the Central Bank's ability to act as a lender of
last resort to the banking system.
This meant that the government had to be more efficient
and creative, and exert more control over the financial
system. In 2008, a new constitution was approved in a
referendum, and the central bank - which was previously
"independent" and mandated to focus on low inflation - was
now made part of the government's economic team. This was
very important in coordinating economic policy. The
conventional wisdom among most economists-and a pillar of
neoliberalism - is that central banks should be
independent of elected officials. In practice, this
usually means that they are unaccountable to the public,
but not so independent of powerful financial interests.
A new law in 2009 required that banks in Ecuador bring
45 percent of their liquid assets back into the country;
this requirement increased to 60 percent in 2012, and the
actual level was more than 80 percent by 2015. These and
other reforms that kept dollars in the country were
essential to overcoming the new government's first serious
challenge: the world financial crisis of 2008 and world
recession of 2009. Ecuador was one of the hardest-hit
countries in the hemisphere, since oil prices collapsed
and the government depended on oil for the majority of its
revenue. Another major source of dollars, remittances -
mostly money sent home by Ecuadorians working abroad -
also collapsed during the recession. This double shock
could have caused a prolonged recession or depression, but
it didn't, thanks to large increases in government
spending and a large stimulus in 2009. The recession
lasted just three quarters, costing about 1.3 percent of
GDP.
The next big economic shock was the much more prolonged
collapse in oil prices that began in the third quarter of
2014. This time, the government was even more creative: In
addition to some expansionary fiscal policy (i.e., running
bigger budget deficits), the central bank actually engaged
in quantitative easing, much as the US Federal Reserve did
in response to the recession. Ecuador's central bank
created billions of dollars that it lent to the government
for spending (and also to state-owned banks). This was
unexpected for a government that did not even have its own
currency, but it proved to be very helpful in the
recovery.
The most important decision in bringing about Ecuador's
current economic recovery was also perhaps the most
unorthodox: The government imposed a variety of tariffs on
imports under the World Trade Organization's provision for
emergency balance-of-payments safeguards. This reduction
of imports in 2015–16 added about 7.6 percentage points to
GDP during those years. This counteracted spending cuts
that the government had to make as revenues crashed.
The government of Correa and his party (Alianza PAIS)
was thus able to achieve considerable economic and social
progress, despite two recessions caused by serious
external shocks. Contrary to the Washington narrative,
this depended on major institutional reforms, financial
regulation, and smart policy choices, many of which went
against the conventional neoliberal wisdom.
Of course it helped that the president himself has a
PhD in economics and knew what he was doing, and that he
had a serious commitment to progressive governance from
the beginning. Still, Correa's government had to fight
powerful entrenched interests, including the bankers who
owned most of the television media when he took office. A
referendum in 2011 prohibited banks from owning media (and
vice versa), and that helped to reduce their stranglehold
on public debate. But the media have remained a powerful
and politicized right-wing force, as in other countries
with left governments - e.g. Brazil, where the major media
led a successful effort last year to remove Workers' Party
President Dilma Rousseff from office - despite the lack of
any impeachable offense.
The government's legacy will be tested in an election
this Sunday for president and national assembly....
1) Mexican workers are paid ~$1 an
hour and US workers doing the same work are paid ~$13 hour
and US plants are closing and moving to Mexico
and
2) ..."But some companies that produce goods in Mexico say
there's no going back to the U.S. That includes Delphi.
The company just announced a plan for more layoffs in
Warren, where only 1,500 employees remain.
Speaking at Barclay's Global Automotive Conference in New
York in December, Delphi's chief financial officer Joe
Massaro explained what he thought would happen to Delphi
under several Trump trade scenarios.
If Trump were to close the border with Mexico outright,
"in less than a week, all the people who voted for him in
Michigan and Ohio would be out of work," Massaro argued,
underscoring the fact that many factories in the U.S.,
including car makers in Detroit, depend on parts made in
Mexico.
If the United States were to withdraw from NAFTA and start
taxing imports from Mexico again, Delphi would continue doing
business in Mexico, he said. The company would pass on the
extra cost to its suppliers or to consumers, or would find a
way to reduce its production costs - which could mean layoffs
or salary cuts in Mexico."...
Trump can't fix that discrepancy in worker pay. Reagan's
so-called Free Trade began a race to the bottom for US
workers. It was known and discussed at the time. Reagan and
the Republican Party did not stand up for US workers and
neither did the Democrats in the day. Workers pay was
bartered off for cheaper goods to be bought at our stores.
That's the bargain made by Wall Street and D.C. and accepted
by American Workers who liked paying less at the store, not
realizing it meant they would be paid less - eventually.
And they certainly never dreamed it meant that in 20+
years their jobs would disappear overseas too.
As you are the most active promoter of color
revolution against Trump in this blog, and definitely read a
lot about his issue, I would like to ask you: are we close to
the stage when a false flag operation against Trump (like
shooting of protesters) will be deployed, or not yet ?
For the list of a typical signs of color revolution see,
for example,
"Forewarned is forearmed", so it might be a good idea to
have the knowledge to avoid being drawn into supporting such
a 'revolution', which contrary to what it proclaims, never is
about democracy and justice. The Chinese pastor Leung has
outlined the 12 steps of regime change.
The key difference is that this time it is not the U.S.
making regime change overseas, but in America itself to serve
the powers that be.
The 12 steps are:
1. Dispatch CIA, MI6 and other intelligence officers as
students, tourists, volunteers, businessmen, reporters to the
target country
2. Set up Non Governmental Organizations (NGO's) under the
guise of humanitarianism to fight for "democracy" and "human
rights" in order to attract advocates of freedom and ideals
3. Attract local traitors, especially academics,
politicians, reporters, soldiers etc. through bribery or
threaten those who have some stain in their life
4. If the target country has unions, bribe them
5. Pick a catchy theme or color for the revolution.
Examples include the Praque spring (1968), Velvet Revolution
(Eastern Europe, 1989), Rose Revolution (Georgia, 2003),
Cedar Revolution (Lebanon, 2005), Orange Revolution (Ukraine
2004), Green Revolution (Iran), Jasmine Revolution, Arab
Spring and even Hong Kong's Umbrella Revolution
6. Start protests for whatever reasons to kick off the
revolution. It could be human rights, democracy, government
corruption or electoral fraud. Evidence isn't necessary; an
excuse will do.
7. Write protest signs and banners in English to let
Americans see and get Americans politicians and civilians
involved.
8. Let those corrupted politicians, intellectuals and
union leaders join the protests and call upon all people with
grievances to join
9. The US and European mainstream media help by
continuously emphasizing that the revolution is caused by
injustice and thereby gaining the support of the majority
10. When the whole world is watching stage a false-flag
action. The target government will soon be destabilized and
lose support among its people
11. Add in violent agent provocateurs to provoke the
police to use force. This will cause the target government to
lose the support of other countries and become
"delegitimized" by the international community
12. Send politicians to the US, EU, the UN to petition so
that the target government will face the threat of economic
sanctions, no-fly zones and even airstrikes and an armed
rebel uprising
"... Dispatch CIA, MI6 and other intelligence officers as students, tourists, volunteers, businessmen, reporters to the target country ..."
"... Set up Non Governmental Organizations (NGO's) under the guise of humanitarianism to fight for "democracy" and "human rights" in order to attract advocates of freedom and ideals ..."
"... Start protests for whatever reasons to kick off the revolution. It could be human rights, democracy, government corruption or electoral fraud. Evidence isn't necessary; an excuse will do ..."
"... The US and European mainstream media help by continuously emphasizing that the revolution is caused by injustice and thereby gaining the support of the majority ..."
"... When the whole world is watching stage a false-flag action. The target government will soon be destabilized and lose support among its people ..."
"... Send politicians to the US, EU, the UN to petition so that the target government will face the threat of economic sanctions, no-fly zones and even airstrikes and an armed rebel uprising ..."
"... What the FBI/deep state did to Flynn and 3 other private US citizens was unthinkable before Obama and his DNC! ..."
"... My team USA is not run by neoliberal neocons running an illicit deep state. ..."
"... Newspapers hires only hacks who must display Trump Derangement Syndrome like poor pk to be printed and paid. ..."
As you are the most active promoter of color revolution against Trump in this blog, and definitely
read a lot about his issue, I would like to ask you: are we close to the stage when a false flag
operation against Trump (like shooting of protesters) will be deployed, or not yet ?
For the list of a typical signs of color revolution see, for example,
"Forewarned is forearmed", so it might be a good idea to have the knowledge to avoid being
drawn into supporting such a 'revolution', which contrary to what it proclaims, never is about
democracy and justice. The Chinese pastor Leung has outlined the 12 steps of regime change.
The key difference is that this time it is not the U.S. making regime change overseas, but
in America itself to serve the powers that be.
The 12 steps are:
1. Dispatch CIA, MI6 and other intelligence officers as students, tourists, volunteers,
businessmen, reporters to the target country
2. Set up Non Governmental Organizations (NGO's) under the guise of humanitarianism
to fight for "democracy" and "human rights" in order to attract advocates of freedom and ideals
3. Attract local traitors, especially academics, politicians, reporters, soldiers etc. through
bribery or threaten those who have some stain in their life
4. If the target country has unions, bribe them
5. Pick a catchy theme or color for the revolution. Examples include the Praque spring (1968),
Velvet Revolution (Eastern Europe, 1989), Rose Revolution (Georgia, 2003), Cedar Revolution
(Lebanon, 2005), Orange Revolution (Ukraine 2004), Green Revolution (Iran), Jasmine Revolution,
Arab Spring and even Hong Kong's Umbrella Revolution
6. Start protests for whatever reasons to kick off the revolution. It could be human
rights, democracy, government corruption or electoral fraud. Evidence isn't necessary; an excuse
will do.
7. Write protest signs and banners in English to let Americans see and get Americans politicians
and civilians involved.
8. Let those corrupted politicians, intellectuals and union leaders join the protests and
call upon all people with grievances to join
9. The US and European mainstream media help by continuously emphasizing that the revolution
is caused by injustice and thereby gaining the support of the majority
10. When the whole world is watching stage a false-flag action. The target government
will soon be destabilized and lose support among its people
11. Add in violent agent provocateurs to provoke the police to use force. This will cause
the target government to lose the support of other countries and become "delegitimized" by
the international community
12. Send politicians to the US, EU, the UN to petition so that the target government
will face the threat of economic sanctions, no-fly zones and even airstrikes and an armed rebel
uprising
The Kremlin is starting to worry about Donald Trump
http://read.bi/2l25rQD via @Business
Insider - Feb 17
... Russian policymakers, obsessed as they are with the fear of "color revolutions," may
understand better than Americans and Europeans the radical nature of the political change that
has descended on Washington. ...
Still, can you please try to answer the question posted: How close are we to the standard for
color revolutions false flag operation in which "unidentified gunmen" shoot unarmed protesters
from rooftops and the incident is blamed on Trump supporters.
I can only guess who are the members of your "team USA". With your jingoism and anti-Russian stance,
I assume that they include such people:
Charles Krauthammer
David Frum
Douglas Feith
John McCain
Lindsey Graham
Michael Ledeen
Paul Wolfowitz
Richard Perle
Robert Kagan
Samantha Power
Scooter Libby
Susan Rice
Victoria Nuland
... ... ...
If so, you are in good company... Don't forget to buy M16, ammunition and tickets to Syria.
We probably will be able to survive without your posts for some time.
It's worth noting that Mr Trump's major hometown newspaper, and the major papers in Boston, Washington,
LA & elsewhere are Seriously Concerned about his presidency.
That in itself is unsettling, and
that is perhaps all there is to it. TV news outlets, except for Fox & MSNBC, make some effort
at neutrality, it seems.
> "It's worth noting that Mr Trump's major hometown newspaper, and the major papers in Boston,
Washington, LA & elsewhere are Seriously Concerned
about his presidency."
Yes, I agree that it is worth noting. See p.3 and 9 in the 12 points list above.
Fox News anchor Chris Wallace cautioned his colleagues and the network's viewers Sunday that
President Donald Trump's latest attack on the media had gone too far.
''Look, we're big boys. We criticize presidents. They want to criticize us back, that's fine,''
Wallace said Sunday morning on ''Fox & Friends.'' ''But when he said that the fake news media
is not my enemy, it's the enemy of the American people, I believe that crosses an important line.''
The ''Fox & Friends'' anchors had shown a clip of Trump recounting that past presidents, including
Thomas Jefferson and Abraham Lincoln, had fought with the press. They then asked Wallace whether
Trump's fraught relationship with the media was a big deal.
In response, Wallace told his colleagues that Jefferson had also once written the following:
''And were it left to me to decide whether we should have a government without newspapers, or
newspapers without a government, I should not hesitate a moment to prefer the latter.''
Context was important, Wallace said. All presidents fight with the media, but Trump had taken
it a step further in making them out to be ''the enemy,'' he added. ...
(Trump is very pugnacious, clearly, and will
not allow the media to have the last word, ever.)
Flynn could have said something
"inappropriate" by a Clintonista definition of "inappropriate", and he "could" be prosecuted
under a law designed to muzzle US citizens, that has never been tried bc a Bill of rights argument
would win!
How do you like the NKVD libruls afraid of Trump bringing fascism who were running
a gestapo (the FBI wiring tapping other country's Ministers) on US citizens of the opposing
party?
If the fascists are coming they would keep Obama's FBI!
"... Second, the empirical evidence for a vertical Phillips curve and the associated hypothesis that lowering unemployment past the NAIRU leads to unacceptable acceleration of inflation is weak, and has become much weaker in the past decade. Third, viewed collectively, attempts to estimate the location of the NAIRU have become a professional embarrassment; disagreements remain on too many basic issues. Fourth, adherence to the concept as a guide to policy has major costs and negligible benefits. Conversely, the risks of dropping the natural rate hypothesis are minor, while the benefits from a sustained pursuit of full employment could be substantial. ..."
First is
Dean Baker's post about the latest Economic Report of the President's "insight into the question
of how fast the economy can grow, and more importantly how low the unemployment rate can go."
Economists have long held the view that lower rates of unemployment would be associated with rising
rates of inflation and vice versa. When the Federal Reserve Board decides to raise interest rates
to slow the economy it is based on the belief that unemployment is falling to a level that would
be associated with a rising rate of inflation.
Most economists now put the unemployment rate at which inflation starts to rise somewhere near
the current 4.9 percent rate. (This is called the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment
or NAIRU.) So does the ERP. But its analysis suggests a somewhat different story.
Second is Jamie Galbraith's 1997 -- that's almost 20 years ago -- Journal of Economic Perspectives
article, "
Time to
ditch the NAIRU "
First, the theoretical case for the natural rate is not compelling. Second, the empirical evidence
for a vertical Phillips curve and the associated hypothesis that lowering unemployment past the
NAIRU leads to unacceptable acceleration of inflation is weak, and has become much weaker in the
past decade. Third, viewed collectively, attempts to estimate the location of the NAIRU have become
a professional embarrassment; disagreements remain on too many basic issues. Fourth, adherence
to the concept as a guide to policy has major costs and negligible benefits. Conversely, the risks
of dropping the natural rate hypothesis are minor, while the benefits from a sustained pursuit
of full employment could be substantial.
G. Friedman's projections may well be wrong. But the argument that they are "implausible" is based
on uncompelling theory, weak empirical evidence, embarrassing estimates and "a guide to policy [that]
has major costs and negligible benefits."
But, hey, you can't criticize the top wonks if the they don't come right out and say it.
UPDATE:
John T. Harvey writes, at Forbes:
In the words of Christina Romer, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisors under Barack
Obama:
"Just as there is no regularity in the timing of business cycles, there is no reason why cycles
have to occur at all. The prevailing view among economists is that there is a level of economic
activity, often referred to as full employment*, at which the economy could stay forever."
*Often referred to as full employment? War is Peace. Freedom is Slavery. Ignorance is Strength. NAIRU
is full employment.
Peter K. -> sanjait...
I agree with what Krugman once said: wait to raise rates until you see the whites of inflation's
eyes.
Pretty much what Bernie Sanders said.
Then Krugman changed his tune when he hoped for a position in the Clinton administration. He stopped
criticizing the Fed altogether and now is defending it as it raise rates to slow Trump's economy.
Two links for you: candidates don't need to be experts about everything
Actually he has said wait to raise rates until you see the whites of inflation's eyes. The part
about Krugman changing his tune is indeed full of shit.
Neil Irwin Warns of Financial Crisis from Corporate Tax
Reform
This is really getting over the top. Republicans in
Congress are debating an overhaul of the corporate income tax
which would eliminate many of the opportunities for gaming
the current tax code. To my mind this is great news, because
the tax gaming industry is where many of the richest people
in the country, like private equity fund partners, make their
money.
This means that the current corporate tax code is a
mechanism for transferring money from the rest of us to the
likes of Mitt Romney and Peter Peterson. It's understandable
that these people would be very upset by a plan to end their
tax gaming windfalls, but why is Neil Irwin at the New York
Times so upset?
The story he pushes is that border adjustability rules in
the proposed reform would create enormous disruptions in the
economy because it would lead to a sharp rise in the value of
the dollar. Irwin tosses around a hypothetical 25 percent
increase in the value of the dollar which he warns:
"could shift trillions of dollars of wealth from Americans
to foreigners; set off an emerging markets financial crisis;
wreak havoc in global oil markets; and cause sustained harm
to the American higher education and tourism industries
(including, as it happens, luxury hotels with President
Trump's name on them)."
Okay, this is more than a little bit silly.
Let's start with the 25 percent number. The idea is that
the dollar would rise enough to leave our trade balance more
or less unaffected even though we have imposed the tax on all
imports and refunded it on all exports. So if we were talking
about a tax rate of 25 percent on both, this sort of increase
in the value of the dollar would leave the price of U.S.
imports unchanged to people in the United States and the
price of U.S. exports unchanged for people living in other
countries.
The first problem with this story is that we're not
talking about a 25 percent tax, the number most often floated
is 20 percent. Furthermore, the amount rebated on exports
would be a small fraction of this number since the tax is not
assessed on wages, interest or dividend payments, or profits
that are reinvested. This likely means that the tax would be
in the range of 1 to 2 percent of the final price of the
product.
If we assume that the dollar fully adjusts to leave our
trade balance unchanged and we split the difference between a
2 percent fall in the price of our exports and a 20 percent
increase in the price of imports, we are looking at an 11
percent rise in the value of the dollar. If we assume that
the adjustment is less than 100 percent, say something like
75-80 percent, then we would be looking at a rise in the
value of the dollar of 9.0 percent.
If this sort of increase in the value of the dollar would
lead to a financial crisis in emerging markets, then we
should be seeing one now, because the dollar has risen by
roughly that amount against the currencies of our trading
partners since last spring. If there has been a crisis the
NYT has neglected to cover it.
Movements of this size happen all the time. They certainly
can cause problems, but the financial system generally deals
with it.
The global oil markets comment is especially annoying
because it repeats the ridiculous line about it being
important that oil is priced in dollars. It isn't. The
pricing in dollars is simply a convention. It is like we were
writing the price of oil up on a chalkboard. We need a unit
in which to measure the price. It could be euros, it could be
yen, it could be bushels of wheat. Due to the dominance of
the U.S. economy, the tradition has been to use dollars.
As a practical matter, oil is traded in whatever currency
is convenient for the trading partners. Most often this is
dollars, but it can be other currencies if the two parties
choose. Also, if the price of the dollar rises against other
currencies, then the dollar price of oil will typically fall.
The exception will be in situations where companies have
signed long-term contracts specified in dollars. In this
case, the buyer will take a hit and the lender will get a
windfall.
In this context, a 9 percent rise in the value of the
dollar matters, but nowhere near as much as the sixty percent
drop in the price of oil between 2014 and 2016 or even the 25
percent increase in the price of oil between the summer of
2016 and end of the year.
As far as the impact of the 9 percent rise in the value of
the dollar on U.S. higher education, well life is tough. The
same is true for our tourism industry (including the U.S.
based Trump hotels -- the foreign ones benefit). They can
console themselves with the fact that the hit is smaller than
what they just endured over the last eight months.
The basic story here is that this tax reform offers the
opportunity to eliminate a major channel through which income
is transferred from the rest of us to the very rich. We will
have to see the real life legislation to pass judgement. But
anyone who doesn't work for the private equity boys and the
rest of the tax shelter industry should be happy to see
Republicans in Congress considering something along these
lines. It should not be shot down for bogus reasons.
The Major
Potential Impact of a Corporate Tax
Overhaul
https://nyti.ms/2jOlTE9
via @UpshotNYT
NYT - Neil Irwin - January 7, 2017
The United States system for taxing businesses is a mess.
If there's one thing nearly everyone can agree upon, it is
that.
The current corporate income tax manages the weird trick
of both taxing companies at a higher statutory rate than
other advanced countries while collecting less money, as a
percentage of the overall economy, than most of them. It is
infinitely complicated and it gives companies incentives to
borrow too much money and move operations to countries with
lower tax rates.
Now, the moment for trying to fix all of that appears to
have arrived. With the House, Senate and presidency all soon
to be in Republican hands and with all agreeing that a major
tax bill is a top priority, some kind of change appears
likely to happen. And it may turn out to be a very big deal,
particularly if a tax plan that House Republicans proposed
last summer becomes the core of new legislation.
Among Washington's lobbying shops and policy analysis
crowd, it's known as a "destination-based cash flow tax with
border adjustment." It's easier to think of it as the most
substantial reworking of how businesses are taxed since the
corporate income tax was introduced a century ago. And it
could, if enacted, have big effects not just in the tax
departments of major corporations but in global financial
markets and the aisles of your local Walmart.
This possible revamping of the corporate tax code is less
politically polarizing than the debates sure to unfold in the
months ahead over health care, or even over individual income
taxes. But the consequences for business - and for the
long-term trajectory of the economy - are huge.
The basic idea behind a D.B.C.F.T. (to use the
abbreviation that has taken hold in a particularly nerdy
corner of Twitter) is this: Right now companies are taxed
based on their income generated in the United States. But
there are countless tricks that corporate accountants can
play to reduce the income companies report and to reduce
their tax burden, and those tricks distort the economy.
Two prime examples are transferring intellectual property
to overseas holding companies and engaging in corporate
inversions that move a company's legal headquarters to a
country with lower taxes. Moreover, because interest payments
on debt are tax-deductible, the current system makes it
appealing to take on as much debt as possible, even though
that can increase the risk of bankruptcy when a downturn
comes along.
The House Republicans' approach, instead of taxing the
easy-to-manipulate corporate income, goes after a firm's
domestic cash flow: money that comes in from sales within the
United States borders minus money that goes out to pay
employees and buy supplies and so forth. There's no incentive
to play games with overseas companies that exist only to
exploit tax differences or to relocate production to
countries with lower taxes because you'll be taxed on things
you sell in the United States, regardless.
"With an income tax, one of the key issues is 'how do you
measure income,' " said Alan Auerbach, an economist at the
University of California, Berkeley, who is a leading advocate
of the idea. "But with cash flow you just follow the money."
And the tax, Mr. Auerbach argues, could spur business
investment while not encouraging companies to rely on debt.
It allows companies to enjoy the tax savings of capital
investments immediately rather than depreciating them over
time. And it doesn't give favorable treatment to debt, as
opposed to equity.
That alone would amount to a major shift in the tax
system. Congressional staff members, the incoming
administration and armies of lobbyists will spend countless
hours hammering out the details of any such proposal: how it
might be phased in, and how to treat financial services, and
much more.
Some of the most complex, and politically problematic,
elements of the plan revolve around its treatment of
international trade, which creates winners and losers. And
some of those potential losers are powerful.
Consider what border adjustment means: When an American
company exports goods under this new tax system, it would not
pay any taxes on its international sales, while its imports
would be taxed. So a company that spent $80 making something
that it sold overseas for $100 would pay no tax on its
earnings. A company that imported goods worth $80 from abroad
and them sold them domestically for $100 would pay tax on the
full $100.
At first glance this looks as if it would boost exports
and reduce the trade deficit. Indeed, it might prove
politically promising for advocates of the strategy to pitch
the plan as one that would do this.
Many economists think it won't work that way, however.
That's because as soon as a cash-flow-based tax with border
adjustment looks likely to become law, the value of the
dollar should rise in currency markets. And that stronger
dollar could eliminate the apparent pro-export, anti-import
effects of the tax. The dollar could rise by, say, 20 to 25
percent, and the trade balance could remain about where it
started.
Essentially, moving to this system means betting on a
"textbook economic theory," as analysts at Evercore ISI put
it, becoming a reality even though the effect hasn't been
tested in practice.
If the dollar doesn't strengthen as expected, for example,
import-dependent industries, especially those with lean
profit margins, could face disaster. That helps explain why
some of the stiffest opposition to this tax overhaul is
coming from the retail industry. Essentially, economists are
telling them "trust us, our models say the currency will
adjust and it will all come out in the wash," but if the
models are wrong, for companies like Walmart, Target and many
others that sell large volumes of imported goods, their
viability could be threatened.
If the models turn out to be right, there is a different
set of risks. The United States dollar is the linchpin of the
global financial system, and a large move in its value
triggered by changes in domestic tax policy could have
unforeseen effects.
Many companies worldwide, especially banks and especially
in emerging markets, have debt denominated in dollars, which
would become more of a burden after a new dollar
appreciation. A big dollar rise would also effectively shift
trillions in wealth from American investments overseas toward
global investors with assets in the United States.
As Jared Bernstein of the Center on Budget and Policy
Priorities has noted (*), we don't really know what the
distributional consequences of this tax overhaul would be. It
could increase the costs of imported goods that the poor
spend a disproportionate portion of their income on, like
clothing and gasoline. That would be bad news for poorer
Americans even as it makes the overall economy more
efficient.
There's still a lot of work to be done to understand the
far-reaching consequences of the D.B.C.F.T. (also, work to be
done to find a catchier name). But there's a broader point
about the nature of any major policy reform. The benefits of
a reworked corporate tax code would emerge slowly; these
disruptions and costs could arrive almost instantly.
No matter the outcome, 2017 will be a fascinating year in
which core components of the tax system - with long-lasting
economic consequences - will be up for grabs.
* My take on the Republicans' new, interesting corporate
tax plan
https://wpo.st/m-8b2
Jared Bernstein - December 30
A lot of folks - okay, four people, but that's a lot for
this sort of thing - have asked me what I think of this new
tax idea Republicans are pushing to replace the current
corporate tax: a destination based, border-adjusted tax on
cash flow. (Let's call it a BAT - border-adjustment tax - as
does the CNNMoney team in this useful explainer (*); it even
has a hashtag: #DBCFT.) Sounds tricky, but the basics are
straightforward, and have more appeal than you might think.
But there are also legitimate concerns, not the least of
which is that the BAT is one potentially good part of a
really damaging tax package. ...
... the main problem with the BAT is that it's part of a
big, highly regressive tax plan that ultimately delivers
virtually all of its benefits to the top 1 percent while
stiffing the Treasury, on net, of much needed revenue. As
I've written in many places, both this plan and
President-elect Donald Trump's plan are nothing more than the
latest entries in the failed trickle-down tax cut experiment.
Their ultimate goals to further enrich the wealthy, shrink
government and force large deficits could well put social
insurance programs on the chopping block.
If so, the BAT, for all its potentially useful attributes,
is a swing and a miss.
* Trump's tariffs or tax reform: Which will Congress pick?
http://cnnmon.ie/2iEdcMP
via @CNNMoney - Dec 28
"Right now companies are taxed based on their income
generated in the United States. But there are countless
tricks that corporate accountants can play to reduce the
income companies report and to reduce their tax burden, and
those tricks distort the economy. Two prime examples are
transferring intellectual property to overseas holding
companies and engaging in corporate inversions that move a
company's legal headquarters to a country with lower taxes."
DBCFT would make this form of tax evasion even easier.
Solution? Don't think so.
A spike in inflation is their criticism? There are all sorts
of real issues with respect to the proposed tax change. A
little expected inflation is not really one of them. And even
if expected inflation went up a bit - I would argue that
would be a good thing as real interest rates are still too
high for my taste.
"... Privilege: still exorbitant. Here's a nice analysis of the international role of the dollar. This is the same argument I tried to make in my Roosevelt Institute piece on trade policy last summer. The Economist* says it better: ..."
"... "Unlike other aspects of American hegemony, the dollar has grown more important as the world has globalised, not less. As economies opened their capital markets in the 1980s and 1990s, global capital flows surged. Yet most governments sought exchange-rate stability amid the sloshing tides of money. They managed their exchange rates using massive piles of foreign-exchange reserves Global reserves have grown from under $1trn in the 1980s to more than $10trn today. ..."
"... Dollar-denominated assets account for much of those reserves. Governments worry more about big swings in the dollar than in other currencies; trade is often conducted in dollar terms; and firms and governments owe roughly $10trn in dollar-denominated debt. the dollar is, on some measures, more central to the global system now than it was immediately after the second world war. ..."
"... America wields enormous financial power as a result. It can wreak havoc by withholding supplies of dollars in a crisis. When the Federal Reserve tweaks monetary policy, the effects ripple across the global economy. Hélène Rey of the London Business School argues that, despite their reserve holdings, many economies have lost full control over their domestic monetary policy, because of the effect of Fed policy on global appetite for risk. ..."
"... America's return on its foreign assets is markedly higher than the return foreign investors earn on their American assets That flow of investment income allows America to run persistent current-account deficits -- to buy more than it produces year after year, decade after decade." ..."
Privilege: still exorbitant. Here's a nice analysis of the international role of the dollar.
This is the same argument I tried to make in my Roosevelt Institute piece on trade policy last
summer. The Economist* says it better:
"Unlike other aspects of American hegemony, the dollar has grown more important as the
world has globalised, not less. As economies opened their capital markets in the 1980s and 1990s,
global capital flows surged. Yet most governments sought exchange-rate stability amid the sloshing
tides of money. They managed their exchange rates using massive piles of foreign-exchange reserves
Global reserves have grown from under $1trn in the 1980s to more than $10trn today.
Dollar-denominated assets account for much of those reserves. Governments worry more about
big swings in the dollar than in other currencies; trade is often conducted in dollar terms; and
firms and governments owe roughly $10trn in dollar-denominated debt. the dollar is, on some
measures, more central to the global system now than it was immediately after the second world
war.
America wields enormous financial power as a result. It can wreak havoc by withholding
supplies of dollars in a crisis. When the Federal Reserve tweaks monetary policy, the effects
ripple across the global economy. Hélène Rey of the London Business School argues that, despite
their reserve holdings, many economies have lost full control over their domestic monetary policy,
because of the effect of Fed policy on global appetite for risk.
During the heyday of Bretton Woods, Valéry Giscard d'Estaing, a French finance minister (later
president), complained about the "exorbitant privilege" enjoyed by the issuer of the world's reserve
currency. America's return on its foreign assets is markedly higher than the return foreign
investors earn on their American assets That flow of investment income allows America to run
persistent current-account deficits -- to buy more than it produces year after year, decade after
decade."
Exactly right. You can have free capital mobility, or you can have a balanced trade for the
US. But you can't have both, as long as the world depends on dollar reserves."
"... As we discussed long form in ECONNED, orthodox economics rests on the assumption that economies have a natural propensity to equilibrium, and that equilibrium is full employment. ..."
"... their mathematical exposition enables them to dismiss lay critics. ..."
I hate to come off like a nay-sayer, because I have no doubt that the underlying methodology
is useful. But this sounds an awful lot like a new improved version of system dynamics, which the
economics profession successfully beat back in the 1970s.
As we discussed long form in ECONNED, orthodox economics rests on the assumption that
economies have a natural propensity to equilibrium, and that equilibrium is full employment.
As Paul Samuelson stressed, that assumption is necessary for economics to be science, as in
mathed up, and the dominance that economists have achieved is due to their scientific appearances
and the fact that their mathematical exposition enables them to dismiss lay critics.
"... They focused on Dennis Carlton , a professor at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, and a senior managing director at the consulting firm Compass Lexecon . According to Eisinger and Elliott, Carlton has been paid more than $100 million from consulting activities during his career. ..."
"... Mergers can hurt consumers by giving companies increased market power. The less competitive an industry is, the more the big companies can raise prices, which not only makes life more painful for consumers, but limits the size of the market itself, reducing economic productivity. ..."
"... Obviously, if consultants like Carlton are being paid by the companies that want to merge, they have an incentive to use economics to predict a rosy outcome instead of a bad one. But how easy is that? In an ideal world, it would be very difficult to get away with using economic models to make slanted forecasts. If a certain type of model repeatedly got things wrong in biology or electrical engineering, professors would toss it out, and it would probably no longer be used in most court cases. ..."
"... Does this mean that the theoretical models used by merger consultants like Carlton are wrong? Not necessarily. It just means that it's very hard to know either way. As Eisinger and Elliott demonstrate, however, the models have been known to make some pretty big mistakes. One example they cite is the merger of appliance makers Maytag Corp. and Whirlpool Corp. in 2005. Carlton, hired by those companies, wrote that international competition would prevent the new super-company from raising prices. But he was wrong, and prices went up. ..."
"... The threat of excessive industrial concentration is worth paying more attention to. Economists increasingly are focusing on the harms that monopoly power might be causing. In addition to the well-known effect of higher prices, industrial concentration might exacerbate inequality and decrease labor's share of national income. It might also be reducing business dynamism, which has taken a dive since 2000. ..."
Amid the blizzard of election news last November, two writers at the nonprofit news organization
ProPublica came out with a startling
investigative report . Jesse Eisinger and Justin Elliott wrote about a small but very wealthy
group of American economists who make millions of dollars helping companies deal with the federal
government on antitrust cases.
They focused on
Dennis
Carlton , a professor at the University of Chicago's Booth School of Business, and a senior managing
director at the consulting firm Compass
Lexecon . According to Eisinger and Elliott, Carlton has been paid more than $100 million from
consulting activities during his career.
That's an astounding sum, and it demonstrates how lucrative the economics profession can be for
those who reach the top echelons. But the ProPublica reporters suggest that much of this fortune
may have been made at the public's expense. Carlton and economists like him are mostly hired by companies
that want to do big mergers and acquisitions. This basically involves convincing the government --
which reviews all large corporate acquisitions -- that the merger won't hurt consumers.
Mergers can hurt consumers by giving companies increased market power. The less competitive an
industry is, the more the big companies can raise prices, which not only makes life more painful
for consumers, but limits the size of the market itself, reducing economic productivity. Any time
two companies want to merge, there's the possibility that the result could be a more efficient company,
which would lead to lower prices as production costs decline. But there's also the possibility of
a less efficient market, where prices rise because of increased monopoly power. You need economics
to predict which of these will happen.
Obviously, if consultants like Carlton are being paid by the companies that want to merge, they
have an incentive to use economics to predict a rosy outcome instead of a bad one. But how easy is
that? In an ideal world, it would be very difficult to get away with using economic models to make
slanted forecasts. If a certain type of model repeatedly got things wrong in biology or electrical
engineering, professors would toss it out, and it would probably no longer be used in most court
cases.
Econ is different. Despite a recent turn away from pure theory and toward empirical work, the
profession doesn't always insist on the most rigorous standards of evidence. Economists Joshua Angrist
and Jörn-Steffen Pischke have criticized the field of industrial organization, which deals with competition
and monopoly power. They say that
it still relies on obsolete theoretical models laden with questionable assumptions.
Does this mean that the theoretical models used by merger consultants like Carlton are wrong?
Not necessarily. It just means that it's very hard to know either way. As Eisinger and Elliott demonstrate,
however, the models have been known to make some pretty big mistakes. One example they cite is the
merger of appliance makers Maytag Corp. and Whirlpool Corp. in 2005. Carlton, hired by those companies,
wrote that international competition would prevent the new super-company from raising prices. But
he was wrong, and prices went up.
This sort of result seems to be the norm in recent years. Northwestern University economist John
Kwoka has written
an entire book in which he documents how lax U.S. antitrust policy has resulted in less competition
and higher prices -- the kind of thing the high-flying consultants are paid to say won't happen.
The threat of excessive industrial concentration is worth paying more attention to. Economists
increasingly are focusing on the harms that monopoly power might be causing. In addition to the well-known
effect of higher prices, industrial concentration might exacerbate inequality and decrease
labor's share of national income. It might also be reducing business dynamism, which has
taken a dive since 2000.
So it probably makes sense to take a harder look at antitrust policy in general and merger consultants
more specifically. The U.S. system may simply be too lenient. It may rely too much on the testimony
of well-paid experts, who are able to use their models to reach the desired conclusion. One solution
might be for the government to review the predictions of expert consultants, and see whether they
end up being right or wrong -- something that Eisinger and Elliott say isn't done now. The results
of these follow-up studies could be made public, so courts and regulators know the track record of
a given model or consultant.
That's just one possibility. Any solution to this problem, though, should follow the principle
of greater empiricism. The more weight is given to evidence, and the less to theoretical assumptions,
the better it will be for the American consumer. Economics is becoming more empirical, and the lucrative
world of legal consulting should follow suit.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and
its owners.
To contact the author of this story:
Noah Smith at [email protected]
"These Professors Make More Than a Thousand Bucks an Hour
Peddling Mega-Mergers - The economists are leveraging their
academic prestige with secret reports justifying corporate
concentration. Their predictions are often wrong and
consumers pay the price."
That is just the headline. Way down in the discussion
comes the most damning statement:
"These complex mathematical formulations carry weight with
the government because they purport to be objective. But a
ProPublica examination of several marquee deals found that
economists sometimes salt away inconvenient data in footnotes
and suppress negative findings, stretching the standards of
intellectual honesty to promote their clients' interests."
Of course the government is supposed to hire its own world
class economists to review the evidence as well. The problem,
however, is that these government agencies are often
underfunded. It is hard to compete with the mega-firms who
pay $1000 an hour for a consultant when the entire budget for
the government review agency is only $100,000. Penny wise,
pound foolish.
'Obama and others have handed him (Trump) a pretty well
functioning economy'...not the only way that Obama set the
table for Trump. We also have a terrifying NSA to thank Obama
for. With SCOTUS in hand, all the pieces are in place for a
police state.
I am not that worried yet. The 2016 election was part Mad
Magazine "What, me Worry?" And the other part was "What
Hillary? You got to be kidding me!"
It was also a backlash
reaction to globalization and persistently low wages, both
accumulating over a long time now. There are a lot of kinds
of backlash and we have the potential for all of them in our
American diversity. Which one will be next?
The faux librul side is all Joe McCarthy phony red scaring
and surveillance of the opposition activists sort of like
what Army Intell did to hippies protesting the liberals'
debacle in Southeast Asia.
Deep state surveillance and
trashing the Bill of Rights is a legacy of the past 8 years.
There is no question that at least some policies Trump is
proposing will boost corporate profits at least in the short
run. Not irrational at all for stock market to be up,
especially backed up for now by steadily growing
non-inflationary economy that Trump has inherited.
And you
thought you were being ironic, didn't you, Peter K.? :-)
"... This point has been made before on Obamacare, but the tendency behind it, the tendency to muddle
and mask benefits, has become endemic to center-left politics. Either Democrats complicate their initiatives
enough to be inscrutable to anyone who doesn't love reading hours of explainers on public policy, or
else they don't take credit for the few simple policies they do enact. Let's run through a few examples.
..."
"... missed the point the big winner is FIRE. ACA should have been everyone in medicare, and have
medicare run Part B not FIRE. Obamcare is welfare for FIRE, who sabotage it with huge deductibles and
raging rises in premium.. ..."
As Democrats stare down eight years of policies being wiped out within months, it's worth looking
at why those policies did virtually nothing for their electoral success at any level. And, in
the interest of supporting a united front between liberals and socialists, let me start this off
with a rather long quote from Matt Christman of Chapo Trap House, on why Obamacare failed to gain
more popularity:
There are parts to it that are unambiguously good - like, Medicaid expansion is good, and why?
Because there's no f!@#ing strings attached. You don't have to go to a goddamned website and become
a f@!#ing hacker to try to figure out how to pick the right plan, they just tell you "you're covered
now." And that's it! That's all it ever should have been and that is why - [Jonathan Chait] is
bemoaning why it's a political failure? Because modern neoliberal, left-neoliberal policy is all
about making this shit invisible to people so that they don't know what they're getting out of
it.
And as Rick Perlstein has talked about a lot, that's one of the reasons that Democrats end
up f!@#$ing themselves over. The reason they held Congress for 40 years after enacting Social
Security is because Social Security was right in your f!@ing face. They could say to you, "you
didn't used to have money when you were old, now you do. Thank Democrats." And they f!@#ing did.
Now it's, "you didn't used to be able to log on to a website and negotiate between 15 different
providers to pick a platinum or gold or zinc plan and apply a f!@#$ing formula for a subsidy that's
gonna change depending on your income so you might end up having to retroactively owe money or
have a higher premium." Holy shit, thank you so much.
This point has been made before on Obamacare, but the tendency behind it, the tendency
to muddle and mask benefits, has become endemic to center-left politics. Either Democrats complicate
their initiatives enough to be inscrutable to anyone who doesn't love reading hours of explainers
on public policy, or else they don't take credit for the few simple policies they do enact. Let's
run through a few examples.
missed the point the big winner is FIRE. ACA should have been everyone in medicare, and have
medicare run Part B not FIRE. Obamcare is welfare for FIRE, who sabotage it with huge deductibles
and raging rises in premium..
Fox News anchor Chris Wallace cautioned his colleagues and
the network's viewers Sunday that President Donald Trump's
latest attack on the media had gone too far.
''Look, we're big boys. We criticize presidents. They want
to criticize us back, that's fine,'' Wallace said Sunday
morning on ''Fox & Friends.'' ''But when he said that the
fake news media is not my enemy, it's the enemy of the
American people, I believe that crosses an important line.''
The ''Fox & Friends'' anchors had shown a clip of Trump
recounting that past presidents, including Thomas Jefferson
and Abraham Lincoln, had fought with the press. They then
asked Wallace whether Trump's fraught relationship with the
media was a big deal.
In response, Wallace told his colleagues that Jefferson
had also once written the following: ''And were it left to me
to decide whether we should have a government without
newspapers, or newspapers without a government, I should not
hesitate a moment to prefer the latter.''
Context was important, Wallace said. All presidents fight
with the media, but Trump had taken it a step further in
making them out to be ''the enemy,'' he added. ...
(Trump is very pugnacious, clearly, and will
not allow the media to have the last word, ever.)
Current and longstanding world leader in military colonialism.
"Since 2014, China has been building islands in the middle of the South China Sea. What were
once underwater reefs are now sandy islands complete with airfields, roads, buildings, and missile
systems. In less than two years, China has turned seven reefs into seven military bases in the
South China Sea, one of the most contentious bodies of water in the world.
The sea is one of the most important areas of ocean in the world. It's estimated to hold 11
billion barrels of oil, 109 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, and 10 percent of the world's
fisheries. Most importantly, 30 percent of the world's shipping trade flows through the South
China Sea to the busy ports of Southeast Asia. It's an incredibly important strategic area, and
five countries currently claim some part of it.
Most countries base their claims off the United Nations Law of the Seas, which says a country's
territory extends 200 miles off its shores, an area called the exclusive economic zone, or EEZ.
Any trade or resources that fall in a country's EEZ belong to that country; they're its sovereign
territory. Any area that is not in an EEZ is considered international waters and subject to UN
maritime law, meaning it's shared by everyone. Every country in the region, which includes Malaysia,
the Philippines, Brunei, and Vietnam, bases its claim to the South China Sea on the UN's EEZ laws
- except China.
China argues it has a historical claim to the South China Sea, dating back to naval expeditions
in the 15th century."
I define military colonization as the use of force to steal another countries resources. If we
actually took Iraq's oil(or other countries resources), then the US could be in the running. But
we haven't, and once again your comments are based on nothing.
You limit militarist colonialism to make war mongering neocon democrats look good and China bad.
Obama's surges and paying the Army to rioll out new COIN doctrine!
I define militarism as organized murder, US has the monopoly by several million body bags over
China.
I forgot Obama was going out of Iraq and Afghanistan until he considered his nobel and came
up with the doctrine of "unjust peace" must be stopped with organized murder with no end ever
to the profit.
I know Mao killed a few more Chinese than the Kuomintang would have.....
Sorry, we have different ideas. I am not defending US military actions, never have. And I certainly
agree that many of those actions(though not all) were based on economic concerns. That, imho,
does not equate to invading a country; killing a third of its population; dominating everyone
left alive; and taking every single natural resource as your own.
That is what the Chinese did to Tibet. That is what the Chinese(minus the invasion and killing
so far) is going to do to the South China Sea. If you think they are remotely the same as the
US, we will disagree.
Let me know when we take over the oil fields in the Middle East.
Actually, I would have to say that we have been a major leader in military colonialism, going
back to the Spanish-American War. Russia also belongs in that group. Iraq is very much part of
that. China has not historically been one, though they do seem to be moving in that direction.
A lot of factors maybe but zero articulation on how they impacted either the national savings rate or net investment/income. Not
that they are not relevant but a list is not an explanation without at least some discussion.
I am thinking that it is neoliberalism that created the
current political instability and should be in the center of
our attention, not Trump.
Trump is just an artifact created
by the current crisis of neoliberalism.
The whole idea of redistribution wealth to the top is
extremely destabilizing. And now with Trump chicken start
coming home to roost.
Neoliberalism created the fundamental positive feedback
loop in which the financialization of the economy undermines
the rest of it.
It is somewhat similar to what happens in animal world:
the main danger for the population of predators are not other
predators, but a sudden and dramatic collapse of the
population of prey. Which is what is in the center of the
current crisis and secured the election of Trump.
The myth of capital strike. I was more on Team Streeck
than Team Tooze in their great LRB showdown.* But this
followup post by Tooze** is very smart. Mostly he's just
trying to bring some much-needed order to a complicated set
of debates about the role of private finance, credit markets,
central banks and the state. But he also scores, I think, a
stronger point against Streeck than in the LRB review:
Streeck exaggerates the threat of capital strike in modern
"managed-money" economies. As Tooze says:
Greece, Spain, Portugal, Ireland even Italy and France all
experienced bond market attacks. But this is because they
were left by the ECB in a situation which was as though they
had borrowed their entire sovereign debt in a foreign
currency with no central bank support. That peculiarity is
the result of deliberate political construction. To
generalize and reify it into a general theory of capitalist
democracy in crisis is highly misleading.
I think Tooze is right: behind the apparent power of the
bondholders there's always either a hostile central bank, or
else other, stronger countries.
There is the famous case of Bill Clinton dropping his
campaign pledge of a middle class spending bill in favor of
deficit reduction, succumbing to the arguments of Robert
Rubin and Greenspan.
DeLong defends it. PGL lies about it
b/c he is dishonest about economic history.
But really Greenspan told Clinton that if he didn't reduce
the deficit that he'd raise rates and kill his chance of
re-election. It was blackmail.
[James Carville joked that he wanted to be reincarnated as
the bond market.]
Maybe that spurred "national savings" and private
investment but that investment also gave us the Tech stock
bubble which led to the jobless recovery of the Bush years
which morphed into the epic housing bubble.
To be fair, BDL gives a very clear account of this episode in
that old "Republic of the Central Banker" piece and
elsewhere. Makes it clear it was Greenspan, not "the
markets", that vetoed the stimulus, just as you say.
This one? I wasn't aware of it but thanks again for the
heads up
I'm not an expert but just vaguely remember DeLong
defending Clinton's deficit reduction in a straight-forward
honest manner because real interest rates were high or
something. It was an honest defense of his slightly
neoliberal center-left political philosophical beliefs.
But point taken. My poor wording seemed to have BDL defending
Greenspan. As I said I just remember BDL defending Clinton's
approach to deficit reduction in that it led to the glorious
90s.
In mind BDL seems to veer back and forth from brutally
honest wide lens accounts, to narrowly defending Democrats.
"... John Kenneth Galbraith laid out the problem of companies with too much market/political power back in the 1950s and 60s. I never read Galbraith in an economics course, only on my own. Economists were not interested...not enough mathematics and marginal this equals marginal that. ..."
John Kenneth Galbraith laid out the problem of companies with
too much market/political power back in the 1950s and 60s. I
never read Galbraith in an economics course, only on my own.
Economists were not interested...not enough mathematics and
marginal this equals marginal that.
Nothing like
overlooking the elephant is the room...something that
economists are better at doing than trying to do their jobs.
Peter, what's your solution to the "lesser evil" dilemma? I
sympathize with your frustration, and I'm on board with your
complaint over how Bernie was treated. But when it actually
comes time vote in the general election, what's the solution?
I keep thinking that if progressive voters had held their
noses in 2000 and voted for Gore, we'd almost certainly have
never gratuitously invaded Iraq, avoided squandering hundreds
of thousands of lives and saved trillions of dollars.
You pose a very tough question. If we stick with the lesser
evil then lacking any competition they will stick it to us.
That is what happens when you have no choice. We have seen it
already. One can hardly consider the Republican Party a
choice if one works for a living and is well informed.
The
only thing that I have ever come up with is an
anti-incumbency solidarity movement that holds re-election of
all politicians at both the state and Federal level hostage
until they deliver on ratified constitutional amendments that
provide real campaign finance reform, an absolute end to
gerrymandering, a ranked/preferential/instant-runoff style
replacement for first past the post voting, legislative term
limits of reasonably long but well short of lifetime
duration, and popular election petition and referendum power
to overturn select SCOTUS decisions (notable citizens unite -
but who knows what would be next).
The solution is to have an open and honest debate.
I agree
that we shouldn't hold Democrats to impossible standards but
we should hold them accountable.
There are too many economists who just give Democrats a
pass and don't present an unvarnished history of what
happened policy-wise. They spin and present alternative
facts.
Look, I voted for Hillary in the general. Sanders
campaigned hard for her and he was easy on her during the
primary. He didn't go after her e-mails, etc. I think that
was the proper approach, even if Hillary supporters treated
Bernie unfairly.
Because of 9/11 I think Bush turned out a lot worse than
people expected. Still, now with President Trump people look
back fondly on Bush.
When the plutocrats found themselves losing the political
battle back in the 60s, Lewis Powell suggested a plan of
action:
" Businessmen of the World, Unite!
The organizational counterattack of business in the 1970s
was swift and sweeping - a domestic version of Shock and Awe.
The number of corporations with public affairs offices in
Washington grew from 100 in 1968 to over 500 in 1978. In
1971, only 175 firms had registered lobbyists in Washington,
but by 1982, nearly 2,500 did. The number of corporate PACs
increased from under 300 in 1976 to over 1,200 by the middle
of 1980.[5] On every dimension of corporate political
activity, the numbers reveal a dramatic, rapid mobilization
of business resources in the mid-1970s.
What the numbers alone cannot show is something of
potentially even greater significance: Employers learned how
to work together to achieve shared political goals. As
members of coalitions, firms could mobilize more proactively
and on a much broader front. Corporate leaders became
advocates not just for the narrow interests of their firms
but also for the shared interests of business as a whole.
.....................
http://billmoyers.com/content/the-powell-memo-a-call-to-arms-for-corporations/
.......................................
Bernie Sanders showed that a populist message could
resonate with a yuuuge number of people. And those people
would respond via the internet.
Unfortunately the DNC quashed that movement in the
primaries and Sanders has not followed through since.
I would guess that Bernies's message is still valid but
isn't being broadcast effectively. A focusing organization is
needed to marshall the anger and upset among the populace.
Our Revolution was supposed to do that but hasn't taken off.
An effective focusing organization is needed and progressives
need to get behind it.
People should absolutely read and understand Powell's memo -
it's the clear game plan that the
pro-business/anti-government crowd has faithfully followed to
reverse the progressive tide of the '60's. Where we are now
is no accident, nor the result of unintended consequences of
policies.
What progressives lack is such a clear strategy - and an
organizational framework - for taking back the initiative
from these reactionary forces. There are multiple polls and
studies that document the fact that the majority of Americans
back progressive policies, whether they be progressive
taxation, preservation and enhancement of entitlement
programs, humane immigration policies, and non-discriminatory
employment and law enforcement policies, among others. What
progressives generally lack is crisp and coherent messaging
that shows their commitment to these policies, demonstrates
the right's opposition to them, and doesn't get lost in the
minutiae of a plethora of policy proposals.
Fight it out in the primaries and then quit your bitching in
the general.
That is how you will get the best policy
outcome you can get.
If Bernie had won the primary and Hillary PUMAs came out
in force, they would be as worthy of derision as are the
Busters and the cynical More Progressive Than Thous are
currently.
Hmmm... I get, and agree with, the recommendation embedded in
your first two sentences - though I think the force of the
language is a bit over the top. It's a bit naive to expect
that people who hold strong opinions will simply fall into
line with a choice that they're not necessarily enthusiastic
about. This is consistent with the solution suggested by
Peter K, and largely consistent I suspect with RC AKA Darryl,
Ron's views, as well (if I can speak for both of them).
However, I have no idea what you mean in your last
paragraph. If you're suggesting that Bernie backers, as a
group, are worthy of derision then I strongly disagree. I was
a strong Bernie backer during the primaries, and campaigned
and contributed to his effort. Then, when he lost I held my
nose and did the same for Hillary. I'm pretty sure a majority
of Bernie voters did the same, while acknowledging many did
not. However, the evidence supports the view that the DNC
skewed the process to favor Hillary - and I think
progressives have a legitimate complaint over that. Would
Bernie have won in an open, democratically run primary
process? We'll never know - and that's the point. What we do
know is that a enough otherwise Democratic voters were
sufficiently unenthusiastic over the anointed choice to stay
home (and enough others voted for the opposition) to allow a
disastrously unqualified and deranged individual to win the
election. I think those who did will share a major part of
the blame for what this will cause; but that certainly
doesn't absolve the Democratic leadership for their share of
the blame - and since they're supposed to be the "grown ups"
in the room, with charged with managing a process to produce
a result that best advances the interests and views of
Democratic voters, I think they bear the major share of
blame...
"... As far as the folks with uninsured loans that would have lost, well, many of these people were hedge-fund types and other financial institutions. They would have paid a price for not being very competent. The bailout ensured that they would not be left to suffer the consequences of their actions. ..."
"... As far as the top executives of the banks, while some were shown the door, many of these people continue to earn paychecks in the millions or tens of millions as the financial sector remains hugely bloated. We had an opportunity to downsize the financial sector in one fell swoop, eliminating this enormous albatross which sucks money out of the economy and hands it to the very rich. ..."
"... The narrow securities and commodities trading sector is now close to 2.5 percent of GDP ($470 billion a year). In the seventies, it was around 0.5 percent of GDP. Does anyone believe that capital is being allocated more effectively today than forty years ago or that our savings are safer? ..."
Contrary to What Robert Samuelson Says We Did Bail Out the Bankers and Did Not Prevent a Second Great
Depression
Dean Baker
13 February 2017
Robert Samuelson is unhappy that people continue to believe something that is true - that we bailed
out the bankers - and happy that people still believe something that is not true - that we prevented
a second Great Depression. In his column Samuelson complains:
"The real Dodd-Frank scandal is that this misinterpretation of events, widely embraced by both
parties, has been allowed to stand. In many bailouts, banks' shareholders suffered huge losses or
were wiped out; similarly, top managers lost their jobs. The point was not to protect them but to
prevent a collapse of the financial system."
Okay, let's imagine the counterfactual. We decide to take the free market seriously and let it
work its magic on Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs and the rest of the high rollers. These
huge banks all go into bankruptcy with the commercial banking parts of the operations taken over
by the FDIC. All insured deposits are fully protected, with the FDIC and Fed having the option to
raise the limits to protect smaller savers.
The shareholders of these banks are out of luck. They have zero. Samuelson is right that share
prices were depressed during the crisis, but that is different than going to zero. Furthermore, operating
with the protection of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's promise of "no more Lehmans," the share
prices soon bounced back.
As far as the folks with uninsured loans that would have lost, well, many of these people
were hedge-fund types and other financial institutions. They would have paid a price for not being
very competent. The bailout ensured that they would not be left to suffer the consequences of their
actions.
As far as the top executives of the banks, while some were shown the door, many of these people
continue to earn paychecks in the millions or tens of millions as the financial sector remains hugely
bloated. We had an opportunity to downsize the financial sector in one fell swoop, eliminating this
enormous albatross which sucks money out of the economy and hands it to the very rich.
The narrow securities and commodities trading sector is now close to 2.5 percent of GDP ($470
billion a year). In the seventies, it was around 0.5 percent of GDP. Does anyone believe that capital
is being allocated more effectively today than forty years ago or that our savings are safer?
The additional money spent operating this sector is a huge waste from an economic standpoint,
which also plays a large role in the upward redistribution of the last four decades.
In terms of preventing a second Great Depression, this is a nice children's story that the elite
like to tell. (And, they get very mad and call people names if they don't agree - we are supposed
to take name-calling by the elites very seriously.) We know how to get out of a depression, we learned
that lesson in the last one. It's called "spending money."
The claim that we would have suffered a decade of double-digit unemployment if we had not bailed
out the banks is premised on a political claim, not an economic one, that we would never have spent
the money needed to boost the economy out of a prolonged slump. This claim is not only that any initial
stimulus would have been shot down, but even after two, three, or five years of double-digit unemployment
the president and congress would not have agreed to a serious stimulus.
This is a pretty strong claim since even tax cuts would serve to provide stimulus, albeit less
than spending. (Anyone ever meet a Republican that didn't like tax cuts?) Remember, the first stimulus
occurred with George W. Bush in the White House and a 4.7 percent unemployment rate. Those making
the claim that in the counterfactual the politicians in Washington never would have done anything
to boost the economy has a really low opinion of these folks intelligence and/or honesty. That would
be a good topic for a column, if someone really believed it.
by Yoram Bauman [1]
University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
The cornerstone of Harvard professor N. Gregory Mankiw's introductory economics textbook, Principles
of Economics, is a synthesis of economic thought into Ten Principles of Economics (listed in the
first table below). A quick perusal of these will likely affirm the reader's suspicions that
synthesizing economic thought into Ten Principles is no easy task, and may even lead the reader to
suspect that the subtlety and concision required are not to be found in the pen of N. Gregory Mankiw.
I have taken it upon myself to remedy this unfortunate situation. The second table below summarizes
my attempt to translate Mankiw's Ten Principles into plain English, and in doing so to provide the
uninitiated with an invaluable glimpse of the economic mind at work. Explanations and details can be
found in the pages that follow, but the average reader is advised to simply cut out the table below
and carry it around for assistance in the (hereafter unlikely) event of confusion about the basic
Principles of Economics.
#1. People face tradeoffs.
#2. The cost of something is what you give up to get it.
#3. Rational people think at the margin.
#4. People respond to incentives.
#5. Trade can make everyone better off.
#6. Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity.
#7. Governments can sometimes improve market outcomes.
#8. A country's standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services.
#9. Prices rise when the government prints too much money.
#10. Society faces a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment.
#1. Choices are bad.
#2. Choices are really bad.
#3. People are stupid.
#4. People aren't that stupid.
#5. Trade can make everyone worse off.
#6. Governments are stupid.
#7. Governments aren't that stupid.
#8. Blah blah blah.
#9. Blah blah blah.
#10. Blah blah blah.
At first glance, the reader cannot but be impressed by the translation's simplicity and clarity.
Accessibility, however, should not be mistaken for shallowness: further study will reveal hidden
depths and subtleties that will richly reward the attentive student. Indeed, a moment's reflection
will identify any number of puzzles and mysteries. Chief among them is probably this: Why do
Principles #8, #9, and #10 have identical translations?
The immediately obvious explanation is that these are macro-economic principles, and that I, as a
micro-economist, am ill equipped to understand them, let alone translate them.[2] As is often the
case in this complex world we live in, this immediately obvious explanation is also wrong. The true
reason I have provided identical translations of "Blah blah blah" for Principles #8, #9, and #10 is
that these principles say exactly the same thing, namely, "Blah blah blah." Sometime when you've got
a few hours to spare, go and ask an economist -- preferably a macro-economist -- what he or she
really means by "standard of living" or "goods and services" or "inflation" or "unemployment" or
"short-run" or even "too much." You will soon realize that there is a vast difference between, say,
what Principle #10 says -- "Society faces a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment"
-- and what Principle #10 means: "Society faces blah between blah and blah." My translations are
simply concise renderings of these underlying meanings.
Having cleared up that issue, let us go back to Mankiw's
PRINCIPLE #1
People face tradeoffs.
TRANSLATION: Choices are bad.
The reasoning behind this translation is obvious. For example, imagine that somebody comes up to you
and offers you a choice between a Snickers bar and some M&Ms. You now have a tradeoff, meaning that
you have to choose one or the other. And having to trade one thing off against another is bad;
President Truman supposedly asked for a one-armed economics advisor because his two-armed economics
advisors were always saying, "On the one hand...but on the other hand..."
People who have not received any economics education might be tempted to think that choices are
good. They aren't. The (mistaken) idea that choices are good perhaps stems from the (equally
mistaken) idea that lack of choices is bad. This is simply not true, as Mancur Olson points out in
his book, The Logic of Collective Action: "To say a situation is 'lost' or hopeless is in one sense
equivalent to saying it is perfect, for in both cases efforts at improvement can bring no positive
results."
Hence my translation of Mankiw's first principle of economics: Choices are bad. This concept can be
a little difficult to grasp -- nobody ever said economics was easy -- but the troubled reader will
undoubtedly gain clarity from Mankiw's
PRINCIPLE #2
The cost of something is what you give up to get it.
TRANSLATION: Choices are really bad.
Beyond transforming Mankiw's semantic deathtrap into simplicity itself, this translation has the
advantage of establishing a connection between Principle #1 (Choices are bad) and Principle #2
(Choices are really bad).
To continue to deepen the reader's understanding of why choices are bad -- really bad -- let's
return to our previous example, in which somebody offers you a choice between a Snickers bar and a
package of M&Ms. Suppose, for the sake of argument, that you take the M&Ms. According to Mankiw, the
cost of those M&Ms is the Snickers bar that you had to give up to get the M&Ms. Your gain from this
situation -- what economists call "economic profit" -- is therefore the difference between the value
you gain from getting the M&Ms (say, $.75) and the value you lose from giving up the Snickers bar
(say, $.40). In other words, your economic profit is only $.35. Although you value the M&Ms at $.75,
having the choice of the Snickers bar reduces your gain by $.40. Hence Principle #2: Choices are
really bad.
Indeed, the more choices you have, the worse off you are. The worst situation of all would be
somebody coming up to you and offering you a choice between two identical packages of M&Ms. Since
choosing one package (which you value at $.75) means giving up the other package (which you also
value at $.75), your economic profit is exactly zero! So being offered a choice between two
identical packages of M&Ms is in fact equivalent to being offered nothing.
Now, a lay person might be forgiven for thinking that being offered a choice between two identical
packages of M&Ms is in fact equivalent to being offered a single package of M&Ms. But economists
know better. Being offered a single package of M&M effectively means having to choose between a
package of M&Ms (which you value at $.75) and nothing (which you value at $0). Choosing the M&Ms
gives you an economic profit of $.75, which is $.75 more than your economic profit when you are
offered a choice between two identical packages of M&Ms.
At this point it is worth acknowledging that (1) there may be readers who have failed to grasp the
above subtleties in their entirety, and (2) such readers may well be beginning to wonder whether
they are, in a word, stupid. Any lingering doubts should be eliminated by the Mankiw's
PRINCIPLE #3
Rational people think at the margin.
TRANSLATION: People are stupid.
One point that is immediately obvious to the most casual observer with the meanest intelligence is
that most people do not think at the margin. For example, most people who buy oranges at the grocery
store think like this: "Hmmm, oranges are $.25 each. I think I'll buy half a dozen." They do not
think like this: "Hmmm, oranges are $.25 each. I'm going to buy one, because my marginal value
exceeds the market price. Now I'm going to buy a second one, because my marginal value still exceeds
the market price..." We know most people don't think like this because most people don't fill their
shopping baskets one orange at a time!
But we are now led inexorably toward a most unhappy conclusion. If -- as Mankiw says -- rational
people think at the margin, and if -- as we all know -- most people do not think at the margin, then
most people are not rational. Most people, in other words, are stupid. Hence my translation of the
third principle of economics: People are stupid.
Before sinking into despair for the fate of the human race, however, the reader would be wise to
consider Mankiw's
PRINCIPLE #4
People respond to incentives.
TRANSLATION: People aren't that stupid.
The dictionary says that incentive, n., is 1. Something that influences to action; stimulus;
encouragement. SYN. see motive.
So what Mankiw is saying here is that people are motivated by motives, or that people are influenced
to action by things that influence to action. Now, this may seem to be a bit like saying that
tautologies are tautological -- the reader may be thinking that people would have to be pretty
stupid to be unmotivated by motives, or to be inactive in response to something that influences to
action. But remember Principle #3: People are stupid. Hence the need for Principle #4, to clarify
that people aren't that stupid.
Only truly stupid people can fail to understand my translation of Mankiw's
PRINCIPLE #5
Trade can make everyone better off.
TRANSLATION: Trade can make everyone worse off.
But, the reader may well be asking, isn't the translation of the fifth principle the exact opposite
of the principle itself? Of course not.
To see why, first note that "trade can make everyone better off" is patently obviously: if I have a
Snickers bar and want M&Ms and you have M&Ms and want a Snickers bar, we can trade and we will both
be better off. Surely Mankiw is getting at something deeper than this? Indeed, I believe he is. To
see what it is, compare the following phrases:
A: Trade can make everyone better off.
B: Trade will make everyone better off.
Now, Statement B is clearly superior to Statement A. Why, then, does Mankiw use Statement A? It can
only be because Statement B is false. By saying that trade can make everyone better off, Mankiw is
conveying one of the subtleties of economics: trade can also not make everyone better off. It is a
short hop from here to my translation, "Trade can make everybody worse off." (A numerical example
can be found in Note #3, below.)
The subtlety evident in Principle #5 is even more clearly visible in the next two principles.
PRINCIPLE #6
Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity.
TRANSLATION: Governments are stupid.
and
PRINCIPLE #7
Governments can sometimes improve market outcomes.
TRANSLATION: Governments aren't that stupid.
To see the key role that Principle #5 plays in both of these statements, note that the original
phrasing of Principle #5 ("Trade can make everyone better off") leads to Principle #6 ("Governments
are stupid"). After all, if trade can make everyone better off, what do we need government for? But
the translation of Principle #5 ("Trade can make everyone worse off") leads to Principle #7
("Governments aren't that stupid"). After all, if trade can make everyone worse off, we better have
a government around to stop people from trading!
Like the first five principles, Principles #6 and #7 demonstrate the fine distinctions inherent in
the economic way of thinking. People are stupid, but not that stupid; trade can make everyone better
off, but it can also make everyone worse off; governments are stupid, but not that stupid.
Exploring, refining, and delineating these distinctions is the subject matter of upper-level
economics classes, doctoral dissertations in economics, and the vast majority of papers in the
American Economic Review and other scholarly journals. Should the reader decide to follow this path,
the fundamental principles described on the first page of this article will provide invaluable
guidance.
Acknowledgement
Thank you to Ivars Skuja for assistance in taking and preparing the photographs[4] that accompany
this article.
Notes
1. My own microeconomics text, Quantum Microeconomics, can be found online at <http://www.smallparty.org/quantum>.
2. The exact meanings of the terms "micro" and "macro" may be lost on the reader -- or, more likely,
may never have been found in the first place. This should not be cause for concern: absence of these
terms from Mankiw's Ten Principles indicates that they are not of fundamental economic importance.
3. Many non-economists (and some economists) are intimidated by numerical examples. To make it
easier for those people to recognize that the following is a numerical example, it is formatted in
very small type.
Consider a small town with three families. It just so happens that Family #1 needs a snowblower,
Family #2 needs a leafblower, and Family #3 needs a lawnmower; each family values their particular
need at $200. Fortune appears to be smiling on this town, because it also just so happens that
Family #1 owns a leafblower, Family #2 owns a lawnmower, and Family #3 owns a snowblower. These sit
unused in their respective garages; each family has no use for its current piece of equipment, and
therefore values it at $0.
The situation appears ripe for gains from trade: Family #1 could buy a snowblower from Family #3 for
$100, Family #2 could buy a leafblower from Family #1 for $100, and Family #3 could buy a lawnmower
from Family #2 for $100. Each family would be $200 better off.
Unfortunately, life in this small town is not so simple; the town is located in a valley that is
susceptible to severe air pollution problems. Blowers and mowers emit large quantities of air
pollutants, and in fact each blower or mower that is used will make air pollution so bad that
hospital bills (for asthma, etc.) will increase by $80 for each family. Three additional blowers and
mowers will therefore increase each family's bills by $240.
Two results follow. First, the trades will still take place. For example, Family #1 and Family #3
will both be better off by $100 - $80 = $20 if Family #3 sells Family #1 its snowblower for $100.
Second, the three trades together make everyone worse off: each family gains $200 from buying and
selling, but loses $240 in hospital bills, for a net loss of $40.
4. To accommodate schools that teach micro and macro separately, Mankiw's Principles of Economics is
also published in separate pieces; the accompanying photographs are of the micro piece, Principles
of Microeconomics. Note that the same Ten Principles of Economics (some micro, some macro) appear in
all versions of the book.
"... Yes economists are diverse as a group, but the opinions of the majority of that group might be described as having moved to the right since 1970. ..."
Economists are enormously diverse as a group. Any piece that
explicitly or implicitly describes them as being homogeneous
is being reductionist at best.
But Noah makes good points.
Though it's probably worth emphasizing that if there exists a
problem of communication between professionals and the
public, there is probably mutual blame to be assigned.
Economists should talk better to the general public, but as
citizens we don't serve ourselves well when we expect the
world to cater to our lack of knowledge and interest in
complex but important issues.
I have to disagree. It is the professionals who need to do a
better job of educating the public. It is ridiculous to
assume that the general public has the time or resources to
discover this for themselves.
Yes economists are diverse as a group, but the opinions
of the majority of that group might be described as having
moved to the right since 1970.
And often certain types
of economists are described as fringe and there is a
reluctance to discuss their ideas. That is somewhat
understandable because any one economist has only so much
time, but it seems to go deeper than that very often. Trade
has been one of those areas, and I am happy to see many
economists doing some re-evaluation of the free trade mantra,
among other things. I would include Paul Krugman in that
group.
As far as being a knowledge lacking citizen- well we
all are. Ain't no economist got it all completely figured out
as far as I know. That's how I read Noah Smith's article, as
a call to re-examine some previously sacred ideas with maybe
a goal of keeping in mind their effects on different segments
of society. And economists or anyone else who wants to impact
public policy in a democracy certainly should expect to cater
somewhat to those who are less knowledgeable about their
theories.
I have come around to the idea to the idea that the people
and the left have been ill-served by economists. Whether on
trade or on other issues, they are used for their supposed
expertise to argue against "populist" solutions. "Populist"
solutions aren't efficient. Most center-left economists
attacked Sanders for being unserious.
People no longer
trust them after being played.
Krugman and others want it just to be about the blue time
versus the red team, Keynesianism versus neoclassical. That's
the acceptable frame of debate.
But as the election of Trump has shown, it's more
complicated than that.
The left needs better economists. It's nice to see Piketty
join the campaign of France's Bernie Sanders, who just beat
their center-left Hillary in the Socialist primary. He knows
things need to change.
If he had joined Bernie Sanders campaign he would have
been attacked by the center-left economists as "unserious"
and "populist."
Economists mostly argue from authority and people no
longer trust their authority. Smith is suggesting they can
fall back on empirics and science to boost their legitimacy
only if their science backs the truth. Unfortunately
economics is too political.
Really? Offhand, I can
think of Dr Krugman and Joe Stiglitz having won Nobel prizes.
How many right wing economists have won a nobel in, say the
last 25 years?
Peter K is absolutely correct here in his criticism. Krugman
made the transition in the 90s with the Clinton/Rubin
economic regime. Their day is over. Obama embraced the same
and we are all paying the price. By shooting down Bernie,
they killed their chances in the election. We need a change.
and yes, I agree with Noah. Economists should hold their head
in shame. Not for not predicting the crisis. But for doing
little afterwards than boosting asset prices.
Repeat after me - High stock prices do NOT cure cancer.
pgl's usual denial: "Care to provide a link to where Krugman
declared no one would be hurt by a movement to free trade?"
pgl intentionally ignores the link I posed many times wherein
Krugman stated that labor would benefit from China's
accession to WTO...3 million jobs lost later, Krugman finally
started to rethink his full throated embrace of 'free' trade,
but not pgl!
All too often, economists posing as leftists, like PK,
champion investor friendly policies, claiming that they will
help labor. And then, when people finally start to catch onto
the bait and switch, they wonder why people don't trust
economists!
Tom has no idea how much of the loss of blue collar labor
demand in recent decades was due to trade policy vs
non-policy related trade trends vs technology shifts.
Further, he has no interest in even beginning to attempt to
assess the issue.
So I don't think he has any room to talk about who was
"wrong" about the impact of trade on workers.
To the extent that he actually was wrong (he did minimize
distributional effects in much of his earlier work), he has
admitted it and changed his ways.
"...How many right wing economists have won a nobel in, say
the last 25 years?"
[Economists don't designate
conservative or liberal when they hand up their shingle, so
one must use supply side, Austrian School, and neoclassical
orientations as a proxy for conservative ideology. New
Keynesian is a little on the fence, say centrist.]
Ronald Coase - 1991
Gary Becker - 1992
Robert Fogel (jointly with Douglass North, but North can
only be definitively classified as eclectic with a whiff of
neoclassical general equilibrium) -1993
John Harsanyi, John Nash, and Reinhard Selten won jointly
in 1994. They were the game theory guys, which along with
their theory of non-cooperative games made considerable
contributions to utilitarian ethics, which do no always lead
to happy endings for broadly shared social welfare. They were
NOT conservatives themselves by any stretch of the
imagination, but they were not notably liberals either. Crazy
people in search of impossible perfection but willing to cut
off a few limbs to get there is my impression.
Robert Lucas - 1995 ('nuff said)
Praise the lord, holy Jesus in 1996 William Vickrey and
James Mirrlees who ARE actual liberals were award the Nobel
"for their fundamental contributions to the economic theory
of incentives under asymmetric information," a topic of great
interest to conservatives.
Robert Merton (a social scientist) and Myron Sholes (a
financial economist) won in 1997 "for a new method to
determine the value of derivatives."
I almost had a heart attack when I got to this one.
Amartya Sen won in 1998 "for his contributions to welfare
economics." Of course he is from India.
Robert Mundell won in 1999 "for his analysis of monetary
and fiscal policy under different exchange rate regimes and
his analysis of optimum currency areas." Yep, this is the
supply sider that gave the world the EU crisis.
James Heckman "for his development of theory and methods
for analyzing selective samples" and Daniel McFadden "for his
development of theory and methods for analyzing discrete
choice" won jointly in 2000, another case of two liberals
getting awarded for research that was of interest to
conservatives while being almost entirely unrelated to their
own major contributions.
Similarly in 2001, George Akerlof, Michael Spence, and
Joseph Stiglitz won jointly "for their analyses of markets
with asymmetric information." This one actually had liberal
application, but my guess is they got it because
conservatives were scratching their heads about where they
went wrong with the dot-com bubble.
OK, I got other stuff to do now, but you can take the link
and figure it out for yourself. Clearly winning a Nobel still
does not make an economists a champion of the liberal
political cause. Still to go is Ed Prescott in 2004 if you
get my drift.
There is actually a book that discusses this in far greater
detail that I only discovered well into my own analysis with
Google and Wikipedia, but where I looked the experts that
wrote the book had the same judgements and misgivings as I
did.
I agree with Peter K.
...........
The "Nobel prize" was established as 'The Swedish National
Bank's Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel".
Some critics argue that the prestige of the Prize in
Economics derives in part from its association with the Nobel
Prizes, an association that has often been a source of
controversy.
Among them is the Swedish human rights lawyer Peter Nobel,
a great-grandson of Ludvig Nobel.[27] Nobel criticizes the
awarding institution of misusing his family's name, and
states that no member of the Nobel family has ever had the
intention of establishing a prize in economics.[28]
According to Samuel Brittan of the Financial Times, both
of the former Swedish ministers of finance, Kjell-Olof Feldt
and Gunnar Myrdal, wanted the prize abolished, saying,
"Myrdal rather less graciously wanted the prize abolished
because it had been given to such reactionaries as Hayek (and
afterwards Milton Friedman)."[25]
Avner Offer's and Gabriel Söderberg's The Nobel factor:
the prize in economics, social democracy, and the market turn
(Princeton University Press 2016) argues that there has been
a dramatic shift in the dominant macroeconomic theories among
the academia, and that the creation of the Nobel in 1969 was
the cause of this, as it enhanced the prestige of free market
ideology and conferred upon it the status of science.
Despite being widely attributed as a Chinese curse, there is no equivalent expression in Chinese.
The nearest related Chinese expression is "寧為太平犬,莫做亂離人" (ńng wéi tàipíng quǎn, ṃ zụ luàn lí
rén), which is usually translated as "Better to be a dog in a peaceful time, than to be a human
in a chaotic (warring) period."
"May you live in interesting times" is an English expression purporting to be a translation of
a traditional Chinese curse. Despite being so common in English as to be known as "the Chinese
curse", the saying is apocryphal and no actual Chinese source has ever been produced. ...
Evidence that the phrase was in use as early as 1936 is provided in a memoir written by Hughe
Knatchbull-Hugessen, the British Ambassador to China in 1936 and 1937, and published in 1949.
He mentions that before he left England for China in 1936 a friend told him of a Chinese curse,
"May you live in interesting times". ...
When Trump gets the peace prize and talks about starting wars to stop unjust peace and nation
build with no success.....
Flynn's sin was inferring to the Russian ambassador that senselessly pushing Russia into a
corner for Vicky Nuland might end.
Why the Russians are doing the new GLCMs is perfectly reasonable from their perspective. It is called looking out for your country, which US is doing with blood all over but US is
the exceptional shining city on the hill.
And if Trump is a war criminal W. and Obama better look out for the Haig coming after them.
"... The perverse unusefullness of monetary policy and the frustrations and danger from relying on it. This is perhaps the clearest lesson of the recent past. The management of money is no longer a policy but an occupation. Though it rewards those so occupied, its record of achievement in this century has been patently disastrous. ..."
"... It worsened both the boom and the depression after World War 1. It facilitated the great bull market of the 1920s. It failed as an instrument for expanding the economy during the Great depression. When it was relegated to a minor role during World War 11 and the good years thereafter, economic performance was, by common consent, much better. Its revival as a major instrument of economic management in the late '60s and early '70s served to combine massive inflation with serious recession. ..."
"... And it operated with discriminatory and punishing effect against, not surprisingly, those industries that depend on borrowed money, of which housing is the leading case. To argue that it was a success may well be beyond even the considerable skills of its defenders. Only the enemies of capitalism will hope that, in the future, this small, perverse and unpredictable lever will be a major instrument in economic management. ..."
"If the near future is an extension of the near and more distant past,
there are six imperatives that will shape or control monetary policy and the larger
economic policy of which it is now a lesser part. these are:
(1)
The perverse unusefullness of monetary policy and the frustrations and danger
from relying on it. This is perhaps the clearest lesson of the recent past. The
management of money is no longer a policy but an occupation. Though it rewards those so
occupied, its record of achievement in this century has been patently disastrous.
It
worsened both the boom and the depression after World War 1. It facilitated the great bull
market of the 1920s. It failed as an instrument for expanding the economy during the Great
depression. When it was relegated to a minor role during World War 11 and the good years
thereafter, economic performance was, by common consent, much better. Its revival as a
major instrument of economic management in the late '60s and early '70s served to combine
massive inflation with serious recession.
And it operated with discriminatory and punishing
effect against, not surprisingly, those industries that depend on borrowed money, of which
housing is the leading case. To argue that it was a success may well be beyond even the
considerable skills of its defenders. Only the enemies of capitalism will hope that, in the
future, this small, perverse and unpredictable lever will be a major instrument in economic
management.
The central bank remains important for useful tasks - the clearing of checks, the
replacement of worn and dirty banknotes, as a loan source of last resort. These tasks it
performs well. With other public agencies in the United States, it also supervises the
subordinate commercial banks. This is a job which it can do well and needs to do better. In
recent years the regulatory agencies, including the Federal reserve, have relaxed somewhat
their vigilence. At the same time numerous of the banks have been involved in another of
the age-old spasms of optimism and feckless expansion. The result could be a new round of
failures. It is to such matters that the Federal Reserve needs to give its attention.
These tasks apart, the reputation of central bankers will be the greater, the less
responsibility they assume. Perhaps they can lean against the wind - resist a little and
increase rates when the demand for loans is persistently great, reverse themselves when the
reverse situation holds.
But, in the main, control must be - as it was in the United States during the war years
and the good years following - over the forces which cause firms and persons to seek loans
and not over whether they are given or not given the loans.
-From "Money: Whence it came, Where it went" 1975 - pgs 305,6.
"... Independence from those possessing collaterable assets or independence from the electorate? ..."
"... Just trying to state my views. I think the Fed is undemocratic and I like to say so now and again. ..."
"... My alternative would be to quit pretending that the Fed could manage the economy. I think fiscal policy is much more determinant. I would like to see a general understanding by the public that the president is responsible for economic results and should be held accountable. ..."
The Fed is part of a system
run by private banks. That means policy is dictated by those possessing collaterable
assets. Who wins and who loses that game?
Trump has no clue. He will recommend either a complete idiot or somebody from his friends at Sachs.
All they seem to talk about is raising rates. Once the economy starts to sputter, it will transform
into lowering the rates.
The real issue is what Thoma mention: Independence. The Fed has no meaning and no purpose without
it.
"8 years of 1.7 percent
growth? No wonder Trump won."
IMO, that's due more to (the lack of) Fiscal policy than
monetary policy. If the (do nothing) republican congress was interested in things like
rebuilding infrastructure while the black guy was president, we could have had a higher GDP
rate.
But rather than do what was in the best interest of the country, they'd rather see
mediocre growth than give Obama a victory.
Undemocratic? Well, probably,
but there are lots of things in our government which are undemocratic. The FTC, for
example, exists of people appointed by the president. Is that democratic?
To me, it's analogous to the Winston Churchill quote, "Democracy is the worst form of
government, except for all the others."
Yes, there are others and
separation of powers makes it difficult to assess blame.
My alternative would be to quit pretending that the Fed could manage the economy. I
think fiscal policy is much more determinant. I would like to see a general understanding
by the public that the president is responsible for economic results and should be held
accountable.
Of course, powerful forces don't want "gummit meddling' in "their business" and support
a lot of propaganda to prevent that. They like the idea of an 'independent" Fed that stays
away from industrial policy. And they can spend a lot of cash to promote their message in
media and with politicians and "experts".
I would like to see John Kenneth Galbraith raised from the dead and pontificating again,
or his substitute (see John Kenneth Galbraith on Monetary Policy above)
Yes, the writing style is a bit dated, but it gives the bottom-line in really clear, well-written
English.
It's a GREAT little book, should be required reading with proof by some book report written
by each economist, before their being allowed any public discussion about the FEDERAL RESERVE.
It's probably more relevant today for all U.S. citizens than it was back in the early 1900's.
The Great Moderation era Fed has some good aspects but has fundamentally failed to understand
how its obsession with keeping inflation from ever even thinking abut going up has suppressed
wages and caused labor hysteresis.
I think they assume that all those problems just equilibriate away across the cycle but the
reality is not that.
So definitely it could and should be better.
But .. that doesn't make every proposal to change it a good one, or even a coherent one. Nor
does it justify the attitude that we should just blow everything up and hope something better
happens. Those bad arguments are what got us Trump, and at no point should reasonable people pander
to such bad arguments, or confuse the fact that bad arguments are widely held with the notion
that they aren't bad.
Which was done under "Maestro" Greenspan. This Ann Rand follower and staunch believer in unrestrained
"free market" (which means the law of jungles) subverted the institution and pressured the Presidents
who deviated from the "Party line" (and one time Bill Clinton tried). This is the extent he was
a Maestro. Later, after 2008, Maestro turned into cornered rat, but this is quite another story.
Under Maestro Greenspan Fed as an institution became not so dissimilar to such post
WWII financial institutions as IMF and World Bank (which became the key instruments for implementing
"Washington consensus"). It became a very effective enforcer of the neoliberalization of the country.
Approximately nine percent of U.S. GDP is finance of that probably three to five percent is useful
for allocating capital and the rest is preying on asymmetric information
Notable quotes:
"... asymmetric information, and the recent illuminating example of Wells Fargo's excellence in pushing products that customers did not want nor need. ..."
"... Approximately 9 percent of U.S. GDP is finance. Some economists argue that probably 3-5 percent is useful for allocating capital, storing value, smoothing consumptions, and creating competition, and the rest is preying on asymmetric information ..."
"... When vendor expects deflation he dumps inventory, but when he expects inflation he holds on to inventory as he waits for higher profit margins to arrive. He holds onto merchandise by simply raising prices. But why do economists advertise the reverse mechanism? Why does the status quo have a need for distorting truth? ..."
"... Inflation is offered to the proles as a substitute for tax relief to the impoverished. Do you see how it works? ..."
asymmetric information, and the recent illuminating example of Wells Fargo's excellence in
pushing products that customers did not want nor need.
BY: Some financial "innovation" is faddish. It does not create value.
GR: Approximately 9 percent of U.S. GDP is finance. Some economists argue that probably
3-5 percent is useful for allocating capital, storing value, smoothing consumptions, and creating
competition, and the rest is preying on asymmetric information
"
~~Guy Roinik~
Do you see how this asymmetric information plays out?
It is the retail vendor who keeps better information than the retail customer. It is the vendor's
expectations of disinflation vs inflation rather than the customer's expectations that control
the change in M2V. Got it?
When vendor expects deflation he dumps inventory, but when he expects inflation he holds
on to inventory as he waits for higher profit margins to arrive. He holds onto merchandise by
simply raising prices. But why do economists advertise the reverse mechanism? Why does the status
quo have a need for distorting truth?
Inflation is offered to the proles as a substitute for tax relief to the impoverished.
Do you see how it works?
" Tax relief for the wealthy will give you delicious inflation. Now jump for it! " ~~The Yea
Sayers~
Governments today in both Europe and the United States have succeeded in casting government spending
as reckless wastefulness that has made the economy worse. In contrast, they have advanced a policy
of draconian budget cuts--austerity--to solve the financial crisis. We are told that we have all
lived beyond our means and now need to tighten our belts. This view conveniently forgets where all
that debt came from. Not from an orgy of government spending, but as the direct result of bailing
out, recapitalizing, and adding liquidity to the broken banking system. Through these actions private
debt was rechristened as government debt while those responsible for generating it walked away scot
free, placing the blame on the state, and the burden on the taxpayer.
That burden now takes the form of a global turn to austerity, the policy of reducing domestic
wages and prices to restore competitiveness and balance the budget. The problem, according to political
economist Mark Blyth, is that austerity is a very dangerous idea. First of all, it doesn't work.
As the past four years and countless historical examples from the last 100 years show, while it makes
sense for any one state to try and cut its way to growth, it simply cannot work when all states try
it simultaneously: all we do is shrink the economy. In the worst case, austerity policies worsened
the Great Depression and created the conditions for seizures of power by the forces responsible for
the Second World War: the Nazis and the Japanese military establishment. As Blyth amply demonstrates,
the arguments for austerity are tenuous and the evidence thin. Rather than expanding growth and opportunity,
the repeated revival of this dead economic idea has almost always led to low growth along with increases
in wealth and income inequality. Austerity demolishes the conventional wisdom, marshaling
an army of facts to demand that we austerity for what it is, and what it costs us.
An interesting Keynesian view of the current EU austerity programs
" I found this to be a very interesting and thought provoking book. The author makes his viewpoint
very clear with the book's subtitle "The History of a Dangerous Idea". The essence of the author's
argument is that austerity is unfair because it makes workers pay for the mistakes of banks, and
even more importantly, dangerous because it does not lead to prosperity, but only to decreased
economic growth and increased unemployment. This thesis is backed up by an analysis of the banking
crisis of 2008, how it spread from the US to the EU, why the single currency Euro has made the
problem worse for the EU and why using austerity to solve the problems will not work. It also
discusses the history of the idea of austerity, both in terms of the economic theory that promotes
it and the economic history that does not. Conservatives, who find Keynesian economics to be not
only wrong, but also the road to economic ruin, will likely be turned off by the book's subtitle
and many of the arguments that Professor Blyth utilizes. However, there is a lot of data in this
book that they should look at, if only to criticize it. I found this book very enlightening and
while I do not agree with all of Professor Blyth's ideas (particularly those of the last chapter),
I learned a lot, so for me it was 5-stars.
What is in the book?
The book is divided into 7 chapters, which cover the following:
Chapter 1 - A Primer on Austerity. This is a short chapter that summarizes the main thesis of
the book (mentioned above), and sets the stage for the more detailed discussions in subsequent
chapters.
Chapter 2 - America: To Big to Fail? This is an excellent chapter that summarizes the origins
and unfolding of the 2008-banking crisis in the US. This is a very complicated story, which Professor
Blyth tells in a clear manner. The story revolves around repurchase agreements (Repos), mortgage
backed securities (MBS), collateralized debt obligations (CDO), credit default swaps (CDS), and
how all these interacted in a climate of deregulation to produce the crisis. Professor Blyth does
a good job of explaining these terms and how the interaction worked.
Chapter 3 - Europe: Too Big to Bail? This is another very illuminating chapter. It shows how Europe,
which first believed it was not going to be affected by the US banking crisis, became a major
casualty of it and their own internal banking problems. All these factors were compounded by the
single currency Euro, which has removed devaluation as a solution to the crisis, instead fostering
the idea that governmental austerity was the only way to correct a problem produced by the private
banking sector.
Chapter 4 - Intellectual History of a Dangerous Idea 1692-1942. This chapter goes back to the
writings of John Locke, David Hume and Adam Smith to see how the idea of austerity developed.
It also covers the idea in the early 20th century and the development of anti-austerity Keynesian
economic theory. It is a nice primer on classical economic ideas.
Chapter 5 - Intellectual History of a Dangerous Idea 1942-2012. This chapter carries the story
of the idea of austerity into the present time. It shows how the idea of austerity, discredited
by the Great Depression and the success of the Keynesian solution (although conservatives would
argue these successes were illusory and set the stage for future economic problems), has been
resurrected by economists writing in the latter part of the 20th century and early 21st.
Chapter 6. Austerity's Natural History 1914-2012. Blyth presents a lot of data that shows that,
contrary to the theories presented in the previous chapter, austerity has not worked in practice.
Much of the chapter is spent it refuting the writings of several economists that say that the
recent historical data does support the idea. Blyth contends that in general it does not and if
is does in a few cases it either does not when all the data is considered, or worked only marginally
under a very limited set of conditions.
Chapter 7 - The End of Banking, New Tales and a Taxing Time Ahead. This is a very short eleven-page
chapter, but perhaps the most controversial on in the book. Blyth, initially a supporter of bank
bailouts as absolutely necessary to prevent a complete collapse of the banking system and with
it the whole capitalist economic system and with it democratic society as a whole, now questions
whether in might not have been better to let the banks fail. He cites the case of Iceland where
the banks were allowed to fail and society has recovered. This was done by making the bank's creditors
bear the cost of failure, instead of all of Iceland's citizens. He notes that most of this loss
was borne by foreign creditors of a very small country, whose banking system was an immense part
of the country's economy, but was small compared to the economies of the US or the EU. Unfortunately,
he fails to say how a banking collapse in the US or EU could be handled when the systems are huge
compared to Iceland's and where the creditors are largely internal. He does not explain how the
failure of these huge banking systems, with their internal creditors, would not result in the
scenario he originally envisioned. I found this analysis to be poor and not in keeping with the
thoroughness of the rest of the book. Blyth also floats the idea of huge tax increases, either
through a one-time tax on assets or a very large increase in higher bracket tax rates. Conservatives,
and many not quite so conservative, will likely blanch at these ideas. There is no discussion
of the political difficulties of doing this or very much development of the idea, which is contained
in only the last four pages of the book.
David
Lindsay on September 25, 2016 Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
Brilliant Overview
" Mark Blyth is a professor at Brown University and he explains why austerity doesn't work.
He points out that whenever austerity has been tried in the past it has usually proven to be disastrous.
What its supporters often seem to forget is that one person's spending is another's income and
demand in the economy would collapse if everyone stopped spending. The book is a sobering read
because Blyth is not optimistic about the future. However, the book is well written and is often
funny.
Blyth shows that the case for austerity does not add up. The US did not pursue austerity during
the recession and its economy has been growing. US GDP is 10% higher than it was in 2007. The
EU has pursued austerity with vigor, but GDP in the euro zone is still lower than it was in 2007.
Blyth shows that countries that cut the most have had lower rates of growth. Blyth claims that
all the countries that cut public spending in response to the financial crises had significantly
more debt in 2012 than when they started. For example, Ireland's debt to GDP ratio more than quadrupled,
from 24.8% in 2007 to 106.4% in 2012. The other problem is that austerity increased unemployment.
Throughout southern Europe, unemployment has been at levels not seen since the Great Depression.
It is still over 20% in Spain and Greece. As a result of cutting public expenditure Greece's GDP
dropped by 30% in four years. There is no evidence that austerity improves growth.
Blyth spends a lot of time trashing the pro-austerity thinking that took place in Europe. Germany
is driving economic policy for the euro zone and they have never believed in Keynesian economics.
Keynes advised that austerity was a bad idea during a recession. German politicians seem to believe
that all nations could have trade surpluses if only they tried hard enough, despite the fact that
it is impossible for all countries to have a surplus. Only one European country can be Germany.
The Germans have often advocated the sort of solutions that failed in the 1930s. They argue that
budget deficits and government debt have to be kept under strict control. The Maastricht Treaty,
which established the EU, required that national debt should not exceed 60% of GDP and the deficit
should not exceed 3.0%. Entry to the euro also requires a budget deficit of 3.0%.
Blyth points out that when you have a deficit, you can either raise taxes or cut spending to fill
the gap. The British government of David Cameron favored the latter in 2010. The British deficit
had reached 10% in 2010. However, UK government debt went up, not down, despite the cuts, from
52.3% of GDP in 2009 to 90.7% in 2013. The same pattern was repeated throughout the euro zone.
Cutting public expenditure shrank the underlying economy.
The German argument is that running large deficits increases the risk of high inflation. Blyth
points out that the Germans have selective amnesia about their past. It was the Wall Street Crash
in 1929 not hyper-inflation in 1924 that led to Hitler. Before the crash, 1.25 million people
were unemployed in Germany. Hitler was an accidental Keynesian and by 1937 German unemployment
had fallen from six million to one million. Unfortunately, much of his spending involved preparing
for war. Blyth argues that Germany's continuing insistence on austerity is the biggest threat
to the euro zone.
According to Blyth, the current version of the austerity argument was created by a group of Italian
economists, originating from Bocconi University, in Milan. He explains why their arguments are
deeply flawed. Blyth argues that, apart from Greece, public sector debt in the euro zone countries
was not out of control before the financial crises. Blyth rubbishes the theory of "expansionary
austerity," that cutting spending will lead to higher economic growth. The "austerians" believed
that large spending cuts would be followed by expansion rather than contraction. The reason, they
suggested, was that decisive fiscal austerity created confidence in the private sector. Keynesians
agreed that insufficient private spending was the cause of the problem, but only governments could
stimulate demand on the scale needed. Austerity failed to stimulate demand in Europe. Blyth also
argues that everybody cannot cut their way to growth at the same time. The IMF once went along
with austerity but it has recently concluded that austerity has had major adverse economic effects.
Blyth is worried that inequality could become a serious problem in the US. The 400 richest Americans
own more assets than the poorest 150 million. He argues that both major parties have written off
the bottom 30% of society. He claims that the American working class has not had a pay rise since
1979, and globalization has failed them. He believes this explains the anger behind the Trump
phenomenon. Blyth points out that rich Americans and the country's biggest companies are reluctant
to pay tax, so government borrowing has had to go up. Blyth claims that he pays more tax than
GE.
Blyth is critical of Republicans who advocated austerity. Republicans in the US also favored balancing
the budget and cutting taxes. Keynesians, like Paul Krugman, argued that this is what Herbert
Hoover tried to do in the early 1930s and the result was a 25% unemployment rate. Obama inherited
an 11.4% budget deficit in 2009. The Republicans wanted to cut government expenditure but Blyth
argues the reason the US has recovered faster than Europe is because it cut less. He makes it
clear that it is poorer people who usually rely on government services to make ends meet that
are the hardest hit when public expenditure is cut. He believes that the rich and corporate America
need to start paying more tax. He also argues that the US government should probably have let
its banks go bankrupt – as the Icelandic government did – rather than bail them out.
Blyth reminds us that 2008 was a private sector crisis. The debts of the banks landed on the balance
sheet of the public sector through bank bailouts and quantitative easing. In other words, taxpayers
bailed out the bankers. He calls this the "greatest bait-and-switch in modern history." The EU
is imposing austerity on southern Europe and dismantling the welfare state in Greece in order
to protect German banks that made stupid decisions.
Blyth in recent interviews has argued that the EU may have a sinister agenda and it really wants
to drag wages in Western Europe down to East European levels so that it can better compete with
China. I assumed this must be an exaggeration but it might not be. The Guardian mapped labor costs
across the euro zone from 1999 to 2013. What they found is that German workers have barely seen
wages rise for that 14-year stretch, despite Germany having massive trade surpluses. We could
be in for real trouble.
Fangon September 27, 2016 Format: Paperback Verified Purchase
The Richness of Austerity
" Mark Blyth tries to convey a simple message: austerity simply does not work. Defining austerity
as "voluntary deflation in which the economy adjusts through the reduction of wages, prices and
public spending to restore competitiveness .best achieved by cutting the state's budget, debts
and deficits" (p.2), Blyth argued that austerity's fallacies lies in the impossibility of having
everybody to be thrift at the same time and the cyclical nature of debt (pp.7 and 12).
Blyth also suggests that austerity efforts unevenly hurt the lower strata of societies (p.8),
and conflates debt and financialization problems in private sector (primarily referring to bank
and financial institutions) into state (sovereign) issues (p.6 and p.23). In the first three chapters,
Blyth strives to demonstrate that the financial and economic turmoil since 2008 is largely a crisis
of financialization, lack of regulation, slow growth and imbalance between monetary policy and
final creditor of printing press (in the case of Europe), not that of austerity (save the marginal
case of Greece). Blyth argues that it is a mentality of treating these crises as endogenous and
private actors as "rational" that underlay the bad policy choices in America and Europe (pp.91-93).
In chapters 4 through 6, Blyth provides an intellectual and practical history of austerity.
It is suggested that a spirit of thrift and aversion towards state and state spending runs through
the vein of economic liberalism, ranging from classical liberalism to neoclassical economics and
to the Austrian school. In more contemporary era, it is public choice theory, neoliberalism and
Milton Friedman's monetarism that carries this tradition forward to construct a pro-market and
private-sector-favoring package that turns public spending into a corporate calculation of costs
and benefits. Blyth goes on to illustrate the history of austerity in practice, arguing that it
is usually the Keynesian expansionary policies that couple austerity that reinvigorated economy
amid crises; austerity, carried out on its own, constitutes massive redistribution consequences.
Blyth obviously attempts to engage as wide an audience as possible in the public intellectual
realm. As much as he is successful in his empirical chapters, Blyth appears to fight a deflationary
economic policy with his own inflationary writing strategy. From chapters 4 to 5, he constantly
conflates the moral teaching of thrift and financial prudence from Adam Smith to avoidance of
debt, the Ordoliberalism's quest for order and proper state function to aversion of democratic
politics, the methodological insights of public choice to a general fear of bureaucracy and government,
and so on. These inflations, while sometimes credited, are bound to subject to scrutiny and questions.
Moreover, by glossing over the details of this rich intellectual history, Blyth dodges
some key questions that his empirical chapters also fail to articulate: what is the distinction
between private and public debt, and personal thrift and public austerity, when we talk about
austerity, and how significant is it? How does this distinction play out in more classical economic
philosophy?
And amid crisis, who should be considered the "ultimate creditor" or "final guarantor" of debt
(and money)? There questions certainly exceeds the scope and intention of Blyth's book, but they
should be instrumental in deepening our understanding of austerity.
"... We're hoping for judges' consciences, and loyalty to country over party, and common sense, to save us. ..."
"... "administration that is unconstrained by conscience and logic", we have had that continuously since 1980. ..."
"... You get worked up over a travel ban but not Obama's US bombing wedding parties. Or taking out 14 non combatants and losing n MV 22 to get a few smart phones. ..."
"... Do you have stock in both refugee referral companies and Lockheed? ..."
"... poor pk has grabbed the alt right's the concession over cognitive bias, false analogy and cherry picked faux facts. ..."
"... Does anyone take this guy seriously anymore? This is Chicken Little, Sky-Is-Falling nonsense from a PhD Nobelist? Certainly the guy has lost his marbles, and someone needs to put him in a padded room. At least be kind, and retire him. ..."
"... Electoral college exists until "they" gut/get rid of states rule on amendments in the US constitution. ..."
"... Why republicans should be focused on voter suppression, if Democrats are working relentlessly to move blue collar workers and lower middle class voters to far right ? ..."
"... 'dollar democracy' is deeper than that. ..."
"... Wrong. Progressive neoliberals helped give us Trump. Nobody forced Hillary to give speeches to Goldman Sachs or to give Bush a blank check for war. ..."
"... Blaming the few who didn't vote Hillary. What about the many who stayed home? You're an example of learned helplessness. Like the wife who won't leave her abusive husband. ..."
"... If Trump got 37% of votes of people with postgraduate degree that's tell you something about Democratic Party. That only can means that Democratic Party smells so badly that most people can not stand it, not matter what is the alternative. As in "you should burn in hell". ..."
"... It's kind of reversal of voting for "lesser evil" on which Bill Clinton counted when he betrayed the working class and lower middle class. Worked OK for a while but then it stopped working as he essentially pushed people into embraces of far right. ..."
"... I doubt that Trump is a political cycle outlier. He is a sign of the crisis of neoliberal political system, which pushes authoritarian figures as "Hail Mary Pass", when Hillarius politicans are proved to be un-electable. ..."
"... And despite his "bastard liberalism" he is the symbol of rejection of liberalism, especially outsourcing/offshoring and neoliberal globalization. Or more correctly his voters are. ..."
"... "America as we know it will soon be gone." Don't you think that much of it is already gone? We did not see ourselves as a nation of cowards years ago, but that's what we now appear to be. ..."
"... "We did not see ourselves as a nation of cowards years ago, but that's what we now appear to be." USAnians have been cowards for generations. The transition from corporatist dyarchy to one-party authoritarianism is and was inevitable. ..."
"... It seems we live in a system where two parties fight to a draw and then volatility in the system acts as a coin toss and we get new leadership. The people line up approximately half and half for the two. ..."
"... Where do you see a draw? The republicans control the house, the senate, the executive branch, the majority of state legislatures, the majority of state governorships, and will soon control the supreme court. ..."
"... The Republicans have embraced the idea that this is a battle, and that their 50% need to win and keep their heels on the neck of the other 50%. The Democrats seem more conflicted about this fight, partly because some of them have bought the neoliberal ideology of their opposition. ..."
"... "some of them have bought the neoliberal ideology of their opposition." i like the understatement. ..."
"The real question is how much support he has a year from now when most of his voters realize
that the majority of what he directly or implicitly promised them, turns out to be a lie."
I'm sure that people in Kansas were telling themselves this 7 years ago.
Yep - and they were right. The democrats lost the next midterm election. The midterm blowback
is that of both an energized opposition and of a lot of disappointed followers.
If the libruls think Obama's multinational collateral damage from senseless bombing by drone and
expensive aircraft is not worth protesting, then rallies and faux moral indignation against a
travel ban are incongruous to reason.
But we have an administration that is unconstrained by conscience and logic and a GOP majority
in both houses of Congress that shows scant willingness to stand against the administration on
anything.
The only remaining check between now and 2018 is the fear Congresspersons might have of losing
their seats, and the judiciary.
The former is very weak though, because rapid Trump supporters make up the majority of the
GOP voting base, so GOP congressmen are going to stay in line to avoid primary challenges. Their
party is almost completely captured by the wingnut wing.
Also, few at-risk GOP Senators are even up for re-election in 2018.
The latter is our only real hope, and even that is tenuous. Judges can be fickle and peculiar,
but most GOP judges were selected for their partisan loyalty. Most will go along with almost anything
the GOP wants, and as time passes, Trump is going to add more judges, and he will be damn sure
to pick ones that go along with anything he wants.
We're hoping for judges' consciences, and loyalty to country over party, and common sense,
to save us. But when the GOP picks judges they select against those traits.
"administration that is unconstrained by conscience and logic", we have had that continuously
since 1980.
You get worked up over a travel ban but not Obama's US bombing wedding parties. Or taking
out 14 non combatants and losing n MV 22 to get a few smart phones.
Do you have stock in both refugee referral companies and Lockheed?
Does anyone take this guy seriously anymore? This is Chicken Little, Sky-Is-Falling nonsense
from a PhD Nobelist? Certainly the guy has lost his marbles, and someone needs to put him in a
padded room. At least be kind, and retire him.
You certainly cannot expect Krugman to criticize the constitutional political system of dollar
democracy that gave us a choice between Trump and Hillary through first past the post elections
and party caucuses any more than you can expect him to criticize lifetime congressional seats
and a SCOTUS unanswerable to the people.
I believe even Krugman will criticize gerrymandering, which is a safe target since it is implemented
at the state rather than federal level.
The electoral college although problematic is not the best place to start. Campaign finance, gerrymandering,
legislative term limits, and an alternative to first past the post voting are all state to state
neutral, allowing a large and powerful electoral consensus to form without undue obstacles except
for elite authority itself.
These are all assessable solidarity issues. The fear of reversal for Roe V. Wade makes petition
and referendum to overturn SCOTUS decisions more difficult first time around, but not impossible
since Citizens United. Liberals on the fence only need consider the polling numbers comparing
those two SCOTUS decisions to see that petition and referendum to overturn SCOTUS would not threaten
Roe V. Wade, but rather end the threat to Roe V. Wade. OTOH, the electoral college is a state
by state issue and small states are not going to give it up. New York and California will need
to subdivide into a bunch of small states to ever change that.
The constitutional ratification procedure can be hijacked by a solidarity electoral movement
only so long as the solidarity is large and cohesive.
And, IMO, you are not seeing the forest for the trees. The republican party is laser focused on
voter suppression. And they will not waste a crisis or supreme court judge slot.
"A review of these documents shows that North Carolina GOP leaders launched a meticulous and
coordinated effort to deter black voters, who overwhelmingly vote for Democrats."
When the Supreme court becomes un-deadlocked Jim Crow will destroy opposition to Trump_vs_deep_state.
You are certainly correct in their intent and if the South less Virginia, which was purple enough
to go for Hillary in 2016, were the entire country then you would be correct in the impending
reality.
The reality is uncertain though because many of the Trump voters were racists and misogynists,
but then many of the Trump voters were just reacting to an opportunity to strike back at the corporatist
hegemony in control of the political establishment. The corporatist controlled dollar democracy
has dominated the conversation about the advantages of trade regardless of trade deficits for
over thirty years now. A rebellion is long overdue. The US Constitution provides sufficient political
tools to the electorate to stage a revolution using electoral means, but not by just choosing
between establishment political parties without providing an electoral agenda of its own along
with solidarity in imposing bipartisan anti-incumbency sanctions for failure to perform.
Great. While Trump tries to tear down democracy, the supposed representatives of "the people"
will keep talking about shit like how much they hate NAFTA.
"And, IMO, you are not seeing the forest for the trees. The republican party is laser focused
on voter suppression."
With all due respect, I do not believe that.
Why republicans should be focused on voter suppression, if Democrats are working relentlessly
to move blue collar workers and lower middle class voters to far right ?
Paul Krugman didn't give us Trump, the progressives who can't stand dems, demonized Hillary, either
didn't vote or voted for Trump gave us Trump. Idee fixe and big picture are not the same.
Blaming the few who didn't vote Hillary. What about the many who stayed home? You're an
example of learned helplessness. Like the wife who won't leave her abusive husband.
"Wrong. Progressive neoliberals helped give us Trump. Nobody forced Hillary to give speeches
to Goldman Sachs or to give Bush a blank check for war."
How many Goldman Sachs banksters does Trump have in his administration? I lost count.
The best predictor of a Trump vote was a tendency towards sexism and racism. And Trump voters
were generally well-off middle class whites, not the underclass who either stayed home or predominantly
voted for Clinton.
"The best predictor of a Trump vote was a tendency towards sexism and racism. And Trump
voters were generally well-off middle class whites, not the underclass who either stayed home
or predominantly voted for Clinton."
Trump won the uneducated vote. Many of those people ain't middle class.
"How many Goldman Sachs banksters does Trump have in his administration? I lost count."
Yeah they own both parties. Democrats need to be for the people, not corporations. You are
pretty naive for being leftwing. Probably you just get off on being argumentative.
"Trump won the uneducated vote. Many of those people ain't middle class." I see you are
pimping Trump's faux-populist mythology again. Clinton won the majority of votes of those earning
less the $50,000 and Trump won the majority of votes for those who earn more than $50,000.
has it ever occurred to you that older white voters can be middle/upper class without having a
college degree?
it's ironic that many of these same people oppose unions, social insurance (e.g. pensions),
and free education (GI bill) despite having benefited from these socialist programs.
FYIGM
If Trump got 37% of votes of people with postgraduate degree that's tell you something about
Democratic Party. That only can means that Democratic Party smells so badly that most people can
not stand it, not matter what is the alternative. As in "you should burn in hell".
It's kind of reversal of voting for "lesser evil" on which Bill Clinton counted
when he betrayed the working class and lower middle class. Worked OK for a while but then it stopped
working as he essentially pushed people into embraces of far right.
My wife says Liz Warren will run in 2020 and win. I am hoping that it will be someone off radar
now that gets elected as the youngest POTUS in history. We need a sea change with full millennial
backing.
You're wife's prediction for next president will keep DeVos.
"A taxpayer-funded voucher that paid the entire cost of educating a child (not just a partial
subsidy) would open a range of opportunities to all children. . . . Fully funded vouchers would
relieve parents from the terrible choice of leaving their kids in lousy schools or bankrupting
themselves to escape those schools.
the public-versus-private competition misses the central point. The problem is not vouchers;
the problem is parental choice. Under current voucher schemes, children who do not use the vouchers
are still assigned to public schools based on their zip codes. This means that in the overwhelming
majority of cases, a bureaucrat picks the child's school, not a parent. The only way for parents
to exercise any choice is to buy a different home-which is exactly how the bidding wars started.
Under a public school voucher program, parents, not bureaucrats, would have the power to pick
schools for their children-and to choose which schools would get their children's vouchers."
Remember which side of the debate is pro-choice and which side of the debate is pro teacher's
union.
I am not for either side. My wife's mother was a teacher as was her older sister. I am not sure
what she thinks of the teacher's union.
The pedagogical system is so oriented to a system of establishment indoctrination that the
average private school is just as bad as the average public school and even the worst public schools
are no worse than the worst private schools. Only the best private schools stand out along with
a few of the charter schools as better than their public school counterparts and even then not
by a great margin. The problem is the pedagogical approach itself. It is also a matter of who
taught the teachers? We have developed a system that aspires to mold us all into obedient followers
and it works very well. It is also self-replicating.
"Remember which side of the debate is pro-choice and which side of the debate is pro teacher's
union."
Who needs labor and civil rights when we have capitalist billionaires who will give us "school
choice vouchers", "right to work laws", and "deregulation"!
I doubt that Trump is a political cycle outlier. He is a sign of the crisis of neoliberal
political system, which pushes authoritarian figures as "Hail Mary Pass", when Hillarius politicans
are proved to be un-electable.
And despite his "bastard liberalism" he is the symbol of rejection of liberalism, especially
outsourcing/offshoring and neoliberal globalization. Or more correctly his voters are.
Trump said the Iraq war was a disaster. He bragged about being against the war before it started.
He used the Iraq war against Jeb Bush and Hillary as an example of the corrupt elite's incompetence.
This infuriates thoughtless partisans like Krugman to no end.
The appellate court ruled against Trump's Muslim band even more strongly than the lower court
judge.
"America as we know it will soon be gone." Don't you think that much of it is already gone?
We did not see ourselves as a nation of cowards years ago, but that's what we now appear to be.
"We did not see ourselves as a nation of cowards years ago, but that's what we now appear
to be." USAnians have been cowards for generations. The transition from corporatist dyarchy to
one-party authoritarianism is and was inevitable.
It seems we live in a system where two parties fight to a draw and then volatility in the
system acts as a coin toss and we get new leadership. The people line up approximately half and
half for the two.
I'm having a hard time understanding why if half support the new leadership established by
the operations of the system, that we should worry this a threat to the system itself.
For if that's what we think, it seems we have far bigger problems than simple disagreement
to worry about. It seems those among us who think that way should be planning as revolutionaries
to change this doomed system that except for luck has not yet careened over the edge into whatever.
Where do you see a draw? The republicans control the house, the senate, the executive branch,
the majority of state legislatures, the majority of state governorships, and will soon control
the supreme court.
The Republicans have embraced the idea that this is a battle, and that their 50% need to win
and keep their heels on the neck of the other 50%. The Democrats seem more conflicted about this
fight, partly because some of them have bought the neoliberal ideology of their opposition.
The FBI overheard The over reaction to 9/11, greatly abetted by the media, marked the beginning
of this slide into Stasi-land. The associated paranoia has led to the likes of Trump and this
goofy arsed Congress. We now have governance based not on reality, but on paranoia; on evidence
free facts, on convenient facts, on alternative facts, to each of us our own facts. I've seen
no accounting of the economic and social costs of this paranoia, but am certain they exceed the
damage of 9/11 by orders of many magnitude.
Are these symptoms of America's undeniable demise? How do we turn the ship of state around?
This precedent set by the election of Trump, how does the nation remove the stain? Can we avoid
the continuance into despotism, authoritarianism?
US Budgetary Costs of Wars through 2016: $4.79 Trillion and Counting
Summary of Costs of the US Wars in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan and Homeland Security
By Neta C. Crawford
Summary
Wars cost money before, during and after they occur - as governments prepare for, wage, and
recover from them by replacing equipment, caring for the wounded and repairing the infrastructure
destroyed in the fighting. Although it is rare to have a precise accounting of the costs of war
- especially of long wars - one can get a sense of the rough scale of the costs by surveying the
major categories of spending.
As of August 2016, the US has already appropriated, spent, or taken on obligations to spend
more than $3.6 trillion in current dollars on the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria
and on Homeland Security (2001 through fiscal year 2016). To this total should be added the approximately
$65 billion in dedicated war spending the Department of Defense and State Department have requested
for the next fiscal year, 2017, along with an additional nearly $32 billion requested for the
Department of Homeland Security in 2017, and estimated spending on veterans in future years. When
those are included, the total US budgetary cost of the wars reaches $4.79 trillion....
America has been continually at war since 2001, at war under 2 presidents, at war in a range of
countries that were in no way connected to the attack on America and did not threaten America.
Tensions were building even with Russia and China. We have now the possibility of ending our warring
or working to mutual advantage with China and Russia, which will be to the advantage of many countries.
China and America have just moved to the forming of a new mutually beneficial partnership.
I find reason to be hopeful.
Liberals Can't Wait for Republicans to Adopt the Border-Adjusted Tax
by VERONIQUE DE RUGY February 7, 2017 4:25 PM
I have already expressed some of my objections with the border-adjusted tax included in the otherwise
very good House Republican's Tax Blueprint. But I think it is important to revisit the utter enthusiasm
of liberals at the prospect of a Republican Congress implementing a Destination Based Cash Flow Tax
(DBCFT).
Exhibit number 1: This article in the U.S. edition of The Independent called "Deluded Republicans
are accidentally pushing for progressive corporation tax reform." It reads:
"Indeed, we find ourselves in the paradoxical situation where a reform being presented by deluded
right-wing American politicians as a way of sticking it to cheating foreigners actually represents
the world's best chance for lancing the boil of rampant tax evasion by multinational companies. .
. .
But the great advantage of this reform is that it would eliminate the incentive for multinational
firms to dodge their US corporate taxes through accounting tricks, such as registering profits at
subsidiaries abroad and relocating their corporate headquarters to tax havens.
No matter where they based their headquarters, multinationals would be liable for a hefty US tax
bill if they sold plenty of products and services in America."
This is correct. No matter how high the rate goes (as I we will see below under a Democratic Congress
and White House, it could go high), companies will have nowhere to go and will lose their escape
valves, i.e., they will be stuck with "a hefty US tax bill." That's what tax harmonization does.
Dan Mitchell has a good speech here about how the DBCFT undermines tax competition.
According to the author, the best part of the tax plan is that other governments will copy it
and the bad system will be imposed everywhere. Tax competition gives you a virtuous cycle of countries
adopting better and cheaper tax systems to compete with other countries. Under a destination-based
border-adjustment regime, you instead get tax harmonization and a vicious cycle that spreads a bad
system everywhere. He concludes:
"Back to the paradox. Republicans care little about the iniquities of tax havens. They want firms
to pay more in corporation tax in the same way that Donald Trump wants judges in Washington to influence
immigration policy. And they seem terribly confused about the reform they are championing and about
what it would entail, not least the progressive outcomes.
Yet, for all that, what they have ended up pushing is the right thing, not just for the US but
the world. Treason or not, we should wish them good speed on this one."
Exhibit number 2: At a recent Tax Foundation event on the issue, Bill Gale of the Brookings Institution
made this remarkable endorsement of the destination-based border-adjustment tax. He said (at the
43:40 mark): "It essentially makes the government a shareholder in every corporation in America.
The government shares all the losses, and it shares all the profits."
You can tell from the video that Douglas Holtz-Eakin is obviously uncomfortable with his comments.
He even says something to the effect of "are you trying to kill it?"
But then it gets better. Gale then reiterated his call for a much higher rate than the Republican
plan's 20 percent. And as he said at the 45:33 mark, "If something is non-distortionary, you should
tax the hell out of it." That has the merit of being honest and transparent.
Now, never mind that a very likely less than perfect adjustment of our currency will actually
create plenty of distortions in the form of, among other things, higher prices for consumers. And
never mind that the adjustment of the currency itself will be painful and destroy a whole lot of
wealth. But he is right that if there is no escape valve, then lawmakers are likely to try to tax
the hell out of it.
As I wrote last week:
"When you think about it, it is not surprising that many, not all, liberals like the new tax idea."
Republicans in Congress should think about this carefully.
...................
Classicals vs Neoclassicals: Tax and Rent
Posted on 8 January 2011
At the university I attended, a few of the academics were
strongly influenced by Classical Political Economy,
especially that of Smith and Ricardo. Prior to my student
days, one of them had published a paper in the Cambridge
Journal of Economics entitled "On the origins of the term
'neoclassical'" (no free link available), which is quite well
known in heterodox circles. In it, he argued that the
'classical' in the term 'neoclassical' is a misnomer and that
neoclassical and classical economics actually have little in
common, despite attempts by neoclassicals to claim Smith, in
particular, as their forefather.
The classical-influenced economists at my university
happened to belong to the Sraffian School. This school
attempts to synthesize Classical value and distribution with
Keynesian output and employment determination, and is also
known for its key role and victory in the Cambridge Capital
Controversy. The school is named after Piero Sraffa, whose
interpretation of Classical Political Economy, particularly
Ricardo's work, has been highly influential.
Sraffians are not the only modern-day economists
influenced by Smith and Ricardo. Another prominent example is
Michael Hudson. In a recent interview (h/t to Tom Hickey),
Hudson discusses one big difference between the Classical
economists and the neoclassicals: their analysis of taxation
as applied to economic rent.
Hudson touches on a number of noteworthy points during the
interview. He draws attention to a historical correspondence
that would probably surprise many, between high top tax rates
and strong economic growth, and observes that the top rates
were high in the period prior to WWII. Importantly, the focus
of taxation in Classical Political Economy, which Hudson
argues influenced US government policy in the late 1800s and
much of the first half of the 1900s, was on confiscating
economic rents. These rents include income that derives from
ownership of assets that appreciate in value merely because
of the growth in national income and/or improved public
infrastructure, and not due to any participation in the
production process (they arise especially in the real estate
and financial sectors).
It is not mentioned in the interview, but profit, of
course, is also income that derives from the mere ownership
of assets – the means of production. However, the classical
economists were engaged in a class war with rentiers, not
capitalists. It was Marx who drew this reasoning out to its
logical conclusion, and this probably goes a long way to
explaining why neoclassical theory, rather than being a
continuation of classical economics (as was often claimed
once it was established), was an escape into a different
conceptualization of a capitalist economy that sought to
reframe the distribution of income as the result of marginal
contributions (an attempt that failed and was the chief
target and theoretical casualty of the Cambridge Capital
Controversy). Even so, there does remain a significant
distinction between profit, which relates to assets employed
in the production process, and economic rents. For this
reason, Marx also distinguished between these two categories
of income and spent a great deal of space in volume 3 of
Capital analyzing the various forms of surplus value,
including different types of rent.
Hudson goes on to stress that the taxation imposed in the
late 1800s and first half of the 1900s was highly
progressive. Initially only the top 1 percent of income
earners were required to submit tax returns. The purpose of
this was to keep taxes on wages and profit low to promote
price competitiveness against lower wage countries. This can
be contrasted with neo-liberal policies of today which seem
to be designed almost with the opposite intent: to tax wage
and profit income (and also consumption) but provide
loopholes or tax breaks for the recipients of economic rents.
Above all, Hudson distinguishes between what the classical
economists meant by the term "free market" and what that term
has come to mean in the neo-liberal period. Hudson emphasizes
that, for the classical economists, "free market" meant a
market unencumbered by rent-based claims on income that would
draw economic activity away from income production and toward
speculation. The aim of the classical economists was to
incentivize production. This is a very different notion than
the neo-liberal one of labor-market "deregulation" (meaning
regulation in favor of employers over employees), which is
really just code for union smashing and an attack on real
wages, or the neo-liberal deregulation of financial markets,
which is a euphemism for enabling financial parasitism.
Hudson makes another observation in passing. The
observation is not central to his argument in the interview,
but is relevant to current debates over deficits and public
debt, and consistent with MMT. He notes that immediately
prior to the commencement of the only extended period of high
capitalist growth (WWII until the late 1960s), the US
population was not in debt, and in fact had pent up savings
from the war that it was waiting to spend.
By little or no debt, Hudson clarifies that he means
little or no private debt. There was, of course, a large
public debt – larger as a percentage of GDP than the current
US government "debt". This public debt did not matter, in
spite of the familiar opposition to deficits and public debt,
the echoes of which can be heard today, simply because the
budget deficit shrinks endogenously once private-sector
activity and income growth resume. This is precisely what
happened in the immediate postwar period.
Today, with the US government the monopoly issuer of its
own flexible exchange-rate fiat currency, public "debt" is –
or rather should be – even less of an issue. Unlike in the
immediate postwar period, the government is not subject to
the constraints of Bretton Woods or a similar
commodity-backed money system. It is free to utilize its
fiscal capacity to the extent necessary to restore full
employment.
Government "debt" is nothing other than the accumulated
net financial wealth of the non-government. Once the
non-government is ready to spend, income growth will deliver
stronger revenues, reducing the deficit. But the private
sector needs to have its debt under control before it will
resume spending at levels sufficient to sustain strong
economic growth.
In addition to the absence of significant private debt at
the end of WWII, there were other factors that contributed to
the strong growth of the immediate postwar period, including
Keynesian demand-management policies, a progressive tax
system, and significant financial regulation. All these
beneficial features of the economy were gradually undermined,
and then exposed to outright attack from the 1970s onwards.
Hudson discusses how, over time, much of the progressivity
in the tax system was removed, paving the way for the
construction of the inequitable and anti-productive monster
of today. Keynesian demand-management policies were also
largely eschewed throughout the neo-liberal era on the basis
of an opportunistic misinterpretation of the stagflation of
the 1970s. All this took place alongside deregulation of the
financial sector and an aggressive dismantling of worker
employment protections.
The result of this neo-liberal policy mix was an
increasing financialization and "rentification" of the
economy, widening income inequality, and an adherence to
fiscal austerity that directly corresponded, as a matter of
accounting, to an unsustainable build up in the only US debt
that matters – private debt – and culminated in the Global
Financial Crisis and Great Recession.
If the aim is to restore sustainable growth under
capitalism (which is not my preferred social system, but
presumably the one commanding the allegience of
policymakers), the insights obtained from the classical
economists in conjunction with the lessons of the postwar
period would seem to suggest some combination of the
following policy responses: tighter regulations of
speculative activities; a more steeply progressive tax system
targeted at the confiscation of economic rents and the
incentivization of production and consumption; stronger
worker protections; and the abandonment of the faulty
construct of a 'government budget constraint' and a return to
deficit expenditure sufficient to underpin non-government net
saving and full employment.
But the actual policy response has instead been to
manipulate financial markets to engineer a massive transfer
of wealth to the rentiers and exacerbate income and wealth
inequality; to continue with the approach of taxing wage and
profit income along with consumption rather than economic
rents; and possibly even to revert foolishly to austerity
while the private sector remains deeply indebted.
Corporate income tax is an inefficient way to generate tax
revenues. A) Large corps can avoid it and B) the incidence
matters and I'm not sure we are always taxing who
left-wingers think we are taxing (it is not who pays the tax
but who bears the incidence of the tax that matters).
VAT
is much smarter and can be made less regressive A) exclude
essentials like non-prepared food bought at grocery stores B)
provide fixed rebate across the board.
And at the end of the day even if VAT is on net
"regressive" on the tax inflow side, remember that the
benefits are "regressive" too, that is to say the people at
the bottom of the income scale receive benefits that as a
percentage of income are much much much higher than the well
to do.
Important note: I am all for cutting our military spending
by say 50% (I know arbitrary number but it will certainly be
Yuge). Bring the troops home and stop playing world police
men. We shouldn't be militarily picking sides in Yemen or
Syria. Offer humanitarian aid at a fraction of the cost.
I originally tried to post this comment
on Mainly Macro. It is in reply to some critical comments I received when I posted a comment suggesting
economists themselves were largely responsible for the unpleasant political consequences typified
by Trump and Brexit. I argued there has been a failure to properly communicate the serious distributional
implications of trade and globalization. This has led people to become disillusioned with stagnant
living standards and growing inequality. For some reason, my reply was disallowed, making it appear
as though I had no answer to my critics. As my reply addresses issues of concern here I am hoping
it will be published .
Thankyou for your replies to my comment.
Stéphane, I did not say trade gain arises from price convergence; neither do trade gains arise
from differences in opportunity costs (I think that is what you meant). Trade gain can arise from
several sources, these include relative differences in productive efficiency (Ricardian comparative
advantage), differences in relative factor abundance (HO theory), from tradeable goods where production
exhibits increasing returns to scale and from monopolistic competition (Krugman).
When trade gain is exhausted it is possible to derive further gains from factor mobility. For
example, shifting capital from a capital abundant region to a capital poor region will typically
result in further gains. An example of this process is off-shoring, where a firm shifts production
to another country where wages are lower and rent (the return on capital invested) is higher.
So why are potential gains from globalization a problem? The challenge is the sheer size of the
population industrializing from a very low capital base. Economically big regions with abundant labour
and scarce capital mean low wages and high rents extending into the long term. For a developed economy,
adopting a policy of free trade without capital controls with these regions will have two significant
consequences:
1. There is a trade induced shift to more capital intensive production driven by the factor advantage
of having a relative abundance of capital. This lowers the domestic labour share of GDP.
2. Capital abundance implies a capital drain as domestic saving is increasingly used to finance
foreign investment in productive capacity, driven by the higher foreign return. This correspondingly
lowers domestic investment which also slows growth. Labour now has less capital applied to it, reducing
labour productivity and also wages.
What are called "magnification effects" virtually guarantee wage earners are big losers in these
scenarios, whereas, capital owners are big winners; hence the rise in inequality.
The theoretical support for this view is very robust. I became interested in the debate when such
effects showed up strongly in the numerical trade models I develop. Economists, generally, have not
supported this basic theoretical perspective, preferring a grab bag of miscellaneous empirically
based models. Rapid technological change, too little technological change, skills biased technological
change, union demise, banks unwilling to lend, demographics, austerity, labour hoarding, financialization,
shift in consumer preference to services and on and on. Personally, I prefer basic economic theory
and regard all of these thought bubbles as garbage.
In answer to Anonymous, it is true; many economists assert automation is the principle cause of
our economic woes. This is theoretically baseless. I cannot describe a model of how technological
improvement is supposed to give rise to the above effects, because no such model exists. Improved
technology means we get more goods and services from the same resources of capital and labour, boosting
growth and wages and rents.
Why voting for Article 50 * may ruin an MP's career
The last time I did something like this was to urge Labour party members to vote for Smith
rather than Corbyn, knowing full well that Corbyn was almost certain to win. Being proved right
on that occasion is no consolation, because I would rather have been wrong. This is even more
futile, but now as then I feel a decision is about to be made that is both disastrous and irreversible.
I also want to say something about the longer term interests of MPs that I have not seen said
elsewhere.
There are so many principled reasons for MPs to vote against triggering Article 50. Let
me summarise what I see as the main ones here, but this is far from comprehensive....
Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union is a part of European Union law that sets out
the process by which member states may withdraw from the European Union.
1. Neoliberal economists are stooges of financial oligarchy
(much like Soviet economists were stooges of Communist Party)
and if they do not promote Washington consensus on trade and
globalization they would be ostracized and replaced by other
no less talented puppets. They all are replaceable and they understand
that perfectly well and behave accordingly. Being puppets they
have no degrees of freedom to express the discontent with neoliberalism.
2. The author himself is still in completely under the spell
of neoclassical economic framework. that's why his critique is
so superficial. As in "There is a trade induced shift to more
capital intensive production driven by the factor advantage of
having a relative abundance of capital. This lowers the domestic
labour share of GDP. " What a "neoliberal speak." Reminds me
1984 Newspeak. That was a political decision to shift capital
to developing countries in order to destroy union power and decimate
"trade unionism" as political force opposing to neoliberalism.
As simple as that.
These are giddy times for the forces of reason and light.
A surge of resistance to a bumbling and unstable president
has sent millions of people into the streets, into the faces
of politicians, and into bookstores to make best sellers
again of authoritarian nightmare stories.
And all of that hasn't changed the fact that Democrats,
the opposition party, are more removed from power than at
almost any point in history. Republicans control everything
in Washington, two-thirds of state legislative chambers and
33 governor's mansions.
Every day brings some fresh affront to decency, some
assault on progress, some blow to the truth. The people who
run the White House can't spell, can't govern, can't get
through a news cycle without insulting an ally or defaming a
cherished institution. Republicans just shrug and move on, in
lock step with a leader who wants to set the country back a
century. From their view, things are going swimmingly.
Outraged about the ban on people from Muslim-majority
nations? So what. About half of the nation, and a majority of
Republicans, are in favor of it. Upset over the return of
Wall Street pirates to power? President Trump's supporters
aren't.
Democrats haven't been able to stop a single one of
Trump's gallery of ill-qualified, ethically challenged and
backward-thinking cabinet appointees. His pick for labor
secretary, Andrew Puzder, doesn't believe people should be
paid a living wage to stir a milkshake, and he hired an
undocumented immigrant to clean his house. He'll fit right
in.
Millions of reasonable people are appalled that a madman
is in charge of the country. But tell that to Mitch McConnell
when he cuts off the right of a fellow senator to speak. Or
tell it to Paul Ryan when he can't find his copy of the
Constitution he has sworn to uphold. These invertebrate
leaders don't care if Trump's residence is a house of lies.
They don't care that their president is a sexual predator, or
that his family is using the office to enrich themselves. All
they care about is the R stitched to his jersey.
When Adlai Stevenson was told that all thinking people
were with him in his race for president, he famously
responded: "That's not enough. I need a majority."
And so, too, do the Democrats. This week, the powerless
party went into their winter cave for an annual retreat -
three days of soul-searching and strategizing.
"This is our moment in history," the House minority
leader, Nancy Pelosi, told her fellow Ds. "This man in the
White House is incoherent, incompetent and dangerous. And we
have to protect children and other living things from him."
Feels good, right? Sorry. The Democrats shouldn't mistake
a sugar high for nutrition. They're still getting their butts
kicked. Being Not Trump gained them only a net of six seats
in the House in November's election, and will not be enough
to win a majority in 2018.
Reliance on identity politics and media-cushioned
affirmation, and a blind spot to the genuine pain of the
white working class, is precisely what produced a President
Trump. For the next year, Democrats should filter their
policy initiatives through the eyes of the person Trump
claims to speak for - the forgotten American.
Of course, Trump's phrase was lifted from somewhere else.
Franklin Roosevelt first rode to victory in 1932 by urging
fellow citizens to put faith in "the forgotten man at the
bottom of the economic pyramid."
Roosevelt actually did something for that overlooked
American - Social Security, minimum wage, building roads,
bridges and dams - and was rewarded with a majority coalition
that carried the United States to new heights. Therein lies
the way back to power for Democrats.
When Democrats lost the South - for multiple generations,
as it turned out - it put them in a deep hole, forcing them
to rely on a surge of young and Latino voters to turn the
demographic tide, or candidates with broad appeal beyond the
party strongholds on the coasts.
President Obama left office with soaring approval numbers
and a great legacy. But Democrats also lost 1,034 state and
federal offices in his time. Whites are still 70 percent of
the vote. If Democrats continue to hemorrhage voters among
the working class, they will never see the presidency, or
even expect to govern in one house, for a long time.
The way out is not that difficult. Yes, they should engage
in hand-to-hand combat in the capital. And certainly,
Democrats must turn to the courts when the rule of law is
broken. But they have to be for something, as well - a master
policy narrative, promoting things that help average
Americans. The old Broadway adage was how it will play in
Peoria. For Democrats, they should think of Joe Biden's
Scranton, Pa., every time they take to a podium.
The follow-up to Pelosi's statement is "No [kidding]. What
actions are you taking to protect said children and living
things?"
What's the plan for supporting Water Protectors and DAPL
protesters? What's the plan for shutting down the Senate
after McConnell and co exercise the nuclear option to force a
vote on Gorsuch? What's the plan for preventing a vote on
Gorsuch? How about CBP personnel who ignore court orders? Not
an unreasonable expectation that some will - what to do about
them? Expressions of outrage are easily ignored if there's no
follow-up action. Perpetrators' lives need to be made
difficult.
BY: Right. Brexit and maybe even Trump's
victory say something about the arrogance of the elite.
Bankers say that free trade should prevail. Even we,
academics-how many of us are actually looking into
distribution and redistribution? Few. We're still spending
time on writing dynamic models to talk about the gains of
trade.
Even if old-fashioned free trade is correct, the speed of
adjustment is very important. We know that rapid adjustment
is no good. How many of us ask ourselves what should be the
adjustment in trade? We rarely talk about that.
The world may have changed. I gave you my conjecture. But we
are also arrogant. We hold on to our old beliefs on the gains
of trade.
----
Very Dani Rodrick, I thought. Interesting stuff.
Also, this is something that I think you'll like. I have not
read all of it yet but here is the link and an excerpt:
http://evonomics.com/time-new-economic-thinking-based-best-science-available-not-ideology/
"Some will cling on to the idea that the consensus can be
revived. They will say we just need to defend it more
vigorously, the facts will eventually prevail, the populist
wave is exaggerated, it's really just about immigration,
Brexit will be a compromise, Clinton won more votes than
Trump, and so on. But this is wishful thinking. Large swathes
of the electorate have lost faith in the neoliberal
consensus, the political parties that backed it, and the
institutions that promoted it. This has created an
ideological vacuum being filled by bad old ideas, most
notably a revival of nationalism in the US and a number of
European countries, as well as a revival of the hard
socialist left in some countries."
I think Peter K has been making similar points for a long
time now. Interesting stuff.
Consensus among whom? The economic-political elite? Maybe;
but certainly not among the general electorate. Most voters
were voting for parties out of habit, or on cultural issues
(for or against diversity and civil rights), or bread &
butter economic issues ("the Republicans will cut my taxes
and the regulation of my business" versus "the Democrats will
preserve my Medicare and Social Security"). I don't think
most voters had/have any clue of what neoliberalism is.
Well, you raise an excellent point. I don't have a solid
rejoinder but I will note that if even 5% of the electorate
changes its mind an election result can flip one way or the
other. But, yes, I agree with you that most voters are not
selecting a candidate based on which candidate's economic
philosophy is most closely aligned with theirs. Still,
especially in the primaries, where the voters are a different
population than the general, it could make a difference. I
would argue that it was just this difference that made
Sanders surprisingly popular among the Democratic primary
voters.
The question is to what extent people were voting FOR a
candidate, as AGAINST a candidate or the status quo. That's
the only point I was trying to make.
Most voters have neither the time, energy, inclination, or
knowledge base to delve into the issues to make an informed
decision on which candidate/platform most reflects their
values and aspirations. They subcontract out that vetting of
individual candidates to parties that they believe are
broadly reflective of their views.
This past general election, and its preceding primaries,
was the result of a broad revolt against the candidates
anointed by the parties' elites, indicating deep
dissatisfaction with the status quo.
"I think Peter K has been making similar points for a long
time now. Interesting stuff."
Yes I liked the as well.
Luigi Zingales is a member of the editorial board for Pro
Market and he had some piece published in the New York Times
about economics and politics (specifically Italian I think).
He was the first I read who compared Trump with Silvio
Berlusconi. Zingales discussed how Berlusconi was brought
down, by being treated as an ordinary conservative
politician. Perhaps the same will work with Trump.
Yes, I had read the evonomics piece and thought it was good.
Thanks. Eric Beinhocker makes some good points. I liked his
optimism as far as some forms of populism were concerned, and
had a slight hope that Donald Trump might turn into a
Theodore Roosevelt type of populist. That hope has
disappeared completely and now we face the realization that
we are truly completely screwed.
asymmetric information, and the recent illuminating example
of Wells Fargo's excellence in pushing products that
customers did not want nor need.
BY: Some financial "innovation" is faddish. It does not
create value.
GR: Approximately 9 percent of U.S. GDP is finance. Some
economists argue that probably 3-5 percent is useful for
allocating capital, storing value, smoothing consumptions,
and creating competition, and the rest is preying on
asymmetric information
"
~~Guy Roinik~
Do you see how this asymmetric information
plays out?
It is the retail vendor who keeps better information than
the retail customer. It is the vendor's expectations of
disinflation vs inflation rather than the customer's
expectations that control the change in M2V. Got it?
When vendor expects deflation he dumps inventory, but when
he expects inflation he holds on to inventory as he waits for
higher profit margins to arrive. He holds onto merchandise by
simply raising prices. But why do economists advertise the
reverse mechanism? Why does the status quo have a need for
distorting truth?
Inflation is offered to the proles as a substitute for tax
relief to the impoverished. Do you see how it works?
"
Tax relief for the wealthy will give you delicious inflation.
Now jump for it!
"
~~The Yea Sayers~
NAFTA Has Harmed Mexico a Lot More than Any Wall Could Do
By Mark Weisbrot
President Trump is unlikely to fulfill his dream of
forcing Mexico to pay for his proposed wall along the United
States' southern border. If it is built, it would almost
certainly be US taxpayers footing the bill, with some
estimates as high as $50 billion. But it's worth taking a
step back to look at the economics of US-Mexican relations,
to see how immigration from Mexico even became an issue in US
politics that someone like Trump could try to use to his
advantage.
NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement) is a good
starting point. While it has finally become more widely
recognized that such misleadingly labelled "free trade"
agreements have hurt millions of US workers, it is still
common among both liberal and right-wing commentators to
assume that NAFTA has been good for Mexico. This assumption
is forcefully contradicted by the facts.
If we look at the most basic measure of economic progress,
the growth of GDP, or income, per person, Mexico ranks
fifteenth out of 20 Latin American countries since it joined
NAFTA in 1994. Other measures show an even sadder picture.
According to Mexico's latest national statistics, the poverty
rate in 2014 was 55.1 percent ― actually higher than the 52.4
rate in 1994.
Wages tell a similar story: almost no growth in real
(inflation-adjusted) wages since 1994 ― just about 4.1
percent over 21 years.
Why did Mexico fare so poorly under NAFTA? We must
understand that NAFTA was a continuation of policies that
began in the 1980s, under pressure from Washington and the
International Monetary Fund, when Mexico was particularly
vulnerable during a debt crisis and world recession. These
policies included the deregulation and liberalization of
manufacturing, foreign investment and ownership (70 percent
of Mexico's banking system is now foreign owned). Mexico also
moved away from the pro-development policies of the previous
decades toward a new, neoliberal prescription that tied
Mexico ever more closely to its northern neighbor and its
questionable ideas about economic development.
The purpose of NAFTA was to lock in these changes and
policies in an international treaty, so that they would be
more difficult to reverse. It was also designed to add
special privileges for transnational corporations, like the
right to sue governments for regulations that reduced their
potential profits ― even those dealing with public health or
environmental safety. These lawsuits are decided by a
tribunal of mostly corporate lawyers who are not bound by
precedent or any national legal system.
About two million net jobs were lost in Mexican
agriculture, with millions more displaced, as imported
subsidized corn wiped out small farmers. From 1994–2000,
immigration to the US from Mexico increased by 79 percent,
before dropping off in the 2000s.
Now about that wall: if the Mexican economy had just
continued to grow post-1980, as it did for the two decades
prior, Mexicans would have an average income at European
levels today. Extremely few Mexicans would take big risks to
live or work in the US. But growth collapsed after 1980,
under Washington's failed experiment. Even if we look just at
the 23 years post-NAFTA ― the much better years ― GDP per
person has grown by just 29 percent, a fraction of the 99
percent growth from 1960–1980.
The wall would cause significant environmental as well as
economic damage, if it is ever built. But it is the long-term
damage that Washington has helped visit upon the Mexican
economy that has brought us to the point where a US president
could even propose such a monstrosity.
What is startling to me and little understood is that between
1992 and 2015 real per capita growth in Mexico was slower
than in every country in South America other than Venezuela,
slower than every country in Central America, slower than
Canada or the United States in North America, slower than
every country in the Caribbean other than Jamaica for which
there is growth data.
Total factor productivity in Mexico
actually declined after 1992 through 2014, with the
productivity experience being poorer than in every country in
South America other than Venezuela, poorer than in the 4 of 6
countries in Central America for which productivity is
recorded, poorer than in Canada or the United States in North
America, poorer than in every country in the Caribbean for
which there is productivity data.
Remarkably when I looked at the growth and productivity
experience of Mexico from 1992 on, relative to Spanish or
Portuguese language countries apart from this hemisphere, the
experience of Mexico was poorest of all. That means Spain,
Portugal, the Philippines and Angola for growth, and Spain,
Portugal and the Philippines for productivity.
Well, "monstrosity" might be a little strong, given its
history of bi-partisan support.
"WASHINGTON - As a senator,
Barack Obama once offered measured praise for the border
control legislation that would become the basis for one of
Donald Trump's first acts as president.
"The bill before us will certainly do some good," Obama
said on the Senate floor in October 2006. He praised the
legislation, saying it would provide "better fences and
better security along our borders" and would "help stem some
of the tide of illegal immigration in this country."
Obama was talking about the Secure Fence Act of 2006,
legislation authorizing a barrier along the southern border
passed into law with the support of 26 Democratic senators
including party leaders like Hillary Clinton, Joe Biden, and
Chuck Schumer."
In the House of Representatives, the Fence Act passed
283–138, and in the Senate 80–19. The bill was signed into
law in October 2006.
Decade of Reform: Ecuador's Macroeconomic Policies,
Institutional Changes, and Results
By Mark Weisbrot, Jake Johnston, and Lara Merling
Executive Summary
This paper looks at some of the institutional, policy, and
regulatory changes enacted by the government of Ecuador, as
well as overall economic and social indicators, over the
decade since the Rafael Correa government took office.
Among the highlights:
Indicators
Annual per capita GDP growth during the past decade
(2006–2016) was 1.5 percent, as compared to 0.6 percent over
the prior 26 years. This is a significant improvement,
despite the fact that the economy was hit by major external
economic shocks.
The poverty rate declined by 38 percent, and extreme
poverty by 47 percent. Much of the decline in poverty was a
result of economic growth and employment, but some was also a
result of government programs that helped poor people, such
as the cash transfer program Bono de Desarollo Humano, which
more than doubled in size as a percent of GDP.
The reduction in poverty was many times larger than that
of the previous decade.
Inequality also fell substantially, as measured by the
Gini coefficient (from 0.55 to 0.47), or by the ratio of the
top 10 percent to the bottom 10 percent of the income
distribution (from 36 to 25, as of 2012).
The government doubled social spending, as a percentage of
GDP, from 4.3 percent in 2006 to 8.6 percent in 2016. This
included large increases in spending on education, health,
and urban development and housing.
There were significant gains in enrollment at various
levels of education. Spending on higher education increased
from 0.7 to 2.1 percent of GDP; this is the highest level of
government spending on higher education in Latin America, and
higher than the average of the Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development countries.
Government expenditure on health services doubled as a
percentage of GDP from 2006 to 2016.
Public investment increased from 4 percent of GDP in 2006
to 14.8 percent in 2013, before falling to about 10 percent
of GDP in 2016.
Policy Changes and Reforms
The 2008 constitution reverses the mandate of the 1998
constitution that had made the Central Bank formally
independent of the government, with its most important
responsibility to ensure price stability. The Central Bank
became part of the economic team of the executive branch.
The government defaulted on $3.2 billion, about one-third
of its foreign debt, in December 2008 after an international
commission found that it was illegally or illegitimately
contracted.
A domestic liquidity requirement for banks was
established. This mandates that all banks hold 45 percent of
their liquid assets domestically. This was increased to 60
percent in August 2012, and the actual amount of these
reserves held domestically increased to more than 80 percent
by 2015.
A tax on capital leaving the country raised about $1
billion annually in government revenue from 2012 to 2015.
Government revenue increased from 27 percent of GDP in
2007 to a peak of 44 percent in 2012, before falling to 30
percent in 2016.
A fiscal stimulus of 5 percent of GDP was enacted in 2009,
to help minimize damage from the world recession, and a
collapse in oil prices and remittances.
The "solidarity-based" part of the financial sector ―
cooperatives, credit unions, savings and loan associations,
and other member-based organizations - expanded from 8.3
percent of total credit in 2008 to 13.6 percent in 2016.
From 2011 to 2016, $6.8 billion of quantitative easing
(QE) was used to ease a credit crunch, government spending,
and loans from state-owned banks.
Central bank credit to the government (as a part of QE)
increased to 2.4 percent of GDP in 2016, as part of an effort
to combat recession.
The primary budget deficit increased from $3.4 billion to
$4.3 billion, from 2013 to 2014. It then decreased to $3.7
billion in 2015, before rising to $6.1 billion (about 6
percent of GDP) in 2016.
In March 2015, the government adopted a temporary balance
of payments safeguard, under World Trade Organization rules,
in response to the collapse of oil prices and the
appreciation of the US dollar. This move enabled Ecuador to
impose tariffs on a range of imports.
A reduction of imports as a result of tariffs adopted
under the balance of payments safeguard provided a stimulus
of about 7.6 percent of GDP, thus counteracting spending
cuts.
... A 2015 survey by the U.S. Dept. of Transportation
found there are more than 450 structurally deficient bridges
in the state, although the number is down from previous
years. Every working day, nearly 10 million cars, trucks, and
school buses cross these deteriorating overpasses. And then
there's the nation's rail system and airports, which lag far
behind other nations in speed, efficiency, and modernization.
...
Bridgework and a partial plate! Should we shift gears on
our interstate construction?
By building our long haul interstates as one-way roads
interleaved with roads going in other direction, we could
have twice as many roads but intersections could be much
simpler, efficient, and less confusing. Freeflow
overpass/underpass with turning ramps will save fuel thus
environment. Sure!
We waste lot of traffic control man hours and squad cars
that could be otherwise deployed towards solving crime and
crushing the mob. By proper design and construction of speed
bumps some of this highway patrol could be eliminated. Ceu!
Rather that short 2 foot bumps in the road, build smooth
slow and long valley and knoll that will not rattle your
frame and bill you for steering realignment but instead send
an 18 wheeler up into the air for a half gainer. This kind of
speed trap could eliminate lot of bad
Re: Still Seeking Growth From Tax Cuts and Union Busting -
Noah Smith
States should feel perfectly free to rebuild labor union
density -- one state at a time -- making union busting a
felony. Republicans will have no place to hide.
Suppose the 1935 Congress passed the NLRA(a) intending to
leave any criminal sanctions for obstructing union organizing
to the states. Might have been because NLRB(b) conducted
union elections take place local by local (not nationwide)
and Congress could have opined states would deal more
efficiently with home conditions -- or whatever. What extra
words might Congress have needed to add to today's actual
bill? Actually, today's identical NLRA wording would have
sufficed perfectly.
Suppose, again, that under the RLA (Railroad Labor Act --
covers railroads and airlines, FedEx) -- wherein elections
are conducted nationally -- that Congress desired to forbid
states criminalizing the firing of organizers -- how could
Congress have worded such a preemption (assuming it was
constitutionally valid)? Shouldn't matter to us. Congress did
not! :-O
NYT's Nate Cohn reports Trump won by trading places with
Obama as blue collar hero v Wall Street -- trade (unions)
back. Republicans will have no place to hide.
"... More than any other economist of his century, Marx tied together the three major kinds of crisis that were occurring. His Theories of Surplus Value explained the two main forms of crises his classical predecessors had pointed to, and which the bourgeois revolutions of 1848 were fought over. These crises were the result of survivals from Europe's feudal epoch of landed aristocracy and banking fortunes. ..."
"... Financially, Marx pointed to the tendency of debts to grow exponentially, independently of the economy's ability to pay, and indeed faster than the economy itself. The rise in debt and accrual of interest was autonomous from the industrial capital and wage labor dynamics on which Volume I of Capital focused. Debts are self-expanding by purely mathematical rules – the "magic of compound interest." ..."
"... Industrial companies profit from labor not only by employing it, but by lending to customers. General Motors made most of its profits for many years by its credit arm, GMAC (General Motors Acceptance Corp.), as did General Electric through its financial arm. Profits made by Macy's and other retailers on their credit card lending sometimes accounted for their entire earnings. ..."
"... This privatization of rents and their transformation into a flow of interest payments (shifting the tax burden onto wage income and corporate profits) represents a failure of industrial capitalism to free society from the legacies of feudalism. ..."
"... Marx expected economies to act in their long-term interest to increase the means of production and avoid unproductive rentier income, underconsumption and debt deflation. Believing that every mode of production was shaped by the technological, political and social needs of economies to advance, he expected banking and finance to become subordinate to these dynamics. ..."
"... It seemed that the banking system's role as allocator of credit would pave the way for a socialist organization of economies. Marx endorsed free trade on the ground that industrial capitalism would transform and modernize the world's backward countries. Instead, it has brought Western rentier finance and privatization of the land and natural resources, and even brought the right to use these country's currencies and financial systems as casinos. And in the advanced creditor nations, failure of the U.S. and European economies to recover from their 2008 financial crisis stems from leaving in place the reckless "junk mortgage" debts, whose carrying charges are absorbing income. Banks were saved instead of industrial economies, whose debts were left in place. ..."
"... No observer of Marx's epoch was so pessimistic as to expect finance capital to overpower industrial capitalism, engulfing economies as the world is seeing today. Discussing the 1857 financial crisis, Marx showed how unthinkable anything like the 2008-09 Bush-Obama bailout of financial speculators seemed to be in his day. "The entire artificial system of forced expansion of the reproduction process cannot, of course, be remedied by having some bank, like the Bank of England, give to all the swindlers the deficient capital by means of its paper and having it buy up all the depreciated commodities at their old nominal values." [6] ..."
"... Marx wrote this reductio ad absurdum not dreaming that it would become the Federal Reserve's policy in autumn 2008. The U.S. Treasury paid off all of A.I.G.'s gambles and other counterparty "casino capitalist" losses at taxpayer expense, followed by the Federal Reserve buying junk mortgage packages at par. ..."
"... The failure to socialize banking (or even to complete its industrialization) has become the most glaring economic tragedy of Western industrial capitalism. It became the tragedy of post-Soviet Russia after 1991, letting its natural resources and industrial economy be financialized while failing to tax land and natural resource rent. The commanding heights were sold to domestic oligarchs and Western investors buying on credit with their own banks or in association with Western banks. This bank credit was simply created on computer keyboards. Such credit creation should be a public utility, but it has broken free from public regulation in the West. That credit is now reaching out to China and the post-Soviet economies as a means of appropriating their resources. ..."
"... Note: Marx described productive capital investment by the formula M–C–M´, signifying money (M) invested to produce commodities (C) that sell for yet more money (M´). But the growth of "usury capital" – government bond financing for war deficits, and consumer lending (mortgages, personal loans and credit card debt) – consist of the disembodied M–M´, making money simply from money in a sterile operation. ..."
The Paradox of Financialized Industrialization
By Michael Friday, October 16, 2015
These remarks were made at the World Congress on Marxism, 2015, at the School of Marxism, Peking
University, October 10, 2015. The presentation was part of a debate with Bertell Ollman (NYU).
I was honored to be made a permanent Guest Professor at China's most prestigious university.
When I lectured here at the Marxist School six years ago, someone asked me whether Marx was
right or wrong. I didn't know how to answer this question at the time, because the answer is so
complex. But at least today I can focus on his view of crises.
More than any other economist of his century, Marx tied together the three major kinds
of crisis that were occurring. His Theories of Surplus Value explained the two main forms of crises
his classical predecessors had pointed to, and which the bourgeois revolutions of 1848 were fought
over. These crises were the result of survivals from Europe's feudal epoch of landed aristocracy
and banking fortunes.
Financially, Marx pointed to the tendency of debts to grow exponentially, independently
of the economy's ability to pay, and indeed faster than the economy itself. The rise in debt and
accrual of interest was autonomous from the industrial capital and wage labor dynamics on which
Volume I of Capital focused. Debts are self-expanding by purely mathematical rules – the "magic
of compound interest."
We can see in America and Europe how interest charges, stock buybacks, debt leveraging and
other financial maneuverings eat into profits, deterring investment in plant and equipment by
diverting revenue to economically empty financial operations. Marx called finance capital "imaginary"
or "fictitious" to the extent that it does not stem from within the industrial economy, and because
– in the end – its demands for payment cannot be met. Calling this financial accrual a "void form
of capital."
[1] It was fictitious because it consisted of bonds, mortgages, bank loans and other rentier
claims on the means of production and the flow of wages, profit and tangible capital investment.
The second factor leading to economic crisis was more long-term: Ricardian land rent. Landlords
and monopolists levied an "ownership tax" on the economy by extracting rent as a result of privileges
that (like interest) were independent of the mode of production. Land rent would rise as economies
became larger and more prosperous. More and more of the economic surplus (profits and surplus
value) would be diverted to owners of land, natural resources and monopolies. These forms of economic
rent were the result of privileges that had no intrinsic value or cost of production. Ultimately,
they would push up wage levels and leave no room for profit. Marx described this as Ricardo's
Armageddon.
These two contributing forces to crisis, Marx pointed out, were legacies of Europe's feudal
origins: landlords conquering the land and appropriating natural resources and infrastructure;
and banks, which remained largely usurious and predatory, making war loans to governments and
exploiting consumers in petty usury. Rent and interest were in large part the products of wars.
As such, they were external to the means of production and its direct cost (that is, the value
of products).
Most of all, of course, Marx pointed to the form of exploitation of wage labor by its employers.
That did indeed stem from the capitalist production process. Bertell Ollman has just explained
that dynamic so well that I need not repeat it here.
Today's economic crisis in the West: financial and rent extraction, leading to debt deflation
Bertell Ollman has described how Marx analyzed economic crisis stemming from the inability of
wage labor to buy what it produces. That is the inner contradiction specific to industrial capitalism.
As described in Volume I of Capital, employers seek to maximize profits by paying workers as little
as possible. This leads to excessive exploitation of wage labor, causing underconsumption and
a market glut.
I will focus here on the extent to which today's financial crisis is largely independent of
the industrial mode of production. As Marx noted in Volumes II and III of Capital and Theories
of Surplus Value, banking and rent extraction are in many ways adverse to industrial capitalism.
Our debate is over how to analyze the crisis the Western economies are in today. To me, it
is first and foremost a financial crisis. The banking crisis and indebtedness stems mainly from
real estate mortgage loans – and also from the kind of massive fraud that Marx found characteristic
of the high finance of his day, especially in canal and railroad financing.
So to answer the question that I was asked about whether Marx was right or wrong, Marx certainly
provided the tools needed to analyze the crises that the industrial capitalist economies have
been suffering for the past two hundred years.
But history has not worked out the way Marx expected. He expected every class to act in its
own class interest. That is the only way to reasonably project the future. The historical task
and destiny of industrial capitalism, Marx wrote in the Communist Manifesto, was to free society
from the "excrescences" of interest and rent (mainly land and natural resource rent, along with
monopoly rent) that industrial capitalism had inherited from medieval and even ancient society.
These useless rentier charges on production are faux frais, costs that slow the accumulation of
industrial capital. They do not stem from the production process, but are a legacy of the feudal
warlords who conquered England and other European realms to found hereditary landed aristocracies.
Financial overhead in the form of usury-capital is, to Marx, a legacy of the banking families
that built up fortunes by war lending and usury.
Marx's concept of national income differs radically from today's National Income and Product
Accounts (NIPA). Every Western economy measures "output" as Gross National Product (GNP). This
accounting format includes the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) sector as part of the
economy's output. It does this because it treats rent and interest as "earnings," on the same
plane as wages and industrial profits – as if privatized finance, insurance and real estate are
part of the production process. Marx treated them as external to it. Their income was not "earned,"
but was "unearned." This concept was shared by the Physiocrats, Adam Smith, John Stuart Mill and
other major classical economists. Marx was simply pressing classical economics to its logical
conclusion.
The interest of the rising class of industrial capitalists was to free economies from this
legacy of feudalism, from the unnecessary faux frais of production – prices in excess of real
cost-value. The destiny of industrial capitalism, Marx believed, was to rationalize economies
by getting rid of the idle landlord and banking class – by socializing land, nationalizing natural
resources and basic infrastructure, and industrializing the banking system – to fund industrial
expansion instead of unproductive usury.
If capitalism had achieved this destiny, it would have been left primarily with the crisis
between industrial employers and workers discussed in Volume I of Capital: exploiting wage labor
to a point where labor could not buy its products. But at the same time, industrial capitalism
would be preparing the way for socialism, because industrialists needed to conquer the political
stranglehold of the landed aristocracy and the financial power of banking. It needed to promote
democratic political reform to overcome the vested interests in control of Parliaments and hence
the tax system. Labor's organization and voting power would press its own self-interest and turn
capitalism into socialism.
China has indeed exemplified this path. But it has not occurred in the West.
All three kinds of crisis that Marx described are occurring. But the West is now in a chronic
depression – what has been called Debt Deflation. Instead of banking being industrialized as Marx
expected, industry is being financialized. Instead of democracy freeing economies from land rent,
natural resource rent and monopoly rent, the rentiers have fought back and taken control of Western
governments, legal systems and tax policy. The result is that we are seeing a lapse back to the
pre-capitalist problems that Marx described in Volumes II and III of Capital and Theories of Surplus
Value.
This is where the debate between Bertell Ollman and myself centers. My focus is on finance
and rent overwhelming industrial capitalism to impose a depression stemming from debt deflation.
This over-indebtedness is making the labor/capital problem worse, by weakening labor's political
and economic position. To make matters worse, labor parties in the West no longer are fighting
over economic issues, as they were prior to World War I.
My differences with Ollman and Roemer: I focus on non-production costs
Bertell follows Marx in focusing on the production sector: hiring labor to produce products, but
trying to get as much markup as possible – while underselling rivals. This is Marx's great contribution
to the analysis of capitalism and its mode of production – employing wage labor at a profit. I
agree with this analysis.
However, my focus is on the causes of today's crisis that are independent and autonomous from
production: rentier claims for economic rent, for income without work – "empty" pricing without
value. This focus on rent and interest is where I differ from that of Ollman, and also of course
from that of Roemer. Any model of the crisis must tie together finance, real estate (and other
rent-seeking) as well as industry and employment.
The rising debt overhead can be traced mathematically, as can the symbiosis of the Finance,
Insurance and Real Estate (FIRE) sector. But the interactions are too complex to be made into
a single economic "model." I am especially worried that Roemer's model might be followed here
in China, because it overlooks the most dangerous tendencies threatening China today: Western
financial practice and its pro-rentier tax policy.
China has spent the last half-century solving Marx's "Volume I" problem: the relations between
labor and its employers, recycling the economic surplus into new means of production to provide
more output, higher living standards, and most obviously, more infrastructure (roads, railways,
airlines) and housing.
But right now, it is experiencing financial problems from credit creation going into the stock
market instead of into tangible capital formation and rising consumption standards. And of course,
China has experienced a large real estate boom. Land prices are rising in China, much as they
are in the West.
What would Marx have said about this? I think that he would have warned China not to relapse
into the pre-capitalist problems of finance funding real estate – turning the rising land rent
into interest – and into permitting housing prices to rise without taxing them away.
Soviet planning failed to take the rent-of-location into account when planning where to build
housing and factories. But at least the Soviet era did not force labor or industry to pay interest
or for rising housing prices. Government banks simply created credit where it was needed to expand
the means of production, to build factories, machinery and equipment, homes and office buildings.
What worries me about the political consequences of Roemer's model is that it focuses only
on what Marx said about the production sector and employer-labor relations. It does not ask how
"endowments" come into being – or how China has changed so radically in the past generation. It
therefore neglects the danger of industrial capitalism lapsing back into a rent-and-interest economy.
And by the same token, it underplays the threat to China and other socialist economies of adopting
the West's surviving pre-feudal practices of predatory Bubble Finance (debt leveraging to raise
prices) and wealth in the form of land-rent charges.
These two dynamics – interest and rent – represent a privatization of banking and land that
rightly are public utilities. Marx expected industrial capitalism to achieve this transition.
Certainly socialist economies must achieve it!
China has no need of foreign bank credit – except to cover the cost of imports and the foreign-exchange
cost of investment in other countries. But China's foreign exchange reserves already are large
enough to be basically independent of the U.S. dollar and euro. Meanwhile, the American and European
economies are suffering from chronic debt deflation and depression that will reduce their ability
to serve as markets – for their own producers as well as for China.
Today's debt-wracked economies throw into question just what kind of crisis the capitalist
countries are experiencing. Marx's analysis provides the tools to analyze its financial, banking
and rent-extraction problems. However, most Marxists still view the 2008 financial and junk mortgage
crash as resulting ultimately from industrial employers squeezing wage labor. Finance capital
is viewed as a derivative of this exploitation, not as the autonomous dynamic Marx described.
The costs of carrying the rising debt burden (interest, amortization and penalties) deflate
the market for commodities by absorbing a growing wedge of disposable business and personal income.
This leaves less to be spent on goods and services, causing gluts that lead to crises in which
businesses scramble for money. Banks fail as bankruptcy spreads. By depleting markets, finance
capital is antithetical to the expansion of profits and tangible physical capital investment.
Despite this sterility, finance capital has achieved dominance over industrial capital. Transfers
of property from debtors to creditors – even privatizations of public assets and enterprises –
are inevitable as the growth of financial claims surpasses the ability of productive power and
earnings to keep pace. Foreclosures follow in the wake of crashes, enabling finance to take over
industrial companies and even governments.
China has largely solved the "Volume I" problem – that of expanding its internal market for
labor, investing the economic surplus in capital formation and rising living standards. It is
confronted by Western economies that have failed to solve this problem, and also have failed to
solve the "Volumes II and III" problem: finance and land rent. Yet few Western Marxists have applied
his theories to the present downturn and its rentier problem. Following Marx, they view the task
of solving this problem to be solved by industrial capitalism, starting with the bourgeois revolutions
of 1848.
Already in 1847, Marx's Poverty of Philosophy described the hatred that capitalists felt for
landlords, whose hereditary rents siphoned off income to an idle class. Upon being sent copies
of Henry George's Progress and Poverty a generation later, in 1881, he wrote to John Swinton that
taxing land rent was "a last attempt to save the capitalist regime." He dismissed the book as
falling under his 1847 critique of Proudhon: "We understand such economists as Mill, Cherbuliez,
Hilditch and others demanding that rent should be handed over to the state to serve in place of
taxes. That is a frank expression of the hatred the industrial capitalist bears towards the landed
proprietor, who seems to him a useless thing, an excrescence upon the general body of bourgeois
production."
[2]
As the program of industrial capital, the land tax movement stopped short of advocating labor's
rights and living standards. Marx criticized Proudhon and other critics of landlords by saying
that once you get rid of rent (and usurious interest by banks), you will still have the problem
of industrialists exploiting wage labor and trying to minimize their wages, drying up the market
for the goods they produce. This is to be the "final" economic problem to be solved – presumably
long after industrial capitalism has solved the rent and interest problems.
Industrial capitalism has failed to free economies from rentier interest and rent extraction
In retrospect, Marx was too optimistic about the future of industrial capitalism. As noted above,
he viewed its historical mission as being to free society from rent and usurious interest. Today's
financial system has generated an overgrowth of credit, while high rents are pricing American
labor out of world markets. Wages are stagnating, while the One Percent have monopolized the growth
in wealth and income since 1980 – and are not investing in new means of production. So we still
have the Volume II and III problems, not just a Volume I problem.
We are dealing with multiple organ failure.
Instead of funding new industrial capital formation, the stock and bond markets to transfer
ownership of companies, real estate and infrastructure already in place. About 80 percent of bank
credit is lent to buyers of real estate, inflating a mortgage bubble. Instead of taxing away the
land's rising rental and site value that John Stuart Mill described as what landlords make "in
their sleep," today's economies leave rental income "free" to be pledged to banks. The result
is that banks now play the role that landlords did in Marx's day: obtaining for themselves the
land's rising rental value. This reverses the central thrust of classical political economy by
keeping such rent away from government, along with natural resource and monopoly rents.
Industrial economies are being stifled by financial and other rentier dynamics. Rising mortgage
debt, student loans, credit card debt, automobile debt and payday loans have made workers afraid
to go on strike or even to protest working conditions. To the extent that wages do rise, they
must be paid increasingly to creditors (and now to privatized health insurance and drug monopolies),
not to buy the consumer goods they produce. Labor's debt dependency thus aggravates the "Volume
I" problem of labor's inability to purchase the products it produces. To top matters, when workers
seek to join the middle class "homeowner society" by purchasing their homes on mortgage instead
of paying rent, the price entails locking themselves into debt serfdom.
Industrial companies profit from labor not only by employing it, but by lending to customers.
General Motors made most of its profits for many years by its credit arm, GMAC (General Motors
Acceptance Corp.), as did General Electric through its financial arm. Profits made by Macy's and
other retailers on their credit card lending sometimes accounted for their entire earnings.
This privatization of rents and their transformation into a flow of interest payments (shifting
the tax burden onto wage income and corporate profits) represents a failure of industrial capitalism
to free society from the legacies of feudalism.
Marx expected industrial capitalism to act in its own self-interest by industrializing banking,
as Germany was doing along the lines that the French reformer Saint-Simon had urged. However,
industrial capitalism has failed to break free of pre-industrial usurious banking practice. And
in the sphere of tax policy, it has not shifted taxes away from land and natural resource rent.
It has inverted the classical reformers' idea of "free markets" as being free from economic rent
and predatory moneylending. The slogan now means economies free for the rentier class to extract
interest and rent.
Mode of production or mode of parasitism?
Instead of serving industrial capitalism, today's financial sector is bleeding it to death.
Instead of seeking profits by employing labor to produce goods at a markup, it doesn't even want
to hire labor or engage in the process of production and develop new markets. The epitome of this
postindustrial economics is Enron: its' managers wanted no capital at all – no employment, only
traders at a desk (and crooked accountants).
Today's characteristic mode of accumulating wealth is more by financial than industrial means:
riding the wave of debt-financed asset-price inflation to reap "capital" gains. This seemed unlikely
in Marx's era of the gold standard. Yet today, most academic Marxists still concentrate on his
"Volume I" crisis, neglecting finance capitalism's failure to free economies from the rentier
dynamics surviving from European feudalism and the colonial lands conquered by Europe.
Marxists who went into Wall Street have learned their lessons from Volumes II and III. But
academic Marxism has not focused on the FIRE sector – Finance, Insurance and Real Estate. It is
as if interest and rent extraction are secondary problems to the dynamics of wage labor.
The great question today is whether post-feudal rentier capitalism will stifle industrial capitalism
instead of serving it. The aim of finance is not merely to exploit labor, but to conquer and appropriate
industry, real estate and government. The result is a financial oligarchy, neither industrial
capitalism nor a tendency to evolve into socialism.
Marx's optimism that industrial capital would subordinate finance to serve its own needs
Having provided a compendium of historical citations describing how parasitic "usury capital"
multiplied at compound interest, Marx announced in an optimistic Darwinian tone that the destiny
of industrial capitalism was to mobilize finance capital to fund its economic expansion, rendering
usury an obsolete vestige of the "ancient" mode of production. It is as if "in the course of its
evolution, industrial capital must therefore subjugate these forms and transform them into derived
or special functions of itself." Finance capital would be subordinated to the dynamics of industrial
capital rather than growing to dominate it. "Where capitalist production has developed all its
manifold forms and has become the dominant mode of production," Marx concluded his draft notes
for Theories of Surplus Value, "interest-bearing capital is dominated by industrial capital, and
commercial capital becomes merely a form of industrial capital, derived from the circulation process."
[3]
Marx expected economies to act in their long-term interest to increase the means of production
and avoid unproductive rentier income, underconsumption and debt deflation. Believing that every
mode of production was shaped by the technological, political and social needs of economies to
advance, he expected banking and finance to become subordinate to these dynamics. "There is no
doubt," he wrote, "that the credit system will serve as a powerful lever during the transition
from the capitalist mode of production to the production by means of associated labor; but only
as one element in connection with other great organic revolutions of the mode of production itself."
[4]
The financial problem would take care of itself as industrial capitalism mobilized savings
productively, subordinating finance capital to serve its needs. This already was happening in
Germany and France.
It seemed that the banking system's role as allocator of credit would pave the way for a socialist
organization of economies. Marx endorsed free trade on the ground that industrial capitalism would
transform and modernize the world's backward countries. Instead, it has brought Western rentier
finance and privatization of the land and natural resources, and even brought the right to use
these country's currencies and financial systems as casinos. And in the advanced creditor nations,
failure of the U.S. and European economies to recover from their 2008 financial crisis stems from
leaving in place the reckless "junk mortgage" debts, whose carrying charges are absorbing income.
Banks were saved instead of industrial economies, whose debts were left in place.
Irving Fisher coined the term debt deflation in 1933. He described it as occurring when debt
service (interest and amortization) to pay banks and bondholders diverts income from being spent
on consumer goods and new business investment.
[5] Governments use their tax revenues to pay bondholders, cutting back public spending and
infrastructure investment, education, health and other social welfare.
No observer of Marx's epoch was so pessimistic as to expect finance capital to overpower industrial
capitalism, engulfing economies as the world is seeing today. Discussing the 1857 financial crisis,
Marx showed how unthinkable anything like the 2008-09 Bush-Obama bailout of financial speculators
seemed to be in his day. "The entire artificial system of forced expansion of the reproduction
process cannot, of course, be remedied by having some bank, like the Bank of England, give to
all the swindlers the deficient capital by means of its paper and having it buy up all the depreciated
commodities at their old nominal values."
[6]
Marx wrote this reductio ad absurdum not dreaming that it would become the Federal
Reserve's policy in autumn 2008. The U.S. Treasury paid off all of A.I.G.'s gambles and other
counterparty "casino capitalist" losses at taxpayer expense, followed by the Federal Reserve buying
junk mortgage packages at par.
Socialist policy regarding financial and tax reform
Marx described the historical destiny of industrial capitalism as being to free economies from
unproductive and predatory finance – from speculation, fraud and a diversion of income to pay
interest without funding new means of production. On this logic, it should be the destiny of socialist
economies to treat bank credit creation as a public function, to be used for public purposes –
to increase prosperity and the means of production to give populations a better life. Socialist
nations have freed their economies from the internal contradictions of industrial capitalism that
stifle wage labor.
China has solved the "Volume I" problem. But it still must deal with the West's unsolved "Volume
II and III" problem of privatized finance, land rent and natural resource rent. Western economies
seek to extend these neoliberal practices to use finance as a lever to pry away the economic surplus,
to finance the transfer of property at interest, and to turn profits, rent, wages and other income
into interest.
The failure to socialize banking (or even to complete its industrialization) has become
the most glaring economic tragedy of Western industrial capitalism. It became the tragedy of post-Soviet
Russia after 1991, letting its natural resources and industrial economy be financialized while
failing to tax land and natural resource rent. The commanding heights were sold to domestic oligarchs
and Western investors buying on credit with their own banks or in association with Western banks.
This bank credit was simply created on computer keyboards. Such credit creation should be a public
utility, but it has broken free from public regulation in the West. That credit is now reaching
out to China and the post-Soviet economies as a means of appropriating their resources.
The eurozone seems incapable of saving itself from debt deflation, and the United States and
Britain likewise are limping along as they de-industrialize. That is what leads them to hope that
perhaps socialist China can save them – as long as it remains free of the financial disease. asset
stripping and debt deflation. Western neoliberal economists claim that this financialization of
erstwhile industrial capitalism is "progress," and even the end of history. Yet having watched
China grow while their economies have remained stagnant since 2008 (except for the One Percent),
their hope is that socialist China's market can save their financialized economies driven too
deeply into debt to recover on their own.
Note: Marx described productive capital investment by the formula M–C–M´, signifying money
(M) invested to produce commodities (C) that sell for yet more money (M´). But the growth of "usury
capital" – government bond financing for war deficits, and consumer lending (mortgages, personal
loans and credit card debt) – consist of the disembodied M–M´, making money simply from money
in a sterile operation.
Footnotes
[1] In Volume III of Capital (ch. xxx; Chicago 1909: p. 461) and Volume III of Theories of
Surplus Value.
[2] Karl Marx, The Poverty of Philosophy [1847] (Moscow, Progress Publishers, n.d.): 155.
[3] Karl Marx, Theories of Surplus Value III: 468
[4] Capital III (Chicago, 1905), p. 713.
[5] See Irving Fisher, "The Debt-Deflation Theory of the Great Depression," Econometrica (1933),
p. 342. Online at http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/docs/meltzer/fisdeb33.pdf. He used the term to
refer to bankruptcies wiped out bank credit and spending power, and hence the ability of economies
to invest and hire new workers. I provide a technical discussion in Killing the Host (ISLET 2015),
chapter 11, and "Saving, Asset-Price Inflation and Debt Deflation," in The Bubble and Beyond,
ch. 11 (ISLET 2012), pp. 297-319.
[6] Capital III (Moscow: Foreign Languages Publishing House, 1958), p. 479.
Another good article by Rodrik but a weakness of his analysis is that welfare is assumed to be
based upon real income and not relative income with ones "group".
Most analyses of welfare find that relative income is quite important. Obviously if one assumes
that one's reference group is the world, then the problem goes away; but empirically this is not
the case.
Assuming that welfare is strongly affected by relative income with a group which is smaller
than the world, then global equality is no longer welfare maximizing.
"... And I am not sure that it was neoliberal globalization as the only factor in rasining the standards of living in case of China. They have also industrialization process going on, give or take. Chinese maquiladoras were allowed under strict conditions of transferring technology. That's what distinguishes China from India or Mexico, where neoliberal administrations were much less protective of interest of their nations and allowed Western monopolies more freedom. ..."
"... On the basis of careful empirical work, Rodrik concluded that "globalization makes it difficult to sustain the postwar social bargain" of labor peace in exchange for "steadily improving worker pay and benefits." ..."
"... It's not globalization, it's "neoliberal globalization" and neoliberalism in general which killed the New Deal capitalism. As soon as the US elite realized the cookies are not enough for everybody they start withdrawing them from the table. Stagnation and the subsequent collapse of the USSR also played an important role, allowing neoliberal propagandists to claim the victory. ..."
""seem unimpressed by the fact that globalization has lifted
hundreds of millions of desperately poor people in China and
India into the global middle class. ""
Ergo enabling the savaging
of working class people in the US was worth it.
And I am not sure that it was neoliberal globalization as the
only factor in rasining the standards of living in case of China. They have also industrialization process going on, give or
take. Chinese maquiladoras were allowed under strict conditions
of transferring technology. That's what distinguishes China from
India or Mexico, where neoliberal administrations were much less
protective of interest of their nations and allowed Western monopolies
more freedom.
After all the Communist Party is still a ruling Party of China.
With a neoliberal twist yes, but they still adhere to the ideas
of Marx.
Kuttner really captures the contributions of Dani Rodrik. If
I had to pick one sentence to capture this review - it would
be this:
On the basis of careful empirical work, Rodrik concluded
that "globalization makes it difficult to sustain the postwar
social bargain" of labor peace in exchange for "steadily
improving worker pay and benefits."
libezkova -> pgl...
, -1
It's not globalization, it's "neoliberal globalization" and neoliberalism
in general which killed the New Deal capitalism. As soon as the US elite realized the cookies are not enough
for everybody they start withdrawing them from the table.
Stagnation and the subsequent collapse of the USSR also played
an important role, allowing neoliberal propagandists to claim
the victory.
Nick Cohen makes a good
point
: it is not congenital liars that should worry us, but
congenital believers – those who fall for the lies of
charlatans. We know that many do so: almost half of voters
believed
the lie that leaving the EU would allow us to spend
an extra £350m a week on the NHS.
This poses the question: why do
people fall for lies? Here, we can learn from behavioural
economics and
research (pdf)
into criminal fraud. I reckon there are
several factors that liars exploit in politics.
One is wishful thinking. People
want to believe there's a simple solution to NHS underfunding
(leave the EU!) or to low wages (cut immigration!) just as they
want to believe they can get rich quick or make money by taking
no risk: Ponzi schemers like Bernie Madoff play upon that last
one. The wish is often the father to the belief.
Relatedly, perhaps, there are
lottery-type preferences. People like long-odds bets and pay too
much for them: this is why they back
longshots (pdf)
too
much
and pay over the odds for speculative
shares
. To such people, the fact that an offer seems too
good to be true is therefore, paradoxically, tempting. A study
of fraud by the OFT
found
:
Some people viewed responding
to a scam as taking a long-odds gamble: they recognised that
there was something wrong with the offer, but the size of the
possible prize or reward (relative to the initial outlay)
induced them to give it a try on the off-chance that it might
be genuine.
There's a particular type that is
especially likely to take a long-odds bet: the desperate. Lonely
people are vulnerable to the
romance
scam; gamblers who have lost take big bets to get even; losing
teams try "hail Mary" tactics. In like fashion, people who feel
like they have lost out in the era of globalization were
tempted
to vote for Trump and Brexit.
There's another mechanism here:
people are likely to turn to con-men if the alternatives have
failed. Werner Troesken
shows (pdf)
how snake-oil
sellers
exploited this. They invested a lot in advertising
and in product differentiation and so when other products failed
they could claim that theirs would work when the others hadn't.
I suspect that fund managers use a similar trick: the failure of
many to beat the market leads investors simply to trust others
rather than tracker funds. The fact that previous policies had
failed working people thus encouraged them to try something
different – be it Brexit or Trump.
Yet another trick here is the
affinity
fraud. We tend to trust people like ourselves, or who at least
who look like ourselves. Farage's endless posturing as a "man of
the people" – fag and pint in hand, not caring about "political
correctness" – laid the basis for people to trust him, just as
Bernie
Madoff
joined all the right clubs to
encourage
wealthy (often Jewish) folk to trust him. By contrast, the
claims from the Treasury and various think-tanks that Brexit
would make us poorer came from metropolitan elites who were so
different from poorer working class people that they weren't
trusted. And in fact the very talk of "liberal elites" carried
the subtext: "don't trust them: they're not like you".
All of these tendencies have been
reinforced by another – the fact that, as David Leiser and Zeev
Kril have
shown
, people are bad at making
connections
in economics. The idea that Brexit would hurt us
rested upon tricky connections: between the terms of Brexit and
trade rules; from trade rules to actual trade; and from trade to
productivity. By contrast, the idea that leaving the EU would
save us money was simple and easy to believe.
Now, I don't say all this merely
to be a Remoaner; complaining about liars is like a fish
complaining that the water is wet. Instead, I want to point out
that it is not sufficient to blame the BBC for not calling out
Brexiters' lies. Yes, the BBC
disgraced
itself during the plebiscite campaign. But we must
also understand how voters fall for such mendacity. As Akerlof
and Shiller write:
Voters are phishable in two
major ways. First, they are not fully informed; they are
information phools. Second, voters are also psychological
phools; for example, because they respond to appeals such as
lawnmower ads [a candidate seen mowing his own lawn is
regarded as a man of the people] (
Phishing
for Phools
, p 75)
All this raises a challenge for
liberals. Many used to believe the truth would win out over lies
in the marketplace for ideas. This is no longer true, if it ever
were. Instead, the questions now are: what can we do about this?
And what should we do? The two questions might well have
different answers. But we can make a start by understanding how
lies are sometimes believed.
Keith |
February 07, 2017 at 04:47 PM
The marketplace of ideas assumes that the consumers are able and
willing to inform themselves and be rational rather than
emotional. Clearly this is not true of a lot of voters when
confronted by a manipulative press and Tories like Jim with
their right wing agenda slyly hidden for the time being.
Equally as in other areas such as health care shopping around is
impossible to do as the consumers lack expert knowledge.
Allowing the profit motive to apply to many areas is sure to be
a disaster for human welfare as the profit incentive stops the
experts using their knowledge for good. Finance is a classic
example of the uninformed being repeatedly duped into unsound
investments decade after decade. Benjamin Graham describes how
in his first job selling Bonds to grannies he came to realise
that he was being asked to steal the life savings of pensioners
via commissions designed to get a sale of junk paper. Which is
why he moved elsewhere to a more ethical line of work. But I am
sure leaving the biggest most integrated market in the world
where lots of foreigners have helpfully learned our language
will surely increase our prosperity....Nigel says so.
There will always be gullible people (/ people constrained by
high opportunity cost of information search, as I prefer to
think of them)
And there will always be liars looking to take
advantage of them. Like 99% of politicians ever.
It's very Marxist to wonder how we might change this basic
fact of humanity, when the real solution is clear. Don't set up
powerful central institutions that rely on coercion: it attracts
liars, rewards them, and makes new liars out of honest people.
Oh, we Leavers are being lectured again by our Remainer betters
on our stupidity.
If the statements of the amount we pay to
the EU were lies, how come we owe them €50 billion?
how come no-one ever asks why we have to implement the four
freedoms when Germany gets a free pass on the Free market in
Services?
the government announced house building plans today, and
no-one asks whether a cause of high house prices and a housing
shortage is too much immigration?
It's not the lies, it's the questions never asked that stand
out.
I don't read Jim as a Tory. I read
him as someone who was a Labour supporter but now just stares in
amazement at a group of people who have become EU Federalist
fanatics spouting delusional slogans who can never answer a
straight question and refuse to acknowledge the obvious problems
of democratic accountability.
How on earth did that happen? How did apparently intelligent
people completely lose their critical faculties and join a
quasi-religious cult that chants empty slogans and denounces
anyone who questions them?
Chris missed out the fact that people tend to give others the
benefit of the doubt. I.e. if X tells a monster lie, peoples'
immediate reaction is: "X is is a bastard". But then on second
thoughts they feel ashamed at accusing someone else of being a
bastard, and assume it's they themselves that must be wrong.
There is a bit of a danger here of another comment thread being
derailed with Brexit mud-slinging. Chris's post isn't really
about the pros and cons of Brexit, it just offers a vivid
example of the phenomenon under discussion.
The point Chris makes in the last paragraph is more general
and profound. If any and all data/information/evidence/argument
is interpreted in partisan fashion and subject to massive
confirmation bias so that debates increasingly polarise - or if
different sides in debates proffer their own favoured but
incompatible versions of the truth - then meaningful dialogue,
deliberation and compromise become near impossible. All we get
is intolerance, mistrust and greater partisanship. Clearly these
are not entirely new issues, but it seems undeniable that there
has been a qualitative shift in 'quality' of public debate.
We appear to be witnessing the US political system at great
risk of imploding, as enlightenment values are abandoned and key
tenets of liberal democratic practice are wilfully rejected.
This is the route to chaos.
The questions Chris poses are, to my mind at least, the right
ones. The very nature of the problem means that the old/favoured
remedies are unlikely to be effective. But what can replace
them? Is a violent conflagration the only way of shocking the
system out of hyper-partisanship and the rejection of the
foundational belief that we live in a shared reality (i.e. for
people to 'come to their senses')? Or can we back out of this
particular cul-de-sac peacefully? You've got to hope so. But, if
so, how?
Our upper echelon, i.e. our long-standing middle of the road
Labour MPs and commentators, have long been successful in
fighting off calls for left leaning policy/talk of how things
work (because who knows where this will end) under a guise of
fighting off racism/ a closed shop mentality; the routes of
least resistance 50s – 00s which should alert us to the ability
of the English working class to embrace immigration and avoid
base philosophies. But it seems not. Seems to me our shared
interest beyond race creed colour and gender continues to be
deliberately and systematically no-platformed. What I fail to
understand, given the rise of UKIP, is why this is not glaringly
obvious; because if you're one of the majority who live life as
best you might with as much consideration and tolerance as you
can muster where does credence go when an ordinary workers
tendency to sound 'populist' is marked up to racism no matter
known history...
"Serious thinkers set to work, and produced a long shelf of
books answering this question. Their answers tended to rely on
similar themes. First, Democrats lose because they are too
intelligent. Their arguments are too complicated for American
voters. Second, Democrats lose because they are too tolerant.
They refuse to cater to racism and hatred. Finally, Democrats
lose because they are not good at the dark art of politics.
Republicans, though they are knuckle-dragging simpletons when it
comes to policy, are devilishly clever when it comes to
electioneering. They have brilliant political consultants like
Lee Atwater and Karl Rove, who frame issues so fiendishly, they
can fool the American people into voting against their own best
interests."
And immigration is about economics. This is Sweden an
immigration superpower.
"Swedish police last year issued a report where it detailed
incidents from more than 55 areas which it branded as "no-go
zones" as it detailed brutal attacks on police, sexual assaults,
children carrying weapons and general turmoil sweeping across
the country."
"A ban was supported by 71 per cent of people in Poland, 65
per cent in Austria, 53 per cent in Germany and 51 per cent in
Italy.
In the UK, 47 per cent supported a ban.
In no country did more than 32 per cent disagree with a ban."
"It thereby explains a paradox: why, at a
time when we are better off than ever before in history, all too
many of us are leading lives of quiet desperation."
Chris, a bit off the point, but if everyone followed your advice
and put money in tracker funds and active funds disappeared,
what would happen to the stock market ? Instinct tells me it
would become extremely volatile, but instinct is a bad guide...
It is not an extreme story, I don't speak Swedish
or have any contact with Sweden. I only read the main stream
media which includes the Daily Express.
As you would expect most of the media does not report on
Sweden, unless it has a British angle.
e.g. Birmingham Boy killed by a hand grenade.
(I don't know how you can spin Hand Grenade)
The report originates with the Swedish Police the situation
in Malmo is serious and individual police officers like Peter
Springare's Facebook post.
"After a wave of violence in Sweden's third city, police boss
Stefan Sintéus has appealed to residents in Malmö: "Help us.
Help us to tackle the problems. Cooperate with us.""
This isn't the first time facists have made
inflammatory comments about muslims. Nick Griffin did this and
was prosecuted for inciting racial hatred in 2006. The summary
of what he said is some way down this article.
And that, in a nutshell, is the problem with banning "fake
news". You have to be really open, transparent and clear and be
absolutely sure you are right, otherwise you end up making
heroes of facists and stoking the notion that its all a plot to
hide the truth from the people. And that is a really bad
outcome.
MPs wrestling with their consciences, loud debates, arguments
about the truth ... this is the sound of a properly functioning
parliamentary democracy and long may that noise continue.
Nick Cohen does make some good points but he himself has a
complicated relationship with the truth in some areas. When he
isn't talking about congenital liars and congenital believers,
he continues to get into a rage about people who opposed the
invasion of Iraq. As far as I can see, the invasion of Iraq has
been the disaster that some of us feared (because regime change
involves putting in place a new regime change, which is very
difficult and for which the USA and UK do not have the skills).
And, as far as I can see, some of the assumptions made by Nick
Cohen in 2002 and 2003 in supporting the invasion (such as the
ability of the Iraqi National Congress to create a new regime)
were very dubious and their weakness of these assumptions is why
the invasion was a failure and has had created an array of other
problems.
In his campaign to avoid a post-truth future, Nick Cohen
claims that people like him "are on their own" and he explicitly
rejects working with the kind of people who opposed the invasion
of Iraq. That's a pity, really, because many people appear to
have started their opposition to the invasion because the
information provided and the logic used appeared to be dodgy.
The period from August 2002 to March 2003 prefigured the
Trump/Brexit era for post-truth information and arguments. Nick
Cohen would be on stronger ground if he admitted that the
invasion of Iraq has not necessarily worked to anyone's
advantage.
I guess that what is going on in Nick Cohen's mind (and I can
only guess) is that he has built up a negative image of the type
of person who opposed the invasion of Iraq and he has difficulty
getting past that image and come to terms with what those people
were saying and what has actually happened in Iraq. Thus in
between writing articles about the need for truth, Nick Cohen
writes expressions of outrage about opponents of the invasion of
Iraq as if they had been found to be wrong.
It seems to be a very extreme example of seeing the messenger
and not the message, which is one of the issues with failing to
recognise lies.
OK, well I've worked most of my life with Swedes and Norwegians,
and have regularly visited Malmo three or four times a year
recently, although the last was a bit over a year ago.
So, yes, immigration is an issue, and the Sweden Democrats
(fascists) have been rising in the polls. Malmo itself has some
problems in the suburbs.
But there are no no-go areas. Armed violence has more
traditionally been associated with biker-gang turf-related drug
wars - otherwise with the far right (see Breivik in Norway) and
then, as your last link discusses, lone serial killers.
Reading anything the Sweden Democrats have to say is the
equivalent of believing Wilders in the Netherlands - they are
loons.
The currently established welfare criterion used in international trade theory results in
conclusions that are not only intellectually dishonest and deceptively misleading but are not as
value free as is commonly believed. Although academic economists have devoted much effort to
understanding the distributional effects of trade, the current welfare conclusions of trade
basically ignore entirely the distributional effects. This paper argues that trade policy needs
to be framed within a legitimate moral framework that moves distribution to the forefront. The
welfare effects of trade should be judged by what actually happens, not by what could potentially
happen in an idealized world with costless transfers.
In the first section the inadequacy of current international welfare economics is discussed.
Second, the justification for using a utilitarian framework is developed along with a brief
history of the doctrine and its role in Cambridge welfare economics. Next the properties of a
utility function that would be realistic as well as having desirable mathematical properties are
discussed. Welfare considerations would not be especially important if trade did not create
significant redistributions; therefore the size of the redistributions relative to the efficiency
gains from trade liberalization is examined. Finally, the welfare effects of trade liberalization
using various trade models and simulations are discussed.
The current approach to the welfare analysis of trade is to follow the recommendation of Hicks
and Kaldor and equate national welfare with real national income and ignore entirely how income
is distributed. Although admitting that considering distribution involves an unscientific
value judgment, numerous economists (such as I.M.D. Little, Frank Knight, Edward Chamberlin) have
concluded that distribution is too important to ignore and it is better to consider it even if
that makes the analysis less than scientific. As Blaug has stated (1978,p. 626), "the true
function of welfare economics is to invade the discipline of applied ethics rather than to avoid
it."
The basic objective of trade policy under modern welfare analysis therefore is to maximize
national income. This outcome is considered optimal because of the Hicks-Kaldor compensation
principle whereby everyone could potentially be made better off than in any other alternative
with the appropriate lump sum transfers. For some, the possibility that these transfers
could be made is sufficient, regardless of whether any transfers are actually made. For others,
there is a naive belief that after all the income maximizing policies are implemented, that the
government (or society) then consistently redistributes income in a manner consistent with its
specific social welfare function. However, Rodrik (1997, p.30) is correct when he states that in
regard to trade policy changes, "compensation rarely takes place in practice and never in full."
Even if society wanted to redistribute income, however, it can not be done in a zero costs lump sum fashion.
"... There are two major forces behind secular stagnation: ..."
"... 1. Neoliberalism which undermines the purchasing power of lower 80% of population due to redistribution of wealth up. Like in the "classic Marxism" theory of the absolute impoverishment of the working class under capitalism. ..."
"... 2. End of cheap oil, which undermines both productivity growth and, simultaneously, neoliberal globalization, which was the source of (fake) productivity growth in GDP statistics (which by itself is very suspect). ..."
Short-Run Effects of Lower Productivity Growth
: A Twist on the Secular Stagnation Hypothesis:
Despite interest rates being very close to zero, US GDP growth has been anemic in the last four
years largely due to lower optimism about the future, more specifically to downward revisions in
growth forecasts, rather than legacies of the past. Put simply, demand is temporarily weak
because people are adjusting to a less bright future.
Anne,
> Having read the paper again, the work still reads as
parody. I find no coherence.
I agree. Looks like
There are two major forces behind secular
stagnation:
1. Neoliberalism which undermines the purchasing
power of lower 80% of population due to redistribution of
wealth up. Like in the "classic Marxism" theory of the
absolute impoverishment of the working class under
capitalism.
2. End of cheap oil, which undermines both
productivity growth and, simultaneously, neoliberal
globalization, which was the source of (fake) productivity
growth in GDP statistics (which by itself is very
suspect).
"... By Les Leopold, the director of the Labor Institute, who is currently working with unions and community organizations to build the educational infrastructure for a new anti-Wall Street movement. His new book Runaway Inequality: An Activist's Guide to Economic Justice serves as a text for this campaign. All proceeds go to support these educational efforts. Originally published at Alternet ..."
"... Thin Reed? Authoritarian rule for the oligarchs ..."
"... Most manufacturing jobs are lost via automation, not outsourcing. ..."
Posted on
February 6, 2017
by
Yves Smith
Yves here. As reader John Z pointed out, the policy program described in this
post is very much in synch with the recommendations Lambert has been making.
One small point of divergence is that Leopold reinforces the idea that taxes
fund Federal spending. Taxes serve to create incentives, and since income
inequality is highly correlated with many bad social outcomes, including more
violence and shorter lifespans even for the rich, progressive taxation is key
to having a society function well. However, he does get right (as very few do)
that the purpose of a transaction tax is to discourage the activity being
taxed, rather than raise money (aside from the MMT issue, the tax would shrink
the level of transactions in question, making it not very productive in
apparent revenue terms).
By Les Leopold, the director of the
Labor Institute, who is currently working with unions and community
organizations to build the educational infrastructure for a new anti-Wall
Street movement. His new book Runaway Inequality: An Activist's Guide to
Economic Justice serves as a text for this campaign. All proceeds go to
support these educational efforts. Originally published at
Alternet
During the Bernie Sanders campaign I heard a high-level official
give a powerful speech blasting the Trans-Pacific Partnership Act for the harm
it would bring to workers, environmentalists and to all who cared about
protecting democracy.
Donald Trump now has signed an executive order pulling out of the
TPP negotiations.
Is this a victory or a defeat for the tens of thousands of
progressives who campaigned to kill the TPP?
On the same day Trump killed the TPP, he met with corporate
executives saying he would cut taxes and regulations to spur business
development. But
he
also warned
that "a company that wants to fire all of the people in the
United States and build some factories someplace else and think the product is
going to flow across the border, that is not going to happen." He said he
would use "a substantial border tax" to stop those practices.
Is this a victory or a defeat for workers and unions who for
three decades have been begging politicians to stop the outsourcing of decent
middle-class jobs?
Breaking the Spell of Neoliberalism
Our answers may be clouded by four decades of the neoliberal
catechism-tax cuts on the wealthy, Wall Street deregulation, privatization of
public services and "free" trade. Politicians, pundits and overpaid economists
long ago concluded that such policies will encourage a "better business
climate," which in turn will lead to all boats rising. Instead those very same
policies led to a massive financial crash, runaway inequality and a revolt
against neoliberalism which fueled both the Sanders and Trump insurgencies.
(See
enough
facts
to make you nauseous.)
This ideology is so pervasive that today no one is shocked or surprised to
see Democratic governors on TV ads trying to lure business to their states by
promising decades of tax holidays. No one gags when politicians lavish
enormous tax gifts on corporations-even hedge funds-in order to keep jobs
from
leaving
their states
.
Similarly, we have grown accustomed to the neoliberal notion that we should
go deeply into debt in order to gain access to higher education. Free higher
education, which was the norm in New York and California until the 1970s, was
"unrealistic" until Sanders rekindled the idea.
More troubling still, elites propagated the idea that public goods should
not be free and available to all via progressive taxation. Rather public goods
were denigrated and then offered up for privatization. Even civil rights icon
Representative John Lewis
used
the neoliberal framework
to attack Bernie Sanders' call for free higher
education and universal health care: "I think it's the wrong message to send
to any group. There's not anything free in America. We all have to pay for
something. Education is not free. Health care is not free. Food is not free.
Water is not free. I think it's very misleading to say to the American people,
we're going to give you something free."
Obama/Clinton Didn't, Trump did
Ironically, while Lewis is defending neoliberalism, Trump
actually is attacking two of its foundational elements-free trade and
unlimited capital mobility. Not only is Trump violating neoliberal theory, he
also is clashing with the most basic way Wall Street cannibalizes us. Without
the free movement of capital, assisted by trade deals, financial elites and
their corporate partners would not be able to slash labor costs, destroy
unions and siphon off wealth into their own pockets.
In particular, we should be extremely worried about how Trump is
approaching the loss of manufacturing jobs. The neoliberal fog should not
cause us to miss the obvious: presidents Obama and Clinton did absolutely
nothing to stop the hemorrhaging of middle-class manufacturing jobs to
low-wage countries. (U.S. manufacturing fell from 20.1 percent of all jobs in
1980 to only 8.8 percent by 2013.) Not only did Obama and Clinton fail to stop
even one factory from moving away, but they truly believed that capital
mobility and free trade were good for America and the world. In other words
they had sipped plenty of the neoliberal Kool-Aid.
Meanwhile, Trump is all in. He is saying that jobs in the U.S. are more
important than the long-run benefits of capital mobility and TPP/NAFTA
agreements. If he keeps bashing corporations for moving jobs abroad and if he
manages to ignite even a mini U.S. manufacturing jobs boom, Trump could be
with us for eight long years.
But What About the Poor in Other Countries?
To many progressives, saving American jobs sounds jingoistic and
"protectionism" is a bad word. Isn't global trade helping the poor become less
so around the world? Isn't it selfish only to protect American jobs? Isn't it
more moral to share scarce manufacturing jobs with the poor in Mexico and
Asia? After all, even if a plant closes in the Rust Belt, service sector jobs
can be found at wages that still are far higher than what the poor can hope
for in low-wage countries.
You can be sure corporations will be playing this tune if Trump tightens
the screws on capital mobility.
These arguments however have little to do with how the world actually
functions.
First, the big winners in the outsourcing game are the
corporations and their top Wall Street investors. (In fact Wall Street is
driving the process by endless pressure for
stock
buybacks
.) It's hard to make the case that the poor in Mexico have been
the beneficiaries of NAFTA.
Second, it is morally suspect to argue that someone else
should give up his or her standard of living so that the product made here
can be produced abroad by the same company and imported back into the U.S.
No worker can afford to donate his or her job to developing nations.
Third, outsourcing to low wage areas always involves
increasing health, safety and environmental hazards. In almost every case
production moves from more stringent standards to weaker standards. Plus,
the increased distances the products must travel mean there will be more
carbon emissions than if production remained here.
No, it's not possible to make a credible progressive case for outsourcing
your neighbor's job
What Do We Do?
The progressive instinct, and rightfully so, is to trash Trump.
If he's for it, we must be against it. When it comes to immigration, civil
rights, abortion, freedom of the press and many, many other issues, that's a
sound strategy.
But trashing Trump for saving jobs in the U.S. is suicidal.
In opposing Trump, we must not slip into defending neoliberalism. It's not
okay for corporations to pack up and leave. We should have some control over
our economic lives and not leave all the crucial decisions to Wall Street and
their corporate puppets. Trade deals are bad deals unless they enforce the
highest health, safety, environmental and labor standards. And those measures
must be enforceable by all the parties. The race to the bottom is real and
must stop.
In the U.S. We Should Be Mobilizing the Following Areas:
1. Organize the outsourced
: We should identify
and organize all those at risk from off-shoring. We need to make sure Trump
and Congress hear from these actual and potential victims. Trump needs to be
reminded each and every day that there are millions of jobs he must protect.
At the same time we should be rounding up support for the Sanders
bill
to stop off-shoring
.
2. Resist:
Trump has made it clear to corporate
America that in exchange for job creation in the U.S. he will cut their taxes
and regulations. We should demand that all tax "reforms" include a new
financial speculation tax (
Robin
Hood Tax
) on Wall Street to slow down their insatiable greed. Also, we
need to fight tooth and nail against any weakening of workplace health, safety
and environmental regulations. We have to destroy the Faustian bargain where
jobs are protected but the workers and the communities are poisoned.
3. Connect:
More than 3 million people protested
against Trump. But it is doubtful that dislocated workers and those facing
outsourcing were involved in these marches. That's because the progressive
movement has gotten too comfortable with issue silos that often exclude these
kinds of working-class issues. That has to change in a hurry. We need to reach
out to all workers in danger of off-shoring-blue and white collar alike.
4. Expand:
Many key issues-from having the
largest prison population in the world to having one the lowest life-spans-are
connected through
runaway
inequality
. Outsourcing is deeply connected to the driving force behind
runaway inequality-a rapacious Wall Street and its constant pressure for
higher returns. We need to broaden the outsourcing issue to include stock
buybacks and the other techniques used by Wall Street to strip-mine our jobs
and our communities. It's time for a broad-based common agenda that includes a
Robin Hood Tax on Wall Street, free higher education, Medicare for All, an end
to outsourcing, fair trade and a guaranteed job at a living wage for all those
willing and able.
5. Educate:
In order to build a sustained
progressive movement we will need to develop a systematic educational campaign
to counter neoliberal ideology. We need reading groups, study groups, formal
classes, conferences, articles and more to undermine this pernicious ideology.
Some of us are fortunate to be part of new train-the-trainer programs all over
the country. We need to expand them so that we can field thousands of
educators to carry this message.
Yes, all of this is very difficult, especially when it seems like
a madman is running the country. It is far easier to resist than to tear apart
neoliberalism. But we have to try. We need to recapture the job outsourcing
issue and rekindle the flames that ignited Occupy Wall Street and the Sanders
campaign.
Les Leopold explained some of his beliefs on the Smirking Chimp. I made a comment
to that article that I think should be repeated here ==>
At the moment, it's hopeless because we do not have a platform.
Most of the supposed liberals out there cannot defend welfare of any kind, cannot
defend Social Security and cannot defend most of what they supposedly stand for in
any kind of intelligent way.
There are circumstances where "welfare" is a moral necessity. There are also
circumstances where you tell the claimants to get a job. Sometimes you help them to
get that job.
It's necessary to be able to tell the difference and to be able to explain the
difference.
Too many supposed liberals do not understand how the labor movement became corrupt
enough that "right to work" looked good to people who were paying dues and getting
little back.
If you do not understand your own "liberal" beliefs, some uneducated red-state
buffoon will make you look like the bad guy
You not only need to understand your own beliefs, but you need to be able to
debate them with other wanna-be liberals until you have a platform that means
something.
Yep, everything Trump will do to bait Liberal "resistance," they will
eagerly fall for. It leaves a LOT of wiggle room for a movement to get between
DC's Kleptocrats and Trump's supposed constituency (victims? marks?) about to
lose their jobs, homes, equity, retirements & kids to imperialistic wars. If
there's a Left in this country, it simply HAS to be more than white kids on TV,
in black face masks we need to dodge Trump's trolling and fight unremittingly
FOR living wages, job safety, healthcare, upwards mobility & AGAINST a
predatory FIRE sector, ALEC kleptocracy & their media's 24/7 reality
infomercial. For way too long, the whole good cop/ bad cop scam has been Yuppie
liberals vs Oligarch's running dogs, we've tried to live off any chunks that'd
trickle down through the maelstrom above our heads, to which we were not
invited
Quite. No reason Sanders' platform can't be used. There's also a 5-point
platform right in plain sight at the end of Leopold's article.
Some people seem to have this urge to outsource the platform to somebody else -
the Democrat Party, or maybe others. No. No need to go elsewhere. There's two
platforms right here. Use them.
The problem is that economic systems are complex, emergent phenomena. They
influenced by culture, chance, ideas, tribal instincts, technology (including
financial technology), geography, tradition, the environment, human nature,
migration, religion, and on and on.
This notion that something as complex as human society can be analyzed under an
intellectual construct, whether neo-liberalism, socialism, or Rastafarianism
defies common sense. Centuries of intense theorizing by some very smart people
have led to an understanding of parts of social systems. But, for example,
economists disagree profoundly on basic aspects of macroeconomics.
Neo-liberalism is not even a well defined concept. I don't know of any
politician in the US who declare themselves "neo-liberal." Read the Wikipedia
article to see just how poorly this concept is defined.
Among some self-imagined progressives it's become a perjorative term to apply
to leaders who they disagree with. IMO, politicians do not govern according to
abstract concepts. The honest ones are simply trying to govern, in the context of
the society they live in. At times, historically unique situations arise, and
political leaders are stumped for solutions. At such a time, some kind of think
tank might propose their pet theory to be considered as a factor in making
decisions (the "neo-cons" had their chance in the build up to the Iraq war).
I want Trumps ability to wreak havoc on the economy and civil infrastructure
minimized, and him gone as President as soon as possible. This is not going to be
easy. If, at the same time, think you can throw in the reform of global economic
structures, and succeed, you're delusional.
FWIW, to the extent that policians like Chuck Shumer or Hilary Clinton are
influenced by neo-liberal ideas, it is at the level of ideas. People can change
their mind, or have it changed, on things like this. Quickly. In contrast to
something like pro-Zionist policies, to which a polician might have a deeper
attachment, very resistant to change.
The first two paragraphs are making a broad sort of argument, which if taken
with its full force seems to mean that any attempt to use theoretical
generalizations to understand the world is oversimplifying and therefore
questionable.
The third and fourth paragraphs take issue more specifically with the term
"neoliberalism."
However, the fifth paragraph seems to imply that anti-neoliberalism involves
"reform of global economic structures," and therefore maybe isn't as poorly
defined as the previous paragraphs would have led one to assume.
Meanwhile, the sixth paragraph undercuts the fifth. The fifth implies that
opposing Trump is so important that we should temporarily abandon any attempt
to move the discourse on the overall economic direction of the country or the
world. The reason given is that moving said discourse is supposed to be a
herculean, nearly impossible task. The sixth paragraph, instead, suggests that
Schumer and HRC can have their mind changed "quickly" on these sorts of issues,
and so maybe the overall project isn't so infeasible after all.
"FWIW, to the extent that policians like Chuck Shumer or Hilary Clinton
are influenced by neo-liberal ideas, it is at the level of ideas."
I'm skeptical about this. Chuck Schumer and Hillary Clinton are influenced
by neo-liberal ideas at the level of massive donations to their campaign
committees or family foundation.
If you just get Trump gone, another Trump or worse will be produced in a
decade or so (never mind Pence in the meantime, that we could endure, I'm
focusing longer term). An awful system, that makes everyone poor (mass
impoverishment), stupid, and exhausted, produces awful results in terms of
governance (money in politics does not help of course).
I always took neo-liberalism to mean world domination by banks FIRE sector
and neoconservatism by the military and their suppliers and also oil which
greases the military wheels. Farms fall into the latter I guess for the defense
of the "landed gentry". Watched the farm reports lately and they are quite
upset by the non-passage of the TPP which would have given them higher price
supports. All of it is ruled by multi-nationals' money and clout so there is
overlap.
Don't equate the giant corporate agri-biz sector – Monsanto, ADM, IBP, et
al – with small family farms. Factory farms might be for TPP. The small
family farm, the independent farmer, not so much.
adding: Wall St speculates in grain and farm/food commodities. Wall St
isn't happy with the demise of TTP. This from a few years back, but still
relevant.
" Futures markets traditionally included two kinds of players. On one
side were the farmers, the millers, and the warehousemen, market players
who have a real, physical stake in wheat .
"On the other side is the speculator. The speculator neither produces
nor consumes corn or soy or wheat, and wouldn't have a place to put the
20 tons of cereal he might buy at any given moment if ever it were
delivered. Speculators make money through traditional market behavior,
the arbitrage of buying low and selling high. And the physical
stakeholders in grain futures have as a general rule welcomed traditional
speculators to their market, for their endless stream of buy and sell
orders gives the market its liquidity and provides bona fide hedgers a
way to manage risk by allowing them to sell and buy just as they pleased.
"But Goldman's index perverted the symmetry of this system. The
structure of the GSCI paid no heed to the centuries-old buy-sell/sell-buy
patterns. This newfangled derivative product was "long only," which meant
the product was constructed to buy commodities, and only buy. At the
bottom of this "long-only" strategy lay an intent to transform an
investment in commodities (previously the purview of specialists) into
something that looked a great deal like an investment in a stock - the
kind of asset class wherein anyone could park their money and let it
accrue for decades (along the lines of General Electric or Apple). Once
the commodity market had been made to look more like the stock market,
bankers could expect new influxes of ready cash. But the long-only
strategy possessed a flaw, at least for those of us who eat. The GSCI did
not include a mechanism to sell or "short" a commodity. "
More neoliberalism in action. It doesn't benefit either the small
farmer or the person buying groceries.
I agree many people here get caught up in labels. I think there is value in
iconoclasm, but ultimately we have to take practical actions if we want to
avoid trouble. Or, at least, avoid the worst trouble.
Many who comment do not seem to take seriously the danger of right wing
fanaticism. I am not sure what would convince them.
You might be right. I certainly don't take right wing fanaticism
seriously. Moreover I don't think it should be taken seriously, and unless
things seriously changed recently, I live in a state that, statistically,
has a lot of right wing fanatics.
They're not organized, they don't have a message that truly appeals, they
don't have messengers with mass appeal, there's nothing there anyone can
build on. Moreover, anti-immigrant sentiment comes and goes. In the 1840's
we were having riots and people were beating Irishmen in the street because
the economy sucked. But when things don't suck so bad economically, that
evaporates like the morning fog.
Until right wing fanaticism can look like anything other than some angry
guy with too many tattoos shouting angry slogans, or some weird dude who
wants to actually create White America that srsly nobody listens to, y'know,
until there's some unifying figurehead who can take it further and make it
sensible-sounding and mainstream to the folks at home who work a 9-to-5,
it's not even worth worrying about. I'm more worried about left wing
extremists who show up in huge mobs and cause property damage, personally.
By that I mean, they want neoliberal econoimcs with a socially left wing
platform. No wonder they hate the left and supported Clinton so much. They want
the status quo. Many are safely in the upper middle class, as the comments on the
Women's March in Washington DC have revealed. They will never have to deal with
the consequences of neoliberalism.
The Sanders base by contrast wants left wing economics and socially.
The neoliberals don't even want left wing social identity progress. They
just use it as a tool to capture voters. Team Blue types did jack to advance
social issues until they were forced too or were simply bypassed. Obama's
"personal endorsement" of gay marriage was covered by his support of state
rights.
Is anyone all that safely in the middle class these days? Even if they have
a nice middle class job, so much that they don't have to worry about age
discrimination as they get older? I don't think so. So much that even if they
have a nice plum insurance plan at work, they never have to worry about
healthcare for themselves or their loved ones? I'm not so sure
But sure it's not as immediate a threat, doesn't have the immediacy of say
facing immediate eviction for the lack of a rent payment or something.
What appeals to me most is the recognition here (item 3.) of the same concern for
visa holders being locked out of entering the country needing to be shown to the
laboring class already in the country.
For those laborers, seeing a few hundred (or goodness gracious, a few thousand)
people protesting another production line being shipped off is better "messaging"
than anything our ruling class will ever manage to conceive.
Seriously, I can think of no better image than social justice warriors standing up
for workers desperate enough to vote Trump (or resigned enough to not vote at all).
There are potential friendships – or allyships if you prefer – to be created that
could do wonders for much beyond economic concerns.
This has been my position from the early days of the Tea Party movement when I
couldn't understand why the Democratic Party immediately sent organizers to help
them with both organization and more importantly consciousness-raising.
My problem is that I'm in a Red state. Democrats don't win elections here. I need
a political organization that can give me the best possible republican. This would
look like America first economics to protect American jobs (there is a huge appetite
for this among the Republican voters I talk to.) It would mean accepting conservative
social positions. The democratic party might be able to this but it would require one
hell of a make over.
It would, but it might be doable. A lot of the divide in American politics is
around "the culture wars." I think people can adopt new ideas, and ways of looking
at things, if they get that "tribal sanction."
This is just arm chair theorizing, but one of the big hang ups is that cultural
difference is interwoven with historical precedents that operated at a more
substantive, fundamental level in the society. For example, the theories of white
supremacy were used to justify the appalling institution of slavery in the US. At
that time, this enabled the dominant culture to benefit at the expense of the
exploited.
But when cultural conditions change, such that economic systems like slavery
are no longer operative, the ideas of white supremacy can live on as simply
cultural identity.
For all the problems of our society, we have made progress, and the overt,
legal racism that existed just 50 years ago has been minimized. So perhaps people
interested in social justice can relax the hyper-vigilant, hyper-accusatory
attitudes of political correctness, to make common cause with populations they
have common interests with.
When social justice activists use the label of "racist" as a badge of shame on
someone who transgresses whatever social line, it tends to cause hurt feelings.
And accusations of reverse racism. Sigh. It could be different.
The Kulture Wars were specifically designed to put economic and Class issues
on the back burner, Divide and Rule. What is the point of Lady Gaga waving her
pussy in our faces at the super bowl, but to drive the socially conservative
working class into the Republican party. Frankly the issue of who sleeps with
who, who marries who and who has a baby, is done , covered by the assertion of
privacy protection by the constitution. In any case, economic justice should
take precedence. Time to move on from socially divisive issues.
Love your line about Lady Gaga. It is as if the powers that be understand
completely the "backfire effect" and deploy it consciously to their
advantage.
I completely disagree. While party organizations in red states may have little
impact on those elected from their state, a hostile takeover of a state party can
have real impact in terms of control of the national organization.
Democratic Parties in red states especially are interested in keeping their
invitations to Inaugural balls and holding Jefferson-Jackson (one would think
these would have been renamed by now given how totes woke Team Blue types are,
sarc) dinners. Who knows what could happen if they cared about results?
I disagree. "Good Democrats" can win. People respect people who fight for their
values or seem to fight for those values more than say a Hillary. The messaging of
Hillary as a defender for women and children wasn't an accident.
The problem for the "deplorables" in regards to Team Blue is the neo liberals
treat their concerns with contempt and have a recent history of betrayal.
It might take a while, but Virginia's fifth congressional district is the
largest district by area east of the Mississippi. It's bigger than New Jersey and
a relatively good Democrat (probably not the most pro choice person) won in 2008
against a Republican who won by huge numbers every years. That win didn't start in
early 2008. It started in 2001 with a couple of sacrificial lambs to build
operations to register voters, making sure the blue precpincts were registered and
to go into the precincts that should be blue believed they can win.
I believe people will make good choices when presented with options, but
putting up a non entity with cash who bemoans partisanship especially those "tax
and spend liberals" is why Democrats fail. How did Alan Grayson get into Congress
despite running in a district that went for Bush/Cheney twice while an adjacent
district that went for Gore and Kerry keeps sending Republicans to Congress? The
answer is people respect when they aren't being pondered too, and that is all
Clinton Inc knows how to do.
Entirely home grown for all intents and purposes. Lynchburg produced a
fair amount of volunteers and money despite not being in the actual
district.
Dean's 50th the strategy didn't come from no where. The Internet existed
before Facebook, and people have long memories of Democrats that did
organization before 1994 (gee, I wonder who was in charge of Team Blue) and
the destruction of the then permanent Democratic majority. People discussed
this all over. Admittedly, I didn't entirely buy it until Kaine thumped a
well liked Republican in 2005 running up the vote tally in areas where
people had been organizing.
There is a reason why Clinton Inc is despised by otherwise seemingly,
sensible Democratic types. The Clintons under perform because they run
childish goldilocks campaigns. In 1992, Bill mustered 43% of the vote
against 41 and a guy who basically wanted to bring back prohibition.
Thanks for bringIng up Dr. Dean's 50 state strategy. What the heck
happened to that? I'm convinced that the strategy was a good part of
Obama's victory in 2008. In Kansas, the Dems took a seat from the
Republicans that year, and won Indiana and North Carolina. Lost Missouri
by only 4000 votes. We could compete in these states and others (Arizona,
Texas, Georgia) if the state Democratic parties would arouse themselves
and do a bit of listening to people in their state.
Not sure study groups are the answer. Couldn't hurt, I suppose.
The article makes it sound like there was nothing but a clash of ideas for 40
years.
Out of the 70's there was a lot of racism and resentment at the stagflation that
got channeled into Reagan. The right wing think tanks started an Amen chorus,
abortion wars reached a fever pitch, and Dems started scrambling to try to win
elections that they used to win on a FDR platform.
Then came the bubble of the 90s, and Wall Street Dems looked like geniuses.
A lot of people were drinking the Koolaid. Not just sold out Dem pols.
New day now. Lessons have been learned. Unfortunately, many people have learned
the wrong lessons, nodding to the siren call of fanatical nationalism and Trump.
I am not sure what plan the proprietors of this blog favor, but I hope it includes
the Dem party because that thin reed is the only thing between us and authoritarian
rule for the billionaires.
The Dems are the very embodiment of neoliberalism, representatives of oligarchs
and soft sellers of authoritarian rule. Far far on the wrong side of the thin
reed.
As the post mentioned – Largest imprisoned, in the world. Lowest life
expectancy, for highest expenditures.Allowing millions to be foreclosed upon while
further enriching the banksters who rigged the system. That's authoritarian in an
extreme and only a few oligarchs benefit. Neoliberalism/Liberalism is
authoritarian. Dems are the first to shoot down those who challenge them with so
much as polite rhetoric. Feckless as Sanders was he clarified that for anyone who
dare look-see, admit it to themselves.
If Dems were the only party in existence we would be where we are today, if not
far worse. Just the way they structure and operate their party is more than enough
to prove these points.
Love the post title but I would wear a t-shirt which say either of these
things:
Who said prefer? The thing with siding with the Democrats in opposing
Trump is that in four or eight years we're left with nothing but siding with
somebody else in opposing the Democrats. How about getting something done,
finally? Crazy dream: make the Democrats side with us in opposing Trump.
Naked Capitalism is both a reading and study group hey here's a thought, why
don't the dems try to include usians, we're not democrats we're americans, after
all, and we don't need them if they're going to continue to play the game as they
have been playing it, supporting authoritarianism and heaping favors on
billionaires. I don't see lessons having been learned, none of the hillary
marchers I know can have a cogent , fact based conversation, it's just omg trump,
marching is good, globalization o care what will the poor illegal immgrants do,
cheap labor is essential, self driving trucks blah blah blah bail out wall st
while fraudulent MERS documents are fabricated to steal peoples homes, remember
linda green, remember non dischargeable student loans? Have you noticed all those
tents under the bridges? The dems ruled for the 10% but it's a big country and a
numbers game. You need to get out more. If the dems wanted to win bernie was the
ticket. Instead they chose wall st and war then lost like they deserved to lose.
In a representative democracy they are supposed to represent us, we're not
supposed to represent the dems. They'll be included when they deserve to be, no
one owes them allegiance.
"And at this point in time (where we are now) that means organizing
through the Dems, through the Repubs, or some third party."
Sometimes I figure it may as well be the Repubs (but not of course with
their current platform, yea I know people think the Dems is an easier party
to take over, but due to LOTE voting I'm not so sure.
Maybe you can tell me which is better? Cory Booker voted to prevent
importation of Canadian drugs to lower the outrageous rx costs. Ted Cruz
voted to import drugs so that we are not held hostage to US companies
raising drug costs with impunity. Unless the dems are benefiting citizens
why should we support them. Bernie's bill would have passed except for 14
dem senators voted to keep drug costs high . Who should we vote for in the
next election?
I hope I am not posting too late. Please delete this if you think I am.
Booker is a phony. Cruz is a creep. Not much to cheer for in either
case.
I am not suggesting that you owe allegiance to any candidate or party.
I am suggesting that party politics is an avenue for organizing, and
Dem party and traditional coalition is the better avenue for action. Not
to do the same things, but to work for peace justice and tolerance.
Where to target work for change.
The Repubs are not what some people here imagine. And they will do
great harm.
"That thin reed is the only thing between us and authoritarian rule for the
billionaires."
No, that "thin reed" would have continued to obfuscate the existence of
authoritarian rule
for
the billionaires through cynical, insincere
manipulation of
idpol
wedge issues.
The regime change we are witnessing, here in the U.S., is the cutting out of a
layer of cynical, professional grifters between the kleptocrats and the people. In
other words authoritarian rule
for
the billionaires is morphing into
direct, in-your-face kleptocracy
by and for
the billionaires.
There was an important discussion earlier, here at NC, that I think is relevant to
our current situation, sparked by Kalecki's observation that:
"One of the important functions of fascism, as typified by the Nazi system, was
to remove capitalist objections to full employment."
It is understandable that American workers would find a genuine commitment to full
employment, after so many decades of neoliberal job outsourcing, exhilarating.
Yet, smashing unions and "othering" large segments of the population didn't end
well for the Germans in the mid-20th century, and there's no reason to believe it
would work out any better over here.
Maybe that was a significant aspect of the rise of Nazi rule, but it seems to
me a bit reductionist to see the Nazis through such a narrow lense.
Similarly, I think we should resist the temptation of seeing Trump exclusively
through the lenses of our anger at Bluedogs for getting us into this mess. I am
angry. And those soulless climbers are still running the show in Congress. I am
angry about that too.
But these are dangerous times. We need to organize. We need to win elections.
And we do not have ANY easy path that I can see.
In my view, we need to channel our energy into primary challenges in the Dem
party.
The US Democratic Party has more than a little in common with the British
Labour Party sadly.
I wouldn't pin your hopes on their resolve to stand up for the average
working voter in the face of big money interests.
Both parties have steadily rendered themselves irrelevant to their erstwhile
core voters through a toxic combination of venality, hubris, contempt,
obsessive virtue signalling/ political correctness, vacuous ideologies, a
reliance on endless empty rhetoric, populism, 'foreign misadventure' and much
more besides.
Their currency, in the eyes of swathes of once loyal voters, has been so
devalued under the leaderships of flag of convenience crypto-neoliberal
politicians like Blair, Brown, the Clintons and Obama that this is going to be
a Herculean task to row back from in order to recentre and reconnect with
betrayed, bruised voters.
Trump might be a crass out and out shameless, populist, self-serving
sociopathic assh#le, but unlike those mentioned above, in the eyes of many of
those disenfranchised who backed him, some most likely out of desperation, at
least he's currently less of a lying hypocrite and, more importantly, he hasn't
let them down badly yet.
"Both parties have steadily rendered themselves irrelevant to their
erstwhile core voters through a toxic combination of venality, hubris,
contempt, obsessive virtue signalling/ political correctness, vacuous
ideologies, a reliance on endless empty rhetoric, populism, 'foreign
misadventure' and much more besides."
This is not quite right "Trade deals are bad deals unless they enforce the highest
health, safety, environmental and labor standards."
Labor in the underdeveloped countries consider some of this to be the developed
countries' trick of preventing the people in the underdeveloped countries from
getting jobs. There is some truth to this idea. When we negotiate trade deals, we
must remember that in a fair negotiation neither side gets everything it wants, but
each side must get enough of what it wants to agree to the terms of the negotiation.
The trouble with past trade pacts is that only the corporations on both sides of
the deal were represented. In the future, labor and environment on both sides must be
represented in the negotiations.
not quite right, the stateless multinationals play both sides off each other.
Globalzation deals like TPP with ISDS clauses are designed to limit sovereignty.
We have free trade, you can go anywhere in the world and buy whatever you want to,
your "fair negotiation" is a canard and misdirection.
One may also refer to USA communities who will accept higher levels of
pollution caused by an EPA targeted local industry/plant that provides local jobs
where they are in short supply..
This is very similar to a foreign country accepting higher pollution in trade
for jobs for their citizens.
When someone is desperate to support their family, compromises are made, and
the USA has plenty of examples.
That's kind of representative of the basic problem: before the white working
class morphed into The Middle Class during Reagan's Miracle, they'd long since
abandoned hell with the lid off, for suburbia (the nation's economy was based
upon this; unions, political parties, finance all fed off of upward mobility,
basically away from the poor, polluted, neglected, heavily policed industrial
areas (bottom feeders like Trump's dad or DNC's slumlord super-delegates hardly
invented this). EZ Credit, Bail Bonds, Party Stores, doc-in-a-box, PayCheck
Loans sucked-up what the politicians' business associates left behind. As Trump
moves on from trolling liberal elites to fomenting race war, mass
incarceration, etc, as LBJ, Nixon, Reagan & Clinton did with urban renewal, the
war on drugs, welfare reform some of us will scrambling to figure out just how
we're not just another part of the problem?
A contemporary version of that Sinclair quote could be stated as such :
"When Neo-fascism comes to America, it will be wrapped in a Lady Gaga
p#ssy-gown and carrying a case of birth-control pills . while screaming
'White, Deplorable, F#cker' !!"
Offshore tax sheltered wealth in the trillions must be reigned in, but nobody in a
position of leadership is allowed to touch it, only to make token noises about it
like Sen. Warren does.
It appears that Leopold misses another issue that hits American workers, that
being the "insourcing" of foreign workers, either legally (H1-B's) or illegally to
the USA.
American workers are certainly aware that some jobs can be outsourced via
computer/phone networks to other countries, but are also aware that neo-libs have
been more than willing to also let jobs that require a physical presence in the USA
be wage arbitraged down via increasing the domestic labor supply via immigration.
I don't believe the old assertion that "an immigrant displacing an American worker
frees the American to find a better job" gathers much support from American
workers/voters, if it ever did.
Trump tapped into this, and the Democrats will ignore this issue at their peril..
Neither political party wants to enforce employer sanctions, via mandatory
E-Verify, as that would be frowned on by both party's paymasters.
"Trump actually is attacking two of its foundational elements-free trade and
unlimited capital mobility. Not only is Trump violating neoliberal theory, he also is
clashing with the most basic way Wall Street cannibalizes us. Without the free
movement of capital, assisted by trade deals, financial elites and their corporate
partners would not be able to slash labor costs, destroy unions and siphon off wealth
into their own pockets."
Given the ease with which Trump reverses himself, I wouldn't take these utterances
seriously.
At the same time we should be rounding up support for the Sanders bill to stop
off-shoring.
I couldn't find "Outsourcing Prevention Act" at Congress.gov. It is possible that
the bill hasn't been introduced yet? Or maybe it has another name? I found these
possibilities:
Good article but needs an addendum: don't side with
Democrats
in opposing
Trump. There's a case to be made that Trump himself is really an independent even
though he has by necessity stuffed his administration with some GOP trogs. Therefore
when Trump does something our side likes he should be praised even though it might
diminish the chances of the dearly sought Trumpexit. The US public at large
increasingly see themselves as independents rather than supporters of the duopoly and
the left–including and perhaps especially Sanders–should stop fooling themselves that
they will ever reform the Dems. In fact the thing that might do the most to reform
the Dems would be some vibrant third party competition that forces them to protect
their left flank.
But we have enough time to hope the Democratic Party who is completely
subservient to corporate interests will suddenly decide to forget about all the
money they are making and side with the workers, poor, and the environment?
Voting in all new people would take many years, not to mention the party
structure that cannot be changed by voting. The majority of registered
democrats support neo-liberal candidates. How do you propose this quick change
of the democratic party to support traditional leftist policy will take place?
Note to self: I will not be bamboozled into self-destructive political adventurism
by mindlessly opposing the perfectly legitimate President Trump when ever he happens
to do something so swell that helps pay the rent, buys food and keeps a roof over my
head. I will stop going to ALL of those protest marches that demands that rowhouse
Philadelphia give up their jobs in reparations for neo-colonial and hegemonic
neo-liberal bad stuff by sending them to Mexico and the Dominican Republic or even
Viet Nam or China. I understand that people in America are people too, and need their
jobs and do not have trust funds to live off of when they donate their employment
with no hope for a replacement job to prevent a downward spiral into poverty.
I get it, by not focusing on real pocket book issues and major social programs,
like the ones we used to get in the afterglow of post WWII economic expansion, we
just left the barn door open for all of the wronged white guys in coal mines, all
57,000 of them nationally, to come out in the full force of democracy in action under
our definition of democracy, the electoral college. By not recognizing that the iron
law of democracy, where the consent of the majority of people is the deciding
principle in American politics, and marching after a political loss instead of going
out in front of the coal mines and factories and laying down in front of the trucks
hauling jobs away, I am a dope. I promise to fete The President Trump in editorial
pages, blog sites, graffitti on walls and other public property when he creates jobs
as a result, direct or indirect, of his policies. After all, it is axiomatic that if
Trump repeatedly fails to do anything of value for our nation, most of us will
suffer. If he puts forth an infrastructure financial package with the Japanese and
their global investment bank, I will hail as a partnership in progress.
After all, if we can fix up the country's faltering highways and bridges and air
ports and sea ports, we will modernized America, give people good paying jobs. And
that is a good thing. I am all for it. President Trump is supposed to be all for it.
So, when the jobs start pouring in with all of the concrete and rebar, I will not
protest. I will publicly applaud him. I will however be organizing behind the scenes
to crush him like a bug in the next election. I foresee a bidding war in jobs offered
to the forgotten and not so forgotten and I expect to come out on top as the highest
bidder.
Les Leopold is a smart guy and always has interesting things to say. But in this
case, I think he glosses over the biggest issue: people will not organize into unions
if they believe that doing so, or trying to do so, risks making their personal
employment situation worse, not better.
Anti-union activity by employers is now so routine and expected, and protections
for workers trying to organize, either from unions or government, are so weak that
the vast majority of working people have come to view trying to organize as insane.
(Yes, card check will help in a few situations but is not a game changer.) The
purported low unemployment rate does nothing to empower working people because
(except for the occasional exception that proves the rule) it is still overwhelming
the case that one's current job is better than any likely other job one would have to
get if one lost it. And irritating your boss is still the likeliest way to get fired,
or get your department outsourced, or get your entire workplace shut down.
And the fact that some public sector workers still have workplaces that make them
less likely to get fired or replaced for trying to exercise workplace "rights" just
points out how poor things are for most private sector workers, resulting in even
less sympathy for those workers.
What Trump gets is that, in this environment, most working people will support the
(anti-tax, anti-regulation) platform their boss supports, rather than the
(higher-tax, stronger-regulation) one their boss hates, if the (strong union)
platform that is good for them that their boss really, really hates is off the table.
Platforms and study groups are well and good but we need much more. As said above,
we need a new labor movement, in particular one that can organize in the private
export-sensitive sector. There is no such thing as a(n even moderately) successful
labor movement without strong unions in the private export-sensitive sector. But
there is no way to organize workers in this sector without being able to demonstrate
why being in a union is likely to materially improve their well-being. But one can't
get such a thing without strong government support to ensure trying to organize
doesn't in fact risk resulting in losing your job. Chicken-And-Egg problem.
Employers have so much power over workers now: right-to -work laws, tax
incentives, H1B and undocumented workers, Chamber of Commerce and lobbyists.
Probably the only way to have any clout would be to have a National Strike and
boycotts which would be tough to organize. I know that employers in an area will
collude with other companies to set and limit wages and benefits. I had a friend
that I worked with in a factory back in the 70s who was promoted to the office in
a secretarial position who told me about meetings our company had with other ones
in the community where they discussed and made agreements on labor issues. This
was back in the 70s. They were always threatening us about unions and I never had
heard anyone talk about joining one or any kind of union activity.
As regards the standard of living in third-world countries, it should by now be
apparent that the model of 'development' that uses low wages to attract foreign
businesses simply can not – and does not – increase general prosperity. How can it?
The model is that low wages ('affordable labor costs') are the engine, therefore the
wages need to stay low to keep the multinationals in place.
Look at the effects of NAFTA: the United States lost a lot of jobs, Mexico gained
jobs, but Mexican wages remain low. The NAFTA model is pulling the United States down
and not pulling Mexico up. That is now well established. Nobody need feel any guilt
about opposing trade agreements like NAFTA.
Ah, but what about China? Well China is a little different from Mexico – they are
more mercantilist. In the long run the established method of creating prosperity is
to have a stable or slowly growing population, and slowly but steadily build up
endogenous industries and a strong internal market. "Race to the bottom" trade
agreements yield exactly what the term suggests.
Where do I sign up? I'm ready to go. However, I think one aspect of this
transformational mission is missing: MONEY.
The RW has metric tons of billionaires who use their money to propagate their
ideologies and build "think tanks" and other institutions to provide the veneer of
respectability. I believe it's one of the primary reasons that they've been so
successful in pushing their extreme ideas on everybody. They have an ALEC branch in
every statehouse writing laws, which I'm sure they don't do for free. They can
gerrymander, buy off, and otherwise distort the entire process for little more than
walking around money for them.
I know Sanders nearly won with small donors, so perhaps that could be replicated
in this scenario, but long term, I think having some serious money to back up these
initiatives is going to make the job actually doable. And there are a few actual
billionaires who might be amenable to using their wealth for the greater good. Nick
Hanauer comes to mind.
The Antigonish Movement blended adult education, co-operatives, microfinance
and rural community development to help small, resource-based communities around
Canada's Maritimes improve their economic and social circumstances. A group of
priests and educators, including Father Jimmy Tompkins, Father Moses Coady, Rev.
Hugh MacPherson and A.B. MacDonald led this movement from a base at the Extension
Department at St. Francis Xavier University (St. F.X.) in Antigonish, Nova Scotia.
The credit union systems of Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and PEI owe their
origins to the Antigonish Movement, which also had an important influence on other
provincial systems across Canada. The Coady International Institute at St. F.X.
has been instrumental in developing credit unions and in asset-based community
development initiatives in developing countries ever since.
It is noteworthy that the movement began with Adult Education: if people do not
understand what has brought them debt and poverty, it will be difficult to counteract
them.
I'm sure that in the US during the Depression, there were many such movements
which helped people understand and defeat the Depression.
Looking back at what succeeded in the past can help towards a better future. Of
course, it will have to be adapted for the present problems, but starting with
education is a really positive move.
How about online adult education drawing on the talents of charismatic teachers
and more local face-to-face seminars to provide the core activists we need.
Good article which made some good points.
"The progressive instinct, and rightfully so, is to trash Trump. If he's for it, we
must be against it."
One instance of this is the huge play the immigration fight is getting. I don't agree
with how Trump enacted his immigration "reform" but I agree that immigration needs to
be curtailed. Significantly curtailed. H1B visas pretty much need to be done away
with, and if you are in this country illegally, you need to leave. And any further
immigration needs to be reduced. This outcry against immigration reform by the
liberals, what many in this country see as a huge problem, is not winning over any
hearts and minds in flyover country. It's like when Bill Clinton first got elected
and he wasted a lot of time and political capital on the gays i the military issue.
Only this time the Dems are not even in office. Still a waste of political capital.
In my mind this whole immigration reform paranoia is just another form of identity
politics by the Democrats. What progressives need to focus on is campaign finance
reform, jobs, health care reform, education, and increasing taxes on the wealthy and
corporations. Those issues resonate with everyone, Republicans and Democrats alike.
It is why Trump won. Don't fix these problems and immigration will be the least of
our worries as a nation. If things get worse in our economy, immigrants and refugees
are going to be in a much worse place than they are right now. People who are going
hungry and who are sick with no hope on the horizon have to blame someone. And
Americans are not known for the high level of intelligence and knowledge of how the
world really works. Anyone who looks "different" will be blamed and there will be
blood in the streets. I think we are almost to that point now.
"This outcry against immigration reform by the liberals, what many in this
country see as a huge problem, is not winning over any hearts and minds in flyover
country. It's like when Bill Clinton first got elected and he wasted a lot of time
and political capital on the gays i the military issue. Only this time the Dems
are not even in office. Still a waste of political capital. In my mind this whole
immigration reform paranoia is just another form of identity politics by the
Democrats."
The Dims maybe, but that's not why actual people protest, it's mostly because
they know illegals are those who serve their food when they order breakfast, are
on the train on the way to work, etc.. I know fly-over just doesn't get it,
because they don't live among and with illegals as part of their daily life, but
it's hard to see them driven out if one does.
All the points made in answer to that need to be memorized, because if you're to
the left of Andrew Carnegie or Ayn Rand that's what they'll throw at you. 'Americans
consume 99% of all fossil fuels and create 98% of all the trash and blah blah!' We're
a little sick of it.
"Americans consume 99% of all fossil fuels and create 98% of all the trash and
blah blah!' We're a little sick of it."
It's all true of course.
But yea they rely on left/liberals basic goodness (ok not all liberals have any
real goodness (or why don't they oppose the wars more?), most leftists are pretty
darn moral though) and they'll use it to enrich themselves, because they are not
good at all, but know how to get good people to be subserviant to their own
selfish ends.
Most manufacturing jobs are lost via automation, not outsourcing. What do we plan
to do about that?
The cheaper the capital (e.g., low interest rates), the easier it is to substitute
capital for labor. Whenever the Fed bails out a bubble via monetization, labor takes
another hit.
Solar's more cost-effective and adding more jobs now than the fossil fuel industry
– yet official policy now seems hell-bent on ginning up another oil reserve lending
bubble.
Wade is correct. I've posted a chart of the BLS statistics on long term
manufacturing employment in absolute and relative terms on this site.
Manufacturing employment's relative share of total employment has fallen in a
straight and steady diagonal line from upper right to lower left from its peak
in the 1950's to the present. Began long before off-shoring was a thing, and
off-shoring doesn't even clearly show as an independent variable. Otherwise
we'd see a significant bend in the curve. Instead, significant deviations are
conjunctural, connected to recessions.
The BLS charts can be easily researched by anybody on this site. I don't
want to hear conspiracy theories about how BLS has politically rigged the stats
for 60 years as lazy substitute for critical approaches to BLS statistical
methods. If you want to refute the evidence, that's what is required.
It fails to assess the real weight of off-shoring vs automation because
Smith doesn't base his analysis on the effects of automation, and then move to
assess the effects of off-shoring. Therefore Smith can never present a clear
quantification of the effects of off-shoring on employment in a metropolitan
country like the US.
At root Smith's limitations are found in his Andre G. Frank "development of
underdevelopment" bias. This cannot conceive of under- or uneven- development
in an "already developed" country like the US. But that is precisely, palpably,
what has happened. And it is inevitable under capitalist automation once it
reaches a tipping point. As I believe it has, where only some 25% of the total
available labor force is required to produce everything we (very wastefully)
consume now, today.
As an aside, note that off-shoring is not to include products never produced
in the US in the first place, like most of Apples' iProducts. You can't
"off-shore" jobs you never worked at, now can you! This represents a different
process, the export of *new* capital investment, in this case in a contract
relation with Chinese SEZ capitalists, not the transfer of *existing*
productive investment overseas. But Smith includes iProducts in his
"off-shoring" mix.
The Smith example shows this is a matter of the basic facts about
capitalism, not about left or right politics. That is exactly why people
gravitate towards off-shoring as a prime-mover in job loss, precisely because
something politically can be done about that. Yet if you somehow forced all US
corporations to 100% invest production in the US, you will only greatly
accelerate the trend of job loss due to automation, as it will be the only
lever they have left. Unless you want to halt all human progress in the
productivity that has already freed up 75% of our labor time to do something
other than maintain the current standard of living.
The real political problem we need to confront is that, despite these real
productivity gains, capitalism requires that the whole mob of proles be
continuously prodded onto the wage labor market, whether their labor is
necessary or not. That's the fundamental program of the Congressional snakepit
and its Statehouse auxiliaries. The wage labor social relation is the source of
the social power of capitalists, and without it they and their system go Poof.
A good reform proposal would be: a guaranteed *medium* income for all (or
alternatively, a guaranteed "job" for all at the same income or greater); a
system for equitably circulating the total potential labor pool in and out of
the pool of necessary labor. It will require a revolution to achieve such a
reform.
@Brad
"As an aside, note that off-shoring is not to include products never
produced in the US in the first place, like most of Apples' iProducts. You
can't "off-shore" jobs you never worked at, now can you! This represents a
different process, the export of *new* capital investment, in this case in a
contract relation with Chinese SEZ capitalists, not the transfer of
*existing* productive investment overseas. But Smith includes iProducts in
his "off-shoring" mix."
Doesn't seem like a different process to those needing work to survive.
This is why "economists" are being ridiculed and derided among large swathes
of the populace. Distinctions without differences which only serve to fit
data into precious formulae, based on preconceived ideals. If I develop a
new product in the US, and seek only China manufacture (to save myself the
labor cost, and evade the external costs of environment, etc.) the result is
the same. "New capital investment " is just a matter of timing. Lucky me, I
didn't have to go thru the expense of tearing down an existing facility, or
relationship, here first.
This seems to me one of the more incisive of the comments. So many are
coming at it from the framework of what solutions best get us back to a
situation that was better, like one we experienced between the 1950s to the
turn of the century. This was a unique period of advantage for the US
economically and industry-wise that is unlikely to be repeated, imo, and for
awhile seemed to have more easy opportunities for all.
The progressive platform recognizes how the pillars providing for more
equality of opportunity have been battered, and I agree with some of its
proposals. But just reversing the tax burden shifts and trying to reinstate
more affordable healthcare or education still leaves us with the situation
where the need for and nature of work may still be changing radically. I
have trouble seeing how a conservative half of the country with extremely
powerful propaganda outlets, interest groups, and fountains of money will
allow some if any of the ideas proposed in this article (hence Brad's claim
that it would require a revolution sways me a good deal).
I also do not think that Bernie, basically not subjected to any big
negative hits in the primary, would have won the general after the right's
smear machine was done with him. Even then, the republican congress would
have stopped cold any of his more significant proposals.
Progressives need to get realistic. This agenda will be slow in coming,
unless things get so horrible that a true revolution does occur. What that
would entail I do not know, but powerful forces are aligned against it. All
who spend time theorizing (including me) on keyboards will have to start and
sustain the very hard work of getting into the trenches, spreading and
fighting for ideas, and most of all, actually winning primaries and
elections and helping to get people out to vote. The right wing started
doing this methodically over 45 years ago, with patience and persistence.
Trump/RW domination needs to be stopped asap, by whatever plausible if
less than ideal tools we have. Protests are getting attention, and I hope
more participation and results will come next. Purity tests of progressive
ideals is a cancer that will only doom the cause. It will be hard and maybe
slow, but we're going to need more than just the faithful to get this turned
around. Bernie was a start, but too many are throwing up their hands just
because he lost the primary.
I plan to keep working to change the democratic party for the better, at
a pace that is realistic. Getting a more progressive tax structure again to
fund any of these ideas is critical first. I also can't see a guaranteed
income without a required work contribution to address the evolving economy,
given this country's attitude towards earning one's keep. A sort of advanced
CCC to work on massively fixing and improving our crumbling infrastructure
and public spaces, fighting forest fires, etc. using these tax funds is one
idea. Subsidizing quick as possible job training as new jobs evolve with the
radical changes in the economy is another. More support for local small
business and entrepreneurs (perhaps funding employees who they need for
awhile in startup phase as part of minimum guaranteed income in exchange for
work) until they prove to be an ongoing concern is another thought. Even if
these ideas are flawed, we need to rethink the paradigm of work with which
we grew up.
I don't agree. Obama could not only have done a Roosevelt 100 days, he
literally could have re-implemented many of his policies. This was a
window of opportunity that he ignored and bizarrely, the public at large
airbrushes out of its memory.
I don't at all buy that the US can't afford this. Did you forget we
spend ginormous amounts on our military, and that could instead be be
redirected to domestic uses? Japan, a less rich country generally
considered to be in decline, is vastly more egalitarian than America and
scores way above us and every other country in the world on social
indicators. Some of that, sadly, may prove out that ethnically mixed
societies don't "do" egalitarianism because some groups don't want to cut
less advantaged groups in.
The issue is that the elites (a word used only on sites like Alex
Jones before the crisis) are all in for increasing inequality. That means
not investing in education for the masses and much heavier policing,
since unequal societies are more violent, among other things.
I also do not think that Bernie, basically not subjected to any big
negative hits in the primary, would have won the general after the
right's smear machine was done with him.
Progressives need to get realistic.
Purity tests of progressive ideals is a cancer that will only doom
the cause. It will be hard and maybe slow, but we're going to need
more than just the faithful to get this turned around.
I have pulled these out of your comments, because they are generally
used by tribal Democrats to rationalize the party's incompetent,
destructive behavior. I am not saying that's why you're doing it. But I'd
like to address them.
I heartily concur with Yves' reply to you, to start.
Second, you mention in other places than the ones I quoted this idea
of doing what's "realistic" and being "realistic." What do you mean by
that? The neoliberal Democrats had a quarter of a century to demonstrate
that their way worked for the citizens of the United States and the
Democratic Party. They failed on both counts. More of strategy and policy
that has a proven record of failure would be unwise - do you agree?
If you do agree, and you want to reform the Democratic Party, as you
state above, then your choice is easy: focus your energies on getting rid
of all the entrenched neoliberals and corporate-aligned Democrats, both
party functionaries and elected officials. No positive change can occur
until that task is completed.
If you do NOT agree that the neoliberal New Democrats must be purged
from the party, what is your vision of realistic change, what makes it
realistic, and what makes it change?
Also, you are simply incorrect about Bernie and the general election.
All data we have demonstrates strongly that he would have won. There's no
smear machine in America better than the Clinton machine plus the major
corporate media aligned with it. He was smeared constantly with vile
falsehoods - one of which you clearly fell for, which is that he
wasn't
smeared. He would have held the Democratic states
unquestionably, and held the Rust Belt, and thus won the election. Tell
me what states you imagine he would have lost to Trump?
The realistic approach is get rid of the New Democrats utterly and
completely. They have failed catastrophically. That will be a hard task,
but that doesn't' make it unrealistic. To leave them in place and think
the party will win back governing power or do anything good for the
average citizen would be unrealistic.
Can anyone any longer deceive oneself about the primary meaning and purpose of the
Democratic Party? The DP, as it has been redefined and transformed since the
Nixon-McGovern election of 1972, is a political vehicle that primarily seeks to
represent the interests of mainly urban upper-middle suburban well-educated and
well-off professionals, managers, educators, and technologists, along with those
other racial/ethnic/social groups that happen to be privileged by elite opinion at
any given time.
If the quixotic Sanders run taught us anything, it is that there is no interest,
no room within the DP for critical economic and social argument. Not just radical
class-based neo-Marxist criticism but even the kind of economic issue-framing that
became a hallmark of the DP in the FDR regime and persisted with sometimes more,
other times less strength until the 70's.
The so-called "resistance" to Trump has only reaffirmed this conclusion. Insofar
as it is being led by DP and DP-leaning media and other talking-head
pseudo-intelligentsia, it has focused almost entirely on the same social lifestyle
and individual empowerment sexual/gender issues that have characterized it over the
past 40 years. This inability to think outside of what too often reduces in final
analysis to solipsistic "me-isms", for example by framing important political
questions like immigration, imperial reach, and deregulation in ways that transcend
the usual racial-ethnic-gender identity differences, prevents the DP and its
sycophants from suggesting deeper grounds for solidarity-in-opposition. Most readers
of NC understand what these deeper grounds are!
As I wrote another time a few years ago, DP players and pundits, often urban in
residence and outlook, and often themselves financially well off, ensconced in
high-priced city dwellings, shopping at Whole Foods, frequenting high-end fashion
boutiques, attending the best schools on mommy and daddy's dime, often appear more
transparently hostile and condescending to what they judge to be the unsophisticated
prejudices and religious backwardness of lower, working, and middle class Americans
than do the Trumps of the Republican Party. The latter, equally or even more
well-heeled than their ersatz opponents, have learned beginning in the Nixon-Colson
"silent majority" days, how to project a kind of "rural, small town folksiness",
filling their rallies with country music stars and NASCAR heroes, and who know enough
to drag out a "social-cultural conservative" every now and then to show that they
"hear and care" for the "forgotten American" even if they consistently ignore these
very people in the political arena.
To be sure, the Republicans don't give a rat's ass about these things. Applying
the categories of the silent-majority Americans, they are as "amoral" as the Democrat
special-interest spokespeople. However, when it is a case of neither party addressing
the causes that underlie the real deep-rooted rottenness that has become 21st Century
America, the blue collar "ordinary" American will often fall back on the party of
lip-service that at least to him or her seems to be listening to the anxieties and
resentments felt by them. The irony of course is that neoliberal policies
consistently applied will destroy (have destroyed) whatever was real and true about
the America they think has been left behind.
Great post. As an example of what you are talking about, I see very little
concern from Democrats and liberals about the current Republican efforts to pass a
national right to work law, even though this will hurt unions which are supposed
to be one of the core elements of the Democratic coalition. Is this surprising? Of
course not, given Obama's failure to fight for card check and to give support to
the embattled unions in Wisconsin during their fight with Scott Walker. What
happened to those comfortable shoes? Did Obama lose them? Unions give the
Democrats money and troops during election years and are then kicked to the curb
when the Democrats are in power or at most given scraps.
The upper-middle class professionals and managers who dominate the Democratic
Party want to continue the identity politics emphasis with regard to opposition to
Trump because they are making out well under neoliberalism and are opposed to
anything that would tilt the economy in a direction that is more favorable to
ordinary workers because they would lose their relative status. Upper-middle class
types don't want to go back to the days of the mid-20th century when doctors and
lawyers might have to share a neighborhood with factory workers.
To many progressives, saving American jobs sounds jingoistic and
"protectionism" is a bad word. Isn't global trade helping the poor become less so
around the world? Isn't it selfish only to protect American jobs? Isn't it more
moral to share scarce manufacturing jobs with the poor in Mexico and Asia? After
all, even if a plant closes in the Rust Belt, service sector jobs can be found at
wages that still are far higher than what the poor can hope for in low-wage
countries.
May I just say that as a deplorable member of the poor white working class who is
a bone-deep progressive that these are classist views of people who sit in their
comfortable middle-class bubbles and pretend there are n't people in
this
country who are suffering from the very things they are so nobly seeking to protect
workers in the third world from suffering?
If you want to know why otherwise sensible, intelligent people voted for Trump,
that paragraph right there is a major example. The content is bad enough, but that an
author who has written an excellent overview of the situation would automatically
attribute that kind of thinking to "progressives" shows just how insidious the
academic mindset is, and why the working class, regardless of race, gender, religion,
or sexual preference, automatically shuts out both categories when they stroll in to
"educate."
Any attempt to equalize wages in "poorer" countries, would also have to
address cost-of-living differences, as well.
You are not allowed, in "developed" nations, to live a subsistence lifestyle,
any longer.
With higher living standards, comes an obligation to provide citizens with a
level of income which can sustain that standard.
Thank you. Better-put than I could have done. Might I add to this that I wasn't
voting for the president of Uruguay or Mexico or whatever, who could reasonably be
expected to look out for those people. I was voting for the next president of the
United States, who I should be able to reasonably believe will look out for me, as
an American, first and foremost.
The recent primaries and Presidential election made clear to me how little the
concerns of ordinary people mean to the two national parties. However Trump was and
remains something of a wildcard - at least promising actions reflecting the concerns
of the hoi polli. He has indeed delivered in short order on several of his promises.
I have trouble characterizing the opposition and protests against Trump. Are they
inspired by the Democratic Party's knee-jerk opposition to anything Trump or
Neoliberal opponents to Trump's dismantling of the grand corporate take-over embodied
in the TPP or upper-middle "liberals" fuming about one or another of their pet issues
of the moment like immigration or climate change - issues which Trump seems
determined to throttle. My daughter was tempted to join the women's march because she
will sorely miss planned parenthood clinics when their funds are cutoff - they were
for her the only place she could find real healthCARE at any price.
At this point I tend to agree with Bernie Sanders assessment of Trump (ref.
today's links -
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2017/02/05/after-trump-moves-to-undo-financial-regulations-sanders-calls-him-a-fraud/
).
I am glad the US seems more cozy with Russia - worried about the US and China and
Iran - glad the TPP has been - at least temporarily - dismantled - in short I view
Trump as a very mixed blessing whose actions and intents remain opaque. I believe
Trump will benefit the obscenely wealthy classes but I'm not sure yet which portions
of the obscenely wealthy. I believe there is a power struggle ongoing between
different behemoth factions of the uber-rich but the waters they fight in are darkly
murky.
"upper-middle "liberals" fuming about one or another of their pet issues of the
moment like immigration or climate change "
Yeah, climate change an 'issue of the moment'.
Here is the bedrock of modern political stupdity. A total unconcern for the future
of all of us. I don't care where you think you are on the left/right BS, anyone with
your view is just another instance of the great problem.
I cannot read all the comments & know my own will be but a wisp in the wind. I am
grateful to naked capitalism, Yves & Lambert for publishing the best thinking on the
subjects.
"Workers of the World Unite" is about all I can see as the real option to pursue. How
to really do that means using all the means of the winners.
It's seems simply impossible on one hand to be nationalistic, and fair to labor
internationally at the same time.
I keep looking at WWI.
Workers of the World Unite? How? Fair Trade, Internationally the world is a struggle
between the Rich who have inherited wealth & get compound interest, pass on deeds
that survive as if a neofeudalism is just ordained.
Ah hell, I say if you cannot even imagine a utopia you ought not call yourself a
human being.
Purchasing Power Parity & World Government?
Without private property things get weird & corruption grows from elites getting
access to all.
In my Transcendia Insurodollar I overcome the flaw of Communist theory.
I have a part of it going. I have a gov. in govs. concept workable as permanently
small.
Time to expand. Doubtful, really really doubtful.
I do recognize Les is on the right track and has the correct goals. The puzzle is how
to really work at the Two Nation Solution of Workers & Power, corporate Power is
immense.
They throw out regulations we know are necessary.
Force & mind control propaganda are levers at their fingertips.
Force? 8 have so much wealth the majority divided by language & borders a challenge
is seen as doomed.
I shall imagine.
I found myself agreeing with most of the points in the post. We must be clear that
Donald Trump is anti-Globalist but to get GOP support and appointees he assimilated
their tribal beliefs. If he is stupid or crazy we must say so and explain why. If he
is right and does something that benefits American citizens such as ratcheting down
the Cold War 2.0 with Russia, we must applaud. I am fairly certain that to spite him
and keep the bribes flowing, Democrats will not support the re-branding of "Medicare
for All" to "TrumpCare".
It may be my history or old age; but, I am afraid that the global elite have
decided the USA is ripe for a final harvest and have gr
"... This is really good stuff. And I think it gets to the central core of what is wrong with traditional macroeconomic models: bargaining power. ..."
"... Technology is not driving consolidation. It only enables it, by enabling larger economies of scale. Without IT, managing operations in a large and complex company would require much higher personnel overhead just to handle all the data, information, coordination, conveying orders, etc. This overhead is not a linear function of size. ..."
Last week, we published
the first part
of an extensive three-part interview with Bernard
(Bernie) Yeung, Dean of National University of Singapore's business
school. This is the second part. The third and final part will be
published next week. In the first part of our interview with Bernard
Yeung, we talked about his seminal papers on power concentration, on
which he collaborated mainly with Randall Morck. The discussion there
focused on dominant players and their ability to shape their own
markets, the capital market, and even the economy. In this
installment, we talk about how free trade may have backfired, how
wealth and power are connected, how big corporations can control and
distort the market for ideas, and why governments may actually prefer
markets that are controlled by dominant players rather than by many
competitors. ...
... GR: Can you elaborate on what you call economic conditioning,
mainly the part in which you say it may not be vicious?
BY: Let's imagine I got rich and now own and control a bank. I'm
saying to myself that I know what's right and what's wrong. I cannot
allow new people to set up new banks and compete with me in an unruly
manner. That will create chaos. They will cause people to lose their
jobs. I help to set up barriers to entry in the financial sector. I
myself lend money to my rich friends and they will create many jobs. I
think I'm right-and I am righteous.
I overlook the positive effects that competition will generate for the
economy. I overlook the contributions of new ideas and innovations
which leads to strong future growth and good future jobs. I focus on
my lending to the established, which preserves current jobs and
creates interest earnings for me. I am not [attuned] to the
counterfactuals. I'm conditioned to believe that all I've done is good
for my bank, for the financial sector, and for the country. That's
economic conditioning. I'm not being sinful. I'm not being vicious. I
only see what's good for me, and I believe that's good for the whole
society.
GR: This was the case for the Robber Barons in the U.S. more then a
century ago.
BY: Oh yes, and I believe it's very much how Donald Trump is thinking.
GR: Do you think they genuinely believe that the country should be run
by the incumbent oligarchs?
BY: If it ain't broken don't fix it, right? 'Look at all the good
things I have done. If I'm so rich and keep so many people employed, I
cannot be so bad. I will never see people who cannot get into the
market because of my behavior. I never see them. Indeed, I am always
thinking that, in helping my established friends and using business
judgment that brings me profits, I help society, create jobs and
wealth, and my donations help society further. I see myself and my
friends as pillars of our country.' ...
... In a system with dominance, and I've already put that in paper, I
think there is built-in resistance to change. Rich people don't like
change and competition. And they themselves don't invest too much in
innovations that displace their own business; that is, no creative
self-destruction.
I believe that a vibrant and robust capital market that gives people
with good ideas a chance is very important. The problem is failed
capital markets, lack of transparency and alternatives and dominant
players in control who don't encourage entrepreneurship. ...
... GR: Is there empirical data that shows that, when we take out
economic concentration, we get better growth, better distribution of
income, and a better quality of life?
BY: Yes. Once, Randall, his student, and I looked at a current list of
top firms, compared it to a similar list of 20 years earlier, and
asked ourselves how many survived. We showed that high stability is
correlated with lower growth, lower productivity, and poorer Gini. ...
This is really good stuff. And I think it gets to the central
core of what is wrong with traditional macroeconomic models:
bargaining power.
Traditional models assume a supply curve
and a demand curve, but do not ask *why* particular players
might have a particullar supply or demand curve. If there is
market power, and sooner or later just via random chance the
number of players in any given area will shrink down to a
small numbe rthat have bargaining power, the ultimate rule
is, "Thims that has, gits."
"thims that has, gits" is why libertarianism -- and
neoclassical economic theory -- are ultimately nonsense.
An individual
worker typically has undiversified skills, constraints on
liquidity, constraints on mobility, limited information on
local market wages, few options of potential employers and a
short time horizon to consider.
Labor markets behave in very unideal fashion and generally
disadvantage the worker in negotiations with employers.
Employers, these days, can set up offices anywhere,
outsource, hire from large numbers of candidates, and they
usually know what they can get away with paying. They can
also survive without a position filled for an extended time,
while employees can only go limited time without a job.
think of each corporation as encapsulated by a circle! Each
circle encapsulates the corporate directors, the company's
workers, customers, suppliers, creditors, part time
consultants, institutional share holders, private
shareholders and foreign share holders. Such overlapping
circles constitute a Venn-diagram which provides a view of
innumerable distinct classes of folks.
Technology is not driving consolidation. It only enables it,
by enabling larger economies of scale. Without IT, managing
operations in a large and complex company would require much
higher personnel overhead just to handle all the data,
information, coordination, conveying orders, etc. This
overhead is not a linear function of size.
Fundamentally
with IT this overhead doesn't go away, but the maximal size
at which a company still remains manageable increases.
There is one "driving" aspect of technology - as having
technology becomes mandatory, the technology overhead costs
for smaller businesses tend to be larger, again because of
economies of scale and differentials in variable cost being
low compared to fixed cost, i.e. having an IT installation
that has twice the capacity doesn't cost nearly twice as much
(because it doesn't need twice the equipment and staff).
Actually you did mention the latter aspect. But in the case
you cite it is not only about the equipment and operating
cost of technology, but (by law or de facto) high fixed costs
to manage all kinds of processes and bureaucracy. Again, the
technology is only there to enable or execute the processes
and the complexity.
"... Start focusing on the predators at the top of the pyramid scheme and then watch how those same culprits and their networks "come to the rescue" in order to capitalize on the "pain and suffering" they help to create. I see a pattern, don't you? ..."
"... Don't forget student debt. Not only are many recent graduates underemployed or unemployed, they're in the hole tens of thousands. Further incentive not to make any sort of financial commitment. Student debt should be cancelled to promote earlier family formation. ..."
"... It's almost a negative feedback loop. ..."
"... Very true. Capitalism only works as long as enough people (or states) are able to take up ever-larger debt, to close the gap (called "profit") between expensive goods and comparatively cheap labour. ..."
"... Good to point out Gat Gourmet. Almost all outsourced jobs in the beginning of places where I have worked were once part of the company. ..."
"... Still, it's hard not to notice there could be nothing more convenient to the corporate and governmental powers-that-be than a nonprofit that takes it upon itself to placate, insure, and temper the precarious middle-class. ..."
"... So which ivy-league management school / guru is most culpable in unleashing the whole lean-mean-outsourcing-machine monster because it's slowly destroying my ability to remain in IT. ..."
"... "how the big company love of outsourcing means that traditional employment has declined and is expected to fall further." – ..."
"... Story of my life! I'm still trying to get paid for freelance work that I did in December. This payment delay is wreaking havoc with MY cash flow. ..."
"... Another area of friction and waste with IT consulting and other contracting, is that an employee of a company simply and efficiently plugs into their existence administrative system (HR, timekeeping, payroll, etc). ..."
"... I work in engineering at a gigantic multinational vehicle manufacturer and the role of "consultants" has been expanding with time. Rather than consultants being people with specific technical expertise who work on one subsystem component with clear interfaces to other things, it now encapsulates project managers and subsystem / function responsible people who need to have large networks inside the company to be effective. ..."
"... Considering the huge amount of time it takes to get a new hire up and running to learn the acronyms and processes and the roles of different departments, it's a bit absurd to hire people for such roles under the assumption that they can be quickly swapped out with a consultant from Company B next week. ..."
"... It's pretty clear that management sees permanent employees on the payroll as a liability and seeks to avoid it as much as possible. ..."
"... Because they, unlike us, understand class. I can state for a fact that the Big Three auto companies are well aware of how much cheaper health care costs are for them in Canada and how much better off they would be here, cost-wise, with a national health care system where McDonald's and Wal-mart have to pay the same per hour or per employee cost as they do. But it turns out cost isn't everything. Corporate (capitalist) solidarity rules. ..."
"... Michelle Malkin ..."
"... “The Marxian capitalist has infinite shrewdness and cunning on everything except matters pertaining to his own ultimate survival. On these, he is not subject to education. He continues wilfully and reliably down the path to his own destructionâ€. ..."
The Wall Street Journal has an important new story,
The End of Employees
, on how the big company love of outsourcing means that traditional employment
has declined and is expected to fall further.
Some key sections of the article:
Never before have American companies tried so hard to employ so few people. The outsourcing wave
that moved apparel-making jobs to China and call-center operations to India is now just as likely
to happen inside companies across the U.S. and in almost every industry.
The men and women who unload shipping containers at Wal-Mart Stores Inc. warehouses are provided
by trucking company Schneider National Inc.’s logistics operation, which in turn subcontracts with
temporary-staffing agencies. Pfizer Inc. used contractors to perform the majority of its clinical
drug trials last year .
The shift is radically altering what it means to be a company and a worker. More flexibility for
companies to shrink the size of their employee base, pay and benefits means less job security for
workers. Rising from the mailroom to a corner office is harder now that outsourced jobs are no longer
part of the workforce from which star performers are promoted
For workers, the changes often lead to lower pay and make it surprisingly hard to answer the simple
question “Where do you work?†Some economists say the parallel workforce created by the rise
of contracting is helping to fuel income inequality between people who do the same jobs.
No one knows how many Americans work as contractors, because they don’t fit neatly into the
job categories tracked by government agencies. Rough estimates by economists range from 3% to 14%
of the nation’s workforce, or as many as 20 million people.
As you can see, the story projects this as an unstoppable trend. The article is mainly full of success
stories, which naturally is what companies would want to talk about. The alleged benefits are two-fold:
that specialist contractors can do a better job of managing non-core activities because they are specialists
and have higher skills and that using outside help keeps companies lean and allows them to be more "agile".
The idea that companies who use contractors are more flexible is largely a myth
.
The difficulty of entering into outsourcing relationships gives you an idea of how complex they are.
While some services, like cleaning, are likely to be fairly simple to hand off, the larger ones are
not. For instance, for IT outsourcing, a major corporation will need to hire a specialist consultant
to help define the requirements for the request for proposal and write the document that will be the
basis for bidding and negotiation. That takes about six months. The process of getting initial responses,
vetting the possible providers in depth, getting to a short list of 2-3 finalists, negotiating finer
points with them to see who has the best all-in offer, and then negotiating the final agreement typically
takes a year. Oh, and the lawyers often fight with the consultant as to what counts in the deal.
On the one hand, the old saw of "a contract is only as good at the person who signed it" still holds
true. But if a vendor doesn't perform up to the standards required, or the company's requirements change
in some way not contemplated in the agreement, it is vasty more difficult to address than if you were
handling it internally. And given how complicated contracting is, it's not as if you can fire them.
So as we've stressed again and again, these arrangements increase risks and rigidity. And companies
can mis-identify what is core or not recognize that there are key lower-level skills they've mis-identified.
For instance, Pratt & Whitney decided to contract out coordination of deliveries to UPS. Here is the
critical part:
For years, suppliers delivered parts directly to Pratt’s two factories, where materials handlers
unpacked the parts and distributed them to production teams. Earl Exum, vice president of global
materials and logistics, says Pratt had “a couple hundred†logistics specialists. Some handlers
were 20- or 30-year veterans who could “look at a part and know exactly what it is,†he adds .
Most of the UPS employees had no experience in the field, and assembly kits arrived at factories
with damaged or missing parts. Pratt and UPS bosses struggled to get the companies’ computers in
sync, including warehouse-management software outsourced by UPS to another firm, according to Pratt..
The result was $500 million in lost sales in a quarter. Pratt & Whitney tried putting a positive
spin on the tale, that all the bugs were worked out by the next quarter. But how long will it take Pratt
& Whitney to recover all the deal costs plus the lost profits?
There's even more risk when the company using contractor doesn't have much leverage over them. As
a Wall Street Journal reader, Scott Riney, said in comments:
Well managed companies make decisions based on sound data and analysis. Badly managed companies
follow the trends because they're the trends. A caveat regarding outsourcing is that, as always,
you get what you pay for. Also, the vendor relationship needs to be competently managed. There was
the time a certain, now bankrupt technology company outsourced production of PBX components to a
manufacturer who produced components with duplicate MAC addresses. The contract manufacturer's expertise
obviously didn't extend to knowing jack about hardware addressing, and the management of the vendor
relationship was incompetent. And what do you do, in a situation like that, if your firm isn't big
enough that your phone calls get the vendor's undivided attention? Or if you're on different continents,
and nothing can get done quickly?
We've discussed other outsourcing bombs in past posts, such as when British Airways lost "tens of
millions of dollars" when its contractor, Gate Gourmet, fired employees. Baggage handlers and ground
crew struck in sympathy, shutting down Heathrow for 24 hours. Like many outsourced operations, Gate
Gourmet had once been part of British Airways.
And passengers blamed the airline
, not the wprkers.
Now admittedly, there are low-risk, low complexity activities that are being outsourced more, such
as medical transcription, where 25% of all medical transcriptionists now work for agencies, up by 1/3
since 2009. The article attributes the change to more hospitals and large practices sending the work
outside. But even at its 2009 level, the use of agencies was well established. And you can see that
it is the sort of service that smaller doctor's offices would already be hiring on a temp basis, whether
through an agency or not, because they would not have enough activity to support having a full-time
employee. The story also describes how SAP has all its receptionists as contractors, apparently because
someone looked at receptionist pay and concluded some managers were paying too much. So low level clerical
jobs are more and more subject to this fad. But managing your own receptionists is hardly going to make
a company less flexible.
Contracting, like other gig economy jobs, increase insecurity and lower growth.
I hate to belabor the obvious, but people who don't have a steady paycheck are less likely to make major
financial commitments, like getting married and setting up a new household, having kids, or even buying
consumer durables. However, one industry likely makes out handsomely: Big Pharma, which no doubt winds
up selling more brain-chemistry-altering products for the resulting situationally-induced anxiety and/or
depression. The short-sightedness of this development on a societal level is breath-taking, yet overwhelmingly
pundits celebrate it and political leaders stay mum.
With this sort of rot in our collective foundation, the rise of Trump and other "populist" candidates
should not come as a surprise.
I would add this. It was deplorable for Trump to have fired Acting AG Sally Yates after she ordered
Justice Department lawyers to stop defending Mr. Trump’s executive order banning new arrivals to the
U.S. from seven Muslim-majority countries.
But Sally Yates was a hero for another reason. Yates was cracking down on systemic abuses by holding
top healthcare executives personally accountable for false Medicare and Medicaid claims and illegal
physician relationships.
I remember hoping: Well, maybe Obama will actually get some decent folks into the Judiciary bring
kids home from Iraq, maybe try for Medicare over 55 (to the advantage of the insurance & Pharma sectors?)
But the one thing I'd actually expected him to accomplish was enact
https://www.congress.gov/bill/110th-congress/senate-bill/2044
which would get the Kleptocrats a
few more years out of the moldering corpse of American Labor (and not hurt multinationals, who'd off-shored,
outsourced or speciously re-classified their largely undocumented, 3rd party, contingency/ gig employees
decades previously).
Wage-theft Democrats was a new concept to some of us more easily deluded working
class Yankees, reeling from Bush. I think a strong fantasy life's essential nowadays.
I imagine that this is among the pesky downsides of living in our YOOJ autocratic neo-Confederate
theocratic kleptocracy; wage theft has always been right at the top of both parties' platforms?
If they can't hide it, who will they blame it on?
"people who don’t have a steady paycheck are less likely to make major financial commitments,
like getting married and setting up a new household, having kids"
"more brain-chemistry-altering products for the resulting situationally-induced anxiety and/or depression."
Decline in family formation and a populace seeking to anesthetize itself are indications of a civilization
in decline. Our problem is much bigger than employment.
You can employ deplorables, you can enslave deplorables, you can kill deplorables. The only way
that a "return maximizing" system won't choose killing, is if the unit cost of killing is higher
than enslavement or employment. I can hope that the bureaucratic effect of increasing costs will
work faster on the cost of killing or enslavement. Reducing the cost of employment (regulations)
wouldn't hurt.
We'd guessed this was why Dickens, NiccolĂ² Machiavelli, Frederick Douglass, E. A. Blair &
Marx were being burnt by the DeVos Christians. Why teach management for FREE, when the drooling
Know Nothings will PAY to send their dead-eyed vipers to seminars or A Beka online curricula?
Eliminate environmental protections and the entire industry that investigates, researches,
enforces, litigates, and mitigates environmental impacts are likewise eliminated. These are generally
highly skilled professions, and has wide ranging impacts from workers all the way to the global
ecosystem. Then there are economic ripple effects on top of that.
If we are going to eliminate an entire career tree, health insurance is a better choice.
Not sure what this has to do with the article, but yes people will LOSE jobs to Trump, skilled
and socially beneficial jobs like at the EPA.
For heaven knows what, jobs building useless walls to nowhere I guess, which somehow in
Trumps warped mind is a more productive line of work (it won't even work to curtail immigration).
Thank you for your astute, pertinent & seldom mentioned comment (which to those of us in
QA, is something we've believed central to the issue, not a tangent or unexpected side benefit
of our sharecropper corporatocracy).
We'd noticed contract buy-outs & forced early-retirement
in the steel industry, in the 90's, our clients' engineers (scruffy & cantankerous, who'd stand
by us if we were right & replace us if we got out of hand) were all replaced by clueless, gullible
desk jockeys, devoid of empirically honed judgement eventually, we'd have 2-3 gnarled old
timers, amidst crews of neophytes (first they tried very well trained & knowledgeable foreign
nationals, then pensioners, let go from the vendors) finally, they tried to 1099 the desperate
ones, on the run from skip-chasers, deputies & repo-men.
They'd try sending us half way across
the country, mention nothing, then see what we'd do (once we figured out we'd earned no overtime?)
We'd be in Indian or Russian owned mills where 80% of the employees were totally undocumented
foreign nationals, many of the balance wildly underpaid temps.
And the good-old-boy management
resembled characters outa Harriet Beecher Stowe. Lots of our counterparts were straight back
from Afghanistan & Iraq, verifying that most of their gig- economy contingency employment had
all been the same, regardless of industry sector: off-shored aircraft, as well as bridge, structural,
water, nuclear, inspectors what regulation?
Leveraging guilt to rationalize the Invitation of the least educated into your nation from the
most barbaric failed states and cultures in the world is another sign of civic decay.
Yup, many of the Taxi and Uber drivers around here arrived and took out private loans to
get "educated" and now are deep in debt and are too ashamed to go home.
Start focusing on the predators at the top of the pyramid scheme and then watch how those
same culprits and their networks "come to the rescue" in order to capitalize on the "pain
and suffering" they help to create. I see a pattern, don't you?
Barbarians are at the gates but you may be looking in the wrong place. Beware all types
of people are "vulnerable" and they will more easily identify with other human beings living
under a variety of diminished circumstances. Victim shaming won't be a viable option in the
not so distant future.
Dave, I hope you are not including Syria in your "failed states and cultures" description.
Syrians are
very well educated
and will add much to any nation's economy.
It is not a sign of "civic decay"
in the Syrian culture, but a sign of civic decay in a nation that will not accept people from
a war zone. An invitation should not be dependent on one's education but on one's need and desire
to survive a war zone..
Iraqis were also comparatively educated, right up through university, under its autocratic
leader. Libyans were, by and large, well educated, or at least getting so, under its autocratic
leader. The most poorly educated, probably, are those countries which have been under US or
European hegemony for generations: a lot of Central and south America, a lot of Africa, etc.
Not to mention the US itself, which has been colonizing its own hinterland for many decades.
The same applies to countries like Canada, Australia, etc. particularly in terms of their indigenous
populations.
Don't forget student debt. Not only are many recent graduates underemployed or unemployed, they're
in the hole tens of thousands. Further incentive not to make any sort of financial commitment. Student
debt should be cancelled to promote earlier family formation.
This trend matches up with the trends of dropping life expectancy, especially among the lower half
of income earners, and with slowing economies globally.
It's almost a negative feedback loop.
Politcal implications: the rise of far right politics; if you are a monarchist, or want to create
an aristocracy, these trends are probably in your interest.
Sure, it is partly psychological but it also has direct connection (by DESIGN) to the fact that
such people don't have healthcare, even with Obamacare insurance. The idiots that sing the praises
of Obamacare and how millions now have insurance seem to think that means those people have HEALTHCARE
to go with it.
Insurance is theft. Insurance is not even remotely "healthcare". Much of those newly insured have
their insurance, thanks to a government subsidy, but STILL lack healthcare because their premiums
and deductibles are too high to allow them to see doctors. Thus, they're dying or going to die sooner
due to untreated maladies, but at least they paid insurance company CEOs their bonuses with their
subsidized insurance payments!
Mutual insurance however is (was) socialist by nature. The true mutuals were crushed out of
existence by share for share conversions to private companies that ripped off policy holders and
gave a big payday to the C suites and the lawyers. Thanks to inept state insurance commissioners
and assemblies for that one.
while having health insurance doesnt mean you have health care, not having it does mean not
having health care at all, short of having a life or death condition, as hospitals (for now an
way) are only required to stabilize you. they arent required to cure you.
but then the high deductible insurance is one of those scams that some politicians gave us
because they could suggest that the patient (customer) could just shop around for better deals.
course that depends on us patients knowing what medical treatment is best for us, and which is
the cheapest of those., the former pretty much requires patients to be as knowledgeable as doctors.
the latter means we have to know what the treatments cost. could luck with that
I would force policy-makers in every advanced western nation to read and reflect on the last paragraph,
because it describes a mindset and a series of practices that are now found everywhere in western economies.
As David Harvey reminds us in his book on the Contradictions of Capitalism, Marx identified long ago
that there was a contradiction between holding down employees wages, and still expecting them to have
the purchasing power to buy the goods their cheap labour was making.
This problem has become more acute
with time, simply because we buy a lot more "stuff" than they did in the 19th century, and we take a
lot longer to pay for it, often on credit. Houses, cars, household goods, even computers, are now significant
expenditure decisions, repaid at least over months, if not years and even decades. The social corollary
of mass home ownership, after all, is some assurance that you will be employed over the life of the
mortgage. Otherwise, not only won't you buy the house, you won't improve or extend it, or even maintain
it, so a whole series of other purchases won't get made, and the construction and maintenance industries
will have less work. Instead, you'll save money, so removing purchasing power from the economy.
I assume there are people in large private sector companies clever enough to under stand this, but as
always they are focused on how much money they can extract from the system in the next few years. After
that, if the system crashes, well, who cares, They're all right.
Very true. Capitalism only works as long as enough people (or states) are able to take up ever-larger
debt, to close the gap (called "profit") between expensive goods and comparatively cheap labour.
Watching developments in recent years, this very source of profit and thus base of the economic system
is, even on a global level, quite limited
Sure. Marx Capital 1 on the crisis of production. Marx capital 2 on the crisis of realization but
this constitutes just one undesirable aspect-this one indeed very macro- among the many others which
the expansion of the "contracting-subcontracting chain" has brought and will bring about.
The Wall
Street Journal article is-as it is to expect- late, blind to the core problems of workers and incapable
to see and understand the true practical raison ( & reasons) d'Ăªtre of outsourcing. I guess Yves
Smith purpose was just to broadly replicate WSJ article
Good to point out Gat Gourmet. Almost all outsourced jobs in the beginning of places where I have
worked were once part of the company. The entire art department save two management employees were played
off and rehired by a new company doing the same work with less benefits.
Then that company was later disolved. I have seen this many times in the corporate design field now. Usually ends with disaster
and he hire of folks some back to full time but most to freelance. So I guess in a way it works out
for the company in the end and not for the worker. Amazing the amount of money a company is willing
to lose this way then use the same to pay workers better.
An excellent critique, for those who were wondering. The take away paragraph, summing up
the actual work done and purpose of, the Freelancers Union:
Still, it's hard not to notice there could be nothing more convenient to the corporate
and governmental powers-that-be than a nonprofit that takes it upon itself to placate, insure,
and temper the precarious middle-class.
So which ivy-league management school / guru is most culpable in unleashing the whole lean-mean-outsourcing-machine
monster because it's slowly destroying my ability to remain in IT.
I don't know the answer to your question, but you would have to go back over twenty years to find
it. What I find remarkable is that even though everybody affected in the early stages could see what
a dumb, destructive idea it was, the MBA types never caught on, even though most of them were not
so far up the hierarchy they could not ultimately be affected.
Contractors need Guilds or Trade Associations that are well organized and legally able to set minimum
standards for billing and performance. This is an area where Trade Unions have failed with respect to
some professions, and apparently (from what I've heard) the RICO statutes need to be amended to allow
for this. It's time to rig the other side to make companies think twice before replacing employees with
temp workers or contractors, to keep jobs within the US, and to provide a cushion and a "floor" to those
that take the risk of entrepreneurship, preventing a race to the bottom.
Yes! Geographically bound temp unions or hiring halls for all temp workers allied with low-wage
worker associations. This is NOT something that established unions want, so who will agitate for
it?
Something like the I.W.W is what I'd like to see. Yea I know the response is: they are still
around? Well not what they were long ago of course, but with the prison strike, yes around and
rising.
"how the big company love of outsourcing means that traditional employment
has declined and is expected to fall further." –
This line pissed me off this morning more than most other mornings. I literally just said goodbye
to a long-time colleague (Big Pharma) who is being outsourced as of today. The kicker(s):
The job is not high tech
Employee(s) trained their replacement who are H-1B from India
The company is moving the division to India
Of note, my state (MA) is responsible for over one-quarter of all H-1B's every year. Thankfully a
few in the industry are helping get the word out, like Nanex's Eric Hunsader yesterday. The outsourcing,
off-shoring, and H-1B abuse has to stop, but not sure The People have the will to hold political office
holders accountable enough to truly change this paradigm.
Agreed, but I've been saying the exact same thing since 1980, so I've been lobbying and being
a volunteer activist against this for many years, and yet I still run into women (not too many men
anymore) in their 60s and 70s who believe offshoring of American jobs, and insourcing foreign visa
replacement workers is fantastic (truly, we are a dumbed down society today, where they routinely
protest on behalf of the financial hegemons).
Best book on this (and I am no conservative and have never voted r-con) is Michelle Malkin's book
(with John Miano),
Sold Out!
This has been going on for a long time, and by design: with every "jobless recovery" one-fifth
of the workforce is laid off, and one-half of that one-fifth will never find another job, while one-half
of the remainder, will only find lower-paying jobs.
And each and every time, more jobs are restructured as temporary or contractor type jobs. We've
had a lot of "jobless recoveries" to date.
A recent study from Lawrence Katz and Alan Krueger found that 94% of the new jobs created over
the past some years were all part-time, while a study from Rutgers University a year or so ago found
that one-third of the new jobs created couldn't be verified as actually existing!
Nothing particularly new here, as it has been going on for quite some time (another great book
is Ron Hira's book,
Outsourcing America
).
In every category of labor – blue and white collar – the press is on to increase the supply and reduce
the demand for labor.
The book ends: The Clintons in 92′ put thru the WTO / NAFTA – shut down 10's of millions of jobs
and factories – blue & white collar. Obama did the same, with anticipating Hillary would be elected,
put forth the TTP to enable unlimited H1-b for tech workers from off shore. The Neo Liberal Democrats
were at the forefront of of this 25 year Plan for labor devaluation (with Republican help).
The Immigration Policy by government both illegal and legal were at the epicenter of increasing the
supply in all categories with various programs while Obama also increased the regulations to wipe out
more factories and deliberately reduce demand.
The solution is eliminate immigration in all forms until the 95 Million are employed and wages rise
by the equivalent of what was lost in the past 15 years plus Tariffs to enable a marginal cost compared
to imports to allow domestic factories to expand demand.
Increase the demand and lower the supply of labor will mean potentially a switch will occur from
1099 to W-2 as companies have to secure labor reliability in a short labor market which is squeezed.
The Millennials sooner or later will figure it out. Identity Politics which enables a greater supply
of labor and diversion of attention to intangible values at the expense of tangible values has to be
substituted for Labor Only Politics.
These young people have been duped based on the recent focus of the demonstrations. They don't understand
they were screwed deliberately and with great malice by "Going with Her".
I've been keeping count over the years, and as close as I can find, over 170,000 production facilities
were shipped out of the country. (Or, as David Harvey phrased it: "Identity politics instead of class
analysis.")
One aspect of outsourcing that the article does not hit upon is the impact on company cash flows,
which has some importance to large outsourcing initiatives. A company must pay its employees within
6 (it might be 7) days of the end of the pay cycle, which is typically two week. By contrast, when outsourcing,
at the end of the month the contractor will provide an invoice, the company will then pay according
to its payment cycle. This could be 30, 45, 60, 90, or even 120 days. The contractor still must pay
its bills, in essence it's providing a low cost loan to firm (which often has a lower cost of capital).
This approach, including the extension of payments has been largely driven by financial/business consultants.
It can actually get worse – they might not pay you at all, hoping that you'll file a lawsuit,
which will be interpreted according to the contract, rather than legislation which covers employment
issues. The litigation costs might exceed any payments you'd receive.
My guess is that this wouldn't happen to an individual working under a 1099 (as word might
get around), and very large firms often have leverage (not providing continuing services), but
medium-size firms often get held up for months and years (especially once the contract has
ended).
Another thing the article glosses over is that most outsourcing is simply wage cutting. I have
never once seen confirmation of the notion that "specialist" firms provide better services at comparable
labor costs than firms can do in-house. The double-bubble is that firms (and public sector employers)
often spend more on outsourcing than they would doing the work in house despite the wage savings,
which all accrue to the outsourcer of course.
When the airlines went on their deliberate BK spree in the 90's, they outsourced flying to
regional carriers. Regional a/c (45-90 seaters) have higher CASM's than the a/c the airlines actually
owned. In brief, it is cheaper to transport 100 passengers on a 100 seat a/c than to transport
100 passengers on two 50 seat a/c. That's been a fact since the Wright brothers broke the ground.
FWIW, SouthWest never went the regional route, never went BK and pays their unionized employees
quite well.
The BK spree was all about breaking labor, not operational efficiencies that would actually
save money.
but now it seems the majors are not to happy with the regionals , cause customers cant tell
the difference between them, the next problem is that for some reason the regionals cant find
pilots. seems that pilots dont want to work for less than 30,000 a year.
Another area of friction and waste with IT consulting and other contracting, is that an employee
of a company simply and efficiently plugs into their existence administrative system (HR, timekeeping,
payroll, etc).
With a consultant, there has to be reconciliation between the vendor's records and the
company's records, which means work hours burned matching everything up. And that assumes they do match
up neatly; If the vendor says "our consultant worked 50 hours this week, pay them as such" and whoever
oversees the consultant at the company claims they only approved for 40 hours, now you've got a mess
on your hands, could potentially go to the lawyers.
The idea that companies who use contractors are more flexible is largely a myth.
The difficulty of entering into outsourcing relationships gives you an idea of how
complex they are. While some services, like cleaning, are likely to be fairly simple
to hand off, the larger ones are not.
I work in engineering at a gigantic multinational vehicle manufacturer and the role of "consultants"
has been expanding with time. Rather than consultants being people with specific technical expertise
who work on one subsystem component with clear interfaces to other things, it now encapsulates project
managers and subsystem / function responsible people who need to have large networks inside the company
to be effective.
Considering the huge amount of time it takes to get a new hire up and running to learn
the acronyms and processes and the roles of different departments, it's a bit absurd to hire people
for such roles under the assumption that they can be quickly swapped out with a consultant from Company
B next week.
It's pretty clear that management sees permanent employees on the payroll as a liability and seeks
to avoid it as much as possible.
"
It's pretty clear that management sees permanent employees on the payroll as a liability. "
No doubt correct. But why is that? Over time, mandates on employers - particularly large employers
- just keep escalating. Health care; pensions; overtime; layoff notifications: regulators just keep
raising the ante. Employers respond by trying to reduce their profile and present a smaller target
to their predators. Staying under 50 employees wins a lot of exemptions from federal regulations.
Taken to an extreme, some developing countries (Argentina being one example) have European-style
labor regulations guaranteeing job security and mandating generous compensation when employees are
laid off. With hardscrabble small businesses being in no position to shoulder such risks, the result
is that about 40 percent of employment is
trabajo en negro
, with no benefits or protections
whatsoever - a perfect example of unintended consequences.
Editorial comments such as "these [contracting] arrangements increase risks and rigidity" ignore
that government employment regulations
also
increase risks and rigidity. There's a balance
of power. Overreaching, such as Obama's surprise order to vastly increase the number of employees
subject to overtime pay, leads to employer pushback in the form of more contracting and outsourcing.
Getting whacked out of the blue with a big new liability is unfair.
Concur about costs, and health care is the big one. Every other industrialized nation we compete
against has national health care. Given that, why doesn't business support Medicare for all and
get health costs off their books? Plus it would be a damsite easier to start up a business if
one had health care.
Because they, unlike us, understand class. I can state for a fact that the Big Three
auto companies are well aware of how much cheaper health care costs are for them in Canada
and how much better off they would be here, cost-wise, with a national health care system
where McDonald's and Wal-mart have to pay the same per hour or per employee cost as they
do. But it turns out cost isn't everything. Corporate (capitalist) solidarity rules.
Yes, yes, damn yes!! It's about your class, not your race, not your education, not
your gender. As Lambert might say, identity politics (your race, your education, your
gender) is used to keep your eye
off
the prize: economic opportunity
and security.
It is also easier to have part-time workers because they are still covered by health insurance
in some sort of national health insurance system. In the US, the part-time workers will have
high turnover as they look for full-time jobs to get access to health insurance.
Workers are also more likely to start their own businesses to provide services since the
health insurance is just a fee they pay instead of an astronomical non-group insurance bill.
COBRA insurance premiums are ginormous if you need to continue coverage after you leave a company.
Economists have been decrying the lack of employee mobility and small business formation
over the past decade or so. Health insurance is probably a primary reason for this. Obamacare
hasn't been around long enough and with enough certainty to change that dynamic yet.
It's probably part of it, though I suspect the bad labor market is part of it as well.
It's one thing to quit a job to start a business when you think "if it doesn't work out,
I can always go back to my old career and easily be hired", another when quitting a good
job means one might not land another ever.
haven't seen any more info on Hollande's "Flex – Security" plans to give corporations a way
to lay off workers to improve the corporation's revenue. French Labor was having none of it and
then Hollande went negative in the polls and was done for. Our contracting out former corporation
departments sounds like bad quality control at best. If the state – whatever state you can name
– is going to prop up all corporations everywhere because they can no longer successfully compete
then something is fundamentally wrong with the system that demands such murderous and mindless
competition.
well there also that wage theft rules, that employers don't like. course if you look at work
mans comp, you will find that it no longer works to protect employees any more. and maybe that
is also why employers are get rid of employees. plus there is all of that needing to manage them.
but you still end up having to manage vendors too, and while i suppose you could hire another
vendor to manage the vendors (not really sure this will work out well), it still leaves the biggest
problem
since consumers are about 70% of the entire economy (always wonder if this is true. because
almost all corporate 'investment' is done because of customer demand), seems like this business
fad, will end up with fewer customers (which seems to be the way its working too, as evidenced
by the falling sales figures from companies, even Apple), so it like business is like lemmings,
going a cliff, because some one else started
So are you a proponent of Medicare-for-all? It would be a tremendous benefit to corporations
to get out of the healthcare business and also increase employees' willingness to become freelancers
and consultants, since they'd never have to worry about healthcare.
The truth is that citizens expect a certain amount of social welfare and security. This can
be provided by 1) individuals themselves, 2) private players e.g. corporations, or 3) public players
e.g. govt. Each has downsides. If you expect individuals to provide for themselves, it will less
inefficient than having professional managers, and individuals will cut down on other consumption
and save more, thereby hurting an economy such as ours which is highly dependent on consumption.
This leaves companies and government. If companies lobby against public welfare programs like
nationalized health insurance, unemployment insurance, social security, etc., they shouldn't be
surprised if government foists those requirements back on them through back-door regulations.
To be fair to companies, most of the ones engaged in the "real economy" e.g. manufacturing,
actually wouldn't mind medicare for all, or some other program that relieves them of the burden
of providing healthcare to their employees. But they're being drowned out by the financial economy
of Wall St., banking, insurance, etc. who depend on putting more money in the hands of individuals
from whom they can extract much higher fees than they ever could from govt or corporate HR depts.
If companies don't want increased health mandates, for example, their enemy wasn't Obama: it
was the private health insurance companies that didn't want a public plan.
Yeah when I worked for one of the big 3 at an assembly plant, I felt that the use of temporary
contractors could have very negative implications.
Most of the staff though were reasonably well paid, although asked to work long hours. I think
though that overall, highly paid permanent workers pay for themselves many times over.
One aspect of the whole fandango that I don't get is how the IRS allows whole departments within
a company to be outsourced: If people show up at your plant or office every day to work on your tasks,
they are your employee, not a contractor. Is this melting away of the idea of an employee because of
lack of enforcement or some change in IRS rules that I am not aware of?
Basically, if you control a worker's day, and if that worker works regularly for you, the person
is your employee. I don't see how companies get away with this sleight of hand–avoiding, at the most
basic legal level, who is on staff or not. [Unless the result, as many note above, is to increase class
warfare.]
The company doesn't get away with it if someone is willing to whistleblow to the IRS and said
company fails the IRS 20-Factor Test (IC vs. employee). The nice thing there too, is that the tax
burden will be on the company and not the employee. While I don't advocate being a stoolie, if a
company wants to screw me over turn-about is fair play. I do the best I can to avoid those kinds
of companies in the first place.
"
One aspect of the whole fandango that I don’t get is how the IRS allows whole departments
within a company to be outsourced
. . "
If I understand your question correctly it is because a federal regulation was enacted by congress
(I believe one of them was faux-progressive, Jim McDermott, no longer in congress but co-founder
of the India Caucus, to replace American workers with foreign visa workers from India) which
forbids
oversight of the foreign visa program
- and yes, they established a federal regulation killing
oversight of the program by the government!
Someone quoted Norm Matloff (a known bigot) above. You are now quoting anchor child Filipino
bigot
Michelle Malkin
of all people ? It's not helping your case.
The H1-B program is a few hundred thousand
legal
tax paying people a year. There are
21 million Mexican illegals in this country. What do you think has more downward pressure on wages
? .005% H1-B (yeah, you read that right) of the total immigrant/wage pressure ? It's idiotic and
a purely bigoted worldview.
We are supposed to regard "a few hundred thousand" as bupkis when they are concentrated
in one sector?
The H1-B visa program has has a huge impact on wages in the IT sector and has virtually
eliminated entry-level computer science jobs. This is strategically foolhardy, in that the
US is not creating the next generation of people capable of running critical infrastructure.
And the illegal immigrants do pay taxes: sales, gas, and property taxes through their rents.
And many actually do pay FICA. The Treasury recognizes that certain Social Security numbers
are reused many times, and it's almost certainly for illegal immigrants. In fact, the IRS encourages
illegal immigrants to "steal" Social Security numbers:
That article whinges about possible tax credit scamming, but even that estimate is well
below what they pay in FICA, $12 billion. And pretty much none of them will draw benefits.
This is from memory, but I believe they collect over $4 billion from these SSN per year.
And most of these jobs are seasonal and/or too low wage for them to pay much in the way of
income taxes when they are being paid in cash.
H1-B is not in one industry, the .005% is spread across entry level jobs in all industries:
finance, automotive, insurance, arts, film, automation, etc. The total amount of H1-B is
minuscule, vanishingly close to zero in a country of 300+ million and 20+ million illegals.
You don't seem to be complaining about the tens of
millions
that used to concentrated
in one sector..actual manufacturing. Wonder why ? Here's a hint: that sector
used
to make computer peripherals, keyboards, mice, terminals, monitors, LCD's, chips, motherboards,
pretty much everything in the USA.
Employees in china, taiwan, etc pay zero USA taxes and they displaced millions of manufacturing
jobs. And ironically, you are using an entirely outsourced computer (that actually displaced
tens of millions of jobs in the aggregate) to complain about the minuscule .005% H1-B effect.
A few hundred thousand entry level coding jobs (which are ridiculously simple and lo-tech,
google
13 year olds
getting Microsoft certified to see how low down on the value
chain this is). You genuinely think writing a few for-loops (I am simplifying a little but
you get the idea) is hard ?
Certainly, way way less capital intensive and way way less barrier to entry than Hi-Tech
manufacturing. It's all going to be outsourced much faster than manufacturing was, since
there is literally no barrier to entry. And H1-B is a good thing, relatively speaking, compared
to full on outsourcing (just like manufacturing was).
Like I said, the only explanation for these anti H1-B posts is plain old bigotry. No
other explanation comes close.
Might as well finish my train of thought..then I'm outta here.
There are less H1-B visas this year than
refugees
, Refugees (not to mention
the 20 million illegals) also put downward pressure on wages across all industries, but
of course, those are all food servicing/picking/janitorial jobs and who cares about those
people right ? (sarcasm for the impaired)
So, coming back to H1-B's..let's take the logical alternative and ban all H1-B's entirely
and deport the ones on H1-B visas. What happens then ?
1) They can do the job exactly as well remotely (all they need is email/internet/skype).
2) They get paid even less (but more than zero).
3) They pay no taxes.
4) Their output is words..code is the same as prose and math. Good luck banning math/words..if
it can be printed on a t-shirt, it ain't bannable. (See the famous bernstein crypto case
from the early 90's for a illustration of this).
5) And finally..there are zero new jobs added for native USA'ians (which would now cost
more, given the alternative).
It makes the situation far worse than it is today. There is fewer local coffee shop
selling coffee, fewer rental units getting rented, fewer groceries getting bought, cars
being purchased, etc.
For a easily displaceable and low barrier to entry coding gig, there isn't any easy
answer. H1-B's are actually the best
solution
(or at the very least neutral),
not the problem.
The H1-B visa program is operated so as to wreck the bargaining power of native born young
U.S. workers. Young Americans are increasingly likely to be nonwhite AND from the less valued
(not Asian) subgroups of nonwhite. The damage H1-Bs do to our white Baby Boomers is almost
incidental at this point; they are aging out of the workforce. And given the intense age bigotry
of the IT subculture, they are not a factor within it at all at this point.
H1-B visas lock our striving, capable working class young people out of upward mobility.
Kids who are now graduating from say, San Jose State with skills as good as those of South
Asians don't get jobs that they are qualified for, because they are shut out of entry to the
business. They are disdained in Silicon Valley because the majority of entry level conduits
to employment are now locked up (via social contacts, and "who-you-know" relationships) by
men from the subcontinent.
Your race argument is pernicious and I suspect, promoted in the full the knowledge of this
fact. It is a great shame that we are relying on kooks like Malkin to promote obvious truths,
but the shame belongs to our morally derelict 'liberal' chattering class, not those who listen
to her and her ilk for lack of other sources.
An underappreciated aspect of contracting versus cultivating your own employees is that it hollows
out the organization to the point that it may no longer have competence to perform its mission. Having
an apparent success at contracting out menial tasks, the temptation is to keep going and begin to contract
out core functions. This pleases the accountants but leaves the whole organization dependent on critical
talent that has very little institutional loyalty. When an inevitable technical paradigm shift occurs,
who can you count on to give you objective and constructive advice?
Costs of training and cultivating employees are high, and it is tempting to think that these costs
can be eliminated by using contractors. It is strictly an apparent, short-term gain which will in due
time be revealed as a strategic mistake. Do we have to learn every lesson the hard way?
yes, and when I read that Pfizer farms out research, I also wondered if retention of the outsource
company contract is results-related. could new drug results hinge on a company wanting to keep their
Pfizer contract by telling them what they want to hear?
Agreed. Every time a company offshores jobs or goes through another round of layoffs, it loses
its institutional memory. This is particularly acute in the mainframe IT systems that prop up the
TBTFs (yep, they offshored these too). After a while, nobody understands exactly how these systems
work and can only get to the bottom of them by reading code, which is a pretty flawed way to learn
the business. This has been going on for years and nobody cares.
Centralized bargaining - a.k.a., sector wide labor agreements - is the only strategic answer to contracting
out. Done in continental Europe, French Canada, Argentina, Indonesia.
(Take a vacation from reality with Soma - one gram and I don't give a damn.)
The one word I don't see in your excellent writeup is
loyalty
. Companies, like countries
depend to a great extent on social constraints to keep people committed to the group. You cannot monitor
all people all the time and doing so causes them to turn against you. But companies staffed with contractors
and temps and temps supervising contractors have no loyalty to the company. Ergo no one employee has
any reason to go the extra inch or to turn down the chance to sell out for personal gain should the
opportunity arise.
All that imposes real costs that companies conveniently ignore because they are not always realized
in share price.
I was going to add the same thought, but use the label "goodwill." It is something that appears
on balance sheets in enormous amounts depending on what the accountants think it may represent.
There is a "goodwill bank" in the labor pool of any given company, and when the balance hits zero,
the company will fail, "emigrate" its capital, or go public to the greater fools. Companies are engaged
in a savage race to the bottom that is inherent in corporate structure: executives are now playing
with somebody else's money, and somebody else's life. If corporate liability were suddenly returned
to the days of the partnership, what a change we would see. And those days were not so long ago:
Wall Street remembers the 1960s.
PS What a treat to come here and see informative journalism and commentary instead of the monkey
cage.
My daughter was recruited and interviewed by Genentech and then sent to work for an organization
called PPD. PPD did nothing in this relationship, other than take money from Genentech pocketed about
1/2 of that and then pay her the rest. I really couldn't figure out what the heck the point of this
was, other than some long running strategy to ultimately depress salaries of Genentech chemists.
One of my kids works in a unionized metal foundry (they still exist in the US!). When they need
new workers, they bring several in through a temp agency for several months. If they can cut it and
are acceptable, then they get pulled into the union or into the plant management team. This allows
them to try out several people on a rent-to-own basis, but in the long run they become loyal company
employees with very low turnover.
Contract-to-hire is not new. The problem from an employee perspective is trying to evaluate
when a company is actually serious about hiring if the contractee does a good job, and when it's
just empty promises and they have no intent of making full time job offers at all.
BTW – the Genentech scientists probably get a bunch of benefits like bonuses and stock options,
etc. that are not available to the contract workers. They probably have more protections if they
are terminated or laid off whereas the contract workers would be done that day. The really good contract
workers may get offers to work at the company for the long-run.
Outsourcing is done in the public realm, too; my first job after grad school was with a major housing
authority – except it wasn't for them (despite me having a "housingauthority.org" email address). I
worked for a contractor of the housing authority, who paid us shit and treated us like cattle. I lasted
three months.
One area not discussed in this post is municipal outsourcing. What this means in practice is the
loss of organizational memory . assuming that records are not adequately maintained since the "old-timers"
were still around. But with the loss of human memory banks, no new ones (digital?) have taken their
place. Further, when consultants are hired for a specific project, when they have completed that project,
what they have learned as ancillary knowledge is lost cuz the end-product is all that counts, not the
process.
i.e. Rip up the entire street to find where the pipe is because the old public works director
who was replaced with a bright young woman with a degree before he qualified for his pension, got
even and deleted the maps on the software. :-)
Didn't Yves mention this loss of institutional memory in reference to fianancial services, or
was it banks, and their IT?
Further to government outsourcing:
Back a few years my wife and I worked for a school district on the East coast of Canada. The janitorial
service had been outsourced a few years previously, with the former head janitor becoming the main
contractor, who then hired other cleaning staff to work for him. He/she was already being squeezed
to reduce his rates, leading to work not done or his working from 8AM to midnight to save an after-school
employee. So–lower employment overall, all at minimum wage, including the main contractor.
One district had bucked the province-wide trend by keeping its own cleaning staff. Visiting the
schools in that district those few years later, one could see the result, in vastly superior level
of cleanliness, better co-ordination between admin and teaching staff with cleaners, and much better
relations with students as well.
The staff weren't bosses, the cleaners weren't minions, and the students weren't customers. They
were a team.
I don't think there will be a change in this because it's too profitable for the CEOs to strip mine
the companies assets (knowledgeable employees are an asset) for maximum "shareholder value" (always
replace "shareholder value" with "my compensation"). I suppose this will change when all companies are
stripped to the bone and go under. But we now call these "too big to fail" and prop them up with taxpayer
dollars.
We need to change incentives. These might help:
Make corporations really pay taxes so that it makes sense to invest in the company rather than strip
it.
Don't prop up TBTF companies, let them fail so that many small companies can grow.
Stop all the fraud and corruption. Send corrupt CEOs to jail.
Medicare for All would be a boon for businesses, especially the smaller and mid-sized ones.
Herb Kelleher, CEO of Southwest, was once asked where he ranked shareholders vs employees. He replied
employees were first (because if the employees are not happy, then the customers are not happy), customers
(they pay the bills), and shareholders (they buy and sell shares in seconds). If the company is successful,
the shareholders will come. We somehow need to get back to these company values. A successful company
starts with the employees.
This is a pretty ugly development in our history. The 'end of employees' is a very accurate description
of what is going on in our gig economy related to a specific legal contradiction. In the U.S., we've
adopted a vast body of labor laws ( many in response to the Industrial Revolution and Great Depression
) that are primarily designed to protect "employees" from exploitation. Buried deep in our tax law is
a second designation for worker called "independent contractor", defined as a self-employed person providing
services to other businesses that is exempt from most labor laws on the principle that a self-employed
person can't exploit themselves. The key here is labor laws protect 'employees' from 'employer' abuses.
Changing a workers classification from employee to ( self-employed ) contractor, will change an employers
classification to customer, and remove the workers legal protections from exploitation. Labor law protections
include minimum wage and hours, workplace safety and health, wrongful dismissal protections, anti-discrimination
protections, employee benefits security, and worker compensation protections. This contradiction is
allowing many companies to sidestep centuries of laws enacted to stabilize and and protect our society.
Some companies push this power imbalance even further by transferring many of the business costs associated
with their revenue to employee contractors ( see Uber ).
Hopefully when there is enough public outcry, regulators and prosecutors will decide to challenge
these interpretations of existing laws and force businesses back in line regardless of their political
influence.
Incidentally, the slippery logic that removes labor law protections by classifying a worker
as self-employed ( both employer and employee ) might also grant businesses protections from their
workers via consumer protection laws against fraud and unfair practices ( when businesses become
customers of their now self-employed former employees ).
As has been stated several times, sometimes government entities are the worst offenders here. Grover
Norquist & Co. insisted on shrinking the size of government. The obedient elected officials and managers
immediately replaced employees with contractors and could claim that they had indeed reduced the size
of government. Unfortunately the budget probably went up since we now have to provide profit for the
rent extracting contract vendors.
A few years ago I was working for a family of local weekly papers, run on a shoestring (of course)
with pathetic salaries for the tiny staff. At one point, they heard about possibly outsourcing design–layout
of modular pages–to cheap labor in Romania. But when they ran the numbers .our in-house designers were
already cheaper than the Romanians!
Second point: At my current magazine I am one of just two full-time staffers on the edit side. Our
copy-editor/proofreader is paid on an hourly basis, and works off-site. Our designer works on a monthly
retainer, off-site. And so on.
That makes the relationship between us and our workers competitive and antagonistic: They try to
do the least amount of work, and we try to pay the least amount of money. So when the publisher wants
to be "innovative" or try something different, the designer resists. He doesn't want to spend any more
time on us than he normally does. So we don't do anything well, we get by with just good enough.
Point 3 – institutional knowledge: One of our key competitive advantages has been/is being eroded
because there are things we haven't done in two years due to turnover. When I arrived and took up one
such project, hugely important to the company's bottom line, no one could tell me how it was done. Everyone
who had been involved in it was gone. We've now spent several months reinventing this particular wheel.
But the publisher doesn't see that as money. He only sees money as money.
BTW – the financial sector is ripe for this. Automation is taking over many positions and people
in active investing is getting slashed big-time. Ironically, places like Vanguard may actually be some
of the last bastions of actual employees.
The problem with these short term contract jobs are immense. Employees that don't have a steady income
have difficulty getting loans for cars or homes. They certainly have less protection too. Our son worked
for SKY TV as a part time employee through a temp agency for 3 years, working 40 hour weeks. But when
an unstable full time employee assaulted him, in front or several witnesses, he was the one fired on
the spot without explanation. He was a non-person. The temp agency didn't want to get involved for fear
of losing their contract. With no union, no rights and little money, there was little he could do. They
knew he couldn't afford a lawyer and involving the police wouldn't get his job back. This goes on all
the time now. 20 years ago would have been unthinkable. I see a revolution coming, in many countries
Given the long evident fact that our corporate owners and their servants in government will not do
a bloody thing to make life better for us, what can we do? As a first step toward any solution, we need
to recognize that nothing is possible within the narrow boundaries of our political and economic system.
What you describe as a first step seems a lot like a claim of inevitable failure. Rather than
expect failure, I recommend as a first step that we try to block a few of Trump's predatory cabinet
nominations. Andrew Puzder, the nominee to head the Labor Department, and Steven Mnuchin, nominated
to be the Secretary of the Treasury, seem to be very relevant to the scope of this article. Also
Tom Price, nominated to be the Secretary of Health and Human Services. Tell your Senators that you
don't want them to be confirmed. It's easy, although you might need to make a few extra phone calls,
because the Congressional phone lines are often busy these days.
I ask, Why can't banks be fully automated? You wouldn't need CEOs and COOs and CFOs in banks because
IT can do all those jobs automatically. Then we would find out that we only need ONE bank–the central
bank and, voila, the banks no longer can create money by making loans. (I'm sure there is a weak point
in this argument!!!) However, I can see something like this happening in the future if only we separate
investment banking from commercial banking.
Marx saw capitalism as an endless class struggle between the bourgeoisie and the proletariat.
He wasn’t far wrong.
1920s – high inequality, high banker pay, low taxes for the wealthy, robber barons, reckless bankers,
globalisation phase (bourgeoisie in the ascendency)
1970s â€" low inequality, worker and union power, high taxes on the wealthy (proletariat in the ascendency)
(probably more true in the UK than the US)
2000s â€" high inequality, high banker pay, low taxes on the wealthy, robber CEOs, reckless bankers,
globalisation phase (bourgeoisie in the ascendency)
The pendulum swings back and forth and always swings too far in both directions.
If the human race could take a more sensible, big picture view they might see it as a balance between
the supply side (bourgeoisie) and the demand side (proletariat).
The neoliberal era has been one where a total ignorance of debt has held sway.
Redistributive capitalism was removed to be replaced with a capitalism where debt based consumption
has become the norm. without a single mainstream economist realising the problem.
The world is maxing out on debt, this system is set to fail due to a lack of demand. The Bourgoisie
have been in the ascendency and made their usual mistake.
“The Marxian capitalist has infinite shrewdness and cunning on everything except matters pertaining
to his own ultimate survival. On these, he is not subject to education. He continues wilfully and reliably
down the path to his own destructionâ€.
Keynes thought income was just as important as profit, income looks after the demand side of the
equation and profit looks after the supply side.
He has the idea of balance.
Just maximising profit â€" The Bourgeoisie looking after their own short term, self interest with
no thought of the longer term.
1) Money at the top is mainly investment capital as those at the top can already meet every need,
want or whim. It is supply side capital.
2) Money at bottom is mainly consumption capital and it will be spent on goods and services. It is
demand side capital.
You need to keep the balance.
Too much capital at the bottom and inflation roars away.
Too much capital at the top and there is no where sensible to invest and the Bourgeoisie indulge
in rampant speculation leading to the inevitable Wall Street Crash, 1929 and 2008.
Today’s negative yield investments?
Too much capital at the top, no one wants it and you have to pay people to take it off your hands.
"You need to keep the balance." The post war era was balance, that was the middle of the pendulum
swing, we have never seen you're next sentence:
"Too much capital at the bottom and inflation roars away." When? Name one instance outside of
extraordinary political situations like weimar germany and zimbabwe where this has occurred?
Inflation is the boogey man that the elite throw around to scare us into submission. They don't
care when its inflation of house prices, they don't care when its inflation of healthcare costs,
education costs, etc. etc. But they damn sure start sweating a lot when its the cost of labor that
goes up. Shocker.
"Gate Gourmet had once been part of British Airways. And passengers blamed the airline."
You can transfer expenses, you can transfer legal and regulatory liability risk, you can transfer
financial risk, but it is virtually impossible to transfer reputational risk. Companies who think they
can do so (or ignore the fact) do so at their own peril.
My d-i-l, a research professional, has survived five down-sizings, assuming an additional work load
each time. The last time she also got a small promotion (well, you'd think they'd give her something
positive after all this). To myself I thought, they're going to wear this woman out till she has nothing
left to give and dump her.
It's worse. The corporation (company is a concept from
my
early working days) just announced
that everyone would have to bid for their projects(jobs). What this means of course is "how much are
you willing to give?" not to mention pitting one employee against another.
I "work" (temp/contract/no benefits) at a large multinational electronics company in cust service
and have seen this first hand. In response to a couple years of dropping profits, they outsourced the
entire department (couple hundred employees) to the Philippines. They cut full time employees, replace
them with temps for half the pay, because people will do it, and we live in desperate times with no
bargaining power.
As someone mentioned, its a negative feedback loop, less demand, less employment, less demand, until
the whole world is greece. We won't make it through another world war, the world is too globalized,
too connected, too advanced technologically. We need a relatively peaceful populist revolution – which
we seem to be seeing the first real signs of – or our species is done for.. and the sad part is I'm
not even exaggerating.
One point you missed is that a company cannot manage, let alone write a contract very well unless
it has sufficient expertise on staff. It is not sufficient to hire a consultant unless that arrangement
is more or less permanent. Too many things can go wrong, as they often do even with competent staff
when projects are complex or innovative.
"... The 1970s stagflation hit these companies particularly hard, with the result that the whole was worth less than the sum of the parts. This made for an easy formula for takeover artists: buy a conglomerate with as much debt as possible, break it up and sell off the pieces. ..."
"... But CEOs recognized how the newly-installed leaders of LBO acquisitions got rich through stock awards or option-type compensation. They wanted a piece of the action. ..."
"... It produces short-termism, underinvestment, and a preoccupation with image management . We wrote in 2005 for the Conference Board Review about how the preoccupation with quarterly earnings led companies to underinvest on a widespread basis . Richard Davies and Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England demonstrated that companies were using unduly high discount rates, which punished long-term investment. Pearlstein provides more confirmation: ..."
"... Obliquity gives rise to the profit-seeking paradox: the most profitable companies are not the most profit-oriented. ICI and Boeing illustrate how a greater focus on shareholder returns was self-defeating in its own narrow terms. Comparisons of the same companies over time are mirrored in contrasts between different companies in the same industries. In their 2002 book, Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies, Jim Collins and Jerry Porras compared outstanding companies with adequate but less remarkable companies with similar operations. ..."
"... It is our social capital that is now badly depleted. This erosion manifests in the weakened norms of behavior that once restrained the most selfish impulses of economic actors and provided an ethical basis for modern capitalism. ..."
"... A capitalism in which Wall Street bankers and traders think peddling dangerous loans or worthless securities to unsuspecting customers is just "part of the game," a capitalism in which top executives believe it is economically necessary that they earn 350 times what their front-line workers do, a ..."
"... I think that you seriously underestimate Trump. Napoleon excelled in an environment where military success was primary; Trump excels in a mediated environment where PR and imagery are primary. IMVHO, there are some eerie parallels between the two men; whether you like them or not, both men could be characterized by: ambition, vision, vindictiveness, and a willingness obliterate traditional social and political boundaries. ..."
"... Many elite professionals are deeply upset with Trump's win. Yet the ideology that he represents is very much in line with the logic of corporate raiders, many of whom, like him, went to Wharton Business School. And many elite professionals, in particular lawyers and consultants, profited handsomely from the adoption of the buccaneer capitalist view of the world and actively enabled much of its questionable thinking and conduct. ..."
"... That Wharton Business School model is oblivious to the human needs for: fairness, reciprocity, culture, and the need to penalize duplicity. (I would argue that the Wharton model exalts duplicity, if only to pass it off as some kind of exceptional superpower wielded only by Business Elites.) When you corrode trust, you damage economies. ..."
"... Trump is the apotheosis of neoliberal economics + junk-bond fueled casino empires in a media environment that worships 'shareholder value' and has lost sight of what genuinely creates sustainable value over the long term. ..."
"... did Friedman capture the growing political aggressiveness of capital, as capital gradually overcame the Great Fear of the 30s and prepared to mount, as Streeck has argued, a counteroffensive against the constraints of welfare capitalism? Likely all of the above, but in what proportions? ..."
"... It is that acme of Liberalism, Warren Buffett that created this fad. At a time when corporate dividends were taxed as ordinary income, whereas a stock price bump would be tax deferred - and ultimately taxed at long term capital gains rates - the scheme was merely tax avoidance. Warren Buffett's entire empire is based on this and other tax avoidence schemes. ..."
"... The maximize shareholder value ideology in practice looks like maximize CEO compensation and to heck with the company's long term prospects. imo. ..."
"... Considering relationship between share's liquidity and short-termism , any measure which reduces share's liquidity, for example a high tax on short term capital gain, will greatly reduce both short-termism and corporate governance issues as share holders will be forced to assume the risk they were supposed to bear in exchange of supermacy of their interest. ..."
"... While it has damaged corporate social responsibilities and banks' and corporations' long-term financial stability, actions taken pursuant to the Shareholder Value optimization model have served well many individuals on Wall Street, at private equity firms, CEOs of large publicly traded corporations, hedge funds, networked board members, their academic and professional servicers, and the political elite ..."
"... Reflecting back on developments like the dotcom bubble of 1999-2000; the underlying causes of the financial collapse of 2007-09; massive debt-leveraged corporate stock buybacks; socially damaging private equity LBOs; the current volumes of opaque OTC derivatives at large financial institutions; repeated episodes of environmental damage caused by firms in extractive industries seeking short-term financial returns; and the license it provides to exert power over legislation and regulation by those who own and control these corporations in a Citizens United legal framework; etc., it is difficult to see much in the way of redeeming social value in this corporate governance model. ..."
"... Is it simple greed, stupidity, cynicism, groupthink, false consciousness, sociopathy, the 'attractions' of a certain lifestyle, daddy-didn't-love-them-enough or what that leads certain types to behave the ways they do and seek to justify it? ..."
From the early days of this website, we've written from time to time about why the "shareholder
value" theory of corporate governance was made up by economists and has no legal foundation. It has
also proven to be destructive in practice, save for CEO and compensation consultants who have gotten
rich from it.
Further confirmation comes from a must-read article in American Prospect by Steven Pearlstein,
When Shareholder Capitalism Came to Town. It recounts how until the early 1990s, corporations
had a much broader set of concerns, most importantly, taking care of customers, as well as having
a sense of responsibility for their employees and the communities in which they operated. Equity
is a residual economic claim. As we wrote in 2013:
Directors and officers, broadly speaking, have a duty of care and duty of loyalty to the corporation.
From that flow more specific obligations under Federal and state law. But notice: those responsibilities
are to the corporation , not to shareholders in particular ..Equity holders are at the
bottom of the obligation chain. Directors do not have a legal foundation for given them preference
over other parties that legitimately have stronger economic interests in the company than shareholders
do.
And even in the early 1980s, common shares were regarded as a speculative instrument. And rightly
so, since shares are a weak and ambiguous legal promise: "You have a vote that we the company can
dilute whenever we feel like it. And we might pay you dividends if we make enough money and are in
the mood."
However, 1900s raiders who got rich by targeting companies that had gotten fat, defended their
storming of the corporate barricades by arguing that their success rested on giving CEOs incentives
to operate in a more entrepreneurial manner. In reality, most of the 1980s deals depended on financial
engineering rather than operating improvements. Ironically, it was a form of arbitrage that reversed
an earlier arb play in the 1960s. Diversified corporations had become popular in the 1960s as a borderline
stock market scam. Companies like Teledyne and ITT, that looked like high-fliers and commanded lofty
PE multiples, would buy sleepy unrelated businesses with their highly-valued stock. Bizzarely, the
stock market would value the earnings of the companies they acquired at the same elevated PE multiples.
You can see how easy it would be to build an empire that way.
The 1970s stagflation hit these companies particularly hard, with the result that the whole
was worth less than the sum of the parts. This made for an easy formula for takeover artists: buy
a conglomerate with as much debt as possible, break it up and sell off the pieces.
But CEOs recognized how the newly-installed leaders of LBO acquisitions got rich through stock
awards or option-type compensation. They wanted a piece of the action.
One of their big props to this campaign was the claim that companies existed to promote shareholder
value. This had been a minority view in the academic literature in the 1940s and 1950s. Milton Friedman
took it up an
intellectually incoherent New York Times op-ed in 1970 . Michael Jensen of Harvard Business School
and William Meckling of the University of Rochester argued in 1976 that corporate managers needed
to have their incentives better aligned with those of shareholders, and the way to do that was to
have most of their pay be equity-linked. In the late 1980s, Jensen in a seminal Harvard Business
Review article, claimed that executives needed to be paid like entrepreneurs. Jensen has since renounced
that view.
Why The Shareholder Value Theory Has No Legal Foundation
Why do so many corporate boards treat the shareholder value theory as gospel? Aside from the power
of ideology and constant repetition in the business press, Pearlstein, drawing on the research of
Cornell law professor Lynn Stout, describes how a key decision has been widely misapplied:
Let's start with the history. The earliest corporations, in fact, were generally chartered
not for private but for public purposes, such as building canals or transit systems. Well into
the 1960s, corporations were broadly viewed as owing something in return to the community that
provided them with special legal protections and the economic ecosystem in which they could grow
and thrive.
Legally, no statutes require that companies be run to maximize profits or share prices. In
most states, corporations can be formed for any lawful purpose. Lynn Stout, a Cornell law professor,
has been looking for years for a corporate charter that even mentions maximizing profits or share
price. So far, she hasn't found one. Companies that put shareholders at the top of their hierarchy
do so by choice, Stout writes, not by law
For many years, much of the jurisprudence coming out of the Delaware courts-where most big
corporations have their legal home-was based around the "business judgment" rule, which held that
corporate directors have wide discretion in determining a firm's goals and strategies, even if
their decisions reduce profits or share prices. But in 1986, the Delaware Court of Chancery ruled
that directors of the cosmetics company Revlon had to put the interests of shareholders first
and accept the highest price offered for the company. As Lynn Stout has written, and the Delaware
courts subsequently confirmed, the decision was a narrowly drawn exception to the business–judgment
rule that only applies once a company has decided to put itself up for sale. But it has been widely-and
mistakenly-used ever since as a legal rationale for the primacy of shareholder interests and the
legitimacy of share-price maximization.
How the Shareholder Value Theory Has Been Destructive
The shareholder value theory has proven to be a bust in practice. Here are some of the reasons:
It produces short-termism, underinvestment, and a preoccupation with image management . We
wrote in 2005 for the Conference Board Review about
how the preoccupation with quarterly earnings led companies to underinvest on a widespread basis
. Richard Davies and Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England demonstrated that companies were using
unduly high discount rates, which punished long-term investment. Pearlstein provides more confirmation:
A recent study by McKinsey & Company, the blue-chip consulting firm, and Canada's public pension
board found alarming levels of short-termism in the corporate executive suite. According to the
study, nearly 80 percent of top executives and directors reported feeling the most pressure to
demonstrate a strong financial performance over a period of two years or less, with only 7 percent
feeling considerable pressure to deliver strong performance over a period of five years or more.
It also found that 55 percent of chief financial officers would forgo an attractive investment
project today if it would cause the company to even marginally miss its quarterly-earnings target.
As we've stated before, we've been hearing this sort of thing from McKinsey contacts for more
than a decade. And the "55 percent" figure likely understates the amount of short-termism. First,
even in a presumably anonymous survey, some CFOs might be loath to admit that. Second, for any project
big enough to impact quarterly earnings, the CFO is almost certain not to have the final say. So
even if his team approves it, it could be nixed by the CEO out of concern for earnings impact.
It empirically produces worse results . We've written from time to time about the concept of obliquity,
that in a complex system that is affected by interactions with it, it is impossible to map out a
simple path to a goal. As a result, other approaches are typically more successful. From
a 2007 Financial Times article by John Kay , who later wrote a book about the concept:
Obliquity gives rise to the profit-seeking paradox: the most profitable companies are not
the most profit-oriented. ICI and Boeing illustrate how a greater focus on shareholder returns
was self-defeating in its own narrow terms. Comparisons of the same companies over time are mirrored
in contrasts between different companies in the same industries. In their 2002 book, Built to
Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies, Jim Collins and Jerry Porras compared outstanding
companies with adequate but less remarkable companies with similar operations.
Merck and Pfizer was one such comparison. Collins and Porras compared the philosophy of George
Merck ("We try never to forget that medicine is for the people. It is not for the profits. The
profits follow, and if we have remembered that, they have never failed to appear. The better we
have remembered it, the larger they have been") with that of John McKeen of Pfizer ("So far as
humanly possible, we aim to get profit out of everything we do").
Collins and Porras also paired Hewlett Packard with Texas Instruments, Procter & Gamble with
Colgate, Marriott with Howard Johnson, and found the same result in each case: the company that
put more emphasis on profit in its declaration of objectives was the less profitable in its financial
statements.
Some more commonly-cited reasons for why a focus on shareholder value hurts performance is that
it dampens innovation. Pearlstein describes another, how it demotivates workers:
Perhaps the most ridiculous aspect of shareholder–über-alles is how at odds it is with every
modern theory about managing people. David Langstaff, then–chief executive of TASC, a Virginia–based
government-contracting firm, put it this way in a recent speech at a conference hosted by the
Aspen Institute and the business school at Northwestern University: "If you are the sole proprietor
of a business, do you think that you can motivate your employees for maximum performance by encouraging
them simply to make more money for you?" Langstaff asked rhetorically. "That is effectively what
an enterprise is saying when it states that its purpose is to maximize profit for its investors."
And on a societal level, it erodes social capital and trust, which are the foundations for commerce:
It is our social capital that is now badly depleted. This erosion manifests in the weakened
norms of behavior that once restrained the most selfish impulses of economic actors and provided
an ethical basis for modern capitalism.
A capitalism in which Wall Street bankers and traders think peddling dangerous loans
or worthless securities to unsuspecting customers is just "part of the game," a capitalism in
which top executives believe it is economically necessary that they earn 350 times what their
front-line workers do, a capitalism that thinks of employees as expendable inputs, a capitalism
in which corporations perceive it as both their fiduciary duty to evade taxes and their constitutional
right to use unlimited amounts of corporate funds to purchase control of the political system-that
is a capitalism whose trust deficit is every bit as corrosive as budget and trade deficits.
As economist Luigi Zingales of the University of Chicago concludes in his recent book, A Capitalism
for the People, American capitalism has become a victim of its own success. In the years after
the demise of communism, "the intellectual hegemony of capitalism, however, led to complacency
and extremism: complacency through the degeneration of the system, extremism in the application
of its ideological premises," he writes. "'Greed is good' became the norm rather than the frowned-upon
exception. Capitalism lost its moral higher ground."
Many elite professionals are deeply upset with Trump's win. Yet the ideology that he represents
is very much in line with the logic of corporate raiders, many of whom, like him, went to Wharton
Business School. And many elite professionals, in particular lawyers and consultants, profited handsomely
from the adoption of the buccaneer capitalist view of the world and actively enabled much of its
questionable thinking and conduct. As CEO pay rose, so to did the pay of top advisers. They couldn't
be all that good, after all, if they were in a wildy different income strata.
So as Lambert has warned, unless we hear a different economic and social vision from The Resistance,
which looks troubling to have more failed Democratic party influence behind it than either of us
like, the best we are likely to get is a restoration. And if you remember the French Revolution,
strongman Napoleon was succeeded by the Bourbon Restoration, which then led to the Second Empire
under his nephew. So if we want better outcomes, status quo ante is not good enough.
I beg to differ. First, you ignore the fact that equity is a residual claim. Everyone else comes
first. Every party that holds more senior instruments than equity, along with other parties that
have enforceable claims, like the IRS and those with solid contracts that would give them the rights
to damages in certain circumstances, have rights that are more enforceable under the law. You can't
overturn that via exchange rules.
Second, Amar Bhide explained in the Harvard Business Review in 1994 why public companies will
always have deficient governance. My recap of his main points:
Disenfranchised shareholders are an inherent feature of liquid stock markets. In 1994, Amar
Bhide argued in a Harvard Business Review article that efficient equity markets inevitably led
inevitably to deficient corporate governance. Bhide explained that an ambiguous promise like equity
is not suitable to be traded on an arm's length basis. Historically, equity investors typically
acted like venture capitalists: they knew the owners personally and were involved in the company's
affairs. The securities laws of 1933 and 1934 tried to make it safe for distant, transient shareholders
to invest by providing for timely, audited financial statements, disclosure of information about
top executives and board members, and prohibiting insider trading and other forms of market manipulation.
But that turns out to be inadequate. No outsider can be told enough to make an informed judement
about a company's prospects; critical information, like acquisition and plans for new products,
must be kept secret until well advanced because they are competitively sensitive. Boards are protected
from liability by directors' and officers' insurance (plus hardly anyone even bothers pursuing
board members. For instance, have any Lehman board members been sued?). Moreover, only a comparatively
small cohort of people are deemed public-company-board worthy. Their incentives are to make nice
in their community and not rock the boat, which means not making life difficult for the CEOs,
since a nominating committee (of the current board) is responsible for nominating directors, which
means the entire process is incestuous.
This system has been fairly impervious to outside challenge. Once in a while, a company is
so abysmally run that an activist investor will take up a proxy fight. But that dog seldom catches
the car; instead, they might get a bad CEO to exit or force a restructuring. The stock trades
up and the rabble-rousers take their winnings and depart. More polite efforts, even by large,
powerful shareholders, are much less effective. For instance, some major institutional investors
met with Goldman to object to the idea that the firm would pay lavish bonuses for 2009. The session
appears to have had no impact.
Main categories of complain about "Maximize Shareholder Value":
Category 1 – Other things should get more weight alongside shareholder value – e.g. societal
responsibility – this is valid, but not our current topic/issue.
Category 2- Current practices aren't leading to the election of smart, capable BOD members
acting primarily for shareholder value in their decision-making including hiring/fire of executives
and voting on their proposals. This shown by, among other things, the very high levels of executive
compensation relative to profit, the lack of correlation between executive compensation and profit,
and the huge severance packages for released executives. This is my topic – what would improve
that.
Your points don't seem to fall in those categories. Seniority of debtto equity is a respected
feature of the common business landscape, not normally thought of as a problem. Lack of complete
information when voting on corporate actions is also a feature of the corporate setup – representational
government. It doesn't stand in the way of the possibility of smart, conscientious executives.
Other issues like cronyism, bad BODs, etc. are in the way, poor rules, poor communication, lack
of interest by short term stakeholders, etc. are viewed as much more problematic.
You are omitting a key point in the post, which is that seeking to maximize shareholder value
results in lower returns for shareholders. It is empirically a bad idea.
There are many views as to why this is so, but the biggest are likely the short-termism and
obliquity. Electing more outspoken board members won't solve that.
My narrower point was addressing why this notion had never been enshrined in any corporate
charter: it would be seen as created undue conflicts regarding directors making sure clearly senior
obligations are met. Again, under very well settled law, directors and officers have duties of
loyalty and care to the corporation, and those take precedence to serving shareholders. Go read
any law firm guide to director duties.
One picky point: the analogy to Bonaparte really doesn't hold up. We haven't had our French
Revolution yet. And I'm rusty on my nineteenth century French history, but I don't think there's
much of a valid comparison between him and Trump anyway. "Strong man" is way too vague. Whatever
is going on with Trump, he's not a brilliant military tactician and strategist moving into a power
vacuum from inside the existing government.
Agree about the "Resistance." But I don't see how the corporate Democrats return to power at
this point - I mean real, governing power. Whatever comes next, it won't be that.
I don't know yet whether to hope for oaths on tennis courts or not. That's a really, really
last resort, obviously. These people running around punching alt-right Teen Beat cover boys and
breaking windows are either fools or something worse.
Also, it's nice to have data to go with my loathing of this "theory." I feel like we need a
different word for this stuff, though. All these intersecting economic beliefs that are not based
in facts and are easily repudiated by facts can't really be called theories, can they? They're
more like belief systems. They were never really about figuring out something about reality. They
were always about manipulating behavior through assertion to get desired outcomes, weren't they?
I think that you seriously underestimate Trump. Napoleon excelled in an environment where military success was primary; Trump excels in a mediated
environment where PR and imagery are primary. IMVHO, there are some eerie parallels between the
two men; whether you like them or not, both men could be characterized by: ambition, vision, vindictiveness,
and a willingness obliterate traditional social and political boundaries.
I thought this was particularly brilliant:
Many elite professionals are deeply upset with Trump's win. Yet the ideology that he
represents is very much in line with the logic of corporate raiders, many of whom, like him,
went to Wharton Business School. And many elite professionals, in particular lawyers and consultants,
profited handsomely from the adoption of the buccaneer capitalist view of the world and actively
enabled much of its questionable thinking and conduct.
That Wharton Business School model is oblivious to the human needs for: fairness, reciprocity,
culture, and the need to penalize duplicity. (I would argue that the Wharton model exalts duplicity,
if only to pass it off as some kind of exceptional superpower wielded only by Business Elites.)
When you corrode trust, you damage economies.
Trump is the apotheosis of neoliberal economics + junk-bond fueled casino empires in a media
environment that worships 'shareholder value' and has lost sight of what genuinely creates sustainable
value over the long term.
Isn't this just a side effect of optimization for one variable? And which variable to optimize
is a question of governance? Since the invention of quantifiable economy, and the move from haggling
to fixed price, particularly since the invention of monetary valuation in place of barter the
mathematics becomes relentless to get the last drop of blood out of whatever turnip you are
squeezing. And the invention of spreadsheets makes it that much easier to lean toward the quantitative,
over the qualitative. We saw a similar process in "value engineering" in automotive engineering
in that case to get the last ounce of weight out of the car, in order to optimize mileage, regardless
of less quantifiable values.
Awesome article. Great explanation of how wall street orchestrated casino capitalism controls
today's economy, and in a manner that is detrimental to everyone but the casino operators. Milton
Friedman's perverse views on "free markets", have turned the economy into a casino, first by destroying
the controls on the money supply, and then by destroying corporate governance and responsibility.
And we all know who makes all the money in any casino operation.
Agree, awesome article. And interesting Clearpoint addition that the Street has every incentive
to orchestrate volatility, to the detriment of many firms' greatest stakeholders, the neglected
employees.
This question is of central importance, I only wish you'd find reason to bring it up more often.
It raises another important question, although one that cannot be addressed so neatly: why has
the capitalist project tended to turn away from long term commitments to profit-seeking through
the production of (material) commodities?
Was Friedman's short-termist view simply foolish, a
mistake that has had very damaging impact but which can be reversed?
Or, was it an idea that somehow
picked up on declining opportunities for profit via sales of commodities, as writers like Amin
and Harvey variously argue?
Or - and the article skips over this - did Friedman capture the growing
political aggressiveness of capital, as capital gradually overcame the Great Fear of the 30s and
prepared to mount, as Streeck has argued, a counteroffensive against the constraints of welfare
capitalism? Likely all of the above, but in what proportions?
A lot of corporate governance is controlled by legal decisions.
These legal decisions are rendered by judges.
Future judges are well-socialized into free market views long before they ever hear cases or render
judgments. We are seeing this trend continue with the current SCOTUS nomination in the hands of
a GOP controlled Congress.
Some of these people truly believe that 'free markets' can somehow 'improve and perfect' Human
Nature. (See also: Ayn Rand, 'John Galt', Alan Greenspan) In other words, it's has more than a
whiff of Nietzsche's 'Uber-man' ideology in the mix. It's an ideal system for equating human worth
with net worth, and justifying vast inequalities in money and power.
Thus does the snake swallow its tail.
These judges fail to notice there is a large bump somewhere in the snake's body; at some point,
it ate the Golden Goose, and is slowly digesting.
This does not directly mention the "increase shareholder value" action of a company buying
its own stock.
That should be viewed as a red-flag admission from the senior executives that the company doing
a share buyback does not see a way to grow its markets, does not see suitable investments for
R&D. sees no pressing need to improve corporate infrastructure, sees no reason to train their
workers, and can't find suitable acquisitions that would enhance their business.
Effectively, the management team has scoured the globe searching for the best use of their
spare cash, and, surprisingly, determined that one financial security, THEIR own company's stock,
was the best use of the corporation's cash.
A share buyback plan could be viewed as a warning shot indicating that management lacks ideas
and is poorly managing the corporation.
Instead it falls under a "increase shareholder value" tactic.
+1. Used as an attempt to ward off a hostile takeover stock buybacks might be justifiable.
Mostly, however, this usually looks like a simple attempt to prop up prices.
It is that acme of Liberalism, Warren Buffett that created this fad. At a time when corporate dividends were taxed as ordinary income, whereas a stock price bump
would be tax deferred - and ultimately taxed at long term capital gains rates - the scheme was
merely tax avoidance. Warren Buffett's entire empire is based on this and other tax avoidence schemes.
Then, coupled with stock options for corporate management, the path was set.
Common criticisms of "Maximize Shareholder Value: 1) Should give more weight to something else
– e.g. societal concerns. 2) Execs – prioritize other things; 3) BOD's prioritize other things,
including their personal relationship to execs. Improving corporate governance can, in theory,
setup procedures and rules to fix 2) and 3) by making sure BOD's in publicly listed corporations
really have the legal power, and by making elections more open, including the selection of the
initial selection of BOD candidates. However, this still requires interest from a majority of
voting shareholders – it would be better to ask people not interested to not vote at all. (I tried
to thread this comment as a reply above but it repeatedly disappeared).
For a UK example of a company choosing not to maximise shareholder value, the disastrous acquisition
of HBOS by Lloyds is instructive. Management claimed to be looking through the (ridiculously underestimated)
short-term issues to the resulting long-term competitive advantages which the government assured
them (falsely) wouldn't subsequently be challenged.
Of the c95% acceptances supporting this lunatic
deal, some proportion of the institutional shareholders must have been idiots, a few must have
feared for the stability of the banking system were the deal rejected, and a great many must also
have been HBOS bondholders
"But CEOs recognized how the newly-installed leaders of LBO acquisitions got rich through stock
awards or option-type compensation. They wanted a piece of the action. "
The maximize shareholder value ideology in practice looks like maximize CEO compensation and
to heck with the company's long term prospects. imo.
I doubt that any of the CEOs which have said that they are being pressurized to short-termism
are actually willing this stupid concept to be removed considering they are the prime benefactor
of this.
I believe that supermacy of shareholders interest was originally adopted because they were bearing
risk. Shares being an illiquid asset were supposed to be a source of income not capital gain.
Due to this shareholders were forced to ensure that short-termism is avoided and corporate governance
is adequate. Things started to reverse slowly as liquidity of shares increased gradually.
Presently,
when shares can be sold in seconds of owning them, risk a share-holder bear is greatly lower
than they beared a century ago. Also , shares are bought for capital gain not income.
Considering
relationship between share's liquidity and short-termism , any measure which reduces share's liquidity,
for example a high tax on short term capital gain, will greatly reduce both short-termism and
corporate governance issues as share holders will be forced to assume the risk they were supposed
to bear in exchange of supermacy of their interest.
1. Profit – Objective: to achieve sufficient profit to finance our company growth and to provide
the resources we need to achieve our other objectives
2. Customers- Objective: To provide products and services of the greatest possible value to
our customers, thereby gaining and holding their respect and loyalty.
3. Fields of Interest- Objective: To enter new fields only when the ideas we have, together
with our technical, manufacturing and marketing skills, assure that we can make a needed and profitable
contribution to the field.
4. Growth – Objective: To let our growth be limited only by our profits and our ability to
develop and produce technical products that satisfy real customer needs.
5. Our people: Objective: To help HP people share in the company's success, which they make
possible; to provide job security based on their performance; to recognize their individual achievements;
and to insure the personal satisfaction that comes from a sense of accomplishment in their work
6. Management- Objective: To foster initiative and creativity by allowing the individual great
freedom of action in attaining well-defined objectives,
7. Citizenship – Objective: To honor our obligations to society by being an economic, intellectual
and social asset to each nation and each community in which we operate.
*****
Note, Hewett and Packard, themselves, may have owned 40-50% of the company stock at this time,
so they had great control of the company's direction at this time.
No corporate objective about shareholder value even though they were very large shareholders.
Yes, but. I remember someone from UMichigan business school (Gary Hamel, I think) speaking
to a group of top 2% Ford Motor Co. execs in the late 1980s. He asked, "Come on, guys how many
of you were thinking about shareholder value in the shower this morning?" The room laughed, but
one pudgy hand in the back went up. It belonged to Edsel Ford.
This takes us back, HP was so honest it almost sounds quaint. And 1974 was just before Reagan's
supply side economics stuff in the aftermath of the awful stagflation that hit us after Vietnam.
According to Paul Craig Roberts, supply side was embraced because it was thought to prevent inflation
(wage price spiral) and still provide sufficient jobs and products.
He goes on to say that supply-side/trickle-down
was a reasonable idea but it was hijacked by Wall Street who took it to heart and then used it
to justify offshoring jobs to enhance corporate profits, and eventually shareholder value. Because,
as PCR puts it, Wall Street forced companies to get lean and competitive and if they didn't nobody
invested in them: aka no shareholders if no timely shareholder value. So it was almost an extortion
racket. This was accompanied by all the corporate raiders and the real prosperity of the country
was quickly retarded and siphoned off. Great post, thanks Yves.
I have a rather naive question which I should have asked long ago in my one and only finance
class at college. Why does it matter if a share price drops all other things being equal? A company
sells shares, effectively handing out "residual claims" against cold, hard cash. If the cash is
invested in a business – and assuming the business is at least "break-even" plus the risk-free
rate of return- other than investor panic and CEO's getting "refreshed" stock options, why would
this matter?
Some reasons are frequently given for preferring a high stock price.
1. A low share price encourages others to acquire the company
2. A high price is good when stock is used as currency to buy other companies.
3. Executive compensation schemes are sometimes tied to stock price.
But if a company is not selling stock to fund current operations, then the stock price could
go to zero with no operational effect. The employees who own stock would not be pleased. However,
an apparent artificially low price could help with hiring new employees who may be granted low
priced options.
Occasionally I see someone claiming a company is being killed by short sellers driving the
stock price down. I don't see how this could damage the ongoing operations or cash flow EXCEPT
if the company is selling stock to fund operations or is trying to make a truly worthwhile acquisition
with their stock.
If a company is doing well and cash flow positive and short sellers drive the stock price down
too low, the company should use their cash to buy their shares and squeeze the shorts.
In the case of Hewlett-Packard there was no official stock price set by the investment community
for years, as the company waited a few years before doing an IPO.
The company was founded in 1939 and IPO'ed eighteen years later in 1957.
Imagine, operating for 18 years without Wall Street supervision.
Agreed with your point and John Wright's explanation. The idea that a stock price must be high
is dogma that is never questioned. The big reason is for concern re a low stock price is it is
seen as the market voting against management and an invitation for raiders to take the company
over.
But otherwise, if a company can raise enough money to fund expansion through its own cash flow
(which is the biggest source of investment fund) and debt (the next biggest source), there is
no reason to issue more stock (save your point re employee/executive stock options) and hence
no reason to care regarding the price.
Equity is a form of HPM these days, for C-corps, which can be used as a tool of pleasure [c-suite
bonuses et al] or a weapon of destruction [excuse for diminishing labour and the enviroment].
disheveled . the religion of free markets has become the dominate meme in society and those
that benefit the most from it . wellie see history .
I'm struggling with the short termism argument. The cash flows from equity don't have a maturity.
Bonds due. If a company sought to maximize bond holder value, they would minimize risk (and R&D)
to make sure sufficient funds were available to pay the bond holders. Equity maximization should
be longer term focused than the maximization of limited life securities.
While it has damaged corporate social responsibilities and banks' and corporations' long-term
financial stability, actions taken pursuant to the Shareholder Value optimization model have served
well many individuals on Wall Street, at private equity firms, CEOs of large publicly traded corporations,
hedge funds, networked board members, their academic and professional servicers, and the political
elite
Reflecting back on developments like the dotcom bubble of 1999-2000; the underlying causes
of the financial collapse of 2007-09; massive debt-leveraged corporate stock buybacks; socially
damaging private equity LBOs; the current volumes of opaque OTC derivatives at large financial
institutions; repeated episodes of environmental damage caused by firms in extractive industries
seeking short-term financial returns; and the license it provides to exert power over legislation
and regulation by those who own and control these corporations in a Citizens United legal
framework; etc., it is difficult to see much in the way of redeeming social value in this corporate
governance model.
Topical article highlighting a way to subvert corporate governance: Corrupt US govt. supports
secret oil company payments/bribes to corrupt foreign govts., whose autocratic leaders may be
major shareholders in the oil company too.
Not by usury maybe, but wealth came to Renaissance Italy through use of interest , hitherto
prohibited. And advances in book keeping. This wealth financed the great artists mentioned by
Pound.
Thanks for this post. I always found the notion of "maximizing shareholder value" to be very
strange, and counter to common sense. The concept of "stakeholders" always made more sense. For
a company to be managed with a focus on the wellbeing of workers, customers, and community, in
addition to owners, struck me as being obviously the way it should work. (And sometimes does.)
The idea that parties who happen to own a share of the company should have their interests
served above all is counter intuitive, as employees will almost always have a greater stake in
the company than any individual owner, if shares are widely distributed.
If you think of an sole proprietor who ventures forth to do business who has made clear to
all that his interests are paramount in any transaction, I do not envision customers flocking
to such an individual.
The apparent lack of basic decency in corporate/management decisions that we see so often is
just hard to reconcile with how most of us intuitively feel about how we see ourselves in the
context of our community: most people have a significant level of self interest, but we are always
aware of the need to consider the interests of others when we act. Even for something as basic
as waiting in line for something.
Somehow people at the elite levels of, finance for example, feel quite OK about heavily prioritizing
their own interest above all.
As someone not privy to this social realm, I am just mystified about the social dynamics that,
if not encourage this, at least consider it a fine way to do business.
In a small example, from my personal experience, I am a professional user of audio software
from Avid. Avid has been losing money year after year. Over the past five years the company as
taken actions that have outraged the user base, far more than any other software company I know
of. Their forum is over run with vitriolic ranting, from longtime customers. (In fairness, this
has abated a bit, as the company has finally been making moves that are sensible, and that meet
the needs of the users.)
There have been several rounds of significant layoffs, and the frontline workers bear the brunt
of the customers wrath. Morale has been low.
In conversation, a previous employee told me he considered management to be white collar criminals,
who were looting the company.
This type of product has a unique feature of having very strong platform lock-in effects. In
few other product categories would you see such angry customers continue to buy the products.
Yet the board has been approving generous compensation increases for C level management, and
for themselves for the past few years.
I'm fascinated from an everyday, social point of view, how the board and management make these
decisions. Do they really think they are doing a good job? From the outside, it appears to me
that they do it simply because they can, and have little concern for the long term well being
of any of the other stakeholdes.
Does anyone here have insight about the social dynamics that enable this behavior?
This is something I'd welcome some insights on too as I find certain behaviours and attitudes
impossible to understand.
Is it simple greed, stupidity, cynicism, groupthink, false consciousness, sociopathy, the
'attractions' of a certain lifestyle, daddy-didn't-love-them-enough or what that leads certain
types to behave the ways they do and seek to justify it? If they acted with a degree
of shame or embarrassment, or even full on chutzpah , I'd understand them more, but it's
the ordinary types, those who outwardly seem to be of the same species as oneself and otherwise
appear to be perfectly normal people that I just don't understand. I can believe almost anything
of them, except for the possibility that they actually, genuinely, believe that they are on the
right side of things.
I have similar brain fade when it comes to much of what politicians of the Right have to say
on most things. So often, and try as I might, I just can't understand how supposedly sentient
beings can honestly believe the drivel they come out with, still less have the brass-neck to stand
up in public and display just how effing stupid and cynical they are. Feel much the same about
all shades of politician but it's far worse on the Right.
"... Cross posted from the Institute for New Economic Thinking website ..."
"... Steve Bannon, Chief Strategist and Senior Counselor to President Trump is a prominent proponent of the theory. As a documentary filmmaker Bannon discussed the details of Strauss-Howe generational theory in Generation Zero. According to historian David Kaiser, who was consulted for the film, Generation Zero "focused on the key aspect of their theory, the idea that every 80 years American history has been marked by a crisis, or 'fourth turning', that destroyed an old order and created a new one". Kaiser said Bannon "is very familiar with Strauss and Howe's theory of crisis, and has been thinking about how to use it to achieve particular goals for quite a while." A February 2017 article from Business Insider titled: Steve Bannon's obsession with a dark theory of history should be worrisome commented "Bannon seems to be trying to bring about the 'Fourth Turning'." ..."
"... no sh*t, Sherlock ..."
"... Wealth and Democracy ..."
"... However, reading about the recent Gini index leads me to believe that either our preference for inequality is changing [probably not the case, given Trump], or our history is outrunning our preferences. ..."
"... early 1980's TRUMP SWAMP WHISTLE-BLOWER WAYNE BARRET (RIP)? https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/19/business/media/wayne-barrett-dead-village-voice-columnist.html ..."
"... What socio-econ OU ..."
"... Cross posted from the Institute for New Economic Thinking website ..."
"... Steve Bannon, Chief Strategist and Senior Counselor to President Trump is a prominent proponent of the theory. As a documentary filmmaker Bannon discussed the details of Strauss-Howe generational theory in Generation Zero. According to historian David Kaiser, who was consulted for the film, Generation Zero "focused on the key aspect of their theory, the idea that every 80 years American history has been marked by a crisis, or 'fourth turning', that destroyed an old order and created a new one". Kaiser said Bannon "is very familiar with Strauss and Howe's theory of crisis, and has been thinking about how to use it to achieve particular goals for quite a while." A February 2017 article from Business Insider titled: Steve Bannon's obsession with a dark theory of history should be worrisome commented "Bannon seems to be trying to bring about the 'Fourth Turning'." ..."
"... no sh*t, Sherlock ..."
"... Wealth and Democracy ..."
"... However, reading about the recent Gini index leads me to believe that either our preference for inequality is changing [probably not the case, given Trump], or our history is outrunning our preferences. ..."
"... early 1980's TRUMP SWAMP WHISTLE-BLOWER WAYNE BARRET (RIP)? https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/19/business/media/wayne-barrett-dead-village-voice-columnist.html ..."
"... What socio-econ OUTCOMES have resulted in even PAMPLIN MEDIA GROUP ..."
"... and the so-called alternative weeklies who only make news hole available for Lifestyle features on the new Wellness Spa, Tattoo Parlor or Booze\Gourmet venture ..."
"... Mitch Ritter\Paradigm Shifters Lay-Low Studios, Ore-Wa Media Discussion Group ..."
"... TCOMES have resulted in even PAMPLIN MEDIA GROUP ..."
"... and the so-called alternative weeklies who only make news hole available for Lifestyle features on the new Wellness Spa, Tattoo Parlor or Booze\Gourmet venture ..."
"... Mitch Ritter\Paradigm Shifters Lay-Low Studios, Ore-Wa Media Discussion Group ..."
Posted on
February 4, 2017
by
Yves Smith
Yves here. Both economists and the press do such a good job of selling the idea
that inequality is the fault of those who come out on the short end of the
stick that academics need to develop empirical evidence to prove what ought to
be intuitively obvious.
The fact that most of the fruits of US economic growth have not been
shared with the lower-middle and working class is accepted across the
political spectrum in America. But that inequality is often treated as a
somehow inevitable consequence of globalization and technological change.
That view is contradicted by the comparison of income growth and
distribution statistics between the US and three others rich countries,
France, Norway and the UK - according to new research by Max Roser and
Stefan Thewissen of the Institute for New Economic Thinking at Oxford.
Writing in Vox on the database they've constructed, Roser and Thewissen
note:
"We compare the evolution of the income an individual needs to be right
at the 10th percentile of the income distribution to the evolution of the
income of an individual at the 90th percentile. We call these two groups the
'poor' and the 'rich.' We can then look at how much incomes grew for the
poor and the rich in absolute terms as well as relative to each other - and
thereby assess the extent to which growth was widely shared. We measure
income after taxes and transfers, and adjust for differences in prices over
time and across countries using inflation and purchasing power information.
Our database can be accessed online, with more information on our exact
measure and data for other countries."
The US performs poorly by comparison to these countries, for reasons that
may have more to do with structure, institutions and policy. Roser and
Thewissen conclude:
"The differences we have identified across countries and time imply that
increased globalization and technological change cannot be blamed as sole
causes for rising inequality. Those forces work across borders and should
affect all countries. The fact that other developed countries have been able
to share the benefits of these market forces suggests that policy choices on
the national level play a central role for boosting living standards.
Policies can make a difference not just in growth levels, but also in who
gets the benefits of that growth."
The intuitively obvious, should be taken as axiomatic. Like two points
determine a single line. When you start out from an unequal position (not like
at the start of a foot race) it is unclear who to blame, for the one person
who crosses the finish line first vs the losers. And much of life is "first
across the finish line". Also since in this case, the winner of the last race,
gets an advantage on the next starting line the unequal advantage tends to
accumulate. Life is unfair. The point is to maintain the status quo, statically
and dynamically. Those who have advantages today, continue to have them, as
white collar US workers and even blue collar US workers used to. The previous
winners continue to win these unequal contests, but the number of happy workers
gets fewer and fewer. This is why Trump voters the benefits of inequality are
now being shared less equally ;-) The purpose of government is to benefit the
status quo. Therefore policy doesn't offer substantive way out. Change will
occur but only when the current status quo maintenance system fails.
Conclusion: like the game of Musical Chairs there is no change until the
music stops, and someone different can't find a chair to sit in. But it is less
fun in real life.
Unfortunately many in the current generation are content to play the
little pig, in Charlotte's Web. They forget where McDonald's McRib comes
from. Again, children's culture is illustrative and simplified.
I wouldn't underestimate "many in the current generation" –
especially among those who don't have the "divided baggage" of the
generations that preceded them. Due to purposely recirculated
historical circumstances aligned with modern "evolution," it may not
be as easy for power to continue to "manipulate and control."
In this fear-mongering film, conservatives like Gingrich put a
spin on the power of the "elite" destroying the middle class in a
revisionist approach (although they are quick to point out that
both parties are captured by global corporations). The future:
austerity, deregulation and 20 years of chaos (with probable war)
ahead of us.
The film revolves around the Strauss-Howe generational theory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory
Steve Bannon, Chief Strategist and Senior Counselor to
President Trump is a prominent proponent of the theory. As a
documentary filmmaker Bannon discussed the details of Strauss-Howe
generational theory in Generation Zero. According to historian
David Kaiser, who was consulted for the film, Generation Zero
"focused on the key aspect of their theory, the idea that every 80
years American history has been marked by a crisis, or 'fourth
turning', that destroyed an old order and created a new one".
Kaiser said Bannon "is very familiar with Strauss and Howe's theory
of crisis, and has been thinking about how to use it to achieve
particular goals for quite a while." A February 2017 article from
Business Insider titled: Steve Bannon's obsession with a dark
theory of history should be worrisome commented "Bannon seems to be
trying to bring about the 'Fourth Turning'."
When I was first exposed to Strauss and Howe I began thinking
how their ideas explained the histories of other countries as
well, and during our interview, I mentioned that crises in
countries like France in the 1790s and Russia after 1917 had led
to reigns of terror. Bannon included those remarks in the final
cut of Generation Zero.
A second, more alarming, interaction did not show up in the
film. Bannon had clearly thought a long time both about the
domestic potential and the foreign policy implications of
Strauss and Howe. More than once during our interview, he
pointed out that each of the three preceding crises had involved
a great war, and those conflicts had increased in scope from the
American Revolution through the Civil War to the Second World
War. He expected a new and even bigger war as part of the
current crisis, and he did not seem at all fazed by the
prospect.
I did not agree, and said so. But, knowing that the history of
international conflict was my own specialty, he repeatedly
pressed me to say we could expect a conflict at least as big as
the Second World War in the near or medium term. I refused.
Apocalyptic rhetoric and apocalyptic thinking flourish during
crisis periods. This represents perhaps the biggest danger of
the Trump presidency, and one that will bear watching from all
concerned citizens in the months and years ahead.
Thanks for the information. I'm aware of the madman's "movie"
and his authoritarian ideology. He and his commander-of-thieves
will continue to unravel right before our eyes. Many lives will
continue to be severely impacted by these hateful, selfish,
abusive throwbacks from "central casting."
Every day there is a race you have to run. For the sake of discussion,
let's call it a 100 yard race.
The participants are called and then evaluated by the judges. Starting
points for the race are then determined. If you are particularly comely, you
are given an advantage: that is, your starting point is moved up depending
on the judges. If you have a personality that people find attractive, you
are given further yards. If you happen to have had great success in school,
you are awarded so many yards because of your academic record. If you happen
to be good looking and personable, the academic success yards are added onto
your already determined starting point.
Then the quality and reputation of your educational institution is
evaluated and you are given further yards to determine starting points with
certain schools worth a better starting position. And even the type of
training at the institution is evaluated and further yards given.
Finally the judges add your total experiences – including your finishing
position in previous races – advanced degrees, and connections and further
yards are added.
So when the gun sounds, the person without the advantages strives as hard
as they can but they cannot win the race because some people only have to
simply step over the finish line.
And even more troubling some people are moved behind the starting line
because they could not even muster the necessary accomplishments to reach
the starting line: drop outs from school, people who have been convicted of
crimes and the rest. The worse the offense, the further you are moved behind
the starting line.
Every day this continues and those striving to win – even running faster
and harder than their competitors – are simply unable to do so because the
rules are such that winning is not even a consideration when the race is
rigged.
The factors are certainly at work in inequality. Some of those factors
can either be mitigated or compensated for by the individual and/or the
social system.
There are other structural factors that influence inequality. Family
connections, inherited wealth, and other forms of social capital that can
make advancement easier is one. Savings and investment patterns that can
be engaged in to varying degrees depending on just how much surplus
income one has is another.
The social and political system in the US generally favors vigorous
competition, private self-dealing, and asymmetric information.
Individuals who learn to navigate these factors can prosper, while those
who either can't or don't want to can suffer significant disadvantages in
outcomes. The influence of these structural factors in any social system
influences the degree of income/wealth stratification.
In my own family, many of the starting social factors are fairly equal
among the individuals. Even though my various relatives have not
necessarily made "bad" choices in the moral sense, their outcomes have
been vastly different. The degree to which they have chosen to engagein
income/wealth maximization has generally been a large factor. In that
sense, the game is rigged away from living what many consider a humane
life.
You mean people actually got paid to research and write stuff like this? You
simply have to look at the (re)distribution policies of the countries concerned
– and there are substantial differences between the three of them, by the way.
Wouldn't a much more interesting question be "By what mechanism does
globalization necessarily increase inequality, and how does it work precisely
in a number of contrasted cases"? But then you might get the wrong answer.
No kidding – kind of amazing that people get paid good money to restate
the obvious, but using sesquipedalian language just to make it more
difficult to understand.
Inequality is caused by one group not having as much money as another.
Money is simply a tool created by human beings. Much like a hammer, human
beings could use it to build houses for everyone or to bash others about the
head. We humans seem to prefer the latter use.
The people paid to prove the obvious are far outnumbered by those paid to
disprove it. We need the former because of the latter.
On the other hand, there are many cases where the obvious turned out to be
wrong when it was looked at carefully. More research needed!
We're in a world where politicians get paid to lie about these obvious
things and legislate based on those lies, and businesses make their profits
off the lies, so I can't get too exercised when someone gets paid to point
out the lies.
"Forces." Really? "Globalization" and "technological change" are things
humans do for human reasons. To treat them as "forces" somehow exogenous to
human choices is self-evidently fallacious. It's precisely the same logic that
says the King is the King cause God likes him best.
They're not "forces." They are heuristics. And as heuristics, they are
pretty lousy unless you parse them quite a bit. Obama's 1 trillion dollar
investment in nukes creates "technological change." The destruction of local
agricultural techniques and knowledge is "technological change." A kindle is
"technological change." Keyword searches readily available to academic
researchers was a big "technological change."
I'm assuming what they mean by "technological change" here is the sort that
allows us to collectively make more stuff with less work. God forbid anyone
spell that out though. Because "hey, guess what: you have to work more for less
because we can now make more stuff with less work," would quickly lead to the
violent demise of economists and rich people. (more to say on "globalization"
but this post is already way longer than intended.)
Germany should have been included in the study. German manufacturing is far
more technologically advanced than manufacturing in the US, yet Germany manages
to maintain high employment in that sector, probably because the companies
invest in worker training and feel some obligation toward labor.
There's a structural reason for this, with labor having powerful
representation on German corporate boards and smaller companies being owned by
families instead of faceless shareholders, with the families' long-term
interests naturally more in alignment with those of their employees.
Actually, I thought the inclusion of France and the UK was a bit strange,
as well. Inequality in both countries has been increasingly massively in
recent years. One Thomas Piketty even wrote something on the topic, if I'm
not mistaken. Japan would have been a much better example.
I think it kind of makes the point, if even a country that isn't
exactly known for egalitarianism, like the UK, is doing better than the
U.S. it kind of shows how extreme on the scale the U.S. is.
Contrary to elite owned and serving mass media claims, the trick that
created the German economic miracle is no mystery; it was, and IS, their
banking system.
In Germany more than 70% of all banking is done by "municipally owned
banks"!!!
A situation that the elites – masters of the universe -have been working day
and night to drastically alter so that their "too big to fail" minion zombie
banks can take complete AND total control of the economy, as they have in
most of the developed world except North Dakota, Canada (Canada owns the
Bank of Canada – the Finance Minister holds all the shares on behalf of all
Canadians), and Switzerland (Switzerland has Cantonal {municipally or
provincially} owned banks) – all three countries, like the German
municipally owned banks, are under attack by the elite serving bureaucrats
in the IMF and the U.S. Federal Reserve; all of whom are owned by, and
minions of, Wall Street; and most importantly the corporate bought and sold
world's university economics departments – co-opted to right agenda faux
economic B.S.
The U.S. Federal Reserve now donates more money to universities worldwide
than all of the rest of the donors combined!?! The proviso on these
donations is that they only hire economics profs who have been published in
one of the 37 journals published by the U.S. Federal Reserve – and we know
what kind of right agenda 'fascist' mumbo-jumbo these minion economists are
dedicated to serving up in order to get published by the U.S. Fed!!!
So what you say!! Well here's so what!
If you are in any other developed country than Germany and you have a great
idea/product and require a one million dollar loan to build a factory and
set up production – here's what happens to you. Your local banks will never
lend you that money, so you have to go to the criminal Big Banks which will
also never lend you the money you need, which means you will have to sell
your idea/product at pennies on the dollar to one of their huge corporate
clients, who will offshore production to a corrupted third world country
where workers get paid pennies an hour and unions are considered a criminal
enterprise. Leaving you, the creator of the product or service with pennies
on the dollar; and leaving your local economy with zero economic growth and
no well paid local employment opportunities. The corporate buyer of your
technology/product/idea may well just kill your product because it is better
than the (inferior) one they are currently making bags of money selling –
for which they have just eliminated your innovative and superior competitive
product.
If you are in Germany however the story is far different. In Germany you
would go to your local municipally owned bank which is only too happy to
give you the one million dollars you need to set up production (locally
providing employment and contributing to local economic prosperity).
This is the basis for the strength of the German economy and the reason for
the so called ":German economic miracle?"!
It is described as a "miracle" not because we have no idea how it happened,
rather because the elites who own more than 80% of all corporate shares need
to confuse us plebs they want to economically and politically crush!
American wealth inequality is a political problem? Well,
no sh*t,
Sherlock
.
Kevin Phillips wrote about this phenomenon a decade ago in his wonderful
book
Wealth and Democracy
. Between 1920 and 1980, American plutocrats
had been placed in fear by the Bolshevik revolution, humbled by the Great
Depression, and shamed by the Second World War. Greed was in check. Then they
died-off and left their wealth to a new generation more interested in emulating
Mick Jagger than Dwight D. Eisenhower. Ronnie Reagan was their Hollywood pal,
who cut estate and coupon-clipping taxes so that they could party like rock
stars.
Crass punks like Donald Trump and the Kochs are the scions of inherited
wealth and Studio 54. They could never have made it on their own, on their own
talents, and it is in their class interest to destroy any sort of meritocracy.
They have used materialism and greed to buy the political class.
Look up Geert Hofstede's work on "power distance," which is the extent to
which a nation accepts inequality.
According to Hofstede, countries have different "tastes" or preferences for
inequality. For example, the Middle East, parts of S America, India, and other
parts of Asia have a much bigger "taste" for inequality compared to, say, the
Scandinavian countries, which have the lowest.
I would guess that differences in preferences for inequality between
countries go back to a nation's history, and maybe other hard-to-pin down
forces and factors.
The US, according to Hofstede's work, is at the middle point, or a little
lower, as to taste for inequality. However, reading about the recent Gini index
leads me to believe that either our preference for inequality is changing
[probably not the case, given Trump], or our history is outrunning our
preferences. In other words, we may be getting more inequality than we like.
By the way, Hofstede assumes that power distance preference is a fairly
durable characteristic of a nation.
Preference?? Yes, I'm sure the mid east loves inequality, which is why
they are known for choosing dictators who quash uprisings as their leaders.
And how exactly would I choose egalitarianism here in the US? I can vote for
Wall Street and Holly Wood or Wall Street and Exxon Mobil. Which one is the
egalitarian one?
However, reading about the recent Gini index leads me to believe that
either our preference for inequality is changing [probably not the case,
given Trump], or our history is outrunning our preferences.
"
What about "power distance" (extent to which a nation accepts inequality)
interactions with "distance to power" extent to which a nation influences
the powerful.
I've been reading Robert J. Gordon's book, 'The Rise and Fall of American
Growth.' Gordon would say that American labor did well from 1870-1970 because
of the innovations that drove the economy increased everyone's productivity and
the value of their work. Since 1970, productivity has slowed down. It rose
again during the decade of the '90s but mostly for knowledge workers, thanks to
the internet, spreadsheets, etcetera, but now has continued to slow. That was a
recipe for income inequality, and for wealth inequality as well, since the rise
of digital industries has increased property values on the coasts and in select
inland cities.
Slowing productivity also increased wealth inequality by facilitating the
decline of interest rates. This helps the haves, since their assets are
suddenly more valuable.
this guy argues that productivity has been decoupled from compensation,
and that has driven the rise of inequality.
off topic, but the krugman review of the book contained the interesting
fact that, during the 1880's, wall street was 7 feet deep in manure in some
places.
Of course inequality is a political choice. Chosen by the oligarchs who buy
the politicians.
Just like every mainstream economist is choosing to make millions suffer and
die every day because excepting MMT would bruise their ego's. That is a choice
too.
I think that inequality is not a political choice directly but a consequence
of deregulation or "do nothing" policy. Reducing inequality is a policy choice.
They soon made the most of the opportunity and removed themselves from any
hard work to concentrate on "spiritual matters", i.e. any hocus-pocus they
could come up with to elevate them from the masses, e.g. rituals, fertility
rights, offering to the gods . etc and to turn the initially small tributes,
into extracting all the surplus created by the hard work of the rest.
The elites became the representatives of the gods
and they were responsible for the bounty of the earth and the harvests. As long
as all the surplus was handed over, all would be well.
Later they came up with money.
We pay you to do the work and you give it back to us when you buy things,
you live a bare subsistence existence and we take the rest.
A bare subsistence existence ensured the workers didn't die and could
reproduce, why give them anymore? The vile maxim of the masters of mankind.
Basic capitalism was how it all started in the 18th and 19th Centuries, the
poor lived in squalor and the rich lived in luxury, the same as it had always
been.
Only organised labour movements got those at the bottom a larger slice of
the pie, basic capitalism gives nothing to the people who do the work apart
from a bare subsistence existence.
The wealthy decided they needed to do away with organised labour movements
and the welfare state; it was interfering with the natural order where they
extract all the surplus.
2017 – World's eight richest people have same wealth as poorest 50%
Nearly there.
They need a bit more fine tuning at Davos.
Some of the world's workers are not living a bare subsistence existence.
Francis Fukuyama talked of the "end of history" and "liberal democracy".
Liberal democracy was the bringing together of two mutually exclusive ideas.
Economic liberalism – that enriches the few and impoverishes the many.
Democracy – that requires the support of the majority.
Trying to bring two mutually exclusive ideas together just doesn't work.
The ideas of "Economic Liberalism" came from Milton Freidman and the
University of Chicago. It was so radical they first tried it in a military
dictatorship in Chile, it wouldn't be compatible with democracy. It took death
squads, torture and terror to keep it in place, there was an ethnic cleansing
of anyone who still showed signs of any left wing thinking.
It was tried in a few other places in South America using similar
techniques. It then did succeed in a democracy but only by tricking the people
into thinking they were voting for something else, severe oppression was needed
when they found out what they were getting.
It brings extreme inequality and widespread poverty everywhere it's tested,
they decide it's a system that should be rolled out globally. It's just what
they are looking for.
Would a for-profit chain of local newspapers whose business model and
advertising is built on serving the Portland Business Alliance and Chamber of
Commerce interests hire or keep on staff any kind of investigative journalistic
team or even an individual columnist\calumnist like recently deceased
VILLAGE VOICE
early 1980's TRUMP SWAMP WHISTLE-BLOWER
WAYNE BARRET (RIP)?
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/19/business/media/wayne-barrett-dead-village-voice-columnist.html
Yves here. Both economists and the press do such a good
job of selling the idea that inequality is the fault of
those who come out on the short end of the stick that
academics need to develop empirical evidence to prove what
ought to be intuitively obvious.
The fact that most of the fruits of US economic
growth have not been shared with the lower-middle and
working class is accepted across the political spectrum
in America. But that inequality is often treated as a
somehow inevitable consequence of globalization and
technological change. That view is contradicted by the
comparison of income growth and distribution statistics
between the US and three others rich countries, France,
Norway and the UK - according to new research by Max
Roser and Stefan Thewissen of the Institute for New
Economic Thinking at Oxford. Writing in Vox on the
database they've constructed, Roser and Thewissen note:
"We compare the evolution of the income an
individual needs to be right at the 10th percentile of
the income distribution to the evolution of the income
of an individual at the 90th percentile. We call these
two groups the 'poor' and the 'rich.' We can then look
at how much incomes grew for the poor and the rich in
absolute terms as well as relative to each other - and
thereby assess the extent to which growth was widely
shared. We measure income after taxes and transfers,
and adjust for differences in prices over time and
across countries using inflation and purchasing power
information. Our database can be accessed online, with
more information on our exact measure and data for
other countries."
The US performs poorly by comparison to these
countries, for reasons that may have more to do with
structure, institutions and policy. Roser and Thewissen
conclude:
"The differences we have identified across countries
and time imply that increased globalization and
technological change cannot be blamed as sole causes
for rising inequality. Those forces work across borders
and should affect all countries. The fact that other
developed countries have been able to share the
benefits of these market forces suggests that policy
choices on the national level play a central role for
boosting living standards. Policies can make a
difference not just in growth levels, but also in who
gets the benefits of that growth."
The intuitively obvious, should be taken as axiomatic.
Like two points determine a single line. When you start
out from an unequal position (not like at the start of a
foot race) it is unclear who to blame, for the one
person who crosses the finish line first vs the losers.
And much of life is "first across the finish line". Also
since in this case, the winner of the last race, gets an
advantage on the next starting line the unequal
advantage tends to accumulate. Life is unfair. The point
is to maintain the status quo, statically and dynamically.
Those who have advantages today, continue to have them, as
white collar US workers and even blue collar US workers
used to. The previous winners continue to win these
unequal contests, but the number of happy workers gets
fewer and fewer. This is why Trump voters the benefits
of inequality are now being shared less equally ;-) The
purpose of government is to benefit the status quo.
Therefore policy doesn't offer substantive way out. Change
will occur but only when the current status quo
maintenance system fails. Conclusion: like the game of
Musical Chairs there is no change until the music stops,
and someone different can't find a chair to sit in. But it
is less fun in real life.
Unfortunately many in the current generation are
content to play the little pig, in Charlotte's Web.
They forget where McDonald's McRib comes from.
Again, children's culture is illustrative and
simplified.
I wouldn't underestimate "many in the current
generation" – especially among those who don't
have the "divided baggage" of the generations
that preceded them. Due to purposely recirculated
historical circumstances aligned with modern
"evolution," it may not be as easy for power to
continue to "manipulate and control."
In this fear-mongering film, conservatives
like Gingrich put a spin on the power of the
"elite" destroying the middle class in a
revisionist approach (although they are quick
to point out that both parties are captured by
global corporations). The future: austerity,
deregulation and 20 years of chaos (with
probable war) ahead of us.
The film revolves around the Strauss-Howe
generational theory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss%E2%80%93Howe_generational_theory
Steve Bannon, Chief Strategist and Senior
Counselor to President Trump is a prominent
proponent of the theory. As a documentary
filmmaker Bannon discussed the details of
Strauss-Howe generational theory in Generation
Zero. According to historian David Kaiser, who
was consulted for the film, Generation Zero
"focused on the key aspect of their theory,
the idea that every 80 years American history
has been marked by a crisis, or 'fourth
turning', that destroyed an old order and
created a new one". Kaiser said Bannon "is
very familiar with Strauss and Howe's theory
of crisis, and has been thinking about how to
use it to achieve particular goals for quite a
while." A February 2017 article from Business
Insider titled: Steve Bannon's obsession with
a dark theory of history should be worrisome
commented "Bannon seems to be trying to bring
about the 'Fourth Turning'."
When I was first exposed to Strauss and
Howe I began thinking how their ideas
explained the histories of other countries
as well, and during our interview, I
mentioned that crises in countries like
France in the 1790s and Russia after 1917
had led to reigns of terror. Bannon
included those remarks in the final cut of
Generation Zero.
A second, more alarming, interaction did
not show up in the film. Bannon had clearly
thought a long time both about the domestic
potential and the foreign policy
implications of Strauss and Howe. More than
once during our interview, he pointed out
that each of the three preceding crises had
involved a great war, and those conflicts
had increased in scope from the American
Revolution through the Civil War to the
Second World War. He expected a new and
even bigger war as part of the current
crisis, and he did not seem at all fazed by
the prospect.
I did not agree, and said so. But, knowing
that the history of international conflict
was my own specialty, he repeatedly pressed
me to say we could expect a conflict at
least as big as the Second World War in the
near or medium term. I refused.
Apocalyptic rhetoric and apocalyptic
thinking flourish during crisis periods.
This represents perhaps the biggest danger
of the Trump presidency, and one that will
bear watching from all concerned citizens
in the months and years ahead.
Thanks for the information. I'm aware of
the madman's "movie" and his authoritarian
ideology. He and his commander-of-thieves
will continue to unravel right before our
eyes. Many lives will continue to be
severely impacted by these hateful,
selfish, abusive throwbacks from "central
casting."
Every day there is a race you have to run. For the
sake of discussion, let's call it a 100 yard race.
The participants are called and then evaluated by
the judges. Starting points for the race are then
determined. If you are particularly comely, you are
given an advantage: that is, your starting point is
moved up depending on the judges. If you have a
personality that people find attractive, you are given
further yards. If you happen to have had great success
in school, you are awarded so many yards because of
your academic record. If you happen to be good looking
and personable, the academic success yards are added
onto your already determined starting point.
Then the quality and reputation of your educational
institution is evaluated and you are given further
yards to determine starting points with certain schools
worth a better starting position. And even the type of
training at the institution is evaluated and further
yards given.
Finally the judges add your total experiences –
including your finishing position in previous races –
advanced degrees, and connections and further yards are
added.
So when the gun sounds, the person without the
advantages strives as hard as they can but they cannot
win the race because some people only have to simply
step over the finish line.
And even more troubling some people are moved behind
the starting line because they could not even muster
the necessary accomplishments to reach the starting
line: drop outs from school, people who have been
convicted of crimes and the rest. The worse the
offense, the further you are moved behind the starting
line.
Every day this continues and those striving to win –
even running faster and harder than their competitors –
are simply unable to do so because the rules are such
that winning is not even a consideration when the race
is rigged.
The factors are certainly at work in inequality.
Some of those factors can either be mitigated or
compensated for by the individual and/or the social
system.
There are other structural factors that influence
inequality. Family connections, inherited wealth,
and other forms of social capital that can make
advancement easier is one. Savings and investment
patterns that can be engaged in to varying degrees
depending on just how much surplus income one has is
another.
The social and political system in the US
generally favors vigorous competition, private
self-dealing, and asymmetric information.
Individuals who learn to navigate these factors can
prosper, while those who either can't or don't want
to can suffer significant disadvantages in outcomes.
The influence of these structural factors in any
social system influences the degree of income/wealth
stratification.
In my own family, many of the starting social
factors are fairly equal among the individuals. Even
though my various relatives have not necessarily
made "bad" choices in the moral sense, their
outcomes have been vastly different. The degree to
which they have chosen to engagein income/wealth
maximization has generally been a large factor. In
that sense, the game is rigged away from living what
many consider a humane life.
You mean people actually got paid to research and write
stuff like this? You simply have to look at the
(re)distribution policies of the countries concerned – and
there are substantial differences between the three of
them, by the way.
Wouldn't a much more interesting question be "By what
mechanism does globalization necessarily increase
inequality, and how does it work precisely in a number of
contrasted cases"? But then you might get the wrong
answer.
No kidding – kind of amazing that people get paid
good money to restate the obvious, but using
sesquipedalian language just to make it more difficult
to understand.
Inequality is caused by one group not having as much
money as another. Money is simply a tool created by
human beings. Much like a hammer, human beings could
use it to build houses for everyone or to bash others
about the head. We humans seem to prefer the latter
use.
The people paid to prove the obvious are far
outnumbered by those paid to disprove it. We need the
former because of the latter.
On the other hand, there are many cases where the
obvious turned out to be wrong when it was looked at
carefully. More research needed!
We're in a world where politicians get paid to lie
about these obvious things and legislate based on those
lies, and businesses make their profits off the lies,
so I can't get too exercised when someone gets paid to
point out the lies.
"Forces." Really? "Globalization" and "technological
change" are things humans do for human reasons. To treat
them as "forces" somehow exogenous to human choices is
self-evidently fallacious. It's precisely the same logic
that says the King is the King cause God likes him best.
They're not "forces." They are heuristics. And as
heuristics, they are pretty lousy unless you parse them
quite a bit. Obama's 1 trillion dollar investment in nukes
creates "technological change." The destruction of local
agricultural techniques and knowledge is "technological
change." A kindle is "technological change." Keyword
searches readily available to academic researchers was a
big "technological change."
I'm assuming what they mean by "technological change"
here is the sort that allows us to collectively make more
stuff with less work. God forbid anyone spell that out
though. Because "hey, guess what: you have to work more
for less because we can now make more stuff with less
work," would quickly lead to the violent demise of
economists and rich people. (more to say on
"globalization" but this post is already way longer than
intended.)
Germany should have been included in the study. German
manufacturing is far more technologically advanced than
manufacturing in the US, yet Germany manages to maintain
high employment in that sector, probably because the
companies invest in worker training and feel some
obligation toward labor.
There's a structural reason for this, with labor having
powerful representation on German corporate boards and
smaller companies being owned by families instead of
faceless shareholders, with the families' long-term
interests naturally more in alignment with those of their
employees.
Actually, I thought the inclusion of France and the
UK was a bit strange, as well. Inequality in both
countries has been increasingly massively in recent
years. One Thomas Piketty even wrote something on the
topic, if I'm not mistaken. Japan would have been a
much better example.
I think it kind of makes the point, if even a
country that isn't exactly known for egalitarianism,
like the UK, is doing better than the U.S. it kind
of shows how extreme on the scale the U.S. is.
Contrary to elite owned and serving mass media
claims, the trick that created the German economic
miracle is no mystery; it was, and IS, their banking
system.
In Germany more than 70% of all banking is done by
"municipally owned banks"!!!
A situation that the elites – masters of the universe
-have been working day and night to drastically alter
so that their "too big to fail" minion zombie banks can
take complete AND total control of the economy, as they
have in most of the developed world except North
Dakota, Canada (Canada owns the Bank of Canada – the
Finance Minister holds all the shares on behalf of all
Canadians), and Switzerland (Switzerland has Cantonal
{municipally or provincially} owned banks) – all three
countries, like the German municipally owned banks, are
under attack by the elite serving bureaucrats in the
IMF and the U.S. Federal Reserve; all of whom are owned
by, and minions of, Wall Street; and most importantly
the corporate bought and sold world's university
economics departments – co-opted to right agenda faux
economic B.S.
The U.S. Federal Reserve now donates more money to
universities worldwide than all of the rest of the
donors combined!?! The proviso on these donations is
that they only hire economics profs who have been
published in one of the 37 journals published by the
U.S. Federal Reserve – and we know what kind of right
agenda 'fascist' mumbo-jumbo these minion economists
are dedicated to serving up in order to get published
by the U.S. Fed!!!
So what you say!! Well here's so what!
If you are in any other developed country than Germany
and you have a great idea/product and require a one
million dollar loan to build a factory and set up
production – here's what happens to you. Your local
banks will never lend you that money, so you have to go
to the criminal Big Banks which will also never lend
you the money you need, which means you will have to
sell your idea/product at pennies on the dollar to one
of their huge corporate clients, who will offshore
production to a corrupted third world country where
workers get paid pennies an hour and unions are
considered a criminal enterprise. Leaving you, the
creator of the product or service with pennies on the
dollar; and leaving your local economy with zero
economic growth and no well paid local employment
opportunities. The corporate buyer of your
technology/product/idea may well just kill your product
because it is better than the (inferior) one they are
currently making bags of money selling – for which they
have just eliminated your innovative and superior
competitive product.
If you are in Germany however the story is far
different. In Germany you would go to your local
municipally owned bank which is only too happy to give
you the one million dollars you need to set up
production (locally providing employment and
contributing to local economic prosperity).
This is the basis for the strength of the German
economy and the reason for the so called ":German
economic miracle?"!
It is described as a "miracle" not because we have no
idea how it happened, rather because the elites who own
more than 80% of all corporate shares need to confuse
us plebs they want to economically and politically
crush!
American wealth inequality is a political problem?
Well,
no sh*t, Sherlock
.
Kevin Phillips wrote about this phenomenon a decade ago
in his wonderful book
Wealth and Democracy
.
Between 1920 and 1980, American plutocrats had been placed
in fear by the Bolshevik revolution, humbled by the Great
Depression, and shamed by the Second World War. Greed was
in check. Then they died-off and left their wealth to a
new generation more interested in emulating Mick Jagger
than Dwight D. Eisenhower. Ronnie Reagan was their
Hollywood pal, who cut estate and coupon-clipping taxes so
that they could party like rock stars.
Crass punks like Donald Trump and the Kochs are the
scions of inherited wealth and Studio 54. They could never
have made it on their own, on their own talents, and it is
in their class interest to destroy any sort of
meritocracy. They have used materialism and greed to buy
the political class.
Look up Geert Hofstede's work on "power distance,"
which is the extent to which a nation accepts inequality.
According to Hofstede, countries have different
"tastes" or preferences for inequality. For example, the
Middle East, parts of S America, India, and other parts of
Asia have a much bigger "taste" for inequality compared
to, say, the Scandinavian countries, which have the
lowest.
I would guess that differences in preferences for
inequality between countries go back to a nation's
history, and maybe other hard-to-pin down forces and
factors.
The US, according to Hofstede's work, is at the middle
point, or a little lower, as to taste for inequality.
However, reading about the recent Gini index leads me to
believe that either our preference for inequality is
changing [probably not the case, given Trump], or our
history is outrunning our preferences. In other words, we
may be getting more inequality than we like.
By the way, Hofstede assumes that power distance
preference is a fairly durable characteristic of a nation.
Preference?? Yes, I'm sure the mid east loves
inequality, which is why they are known for choosing
dictators who quash uprisings as their leaders. And how
exactly would I choose egalitarianism here in the US? I
can vote for Wall Street and Holly Wood or Wall Street
and Exxon Mobil. Which one is the egalitarian one?
However, reading about the recent Gini index
leads me to believe that either our preference for
inequality is changing [probably not the case, given
Trump], or our history is outrunning our
preferences.
"
What about "power distance" (extent to which a
nation accepts inequality) interactions with "distance
to power" extent to which a nation influences the
powerful.
I've been reading Robert J. Gordon's book, 'The Rise
and Fall of American Growth.' Gordon would say that
American labor did well from 1870-1970 because of the
innovations that drove the economy increased everyone's
productivity and the value of their work. Since 1970,
productivity has slowed down. It rose again during the
decade of the '90s but mostly for knowledge workers,
thanks to the internet, spreadsheets, etcetera, but now
has continued to slow. That was a recipe for income
inequality, and for wealth inequality as well, since the
rise of digital industries has increased property values
on the coasts and in select inland cities.
Slowing productivity also increased wealth inequality
by facilitating the decline of interest rates. This helps
the haves, since their assets are suddenly more valuable.
this guy argues that productivity has been decoupled
from compensation, and that has driven the rise of
inequality.
off topic, but the krugman review of the book
contained the interesting fact that, during the 1880's,
wall street was 7 feet deep in manure in some places.
Of course inequality is a political choice. Chosen by
the oligarchs who buy the politicians.
Just like every mainstream economist is choosing to
make millions suffer and die every day because excepting
MMT would bruise their ego's. That is a choice too.
I think that inequality is not a political choice
directly but a consequence of deregulation or "do nothing"
policy. Reducing inequality is a policy choice.
They soon made the most of the opportunity and removed
themselves from any hard work to concentrate on "spiritual
matters", i.e. any hocus-pocus they could come up with to
elevate them from the masses, e.g. rituals, fertility
rights, offering to the gods . etc and to turn the
initially small tributes, into extracting all the surplus
created by the hard work of the rest.
The elites became the representatives of the gods
and they were responsible for the bounty of the earth and
the harvests. As long as all the surplus was handed over,
all would be well.
Later they came up with money.
We pay you to do the work and you give it back to us
when you buy things, you live a bare subsistence existence
and we take the rest.
A bare subsistence existence ensured the workers didn't
die and could reproduce, why give them anymore? The vile
maxim of the masters of mankind.
Basic capitalism was how it all started in the 18th and
19th Centuries, the poor lived in squalor and the rich
lived in luxury, the same as it had always been.
Only organised labour movements got those at the bottom
a larger slice of the pie, basic capitalism gives nothing
to the people who do the work apart from a bare
subsistence existence.
The wealthy decided they needed to do away with
organised labour movements and the welfare state; it was
interfering with the natural order where they extract all
the surplus.
2017 – World's eight richest people have same wealth as
poorest 50%
Nearly there.
They need a bit more fine tuning at Davos.
Some of the world's workers are not living a bare
subsistence existence.
Francis Fukuyama talked of the "end of history" and
"liberal democracy".
Liberal democracy was the bringing together of two
mutually exclusive ideas.
Economic liberalism – that enriches the few and
impoverishes the many.
Democracy – that requires the support of the majority.
Trying to bring two mutually exclusive ideas together
just doesn't work.
The ideas of "Economic Liberalism" came from Milton
Freidman and the University of Chicago. It was so radical
they first tried it in a military dictatorship in Chile,
it wouldn't be compatible with democracy. It took death
squads, torture and terror to keep it in place, there was
an ethnic cleansing of anyone who still showed signs of
any left wing thinking.
It was tried in a few other places in South America
using similar techniques. It then did succeed in a
democracy but only by tricking the people into thinking
they were voting for something else, severe oppression was
needed when they found out what they were getting.
It brings extreme inequality and widespread poverty
everywhere it's tested, they decide it's a system that
should be rolled out globally. It's just what they are
looking for.
Would a for-profit chain of local newspapers whose
business model and advertising is built on serving the
Portland Business Alliance and Chamber of Commerce
interests hire or keep on staff any kind of investigative
journalistic team or even an individual
columnist\calumnist like recently deceased
VILLAGE
VOICE
early 1980's TRUMP SWAMP
WHISTLE-BLOWER WAYNE BARRET (RIP)?
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/19/business/media/wayne-barrett-dead-village-voice-columnist.html
What socio-econ OUTCOMES have resulted in even
PAMPLIN MEDIA GROUP
's outsourcing to
a non-profit InvestigateWest journalistic venture and
beginning a series that seems historic in these parts as
the SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS series by dead investigative
journalist GARY WEBB in the years after Iran-Contra
Scandal to uncover the bid-net of BUSINESS and that was
shortly thereafter taken down off the web under pressure
by the
SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS
.
Here's our story, for this twice-a-week Business
Serving newspaper group anyway. Get yer Huzzahs in fast
before all trace of the findings of this Moonlighting
Civil Servant who got the docs via PUBLIC RECORDS REQUEST
SEARCHES on her own dime and has embarrased the 1-Party
so-called PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATIC BLUE PARTY MACHINE in
OREGON beginning with ORACLE LLC Lawsuit-Surrendering
ATTORNEY GENERAL Ellen Rosenblum and up to the Governor
Kate Brown neither of whom in long careers in State
Government in jobs tasked with auditing ever reviewed
these findings:
Keep on doing,
Punching way above your weight
PAMPLIN PAPERS
making a mockery of outside money-owned
OREGONIAN
and the so-called alternative weeklies who only make news
hole
available for Lifestyle features on the new Wellness Spa,
Tattoo Parlor or Booze\Gourmet venture
Mitch Ritter\Paradigm Shifters
Lay-Low Studios, Ore-Wa
Media Discussion Group
Thanks for the links, Mitch. For an economically
disadvantaged group to be assessed so much more in
penalties for minor infractions makes inequality even
worse.
TCOMES have resulted in even
PAMPLIN MEDIA GROUP
's
outsourcing to a non-profit InvestigateWest journalistic venture and beginning
a series that seems historic in these parts as the SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS series
by dead investigative journalist GARY WEBB in the years after Iran-Contra
Scandal to uncover the bid-net of BUSINESS and that was shortly thereafter
taken down off the web under pressure by the
SAN JOSE MERCURY NEWS
.
Here's our story, for this twice-a-week Business Serving newspaper group
anyway. Get yer Huzzahs in fast before all trace of the findings of this
Moonlighting Civil Servant who got the docs via PUBLIC RECORDS REQUEST SEARCHES
on her own dime and has embarrased the 1-Party so-called PROGRESSIVE DEMOCRATIC
BLUE PARTY MACHINE in OREGON beginning with ORACLE LLC Lawsuit-Surrendering
ATTORNEY GENERAL Ellen Rosenblum and up to the Governor Kate Brown neither of
whom in long careers in State Government in jobs tasked with auditing ever
reviewed these findings:
Keep on doing,
Punching way above your weight
PAMPLIN PAPERS
making a mockery of outside money-owned
OREGONIAN
and the so-called alternative weeklies who only make news hole
available for Lifestyle features on the new Wellness Spa, Tattoo Parlor or
Booze\Gourmet venture
Mitch Ritter\Paradigm Shifters
Lay-Low Studios, Ore-Wa
Media Discussion Group
Thanks for the links, Mitch. For an economically disadvantaged group to
be assessed so much more in penalties for minor infractions makes inequality
even worse.
GM could instead have its foreign subsidiaries pay $1 billion
less for the cars they buy from the US branch of the company.
That wipes out GM's US profits, leaving it with no US tax
liability and shifting the profits to the subsidiaries
abroad.
"If done well, it could eliminate a lot of the tax
shenanigans that companies like Apple and Google use, and
raise a lot of revenue that could be used to either lower the
corporate tax rate"
Companies that export their goods and intellectual
property will pay less not more. OK – Apple and Google game
the current system. But then there are companies like
Starbucks and Boeing who currently pay a lot in US taxes.
Under this proposal – they will pay a lot less.
Lawrence Summers says the gaming under this proposal will
be yuuge. It will be but it will be different as I noted in
my Trump Toaster Oven story. PeterK has read it and went off
in one of his incoherent rants. But I guess he really did not
read it as he says Summers and I have not explained our
position. Just wow. But back to Dylan:
"Proponents don't think it would raise taxes for companies
that import goods like avocados, and so wouldn't drive those
companies to raise prices to compensate. If all goes
according to plan, your guac would be safe. Shareholders in
corporations would be paying for the border wall (just as
they pay the bulk of corporate taxes today), not US
consumers."
This seems to contradict itself. Dylan has conflated the
trade protection issue and the tax issue. Forgive him as what
the proponents say needs to be scrutinized carefully which
has been my point from day one. Think of the shareholders of
Fresh Del Monte who import a lot of fruits and source a lot
of profits abroad. Their corporate taxes will go up under
this proposal, which is fine by me. But if anyone thinks they
will not game the new system – then they are clueless. One
cheer to Dylan for trying but this falls really short.
"For
example, suppose that a car company - let's just call it, uh,
General Motors - makes $1 billion in profit manufacturing
cars in the US and selling them domestically and exporting
them to subsidiaries abroad. That would normally subject it
about $350 million in taxes, since the US has a 35 percent
corporate tax rate. But GM could instead have its foreign
subsidiaries pay $1 billion less for the cars they buy from
the US branch of the company. That wipes out GM's US profits,
leaving it with no US tax liability and shifting the profits
to the subsidiaries abroad. If those subsidiaries are in
countries with a low or nonexistent corporate income tax,
that could wind up being a very good deal. Same goes for
companies that import goods.
Imagine a company - call it Chiquita Banana - that has
subsidiaries in Latin American countries, buys up bananas
from banana farmers, and then sells them to the US branch for
resale. Suppose it too makes a $1 billion profit doing this.
It could then just have its Latin American subsidiaries
charge $1 billion more for the bananas, leaving the US branch
with no profits and shifting them to Latin America. These are
very, very simplified examples; most corporate tax evasion
schemes are vastly more complicated. But in broad strokes,
this is how most of it works: You manipulate transactions
between US and non-US branches of the company so that the
money winds up abroad.
A destination-based tax makes all of this impossible."
Very simplified? This first one is a very incorrect
example. GM and Ford bring most of their profits back to the
US. Under DBCFT – they get a major tax break. Chiquita is
doing this but then they import bananas whereas GM exports
cars. YUUUGE difference. DBCFT would make what impossible.
GM's income from exports would go to zero. How does this
help? And if Dylan has bought into Auerbach's spin that DBCFT
ends transfer pricing games, he is wrong as I have noted. I'm
sorry but this is a really, really dumb discussion. But
PeterK thinks it is great? Just wow!
"Lawrence Summers says the gaming under this proposal will be
yuuge. It will be but it will be different as I noted in my
Trump Toaster Oven story. PeterK has read it and went off in
one of his incoherent rants. But I guess he really did not
read it as he says Summers and I have not explained our
position"
PGL said this was insignificant and unworthy of comment.
Krugman apparently disagreed.
FEB 1 12:49 PM Feb 1 12:49 pm
16
Germany, the Euro, and Currency Manipulation
by Krugman
Peter Navarro, the closest thing Trump has to an economic
guru, made some waves by accusing Germany of being a currency
manipulator and suggesting that both the shadow Deutsche mark
and the euro are undervalued. Leaving aside the dubious
notion that this is a good target of US economic diplomacy,
is he right?
Yes and no. Unfortunately, the "no" part is what's
relevant to the US.
Yes, Germany in effect has an undervalued currency
relative to what it would have without the euro. The figure
shows German prices (GDP deflator) relative to Spain (which I
take to represent Southern Europe in general) since the euro
was created. There was a large real depreciation during the
euro's good years, when Spain had massive capital inflows and
an inflationary boom. This has only been partly reversed,
despite an incredible depression in Spain. Why? Because wages
are downward sticky, and Germany has refused to support the
kind of monetary and fiscal stimulus that would raise overall
euro area inflation, which remains stuck at far too low a
level.
So the euro system has kept Germany undervalued, on a
sustained basis, against its neighbors.
But does this mean that the euro as a whole is undervalued
against the dollar? Probably not. The euro is weak because
investors see poor investment opportunities in Europe, to an
important extent because of bad demography, and better
opportunities in the U.S.. The travails of the euro system
may add to poor European perceptions. But there's no clear
relationship between the problems of Germany's role within
the euro and questions of the relationship between the euro
and other currencies.
And may I say, what is the purpose of having someone
connected to the U.S. government say this? Are we going to
pressure the ECB to adopt tighter monetary policy? I sure
hope not. Are we egging on a breakup of the euro? It sure
sounds like it - but that is not, not, something the US
government should be doing. What would we say if Chinese
officials seemed to be talking up a US financial crisis? (It
would, of course, be OK with Trump if the Russians did it.)
So yes, Navarro has a point about Germany's role within
the euro. And if he were unconnected with the Bannon
administration, he would be free to make it. But in the
current context, this is grossly irresponsible.
"Because wages are downward sticky, and Germany has refused
to support the kind of monetary and fiscal stimulus that
would raise overall euro area inflation, which remains stuck
at far too low a level."
"And may I say, what is the
purpose of having someone connected to the U.S. government
say this?"
If Germany engaged in enough fiscal stimulus to boost
growth and inflation, eventually the economy would boom and
the ECB would be forced to raise rates, maybe even higher
than the Fed, drawing in capital and appreciating the Euro.
I doubt Navarro is saying this though. (although Trump is
promising a large fiscal expansion....)
Queue incoming tirade, rand and temper tantrum from PGL.
Can't we just have a calm discussion about the facts and
theory. Why the need to have flame wars and get personal?
I mean, in essence Navarro is correct. Europe weak economy is
making the American economy look strong by comparison.
Germany and Europe need to get their act together and so
they'll buy more import from America. Instead Germany is
beggaring its neighbors with overly tight macro policy and
fiscal targets.
Box 1: MAGA ideal: made in
America, by Americans, for Americans. Tax will be collected
on profits earned by selling goods produced & sold
domestically. The DBCFT most resembles an income tax in this
scenario (though expensing and non-deductibility of interest
still moves it toward a consumption base); it will also be
the easiest to collect.
Box 2: Exports. Tax exemption for sales abroad will create
(possibly permanent) NOLs to carry forward indefinitely. This
will require deciding on loss-shifting policy. This is
obviously not an income tax but it not a VAT either.
Box 3: Imports. Sales in the US of goods produced abroad
are taxed on a gross basis, more like an excise tax (or yes,
a tariff). With an estimated $1.2 trillion trade deficit,
this part of the DBCFT is expected to raise the most revenue
but the success of that strategy depends to some degree
(maybe a large degree) on remote sellers collecting tax
(that's complicated--see Europe).
Box 4: Foreign Sales of Foreign Products. Neither costs
nor revenues are counted for goods produced and sold abroad,
even if produced and sold by a US-based company. This part of
the DBCFT would be more or less consistent with either a VAT
or territorial income tax.
That, in a nutshell, is the basic skeleton of the DBCFT as
proposed in the Ryan plan. It will be interesting to see
what, if any, of this ends up enacted IRL.
* There is absolutely zero chance that the proposal will
be enacted as described. Still, it is helpful to understand
the basic vision. I do not claim to be an expert on the DBCFT
and offer here no analysis or predictions about the incidence
of the tax, or the impact such a tax would have on US or
world capital flows, investment, consumption, economic
growth, or international relations. This paper by Wei Cui, or
this one by Wolfgang Schoen are helpful in addressing many of
these issues.
"Think of the shareholders of Fresh Del Monte who
import a lot of fruits and source a lot of profits abroad.
Their corporate taxes will go up under this proposal, which
is fine by me. But if anyone thinks they will not game the
new system – then they are clueless."
Box 3. How will they game the system exactly? Something
with remote sellers collecting taxes?
The Major Potential Impact of a Corporate Tax Overhaul
by NEIL IRWIN JAN. 7, 2017
The United States system for taxing businesses is a mess.
If there's one thing nearly everyone can agree upon, it is
that.
The current corporate income tax manages the weird trick
of both taxing companies at a higher statutory rate than
other advanced countries while collecting less money, as a
percentage of the overall economy, than most of them. It is
infinitely complicated and it gives companies incentives to
borrow too much money and move operations to countries with
lower tax rates.
Now, the moment for trying to fix all of that appears to
have arrived. With the House, Senate and presidency all soon
to be in Republican hands and with all agreeing that a major
tax bill is a top priority, some kind of change appears
likely to happen. And it may turn out to be a very big deal,
particularly if a tax plan that House Republicans proposed
last summer becomes the core of new legislation.
Among Washington's lobbying shops and policy analysis
crowd, it's known as a "destination-based cash flow tax with
border adjustment." It's easier to think of it as the most
substantial reworking of how businesses are taxed since the
corporate income tax was introduced a century ago. And it
could, if enacted, have big effects not just in the tax
departments of major corporations but in global financial
markets and the aisles of your local Walmart.
This possible revamping of the corporate tax code is less
politically polarizing than the debates sure to unfold in the
months ahead over health care, or even over individual income
taxes. But the consequences for business - and for the
long-term trajectory of the economy - are huge.
The basic idea behind a D.B.C.F.T. (to use the
abbreviation that has taken hold in a particularly nerdy
corner of Twitter) is this: Right now companies are taxed
based on their income generated in the United States. But
there are countless tricks that corporate accountants can
play to reduce the income companies report and to reduce
their tax burden, and those tricks distort the economy.
Two prime examples are transferring intellectual property
to overseas holding companies and engaging in corporate
inversions that move a company's legal headquarters to a
country with lower taxes. Moreover, because interest payments
on debt are tax-deductible, the current system makes it
appealing to take on as much debt as possible, even though
that can increase the risk of bankruptcy when a downturn
comes along.
The House Republicans' approach, instead of taxing the
easy-to-manipulate corporate income, goes after a firm's
domestic cash flow: money that comes in from sales within the
United States borders minus money that goes out to pay
employees and buy supplies and so forth. There's no incentive
to play games with overseas companies that exist only to
exploit tax differences or to relocate production to
countries with lower taxes because you'll be taxed on things
you sell in the United States, regardless.
"With an income tax, one of the key issues is 'how do you
measure income,' " said Alan Auerbach, an economist at the
University of California, Berkeley, who is a leading advocate
of the idea. "But with cash flow you just follow the money."
And the tax, Mr. Auerbach argues, could spur business
investment while not encouraging companies to rely on debt.
It allows companies to enjoy the tax savings of capital
investments immediately rather than depreciating them over
time. And it doesn't give favorable treatment to debt, as
opposed to equity.
That alone would amount to a major shift in the tax
system. Congressional staff members, the incoming
administration and armies of lobbyists will spend countless
hours hammering out the details of any such proposal: how it
might be phased in, and how to treat financial services, and
much more.
Some of the most complex, and politically problematic,
elements of the plan revolve around its treatment of
international trade, which creates winners and losers. And
some of those potential losers are powerful.
Consider what border adjustment means: When an American
company exports goods under this new tax system, it would not
pay any taxes on its international sales, while its imports
would be taxed. So a company that spent $80 making something
that it sold overseas for $100 would pay no tax on its
earnings. A company that imported goods worth $80 from abroad
and them sold them domestically for $100 would pay tax on the
full $100.
At first glance this looks as if it would boost exports
and reduce the trade deficit. Indeed, it might prove
politically promising for advocates of the strategy to pitch
the plan as one that would do this.
Many economists think it won't work that way, however.
That's because as soon as a cash-flow-based tax with border
adjustment looks likely to become law, the value of the
dollar should rise in currency markets. And that stronger
dollar could eliminate the apparent pro-export, anti-import
effects of the tax. The dollar could rise by, say, 20 to 25
percent, and the trade balance could remain about where it
started.
Essentially, moving to this system means betting on a
"textbook economic theory," as analysts at Evercore ISI put
it, becoming a reality even though the effect hasn't been
tested in practice.
If the dollar doesn't strengthen as expected, for example,
import-dependent industries, especially those with lean
profit margins, could face disaster. That helps explain why
some of the stiffest opposition to this tax overhaul is
coming from the retail industry. Essentially, economists are
telling them "trust us, our models say the currency will
adjust and it will all come out in the wash," but if the
models are wrong, for companies like Walmart, Target and many
others that sell large volumes of imported goods, their
viability could be threatened.
If the models turn out to be right, there is a different
set of risks. The United States dollar is the linchpin of the
global financial system, and a large move in its value
triggered by changes in domestic tax policy could have
unforeseen effects.
Many companies worldwide, especially banks and especially
in emerging markets, have debt denominated in dollars, which
would become more of a burden after a new dollar
appreciation. A big dollar rise would also effectively shift
trillions in wealth from American investments overseas toward
global investors with assets in the United States.
As Jared Bernstein of the Center on Budget and Policy
Priorities has noted, we don't really know what the
distributional consequences of this tax overhaul would be. It
could increase the costs of imported goods that the poor
spend a disproportionate portion of their income on, like
clothing and gasoline. That would be bad news for poorer
Americans even as it makes the overall economy more
efficient.
There's still a lot of work to be done to understand the
far-reaching consequences of the D.B.C.F.T. (also, work to be
done to find a catchier name). But there's a broader point
about the nature of any major policy reform. The benefits of
a reworked corporate tax code would emerge slowly; these
disruptions and costs could arrive almost instantly.
No matter the outcome, 2017 will be a fascinating year in
which core components of the tax system - with long-lasting
economic consequences - will be up for grabs.
It's been the prevailing economic philosophy of the Republican Party since Ronald Reagan was elected
president in 1980.
Supply-side economics held that reducing marginal tax rates would spur economic growth, create
jobs and even generate tax revenue for the government.
Reuters A statue of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan near the American Embassy in Budapest, Hungary.
And it makes sense in theory: If people keep more of what they make, they would logically work
harder, spend more and hire more people, right?
When you listen to supply-siders like Arthur Laffer, Stephen Moore and Larry Kudlow, they always
extol the Kennedy-Johnson tax cut of the 1960s and especially President Reagan's tax cuts of the
1980s.
But they rarely mention the 1990s or the 2000s.
Maybe that's because those two decades were almost a perfect controlled experiment that shattered
their pet theories: President Bill Clinton raised marginal tax rates and the economy boomed and jobs
were plentiful. President George W. Bush cut them and we got only modest job growth.
In fact, there's more and more evidence suggesting that lowering marginal tax rates doesn't create
many jobs at all.
For years I've tried to find any economist - left, right, or center - who could estimate the number
of jobs created by the Bush tax cuts, but without success.
So, I'm taking a crack at it myself.
Tax hikes vs. tax cuts
Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics CES survey, I compared the number of jobs created
in the years following the balanced budget bill signed by President Clinton in August 1993 and after
the second round of Bush tax cuts, which went into effect in May 2003. (Supply-siders think that
was the real deal, not the earlier 2001 cuts.)
Nearly 20 million private sector jobs were created from the August 1993 tax increase until the
end of the Clinton administration in December 2000. The number following the Bush tax cuts, in a
shorter time period (May 2003 to December 2007, when the Great Recession began), was above seven
million.
But when I actually counted the jobs created in various industries and eliminated those that clearly
had nothing to do with lower marginal tax rates, I was left with a much smaller number: two million
at most, a dreadful performance by any measurement.
This isn't an academic exercise. A 20% cut in marginal tax rates, including reducing the top tax
rate to 28% from 35%, is a key plank of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's economic
growth plan (along with cuts in business taxes and reduced regulation, which I won't cover in this
column).
One of former Gov. Romney's top economic advisers, Glenn Hubbard, the dean of the Columbia Business
School, wasn't available for an interview, nor could the Romney campaign provide another adviser
by deadline. Top Bush economist Lawrence Lindsey also wasn't available.
Yet Hubbard, along with former Sen. Phil Gramm (Mr. Banking Deregulation of the late 1990s), penned
an op-ed Thursday in the Wall Street Journal comparing the current recession with "the superior job
creation and income growth" of - wait for it - the 1980s.
Again, no mention of the Clinton 1990s or the Bush tax cuts, of which Hubbard was a prime architect
as chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers.
Isn't it curious how so many smart people have such complete amnesia about the last 20 years?
The Clinton delivery
Yet there's a growing consensus that cuts in marginal income-tax rates don't deliver the goods:
Robert Moffitt and Mark Wilhelm found "no evidence" that high-income U.S. taxpayers increased
their work hours in response to the 1986 Reagan tax cuts. This undercuts a central premise of supply-side
economics, that cutting taxes gives people incentives to work more.
A 2010 report by the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office found that cutting income taxes produced
the least bang for the buck among 11 proposed policy options aimed at boosting employment. David
and Christina Romer, economists at the University of California-Berkeley (she was President Obama's
CEA chairman), found that changes in marginal tax rates had little effect on U.S. economic growth
in the 1920s and 1930s, either.
But the most striking evidence is the glaring contrast between the 1990s and 2000s.
A 2008 study by the liberal Center for American Progress and Economic Policy Institute showed
that private investment, GDP, wages, household income, employment and federal revenue all grew faster
- sometimes much faster - during the high-tax Clinton years than they did during the low-tax Reagan
and Bush eras.
In August 1993, President Clinton signed a law that boosted the top personal income tax rate dramatically,
to 39.6% from 31%.
But rather than die out, the nascent economic recovery picked up speed and never looked back.
By the time this giant boom ended, the U.S. economy had added nearly 20 million private-sector jobs
in every sector from manufacturing to retail trade to finance to information technology.
Marginalizing marginal tax rates
Of course, higher taxes didn't cause this boom. That's the whole point: other economic forces
were so powerful that marginal tax rates didn't matter.
And they didn't matter a decade later when President Bush signed the second of two tax cuts in
May 2003, accelerating the 2001 act's provisions, reducing the top rate to 35%, and cutting capital
gains and dividend tax rates.
But something else was brewing: In July 2003, the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate to
1% and kept it there for a year.
By doing so, the Fed pumped hot air into a speculative real estate bubble, with far-flung effects.
As Martin N. Baily, Susan Lund and Charles Atkins wrote in a 2010 paper for the McKinsey Global Institute:
"From 2003 through the third quarter of 2008, U.S. households extracted $2.3 trillion of equity
from their homes in the form of home-equity loans and cash-out refinancings. Nearly 40% of this -
$897 billion, an amount bigger than the 2008 U.S. government stimulus package - went directly to
finance home improvement or personal consumption." (Italics added.)
The two Bush tax cuts caused an estimated $1 trillion loss of federal tax revenues - and each
year the revenue shortfall is an additional $100 billion. It's the gift that keeps on giving.
So, here's how I'm calculating the jobs created by these cuts.
First, to the 7.33 million net new private-sector jobs, I'm adding back a million jobs lost in
manufacturing and technology, for about 8.3 million new jobs created.
Job growth under Bill Clinton and George W. Bush
After Clinton tax hike Aug. 1993-Dec. 2000
After Bush tax cut May 2003-Dec. 2007
Total private employment (thousands)
19,586
7,333
Manufacturing
437
(812)
Information
1,031
(169)
Retail Trade
2,321.4
674
Wholesale Trade
812.9
422.1
Leisure & Hospitality
2,201
1,458
Transportation
887.9
372.1
Finance (incl. real estate finance)
1,008
236
Professional & Business Services
5,300
2,131
Construction
1,986
784
Residential Construction
214.4
295.3
Health & Education Services
2,925
1,971
(Selected categories, may not add up)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES
Then I'd subtract the two million new jobs in health and education, which grew steadily in both
the Clinton and Bush years with no impact from tax policy.
I'd also remove the 400,000 jobs added in residential real estate and home building, obviously
a result of lower interest rates and the housing bubble.
Then, I'd subtract two million new jobs in professional and business services, also the result
of a structural move to a service economy. Five million of those jobs were added under President
Clinton.
That leaves us with four million jobs added in cyclical industries like retail and wholesale trade,
leisure and hospitality, transportation and securities, as well as nonresidential construction.
My best guess is that half of those jobs were the result of the housing bubble, cash-out refinancing
and rock-bottom interest rates while the rest may have come from the additional animal spirits and
cash in consumers' pockets as a result of the Bush tax cuts.
My unscientific estimate, then, is that the Bush tax cuts were responsible for maybe two million
jobs at most. Pathetic is an understatement.
I welcome your input and would be glad to revise this number in a future column if you provide
a better estimate.
Supply-side economics is not the only economic philosophy that has come up short in the Great
Recession. As I wrote here last year, Keynesian stimulus and Friedmanesque monetary policy both haven't
done the job.
Surely supply-side economics worked better when the top tax rate was slashed from 70% to 28% under
President Reagan. It might be more justified at the state level, where crippling tax burdens have
made some states uncompetitive. And raising taxes too high would likely hurt growth, so it may work
better in reverse.
But clearly this is a theory with diminishing returns that has outlived its usefulness.
Because after the last two decades, believing that cuts in marginal personal tax rates will create
jobs and revive our economy is like still believing the sun orbits the earth.
Howard R. Gold is a columnist at MarketWatch and editor at large for MoneyShow.com. Follow him
on Twitter @howardrgold and read his commentary on politics and economics at www.independentagenda.com.
"... "I worked with Ronald Reagan to develop supply-side economics in the late '70s, along with Jack Kemp and Art Laffer and Jude Wanniski and others," Gingrich declared at a recent town hall event. "We ended up passing it into law in '81. At the time it was very bold. People called it 'voodoo economics.' It had one great virtue: it worked." ..."
"... Their second key advantage was that nobody could say for sure what the results of the "supply-side" experiment would be. There was little empirical data to assess how radical tax cuts would play out in the modern economy. One could make common-sense judgments, as George H.W. Bush had done with his "voodoo" remark, but you couldn't see the future. ..."
"... Now, however, with three decades of experience with the experiment, the fallacies of "supply-side" economics are no longer a mystery. For instance, a major obstacle to today's economic recovery has been the absence of "demand-side" consumers, not the availability of money to build more productive capacity. ..."
"... And the reasons for this dilemma are now well-known: first, when companies have expanded in recent years, the modern factories have relied on robotics with few humans required; second, the companies put many manufacturing sites offshore so they can exploit cheap labor; and third, the shrinking middle class has meant fewer customers, leaving corporations little motivation to build more factories. ..."
"... Blessed with a talented pitch man named Ronald Reagan, "supply-side" became the new product to sell. After taking office, Reagan pressed for a sharp reduction in the marginal tax rates, slashing the top rates for the wealthy from around 70 percent to 28 percent. Along with the tax cuts, Reagan also initiated an aggressive military buildup. ..."
"... After George W. Bush claimed the White House in 2001, "supply-side" dogma was back in vogue. Bush pushed through more tax cuts mostly for the rich, reducing the top marginal rate to 35 percent and creating an even bigger tax break for investors, cutting the capital gains rate to 15 percent. Combined with Bush's two wars and other policies, the surplus soon disappeared and was replaced by another yawning deficit. ..."
"... The Right also has worked diligently to create false narratives to convince many Americans that their hatred of a strong federal government links them to the Founders. Many Tea Partiers have bought into the historical lie that the Founders wrote the Constitution to limit the power of the federal government and to promote "states' rights" the near opposite of what the framers actually were doing. ..."
Exclusive: Any rational assessment of America's economic troubles would identify Ronald
Reagan's reckless "supply-side" economics as a chief culprit, but that hasn't stopped Republican
presidential hopefuls, led by Newt Gingrich, from selling this discredited theory to a gullible GOP
base, reports Robert Parry.
Despite Newt Gingrich's claim that "supply-side" economic theories have "worked," the truth is
that America's three-decade experiment with low tax rates on the rich, lax regulation of corporations
and "free trade" has been a catastrophic failure, creating massive federal debt, devastating the
middle class and off-shoring millions of American jobs.
It has "worked" almost exclusively for the very rich, yet the former House speaker and the three
other Republican presidential hopefuls are urging the country to double-down on this losing gamble,
often to the cheers of their audiences - like one Florida woman who said she had lost her job and
medical insurance but still applauded the idea of more "free-market" solutions.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich posing with his third wife, Callista
Gingrich even boasts of his role in pioneering these theories of massive tax cuts favoring the
rich, combined with sharp reductions in the role of government. That approach, once famously mocked
by George H.W. Bush as "voodoo economics," was supposed to spur businesses to expand production (the
"supply side"), thus creating jobs and boosting revenues from all the commercial activity.
"I worked with Ronald Reagan to develop supply-side economics in the late '70s, along with
Jack Kemp and Art Laffer and Jude Wanniski and others," Gingrich declared at a recent town hall event.
"We ended up passing it into law in '81. At the time it was very bold. People called it 'voodoo economics.'
It had one great virtue: it worked."
But that is not what the historical record really shows.
In 1980, I was working as an Associated Press correspondent covering budget and economic issues
on Capitol Hill and at the time, the "supply-siders" had two key arguments in their favor: first,
the economy had stagnated in the 1970s largely due to oil price shocks, inflation and an aging industrial
base.
Their second key advantage was that nobody could say for sure what the results of the "supply-side"
experiment would be. There was little empirical data to assess how radical tax cuts would play out
in the modern economy. One could make common-sense judgments, as George H.W. Bush had done with his
"voodoo" remark, but you couldn't see the future.
No More Mystery
Now, however, with three decades of experience with the experiment, the fallacies of "supply-side"
economics are no longer a mystery. For instance, a major obstacle to today's economic recovery has
been the absence of "demand-side" consumers, not the availability of money to build more productive
capacity.
And the reason that there are fewer consumers is that the Great American Middle Class, which
the federal government helped build and nourish from the New Deal through the GI Bill to investments
in infrastructure and technology in the Sixties and Seventies, has been savaged over the past three
decades.
Though many Americans were able to cover up for their declining economic prospects with excessive
borrowing for a while, the Wall Street crash of 2008 exposed the hollowing out of the middle class.
So today, businesses are sitting on vast sums of cash some estimates put the amount at about $2 trillion.
And the reasons for this dilemma are now well-known: first, when companies have expanded in
recent years, the modern factories have relied on robotics with few humans required; second, the
companies put many manufacturing sites offshore so they can exploit cheap labor; and third, the shrinking
middle class has meant fewer customers, leaving corporations little motivation to build more factories.
For Americans, this has represented a downward spiral with no end in sight. American workers,
whether blue- or white-collar, know that computers and other technological advancements have made
many of their old jobs obsolete. And modern communications have allowed even expert service jobs,
like computer tech advice, to go to places like India.
While painful to millions of Americans who find their talents treated as surplus, these developments
do not by themselves have to be negative. After all, humans have dreamed for centuries about technology
freeing them from the grind of tedious work and freeing up society to invest in a higher quality
of life, for today's citizens and for posterity.
The problem is that the only practical way for a democratic society to achieve that goal is to
have a vibrant government using the tax structure to divert a significant amount of the super-profits
from the rich into the public coffers for investments in everything from infrastructure to education
to arts and sciences, including research and development for future generations, even possibly Gingrich's
"big idea" of a colony on the moon.
In fact, that kind of virtuous cycle was the experience of the United States from the 1930s through
the 1970s, with the federal government taxing the top tranches of wealth at up to 90 percent and
using those funds to build major electrification projects like the Hoover Dam and the Tennessee Valley
Authority, to educate World War II veterans through the GI Bill, to connect the nation through the
Interstate Highway system, to launch the Space Program, and to create today's Internet.
Out of those efforts emerged robust economic growth as private corporations took advantage of
the nation's modern infrastructure and the technological advancements. Millions of good-paying jobs
were created for the world's best-trained work force, giving rise to the Great American Middle Class.
The obvious answer was to keep this up, with the government investing in new productive areas, like
renewable energy.
Demonizing 'Guv-mint'
Instead, facing economic headwinds in the 1970s, caused in part by rising energy costs, Americans
grew anxious about their futures, making them ripe for a new right-wing propaganda campaign demonizing
"guv-mint" and telling white men, in particular, that the "free market" was their friend.
Blessed with a talented pitch man named Ronald Reagan, "supply-side" became the new product
to sell. After taking office, Reagan pressed for a sharp reduction in the marginal tax rates, slashing
the top rates for the wealthy from around 70 percent to 28 percent. Along with the tax cuts, Reagan
also initiated an aggressive military buildup.
The results were devastating to the U.S. fiscal position. The federal debt soared, quadrupling
during the 12 years of Reagan and Bush Sr. As a percentage of the gross domestic product, federal
debt was actually declining in the 1970s, dropping to 26 percent of GDP, before exploding under Reagan,
rising to 41 percent by the end of the 1980s. The shared wealth of the country also diverged, with
the rich claiming a bigger and bigger piece of the national economic pie.
The nation's debt crisis only began to subside after tax increases were enacted under President
George H.W. Bush and President Bill Clinton, with Clinton's tax hike pushing the top marginal rate
back up to 39.6 percent. At the time, Gingrich warned that the Clinton tax hike would lead to an
economic catastrophe.
The actual result was a booming economy, spurred strongly by the federal government's new "information
super-highway," the Internet. The Clinton years also saw low unemployment and a balanced budget by
the late 1990s. The debt-to-GDP measure declined from about 43 percent to 33 percent and was on course
toward zero within a decade.
Ironically Gingrich also claims credit for that because as House speaker he worked with Clinton
on some cost-cutting measures, but Clinton credits the 1993 tax increase, which passed without a
single Republican vote, as the key factor in the budget turnaround.
After George W. Bush claimed the White House in 2001, "supply-side" dogma was back in vogue.
Bush pushed through more tax cuts mostly for the rich, reducing the top marginal rate to 35 percent
and creating an even bigger tax break for investors, cutting the capital gains rate to 15 percent.
Combined with Bush's two wars and other policies, the surplus soon disappeared and was replaced by
another yawning deficit.
Even as most Americans struggled to hold a job and pay their bills, America's super-rich lived
a life of unparalleled luxury. With this concentration of money also had come a concentration of
power, as right-wing operatives were hired to build a sophisticated media apparatus and think tanks
to push often with populist rhetoric the policies that were dividing the country along the lines
of a pampered one percent and a pressured 99 percent.
Many Americans, especially white men, heard their personal grievances echoed in the angry voices
of Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, Michael Savage and Glenn Beck all well-compensated propagandists
for "the one percent."
Lesson Unlearned
Now, looking back over the economic and fiscal history of the past three decades, you might think
that few Americans would be fooled again by this sucker bet on "supply-side." But the Tea Partiers
and many rank-and-file Republicans seem ready to put what's left of their money back down on the
gambling table.
All four remaining Republican hopefuls Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul and Gingrich have
proposed lower tax rates especially on the rich with the same enduring but fanciful faith in "supply-side"
economics.
Gingrich has gone so far as to advocate eliminating the capital gains tax entirely. It's already
down to 15 percent, meaning that many super-rich, from financier Warren Buffett to Mitt Romney, can
live off their investments and pay a lower tax rate than what many middle-class Americans pay on
their wages and salaries. In a recent Florida debate, Romney noted he would pay virtually no federal
income tax under Gingrich's plan.
The Republicans seem to be counting on the parallel propaganda campaign of demonizing "guv-mint."
They're pinning their hopes on an ill-informed electorate (especially white men) siding with "the
one percent" over their own working- and middle-class interests.
The GOP hopes also may hinge significantly on how determined some whites are to get the country's
first black president out of the White House. Historically, demagogic U.S. politicians have had great
success in exploiting racial resentments, although these days often with coded language like Gingrich
calling Barack Obama "the food-stamp president."
The Right also has worked diligently to create false narratives to convince many Americans
that their hatred of a strong federal government links them to the Founders. Many Tea Partiers have
bought into the historical lie that the Founders wrote the Constitution to limit the power of the
federal government and to promote "states' rights" the near opposite of what the framers actually
were doing.
Led by Virginians Gen. George Washington and James Madison, the Constitutional Convention in 1787
threw out the Articles of Confederation, which had made the states supreme and the federal government
a supplicant.
The Constitution reversed that situation, eliminating state "independence" and bestowing national
sovereignty onto the federal Republic representing "we the people of the United States." Contrary
to the Tea Party's false narrative, the Constitution represented the single biggest assertion of
federal power in U.S. history.
When the Tea Partiers dress up in Revolutionary War costumes, they apparently don't know that
their notion of a weak central government and state "sovereignty" was anathema to the key framers
of the Constitution, especially to Washington who had watched his soldiers suffer under the ineffectual
Articles of Confederation.
And, when the Tea Partiers wave their "Don't Tread on Me" flags of a coiled snake, they don't
seem to know that the warning was directed at the British Empire and that the banner aimed at fellow
Americans was Benjamin Franklin's image of a snake severed into various pieces representing the colonies/states
with the admonishment "Join, or Die."
Nevertheless, false narratives and false arguments can be as effective as real ones to a thoroughly
misinformed population. Thus, many middle- and working-class Americans still cheer when Newt Gingrich
references Ronald Reagan and his "supply-side" economics.
But the failure of Reagan's economic strategy should be obvious to anyone who is not fully deluded
by right-wing propaganda. Not only has the national debt skyrocketed over the past three decades,
but whatever economic benefits that have been produced have gone overwhelmingly to the wealthy while
the nation as a whole has suffered.
[For more on related topics, see Robert Parry's Lost History, Secrecy & Privilege and
Neck Deep , now available in a three-book set for the discount price of only $29. For details,
click
here .]
Robert Parry broke many of the Iran-Contra stories in the 1980s for the Associated Press
and Newsweek. His latest book, Neck Deep: The Disastrous Presidency of George W. Bush, was written
with two of his sons, Sam and Nat, and can be ordered at
neckdeepbook.com . His two previous books,
Secrecy & Privilege: The Rise of the Bush Dynasty from Watergate to Iraq and Lost History: Contras,
Cocaine, the Press & 'Project Truth' are also available there.
"... He [Bush] signaled the shift [in strategy] in a speech here [in Pittsburgh] last week when
he charged that Reagan had made 'a list of phony promises' on defense, energy and economic policy. And
he labeled Reagan's tax cut proposal 'voodoo economic policy' and 'economic madness.'" ..."
"... Let me just emphasize that the words "voodoo economic policy" are Bush's words. The source
is a reputable one that is easily available even at second-tier universities, so I think this counts
as pretty strong evidence to anyone with a reasonably open mind. I think even someone with a Ph.D. in
history from Harvard might concede that it is at least a scrap of evidence. ..."
Sam Houston State University historian, writing on the Forbes web site, has a very odd
blog post this morning. He criticizes MIT economist Simon Johnson for attributing the term "voodoo
economics" to George H.W. Bush. Domitrovic calls it a "myth" that the elder Bush ever uttered those
words. "You'd think there'd be a scrap of evidence dating from 1980 in support of this claim. In
fact there is none," he says.
Perhaps down in Texas they don't have access to the Los Angeles Times. If one goes to the April
14, 1980 issue and turns to page 20, one will find an articled by Times staff reporter Robert Shogan,
entitled, "Bush Ends His Waiting Game, Attacks Reagan." Following is the 4th paragraph from that
news report:
"He [Bush] signaled the shift [in strategy] in a speech here [in Pittsburgh] last week when
he charged that Reagan had made 'a list of phony promises' on defense, energy and economic policy.
And he labeled Reagan's tax cut proposal 'voodoo economic policy' and 'economic madness.'"
I've attached a PDF file of the Times article to this post for the benefit of the skeptical.
Let me just emphasize that the words "voodoo economic policy" are Bush's words. The source
is a reputable one that is easily available even at second-tier universities, so I think this counts
as pretty strong evidence to anyone with a reasonably open mind. I think even someone with a Ph.D.
in history from Harvard might concede that it is at least a scrap of evidence.
I suppose that is one wanted to be pedantic, one could continue to argue that Bush never said
the precise words "voodoo economics," that somehow or other "voodoo economic policy" is something
completely different. I will allow others to debate the point.
"... The other is that the centre-left (aka 'soft" neoliberals) took economic growth largely for granted. New Labour believed that if it could provide stable macroeconomic policy and an attractive location for investment then growth would follow. That might have been the case in the 90s. But it isn't true in our new era of secular stagnation. We need supply-side socialism. ..."
"... Obama averaged 1.7 percent annual growth over 8 years after an epic financial crisis. ..."
"... As Dillow points out, economic stagnation causes politics to get meaner. ..."
Good post by Chris Dillow who comes out of the closet and
names the opposition (foe?) of neoliberalism which is
socialism.
"The victories of Trump and Brexit, and rise of
the National Front in France and AfD in Germany all vindicate
Ben Friedman's point that economic stagnation makes people
meaner. It causes a rise in right-wing extremism, not
leftism.
...
The other is that the centre-left (aka 'soft"
neoliberals) took economic growth largely for granted.
New Labour believed that if it could provide stable
macroeconomic policy and an attractive location for
investment then growth would follow. That might have been the
case in the 90s. But it isn't true in our new era of secular
stagnation. We need supply-side socialism.
"
This is what Krugman is missing with his discussion of
being near full employment with Trump planning fiscal
expansion. This is what the Fed is missing with its
determination to "normalize."
(I hate to be divisive and criticize Krugman.)
Maybe he's right and we won't have another major financial
crisis in a while. We'll move off of the ZLB as a mild
recession is followed by more growth and above target
inflation. It's possible. I hope he's right. But the history
is one of a shampoo economy: bubble, bust, repeat where
growth after the bust is too slow and recoveries are too
shallow. And labor gets the shaft.
Obama averaged 1.7 percent annual growth over 8 years
after an epic financial crisis.
This what we'd be
talking about if not for President Insane Clown Posse and his
Juggalos.
(It wasn't all Obama's fault of course, but in a
way it doesn't matter whose fault it was.
As Dillow
points out, economic stagnation causes politics to get
meaner.
)
"Bon courage, Benoît! As Ali said:
"Impossible is not a fact. It's an opinion. Impossible is not
a declaration. It's a dare. Impossible is potential.
Impossible is temporary. Impossible is nothing."
There is a
stronger tradition of social democracy in the EU that could
coalesce around a candidate such as Benoît Hamon than there
is here in the US. FDR was a long time ago and still rather
conservative by post WWII European standards until
Thatcherism caught on there. You will note how much more
support that Sanders got from millennials than from our
generations. It will take more time here.
Good point, but in recent years it has been the populist
right who has really been the beneficiary in the U.S. and
Europe, with their scapegoating of globalization and
immigrants.
"If the national Democratic Party had more cultural appeal
to working-class whites, they might have been able to stop
the bleeding enough to hold states like Pennsylvania,
Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin or North Carolina."
Yeah you won't cultural appeal but not so much that you
abandon your principles. Calling them deplorable doesn't
help.
I feel the Democrats need to better appeal to them more on
the economic front. Instead of giving speeches at Goldman
Sachs functions, campaign in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Instead of an infrastructure proposal of $275 billion over
5 years, go big like Bernie or the Senate Democrats with $1
trillion over 10 years. Trump went big with his rhetoric.
We'll see if he delivers anything.
"The white working class, even outside the south, has been
moving away from the Democratic Party for 20 years. Check out
the graph."
Agreed. I travel (a lot) and every hotel I stay
at has Faux News in the lobby (a large percentage don't even
have MSNBC as part of the cable in the room upstairs, every
restaurant/bar I go to has Faux News on. There are no liberal
talk radio programs (outside of Sirius), so every plumber,
sales guy driving to their next client, taxi driver, et al,
only hear a right wing message. Anyone who disagrees with
them is part of the "lame-stream media".
Undeniably, they control the messaging.
This is why they believe the economy was still bad last
qtr, that Democrats raised taxes, etc.
Of all the ways Reagan ruined our country, I'd argue the
worst thing he did (besides tripling the debt) was getting
rid of the "fairness doctrine" which required presenting both
sides of a discussion equally. This gave rise (IMO) to the
hate radio and the alt-fact universe we now live in.
And agreed re Fox news
too. When it is on, I always ask the desk clerk to change to
something nonpolitical like the Weather Channel or ESPN. I've
never had them refusse. On Inauguration Day I had to do that
at a sports bar! The bartender actually thanked me.
"The white working class, even outside the south, has been
moving away from the Democratic Party for 20 years."
Thanks
to Bill Clinton and the Democratic shift away from class
based economic programs to an exclusive focus on identity
issues. This is not an either/or choice, as Dillow points out
in his piece, and the Democrats did both successfully for
about 20 years in the 19560s-1970s. The DLC Democrats, like
the Clintons, abandoned economic justice/labor issues in the
mid-70s in order to attract more wealthy donors and overcome
the overwhelming fundraising advantage of the Republicans at
that time.
I think move to the right might continue for some time.
Clinton Democrats betrayal of working class give far right a
huge boost, to say nothing about paving way to Caesarism and
discarding the Democratic governance like used shoe box.
From comments:
"what is termed the Right is pretty much what would have
been [neoliberal] centre leftism not that long ago.
In practical terms there is nothing between the
governments of Cameron or May vs those of Blair.
"...And the likely failures of Brexit and Trumponomics might
well cause some kind of backlash.
There is, however, a more
pessimistic reading.
For one thing, we might not see the sort of backlash we
want..."
[That is what we have gotten already, backlash against
center left neoliberal mediocrity. Still with no other game
in town and a POTUS bound and determined to motivate liberal
voters any way that he can then a return to a center left
voting public and the policies that it will tolerate is not
so unlikely.]
The center left will still need to do something about low
wages, shitty jobs, and the high cost of higher education if
it wants to hang around for very long though.
Madeleine Albright got her start as the protégé of notorious cold warrior Zbigniew Brzezinski,
who was her dissertation advisor at Columbia. As Jimmy Carter's National Security Advisor Z-big
put Albright on as his special assistant. The next time a Democrat occupied the White House she
was UN ambassador in Clinton's first term and secretary of state in his second. Madeleine Albright
famously asserted in a 1996 60 Minutes interview that although the US blockade of Iraq which she
vigorously championed killed a half million Iraqi children that "...it was a hard choice but it
was worth it..."
Enrique Ferro's insight: "Progressives" is the name Democrats call themselves when they need to draw
attention away from the greedy and murderous one percenters who actually call the shots in their
party. Lazy, hypocritical progressive followers protest the unconstitutional machinations of Republican
administrations like those of George W. Bush and Donald Trump while they ignore excuse the same crimes
when committed by Democrats like the Clintons or Barack Obama.
Nationalism is natural. You either have nations or you have one big all-powerful world government.
Caring about your own nation first is common sense. Incredible that Trump even has to say it.
But in this crazy political environment, it has to be said.
If you don't put yourself first, you will stop existing. If you don't put your nation first,
it will stop existing.
All software developers understand modular design. Nature is designed modularly, and human
society is part of nature.
We have nations because we are part of nature.
Sure you can love the whole world if you want. But if you care more about the rest of the world
than your own nation, you are nuts. And yes, it is normal to be nuts these days.
DrDick -> realpc... , -1
"Nationalism is natural"
Proving once again that you are an idiot who knows nothing. Nationalism is an artificial construct
which only emerges in the late 18th-early 19th centuries, and does not spread widely until the
late 19th-early 20th centuries.
"Nationalism is an artificial construct which only emerges in the late 18th-early 19th centuries,
and does not spread widely until the late 19th-early 20th centuries."
Nationalism is not something fixed. There are various flavors of nationalism. Old flavor was
so called "ethnic nationalism". Now so called "cultural nationalism" (the idea that the language
and culture defines the belonging to the particular nation, not so much ethnicity ) is pretty
widespread, if not dominant.
As for your "late 18th" century origin, I have doubts. What Napoleon empire represented, if
not the Triumph of French nationalism. And Waterloo was fought when? Right, 18 June 1815. This
is the date when "old continental powers" defeated French nationalism.
Can you explain to me this discrepancy, please?
== quote from Wikipedia ==
Napoleon Bonaparte promoted French nationalism based upon the ideals of the French Revolution
such as the idea of "liberty, equality, fraternity" and justified French expansionism and French
military campaigns on the claim that France had the right to spread the enlightened ideals of
the French Revolution across Europe, and also to expand France into its so-called "natural borders."
Napoleon's invasions of other nations had the effect of spreading the concept of nationalism outside
France.[3]
== end of quote ==
My impression is that French nationalism emerged from wars with England which produced a great
icon of French nationalism, Joan of Arc. And that happened much earlier then late 18th century.
And that American exceptionalism is nothing but a variation of this version of French nationalism.
So here is some quick Google information about native American tribes who fought over limited
resources. I wonder if that was an artificial construct as well? Or if one tribe fought other
tribes to help their own families out. I wonder if a starving neanderthal would share the meat
off of a recent kill with a neanderthal not part of his tribe? Would that be an artificial construct?
Surely Germany came into existence in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, but before that,
the groups that became Germany were just as nationalistic as they were after they became Germany
. . . they just defined their nation in more limited terms.
Sorry, I am just a stupid engineer, and make sure that the building that you live and work in
will stand up in an earthquake, yet, I am probably too stupid to ever know what you know. But
that said, I didn't know that I am stupid, so I will probably ask a question that will make a
genius like yourself roll their eyes in disgust that I was ever awarded a degree from an american
university . . . but I don't have time to read four different authors on the subject of a simple
blog post, so I am going to ask it anyways . . .
you said that nationalism is an artificial construct that only came around about 200 years
ago, and I came back with some ideas about, if that were the case, then why did different indian
tribes battle over scarce resources (and also simply assumed that ancient humans behaved very
similar to native american tribes). You rebutted that by insulting my intelligence, pointing me
to four obscure academic authors (if I was as cool and as smart as Good Will Hunting, I am sure
I would have read and remembered all the authors that you are pointing me to already, but alas,
I am not), and then said that up until 20,000 years ago, there was surprisingly little conflict
among people.
So, what is it, was nationalism something that came about 20,000 years ago, or was it something
that came about 200 years ago. And did indian tribes wage wars against each other? If they did,
is that a form of nationalism, or is it different? If it is different, explain how.
IF you are not smart enough to be able to answer these simple questions that support what you
have asserted, then I would suggest that you don't go on message boards and insult the intelligence
of others!
"Amgen CEO Robert Bradway told President Trump at today's
White House meeting that his company is adding 1,600 jobs in
the U.S. this year."
Amgen had $21,662 million in sales in 2015 with $7978
million in profits. Its worldwide taxes were only $1039
million for an effective tax rate of only 13 percent. How did
they pull the trick off? Their 10-K filing is a little sparse
in information but does admit:
"The effective tax rates for the years ended December 31,
2015, 2014 and 2013, are different from the federal statutory
rates primarily as a result of indefinitely invested earnings
of our foreign operations. We do not provide for U.S. income
taxes on undistributed earnings of our foreign operations
that are intended to be invested indefinitely outside the
United States."
Did the White House discuss this massive base erosion to
tax havens with no repatriation of earnings? Of course one
has to wonder about their transfer pricing profile. All I
could get from their 10-K was:
"We perform most of our bulk manufacturing, formulation,
fill and finish activities in our Puerto Rico facility and
also conduct finish activities in the Netherlands. We also
utilize third-party contract manufacturers to supplement the
bulk, formulation, fill, and/or packaging of certain Amgen
principal products ... We operate distribution centers in the
United States-principally in Kentucky and California-and the
Netherlands for worldwide distribution of the majority of our
commercial and clinical products. We also use third-party
distributors to supplement distribution of our products
worldwide ... We have major R&D centers in several locations
throughout the United States (including Thousand Oaks and San
Francisco, California and Cambridge, Massachusetts), Iceland
and in the United Kingdom, as well as smaller research
centers and development facilities globally."
So we have three basic functions here: (1) production
offshore; (2) local distribution; and (3) R&D done in the
U.S. ...
couple of points -- as no doubt you know, Puerto Rico is
offshore if you want it to be (e.g. no US corporate income
tax until profits repatriated, can operate your puerto rican
operations as a foreign controlled company etc). but was
still interested in the use of PR and the Netherlands.
Personal interest, given my work on Puerto Rico, as PR has
been losing out to Ireland. but key point is that export
income from PR can be tax deferred indefinitely as I
understand it.
and i am increasingly interested in how destination based
cash flow taxation would change firms incentives. Export
income is entirely untaxed, so effective tax rate would be
what -- 20% of profits on US sales and 0% of profits on
global sales, so still very low. Actually I wonder if the
reform might even reduce Amgen's US tax, as export income is
excluded from revenues, potentially creating a tax loss on
the portion of RnD that generates global revenues (US costs,
zero taxable income on exports, = tax loss on exports i
think, but i am still not sure on this angle). curious what
you think"
Of course expect PeterK to launch another one of his
pointless rants since he has no clue what any of this means.
BTW - Amgen would see this as a major reduction in taxes.
Other Big Pharma would also see this as a tax break. Which is
why all progressives should oppose this.
Brad is right
about changing incentives. The international tax sharks are
already circling the wagons on how to game DBCFT. Alas Dean
Baker has been confused by Alan Auerbach's claims to to the
contrary. Of course when I point out this reality, PeterK
accuses me of insulting people. Alas, this is the kind of
nonsense one gets when one tries to contribute to the
discussion here.
Many economists tend to be global-egalitarians and believe borders
have little significance in evaluations of justice and equity. From
this perspective, policies must focus on enhancing income
opportunities for the global poor. Political systems, however, are
organized around nation states, and create a bias towards
domestic-egalitarianism.
How significant is the tension between these two perspectives?
Consider the China "trade shock." Expanding trade with China has
aggravated inequality in the United States, while ameliorating global
inequality. This is the consequence of the fact that the bulk of
global inequality is accounted for by income differences across
countries rather than within countries.
But the China shock is receding and other low-income countries are
unlikely to replicate China's export-oriented industrialization
experience. So perhaps the tension is going away?
Not so fast. The tension is even greater somewhere else: Relaxing
restrictions on cross-border labor mobility would have an even
stronger positive effect on global inequality, at the cost of adverse
effects at the lower end of labor markets in rich economies. On the
other hand, international labor mobility has some advantages compared
to further liberalizing international trade in goods.
Is Global Equality the Enemy of National Equality?
By Dani Rodrik
Abstract
The bulk of global inequality is accounted for by income
differences across countries rather than within countries.
Expanding trade with China has aggravated inequality in some
advanced economies, while ameliorating global inequality. But
the "China shock" is receding and other low-income countries
are unlikely to replicate China's export-oriented
industrialization experience. Relaxing restrictions on
cross-border labor mobility might have an even stronger
positive effect on global inequality. However it also raises
a similar tension. While there would likely be adverse
effects on low-skill workers in the advanced economies,
international labor mobility has some advantages compared to
further liberalizing international trade in goods. I argue
that none of the contending perspectives --
national-egalitarian, cosmopolitan, utilitarian -- provides
on its own an adequate frame for evaluating the consequences.
[ An excellent and necessary paper for which I am
grateful. Now for another reading. ]
Is Global Equality the Enemy of National Equality?
By Dani Rodrik
Whether one thinks the last quarter century has been good
or bad for equity depends critically on whether one takes a
national or global perspective. Within nations, inequality
has typically risen in rich and poor nations alike. (Latin
American countries, where we observe the highest levels of
inequality in the world, were the only ones that
significantly bucked the trend.) When commentators talk about
inequality, this is usually what they have in mind. But there
is another way of looking at inequality, which is to
disregard national borders and focus on the distribution of
income across all households in the world. Analyzed in this
way global inequality actually fell sharply over the same
period, thanks in large part to the very rapid growth of
China and India, the world's two largest developing
economies. In fact, this transformation has been so momentous
that the contours of the global distribution of income have
changed drastically. The two humps in the distribution –
reflecting the all-too recent reality of a world divided into
two clear segments, one small and rich, the other large and
poor – have disappeared, with an emergent global "middle
class" filling out the valley between the two humps (Figure
1).
The bulk of global income equality today is accounted for
by income gaps between countries, rather than within them.
This explains why economic growth in countries like China and
India has a significant positive effect on global equality,
even when inequality rises domestically in those countries,
as it has done substantially in China's case.
To drive home the importance of between-country gaps, I
sometimes ask my audience the following question: would you
rather be rich in a poor country, or poor in a rich country?
I tell them to assume they care only about their own income
and purchasing power....
Among the excellent aspects, the question is raised as to
what development means for relatively poor countries in which
growth even when significant for a time shuts out much of a
population; what has to be sacrificed by the fortunate for
growth to be inclusive and as such sustainable; after all
among the poorer countries growth has been decidedly subject
to disruption for decades now; supposing trade is to be
limited as a driver of growth, what then?
If people with no wealth continue to procreate
at high rates, of course inequality will only grow. The real
issue here is population growth. The poor are replicating at
high rates, and the wealthy do not. This accounts for the
growth of so much of this 'natural' inequality.
There is a major problem with Rodrik's piece. Between country
inequality has been declining steadily since the 1990s, while
within country inequality has been increasing since the
1980s. As I keep saying, the only real beneficiaries of
globalization have been the wealthy of the world.
Well, my dear, the truth is so simple that it eludes us. If
American families have enough money, they will succeed.
My
Dad was part of the cohort from WW2. They came back and were
not about to succumb to those who did so little.I remember,
during a strike, him going out with a bat to put an end to
the company running scabs. They beat the hell out of them.
Bull. We are of the same generation and the 1950s was a
period of almost unprecedented prosperity and upward
mobility. Several factors drove this. First was the GI Bill,
with free college and low cost home loans for vets. Second
was the emergence or expansion of several industries which
created a high demand for skilled labor and technical
professionals (electronics, aerospace, petrochemicals, etc.).
Third was massive government infrastructure investment, like
the interstate highway system. Finally, strong unions
fighting for the interests of the workers. Violence and
bigotry help no one and the Tangerine Turd in the White House
will do nothing good for working people.
The problem is that every nation that has ever developed in
terms of productive capacity and increased living standards
on this here earth of ours has done so by erecting some type
of barrier. There really is no other way, at least not one
that has been demonstrated to work. The barriers may take
different forms and be more or less penetrable, but they
remain. Before the turbine and diesel engines, transportation
could be considered a barrier, but it is not much of a
barrier today.
One of the big problems we have nowadays is
trying to solve problems that are basically too big to be
solved, let alone solved simplistically. The nation state,
for all its myriad faults, was a driving force for
development and our current level of wealth. It was a
powerful counter to the multi-nationalism of the feudal era
which had an international upper class that was favored over
the actually productive urban and trading classes.
Encouraging multi-national corporations and coddling
world-wide elites by trying to provide them the benefits of
development without its political costs has been a formula
for disaster.
Nationalism is natural. You either have nations or you have
one big all-powerful world government.
Caring about your
own nation first is common sense. Incredible that Trump even
has to say it. But in this crazy political environment, it
has to be said.
If you don't put yourself first, you will stop existing.
If you don't put your nation first, it will stop existing.
All software developers understand modular design. Nature
is designed modularly, and human society is part of nature.
We have nations because we are part of nature.
Sure you can love the whole world if you want. But if you
care more about the rest of the world than your own nation,
you are nuts. And yes, it is normal to be nuts these days.
Proving once again that you are an
idiot who knows nothing. Nationalism is an artificial
construct which only emerges in the late 18th-early 19th
centuries, and does not spread widely until the late
19th-early 20th centuries.
So here is some quick google information about native
american tribes who fought over limited resources. I wonder
if that was an artificial construct as well? Or if one tribe
fought other tribes to help their own families out. I wonder
if a starving neanderthal would share the meat off of a
recent kill with a neanderthal not part of his tribe? Would
that be an artificial construct? Surely Germany came into
existence in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, but
before that, the groups that became Germany were just as
nationalistic as they were after they became Germany . . .
they just defined their nation in more limited terms.
*sigh*
People pay me good money to teach them about this stuff, but
I do not think either of you could pass the entrance exam.
Read Benedict Anderson, "Imagined Communities", or the works
of E. J. Hobsbawm and T. O. Ranger on nationalism to start
with. The truth is that mobile foragers(what all humans were
until about 20,000 years ago) are not really very
territorial. See the work of Brian Ferguson on the
anthropology of warfare.
Sorry, I am just a stupid engineer, and make sure that the
building that you live and work in will stand up in an
earthquake, yet, I am probably too stupid to ever know what
you know. But that said, I didn't know that I am stupid, so I
will probably ask a question that will make a genius like
yourself roll their eyes in disgust that I was ever awarded a
degree from an american university . . . but I don't have
time to read four different authors on the subject of a
simple blog post, so I am going to ask it anyways . . . you
said that nationalism is an artificial construct that only
came around about 200 years ago, and I came back with some
ideas about, if that were the case, then why did different
indian tribes battle over scarce resources (and also simply
assumed that ancient humans behaved very similar to native
american tribes). You rebutted that by insulting my
intelligence, pointing me to four obscure academic authors
(if I was as cool and as smart as Good Will Hunting, I am
sure I would have read and remembered all the authors that
you are pointing me to already, but alas, I am not), and then
said that up until 20,000 years ago, there was surprisingly
little conflict among people. So, what is it, was nationalism
something that came about 20,000 years ago, or was it
something that came about 200 years ago. And did indian
tribes wage wars against each other? If they did, is that a
form of nationalism, or is it different? If it is different,
explain how.
IF you are not smart enough to be able to
answer these simple questions that support what you have
asserted, then I would suggest that you don't go on message
boards and insult the intelligence of others!
Menzie Chinn * introduces a new asset to economist
blogging. Joel Trachtman ** provides an excellent discussion
of whether the Destination-Based Cash Flow Tax violates WTO
rules concluding that it does. He adds:
"If enacted, the plan would likely lead to lengthy
litigation at the World Trade Organization. A (likely) ruling
that the tax is an income tax, and is applied in a
discriminatory manner, would mean that exempting exports
would be considered an illegal subsidy and taxes on imports
an illegal tariff. This could lead to trade sanctions against
the U.S. and open the door to counter sanctions and the start
of a trade war."
President Trump strikes me as someone who could care less
about WTO rules. And starting a trade war fits his grand
design of governance. As Yoda noted:
Another good article by Rodrik but a weakness of his analysis
is that welfare is assumed to be based upon real income and
not relative income with ones "group". Most analyses of
welfare find that relative income is quite important.
Obviously if one assumes that one's reference group is the
world, then the problem goes away; but empirically this is
not the case. Assuming that welfare is strongly affected by
relative income with a group which is smaller than the world,
then global equality is no longer welfare maximizing. Those
interested in these issues might be interested in Robert
Shelburne, A Utilitarian Analysis of Trade Liberalization,
available as a UN working paper.
Much like how the biggest environmentalist is the one who
already has her house built, the economists safely in their
ivory tower and comfortable with their tenured positions in
academia were more than happy to volunteer the American
working class to give up some of their wealth so that people
living in extreme property in the developing world could have
slightly better positions. I am glad to see that this is what
you guys argued for with all of your "free trade" agreements
that you pushed for over the last several decades. Sadly,
this is exactly what led us to Trump as president.
Their models told them precisely that some people would
suffer and others gain, but also that with appropriate
redistribution everybody could gain. But appropriate
redistribution was never forthcoming. Time for a national
dividend.
WASHINGTON - Republicans muscled through
committee approval of President Donald Trump's nominees for
Treasury and Health on Wednesday, suspending a key Senate
rule in the latest escalation of partisan tensions in
Congress.
Democrats boycotted a Finance Committee meeting and
Republicans responded by temporarily scuttling a rule
requiring at least one Democrat to be present for votes. The
committee then approved Rep. Tom Price, R-Ga., to become
Health secretary and financier Steve Mnuchin to be Treasury
secretary by a pair of 14-0 votes.
Democrats had been demanding time to ask more questions
about both nominees. Democrats say there were unresolved
questions about both nominees' financial backgrounds.
Separately, the Senate planned to vote later in the day on
Trump's nomination of Rex Tillerson for secretary of state
after several Democrats crossed party lines to back the
former Exxon Mobil CEO.
"... By Daron Acemoglu, Professor of Applied Economics, MIT and James Robinson, Professor, University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy. Originally published at VoxEU ..."
"... Editor's note: This column first appeared as a chapter in the Vox eBook, The Long Economic and Political Shadow of History, Volume 1, available to download here . ..."
"... "The discovery of America, the rounding of the Cape, opened up fresh ground for the rising bourgeoisie." ..."
Posted on
February 1, 2017
by
Yves Smith
By Daron Acemoglu, Professor of Applied Economics, MIT and James
Robinson, Professor, University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy.
Originally published at
VoxEU
Editor's note: This column first appeared as a
chapter in the Vox eBook, The Long Economic and Political Shadow of History,
Volume 1, available to download
here
.
The immense economic inequality we observe in the world today didn't happen
overnight, or even in the past century. It is the path-dependent outcome of a
multitude of historical processes, one of the most important of which has been
European colonialism. Retracing our steps 500 years, or back to the verge of
this colonial project, we see little inequality and small differences between
poor and rich countries (perhaps a factor of four). Now the differences are a
factor of more than 40, if we compare the richest to the poorest countries in
the world. What role did colonialism play in this?
In our research with Simon Johnson we have shown that colonialism has shaped
modern inequality in several fundamental, but heterogeneous, ways. In Europe
the discovery of the Americas and the emergence of a mass colonial project,
first in the Americas, and then, subsequently, in Asia and Africa, potentially
helped to spur institutional and economic development, thus setting in motion
some of the prerequisites for what was to become the industrial revolution
(Acemoglu et al. 2005). But the way this worked was conditional on
institutional differences within Europe. In places like Britain, where an early
struggle against the monarchy had given parliament and society the upper hand,
the discovery of the Americas led to the further empowerment of mercantile and
industrial groups, who were able to benefit from the new economic opportunities
that the Americas, and soon Asia, presented and to push for improved political
and economic institutions. The consequence was economic growth. In other
places, such as Spain, where the initial political institutions and balance of
power were different, the outcome was different. The monarchy dominated
society, trade and economic opportunities, and in consequence, political
institutions became weaker and the economy declined. As Marx and Engels put it
in the Communist Manifesto,
"The discovery of America, the rounding of the Cape, opened up fresh
ground for the rising bourgeoisie."
It did, but only in some circumstances. In others it led to a retardation of
the bourgeoisie. In consequence colonialism drove economic development in some
parts of Europe and retarded it in others.
Colonialism did not, however, merely impact the development of those
societies that did the colonising. Most obviously, it also affected the
societies that were colonised. In our research (Acemoglu et al. 2001, 2002) we
showed that this, again, had heterogeneous effects. This is because colonialism
ended up creating very distinct sorts of societies in different places. In
particular, colonialism left very different institutional legacies in different
parts of the world, with profoundly divergent consequences for economic
development.
The reason for this is not that the various European powers transplanted
different sorts of institutions – so that North America succeeded due to an
inheritance of British institutions, while Latin America failed because of its
Spanish institutions.
In fact, the evidence suggests that the intentions and strategies of
distinct colonial powers were very similar (Acemoglu and Robinson 2012). The
outcomes were very different because of variation in initial conditions in the
colonies. For example, in Latin America, where there were dense populations of
indigenous people, a colonial society could be created based on the
exploitation of these people. In North America where no such populations
existed, such a society was infeasible, even though the first British settlers
tried to set it up. In response, early North American society went in a
completely different direction: early colonising ventures, such as the Virginia
Company, needed to attract Europeans and stop them running off into the open
frontier and they needed to incentivise them to work and invest. The
institutions that did this, such as political rights and access to land, were
radically different even from the institutions in the colonising country. When
British colonisers found Latin-American-like circumstances, for example in
South Africa, Kenya or Zimbabwe, they were perfectly capable of and interested
in setting up what we have called 'extractive institutions', based on the
control of and the extraction of rents from indigenous peoples. In Acemoglu and
Robinson (2012) we argue that extractive institutions, which strip the vast
mass of the population of incentives or opportunities, are associated with
poverty. It is also not a coincidence that such African societies are today as
unequal as Latin American countries.
It wasn't just the density of indigenous peoples that mattered for the type
of society that formed. As we showed in Acemoglu et al. (2001), the disease
environment facing potential European settlers was also important. Something
that encouraged the colonisation of North America was the relatively benign
disease environment that facilitated the strategy of creating institutions to
guarantee European migration. Something that encouraged the creation of
extractive institutions in West Africa was the fact that it was the 'white
man's graveyard', discouraging the creation of the type of 'inclusive economic
institutions' which encouraged the settlement and development of North America.
These inclusive institutions, in contrast to extractive institutions, did
create incentives and opportunities for the vast mass of people.
Our focus on the disease environment as a source of variation in colonial
societies was not because we considered this to be the only or even the main
source of variation in the nature of such societies. It was for a particular
scientific reason: we argued that the historical factors that influenced the
disease environment for Europeans and therefore their propensity to migrate to
a particular colony are not themselves a significant source of variation in
economic development today. More technically, this meant that historical
measures of European settler mortality could be used as an instrumental
variable to estimate the causal effect of economic institutions on economic
development (as measured by income per-capita). The main challenge to this
approach is that factors which influenced European mortality historically may
be persistent and can influence income today, perhaps via effects on health or
contemporary life expectancy. There are several reasons why this is not likely
to be true however. First, our measures of European mortality in the colonies
are from 200 or so years ago, before the founding of modern medicine or the
understanding of tropical diseases. Second, they are measures of mortality
faced by Europeans with no immunity to tropical diseases, which is something
very different from the mortality faced by indigenous people today, which is
presumably what is relevant for current economic development in these
countries. Just to check, we also showed that our results are robust to the
controlling econometrically of various modern measures of health, such as
malaria risk and life expectancy.
Thus, just as colonialism had heterogeneous effects on development within
Europe, promoting it in places like Britain, but retarding it in Spain, so it
also had very heterogeneous effects in the colonies. In some places, like North
America, it created societies with far more inclusive institutions than in the
colonising country itself and planted the seeds for the immense current
prosperity of the region. In others, such as Latin America, Africa or South
Asia, it created extractive institutions that led to very poor long-run
development outcomes.
The fact that colonialism had positive effects on development in some
contexts does not mean that it did not have devastating negative effects on
indigenous populations and society. It did.
That colonialism in the early modern and modern periods had heterogeneous
effects is made plausible by many other pieces of evidence. For example, Putnam
(1994) proposed that it was the Norman conquest of the South of Italy that
created the lack of 'social capital' in the region, the dearth of associational
life that led to a society that lacked trust or the ability to cooperate. Yet
the Normans also colonised England and that led to a society which gave birth
to the industrial revolution. Thus Norman colonisation had heterogeneous
effects too.
Colonialism mattered for development because it shaped the institutions of
different societies. But many other things influenced these too, and, at least
in the early modern and modern period, there were quite a few places that
managed to avoid colonialism. These include China, Iran, Japan, Nepal and
Thailand, amongst others, and there is a great deal of variation in development
outcomes within these countries, not to mention the great variation within
Europe itself. This raises the question of how important, quantitatively,
European colonialism was, compared to other factors. Acemoglu et al. (2001)
calculate that, according to their estimates, differences in economic
institutions account for about two-thirds of the differences in income
per-capita in the world. At the same time, Acemoglu et al. (2002) show that, on
their own, historical settler mortality and indigenous population density in
1500 explain around 30% of the variation in economic institutions in the world
today. If historical urbanisation in 1500, which can also explain variation in
the nature of colonial societies, is added, this increases to over 50% of the
variation. If this is right, then a third of income inequality in the world
today can be explained by the varying impact of European colonialism on
different societies. A big deal.
That colonialism shaped the historical institutions of colonies might be
obviously plausible. For example, we know that, in Peru of the 1570s, the
Spanish Viceroy Francisco de Toledo set up a huge system of forced labour to
mine the silver of Potosí. But this system, the Potosí mita, was abolished in
the 1820s, when Peru and Bolivia became independent. To claim that such an
institution, or, more broadly, the institutions created by colonial powers all
over the world, influence development today, is to make a claim about how
colonialism influenced the political economy of these societies in a way which
led these institutions to either directly persist, or to leave a path dependent
legacy. The coerced labour of indigenous peoples lasted directly up until at
least the 1952 Bolivian Revolution, when the system known as pongueaje was
abolished. More generally, Acemoglu and Robinson (2012, Chapters 11 and 12) and
Dell (2010) discuss many mechanisms via which this could have taken place.
Finally, it is worth observing that our empirical findings have important
implications for alterative theories of comparative development. Some argue
that geographical differences are dominant in explaining long-run patterns of
development. In contradistinction, we showed that once the role of institutions
is accounted for, geographical factors are not correlated with development
outcomes. The fact that, for instance, there is a correlation between latitude
and geography, is not indicative of a causal relationship. It is simply driven
by the fact that European colonialism created a pattern of institutions that is
correlated with latitude. Once this is controlled for, geographical variables
play no causal role. Others argue that cultural differences are paramount in
driving development. We found no role at all for cultural differences measured
in several ways. First, the religious composition of different populations.
Second, as we have emphasised, the identity of the colonial power. Third, the
fraction of the population of a country of European descent. It is true, of
course, that the United States and Canada filled up with Europeans, but in our
argument this was an outcome of the fact that they had good institutions. It is
not the numerical dominance of people of European descent today that drives
development.
Not that I want to defend colonialism, but growing inequality both in Europe
and in the ex-colonies makes it hard to argue that 'colonialism' is a driving
force.
I think colonialism could be a driving force without necessarily being
the sole driving force. Yes, inequality is on the rise in the first world as
well, but as of a few years ago the highest Gini bracket in Europe was still
the lowest in Central and South America. So there's a difference in scale.
Capitalism, especially neoliberal financial capitalism, is unstable on its
own and rapidly produces gross inequality independent of the starting point -
just like the game of monopoly. Colonialism, a particular type of theft
capitalism, may have created earlier states of inequality, but today's
inequality would exist independent of this earlier state. The root cause is
compounding growth/profits/ interest as Michael Hudson has explained.
One can expand this study by overlaying other types of colonialism. For
example Spain suffered more than 700 years of Arab colonialism and succeeded in
throwing off the Arab yoke just as they started their own colonial project in
the Americas. How much of the failure of the institutions the Spanish left in
the Americas is the result of faulty institutions the Arabs brought to Spain?
And how does one study areas the were first colonized by Arabs (North
Africa, sub-Saharan Africa, India, etc.) Are the problems in Algeria today more
the result of Arab colonialism or French colonialism?
And how many of the problems today in Russia are a result of Mongol
colonialism - and for that matter the same question could be asked about the
Middle East? That area has suffered so many layers of colonialism (Arab,
Mongol, Ottoman, European) that it would take a sort of archaeologist to figure
out which problems are a result of which colonialism.
There were no Arabs in India. Persians and Mongols, yes. Hindu India was
the coloniser in the East all the way to Indonesia. Also, both China and
Japan have been colonized by Hindu/ Buddhist Institutions whose legacy can
be seen even now.
Euhm, this isn't personal, but imagine your response if someone took that
para of yours and changed Spain to US, Arab Colonialism with Scots/Irish
Colonialism, and cheered on their eradication and marginalization at the
hands of, say, a realpolitik/nationalist politician, who justifies said
actions by talking about how he's "liberating" Appalachia. Problematic, no?
Arabs had been living in Spain for centuries under thug rule before a
bunch of "christian" thugs thought up the idea to "justify" a
handily-marketed "re"conquest of areas that had never really belonged to
them, and which did not contain "relatives", while the Christianity of the
people displaced by the arabs was pretty much equally novel - at best 200yo.
Not really sure it's apt to compare that to the western
colonization/eradication efforts that started with the expansion of Spain to
the south, then west.
It's worth pointing out that in the USA, extractive institutions WERE
created in places where tobacco and cotton can be grown. However, the yields
aren't great once you get north of Maryland (for tobacco) and I think even
further south for cotton. The northeast of the USA didn't really have much that
they could export to Britain, profitably.
It's clear that development is driven by good quality institutions, but the
real question is whether geography determined the nature of colonial era
institutions that took root.
But that's not to dispute the argument that colonial institutions created a
kind of path dependency that left a lasting legacy that still overshadows
present conditions.
I always suspected Social Sciences, especially Economics of being a mumbo
jumbo. This article strengthens my belief in that direction. It was not
"institutions" but guns and gun powder that created the European colonial
empires( though failing in China ). The genocide of native American peoples
coupled with slave African labour accelerated economic development and not
institutions. The same was the case with India.The article is very high on the
unreadability index; mumbo jumbo at least requires a minimum measure of style
that the authors lack in the English language.Savagery of Christianity in face
of more sophisticated and refined ways of life like those of the Hindus in
India is another factor that created inequality and not "institutions" which
Indian Hindu States had in enough supplies as even a cursory glance at the
history of colonialism in those parts will reveal. And now China has really
developed and it is time all European Parliaments must declare their activities
on other shores as Genocidal and apologise and pay compensations to those
countries where they did their Projects!
This did not make clear to me what colonialism is. A elite group from one
society or region moves into another region to exploit people and resources.
Tactics are to weaken defenses (war, destroy food supplies) and get buy in from
selected groups, yet maintain the majority of the gains for themselves.
I can't think of societies that haven't had some type of political system
nor inequality among individuals and groups so is colonialism referring to
inequality between nations (excluding regions) with an specific form of
governing (official elections) and distance? I'm thinking of a checkerboard .
if the elite from one region move into a neighboring region, install themselves
as the ruling class and institute slavery that is not colonialism. If the elite
from one region skip a couple of squares, install themselves as the ruling
class and institute slavery, that is colonialism.
Exploitation is universal, because of greed and fear. If you can exploit,
you most often do. When exploitation isn't about individuals, or companies
but about peoples and nations, that is colonialism. The West is suffering from
internal colonialism now as well, as Marx predicted.
Study the Romans, read about Augustus Cesar, reach and understanding
Plebs and Patricians. The west "is suffering" from the same rule it modeled
itself upon.
If this is a foretaste of the rest of the book, it is thin gruel, suffering
from the usual Anglo-American myopia. You want to talk about colonialism
without talking about the Portuguese and how they differed? Discussion of North
and South America with no mention of Brazil?
I am reminded again that in my advertisements and in many parts of the U S
of A, "bilingual" = speaking U.S. English + New World Spanish.
No wonder we are where we are, Gini-quotient-wise.
"such as the Virginia Company, needed to attract Europeans and stop them
running off into the open frontier"
"As a part of the early history of Virginia, Jefferson once made reference
to "The wild Irish who had gotten possession of the valley between the
Blueridge and Northmountain,"
It is difficult for me to detect any coherent argument in this very poorly
informed piece.
"Colonialism mattered for development because it shaped the institutions
of different societies. But many other things influenced these too, and, at
least in the early modern and modern period, there were quite a few places
that managed to avoid colonialism. These include China, Iran, Japan, Nepal
and Thailand, amongst others."
How does this make any sense at all? Have the authors even heard of the
Opium Wars, or Hong Kong? If so, how are they defining "colonialism?"
The vast slave labor plantations of the antebellum South reflect how the
Virginia Company "incentivized" people "to work and invest through
"institutions" "such as political rights and access to land."??!!??
The authors appear to believe that the Norman conquest of 1066 is a
"colonizing" event similar to that of the Belgian colonization of the Congo,
yet the British rule over Hong Kong isn't "colonialism" at all. Any
undergraduate student who proposed such nonsense– in a Western Civ. class–
would certainly fail the course!
Why do we continue to wade about in this trumped-up confusion as concerns a
clear understanding of the operations of the European colonial outbreak, and
especially Settler Colonialism?
Wherever possible, and by that I mean wherever there was arable land
available, the colonial powers, in particular, Britain, either enticed, or
forced a settler population to supplant the indigenous people, and if
necessary, kill them.
The history is confusing only because our masters wish us to remain ignorant
of its true nature, and its ramifications concerning modern political reality.
The Brits colonized Ireland and imposed 'order' by injecting a settler
population.
They colonized South Africa and imposed 'order' by injecting a settler
population.
They colonized North America and imposed 'order' by injecting a settler
population.
They colonized Palastine imposed 'order' by injecting a settler population,
which continues to this day.
The truth about all this was, and is actively suppressed, and obfuscated by
the very people who pretend to study, analyze, and explain history, both in
academia, and media.
Please excuse me if I point out my uncomfortable suspicion that articles
like this are intended to further cloud our collective ability to understand
the deep history of how and why we are 'managed' for profit.
For instance, does it make our current treatment at the hands of America's
elite more understandable if we consider the fact that maybe we've served our
'purpose' and are no longer needed, or appreciated except as a source of
end-game extraction?
At least based on the above, no mention of the Ottoman Empire either, which
had (and has) enormous influence on the development of much of the Middle East
and the Balkans (and of course the Ottoman Empire is not the same as the Arab
conquests). I seriously question, in fact whether "colonialism" is actually a
useful concept here or whether it's just too vague to tell us anything.
"... I am glad to see that this is what you guys argued for with all of your "free trade" agreements that you pushed for over the last several decades. Sadly, this is exactly what led us to Trump as president. ..."
"... Their models told them precisely that some people would suffer and others gain, but also that with appropriate redistribution everybody could gain. But appropriate redistribution was never forthcoming. Time for a national dividend. ..."
"... Appropriate redistribution will NEVER be forthcoming. It is so easily demonized, and people don't want redistributed income. They want jobs! ..."
Much like how the biggest environmentalist
is the one who already has her house built, the economists safely in their ivory tower and comfortable
with their tenured positions in academia were more than happy to volunteer the American working class
to give up some of their wealth so that people living in extreme property in the developing world
could have slightly better positions.
I am glad to see that this is what you guys argued for with
all of your "free trade" agreements that you pushed for over the last several decades. Sadly, this
is exactly what led us to Trump as president.
Their models told them precisely
that some people would suffer and others gain, but also that with appropriate redistribution
everybody could gain. But appropriate redistribution was never forthcoming. Time for a national
dividend.
I strongly disagree with Cowen's assertion. U.S. Presidential elections tend to closely follow
the economy.
Simply knowing whether or not the U.S. Was in recession in the 3rd quarter of the election
year will give you the popular vote winner 80% of the time, going all the way back to the 1850s
-- and includes the 2016 result.
Econometric models forecast a very close 2016 election result, typically giving the incumbent
party about a 2% victory -- which was exactly the actual result.
If Trump and the GOP deliver a recession, that will mean real wage growth and employment, especially
goods-producing employment, will decline. And the voters will turn on them.
Good point, but in recent years it has been the populist right who has really been the beneficiary
in the U.S. and Europe, with their scapegoating of globalization and immigrants.
"If the national Democratic Party had more cultural appeal to working-class whites, they might
have been able to stop the bleeding enough to hold states like Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan,
Wisconsin or North Carolina."
Yeah you won't cultural appeal but not so much that you abandon your principles. Calling them
deplorable doesn't help.
I feel the Democrats need to better appeal to them more on the economic front. Instead of giving
speeches at Goldman Sachs functions, campaign in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Instead of an infrastructure proposal of $275 billion over 5 years, go big like Bernie or the
Senate Democrats with $1 trillion over 10 years. Trump went big with his rhetoric. We'll see if
he delivers anything.
I think move to the right might continue for some time. Clinton Democrats betrayal of working
class give far right a huge boost, to say nothing about paving way to Caesarism and discarding
the Democratic governance like used shoe box.
From comments:
"what is termed the Right is pretty much what would have been [neoliberal] centre leftism not
that long ago.
In practical terms there is nothing between the governments of Cameron or May vs those of Blair.
"The center left will still need to do something about low wages"
I would love to see the Greens win but, with all due respect, I think this is a complete pipe
dream. Right-wing democrats and the handful of democratic centrists (e.g. Sanders, Warren, Grijalva)
lack any evidence of backbone and have, thus far, proven utterly incapable of functioning as an
effective opposition party.
I expect the extreme right to cement their control of the federal and (most) state legislatures
in 2018. I also expect them to utilize every tool in their disposal to repress the votes of the
lumpenproletariat -- and especially people of color.
As a union member, organizer, and genuine leftist I am very glad that I am a tri-national and
am not tied to the USA by citizenship.
"Right-wing democrats and the handful of democratic centrists (e.g. Sanders, Warren, Grijalva)
lack any evidence of backbone and have, thus far, proven utterly incapable of functioning as an
effective opposition party.
I expect the extreme right to cement their control of the federal and (most) state legislatures
in 2018."
A very, very good point. I am fully with you on that. Moreover I think the country political
climate as whole is now favorable to the further move to the right. A kind of replay of 1920th
on a new level with neoliberalism instead of "robber barons capitalism" under attack from the
right.
"He's what a lot of Americans would be if they had a
billion dollars."
Updated by Sean Illing
Feb 1, 2017, 9:30am EST
"Pull a lever for me and you'll horrify them all."
That's how journalist and author Matt Taibbi describes the
proposition Donald Trump made to the electorate in 2016. For
the past year, Taibbi has covered Trump for Rolling Stone.
His latest book, Insane Clown President: Dispatches From the
2016 Circus, is a collection of long- and shortform articles
drawn from that experience.
To read the pieces in chronological order is to witness a
familiar journey: In the beginning, like so many people,
Taibbi saw Trump's candidacy as a joke. But then he went to
Iowa and saw that something was afoot. Trump had tapped into
a reservoir of resentment.
And then there was the performative aspect. The way he
talked, the way he behaved, the way he treated other
candidates - it was obscene and spellbinding all at once.
Trump treated the campaign like a reality TV show, sucking
all the oxygen out of the room. It was a perfect marriage of
amorality and shamelessness.
"In a perverse way," Taibbi wrote in August 2015, "Trump
has restored a more pure democracy to this process. He's
taken the Beltway thinkfluencers out of the game and turned
the presidency into a pure high-school-style popularity
contest conducted entirely in the media."
The wave of spectacle-driven rage that Trump rode in the
primaries carried him all the way to the White House. The
people who voted for Trump knew they were voting for
dynamite, Taibbi argues, and that was the point: to extend a
giant middle finger to the establishment.
I sat down with Taibbi last week to talk about the seeds
of this resentment. I also asked him why he still felt
blindsided by the election, and why he thinks Trump was able
to circumnavigate all the institutional checks that normally
prevent someone like him from ascending to the presidency.
Our conversation, edited for length and clarity, follows.
Sean Illing
In 2009, you wrote a book called The Great Derangement in
which you talked about various fringe political movements
around the country. A big theme was the loss of trust in
national institutions, like Congress and the media. You even
described a possible future in which politics "stopped being
about ideology and instead turned into a problem of
information."
That reads like prophecy now. What did you see in 2009?
Matt Taibbi
The main thing was that I saw people tuning out the media. A
lot of us have this idea that the truth has a kind of magical
power, that if the truth is out there it will convince the
country to unite behind it. But this isn't so. People can
simply decide to not believe a version of events now. They
can shop for information the same way they'd shop for
everything else, and they pick the reality they find most
pleasing.
Back when I was thinking about the rapture movement or the
9/11 truther movement, what struck me was that there are
bubbles now that you can stay in and you don't have to engage
with reality if you don't want to. So it occurred to me that
in the future, people might decide en masse to completely
tune out. Even the idea of having a debate with people about
a commonly accepted body of facts seemed to be slipping away
at the time.
And that's kind of what happened in this election. It was
one group of people believing one thing and another group of
people seeing something completely different.
Sean Illing
Some of this is justified insofar as people, some more than
others, feel left behind both economically and culturally.
When people feel disinvested in the system, it's a lot easier
to tune out.
Matt Taibbi
Exactly. We've had this slow, suffocating decline in the real
value of people's salaries. Real opportunities are shrinking.
Everybody has to work more. There's more debt. There's a
broad perception that the mainstream media was in league with
this group of elitist forces that were hoarding all of the
winnings from society and slowly squeezing everyone else out.
What I learned talking to people around the country is
that the press was seen as the enemy, as part of the
grinding, broken system. And that's why they didn't trust us
anymore. Fair or not, that was the perception.
Sean Illing
How much does Trump remind you of Nixon?
Matt Taibbi
When Hunter S. Thompson wrote about Nixon, he was responding
to a man he saw as symbolic of his time, a kind of monster of
his age. Nixon's personality represented this darkness that
was at the heart of everything wrong with America at the
time. And Trump is an equivalent figure in that way. But he's
not the same kind of person as Nixon. Nixon had many levels
to his personality; he was a thinker, well-educated, a
schemer. Trump is just a bundle of disorganized urges. He's
what a lot of Americans would be if they had a billion
dollars: They'd build grotesque castles, bang models, and
grow fat.
So in that sense, Trump represents something horrible
about all of us, and that's what reminds me of Nixon.
Sean Illing
I admit, I was slow to recognize what was happening last
year. For months I insisted Trump would fold, one way or the
other. Some of it was cognitive dissonance; some of it was
pure denialism. I just got it wrong.
At what point did you say, "Holy shit, this guy can win
the whole thing"?
Matt Taibbi
I went through a couple different stages with this. When he
first entered the race, I thought it was a joke. And then I
went through this period where I went to Iowa and realized
that the field of Republican candidates he was running
against were comically lightweight. At that point, I believed
he was absolutely going to win the nomination. I think when
he survived his attack on John McCain, it was even clearer.
But later, like everyone else, I fell victim to the
popular myths about the invincibility of the Obama coalition.
I ran into a Democratic operative at the RNC and he laid out
all these crazy things that had to happen in order for Trump
to win a general election, and I totally bought it. I knew
Clinton was weak, but I believed she would win. Obviously
that was a mistake.
I should've gone with what I was seeing, and what I was
seeing was Trump generating an enormous amount of energy on
the campaign trail, and also that Clinton was the perfect
opponent for him. It was all right there, in front of us, but
I didn't trust my instincts.
Sean Illing
I'm still convinced this guy never wanted to be president.
Hell, he hired a bunch of actors to stand in front of him
when made his campaign announcement speech. My sense is that
this was an exercise in brand promotion that, at some point,
exploded into something real.
Matt Taibbi
Ha! You know, Trump's foray into this campaign reminded me of
this boxer, Peter McNeeley, who fought Mike Tyson right after
he got out of jail. So McNeeley was this terrible white boxer
with a mullet who got a chance to fight Tyson at the right
time. The whole thing was like a frat dare. McNeeley got
himself all pumped up and he just ran to the center of ring,
right into Tyson's fist, and he just collapsed onto the mat.
I thought Trump's campaign would be like that: He'd go into
it with a full head of steam, and it would be fantastic for a
month or two.
But then he ran into the total stupidity of America that
embraced every dumb thing about him, and that chemically
interacted with his narcissistic personality and it turned
into this unstoppable force.
Sean Illing
Another part of this story is how craftily Trump played the
media throughout the campaign. The media was the perfect
punching bag, the perfect "cultural villain," as you put it.
He just rope-a-doped us all the way to the White House.
Matt Taibbi
He tuned in to the fact that all of us are slaves to ratings,
even if we pretend that we're not. To be fair, individually a
lot us try to do what we know we ought to do, but the reality
is that we work for companies that have to make money. Trump
understands that, and he understands that he was making
everyone money. He knew we'd keep the lights on. He knew we
needed him as much as he needed us.
Sean Illing
He was also tuned in to the rampant anti-media sentiment out
there. After every offense - insulting veterans, menstrual
jokes, mocking a disabled reporter, threatening to kill the
family members of terrorists, offering to pay the legal fees
of supporters who pummel protesters, the "grab 'em by the
pussy" scandal - he attacked the press, and most of his
supporters loved it. Whoever he offended or whatever he lied
about was an afterthought.
Matt Taibbi
Absolutely. We see ourselves as the defenders of the public
good, but so many of the people I talked to on the campaign
trail see the press as the agents of political correctness,
as self-important do-gooders who take every opportunity to
mock and punish people who don't think and talk and act like
we do. Trump was defying all of this, and peopled loved the
fact that he stood up to us.
Sean Illing
You say in the book that Trump basically went to the American
people and said, "Pull a lever for me and you'll horrify them
all." And 60 million people said, "I'm in."
Matt Taibbi
Again, you have all these people on the progressive side
asking themselves, "How can all these Trump voters not be
thinking about the reality of what a Trump presidency would
look like?" And it just reflects a total misunderstanding of
the thought process on the other side. This is about living
from second to second, and they just wanted that rush that
they were going to get when they saw the looks on our faces
when Trump got elected.
The reality of what comes next is totally secondary.
Sean Illing
An interesting question moving forward is how do we cover
Trump in a way that's illuminating but also not
counterproductive or amenable to the anti-media narrative
he's spinning?
Matt Taibbi
It's a really great question because Trump has this ability
to turn everyone in his orbit into a reality TV character,
and he's turned the media into one. We're starting to behave
radically, more emotionally, in a way we're giving in to the
demands that the public has to ditch our normal approach to
things and to be more alarmist in our reporting.
That's exactly the wrong approach, though I get it. I
realize this is ridiculous coming from a guy who just wrote a
book with the title "Insane Clown President," but I think we
should slowly, methodically focus on the hard facts of
everything he's doing and not get into flame wars and
distractions and soap operas.
It's not our job to take on Trump and beat him; our job is
to do what we do.
Sean Illing
In the book, you write that Trump is "as likely driven by gas
as ideology." He's got Steve Bannon, the intellectual light
of the alt-right, as his chief strategist. His Cabinet is
full of military generals, bankers, and billionaires -
there's really no coherent ideological thread holding it
together.
What prospect worries you more: that Trump is a
ratings-chasing nihilist or that he might actually believe
all the things he said on the trail?
Matt Taibbi
Both of those outcomes are extremely dangerous. If he's just
a tool for an evil racist revolutionary like Bannon, who
actually has a brain in his head and is capable of strategic
thought, that would be really bad. If he's just an amoral
narcissistic lunatic, as he appears to be, that's also bad. I
could easily see him hate-tweeting us into a war.
So neither scenario is terribly heartening. If it's just
him being crazy, well, the president has a lot of power and
that could go tragically wrong. If it's him being a puppet or
a willing conspirator in this alt-right revolution, that's
just as frightening.
It's like that scene in Goodwill Hunting: "Do you want the
belt, the stick, or the wrench?" Shit, I don't want any of
them.
Sean Illing
I talked to one of Trump's biographers recently, and he
echoed something I've heard from a lot of people, which is
that Trump only cares about his popularity and that he'll do
whatever he thinks will boost his ratings. That's almost
comforting, but every indication so far is that Trump is
pushing full steam ahead on the promises he made during the
campaign.
Now, signing executive orders doesn't mean things
magically happen, but it's an indicator that he intends to
advance policies that are popular with his base but not with
the majority of the country.
Matt Taibbi
I think he's spent so much time with these sycophants who
worship him and have responded positively to his loony ideas
about the wall and the Muslim ban that he feels pressure to
live up to the image of Trump as the savior and rescuer even
though it's not winning him a whole lot of popularity among
the majority of the country. He still seems to care intensely
about things like his ratings, otherwise why make all this
noise about mythical voter fraud or crowd sizes?
So I think the biographer is mostly right. I don't have
any idea what that will mean for the next four years,
however.
Sean Illing
Speaking of the next four years, your book ends on a
pessimistic note. You basically declare the dream of unified
country dead. Is it that dark?
Matt Taibbi
Yeah, I think it is.
Sean Illing
Are you encouraged at all by the massive protests or the fact
that Trump is historically unpopular?
Matt Taibbi
Not enough to feel especially hopeful about the future. I
lived in Russia for several years and one of the things that
struck me is how naive I had been growing up in the United
States. If you grew up in America, you have no idea how bad
it can get. The possibilities for awfulness in human
experience are far beyond what we're used to.
I think we're just beginning to see how bad things can
get. We have an illusion of stability thanks to our wealth
and geography and the fact that we're still a young country.
We take so much for granted. As Yeats said, things can fall
apart. The center doesn't hold forever.
I see things starting to fray here and it's unsettling.
Sean Illing
Political order is perilously contingent, and that's a lesson
America hasn't learned in a long time.
Matt Taibbi
That's exactly right. I'm not sure how this will play out,
but it feels like we're at the beginning of something.
Many, if not, most democrats also believe in "jobs" and look
on social welfare with puritan disdain. I think it will take
at least a couple of generations for USAnians to discard
their puritan economic beliefs and acknowledge that capital
should be shared (and/or even collectively owned).
Why are we even talking about something so absurdly rare as death by jihadists when over the past
decade 5 times more people die from lightning strikes. More people die due to guns in two days
than have died from jihadism in a decade. Are we plain and simply insane?
Strife Over
Immigrants: Can California Predict the
Nation's Future?
https://nyti.ms/2jW2PTW
via
@UpshotNYT
NYT - Emily Badger - February 1, 2017
The political ads warned that illegal immigrants were dashing, by the millions, over the Mexican
border, racing to claim taxpayer-funded public services in California.
"They keep coming," the announcer intoned over grainy aerial footage and a thrumming bassline.
When viewed on YouTube today, these ads hardly seem the stuff of multicultural California as we know
it.
In 1994, though, that message helped lift California's governor, the Republican Pete Wilson, to
re-election. That same year, voters adopted a referendum, Proposition 187, denying state services
to undocumented immigrants, including public education and health care.
California is often held up as a harbinger of the demographics - and, Democrats hope, the politics
- of the nation to come. Mr. Wilson's bet against immigration is thought to have hurt Republicans
in the long run in the state. But in the dawn of the Trump era, the state is also a cautionary tale
of what happens during the tumultuous years when that change is occurring rapidly.
Donald J. Trump has taken office in a nation that is not only growing more diverse, but also growing
more diverse everywhere, because of both foreign immigration and shifting internal migration patterns
that are touching the last bastions of nearly all-white America.
After an election in which Mr. Trump appealed to unease about the nation's changing identity -
and a month when he alarmed civil rights leaders and immigration advocates - his presidency poses
a very different question from his predecessor's.
Not: Are we post-racial? But: How will we handle the racial change that is only going to accelerate?
Sociological studies suggest that increasing contact between groups can yield familiarity and
tolerance. But it can also unnerve, especially in communities where that rapid change is most visible
- and when politicians stand to gain by exploiting it. California lashed out at diversity before
embracing it.
"There's a very rich history of xenophobia, of racism, of trying to wipe each other out," said
Connie Rice, a longtime civil rights lawyer in California. "It's not like we were all of a sudden
born the Golden State." ...
Related?
More Californians dreaming of a country without
Trump: poll
http://reut.rs/2j6s8iG
Reuters - Sharon Bernstein - January 24
The election of Republican businessman Donald Trump as president of the United States has some
Californians dreaming - of their own country.
One in every three California residents supports the most populous U.S. state's peaceful withdrawal
from the union, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll, many of them Democrats strongly opposed
to Trump's ascension to the country's highest office.
The 32 percent support rate is sharply higher than the last time the poll asked Californians about
secession, in 2014, when one-in-five or 20 percent favored it around the time Scotland held its independence
referendum and voted to remain in the United Kingdom.
California also far surpasses the national average favoring secession, which stood at 22 percent,
down from 24 percent in 2014.
The poll surveyed 500 Californians among more than 14,000 adults nationwide from Dec. 6 to Jan.
19 and has a credibility interval, a measure of accuracy, of one percentage point nationally and
five percentage points in California.
The idea of secession is largely a settled matter in the United States, though the impulse to
break away carries on in some corners of the country, most notably in Texas.
While interest has remained about the same nationwide, it has found more favor in California and
the concept has even earned a catchy name - "Calexit."
"I don't think it's likely to happen, but if things get really bad it could be an option," said
Stephen Miller, 70, a retired transportation planner who lives in Sacramento and told pollsters he
"tended to support" secession. ...
'Calexit' would be a disaster for progressive values
http://fw.to/ks9LHNS
LA Times - January 27
Imagine if President Trump announced that he wanted to oust California from the United States.
If it weren't for us, after all, Trump would have won the popular vote he so lusts after by 1.4 million.
Blue America would lose its biggest source of electoral votes in all future elections. The Senate
would have two fewer Democrats. The House of Representatives would lose 38 Democrats and just 14
Republicans. The U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals, among the most liberal in the nation, would be
changed irrevocably. And the U.S. as a whole would suddenly be a lot less ethnically diverse than
it is today.
For those reasons, Trump, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan,
Republicans with White House ambitions, opponents of legalizing marijuana, advocates of criminalizing
abortion and various white nationalist groups might all conclude –– for different reasons –– that
they would benefit politically from a separation, even as liberals and progressives across America
would correctly see it as a catastrophe.
So it makes sense that the leader of the Yes California Independence Campaign, Marcus Ruiz Evans,
was - contrary to popular assumptions - a registered Republican when he formed the separatist group
two years ago, according to the San Jose Mercury News. He briefly hosted conservative talk radio
shows in Fresno, and would not tell the newspaper if he voted for Trump. ...
Point well made! Regarding the argument that today's
immigrants aren't as willing as past immigrants to
assimilate, I recently read that 80% of 19th Century German
immigrants returned to Germany, and 30% of Italian immigrants
did the same.
Our national mythology glosses over the history of how
unwelcoming our country has mostly been to new immigrants.
The idea that America has always been a land that welcomed
immigrants and provided them immediate opportunity is very
comfortable, but it contradicts a much harsher history. It's
a real shame that so many of our fellow countrymen are
willfully ignorant of their own ancestors' struggles, and are
willing to inflict the same harshness on our newest arrivals.
On the other hand, the news coverage of this past
weekend's protests over the Trump immigration Executive Order
included a picture of a man carrying a sign saying,
"Mexican-Americans Welcome Muslim Refugees!" I can't thing of
anything that expresses the ideals of real Americanism better
than that!
To identify and highlight what is going right and what is going
wrong in the reviewing process, we wrote to a sample of former editors
of the American Economic Review, the Journal of Political Economy, the
Quarterly Journal of Economics, Econometrica, the Review of Economic
Studies, and the Journal of Financial Economics, and asked them for
their thoughts about what might improve the process. We found a rough
consensus that referees for top journals in economics tend to make
similar, correctable mistakes.
The italicized quotations throughout this paper are drawn from our
correspondence with these editors and our own experience.
Their insights are consistent with our own experiences as editors
at the Journal of Finance and the Review of Financial Studies. Our
objective is to highlight these mistakes and provide a roadmap for how
to avoid them.
Billionaire Koch Brothers Launch Effort to Kill Republican
Border Tax Plan
Reuters
6:07 AM Eastern
Billionaire industrialist Charles Koch is launching a
campaign to sink a border tax under consideration by
Republican leaders in Congress, a move that could complicate
the lawmakers' efforts to find a way to pay for President
Donald Trump's proposed wall on the U.S. border with Mexico.
Americans for Prosperity, a conservative political
advocacy group founded by Charles Koch and his brother David,
plans to use its network of wealthy political donors and
activists to kill the proposal, which aims to raise $1.2
trillion over 10 years on goods coming into the United
States, according to officials from the group, which gathered
this weekend for a conference.
Republican House of Representatives Speaker Paul Ryan is
pushing the tax as part of a broader overhaul of the U.S. tax
code.
The White House has given mixed signals on whether Trump
supports the approach, but proponents say revenue collected
from the border tax could finance Trump's drive to build a
wall along the southwestern U.S. border. Proponents also say
it would discourage U.S. manufacturers from moving abroad.
On Thursday, AFP sent a letter expressing its opposition
to the border tax to a House panel in charge of writing tax
legislation.
AFP Chief Executive Officer Luke Hilgemann, in an
interview, called the measure "a massive tax increase" on
U.S. consumers, who would pay more for foreign goods. He
urged Ryan to "go back to the drawing board."
AFP and its offshoot organizations have become a powerful
force in U.S. politics, bolstering candidates and issues on
federal and state levels.
Besides defying Republican leaders on the border tax, the
Koch-led organization on Sunday challenged Trump on a policy
he implemented on Friday to stop the movement of people from
countries with large Muslim populations from traveling to the
United States.
"The travel ban is the wrong approach and will likely be
counterproductive," said an official of the Koch network.
Koch refused to endorse Trump during his presidential
campaign, differing with the candidate over his positions on
immigration and trade policy, and his practice of singling
out companies for possible retribution if they move jobs
abroad.
Nevertheless, Hilgemann said AFP had a "developing
relationship" with the Trump White House, which he said had
reached out to his organization to discuss some policy
matters.
At the same time, former AFP officials have landed
high-level jobs in the Trump administration, giving the group
a conduit for airing its policy wishes.
Looking toward the 2018 congressional and gubernatorial
elections, AFP officials said they planned to boost the
network's spending on policy and political activities to
between $300 million and $400 million, up from an estimated
$250 million for the 2016 campaigns. Hilgemann also said AFP
was laying plans to mobilize activists to help win Senate
confirmation of Trump's pick for the Supreme Court nominee.
The White House said Trump was planning this week to announce
his pick to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia.
1. Impose a retail sales tax on consumer goods and
services, both domestic and imported.
2. Use some of the proceeds from the tax to repeal the
corporate income tax.
3. Use the rest of the proceeds from the tax to significantly
cut the payroll tax.
Before moving on, ask yourself: Do you like this plan?
As I understand it, this plan is, in effect, what the
Republicans in Congress are proposing.
Note the words "in effect." There are a few differences,
which are more important administratively than in their
economic effect. One is that the consumption tax is not
collected at the retail level but rather along the chain of
production (much like a value-added tax). Once this is done,
you need border adjustments to ensure the tax is really like
a retail sales tax: imports must be taxed, and exports have
to get a rebate. In addition, the payroll tax is not cut but
rather firms get a deduction for labor payments, but that
deduction is much the same as a payroll tax cut.
Personally, I like the three-point plan listed above, and
I therefore like the reform proposal being discussed in
Congress. A lot of confusion about things like border
adjustments might disappear if commentators realized that
what is being discussed is largely equivalent to this
three-point plan.
"... General equilibrium thinking is the enemy of understanding - it requires as the interview shows (and he seems unaware of) a cascade of absurd assumptions. He also seems unaware that a series of unreal assumptions can't cancel out - their effects multiply. ..."
"... One of my finds in economic efficiency is to not read articles by George Farmer. Unlike Greg Mankiw, whom I never read, it is not a hard fast prohibitive rule. I sometimes allow myself to get sucked into reading George Farmer by an enticing title but such actions always come with a pang of guilt. ..."
He shouldn't humor such complete nonsense with so much respect.
General equilibrium thinking is the enemy of understanding - it requires as the interview
shows (and he seems unaware of) a cascade of absurd assumptions. He also seems unaware that a
series of unreal assumptions can't cancel out - their effects multiply.
One of my finds in economic efficiency is to not read articles by George Farmer. Unlike Greg
Mankiw, whom I never read, it is not a hard fast prohibitive rule. I sometimes allow myself to
get sucked into reading George Farmer by an enticing title but such actions always come with a
pang of guilt.
One can argue that reading Mankiw or Farmer is useful just to see what others are saying, what
other people read, and preventing oneself from isolation in the bubble chamber, but I don't buy
that argument. I get enough open mindedness just from Dani Rodrik, Dean Baker, Jared Bernstein,
and Menzie Chinn. I used to read Krugman, but that is mostly in the past now with exceptions a
little less rare than Farmer. I also skip reading most of the comments once the day gets going.
I am planting my last 25 daffodil bulbs today. It's a bit late. I already have over a dozen
coming up from earlier planting. I get up every morning to fix my wife coffee and the just wait
around doing this until the sun rises. Practicing good economics is worth more to me now that
reading bad economics.
Ron, what about these consecutive sentences from Duy- "That said, the central bank tends to react
fairly nimbly to changing economic conditions. It has repeatedly delayed action in response to
deteriorating economic or financial conditions."
Which one is it? Act nimble, or fail to act? I know what Duy means but I find the sentences
contradictory in a humorous way.
What Peter K said, at least in the terms that Duy would consider realistic. One can also posit
that the Fed failed to do enough or react soon enough in 2006-2007 or a host of other criticisms,
but all those criticisms would be out of bounds for central bank behavioral expectations in general
and Fed-watcher Tim Duy in specific. Market monetarists are less generous in that respect.
Economists are not noted for their sense of humor and I have a theory that exposure to economists
impairs the sense of humor in normal people. I am afraid mine has been badly damaged at this point.
Anyone here a lawyer? Maybe we can do a class action suit?
Jerry, you and Ron just made my day! My wife and are in lake Placid celebrating out 47th wedding
anniversary, and during our pre-dinner cocktail hour were depressing one another with excerpts
from today's news, and then I came across your Ron's comments. We nearly fell of our chairs laughing!
Thanks guys, we really needed this!
Darn it, you wont be able to join as a plaintiff if you keep that up Chris. Falling out of your
chair laughing does not demonstrate impaired humor- you will ruin my case! Perhaps you can maintain
that you were being very sarcastic? Sarcasm is the last bit of humor to be affected by economism
in my theory...
He neglected to bring illumination to his mention of cash replacing the maturing bond, and where
this cash comes from and what happens with the cash in light if the remittance requirements (where
excess cash is swept into the Treasury's accounts).
They cannot destroy the cash. The redeeming cash will come, in the case of a Treasury bond,
from Treasury who must borrow this amount to pay the Fed. If they are permitted to hokd the cash
on their books, and not remit, we still have borrowing by the public (and this sweeps excess off
of the books of buyers of this new debt) fir it to be placed somewhere if not remitted.
As I have said for quite some time it makes basic common sense to have a mature bond redeemed
via an accounting offset with Treasury as this avoids the need to borrow the money just to then
have it remitted back to Treasury. And why would the Fed and Treasury not do this??? I would like
someone to explain.
For example, why is the Fed doing this now when it could have been redeeming by offset during
the Obama administration (lowering the amount of public borrowing but financing the same nominal
spending).
This piece by Duy misses the absolutely most critical part of the redemption story.
Not what I meant. I have limited time and limited interest. Economics is secondary to politics
as it stands. I don't have sufficient means to become more politically involved yet though. So,
this is something rather than just nothing, but I cut my losses short. You are younger and apparently
more involved in this aspect of thought about the political economy. I am older and more intent
on positive action in my remaining time. There is not much new for me to think about that will
matter at all to me.
Well the other day Farmer said he rejects the Keynesian concept of Aggregate Demand and the consumption
function based on income. And provides no evidence except a recommendation to go and buy his book
to find out. That about does it for me.
No, no, no, no, I don't do it no more. Sometimes in the mornings waiting for the sun to rise then
I actually miss my work in SAS language programming. I was always a bigger fan of PROC FASTCLUS
than PROC REG, but definitely PROC FASTCLUS with PROC GPLOT presentation color coding the cluster
group number assignments in an overlay scatter plot. That is because I could estimate the expected
degree of change in activity from the expected change in natural business units or hardware or
software making historical data of use only for establishing a baseline, hopefully a clean baseline,
rather than for estimating the degree of change itself. I used PROC REG to generate 95% confidence
intervals around the linear regression means of predicted data points.
In my cases the heteroskedasticity was merely considered in the application of outliers from the
central cluster(s). Outliers that constituted some type of risk had to be considered discretely,
one by one, but only those that with predicted change would overshoot capacity limits. Undershooting
was just an isolated outage or collapse in demand and certainly not a capacity risk.
Outlier detection is a whole other kettle of fish. Once upon a time I spent most of my time finding
outliers in multivariate data and trying to figure out more effective methods for finding them.
(Turns out the world isn't multivariate-normal distributed. Who knew?)
For system performance data, which was my domain, an outlier could be an effect on the response
variable at the extreme range of the independent variable, or just an unordinary event. The heteroskedasticity
type outliers were things like increased CPU overhead at high utilizations, a feature of the MVS
IBM mainframe operating system, or elongated service times for Fiber channels and Ethernet or
elongated response times for a device having excessive utilization and queueing delays. Outliers
could also be bugs or system recovery events as well as work scheduled outside its normal window
of operation including systems programmers screwing around in production logical partitions. The
heteroskedasticity type outliers were actually my job to prevent and I did a good job of that.
My occasional undoing was almost always because of application changes that exceeded the developers
expected resource requirements. A couple of times my system programmer coworker that controlled
MVS performance misinterpreted a software constraint until it manifested itself in extreme ways
for long enough until I was consulted for analysis.
So what I am getting at is that all exceptions to normal expectations can be considered as
outliers, but then those that demonstrate only a difference in the reaction function of the response
variable accorded by the range of the independent variable can also be considered heteroskedasticity.
In any case, I am about at the end of my analysis of outliers on my daffodil bulb planting
now. I sure hope that I don't encounter any heteroskedasticity with the chain saw later this week.
The authors are using a study of heteroskedasticity to inform their forecasting ability. In such
a case outliers would be very different from heteroskedasticity in the response variable over
certain ranges of the independent variable. In other applications, such as large computer system
performance, heteroskedasticity exists as something to be avoided because elongation of response
variables follow a hyperbolic curve and we don't want to be kneed by the curve. Classic outliers
are to ignored for forecasting even if not solved by protective measures but heteroskedasticity
occurs as a response to demand in excess to expected and provisioned. Either resources per business
unit of work must be reduced or more resources must be provisioned. In the former case then the
historical baseline must be readjusted and in the later capacity limits must be increased.
"... While this act was sweeping and lacked finesse, operationally clumsy to say the least, the reaction to it was just about as dramatic, including tears. Well, that's politics in the 21st century. And I am sure we will see much more of this sort of thing over the next few years. ..."
While this act was sweeping and lacked finesse, operationally clumsy to say the least, the
reaction to it was just about as dramatic, including tears. Well, that's politics in the 21st
century. And I am sure we will see much more of this sort of thing over the next few years.
We are going to learn more about ourselves than we may have expected. There is nothing new in this;
it is the particular experience of about every other generation and their own 'rendezvous with
destiny.' How can we be content when the choices are between the 'lesser of two evils.' They are
both evil, and many including me are not happy about it- but it is what it is.
mulp said...
January 31, 2017 at 10:20 AM
Where are all the "uncertainty" Chicken Littles that were
running around during the Obama administration screaming
about all the job killing regulations mandating paying
lots more workers causing uncertainty and no job creation?
Now we have Trump uncertainty of promising job killing
deregulation in some places that will be clogged up in
court or uncertain times, plus the uncertainty of random
irrational new job killing regulations of obstacles to
international business.
Trump campaigned on unpredictable chaos to create
uncertainty.
Is it ironic that Trump is being more Obama, and
Carter, than Obama or Carter, and his supporters praise
that?
I note with amusement that Trump defenders cite their
two worst presidents ever as providing the template and
justification for Trump's executive actions. Carter and
Obama were the worst at not keeping America safe, so Trump
is doing immigration bans based on the failed policies of
Carter and Obama, polices that failed to keep America
safe. And Trump defenders point to the Bernardino shooter
coming from Saudi Arabia and Pakistan as the justification
for banning immigrants from seven nations that are NOT
Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. After all, Obama did not
include Saudi Arabia and Pakistan in his failed policy, so
Trump is not including them in his correction because
failed Obama excluded them.
Progressives are just so dumb.
How can they let Republicans justify policies of Obama
based on Trump or Republicans doing them?
They should be emphasizing how much Trump and
Republicans are now advocating and doing the "failed"
policies of Obama.
Peter K. said in reply to mulp...
They should treat Trump like a regular Republican whose
trickle-down economic ideas doesn't work and has never
worked. Trump promised his voters something different.
Clinton did win the popular vote.
Reply
Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 10:33 AM
mulp said in reply to Peter K....
But she lost the Rust Belt which Obama tried to address by
failed stimulus spending on infrastructure which Clinton
doubled down on.
Trump alone can fix things because
doubling down on Clinton's doubling down on Obama's failed
infrastructure spending will work because he is a
Republican, not a radical leftist socialist Democrat doing
it.
Why, because Trump will spending a trillion dollars on
infrastructure but it won't cost a penny because he is
using tax cuts and the free market, and the free in free
market means free trillion dollar infrastructure.
Progressives are not liberals because they adopted
voodoo free lunch economics after the 80s. Obama was a
liberal who understands TANSTAAFL and called for paying
for things. Trump is the anti-Obama in that where Obama
policy and action cost, Trump can do exactly the same for
free, at no cost to anyone. Bernie was more like Trump in
promising trillions in spending at no cost, for free.
"They should treat Trump like a regular Republican
whose trickle-down economic ideas doesn't work and has
never worked." Which Republicans in the "they" believe
free lunch economics don't work? Which conservatives in
the "they" believe voodoo economics don't work?
"They" criticize/defend policies based on the identity
of the policy makers, not based on logic, fact, reason.
Republicans/conservatives justifying policies based on
Obama doing them or advocating them is just so absurd, and
so easy to eviscerate. "Are you saying Obama's policies
and selections of nations as sources of terrorist threats
were the best at keeping America safe?" "If Obama failed
to keep America safe because he picked the wrong nations,
why are you using Obama's wrong list of nations?"
Reply
Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 11:15 AM
anne said...
Important and finely written analysis. Judging from the
politically adamant president and close advisers, the
openings for Fed executives from the beginning, there is a
significant danger of the independence of the Federal
Reserve being compromised.
Reply
Tuesday, January 31, 2017 at 10:43 AM
"... In the declining years of the British empire, some of its politicians flattered themselves that they could be "Greeks to their Romans" - providing wise and experienced counsel to the new American imperium. ..."
"... But the Emperor Nero has now taken power in Washington - and the British are having to smile and clap as he sets fires and reaches for his fiddle. ..."
"... imo, the risk of the USA becoming an oppressive authoritarian state (as opposed to an oligarchy with a veneer of democracy) is being willfully ignored by the the serfs, the bourgeoisie (e.g. EV commentators), and our oligarch lords and masters. ..."
"... spectacle of obvious lies being peddled by the White House is a tragedy for US democracy. ..."
"... While Trump immigration act was sweeping and lacked finesse that just is not important. This was what people who elected him expected from him. Be prepared for more. Trump administration can allow to be operationally clumsy the first 100 days, to say the least. Breaking things is a part of politics as Bismarck once noted: "The great questions of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and majority decisions but by iron and blood." ..."
"... I am still waiting for neocons purge in the State Department and departure of Victoria Nuland. And I hope we will see much more of this sort of thing over the next few years. ..."
"... So those neoliberals who shed crocodile tears about Big, Bad Trump now should better be prepared :-) About every other generation has its own 'rendezvous with destiny.' Remember Great Depression, WWII, Vietnam War... ..."
"... "We are going to learn more about ourselves than we may have expected. There is nothing new in this; it is the particular experience of about every other generation and their own 'rendezvous with destiny.' How can we be content when the choices are between the 'lesser of two evils.' They are both evil, and many including me are not happy about it- but it is what it is." ..."
Britain cannot look to the US for support after its
divorce from the EU
Gideon Rachman
For the most ardent supporters of Brexit, the election of
Donald Trump was a mixture of vindication and salvation. The
president of the US, no less, thinks it is a great idea for
Britain to leave the EU. Even better, he seems to offer an
exciting escape route. The UK can leap off the rotting raft
of the EU and on to the gleaming battleship HMS Anglosphere.
It is an alluring vision. Unfortunately, it is precisely
wrong. The election of Mr Trump has transformed Brexit from a
risky decision into a straightforward disaster. For the past
40 years, Britain has had two central pillars to its foreign
policy: membership of the EU and a "special relationship"
with the US.
The decision to exit the EU leaves Britain much more
dependent on the US, just at a time when America has elected
an unstable president opposed to most of the central
propositions on which UK foreign policy is based.
During the brief trip to Washington by Theresa May, the UK
prime minister, this unpleasant truth was partly obscured by
trivia and trade. Mr Trump's decision to return the bust of
Winston Churchill to the Oval Office was greeted with slavish
delight by Brexiters. More substantively, the Trump
administration made it clear that it is minded to do a trade
deal with the UK just as soon as Britain's EU divorce comes
through.
... ... ...
Britain could defend free-trade far more effectively with
the EU's bulk behind it - and could also start to explore the
possibilities for more EU defence co-operation. As it is,
Britain has been thrown into the arms of an American
president that the UK's foreign secretary has called a
madman.
In the declining years of the British empire, some of
its politicians flattered themselves that they could be
"Greeks to their Romans" - providing wise and experienced
counsel to the new American imperium.
But the Emperor Nero has now taken power in Washington
- and the British are having to smile and clap as he sets
fires and reaches for his fiddle.
imo, the risk of the USA becoming an oppressive
authoritarian state (as opposed to an oligarchy with a veneer
of democracy) is being willfully ignored by the the serfs,
the bourgeoisie (e.g. EV commentators), and our oligarch
lords and masters.
You sound like Bernie
Sanders. As Bernie said if the Republicans become
increasingly successful in suppressing and limiting the vote,
we could be in trouble. And/or if they continue to corrupt
and strip away campaign finance rules like with Citizens
United. But the demographics are against them.
Falsehood cannot be the basis for US foreign policy
JANUARY 23, 2017 by: Gideon Rachman
The man from the BBC was laughing as he reported the White
House's false claims about the size of the crowd at Donald
Trump's inauguration. He should have been crying. What we are
witnessing is the destruction of the credibility of the
American government.
This
spectacle of obvious lies being peddled by the
White House is a tragedy for US democracy.
But the rest
of the world - and, in particular, America's allies - should
also be frightened. A Trump administration that is addicted
to the "big lie" has very dangerous implications for global
security.
Serious issue: true, his credibility is utterly gone in the
reality-based community, but seriously, what about the
general populace at large?
Remember the Reagan and Bush Jr.
Administrations. The presidents themselves were as oblivious
to reality as Trump appears to be, yet their credibility
wasn't totally demolished to a big portion of the populace.
Why should Trump fail where others have succeeded?
There's also mainstream media credibility, VSP
credibility, and (yes) Clinton credibility.
After all, there's the "credibility" of the Ruskie hacking
of our election.
Paul Krugman's credibility took a hit for me sometime
around a year ago, and as long as he keeps writing things
like the "Trump-Putin" regime, it's staying down.
Krugman's credibility took a bid hit from me when he started
attacking Bernie Sanders and his supporters during the
primary (which reminded me of the way he treated Obama in
2008).
Just go through his columns and blog posts on the
subject and it's amazing how brazenly awful they are.
Just me noticing, for myself, what bond investors
collectively are thinking about inflation over the coming 5
years, and thinking that inflation will be a little above 2%
or subdued.
There are two other sides to the credibility/trust issue.
Domestically there is the question of business confidence in
a cultural landscape which has shattered. Hatred and bigotry
is up; there is increasing likelihood of unrest and violence.
Business my be loathe to expand in such an unsettled,
uncertain landscape. And it may be this way for a while.
Internationally there is the question of whether foreign
consumers will find U.S. products to be attractive, and
untainted by ugly environmental and labor concerns -- and
inexpensive on world markets, if there is protectionism and
retaliation.
Trump is making the cardinal mistake of
believing that the U.S. is the indispensable nation, that
people will be forced to deal with him, that he can throw his
weight around.
While Trump immigration act was sweeping and lacked finesse
that just is not important. This was what people who elected
him expected from him. Be prepared for more.
Trump administration can allow to be operationally clumsy
the first 100 days, to say the least. Breaking things is a
part of politics as Bismarck once noted: "The great questions
of the day will not be settled by means of speeches and
majority decisions but by iron and blood."
I am still waiting for neocons purge in the State
Department and departure of Victoria Nuland. And I hope we
will see much more of this sort of thing over the next few
years.
So those neoliberals who shed crocodile tears about Big,
Bad Trump now should better be prepared :-) About every other generation has its own 'rendezvous with
destiny.' Remember Great Depression, WWII, Vietnam War...
== quote ==
"We are going to learn more about ourselves than we may
have expected. There is nothing new in this; it is the
particular experience of about every other generation and
their own 'rendezvous with destiny.' How can we be content
when the choices are between the 'lesser of two evils.' They
are both evil, and many including me are not happy about it-
but it is what it is."
The State Department has 7,600 Foreign Service officers and
11,000 civil servants.
libezkova :
"Administration officials have drafted a new executive order
aimed at overhauling, among other things, the H-1B work-visa
program that technology companies have long relied on to
bring top foreign engineering talent to their U.S.-based
locations" [USA Today]. "The order is aimed at ensuring that
"officials administer our laws in a manner that prioritizes
the interests of American workers and - to the maximum degree
possible - the jobs, wages and well-being of those workers,"
according to a copy of the document provided to USA TODAY."
"A market state, in contrast to the nation-state's focus on broad
economic prosperity and cultural integration, focuses on providing
opportunity to the individual. Finally, and most importantly to me, Trump
isn't dismantling neoliberalism to return to the old nation-state. He's
building, with the help of social networking, a new model of governance for
the US.
Exactly. And the rules have been set by U.S. multinational
corporate negotiators. Just look at TPP.
There is also
dollar policy which is again set by corporate interests.
Paul Samuelson also praised Australia's Tariffs & US became
ultra rich under Lincoln's protectionism :
, -1
In case anyone cared, Samuelson also argued cogently for
Australia's high tariff regime in a famous 1981 article.
In
case economists want to bother learning history (why would
they?) - you can also consider the funny example of Abraham
Lincoln who "took away property rights" and raised tariffs
sky high.
Did the US become a poor third world country because it
took away plantation owners' property rights and jacked up
tariffs? Hmm. Reason to pause and reflect economists?
It may be simplistic, or even wrongheaded, but the
working-class man has become a political obsession. President
Trump won this voting bloc with promises of resurrecting the
"good jobs" of America's industrial heyday, ostensibly by
toughening trade rules and jawboning individual companies.
Democrats agree on the need to appeal to working-class men,
but the party's strategy for doing so hasn't changed much
since Nov. 8: Mostly we hear about addressing income
inequality by raising the minimum wage, improving family
leave, and making college more affordable.
But it's not clear that those issues resonate with the
archetypal Rust Belt factory worker displaced by globalism,
technology, or both. For starters, there's no grand-gesture
proposal - no modern heir to the job-creating Works Progress
Administration, let's say - to capture the imagination. The
minimum wage doesn't mean much to this group, and family
leave is more of a "new working class" issue, says Lance
Compa, who teaches US labor law and international labor
rights at Cornell University. After all, we're talking about
a theoretical voter who once earned up to $30 an hour and
could support a family without advanced skills or education
beyond high school - and basically wants that life back.
And maybe there's another factor lurking in the
background: This guy - you pictured a guy, right? - frames
his concerns more bluntly. "Manly dignity is a big deal for
most men," argued Joan C. Williams, founding director of the
Center for WorkLife Law at the University of California,
Hastings College of the Law, in a November essay for Harvard
Business Review. "So is breadwinner status: Many still
measure masculinity by the size of a paycheck. White
working-class men's wages hit the skids in the 1970s and took
another body blow during the Great Recession. . . . For many
blue-collar men, all they're asking for is basic human
dignity (male varietal)."
Let's acknowledge the obvious: The collision between
21st-century economic realities and the male ego makes an odd
topic for think tank symposiums or congressional hearings. To
consider "manly dignity" in the context of economic policy is
no excuse to bring back a "when men were men" vision of
Manhood 1.0 - much less to embrace the alt-right tweeters
raining hatred upon women.
But just because an issue is awkward for scholars and
politicians to address doesn't mean it isn't shaping our
economy and our politics. "Look," Williams wrote, "I wish
manliness worked differently."
Ultimately, men who are truly stuck in the past are going
to find out that sloganeering and braggadocio won't revive
it. Economist Betsey Stevenson has a point when she argues
that "Manly Men Need to Do More Girly Jobs," as the title of
her recent Bloomberg View column put it.
Still, as a straightforward matter of both policy and
rhetoric, courting any group involves understanding, not
belittling, its core concerns and addressing them in ways
that make sense specifically to members of that group.
Boosting an industrial policy that speaks to this class of
men on its own terms "has just not been on the radar of the
Democratic Party or progressives in general," Williams said
in an interview.
After all, the wave of post-election attention
notwithstanding, blue-collar men have been or felt under
assault for decades. Writing in The Baffler, author Susan
Faludi recently revisited some of her reporting for her 1999
book, "Stiffed: The Betrayal of the American Man." Her
subjects, bitter about lost jobs, declining status, shifting
gender values, and untrustworthy elite power structures, seem
remarkably familiar.
It's not quite right to suggest that no one before Trump
paid attention to these men. One popular and
pragmatic-sounding solution is retraining: taking workers
from sectors that economic change has destroyed and equipping
them with the skills to participate in those it is creating.
The problem is that men often don't seem to want those newer
jobs. "These are working-class people," Ohio congressman Tim
Ryan told NPR not long after the election, when he was
challenging Nancy Pelosi for the Democratic House leadership
role. "They don't want to get retrained, you know, to run a
computer. They want to run a backhoe. They want to build
things."
Moreover, newer job categories often involve work that has
been dominated by women. Janette Dill, an assistant professor
of sociology at the University of Akron, has researched
lower-level jobs in the health care industry - a fast-growing
category, according to government statistics - such as
medical and nursing assistants. Very few men pursue such
work. "There's some stigma around doing these kind of
feminized job tasks," Dill says, such as helping a patient
get out of bed or use the bathroom. While it's often
physically demanding, it's "seen as women's work," she adds.
At the same time, Dill has seen some evidence of an uptick
in younger male workers embracing health care positions with
"more of a technical dimension." A gig as a surgical
technician, respiratory therapist, or occupational therapist
can pay $40,000. The proliferation of jobs like these may not
sound as exciting as lightning-bolt gestures toward new car
plants. But these new health care jobs generally require a
two-year degree, not a four-year baccalaureate, and they
"seem more masculine," as Dill carefully puts it.
Meanwhile, manufacturing itself isn't a lost cause, even
if its golden age is unlikely to return, argues Timothy
Bartik, a senior economist at the Upjohn Institute for
Employment Research in Kalamazoo, Mich. Bartik advocates
several ideas that could appeal to the working-man crowd: a
more demand-driven approach to retraining; manufacturing
extension services designed to help existing smaller
manufacturers grow; and economic "empowerment zones" - a Bill
Clinton-era policy that provided block grants to regions that
devised plans to deploy them according to strategic local
needs. These involve federal help but, importantly, play out
at regional levels.
This could be more effective than doling out
company-specific tax breaks or deploying the blunt instrument
of tariffs on the one hand and a more macro-oriented,
top-down approach on the other. Empowerment zones are an
unlikely successor to the Works Progress Administration - the
Depression-era federal agency that put unemployed men to work
on public building projects - but could be positioned as a
WPA-like expression of tangible government action.
Bartik notes the importance of "rhetorical emphasis" -
selling these ideas as specifically beneficial to communities
built on old-school working-class economics. Hillary Clinton
did propose policies (including some that overlap with these
ideas) to help US manufacturing, but for whatever reason, he
says, "that didn't seem to get much attention."
What's missing is a more sweeping vision that gives
alienated men - and others - a sense that the economy has a
use for the kind of work they want to do.
Williams, of UC Hastings, says this is where progressives
have been misguided and failed to think big and advocate a
comprehensive industrial and educational policy. She points
to the Markle Foundation's Rework America initiative, which
calls for better matching of skills and training with real
job demand. Germany's approach, involving apprenticeship
programs and educational structures that also produce
middle-skill workers that industry actually needs, offers an
example. The point is to think beyond a one-size-fits-all
advocacy of the four-year college degree - a "delusory"
solution, as Williams puts it, that leaves some workers cold.
"The kind of work that college grads do doesn't appeal to
them," she says. "That's not their skill set."
Clearly this shift would take time, but Compa, the Cornell
labor scholar, adds a couple of practical suggestions that
could speak directly and immediately to displaced
manufacturing workers. One is an effort to reinvigorate
workers' compensation laws, which have withered in many
states. Another is to improve COBRA policies, which allow
laid-off workers to hang onto health benefits, by extending
their duration and forcing companies to pay for them. "I
don't want to stereotype," he says, "but men want to feel
that they're providing for their family, and one way to
provide for your family is to make sure they have health
insurance." (Bartik further suggests considering ways of
bridging later-career manufacturing layoff victims to
retirement if retraining isn't a realistic possibility.)
Finally, Compa thinks we should embrace another facet of
America's industrial peak: unions. Building bonds among
working-class people as they take their own interests into
their own hands, unions can still help provide the sense of
dignity that some feel is lost. "The idea that we're going to
stand together against this powerful force on the other
side," he says, "I think that gives a sense of meaning and
purpose."
That basic idea speaks to lost manliness, but also
transcends it. Compa mentions that he was surprised to learn
how little the sorts of low-level health care workers that
Dill studies earn - maybe $12 an hour. "I understand they
didn't go to college," he says. "But their work is so
important, and requires the same skill and care and attention
that a machinist job requires. They should get those kind of
wages." Since the market's not making that happen, maybe
organizing could.
Dill herself points out that these low wages are
symptomatic of a direct link between the "stigma" of
feminized labor that those manly men avoid and its direct
economic consequences: "The kind of work that women do is
often not as valued, by society." So more broadly, maybe this
suggests that policy could speak to "the working man" in a
way that's also heard by the broader and more diverse working
class.
For all her frustration with the way she feels Democrats
have ignored or misunderstood seekers of "dignity (male
varietal)," Williams thinks so, too. "I don't think this is a
zero-sum game," she says. Aggressively advocating for ways to
create more and better middle-skill jobs will benefit workers
of any race or gender.
But doing that will require progressive policy thinkers to
dream bigger and push harder - to man up, you might say.
Not helpful
Our media relentlessly markets "culture" to males
Sports culture, car culture, gun culture &c are supported by
Big$
It is difficult to change the culture when Ad$$ are creating
headwinds.
It is all a BigLie, but very appealing
Cultural change is slow, one funeral at a time
Neoliberals seek to redistribute profits up and for this
noble goal all means are good. Including decimation of lower
80% of their compatriots. Who cares. They are all
cosmopolitans now.
"... In economics, liberalism espoused "neo-liberalism" which was the replacement economic ideology for social-democracy. It championed, especially under the Clinton-Blair duo, financial liberalization, much smaller welfare state, and so-called "meritocracy" which essentially meant the ability of the rich to place their kids into the best schools out of which 90% would graduate and thus "meritocratically" claim later in life huge wage premiums. Free trade agreement privileged, as Dean Baker has written, the interests of the rich in advanced economies through protection of patents and intellectual property rights and with scant or no attention to labor rights. In the international arena, through the World Bank and the IMF, Clintonite neo-liberalism was associated with Washington consensus policies. They are in many respects reasonable policies, but were applied dogmatically and mindlessly especially with respect to privatization and often with the principal objective of ensuring that the debts be collected regardless of the social effects on the population. Greece is the best known example of such policies because it sits in the middle of Europe and the results of "debt collections" are easiest to see. But the same principles were applied across the world. ..."
"... Underpinning such policies was an ideology that saw economic success as the only dimension (in addition to the acceptance of certain liberal tropes which I will mention below) in which worth of an individual is expressed or measured. ..."
"... Corruption. A corollary of this hyper-economicism in ordinary life was the corruption of the elites who espoused the same yardstick of success as everybody else: enrichment by all means. Avner Offer documents this shift in his analysis of where social-democracy went astray with "New Labour" and "New Democrats". The corruption of the political class, not only in the West but in the entire world, had a deeply corrosive and demoralizing effect on the electorates everywhere. Being politician became increasingly seen as a way to acquire personal riches, a career like any other, divorced from any real desire either to do "public service" or to try to promote own values and provide leadership. "Electoralism", that is doing anything to be elected, was liberalism's political credo. In that it presaged the populists. ..."
By "liberalism" I mean what is considered under this term in the US. By "to blame" I mean "for
the rise of Trump and similar nationalist-populists".
What are the arguments for seeing liberal triumphalism which began with the collapse of Communism
in the 1990s as having produced the backlash we are witnessing today? I think they can be divided
into three parts: economics, personal integrity, and ideology.
In economics, liberalism espoused "neo-liberalism" which was the replacement economic ideology
for social-democracy. It championed, especially under the Clinton-Blair duo, financial liberalization,
much smaller welfare state, and so-called "meritocracy" which essentially meant the ability of the
rich to place their kids into the best schools out of which 90% would graduate and thus "meritocratically"
claim later in life huge wage premiums.
Free trade agreement privileged, as
Dean Baker has written, the interests of the rich in advanced economies through protection of patents
and intellectual property rights and with scant or no attention to labor rights. In the international
arena, through the World Bank and the IMF, Clintonite neo-liberalism was associated with Washington
consensus policies. They are in many respects reasonable policies, but were applied dogmatically
and mindlessly especially with respect to privatization and often with the principal objective of
ensuring that the debts be collected regardless of the social effects on the population. Greece is
the best known example of such policies because it sits in the middle of Europe and the results of
"debt collections" are easiest to see. But the same principles were applied across the world.
Underpinning such policies was an ideology that saw economic success as the only dimension
(in addition to the acceptance of certain liberal tropes which I will mention below) in which worth
of an individual is expressed or measured.
That ideology found broad acceptance across the world,
fanned by globalization and by what that ideology has pleasing to the human psyche which craves acquisition
of more. It was thus consistent with human nature and probably helped increase world output several-fold
and reduce world poverty. But it might have been pushed too hard to the exclusion of other human
characteristics and helped create especially among those who were economically less successful resentment
and estrangement from the values promoted by liberals.
Corruption. A corollary of this hyper-economicism in ordinary life was the corruption of the
elites who espoused the same yardstick of success as everybody else: enrichment by all means. Avner
Offer documents this shift in his analysis of where social-democracy went astray with "New Labour"
and "New Democrats". The corruption of the political class, not only in the West but in the entire
world, had a deeply corrosive and demoralizing effect on the electorates everywhere. Being politician
became increasingly seen as a way to acquire personal riches, a career like any other, divorced from
any real desire either to do "public service" or to try to promote own values and provide leadership.
"Electoralism", that is doing anything to be elected, was liberalism's political credo. In that it
presaged the populists.
It is, I think, important to see the link between the economic ideology of "commercialism" which
informed economic policies since the early 1980s in the West and China, and since the 1990s in the
formerly Communist countries, and systemic and all-pervasive corruption of the elites. Since being
successful meant amassing most money, politicians could not operate in a different dimension (for
example in "ideals") nor could they get elected without being corrupt because campaigns could not
be fought without money. It is an illusion that the political space may operate according to different
rules from the rest of society.
Pensée unique. Liberalism introduced a dogmatic set of principles, "the only politically correct
way of thinking" characterized by identity politics and "horizontal equality" (no differences, on
average, in wages between men and women, different races or religions) which left actual inequality
go unchecked. A tacit hierarchy was introduced, where the acceptance of these watered-down principles
of equality combined with economic success, was the requirement to be "non-deplorable". Others, those
who did not do well economically or did not adhere to all the tenets of the mainstream thinking,
were not only failures but morally inferior.
The high priests of liberalism, ruling the media, loved to hold, at the same time, logically contradictory
beliefs which somehow were both "good". Thus they created terminological or behavioral contortions
that were either direct attacks on common sense or examples of hypocrisy as "supporting the troops"
while being "against the war" or giving enormous donations to private schools (in order to get their
names emblazoned in classrooms) while "supporting public education". They were not embarrassed by
contradictions, nor accepted trade-offs: you could support soldiers killing civilians "because soldiers
protect us" and be against the war and killing of civilians at the same time; you could send kids
to private schools and be in favor of public education; you could fret about climate change, berate
others who do not, and emit more CO2 than 99% of the mankind. It was ideologically an extremely comfortable
position. It required very little mental effort to accept five or six essential tenets (you could
just read a couple of writers who repeated ad nauseum the same ideas in the main liberal publications),
and it allowed you to do wherever you liked while claiming that every such action was ethically unimpeachable.
Everybody was a paragon of virtue and indulged all their preferences.
Others who failed to appreciate the advantages of such a position were ignored until their dissatisfaction
exploded. No one among liberals seemed to think it odd (much less to do something about it) that
the best educated country in the world with one of the highest world per capita GDPs, could have
a third of the population who believed in creationism or in aliens running our lives. It really did
not matter to the elite so long as these people existed in the Netherworld.
Those who trusted in Fukuyama, and to whom the 1990s seemed like a triumph that would keep them
at the pinnacle of human evolution forever, see today's events as a catastrophe not only because
they could indeed lead to a catastrophe but because their carefully nurtured ersatz ideology and
place in society have collapsed.
I am writing this in Vienna, in Prater, overlooking a giant Ferris Wheel which inevitably makes
one think of Harry Lime. One can see liberalism as having set the Ferris Wheel in motion, with each
car moving at first slowly and then faster and faster. The ride brought immense joy at first, but
eventually, it seems, somebody turned on the switch to super-fast, locked the control room, and most
of us are now in these cars that no one controls and no one can stop, running at break-neck speed,
and wondering how and when the crash will come.
"A corollary of this hyper-economicism
in ordinary life was the corruption of the elites who espoused the same yardstick of success
as everybody else: enrichment by all means. Avner Offer documents this shift in his analysis
of where social-democracy went astray with "New Labour" and "New Democrats". The corruption
of the political class, not only in the West but in the entire world, had a deeply corrosive
and demoralizing effect on the electorates everywhere. Being politician became increasingly
seen as a way to acquire personal riches, a career like any other, divorced from any real desire
either to do "public service" or to try to promote own values and provide leadership. "Electoralism",
that is doing anything to be elected, was liberalism's political credo. In that it presaged
the populists."
Think of Hillary's speeches to Goldman Sachs, etc, and Obama's failure to
throw bankers in jail.
Remaining silent and refusing to criticize Obomber to the
same degree that you bashed Bush prior to your Savior being
elected president makes you complicit in all the atrocities
that persisted under Obomber's reign.
There are probably 2
political parties that can claim to being against the war in
Afghanistan regardless of who has been president. Neither of
them are Rethuglicans or Dumbocrats.
And to EMichael, apologies for leaving you off the list of
morons so brain dead you cannot comprehend 'sunk cost
fallacy'. You are in the same league of deplorables as PGL
and DrDonk
EMichael is incapable of thinking. They are simply a dumb
Progtard that only knows Democrat = Good; Republican = Evil.
Says so in the chapter aptly named "The Book of Genesis" in
daily newsletter they receive from George Soros or one of
those billionaires playing EMichael for the fool they are.
I've got a feeling since Soros lost $1 billion betting
against Trump, Soros reduced the rate he pays for inane
left-wing propaganda from 1 penny per 5 posts to 1 penny per
10 posts.
EMichael reacted by making up for the rate discount through
volume.
stupid is one who ignores that Obama presidency growth
averaged 1.7% and failed to lift millions while wall street
prospered and corporate market power increased both in goods
and labor markets.
According to EMichael, it was all Republicans' fault, though
you never saw Obama/Reid/Pelosi beating their heads against
the wall, trying as hard as they could to rally the American
people against Republican obstructionism...
You actually had the opportunity to vote for someone in 2008
that would have pulled us out of the Middle East. Instead you
voted for Obomber and we continued to lose in Afghanistan.
Somehow you retards will be dumb enough to rationalize
blaming Bush and Trump for Afghanistan but fully absolving
Obomber who sat in the middle and did much of the same.
And you can't excuse Obomber "because Bush started it".
There is this wonkish academic term 'sunk cost fallacy'.
Unfortunately it is too wonkish for neanderthal brains like
PGL and DrDonk to ever comprehend.
Obama kept us out of Syria even though Hillary and all of the
hawks wanted us to increasingly get involved.
"And you can't excuse Obomber "because Bush started it"."
Yeah you can. Bush messed up the Middle East with his Iraq
war. How much money and lives did they waste? Bush and the
Republicans started it. Obama just had to deal with the
consequences, just like with the epic financial crisis.
Even Trump blamed Bush and the Republicans for the epic
disaster of Iraq. And primary voters agreed.
"Obama funded at least 5
years* of US funding and
training jihadis to
create so many Syrian
refugees."
And the sad
irony is that now
neoliberals want to
protect those refugees
who are fleeing Obama &
KSA financed jihadists,
who destroyed their towns
and the country in
general, as they want
cheap and obedient
workforce, which puts
pressure on already
struggling the USA
working class.
What a perversion...
Such a humanitarian
approach...
"... I happen to think the heartlessness of this Order was a feature, not a bug, in order to garner maximum attention. I just read Mish's comment section, and Trump's base is cheering. ..."
"... silent on ethnic racism and the rest of US so much more guilty ..... on drone assassination and militarist nation building gone awry, tilting with nuclear war to keep NATO less recondite, etc, etc....... ..."
"... Before the Nazi had the power to go after the Jews they had effect the party's police state, before which ordinary Germans [and whatever police there were after the depression shuttered everything] permitted the party to do organized violence on their opponents: the social democrats, socialists, bolshevists, et al. ..."
"... The ban on returning residents is utterly against the law. ..."
'Mr. Trump's executive
order is un-American, not Christian, and hopefully
unconstitutional. This is a shameful act and no good person
can remain silent.'
Thanks for saying this Bill. JFK International had a
demonstration against this ban that featured the detention of
a brave Iraqi who helped US troops. This ban is also
incredibly stupid.
I happen to think the heartlessness of
this Order was a feature, not a bug, in order to garner
maximum attention. I just read Mish's comment section, and
Trump's base is cheering.
But on a longer term scale, heartlessness towards
Muslim immigrants and DREAMers is going to turn persuadables
against Trump. That and the next recession.
We'll differ on this one part, people that voted for Trump
are not persuadables. They have always voted the same way in
every single election they have voted in.
Amazes me that
even now people keep thinking that Trump voters are anything
but loyal GOP voters. And I think the best argument against
this (besides common sense) is the reaction of Rep leaders to
this obviously illegal action.
They're silent.
They cannot afford to speak out against this racist
policy, as their own voters are for this racist policy.
silent on ethnic racism and the rest of US so much more
guilty ..... on drone assassination and militarist nation
building gone awry, tilting with nuclear war to keep NATO
less recondite, etc, etc.......
Are the libruls all
riled up because the immigrant ban might reduce terror
shootings in US to reduce screaming for techno-murder?
There were a fair amount of voters who "came home" to the GOP
before the election, even though they found Trump himself
distasteful. At least some of those nouveau-Reagan democrats
also voted for him because of his economic agenda. They
believed that his racism was all for show.
Once upon a time, for
academic reasons I read the same book that Trump was rumored
to have by his bedside in NYC: the english translation of the
full text of Adolf Hitler's speeches. Hitler's argument for
getting ordinary Germans to go along with his extreme
anti-Semitic agenda was masterful. It went in essence like
this: "I know that there are a very few good Jews, and you
may know a few of them. But the vast majority of Jews, who
you don't know, are evil. But in order to get to the mass of
bad apples, we might have to inflict some hardship on a few
good people." By getting people to overlook their own
experience with Jews they knew, he prevailed.
In contrast - for example - gay rights triumphed when
enough people knew gays in their ordinary lives, and realized
that they were no different from anybody else. So they were
unable to see any valid reason to discriminate against them.
This ban is much more like the second situation than the
first. It is inflicting a lot of pain on a lot of good
people, in order to get to (allegedly) a few bad apples, and
people can see that. It is not going to be popular.
Before the Nazi had the power to go after the Jews they
had effect the party's police state, before which ordinary
Germans [and whatever police there were after the depression
shuttered everything] permitted the party to do organized
violence on their opponents: the social democrats,
socialists, bolshevists, et al.
"We'll differ on this one part, people that voted
for Trump are not persuadables. They have always voted the
same way in every single election they have voted in."
Reminds me of the obstinate, closed-mindedness which Trump
voters direct at immigrants and Muslims.
Neoliberals have not delivered a growing, healthy economy
despite Krugman's claims that everything is great, crime is
down, etc.
Obama's record for 8 years is an average of 1.7
percent growth. NGDP is even worse which is why I support an
NGDP target for the Fed. It would show how poorly they have
done.
This after decades of corporate trade deals and a
shrinking middle class.
People are angry. They want scapegoats. Trump provided
them with scapegoats and the uneducated white working class
took the bait.
I appreciate Bill's judgement that Trump's acts are odious,
but "un-American, not Christian, and hopefully
unconstitutional" seems to be going too far.
It only takes a quick tour of historical US acts on
immigration to find plenty of precedent.
1870-1943, Chinese.
1882, lunatics.
1907, Japanese
1921, everybody.
1923, Indians.
1932, everybody, especially Mexicans.
Mme. Chiang Kai Shek (recently
deceased at age 106 on Long Island) has much to answer for
before the bar of history, but she had one shining moment.
Supposedly at one point during WW2 both she and Winston
Churchill were living at the White House (must have made for
interesting dinner conversation). Anyway, during that time
she gave a speech to Congress. In that speech she pointed out
that Japanese militarist propaganda, that America's myth of
liberty and equality before the law was hypocritical, had one
inconvenient feature: given the Chinese and Japanese
Exclusion Acts, it was true.
This speech was so shaming that Congress changed the law
to allow Asian immigation - in a trickle at first, but
thereafter a river.
Yes, and her teenage voyage to San Francisco ended with her
being treated exactly like the people being detained at
airports this weekend. It made a lifelong impression on her.
Yes, its pretty unremarkable. And you are correct the that
Christian Arab refugees from Syria have been accepted at 5%
of the rate their population would suggest:
"But the
numbers tell a different story: The United States has
accepted 10,801 Syrian refugees, of whom 56 are Christian.
Not 56 percent; 56 total, out of 10,801. That is to say,
one-half of 1 percent.
The BBC says that 10 percent of all Syrians are Christian,
which would mean 2.2 million Christians. It is quite obvious,
and President Barack Obama and Secretary John Kerry have
acknowledged it, that Middle Eastern Christians are an
especially persecuted group."
Here's a quite detailed discussion of the background around
the EO and its implementation ... including the 2015 law
limiting visas from those countries, and the reference for
the above quote. It also contrasts the headlines in much of
the press. As they say, read the whole thing.
"There is a postponement of entry from 7 countries (Iraq,
Syria, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and Yemen) previously
identified by the Obama administration as posing
extraordinary risks.
That they are 7 majority Muslim countries does not mean
there is a Muslim ban, as most of the countries with the
largest Muslim populations are not on the list (e.g., Egypt,
Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Turkey,
Nigeria and more).
Thus, the overwhelming majority of the Muslim world is not
affected.
Moreover, the "ban" is only for four months while
procedures are reviewed, with the exception of Syria for
which there is no time limit.
There is a logic to the 7 countries. Six are failed states
known to have large ISIS activity, and one, Iran, is a sworn
enemy of the U.S. and worldwide sponsor of terrorism.
And, the 7 countries on the list were not even
so-designated by Trump. Rather, they were selected last year
by the Obama administration as posing special risks for visa
entry ..."
I believe they don't mention that IIRC we were bombing 5
of the 7 counties on the list last month.
The current system relies on referrals from the United
Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Syria's population in
2011 was 90 percent Muslim and 10 percent Christian, CNS
said. Less than 3% admitted as refugees are Christian. But
not the state dept's doing.
I've seen some farmers of late complaining about Trump's
protectionism hurting their business. Yes they are smart
enough to realize that the dollar appreciation will reduce
their exports. Too bad these rural Americans were not smart
enough on election day not to vote Trump in as President.
The man knows only what he's seen on cable TV most of which
he doesn't understand. Knows nothing about: economics, trade,
foreign affairs, government, law, ... He epitomizes the know
nothings of the world, and, the fact that he doesn't know
doesn't bother him in the least. A narcissists-grandiose type
with neither regard nor interest for the probable
consequences.
I think it's wrong to even hope Trump turns out well. I think
the country needs act to save democracy, to save itself from
traveling down the road of despots and tyrants, from the
likes of Trump who can be manipulated by the likes of Bannon.
stupid is one who ignores that Obama presidency growth
averaged 1.7% and failed to lift millions while wall street
prospered and corporate market power increased both in goods
and labor markets.
"...Because of this uncertainty, big retailers like Walmart and Target, firms whose business model
depends on cheap imports, are fighting hard against the BAT, and let me assure you that their lobbyists
are neither amused nor entertained by elegant theories of full dollar adjustment. My strong suspicion
is that they'll kill this tax.
If so, wiping out a big payfor will severely crimp the full plan (as described by the TPC in the
link above) so I'm not sure what happens next. I like many aspects of this idea, especially the sales-based
destination part and the elimination of interest deductibility (unless you're running a private equity
firm, you should agree with me that heavily subsidizing leverage is a really bad idea). Also, if
the dollar doesn't fully adjust, the plan is likely to lower the trade deficit, though part of that
would be reflected in higher consumer prices, which probably catches the Fed's attention, and so
on into all sorts of unknowns.
But the main problem with the BAT is that it's part of a big, highly regressive tax plan that
ultimately delivers virtually all of its benefits to the top 1 percent while stiffing the Treasury,
on net, of much needed revenue. As I've written in many places, both this plan and President-elect
Donald Trump's plan are nothing more than the latest entries in the failed trickle-down tax cut experiment.
Their ultimate goals to further enrich the wealthy, shrink government and force large deficits could
well put social insurance programs on the chopping block.
If so, the BAT, for all its potentially useful attributes, is a swing and a miss."
"He serves on the board of two
cutting edge financial services startups-Square and Lending Club-and also serves on the board
of Premise. He chairs the boards of Citizen Schools and the Center for Global Development.
He serves on the board of Teach for America and ONE. He is an advisor to The Hamilton Project,
The Hutchins Center on Fiscal & Monetary Policy and the Peterson Institute for International
Economics. He is a distinguished senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and recently
co-chaired the Commission on Inclusive Prosperity."
"Trump-era tax reform could be coming for your toys"
Trump said the border tax is too complicated. But who
knows what he'll do, he's so mercurial. But notice how the
Koch brothers are opposed. This is where EMichael is wrong.
He wrote today:
"Amazes me that even now people keep thinking that Trump
voters are anything but loyal GOP voters."
Trump voters and his allies in Congress are economic
nationalists (plus cultural nationalists). The establishment
GOP isn't. From the piece:
"Woldenberg is part of a chorus of voices urging lawmakers
to walk away from the idea of a border adjustment tax. The
National Retail Federation, for example, has been criticizing
this tenet of the plan, saying it would simply result in
consumers seeing higher prices on store shelves.
"Economic theorists are playing with fire and it's the
consumer who ultimately will lose," said David French, NRF's
senior vice president for government relations, in a news
release issued this month.
Other groups, too, have expressed similar concerns,
including Americans for Prosperity, an advocacy group backed
by the Koch brothers.
"Border adjustability is nothing more than a tax on
American consumers," Tim Phillips, the group's president,
said in a statement. "We are against this approach because in
the end, it is making life more expensive for all Americans,
especially low and fixed-income families."
But they may face a tough audience on Capitol Hill. Rep.
Kevin Brady (R-Tex.), chairman of the House Ways and Means
Committee, is talking up the the border adjustment plan as a
framework for helping U.S. exporters. According to a
transcript of prepared remarks he made to the U.S. Chamber of
Commerce this month, Brady said, "This tax disadvantage on
'Made in America' products and services destroys true
competition. Worse, it often means the best location for a
U.S. company to sell to America is overseas. Why accept such
an unfair and job-killing tax code?"
The Washington Post is not a reliable arbiter. As Dean
Baker points out, they're often misleading.
Grover Norquist supports the deal because of the overall
package it comes in.
"Grover Norquist, famous for persuading members of
Congress to pledge that they won't raise taxes, says he's OK
with the so-called border adjustment tax being proposed by
the House GOP.
Norquist, head of Americans for Tax Reform and creator of
the Taxpayer Protection Pledge, made the announcement Tuesday
morning on CNBC, though he added that he supports the tax
only because it falls within a much larger package of tax
reform.
"If it was stand-alone, it would be no," but as part of a
"several trillion-dollar tax reduction package, the whole
package is pro-growth," he said."
This is kind of why PGL opposes it, because of the overall
deal, if I understand him correctly. So if it was
stand-alone, it wouldn't be so bad? He doesn't say.
GOP's border adjustment tax divides conservatives, pits
House against Trump
By Stephen Dinan - The Washington Times - Tuesday, January
24, 2017
"Congress's chief tax-law writer threw his support Tuesday
behind the House GOP's plans for a border adjustment tax,
igniting a ferocious debate that's already dividing
conservatives and pitting them against President Trump.
The president has said he wants to see punitive tariffs
aimed at companies that move operations outside the U.S., an
action he says will convince firms to build and sell here
instead.
But Ways and Means Chairman Kevin Brady said he'll work
instead on a border adjustment policy, which he said will
even out taxes between imports, exports and purely domestic
goods and services, making U.S. companies more competitive
without having to turn to a tariff.
"Eliminating the 'Made in America' tax is a simple but
powerful action we can take that will dramatically simplify
our international tax system and level the playing field for
American businesses and workers," the Texas Republican said
in a speech Tuesday at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.
House Speaker Paul D. Ryan has been pushing the border
adjustment for weeks, clashing with the new president, who
has said the system is too complicated. Mr. Trump's been
pushing to instead impose "major" tariffs to boost the price
of foreign goods, which he believes would make American
manufacturers more competitive."
"yuan" and PGL think Ryan and House Republicans will
prevail over Trump. I doubt it.
As President Donald Trump prepares - in the words of his
chief of staff - "a buffet of options" for dealing with
Mexico, trade and immigration, it's time for the Texas
congressional delegation to make a strong statement in
support of the North American Free Trade Agreement.
Though much of Trump's focus last week was on the border
wall (and ways to make Mexico pay for it), his focus next
week is expected to be on trade.
"President Trump has taken his first steps toward an
'America first' approach to international trade, pulling out
of the Trans-Pacific Partnership on Monday and reaffirming
his intent to renegotiate NAFTA, the North American Free
Trade Agreement," the Boston Globe reports. "What does this
mean for U.S. companies and American workers? Trump's
executive order to withdraw from the TPP is anticlimactic.
That agreement was already a dead-letter, having been
disclaimed by both presidential candidates and never ratified
by Congress. But a new NAFTA could upend U.S.-Mexican
relations and disrupt whole sectors of the US economy."
And that would be disastrous for Texas.
Texas companies, big and small, export a total of $92.5
billion worth of goods to Mexico each year. That figure
dwarfs second-place California, which exports just $26.8
billion of goods.
"From the booming border city of Laredo to the bustling
trading hub of Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas has become the
nation's top exporter of goods, according to the Federal
Reserve Bank of Dallas, and Mexico is its biggest customer,"
the Wall Street Journal explains. "Some 382,000 jobs in Texas
alone depend on trade with Mexico, according to 2014 data
released this month by the Woodrow Wilson International
Center for Scholars, a nonpartisan global research group.
Goods exported from Texas help support more than a million
jobs across the U.S., according to the U.S. Commerce
Department."
Texas' top exports to Mexico are computer and electronic
products, petroleum and coal products, chemicals, machinery
and transportation equipment.
As University of Oregon economist Mark Thoma points out,
"NAFTA isn't the problem, and tariffs aren't the answer."
He says Trump believes that NAFTA is the reason the U.S.
has lost manufacturing jobs. But that's not the case, he
explains.
"Domestic manufacturing's employment decline began long
before NAFTA came along," Thoma wrote for CBS News.
"According to University of California Berkeley professor
Brad DeLong's calculations, 'A sector of the economy that
provided three out of 10 nonfarm jobs at the start of the
1950s and one in four nonfarm jobs at the start of the 1970s
now provides fewer than one in 11 nonfarm jobs today.
Proportionally, the United States has shed almost two-thirds
of relative manufacturing employment since 1971.' In
addition, much of that drop can be attributed to
technological change - the rise of robots and digital
technology - rather than globalization. Renegotiating trade
agreements can't change this."
It's time for the Texas delegation to Washington to stand
up and say they won't support Trump's short-sighted attempts
to kill NAFTA. Ditching NAFTA would be a mistake.
What is the answer? Seems to me that 'liberal' economists are
convinced that they know what we should NOT be doing, but
come up short on proposals that will actually solve the
problem.
All the focus on blaming trade for loss of manufacturing
distracts from the real conversation needed: How can we
better address the dislocation of workers due to advances in
technology?
Trump and the right blame trade and believe
that better trade policies or tariffs or "shaking up the
markets?" will miraculously bring back coal mining and
manufacturing.
The anti-NAFTA left is focusing on the ant and ignoring
the elephant. This enables Trump by placing all focus on
trade. Why focus on government programs to help the
dislocated if the dislocation problem can be fixed by
renegotiating NAFTA? Serious ideas such as green energy jobs
are dismissed in favor of fixing trade instead. The
conversation will never turn to real solutions about how
modern manufacturing jobs increasingly require computer
skills, education and training.
Most small towns have lost jobs because the manufacturers
they do have are hiring fewer workers or not net expanding
their workforce. At the same time, service sector jobs remain
low pay and much opposition to raising minimum wage or
Obamacare to provide them with health insurance.
Having the comparative data on manufacturing employment as a
percent of total employment for the United States, Canada,
United Kingdom, Germany, France, Sweden, the Netherlands,
Australia and Japan, running from 1970 through 2012, what is
striking is the similarity of pattern.
Also striking is the
relation between gains in manufacturing productivity and
decline in percent manufacturing employment in the United
States.
Mark Thoma, Brad DeLong and Paul Krugman would appear to
be right about trade relations having fairly little to do
with the long term decline of percent of employment in
manufacturing in the United States or other developed
countries.
What Happened to Automation and Robots: WaPo Tells of
Labor Shortage in Japan
Wow, things just keep getting worse. Automation is taking
all the jobs, and the aging of the population means we won't
have any workers. Yes, these are completely contradictory
concerns, but no one ever said that our policy elite had a
clue. (No, I'm not talking about Donald Trump's gang here.)
Anyhow, the Washington Post had a front page story *
telling us how older people are now working at retirement
homes in Japan as a result of the aging of its population.
The piece includes this great line:
"That means authorities need to think about ways to keep
seniors healthy and active for longer, but also about how to
augment the workforce to cope with labor shortages."
You sort of have to love the first part, since folks might
have thought authorities would have always been trying to
think about ways to keep seniors healthy and active longer.
After all, isn't this a main focus of public health policy?
The part about labor shortages is also interesting. When
there is a shortage of oil or wheat the price rises. If there
were a labor shortage in Japan then we should be seeing
rapidly rising wages. We aren't. Wages have been virtually
flat in recent years. That would seem to indicate that Japan
doesn't have a labor shortage -- or alternatively it has
economically ignorant managers who don't realize that the way
to attract workers is to offer higher pay.
Remaining silent and refusing to criticize Obomber to the
same degree that you bashed Bush prior to your Savior being
elected president makes you complicit in all the atrocities
that persisted under Obomber's reign.
There are probably 2
political parties that can claim to being against the war in
Afghanistan regardless of who has been president. Neither of
them are Rethuglicans or Dumbocrats.
And to EMichael, apologies for leaving you off the list of
morons so brain dead you cannot comprehend 'sunk cost
fallacy'. You are in the same league of deplorables as PGL
and DrDonk
You actually had the opportunity to vote for someone in 2008
that would have pulled us out of the Middle East. Instead you
voted for Obomber and we continued to lose in Afghanistan.
Somehow you retards will be dumb enough to rationalize
blaming Bush and Trump for Afghanistan but fully absolving
Obomber who sat in the middle and did much of the same.
And you can't excuse Obomber "because Bush started it".
There is this wonkish academic term 'sunk cost fallacy'.
Unfortunately it is too wonkish for neanderthal brains like
PGL and DrDonk to ever comprehend.
"... I agree with much of what James F writes but one thing that doesn't sit right with me about him commentary is his implication that if your complaint isn't about an immediate threat to life and limb then your complaint is frivolous. That's bullshit. Immediate threats to life and limb require immediate attention but once those threats are dealt with then what? ..."
+1 for Frank's piece. "Meh." to James F's. His crankiness,
while justifiable, doesn't go anywhere.
Also, to say "Obama was defeated in the Massachusetts
senatorial campaign [in 2009, the special election to replace
Kennedy]." is to fundamentally misunderstand that race.
Coakley was a decent AG but utterly inept at connecting
with voters. Brown couldn't win a battle of wits with a
golden retriever but he was perceived as a nice guy. (Whether
he actually is a nice guy is open to debate.)
Brown's victory wasn't a repudiation of Obama; it was a
repudiation of Coakley.
I agree with much of what James F writes but one thing
that doesn't sit right with me about him commentary is his
implication that if your complaint isn't about an immediate
threat to life and limb then your complaint is frivolous.
That's bullshit. Immediate threats to life and limb require
immediate attention but once those threats are dealt with
then what?
Trivializing problems that
"comfortable people" call attention to is just a variation of
"Be thankful you have anything at all." which, at the risk of
overusing the phrase, is bullshit. Comfort the afflicted and
afflict the comforted but be self-aware enough to realize
that whatever your position it is it may change.
PS James F writes:
"We [people in flyover country] provide commodities
like food and coal and oil and metals."
Providing coal and oil may be a near-term necessity but
it's not doing anyone - "comfortable people", "deplorables"
or otherwise - any long-term favors. That you have acute
concerns which you need to deal with is not an excuse to turn
a blind eye to your impact on the world. It may be a reason
but it is not an excuse.
On the Mass race,
i think the failure of Democrats to fight with all their guns
for the 60th Senate seat was a major failure. They were not
willing to send their big guns to say "we cannot afford a
40th Republican, no matter how nice he is".
Good point. Much as I disagree with both bombing Muslims and
denying refugees, it is refreshing to see a president
actually try to accomplish what he believes in...after eight
years of a president who just shrugged his shoulders, told us
it can't be done, and that Americans should just suck it
up...the jobs are never coming back!
What 'liberal's fail
to understand is that Trump probably cares less about whether
he succeeds in banning Muslim immigrants and is more
concerned about how deplorables perceive how hard he is
trying.
If Obama and Hillary had tried half as hard as Trump to
accomplish things that working Americans wanted, then Trump
wouldn't be president. It is tragic that Democrats were more
interested in rolling over and having their bellies rubbed by
wealthy and powerful interests than beating their heads
against the wall for American workers.
In one way, the things that Trump is doing are similar to
what other newly elected presidents have done. In their first
weeks they try to reward the base voters by pushing through a
huge number of changes that are high on those voters'
agendas. Then they turn back to more normal, professional,
DC-oriented politics.
But in this case, we might not get a
return to normal. Possibly the most worrisome thing he is
done yet is put the lunatic cretin Bannon on the NSC, and
demote the Joint Chiefs and DNI. He's creating his own little
radical, ideological national security directorate of
wild-eyed, amateur outsiders and Holy Warriors.
He has already started a process for reviewing the US's
ISIS policies, including looking for ways to avoid
international law constraints. I expect that within a
relatively short time, he will launch a major, ruthless
military blitz against ISIS. He will team up with Putin to do
it. It will be combined with a domestic campaign of
persecution and intimidation directed against various kinds
of Muslims and non-Muslim political dissidents.
Trump believes he's the head of a movement, one that
overthrew the Republican establishment and faces unyielding
opposition from the press.
It's the economic and cultural nationalism of Jeff
Sessions and Bannon etc. He's a populist which is why he is
concerned with how popular he is. It's why the size of crowds
matters to him. It's why it matters whether or not he won the
popular vote. It's why he tweets directly at his supporters.
He repeatedly called Iraq a disaster on the campaign
trail. Many of his voters agree. I don't see him putting
boots on the ground, at least not for any extended period of
time or for an occupation. He's isolationist. America First.
They want to withdraw from the world, from alliances.
His Defense Secretary Mattis says torture doesn't work and
Trump said he'll defer to him. We'll see. Yes he'll probably
do some sort of military adventure but it will be drawn up by
Mattis and the generals. He'll declare victory and go home
and change the subject. When all is said and done he's a
real-estate developer and a con man. He'll use bombing ISIS
as a distraction. I see him as more like Berlusconi. Corrupt.
How many of the 9/11 terrorists came from Saudi Arabia? So if
all but one came from that country the travel ban on people
from 7 countries must certainly include Saudi Arabia, right?
No apparently not - because it could hurt Trumps personal
business deals. The criteria to select countries for this
cruel and completely unnecessary travel ban (leaving many
students at american universities stranded in their home
countries) has apparently not been designed based on actual
likelihood of terrorism.
Judge Blocks Trump Order on Refugees Amid Chaos
and Outcry Worldwide
https://nyti.ms/2jHS6tQ
NYT - MICHAEL D. SHEAR, NICHOLAS KULISH and ALAN FEUER - Jan
28
WASHINGTON - A federal judge in Brooklyn came to the aid
of scores of refugees and others who were trapped at airports
across the United States on Saturday after an executive order
signed by President Trump, which sought to keep many
foreigners from entering the country, led to chaotic scenes
across the globe.
The judge's ruling blocked part of the president's
actions, preventing the government from deporting some
arrivals who found themselves ensnared by the presidential
order. But it stopped short of letting them into the country
or issuing a broader ruling on the constitutionality of Mr.
Trump's actions. ...
In a rare middle-of-the night decision, two federal judges
in Boston temporarily halted President Trump's executive
order blocking immigrants from seven Muslim-majority nations
from entering the United States.
At 1:51 a.m., Judge Allison Burroughs and Magistrate Judge
Judith Dein imposed a seven-day restraining order against
Trump's executive order, clearing the way for lawful
immigrants from the seven barred nations – Iran, Iraq, Yemen,
Somalia, Sudan, Libya and Syria – to enter the US.
"It's a great victory today," said Susan Church, a lawyer who
argued the case in court. "What's most important about today
is this is what makes America great, the fact that we have
the rule of law."
The ruling prohibits federal officials from detaining or
deporting immigrants and refugees with valid visas or green
cards or forcing them to undergo extra security screenings
based solely on Trump's order. The judges also instructed
Customs and Border Protection to notify airlines overseas
that it is safe to put immigrants on US-bound flights. ...
Judge Who Blocked Trump's Refugee Order Praised
for 'Firm Moral Compass'
https://nyti.ms/2jDI930
NYT - CHRISTOPHER MELE - January 29, 2017
The federal judge who blocked part of President Trump's
executive order on immigration on Saturday night worked for
years in the Manhattan district attorney's office, where she
was one of the lead prosecutors on the high-profile Tyco
International fraud trial.
Colleagues remembered the judge, Ann M. Donnelly, as an
astute lawyer unfazed by the spotlight. She found herself in
its glare unexpectedly on Saturday night, when she heard an
emergency appeal from the American Civil Liberties Union
challenging the executive order barring refugees. She granted
a temporary stay, ordering that refugees and others detained
at airports across the United States not be sent back to
their home countries.
Enforcing Mr. Trump's order by sending the travelers home
could cause them "irreparable harm," Judge Donnelly ruled.
The order, just before 9 p.m., capped an intense day of
protests across the country by opponents of the order, which
suspended the entry of all refugees to the United States for
120 days, barred Syrian refugees indefinitely and blocked
entry for 90 days for citizens of seven predominantly Muslim
countries. ...
Protest Grows 'Out of Nowhere' at Kennedy Airport
After Iraqis Are Detained
https://nyti.ms/2jDgKhA
NYT - ELI ROSENBERG - January 28, 2017
It began in the morning, with a small crowd chanting and
holding cardboard signs outside Kennedy International
Airport, upset by the news that two Iraqi refugees had been
detained inside because of President Trump's executive order.
By the end of the day, the scattershot group had swelled
to an enormous crowd.
They filled the sidewalks outside the terminal and packed
three stories of a parking garage across the street, a mass
of people driven by emotion to this far-flung corner of the
city, singing, chanting and unfurling banners.
This was the most public expression of the intense
reaction generated across the country by Mr. Trump's
polarizing decision. While those in some areas of the country
were cheered (#) by the executive order, the reaction was
markedly different for many in New York. References to the
Statue of Liberty and its famous inscription became a
rallying cry.
Similar protests erupted at airports around the country.
Word of the protest at Kennedy first filtered out on
social media from the immigrant-advocacy groups Make the Road
New York and the New York Immigration Coalition. It seemed
like it might stay small.
But the drama seemed to rise throughout the day. ...
#- Trump's Immigration Ban Draws Deep Anger
and Muted Praise
https://nyti.ms/2jBezLG
NYT - RICHARD PÉREZ-PEÑA - Jan 28, 2017
A group of Nobel Prize winners said it would damage
American leadership in higher education and research. House
Speaker Paul D. Ryan and some relatives of Americans killed
in terrorist attacks said it was right on target. An
evangelical Christian group called it an affront to human
dignity.
The reaction on Saturday to President Trump's ban on
refugees entering the United States, with particular focus on
certain Muslim countries in the Middle East and Africa, was
swift, certain - and sharply divided.
The order drew sharp and widespread condemnation Saturday
from Democrats, religious groups, business leaders, academics
and others, who called it inhumane, discriminatory and akin
to taking a "wrecking ball to the Statue of Liberty."
Thousands of professors, including several Nobel laureates,
signed a statement calling it a "major step towards
implementing the stringent racial and religious profiling
promised on the campaign trail." ...
'Give me your tired, your poor:' The story behind the Statue
of Liberty's famous immigration poem
http://ti.me/2keeIFr
Time - Katie Reilly - January 28, 2017
In the wake of
President Donald Trump's executive order on immigration
Friday, many critics quickly took up a familiar rallying cry,
lifting words from the Statue of Liberty that have for
decades represented American immigration: "Give me your
tired, your poor / Your huddled masses yearning to breathe
free."
Former independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin,
Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison and former Secretary of State
Madeleine Albright all invoked those words - written by
American author and poet Emma Lazarus in 1883 - as they
condemned Trump's suspension of the country's refugee
assistance program. ...
The poet James Russell Lowell said he liked the poem "much
better than I like the Statue itself" because it "gives its
subject a raison d'être which it wanted before," according to
the New York Times.
"Emma Lazarus was the first American to make any sense of
this statue," Esther Schor, who wrote a biography on Lazarus,
told the Times in 2011. ...
"Wherever there is humanity, there is the theme for a
great poem," she once said, according to the Jewish Women's
Archives.
The poem was later published in New York World and the New
York Times, just a few years before Lazarus died in 1887.
The Statue of Liberty arrived in New York in 1885 and was
officially unveiled in 1886, but Lazarus' poem did not become
famous until years later, when in 1901, it was rediscovered
by her friend Georgina Schuyler. In 1903, the last lines of
the poem were engraved on a plaque and placed on the pedestal
of the Statue of Liberty, where it remains today.
The poem, in its entirety, is below:
The New Colossus
Not like the brazen giant of Greek fame,
With conquering limbs astride from land to land;
Here at our sea-washed, sunset gates shall stand
A mighty woman with a torch, whose flame
Is the imprisoned lightning, and her name
Mother of Exiles. From her beacon-hand
Glows world-wide welcome; her mild eyes command
The air-bridged harbor that twin cities frame.
"Keep ancient lands, your storied pomp!" cries she
With silent lips. "Give me your tired, your poor,
Your huddled masses yearning to breathe free,
The wretched refuse of your teeming shore.
Send these, the homeless, tempest-tost to me,
I lift my lamp beside the golden door!"
"... 'Yes, fuel for financial asset trading marketplaces makes even more sense when you realize that tax cuts give you even more speculative abilities without having to earn it through real investments, you know, the ones that require labor, materials, equipment, and marketing and selling efforts to produce real earnings in a real market. ..."
"... The other name for neoliberalism is casino capitalism. "When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done" ~John Maynard Keynes ..."
Market based capitalism has been undermined and the radical republican plans to offer even more
tax grants to the already wealthy are just evidence of this. I am not surprised that since the
election the data are moving downward.
Here is what I tried to give as a comment to Paul Mathis's note about financial assets:
'Yes, fuel for financial asset trading marketplaces makes even more sense when you realize
that tax cuts give you even more speculative abilities without having to earn it through real
investments, you know, the ones that require labor, materials, equipment, and marketing and selling
efforts to produce real earnings in a real market.
Of course we want real investments not political power expressions that pander away with tax
grants to the trading class of people. Can they not earn their largess like they did before all
the tax cutting lowered rates below any comparable society's? And that is the point to me, thus
group has learned that they can use self government to redistribute wealth, power and control
over future income flows - upward to themselves.
The world of earning has been turned upside down. The financial crisis just demonstrated this
in remarkable ways too as truly unreal, uneconomic leveraged financial asset trading was bailed
out.'
The other name for neoliberalism is casino capitalism. "When the capital development of
a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done"
~John Maynard Keynes
And so on.
The term itself was coined by Susan Strange who used it as a title of her book Casino Capitalism
published in 1986. She was one of the first who realized that
1. "The roots of the world's economic disorder are monetary and financial";
2. "The disorder has not come about by accident, but has in fact been nurtured and encouraged
by a series of government decisions." (p. 60).
In other words its was a counter-revolution of the part of ruling elite which lost its influence
in 30th (dismantling New Deal from above in the USA (Reaganomics) or Thatcherism in the GB).
According to Susan Strange transformation of industrial capitalism into neoliberal capitalism
("casino capitalism") involved five trends. All of them increased the systemic instability of
the system and the level of political corruption:
1.Innovations in the way in which financial markets work due to introduction of computers;
2. The sheer size of markets (401K, etc)
3. Commercial banks turned into investment banks;
4. The emergence of Asian nations as large players;
5. The shift to self-regulation by banks (pp.9-10).
I happen to think the heartlessness of this
Order was a feature, not a bug, in order to garner maximum
attention. I just read Mish's comment section, and Trump's
base is cheering.
But on a longer term scale, heartlessness towards Muslim
immigrants and DREAMers is going to turn persuadables against
Trump. That and the next recession.
We'll differ on this one part, people that voted for Trump
are not persuadables. They have always voted the same way in
every single election they have voted in.
Amazes me that
even now people keep thinking that Trump voters are anything
but loyal GOP voters. And I think the best argument against
this (besides common sense) is the reaction of Rep leaders to
this obviously illegal action.
They're silent.
They cannot afford to speak out against this racist
policy, as their own voters are for this racist policy.
ilsm -> EMichael...
, -1
silent on ethnic racism and the rest of US so much more
guilty ..... on drone assassination and militarist nation
building gone awry, tilting with nuclear war to keep NATO
less recondite, etc, etc.......
Are the libruls all riled
up because the immigrant ban might reduce terror shootings in
US to reduce screaming for techno-murder?
There is ONE form of resistance that isn't a
football-held-by-Lucy. It is the General Strike. They can
take away your vote, which is what Jobbernowl's voter fraud
squawk is about, but the can't take away your ability to NOT
WORK.
Admittedly, a General Strike is a long shot. But when
your only shot is a long shot, it is better than nothing.
State Department managers have quit en mass. Parks staff have
set up a rogue twitter. That is a start.
A few thoughts:
1. Not sold on the merits of State Dept mars quitting enough
masse. Seems easier to throw wrenches in the works when
you're in a position of power.
2. Make the lives of the goons making decisions as difficult
as possible - make it super inconvenient for them to get to
work, to buy groceries, to get a decent night's sleep, etc.
Be non-violent and obnoxious as possible.
3. The goons have enablers. Identify them. Introduce
yourself. Try to make friends with them. That's probably a
stretch but try to demotivate them. Engage them so that
they'd rather be your friend than enable the goon they're
tasked to enable.
My point with #3 is to win hearts and minds. Trump lost the
popular vote and is unpopular now. His behavior is going to
alienate people. Given where we're starting from, we should
be able to build a substantial majority. Give those who are
turned off by him something to say "Yes." to. Rejecting Trump
is a start but not an end in and of itself. Provide your
fellow citizens a positive alternative. Ignore the Democratic
party. Connect with your neighbors. Let them know that even
if you don't share their politics that you see them as decent
human beings and that you can get along. Obviously that's not
going to work with everyone but try to win over those who can
be won over.
America is not a democracy, but a Republic with checks and
balances.
What makes us great is not voting and electing leaders, but
our constitution and institutions that protect minority
rights against tyranny of the majority and the leaders.
There is utter disdain on the right for these institutions
after decades of waging war against government. The threat is
not to democracy, but to the protection of human and minority
rights.
I, too, am worried by our descent into prewar hatred. I had a friend from Dubrovnik in the'80s.
She was a typical Yugoslav – half Croatian, quarter Serbian, and a quarter Russian. She was full
of hope, smart, pretty, and heartbreakingly naïve. If she survived the war, I'm pretty sure my friend
lost what made her a beautiful human being. She haunts me. Civil wars seem implausible until they
start and then they follow the devil's logic. People like my friend tend to die in them or turn into
something less than they were in order to survive.
I'm an old man now working on my doctorate through a senior citizens' scholarship. I grew on the
North-East Coast. I live in the rural South now. I know people from everywhere because I've been
around a long time. Comfortable people from the cities, Democrat or Republican, want to hit someone,
hard but they have by and large never worn a uniform or had a gun pointed at their heads. They're
frustrated which makes sense but they don't know when a bloody fight is coming. You can smell it
coming like folks down here can smell a tornado or like mothers smell death on its way and snatch
their children off the front porch.
Here in Flyover Country things are bad, really bad. I recently visited family in Northern California.
Things were pretty nice. Not opulent by any means but the shelves were stocked. Security guards in
Target let the kids play around. Around here – not so much. Not so much as a Target. We have long
lines, empty shelves, and the kids, black and white, always seem aware that they're not safe. Comfortable
people in cities worry about reproductive health care. We worry about getting a four-dollar antibiotic
for pneumonia at Wal-Mart without having to spend several hundred bucks for the prescription (real
life experience with insurance). Our mean income is about a quarter of Northern California's. Housing
is cheaper but it's not cheap and it's a lot worse housing. Food and utilities are a lot more expensive.
Everything including food and medicine is taxed. We're dying here, slowly perhaps but we're dying
none the less.
Even so, my Democrat and Republican friends and family from the coasts couldn't care less about
my neighbors. They couldn't care less about fifteen years of war or the kids we send to fight it
or the kids our kids kill. I understand. It's only natural to look to one's own interests and what
happens in Natchez or Mosul doesn't hit home. However, they're all angry – angry at Flyover people
for being sick and poor and tired of being cannon fodder. And so I have to listen to why we don't
deserve jobs or health care because we're stupid. We should move or die because markets. I had to
justify FDR, religion, the very idea of peace, and social solidarity. I have to defend unions and
explain why my state voted for Trump – sometimes to the same person. I have to advocate for veterans,
the majority of cops that don't murder kids, and BLM while I'm trying to eat my potatoes. It's exhausting.
It's depressing.
Statistics show that urban areas are 'bluer'. They have better health care, better functioning
government, and better opportunities. However, not all urban dwellers are comfortable. Chicago has
world class hospitals, universities, and pizza. It also has an astronomical murder rate and a police
force that got caught torturing its citizens. It has a deep blue machine that excels in privatization.
Blue cities are rough with their mostly black and brown poor citizens but poor whites suffer too.
I know. I spent decades doing social work in city hell-scapes. I know what it's like to step over
bodies and have people bleed all over me. Crime isn't out of control when statistics say so. Crime
is out of control when you or people you love get hurt. Likewise, cops shooting unarmed black people
is a problem; cops shooting unarmed white people is a problem; people deciding to start an idiosyncratic
revolution by shooting cops is a problem; criminals killing kids is also a problem. Statistics and
social theory don't really matter at a child's funeral. Life is statistically better in blue enclaves
but there is a difference between Compton and Hollywood, Brookline and Dorchester, Harlem and Manhattan.
That's a brute fact that uncomfortable people face every day.
Flyover people and the uncomfortable urban poor fight the never-ending wars. We provide commodities
like food and coal and oil and metals. We provide cheap labor. Comfortable people have decided that
most of us aren't really needed. Immigration, free trade, and automation have made us redundant but
we're not going away. At least we're not going away fast. Flyover people and the uncomfortable urban
poor have no real place in establishment Democratic or Republican thinking. We are the establishment's
problem and the establishment is our problem.
Where do we go from here? Bernie had some good answers to some burning questions. Trump has some
very questionable answers to the same problems. I don't know if the Anarchists on Inauguration Day
had any answers but they recognized the problem. The comfortable people who posed with pussy hats
leave me questioning whether this country can or even should be saved. The comfortable protesters
certainly have the legal right to their comfortable lives and they have the legal right to advocate
for war with Russia and they have the legal right to hate the President and wear silly hats. They
have a legal right to despise the Deplorables and to petition to have sleeping homeless people removed
from their places of business. They have the legal right to demand respect for their sexual choices.
They have these legal rights because the government guarantees them and if they tear down the civic
peace of government, who will protect these rights? I don't know whether to laugh or cry when I see
the postmodern farce of Madonna in an orange prison jumper. Is she supposed to be King Christian
wearing the Star of David during Nazi occupation? Are Ashley Judd And Julia Roberts supposed to be
our Red Emma and our pistol packing Connie Markowitz? Is Lena Durham supposed to be our Marianne
or our Greece Expiring on the Ruins of Missolonghi? What I really want to know is will those people
drinking Starbucks die with us on the barricades because the differences between guerrilla theater
and guerrilla war are getting really blurry.
I don't want to get too snarky but I am getting pretty cranky. Revolutions, as Lenin insisted,
are not tea parties. In revolutions resisters get shot for showing courage; in films about revolutions
actors get applause for making a courageous performance. The Democratic Resistance may be as silly
looking as Teapartiers dressed in revolutionary drag but it is much more dangerous. In 2008, Obama
was really popular and he had the support of his own party. Obama failed to ram through his agenda
because he refused to rally the people who put him into office. By the time the Republicans hamstrung
his administration, he had already lost his momentum. Obama was defeated in the Massachusetts senatorial
campaign and by his failure to support Wisconsin's unions. McConnel's obstructionism and Trump's
birtherism were obnoxious but they didn't destroy Obama's agenda. Failure to push for card check,
Medicare for all, voter registration, prosecuting Wall Street fraud and war crimes, new trade deals,
authorizing the extra-judicial murder of US citizens, and overthrowing the government in Guatemala,
Ukraine, and Libya were the real disasters.
In 2016, Trump is much less popular than Obama in 2008. His most progressive polices (which he
shared with Sanders) like reversing trade agreements, renegotiating drug prices, building infrastructure,
and stopping a war with Russia depend on Democratic support. His own party hates him. Impeaching
or (God forbid) assassinating Trump would throw the entire government into the hands of Pence and
Ryan. That would re-gear the war on Russia, reinstate the trade deals and guarantee the end of the
New Deal and the Civil Rights era. Does anyone on the so-called Left really think that's a good idea?
There'd be a real fight then; the kind where lots of people die in loud and messy ways. Who is going
to do the fighting and dying then? I don't think it's going to be the people in pussy hats but I'm
sure I'll be going to plenty of funerals if I live that long.
Trump tantrums aside, you may be finding the whole border tax adjustment discussion confusing.
If so, you're not alone; I've worked in this area my whole life, I co-wrote a widely cited paper
* (with Martin Feldstein) on why a Value Added Tax isn't an export subsidy, and I have still had
a hard time wrapping my mind around the Destination-Based Cash Flow Tax border adjustment that
sort-of-kind-of constituted the basis for the Mexico incident.
But I have what I think may be a (relatively) easy way to think about it, which starts with
the competitive effects of a VAT, then analyzes the DBCFT as a change from a VAT.
So, first things first: a VAT does not give a nation any kind of competitive advantage, period.
Think about two firms, one domestic and one foreign, selling into two markets, domestic and
foreign. Ask how the VAT affects competition in each market.
In the domestic market, imports pay the border adjustment; but domestic firms pay the VAT,
so the playing field is still level.
In the foreign market, domestic firms don't pay the VAT, but neither do foreign firms. Again,
the playing field is still level.
So a VAT is just a sales tax, with no competitive impact.
But a DBCFT isn't quite the same as a VAT.
With a VAT, a firm pays tax on the value of its sales, minus the cost of intermediate inputs
– the goods it buys from other companies. With a DBCFT, firms similarly get to deduct the cost
of intermediate inputs. But they also get to deduct the cost of factors of production, mostly
labor but also land.
So one way to think of a DBCFT is as a VAT combined with a subsidy for employment of domestic
factors of production. The VAT part has no competitive effect, but the subsidy part would lead
to expanded domestic production if wages and exchange rates didn't change.
But of course wages and/or the exchange rate would, in fact, change. If the US went to a DBCFT,
we should expect the dollar to rise by enough to wipe out any competitive advantage. After the
currency adjustment, the trade effect should once again be nil. But there might be a lot of short-to-medium
term financial consequences from a stronger dollar.
I think this is right, and I hope it clarifies matters. Oh, and no, none of this helps pay
for the wall.
" If the US went to a DBCFT, we should expect the dollar to rise by enough to wipe out any competitive
advantage. After the currency adjustment, the trade effect should once again be nil. "
This is the big lie the progressive neoliberals like Krugman and PGL are pushing. Why? To combat
Trump's economic nationalism.
Trump told his advisers the tax is too complicates so it probably won't see the light of day.
He'll do the 20 percent import tax on Mexico to pay for the wall. Then he'll do something with
China.
Neoliberalism usually does not help countries like Bangladesh as electrification or the rural areas
of the county and creation of the national electrical grid is best done as a state run project. But
those games with PV panels is better then nothing.
Notable quotes:
"... Solar energy is reliable, clean and cheaper in the long run than kerosene and the village's generator. It costs about 3,000 taka ($38) a month for the diesel generator to light a three-room house. But for the solar equipment, Mr. Ali pays 1,355 taka ($17) in monthly installments after a down payment of 6,500 taka ($83) on a loan he expects to pay off within two years. ..."
"... Since 2003, Idcol has installed solar panels in 3.95 million off-grid homes, reaching 18 million people. In terms of individual units served (rather than total wattage), Bangladesh has become one of the world's largest markets for home solar systems. ..."
"... One factor in those comparisons is that solar energy has become a lifeline for low-income Bangladeshis, a great many of whom the grid does not reach. Although its big cities seem bright and bustling, just 25 percent of the population of 160 million have reliable electricity. ..."
"... Since electricity - even in small doses - powers lamps, cellphones, fans, water pumps, health clinics and equipment for businesses, it is critical in improving the lives of the poor. ..."
"... The difference in quality of life between no electricity and even very small amounts of electricity is huge. Cheaper solar panels, controller electronics, and very low power and robust LED lights have been critical to making this possible. ..."
"... Of course, most of these applications also need batteries for power storage. However, water pumps for example can be scheduled to run during the day when sunlight is most intense and solar power output is highest. A fairly modest water pump can eliminate a huge amount of arduous human labor. ..."
In Rural Bangladesh, Solar Power Dents Poverty
By Amy Yee
KAKHIN BIMILE, Bangladesh - Kismat Ali is a 33-year-old mason living in Kakhin Bimile, a village
a few hours drive from Dhaka, Bangladesh's crowded capital. He lives in a large brick home on
a dirt road with his wife, son, parents and five brothers.
This semirural area is off the main electrical grid, so residents rely on kerosene lamps and
electricity from wires strung across the village to a noisy privately owned diesel generator.
It runs about five hours each night.
But Mr. Ali has a new source of electricity he can turn to: solar panels on his corrugated
metal roof. In his home, he flicks a light switch and a bare bulb glows from the ceiling. Mr.
Ali proudly switches on a fan that stirs the stultifying summer air. He says he wants to have
a television one day, but is waiting for an LED TV that would consume less energy than models
available now.
Solar energy is reliable, clean and cheaper in the long run than kerosene and the village's
generator. It costs about 3,000 taka ($38) a month for the diesel generator to light a three-room
house. But for the solar equipment, Mr. Ali pays 1,355 taka ($17) in monthly installments after
a down payment of 6,500 taka ($83) on a loan he expects to pay off within two years.
In rural Bangladesh, especially the coastal southwest, it is common to see tiny solar panels
embedded even in humble thatch-roofed huts. This is mostly the work of Infrastructure Development
Company Limited (Idcol), a government-backed Bangladeshi energy and infrastructure group that
claims more than 90 percent of the country's booming home solar market.
Since 2003, Idcol has installed solar panels in 3.95 million off-grid homes, reaching 18
million people. In terms of individual units served (rather than total wattage), Bangladesh has
become one of the world's largest markets for home solar systems.
By comparison, Selco, a leading solar company in neighboring India, has installed about 350,000
home systems since 1995 in a country of 1.2 billion people. In the United States, even after exponential
growth in solar in recent years, there were just 784,000 home and business solar installations
in 2015.
One factor in those comparisons is that solar energy has become a lifeline for low-income
Bangladeshis, a great many of whom the grid does not reach. Although its big cities seem bright
and bustling, just 25 percent of the population of 160 million have reliable electricity.
Since electricity - even in small doses - powers lamps, cellphones, fans, water pumps,
health clinics and equipment for businesses, it is critical in improving the lives of the poor.
Mahmood Malik, chief executive of Idcol in Dhaka, calls its arrival for the rural poor "a silent
revolution you can't feel sitting in the city." ...
The difference in quality of life between no electricity and even very small amounts of electricity
is huge. Cheaper solar panels, controller electronics, and very low power and robust LED lights
have been critical to making this possible.
Of course, most of these applications also need batteries for power storage. However, water
pumps for example can be scheduled to run during the day when sunlight is most intense and solar
power output is highest. A fairly modest water pump can eliminate a huge amount of arduous human
labor.
And as another benefit, retiring small generators like that, which are among the dirtiest sources
of power.
As I've remarked before, people will voluntarily move to cleaner power when its cheaper and
better. Good to see this happening.
Paul Krugman and the Republican Corporate Income Tax
Proposal
The current corporate income tax is a massive cesspool.
There are so many routes for avoidance that it is almost
becoming voluntary. This matters not only because we don't
get the revenue we should from the tax, but also because it
has created a massive tax avoidance industry.
The tax avoidance industry is a big deal. This is an
industry that contributes nothing to the economy. It involves
people designing clever tricks to allow corporations to avoid
paying their share of taxes.
The tax avoidance industry is also an important source of
inequality since it is possible to get very rich designing
clever ways to avoid taxes. My colleague Eileen Appelbaum
(along with Rose Batt) show how the private equity industry
is largely a tax avoidance industry in their recent book.
"Private Equity at Work." Many of the very richest people in
the country got their wealth as private equity fund partners.
In his movie, "Capitalism: A Love Story," Michael Moore
highlighted "dead peasant" insurance policies. This is when a
major company like Walmart buys life insurance policies on
tens of thousands of front line workers, like checkout
clerks. Usually the insuree doesn't even know of the
existence of the policy, but if they die, the company
collects.
Moore emphasized the morbid nature of this game, but
missed the real story. The point of these policies is to
smooth profits, partly to manipulate share prices, but also
for tax purposes. The real highlight of this story is that
there is someone who likely got very rich by developing dead
peasant insurance policies, rather than contributing anything
productive to the economy.
I mention this as background to the corporate income tax
discussion since to my view a major goal of corporate tax
reform is to eliminate the enormous opportunities for gaming
that currently exist. These opportunities are making some
people very rich and are a complete waste from an economic
standpoint.
For this reason, I am sympathetic to the plan the
Republicans are debating. In its conception it would be
enormous simplification relative to the current system. Of
course, that is the conception, we will have to see the plan
as it is drafted in legislation to reach any final judgement.
In this vein, I have been unhappy to see some of the
attacks leveled by people for whom I have considerable
respect, notably Paul Krugman. In a post * yesterday, Krugman
makes the case that the basic tax proposal would be a subsidy
for domestic production and therefore inconsistent with free
trade principles.
While I don't disagree with the logic, I question its
importance. He contrasts the border adjustment with the
Republican tax proposal with the border adjustment with a
traditional value-added tax (VAT), pointing out that the
latter doesn't give a domestic production subsidy in the same
way. There are two important points left out of Krugman's
discussion.
The first is the issue of size. VATs in our trading
partners typically raise well over ten percent of GDP in
revenue and sometimes more than 20 percent. By contrast, the
corporate income tax has raised less than 1.7 percent of GDP
in recent years. The Republicans are undoubtedly looking to
reduce this amount further in their tax reform (hopefully
they will not succeed), but the imposition of a tax equal to
15 percent of GDP matters much more for trade than a tax
equal to 1.7 percent of GDP. (Suppose the dollar falls or
rises by 1.7 percent in a week, as it often does. This has
the same impact.)
The second issue is the point of reference. We don't
currently have a VAT in the United States. We have various
taxes that are assessed in the production process, including
the income tax workers pay on their wages, that get passed on
in the price of the product. If we snapped our fingers and
replaced the income tax with a value added tax, we would then
refund this tax on exported products. That would look like an
export subsidy, relative to our current system. Similarly, we
would slap the VAT on all items that are imported. That would
look like an import tariff, relative to our current system.
Conventionally, economists urge us not to worry about this
issue, since changes in currency values will even things out.
This is probably true, at least over the long-run if not
immediately in a transition process. This is a situation
where we should accept the economists' conventional wisdom on
the net effect on trade, remembering that the amount at stake
as an export subsidy or import tariff is just not that large
in any case.
The Republican tax proposal, when it is actually put on
the table, should be evaluated based on the extent to which
it eliminates the waste associated with the tax avoidance
industry and also for the amount of revenue it raises.
Arguing for its rejection based on it being an unfair subsidy
for domestic production is just silly.
There are plenty of very real reasons not to like the
things Republicans are putting forward in the Trump
administration. We don't have to invent fake ones.
The Clintons, Robert Rubin, Larry Summers, tech execs and
lots of other Democrats really like the current tax system,
although most of them advocate tweaks to burnish their
liberal credentials.
Did you bother to read what Summers wrote in the Financial
Times on January 7? Cochrane linked to it. He wants a real
reform of the tax code. Just not the Destination Based Cash
Flow Tax. So your comment here is simply false.
Too bad Summers and you wanted Hillary b/c she ended up
losing to a laughable reality TV star and now you won't be
able to do real reform of the tax code.
"... Your analysis is wrong. The wealthy elites backed Jeb! Bush and Rubio. Trump picked up the economic nationalism of Jeff Session, Steve Bannon and talk radio. The rubes voted for Trump in the primary even though the wealthy spent a lot on their candidates. The rubes want to scapegoat both parties (Bill Clinton and the corrupt Republican insiders - drain the swamp). ..."
"... Trump channeled the anger of the rubes. Hillary didn't get the turnout that hope and change Obama got. She flip-flopped on the TPP while Obama spent his remaining months trying to pass it. Now it's dead. ..."
"... The actual solutions will require sacrifice from the rich. Even more important (and difficult); it will require that we abandon the narrative of the rugged individual who "takes care of himself" and "don't need no gobinment". The future belongs to countries that can build up effective systems to educate each individual to the fullest extend of their capabilities (not their wallets) - thereby making sure that critical human resources do not go to waste. The future doesn't belong to the dying empire of the US. ..."
"... Obama averaged 1.7 percent annual GDP growth over his 8 years after the largest financial crisis since the Great Depression. ..."
"... This is very true. Even if you want to quibble about whether trade is somewhat more important than Delong says it is. The real problem is the US does not have a functioning workforce policy. ..."
"... And trade is more easily scapegoated- I mean who can argue against technological progress? The overall problem will not be addressed by focusing all attention on job loss due to trade. ..."
"... Excellent comment by jonny bakho. Much better than Delong's I think. ..."
"... But it is also true that scapegoating trade can get you votes, so there is a political problem. ..."
Worker dislocation by factory closings and layoffs is an issue the US does not address very well
for lack of a workforce policy
Dislocations can be caused by offshoring and trade
Dislocations can be caused by technological advance.
We make more goods today with fewer workers; from 30 percent to 8.6 percent
As DeLong points out, 18 of the 21% loss is due to technology.
0.1% is due to NAFTA and trade agreements.
The problem of worker dislocation will never be addressed if all the focus is on the 0.1% and
the 18% is ignored.
The wealthy elites are happy to scapegoat NAFTA because addressing dislocation properly would
require transfer payments. The wealthy always want to avoid paying their fair share so they are
more than happy to blame NAFTA and cheer on the pols who scapegoat trade. The wealthy don't tolerate
pols that propose to truly address the issue in ways that involve transfer payments.
It is easy to drum up anti trade sentiments using xenophobia, racism and nativism. It is more
difficult to get people to be introspective and consider changing what they do
Your analysis is wrong. The wealthy elites backed Jeb! Bush and Rubio. Trump picked up the
economic nationalism of Jeff Session, Steve Bannon and talk radio. The rubes voted for Trump in
the primary even though the wealthy spent a lot on their candidates. The rubes want to scapegoat
both parties (Bill Clinton and the corrupt Republican insiders - drain the swamp).
Dean Baker:
"The 2016 GDP growth brought the average for the eight years of the Obama administration to
1.7 percent."
Trump channeled the anger of the rubes. Hillary didn't get the turnout that hope and change
Obama got. She flip-flopped on the TPP while Obama spent his remaining months trying to pass it.
Now it's dead.
You are absolutely correct. The actual solutions will require sacrifice from the rich. Even
more important (and difficult); it will require that we abandon the narrative of the rugged individual
who "takes care of himself" and "don't need no gobinment". The future belongs to countries that
can build up effective systems to educate each individual to the fullest extend of their capabilities
(not their wallets) - thereby making sure that critical human resources do not go to waste. The
future doesn't belong to the dying empire of the US.
Yes. The wealthy will need to sacrifice to fund these programs. And yes, the idea of every man
for himself (rugged individual) needs to be abandoned.
Unfortunately, racism gets in the way of educating ALL Americans and hurts all poor people,
not just blacks and Hispanics. Abandoning white male patriarchy will require sacrifice on the
part of many.
"It is easy to drum up anti trade sentiments using xenophobia, racism and nativism."
Only in bad times. People want scapegoats.
Obama averaged 1.7 percent annual GDP growth over his 8 years after the largest financial
crisis since the Great Depression.
More people voted for Hillary, but Sanders ran a popular campaign. Trump wont the primary and
electoral college by playing to the uneducated's fears and attacking the elite as corrupt.
Yes he scapegoated trade and offshoring, but he provided an explanation for the stagnating
incomes and shrinking middle class that voters have been experiencing for decades.
"Worker dislocation by factory closings and layoffs is an issue the US does not address
very well for lack of a workforce policy.
Dislocations can be caused by offshoring and trade
Dislocations can be caused by technological advance
We make more goods today with fewer workers; from 30% to 8.6%. As Delong points out 18 of
the 21% loss is due to technology.
.1% is due to Nafta and trade agreements.
The problem of worker dislocation will never be addressed if all the focus is on the 0.1%
and the 18% is ignored."
This is very true. Even if you want to quibble about whether trade is somewhat more important
than Delong says it is. The real problem is the US does not have a functioning workforce policy.
And trade is more easily scapegoated- I mean who can argue against technological progress?
The overall problem will not be addressed by focusing all attention on job loss due to trade.
Excellent comment by jonny bakho. Much better than Delong's I think.
"... Solar is niche method of producing electricity and will remain as such unless the technological breakthrough are achieved. It will probably never reach over 10% of world electricity production in our life span. ..."
"... A single nuclear reactor with turbines is capable of producing 1,000 megawatts (MW) and there can be a half-dozen of such reactors within a single station, while the largest PV plant which probably costs twice more than a nuclear reactor is limited to around 250 MW for 8 hours a day. ..."
"... At the current technology level CSP plans are probably more viable as they can use molten salts for energy storage and thus continue generating electrical energy in "after sunset" hours ..."
We have a political and an economic problem. Trump campaigned
on trade will try to solve a non-problem. The result will not
be pretty.
If it ain't broke, don't fix it!
Politically, the far left agrees that trade is also the
problem and that reinforces Trump's message and actions. The
far left still wants to fight the NAFTA non-issue and can't
let it go and move on to the real solutions. This cedes the
playing field to Trump. Trade raises powerful emotions and in
the 2016 campaign sucked all the oxygen away from industrial
policy aimed at rust belt and green energy transformation.
That ship has sailed. Trump is not going there. He will
reorganize trade instead. In the next 4 years, China will
dominate the world solar manufacturing and create many new
jobs that could have been in the rust belt. China will be
competitive in the electric car market and may benefit from
Chinese government subsidies that will put American companies
at a disadvantage because BigOil will block subsidies to US
companies. Rust belt voters, living in the past, were
convinced that NAFTA and trade were the problems and were not
willing to listen to messages about economics transformation.
" In the next 4 years, China will dominate the world solar
manufacturing and create many new jobs that could have been
in the rust belt"
I wish Chinese good luck with this. If
they do not have good engineers they need to suffer from
malinvestment.
Solar is niche method of producing electricity and will
remain as such unless the technological breakthrough are
achieved. It will probably never reach over 10% of world
electricity production in our life span.
A single nuclear reactor with turbines is capable of
producing 1,000 megawatts (MW) and there can be a half-dozen
of such reactors within a single station, while the largest
PV plant which probably costs twice more than a nuclear
reactor is limited to around 250 MW for 8 hours a day.
There is a huge issue of ERoEI of PV panels(sorry PV
enthusiasts).
At the current technology level CSP plans are probably
more viable as they can use molten salts for energy storage
and thus continue generating electrical energy in "after
sunset" hours
== quote ==
Solar power is the conversion of sunlight into
electricity, either directly using photovoltaics (PV), or
indirectly using concentrated solar power (CSP). CSP systems
use lenses or mirrors and tracking systems to focus a large
area of sunlight into a small beam.
... ... ...
Commercial CSP plants were first developed in the 1980s.
Since 1985 the eventually 354 MW SEGS CSP installation, in
the Mojave Desert of California, is the largest solar power
plant in the world.
Other large CSP plants include the 150 MW Solnova Solar
Power Station and the 100 MW Andasol solar power station,
both in Spain.
The 250 MW Agua Caliente Solar Project, in the United
States, and the 221 MW Charanka Solar Park in India, are the
world's largest photovoltaic plants.
...In 2013 solar generated less than 1% of the world's
total grid electricity.[58]
== end of quote ==
Percentage of the solar electrical energy production using
PV panels is in single digits right now (may be even less
then 1%) and probably will remain in single digits for the
rest of our lives.
The cost (and the complexity) of integration of wind and
solar into the national grid is tremendous. As Germany
already discovered to their (and especially their neighbors,
grids of which suffered too) great surprise.
Ignoring this cost is a definite "true-believer syndrome".
Please stop posting such nonsense.
There is no sense to exaggerate the value and the future
of solar energy production using PV panels. Even wind is a
better deal.
"... After the neoliberal media tantrums and dirty tricks during the last Presidential campaign (where they played a role of a part of Hillary campaign staff), I strongly doubt that Trump forgot what they have done to him and his family. ..."
"... Now they need to face consequences... ..."
"... But he needs to remember that as a French noblewoman said "revenge is a dish best served cold." -- "La vengeance est un plat qui se mange froide" from Pierre Choderlos de Laclos's epistolary novel Les Liaisons Dangereuses, 1782. ..."
President Donald J. Trump lashed out at the New York Times and Washington Post in a series
of tweets Saturday morning, continuing a long-running feud he has had with the media.
Trump said in the tweets (that appeared to include several typos) that the coverage of him
by the Times and Post has been "so false and angry that the times actually apologized."
"They got me wrong right from the beginning and still have not changed course, and never will.
DISHONEST," he said.
He said the "failing" Times "has been wrong about me from the very beginning. Said I would
lose the primaries, then the general election. FAKE NEWS!"
The Times's public relations department issued its own tweet, saying, "Fact check: @nytimes
subscribers & audience at all-time highs. Supporting independent journalism matters."
Trump has used Twitter before to attack what he calls "dishonest media" outlets. He has lashed
out against the Times several times since his election in November. His use of Twitter has been
been unprecedented among presidents.
Trump's mention of an "apology" by the Times apparently referred to a post-election letter
to Times readers by the publisher and executive editor. In it, they asked whether Trump's "sheer
unconventionality" in an "erratic and unpredictable election" had led "us and other news outlets
to underestimate his support among American voters?" ...
Both the Post and Times have been covering Trump extensively as he engaged in a flurry of actions
during his first week. The coverage has included a detailed Times review of his first week and
a review by the Post of the misleading statements he's made.
President Trump's first seven days of false claims, inaccurate statements and exaggerations
http://wpo.st/HCTW2
The tweetstorm came Trump is expected to speak on the phone Saturday with Russian President
Vladimir Putin. That is sparking concern among European allies and his own Republican Party about
the future of US sanctions on Moscow.
After the neoliberal media tantrums and dirty tricks during the last Presidential campaign
(where they played a role of a part of Hillary campaign staff), I strongly doubt that Trump forgot
what they have done to him and his family.
Now they need to face consequences...
But he needs to remember that as a French noblewoman said "revenge is a dish best served
cold." -- "La vengeance est un plat qui se mange froide" from Pierre Choderlos de Laclos's epistolary
novel Les Liaisons Dangereuses, 1782.
Donald Trump has indicated * that he might slap high tariffs on imports from Mexico as a way
to make the country pay for his border wall. While it's not clear this makes sense, since U.S.
consumers would bear the bulk of the burden from this tax, it would certainly reduce imports from
Mexico. It would also would violate the North American Free Trade Agreement and World Trade Organization
rules, thereby opening the door to a trade war with Mexico and possibly other countries.
Many have seen this as taking us down a road to ever higher tariffs, leading to a plunge in
international trade, which would have substantial economic costs for everyone. However, Mexico
could take an alternative path that would provide far more effective retaliation against President
Trump, while leading to fewer barriers and more growth.
The alternative is simple: Mexico could announce that it would no longer enforce U.S. patents
and copyrights on its soil. This would be a yuuge deal, as Trump would say.
To take one prominent example, suppose that Mexico allowed for the free importation of generic
drugs from India and elsewhere. The Hepatitis C drug Solvaldi has a list price in the United States
of $84,000. A high quality generic is available in India for $200. There are also low cost generic
versions available of many other drugs that carry exorbitant prices in the United States, with
savings often more than 95 percent.
Suppose that people suffering from Hepatitis C, cancer, and other devastating and life-threatening
diseases could get drugs in Mexico for a few hundreds rather than tens or even hundreds of thousands
of dollars in the United States? That would likely lead to lots of business for Mexico's retail
drug industry, although it would be pretty bad news for Pfizer and Merck.
The same would apply to other areas. Medical equipment, like high-end scanning and diagnostic
devices, would be very cheap in Mexico if they could be produced without patent protections. This
should be great for a medical travel industry in Mexico.
There would be a similar story on copyright protection. People could get the latest version
of Windows and other software for free in Mexico with their new computers. This is bad news for
Bill Gates and Microsoft, but good news for U.S. consumers interested in visiting Mexico, along
with Mexico's retail sector. Mexico could also make a vast amount of recorded music and video
material available without copyright protection. That's great news for consumers everywhere but
very bad news for Disney, Time-Warner, and other Hollywood giants.
Of course the erosion of patent and copyright protection will undermine the system of incentives
that now support innovation and creative work. This means that we would have to develop more efficient
alternatives to these relics of the feudal guild system. Among other places, folks can read about
alternative in my book, "Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured
to Make the Rich Richer" ** (it's free).
Anyhow, this would be a blueprint for a trade war in which everyone, except a few corporate
giants, could be big winners.
Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich
Richer
By Dean Baker
The Old Technology and Inequality Scam: The Story of Patents and Copyrights
One of the amazing lines often repeated by people in policy debates is that, as a result of
technology, we are seeing income redistributed from people who work for a living to the people
who own the technology. While the redistribution part of the story may be mostly true, the problem
is that the technology does not determine who "owns" the technology. The people who write the
laws determine who owns the technology.
Specifically, patents and copyrights give their holders monopolies on technology or creative
work for their duration. If we are concerned that money is going from ordinary workers to people
who hold patents and copyrights, then one policy we may want to consider is shortening and weakening
these monopolies. But policy has gone sharply in the opposite direction over the last four decades,
as a wide variety of measures have been put into law that make these protections longer and stronger.
Thus, the redistribution from people who work to people who own the technology should not be surprising
- that was the purpose of the policy.
If stronger rules on patents and copyrights produced economic dividends in the form of more
innovation and more creative output, then this upward redistribution might be justified. But the
evidence doesn't indicate there has been any noticeable growth dividend associated with this upward
redistribution. In fact, stronger patent protection seems to be associated with slower growth.
Before directly considering the case, it is worth thinking for a minute about what the world
might look like if we had alternative mechanisms to patents and copyrights, so that the items
now subject to these monopolies could be sold in a free market just like paper cups and shovels.
The biggest impact would be in prescription drugs. The breakthrough drugs for cancer, hepatitis
C, and other diseases, which now sell for tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars annually, would
instead sell for a few hundred dollars. No one would have to struggle to get their insurer to
pay for drugs or scrape together the money from friends and family. Almost every drug would be
well within an affordable price range for a middle-class family, and covering the cost for poorer
families could be easily managed by governments and aid agencies.
The same would be the case with various medical tests and treatments. Doctors would not have
to struggle with a decision about whether to prescribe an expensive scan, which might be the best
way to detect a cancerous growth or other health issue, or to rely on cheaper but less reliable
technology. In the absence of patent protection even the most cutting edge scans would be reasonably
priced.
Health care is not the only area that would be transformed by a free market in technology and
creative work. Imagine that all the textbooks needed by college students could be downloaded at
no cost over the web and printed out for the price of the paper. Suppose that a vast amount of
new books, recorded music, and movies was freely available on the web.
People or companies who create and innovate deserve to be compensated, but there is little
reason to believe that the current system of patent and copyright monopolies is the best way to
support their work. It's not surprising that the people who benefit from the current system are
reluctant to have the efficiency of patents and copyrights become a topic for public debate, but
those who are serious about inequality have no choice. These forms of property claims have been
important drivers of inequality in the last four decades.
The explicit assumption behind the steps over the last four decades to increase the strength
and duration of patent and copyright protection is that the higher prices resulting from increased
protection will be more than offset by an increased incentive for innovation and creative work.
Patent and copyright protection should be understood as being like very large tariffs. These protections
can often the raise the price of protected items by several multiples of the free market price,
making them comparable to tariffs of several hundred or even several thousand percent. The resulting
economic distortions are comparable to what they would be if we imposed tariffs of this magnitude.
The justification for granting these monopoly protections is that the increased innovation
and creative work that is produced as a result of these incentives exceeds the economic costs
from patent and copyright monopolies. However, there is remarkably little evidence to support
this assumption. While the cost of patent and copyright protection in higher prices is apparent,
even if not well-measured, there is little evidence of a substantial payoff in the form of a more
rapid pace of innovation or more and better creative work....
"... most reports on Mexican employment aggregate manufacturing jobs with "industry", which would include oil gas drilling and construction...i did find one graph that shows a 20%, 5 million job jump in Mexican industrial employment in the first six years after NAFTA, but they never reached their prior peak, and i find the rest of the period inconclusive, not knowing much about Mexican business cycles: ..."
The percentage of employees working in manufacturing in the
US fell in a long surprisingly straight line from the late
1960s. The big drop in employee count in 2000 was a result of
the collapse of the dot-com boom. There has been a long,
steady downward pressure on manufacturing jobs, but we see
big drops in their absolute numbers in just about every
recession.
I do know that the 1990s were a big decade for increased
manufacturing efficiency. Supercomputers and
micro-controllers changed the way we designed and built cars,
cans and washing machines, for example. I know Silicon Valley
was rapidly changing the way computers were assembled as
design rules made chip design easier and new techniques made
chip placement and connection simpler. Does anyone even use a
wire wrap gun anymore? There was also the impact of the
Japanese challenge of the 1980s which made manufacturers
rethink their supply chain and encouraging robotics and
continuous inspection.
The official story is that the adoption of computers
didn't show up in productivity figures, but if you looked at
manufacturing, their impact was pervasive. Not every industry
is going to advance at the same time, and improvements that
helped one often lower costs and help others.
If you look at the chart, the big drop in 2000 rivals the
drop in the early 1980s and the similar drop during the most
recent crash. It's like a strong gust of wind knocking down
an old tree trunk. The trunk was rotting and weakening for
years, but it was the wind storm that knocked it down.
Nope. As you say, "the 1990s were a big decade for increased
manufacturing efficiency."
And yet the number of jobs in
manufacturing in the U.S. Actually *increased* slightly. And
the increase was worldwide.
"In November 1999, U.S. Trade Representative Charlene
Barshefsky and Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji made a trade deal
that led to China's admission into the World Trade
Organization (WTO) on November 10, 2001."
Offshoring intensified, according to the official
statistics of the U.S. Trade Representative. Here's the link,
showing that offshoring doubled by 2001:
http://www.trivisonno.com/offshoring
What happened that caused the decline in employment in the
U.S. To be so much more severe than in any other
industrialized country was China.
most reports on Mexican employment aggregate manufacturing
jobs with "industry", which would include oil gas drilling
and construction...i did find one graph that shows a 20%, 5
million job jump in Mexican industrial employment in the
first six years after NAFTA, but they never reached their
prior peak, and i find the rest of the period inconclusive,
not knowing much about Mexican business cycles:
Increases in productivity (technology is a broad term)
likely explain the bulk of the massive decrease in
manufacturing in both the USA and Japan. Furriners certainly
make good scapegoats, however.
"... My feel is nyt don't care for détente and prefers something like the stalemate in central Europe of 1983 ..."
"... 1983 the year I (along with most Germans) realized I could be 'envied by the survivors'. ..."
"... This neocon is really unrepentant Trotskyite hell bent on world neoliberal revolution and the USA world hegemony. Nothing will change such people. ..."
"... In a sense they are real "occupiers" of the USA, the sect that keep the country, and especially its foreign policy, hostage. ..."
"... This represents a continuation of the plan outlined by the neocon think tank known as the Project for a New American Century (PNAC). It was the PNAC that plotted to deceive the US into invading Iraq for the benefit of Israel. (Do some Googling and reading if none of this sounds familiar.) ..."
"... The US government has been making a mess of the world for decades with its overt and covert wars of aggression. Maybe we should insist that "our" government quit dancing to the tune of the special interests who profit from endless war and conflict (the "defense" industry, the Israel lobby, etc.) and try minding our own business in the world for a change? ..."
"... Mc Cain and Portman are of the hillary/nuland/kagan neocon branch of the GOP. Why Jeb! was dumped. Mc Cain just came out for a nearly 50% increase in weapons buying funds! ..."
"... US intelligence officials before the inauguration pandered to Obama about hacking! ..."
In a notorious interview with the Times of London and the
German paper Bild, America's new president, Donald Trump,
opined that NATO is obsolete, that disintegration of the
European Union would make no difference to the United States,
and that he will start off trusting Russian President
Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel equally.
It should come as no surprise that Trump's airing of such
views provoked anxiety on both sides of the Atlantic.
Speaking in his characteristic scattershot style, however,
Trump also said he respected Merkel, he appreciated NATO, and
his trust of either Putin or Merkel could dissipate rapidly.
Thus it was that Trump raised vexing questions about himself.
Is he really in thrall to Putin the war criminal? Does
Trump have some sinister reason for praising Putin as a
strong leader and passing over in silence Putin's propensity
for having meddlesome journalists, dissidents, and turncoat
spooks gunned down or poisoned with potions prepared by his
special services?
Or does Trump's praise of Putin reflect a neophyte's
susceptibility to the views of courtiers such as his
strategic adviser Steve Bannon, promoter of alt-right
nationalism, or national security advisor, Mike Flynn, who
took money from Putin's TV propaganda arm, Russia Today, and
was seated next to Putin at a banquet celebrating the success
of that international enterprise?
To frame the question in a cruder way: Should we look on
Trump as Putin's puppet or merely as a feckless con man from
Queens who is woefully out of his depth on the great stage of
history?
Concern about a suspect relationship between Trump and
Putin's regime cannot be dismissed as pure paranoia - even if
there is no compromising video of Trump cavorting in a Moscow
hotel with sex workers employed by Putin's security services.
The FBI and US intelligence agencies had been looking into
transactions between Trump associates and Putin's people well
before receiving the dossier on Trump's Kremlin ties
assembled by a retired officer of Britain's foreign
intelligence service, MI6.
And there is something yet more worrisome. The Israeli
journalist Ronen Bergman, noted for his exceptional sources
in Israel's intelligence services, reported in the Israeli
paper Yedioth Ahronoth that in a recent meeting between
American and Israeli intelligence officers, the Americans
warned their Israeli counterparts not to disclose sensitive
sources and methods to the Trump White House or security
council. The Israelis were told there is a danger Trump's
people might pass such items to Russia's security services,
and the Russians, wishing to make Iran as dependent on Moscow
as Syria has become, would deliver Israel's most closely
guarded secrets to Iran.
Nevertheless, Trump's ignorance represents a greater danger
than any covert obligation to the Kremlin.
There is, after all, a rational case to be made that
presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush indulged in
geopolitical hubris when, disregarding Russian anxieties
about a vulnerable periphery as well as verbal assurances
originally offered by George H.W. Bush and his secretary of
state, James Baker, they permitted NATO to expand from
Germany's eastern to Russia's western border. At the end of
the Cold War, Russia should have been brought into a Eurasian
partnership with the NATO allies.
Hence it makes sense for a new US president to seek to
resolve dangerous tensions with a nuclear-armed Russia. But
there is no justification for Trump's denigration of NATO and
America's allies.
Someone, perhaps Defense Secretary James Mattis, ought to
explain to Trump what has made Article 5 of the NATO treaty -
the pledge that an attack on one alliance member will be
considered an attack on all - the key to keeping the peace in
Europe. Stalin and his successors understood that Article 5
was an absolute commitment; that once Warsaw Pact troops
marched westward, there would be no parliamentary debates in
Western capitols, no dithering by presidents or prime
ministers; there would be immediate military retaliation.
This has been the secret of Western solidarity and the
primary reason Mattis could say in his confirmation hearing
that NATO might be the most successful military alliance in
history. Success meant never having to use NATO armed forces
in Europe.
When Trump mindlessly hints that he might refuse to defend
NATO allies who don't meet a voluntary pledge to spend 2
percent of their budgets on their militaries, he undermines
Article 5. If he were sitting on Putin's lap and mouthing
words from the Kremlin Godfather, his performance might be
understandable. But if these impulses are his own, they
suggest a perverse worldview that endangers America, its
allies, and world peace.
Angela Merkel's advisers see a chance that Donald Trump's
swipes against the chancellor could work in her favor as she
seeks a fourth term as German leader. ...
Polls suggest most Germans were already put off by the U.S.
president-elect's rhetoric and policy positions even before
his latest volley, published in the country's biggest-selling
Bild newspaper. Though he expressed respect for Merkel as
Europe's pre-eminent leader, Trump laid out stances on the
European Union, NATO and the economy that signal a
fundamental clash with the chancellor's defense of free
trade, open borders and liberal democracy. ...
The rise of ISIS was the direct consequence of the
neocon-controlled US government's attempts at "regime change"
in the Middle East. The CIA and other US government stooges
helped provide arms, training, and funding to rebels in Libya
and Syria in the hope that fueling those civil conflicts
would destabilize the region.
This represents a continuation of the plan outlined by the
neocon think tank known as the Project for a New American
Century (PNAC). It was the PNAC that plotted to deceive the
US into invading Iraq for the benefit of Israel. (Do some
Googling and reading if none of this sounds familiar.)
The situation with ISIS parallels the rise of Al Qaeda in
Afghanistan as a result of covert CIA support for the Islamic
mujahideen in their fight against the Soviet occupiers. Most
Americans are too ignorant to know that Osama Bin Laden and
his comrades were once US allies (just as Saddam Hussein was
a US ally until he ceased to be a cooperative puppet). Here's
a quote from Reagan himself:
"To watch the courageous Afghan freedom fighters battle
modern arsenals with simple hand-held weapons is an
inspiration to those who love freedom."
- U.S. President Ronald Reagan, March 21, 1983
Naturally, those freedom fighters magically turned into
"terrorists" and "cowards" once they started using those
simple hand-held weapons to fight the massive US military
that was invading their land, just as the Soviets had done in
years past.
The US government has been making a mess of the world for
decades with its overt and covert wars of aggression. Maybe
we should insist that "our" government quit dancing to the
tune of the special interests who profit from endless war and
conflict (the "defense" industry, the Israel lobby, etc.) and
try minding our own business in the world for a change?
Mc Cain and Portman are of the hillary/nuland/kagan
neocon branch of the GOP. Why Jeb! was dumped. Mc Cain just
came out for a nearly 50% increase in weapons buying funds!
US intelligence officials before the inauguration
pandered to Obama about hacking!
International Trade Effects of Value-Added Taxation
By Martin Feldstein and Paul Krugman
There is a well-understood economists' case for a value-added tax (VAT). As a consumption tax,
a VAT would not impose the bias against saving that is inherent in income taxation and could therefore
help promote capital formation and economic growth. Against this advantage must be weighed possible
disadvantages resulting from higher administrative costs and greater difficulty in providing an
acceptable degree of progressivity to the overall tax-and-transfer structure as well as the possible
political costs (or benefits, depending on one's point of view) of a tax that is relatively invisible
and thus easy to raise.
Among many businessmen, however, the case for a VAT is often stated quite differently. They
view such a tax as an aid to international competitiveness since VATs are levied on imports but
rebated on exports. The case is often stated as follows: an income tax is paid by producers of
exports but not by foreign producers of the goods we import, while a VAT is paid on imports but
not on exports. Surely, say the proponents of this view, this means that countries that have a
VAT have an advantage in international competition over countries that rely on income taxation.
In fact, this argument is wrong. A VAT is not, contrary to popular belief, anything like a
tariff-cum-export subsidy. Indeed, a VAT is no more an inherently procompetitive trade policy
than a universal sales tax, to which an "idealized" VAT, levied equally on all consumption, is
in fact equivalent. The point that VATs do not inherently affect international trade flows has
been well recognized in the international tax literature. This point is also familiar to tax policy
practitioners; McLure (1987), to take a recent example, dismisses the competitive argument for
a VAT as evident nonsense. Yet the belief that VATs are important determinants of international
competitiveness persists among laymen.
In large part, the belief that VATs are trade-distorting policies reflects a failure on the
part of noneconomists to understand the basic economic arguments. There is also another factor,
however: in reality, VATs will not be neutral in their effect on trade, for at least two reasons.
First, VATs are a substitute for other taxes, especially income taxes, that do affect trade. Second,
in practice, a VAT will not be neutral; concern over distributional issues, as well as administrative
difficulties, inevitably leads to a tax whose rate varies substantially across industries.
To acknowledge that in practice a VAT will indeed affect trade flows is not the same as saying
that the lay view is right. In fact, the widespread view that a VAT enhances the international
competitiveness (in some sense) of the country that adopts it may well be the reverse of the truth.
To the extent that a VAT taxes traded goods more heavily than nontraded, which is normally the
case, a VAT in practice probably tends to reduce rather than increase the size of a country's
traded goods sector. Against this may be set the favorable effect on saving and hence on a country's
trade balance in the short run of substituting a consumption tax for taxes, like the income tax,
that distort intertemporal consumption choices.
The purpose of this paper is to lay out a simple analytical approach for thinking about the
effects of a VAT on international trade. The paper begins by laying out a simple three-good, two-period
model that has the minimal elements necessary to discuss the international trade effects of a
VAT. The first section describes the model and shows how equilibrium is determined in the absence
of taxation. The second section introduces a VAT and demonstrates in the context of our model
the well-known fundamental point that an idealized VAT that is levied on all production is nondistortionary,
in particular having no effect on the allocation of resources between tradable and nontradable
sectors. We can also show that such an idealized VAT would leave nominal factor prices measured
in foreign currency unchanged; this argues, in effect, that even in the short run under fixed
exchange rates a VAT should not be expected to have any effect on trade.
We show next that the absence of distortionary effects from a VAT depends on precisely the
feature that is often alleged to constitute an unfair trade advantage, namely, the rebate of value-added
taxes on exports. In the absence of an export rebate, a VAT would act like an export tax-which
in general equilibrium is equivalent to an import tariff. Thus, the export rebate is necessary
if a VAT is not to be protectionist.
The remainder of the paper is devoted to reasons why in practice the introduction of a VAT
may not be neutral in its trade effects. First, a VAT may substitute for an income tax; since
an income tax is not neutral in its effects, the substitution will have allocative effects, tending,
other things being equal, to improve the trade balance in the short run. Second, and offsetting
this effect in the short run and persisting in the long run, a VAT in practice will tend to be
levied more heavily on traded than on nontraded output and will therefore tend to shift resources
out of the traded goods sectors.
On balance, the substitution of value-added taxation for income taxation is likely to have
an uncertain short-run effect on a nation's net exports but is likely to reduce net exports in
the longer term. This does not constitute an argument either for or against introducing a VAT;
indeed, even if the effect on competitiveness were unambiguous, it is by no means clear what policy
moral ought to be drawn. The point of this analysis is more modest; we want to show that the common
belief that a VAT is a kind of disguised protectionist policy is based on a misunderstanding....
It drives me nuts to see opening premise statements that invoke this notion of savings and capital
formation as leading to something called investments, and this is the rationale for why we skew
policy toward encouraging more of everything in the sentence.
First off, the financial crisis clearly revealed that the financial community creates investment
monies via its privilege to create credit and lending accounts.
It is sophistry, in my view, to premise public policy discussions with this stupid, non-real
world ideology about why we need tax and other economic policies that favor capital formation
when this privilege exists in its unregulated mode (well, since the crisis more supervision has
come and common sense has come back to this privileged community, of course until the Admin signals
a laissez faire on this privilege again, leading to places I dont want to go, again).
So I said, first, above. So the second related point is about how economists seem to not understand
how the statistical program under NIPA is a looking backward program using definitions, like identities
(such as the defined one where Savings equals Investment) to bring cloture to the stat program,
and that is what it surely does - but its structure as a statistical program must be used with
great caution when you look forward and talk about how the economy actually works.
As for the VAT rationales, if they start with these premises they will clearly end with the
conclusion that is built in, that the taxing of the incidence of buying/selling, consumption,
is not just ok, but that it is better because the application of the tax is not on Savings or
on Investment. It places the burdens on consumption, do not believe this sophistry, it is a shift
in revenue raising system design away from wealth and high incomes, shifting the burdens on to
basic consumption where all of us live.
Krugman is helping to justify this shift. He should be wailing in opposition to such a shift
(especially in light of a clear memory about how tax grants of huge magnitude were already given
to the highly mobile people of wealth and high income).
I agree. Touting increasing savings as good thing as a means of increasing investment is the wrong
idea. Especially when economic recessions are mostly due to falling consumption demand caused
by a desire to increase savings. This is Keynes' paradox of thrift.
"... "Both sides demonstrated a mood for active, joint work on stabilizing and developing Russian-American cooperation," the Kremlin said in a statement, saying Putin and Trump had agreed to work on finding a possible time and place for a meeting. ..."
"... The Kremlin said the US President asked his Russian counterpart "to wish the Russian people happiness and prosperity" on his behalf, adding Americans "have warm feelings towards Russia and its citizens." Putin said the feeling was "mutual," stressing that historically, the Russians and the Americans were close allies on more than one occasion. ..."
"... Putin said "for over two centuries Russia has supported the United States, was its ally during the two world wars, and now sees the United States as a major partner in fighting international terrorism." ..."
"... Moscow, for its part, has repeatedly suggested fostering closer cooperation between the Russian and US Air Forces in Syria, but blamed the previous Obama administration for failing to adequately respond to its entreaties. Relations between the two countries have been marred in recent years over various issues, including divisions on the Syrian crisis and allegations of Russian meddling into the US elections in November of 2016. US sanctions against Russia - imposed over the crisis in Ukraine - was one of the issues expected to be on the agenda of the Trump-Putin exchange. However, the issue was not mentioned in the Kremlin's statement summarizing the conversation. ..."
"... Russia has been cautious about the prospects for a potential "reset" with the US under the new administration. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said the country has no "naive expectations" and is under no "illusions." ..."
Putin, Trump, in 'Positive' Call, Say
Want to
Cooperate in Syria: Kremlin
https://nyti.ms/2jIzuKa
NYT - REUTERS - January 28, 2017
MOSCOW - Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald
Trump said in a "positive" phone call on Saturday they favored their two countries cooperating in
Syria to defeat Islamic State, the Kremlin said in a statement.
In an eagerly awaited phone call, the first since Trump's inauguration, the two men stressed the
importance of restoring economic ties between the two countries and of stabilizing relations, the
Kremlin said.
U.S.-Russia relations had hit a post-Cold War low under Barack Obama and Trump has made clear
he wants a rapprochement with Moscow if he can get along with Putin.
"Both sides demonstrated a mood for active, joint work on stabilizing and developing Russian-American
cooperation," the Kremlin said in a statement, saying Putin and Trump had agreed to work on finding
a possible time and place for a meeting.
There was no mention in the statement that the possibility of Trump easing sanctions on Moscow
imposed over the Ukraine conflict had been mentioned, a subject widely expected to be raised.
The Kremlin said Trump and Putin had agreed to establish "partner-like cooperation" when it came
to global issues such as Ukraine, Iran's nuclear program, tensions on the Korean peninsula and the
Israeli-Arab conflict.
Trump's stance on Russia has been under intense scrutiny from critics who say he was elected with
help from Russian intelligence, an allegation he denies. His detractors have also accused him of
being too eager to make an ally of Putin.
For Putin, an easing of Western sanctions would be a major coup ahead of next year's presidential
election as it would help the economy recover.
In their first phone conversation that lasted nearly an
hour, Russian President Vladimir Putin and the new US
President Donald Trump have outlined their intent to
cooperate on issues ranging from defeating Islamic State to
mending bilateral economic ties.
"Both sides expressed their readiness to make active joint
efforts to stabilize and develop Russia-US cooperation on a
constructive, equitable and mutually beneficial basis," as
well as "build up partner cooperation" on a wide range of
international issues, according to a Kremlin statement
following their discussion.
The White House said that the "positive" conversation was
"a significant start to improving the relationship between
the United States and Russia that is in need of repair."
"Both President Trump and President Putin are hopeful that
after today's call the two sides can move quickly to tackle
terrorism and other important issues of mutual concern," the
White House statement added.
After speaking with Chancellor Merkel for 45 minutes
@POTUS is now onto his 3rd of 5 head of government calls,
speaking w Russian Pres Putin pic.twitter.com/RPAWIgcO2C
- Sean Spicer (@PressSec) January 28, 2017Q
"The Presidents have spoken in favor of establishing a
real coordination between the US and Russian actions in order
to defeat ISIS and other terrorist organizations in Syria,"
the Kremlin statement said.
The two leaders also discussed the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict as well as Iran's nuclear program. "Major aspects of
the Ukrainian crisis have been also touched upon," the
Kremlin announced.
The leaders of Russia and the US have noted a need to
restore economic ties "to stimulate" further development of
the relationship between the nations. Putin and Trump also
agreed to initiate a process to "work out possible dates and
venue of their personal meeting."
Telephone conversation with US President Donald Trump
https://t.co/mjp9Tta1sE
- President of Russia (@KremlinRussia_E) 28 января 2017 г.Q
During the conversation the Presidents also expressed their
desire to "maintain regular personal contacts," the Kremlin
statement said.
The Kremlin said the US President asked his Russian
counterpart "to wish the Russian people happiness and
prosperity" on his behalf, adding Americans "have warm
feelings towards Russia and its citizens." Putin said the
feeling was "mutual," stressing that historically, the
Russians and the Americans were close allies on more than one
occasion.
Putin said "for over two centuries Russia has supported
the United States, was its ally during the two world wars,
and now sees the United States as a major partner in fighting
international terrorism."
On Friday, speaking at a joint briefing with British Prime
Minister Theresa May, Trump said he hoped he would have a
"fantastic relationship" with Russia's president, but
understands that might not happen. Trump has said previously
that he would welcome Moscow's involvement in a joint effort
to battle Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS/ISIL).
"I don't know Putin, but if we can get along with
Russia that's a great thing. It's good for Russia; it's
good for us; we go out together and knock the hell out of
ISIS, because that's a real sickness," he said in an
interview with Fox News.
Moscow, for its part, has repeatedly suggested fostering
closer cooperation between the Russian and US Air Forces in
Syria, but blamed the previous Obama administration for
failing to adequately respond to its entreaties. Relations
between the two countries have been marred in recent years
over various issues, including divisions on the Syrian crisis
and allegations of Russian meddling into the US elections in
November of 2016. US sanctions against Russia - imposed over
the crisis in Ukraine - was one of the issues expected to be
on the agenda of the Trump-Putin exchange. However, the issue
was not mentioned in the Kremlin's statement summarizing the
conversation.
Citing an unnamed source in the White House, a researcher
at the Atlantic Council analytical center, Fabrice Pothier,
wrote in a Twitter post on Thursday that the Trump
administration "has an executive order ready" to lift the
restrictions on Moscow, but Trump said on Friday that it is
"very early to be talking about that."
However, earlier in January, Trump said that he would
consider lifting restrictions if Moscow cooperates with
Washington on certain issues, such as nuclear arms reduction.
"They have sanctions on Russia - let's see if we can make
some good deals with Russia. For one thing, I think nuclear
weapons should be way down and reduced very substantially,
that's part of it," Trump was quoted as saying by the Times.
Trump also said in one of his Tweets that "having a good
relationship with Russia is a good thing, not a bad thing,"
warning only "fools" would think otherwise. However, several
US Senators proposed a bill last week that would make it
impossible for the US President to lift restrictions without
congressional approval.
Russia has been cautious about the prospects for a
potential "reset" with the US under the new administration.
Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said the country has no
"naive expectations" and is under no "illusions."
"... Yes the interesting difference between Trump and classic GOPsters is that they always have been careful with the language they use. They will say something that (to the average american) sounds like a promise of one thing but in reality doesn't actually promise that thing. ..."
"... So classic GOPsters try to hide "trickle down economics" under a layer of Doublespeak... ..."
Yes the interesting difference between Trump and classic
GOPsters is that they always have been careful with the
language they use. They will say something that (to the
average american) sounds like a promise of one thing but in
reality doesn't actually promise that thing. When they fail
to deliver, they can defend themselves as having not lied (or
failed on their promises). Trump is a condo salesman, he will
say whatever it takes to get the contract signed, the fact
that he lied is no big deal because by the time the marks
find out, he has gotten all their money.
Well if Trump is just a plain ole Republican then the
Republicans have nothing to worry about.
Republicans have
been about trickle down economics. No government involvement.
In fact deregulation. Tax cuts for the rich period.
Trump is talking about the government involved. In
currency policy. In infrastructure. In his rhetoric. We'll
see what happens when the tire hits the road.
"... Loss of one business is OK, two -- the same. But at some point quantity turns into quality and you get entirely new situation. Point of no return. ..."
"... If too many business close you not only lose the whole sector and but you suffer additional loses from the destruction of vertically integrated suppliers. You might lose the whole chain. ..."
"... And your "more technologically advanced facilities" will close too. I saw such a chain of event in chemical industry. And then you will get polluted ingredients from China and lose your customers to Germany. ..."
"... Looks like you do not understand the complexity of of manufacturing chains and thinking in very simplistic terms. ..."
"... And remember that your "high technological sector" is not immune. IT can be and is outsourced to India. Computers for Dell are now assembled in Taiwan. Gradually the design will move too as the best design is when you are close to production facility and understand complex processes involved in production. ..."
The problem is that you don't have the ability to compare what would have happened without NAFTA.
There is no doubt that the pain is real in those communities that saw their factory shut down
and the product being produced in Mexico instead. But would that factory have been shut down anyway
if NAFTA had not been? We know that a lot of manufacturing related to cars moved from the north
to the south within US - and from solid middle class salaries to $10-14/hour. Efficiencies and
hunts for lower cost would have continued regardless of NAFTA. So even though we know some effects
are real we don't know how much they count in the bigger picture of change.
Good point
Carrier will keep jobs here (for now) Will automate later
Try this scenario:
American businesses under pressure from shareholders and corporate raiders underinvest in their
manufacturing facilities and milk the profits. Meanwhile, new more productive competitors are
built incorporating technological advances many of them in developing countries that have strong
growth.
Recession hits and the least competitive businesses close. Those are primarily the rust belt
dinosaurs. After the recession ends, it is more competitive to increase production at more technologically
advanced facilities than to try to restart the dinosaurs. There is net loss of jobs to foreign
competition but much is due to misguided industrial and tax policy, not trade deals.
"Recession hits and the least competitive businesses close. Those are primarily the rust belt
dinosaurs. After the recession ends, it is more competitive to increase production at more
technologically advanced facilities than to try to restart the dinosaurs. There is net loss
of jobs to foreign competition but much is due to misguided industrial and tax policy, not
trade deals."
That't pure neoliberal baloney. Free market propaganda.
Loss of one business is OK, two -- the same. But at some point quantity turns into quality
and you get entirely new situation. Point of no return.
If too many business close you not only lose the whole sector and but you suffer additional
loses from the destruction of vertically integrated suppliers. You might lose the whole chain.
And your "more technologically advanced facilities" will close too. I saw such a chain
of event in chemical industry. And then you will get polluted ingredients from China and lose
your customers to Germany.
Looks like you do not understand the complexity of of manufacturing chains and thinking
in very simplistic terms.
And remember that your "high technological sector" is not immune. IT can be and is outsourced
to India. Computers for Dell are now assembled in Taiwan. Gradually the design will move too as
the best design is when you are close to production facility and understand complex processes
involved in production.
There was recently a story how Intel lost serious money just trying to move the process from
one place to another.
Another factor that outsourcing of manufacturing radically changes the balance of power between
the capital and the labor. It helped to decimate the power of organized labor, which was the explicit
goal of neoliberalism: atomization of labor force and conversion of them into autonomous "self-enhancing"
(via education and training at your own expense) units, competing with each other in the (pretty
unfair) "labor market".
It's simply amazing how many factors played in hand for neoliberal coup d'état of 1980th: computer
revolution, Internet and related communication revolution, financialization ( 401(k) plans were
enacted into law in 1978), dissolution of the USSR, outsourcing and related decimation on trade
unions power. And then came Clinton and officially buried the New Deal.
"... "[T]he decline in manufacturing employment ... is driven mainly by the secular trend of labor-saving technological progress." At this point I call nonsense. Until somebody shows me the "technological progress" that hit precisely like a tsunami in the year 2000, The argument made by DeLong and Rodrick is nonsense. I already debunked the "but, Germany!" Argument the other day, so don't even try that. ..."
"... The U.S. went from 30% of its nonfarm employees in manufacturing to 12% because of rapid growth in manufacturing productivity and limited demand, yes? The U.S. went from 12% to 9% because of stupid and destructive macro policies--the Reagan deficits, the strong-dollar policy pushed well past its sell-by date, too-tight monetary policy--that diverted it from its proper role as a net exporter of capital and finance to economies that need to be net sinks rather than net sources of the global flow of funds for investment, yes? The U.S. went from 9% to 8.7% because of the extraordinarily rapid rise of China, yes? The U.S. went from 8.7% to 8.6% because of NAFTA, yes? ..."
"... And yet the American political system right now is blaming all, 100%, every piece of that decline from 30% to 8.6% and every problem that can be laid its door on brown people from Mexico. ..."
"... Sanders addressed the issue too and for that he's insulted by the likes of Sanjait and other progressive neoliberals. ..."
What did NAFTA really do? : Brad De Long has written a
lengthy essay that defends NAFTA (and other trade deals) from the charge that they are responsible
for the loss of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. I agree with much that he says – in particular
with the points that the decline in manufacturing employment has been a long-term process that
predates NAFTA and the China shock and that it is driven mainly by the secular trend of labor-saving
technological progress. There is no way you can hold NAFTA responsible for employment de-industrialization
in the U.S. or expect that a "better" deal with Mexico will bring those jobs back.
At the same time, the essay leaves me frustrated and uneasy. It seems to gloss over the distributional
pain of NAFTA and overstate the overall gains.
So what does the evidence say on these issues? ...
A recently published academic study by Lorenzo Caliendo and Fernando Parro uses all the bells-and-whistles
of modern trade theory to produce the estimate that these overall gains amount to a "welfare"
gain of 0.08% for the U.S. That is, eight-hundredth of 1 percent! ... Trade volume impacts were
much larger: a doubling of U.S. imports from Mexico.
What is equally interesting is that fully half of the miniscule 0.08% gain for US is not an
efficiency gain, but actually a benefit due to terms-of-trade improvement. That is, Caliendo and
Parro estimate that the world prices of what the U.S. imports fell relative to what it exports.
These are not efficiency gains, but income transfers from other countries (here principally Mexico
and Canada). These gains came at the expense of other countries.
A gain, no matter how small, is still a gain. What about the distributional impacts?
The most detailed empirical analysis of the labor-market effects of NAFTA is contained in a
paper by John McLaren and Shushanik Hakobyan. They find that the aggregate effects were rather
small (in line with other work), but that impacts on directly affected communities were quite
severe. It is worth quoting John McLaren at length, from an
interview : ...
In other words, those high school dropouts who worked in industries protected by tariffs prior
to NAFTA experienced reductions in wage growth by as much as 17 percentage points relative to
wage growth in unaffected industries. I don't think anyone can argue that a 17 percentage drop
is small. As McLaren and Hakobyan emphasize, these losses were then propagated throughout the
localities in which these workers lived.
So here is the overall picture that these academic studies paint for the U.S.: NAFTA produced
large changes in trade volumes, tiny efficiency gains overall, and some very significant impacts
on adversely affected communities.
The consequences of NAFTA for Mexico are another topic which would require a separate post.
Let me just say that the great expectations the country's policy makers had for NAFTA
have not been fulfilled . ...
So is Trump deluded on NAFTA's overall impact on manufacturing jobs? Absolutely, yes.
Was he able to capitalize on the very real losses that this and other trade agreements produced
in certain parts of the country in a way that Democrats were unable to? Again, yes.
Tell me something! Who was the biggest friend NRA ever garnered?
44th President? When weapons industry was under Democratic threat of gun control did you see
lot and lot of folks rushing down to the firearms dealer for a final purchase of their favourite
hardware?
Same thing with the wall-around-USA? Under threat, consumers are now buying up all the running-shoes
in China and considering the purchase of all the tea in China-cups.
Even the wholesalers are filling their warehouse with new products from Pacific avenue in hopes
of avoiding the import duty about to befall us. Is that why all the consumer non-cyclical stocks
have shown such a splendid performance? From the expected profit on warehoused products that avoided
the new tariff If, will same trend boost same equities until the rumour becomes yesterday's news?
"[T]he decline in manufacturing employment ... is driven mainly by the secular trend of labor-saving
technological progress." At this point I call nonsense. Until somebody shows me the "technological
progress" that hit precisely like a tsunami in the year 2000, The argument made by DeLong and
Rodrick is nonsense. I already debunked the "but, Germany!" Argument the other day, so don't even
try that.
Let's try again with this fact: "the decline in manufacturing employment has been a long-term
process that predates NAFTA and the China shock". Did manufacturing employment peak exactly in
2000?
It seems manufacturing peaked during the Carter years. And then came Reagan and his toxic macroeconomic
mix which led to a massive dollar appreciation. What Krugman just wrote.
Good point. Manufacturing employment fell when Reagan came into power and it fell again after
2000. I guess the NAFTA bashers have some weird lag and lead model.
Yep. A new President Bush looking backward from the early '00s probably said, "Man, technology
is wreaking havoc on the working man. If this continues it's going to be real bad."
No, let's try again with THIS fact: manufacturing employment fell 12% during the 1980-82 recesions,
then remained stable until 2000.
Then it fell by over 30% in 10 years.
Please tell me exactly what technology improvement washed over manufacturing employment *precisely*
in the year 2000 to make it fall off a cliff exactly then? Oh and by the way, during that decade
the US$ declined in value on a trade weighted basis.
And while I am at it, Japan, Canada, France and Italy had far smaller % declines than the U.S.
C.mon, tell me what happened in the year 2000 that has made the decline in U.S. manufacturing
employment such a big outlier since then. Surely the free trade apologists here can name the productivity
improvement in the year 2000. What was it?
using the 2000 bubble is some nice cherry picking. if ones chooses the two previous recessions
the trends are very similar. there was also a distinct change in the slope of productivity per
hour starting in the late 80s so i think this is a more appropriate starting point
The U.S. Was not the only country that had a recession in 2001. Why the collapse *only* in the
U.S.?
I will move on when people admit that collapse was not due to an overnight spike in productivity.
We have double the loss of nearly any other industrialised country.
Was there possibly something else that happened in the year 2000?
ironically, i'm probably more opposed to so-called "free trade" deals than NDD. i've been gassed,
shot at, and even voted for perot despite his *repugnant* social conservatism. imo, the decimation
of labor rights and deregulation were major contributors to the ratification of trade agreements
that harmed working class people while benefiting the rich. i also believe the irrational black-white
position of many sanders social democrats on trade only helps trumpists promote america first
nationalism. union-busters, deregulators, and "job-creating" CEOs should not get a get-out-of-jail-free
card!
The percentage of employees working in manufacturing in the US fell in a long surprisingly straight
line from the late 1960s. The big drop in employee count in 2000 was a result of the collapse
of the dot-com boom. There has been a long, steady downward pressure on manufacturing jobs, but
we see big drops in their absolute numbers in just about every recession.
I do know that the 1990s were a big decade for increased manufacturing efficiency. Supercomputers
and micro-controllers changed the way we designed and built cars, cans and washing machines, for
example. I know Silicon Valley was rapidly changing the way computers were assembled as design
rules made chip design easier and new techniques made chip placement and connection simpler. Does
anyone even use a wire wrap gun anymore? There was also the impact of the Japanese challenge of
the 1980s which made manufacturers rethink their supply chain and encouraging robotics and continuous
inspection.
The official story is that the adoption of computers didn't show up in productivity figures,
but if you looked at manufacturing, their impact was pervasive. Not every industry is going to
advance at the same time, and improvements that helped one often lower costs and help others.
If you look at the chart, the big drop in 2000 rivals the drop in the early 1980s and the similar
drop during the most recent crash. It's like a strong gust of wind knocking down an old tree trunk.
The trunk was rotting and weakening for years, but it was the wind storm that knocked it down.
Nope. As you say, "the 1990s were a big decade for increased manufacturing efficiency."
And yet the number of jobs in manufacturing in the U.S. Actually *increased* slightly. And
the increase was worldwide.
"In November 1999, U.S. Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky and Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji
made a trade deal that led to China's admission into the World Trade Organization (WTO) on November
10, 2001."
Offshoring intensified, according to the official statistics of the U.S. Trade Representative.
Here's the link, showing that offshoring doubled by 2001:
http://www.trivisonno.com/offshoring
What happened that caused the decline in employment in the U.S. To be so much more severe than
in any other industrialized country was China.
Increases in productivity (technology is a broad term) likely explain the bulk of the massive
decrease in manufacturing in both the USA and Japan. Furriners certainly make good scapegoats,
however.
"So here is the overall picture that these academic studies paint for the U.S.: NAFTA produced
large changes in trade volumes, tiny efficiency gains overall, and some very significant impacts
on adversely affected communities."
Yes the free trade cheerleaders always miss the distributional impacts. But I do remember a
few international economists when NAFTA first passed saying the efficiency gains would be only
modest. I guess they were not heard over the cheerleading.
But one should also note that shot across the bow of Team Trump that Dani took. As always -
one of the best on the issue of globalization.
Technological advances also have uneven distributional pain
Job losses to strong dollar policy have uneven distributional pain
Trump tells the lie that better Trade agreements will fix the distributional pain.
It won't because trade agreements only create a small fraction of that pain.
The elephant in the room is Technological advances. It is unwise and undesirable to fight progress
(as in Luddite)
The question obscured by scapegoating NAFTA is what policies will address dislocation? Clinton
proposed shifting dislocated miners to clean energy jobs. Dislocated miners rejected that idea
in favor of an empty promise to return mining jobs. The conversation will return to square one,
"What policies will address dislocation?" only after Trump trade policy upheaval fails because
it addresses the wrong problem
I'm not a Luddite but we could and should address those distributional consequences that you properly
note. And you are spot on - Trump is creating more dislocations with his stupid bluster.
I agree. The march of technology is responsible for the productivity gains, and those gains led
to the majority of the job losses.
But it is an economic argument that simply will not win elections when we say "only 5% of the
folks lost their jobs in manufacturing due to trade, so our recommended trade policy to you, the
American people, is to keep doing what we have been doing for the last 25 years, because it only
substantially harms a small number of Americans."
To the extent Americans vote based on trade considerations in the first place (which is unclear
to me), to win elections we need to be proposing plans for trade surpluses or balanced trade.
(My preference is to seek balanced trade.).
This is why I have been beating a drum about the Buffett plan
http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/growing.pdf
trying to get you smart folks here to critique it and try to get some energy behind it, in
my own small (and ineffective way).
It is kind of hard to talk about a 13 year old plan when the updated numbers for today are much
more in favor of US. Today, if we just balanced our trade with China we would no longer have a
trade deficit.
This is a fair point. But it could be that 10 years from now we have some other cause of concern.
I seem to recall in the late 80's the concern was Japan taking over and a huge trade deficit with
Japan. That concern has receded but now the lion's share of the imbalance is with China. Can we
fix it once and for all? Also, what sort of policy proposals should people get behind that are
(A) winners politically/ help win elections, (B) economically sound, and (C) good for US workers
/ reduce inequality?
It would be great if some small group of smart folks like those who comment here could develop
such a policy prescription in the coming months by arguing and discussing amongst ourselves. If
we could do that then we could try to infect some unsuspecting politicians with the ideas, and
who knows, maybe in 4 years it could make a difference for our world.
The trade deficit is actually not that important nor is manufacturing. We are moving towards a
"Star Trek" like future where food and things can be delivered on demand without people having
to do anything. If we continue to want people to acquire those things using money, we have to
find ways to provide people with money. The reason we provide people with money via a job is that
we think there is a societal value to connecting work with getting money (to acquire stuff). I
am not sure how we can get out of that primitive mindset of "deserving" and spend our time on
something more meaningful.
"So is Trump deluded on NAFTA's overall impact on manufacturing jobs? Absolutely, yes. Was
he able to capitalize on the very real losses that this and other trade agreements produced in
certain parts of the country in a way that Democrats were unable to? Again, yes."
I guess Trump is not going to invite Dani to work for his CEA. Which is a loss for the nation.
"[H]igh school dropouts who worked in industries protected by tariffs prior to NAFTA experienced
reductions in wage growth by as much as 17 percentage points relative to wage growth in unaffected
industries."
And those high school drop outs all voted for Trump. So the bottom line is that high school
drop outs rule the nation because the rest of us don't vote as a bloc.
The problem is that you don't have the ability to compare what would have happened without NAFTA.
There is no doubt that the pain is real in those communities that saw their factory shut down
and the product being produced in Mexico instead. But would that factory have been shut down anyway
if NAFTA had not been? We know that a lot of manufacturing related to cars moved from the north
to the south within US - and from solid middle class salaries to $10-14/hour. Efficiencies and
hunts for lower cost would have continued regardless of NAFTA. So even though we know some effects
are real we don't know how much they count in the bigger picture of change.
Good point
Carrier will keep jobs here (for now) Will automate later
Try this scenario:
American businesses under pressure from shareholders and corporate raiders underinvest in their
manufacturing facilities and milk the profits. Meanwhile, new more productive competitors are
built incorporating technological advances many of them in developing countries that have strong
growth.
Recession hits and the least competitive businesses close. Those are primarily the rust belt
dinosaurs. After the recession ends, it is more competitive to increase production at more technologically
advanced facilities than to try to restart the dinosaurs. There is net loss of jobs to foreign
competition but much is due to misguided industrial and tax policy, not trade deals.
While he is generally right, this is rather disingenuous, since offshoring jobs started long before
NAFTA. It began with the maquiladora system in Mexico and by the 1990s had largely shifted to
SE Asia (anybody remember the Asian Tigers?). Even many maquiladoras relocated there. By the late
1990s, when NAFTA was signed, most of those jobs had already gone. As I keep saying, you need
to look at the details and not just the aggregates. Most the labor intensive industries relocated
to low wag/benefit countries with no labor or environmental protections before NAFTA, leaving
only those most amenable to automation. Blaming automation only works if you ignore the first
part.
The maquiladora system did start well before NAFTA. But note China has taken business away from
those maquiladoras. Putting that 20% border tax on Mexico that Trump wants means more business
for Asia.
I remember studying a prototype computer at an MIT lab in the mid-1980s. All of the chips (mainly
7400 series) were marked with Central American country names. One guy joked that he was glad we
had the contras fighting against freedom down there so we didn't have to worry about our supply
of 7404s.
What productivity increase hit like a tsunami in the U.S. and only the U.S. Precisely in the year
2000? Not in 1999 or any other year in the 1990s, but starting precisely in the year 2000.
If you can't name it, the thick skull is not mine.
"Hey look, there Dani Rodrik saying exactly what I've been saying for a while."
LOL no he's not!!!
"At the same time, the essay leaves me frustrated and uneasy. It seems to gloss over the distributional
pain of NAFTA and overstate the overall gains."
"Was he able to capitalize on the very real losses that this and other trade agreements produced
in certain parts of the country in a way that Democrats were unable to? Again, yes."
I don't want to cause more fights, and also I don't want to be the target of ridicule, but...
what is it that Dani Rodrick is saying that agrees with what you've said? I am not disputing you,
just asking for clarification, as he says several things here.
The consequences of NAFTA for Mexico are another topic which would require a separate post. Let
me just say that the great expectations the country's policy makers had for NAFTA have not been
fulfilled....
Between 1992 and 2015, real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Mexico increased slower than
in any country in Central America, any country in south America save for unfortunate Venezuela
and slower than in Canada or the United States.
Between 1992 and 2014, total factor productivity for Mexico actually decreased. Mexico fared
more poorly in productivity than in any country for which there are records in Central America,
any country in South America other than Venezuela and more poorly than in Canada or the US.
Between 1992 and 2015, real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Mexico increased slower than
in any country in Central America, any country in South America save for unfortunate Venezuela
and slower than in Canada or the United States.
Between 1992 and 2014, total factor productivity for Mexico actually decreased. Mexico fared
more poorly in productivity than in any country for which there are records in Central America,
any country in South America other than Venezuela and more poorly than in Canada or the US.
Between 1992 and 2015, real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Mexico increased slower than
in the Dominican Republic or Trinidad. Jamaica however grew more slowly.
Between 1992 and 2013, the last year for which there are records, real per capita Gross Domestic
Product for Mexico increased slower than in Puerto Rico or Cuba, despite the US embargo of trade
with Cuba.
Between 1992 and 2015, real per capita Gross Domestic Product for Mexico increased slower than
in language related Spain, Portugal, Angola or the Philippines.
Anne - Google processed trade. A big deal in China. And exactly what maquiladoras are. Yes they
do compete. And workers in these sectors are making around $3 an hour regardless of nation.
Google processed trade. A big deal in China. And exactly what maquiladoras are. Yes they do compete.
And workers in these sectors are making around $3 an hour regardless of nation.
Trump wants border taxes aka tariffs. Paul Ryan wants the Destination Based Cash Flow Tax aka
border adjustments. If Trump does not know they are different, his advisers are lying to him.
Of course I am no fan of that border adjustments idea Speaker Ryan is pushing. But that is a much
deeper conversation. Let's just say - Ryan is lying every time the weasel smiles.
Trump wants border taxes aka tariffs. Paul Ryan wants the Destination Based Cash Flow Tax aka
border adjustments....
[ I am only interested in understanding the difference between a tariff and a destination tax
and who pays each. The point is to understand each of the 2 possibilities and who will pay in
each case. Tariffs are paid by consumers. Who will pay a destination tax?
Yes I am sure they understand that this will reduce the value of the peso at least by 20% so in
the end US will end up paying for the wall and then some. It is just that low information voters
and low information Presidents will think we made Mexico pay for it.
"At the same time, [DeLong's] essay leaves me frustrated and uneasy. It seems to gloss over
the distributional pain of NAFTA and overstate the overall gains."
He's a neoliberal like PGL and Sanjait.
They don't care about the distributional pain. They're hacks defending hack centrist politicians.
The distributional pain helped elect Trump and the neoliberals can't admit it.
"At the same time, [DeLong's] essay leaves me frustrated and uneasy. It seems to gloss over the
distributional pain of NAFTA and overstate the overall gains."
Rodrik could have substituted PGL or Krugman for DeLong.
"The distributional pain helped elect Trump and the neoliberals can't admit it."
Distributional pain aka the Stopler Samuelson theorem. I talk about this often. Krugman does
too. But then this requires a little bit of analytical ability which serial idiots like you don't
do. Rage on - troll.
All you and Krugman do is mock Bernie Sanders and his supporters, people who would actually
do something about the distributional pain Rodrik talks about.
Rodrik:
"At the same time, [DeLong's] essay leaves me frustrated and uneasy. It seems to gloss over
the distributional pain of NAFTA and overstate the overall gains."
Just like PGL and Krugman. That's why neoliberal Hillary lost. It's why Trump won. And the
neoliberals still won't admit it.
In short, it's complicated – not all bad, by any means, but not the pure uprising of idealists
the more enthusiastic supporters imagine.
The political scientists Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels have an illuminating discussion
of Sanders support. The key graf that will probably have Berniebros boiling is this:
Yet commentators who have been ready and willing to attribute Donald Trump's success to anger,
authoritarianism, or racism rather than policy issues have taken little note of the extent to
which Mr. Sanders's support is concentrated not among liberal ideologues but among disaffected
white men.
The point is not to demonize, but, if you like, to de-angelize. Like any political movement
(including the Democratic Party, which is, yes, a coalition of interest groups) Sandersism has
been an assemblage of people with a variety of motives, not all of them pretty. Here's a short
list based on my own encounters:
1.Genuine idealists: For sure, quite a few Sanders supporters dream of a better society, and
for whatever reason – maybe just because they're very young – are ready to dismiss practical arguments
about why all their dreams can't be accomplished in a day.
2.Romantics: This kind of idealism shades over into something that's less about changing society
than about the fun and ego gratification of being part of The Movement. (Those of us who were
students in the 60s and early 70s very much recognize the type.) For a while there – especially
for those who didn't understand delegate math – it felt like a wonderful joy ride, the scrappy
young on the march about to overthrow the villainous old. But there's a thin line between love
and hate: when reality began to set in, all too many romantics reacted by descending into bitterness,
with angry claims that they were being cheated.
3.Purists: A somewhat different strand in the movement, also familiar to those of us of a certain
age, consists of those for whom political activism is less about achieving things and more about
striking a personal pose. They are the pure, the unsullied, who reject the corruptions of this
world and all those even slightly tainted – which means anyone who actually has gotten anything
done. Quite a few Sanders surrogates were Naderites in 2000; the results of that venture don't
bother them, because it was never really about results, only about affirming personal identity.
4.CDS victims: Quite a few Sanders supporters are mainly Clinton-haters, deep in the grip of
Clinton Derangement Syndrome; they know that Hillary is corrupt and evil, because that's what
they hear all the time; they don't realize that the reason it's what they hear all the time is
that right-wing billionaires have spent more than two decades promoting that message. Sanders
has gotten a number of votes from conservative Democrats who are voting against her, not for him,
and for sure there are liberal supporters who have absorbed the same message, even if they don't
watch Fox News.
5.Salon des Refuses: This is a small group in number, but accounts for a lot of the pro-Sanders
commentary, and is of course something I see a lot. What I'm talking about here are policy intellectuals
who have for whatever reason been excluded from the inner circles of the Democratic establishment,
and saw Sanders as their ticket to the big time. They typically hold heterodox views, but those
views don't have much to do with the campaign – sorry, capital theory disputes from half a century
ago aren't relevant to the debate over health reform. What matters is their outsider status, which
gives them an interest in backing an outsider candidate – and makes them reluctant to accept it
when that candidate is no longer helping the progressive cause.
So how will this coalition of the not-always disinterested break once it's over? The genuine
idealists will probably realize that whatever their dreams, Trump would be a nightmare. Purists
and CDSers won't back Clinton, but they were never going to anyway. My guess is that disgruntled
policy intellectuals will, in the end, generally back Clinton.
The question, as I see it, involves the romantics. How many will give in to their bitterness?
A lot may depend on Sanders – and whether he himself is one of those embittered romantics, unable
to move on.
I guess I am a little confused by the way this article is laid out. The article says the overall
picture is Large trade volume change, little gain (insignificant gain) and large wage drop for
poor.
Meaning, trade has increased but it has little efficiency gain on the economy and it mainly
just depressed wages for the poor in the US. So, am I missing something here?
I thought the whole point of free trade was to lower tariffs/quotas/taxes to allow for each
country to specialize based off their advantages/cost...resulting in a lower price in the international
market. This lower price would then result in benefiting everyone that has to buy that product
ie cars. So, even though you lost your job in automobiles to Mexico you would be able to buy a
new car much cheaper because labor cost is extremely cheap in Mexico. The end result would be
short term unemployment rise but given you could find another job the medium/long run unemployment
would be in equilibrium. Thus, everyone in the medium/long run are better off because of free
trade.
Does the term, "tiny efficiency gains" mean that jobs went to mexico because it was cheaper
labor/regulations and in turn the final product came back to the U.S. virtually the same price
as it was before NAFTA? If that is the case it would make sense to scrap NAFTA.
My understanding is that the benefit of NAFTA or any free trade agreement is essentially going
to be lower cost. This is because inefficient companies or rich countries like U.S. have high
living wage causing the final product to cost more and its all protected from international prices
with quotas/tariffs/import taxes. Thats not to neglect the wage drop in the US due to free trade,
but the argument is that cheaper products is far superior than a small amount of job loss/wage
drop.
I thought the whole point of free trade was to lower tariffs/quotas/taxes to allow for each country
to specialize based off their advantages/cost...resulting in a lower price in the international
market. This lower price would then result in benefiting everyone that has to buy that product
ie cars. So, even though you lost your job in automobiles to Mexico you would be able to buy a
new car much cheaper because labor cost is extremely cheap in Mexico. The end result would be
short term unemployment rise but given you could find another job the medium/long run unemployment
would be in equilibrium. Thus, everyone in the medium/long run are better off because of free
trade....
[ I need to understand this better, but I would agree and argue the adjustment process would
have occurred had the high employment years of the Clinton presidency continued to the Bush presidency
but that was not the case. The problem of trade dislocations that were not compensated for is
found during the Bush years. ]
"The idea here is to explain why targeting the economically large and persistent US trade deficit
is a reasonable policy goal.
This view is not widely accepted among economists. Everyone gets the by identity, the trade
deficit is a drag on growth, but numerous arguments push back on the idea that it's a problem.
Dean Baker and I tackle the issue here. The punchline, as suggested above, is not that the
drag impact of the trade deficit never gets offset. It clearly does, at times. But when offsets
are less forthcoming–the Fed's run out of ammo; the fiscal authorities have gone all austere–the
demand-reducing drag from trade imbalances is a problem.
Second, even in flush times, the trade deficit, which is exclusively in manufactured goods,
affects the industrial composition of employment, and it is in this regard that Trump has been
able to so effectively tap its politics. While high-ranking democrats were running around pushing
the next trade deal, he was talking directly to those voters who clearly perceived themselves
far more hurt than helped by globalization."
The U.S. went from 30% of its nonfarm employees in manufacturing to 12% because of rapid
growth in manufacturing productivity and limited demand, yes? The U.S. went from 12% to 9% because
of stupid and destructive macro policies--the Reagan deficits, the strong-dollar policy pushed
well past its sell-by date, too-tight monetary policy--that diverted it from its proper role as
a net exporter of capital and finance to economies that need to be net sinks rather than net sources
of the global flow of funds for investment, yes? The U.S. went from 9% to 8.7% because of the
extraordinarily rapid rise of China, yes? The U.S. went from 8.7% to 8.6% because of NAFTA, yes?
And yet the American political system right now is blaming all, 100%, every piece of that
decline from 30% to 8.6% and every problem that can be laid its door on brown people from Mexico.
By not making it clear that you are talking about 0.1%-points of a 21.4%-point phenomenon,
I think you are enabling that. I don't think this is a good thing to do...
"Was Trump able to capitalize on the very real losses that this and other trade agreements produced
in certain parts of the country in a way that Democrats were unable to? Again, yes."
How did he capitalize? By addressing the issue unlike the progressive neoliberals DeLong and
PGL's candidate Hillary.
Just talking about the Stopler Samuelson theorem every now and then doesn't address the issue.
"... One year after its decision in Citizens United, the US Supreme Court supplied a blueprint for canceling the dominance of the 1 percent over all levels of government that the Court had created with its decisions in Buckley v. Valeo and Citizens United. ..."
"... In Nevada Commission on Ethics v. Carrigan (2011) the Court upheld a portion of Nevada's Ethics in Government Law that prohibits an elected official from voting or taking any other official action when faced with a real or apparent conflict of interest. ..."
"... The case involved a city council member in Sparks, Nevada, Michael A. Carrigan, who had voted to approve a hotel/casino development project that would hire his election campaign manager as a consultant. After complaints were filed and an investigation held, Nevada's Commission on Ethics issued a written opinion censuring him. ..."
"... No member may vote upon any matter with respect to which the independence of judgment of a reasonable person in his or her situation would be materially affected by electioneering contributions or independent expenditures directly or indirectly from any one or more persons or entities that have a special pecuniary interest in the matter. ..."
The Supreme Court Supplied a Blueprint to Overcome Citizens
United -- We Just Need to Use It
Wednesday, January 25, 2017
By James Marc Leas, Truthout
A 2011 Supreme Court decision lights the way for local or
state governments to overcome Citizens United.
One year after its decision in Citizens United, the US
Supreme Court supplied a blueprint for canceling the
dominance of the 1 percent over all levels of government that
the Court had created with its decisions in Buckley v. Valeo
and Citizens United.
In Nevada Commission on Ethics v. Carrigan (2011) the
Court upheld a portion of Nevada's Ethics in Government Law
that prohibits an elected official from voting or taking any
other official action when faced with a real or apparent
conflict of interest.
The case involved a city council member in Sparks, Nevada,
Michael A. Carrigan, who had voted to approve a hotel/casino
development project that would hire his election campaign
manager as a consultant. After complaints were filed and an
investigation held, Nevada's Commission on Ethics issued a
written opinion censuring him.
Voting Under the Influence Can Be Banned
The Nevada Supreme Court reversed the Commission's
decision based on the First Amendment reasoning in Citizens
United. But the US Supreme Court overturned the Nevada
Supreme Court. Explaining the 9-0 decision, Justice Antonin
Scalia wrote that voting on a city council or in the
legislature is an official act, not speech. The Court held
that the First Amendment reasoning in Buckley and Citizens
United "has no application when what is restricted is not
protected speech."
The Court thus held that "restrictions on legislators' voting
are not restrictions on legislators' protected speech." It
further said that "the procedures for voting in legislative
assemblies ... pertain to legislators not as individuals but
as political representatives executing the legislative
process."
Justice Scalia also noted that "the legislator casts his
vote 'as trustee for his constituents, not as a prerogative
of personal power.' In this respect, voting by a legislator
is different from voting by a citizen." Because "a legislator
has no right to use official powers for expressive purposes"
the court held that, unlike laws restricting election
spending, legislative recusal rules do not violate the First
Amendment, and the holdings in Buckley and Citizens United do
not apply.
Model Rule Update
Here is a 54-word model rule update based on the Nevada
law upheld by the US Supreme Court that may be adopted by a
state's senate, house or municipal government:
No member may vote upon any matter with respect to
which the independence of judgment of a reasonable person
in his or her situation would be materially affected by
electioneering contributions or independent expenditures
directly or indirectly from any one or more persons or
entities that have a special pecuniary interest in the
matter.
libezkova -> RGC... , January 26, 2017 at 09:22 AM
That's an interesting avenue of fighting corruption of elected officials, but it does not directly
repeals "Citizens United", which is about the corruption of the whole political process ("one dollar
-- one vote" mentality).
Hillary proposed around $1.8 trillion / 10 years in
total new spending programs as of early last year, then
added more throughout the campaign season.
We've talked about this a number of times before and
yet you insist on pretending that infrastructural spending
is the only spending because your whole backward ideology
is predicated on lying about what Hillary Clinton actually
proposed. Seek mental help and stop being such a
mendacious twat.
Reply Wednesday, January 25, 2017 at 07:35 PM
Seems like Sanjait is the mendacious twat who gets really
angry when proven wrong. He can't argue the facts, like other
centrists, so they try to shout you down.
Clinton's bad economics - which is neoliberal economics -
is bad politics. If you google Hillary infrastructure
spending you get:
"That's why Hillary Clinton has announced a $275 billion,
five-year plan to rebuild our infrastructure-and put
Americans to work in the process"
Trump won the election partly on his promises to rebuild
the infrastructure bigly. The Senate Democrats have upped the
ante with a trillion dollar 10 year plan. That's twice as
much as Hillary's plan.
They know its good politics. The Post article says Trump
was thinking a trillion (via tax incentives and
private-public partnerships) but his friend is quoted as
saying more like $500 billion over ten years - Hillary sized.
Why wasn't Hillary's plan larger? Read Krugman's blog post
from yesterday.
Too much fiscal expansion causes the Fed to raise rates
and the dollar to appreciate. Did Hillary or her economics
surrogates ever explain this? No. Alan Blinder did say that
Hillary's fiscal plan wouldn't be large enough to cause the
Fed to alter it's rate hike path.
Krugman says fiscal deficits near full employment causes
interest rates to rise, like it's an economic law.
He's missing the middle factor, inflation. Fiscal deficits
cause inflation which cause the Fed to raise raise rates.
Oh yeah he left out the Fed also.
I repeated the story about Clinton dropping his middle
class spending bill in favor of deficit reduction but of
course the neoliberals ignore it.
"The master parable for this story is the 1990s, when the
Clinton administration came in with big plans for stimulus,
only to be slapped down by Alan Greenspan, who warned that
any increase in public spending would be offset by a
contractionary shift by the federal reserve. But once Clinton
made the walk to Canossa and embraced deficit reduction,
Greenspan's fed rewarded him with low rates, substituting
private investment in equal measure for the foregone public
spending. In the current contest, this means: Any increase in
federal borrowing will be offset one for one by a fall in
private investment - because the Fed will raise rates enough
to make it happen."
Sanjait wasn't even aware that the Fed has switched over
to the corridor system and will use IOER to help control
inflation as it raises rates. He assumed Dani Rodrik was a
woman.
And he presumes to go around and call people names about
technical issues that can be debated rationally with
reference to the facts?
"In 1992, Bill Clinton campaigned on the promise of a
short-term stimulus package. But soon after being elected, he
met privately with Alan Greenspan, chair of the Federal
Reserve Board, and soon accepted what became known as "the
financial markets strategy." It was a strategy of placating
financial markets. The stimulus package was sacrificed, taxes
were raised, spending was cut-all in a futile effort to keep
long-term interest rates from rising, and all of which helped
the Democrats lose their majority in the House. In fact, the
defeat of the stimulus package set off a sharp decline in
Clinton's public approval ratings from which his presidency
would never recover.
It is easy to forget that Clinton had other alternatives.
In 1993, Democrats in Congress were attempting to rein in the
Federal Reserve by making it more accountable and
transparent. Those efforts were led by the chair of the House
Banking Committee, the late Henry B. Gonzalez, who warned
that the Fed was creating a giant casino economy, a house of
cards, a "monstrous bubble." But such calls for regulation
and transparency fell on deaf ears in the Clinton White House
and Treasury.
The pattern was set early. The Federal Reserve became
increasingly independent of elected branches and more captive
of private financial interests. This was seen as "sound
economics" and necessary to keep inflation low. Yet the
Federal Reserve's autonomy left it a captive of a financial
constituency it could no longer control or regulate. Instead,
the Fed would rely on one very blunt policy instrument, its
authority to set short-term interest rates. As a result of
such an active monetary policy, the nation's fiscal policy
was constrained, public investment declined, critical
infrastructure needs were ignored. Moreover, the Fed's
stop-and-go interest-rate policy encouraged the growth of a
bubble economy in housing, credit, and currency markets.
Perhaps the biggest of these bubbles was the inflated U.S.
dollar, one of several troubling consequences of the Clinton
administration's free-trade policies. Although Clinton spoke
from the left on trade issues, he governed from the right and
ignored the need for any minimum floor on labor, human
rights, or environmental standards in trade agreements. After
pushing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)
through Congress on the strength of Republican votes, Clinton
paved the way for China's entry into the World Trade
Organization (WTO) only a few years after China's bloody
crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrators at Tiananmen Square
in Beijing.
During Clinton's eight years in office, the U.S. current
account deficit, the broadest measure of trade
competitiveness, increased fivefold, from $84 billion to $415
billion. The trade deficit increased most dramatically at the
end of the Clinton years. In 1999, the U.S. merchandise trade
deficit surpassed $338 billion, a 53 percent increase from
$220 billion in 1998.
In early March 2000, Greenspan warned that the current
account deficit could only be financed by "ever-larger
portfolio and direct foreign investments in the United
States, an outcome that cannot continue without limit." The
needed capital inflows did continue for nearly eight Bush
years. But it was inevitable that the inflows would not be
sustained and the dollar would drop. Perhaps the singular
success of Bill Clinton was to hand the hot potato to another
president before the asset price bubble went bust."
"The downward spiral began with Clinton's 1993 abandonment of
his original threefold economic program--deficit reduction,
economic stimulus and government investment in the nation's
physical and human infrastructure. Facing opposition to the
last two, Clinton abandoned them and focused on deficit
reduction. This painted him into a corner that makes it near
impossible to achieve any programmatic progress in this
term--and so makes unlikely any hope of a second.
The 1993 story has been cast as the victory of the
"deficit hawks," sober economists intent on reducing the gap
between federal spending and tax revenues, over the purely
political advocates of spending on the investment programs.
But the common perception--that the "hawks" represented the
responsible economic community, as against the irresponsible
politicians--is not true.
Almost every one of the economists in the Clinton
Administration had earlier espoused economic policies where
stimulus took priority over deficit control. Rightly
frightened by the mounting deficits of the Reagan-Bush years,
however, by the 1990s they had abandoned their roots for
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's "responsible"
economics--where reduction of the deficit and fear of
inflation were the operative factors."
"Now, the irony is that Wall Street had never squawked when
the first George Bush was spending like gangbusters or when
Ronald Reagan was spending like mad. But the thought was that
a Democratic administration has to sort of prove its chops,
prove itself capable of being much more fiscally responsible
than its Republican predecessors because it's a Democratic
administration. Well, to us, to me, to those on my side of
the debate, that sounded absurd. I mean, yes, let's satisfy
the bond traders to some extent. Obviously, we have to get
the deficit down somewhat. But let's not sacrifice the
Clinton agenda.
....
Reich: The desire to do it all, to have the Clinton
priorities and yet satisfy Wall Street led to this
extraordinary effort to go line by line by line through the
budget and to try to extract enough. And then the question
was, "Well, how much is enough?" Do you bring the budget
deficit down from five percent of the gross domestic product
down to two and a half percent? Which is, basically, cutting
the deficit by half. That's what many of us said we're
perfectly fine to do.
Others, who were the deficit hawks, said, "No, no, no, no.
You actually have to reduce the absolute amount of the
deficit by half. That was your campaign promise, that's what
we need to do. That's the only way we're going to satisfy
Wall Street."
And in the background, Alan Greenspan, as head of the Fed,
was whispering in ears -- Lloyd Bentsen's ear, and I think
also the President's ear, "If you don't get this budget
deficit down, I am not going to cut short-term interest
rates. And if I don't cut short-term interest rates, by the
time you face the next election in 1996, this economy is not
going to be growing buoyantly, and you may not be
re-elected." That's called extortion."
It wasn't so long ago that American politicians lived in
fear of the bond market. During the Clinton administration,
James Carville famously said that "I used to think if there
was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or
the pope or a .400 baseball hitter. But now I want to come
back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody." That
phenomenon gave rise to the concept of the "bond market
vigilantes," which Krugman loves to employ.
But today, the bond market vigilantes are not much in
evidence. Or rather, they are in evidence, but they suddenly
seem unable to have much of an impact on US fiscal policy.
Bill Gross, of the ludicrously enormous bond fund PIMCO, is
running around screaming about the need for more borrowing
and more stimulus. But he has no effect, because it turns out
that while bond investors have powerful ways of constraining
US government borrowing, they have only indirect and weak
means of expanding it.
The United States has a large debt that is routinely
rolled over, and it generally runs a budget deficit (Clinton
interregnum aside). If bond investors start demanding higher
interest rates on government debts, this immediately raises
the cost of borrowing for the US government. This, in turn,
has knock-on effects throughout the economy, as interest
rates rise for everyone and economic activity is thereby
constrained. For these reasons, the US government has
powerful incentives to avoid doing things that cause the
interest rate on treasuries to rise.
Today, however, we find ourselves in the opposite
situation: what the bond market seems to want most of all is
for the US to borrow more money and stimulate the economy.
That's the best explanation for the incredibly low yield on
Treasury bonds, which is negative in real terms over some
time periods. And yet the US is not borrowing more; instead
both parties are demanding insane policies that will cause a
second recession, ostensibly based on fallacious notions
about the magical effects of budget cutting and a nonsensical
conception of the relationship between government and
household finances.
The problem here is that the power of the bond market is
asymmetrical. When the interest rate on Treasuries go up,
this immediately makes all of the government's activities
more expensive, and hence forces changes in fiscal planning.
But when the interest rate falls to near zero, this only
presents an opportunity for expanded borrowing, an
opportunity that can easily be thrown away if the political
system is too insane and dysfunctional to take advantage of
it.
Hence the bond vigilantes sit on the sidelines, impotent
and hopeless. Just like the rest of us.
Dean Baker has some interesting "Free Market" proposals that
will make elitist libertarians sputter.
He suggests a vacant property tax, which I see is a good
idea, especially in dense urban areas. It takes our city
years to get abandoned houses condemned or landlord
compliance through the legal system.
I would take it one step further and drastically raise taxes
on parking lots. I would not allow religious organizations to
exempt their parking lots from this tax. Other buildings, ok,
but churches should not be allowed to destroy the tax base
and neighborhoods by replacing buildings with parking lots.
I would say that Dean Bakers proposals fit with DeLong's call
for better economic policy:
From his comments
"I would note that the "trade deals" did not create
international trade. If you want to say that we should have
no international trade, be my guest--but Donald Trump will
not agree with you. The problem is that he is saying that
getting rid of NAFTA and getting tough with China will bring
all those good manufacturing jobs back. And that is
completely false.
As I say, technology has carried us down from 30% to
12%--and we do not want to hinder that--lousy macro policies
have gotten us down from 12% to 9%, and "trade deals" have
maybe gotten us down from 9% to 8.6%. If you don't want to
hear that, I can't make you..."
I would note that the "trade deals" did not create
international trade. If you want to say that we should have
no international trade, be my guest--but Donald Trump will
not agree with you. The problem is that he is saying that
getting rid of NAFTA and getting tough with China will bring
all those good manufacturing jobs back. And that is
completely false.
Dean Baker writing about market based reforms for publication
by AEI is not the pro-labor Dean Baker that we have come to
love and honor. It gets him exposure that he would otherwise
not have though.
"... Late last year (December 2016), an interesting academic research paper was released by the National Bureau of Economic Research – The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility Since 1940 – which provides stark evidence of the way in which this neo-liberal era is panning out and suppressing the opportunities for the least advantaged. ..."
"... Recently released research is now showing that around 50 per cent of American children born in 1980 have incomes higher than their parents compared to 90 per cent born in 1940. The so-called 'American Dream' is looking like a nightmare. ..."
"... The message from Pen was that the damage was done by the time the child reached their teenage years. While the later stages of Capitalism has found new ways to reinforce the elites which support the continuation of its exploitation and surplus labour appropriation (for example, deregulation, suppression of trade unions, real wage suppression, fiscal austerity), it remains that class differentials, which have always restricted upward mobility. ..."
Posted on Thursday, January 26, 2017 by bill mitchell
Late last year (December 2016), an interesting academic research paper was released by the
National Bureau of Economic Research – The Fading American Dream: Trends in Absolute Income Mobility
Since 1940 – which provides stark evidence of the way in which this neo-liberal era is panning out
and suppressing the opportunities for the least advantaged.
One of the constantly repeating claims made by conservatives is that if governments run deficits
they are really undermining the future for their children and their children. The claim is that while
the current generation is living it up (deficits are tantamount in this narrative to living a profligate
existence), the next generations will have to pay for it via higher taxes and reduced services. It
is a bizarre argument given that each generation chooses its own tax burden and we cannot transfer
real resources through time. There is truth in the argument that if the current generation imposes
terminal damage to our natural environment then we are diminishing the prospects for the future.
But that is not the point that the neo-liberals make. Indeed, there is a strong positive relationship
between conservative views of fiscal policy (deficits) and the propensity to engage in climate change
denial.
Recently released research is now showing that around 50 per cent of American children born
in 1980 have incomes higher than their parents compared to 90 per cent born in 1940. The so-called
'American Dream' is looking like a nightmare. Other research has shown that the bottom 50 per
cent of the US income distribution have not enjoyed any of the growth since 1980 and that the top-end-of-town
has increased its share of income from 12 per cent in 1980s to 20 per cent in 2014.
These shifts are the result of deliberate policy changes and inaction by governments, increasingly
co-opted by the rich to serve their interests at the expense of the broader societal well-being.
Revolutions have occurred for less.
It was considered the norm of human progress that each generation would leave the next generation
better off. As parents we would ensure our children were (collectively) better off.
In his 2012 study of cultural history, The American Dream, Lawrence Samuel reprised the term introduced
in 1931 by James Truslow Adams (in his The Epic of America). The two books should be read together
to understand the evolution of the thinking about an American identity.
Samuel reflected on the fact that "that the term 'American Dream' was created in the darkest days
of the Great Depression was all the more interesting given that many feared it no longer existed".
Times were so bad for many during that period.
Samuel published his book during the GFC, the worst downturn since the Great Depression. He considers
there were six eras since the Great Depression marked by different characteristics and circumstance.
But binding the social progress that defines the 'American Dream' was, in the words of the NBER
authors the "ideal that children have a higher standard of living than their parents".
We think of our own progress relative to that of our parents.
In recent history, the parents of the baby boomers had endured the Great Depression with it mass
unemployment and rising poverty rates, then the Second World War and its aftermath.
Reflecting on that experience, this generation worked through government to ensure there was full
employment, broad rights of citizenship with respect to income support, improved public services
and reduced income inequality through income redistribution.
Wages growth was strong and proportional with productivity growth and mass education and public
health improvements made obvious positive contributions to the growing well-being.
The 1950s and 1960s were not nirvana, but they were a damn site better than the two decades before
that and the many before those.
Full employment combined with mass education, in particular, were considered an essential part
of the quest for upward mobility
Previous research has shown that US children (a result that transfers across most nations) are
pretty much doomed from the start as a result of who their parents are and the resources the parents
have at their disposal.
I have written about this before. Please see – Parents are advance secret agents for the class
society.
The title of that blog came from the work of Dutch economist Jan Pen, who wrote in his 1971 book
– Income Distribution – that public policy had to target disadvantaged children in low-income neighbourhoods
at an early age if governments wanted to change the patterns of social and income mobility.
The message from Pen was that the damage was done by the time the child reached their teenage
years. While the later stages of Capitalism has found new ways to reinforce the elites which support
the continuation of its exploitation and surplus labour appropriation (for example, deregulation,
suppression of trade unions, real wage suppression, fiscal austerity), it remains that class differentials,
which have always restricted upward mobility.
This also means that as fiscal austerity has further pushed people towards to the bottom of the
income distribution that increasing numbers of children will inherit the disadvantage of their parents
and this inheritance becomes a vicious circle of poverty and alienation.
In America, research has clearly shown that it is socioeconomic status rather than race which
"largely explains gaps that appear to be due to race" (see cited blog for sources).
It is very obvious now that the bias towards fiscal austerity, which has been the hallmark of
the neo-liberal era has increased inequality and suppressed dynamic forces in labour markets that
promote upward mobility.
By failing to quickly end the most recent downturn (GFC) governments have allowed dynamic forces
to multiply which reinforce disadvantage and suppress upward mobility.
While unemployment has been high (and remains high in most nations), the great American economist
Arthur Okun considered it to be the 'Tip of the Iceberg'.
The point is that the costs of recession and the resulting persistent unemployment extend well
beyond the loss of jobs. Productivity is lower, participation rates are lower, the quality of work
suffers and real wages typically fall.
The facts associated with the current downturn are consistent with this general model.
Within this context, Okun outlined his upgrading hypothesis (in the 1960s and 1970s) and the related
high-pressure economy model, which provided a coherent rationale for Keynesian demand-stimulus policy
positions.
Two references of relevance are Okun, A.M. (1973) 'Upward Mobility in a High-Pressure Economy',
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 207-252 and Okun, A.M. (1983) Economics for Policymaking,
Cambridge, MIT Press.
Arthur Okun (1983: 171) believed that:
unemployment was merely the tip of the iceberg that forms in a cold economy. The difference
between unemployment rates of 5 percent and 4 percent extends far beyond the creation of jobs for
1 percent of the labor force. The submerged part of the iceberg includes (a) additional jobs for
people who do not actively seek work in a slack labor market but nonetheless take jobs when they
become available; (b) a longer workweek reflecting less part-time and more overtime employment; and
(c) extra productivity – more output per man-hour – from fuller and more efficient use of labor and
capital.
The positive side of this thinking is that disadvantaged groups in the economy were considered
to achieve upward mobility as a result of higher economic activity. The saying that was attached
to this line of reasoning was "all boats (large or small) rise on the high tide".
Okun's (1973) results are summarised as follows:
The most cyclically sensitive industries have large employment gaps, and were dominated by prime-age
males, offered high-paying jobs, offered other remuneration characteristics (fringes) which encouraged
long-term attachments between employers and employees, and displayed above-average output per person
hour.
In demographic terms, when the employment gap is closed in aggregate, prime-age males exit low-paying
industries and take jobs in other higher paying sectors and their jobs are taken mainly by young
people.
In the advantaged industries, adult males gain large numbers of jobs but less than would occur
if the demographic composition of industry employment remained unchanged following the gap closure.
As a consequence, other demographic groups enter these 'good' jobs.
The demographic composition of industry employment is cyclically sensitive. The shift effects
are in total estimated (in 1970) to be of the same magnitude as the scale effects (the proportional
increases in employment across demographic groups assuming constant shares).
This indicates that a large number of labour market changes (the shifts) are generally of the
ladder climbing type within demographic groups from low-pay to higher-pay industries.
So prior to the neo-liberal onslaught and during the period that governments were cogniscant of
their responsibilities to maintain full employment (and actively used fiscal and monetary policy
to attack high unemployment relatively quickly), a recovery reversed the damage caused by the recession.
The evidence supported the proposition that when the economy is maintained at high levels of employment,
workers in low paying sectors (or occupations) also receive income boosts because employers seeking
to meet their strong labour demand offer employment and training opportunities to the most disadvantaged
in the population. If the economy falters, these groups are the most severely hit in terms of lost
income opportunities.
The full employment era (roughly 1945 to the late 1970s) to some extent, therefore, eroded the
worst effects of the class differences that we discussed earlier.
Which is one reason why the conservatives had to take control of the state, which had been acting
as a mediator in the class struggle – to encourage upward mobility.
The onslaught against full employment and the Welfare State (the hallmark of the social democratic
era) began in the early 1970s as well-funded right-wing (so-called 'free market') think tanks started
to publish a barrage of propaganda, infiltrated academic institutions, took over the mainstream media,
and, even compromised judicial processes (for example, the appointment of Lewis Powell to the US
Supreme Court).
The upshot has been that once full employment was abandoned and governments adopted a chronic
bias towards fiscal austerity (the belief that fiscal deficits are intrinsically bad), the upgrading
benefits that used to accompany growth have been hijacked by the rich and the vast majority of the
population now miss out.
In part, this is due to the increased casualisation of the labour market, the suppression of real
wages growth, the attack on trade unions, and the shift away from high productivity job creation
towards the FIRE sector, which is a largely unproductive sector.
The neo-liberal attack on the role of government in ensuring policy advances the well-being of
all has changed the way the distributional system operates – with workers now finding it harder to
gain access to real income growth despite contributing more per hour (productivity growth stronger).
Under these circumstances, the old class screening and channelling that the schooling system has
provided for the Capitalist system is intensified and inequality accelerates.
We are now starting to see the empirical results of this as cohort studies permit generational
comparisons. Shedding light on what has been happening between generations is the task of the NBER
paper cited in the Introduction.
The paper by a host of US academics (Raj Chetty, David Grusky, Maximilian Hell, Nathaniel Hendren.
Robert Manduca and Jimmy Narang) asks two questions:
First, what fraction of children earn more than their parents today? Second, how have rates of absolute
mobility changed over time?
Absolute income mobility is defined as the:
the fraction of children earning or consuming more than their parents.
They seek to answer these questions using "historical data from the Census and CPS cross-sections
with panel data for recent birth cohorts from de-identified tax records" that allows them to uniquely
bind parent and children incomes.
I will leave it to your interest to explore the techniques they employed. They are very innovative.
Basically they:
"measure income in pre-tax dollars at the household level when parents and children are approximately
thirty years old, adjusting for inflation "
"estimate the fraction of children who earn more than their parents in each birth cohort "
The headline findings are:
"we find that rates of absolute upward income mobility in the United States have fallen sharply
since 1940".
"the fraction of children earning more than their parents fell from 92% in the 1940 birth
cohort to 50% in the 1984 birth cohort."
"Rates of absolute mobility fell the most for children with parents in the middle class."
The finding of a decline in absolute majority is robust across different dimensions (pre-tax,
post-transfer; age of child when measured; regions, gender, impacts of immigration, etc).
"Absolute mobility fell in all 50 states between the 1940 and 1980 cohorts, although the rate
of decline varied, with the largest declines concentrated in states in the industrial Midwest
states such as Michigan and Illinois."
These are Trump's 'rust belts' that he appealed to during the Presidential election.
The following graph is one of many they produce (each offering a different dimension, for example,
wage income, family income etc) and "plots the fraction of children earning more than their parents
('absolute mobility') by average by child birth cohort."
So you interpret it as saying that 90 per cent of children born in 1940 will on average have incomes
higher than their parents, whereas, only 50 per cent of children born in 1980 will on average have
incomes higher than their parents, and so on.
The authors ask: "Why have rates of upward income mobility fallen so sharply over the past half
century?"
They offer the following possible reasons:
There have been two important macroeconomic trends that have affected the incomes of children
born in the 1980s relative to those born in the 1940s: lower Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth
rates and greater inequality in the distribution of growth
They reject the first, saying that "the slowdown in aggregate economic growth in recent decades,
although important, does not explain most of the observed decline in absolute mobility."
Their counterfactual analysis shows that:
increasing GDP growth without changing the current distribution of growth would have modest
effects on rates of absolute mobility.
The problem is that:
a large fraction of GDP goes to a small number of high income earners today, higher GDP growth
does not substantially increase the number of children who earn more than their parents.
The key takeaway of their research is this:
The key point is that reviving the "American Dream" of high rates of absolute mobility would require
more broadly shared economic growth rather than just higher GDP growth rates.
This research is consistent with studies in other nations. For example, see the analysis in my
blog – Policy changes needed to arrest decline in fortunes for low-pay British workers.
The point is that the neo-liberal era with widening income inequality, entrenched labour underutilisation,
suppressed wages growth and continued attacks on income support systems is producing an unsustainable
society.
Eventually, there will be a counterattack as the middle class prospects continue to be eroded.
While it might not come from the current generation, the children who are no coming into adulthood
have been dealt a very poor hand by their parents.
If the NBER research is correct, then 50 per cent of Americans born in 1980 (now in their mid-1930)
are enjoying absolute mobility (relative to their parents), which brings into question the concept
of the 'American Dream', a cultural device to maintain social stability and endeavour.
It should not be forgotten that the parents themselves are under attack from this dysfunctional
system and the prospects of growing intergenerational wealth through inheritance is becoming a faded
reality for many families.
Another perspective is offered in this paper also released in December 2016 by French economists
Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman – : Distributional National Accounts: Methods and
Estimates for the United States.
The paper examines the "growth rates for each quantile of the income distribution consistent with
macroeconomic growth" in the US since 1913.
I will look at it more closely another day but its major findings are that:
"a sharp divergence in the growth experienced by the bottom 50% versus the rest of the economy."
"The average pre-tax income of the bottom 50% of adults has stagnated since 1980 at about
$16,000 per adult (in constant 2014 dollars, using the national income deflator), while average
national income per adult has grown by 60% to $64,500 in 2014."
"As a result, the bottom 50% income share has collapsed from about 20% in 1980 to 12% in 2014."
"In the meantime, the average pre-tax income of top 1% adults rose from $420,000 to about
$1.3 million, and their income share increased from about 12% in the early 1980s to 20% in 2014."
"The two groups have essentially switched their income shares, with 8 points of national income
transferred from the bottom 50% to the top 1%. The top 1% income share is now almost twice as
large as the bottom 50% share, a group that is by definition 50 times more numerous. In 1980,
top 1% adults earned on average 27 times more than bottom 50% adults before tax while today they
earn 81 times more."
"government redistribution has offset only a small fraction of the increase in pre-tax inequality."
"the upsurge of top incomes has mostly been a capital-driven phenomenon since the late 1990s.
There is a widespread view that rising income inequality mostly owes to booming wages at the top
end, i.e., a rise of the "working rich." Our results confirm that this view is correct from the
1970s to the 1990s. But in contrast to earlier decades, the increase in income concentration over
the last fifteen years owes to a boom in the income from equity and bonds at the top. The working
rich are either turning into or being replaced by rentiers. Top earners became younger in the
1980s and 1990s but have been growing older since then."
So beware the middle-class. Your children are already losing out but neo-liberal is eating into
the parental well-being as well as the financial capitalists prosper.
Conclusion
This situation is obviously unsustainable.
It is time for the Left to stand up and lead the way out of this mess.
Growth and redistribution is needed. Governments have to take on the top-end-of-town. They can
start by introducing employment guarantees that provide decent pay (with social wage additions) to
anyone, thus eliminating the income insecurity.
Then some serious regulation is required to rein in the financial sector (I would basically eliminate
much of it).
The Left are scared to say anything because, in part, their leadership is compromised by relationships
with the financial capitalists (for example, the revelations about Hillary Clinton in the leaked
E-mails), and, also, because they have a massive inferiority complex when discussing macroeconomics.
They think if they argue that fiscal deficits are usually desirable and should be continuous they
will look irresponsible. Well that is because they have allowed the public to be indoctrinated into
these erroneous views.
The Left has to launch a massive educational onslaught to redress this knowledge gap as they set
about reversing the ravages of neo-liberalism.
A brief comment. First, Okun was one smart cookie.
Shorter and nerdier Okun:
1. Wage growth increases as the U6 underemployment rate falls under 10%.
2. As the economy heats up, U6 falls faster than U3, meaning an increasing share of marginal
workers get jobs. These marginal workers are disproportionately minority groups.
3. Therefore, full employment tends to increase equality.
4. Unions were good vehicles to keep the labor share high enough that full or nearly full employment
happened far more often.
"Unions were good vehicles to keep the labor share high enough that full or nearly full
employment happened far more often."
If this is true, isn't a bit of a paradox, since unions are a monopoly and in theory monopolies
increase price by restricting supply? It could be true however, that the POLITICAL power of unions
meant that full employment was regarded as a higher priority than inflation. (Note unions very
much prioritize the interests of workers, even to some extent to the detriment of other poorer
sections of the community. Could it have been that this caused a backlash in a western world that
has been steadily getting older?)
General note, I'm perhaps an oddity on the left in that I'm not convinced that more union power
is necessarily the way forward, no matter how effective it was in the past. I don't see the requirements
of the future world as being the same as the requirements of the past.
I agree that more union power might not be the primary way forward, but in the absence of other
effective proposals, it certainly should be one lever.
And yes, it is a paradox. On a micro scale, unions may act to the detriment of other potential
workers, but on the macro scale, the effects on full employment may well outweigh that drawback.
Union power has been the key to worker power and increasing worker share for everyone, even nonunion
workers, for a century. I see no reason why that should not be true now. Indeed, we need to expand
union protections to a lot of workers who have not traditionally been covered (IT workers, low
level professionals, etc.).
Unions gave us higher wages for labor. Higher wages for labor gave us more spending. More spending
gave us more jobs and lower unemployment. More jobs and lower unemployment AND unions gave us
higher wages for labor. It is that old virtuous cycle thing until capital and management start
pulling at a thread.
"General note, I'm perhaps an oddity on the left in that I'm not convinced that more union power
is necessarily the way forward, no matter how effective it was in the past. I don't see the requirements
of the future world as being the same as the requirements of the past."
I completely disagree and the acceptance of liberals of the destruction of the union movement
is a primary reason why things have gone so badly.
Does Krugman ever talk about unions? No.
Does DeLong? No.
What did Obama do for unions?
Denis Drew is right. Maybe it's true that unions are never coming back but then if so we're
in big trouble. It will take some sort of calamity to set things right.
Look at Senate Republicans blocking Supreme Court nominations.
If the democratic socialist ever got significant power you could expect a revolt by finance
and big business and the one percent.
I've always imagined it would take a general strike to overcome such a capital strike.
My god, look at Canada. They still have unions. Same with Germany.
This fatalism regarding unions is one reason why things are so bad. Unions helped get out the
vote among many other things.
One just needs to study labor history. Of course the neoliberals may be right that unions are
of the past, but I suspect they're engaged in motivated reasoning.
You can unionize all jobs that can't be offshored.
I suspect the anti-union sentiment as expressed by reason - and many other well-meaning types
- is the result of decades of pro-business anti-union propaganda.
"... "Financialization is a key feature of neoliberalism. It refers to the capturing impact of financial markets, institutions, actors, instruments and logics on the real economy, households and daily life. Essentially it has significant implications for the broader patterns and functioning of a (inter)national economy, transforming its fabrics and modificating the mutual embeddedness of state-economy-society." ..."
"... That's why neoliberalism is often called "casino capitalism" ..."
"... Johnson wishes that the wealthy would adopt a greater "spirit of stewardship," an openness to policy change that could include, for instance, a more aggressive tax on inheritance. "Twenty-five hedge-fund managers make more money than all of the kindergarten teachers in America combined," he said. ..."
Greta Krippner of the University of Michigan writes that financialization refers to a "pattern
of accumulation in which profit making occurs increasingly through financial channels rather than
through trade and commodity production." In the introduction to the 2005 book Financialization
and the World Economy, editor Gerald A. Epstein wrote that some scholars have insisted on a much
narrower use of the term: the ascendancy of shareholder value as a mode of corporate governance,
or the growing dominance of capital market financial systems over bank-based financial systems.
Pierre-Yves Gomez and Harry Korine, in their 2008 book Entrepreneurs and Democracy: A Political
Theory of Corporate Governance, have identified a long-term trend in the evolution of corporate
governance of large corporations and have shown that financialization is one step in this process.
Oleg Komlik asserts that financialization is a state project, stressing that:[2]
"Financialization is a key feature of neoliberalism. It refers to the capturing impact of financial
markets, institutions, actors, instruments and logics on the real economy, households and daily
life. Essentially it has significant implications for the broader patterns and functioning of
a (inter)national economy, transforming its fabrics and modificating the mutual embeddedness of
state-economy-society."
Michael Hudson described financialization as "a lapse back into the pre-industrial usury and
rent economy of European feudalism" in a 2003 interview:[3]
"only debts grew exponentially, year after year, and they do so inexorably, even when–indeed,
especially when–the economy slows down and its companies and people fall below break-even levels.
As their debts grow, they siphon off the economic surplus for debt service (...) The problem is
that the financial sector's receipts are not turned into fixed capital formation to increase output.
They build up increasingly on the opposite side of the balance sheet, as new loans, that is, debts
and new claims on society's output and income.
[Companies] are not able to invest in new physical capital equipment or buildings because they
are obliged to use their operating revenue to pay their bankers and bondholders, as well as junk-bond
holders. This is what I mean when I say that the economy is becoming financialized. Its aim is
not to provide tangible capital formation or rising living standards, but to generate interest,
financial fees for underwriting mergers and acquisitions, and capital gains that accrue mainly
to insiders, headed by upper management and large financial institutions. The upshot is that the
traditional business cycle has been overshadowed by a secular increase in debt. Instead of labor
earning more, hourly earnings have declined in real terms. There has been a drop in net disposable
income after paying taxes and withholding "forced saving" for social Security and medical insurance,
pension-fund contributions and–most serious of all–debt service on credit cards, bank loans, mortgage
loans, student loans, auto loans, home insurance premiums, life insurance, private medical insurance
and other FIRE-sector charges. ... This diverts spending away from goods and services.
"Financialization is a key feature of neoliberalism. It refers to the capturing impact of financial
markets, institutions, actors, instruments and logics on the real economy, households and daily
life."
That's why neoliberalism is often called "casino capitalism"
Meanwhile neoliberal "masters of the universe" are buying private jets and create plans to evacuate
families to NZ in case pitchforks arrive to their residencies
By January, 2015, Johnson was sounding the alarm: the tensions produced by acute income inequality
were becoming so pronounced that some of the world's wealthiest people were taking steps to protect
themselves. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Johnson told the audience, "I know
hedge-fund managers all over the world who are buying airstrips and farms in places like New Zealand
because they think they need a getaway."
Johnson wishes that the wealthy would adopt a greater "spirit of stewardship," an openness
to policy change that could include, for instance, a more aggressive tax on inheritance. "Twenty-five
hedge-fund managers make more money than all of the kindergarten teachers in America combined,"
he said.
"Being one of those twenty-five doesn't feel good. I think they've developed a heightened sensitivity."
The gap is widening further. In December, the National Bureau of Economic Research published a
new analysis, by the economists Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez, and Gabriel Zucman, which found
that half of American adults have been "completely shut off from economic growth since the 1970s."
Approximately a hundred and seventeen million people earn, on average, the same income that
they did in 1980, while the typical income for the top one per cent has nearly tripled. That gap
is comparable to the gap between average incomes in the U.S. and the Democratic Republic of Congo,
the authors wrote.
"... Most of the major changes he mentions are clearly and explicitly the consequence of policy changes, mostly by Republicans, starting with Reagan: deregulation, lower taxes on the wealthy, a lack of antitrust enforcement, and the like. ..."
This is frankly rather disingenuous. Most of the major changes he mentions are clearly and explicitly
the consequence of policy changes, mostly by Republicans, starting with Reagan: deregulation,
lower taxes on the wealthy, a lack of antitrust enforcement, and the like.
libezkova -> DrDick... January 25, 2017 at 09:29 PM
Read through the link and it's not nearly that simple, especially when you consider the fact that
some trends, though plausibly or certainly reinforced through policy, aren't entirely or even
primarily caused by policy.
I did not say they were the *only* factors, but they are the primary causes. If you look at the
timelines and data trends it is pretty clear. Reagan broke the power of the Unions and started
deregulation (financialization is a consequence of this), which is the period when the big increases
began. Automation plays a secondary role in this. what has happened is that the few industries
which are most conducive to automation have remained here (like final assembly of automobiles),
while the many, more labor intensive industries (automobile components manufacturing) have been
offshored to low wage, not labor or environmental protections countries.
Both parties participated in the conversion of the USA into neoliberal society. So it was a bipartisan
move.
Clinton did a lot of dirty work in this direction and was later royally remunerated for his
betrayal of the former constituency of the Democratic Party and conversion it into "yet another
neoliberal party"
Obama actually continued Bush and Clinton work. He talked about 'change we can believe in'
while saving Wall street and real estate speculators from jail they fully deserved.
Very true. Republicans were in the vanguard and did most heavy lifting. That's undeniable.
But Clinton's negative effects were also related to the weakening the only countervailing force
remaining on the way of the neoliberalism -- trade unionism. So he played the role of "subversive
agent" in the Democratic Party. His betrayal of trade union political interests and his demoralizing
role should be underestimated.
"... If the American peasants were going to revolt they would have done it already. Fortunately for the rich, the peasants have been mollified by opiates, marijuana, cheap industrial calories, videogames and unlimited trash entertainment, and a fawning endless adoration for the rich and famous. And when that fails theyve got mega churches spouting hopium too. ..."
"... By the way, look around most of the country. It's designed without public squares which are necessary for protest and assembly. Look at the BLM protests, they tried to take the freeways and the whites just got furious that their fat SUVs were impeded. ..."
"... Americans are the most apathetic population on earth ..."
"... Peasants do not start revolutions. It is members of the enlightened elite who clap their hands and trigger the avalanche. Their attempts at gradual reform begin by harnessing, and thereby empowering, the threatened, desperate lower-middle class, which turns and rends their fellows and their superiors (the 90-99% in today's jargon). The breakdown of consensus in the middle orders creates chaos, which in turn empowers those who benefit from instability, especially psychopaths, who cannot last long in places with community or corporate memory, but who flourish in civil disorder. ..."
"... They are right. A french-revolution-style reckoning is coming. We will have to dismantle and redistribute their fortunes. And those that resist will not survive. ..."
"... They should be afraid, and they should know that the later the reckoning, the angrier the mob. The angrier the mob, the likelier accidents happen. ..."
"... They are mostly blind to the need to redistribute, and those that are not are blocked by the system (the neoliberal world order) from acting. ..."
"... I guess they adhere that now-old adage: He who dies with the most toys WINS. ..."
"... This very day, NYT reports that Peter Thiel has (i.e., "bought") New Zealand citizenship. And then hilariously goes on to suggest that this expedient could well be thanks to Thiel's adolescent enthusiasm for "Lord of the Rings", which is where they produced the movie, so "becoming a citizen might be the next best thing to living in Middle-earth itself ." ..."
"... The Masque of the Red Death ..."
"... And therein lies the error: they don't judge themselves by the norms they sold (or failed to sell) to us. ..."
"... I'd count the Zuck's purchase of 700 acres (similar acreage to Central Park) as a bolt-hole. And peter Thiel's in New Zealand. Guess the help will be relegated to the Blueseed floating city ..."
"... The French aristocracy was pretty surprised in 1789 how unprepared they were. I'd tend to put them in the former group. Our oligarchy? Definitely psychopaths. ..."
"... The current hedgies should watch Adam Curtis's 4 part docu "The MayFair Set". It's on utube. Or, if 4 hours is too long, they could watch just part 2, notice James Goldsmith, and then watch part 4 starting at about minute 23. Another prepper. Why all the paranoia and prepping? ..."
"... Lavish follies apparently become tiresome or expensive to maintain or lonely or in some other way unappealing after they're built. So now one can rent a villa at Goldsmith's Mexican hideaway, for a considerable sum of course. ..."
"... IF collapse came, I absolutely WOULD go on a 1%er hunt. Open season. ..."
"... Sarcasm on. Hedge fund managers anticipate They're so good at that. That's why hedge fund yields for pension funds are so much better than other fund yields for pension funds. (8^)) Sarcasm off. ..."
"... I don't understand why these pampered, self-worshipping, self-entitled rich scumbags think that New Zealanders will welcome them with open arms if SHTF. ..."
"... Yes, that's the flaw. New Zealand would be great for their purposes if not for the small problem that it's full of New Zealanders. The society is strongly egalitarian, much more so than the US, and has different core values (less about freedom and more about fairness). ..."
"... Thiel's land purchase in the South Island has been front page news lately, along with the news that he didn't have to comply with foreign investment criteria because he is a NZ citizen (which just raised the question of how and why he received citizenship). ..."
"... "What does that really tell us about our system? It's a very odd thing. You're basically seeing that the people who've been the best at reading the tea leaves-the ones with the most resources, because that's how they made their money-are now the ones most preparing to pull the rip cord and jump out of the plane." ..."
"... buying airstrips and farms ..."
"... Prime Minister Bill English has defended a decision to grant citizenship to American tech billionaire Peter Thiel, saying "a little bit of flexibility" is useful when it comes to citizenship laws. ..."
"... English said there needed to be a balance between giving everyone a fair chance of citizenship, and encouraging those who would make a positive difference to New Zealand. ..."
"... "If people come here and invest and get into philanthropy and are supportive of New Zealand, then we're better off for their interest in our country, and as a small country at the end of the world, that's not a bad thing. ..."
"... NZ First leader Winston Peters' suggestion that the Government was selling citizenship was "ridiculous", English said. ..."
If the American peasants were going to revolt they would have done it already. Fortunately
for the rich, the peasants have been mollified by opiates, marijuana, cheap industrial calories,
videogames and unlimited trash entertainment, and a fawning endless adoration for the rich and
famous. And when that fails theyve got mega churches spouting hopium too.
By the way, look around most of the country. It's designed without public squares which
are necessary for protest and assembly. Look at the BLM protests, they tried to take the freeways
and the whites just got furious that their fat SUVs were impeded.
If you want to see the future watch Idiocracy not the French Revolution. Americans are
the most apathetic population on earth .
Maybe they just have different priorities? Maybe they have come from countries where life looks
like "the s hit the f" is the norm, but still manage to make do?
Peasants do not start revolutions. It is members of the enlightened elite who clap their
hands and trigger the avalanche. Their attempts at gradual reform begin by harnessing, and thereby
empowering, the threatened, desperate lower-middle class, which turns and rends their fellows
and their superiors (the 90-99% in today's jargon). The breakdown of consensus in the middle orders
creates chaos, which in turn empowers those who benefit from instability, especially psychopaths,
who cannot last long in places with community or corporate memory, but who flourish in civil disorder.
Is Trump the reformer who triggers the avalanche – our Duc D'Orleans, later Philippe Egalite,
under which name he was guillotined? The looks on the faces of Louis XVI and Hillary Clinton were
probably equally dumbfounded when they found themselves stymied by their respective rivals at
the "Assembly of Notables."
They are right. A french-revolution-style reckoning is coming. We will have to dismantle and
redistribute their fortunes. And those that resist will not survive.
They should be afraid, and they should know that the later the reckoning, the angrier the mob.
The angrier the mob, the likelier accidents happen.
At this point, I do not see another option. They are mostly blind to the need to redistribute,
and those that are not are blocked by the system (the neoliberal world order) from acting.
A truly nutty non-solution from the greediest nastiest bastards on the planet. Just frickin
great. They know what they should do, but they adamantly refuse to do it in order to remain mired
in the greedy proflgate ways.
I guess they adhere that now-old adage: He who dies with the most toys WINS.
I wonder when the elites will make themselves Pyramids? Or are they planning to bury themselves
inside these damn bunkers instead? Using the bunkers as necropoli probably makes more sense than
what they're actually planning to use them for.
This very day, NYT reports that Peter Thiel has (i.e., "bought") New Zealand citizenship. And
then hilariously goes on to suggest that this expedient could well be thanks to Thiel's adolescent
enthusiasm for "Lord of the Rings", which is where they produced the movie, so "becoming a citizen
might be the next best thing to living in Middle-earth itself ."
The good news is, these guys will doubtless revert to cannibalism in short order .
I guess they haven't read The Masque of the Red Death .
The story takes place at the castellated abbey of the "happy and dauntless and sagacious"
Prince Prospero. Prospero and 1,000 other nobles have taken refuge in this walled abbey to
escape the Red Death, a terrible plague with gruesome symptoms that has swept over the land.
Victims are overcome by "sharp pains", "sudden dizziness", and hematidrosis, and die within
half an hour. Prospero and his court are indifferent to the sufferings of the population at
large; they intend to await the end of the plague in luxury and safety behind the walls of
their secure refuge, having welded the doors shut.
They don't subscribe to the propertarian patriarchal norms that they sold to the public, except
for appearances, which are often cited as pretexts for ejection from the halls of power. They
owe the public cultural shibboleths no real honor, especially not within their private practices.
They are not obligated to enact the stories they write or take to heart the submission they counsel
to us. They didn't get to group hegemony by competing.
I see the paralogic. They're American. Therefore, adversity and competition is the normal posture
for every interaction. Therefore, everything is a fair contest which they won fair and square
against us. Which suggests that they probably subscribe more perfectly to the same alleged social
"norms" they impose on us. And therein lies the error: they don't judge themselves by the norms
they sold (or failed to sell) to us.
If they were as crippled by someone having fun without them when there is plenty of fun to
be had, there would be no ruling class.
on the other hand they have more time and money to gain actually useful skills than wage slaves
EVER will. A variant of the rich get richer phenomena which seems to be how things usually work
out, rather than the poor getting even as mostly happens only in morality tales. Now get to work
and shut up about it!
I'd count the Zuck's purchase of 700 acres (similar acreage to Central Park) as a bolt-hole.
And peter Thiel's in New Zealand. Guess the help will be relegated to the Blueseed floating city
Jet = high time preference
Amel 64= low time preference, in fact not even so relevant to insist on staying on course to NZ.
http://www.amel.fr/en/amel-64/
W. Somerset Maugham's retelling of the tale (1933) "An Appointment in Samarra" comes to mind:
There was a merchant in Bagdad who sent his servant to market to buy provisions and in a little
while the servant came back, white and trembling, and said, Master, just now when I was in the
marketplace I was jostled by a woman in the crowd and when I turned I saw it was Death that jostled
me.
She looked at me and made a threatening gesture, now, lend me your horse, and I will ride away
from this city and avoid my fate. I will go to Samarra and there Death will not find me.
The merchant lent him his horse, and the servant mounted it, and he dug his spurs in its flanks
and as fast as the horse could gallop he went. Then the merchant went down to the marketplace
and he saw me standing in the crowd and he came to me and said, Why did you make a threatening
gesture to my servant when you saw him this morning?
That was not a threatening gesture, I said, it was only a start of surprise. I was astonished
to see him in Bagdad, for I had an appointment with him tonight in Samarra.
Examine the mentality of planning for a "collapse."
The hedge fund managers above all are escaping to rural areas, with clean water and air. They've
planned on how to get by with less for themselves and their families.
The article also spoke of bunkers of under ground apartment complexes, silos, etc that would be
enclaves for communities of wealthy citizens where they would ration, learn how to ration, share,
get by with less.
They all think it will be temporary while the ignorant masses destroy each other without their
surperior leadership. They imagine being able to return and begin the hard work of returning things
to the way they were, with themselves back in elite positions.
Just think. If they could imagine maybe getting by on less and used that sense of community
they expect to magically develop in their bunkers, there wouldn't be amy "collapse" to fear anyway.
If they could imagine their clean water and air natural retreats, with food, are simple things
the rest of the planet would like to enjoy and should be able to enjoy without exploitation, there
wouldn't be any collapse to fear.
So not only will their getaways be big failures, but the imagined return to the world after
the crisis is also naive.
Not only would things not be the same, you'd have to be a special kind of idoit or psycopath
to think anything would still be hunky dory with a return to the status quo..
if you survive the carnage they imagine in some kind of collapse.
"you'd have to be a special kind of idiot or psychopath"
The French aristocracy was pretty surprised in 1789 how unprepared they were. I'd tend
to put them in the former group. Our oligarchy? Definitely psychopaths.
The 0.01 percenters would much rather create doomsday bunkers than fix their own greed and
power lust. I guess they know themselves well.
I could poke so many what if holes into their daydream scenarios. Hours of fun since their
most of their scenarios depend on order and business as usual ultimately being restored. I guess
they learned nothing from what typically happens to refugees regardless of their class and they
assume that the "problem" will be localized instead of global and that their assets will be worth
more with them alive than dead.
It is impossible to convince someone afflicted with the greatest pandemic in human history
- Greed - that they are better off having a smaller % of a growing pie than a larger % of a stagnant
or shrinking pie.
The epicenters for the global pandemic are London, New York, and Washington D.C., though not
necessarily in that order.
Wait, I thought Trump was going to revoke federal funding for "sanctuary cities", as well as
the governor of Texas at the state level. Oh, wrong group?
This elite fear and their related actions have been "out there" for years. Puzzling me is what
has changed to elevate this topic in their Davos 2017 discussions?
The current hedgies should watch Adam Curtis's 4 part docu "The MayFair Set". It's on utube.
Or, if 4 hours is too long, they could watch just part 2, notice James Goldsmith, and then watch
part 4 starting at about minute 23. Another prepper. Why all the paranoia and prepping?
Maybe they should just stop destroying companies and pay taxes. They might sleep better if
they felt they were part of the country instead of pirates living apart. imo.
Lavish follies apparently become tiresome or expensive to maintain or lonely or in some other
way unappealing after they're built. So now one can rent a villa at Goldsmith's Mexican hideaway,
for a considerable sum of course.
They can never actually "go Galt" because they need us. If I remember correctly, Galt was some
sort of industrialist who built and manufactured actual things. What do most of these billionaires
provide us? It's difficult to imagine a hedge fund going very well after the apocalypse. Will
people continue updating their facebook pages when the world collapses? Can I paypal my tribal
wasteland overlord his tribute after our government has collapsed?
I suppose they'll just sitting around looking at all bank statements, bored out of their minds
waiting for the power to come back on.
It isn't just elite anxiety, this has been playing out among the lower classes as well. It's
not just prepper reality shows either; we've had almost 10 years now of zombie apocalypse themed
entertainment and a general revival of the post-apocalypse genre across multiple entertainment
platforms.
We know the empire is collapsing, we just wont acknowledge it out loud.
[Reddit CEO Steve] Huffman has calculated that, in the event of a disaster, he would seek
out some form of community: "Being around other people is a good thing. I also have this somewhat
egotistical view that I'm a pretty good leader. I will probably be in charge, or at least not
a slave, when push comes to shove."
Yeah, your skills running a content aggregate site that's become a haven for the alt-right,
that's going to be the things the masses will be looking for in a leader in a post-apocalyptic
society.
What if the guy fueling the jet pours some sugar into the tank? What if the guy who drives
the fuel truck to the airstrip gets "lost" on the day of the apocalypse? What if your driver on
the way to the airport pulls a gun on you? You better get a jumbo jet to fit everyone on that
could spoil your plan. It'll be like the end of the "Jerk". It is just terrible to have to rely
on people and to need all these badges of affluence. Why can't a rich soul be a rapacious rich
jerk, in peace?
What are the roots that clutch, what branches grow
Out of this stony rubbish? Son of man,
You cannot say, or guess, for you know only
A heap of broken images, where the sun beats,
And the dead tree gives no shelter, the cricket no relief,
And the dry stone no sound of water. Only
There is shadow under this red rock,
(Come in under the shadow of this red rock),
And I will show you something different from either
Your shadow at morning striding behind you
Or your shadow at evening rising to meet you;
I will show you fear in a handful of dust.
These stories really make me hope that the collapse that these people are preparing for is
a flu pandemic. In that case, no one is going anywhere as the first thing that will be done by
states is close the borders to slow down transmission of the virus. Good luck getting to New Zealand
then!
Also, let's not forget the Archdruid's (accurate) contention that the (presumably very well
armed) security staff will be eager to hunt down the elites after society collapses.
Charles Hugh Smith in his book Survival+ however does offer some good advice for elites who
want to survive collapse indefinitely: find a tight-knit community and immediately use all the
money and resources at your disposal to make sure that they're self-sustaining, well-armed and
grateful. Then learn some useful skills like playing musical instruments or blacksmithing and
move on in. Maybe someone should send these poor deluded bunker builders a copy!
"People of privilege will always risk their complete destruction rather than surrender any
material part of their advantage. Intellectual myopia, often called stupidity, is no doubt a reason.
But the privileged also feel that their privileges, however egregious they may seem to others,
are a solemn, basic, God-given right. The sensitivity of the poor to injustice is a trivial thing
compared with that of the rich.
- John Kenneth Galbraith
"The Age of Uncertainty" 1977
If this is a true quote, it does indeed make the blood come out one's ears that Galbraith could
have said it. It is so wrong that its vast wrongness can only be explained by knowing that the
guy was an economist by training. If he had bothered to learn any history–any history at all,
whatsoever, in any way, of any kind–he would never have been able to spout that inane nugget of
anti-truth.
Let's see: August 4, 1789. Just one notable one, among about 47 bajillion counterexamples to
bonehead Galbraith's alleged quotation.
Why don't they bail on the rest of the world now? They might as well get while the getting
is good, and the rest of the world will benefit from their absence. Seems like a win/win to me.
Ahem. This is part of the reason that some rich folks (*COUGH* Elon Musk *COUGH*) is pushing
so hard for (rich) people to pony up and help pay for a one-way trip to Mars. A bunch of pampered
rich people bailing out on Earth to go to the ULTIMATE gated community on Mars where they can
claim all the land from their feet to the horizon.
A pipe dream, of course. Such an endeavor would be ABSOLUTELY dependent upon continued upkeep
and support from Earth, AND Mars is NOT hospitable, at all Nonetheless, the impulse is there
for all to see: use your accumulated (unearned) wealth to get away from the Earth you have raped
to get where you are, before it's too late! Take all your marbles and just up and leave everyone
else to cook in the sewage and heat you've left behind. But at least your pillaging made it possible
for you and a select few others to get out.
As for fancy bunkers like converted missile silos. Note: as a veteran of the cold war and all
that nuke war shit, I KNOW how those things work (and don't work). Fancy air filters on missile
silos will filter out radiation, biological, and MOST chemical agents, but they will not, they
CANNOT, filter out oxygen displacing chemicals (carbon monoxide, halon, ammonia, etc). Some cluster
of rich douchebags and their immediate families think they can hide out for up to 5 years in a
luxury converted missile silo. Well I will just pull a car up to one of your air intakes, run
a line from my exhaust pipe to your intake, and pump your luxury bunker full of carbon monoxide.
Sleep the sleep of the dead, motherf*ckers.
BTW – many of the dystopian authors of the 40s, 50s, and 60s served in the military in WW II.
It is not an accident that they wrote these types of novels and short stories. They had observed
dystopian societies and their outcomes personally. I think the current 1% think they can control
the future in the same way that many of them thought in the 1780s and 1910-1945.
In Jack Womack's Dryco novels, Dryco (a kind of uber-Walmart-cum-Raytheon that owns everything)
becomes worried about CEO safety and covertly engineers a citizen "rebellion" on Long Island,
necessitating a permanently-stationed US military in Manhattan, to protect the elite. The Dryco
inner circle begins moving operations north, to the Bronx and Westchester County, to stay ahead
of rising sea levels. Those books were written mostly in the late '80s/early '90s but still resonate.
Sarcasm on. Hedge fund managers anticipate They're so good at that. That's why hedge fund yields for pension funds are so much better
than other fund yields for pension funds. (8^)) Sarcasm off.
Perhaps they have been reading too much economic doomer porn?
Just three months ago anybody who even considered voting for Sanders, Green, or Trump was a
selfish fool who just wanted to see the world burn. For the sake of our fellow man – consider
the children! – we were encouraged to fall in line to prevent our society from collapsing into
war and economic ruin. If only we'd have know that some of the wealthiest and most influential
people in the country were literally bracing themselves for the apocalypse with absolutely no
intention of helping a single soul escape or doing a thing to prevent the disaster. I guess if
you're rich enough it's OK not to give a shit about destroying the world.
It's important that as many people as possible read the NYT article to see just how crazy and
how horrifyingly self-serving the 1% really is. The idea that anybody will need bunkers or private
airstrips is stupid as hell and straight out of a zombie movie, but it's a perfect illustration
of how little these people care about the world around them.
Spread the word. This is the time to bail. Donald Trump is President. He is at war with corporate
media moguls. Even Bloomberg published an article on America's carnage. The suicide rate of women
under 75 is increasing. The cover-up of the neoliberal looting is collapsing. The millions of
refugees flooding Europe can't be hidden. Blaming Russia doesn't work. A world war is an extinction
event.
Who will be on the last plane out of East Hampton?
I don't understand why these pampered, self-worshipping, self-entitled rich scumbags think
that New Zealanders will welcome them with open arms if SHTF.
If the US were to go tits up the
way they fear. to such an extent that they actually felt the need to flee, the entire world would
get hit hard too. These same clowns talk about globalization and how the world is, and NEEDS to
be, interconnected. Well, you don't get to have it both ways. The US is a huge economic chunk
of the world. If it bites it, then so will a LOT of other nations, and New Zealand is not some
self-sufficient paradise that would be left untouched.
The LEGITIMATE people, the LEGITIMATE citizens of New Zealand, wouldn't take these leeches
in with open arms, strewing their walking paths with flowers and candy, if they abandon the US
in a collapse THAT THEY WERE LARGELY RESPONSIBLE FOR. They cannot run away and escape their culpability
and the fruits of their unending greed and selfishness.
Yes, that's the flaw. New Zealand would be great for their purposes if not for the small problem
that it's full of New Zealanders. The society is strongly egalitarian, much more so than the US,
and has different core values (less about freedom and more about fairness). If these people had
what it takes to be New Zealanders they would not need to leave the USA in the first place. Failing
that, they are going to be constantly under siege if they move here, in a figurative sense and
possibly a literal one if they try to engage in the same kind of behaviour that required them
to flee the USA.
Thiel's land purchase in the South Island has been front page news lately, along with the news
that he didn't have to comply with foreign investment criteria because he is a NZ citizen (which
just raised the question of how and why he received citizenship).
deep down they know they are a bunch of grifters who have produced nothing of any real value.
some of them are deluded but many know it has all been one big debt fueled scam, involving predatory
behavior (pirate equity) and risk free gambling (hedge scum managers, you lose and they still
win) further abetted by tax avoidance and other shifty activity.
[ "What does that really tell us about our system? It's a very odd thing. You're basically
seeing that the people who've been the best at reading the tea leaves-the ones with the most resources,
because that's how they made their money-are now the ones most preparing to pull the rip cord
and jump out of the plane." ]
The "Peak Oil Doomers" know very well why hedge fund jack offs are " buying airstrips and
farms "
"supposedly" (so take w/salt), the entire food supply of the Northeast flows through 4 highways
(I 90/80/76/95--sounds plausible). Ain't too hard to seize those chokepoints and disrupt the entire
Northeast.
Similarly the crossings of the Missouri and Mississippi Rivers also are major chokepoints for
our just-in-time way of life.
We've all seen the empty bread shelves when 12″ of snow are forecast. I imagine that would
be nothing in the 1:1,000,000 chance civilization truly goes pear-shaped.
Prime Minister Bill English has defended a decision to grant citizenship to American tech billionaire
Peter Thiel, saying "a little bit of flexibility" is useful when it comes to citizenship laws.
(he didn't meet the criteria for citizenship under the law)
English said there needed to be a balance between giving everyone a fair chance of citizenship,
and encouraging those who would make a positive difference to New Zealand.
"If people come here and invest and get into philanthropy and are supportive of New Zealand,
then we're better off for their interest in our country, and as a small country at the end of
the world, that's not a bad thing.
(but he has money and spread a lot of it around and we like that)
NZ First leader Winston Peters' suggestion that the Government was selling citizenship
was "ridiculous", English said.
(even though everything I just said appears to confirm it)
"... Originally published at the Institute for New Economic Thinking website ..."
"... One truck parked on the runway, or a large concrete block dumped there has just shut down the entire airport for the private jets fleeing or arriving to pick up the exiters in anything other than a helicopter. ..."
"... Look at what happened to Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin (paranoid), Hussein, Gaddafi the list goes on These people are delusional and believe they are above the system ..."
Posted on
January 25, 2017
by
Yves Smith
Yves here. A former private equity partner mentioned the New Yorker story on
0.1% bunkering. He noticed how they focused on the private jet pilot as a point
of vulnerability, that he might fly his family out and leave them stranded. So
the approach is to assure him that his relatives get seats on the plane too.
Johnson told writer Evan Osnos of the mounting anxiety he had encountered
among hedge-fund managers and other wealthy Americans he knew. "More and more
were saying, 'You've got to have a private plane," Johnson said. "You have to
assure that the pilot's family will be taken care of, too. They have to be on
the plane.' "
Osnos writes: "By January, 2015, Johnson was sounding the alarm: the
tensions produced by acute income inequality were becoming so pronounced that
some of the world's wealthiest people were taking steps to protect themselves.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Johnson told the audience,
'I know hedge-fund managers all over the world who are buying airstrips and
farms in places like New Zealand because they think they need a getaway.' "
Johnson bemoaned the lack of a "spirit of stewardship" and openness to more
aggressively redistributive tax policy among the wealthy.
"Twenty-five hedge-fund managers make more money than all of the
kindergarten teachers in America combined," he told the New Yorker. "Being one
of those twenty-five doesn't feel good. I think they've developed a heightened
sensitivity."
If anything, Osnos wrote, inequality is widening, noting recent statistics
from the National Bureau of Economic Research that showed that while incomes
for the top 1 percent of Americans have nearly tripled, half of the population
was earning at the same level they did in 1980, comparing America's wealth gap
to that seen in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
"If we had a more equal distribution of income, and much more money and
energy going into public school systems, parks and recreation, the arts, and
health care, it could take an awful lot of sting out of society," Johnson said.
"We've largely dismantled those things."
He saw elite anxiety as an indicator America's social crisis.
"Why do people who are envied for being so powerful appear to be so afraid?"
Johnson said. "What does that really tell us about our system? It's a very odd
thing. You're basically seeing that the people who've been the best at reading
the tea leaves-the ones with the most resources, because that's how they made
their money-are now the ones most preparing to pull the rip cord and jump out
of the plane."
Not to be too snarky this early in the morning but:
"Twenty-five hedge-fund managers make more money than all of the
kindergarten teachers in America combined," he told the New Yorker.
"Being one of those twenty-five doesn't feel good. I think they've developed
a heightened sensitivity."
If it does not feel good then stop doing it.
As presently structured the kindergarden teachers lack the power to upend
the political order and to create something equal. Despite widespread support
for better schools the political parties compete to crapify them
for
the benefit of those hedge fund managers
.
If one or two those managers chose to place a damn phone call they could
change that, they could make a more equal society, they could reduce the odds
that they will be up against a wall.
Amen! This issue drives a nail through the conservative ideal of personal
responsibility and self manufacturing. If your poor then it's your fault.
You're too stupid, lazy, etc. to succeed. But if your rich and hated, well
then, you're just a victim of the system and institutions that created you.
This reminds me of a comic I recently read. Enjoy.
Hint to everyone. The rich guys worried about this are the
1%'s version of "preppers". 90% of the 1% have no contingency
plan whatsoever.
What they do have is second homes. Or third homes.
Florida/California/Arizona for the winter, and
Wyoming/Colorado/Montana during the summer.
Many of these places are geographically isolated, with a
local population base highly motivated to protect their stuff
from the Zombie Apocalypse. And hostile to the wretched refuse
from the coasts and metroplexes. Not to mention heavily armed.
Yeah, a smart leader of the wretched refuse could lay siege
to these places. But I suspect they will be too busy protecting
their own turf, rather than going a couple of hundred miles out
in the boonies to look for trouble.
These aren't 1%. They are 0.1%. And Omidyar is big on
this, he has multiple homes well stocked in all sorts of
isolated places.
You are missing that the New Yorker and Johnson says this
is pretty prevalent in the 0.1%. And these people have better
access to information than the rest of us and many of them
have made their money by making astute bets about the future.
If you ascribe to Łobaczewski's
Political Ponerology
, or even
the Five Percenters
, these super rich individuals aren't normal. They
don't think like most of the population.
It doesn't take much to know that the systems we've created are designed
to promote and reward an unempathetic person. And while I'm not always
convinced entirely by Łobaczewski's words, or the five percenters, one gets
the feeling that the twenty five hedge fund managers in question are
incapable of thinking any other way.
Actually
we
didn't create the systems we sat on our butts and
the unempathetic people took advantage. The problem with high-functioning
psychopaths is, as we all know, they can fake normal for necessary
stretches of time.
It's more insidious than that. Increasing wealth decreases empathy.
The poor are much more likely to care for and help their neighbors
than the rich.
The ability to pull the rip cord and bail to a hopefully safer place
makes you think of the need to take the pilot's family, not the
neighbor's.
And yet even guys like this Johnson fellow can't seem to drop that
last line of hogwash - that these rich people are best at "reading the
tea leaves" - rather than that they were just lucky in one or two
decisions or friendships. Give me a break. The rich are rich because
they are lucky and immoral. That's really it. Until the people fully
learn this lesson to their bones this country will continue its
decline. Good news is most of the millennials seem to have largely
been born knowing it.
Why do they think the places they are going to will be immune from the
upheaval? A lot of people leave places thinking they will be safe in the new
place, and then the disorder spreads and hits them again. Many refugees in WW
II were turned into refugees multiple times (if they survived) – many of them
had started out in the elite and wealthy in their country. Similar things are
happening in the Middle East now.
They also are betting that they can identify the moment in which to leave
and will be able to do so safely. The odds of doing that are similar to calling
the day of the big plunge in the stock market a week in advance. Airports are
usually one of the first places that organized rebellions or coups seek to
control, so getting there through rioting crowds will not necessarily solve
their escape route issue. As many evacuation plans (e.g. New Orleans in
Katrina) have shown, events have the ability to confound plans.
I assume that their concerns about inequality and anarchy is why so many are
lobbying to destabilize Social Security and Medicare in order to erase all hope
for the bottom 80%, so that they will believe that anarchy and rebellion is the
only solution. The creation of anarchy and rebellion is generally the result of
intentional acts by the elite to marginalize much of the population. It is a
choice, not an inevitability. But it is probably like teen sex, where they know
they aren't supposed to do it but they just can't stop themselves. Just say NO
elites! You are supposed to be able to control those greed impulses. Inequality
celibacy is the solution.
If America goes "mad max" the rest of the civilized world isn't going to
be far behind. The likely landing sites for those private jets are in
Europe, Canada or other G-7 type of nations.
Unless you have enough money to buy a private island, and hire a security
force to protect you, chances of staying immune are slim, IMO. Few will be
able to pull this off.
The idea of hiring other people to protect you implies that you have
something of value that those with primitive power cannot take from you
when they please. I'm not sure what "currency" that would be in a post
apocalyptic world.
Authoritarians look for "leadership" . if you can fake that then
its not hard to get people to protect your "wealth", whatever that
happens to consist of, for a share of it and power over those below.
Read the New Yorker article! These rich geniuses are stocking up on
gold
and bitcoin!
. HAH. As if bitcoin would be worth squat in a
collapse situation.
"Let me just plug in my laptop so I can get to my digital bitcoin
vault and pay you oh. Uh would you accept my daughter as payment?"
Yes, all that bitcoin is going to be really useful when you need
medical services from one of the few doctors left, or when the
locals show up with guns at your compound wanting some of your
grain.
Elites are not all equal if the system implodes and consumers can't
spend, the rich who got that way from non-essential consumer spending
will fall faster than those who got rich on staples. My bet is that if
times get tough, these elite will stab each other in the back.
I heard someone say making money was as addictive as heroine, cocaine
etc. So, "just say NO" may not be as easy as it sounds. ( One day, we may
see Money Rehab Centers in New Zealand? or Davos?)
Well, jail those addicted to money the way we already jail those
addicted to the drugs you mention. As an added bonus, while they're
locked up they can make some scratch from the increase in value of their
private prison stock holdings . . . off shore, of course.
NZ is food self-sufficient (it's a net food exporter), energy
self-sufficient, and far enough for anyone to invade easily – especially if
you assume "stone age"/"mad max" scenario (i.e. you don't get there easily
like you might to Oz from Indonesia). If you get a large farm in NZ, you can
become pretty much self-sufficient reasonably easily.
NZ population is about 4.5m, on area of the size of Great Britain (the
island, not the nation). Most of that is concentrated in a few cities – say
more than half is in the North Island, which is the smaller one. But even in
North Island there is a LOT of space.
So, NZ can be the perfect bunker for a squillionaire.
sure, assuming these squillionaires know how to be self-sufficient.
How long has it been since any of these rich and "powerful" actually
cooked a meal? Or changed a light bulb? Or done routine maintenance on
anything? Self sufficiency ain't easy. I'm reminded of the elite
civilization in Hitchhiker's Guide that all died of infection from dirty
phones after they shipped all the worthless mouths, including phone
cleaners, off planet. 50 pesos says these New Zealand-bound richies
starve to death when they can't figure out how to use the microwave to
cook their foie gras. Good riddance.
Sure, there's a lot of them who are pampered beyond the kings of
yore. But quite a few them spend their time doing stuff like
wilderness trekking/survival, even running their own ranches etc. What
part of the squillionaire population that is is hard to say, but the
hedgies I spoke to in 2007/8 (of which most were sub-suillionaires
TBH, mere centa-millionairies) were well aware of this and some of
them even too to doing agri uni courses just for that. I met more
people who knew about (for example) permaculture between those people
than any other group.
Ha, marvelous! I find the fact that they've been fearfully
looking over their shoulder since at least 2007/2008 delightful.
Make Elites Great Again indeed.
And I think we would all be well served if they went back and
re-read (i'm assuming they don't spend a lot of time practicing)
their Holmgren and Mollison. Permaculture doesn't mean what they
think it means
This is true. Look at Oliver Queen! Seriously, though, the
hilarious thing from the article is Steve Huffman saying he's
likely to be a leader after the apocalypse, because he is a
"leader" now. Sure, tell it to Trotsky when you meet him in the
next world, buddy.
By the way, having myself made so many errors using SI units,
some in this very locale, I will still submit that people with
hundreds of millions of dollars might properly be labeled
hectomillionaires.
In this "mad max" scenario, who will control the thousands of nuclear
bombs around the world? In addition, will the "squillionaire" be safe on
the island of New Zealand after they brought about conditions leading up
to chaos due to their endless greed? Wouldn't it be more likely that the
conclusion would be to drop the first bombs in the locations where the
wealthy congregate?
Although I understand the psychology behind wealth acquisition, it
still amazes me that someone would rather see chaos in the world (and
even in their local environment) before they would give up their wealth.
One truck parked on the runway, or a large concrete block dumped there
has just shut down the entire airport for the private jets fleeing or
arriving to pick up the exiters in anything other than a helicopter.
May I suggest a name for a new political party?
"The Guillotine Party"
In 2007-8 the trend was go get a sailing boat, full of provisions,
moored in driving distance. Not so conspicious, doesn't rely on large
infrastructure (it's not just take-off airport, it's also air-control,
refuelling stops etc.). Of course, you must know how to sail it (which
lot o hedgies do) and navigate (which fewer can do w/o GPS).
The 1%ers will be long gone before the zombies get the news that the S
has HTF.
They won't even need to leave the USA to find "safe havens" The
Chinese 1% have figured this out already, as real estate sales of the
West Coast should indicate.
The Midwest/Plains state farmers are much more likely to sell food to
1%ers in isolated mountain/desert enclaves, than the coast-based wretched
refuse.
Face it. The "Zombie Apocalypse" is a win-win for the 1%ers. Not that
I like it. But you gotta remember that the Apocalypse will burn itself
out in a relatively short time. It won't be the 1%ers who will get
hammered; the 1%ers will throw the suburban 10%ers to the wolves. And
even if they start at step zero on Day One, they have tons of resources
to develop a plan.
Look at the Paulson/Bloomberg/I forget who else county by county
forecast of temps in 2040.
The Upper Midwest will turn into a bake oven.
And they want NZ for the self sufficiency and isolation. If
outsiders are trading with you, they know where you are and can take
what you have. That is what they fear over all.
Look at what happened to Mussolini, Hitler, Stalin (paranoid), Hussein,
Gaddafi the list goes on
These people are delusional and believe they are above the system
Look at all the Industrialists behind Hitler, almost none of which
were tried for their crimes and most kept their wealth (that is still
around today).
Reality is a lot harsher than most realize. Most revolutions end with
little change; or, change that simply invokes a new circle of elite. Look
at all the coups & revolutions in Brazil. It went nowhere. One oppressive
regime replaced by another.
The Elites may not yet realize how un-exceptional they are. But what
they do realize is that in the Age of Information, everyone else knows
how un-exceptional they are. We also know how much EXCEPTION they get
from the system which is basically everything important: taxes,
healthcare, and most importantly, the law.
I'm just waiting for the Black Swan moment. My prediction is simple:
the Millenials will eventually near their mid thirties en-masse in the
next decade. They will begin to realize, if they haven't already, that
not only did the banks cause and get away with one of the largest bubbles
in history, but the banks will also get all the realstate owned by the
baby boomers that are already up to their eyes in debt, and that their
children (Millenials) wont be able to pay off in their entire lifetime
due to lower socio-economic standards, student loans, available full-time
jobs, etc.
Essentially, the Elites of the Baby Boomer generation, that love to
constantly illustrate how dumb the Millenials are, already sowed the
destruction of their own system. They killed affordable healthcare. They
killed affordable housing, and thus forced the rentier economy. They
killed affordable education. They killed reasonable taxation. Thus, the
current Millenial is stuck between massively rising costs of living and
little to no availability of well paying jobs.
They killed the heart of consumerism and are now, some decades later,
realizing it.
I've had hedge fund clients who have been prepping for 15 years. They always
pestered me for info because of my military and certified redneck background.
I've always thought that people in small rural farm communities have a better
chance than 1%ers with all their capital. You need a bit of arable land, water
source, and the ability to band with friends, neighbors, and family to defend
it with arms. Nothing that sophisticated.
I suspect the real deficiency for the 1%ers is not bunkers, planes, and gas
masks . it's not having enough true comrades if the s really does hit the f.
Not to mention that the 1%'ers have no real skills. I doubt they pay
attention to the passing of seasons, understand animal breeding or how
plants grow, or how to talk with normal human beings without beginning with
either an adversarial or a monetary relationship. They have never had
calluses. They've never done backbreaking work in the rain or snow. Many of
them probably haven't driven themselves anywhere in years.
New Zealand is an extremely rugged place. Farming in New Zealand has got
to be tough. Hope they like mutton! NZ also imports a lot of their fossil
fuels as well as their computers, machinery, cars, etc. Can you see a
financial officer trying to seat a plowshare to work the side of a mountain?
I can't.
I reckon they think they will hire/buy someone to do those things for
them. They've always been able to, right? "Come work for me doing these
things and I'll make sure you're fed and have a roof over your head." Or
they think "how hard can it really be?" because the dumb serfs do it.
maybe you underestimate the 1% the way some supposedly underestimate
Trump. They might be tougher and more skilled than you think. But what
should not be underestimated is the cruelty and lack of basic morality
represented in the 1% prepper mentality.
Some rich no doubt have decent survivability skills.
The thing is, they need allies. In a collapse situation, it's not
"every man for himself", it is "every community for itself". They
would have to bribe a large segment of the Kiwi population if they
flee to NZ or wherever they are hiding. Typically if somewhere
collapses, then the gangs take over. Without a decent community you
are helpless against them.
If the US melts down, that would lead to global economic meltdown.
New Zealand would not be very far behind.
Compounding that, the rich are often ruthless. They may be mentally
competent, but ruthless. They will alienate locals if that happens.
Without an entire community that is capable of survival skills, their
odds aren't good. They need the locals on their side. They will stand
out if they try to "blend in".
New Zealand, although inequality has risen, once idealized itself
as an egalitarian culture. As far as the other destinations like
Canada and much of Europe is also a lot more economically egalitarian
in its outlook. Hint: The rest of the West is not as brainwashed as
the US is by right wing economic propaganda.
One very big danger is that a collapse may worsen inequality. A
good example might be Argentina and their debt crisis.
The 1%ers who grew up or live in in BFE will do okay. They may
not even need to leave town.
The NEC (especially NYC) and Left Coast/Silicon Valley D##kweeds
are the ones who will need to head to the South Pacific. The
wretched refuse knows full well who was behind selling the
country/jobs to China.
Volunteered at my local school to build stage sets. Some hedge fund
hotshot who drove an S Class Mercedes sneeringly assisted me.
I handed him a Makita drill with a Phillips bit and showed him how to put
3″ screws into the 2x4s to connect them. He dismissed me with that "I
make tens of millions and I can do it" look.
After he stripped the heads on a bunch of screws and the drill buckled
on him a bunch of times, I offered to give up the chop saw and do the
screwing. He persevered until he put a screw through his hand.
The "I refuse to scream because I make millions" look on his face was
worth the day's labor.
I find it amusing to think that close knit rural communities (well armed,
know the land) are going to let any outsiders without local ties get to
their precious redoubt. They might be getting picked up in armor plated
vehicles but a well placed large oak tree felled across the road is going to
deny entry. Helicopters are vulnerable to small arms fire. Will the guards
be locals or will their families be inside like the pilots? Seems like a lot
of operational security holes or the need for a substantial amount of extra
resources for all the support staff. Unless they are doing this in their own
rural hometown (and hopefully haven't burned bridges on their way to
fortune), I would file this under wishful thinking.
The elite plan on staying on bolt holes while well armed rural
communities will war with each other. Should be fun, sneak attacks to
salt the land, poison the livestock, dump e-coli in the water.
If you want a rough historical instance of all this, I recommend
Gregory of Tours, "History of the Franks". What tended to happen was that
the "Kings" lost their power to the Mayors of the Palace (as they were
the dudes who 'implemented' the Kings wishes).
"You need a bit of arable land, water source, and the ability to band
with friends, neighbors, and family to defend it with arms. Nothing that
sophisticated."
These are the basis of all successful social systems and what nations, at
their best, used to do. The Neoliberal order has seen states reduced to
platforms for wealth extraction and the NeoLib winners can't imagine a world
without societies to loot because their own looting is all thats ever seemed
good to them.
The idea of creating surplus value for a community and continually
improving the prospects of that community over time isn't even a thinkable
thought for them.
My knowledge of high net worth individuals working on safe havens goes
back about 10 years so a little less than Gilford.
I know of compounds being purchased/built with full sets of facilities
taking into account all of the security issues that the best experts could
envision and far beyond what anyone has mentioned here. We are talking
hardened facilities, which are self sufficient, arsenals, housing for
support staff like well trained security staff, agricultural expertise,
mechanical expertise, etc And their families. And being located within
support distance of other HNW individuals who are doing the same thing.
I won't go on other than to say these folks are not stupid and can think
of all the issues quite well themselves or hire those with the expertise to
do so. And they have the money and time to make it work.
You still need to have staff that are loyal to you for intrinsic
reasons, not because you are paying them. Society goes "Lord of the
Flies" very, very quickly in the absence of intrinsic social structures.
These types of compounds would become tribal very quickly if they are
largely cut off from the rest of the world. Some of the 1% would thrive,
many would probably be taken over by their staff.
The failures in Afghanistan and Iraq were because it is difficult to
impose order on tribes from the outside. It has to be organic if it is to
last. The leader must be respected (or feared) by the community or it is
replaced, often violently. Just having money in a world where money has
lost much of its meaning isn't enough.
Staff will never stay loyal. Water systems, food systems, air
systems are all vulnerable. Only 1%ers with robots, no staff? Robots
are vulnerable.
What's odd is they may never be able to reproduce as a bratty
teenager could have an outsize impact. If the theory would be to
quarantine certain tolerated populations, it would requiring all
individuals and the individuals are still vulnerable.
The currency will be shelter, food and privileges not paper
contracts, paper or digital money. In any group, there will be the
sociopaths who manipulate and steal more resources for themselves and
others who won't will punish that behavior.
"... Krugman dislikes Trump (as do I). He seems motivated to find fault with Trump's policies. In
fuzzy things like economics and their intersection with politics it is challenging, and perhaps actually
impossible, for most of us to remain balanced. If someone as smart and knowledgeable as Paul Krugman
subconsciously decides to dislike a policy, his brain is more than clever enough to invent reasonable
economic arguments against the policy. ..."
"... Cognitive bias. Using % of jobs that are manufacturing is relative to what was happening in
other job areas: like Reagan building up the military and civil service to buy weapons a tiny part of
the growth in that sector was manufacturing. ..."
"... I understand the textbook story is the Fed raises rates when the budget deficit increases.
I am not sure if the empirical data supports that though. Perhaps the Fed cares more about inflation
than budget deficits and perhaps budget deficits do not directly result in inflation? But if that is
correct, what is the basis for Professor Krugman's assertion that Trump's budget will push up interest
rates? ..."
"... It's like how Greenspan and Rubin told Clinton he had to drop his middle class spending bill
in order to focus on deficit reduction. Greenspan was threatening to raise rates and Clinton bent the
knee to the "independent" Fed. ..."
"... Krugman should remember that "Integrity, once sold, is difficult to repurchase - even at 10x
the original sales price." ..."
Reagan, Trump, and Manufacturing : It's hard to focus on ordinary economic analysis amidst this
political apocalypse. But ... like it or not the progress of
CASE NIGHTMARE
ORANGE may depend on how the economy does. So, what is actually likely to happen to trade and
manufacturing over the next few years?
As it happens, we have what looks like an unusually good model in the Reagan years... - it's not
part of the Reagan legend, but the import quota on Japanese automobiles was one of the biggest protectionist
moves of the postwar era.
I'm a bit uncertain about the actual fiscal stance of Trumponomics: deficits will surely blow
up, but I won't believe in the infrastructure push until I see it, and given savage cuts in aid to
the poor it's not entirely clear that there will be
net stimulus . But suppose there is. Then what?
Well, what happened in the Reagan years was "twin deficits": the budget deficit pushed up interest
rates, which caused a strong dollar, which caused a bigger trade deficit, mainly in manufactured
goods (which are still most of what's tradable.) This led to an accelerated decline in the industrial
orientation of the U.S. economy:
And people did notice. ...
Again, this happened despite substantial protectionism.
So Trump_vs_deep_state will probably follow a similar course; it will actually shrink manufacturing despite
the big noise made about saving a few hundred jobs here and there.
On the other hand, by then the BLS may be thoroughly politicized, commanded to report good news
whatever happens.
Forced Japan to accept restraints on auto exports. The agreement set total Japanese auto exports
at 1.68 million
vehicles in 1981-82, 8 percent below 1980 exports. Two years later the level was permitted to
rise to 1.85 million.(33)
Clifford Winston of the Brookings Institution found that the import limits have actually cost
jobs in the U.S. auto
industry by making it possible for the sheltered American automakers to raise prices and limit
production. In 1984,
Winston writes in Blind Intersection? Policy and the Automobile Industry, 32,000 jobs were lost,
U.S. production fell
by 300,000 units, and profits for U.S. firms increased $8.9 billion. The quotas have also made
the Japanese firms
potentially more formidable rivals because they have begun building assembly plants in the United
States.(34) They
also shifted production to larger cars, introducing to American firms competition they did not
have before the quotas
were created. In 1984, it was estimated that higher prices for domestic and imported cars cost
consumers $2.2 billion a
year.(35) At the height of the dollar's exchange rate with the yen in 1984-85, the quotas were
costing American
consumers the equivalent of $11 billion a year
The Reagan Record on Trade: Rhetoric vs. Reality
By Sheldon L. Richman
Executive Summary
When President Reagan imposed a 100 percent tariff on selected Japanese electronics in 1987,
he and the press gave the impression that this was an act of desperation. Pictured was a long-forbearing
president whose patience was exhausted by the recalcitrant and conniving Japanese. After trying
for years to elicit some fairness out of them, went the story, the usually good-natured president
had finally had enough.
When newspapers and television networks announced the tariffs, the media reminded the public
that such restraints were imposed by a staunch free trader. The less-than-subtle message was that
if "Free Trader" Ronald Reagan thought the tariff necessary, then Japan surely deserved it. After
more than seven years in office, Ronald Reagan is still widely regarded as a devoted free trader.
A typical reference is that of Mark Shields, a Washington Post columnist, to Reagan's "blind devotion
to the doctrine of free trade."
If President Reagan has a devotion to free trade, it surely must be blind, because he has been
off the mark most of the time. Only short memories and a refusal to believe one's own eyes would
account for the view that President Reagan is a free trader. Calling oneself a free trader is
not the same thing as being a free trader. Nor does a free-trade position mean that the president,
but not Congress, should have the power to impose trade sanctions. Instead, a president deserves
the title of free trader only if his efforts demonstrate an attempt to remove trade barriers at
home and prevent the imposition of new ones.
By this standard, the Reagan administration has failed to promote free trade. Ronald Reagan
by his actions has become the most protectionist president since Herbert Hoover, the heavyweight
champion of protectionists.
[ I appreciate this reference, which is in turn extensively referenced. ]
This is simple. It means instead of shipping low end Toyota Corolla's that were small, manual
transmission, no A/C, etc., the Japanese started to make larger, more expensive cars, even luxury
cars like Lexis, etc.
If this helps, think of Volkswagen being limited to shipping 1,000 cars to the US. They would
probably send us only the top-end Porsches (VW owns that brand) and none of the more middle class
cars.
To Anne's point on whether this is an accurate portrayal of what happened: I have no recollection
and no knowledge about this.
What really happened is simple. The Japanese car companies got that quota rents (Menzie Chinn
documented this recently) from what was effectively a quota on the imports of Japanese cars. American
consumers instead imported European cars. Any benefits to US car manufacturing was trivial and
totally undo for the aggregate US economy by the massive dollar appreciation. All one has to do
is to look at the exchange rate back then and one gets why net exports fell dramatically.
Japanese manufacturers exported more expensive models in the 1980s due to voluntary export
restraints, negotiated by the Japanese government and U.S. trade representatives, that restricted
mainstream car sales. ...
Acura holds the distinction of being the first Japanese automotive luxury brand. ... In its
first few years of existence, Acura was among the best-selling luxury marques in the US. ...
In the late 1980s, the success of the company's first flagship vehicle, the Legend, inspired
fellow Japanese automakers Toyota and Nissan to launch their own luxury brands, Lexus and Infiniti,
respectively. ...
I am reluctant to disagree with Paul Krugman, as he has forgotten more economics than I'll ever
know. But my first thought as I read this was: motivated reasoning. It is quite interesting, and
affects all of us, and the brilliant folks seem to be more susceptible to it than the average
folks.
Krugman dislikes Trump (as do I). He seems motivated to find fault with Trump's policies.
In fuzzy things like economics and their intersection with politics it is challenging, and perhaps
actually impossible, for most of us to remain balanced. If someone as smart and knowledgeable
as Paul Krugman subconsciously decides to dislike a policy, his brain is more than clever enough
to invent reasonable economic arguments against the policy.
Of course, none of this implies that Krugman is actually wrong in this case.
One question for folks. Krugman says "the budget deficit pushed up interest rates, which caused
a strong dollar, which caused a bigger trade deficit, mainly in manufactured goods (which are
still most of what's tradable.)" I am wondering why a budget deficit has to push up interest rates?
In 2009 we ran a large budget deficit at low interest rates. In WW 2 we did as well (I think,
not really sure about this). Is it well established that budget deficits push up interest rates?
Cognitive bias. Using % of jobs that are manufacturing is relative to what was happening in
other job areas: like Reagan building up the military and civil service to buy weapons a tiny
part of the growth in that sector was manufacturing.
What else was going on in late 70's early 80's... a lot of growth on service sector.
It is called cherry picking the chart to make a point with non thinkers.
Right, I think the answer is that budget deficits only push up interest rates if the Fed allows
that to happen. The Fed could keep rates low if they wanted by signaling a willingness to buy
up as much federal debt as is needed to hit some low target rate. So I think Krugman is, in effect,
predicting that they will not do that, and that they will instead counteract the fiscal expansion
with tighter monetary policy on the theory that this is needed to counteract potential "overheating".
I bought a house in 1985, I bet interest rates would go down by taking a 1 year ARM. I did quite
well each year it adjusted! I sold it in 1990 and rates were low enough to go fixed conventional
on the "trade up".
It is reputed the high rates helped cause the "Volcker" recession in the gray around 82.
Thinking about it some more. If I understand this correctly, the thought is that deficit spending
is stimulative, and the economy is already at full employment, so the Fed will raise interest
rates to prevent the economy from "overheating." The increase in rates slows the economy down
by two mechanisms:
(1) when the cost of capital is higher, fewer investments get made than when it is lower (say,
a business needs to see a higher ROI when interest rates are high than when they are low). (As
an aside, outside of the housing market, I don't think this effect is very strong. Real businesses
don't change their approach to investment if rates change by, say, 100%; from 2% to 4%. At least,
not the ones I have been exposed to, which are generally looking for ~ 15% IRR on investments.)
(2) People globally may be more inclined to hold dollars when the risk-free rate is higher,
which increases demand for the currency, which means the currency gets stronger, and exports are
less competitive and imports more competitive, counter-acting the stimulus.
The thing I don't like about this line of thought is that it is fatalist. It suggests that
fiscal policy really does not matter, it will all be offset by monetary policy. There is no real
impact to the economy whether we run huge budget deficits or surpluses. Me not liking it does
not mean it is wrong, obviously, but I just don't buy it. When I run into things like this in
economics I really start to wonder how much of macro is based on empirical observations and correlations
versus 'models.'
I think I ought to take an intro econ course and actually learn something. Or read an introductory
macro text book...
Krugman says "the budget deficit pushed up interest rates, which caused a strong dollar, which
caused a bigger trade deficit, mainly in manufactured goods (which are still most of what's tradable.)"
I am wondering why a budget deficit has to push up interest rates?
In 2009 we ran a large budget deficit at low interest rates.... Is it well established that
budget deficits push up interest rates?
[ Here then is the relevant matter to be analyzed. ]
Anne, thank you. From this plot I see that during Clinton's presidency we went from a budget deficit
to a surplus. And interest rates dropped. During the George W. Bush presidency we went from a
surplus to a deficit. And interest rates dropped.
There does not appear to be any obvious correlation between the budget deficit and interest
rates.
I understand the textbook story is the Fed raises rates when the budget deficit increases.
I am not sure if the empirical data supports that though. Perhaps the Fed cares more about inflation
than budget deficits and perhaps budget deficits do not directly result in inflation? But if that
is correct, what is the basis for Professor Krugman's assertion that Trump's budget will push
up interest rates?
With war looming, it's time to be prepared. So last week I switched to a fixed-rate mortgage.
It means higher monthly payments, but I'm terrified about what will happen to interest rates once
financial markets wake up to the implications of skyrocketing budget deficits.
From a fiscal point of view the impending war is a lose-lose proposition. If it goes badly,
the resulting mess will be a disaster for the budget. If it goes well, administration officials
have made it clear that they will use any bump in the polls to ram through more big tax cuts,
which will also be a disaster for the budget. Either way, the tide of red ink will keep on rising.
Last week the Congressional Budget Office marked down its estimates yet again. Just two years
ago, you may remember, the C.B.O. was projecting a 10-year surplus of $5.6 trillion. Now it projects
a 10-year deficit of $1.8 trillion.
And that's way too optimistic. The Congressional Budget Office operates under ground rules
that force it to wear rose-colored lenses. If you take into account - as the C.B.O. cannot - the
effects of likely changes in the alternative minimum tax, include realistic estimates of future
spending and allow for the cost of war and reconstruction, it's clear that the 10-year deficit
will be at least $3 trillion.
So what? Two years ago the administration promised to run large surpluses. A year ago it said
the deficit was only temporary. Now it says deficits don't matter. But we're looking at a fiscal
crisis that will drive interest rates sky-high.
A leading economist recently summed up one reason why: "When the government reduces saving
by running a budget deficit, the interest rate rises." Yes, that's from a textbook by the chief
administration economist, Gregory Mankiw.
But what's really scary - what makes a fixed-rate mortgage seem like such a good idea - is
the looming threat to the federal government's solvency.... ]
Yes, thank you for that column from 2003. Yes, Prof. K was correct about the future trend in deficits
back then, but incorrect about the future trend in interest rates.
It is certainly conceivable that he is wrong now as well.
Krugman captures very well what happened in the 1980's. He went to work for the CEA hoping to
undo this disaster. Of course the political hacks in the Reagan White House did not listen to
the CEA. Now he watches people in the Trump White House that are even more insane than these political
hacks. You draw whatever conclusion you want but his concerns strike me as real from someone who
has been there.
pgl - thank you. I am not drawing any hard and fast conclusions, just trying to learn. I appreciate
your comment that is based on both education and experience.
I am still thinking about this Buffett proposal on trade with import certificates.
http://fortune.com/2016/04/29/warren-buffett-foreign-trade/
Jared Bernstein mentioned it in passing in an opinion piece in the NY Times yesterday. I put
a comment on his website asking him to share more of his thoughts on it, and he said that he will
if/when he has time. I hope he does.
No. Budget deficits for a country such as the US do not push up interest rates. They would in
fact lower the interbank rate if not countered by Federal Reserve actions.
If budget deficits added to aggregate demand to the point that the Fed thought its inflation
target was in jeopardy, the Fed might raise its target rate of interest in the hopes of quelling
demand.
The Fed has almost complete control over the interest rate paid by the Federal government when
it decides to issue new debt. WWII is a great example of this. So is our most recent depression.
Will Fiscal Policy Really Be Expansionary?
By Paul Krugman
It's now generally accepted that Trump_vs_deep_state will finally involve the kind of fiscal stimulus
progressive economists have been pleading for ever since the financial crisis. After all, Republicans
are deeply worried about budget deficits when a Democrat is in the White House, but suddenly become
fiscal doves when in control. And there really is no question that the deficit will go up.
But will this actually amount to fiscal stimulus? Right now it looks as if Republicans are
going to ram through their whole agenda, including an end to Obamacare, privatizing Medicare and
block-granting Medicaid, sharp cuts to food stamps, and so on. These are spending cuts, which
will reduce the disposable income of lower- and middle-class Americans even as tax cuts raise
the income of the wealthy. Given the sharp distributional changes, looking just at the budget
deficit may be a poor guide to the macroeconomic impact.
Given the extent to which things are in flux, I can't put numbers on what's likely to happen.
But I was able to find matching analyses by the good folks at Center on Budget and Policy Priorities
of tax * and spending ** cuts in Paul Ryan's 2014 budget, which may be a useful model of things
to come.
If you leave out the magic asterisks - closing of unspecified tax loopholes - that budget was
a deficit-hiker: $5.7 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years, versus $5 trillion in spending cuts.
The spending cuts involved cuts in discretionary spending plus huge cuts in programs that serve
the poor and middle class; the tax cuts were, of course, very targeted on high incomes.
The pluses and minuses here would have quite different effects on demand. Cutting taxes on
high incomes probably has a low multiplier: the wealthy are unlikely to be cash-constrained, and
will save a large part of their windfall. Cutting discretionary spending has a large multiplier,
because it directly cuts government purchases of goods and services; cutting programs for the
poor probably has a pretty high multiplier too, because it reduces the income of many people who
are living more or less hand to mouth.
Taking all this into account, that old Ryan plan would almost surely have been contractionary,
not expansionary.
Will Trumponomics be any different? It would matter if there really were a large infrastructure
push, but that's becoming ever less plausible. There will be big tax cuts at the top, but as I
said, the push to dismantle the safety net definitely seems to be on. Put it all together, and
it's extremely doubtful whether we're talking about net fiscal stimulus.
Now, you might think that someone will explain this to Trump, and that he'll demand a more
Keynesian plan. But I have two words for you: Larry Kudlow.
In looking at economic trends, the other issue to take into account is private lending. Individual
debt (credit cards, etc.) is already back up to the levels before the financial crisis and Trump's
appointees are determined to deregulate financial institutions, which may contribute to a return
to the predatory lending that created the last set of booms and busts. *
It's hard to focus on ordinary economic analysis amidst this political apocalypse. But getting
and spending will still consume most of peoples' energy and time; furthermore, like it or not
the progress of CASE NIGHTMARE ORANGE may depend on how the economy does. So, what is actually
likely to happen to trade and manufacturing over the next few years?
As it happens, we have what looks like an unusually good model in the Reagan years - minus
the severe recession and conveniently timed recovery, which somewhat overshadowed the trade story.
Leave aside the Volcker recession and recovery, and what you had was a large move toward budget
deficits via tax cuts and military buildup, coupled with quite a lot of protectionism - it's not
part of the Reagan legend, but the import quota on Japanese automobiles was one of the biggest
protectionist moves of the postwar era.
I'm a bit uncertain about the actual fiscal stance of Trumponomics: deficits will surely blow
up, but I won't believe in the infrastructure push until I see it, and given savage cuts in aid
to the poor it's not entirely clear that there will be net stimulus. * But suppose there is. Then
what?
Well, what happened in the Reagan years was "twin deficits": the budget deficit pushed up interest
rates, which caused a strong dollar, which caused a bigger trade deficit, mainly in manufactured
goods (which are still most of what's tradable.) This led to an accelerated decline in the industrial
orientation of the U.S. economy:
[Graph]
And people did notice. Using Google Ngram, we can watch the spread of terms for industrial
decline, e.g. here:
[Graph]
And here:
[Graph]
Again, this happened despite substantial protectionism.
So Trump_vs_deep_state will probably follow a similar course; it will actually shrink manufacturing despite
the big noise made about saving a few hundred jobs here and there.
On the other hand, by then the Bureau of Labor Statistics may be thoroughly politicized, commanded
to report good news whatever happens.
RMO declines sharply during recessions and the worse the downturn, the harder manufacturing
gets hit. Ergo, avoiding recessions is the absolute best policy for manufacturing. Trade and the
dollar's value don't have nearly as strong correlations.
RMWW rise strongly during sustained expansions of private industry employment.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/USPRIV
Trade deficits have little correlation but the correlation with private industry employment growth
is strong: 16 million new jobs since 1Q2010.
All of this should be obvious, as Keynes said: "The ideas (about economics) . . . are extremely
simple and should be obvious."
"Well, what happened in the Reagan years was "twin deficits": the budget deficit pushed up
interest rates, which caused a strong dollar, which caused a bigger trade deficit, mainly in manufactured
goods (which are still most of what's tradable.)"
Deficit spending would always stimulate an economy except the Fed controls the brakes.
The Fed is especially worried about wage price inflation spirals
When inflation pops its head above target, the Fed slams on the brakes.
At the ZLB, inflation is far below target so the Fed has its foot off the brakes.
Deficit spending is stimulatory because the Fed does not apply the brakes by raising interest
rates.
This is textbook economics
The first intelligent comment here. Yes Volcker kept real interest rate very high for a while
which led to a dramatic appreciation of the dollar. But even as Volcker took off the monetary
brakes to let the economy get back to full employment, real interest rates stayed elevated and
the real appreciation was not entirely reversed. So we got a sustained trade deficit even in the
face of trade protection. That is the simple point that some here wish to duck.
Yes but historically it does not seem like it has worked that way. There does not appear to be
an obvious correlation between budget deficits and either (a) interest rates themselves, or (b)
the change in interest rates.
It seems like the Fed is acting on inflation signals. It is not so clear that (changes in)
budget deficits necessarily result in (changes in) inflation. Unless there is a direct link between
budget deficits and inflation it is hard to credibly argue that increasing the budget deficit
results in increased inflation results in Federal Reserve raising rates to choke off inflation.
The history of budget deficits and interest rates that Anne showed above don't provide much
support for Prof. Krugman's point.
Krugman is predicting that the Fed will raise rates to counter Trump's fiscal expansion and will
appreciate the dollar. That's what happened with Volcker jacking rates to fight inflation.
He doesn't spell this out exactly.
It's like how Greenspan and Rubin told Clinton he had to drop his middle class spending
bill in order to focus on deficit reduction. Greenspan was threatening to raise rates and Clinton
bent the knee to the "independent" Fed.
That's when Clinton threw a tantrum about being an "Eisenhower Republican."
The Senate Democrats like Schumer get what the populist backlash is about. That's why they're
promising $1 trillion over 10 years in government spending rather than Hillary's $275 over 5 years.
They can do the math. They know what happened in the election. It wasn't just about Comey or
the DNC hack. The election shouldn't have been that close.
"the budget deficit pushed up interest rates" We had large budget deficits during the Great Recession
and they didn't push up interest rates. In fact Obama focused too much on deficit reduction.
"... It will permeate throughout the nation's public and private institutions, from the federal agencies and congress (which we have in spades already but it will become far worse) to state and local governments, to school districts, and private business's. ..."
"... It will have consequences in our nation's ability to deal with issues and problems on an objective and rational basis long after Trump's term(s) end ..."
"... I'm concerned that it will actually change the nature of public gov't and private institutions in communicating with one another and the public, with courts and judges and of course with Juries. ..."
"... How does a parent teach their child not to lie when the child can say but "you said the President is lying" and if the President can lie and it is accepted and condoned (meaning he retains is office) then why should lying be considered "verboten" at all? How does truth climb to the surface distinguished from lies? ..."
"... And mentioning "a legitimacy promoted and condoned by our nation's leaders" you forgot the role of MSM in this dirty "misunderinformation" business (using the derivative of word invented by unforgettable Bush II) . ..."
"... All data became propaganda. Welcome to the USSR. ..."
My concern goes well beyond Professor Thoma's with economic data.
Trump and team have given lying to people and the public, outright rejection of objective facts
and data a legitimacy promoted and condoned by our nation's leaders. This will play out to legitimize
it also with the general public, newspaper editors, business leaders, TV news (alt-news?), academic
studies, faux science as equally legitimate with actual science, etc, so it will not stop with
or be limited to Trump & co.
It will permeate throughout the nation's public and private institutions, from the federal
agencies and congress (which we have in spades already but it will become far worse) to state
and local governments, to school districts, and private business's.
It will have consequences in our nation's ability to deal with issues and problems on an
objective and rational basis long after Trump's term(s) end
I'm concerned that it will actually change the nature of public gov't and private institutions
in communicating with one another and the public, with courts and judges and of course with Juries.
How does a parent teach their child not to lie when the child can say but "you said the
President is lying" and if the President can lie and it is accepted and condoned (meaning he retains
is office) then why should lying be considered "verboten" at all? How does truth climb to the
surface distinguished from lies?
And it's not just a child/parent issue .. it becomes an employee/employer issue, a teacher/student
issue, a science/religion issue (oh, sorry. We already have that in spades). The lines are not
only blurred but indistinguishable. Who should people believe? What sources? Which news broadcasters?
I don't know the level of concern I should have yet, but the concern is something I never before
thought I could have or would have reason for concern.
If truth is lost in the shuffle then no rational argument can exist and if rational argument
cannot exist, then irrationality reigns supreme. Textbooks are changed to substitute lies of any
kind on any subject, and then changed again to promote a different lie, and it doesn't take long
before truth no longer exists other than as a concept for which there is no means of accepted
proof of concept.
There will still be some accepted truths ... the sky is color blue on a clear day... that is
if nobody calling himself and "expert" questions it.
I admit my concerns may be overblown, but in my lifetime and at least my adult lifetime I've
never seen nor experienced this level of fiction by leaders and blatant lying with their supporters
mimicking those lies knowing full well they are lies. Nixon was bad enough but he doesn't hold
a candle to Trump.. .they aren't even in the same league.
And since trust is the only primary foundation of a cooperative society with a cooperative
government, then this administration's lies will bring an end to a cooperative society in the
U.S... for a period of time long after Trump's grandchildren bury him.
"Trump and team have given lying to people and the public, outright rejection of objective facts
and data a legitimacy promoted and condoned by our nation's leaders"
Sounds like a direct continuation of efforts of Obama and Bush II.
And mentioning "a legitimacy promoted and condoned by our nation's leaders" you forgot the
role of MSM in this dirty "misunderinformation" business (using the derivative of word invented
by unforgettable Bush II) .
"... People can perceive that her ideology is founded on a conception of human beings striving relentlessly to become human capital (as her opening campaign commercial so overtly depicted), which means that those who fail to come within the purview of neoliberalism should be rigorously ostracized, punished, and excluded. ..."
"... As the market becomes an abstraction, so does democracy, but the real playing field is somewhere else, in the realm of actual economic exchange-which is not, however, the market. We may say that all exchange takes place on the neoliberal surface. ..."
You are wrong. Your definition of neoliberalism is formally right and we can argue along those
lines that Hillary is a neoliberal too (Her track record as a senator suggests exactly that),
it is way too narrow.
"One way to sum up neoliberalism is to say that everything-everything-is to be made over
in the image of the market, including the state, civil society, and of course human beings."
(see below)
"Another way to say it is that the state has become the market, the market has become the
state, and therefore both have ceased to exist in the form we have classically understood them."
"In the current election campaign, Hillary Clinton has been the most perfect embodiment
of neoliberalism among all the candidates, she is almost its all-time ideal avatar, and I believe
this explains, even if not articulated this way, the widespread discomfort among the populace
toward her ascendancy. People can perceive that her ideology is founded on a conception
of human beings striving relentlessly to become human capital (as her opening campaign commercial
so overtly depicted), which means that those who fail to come within the purview of neoliberalism
should be rigorously ostracized, punished, and excluded.
This is the dark side of neoliberalism's ideological arm (a multiculturalism founded on
human beings as capital), which is why this project has become increasingly associated with
suppression of free speech and intolerance of those who refuse to go along with the kind of
identity politics neoliberalism promotes.
And this explains why the 1990s saw the simultaneous and absolutely parallel rise, under
the Clintons, of both neoliberal globalization and various regimes of neoliberal disciplining,
such as the shaming and exclusion of former welfare recipients (every able-bodied person should
be able to find work, therefore under TANF welfare was converted to a performance management
system designed to enroll everyone in the workforce, even if it meant below-subsistence wages
or the loss of parental responsibilities, all of it couched in the jargon of marketplace incentives)."
In this sense Hillary Clinton is 100% dyed-in-the-wool neoliberal and neocon ("neoliberal with
the gun"). She promotes so called "neoliberal rationality" a perverted "market-based" rationality
typical for neoliberalism:
== quote ==
When Hillary Clinton frequently retorts-in response to demands for reregulation of finance,
for instance-that we have to abide by "the rule of law," this reflects a particular understanding
of the law, the law as embodying the sense of the market, the law after it has undergone a
revolution of reinterpretation in purely economic terms.
In this revolution of the law persons have no status compared to corporations, nation-states
are on their way out, and everything in turn dissolves before the abstraction called the market.
One way to sum up neoliberalism is to say that everything-everything-is to be made over
in the image of the market, including the state, civil society, and of course human beings.
Democracy becomes reinterpreted as the market, and politics succumbs to neoliberal economic
theory, so we are speaking of the end of democratic politics as we have known it for two and
a half centuries.
As the market becomes an abstraction, so does democracy, but the real playing field
is somewhere else, in the realm of actual economic exchange-which is not, however, the market.
We may say that all exchange takes place on the neoliberal surface.
Neoliberalism is often described-and this creates a lot of confusion-as "market
fundamentalism," and while this may be true for neoliberal's self-promotion and self-presentation,
i.e., the market as the ultimate and only myth, as were the gods of the past, I would argue
that in neoliberalism there is no such thing as the market as we have understood it from previous
ideologies.
The neoliberal state-actually, to utter the word state seems insufficient here, I would
claim that a new entity is being created, which is not the state as we have known it, but an
existence that incorporates potentially all the states in the world and is something that exceeds
their sum-is all-powerful, it seeks to leave no space for individual self-conception in the
way that classical liberalism, and even communism and fascism to some degree, were willing
to allow.
There are competing understandings of neoliberal globalization, when it comes to the question
of whether the state is strong or weak compared to the primary agent of globalization, i.e.,
the corporation, but I am taking this logic further, I am suggesting that the issue is not
how strong the state is in the service of neoliberalism, but whether there is anything left
over beyond the new definition of the state. Another way to say it is that the state has become
the market, the market has become the state, and therefore both have ceased to exist in the
form we have classically understood them.
Of course the word hasn't gotten around to the people yet, hence all the confusion about
whether Hillary Clinton is more neoliberal than Barack Obama, or whether Donald Trump will
be less neoliberal than Hillary Clinton.
The project of neoliberalism-i.e., the redefinition of the state, the institutions of society,
and the self-has come so far along that neoliberalism is almost beyond the need of individual
entities to make or break its case. Its penetration has gone too deep, and none of the democratic
figureheads that come forward can fundamentally question its efficacy.
How Private Equity Firms are Designed to Earn Big While Risking Little of Their Own
By Eileen Appelbaum and Rosemary Batt
Private equity firms are financial actors that sponsor investment funds that raise billions of dollars each year. The funds
typically buy out high-performing companies using high amounts of debt and plan to resell them in a five-year window – promising
investors outsized returns in the process. They propose to do this through a combination of operational improvements and financial
engineering techniques that extract resources from companies, often leaving them financially vulnerable.
This business model, known as a 'leveraged buyout', was widely used and then discredited in the 1980s; but it returned under
the guise of 'private equity' and has grown dramatically in the last fifteen years – both in the US and in Europe. Between 2000
and 2012, private equity firms invested $3.4 trillion in some 18,300 buyouts of U.S. companies. And while PE investments fell
sharply in the great recession, they largely recovered thereafter.
More than other types of financial intermediaries, private equity (PE) takes an active role in managing the companies it buys.
Before a company is purchased, the fund's general partner (who makes all decisions for the PE fund) develops a plan for how much
debt to use, how the company's cash flow will be used to service the debt, and how the PE firm will exit the company at a profit.
The limited partners in the fund put up 98 per cent of the fund's equity while the PE firm and its general partners put up 2 per
cent or less. Pension funds account for 35 per cent of all investments in PE funds - creating a moral dilemma for workers whose
retirement savings may be putting other companies and workers at risk.
In our book, we illustrate the many ways that private equity firms make money and the effect they have on the lives of working
people. Sometimes private equity does perform as advertised – using reasonable amounts of debt and providing access to management
expertise and financial resources. This usually involves small companies - with few assets that can be mortgaged, but many opportunities
for operational improvements. Most PE investments, however, are in larger companies that already have modern management systems
in place and also have substantial assets that can be mortgaged. Here, private equity firms use debt and financial engineering
strategies to extract resources from healthy companies.
How do private equity firms make money?
Leverage is at the core of the private equity business model. Debt multiplies returns on investment and the interest on the
debt can be deducted from taxes. PE partners typically finance the buyout of a company with 30 per cent equity and 70 per cent
debt. Private equity funds use the assets of the acquired company as collateral and put the burden of repayment on the company
itself. The PE firm has very little of its own money at risk – PE partners invest 1 to 2 per cent of the purchase price of acquired
companies (2 per cent of 30 per cent is .02*.3 = .006 or 0.6 per cent). Yet they claim 20 per cent of any gains from the subsequent
sale of these companies.
PE firms play with other people's money – from investors in its funds to creditors who provide loans. Leverage magnifies investment
returns in good times – and PE firms collect a disproportionate share of these gains. But if the debt cannot be repaid, the company,
its workers, and its creditors bear the costs. The PE business model is a low risk, high reward strategy for PE firm partners.
Post buyout, PE firms often engage in financial engineering that further compromises portfolio companies.
They may have portfolio companies take out loans at junk bond rates and use the proceeds to pay themselves and their investors
a dividend.
They may split a real estate-rich company into an operating company and a property company, then sell off the real estate and
repay investors while the operating company must lease back the property and pay (often inflated) rent.
They may require portfolio companies to pay monitoring fees to the PE firm for unspecified services. Payment of the fees reduces
the companies' liquidity cushion and puts them at risk.
What happens to portfolio companies and workers?
The results of financial engineering are predictable. When the economy falters, the high debt levels of these companies – especially
in cyclical industries – make them prone to default and bankruptcy. One economic study found that during the last recession roughly
a quarter of highly leveraged companies defaulted on their debts. The financial crisis officially ended in 2009, but bankruptcies
among PE-owned companies continued through 2015. Energy Future Holdings, for example, was acquired in 2007 by a PE consortium
and defaulted in 2014 with $35.8 billion in debt. Las Vegas based Caesar's Entertainment was acquired by PE in 2006, but by mid-2007
its long-term debt had more than doubled. It declared bankruptcy in 2015, putting over 30,000 union workers at risk.
These examples of job loss are backed by rigorous econometric studies. One study found that through 2005, PE-owned establishments
had significantly lower employment and wages post buyout than did comparable publicly-traded companies - despite the fact that
the PE-owned establishments had higher levels of wages and employment growth than their counterparts in the buyout year. Employment
in PE-owned companies was 3.0 to 6.7 per cent lower in the first 2 years after buyout, and 6 per cent lower after 5 years.
What Happens to Limited Partner Investors? ...
Eileen Appelbaum is Visiting Professor at the University of Leicester, UK. Prior to this she was Professor in the School of Management
and Labor Relations at Rutgers University and Professor of Economics at Temple University. Rosemary Batt is the Alice Hanson Cook
Professor of Women and Work at the ILR School, Cornell University.
Trump Revives Keystone Oil Pipeline That Obama Blocked
By PETER BAKER and CORAL DAVENPORT
President Donald J. Trump continued dismantling his
predecessor's policies by clearing the way for a project that
stirred years of debate over the balance between energy
production and preventing climate change.
Barack Obama rejected the proposed 1,179-mile pipeline in
2015, arguing that it would undercut American leadership in
curbing the reliance on carbon energy.
"Studies showed that the pipeline would not have a momentous
impact on jobs or the environment, but both sides made it
into a symbolic test case of American willingness to promote
energy production or curb its appetites to heal the planet."
It does not require a lot of high paying jobs to build a
pipeline. I have no idea about the potential risks to the
environment but I do know that the owners of oil in Canada
wanted to see their prices in line with prices of oil
producers in the North Sea. In other words, more profits.
That is really what this debate is about. Not jobs - just
profits.
"the owners of oil in Canada wanted to see their prices in
line with prices of oil producers in the North Sea"
Nonsense.
The cost for Canadian oil should be higher as oil sands is
a more expensive source of oil then the deep sea drilling.
Also this heavy oil requires dilution.
It might well be that $55 is a minimum for them (actually
depends of the method of extraction used). And average is
probably around $65 or higher. And this is just "break-even"
cost.
== quote ==
The new estimates of plant-gate supply costs: $50.89/bbl
(Can.) for SAGD, $71.81/bbl for stand-alone mining, and
$107.57/bbl for integrated mining. CERI estimates the cost of
stand-alone upgrading at $40.82/bbl.
... ... ..
Total capital requirements during 2014-48 in the oil sands,
excluding those for primary production and EOR, are $597.9
billion (Can.) in the reference case, $636.6 billion in the
high case, and $590.2 billion in the low case.
Neoliberal Third Way caused far right renaissance in the USA, UK and elsewhere...
Notable quotes:
"... Warning: amateur political science below ..."
"... Labour moved further right (and more neoliberal) as they became more accommodating towards austerity. It was hardly a surprise that party members tried to pull the party back by electing Corbyn as leader. ..."
"... With Labour no longer seen as representing the working class, this allowed the right wing media (with the support of the Conservatives) to help convince the left behind that their problems were a consequence of immigration. ..."
Did centrism beget populism? Warning: amateur political science below
Stewart Wood has a well argued
piece in the New Statesman, saying that it was the move by left and right towards a
common centrism that laid the foundations for populism.
... ... ...
Margaret Thatcher was considered pretty right wing when she was in power. Many of her key achievement
in terms of her own agenda, such as a diminished union movement and shrinking the state through
privatisation, were not reversed by Blair and Brown. It is difficult to argue that the Cameron/Osborne
duo made any attempt to undo the Thatcher legacy. Instead they tried to go beyond it, by shrinking
the state to a size relative to GDP not seen since the end of WWII. They did it under the pretense
that they were forced to because otherwise the markets would no longer buy government debt. This
was a colossal deceit. There no evidence that markets were concerned about government debt, and
strong evidence that they were not. [1] This deceit should have become clear when Osborne cut
taxes at the same time as continuing to cut spending.
... ... ...
Labour moved to the right under Blair, while remaining socially liberal. I agree with Stewart
Wood that this alone was important in preparing the way for populism. As well as the lack of a
major industrial policy, they did nothing to curb a rampant financial sector or reverse the gains
of the 1% that were a feature of the Thatcher period, a point
emphasised
by Jean Pisani-Ferry in respect of both the UK and US. I think New Labour's position is
better described as liberal rather
than neoliberal: New Labour substantially increased the amount of resources (as a proportion
of GDP) going to the NHS, and they also did a great deal to try and reduce child poverty. Labour
moved further right (and more neoliberal) as they became more accommodating towards austerity.
It was hardly a surprise that party members tried to pull the party back by electing Corbyn as
leader.
As I argued
here
, Brexit was a perfect storm where the economically left behind united with social conservatives.
With Labour no longer seen as representing the working class, this allowed the right wing
media (with the support of the Conservatives) to help convince the left behind that their problems
were a consequence of immigration. The Leave campaign was populist in the sense I describe
here : advocating a superficially attractive policy to some that would leave everyone
worse off. Much the same is true for Trump, who won the electoral college by convincing the left
behind that he really could bring back their traditional jobs, something he will be unable to
do in any kind of general way.
not centrism, but bothsidelism - the unwillingness of the press etc to distinguish between
radical extremism and political norms. The outcome is the normalisation of relentless semi-fascism
and the acceptance of alternative facts, resulting in unsubstantiated beliefs of victimisation,
and the election of candidates who actually revel in and exacerbate the real problems people
face in the US
For the UK, those supporting Leave have essentially endorsed Iain Duncan Smith's leadership
of the Conservative Party in the early 2000s. It's no wonder New Labour cannot understand what has happened.
"... People can perceive that her ideology is founded on a conception of human beings striving relentlessly to become human capital (as her opening campaign commercial so overtly depicted), which means that those who fail to come within the purview of neoliberalism should be rigorously ostracized, punished, and excluded. ..."
"... And this explains why the 1990s saw the simultaneous and absolutely parallel rise, under the Clintons, of both neoliberal globalization and various regimes of neoliberal disciplining, such as the shaming and exclusion of former welfare recipients (every able-bodied person should be able to find work, therefore under TANF welfare was converted to a performance management system designed to enroll everyone in the workforce, even if it meant below-subsistence wages or the loss of parental responsibilities, all of it couched in the jargon of marketplace incentives)." ..."
"... The project of neoliberalism -- i.e., the redefinition of the state, the institutions of society, and the self-has come so far along that neoliberalism is almost beyond the need of individual entities to make or break its case. Its penetration has gone too deep, and none of the democratic figureheads that come forward can fundamentally question its efficacy. ..."
You are wrong. Your definition of neoliberalism is formally right and we can argue along those lines that Hillary is a neoliberal
too (Her track record as a senator suggests exactly that), it is way too narrow.
"One way to sum up neoliberalism is to say that everything-everything-is to be made over in the image of the market, including
the state, civil society, and of course human beings." (see below)
"Another way to say it is that the state has become the market, the market has become the state, and therefore both have
ceased to exist in the form we have classically understood them."
"In the current election campaign, Hillary Clinton has been the most perfect embodiment of neoliberalism among all the candidates,
she is almost its all-time ideal avatar, and I believe this explains, even if not articulated this way, the widespread discomfort
among the populace toward her ascendancy. People can perceive that her ideology is founded on a conception of human beings
striving relentlessly to become human capital (as her opening campaign commercial so overtly depicted), which means that those
who fail to come within the purview of neoliberalism should be rigorously ostracized, punished, and excluded.
This is the dark side of neoliberalism's ideological arm (a multiculturalism founded on human beings as capital), which
is why this project has become increasingly associated with suppression of free speech and intolerance of those who refuse
to go along with the kind of identity politics neoliberalism promotes.
And this explains why the 1990s saw the simultaneous and absolutely parallel rise, under the Clintons, of both neoliberal
globalization and various regimes of neoliberal disciplining, such as the shaming and exclusion of former welfare recipients
(every able-bodied person should be able to find work, therefore under TANF welfare was converted to a performance management
system designed to enroll everyone in the workforce, even if it meant below-subsistence wages or the loss of parental responsibilities,
all of it couched in the jargon of marketplace incentives)."
In this sense Hillary Clinton is 100% dyed-in-the-wool neoliberal and neocon ("neoliberal with the gun"). She promotes so called
"neoliberal rationality" a perverted "market-based" rationality typical for neoliberalism:
When Hillary Clinton frequently retorts-in response to demands for reregulation of finance, for instance -- that we have
to abide by "the rule of law," this reflects a particular understanding of the law, the law as embodying the sense of the market,
the law after it has undergone a revolution of reinterpretation in purely economic terms.
In this revolution of the law persons have no status compared to corporations, nation-states are on their way out, and everything
in turn dissolves before the abstraction called the market.
One way to sum up neoliberalism is to say that everything-everything-is to be made over in the image of the market, including
the state, civil society, and of course human beings. Democracy becomes reinterpreted as the market, and politics succumbs
to neoliberal economic theory, so we are speaking of the end of democratic politics as we have known it for two and a half
centuries.
As the market becomes an abstraction, so does democracy, but the real playing field is somewhere else, in the realm of actual
economic exchange-which is not, however, the market. We may say that all exchange takes place on the neoliberal surface.
Neoliberalism is often described -- and this creates a lot of confusion -- as "market fundamentalism," and while this may
be true for neoliberal's self-promotion and self-presentation, i.e., the market as the ultimate and only myth, as were the
gods of the past, I would argue that in neoliberalism there is no such thing as the market as we have understood it from previous
ideologies.
The neoliberal state-actually, to utter the word state seems insufficient here, I would claim that a new entity is being
created, which is not the state as we have known it, but an existence that incorporates potentially all the states in the world
and is something that exceeds their sum-is all-powerful, it seeks to leave no space for individual self-conception in the way
that classical liberalism, and even communism and fascism to some degree, were willing to allow.
There are competing understandings of neoliberal globalization, when it comes to the question of whether the state is strong
or weak compared to the primary agent of globalization, i.e., the corporation, but I am taking this logic further, I am suggesting
that the issue is not how strong the state is in the service of neoliberalism, but whether there is anything left over beyond
the new definition of the state. Another way to say it is that the state has become the market, the market has become the state,
and therefore both have ceased to exist in the form we have classically understood them.
Of course the word hasn't gotten around to the people yet, hence all the confusion about whether Hillary Clinton is more
neoliberal than Barack Obama, or whether Donald Trump will be less neoliberal than Hillary Clinton.
The project of neoliberalism -- i.e., the redefinition of the state, the institutions of society, and the self-has come
so far along that neoliberalism is almost beyond the need of individual entities to make or break its case. Its penetration
has gone too deep, and none of the democratic figureheads that come forward can fundamentally question its efficacy.
Neoliberalism has been more successful than most past ideologies in
redefining subjectivity, in making people alter their sense of themselves,
their personhood, their identities, their hopes and expectations and dreams
and idealizations. Classical liberalism was successful too, for two and a
half centuries, in people's self-definition, although communism and fascism
succeeded less well in realizing the "new man."
It cannot be emphasized
enough that neoliberalism is
not
classical liberalism, or a return
to a purer version of it, as is commonly misunderstood; it is a
new
thing, because the market, for one thing, is not at all free and untethered
and dynamic in the sense that classical liberalism idealized it.
Neoliberalism presumes a strong state, working only for the benefit of the
wealthy, and as such it has little pretence to neutrality and universality,
unlike the classical liberal state.
I would go so far as to say that neoliberalism is the final completion of
capitalism's long-nascent project, in that the desire to transform
everything
-every object, every living thing, every fact on the
planet-in its image had not been realized to the same extent by any
preceding ideology. Neoliberalism happens to be the ideology-unlike the
three major forerunners in the last 250 years-that has the fortune of
coinciding with technological change on a scale that makes its complete
penetration into every realm of being a possibility for the first time in
human history.
From the early 1930s, when the Great Depression threatened the classical
liberal consensus (the idea that markets were self-regulating, and the state
should play no more than a night-watchman role), until the early 1970s, when
global instability including currency chaos unraveled it,
the democratic world lived under the Keynesian paradigm
: markets were
understood to be inherently unstable, and the interventionist hand of
government, in the form of countercyclical policy, was necessary to make
capitalism work, otherwise the economy had a tendency to get out of whack
and crash.
It's an interesting question if it was the stagflation of the 1970s,
following the unhitching of the United States from the gold standard and the
arrival of the oil embargo, that brought on the neoliberal revolution, with
Milton Friedman
discrediting fiscal policy and advocating a by-the-numbers monetarist policy
,
or if it was neoliberalism itself, in the form of Friedmanite ideas that the
Nixon administration was already pursuing, that made stagflation and the end
of Keynesianism inevitable.
It should be said that neoliberalism thrives on prompting crisis after
crisis, and has proven more adept than previous ideologies at exploiting
these crises to its benefit, which then makes the situation worse, so that
each succeeding crisis only erodes the power of the working class and makes
the wealthy wealthier. There is a certain self-fulfilling aura to
neoliberalism, couched in the jargon of economic orthodoxy, that has
remained immune from political criticism, because of the dogma that was
perpetuated-
by
Margaret Thatcher and her acolytes-that There Is No Alternative (TINA)
.
Neoliberalism is excused for the crises it repeatedly brings on-one can
think of a regular cycle of debt and speculation-fueled emergencies in the
last forty years, such as
the developing country debt overhang of the 1970s
,
the savings and loan crisis of the 1980s
,
the Asian currency crisis of the 1990s
, and the subprime mortgage crisis
of the 2000s-better than any ideology I know of. This is partly because its
very existence as ruling ideology is not even noted by the population at
large, which continues to derive some residual benefits from the welfare
state inaugurated by Keynesianism but has been led to believe by neoliberal
ideologues to think of their reliance on government as worthy of provoking
guilt, shame, and melancholy, rather than something to which they have
legitimate claim.
It is not surprising to find neoliberal multiculturalists-
comfortably
established in the academy
-likewise demonizing, or othering, not
Muslims, Mexicans, or African Americans, but working-class whites (the
quintessential Trump proletariat) who have a difficult time accepting the
fluidity of self-definition that goes well with neoliberalism, something
that we might call the market capitalization of the self.
George W. Bush's useful function was to introduce necessary crisis into a
system that had grown too stable for its own good; he injected desirable
panic, which served as fuel to the fire of the neoliberal revolution. Trump
is an apostate-at least until now-in desiring chaos on terms that do not
sound neoliberal, which is unacceptable; hence
Jeb Bush's
characterization of him as the "candidate of chaos.
" Neoliberalism
loves
chaos, that has been its modus operandi since the early 1970s,
but only the kind of chaos it can direct and control.
To go back to origins, the Great Depression only ended conclusively with
the onset of the second world war, after which Keynesianism had the upper
hand for thirty-five years. But just as the global institutions of
Keynesianism, specifically the IMF and the World Bank, were being founded at
the New Hampshire resort of Bretton Woods in 1944, the founders of the
neoliberal revolution, namely Friedrich Hayek, Ludwig von Mises, Milton
Friedman,
and
others were forming the Mount Pelerin Society (MPS) at the eponymous Swiss
resort in 1947
, creating the ideology which eventually defeated
Keynesianism and gained the upper hand during the 1970s.
So what exactly is neoliberalism, and how is it different from classical
liberalism, whose final manifestation came under Keynesianism?
Neoliberalism believes that markets are self-sufficient unto themselves,
that they do not need regulation, and that they are the best guarantors of
human welfare. Everything that promotes the market, i.e., privatization,
deregulation, mobility of finance and capital, abandonment of
government-provided social welfare, and the reconception of human beings as
human capital, needs to be encouraged, while everything that supposedly
diminishes the market, i.e., government services, regulation, restrictions
on finance and capital, and conceptualization of human beings in
transcendent terms, is to be discouraged.
"... Demanding a no-strings-attached welfare system, the left seeks to cut government out of social provisioning while at the same time relying on government for regular financial support. ..."
"... How will we provide adequate human and material resources for our growing elderly populations? How can we meaningfully restructure social production to address climate change? ..."
"... no amount of volunteerism, goodwill, or generous welfare payments can adequately meet these demands. Indeed, only government can afford to mobilize the persons and materials needed to answer such demands. ..."
"... I really need to be kicked out of the house, to go someplace and do something I don't really want to do for 8 hours a day. ..."
"... Interesting read society has become so corrupt at every level from personal up through municipal, regional and federal governments that it cant even identify the problem, let alone a solution ..."
By Scott Ferguson, Assistant Professor, University of South Florida. He is also a Research
Scholar at the Binzagr Institute for Sustainable Prosperity. His current research and pedagogy focus
on Modern Monetary Theory and critiques of neoliberalism, aesthetic theory; the history of digital
animation and visual effects; and essayistic writing across media platforms. Originally published
at Arcade
James Livingston has responded to
my critique of his Aeon essay,
"
Fuck Work ." His response was published in the Spanish magazine
Contexto y Accion . One can find an English translation
here . What follows is my reply:
Livingston and I share many political aims. We each wish to reverse wealth polarization, to alleviate
systemic poverty, and to enable diverse forms of human flourishing. The professor and I disagree,
however, on the nature of contemporary economic reality. As a consequence, we propose very different
political programs for realizing the sort of just and prosperous society we both desire.
In his rejoinder to my critique, Livingston proudly affirms his commitment to Liberalism and makes
a Liberal understanding
of political economy the basis of his proposed alternative to the neoliberal catastrophe. Deeming
government an intrinsically authoritarian institution, he situates civil society as a realm of self-actualization
and self-sufficiency. The problem, as he formulates it, is that while capitalist innovation has made
it possible to increasingly automate production, the capitalist class has robbed us of our purchasing
power and preserved a punishing wage relation. This prevents us from enjoying the fruits of automated
labor. Livingston's solution is to reject an outmoded Protestant work ethic; tax the unproductive
corporate profits that fuel financial markets; and redistribute this money in the form of a Universal
Basic Income (UBI). The result: each member of civil society will be liberated to associate, labor,
or play as they please.
Like Livingston, the left has long flirted with Liberal dreams that autonomous and self-regulating
associations might one day replace the difficulties of political governance. After the Great Recession,
these dreams have
returned . They imagine algorithms and robots to be politically neutral. They seek a life of
shared luxury through automatically dispensed welfare payments. This sounds nice at first blush.
However, such reveries are at best naive and, at worst, politically defeatist and self-destructive.
Abandoned and abused by neoliberal governance, today's pro-UBI left doubles down on neoliberalism's
do-it-yourself caretaking. It envisions delimited forms of monetary redistribution as the only means
to repair the social order. Above all, it allows anti-authoritarianism to overshadow the charge of
social provisioning.
Livingston's articulation of this dream is especially fierce. As such, it crystallizes UBI's central
contradiction: Demanding a no-strings-attached welfare system, the left seeks to cut government
out of social provisioning while at the same time relying on government for regular financial support.
This position, which fails to rethink the structure of social participation as a whole, leaves
disquieting political questions unanswered: How will we provide adequate human and material resources
for our growing elderly populations? How can we meaningfully restructure social production to address
climate change? How do we preserve a place for the arts outside of competitive MFA programs
and speculative art markets?
Such questions are unforgivingly realistic, not pie-in-the-sky musings. And no amount of volunteerism,
goodwill, or generous welfare payments can adequately meet these demands. Indeed, only government
can afford to mobilize the persons and materials needed to answer such demands. And while algorithms
and robots are powerful social instruments, we cannot rely on automation to overcome extant logics
of
discrimination and exclusion . To do so is to forget that social injustice is politically conditioned
and that government alone holds the monetary capacity to transform economic life in its entirety.
I really need to be kicked out of the house, to go someplace and do something I don't really
want to do for 8 hours a day.
I've already got too much time to fritter away. I'm fairly certain, giving me more time and
money to make my own choices would not make the world a better place.
Hmm. No "sarc" tag Really?? More free time and money wouldn't be a benefit to you and your
surroundings? That's hard to believe. To each their own I guess.
I can see it both ways. Most people see that as sarcasm but I have more than a few friends
whose jobs are probably the only thing keeping them out of jail. Idle hands being the devil's
plaything and all.
For instance, the last thing you want to give a recovering addict is a lot of free time and
money.
As a recovering addict, I must vehemently disagree with ur statement. I would love to have
as much money and free time on my hands to work on the fun hobbies that keep me sober like Political
Activism, Blogging, Film, etc.
At no point in the "Job Guarantee" discussion did anyone advocate forcing you to go to work.
However, if you decide to get ambitious and want a paid activity to do that helps make society
a better place to live, wouldn't it be nice to know that there'd be work available for you to
do?
Right now, that's not so easy to do without lots of effort searching for available jobs and
going through a cumbersome and dispiriting application process that's designed to make you prove
how much you REALLY, REALLY want the job.
For me, the real silver bullet is the moral/political argument of a Job Guarantee vs. Basic
Income. Job Guarantee gives people a sense of pride and accomplishment and those employed and
their loved ones will vigorously defend it against those who would attack them as 'moochers'.
Also, defenders can point to the completed projects as added ammunition.
Basic income recipients have no such moral/political defense.
The guaranteed jobs could be for a 20 or 30 hour week. I fear they won't be as most job guarantee
advocates seem to be Calvinists who believe only work gets you into heaven though.
It's a common 'argument' by people defending status quo. They claim something is ridiculous
and easily disproven and then leave it at that. They avoid making argument that are specific enought
to be countered, because thay know they don't actually have a leg to stand on.
Limitless may not have been the best word. Of course the government can print money till the
cows come home; but MMT recommends stopping when you approach the real resource constraint.
Sloppy language does not help so thank you. So the next question is how do constraints (natural
or other) affect spending power under MMT, is it asymptotic, is there an optimum, discontinuities?
The other major issue is that although spending power is controlled by legislatures it must
be recognized that wealth creation starts with the work of people and physical capital, not by
the good graces of gov't. MMT makes it sound as if money exists just because gov't wills it to
exist, which is true in the sense of printing pieces of paper but not in the sense of actual economic
production and wealth creation. Taxes are not the manner in which gov't removes money but it really
is the cost of gov't sitting on top of the economic production by people together with physical
capital.
Help me understand your last sentence. So, if I'm a farmer, the time I spend digging the field
is economic production, but the time I spend sitting at my desk planing what to plant and deciding
which stump to remove next and how best to do it, and the time I spend making deals with the bank
etc, these are all unproductive hours that make no contribution to my economic production?
Yes, Jamie. And as you point out, Ferguson is giving us a better definition of "productive".
He is not saying productivity produces profits – he is saying productive work fixes things and
makes them better. But some people never get past that road bump called "productivity."
The author is making some assumptions, and then goes and takes them apart. It's possilble (I
didn't read the article he refers to), that the assumptions he responds to directly are made by
the article, but that doesn't make them universal assumptions about UBI.
UBI is not a single exact prescription – and in the same way, JG is not a single exact prescription.
The devil, in both cases, is in details. In fact, there is not reason why JG and UBI should be
mutually exclusive as a number of people are trying to tell us.
and if we talk about governance – well, the super-strong governance that JG requires to function
properly is my reason why I'd prefer a strong UBI to most JG.
Now and then we get a failed UBI example study – I'm not going to look at that. But the socialist
regimes of late 20th century are a prime example of failed JG. Unlike most visitor or writers
here, I had the "privilege" to experience them first hand, and thanks but no thanks. Under the
socialist regimes you had to have a job (IIRC, the consitutions stated you had "duty" to work).
But that become an instrument of control. What job you could have was pretty tightly controlled.
Or, even worse, you could be refused any job, which pretty much automatically sent you to prison
as "not working parasite".
I don't expect that most people who support JG have anything even remotely similar in mind,
but the governance problems still stay. That is, who decides what jobs should be created? Who
decides who should get what job, especially if not all jobs are equal (and I don't mean just equal
pay)? Can you be firedt from your JG job if you go there just to collect your salary? (The joke
in the socialist block was "the government pretends to pay us, we pretend to work"). Etc. etc.
All of the above would have to be decided by people, and if we should know something, then
we should know that any system run by people will be, sooner or later, corrupted. The more complex
it is, the easier it is to corrupt it.
Which is why I support (meaningfull, meaning you can actually live on it, not just barely survive)
Basic Income over JG. The question for me is more whether we can actually afford a meaningful
one, because getting a "bare survival one" does more damage than good.
That's why any JG would have to be filtered through local governments or, more ideally, non-profit
community organizations, and not a centralized government. New York City's
Summer Youth
Employment Program offers a good model for this. Block grants of money are delivered to a
wide range of community organizations, thus ensuring no one group has a monopoly, and then individual
businesses, other community groups, schools, non-profits, etc., apply to the community organizations
for an "employee" who works for them, but the payment actually comes from the block grant. The
government serves as the deliverer of funds, and provides regulatory oversight to make sure no
abuses are taking place, but does not pick and choose the jobs/employers themselves.
I don't see it as either/or. Provide a UBI and a job guarantee. The job would pay over and
above the UBI bit, if for some reason, you don't want to work or cannot, you still have your Universal
BASIC Income as the floor through which you cannot fall.
Private employers will have to offer better conditions and pay to convince people getting UBI
to work for them. They wouldn't be able to mistreat workers because they could simply bolt because
they will not fall into poverty if they quit. The dirtbags needing workers won't be able to overpay
themselves at the expense of workers because they feel completely free to leave if you are a self
worshipping douche.
It seems that over time the "floor through which you cannot fall" becomes just that, the floor,
as the effect of a UBI becomes the universal value, well floor.
Was going to be my response as well, why such absolute yes or no thinking? The benefit of the
UBI is that is recognizes that we have been increasing productivity for oh the last couple millenia
for a REASON! To have more leisure time! Giving everyone the opportunity to work more and slave
away isn't much of a consolation. We basically have a jobs guarantee/floor right now, its called
McDonalds, and no one wants it.
Labor needs a TON of leverage, to get us back to a reasonable Scandinavian/Aussie standard
of living. Much more time off, much better benefits, higher wages in general. UBI provides this,
it says screw you employers unless you are willing to offer reasonable conditions we are going
to stay home.
I'm curious to know if either of these systems work if there is no guarantee of "free" access
to healthcare through single-payer or a national insurance? I'm only marginally informed about
UBI or MMT, and haven't found adequate information regarding either as to how healthcare is addressed.
It seems clear that neither could work in the US, specifically for the reason that any UBI would
have to be high enough to pay insane insurance premiums, and cover catastrophic illnesses without
pushing someone into bankruptcy.
Can anyone clarify, or point me in the direction of useful information on this?
There are different flavors of UBI, most don't mention healthcare at all. Milton Friedman's
UBI flavor prefers that it replace all government spending on social welfare to reduce the government's
overall burden. MMT says there is no sense in not having single payer.
My thought on the last thread of this nature is that if UBI were ever enacted in the U.S.,
healthcare access would become restricted to those with jobs (and the self-employeed with enough
spare income to pay for it). You don't have to be healthy to collect a subsistence payment from
to the government.
Here in Canada we have universal healthcare, as well as a basic income guarantee for low income
families with children and seniors. There is a movement to extend that as well,
details of one plan here .
In theory, I think it could be possible for the JG to build and staff hospitals and clinics
on a non-profit basis or at least price-controlled basis, if so directed (*huge* question, of
course - by what agency? govt? local councils?). Ditto housing, schools, infrastructure, all kinds
of socially useful and pleasant stuff. However, the way the US tends to do things, I would expect
instead that a BIG or a JG would, as others have pointed out, simply enable employers to pay less,
and furthermore, subsidize the consumption of overpriced goods and services. IOW, a repeat of
the ACA, just a pump to get more $$ to the top.
The problem is not the money, but that the Americans govern themselves so poorly. No idea what
the cure could be for that.
Fixing worker pay is actually VERY easy. It's purely a political issue. You tie corporate taxes
to worker compensation. More specifically, you set the maximum compensation for CEOs at NO MORE
than (say) 50x average worker pay in their corporation (INCLUDING temps AND off-shored workers
IN US DOLLARS no passing the buck to Temp Agencies or claiming that $10/day in hellhole country
x is equivalent to $50k in the US. NO, it is $10/day or $3650/yr, period). At 50x, corporate taxation
is at the minimum (say something like 17%). The corporation is free to pay their top exec more
than 50x but doing so will increase the corporate tax to 25%. You could make it step-wise: 51-60x
average worker pay = 25% corporate tax, 61-80x = 33% corporate tax, etc.
It is time to recognize that CEO pay is NOT natural or earned at stratospheric levels. THE
best economic times in the US were between the 50s to early 70s when top tax rates were much higher
AND the average CEO took home maybe 30x their average worker pay. We CAN go back to something
like that with policy. Also, REQUIRE that labor have reps on the Board of Directors, change the
rules of incorporation so it is NOT mainly focused on "maximizing profit or shareholder value".
It must include returning a social good to the local communities within which corporations reside.
Profits and maximizing shareholder value must be last (after also minimizing social/environmental
harm). Violate the rules and you lose your corporate charter.
There is no right to be a corporation. Incorporation is a privilege that is extended by government.
The Founders barred any corporate interference in politics, and if a corporation broke the law,
it lost its charter and the corporate officers were directly held responsible for THEIR actions.
Corporations don't do anything, people in charge of corporations make the decisions and carry
out the actions so NO MORE LLCs. If you kill people due to lax environmental protections or worker
safety, etc, then the corporate officers are DIRECTLY and personally responsible for it. THEY
made it happen, not some ethereal "corporation".
Durned hippys imagine an IRON boot stamping on a once human face – forever. OK, now everybody
back to the BIG house. Massa wanna reed yew sum Bible verses. We're going to be slaves to the
machines, ya big silly!
I'm sceptical whether a guaranteed job policy would actually work in reality. There are plenty
of historical precedents – for example, during the Irish potato famine because of an ideological
resistence to providing direct aid, there were many 'make work' schemes. You can still see the
results all along the west coast of Ireland – little harbours that nobody has ever used, massive
drainage schemes for tiny amounts of land, roads to nowhere. It certainly helped many families
survive, but it also meant that those incapacitated by starvation died as they couldn't work.
It was no panacea.
There are numerous practical issues with make work schemes. Do you create a sort of 2-layer
public service – with one level permanent jobs, the other a variety of 'temporary' jobs according
to need? And if so, how do you deal with issues like:
1. The person on a make work scheme who doesn't bother turning up till 11 am and goes home
at 2.
2. Regional imbalances where propering region 1 is desperately short of workers while neighbouring
region 2 has thousands of surplus people sweeping streets and planting trees.
3. What effect will this have on business and artistic innovation? Countries with strong welfare
systems such as Sweden also tend to have a very high number of start ups because people can quit
their jobs and devote themselves to a couple of years to develop that business idea they always
had, or to start a band, or try to make a name as a painter.
4. How do you manage the transition from 'make-work' to permanent jobs when the economy is
on the up, but people decide they prefer working in their local area sweeping the street?
I can see just as many practical problems with a job guarantee as with universal income. Neither
solution is perfect – in reality, some sort of mix would be the only way I think it could be done
effectively.
To provide some context for passers-by, this seemingly too-heated debate is occurring in the
context of the upcoming Podemos policy meeting in Spain, Feb 10-12.. Podemos seems to have been
unaware of MMT, and has subscribed to sovereign-economy-as-household policies. Ferguson, along
with elements of the modern left, has been trying to win Podemos over to MMT-based policies like
a Jobs Guarantee rather than the Basic Income scheme they have heretofore adopted rather uncritically.
(Of course Spain is far from "sovereign", but that's another matter :-(
1) Fire them
2) Prospering region 1 isn't "short on workers" they just all have private jobs.
3) What a good argument to also have single payer healthcare and some sort of BIG as well as the
JG
4) private companies must offer a better compensation package. One of the benefits of the JG is
that it essentially sets the minimum wage.
Yeah, those are pretty good answers right off the bat. (Obviously I guess for #1 they can reapply
in six months or something.)
Plutonium- I feel like true progress is trading shitty problems for less shitty ones. I can't
see any of the major proponents like Kelton, Wray or Mitchell ever suggesting that the JG won't
come with it's own new sets of challenges. On the overly optimistic side though: you could look
at that as just necessitating more meaningful JG jobs addressing those issues.
I was writing that on my phone this morning. Didn't have time to go into great detail. Still,
I wanted to point out that just because there will be additional complexities with a JG, doesn't
mean there aren't reasonable answers.
1. If you fire them its not a jobs guarantee. Many people have psychological/social issues
which make them unsuitable for regular hours jobs. If you don't have a universal basic income,
and you don't have an absolute jobs guarantee, then you condemn them and their families to poverty.
2. The area is 'short on workers' if it is relying on a surplus public employee base for doing
things like keeping the streets clean and helping out in old folks homes. It is implicit in the
use of government as a source of jobs of last resort that if there is no spare labour, then you
will have nobody to do all the non-basic works and you will have no justification for additional
infrastructure spend.
3. You miss the point. A basic income allows people time and freedom to be creative if they
choose. When the Conservatives in the early 1990's in the UK restricted social welfare to under
25's, Noel Gallagher of Oasis predicted that it would destroy working class rock n roll, and leave
the future only to music made by rich kids. He was proven right, which is why we have to listen
to Coldplay every time we switch on the radio.
4. This ignores the reality that jobs are never spread evenly across regions. One of the biggest
problems in the US labour market is that the unemployed often just can't afford to move to where
the jobs are available. A guaranteed job scheme organised on local govenment basis doesn't address
this, if anything it can exacerbate the problem. And the simplest and easiest way to have a minimum
wage is to have a minimum wage.
1) Kelton always talks about a JG being for people "willing and able to work." If you are not
willing I don't really have much sympathy for you. If you are not able due to psychological factors
or disability, then we can talk about how you get on welfare or the BIG/UBI. The JG can't work
in a vacuum. It can't be the only social program.
2) Seems unrealistic. You are just searching to find something wrong. If there is zero public
employment, that means private employment is meeting all labor demands.
3) I have no idea what you are going on about. I'm in a band. I also have a full-time job.
I go see local music acts all the time. There are a few that play music and don't work because
they have rich parents, but that's the minority. Most artists I know manage to make art despite
working full time. I give zero shits what corporate rock is these days. If you don't like what's
on the radio turn it off. There are thousands of bands you've never heard of. Go find them.
4) Again, you are just searching for What-If reasons to crap on the JG. You try to keep the
jobs local. Or you figure out free transportation. There are these large vehicles called busses
which can transport many people at once.
Yes these are all valid logistical problems to solve, but you present them like there are no
possible solutions. I can come up with several in less than 5 minutes.
For a more practical first step--how about getting rid of/slashing regressive and non-federal
income tax deductible sales taxes? shifting that tax burden to where income growth has been.
Democratic Party-run states/cities are the biggest offenders when it comes to high sales taxes.
universal basic income in the West + de facto open borders won't work. just making a reasonable
hypothesis.
There might be a psychological benefit to a jobs guarantee vs. UBI. There are a lot of people
that would much rather "earn" their income rather than directly receiving it.
Which of these tools do you posess:
( ) Machete, pick-axe, big old hemp bag
( ) Scattergun, hound, mirrored shades
( ) Short-shorts, bandeau top, knee pads
( ) RealTree camo ACUs, FLIR scope
( ) ephedrine, pseudoephedrine, fast car
A JG would begin to rebuild the trust and cooperation needed to have a society based on justice
instead of might makes right. Human life is based on obligations- we are all responsible to one
another for the social system to work. The problem is always about how to deal with cheaters and
shirkers. This problem is best solved by peer pressure and shaming- along with a properly functioning
legal system.
I get a kick out of the "make work" argument against a JG. With planned obsolescence as the
foundation of our economic system, it's just a more sophisticated way of digging holes and filling
them in again. Bring on robotic automation, and the capitalist utopia is reached. Soul crushing,
pointless labor can be sidelined and replaced with an unthinking and unfeeling machine in order
to generate profits. The one problem is people have no money to buy the cheep products. To solve
that dilemma, use the sovereign governments power to provide spending credits in the form of a
UBI. Capitalism is saved from is own contradictions- the can is kicked farther down the road.
The obligations we have to one another must be defined before any system organization can take
place. Right now, the elite are trying to have their cake and eat it too.
I agree with those who see a need for both programs. I think the critique of UBI here is a
good one, that raises many valid points. But I have trouble with a portion of it. For instance:
by eliminating forced unemployment, it would eradicate systemic poverty
treats 'poverty' as an absolute when it is a relative. No matter what programs are in place,
there will always be a bottom tier in our hierarchical society and those who constitute it will
always be 'impoverished' compared to those in higher tiers. This is the nature of the beast. Which
is why I prefer to talk about subsistence level income and degrees above subsistence. The cost
of living may not be absolutely fixed over time, but it seems to me to be more meaningful and
stable than the term 'poverty'. On the other hand, in a rent seeking economy, giving people an
income will not lift them out of poverty because rents will simply be adjusted to meet the rise
in resources. So UBI without rent control is meaningless.
Another point is that swapping forced unemployment for forced employment seems to me to avoid
some core issues surrounding how society provides for all its members. Proponents of the JG are
always careful to stress that no one is forced to work under the JG. They say things like, "jobs
for everyone who wants one". But this fails to address the element of coercion that underlies
the system. If one has no means to provide for oneself (i.e. we are no longer a frontier with
boundless land that anyone can have for cheap upon which they may strike out and choose the amount
of labor they contribute to procure the quality of life they prefer-if ever was such the case),
then jobs for "everyone who wants one" is simply disingenuous. There is a critical "needs" versus
"wants" discussion that doesn't generally come up when discussing JG. It's in there, of course,
but it is postponed until the idea is accepted to the point where setting an actual wage becomes
an issue. But even then, the wage set will bear on the needs versus wants of the employed, but
leaves out those foolish enough to not "want" a job. Whereas, in discussing UBI, that discussion
is front and center (since even before accepting the proposal people will ask, how much?, and
proper reasons must be given to support a particular amount-which again brings us to discussing
subsistence and degrees above it-the discussion of subsistence or better is "baked in" to the
discussion about UBI in a way that it is not when discussing the JG).
While UBI interests me as a possible route to a non-"means of production"-based economy, the
problem I see with it is that it could easily reduce the populace to living to consume. Given
enough funds to provide for the basics of living, but not enough to make any gains within society,
or affect change. It's growth for growth's sake, not as to serve society. Something is needed
to make sure people aren't just provided for, but have the ability to shape the direction of their
society and communities.
Where I work @3/4 of the staff already receives social security and yet it is not enough seems
to me human satisfaction is boundless and providing a relative minimum paper floor for everyone
is just. Yet the way our market is set up, this paper floor would be gobbled back up by the rentier
class anyway. So unless there is a miraculous change in our economic rent capture policies, we
are screwed
So yes, just describe to people precisely what it is – a 'paper' floor not something that
has firm footing yet acknowledges inequities inherent in our current currency distribution methods.
And of course couple this with a jobs guarantee. I have met way too many people in my life that
'fall through the cracks' .
why is no one bemoaning the rabid over-consumption of the complainers who suck up much more
than they will ever need, hoarding and complaining about people who do not have enough? the real
problem is rampant out of control parasites
But Ferguson should also adknowledge that Livingston has some points.
Why on earth we politically put limits to, for instance, public earning-spending while do not
put any limit to the net amount that one person can earn, spend and own?
Upward redistribution is what occurs in the neoliberal framework. UBI is distribution. Bear
in mind that even in the best employment conditions, not everybody can earn a salary. 100% employment
is unrealistic.
The people marketing UBI and MMT have hundreds of years of attempted social engineereing to
overcome. I referring to the " why people want what they want and why do they believe what they
believe." Why?
The only suggestion I have is that, since everybody has a different relationship to the concept
of work, the populations involved need to be smaller. Not necessarily fewer people, but more regions
or nation states that are actually allowed to try their ideas without being attacked by any existing
"empire" or "wanna be empire" via sanctions or militarily.
It is going to take many different regions, operating a variety of economic systems (not the
globalized private banking extraction method pushed down every one's throat whether they like
it or not) that people can gravitate in and out of freely.
People would have the choice to settle in the region that has rules and regulations that work
most for their lives and belief systems (which can change over time).
Looking at it from the perspective that there can be only one system that 300 million plus
people (like the USA) or the world must be under is the MAIN problem of social engineering. There
needs to be space carved out for these many experiments.
First, congratulations to everyone who managed to read this all the way through. IMO both this
(and the guy he's responding to), seem like someone making fun of academic writing. Perhaps with
the aid of a program that spits out random long words.
FWIW, when I lived in Japan, they had a HUGE, construction-based make-work program there, and
it was the worst of both worlds: hard physical labor which even the laborers knew served no purpose,
PLUS constant street obstruction/noise for the people in the neighborhoods of these make-work
projects. Not to mention entire beautiful mountains literally concreted over in the name of 'jawbs'.
Different thought: I'm not sold on UBI either, but wouldn't it mess up the prostitution/sex
trafficking game, almost as a side effect? Has anyone heard UBI fans promote it on that basis?
The sound and fury of disagreement is drowning out what both authors agree on: guaranteed material
standards of living and reduced working time. If that's the true goal, we should say so explicitly
and hammer out the details of the best way to attain it.
Interesting read society has become so corrupt at every level from personal up through municipal,
regional and federal governments that it cant even identify the problem, let alone a solution
all forms of government and their corresponding programs will fail until that government is
free from the monetary influences of individuals / corporations and military establishments, whether
it be from donations to a political establishment or kick backs to politicians and legislators
or government spending directed to buddies and cohorts
I don't pretend to understand the arguments at the level to which they are written, but at
the basic level of true governance it must but open and honest, this would allow the economy to
function and be evaluated, and then at that point we could offer up some ideas on how to enhance
areas as needed or scale back areas that were out of control or not adding value to society as
a whole
We stand at a place that has hundreds of years of built in corruption into the model, capable
so far of funneling money to the top regardless of the program implemented by the left or the
right sides of society
first step is to remove all corruption and influence from governance at every level until
then all the toils toward improvement are pointless as no person has witnessed a "free market
" in a couple hundred years, all economic policy has been slanted by influence and corruption
we can not fix it until we actually observe it working, and it will never work until it is
free of bias / influence
no idea how we get there . our justice system is the first step in repairing any society
Setting aside ground water contamination issues associated
with fracking, barring a major reduction in per capita energy
use even if (when) you replace coal with natural gas the CO2
emission rate is still a problem. Switching to non-fossil
fuel sources needs to be on the to-do list.
EPA said fracking isn't having "widespread, systematic
impacts on drinking water."
Even with non-fossil fuel
sources, C02 emissions rate will still be a problem. You
still need to build the wind turbines and transport them to
locations, you can't get do that until the transportation
sector reduces emissions.
My impression is that the current price of natural gas in
the USA is unsustainable. It is a kind of "subprime gas".
A side effect (externality if you wish) of fracking is
junk bonds bubble. At one point anybody with a lease can get
a loan to drill. Not that different from subprime, just much
smaller. Many people are not aware about it.
In physics, energy economics, and ecological energetics, energy returned on energy invested
(EROEI or ERoEI); or energy return on investment (EROI), is the ratio of the amount of usable
energy (the exergy) delivered from a particular energy resource to the amount of exergy used to
obtain that energy resource.[1][2] It is a distinct measure from energy efficiency as it does
not measure the primary energy inputs to the system, only usable energy.
A fuel or energy must have an EROEI ratio of at least 3:1 to be considered viable as a prominent
fuel or energy source.[3][4]
EROEI = (Energy Delivered)/(Energy Required to Deliver that Energy)
When the EROEI of a resource is less than or equal to one, that energy source becomes a net "energy
sink", and can no longer be used as a source of energy, but depending on the system might be useful
for energy storage (for example a battery). A related measure Energy Store On Energy Invested
(ESOEI) is used to analyze storage systems.[6][7]
This article does a good job of introducing a very complex subject, but a bad job of actually
comparing alternatives. As the author lays out, there are EROIs, FERs, EERs and other measures
of energy balance that all have different boundaries and tell a different story. One cannot cherry-pick
one source's EROI to compare with another's EER. It is long past time, but the physics community
is finally getting involved.
There is an excellent paper just published that goes the furthest yet in developing a rigorous,
apples-to-apples comparison of electrical power generations alternatives (Weißbach et al. "Energy
Intensities, EROIs (energy Returned on Invested), and Energy Payback Times of Electricity Generating
Power Plants." Energy 52 (April 1, 2013): 210–221. doi:10.1016/j.energy.2013.01.029).
The key they have found is to normalize not just across power quantity, but also quality.
A key aspect of quality is "usability," which is the degree to which the supply of power matches
the real-time demand. Intermittent and invariable baseload power sources must be adjusted for
the amount of buffering necessary to match their output to the real world of variable demand.
The study authors did this by requiring each source to have the overcapacity and storage necessary
to be compatible with a large international European grid scenario, and they used pumped-hydro
power storage parameters since it is today's most cost-effective option for storage and buffering.
The study is behind a paywall but the results have been posted online and are being updated as
newer data is reviewed (
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aux2QwQckeWEdE9UbHNKR3l6THItNi1RTUdxa1RrdUE#gid=0).
In their analysis, they found that a minimum EROI of 7:1 was necessary for economic viability.
With that in mind, here are their results:
Between 2008 and 2013, China's fledgling solar-electric panel industry dropped world prices by
80 percent, a stunning achievement in a fiercely competitive high-tech market. China had leapfrogged
from nursing a tiny, rural-oriented solar program in the 1990s to become the globe's leader in what
may soon be the world's largest renewable energy source.
The future is renewable electric. Dirty BigOil is the past.
BigAuto knows it is true. Everyone is working on electric autos.
"The future is renewable electric. Dirty BigOil is the past.
BigAuto knows it is true. Everyone is working on electric autos."
This is not IT, and you are wrong. For private car fleet eclectic might be OK outside of
northern states (where you can freeze in the electrical car in winter) and might be even preferred
solution for southern states if (and only if) the Federal government provides a couple of hundred
billion for the grid upgrade. That's much less that was spend on Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
So I think this is doable.
The key problem is that the current grid is unable of delivering the necessary among of
electricity at night (where most of eclectic car should be charged) if the density of electrical
cars become sizable, let's say one out of ten.
At this moment you need not only expand "renewable" energy capacity (wind and solar, preferably
wind) but also to build a lot of "buffer" gas fired generating stations to balance wind and
solar energy stream and accommodate "bad days" (no wind, no sun) as well as high voltage East-West
lines to take advantage of solar output dependence on the time zone.
To charge 24KW Leaf battery you need 24/8=3 KW/h socket in your house. At 110v that's 27
ampere. Something like an eclectic stove up all the night or additional three 1 KW air conditioners.
That's a lot ...
Solar capacity is growing
exponentially in this country. Prices for installed capacity
have collapsed at a Moore's Law-like rate. Employment in the
sector is large and expanding. It employs more people than
the coal industry.
Tom says solar entrepreneurship has always "ended badly",
but I think he is looking at the wrong metrics. Over
enthusiastic investors have lost a bunch on solar, but the
benefit to the American people is great.
Similarly, if we just focus on comparatives with China we
can also find bad things, like how they are installing more
capacity and net exporters of panels. But again those are not
great metrics. Panel manufacturing is now so inexpensive that
its commodified and there is little profit in it. Smile curve
stuff. And their advantage in installed capacity and capacity
growth is a huge net positive for the world's climate. We
should try to catch up, not because we need to beat them, but
rather because we all need to get clean.
You said it had always ended badly in the past, but in the
past we've seen collapsing prices and rising employment and
capacity, which in a big picture view is a huge success
already.
Like I said ... it depends on the metrics one
looks at.
== quote ==
In 2015, the United States generated about 4 trillion
kilowatthours of electricity.1 About 67% of the electricity
generated was from fossil fuels (coal, natural gas, and
petroleum).
Major energy sources and percent share of total U.S.
electricity generation in 2015:1
• Coal = 33%
• Natural gas = 33%
• Nuclear = 20%
• Hydropower = 6%
• Other renewables = 7% • Biomass = 1.6%
• Geothermal = 0.4%
• Solar = 0.6%
• Wind = 4.7%
It might well be that "human induced climate change"
enthusiasts are barking to the wrong tree.
Oil depletion might take care of the "climate change" (as
well as "excessive" humans) even without Trump or and other
politician. This is probably a matter of a decade or two.
The key here is proactive switching the use private car
fleet to more economical models and without draconian
measures such as $4 per gallon gas or $1K per cubic
centimeter of engine volume tax the process is very slow.
Obama administration was pretty inactive in this area,
despite all rhetoric.
There is no justification of using full size SUV or light
truck for communizing to work unless you agree to pay extra
for this privilege.
About rich bastards in Finance and Sillycon Valley going all Prepper,
figuring out ways to safeguard their wealth and comfort and privilege if/when
SHTF and our society collapses.
The good news: IF SHTF in a way such as they fear, the gloves get to come
off and there'd be no law enforcement to protect them. It becomes 1%er hunting
season.
The thing is I really truly suspect that this is how the rich think.
It's enough to make one sensibly and rationally hate the rich, if one
didn't already that is.
"In private Facebook groups, wealthy survivalists swap tips on gas
masks, bunkers, and locations safe from the effects of climate change."
never mind the absurdity of imagining there are private FB groups,
native Americans are facing down the full force of the police state to
protect the environment and their land out of a larger purpose and these
rich people who may actually have some influence make it their priority
to just personally be somewhere safe from the effects of climate change
(as if that were possible haha). Like Gandhi is rumored to have said:
Western civilization – it would be a good idea.
I think you're right in how they think. "I would rather spend 1,000
dollars on myself then give 1 dollar to help someone else (and protect
myself in the long run)" does seem to be the thought process.
To continue in that vein. "But you would be saving $999 if you gave
$1";
"What did they do to *earn* my largesse?"
Truly baffling when looked at rationally, but as a species we're
not all that rational.
Awww it's touching isn't it? The naive way the billionaires think their
pilots and armed guards would continue to obey their orders in a
doomsday/survival scenario
Ya, they really should play some Fallout. The real life
"vault-builders" may have other ideas.
Plus, the Machiavellian maxim about fortresses not being all that
safe, but the respect of the people being a true safeguard for a prince.
I mean if I was a multi-billionaire, I'd move to Detroit rebuild the
infrastructure, and turn the city into an estate with loyal citizens. I
keep them safe now, SHTF, they keep me safe. If nothing happens, then
they benefit greatly, and I'll be remembered by history as a decent
person.
I have to be "that guy," but the Vault Tec vaults were built as
elaborate social experiments to determine how to best transport
colonists on theorized, future spacecraft. The U.S. didn't intend
to launch a mass nuclear strike, but the Chinese saw the start of
the vault experiment as preparation for a first strike. The
fascists didn't even under their own experiments properly.
That's ok. I love the Fallout Lore. Is the space colony
Bethesda lore or Interplay lore?
I like that even the Vault-ride showing the colonies .they
were doing experiments on ride patrons, and the scientists doing
the experiments were having experiments performed on them!
Fun fact to keep in mind: those silos or other fancy bunkers with air
filtration to clean out chemical, biological, or nuclear contaminants
will not block carbon monoxide or any oxygen displacing gas. So, once
rich Silicon Valley or Wall St piece of shit bunkers down, you pull a car
or truck up to their air intakes and start pumping your exhaust in. Fill
the fancy bunker with carbon monoxide, halon, etc.
Bastards deserve the had chamber of their own making.
Seeing how the billionaires and cent-millionaires choose to use their
money for this makes a strong case for increasing taxes on them A LOT.
[For those who haven't read the article, it's about some entrepreneurial
Doomsdayers creating "condos" in abandoned missile silos near Wichita. Or
moving to New Zealand.]
I did love the part about how you need to take the
family
of the pilot who's manning your escape helicopter with you as you depart
from the crashing "civilization."
Derp, apparently they forgot that Bitcoins arnt accessible if theres no
electricity or internet. God, that makes the guys who stock up on gold coins
look like geniuses in comparison.
The point about surveillance cameras is silly. The purpose of such strategic
violence is to draw attention to the protest in a way that peaceful
demonstration doesn't. Producing footage of their actions is the whole point.
And, obviously, they are wearing masks.
Well, false flag or not, do notice how "high profile" the forces of
the State are when the venue of the action is in upper class areas, such
as trendy down towns, Government zones, and high rent suburbs. Contrast
that with the almost hands off attitude when the burning people, places
and things are lower class.
Feedback requested. I'm wondering if my thesis is sound or not.
ambrit
Neoliberals seem very concerned not to have a label. I posit this is because the founders of the
malign ideology didn't want their victims be able to reliably identify them. The deliberately and misleadingly
promote the view of the economy as an isolated scientific subject, like the interior of a test tube,
and treat politics and policy as a sort of exterior force, that can be isolated from the world of the
chemist and pushed off-to-one side. Neoclassic economists consistently and deliberately blinds itself
to politics and the dynamics of power, despite the deep entanglement of politics with everything economic.
"I look at politics and the economy and see one thing, not two things, and I am astonished at the extent
to which economists focus on the part they like to play with intellectually, while deliberately looking
away from what is probably the more important part. "
Notable quotes:
"... when left-wing people say that economists are defenders and supporters of the current order of things, they have a point: ignoring power relationships and their impact on the world supports the continued existence of those relationships. ..."
"... Neoliberalism may have been in part so successful because it appeals to (and tries to explain many things in terms of) a narrative of competition (and assignment of reward and acknowedlgement) by merit. ..."
"... Most people, esp. when young (still largely sheltered) or (still) successful, probably have an exaggerated assessment of their own merit (absolute and relative) - often actively instilled and encouraged by an "enabling" environment. ..."
"... It promises a lake Wobegon of sorts where everybody (even though not all!) are above average, and it is finally recognized. ..."
What Wren-Lewis misses, I think, is that something I've noticed in my roughly a decade of reading
economic blogs on the Internet. Economists have blinkers on. They want to view the economy as an
isolated scientific subject, like the interior of a test tube, and treat politics and policy as a
sort of exterior force, that can be isolated from the world of the chemist and pushed off-to-one
side. It seems fairly clear to me that the two elements--politics and the economy--are obviously
continuously co-mingled, and have all sorts of feedback loops running between them.
The discipline really consistently and deliberately blinds itself to politics and the dynamics
of power, despite the deep entanglement of politics with everything economic. Wren-Lewis admits that
macroeconomists "missed" the impacts of very high financial sector leverage, but finds that now that
economists have noticed it, and suggested remedies, that the power of bank lobby prevents those remedies
from being enacted. But shouldn't the political power of the finance lobby been a part of economic
analysis of the world along with the dangers of the financial sector's use of extreme leverage? Does
he think the two phenomena are unrelated?
Shouldn't economics pay more attention to the ongoing attempts of various groups to orient government
policy in their favor, just like they pay attention to the trade deficit and GDP numbers?
I look at politics and the economy and see one thing, not two things, and I am astonished at the
extent to which economists focus on the part they like to play with intellectually, while deliberately
looking away from what is probably the more important part. Its like economists obsessively focus
on the part that can be studied via numbers (money) and don't' want to think about the part that
is harder to look quantify (political policy). And there is a political issue there, which Mr. Wren-Lewis,
keeps ignoring in his defense of "mainstream economics."
The neoclassical economics tendency of not looking at power relationships makes power imbalances
and their great influence on economics seem like "givens" or "natural endowments", which is clearly
an intellectual sin of omission.
Many people, even within the halls of mainstream economics, note economists are "uncomfortable"
with distributional issues.
Whether they like the implication or not, economists need to acknowledge that this discomfort
has a profoundly conservative intellectual bias, in the sense that it make the status quo arrangement
of society seem "natural" and "normal", when it is obviously humanly constructed and not in any sense
"natural." So when left-wing people say that economists are defenders and supporters of the current
order of things, they have a point: ignoring power relationships and their impact on the world supports
the continued existence of those relationships.
Mr. Wren-Lewis seems like a nice guy, but he needs to take that simple home truth in. I'm not
sure why he seems to struggle so with acknowledging it.
Oh you mean the success of being able to raise asset prices without the growth in wages, make
education costly and unaffordable without student loans, not chargeable under bankruptcy, spruce
up employment figures by not counting the people who have stopped look for jobs because they cannot
find one, make people debt serfs, make savers miserable by keeping interest rates at zero and
making them take risks that they may not want to take though it is picking pennies in front of
a steamroller, keeping wages stagnant for decades and thus impoverishing people.
The list of successes is endless and you should be glad we are NOT talking about them. Because
if we do, the clan called economists might well be torched.
Neoliberalism may have been in part so successful because it appeals to (and tries to explain
many things in terms of) a narrative of competition (and assignment of reward and acknowedlgement)
by merit.
Most people, esp. when young (still largely sheltered) or (still) successful, probably
have an exaggerated assessment of their own merit (absolute and relative) - often actively instilled
and encouraged by an "enabling" environment.
A large part is probably the idea that "markets" are "objective" or at least "impartial" in
bringing out and rewarding merit - also technology and "data driven" technocratic management,
which are attributed "objectivity". All in the explicitly stated or implied service of impartially
recognizing merit and its lack.
It promises a lake Wobegon of sorts where everybody (even though not all!) are above average,
and it is finally recognized.
"Neoliberalism may have been in part so successful because it appeals to (and tries to explain
many things in terms of) a narrative of competition (and assignment of reward and acknowedlgement)
by merit."
"... Trump's success of failure will be measured by one thing: number of factory jobs added or lost, series MANEMP at the St. Louis FRED website.* If he doesn't create at least about 100,000 a year, he's in trouble. ..."
"... Disruption of neoliberal status quo and sending Hillary and some other neocon warmongers packing is already an achievement, not matter how you slice it. ..."
"... And a hissy fit that some factions of CIA demonstrated just before inauguration (it should not be considered as a monolithic organization; more like feudal kingdom of competing and often hostile to each other and to Pentagon and FBI factions ) was a reaction to this setback to neoconservatives in Washington. ..."
"... If Trump does what he promised in foreign policy: to end the wars for the expansion of neoliberal empire and to end of Cold War II with Russia it will be a huge achievement, even if the US economics not recover from Obama's secular stagnation (oil prices probably will go higher this year, representing an important headwind) . ..."
"... While we are writing those posts nuclear forces of both the USA and Russia are on high alert, and if something happen (and proliferation of computers make this more rather then less likely), the leaders of both countries have less then 20 minutes to decide about launching a full scale nuclear war. Actually Russia now has less time because of forward movement of NATO forces. ..."
Trump's success of failure will be
measured by one thing: number of factory jobs added or lost, series MANEMP at the St. Louis FRED
website.* If he doesn't create at least about 100,000 a year, he's in trouble.
*assuming the data
continues to be reported if it goes south on him, or he doesn't insist that the method of measuring
change. Something that is a real fear.
Slightly OT, there is one well-known wonky government data site I am watching. I think there are
better than 50/50 odds it disappears within the next two weeks.
Disruption of neoliberal status
quo and sending Hillary and some other neocon warmongers packing is already an achievement,
not matter how you slice it.
And a hissy fit that some factions of CIA demonstrated just before inauguration (it should
not be considered as a monolithic organization; more like feudal kingdom of competing and often
hostile to each other and to Pentagon and FBI factions ) was a reaction to this setback to
neoconservatives in Washington.
If Trump does what he promised in foreign policy: to end the wars for the expansion of neoliberal
empire and to end of Cold War II with Russia it will be a huge achievement, even if the US
economics not recover from Obama's secular stagnation (oil prices probably will go higher this
year, representing an important headwind) .
No further escalation in geopolitical conflicts represents an important tailwind and might
help.
While we are writing those posts nuclear forces of both the USA and Russia are on high alert,
and if something happen (and proliferation of computers make this more rather then less likely),
the leaders of both countries have less then 20 minutes to decide about launching a full scale
nuclear war. Actually Russia now has less time because of forward movement of NATO forces.
Professor Stephen Cohen thinks that this is worse then Cuban Missile Crisis and he is an
expert in this area.
"... Starting with three classic papers in the same 1982 issue of the Journal of Economic Theory, a large literature in economics has dealt with the implications for rational behavior of interacting with parties who, with small likelihood, may not be rational." ..."
"... It's why many non-experts believe academic economists' pretensions to science and accuracy is BS. ..."
"Similarly, in bargaining situations, "the sophisticated
negotiator may find it difficult to seem as obstinate as a
truly obstinate man." And when faced with a threat, it may be
profitable to be known to possess "genuine ignorance,
obstinacy or simple disbelief, since it may be more
convincing to the prospective threatener."
Starting with three classic papers in the same 1982 issue
of the Journal of Economic Theory, a large literature in
economics has dealt with the implications for rational
behavior of interacting with parties who, with small
likelihood, may not be rational."
It's why many non-experts believe academic economists'
pretensions to science and accuracy is BS.
Like Simon Wren-Lewis's blog-post the other day defending
mainstream economics.
It's like they come up with the political answer they want
and then rationalize it via math and rhetoric in a way that
would make Kellyanne Conway proud.
Simon Wren-Lewis does not understand (or more correctly does not want to understand) that
there is no economics, only political economy and that neoclassical economics are stooges and
propagandists of the Grand neoliberal Party, which pay them handsomely for role they are playing.
Hiding ideology under the smoke screen of economics is not new, but under neoliberalism it is became
status quo.
Notable quotes:
"... I have had a sense that during the 1970s conservative economists, "Chicago School" economists, become distinctly influential both in the field of economics and for policy makers. ] ..."
"... Economists have blinkers on. They want to view the economy as an isolated scientific subject, like the interior of a test tube, and treat politics and policy as a sort of exterior force, that can be isolated from the world of the chemist and pushed off-to-one side. ..."
"... It seems fairly clear to me that the two elements--politics and the economy--are obviously continuously co-mingled, and have all sorts of feedback loops running between them. The discipline really consistently and deliberately blinds itself to politics and the dynamics of power, despite the deep entanglement of politcs with everything economic. ..."
"... Wren-Lewis admits that macroeconomists "missed" the impacts of very high financial sector leverage, but finds that now that economists have noticed it, and suggested remedies, that the power of bank lobby prevents those remedies from being enacted. But shouldn't the political power of the finance lobby been a part of economic analysis of the world along with the dangers of the financial sector's use of extreme leverage? Does he think the two phenomena are unrelated? Shouldn't economics pay more attention to the ongoing attempts of various groups to orient government policy in their favor, just like they pay attention to the trade deficit and GDP numbers? ..."
"... I look at politics and the economy and see one thing, not two things, and I am astonished at the extent to which economists focus on the part they like to play with intellectually, while deliberately looking away from what is probably the more important part. Its like economists obsessively focus on the part that can be studied via numbers (money) and dont' want to think about the part that is harder to look quantify (political policy). And there is a political issue there, which Mr. Wren-Lewis, keeps ignoring in his defense of "mainstream economics." ..."
"... The neoclassical economics tendency of not looking at power relationships makes power imbalances and their great influence on economics seem like "givens" or "natural endowments", which is clearly an intellectual sin of omission. Many people, even within the halls of mainstream economics, note economists are "uncomfortable" with distributional issues. ..."
"... I don't see it as attacking economics as science tied to nature, as much as attacking economists who pick one "natural law" and apply it generally far outside the limits for which it applies, ignoring all the other laws that constrain it. ..."
"... "...but failing to ignore their successes,..." ..."
"... Oh you mean the success of being able to raise asset prices without the growth in wages, make education costly and unaffordable without student loans, not chargeable under bankruptcy, spruce up employment figures by not counting the people who have stopped look for jobs because they cannot find one, make people debt serfs, make savers miserable by keeping interest rates at zero and making them take risks that they may not want to take though it is picking pennies in front of a steamroller, keeping wages stagnant for decades and thus impoverishing people. The list of successes is endless and you should be glad we are NOT talking about them. Because if we do, the clan called economists might well be torched. ..."
7. So given all this, why do some continue to attack economists? On the left there are
heterodox economists who want nothing less than revolution, the
overthrow of mainstream economics. It is the same revolution that
their counterparts were saying was about to happen in the early 1970s
when I learnt my first economics. They want people to believe that the
bowdlerised version of economics used by neoliberals to support their
ideology is in fact mainstream economics.
8. The right on the other hand is uncomfortable when evidence
based economics conflicts with their politics. Their response is to
attack economists. This is not a new phenomenon, as I
showed
in connection with the famous letter from 364
economists. With austerity they cherry picked the minority of
economists who supported it, and then implemented a policy that even
some of them would have disagreed with. (Rogoff did not support the
cuts in public investment in 2010/11 which did most of the damage to
the UK economy.) The media did the rest of the job for them by hardly
ever talking about the majority of economists who did not support
austerity.
So given all this, why do some continue to attack economists?
On the left there are heterodox economists who want nothing
less than revolution, the overthrow of mainstream economics.
It is the same revolution that their counterparts were saying
was about to happen in the early 1970s when I learnt my first
economics. They want people to believe that the bowdlerised
version of economics used by neoliberals to support their
ideology is in fact mainstream economics.
-- Simon
Wren-Lewis
[ This is an important criticism that as such can surely
be further explained and analyzed at length.
The reference to the work of "heterodox economists" in the
1970s is completely unknown to me and I would be interested
in knowing more. After all, I have had a sense that during
the 1970s conservative economists, "Chicago School"
economists, become distinctly influential both in the field
of economics and for policy makers. ]
On the left there are heterodox economists who want nothing
less than revolution, the overthrow of mainstream
economics....
[ Since my understanding of heterodox
economics is that it ranges from cultural to ecological
perspectives to various degrees of institutional planning, I
do not understand what revolution Simon Wren-Lewis has in
mind. Also, again I do not understand what heterodox
economics was in the 1970s. ]
"heterodox economists" is sort of like "neoliberal". We are
talking what political types call a Big Tent. Alas the hyper
political types here cast this tent over everyone they might
disagree with. Which is sort of Simon's point.
What Wren-Lewis misses, I think, is that something I've
noticed in my roughly a decade of reading economic blogs on
the Internet. Economists have blinkers on. They want to view
the economy as an isolated scientific subject, like the
interior of a test tube, and treat politics and policy as a
sort of exterior force, that can be isolated from the world
of the chemist and pushed off-to-one side.
It seems fairly
clear to me that the two elements--politics and the
economy--are obviously continuously co-mingled, and have all
sorts of feedback loops running between them. The discipline
really consistently and deliberately blinds itself to
politics and the dynamics of power, despite the deep
entanglement of politcs with everything economic.
Wren-Lewis
admits that macroeconomists "missed" the impacts of very high
financial sector leverage, but finds that now that economists
have noticed it, and suggested remedies, that the power of
bank lobby prevents those remedies from being enacted. But
shouldn't the political power of the finance lobby been a
part of economic analysis of the world along with the dangers
of the financial sector's use of extreme leverage? Does he
think the two phenomena are unrelated? Shouldn't economics
pay more attention to the ongoing attempts of various groups
to orient government policy in their favor, just like they
pay attention to the trade deficit and GDP numbers?
I look at
politics and the economy and see one thing, not two things,
and I am astonished at the extent to which economists focus
on the part they like to play with intellectually, while
deliberately looking away from what is probably the more
important part. Its like economists obsessively focus on the
part that can be studied via numbers (money) and dont' want
to think about the part that is harder to look quantify
(political policy). And there is a political issue there,
which Mr. Wren-Lewis, keeps ignoring in his defense of
"mainstream economics."
The neoclassical economics tendency
of not looking at power relationships makes power imbalances
and their great influence on economics seem like "givens" or
"natural endowments", which is clearly an intellectual sin of
omission. Many people, even within the halls of mainstream
economics, note economists are "uncomfortable" with
distributional issues.
Whether they like the implication or
not, economists need to acknowledge that this discomfort has
a profoundly conservative intellectual bias, in the sense
that it make the status quo arrangement of society seem
"natural" and "normal", when it is obviously humanly
constructed and not in any sense "natural."
So when left-wing
people say that economists are defenders and supporters of
the current order of things, they have a point: ignoring
power relationships and their impact on the world supports
the contined existence of those relationships. Mr. Wren-Lewis
seems like a nice guy, but he needs to take that simple home
truth in. I'm not sure why he seems to struggle so with
acknowledging it.
The sense that the study of
economics is a political-economic study appears as a
rejection of what is supposed to be technocratic, supposed to
be the study of the mechanics of capitalism in a pure frame
as though capitalist mechanics were not continually defined.
The mechanics of pure capitalism dictates a technocratic
politics:
The point being we cannot ignore the politics? Simon gets the
politics but he still tries to get the analysis straight. I
find this to be a very important thing to do but then the
hyper political types call getting the analysis right lying.
Or something like that.
No, you pretty much seem to be missing my point completely.
It's not about getting the economics right and the politics
right as two separate exercises, it's about taking seriously
the interactions between the two. Who knows, maybe if someone
had modelled the positive feedback loops between lobbying
expenditures, industry-friendly public policy, and industry
profits for, say, the financial industry, someone might have
correctly predicted the financial crisis of 2008, and perhaps
even predicted that it would also be almost impossible for
the government to take the necessary action to correct the
problem politically, and that this would result in a sluggish
economy post-crisis. Whereas, keeping these issues separate
as we currently do makes it pretty much a sure bet that no
one will have a very good insight into how the real world
will unfold in the future.
Former Top British Official to Join BlackRock as an
Adviser
By CHAD BRAY
Other recent moves from Westminster, where Britain's
government is based, to the City, as the historical London
financial district is known, include:
William Hague, the former British foreign minister, who
this week announced that he was joining Citigroup as a senior
adviser.
Alistair Darling, a former member of Parliament and the
chancellor before Mr. Osborne, joined Morgan Stanley's board
of directors last year.
Gordon Brown, the former British prime minister, joined a
global advisory board at Pimco last year. The advisory
board's members include Ben Bernanke, the former Federal
Reserve chairman.
Tony Blair, the British prime minister before Mr. Brown,
joined JPMorgan Chase as a part-time senior adviser in 2008.
You think what's needed is a perfect plan. You are so wrong
because you lack life experience.
Tip for the neoliberal
pgl from the world of business, engineering, war and
politics.
A bad plan executed well beats a good plan executed badly.
You want to know why economists are being attacked.
The
Yellen Fed is rapidly digressing into a political entity.
The Fed is allegedly independent of politics, but Janet
Yellen's latest statements leave no doubt that she is more of
a political operative than an economist.
Three months ago, on October 14 2016, Yellen stated the
following:
Yellen Cites Benefits to Running Economy Hot for Some Time
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen offered an argument
for running the U.S. economy hot for a period to ensure
moribund growth doesn't become an entrenched feature of the
business landscape. That would mean letting unemployment fall
lower and spurring faster growth to boost consumer spending
and business investment.
Source: Wall Street Journal
Compare this language to Yellen's statement from last
week.
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen backed a strategy for
gradually raising interest rates, arguing that the central
bank wasn't behind the curve in containing inflation
pressures but nevertheless can't afford to allow the economy
to run too hot. Still, she saw dangers in permitting the
economy to overheat and inflation expectations to get out of
control. "Allowing the economy to run markedly and
persistently 'hot' would be risky and unwise," she said.
Source: Bloomberg.
So three months ago, running the economy "hot" was a good
idea. But today, it's a massive risk that we cannot afford to
take.
What changed in those three months?
Core inflation rose 0.1%. And the US closed 2016 with a
sub-2% growth rate for the year. Neither of those would
qualify as remotely "hot."
The main change? The GOP took the House, Senate, and White
House.
Bear in mind, Yellen's statement came a mere 24 hours
after then President-elect Donald Trump commented that the US
Dollar was "too strong."
So we have a Fed chair performing a 180% on running a
"hot" economy within three months and openly defying the new
administration's views on the US Dollar at a time when the
data doesn't support any of her claims.
Yellen may be seeing something everyone else is not, but
it is difficult to see this as anything other than political
hackery.
Uh dude, CPI is running at 2.1% yry and will rise further
when the 2016 oil "mirage" is removed unless we can get
another price collapse. Inflation was firming right under
your noise.
The economy from a monetary pov is indeed running hot.
This is what you do not understand. The structural issues
deal with the plutocratic tyranny that began under Reagan and
the zionist Trump cabal want to take to another level. Jack
London called it the Iron Heel.
First of all, core CPI (which according to the Fed is a
better measure) has been above 2% level since Nov 2015. So
CPI inflation around 2% level is NOT NEW NEWS. If rates
should rise because of inflation, then why did she not raise
them a lot before? Answer - because Obama was in office. The
plan was to get HRC into office and run a high pressure
economy with low unemployment and high inflation. That all
changed when the GOP won. Those are the facts. Yellen is
nothing but a disgusting political operative.
Your handle
is offensive. But hey, this is a free country. Or was, till
the liberal left decided that the first amendment only
applies if you agree with them.
Yet again, bad economics are behind most Fed related policy
proclamations justifying and criticizing Fed policy.
Do
don't think even Milton Friedman would accept any of it,
unless he let politics blind him to what was clear to him in
the 50s and 60s.
In the 50s and 60s, he would be debating the cratering
velocity, it's causes, and remedies. He would not be blindly
calling for increasing or decreasing the growth in money
supply.
Scott summer is calling blindly for higher growth in money
supply by blindly advocating "NGDP targeting" while ignoring
the exporting of "capital" and importing of labor, and
ignoring the falling velocity of money.
The two are likely closely tied, in that money created
that flows out of the US as "capital" where is pays no
workers in the US, thus never adding to US GDP, means the Fed
can't boost NGDP.
The reality is the Fed can have no significant impact on
the economy by any normal policy moves. Changing the interest
rates by purchase and repo trades to US Treasuries at 4%
would not impact the economy because of the new market
interest rates, but the reaction of interest payers will
impact the economy. Everyone assumes higher interest payments
will mean less paid to workers, because the way to cut the
burden of interest payments is to cut revenue so interest
becomes a higher share of revenue. In reality, what is cut is
buying goods with future wages and working hard to repay
borrowed labor costs. Keynes notes that the individual self
interest reaction is both collectively and individually
harmful.
The high level of debt from consumption in a growing
economy is extremely harmful, yet Fed policy has been
promoting job killing debt funded consumption by doing less
of what Scott Summer advocates it should do to create jobs.
Fair enough. I think we are in agreement that monetary policy
should be based on the state of the economy and not politics
even if we have a genuine disagreement about the state of the
economy. But at least you and I are having a principled
discussion. Something others here should emulate.
Heterodox economics refers to methodologies or schools of
economic thought that are considered outside of "mainstream
economics", often represented by expositors as contrasting
with or going beyond neoclassical economics. "Heterodox
economics" is an umbrella term used to cover various
approaches, schools, or traditions. These include socialist,
Marxian, institutional, evolutionary, Georgist, Austrian,
feminist, social, post-Keynesian (not to be confused with New
Keynesian), and ecological economics among others.
Mainstream economics may be called orthodox or
conventional economics by its critics. Alternatively,
mainstream economics deals with the
"rationality–individualism–equilibrium nexus" and heterodox
economics is more "radical" in dealing with the
"institutions–history–social structure nexus". Many
mainstream economists dismiss heterodox economics as "fringe"
and "irrelevant", with little or no influence on the vast
majority of academic economists in the English-speaking
world.
It seems
mainstream to argue that a high tax rate and costly
regulations kill jobs, and that cutting taxes and regulations
will create jobs because rewarding higher profits from
reducing labor costs far below prices, and eliminating all
the labor costs to comply with regulations will create jobs,
because lower labor costs mean more workers being paid higher
wages.
But can someone explain the mainstream economic theory of
reducing labor costs resulting in more workers getting paid
more??? Looks like voodoo to me.
I don't see it
as attacking economics as science tied to nature, as much as
attacking economists who pick one "natural law" and apply it
generally far outside the limits for which it applies,
ignoring all the other laws that constrain it.
For example demand price theory and elasticity is sound
natural law. It's like Boyles Law of gases. Boyles law
applies over a range of pressures and temperature for which
the gas remains a gas. It has limits, the point the "gas"
becomes liquid or solid.
The idea that lower prices will create jobs applies only
for a limited range of prices and quantities, but once
outside those bound, lower prices MUST KILL JOBS.
The Laffer curve is an elasticity curve that covers the
entire range of tax rates. A carbon tax works by moving up
the curve to the point zero tax revenue is generated. The
higher the tax, the cheaper it is to pay workers to build
substitutes that do not burn fossil fuels, and instead of
paying taxes, you pay the cheaper payroll of more workers.
Likewise, a high tax rate on economic aka monopoly
profits, and on rents, the cheaper paying workers to build
tax dodging depreciating capital becomes, which in the long
run increases the capital stock, the product quantity, and
thus prices are driven to cost eliminating economic profit
and economic rents.
The point of high tax rates, tax rates of 50% and up, is
not to raise revenue but to cause paying workers for
substitutes.
On the other hand, government is a product, the general
welfare, so, to increase the quantity of general welfare, tax
rates need to be high enough to pay workers. The cost of
general welfare is certainly much less than 50% of the
economy in the long run, so tax rates are at all points in
the lower part of the Laffer curve so lowering rates will
reduce the quantity of general welfare that can be produced.
And the general welfare is always from paying workers.
So, economists across the board are pretty universally
wrong about tax rates and about prices levels, and the impact
of raising and lowering them.
At the micro level, the theory is clear. At the micro
level, the principle of zero sum is held as a natural law
constraint.
Moving to macro does not eliminate any of the natural laws
of micro, but instead moves economics from the micro theory
of the two body problem, two bodies of mass rotating about
each other, to macro theory of the n-body problem of sun,
planets, solar systems, galaxies all rotating around each
other. At this level, many natural laws come into play, like
general relativity in its many forms including imputing mass
to energy, going far beyond Newtonian physics, yet not
discarding it.
Macro economists have either blindly and wishfully
forgotten or ignored fundamental micro laws, or intentionally
eliminated them from the macro proclamations to deceive.
When Bernie Sanders argues a carbon tax can pay for vast
welfare state benefits, is he intentionally lying, or has he
been deceived by self deceiving economists who wishfully seek
a free lunch economic system where money comes from nothing?
When Milton Friedman argued in 1970 lower tax rates would
generate the same tax revenue and create more jobs and
output, was he intentionally lying, or self deceiving
himself?
Milton Friedman in arguing against high tax rates made a
point of all the jobs and wage income that resulted from the
high tax rates, jobs and income he considered wasteful
spending promoted by the tax policy. He even noted that the
high wage income increased demand for goods and services,
consumption he considered wasteful.
So, as the father of the macro economic policy of tax
(rate) cuts, how can it be a policy to boost gdp and jobs to
cut taxes as Friedman argued?
Trump seems to latch onto simplified macro economic half
baked policy ideas an run with them to the max. The
economists who crafted the policy statements he has extracted
his proclamations from are horrified by what he is doing with
their policy proclamations. Proclamations that are half baked
and thus violate natural law.
Take the economists at Econlog from which Trump gets a lot
of his economics. They are horrified. Yet their economic
"theory" clearly does not work. Trade theory in particular.
The micro theory of trade exchanges labor for labor, ie, your
labor makes goods traded for goods I make with my labor. But
trade today swaps labor for capital, so jobs are moved from
one nation to another in exchange for reducing the wealth of
the other.
Saudi Arabia is the simplest example. It sells it's
natural capital and then imports labor goods at prices lower
than Saudi workers can hope to produce them, thus killing
jobs in Saudi Arabia. The crisis in Saudi Arabia is a lack of
opportunity for the Saudi people who are multiplying as if it
were still an undeveloped nation with high mortality rate.
Since Reagan, the US has become more like Saudi Arabia,
selling off capital to buy cheap goods from less developed
economies where labor is relatively cheaper and sending back
capital, killing jobs in the process and eliminating economic
opportunity to Trump voters.
Milton Friedman argued that this was a good policy because
we as a nation were better off from China effectively gifting
us cheap goods and that on the whole, the US is better off
from jobs lost in the US. He hinted at using the consumer
surplus of cheap imports to pay welfare to those who lost
jobs, but those advocating job killing trade imbalance also
condemn welfare payments, blaming those who lost jobs as
being at fault.
So, Trump is going back to micro economics and promising
to make sure trade is going to create jobs in the US. But he
also grabs onto and clings to the cheap price concept that
requires killing jobs. Trump is going to ensure energy is
cheap, which means he will never ban oil imports or put a $50
a barrel tariff on oil imports.
What policy could Trump do to create jobs quickly? A $50 a
barrel tariff on imported oil, say phase it in over a year,
$20 starting April 1, $30 July 1, $40 Oct 1, $50 Jan 1 2018.
This time, ExxonMobil will not have high profits from $4
gasoline and heating oil because they will be paying 25,000
more direct workers to drill baby frack, plus ten times as
many supporting jobs, as they build assets they can rapidly
depreciate or expense to wipe out taxable profits. At the
same time, incumbents drillers will return to high gear. If
Trump rebates a tariff on exported refined oil products, it
would delay NAFTA sanctions as oil products consumed in
Mexico and Canada will be cheaper but exports will not be
reduced much. On the global market, the results will be
devastating with oil prices crashing. Putin would likely
target Trump for going to war on the Russian people and
economy.
Bernie would likely attack Trump for his policy hiking the
price of heating oil to the working poor of Vermont. But you
can't pay more American workers without higher energy prices.
Vermont's working poor will end up with better pay if energy
efficiency investments are made in Vermont because neither
Chinese nor Saudi workers can eliminate the need for oil to
keep housing warm in Vermont.
And the $50 a barrel tariff on imported oil will generate
no revenue for government to spend by 2020 if oil product
exports get tariff rebates.
The financial crisis in the UK was the result of losses by
banks on overseas assets, originating from the collapse in
the US subprime market. It was not a result of excessive
borrowing by UK consumers, firms or our government. As the
Bank's Ben Broadbent points out, "Thanks to the international
exposure of its banks the UK has been, in some sense, a "net
importer" of the financial crisis." This overseas lending
caused a crisis because banks were far too highly levered,
and so could not absorb these losses and had to be bailed out
by the government.
This is why UK macroeconomists failed to pick up the
impending crisis. They did routinely monitor personal,
corporate and government borrowing, but not the amount of
bank leverage. Macroeconomists generally acknowledge that
they were at fault in ignoring the crucial role that
financial sector leverage can play in influencing the
macroeconomy. There has been a huge increase in the amount of
research on these finance-macro linkages since the crisis.
But supposing economists had ensured that they knew about
the increase in bank leverage and had collectively warned of
the dangers of excessive risk taking that this represented.
Would it have made any difference? There are good reasons for
thinking it would not.
The main evidence for this is what has happened after the
crisis. Admati and Hellweg have written persuasively that we
need a huge increase in bank capital requirements to bring
the 'too big to fail' problem to an end and avoid a future
banking crisis, and the work of David Miles in the UK has a
similar message. I have not come across an academic economist
who seriously dissents from this analysis, but it has no
impact on policy at all. The power of the banking lobby is
just too strong....
Oh you mean
the success of being able to raise asset prices without the
growth in wages, make education costly and unaffordable
without student loans, not chargeable under bankruptcy,
spruce up employment figures by not counting the people who
have stopped look for jobs because they cannot find one, make
people debt serfs, make savers miserable by keeping interest
rates at zero and making them take risks that they may not
want to take though it is picking pennies in front of a
steamroller, keeping wages stagnant for decades and thus
impoverishing people. The list of successes is endless and
you should be glad we are NOT talking about them. Because if
we do, the clan called economists might well be torched.
"... You can't get something from nothing but, believe it or not, the money is there, somewhere to make $10 jobs into $20. Bottom 45% of earners take 10% of overall income; down from 20% since 1980 (roughly -- worst be from 1973 but nobody seems to use that); top 1% take 20%; double the 10% from 1980. ..."
"... Top 1% share doubled -- of 50% larger pie! ..."
"... One of many remedies: majority run politics wont hesitate to transfer a lot of that lately added 10% from the 1% back to the 54% who now take 70% -- who can transfer it on down to the 45% by paying higher retail prices -- with Eisenhower level income tax. In any case per capita income grows more than 10% over one decade to cover 55%-to-45% income shifting. ..."
"... Not to mention other ways -- multiple efficiencies -- to get multiple-10%'s back: squeezing out financialization; sniffing out things like for-profit edus (unions providing the personnel quantity necessary to keep up with society's many schemers; snuffing out $100,000 Hep C treatments that cost $150 to make (unions supplying the necessary volume of lobbying and political financing; less (mostly gone) poverty = mostly gone crime and its criminal justice expenses. ..."
Simple, adequate if not perfect -- but adequate -- answer -- in any rate the only answer by now
-- to losing manufacturing jobs to outsourcing or automation:
Doubling of per capita income since 1968 -- when fed min wage was $11 -- means the labor market
will support; means the ultimate consumer will pony up for a high enough price: to allow most
jobs (e.g., stacking shelves at WalMart) to pay $20 (jobs that now pay $10).
THE MONEY IS THERE SOMEWHERE
You can't get something from nothing but, believe it or not, the money is there, somewhere to
make $10 jobs into $20. Bottom 45% of earners take 10% of overall income; down from 20% since
1980 (roughly -- worst be from 1973 but nobody seems to use that); top 1% take 20%; double the
10% from 1980.
Top 1% share doubled -- of 50% larger pie!
One of many remedies: majority run politics wont hesitate to transfer a lot of that lately
added 10% from the 1% back to the 54% who now take 70% -- who can transfer it on down to the 45%
by paying higher retail prices -- with Eisenhower level income tax. In any case per capita income
grows more than 10% over one decade to cover 55%-to-45% income shifting.
Not to mention other ways -- multiple efficiencies -- to get multiple-10%'s back:
squeezing out financialization;
sniffing out things like for-profit edus (unions providing the personnel quantity necessary to
keep up with society's many schemers;
snuffing out $100,000 Hep C treatments that cost $150 to make (unions supplying the necessary
volume of lobbying and political financing;
less (mostly gone) poverty = mostly gone crime and its criminal justice expenses.
IOW, labor unions = a normal country.
ALSO HEALTH CARE IS GROWING BY LEAPS AND BOUNDS AND CAN TAKE UP MANUFACTURING'S SLACK.
Males need
to be less afraid of formerly "feminine" rolls like nurse. Was in urgent-care walk in last week
-- nurses or something like: one, big guy with dagger into skull tattoo on one forearm, "RESPECT"
on other. Other looked very male too. Health care conveniently for labor market spread evenly
everywhere -- hopefully to be covered by gov (next Dem Congress).
HERE'S HOW TO UNION-UP
America should feel perfectly free to rebuild labor union density one state at a time -- making
union busting a felony. Republicans will have no place to hide.
Suppose the 1935 Congress passed the NLRA(a) intending to leave any criminal sanctions for
obstructing union organizing to the states. Might have been because NLRB(b) conducted union elections
take place local by local (not nationwide) and Congress could have opined states would deal more
efficiently with home conditions -- or whatever. What extra words might Congress have needed to
add to today's actual bill? Actually, today's identical NLRA wording would have sufficed perfectly.
Suppose, again, that under the RLA (Railroad Labor Act -- covers railroads and airlines, FedEx)
-- wherein elections are conducted nationally -- that Congress desired to forbid states criminalizing
the firing of organizers -- how could Congress have worded such a preemption (assuming it was
constitutionally valid)? Shouldn't matter to us. Congress did not!
Note well: it is not mostly the organizer's job loss to be punished; it is much more the interference
with all employees' bargaining power -- working them for less.
Ann; you know often I do 4,000-5,000 spam mails --
mostly journalists, state legislators, unions -- if I get one or two click-backs of something
of my own that's good.
This one I only sent out maybe 2,000 -- concentrated mostly on Illinois,
Wisconsin and Minnesota -- and this week got an unheard of 80 click-backs on this link (hopefully
some looked at the blog too).
So, maybe something's stirring. So try to relax -- all in fun. :-)
Planning to blanket every state -- may take couple of months.
"... Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khalid Al-Falih says it may not be necessary to extend the deal reached by the group and some non-member nations to cut oil supply by around 1.8 million barrels a day beyond its initial six months, and that doing so could create a shortage. That seems a very quick and painless solution to an oversupply problem that has bedeviled the oil market for the past two years, brought several producers to the brink of collapse and tipped others over it. ..."
"... Saudi oil usage has dropped as natural gas replaces around a third of what it uses for power generation ..."
"... But that changed last year. The start-up of the Wasit gas plant allowed the kingdom to slash the use of crude in power generation by as much as a third -- freeing that oil up for export. In addition, the kingdom cut fuel subsidies, pushing down oil consumption by 2 percent year-on-year in the first eleven months of 2016. That's the first dip since at least 2003, when JODI records begin. ..."
"... In other words oil producers can not afford more then a decade or so with the current oil prices. That means the price in 2026 should be closer to $100 then to $50 per barrel. ..."
"... Also existing wells decline at the rate that can vary from 2% to 16% per year (shale oil) unless you use infill drilling and other measures to stem the decline. The latter requires money or access to junk bond market (business model for the USA shale oil producers). ..."
"OPEC's big drama may well be just a one-act light opera.
Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khalid Al-Falih says it
may not be necessary to extend the deal reached by the group
and some non-member nations to cut oil supply by around 1.8
million barrels a day beyond its initial six months, and that
doing so could create a shortage. That seems a very quick and
painless solution to an oversupply problem that has bedeviled
the oil market for the past two years, brought several
producers to the brink of collapse and tipped others over it.
It took a lot for the Saudis to agree to this deal in
November, but the rationale seemed at least to make sense.
Brimming supply had created financial difficulties for the
kingdom, and also complicated the forthcoming IPO of a small
part of Saudi Aramco.
Saudi Crude Exports
Crude oil exports hit a 13-year high in November, as OPEC
met to agree output cuts
Graphic
The latest numbers from the Joint Organisations Data
Initiative offer a different, and compelling, narrative. It
turns out that, as the deal was being thrashed out, Saudi
Arabia was enjoying a 35-year high in total oil exports.
One big factor was a huge drop in the amount of oil the
country needs to burn to generate electricity. The punishing
Saudi summers boost demand for electricity -- mostly to run
air-conditioners -- to a level that previously required vast
amounts of oil-fired generating capacity to be brought into
use. The direct burning of crude oil in power stations would
roughly double to about 900,000 barrels a day at the height
of the season.
Burning Crude
Saudi oil usage has dropped as natural gas replaces
around a third of what it uses for power generation
Graphic
But that changed last year. The start-up of the Wasit
gas plant allowed the kingdom to slash the use of crude in
power generation by as much as a third -- freeing that oil up
for export. In addition, the kingdom cut fuel subsidies,
pushing down oil consumption by 2 percent year-on-year in the
first eleven months of 2016. That's the first dip since at
least 2003, when JODI records begin.
This left Saudi Arabia with an embarrassment of riches as
the OPEC negotiations were underway last year. Unless it cut
output, it would start flooding the market during the first
half of 2017. The stars were aligned for it to solve the
problem by persuading others to share the burden in a way
that has not been seen since the financial crisis of 2008,
while at the same time restoring its credentials as a team
player within OPEC.
Demand Contraction
We really don't know, and never will, what the true Saudi
motivation for agreeing to production cuts was or is. But
this new read on the Saudis' motivations for agreeing to the
deal has the benefit of explaining why Al-Falih is looking
for a six-month time line and why the kingdom has been
prepared to make such a deep cut in its production. Its
surplus will have disappeared by that time, at which point it
can start to boost production again in order to get exports
back to the level it wants to maintain.
Such a move could easily be the catalyst for the whole
deal to fall apart by June. And there's no way the global
backlog of inventory will be dealt with at that time. This
seems a situation designed to antagonize the rest of the
group and create a raft of bad feeling.
If maintaining exports is more important to Saudi Arabia
than balancing the market, then so is a willingness to back
out on a hard-won deal that took the kingdom and its partners
a lot of political capital to achieve."
'This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of
Bloomberg LP and its owners'
*Julian Lee is an oil strategist for Bloomberg First Word.
Previously he worked as a senior analyst at the Centre for
Global Energy Studies
"*Julian Lee is an oil strategist for Bloomberg First Word.
Previously he worked as a senior analyst at the Centre for
Global Energy Studies"
That tells you a lot. Bloomberg
playing oil short for the last two and half years and
probably will continue to do so.
For Us shale oil "break even" price is over $55. For oil
sands this "price red line" is probably higher -- $65 per
barrel or more.
One cent lower gas prices for a year mean one billion
saved for the USA economy. So this "oil stimulus" for the
last two and half years of Obama presidency was simply
enormous. And in this sense playing Iran card was probably
the most brilliant move Obama ever made. That's probably why
economy looks slightly better right now and we are not in the
recession. So all Yellen noises about 2017 rate hikes are
what they are -- politically inspired noise.
In 2017 "oil stimulus" will decline. EIA average for WTI
are $43.33 for 2016 and $52.50 for 2017 (forecast), the rise
of around 20%. That's around 200 billion taken from the US
economy. Oil closed Friday 53.18, so EIA forecast for 2017
might be too conservative.
The key problem with "low oil price forever" hypothesis
this is that there are very few places where you can get oil
out of the ground for less then $55 per barrel and get a
reasonable profit (or balance state budget for oil states).
And BTW Saudis needs around $75-80 per barrel to balance
the budget. Probably more (close to $100 per barrel) with
Yemen war. Their own oil consumption also continue to grow.
They can sell oil below this price point only as long as
they have foreign currency reserves and can accumulate debt.
If they tighten the belts they can probably survive on
$55-$65 per barrel. But no more military adventures and huge
purchases of arms from the USA. Parasitic Saudi nobility
appetites also need to be curbed.
And KSA case is pretty much what we can expect in the
future: all oil producers will eventually need $75-$80 per
barrel to maintain the current level of production, to say
nothing to expand it.
And the world consumption still grow annually by 1-1.5
Mb/d (million barrels per day) and this pace will probably
continue for the next decade.
In other words oil producers can not afford more then a
decade or so with the current oil prices. That means the
price in 2026 should be closer to $100 then to $50 per
barrel.
Also existing wells decline at the rate that can vary from
2% to 16% per year (shale oil) unless you use infill drilling
and other measures to stem the decline. The latter requires
money or access to junk bond market (business model for the
USA shale oil producers).
Exploration requires money too and all of this stopped in
2015 with the negative effects probably three-four years down
the road.
It is also not unconceivable that we are close to so
called "Seneca Cliff" when all those stop gap measures will
stop working simultaneously and we enter the phase of a steep
decline.
It's urgent Democrats stop squabbling and recognize seven
basic truths:
1. The Party is on life support. Democrats are in the
minority in both the House and Senate, with no end in sight.
Since the start of the Obama Administration they've lost
1,034 state and federal seats. They hold only governorships,
and face 32 state legislatures fully under GOP control. No
one speaks for the party as a whole. The Party's top leaders
are aging, and the back bench is thin.
The future is bleak unless the Party radically reforms
itself. If Republicans do well in the 2018 midterms, they'll
control Congress and the Supreme Court for years. If they
continue to hold most statehouses, they could entrench
themselves for a generation.
2. We are now in a populist era. The strongest and most
powerful force in American politics is a rejection of the
status quo, a repudiation of politics as usual, and a deep
and profound distrust of elites, including the current power
structure of America.
That force propelled Donald Trump into the White House. He
represents the authoritarian side of populism. Bernie
Sanders's primary campaign represented the progressive side.
The question hovering over America's future is which form
of populism will ultimately prevail. At some point,
hopefully, Trump voters will discover they've been
hoodwinked. Even in its purist form, authoritarian populism
doesn't work because it destroys democracy. Democrats must
offer the alternative.
3. The economy is not working for most Americans. The
economic data show lower unemployment and higher wages than
eight years ago, but the typical family is still poorer today
than it was in 2000, adjusted for inflation; median weekly
earning are no higher than in 2000; a large number of
working-age people-mostly men-have dropped out of the labor
force altogether; and job insecurity is endemic.
Inequality is wider and its consequences more savage in
America than in any other advanced nation.
4. The Party's moneyed establishment-big donors, major
lobbyists, retired members of Congress who have become
bundlers and lobbyists-are part of the problem. Even though
many consider themselves "liberal" and don't recoil from an
active government, their preferred remedies spare
corporations and the wealthiest from making any sacrifices.
The moneyed interests in the Party allowed the
deregulation of Wall Street and then encouraged the bailout
of the Street. They're barely concerned about the growth of
tax havens, inside trading, increasing market power in major
industries (pharmaceuticals, telecom, airlines, private
health insurers, food processors, finance, even high tech),
and widening inequality.
Meanwhile, they've allowed labor unions to shrink to near
irrelevance. Unionized workers used to be the ground troops
of the Democratic Party. In the 1950s, more than a third of
all private-sector workers were unionized; today, fewer than
7 percent are.
5. It's not enough for Democrats to be "against Trump,"
and defend the status quo. Democrats have to fight like hell
against regressive policies Trump wants to put in place, but
Democrats also need to fight for a bold vision of what the
nation must achieve-like expanding Social Security, and
financing the expansion by raising the cap on income subject
to Social Security taxes; Medicare for all; and world-class
free public education for all.
And Democrats must diligently seek to establish
countervailing power-stronger trade unions, community banks,
more incentives for employee ownership and small businesses,
and electoral reforms that get big money out of politics and
expand the right to vote.
6. The life of the Party-its enthusiasm, passion, youth,
principles, and ideals-was elicited by Bernie Sanders's
campaign. This isn't to denigrate what Hillary Clinton
accomplished-she did, after all, win the popular vote in the
presidential election by almost 3 million people. It's only
to recognize what all of us witnessed: the huge outpouring of
excitement that Bernie's campaign inspired, especially from
the young. This is the future of the Democratic Party.
7. The Party must change from being a giant fundraising
machine to a movement.It needs to unite the poor, working
class, and middle class, black and white-who haven't had a
raise in 30 years, and who feel angry, powerless, and
disenfranchised.
Cruising all my lefty bookmarked sites, this is the only one
(Reich's bog) that comes even close to saying the Democratic
Party is risking permanent irrelevance unless sufficient
grass roots anger topples the leadership wholesale and
rebuilds from the bottom.
That's what happened to the Republican party. Trump toppled
the establishment by tapping into people's anger about the
"carnage." Now we'll see what he actually does. I don't think
think even he knows what he'll do.
Meanwhile establishment
Democrats deny that there is any carnage.
Brexit and Trump only happened b/c of a weird uptick in
racism and sexism. B/c of social media.
Bernie Sanders just said on CBS that he is ready to work with Trump on
1) lowering drug prices by purchasing drugs from abroad and Medicare negotiate prices
2) infrastructure projects
3) better trade deals
Lets see if entrenched interests in the GOP and Democrat party let them work together. My guess
is NOT.
What that would accomplish is lay bare the corruption that is part of both parties.
Let's see if Trump actually wants to do any of those things Sanders wants. In other words will
he "reach across the aisle."
Let's see if Republicans in Congress cooperate.
I think it's unlikely although not impossible (as Krugman etc do)
Trump thinks of himself as a reality TV star. He likes the drama. But he seems to have no interest
in the details of policy. He found the border tax his advisers were floating as too complicated.
"... Alarmed by the spread of anti-imperialist ideas, Lodge invited his closest friend, Governor Theodore Roosevelt of New York, to join him in Boston to launch a counterattack. On Oct. 31, 1899, both spoke to the Republican Club of Massachusetts at the cavernous Music Hall on Winter Street. "We have got to put down the insurrection!" Roosevelt cried. "If we are men, we can't do otherwise!" Lodge portrayed anti-imperialists as not only defeatist, but complicit in the killing of American soldiers. ..."
"... Tides ran in favor of the expansionist idea. Prominent anti-imperialists lost elections. War in the Philippines slowly reached its bloody end. Americans began focusing on other problems. The United States had leaped from continental empire to overseas empire. ..."
"... That war - which is actually a war against war - has never ended. The debate over American intervention abroad, which began at Faneuil Hall in 1898, is still raging. It will shape the new administration in Washington and, through it, the world. ..."
Where better to launch a patriotic uprising than Faneuil Hall in Boston? It is a lodestone
of American liberty, a cathedral for freedom fighters. That is why a handful of eminent Bostonians
chose it as the place to begin a new rebellion on the sunny afternoon of June 15, 1898.
Like all Americans, they had been dizzied by the astonishing events of recent weeks. Their
country had suddenly burst beyond its natural borders. American troops had landed in Cuba. American
warships had bombarded Puerto Rico. An American expeditionary force was steaming toward the distant
Philippine Islands. Hawaii seemed about to fall to American power. President William McKinley
had called for 200,000 volunteers to fight in foreign wars. Fervor for the new idea of overseas
expansion gripped the United States.
This prospect thrilled some Americans. It horrified others. Their debate gripped the nation.
The country's best-known political and intellectual leaders took sides. In the history of US foreign
policy, this is truly the mother of all debates.
When we argue over whether we should depose a government in Iraq or Syria or Libya, whether
we should wage war in Afghanistan, whether we should encourage the bombing of Yemen, or whether
we should seek to bend Russia to our will, we are arguing the same question that was at the center
of this original debate. Every argument about foreign intervention that we make today - on both
sides - was first made in the period around 1898. Today's debates are amazingly precise repetitions
of that first one. The central question is the same: Should the United States project power into
faraway lands? Yes, to guarantee our prosperity, save innocent lives, liberate the oppressed,
and confront danger before it reaches our shores! No, intervention brings suffering and creates
enemies!
Boston was the epicenter of that original debate. Bostonians played such a large role in the
national debate that one California newspaper called anti-imperialists "the kicking Bostonese."
Several hundred of them turned out for the Faneuil Hall meeting. One speaker, the Rev. Charles
Ames, a theologian and Unitarian pastor, warned that the moment the United States seized a foreign
land, it would "sacrifice the principles on which the Republic was founded."
The policy of imperialism threatens to change the temper of our people, and to put us into
a permanent attitude of arrogance, testiness, and defiance towards other nations. ... Once we
enter the field of international conflict as a great military and naval power, we shall be one
more bully among bullies. We shall only add one more to the list of oppressors of mankind.
At the end of that afternoon, one of the meeting's organizers came to the podium and read a
resolution. "Resolved, that the mission of the United States is to help the world by an example
of successful self-government, and that to abandon the principles and the policy under which we
have prospered, and embrace the doctrine and practices now called imperial, is to enter the path
which, with other great republics, has ended in the downfall of free institutions," it declared.
"Resolved, that our first duty is to cure the evils in our own country." The resolution was adopted
by acclamation.
At the very moment these words were shaking Faneuil Hall, debate on the same question - overseas
expansion - was reaching a climax in Congress. It is a marvelous coincidence: The first anti-imperialist
rally in American history was held on the same day that Congress voted, also for the first time,
on whether the United States should take an overseas colony. The colony in question was Hawaii,
but all understood that the real question was immensely greater. It was nothing less than the
future of the Republic: whether or not the United States should become a global military power
and seek to shape the fate of faraway lands.
On that day, as expected, the House of Representatives voted to annex Hawaii. Yet the great debate
had only begun. Working from offices in Boston, anti-imperialists spent the summer and fall of
1898 writing letters to potential sympathizers across the country.
Their work came to fruition on Nov. 18, when an eager crowd packed a law office on Milk Street
to witness the founding of the Anti-Imperialist League. George Boutwell, who had been a passionate
abolitionist as well as a congressman, US senator, and governor of Massachusetts, was chosen by
acclimation as the league's first president. In his mind, every abolitionist was a natural anti-imperialist,
since anyone who opposed keeping human beings as slaves must also oppose ruling other peoples
against their will.
At the end of 1898, American negotiators forced the defeated Spanish to sign the Treaty of
Paris, in which they surrendered Cuba, Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Philippines. On Jan. 4, 1899,
President McKinley submitted the treaty for Senate ratification. That set off a monthlong debate
over what one senator called "the greatest question that has ever been presented to the American
people." The dominant figure on each side was a brilliantly articulate Republican senator from
Massachusetts.
George Frisbie Hoar of Worcester led the anti-imperialist charge. The United States, he insisted,
must not "rush madly upon this new career," lest it become "a cheap-jack country raking after
the cart for the leavings of European tyranny." He ended his speech in a crescendo: "The poor
Malay, the poor African, the downtrodden workman of Europe will exclaim, as he reads this new
doctrine: 'Good God! Is there not one place left on earth where, in right of my manhood, I can
stand up and be a man?' "
Hoar's sharpest opponent was Henry Cabot Lodge of Beacon Hill and Nahant. Lodge told the Senate
that since many foreign peoples were unequipped to govern themselves wisely, they should submit
to American guidance and trust "the American people, who have never failed in any great duty or
feared to face any responsibility, to deal with them in that spirit of justice, humanity, and
liberty which has made us all that we are today or can ever hope to be."
From their bustling office on Kilby Street, leaders of the Anti-Imperialist League fed information
to friendly senators and heavily lobbied the handful who remained undecided. The league also published
a stream of pamphlets, called Liberty Tracts, aimed at bringing its arguments to a larger audience.
Often their titles were questions. "Which shall it be, nation or empire?" asked one. Another:
"Is it right for this country to kill the natives of a foreign land because they wish to govern
themselves?"
On Feb. 6, 1899, despite these intense efforts, senators ratified the Treaty of Paris - by
just one vote more than the required two-thirds majority. Armed rebellion broke out immediately
in the Philippines. Tens of thousands of American troops were sent to suppress it. President McKinley
faced a difficult task: explain to a divided nation why taking foreign lands was no betrayal of
the American idea. He decided to deliver a speech in Boston, home of the Anti-Imperialist League
and thus the heart of enemy territory. To assure himself a friendly audience, however, he chose
as his platform the Home Market Club, one of the country's most potent agglomerations of corporate
power.
A crowd led by Mayor Josiah Quincy cheered as McKinley emerged from South Station around midday
on Feb. 15, 1899. The next night, nearly two thousand guests packed Mechanics Hall for the largest
banquet ever staged in the United States. In his speech, McKinley asserted that the essential
goodness of the American people is the supreme and sole necessary justification of whatever the
United States chooses to do in the world. This goodness, he acknowledged, might not be clear to
the "misguided Filipino," but soon the islands would prosper under the rule "not of their American
masters, but of their American emancipators."
"Did we need their consent to perform a great act for humanity?" he asked. "We had it in every
aspiration of their minds, in every hope of their hearts."
These words disgusted the philosopher William James. In an anguished letter to Boston newspapers,
he called McKinley's speech a "shamefully evasive" attempt to obscure the central truth of the
age: "We are cold-bloodedly, wantonly, and abominably destroying the soul of a people who never
did us an atom of harm in their lives. It is bald, brutal piracy."
Alarmed by the spread of anti-imperialist ideas, Lodge invited his closest friend, Governor
Theodore Roosevelt of New York, to join him in Boston to launch a counterattack. On Oct. 31, 1899,
both spoke to the Republican Club of Massachusetts at the cavernous Music Hall on Winter Street.
"We have got to put down the insurrection!" Roosevelt cried. "If we are men, we can't do otherwise!"
Lodge portrayed anti-imperialists as not only defeatist, but complicit in the killing of American
soldiers.
"I vote with the army that wears the uniform and carries the flag of my country," he said.
"When the enemy has yielded and the war is over, we can discuss other matters!"
Tides ran in favor of the expansionist idea. Prominent anti-imperialists lost elections.
War in the Philippines slowly reached its bloody end. Americans began focusing on other problems.
The United States had leaped from continental empire to overseas empire.
"Well, we are defeated for the time," admitted the Cambridge anti-imperialist Charles Eliot
Norton. "But the war is not ended, and we are enlisted for the war."
That war - which is actually a war against war - has never ended. The debate over American
intervention abroad, which began at Faneuil Hall in 1898, is still raging. It will shape the new
administration in Washington and, through it, the world.
"... Jack Ma said the poor plight of American economy was due to the costly wars waged by Washington and has nothing to do with trade ties with Beijing. The US adopted a strategy to control intellectual property rights and select brands three decades ago, leaving lower-level works to the rest of the world.... Microsoft and IBM have created hundreds of millions in profits through globalisation. ..."
Jack Ma said the poor plight of American economy was due to the costly wars waged by Washington
and has nothing to do with trade ties with Beijing. The US adopted a strategy to control intellectual
property rights and select brands three decades ago, leaving lower-level works to the rest of
the world.... Microsoft and IBM have created hundreds of millions in profits through globalisation.
This large sum could have been invested in infrastructure and employment, but was instead put
towards 13 wars, he said. The US simply failed to allot the funds reasonably." , Ma said his meeting
with Trump was much more productive than expected the discussions mainly focused on .... American
enterprises selling in Asia through Alibaba's platform, which will provide about one million jobs
for Americans in various ways.
US Budgetary Costs of Wars through 2016: $4.79 Trillion and Counting
Summary of Costs of the US Wars in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan and Homeland Security
By Neta C. Crawford
Summary
Wars cost money before, during and after they occur - as governments prepare for, wage, and
recover from them by replacing equipment, caring for the wounded and repairing the infrastructure
destroyed in the fighting. Although it is rare to have a precise accounting of the costs of war
- especially of long wars - one can get a sense of the rough scale of the costs by surveying the
major categories of spending.
As of August 2016, the US has already appropriated, spent, or taken on obligations to spend
more than $3.6 trillion in current dollars on the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Syria
and on Homeland Security (2001 through fiscal year 2016). To this total should be added the approximately
$65 billion in dedicated war spending the Department of Defense and State Department have requested
for the next fiscal year, 2017, along with an additional nearly $32 billion requested for the
Department of Homeland Security in 2017, and estimated spending on veterans in future years. When
those are included, the total US budgetary cost of the wars reaches $4.79 trillion....
"... "But after all it is the leaders of a country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people along, whether it is a democracy or fascist dictorship, or a parliament or a communist dictatorship. Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peace makers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country." ..."
"... Moscow-Ankara-Washington axis........ How about a Beijing-Moscow-Berlin axis, what have the Turks got to offer? ..."
"... Clinton was to solve global warming with nuclear winter. Sheesh! read Obama's neocon anthem aka the speech he gave in Stockholm where he conned the Nobel committee. ..."
"... Putin's 'interventions' are minimalist and defensive, the Clinton neocons would push NATO up to Smolensk with feckless disregard for any entity in the way of US empire. ..."
"... Neoliberal is starting wars because the empire sees "unjust peace" as excuse to engage with shock and awe despite the dbody count. ..."
"... Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity has questions the whole "Putin did it" narrative, demanding evidence: "we strongly suspect that the evidence your intelligence chiefs have of a joint Russian-hacking-WikiLeaks-publishing operation is no better than the "intelligence" evidence in 2002-2003 – expressed then with comparable flat-fact "certitude" – of the existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq." ..."
The rest of spring time for
jihadis are known bollux: Libya, Egypt*, Syria, Iraq,
Afghanistan...... Lebanon outside spring time for jihadis it
is under Shiite wraps not so bollux.
*CIA and generals jailed the jihadis to keep Camp David
bribes coming.
I am terribly worried that a move of the US embassy to
Jerusalem is part if a set of provocations leading to US
military interventions to eliminate the threats as this group
defines them to be (radical islamists). This would
immediately make the US and Russian oil industries more
valuable as the middle east becomes enflamed.
A new axis
arises: Russia, the new ottoman and the US.
I just cant help thinking that this is the plan, you will
be measured on your patriotism and allegiances here.
Dismaying.
But it does go hand in hand with this "America First"
schtick.
"But after all it is the leaders of a country who
determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag
the people along, whether it is a democracy or fascist
dictorship, or a parliament or a communist dictatorship.
Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the
bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is
tell them they are being attacked, and denounce the peace
makers for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to
danger. It works the same in any country."
"I am terribly worried that a move of the US embassy to
Jerusalem is part if a set of provocations leading to US
military interventions to eliminate..."
You could be right,
but most of Trump's campaign talk was isolationist, if
contradictory. The Iraq adventurism was a disaster, etc.
He doesn't like diplomacy, like the Iran deal, so there
could be more brinkmanship which is dangerous. But a war
would be very unpopular. Again he may not care since war
could be used as a distraction.
Authoritarian allies like the Arab dictatorships are happy
in that a Trump administration won't criticize them about
human rights violations or freedom of the press. Russia and
China will be happy about that as well.
Trump is basically a real-estate developer/tax fraud etc.
I don't see war as a foregone conclusion.
He used the word 'to protect' in his inaugural. That is
definitely not isolationism especially after declaring that
he will eliminate radical Islam from the earth (close to a
direct quote, I'm pretty sure).
And isn't he the one who
said during the campaign that we ought to just sieze the
oilfields?
So just provoke a few things, a few will do, then announce
the alliance wuth russia to settle this in the region, once
and for all, so we are protected.
Who indeed will step up and say no, they will not do this
type of thing?
Clinton was to solve global warming with nuclear winter.
Sheesh! read Obama's neocon anthem aka the speech he gave in
Stockholm where he conned the Nobel committee.
Putin's 'interventions' are minimalist and defensive, the
Clinton neocons would push NATO up to Smolensk with feckless
disregard for any entity in the way of US empire.
Neoliberal is starting wars because the empire sees
"unjust peace" as excuse to engage with shock and awe despite
the dbody count.
Clinton would be mobilizing to crush Russia using the
exploded the image of a few suffering Balts to tilt with
nuclear winter.
Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity has questions
the whole "Putin did it" narrative, demanding evidence: "we
strongly suspect that the evidence your intelligence chiefs
have of a joint Russian-hacking-WikiLeaks-publishing
operation is no better than the "intelligence" evidence in
2002-2003 – expressed then with comparable flat-fact
"certitude" – of the existence of weapons of mass destruction
in Iraq."
http://www.truthdig.com/report/page2/another_demand_for_russian_hacking_20170119
But this JohnH-come-lately drinks whatever Kool-Aid the
establishment gives him...
"Does the Russian government hack, as many other governments
do? Of course. Did it hack the emails of the Democratic
National Committee? Almost certainly, though it was likely
not alone in doing so. In the Internet age, hacking is the
bread and butter of intelligence agencies. If Russian
intelligence did not do so, this would constitute gross
misfeasance, especially since the DNC was such easy pickings
and the possibility of gaining important insights into the
U.S. government was so high. But that is not the question.
It was WikiLeaks that published the very damaging
information, for example, on the DNC's dirty tricks that
marginalized Sen. Bernie Sanders and ensured that Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton would win the Democratic
nomination. What remains to be demonstrated is that it was
"the Russians" who gave those emails to WikiLeaks. And that
is what the U.S. intelligence community doesn't know."
https://consortiumnews.com/2017/01/20/obama-admits-gap-in-russian-hack-case/
Democrats want to blame Russia for their ineptitude and their
lousy candidate.
Democrats want to blame Russia for exposing the DNC's
rigging of the primaries...by blaming Russia for rigging the
general elections [abject hypocrisy.]
Neither Democrats nor the intelligence services know who
gave the documents to WikiLeaks or, if they do, they don't
want you to know who it was.
reject all war. We are all extremely fortunate that Hillary
Clinton will not be taking office this weekend. Had Hillary
been elected we would be facing a crisis over Syria. Hillary
wants to overthrow the
"
Her victims are our cousins. Each of us emanates from the
same living cell. Within Minkowski-time-space we remain
connected as one animal. No!
We cannot open up our American hospitality to suspected
terrorists. What we can do is open up our homeland to
foreigners who are moving over to make space for her victims.
Ceu
When South Africa takes in Syrians, we can take in an
equal number of South Africans or other foreigners who are
demonstrating their love for our cousins, our cousins now
victimized by our own Mama-War-Bucks. Tell me something!
Was the HRC-email-server moved to her private home so that
SWH, Slick Willie himself could control the World? Hey!
"... The strongest advocates for bringing offshore manufacturing back to the United States acknowledge automation's effect on the workforce but say it doesn't negate the need for more domestic factories. Harry Mosser, founder of the Reshoring Institute, which encourages companies to bring manufacturing operations back to the United States, said that even a highly automated factory is better for workers than no factory at all. ..."
"... These days it is more about planned/welcomed obsolescence - the product basically works, but some critical parts may be low grade, making it break after a while so you have to buy something new. This also affects "brands that used to be good". ..."
"... The internet also has played a role - online stores could underbid brick and mortar, then the latter had to cheapen and cut their offerings, driving more customers to the internet, etc. ..."
SOUTHBRIDGE - A mainstay of Massachusetts manufacturing since
the late 1800s, the Hyde Group tool company made a big leap
overseas in 2010, when it outsourced production of its mass
market putty knives and wallpaper blades to China.
"At
heart, we're manufacturers. It was the hardest thing for us
to do, us in a fourth-generation family," said Bob Clemence,
vice president of sales at Hyde Group, and great-grandson of
the man who bought the company in the 1890s. "In order for us
to stay in business and still employ people, we had to move
our low-end business off-shore. It really was like a stab in
the heart."
But the cost advantage of China has been steadily shrinking;
it's now 40 percent cheaper to make the tools there than in
Southbridge. And if that continues to fall, then Hyde might
be able to help President Donald Trump fulfill a central
campaign promise: bringing manufacturing back to the United
States.
"Forty percent [savings] is a huge number to overcome,"
Clemence said. "We've determined that if it's 20 percent or
less, we're going to do it domestically."
As Trump cajoles American companies into returning
production to US soil, experiences like Hyde's illustrate the
complex, multifaceted decisions manufacturers face as they
choose where to build their products.
The president has talked of using lower taxes, fewer
regulations, and higher tariffs to bring about a renaissance
of American manufacturing. But for factory owners, it's not
simply about cheaper labor. The costs of energy and raw
materials, the emergence of global competitors, and the
location and demands of suppliers and customers all weigh on
these decisions, a myriad of cross currents that will make it
difficult to fix the factory economy with just a few bold
prescriptions.
"It's going to be not an easy job," said Enrico Moretti,
professor of economics at the University of California,
Berkeley, who predicted that even if factories stay in the
United States, production will be increasingly automated.
"I'm not sure there is one explicit policy, a magic switch,
that executive power in Washington can switch to retain jobs
in the US."
In the eyes of factory owners, singling them out won't
necessarily solve the problem. Some say they were forced to
move production overseas by their customers. At Hyde, it was
the retail stores that carry its tools demanding lower
prices.
"It doesn't matter what they say about made in the USA,
it's all about price," Clemence said. "They've taken some
basic items and said there are commodity products and said,
'We only buy them by price.' "
In Norwood, the Manufacturing Resource Group opened a
second factory just across the US border in Mexico in 2011
because customers demanded cheaper versions of its cable
assemblies, wire harnesses, and other electric components.
"The decision to open in Mexico wasn't ours," MRG
president Joe Prior said. "We were told that, 'You need to
have a low-cost option, or we're not going to be able to do
business with you.' "
The Norwood and Mexico factories nearly mirror one
another, each employing about 70 people, with mostly the same
equipment and capabilities. The Norwood factory still
accounts for most of its business, as MRG's local customers
are willing to pay more for quicker shipping and customer
service. But other customers simply want a cheaper product -
wages at the Mexico factory are a quarter the cost of
Norwood, while health care costs about 90 percent lower.
Prior said if Trump does impose a high tariff on imported
products, as he has threatened, then that cost would probably
be shouldered by customers of the Mexican factory.
"If there is a tax, it just has to be passed on to our
customers and they'd have to make a decision about whether it
makes sense for them anymore," he said.
Since many US companies sell to customers around the
world, a high tariff might bring some production back home -
but at a cost. For Eastern Acoustic Works, that might mean
losing international customers for its sound equipment.
The Whitinsville company is closing its factory here,
laying off 27 workers and outsourcing most production of
speaker systems and subwoofers to a contract manufacturer in
China. There were just too many competitors around the world
making similar equipment for Eastern Acoustic to justify
charging higher prices for its US-made products, general
manager TJ Smith said. Eastern Acoustic will instead
concentrate on new sales, marketing, and R&D initiatives,
creating white-collar jobs that will help it grow.
"Running a factory takes a lot of focus and energy," Smith
said. "We have to ask ourselves, what are we good at? What do
we want to call our competencies?"
Smith said Eastern Acoustic might be forced to bring
production back to the United States if the Trump tariff goes
into effect. However, that move might also prompt the company
to drop its international clients - Asia accounts for 30
percent of Eastern Acoustic's sales - because the US-made
products wouldn't be competitive in overseas markets.
"It would split my business up too much, so I couldn't
support" an overseas factory, Smith said. "For our scale, I
would lean toward [choosing] the domestic market at this
point because that's what I know and I'm closer to it."
But the higher tariffs might help Eastern Acoustic in
another way - by raising prices on products its European
competitors are selling to US customers. "So that might
increase my near-term opportunity domestically," Smith said.
Raw materials, such as steel or energy, is another area
Trump would have to address. Foreign steel, especially, is so
much cheaper that it is very difficult for manufacturers not
to use. But Trump's promise to promote more domestic oil and
gas production could be a major boon to factories.
For example, US companies are benefiting from very cheap
domestic natural gas; that's especially important in
processing industries that use a lot of chemicals in their
production. ...
President Donald Trump has spoken often about trade's
effect on US manufacturing employment but has said
comparatively little about another economic force that has
caused factories to shed jobs: high-tech machines and
automation.
At the Hyde Group's Southbridge factory, the amount of
work that 100 employees do now would have required 180
workers more than a decade ago, said Bob Clemence, the
company's vice president of sales.
While the number of blue-collar assembly-line jobs at US
factories has been dropping in huge numbers for decades,
Enrico Moretti, a professor at the University of California,
Berkeley, said the number of engineers working in factories
has about doubled. Future manufacturing jobs will probably
require engineering skills and training, Moretti said.
At Hyde, the typical factory worker might operate two or
three computerized machines at a time, and the work generally
requires an associate's degree or some college education,
Clemence said. That's a far cry from 20 years ago, when the
factory used to host night classes to help employees earn
high school degrees.
"We could still do the GED," Clemence said. "But I need
someone coming in the door that already has that degree
information. I don't need somebody that is only running a
fork truck."
In his presidential farewell address Jan. 10, President Obama
highlighted the effects of technology on the workforce,
noting "the relentless pace of automation that makes a lot of
good middle-class jobs obsolete." He also called for ensuring
higher-level education, as well as stronger labor unions, to
blunt the effect.
Even if future manufacturing employees are trained to
handle robots and high-tech machines, the math is simple
enough: Machines and robots require fewer workers on factory
floors. When the appliance maker Carrier, a division of
United Technologies Corp., agreed to keep in Indiana about
800 jobs it had planned to send to Mexico, it marked an early
public relations win for Trump. Within days, however, United
Technologies' chief executive said new investments in the
Indiana factory would probably result in automation and
eventual job losses.
The strongest advocates for bringing offshore manufacturing
back to the United States acknowledge automation's effect on
the workforce but say it doesn't negate the need for more
domestic factories. Harry Mosser, founder of the Reshoring
Institute, which encourages companies to bring manufacturing
operations back to the United States, said that even a highly
automated factory is better for workers than no factory at
all.
"If you bring back any manufacturing, you bring back some
employment," he said.
"At Hyde, the typical factory
worker might operate two or three computerized machines at a
time, and the work generally requires an associate's degree
or some college education,"
What are "computerized machines," Fred? and why only two
or three?
In my personal experience (as an IT guy)
observing electronic techs in computer
manufacturing (some decades ago) monitoring
several 'computerized' testing machines at once. (Made for
interesting challenges trying to measure productivity.)
Why
only two or three? When an 'event' happens,
prompt operator response is usually called for.
No, a cnc cell will typically have 4 or 5 cnc
machines. You just need labor to feed, stack and turn one off
if there is an issue. One will do. Injection molding can be 2 to 4 presses. This is why Labor
should have been paid more as they are replacing 3 and 4
people.
We already have this environment and plants are not
crawling with engineers. They are needs for programming only
and even then an operator might be able to do it.
"We could still do the GED," Clemence said. "But I need
someone coming in the door that already has that degree
information. I don't need somebody that is only running a
fork truck."
Translation: "We will not pay for upgrading
the skills of fresh hires as long as we still have older
workers in their 50's+ with existing skills *who are not
leaving*."
And that aspect is hinted at right above - 20+ years ago,
when today's 50+ were 20/30-ish, they paid for their
education, and those people are still in the accessible labor
pool.
But they *will* age out, and then they hand wringing and
wailing about skill shortages will intensify (and you better
believe companies will *then* arrange the skill upgrades).
> In the eyes of factory owners, singling them out won't
necessarily solve the problem. Some say they were forced to
move production overseas by their customers. At Hyde, it was
the retail stores that carry its tools demanding lower
prices. "It doesn't matter what they say about made in the
USA, it's all about price," Clemence said. "They've taken
some basic items and said there are commodity products and
said, 'We only buy them by price.' "
Yup. Consumers matter.
So long as we care more about getting the lowest price than
whether the workers who made the widget were getting a fair
deal the problem will persist.
It was said elsewhere in the article that "customers"
actually meant retail chains.
With many products, including
food, the origin of the product or its ingredients is not
properly disclosed. "Made for", "distributed by", "packed
in", "packaging printed in", are not actionable.
Then with advances in manufacturing and material sciences,
it has become harder to judge the expected quality and
workmanship of a product by its external appearance - most
look well finished and spiffy, parts are fitting well, etc.
About 20+ years that wasn't the case, and it was much
easier to tell that something is cheap junk (when looking
good on the outside it may still be junk inside, but at least
there was a way of identifying the lowest category).
These days it is more about planned/welcomed obsolescence
- the product basically works, but some critical parts may be
low grade, making it break after a while so you have to buy
something new. This also affects "brands that used to be
good".
Then one can only go by price, as that's a difference that
can still be discerned. And obviously there is a feedback
dynamic - stores observe what sells, and slowly remove
variety and "mid range" products.
The internet also has played a role - online stores could
underbid brick and mortar, then the latter had to cheapen and
cut their offerings, driving more customers to the internet,
etc.
Buffett Supports Trump on Cabinet Picks 'Overwhelmingly'
by Amanda L Gordon and Noah Buhayar
January 19, 2017, 8:19 PM EST January 20, 2017, 10:12 AM EST
Warren Buffett said he "overwhelmingly" supports President-elect Donald Trump's choices for cabinet
positions as the incoming commander-in-chief's selections face confirmation hearings in the U.S.
Senate.
"I feel that way no matter who is president," the billionaire Berkshire Hathaway Inc. chairman
and chief executive officer said Thursday in New York at the premiere of a documentary about his
life. "The CEO -- which I am -- should have the ability to pick people that help you run a place."
"If they fail, then it's your fault and you got to get somebody new," Buffett said. "Maybe you
change cabinet members or something."
Buffett, 86, backed Hillary Clinton in the presidential election, stumping for her in Omaha, Nebraska,
and headlining fundraisers. The billionaire frequently clashed with Trump and scolded him for not
releasing income-tax returns, as major party presidential candidates have done for roughly four decades.
Trump's cabinet picks include Treasury Secretary nominee Steven Mnuchin, a former Goldman Sachs
Group Inc. banker; former Exxon Mobil Corp. CEO Rex Tillerson as secretary of state; and retired
Marine Corps General James Mattis as Defense secretary.
Since the election, Buffett has struck a more conciliatory tone toward Trump and called for unity.
In an interview with CNN in November, he said that people could disagree with the president-elect,
but ultimately he "deserves everybody's respect."
Trump's Popularity
That message hasn't resonated. Trump's popularity is the worst for an incoming president in at
least four decades, with just 40 percent of Americans saying they have a favorable impression of
him, according to a Washington Post-ABC poll published Tuesday. Buffett said on Thursday that the
low approval ratings won't matter much.
"It's what you go out with that counts -- 20, 50 years later what people feel you've achieved,"
Buffett said.
The president-elect has continued his pugnacious style during the transition, picking fights on
Twitter with news outlets, automakers, defense contractors, intelligence agencies, Hollywood actress
Meryl Streep and civil rights hero-turned-U.S. Congressman John Lewis.
* It solved the problem of Democrats beginning to get a spine and going after the Felonious
Five (or at least the three with major conflict of interest).
* It bumped Bush's approval rating from 40% to 80%.
* It greatly lowered opposition to Bush's anti-civil-liberties policies, such as creating
"1st Amendment Zones".
* It made passage of the Patriot Act possible.
* People were able to smear opposition to the Bush team policies as treasonous.
* It rendered torture, aggressive war, and barbaric imprisonment without due process of
law respectable.
Bush Administration sabotaged investigation:
Remember Coleen Rowley who claimed that an FBI superior back in DC rewrote her request for
a warrant, to make it less likely that it would be approved? There was also the FBI agent in
Arizona who wanted to investigate certain pilot students, but was prohibited.
Remember the DeLenda Plan? Once
we knew the USS Cole was Al Qaeda, it should have been executed. As in the spring of 2001.
Alas, it was deferred to after 9/11. Most incompetent crew ever and the Twin Towers fell down
taking 3000 people with because of their utter incompetence.
On monetary economics - he is closer to Krugman than to Phil Gramm. But some people here hate
Friedman as much as they hate Krugman and they have decided "neoliberal" is the ultimate put down.
Even though they have no working definition of "neoliberal".
Obama might have done more to bend the tone of Washington than change actual policy, but his tenure
is a lesson in what a president can and can't do for working people.
When he took office at the zenith of the financial crisis, Obama's initial moves to stop the hemorrhaging
of jobs, including the federal stimulus package and Wall Street bailout, could have been opportunities
to reshape the relationship between the state and private sector and to tackle income inequality
in the long term. But thanks to bipartisan resistance in Congress, the big banks were never held
to account; the stimulus, though a significant social investment, petered out; and no other mass
jobs initiatives ever emerged after the "recovery" had sufficiently resuscitated the financial system.
But aspirations toward a New Deal–type stimulus faded fast. The Occupy Wall Street movement's
cry for economic justice picked up the momentum and changed the way people view the social dimensions
of inequality and the role of protest in civic life. Congress then proved useless in failing to push
through even modest investments in infrastructure, restoring funding for basic welfare programs,
or making
health-care reform truly equitable for working-class people instead of an insurance industry
racket.
The squelching of the
Employee Free Choice Act , which would have eased the unionization process, further constrained
efforts to build workplace democracy. Obama never lifted a finger for the act in the early days of
his presidency, when it was still politically possible.
Two parallel failures of Obama's approach toward globalization hurt labor materially and politically.
First, the collapse of immigration reform efforts, which only
further entrenched a permanent underclass of undocumented workers . Additionally, the perpetuation
of the warped neoliberal trade policy that has devastated working-class households who previously
enjoyed a modicum of upward mobility.
Trade deals like the
Trans Pacific Partnership revealed Obama's myopic approach to addressing deep destabilization
across the workforce - the evaporation of core, decent-paying industries that had supported communities
for generations, and the expansion of poverty-wage, unstable, and precarious service jobs.
The administration's reluctance to confront these disruptions provoked a massive backlash against
"free trade" and globalization as abandoned workers saw their Democratic representatives allow corporations
to drive down wages, undermine labor standards inside and outside US borders, and essentially write
the rules of the global economy themselves.
One area where Obama did make meaningful changes was also, sadly, the easiest to roll back.
Similarly, the Labor Department's overhaul of the eligibility threshold for low-income salaried
workers was
set to boost the wages of millions nationwide, but
are now disintegrating with court challenges and an incoming pro-business administration.
Rulings at the National Labor Relations Board
boosted collective-bargaining rights for contractors and
graduate student workers , and helped advance organizing efforts for fast-food franchise workers.
But these measures could crumble when the new NLRB under Trump veers rightward.
But many major changes in labor policy realized under Obama happened on the state and local level,
like the proliferation of paid sick leave laws in states and cities in the past few years. And Occupy's
legacy continued in the streets with campaigns like the
Fight for 15 , which brought precarious service workers into the national spotlight, and the
Chicago Teachers Union , which thwarted the corporate school-reform coalition that Democrats
championed.
None of these achievements should be credited to the Obama White House, but they're surrounded
by the civic momentum generated with his election, and now may outlast his administration through
movements that have learned to radically depart from the liberal centrist elite - an establishment
that
ultimately crumpled in the election.
That Obama will be succeeded by such an outrageously regressive, racist regime reflects the structural
inequalities that no president could begin to dismantle, since they are
tied to a neoliberal global economic structure . But in many ways Obama failed culturally to
grapple with those injustices, retreating instead into the safer sphere of promoting symbolic equality
without material equity. Fighting those inequalities requires not technocratic tinkering in Washington
but enlisting local communities through organizing in workplaces, classrooms, and communities.
"... In the face of the enormous political chasm between the 99 percent and the 1 percent, a strategy of elite-led, bipartisan deal-cutting premised on calls for "shared sacrifice" leaves this grossly inequitable economic and political fabric intact. As such, the 99 percent are caught in the vise of small-bore policies from their supposed friends and allies while their opponents encircle them with scorched-earth politics. ..."
"... The Obama administration and much of the leadership of the Democratic Party took extreme care not to upset these basic interests. As a consequence, they squandered an exceptional political opportunity. The financial crisis and the Great Recession were one of those moments when members of the business sector were "stripped naked as leaders and strategists," in the words of Simon Johnson, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. The Great Depression was another. ..."
"... As he put the House of Morgan and other bankers on trial, Ferdinand Pecora, chief counsel of the Senate Banking Committee, helped popularize during the age of Al Capone a term not heard today: the "bankster." These hearings compelled Roosevelt to support stricter financial regulation than he might have otherwise. ..."
"... One cannot talk about crime in the streets today without talking about crime in the suites. ..."
"... The political intransigence lavishly on display in the Republican Party - which repeatedly brought Congress to a caustic standstill - obscured how a major segment of the Democratic Party was loath to mount any major challenge to the entrenched financial and political interests that have captured American politics today. ..."
"... For all the bluster about political polarization, the debate over what to do about the economy, the social safety net, and financial regulation - like the elite discussions over what to do about mass incarceration - oscillated within a very narrow range defined by neoliberalism for much of Obama's tenure. Indeed, the president repeatedly bragged that the federal budget for discretionary spending on domestic programs had shrunk under his watch to the smallest share of the economy since Dwight Eisenhower was president. ..."
Vast and growing economic inequalities rooted in vast and growing political inequalities are the
preeminent problem facing the United States today. They are the touchstone of many of the major issues
that vex the country - from mass incarceration to mass underemployment to climate change to the economic
recovery of Wall Street but not Main Street and Martin Luther King Street.
In the face of the enormous political chasm between the 99 percent and the 1 percent, a strategy
of elite-led, bipartisan deal-cutting premised on calls for "shared sacrifice" leaves this grossly
inequitable economic and political fabric intact. As such, the 99 percent are caught in the vise
of small-bore policies from their supposed friends and allies while their opponents encircle them
with scorched-earth politics.
The Obama administration and much of the leadership of the Democratic Party took extreme care
not to upset these basic interests. As a consequence, they squandered an exceptional political opportunity.
The financial crisis and the Great Recession were one of those moments when members of the business
sector were "stripped naked as leaders and strategists,"
in the words of Simon Johnson, former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund. The
Great Depression was another.
When President Franklin D. Roosevelt came into office, the Hoover administration was thoroughly
discredited, as was the business sector. FDR recognized that the country was ready for a clean break
with the past, and symbolically and substantively cultivated that sentiment. The break did not come
from FDR alone. Massive numbers of Americans mobilized in unions, women's organizations, veterans'
groups, senior citizen associations, and civil right groups to ensure that the country switched course.
During the Depression, President Roosevelt was forced to broaden the public understanding of crime
to include corporate crime. The Senate's riveting
Pecora hearings during the waning days of the Hoover administration and the start of the Roosevelt
presidency turned a scorching public spotlight on the malfeasance of the corporate sector and its
complicity in sparking the Depression.
As he put the House of Morgan and other bankers on trial, Ferdinand Pecora, chief counsel
of the Senate Banking Committee, helped popularize during the age of Al Capone a term not heard today:
the "bankster." These hearings compelled Roosevelt to support stricter financial regulation than
he might have otherwise.
One cannot talk about crime in the streets today without talking about crime in the suites.
Over the past four decades, the public obsession with getting tougher on street crime coincided with
the retreat of the state in regulating corporate malfeasance - everything from hedge funds to credit
default swaps to workplace safety. Keeping the focus on street crime was a convenient strategy to
shift public attention and resources from crime in the suites to crime in the streets.
As billionaire financier Warren Buffet
quipped
in 2006, "There's class warfare, all right, but it's my class, the rich class, that's making
war, and we're winning." President Obama's persistent calls during his first term for a politics
that rose above politics and championed "shared sacrifice" denied this reality and demobilized the
public. It thwarted the consolidation of a compelling alternative political vision on which new coalitions
and movements could be forged to challenge fundamental inequalities, including mass imprisonment
and the growing tentacles of the carceral state.
The political intransigence lavishly on display in the Republican Party - which repeatedly
brought Congress to a caustic standstill - obscured how a major segment of the Democratic Party was
loath to mount any major challenge to the entrenched financial and political interests that have
captured American politics today.
For all the bluster about political polarization, the debate over what to do about the economy,
the social safety net, and financial regulation - like the elite discussions over what to do about
mass incarceration - oscillated within a very narrow range defined by neoliberalism for much of Obama's
tenure. Indeed, the president repeatedly bragged that the federal budget for discretionary spending
on domestic programs had shrunk under his watch to the smallest share of the economy since Dwight
Eisenhower was president.
"... I do not share your view of Yellen at all. She has changed her colors overnight. Her ugly partisan side is showing. There are less painful ways to stop Trump's policies that she does not agree with than sacrificing the working class. ..."
"... Clear indication that she will revert to a Taylor rule type approach so she can justify raising rates fast to kill the Trump economy. ..."
Hopefully Yellen won't raise interest rates as high as Volcker did in the early 1980s when he
was fighting inflation.
There are better less painful ways to fight inflation but the prog neolibs don't want to explore
those options. Take it out on the working class with high unemployment.
I do not share your view of Yellen at all. She has changed her colors overnight. Her ugly
partisan side is showing. There are less painful ways to stop Trump's policies that she does not
agree with than sacrificing the working class.
BenIsNotYoda -> BenIsNotYoda... , -1
Yellen said last night - "I believe in systematic approach to monetary policy."
Clear indication that she will revert to a Taylor rule type approach so she can justify
raising rates fast to kill the Trump economy.
"... Wasn't there a recent discussion about how 401(k)s are a sham? ..."
"... Hillary should have campaigned on this policy of diverting savings to Wall Street in order to help exports. This would have gotten more voters to the polls.... Call it a private Wall St. tax on savers. ..."
"... from Miles Kimball the supply-sider ..."
"... how would Brad Setser think about an 8 percent tax on Chinese consumers that the Communist sovereign wealth fund could invest abroad for their retirement? That would boost Wall Street some more. ..."
"As I explained in my May 14, 2015 column "How Increasing
Retirement Saving Could Give America More Balanced Trade":
I talked to Madrian and David Laibson, the incoming chair
of Harvard's Economics Department (who has worked with her on
studying the effects of automatic enrollment) on the
sidelines of a Consumer Financial Protection Bureau research
conference last week. Using back-of-the-envelope calculations
based on the effects estimated in this research, they agreed
that requiring all firms to automatically enroll all
employees in a 401(k) with a default contribution rate of 8%
could increase the national saving rate on the order of 2 or
3 percent of GDP."
Wasn't there a recent discussion about how 401(k)s are a
sham?
Progressive neoliberals....
Hillary should have campaigned on this policy of diverting
savings to Wall Street in order to help exports. This would
have gotten more voters to the polls.... Call it a private
Wall St. tax on savers.
how would Brad Setser think about an 8 percent tax on Chinese
consumers that the Communist sovereign wealth fund could
invest abroad for their retirement? That would boost Wall
Street some more.
Peter K. -> Peter K....
, -1
The other benefit of Kimball's plan - from a prog neolib
viewpoint - is that it would weaken Social Security.
People are Choosing to Work Part-Time, Why Is that So Hard
for Economic Reporters to Understand?
It is really amazing how major news outlets can't seem to
find reporters who understand the most basic things about the
economy. I guess this is evidence of the skills shortage.
Bloomberg takes the hit today in a piece * discussing
areas where the economy is likely to make progress in a Trump
administration and areas where it is not. In a middle "muddle
through" category, we find "Full-Time Work Is Likely to Stay
Elusive for Part-Timers." The story is:
"Trump has highlighted the number of part-time workers in
the U.S. economy, saying 'far too many people' are working in
positions for which they are overqualified and underpaid.
While the proportion of full-time workers in the labor force
remains below its pre-recession high, it's made up most of
the ground lost during the downturn. But it hasn't budged
much in the last two years, even as the job market has gotten
tighter. Some economists point to the gig economy as the
driving force (pun intended) behind part-timers. Others see a
broader shift in the labor market that's left many workers
stuck with shorter hours, lower wages and weaker benefits."
Okay, wrong, wrong, and wrong. In its monthly employment
survey (the Current Population Survey - CPS), the Bureau of
Labor Statistics asks people whether they are working more or
less than 35 hours a week. If they are working less than 35
hours they are classified as part-time. The survey then asks
the people who are working part-time why they are working
part-time. It divides these workers into two categories,
people who work part-time for economic reasons (i.e. they
could not find full-time jobs) and people who work part-time
for non-economic reasons. In other words the second group has
chosen to work part-time.
If we look at the numbers for involuntary part-time
workers, it dropped from 6.8 million in December of 2014 to
5.6 million in December of 2016. That is a drop of 1.2
million, or almost 18 percent. That would not seem to fit the
description of not budging much. Of course Bloomberg may have
been adding in the number of people who chose to work part,
which grew by 1.4 million over this two year period, leaving
little net change in total part-time employment.
Of course there is a world of difference between a
situation where people need full-time jobs, but work
part-time, because that is the only work they can find and a
situation in which people work part-time because they don't
want to spend 40 hours a week on the job. Most of us would
probably consider it a good thing if people who wanted to
spend time with their kids, or did not want to full time for
some other reason, had the option to work part-time. This is
what in fact has been happening and it has been going on for
three years, not two.
Come on Bloomberg folks -- did you ever hear of the
Affordable Care Act (a.k.a. "Obamacare")? As a result of
Obamacare workers are no longer dependent on employers for
health care insurance. This means that many people have opted
to work part rather than full time. This has opened up full
time jobs ** for people who need them, even though it has
left total part-time employment little changed.
In total, the number of people involuntarily working
part-time has fallen by 2.2 million since the ACA has been in
effect, while the number choosing to work part-time has risen
by 2.4 million. The sharpest increase in voluntary part-time
employment has been among young mothers *** and older workers
**** just below Medicare age.
It is really incredible that this shift from involuntary
part-time to voluntary part-time is not more widely known. It
is a very important outcome from the ACA.
My impression here is that in this particular issue Dean
Baker is out of touch with reality.
Question: how many people in this 1.2 million drop because
they retired at 62 forced to take a half of their SS pension,
or left workforce?
Also, can you consider Wal-Mart or Shop Right cashier
working 36 hours for $7.5 an hour and without any benefits
(as he/she can't afford them) fully employed.
Single mothers are probably the most important category to
analyze here.
This is an example of how the libertarian and Republican
conceptions of liberty and freedom are so off the mark.
When people can afford to work part time instead of full time
to do things like raise children, attain higher education or
start companies, that is freedom. When the inaccessibility of
health insurance forces them to work full time when they
would otherwise prefer not, that is not enhanced freedom.
"... I seriously question the assumption of FOREX adjustments perfectly offsetting policy changes such that the balance of trade remains unchanged. It seems like an article of faith that things work this way, based on logic, intelligence, and economic analysis based on various models of how the world works. ..."
"... Do economists have solid models that accurately predict the movement of FOREX rates in the first place? I mean, all else being equal, and given no policy changes at all, can economists accurately forecast the exchange rates between, say, Canada and the US over the next 10 years? And, if so, why do these economists have to work for a living? Shouldn't they be enormously wealthy people by now if they possess this level of predictive capabilities? ..."
"... My personal thinking on the matter is to take a more humble approach. Given some solid reasons to believe the proposed border adjustment tax will increase the value of the dollar, but lacking a way to accurately predict FOREX, I would guess that exchange rates would adjust to cancel out only half the policy change. I'll assume trade flows adjust a bit and FOREX rates adjust a bit. And since it is just a guess, I'd be quite cautious in drawing any strong conclusions. ..."
"border adjustability. In the eurozone, where there is a fixed exchange rate of 1 between
the member countries, relying more heavily on a value-added tax-for which international rules
allow taxing imports while exempting exports from the tax-and less on other taxes, is understood
as a way to get the same effect as devaluing to an exchange rate that makes foreign goods more
expensive to people in a country and domestic goods cheaper to foreigners. But in a floating
exchange rate setup as the US has, most of the effects of border adjustment can be canceled
out by an explicit appreciation in the dollar that cancels out the implicit devaluation from
the tax shift. And indeed, such an appreciation of the dollar is exactly what one should expect."
The architect of this Destination Based Cash Flow Tax with "Border Adjustments" (is that
like sprinkles on top) is Alan Auerbach and even he admits this. Miles moves onto something
else I have been saying:
"A way to push down the value of the dollar and stimulate net exports for a much longer
time is to increase saving rates in the US As greater saving pushed down US rates of return,
some of that extra saving would wind up in foreign assets, putting extra US dollars in the
hands of folks abroad, so they would have US dollars to buy US goods. This effect can be enhanced
if the regulations for automatic enrollment are favorable to a substantial portion (say 30%)
of the default investment option being in foreign assets. Note that an increase in US saving
would tend to push down the natural interest rate, and so needs to be accompanied by the elimination
of the zero lower bound in order to avoid making it hard for monetary policy to respond to
recessions."
OK – it might not be so easy to lower the natural rate now but back in 1981, real interest
rates soared as the Reagan tax cuts lowered national savings. This led to a massive dollar appreciation
and a large drop in net exports.
I seriously question the assumption of FOREX adjustments perfectly offsetting policy changes
such that the balance of trade remains unchanged. It seems like an article of faith that things
work this way, based on logic, intelligence, and economic analysis based on various models of
how the world works.
But while this view seems to be held by intelligent people with far more economic education
that I will ever have, I am wondering if there is any empirical evidence that supports this reasoning?
I am sceptical.
Do economists have solid models that accurately predict the movement of FOREX rates in
the first place? I mean, all else being equal, and given no policy changes at all, can economists
accurately forecast the exchange rates between, say, Canada and the US over the next 10 years?
And, if so, why do these economists have to work for a living? Shouldn't they be enormously wealthy
people by now if they possess this level of predictive capabilities?
My personal thinking on the matter is to take a more humble approach. Given some solid
reasons to believe the proposed border adjustment tax will increase the value of the dollar, but
lacking a way to accurately predict FOREX, I would guess that exchange rates would adjust to cancel
out only half the policy change. I'll assume trade flows adjust a bit and FOREX rates adjust a
bit. And since it is just a guess, I'd be quite cautious in drawing any strong conclusions.
I welcome comments that would help educate me on this subject. Best wishes to all.
Before the opportunity-window slams shut, harvest your data from the market! You need to record
a baseline from the last moments of the O'Bummer World. Sure!
You will wish him back, but that is beside the point. We are scientists not wishers.
Hello. Thank you for this link. I found this comment by Peter Dornman to be interesting: "And
also, yes, any theory that implies a known relationship between macro variables and forex rates
is *very* counter-empirical."
If his comment is correct, it makes me wonder about the reliability of Miles Kimball's analysis.
There are certain types of problems we just can't reliably analyze, as they are too complicated,
or the underlying physics is subject to extreme sensitivity to accuracy of the inputs (chaos theory,
basically). For instance, our ability to make meaningful forecasts of the weather is limited to
a few days. Maybe FOREX predictions are like that? If so, we should be cautious about making any
strong statements about FOREX adjustments precisely offsetting policy changes.
I mean, doesn't it seem like hubris when you can't predict what a variable will do given no
changes to current conditions, but you decide that you can predict *precisely* what it will do
if we make changes to current conditions?
"Do economists have solid models that accurately predict the movement of FOREX rates in the first
place?"
Meese-Rogoff showed that exchange rates are disconnected from fundamentals. It's called the
'foreign exchange puzzle.'
Yet pgl keeps insisting on an 'if x then y' approach to most problems. His key variable is
interest rates, which are at the root of most every change in pglian universe.
I'm actually surprised that he departs from his rate-centric universe to suggest that Trump
might be responsible for something like the fall of the peso, though he stridently rejects the
idea that Trump's bully pulpit might shame American companies into keeping more jobs at home.
"... "the high military, the corporation executives, the political directorate have tended to come together to form the power elite of America." ..."
"... He describes how the power elite can be best described as a "triangle of power," linking the corporate, executive government, and military factions: "There is a political economy numerously linked with military order and decision. This triangle of power is now a structural fact, and it is the key to any understanding of the higher circles in America today." ..."
"... During the election campaign the power elite's military faction under Trump confounded all political pundits by outflanking and decisively defeating the power elite's political faction. ..."
"... At the time this was the highest level internal US intelligence confirmation of the theory that western governments fundamentally see the Islamic State as their own tool for regime change in Syria. The military faction began a steady stream of "one-sided" leaks to Pulitzer Prize winning investigative journalist, Seymour Hersh who published one article after another that undermined the political (Obama administration) and corporate (CIA and intelligence) factions of the power elite, while painting the military faction in a positive light. ..."
"... The first article entitled Whose Sarin? was published on 19 December, 2013 and concerned the East Ghouta sarin gas attack of August 21, 2013. Hersh documents a clear campaign within the power elite's military faction to "foot-drag" and hopefully block the planned US retaliation for crossing President Obama's "red line": "[S]ome members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff were troubled by the prospect of a ground invasion of Syria as well as by Obama's professed desire to give rebel factions non-lethal support. In July, General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, provided a gloomy assessment, telling the Senate Armed Services Committee in public testimony that 'thousands of special operations forces and other ground forces' would be needed to seize Syria's widely dispersed chemical warfare arsenal, along with 'hundreds of aircraft, ships, submarines and other enablers'." ..."
"... A cornered Obama welcomed a draft UN resolution calling on the Assad government to get rid of its chemical arsenal. The political faction's step-down pleased many senior military officers, explains Hersh: "One high-level special operations adviser told me that the ill-conceived American missile attack on Syrian military airfields and missile emplacements, as initially envisaged by the White House, would have been 'like providing close air support for al-Nusra'." ..."
"... General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs had irritated many in the Obama administration by repeatedly warning Congress over the summer of the danger of American military involvement in Syria. The military faction also had the advantage of a British intelligence report of a sample of sarin, recovered by Russian military intelligence operatives, proving it was not from the Syrian army. Further suspicions were aroused within the military faction when more than ten members of the al-Nusra Front were arrested in southern Turkey with two kilograms of sarin. Hersh quotes his internal military source: "'We knew there were some in the Turkish government,' a former senior US intelligence official, who has access to current intelligence, told me, 'who believed they could get Assad's nuts in a vice by dabbling with a sarin attack inside Syria – and forcing Obama to make good on his red line threat.'" ..."
"... Further revelations included how the Obama administration, through the CIA, had by early 2012 created a "rat line", a back channel highway into Syria, used to funnel weapons and ammunition from Libya via southern Turkey and across the Syrian border to jihadists, some of them affiliated with Al-Qaeda. ..."
"... Hersh's source explains how a Senate Intelligence Committee report on the assault by a local militia on the American consulate and a nearby undercover CIA facility in Benghazi, which resulted in the death of the US ambassador, Christopher Stevens, and three others in September 2012, revealed a secret agreement for the "rat line" reached in early 2012 between the Obama and Erdoğan administrations: "By the terms of the agreement, funding came from Turkey, as well as Saudi Arabia and Qatar; the CIA, with the support of MI6, was responsible for getting arms from Gaddafi's arsenals into Syria." ..."
"... After Washington abruptly ended the CIA's role in the transfer of arms from Libya the "rat line" continued and became more ominous: "'The United States was no longer in control of what the Turks were relaying to the jihadists,' the former intelligence official said. Within weeks, as many as forty portable surface-to-air missile launchers, commonly known as manpads, were in the hands of Syrian rebels." ..."
In a recent UNZ article titled:
Political science's "theory of everything" a concise map of the US establishment, both the
visible and invisible government was mapped. Based on this map a theory emerged that showed how the
visible government has been subverted by an invisible unelected government that was described as
a corporate-deep-state. The levels of the US establishment were identified as a power elite conspiratorial
leadership overseeing a corporatocracy and directing a deep state that has gradually subverted the
visible US government and taken over the "levers of power."
The power elite
The invisible rulers of the US establishment were revealed by Professor C. Wright Mill in his
article titled, The Structure of
Power in American Society (The British Journal of Sociology, March 1958), in which he explains
how, "the high military, the corporation executives, the political directorate have tended to come
together to form the power elite of America."
He describes how the power elite can be best described as a "triangle of power," linking the corporate,
executive government, and military factions: "There is a political economy numerously linked with
military order and decision. This triangle of power is now a structural fact, and it is the key to
any understanding of the higher circles in America today."
The 2016 US election, like all other US elections, featured a gallery of pre-selected candidates
that represented the three factions and their interests within the power elite. The 2016 US election,
however, was vastly different from previous elections. As the election dragged on the power elite
became bitterly divided, with the majority supporting Hilary Clinton, the candidate pre-selected
by the political and corporate factions, while the military faction rallied around their choice of
Donald Trump.
During the election campaign the power elite's military faction under Trump confounded all
political pundits by outflanking and decisively defeating the power elite's political faction.
In fact by capturing
the Republican nomination and overwhelmingly defeating the Democratic establishment, Trump and the
military faction not just shattered the power elites' political faction, within both the Democratic
and Republican parties, but simultaneously ended both the Clinton and Bush dynasties.
During the election campaign the power elite's corporate faction realised, far too late, that
Trump was a direct threat to their power base, and turned the full force of their corporate media
against Trump's military faction, while Trump using social media bypassed and eviscerated the corporate
media causing them to lose all remaining credibility.
As the election reached a crescendo this battle between the power elite's factions became visible
within the US establishment's entities. A schism developed between the Defense Department and the
highly politicized CIA This schism, which can be attributed to the corporate-deep-state's covert
foreign policy, traces back to the CIA orchestrated "color revolutions" that had swept the Middle
East and North Africa.
The covert invasion of Syria
A US Pentagon, DIA report, formerly classified "SECRET//NOFORN" and dated August 12, 2012, was
circulated widely among various government agencies, including CENTCOM, the CIA, FBI, DHS, NGA, State
Dept., and many others.
Astoundingly, the
declassified report states that for "THE WEST, GULF COUNTRIES, AND TURKEY [WHO] SUPPORT THE [SYRIAN]
OPPOSITION THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF ESTABLISHING A DECLARED OR UNDECLARED SALAFIST PRINCIPALITY
IN EASTERN SYRIA (HASAKA AND DER ZOR), AND THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT THE SUPPORTING POWERS TO THE OPPOSITION
WANT, IN ORDER TO ISOLATE THE SYRIAN REGIME ".
The document shows that as early as 2012, US intelligence predicted the rise of the Salafist Islamic
State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL or ISIS), but instead of clearly delineating the group as an enemy,
the report envisions the terror group as a US strategic asset.
At the time this was the highest level internal US intelligence confirmation of the theory that
western governments fundamentally see the Islamic State as their own tool for regime change in Syria.
The military faction began a steady stream of "one-sided" leaks to Pulitzer Prize winning investigative
journalist, Seymour Hersh who published
one article after another
that undermined the political (Obama administration) and corporate (CIA and intelligence) factions
of the power elite, while painting the military faction in a positive light.
Whose sarin?
The first article entitled
Whose Sarin?
was published on 19 December, 2013 and concerned the East Ghouta sarin gas attack of August
21, 2013. Hersh documents a clear campaign within the power elite's military faction to "foot-drag"
and hopefully block the planned US retaliation for crossing President Obama's "red line": "[S]ome
members of the Joint Chiefs of Staff were troubled by the prospect of a ground invasion of Syria
as well as by Obama's professed desire to give rebel factions non-lethal support. In July, General
Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, provided a gloomy assessment, telling the Senate Armed
Services Committee in public testimony that 'thousands of special operations forces and other ground
forces' would be needed to seize Syria's widely dispersed chemical warfare arsenal, along with 'hundreds
of aircraft, ships, submarines and other enablers'."
A cornered Obama welcomed a draft UN resolution calling on the Assad government to get rid of
its chemical arsenal. The political faction's step-down pleased many senior military officers, explains
Hersh: "One high-level special operations adviser told me that the ill-conceived American missile
attack on Syrian military airfields and missile emplacements, as initially envisaged by the White
House, would have been 'like providing close air support for al-Nusra'."
The Red Line and the Rat Line
The second article titled
The Red Line and the Rat Line was published on 17 April, 2014 and explains why Obama delayed
and then relented on Syria when he was not shy about rushing into Libya: "The answer lies in a clash
between those in the administration (political faction) who were committed to enforcing the red line,
and military leaders who thought that going to war was both unjustified and potentially disastrous."
General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs had irritated many in the Obama administration
by repeatedly warning Congress over the summer of the danger of American military involvement in
Syria. The military faction also had the advantage of a British intelligence report of a sample of
sarin, recovered by Russian military intelligence operatives, proving it was not from the Syrian
army. Further suspicions were aroused within the military faction when more than ten members of the
al-Nusra Front were arrested in southern Turkey with two kilograms of sarin. Hersh quotes his internal
military source: "'We knew there were some in the Turkish government,' a former senior US intelligence
official, who has access to current intelligence, told me, 'who believed they could get Assad's nuts
in a vice by dabbling with a sarin attack inside Syria – and forcing Obama to make good on his red
line threat.'"
Further revelations included how the Obama administration, through the CIA, had by early 2012
created a "rat line", a back channel highway into Syria, used to funnel weapons and ammunition from
Libya via southern Turkey and across the Syrian border to jihadists, some of them affiliated with
Al-Qaeda.
Hersh's source explains how a Senate Intelligence Committee report on the assault by a local militia
on the American consulate and a nearby undercover CIA facility in Benghazi, which resulted in the
death of the US ambassador, Christopher Stevens, and three others in September 2012, revealed a secret
agreement for the "rat line" reached in early 2012 between the Obama and Erdoğan administrations:
"By the terms of the agreement, funding came from Turkey, as well as Saudi Arabia and Qatar; the
CIA, with the support of MI6, was responsible for getting arms from Gaddafi's arsenals into Syria."
After Washington abruptly ended the CIA's role in the transfer of arms from Libya the "rat line"
continued and became more ominous: "'The United States was no longer in control of what the Turks
were relaying to the jihadists,' the former intelligence official said. Within weeks, as many as
forty portable surface-to-air missile launchers, commonly known as manpads, were in the hands of
Syrian rebels."
The Killing of Osama bin Laden
The third article titled
The Killing of Osama bin Laden was published on 17 April, 2014. The Obama administration
needed a public relations win on the eve of his second term election and according to Hersh's military
source: "'the killing of bin Laden was political theatre designed to burnish Obama's military credentials.'"
Hersh's article goes on to systematically debunk the Obama administration's entire clumsy cover
story while implicating the Saudis and Pakistanis who financed and protected Osama bin Laden. He
goes on to reveal that once he had outlived his usefulness, to the Pakistanis, he was traded to the
Americans who murdered him in cold blood and tossed his mutilated body parts over the Hindu Kish
mountains.
The article further reveals how the Senate Intelligence Committee's long-delayed report on CIA
torture, released in December 2013 concluded that the CIA lied systematically about the effectiveness
of its torture programme in gaining intelligence that would stop future terrorist attacks in the
US.
Military to Military
Hersh's fourth article titled
Military
to Military was published on 7 January 2016, and details how an exasperated military faction
continued to repeat warnings that the fall of the Assad regime would lead to Libyan style chaos and,
potentially, to Syria's takeover by jihadi extremists. They were continuously ignored by both the
political faction and the intelligence services: "[A]lthough many in the American intelligence community
were aware that the Syrian opposition was dominated by extremists the CIA-sponsored weapons kept
coming General Dempsey and his colleagues on the Joint Chiefs of Staff kept their dissent out of
bureaucratic channels, and survived in office. General Michael Flynn did not. 'Flynn incurred the
wrath of the White House by insisting on telling the truth about Syria,' said Patrick Lang, a retired
army colonel who served for nearly a decade as the chief Middle East civilian intelligence officer
for the DIA. 'He thought truth was the best thing and they shoved him out. He wouldn't shut up.'
Flynn told me his problems went beyond Syria. 'I was shaking things up at the DIA – and not just
moving deckchairs on the Titanic. It was radical reform. I felt that the civilian leadership did
not want to hear the truth. I suffered for it, but I'm OK with that.'"
Hersh's paper further highlights a rebellion under the leadership of Joint Chiefs of Staff that
was then led by General Martin Dempsey. He began to send a flow of US intelligence through allied
militaries to the Syrian Arab Army and he orchestrated a deliberate plan to downgrade the quality
of the arms being supplied to the rebels by the CIA The military's indirect pathway to Assad disappeared
with Dempsey's retirement in September 2015. The political faction then replaced Dempsey, as chairman
of the Joint Chiefs, with General Joseph Dunford who advocated a "hard line" on Russia.
The power elite's military faction realised that radical reform could not begin until the military
faction had full political support behind them.
Rise of the Generals
In the 2016 US election Trump with the full weight of the military faction behind him pulled off
a stunning victory against the entire political faction – defeating both the Democratic and Republican
Party machines – and the corporate media.
The cornerstone of the corporatocracy, the Wall Street lobby, due to the sheer amount of fiat
petrodollar based money it generates, and the influence it has over the US establishment was officially
dethroned. The locus of power within the power elite had suddenly and dramatically shifted from Wall
St to the Pentagon.
Although the situation is very fluid on the eve of the Trump presidency a map highlighting the
US establishment entities supporting either Trump or his defeated opponent Clinton can be arguably
mapped below.
Trump quickly named security hardliners including past and present generals and FBI officials,
to key security and intelligence positions while the corporate media accused Trump of having a starry-eyed
fascination with the brass of America's losing wars.
Army Lieutenant General Michael Flynn, who was forced from his position as director of the Defense
Intelligence Agency in 2014, will be President-elect Donald Trump's national security adviser. Army
retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg will be serving in a supporting capacity to Flynn as chief
of staff of the National Security Council (NSC).
Trump selected retired General James Mattis to lead the Department of Defense. Mattis, a
documented war criminal , had helped cover up the 2005 Haditha massacre of 24 unarmed Iraqi civilians
by US soldiers. His soldiers also directly committed war crimes in the US sieges of Fallujah in 2004,
when his forces not only used white phosphorus but fired on and killed up to 5,000 innocent civilians.
General Mattis has called for a "new security architecture for the Mideast built on sound policy
Iran is a special case that must be dealt with as a threat to regional stability, nuclear and otherwise."
On a positive Mattis also got Trump to
reconsider his stance on torture stating, "'I've never found it to be useful."
General John Kelly, another long-serving Marine with a reputation for bluntness, has been picked
to head the Department of Homeland Security. He is the most senior US officer to have lost a child
in the "war on terror". His son Robert, a first lieutenant in the marines, was killed in combat in
Afghanistan in 2010. He therefore strongly opposed efforts by the Obama administration to close the
prison at Guantanamo Bay in Cuba, claiming that the remaining detainees were "all bad boys," both
guilty and dangerous.
And in selecting career military men like Flynn, Mattis and Kelly as his senior civilian advisers
on military matters, Trump is in essence strengthening defense while creating rival intelligence
entities that will remain loyal to his military faction.
Meanwhile Big Oil's Rex Tillerson - the former CEO of world's largest oil company, ExxonMobil
- is to be Secretary of State. He has a two-decade relationship with Russian President Vladimir V.
Putin, who awarded Tillerson the Order of Friendship in 2013.
Mindful of others who defied the US establishment, Trump's supporters delivered an ominous warning
to rival power elite factions that
should Trump be assassinated then a civil war would follow. In reality an assassination in today's
climate, without the support of the corporatocracy's now discredited media, would usher in martial
law and further ensconce the military faction within their seat of power.
Playing chess like Putin
Trump and his military faction appear to greatly admire Putin personally, and in September 2016
during the NBC Commander-in-Chief Forum Trump stated: "I will tell you that, in terms of leadership,
he's getting an 'A' and our president is not doing so well." Trump's military faction, unlike the
other two factions sees Russia as more of a partner than an adversary and he is deeply committed
to reorienting American foreign policy in a pro-Russian direction.
Trump knows Putin's history well and appears intent on following in his footsteps. Putin took
office by
striking a deal with Russia's political elite to protect former Russian President Yeltsin and
his family from prosecution in exchange for Putin becoming Prime Minister and later President.
Then on July 28, 2000, after they had funded his election campaign, Vladimir Putin gathered the
18 most powerful businessmen (corporatocracy) in Russia and denounced the corporate elite as creators
of a corrupt state. During the transition from Communism in the 1990s these oligarchs – the majority
Jewish – had taken control of every single lever of power in Russia including the central bank, the
mass media and even the Kremlin.
In a second meeting on January 24, 2001, Vladimir Putin met with 21 leading oligarchs and stressed
that the Russian state had no plans to re-nationalize the economy, but added that they should have
"a feeling of responsibility [to] the people and the country" and asked them to donate $2.6 million
to a fund he was setting up to help families of soldiers wounded or killed in action.
True to his word the oligarchs that complied were allowed to keep the money they had looted from
the Russian people. Those that didn't comply, like Berezovsky and Gusinsky, Russia's two most infamous
and hated oligarchs, were gradually pushed out, and in some cases even imprisoned.
After defeating the oligarchs and gaining control of their media Putin then began to methodically
cleanse the Russian government and the Kremlin of corporate influence.
Corporatocracy
Professor Jeffry Sachs calls the US corporate conspiracy The Rigged Game in which the political
system has come to be controlled by powerful corporate interest groups – the "corporatocracy" – who
dominate the policy agenda. Sachs explains how "[a] healthy economy is a mixed economy, in which
government and the marketplace both play their role. Yet the federal government has neglected its
role for three decades."
President Trump appears to have taken a page from Sach's book and, even before taking office,
is signalling that his government will not neglect its role.
During an interview with Fortune on April 19, 2016, Donald Trump explicitly explained how
he planned on taking back the economic "levers of power" from Wall Street's Federal Reserve by supporting:
"proposals that would take power away from the Fed, and allow Congress to audit the U.S. central
bank's decision making."
On December, 6, 2016 it was the
military industrial complex's Boeing that felt the brunt of his attack when President-elect Donald
Trump called for the scrapping of multi-billion dollar plans for Boeing to build a new Air Force
One, calling the costs "ridiculous and totally out of control." He then followed this up on December
12, 2016, when he took on the
Lockheed Martin by attacking the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter on Twitter, saying the cost of the
next-generation stealth plane is "out of control," stating: "Billions of dollars can and will be
saved on military (and other) purchases after January 20th."
In an early December
interview with TIME ahead of his selection as TIME's Person of the Year, Trump railed against
the Healthcare lobby when he stated that he doesn't "like what's happened with drug prices" and that
he will "bring down" the cost of prescription medication.
Even earlier, on January 2016, at Liberty University, Trump had startled Silicon Valley when he
promised to punish companies that offshore production by placing
tariffs on their imports coming back to the US: "We're going to get Apple to build their damn
computers and things in this country instead of in other countries."
The Big Oil lobby, initially ambivalent, now appears to have put its weight behind Trump. There
are signs that the Big Oil lobby may have fallen out with the corporatocracy over the economic sanctions
on Russia and access to its vast untapped oil fields, as well as Saudi Arabia's two years of flooding
the global market with cheap crude in order to drive oil prices down and economically damage the
Russian economy. This policy had made both US shale oil and US energy independence unsustainable.
While the corporatocracy will survive, the days of crony capitalism appear to be coming to an
end.
The death of neoliberalism
The Trump election, much like Brexit before it, signals an entirely new development not witnessed
since the shift towards neoliberalism under President Reagan over 40 years ago. Trump has promised
to end the neoliberal, hyper-globalisation ideology in which the interests of the working class have
been sacrificed in favour of the corporatocracy that has been encouraged to invest around the world
depriving Americans of their jobs.
The global financial crisis of 2008, the worst since the great depression of 1931, saw Wall Street
bailed out by the taxpayers while the responsible bankers were not prosecuted for their crimes. Under
the Obama administration this was further compounded by rejecting bailouts for homeowners, oversee
growing inequality, militarisation, covert operations and the facilitating of overseas war crimes.
Meanwhile, nine years on, the neoliberal practice of quantitative easing has failed to revive
the economic patient who remains on "life support." This after effect of the global financial crisis
has served to undermine the peoples' faith and trust in the competence of the power elite's political
faction and the corporate media. Trump's ascendency thus signals the beginning of the end of the
neoliberal era.
Trumps promise to, "Put America first," pulls the plug on neoliberalism's economic life support
and imposes a new era of economic nationalism. The military faction will abandon unfettered capitalism,
free trade agreements and globalisation in favour of de-globalisation, economic nationalism, rebuilding
of infrastructure, the middle class and manufacturing.
The table below is fluid but is based on current policy details, revealed by Trump, and details
how the current neoliberal policies may gradually shift to policies of economic nationalism.
Government departments
Masses' Policies
Neo-Liberal Policies
Economic nationalism Policies
Corporatocracy lobbies
Dept. of State
Establishment of friendly relations with other nations.
Maintenance of the petrodollar through the support of compliant authoritarian nations or
covert funding of unstable extremists to overthrow non-compliant nations
Maintenance of the petrodollar through the support of compliant authoritarian nations.
Multilateral approach of working with Russia while continuing to isolate China and Iran
Wall Street-Washington complex
Dept. of the Treasury
Lower and fairer tax system that incentivises workers and savers
Financialisation, corporate subsidies, tax loopholes and overseas tax havens.
nationalisation, cutting of corporate subsidies, closing of tax loopholes and overseas
tax havens.
Universal human rights, equal justice and fair trials
Non-prosecution of criminal bank leaders, with prosecution of deep state whistle blowers.
Prosecution of corporate crime, Non-prosecution of military and police crimes, continued
prosecution of deep state whistle blowers.
Dept. of Housing & Urban Development
Affordable and easily accessible housing.
Financialisation, housing speculation and homelessness.
Removal of "red tape", opening up of land for building
Dept. of Defense
Security and Defense of citizens against foreign enemies
Maintenance of the petrodollar, full spectrum dominance, exceptionalism, war on terrorism
and the militarization of foreign policy .
Maintenance of the petrodollar, full spectrum dominance, multi-polarity, war on terrorism
military-industrial complex
Dept. of Veterans Affairs
Support and subsidies for veterans
Cheap outsourced care facilities and abandoned veterans.
Renationalisation of care facilities and housing, medical and mental care
for war veterans.
Dept. of Transport
Electric vehicles, subsidised transport and easily accessible transportation
grid.
Subsidised car-centric policies and urban planning.
Subsidised car-centric policies and urban planning.
Big Oil-transport-military complex
Dept. of Energy
Environmental protection, reliable and nationalised mostly renewable energy
supply.
Subsidised fossil fuel energy dependence and debunking of climate change.
Subsidised fossil fuel energy dependence and debunking of climate change.
Dept. of the Interior
Management and conservation federal land and natural resources.
Waiving of environmental protection, access for sea lanes, pipelines, mining
and resource extraction.
Waiving of environmental protection, access for sea lanes, pipelines, mining
and resource extraction.
Dept. of Health & Human Services
Subsidised and universal Healthcare.
mandatory healthcare and privatisation.
privatised healthcare
Healthcare industry
Dept. of Homeland Security
Security and Privacy.
Mass Surveillance and copyright enforcement.
Mass Surveillance
Silicon Valley
Dept. of Agriculture
Healthy, nutritious and affordable food.
Food monopolisation and dependence through patented GMOs.
Breaking up of monopolies, increased competition.
Big Ag (Monsanto)
Dept. of Education
Subsidised and universal education.
Class-based privatisation and outsourcing.
Increased investment in education.
Organised Labor
Dept. of Labor
Jobs and decent wages.
Outsourcing, mass immigration to lower wages, commodification of Labor, deregulation,
deindustrialisation, under employment and unemployment.
Reshoring, border controls to boost wages, return of skilled labor, reregulation,
reindustrialisation, full employment, lower taxes
All lobbies
Monetary hegemony strategy
The power elite's monetary hegemony petrodollar strategy will remain unchanged under Trumps' military
faction. However, Trump's foreign policy signals the end of America's unipolar moment, the period
that was called the "new world order" by George Bush after the collapse of the former USSR and the
US's 1991 Gulf War victory.
It took the actions of former
rogue CIA operatives,
called Al Qaeda, to give the US an excuse to invade and conquer key economic chokepoints and
geopolitical pivot nations, in the heart of the world's oil reserves that would give the power elite
global economic and military dominance. These power elite plans were given to the Joint Chiefs of
Staff, at the time, and documented in a memo that a puzzled senior staff officer showed to General
Wesley Clark:"[W]e're going to
take out seven countries in five years , starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya,
Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran."
The Republican-led neoconservative "war on terror" phase, that took place from 2001 to 2011, symbolised
the overt US invasion, occupation and destruction of primarily Afghanistan and Iraq. When worldwide
condemnation combined with Iraqi military resistance proved too great, the power elite were forced
to switch to more covert means.
Under the new Obama administration, a Democratic-led, CIA-orchestrated "Arab Spring" took place
from 2011-2016 and symbolised the covert invasion of Libya and Syria using reconstituted terrorist
death squads. The power elite had not only used the 9/11 attack conducted by elements of their rogue
terrorist death squads to invade Iraq and Afghanistan, but they were now going to reconstitute a
compliant group of the same terrorists and use them to covertly invade Libya and Syria.
With the Syrian government's capture of Aleppo in late 2016, it became apparent to all observers
that both the overt and covert US invasions were soundly defeated primarily by heroic resistance
forces in Iraq and Syria, respectively.
With the barbaric US invasions blunted, the Trump administration now represents a rear-guard attempting
to hold onto key nations in the heart of the world's global energy reserves and maintain the US's
petrodollar monetary hegemony backing, while Trump transitions his economy from a financial to an
industrial economy. Trump will thus continue to secure the GCC nations, especially Saudi Arabia,
provided they reign in their terrorist death squads, plaguing the Middle East. Israel will also be
fully supported and used to maintain the current Middle Eastern stalemate against Iran.
It is however Trump's détente with Russia that is truly significant as it signals the end of the
unipolar "new world order." Russia will once again be allowed its own "sphere of influence." This
will most likely see Crimean reunification accepted the return of economically plundered Ukraine
to Russian influence and the Russian presence in Syria acknowledged.
In return the military faction wants to desperately break up the tripartite strategic Eurasian
team of Russia-China-Iran. The military faction wants Russia to help block China's rise in the South
China Sea and to contain Iran. The military faction appears to have been inspired by documented war
criminal, Henry Kissinger, who at
the Primakov lecture in February 2016 stated: "The long-term interests of both countries call
for a world that transforms the contemporary turbulence and flux into a new equilibrium which is
increasingly multipolar and globalized ..Russia should be perceived as an essential element of any
new global equilibrium, not primarily as a threat to the United States." Draining the swamp?
For the first time in memory the US establishment, consisting of the visible US Government and
the invisible corporate-deep-state that has subverted it, have had a dramatic schism. Contrary to
corporate media hand-wringing, the 2016 US election for the masses was never about a choice for Trump
over Clinton, it was in reality a choice of, the same united power elite maintaining the same US
establishment under President select Clinton, versus a divided power elite led by Trump's military
faction.
This seminal moment represents a change of both US strategy and tactics that have been used to
maintain the US's economic and military power.
Strategically, while the power elite have finally abandoned America's unipolar moment, they will
now maintain the US as a multipolar global hegemon receiving its petrodollar tribute. Their plans
are to finally grant Russia, but not China, its own "sphere of influence" and to cleave it away from
its Eurasian and Middle Eastern allies.
Economically and tactically neoliberalism, as an ideology, is now officially dead. The power elite's
corporatocracy (corporate faction) will be tamed and replaced by a protectionist, localised, rebuilding
of America's manufacturing base.
While not exactly "draining the swamp," the new Trump administration plans on "fencing off some
of the alligators" that have devoured so many innocents during 40 years of neoliberalism at home
and militarism abroad.
To listen to a podcast by the author explaining how the political science's "theory of everything"
may help to predict the new Trump administration select the following link:
Disillusioned
in Davos : Edmund Burke famously cautioned that "the only thing necessary for the triumph
of evil is for good men to do nothing." I have been reminded of Burke's words as I have observed
the behavior of US business leaders in Davos over the last few days. They know better but in their
public rhetoric they have embraced and enabled our new President and his policies.
I understand and sympathize with the pressures they feel. ... Businesses who get on the wrong
side of the new President have
lost billions of dollars of value in sixty seconds because of a tweet. ...
Yet I am disturbed by (i) the spectacle of financiers who three months ago were telling anyone
who would listen that they would never do business with a Trump company rushing to praise the
new Administration (ii) the unwillingness of business leaders who rightly take pride in their
corporate efforts to promote women and minorities to say anything about Presidentially
sanctioned intolerance
(iii) the failure of the leaders of global companies to say a critical word about US efforts to
encourage the breakup of European unity and more generally to step away from underwriting an open
global system (iv) the reluctance of business leaders who have a huge stake in the current global
order to criticize provocative rhetoric with regard to China, Mexico or the Middle East (v) the
willingness of too many to praise Trump nominees who advocate blatant protection merely because
they have a business background.
I have
my differences with the new Administration's
economic policies and suspect the recent market rally and run of economic statistics is a
sugar high. Reasonable people who I respect differ and time will tell. My objection is not to
disagreements over economic policy. It is to enabling if not encouraging immoral and reckless
policies in other spheres that ultimately bear on our prosperity. Burke was right. It is a lesson
of human experience whether the issue is playground bullying, Enron or Europe in the 1930s that
the worst outcomes occur when good people find reasons to accommodate themselves to what they
know is wrong. That is what I think happened much too often in Davos this week.
No man, who is not inflamed by vainglory into enthusiasm, can flatter himself that his single,
unsupported, desultory, unsystematic endeavours are of power to defeat the subtle designs and
united Cabals of ambitious citizens. When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they
will fall, one by one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.
-- Edmund Burke
anne -> anne... , -1
Edmund Burke famously cautioned that "the only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for
good men to do nothing."
The Social Responsibility of Business is to Increase its Profits
By Milton Friedman - New York Times
When I hear businessmen speak eloquently about the "social responsibilities of business in
a free-enterprise system," I am reminded of the wonderful line about the Frenchman who discovered
at the age of 70 that he had been speaking prose all his life. The businessmen believe that they
are defending free enterprise when they declaim that business is not concerned "merely" with profit
but also with promoting desirable "social" ends; that business has a "social conscience" and takes
seriously its responsibilities for providing employment, eliminating discrimination, avoiding
pollution and whatever else may be the catchwords of the contemporary crop of reformers. In fact
they are–or would be if they or anyone else took them seriously–preaching pure and unadulterated
socialism. Businessmen who talk this way are unwitting puppets of the intellectual forces that
have been undermining the basis of a free society these past decades....
When I used to read Delong's blog before Delong went off on Sanders because Delong thought that
Hillary Clinton would give Delongs son a job...
There was economics student that penned a response where he mentioned that the economics profession
generally dislikes models with negative externalities. But truly loath models that incorporate
positive externalities.
A positive externality is where some action on your part benefits you _and_ benefits some third
party.
One can assume Milton Friedman and his followers find that concept revolting indeed.
While I was not in Davos, I read about the proceedings and meeting in the Western European and
Chinese press and was impressed by the community emphasis placed on social justice. Possibly there
was considerable individual resistance to the public theme, and Lawrence Summers would readily
sense such resistance, but the public theme from the speech by Xi Jinping on was encouraging and
portrayed in Western Europe and China as encouraging.
Let me rephrase: Name me some Fortune 500 companies who consider potential societal impacts of
their actions and, as a result, sometimes make decisions which don't maximize their profits but
are the "right" thing to do for the community/their workers/the environment/etc.? What Fortune
500 companies are motivated by things beyond maximizing profits for shareholders?
My point is that corporate leaders who are charged to act to maximize profits will always be
cowards when it comes to moral and ethical issues. If their job is to maximize profits. If they
don't want to lose their job then that's what they'll do - act to maximize profits. Where would
Summers get the idea that they would act any differently? Do the people he's referring to have
a track record of choosing the moral high ground over profits? If they do then I could understand
surprise and disappointment that they're folding. But they've never had to face that choice before
let alone chosen moral high ground over money, have they?
My point is that corporate leaders who are charged to act to maximize profits will always be cowards
when it comes to moral and ethical issues. If their job is to maximize profits. If they don't
want to lose their job then that's what they'll do - act to maximize profits. Where would Summers
get the idea that they would act any differently? Do the people he's referring to have a track
record of choosing the moral high ground over profits? ...
I recall Summers/Romer with both houses and Obama blowing their chances to do something for the
middle/working class.
Summers/Delong said if the stimulus was too small we could always get another later, yet that
chance to do something never came and he did nothing.....
I'd like Larry to ponder whether it was he who did nothing.
"... Trump may end their expert preparedness for unending war. ..."
"... Neolib/neocon conartists call their truthful detractors unready or ignorant of unpatriotic or Russian tools. Sore
losers. Does not make war mongers right! ..."
Let me try. First of all, it is properly called non-interventionism and as such it is the opposing theory to neoconservatism,
especially its Allbright-Kagan-Nuland troika flavor, which actually does not deviate much from so called liberal interventionists
(Vishy left) such as Hillary-Samantha Power-Susan Rice troika.
It would be nice to put them on trial, because all of then fall under Nuremberg statute for war crimes. But this is
a pipe dream in the current USA political climate with it unhinged militarism and jingoism.
Here is something that more or less resembles the definition
Americans have grown understandably weary of foreign entanglements over the last 12 years of open-ended warfare, and
they are now more receptive to a noninterventionist message than they have been in decades. According to a recent Pew
survey, 52 percent of Americans now prefer that the U.S. "mind its own business in international affairs," which represents
the most support for a restrained and modest foreign policy in the last 50 years. That presents a challenge and an opportunity
for noninterventionists to articulate a coherent and positive case for what a foreign policy of peace and prudence would
mean in practice. As useful and necessary as critiquing dangerous ideas may be, noninterventionism will remain a marginal,
dissenting position in policymaking unless its advocates explain in detail how their alternative foreign policy would
be conducted.
A noninterventionist foreign policy would first of all require a moratorium on new foreign entanglements and commitments
for the foreseeable future. A careful reevaluation of where the U.S. has vital interests at stake would follow. There
are relatively few places where the U.S. has truly vital concerns that directly affect our security and prosperity, and
the ambition and scale of our foreign policy should reflect that.
A noninterventionist U.S. would conduct itself like a normal country without pretensions to global "leadership" or
the temptation of a proselytizing mission. This is a foreign policy more in line with what the American people will accept
and less likely to provoke violent resentment from overseas, and it is therefore more sustainable and affordable over
the long term.
When a conflict or dispute erupts somewhere, unless it directly threatens the security of America or our treaty allies,
the assumption should be that it is not the business of the U.S. government to take a leading role in resolving it.
If a government requests aid in the event of a natural disaster or humanitarian crisis (e.g., famine, disease), as
Haiti did following its devastating earthquake in 2010, the U.S. can and should lend assistance - but as a general rule
the U.S. should not seek to interfere in other nations' domestic circumstances.
Note the female chickenhawks are the most bloodthirsty, overdoing even such chauvinists as McCain.
That actually has its analogy in animal kingdom were female predators are more vicious killers then male, hunting
the prey even if they do not feel the hunger (noted especially for lions)
"So there you have it: ... completely unprepared to govern."
Paul means to imply the Obama boys and girls were better prepared? Judging by how well they did, maneuvering us into
Larry's secular stagnation, for instance, some may be forgiven to think perhaps that kind of expertise we could do without.
Lost in all the discourse is that this government of ours was designed to be operated by amateurs.
Neolib/neocon conartists call their truthful detractors unready or ignorant of unpatriotic or Russian tools. Sore
losers. Does not make war mongers right!
Summers and Krugman. See their most recent columns. I think
more of the level-headed elites are thinking/hoping that
Trump will be 4 years and out and it will all blow over.
Stop the Presses! Stop the Presses! Washington Post
Decides to Put Numbers in Context
They said it couldn't be done. It would be like the
Pope converting to Islam, but the Washington Post did the
impossible. It headlined an article * on reports that
Donald Trump wants to privatize the Corporation for Public
Broadcasting and eliminate altogether the National
Endowments for the Arts and Humanities:
"Trump reportedly wants to cut cultural programs that
make up 0.02 percent of federal spending."
This is an incredible breakthrough. The Post has
religiously followed a policy of reporting on the budget
by using really big numbers that are virtually meaningless
to the vast majority of their readers. One result is that
people, including well-educated and liberal people, tend
to grossly over-estimate the portion of the budget that
goes to things like Temporary Assistance for Needy
Families (@ 0.4 percent), foreign aid (@ 0.7 percent), and
food stamps (@1.8 percent).
The fact that it uses really big numbers rather than
express these items in some context feeds the claims of
right-wingers that we are being overtaxed to support these
programs. It also contributes to the absurd belief that
large numbers of people are not working but rather
surviving comfortably on relatively meager benefits.
It's too bad it took getting Donald Trump in the White
House to get the paper to do some serious budget
reporting.
From comments: "Saying Davos without Trump is like Hamlet without the prince implies a dignity
about the event which is rather far fetched. More like the Dark Side without Darth Vader ... trouble
is, Davos ain't fiction." "The biggest cabal of sociopathic criminals the world has ever
known."
Notable quotes:
"... This is not new. Klaus Schwab, the man who founded the World Economic Forum in the early 1970s, warned as long ago as 1996 that globalisation had entered a critical phase. "A mounting backlash against its effects, especially in the industrial democracies, is threatening a very disruptive impact on economic activity and social stability in many countries," he said. ..."
"... Schwab's warning was not heeded. There was no real attempt to make globalisation work for everyone. Communities affected by the export of jobs to countries where labour was cheaper were left to rot. The rewards of growth went disproportionately to a privileged few. Resentment quietly festered until there was a backlash. For Schwab, Brexit and Trump are a bitter blow, a repudiation of what he likes to call the spirit of Davos. ..."
"... It would be wrong, however, to imagine that business is terrified at the prospect of a Trump presidency. Boardrooms rather like the idea of a big cut in US corporation tax. They favour deregulation. They purr at plans to spend more on infrastructure. Wall Street is happy because it thinks the new president will mean stronger growth and higher corporate earnings. ..."
"... 'Policy decisions-not God, nature, or the invisible hand-exposed American manufacturing workers to direct competition with low-paid workers in the developing world. Policymakers could have exposed more highly paid workers such as doctors and lawyers to this same competition, but a bipartisan congressional consensus, and presidents of both parties, instead chose to keep them largely protected.' ..."
"... Good article by the way. Recommend others to read. Thanks. ..."
"... Stop trying to shackle every conservative to the desperate and ugly views of the few. Deplorables and their alt-right kin, are so small in number. We ought keep an eye on the Deplorables but little else ... they're politically insignificant. I wish you'd stop trying to throw the average Republican voter into the basket of bigoted, racist rednecks. It's deplorable! ..."
"... Saying Davos without Trump is like Hamlet without the prince implies a dignity about the event which is rather far fetched. More like the Dark Side without Darth Vader ... trouble is, Davos ain't fiction. ..."
"... Why would Daniel go into the lion's den? Trump is committed to stopping the excesses of the "swamp rats" most of whom are at Davos. The world will be turned on its head in 2017; it is going to be interesting to watch the demise of those at the top of the pyramid. ..."
"... What exactly is the "Spirit of Davos" then? A bunch of fat, rich elderly men and their hangers-on troughing themselves to the point of bursting on fine wines and gourmet food, while paying lip-service to the poor? ..."
"... One question for Davos might be: how are you going to resolve differences between the vast majority of people who exist as national citizens, and the multinational elite? It's not a new question. ..."
"... Multinationals, corporate and individuals, can dodge the taxes which pay for services we all rely on but especially citizens. ..."
"... Davos is not restricting attendance to high office bearers. Trump could have gone, had he wanted to, or he could have sent one of his family/staff - that's how Davos works. ..."
"... Bilderberg is by invitation, as far as I know, Davos by application and paying a high membership, plus fee. But the fact he is not represented could be a good sign if it means that the focus is on solving domestic issues as opposed to spending so much time and resources on international ones. ..."
"... My own take on the annual Davos circus is as follows:. It is a totally useless conclave and has never achieved anything tangible since its inception. ..."
"... This gives an excellent opportunity for those who hold so-called "numbered" or other secret bank accounts in the proverbially secretive Swiss banks to have their annual tete-a-tete with their bankers and carry out whatever maintenance has to be done to their bank accounts. After all, in tiny Switzerland, it is only a hop from one town to another. No one will miss you if you are not visible for a day or two. If any nosy taxman back home asks: "What was the purpose of your visit to Switzerland?", one can say with a straight face: "Oh, I was invited to be a keynote speaker at Davos to talk about the increasing income disparity in the world and on what steps to take to mitigate it."! ..."
"... I think globalisation is inhumane. Someone calculated that if labour were to follow capital flows we would see one third of the globe move around on a constant basis. One son in Cape Town a daughter in New York and a brother in Tokyo. It's not how human societies operate we are group animals like herds of cows. We need to be firmly rooted in order to build functioning and humane societies. That is the migration aspect of globalization the other aspect is the complete destruction of diverse cultures. ..."
Trump's influence can also be felt in other ways. The manner in which he won the US election,
tapping in to deep-seated anger about the unfair distribution of the spoils of economic growth,
has been noted. There is talk in Davos of the need to ensure that globalisation works for everyone.
This is not new. Klaus Schwab, the man who founded the World Economic Forum in the early 1970s,
warned as long ago as 1996 that globalisation had entered a critical phase. "A mounting backlash
against its effects, especially in the industrial democracies, is threatening a very disruptive
impact on economic activity and social stability in many countries," he said.
Schwab's warning was not heeded. There was no real attempt to make globalisation work for everyone.
Communities affected by the export of jobs to countries where labour was cheaper were left to
rot. The rewards of growth went disproportionately to a privileged few. Resentment quietly festered
until there was a backlash. For Schwab, Brexit and Trump are a bitter blow, a repudiation of what
he likes to call the spirit of Davos.
It would be wrong, however, to imagine that business is terrified at the prospect of a Trump
presidency. Boardrooms rather like the idea of a big cut in US corporation tax. They favour deregulation.
They purr at plans to spend more on infrastructure. Wall Street is happy because it thinks the
new president will mean stronger growth and higher corporate earnings.
In Trump's absence, it has been left to two senior members of the outgoing Obama administration
– his vice-president, Joe Biden, and secretary of state John Kerry – to fly the US flag.
Just
as significantly, Xi Jinping is the first Chinese premier to attend Davos and has made it clear
that, unlike Trump, he has no plans to resile from international obligations. The sense of a changing
of the guard is palpable.
missuswatanabe
It's the way globalisation has been managed for the benefit of the richest in the developed
world that has been bad for the masses rather than globalisation itself.
I thought this was an interesting, if US-centric, perspective on things:
'Policy decisions-not God, nature, or the invisible hand-exposed American manufacturing
workers to direct competition with low-paid workers in the developing world. Policymakers could
have exposed more highly paid workers such as doctors and lawyers to this same competition,
but a bipartisan congressional consensus, and presidents of both parties, instead chose to
keep them largely protected.'
Good article by the way. Recommend others to read. Thanks.
Paul Paterson -> ConBrio
Decent, hardworking Americans facing social and economic insecurity, whether on the right
or left, ought to be the focus. We need to deal with the concerns of the average citizen, however
it is they vote. Fringe groups don't serve our attention given tbe very real problems the country
faces.
Stop trying to shackle every conservative to the desperate and ugly views of the few. Deplorables
and their alt-right kin, are so small in number. We ought keep an eye on the Deplorables but
little else ... they're politically insignificant. I wish you'd stop trying to throw the average
Republican voter into the basket of bigoted, racist rednecks. It's deplorable!
What we should concern ourselves with is the very real social and economic insecurity felt
by many in red states and blue states alike. Those decent and hardworking Americans, regardless
of party, are joined in much. Deplorables aren't the average Republican voter and didn't win
Trump an election - they are too few to win much of anything.
What you keep referring to as Deplorables are decent Americans seeking change and socioeconomic
justice. You are mixing up citizens who happen to vote for the GOP withbwhite nationalist scum.
How dare you tar all conservatives with the hate monger brush!
Spunky325 -> Paul Paterson
Actually, before taking office, Trump strong-armed Ford and GM into putting more money in
their American plants, instead of moving more production to Mexico. He's also questioned cost-overruns
on Air Force One and several military projects which is causing companies to back off. I can't
think of another American president who has felt it was important to keep jobs in America or
who has questioned military spending. Good for him!
Paul Paterson -> Spunky325
You've made it quite clear "you can't think" as you've bought into the ruse. The question
is why are you so boastful about it? Trump's policies are even seen by economists on the right
as creating staggering levels of debt, creating more economic inequality and unlikely to increase
jobs.
Among many flaws, they point out tax proposals that hurt the poor and middle class to such
a degree it almost seems targeted. This is the same economic plot that has failed working Americans
repeatedly. You folks are getting caught up in a time share pitch and embracing policy that
has little chance to help the average American - however it is they vote. It isn't supposed
to but y'all are asleep at the wheel.
DrBlamm0
Saying Davos without Trump is like Hamlet without the prince implies a dignity about
the event which is rather far fetched. More like the Dark Side without Darth Vader ... trouble
is, Davos ain't fiction.
johhnybgood
Why would Daniel go into the lion's den? Trump is committed to stopping the excesses
of the "swamp rats" most of whom are at Davos. The world will be turned on its head in 2017;
it is going to be interesting to watch the demise of those at the top of the pyramid.
bilyou
What exactly is the "Spirit of Davos" then? A bunch of fat, rich elderly men and their
hangers-on troughing themselves to the point of bursting on fine wines and gourmet food, while
paying lip-service to the poor?
Maybe Trump just decided to trough it at his tower and avoid hanging out with a grotesque
bunch of insufferable see you next Tuesdays.
Ricardo_K
One question for Davos might be: how are you going to resolve differences between the
vast majority of people who exist as national citizens, and the multinational elite? It's not
a new question.
Multinationals, corporate and individuals, can dodge the taxes which pay for services we
all rely on but especially citizens.
James Patterson
Xi's statements on a trade war are completely self serving. But his assertions that he is
against protectionism and unfair trading practices is laughably hypocritical. China refuses
to let any Silicon Valley Internet company one inch past the Great Firewall. Under his direction
the CCP has imposed draconian regulations, which change by the week, on American Companies
operating in China making fair competition with local Chinese companies impossible.
The business climate in China is reprehensible. The CCP has resorted to extortion, requiring
that U.S. tech companies share their most sensitive trade secrets and IP with Chinese state
enterprises or get barred from conducting business there. Sadly, U.S. companies entered China
with high expectations and invested hundreds of millions of dollars in factories, labs and
equipment. This threat has caused many CEO's to sacrifice their company's long term viability
by transferring their most closely guarded technological advances to China or face the loss
their entire investment in China. Even so, multinationals are beginning the Chinese exodus
led by those with less financial exposure soon to be followed by companies like Apple despite
significant economic ties.
True, most people believe a 'trade war' with China means America is the defacto loser because
of dishonest reporting. The truth is that America's economic exposure to China is extremely
limited. U.S. exports to China represent only 7% of America's total exports worldwide; which
in turn accounts for less than 1% of total U.S. GDP (Wells Fargo Economics Group 2015). Most
of America's exports to China are raw materials, which can be redirected to other markets with
some effort. So even if China blocked all U.S. exports tomorrow, America's economy could absorb
the blow with minimal damage. This presents the U.S. government with a wide range of options
to deal with China's many trade infractions and unfair practices as aggressively or punitively
as it wishes.
europeangrayling
Poor Davos attendees. You feel for them at their fancy alpine Bilderberg. It's like the
meeting of the mafia organizations, if the mafia became legal and respected now and ran the
world economy. And I don't think those economic royalists at Davos miss Trump, Trump was a
small fish compared to the Davos people. They make Trump look like a dishwasher.
They are just pissed Trump came out against the TPP and those globalist 'free trade' deals,
and doesn't want more regime change maybe. They like everything else about Trump's policies,
the big tax cuts, environmental and banking deregulations galore, it's like Reagan 2.0, without
the 'free trade'. But they really want that 'free trade' though, those guys are used to getting
everything. Imagine if Bernie won, they would really hate that guy, he is also against the
TPPs and trade, and for less war, and against everything else they are used to. And that's
good, if those honorable brilliant Davos gentleman don't like you, that's not a bad thing.
soundofthesuburbs -> soundofthesuburbs
With secular stagnation we should all be asking why is economics so bad?
Keynesian redistributive capitalism went out with Margaret Thatcher and inequality has been
rising ever since (there is a clue there for the economists amongst us).
How did these new ideas rise to prominence?
"There Is No Nobel Prize in Economics
It's awarded by Sweden's central bank, foisted among the five real prizewinners, often to economists
for the 1% -- and the surviving Nobel family is strongly against it."
"The award for economics came almost 70 years later-bootstrapped to the Nobel in 1968 as a
bit of a marketing ploy to celebrate the Bank of Sweden's 300th anniversary." Yes, you read
that right: "a marketing ploy."
Today's economics rose to prominence by awarding its economists Nobel Prizes that weren't Nobel
Prizes.
No wonder it's so bad.
Global elites can use all sorts of trickery to put their ideas in place, but economics is economics
and if doesn't reflect how the economy operates it won't work.
Secular stagnation – what more evidence do we need?
HauptmannGurski -> bcarey
Davos is not restricting attendance to high office bearers. Trump could have gone, had
he wanted to, or he could have sent one of his family/staff - that's how Davos works.
Bilderberg is by invitation, as far as I know, Davos by application and paying a high membership,
plus fee. But the fact he is not represented could be a good sign if it means that the focus
is on solving domestic issues as opposed to spending so much time and resources on international
ones.
Meanwhile, alibaba's Jack Ma said in Davos that the US had spent many trillions on wars in
the last 30 years and neglected their own infrastructure. Money is for people, or some such
like, he said. Just mentioning it here, because the MSM tend to dislike running this kind of
remark.
Rajanvn -> HauptmannGurski
My own take on the annual Davos circus is as follows:. It is a totally useless conclave
and has never achieved anything tangible since its inception.
Did it, in any way, with all the stars in the financial galaxy gathered in one place, warn
against the 2008 global financial meltdown? The real reason why so many moneybags congregate
at a place which would be shunned by all who have no affinity for snow sports may be, according
to my own reckoning, may not be that innocent and may even be quite sinister.
This gives an excellent opportunity for those who hold so-called "numbered" or other
secret bank accounts in the proverbially secretive Swiss banks to have their annual tete-a-tete
with their bankers and carry out whatever maintenance has to be done to their bank accounts.
After all, in tiny Switzerland, it is only a hop from one town to another. No one will miss
you if you are not visible for a day or two. If any nosy taxman back home asks: "What was the
purpose of your visit to Switzerland?", one can say with a straight face: "Oh, I was invited
to be a keynote speaker at Davos to talk about the increasing income disparity in the world
and on what steps to take to mitigate it."!
Roland33
I think globalisation is inhumane. Someone calculated that if labour were to follow capital
flows we would see one third of the globe move around on a constant basis. One son in Cape
Town a daughter in New York and a brother in Tokyo. It's not how human societies operate we
are group animals like herds of cows. We need to be firmly rooted in order to build functioning
and humane societies. That is the migration aspect of globalization the other aspect is the
complete destruction of diverse cultures.
If everyone drives Toyota and everyone drinks Starbucks
we lose the diversity of culture that people claim they find so valuable. And replaces it with
a mono-culture of Levi jeans and McDonalds. Wealth inequality is really something that can
be reduced if you look various countries score higher in this regard than others while still
being highly successful market economies but I think money is secondary to the displacement
and alienation that come with the first two aspects of globalisation. I find it strange that
it is now the right that advocates reversing these neoliberal trends and the left that seems
to champion it. I was conscious during the 90's and anti-globalisation was clearly a left wing
issue. For whatever reason the left just leaves room for the right to harvest the grapes of
wrath they warned about many years ago. Don't blame the "populist" right ask why the left left
them the space.
If there is Fake News, is there such
a thing as Fake Economics? I thought
about this as a result of two studies
that have received considerable
publicity in the press and broadcast
media over the last few weeks. Both,
needless to say, involve Brexit. The
first are two bits of analysis by
'Change Britain', saying Brexit would
generate
400,000
new jobs
and
"boost the UK
by £450 million a week". The second
is a more substantial piece of
work
by economists
at the Centre for Business Research (CBR)
in Cambridge, which was both very
critical of the Treasury's own
analysis of the long term costs of
Brexit and came up with much smaller
estimates of its own for these costs.
Defining exactly what Fake News is
can be
difficult
, although
we can point to examples which
undoubtedly are fake, in the sense of
reporting things to be true when it
is clear they are not. Fake News
often constitutes made up facts that
are designed for a political purpose.
You could define Fake economics in a
similar way: economic analysis or
research that is obviously flawed but
whose purpose is to support a
particular policy. (Cue left wing
heterodox economists to say the whole
of mainstream economics is fake
economics.) We can equally talk about
evidence based policy and its fake
version, policy based evidence.
Let us 'ally' with all the world,
let us protect civilians, let us impose 'just peace', let us
squander the environment. No plan is too bloody, no price too
steep to prevent another 9/11. The evening news still needs
bodies of "those people". Non violence is un American.
I am not surprised the neoliberals do not post Dr King's
Vietnam Speech:
War is a ... "destructive suction tube. And you may not
know it, my friends, but it is estimated that we spend
$500,000 to kill each enemy soldier, while we spend only
fifty-three dollars for each person classified as poor, and
much of that fifty-three dollars goes for salaries to people
that are not poor."
I was informed by MLK's awareness of the truth on the ground
in 1967. That is why I protested the war in Viet Nam when
protests began early in 1968 in Richmond VA, but not the
draft. In April 1969 I had to decide whether to go to Canada
and maybe never see my family again and take my wife far from
her family as well, go to prison, or go to Viet Nam. MLK had
already been murdered and I had already lost hope in the
truth and social justice. So, I went to Viet Nam. I figured
Doctor King would understand.
And what happens
if Trump and co decide to purge intelligence agencies of individuals they consider undesirable?
I have no idea but I'm guessing they won't go flip burgers at McDonalds. (See also disbanding
the Iraqi army ca. 2003.) Will they exhibit an entrepreneurial spirit? If so then what form
will it take?
Current U-6 Unemployment Rate is 9.1% (BLS) or 13.7% (Gallup)
Current U-6 Unemployment Rate:
Unemployment U6 vs U3 For December 2016 the official Current U-6 unemployment rate was 9.1%
up from last month's 9.0% but still below the recent low of 9.3% in April and September and October's
9.2%.
On the other hand the independently produced Gallup equivalent called the "Underemployment
Rate" was up to 13.7 in December from 13.0% in November nearing the 13.8% of April. The current
differential between Gallup and BLS on supposedly the same data is 4.6%!
"The labor market remains near its sustainable, full employment level."
This is a hope not a fact
There is plenty of slack if the underemployed move into jobs and we return the 20-50 yr olds to
pre-recession participation rates.
nope,nope,nope. you don't get how employment to population ratio is calculated. it can't rise
and should not rise unless the calculations are adjusted.
Let's see:
SUPPORTING the belief that we are "close" to full employment is the U-3 measure of unemployment,
a measure with an arbitrary cut-off that excludes from the official labor force as many people
as possible who are not employed but do want jobs -- by requiring (1) an "active" search effort
only within the last four weeks, based on (2) a definition of "active" that probably does not
fit rational behavior by the unemployed who now have access to comprehensive Internet jobs databases
that did not exist 20 years ago. (It is not terribly hard to surmise the institutional interests
that are served by keeping the size of the labor force for purposes of determining the official
unemployment rate as small as possible.)
NOT SUPPORTING the belief that we are close to full employment:
(1) the lowest employment-to-population ratio in almost half a century;
(2) negating the intellectually-lazy demographic excuse that invariably gets raised to point No.
1, the lowest employment-to-population ratio in 30 years in the prime working age group (25-54),
a group that is 99.99% unaffected by the phenomenon of voluntary retirement;
(3) a U-6 (that counts many more of the unemployed in the labor force) that is still three percentage
points higher than the low point reached in 2000 (three percentage points is a lot, representing
about 7.5 million people who want jobs but are not counted in the labor force for calculating
the U-3);
(4) an aggregate growth in full-time jobs of only 9% since the relative high point in 2000 even
though the working age population has grown by 20%;
(5) average weeks unemployed among those who are counted as part of the labor force (26 weeks)
that is still more than twice as high as it was in 2000 (under 13 weeks) and is still 10 weeks
higher than it was before the Great Recession;
(6) involuntary part-time employment still 75% higher than it was in 2000, 33% higher than before
the Great Recession;
(7) whereas in 2000, the U.S. was near the top in employment rate among the OECD countries, in
2017 it is close to the bottom; most OECD countries have recovered in their employment rates since
the depths of the Great Recession, and many have moved to new levels (even supposedly sick France
has a higher employment rate in the 25-54 prime working age group than te U.S.).
With this array of negative date to overcome, it takes a lot of wise monkeys who neither speak,
hear nor see any evil to expound a belief that we are close to full employment.
RW said... January 18, 2017 at 07:05 AM
Inflation for the 4th quarter of 2016 is zero -- no change Oct through Dec -- and real interest
rates remain near the zero boundary. Republican history WRT governing particularly as it pertains
to the economy is sufficiently poor that optimism appears entirely unwarranted. I hear a lot of
investors are adjusting their portfolio allocations to favor equities over bonds. Two years ago
that was a smart move; now, not so much.
mulp said...
"All else equal, tax cuts boost household and business income."
In 2001, I was rif'd from my 100K++ job and got a $20,000 tax cut.
That tax cut did not boost my household income.
That economists have been bamboozled into thinking this way is beyond my comprehension.
Economies are zero sum. For every action, there is a reaction. Tax cuts mean revenue cuts which
means spending cuts and spending cuts mean lower household income.
Very few sectors of the economy are subject to demand price elasticity that results in higher
revenue from price reduction due to the quantity increasing explosively from a small reduction
in price.
For example, cutting the profit tax by 30% on $100 oil so gasoline falls from $4.05 to $4.00
and thus doubles the quantity of gasoline sold to boost profit taxes is an impossibility.
And cutting the tax on economic profits from restricting oil production to drive up prices
and profits can only increase tax revenue if oil production is cut further by cutting jobs so
gasoline prices can be increased from $4 to $5 to $6 per gallon.
Since Reagan, economists seem to have self lobotomized so they spout totally illogical nonsense
like "All else equal, tax cuts boost household and business income."
Might as well say "if you believe, you can fly when tinker bell hits you with pixie dust."
I know I will completely offside with my view on this, but I
think the behavioural/rational expectations debate is rather
besides the point. The much bigger issues are uncertainty and
disequilibrium.
As I noted the other day, and Johnnny Bakho refers to below,
the essence of this problem is that the thing being observed,
observes back and adapts.
The only kind of model that might
work in the long run, is a model that works even after
everybody becomes aware of it and adapts their behavior to
it.
As to the issue of uncertainty, if we assume that most
people operate with formal or informal budgets, anything that
causes them to think that their budget is about to increase
or decrease is going to change their consumption. And since
people *hate* to sustain and realise losses, the change is
going to be disproportionately intense if the uncertainty
include an possible increase to the downside.
No that isn't enough. Sure people might change their behavior
as their understanding changes. But other things are changing
as well as the behavior. In particular, technology and
available resources change.
As I said the system is
evolutionary (which means an adaptive system - which includes
behavior changes), and evolution is never easy to anticipate,
which implies uncertainty. And the existence of uncertainty
leads to persistent disequilibrium (as people adopt defensive
contingent strategies to cope with uncertainty). The big
errors in macro are all associated with the general
equilibrium paradigm and the assumptions that come with it.
Point taken re technology and resources, although behavioral
adaptation is a big part of why models fail.
I had a big
long response worked out re the biggest endemic problem with
"the assumptions that come with" macro's paradigm. Then my
iPad decided to randomly pop up a keyboard screen and when I
touched to get rid of it, deleted the entire comment!
The screaming at crapified Apple has passed now. I am zen
again.
P.S. Rational expectations IS an attempt to build in
behavioral adaptation. It is just that it turns out not very
useful (it is empirically a complete flop).
So there is 'uncertainty' and 'uncertainty.' Which kind of
uncertainty leads to a slower economy? Why wouldn't unknown
after-shocks from repealing Obamacare have current economic
repercussions?
Republicans used to claim that the roll-out
of Obamacare was causing economic uncertainty and hurting the
economy.
Seems to me that the whole foundation of 'economic
uncertainty' is rather shaky, particularly if the promised,
disruptive actions of Trump don't cause economic
repercussions.
Uncertainty (as for instance PK pointed out) can work in
different ways in the short and long terms. In the short term
it can result in hedging behavior which might actually
promote some investment. In the longer term it will push up
risk margins which will probably push growth rates down.
Humans evolved as social animals.
If rational expectations focuses on the individual and
ignores that humans act as members of groups, not
individuals, then it will not accurately predict human
behavior or outcomes.
Perhaps your comment is similar to supposing that perhaps
"equilibrium" is a not always useful concept when the modeled
surface may have multiple local maxima, minima and saddles.
Nope. I think we are trying to model a system converging to
an equilibrium that is changing faster than the system can
possibly adapt. We should forget all about equilibrium in
macro-economics. It only misdirects.
I once tried to explain this with an analogy to flying a
plane - the plane is always sinking and rising and net path
the outcome of the sum of different (constantly varying)
forces. This is quite distinct for instance, from the way
that a boat floats on the ocean (which is much closer to how
we are trying to model things today). The stochastic shocks
in economic models are like waves on the sea - where the net
effect in the end is that the average position remains the
same. I don't think the economy is like that.
The idea of equilibrium is a neoclassical fallacy. financial
sector introduced in the system systemic instability, the
positive feedback loop.
Cassidy called it "Utopian economics".
As you wrote in 2015
reason :
The problem in thinking here is the equilibrium paradigm.
Equilibrium NEVER exists. If there is a glut the price falls
below the marginal cost/revenue point, if the seller is
desperate enough it falls to zero!
Ignoring disequilibrium dynamics means this obvious (it
should be obvious) point is simply ignored. The assumption of
general equilibrium leads to the assumption of marginal
productivity driving wages. You are not worth what you
produce, you are worth precisely what somewhat else would
accept to do your job.
Julio
-> Peter K....
The main argument I've heard/read
against UBI is that getting money without working is immoral and it should be "to everyone according
to his work".
Aside from the obvious contradictions here (we accept heirs getting money without
working; and how do you measure anyone's work anyway?), I think this makes an assumption that
everything we have is what we produce.
The fact is that most of what we have is inherited collectively. Even the most successful "job
creator" types like Steve Jobs inherit a gigantic cart that they move a few inches forward.
This is not just concrete material wealth, but institutional wealth also, which we all contribute
to continually. Every person that wakes up in the morning and accepts that problems with his neighbor
should be resolved in court and not with a gun, is contributing to maintaining that inheritance.
From this perspective, a UBI that reflects your country's wealth is an inherited right.
This unstated assumption underlies many of our current debates. E.g. why does an American worker
have the right to a Us-standard wage?
"Trump's (and Putin's) Plan to Dissolve the EU and NATO."
By Josh Marshall...January 15, 2017...8:12 PM EDT
"Most people in this country, certainly most members of
the political class and especially its expression in
Washington, don't realize what Donald Trump is trying to do
in Europe and Russia. Back in December I explained that Trump
has a plan to break up the European Union. Trump and his key
advisor Steve Bannon (former Breitbart chief) believe they
can promise an advantageous trade agreement with the United
Kingdom, thus strengthening the UK's position in its
negotiations over exiting the EU. With such a deal in place
with the UK, they believe they can slice apart the EU by
offering the same model deal to individual EU states. Steve
Bannon discussed all of this at length with Business Week's
Josh Green and Josh and I discussed it in great detail in
this episode of my podcast from mid-December.
Now we have a rush of new evidence that Trump is moving
ahead with these plans.
One point that was clear in Green's discussions with
Bannon and Nigel Farage is that Trump wants to empower Farage
as its interlocutor with the United Kingdom. Given Farage's
fringe status in the UK, on its face that seems crazy. But
that is the plan. And it is a sign of how potent Farage's
guidance and advice has become for Trump's view of Europe,
the EU and Russia.
Two days ago, the United States out-going Ambassador to
the EU gave a press conference in which he opened up about
Farage's apparently guiding role in the Trump world and what
he's hearing from EU Member states.
From the The Financial Times (sub.req.) ...
... Donald Trump's transition team have called EU leaders
to ask "what country is to leave next" with a tone suggesting
the union "is falling apart" this year, according to the
outgoing US ambassador to the bloc.
... In a pugnacious parting press conference, Anthony
Gardner warned of "fringe" voices such as Nigel Farage, the
former UK Independence party leader, holding influence in
Washington over Mr Trump's team.
... Speaking days before leaving office, Mr Gardner said
it would be "lunacy" and "the height of folly" for the US to
ditch half a century of foreign policy in order to support
further EU fragmentation or become a "Brexit cheerleader" in
Brussels.
... "I was struck in various calls that were going on
between the incoming administration and the EU that the first
question is: what country is about to leave next after the
UK?" he said.
... "The perceived sense is that 2017 is the year in which
the EU is going to fall apart. And I hope that Nigel Farage
is not the only voice being listened to because that is a
fringe voice."
Today in a new interview with the Germany's Bild and the
Times of London Trump expanded on these goals dramatically.
Trump leveled a series of attacks on German Chancellor Angela
Merkel, suggesting he'd like to see her defeated for
reelection and saying she'd hurt Germany by letting "all
these illegals" into the country. Trump also called NATO
"obsolete", predicted other countries would soon leave the
EU, and characterized the EU itself as "basically a vehicle
for Germany."
Trump and Bannon are extremely hostile to Merkel and eager
to see her lose. But what is increasingly clear is that Trump
will make the break up of the EU a central administration
policy and appears to want the same for NATO.
My own view is that Trump and Bannon greatly overestimate
America's relative economic power in the world. Their view
appears to be that no European country will feel it is able
to be locked out of trade with a US-UK trade pact. An America
eager to break up the EU seems more likely to inject new life
into the union. However that may be, Trump and Bannon clearly
want to create a nativist world order based on the US, Russia
and states that want to align with them. The EU and NATO are
only obstacles to that goal."
Taking the UK out of the EU single
market would be "the greatest job-killing act in Welsh
economic history", Plaid Cymru has said.
Several of Sunday's newspapers claim Prime Minister
Theresa May will signal the move in a speech on Tuesday.
Plaid's treasury spokesman Jonathan Edwards told the BBC's
Sunday Politics Wales programme the impact on Wales would be
"devastating".
Downing Street has described the reports as "speculation".
The Carmarthen East and Dinefwr MP said pulling out of the
single market and customs union would have a "huge impact on
jobs and wages in Wales".
"The reality of what we're going to hear from [Theresa
May] on Tuesday, it's going to be the greatest job-killing
act in Welsh economic history, probably in British economic
history," he added. ...
It's a shorthand reference to one possible outcome of
negotiations between the U.K. and the EU -- the U.K. giving
up its membership in Europe's single market for goods and
services in return for gaining full control over its own
budget, its own law-making, and most importantly, its own
immigration. If that happens, British leaders will be under
pressure to quickly land a new trade pact or individual
industry-by-industry deals with the EU. Otherwise, companies
will be subjected to standard World Trade Organization rules,
which would impose tariffs on them. Banks would lose the easy
access they now enjoy to the bloc.
2. How would that differ from a softer Brexit?
A softer form would see the U.K. maintain some tariff-free
access to the single market of some 450 million consumers.
The U.K. would likely still have to contribute to the EU
budget, allow some freedom of labor movement and follow some
EU rules. That's what Norway does, as a member of the
European Economic Area but not of the EU. ...
Plaid Cymru: the Party of Wales, often referred to simply as
Plaid) is a social-democratic political party in Wales
advocating for Welsh independence from the United Kingdom
within the European Union. ... (Wikipedia)
'How can the United Kingdom possibly gain economically from
completely leaving the
European Union?'
Voters decided that the UK was paying
more to be 'in the EU' than they were
receiving (in subsidies, etc.) for
*being* members. That and they were
expected by Way Too European, welcome
foreign workers, obey crazy regulations
imposed by foreigners, yada yada yada.
(Wales, BTW, gets/got lots of aid from the EU.)
Or, is the key word 'completely'?
It was said months ago by the other major
EU members that they want Britain *out*, so
that alone should be a reason for PM May
to demand a very Soft Brexit.
After these months since the vote to leave the European
Union, where the United Kingdom had special privileges to
begin with, I still find no coherent rationale to the
decision. There is no reason to think the cost of being an EU
member was anywhere near the benefits to the UK, and evidence
to the contrary that was repeatedly promised has never been
produced.
Simon Wren-Lewis has written often on Brexit and
seems as puzzled as I am by the seeming toughness as well as
the determination of Teresa May on the leaving.
It would seem UK voters were bamboozled about
the finances. They do pay a lot *in* to be
EU members, as do other large/wealthy
members, but they also got a lot back.
They were told it was costing too much.
'they were
expected (to be) Way Too European, welcome
foreign workers, obey crazy regulations
imposed by foreigners, etc.'
Britain has always had mixed feelings
about being 'European' it seems, since
the end of their empire.
No worries. There will
still be The Five Eyes,
the 'Special Relationship'.
An exclusive club: The 5 countries that don't spy on each
other
http://to.pbs.org/2iv8mNk
via @PBS NewsHour - October 25, 2013
It was born out of American and British intelligence
collaboration in World War II, a long-private club nicknamed
the "Five Eyes." The members are five English-speaking
countries who share virtually all intelligence - and pledge
not to practice their craft on one another. A former top U.S.
counter-terrorism official called it "the inner circle of our
very closest allies, who don't need to spy on each other."
This is the club that German chancellor Angela Merkel and
French President Francois Hollande say they want to join - or
at least, win a similar "no-spying" pact with the U.S.
themselves.
It all began with a secret 7-page agreement struck in 1946
between the U.S. and the U.K., the "British-US Communication
Agreement," later renamed UKUSA. At first their focus was the
Soviet Union and its Eastern European satellites. But after
Canada joined in 1948, and Australia and New Zealand in 1956,
the "Five Eyes" was born, and it had global reach. They
pledged to share intelligence - especially the results of
electronic surveillance of communications - and not to
conduct such surveillance on each other. Whiffs of the club's
existence appeared occasionally in the press, but it wasn't
officially acknowledged and declassified until 2010, when
Britain's General Communications Headquarters, or GCHQ,
released some of the founding documents. The benefits of
membership are immense, say intelligence experts. While the
U.S. has worldwide satellite surveillance abilities, the club
benefits from each member's regional specialty, like
Australia and New Zealand's in the Far East. "We practice
intelligence burden sharing," said one former U.S. official.
"We can say, 'that's hard for us cover, so can you?'" The
ease and rapidity of information-sharing among the five
"makes it quicker to connect the dots," said another
intelligence veteran. "You can't underestimate the importance
of the common language, legal system and culture," said
another. "Above all, there is total trust." ...
Real per capita Gross Domestic Product for the United States
had by 2014 recovered from the international recession to the
level of 2007. Recovery for the United Kingdom came in 2015.
The recession and recovery obviously were socially difficult
and took an extended time.
Then too, there had been a time
of war from the US and UK extending from 2001.
An extended period of social turmoil that is difficult to
grasp or shut out.
PM May is in way over her head and does not know what she is
doing. Nor does she know what she says has meaning and
effects. She's not long for office, imo of course.
Brexit: The Story on Tariffs and Currency Fluctuations
The New York Times decided to tout the risks * that higher
tariffs could cause serious damage to industry in the UK
following Brexit:
For Mr. Magal [the CEO of an engineering company that
makes parts for the car industry], the threat of trade
tariffs is forcing him to rethink the structure of his
business. The company assembles thermostatic control units
for car manufacturers, including Jaguar Land Rover in Britain
and Daimler in Germany.
"Tariffs could add anything up to 10 percent to the price
of some of his products, an increase he can neither afford to
absorb nor pass on. 'We don't make 10 percent profit - that's
for sure,' he said, adding, 'We won't be able to increase the
price, because the customer will say, "We will buy from the
competition."' "
The problem with this story, as conveyed by Mr. Magal, is
that the British pound has already fallen by close to 10
percent against the euro since Brexit. This means that even
if the European Union places a 10 percent tariff on goods
from the UK (the highest allowable under the World Trade
Organization), his company will be in roughly the same
position as it was before Brexit. It is also worth noting
that the pound rose by roughly 10 percent against the euro
over the course of 2015. This should have seriously hurt Mr.
Magal's business in the UK if it is as sensitive to relative
prices as he claims.
[Graph]
It is likely that Brexit will be harmful to the UK economy
if it does occur, but many of the claims made before the vote
were wrong, most notably there was not an immediate
recession. It seems many of the claims being made now are
also false.
He's got a lot of options for catastrophic failure - potential conflict with China coming to the
forefront over the past week or so.* If he decides to have a go with them that will have an adverse
effect on people's ability to buy cheap shit at WalMart. It could well adversely affect their
ability to feed themselves. If that happens then I predict it will adversely affect his popularity.
Trump is a narcissist. Popularity is of foremost importance to him. That noted, I'm skeptical
that he's self-aware enough to recognize what actions he might take that people - as in essentially
all of us, not just the ones who didn't vote for him - would hate him for. If given enough rope
will he hang himself? Perhaps more significantly, how many of us will hang first?
*Next week it'll be something new. Iran's probably due for a turn in the headlines before the
winter is out. Perhaps a dust up with Putin in the spring?
If we assume that Trump is a narcissist, your analysis is all wrong.
In this case he might go not after China, but after security parasites who tried to play J.
Edgar Hoover on him. And try to destroy this scum.
libezkova -> Dan Kervick... , -1
Dan,
"Whether Trump is seen by most of the public in the end as a "legitimate" president will be
determined primarily by perceptions of his job performance."
I am not so sure. People fought to block Hillary not to elect Trump. Hillary was the chosen
candidate of the deep-state and international finance capital. They actually don't care if politician
belong to 'D' or 'R' branch of the establishment party. They are only concerned how well they
will serve the US led global neoliberal empire.
That means that Trump deserves the "Benefit of the Doubt" in evaluation of his performance
-- most people understand that he will be fighting on two fronts, with the deep state being one.
He's got a lot of options for
catastrophic failure - potential conflict with China coming to the forefront over the past
week or so.* If he decides to have a go with them that will have an adverse effect on people's
ability to buy cheap shit at WalMart.
It could well adversely affect their ability to feed
themselves. If that happens then I predict it will adversely affect his popularity.
Trump is a narcissist. Popularity is of foremost importance to him. That noted, I'm skeptical
that he's self-aware enough to recognize what actions he might take that people - as in essentially
all of us, not just the ones who didn't vote for him - would hate him for. If given enough
rope will he hang himself? Perhaps more significantly, how many of us will hang first?
*Next week it'll be something new. Iran's probably due for a turn in the headlines before the
winter is out. Perhaps a dust up with Putin in the spring?
libezkova ->
Dan Kervick...
, -1
Dan,
"Whether Trump is seen by most of the public in the end as a "legitimate" president
will be determined primarily by perceptions of his job performance."
I am not so sure. People fought to block Hillary not to elect Trump. Hillary was the chosen
candidate of the deep-state and international finance capital. They actually don't care if
politician belong to 'D' or 'R' branch of the establishment party. They are only concerned
how well they will serve the US led global neoliberal empire.
That means that Trump deserves the "Benefit of the Doubt" in evaluation of his performance
-- most people understand that he will be fighting on two fronts, with the deep state being
one.
I agree that it is strange that we have "Trump rally" and that
this rally somewhat contradicts my hypothesis (although not much
if we analyze S&P 500 by sector, for example oil industry definitely
should rally, no question about it).
You forgot a very important nuance that S&P500 as a whole
did much better that financial industry ETFs.
People made a lot of money based on this recently.
Trumps ties to de Rothschild is where you don't get it. Oh, what
did Donald do in 2008 that got him in bad trouble..............GS
left the Morgans in 2009 and finally that truth is coming out
of the closet. My guess when Democrats come back into the WH,
GS gets hurt bad bad bad.
Trump will likely do something bold militarily, very early in
his administration, most likely directed against ISIS and related
jihadi groups. He will partner with Russia in doing this.
If
it goes reasonably well, Putin will be our new best buddy in
the war on terror. The media herd, responding with the usual
America at War televised info-frenzy, will ramble en masse away
from it's current obsession with Russian spying and hacking,
and will instead be covering the war theater with embedded journalists
in flak jackets and helmets. They will be interviewing, among
others, Russian pilots and generals, newly discovered to be likable
and sturdy vodka-slugging war heroes, and our allies against
terrorists, not diabolical villains. They will regale the public
with background stories about heroic Russian deeds of the past,
including how they stopped Hitler in the snows of western Russia.
Nobody will care any more about the details of the 2016 election,
and the sad dead-enders who can't let it go.
On the other hand, if it goes poorly, this will give the public
even more opportunity to indulge conspiracy theories about false
flags, Russian and American "deep state" subversion, crony-capitalist
bribery, election meddling and the illegitimacy of the 2016 outcome,
Russian state television propaganda, left-wing fifth columnists
and traitors, etc.
So that's what I mean when I say that Trump's perceived legitimacy
will depend on how things go.
"... U.S. assistance to Chubais continued even after he was dismissed by Yeltsin as First Deputy Prime Minister in January 1996.
Chubais was placed on the HIID payroll, a show of loyalty that USAID Assistant Administrator Thomas A. Dine said he supported. ..."
"... Bill Clinton was all out after Russia, Talbot and his neocon advisors! ..."
"... The look the other way when the united Germany sent a brigade size armored set to Croatia to do Serbs. ..."
"... In Jul 1997 Poland, Hungary and Czech republic were entered in to NATO. ..."
"... Regarding Russia, Clinton was more interested in domination that development...a consistent theme in US history since its beginning.
..."
"... Instead of promoting democracy, the US rigged the 1996 election in favor of the drunkard Yeltsin. ..."
"... To hear the all the whining of Democrats and of the security state, the chickens may have come home to roost. ..."
"...Many people (myself included) have regretted that the Clinton administration has failed to seize the moment at the end
of the Cold War to create a more just international order that would be based on the rules of law, would not be dichotomic or
even Manichean one with its origin in the Cold War, and would include Russia rather than leave it out in the cold..."
[Was "Clinton administration has failed" a typo or a subtle semantic choice? Whereas "Clinton administration HAD failed" would
have past perfect tense, "has failed" is present perfect tense, suggesting the subject "Clinton administration" is the continuum
of compassionate conservatism beginning with Bill Clinton and ending with Barrack Obama. Semantics is why spelling is important.
It is also why reading is important.]
I personally have no idea what Branko Milanovic is going on about there. As far as I can tell Russia chose to be "out in the cold",
it wasn't excluded.
When the Soviet Union abruptly ceased to exist on December 25, 1991, it seemed that the West, particularly the U.S., finally
had what it had always wanted–the opportunity to introduce quick, all-encompassing economic reform that would remake Russia in
the West's own image.
By Janine Wedel, September 1, 1998.
Key Points
Since 1992, the U.S. and other donors have provided Russia billions of dollars in aid for radical economic "reforms," largely
defined as privatization of state-owned assets.
The chief beneficiary of these reforms has been a small clique of political and economic powerbrokers.
The Chubais clique typically instituted reforms through top-down presidential decree and a network of aid-funded "private"
organizations which has circumvented Russia's legislature.
When the Soviet Union abruptly ceased to exist on December 25, 1991, it seemed that the West, particularly the U.S., finally
had what it had always wanted–the opportunity to introduce quick, all-encompassing economic reform that would remake Russia in
the West's own image. To this end, the U.S., over the past seven years, has embarked upon a fairly consistent course of economic
relations with Russia. Three interrelated policies characterize this course: 1) the urging of radical economic "reforms," defined
largely as the privatization of state-owned assets, to restructure the economy; 2) the backing of a particular political-economic
group, or "clan," to do so; and 3) the provision of billions of dollars in U.S. and other Western aid, subsidized loans, and rescheduled
debt.
The United States has consistently supported President Boris Yeltsin and a Russian cadre of self-styled economic "reformers"
to conduct Western aid-funded economic reforms and negotiate economic relations with the West. U.S. support for Anatoly Chubais,
Yegor Gaidar, and the so-called "Chubais Clan" (a group of savvy operators dominated by a clique from St. Petersburg) has bolstered
the Clan's standing as Russia's chief brokers with the West and the international financial institutions. This support continues
to the present. And, the Chubais Clan–not the Russian economy as a whole–has been the chief beneficiary of economic restructuring
funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID).
Throughout the 1990s, Chubais has been a useful figure for Russian president Boris Yeltsin: beginning in November 1991 as head
of Russia's new privatization agency, the State Property Committee (GKI), then additionally as first deputy prime minister in
January 1994, and later as the lightning rod for complaints about economic policies after the communists won the Russian parliament
(Duma) election in December 1995. Chubais made a comeback in 1996 as head of Yeltsin's successful reelection campaign and was
named chief of staff for the president. In March 1997, Western support and political maneuvering catapulted him to first deputy
prime minister and minister of finance. Although fired by Yeltsin in March 1998, Chubais was reappointed in June 1998 to be Yeltsin's
special envoy in charge of Russia's relations with international lending institutions.
Working closely with Harvard University's Institute for International Development (HIID), the Chubais Clan controlled, directly
and indirectly, millions of dollars in U.S. aid through a variety of institutions and organizations set up to perform privatization,
economic-restructuring, and related activities. Between 1992 and 1997, HIID received $40.4 million from USAID in noncompetitive
grants for work in Russia and was slated to receive another $17.4 million until USAID suspended HIID's funding in May 1997, citing
evidence that HIID principals were engaged in "activities for personal gain." In addition to receiving millions in direct funding,
HIID and the Clan helped steer and coordinate USAID's $300 million economic reform portfolio, which encompassed privatization,
legal reform, development of capital markets, and the creation of a Russian securities and exchange commission.
The preferred method of economic reform was top-down presidential decree orchestrated by Chubais. Shortly after Yeltsin became
the elected president of the Russian Federation in June 1991, the Federation's Supreme Soviet passed a law mandating privatization.
After several schemes were floated, the Supreme Soviet passed a program in 1992 intended to prevent corruption, but the one Chubais
eventually implemented contained none of the safeguards and was designed to encourage the accumulation of property in a few hands.
This program opened the door to widespread corruption and was so controversial that Chubais ultimately had to rely largely on
presidential decrees, not parliamentary approval, for implementation.
Instead of encouraging market reform, this rule by decree frustrated many market reforms as well as democratic decisionmaking.
Some reforms, such as lifting price controls, could be achieved by decree. But many other reforms advocated by USAID, the World
Bank, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), including privatization and economic restructuring, depended on changes in law,
public administration, or mindsets, and required working with the full spectrum of legislative and market participants-not just
one group. The "reformers" set up still other means of bypassing democratic processes, including a network of aid-funded "private"
organizations controlled by the Chubais Clan and HIID. These organizations enabled reformers to bypass legitimate bodies of government,
such as ministries and branch ministries, and to circumvent the Duma.
Problems with Current U.S. Policy
Key Problems
U.S. officials and a team of Harvard advisers have embraced the "reformers'" dictatorial political methods, arguing they
alone are capable of instituting swift privatization and other economic restructurings.
While professing to support simply economic reform, U.S. policies have consolidated political and economic power in the
hands of one clique.
The $11.2 billion IMF bailout in July 1998 will intensify these abuses and has failed to stem Russia's financial crisis.
The privatization drive that was supposed to reap the fruits of the free market instead helped to create a system of tycoon
capitalism run for the benefit of a corrupt political oligarchy that has appropriated hundreds of millions of dollars of Western
aid and plundered Russia's wealth.
Despite evidence of corruption and lack of popular support, many Western investors and U.S. officials embraced the "reformers"
dictatorial modus operandi and viewed Chubais as the only man capable of keeping the nation heading along the troublesome road
to economic reform. As Walter Coles, a senior adviser in USAID's Office of Privatization and Economic Restructuring program, said,
"If we needed a decree, Chubais didn't have to go through the bureaucracy," adding, "There was no way that reformers could go
to the Duma for large amounts of money to move along reform."
While this approach sounds good in principle, it is less convincing in practice because it is an inherently political decision
disguised as a technical matter. As Chubais Clan member Maxim Boycko himself acknowledged in a 1995 co-authored book on privatization,
"Aid can change the political equilibrium by explicitly helping free-market reformers to defeat their opponents . Aid helps reform
not because it directly helps the economy–it is simply too small for that–but because it helps the reformers in their political
battles."
In a 1997 interview, U.S. aid coordinator to the former Soviet Union, Ambassador Richard L. Morningstar, stood by this approach:
"If we hadn't been there to provide funding to Chubais, could we have won the battle to carry out privatization? Probably not.
When you're talking about a few hundred million dollars, you're not going to change the country, but you can provide targeted
assistance to help Chubais."
U.S. assistance to Chubais continued even after he was dismissed by Yeltsin as First Deputy Prime Minister in January 1996.
Chubais was placed on the HIID payroll, a show of loyalty that USAID Assistant Administrator Thomas A. Dine said he supported.
Much of this feels familiar to Russians raised in the Communist practice of political control over economic decisions–the quintessence
of the discredited Communist system. While professing simply to support reform, U.S. policies afforded one group a comparative
advantage and allowed much aid to be used as the tool of this group. Ironically, far from helping to separate the political and
economic spheres, U.S. economic aid has instead reinforced the interdependency of these spheres. Indeed, the activities of HIID
in Russia provide some cautionary lessons on abuse of trust by supposedly disinterested foreign advisers, on U.S. arrogance, and
on the entire policy of support for a single Russian group of so-called reformers.
The July 1998 IMF bailout of Russia represents an intensification of the very policies that have produced such abuses. The
$11.2 billion aid package for 1998, (with another $7.8 billion funds over three years pledged if Russia "stays on track"), is
supposed to put an end to Russia's financial crisis. Yet only a very few certain political-economic players–not the population
at large, including workers who have gone without wages for months–stand to reap any benefits.
Among those who spoke out against the bailout was Veniamin Sokolov, head of the Chamber of Accounts of the Russian Federation,
Russia's equivalent of the U.S. General Accounting Office. Sokolov, who has investigated the destination of some previous monies
from international lending institutions and aid organizations, argued, "All loans made to Russia go to speculative financial markets
and have no effect whatsoever on the national economy." And it is the Russian people who are responsible for repaying those loans.
The very call for an IMF bailout is a commentary on the failure of previous economic aid to Russia: If aid had been effective,
why were billions in IMF loans needed to prevent the country from falling into crisis? The IMF loan and accompanying hype were
intended to revive confidence in Russia's plummeting markets and give the government time to get its financial markets under control.
However, just weeks after the IMF deal was approved, investor confidence hit a new low and the Russian government was forced to
devalue the ruble.
For its part, USAID, which provided Russia with $95.7 million in economic aid in 1997 and another $129.1 million estimated
for 1998, is requesting from Congress $225.4 million in economic aid for Russia in 1999.
Toward a New Foreign Policy
Key Recommendations
In order to support its stated objectives of fostering sound economic development and democratic institutions, the U.S.
needs to reverse its current policies and practices in Russia.
The United States must accept that the future shape of Russia must and will be determined by the Russian people and adhere
to its basic principles such as participatory democracy and the rule of law.
Washington should recognize that a healthy banking and financial system depends on a revival of production and distribution
within Russia and should use its considerable influence with the World Bank and IMF to promote policies that address these
fundamental problems.
Given the continuing socioeconomic deterioration of Russia, what should the United States do? If the U.S. government wants
to adhere to its own declared objectives and help promote in Russia sound economic development and equitable growth as well as
viable and transparent democratic institutions, it has no option than to reverse its current policies and practices.
The U.S. role in creating a system of tycoon capitalism and the current economic meltdown, coupled with military policies such
as NATO expansion, have fueled anti-American sentiment in Russia. The first thing we should do, as Joseph Stiglitz, a leading
World Bank economist, correctly suggests, is to adopt "a greater degree of humility . (and) acknowledgement of the fact that we
do not have all of the answers." Washington must also accept that the future shape of Russia society will and must be determined
by the Russian people. U.S. policy should at least try to adhere to some of the principles that it preaches, such as participatory
democracy and the rule of law or even "no taxation without representation." In line this with, the U.S. must stop its policy of
support-at-all-costs for Yeltsin and the Chubais Clan, not only in USAID targets but also in U.S. influence in IMF and World Bank
lending.
Second, the U.S. government should recognize that a healthy banking and financial system cannot arise without a revival of
production and distribution in the "real" economy. Measures which emphasize increases in tax collections and reductions in government
expenditures under the current extremely depressed conditions simply guarantee accelerated decline of the real economy and social-political
chaos. The United States should use its great influence on the IMF andWorld Bank to reduce their pressure on Russia to pursue
such suicidal policies. Not only did the IMF bailout fail to restore confidence, but the business of international aid has been
fundamentally ill-conceived. As Veniamin Sokolov warned: "Giving more loans to the Yeltsin government is comparable to giving
a drug addict a fresh supply of narcotics. Any new loans will only go to the realm of financial speculation and to prop up support
for Boris Yeltsin. Russia does not need any further such lending." In sum, further aid will go to the same corrupt niches and
is likely to make the situation worse, not better.
Third, the U.S. should embark on a broad-based policy to encourage governance and the rule of law. It is essential that the
United States discontinue support of non-inclusive organizations and the bypassing of democratic process through decree. Some
U.S. aid funds have gone for "democracy building," including strengthening and revamping the judiciary. However, these efforts
have been a low priority and have been compromised and undermined by the practice of U.S. economic advisers encouraging the Chubais
Clan to enact swift economic reforms without approval of the Duma, Russia's popularly elected legislature.
The U.S. needs to adopt a pro-democracy stance that encourages institution-building and as broad a range of democratic positions
as possible. We must cease to select specific groups or individuals as the recipients of uncritical support, which both corrupts
our "favorites" and delegitimizes them in the eyes of their fellow citizens.
Fourth, President Clinton himself, other U.S. officials, and economic advisers need to establish contact and ties with a wide
cross-section of the Russian leadership–politicians, economists, and social and political activists–and not only with Yeltsin
and his allies. How Russian elites perceive the efficacy of U.S. aid programs and policies should be a source of concern, especially
because many Russians have questioned American intentions. Although a reversal of policy will require a long and resolute process
of diplomacy, Clinton administration officials can take steps by, for example, making efforts to meet with members of the Duma
and a diversity of Russian elites.
[What the US largely did at that point was disengage aid to Russia and set them adrift.]
It is not clear what Milanovic was trying to get at, but what Janine Wedel wrote about was how I came to understand the story.
Your writing makes Milanovic seem cogent. I am talking about your organization of ideas and your semantics, as well as his. Neither
of you get much across for the effort. Wedel can actually write. Whether she is right or not, I cannot say, but it is how I have
heard the story told from the beginning.
Looks like there was a desire to completely destroy Russian economics and turn Russia into vassal state by the USA ruling elite.
So the policy was not to help, but help to destroy.
Huge profits were made by devouring Russia and all xUSSR region and plunging the population into abject poverty. But eventually
it backfired.
Wow - Anne is not going to like this suggestion that Yeltsin was a drunkard. Of course you missed the real problem - his regime
of crony capitalism was incredibly corrupt. Stiglitz covered the damage that was done in a chapter entitled "Who Lost Russia".
Something else you never bothered to read.
Yeltsin's "regime of crony capitalism was incredibly corrupt"...Clinton's regime on a grander scale...which was why Clinton wanted
to rig the Russian election for Yeltsin?
Having been is Strategic Air Command, as well as a long time in the technical side of NORAD's mission I find Milanovic's concluding
statement utterly misguided.
"But note that the Cold War had one good feature: it was "Cold".
"Civilization"* could have ended in less than the time to watch an NFL football game.
My experiences in the cold war were really great!! The nuclear forces I supported were on 'immediate' launch alert, several
rumors abide about close calls from 'sensor errors and communication black out". Any of SAC's bomb wings could have its alert
Buffs in the air in single digit minutes!
It is safer to move NATO right up to Moscow! Neocon hyperbole from Milanovic selling the US military industrial complex' marketing
plans. Look how secure and prosperous the 'west' has been under the umbrella of $28T in US war spending.
It don't cause any concerns that NATO has organized former Warsaw pact against Russia.
It will be deceptively "Cold" until it goes thermonuclear over that brigade level trip wire.
ilsm -> RC AKA Darryl, Ron... , -1
Obama on cornering Russia is an extension of Wm Clinton.
The Housing Bubble Was Not Hard to See (Except for
Economists)
Max Ehrenfreund features * a rather silly debate among
economists about explanations for the housing bubble (wrongly
described as the "financial crisis) in a Washington Post
piece. The debate is over whether subprime mortgages were
central to the bubble. Of course subprime played an important
role, but the focus of the piece is on new research showing
that most of the bad debt was on prime mortgages taken out by
people with good credit records.
I sort of thought everyone knew this, but whatever. The
more important point is that economists continue to treat the
housing bubble as something that snuck up on us in the dark
and only someone with an incredibly keen sense of the housing
market would have seen it. (I focus on the bubble and not the
financial crisis, because the latter was very much secondary
and really a distraction. By 2011 our financial system had
been pretty much fully mended, yet the weak economy
persisted. This was due to the fact that we had no source of
demand in the economy to replace the demand generated by the
housing bubble.)
Anyhow, there was nothing mysterious about the housing
bubble. We had an unprecedented run-up in real house prices
with no remotely plausible explanation in the fundamentals of
the housing market. This could be clearly seen by the fact
that rents were just following in step with the overall rate
of inflation, as they have generally for as long as we have
data. (This is nationwide, rents have outpaced inflation in
many local markets, as have house prices.) The bubble should
also have been apparent as we had record vacancy rates as
early as 2002. The vacancy rate eventually rose much higher
by the peak of the market in 2006.
It should also have been clear that the collapse of the
bubble would be bad news for the economy. Residential
construction reached a peak of 6.5 percent of GDP, about 2.5
percentage points more than normal. (When the bubble burst it
fell to less than 2.0 percent of GDP due to massive
overbuilding.) Also, the housing wealth effect led to an
enormous consumption boom as people spent based on $8
trillion in ephemeral housing wealth.
In short, there was really no excuse for economists
missing the bubble or not recognizing the fact that its
collapse would lead to a severe recession. The signs were
very visible to any competent observer.
unprecedented run-up in real house prices with no remotely
plausible explanation in the fundamentals of the housing
market. This could be clearly seen by the fact that rents
"
~~dB~
During that run-up would have been the perfect time
to shift into full reserve banking thus cutting off the
deluge of cash looking for a home, looking for homes to buy,
flip, and inflate.
All those notions like "full employment" (when employment
metrics are completely screwed) are very questionable indeed.
And role of federal reserve in enforcing neoliberal policies
is often underestimated. Greenspan was a neoliberal stooge. A
servant of Wall Street.
What Does Crowding Out Even Mean?
by J.W. Mason
Posted on January 16, 2017
Paul Krugman is taking some guff for this column where he
argues that the US economy is now at potential, or full
employment, so any shift in the federal budget toward deficit
will just crowd out private demand.
...
...In the more sophisticated textbooks, this becomes a
central bank reaction function - the central bank's actions
change from being policy choices, to a fundamental law of the
economic universe. The master parable for this story is the
1990s, when the Clinton administration came in with big plans
for stimulus, only to be slapped down by Alan Greenspan, who
warned that any increase in public spending would be offset
by a contractionary shift by the federal reserve. But once
Clinton made the walk to Canossa and embraced deficit
reduction, Greenspan's fed rewarded him with low rates,
substituting private investment in equal measure for the
foregone public spending. In the current contest, this means:
Any increase in federal borrowing will be offset one for one
by a fall in private investment - because the Fed will raise
rates enough to make it happen."
JohnH -> Fred C. Dobbs...
From the man who studied Obama before he started rising:
"the early Obama phenomenon (dating back to his campaign for
an open U.S. Senate seat in Illinois in 2003-04) was
intimately tied in with the United States' corporate and
financial ruling class. Obama was rising to power with
remarkable backing from Wall Street and K Street election
investors who were not in the business of promoting
politicians who sought to challenge the nation's dominant
domestic and imperial hierarchies and doctrines."
http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/we_were_warned_about_barack_obama_--_by_obama_20170114
Kennedy's wanted to cut taxes on the rich and corporations
and increase inequality.
"President John F. Kennedy brought
up the issue of tax reduction in his 1963 State of the Union
address. His initial plan called for a $13.5 billion tax cut
through a reduction of the top income tax rate from 91% to
65%, reduction of the bottom rate from 20% to 14%, and a
reduction in the corporate tax rate from 52% to 47%. The
first attempt at passing the tax cuts was rejected by
Congress in 1963. Conservatives revolted at giving Kennedy a
key legislative victory before the election of 1964."
LBJ helped pass his agenda. Neoliberal!
"The Office of Tax Analysis of the United States
Department of the Treasury summarized the tax changes as
follows:[2]
reduced top marginal rate (on income over $100,000,
roughly $770,000 in 2015 dollars, for individuals; and over
$180,000; roughly $1,380,000 in 2015 dollars, for heads of
households) from 91% to 70%
reduced corporate tax rate from 52% to 48%
phased-in acceleration of corporate estimated tax payments
(through 1970)
created minimum standard deduction of $300 +
$100/exemption (total $1,000 max)
"... Davos elite faces evaporating trust in "post-trith" era ..."
"... "The most shocking statistic of this whole study is that half the people who are high-income, college-educated and well-informed also believe the system doesn't work." ..."
"... Even wealthy, well educated people understand things aren't working, which begs the question. Who does think the system is working? Well, the people attending Davos, of course. These are the folks who cheer on a world in which eight people own as much as the bottom 50%. ..."
"... The mere fact that billionaire-owned media is so hostile to populism tells you everything you need to know. Behind the idea of populism is the notion of self-government, and Davos-type elitists hate this. They believe in a technocracy in which they make all the important decisions. Populism is dangerous because populism is empowering. It implies that the people ultimately have the power. ..."
"... The global financial crisis of 2008/9 and the migrant crisis of 2015/16 exposed the impotence of politicians, deepening public disillusion and pushing people towards populists who offered simple explanations and solutions. ..."
"... Populism can be dangerous, and it's certainly messy, but it's a crucial pressure release valve for any functioning free society. If you don't allow populist movements to do their thing in the short-term, you'll get far worse outcomes in the long-term. ..."
"... Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable. ..."
DAVOS MAN : "A soulless man, technocratic, nationless and cultureless, severed from reality.
The modern economics that undergirded Davos capitalism is equally soulless, a managerial capitalism
that reduces economics to mathematics and separates it from human action and human creativity."
I am not a Democrat or a Republican. I do not consider myself a libertarian, progressive, socialist,
anarchist, conservative, neoconservative or neoliberal. I'm just a 38 year old guy trying to figure
it all out. Naturally, this doesn't imply that there aren't things which I hold dear. I have a strong
belief system based on key principles. It's just that I don't think it makes sense for me to self-label
and become part of a tribe. The moment you self-label, is the moment you stop thinking for yourself.
It's also the moment you stop listening. When you think you have all the answers, anyone who doesn't
think exactly as you do on all topics is either stupid or "paid opposition." I don't subscribe
to this way of thinking.
Despite my refusal to self-identify, I am comfortable stating that I'm a firm supporter of populist
movements and appreciate the instrumental role they've played historically in free societies. The
reason I like this term is because it carries very little baggage. It doesn't mean you adhere to
a specific set of policies or solutions, but that you believe above all else that the concerns of
average citizens matter and must be reflected in government policy.
Populism reaches its political potential once such concerns become so acute they translate into
popular movements, which in turn influence the levers of power. Populism is not a bug, but is a key
feature in any democratic society. It functions as a sort of pressure relief valve for free societies.
Indeed, it allows for an adjustment and recalibration of the existing order at the exact point in
the cycle when it is needed most. In our current corrupt, unethical and depraved oligarchy, populism
is exactly what is needed to restore some balance to society. Irrespective of what you think of Donald
Trump or Bernie Sanders, both political movements were undoubtably populist in nature. This doesn't
mean that Trump govern as populist once he is sworn into power, but there's little doubt that the
energy which propelled him to the Presidency was part of a populist wave.
Trump understands this, and despite having surrounded himself with an endless stream of slimy
ex-Goldman Sachs bankers and other assorted billionaires, his campaign took the following position
with regard to Davos according to
Bloomberg :
Donald Trump won't send an official representative to the annual gathering of the world's economic
elite in Davos, taking place next week in the days leading up to his inauguration, although one of
the president-elect's advisers is slated to attend.
Former Goldman Sachs President Gary Cohn, a regular attendee in the past, told the group he would
skip 2017 after being named in December to head the National Economic Council, said people familiar
with the conference. Other top Trump appointees will also pass up the forum.
A senior member of Trump's transition team said the president-elect thought it would betray his
populist-fueled movement to have a presence at the high-powered annual gathering in the Swiss Alps.
The gathering of millionaires, billionaires, political leaders and celebrities represents the power
structure that fueled the populist anger that helped Trump win the election, said the person, who
asked for anonymity to discuss the matter.
While all of this sounds great, it's not entirely true. For example:
Hedge fund manager Anthony Scaramucci is planning to travel to Davos, though. The founder of SkyBridge
Capital and an early backer of Trump's campaign, Scaramucci was named on Thursday as an assistant
to the president.
Not that Scaramucci's presence should surprise anyone, he's the consummate banker apologist, anti-populist.
Recall what he
said last month :
"I think the cabal against the bankers is over."
This guy shouldn't be allowed within ten feet of any populist President, but Trump unfortunately
seems to have a thing for ex-Goldman Sachs bankers.
While we're on then subject, let's discuss Davos for a moment. You know, the idyllic Swiss town
where the world's most dastardly politicians, oligarchs and their fawning media servants will gather
in a technocratic orgy of panels and cocktail parties to discuss how best to manage the world's affairs
in the year ahead. Yes, that Davos.
DAVOS, Switzerland – The global economy is in better shape than it's been in years. Stock markets
are booming, oil prices are on the rise again and the risks of a rapid economic slowdown in China,
a major source of concern a year ago, have eased.
First report from Davos is in. Everything's fine.
And yet, as political leaders, CEOs and top bankers make their annual trek up the Swiss Alps to
the World Economic Forum in Davos, the mood is anything but celebratory.
Last year, the consensus here was that Trump had no chance of being elected. His victory, less
than half a year after Britain voted to leave the European Union, was a slap at the principles that
elites in Davos have long held dear, from globalization and free trade to multilateralism.
Moises Naim of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace was even more blunt: "There is a
consensus that something huge is going on, global and in many respects unprecedented. But we don't
know what the causes are, nor how to deal with it."
Thank you for your invaluable insight, Moises.
The titles of the discussion panels at the WEF, which runs from Jan. 17-20, evoke the unsettling
new landscape. Among them are "Squeezed and Angry: How to Fix the Middle Class Crisis" , "Politics
of Fear or Rebellion of the Forgotten?", "Tolerance at the Tipping Point?" and "The Post-EU Era".
Ah, a panel on how to fix the middle class. Sounds interesting until you find out who some of
the speakers are.
You really can't make this stuff up. Now back to Reuters .
Perhaps the central question in Davos, a four-day affair of panel discussions, lunches and cocktail
parties that delve into subjects as diverse as terrorism, artificial intelligence and wellness, is
whether leaders can agree on the root causes of public anger and begin to articulate a response.
This has to be a joke. The public has been yelling and screaming about all sorts of issues they
care about from both sides of the political spectrum for a while now. Whether people identify as
on the "right" or the "left" there's general consensus (at least in U.S. populist movements) of the
following: oligarchs must be reined in, rule of law must be restored, unnecessary military adventures
overseas must be stopped, and lobbyist written phony "free trade" deals must be scrapped and reversed.
There's no secret about how strongly the various domestic populist movements feel on those topics,
but the Davos set likes to pretends that these issues don't exist. They'd rather focus on Russia
or identify politics, that way they can control the narrative and then propose their own anti-populist,
technocratic solutions.
A WEF report on global risks released before Davos highlighted "diminishing public trust in institutions"
and noted that rebuilding faith in the political process and leaders would be a "difficult task".
It's not difficult at all, what we need are new leaders with new ideas, but the people at Davos
don't want to admit that either. After all, these are the types who unanimously and enthusiastically
supported the ultimate discredited insider for U.S. President, Hillary Clinton.
Moving along, let's take a look at a separate
Reuters
article previewing Davos, starting with the title.
Davos elite faces evaporating trust in "post-trith" era
Did you see what they did there? The evaporating trust in globalist elites has nothing to do with
"post-truth," but as usual, the media insists on making excuses for the rich and powerful. The above
title implies that elites lost the public truth as a result of a post-truth world, not because they
are a bunch of disconnected, lying, corrupt thieves. Like Hillary and the Democrats, they are never
to blame for anything that happens.
With that out of the way, let's take a look at some of the text:
Trust in governments, companies and the media plunged last year as ballots from the United States
to Britain to the Philippines rocked political establishments and scandals hit business.
The majority of people now believe the economic and political system is failing them, according
to the annual Edelman Trust Barometer, released on Monday ahead of the Jan. 17-20 World Economic
Forum (WEF).
"There's a sense that the system is broken," Richard Edelman, head of the communications marketing
firm that commissioned the research, told Reuters.
"The most shocking statistic of this whole study is that half the people who are high-income,
college-educated and well-informed also believe the system doesn't work."
Even wealthy, well educated people understand things aren't working, which begs the question.
Who does think the system is working? Well, the people attending Davos, of course. These are the
folks who cheer on a world in which eight people own as much as the bottom 50%.
As can be seen fro the above excerpts, one thing that's abundantly clear to almost everyone is
that the system is broken. This is exactly where populism comes in to perform its crucial function.
This is not an endorsement of Trump, but rather an endorsement of mass popular movements generally,
and a recognition that such movements are the only way true change is ever achieved. As Frederick
Douglass
noted in 1857:
This struggle may be a moral one, or it may be a physical one, and it may be both moral and physical,
but it must be a struggle. Power concedes nothing without a demand. It never did and it never will.
Find out just what any people will quietly submit to and you have found out the exact measure of
injustice and wrong which will be imposed upon them, and these will continue till they are resisted
with either words or blows, or with both. The limits of tyrants are prescribed by the endurance of
those whom they oppress. In the light of these ideas, Negroes will be hunted at the North and held
and flogged at the South so long as they submit to those devilish outrages and make no resistance,
either moral or physical. Men may not get all they pay for in this world, but they must certainly
pay for all they get. If we ever get free from the oppressions and wrongs heaped upon us, we must
pay for their removal. We must do this by labor, by suffering, by sacrifice, and if needs be, by
our lives and the lives of others .
The above is an eternal truth when it comes to human struggle. The idea that the most wealthy
and powerful individuals on earth are going to get together in a Swiss chalet and figure out how
to help the world's most vulnerable and suffering is on its face preposterous. Again, this is why
popular movements are so important. They represent the only method we know of that historically yields
tangible results. This is also why the elitists and their media minions hate populism and demonize
it every chance they get. Which is really telling, particularly when you look at the various definitions
of the word. First, here's what comes up when you type the word into Google:
pop·u·lism
/ˈpäpyəˌlizəm/
noun
support for the concerns of ordinary people.
"it is clear that your populism identifies with the folks on the bottom of the
ladder"
•the quality of appealing to or being aimed at ordinary people.
"art museums did not gain bigger audiences through a new populism"
Or how about the following from Merriam-Webster:
Definition of populist
1 :
a member of a political party claiming to represent the common people; especially, often
capitalized
:
a member of a U.S. political party formed in 1891 primarily to represent agrarian interests
and to advocate the free coinage of silver and government control of monopolies
2:
a believer in the rights, wisdom, or virtues of the common people
-
populism
play \-ˌli-zəm\ noun
-
populistic
play \ˌpä-pyə-ˈlis-tik\ adjective
Aside from the 19th century historical reference, what's not to like about any of the above? The
mere fact that billionaire-owned media is so hostile to populism tells you everything you need to
know. Behind the idea of populism is the notion of self-government, and Davos-type elitists hate
this. They believe in a technocracy in which they make all the important decisions. Populism
is dangerous because populism is empowering. It implies that the people ultimately have the power.
I think a useful exercise for readers during this Davos circus laden week is to note whenever
the word "populism" is used within mainstream media articles. From my experience, it's almost always
portrayed in an overwhelmingly negative manner. Here's just one example from the first of the two
Reuters articles mentioned above.
The global financial crisis of 2008/9 and the migrant crisis of 2015/16 exposed the impotence
of politicians, deepening public disillusion and pushing people towards populists who offered simple
explanations and solutions.
The key phrase in the above is, " populists who offered simple explanations and solutions." This
betrays an incredible sense of arrogance and contempt for regular citizens. Note that it didn't offer
a critique of a specific populist leader and his or her polices, but rather presented a sweeping
dismissal of all popular movements as "simplistic." In other words, despite the fact that the people
mingling at Davos are the exact same people who set the world on fire, they somehow remain the only
ones capable enough to fix the world. How utterly ridiculous.
The good news is that most people now plainly see the absurdity of such a worldview, and understand
that the people at Davos represent a roadblock to progress, as opposed to any sort of solution. While
I don't endorse any particular populist movement at moment, I fully recognize the need for increased
populism as a facet of American political life, particularly at this moment in time.
Populism can be dangerous, and it's certainly messy, but it's a crucial pressure release valve
for any functioning free society. If you don't allow populist movements to do their thing in the
short-term, you'll get far worse outcomes in the long-term.
In the timeless words of JFK:
Those who make peaceful revolution impossible will make violent revolution inevitable.
"... Define unprecedented. What are your standards for a "major western nation"? Any moral standard? Do they include blowing up countries, using militarized spooks with unlimited secret funding? ..."
"... In tilting with the CIA, Trump is a saint. ..."
"... The meme that Trump will "get US into war" is a Clinton loser-whiner meme! Delusional and misleading; the neocon Clinton would have done Putin first CIA fictional, regime change excuse the yellow press could spread. ..."
Just as an aside - not really economics, but I am really
worrying about what the war between the future white house
team and the CIA that seems to be brewing. I don't see good
solutions to this. It is sort of unprecedented in a major
western country. Can you think of a similar case (where the
intelligence services - and perhaps the military as well
regarded there own government head as an enemy agent)?
Define unprecedented.
What are your standards for a "major
western nation"? Any moral standard?
Do they include blowing up countries, using militarized
spooks with unlimited secret funding?
Don't worry. Be happy. Nothing can be done now.The voters
wanted someone to "shake things up"
Trump will be applying creative destruction to government
Obama failed to drive the NeoCons out of government. Trump
may do so, but the replacement might be fundamentally more
corrupt.
As with Obamacare, the idea is to destroy it and
replace it with something better.
Most revolutions find it easy to destroy and very much harder
to build
Most sane leaders recognize this difficulty and modify the
existing rather than destroy and never getting around to
replacement or find the replacement to be worse than the
existing.
Looters on the other hand love destruction. The resulting
chaos affords them more opportunity to get windfalls. Trump
will give the voters the radical change they think they want.
But Trump will use the destruction as an opportunity for
personal gain. The public will be left with a gutted
government that will need to be rebuilt before it will
function again
I don't believe in "creative destruction", I believe in
"destructive creation" which is something quite different.
But that is not the point. This is not about the government
as such, it is about the security apparatus in itself. It
could get very nasty if that ends up either totally alienated
or politicized.
If I were President, provoking an organization whose
specialty is covert operations and which has track record of
bringing about the demise of insufficiently agreeable leaders
would not be high on my to-do list.
The meme that Trump will "get US into war" is a Clinton
loser-whiner meme! Delusional and misleading; the neocon
Clinton would have done Putin first CIA fictional, regime
change excuse the yellow press could spread.
Trump is an isolationist who repeatedly said the Iraq war was
a disaster, which it was.
If the CIA is going after Trump
they're doing a bad job. The worst they could come up with is
some unverified accounts that Trump likes pee-pee parties.
Because they are already reportedly telling some of their
contacts not to trust the government with information in case
it ends up with hostile governments. Maybe using the word
"war" is misleading. Maybe "cold war" is more accurate, but
in general I mean a state of mutual distrust.
That may be exactly what Trump is counting on. Trump is a classic bully, he gets back at people (to make an example and reduce
future "resistance"). It would be very difficult for the GOP to fight with Trump publicly in the first year. Question is what
his specifics are. He may even be able to get bipartisan support and split the GOP, the way Bush did with his prescription drug
plan for seniors.
"We're going to have insurance for everybody," Mr. Trump said. "There was a philosophy in some circles that if you can't pay for
it, you don't get it. That's not going to happen with us."
In the interview, Mr. Trump provided no details about how his plan would work or what it would cost. He spoke in the same generalities
that he used to describe his health care goals during the campaign - that it would be "great health care" that left people "beautifully
covered."
For eight years, Republicans in Congress have complained about health care in America, heaping most of the blame on President
Obama. Meanwhile, they've hung out on the sidelines making doomsday predictions and cheering every stumble, but refusing to lift
a finger to actually improve our health care system.
The GOP is about to control the White House, Senate, and House. So what's the first thing on their agenda? Are they working
to bring down premiums and deductibles? Are they making fixes to expand the network of doctors and the number of plans people
can choose from? Nope. The number one priority for congressional Republicans is repealing the Affordable Care Act and breaking
up our health care system while offering zero solutions.
Their strategy? Repeal and run.
Many Massachusetts families are watching this play out, worried about what will happen - including thousands from across the
Commonwealth that I joined at Faneuil Hall on Sunday to rally in support of the ACA. Hospitals and insurers are watching too,
concerned that repealing the ACA will create chaos in the health insurance market and send costs spiraling out of control.
They are right to worry. Massachusetts has worked for years to provide high-quality, affordable health care for everyone. But
there's no magic wand we can wave to simply snap back to our old system if congressional Republicans decide to rip up the Affordable
Care Act and run away.
Health care reform in Massachusetts wasn't partisan. Democrats, Republicans, business leaders, hospitals, insurers, doctors,
and consumers all came together behind a commitment that every single person in our Commonwealth deserves access to affordable,
high-quality care. When Republican Governor Mitt Romney signed Massachusetts health reform into law in 2006, our state took huge
strides toward offering universal health care coverage and financial security to millions of Bay State residents.
That law was a major step forward. Today, more than 97 percent of Bay Staters are covered - the highest rate of any state in
the country.
But Massachusetts still has a lot to lose if the ACA is repealed. One big reason for our state's health care success is that
we took advantage of the new opportunities offered under the ACA. In addition to making care more accessible and efficient, our
state expanded Medicaid, using federal funds to help even more people. And we combined federal and state dollars to help reduce
the cost of insurance on the Health Connector.
When the ACA passed, Massachusetts already had in place some of the best consumer protections in the nation. But the ACA still
made a big difference. It strengthened protections for people in Massachusetts with pre-existing conditions, allowed for free
preventive care visits, and - for the first time in our state - banned setting lifetime caps on benefits.
If the ACA is repealed, our health care system would hang in the balance. Half a million people in the Commonwealth would risk
losing their coverage. People who now have an iron-clad guarantee that they can't be turned away due to their pre-existing conditions
or discriminated against because of their gender could lose that security. Preventive health care, community health centers, and
rural hospitals could lose crucial support. In short, the Massachusetts health care law is a big achievement and a national model,
but it also depends on the ACA and a strong partnership with the federal government.
If the cost-sharing subsidies provided by the ACA are slashed to zero, Massachusetts will have a tough time keeping down the
cost of plans on the Health Connector. The state can't make funds appear out of thin air to help families on the Medicaid expansion
if Republicans yank away support. And our ability to address the opioid crisis will be severely hampered if people lose access
to health insurance or if the federal funding provided through the Medicaid waiver disappears. Even in states with strong health
care systems - states like Massachusetts - the ACA is critical.
The current system isn't perfect - not by a long shot. There are important steps Congress could take to lower deductibles and
premiums, to expand the network of doctors people can see on their plans, and to increase the stability and predictability of
the market. We should be working together to make health care better all across the country, just like we've tried to do here
in Massachusetts.
This doesn't need to be a partisan fight. But if congressional Republicans continue to pursue repeal of the ACA with nothing
more than vague assurances that they might - someday - think up a replacement plan, the millions of Americans who believe in guaranteeing
people's access to affordable health care will fight back every step of the way.
"Providing health insurance to everyone in the country is likely to be very costly, a fact that could diminish support from fiscal
conservatives."
Herein lies the real issue. Of course we could reduce these costs by ending the doctor cartel, ending the oligopoly power of
the health insurance giants, and pushing back on Big Pharma. Alas, Speaker Ryan is not interested in any of these things.
Republican Senator Rand Paul said he's drafting legislation for a health-care insurance plan that could replace Obamacare,
including a provision to ''legalize'' the sale of inexpensive insurance policies that provide abbreviated coverage.
''That means getting rid of the Obamacare mandates on what you can buy,'' Paul said in an interview on CNN's ''State of the
Union'' on Sunday. Obamacare, which Republicans are moving to repeal, requires insurers to cover a number of procedures -- such
as preventive care and pregnancy -- that Paul said drives up the cost.
The Kentucky Republican said he'll propose helping people pay for medical bills through tax credits and health savings accounts,
which allow users to set aside money tax-free to pay for medical expenses. His bill would allow individuals and small businesses
to form associations when buying insurance, giving them more leverage, he said.
''There's no reason why someone with four employees shouldn't be able to join with hundreds and hundreds of other businesses''
to negotiate better prices, Paul said. Becoming part of larger pools would help small companies secure coverage ''that guarantees
the issue of the insurance even if you get sick.'' ...
Paul said his legislation is meant to address concern among Democrats and some Republicans that ending Obamacare would also
end health-care coverage for many of the 20 million people who acquired insurance under the law. While Republicans move ahead
with their plans to eradicate Obamacare, they have yet to outline an alternative.
''It's incredibly important that we do replacement on the same day as we do repeal,'' Paul said on CNN. ''Our goal,'' he added,
is to ''give access to the most amount of people at the least amount of cost.''
Better dead than bad: Status competition among German
fighter pilots during World War II
By Philipp Ager, Leonardo Bursztyn, and Joachim Voth
During World War II, the German military publicly
celebrated the performance of its flying aces to incentivise
their peers. This column uses newly collected data to show
that, when a former colleague got recognition, flying aces
performed much better without taking more risks, while
average pilots did only slightly better but got themselves
killed much more often. Overall the incentives may have been
detrimental, which serves as a caution to those offering
incentives to today's financial risk-takers.
Cannot reconcile
your corporatist, neoliberal, war monger losing to a TV star who suggests we should not tilt with
a nuclear power with insane doctrine defining when peace should be breeched; you say the winner is
'illegitimate' or make up relations with a nationalist leader who does not toe the 'one worlder'
line.
Trump was right to point out
that the Clintons and their allies atop the Democratic National Committee rigged the game against
Bernie.
This rigging was consistent with the neoliberal corporate Democratic Party elite's longstanding
vicious hatred of left-wing of the party and anti-plutocratic populists. They hate and viciously
fight them in the ranks of their pro-Wall Street Party. It's "Clinton Third Way Democrats"
who essentially elected Trump, because Bernie for them is more dangerous than Trump.
The Democratic party became a neoliberal party of top 10% (may be top 20%), the party of bankers
and white collar professionals. "Soft" neoliberals, to distinguish them from "hard" neoliberals
(GOP).
Under Bill Clinton the Democrats have become the party of Financial Oligarchy. At this time
corporate interests were moving to finance as their main activity and that was a very profitable
betrayal for Clintons. They were royally remunerated for that.
Clintons have positioned the Dems as puppets of financial oligarchy and got in return two
major things:
Money for the Party (and themselves)
The ability to control the large part of MSM, which was owned by the same corporations,
who were instrumental in neoliberal takeover of the USA.
When the neoliberal media have to choose between their paymasters and the truth, their paymasters
win every time. Like under Bolshevism, they are soldiers of the Party.
In any case, starting from Clinton Presidency Democratic Party turned into a party of neoliberal
DemoRats and lost any connection with the majority of the USA population.
Like Republicans they now completely depends on "divide and conquer" strategy. Essentially
they became "Republicans light."
And that's why they used "identity wedge" politics to attract African American votes and
minorities (especially woman and sexual minorities; Bill Clinton probably helped to incarcerate
more black males than any other president).
As if Spanish and African-American population as a whole have different economic interests
than white working class and white lower middle class.
So Dems became a party which represents an alliance of neoliberal establishment and minorities,
where minorities are duped again and again (as in Barack Obama "change we can believe in" bait
and switch classic). This dishonest playing of race and gender cards was a trademark of Hillary
Clinton campaign.
See
10 reasons why #DemExit is serious. Getting rid of Debbie Wasserman Schultz is not enough
by Sophia A. McClennen
"... What do you call dumping a Ukraine president? And Qaddafi, blowing up the middle east, and funding al Qaeda? Fraud/treason, both Clinton neocon connections same as Reagan, shruBush and Obama. ..."
"... "In Yugoslavia, the U.S. and NATO had long sought to cut off Serbian nationalist and Yugoslav leader Slobodan Milosevic from the international system through economic sanctions and military action. In 2000, the U.S. spent millions of dollars in aid for political parties, campaign costs and independent media. Funding and broadcast equipment provided to the media arms of the opposition were a decisive factor in electing opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica as Yugoslav president, according to Levin. "If it wouldn't have been for overt intervention Milosevic would have been very likely to have won another term," he said." ..."
"... Google Camp Bonesteel. A large NATO base funded mostly by you to keep Serbia under wraps. Enforcing the Clinton neocon "just peace". With threat of US' brand of expensive high tech mass murder. ..."
"... Democrats voting against legalizing drug imports from Canada (Hall of Shame:) Bennett, Cory Booker, Cantwell, Carper, Casey, Coons, Donnelly, Heinrich, Heitkamp, Menendez, Murray, Tester, and Warner. ..."
"... progressive neoliberals are libertarians and market idolators' lackies that want gays to get their wedding cakes from Christian bakeries. ..."
"... 30000 destroyed e-mails, denying the public access to records. How many felony counts is 30000? Read the Federal Records Act. ..."
What do you call dumping a Ukraine president? And Qaddafi,
blowing up the middle east, and funding al Qaeda?
Fraud/treason, both Clinton neocon connections same as
Reagan, shruBush and Obama.
The recondite democrat bar for traitor is very high.
As arcane as the demo-neolib definition of progressive!
The old saying what's good for the goose is good for the
gander. Well considering all that the Republican party and
leadership has dissed out for 8 years or so. Hey, they need
to be dissed right back. Trump has set the "TONE" that all is
fair as he set the rules, established the rule-book way below
the belt, loves playing in the swamp and slinging mud. He
deserves any and all that gets slung back from in and out of
the swamp, in all global directions! Unfortunately everyone
else will be the only citizens to suffer. He's just way above
the maddening crowd, and protected by all his cronies!
"In Yugoslavia, the U.S. and NATO had long sought to cut
off Serbian nationalist and Yugoslav leader Slobodan
Milosevic from the international system through economic
sanctions and military action. In 2000, the U.S. spent
millions of dollars in aid for political parties, campaign
costs and independent media. Funding and broadcast equipment
provided to the media arms of the opposition were a decisive
factor in electing opposition candidate Vojislav Kostunica as
Yugoslav president, according to Levin. "If it wouldn't have
been for overt intervention Milosevic would have been very
likely to have won another term," he said."
Google Camp Bonesteel. A large NATO base funded mostly by you
to keep Serbia under wraps. Enforcing the Clinton neocon
"just peace". With threat of US' brand of expensive high tech
mass murder.
MLK's memory is defiled by the fake liberals grabbing it
for revolting political gain.
Democrats voting against legalizing drug imports from Canada
(Hall of Shame:)
Bennett, Cory Booker, Cantwell, Carper,
Casey, Coons, Donnelly, Heinrich, Heitkamp, Menendez, Murray,
Tester, and Warner.
Presumably many, like Cantwell, are avid supporters of
'free' trade--trade that is rigged in favor of certain
special interests. Legalizing drug imports from Canada would
have hurt the special interests that fund their campaigns.
Considering that Trump and the GOP majority got millions less
votes than their democratic counterparts, one can question
the legitimacy (but not the legality) of the laws they pass -
since they would not represent the will of the people.
I start this sermon with poor pk, and those who of
unsound logic who think he is not jumped the shark poor pk.
John Lewis.......
From Dr King's Vietnam Sermon Apr 1967:
"Now, I've chosen to preach about the war in Vietnam
because I agree with Dante, that the hottest places in hell
are reserved for those who in a period of moral crisis
maintain their neutrality. There comes a time when silence
becomes betrayal."
The liberals' silence is betrayal! All the democrat
sponsored fake liberal agendas around this holiday remain
damnably silent about the evil that is Clinton/Obama war to
end "unjust peace".
Here is my comment for poor pk, Lewis and the whining
do-over tools:
Last week US drones killed 3 supposed terrorists in Yemen,
they were supposed to be al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).
No charges, no jury, no judge.
AQAP is related to the guys Obama is funding to take down
Assad and put Syria in ruinous hate filled group of jihadis
like run amok in Libya.
So silent on deadly evil; but so boisterous about affronts
to gay people wanting nice cakes!
Lewis and his crooked neoliberal ilk have been milking Dr.
King for 50 years!
Hey, if it's politics every pathology from torture to
assassination to bombing civilians is approved. If you did it
as a person, you would be immediately incarcerated. This
nation state worship, or religious worship in many parts of
the world, is infused with pathology. It's in our DNA
apparently. We are over killers par excellence. Only rats are
as good. I'm betting on the rats.
"Politicians were mostly people who'd had too little morals
and ethics to stay lawyers."
George R. R. Martin
ilsm :
, -1
poor democrats!
Cannot reconcile your corporatist,
neoliberal, war monger losing to a TV star who suggests we
should not tilt with a nuclear power with insane doctrine
defining when peace should be breeched; you say the winner is
'illegitimate' or make up relations with a nationalist leader
who does not toe the 'one worlder' line.
I blogged yesterday * on how "Davos Man," the world's
super-rich, is very supportive of all sorts of protectionist
measures in spite of his reputation as a free trader. I
pointed out that Davos Man is fond of items like ever
stronger and longer patent and copyright protections and
measures that protect doctors, dentists, and other highly
paid professionals. Davos Man only dislikes protectionism
when it might benefit folks like autoworkers or textile
workers.
I thought it was worth pointing out that the protectionism
supported by the Davos set is real money. The chart below
shows the additional amount we pay for prescription drugs
each year as a result of patent and related protections, the
additional amount we pay for physicians as a result of
excluding qualified foreign doctors, and the total annual
wage income ** for the bottom 50 percent of wage earners. (I
added 5 percent to the 2015 wage numbers to incorporate wage
growth in the last year.)
[Graph *** ]
As can be seen, the extra amount we pay for doctors as a
result of excluding foreign competition is roughly one-third
of the total wage bill for the bottom half of all wage
earners. The extra amount we pay for drugs as a result of
patent protection is roughly twenty percent more than the
total wage bill for the bottom half of wage earners. Of
course we would have to pay for the research through another
mechanism, but we also pay higher prices for medical
equipment, software, and a wide variety of other products as
a result of patent and copyright protections. In other words,
there is real money here.
Davos Man isn't interested in nickel and dime
protectionism, he wants to rake in the big bucks. And, the
whole time he will run around saying he is a free trader (and
get most of the media to believe him).
The New York Times had an article * on the annual meeting
of the world's super-rich at Davos, Switzerland. It refers to
Davos Man as "an economic elite who built unheard-of fortunes
on the seemingly high-minded notions of free trade, low taxes
and low regulation that they championed." While "Davos Man"
may like to be described this way, it is not an accurate
description.
Davos Man is actually totally supportive of protectionism
that redistributes income upward. In particular Davos Man
supports stronger and longer patent and copyright protection.
These forms of protection raise the price of protected items
by factors of tens or hundreds, making them equivalent to
tariffs of several thousand percent or even tens of thousands
of percent. In the case of prescription drugs these
protections force us to spend more than $430 billion a year
(2.3 percent of GDP) on drugs that would likely cost one
tenth of this amount if they were sold in a free market.
(Yes, we need alternative mechanisms to finance the
development of new drugs. These are discussed in my free book
"Rigged: How Globalization and the Rules of the Modern
Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer." ** )
Davos Man is also just fine with protectionist barriers
that raise the cost of physicians services as well as pay of
other highly educated professionals. For example, Davos Man
has never been known to object to the ban on foreign doctors
practicing in the United States unless they complete a U.S.
residency program or the ban on foreign dentists who did not
complete a U.S. dental school (or recently a Canadian
school). Davos Man is only bothered by protectionist barriers
that raise the incomes of autoworkers, textile workers, or
other non-college educated workers.
Davos Man is also fine with government regulations that
reduce the bargaining power of ordinary workers. For example,
Davos Man has not objected to central bank rules that target
low inflation even at the cost of raising unemployment. Nor
has Davos Man objected to meaningless caps on budget
deficits, like those in the European Union, that have kept
millions of workers from getting jobs.
Davos Man also strongly supported the bank bailouts in
which governments provided trillions of dollars in loans and
guarantees to the world's largest banks in order to protect
them from the market. This kept too big to fail banks in
business and protected the huge salaries received by their
top executives.
In short, Davos Man has no particular interest in a free
market or unregulated economic system. They only object to
interventions that reduce their income. Of course, Davos Man
is happy to have the New York Times and other news outlets
describe him as a devotee of the free market, as opposed to
simply getting incredibly rich.
Vijay Prashad, that is an Apples-Oranges comparison with no validity, not to mention sans geopolitical
reality and treaty obligations to USA Allies in Europe.
Actually 4000 troop is a fraction of a brigade. It is what some call a tripwire, in case of
war a forlorn hope! When that forlorn hope is snuffed the nukes come out!
"Doctors in the United States get paid on average more than
$250,000 a year,"
I am sure that this is a right estimate.
Certain specialties probably yes (dentists, cardiologist,
gastroenterologists, neurosurgeons, etc), but family doctors,
probably no.
The Congressional defeat, insured by Democrats, of the proposal by Bernie Sanders to allow the
import of drugs from Canada to lower drug prices in the United States.
'
This is only the beginning of Democrats' appeasement of Trump and Republicans...it will be stunning
to watch how much damage Republicans can do during Trump's first 90 days with only a slim majority
in the Senate. During the first 90 days under Obama, who had a true electoral mandate and big
majorities in both houses, Democrats basically sat on their hands, blaming Republicans for their
unwillingness to do much for the American people.
Ever noticed that marketing costs are 30% of revenue? This is a by product of the monopoly power
in this sector. Dean Baker has often noted we could have the government do the R&D and then have
real competition in manufacturing.
You forgot that those researchers often produce useless or even dangerous drags, which are
inferior to existing. Looks as scams practiced with hypertension drugs.
This rat race for blockbuster drugs is the same as corruption in financial industry.
Actually the industry profile is very relevant but goes in a different direction - if US firms
were compelled to charge market (not monopoly) prices, we would better compete with foreign firms.
Any excuse to charge sky high prices for drugs that don't cost that much to manufacture? If these
monopoly profits were not so high, we would buy more drugs and employ more people.
Do you think we would really buy materially more drugs if prices were lower? Particularly enough
more, at those (30-50%?) lower prices, to generate the funds to employ more people?
(If that actually generated at much or more funds, it would seem like the pharma companies,
seeking to make as much money as possible, would have already set prices at that lower per unit
level.)
In any case, that seems like a LOT more drugs.
Perhaps Anne has data on the number of scripts per person in the US vs OECD.
There are lots of poor people who don't take drugs because they can't afford them. This will become
especially true if the Republican repeal Obamacare.
The point of course is wildly exploiting ordinary people in need of healthcare in every possible
way, or a reflection of what we have come to. Returning now to the market...
It can also work when the consumer is only indirectly in
the loop. I was reading a presentation on Skilled Nursing
Care yesterday, where they were pointing out hospitasl that
were getting more selective in discharging to only highly
rated SNFs. (The people making this point were the highly
rated SNFs.)
Would I do price shopping for cardiac surgery? No. MRI for
a troublesome shoulder? Yes, I've actually done that, and
seen 5X or more cost deltas from facilities on the insurance
"approved" list.
"... But the application is broader. There are two types of economics: positive economics vs. normative economics. Basically, " here is what people do" vs. "here is what people *should* do." The better economics gets at explaining what people actually do, the more people can adapt their behavior based on the accuracy of economics. ..."
"... "War is regarded as nothing but the continuation of state policy with other means." ..."
The Stumbling and Mumbling article raises a fundamental point
about economics: forecasting *must* inevitably be generally
wrong.
The reason is that you are predicting human
behavior, but the humans under observation also get to
observe back! They can and will adapt their behavior based on
your forecasts. For example, let's say that everyone knows
that I am a 100% accurate economic prognosticator. I forecast
that while the economy is doing well now, one year from now
there will be a recession.
What do you as a producer or consumer do? Since you know I
am 100% accurate, you alter your behavior because you know a
recession is coming in one year. Result: the recession comes
now! Because you curtailed production or consumption in
anticipation of the recession you knew was coming.
But the application is broader. There are two types of
economics: positive economics vs. normative economics.
Basically, " here is what people do" vs. "here is what people
*should* do." The better economics gets at explaining what
people actually do, the more people can adapt their behavior
based on the accuracy of economics.
Result: the better
positive and normative economics get, the more positive and
to some extent* normative economics must fail!
(*I think there are some normative concepts that would be
correct even if everyone knew about them and acted on them,
e.g., efficiently allocating time.)
P.S.: As an aside and a real-world example, I am just
finishing a dense 800 page tome on Napoleon. It has been a
godsend since the election! As a young general, Napoleon was
brilliant, adopting and using the newest and novel tactics
and formations advocated by military scholars against his
geriatric and monarchically-connected opponents.
But over time his adversaries, especially Tsar Alexander,
learned. They appointed more military generals and
strategists on merit, adopted Napoleon's reforms, and in a
strategy that the Chinese and Japanese (and Karl Rove) would
have approved, actually used his strengths against him.
Humans are remarkably cunning chimpanzees. When enough of
them learn a strategy, it loses its effectiveness.
'Napoleon: A Life,' by Andrew Roberts
By DUNCAN KELLY
On July 22, 1789, a week after the storming of the
Bastille in Paris, Napoleon Bonaparte wrote to his older
brother, Joseph, that there was nothing much to worry about.
"Calm will return. In a month." His timing was off, but
perhaps he took the misjudgment to heart because he spent the
rest of his life trying to bring glory and order to France by
building a new sort of empire. By the time he was crowned
emperor on Dec. 2, 1804, he could say, "I am the Revolution."
It was, according to the historian Andrew Roberts's epically
scaled new biography, "Napoleon: A Life," both the ultimate
triumph of the self-made man, an outsider from Corsica who
rose to the apex of French political life, and simultaneously
a "defining moment of the Enlightenment," fixing the "best"
of the French Revolution through his legal, educational and
administrative reforms. Such broad contours get at what
Napoleon meant by saying to his literary hero Goethe at a
meeting in Erfurt, "Politics is fate."
Napoleon didn't mean fatalism by this, rather that
political action is unavoidable if you want personal and
national glory. It requires a mastery of fortune, and a
willingness to be ruthless when necessary. If this sounds
Machiavellian, that's because it is - Machiavelli's arguments
about politics informed Napoleon's self-consciousness,
whether in appraising fortune as a woman or a river to be
tamed and harnessed, or assuming that in politics it is
better to be feared than loved. Such views went hand in hand
with the grand visions of politics outlined in the ancient
histories and biographies Napoleon revered as a young man.
"Bloodletting is among the ingredients of political medicine"
was Napoleon's cool if brutal reminder of an ever-present
item on his exhausting schedule.
His strategy always included dashing off thousands of
letters and plans, in a personal regime calling for little
sleep, much haste and a penchant for being read to while
taking baths so as not to waste even a minute. He
compartmentalized ruthlessly, changing tack between lobbying
for more shoes and brandy for the army at one minute, to
directing the personal lives of his siblings or writing love
letters to the notorious Josephine at another; here ensuring
extravagant financial "contributions" from those whom he had
vanquished, there discussing the booty to send back to Paris,
particularly from the extraordinary expedition in Egypt where
his "savants had missed nothing." The personal and the
political ran alongside each other in his mind.
Yet when his longtime collaborator but fair-weather
political friend, the diplomat Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand,
suggested that Napoleon try to make those he conquered learn
to love France, Napoleon replied that this was an
irrelevance. "Aimer: I don't really know what this means when
applied to politics," he said. Still, if grand strategy and
national interest lay behind foreign affairs, there were
nevertheless personal rules of conduct to uphold. Talleyrand
was a party to Napoleon's strategy since supporting his coup
d'état against the French Directory in 1799. That was O.K.
And by short-selling securities he made millions for himself.
But he was called out by Napoleon and dismissed as vice grand
elector when found facing both ways politically at a crucial
moment.
Napoleon understood those temptations because he was also
flexible enough to tilt toward the winning side, regularly
supporting any form of local religion that could help him
militarily. Nonetheless, Roberts's Napoleon is a soldier,
statesman and "bona fide intellectual," who rode his luck for
longer than most intellectuals in politics ever do....
Duncan Kelly teaches political thought at the University of
Cambridge.
Basil Halperin on the logic behind NGDP targeting
by Scott Sumner
Jan. 13, 2017
James Alexander directed me to a recent post by Basil
Halperin, which is one of the best blog posts that I have
read in years. (I was actually sent this material before
Christmas, but it sort of fell between the cracks.)
Basil starts off discussing a program for distributing
excess food production from manufacturers to food banks.
The problem was one of distributed versus centralized
knowledge. While Feeding America had very good knowledge of
poverty rates around the country, and thus could measure need
in different areas, it was not as good at dealing with
idiosyncratic local issues.
Food banks in Idaho don't need a truckload of potatoes,
for example, and Feeding America might fail to take this into
account. Or maybe the Chicago regional food bank just this
week received a large direct donation of peanut butter from a
local food drive, and then Feeding America comes along and
says that it has two tons of peanut butter that it is sending
to Chicago.
To an economist, this problem screams of the Hayekian
knowledge problem. Even a benevolent central planner will be
hard-pressed to efficiently allocate resources in a society
since it is simply too difficult for a centralized system to
collect information on all local variation in needs,
preferences, and abilities.
One option would simply be to arbitrarily distribute the
food according to some sort of central planning criterion.
But there is a better way:
This knowledge problem leads to option two: market
capitalism. Unlike poorly informed central planners, the
decentralized price system – i.e., the free market – can
(often but not always) do an extremely good job of
aggregating local information to efficiently allocate scarce
resources. This result is known as the First Welfare Theorem.
Such a system was created for Feeding America with the
help of four Chicago Booth economists in 2005. Instead of
centralized allocation, food banks were given fake money –
with needier food banks being given more – and allowed to bid
for different types of food in online auctions. Prices are
thus determined by supply and demand. . . .
By all accounts, the system has worked brilliantly. Food
banks are happier with their allocations; donations have gone
up as donors have more confidence that their donations will
actually be used. Chalk one up for economic theory.
Basil points out that while that solves one problem, there
is still the issue of determining "monetary policy", i.e. how
much fake money should be distributed each day?
Here's the problem for Feeding America when thinking about
optimal monetary policy. Feeding America wants to ensure that
changes in prices are informative for food banks when they
bid. In the words of one of the Booth economists who helped
design the system:
"Suppose I am a small food bank; I really want a truckload
of cereal. I haven't bid on cereal for, like, a year and a
half, so I'm not really sure I should be paying for it. But
what you can do on the website, you basically click a link
and when you click that link it says: This is what the
history of prices is for cereal over the last 5 years. And
what we wanted to do is set up a system whereby by observing
that history of prices, it gave you a reasonable instinct for
what you should be bidding."
That is, food banks face information frictions: individual
food banks are not completely aware of economic conditions
and only occasionally update their knowledge of the state of
the world. This is because obtaining such information is
time-consuming and costly.
Relating this to our question of optimal monetary policy
for the food bank economy: How should the fake money supply
be set, taking into consideration this friction?
Obviously, if Feeding America were to randomly double the
supply of (fake) money, then all prices would double, and
this would be confusing for food banks. A food bank might go
online to bid for peanut butter, see that the price has
doubled, and mistakenly think that demand specifically for
peanut butter has surged.
This "monetary misperception" would distort decision
making: the food bank wants peanut butter, but might bid for
a cheaper good like chicken noodle soup, thinking that peanut
butter is really scarce at the moment.
Clearly, random variation in the money supply is not a
good idea. More generally, how should Feeding America set the
money supply?
One natural idea is to copy what real-world central banks
do: target inflation.
Basil then explains why NGDP targeting is likely to be
superior to inflation targeting, using a Lucas-type monetary
misperceptions model.
III. Monetary misperceptions
I demonstrate the following argument rigorously in a formal
mathematical model in a paper, "Monetary Misperceptions:
Optimal Monetary Policy under Incomplete Information," using
a microfounded Lucas Islands model. The intuition for why
inflation targeting is problematic is as follows.
Suppose the total quantity of all donations doubles.
You're a food bank and go to bid on cheerios, and find
that there are twice as many boxes of cheerios available
today as yesterday. You're going to want to bid at a price
something like half as much as yesterday.
Every other food bank looking at every other item will
have the same thought. Aggregate inflation thus would be
something like -50%, as all prices would drop by half.
As a result, under inflation targeting, the money supply
would simultaneously have to double to keep inflation at
zero. But this would be confusing: Seeing the quantity of
cheerios double but the price remain the same, you won't be
able to tell if the price has remained the same because
(a) The central bank has doubled the money supply
or
(b) Demand specifically for cheerios has jumped up quite a
bit
It's a signal extraction problem, and rationally you're
going to put some weight on both of these possibilities.
However, only the first possibility actually occurred.
This problem leads to all sorts of monetary
misperceptions, as money supply growth creates confusions,
hence the title of my paper.
Inflation targeting, in this case, is very suboptimal.
Price level variation provides useful information to agents.
IV. Optimal monetary policy
As I work out formally in the paper, optimal policy is
instead something close to a nominal income (NGDP) target.
Under log utility, it is exactly a nominal income target.
(I've written about nominal income targeting before more
critically here.)
. . . Feeding America, by the way, does not target
constant inflation. They instead target "zero inflation for a
given good if demand and supply conditions are unchanged."
This alternative is a move in the direction of a nominal
income target.
V. Real-world macroeconomic implications
I want to claim that the information frictions facing food
banks also apply to the real economy, and as a result, the
Federal Reserve and other central banks should consider
adopting a nominal income target. Let me tell a story to
illustrate the point.
Consider the owner of an isolated bakery. Suppose one day,
all of the customers seen by the baker spend twice as much
money as the customers from the day before.
The baker has two options. She can interpret this
increased demand as customers having come to appreciate the
superior quality of her baked goods, and thus increase her
production to match the new demand. Alternatively, she could
interpret this increased spending as evidence that there is
simply more money in the economy as a whole, and that she
should merely increase her prices proportionally to account
for inflation.
Economic agents confounding these two effects is the
source of economic booms and busts, according to this model.
This is exactly analogous to the problem faced by food banks
trying to decide how much to bid at auction.
To the extent that these frictions are quantitatively
important in the real world, central banks like the Fed and
ECB should consider moving away from their inflation
targeting regimes and toward something like a nominal income
target, as Feeding America has.
The paper he links to contains a rigorous mathematical
model that shows the advantages of NGDP targeting. He doesn't
claim NGDP targeting is always optimal, but any paper that
did would actually be less persuasive, as it would mean the
model was explicitly constructed to generate that result.
Instead the result flows naturally from the Lucas-style
archipelago model, where each trader is on their own little
island observing local demand conditions before aggregate (NGDP
conditions). This is the sort of approach I used in my first
NGDP futures targeting paper, where futures markets
aggregated all of this local demand (i.e. velocity)
information. However Basil's paper is light years ahead of
where I was in 1989.
I can't recommend him highly enough. I'm told he recently
got a BA from Chicago, which suggests he may be another
Soltas, Wang or Rognlie, one of those people who makes a mark
at a very young age. He seems to combine George Selgin-type
economic intuition (even citing a lovely Selgin metaphor at
the end of his post) with the sort of highly technical skills
required in modern macroeconomics.
Commenters often ask (taunt?) me with the question, "Where
is the rigorous model for market monetarism". I don't believe
any single model can incorporate all of the insights from any
half decent school of thought, but Basil's model certainly
provides the sort of rigorous explanation of NGDP targeting
that people seem to demand.
Basil has lots of other excellent posts, and over the next
few weeks and months I will have more posts responding to
some of the points he makes (which to his credit, include
criticism of NGDP targeting–he's no ideologue.)
Jerry Brown -> Peter K....
, -1
I like Scott Sumner's blog The Money Illusion and think his
idea of NGDP level targeting is a good idea as far as
monetary policy. I don't share his supreme confidence in the
ability of monetary policy by itself to solve problems in
deficient aggregate demand. But he is always interesting to
read.
"... Rising inequality, an unfair political system, and a government that spoke for the people while acting for the elites after the 2008 financial crisis created ideal conditions for a candidate like Donald Trump. American leaders who have mismanaged the process of globalization have only themselves to blame for the coming era. ..."
"... Obama/Reid/Pelosi set the table for Trump... ..."
..."Rising inequality, an unfair political
system, and a government that spoke for the people while acting for the elites after the 2008 financial
crisis created ideal conditions for a candidate like Donald Trump. American leaders who have mismanaged
the process of globalization have only themselves to blame for the coming era."
You may be right...but here's
a more damning quote directly from Stiglitz' piece:
"US President Barack Obama saved not
only the banks, but also the bankers, shareholders, and bondholders. His economic-policy team
of Wall Street insiders broke the rules of capitalism to save the elite, confirming millions
of Americans' suspicion that the system is, as Trump would say, "rigged."
She is
right. You were dishonest or mistaken about attributing it to Stiglitz. The authors don't write those little summation paragraphs at the beginning.
Depending on what the GOP does, we could get austerity rather
than fiscal expansion.
Tax cuts for the wealthy are not
much stimulus. The wealthy invest globally and could invest
to offshore jobs rather than in the US. Or they could drive a
bubble as what happened to the GWBush tax cuts.
Combine those with repeal of the ACA Medicaid and Medicare
cuts, there would be less money available to pay for
services.
Deporting immigrants reduces both demand and workers in the
economy.
Privatizing government functions typically results in grift
or worse and that money may go to the Caymans or elsewhere
offshore.
The Trump plan is to build infrastructure using tax breaks
How much of this happens remains to be see.
Ryan has a budget that cuts taxes and butchers spending =
austerity
"So investors betting on a big infrastructure push are almost
surely deluding themselves."
Since the election Sanjait has
suggested investors weren't betting on a big infrastructure
push. He has explained his thinking a couple of time but I
still don't understand it. It doesn't add up.
The quick resort to name calling, rather
than correcting someone with facts, is getting out of hand,
and is very counterproductive if one really wishes to make a
case.
In response to people looking for a Trump pivot at various
points over the last two years, biographar Michael D'Antonio
has said many times that there's no other 'there' to pivot
to.
In Pennsylvania he roused folks by talking vaguely
about bringing coal back, here in Oregon he changed nouns and
rolled out the logging version.
How do you come to any meaningful decision about what he's
going to do? I wouldn't bet on follow through on any policies
(well, except maybe The Wall) that don't benefit Trump
himself.
I think all of these investors are thinking that Republicans
control the White House and Congress so good things are
coming for investors and rent-extraction, like tax cuts.
In
a way they're right, but in a way they're just being
ideological.
The Democrats have tried *so hard* to show how good they
can be for Wall Street, and Wall Street doesn't really care.
The was my original comment about how it's kind of funny.
And Sanjait of course chimes in to say "no, no, there is
no investor euphoria, it's an illusion."
And now PGL tries to change the subject about how the
euphoria is fading. Maybe but NOBODY ELSE has commented on it
yet. NOBODY.
But the people here in comments don't really care one way
or the other, about what's right and wrong. They just want a
civil discussion.
"And now PGL tries to change the subject about how the
euphoria is fading."
Look at my post. I never even used the
term "euphoria". I talked about anticipated fiscal policy and
interest rates.
So once again PeterK flat out lied about what someone said
to smear them. This is the insult. Calling out this pathetic
liar is just putting the record straight.
No as long as this troll lies this way - we will call hin
on his lies.
The problem with Democrats and some of these prog neolib
pundits is they want to equate Wall Street and Main Street.
They want us all to be friends (so Wall Street can continue
screwing Main Street). They're whores and sellouts.
It's
why Bernie's primary campaign caught fire and why neolibs
like Krugman attacked him regularly.
I honestly don't think bringing coal back was of much
interest to people in Pennsylvania. It's ridiculous to focus
on that, because most people in PA (that I know) kind of
rolled their eyes at that one... including the people who
liked the other stuff.
From an historical perspective stock market prices are
remarkably high, even though interest rates are low.
From a
10 year perspective looking forward, with an earnings price
ratio of 3.55 and a dividend yield of 1.98, an investor can
anticipate an average yearly return of 5.53% on stocks
assuming the current price earnings ratio lasts the decade.
The 10 year Treasury bond yield is 2.39 so the risk
premium for stocks is currently 5.53 - 2.39 = 3.14.
The 3 month Treasury interest rate is at 0.52%, the 2 year
Treasury rate is 1.19%, the 5 year rate is 1.89%, while the
10 year is 2.39%.
The Vanguard Aa rated short-term investment grade bond
fund, with a maturity of 3.1 years and a duration of 2.6
years, has a yield of 1.87%. The Vanguard Aa rated
intermediate-term investment grade bond fund, with a maturity
of 6.0 years and a duration of 5.5 years, is yielding 2.67%.
The Vanguard Aa rated long-term investment grade bond fund,
with a maturity of 22.8 years and a duration of 13.2 years,
is yielding 3.85%. *
The Vanguard Ba rated high yield corporate bond fund, with
a maturity of 5.8 years and a duration of 4.5 years, is
yielding 4.89%.
The Vanguard unrated convertible corporate bond fund, with
an indefinite maturity and a duration of 4.1 years, is
yielding 1.85%.
The Vanguard A rated high yield tax exempt bond fund, with
a maturity of 17.1 years and a duration of 7.1 years, is
yielding 3.30%.
The Vanguard Aa rated intermediate-term tax exempt bond
fund, with a maturity of 8.5 years and a duration of 5.1
years, is yielding 2.16%.
The Vanguard Government National Mortgage Association bond
fund, with a maturity of 7.0 years and a duration of 4.8
years, is yielding 2.01%.
The Vanguard inflation protected Treasury bond fund, with
a maturity of 8.6 years and a duration of 8.1 years, is
yielding 0.06%.
* Vanguard yields are after cost. Federal Funds rates are
no more than 0.75%.
"While it's hard to know how much of the market's
optimism reflects expected policy changes under the new
administration, the rise in equities, interest rates, and the
dollar since the election is precisely the configuration that
standard macroeconomics would predict in anticipation of a
Trump-backed fiscal expansion. (A similar pattern occurred in
the early Reagan years, which was dominated by tax cuts,
increased military spending, higher deficits, and rate
increases by the Federal Reserve.)"
Krugman:
"So investors betting on a big infrastructure push are
almost surely deluding themselves."
PGL suggests the "optimism" is fading. Has anybody else
anywhere echoed his sentiments?
Oh it is not euphoria now - it is optimism. Is that your
new term for interest rates. You have been lying about what I
have said. I never used "euphoria" or "optimism" in anything
I wrote.
So yea - you lie 24/7. What to make it so obvious.
Trump Team Questions Value of Aid to Africa
By HELENE COOPER
The list of Africa-related queries from the transition
staff suggests an American retreat from development and
humanitarian goals.
[ Setting aside the sole question of domestic
infrastructure formation or emphasis, there is every reason
to think that the coming administration will not value and
foster international infrastructure formation. At a time when
infrastructure formation in developing countries is both
sorely necessary and showing special promise, I find this
worrisome indeed. ]
Paul Krugman's essay is all too convincing and worrisome in
that there is reason to think that domestic infrastructure
formation from the New Deal through the Eisenhower
administration was the basis for the fastest years of
American productivity growth in the last century.
Productivity growth for all our information technology
applications has slowed markedly since about 2005, and I
would argue a neglect of infrastructure formation is an
important or even essential factor.
The Most Technologically Progressive Decade of the Century
By Alexander J. Field
Abstract
There is now an emerging consensus that over the course of
U.S. economic history, multifactor productivity grew fastest
over a broad plateau between 1905 and 1966, and within that
period, in the two decades following 1929. This paper argues
that the bulk of the achieved productivity levels in 1948 had
already been attained before full scale war mobilization in
1942. It was not principally the war that laid the foundation
for postwar prosperity. It was technological progress across
a broad frontier of the American economy during the 1930s.
Interestingly and importantly, China has been emphasizing
infrastructure development in developing countries from Asia
to Africa. The response from Ethiopia to South Africa to
Nigeria to Laos, Cambodia and Pakistan... has been markedly
encouraging though little noted in American media.
If they can turn it into a way that GOP campaign contributors
can rip of the public it may get support in congress. Handing
over repairs on public bridges to private companies, followed
by big fat tolls - may be a go if Wall Street can get in on
it.
Exactly, it ends up costing a lot more. Its just that the
cost is on the utility bill rather than on your taxes. The
politicians don't want to commit suicide by raising taxes.
Then after decades of neglect of the infrastructure they face
a crisis.
All aboard for Africa's heartland – on a train built in
China
Inaugural journey on 750km line from Djibouti and the Suez
Canal to landlocked Ethiopian capital
By Laura Zhou
Silk Road route back in business as China train rolls into
London
After 16 days and 7,456 miles, the locomotive's arrival
heralds the dawn of a new commercial era
By Tracy McVeigh - Guardian
When the East Wind locomotive rumbles into east London
this week, it will be at the head of 34 carriages full of
socks, bags and wallets for London's tourist souvenir shops,
as well as the dust and grime accumulated through eight
countries and 7,456 miles.
The train will be the first to make the 16-day journey
from Yiwu in west China to Britain, reviving the ancient
trading Silk Road route and shunting in a new era of UK-China
relations.
Due to arrive on Wednesday, the train will have passed
through China, Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany,
Belgium and France before crossing under the Channel and
arriving in the east end of London at Barking rail freight
terminal.
Faster than a ship, cheaper than a plane, the East Wind
won't be quite the same train that left Yiwu on 2 January.
Differing rail gauges in countries along the route mean a
single locomotive cannot travel the whole route. But the
journey still marks a new departure in the 21st-century
global economy. The new train, which will start to run weekly
while demand is tested, is part of China's One Belt, One Road
policy – designed to open up the old Silk Road routes and
bring new trade opportunities, said Prof Magnus Marsden, an
anthropologist at Sussex University's School of Global
Studies, who has been studying the trading patterns in Yiwu.
China Railway has already begun rail services to 14 European
cities, including Madrid and Hamburg. As a result, Yiwu's
markets are now loaded with hams, cheese and wine from Spain
and German beer is available on every corner....
If he doesn't
push an infrastructure program, Dems should propose a
gigantic one themselves, and point out to the country that
Mr. Make-America-Great-Again is a small-thinking fraud.
Here's one. It's called the "Rebuild America Act".
When the Dems held the White House and Congress they put
forward another stimulus bill after the ARRA that never hit
the floor. The effect of that obstruction on the electorate
was zero.
Now somehow you think some bs that has no chance in the
world to get out of committee means something.
This is why progressives keep losing. There are too many
who live in an alternate universe.
Some republicans voting with the democrats might be enough...
but remember that republicans will do anything to stop the
Democrats from winning back the White House, which means they
will need to give in to Trump on a few key promises where
they disagree, or else ditch Trump to get Pence
"... But, if it seemed clear that there would be political consequences, their form and timing were far less obvious. Why did the backlash in the US come just when the economy seemed to be on the mend, rather than earlier? And why did it manifest itself in a lurch to the right? After all, it was the Republicans who had blocked assistance to those losing their jobs as a result of the globalization they pushed assiduously. It was the Republicans who, in 26 states, refused to allow the expansion of Medicaid, thereby denying health insurance to those at the bottom. And why was the victor somebody who made his living from taking advantage of others, openly admitted not paying his fair share of taxes, and made tax avoidance a point of pride? ..."
"... Donald Trump grasped the spirit of the time: things weren't going well, and many voters wanted change. Now they will get it: there will be no business as usual. ..."
NEW YORK – Every January, I try to craft a forecast for
the coming year. Economic forecasting is notoriously
difficult; but, notwithstanding the truth expressed in Harry
Truman's request for a one-armed economist (who wouldn't be
able to say "on the other hand"), my record has been
credible.
In recent years, I correctly foresaw that, in the absence
of stronger fiscal stimulus (which was not forthcoming in
either Europe or the United States), recovery from the Great
Recession of 2008 would be slow. In making these forecasts, I
have relied more on analysis of underlying economic forces
than on complex econometric models.
For example, at the beginning of 2016, it seemed clear
that the deficiencies of global aggregate demand that have
been manifest for the last several years were unlikely to
change dramatically. Thus, I thought that forecasters of a
stronger recovery were looking at the world through
rose-tinted glasses. Economic developments unfolded much as I
anticipated.
Not so the political events of 2016. I had been writing
for years that unless growing inequality – especially in the
US, but also in many countries throughout the world – was
addressed, there would be political consequences. But
inequality continued to worsen – with striking data showing
that average life expectancy in the US was on the decline.
These results were foreshadowed by a study last year, by
Anne Case and Angus Deaton, which showed that life expectancy
was on the decline for large segments of the population –
including America's so-called angry men of the Rust Belt.
But, with the incomes of the bottom 90% having stagnated
for close to a third of a century (and declining for a
significant proportion), the health data simply confirmed
that things were not going well for very large swaths of the
country. And while America might be at the extreme of this
trend, things were little better elsewhere.
But, if it seemed clear that there would be political
consequences, their form and timing were far less obvious.
Why did the backlash in the US come just when the economy
seemed to be on the mend, rather than earlier? And why did it
manifest itself in a lurch to the right? After all, it was
the Republicans who had blocked assistance to those losing
their jobs as a result of the globalization they pushed
assiduously. It was the Republicans who, in 26 states,
refused to allow the expansion of Medicaid, thereby denying
health insurance to those at the bottom. And why was the
victor somebody who made his living from taking advantage of
others, openly admitted not paying his fair share of taxes,
and made tax avoidance a point of pride?
Donald Trump grasped the spirit of the time: things
weren't going well, and many voters wanted change. Now they
will get it: there will be no business as usual.
But seldom
has there been more uncertainty. Which policies Trump will
pursue remains unknown, to say nothing of which will succeed
or what the consequences will be.
Trump seems hell-bent on having a trade war....
Joseph E. Stiglitz, recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in
Economic Sciences in 2001 and the John Bates Clark Medal in
1979, is University Professor at Columbia University.
"... "It seems the initial market euphoria over a Trump fiscal stimulus has started to fade as we watch the clowns that Trump is appointing as his key economic advisors." ..."
"It seems the initial market euphoria
over a Trump fiscal stimulus has started to fade as we watch
the clowns that Trump is appointing as his key economic
advisors."
Sanjait was saying there was no initial euphoria, just a
small rise in financial equities. (which somehow translated
also into higher bond prices and dollar appreciation.)
I agree with Krugman and the financial press that there
was. No sign that it's fading yet though (Not that Krugman
said there was.)
Of course nobody here in comments cares one way or the
other.
1.THE RULE OF THE MARKET. Liberating "free" enterprise or
private enterprise from any bonds imposed by the government
(the state) no matter how much social damage this causes.
Greater openness to international trade and investment, as in
NAFTA. Reduce wages by de-unionizing workers and eliminating
workers' rights that had been won over many years of
struggle. No more price controls. All in all, total freedom
of movement for capital, goods and services. To convince us
this is good for us, they say "an unregulated market is the
best way to increase economic growth, which will ultimately
benefit everyone." It's like Reagan's "supply-side" and
"trickle-down" economics -- but somehow the wealth didn't
trickle down very much.
2.CUTTING PUBLIC EXPENDITURE FOR SOCIAL SERVICES like
education and health care. REDUCING THE SAFETY-NET FOR THE
POOR, and even maintenance of roads, bridges, water supply --
again in the name of reducing government's role. Of course,
they don't oppose government subsidies and tax benefits for
business.
3.DEREGULATION. Reduce government regulation of everything
that could diminish profits, including protecting the
environment and safety on the job.
4.PRIVATIZATION. Sell state-owned enterprises, goods and
services to private investors. This includes banks, key
industries, railroads, toll highways, electricity, schools,
hospitals and even fresh water. Although usually done in the
name of greater efficiency, which is often needed,
privatization has mainly had the effect of concentrating
wealth even more in a few hands and making the public pay
even more for its needs.
5.ELIMINATING THE CONCEPT OF "THE PUBLIC GOOD" or "COMMUNITY"
and replacing it with "individual responsibility." Pressuring
the poorest people in a society to find solutions to their
lack of health care, education and social security all by
themselves -- then blaming them, if they fail, as "lazy."
== end of quote ==
The term can be abused (and is abused a s negative
nickname) and here I agree with you (compare abuse of "neolib"
with the abuse of the term "racist" :-)
But still it remains a term with a distinctive meaning,
pretty much widely agreed upon and uncontroversial
definition.
The real question here is: what if a person does not
subscribe to all postulates, but still views the market as
"the best thing since sliced bread". I think yes. Your
mileage may vary.
"... Napoleon didn't mean fatalism by this, rather that political action is unavoidable if you want personal and national glory. It requires a mastery of fortune, and a willingness to be ruthless when necessary. If this sounds Machiavellian, that's because it is - Machiavelli's arguments about politics informed Napoleon's self-consciousness, whether in appraising fortune as a woman or a river to be tamed and harnessed, or assuming that in politics it is better to be feared than loved. Such views went hand in hand with the grand visions of politics outlined in the ancient histories and biographies Napoleon revered as a young man. "Bloodletting is among the ingredients of political medicine" was Napoleon's cool if brutal reminder of an ever-present item on his exhausting schedule. ..."
"... Those chickenhawk neocons like Hillary, Kagan or Michael Leeden do not want to die, they want that somebody else died for them implementing their crazy imperial ambitions. ..."
"... The primary aim of official propaganda is to generate an "official narrative" that can be mindlessly repeated by the ruling classes and those who support and identify with them. This official narrative does not have to make sense, or to stand up to any sort of serious scrutiny. Its factualness is not the point. The point is to draw a Maginot line, a defensive ideological boundary, between "the truth" as defined by the ruling classes and any other "truth" that contradicts their narrative. ..."
On July 22, 1789, a week after the storming of the Bastille in Paris, Napoleon Bonaparte wrote
to his older brother, Joseph, that there was nothing much to worry about. "Calm will return. In a
month." His timing was off, but perhaps he took the misjudgment to heart because he spent the rest
of his life trying to bring glory and order to France by building a new sort of empire. By the time
he was crowned emperor on Dec. 2, 1804, he could say, "I am the Revolution." It was, according to
the historian Andrew Roberts's epically scaled new biography, "Napoleon: A Life," both the ultimate
triumph of the self-made man, an outsider from Corsica who rose to the apex of French political life,
and simultaneously a "defining moment of the Enlightenment," fixing the "best" of the French Revolution
through his legal, educational and administrative reforms. Such broad contours get at what Napoleon
meant by saying to his literary hero Goethe at a meeting in Erfurt, "Politics is fate."
Napoleon didn't mean fatalism by this, rather that political action is unavoidable if you
want personal and national glory. It requires a mastery of fortune, and a willingness to be ruthless
when necessary. If this sounds Machiavellian, that's because it is - Machiavelli's arguments about
politics informed Napoleon's self-consciousness, whether in appraising fortune as a woman or a river
to be tamed and harnessed, or assuming that in politics it is better to be feared than loved. Such
views went hand in hand with the grand visions of politics outlined in the ancient histories and
biographies Napoleon revered as a young man. "Bloodletting is among the ingredients of political
medicine" was Napoleon's cool if brutal reminder of an ever-present item on his exhausting schedule.
His strategy always included dashing off thousands of letters and plans, in a personal regime
calling for little sleep, much haste and a penchant for being read to while taking baths so as not
to waste even a minute. He compartmentalized ruthlessly, changing tack between lobbying for more
shoes and brandy for the army at one minute, to directing the personal lives of his siblings or writing
love letters to the notorious Josephine at another; here ensuring extravagant financial "contributions"
from those whom he had vanquished, there discussing the booty to send back to Paris, particularly
from the extraordinary expedition in Egypt where his "savants had missed nothing." The personal and
the political ran alongside each other in his mind.
Yet when his longtime collaborator but fair-weather political friend, the diplomat Charles-Maurice
de Talleyrand, suggested that Napoleon try to make those he conquered learn to love France, Napoleon
replied that this was an irrelevance. "Aimer: I don't really know what this means when applied to
politics," he said. Still, if grand strategy and national interest lay behind foreign affairs, there
were nevertheless personal rules of conduct to uphold. Talleyrand was a party to Napoleon's strategy
since supporting his coup d'état against the French Directory in 1799. That was O.K. And by short-selling
securities he made millions for himself. But he was called out by Napoleon and dismissed as vice
grand elector when found facing both ways politically at a crucial moment.
Napoleon understood those temptations because he was also flexible enough to tilt toward the winning
side, regularly supporting any form of local religion that could help him militarily. Nonetheless,
Roberts's Napoleon is a soldier, statesman and "bona fide intellectual," who rode his luck for longer
than most intellectuals in politics ever do....
Duncan Kelly teaches political thought at the University of Cambridge.
" "Bloodletting is among the ingredients of political medicine" "
Those chickenhawk neocons like Hillary, Kagan or Michael Leeden do not want to die, they
want that somebody else died for them implementing their crazy imperial ambitions.
The primary aim of official propaganda is to generate an "official narrative" that can
be mindlessly repeated by the ruling classes and those who support and identify with them.
This official narrative does not have to make sense, or to stand up to any sort of serious
scrutiny. Its factualness is not the point. The point is to draw a Maginot line, a defensive
ideological boundary, between "the truth" as defined by the ruling classes and any other "truth"
that contradicts their narrative.
The current "Russian hacking" hysteria is a perfect example of how this works. No one aside
from total morons actually believes this official narrative (the substance of which is beyond
ridiculous), not even the stooges selling it to us. This, however, is not a problem, because
it isn't intended to be believed it is intended to be accepted and repeated, more or less like
religious dogma.
ilsm -> libezkova...
US press is a propaganda mill.
The DNC is not the "US election", therefore how can hacking the
DNC be a serious issue?
Then they give front page to Mr. Lewis who says a deceitful line that 'Russians made Clinton
lose'. Nothing in the hack changed my observation that she is a war monger in wall st's employ.
They print and broadcast the lines fed. Lines which have no basis in truth.
If you think of what is said you have to conclude that criminals should have privacy and those
digging perpetrate harm when the "leaks" exposed truths the public is not supposed to know.
If the average American could think and get a few facts they would conclude there is no democracy
because the things they know are not true.
During the 1976 investigation of the CIA by the Senate Intelligence Committee, chaired by
Senator Frank Church, the dimensions of the Agency's involvement with the press became apparent
to several members of the panel, as well as to two or three investigators on the staff.
...Thus, contrary to the notion that the CIA insidiously infiltrated the journalistic community,
there is ample evidence that America's leading publishers and news executives allowed themselves
and their organizations to become handmaidens to the intelligence services. "Let's not pick
on some poor reporters, for God's sake," William Colby exclaimed at one point to the Church
committee's investigators. "Let's go to the managements. They were witting." In all, about
twenty‑five news organizations including those listed at the beginning of this article) provided
cover for the Agency.
== end of quote ==
This is not about DNC hacking. Hacking is just a smokescreen. The real game is to prevent any
change in the USA foreign policy, especially in Syria and toward Russia. That's why they tried
this "soft coup" against Trump. That's why NYT, CNN, etc published all those dirty stories.
Also many CIA bureaucrats do not want to be sent from bloated Washington headquarters to distant
lands to do what they are supposed to do -- collect intelligence, not to engage is domestic politics
(and they were fully engaged on the side of Hillary).
ilsm -> kthomas..., January 14, 2017 at 03:30 PM
Preparation and objects make one lucky.
Americans are remiss in ignoring Napoleon, many of his students, etc.
libezkova is worth reading.
The problem with HRC, Kagan or Leeden is they thought a new American century was strategy,
then silled a lot of snake oil.
ilsm said... , January 14, 2017 at 06:08 AM
The past year we have had two war parties tilt for the White House. Neither has strategy, both
morally bankrupt!
Rev Martin Luther King at Riverside Church in NYC Apr 1967.
RC AKA Darryl, Ron -> ilsm... , January 14, 2017 at 01:03 PM
[Awesome, Dude. THX. Should be mandatory reading for everyone that votes or expresses political
opinion in the US. As inappropriate as it is to cherry pick anything from this marvelous speech/sermon
out of context to its entirety, this one tidbit really stood out:] "... There's something strangely
inconsistent about a nation and a press that will praise you when you say, Be non-violent toward
Jim Clark, but will curse and damn you when you say, "Be non-violent toward little brown Vietnamese
children. There's something wrong with that press!..."
ilsm -> RC AKA Darryl, Ron... , January 14, 2017 at 03:34 PM
I wonder had I read it as a young man would I have the courage to accept it the way I do now
after I have made all the wrong decisions.
He opened my eyes nearly as much as my friend Bob who had been an SF advisor at the province
level and confirmed everything written about the corruption and plundering of the RVN government.
MLK was incredibly aware of the truth on the ground in Vietnam.
There are 3 ways we could reduce what we pay for health care:
(1) Ending the oligopoly power of the health insurance companies;
(2) Ending the doctor cartel;
(3) Reducing the monopoly power of Big Pharma.
Alas, the Republicans have no intention in doing any of this. So when they tell people they
want to lower their costs, they are talking to rich people. The cost to the rest of us will go
up if they have their way.
Observer -> pgl... , -1
From what I read, and recall from data Anne has posted a number of times, pharma costs are about
10% of total health care costs, and run about 2X EU average, or Canada, if we adopt that as a
reference baseline. If we cut it in half, that would reduce our costs about 5%.
Doctors fees (physicians and clinical services in this reference) are about 20%. I think you
have mentioned before we pay about 2X typical EU wages. So if we cut that in half, it reduces
our costs about 10%.
Taken together, that's ~ 15% reduction. Not nothing, but in a few years of cost growth we are
back to current cost levels.
Do you see that differently?
I don't have offhand figures for what insurance overhead runs. I think reducing that is probably
the best argument for single payer, although comparisons to medicare overhead seem suspect (I'd
expect much lower overhead percentages when much of your costs you are processing are $40K end
of life hospital events vs. routine GP visits.) So one might zero out the profit, and reduce costs
by having one IT/billing system. What's the scale of the opportunity here - another 15%?
"... Building a massive castle in the desert or providing tax cuts to millionaires may increase aggregate demand, but they would also be wasteful and problematic ways to accomplish that goal." ..."
"... The Longer Depression: But now the wheel of history has turned once again. We have a Second Gilded Age. ..."
"... Summers's core fear is that the global economy-or, at least, the North Atlantic chunk of it-will be stuck for a generation or more in a situation in which, if investors have realistically expectations, then even if central banks reduce interest rates to accommodate those expectations and even if governments follow sensible but not extravagant fiscal policies, private financial markets will still fail to support a level of investment demand compatible with full employment. ..."
"... Thus economic policymakers will find themselves either hoping that investors form unrealistic expectations-prelude to a bubble-or coping with chronic ultralow interest rates and the associated risks of stubbornly elevated unemployment. ..."
"I wrote my speech on what I called the "new view" of
fiscal policy for a conference of Europeans. I was trying to
summarize an interesting wave of recent research and also to
continue our work of persuading Euro-area economies of the
still urgent and important task of using fiscal policy,
either spending increases or tax cuts, to support aggregate
demand. (Their unemployment rate is stuck around 10 percent
while ours is below 5 percent.)"
Germany's is more like 4 percent.
"In this case we have neither an urgent need for stimulus
of this magnitude nor would it have all of the same positive
side effects, like crowding in private investment. We also
have a medium- and long-run fiscal challenge that we would
not want to exacerbate. Finally, priorities matter. Building
a massive castle in the desert or providing tax cuts to
millionaires may increase aggregate demand, but they would
also be wasteful and problematic ways to accomplish that
goal."
So he agrees with Yellen and Krugman. No need for fiscal
expansion. Sounds like the usual neoliberals lies which have
led the Democrats to electoral oblivion.
In my view, the current debate about "secular stagnation"
started by Larry Summers is best thought of as the third
coming of John A. Hobson.
...
The Wheel Has Turned Again
The Longer Depression: But now the wheel of history
has turned once again. We have a Second Gilded Age.
We have had what looks to have been either the second-largest
or the largest adverse financial business-cycle shock in
history. We have had an economic downturn followed by a very
slow recovery that has produced and will produce a cumulative
output gap vis-a-vis potential that will rival and may well
exceed the Great Depression itself as a multiple of the
economy's productive potential.
But it is not just what people call "the Great Recession"
and should call "the Longer Depression". It is the long,
steady decline in safe interest rates at all maturities since
1990: the decline in short-term safe real interest rates from
4% to -1.5%, and the decline in long-term safe real interest
rates from 5% to 1%.
B. Larry's Core Worry:
And so now we have Larry
Summers (2013), reacting to the collapse of the short-term
safe nominal Wicksellian "neutral" rate of interest
consistent with full employment and with central banks'
ability to hit their inflation targets.
We are handicapped because there is not one place in which
Larry has developed his argument: it is evolving. But the
debate Larry has started seems to me, as I wrote, "the most
important policy-relevant debate in economics since John
Maynard Keynes's debate with himself in the 1930s."
Summers's core fear is that the global economy-or, at
least, the North Atlantic chunk of it-will be stuck for a
generation or more in a situation in which, if investors have
realistically expectations, then even if central banks reduce
interest rates to accommodate those expectations and even if
governments follow sensible but not extravagant fiscal
policies, private financial markets will still fail to
support a level of investment demand compatible with full
employment.
Thus economic policymakers will find themselves either
hoping that investors form unrealistic expectations-prelude
to a bubble-or coping with chronic ultralow interest rates
and the associated risks of stubbornly elevated unemployment.
...
C. Seeking Not a Cure But Palliatives:
For Summers,
secular stagnation does not have one simple cause but is the
concatenation of a number of different structural shocks un-
or only loosely-connected with each other in their origin
that have reinforced each other in their effects pushing the
short-term safe nominal Wicksellian "neutral" rate down below
zero. But even though there is no one root cause, there are
two effective palliatives to neutralize or moderate the
effects.
Thus Summers calls for two major policy initiatives:
Larger and much more aggressive progressive tax and
transfer (and predistribution?) policies to end the Second
Gilded Age.
A major shift to an investment-centered expansionary
fiscal policy as the major component of what somebody or
other once called "a somewhat comprehensive socialisation of
investment [as] the only means of securing an approximation
to full employment not exclud[ing] all manner of compromises
and of devices by which public authority will cooperate with
private initiative "
I think he has a very, very strong case here.
D. Achieving Potential:
The standard diss of Larry
was that even though his promise was immense-he was
brilliant, provocative, creative, and so willing to think
outside-the-box that you sometimes wondered whether he knew
where the box was or even if there was a box-there was no
great substantive contribution but only a bunch of footnotes
to lines of inquiry that really "belonged" to others.
1.
Inflation phobia (note it is the NOMINAL interest rate that
has fallen below zero)
2. The policy mix which tries to rely for monetary expansion
almost exclusively on private lending.
3. International capital flows which weaken the leverage of
national economic policy.
4. Rent extraction (for natural resources and for
intellectual property) which are a significant part of 3
above (and of the increasing inequality).
5. Competitive tax policy (i.e. lack of international
co-ordination)
"It's the same sort
of thing conservatives think they've caught Paul Krugman
doing. Back in August, when it looked like Hillary Clinton
was going to win the White House, he wrote that it was still
"Time to Borrow." But now that Donald Trump is getting ready
for the most elegant, most tremendous inauguration ever,
Krugman has said that "Deficits Matter Again." Now, this
might seem like a pretty straightforward gotcha, but only if
you don't read past the headlines. There's actually no
contradiction here.......
It isn't hypocritical to point out that borrowing money to
invest in infrastructure makes more sense than borrowing
money to cut taxes for the rich, especially when borrowing
money isn't the reduced-price lunch it was before. Nor is it
intellectually dishonest to say that what was good stimulus
before is still good policy today. That, after all, is what
made it good stimulus in the first place.
In the end, though, the only thing more predictable than
people changing their minds out of political expediency is
accusing other people of doing so."
Fixing our infrastructure is a good idea now and an even
better idea a few years back when Krugman and other sane
people called for it on a weekly basis. Problem is that the
way to do it is different now because the labor markets have
become tighter and the Fed is increasing interest rates.
All the concerns that GOPsters used to deny Obama's
request for infrastructure spending were pure BS back when
you had negative real interest rates and a large pool of
unemployed people. Now they are of concern and need to be
clearly evaluated. Massive government investments at this
time could compete with the private sector for capital and
labor - driving up the price of both. If the cost was covered
by deficit spending the total cost would not just have to be
calculated with a higher interest cost on the loans for the
project but also as the cost of higher interest rates on our
total national debt. That may be somewhat mitigated by not
putting the cost on the national credit card, but instead
taxing rich people more (to cover the full cost of
infrastructure). The main difference being that you either
invest by getting an interest bearing loan from rich people
(selling them treasuries) or get "a loan" with no interest
and no payments. Main economic difference being that the
later is cheeper.
"... But I think it's also important to note that Friedman was all wrong about Japan - and that you can argue that he was also wrong about the Great Depression, for the same reason. ..."
"... For what Friedman argued, both for Japan in the 1990s and America in the 1930s, was that all the central bank needed to do was more - push out those reserves into the banking system. This would raise the money supply, and a higher money supply would have the usual effects. ..."
"... But the Bank of Japan tried that - and found that pushing more reserves into the banks didn't even lead to rapid growth in the money supply, let alone end the problem of deflation." ..."
"... A central bank can make matters worse by tightening. But they cannot fight fiscal austerity at the ZLB. Fiscal and monetary policy need to be pushing in the same direction. ..."
"... "when data contradicts theory, physics throws out the theory. Econ throws out the data.") ..."
"... Friedman largely believed his own BS, and turned a blind eye to most moral arguments. This, to me, is the heartless neoliberal that some our fellow posters are so oft to mention. ..."
What Friedman got wrong is not
including current income.
People with high income spend a fraction of that income and save the rest.
Their demand is met, so the additional income mostly goes to savings.
People with low income spend everything and still have unmet demands
Additional income for them will go to meet those unmet demands (like fixing a toothache or
replacing bald tires).
Friedman was biased against fiscal intervention in an economy and
sought evidence to argue against such policies
Our model for funding infrastructure is broken. Federal funding means project that are most
needed by cities can be overlooked while projects that would destroy cities are funded. Federal
infrastructure funding destroyed city neighborhoods leaving the neighboring areas degraded.
Meanwhile, necessary projects such as a new subway tunnel from NJ to Manhattan are blocked
by States who are ok if the city fails and growth moves to their side of the river. Money should
go directly to the cities. Infrastructure should be build to serve the people who live, walk
and work there, not to allow cars to drive through at high speeds as the engineers propose.
This infrastructure harms cities and becomes a future tax liability that cannot be met if the
built infrastructure it encourages is not valuable enough to support maintenance. We are discovering
that unlike our cities where structures can increase in value, strip malls decline in value,
often to worthlessness. Road building is increasingly mechanized and provides less employment
per project than in the past. Projects such as replacing leaking water pipes require more labor.
"Friedman was biased against
fiscal intervention in an economy and sought evidence to argue against such policies". You
get this from his permanent income hypothesis??? It is the same basic idea as Modligiani's
life cycle model who certainly was not biased against fiscal interventions.
No, from the whole of Friedman's
work.
Finding alternatives to fiscal tools for economic management is a central theme.
His permanent income hypothesis was used as a bludgeon against fiscal policy use.
Economic management by monetary policy has hit its limits.
"Economic management by monetary
policy has hit its limits."
If you want to bring up his entire body of work - you might note
what he said about Japan's period at the zero lower bound. Same thing Krugman has said. So
are you going to tell us Krugman opposed the use of fiscal stimulus?
"I had some graphics problems with my previous post on this subject - it turns out that what
looks like a permanent link at the BOJ website isn't; plus I had some more to say about the
subject.
So: David Wessel quoted what Milton Friedman said about Japan in 1998, and interpreted
it as meaning that Friedman would favor quantitative easing now. I think that's right. And
just to be clear, I also favor QE - largely because it might help some, and seems to be just
about the only policy lever still available in the face of political reality.
But I think it's also important to note that Friedman was all wrong about Japan - and that
you can argue that he was also wrong about the Great Depression, for the same reason.
For what Friedman argued, both for Japan in the 1990s and America in the 1930s, was that
all the central bank needed to do was more - push out those reserves into the banking system.
This would raise the money supply, and a higher money supply would have the usual effects.
But the Bank of Japan tried that - and found that pushing more reserves into the banks didn't
even lead to rapid growth in the money supply, let alone end the problem of deflation."
A central bank can make matters worse by tightening. But they cannot fight fiscal austerity
at the ZLB. Fiscal and monetary policy need to be pushing in the same direction.
I thought Noah Smith's article
was excellent, for once. Clearly and concisely lays out the data and its implications for theory.
Even if I accept that your criticism that he doesn't accurately state the underlying theory
is valid.
We will now see if the adage about Econ vs. physics is true ("when data contradicts
theory, physics throws out the theory. Econ throws out the data.")
I think the data can be explained by taking regency and hedging one's bets into account.
People on average tend to spend what they think is sustainable (they budget!) but they hedge
their bets against being wrong. Either a positive or negative shock will not just change the
ability to spend short-term, but may also effect how they calculate long term sustainability.
Thus - in hindsight - people may overreact to a short term shock. James Hamilton has found
this with regard to sudden changes in gas prices. The report Smith discusses finds it with
regard to both unemployment and the termination of unemployment insurances. When the shock
hits, you don't know if it is permanent or not. So you recalibrate. Btw, this also works for
positive shocks. People don't spend gas price savings until about a year into lower prices,
when they begin to believe the windfall might be more long-lasting.
Milton is almost as controversial
as Marx. Marx had a more realistic, a more grounded world-view. Marx knew damn-well that his
ideals were just that. That we should all share in the fruits of our combined labor was to
Marx, a way of achieving perfection. Pure idealism and he knew.
Friedman largely believed his own BS, and turned a blind eye to most moral arguments. This,
to me, is the heartless neoliberal that some our fellow posters are so oft to mention.
I have no data and no theory
to offer against Friedman's hypothesis, but it sure feels like there is good reason to doubt
it.
The reason I say so is that this mental behavior of converting income and expense streams
into present value sums, making long term assets and liabilities on the current personal balance
sheet, is extremely rare in my experience.
I'm not talking about just among regular working Joe's either. I'm talking about people
with plenty of excess income: fund managers and CEOs. If anyone should be able to habitually
do the math it should be these guys. But let me assert, if you want to rub elbows in that crowd,
a nearly certain way to distinguish yourself is to walk into the room with these PVs at your
fingertips. You may be totally alone.
The idea that less endowed people will do it is just giggles.
Further, it does not take much thought in this direction to analyze the expected net worth
position of people along the existing income distribution. It would appear the income level
at which one may be able to expect to fund lifetime liabilities is near the 80th percentile.
That people below that level may be able to smooth their required consumption though temporary
borrowing is just more giggles.
What's curious here is that while
Friedman (and many policymakers) may assume that most people's consumption isn't affected by
how much they earn, they are totally convinced that their spending levels are immediately and
dramatically affected by changes in their wealth!
The wealth effect is one of the pillars
of trickle down monetary policy. Proponents claim that lower interest rates drive asset prices
up, making the wealthy FEEL wealthier again...and presto they start consuming again, igniting
economic growth.
It would be very interesting to chart the course of wealthy people's spending in response
to changes in income and wealth. The results may prove Friedman right at the upper end of the
income scale--the wealthy, having more than they know what to do with, may well ride out stormy
periods by maintaining their consumption via borrowing and sale of some assets.
If Friedman's theory does apply to wealthy people, it would undermine a fundamental justification
for trickle down monetary policy and help explain why the economic recovery has been so anemic---policy
decisions where targeted at the wrong end of the income scale...at people who wouldn't boost
consumption (the wealthy) instead of at those who would boost consumption.
Once again, it would appear that deeply entrenched economic 'theories' are designed to help
the wealthy...without much empirical evidence.
Simon Wren Lewis leaves open
the possibility that an increase in aggregate demand can increase real GDP as we may not be
at full employment (I'd change that from "may not be" to "are not") but still comes out against
tax cuts for the rich with this:
"There is a very strong case for more public sector investment
on numerous grounds. But that investment should go to where it is most needed and where it
will be of most social benefit"
A little off topic, but I've
taken a further look at whether and by how much a decline in the unemployment rate coaxes people
back into the labor force. I think we can make a good back of the envelope estimate. Also:
further evidence of the importance of the cost of daycare. I will probably post next week.
Yep. As the economy gets stronger,
it does seem the labor force participation rate goes up. This is why I focus more on the employment
to population ratio and less on the unemployment rate.
Isn't there a scale issue here?
The unemployment rate is an attribute of populations, but the unemployed mostly look for work
locally, and for work they think they can do. That is, they respond more at the level of individual
opportunity
New Deal democrat -> John Williams...
, -1
When I put up my posts I will
link to them here. That will probably give you a better feel for questions to ask.
"... What is full employment is also debatable issue. For example, if workers or a good portion of workers are not earning a living wage, is that full employment? ..."
"... If production is reduced because people cannot afford the products, when in fact we have the capacity and people have the appetites and time to get utility out of the consumption is that full employment? ..."
"... Central bankers today irresistibly bring to mind the Wizard of Oz. It's the characters' missing virtues that grab me: a heart, a brain, and courage. Central bankers today lack all three. ..."
"... The Fed took risks to save the banking system, but is already telling us we are close to full employment and professing to be alarmed about "inflation," when anyone can see that banks, insurers, and pension funds are clamoring for rate rises, just as in the 1930s. Both institutions need to start thinking about someone besides the financial community. If they don't, I do not doubt that we will not have seen the last of the anger that Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders mobilized in such disparate ways in the United States..." ..."
Really what SWL is saying he and Krugman
are against fiscal expansion because the Fed will negate it with higher interest rates.
"Paul Krugman
and I say no, using the following logic. The Fed thinks we are close to full employment, if we use
the term to denote the level of employment that keeps inflation constant. Generalised tax cuts (rather
than just tax cuts to the very rich) will tend to raise aggregate demand, which will lead inflation
to increase. The Fed will therefore raise interest raise rates further to offset this increase in
demand before it happens. As a result, the tax cuts will have no impact on demand, but simply make
funding investment more expense."
Maybe Trump will then fire Yellen? Did the clever little progressive neoliberals ever consider
that?
(Probably not since Obama never mad filling open slots on the FOMC a priority.)
Or he'll swamp her with reflationary nominations to the FOMC.
djb -> Peter
K....
What is full employment is also
debatable issue. For example, if workers or a good portion of workers are not earning a living
wage, is that full employment?
If production is reduced because people cannot afford the products, when in fact we have
the capacity and people have the appetites and time to get utility out of the consumption is that full employment?
So full employment definition is a whole field in itself
Thomas Ferguson: "Central bankers today irresistibly bring to
mind the Wizard of Oz. It's the characters' missing virtues
that grab me: a heart, a brain, and courage. Central bankers
today lack all three.
First, the brain. Two generations
ago, almost every economist knew what a catastrophe a
deficiency of effective demand could create. And in a real
crunch, they knew what to do about that. They realized you
couldn't push on a string, so somebody - the government - had
to borrow and spend when private markets would not. From the
1980s on, though, the fundamental Keynesian point - the
Principle of effective Demand -disappeared in a cloud of
statistical double-talk that, when you deconstruct it, turns
out to imply estimating potential output as a lagged function
of whatever foolish policy is being pursued.
Central bankers didn't take this giant step backwards to
pre-Keynesian economics by themselves. In that sense, it's
unfair to say they have only themselves to blame. But they
swallowed it whole, helped subsidize it, and cheered it on.
Now that they have rediscovered that monetary policy can't
levitate a broken economy, except by beggaring the neighbors,
it's time they admitted their errors and stopped acting like
they could control everything...
Next, courage. In the good old days, central bankers were
given to heady talk about "taking away the punch bowl" before
the party really got going. That may have been mostly
rhetoric, but it at least paid lip service to some value
bigger than banking...
The Fed took risks to save the banking system, but is
already telling us we are close to full employment and
professing to be alarmed about "inflation," when anyone can
see that banks, insurers, and pension funds are clamoring for
rate rises, just as in the 1930s. Both institutions need to
start thinking about someone besides the financial community.
If they don't, I do not doubt that we will not have seen the
last of the anger that Donald Trump and Senator Bernie
Sanders mobilized in such disparate ways in the United
States..."
Meanwhile 'liberal' worshippers of unsubstantiated
'crowding out' theories are eager to stifle fiscal stimulus
by having the Fed take away the punch bowl before the party
starts.
The Truth About the Sanders Movement
May 23, 2016 6:17 pm 1134
In short, it's complicated – not all bad, by any means,
but not the pure uprising of idealists the more enthusiastic
supporters imagine.
The political scientists Christopher Achen and Larry
Bartels have an illuminating discussion of Sanders support.
The key graf that will probably have Berniebros boiling is
this:
"Yet commentators who have been ready and willing to
attribute Donald Trump's success to anger, authoritarianism,
or racism rather than policy issues have taken little note of
the extent to which Mr. Sanders's support is concentrated not
among liberal ideologues but among disaffected white men."
The point is not to demonize, but, if you like, to de-angelize.
Like any political movement (including the Democratic Party,
which is, yes, a coalition of interest groups) Sandersism has
been an assemblage of people with a variety of motives, not
all of them pretty. Here's a short list based on my own
encounters:
1.Genuine idealists:
For sure, quite a few Sanders
supporters dream of a better society, and for whatever reason
– maybe just because they're very young – are ready to
dismiss practical arguments about why all their dreams can't
be accomplished in a day.
2.Romantics:
This kind of idealism shades over into
something that's less about changing society than about the
fun and ego gratification of being part of The Movement.
(Those of us who were students in the 60s and early 70s very
much recognize the type.) For a while there – especially for
those who didn't understand delegate math – it felt like a
wonderful joy ride, the scrappy young on the march about to
overthrow the villainous old. But there's a thin line between
love and hate: when reality began to set in, all too many
romantics reacted by descending into bitterness, with angry
claims that they were being cheated.
3.Purists:
A somewhat different strand in the
movement, also familiar to those of us of a certain age,
consists of those for whom political activism is less about
achieving things and more about striking a personal pose.
They are the pure, the unsullied, who reject the corruptions
of this world and all those even slightly tainted – which
means anyone who actually has gotten anything done. Quite a
few Sanders surrogates were Naderites in 2000; the results of
that venture don't bother them, because it was never really
about results, only about affirming personal identity.
4.CDS victims:
Quite a few Sanders supporters are
mainly Clinton-haters, deep in the grip of Clinton
Derangement Syndrome; they know that Hillary is corrupt and
evil, because that's what they hear all the time; they don't
realize that the reason it's what they hear all the time is
that right-wing billionaires have spent more than two decades
promoting that message. Sanders has gotten a number of votes
from conservative Democrats who are voting against her, not
for him, and for sure there are liberal supporters who have
absorbed the same message, even if they don't watch Fox News.
5.Salon des Refuses:
This is a small group in
number, but accounts for a lot of the pro-Sanders commentary,
and is of course something I see a lot. What I'm talking
about here are policy intellectuals who have for whatever
reason been excluded from the inner circles of the Democratic
establishment, and saw Sanders as their ticket to the big
time. They typically hold heterodox views, but those views
don't have much to do with the campaign – sorry, capital
theory disputes from half a century ago aren't relevant to
the debate over health reform. What matters is their outsider
status, which gives them an interest in backing an outsider
candidate – and makes them reluctant to accept it when that
candidate is no longer helping the progressive cause.
So how will this coalition of the not-always disinterested
break once it's over? The genuine idealists will probably
realize that whatever their dreams, Trump would be a
nightmare. Purists and CDSers won't back Clinton, but they
were never going to anyway. My guess is that disgruntled
policy intellectuals will, in the end, generally back
Clinton.
The question, as I see it, involves the romantics. How
many will give in to their bitterness? A lot may depend on
Sanders – and whether he himself is one of those embittered
romantics, unable to move on.
Great Ironies of History #23,453: Supporters of China's
Entry to WTO Now Argue for TPP as Bulwark Against China
As the protectionist supporters of the Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP) desperately try to regroup, it's
entertaining to see how they think that China-bashing is
their best hope for success. (Yes, supporters of the TPP are
protectionist. A major thrust of the deal is to impose longer
and stronger patent and copyright and related protections on
the member countries. These are by definition forms of
protectionism, even if economists and reporters tend to like
them.)
Anyhow, we got an example of the China bashing of a TPP
supporter in a Washington Post column * by Fareed Zakaria, in
which he warned readers that China would be the main
beneficiary from a decision by Donald Trump not to pursue the
TPP as president. The economists at the Peterson Institute
for International Economics are also among those making the
argument for the TPP as an obstacle to China's growing
political strength in the region. Many of these same people
argued vociferously for allowing China to enter the World
Trade Organization in 2000 without imposing conditions like
respect for human rights or labor rights, which may have
fundamentally altered China's path of political development.
It is striking that they now think the U.S. public should now
be concerned about the growing power of a country with little
respect for these rights.
"As the protectionist supporters of the Trans-Pacific
Partnership (TPP) desperately try to regroup, it's
entertaining to see how they think that China-bashing is
their best hope for success"
A New York Times
article * on Robert
Lighthizer, Donald
Trump's pick to be
trade representative,
left out some
important background
information. It notes
that Lighthizer wants
to reduce the size of
the U.S. trade deficit
with China. It then
told readers that this
could lead to major
conflicts with China:
"Exports are
important for China.
It consistently sells
$4 worth of goods to
the United States for
each $1 of imports.
That mismatch has
produced a bilateral
trade surplus for
China equal to about 3
percent of the
country's entire
economy, creating tens
of millions of jobs.
"The benefits to
China from that
surplus have been
increasing rapidly in
the past few years."
It is worth noting
that China has
actually sharply
reduced its trade
surplus in prior
years. According to
the International
Monetary Fund ** it
peaked at 9.9 percent
of GDP in 2007. It
then declined sharply
to just 1.8 percent of
GDP in 2011. It has
since edged slightly
higher, but it is
still less than 3.0
percent of GDP.
Ordinarily, we
would expect that a
fast growing
developing country
like China would be
running a trade
deficit, as capital
flows into the country
to take advantage of
higher returns. This
has not happened in
China's case as the
government has offset
inflows of private
capital by buying up
trillions of dollars
of foreign assets. It
now holds more than $3
trillion in reserves
in addition to another
$1.5 trillion in
foreign assets in the
form of sovereign
wealth funds.
Reportedly China
has recently been
trying to raise the
value of its currency.
This would suggest an
obvious path of
agreement between the
U.S. and China under
which the two
countries could act
jointly to raise the
value of China's
currency against the
dollar, thereby
putting downward
pressure on the trade
deficit.
The piece also
notes Lighthizer's
advocacy of the
efforts of the Reagan
administration to
pressure Japanese
manufacturers to
"voluntarily" limit
their exports to the
United States. It
would have been worth
mentioning that these
restrictions on
exports led the
Japanese manufacturers
to begin to set up
factories in the
United States. Today,
most of the cars that
Japanese auto
companies sell in the
United States are
assembled here,
although they still do
include a substantial
amount of foreign
content.
This piece
seriously
misrepresents a
proposal for corporate
tax reform advocated
by Republicans in
Congress as a route to
tax imports. In fact,
the tax has been
developed by
economists who are
very much conventional
free traders. The
purpose is to simplify
the tax code and
eliminate the enormous
waste associated with
the gaming of current
system. The treatment
of imports and exports
is intended to make
the tax symmetric with
the treatment of
value-added taxes in
many U.S. trading
partners. It is not
intended as a
protectionist measure
to reduce the trade
deficit.
"... The unionization rate has plummeted over the last four decades, but this is the result of policy decisions, not automation. Canada, a country with a very similar economy and culture, had no remotely comparable decline in unionization over this period. ..."
"... The unemployment rate and overall strength of the labor market is also an important factor determining workers' ability to secure their share of the benefits of productivity growth in wages and other benefits. When the Fed raises interest rates to deliberately keep workers from getting jobs, this is not the result of automation. ..."
"... It is also not automation alone that allows some people to disproportionately get the gains from growth. The average pay of doctors in the United States is over $250,000 a year because they are powerful enough to keep out qualified foreign doctors. They require that even established foreign doctors complete a U.S. residency program before they are allowed to practice medicine in the United States. If we had a genuine free market in physicians' services every MRI would probably be read by a much lower paid radiologist in India rather than someone here pocketing over $400,000 a year. ..."
Weak Labor Market: President Obama Hides Behind Automation
It really is shameful how so many people, who certainly should know better, argue that automation
is the factor depressing the wages of large segments of the workforce and that education (i.e.
blame the ignorant workers) is the solution. President Obama takes center stage in this picture
since he said almost exactly this in his farewell address earlier in the week. This misconception
is repeated in a Claire Cain Miller's New York Times column * today. Just about every part of
the story is wrong.
Starting with the basic story of automation replacing workers, we have a simple way of measuring
this process, it's called "productivity growth." And contrary to what the automation folks tell
you, productivity growth has actually been very slow lately.
[Graph]
The figure above shows average annual rates of productivity growth for five year periods, going
back to 1952. As can be seen, the pace of automation (productivity growth) has actually been quite
slow in recent years. It is also projected by the Congressional Budget Office and most other forecasters
to remain slow for the foreseeable future, so the prospect of mass displacement of jobs by automation
runs completely counter to what we have been seeing in the labor market.
Perhaps more importantly the idea that productivity growth is bad news for workers is 180 degrees
at odds with the historical experience. In the period from 1947 to 1973, productivity growth averaged
almost 3.0 percent, yet the unemployment rate was generally low and workers saw rapid wage gains.
The reason was that workers had substantial bargaining power, in part because of strong unions,
and were able to secure the gains from productivity growth for themselves in higher living standards,
including more time off in the form of paid vacation days and paid sick days. (Shorter work hours
sustain the number of jobs in the face rising productivity.)
The unionization rate has plummeted over the last four decades, but this is the result
of policy decisions, not automation. Canada, a country with a very similar economy and culture,
had no remotely comparable decline in unionization over this period.
The unemployment rate and overall strength of the labor market is also an important factor
determining workers' ability to secure their share of the benefits of productivity growth in wages
and other benefits. When the Fed raises interest rates to deliberately keep workers from getting
jobs, this is not the result of automation.
It is also not automation alone that allows some people to disproportionately get the gains
from growth. The average pay of doctors in the United States is over $250,000 a year because they
are powerful enough to keep out qualified foreign doctors. They require that even established
foreign doctors complete a U.S. residency program before they are allowed to practice medicine
in the United States. If we had a genuine free market in physicians' services every MRI would
probably be read by a much lower paid radiologist in India rather than someone here pocketing
over $400,000 a year.
Similarly, automation did not make our patents and copyrights longer and stronger. These
protectionist measures result in us paying over $430 billion a year for drugs that would likely
cost one tenth of this amount in a free market. And automation did not force us to institutionalize
rules that created an incredibly bloated financial sector with Wall Street traders and hedge fund
partners pocketing tens of millions or even hundreds of millions a year. Nor did automation give
us a corporate governance structure that allows even the most incompetent CEOs to rip off their
companies and pay themselves tens of millions a year.
Yes, these and other topics are covered in my (free) book "Rigged: How Globalization and the
Rules of the Modern Economy Were Structured to Make the Rich Richer." ** It is understandable
that the people who benefit from this rigging would like to blame impersonal forces like automation,
but it just ain't true and the people repeating this falsehood should be ashamed of themselves.
A Darker Theme in Obama's Farewell: Automation Can
Divide Us https://nyti.ms/2ioACof via @UpshotNYT
NYT - Claire Cain Miller - January 12, 2017
Underneath the nostalgia and hope in President Obama's farewell address Tuesday night was a
darker theme: the struggle to help the people on the losing end of technological change.
"The next wave of economic dislocations won't come from overseas," Mr. Obama said. "It will
come from the relentless pace of automation that makes a lot of good, middle-class jobs obsolete."
Donald J. Trump has tended to blamed trade, offshoring and immigration. Mr. Obama acknowledged
those things have caused economic stress. But without mentioning Mr. Trump, he said they divert
attention from the bigger culprit.
Economists agree that automation has played a far greater role in job loss, over the long run,
than globalization. But few people want to stop technological progress. Indeed, the government
wants to spur more of it. The question is how to help those that it hurts.
The inequality caused by automation is a main driver of cynicism and political polarization,
Mr. Obama said. He connected it to the racial and geographic divides that have cleaved the country
post-election.
It's not just racial minorities and others like immigrants, the rural poor and transgender
people who are struggling in society, he said, but also "the middle-aged white guy who, from the
outside, may seem like he's got advantages, but has seen his world upended by economic and cultural
and technological change."
Technological change will soon be a problem for a much bigger group of people, if it isn't
already. Fifty-one percent of all the activities Americans do at work involve predictable physical
work, data collection and data processing. These are all tasks that are highly susceptible to
being automated, according to a report McKinsey published in July using data from the Bureau of
Labor Statistics and O*Net to analyze the tasks that constitute 800 jobs.
Twenty-eight percent of work activities involve tasks that are less susceptible to automation
but are still at risk, like unpredictable physical work or interacting with people. Just 21 percent
are considered safe for now, because they require applying expertise to make decisions, do something
creative or manage people.
The service sector, including health care and education jobs, is considered safest. Still,
a large part of the service sector is food service, which McKinsey found to be the most threatened
industry, even more than manufacturing. Seventy-three percent of food service tasks could be automated,
it found.
In December, the White House released a report on automation, artificial intelligence and the
economy, warning that the consequences could be dire: "The country risks leaving millions of Americans
behind and losing its position as the global economic leader."
No one knows how many people will be threatened, or how soon, the report said. It cited various
researchers' estimates that from 9 percent to 47 percent of jobs could be affected.
In the best case, it said, workers will have higher wages and more leisure time. In the worst,
there will be "significantly more workers in need of assistance and retraining as their skills
no longer match the demands of the job market."
Technology delivers its benefits and harms in an unequal way. That explains why even though
the economy is humming, it doesn't feel like it for a large group of workers.
Education is the main solution the White House advocated. When the United States moved from
an agrarian economy to an industrialized economy, it rapidly expanded high school education: By
1951, the average American had 6.2 more years of education than someone born 75 years earlier.
The extra education enabled people to do new kinds of jobs, and explains 14 percent of the annual
increases in labor productivity during that period, according to economists.
Now the country faces a similar problem. Machines can do many low-skilled tasks, and American
children, especially those from low-income and minority families, lag behind their peers in other
countries educationally.
The White House proposed enrolling more 4-year-olds in preschool and making two years of community
college free for students, as well as teaching more skills like computer science and critical
thinking. For people who have already lost their jobs, it suggested expanding apprenticeships
and retraining programs, on which the country spends half what it did 30 years ago.
Displaced workers also need extra government assistance, the report concluded. It suggested
ideas like additional unemployment benefits for people who are in retraining programs or live
in states hardest hit by job loss. It also suggested wage insurance for people who lose their
jobs and have to take a new one that pays less. Someone who made $18.50 an hour working in manufacturing,
for example, would take an $8 pay cut if he became a home health aide, one of the jobs that is
growing most quickly.
President Obama, in his speech Tuesday, named some other policy ideas for dealing with the problem:
stronger unions, an updated social safety net and a tax overhaul so that the people benefiting
most from technology share some of their earnings.
The Trump administration probably won't agree with many of those solutions. But the economic
consequences of automation will be one of the biggest problems it faces.
The Logan Act (1 Stat. 613, 18 U.S.C. § 953, enacted January 30, 1799 ) is a United States
federal law that forbids unauthorized citizens from negotiating with foreign governments having
a dispute with the U.S. It was intended to prevent the undermining of the government's position.
Good summary, but now, with some time passed, and Hillary out of Presidential race we can create
a more detailed summary. Actually for me it is unclear whether she is a felon, but she is definitely
a moron (along with all her close entourage).
The key question here is the actual level of damage to national security achieved by her actions
(or inactions). It might be great, but it might be nothing at all.
There is no question that Hillary Clinton "private" (aka bathroom) email server violated a
lot of regulations and her NDA. So formally she is guilty as hell and as a felon should go to
jail, like a lot of common folks do for similar, or even lesser, violations.
But she belongs to the "masters of the universe' and as such is above the common law. So
let's limit ourselves to the question whether she really damaged national security
First of all what Hillary did is the not just creation of her private email server. She created her "Shadow IT" Department within State Department staffed with
people, who are probably OK or even good for running IT in non-profits and charities, but not
above this level. And that even abstracting from formalities such as security clearance, presence
of classified mail in her mail stream, wiping the evidence, etc creation of Shadow IT is a a big "No-no".
Clearly
severely punishable "career-limiting" move. I now understand why Mills advised Hillary not to
run. So why she survives after such a move. That's mystery.
In corporate environment the creation of "Shadow IT" is a very serious, typically fatal charge that usually leads to immediate termination.
For federal government it is even worse, as it smells with treason. That means that all senior level IT staff
of State Department is fully complicit, and needs to be investigated and probably persecuted for
their cowardice. They understood well the level of danger and choose to ignore it "hiding their
head in the sand, like an ostrich"
But there are a lot of strange thing in this story. Both the behavior of NSA, and, surprise, surprise White house IT staff was very strange. They
definitely knew about this setup. They did not directly or indirectly reported to Hillary, unlike
IT staff of State Department. And still they did nothing. Obama himself also knew about it.
Did nothing. That
tells us something about this president. Although interception of domestic communication were never in NSA charter, still this is what
they do for living, and that means the NSA also played very strange, unexplainable to me role
in this story. NSA staff also knew about the setup from Hillary request to provide a specially secured version
of Blackberry (similar to what Obama used). Which surprisingly was denied. Looks like NSA did
not like Hillary much, is not it.
Now about the security. On the level required to create State Department infrastructure the setup used was completely
childish. It was not even incompetent, it was childish. Probably IT people responsible never saw
any other type of IT infrastructure then cash poor non-profits and never ever read NIST recommendations
for setup of this type of servers, to say nothing about more serious staff.
Even on my rather primitive understanding of computer security all those men and women involved
in Clinton bathrooms mail server drama look like complete and utter morons. But this is a real
life and such situations do happen in very large corporations, but not that often. So again
what was the real damage?
Any discussion of whether the server was "open" for hacking to state or non state actors or
not simply does not make any sense. My impression is that the level of security in Hillary's Shadow
IT server infrastructure (which includes internet modem (they were using regular ISP, like any
non-profit), router and other staff like networked printer(s)) was much lower that is required
for this question to make sense.
Still miracles happen and may be some foreign agencies thought that this is a trap, a "honeypot"
in "security-speak". So being utter moron might be a good security protection
measure in its own right, as paradoxical as it is.
But it is unclear at what point the traffic was intercepted if it was. People usually
concentrate of "bathroom server". But what about internet router and modem?
If traffic was intercepted on the router level in real time (it was not encrypted) then the damage was very real and
Hillary can be viewed as a traitor. If not, and only dumps of old emails were obtained after
she left her position of State Secratary, the question
about real damage is more complex and here the situation is alot similar with the situation
with Manning. An old staff (assuming that it was more the a year old) may be embarrsing, may
be danaging, bit it is what it is "old". Played cards. Even if some of them were
classified it is unclear what useful info can extracted for such emails. Compromising
information probably yes. Tactical information that preempts some US actions probably .no.
Also we need to take into account that Huma Abedin was a completely computer illiterate person,
who did her own set of blunders (including creating a hidden channel that copied emails to her
home server). And that Hillary herself looks like reckless sociopath, concerned only about her personal
power and money, not the interests of the state. Not to understand the level of danger she exposed State Department communications is unconceivable
for any lawyer, forget about Yale graduate at the top of her class. That increase the
damage.
Please note that whether the idea was to hide her activities was connected with "pay for pay" involving Clinton
foundation, paranoia, or something else is a completely separate topic.
IMHO Comey proved to be a "despicable coward" who first decided not to derail Clinton run (probably
not without pressure from Obama and/or Bill Clinton via Attorney General Loretta Lynch), but then,
when he discovered "Abedin channel" it well might be that he has had a second thought. That's how I read his controversial behavior. Nothing honorable in this interpretation of his
behavior too.
The whole set of events looks like literally taken from pages of the famous novel "The Good
Soldier Svejk: and His Fortunes in the World War". And we know what eventually happened to Austro-Hungarian
empire.
"... Excellent article by an economist who understands that economic extends beyond markets and intersects with political enlightenment. Were more economists that inclusive and divorced from self promotion the study would have more effective application. ..."
"... For many today, greatness is simply a government in the business of actively governing, as opposed to shying away from it under one excuse or the other. One example: the meteoric rise of incomes for the wealthy, which is a direct result of less financial regulation. First discovered by Reagan, then perfected by Clinton, the method involves highlighting regulation as a dirty word and overstating its link to American Capitalism, and in the bargain achieving less work for government, plus bag brownie points for patriotism. ..."
"... But what it really was, was a reluctance to govern for almost thirty years. Thank goodness Trump called it out for the fraud it was, and Obama decided he would spend his last month making a show of "governing". ..."
"... So that's what greatness means to most today: Government, please show up for work every day and just do your job. Not draw lines in sand and unlock every bathroom in sight and let illegals in. Just your job please, that's all. Yes? Grrreaat, thank you Donald. ..."
"... I doubt many think that the greatness of America is just about money and power. But many corporations are run on exactly this limited idea of the greatness of corporations. ..."
"... And, unfortunately, these same misguided bottom-line corporations now control Congress and the GOP. Corporate control of Congress should not be primarily for increasing corporate profits. Part of the profits stemming from automation should be used to mitigate the tremendous disappearance of jobs that corporations are causing by introducing AI and automation. ..."
"... I have traveled overseas enough to have an idea of life in other countries. My father shared something with other veterans--a sense of belonging to something bigger than them based on being "in the service." ..."
"... That comradeship, born of intense experience while young, is rare. In terms of the sense of belonging to a city or state, the most successful of us move around and cities have lost most of what made them unique. ..."
"... there is no central cultural core to being American--as compared to being French or British--other than technology and the meritocracy of money, a personal sense of ownership in America on the part of a majority of Americans runs contrary to contemporary experience. ..."
"... The first step on this path is real social & economic justice for all in our wonderful country. The current economic inequality in the U.S. is a disgrace to any just & civil society. We must figure out a way to fairly deal with that & our other inequalities of education, opportunity & racial injustices, if we are to achieve our potential of being that 'shining city on the hill' that the rest of the world will want to follow. ..."
"... A Great Society cannot be great in any meaningful sense unless it is determinedly honest -- not just self-relievingly frank. Thus, although I was happy to see this article, which I judge to be 'exemplarily' honest, I had disappointment that, in an age when the term post-truth is being used to describe conversation in English-speaking society, it neglects to emphasize the essentiality of honesty in any debate about what being a great society entails. Adam Smith did his best to point that out, but the rich and powerful and especially those in public office and those of capitalistic ideological bent appear these days to be letting us all down in this respect. ..."
"... This article is long overdue. Mr Trump has never explained is what MADE America great in the past. If questioned, he demurred. His shallow approach to policy and his poor understanding of American history and civics makes any answer from him questionable. ..."
"... Our current Free Trade pacts make it too easy for employers to shift jobs abroad. Other countries protect their industries. We should do the same, by again placing tariffs on any goods which have been manufactured abroad which could be made here. This would not be "forcing employers to restore or maintain jobs". It would be saying that if you want to sell your products here, then you will either make them here or pay tariffs on them. ..."
"... The Free Trade pacts have an additional problem. They allow international corporations to sue us if they think that one of our laws or regulations is keeping them from making as much money as they otherwise could. These lawsuits are conducted in special courts whose decisions cannot be appealed. This allows international corporations to interfere with our democracy. They should not be allowed to sue us for enforcing our own laws. ..."
"... The issue isn't what the definition of "great" is. It's who America is great *for.* America is outstandingly great for a very slim slice at the tip-top of the economy. ..."
"... The GOP are now proving that they are traitors to the general welfare. They are determined to make this nation's chief goal be to protect the welfare of the wealthiest and best-connected. If we are depending on a free press or the voting booth to protect us, we are fooling ourselves. The forces that have seized our democracy are going to gut both the press, and our civil liberties, so that this country can never again be "of, for and by the people." It will henceforth be for the plutocrats. ..."
"... The rest of us should just go quietly, and die on our own. ..."
"Make America Great Again," the slogan of President-elect
Donald
J. Trump 's successful election campaign, has been etched in the national consciousness. But
it is hard to know what to make of those vague words.
We don't have a clear definition of "great," for example, or of the historical moment when, presumably,
America was truly great. From an economic standpoint, we can't be talking about national wealth,
because the country is wealthier than it has ever been: Real per capita household net worth has reached
a record high, as Federal Reserve Board data shows.
But the distribution of wealth has certainly changed: Inequality has widened significantly. Including
the effects of taxes and government transfer payments, real incomes for the bottom half of the population
increased only 21 percent from 1980 to 2014. That compares with a 194 percent increase for the richest
1 percent, according to a new study
by Thomas Piketty, Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman.
That's why it makes sense that Mr. Trump's call for a return to greatness resonated especially
well among non-college-educated workers in Rust Belt states - people who have been hurt as good jobs
in their region disappeared. But forcing employers to restore or maintain jobs isn't reasonable,
and creating sustainable new jobs is a complex endeavor.
Difficult as job creation may be, making America great surely entails more than that, and it's
worth considering just what we should be trying to accomplish. Fortunately, political leaders and
scholars have been thinking about national greatness for a very long time, and the answer clearly
goes beyond achieving high levels of wealth.
Adam Smith, perhaps the first true economist, gave some answers in "
An Inquiry Into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations ." That treatise is sometimes
thought of as a capitalist bible. It is at least partly about the achieving of greatness through
the pursuit of wealth in free markets. But Smith didn't believe that money alone assured national
stature. He also wrote
disapprovingly of the single-minded impulse to secure wealth, saying it was "the most universal
cause of the corruption of our moral sentiments." Instead, he emphasized that decent people should
seek real achievement - "not only praise, but praiseworthiness."
Strikingly, national greatness was a central issue in a previous presidential election campaign:
Lyndon B. Johnson , in 1964, called for the creation of a
Great Society, not merely a rich society or a powerful society. Instead, he spoke of achieving
equal opportunity and fulfillment. "The Great Society is a place where every child can find knowledge
to enrich his mind and to enlarge his talents," he said. "It is a place where leisure is a welcome
chance to build and reflect, not a feared cause of boredom and restlessness."
President Johnson's words still ring true. Opportunity is not equal for everyone in America. Enforced
leisure has indeed become a feared cause of boredom and restlessness for those who have lost jobs,
who have lost overtime work, who hold part-time jobs when they desire full-time employment, or who
were pushed into unwanted early retirement.
But there are limits to what government can do.
Jane Jacobs , the great urbanist,
wrote
that great nations need great cities, yet they cannot easily create them. "The great capitals of
modern Europe did not become great cities because they were the capitals," Ms. Jacobs said. "Cause
and effect ran the other way. Paris was at first no more the seat of French kings than were the sites
of half a dozen other royal residences."
Cities grow organically, she said, capturing a certain dynamic, a virtuous circle, a specialized
culture of expertise, with one industry leading to another, and with a reputation that attracts motivated
and capable immigrants.
America still has cities like this, but a fact not widely remembered is that Detroit used to be
one of them. Its rise to greatness was gradual. As Ms. Jacobs wrote, milled flour in the 1820s and
1830s required boats to ship the flour on the Great Lakes, which led to steamboats, marine engines
and a proliferation of other industries, which set the stage for automobiles, which made Detroit
a global center for anyone interested in that technology.
I experienced the beauty and excitement of Detroit as a child there among relatives who had ties
to the auto industry. Today, residents of Detroit and other fading metropolises want their old cities
back, but generations of people must create the fresh ideas and industries that spawn great cities,
and they can't do it by fiat from Washington.
All of which is to say that government intervention to enhance greatness will not be a simple
matter. There is a risk that well-meaning change may make matters worse. Protectionist policies and
penalties for exporters of jobs may not increase long-term opportunities for Americans who have been
left behind. Large-scale reduction of environmental or social regulations or in health care benefits,
or in America's involvement in the wider world may increase our consumption, yet leave all of us
with a sense of deeper loss.
Greatness reflects not only prosperity, but it is also linked with an atmosphere, a social environment
that makes life meaningful. In President Johnson's words, greatness requires meeting not just "the
needs of the body and the demands of commerce but the desire for beauty and the hunger for community."
Excellent article by an economist who understands that economic extends beyond markets
and intersects with political enlightenment. Were more economists that inclusive and divorced
from self promotion the study would have more effective application.
For many today, greatness is simply a government in the business of actively governing,
as opposed to shying away from it under one excuse or the other. One example: the meteoric rise
of incomes for the wealthy, which is a direct result of less financial regulation. First discovered
by Reagan, then perfected by Clinton, the method involves highlighting regulation as a dirty word
and overstating its link to American Capitalism, and in the bargain achieving less work for government,
plus bag brownie points for patriotism.
But what it really was, was a reluctance to govern for almost thirty years. Thank goodness
Trump called it out for the fraud it was, and Obama decided he would spend his last month making
a show of "governing".
But Reagan did not hesitate to govern on the international stage. That credit goes solely to
Obama, a president who's turned non-governance into something of an art. From refusing to regulate
bathroom etiquette, to egging people to have more casual sex (condoms on government, no worries,
go at it all you want), to unleashing 5 million illegals on domestic soil with a stroke of the
pen, this President has been the most ungoverning president in US history.
So that's what greatness means to most today: Government, please show up for work every
day and just do your job. Not draw lines in sand and unlock every bathroom in sight and let illegals
in. Just your job please, that's all. Yes? Grrreaat, thank you Donald.
I doubt many think that the greatness of America is just about money and power. But many
corporations are run on exactly this limited idea of the greatness of corporations.
And, unfortunately, these same misguided bottom-line corporations now control Congress
and the GOP. Corporate control of Congress should not be primarily for increasing corporate profits.
Part of the profits stemming from automation should be used to mitigate the tremendous disappearance
of jobs that corporations are causing by introducing AI and automation.
I was born in America in 1956 to native-born Americans. My father served starting right after
the Berlin Blockade, up through the Korean Conflict. My political consciousness was formed by
Vietnam, Kent State, the COINTELPRO Papers, the Pentagon Papers, the Church Committee reports.
My father had trust in the federal government, whereas I have none. I became a lawyer, and
married a lawyer. My brothers and my wife's sisters are all college-educated professionals.
Financially speaking, America has been very good to me. But as far as having any intellectual
or visceral concept of what America is, or what being an American means, I couldn't tell you.
I have traveled overseas enough to have an idea of life in other countries. My father shared
something with other veterans--a sense of belonging to something bigger than them based on being
"in the service."
That comradeship, born of intense experience while young, is rare. In terms of the
sense of belonging to a city or state, the most successful of us move around and cities have lost
most of what made them unique.
Given how very little we are expected to contribute to our city, state or country, or even
our neighbors, and as there is no central cultural core to being American--as compared to
being French or British--other than technology and the meritocracy of money, a personal sense
of ownership in America on the part of a majority of Americans runs contrary to contemporary experience.
I think this article touches on not only what will make America great, but also on how we should
act in order to show the rest of the world why liberal democracies are truly the path to prosperity
& peace in this oh so imperfect world.
How do we go about defeating ISIL & winning the smoldering economic/military contest with Russia
& China & other authoritarian regimes? By living righteously & daily demonstrating that treating
the planet & each other justly & humanely is the way to real happiness on Earth. & that we can
at the same time create plenty of wealth & life-fulfilling opportunities for all our citizens.
The first step on this path is real social & economic justice for all in our wonderful
country. The current economic inequality in the U.S. is a disgrace to any just & civil society.
We must figure out a way to fairly deal with that & our other inequalities of education, opportunity
& racial injustices, if we are to achieve our potential of being that 'shining city on the hill'
that the rest of the world will want to follow.
If the great liberal democracies of Europe & North America & the southern pacific region can
reinvigorate our optimism & our commitment to the communal values that have driven the world's
prosperity since WWII, we can surely convince the rest of the world through the awesome leverage
of 'social media' that our liberal values of education, fairness, & love for all of our fellow
humans is the true path to happiness & peace on Earth.
As a Britisher, educated at Wharton by the grace of an American-owned company, I feel gratitude
for American generosity; yet I am now a Canadian citizen, having decided that the US in the time
of Nixon could never be a place where my family could be happy. So I write this with mixed feelings.
A Great Society cannot be great in any meaningful sense unless it is determinedly honest
-- not just self-relievingly frank. Thus, although I was happy to see this article, which I judge
to be 'exemplarily' honest, I had disappointment that, in an age when the term post-truth is being
used to describe conversation in English-speaking society, it neglects to emphasize the essentiality
of honesty in any debate about what being a great society entails. Adam Smith did his best to
point that out, but the rich and powerful and especially those in public office and those of capitalistic
ideological bent appear these days to be letting us all down in this respect.
Having made a modest livelihood as an executive coach, I do not pretend that being honest (without
being self-relievingly so) is easy in high-level negotiations. Indeed it requires enormous courage,
intellect, empathy, and articulation skills. So I have enormous grief and considerable anxiety
for the state of US society today. But efforts like this one by the New York Times are certain
to be helpful. Thank you. I hope my contribution will be valuable to this fine newspaper and its
readers alike.
This article is long overdue. Mr Trump has never explained is what MADE America great in
the past. If questioned, he demurred. His shallow approach to policy and his poor understanding
of American history and civics makes any answer from him questionable.
Yet almost every policy and piece of legislation by Republicans seems aimed at making more
money for business. They assume it will trickle down to the workers (and we have seen over 30
years of how good that is working). So Republicans will ignore your plea or denigrate it. Doing
anything close to what you suggest gets in the way of making money.
"But forcing employers to restore or maintain jobs isn't reasonable, "
Our current Free Trade pacts make it too easy for employers to shift jobs abroad. Other
countries protect their industries. We should do the same, by again placing tariffs on any goods
which have been manufactured abroad which could be made here. This would not be "forcing employers
to restore or maintain jobs". It would be saying that if you want to sell your products here,
then you will either make them here or pay tariffs on them.
The Free Trade pacts have an additional problem. They allow international corporations
to sue us if they think that one of our laws or regulations is keeping them from making as much
money as they otherwise could. These lawsuits are conducted in special courts whose decisions
cannot be appealed. This allows international corporations to interfere with our democracy. They
should not be allowed to sue us for enforcing our own laws.
The issue isn't what the definition of "great" is. It's who America is great *for.* America
is outstandingly great for a very slim slice at the tip-top of the economy.
It's great for the Trumps and his cabinet members. These people have so much wealth that they
have bought our government. The gleeful look on McConnell's face last night after the GOP moved
to get rid of health care for millions, and to turn it back to the whim of the insurance companies,
said it all: America is great again for him. It's great for his owners.
The GOP are now proving that they are traitors to the general welfare. They are determined
to make this nation's chief goal be to protect the welfare of the wealthiest and best-connected.
If we are depending on a free press or the voting booth to protect us, we are fooling ourselves.
The forces that have seized our democracy are going to gut both the press, and our civil liberties,
so that this country can never again be "of, for and by the people." It will henceforth be for
the plutocrats.
The rest of us should just go quietly, and die on our own.
"... For him, the Soviet Union was once a stable, entrenched, conservative state and the majority of Russian people -- actually myself included -- thought it would last forever. But the way people employ language and read ideologies can change. That change can be undetectable at first, and then unstoppable. ..."
" In America there was once a popular but simplistic image of the Soviet Russia as the Evil
Empire destined to fall, precisely because it was unfree and therefore evil. Ronald Reagan who
advocated it also once said that the Russian people do not have a word for "freedom". Not so fast
-- says Alexei Yurchak. He was born in the Soviet Union and became a cultural anthropologist in
California. He employs linguistic structural analysis in very interesting ways. For him, the
Soviet Union was once a stable, entrenched, conservative state and the majority of Russian people
-- actually myself included -- thought it would last forever. But the way people employ language
and read ideologies can change. That change can be undetectable at first, and then unstoppable.
Yurchak's Master-idea is that the Soviet system was an example of how a state can prepare its
own demise in an invisible way. It happened in Russia through unraveling of authoritative discourse
by Gorbachev's naive but well-meaning shillyshallying undermining the Soviet system and the master
signifiers with which the Soviet society was "quilted" and held together. According to Yurchak
"In its first three or four years, perestroika was not much more than a deconstruction of Soviet
authoritative discourse". This could a cautionary tale for America as well because the Soviet
Union shared more features with American modernity than the Americans themselves are willing to
admit.
The demise of the Soviet Union was not caused by anti-modernity or backwardness of Russian
people. The Soviet experiment was a cousin of Western modernity and shared many features with
the Western democracies, in particular its roots in the Enlightenment project. The Soviet Union
wasn't "evil" in late stages 1950-1980s. The most people were decent. The Soviet system, despite
its flaws, offered a set of collective values. There were many moral and ethical aspects to Soviet
socialism, and even though those values have been betrayed by the state, they were still very
important to people themselves in their lives. These values were: solidarity, community, altruism,
education, creativity, friendship and safety. Perhaps they were incommensurable with the "Western
values" such as the rule of law and freedom, but for Russians they were the most important. For
many "socialism" was a system of human values and everyday realities which wasn't necessarily
equivalent of the official interpretation provided by the state rhetoric.
Yurchak starts with a general paradox within the ideology of modernity: the split between ideological
enunciation, which reflects the theoretical ideals of the Enlightenment, and ideological rule,
which are the practical concerns of the modern state's political authority. In Soviet Union the
paradox was "solved" by means of dogmatic political closure and elevation of Master signifier
[Lenin, Stalin, Party] but it doesn't mean the Western democracies are immune to totalitarian
temptation to which the Soviet Union had succumbed. The vast governmental bureaucracy and Quango-state
are waiting in the shadows here as well, may be ready to appropriate discourse.
It is hard to agree with everything in his book. But it is an interesting perspective. I wish
Alexei Yurchak would explore more implications of Roman Jacobson's "poetic function of language"
and its connection to Russian experiment in communism. It seems to me, as a Russian native speaker,
that Russians put stress on form, sound, and poetics. The English-language tradition prioritizes
content and meaning. Can we speak of "Hermeneutics" of the West versus "Poetics" of Russia? Perhaps
the tragedy of Russia was under-development of Hermeneutics? How does one explain the feeble attempts
to throw a light of reason into the loopy texts and theories of Marks, Lenin, Trotsky and Stalin?
Perhaps the Russians read it as a kind of magical text, a poetry, a bad poetry -- not Pasternak
or Blok -- but kind of poetry nevertheless?
Just loved this -- a brilliant study of how everyday citizens (as opposed to active supporters
or dissidents) cope with living in a decadent dictatorship, through strategies of ignoring the
powerful, focusing on hyperlocal socialities, treating ritualized support for the regime as little
more than an annoying chore, and withdrawal into subcultures. Yurchak demolishes the view that
the only choices available to late Soviet citizens were either blind support (though his accounts
of those figures who chose this path are deeply chilling) or active resistance, while at the same
time showing how many of the purported values of Soviet socialism (equality, education, friendship,
community, etc) were in fact deeply held by many in the population. While his entire account is
a tacit meditation on the manifold unpleasantnesses of living under the Soviet system, Yurchak
also makes clear that it was not all unpleasantness and that indeed for some people (such as theoretical
physicists) life under Soviet socialism was in some ways freer than for their peers in the West.
All of which makes the book function (sotto voce) as an explanation for the nostalgia that many
in Russia today feel for Soviet times - something inexplicable to those who claim that Communism
was simply and nothing but an evil.
The theoretical vehicle for Yurchak's investigation is the divergence between the performative
rather than the constative dimensions of the "authoritative discourse" of the late Soviet regime.
One might say that his basic thesis is that, for most Soviet people, the attitude toward the authorities
was "They pretend to make statements that corresponded to reality, and we pretend to believe them."
Yurchak rightly observes that one can neither interpret the decision to vote in favor of an official
resolution or to display a pro-government slogan at a rally as being an unambiguous statement
of regime support, nor assume that these actions were directly coerced. People were expected to
perform these rituals, but they developed "a complexly differentiating relationship to the ideological
meanings, norms, and values" of the Soviet state. "Depending on the context, they might reject
a certain meaning, norm or value, be apathetic about another, continue actively subscribing to
a third, creatively reinterpret a fourth, and so on." (28-29)
The result was that, as the discourse of the late Soviet period ossified into completely formalist
incantations (a process that Yurchak demonstrates was increasingly routinized from the 1950s onwards),
Soviet citizens participated in these more for ritualistic reasons than because of fervent belief,
which in turn allowed citizens to fill their lives with other sources of identity and meaning.
Soviet citizens would go to cafes and talk about music and literature, join a rock band or art
collective, take silly jobs that required little effort and thus left room for them to pursue
their "interests." The very drabness of the standardizations of Soviet life therefore created
new sorts of (admittedly constrained) spaces within which people could define themselves and their
(inter)subjective meanings. All of which is to say that the book consists of a dramatic refutation
of the "totalitarianism" thesis, demonstrating that despite the totalitarian ambitions of the
regime, citizens were continually able to carve out zones of autonomy and identification that
transcended the ambitions of the Authoritative discourse.
"... Normalisation is what has historically happened in the wake of financial crises. During the booms that precede busts, low interest rates encourage people to make investments with borrowed money. However, even after all of the prudent investment opportunities have been taken, people continue borrowing to invest in projects and ideas that are unlikely to ever generate profits. ..."
"... Eventually, the precariousness of some of these later investments becomes apparent. Those that arrive at this realization early sell up, settle their debts and pocket profits, but their selling often triggers a rush for the exits that bankrupts companies and individuals and, in many cases, the banks which lent to them. ..."
"... By contrast, the responses of policy-makers to 2008's financial crisis suggest the psychology of hypernormalisation. Quantitative easing (also known as money printing) and interest rate suppression (to zero percent and, in Europe, negative interest rates) are not working and will never result in sustained increases in productivity, income and employment. However, as our leaders are unable to consider alternative policy solutions, they have to pretend that they are working. ..."
"... Statistical chicanery has helped understate unemployment and inflation while global cooperation has served to obscure the currency depreciation and loss of confidence in paper money (as opposed to 'hard money' such as gold and silver) that are to be expected from rampant money printing. ..."
"... The recent fuss over 'fake news' seems intended to remove alternative news and information sources from a population that, alarmingly for those in charge, is both ever-more aware that the system is not working and less and less willing to pretend that it is . Just this month U.S. President Barack Obama signed the Countering Disinformation and Propaganda Act into law. United States, meet your Ministry of Truth. ..."
"... Great article. I think it does describe the USSA at the present time. Everything works until it doesn't. ..."
"... The funny thing is I had almost identical thoughts just a few days ago. But I was thinking in comparison more of East Germany's last 20 years before they imploded - peacefully, because not a single non-leading-rank person believed any of the official facts anymore (and therefore they even simply ignored orders from high command to crush the Leipzig Monday demonstrations.) ..."
"... I'm ok with a world led by Trump and Putin. ..."
"... I recall the joke from the old Soviet Union: "They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work." In the USSA these last few years, Barry pretends to tell the truth. Libtards pretend to believe him. ..."
"... Wrong. They believe him. Look at the gaggle of libtard/shiteaters at Soetero's Friday night bash at the White House. ..."
"... Reagan used to quip that in the Soviet Union, the people pretend to work and the government pretends to pay them. We're not the Soviet Union, but we have become a farce. Next stop - the fall. Followed by chaos, then onto something new. The new elites will just be the old elites, well, the ones that escape the noose. ..."
"... The real ugly problem with the Soviet Union is that whatever they broke it into isn't working well either. ..."
"... Russia's problem post collapse was the good ol' USSA and its capitalist, plunderer banking mavens. ..."
"... The only way to normalize banking in a contemporary banking paradigm of QE Infinity & Beyond is to start over again without the bankers & accountants that knowingly bet the ranch for a short term gain at the expense of long term profitability. In Japan an honourable businessman/CEO would suicide for bringing this kind of devastation to the company shareholders. ..."
"... In America they don't give a shit because it is always someone else other than the CEO that takes the fall. ..."
"... This, after I'd point out his evasion and deflection every time I addressed his bias and belief in the MSM propaganda mantras of racism, misogyny, xenophobia - all the usual labeling bullshit up to insinuating Russia hacked the election ..."
"... I've been using the term Hypernormalisation to describe aspects of western society for the last 15 years, before Adam Curtis's brilliant BBC documentary Hypernormalisation , afflicting western society and particularly politics. There are lies and gross distortions everywhere in western society and it straddles/effects all races, colours, social classes and the disease is most acute in our politics. ..."
"... We all know the hypernoprmalisation in politics, as we witness stories everyday on Zerohedge of the disconnect from reality ..."
"... It is called COGNITIVE DISSONANCE .. ..."
"... "When they are presented with evidence that works against that belief, the new evidence cannot be accepted. It would create a feeling that is extremely uncomfortable, called cognitive dissonance. And because it is so important to protect the core belief, they will rationalize, ignore and even deny anything that doesn't fit with the core belief." ..."
"... During their final days as a world power, the Soviet Union allowed cognitive dissonance to rule its better judgment as so many Americans are doing in 2012. The handwriting on the wall was pretty clear for Gorbachev. The Soviet economy was failing. They did none of the necessary things to save their economy. In 2012, the handwriting on the wall is pretty clear for the American people. The economy is failing. The people and the Congress do none of the necessary things to save their economy. Why? Go re-read the definition of cognitive dissonance. That's why. We have a classic fight going on between those who want government to take care of them who will pay the price of lost freedom to get that care, and those who value freedom above all else. ..."
"... to me the PTB are "Japanifying" the u.s. (decades of no growth, near total demoralization of a generation of worker bees (as in, 'things will never get any better, be glad for what little you've got' etc... look what they've done to u.s. millenials just since '08... fooled (crushed) them TWICE already) ..."
"... But the PTB Plan B is to emulate the USSR with a crackup, replete with fire sale to oligarchs of public assets. ..."
The term comes from Alexei Yurchak's 2006 book Everything was Forever, Until it was No More: The
Last Soviet Generation. The book argues that over the last 20 years of the Soviet Union, everyone
knew the system wasn't working, but as no one could imagine any alternative, politicians and citizens
were resigned to pretending that it was. Eventually this pretending was accepted as normal and the
fake reality thus created was accepted as real, an effect which Yurchak termed "hypernormalisation."
Looking at events over the past few years, one wonders if our own society is experiencing the
same phenomenon. A contrast with what economic policy-makers term "normalisation" is instructive.
Normalisation is what has historically happened in the wake of financial crises. During the
booms that precede busts, low interest rates encourage people to make investments with borrowed money.
However, even after all of the prudent investment opportunities have been taken, people continue
borrowing to invest in projects and ideas that are unlikely to ever generate profits.
Eventually, the precariousness of some of these later investments becomes apparent. Those
that arrive at this realization early sell up, settle their debts and pocket profits, but their selling
often triggers a rush for the exits that bankrupts companies and individuals and, in many cases,
the banks which lent to them.
In the normalisation which follows (usually held during 'special' bank holidays) auditors and
accountants go through financial records and decide which companies and individuals are insolvent
(and should therefore go bankrupt) and which are merely illiquid (and therefore eligible for additional
loans, pledged against good collateral). In a similar fashion, central bank officials decide which
banks are to close and which are to remain open. Lenders made freshly aware of bankruptcy risk raise
(or normalise) interest rates and in so doing complete the process of clearing bad debt out of the
system. Overall, reality replaces wishful thinking.
While this process is by no means pleasant for the people involved, from a societal standpoint
bankruptcy and higher interest rates are necessary to keep businesses focused on profitable investment,
banks focused on prudent lending and overall debt levels manageable.
By contrast, the responses of policy-makers to 2008's financial crisis suggest the psychology
of hypernormalisation. Quantitative easing (also known as money printing) and interest rate suppression
(to zero percent and, in Europe, negative interest rates) are not working and will never result in
sustained increases in productivity, income and employment. However, as our leaders are unable to
consider alternative policy solutions, they have to pretend that they are working.
To understand why our leaders are unable to consider alternative policy solutions such as interest
rate normalization and banking reform one only needs to understand that while such policies would
lay the groundwork for a sustained recovery, they would also expose many of the world's biggest banks
as insolvent. As the financial sector is a powerful constituency (and a generous donor to political
campaigns) the banks get the free money they need, even if such policies harm society as a whole.
As we live in a democratic society, it is necessary for our leaders to convince us that there
are no other solutions and that the monetary policy fixes of the past 8 years have been effective
and have done no harm.
Statistical chicanery has helped understate unemployment and inflation while global cooperation
has served to obscure the currency depreciation and loss of confidence in paper money (as opposed
to 'hard money' such as gold and silver) that are to be expected from rampant money printing.
Looking at unemployment figures first, while the unemployment rate is currently very low, the
number of Americans of working age not in the labour force is currently at an all-time high of over
95 million people. Discouraged workers who stop looking for work are no longer classified as unemployed
but instead become economically inactive, but clearly many of these people really should be counted
as unemployed. Similarly, while government statistical agencies record inflation rates of between
one and two percent, measures that use methodologies used in the past (such as John Williams' Shadowstats
measures) show consumer prices rising at annual rates of 6 to 8 percent. In addition, many people
have noticed what has been termed 'shrinkflation', where prices remain the same even as package sizes
shrink. A common example is bacon, which used to be sold by the pound but which is now commonly sold
in 12 ounce slabs.
Meanwhile central banks have coordinated their money printing to ensure that no major currency
(the dollar, the yen, the euro or the Chinese renminbi) depreciates noticeably against the others
for a sustained period of time. Further, since gold hit a peak of over $1900 per ounce in 2011, central
banks have worked hard to keep the gold price suppressed through the futures market. On more than
a few occasions, contracts for many months worth of global gold production have been sold in a matter
of a few minutes, with predictable consequences for the gold price. At all costs, people's confidence
in and acceptance of the paper (or, more commonly, electronic) money issued by central banks must
be maintained.
Despite these efforts people nonetheless sense that something is wrong. The Brexit vote and the
election of Donald Trump to the White House represent to a large degree a rejection of the fake reality
propagated by the policymaking elite. Increasingly, people recognize that a financial system dependent
upon zero percent interest rates is not sustainable and are responding by taking their money out
of the banks in favour of holding cash or other forms of wealth. In the face of such understanding
and resistance, governments are showing themselves willing to use coercion to enforce acceptance
of their fake reality.
The recent fuss over 'fake news' seems intended to remove alternative news and information
sources from a population that, alarmingly for those in charge, is both ever-more aware that the
system is not working and less and less willing to pretend that it is . Just this month U.S. President
Barack Obama signed the Countering Disinformation and Propaganda Act into law. United States, meet
your Ministry of Truth.
Meanwhile, in India last month, people were told that the highest denomination bills in common
circulation would be 'demonetized' or made worthless as of December 30th. People were allowed to
deposit or exchange a certain quantity of the demonetized bills in banks but many people who had
accumulated their savings in rupee notes (often the poor who did not have bank accounts) have been
ruined. Ostensibly, this demonetization policy was aimed at curbing corruption and terrorism, but
it is fairly obvious that its real objective was to force people into the banking system and electronic
money. Unsurprisingly, the demonetization drive was accompanied by limits on the quantity of gold
people are allowed to hold.
Despite such attempts to influence our thinking and our behaviour, we don't need to resign ourselves
to pretending that our system is working when it so clearly isn't. Looking at the eventual fate of
the Soviet Union, it should be clear that the sooner we abandon the drift towards hypernormalisation
and start on the path to normalisation the better off we will be.
Correct. I seen with sufficient level of comprehending consciousness the last 5 years of it
- copy-cat perfection with the current times in US(S)A, terrifying how similar the times are as
it is a clear indication of the times to come.
The funny thing is I had almost identical thoughts just a few days ago. But I was thinking
in comparison more of East Germany's last 20 years before they imploded - peacefully, because
not a single non-leading-rank person believed any of the official facts anymore (and therefore
they even simply ignored orders from high command to crush the Leipzig Monday demonstrations.)
I was just thinking that the whole economic world sees us in a sort of equilibrium at the moment.
There will be some adjustments under Trump, but nothing serious. We shall see ..
Repeat something often enough and it becomes hypernormalised. With that in mind the number
of eyes/minds/hits is all that matters. This has been known and exploited for hundreds of years.
That a handful of individuals can have a monopoly over the single most important aspect of
whether you live or die is the ultimate success of hypernormalisation. CENTRAL BANKING.
Mrs.M is of the last Soviet generation. Her .gov papers say so. There is never
a day when I don't hear something soviet. She still has a her red pioneer ribbon.
I have tried to encourage her to write about it on ZH so that we know. Do you think she
will? No. She's says that we can't understand what it was like no matter what she
says.
Mrs.M was born in 1981 so she has lived an interesting life. I married her in 2004 after
much paperwork and $15000. I wanted that female because we got along quite well. She
is who I needed with me this and I would do it all over again.
Needless to say, I do not support any aggression towards Russia. And to my fellow Americans,
I advise caution because the half you are broke ass fucks and are already ropes with me.
I recall the joke from the old Soviet Union: "They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work."
In the USSA these last few years, Barry pretends to tell the truth. Libtards pretend to believe
him.
Geezer, I'd change only one thing... I believe libtards bought Barry's bullshit hook, line
and sinker... it was the rest of us who not-so-subtly were saying WTF!!!
Reagan used to quip that in the Soviet Union, the people pretend to work and the government
pretends to pay them. We're not the Soviet Union, but we have become a farce. Next stop
- the fall. Followed by chaos, then onto something new. The new elites will just be the old elites,
well, the ones that escape the noose.
what noose? you think joe 6p is going to identify the culprits? i think not. "no one saw this
coming!!!" is still ringing in my ears from the last time.
I really don't know how people can keep on getting clicks with this tired crap. It didn't happen
in 2008 just get over it. The delusional people are the people that think the world is going to
end tomorrow.
Maybe the world has ended, for 95 million? I haven't paid a single Fed income tax dollar
in over 8 yrs., for a specific reason, I refuse to support the new normal circus, and quite frankly
I would have gotten out during the GWBush regime, but I couldn't afford to at the time.
The real ugly problem with the Soviet Union is that whatever they broke it into isn't working
well either. Same with the USSA. No one really knows what to do. Feudalism would probably
work, but it is not possible to go back to it. My bet is that we will end up with some form of
socialism, universal income and whatever else, just because there is no good alternative for dealing
with lots and lots of people who are not needed anymore.
Do you mean useless eaters or fuckers deserving the guillotine? Russia's problem post collapse
was the good ol' USSA and its capitalist, plunderer banking mavens.
The Soviet Union pushed its old culture to near destruction but failed to establish a new and
better culture to replace it, writes Angelo M. Codevilla in "The Rise of Political Correctness,"
and as a result the U.S.S.R fell, just as America's current "politically correct" and dysfunctional
"progressive utopia" will implode.
As such, Codevilla would agree that the US population " is both ever-more aware that the system
is not working and less and less willing to pretend that it is."
As for the U.S.S.R., "this step turned out instead to destroy the very basis of Soviet power,"
writes Codevilla. "[C]ontinued efforts to force people to celebrate the party's ersatz reality,
to affirm things that they know are not true and to deny others they know to be true – to live
by lies – requires breaking them , reducing them to a sense of fearful isolation, destroying their
self-esteem and their capacity to trust others. George Orwell's novel 1984 dramatized this culture
war's ends and means : nothing less than the substitution of the party's authority for the reality
conveyed by human senses and reason. Big Brother's agent, having berated the hapless Winston
for preferring his own views to society's dictates, finished breaking his spirit by holding up
four fingers and demanding that Winston acknowledge seeing five.
"Thus did the Soviet regime create dysfunctional, cynical, and resentful subjects. Because
Communism confused destruction of 'bourgeois culture' with cultural conquest, it won all the cultural
battles while losing its culture war long before it collapsed politically. As Communists identified
themselves in people's minds with falsehood and fraud, people came to identify truth with anything
other than the officials and their doctrines. Inevitably, they also identified them with corruption
and privation. A nd so it was that, whenever the authorities announced that the harvest had been
good, the people hoarded potatoes; and that more and more people who knew nothing of Christianity
except that the authorities had anathematized it, started wearing crosses."
And if you want to see the ruling class's culture war in action today in America, pick up the
latest issues of Vogue Magazine or O, The Oprah Magazine with their multitude of role reversals
between whites and minorities. Or check out the latest decisions by the U.S. Supreme Court forcing
people to acknowledge that America is not a Christian nation, or making it "more difficult for
men, women and children to exist as a family" or demanding via law "that their subjects join them
in celebrating the new order that reflects their identity."
As to just how far the ruling class has gone to serve the interests and proclivities of its
leaders and to reject the majority's demand for representation, Codevilla notes, "In 2012 no one
would have thought that defining marriage between one man and one woman, as enshrined in U.S.
law, would brand those who do so as motivated by a culpable psychopathology called 'homophobia,'
subject to fines and near-outlaw status. Not until 2015-16 did it occur to anyone that requiring
persons with male personal plumbing to use public bathrooms reserved for men was a sign of the
same pathology
"On the wholesale level, it is a war on civilization waged to indulge identity politics."
This article is so flawed! People[impoverished] aren't trying to jump over a wall patrolled
by guards into Mexico -YET. Tyler, why do you repost shit like this?
That's because the Yankees, fleeing high taxes, can move to the sunbelt states w/o freezing.
The USA went broke in 2008. Mexico got a head start by 22 years when oil prices collapsed in '86.
The only way to normalize banking in a contemporary banking paradigm of QE Infinity & Beyond
is to start over again without the bankers & accountants that knowingly bet the ranch for a short
term gain at the expense of long term profitability. In Japan an honourable businessman/CEO would
suicide for bringing this kind of devastation to the company shareholders.
In America they don't give a shit because it is always someone else other than the CEO
that takes the fall. 08 was proof that America is not equipped to participate in a Multinational
& Multipolar world of business & investment in business. America can't get along in business in
this world anymore. Greed has rendered America unemployable as a major market participant in a
Globally run network of businesses.
America is the odd man out these days even though the next POTUS promises better management
from a business perspective. Whilst the Mafia Cartel bosses trust TrumpO's business savvy the
rest of the planet Earth does not.
A liberal friend laid this movie on me to show me why he supported Hillary. A smart cookie,
a PHd teaching English in Japan. A Khazarnazi Jew, he even spent time in Kyiv, Ukraine pre-coup,
only mingling with "poets and writers". He went out of his way to tell me how bad the Russians
were, informed as he was prior to the rejection of the EU's usurious offer.
He even quite dramatically pulled out the Anti-Semite card. I had to throw Banderas in his
face and the US sponsored regime. I had respect for this guy and his knowledge but he just - could
- not - let - go the cult assumptions. I finally came to believe Liberal Arts educators are victims
of inbred conditioning. In retaliation, he wanted to somehow prove Putin a charlatan or villian
and Trump his proxie.
This, after I'd point out his evasion and deflection every time I addressed his bias and
belief in the MSM propaganda mantras of racism, misogyny, xenophobia - all the usual labeling
bullshit up to insinuating Russia hacked the election. Excerpts from a correspondence wherein
I go full asshole on the guy follow. Try and make sense of it if you watch this trash:
HyperNormalization 50:29 Not Ronald Rayguns, or Quadaffi plays along. Say what? They're, i.e.
Curtis, assuming what Q thought?
1:15 USSR collapses. No shit. Cronyism in a centralized organization grown too large is inevitable
it seems. So the premise has evolved to cultural/societal "management". Right. USSR collapses
but let's repeat the same mistakes 'cause "it's different this time". We got us a computer!
Then Fink the failed Squid (how do Squids climb the corporate ladder?) builds one and programs
historical data to,,,, forecast? I heard a' this. Let me guess. He couldn't avoid bias, making
his models fallacious. Whoops. Well, he does intend to manipulate society, or was that not the
goal? Come again? Some authority ran with it and ... captured an entire nation's media, conspired
with other like-minded sycophants and their mysterious masters to capture an election by ... I
may be getting ahead of myself.
Oh, boy, I have an inkling of where this is going. Perceptions modified by the word, advanced
by the herd, in order to capture a vulnerable society under duress, who then pick sides, fool
themselves in the process, miss the three hour tour never to live happily ever after on a deserted
isle because they eschew (pick a bias here from the list provided). The one you think the "others"
have, 'cause, shit, we're above it all, right? " Are we not entertained" is probably not the most
appropriate question here.
Point being, Curtis, the BBC documentarian, totally negates the reality of pathological Imperialism
as has been practiced by the West over the last half century, causing so many of the effects
he so casually eludes to in the Arab Spring, Libya, Syria, Russia, the US and elsewhere. Perhaps
the most blatant is this; Curtis asserts that Trump "defeated journalism" by rendering its fact-checking
abilities irrelevant. Wikipedia He Hypernormalizes the very audience that believes itself to be
enlightened. As for my erstwhile friend, the fucker never once admitted all the people *killed*
for the ideals he supported. I finally blew him off for good.
I've been using the term Hypernormalisation to describe aspects of western society for
the last 15 years, before Adam Curtis's brilliant BBC documentary Hypernormalisation , afflicting
western society and particularly politics. There are lies and gross distortions everywhere in
western society and it straddles/effects all races, colours, social classes and the disease is
most acute in our politics.
We all know the hypernoprmalisation in politics, as we witness stories everyday on Zerohedge
of the disconnect from reality...
Enter Operation Stillpoint: William Colby, William Casey and Leo Emil Wanta.
At the time it started, President Reagan wanted to get a better handle on ways to keep the
Soviets from expansionary tactics used to spread Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov Lenin's philosophy of
communism around the world. He looked to his Special Task Force to provide a means of doing so.
One thing was certain: The economy of the Soviets had never been strong and corruption, always
present in government and always growing at least as fast as a government grows, made the USSR
vulnerable to outside interference just as the United States is today.
According to Gorbachev's Prime Minister, Nikolai Ryzhkov, the "moral [nravstennoe] state of
the society" in 1985 was its "most terrifying" feature: "[We] stole from ourselves, took and gave
bribes, lied in the reports, in newspapers, from high podiums, wallowed in our lies, hung medals
on one another. And all of this – from top to bottom and from bottom to top."
Again, it sounds like today's America, doesn't it?
Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze made equally painful comments about the lawlessness and
corruption dominating the Soviet Union. During the winter months of 1984-85, he told Gorbachev
that "Everything is rotten. It has to be changed."
"Sometimes people hold a core belief that is very strong," Frantz Fanon said in his 1952 book
Black Skin, White Masks (originally published in French as Peau Noire, Masques Blancs). "When
they are presented with evidence that works against that belief, the new evidence cannot be accepted.
It would create a feeling that is extremely uncomfortable, called cognitive dissonance. And because
it is so important to protect the core belief, they will rationalize, ignore and even deny anything
that doesn't fit with the core belief."
COGNITIVE DISSONANCE
During their final days as a world power, the Soviet Union allowed cognitive dissonance
to rule its better judgment as so many Americans are doing in 2012. The handwriting on the wall
was pretty clear for Gorbachev. The Soviet economy was failing. They did none of the necessary
things to save their economy. In 2012, the handwriting on the wall is pretty clear for the American
people. The economy is failing. The people and the Congress do none of the necessary things to
save their economy. Why? Go re-read the definition of cognitive dissonance. That's why. We have
a classic fight going on between those who want government to take care of them who will pay the
price of lost freedom to get that care, and those who value freedom above all else.
On one day we have 50 state attorneys general suing Bank of America for making fraudulent mortgages,
and on the next we have M.F. Global losing billions upon billions of customer dollars because
they got mixed with the firm's funds – which is against the law – or we have J.P. Morgan Chase
losing $2 billion (or is it $5 billion?) in bad investments. As Eduard Shevardnadze said, "Everything
is rotten. It has to be changed." As I would say it, "There is no Rule of Law in America today.
There has been no real Rule of Law since George Herbert Walker Bush took office."
No one listened then; no one is listening in America now. The primary reason? Cognitive dissonance.
-- Chapter 2, "Wanta! Black Swan, White Hat" (2013)
Okay then, forget what was said in 1985, that was later reported in 2013 ..
Lee Wanta. I've heard of him before. He was screwed over for some bullshit charges. And the
CIA made a firm warning... How long did that dude spent in jail?
Just looked up his story as it was blurry. Cronyism at its finest. So now that I got my refreshing
course. Trump stole/adopted (however you want to look at that) his plan and the project the gov
(DOT) proposes sucks donkey balls compared to Wanta's.
So where are all the climate hoaxers now by the way? You'd figure they'd be all over this.
to me the PTB are "Japanifying" the u.s. (decades of no growth, near total demoralization
of a generation of worker bees (as in, 'things will never get any better, be glad for what little
you've got' etc... look what they've done to u.s. millenials just since '08... fooled (crushed)
them TWICE already)
But the PTB Plan B is to emulate the USSR with a crackup, replete with fire sale to oligarchs
of public assets. They will Japan as long as they can (so it will be difficult to forecast
any crackup anymore than six months beforehand). Hope they have a Gorbachev lined up, to limit
the bloodshed
"... Our model for funding infrastructure is broken. Federal funding means project that are most needed by cities can be overlooked while projects that would destroy cities are funded. ..."
"... The neo in neoliberalism, however, establishes these principles on a significantly different analytic basis from those set forth by Adam Smith, as will become clear below. Moreover, neoliberalism is not simply a set of economic policies; it is not only about facilitating free trade, maximizing corporate profits, and challenging welfarism. ..."
"... But in so doing, it carries responsibility for the self to new heights: the rationally calculating individual bears full responsibility for the consequences of his or her action no matter how severe the constraints on this action-for example, lack of skills, education, and child care in a period of high unemployment and limited welfare benefits. ..."
"... A fully realized neoliberal citizenry would be the opposite of public-minded; indeed, it would barely exist as a public. The body politic ceases to be a body but is rather a group of individual entrepreneurs and consumers . . . ..."
"... consider the market rationality permeating universities today, from admissions and recruiting to the relentless consumer mentality of students as they consider university brand names, courses, and services, from faculty raiding and pay scales to promotion criteria. ..."
"... The extension of market rationality to every sphere, and especially the reduction of moral and political judgment to a cost-benefit calculus, would represent precisely the evisceration of substantive values by instrumental rationality that Weber predicted as the future of a disenchanted world. Thinking and judging are reduced to instrumental calculation in Weber's "polar night of icy darkness"-there is no morality, no faith, no heroism, indeed no meaning outside the market. ..."
There is nothing common between articles of Zingales and Schiller.
My impression is that Schiller might lost his calling: he might achieve even greater success
as a diplomat, if he took this career. He managed to tell something important about incompatibility
of [the slogan] "Make America Great Again" with neoliberalism without offending anybody. Which
is a pretty difficult thing to do.
Zingalles is just another Friedman-style market fundamentalist. Nothing new and nothing interesting.
Noah Smith is wrong here: "This idea is important because it meant that we shouldn't expect fiscal
stimulus to have much of an effect. Government checks are a temporary form of income, so Friedman's
theory predicts that it won't change spending patterns, as advocates such as John Maynard Keynes
believed."
Friedman's view about consumption demand is the same as the Life Cycle Model (Ando and Modligiani).
OK - these models do predict that tax rebates should not affect consumption. And yes there are
households who are borrower constrained so these rebates do impact their consumption.
But this is not the only form of fiscal stimulus. Infrastructure investment would increase
aggregate demand even under the Friedman view of consumption. This would hold even under the Barro-Ricardian
version of this theory. OK - John Cochrane is too stupid to know this. And I see Noah in his rush
to bash Milton Friedman has made the same mistake as Cochrane.
What Friedman got wrong is not including current income. People with high income spend a fraction
of that income and save the rest. Their demand is met, so the additional income mostly goes to
savings.
People with low income spend everything and still have unmet demands. Additional income for
them will go to meet those unmet demands (like fixing a toothache or replacing bald tires).
Friedman was biased against fiscal intervention in an economy and sought evidence to argue
against such policies
Our model for funding infrastructure is broken. Federal funding means project that are
most needed by cities can be overlooked while projects that would destroy cities are funded.
Federal infrastructure funding destroyed city neighborhoods leaving the neighboring areas degraded.
Meanwhile, necessary projects such as a new subway tunnel from NJ to Manhattan are blocked by
States who are ok if the city fails and growth moves to their side of the river.
Money should go directly to the cities. Infrastructure should be build to serve the people
who live, walk and work there, not to allow cars to drive through at high speeds as the engineers
propose. This infrastructure harms cities and becomes a future tax liability that cannot be met
if the built infrastructure it encourages is not valuable enough to support maintenance.
We are discovering that unlike our cities where structures can increase in value, strip malls
decline in value, often to worthlessness. Road building is increasingly mechanized and provides
less employment per project than in the past. Projects such as replacing leaking water pipes require
more labor.
Simon Wren Lewis leaves open the possibility that an increase in aggregate demand can increase
real GDP as we may not be at full employment (I'd change that from "may not be" to "are not")
but still comes out against tax cuts for the rich with this:
"There is a very strong case for more public sector investment on numerous grounds. But that
investment should go to where it is most needed and where it will be of most social benefit"
Re: Milton Friedman's Cherished Theory Is Laid to Rest - Bloomberg View
Friedman was not simply wrong. The key for understanding Friedman is that he was a political
hack, not a scientist.
His main achievement was creation (partially for money invested in him and Mont Pelerin Society
by financial oligarchy) of what is now called "neoliberal rationality": a pervert view of the
world, economics and social processes that now still dominates in the USA and most of Western
Europe. It is also a new mode of "govermentability".
Governmentality is distinguished from earlier forms of rule, in which national wealth is measured
as the size of territory or the personal fortune of the sovereign, by the recognition that national
economic well-being is tied to the rational management of the national population. Foucault defined
governmentality as:
"the ensemble formed by the institutions, procedures, analyses, and reflections, the calculations
and tactics that allow the exercise of this very specific albeit complex form of power, which
has as its target population, as its principle form of knowledge political economy and as its
technical means, apparatuses of security"
A liberal political order may harbor either liberal or Keynesian economic policies -- it
may lean in the direction of maximizing liberty (its politically "conservative" tilt) or of
maximizing equality (its politically "liberal" tilt), but in contemporary political parlance,
it is no more or less a liberal democracy because of one leaning or the other.
Indeed, the American convention of referring to advocates of the welfare state as political
liberals is especially peculiar, given that American conservatives generally hew more closely
to both the classical economic and the political doctrines of liberalism -- it turns the meaning
of liberalism in the direction of liberality rather than liberty.
For our purposes, what is crucial is that the liberalism in what has come to be called neoliberalism
refers to liberalism's economic variant, recuperating selected pre-Keynesian assumptions about
the generation of wealth and its distribution, rather than to liberalism as a political doctrine,
as a set of political institutions, or as political practices. The neo in neoliberalism,
however, establishes these principles on a significantly different analytic basis from those
set forth by Adam Smith, as will become clear below. Moreover, neoliberalism is not simply
a set of economic policies; it is not only about facilitating free trade, maximizing corporate
profits, and challenging welfarism.
Rather, neoliberalism carries a social analysis that, when deployed as a form of
governmentality, reaches from the soul of the citizen-subject to education policy to practices
of empire. Neoliberal rationality, while foregrounding the market, is not only or even primarily
focused on the economy; it involves extending and disseminating market values to all institutions
and social action, even as the market itself remains a distinctive player.
... ... ...
1. The political sphere, along with every other dimension of contemporary existence,
is submitted to an economic rationality; or, put the other way around, not only is the human
being configured exhaustively as homo economicus, but all dimensions of human life are cast
in terms of a market rationality. While this entails submitting every action and policy
to considerations of profitability, equally important is the production of all human and institutional
action as rational entrepreneurial action, conducted according to a calculus of utility, benefit,
or satisfaction against a microeconomic grid of scarcity, supply and demand, and moral value-neutrality.
Neoliberalism does not simply assume that all aspects of social, cultural, and political life
can be reduced to such a calculus; rather, it develops institutional practices and rewards
for enacting this vision. That is, through discourse and policy promulgating its criteria,
neoliberalism produces rational actors and imposes a market rationale for decision making in
all spheres.
Importantly, then, neoliberalism involves a normative rather than ontological claim about
the pervasiveness of economic rationality and it advocates the institution building, policies,
and discourse development appropriate to such a claim. Neoliberalism is a constructivist project:
it does not presume the ontological givenness of a thoroughgoing economic rationality for all
domains of society but rather takes as its task the development, dissemination, and institutionalization
of such a rationality. This point is further developed in (2) below.
2. In contrast with the notorious laissez-faire and human propensity to "truck and barter"
stressed by classical economic liberalism, neoliberalism does not conceive of either the market
itself or rational economic behavior as purely natural. Both are constructed-organized
by law and political institutions, and requiring political intervention and orchestration.
Far from flourishing when left alone, the economy must be directed, buttressed, and protected
by law and policy as well as by the dissemination of social norms designed to facilitate competition,
free trade, and rational economic action on the part of every member and institution of society.
In Lemke's account, "In the Ordo-liberal scheme, the market does not amount to a natural
economic reality, with intrinsic laws that the art of government must bear in mind and respect;
instead, the market can be constituted and kept alive only by dint of political interventions.
. . . [C]ompetition, too, is not a natural fact. . . . [T]his fundamental economic mechanism
can function only if support is forthcoming to bolster a series of conditions, and adherence
to the latter must consistently be guaranteed by legal measures" (193).
The neoliberal formulation of the state and especially of specific legal arrangements and decisions
as the precondition and ongoing condition of the market does not mean that the market is controlled
by the state but precisely the opposite. The market is the organizing and regulative principle
of the state and society, along three different lines:
The state openly responds to needs of the market, whether through monetary and fiscal
policy, immigration policy, the treatment of criminals, or the structure of public education.
In so doing, the state is no longer encumbered by the danger of incurring the legitimation
deficits predicted by 1970s social theorists and political economists such as Nicos Poulantzas,
Jürgen Habermas, and James O'Connor.6 Rather, neoliberal rationality extended to the state
itself indexes the state's success according to its ability to sustain and foster the market
and ties state legitimacy to such success. This is a new form of legitimation, one that
"founds a state," according to Lemke, and contrasts with the Hegelian and French revolutionary
notion of the constitutional state as the emergent universal representative of the people.
As Lemke describes Foucault's account of Ordo-liberal thinking, "economic liberty produces
the legitimacy for a form of sovereignty limited to guaranteeing economic activity . . .
a state that was no longer defined in terms of an historical mission but legitimated itself
with reference to economic growth" (196).
The state itself is enfolded and animated by market rationality: that is, not simply
profitability but a generalized calculation of cost and benefit becomes the measure of all
state practices. Political discourse on all matters is framed in entrepreneurial terms;
the state must not simply concern itself with the market but think and behave like a market
actor across all of its functions, including law. 7
Putting (a) and (b) together, the health and growth of the economy is the basis of
state legitimacy, both because the state is forthrightly responsible for the health of the
economy and because of the economic rationality to which state practices have been submitted.
Thus, "It's the economy, stupid" becomes more than a campaign slogan; rather, it expresses
the principle of the state's legitimacy and the basis for state action-from constitutional
adjudication and campaign finance reform to welfare and education policy to foreign policy,
including warfare and the organization of "homeland security."
3. The extension of economic rationality to formerly noneconomic domains and institutions
reaches individual conduct, or, more precisely, prescribes the citizen-subject of a neoliberal
order. Whereas classical liberalism articulated a distinction, and at times even a tension,
among the criteria for individual moral, associational, and economic actions (hence the striking
differences in tone, subject matter, and even prescriptions between Adam Smith's Wealth of
Nations and his Theory of Moral Sentiments), neoliberalism normatively constructs and interpellates
individuals as entrepreneurial actors in every sphere of life.
It figures individuals as rational, calculating creatures whose moral autonomy is measured
by their capacity for "self-care"-the ability to provide for their own needs and service their
own ambitions. In making the individual fully responsible for her- or himself, neoliberalism
equates moral responsibility with rational action; it erases the discrepancy between economic
and moral behavior by configuring morality entirely as a matter of rational deliberation about
costs, benefits, and consequences.
But in so doing, it carries responsibility for the self to new heights: the rationally
calculating individual bears full responsibility for the consequences of his or her action
no matter how severe the constraints on this action-for example, lack of skills, education,
and child care in a period of high unemployment and limited welfare benefits.
Correspondingly, a "mismanaged life," the neoliberal appellation for failure to navigate
impediments to prosperity, becomes a new mode of depoliticizing social and economic powers
and at the same time reduces political citizenship to an unprecedented degree of passivity
and political complacency.
The model neoliberal citizen is one who strategizes for her- or himself among various social,
political, and economic options, not one who strives with others to alter or organize these
options. A fully realized neoliberal citizenry would be the opposite of public-minded;
indeed, it would barely exist as a public. The body politic ceases to be a body but is rather
a group of individual entrepreneurs and consumers . . . which is, of course, exactly how
voters are addressed in most American campaign discourse.8
Other evidence for progress in the development of such a citizenry is not far from hand:
consider the market rationality permeating universities today, from admissions and recruiting
to the relentless consumer mentality of students as they consider university brand names, courses,
and services, from faculty raiding and pay scales to promotion criteria. 9
Or consider the way in which consequential moral lapses (of a sexual or criminal nature)
by politicians, business executives, or church and university administrators are so often apologized
for as "mistakes in judgment," implying that it was the calculation that was wrong, not the
act, actor, or rationale.
The state is not without a project in the making of the neoliberal subject. It attempts
to construct prudent subjects through policies that organize such prudence: this is the basis
of a range of welfare reforms such as workfare and single-parent penalties, changes in the
criminal code such as the "three strikes law," and educational voucher schemes.
Because neoliberalism casts rational action as a norm rather than an ontology, social policy
is the means by which the state produces subjects whose compass is set entirely by their rational
assessment of the costs and benefits of certain acts, whether those acts pertain to teen pregnancy,
tax fraud, or retirement planning. The neoliberal citizen is calculating rather than rule abiding,
a Benthamite rather than a Hobbesian.
The state is one of many sites framing the calculations leading to social behaviors that
keep costs low and productivity high. This mode of governmentality (techniques of governing
that exceed express state action and orchestrate the subject's conduct toward himor herself)
convenes a "free" subject who rationally deliberates about alternative courses of action, makes
choices, and bears responsibility for the consequences of these choices. In this way, Lemke
argues, "the state leads and controls subjects without being responsible for them"; as individual
"entrepreneurs" in every aspect of life, subjects become wholly responsible for their well-being
and citizenship is reduced to success in this entrepreneurship (201).
Neoliberal subjects are controlled through their freedom-not simply, as thinkers from the
Frankfurt School through Foucault have argued, because freedom within an order of domination
can be an instrument of that domination, but because of neoliberalism's moralization of the
consequences of this freedom. Such control also means that the withdrawal of the state from
certain domains, followed by the privatization of certain state functions, does not amount
to a dismantling of government but rather constitutes a technique of governing; indeed, it
is the signature technique of neoliberal governance, in which rational economic action suffused
throughout society replaces express state rule or provision.
Neoliberalism shifts "the regulatory competence of the state onto 'responsible,' 'rational'
individuals [with the aim of] encourag[ing] individuals to give their lives a specific entrepreneurial
form" (Lemke, 202).
4. Finally, the suffusion of both the state and the subject with economic rationality
has the effect of radically transforming and narrowing the criteria for good social policy
vis-à-vis classical liberal democracy. Not only must social policy meet profitability tests,
incite and unblock competition, and produce rational subjects, it obeys the entrepreneurial
principle of "equal inequality for all" as it "multiples and expands entrepreneurial forms
with the body social" (Lemke, 195). This is the principle that links the neoliberal governmentalization
of the state with that of the social and the subject.
Taken together, the extension of economic rationality to all aspects of thought and activity,
the placement of the state in forthright and direct service to the economy, the rendering of
the state tout court as an enterprise organized by market rationality, the production of the
moral subject as an entrepreneurial subject, and the construction of social policy according
to these criteria might appear as a more intensive rather than fundamentally new form of the
saturation of social and political realms by capital. That is, the political rationality of
neoliberalism might be read as issuing from a stage of capitalism that simply underscores Marx's
argument that capital penetrates and transforms every aspect of life-remaking everything in
its image and reducing every value and activity to its cold rationale.
All that would be new here is the flagrant and relentless submission of the state and the
individual, the church and the university, morality, sex, marriage, and leisure practices to
this rationale. Or better, the only novelty would be the recently achieved hegemony of rational
choice theory in the human sciences, self-represented as an independent and objective branch
of knowledge rather than an expression of the dominance of capital. Another reading that would
figure neoliberalism as continuous with the past would theorize it through Weber's rationalization
thesis rather than Marx's argument about capital.
The extension of market rationality to every sphere, and especially the reduction of
moral and political judgment to a cost-benefit calculus, would represent precisely the evisceration
of substantive values by instrumental rationality that Weber predicted as the future of a disenchanted
world. Thinking and judging are reduced to instrumental calculation in Weber's "polar night
of icy darkness"-there is no morality, no faith, no heroism, indeed no meaning outside the
market.
Julio -> Libezkova...
I agree with this. But I think it's extraordinarily wordy, and fails to emphasize the deification
of private property which is at the root of it.
Brown - who I haven't read much of but like what I have - sounds a lot like Lasch.
Brown:
"The extension of market rationality to every sphere, and especially the reduction of
moral and political judgment to a cost-benefit calculus, would represent precisely the evisceration
of substantive values by instrumental rationality that Weber predicted as the future of a disenchanted
world. Thinking and judging are reduced to instrumental calculation in Weber's "polar night
of icy darkness"-there is no morality, no faith, no heroism, indeed no meaning outside the
market."
Lasch in Revolt of the Elites:
"... Individuals cannot learn to speak for themselves at all, much less come to an intelligent
understanding of their happiness and well-being, in a world in which there are no values except
those of the market.... The market tends to universalize itself. It does not easily coexist
with institutions that operate according to principles that are antithetical to itself: schools
and universities, newspapers and magazines, charities, families. Sooner or later the market
tends to absorb them all. It puts an almost irresistible pressure on every activity to justify
itself in the only terms it recognizes: to become a business proposition, to pay its own way,
to show black ink on the bottom line. It turns news into entertainment, scholarship into professional
careerism, social work into the scientific management of poverty. Inexorably it remodels every
institution in its own image."
"... "The idea of a wealth effect doesn't stand up to economic data. The stock market boom in the late 1990s helped increase the wealth of Americans, but it didn't produce a significant change in consumption, according to David Backus, a professor of economics and finance at New York University. Before the stock market reversed itself, "you didn't see a big increase in consumption," says Backus. "And when it did reverse itself, you didn't see a big decrease." ..."
"... Yet that didn't stop Bernanke from citing the Wealth Effect as one of the justifications for trickle down monetary policy: "higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion." https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/other/o_bernanke20101105a.htm ..."
"... The 'wealth effect' is just more poppycock, neoliberal theory designed to enrich the wealthy and deprive others of prosperity. ..."
Milton is almost as controversial as Marx. Marx had a more
realistic, a more grounded world-view. Marx knew damn-well
that his ideals were just that. That we should all share in
the fruits of our combined labor was to Marx, a way of
achieving perfection. Pure idealism and he knew.
Friedman largely believed his own BS, and turned a blind eye
to most moral arguments. This, to me, is the heartless
neoliberal that some our fellow posters are so oft to
mention.
I have no data and no theory to offer against Friedman's
hypothesis, but it sure feels like there is good reason to
doubt it.
The reason I say so is that this mental behavior of
converting income and expense streams into present value
sums, making long term assets and liabilities on the current
personal balance sheet, is extremely rare in my experience.
I'm not talking about just among regular working Joe's
either. I'm talking about people with plenty of excess
income: fund managers and CEOs. If anyone should be able to
habitually do the math it should be these guys. But let me
assert, if you want to rub elbows in that crowd, a nearly
certain way to distinguish yourself is to walk into the room
with these PVs at your fingertips. You may be totally alone.
The idea that less endowed people will do it is just
giggles.
Further, it does not take much thought in this direction
to analyze the expected net worth position of people along
the existing income distribution. It would appear the income
level at which one may be able to expect to fund lifetime
liabilities is near the 80th percentile. That people below
that level may be able to smooth their required consumption
though temporary borrowing is just more giggles.
What's curious here is that while Friedman (and many
policymakers) may assume that most people's consumption isn't
affected by how much they earn, they are totally convinced
that their spending levels are immediately and dramatically
affected by changes in their wealth!
The wealth effect is
one of the pillars of trickle down monetary policy.
Proponents claim that lower interest rates drive asset prices
up, making the wealthy FEEL wealthier again...and presto they
start consuming again, igniting economic growth.
It would be very interesting to chart the course of
wealthy people's spending in response to changes in income
and wealth. The results may prove Friedman right at the upper
end of the income scale--the wealthy, having more than they
know what to do with, may well ride out stormy periods by
maintaining their consumption via borrowing and sale of some
assets.
If Friedman's theory does apply to wealthy people, it
would undermine a fundamental justification for trickle down
monetary policy and help explain why the economic recovery
has been so anemic---policy decisions where targeted at the
wrong end of the income scale...at people who wouldn't boost
consumption (the wealthy) instead of at those who would boost
consumption.
Once again, it would appear that deeply entrenched
economic 'theories' are designed to help the
wealthy...without much empirical evidence.
I think the fundamental pillar of such "thinking" is:
-
Poor people are motivated to work and be virtuous by their
lack of money, so they must be kept hungry;
- Rich people are motivated to work and be virtuous by money,
so they must be kept rich.
"The idea of a wealth effect doesn't stand up to economic
data. The stock market boom in the late 1990s helped increase
the wealth of Americans, but it didn't produce a significant
change in consumption, according to David Backus, a professor
of economics and finance at New York University. Before the
stock market reversed itself, "you didn't see a big increase
in consumption," says Backus. "And when it did reverse
itself, you didn't see a big decrease."
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/hey_wait_a_minute/2008/06/debunking_the_wealth_effect.html
Yet that didn't stop Bernanke from citing the Wealth
Effect as one of the justifications for trickle down monetary
policy: "higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and
help increase confidence, which can also spur spending.
Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits
that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic
expansion."
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/other/o_bernanke20101105a.htm
The 'wealth effect' is just more poppycock, neoliberal
theory designed to enrich the wealthy and deprive others of
prosperity.
Yet pgl subscribes to the theory!
As expected, promoters of trickle down monetary policy defend
the debunked wealth effect as an primary tool for stimulating
economic growth...but reject Noah Smith's point that poor
people reduce consumption during recessions, making them a
more reasonable policy target for restoring consumption
during demand deficient times.
"... Correspondingly, a "mismanaged life," the neoliberal appellation for failure to navigate impediments to prosperity, becomes a new mode of depoliticizing social and economic powers and at the same time reduces political citizenship to an unprecedented degree of passivity and political complacency. ..."
"... as individual "entrepreneurs" in every aspect of life, subjects become wholly responsible for their well-being and citizenship is reduced to success in this entrepreneurship ..."
"... That is, the political rationality of neoliberalism might be read as issuing from a stage of capitalism that simply underscores Marx's argument that capital penetrates and transforms every aspect of life-remaking everything in its image and reducing every value and activity to its cold rationale. ..."
"... neoliberalism entails the erosion of oppositional political, moral, or subjective claims located outside capitalist rationality yet inside liberal democratic society, that is, the erosion of institutions, venues, and values organized by nonmarket rationalities in democracies. ..."
"... Market rationality knows no culture or country, and administrators are, as the economists say, fungible. ..."
"... Together these phenomena suggest a transformation of American liberal democracy into a political and social form for which we do not yet have a name, a form organized by a combination of neoliberal governmentality and imperial world politics, shaped in the short run by global economic and security crises. They indicate a form in which an imperial agenda is able to take hold precisely because the domestic soil has been loosened for it by neoliberal rationality. ..."
"... A potentially permanent "state of emergency" combined with an infinitely expandable rhetoric of patriotism overtly legitimates undercutting the Bill of Rights and legitimates as well abrogation of conventional democratic principles in setting foreign policy, principles that include respect for nation-state sovereignty and reasoned justifications for war. But behind these rhetorics there is another layer of discourse facilitating the dismantling of liberal democratic institutions and practices: a governmentality of neoliberalism that eviscerates nonmarket morality and thus erodes the root of democracy in principle at the same time that it raises the status of profit and expediency as the criteria for policy making. ..."
"... Still, if we are slipping from liberalism to fascism, and if radical democracy or socialism is nowhere on the political horizon, don't we have to defend liberal democratic institutions and values? ..."
It is commonplace to speak of the present regime in the United States as a neoconservative one, and
to cast as a consolidated "neocon" project present efforts to intensify U.S. military capacity, increase
U.S. global hegemony, dismantle the welfare state, retrench civil liberties, eliminate the right to
abortion and affirmative action, re-Christianize the state, deregulate corporations, gut environmental
protections, reverse progressive taxation, reduce education spending while increasing prison budgets,
and feather the nests of the rich while criminalizing the poor. I do not contest the existence of a
religious-political project known as neoconservatism or challenge the appropriateness of understanding
many of the links between these objectives in terms of a neoconservative agenda. However, I want to
think to one side of this agenda in order to consider our current predicament in terms of a neoliberal
political rationality, a rationality that exceeds particular positions on particular issues and that
undergirds important features of the Clinton decade as well as the Reagan-Bush years. Further, I want
to consider the way that this rationality is emerging as governmentality-a mode of governance encompassing
but not limited to the state, and one that produces subjects, forms of citizenship and behavior, and
a new organization of the social.1
Economic Liberalism, Political Liberalism, and What Is the Neo in Neoliberalism
In ordinary parlance, neoliberalism refers to the repudiation of Keynesian welfare state economics
and the ascendance of the Chicago School of political economy-von Hayek, Friedman, and others. In popular
I usage, neoliberalism is equated with a radically free market: maximized competition and free trade
achieved through economic deregulation, elimination of tariffs, and a range of monetary and social policies
favorable to business and indifferent toward poverty, social deracination, cultural decimation, long-term
resource depletion, and environmental destruction. Neoliberalism is most often invoked in relation to
the Third World, referring either to NAFTA-like schemes that increase the vulnerability of poor nations
to the vicissitudes of globalization or to International Monetary Fund and World Bank policies that,
through financing packages attached to "restructuring" requirements, yank the chains of every aspect
of Third World existence, including political institutions and social formations. For progressives,
neoliberalism is thus a pejorative not only because it conjures economic policies that sustain or deepen
local poverty and the subordination of peripheral to core nations, but also because it is compatible
with, and sometimes even productive of, authoritarian, despotic, paramilitaristic, and corrupt state
forms as well as agents within civil society.
While these referents capture important effects of neoliberalism, they also reduce neoliberalism
to a bundle of economic policies with inadvertent political and social consequences: they fail to address
the political rationality that both organizes these policies and reaches beyond the market. Moreover,
these referents do not capture the neo in neoliberalism, tending instead to treat the contemporary phenomenon
as little more than a revival of classical liberal political economy. Finally, they obscure the specifically
political register of neoliberalism in the First World: that is, its powerful erosion of liberal democratic
institutions and practices in places like the United States.
My concern in this essay is with these neglected dimensions of neoliberalism.
One of the more incisive accounts of neoliberal political rationality comes from a surprising quarter:
Michel Foucault is not generally heralded as a theorist of liberalism or of political economy. Yet Foucault's
1978 and 1979 Collège de France lectures, long unpublished,2 consisted of his critical analysis of two
groups of neoliberal economists: the Ordo-liberal school in postwar Germany (so named because its members,
originally members of the Freiburg School, published mainly in the journal Ordo) and the Chicago School
that arose midcentury in the United States. Thanks to the German sociologist Thomas Lemke, we have an
excellent summary and interpretation of Foucault's lectures on neoliberalism; in what follows I will
draw extensively from Lemke's work.3
It may be helpful, before beginning a consideration of neoliberalism as a political rationality,
to mark the conventional difference between political and economic liberalism-a difference especially
confusing for Americans for whom "liberal" tends to signify a progressive political viewpoint and, in
particular, support for the welfare state and other New Deal institutions, along with relatively high
levels of political and legal intervention in the social sphere.4 In addition, given the contemporary
phenomena of both neoconservatism and neoliberalism, and the association of both with the political
right, ours is a time of often bewildering political nomenclature.5
Briefly, then, in economic thought,
liberalism contrasts with mercantilism on one side and Keynesianism or socialism on the other; its classical
version refers to a maximization of free trade and competition achieved by minimum interference from
political institutions. In the history of political thought, while individual liberty remains a touchstone,
liberalism signifies an order in which the state exists to secure the freedom of individuals on a formally
egalitarian basis.
A liberal political order may harbor either liberal or Keynesian economic policies-it may lean in
the direction of maximizing liberty (its politically "conservative" tilt) or of maximizing equality
(its politically "liberal" tilt), but in contemporary political parlance, it is no more or less a liberal
democracy because of one leaning or the other. Indeed, the American convention of referring to advocates
of the welfare state as political liberals is especially peculiar, given that American conservatives
generally hew more closely to both the classical economic and the political doctrines of liberalism-it
turns the meaning of liberalism in the direction of liberality rather than liberty. For our purposes,
what is crucial is that the liberalism in what has come to be called neoliberalism refers to liberalism's
economic variant, recuperating selected pre-Keynesian assumptions about the generation of wealth and
its distribution, rather than to liberalism as a political doctrine, as a set of political institutions,
or as political practices. The neo in neoliberalism, however, establishes these principles on a significantly
different analytic basis from those set forth by Adam Smith, as will become clear below. Moreover, neoliberalism
is not simply a set of economic policies; it is not only about facilitating free trade, maximizing corporate
profits, and challenging welfarism. Rather, neoliberalism carries a social analysis that, when deployed
as a form of governmentality, reaches from the soul of the citizen-subject to education policy to practices
of empire. Neoliberal rationality, while foregrounding the market, is not only or even primarily focused
on the economy; it involves extending and disseminating market values to all institutions and social
action, even as the market itself remains a distinctive player. This essay explores the political implications
of neoliberal rationality for liberal democracy-the implications of the political rationality corresponding
to, legitimating, and legitimated by the neoliberal turn.
While Lemke, following Foucault, is careful to mark some of the differences between Ordo-liberal
thought and its successor and radicalizer, the Chicago School, I will be treating contemporary neoliberal
political rationality without attending to these differences in some of its source material. A rich
genealogy of neoliberalism as it is currently practiced-one that mapped and contextualized the contributions
of the two schools of political economy, traced the ways that rational choice theory differentially
adhered and evolved in the various social sciences and their governmental applications, and described
the interplay of all these currents with developments in capital over the past half century-would be
quite useful. But this essay is not such a genealogy. Rather, my aim is to consider our current political
predicament in terms of neoliberal political rationality, whose chief characteristics are enumerated
below.
1. The political sphere, along with every other dimension of contemporary existence, is submitted
to an economic rationality; or, put the other way around, not only is the human being configured exhaustively
as homo oeconomicus, but all dimensions of human life are cast in terms of a market rationality. While
this entails submitting every action and policy to considerations of profitability, equally important
is the production of all human and institutional action as rational entrepreneurial action, conducted
according to a calculus of utility, benefit, or satisfaction against a microeconomic grid of scarcity,
supply and demand, and moral value-neutrality. Neoliberalism does not simply assume that all aspects
of social, cultural, and political life can be reduced to such a calculus; rather, it develops institutional
practices and rewards for enacting this vision. That is, through discourse and policy promulgating its
criteria, neoliberalism produces rational actors and imposes a market rationale for decision making
in all spheres. Importantly, then, neoliberalism involves a normative rather than ontological claim
about the pervasiveness of economic rationality and it advocates the institution building, policies,
and discourse development appropriate to such a claim. Neoliberalism is a constructivist project: it
does not presume the ontological givenness of a thoroughgoing economic rationality for all domains of
society but rather takes as its task the development, dissemination, and institutionalization of such
a rationality. This point is further developed in (2) below.
2. In contrast with the notorious laissez-faire and human propensity to "truck and barter" stressed
by classical economic liberalism, neoliberalism does not conceive of either the market itself or rational
economic behavior as purely natural. Both are constructed-organized by law and political institutions,
and requiring political intervention and orchestration. Far from flourishing when left alone, the economy
must be directed, buttressed, and protected by law and policy as well as by the dissemination of social
norms designed to facilitate competition, free trade, and rational economic action on the part of every
member and institution of society. In Lemke's account, "In the Ordo-liberal scheme, the market does
not amount to a natural economic reality, with intrinsic laws that the art of government must bear in
mind and respect; instead, the market can be constituted and kept alive only by dint of political interventions.
. . . [C]ompetition, too, is not a natural fact. . . . [T]his fundamental economic mechanism can function
only if support is forthcoming to bolster a series of conditions, and adherence to the latter must consistently
be guaranteed by legal measures" (193).
The neoliberal formulation of the state and especially of specific legal arrangements and decisions
as the precondition and ongoing condition of the market does not mean that the market is controlled
by the state but precisely the opposite. The market is the organizing and regulative principle of the
state and society, along three different lines: a. The state openly responds to needs of the market,
whether through monetary and fiscal policy, immigration policy, the treatment of criminals, or the structure
of public education. In so doing, the state is no longer encumbered by the danger of incurring the legitimation
deficits predicted by 1970s social theorists and political economists such as Nicos Poulantzas, Jürgen
Habermas, and James O'Connor.6 Rather, neoliberal rationality extended to the state itself indexes the
state's success according to its ability to sustain and foster the market and ties state legitimacy
to such success. This is a new form of legitimation, one that "founds a state," according to Lemke,
and contrasts with the Hegelian and French revolutionary notion of the constitutional state as the emergent
universal representative of the people. As Lemke describes Foucault's account of Ordo-liberal thinking,
"economic liberty produces the legitimacy for a form of sovereignty limited to guaranteeing economic
activity . . . a state that was no longer defined in terms of an historical mission but legitimated
itself with reference to economic growth" (196).
b. The state itself is enfolded and animated by market rationality: that is, not simply profitability
but a generalized calculation of cost and benefit becomes the measure of all state practices. Political
discourse on all matters is framed in entrepreneurial terms; the state must not simply concern itself
with the market but think and behave like a market actor across all of its functions, including law.
7
c. Putting (a) and (b) together, the health and growth of the economy is the basis of state legitimacy,
both because the state is forthrightly responsible for the health of the economy and because of the
economic rationality to which state practices have been submitted. Thus, "It's the economy, stupid"
becomes more than a campaign slogan; rather, it expresses the principle of the state's legitimacy and
the basis for state action-from constitutional adjudication and campaign finance reform to welfare and
education policy to foreign policy, including warfare and the organization of "homeland security."
3. The extension of economic rationality to formerly noneconomic domains and institutions reaches
individual conduct, or, more precisely, prescribes the citizen-subject of a neoliberal order. Whereas
classical liberalism articulated a distinction, and at times even a tension, among the criteria for
individual moral, associational, and economic actions (hence the striking differences in tone, subject
matter, and even prescriptions between Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations and his Theory of Moral Sentiments),
neoliberalism normatively constructs and interpellates individuals as entrepreneurial actors in every
sphere of life.
It figures individuals as rational, calculating creatures whose moral autonomy is measured
by their capacity for "self-care"-the ability to provide for their own needs and service their own ambitions.
In making the individual fully responsible for her- or himself, neoliberalism equates moral responsibility
with rational action; it erases the discrepancy between economic and moral behavior by configuring morality
entirely as a matter of rational deliberation about costs, benefits, and consequences.
But in so doing,
it carries responsibility for the self to new heights: the rationally calculating individual bears full
responsibility for the consequences of his or her action no matter how severe the constraints on this
action-for example, lack of skills, education, and child care in a period of high unemployment and limited
welfare benefits. Correspondingly, a "mismanaged life," the neoliberal appellation for failure to navigate
impediments to prosperity, becomes a new mode of depoliticizing social and economic powers and at the
same time reduces political citizenship to an unprecedented degree of passivity and political complacency.
The model neoliberal citizen is one who strategizes for her- or himself among various social, political,
and economic options, not one who strives with others to alter or organize these options. Afully realized
neoliberal citizenry would be the opposite of public-minded; indeed, it would barely exist as a public.
The body politic ceases to be a body but is rather a group of individual entrepreneurs and consumers
. . . which is, of course, exactly how voters are addressed in most American campaign discourse.8 Other
evidence for progress in the development of such a citizenry is not far from hand: consider the market
rationality permeating universities today, from admissions and recruiting to the relentless consumer
mentality of students as they consider university brand names, courses, and services, from faculty raiding
and pay scales to promotion criteria.9 Or consider the way in which consequential moral lapses (of a
sexual or criminal nature) by politicians, business executives, or church and university administrators
are so often apologized for as "mistakes in judgment," implying that it was the calculation that was
wrong, not the act, actor, or rationale. The state is not without a project in the making of the neoliberal
subject. It attempts to construct prudent subjects through policies that organize such prudence: this
is the basis of a range of welfare reforms such as workfare and single-parent penalties, changes in
the criminal code such as the "three strikes law," and educational voucher schemes. Because neoliberalism
casts rational action as a norm rather than an ontology, social policy is the means by which the state
produces subjects whose compass is set entirely by their rational assessment of the costs and benefits
of certain acts, whether those acts pertain to teen pregnancy, tax fraud, or retirement planning. The
neoliberal citizen is calculating rather than rule abiding, a Benthamite rather than a Hobbesian.
The state is one of many sites framing the calculations leading to social behaviors that keep costs
low and productivity high. This mode of governmentality (techniques of governing that exceed express
state action and orchestrate the subject's conduct toward himor herself) convenes a "free" subject who
rationally deliberates about alternative courses of action, makes choices, and bears responsibility
for the consequences of these choices. In this way, Lemke argues, "the state leads and controls subjects
without being responsible for them"; as individual "entrepreneurs" in every aspect of life, subjects
become wholly responsible for their well-being and citizenship is reduced to success in this entrepreneurship
(201).
Neoliberal subjects are controlled through their freedom-not simply, as thinkers from the Frankfurt
School through Foucault have argued, because freedom within an order of domination can be an instrument
of that domination, but because of neoliberalism's moralization of the consequences of this freedom.
Such control also means that the withdrawal of the state from certain domains, followed by the privatization
of certain state functions, does not amount to a dismantling of government but rather constitutes a
technique of governing; indeed, it is the signature technique of neoliberal governance, in which rational
economic action suffused throughout society replaces express state rule or provision. Neoliberalism
shifts "the regulatory competence of the state onto 'responsible,' 'rational' individuals [with the
aim of] encourag[ing] individuals to give their lives a specific entrepreneurial form" (Lemke, 202).
4. Finally, the suffusion of both the state and the subject with economic rationality has the effect
of radically transforming and narrowing the criteria for good social policy vis-à-vis classical liberal
democracy. Not only must social policy meet profitability tests, incite and unblock competition, and
produce rational subjects, it obeys the entrepreneurial principle of "equal inequality for all" as it
"multiples and expands entrepreneurial forms with the body social" (Lemke, 195). This is the principle
that links the neoliberal governmentalization of the state with that of the social and the subject.
Taken together, the extension of economic rationality to all aspects of thought and activity, the
placement of the state in forthright and direct service to the economy, the rendering of the state tout
court as an enterprise organized by market rationality, the production of the moral subject as an entrepreneurial
subject, and the construction of social policy according to these criteria might appear as a more intensive
rather than fundamentally new form of the saturation of social and political realms by capital. That
is, the political rationality of neoliberalism might be read as issuing from a stage of capitalism that
simply underscores Marx's argument that capital penetrates and transforms every aspect of life-remaking
everything in its image and reducing every value and activity to its cold rationale.
All that would
be new here is the flagrant and relentless submission of the state and the individual, the church and
the university, morality, sex, marriage, and leisure practices to this rationale. Or better, the only
novelty would be the recently achieved hegemony of rational choice theory in the human sciences, self-represented
as an independent and objective branch of knowledge rather than an expression of the dominance of capital.
Another reading that would figure neoliberalism as continuous with the past would theorize it through
Weber's rationalization thesis rather than Marx's argument about capital. The extension of market rationality
to every sphere, and especially the reduction of moral and political judgment to a cost-benefit calculus,
would represent precisely the evisceration of substantive values by instrumental rationality that Weber
predicted as the future of a disenchanted world. Thinking and judging are reduced to instrumental calculation
in Weber's "polar night of icy darkness"-there is no morality, no faith, no heroism, indeed no meaning
outside the market.
Yet invaluable as Marx's theory of capital and Weber's theory of rationalization are in understanding
certain aspects of neoliberalism, neither brings into view the historical-institutional rupture it signifies,
the form of governmentality it replaces and the form it inaugurates, and hence the modalities of resistance
it renders outmoded and those that must be developed if it is to be effectively challenged.
Neoliberalism
is not an inevitable historical development of capital and instrumental rationality; it is not the unfolding
of laws of capital or of instrumental rationality suggested by a Marxist or Weberian analysis but represents
instead a new and contingent organization and operation of both. Moreover, neither analysis articulates
the shift neoliberalism heralds from relatively differentiated moral, economic, and political rationalities
and venues in liberal democratic orders to their discursive and practical integration. Neoliberal governmentality
undermines the relative autonomy of certain institutions-law, elections, the police, the public sphere-from
one another and from the market, an independence that formerly sustained an interval and a tension between
a capitalist political economy and a liberal democratic political system. The implications of this transformation
are significant. Herbert Marcuse worried about the loss of a dialectical opposition within capitalism
when it "delivers the goods"-that is, when, by the mid–twentieth century, a relatively complacent middle
class had taken the place of the hardlaboring impoverished masses Marx depicted as the negating contradiction
to the concentrated wealth of capital-but neoliberalism entails the erosion of oppositional political,
moral, or subjective claims located outside capitalist rationality yet inside liberal democratic society,
that is, the erosion of institutions, venues, and values organized by nonmarket rationalities in democracies.
When democratic principles of governance, civil codes, and even religious morality are submitted to
economic calculation, when no value or good stands outside of this calculus, then sources of opposition
to, and mere modulation of, capitalist rationality disappear. This reminds us that however much a left
analysis has identified a liberal political order with legitimating, cloaking, and mystifying the stratifications
of society achieved by capitalism (and achieved as well by racial, sexual, and gender superordinations),
it is also the case that liberal democratic principles of governance- liberalism as a political doctrine-have
functioned as something of an antagonist to these stratifications.
As Marx himself argued in "On the
Jewish Question," formal political principles of equality and freedom (with their attendant promises
of individual autonomy and dignity) figure an alternative vision of humanity and alternative social
and moral referents to those of the capitalist order within which they are asserted. This is the Janus-face
or at least Janus-potential of liberal democracy vis-à-vis a capitalist economy: while liberal democracy
encodes, reflects, and legitimates capitalist social relations, it simultaneously resists, counters,
and tempers them.
Put simply, what liberal democracy has provided over the past two centuries is a modest ethical gap
between economy and polity. Even as liberal democracy converges with many capitalist values (property
rights, individualism, Hobbesian assumptions underneath all contracts, etc.), the formal distinction
it establishes between moral and political principles on the one hand and the economic order on the
other has also served to insulate citizens against the ghastliness of life exhaustively ordered by the
market and measured by market values. It is this gap that a neoliberal political rationality closes
as it submits every aspect of political and social life to economic calculation: asking not, for example,
what liberal constitutionalism stands for, what moral or political values it protects and preserves,
but rather what efficacy or profitability constitutionalism promotes . . . or interdicts.
Liberal democracy cannot be submitted to neoliberal political governmentality and survive. There
is nothing in liberal democracy's basic institutions or values-from free elections, representative democracy,
and individual liberties equally distributed to modest power-sharing or even more substantive political
participation-that inherently meets the test of serving economic competitiveness or inherently withstands
a cost-benefit analysis. And it is liberal democracy that is going under in the present moment, even
as the flag of American "democracy" is being planted everywhere it can find or create soft ground. (That
"democracy" is the rubric under which so much antidemocratic imperial and domestic policy is enacted
suggests that we are in an interregnum-or, more precisely, that neoliberalism borrows extensively from
the old regime to legitimate itself even as it also develops and disseminates new codes of legitimacy.
More about this below.) Nor is liberal democracy a temporary casualty of recent events or of a neoconservative
agenda. As the foregoing account of neoliberal governmentality suggests, while post-9/11 international
and domestic policy may have both hastened and highlighted the erosion of liberal democratic institutions
and principles, this erosion is not simply the result of a national security strategy or even of the
Bush administration's unprecedented indifference to the plight of the poor, civil liberties, law valued
as principle rather than tactic, or conventional liberal democratic criteria for legitimate foreign
policy.10 My argument here is twofold. First, neoliberal rationality has not caused but rather has facilitated
the dismantling of democracy during the current national security crisis. Democratic values and institutions
are trumped by a cost-benefit and efficiency rationale for practices ranging from government secrecy
(even government lying) to the curtailment of civil liberties. Second, the post-9/11 period has brought
the ramifications of neoliberal rationality into sharp focus, largely through practices and policies
that progressives assail as hypocrisies, lies, or contradictions but that may be better understood as
neoliberal policies and actions taking shape under the legitimating cloth of a liberal democratic discourse
increasingly void of substance.
The Bush administration's imperial adventures in Afghanistan and Iraq clearly borrowed extensively
from the legitimating rhetoric of democracy. Not only were both wars undertaken as battles for "our
way of life" against regimes said to harbor enemies (terrorists) or dangers (weapons of mass destruction)
to that way of life, but both violations of national sovereignty were justified by the argument that
democracy could and ought to take shape in those places-each nation is said to need liberation from
brutal and despotic rule. The standard left criticism of the first justification is that "our way of
life" is more seriously threatened by a politics of imperialism and by certain policies of homeland
security than by these small nations. But this criticism ignores the extent to which "our way of life"
is being figured not in a classically liberal democratic but in a neoliberal idiom: that is, as the
ability of the entrepreneurial subject and state to rationally plot means and ends and the ability of
the state to secure the conditions, at home and abroad, for a market rationality and subjectivity by
removing their impediments (whether Islamic fundamentalism or excessive and arbitrary state sovereignty
in the figure of Saddam Hussein). Civil liberties are perfectly expendable within this conception of
"our way of life"; unlike property rights, they are largely irrelevant to homo oeconomicus. Their attenuation
or elimination does not falsify the project of protecting democracy in its neoliberal mode.
The Left criticized the second justification, that the United States could or ought to liberate Afghanistan
from the Taliban and Iraq from Hussein, as both hypocritical (the United States had previously funded
and otherwise propped up both regimes) and disingenuous (U.S. foreign policy has never rested on the
principle of developing democracy and was not serious about the project in these settings). Again, however,
translated into neoliberal terms, "democracy," here or there, does not signify a set of independent
political institutions and civic practices comprising equality, freedom, autonomy and the principle
of popular sovereignty but rather indicates only a state and subjects organized by market rationality.
Indeed, democracy could even be understood as a code word for availability to this rationality; removal
of the Taliban and Baath party pave the way to that availability, and democracy is simply the name of
the regime, conforming to neoliberal requirements, that must replace them. When Paul Bremer, the U.S.-appointed
interim governor of Iraq, declared on May 26, 2003 (just weeks after the sacking of Baghdad and four
days after the UN lifted economic sanctions), that Iraq was "open for business," he made clear exactly
how democracy would take shape in post- Saddam Iraq. Duty-free imported goods poured into the country,
finishing off many local Iraqi businesses already damaged by the war. Multinationals tumbled over themselves
to get a piece of the action, and foreign direct investment to replace and privatize state industry
was described by the corporate executives advising the Bush administration as the "answer to all of
Iraq's problems."11 The question of democratic institutions, as Bremer made clear by scrapping early
plans to form an interim Iraqi government in favor of installing his own team of advisers, was at best
secondary to the project of privatizing large portions of the economy and outsourcing the business of
policing a society in rubble, chaos, and terror occasioned by the combination of ongoing military skirmishes
and armed local gangs.12
It is not news that replacements for the Taliban and the Baath regimes need not be rights-based,
formally egalitarian, representative, or otherwise substantively democratic in order to serve the purposes
of global capitalism or the particular geopolitical interests of the United States. Nor is it news that
the replacements of these regimes need not be administered by the Afghans or Iraqis themselves to satisfy
American and global capitalist purposes and interests, though the residues of old-fashioned democracy
inside the legitimation project of neoliberalism make even puppet or faux rule by an appointed governing
council, or by officials elected in severely compromised election conditions, ideologically preferable
to full-fledged directorship by the American occupation. What is striking, however, is the boldness
of a raw market approach to political problem solving, the extent to which radical privatization schemes
and a flourishing market economy built on foreign investment are offered not simply as the path to democracy
but as the name and the measure of democracy in these nations, a naming and measuring first appearing
in post-1989 Eastern Europe a decade earlier. Not only are democratic institutions largely irrelevant-
and at times even impediments-to neoliberal governmentality, but the success of such governmentality
does not depend on the question of whether it is locally administered or externally imposed.
Market
rationality knows no culture or country, and administrators are, as the economists say, fungible. Indeed,
at this juncture in the displacement of liberal democracy by neoliberal governmentality, the question
is how much legitimacy neoliberal governance requires from a democratic vocabulary-how much does neoliberalism
have to cloak itself in liberal democratic discourse and work with liberal democratic institutions?
This is less a theoretical than a historical-empirical question about how deeply and extensively neoliberal
rationality has taken hold as ideology, that is, how much and where neoliberal governance can legitimate
itself in its own terms, without borrowing from other discourses. (Neoliberalism can become dominant
as governmentality without being dominant as ideology-the former refers to governing practices and the
latter to a popular order of belief that may or may not be fully in line with the former, and that may
even be a site of resistance to it.)
Clearly, a rhetoric of democracy and the shell of liberal democratic
institutions remain more important in the imperial heartland than in recently "liberated" or conquered
societies with few if any democratic traditions of legitimacy. However, the fact that George W. Bush
retains the support of the majority of the American people, despite his open flaunting of democratic
principles amid a failing economy and despite, too, evidence that the public justification for invading
Iraq relied on cooked intelligence, suggests that neoliberalism has taken deep hold in the homeland.
Particularly striking is the number of pundits who have characterized this willful deceit of the people
as necessary rather than criminal, as a means to a rational end, thereby reminding us that one of the
more dangerous features of neoliberal evisceration of a non-market morality lies in undercutting the
basis for judging government actions by any criteria other than expedience.13
Just as neoliberal governmentality
reduces the tension historically borne by the state between democratic values and the needs of capital
as it openly weds the state to capital and resignifies democracy as ubiquitous entrepreneurialism, so
neoliberalism also smooths an old wrinkle in the fabric of liberal democratic foreign policy between
domestic political values and international interests. During the cold war, political progressives could
use American sanctimony about democracy to condemn international actions that propped up or installed
authoritarian regimes and overthrew popularly elected leaders in the Third World. The divergence between
strategic international interests and democratic ideology produced a potential legitimation problem
for foreign policy, especially as applied to Southeast Asia and Central and Latin America. Neoliberalism,
by redefining democracy as thoroughgoing market rationality in state and society, a redefinition abetted
by the postcommunist "democratization" process in Eastern Europe, largely eliminates that problem.
Certainly human rights talk is ubiquitous in global democracy discourse, but not since Jimmy Carter's
ill-fated efforts to make human rights a substantive dimension of foreign policy have they served as
more than window dressing for neoliberal adventures in democracy. Mourning Liberal Democracy An assault
on liberal democratic values and institutions has been plainly evident in recent events: civil liberties
undermined by the USA Patriot Acts and the Total Information Awareness (later renamed Total Terror Awareness)
scheme, Oakland police shooting wood and rubber bullets at peaceful antiwar protesters, a proposed Oregon
law to punish all civil disobedience as terrorism (replete with twenty five-year jail terms), and McCarthyite
deployments of patriotism to suppress ordinary dissent and its iconography. It is evident as well in
the staging of aggressive imperial wars and ensuing occupations along with the continued dismantling
of the welfare state and the progressive taxation schemes already diluted by the Reagan, G.H.W. Bush,
and Clinton administrations. It has been more subtly apparent in "softer" events, such as the de-funding
of public education that led eighty four Oregon school districts to sheer almost a month off the school
year in spring 2003 and delivered provisional pink slips to thousands of California teachers at the
end of the 2002–03 academic year.14 Or consider the debate about whether antiwar protests constituted
unacceptable costs for a financially strapped cities-even many critics of current U.S. foreign policy
expressed anger at peaceful civil disobedients over the expense and disruption they caused, implying
that the value of public opinion and protest should be measured against its dollar cost.15
Together
these phenomena suggest a transformation of American liberal democracy into a political and social form
for which we do not yet have a name, a form organized by a combination of neoliberal governmentality
and imperial world politics, shaped in the short run by global economic and security crises. They indicate
a form in which an imperial agenda is able to take hold precisely because the domestic soil has been
loosened for it by neoliberal rationality.
This form is not fascism or totalitarian as we have known them historically, nor are these labels
likely to prove helpful in identifying or criticizing it.16 Rather, this is a political condition in
which the substance of many of the significant features of constitutional and representative democracy
have been gutted, jettisoned, or end-run, even as they continue to be promulgated ideologically, serving
as a foil and shield for their undoing and for the doing of death elsewhere. These features include
civil liberties equally distributed and protected; a press and other journalistic media minimally free
from corporate ownership on one side and state control on the other; uncorrupted and unbought elections;
quality public education oriented, inter alia, to producing the literacies relevant to informed and
active citizenship; government openness, honesty, and accountability; a judiciary modestly insulated
from political and commercial influence; separation of church and state; and a foreign policy guided
at least in part by the rationale of protecting these domestic values. None of these constitutive elements
of liberal democracy was ever fully realized in its short history-they have always been compromised
by a variety of economic and social powers, from white supremacy to capitalism.
And liberal democracies in the First World have always required other peoples to pay-politically,
socially, and economically-for what these societies have enjoyed; that is, there has always been a colonially
and imperially inflected gap between what has been valued in the core and what has been required from
the periphery. So it is important to be precise here. Ours is not the first time in which elections
have been bought, manipulated, and even engineered by the courts, the first time the press has been
slavish to state and corporate power, the first time the United States has launched an aggressive assault
on a sovereign nation or threatened the entire world with its own weapons of mass destruction. What
is unprecedented about this time is the extent to which basic principles and institutions of democracy
are becoming nothing other than ideological shells concealing their opposite as well as the extent to
which these principles and institutions even as values are being abandoned by large parts of the American
population.
Elements in this transformation include the development of the most secretive government
in fifty years (the gutting of the Freedom of Information Act was one of the quiet early accomplishments
of the G. W. Bush administration, the "classified" status of its more than 1,000 contracts with Halliburton
one of its more recent); the plumping of corporate wealth combined with the reduction of social spending
for limiting the economic vulnerability of the poor and middle classes; a bought, consolidated, and
muffled press that willingly cooperates in its servitude (emblematic in this regard is the Judith Miller
(non)scandal, in which the star New York Times journalist wittingly reported Pentagon propaganda about
Iraqi WMDs as journalistically discovered fact); and intensified policing in every corner of American
life- airports, university admissions offices, mosques, libraries, workplaces- a policing undertaken
both by official agents of the state and by an interpellated citizenry.
A potentially permanent "state
of emergency" combined with an infinitely expandable rhetoric of patriotism overtly legitimates undercutting
the Bill of Rights and legitimates as well abrogation of conventional democratic principles in setting
foreign policy, principles that include respect for nation-state sovereignty and reasoned justifications
for war. But behind these rhetorics there is another layer of discourse facilitating the dismantling
of liberal democratic institutions and practices: a governmentality of neoliberalism that eviscerates
nonmarket morality and thus erodes the root of democracy in principle at the same time that it raises
the status of profit and expediency as the criteria for policy making.
There is much that is disturbing in the emergence of neoliberal governmentality and a great deal
more work to do in theorizing its contribution to the organization and possibilities in current and
future political life in the United States. In particular, as I suggested at the outset of this essay,
filling in the contemporary political picture would require mapping the convergences and tensions between
a (nonpartisan) neoliberal governmentality on the one hand and the specific agendas of Clintonian centrists
and Reagan-Bush neoconservatives on the other. It would require exploring the continued efficacy of
political rhetorics of morality and principle as neoliberalism voids the substance of and undercuts
the need for extramarket morality. It would require discerning what distinguishes neoliberal governmentality
from old-fashioned corporatism and old-fashioned political realism. It would require examining the contradictory
political imperatives delivered by the market and set as well by the tensions between nationstate interests
and globalized capitalism indifferent to states and sovereignty. And it would require examining the
points at which U.S. imperial policies converge with and diverge from or even conflict with neoliberal
governmentality.
By way of conclusion, however, I leave aside these questions to reflect briefly on the implications
for the Left of neoliberalism's erosion of liberal democracy. While leftists of the past quarter century
were rarely as antagonistic to liberal democracy as the Old Left, neither did we fully embrace it; at
times we resented and railed against it, and certainly we harbored an aim to transform it into something
else-social democracy or some form of radical democracy. So the Left is losing something it never loved,
or at best was highly ambivalent about. We are also losing a site of criticism and political agitation-we
criticized liberal democracy not only for its hypocrisy and ideological trickery but also for its institutional
and rhetorical embedding of bourgeois, white, masculinist, and heterosexual superordination at the heart
of humanism. Whatever loose identity we had as a Left took shape in terms of a differentiation from
liberalism's willful obliviousness to social stratification and injury that were glossed and hence secured
by its formal juridical categories of liberty and equality.
Still, liberalism, as Gayatri Spivak once wrote in a very different context, is also that which one
"cannot not want" (given the other historical possibilities, given the current historical meaning of
its deprivation). Even here, though, the desire is framed as roundabout and against itself, as Spivak's
artful double negative indicates. It indicates a dependency we are not altogether happy about, an organization
of desire we wish were otherwise. What might be the psychic/social/intellectual implications for leftists
of losing this vexed object of attachment? What are the possible trajectories for a melancholic incorporation
of that toward which one is openly ambivalent; or perhaps even hostile, resentful, rebellious?
Freud posits melancholy as occasioned by ambivalence, though the ambivalence may be more unconsciously
sustained than I am suggesting is the case for the Left's relationship to liberal democracy. More precisely,
Freud's focus in theorizing melancholy is love that does not know or want to avow its hostility, whereas
the task before us is to consider hostility that does not know or want to avow its love or dependency.
Still, Freud's thinking about melancholia remains useful here as a theory of loss amid ambivalent attachment
and dependence and a theory of identity formation at the site of an ungrievable passion or attachment.
It reminds us to consider how left melancholia about liberal democracy would not just be a problematic
affect but would constitute a formation of the Left itself.
Incorporating the death of a loathed object to which one was nonetheless attached often takes the
form of acting out the loathed qualities of the object. I once had an acquaintance whose muchdespised
and abusive father died. While my friend overtly rejoiced at his passing, in the ensuing months she
engaged in extraordinary outbursts of verbal and physical abuse toward friends and colleagues, even
throwing things at them as she had described her father throwing household objects during her childhood.
Another friend buried, after years of illness, a childish, hysterical, histrionic, and demanding mother,
one who relentlessly produced herself as a victim amid her own aggressive demands. Relieved as my friend
was to have done with this parent, what should emerge over the following year but exactly such tendencies
in her own relationships? So this is one danger: that we would act out to keep alive those aspects of
the political formation we are losing, that we would take up and perform liberal democracy's complacencies,
cruelties, or duplicities, stage them in our own work and thinking. This behavior would issue in part
from the need to preserve the left identity and project that took shape at the site of liberal democracy,
and in part from ambivalence about liberal democracy itself. In response to the loss of an object both
loved and loathed, in which only the loathing or contempt is avowed, melancholy sustains the loved object,
and continues to provide a cover for the love-a continued means of disavowing it-by incorporating and
performing the loathsomeness.
There are other ways ambivalently structured loss can take shape as melancholic, including the straightforward
possibility of idealizing a lost object as it was never idealized when alive. Straightforward, perhaps,
but not simple, for this affect also involves remorse for a past of not loving the object well enough
and self-reproach for ever having wished for its death or replacement. As idealization fueled by guilt,
this affect also entails heightened aggression toward challenges or challengers to the idealization.
In this guilt, anxiety, and defensiveness over the loss of liberal democracy, we would feel compelled
to defend basic principles of liberalism or simply defend liberalism as a whole in a liberal way, that
is, we would give up being critical of liberalism and, in doing so, give up being left. Freud identifies
this surrender of identity upon the death of an ambivalent object as the suicidal wish in melancholia,17
a wish abetted in our case by a more general disorientation about what the Left is or stands for today.
Evidence for such a surrender in the present extends from our strikingly unnuanced defenses of free
speech, privacy, and other civil liberties to the staging of antiwar protests as "patriotic" through
the iconography of the American flag. Often explained as what the Left must do when public discourse
moves rightward, such accounts presume a single political continuum, ranged from extreme left to extreme
right, in which liberals and conservatives are nothing more than the moderate versions of the extremes
(communists and fascists). Not only does the model of the continuum reduce the variety of political
possibility in modernity to matters of degree rather than kind, it erases the distinctiveness of a left
critique and vision. Just as today's neoliberals bear little in common with traditional conservatives,
so the Left has traditionally stood for a set of values and possibilities qualitatively different from
those of welfare state liberals. Times of alliance and spheres of overlap obviously exist, but a continuum
does not capture the nature of these convergences and tactical linkages any better than it captures
the differences between, for example, a liberal commitment to rights-based equality and a left commitment
to emancipating the realm of production, or between a liberal enthusiasm for the welfare state and a
left critique of its ideological and regulatory dimensions. So the idea that leftists must automatically
defend liberal political values when they are on the ropes, while sensible from a liberal perspective,
does not facilitate a left challenge to neoliberalism if the Left still wishes to advocate in the long
run for something other than liberal democracy in a capitalist socioeconomic order.
Of course, there are aspects of liberal democracy that the Left has come to value and incorporate
into its own vision of the good society-for example, an array of individual liberties that are largely
unrelated to the freedom from domination promised by transforming the realm of production. But articulating
this renewed left vision differs from defending civil liberties in liberal terms, a defense that itself
erases a left project as it consigns it to something outside those terms. Similarly, patriotism and
flag-waving are surely at odds with a left formulation of justice, even as love of America, represented
through icons other than the flag or through narratives other than "supporting the troops," might well
have a part in this formulation. Finally, not only does defending liberal democracy in liberal terms
sacrifice a left vision, but this sacrifice discredits the Left by tacitly reducing it to nothing more
than a permanent objection to the existing regime. It renders the Left a party of complaint rather than
a party with an alternative political, social, and economic vision.
Still, if we are slipping from liberalism to fascism, and if radical democracy or socialism is nowhere
on the political horizon, don't we have to defend liberal democratic institutions and values? Isn't
this the lesson of Weimar? I have labored to suggest that this is not the right diagnosis of our predicament:
it does not grasp what is at stake in neoliberal governmentality-which is not fascism-nor on what grounds
it might be challenged. Indeed, the left defense of the welfare state in the 1980s, which seemed to
stem from precisely such an analysis-"if we can't have socialism, at least we should preserve welfare
state capitalism"-backfired from just such a misdiagnosis. On the one hand, rather than articulating
an emancipatory vision that included the eradication rather than regulation of poverty, the Left appeared
aligned with big government, big spending, and misplaced compassion for those construed as failing to
give their lives proper entrepreneurial shape. On the other hand, the welfare state was dismantled on
grounds that had almost nothing to do with the terms of liberal democracy and everything to do with
neoliberal economic and political rationality. We are not simply in the throes of a right-wing or conservative
positioning within liberal democracy but rather at the threshold of a different political formation,
one that conducts and legitimates itself on different grounds from liberal democracy even as it does
not immediately divest itself of the name. It is a formation that is developing a domestic imperium
correlative with a global one, achieved through a secretive and remarkably agentic state; through corporatized
media, schools, and prisons; and through a variety of technologies for intensified local administrative,
regulatory, and police powers. It is a formation made possible by the production of citizens as individual
entrepreneurial actors across all dimensions of their lives, by the reduction of civil society to a
domain for exercising this entrepreneurship, and by the figuration of the state as a firm whose products
are rational individual subjects, an expanding economy, national security, and global power.
This formation produces a twofold challenge for the Left. First, it compels us to consider the implications
of losing liberal democracy and especially its implications for our own work by learning what the Left
has depended on and demanded from liberal democracy, which aspects of it have formed the basis of our
critiques of it, rebellions against it, and identity based on differentiation from it. We may also need
to mourn liberal democracy, avowing our ambivalent attachment to it, our need for it, our mix of love
and hostility toward it. The aim of this work is framed by the second challenge, that of devising intelligent
left strategies for challenging the neoliberal political-economic formation now taking shape and an
intelligent left countervision to this formation.
A half century ago, Marcuse argued that capitalism had eliminated a revolutionary subject (the proletariat)
representing the negation of capitalism; consequently, he insisted, the Left had to derive and cultivate
anticapitalist principles, possibilities, and agency from capitalism's constitutive outside. That is,
the Left needed to tap the desires- not for wealth or goods but for beauty, love, mental and physical
well-being, meaningful work, and peace-manifestly unmet within a capitalist order and to appeal to those
desires as the basis for rejecting and replacing the order. No longer could economic contradictions
of capitalism inherently fuel opposition to it; rather, opposition had to be founded in an alternative
table of values. Today, the problem Marcuse diagnosed has expanded from capitalism to liberal democracy:
oppositional consciousness cannot be generated from liberal democracy's false promises and hypocrisies.
The space between liberal democratic ideals and lived realities has ceased to be exploitable, because
liberal democracy itself is no longer the most salient discourse of political legitimacy and the good
life. Put the other way around, the politically exploitable hollowness in formal promises of freedom
and equality has largely vanished to the extent that both freedom and equality have been redefined by
neoliberalism. Similarly, revealed connections between political and economic actors-not merely bought
politicians but arrangements of mutual profiteering between corporate America and its political elite-do
not incite outrage at malfeasance, corruption, or injustice but appear instead as a potentially rational
set of linkages between state and economy.
Thus, from the "scandal" of Enron to the "scandal" of Vice
President Cheney delivering Iraq to Halliburton to clean up and rebuild, there is no scandal. There
is only market rationality, a rationality that can encompass even a modest amount of criminality but
also treats close state-corporate ties as a potentially positive value-maximizing the aims of each-rather
than as a conflict of interest. 18 Similarly, even as the Bush administration fails to come up with WMDs in Iraq and fails to be able to install order let alone democracy there, such deficiencies are
irrelevant to the neoliberal criteria for success in that military episode. Indeed, even the scandal
of Bush's installation as president by a politicized Supreme Court in 2000 was more or less ingested
by the American people as business as usual, an ingestion that represents a shift from the expectation
that the Supreme Court is independent of political influence to one that tacitly accepts its inclusion
in the governmentality of neoliberalism. Similarly, John Poindexter, a key figure in the Iran-Contra
affair and director of the proposed "Terrorism Information Awareness" program that would have put all
Americans under surveillance, continued to have power and legitimacy at the Pentagon until the flap
over the scheme to run a futures market on political violence in the Middle East. All three of these
projects are instances of neoliberalism's indifference to democracy; only the last forced Poindexter
into retirement.
These examples suggest that not only liberal democratic principles but democratic morality has been
largely eviscerated-in neoliberal terms, each of these "scandals" is framed as a matter of miscalculation
or political maneuvering rather than by right and wrong, truth or falsehood, institutional propriety
or impropriety. Consequently, the Left cannot count on revealed deception, hypocrisies, interlocking
directorates, featherbedding, or corruption to stir opposition to the existing regime. It cannot count
on the expectation that moral principle undergirds political action or even on consistency as a value
by which to judge state practices or aims. Much of the American public appeared indifferent to the fact
that both the Afghan and Iraqi regimes targeted by Bush had previously been supported or even built
by earlier U.S. foreign policy. It also appeared indifferent to the touting of the "liberation" of Afghan
women as one of the great immediate achievements of the overthrow of the Taliban while the overthrow
of the Baath regime set into motion an immediately more oppressive regime of gender in Iraq. The inconsistency
does not matter much, because political reasons and reasoning that exceed or precede neoliberal criteria
have ceased to matter much. This is serious political nihilism, which no mere defense of free speech
and privacy, let alone securing the right to gay marriage or an increase in the minimum wage, will reverse.
What remains for the Left, then, is to challenge emerging neoliberal governmentality in Euro-Atlantic
states with an alternative vision of the good, one that rejects homo oeconomicus as the norm of the
human and rejects this norm's correlative formations of economy, society, state, and (non)morality.
In its barest form, this would be a vision in which justice would center not on maximizing individual
wealth or rights but on developing and enhancing the capacity of citizens to share power and hence to
collaboratively govern themselves. In such an order, rights and elections would be the background rather
than token of democracy; or better, rights would function to safeguard the individual against radical
democratic enthusiasms but would not themselves signal the presence or constitute the principle of democracy.
Instead, a left vision of justice would focus on practices and institutions of popular power; a modestly
egalitarian distribution of wealth and access to institutions; an incessant reckoning with all forms
of power-social, economic, political, and even psychic; a long view of the fragility and finitude of
nonhuman nature; and the importance of both meaningful activity and hospitable dwellings to human flourishing.
However differently others might place the accent marks, none of these values can be derived from neoliberal
rationality or meet neoliberal criteria for the good.
The drive to develop and promulgate such a counterrationality-a different figuration of human beings,
citizenship, economic life, and the political-is critical both to the long labor of fashioning a more
just future and to the immediate task of challenging the deadly policies of the imperial American state.
There are 3 ways we could reduce what we pay for health care:
(1) Ending the oligopoly power of the health insurance companies;
(2) Ending the doctor cartel;
(3) Reducing the monopoly power of Big Pharma.
Alas, the Republicans have no intention in doing any of this. So when they tell people they
want to lower their costs, they are talking to rich people. The cost to the rest of us will go
up if they have their way.
From what I read, and recall from data Anne has posted a number of times, pharma costs are about
10% of total health care costs, and run about 2X EU average, or Canada, if we adopt that as a
reference baseline. If we cut it in half, that would reduce our costs about 5%.
Doctors fees (physicians and clinical services in this reference) are about 20%. I think you
have mentioned before we pay about 2X typical EU wages. So if we cut that in half, it reduces
our costs about 10%.
Taken together, that's ~ 15% reduction. Not nothing, but in a few years of cost growth we are
back to current cost levels.
Do you see that differently?
I don't have offhand figures for what insurance overhead runs. I think reducing that is probably
the best argument for single payer, although comparisons to medicare overhead seem suspect (I'd
expect much lower overhead percentages when much of your costs you are processing are $40K end
of life hospital events vs. routine GP visits.) So one might zero out the profit, and reduce costs
by having one IT/billing system. What's the scale of the opportunity here - another 15%?
Senate Takes Major Step Toward Repealing Health Care Law
By THOMAS KAPLAN and ROBERT PEAR
In its lengthy series of votes, the Senate rejected amendments proposed by Democrats that were
intended to allow imports of prescription drugs from Canada, protect rural hospitals and ensure
continued access to coverage for people with pre-existing conditions, among other causes....
Progressive neoliberal Hillary Clinton said Bush's tax cuts
caused the epic housing bubble and financial crisis that
Obama had to spend two terms cleaning up.
Nope, the man
most responsible was Alan Greenspan who refused to regulate
the shadow banking system. Her husband Bill Clinton
renominated him to be Fed Chair.
Heckuva job. And both Wall Street Democrats and
Republicans deregulated to encourage private investment and
"job creation." And there was Rubin's strong dollar policy.
Well the private sector did invest. It invested in an epic
housing bubble while highly paid and unionized manufacturing
jobs were shipped overseas.
"... "The idea of a wealth effect doesn't stand up to economic data. The stock market boom in the late 1990s helped increase the wealth of Americans, but it didn't produce a significant change in consumption, according to David Backus, a professor of economics and finance at New York University. Before the stock market reversed itself, "you didn't see a big increase in consumption," says Backus. "And when it did reverse itself, you didn't see a big decrease." ..."
"... Yet that didn't stop Bernanke from citing the Wealth Effect as one of the justifications for trickle down monetary policy: "higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can also spur spending. Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic expansion." https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/other/o_bernanke20101105a.htm ..."
"... The 'wealth effect' is just more poppycock, neoliberal theory designed to enrich the wealthy and deprive others of prosperity. ..."
Milton is almost as controversial as Marx. Marx had a more
realistic, a more grounded world-view. Marx knew damn-well
that his ideals were just that. That we should all share in
the fruits of our combined labor was to Marx, a way of
achieving perfection. Pure idealism and he knew.
Friedman largely believed his own BS, and turned a blind eye
to most moral arguments. This, to me, is the heartless
neoliberal that some our fellow posters are so oft to
mention.
I have no data and no theory to offer against Friedman's
hypothesis, but it sure feels like there is good reason to
doubt it.
The reason I say so is that this mental behavior of
converting income and expense streams into present value
sums, making long term assets and liabilities on the current
personal balance sheet, is extremely rare in my experience.
I'm not talking about just among regular working Joe's
either. I'm talking about people with plenty of excess
income: fund managers and CEOs. If anyone should be able to
habitually do the math it should be these guys. But let me
assert, if you want to rub elbows in that crowd, a nearly
certain way to distinguish yourself is to walk into the room
with these PVs at your fingertips. You may be totally alone.
The idea that less endowed people will do it is just
giggles.
Further, it does not take much thought in this direction
to analyze the expected net worth position of people along
the existing income distribution. It would appear the income
level at which one may be able to expect to fund lifetime
liabilities is near the 80th percentile. That people below
that level may be able to smooth their required consumption
though temporary borrowing is just more giggles.
What's curious here is that while Friedman (and many
policymakers) may assume that most people's consumption isn't
affected by how much they earn, they are totally convinced
that their spending levels are immediately and dramatically
affected by changes in their wealth!
The wealth effect is
one of the pillars of trickle down monetary policy.
Proponents claim that lower interest rates drive asset prices
up, making the wealthy FEEL wealthier again...and presto they
start consuming again, igniting economic growth.
It would be very interesting to chart the course of
wealthy people's spending in response to changes in income
and wealth. The results may prove Friedman right at the upper
end of the income scale--the wealthy, having more than they
know what to do with, may well ride out stormy periods by
maintaining their consumption via borrowing and sale of some
assets.
If Friedman's theory does apply to wealthy people, it
would undermine a fundamental justification for trickle down
monetary policy and help explain why the economic recovery
has been so anemic---policy decisions where targeted at the
wrong end of the income scale...at people who wouldn't boost
consumption (the wealthy) instead of at those who would boost
consumption.
Once again, it would appear that deeply entrenched
economic 'theories' are designed to help the
wealthy...without much empirical evidence.
I think the fundamental pillar of such "thinking" is:
-
Poor people are motivated to work and be virtuous by their
lack of money, so they must be kept hungry;
- Rich people are motivated to work and be virtuous by money,
so they must be kept rich.
"The idea of a wealth effect doesn't stand up to economic
data. The stock market boom in the late 1990s helped increase
the wealth of Americans, but it didn't produce a significant
change in consumption, according to David Backus, a professor
of economics and finance at New York University. Before the
stock market reversed itself, "you didn't see a big increase
in consumption," says Backus. "And when it did reverse
itself, you didn't see a big decrease."
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/hey_wait_a_minute/2008/06/debunking_the_wealth_effect.html
Yet that didn't stop Bernanke from citing the Wealth
Effect as one of the justifications for trickle down monetary
policy: "higher stock prices will boost consumer wealth and
help increase confidence, which can also spur spending.
Increased spending will lead to higher incomes and profits
that, in a virtuous circle, will further support economic
expansion."
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/other/o_bernanke20101105a.htm
The 'wealth effect' is just more poppycock, neoliberal
theory designed to enrich the wealthy and deprive others of
prosperity.
Yet pgl subscribes to the theory!
As expected, promoters of trickle down monetary policy defend
the debunked wealth effect as an primary tool for stimulating
economic growth...but reject Noah Smith's point that poor
people reduce consumption during recessions, making them a
more reasonable policy target for restoring consumption
during demand deficient times.
"... First, the brain. Two generations ago, almost every economist knew what a catastrophe a deficiency of effective demand could create. And in a real crunch, they knew what to do about that. They realized you couldn't push on a string, so somebody - the government - had to borrow and spend when private markets would not. From the 1980s on, though, the fundamental Keynesian point - the Principle of effective Demand -disappeared in a cloud of statistical double-talk that, when you deconstruct it, turns out to imply estimating potential output as a lagged function of whatever foolish policy is being pursued. ..."
"... Central bankers didn't take this giant step backwards to pre-Keynesian economics by themselves. In that sense, it's unfair to say they have only themselves to blame. But they swallowed it whole, helped subsidize it, and cheered it on. Now that they have rediscovered that monetary policy can't levitate a broken economy, except by beggaring the neighbors, it's time they admitted their errors and stopped acting like they could control everything... ..."
"... Next, courage. In the good old days, central bankers were given to heady talk about "taking away the punch bowl" before the party really got going. That may have been mostly rhetoric, but it at least paid lip service to some value bigger than banking... ..."
JohnH -> Peter K....
January 13, 2017 at 08:31 AM
Thomas Ferguson: "Central bankers today irresistibly bring to mind the Wizard of Oz. It's the characters'
missing virtues that grab me: a heart, a brain, and courage. Central bankers today lack all three.
First, the brain. Two generations ago, almost every economist knew what a catastrophe a deficiency
of effective demand could create. And in a real crunch, they knew what to do about that. They realized
you couldn't push on a string, so somebody - the government - had to borrow and spend when private
markets would not. From the 1980s on, though, the fundamental Keynesian point - the Principle of
effective Demand -disappeared in a cloud of statistical double-talk that, when you deconstruct it,
turns out to imply estimating potential output as a lagged function of whatever foolish policy is
being pursued.
Central bankers didn't take this giant step backwards to pre-Keynesian economics by themselves.
In that sense, it's unfair to say they have only themselves to blame. But they swallowed it whole,
helped subsidize it, and cheered it on. Now that they have rediscovered that monetary policy can't
levitate a broken economy, except by beggaring the neighbors, it's time they admitted their errors
and stopped acting like they could control everything...
Next, courage. In the good old days, central bankers were given to heady talk about "taking
away the punch bowl" before the party really got going. That may have been mostly rhetoric, but it
at least paid lip service to some value bigger than banking...
The Fed took risks to save the banking system, but is already telling us we are close to full
employment and professing to be alarmed about "inflation," when anyone can see that banks, insurers,
and pension funds are clamoring for rate rises, just as in the 1930s. Both institutions need to start
thinking about someone besides the financial community. If they don't, I do not doubt that we will
not have seen the last of the anger that Donald Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders mobilized in such
disparate ways in the United States..."
Meanwhile 'liberal' worshippers of unsubstantiated 'crowding out' theories are eager to stifle
fiscal stimulus by having the Fed take away the punch bowl before the party starts.
"... Normalisation is what has historically happened in the wake of financial crises. During the booms that precede busts, low interest rates encourage people to make investments with borrowed money. However, even after all of the prudent investment opportunities have been taken, people continue borrowing to invest in projects and ideas that are unlikely to ever generate profits. ..."
"... Eventually, the precariousness of some of these later investments becomes apparent. Those that arrive at this realization early sell up, settle their debts and pocket profits, but their selling often triggers a rush for the exits that bankrupts companies and individuals and, in many cases, the banks which lent to them. ..."
"... By contrast, the responses of policy-makers to 2008's financial crisis suggest the psychology of hypernormalisation. Quantitative easing (also known as money printing) and interest rate suppression (to zero percent and, in Europe, negative interest rates) are not working and will never result in sustained increases in productivity, income and employment. However, as our leaders are unable to consider alternative policy solutions, they have to pretend that they are working. ..."
"... Statistical chicanery has helped understate unemployment and inflation while global cooperation has served to obscure the currency depreciation and loss of confidence in paper money (as opposed to 'hard money' such as gold and silver) that are to be expected from rampant money printing. ..."
"... The recent fuss over 'fake news' seems intended to remove alternative news and information sources from a population that, alarmingly for those in charge, is both ever-more aware that the system is not working and less and less willing to pretend that it is . Just this month U.S. President Barack Obama signed the Countering Disinformation and Propaganda Act into law. United States, meet your Ministry of Truth. ..."
"... Great article. I think it does describe the USSA at the present time. Everything works until it doesn't. ..."
"... The funny thing is I had almost identical thoughts just a few days ago. But I was thinking in comparison more of East Germany's last 20 years before they imploded - peacefully, because not a single non-leading-rank person believed any of the official facts anymore (and therefore they even simply ignored orders from high command to crush the Leipzig Monday demonstrations.) ..."
"... I'm ok with a world led by Trump and Putin. ..."
"... I recall the joke from the old Soviet Union: "They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work." In the USSA these last few years, Barry pretends to tell the truth. Libtards pretend to believe him. ..."
"... Wrong. They believe him. Look at the gaggle of libtard/shiteaters at Soetero's Friday night bash at the White House. ..."
"... Reagan used to quip that in the Soviet Union, the people pretend to work and the government pretends to pay them. We're not the Soviet Union, but we have become a farce. Next stop - the fall. Followed by chaos, then onto something new. The new elites will just be the old elites, well, the ones that escape the noose. ..."
"... The real ugly problem with the Soviet Union is that whatever they broke it into isn't working well either. ..."
"... Russia's problem post collapse was the good ol' USSA and its capitalist, plunderer banking mavens. ..."
"... The only way to normalize banking in a contemporary banking paradigm of QE Infinity & Beyond is to start over again without the bankers & accountants that knowingly bet the ranch for a short term gain at the expense of long term profitability. In Japan an honourable businessman/CEO would suicide for bringing this kind of devastation to the company shareholders. ..."
"... In America they don't give a shit because it is always someone else other than the CEO that takes the fall. ..."
"... This, after I'd point out his evasion and deflection every time I addressed his bias and belief in the MSM propaganda mantras of racism, misogyny, xenophobia - all the usual labeling bullshit up to insinuating Russia hacked the election ..."
"... I've been using the term Hypernormalisation to describe aspects of western society for the last 15 years, before Adam Curtis's brilliant BBC documentary Hypernormalisation , afflicting western society and particularly politics. There are lies and gross distortions everywhere in western society and it straddles/effects all races, colours, social classes and the disease is most acute in our politics. ..."
"... We all know the hypernoprmalisation in politics, as we witness stories everyday on Zerohedge of the disconnect from reality ..."
"... It is called COGNITIVE DISSONANCE .. ..."
"... "When they are presented with evidence that works against that belief, the new evidence cannot be accepted. It would create a feeling that is extremely uncomfortable, called cognitive dissonance. And because it is so important to protect the core belief, they will rationalize, ignore and even deny anything that doesn't fit with the core belief." ..."
"... During their final days as a world power, the Soviet Union allowed cognitive dissonance to rule its better judgment as so many Americans are doing in 2012. The handwriting on the wall was pretty clear for Gorbachev. The Soviet economy was failing. They did none of the necessary things to save their economy. In 2012, the handwriting on the wall is pretty clear for the American people. The economy is failing. The people and the Congress do none of the necessary things to save their economy. Why? Go re-read the definition of cognitive dissonance. That's why. We have a classic fight going on between those who want government to take care of them who will pay the price of lost freedom to get that care, and those who value freedom above all else. ..."
"... to me the PTB are "Japanifying" the u.s. (decades of no growth, near total demoralization of a generation of worker bees (as in, 'things will never get any better, be glad for what little you've got' etc... look what they've done to u.s. millenials just since '08... fooled (crushed) them TWICE already) ..."
"... But the PTB Plan B is to emulate the USSR with a crackup, replete with fire sale to oligarchs of public assets. ..."
The term comes from Alexei Yurchak's 2006 book Everything was Forever, Until it was No More: The
Last Soviet Generation. The book argues that over the last 20 years of the Soviet Union, everyone
knew the system wasn't working, but as no one could imagine any alternative, politicians and citizens
were resigned to pretending that it was. Eventually this pretending was accepted as normal and the
fake reality thus created was accepted as real, an effect which Yurchak termed "hypernormalisation."
Looking at events over the past few years, one wonders if our own society is experiencing the
same phenomenon. A contrast with what economic policy-makers term "normalisation" is instructive.
Normalisation is what has historically happened in the wake of financial crises. During the
booms that precede busts, low interest rates encourage people to make investments with borrowed money.
However, even after all of the prudent investment opportunities have been taken, people continue
borrowing to invest in projects and ideas that are unlikely to ever generate profits.
Eventually, the precariousness of some of these later investments becomes apparent. Those
that arrive at this realization early sell up, settle their debts and pocket profits, but their selling
often triggers a rush for the exits that bankrupts companies and individuals and, in many cases,
the banks which lent to them.
In the normalisation which follows (usually held during 'special' bank holidays) auditors and
accountants go through financial records and decide which companies and individuals are insolvent
(and should therefore go bankrupt) and which are merely illiquid (and therefore eligible for additional
loans, pledged against good collateral). In a similar fashion, central bank officials decide which
banks are to close and which are to remain open. Lenders made freshly aware of bankruptcy risk raise
(or normalise) interest rates and in so doing complete the process of clearing bad debt out of the
system. Overall, reality replaces wishful thinking.
While this process is by no means pleasant for the people involved, from a societal standpoint
bankruptcy and higher interest rates are necessary to keep businesses focused on profitable investment,
banks focused on prudent lending and overall debt levels manageable.
By contrast, the responses of policy-makers to 2008's financial crisis suggest the psychology
of hypernormalisation. Quantitative easing (also known as money printing) and interest rate suppression
(to zero percent and, in Europe, negative interest rates) are not working and will never result in
sustained increases in productivity, income and employment. However, as our leaders are unable to
consider alternative policy solutions, they have to pretend that they are working.
To understand why our leaders are unable to consider alternative policy solutions such as interest
rate normalization and banking reform one only needs to understand that while such policies would
lay the groundwork for a sustained recovery, they would also expose many of the world's biggest banks
as insolvent. As the financial sector is a powerful constituency (and a generous donor to political
campaigns) the banks get the free money they need, even if such policies harm society as a whole.
As we live in a democratic society, it is necessary for our leaders to convince us that there
are no other solutions and that the monetary policy fixes of the past 8 years have been effective
and have done no harm.
Statistical chicanery has helped understate unemployment and inflation while global cooperation
has served to obscure the currency depreciation and loss of confidence in paper money (as opposed
to 'hard money' such as gold and silver) that are to be expected from rampant money printing.
Looking at unemployment figures first, while the unemployment rate is currently very low, the
number of Americans of working age not in the labour force is currently at an all-time high of over
95 million people. Discouraged workers who stop looking for work are no longer classified as unemployed
but instead become economically inactive, but clearly many of these people really should be counted
as unemployed. Similarly, while government statistical agencies record inflation rates of between
one and two percent, measures that use methodologies used in the past (such as John Williams' Shadowstats
measures) show consumer prices rising at annual rates of 6 to 8 percent. In addition, many people
have noticed what has been termed 'shrinkflation', where prices remain the same even as package sizes
shrink. A common example is bacon, which used to be sold by the pound but which is now commonly sold
in 12 ounce slabs.
Meanwhile central banks have coordinated their money printing to ensure that no major currency
(the dollar, the yen, the euro or the Chinese renminbi) depreciates noticeably against the others
for a sustained period of time. Further, since gold hit a peak of over $1900 per ounce in 2011, central
banks have worked hard to keep the gold price suppressed through the futures market. On more than
a few occasions, contracts for many months worth of global gold production have been sold in a matter
of a few minutes, with predictable consequences for the gold price. At all costs, people's confidence
in and acceptance of the paper (or, more commonly, electronic) money issued by central banks must
be maintained.
Despite these efforts people nonetheless sense that something is wrong. The Brexit vote and the
election of Donald Trump to the White House represent to a large degree a rejection of the fake reality
propagated by the policymaking elite. Increasingly, people recognize that a financial system dependent
upon zero percent interest rates is not sustainable and are responding by taking their money out
of the banks in favour of holding cash or other forms of wealth. In the face of such understanding
and resistance, governments are showing themselves willing to use coercion to enforce acceptance
of their fake reality.
The recent fuss over 'fake news' seems intended to remove alternative news and information
sources from a population that, alarmingly for those in charge, is both ever-more aware that the
system is not working and less and less willing to pretend that it is . Just this month U.S. President
Barack Obama signed the Countering Disinformation and Propaganda Act into law. United States, meet
your Ministry of Truth.
Meanwhile, in India last month, people were told that the highest denomination bills in common
circulation would be 'demonetized' or made worthless as of December 30th. People were allowed to
deposit or exchange a certain quantity of the demonetized bills in banks but many people who had
accumulated their savings in rupee notes (often the poor who did not have bank accounts) have been
ruined. Ostensibly, this demonetization policy was aimed at curbing corruption and terrorism, but
it is fairly obvious that its real objective was to force people into the banking system and electronic
money. Unsurprisingly, the demonetization drive was accompanied by limits on the quantity of gold
people are allowed to hold.
Despite such attempts to influence our thinking and our behaviour, we don't need to resign ourselves
to pretending that our system is working when it so clearly isn't. Looking at the eventual fate of
the Soviet Union, it should be clear that the sooner we abandon the drift towards hypernormalisation
and start on the path to normalisation the better off we will be.
Correct. I seen with sufficient level of comprehending consciousness the last 5 years of it
- copy-cat perfection with the current times in US(S)A, terrifying how similar the times are as
it is a clear indication of the times to come.
The funny thing is I had almost identical thoughts just a few days ago. But I was thinking
in comparison more of East Germany's last 20 years before they imploded - peacefully, because
not a single non-leading-rank person believed any of the official facts anymore (and therefore
they even simply ignored orders from high command to crush the Leipzig Monday demonstrations.)
I was just thinking that the whole economic world sees us in a sort of equilibrium at the moment.
There will be some adjustments under Trump, but nothing serious. We shall see ..
Repeat something often enough and it becomes hypernormalised. With that in mind the number
of eyes/minds/hits is all that matters. This has been known and exploited for hundreds of years.
That a handful of individuals can have a monopoly over the single most important aspect of
whether you live or die is the ultimate success of hypernormalisation. CENTRAL BANKING.
Mrs.M is of the last Soviet generation. Her .gov papers say so. There is never
a day when I don't hear something soviet. She still has a her red pioneer ribbon.
I have tried to encourage her to write about it on ZH so that we know. Do you think she
will? No. She's says that we can't understand what it was like no matter what she
says.
Mrs.M was born in 1981 so she has lived an interesting life. I married her in 2004 after
much paperwork and $15000. I wanted that female because we got along quite well. She
is who I needed with me this and I would do it all over again.
Needless to say, I do not support any aggression towards Russia. And to my fellow Americans,
I advise caution because the half you are broke ass fucks and are already ropes with me.
I recall the joke from the old Soviet Union: "They pretend to pay us, we pretend to work."
In the USSA these last few years, Barry pretends to tell the truth. Libtards pretend to believe
him.
Geezer, I'd change only one thing... I believe libtards bought Barry's bullshit hook, line
and sinker... it was the rest of us who not-so-subtly were saying WTF!!!
Reagan used to quip that in the Soviet Union, the people pretend to work and the government
pretends to pay them. We're not the Soviet Union, but we have become a farce. Next stop
- the fall. Followed by chaos, then onto something new. The new elites will just be the old elites,
well, the ones that escape the noose.
what noose? you think joe 6p is going to identify the culprits? i think not. "no one saw this
coming!!!" is still ringing in my ears from the last time.
I really don't know how people can keep on getting clicks with this tired crap. It didn't happen
in 2008 just get over it. The delusional people are the people that think the world is going to
end tomorrow.
Maybe the world has ended, for 95 million? I haven't paid a single Fed income tax dollar
in over 8 yrs., for a specific reason, I refuse to support the new normal circus, and quite frankly
I would have gotten out during the GWBush regime, but I couldn't afford to at the time.
The real ugly problem with the Soviet Union is that whatever they broke it into isn't working
well either. Same with the USSA. No one really knows what to do. Feudalism would probably
work, but it is not possible to go back to it. My bet is that we will end up with some form of
socialism, universal income and whatever else, just because there is no good alternative for dealing
with lots and lots of people who are not needed anymore.
Do you mean useless eaters or fuckers deserving the guillotine? Russia's problem post collapse
was the good ol' USSA and its capitalist, plunderer banking mavens.
The Soviet Union pushed its old culture to near destruction but failed to establish a new and
better culture to replace it, writes Angelo M. Codevilla in "The Rise of Political Correctness,"
and as a result the U.S.S.R fell, just as America's current "politically correct" and dysfunctional
"progressive utopia" will implode.
As such, Codevilla would agree that the US population " is both ever-more aware that the system
is not working and less and less willing to pretend that it is."
As for the U.S.S.R., "this step turned out instead to destroy the very basis of Soviet power,"
writes Codevilla. "[C]ontinued efforts to force people to celebrate the party's ersatz reality,
to affirm things that they know are not true and to deny others they know to be true – to live
by lies – requires breaking them , reducing them to a sense of fearful isolation, destroying their
self-esteem and their capacity to trust others. George Orwell's novel 1984 dramatized this culture
war's ends and means : nothing less than the substitution of the party's authority for the reality
conveyed by human senses and reason. Big Brother's agent, having berated the hapless Winston
for preferring his own views to society's dictates, finished breaking his spirit by holding up
four fingers and demanding that Winston acknowledge seeing five.
"Thus did the Soviet regime create dysfunctional, cynical, and resentful subjects. Because
Communism confused destruction of 'bourgeois culture' with cultural conquest, it won all the cultural
battles while losing its culture war long before it collapsed politically. As Communists identified
themselves in people's minds with falsehood and fraud, people came to identify truth with anything
other than the officials and their doctrines. Inevitably, they also identified them with corruption
and privation. A nd so it was that, whenever the authorities announced that the harvest had been
good, the people hoarded potatoes; and that more and more people who knew nothing of Christianity
except that the authorities had anathematized it, started wearing crosses."
And if you want to see the ruling class's culture war in action today in America, pick up the
latest issues of Vogue Magazine or O, The Oprah Magazine with their multitude of role reversals
between whites and minorities. Or check out the latest decisions by the U.S. Supreme Court forcing
people to acknowledge that America is not a Christian nation, or making it "more difficult for
men, women and children to exist as a family" or demanding via law "that their subjects join them
in celebrating the new order that reflects their identity."
As to just how far the ruling class has gone to serve the interests and proclivities of its
leaders and to reject the majority's demand for representation, Codevilla notes, "In 2012 no one
would have thought that defining marriage between one man and one woman, as enshrined in U.S.
law, would brand those who do so as motivated by a culpable psychopathology called 'homophobia,'
subject to fines and near-outlaw status. Not until 2015-16 did it occur to anyone that requiring
persons with male personal plumbing to use public bathrooms reserved for men was a sign of the
same pathology
"On the wholesale level, it is a war on civilization waged to indulge identity politics."
This article is so flawed! People[impoverished] aren't trying to jump over a wall patrolled
by guards into Mexico -YET. Tyler, why do you repost shit like this?
That's because the Yankees, fleeing high taxes, can move to the sunbelt states w/o freezing.
The USA went broke in 2008. Mexico got a head start by 22 years when oil prices collapsed in '86.
The only way to normalize banking in a contemporary banking paradigm of QE Infinity & Beyond
is to start over again without the bankers & accountants that knowingly bet the ranch for a short
term gain at the expense of long term profitability. In Japan an honourable businessman/CEO would
suicide for bringing this kind of devastation to the company shareholders.
In America they don't give a shit because it is always someone else other than the CEO
that takes the fall. 08 was proof that America is not equipped to participate in a Multinational
& Multipolar world of business & investment in business. America can't get along in business in
this world anymore. Greed has rendered America unemployable as a major market participant in a
Globally run network of businesses.
America is the odd man out these days even though the next POTUS promises better management
from a business perspective. Whilst the Mafia Cartel bosses trust TrumpO's business savvy the
rest of the planet Earth does not.
A liberal friend laid this movie on me to show me why he supported Hillary. A smart cookie,
a PHd teaching English in Japan. A Khazarnazi Jew, he even spent time in Kyiv, Ukraine pre-coup,
only mingling with "poets and writers". He went out of his way to tell me how bad the Russians
were, informed as he was prior to the rejection of the EU's usurious offer.
He even quite dramatically pulled out the Anti-Semite card. I had to throw Banderas in his
face and the US sponsored regime. I had respect for this guy and his knowledge but he just - could
- not - let - go the cult assumptions. I finally came to believe Liberal Arts educators are victims
of inbred conditioning. In retaliation, he wanted to somehow prove Putin a charlatan or villian
and Trump his proxie.
This, after I'd point out his evasion and deflection every time I addressed his bias and
belief in the MSM propaganda mantras of racism, misogyny, xenophobia - all the usual labeling
bullshit up to insinuating Russia hacked the election. Excerpts from a correspondence wherein
I go full asshole on the guy follow. Try and make sense of it if you watch this trash:
HyperNormalization 50:29 Not Ronald Rayguns, or Quadaffi plays along. Say what? They're, i.e.
Curtis, assuming what Q thought?
1:15 USSR collapses. No shit. Cronyism in a centralized organization grown too large is inevitable
it seems. So the premise has evolved to cultural/societal "management". Right. USSR collapses
but let's repeat the same mistakes 'cause "it's different this time". We got us a computer!
Then Fink the failed Squid (how do Squids climb the corporate ladder?) builds one and programs
historical data to,,,, forecast? I heard a' this. Let me guess. He couldn't avoid bias, making
his models fallacious. Whoops. Well, he does intend to manipulate society, or was that not the
goal? Come again? Some authority ran with it and ... captured an entire nation's media, conspired
with other like-minded sycophants and their mysterious masters to capture an election by ... I
may be getting ahead of myself.
Oh, boy, I have an inkling of where this is going. Perceptions modified by the word, advanced
by the herd, in order to capture a vulnerable society under duress, who then pick sides, fool
themselves in the process, miss the three hour tour never to live happily ever after on a deserted
isle because they eschew (pick a bias here from the list provided). The one you think the "others"
have, 'cause, shit, we're above it all, right? " Are we not entertained" is probably not the most
appropriate question here.
Point being, Curtis, the BBC documentarian, totally negates the reality of pathological Imperialism
as has been practiced by the West over the last half century, causing so many of the effects
he so casually eludes to in the Arab Spring, Libya, Syria, Russia, the US and elsewhere. Perhaps
the most blatant is this; Curtis asserts that Trump "defeated journalism" by rendering its fact-checking
abilities irrelevant. Wikipedia He Hypernormalizes the very audience that believes itself to be
enlightened. As for my erstwhile friend, the fucker never once admitted all the people *killed*
for the ideals he supported. I finally blew him off for good.
I've been using the term Hypernormalisation to describe aspects of western society for
the last 15 years, before Adam Curtis's brilliant BBC documentary Hypernormalisation , afflicting
western society and particularly politics. There are lies and gross distortions everywhere in
western society and it straddles/effects all races, colours, social classes and the disease is
most acute in our politics.
We all know the hypernoprmalisation in politics, as we witness stories everyday on Zerohedge
of the disconnect from reality...
Enter Operation Stillpoint: William Colby, William Casey and Leo Emil Wanta.
At the time it started, President Reagan wanted to get a better handle on ways to keep the
Soviets from expansionary tactics used to spread Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov Lenin's philosophy of
communism around the world. He looked to his Special Task Force to provide a means of doing so.
One thing was certain: The economy of the Soviets had never been strong and corruption, always
present in government and always growing at least as fast as a government grows, made the USSR
vulnerable to outside interference just as the United States is today.
According to Gorbachev's Prime Minister, Nikolai Ryzhkov, the "moral [nravstennoe] state of
the society" in 1985 was its "most terrifying" feature: "[We] stole from ourselves, took and gave
bribes, lied in the reports, in newspapers, from high podiums, wallowed in our lies, hung medals
on one another. And all of this – from top to bottom and from bottom to top."
Again, it sounds like today's America, doesn't it?
Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze made equally painful comments about the lawlessness and
corruption dominating the Soviet Union. During the winter months of 1984-85, he told Gorbachev
that "Everything is rotten. It has to be changed."
"Sometimes people hold a core belief that is very strong," Frantz Fanon said in his 1952 book
Black Skin, White Masks (originally published in French as Peau Noire, Masques Blancs). "When
they are presented with evidence that works against that belief, the new evidence cannot be accepted.
It would create a feeling that is extremely uncomfortable, called cognitive dissonance. And because
it is so important to protect the core belief, they will rationalize, ignore and even deny anything
that doesn't fit with the core belief."
COGNITIVE DISSONANCE
During their final days as a world power, the Soviet Union allowed cognitive dissonance
to rule its better judgment as so many Americans are doing in 2012. The handwriting on the wall
was pretty clear for Gorbachev. The Soviet economy was failing. They did none of the necessary
things to save their economy. In 2012, the handwriting on the wall is pretty clear for the American
people. The economy is failing. The people and the Congress do none of the necessary things to
save their economy. Why? Go re-read the definition of cognitive dissonance. That's why. We have
a classic fight going on between those who want government to take care of them who will pay the
price of lost freedom to get that care, and those who value freedom above all else.
On one day we have 50 state attorneys general suing Bank of America for making fraudulent mortgages,
and on the next we have M.F. Global losing billions upon billions of customer dollars because
they got mixed with the firm's funds – which is against the law – or we have J.P. Morgan Chase
losing $2 billion (or is it $5 billion?) in bad investments. As Eduard Shevardnadze said, "Everything
is rotten. It has to be changed." As I would say it, "There is no Rule of Law in America today.
There has been no real Rule of Law since George Herbert Walker Bush took office."
No one listened then; no one is listening in America now. The primary reason? Cognitive dissonance.
-- Chapter 2, "Wanta! Black Swan, White Hat" (2013)
Okay then, forget what was said in 1985, that was later reported in 2013 ..
Lee Wanta. I've heard of him before. He was screwed over for some bullshit charges. And the
CIA made a firm warning... How long did that dude spent in jail?
Just looked up his story as it was blurry. Cronyism at its finest. So now that I got my refreshing
course. Trump stole/adopted (however you want to look at that) his plan and the project the gov
(DOT) proposes sucks donkey balls compared to Wanta's.
So where are all the climate hoaxers now by the way? You'd figure they'd be all over this.
to me the PTB are "Japanifying" the u.s. (decades of no growth, near total demoralization
of a generation of worker bees (as in, 'things will never get any better, be glad for what little
you've got' etc... look what they've done to u.s. millenials just since '08... fooled (crushed)
them TWICE already)
But the PTB Plan B is to emulate the USSR with a crackup, replete with fire sale to oligarchs
of public assets. They will Japan as long as they can (so it will be difficult to forecast
any crackup anymore than six months beforehand). Hope they have a Gorbachev lined up, to limit
the bloodshed
Andy Haldane
, Chief Economist and Executive Director, Monetary Analysis &
Statistics, Bank of England
It would be easy to become very depressed at the
state of economics in the current environment. Many experts, including economics
experts, are simply being ignored. But the economic challenges facing us could not be
greater: slowing growth, slowing productivity, the retreat of trade, the retreat of
globalisation, high and rising levels of inequality. These are deep and diverse
problems facing our societies and we will need deep and diverse frameworks to help
understand them and to set policy in response to them. In the pre-crisis environment
when things were relatively stable and stationary, our existing frameworks in
macroeconomics did a pretty good job of making sense of things.
But the world these days is characterised by features such as discontinuities,
tipping points, multiple equilibria, and radical uncertainty. So if we are to make
economics interesting and the response to the challenges adequate, we need new
frameworks that can capture the complexities of modern societies.
We are seeing increased interest in using complexity theory to make sense of the
dynamics of economic and financial systems. For example, epidemiological models have
been used to understand and calibrate regulatory capital standards for the largest,
most interconnected banks, the so-called "super-spreaders". Less attention has been
placed on using complexity theory to understand the overall architecture of public
policy – how the various pieces of the policy jigsaw fit together as a whole in
relation to modern economic and financial systems. These systems can be characterised
as a complex, adaptive "
system
of systems
", a nested set of sub-systems, each one itself a complex web. The
architecture of a complex system of systems means that policies with varying degrees
of magnification are necessary to understand and to moderate fluctuations. It also
means that taking account of interactions between these layers is important when
gauging risk.
Although there is no generally-accepted definition of complexity, that proposed by
Herbert Simon in
The Architecture of Complexity
– "one made up of a
large number of parts that interact in a non-simple way" – captures well its everyday
essence. The whole behaves very differently than the sum of its parts. The properties
of complex systems typically give rise to irregular, and often highly non-normal,
statistical distributions for these systems over time. This manifests itself as much
fatter tails than a normal distribution would suggest. In other words, system-wide
interactions and feedbacks generate a much higher probability of catastrophic events
than Gaussian distributions would imply.
For evolutionary reasons of survival of the fittest, Simon posited that
"decomposable" networks were more resilient and hence more likely to proliferate. By
decomposable networks, he meant organisational structures which could be partitioned
such that the resilience of the system as a whole was not reliant on any one
sub-element. This may be a reasonable long-run description of some real-world complex
systems, but less suitable as a description of the evolution of socio-economic
systems. The efficiency of many of today's networks relies on their
hyper-connectivity. There are, in the language of economics, significantly increasing
returns to scale and scope in a network industry. Think of the benefits of global
supply chains and global interbank networks for trade and financial risk-sharing.
This provides a powerful secular incentive for non-decomposable socio-economic
systems.
Moreover, if these hyper-connected networks do face systemic threat, they are
often able to adapt in ways which avoid extinction. For example, the risk of social,
economic or financial disorder will typically lead to an adaptation of policies to
prevent systemic collapse. These adaptive policy responses may preserve
otherwise-fragile socio-economic topologies. They may even further encourage the
growth of connectivity and complexity of these networks. Policies to support
"super-spreader" banks in a crisis for instance may encourage them to become larger
and more complex. The combination of network economies and policy responses to
failure means socio-economic systems may be less Darwinian, and hence decomposable,
than natural and biological systems.
Andy Haldane addresses OECD New Approaches to Economic Challenges (NAEC)
Roundtable
What public policy implications follow from this complex system of systems
perspective? First, it underscores the importance of accurate data and timely mapping
of each layer in the system. This is especially important when these layers are
themselves complex. Granular data is needed to capture the interactions within and
between these complex sub-systems.
Second, modelling of each of these layers, and their interaction with other
layers, is likely to be important, both for understanding system risks and dynamics
and for calibrating potential policy responses to them.
Third, in controlling these risks, something akin to the Tinbergen Rule is likely
to apply: there is likely to be a need for at least as many policy instruments as
there are complex sub-components of a system of systems if risk is to be monitored
and managed effectively. Put differently, an under-identified complex system of
systems is likely to result in a loss of control, both system-wide and for each of
the layers.
In the meantime, there is a crisis in economics. For some, it is a threat. For
others it is an opportunity to make a great leap forward, as Keynes did in the 1930s.
But seizing this opportunity requires first a re-examination of the contours of
economics and an exploration of some new pathways. Second, it is important to look at
economic systems through a cross-disciplinary lens. Drawing on insights from a range
of disciplines, natural as well as social sciences, can provide a different
perspective on individual behaviour and system-wide dynamics.
The NAEC initiative does so, and the OECD's willingness to consider a complexity
approach puts the Organisation at the forefront of bringing economic analysis
policy-making into the 21
st
century.
The OECD organised a Workshop on Complexity and Policy, 29-30 September, OECD HQ,
Paris, along with the European Commission and INET. Watch the webcast:
29/09
morning
;
29/09
afternoon
;
30/09
morning
Re Wolfers: Having an opinion is not the same as being able to predict or infer accurately. (Nominally)
informed opinion hasn't performed particularly well with respect to either at the macro level
and many see no connection with their lives at the micro level. If people see "expert" opinion
as either wrong or irrelevant then they will ignore it. Nature abhors a vacuum so rather adopt
experts' stories they'll create their own narrative. Confidence of small business owners that
their lot will improve? That's what they'd like to believe and what evidence do they have that
it won't? (Stories matter more to most people than facts or models. We ignore that at our peril.)
Small business is optimistic based on current trends with demand improving and people having more
money to spend. Their optimism has nothing to do with Trump
Wall Street sees opportunity for profits. Big Tax cuts for the wealthy will inflate stock prices.
It reflects the opportunity for short term gains, not long term economic improvement
Economist influence on policy is overrated
Since when have our ruling elites followed advice?
Medical research can thrive in spite of a government of short earth creationists
A key battle is giving cities more control over spending
Local control can better direct infrastructure spending than state agencies concerned with freeways
It is a mistake to look to the Federal Government as savior. Urbanization is the future. Let the
cities invest in themselves and stop subsidizing the unsustainable suburban and exurban development.
Peter K. -> jonny bakho... , -1
"It is a mistake to look to the Federal Government as savior. Urbanization is the future. Let
the cities invest in themselves and stop subsidizing the unsustainable suburban and exurban development."
Why Most Economists Are So Worried About Trump http://nyti.ms/2ij9VRP via @UpshotNYT
NYT - Justin Wolfers - January 11
I feared that I might have been talking with an unrepresentative group until I stumbled upon
a recent survey of leading academic economists showing a similar pattern. Of the 31 respondents
to the University of Chicago's IGM Economic Experts Panel, 28 disagreed with the claim that the
"seven actions to protect American workers" in Mr. Trump's 100-day plan would improve the economic
prospects of middle-class Americans. The dissenters were two economists who were uncertain, and
one who had no opinion.
The pervasive pessimism among professional economists stands in stark contrast with the judgment
of financial markets, which rose strongly in the wake of Mr. Trump's election, and have remained
buoyant since.
It also puts economists at odds with the judgments of small-business owners. According to the
latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Businesses, the balance of members who
expect general business conditions to improve has moved drastically. In October, the pessimists
who saw business conditions as likely to worsen outnumbered the optimists by seven percentage
points; the latest survey from December shows that the optimists now outnumber the pessimists
by 50 percentage points. It's an extraordinary shift - one the association described as "stratospheric."
I'm not quite sure how to reconcile these conflicting signals. One possibility is that Mr.
Trump remains something of an unknown, and each group is filling in the blanks differently. Small
businesses, pleased to see a businessman in the White House, might be tempted to believe the best.
By contrast, there's a reason that economics is called the dismal science, and few economists
trust politicians - of either stripe - to get things right. Greater uncertainty gives economists
a broader canvas upon which to project their pessimism. ...
JW: ... 'According to the latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Businesses,
the balance of members who expect general business conditions to improve has moved drastically.'
...
"Expect Better Business Conditions" rises dramatically
Small business optimism rocketed to its highest level since 2004, with a stratospheric 38-point
jump in the number of owners who expect better business conditions, according to the monthly National
Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) Index of Small Business Optimism, released today.
"We haven't seen numbers like this in a long time," said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan.
"Small business is ready for a breakout, and that can only mean very good things for the U.S.
economy."
The Index reached 105.8, an increase of 7.4 points. Leading the charge was "Expect Better Business
Conditions," which shot up from a net 12 percent in November to a net 50 percent last month. ...
"Confidence of small business owners that their lot will improve?
"
Could *small business confidence index* work same as *odd lot investor's confidence*? Odd lot
buying index? The little people registering their wrong opinions? A contrary indicator? Do you
see how small business confidence curve has begun to raise a red flag?
The document reads like "the gang that couldn't shoot straight." It's a joke.
Notable quotes:
"... People who already dislike Trump will believe the allegations while people who like Trump will hate the press and intelligence agencies (?) even more for attacking him unfairly in their minds. ..."
"... People are making jokes about it, the puns are just too easy, but nobody seems to actually believe it. ..."
"... People don't talk about it like "did you hear trump did X" "oh yea" "yea there was a story". Its like "there was a very dubious story that trump did x" "". The way people talk about a Saturday Night Live sketch about Trump. ..."
"... "This is a huge embarrassment to Democrats, the mainstream media and those intelligence officials who have all been piling on Trump. It hurts their credibility, which can ill afford to take yet another hit." ..."
"... It's just partisan warfare. ..."
"... "Today Clapper denounced media leaks..." Is that the same Clapper who lied to Congress about how the NSA was spying on law-abiding citizens en mass? Yeah he's trustworthy. ..."
"... CNN was the first to report what Buzzfeed revealed. Trump was mad at them. Who else? ..."
"... Glenn Greenwald explains the whole vendetta against Trump based on sham data. https://theintercept.com/2017/01/11/the-deep-state-goes-to-war-with-president-elect-using-unverified-claims-as-dems-cheer/ ..."
"... With release of the buzz feed data, they overplayed their hand, destroyed their narrative, embarrassed themselves, and ultimately strengthened Trump. ..."
"... "they damn well better have the goods...and the goods need to PO the deplorables." nothing will change their minds. They just see it as cynical attacks on their man. ..."
"... The long knives will come out during the next recession ..."
"... This reminds me of how the Bush campaign got Dan Rather to release some bogus information about Bush43 as a draft dodger. ..."
"... In that case, I think the narrative of Bush as a draft dodger was correct, but its usefulness for Democrats got destroyed the moment Rather's source was revealed as bogus. ..."
"... In this case, Hillary's assertions of Trump as a Putin stooge have been highly suspect, though she made a big deal of them in her campaign. Now that narrative has been crippled by the buzz feed overreach. ..."
"... Exactly! "Democrats don't want to do a post-mortem about why they lost. It may prove that Bernie Sanders was right. They'd rather change the subject," which is where the 'everything is Putin's fault' narrative comes in. ..."
"... Reminds me of the 'everything is Republicans fault' narrative that Democrats used to justify Obama's failure to jail bankers, his austerity, and his proposals to cut Social Security. ..."
"... Democrats are masters of denial and victimization...just like Republicans. It's all very sick. ..."
"... There is, and always was, a better Putin narrative. Trump is an FSB mole is both too far and too specific. ..."
"... the election should never been about Putin. It should have been about swing state voters' economic anxieties, something that Hillary could never wrap here head around. ..."
"... Now it looks like the Trump-Putin narrative is blowing up in their faces---purveyors of fake news should not accuse others of purveying fake news. ..."
The thing about Trump is that people can imagine he's the kind of guy who would enjoy being urinated
on by Russian prostitutes, even if the allegations are untrue. He is so into gold and into women.
People who already dislike Trump will believe the allegations while people who like Trump
will hate the press and intelligence agencies (?) even more for attacking him unfairly in their
minds.
I know a lot of people who dislike Trump, and none of them seem to believe the buzzfeed story.
People are making jokes about it, the puns are just too easy, but nobody seems to actually believe
it.
People don't talk about it like "did you hear trump did X" "oh yea" "yea there was a story".
Its like "there was a very dubious story that trump did x" "". The way people talk about a Saturday
Night Live sketch about Trump.
"This is a huge embarrassment to Democrats, the mainstream media and those intelligence officials
who have all been piling on Trump. It hurts their credibility, which can ill afford to take yet
another hit."
Kind of like Comey was a huge embarrassment to Republicans? I don't think so. It's just
partisan warfare.
"Today Clapper denounced media leaks..." Is that the same Clapper who lied to Congress about
how the NSA was spying on law-abiding citizens en mass? Yeah he's trustworthy.
"This is a huge embarrassment to Democrats, the mainstream media and those intelligence officials
who have all been piling on Trump. It hurts their credibility, which can ill afford to take yet
another hit."
CNN was the first to report what Buzzfeed revealed. Trump was mad at them. Who else?
Like Trump doesn't use "sham data" and innuendo. Who cares? Poetic justice. Trump is just going
to waste his time pursuing vendettas against those who sullied his good name.
Maybe that drama will "crowd out" some of his plans to enact Paul Ryan's agenda. Maybe it will
cause a backlash among those Americans interested in a free press and democratic norms.
Like I said some of your ideas are good, but they are tarnished by some of the really stupid
things you say by association.
We already know that Trump has a Teflon shield. If the establishment is going to get him, they
damn well better have the goods...and the goods need to PO the deplorables. Trumped up charges
won't cut it.
Should-Read: Josh Marshall: What You Didn't See: "What may be the most significant news of
the day barely made a ripple...
...Donald Trump, ten days from becoming President, has an approval rating of 37%. Most presidents
seldom get so low. Some never do. For ten days away from inauguration it's totally unprecedented....
Each of the last three presidents had approval ratings of at least 65% during their presidential
transitions.... Curiously absent from press coverage [has been that] Trump, his agenda and his
party are deeply unpopular... [and have] gotten steadily more unpopular over the last four weeks..."
"they damn well better have the goods...and the goods need to PO the deplorables." nothing
will change their minds. They just see it as cynical attacks on their man.
The long knives will come out during the next recession, when Trump will have proven
his incompetence. Pretense for impeachment is unknowable, but it better be good!
This reminds me of how the Bush campaign got Dan Rather to release some bogus information
about Bush43 as a draft dodger.
In that case, I think the narrative of Bush as a draft dodger was correct, but its usefulness
for Democrats got destroyed the moment Rather's source was revealed as bogus.
In this case, Hillary's assertions of Trump as a Putin stooge have been highly suspect,
though she made a big deal of them in her campaign. Now that narrative has been crippled by the
buzz feed overreach.
Democrats should have focused on voters' economic concerns, not the Trump-Putin narrative.
There was an interesting movie about the Rather case staring Robert Redford and Cate Blanchette.
Trump is engaging in the same thuggish behavior as Republicans used against Rather and his producer
in that case. Or course CBS folded because they had regulatory changes about affiliate ownership
before the Bush administration.
We can expect the same cowardice from our corporate media regarding the Trump administration.
It would be interesting to know if Trump had something to do with release of the buzz feed report.
It would make Trump smarter than I think he really is. My understanding is that John McCain, who
hates Trump, was behind circulation of the report before buzz feed released it.
"My understanding is that John McCain, who hates Trump, was behind circulation of the report before
buzz feed released it." A lot of people knew about it. The eight leading congress people on the
intelligence committees knew about it. David Corn reported about it in October in Mother Jones.
"Democrats should have focused on voters' economic concerns, not the Trump-Putin narrative."
I'll agree with you on this. Obama went more positive in 2008 and 2012 than Hillary did in
2016 and was successful at the polls. Negative campaigning works but seems like too much of it
depresses turnout.
Part of it is that establishment Democrats don't want to do a post-mortem about why they lost.
It may prove that Bernie Sanders was right. They'd rather change the subject.
Exactly! "Democrats don't want to do a post-mortem about why they lost. It may prove that
Bernie Sanders was right. They'd rather change the subject," which is where the 'everything is
Putin's fault' narrative comes in.
Reminds me of the 'everything is Republicans fault' narrative that Democrats used to justify
Obama's failure to jail bankers, his austerity, and his proposals to cut Social Security.
Democrats are masters of denial and victimization...just like Republicans. It's all very
sick.
There is, and always was, a better Putin narrative. Trump is an FSB mole is both too far and
too specific.
The Republican's policy ideas are awful. Trump will be a terrible president. Putin wants us
weak, and the Republican party will deliver just as it did during the Bush presidency.
We will make little progress on our important problems, and make massive blunders that cost
us for decades.
Global warming will continue to improve the Russian Climate. Progress on renewable energy will
be slowed, improving the market for Russian oil and gas. The US will worsen its healthcare problems.
The US will exacerbate its inequality. The toxic republican attitude toward the institutions of
democracy will come from all three branches of the federal government, and most state governments.
Putin doesn't like Hillary. At the time, she said Putin's election was rigged. And they were pushing
Russia on all fronts. Trump is an isolationist who doesn't care about human rights or freedom
of the press.
Agreed. There were probably better Putin narratives, and the election should never been about
Putin. It should have been about swing state voters' economic anxieties, something that Hillary
could never wrap here head around.
Now it looks like the Trump-Putin narrative is blowing up in their faces---purveyors of
fake news should not accuse others of purveying fake news.
This Paul Wood. is very funny "I understand the CIA believes it is credible..." The document reads like "the gang that couldn't shoot straight." It's a joke. But
despite this Paul wood provided a
good (albeit very dirty) hatchet job. Looks like neocons declared the open war on Trump. And as
they are just a flavor of Trotskyites they are are capable of everything as they preach " the end justifies
the means"... with their global neoliberal revolution under threat they can do as low as gangsters.
Fake evidence is OK form in the best the "end justified the means" way.
Notable quotes:
"... Claims about a Russian blackmail tape were made in one of a series of reports written by a former British intelligence agent, understood to be Christopher Steele ..."
"... As a member of MI6, he had been posted to the UK's embassy in Moscow and now runs a consultancy giving advice on doing business in Russia. He spoke to a number of his old contacts in the FSB, the successor to the KGB, paying some of them for information. ..."
"... Mr Trump's supporters say this is a politically motivated attack. The president-elect himself, outraged, tweeted this morning: "Are we living in Nazi Germany?" ..."
"... He said the memo was written by "sick people [who] put that crap together". ..."
"... The opposition research firm that commissioned the report had worked first for an anti-Trump superpac - political action committee - during the Republican primaries. ..."
"... Then during the general election, it was funded by an anonymous Democratic Party supporter. ..."
"... At his news conference, Mr Trump said he warned his staff when they travelled: "Be very careful, because in your hotel rooms and no matter where you go you're going to probably have cameras." ..."
"Trump 'compromising' claims: How and why did we get here?"
By Paul Wood...BBC News...Washington...1-12-2017...47 minutes ago
"Donald Trump has described as "fake news" allegations published in some media that his election
team colluded with Russia - and that Russia held compromising material about his private life.
The BBC's Paul Wood saw the allegations before the election, and reports on the fallout now they
have come to light.
The significance of these allegations is that, if true, the president-elect of the United States
would be vulnerable to blackmail by the Russians.
I understand the CIA believes it is credible that the Kremlin has such kompromat - or compromising
material - on the next US commander in chief. At the same time a joint taskforce, which includes
the CIA and the FBI, has been investigating allegations that the Russians may have sent money
to Mr Trump's organisation or his election campaign.
Claims about a Russian blackmail tape were made in one of a series of reports written by
a former British intelligence agent, understood to be Christopher Steele.
As a member of MI6, he had been posted to the UK's embassy in Moscow and now runs a consultancy
giving advice on doing business in Russia. He spoke to a number of his old contacts in the FSB,
the successor to the KGB, paying some of them for information.
They told him that Mr Trump had been filmed with a group of prostitutes in the presidential
suite of Moscow's Ritz-Carlton hotel. I know this because the Washington political research company
that commissioned his report showed it to me during the final week of the election campaign.
The BBC decided not to use it then, for the very good reason that without seeing the tape -
if it exists - we could not know if the claims were true. The detail of the allegations were certainly
lurid. The entire series of reports has now been posted by BuzzFeed.
[Image of Trump's Tweet]
Mr Trump's supporters say this is a politically motivated attack. The president-elect himself,
outraged, tweeted this morning: "Are we living in Nazi Germany?" Later, at his much-awaited
news conference, he was unrestrained. "A thing like that should have never been written," he said,
"and certainly should never have been released."
He said the memo was written by "sick people [who] put that crap together".
The opposition research firm that commissioned the report had worked first for an anti-Trump
superpac - political action committee - during the Republican primaries.
Then during the general election, it was funded by an anonymous Democratic Party supporter.
But these are not political hacks - their usual line of work is country analysis and commercial
risk assessment, similar to the former MI6 agent's consultancy. He, apparently, gave his dossier
to the FBI against the firm's advice.
[Photo of Trump in Moscow, 2013 w/beauty contestants]
And the former MI6 agent is not the only source for the claim about Russian kompromat on the
president-elect. Back in August, a retired spy told me he had been informed of its existence by
"the head of an East European intelligence agency".
Later, I used an intermediary to pass some questions to active duty CIA officers dealing with
the case file - they would not speak to me directly. I got a message back that there was "more
than one tape", "audio and video", on "more than one date", in "more than one place" - in the
Ritz-Carlton in Moscow and also in St Petersburg - and that the material was "of a sexual nature".
'Be very careful'
The claims of Russian kompromat on Mr Trump were "credible", the CIA believed. That is why
- according to the New York Times and Washington Post - these claims ended up on President Barack
Obama's desk last week, a briefing document also given to Congressional leaders and to Mr Trump
himself.
Mr Trump did visit Moscow in November 2013, the date the main tape is supposed to have been
made. There is TV footage of him at the Miss Universe contest. Any visitor to a grand hotel in
Moscow would be wise to assume that their room comes equipped with hidden cameras and microphones
as well as a mini-bar.
At his news conference, Mr Trump said he warned his staff when they travelled: "Be very
careful, because in your hotel rooms and no matter where you go you're going to probably have
cameras." So the Russian security services have made obtaining kompromat an art form.
One Russian specialist told me that Vladimir Putin himself sometimes says there is kompromat
on him - though perhaps he is joking. The specialist went on to tell me that FSB officers are
prone to boasting about having tapes on public figures, and to be careful of any statements they
might make.
A former CIA officer told me he had spoken by phone to a serving FSB officer who talked about
the tapes. He concluded: "It's hokey as hell."
Mr Trump and his supporters are right to point out that these are unsubstantiated allegations.
But it is not just sex, it is money too. The former MI6 agent's report detailed alleged attempts
by the Kremlin to offer Mr Trump lucrative "sweetheart deals" in Russia that would buy his loyalty.
Mr Trump turned these down, and indeed has done little real business in Russia. But a joint
intelligence and law enforcement taskforce has been looking at allegations that the Kremlin paid
money to his campaign through his associates.
Legal applications
On 15 October, the US secret intelligence court issued a warrant to investigate two Russian
banks. This news was given to me by several sources and corroborated by someone I will identify
only as a senior member of the US intelligence community. He would never volunteer anything -
giving up classified information would be illegal - but he would confirm or deny what I had heard
from other sources.
"I'm going to write a story that says " I would say. "I don't have a problem with that," he
would reply, if my information was accurate. He confirmed the sequence of events below.
Last April, the CIA director was shown intelligence that worried him. It was - allegedly -
a tape recording of a conversation about money from the Kremlin going into the US presidential
campaign.
It was passed to the US by an intelligence agency of one of the Baltic States. The CIA cannot
act domestically against American citizens so a joint counter-intelligence taskforce was created.
The taskforce included six agencies or departments of government. Dealing with the domestic,
US, side of the inquiry, were the FBI, the Department of the Treasury, and the Department of Justice.
For the foreign and intelligence aspects of the investigation, there were another three agencies:
the CIA, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the National Security Agency,
responsible for electronic spying.
Lawyers from the National Security Division in the Department of Justice then drew up an application.
They took it to the secret US court that deals with intelligence, the Fisa court, named after
the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act. They wanted permission to intercept the electronic
records from two Russian banks.
Their first application, in June, was rejected outright by the judge. They returned with a
more narrowly drawn order in July and were rejected again. Finally, before a new judge, the order
was granted, on 15 October, three weeks before election day.
Neither Mr Trump nor his associates are named in the Fisa order, which would only cover foreign
citizens or foreign entities - in this case the Russian banks. But ultimately, the investigation
is looking for transfers of money from Russia to the United States, each one, if proved, a felony
offence.
A lawyer- outside the Department of Justice but familiar with the case - told me that three
of Mr Trump's associates were the subject of the inquiry. "But it's clear this is about Trump,"
he said.
I spoke to all three of those identified by this source. All of them emphatically denied any
wrongdoing. "Hogwash," said one. "Bullshit," said another. Of the two Russian banks, one denied
any wrongdoing, while the other did not respond to a request for comment.
The investigation was active going into the election. During that period, the leader of the
Democrats in the Senate, Harry Reid, wrote to the director of the FBI, accusing him of holding
back "explosive information" about Mr Trump.
Mr Reid sent his letter after getting an intelligence briefing, along with other senior figures
in Congress. Only eight people were present: the chairs and ranking minority members of the House
and Senate intelligence committees, and the leaders of the Democratic and Republican parties in
Congress, the "gang of eight" as they are sometimes called. Normally, senior staff attend "gang
of eight" intelligence briefings, but not this time. The Congressional leaders were not even allowed
to take notes.
'Puppet'
In the letter to the FBI director, James Comey, Mr Reid said: "In my communications with you
and other top officials in the national security community, it has become clear that you possess
explosive information about close ties and co-ordination between Donald Trump, his top advisers,
and the Russian government - a foreign interest openly hostile to the United States, which Mr
Trump praises at every opportunity.
"The public has a right to know this information. I wrote to you months ago calling for this
information to be released to the public. There is no danger to American interests from releasing
it. And yet, you continue to resist calls to inform the public of this critical information."
The CIA, FBI, Justice and Treasury all refused to comment when I approached them after hearing
about the Fisa warrant.
It is not clear what will happen to the inter-agency investigation under President Trump -
or even if the taskforce is continuing its work now. The Russians have denied any attempt to influence
the president-elect - with either money or a blackmail tape.
If a tape exists, the Russians would hardly give it up, though some hope to encourage a disloyal
FSB officer who might want to make some serious money. Before the election, Larry Flynt, publisher
of the pornographic magazine Hustler, put up a million dollars for incriminating tape of Mr Trump.
Penthouse has now followed with its own offer of a million dollars for the Ritz-Carlton tape (if
it exists).
It is an extraordinary situation, 10 days before Mr Trump is sworn into office, but it was
foreshadowed during the campaign.
During the final presidential debate, Hillary Clinton called Donald Trump a "puppet" of Russia's
leader, Vladimir Putin. "No puppet. No puppet," Mr Trump interjected, talking over Mrs Clinton.
"You're the puppet. No, you're the puppet."
In a New York Times op-ed in August, the former director of the CIA, Michael Morell, wrote:
"In the intelligence business, we would say that Mr Putin had recruited Mr Trump as an unwitting
agent of the Russian Federation."
Agent; puppet - both terms imply some measure of influence or control by Moscow.
Michael Hayden, former head of both the CIA and the NSA, simply called Mr Trump a "polezni
durak" - a useful fool.
The background to those statements was information held - at the time - within the intelligence
community. Now all Americans have heard the claims. Little more than a week before his inauguration,
they will have to decide if their president-elect really was being blackmailed by Moscow."
Kocherlakota's argument for fiscal expansion in the US
by Simon Wren-Lewis
Is there a macroeconomic case for tax cuts in the United States right now? Paul Krugman and I
say no, using the following logic. The Fed thinks we are close to full employment, if we use the
term to denote the level of employment that keeps inflation constant. Generalised tax cuts (rather
than just tax cuts to the very rich) will tend to raise aggregate demand, which will lead inflation
to increase. The Fed will therefore raise interest raise rates further to offset this increase in
demand before it happens. As a result, the tax cuts will have no impact on demand, but simply make
funding investment more expense.
There are clear grounds for saying that the Fed is wrong about the economy being close to full
employment, and therefore any increase in aggregate demand from any source would not raise inflation.
But a central bank that acts in the textbook manner will not wait for the higher inflation to materialise,
but will anticipate it because it takes time for interest rates to influence demand and inflation.
As a result, tax cuts will lead to higher interest rates and there will be no net impact on demand.
Narayana Kocherlakota, who used to be on the committee that sets US interest rates, presents another
possible reason why an increase in demand will not raise inflation. He argues that aggregate supply
has been suppressed by low demand, and that rising demand might itself stimulate supply. For example,
a lot of technical innovations might have been shelved while demand was depressed, but would be brought
into production if demand looked like expanding rapidly. As these technical innovations would expand
the capacity of firms to produce more, they would not raise prices as a result of any increase in
demand. As these innovations would produce more from the existing labour force, there would be no
inflation pressure coming from wages either.
If this sounds like wishful thinking, remember than the US economy, like most, is still way below
the level of output that pre-recession trends would have suggested were likely. Did research into
new and better production techniques really slow down substantially during the recession years, or
did the research still take place to be implemented at some later date?
Even if this argument is plausible, and I think it is, it would still be irrelevant if the Fed
didn't make any allowance for it. They would still believe that tax cuts would raise demand and inflation,
and so they would raise interest rates and crowd out any increase in demand. Indeed, if the Fed believed
this 'endogenous supply' argument, they surely wouldn't have raised rates in 2016.
What Kocherlakota wants the Fed to do is follow an approach put forward by Federal Reserve Bank
of Chicago President Charles Evans. He puts the case in this speech. Essentially the Fed should depart
from the usual policy approach of targeting expected inflation, and wait for inflation to actually
rise above target before it raises rates. This would mean that it ignored any fiscal stimulus (whether
it be tax cuts or additional public investment), and focused simply on the actual inflation rate.
If we were in fact below full employment, or if demand created its own supply, the fiscal expansion
would raise output and welfare.
An important point that Kocherlakota makes, and I have made in the past, is that you do not need
to believe with certainty that we are below full employment or that demand will create its own supply.
All you have to do is give it some significant probability of being true. You then look at the costs
and benefits of pursuing an Evans type monetary policy weighted by this probability. A key point
here is that the costs of a short term overshoot of the 2% target are likely to be a lot smaller
than the cost of missing out on a percent or two of national output for potentially some time.
Does this change my views on a prospective Trump stimulus package? Not really. There is a very
strong case for more public sector investment on numerous grounds. But that investment should go
to where it is most needed and where it will be of most social benefit, and I think it is very unlikely
(along with I suspect most economists) that a Trump Presidency and a Republican House can deliver
that. That extra public investment will give the economy the stimulus that could work with an Evans
type monetary policy. From a macroeconomic viewpoint there seems no point in doubling up on stimulus
through tax cuts, and in terms of how the Fed reacts it may even be counterproductive.
SWL agrees with PK's progressive
neoliberal take on the macro situation.
I agree with Kocherlakota, Evans and the notion of
reverse of hysteresis. (If Hillary had won, SWL and PK would be more supportive of that possibility
no doubt.) J.W. Mason has often discussed this idea of full employment and output being a moving
target instead of a hard stop where any increased aggregate demand is just translated into
inflation. It's persuasive to me. Even Yellen has discussed the possibility while of course
the Fed is acting otherwise.
My guess is that Trump's stimulus package will be tax cuts for the rich and nothing on the
spending side except targeted tax cuts for private developers. I don't think Paul Ryan and
the Freedom Caucus will go for government spending and I don't think the Democrats should help
Trump unless Trump does go for significant government spending, which is unlikely.
In that unlikely case - where Dems join with Trump to enact government spending - I would
disagree with SWL and PK. As DeLong and Summers point out, the global economy might be suffering
from the SecStags. What's needed is more public investment and lower rates than progressive
neoliberal Hillary proposed during her campaign. Maybe she had some secret plan to up the ante
after elected but we'll never know.
(PK seems to make a distinction between fiscal expansion and infrastructure spending which
I don't see. Yes building roads is different from giving a tax break to the working poor but
in some ways it's similar in adding to aggregate demand.)
As it is, progressives and socialists should argue for what should be done, not what's politically
possible as Sanjait would have it. One has to move the Overton window as Bernie Sanders did
with his primary campaign. That means being honest.
At the beginning here SWL discusses "monetary offset" - without naming it - which the market
monetarists are always going on about. The Fed has its idea of where employment, inflation
and output should be and will adjust depending on the exchange rate/exports and fiscal policy.
By all accounts Obama's Fed failed. Recovery was too slow. Inflation was regularly under
target. Obama didn't make nominating Fed governors a priority. This isn't being discussed much
as Obama's tenure comes to a close.
Bernie Sanders wrote an Op-Ed arguing that the Fed was too afraid of inflation. Hillary
took the anti-democratic progressive neoliberal view that monetary policy isn't for us plebes
although she was willing to along with a Democratic plan to diversify the Fed. The Fed Up campaign
Dean Baker and Jared Bernstein have written about gives me hope that popular social movements
can arise to pressure the Fed to be more concerned about wages than about inflation and corporate
profits.
"... By Philip Pilkington, a macroeconomist working in asset management and author of the new book The Reformation in Economics: A Deconstruction and Reconstruction of Economic Theory . The views expressed in this interview are not those of his employer ..."
"... The Reformation in Economics ..."
"... Once the theory is assumed to be true it can then be applied everywhere and anywhere in an entirely uncritical manner. Anything can then be interpreted in terms of utility-maximisation. This is most obvious in popular publications like Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything ..."
"... To paraphrase from Yes Minister, real economists don't sully their elevated minds with anything as sordid as data. It's much easier to make a a bunch of unrealistic assumptions, for example "trade deals don't affect trade balance and employment", and just to build their model from there. The fact that these kind of missteps are not stamped out by the profession shows that fire is the only answer. ..."
"... I abandoned Econ. as a major when I was a senior in college (mid 70's) because what was being taught had little to no relationship to what I observed in the real world of human beings (as opposed to the "Homo Economicus" that econ. theory depended on). ..."
In my book
The Reformation in Economics
I take the position that modern
economics is more similar to phrenology than it is to, say, physics. This is
not at all surprising as it grew up in the same era and out of remarkably
similar ideas. But what is surprising is that this is not widely noticed today.
What is most tragic, however, is that there is much in economics that can and
should be salvaged. While these positive aspects of economics probably do not
deserve the title of 'science' they at least provide us with a rational toolkit
that can be used to improve political and economic governance in our societies.
The Ideology at the Heart of Modern Economics
The curious thing about modern economics is its almost complete insularity.
Its proponents appear to have very little notion of how it applies to the real
world. This is not the case in normal sciences. Take physics, for example. It
is extremely clear how, say, the inverse squares law applies to experienced
reality. In the case of gravitation, for example, the inverse squares law makes
experimentally testable predictions about the force exerted by, say, the
gravitational pull between the sun and the earth.
Modern economics – by which I mean neoclassical or marginalist economics
which relies on the notion of utility-maximisation as its central pillar –
completely lacks this capacity to map itself onto the real world.
As philosophers of science like Hans Albert have pointed out
, the theory of
utility-maximisation rules out such mapping
a priori
, thus rendering
the theory completely untestable. Since the theory is untestable it cannot be
falsified and this allows economists to simply
assume
that it is true.
Once the theory is assumed to be true it can then be applied everywhere and
anywhere in an entirely uncritical manner. Anything can then be interpreted in
terms of utility-maximisation. This is most obvious in popular publications
like
Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything
.
Such books read in an almost identical way to the fashionable books of 19
th
century phrenology. The economists address everything from parenting to crime
to the Ku Klux Klan by filtering it through the non-experimental theory of
utility-maximisation – a theory that has not and cannot be verified and so the
author and reader alike take it entirely on trust.
Such systems of ideas are ideological to the core. They are cooked up
independently of the evidence and are then imposed upon the material of
experienced reality. We are encouraged to 'read' the world through the
interpretive lens of economics – and when we ask for evidence that this lens
uncovers factually accurate information we are confounded with circular
arguments from the economists.
Large-scale public policy is also filtered through this lens. This is done
by constraining the study of macroeconomics – that is, GDP growth,
unemployment, inflation and so on – by tying it to the theories of
utility-maximisation. All macroeconomics today must be 'microfounded'. This
means that it must have microeconomic – read: 'utility-maximising' –
foundations. In reality, as I show in the book, these foundations are anything
by 'micro'. Rather, what is done is that the entire economy is seen to be
dominated by a single uber-utility-maximiser and all the conclusions flow from
there.
This may seem like odd stuff but it is built into the theory as a sort of
foundational delusion. The arbitrary, non-empirical theory of
utility-maximisation assumes primacy to all considerations of actual
statistical facts, intuitions about human motivations and even basic
assumptions about what should constitute a properly moral view of man. What we
end up with is not just a crushing, anti-inquiry ideology but also a lumbering
failure of a system of ideas that has no hope in extracting relevant
information about the real world.
What Is To Be Done?
Is economics then to be thought of as a failure? Must we scrap economics and
try to find other ways to describe and address our economic and political
problems? In this regard, my book claims to lay out a new path – albeit one
that has been intuitively followed by some economists, most notably those in
the heterodox camp. This new path is based on two key interrelated premises.
The first is that we have little insight into what actually motivates human
beings. For this reason theories that rest on assumptions about human
motivation – like utility-maximisation – must be thrown out and the study of
the economy must be undertaken by examining large economic aggregates. In
short, micro must be tossed off the throne and the crown must be handed to
macro. The second premise is that we must not be overly concerned with highly
precise 'models' of the economy. Instead we must take what I have come to call
a 'schematic' approach. A schematic approach involves building tools that can
be integrated into how we understand the world around us without assuming that
these tools provide us with an exact description of this world. This schematic
toolkit – which I begin to lay out in the later chapters of the book – can then
be used to approach the study of actual economies.
These may seem like rather simple rules. But when applied to economic theory
they generate rather radical results. At the same time they greatly constrain
the amount of wisdom that we can assume economists to have; given these
premises no book like
Freakonomics
should ever be taken seriously and
should probably even be written in the first place. In that sense, they may
appear to militate against Enlightenment optimism. This may well be so, but I
would argue that they are arrived at through rational Enlightenment-style
inquiry and so should be taken seriously even by proponents of Enlightenment
Progress. After all, phrenology eventually fell in the face of rationalistic
criticism.
In the book some of the issues around uncertainty and free will are also
explored. Implicit in some of the book's central criticisms is that societies
are not to be understood in a deterministic manner. Unlike billiard balls,
social forces are not subject to deterministic laws. In one sense this is
unfortunate as it means that our understandings of social and economic
processes must always be of a contingent and not-too-precise nature. But on the
other hand it is optimistic in the sense that it attributes an agency to human
beings to create the world around them that mainstream marginalist economics
stripped away by imposing the limited utility-maximiser framework on everyone
from Mother Theresa to Hitler.
This also creates an opening for a proper discussion of ethics and morality.
Although this is not dealt with directly in the book – it would surely require
another ten volumes – the framework does reopen awkward questions surrounding
morality and ethics. Some self-professed social scientists, nervous that these
questions have been passed to us from the world religions, would prefer to do
away with any moral and ethical questions. But this was always a fantasy – even
the most hardened anti-ethicist, unless they are serving life for
serial-killing, has a system by which they determine right from wrong.
All that I have said here is rather abstract. But a good portion of the book
is not and I do not want to give that impression. It contains chapters that
deal with inflation, profits, income distribution, income determination,
financial markets, interest rates, investment and employment. It is not simply
a book of methodology but rather one that tries to also provide the basic
building blocks of a theory that can be applied to understand really-existing
economies. In this sense, I hope that it is again more optimistic than many
mainstream economics books that leave the reader without any capacity to apply
the supposed ideas that they have absorbed by reading them beyond mere
chest-puffing at dinner parties and moral condemnations of the social safety
net.
We dont have Departments of Astrology. Just dump it call it business data
and stick it in business schools or departments. It is not science or social
science it is the worst ever pseudoscience with blood all over its hands see
previous post.
You could call it a branch of political "science" (also not a science).
At least it would be honest. Everything proposed or concluded in economics
classes will be known to simply be political preferences or ideas, not real
or valuable beyond that.
A holistic understanding of the natural world is needed, therefore I believe
the first rule of economics that should override all others is one that would
correct the false assumption that humans are separate from our environment and
superior to all other species. That separation and illusion of independence,
particularly endemic to the European mentality, has caused us to denigrate
nature as though we must dominate and subdue it to satisfy our needs and
desires, and the result now in full evidence is the wholesale destruction of
habitat and ecocide that inevitably lead to omnicide. We have allowed our
population to exceed the carrying capacity of the earth and have used
technology without regard for the consequences, thus contradicting the meaning
of homo sapiens and assuring our extinction.
Phillip's comments regarding the "Great Chain of Being" are apropo.
This is "Western" in a sense, "Christian" more particularly. It tells
the underclass they are special while at the same time justifying and
encouraging their subservience (i.e., the underclass is told they are
disconnected on the one hand, but totally "connected" (that is, have a
"place") on the other hand (which they should not try to rise above)).
The implication that other societies where greater "connection" is
somehow recognized are somehow immune to stratification and dominance
by a ruling elite, somehow more "wholesome" or "gentle" or "sane", has
very little evidence in its favor that I have ever seen. It's rather
faddish to criticize "the West" for all the ills of the world. And
"the West" certainly has left a trail of suffering and destruction
across the face of the planet. But other societies have their own
mechanisms for justifying and encouraging subservience. And a
religious "feeling" of the connectedness of all things is not a
substitute for the scientific insights of the discipline of ecology,
brought to us by a "Western" mode of thought and enquiry.
No matter what society we live in, the problem of just governance,
the aggrandizement of the elite and the suffering of the masses,
remains the same.
What passes for the science of economics has become politicized and
scientifically compromised to the point that the only thing that makes sense is
to burn it with fire. Data has stopped playing a role in development of
economic theory and selected snippets of it are occasionally dragged out only
if they support the latest concoction that comes to their mind.
To paraphrase from Yes Minister, real economists don't sully their elevated
minds with anything as sordid as data. It's much easier to make a a bunch of
unrealistic assumptions, for example "trade deals don't affect trade balance
and employment", and just to build their model from there. The fact that these
kind of missteps are not stamped out by the profession shows that fire is the
only answer.
Economics is to ecology as phrenology is to neuroscience?
Always thought the problem was that economics should be descriptive, not
prescriptive. Maybe a parallel in how science came out of "natural philosophy".
In the book some of the issues around uncertainty and free will are also
explored. Implicit in some of the book's central criticisms is that
societies are not to be understood in a deterministic manner. Unlike
billiard balls, social forces are not subject to deterministic laws.
This seems to me to be an over reaction to the specious nature of current
mainstream economics, compounded by a misunderstanding of the role of
determinism and uncertainty in physics. What most characterizes physics is not
the absence of uncertainty, but the specification of it. Just because the
current dominant economic dogma has it wrong is no reason to throw out
determinism.
The analogy to billiard balls is a poor analogy to social systems. The
physical forces that determine an earthquake, for example, may not allow us to
precisely predict the moment in time when the quake will trigger, but that
doesn't make earthquakes "non-deterministic". OK, the point is taken that
societies are not billiard balls. There is still plenty of room to hope that
social forces may be sufficiently specified to allow useful predictions.
Throwing out determinism is not a royal road to morality. The moral quandary of
the present day is how to reconcile determinism and morality, each of us as
individuals and all of us as a society, not to force a choice between them.
Because we are not billiard balls, we do not have to accept that the
morality of society is merely the sum of all the individual moralities of all
the individuals composing it ("market" morality). We can allow for the social
construction of a moral code and the imposition of that code on society's
constituent individuals. None of that necessarily takes us outside of
determinism. Because previous generations got some of the laws of physics wrong
does not mean the laws of physics did not exist at that time. Because current
economists make absurd assumptions does not mean no science of economy is
possible. But a "non-deterministic" 'science' is no science at all.
I abandoned Econ. as a major when I was a senior in college (mid 70's)
because what was being taught had little to no relationship to what I observed
in the real world of human beings (as opposed to the "Homo Economicus" that
econ. theory depended on).
My father made the money that paid for my tuition & books through sales. As
a sales manager for a major insurance co. he was always looking for recruits
who could "sell air conditioners to Eskimos". If, in fact, the "information
symmetry" that econ. theory depends on existed, then his job could not have
existed.
I was also influenced by an econ. prof. who told me that an econ. degree was
worthless unless I wanted to teach it or work for the gov't.
I think most NC readers will understand the "shorthand" phrase "First, assume a
can opener"
Elites always invent ideologies, which are like operating systems, in order
to maintain control over the minds of their subjects. Economics, great chains
of being, Mandate of Heaven. It's all the same.
Does he not understand Science and the Scientific method?
Hypothesis
Thesis
Experiment – Repeatable by independent parties, Experiments.
Proof.
That's Science, That's physics. Read Joule's biography to understand the
method.
Economics is NO science because there is no way to conduct an experiment, a
repeatable experiment.
In addition the mathematicians have discovered and codified Chaos or
Catastrophe Theory, and the attendant Black Swans, in the last 50 years, which
provides a solid foundation to understand economics, and its absolute
unpredictability.
Because us humans are driven by fear and greed, consequently:
Presume a rational actor
(economics 101) is invalid.
There is not ONE mention of chaos in this article, which is the governing
mathematics behind Economics in the world we inhabit, work, play, are born and
die.
There is an old expression:
Before putting pen to paper, please
engage mind.
In an even larger sense, we have substituted ideology for religion. Consider
capitalism, privatization, democracy, the profit motive, materialism, utility
maximisation, and, yes, even the scientific method. We worship these just as
ardently as we did the Grecian or Egyptian pantheon of gods in the years b.c.e.,
and the Christian, Jewish, and Islamic characterizations of god/Allah up to the
present era.
The unquestioning acceptance of these belief systems filters our perceptions
of reality and blinds us to the infinite number of possibilities that exist
outside of those frames of reference. In fact, those systems have indeed become
our religion and stepping outside of them frequently incurs the same stigma and
scorn formerly accorded to religious heretics who were often burned at the
stake. One doesn't need to spend more than a day reading a layperson's guide to
quantum mechanics to get an idea of what happens when you set your mind free of
those confining boxes.
I highly recommend Morris Berman's book,
Coming to Our Senses
, where he traces western history from the beginnings
of Christendom to the modern day in the context of heresy. (That's a simplistic
but reasonably accurate synopsis.) It's a dense read and when I first sat down
with it in the early 90s, I could only manage a few pages at a time and then
had to take two or three days to digest before coming back for more. I read it
again ten years later and it made even more of an impact the second time
around. Without exaggerating, I can honestly say that it profoundly shaped my
world view to the point that I now view all belief systems skeptically and try
to place them in a larger context.
Pilkington's description of economics as an unassailable belief system rings
true to me. Not unlike religion (the Crusades, the Inquisition, the
Conquistadors, right on up to ISIS), economics has wreaked and is wreaking
havoc across the globe. Who knows what wonders await us when we start thinking
out of that box.
A schematic approach involves building tools that can be integrated into
how we understand the world around us without assuming that these tools
provide us with an exact description of this world.
I am perhaps most interested in this. Will look for the book. I always get
something from reading Pilkington's posts.
"... Bill Clinton's generation, however, believed that concentration of financial power could be virtuous, as long as that power was in the hands of experts. They largely dismissed the white working class as a bastion of reactionary racism. Fred Dutton, who served on the McGovern-Fraser Commission in 1970 , saw the white working class as "a major redoubt of traditional Americanism and of the antinegro, antiyouth vote." This paved the way for the creation of the modern Democratic coalition. Obama is simply the latest in a long line of party leaders who have bought into the ideology of these "new" Democrats, and he has governed likewise, with commercial policies that ravaged the heartland. ..."
Democrats can't win until they recognize how bad Obama's financial policies were
He had opportunities to help the working class, and he passed them up.
By Matt Stoller January 12 at 8:25 AM
During his final news conference of 2016, in mid-December, President Obama criticized Democratic
efforts during the election. "Where Democrats are characterized as coastal, liberal, latte-sipping,
you know, politically correct, out-of-touch folks," Obama said, "we have to be in those communities."
In fact, he went on, being in those communities - "going to fish-fries and sitting in VFW halls
and talking to farmers" - is how, by his account, he became president. It's true that Obama is
skilled at projecting a populist image; he beat Hillary Clinton in Iowa in 2008, for instance,
partly by attacking agriculture monopolies .
But Obama can't place the blame for Clinton's poor performance purely on her campaign. On the
contrary, the past eight years of policymaking have damaged Democrats at all levels. Recovering
Democratic strength will require the party's leaders to come to terms with what it has become
- and the role Obama played in bringing it to this point.
Two key elements characterized the kind of domestic political economy the administration pursued:
The first was the foreclosure crisis and the subsequent bank bailouts. The resulting policy framework
of Tim Geithner's Treasury Department was, in effect, a wholesale attack on the American home
(the main store of middle-class wealth) in favor of concentrated financial power. The second was
the administration's pro-monopoly policies, which crushed the rural areas that in 2016 lost voter
turnout and swung to Donald Trump.
Obama didn't cause the financial panic, and he is only partially responsible for the bailouts,
as most of them were passed before he was elected. But financial collapses, while bad for the
country, are opportunities for elected leaders to reorganize our culture. Franklin Roosevelt took
a frozen banking system and created the New Deal. Ronald Reagan used the sharp recession of the
early 1980s to seriously damage unions. In January 2009, Obama had overwhelming Democratic majorities
in Congress, $350 billion of no-strings-attached bailout money and enormous legal latitude. What
did he do to reshape a country on its back?
First, he saved the financial system. A financial system in collapse has to allocate losses.
In this case, big banks and homeowners both experienced losses, and it was up to the Obama administration
to decide who should bear those burdens. Typically, such losses would be shared between debtors
and creditors, through a deal like the Home Owners Loan Corporation in the 1930s or bankruptcy
reform. But the Obama administration took a different approach. Rather than forcing some burden-sharing
between banks and homeowners through bankruptcy reform or debt relief, Obama prioritized creditor
rights, placing most of the burden on borrowers. This kept big banks functional and ensured that
financiers would maintain their positions in the recovery. At a 2010 hearing, Damon Silvers, vice
chairman of the independent Congressional Oversight Panel, which was created to monitor the bailouts,
told Obama's Treasury Department: "We can either have a rational resolution to the foreclosure
crisis, or we can preserve the capital structure of the banks. We can't do both."
Second, Obama's administration let big-bank executives off the hook for their roles in the
crisis. Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) referred criminal cases to the Justice Department and was ignored.
Whistleblowers from the government and from large banks noted a lack of appetite among prosecutors.
In 2012, then-Attorney General Eric Holder ordered prosecutors not to go after mega-bank HSBC
for money laundering. Using prosecutorial discretion to not take bank executives to task, while
legal, was neither moral nor politically wise; in a 2013 poll, more than half of Americans still
said they wanted the bankers behind the crisis punished. But the Obama administration failed to
act, and this pattern seems to be continuing. No one, for instance, from Wells Fargo has been
indicted for mass fraud in opening fake accounts.
Third, Obama enabled and encouraged roughly 9 million foreclosures. This was Geithner's explicit
policy at Treasury. The Obama administration put together a foreclosure program that it marketed
as a way to help homeowners, but when Elizabeth Warren, then chairman of the Congressional Oversight
Panel, grilled Geithner on why the program wasn't stopping foreclosures, he said that really wasn't
the point. The program, in his view, was working. "We estimate that they can handle 10 million
foreclosures, over time," Geithner said - referring to the banks. "This program will help foam
the runway for them." For Geithner, the most productive economic policy was to get banks back
to business as usual.
Nor did Obama do much about monopolies. While his administration engaged in a few mild challenges
toward the end of his term, 2015 saw a record wave of mergers and acquisitions, and 2016 was another
busy year. In nearly every sector of the economy, from pharmaceuticals to telecom to Internet
platforms to airlines, power has concentrated. And this administration, like George W. Bush's
before it, did not prosecute a single significant monopoly under Section 2 of the Sherman Act.
Instead, in the past few years, the Federal Trade Commission has gone after such villains as music
teachers and ice skating instructors for ostensible anti-competitive behavior. This is very much
a parallel of the financial crisis, as elites operate without legal constraints while the rest
of us toil under an excess of bureaucracy.
With these policies in place, it's no surprise that Thomas Piketty and others have detected
skyrocketing inequality, that most jobs created in the past eight years have been temporary or
part time, or that lifespans in white America are dropping . When Democratic leaders don't protect
the people, the people get poorer, they get angry, and more of them die.
Yes, Obama prevented an even greater collapse in 2009. But he also failed to prosecute the
banking executives responsible for the housing crisis, then approved a foreclosure wave under
the guise of helping homeowners. Though 58 percent of Americans were in favor of government action
to halt foreclosures, Obama's administration balked. And voters noticed. Fewer than four in 10
Americans were happy with his economic policies this time last year (though that was an all-time
high for Obama). And by Election Day, 75 percent of voters were looking for someone who could
take the country back "from the rich and powerful," something unlikely to be done by members of
the party that let the financiers behind the 2008 financial crisis walk free.
This isn't to say voters are, on balance, any more thrilled with what Republicans have to offer,
nor should they be. But that doesn't guarantee Democrats easy wins. Throughout American history,
when voters have felt abandoned by both parties, turnout has collapsed - and 2016, scraping along
20-year turnout lows, was no exception. Turnout in the Rust Belt , where Clinton's path to victory
dissolved, was especially low in comparison to 2012.
Trump, who is either tremendously lucky or worryingly perceptive, ran his campaign like a pre-1930s
Republican. He did best in rural areas, uniting white farmers, white industrial workers and certain
parts of big business behind tariffs and anti-immigration walls. While it's impossible to know
what he will really do for these voters, the coalition he summoned has a long, if not recent,
history in America.
Democrats have long believed that theirs is the party of the people. Therefore, when Trump
co-opts populist language, such as saying he represents the "forgotten" man, it seems absurd -
and it is. After all, that's what Democrats do, right? Thus, many Democrats have assumed that
Trump's appeal can only be explained by personal bigotry - and it's also true that Trump trafficks
in racist and nativist rhetoric. But the reality is that the Democratic Party has been slipping
away from the working class for some time, and Obama's presidency hastened rather than reversed
that departure. Republicans, hardly worker-friendly themselves, simply capitalized on it.
There's history here: In the 1970s, a wave of young liberals, Bill Clinton among them, destroyed
the populist Democratic Party they had inherited from the New Dealers of the 1930s. The contours
of this ideological fight were complex, but the gist was: Before the '70s, Democrats were suspicious
of big business. They used anti-monopoly policies to fight oligarchy and financial manipulation.
Creating competition in open markets, breaking up concentrations of private power, and protecting
labor and farmer rights were understood as the essence of ensuring that our commercial society
was democratic and protected from big money.
Bill Clinton's generation, however, believed that concentration of financial power could be
virtuous, as long as that power was in the hands of experts. They largely dismissed the white
working class as a bastion of reactionary racism. Fred Dutton, who served on the McGovern-Fraser
Commission in 1970 , saw the white working class as "a major redoubt of traditional Americanism
and of the antinegro, antiyouth vote." This paved the way for the creation of the modern Democratic
coalition. Obama is simply the latest in a long line of party leaders who have bought into the
ideology of these "new" Democrats, and he has governed likewise, with commercial policies that
ravaged the heartland.
As a result, while our culture has become more tolerant over the past 40 years, power in our
society has once again been concentrated in the hands of a small group of billionaires. You can
see this everywhere, if you look. Warren Buffett, who campaigned with Hillary Clinton, recently
purchased chunks of the remaining consolidated airlines, which have the power not only to charge
you to use the overhead bin but also to kill cities simply by choosing to fly elsewhere. Internet
monopolies increasingly control the flow of news and media revenue. Meatpackers have re-created
a brutal sharecropper-type system of commercial exploitation. And health insurers, drugstores
and hospitals continue to consolidate, partially as a response to Obamacare and its lack of a
public option for health coverage.
Many Democrats ascribe problems with Obama's policies to Republican opposition. The president
himself does not. "Our policies are so awesome," he once told staffers. "Why can't you guys do
a better job selling them?" The problem, in other words, is ideological.
Many Democrats think that Trump supporters voted against their own economic interests. But
voters don't want concentrated financial power that deigns to redistribute some cash, along with
weak consumer protection laws. They want jobs. They want to be free to govern themselves. Trump
is not exactly pitching self-government. But he is offering a wall of sorts to protect voters
against neo-liberals who consolidate financial power, ship jobs abroad and replace paychecks with
food stamps. Democrats should have something better to offer working people. If they did, they
could have won in November. In the wreckage of this last administration, they didn't.
As Finland tests a program to give a universal basic
income to unemployed citizens, many wonder if a similar
initiative could work in the United States. Here are some
pros and cons of such a program:
PRO
Would make people feel valued by their government in
precise capitalist terms they can understand
Privileged elite no longer the only ones with access
to Pizza Hut Triple Treat Box
Whole basic human dignity thing
Opens up more opportunities to use the phrase "sucking
at the government's teat"
The look on some rich prick's face hearing about this
for the first time
More marks for your pyramid scheme
CON
System can be exploited by "welfare queens" who live
lavishly on the spoils of their $500 monthly allotment
Recipients might lose sight of the value of hard work,
the most noble and treasured aspect of American life
Would take forever to sign all those checks
Encourages entrepreneurship among dumb$sses who dream
of opening a f!@#ing cupcake truck or some other bull!@#$t
The long-term effects of bestowing lower class with a
sense of dignity are currently unknown
Leveling the playing field would be detrimental to the
vast minority of Americans
Today Jared Bernstein (see sidebar on right of this blog)
questions Paul Krugman's sudden concern about crowding
out. I agree.
In the first place, conditions have not
changed drastically in the last two months. Krugman's
would have more credibility on this subject had he voiced
similar concerns at any point before the election. I don't
remember him having any problems with Hillary's
infrastructure spending plan for example.
Also, looking at two of my favorite metrics for
underemployment -- Not in Labor Force but Want a Job Now,
and Part Time for Economic reasons -- are each about
1,000,000 above their numbers in the late 1990s and the
2005-06 peaks. Since the jobs situation is clearly
decelerating from its peak two years ago, I do not believe
this 2,000,000 shortfall is ever going to be filled before
the next recession.
In short, I really don't see the basis for a "crowding
out" argument at this time.
If we are below full employment (I think we are in part
for reasons you note) then concerns about crowding out are
indeed premature. But if we were at full employment (again
I have my doubts) then this issue should be part of (not
the end all) policy discussions.
A new study
published by the McKinsey Global Institute estimates the
U.S. holds between 54 million and 68 million "independent
workers," which it defines as "someone who chooses how
much to work and when to work, who can move between jobs
fluidly and who has multiple employers or clients over the
course of the year." It includes individuals working on
short-term contracts and those who rent or sell goods and
services.
"A full-time job with one employer has been considered
the norm for decades, but increasingly, this fails to
capture how a large share of the workforce makes a
living," the report said. "Digital platforms are
transforming independent work, building on the ubiquity of
mobile devices, the enormous pools of workers and
customers they can reach and the ability to harness rich
real-time information to make more efficient matches." ...
To me the "crowding out" argument put forward by Krugman
and conservative economists demonstrates a bias against
the government. They want monetary policy not fiscal
policy to be the means by which investment and employment
levels are managed by the government.
J.W. Mason has
interesting blog post about the Zero Lower Bound.
"In the dominant paradigm, this is a specific technical
problem of getting interest rates below zero. Solve that,
and we are back in the comfortable Walrasian world. But
for those of us on the heterodox side, it is never the
case that the central bank can reliably keep output at
potential - maybe because market interest rates don't
respond to the policy rate, or because output doesn't
respond to interest rates, or because the central bank is
pursuing other objectives, or because there is no
well-defined level of "potential" to begin with. (Or, in
reality, all four.) So what people like Gourinchas and
Rey, or Paul Krugman, present as a special, temporary
state of the economy, we see as the general case.
One way of looking at this is that the ZLB is a device
to allow economists like Krugman and Gourinchas and Rey -
who whatever their scholarly training, are aware of the
concrete reality around them - to make Keynesian arguments
without forfeiting their academic respectability."
What's shocking to me is that, according to 'liberal'
economists like PK and pgl, the goal of monetary and
fiscal policy is not just full employment but rising real
wages.
So far the economy has somehow managed to reach
low unemployment, though nowhere near maximum employment
(the Fed's mandate.) And real wages, except for
supervisory personnel, have yet to show real growth.
Nonetheless PK and pgl want to preempt any move to
maximum employment and rising real wages by advocating
that Trump avoid any fiscal stimulus!!!
Methinks that these 'liberals' are really conservatives
in sheeps clothing...or maybe working in New York has
given them too close an affinity to the Wall Street
worldview.
The common thread between your comment and Peter K's, I
think, is that there is intelligent deficit spending and
then there is counterproductive deficit spending.
It's
pretty clear that significant infrastructure spending,
like the building of canals in the 19th century (because
water transportation is so cheap in terms of energy
needs), doesn't crowd out, because of all of the growth it
produces. On the other hand, if government just gives away
money that will be parked unproductively, that will tend
to crowd out.
The bottom line is that Krugman's concern is premature.
There may be a hidden agenda, of course, that his real
concern is that the GOP wants big deficits in order to
"starve the beast" and attempt to justify cuts in programs
like social insurance.
Exactly. I prefer Bernie's approach: work with Trump if he
wants to improve the lives of ordinary Americans, oppose
him if he simply wants to enrich the wealthy.
Stimulus
that boosts employment and wages is still needed. Opposing
any stimulus now is not appropriate.
I expect enough Democrats will be readily available to
assist Trump. If not, there are parliamentary procedures
that can be used...procedures that Democrats refused to
sully themselves using for the common good.
"if government just gives away money that will be parked
unproductively, that will tend to crowd out."
I guess I
agree with you that government or private investment has
to be judged on the merits of each case.
But just look at the epic housing bubble. It would have
been better if the government had taken that money and
just gave it out to the average citizen to spend.
I think Krugman is basically lobbying for the Fed to
Volckerize any potential positive economic impact of Trump
spending with a big anti-inflationary rate hike, which he
& his party cronies can then blame on crowding out and the
"market" response to excessive government borrowing. They
want a quick hard recession that they can use to win
Congress in 2018. Remember that the orthodox BS about
monetary policy is that the Fed doesn't in any way set,
determine or engineer rates, but just uses
anti-price-stickiness nudges to help the market achieve
the "neutral" equilibrium rate rate it is in some sense
"trying" to get to on its own. So, if the Fed trashes the
economy, they & Krugman will say its hands are clean.
Remember:
1. Krugman is a party hack in the first place;
2. Krugman represents the faction of the party that has
no solid ideas about how to fix what is wrong with our
country and our planet; so they can only succeed
politically if the other side fails worse;
3. Krugman is on record as believing that the US has
suffered something like a coup engineered by a conspiracy
between the FBI and Vladimir Putin. So at this point,
given the politically extreme circumstances he thinks
prevail, there is no reason to think he is beyond making
things up for the cause, as exigencies require.
Of course you are right, Krugman advocates different
economics depending on whether a Democrat or Republican is
in office.
But I am not strongly against the idea of the
Fed raising rates too quickly, despite the morale
shadiness of the idea.
They seem intent on doing it anyway even if Hillary had
won.
Yes ultimately I guess I would be in favor Yellen
"helping" Trump (or low wage workers) as Trump regularly
accused her of doing for Obama during the campaign.
It would improve workers' bargaining power and lives.
But a Republican loss in 2018 would also help.
Hobson's choice. Pick your poison.
More fundamentally, I think Krugman is pushing a
conservative view of economics which happens to line up
with mainstream academic economics.
"More fundamentally, I think Krugman is pushing a
conservative view of economics which happens to line up
with mainstream academic economics."
Yes, this is a real
problem. Krugman has a fundamentally conservative ("New
Keynesian") view of the economy and how it should work.
It's a free enterprise & market economy that generally
just needs some helpful stimulatory nudges from the
government: monetary nudges most of the time; fiscal
nudges when we're in the special circumstances of a
liquidity trap.
The problem is that by laying down all of these
orthodox, conservative markers, our ability to do anything
truly dramatic and socially innovative is damaged over the
long haul.
New Keynesianism was neither Keynesian
nor New Classical, but somewhere in between the two. It
modified the New Classical approach based on rational
expectations and efficient markets by accepting that
prices were sometimes sticky in the short run and markets
sometimes imperfect. Two of the leading figures of New
Keynsianism were Paul Krugman and Gregory Mankiw.
Ultimately, the differences between the New Classicals
and the New Keynsianians are relatively minor. Both accept
the long-run optimizing efficiency of a liberal capitalist
economy, but disagree only over how much government and
central bank gear-greasing is needed.
Krugman is not really an old-fashioned Keynesianism. He
was one of the creators of "New Keynesiansim". Also read
his introduction to Keynes's General Theory. He pours cold
water on the really important policy suggestions at the
end of the book in Book VI, which he mistakenly suggests
Keynes's did not seriously intend.
Even more
old-fashioned "Hicksian" Old Keynesianism is just one
version of conventional liberal macro, which is primarily
a tool for the countercyclical stabilization of our
day-to-day capitalist economy. That's not enough to fix
what is wrong with our planet or or domestic society, both
of which are facing deeper, more structural economic
crises that are very grave. We're going to have to be much
more radical and ambitious.
"One implication Paul
draws from these dynamics is that Republicans, motivated
not by improving the economy but by bashing Obama and the
D's, inveighed against deficits when we needed them and
are about to shift to not caring about them when deficits
– again, according to the model – could actually do some
harm.
But how reliable is this crowd-out hypothesis? It's
actually pretty hard to find a correlation between larger
budget deficits and higher interest rates in the data.
...
So is Paul making a mistake to continue to depend on
the model that has heretofore served him-and anyone else
willing to listen-so well? My guess is that deficit
crowd-out is not likely to be a big problem, as in posing
a measurable threat to growth, anytime soon, even if
deficits, which are headed up anyway according to CBO,
were to rise more than expected.
The global supply of loanable funds is robust and, in
recent years, rising rates have drawn in more capital
(pushing out the LM curve). Larger firms have enjoyed many
years of profitability without a ton of investment so they
could use retained earnings (the fact of unimpressive
investment at very low rates presents another challenge to
this broad model). And most importantly, while we're
surely closer to full employment, there are still a lot of
prime-age workers who could be drawn in to the job market
if demand really did accelerate.
(This, by the way, is the only part of Paul's rap today
that I found a bit confusing. He's a strong advocate of
the secular stagnation hypothesis, wherein secular forces
suppress demand and hold rates down, even in mature
recoveries. His prediction today seems at odds with that
view.)"
Bernstein isn't that radical. He was chief economist
for Joe Biden in the White House.
I think the epic housing bubble, financial crisis and
slow recovery are causing to people to push back against
the New Keynesian compromise and search for a better
economics, which just may be an older type of economics.
This is incorrect. Full Time employment has accelerated
after a slowdown earlier this year while part time
employment yry was noticeably lower in the 4th quarter.
That created the illusion of slowdown in NFP. The U-6 was
quite quite different.
This will probably reverse in the first half of 2017 as
yry full time employment growth goes ahead of 2016
boosting overhead NFP and continuing to lower U-6 down to
8.7-8% by June.
You are undermining your argument with those graphs. The
point is, NFP will likely reaccelerate unless there is
another slowdown. Most likely that gap will close in the
coming year.
I think need to let the inventory slump go. It was a
mistake and it being recorrected.
New Deal democrat -> John San Vant...
, -1
I hope I am wrong and you are right.
But ... If you
check out YoY growth in payrolls, it tends to be very
regular and in-noisy, peaking in roughly mid-cycle. The
only exceptions have been where we managed to avoid a
recession during a Fed tightening cycle.
YoY employment peaked at the end of 2014, and has been
decelerating ever since. So unfortunately I disagree with
you.
As the candidates for the next NEC chair narrow, a debate
has erupted regarding the suitability of candidates either
too directly related to former US Treasury Secretary Robert
Rubin or Wall Street. Mark Thoma came out first:
I still think a break from the Wall Street connected side
of the Clinton administration would have political value.
Brad DeLong subsequently declared his support for Gene
Sperling. Next up was Felix Salmon, who, like Thoma, notes
that the three leading candidates, Gene Sperling, Roger
Altman, and Richard Levin, are all "multi-millionaires with
close ties to Wall Street." He singles out Sperling for a
particularly harsh criticism, first questioning the nature of
Sperling's ties to Wall Street:
...there's Sperling, who in some ways is the worst of the
three when it comes to grubbing money from Wall Street.
Salmon relies on Ezra Klein to paint a picture of Sperling
as a low-class influence peddler, and then extends his attack
to Sperling's competence:
Noam Scheiber does his best to defend Sperling, but is far
from persuasive-the general picture he paints is of a man
whose heart might be in the right place but who never seems
to get anything done. The last time he was at the NEC he sat
quietly by while Treasury pushed through various deregulatory
measures; within the Obama administration his main claim to
fame seems to be the bank tax, which never actually got
enacted.
Finally, he echo's Thoma's concerns:
More generally, Sperling has done nothing to counter the
general impression that he's one of many Rubinites in the
administration, in the context of a political atmosphere
where one of the few points of agreement between the right
and left is that the departure of Summers can and should be
taken as an opportunity to finally put as much distance
between Obama and Rubin as possible.
This elicits a response from DeLong, who defines himself
as a long-time Rubinite and launches into a spirited defense
of Rubin:
Robert Rubin went to work for the Clinton Administration
in 1993 with four goals: (1) to make the decision-making
process work smoothly; (2) to match the tax revenues of the
federal government to its spending commitments; (3) to make
the tax and transfer system more progressive so that people
like him paid more and America's working class paid less; and
(4) to make the financial system work more smoothly and
transparently and so diminish the rents earned because of
market position and institutional connections by people like
him.
(1), (2), and (3) were big successes. (4) was a
failure--the belief that financial deregulation would
diminish Wall Street payouts because organizations like
Goldman Sachs would face new competition from deep-pocket
commercial banks--turned out to be wrong. Why it was wrong I
do not understand. But it was a failure. However, it was not
a catastrophic failure--it was not the repeal of
Glass-Steagall that caused our current downturn, but rather
other and different regulatory failures long after Rubin had
left office...
DeLong does acknowledge that Citigroup shareholders have a
legitimate gripe, and so do the American people:
I think that if you are an American or a citizen of the
world you have a beef with Rubin for believing--as I did--in
the "Greenspanist" doctrine that the Federal Reserve had the
tools to put a firewall between finance and employment and
should thus regard bubbles principally with benign neglect.
What I find curious is that DeLong neglects to mention
what I believe was a central element of the Rubin agenda, and
an element that was in fact the most disastrous in the long
run - the strong Dollar policy.
The strong Dollar policy takes shape in 1995. At that
point, Rubin made it clear that the rest of the world was
free to manipulate the value of the US Dollar to pursue their
own mercantilist interests. This should have been more
obvious at the time given that China was last named a
currency manipulator in 1994, but the immensity of that
decision was lost as the tech boom engulfed America.
Moreover, Rubin adds insult to injury in the Asian
Financial Crisis, by using the IMF as a club to enact far
reaching reforms on nations seeking aid. The lesson learned -
never, ever run a current account deficit. Accumulating
massive reserves is the absolute only way to guarantee you
can always tell the nice men from the IMF and the US Treasury
to get off your front porch.
In effect, Rubin encourages the US to unilaterally enact a
new Plaza Accord on itself. Michael Pettis reminds us of what
the Plaza Accord meant for Japan:
Not only did Tokyo wait way too long to begin the
rebalancing process, but when the rest of the world (i.e. the
US) refused to absorb its huge and expanding trade surplus
and forced up the value of the yen, Tokyo made things worse –
it counteracted the impact of the rising yen by expanding
investment, expanding credit, and lowering interest rates.
This accelerated Japan's structural imbalances, set off a
further frenzied rise in asset prices and capacity, and
worsened the eventual adjustment. This also seems to have
happened after China began revaluing the RMB after July 2005.
This sounds like an eerily similar story. To counteract
the impact of the rising trade deficit, US policymakers
increasingly relied on asset bubbles to support domestic
demand. It goes beyond benign neglect, which assumes you know
acknowledge you have a bubble. US policymakers didn't even
see the train wreck ahead. They simply enjoyed the fruits of
the bubble thinking it reflected sound economic policy. Back
to 2005:
Ben S. Bernanke does not think the national housing boom
is a bubble that is about to burst, he indicated to Congress
last week, just a few days before President Bush nominated
him to become the next chairman of the Federal Reserve.
U.S. house prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the
past two years, noted Bernanke, currently chairman of the
president's Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to
Congress's Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he
said, "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as
strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new
households.
At least Japan had the excuse that they were forced into
the Plaza Accord, perhaps justifiably given their expanding
current account surplus of the time. Rubin has no such excuse
- the strong dollar policy was entirely a self inflicted
wound that goes far beyond simple "benign neglect" of
bubbles. To be sure, Yves Smith argues in Econned that Asian
central banks were threatening to sell Dollar assets, but
adds that the main motivation was supporting Japan. Most
importantly, Rubin entirely missed how Chinese policymakers
would take advantage of America's newfound love for an
artificially strong currency.
But did he really miss it? Wall Street was making money
hand over foot intermediating the current account deficit,
which raises the question that many of us still have: Was
Rubin working for the American people or Wall Street? As far
as I can tell, the greatest coup of the last two decades was
how easily Wall Street managed to secure the support of
Democrats, knowing of course they always had the support of
Republicans.
And what has been the ultimate achievement then of the
Rubin era? A lost decade for jobs and industrial production
and a massively unbalanced global economy. The promised
compensating job surge in other sectors has so far been
absent. Ultimately, didn't Rubin simply lay the foundation
for today's economy that is decried by DeLong?:
From here it does look like a two-tier, profit-driven
recovery--no parking places within a quarter mile of Tiffanys
and long lines at Williams and Sonoma and Sur la Table, with
people buying $12 cans of almond paste, while some of my
daughter's high school classmates are now being told they
cannot afford to go to college next year.
And by the way, it is not clear that we did China any
favors either by the strong Dollar policy, as they are now
faced with a massive internal rebalancing act - there is no
guarantee anymore that China is the future, nor that China
will escape the fate of Japan.
I agree with DeLong that being associated with the Wall
Street, the Clinton Administration in general and Rubin in
particular should not alone disqualify one from serving in
the Obama Administration. But we shouldn't give Rubin a free
pass either. The strong dollar policy reinforced and
entrenched massive and disruptive distortions to patterns of
global consumption and production. Unwinding those
disruptions is proving to be very costly. The long-term
impact of the strong Dollar policy needs to be counted among
Rubin's legacies.
Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose. The Wall Street
banking cartel controls the Fed, Treasury, and the NEC...but
it's only bad, according to 'liberal' economists when a
Republican appoints these guys...Obama got shielded from
criticism.
lol,wall street banking cartel has controlled everything from
the 19th century commodity money to BW to the modern dollar
standard every since Andrew Jackson gave them the power in
the 1830's in the US. Of course New York replaced London in
the 1930's.
Bill Clinton is to Ronald
Reagan as Dwight D. Eisenhower was to Franklin D. Roosevelt.
And as the Wisconsin Recall recedes into history's
rearview mirror, Barack Obama and the Stealth Socialism he
represents is nowhere but in trouble.
Which is exactly why all of these stories about the sub
rosa rivalry between ex-President Clinton and President Obama
are so relevant, not to mention important to understand.
First, Ike and FDR.
Dwight D. Eisenhower famously rode into the White House in
1952 as a genuine American hero. While other presidents had
distinguished war records, only a small handful had to that
point entered the presidency celebrated for their military
genius. ...
Ike was the man behind D-Day, indisputably one of the
central events in ending World War II. He had a fabulous grin
and a likeable personality - not for nothing his campaign's
famous slogan, "I Like Ike."
But a political thinker Ike was not, nor did he pretend to
be one.
In 1952, the Republican Party had been out of the White
House for 20 years. In the space of those 20 years Americans
had become convinced that the liberal theory of Big
Government - aka the New Deal of Franklin Roosevelt and the
Fair Deal of Harry Truman - was the wave of the future.
Modernity was here - and Big Government was its name.
In 1936, 1940, 1944 and 1948 the GOP had begun a conscious
shift to acceptance of what Barry Goldwater would later scorn
as the "dime store New Deal." The Big Government idea was
accepted as political gospel - and GOP progressives or
liberals believed that the route to political success for
both the GOP and country was to simply swallow the concept
whole. ...
Eisenhower was very much in the moderate Republican role.
Not as a result of any thorough study of political philosophy
- he was a student of matters military. But to the extent he
had thought politics through, Ike was a thorough-going
moderate. Like Hoover, Eisenhower too was a favorite of
Democrats, many of whom wanted to draft him to replace Truman
atop the 1948 Democratic ticket. By 1952 his biggest backers
included Dewey and Massachusetts GOP liberal Senator Henry
Cabot Lodge. His biggest opponent was famously Ohio's
conservative "Mr. Republican" Senator Robert Taft. ...
Which brings us to Bill Clinton.
By the time Clinton took office as the first Democrat to
succeed Ronald Reagan, the consensus over the role of Big
Government had been irretrievably smashed. In its place stood
the new consensus - the Reagan Consensus. An understanding
that taxes must be kept low to encourage economic growth -
and that spending had to be restrained.
No one was more acutely aware of this than Bill Clinton
himself. He had in fact spent years positioning himself as a
"centrist" or "New Democrat." Working with the centrist
Democratic Leadership Council, Clinton fought to give the
Democrats a more moderate veneer after years of McGovern,
Carter, Mondale, and Dukakis had left Americans with the
realization that Liberalism was hopelessly captured by
tax-and-spend special interests - with public employee unions
at the top of the list.
Yet once elected president, Clinton plunged into the
presidency as an activist Democrat in the mold of his hero
JFK, With a bust of FDR on his desk, Clinton and wife Hillary
spent two years fighting the Reagan Consensus with
"HillaryCare" - a government-controlled health care system.
They failed. According to aide George Stephanopoulos, the
quickly frustrated President Clinton was grousing that he was
being forced to behave as an "Eisenhower Republican."
He wasn't happy - but if he were going to win re-election
Bill Clinton was determined to get on with accommodating the
Reagan Consensus.
By 1995, with the 1994 Gingrich-led sweep of Congress on a
Reaganesque platform now a fact, Clinton formally
acknowledged the new consensus - the Reagan Consensus. "The
era of Big Government is over," he proclaimed in his State of
the Union message. ...
"According to aide George Stephanopoulos, the quickly
frustrated President Clinton was grousing that he was being
forced to behave as an "Eisenhower Republican.""
This is
the episode certain progressive neoliberals refuse to
acknowledge.
Rubin and Greenspan convinced Clinton to drop his middle
class spending bill campaign promise in favor of deficit
reduction and bending to the wishes of the bond market.
James Carville mockingly quipped that now he wanted to be
reincarnated as the bond market. "You can intimidate
anybody."
Private sector investment over government spending with
all sorts of academic economics as rationale.
Government debt would "crowd out' private investment.
Krugman proclaims the Clinton era a Nirvana.
"Note that the dollar rose by more than 40
percent from the start of 1996 to its peak in 2002. That was
the strong dollar policy of then Treasury Secretary Robert
Rubin. This also was when our trade deficit started to
explode. Do folks remember all the people screaming against
Rubin pushing a strong dollar because of the harm it would do
to the countries in the developing world with dollar
denominated debt? Yeah, I can't quite remember that either."
Brad Setser directs out attention to our exports - which he
notes are not growing in large part due to the dollar
appreciation. OK, imports are growing which is not a surprise
for two reasons - that dollar appreciation once again and the
growth in overall US real GDP. Now if we can only get real
GDP to grow and the dollar to devalue. But that ain't
happening with Trump's proposed policies. Of course my last
statement will likely upset the feelings of certain trolls
here. So be it.
The housing bubble was the next to last(I would argue
Commodities was the last bubble in total in that wave)
credit sigma wave that began in 1973. The blowoff peak
between 1997-06 was seen in the abnormal surge in consumer
spending in the US(which also corresponded to the a quick
debasement of US industrial production that was little
surprise as competition for sales was intense).
I agree that government housing programs were not the main
problem, but I doubt that better regulation would have
made that much difference. I think international capital
flows were more important. Krugman and Wells apparently
are also skeptical of the regulation argument. Poor
regulation didn't help, but it was not the main driver.
The 'global savings glut' was more central. Keynes seemed
to cast a jaundiced eye on such flows in the wake of he
Great Depression.
Global savings was a feature, not a cause. without the
credit bubble, there is no global savings glut, but no
consumption boom either.
International capital flows just got out of control and
were already starting to bubble by the mid-70's. Funny it
is, promoting more "protectionist" policy up to 2006 may
have been beneficial slowing down these capital flows.
Now they would backfire when coupled with
liberal(classical) economics and trigger another global
recession. Which is why JohnH and PeterK better watch it.
Course, this totally ignores the fact that in 2002, the
Bush Admin took regulation of national banks away from the
states.
That was a huge contributor to the lack of
regulation. Also add in the Justice Department failing to
follow up on the FBI warning of regular fraud in the
market in 2004. The letter signed by 11,000 appraisers
complaining about the illicit solicitation of the banks
for the "right number" that was ignored. Course, then we
have the credit rating agency fraud which was also
apparent.
Come to think of it, it was all about regulatory
failure.
BTW, Do you know it is fraud to put an income down on a
stated income app that is not true? That not many
hairdressers or barbers(stylists) make a couple of hundred
gs a year?
That misstating the purpose of a property is also
illegal? And that a underwriter can figure that out in
about 5 minutes?
Look you needed the cash to lend, but you needed a
borrower. Investment banks fraudulently created AAA
buyers. And they were allowed to do it.
1) even if there were
no fraudulent mortgages at all, but housing values rose
way above fundamentals anyway and crashed, would we still
have had a financial crisis and recession? I think the
answer is clearly yes.
2) was the actual rise in prices the result only of
fraudulent mortgages or instead a classic price bubble
driven by momentum trading and poor analysis of price
fundamentals? This one is a harder question, but I think
the answer is the latter.
I wouldn't concede the point that better regulation
*could* have made much difference, but you bring up a very
important point about international capital flows.
Big
international capital flows do stupid things. They are
commonly associated with financial crises. The big demand
for MBS was driven largely by international capital flows,
and that was the fuel for the mortgage issuance that fed
the bubble.
The cause of the crash was $4.00/gallon gasoline. At those
prices the economic model contracts, affecting the low
income workers first, those who were most likely to have
trouble paying their mortgage. Watch what happens to the
economy the next time we get to $4.00/gallon gasoline.
"But when it comes to the financial crisis, government
wasn't the problem. It was lack of government,
specifically the failure to impose the necessary
regulatory structure on the shadow banking system.
I can't put the entire blame on Republicans for the
failure to regulate the financial system because Democrats
also supported reduced regulation based on the idea the
markets, especially ones with so much at stake, are
self-regulating."
I think it did have to do with regulations, like limits
on leverage and being able to borrow against the
increasing value of your home. (This wasn't the case with
the tech stock bubble.)
There are more esoteric arguments about the global
savings glut and how the trade deficit and lack of fiscal
action (balanced budgets) led to too much monetary policy
and private sector demand (without proper regulation)
which in turn led to asset bubbles.
As Dean Baker has repeated it would have helped if the
Fed and regulators acknowledged the existence of the
bubble before was too late and talked it down.
Instead Bernanke famously said it was contained to
subprime.
DeLong suggests the bubble was slowly deflating on its own
but the financial crisis caused the system to
short-circuit and collapse as panic grew in an old
fashioned bank run on the shadow banking system.
Greenspan never thought to regulate the growing shadow
banking system.
DeLongs full of shit. The financial crisis was made from
the bubble. There was no way that was going to deflate
slowly. Once the margin call on the credit was made, it
was crash city.
Your bubble was popping up well before
any deregulation started. The Carter bubble was actually
the first bubble in a long sea of bubbles.
I will back that. The Ford/Carter expansion was the first
real wave of actual US industrial offshoring to boost
consumer spending. There was definitely a connection
between the rise of the credit bubble and offshoring. The
need to boost sales was permanently entrenched and
Volcker's rate hikes to "quell" inflation helped spur the
bubble even more.
Because its what they want to believe, GOP hacks blame
regulatory policy from the late 70s and late 90s for the
housing bubble in the mid-2000s. So what if it doesn't
line up with reality at all?
Thoma gives a good rundown
though on causes.
One word of caution - the word "regulation" can mean a
lot of different things in this context, and it really
does matter to past and future crashes what type of
regulations we're talking about.
A strong case can be made that lack of regulation on
mortgage origination contributed to the bubble, by feeding
speculative demand.
Though it seems to me that, as Schoar argues in the
link MT provides, it really wasn't a bubble and pop
isolated to subprime. The bubble encompassed perfectly
sound (seeming at the time) mortgages including prime
borrowers. Prices went up way beyond fundamentals broadly,
across income groups, borrower types and in many
geographic regions. Even the tightest plausible
regulations on mortgage issuance wouldn't stop that.
Schoar also argues that we lacked macroprudential
policy, which sounds absolutely right to me. The best way
to deal with bubbles is to pre-contain the damage, by
forcing firms to self insure by maintaining higher capital
ratios, and making certain resolution authority can be
administered efficiently ahead of time.
This, btw, has little to do with the common refrain
about "breaking up the banks" and reinstating Glass
Steagall, which really is neither necessary nor sufficient
as a macroprudential tool for mitigating such systemic
risk.
EMichael -> sanjait...
, -1
There are all kinds of subprime.
The uneducated believe
subprime means bad credit. While that can be true, there
are other definitions. "Alt A" was a term also used.
There are only three main parts to a finance deal.
Credit. DTI. LTV.
The banks screwed with two out of three. And even
worse, they screwed with LTV with the incredible use of
piggyback HE loans.
I'm an investor and I am buying a loan(simplified, they
were all grouped together in an abs) I beleive is an 80%
LTV with a DTI of 45%, I am willing to buy that loan at a
low price.
What I got was a first with 80% DTI on a house where
the appraisal was fiction; the buyer was mortgaged 100% of
that fictional value; more than likely(way more than half)
the buyer was an investor, not a homeowner); and my DTI
was totally out of hand and made up.
The classic example of industrial-era price fixing dates back to a series of
dinners hosted amid the 1907 financial panic by Elbert Gary, then chairman of
US
Steel. In a narrow first-floor ballroom at New
York's Waldorf Astoria Hotel, men controlling 90 per cent of the nation's steel
output revealed to each other their respective wage rates, prices and "all
information concerning their business", one attendee recalled. Gary's aim was
to stabilise falling prices. The government later sued, saying that the dinner
talks - the first of several over a four-year period - showed that
US
Steel was an illegal monopoly.
Algorithms render obsolete the need for such face-to-face plotting. Pricing
tools scour the internet for competitors' prices, prowl proprietary databases
for relevant historical demand data, analyse digitised information and arrive
at pricing solutions within milliseconds - far faster than any flesh-and-blood
merchant could. That should, in theory, result in lower prices and wider
consumer choice. Algorithms raise antitrust concerns only in certain
circumstances, such as when they are designed explicitly to facilitate
collusion or parallel pricing moves by competitors.
a German software application that tracks petrol-pump prices. Preliminary
results suggest that the app discourages price-cutting by retailers, keeping
prices higher than they otherwise would have been. As the algorithm instantly
detects a petrol station price cut, allowing competitors to match the new price
before consumers can shift to the discounter, there is no incentive for any
vendor to cut in the first place.
"Algorithms are sharing information so quickly that consumers are not aware
of the competition," says Mr Stucke. "Two gas stations that are across the
street from each other are already familiar with this." This episode suggests
that the availability of perfect information, a hallmark of free market theory,
might harm rather than empower consumers. If the concern is borne out, a
central assumption of the digital economy - that technology lowers prices and
expands choices - could be upended.
The argument here, if it is right, is twofold. One – that even without direct
collusion, firms' best strategy may be to act
as if
they are colluding by
maintaining higher prices. Firms have a much weaker temptation to 'defect' from an
entirely implicit bargain by lowering their prices so as to attract more
customers, since there are unlikely to be significant gains from so doing, even in
the short run. The plausible equilibrium is something that might be described as
distributed oligopoly. Harrison White once defined a market as being a "tangible
clique of producing firms, observing each other in the context of an aggregate set
of buyers." With super-cheap information, it doesn't have to be a clique any more
to be tangible.
The second is that where there
is
direct collusion, the information
burden on regulators is much higher. For example, one may plausibly imagine that
oligopoly-type outcomes might emerge as a second-order outcome of the aggregated
behavior of automated agents. One might also imagine that it might be possible
artfully to tweak these agents' behavior in such a way that this will indeed be
the most likely result. However, proving
ex post
that this was indeed the
intent will likely at best require a ton of forensic resources, and at worst may
be effectively impossible.
NB that both of these can happen
entirely independently
of traditional
arguments about concentration and monopoly/oligopoly – even if Amazon, Google,
Facebook, Uber etc suddenly and miraculously disappeared, these kinds of
distributed or occulted oligopoly problems would be untouched. If you take this
set of claims seriously (the evidence presented in the FT piece still looks
tentative tentative), then the most fundamental problem that the Internet poses is
not one of network advantage, increasing returns to scale and so on advantaging
big players (since, with a non-supine anti-trust authority, these could in
principle be addressed). It's the problem of how radically cheaper communication
makes new forms of implicit and explicit collusion possible at scale, squeezing
consumers.
Fascinating. It's worth recalling in this regard the old argument from
Friedman, according to which monopolies may be acceptable in free markets
because monopolists have incentive to behave "as if" there is competition
(since overcharging may create openings for new competitors).
I frequently see pairs of gas stations across the street from each other with
consistent, significant price differences. (And not just in places like
downtown San Francisco where you have to drive seven blocks to make a left
turn, but in places where there's a signalled light right there.)
I haven't read the original FT article, but color me skeptical. (1) What
determines the price at which these algorithms arrive? Is it simply a question
of reinforcing whatever the status quo is? (2) The algorithms, by automating
mimetic pricing behavior, make it more difficult for participants and potential
entrants to infer competitors' costs from their prices. That could lead to a
lot of repricing as a form of discovery. Drawing inferences from this requires
some formal modeling, I think.
It is true, however, that in repeated
collective action problems, the shorter the timespan associated with each stage
game the lower the imputed discount factor and therefore the greater likelihood
of a cooperative solution.
Firms are not always price-makers; some firms in a system may be quite passive.
Most U.S. gas stations are convenience store operations and I'm guessing that
their gas is priced and sold as a pass-thru. The convenience store wants the
price to be "competitive" because that's what brings in people to buy sugar and
caffeine, but they do not want to be drawn into subsidizing the gas price, so
most (but not all) will tie their own hands.
Traditional arguments about concentration and monopoly/oligopoly were always
a lot of handwaving rubbish and untested storytelling. Defining a "market"
where none existed, as Harrison White did, was never a path of enlightenment,
as it overlooked the needs and necessities of strategically organizing and
managing a technically and socially complex and dynamic production and
distribution process.
Firms are not always price-makers; some firms in a system may be quite passive.
Most U.S. gas stations are convenience store operations and I'm guessing that
their gas is priced and sold as a pass-thru. The convenience store wants the
price to be "competitive" because that's what brings in people to buy sugar and
caffeine, but they do not want to be drawn into subsidizing the gas price, so
most (but not all) will tie their own hands.
Traditional arguments about concentration and monopoly/oligopoly were always
a lot of handwaving rubbish and untested storytelling. Defining a "market"
where none existed, as Harrison White did, was never a path of enlightenment,
as it overlooked the needs and necessities of strategically organizing and
managing a technically and socially complex and dynamic production and
distribution process.
The structure of American banking and finance during its long Frank Capra
period might be a good example: A structure of many diverse and mostly small
institutions, drawing on minor sources of economic rent for structural
stability, such as prohibitions on interstate banking or the slightly higher
interest rates savings and loans could pay on deposits, as well as general
prohibitions on common strategic direction of commercial banks, investment
banks, insurance companies, credit unions and stock brokers. Not to mention
usury laws and state audits of commercial bank lending and public institutions
like Fannie Mae (when it was dedicated to a public purpose).
A very complex structure and not a laissez faire blob - it represents a
different way of thinking about economic structure. The idea of a
self-regulating market economy that can be relied on to deliver the equilibrium
best of all possible worlds is basically a seductive lie, that undergirds a lot
of patently ineffective or futile ideas about economic policy toward economic
structure.
Jeff R@5: On a multilane road with a lot of commuters, the station on this side
of the road gets all the business in the morning and the station on that side
gets all the business in the evening. I have seen a pair of gas stations that
basically swapped prices at two in the afternoon and then again at some ungodly
hour of the morning, because people are willing to pay an extra nickel per
gallon to avoid turning across traffic twice.
The very low cost of information cuts all ways. It's easy to determine buying
behavior and if an algorithm decides that if a certain population don't
aggressively pursue price or leave a particular ecosystem to buy, special
pricing could be applied. I've heard rumors about this concerning Amazon.
I can't read the paywalled FT article, but I've been noticing the quoted
behavior in airline ticket prices for a long time. You used to regularly see
news stories about some airline or other making a move to raise prices on one
route or another, speculating on whether other airlines would follow along, and
whether the price move would spread to other routes. No back-room plotting was
implied or needed.
I developed a first cut of a general hypothesis about the existence
conditions for this kind of "virtual cartel" behavior, based on the ability of
"competing" firms to evaluate price changes and reset their own prices more
rapidly than customers could discover those changes and respond to them with
actual purchasing behavior.
This doesn't seem to happen as much nowdays, though. I attribute the change
to improvements in customer ability to find and react to pricing changes using
search tools like you get with Expedia and Carlson Wagonlit Travel, and to the
emergence of discount airlines like JetBlue who always "defect", and don't play
the cartel game, making it impossible to obtain a coordinated price rise. The
emergence of monopolistic single-airline hubs probably has an effect, too. When
your choices of routes between Wichita and San Francisco involve stops in
Denver(United), Dallas(American), and Atlanta(Delta), there's no real need for
those airlines to worry about more sophisticated anti-competitive measures.
I never found time to simulate the situation or develop any math to
determine the exact parameters for communication bandwidth, search efficiency,
maximum number of participating firms, etc. that would lead to sustained
above-minimum prices.
The forensic resources that would be needed to obtain convincing evidence of
"echoing" price changes would be akin to those needed to detect front-running
and other stock market shenanigans – regulators would need to track every price
on every item from every vendor, and run big data analytics on those records.
Certainly feasible, but not inexpensive.
"The argument here, if it is right, is twofold. One – that even without direct
collusion, firms' best strategy may be to act as if they are colluding by
maintaining higher prices. "
Slightly off topic, but I wonder if this sort of
thing has also impacted the media over the last 20 years with the rise of the
internet.
Editors and journalists can all look at the other newspapers and journalists
work, and see what news they are printing, and what news they are not printing.
The logic of media ownership rules was meant to prevent this - but if all
the media are in effect colluding over what news and opinions to print, and
what not to print, then the media ownership rules become more and more
redundant.
It seems to me that this has nothing to do with algorithms, and everything to
do with the determination of the profit share.
Given a country with a total
production of 100, workers will eat a certain percentage of the products, let's
say 70%, and "capitalists" will eat the remaining 30% (abstracting from other
social categories).
But what determines that capitalists get 30% and not 40% or 20%?
Orthodox theory says that in a competitive market prices will fall towards
their cost of production, but in these costs of production is included the
"opportunity cost" of the use of capital, and this opportunity cost is just the
expected "normal" profit from capital, so that all the orthodox theory says is
that all capitals will converge towards the same rate of profit, but it doesn't
say what this rate of profit (or the corresonding profit share) is.
In other words we know that competition will push all capitalists to make
20%, or all capitalists to make 40%, or all capitalists to make 30% (adjusted
for the different levels of capital intensity), but we don't know exactly what
level the profits will converge to, nor why (this is the essence of Sraffa's
"neoricardian economics").
This determination of the wage share (or profit share) happens at 3
different points:
1) at the moment of employment, the worker will demand a certain wage from the
capitalist, depending on his/her bargaining power; people who speak of falling
union power or of a weak job market speak of this point.
2) but on the other hand we can see the profit share as the markup businesses
do on their live production costs; people who stress competitons and/or rising
monopolies stress this different point.
It is worth noting that points 1 and 2 refer to totally different causation
mechanisms, but in pratice the effects cannot be distinguished, so that we
can't actually distinguish between the effects of "oligopoly" and the effects
of "bad job market".
3) there are also other factors that redistribute income, like taxations or
various forms of rents, and in my opinion these things can have a retroactive
effect on distribution (e.g. if the marginal income tax falls rich people have
more money that they invest in housing, the cost of houses goes up, and this
increases rents, thus influencing before-tax income).
Since the supposed effects of competition, oligopoly etc. are in my view
undistinguishable from other effects that influence the wage share, I'm very
sceptical about about explanation of the falling wage share (or increased
profit share) based on a lack of competitivity (why would our economy be less
competitive than the economy of the '60s)?
I'd agree that collusion via algorithm is possible, but all evidence points to
the contrary. Retail margins are falling for virtually all major retailers in
the US and UK (can't say broader than that, but would be surprised).
At least so far, the ability to price discover has been a more valuable tool
for consumers in arbitraging to find a deal than it has been for sellers to
prevent price erosion.
Equally, fuel selling is a massively competitive market, its all but
impossible to get all actors to follow the script. For many outlets, fuel
prices at convenience stores are routinely set as a derivative of cost, not as
a function of market. Large scale franchises often control the prices centrally
– not locally – so are set without knowledge of the 'station across the street'
and designed to insure that no-one can accuse of fuel being called a loss
leader. Beyond that, margins are razor thin on fuel. Most of the money is made
in the store, not at the pump.
It's been a long time since I had access to a university library. And in most
of that I didn't have time to skim the shelves and randomly find things like
G.C. Harcourt Some Cambridge Controversies in the Theory of Capital (or Human
Action or Wilkinson's Poverty of Progress.) But the last time I looked there
wasn't really a generally accepted theory of the level of profit. Whatever
agreement there was seemed to be that profit was both exogenously determined by
unspecified forces and endogenously determined by consumer preference. That
would be nonsense were it not so convenient. Presumably then my impression is
my mistake. What is more or less the current orthodox thinking on the general
rate of profit and dynamics in changes thereof?
FORD CITY, Pa. - He is old and gray now, he struggles
sometimes to hear, but if he closes his eyes the burly man
can easily conjure that young boy again, a lad at work in a
bustling factory that for a century formed the strong,
straight economic backbone of this proud industrial borough.
"We were poor, but we didn't realize it because all our
neighbors were, too,'' Paul Hromadik said as he gazed across
a rainy town common here at what used to be the Pittsburgh
Plate Glass works.
In 1953, Hromadik was among thousands who flooded through
a pedestrian tunnel at the corner of Third Avenue and Ninth
Street and into the glassworks. He made rear windows for cars
and trucks before he left for a stint in the Army and then a
life as a power company supervisor, father, and grandfather.
"This town is dying now,'' the 81-year-old Hromadik said
softly. "All the young people are moving out.''
That Pittsburgh Plate Glass plant is long gone, an early
harbinger of an economic collapse that has decimated the
region's manufacturing base and fueled a resentment,
particularly acute among white working-class voters, that has
become an emblem of Donald Trump's America.
And that's why I am here along the banks of the Allegheny
River, talking to Hromadik and others like him. I have
cowered under the covers long enough. Denial does no one any
good. Donald Trump is going to put his left hand on the Bible
in a couple weeks and repeat the oath of office administered
by Chief Justice John Roberts.
I do not live in Donald Trump's America, but I aim to
learn from those who do. I've rented a sturdy car. I've
enlisted a wingman with serious driving chops. And I've
pointed myself west to the land Trump found so fertile and
tilled with such skill and in a rough-shod style all his own.
West beyond Hartford. West over the Hudson River. West
through snow-dusted farmlands and tree-studded mountains and
along the vast interstate highway system named for another
Republican and political newcomer, Dwight Eisenhower.
Trump lost the popular vote, but he won the land, 3
million square miles and 80 percent of the nation's counties.
This is one of them. Forty miles northeast of Pittsburgh,
Ford City's population of 3,000 is about half the number who
lived here a century ago, when John B. Ford built what was
said to be one of the planet's biggest plate-glass factories.
There is a statue of Ford in the central park where he
stands forever staring at the factory that once was a roaring
economic engine but is now a hulking and empty reminder that
this is a city whose glory days are in the rear-view mirror.
It's not difficult to understand the appeal here of Trump,
who shakes his fist at foreign economic interlopers and
pledges at every turn to make America great again.
Make Ford City great again? That's what has Sheri Humenik
animated these days.
I encountered her at the local library last week, where
she was replenishing the racks of magazines and periodicals
and evangelizing about the beauty and the allure of
small-town life.
"I believe in this community,'' said Humenik, a
40-something full-time mom and part-time pharmacist. "This
town is the best-kept secret. Where Pittsburgh Plate Glass
was would be the perfect place for some new high-tech
business. It would bring our town back to life.''
All of Armstrong County could certainly use a lift.
Downsizing bulletins from local employers are routine. The
economic decline has been paralleled by the fading fortunes
of the local Democratic Party, whose members outnumbered
Republicans until 12 years ago. Republicans now dominate,
20,600 to 15,880. "For every Armstrong County Republican that
became a Democrat since January, three Democrats have gone in
the opposite direction,'' the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
reported last spring.
That trend does not surprise people like Humenik, who grew
up here and intends to stay put. Trump's message, she said,
was a warm and welcome salve.
"I felt like that he wants to revitalize places just like
this,'' she told me. "He wants to invest in people. He brings
a fire that has reignited hope in people. We need investments
in the small towns, not just the big cities. The small towns
are suffering. We need to recognize the hidden gems and bring
them back. I'm upbeat. I'm encouraged. I'm looking forward.''
I nearly looked over my shoulder to see if someone from
the Trump communications office was getting all of this on
film. It was so perfectly rendered. And it all felt so
genuine, which is going to take some getting used to. Because
back where I live, there you don't run into many who would
say out loud what she just did, even if they think it. And
there are plenty of disbelievers who can't bear the thought
of a President Trump.
And, truth be told, you don't have to look very far to
find them here either. The Trump-is-a-snake-oil-salesman
caucus is alive and well on the steps of the county
courthouse, where attorney Chuck Pascal has sneaked outside
for a late-morning smoke as a soft rain falls over
Kittanning, the Armstrong County seat.
"These are dangerous times,'' said Pascal, a former
Leechburg mayor and a member of the Democratic State
Committee. "I don't think Trump knows anything and I don't
think he knows that he doesn't know anything.''
But Pascal understands the allure of Trump. Comfortable
blue-collar jobs are gone. There's been an exodus of the
professional class. People wanted change. They were willing
to roll the dice on Trump.
Pascal, a Bernie Sanders supporter and delegate, knows it
is now wasted breath to dissect and analyze what went so
wrong. Hillary Clinton "was such a horrible candidate, and
now we're all going to suffer for it,'' he said. "I've never
been scared before, but this is so scary to me.''
It's scary to me, too. But that's not why I'm here. I want
reassurance that everything is going to work out fine. I want
to understand why so many of my fellow Americans have
embraced a man whose every Cabinet appointment seems like a
middle finger fiercely extended to the non-adherents he calls
enemies.
It's time to jump back into the SUV. It's a big red
country out there.
"What do you think? Ohio? Michigan?" I ask my monosyllabic
wingman.
This monopsony thing is just a tip
of the iceberg.
Neoliberalism contains two mutually exclusive ideas.
-- Economic liberalism – the sanctity of enrichment of the few and impoverishment of the "working
class" and lower middle class.
-- Techno fundamentalism which requires highly educated workers. Educated workers would never
accept this "bargain."
In other words, at its core neoliberalism is about redistribution of wealth up to feudal proportions
or even worse ("socialism for the rich, feudalism for the poor"). And that's what makes it unsustainable.
Of course, this is a simplification, but you get the idea.
Sending Hillary packing might well be just a start of the USA "awakening" after, say, 32 years
(1976-2008 -- Carter was probably the first "neoliberal" president, not Reagan ) of complete, unchallenged
dominance of neoliberalism within the USA
And the Triumphal March of neoliberalism over the world with the collapse of the USSR as the main
event now ended.
When the USSR "nomenklatura" renounced Communist ideology (or was bought to renounce it) and switched
the sides accepting neoliberalism as the new article of faith (as in "Paris is well worth a Mass"),
it was probably the largest religious conversion in history :-)
But then things went wrong, and by 2008 we have the first crisis of neoliberalism as a social
model.
With Trump, we probably have a start of the second one.
Both happened so soon partially due to triumphalism of the US neoliberal elite, which lost its
mind (it can be argued that the existence of the USSR was a huge positive to the USA as it kept the
US elite in check and prevented it from sliding into insanity of "Greed is good" mentality with Bill
and Hillary Clintons as a classic example).
Neoliberal ideology lost its dominance after 2008, and that means that neoliberalism as an ideology
entered zombie stage, much like Communist ideology in 1945. People stared looking for an
alternative.
Later, under Obama, neoliberals spoiled relations with Russia as they can't accept it after the
collapse of the USSR in any other role than a vassal state, and, as a result, got a fledgling alliance
of Russia and China. Which might requires a lot of resources to contain. This is superficially similar
to the British Empire nightmare -- the alliance of Germany and Russia in Europe.
And the current overstretching of US neoliberal empire might also slightly speed up the demise
of the current flavor of neoliberalism in the USA, as overstretching of the empire always means further
impoverishment of the population of the metropolis.
Whether the alternative is the restoration of some amended form of the New Deal capitalism or
something new "peak oil inspired" social system remains to be seen. But I think in its present form
the US neoliberalism is past its peak and is in decline. How long it will remain in this stage is
anybody guess. The USSR lasted 45 years after its victory in the WWII. 45 years since the USA victory
in the Cold War would be 2036.
In this sense Trump is the first Robin, who does not make the spring, but still...
It remains to be seen, if Trump attempt to replace "classic neoliberalism" with "bastard neoliberalism"
(neoliberalism in a single country, or neoliberalism minus globalization and wars for expansion of
neoliberal empire) will be crushed by the "deep state" or not.
"... Trump has ideas that he is not disclosing. He is new and the bureaucracy will run him instead of the other way around. Much will be half implemented because neither Trump nor GOP policies are popular. ..."
"... MinWage increases is one of the most popular policies but one the GOP is least likely to pass ..."
"... Domestic policy? Trump might act pseudo-magnanimous and come out for single payer, or something like that. The politically smartest next move would be to buy-off some progressive Berniecrats, while sticking it to Wall Street (in a phony, visual way). ..."
"... But more likely it will be Reaganoid business as usual. Why? Because: ..."
"... The system is complicated, and every thread you pull on, unravels something else. That's systems theory, folks! ..."
"... The power of the Presidency is limited, and overrated by partisans on both sides. ..."
"... A President's information is restricted to what comes in through his advisors, and this bunch are looking like, kwite a kwazy krew. ..."
"... Trump's low cognition and narcissism will result in short-sighted moves and more foreign policy quagmires for the US: "Look at the black eye the US gave itself, with the Bush-Cheney War! -- Let's make America stupid again!" ..."
"... On trade? Trump is setting up the conditions where the richest people can plunder what's remains of the U.S., before getting out of the country: ..."
"... The new global slogan will be, "Trade with China -- We're the Crooks You Can TRUST!" ..."
"... Meanwhile Trump will give big tax cuts to the richest Americans, because his knuckleheaded voters believe all the "makers vs. takers" baloney; they haven't been schtupped up the keister enough... ..."
"... Then the rich will slowly start taking that money out of the U.S. to some other country that gets a higher global ROI under the new Chinese trade rules, because U.S. exporters under protectionism won't be nearly as profitable. ..."
"... The bureaucracy is too massive for any one person to control. Change requires action from the top or its business as usual. Trump does not have enough trusted aids and insiders to manage the government ..."
"... Right now it's hard to know if Trump's administration really wants to deliver change. Its cabinet-level staffing is hard to read. It is full of establishment types who could deliver change if that is really their mission. They are not beholden to anyone for their positions and they are not in need of lucrative employment after cabinet service that might otherwise make them tend to curry favor with interests they affect in office. ..."
"... Tillerson became CEO of Exxon and has been successful there, nontrivial achievements both. He is not a professional foreign service officer, neither was HRC. For many oil-producing countries, their most important foreign patron is Exxon. Tillerson is very familiar with the inside game in the Middle East where all kinds of shit has been hitting the fan for the past 25 years without the US having much success there. HRC and Kerry have been particularly ineffective and had far less accomplishments in life before assuming SoS office than Tillerson. ..."
"... Mnuchin got rich in Hollywood because he knew what people wanted from Hollywood. he was also chief of the NY bond desk for GS and was CIO for GS for five years. That is CIO of the most technologically sophisticated investment bank in the world. ..."
"... Mnuchin knows the technology and how it can be used to execute or hide chicanery better than anyone else in the industry. If he aims to reform the TBTF banks, he is better equipped than anyone who has been Treasury secretary over the 25 years during which computer technology assumed a key role in skulduggery in the industry. ..."
"... Marine nicknames are often ironic. "Mad Dog" Mattis probably reflects recognition of his intellect and coolness by his Marine colleagues. ..."
"... Mattis has been well known to be a smart, tough, effective achiever. If pentagon reform is really the goal, he would be hard to beat. ..."
"... These men have all been very successful at running large organizations. Let's see what direction they try to take the government and how they do at it. Should be interesting. ..."
"... History without context is meaningless. ..."
"... Wars play too great a role in history as taught. Neither of the Bushes, with their limited thinking, like the generals above, should have ever been allowed near hammers ..."
"... Colonialism took a bit too long to die, but Archduke Ferdinand was indeed about the dying throws of monarchies. ..."
We have very little indication of what policies Donald
Trump will try to follow or even what kind of president he will be. The U.S. press corps did an
extraordinarily execrable job in covering the rise of Trump--even worse than it usually does.
Even the most sophisticated of audiences--those interested in asset prices and how they are affected
by government policies--have very little insight into Trump's views or those of his key associates.
Will Donald Trump turn out to be the equivalent of Ronald Reagan -- someone who comes into office
from the world of celebrity with a great many unfixed policy intuitions, but no consistent plan?
Will he turn out to be the equivalent of Silvio Berlusconi, who regards the presidency as an opportunity
to wreak his kleptocratic will on the country?
Or will he turn out to be someone worse than Berlusconi?
I would say that Trump could be any of four figures...
Trump has ideas that he is not disclosing. He is new and the bureaucracy will run him instead
of the other way around. Much will be half implemented because neither Trump nor GOP policies
are popular.
MinWage increases is one of the most popular policies but one the GOP is least likely to
pass
Congress has power but they must shift from opposition mode to governing mode. I expect much
overreach and 'creative' destruction
Domestic policy? Trump might act pseudo-magnanimous and come out for single payer, or something
like that. The politically smartest next move would be to buy-off some progressive Berniecrats,
while sticking it to Wall Street (in a phony, visual way).
But more likely it will be Reaganoid business as usual. Why? Because:
1. The system is complicated, and every thread you pull on, unravels something else. That's
systems theory, folks!
2. The power of the Presidency is limited, and overrated by partisans on both sides.
3. A President's information is restricted to what comes in through his advisors, and this
bunch are looking like, kwite a kwazy krew.
4. There is a mid-term election less than 2 years from now.
Foreign policy? Putin wanted Trump to win, but NOT to make the U.S. stronger. He wants a weaker
US. Why? Because the Russians hate the US for screwing them economically after the Iron Curtain
fell, with trying to impose a bunch of free-market fundamentalist ignorance...
Were that not bad enough, the US slapped on oil sanctions recently, after Putin tried shoring-up
his borders against NATO expansion and against Islamic terrorists.
... ... ...
Whether you yourself think it's good or bad to oppose Russia -- and whatever you think of Putin's
tactics in response -- is not the point here. Fact is, Putin hates the US. Therefore, Putin is
not going to help anyone whom he thinks will make the US stronger or more respected in the world.
Russian psych profiling may suggest that Trump's low cognition and narcissism will result in short-sighted
moves and more foreign policy quagmires for the US: "Look at the black eye the US gave itself,
with the Bush-Cheney War! -- Let's make America stupid again!"
On trade? Trump is setting up the conditions where the richest people can plunder what's remains
of the U.S., before getting out of the country: Trump wants to tear up the big trade deals and
make every country go into bilateral negotiations with his trade team... BUT those countries are
all going to say, "Forget it! We just spent 6 years negotiating, and we know we can't trust the
US anymore!"...
Then, they are going to turn around and join China's new global trade organization, which was
suddenly announced the DAY AFTER Trump's election (funny, that, after years of planning, building
forward military bases in the Pacific, etc.) The new global slogan will be, "Trade with China
-- We're the Crooks You Can TRUST!"
Meanwhile Trump will give big tax cuts to the richest Americans, because his knuckleheaded
voters believe all the "makers vs. takers" baloney; they haven't been schtupped up the keister
enough... Then the rich will slowly start taking that money out of the U.S. to some other country that
gets a higher global ROI under the new Chinese trade rules, because U.S. exporters under protectionism
won't be nearly as profitable.
"...And golly, honey, there's plenty of pretty places over there to build new mansions, for
both you, AND the mistress..." Meanwhile, back in the U.S., voters will continue walking around
with their thumbs up their butts, & trying to prevent other Americans from getting healthcare,
trying to prevent them from voting, etc... To get cash, the U.S. can join into a big flea market
with the Brexiters, and we can all swap old Beatles vinyl...
The bureaucracy will run things? This is not going to happen, governance will stall or cease.
Let me see, a party that says our form of govt is the problem. A party who has obstructed matters
to cause dysfunction in govt on purpose, and who is entertaining nominees to head these agencies
who do not care that they exist, bills introduced already to allow pay even to the individual
to be cut , and to smooth firing processes, with an incoming group who surfaces transition-team
surveys for the purposes of chilling efforts with the agencies even before they take control,
on climate change for instance, well, the bureaucracy is demoralized, and threatened. The dysfunction
of the American 'experiment' in self government will be harmed, perhaps accomplished finally.
And when they get their legs about them with new judiciary appointments they then should thread
cases via these courts so holdings they get won't be appealed, giving them full control, with
still the purpose being dysfunction for what has been the generally applicable law before. Ok
with them, it would seem.
jonny bakho -> JF... , -1
The bureaucracy is too massive for any one person to control. Change requires action from
the top or its business as usual. Trump does not have enough trusted aids and insiders to manage
the government
"Reagan did not campaign for and enter the presidency thinking that he was going to push the value
of the dollar up by 70%..."
-- Brad DeLong
[ The real trade-weighted price of the dollar increased by about 45% between 1980 and March
1985 and then declined and finished the Reagan presidency about 5% below the level of 1980. ]
[I set the Way-back machine to Links for 12-31-16 and copied what mrrunangun said to me then.
From my experience mrrunangun is a more reliable source than the MSM, but then so is my wife and
over half of the random strangers that I meet in Walmart.]
Right now it's hard to know if Trump's administration really wants to deliver change. Its
cabinet-level staffing is hard to read. It is full of establishment types who could deliver change
if that is really their mission. They are not beholden to anyone for their positions and they
are not in need of lucrative employment after cabinet service that might otherwise make them tend
to curry favor with interests they affect in office.
Tillerson became CEO of Exxon and has been successful there, nontrivial achievements both.
He is not a professional foreign service officer, neither was HRC. For many oil-producing countries,
their most important foreign patron is Exxon. Tillerson is very familiar with the inside game
in the Middle East where all kinds of shit has been hitting the fan for the past 25 years without
the US having much success there. HRC and Kerry have been particularly ineffective and had far
less accomplishments in life before assuming SoS office than Tillerson.
Mnuchin got rich in Hollywood because he knew what people wanted from Hollywood. he was
also chief of the NY bond desk for GS and was CIO for GS for five years. That is CIO of the most
technologically sophisticated investment bank in the world.
Many of the big errors in banking
over the past 20 years have been due to inadequate supervision of trading units. Traders learn
to hide losses using the computer systems of the banks and clearing houses. The Barclay's Singapore
disaster, the London whale, the UBS fiasco, the DB bond desk fiasco all got out of hand because
traders' losing positions went undetected by the traders' supervisors who lacked the technical
sophistication necessary to provide adequate supervision. Mnuchin knows the technology and
how it can be used to execute or hide chicanery better than anyone else in the industry. If he
aims to reform the TBTF banks, he is better equipped than anyone who has been Treasury secretary
over the 25 years during which computer technology assumed a key role in skulduggery in the industry.
Marine nicknames are often ironic. "Mad Dog" Mattis probably reflects recognition of his
intellect and coolness by his Marine colleagues. In the movie Full Metal Jacket, a dark-skinned
black man was named "snowball" and, after getting slapped around for smiling at the DI's jokes,
the main character was named "Joker". Victor Krulak, a Marine general during the VietNam war,
got the name Brute because of his diminutive size. He became probably the only five foot four-inch
Marine general of the twentieth century. Mattis has been well known to be a smart, tough,
effective achiever. If pentagon reform is really the goal, he would be hard to beat.
These men have all been very successful at running large organizations. Let's see what
direction they try to take the government and how they do at it. Should be interesting.
Suri never really makes his case against belligerent deterrence because his historical references
are inconsistent with his thesis. As much as I agree with TR's "Walk soft and carry a big stick"
even that is a superficial take on Teddy Roosevelt's approach to diplomatic engagement, which
was a superior way to conduct foreign policy even compared to Taft's dollar diplomacy.
Taft's way was more readily assessable to the mediocre men that would normally lead our country
though, which is why Kissinger as Secretary of State held to it dearly. Buying peace is much cheaper
than waging war.
Understood. Woodrow Wilson was a pacifist and the US during his administration was isolationist.
That hardly sounds like a case of belligerent deterrence going wrong, but more like the opposite.
Suri's point was that circumstances can dictate significant reversals from original intentions
though. WW-II did not seem like our choice and certainly was reluctant more like WW-I rather than
a case of belligerent deterrence going wrong.
The US entered the Korean War because its presidents, first Truman and then Eisenhower were
more afraid of Joe McCarthy than China, also not a case of belligerent deterrence, just domino
theory.
Kennedy and Johnson just feared the anti-communist Republican hawks that remained after McCarthy
died more than they feared China, just more domino theory there too.
When we finally got a POTUS that did the full court press on belligerent deterrence, Reagan,
then peace broke out.
By this time Suri's case is getting real weak. The first Bush war, the daddy Bush war, was
just a reaction function and limited at that. The next two Bush wars, the baby Bush wars, were
finally belligerent deterrence on steroids, but also a reaction function or an over-reaction function
to 9/11.
Suri stands empty handed on his history, but that does not mean that he is wrong on his prognostications,
just unconvincing in his larger historical based argument aside from the notion of unintended
consequences. That alone may however be Donald Trumps undoing, but just as easily so from domestic
policy as foreign policy. Only time will tell. I prefer not to guess this one out too far myself,
unintended consequences being what they are and all.
Quite a lot; where to start? The world as it is vs. our wishful perceptions? I think remembering
that most problems requiring governmental action are really quite complicated and often have more
than one possible answer is essential. It's the simple arsed responses, so loved by the many,
that get us into some of the worst messes. The urge to tear it down and start anew, another source
of grief, again linked to the simple arsed, our most current response.
See Reagan and Ike as being dependent to a fault on their advisers (in the case of Reagan,
we really lucked out with Baker, Schultz, Deaver); Bush II as being dumb enough to think he was
smart when, in fact, he was too dumb for the job; and Drumpf, I suspect/fear, being of the same
ilk as Bush II.
For WWI context, I see: the swell of the industrial age, the vying for raw materials and markets,
all in a period when one saw the dying throes of colonialism and monarchies whilst no one seem
to grasp the reality of what was going on (bout where we find ourselves). Wars play too great a role in history as taught. Neither of the Bushes, with their limited
thinking, like the generals above, should have ever been allowed near hammers
Colonialism took a bit too long to die, but Archduke Ferdinand was indeed about the dying
throws of monarchies.
Relative to Suri's argument there was nothing about US foreign policy activism that got
us into WWI unless you want to consider the negative. Had the US been more involved in European
diplomacy in a cogent and persuasive manner then it may have averted the Prussian brinksmanship
that ignite WW-I. Theodore Roosevelt may have been capable of that, but not Taft nor Wilson.
"... reduced competition can also give employers power to dictate wages-so- called "monopsony" power in the labor market. ..."
"... While monopoly in product markets and monopsony in labor markets can be related and share some common causes, the latter has some distinct causes and policy implications. ..."
"... This issue brief explains how monopsony, or wage-setting power, in the labor market can reduce wages, employment, and overall welfare ..."
A growing literature has documented several
indicators of declining] competition in the United
States, and economists have begun to explore the
links between these trends and rising income
inequality (Furman and Orzag 2015). While recent
discussions have highlighted rising concentration
among producers and monopoly pricing in sellers
markets (The Economist 2016), reduced competition
can also give employers power to dictate wages-so-
called "monopsony" power in the labor market.
While monopoly in product markets and monopsony
in labor markets can be related and share some
common causes, the latter has some distinct causes
and policy implications.
This issue brief explains how monopsony, or wage-setting power, in the labor market can reduce wages,
employment, and overall welfare...
"... Trump has ideas that he is not disclosing. He is new and the bureaucracy will run him instead of the other way around. Much will be half implemented because neither Trump nor GOP policies are popular. ..."
"... MinWage increases is one of the most popular policies but one the GOP is least likely to pass ..."
"... Domestic policy? Trump might act pseudo-magnanimous and come out for single payer, or something like that. The politically smartest next move would be to buy-off some progressive Berniecrats, while sticking it to Wall Street (in a phony, visual way). ..."
"... But more likely it will be Reaganoid business as usual. Why? Because: ..."
"... The system is complicated, and every thread you pull on, unravels something else. That's systems theory, folks! ..."
"... The power of the Presidency is limited, and overrated by partisans on both sides. ..."
"... A President's information is restricted to what comes in through his advisors, and this bunch are looking like, kwite a kwazy krew. ..."
"... Trump's low cognition and narcissism will result in short-sighted moves and more foreign policy quagmires for the US: "Look at the black eye the US gave itself, with the Bush-Cheney War! -- Let's make America stupid again!" ..."
"... On trade? Trump is setting up the conditions where the richest people can plunder what's remains of the U.S., before getting out of the country: ..."
"... The new global slogan will be, "Trade with China -- We're the Crooks You Can TRUST!" ..."
"... Meanwhile Trump will give big tax cuts to the richest Americans, because his knuckleheaded voters believe all the "makers vs. takers" baloney; they haven't been schtupped up the keister enough... ..."
"... Then the rich will slowly start taking that money out of the U.S. to some other country that gets a higher global ROI under the new Chinese trade rules, because U.S. exporters under protectionism won't be nearly as profitable. ..."
"... The bureaucracy is too massive for any one person to control. Change requires action from the top or its business as usual. Trump does not have enough trusted aids and insiders to manage the government ..."
"... Right now it's hard to know if Trump's administration really wants to deliver change. Its cabinet-level staffing is hard to read. It is full of establishment types who could deliver change if that is really their mission. They are not beholden to anyone for their positions and they are not in need of lucrative employment after cabinet service that might otherwise make them tend to curry favor with interests they affect in office. ..."
"... Tillerson became CEO of Exxon and has been successful there, nontrivial achievements both. He is not a professional foreign service officer, neither was HRC. For many oil-producing countries, their most important foreign patron is Exxon. Tillerson is very familiar with the inside game in the Middle East where all kinds of shit has been hitting the fan for the past 25 years without the US having much success there. HRC and Kerry have been particularly ineffective and had far less accomplishments in life before assuming SoS office than Tillerson. ..."
"... Mnuchin got rich in Hollywood because he knew what people wanted from Hollywood. he was also chief of the NY bond desk for GS and was CIO for GS for five years. That is CIO of the most technologically sophisticated investment bank in the world. ..."
"... Mnuchin knows the technology and how it can be used to execute or hide chicanery better than anyone else in the industry. If he aims to reform the TBTF banks, he is better equipped than anyone who has been Treasury secretary over the 25 years during which computer technology assumed a key role in skulduggery in the industry. ..."
"... Marine nicknames are often ironic. "Mad Dog" Mattis probably reflects recognition of his intellect and coolness by his Marine colleagues. ..."
"... Mattis has been well known to be a smart, tough, effective achiever. If pentagon reform is really the goal, he would be hard to beat. ..."
"... These men have all been very successful at running large organizations. Let's see what direction they try to take the government and how they do at it. Should be interesting. ..."
"... History without context is meaningless. ..."
"... Wars play too great a role in history as taught. Neither of the Bushes, with their limited thinking, like the generals above, should have ever been allowed near hammers ..."
"... Colonialism took a bit too long to die, but Archduke Ferdinand was indeed about the dying throws of monarchies. ..."
We have very little indication of what policies Donald
Trump will try to follow or even what kind of president he will be. The U.S. press corps did an
extraordinarily execrable job in covering the rise of Trump--even worse than it usually does.
Even the most sophisticated of audiences--those interested in asset prices and how they are affected
by government policies--have very little insight into Trump's views or those of his key associates.
Will Donald Trump turn out to be the equivalent of Ronald Reagan -- someone who comes into office
from the world of celebrity with a great many unfixed policy intuitions, but no consistent plan?
Will he turn out to be the equivalent of Silvio Berlusconi, who regards the presidency as an opportunity
to wreak his kleptocratic will on the country?
Or will he turn out to be someone worse than Berlusconi?
I would say that Trump could be any of four figures...
Trump has ideas that he is not disclosing. He is new and the bureaucracy will run him instead
of the other way around. Much will be half implemented because neither Trump nor GOP policies
are popular.
MinWage increases is one of the most popular policies but one the GOP is least likely to
pass
Congress has power but they must shift from opposition mode to governing mode. I expect much
overreach and 'creative' destruction
Domestic policy? Trump might act pseudo-magnanimous and come out for single payer, or something
like that. The politically smartest next move would be to buy-off some progressive Berniecrats,
while sticking it to Wall Street (in a phony, visual way).
But more likely it will be Reaganoid business as usual. Why? Because:
1. The system is complicated, and every thread you pull on, unravels something else. That's
systems theory, folks!
2. The power of the Presidency is limited, and overrated by partisans on both sides.
3. A President's information is restricted to what comes in through his advisors, and this
bunch are looking like, kwite a kwazy krew.
4. There is a mid-term election less than 2 years from now.
Foreign policy? Putin wanted Trump to win, but NOT to make the U.S. stronger. He wants a weaker
US. Why? Because the Russians hate the US for screwing them economically after the Iron Curtain
fell, with trying to impose a bunch of free-market fundamentalist ignorance...
Were that not bad enough, the US slapped on oil sanctions recently, after Putin tried shoring-up
his borders against NATO expansion and against Islamic terrorists.
... ... ...
Whether you yourself think it's good or bad to oppose Russia -- and whatever you think of Putin's
tactics in response -- is not the point here. Fact is, Putin hates the US. Therefore, Putin is
not going to help anyone whom he thinks will make the US stronger or more respected in the world.
Russian psych profiling may suggest that Trump's low cognition and narcissism will result in short-sighted
moves and more foreign policy quagmires for the US: "Look at the black eye the US gave itself,
with the Bush-Cheney War! -- Let's make America stupid again!"
On trade? Trump is setting up the conditions where the richest people can plunder what's remains
of the U.S., before getting out of the country: Trump wants to tear up the big trade deals and
make every country go into bilateral negotiations with his trade team... BUT those countries are
all going to say, "Forget it! We just spent 6 years negotiating, and we know we can't trust the
US anymore!"...
Then, they are going to turn around and join China's new global trade organization, which was
suddenly announced the DAY AFTER Trump's election (funny, that, after years of planning, building
forward military bases in the Pacific, etc.) The new global slogan will be, "Trade with China
-- We're the Crooks You Can TRUST!"
Meanwhile Trump will give big tax cuts to the richest Americans, because his knuckleheaded
voters believe all the "makers vs. takers" baloney; they haven't been schtupped up the keister
enough... Then the rich will slowly start taking that money out of the U.S. to some other country that
gets a higher global ROI under the new Chinese trade rules, because U.S. exporters under protectionism
won't be nearly as profitable.
"...And golly, honey, there's plenty of pretty places over there to build new mansions, for
both you, AND the mistress..." Meanwhile, back in the U.S., voters will continue walking around
with their thumbs up their butts, & trying to prevent other Americans from getting healthcare,
trying to prevent them from voting, etc... To get cash, the U.S. can join into a big flea market
with the Brexiters, and we can all swap old Beatles vinyl...
The bureaucracy will run things? This is not going to happen, governance will stall or cease.
Let me see, a party that says our form of govt is the problem. A party who has obstructed matters
to cause dysfunction in govt on purpose, and who is entertaining nominees to head these agencies
who do not care that they exist, bills introduced already to allow pay even to the individual
to be cut , and to smooth firing processes, with an incoming group who surfaces transition-team
surveys for the purposes of chilling efforts with the agencies even before they take control,
on climate change for instance, well, the bureaucracy is demoralized, and threatened. The dysfunction
of the American 'experiment' in self government will be harmed, perhaps accomplished finally.
And when they get their legs about them with new judiciary appointments they then should thread
cases via these courts so holdings they get won't be appealed, giving them full control, with
still the purpose being dysfunction for what has been the generally applicable law before. Ok
with them, it would seem.
jonny bakho -> JF... , -1
The bureaucracy is too massive for any one person to control. Change requires action from
the top or its business as usual. Trump does not have enough trusted aids and insiders to manage
the government
"Reagan did not campaign for and enter the presidency thinking that he was going to push the value
of the dollar up by 70%..."
-- Brad DeLong
[ The real trade-weighted price of the dollar increased by about 45% between 1980 and March
1985 and then declined and finished the Reagan presidency about 5% below the level of 1980. ]
[I set the Way-back machine to Links for 12-31-16 and copied what mrrunangun said to me then.
From my experience mrrunangun is a more reliable source than the MSM, but then so is my wife and
over half of the random strangers that I meet in Walmart.]
Right now it's hard to know if Trump's administration really wants to deliver change. Its
cabinet-level staffing is hard to read. It is full of establishment types who could deliver change
if that is really their mission. They are not beholden to anyone for their positions and they
are not in need of lucrative employment after cabinet service that might otherwise make them tend
to curry favor with interests they affect in office.
Tillerson became CEO of Exxon and has been successful there, nontrivial achievements both.
He is not a professional foreign service officer, neither was HRC. For many oil-producing countries,
their most important foreign patron is Exxon. Tillerson is very familiar with the inside game
in the Middle East where all kinds of shit has been hitting the fan for the past 25 years without
the US having much success there. HRC and Kerry have been particularly ineffective and had far
less accomplishments in life before assuming SoS office than Tillerson.
Mnuchin got rich in Hollywood because he knew what people wanted from Hollywood. he was
also chief of the NY bond desk for GS and was CIO for GS for five years. That is CIO of the most
technologically sophisticated investment bank in the world.
Many of the big errors in banking
over the past 20 years have been due to inadequate supervision of trading units. Traders learn
to hide losses using the computer systems of the banks and clearing houses. The Barclay's Singapore
disaster, the London whale, the UBS fiasco, the DB bond desk fiasco all got out of hand because
traders' losing positions went undetected by the traders' supervisors who lacked the technical
sophistication necessary to provide adequate supervision. Mnuchin knows the technology and
how it can be used to execute or hide chicanery better than anyone else in the industry. If he
aims to reform the TBTF banks, he is better equipped than anyone who has been Treasury secretary
over the 25 years during which computer technology assumed a key role in skulduggery in the industry.
Marine nicknames are often ironic. "Mad Dog" Mattis probably reflects recognition of his
intellect and coolness by his Marine colleagues. In the movie Full Metal Jacket, a dark-skinned
black man was named "snowball" and, after getting slapped around for smiling at the DI's jokes,
the main character was named "Joker". Victor Krulak, a Marine general during the VietNam war,
got the name Brute because of his diminutive size. He became probably the only five foot four-inch
Marine general of the twentieth century. Mattis has been well known to be a smart, tough,
effective achiever. If pentagon reform is really the goal, he would be hard to beat.
These men have all been very successful at running large organizations. Let's see what
direction they try to take the government and how they do at it. Should be interesting.
Suri never really makes his case against belligerent deterrence because his historical references
are inconsistent with his thesis. As much as I agree with TR's "Walk soft and carry a big stick"
even that is a superficial take on Teddy Roosevelt's approach to diplomatic engagement, which
was a superior way to conduct foreign policy even compared to Taft's dollar diplomacy.
Taft's way was more readily assessable to the mediocre men that would normally lead our country
though, which is why Kissinger as Secretary of State held to it dearly. Buying peace is much cheaper
than waging war.
Understood. Woodrow Wilson was a pacifist and the US during his administration was isolationist.
That hardly sounds like a case of belligerent deterrence going wrong, but more like the opposite.
Suri's point was that circumstances can dictate significant reversals from original intentions
though. WW-II did not seem like our choice and certainly was reluctant more like WW-I rather than
a case of belligerent deterrence going wrong.
The US entered the Korean War because its presidents, first Truman and then Eisenhower were
more afraid of Joe McCarthy than China, also not a case of belligerent deterrence, just domino
theory.
Kennedy and Johnson just feared the anti-communist Republican hawks that remained after McCarthy
died more than they feared China, just more domino theory there too.
When we finally got a POTUS that did the full court press on belligerent deterrence, Reagan,
then peace broke out.
By this time Suri's case is getting real weak. The first Bush war, the daddy Bush war, was
just a reaction function and limited at that. The next two Bush wars, the baby Bush wars, were
finally belligerent deterrence on steroids, but also a reaction function or an over-reaction function
to 9/11.
Suri stands empty handed on his history, but that does not mean that he is wrong on his prognostications,
just unconvincing in his larger historical based argument aside from the notion of unintended
consequences. That alone may however be Donald Trumps undoing, but just as easily so from domestic
policy as foreign policy. Only time will tell. I prefer not to guess this one out too far myself,
unintended consequences being what they are and all.
Quite a lot; where to start? The world as it is vs. our wishful perceptions? I think remembering
that most problems requiring governmental action are really quite complicated and often have more
than one possible answer is essential. It's the simple arsed responses, so loved by the many,
that get us into some of the worst messes. The urge to tear it down and start anew, another source
of grief, again linked to the simple arsed, our most current response.
See Reagan and Ike as being dependent to a fault on their advisers (in the case of Reagan,
we really lucked out with Baker, Schultz, Deaver); Bush II as being dumb enough to think he was
smart when, in fact, he was too dumb for the job; and Drumpf, I suspect/fear, being of the same
ilk as Bush II.
For WWI context, I see: the swell of the industrial age, the vying for raw materials and markets,
all in a period when one saw the dying throes of colonialism and monarchies whilst no one seem
to grasp the reality of what was going on (bout where we find ourselves). Wars play too great a role in history as taught. Neither of the Bushes, with their limited
thinking, like the generals above, should have ever been allowed near hammers
Colonialism took a bit too long to die, but Archduke Ferdinand was indeed about the dying
throws of monarchies.
Relative to Suri's argument there was nothing about US foreign policy activism that got
us into WWI unless you want to consider the negative. Had the US been more involved in European
diplomacy in a cogent and persuasive manner then it may have averted the Prussian brinksmanship
that ignite WW-I. Theodore Roosevelt may have been capable of that, but not Taft nor Wilson.
It will be interesting to see how replacing Indian Point with
renewable plays out over the next few years.
Replacing the 2,000 megawatts would require ~650 very
large wind turbines at 3 MW each (at full nameplate rating)
or about 6 million solar panels (at nameplate rating again).
Actual yield / nameplate over 24/7/365 is called capacity
factor. Capacity factor for wind turbines is about 30%.
Output might be 10% during peak summer afternoon demand.
Capacity factor for solar PV panels is about 20%.
Clocks ticking.
Indian Point Nuclear Power Plant to Close by 2021
"The Indian Point nuclear plant will shut down by April
2021 under an agreement New York State reached this week with
Entergy, the utility company that owns the facility in
Westchester County, according to a person with direct
knowledge of the deal.
Under the terms of the agreement, one of the two nuclear
reactors at Indian Point will permanently cease operations by
April 2020, while the other must be closed by April 2021.
... the plant is an important supplier of inexpensive
power to the metropolitan area. It has the capacity to
generate more than 2,000 megawatts, or about one-fourth of
the power consumed in New York City and Westchester County.
The prospects for replacing that power are so far unclear,
but potential options include hydropower from Quebec and
power from wind farms already operating across New York,
according to the person."
The U.S. State Dept. has approved nearly $2 billion of
high-voltage transmission lines that will bring low-cost
Canadian renewable energy to the U.S. The department on Dec.
5 approved construction of the $1.2-billion New England Clean
Power Link, between eastern Canada and Vermont, and last
month green-lighted the $710-million Great Northern
Transmission Line, between Manitoba and Minnnesota.
Both received the so-called "presidential permit" that is
required for construction, operation and maintenance of
electric facilities that connect at international borders.
The Clean Power Link is a high-voltage, direct-current
transmission project that originates at Quebec's border and
ends at a high-voltage, direct-current converter station in
Ludlow, Vt., where it will connect to the New England power
grid. It will have the capacity to transmit 1,000 MW of power
to the U.S. Most of the project will be buried under Lake
Champlain.
The project has received eight environmental permits from
Vermont and a final environmental impact statement from the
U.S. Dept. of Energy late last year.
The 100 miles of cable under Lake Champlain is set to be
put in place during one summer construction season, says Don
Jessome, CEO of TDI New England. In water that is 150 ft or
deeper, the cable will be laid on the bottom of the lake. In
shallower water, it will be buried about 4 ft deep.
The remaining underground work will take two summer
seasons, Jessome said.
Construction is set to begin next year and be completed in
2018. Under its U.S. Army Corps of Engineers permit,
construction must be completed by the end of January 2021.
TDI New England has estimated that the project will reduce
power prices in New England by about $2 billion over 10
years, Jessome said. ...
TDI New England last year received a presidential permit
for a 333-mile project that will transport clean power from
the Canadian border to New York City. It will be completely
installed underground and underwater, primarily under Lake
Champlain and the Hudson River.
The $2.2-billion Champlain Hudson Power Express will
transmit 1,000 MW of renewable hydroelectric power from
Quebec and is touted as a way to help New York City reach its
goal of powering city government offices with 100% renewable
energy by 2050. The city government uses between 4 TWh and 5
TWh annually.
The Champlain Hudson project is fully permitted and
awaiting the New York Independent System Operator to complete
the final phase of the interconnection study, Jessome said.
The 1,000-MW direct-current line will include two buried,
5-in.-dia solid-state cables. Construction is expected to
begin in 2017, with commercial operations to begin in 2020.
...
Make room, African-Americans, Latinos, the LGBTQ community, feminists. And while we are at it,
Catholics, Jews, evangelicals, too. There is a new identity group in American life. It's the white
working class.
This is the group whose members were largely ignored by the mainstream media - at least until
Donald Trump's campaign drew attention to them - and left behind by the new media. It is the group
that was mobilized by Franklin Roosevelt but felt unmoved by Hillary Clinton.
"This crisis of white working people has been going on for some time, but we are just noticing
it,'' said Robert D. Putnam, the Harvard scholar from industrial Port Clinton, Ohio, who has written
widely on this group. "The Mon Valley around Pittsburgh didn't just suddenly run into economic problems.
The jobs left Rust Belt Ohio a long time ago. The white working-class people who voted for Trump
did so not because of the issues, or because they thought he'd bring back the auto parts factory
in my hometown. The people living in a place that has been hopeless for 20 years were just angry
at the world, and their vote was an upturned middle finger.''
With Trump's inauguration fast approaching, the surge is on: to define this newly prominent group,
to explain their viewpoints, to win their allegiance - everything, perhaps, but to address their
grievances. The big question of the dawning Trump era is this: Can Trump, or anyone else, turn an
upturned middle finger into a program for governing?
When ethnic minorities and many other identity groups entered the political mainstream, their
agenda was self-evident: protections against discrimination, the ability to serve in positions of
political power, the ability to pursue the American dream. The white working class, in contrast,
is unorganized, increasingly suspicious of government programs, and accustomed to seeing itself as
Middle America - not as a special interest.
Meanwhile, the policies that seem to be emerging out of the Trump transition lean more toward
traditional conservatism than populism. This is unfolding as an administration that would be favored
more by the acolytes of William F. Buckley than by the fans of Willie Nelson.
In theory, November's revolt of the white working class will usher in what could be a momentous
transition, the most startling political example of "Changing Places"' since the New Deal social
engineers replaced the free-market mandarins of engineer-president Herbert Hoover, in 1933. Big switches,
to be sure, are a familiar aspect of American politics - the substitution of George W. Bush's movement
conservatives for Bill Clinton's boomer liberals, for example. But in tone and timbre, the transition
of 2017 is of a different order entirely - in part because, as Sarah Purcell, a Grinnell College
historian, put it, "the result was so unexpected, the divisions are so pronounced, and the passions
are so great."
Besides the Washington transition, there is the transition in the profile of the two major parties
and the transition between those who found succor and success in the Barack Obama years and those
who found insult and indignity in it. "The people who were despondent about the Obama administration
were lurking in the background, and now they are front and center,'' said Steffan W. Schmidt, an
Iowa State political scientist. "And the people who supported the Obama administration are upset
and frightened and worried about retribution.''
Indeed, the Great Switch of 2017 involves those who feel their voices will now be heard and those
who worry theirs no longer will be heard.
"Black and brown people feel right now that the forces who opposed our rights of full citizenship
are coming into power,'' said Elaine Jones, former president and director-counsel of the NAACP's
Legal Defense Fund. "We now see that the people who fought us will be in office."
The Obama administration, to be sure, resembled the Obama electoral coalition - eggheads, upscale
professionals, and environmentalists, as well as the representatives of a multicultural America.
Trump's new administration looks less like his working-class voters than like Dwight Eisenhower's
Cabinet, which was once described as "nine millionaires and a plumber.'' Except there's not even
a plumber in the Trump inner circle. And the profile of his Cabinet leans more toward billionaires
than millionaires.
Especially if the Trump administration ends up pursuing a corporate-friendly economic policy,
working-class Americans' anxieties aren't going away. Half of working-class whites, according to
a CNN poll, expect their children's lives will be worse than their own. Two-thirds of the white working
class, according to separate CNN polls, believe hard work will no longer get people ahead in the
United States.
"This part of America is not participating in the economy the way they once did,'' said John Dick,
the new-generation pollster who is the CEO of CivicScience, a consumer and market intelligence company
in Pittsburgh. "Now they have a voice - but that voice speaks in the simplest possible narrative
about their difficulties."
The challenge for politicians courting these voters is to identify a policy agenda built on something
more than nostalgia - or explicit appeals to racial identity. Half of the Trump voters among a group
of white working-class Americans surveyed by CNN think that the increasing diversity of the United
States threatens the country's culture. The GOP nominee explicitly bemoaned the country's changing
demographics and shifting cultural norms.
His victory raises an uncomfortable question: Is there a less racially charged way of appealing
to a group whose members used to feel a sense of power but now see they're losing ground? Richard
L. Trumka, president of the AFL-CIO, believes that it is possible - and necessary. "Working people
in general are looking for someone to address their issues - issues they discuss every day around
the kitchen table: jobs, security, and health care,'' he said in a year-end interview. "Anyone who
comes out with that is going to get support from working people." Of course, Hillary Clinton made
just such an economic pitch but came up fatefully short in once-reliable Democratic counties.
The political shift that white working-class voters have now triggered could prove wrenching.
"This powerful reversal, where one group is now down and another is up, is a lot like the 1930s,''
says David Greenberg, a Rutgers historian. "Then you saw polarization not just between a liberal
party and a conservative party but also between different conceptions of what government is for.''
The Rust Belt needs a bailout.
A big one http://bv.ms/2fZvKEO
via @Bloomberg - Conor Sen - December 2
Trade and immigration restrictions won't bring back the Rust Belt. What might? Consider the
transformation of the Sun Belt.
The South used to be the nation's Rust Belt. The devastation of the Civil War rightly gets
the headlines, but the devastation didn't end when Sherman marched out of Atlanta. Industrial
agriculture had the same impact on the Southern economy that automation and outsourcing have had
on the manufacturing economy of the Midwest. In the late 19th century, much of the South consisted
of an increasingly uncompetitive agricultural economy and woefully inadequate infrastructure.
Those who could leave for other parts of the country, like factory jobs in what we now call the
Rust Belt, did.
The South used to be the nation's Rust Belt. The devastation of the Civil War rightly gets
the headlines, but the devastation didn't end when Sherman marched out of Atlanta. Industrial
agriculture had the same impact on the Southern economy that automation and outsourcing have had
on the manufacturing economy of the Midwest. In the late 19th century, much of the South consisted
of an increasingly uncompetitive agricultural economy and woefully inadequate infrastructure.
Those who could leave for other parts of the country, like factory jobs in what we now call the
Rust Belt, did.
Many parts of the South continue to struggle to this day, but those that are thriving embraced
two things -- infrastructure and recruitment. Much of the infrastructure was courtesy of the federal
government -- programs like the Tennessee Valley Authority during the Great Depression, military
bases during World War II and interstate highways later on. But the recruitment was an attitude
the New South adopted on its own. By seeking out talent and businesses from the rest of the country
and the world, the major metro areas of today's South generated some of the strongest economic
growth and most promising labor trends in the country.
The Rust Belt has two main challenges to address -- poor demographics and legacy obligations
in the form of pension costs and physical infrastructure that needs maintaining. The demographic
component is the part it most needs to solve on its own.
One type of institution has figured this out: the region's universities. Last week, in college
football, the University of Michigan played Ohio State University in their annual rivalry game.
But in some ways it wasn't a clash between Rust Belt foes. Michigan's coach, Jim Harbaugh, was
hired from the West Coast. Ohio State's coach, Urban Meyer, was hired from Florida. Both teams
have rosters full of increasing numbers of players from regions other than the Midwest. The reason
is simple. Youth populations are shrinking in the Midwest, and increasingly the best high school
football players are in other parts of the country like the South and the West that still have
growing populations. Both universities hired coaches from elsewhere, and both coaches are using
the prestige of their universities to recruit the best players in the country, no matter where
they're from.
This recruitment isn't just happening on the football field. To address enrollment shortfalls
due to dwindling numbers of home-grown students, Midwest universities are recruiting students
from all over the world. Two of the eight universities in the U.S. with more than 10,000 international
students are in the Midwest -- Purdue University and the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
As a recruitment pitch, the Midwest needs to figure out its message and sell it to the world.
As Midwest urbanist and blogger Pete Saunders noted in a tweetstorm this week, the resurgence
of coastal cities began with assets that the cities had all along. Wall Street and media for New
York, higher educational institutions for Boston, the federal government for Washington, a unique
topography and culture in San Francisco. Similarly, the Midwest has great educational and medical
institutions, an incredibly affordable lifestyle that becomes more compelling as housing costs
rise on the coasts and in the Sun Belt, plentiful water that could become a competitive advantage
because of climate change, and a sense of "rootedness" that many find compelling.
The most influential policy change the federal government could employ to "save" the Midwest
is one that would have been unthinkable when Congressional Republicans were battling President
Obama -- a huge bailout of the Rust Belt's legacy obligations. Pension costs are eating a higher
and higher share of tax revenue in cities like Chicago and states like Illinois. That leaves municipalities
less money to spend on ongoing operations and maintenance, let alone infrastructure improvements.
Eroding public services not only keep people from moving to the area, but also encourage young
people to leave for places with better public services. If President-Elect Donald Trump could
persuade Congress to bail out the region, that could the fiscal slate clean and give the Midwest
the breathing room to invest in its future.
It took a Nixon to go to China, perhaps it takes a Trump to save the Rust Belt.
Reasonable people can disagree. Then again - my views on these issues have dovetailed DeLong's
for over a decade. In fact he gave me credit for the "Natural Rate of the Employment to Population
Ratio" back in 2005. I should have patented the concept.
Donald Trump barreled into the White House with a "terrific" plan for infrastructure, and Washington
is abuzz with a seemingly "bipartisan" job-creation initiative. Though the GOP-dominated Congress
has for years thwarted similar infrastructure-based stimulus proposals, fiscal conservatives in
Washington and market profiteers nationwide are now fully confident in Trump's vision for shovel-ready
business partnerships.
After all, the one competency Trump has demonstrated so far seems to be making money off of
building stuff, from casinos and golf courses to his promised Mexican border wall.
But the public project of fixing America's crumbling bridges and highways is a different animal
than Trump's private real-estate empire of gleaming glass towers, at least for now.
Trump wants private investors to basically direct $1 trillion in infrastructure projects nationwide
through a "revenue neutral" financing plan, which banks on financing from private investors, allegedly
to control deficit spending (which the GOP generally deems wasteful, while promoting tax breaks
as a wiser redistribution of public funds into corporate coffers). To draw some $167 billion to
jumpstart the $1 trillion, 10-year infrastructure plan, Washington would grant a giant tax break
"equal to 82 percent of the equity amount." The goal isn't fixing bridges so much as fixing the
corporate tax codes to promote privatization and unregulated construction with virtually no public
input. Moreover, whereas effective stimulus plans aim to fill infrastructure gaps that big business
has ignored, Mike Konzcal observes in The Washington Post, that the developers Trump is courting
would follow the money and "back profitable construction projects. These projects (such as electrical
grid modernization or energy pipeline expansion) might already be planned or even underway."
Dave Dayen calls the program a "privatization fire sale" that ensured that private, not common,
interests determine where funding is focused.
Trump is further sweetening the pot by promising drastic deregulation that would "provide maximum
flexibility to the states" and "streamline permitting and approvals."
Activists now fear that Trump's job plan will yield relatively substandard jobs by mowing down
longstanding regulatory protections, including environmental review process (a critical tool activists
use to challenge developments that involve public-health threats) and prevailing wage regulations.
While private business partnerships on federal construction projects are routine, Trump's camp
is distinctly poised to launder corporate money through federal coffers at workers' and taxpayers'
expense.
The details of Trump's infrastructure vision are fairly sparse, summarized in a cheerleading
10-page pre-election analysis. But the author byline is telling: right-wing business professor
Peter Navarro and private equity mogul Wilbur Ross (Trump's pick for commerce secretary, with
historic links to the Sago mine accident scandal). And Trump's own investment track record speaks
volumes: The president-elect is facing allegations of major wage violations involving his latest
project site, which is sited on federal property, an antique Post Office to be transformed, in
Trump's words, into "truly one of the great hotels of the world."
It hasn't been so great for the non-union subcontracted construction workers who have complained
of getting paid below the wage standard that should apply under the federal Davis Bacon Act. Vice
President–elect Mike Pence, meanwhile, has actively pushed to repeal his state's similar prevailing
wage laws for publicly contracted workers.
Trump may have previewed his approach to publicly funded construction with his glamorous Bronx
golf course on a 192-acre landfill site, using public money to reclaim a wasteland for the benefit
of wealthy golfers, charging the highest fees of any other city golf grounds. Not only did it
colonize a tract of a borough starved for community recreational spaces and affordable housing,
it also produced a mere 100 local jobs and, according to community advocates, little additional
economic activity in the surrounding neighborhood.
Trump's real-estate portfolio embodies the long-term danger that watchdog groups see in so-called
"public-private partnerships" for infrastructure development.
In the Public Interest (ITPI) observed in a recent report on abuses of private contractors:
To maximize profit, companies have often cut corners by reducing the quality and accessibility
of services, reducing staffing levels, lowering worker wages, and sidestepping protections for
the public and the environment.
The stakes are higher now than ever. Get The Nation in your inbox.
"[T]he bottom line is that they will strip away standards, provide hefty subsidies and guaranteed
profits and hand over control over large scale projects for decades," according to ITPI executive
director Donald Cohen.
The overarching drive to privatize resources and services, meanwhile, might not only fail to
solve infrastructure problems but might also disrupt the structure of democracy; the process of,
for example, privatizing a highway or contracting out a public utility, in the long-term, effectively
outsources governance. "With control comes hidden information," Cohen adds. Institutionalizing
opacity in government-funded ventures could give corporations free reign to decide unilaterally
on electricity rates or easements on tribal lands.
There is no doubt that infrastructure investment is still crucial. However, a more progressive
approach would aim to bring more social equity into the private sector, not more profit motives
into government budgets.
An alternative, progressive infrastructure proposal, penned by Senator Bernie Sanders, would
operate on a similar scale as Trump's, with $1 trillion over five years. But instead of handing
a blank check to contractors, the budget would prioritize the critical infrastructure needs identified
by engineering authorities, and support stimulus through workers' wages rather than corporate
financing.
Such a plan could also be used to direct investment toward green energy development, expanding
public Wi-Fi networks, or increasing wage standards. While legislation to mandate these types
of projects and standards was continually stonewalled in the GOP-controlled congress, Obama did
manage, through a series of precedent-setting executive actions, to raise the minimum wage for
subcontracted federal workers, expand anti-discrimination protections, and to penalize subcontractors
who have failed to comply with regulations. Those initiatives may disappear as the new administration
takes over in January. Given that Trump has previously blown off crucial policy priorities like
the Paris Climate Change Treaty, there's no reason why his infrastructure plan should reflect
pro-worker interests.
If Trump is serious about rebuilding the country, his infrastructure program will both expose
his underlying kleptocratic motives and offer community and labor organizations an opportunity
to hold his administration accountable for spending responsibly.
Trump has big plans to make taxpayers and workers pay for his big gamble; the public has a
lot on the line, but also a chance to reclaim the public trust.
"An alternative, progressive infrastructure proposal, penned by Senator Bernie Sanders, would
operate on a similar scale as Trump's, with $1 trillion over five years. But instead of handing
a blank check to contractors, the budget would prioritize the critical infrastructure needs identified
by engineering authorities, and support stimulus through workers' wages rather than corporate
financing."
And the deplorables will do their best to make sure this is the last time.
"f you're in the area of 500 5th St in DC at 11:00AM on January 11, you might want to stop.
You could see something you may never see again
Valuing Climate Damages:
Updating Estimation of the Social Cost of Carbon Dioxide (Phase 2 report)
This new report from the Board on Environmental Change and Society of the National Academies
of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine examines potential approaches for a comprehensive update
to the current methodology for estimating the social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2) for U.S.
regulatory analysis. The SC-CO2 is an estimate, in dollars, of the net damages incurred by society
from a 1 metric ton increase in carbon dioxide emissions in a given year. As required by executive
orders and a court ruling, government agencies use the SC-CO2 when analyzing the impacts of various
regulations.
The report also recommends near- and longer-term research priorities. The study was requested
by the Interagency Working Group on the Social Cost of Greenhouse Gases, which is co-chaired by
the Council of Economic Advisors and the Office of Management and Budget."
A few more comments on the Republicans' Corporate Tax Plan
by Jared Bernstein
January 3rd, 2017 at 11:18 am
I didn't want to jam too much into my piece last week on the interesting Border Adjustment
Tax-come on peeps, you know that BAT is a much better acronym than DBCFT (destination-based-cash-flow
tax)-that House R's want to use to replace the current corporate tax. Like I said, it's a complicated
bit of work about which we know little, particularly regarding its impact on consumer prices (and
thus, its distributional impact) and on exchange rates.
That said, it's hard to imagine a scenario in which a tax that clearly favors net exports would
not lead to some degree of dollar appreciation. Ed Kleinbard, a guy who thinks deeply about such
things, makes the intuitive point that a multi-trillion-dollar side effect of the dollar appreciation
is a transfer of wealth from US investors with foreign holdings to foreign investors holding US
assets. He explains here using Freedonia to symbolize not-the-US:
It also follows from this that the transition to a destination based profits tax, and with
it the appreciation in the U.S. dollar, will work a one-time very large wealth transfer from U.S.
investors to foreign investors. Foreign investments held by U.S. investors overnight will be worth
less in dollar terms, and U.S. investments held by Freedonian investors overnight will be worth
more in Freedonian pfennig terms. Carroll and Viard have estimated that at the end of 2010 the
wealth transfer attributable to the introduction of border adjustments without any transition
relief would have amounted to a $7.88 trillion loss to American investors and an $8.85 trillion
pickup in wealth for foreign investors. As of the time of this writing, I am reasonably confident
that policymakers have not weighed the implications of this.
Those are many more trillions than I would have guessed, but note that the analysts Ed's citing
are strong proponents of the tax, so I don't think their thumb would be on the scale.
I'm not saying this is or should be a deal killer-any transition to a better corporate tax
system will create winners and losers. But I share Ed's "reasonable confidence" that policy makers
haven't thought much about this, and you can add US investors holding foreign assets to the retailers
and other producers that depend on imported inputs to the list of those who will fight hard against
the BAT.
One more point on this dollar appreciation business. I enjoyed this useful oped in today's
NYT about how Trump will probably have to go through Congress if he wants to increase tariffs
(I've seen some counter-arguments, but the NYT piece made more sense to me). But this part seemed
off (my italics):
A border adjustment tax is a far better option than tariffs. It would eliminate incentives
in the current tax system to manufacture abroad, and to shift income abroad. Unlike a tariff,
it aims to be trade neutral, with any changes in consumer pricing of imports and exports being
offset by a rise in the dollar. And with strong support in the House, it could be enacted in full
compliance with the Origination Clause, lending it legitimacy that a unilateral tariff would lack.
If the dollar fully adjusts, then the trade balance, which is measured in dollars, not quantities,
is unaffected. Tariffs, of course, are designed to improve the trade balance. I'm not sure they
would, and, in fact, I suspect our trading partners would retaliate against either tariffs or
a tax scheme that subsidized exports, so the impact on the trade balance of either of these interventions
is not clear. But a selling point by BAT proponents is that the balance of trade would be unaffected,
which is a very different selling point than the one offered by proponents of tariffs.
AS much as I appreciate what Jared is saying, he is pulling his punches. I have hinted at why
I hate the transfer pricing angles but I too have pulled my punches. Working on something (after
I clear this snow) for Econospeak that goes after what Auerbach ducks. Think Disney as I shovel.
Interesting, thought-provoking post from Tim Johnson in today's links. There's a video with
the Bank of England's chief economist Andy Haldane who also discusses Brexit.
Should-Read: Manufacturing-centric industrial policy works (or worked) best when the hegemon
of the world economy plays the role of the Importer of Last Resort. And only worked when there
was a highly competent government--which raises the possibility that pretty much any other non-nonsensical
development strategy would have worked as well...
Pseudoerasmus: The Bairoch Conjecture on Tariffs and Growth:* "There is a vast empirical literature
which finds a positive correlation between economic growth and various measures of openness to
international trade in the post-1945 period...
...This huge body of research does have a few very compelling critics, the most prominent being
Rodríguez & Rodrik (2000). That widely cited paper argues - amongst many other things - that there
is no necessary relationship between trade and growth, either way. It depends on the global context
as well as domestic economic conditions. I think that's correct. There is also a smaller literature
on 19th century trade and growth associated with the historian Paul Bairoch. He argued informally
that European countries with higher tariffs grew faster in the late 19th century. This rough eyeball
correlation was confirmed econometrically by O'Rourke (2000)... [and] Clemens & Williamson (2001,
2004), but was disputed by Irwin (2002).... Lehmann & O'Rourke (2008, 2011) then countered by
disaggregating tariffs of those 10 rich countries into revenue, agricultural, and industrial components,
reporting that duties specifically protecting the manufacturing sector were indeed correlated
with growth....
The positive growth-tariff relationship for the rich countries is large; much smaller for the
non-European periphery, and negative for the European periphery (e.g., Spain, Russia, etc.) So
obviously even with the same global conditions there's a lot of heterogeneity. According to Clemens
& Williamson (2001, 2004) the reason there was an overall positive correlation in the 19th century,
is that most countries with high tariffs exported to countries with lower tariffs. In other words,
Great Britain et al. acted as free-trade sinks (my phrase, not theirs) for exporting countries
such as post-Bismarckian Germany which protected their steel and other industries.... Jacks (2006)
- using the Frankel-Romer gravity model approach - both replicates O'Rourke (2000) and supports
the free-trade-sink view of Clemens & Williamson (2001, 2004).... Tena-Junguito (2010) focuses
on industrial tariffs and supports the other aspect of the Clemens & Williamson finding: the tariff-growth
correlation applies only to the "rich country club"...
It would be interesting to look at how possibly hegemonic Great Britain (or Cold War America)
acted as a free-trade sink/Importer of Last Resort in order to further its aims of diplomacy and
empire.
Manufacturing-centric industrial policy works (or worked) best when the hegemon of the world economy
plays the role of the Importer of Last Resort. And only worked when there was a highly competent
government--which raises the possibility that pretty much any other non-nonsensical development
strategy would have worked as well...
The Republican Party in 2018: I'm from the current administration of the US government and I am
here to take away your health insurance. And oh by the way, vote for us.
EMichael : , -1
"The election of 2016 may well have been stolen-or to use Donald Trump's oft-repeated phrase-"rigged,"
and nobody in the media seems willing to discuss it.
The rigging was a pretty simple process, in fact: in 27 Republican-controlled states (including
critical swing states) hundreds of thousands (possibly millions) of people showed up to vote,
but were mysteriously blocked from voting for allegedly being registered with the intent to vote
in multiple states.
Greg Palast, an award-winning investigative journalist, writes a stinging piece in the highly
respected Rolling Stone magazine (August 2016 edition), predicting that the November 8, 2016 presidential
election had already been decided: "The GOP's Stealth War Against Voters." He also wrote and produced
a brilliant documentary on this exact subject that was released well before the election, titled
The Best Democracy Money Can Buy.
He said a program called the Interstate Voter Registration Crosscheck had been quietly put
together in Kansas and was being used by Republican secretaries of state in 27 states to suppress
and purge African American, Asian and Hispanic votes in what would almost certainly be the swing
states of the 2016 election.
Crosscheck was started by Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach back in 2007 under the guise
of combating so-called voter fraud. In the ultimate thumb in the eye to the American voter, the
state where Crosscheck started was the only state to refuse to participate in a New York Times
review of voter fraud in the 2016 election, which found that, basically, there wasn't any fraud
at the level of individual voters. Turns out, according to Palast, that a total of 7 million voters-including
up to 344,000 in Pennsylvania, 589,000 in North Carolina and up to 449,000 in Michigan (based
on available Crosscheck data from 2014)-may have been denied the right to have their votes counted
under this little known but enormously potent Crosscheck program."
"... "Identity Politics" is now thrown about as an insult at many progressive activists. Critics
say that Identity Politics make everything about gender, everything about sexuality, and everything
about race. And to this I say: yes, yes, and hell yes. ..."
"The other day on Twitter, a man posted a picture of my coloring book he'd given his daughter
for Christmas. He was excited to give her a coloring book full of badass intersectional feminists.
He wanted to thank me for creating it.
"I don't know," chimed in a random stranger (because Twitter), "Sounds like identity politics
to me."
Hell yeah it does.
"Identity Politics" is now thrown about as an insult at many progressive activists. Critics
say that Identity Politics make everything about gender, everything about sexuality, and everything
about race. And to this I say: yes, yes, and hell yes.
Call it what you want. I don't care. Complain that we're making shit about race - you know
what? We are. Complain that we're keeping the left from focusing only on class - yup, and proudly
so. Complain all you want because I am not and will never be ashamed of focusing on the politics
of identity. I will not feel a moment's guilt for slowing this whole train down to make sure that
everyone can get on and we're on the right track. I will proudly own up to making shit hard for
you.
Apologies are highly over-rated. People apologize and then go right back to doing the same shit
all over again. Late in his brief life Martin Luther King refocused his civil rights movement
into the Poor People's Campaign and union activism because he wanted to win and new that social
division could keep him for winning. King did not suddenly turn towards advocating for only white
dudes. King got smart, so smart he became dangerous enough that a white dude killed him.
Most of the beneficiaries of King's Poor People's Campaign and his union activism would be
black people, but it would go further faster with less resistance from his natural allies, poor
white people maybe - but fair and decent white people more so, by being more inclusive rather
than inviting white backlash. Martin Luther King wanted to fulfill his dream for his people. It
is a lot easier to be just a self-absorbed and self-righteous loser than it is to be a winner.
The identity politics campaign that survived after Martin Luther King was murdered has done a
great job of winning, for Republicans.
"The identity politics campaign that survived after Martin Luther King was murdered has done a
great job of winning, for Republicans."
This is of course, correct. But I do not think it means what you think it means.
The GOP has done a great job of convincing white racists that the Dems have destroyed, or are
destroying, their lives. They have used identity politics for over 50 years. Now it is time(past
time) to turn that around and give them their own medicine.
In terms of King, he already had "fair and decent white people" with him, and the Dems do also.
Can't alienate, or worry about alienating, white racists. That white backlash has given the GOP
the majority of their votes the last 50 years. That number is not going to get better regardless
of Dem policy.
From your background working with lower income people I would think that you would not paint it
all so black and white as you do. There is a lot of gray area between racists and secular humanists
of activist conscience including a lot of church people and blue collar whites. A lot of these
are disaffected voters, nothing in it for them to vote. These were the people that King wanted
to include. If King's movement were just for black people then what reason would they have to
vote for liberals supporting his cause, that of blacks rather than lower income working people?
Martin Luther King's Economic Dream: A Guaranteed Income for All Americans
Jordan Weissmann Aug 28, 2013
One of the more under-appreciated aspects of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.'s legacy is that by
the end of his career, he had fashioned himself into a crusader against poverty, not just among
blacks, but all Americans.
In the weeks leading to his assassination, the civil rights leader had been hard at work organizing
a new march on Washington known as the "Poor People's Campaign." The goal was to erect a tent
city on the National Mall, that, as Mark Engler described it for The Nation in 2010, would "dramatize
the reality of joblessness and deprivation by bringing those excluded from the economy to the
doorstep of the nation's leaders." He was killed before he could see the effort through.
So what, exactly, was King's economic dream? In short, he wanted the government to eradicate
poverty by providing every American a guaranteed, middle-class income-an idea that, while light-years
beyond the realm of mainstream political conversation today, had actually come into vogue by the
late 1960s.
To be crystal clear, a guaranteed income-or a universal basic income, as it's sometimes called
today-is not the same as a higher minimum wage. Instead, it's a policy designed to make sure each
American has a certain concrete sum of money to spend each year. One modern version of the policy
would give every adult a tax credit that would essentially become a cash payment for families
that don't pay much tax. Conservative thinker Charles Murray has advocated replacing the whole
welfare state by handing every grown American a full $10,000.
King had an even more expansive vision. He laid out the case for the guaranteed income in his
final book, 1967's Where Do We Go From Here: Chaos or Community? Washington's previous efforts
to fight poverty, he concluded, had been "piecemeal and pygmy." The government believed it could
lift up the poor by attacking the root causes of their impoverishment one by one-by providing
better housing, better education, and better support for families. But these efforts had been
too small and too disorganized. Moreover, he wrote, "the programs of the past all have another
common failing-they are indirect. Each seeks to solve poverty by first solving something else."
It was time, he believed, for a more straightforward approach: the government needed to make
sure every American had a reasonable income.
In part, King's thinking seemed to stem from a sense that no matter how strongly the economy might
grow, it would never eliminate poverty entirely, or provide jobs for all. As he put it:
"We have come a long way in our understanding of human motivation and of the blind operation
of our economic system. Now we realize that dislocations in the market operation of our economy
and the prevalence of discrimination thrust people into idleness and bind them in constant or
frequent unemployment against their will. The poor are less often dismissed from our conscience
today by being branded as inferior and incompetent. We also know that no matter how dynamically
the economy develops and expands it does not eliminate all poverty.
[...]
The problem indicates that our emphasis must be two-fold. We must create full employment or we
must create incomes. People must be made consumers by one method or the other. Once they are placed
in this position, we need to be concerned that the potential of the individual is not wasted.
New forms of work that enhance the social good will have to be devised for those for whom traditional
jobs are not available."
Note, King did not appear to be arguing that Washington should simply pay people not to work.
Rather, he seemed to believe it was the government's responsibility to create jobs for those left
behind by the economy (from his language here, it's not hard to imagine he might even have supported
a work requirement, in some circumstances), but above all else, to ensure a basic standard of
living.
More than basic, actually. King argued that the guaranteed income should be "pegged to the
median of society," and rise automatically along with the U.S. standard of living. "To guarantee
an income at the floor would simply perpetuate welfare standards and freeze into the society poverty
conditions," he wrote. Was it feasible? Maybe. He noted an estimate by John Kenneth Galbraith
that the government could create a generous guaranteed income with $20 billion, which, as the
economist put it, was "not much more than we will spend the next fiscal year to rescue freedom
and democracy and religious liberty as these are defined by 'experts' in Vietnam."
As practical economics, ensuring every single American a middle class living through government
redistribution and work programs seems a bit fanciful. The closest such an idea ever really came
to fruition, meanwhile, was President Nixon's proposed Family Assistance Plan, which would have
ended welfare and instead guaranteed families of four $1,600 a year, at a time when the median
household income was about $7,400.
But as a statement of values, King's notion remains powerful. So with that in mind, I'll leave
you with man's own words:
"The contemporary tendency in our society is to base our distribution on scarcity, which has
vanished, and to compress our abundance into the overfed mouths of the middle and upper classes
until they gag with superfluity. If democracy is to have breadth of meaning, it is necessary to
adjust this inequity. It is not only moral, but it is also intelligent. We are wasting and degrading
human life by clinging to archaic thinking.
The curse of poverty has no justification in our age. It is socially as cruel and blind as
the practice of cannibalism at the dawn of civilization, when men ate each other because they
had not yet learned to take food from the soil or to consume the abundant animal life around them.
The time has come for us to civilize ourselves by the total, direct and immediate abolition of
poverty."
Good point about MLK and support for the Memphis Santiation workers strike.
I agree with your take. You can alieniate people on the fence. You can ween sons and daughters
from the racism of their parents, if you have an economy with shared prosperity and opportunity
like in the 1950s and 1960s. Their parents' scapegoating will fall on deaf ears if they have good
jobs and lives. Stupid racist grandparent.
What have been possible to elect a black president back then before decades of economic progress?
No.
Economic stagnation is fertile ground for scapegoating and xenophobia.
Yep. More than alienation, King needed inclusion to gain effective political solidarity. We don't
have that much of a democracy, but minority rule only works here for the rich.
In the recent HBO series on LBJ and his passage of the Civil Rights legislation, the screenwriters
had the unions - specifically the autoworkers - funding MLK's civil rights campaign.
MLK was unhappy with LBJ's compromises on the first act in 1964, but then Walter Reuther told
him to back off and wait for LBJ to get the rest of what they wanted the second time around, which
LBJ did to some degree in 1965. MLK listened in part b/c the unions were funding his campaign.
According to the screenwriters. I don't know how true it is.
"In Shelby County v. Holder (2013), the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the coverage formula
as unconstitutional, reasoning that it was no longer responsive to current conditions.[11] The
Court did not strike down Section 5, but without a coverage formula, Section 5 is unenforceable.[12]"
The progressive neoliberals suggest that it's not worth to try to appeal to the white working
class or to try to change their minds.
I would suggest it doesn't work to try to move to the center on economics and appeal to upper
middle class or upper class voters. Suburban Republican women voted for Trump even though he was
obnoxious.
One needs to get the poor and working class politically active and involved in fighting for
their fair share as MLK was doing instead of relying on the noblesse oblige of wealthier classes.
The progressive neoliberals want to be Republican lite with their talk about opportunity and
entrepreneurship. That helps with wealthy donors but isn't a good long term strategy as it alienates
your working class base.
"... War is evil. So St Augustine devised this doctrine of 'just war', standards to which US has failed since 1945. Then Obama comes up with the idea of "just peace', we should have read in detail his Nobel lecture! Neocon pap! ..."
"... If Clinton decides the peace is not just then organized murder is the detail for the week. Economies are sometime zero sum games and you can get Ike's 1953 speech for what you give up for a destroyer..... ..."
'if building aircraft carriers saved the economy in 1941, and
defenses against imaginary aliens would save the economy in
2013, it's not clear why real aircraft carriers have the
opposite effect.'
Not ALL of economics is a zero-sum game.
USING munitions destroys the economies of others.
It's not as if preparing to engage aliens is actually
going to go anywhere which leads to that, tinfoil-hat-wise.
(That may be the advantage of building expensive,
impossibly risky-to-use nuclear weapons - which also might be
of use against aliens!)
Of course, the case will be made that 'destroying
the economies of others' is also a Good Thing in the long
run.
The overriding complaint about 'economic efforts devoted to
building armaments' is that such resulting goods are of NO
civilian use.
Aside from post-war battleship tours
and the like. Aside from all the wondrous technological
developments which always ensue, but most importantly the
industrial capacity that is put to civilian use in peacetime.
War is evil. So St Augustine devised this doctrine of
'just war', standards to which US has failed since 1945. Then
Obama comes up with the idea of "just peace', we should have
read in detail his Nobel lecture! Neocon pap!
If
Clinton decides the peace is not just then organized murder
is the detail for the week. Economies are sometime zero sum
games and you can get Ike's 1953 speech for what you give up
for a destroyer.....
As long as no kid of a war plant worker goes
hungry........ or has to drive a beater when she gets 16.
I see the pentagon trough as expensive term life. For the
past 70 years the US has bet over $28T and around 100000 KIA
(probably 15000 more killed in training events) that evil
'enemies' are going to muck with Neocon's or whomever's "just
peace"*.
Since 1950 war has been a huge, more than Smedley
Butler's wars for the bankers in Central America, racket.
For the do overs and weapons bought for the sole benefit
of the trough there is only local 'welfare'.
Outside of indivisible public goods [as Arrow and others
studied] government spending is not efficient.
Where markets fail government should intervene, unless the
standard of 'justice' is profit for the rentier.
Think of it next time someone wants to dump on Iran.
Richard M. Nixon always denied it: to David Frost, to
historians and to Lyndon B. Johnson, who had the strongest
suspicions and the most cause for outrage at his successor's
rumored treachery. To them all, Nixon insisted that he had
not sabotaged Johnson's 1968 peace initiative to bring the
war in Vietnam to an early conclusion. "My God. I would never
do anything to encourage" South Vietnam "not to come to the
table," Nixon told Johnson, in a conversation captured on the
White House taping system.
Now we know Nixon lied. A newfound cache of notes left by
H. R. Haldeman, his closest aide, shows that Nixon directed
his campaign's efforts to scuttle the peace talks, which he
feared could give his opponent, Vice President Hubert H.
Humphrey, an edge in the 1968 election. On Oct. 22, 1968, he
ordered Haldeman to "monkey wrench" the initiative.
The 37th president has been enjoying a bit of a revival
recently, as his achievements in foreign policy and the
landmark domestic legislation he signed into law draw
favorable comparisons to the presidents (and president-elect)
that followed. A new, $15 million face-lift at the Nixon
presidential library, while not burying the Watergate
scandals, spotlights his considerable record of
accomplishments.
Haldeman's notes return us to the dark side. Amid the
reappraisals, we must now weigh apparently criminal behavior
that, given the human lives at stake and the decade of
carnage that followed in Southeast Asia, may be more
reprehensible than anything Nixon did in Watergate.
Nixon had entered the fall campaign with a lead over
Humphrey, but the gap was closing that October. Henry A.
Kissinger, then an outside Republican adviser, had called,
alerting Nixon that a deal was in the works: If Johnson would
halt all bombing of North Vietnam, the Soviets pledged to
have Hanoi engage in constructive talks to end a war that had
already claimed 30,000 American lives.
But Nixon had a pipeline to Saigon, where the South
Vietnamese president, Nguyen Van Thieu, feared that Johnson
would sell him out. If Thieu would stall the talks, Nixon
could portray Johnson's actions as a cheap political trick.
The conduit was Anna Chennault, a Republican doyenne and
Nixon fund-raiser, and a member of the pro-nationalist China
lobby, with connections across Asia.
"! Keep Anna Chennault working on" South Vietnam, Haldeman
scrawled, recording Nixon's orders. "Any other way to monkey
wrench it? Anything RN can do."
Nixon told Haldeman to have Rose Mary Woods, the
candidate's personal secretary, contact another nationalist
Chinese figure - the businessman Louis Kung - and have him
press Thieu as well. "Tell him hold firm," Nixon : .
Bombs and mines from the Nixon years of the War in Vietnam
were cleaned from neighboring Laos and Cambodia for years
after the war ended and are still unfortunately found today.
"
Socialists, [neo]liberals insist, are just as bad as
fascists.
[they claim that] Now is not the time to
criticize the Democrats. [neo]Liberalism is working.
Women and people of color who criticize identity politics are
rendered white men or called self-hating. Glenn Greenwald is
a Russian agent.
Leftists are accused of believing that only class
matters...
Russians Ridicule US Charge That Kremlin
Meddled to Help Trump http://nyti.ms/2i4mL60
NYT - ANDREW HIGGINS - January 7, 2017
... Margarita Simonyan, the editor in chief of RT, a state-funded television network that broadcasts
in English, who is cited repeatedly in the report, posted her own message on Twitter scoffing
at the American intelligence community's accusations.
"Aaa, the CIA report is out! Laughter of the year! Intro to my show from 6 years ago is the
main evidence of Russia's influence at US elections. This is not a joke!" she wrote.
Even Russians who have been critical of their government voiced dismay at the United States
intelligence agencies' account of an elaborate Russian conspiracy unsupported by solid evidence.
...
Yeah, I'll believe anything that appears in the Russian press.
"Sitting next to Putin was RT's 36-year-old editor-in-chief, Margarita Simonyan, a raven-haired
former state television reporter who took over RT when she was 25. She is a feisty defender of
her network, often lashing out against critics-and there are many-who say RT is little more than
a weapon in a Russian information war against the West. Secretary of State John Kerry calls the
network a "propaganda bullhorn" for Putin; it has been a subject at House and Senate foreign affairs
hearings; and, in mid-March, two U.S. senators introduced the Countering Information Warfare Act,
which is aimed in part at the network. Simonyan almost seems to enjoy battling RT's legions of
critics. When a BuzzFeed reporter asked her in 2014 about alleged Kremlin influence, Simonyan
unleashed a mocking reply. "[W]e just read the latest Kremlin press releases on camera. It is
much more efficient that way," she wrote on RT's website, adding sardonically that the network
"unleash[es] the KGB on anyone who dares to leave." And yet, Simonyan does in fact keep a yellow
telephone with no dial pad on her desk, which Simonyan conceded to a Time reporter last year is
a secure line to the Kremlin.
In his remarks at the dinner, Putin showed obvious pride in the network, saying its efforts
reminded him of the way hardworking Russian sailors tear the shirts off their backs. He most decidedly
wasn't mentioning that hotline to the Kremlin on Simonyan's desk or Kerry's scathing dismissal
of his "bullhorn." Far from it. "Your greatest strength is presenting information freely and independently,"
Putin told the crowd, who sipped wine in translucent chairs around white-clothed tables. "We do
not control you. and we do not meddle," Putin said. He also boasted that RT has a reach of 700
million viewers, though he conceded they had no idea how many people actually watch; U.S. officials
say the American viewership is much lower than RT's estimate of 8 million per week on cable systems
like Comcast, Time Warner and Dish Network. (They are also skeptical of RT's claim to have a budget
of only $250 million worldwide. In March, Republican Senator Rob Portman cited reports saying
the cost of the network's Washington bureau alone could be $400 million, though RT adamantly denies
that, and the original source of the report is unclear.)
Putin did hint at RT's role in the political war Russia finds itself waging with the West,
referring to the "complicated" state of global politics and "distortions of events," including
in Ukraine and Syria, and saying that RT can describe "the true events" to a growing global audience
yearning for unbiased facts.
But Putin's comments are at odds with how the network operates in practice, according to interviews
with people who closely watch or have worked at RT, and my own hours of monitoring the network
and its website. One former RT staffer in Washington told me that she left her job, along with
others who have also spoken to the media, after seeing the network's Moscow-based editors instruct
journalists to make their coverage hew to the Moscow-approved political line. Such concerns erupted
into full view a couple years ago when Russia marched into neighboring Ukraine to annex the Crimean
Peninsula, leading a 28-year-old RT presenter named Liz Wahl to quit on-air, declaring, "I cannot
be a part of a network funded by the Russian government that whitewashes the actions of Putin."
Just under the surface is a bought-and-paid-for propaganda vehicle trying to nudge viewers
toward Russia's side of the story at a time when Moscow has increasingly become an international
pariah.
Today, it's clear RT operates less as the free and independent news source Putin touted, and
more as a vehicle that increasingly uses the available tools of the digital revolution-from viral
videos ("Animated Genitals," "Lawnmower Explodes") to entertainingly snarky tweets-to promote
Russia's message. It's positioning itself as a scrappy dissenter to the old Western media's monopoly
on information, a theme Simonyan emphasized to me in a statement for this story. Americans, she
said, watch RT for "stories, views and analysis they won't find in the mainstream media." As for
criticism of RT's coverage of the United States and the 2016 campaign, she sounded a positively
Trumpian theme, saying RT's critics are "mostly members of the U.S. political establishment, who
are uncomfortable with losing the longtime monopoly on information."
RT has value in present circumstance similar (but less) to what BBC and Voice of America has
for Soviet people before that.
The fact that it is propaganda outlet of Russian government does not change this simple fact.
Soviet people also understood very well that the BBC and Voice of America are far from impartial
and propagate the point of view of corresponding governments. That understood all to well that
some information will be lies and disinformation and it provided by people who escape and hold
grudges against the USSR. Still they wanted "the second opinion" so badly that this
consideration overweighs all others. Even if in some cases they will be taken for a ride.
I think a very similar situation exists now in the USA. Neoliberal MSM were disgusting during
Presidential complain. As Trump supporter I simply could not read them.
And it is not surprising for them that now the US MSM are not trusted and people want a second
opinion on the MSM coverage of foreign and (increasingly) domestic events.
RT fills this niche and that's probably partially explains its popularity.
I personally seldom use it (and find some of its shows are quite annoying) as blogs and alternative
media such as therealnews.com unz.com, antiwar.com, counterpunch.org, etc can fill the same role.
I would like them to give Snowden a role of an independent security commentator. He probably understands
the current McCarthyism witch hunt better then others. And he has real technical knowledge
necessary for covering those events.
But some articles it published are good or even excellent and provide a decent insight into
the events in question.
"... But it is not just what people call "the Great Recession" and should call "the Longer Depression". It is the long, steady decline in safe interest rates at all maturities since 1990: the decline in short-term safe real interest rates from 4% to -1.5%, and the decline in long-term safe real interest rates from 5% to 1%." ..."
"... "We're just barely over the border into normality, which is why I think the Fed should hold and we could still use some fiscal stimulus for insurance, and very low rates still make the case for lots of infrastructure spending. But it's not the same as it was.'" ..."
The Longer Depression: But now the wheel of history has
turned once again. We have a Second Gilded Age. We have
had what looks to have been either the second-largest or
the largest adverse financial business-cycle shock in
history. We have had an economic downturn followed by a
very slow recovery that has produced and will produce a
cumulative output gap vis-a-vis potential that will rival
and may well exceed the Great Depression itself as a
multiple of the economy's productive potential.
But it is not just what people call "the Great
Recession" and should call "the Longer Depression". It is
the long, steady decline in safe interest rates at all
maturities since 1990: the decline in short-term safe real
interest rates from 4% to -1.5%, and the decline in
long-term safe real interest rates from 5% to 1%."
Krugman insists things are basically the same. We're
almost back to normal. Progressive Neoliberalism. Really,
these people need to be sidelined.
Bernie Sanders was completely right.
"We're just barely over the border into normality,
which is why I think the Fed should hold and we could
still use some fiscal stimulus for insurance, and very low
rates still make the case for lots of infrastructure
spending. But it's not the same as it was.'"
No it's not the same as it was, as DeLong points out.
1. Jason Furman Obama's chief economist, says, 'Aging
workforce and declining productivity are driving slower
growth' & "Furman noted that productivity is declining all
around the world"
2. "Former Obama chief economist Alan Krueger told the
panel that the administration might have accepted a lower
growth rate in order to foster a "no-drama" economy so that
the financial sector could heal from the financial crisis."
3. "Hubbard and John Taylor, a Stanford University
professor, argued that new policies could make a difference.
Sluggish growth "is due to policy," Taylor said. "What you
need is a whole set of policies" to address the problem"
I am drawn to Krueger and Furman's views b/c they are
based on the past 8 years experience but shocked by Hubbard
and Taylor's since their views are solely based on Trump
Economic Team Hype without reference to specific concrete
Policy or even a known proposal by Trump's team
"Suggesting Trump's economic plans can spark growth closer
to 3% is 'wishful thinking,' Obama adviser says"
'Aging workforce and declining productivity are driving
slower growth, Furman says'
By Greg Robb, Senior economics reporter...Jan 7,
2017...4:42 p.m. ET
"CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Republican economists were upbeat
Saturday that President-elect Donald Trump's economic
policies could get the economy growing closer to a
sustainable 3% annual rate, but the suggestion was greeted
with skepticism by a senior member President Obama's economic
team.
At the moment, the Congressional Budget Office estimates
the economy's sustainable growth rate is 1.8%, down from a
historical rate above 3%.
During a bipartisan panel discussion at the American
Economic Association meeting, Glenn Hubbard, dean of the
Columbia University Business School, said Trump's plans could
get GDP growth "up to 2.75% or so."
While the details of Trump's policies remain unknown, the
combination of broad-based tax reform, regulatory reform,
infrastructure and military spending could boost the economy,
Hubbard said.
However, Jason Furman, Obama's chief economist, shot back
that Republicans were ignoring the "massive" depressing
impact on growth from an aging workforce.
"This is going to matter a lot. If you forecast something
like 2%-2.2% [growth], it is going to take your budget in one
direction, if you forecast 2.75% or higher, it is going to
take your budget in a different direction, he said.
Furman said of growth rates of 2.75% or higher would be
further away from the forecast of mainstream economists "than
any budget in the last 24 years."
"Part of how you get higher is wishful thinking," Furman
said. Details of any tax cut will matter, he said.
However, Hubbard and John Taylor, a Stanford University
professor, argued that new policies could make a difference.
Sluggish growth "is due to policy," Taylor said. "What you
need is a whole set of policies" to address the problem, he
added.
"Where we are now in this economy...is that some
structural reforms have the potential for not only a
long-term benefit which as economists we emphasize but also
short-run," Taylor said.
Taylor said poor U.S. economic policies "had a huge
influence" on productivity growth, which has been weakening
since 2005.
"There is an opportunity for reversal," he said.
But Furman noted that productivity is declining all around
the world, which suggests that Obamacare and other U.S.
regulations might not be the cause of the decline.
Former Obama chief economist Alan Krueger told the panel
that the administration might have accepted a lower growth
rate in order to foster a "no-drama" economy so that the
financial sector could heal from the financial crisis.
"Part of that was by design, part of that was...an attempt
to make the financial system safer to ensure that banks
raised more capital as a buffer against shocks. It probably
has come at the cost of some growth," Krueger said.
"Going forward...I think we may go from a no-drama economy
to something very different," he added."
They work for the guy who chooses to blame the Russians and
ignore the crooked party he led. Who borrowed $1422B and his
mouthpieces said the deficit was <$600B......
They say the
same things to John Lennon about Peace!
Who knows what happens in the future?
Someone should have heard the guy who said 'it makes no
sense to run Qaddafi's weapons from Benghazi to the jihadis',
and 'don't send the ambassador over there late in the day'.
I am reminded of what the losers, the naysayers said about
Bernie's ideas.
Too much opinion, and not enough let's try it rather than
saying "it cannot be done".
Answer to the point about aging workforce: EPR for under
54 year olds has plenty of slack. As to productivity that is
a "on the one hand" proposition.
I would have a tarot reading before I listened to the
Obama guys.
It seems the lightning speed spread of contingent labor in
the 2010s should be evidence of this. Contingent labor as
in being "on call" for positions such as retail clerk. A person
who must be available for uncertain hours loses the opportunity
to find a second job. The employer demanding contingent labor
is essentially demanding uncompensated work hours.
In any event, the practice seems to have become near universal
by a couple years ago, suggesting a level of employer market
power far in excess of what one would think by looking at
numbers like the official unemployment rate. It may also suggest
that labor market monopsony may exist at quite small employer
size.
What you describe is in general not due to monopsony. There
is still a substantial number of independent retail and other
companies that are not (explicitly) coordinating their actions
and job function designs.
It is just regular supply and
demand dynamics, in combination with social feedback (actors
observing what "peers" are getting away with and trying the
same, and after a while it works its ways into a new normal).
In corporate lingo it is known as "best practices" - don't
innovate process, just copy what has worked elsewhere.
retail and other companies that are not (explicitly) coordinating
"
Although they have an app for coordinating plus incentive
to coordinate, they fully understand that by the time they
begin coordinating the game is over. The game for brick and
mortar retail is now hanging by a tread.
16% of retail is now intertube orders being shipped out
by USPS, Fedex, Amazon airship drone & UPS. For the next 2
years the 16% will double each year then slowly expand toward
the 99% asymptote. Sure!
When you ski at Aspen you will see old-time-y shops for
retail, shops that only the wealthy will use for more than
window-shop. Plenty time for best practices but
cm,
"companies that are not (explicitly) coordinating their actions
and job function designs."
That happens by default.
Wall-Mart dominates retail (5K stores I think out of over
11,593 stores and clubs in 28 countries) and it is a very
cruel company. Other companies copy Wall-Mart practices.
They have no "social conscience" at all and try to drive
their labor as hard as possible paying as little as possible.
In other words, they can be viewed as a corporate psychopath.
P8 Keynesian Complexity
................
"But no one appears to have understood the fundamental
insights of Keynesian complexity: the system as whole does
not act as a simple aggregate of the actions of the
individual agents within the system. Pre-Keynesian
macroeconomics was based centrally on the misunderstanding
that the macroeconomy can be understood by scaling up the
microeconomic behaviors of individual agents. While Keynes
forcefully rejected this thesis, and created a complex system
view of the macroeconomy, simple-minded followers failed to
understand complexity, and went back to the pre-Keynesian
views."
........................
https://weapedagogy.wordpress.com/2017/01/07/p8-keynesian-complexity/
RGC -> RGC...
, -1
Paul Samuelson on Keynes (same link):
Ironically, failure
to understand Keynes led to dismissal and contempt "Paul
Samuelson felt he could say that "it is remarkable that so
active a brain would have failed to make any contribution to
economic theory . .." (cited in John Foster 2006).
Because Samuelson could not understand the complexity of
Keynesian theory, he wrote that: "[The General Theory] is a
badly written book, poorly organized; any layman who,
beguiled by the author's previous reputation, bought the book
was cheated of his 5 shillings. It is not well suited for
classroom use. It is arrogant, bad-tempered, polemical, and
not overly generous in its acknowledgements. It abounds with
mares' nests and confusions: involuntary unemployment, wage
units, the equality of savings and investment, the timing of
the multiplier, interactions of marginal efficiency upon the
rate of interest, forced savings, own rates of interest, and
many others. In it the Keynesian system stands out
indistinctly, as if the author were hardly aware of its
existence or cognizant of its properties; and certainly he is
at his worst when expounding its relations to its
predecessors."
Samuelson's arrogance in believing that he understood the
Keynesian system better than Keynes created the biggest
barrier to understanding Keynes for 20th Century economists.
Because of his stature, he became the authorized interpreter
of Keynes, and very few went back to original writings to try
to understand them. Those who did also failed to come to
grips with complexity, and as a result, it is impossible to
count the variety of interpretations of Keynes - see for
example, Backhouse and Bateman. The Keynesian elephant has a
huge number of parts, it seems.
Brad DeLong * catches John Cochrane ** being remarkably
dense:
"Paul Krugman recommended, with refreshing clarity, that
the US government fake an alien invasion so we could spend
trillions of dollars building useless defenses. (I'm not
exactly sure why he does not call for real defense spending.
After all, if building aircraft carriers saved the economy in
1941, and defenses against imaginary aliens would save the
economy in 2013, it's not clear why real aircraft carriers
have the opposite effect. But I'm still working on the
nuances of new-Keynesianism, so I'll let him explain the
difference. I'm not a big fan of huge defense spending
anyway.)"
As I've explained before, *** the alien thing was a modern
riff on Keynes's coalmine thought experiment. **** It's worth
quoting that one in full:
"It is curious how common sense, wriggling for an escape
from absurd conclusions, has been apt to reach a preference
for wholly 'wasteful' forms of loan expenditure rather than
for partly wasteful forms, which, because they are not wholly
wasteful, tend to be judged on strict 'business' principles.
For example, unemployment relief financed by loans is more
readily accepted than the financing of improvements at a
charge below the current rate of interest; whilst the form of
digging holes in the ground known as gold-mining, which not
only adds nothing whatever to the real wealth of the world
but involves the disutility of labour, is the most acceptable
of all solutions.
"If the Treasury were to fill old bottles with banknotes,
bury them at suitable depths in disused coalmines which are
then filled up to the surface with town rubbish, and leave it
to private enterprise on well-tried principles of
laissez-faire to dig the notes up again (the right to do so
being obtained, of course, by tendering for leases of the
note-bearing territory), there need be no more unemployment
and, with the help of the repercussions, the real income of
the community, and its capital wealth also, would probably
become a good deal greater than it actually is. It would,
indeed, be more sensible to build houses and the like; but if
there are political and practical difficulties in the way of
this, the above would be better than nothing."
In a way, I'm amazed by economists who find this sort of
thing absurd on its face. Leave macroeconomics on one side:
what about the theory of the second best? This theory - which
is just basic micro - says that when some markets are
distorted, for whatever reason, social costs and benefits
across the economy don't correspond to private costs, so that
unprofitable, even seemingly wasteful activities can
sometimes be beneficial. And an economy in which millions of
willing workers can't find work is surely one with massive
distortions of some kind.
Oh, and let's always remember that Keyensians like me
don't believe that thing like the paradox of thrift and the
paradox of flexibility are the way the economy normally
works. They're very much exceptional, applying only when
interest rates are up against the zero lower bound.
Unfortunately, that happens to be the world we're currently
living in.
Fund Managers: Do fund managers from less wealthy families
have better performance (as compared to fund managers from
wealthier families) because they have higher competence
levels (the implication of the study supported by Taylor)
or because they are willing to take on more risk (the
implication of being less wealthy). I find the latter
explanation more convincing: those growing up in wealthy
families learn capital preservation, while those growing
up in families with less wealth learn capital creation. Or
not. Today, so-called alternative investments have become
the norm, even (or especially) among not for profits, made
famous by Yale's David Swensen. But Swensen was following
a trend, a trend established among very wealthy families
who pooled their wealth in search of higher returns
necessitated by an increasing number of heirs to support.
What otherwise rational people forget is that only in Lake
Wobegon can everyone be above average. Everyone chasing
the elusive higher return requires an increasing level of
risk; hence, the emphasis on higher asset prices (i.e.,
speculation) and the risk of financial crises.
I don't know specifically for fund managers, but generally
people from wealthier families have better social
connections, allowing them to stay in jobs while not
performing at par, or be hired into higher level positions
as a favor to somebody.
That doesn't necessarily mean
they are better or worse, only that they get better
observed outcomes.
Somebody not well connected will probably be fired more
quickly for underperforming or committing a blunder, and
find it more difficult to be hired or promoted into
"visible" positions to begin with.
"how to mirror the cultural cues of
customers and hiring managers"
I generally recognize these cues (of the genuinely cultural as
well as the "probing/confirming social status differential" type - and perhaps not their meaning
but their presence), but I have always found it difficult to tell the point where it goes from
politeness and reasonable accommodation to servility, flattery, and general phoniness. So I have
stayed more conservative in the "mirroring" or matching, which is of course not doing me any
favors.
And social behaviors are not necessarily "not rational" just because they cannot be described
succinctly in a formal theory.
Most social behaviors are about determining (assuming the presence of "cheaters" or "posers")
whether the other side is trustworthy, in the sense of conforming to expectations and being able
to deliver their part of a transaction. This requires that they are complex and not easily
formalized, so they cannot be easily gamed by calculating manipulators.
Primates are basically tribal, with trustworthiness being strongly associated with
group-belonging.
"The MSM is building a case to do Putin like the one to do Assad."
I am not sure about that. I think this anti-Russian hysteria is mainly for internal consumption and designed to put a smoke
screen of the problem of the US neoliberal society and increase the cohesion of population, which essentially rejected neoliberal
elite during the recent elections.
The bout of McCarthyism that we observe now might also be an attempt to de-legitimize Trump presidency and to tie his hands.
This Machiavellian trick with expulsion of diplomats that Nobel Peace Price winner played with Russians recently suggests the
latter. Deep state that controls the US foreign policy feels the threat and reacts accordingly.
Too many people in Washington are "national security parasites" and are dependent of continuation of wars for the expansion
of the US led global neoliberal empire.
Trump promised to drain the swamp, but he probably underestimated the level of resistance he will encounter. Just look at hissy
fits that WaPo and NYT is still engaged it. They really behave like Putin agent is ascending into position of POTUS :-). The same
is true of some commenters here.
They feel threatened by the rejection of their ideology and are ready to do purges in best Trotskyites tradition. As I mentioned
before they are really "Latter Date Trotskyites" in most of their ideological postulates.
Use of violence for the spread of the ideology. A totalitarian vision for a world-encompassing monolithic global state
(US led neoliberal empire) governed by an ideologically charged "vanguard".
Creation and maintenance of the illusion of "immanent threat" from powerful enemies for brainwashing the population (National
Security State instead of "Dictatorship of proletariat").
Purges of dissent via neo-McCarthyism tactics.
The mantle of inevitability (famous TINA statement of Margaret Thatcher)
The study of neoclassical economics as the key method of indoctrination of people with economists as a class of well paid
priests of neoliberal ideology.
War on, and brutal suppression of organized labor. While in Soviet Russia organized labor was emasculated and trade unions
became part of government apparatus, under neoliberalism they are simply decimated. It "atomize" individual workers presenting
them as goods on the "labor market" controlled by large corporations ( via the myth of human capital ). Neoliberals see the
market as a semi-sacred element of human civilization. They want to create global labor market that favors transnational corporations.
The idea of "employability" is characteristically neoliberal. It means that neoliberals see it as a moral duty of human beings,
to arrange their lives to maximize their value on the labor market. Paying for plastic surgery to improve employability (almost
entirely by women) is a typical neoliberal phenomenon -- one that would surprise Adam Smith.
The pseudoscientific (or quasi-religious) myth of "free-market" (why not "fair"?). with neoclassical economy instead of
"Marxist political economy" which provides a pseudo-scientific justification for the greed and poverty endemic to the system.
Set of powerful myths, which like in Marxism create a "secular religion". Such as on "Free Trade", "Invisible Hand Hypothesis",
"Rational expectations" scam, "Shareholder value" scam, etc. Fake promises of prosperity, which are not unlike the rhetoric
of the Communist Party of the USSR about "proletariat" as the ruling class to which all benefits belongs.
Scapegoating and victimization of poor as new Untermensch. This is a part of Randism and is closely related to glorification
of the "creative class".
Rejection of the normal interpretation of the rule of the law and the idea of "neoliberal justice" (tough justice for Untermensch
only).
Cult of GDP. Like Marxism, neoliberalism reduces individuals to statistics contained within aggregate economic performance.
It professes that GDP growth is the ultimate goal of any society. This is very similar to the USSR cult of gross national product.
As Pope noted it is distinctly anti-Christian ideology, much like Trotskyism:
== quote ===
... Such an [neoliberal] economy kills. How can it be that it is not a news item when an elderly homeless person dies of exposure,
but it is news when the stock market loses two points? This is a case of exclusion. Can we continue to stand by when food is thrown
away while people are starving? This is a case of inequality.
Today everything comes under the laws of competition and the survival of the fittest, where the powerful feed upon the powerless.
As a consequence, masses of people find themselves excluded and marginalized: without work, without possibilities, without
any means of escape.
Human beings are themselves considered consumer goods to be used and then discarded. We have created a "disposable" culture
which is now spreading.
It is no longer simply about exploitation and oppression, but something new. Exclusion ultimately has to do with what it means
to be a part of the society in which we live; those excluded are no longer society's underside or its fringes or its disenfranchised
– they are no longer even a part of it. The excluded are not the "exploited" but the outcast, the "leftovers".
54. In this context, some people continue to defend trickle-down theories which assume that economic growth, encouraged
by a free market, will inevitably succeed in bringing about greater justice and inclusiveness in the world.
This opinion, which has never been confirmed by the facts, expresses a crude and naïve trust in the goodness of those wielding
economic power and in the sacralized workings of the prevailing economic system.
Meanwhile, the excluded are still waiting. To sustain a lifestyle which excludes others, or to sustain enthusiasm for that
selfish ideal, a globalization of indifference has developed.
Almost without being aware of it, we end up being incapable of feeling compassion at the outcry of the poor, weeping for other
people's pain, and feeling a need to help them, as though all this were someone else's responsibility and not our own. The culture
of prosperity deadens us; we are thrilled if the market offers us something new to purchase; and in the meantime all those lives
stunted for lack of opportunity seem a mere spectacle; they fail to move us.
"... This is probably very similar to very cunning efforts for preventing alliance between Russia and Germany by British empire. In general the current USA policy toward Russia has British roots. ..."
"... And as for your utter naivety about respect, as Machiavelli pointed out, respect is not everything. Fear might be good substitute. And the US neocons understand this very well. ..."
"... As Michael Ledeen put it "Every ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business..." (Ledeen doctrine). ..."
Trump is making nice with Putin but he's picking fight with
Mexico on our border, China, and North Korea.
By making
nice with Putin and Russia PE Trump puts our long term
traditional Allies in Europe, especially those that border
Russian, on notice that they will not be protected by the USA
to the extent in the past which opens them up to Russian
political and business pressures/extortion as well as
weakening the ties that bind them to us.
Of course, all that rebalanced geopolitics means no nation
in future will trust the USA in the same way again in
politics, business, trade, or global security.
You may like Trump upsetting the apple cart that has been
carefully built by successive President's since WWII but I
doubt most Americans will or do.
You need to understand that splitting alliance of Russia and
China is probably strategically important for the USA
neoliberal elite then anything else.
In this sense Trump just want to end the blunders of Obama
foreign policy which made rapprochement of Russia and China
possible, or even inevitable. The problem is that after
Ukraine Russia does not trust the USA. On any level. Attitude
now is probably much worse then it was during years of Cold
War. Even bitter enemies of Putin now curse the Obama
administration using the last words.
In other words, what Obama did with his Ukrainian
adventure is eliminated any (as in zero) internal opposition
to Putin inside the country. Such a blowback, in CIA terms.
So much for Nobel Peace Price winner foreign policy
achievements (Iran "lifting sanctions" gambit is still
standing as one).
This is probably very similar to very cunning efforts for
preventing alliance between Russia and Germany by British
empire. In general the current USA policy toward Russia has
British roots.
Like French say: "you can't make an omelette without
breaking eggs" (on ne saurait faire d'omelette sans casser
des œufs )
So interests of some dwarf European states might be
sacrificed to pull Russia from alliance with China. Nothing
personal, just business.
And as for your utter naivety about respect, as
Machiavelli pointed out, respect is not everything. Fear
might be good substitute. And the US neocons understand this
very well.
As Michael Ledeen put it "Every ten years or so, the
United States needs to pick up some small crappy little
country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world
we mean business..." (Ledeen doctrine).
Russia
and China did not come together
during the cold war against the US
empire, big difference today is
the potential for trade
cooperation on a Beijing Moscow
Madrid (with a branch to Tehran)
axis.
That observation aside; a huge
enemy is good for the US' military
industry complex; businesses whose
minimum returns are over 6% and
assured by political influence.
There is money to be made
pushing the Bear and the Dragon
into a corner.
The Queen Empresses workers
were protecting all that exploited
labor in India. The Royal Navy and
coaling stations kept the sea
routes open
Putin Led a Complex Cyberattack Scheme to
Aid Trump, Report Finds
http://nyti.ms/2jbXCV1
NYT - MICHAEL D. SHEAR and DAVID E. SANGER - Jan 6
WASHINGTON - President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia
directed a vast cyberattack aimed at denying Hillary Clinton
the presidency and installing Donald J. Trump in the Oval
Office, the nation's top intelligence agencies said in an
extraordinary report they delivered on Friday to Mr. Trump.
The officials presented their unanimous conclusions to Mr.
Trump in a two-hour briefing at Trump Tower in New York that
brought the leaders of America's intelligence agencies face
to face with their most vocal skeptic, the president-elect,
who has repeatedly cast doubt on Russia's role. The meeting
came just two weeks before Mr. Trump's inauguration and was
underway even as the electoral votes from his victory were
being formally counted in a joint session of Congress.
Soon after leaving the meeting, intelligence officials
released the declassified, damning report that described the
sophisticated cybercampaign as part of a continuing Russian
effort to weaken the United States government and its
democratic institutions. The report - a virtually unheard-of,
real-time revelation by the American intelligence agencies
that undermined the legitimacy of the president who is about
to direct them - made the case that Mr. Trump was the favored
candidate of Mr. Putin.
The Russian leader, the report said, sought to denigrate
Mrs. Clinton, and the report detailed what the officials had
revealed to President Obama a day earlier: Mr. Trump's
victory followed a complicated, multipart cyberinformation
attack whose goal had evolved to help the Republican win.
The 25-page report did not conclude that Russian
involvement tipped the election to Mr. Trump.
The public report lacked the evidence that intelligence
officials said was included in a classified version, which
they described as information on the sources and methods used
to collect the information about Mr. Putin and his
associates. Those would include intercepts of conversations
and the harvesting of computer data from "implants" that the
United States and its allies have put in Russian computer
networks. ...
If elected, would Donald Trump be Vladimir Putin's man in
the White House? This should be a ludicrous, outrageous
question. After all, he must be a patriot - he even wears
hats promising to make America great again.
But we're talking about a ludicrous, outrageous candidate.
And the Trump campaign's recent behavior has quite a few
foreign policy experts wondering just what kind of hold Mr.
Putin has over the Republican nominee, and whether that
influence will continue if he wins.
I'm not talking about merely admiring Mr. Putin's
performance - being impressed by the de facto dictator's
"strength," and wanting to emulate his actions. I am,
instead, talking about indications that Mr. Trump would, in
office, actually follow a pro-Putin foreign policy, at the
expense of America's allies and her own self-interest.
That's not to deny that Mr. Trump does, indeed, admire Mr.
Putin. On the contrary, he has repeatedly praised the Russian
strongman, often in extravagant terms. For example, when Mr.
Putin published an article attacking American exceptionalism,
Mr. Trump called it a "masterpiece."
But admiration for Putinism isn't unusual in Mr. Trump's
party. Well before the Trump candidacy, Putin envy on the
right was already widespread.
For one thing, Mr. Putin is someone who doesn't worry
about little things like international law when he decides to
invade a country. He's "what you call a leader," declared
Rudy Giuliani after Russia invaded Ukraine. ...
Slate: Trump's devotion to the Russian president has been
portrayed as buffoonish enthusiasm for a fellow macho
strongman. But Trump's statements of praise amount to
something closer to slavish devotion. In 2007, he praised
Putin for "rebuilding Russia." A year later he added, "He
does his work well. Much better than our Bush." When Putin
ripped American exceptionalism in a New York Times op-ed in
2013, Trump called it "a masterpiece."
What Putin Has to Say to Americans
About Syria
http://nyti.ms/1eFFMCQ
NYT - VLADIMIR V. PUTIN - SEPT. 11, 2013
Donald J. Trump✔ @realDonaldTrump
Putin's letter is a masterpiece for Russia and a disaster for
the U.S. He is lecturing to our President.Never has our
Country looked to weak
You may have been right in thinking that
the need to seem hawkish when chasing the
presidency is no longer essential, at least
with regard to Russia.
Now I have secretly believed all
along that
US and them have been 2 sides of the same coin,
brash, arrogant, yada yada. Perhaps we can do
some bizness together, yes?
Maybe they could use a half-decent missile
defense system, priced to sell.
I don't think that you will ever find that a broad consensus
emerge that an elected candidate is legitimate.
Bill Clinton was attacked from day one and considered
illegitimate by the right because their (two) candidates had
gotten more votes.
Bush II was considered illegitimate by the left because he
was appointed by a right wing supreme court that refused to
wait and actually count the votes in Florida.
Obama was considered illegitimate by the right because of
birth certificates (yes sometimes they just make up shtuff to
allow themselves to believe) - and later because he used and
expanded the executive powers Bush had pushed at the end.
Ultimately a substantial number of people from the
opposite side of the political spectrum will question the
legitimacy of the elected president, whether there are
legitimate questions or not. The consequences for America is
what we have lived with since 1992; a super-charged
partisanship that is getting worse not better.
Obama - 2008:
52.9% of the popular vote, 365 electoral votes
whereas McCain got 45.7% & 173 ev; 58.2% turnout
Bush Sr - 1988:
53.4% & 426 ev vs. Dukakis with 45.6% & 111 ev;
50.2% turnout
Reagan, 2nd term - 1984:
58.8% & 525 ev vs 40.6% & 13 ev for Mondale; 53.3% turnout
Trump - 2016:
46% of the popular vote, 304 electoral votes
vs 48% & 227 ev for Clinton; 55.3% turnout.
All were 'legitimate' - putative Russian influence
aside, arguably. 'Mandates' can be asserted
only for the first three, IMO. Possibly excepting
Bush, due to low turnout.
Winning the electoral vote while losing the
popular vote makes this one a 'squeaker'.
Russians
Ridicule US Charge That Kremlin
Meddled to Help Trump
http://nyti.ms/2i4mL60
NYT - ANDREW HIGGINS - January 7, 2017
... Margarita Simonyan, the editor in chief of RT, a
state-funded television network that broadcasts in English,
who is cited repeatedly in the report, posted her own message
on Twitter scoffing at the American intelligence community's
accusations.
"Aaa, the CIA report is out! Laughter of the year! Intro
to my show from 6 years ago is the main evidence of Russia's
influence at US elections. This is not a joke!" she wrote.
Even Russians who have been critical of their government
voiced dismay at the United States intelligence agencies'
account of an elaborate Russian conspiracy unsupported by
solid evidence. ...
EMichael -> Fred C. Dobbs...
, -1
Yeah, I'll believe anything that appears in the Russian
press.
"Sitting next to Putin was RT's 36-year-old
editor-in-chief, Margarita Simonyan, a raven-haired former
state television reporter who took over RT when she was 25.
She is a feisty defender of her network, often lashing out
against critics-and there are many-who say RT is little more
than a weapon in a Russian information war against the West.
Secretary of State John Kerry calls the network a "propaganda
bullhorn" for Putin; it has been a subject at House and
Senate foreign affairs hearings; and, in mid-March, two U.S.
senators introduced the Countering Information Warfare Act,
which is aimed in part at the network. Simonyan almost seems
to enjoy battling RT's legions of critics. When a BuzzFeed
reporter asked her in 2014 about alleged Kremlin influence,
Simonyan unleashed a mocking reply. "[W]e just read the
latest Kremlin press releases on camera. It is much more
efficient that way," she wrote on RT's website, adding
sardonically that the network "unleash[es] the KGB on anyone
who dares to leave." And yet, Simonyan does in fact keep a
yellow telephone with no dial pad on her desk, which Simonyan
conceded to a Time reporter last year is a secure line to the
Kremlin.
In his remarks at the dinner, Putin showed obvious pride
in the network, saying its efforts reminded him of the way
hardworking Russian sailors tear the shirts off their backs.
He most decidedly wasn't mentioning that hotline to the
Kremlin on Simonyan's desk or Kerry's scathing dismissal of
his "bullhorn." Far from it. "Your greatest strength is
presenting information freely and independently," Putin told
the crowd, who sipped wine in translucent chairs around
white-clothed tables. "We do not control you. and we do not
meddle," Putin said. He also boasted that RT has a reach of
700 million viewers, though he conceded they had no idea how
many people actually watch; U.S. officials say the American
viewership is much lower than RT's estimate of 8 million per
week on cable systems like Comcast, Time Warner and Dish
Network. (They are also skeptical of RT's claim to have a
budget of only $250 million worldwide. In March, Republican
Senator Rob Portman cited reports saying the cost of the
network's Washington bureau alone could be $400 million,
though RT adamantly denies that, and the original source of
the report is unclear.)
Putin did hint at RT's role in the political war Russia
finds itself waging with the West, referring to the
"complicated" state of global politics and "distortions of
events," including in Ukraine and Syria, and saying that RT
can describe "the true events" to a growing global audience
yearning for unbiased facts.
But Putin's comments are at odds with how the network
operates in practice, according to interviews with people who
closely watch or have worked at RT, and my own hours of
monitoring the network and its website. One former RT staffer
in Washington told me that she left her job, along with
others who have also spoken to the media, after seeing the
network's Moscow-based editors instruct journalists to make
their coverage hew to the Moscow-approved political line.
Such concerns erupted into full view a couple years ago when
Russia marched into neighboring Ukraine to annex the Crimean
Peninsula, leading a 28-year-old RT presenter named Liz Wahl
to quit on-air, declaring, "I cannot be a part of a network
funded by the Russian government that whitewashes the actions
of Putin."
Just under the surface is a bought-and-paid-for propaganda
vehicle trying to nudge viewers toward Russia's side of the
story at a time when Moscow has increasingly become an
international pariah.
Today, it's clear RT operates less as the free and
independent news source Putin touted, and more as a vehicle
that increasingly uses the available tools of the digital
revolution-from viral videos ("Animated Genitals," "Lawnmower
Explodes") to entertainingly snarky tweets-to promote
Russia's message. It's positioning itself as a scrappy
dissenter to the old Western media's monopoly on information,
a theme Simonyan emphasized to me in a statement for this
story. Americans, she said, watch RT for "stories, views and
analysis they won't find in the mainstream media." As for
criticism of RT's coverage of the United States and the 2016
campaign, she sounded a positively Trumpian theme, saying
RT's critics are "mostly members of the U.S. political
establishment, who are uncomfortable with losing the longtime
monopoly on information."
"... The Intercept has been very good on this whole Russian hacking issue. They are not denying the claims of the intelligence agencies (in fact, their opinion is that they are probably right). But they keep pointing out that the agencies' unclassified reports keep reaching the same conclusions but provide flimsy or no evidence. ..."
"... Their attack on the Post on the PropOrNot misinformation is similar. They argue that many papers and journalists echo someone's opinion without any corroborating facts. As they point out, this is particularly insidious when the perpetrator is a widely quoted source like the Post; soon, the misinformation becomes a "fact" that "everyone knows". Retractions are usually late, small, and cannot undo the damage. ..."
The Intercept has been very good on this whole Russian
hacking issue. They are not denying the claims of the
intelligence agencies (in fact, their opinion is that they
are probably right). But they keep pointing out that the
agencies' unclassified reports keep reaching the same
conclusions but provide flimsy or no evidence.
So, the
public is being asked to take the agencies on faith. The
Intercept says that given the agencies' record, journalists
should at least point this out, and not treat these
allegations as settled fact.
Their attack on the Post on the PropOrNot
misinformation is similar. They argue that many papers and
journalists echo someone's opinion without any corroborating
facts. As they point out, this is particularly insidious when
the perpetrator is a widely quoted source like the Post;
soon, the misinformation becomes a "fact" that "everyone
knows". Retractions are usually late, small, and cannot undo
the damage.
I do not disagree with this at all. We both realize there is
a limit to the info that can be released, but that should not
make us comfortable at this point.
I will point out two
things.
First, the FBI is on line with the consensus. Comey's
actions from this summer, when he went way off the
reservation to scold Clinton, to the clusterf!ck before the
election ( I believe that is a clear violation of the Hatch
Act) shows clearly that the FBI was no impartial.
Second, the "agencies' record" that is oft mentioned,
seems to place the blame on the Iraq war on those agencies.
As I remember (and I fought against people thinking bush's
actions were justified back then), there was no such
consensus among the intelligence community on the existence
of WMDs. Rather, there was strong doubts in some of the
groups.
None of that means this consensus is correct, but it does
seem to be totally agreed to by all of the community.
This attack on the Intel community itself, with absolutely
no contra info from outside the community (which certainly
existed regarding WMD info before Iraq) reminds me of people
laying blame on Clinton for invading Iraq. That was not her
call, but somehow she bears the blame with some people.
Most importantly, this is not about who the POTUS will be.
That is a fact. ANd I have seen no calls at all to cancel the
results of the election(nor should there be).
At the same time, this issue needs to be investigated
thoroughly, and if the allegations are true, Russia needs to
be punished for their actions.(oh, and I am not talking about
military actions).
If true, Putin should be sanctioned for another ten
years(or until he leaves) and we should take actions against
those who do not take actions against him. I mean, it is not
like there is not prior offenses by him in this area. He is a
threat to the stability of countries in eastern europe, the
middle east, europe, and now the US.
Shorter: lined up your fallacies to support what? Regime
change, war in Europe, nuclear holocaust....
longer:
Blood on Putin's hands! He is a pacifist compared to
Obama, even considering his military spends less than 7% what
the US wastes to kill people all over the world.
It is only in the past 8 years that the neocon, faux
democrat, neolibs have used NATO to threaten regime change on
Russia.
Poland and Hungary "joined" NATO when?*
All the blood on Obama's hands with the instigation of the
neocon Clinton's gang! Who is evil, certainly not the
exceptional Obama, the fascists in Ukraine nor the [neocons
of the] CIA trained jihadi proxies.
Putin rich, same as the Clintons rising from taking White
House flat wear in 2001. Besides CIA says Putin is a dot com
genius running hacks and all.......
*1997 Poland, Czech Republic and Hungary, 1999 was the
Baltic states and several other "eastern" nations, the last
"enlargement" #6 Albania [got their county of Kosovo from
NATO in 1997] and Croatia was 2009.
We can see why the left wanted Clinton elected. A Clinton
presidency could lead to their desired war with Russia
(Putin). The left is inflamed that Trump won't act so quick
on such war-mongering, although there is other war-mongering
he will likely engage in (Middle East).
If we are going to
engage in regime change could we at least pick a dictator
that is economically starving their population (Maduro)?
Three, Four... Many Secular Stagnations!
by Brad DeLong
January 07, 2017 at 05:25 AM
...
C. Seeking Not a Cure But Palliatives: For Summers, secular stagnation does not have one
simple cause but is the concatenation of a number of different structural shocks un- or
only loosely-connected with each other in their origin that have reinforced each other in
their effects pushing the short-term safe nominal Wicksellian "neutral" rate down below
zero. But even though there is no one root cause, there are two effective palliatives to
neutralize or moderate the effects.
Thus Summers calls for two major policy initiatives:
1. Larger and much more aggressive progressive tax and transfer (and predistribution?)
policies to end the Second Gilded Age.
2. A major shift to an investment-centered expansionary fiscal policy as the major
component of what somebody or other once called "a somewhat comprehensive socialisation of
investment [as] the only means of securing an approximation to full employment not
exclud[ing] all manner of compromises and of devices by which public authority will
cooperate with private initiative "
I think he has a very, very strong case here.
..."
Be more like Denmark.
Although technocratic, these are more socialist than progressive neoliberal solutions.
Progressive neoliberalism with its emphasis on private sector "solutions" helped to bring
about our so-called secular stagnation.
Why didn't Summers back
Bernie Sanders over Clinton?
Peter K. ->
Peter K....
, -1
Krugman in today's links:
"Now deficits are fine at precisely the moment when the economy seems to be fairly close to
full employment, the Federal Reserve is starting to hike rates, and the case for fiscal
expansion, while not completely absent, is fairly subtle, resting mainly on the
precautionary motive. "
It seems the lightning speed spread of contingent labor in
the 2010s should be evidence of this. Contingent labor as
in being "on call" for positions such as retail clerk. A
person who must be available for uncertain hours loses the
opportunity to find a second job. The employer demanding
contingent labor is essentially demanding uncompensated
work hours.
In any event, the practice seems to have become near
universal by a couple years ago, suggesting a level of
employer market power far in excess of what one would
think by looking at numbers like the official unemployment
rate. It may also suggest that labor market monopsony may
exist at quite small employer size.
What you describe is in general not due to monopsony.
There is still a substantial number of independent retail
and other companies that are not (explicitly) coordinating
their actions and job function designs.
It is just
regular supply and demand dynamics, in combination with
social feedback (actors observing what "peers" are getting
away with and trying the same, and after a while it works
its ways into a new normal).
In corporate lingo it is known as "best practices" -
don't innovate process, just copy what has worked
elsewhere.
retail and other companies that are not (explicitly)
coordinating
"
Although they have an app for coordinating plus
incentive to coordinate, they fully understand that by the
time they begin coordinating the game is over. The game
for brick and mortar retail is now hanging by a tread.
16% of retail is now intertube orders being shipped out
by USPS, Fedex, Amazon airship drone & UPS. For the next 2
years the 16% will double each year then slowly expand
toward the 99% asymptote. Sure!
When you ski at Aspen you will see old-time-y shops for
retail, shops that only the wealthy will use for more than
window-shop. Plenty time for best practices but
cm,
"companies that are not (explicitly) coordinating their
actions and job function designs."
That happens by
default.
Wall-Mart dominates retail (5K stores I think out of
over 11,593 stores and clubs in 28 countries) and it is a
very cruel company. Other companies copy Wall-Mart
practices.
They have no "social conscience" at all and try to
drive their labor as hard as possible paying as little as
possible. In other words, they can be viewed as a
corporate psychopath.
"The MSM is building a case to do Putin like the one
to do Assad."
I am not sure about that. I think this anti-Russian
hysteria is mainly for internal consumption and designed to
put a smoke screen of the problem of the US neoliberal
society and increase the cohesion of population, which
essentially rejected neoliberal elite during the recent
elections.
The bout of McCarthyism that we observe now might also be
an attempt to de-legitimize Trump presidency and to tie his
hands. This Machiavellian trick with expulsion of diplomats
that Nobel Peace Price winner played with Russians recently
suggests the latter. Deep state that controls the US foreign
policy feels the threat and reacts accordingly.
Too many people in Washington are "national security
parasites" and are dependent of continuation of wars for the
expansion of the US led global neoliberal empire.
Trump promised to drain the swamp, but he probably
underestimated the level of resistance he will encounter.
Just look at hissy fits that WaPo and NYT is still engaged
it. They really behave like Putin agent ascending into
position of POTUS :-). The same is true of some commenters
here.
They feel threatened by the rejection of their ideology
and are ready to do purges in best Trotskyites tradition. As
I mentioned before they are really "Latter Date Trotskyites"
in most of their ideological postulates.
- Use of violence for the spread of the ideology. A
totalitarian vision for a world-encompassing monolithic
global state (US led neoliberal empire) governed by an
ideologically charged "vanguard".
- Creation and maintenance of the illusion of "immanent
threat" from powerful enemies for brainwashing the population
(National Security State instead of "Dictatorship of
proletariat").
- Purges of dissent via neo-McCarthyism tactics.
- The mantle of inevitability (famous TINA statement of
Margaret Thatcher)
- The study of neoclassical economics as the key method of
indoctrination of people with economists as a class of well
paid priests of neoliberal ideology.
- War on, and brutal suppression of organized labor. While
in Soviet Russia organized labor was emasculated and trade
unions became part of government apparatus, under
neoliberalism they are simply decimated. It "atomize"
individual workers presenting them as goods on the "labor
market" controlled by large corporations ( via the myth of
human capital ). Economic fetishism. Neoliberals see the
market as a semi-sacred element of human civilization. They
want to create global labor market that favors transnational
corporations. The idea of "employability" is
characteristically neoliberal. It means that neoliberals see
it as a moral duty of human beings, to arrange their lives to
maximize their value on the labor market. Paying for plastic
surgery to improve employability (almost entirely by women)
is a typical neoliberal phenomenon -- one that would surprise
Adam Smith.
- The pseudoscientific (or quasi-religious) myth of
"free-market" (why not "fair"?). with neoclassical economy
instead of "Marxist political economy" which provides a
pseudo-scientific justification for the greed and poverty
endemic to the system. Set of powerful myths, which like in
Marxism create a "secular religion". Such as on "Free Trade",
"Invisible Hand Hypothesis", "Rational expectations" scam,
"Shareholder value" scam, etc. Fake promises of prosperity,
which are not unlike the rhetoric of the Communist Party of
the USSR about "proletariat" as the ruling class to which all
benefits belongs.
- Scapegoating and victimization of poor as new
Untermensch. This is a part of Randism and is closely related
to glorification of the "creative class".
- Rejection of the normal interpretation of the rule of
the law and the idea of "neoliberal justice" (tough justice
for Untermensch only).
- Cult of GDP. Like Marxism, neoliberalism on the one hand
this reduces individuals to statistics contained within
aggregate economic performance. It professes that GDP growth
is the ultimate goal of any society. This is very similar to
the USSR cult of gross national product.
The service is an example of propaganda using "deductive
reasoning"; a journalist interviewing lots of propagandists
and using their spin to support an hypothesis that is Clinton
Mrs Kagan/Nuland neocon bat crazy!
The fake image is what the neocons want us to believe
about the dire threat from Putin!
At least once a year Barry posts the cheat sheet, then he
sets out hundreds of examples in his reads.
Fred C. Dobbs :
As observed, Dems don't like deficits
when GOPsters do them, and the GOP doesn't like them unless they do them.
PK: 'And meanwhile I
and other Keynesians are getting mail accusing us of being the hypocrites: "You were for deficits
when Obama was in, now they're bad!"
But as I just said, the situation has changed.' ...
As even I have noted, deficits are *useful* when employment is down and infrastructure needs building.
We haven't done enough of that lately, for sure.
It may not be overwhelming in its effect, but he did DO something, and had an effect, made
an example.
Gee, what a terrible thing to do.
What the Wall Street Dems have done is feel the average worker's pain, hand out some questionably
progressive programs like the Heritage Foundation's ACA, and explain why it was all necessary
in the name of free trade and globalization.
>" Remember when the "Wall Street
Dems" saved the ENTIRE US-branded auto manufacturing industry?"
Did not they save their friends
investment portfolios (and some saved their own). Collapse of auto sector means plunge of S&P500,
because of interconnection with other sectors. the lowest point of S&P 500 during this period
was around 670. I think they have no other options.
"... On Thursday, at a rough estimate, 75,000 Americans were laid off or fired by their employers. Some of those workers will find good new jobs, but many will end up earning less, and some will remain unemployed for months or years. ..."
"... In an average month, there are 1.5 million "involuntary" job separations (as opposed to voluntary quits), or 75,000 per working day. ..."
"... Krugman refuses to admit the possibility that Trump may actually have shifted the cost-benefit of moving jobs abroad. Now corporations will have to weigh the cost of being condemned in the court of public opinion for moving jobs abroad...negative publicity that they can ill afford. ..."
The Age of Fake Policy, by Paul Krugman, NY Times
:
On
Thursday, at a rough estimate, 75,000 Americans were laid off or
fired by their employers. Some of those workers will find good new
jobs, but many will end up earning less, and some will remain
unemployed for months or years.
If that sounds terrible to you..., I'm just assuming that Thursday
was a normal day in the job market. ...
In an average month,
there are
1.5 million "involuntary" job separations
(as opposed to
voluntary quits), or 75,000 per working day.
Hence my number.
...
assuming that Thursday was a normal day in the job market.
... In an average month, there are 1.5 million
"involuntary" job separations (as opposed to voluntary
quits), or 75,000 per
"
Bless your fat bones pK!
At last you have saved the day!
Tell me something! How many of the 75,000 were fired
because their employer figured he could stay in business
longer if he didn't have to raise their wages by virtue of
the *minimum wage regulation*?
How many of such lost jobs could have been saved had
our governmental gals and guys opted for maximum wage
regulation instead? For example a maximum wage regulation
that would have cut your fat salary in half to reduce the
inequality in this fair city? A maximum wage regulation
would require less overhead in light of the fewer wage
earners at the top of the heap but generate more of wage
dispersion since there is more fat to cut at the apex of
the pyramid than fat to gain at entry level salaries.
Can't you just see it now? pK and his wealthy
colleagues staging a violent demonstration? An objection
from the mob? pK heaving industrial strength cherry bombs
at innocent constables?
Just in case you are an honest broker and just not
actually aware of the policy preference differences
between Republicans and Democrats (and between someone
like Kudlow and someone like Krugman) - one of these key
policy difference is that Democrats have a policy platform
to raise, rather than lower, the top marginal rate (the
amount of money that triggers the highest tax rate on all
dollars earned after reaching that point). A higher
marginal rate, usually any rate that exceeds 70%, is in
practice a maximum wage.
Also - the minimum wage is really low in historic
value. It isn't likely to be what causes job loss.
JohnH :
, -1
Krugman refuses to admit the possibility that Trump
may actually have shifted the cost-benefit of moving jobs
abroad. Now corporations will have to weigh the cost of
being condemned in the court of public opinion for moving
jobs abroad...negative publicity that they can ill afford.
By contrast, Obama had eight years to use the bully
pulpit...but could never figure out what it was...
Now if Krugman and Democrats only had a plan for saving
jobs. Sadly, they can muster nothing more than a 'just
suck it up,' because the jobs are gone for good...
ilsm -> JohnH...
, -1
jumped shark, a lot of folks took a few days off from
embarrassing themselves after the crooked neocon was
beaten.
Where is Democrats' War on Climate Change? Where is
Krugman's?
[Of course, pgl, the 'progressive liberal' mocks job
creation potential of solar power...just like Trump.]
Instead of bashing Trump 24/7, Democrats and Krugman
would be better served promoting a green, high employment
future.
anne -> pgl...
, -1
Important point.
Knowing how large infrastructure
spending will be relative to the size of an economy is
important. Chinese planners will be spending $860 billion
between 2017 and 2020 on alternative energy and high-speed
rail projects or $360 and $500 billion respectively.
The $860 billion comes to $215 billion yearly or 2.6%
of current Gross Domestic Product taken in simple dollar
terms.
"... High level of inequality as the explicit, desirable goal (which raises the productivity). ..."
"... "Neoliberal rationality" when everything is a commodity that should be traded at specific market. ..."
"... Extreme financialization or converting the economy into "casino capitalism" ..."
"... The idea of the global, USA dominated neoliberal empire and related "Permanent war for permanent peace" ..."
"... Downgrading ordinary people to the role of commodity and creating three classes of citizens (moochers, or Untermensch, "creative class" and top 0.1%), with the upper class (0.1% or "Masters of the Universe") being above the law ..."
"... "Downsizing" sovereignty of nations via international treaties like TPP, and making transnational corporations the key political players, "the deciders" ..."
"... US Trotskyites gravitated mostly to neoconservatism, not "pure" neoliberalism. They were definitely contributors and players at later stage, but Monte Peregrine society was instrumental in creation of the initial version of the neoliberal ideology. And only later it became clear that neoconservatism is "neoliberalism with the gun". ..."
"... I think that after "iron law of oligarchy" was discovered, it became clear that the idea of proletariat as a new "progressive" class that destined to become the leading force in the society was a utopia. ..."
"... But if you replace "proletariat" with the "creative class" then Trotskyism ideology makes a lot of sense, as a "muscular" interpretation of neoliberalism. Instead of "proletarians of all countries unite" we have "neoliberal elites of all countries unite". Instead of permanent revolution we have permanent "democratization" via color revolutions with the same key idea. In this case creating a global neoliberal empire that will make everybody happy and prosperous. So it makes perfect sense to bring neoliberal flavor democracy on the tips of bayonets to those backward nations that resist the inevitable. ..."
"... From this point of view neoliberalism is yet another stunning "economico-political" utopia that competes as for the level of economic determinism with classic Marxism... ..."
"... Consider Christopher Hitchens: the former Trotskyist wrote, following his 2002 resignation as a Nation columnist, that by not embracing things like the Iraq War, "The Nation joined the amoral side . I say that they stand for neutralism where no such thing is possible or desirable, and I say the hell with it." ..."
It has recently become commonplace to argue that globalization can leave people behind,
and that this can have severe political consequences. Since 23 June, this has even become conventional
wisdom. While I welcome this belated acceptance of the blindingly obvious, I can't but help
feeling a little frustrated, since this has been self-evident for many years now. What we are
seeing, in part, is what happens to conventional wisdom when, all of a sudden, it finds that
it can no longer dismiss as irrelevant something that had been staring it in the face for a
long time.
This is not about "conventional wisdom". This is about the power of neoliberal propaganda,
the power of brainwashing and indoctrination of population via MSM, schools and universities.
And "all of a sudden, it finds that it can no longer dismiss as irrelevant something that had
been staring it in the face for a long time." also has nothing to do with conventional wisdom.
This is about the crisis of neoliberal ideology and especially Trotskyism part of it (neoliberalism
can be viewed as Trotskyism for the rich). The following integral elements of this ideology no
longer work well and are starting to course the backlash:
High level of inequality as the explicit, desirable goal (which raises the productivity).
"Greed is good" or "Trickle down economics" -- redistribution of wealth up will create (via
higher productivity) enough scrapes for the lower classes, lifting all boats.
"Neoliberal rationality" when everything is a commodity that should be traded at specific
market.Human beings also are viewed as market actors with every field of activity
seen as a specialized market. Every entity (public or private, person, business, state) should
be governed as a firm. "Neoliberalism construes even non-wealth generating spheres-such as
learning, dating, or exercising-in market terms, submits them to market metrics, and governs
them with market techniques and practices." People are just " human capital" who must constantly
tend to their own present and future market value.
Extreme financialization or converting the economy into "casino capitalism" (under
neoliberalism everything is a marketable good, that is traded on explicit or implicit exchanges.
The idea of the global, USA dominated neoliberal empire and related "Permanent war
for permanent peace" -- wars for enlarging global neoliberal empire via crushing non-compliant
regimes either via color revolutions or via open military intervention.
Downgrading ordinary people to the role of commodity and creating three classes of
citizens (moochers, or Untermensch, "creative class" and top 0.1%), with the upper class (0.1%
or "Masters of the Universe") being above the law like the top level of "nomenklatura"
was in the USSR.
"Downsizing" sovereignty of nations via international treaties like TPP, and making
transnational corporations the key political players, "the deciders" as W aptly said.
Who decide about level of immigration flows, minimal wages, tariffs, and other matters that
previously were prerogative of the state.
So after 36 (or more) years of dominance (which started with triumphal march of neoliberalism
in early 90th) the ideology entered "zombie state". That does not make it less dangerous but its
power over minds of the population started to evaporate. Far right ideologies now are filling
the vacuum, as with the discreditation of socialist ideology and decimation of "enlightened corporatism"
of the New Deal in the USA there is no other viable alternatives.
The same happened in late 1960th with the Communist ideology. It took 20 years for the USSR
to crash after that with the resulting splash of nationalism (which was the force that blow up
the USSR) and far right ideologies.
It remains to be seen whether the neoliberal US elite will fare better then Soviet nomenklatura
as challenges facing the USA are now far greater then challenges which the USSR faced at the time.
Among them is oil depletion which might be the final nail into the coffin of neoliberalism and,
specifically, the neoliberal globalization.
This is a difficult question. They did not spawned neoliberalism and for some time neoconservatism
existed as a separate ideology.
US Trotskyites gravitated mostly to neoconservatism, not "pure" neoliberalism. They were
definitely contributors and players at later stage, but Monte Peregrine society was instrumental
in creation of the initial version of the neoliberal ideology. And only later it became clear
that neoconservatism is "neoliberalism with the gun".
I think that after "iron law of oligarchy" was discovered, it became clear that the idea
of proletariat as a new "progressive" class that destined to become the leading force in the society
was a utopia.
But if you replace "proletariat" with the "creative class" then Trotskyism ideology makes
a lot of sense, as a "muscular" interpretation of neoliberalism. Instead of "proletarians of all
countries unite" we have "neoliberal elites of all countries unite". Instead of permanent revolution
we have permanent "democratization" via color revolutions with the same key idea. In this case
creating a global neoliberal empire that will make everybody happy and prosperous. So it makes
perfect sense to bring neoliberal flavor democracy on the tips of bayonets to those backward nations
that resist the inevitable.
From this point of view neoliberalism is yet another stunning "economico-political" utopia
that competes as for the level of economic determinism with classic Marxism...
Also this process started long ago and lasted more then 50 years. The first who did this
jump was probably James Burnham. The latest was probably Christopher Hitchens.
https://www.thenation.com/article/going-all-way/
Consider Christopher Hitchens: the former Trotskyist wrote, following his 2002 resignation
as a Nation columnist, that by not embracing things like the Iraq War, "The Nation joined the
amoral side . I say that they stand for neutralism where no such thing is possible or desirable,
and I say the hell with it."
It is the turncoat's greatest gift to his new hosts: the affirmation that the world exists
only in black and white.
Lord -> likbez... ,
Boudreaux assures us it would be unethical and uneconomical to do otherwise, by those with the
gold anyway.
Interesting factoid: that's about what the US now projects to
spend on renewables in that time frame, with about the same
GDP.
Libezkova -> sanjait...
, -1
In order to start spending on renewables we need higher gas
prices and, probably, higher electricity prices too. This is
a recipe for the recession.
God, we fall back even in hybrids with the crush of gas
prices.
East-West high voltage lines are needed to balance the
generation and they are very expensive.
Balancing solar/wing "rapid fire" gas generation electro
stations are very expensive too.
So IMHO without a severe cut in military budget (and
abandoning the idea of building a global neoliberal empire
led by the USA) this all wishful thinking.
You are too quick to judge. Trump will become POTUS only on
20th.
But Obama already proved "beyond reasonable doubt" that he
is "change we can believe in" bait and switch Maestro. That's
his legacy and he can't change it.
What a horrible, brazen betrayer of his voters he proved
to be. 100% neoliberal "wolf in sheep's clothing" ...
Pretty bright student of Bill Clinton. The same "they have
nowhere to go" attitude to working people and lower middle
class.
But in reality they have a place to go: they went to far
right nationalistic movements.
In this sense Bill Clinton and Barack Obama are godfathers
of the US far right renaissance. Barack actually did the same
trick in Ukraine, so this is his double "success". And the
major legacy.
But wait till 2020 and the situation might become very
interesting indeed. Especially if there will be no revival of
economics that Trump promised.
Oh my. Really? IF you actually believe this to be true then
you are to stupid to breath and should consider moving into
some sort of assisted living community and living out your
days whacked out on Thorazine.
The value
of this blog is that different points of view are
represented.
Some people here are neoliberals and Hillary supporters,
some like myself "New Dealers" and Trump supporters.
Some are Sanders supporters, some to the left of political
consensus, some to the right.
Are you closet Trotskyite (and neoliberals, in general,
are sometimes called "Latter Day Trotskyites" ;-) and want
only one point of view to be represented here ?
BTW a lot of US neocons were former Trotskyites, nothing
new or really surprising here. But to make your point more
clear, I would recommend you change your nick from Kurt to
Leon.
pgl -> Libezkova...
, -1
"Trump will become POTUS only on 20th."
I see. You think
that in a couple of weeks Trump will take off that ugly mask
with orange hair and we will see the he is Hillary. Otherwise
- you're an idiot.
"... What the Wall Street Dems have done is feel the average worker's pain, hand out some questionably progressive programs like the Heritage Foundation's ACA, and explain why it was all necessary in the name of free trade and globalization. ..."
"... And the rubes like it. What a bunch of dopes. ..."
Jesse :
It may not be overwhelming in its effect, but he did DO something, and had an effect, made an example.
Gee, what a terrible thing to do.
What the Wall Street Dems have done is feel the average worker's
pain, hand out some questionably progressive programs like the Heritage Foundation's ACA, and explain
why it was all necessary in the name of free trade and globalization.
That's right - Trump is Putin's
poodle aka Comrade Donald.
Libezkova ->
pgl...
, -1
Why you don't just buy m16, some
ammunition and go to Syria to prove your point and take revenge for Hillary fiasco.
Chickenhawks like you should better be careful what they wish for. With the election of
Hillary we would be on the brink of not "cold", but "hot" war, starting in Syria. But chickenhawks
like you prefer other people to die to their imperial complex of inferiority.
In other words, all you funny "Putin Poodle", "Putin is a kleptocrat", etc noises is just
a testament of the inferiority complex of a typical neoliberal chickenhawk. Much like was the
case with Hillary.
"... Not quite, they belong to different flavors of neoliberalism. As a politician Clinton was a "soft neoliberal", or "Third way"
neoliberal. Not quite the same as Reagan who was closer to "hard neoliberalism", or Thatcherism -- "in your face" neoliberalism. They
do not hide their principles and attitudes. ..."
"... Wikipedia: "Thatcherism represented a systematic, decisive rejection and reversal of the post-war consensus, whereby the major
political parties largely agreed on the central themes of Keynesianism, the welfare state, nationalised industry, and close regulation
of the economy" ..."
"... Clinton (like later Tony Blair) basically accepted the central postulates of neoliberalism such as globalization, deregulation,
privatization, maintaining a flexible labor market by high unemployment, marginalizing the trade unions, but made his intentions hidden
under the smoke screen ("I feel you pain"). Essentially he created the second major flavor of neoliberalism "soft neoliberalism", or
neoliberal "wolf in sheep's clothing". ..."
that's true statement. He is. With penchant for mathiness and globalization. Although like any talented person sometimes he
transcends this limitation and writes really good articles.
"Clinton a Reagan copy?"
Not quite, they belong to different flavors of neoliberalism. As a politician Clinton was a "soft neoliberal", or "Third
way" neoliberal. Not quite the same as Reagan who was closer to "hard neoliberalism", or Thatcherism -- "in your face" neoliberalism.
They do not hide their principles and attitudes.
Wikipedia: "Thatcherism represented a systematic, decisive rejection and reversal of the post-war consensus, whereby the
major political parties largely agreed on the central themes of Keynesianism, the welfare state, nationalised industry, and close
regulation of the economy"
Clinton (like later Tony Blair) basically accepted the central postulates of neoliberalism such as globalization, deregulation,
privatization, maintaining a flexible labor market by high unemployment, marginalizing the trade unions, but made his intentions
hidden under the smoke screen ("I feel you pain"). Essentially he created the second major flavor of neoliberalism "soft neoliberalism",
or neoliberal "wolf in sheep's clothing".
The Facts Have A Well-Known Center-Left Bias
by Krugman
MAY 9, 2016 8:01 AM
Yesterday I tweeted a response to Donald Trump's claim that America is the highest-taxed nation in the world. Actually,
he's been busted on that claim repeatedly, which makes it even more shameful that TV interviewers just let it slide. But I'm
also interested in the responses I've been getting, which I think tell you something about the broader situation – maybe call
it the politics of epistemology.
As you might guess, I'm getting a lot of denial, with quite a few people "explaining" that the international comparisons
don't include state and local government. Um, guys, maybe you shouldn't make confident pronouncements about stuff you've never
looked at.
And I do wonder about right-wingers weighing in here. After all, isn't it a (false) right-wing trope that the economic troubles
of European nations are caused by their excessive welfare states? Doesn't that suggest that they have bigger government and
higher taxes than we do? Oh, never mind.
But I'm also hearing from Berniebros, insisting that anything I say must be wrong, because I criticized their hero. And
this suggests to me that we may need a clarification of the doctrine that facts have a well-known liberal bias. More specifically,
they seem to have a center-left bias: conservatives are big on empirical denial, but so is some of the U.S. left.
This has become especially obvious in the waning days of the Democratic primary: you can watch data journalists like the
two Nates (Cohn and Silver) growing increasingly exasperated with Sanders supporters who keep insisting that Hillary is stealing
the nomination with superdelegates, when it's actually the Sanders campaign talking about getting supers to overturn the pledged
delegate count and the popular vote.
Of course, campaigns can't be held responsible for everything their supporters say, although it's a bit worse when some
of those supporters are actual campaign surrogates. Still, we can ask whether Sanders himself is inclined to dismiss inconvenient
facts. Well, as you know, I think the answer is yes, on issues ranging from economic projections to the sources of Clinton
primary victories.
I was therefore primed to notice when Sanders declared that Democrats need their own version of Fox News. What does he mean,
exactly? Should the proposed network engage in similar factual distortions and outright falsehoods, except this time in the
service of progressive goals?
By the way, it wouldn't work. Fox caters to an audience of angry old white men; the angry young white guys who would want
a left-wing version of this message are fewer in number, have less purchasing power, and anyway don't get their news from TV.
But that's a side point.
The main point, instead, is that what we're seeing is that the sort of people who really care about getting facts right
– who see facing up to inconvenient truths as an important value – are largely on the center-left. Care with evidence appears
to matter if you are, say, the 11th most liberal senator; this is in contrast not just with the right, but also with some of
the left.
The good news is that this general election will be a contest between the center-left and the ignorant right, so political
values and intellectual values will be in perfect accord.
You are too quick to judge. Trump will become POTUS only on
20th.
But Obama already proved "beyond reasonable doubt" that he
is "change we can believe in" bait and switch Maestro. That's
his legacy and he can't change it.
What a horrible, brazen betrayer of his voters he proved
to be. 100% neoliberal "wolf in sheep's clothing" ...
Pretty bright student of Bill Clinton. The same "they have
nowhere to go" attitude to working people and lower middle
class.
But in reality they have a place to go: they went to far
right nationalistic movements.
In this sense Bill Clinton and Barack Obama are godfathers
of the US far right renaissance. Barack actually did the same
trick in Ukraine, so this is his double "success". And the
major legacy.
But wait till 2020 and the situation might become very
interesting indeed. Especially if there will be no revival of
economics that Trump promised.
Libezkova -> Libezkova...
, -1
And don't forget his romance with "Muslim brotherhood" (and
his role in the creation of ISIS) as well as his Libya and
Syria adventures.
How do Republicans hold on to the voters Donald Trump
brought to the party?
Securing the loyalty of the millions of white
working-class Americans who lined up behind Trump will
require that all three wings of the Republican Party - its
business faction, its ideological purists and its cultural
traditionalists - abandon any idea of strict adherence to
core conservative principles on fiscal and social policy.
"Just as Reagan converted the G.O.P. into a conservative
party, with his victory this year, Trump has converted the
G.O.P. into a populist, America First party," Stephen Moore,
a Trump adviser whose résumé includes stints at the Heritage
Foundation and The Wall Street Journal, told Republican House
members on Nov. 23. "The G.O.P. is now officially a Trump
working-class party."
Moore is one of the most outspoken advocates of sweeping
change, explicitly willing, in the face of a voter uprising,
to jettison his own past convictions. In a subsequent
National Review article, he made this quite clear:
Trade and immigration are in my view unambiguously good
for the country - but new policies on these issues will have
to be done in ways that are supported by the American people,
not shoved down their throats by the elites. In this regard,
I am a populist. The elites in both parties have not
understood Trump_vs_deep_state and have often been contemptuous of the
intellect and lifestyle of the Trump loyalists.
Moore is not alone.
"Accommodating these new voters' concerns will be an
ongoing challenge, but the political payoffs are immense,"
Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the conservative Ethics and
Policy Center, wrote. "Bringing them into the Republican fold
... will make the Midwest a new red firewall."
The surge of whites from Midwest industrial states - or
more broadly from the heartland - to the Trump campaign
included many voters who were not naturally inclined to the
pre-2016 Republican Party. Olsen writes:
These voters have shunned Republicans because they
disagree with the party's focus on low taxes, small
government, and pro-business policies. They benefit
enormously from middle-class entitlement programs; their
children get what they consider to be good educations from
public schools and state universities. They have no problem
with redistribution so long as it is focused on either people
who can't work or people who do.
In other words, these voters have little or no interest in
the anti-government stance that had become reflexive among
many congressional Republicans.
Accommodation now requires fiscal, business and social
conservatives to compromise their beliefs in ways that will
be wrenching, if not intolerable, to some. Olsen's
assessment:
These voters view questions of public taxation and
spending differently than do other factions in the party.
Where movement conservatives see many social programs and the
high taxes that fund them as threats to liberty, these voters
see them as giving decent, hard-working people a hand up to
live decent, dignified lives. Where business conservatives
see free trade or immigration as helping people and
increasing growth, these voters see those policies as
favoring foreigners over themselves and as just another way
that their bosses try to pay them less without justification.
In the case of cultural litmus test issues, Olsen argues,
newly recruited white working-class converts to Trump's
Republican Party do not consider conservative dogma on gay
rights, abortion, gender identity, or traditional marriage
their priority.
Stephen Bannon, appointed senior counselor and chief
strategist to President Trump, puts much of what Moore and
Olsen say in colorful and perhaps more illuminating language.
In a Nov. 15 interview with The Hollywood Reporter, Bannon
described the goal of the "entirely new political movement"
he believes Trump is leading:
It's everything related to jobs. The conservatives are
going to go crazy. I'm the guy pushing a trillion-dollar
infrastructure plan. With negative interest rates throughout
the world, it's the greatest opportunity to rebuild
everything. Shipyards, ironworks, get them all jacked up.
We're just going to throw it up against the wall and see if
it sticks. It will be as exciting as the 1930s, greater than
the Reagan revolution - conservatives, plus populists, in an
economic nationalist movement.
Bannon is explicit in his identification of the enemy:
The globalists gutted the American working class and
created a middle class in Asia. The issue now is about
Americans looking to not get f-ed over. If we deliver, we'll
get 60 percent of the white vote, and 40 percent of the black
and Hispanic vote and we'll govern for 50 years.
Bannon's worldview was evident in the Trump campaign's
closing argument, a striking two-minute commercial that mixed
images of closed factories, multiracial workers, piles of
hundred dollar bills, shots of Hillary and the Clinton
Foundation, Trump rallies, busy Chinese assembly line workers
and footage of George Soros, Janet Yellen, and Lloyd
Blankfein - all of whom are Jewish.
Trump provided the voice-over, which was taken from a
speech he gave in West Palm Beach in October:
For those who control the levers of power in Washington
and for the global special interests, they partner with these
people that don't have your good in mind. The political
establishment that is trying to stop us is the same group
responsible for our disastrous trade deals, massive illegal
immigration and economic and foreign policies that have bled
our country dry.
The political establishment has brought about the
destruction of our factories and our jobs as they flee to
Mexico, China and other countries all around the world. It's
a global power structure that is responsible for the economic
decisions that have robbed our working class, stripped our
country of its wealth and put that money into the pockets of
a handful of large corporations and political entities. The
only thing that can stop this corrupt machine is you. The
only force strong enough to save our country is us.
This ad was part and parcel of an election that has put
some of the most vocal House Republicans, including the
vaunted Freedom Caucus, on notice that defying Trump's
right-populist orientation could put their political future
at risk. Since its formation in Jan. 2015, the caucus, a
group of roughly 35 Republicans with ties to the Tea Party
movement, has repeatedly blocked efforts by Republican
leaders to produce compromise legislation that could win
Democratic support. The group was largely responsible for the
forced resignation of former Speaker John Boehner.
"Trump dominated - in the primary and general elections -
those districts represented by Congress's most conservative
members," Tim Alberta wrote in National Review (he is now at
Politico):
They once believed they were elected to advance a narrowly
ideological agenda, but Trump's success has given them reason
to question that belief.
Among these archconservatives, who in the past had been
fanatical in their pursuit of ideological purity, the
realization that they can no longer depend on unfailing
support from their constituents has provoked deep anxiety.
As Alberta put it:
Even if they support Trump nine times of ten, voting
against him once could trigger a tweetstorm or the threat of
a visit to their district. It's a chilling thought for
members who know that the Republican National Committee, the
National Republican Congressional Committee, and the House
GOP leadership already want them gone.
Kevin McCarthy, the House majority leader, plans to make
full use of Trump's leverage to keep recalcitrant members of
the Freedom Caucus in line.
In a Nov. 29 interview at the Washington Post, McCarthy
noted that the caucus had been a thorn in the side of House
leaders, but now "there's less ability for the Freedom Caucus
to do those types of things" - blocking leadership bills, for
example, especially those measures that have Trump's backing.
McCarthy pointed out that "Trump probably did the best" in
the districts of caucus members, and
it would be hard for them to stand up if President-Elect
Trump is asking for this fundamental change, and they're
saying no to it.
Various initiatives outlined by Moore, Olsen and Bannon
could easily die on the vine; nevertheless, the open debate
among Republican operatives and advisers stands in contrast
to the Democrats' tortured struggle to address those aspects
of identity politics - race, immigration, gender and
sexuality, for example - lurking beneath the large scale
defection of white voters.
The incendiary nature of identity issues has prompted the
two leading candidates for the chairmanship of the Democratic
National Committee, Tom Perez and Keith Ellison, to
purposefully focus on anodyne concerns.
"Our universal message of access to economic opportunity
resonates with the ironworker in northeastern Ohio and the
immigrant in South Florida," Perez told the Huffington Post,
referring to two states Clinton lost. "We sometimes have a
relationship deficit with our voters, because we're not
communicating that message."
Ellison, in turn, matched Perez for blandness in a
prepared statement on Dec. 7:
At this point, the Democratic Party must be the party that
delivers for working people. We can do that by meeting folks
where they are, looking them in the eye, treating them with
respect, and working to solve their problems.
In a postelection analysis on Dec. 5, Stanley Greenberg, a
Democratic pollster, and Page Gardner, president of the
Women's Voices Women Vote Action Fund, were cautious when
they referred to identity politics in the Clinton campaign:
Instead of spending the final weeks of the campaign
advancing a compelling economic message to show Clinton would
bring change, the campaign closed with a promise to fight for
opportunity and to unite a multicultural America under the
banner of being '"stronger together."
For the left coalition, the tangled issues of race,
gender, immigration and identity are inescapable. Crime as an
issue is similarly divisive. Over the weekend, for instance,
Garry McCarthy, the former Chicago police superintendent
appointed by Rahm Emanuel in 2011, breached Democratic norms
and made national headlines when he blamed Black Lives Matter
for a rise in violent crime. In a radio interview, McCarthy
showcased the kind of potentially explosive material that
could split the Democratic Party:
What's happening, and this is ironic, is that a movement
with the goal of saving black lives at this point is getting
black lives taken, because 80 percent of our murder victims
here in Chicago are male blacks.
McCarthy also pointed out that, "less than half of 1
percent of all the shootings in this city involve police
officers shooting civilians."
Nor did McCarthy stop there. He contended that
the Trump election quite frankly is a reaction to that. I
think the people are tired of career politicians who've never
really had a job telling us how we should think and how we
should act.
In late November such liberal icons as Bernie Sanders and
President Obama cautiously broached the subject of identity
politics. On Nov. 20, Sanders told a group in Boston:
It's not good enough for someone to say, "I'm a woman!
Vote for me!" No, that's not good enough. What we need is a
woman who has the guts to stand up to Wall Street, to the
insurance companies, to the drug companies, to the fossil
fuel industry.
That same day, Obama addressed reporters traveling with
him in Lima, Peru:
One message I do have for Democrats is that a strategy
that's just microtargeting particular, discrete groups in a
Democratic coalition sometimes will win you elections, but
it's not going to win you the broad mandate that you need.
In a centrist challenge to Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic
House Leader, Tim Ryan, an Ohio congressman who presented
himself as a champion of the "flyover states," argued against
campaign strategies in which
we try to slice the electorate up. And we try to say,
'You're black, you're brown, you're gay, you're straight,
you're a woman, you're a man.' The reality of it is there's
no juice in that kind of campaign.
Alarm bells went off. Ian Millhiser, an editor at the
liberal website Think Progress, turned to Twitter on Nov. 20
to accuse Ryan of sexism:
This thing where an obscure male backbencher thinks he
deserves to replace the most accomplished woman in Congress
is how sexism works.
Then in December, Bobby Rush, a black congressman from
Chicago, told the Boston Globe that if Democrats shift their
primary focus to the "white middle and working class" and
take "for granted the black working class or the black
underclass, the party will add an arm and lose a body." Rush
warned:
If I see my party not considering, even more intensely
than they've done in the past, the economic, social, and
political climate of the people I represent, the people I've
been fighting for all my life, then I'm going to raise hell.
A Vox.com postelection headline, "The whole Democratic
Party is now a smoking pile of rubble," contains more than a
grain of truth.
At the moment, the Democratic Party is structurally
fragile and its members have shied away from the kind of
radical upheaval Republicans have been forced to embrace.
Nonetheless, Democrats will soon face enormously risky
decisions.
Does the party move left, as a choice of Keith Ellison for
D.N.C. chairman would suggest? Does it wait for internecine
conflict to emerge among Republicans as Trump and his allies
fulfill campaign promises - repealing Obamacare, enacting tax
reform and deporting millions of undocumented aliens?
Or should the party edge toward the center, attempting a
strategic reposition on thorny issues of race, immigration,
gender and identity, in effect acknowledging pressures from
the right - the very pressures that delivered crucial white
votes to Trump?
Democrats face a vast unknown - unable to stand still and
unable to make reasoned choices until they know to what
lengths, demonic or inspired, Trump might go.
I would support democratic socialists like Bernie Sanders
over progressive neoliberals like Clinton and Vox. We need
policies that work, not half-measures with a mutlicultrual
spin. The country is becoming more and more multicultural and
diverse on its own. Prosperity will help ease the anxiety of
change. With shared prosperity and rising wages, trade and
immigration will be focused on less as scapegoats.
With
Trump joining the public in going after Republicans for their
ethics fiasco, the Democratic leadership is supposedly
thinking they might work with Trump on some sort of
infrastructure plan that the deficit hawks and Freedom Caucus
would be against.
As Benjamin Appelbaum reports above, Yellen's Fed may
cancel out any fiscal stimulus with faster rate hikes. Would
Trump notice? Who knows?
Giving Trump credit on reigning in (temporarily) this ethics
trial balloon may indeed be BS but you need to state a reason
for calling it so. Try this out:
I just love this idea that Trump created new voters.
Somehow, a difference of 80,000 or so votes in three states
(one state had the lowest turnout in 20 years) means Trump
brought " millions of white working-class Americans" into the
Republican Party is absolute nonsense.
Stephen Moore believes it. Than again, does anyone believe
anything he says is correct and/or true?
Although I have yet to come across a definitive actual
count of the 3 State voters that went for Trump over Hillary.
I have read from 80,000 to 128,000 and use 120,000, the high
side, to be safe.
Trump won the Republican primary and general election.
""Trump dominated - in the primary and general elections -
those districts represented by Congress's most conservative
members," Tim Alberta wrote in National Review (he is now at
Politico):
They once believed they were elected to advance a narrowly
ideological agenda, but Trump's success has given them reason
to question that belief.
Among these archconservatives, who in the past had been
fanatical in their pursuit of ideological purity, the
realization that they can no longer depend on unfailing
support from their constituents has provoked deep anxiety."
These archconservatives who say that Trump's flimsy
mandate is just based on just 80,000 votes in the rustbelt
are in for a rude awakening. He won the primary. In Northern
States. In Southern States. Everywhere.
It's hilarious that the progressive neoliberals like
DeLong, Krugman, Drum, Yglesias etc have said exactly nothing
about Trump's tweets at Congressional Republicans over the
independent ethics committee.
There is a propaganda technique where you describe staw-person
characterizations then undermine them. When in fact the whole
longwinded campaign depends on readers and listeners not
bothering or too tired to focus and see the
mischaracterizations in the straw.
This whole thing is an
apologia, for propaganda purposes, as I see it.
We all need to take care. It takes a lot of money and
effort to organize such propaganda exercises. Please take
care in using and reusing these type things.
"Trump has converted the G.O.P. into a populist, America
First party" is an overstatement. He definitely made some
efforts in this direction, but it is premature to declare
this "fait accompli".
If we consider two possibilities: "GOP establishment chew
up Trump" and "Trump chew up GOP establishment" it is clear
that possibility is more probable.
Theoretically that might give Democrats a chance, but I
think the Clintonized Party is too corrupt to take this
chance. "An honest politician is one who, when he is bought,
will stay bought." ;-)
In any case, 2018 elections will be very interesting as I
think that the process of a slow collapse of neoliberal
ideology and the rise of the US nationalist movements ("far
right") will continue unabated.
This is the same process that we see in full force in EU.
A Threat to US Democracy:
Political Dysfunction
http://nyti.ms/2hOJ9AB
NYT - Eduardo Porter - Jan 3
Is American democracy broken?
There are precedents around the world for the kind of
political jolt the United States experienced in November.
They usually include a political firebrand who promises to
sweep away a system rigged to serve the powerful rather than
the interests of ordinary people. They usually end badly,
when the popular champion decides to read electoral victory
as an invitation to bend the institutions of democracy to the
force of his will.
Most Americans, I'm sure, never expected to worry about
that sort of thing in the United States. And yet concern is
decidedly in the air (*). Did a combination of globalization,
demographic change, cultural revolutions and whatever else
just upend America's consensus in support of liberal market
democracy? Did American democracy just succumb to the
strongman's promise?
I'm skeptical that the United States is about to careen
down the path taken by, say, Venezuela, governed by the whim
of President Nicolás Maduro - the handpicked successor of the
populist champion Hugo Chávez, who was elected in the late
1990s on a promise to sweep away an entrenched ruling class
and proceeded to battle any democratic institution that stood
in his way.
Still, the embrace by millions of American voters of a
billionaire authoritarian who argues that the "system" has
been rigged to serve a cosmopolitan ruling class against the
interests of ordinary people does suggest that American
democracy has a unique credibility problem.
The United States resisted the temptations of Nazism,
fascism and communism that beguiled Europe in the first half
of the 20th century. Extreme parties like France's National
Front or the United Kingdom Independence Party never
established an American toehold. Populist candidates running
as outsiders - Pat Buchanan, Ross Perot, Ralph Nader - could
only tip the balance between the two parties of the
establishment.
And yet, when the 21st century brought about a populist
insurrection, the United States government was quick to cave.
"What makes the United States so distinctive?" wrote
Ronald Inglehart, a political scientist at the University of
Michigan, in a somewhat prescient article a few months before
the election. "One reason may be that in recent years U.S.
democracy has become appallingly dysfunctional."
Working Americans have suffered disproportionately from
the economic shocks of our time. Income inequality in the
United States far exceeds anything seen in other advanced
nations. Families from the middle on down have suffered
stagnant or declining incomes for years. And the nation's
threadbare social safety net remains the weakest in the
industrialized world, providing only the most meager
insurance to working families undercut by globalization and
technological change.
But for all the reasons Americans may have to rebel
against the status quo, what made the political system so
vulnerable to a populist insurrection in November was that -
for all its institutional strengths - the political system
itself has come to be seen by too many voters as
illegitimate.
"There is persistent lack of confidence in U.S. political
institutions which allows populists to make hay," said Pippa
Norris, a political scientist at the Kennedy School of
Government at Harvard and the University of Sydney in
Australia. "And the institutions need a major overhaul
because some, like elections, are badly broken."
This is not just about the Electoral College system, which
awarded the presidency to the candidate who lost the popular
vote. It is not just about money's growing influence in
politics, though that plays a part, too.
The problems are embedded in the design of America's
political institutions - with all their checks and balances
ostensibly designed to slow down policy-making and prevent
political extremists from swiftly taking over the gears of
government. These institutions have produced a polarized
government, paralyzed by partisan gridlock, unable to govern
effectively. They have built a system easy to demonize as
rigged.
The Electoral Integrity Project, run by Professor Norris
and colleagues from Harvard and the University of Sydney in
Australia, surveys thousands of election experts to assess
the quality of hundreds of elections around the world. They
are asked to rate how well district boundaries are drawn,
whether voter registration procedures are adequate, and the
effectiveness of campaign finance regulation, among other
things.
Based on the average evaluations of the elections in 2012
and 2014, the United States' electoral integrity was ranked
52nd among the 153 countries in the survey - behind all the
rich Western democracies and also countries like Costa Rica
and Uruguay, the Baltic states, and Cape Verde and Benin in
Africa.
A paper by Professor Norris on these results, titled "Why
American Elections Are Flawed," describes the major problems
with American electoral institutions, perhaps the most
critical of which is partisan control over electoral
institutions, which has subjected the integrity of elections
to the distortions of a partisan lens.
The fact that each state has its own set of electoral
regulations - covering things like the type of technology
used and opening hours of the polls - means that Americans'
voting rights can change substantially from state to state.
And the party polarization that has gripped statehouses
across the country has stymied attempts to build sensible,
effective electoral regulations and bred mistrust.
The patchwork of electoral systems - run by politically
appointed local officials managing part-time workers - is
hardly a recipe for competence. "Among mature democracies,
the nuts and bolts of American contests seem notoriously
vulnerable to incompetence and simple human errors," Ms.
Norris notes. ...
kthomas -> Fred C. Dobbs...
, -1
Gerry Mander.
Oh, and let's not forget the Corporations
have Constitutional rights.
Democracy like love is
a fuzzy term.
Democracy for whom?
For top .1%? For
top 1%? For top 10%?
For 100% of voters?
A more interesting
question is whether
two party system based
on "the first past the
post" rule can be
considered a democracy
at all.
If the party elites
are free to chose two
candidates for which
then voters are forced
to vote this is
oligarchy (the rule of
the elite) or at best
poliarchy (two
competing factions of
the same elite install
their candidate using
popular vote for
legitimizing one of
the two pre-chosen
candidates), not a
democracy.
Nobody can dismiss
the fact that the iron
law of oligarchy is
the governing law of
any two party system.
In this sense
Parliamentary
democracy with
proportional
representation is a
much better model.
One can see that
the iron law of
oligarchy was clearly
in action in the
Democratic Party the
last Presidential
elections.
In case of
Republican Party this
time the law was
broken (or it looks to
us like that) but this
exception just
confirms the rule.
All of the political, partisan progressive neoliberals are
pretty pessimistic about Trump: DeLong, Krugman, Vox, etc.
(the same people that assured us Clinton was a great
candidate who would win easily...)
And it's funny how the stock market is booming (despite
the looming trade wars) and all of the establishment type
neoliberals are pretty optimistic! (DeLong here questions
Olivier Blanchard)
Should-Read: Disagreeing with Olivier, my chances of
success are surely less than 50-50. Nevertheless...
As I read the evidence, the short-run fiscal multipliers
(1) from government purchases are rather high, (2) from
transfer payments to the liquidity-constrained are moderate,
and (3) from high-income tax cuts are next to zero. At the
moment it looks like effectively all of the Trump fiscal
initiative to be will take the form of (3). Some of it will
be direct tax cuts. The rest will be tax credits to
businesses that are not currently cash-constrained but
rather, at the margin, in the share buyback business.
But they will produce a stronger dollar.
Thus I expect next to no effective fiscal stimulus. I
expect a larger capital inflow (trade deficit). And I am told
we now expect the trade war to start soon.
Thus I do not see why Olivier Blanchard is so optimistic.
Where is he coming from? What does he see that I do not?
The "stronger dollar" seems to be the go-to criticism.
I agree that tax cuts and deregulation alone won't do much
(see the Bush years) except blow more asset bubbles.
I just don't get the theory of a larger capital inflow and
strong dollar. Aren't those good things?
All of the comfortable progressive neoliberals' vacations
in foreign countries will be cheaper. Their multinational
corporate sponsors now can purchase more for the dollar in
foreign lands, whether it be labor, assets, whatever.
Yes the export sector will be hurt, but they've never
really cared about the export sector or unionized
manufacturing jobs. The Fed will create more jobs as
necessary. Plus it's mostly automation which can't be
stopped. What, are you a Luddite?
"To the extent that both growth and interest rates are
higher, the dollar is likely to appreciate, leading,
ironically, to larger US trade deficits, which Donald Trump
the candidate indicated he wanted to fight. This leads me to
trade issues and trade measures."
Isn't that what Clinton wanted? Higher growth and interest
rates? That would also lead to a stronger dollar.
But absent tax cuts for the rich and deficits, interest
rates wouldn't be so high.
Seems like progressive neoliberals and mainstream macro
economists are slaves to the bond vigilantes. See Bill
Clinton dropping his middle class spending bill campaign
promise.
"Increase the demand for domestic goods, and increase
output (although, even then, as pointed out by Robert Mundell
more than fifty years ago, the exchange rate may appreciate
enough to lead to lower output in the end). But the "by
themselves" assumption is just not right: Tariffs imposed by
the United States would most likely lead to a tariff war and
thus decrease exports. And the decrease in imports and
exports would not be a wash. On the demand side, higher
import prices would lead the Fed to increase interest rates
further. "
So tariffs are bad because they cause retaliation. That's
politics, not economics. And again the Fed is brought in to
tell us that something good is actually bad.
High growth causes the Fed to kill the economy. Same would
happen under Democrats.
"At every point of the race, Mr. Trump was doing better
among white voters without a college degree than Mitt
Romney did in 2012 - by a wide margin. Mrs. Clinton was
also not matching Mr. Obama's support among black voters."
"Mrs. Clinton's gains were concentrated among the most
affluent and best-educated white voters, much as Mr.
Trump's gains were concentrated among the lowest-income
and least-educated white voters."
Trump won the Republican primary and general election.
""Trump dominated - in the primary and general elections -
those districts represented by Congress's most conservative
members," Tim Alberta wrote in National Review (he is now at
Politico):
They once believed they were elected to advance a narrowly
ideological agenda, but Trump's success has given them reason
to question that belief.
Among these archconservatives, who in the past had been
fanatical in their pursuit of ideological purity, the
realization that they can no longer depend on unfailing
support from their constituents has provoked deep anxiety."
These archconservatives who say that Trump's flimsy
mandate is just based on just 80,000 votes in the rustbelt
are in for a rude awakening. He won the primary. In Northern
States. In Southern States. Everywhere.
It's hilarious that the progressive neoliberals like
DeLong, Krugman, Drum, Yglesias etc have said exactly nothing
about Trump's tweets at Congressional Republicans over the
independent ethics committee.
There is a propaganda technique where you describe
straw-person characterizations then undermine them. When in
fact the whole longwinded campaign depends on readers and
listeners not bothering or too tired to focus and see the
mischaracterizations in the straw.
This whole thing is an
apologia, for propaganda purposes, as I see it.
We all need to take care. It takes a lot of money and
effort to organize such propaganda exercises. Please take
care in using and reusing these type things.
"Trump has converted the G.O.P. into a populist, America
First party" is an overstatement. He definitely made some
efforts in this direction, but it is premature to declare
this "fait accompli".
If we consider two possibilities: "GOP establishment chew
up Trump" and "Trump chew up GOP establishment" it is clear
that possibility is more probable.
Theoretically that might give Democrats a chance, but I
think the Clintonized Party is too corrupt to take this
chance. "An honest politician is one who, when he is bought,
will stay bought." ;-)
In any case, 2018 elections will be very interesting as I
think that the process of a slow collapse of neoliberal
ideology and the rise of the US nationalist movements ("far
right") will continue unabated.
This is the same process that we see in full force in EU.
is the usa immune to this kind of stagnation? if so,
why?
Libezkova -> yuan...
, -1
> "is the usa immune to this kind of stagnation? if so,
why?"
Impoverishment of population under neoliberalism pushes
the economy into recession. Not enough demand so unless
exports compensate for this you are cooked. To make the
situation much worse Japan is net oil importer.
The USA like Japan is importer too (actually the largest
one) but it has large domestic production: forth largest
(data below are for 2015):
== quote ==
Country | Production (bbl/day) | Share of World's output
(Percentage)
1 Russia 10,107,000 14.05%
2 Saudi Arabia 9,735,200 13.09%
3 United States 9,373,000 12.23%
4 China 4,189,000 5.15%
5 Canada 3,603,000 4.54%
6 Iraq 3,368,000 4.45%
7 Iran 3,113,000 4.14%
== end of quote ==
Simultaneously the USA is the owner of world reserve
currency (in which oil is predominantly traded). That also
helps.
Those two factors as well as the fact that the Fed put
the economy on life support in 2011 again might be one
reason why the USA still (formally) is not in perma-recession
(secular stagnation), but it might be in the pipeline with
oil prices reverting or exceeding the previous maximum.
Which might be a matter of the next three-five years.
Trump still might be lucky but "after Trump" might be not.
If we measure income of the lower 80% of the US
population I am not that sure the USA is doing that well
and the economics is out of the wood. Real GDP per capita
has increased since 2009 while the real median income per
household has not, indicating a trend toward greater
income inequality (and/or smaller households). Extreme
poverty ( households living on less than $2 per day before
government benefits), doubled from 636,000 to 1.46 million
households (including 2.8 million children) between 1996
and 2011, with most of increase occurring between late
2008 and early 2011
Most jobs created since 2008 are McJobs in service
sector, but a lot of jobs eliminated were permanent
reasonably paying jobs. So domestic demand is dropping and
with the credit lines already overextended there is no
light at the end of the tunnel.
Of course, neoliberal "cult of GDP" (aka "pro-growth")
crowd will deny this, but now GDP includes everything
including such activities as gambling (and in GB
prostitution). In other words, it is probably slightly
fudged, much like inflation numbers.
This is my hypothesis, anyway... My impression is that
markets got ahead of themselves in the current rally.
Real capitalism, the policies that place a priority on
building more capital, solve most income inequality,
because you can't build capital without paying a lot of
workers, and when lots of workers are being paid, they can
demand more pay, and at the same time, more capital means
more production, and to sell all the increased production,
prices must equal the wages paid for both operations and
for building all the capital.
Economies are zero sum, at
least in the long run. Since conservatives have adopted
free lunch economics, the idea that economies are not zero
sum, the idea that prices can far exceed wages paid,
profits come out of ever increasing debt, which is
basically paying for current production using labor from
the future.
Since Reagan and the conservative embrace of free lunch
economics, private and public debt has exploded,
committing trillions in future wages to paying for past
consumption.
A sign of the past consumption is in the decaying value
of infrastructure. Flint water is a case of bipartisan
free lunch economics. Can't charge higher rates for water
starting in 1950 and keep hiking water rates because
paying workers cost too much, and the unemployed, or
underemployed workers being paid too little because low
prices require not paying workers, can not afford higher
water rates to pay workers which would lift all wages in
Flint. By not paying workers for the past 75 years, the
water system capital has been consumed, thus creating
billions in debt for the continued supply of clean water.
Multiply Flint water by the hundred thousand
communities who made similar bipartisan free lunch
economic policy decisions on water, sewer, energy,
transportation, education, housing, communications, and
the US has trillions in debt to be the leader in national
economic power globally that the US was in the 60s.
Even in health, the US has run up trillions in debt by
failing to pay more for better health capital over the
past half century. Better health in human capital is
costly because humans would need to work more every hour
of the day for free. Like walking or biking instead of
driving. People hate public transit because it can be
provided only by having central nodes to use it, requiring
human power to get to and from those nodes.
But having placed a priority on using cars to move more
than the distance to where the car is parked, paying to
use cars has not been high enough, so the roads are
trillions in debt in carrying capacity.
But hey, we can't charge higher prices to use cars
because the low wage food workers stuck in that job
because they lost their road construction job, can not
afford to pay more for using a car to pay more road
construction workers.
Even hard
core conservatives know this is not true in general. Per
financial markets, Milton Friedman would tell you how
backwards this claim really is. Of course he grew up
during the Great Depression so he saw even as a kid how
destructive financial crises can be. Maybe you should read
some of what he wrote about that period.
People like Warren Buffet make their bread and butter on
market crashes - they have lots of reserve cash and can
buy up equities at bargain basement prices. Personally I
missed the boat by a year because I'm small potatoes but I
got in by 2010 and did very well indeed.
I think one of
the biggest distortions is in big Pharma, where the
government pays for a lot of the research and gets nigh on
none of the return, and excessive patent and patent
manipulation allow pharma to rip off consumers.
This is essentially medical care, which really should
be a public good. It's not, it's a distorted market.
It's now democratic socialists versus progressive
neoliberals.
The progressive neoliberals have failed the world over.
Hillary Clinton, a competent, knowledgeable establishment
politician, lost to a laughable reality TV star clown.
Think about it. Mull it over in your mind. It's hilarious
how cocky and confident the neoliberals were throughout the
election. It's amazing how wrong they were. Trump's victory
is almost worth it. Not quite.
Published on
Friday, February 26, 2016
by Common Dreams
"We Are Not Denmark": Hillary Clinton and Liberal American
Exceptionalism
by Matthew Stanley
Several months removed, it now seems clear that the
Democratic debate on October 13 contained an illuminating
moment that has come to embody the 2016 Democratic Primary
and the key differences between its two candidates.
Confronting Bernie Sanders's insistence that the United
States has much to learn from more socialized nations,
particularly the Nordic Model, Hillary Clinton was direct: "I
love Denmark. But we are not Denmark. We are the United
States of America."
The implication behind this statement-the reasoning that
ideas and institutions (in this case social and economic
programs) that are successful in other nations are somehow
practically or ideologically inconsistent with Americans and
American principles-speaks to a longstanding sociopolitical
framework that has justified everything from continental
expansion to the Iraq War: American exceptionalism. Rooted in
writings of Alexis de Tocqueville and the mythology of John
Winthrop's "City Upon a Hill," the notion that the history
and mission of the United States and the superiority of its
political and economic traditions makes it impervious to same
the forces that influence other peoples has coursed through
Abraham Lincoln's "Gettysburg Address," the Cold War rhetoric
of John F. Kennedy and Lyndon Johnson, and the foreign policy
declarations of Barack Obama.
espite particular historical trends-early and relatively
stable political democracy, birthright citizenship, the
absence of a feudal tradition, the relative weakness of class
consciousness-historians have critiqued this "American
exceptionalism" as far more fictive than physical, frequently
citing the concept as a form of state mythology. Although
different histories lead naturally to historical and perhaps
even structural dissimilarities, America's twenty-first
century "exceptions" appear as dubious distinctions: gun
violence, carbon emissions, mass incarceration, wealth
inequality, racial disparities, capital punishment, child
poverty, and military spending.
et even at a time when American exceptionalism has never
been more challenged both by empirically-validated social and
economic data and in public conversation, the concept
continues to play an elemental role in our two-party
political discourse. The Republican Party is, of course,
awash with spurious, almost comically stupid dialogue about a
mythic American past-"making America great again"-the racial
and ethnic undertones of which are unmistakable. Those same
Republicans have lambasted Obama and other high profile
Democrats for not believing sufficiently in their brand of
innate, transhistoric American supremacy.
But this Americentrism is not the sole province of the
GOP. We need look no further than bipartisan support for the
military-industrial complex and the surveillance state to see
that national exceptionalism, and its explicit
double-standard toward other nations, resides comfortably
within the Democratic Party as well. Russian President
Vladimir Putin and Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa
censured Obama's use of the term in the fall of 2013, with
the latter likening it to the "chosen race" theories of Nazi
Germany. Hyperbole notwithstanding, academics often do
associate American exceptionalism with military conquest. It
does, after all, have deep roots in the Manifest Destiny
ethos that spurred the Mexican War, drove continental and
trans-Pacific expansion, and emerged as a paternalistic
justification for voluminous military interventions in Latin
America, Africa, and the Middle East. As Dick Cheney
suggests, "the world needs a powerful America." In this
unilateral missionizing zeal Clinton proves most typical. As
historian Michael Kazin argues in a recent piece for The
Nation: "Hillary Clinton is best described as a liberal. Like
every liberal president (and most failed Democratic nominees)
since Wilson, she wants the United States to be the dominant
power in the world, so she doesn't question the massive sums
spent on the military and on the other branches of the
national-security state."
But Clinton's brand of American exceptionalism goes beyond
the issue of American military dominion and into the policy
potentials of mid-century social liberalism and, more
specifically, the neoliberalism that has since replaced it.
Indeed, since George McGovern's failed presidential bid of
1972, neoliberals, moving decidedly rightward on economic
issues, have consistently employed exceptionalist code to
fight off movements, ideas, and challengers from the left.
The victims include leftist efforts toward both American
demilitarization and the expansion of a "socialistic" welfare
state. Socialist feminist Liza Featherstone and others have
denounced Clinton's uncritical praise of the "opportunity"
and "freedom" of American capitalism vis-à-vis other
developed nations. "With this bit of frankness," Featherstone
explains, referring to the former Secretary of State's
"Denmark" comments, "Clinton helpfully explained why no
socialist-indeed, no non-millionaire-should support her. She
is smart enough to know that women in the United States
endure far more poverty, unemployment, and food insecurity
than women in Denmark-yet she shamelessly made clear that she
was happy to keep it that way." Indeed, Clinton's
denunciation of the idea that the United States should look
more like Denmark betrayed one of the glaring the fault lines
within the Democratic Party, and between Clintonian
liberalism and Sandersite leftism. It also revealed a more
clandestine strain of American exceptionalism common among
liberals and the Democratic Party elite in which
"opportunity" serves as a stand-in for wider egalitarian
reform. As Elizabeth Bruenig highlighted in The New Republic:
"Since getting ahead on one's own grit is such a key part of
the American narrative, it's easy to see how voters might be
attracted to Clinton's opportunity-based answer to our social
and economic woes, though it leaves the problem of inequality
vastly under-addressed. Indeed, a kind of American
exceptionalism does seem to underpin much opportunity-focused
political rhetoric."
This preference for insider politics (rather than mass
movements involving direct action) and limited, means-tested
social programs speaks to a broader truth about modern
liberalism: it functions in a way that not only doesn't
challenge the basic tenets of American exceptionalism, it
often reinforces them. Whether vindicating war and torture
and civil liberties violations, talking past the War on Drugs
and the carceral state, or exhibiting coolness toward the
type of popular protest seen during of Occupy Wall Street,
with its direct attacks on a sort of American Sonderweg,
establishment Democrats are adept at using a more "realistic"
brand of Americentrism to consolidate power and anchor the
party in the status quo. Now the 2016 Democratic Primary has
seen progressive ideas including universal health care,
tuition-free college, and a living minimum wage, all
hallmarks of large swaths of the rest of the developed world,
delegitimized through some mutation of liberal exceptionalist
thinking. These broadminded reforms are apparently off
limits, not because they are not good ideas (though opponents
make that appraisal too), but because somehow their
unachievability is exceptional to the United States.
All this is not to exclude (despite his "democratic
socialist" professions) Sanders's own milder brand of
"America first," most evident in his economic nationalism,
but to emphasize that American exceptionalism and the logical
and practical dangers it poses exist in degrees across a
spectrum of American politics. Whatever his nationalistic
inclinations, Sanders's constant reiteration of America's
need to learn from and adapt to the social, economic, and
political models of other nations demonstrates an
ethno-flexibility rarely seen in American major party
politics. "Every other major country " might as well be his
official campaign slogan. This bilateral outlook does not fit
nearly as neatly within Clinton's traditional liberal
paradigm that, from defenses of American war and empire to
the, uses American exceptionalism tactically, dismissing its
conservative adherents as nationalist overkill yet quietly
exploiting the theory when politically or personally
expeditious.
In looking beyond our national shores and domestic
origin-sources for fresh and functional policy, Sanders seems
to grasp that, from the so-called "foreign influences" of the
Republican free soil program or Robert La Follette's
Wisconsin Idea or even Lyndon Johnson's Great Society,
American high politics have been at their most morally
creative and sweepingly influential not only when swayed by
direct action and mass movements, but also when they are less
impeded by the constraints of ethnocentrism and
exceptionalism. The "We are not Denmark" sentiment might
appear benign, lacking as it does the bluster of Republican
claims to national supremacy and imaginary "golden age" pasts
and what economist Thomas Picketty has termed a "mythical
capitalism." But it is the "seriousness" and very gentility
of liberal Americentrism that underscores the power,
omnipresence, and intellectual poverty of cultural dismissal.
"I still believe in American exceptionalism," Clinton has
proclaimed in pushing for U.S. military escalation in Syria.
Indeed she does, and it is by no means relegated to the
sphere of foreign policy.
"Socialist feminist Liza Featherstone and others have
denounced Clinton's uncritical praise of the "opportunity"
and "freedom" of American capitalism vis-à-vis other
developed nations. "With this bit of frankness," Featherstone
explains, referring to the former Secretary of State's
"Denmark" comments, "Clinton helpfully explained why no
socialist-indeed, no non-millionaire-should support her. She
is smart enough to know that women in the United States
endure far more poverty, unemployment, and food insecurity
than women in Denmark-yet she shamelessly made clear that she
was happy to keep it that way." Indeed, Clinton's
denunciation of the idea that the United States should look
more like Denmark betrayed one of the glaring the fault lines
within the Democratic Party, and between Clintonian
liberalism and Sandersite leftism."
Is it better to ignore
this fault line and try to paper it over or is it better to
debate the issues in a polite and congenial manner?
Of course the progressive neoliberals in this forum
regularly resort to ad hominem to any ideas or facts that
don't line up with the agreed-upon party line.
And then our Miss Manners Chris Lowrey complains about all
sides.
One thing about this website is
that we don't have a "like" button. Since expressing simple
agreement is not very interesting, most people don't do it
and the interactions that do occur are critical. That creates
the impression that people are more uniformly hostile to one
another than they probably are.
Both Clinton's are war mongering corporatists apologizing for
banksters, same mold as Obama who is a better con artist than
HRC!
That democrats are "soft" on the war trough is false
news since 1960. But a good scam to get pro abortion faux
liberals to support the war machine's trough.
Funding planned parenthood does not make war criminals
liberal.
"... "The social power, i.e. the multiplied productive force", wrote Marx, appears to people "not as their own united power but as an alien force existing outside them, of the origin and end of which they are ignorant, which they thus cannot control." ..."
"... This leads to the sort of alienation which Marx described. This is summed up by respondents to a You Gov survey (pdf) cited by Earle, Moran and Ward-Perkins, who said; "Economics is out of my hands so there is no point discussing it." ..."
"The social power, i.e. the multiplied productive force", wrote Marx,
appears to people "not as their own united power but as an alien force existing
outside them, of the origin and end of which they are ignorant, which they
thus cannot control."
I was reminded of this by a fine passage in The Econocracy in which the
authors show that "the economy" in the sense we now know it is a relatively
recent invention and that economists claim to be experts capable of understanding
this alien force:
As increasing areas of political and social life are colonized by economic
language and logic, the vast majority of citizens face the struggle of making
informed democratic choices in a language they have never been taught. (p19)
This leads to the sort of alienation which Marx described. This is
summed up by respondents to a You Gov survey (pdf) cited by Earle, Moran
and Ward-Perkins, who said; "Economics is out of my hands so there is no
point discussing it."
In one important sense such an attitude is absurd. Every time you decide
what to buy, or how much to save, or what job to do or how long to work,
economics is in your hands and you are making an economic decision.
This suggests to me two different conceptions of what economics is. In
one conception – that of Earle, Moran and Ward-Perkins – economists claim
to be a priestly elite who understand "the economy". As Alasdair MacIntyre
said, such a claim functions as a demand for power and wealth:
Civil servants and managers alike [he might have added economists-CD]
justify themselves and their claims to authority, power and money by invoking
their own competence as scientific managers (After Virtue, p 86).
There is, though, a second conception of what economists should do. Rather
than exploit alienation for their own advantage, we should help people mitigate
it. This consists of three different tasks:
We should help people make better decisions for themselves. This
needn't consist of "nudging". We might do it by increasing their information.
Or we might do it by warning people to avoid the most common errors
of judgment. This is what I do in the day job. By this standard, Martin
Lewis is one of country's leading economists.
We shouldn't engage in futurology. That's the job of soothsayers,
necromancers and charlatans*. Instead we should help build resilience
to shocks. At the individual level, this consists in helping people
to make choices, such as in building well-balanced portfolios. And at
the social level it means helping to build institutions which allow
people to bear risk: this can be private insurance markets as well as
a welfare state.
We can undermine the justifications for inequalities of wealth and
power by pointing out that bosses and bankers' claims to them are often
plain wrong.
The difference between these two conceptions has been highlighted, inadvertently,
by Jeremy Warner. He says economists have had a "terrible year" because
their warnings of a Brexit shock were wrong. Maybe, maybe not. But this
allegation only applies to economists as priests. In our second conception,
economists have had a good year. For example, most actively managed UK equity
unit trusts have under-performed trackers, which supports our longstanding
advice in favor of passive management.
I should stress here that the distinction between economists as priests
and economists as dentists is separate from the heterodox-orthodox distinction.
Orthodox economics, when properly used, can both serve a radical function
and help inform everyday decisions.
You might object here that my distinction is an idiosyncratic one. Certainly,
economists as dentists earn less than economists as priests: I know as I've
done both. But there are reasons for that, which have little to do with
economists' social utility.
* OK, I do it sometimes – but only to keep my editor happy.
"... Refining runs increased sharply, particularly on the U.S. Gulf Coast, the main refining hub in the United States. While end-year refinery activity tends to increase, this was larger than expected. ..."
"Oil prices fall on big build in U.S. gasoline, distillate stocks"
By David Gaffen...NEW YORK...Jan 5, 2017...12:10pm EST
"Oil prices slipped on Thursday after a surprisingly large increase in U.S. inventories of
gasoline and distillates, slamming the brakes on an early rally on news that Saudi Arabia had
started talks with customers about reducing crude sales.
U.S. crude stocks fell sharply to end the year, the Energy Information Administration said,
with a draw of 7 million barrels, but stocks of gasoline and distillates surged as refiners ramped
up production to reduce crude inventories, a typical year-end practice to avoid higher taxes.
Refining runs increased sharply, particularly on the U.S. Gulf Coast, the main refining hub
in the United States. While end-year refinery activity tends to increase, this was larger than
expected.
"The magnitude of the products changes were much larger than expected and overwhelming somewhat
supportive crude data," said Scott Shelton, energy specialist at ICAP in Durham, North Carolina.
The big boost in product inventories was seen as bearish, wiping out a rally that had pushed
U.S. crude prices to a high of $54.12 on the day, and dropped U.S. gasoline margins to two-week
lows..."
"The arguments are well known, but worth repeating. Tariffs by themselves may indeed reduce
imports, increase the demand for domestic goods, and increase output (although, even then, as
pointed out by Robert Mundell more than fifty years ago, the exchange rate may appreciate enough
to lead to lower output in the end).
But the "by themselves" assumption is just not right: Tariffs imposed by the United States
would most likely lead to a tariff war and thus decrease exports.
And the decrease in imports and exports would not be a wash. On the demand side, higher import
prices would lead the Fed to increase interest rates further. On the supply side, and in my opinion
more importantly, the tariffs would put into question global supply chains, disrupt production
and trade, and decrease productivity. The effects might be hard to quantify, but they would be
there."
"the collision of expansionary fiscal and counter-cyclical monetary policy will result in an
appreciated dollar. How much more appreciated?"
Blanchard and Chinn are simply noting what we have all learned from the great Robert Mundell
some 50 plus years ago. I get that Peter Navarro never grasped these concepts but it seems certain
readers of this blog have not either.
"... Anecdotally, in my manufacturing business, we are under no pressure to give any pay rises and have not been so since 2008. We can get as many [overseas] skilled workers as we need within a few days via agencies, though sadly and inevitably, we've seen the total collapse of apprenticeships, the local college has closed its vocational courses and the industry training boards have all closed too. Since we no longer train anyone, its axiomatic that we now rely on immigrants to fill factory floor positions. ..."
"... That's exactly the plan with Conservatives and New Labour: an underclass and working class composed of foreign indentured workers, like in Dubai. The ravenous middle classes of southern England are very pleased with that and cheer on the plantation economy, in which they think will be gentry. ..."
"... If employers know they can get away with making much bigger profits hiring illegal immigrants and not really checking their papers, they will, and the immigrants will rush in. ..."
"... The current mass migrations have been as fast and large and those of that era, with 15-25% of the working age population of countries like Poland (large) or Lithuania (small) moving to the UK (and Germany). ..."
James Bloodworth makes an important point
here which I fear that some of his
interlocutors
don't fully appreciate. He writes:
There does exist a discernible bien pensant willingness to pretend that immigration
has no impact whatsoever on worker-employer relations it is precisely the unwillingness on the
part of liberals to acknowledge the challenges for the working class that migration brings that
is rendering the political climate gradually more inhospitable to those who want to find solutions
that do not involve sealing off Britain's borders.
The error of which James accuses liberals here is in fact an old one. Liberals of both left and
right have for decades been blind to the importance of class struggle. Marx
spoke
of the "hidden abode of production" precisely because liberals did not want to leave "the realm of
freedom, equality, property and Bentham" to see what the labour process was really like. Both Keynes
and the neoclassicals effaced classical economists' concern with the distribution of incomes between
wages and profits. Classical liberals have long
underplayed the importance and ubiquity of workplace
coercion . And one of New Labour's biggest failings was its
managerialism and
acquiescence in the growing wealth and power of the 1%.
From this perspective, liberals who are reluctant to acknowledge immigration's impact upon worker-employer
relations are making the same mistake they always have.
Which poses the question. Given that James is right to say that spreadsheets and pious lectures
haven't assuaged workers' concerns about the impact of immigration upon the balance of class power,
how might we better address the problem?
First, we should note that immigration and
globalization (pdf ) are – at
most – only one of
many factors which are hurting lower-paid workers. Other forces include: austerity;
power -biased
technical change; the decline of trades unions; the
productivity slowdown;
financialization (pdf) ; and a meaner welfare state.
The answer to this set of problems is to increase workers' bargaining power – which requires,
among other things, policies such as stronger aggregate demand and greater redistribution.
Should immigration controls be part of this package? Perhaps not. Even if we grant that immigration
is a problem for the low-paid, it doesn't follow that closing borders will be a great help. The idea
that remedies must resemble causes is a
fallacy , of the sort that quack doctors in medieval times committed.
In fact, such controls would bring with them other problems:
- They'd require us to leave the single market which might well depress exports and hence
incomes.
- In practice, tough immigration controls would bear upon soft
targets such as students and
innocent people which wouldn't help workers.
- If we impose immigration controls, so will other European countries on British people.
This will worsen our job prospects.
- Border controls carry a deadweight cost. Who's going to pay the taxes to pay for border
guards?
Quite simply, immigration controls cost money. Given that
most people aren't willing to pay to reduce immigration, it should therefore be possible to persuade
some of them of the case for relatively open borders.
James is, I fear, right to say that the immigration debate has not been handled well by the left.
But it need not be so.
"Who's going to pay the taxes to pay for border guards?"
That's a red herring: economic immigrants are not like spies that come to the UK with pockets
full of cash and their only problem is to slip past the border.
the vast majority of economic immigrants want to find jobs that pay better than in their source
country.
Perhaps our blogger has forgotten that all it takes to stop economic immigration is to make
sure that employers don't hire them in the target country, legally or in the black economy, that
is to enforce existing laws, which is very very easy and cheap if there is political will.
Even so the best way to stop economic immigration is to invest in the source countries creating
local jobs there (immigration from Germany or France happens but it is obviously not economic),
but obviously property and business owners in the target countries don't benefit from that, so
immigration is the issue.
"Anecdotally, in my manufacturing business, we are under no pressure to give any pay rises and
have not been so since 2008. We can get as many [overseas] skilled workers as we need within a
few days via agencies, though sadly and inevitably, we've seen the total collapse of apprenticeships,
the local college has closed its vocational courses and the industry training boards have all
closed too. Since we no longer train anyone, its axiomatic that we now rely on immigrants to fill
factory floor positions."
"I once had a temp job as receptionist at a factory in Glasgow, a city not famous for its endemic
labour shortages. The people on the production line were, to a man and woman, Polish. This was
neither coincidence nor a result of open competition against lazy, too-expensive locals: staffing
had been outsourced to an agency, guaranteeing the firm so many man hours a week without the risk
of building up long-term employment rights to any given worker.
A Glaswegian guy came in with
his cv one day, and was explicitly turned away because he didn't speak Polish and wouldn't be
able to follow instructions on the floor.
The agency rep (also Polish) supplied labour to several other businesses and was not slow to discipline
her people for minor infractions of timekeeping or whatever. She was under pressure from both
ends - it wasn't just that lost half hours added up to impact her quota, a free hand with summary
dismissal also helped make room for the newstarts who arrived every week from Poland and for whom
she had to find work."
And so many other random episodes...
Perhaps reading "This London" by Benjamin Judah would help to understand how the low-income
labour market really works in some important areas of the country.
"Perhaps our blogger has forgotten that all it takes to stop economic immigration is to make sure
that employers don't hire them in the target country, legally or in the black economy,"
As demonstrated by the Calais camps for third world illegal immigrants: why do they risk their
life to cross the Channel to come to the UK? After all France is a rich, safe country like the
UK, with similar or better low-end wages.
The answer is simple: they know it is much easier to get jobs and hide in the UK than in France
because New Labour and Conservative governments don't enforce immigration laws against employers,
except for a few show-cases, because their affluent southern middle and upper-middle class voting
bases love cheap servants and cheap hired help.
Anyhow the "money quote" form JamesB's piece is the final one of course:
"but if the people who toil in British factories have no say over the political direction of
the country they live and work in, it will invariably create a distorted politics in which the
only voters are middle class voters. Universal suffrage will, in practice, no longer exist."
That's exactly the plan with Conservatives and New Labour: an underclass and working class
composed of foreign indentured workers, like in Dubai. The ravenous middle classes of southern
England are very pleased with that and cheer on the plantation economy, in which they think will
be gentry.
"He said that benefit claimants needed to compete for jobs with migrant workers, many from Eastern
Europe. He went on: "We cannot reasonably ask hard-working families to pay for the unwillingness
of some to take responsibility to engage in the labour market.""
Another one said that without the many immigrants working for low-wage jobs in the NHS its
labour costs would rise, requiring NHS budget increases funded by politically unacceptable higher
taxes on the middle classes.
Also if we want to implement a JG or higher basic income that applies to anyone invited in the
country then we need immigration controls ("meaner welfare state.")
Unfortunately there is little sign of any main party offering more constructive alternatives to
fortress Britain. Blissex may be right about the explanation. Certain classes have things to loose
and not a lot to gain. But then people like Hutton cannot be surprised if the voters abandon his
party when his party abandons them. Or Miliband either...etc
I love your blog which I've been reading for years.
While your posts usually are skeptical of conventional wisdom, I think one thing you're absolutely
conventional on is that competition with immigrants has only a trivial impact on compensation.
There's a standard argument made by well-informed liberals, which goes something like this:
"Here is a study of the effect of immigration on wages during the natural experiment when the
UK was open to new EU members and France etc were not. Wages only dropped slightly for unskilled
workers. Therefore everything is fine."
But one thing even economists know is that wages are STICKY. Workers really, really, really
do not like to see their wages fall. The fact that in a growing economy wages fell at all doesn't
seem to me to indicate "nothing to see here", they indicate something huge to see here. Given
wage stickiness, the effect of competition with immigrants is likely to be long-term wage stagnation,
not immediate and obvious wage falls. That's exactly what we've seen, and is much harder to detect
statistically.
Moreover there are other factors than just overall wages.
1. Precarity. Immigrants are often willing to accept short-term contracts, zero-hours and more
precarious conditions than native-born workers. According to the FT, immigrants have utterly revolutionized
our economy this way. Liberals seem to have their own version of Schrodinger's Immigrant: one
who utterly transforms our economy by taking previously unacceptable conditions, but doesn't worsen
things for native-born workers by doing so.
2. Housing. Immigrants are often single, or support families overseas where the cost of living
is cheaper. They therefore only need small or even shared rooms, when a native worker who wants
to support a family needs much more space. Immigrants may therefore contribute to the housing
crisis, in that employers no longer need to pay wages sufficient for workers to house a family.
3. Wage rise mechanisms. Employers really, really, really do not like to see wages rise. When
they're forced to, it's often in response to a shortage of skills in a particular area. With mass
immigration of highly mobile workers, there are fewer shortages which could break the mechanism
by which wages usually rise.
Overall, I think the conventional wisdom may be greatly underestimating how much competition
with the new waves of EU immigrants has harmed native-born workers.
Re "the best way to stop economic immigration is to invest in the source countries creating
local jobs there". The evidence (not anecdata) suggests the opposite. Investing in a developing
economy improves the skills of local workers, making them more marketable abroad, and simultaneously
raises incomes, giving skilled workers the wherewithal to mirate to developed economies with higher
wages.
Re "why do they risk their life to cross the Channel to come to the UK? After all France is
a rich, safe country like the UK, with similar or better low-end wages". Because France has a
national ID card scheme and without an ID ('sans papiers') it is very difficult to get a job in
the formal economy (perversely, this explains why the French black economy is larger than that
of the UK).
On top of this, the UK has weakly enforced laws. The 'right to work' checks by corporates are
often outsourced to recruitment agencies who have a conflict of interest, while SMEs often lack
the interest and/or skills to properly check. The UK has a reputation as being a relatively easy
place to find work (or start a business). Ironically, this "truth" has been amplified over the
years by media tales of the state being a "soft touch" and incompetent at securing our borders.
"people like Hutton cannot be surprised if the voters abandon his party when his party abandons
them."
People like Hutton are more delighted than surprised by that, because it has happened by them
giving up the vote, because "There Is No Alternative". For the neoliberals in any party it is
very nice when the lower income servant classes either just stop voting or vote automatically
for anybody with a red rosette, even when that anybody is Tristram Hunt or Stephen Twigg, or cannot
vote because they are immigrants.
The mandelsonians are rather more terrified of losing the votes of the ravenous rentier middle
classes of the south than those of the lower classes:
www.progressonline.org.uk/2011/04/19/purple-and-orange-united-colours-of-coalition/
"Labour is winning votes from disillusioned Lib Dems and its own former supporters who are returning
to the fold, but it still has a mountain to climb in the South East, among the aspirational "conservatory-building
classes" who were key to its previous election victories."
www.theweek.co.uk/election-2015/62452/blair-to-the-rescue-but-does-miliband-need-toxic-tony
""We all know what Tony Blair and Peter Mandelson really think of Ed Miliband," said Watt. "They
think he's abandoned the essential truth which is that Labour needs to champion the conservatory-building
classes"
"The evidence (not anecdata) suggests the opposite. Investing in a developing economy improves
the skills of local workers, making them more marketable abroad, and simultaneously raises incomes,
giving skilled workers the wherewithal to mirate to developed economies with higher wages."
There is something in that, but it is not a big deal. Many people would rather take a lower
salary in their country than migrate, as long as the difference is not huge like 5-10 times as
between Romania and UK; consider the small number of slovenian, portoguese or even greek immigrants
to the UK, where the difference is 2-3 times and living standards are tolerable. Sure there have
been quite a few, but not on the same scale as from the poorest.
Consider also Taiwan or South Korea: massive development, not much outmigration. Sure there
has been a bit of migration to the USA of highly educated people, but nowhere like mass. The same
for Russia or East Germany post-soviet collapse. Most of them remained.
The trick for rich countries would be to invest in poor countries in production for local consumption
with some exports, so rising local living standards motivate people to remain. But that runs directly
counter to the goals of business and property owners in the rich countries, who either want:
* masses of immigrants to push down wages and push up rents and reduce the voting power of
the low-income classes in the rich countries;
* production in the poor countries for export to the rich countries to reduce employment in
the rich countries, especially in unionized industries (in the past of course).
"where the difference is 2-3 times and living standards are tolerable"
That's a bit imprecise, and in that imprecision there is an interesting point: the difference
has to be looked at both at exchange-rate and at PPP, where in poor countries the PPP wage difference
with rich countries is usually much smaller.
Mass migration seems to me to happen when there is opportunity and a large (more than 2-3 times)
difference in PPP wages. There is migration also when just the difference in exchange-rate wages
is large, as those migrants arbitrage the difference (they earn and save in the target country
and then go back and consume in the source country), but usually not mass migration.
"France has a national ID card scheme and without an ID ('sans papiers') it is very difficult
to get a job in the formal economy"
Spain and Italy have identity cards too and illegal immigrants go there in large numbers...
Focusing on ID cards or border controls means making the same mistake: focusing on stopping
the immigrants instead of the reason why they immigrate, that is employers (the "watering hole")
giving them jobs.
If employers know they can get away with making much bigger profits hiring illegal immigrants
and not really checking their papers, they will, and the immigrants will rush in.
PS there have been a couple of show-cases in the UK where some employers were thrown under
the bus for accepting obviously fake papers, but on the whole the UK cash-in-hand or "we are not
forgery experts" side of the economy has ballooned with the happy acquiescence of the political
authorities.
"the happy acquiescence of the political authorities"
Consider as a small part of this all the rentier middle class people who get effort-free tax-free
income from renting bunk beds in their sheds or council houses to immigrants cash-in-hand: that
breaks several laws, but enforcement is rather sparse, but for the usual show-cases where a few
are thrown under the bus for the sake of appearances. Enforcement would be very easy and cheap,
given the all-pervasive nature of surveillance in the UK, and the availability of neighbours to
snitch, but it would be quite unpopular with the "aspirational "conservatory-building classes"".
And enforcement of "petty" tax-"avoidance" would be quite difficult to square with a "soft-touch"
on large scale episodes as in:
www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/labour-fears-corbyn-will-be-seen-as-unambitious-3tww86v5n
"Labour MPs have raised concerns that Jeremy Corbyn's rhetoric on tax avoidance could appear anti-aspiration.
A senior shadow cabinet source said the party leader was in danger of overreaching himself in
his criticism of David Cameron for investing in Blairmore, the fund set up in an offshore tax
haven in the Bahamas by his father Ian."
We live in an era in which "Labour" MPs reckon that taxing rentiers looks anti-aspiration;
that is a measure of the times.
Re migration flows, you have consider three things: numbers relative to home population; that
congregation can make immigrant groups invisible to much of a country; and that dispersion across
multiple destination countries can do likewise.
For example: Slovenia is very small (and Slovenes are routinely mistaken for other nationalities);
a 1/4 of the Portuguese in the UK live around Vauxhall and Stockwell; and about 4% of the Greek
population have emigrated since 2008 but to a lot of different countries (many with existing congregations),
e.g. the US, UK, Germany and Australia.
Taiwan is a special case because of its relationship with the mainland, but Korea has seen
plenty of emigration historically, notably to America and Japan. The UK Korean community is another
example of "congregational invisibility", with many to be found in New Malden (betwee Wimbledon
and Kingston).
After 1989, lots of East Germans "emigrated" to what was the old West Germany. To say that
they have remained in (a unified) Germany rather misses the point. As for the Russians, many of
them have emigrated but they've preferred to go to Germany (often backfilling "Ossis") and former
Soviet republics. Relatively few have made it as far as Kensington.
The point is that we are living in an era of unprecedented mass movement (into cities as much
as between countries). This is a global phenomenon caused by rising living standards, falling
transport costs and the tendency of technology (which includes learning English) to make skills
more transferrable. This process isn't a deliberate conspiracy by capitalists, so much as the
working of capital itself, so it cannot be arrested by policy or bought off by Western investment.
"we are living in an era of unprecedented mass movement (into cities as much as between countries)"
That relies on a rather narrow view of "era": there have been mass migrations in less recent
decades, from Turkey to Germany, from southern Italy to northern Italy and Switzerland and Germany,
from Spain to France and Germany.
The current mass migrations have been as fast and large and those of that era, with 15-25%
of the working age population of countries like Poland (large) or Lithuania (small) moving to
the UK (and Germany).
But the earlier mass migrations happened while demand was booming, so they were about genuinely
extending the labor supply, while the current mass migrations seems aimed at replacing "lazy,
uppity, exploitative" native workers instead.
Part of the issue is that those "lazy, uppity, exploitative" native workers want it both ways:
no "EU contributions" for investment creating jobs in poor EU countries to keep their workers
there, and no immigration to the UK either. This maximalism only plays into the hands of the New
Labour and Conservative neoliberals.
"... IN JULY 1995, Tony Blair flew halfway round the world to cement his relationship with Rupert Murdoch at a News Corporation conference. Introducing him, the media tycoon joked: "If the British press is to be believed, today is all part of a Blair-Murdoch flirtation. If that flirtation is ever consummated, Tony, I suspect we will end up making love like two porcupines - very carefully." ..."
Murdoch's courtship of Blair finally pays off
By Fran Abrams and Anthony Bevins
IN JULY 1995, Tony Blair flew halfway round the world to cement his relationship with Rupert
Murdoch at a News Corporation conference. Introducing him, the media tycoon joked: "If the British
press is to be believed, today is all part of a Blair-Murdoch flirtation. If that flirtation is
ever consummated, Tony, I suspect we will end up making love like two porcupines - very carefully."
For Mr Blair, the relationship bore fruit when he was elected with the key support of the Sun.
But Mr Murdoch had to wait until yesterday for full satisfaction when No 10 launched a passionate
attack on his critics after the Lords passed an anti-Murdoch amendment to the Competition Bill.
A year earlier, few Labour MPs would have believed such a scene was possible....
"... "Neoliberalism is a policy model of social studies and economics that transfers control of economic factors to the private sector from the public sector .Neoliberal policies aim for a laissez-faire approach to economic development. ..."
"... neoliberal is a corporatist scam to make you think they are liberal because they do not want to defund planned parenthood. ..."
The term neoliberal is often to smear certain liberals who actually try to do economic analysis
but what does this term mean? One definition is found here:
"Neoliberalism is a policy model of social studies and economics that transfers control
of economic factors to the private sector from the public sector .Neoliberal policies aim for
a laissez-faire approach to economic development.
I'll not speak for others but both of these ideas are things I would oppose. So who are
the neoliberals per this link? Thatcher and Reagan. Hayek and Milton Friedman. That does not
sound like what I believe. As far as the financial deregulation we saw almost a generation
ago. I said back then that this was a mistake.
No – if this is what a neoliberal is, I'm not in this camp at all. Of course some people
around here toss out the term to avoid a real discussion of the issues.
I think some people use it, obtusely, as if it were a relative term without real meaning.
If you aren't as liberal as the True Liberals (tm), or ever expressed disagreement with
Bernie Sanders specifically, then you are a "neoliberal." Because, just because.
ilsm -> pgl... , -1
Get on.
neoliberal is a corporatist scam to make you think they are liberal because they do not
want to defund planned parenthood.
"... Sanders responded with an attack on what he called "casino capitalism," an economic system that largely rewards the very rich and leaves the poor and middle class behind. He said the United States should be more like Scandinavian countries, which provide larger safety nets for their populations. ..."
"... "When you look around the world, you see every other major country providing health care to all people as a right, except the United States," Sanders said. "You see every other major country saying to moms that, when you have a baby, we're not gonna separate you from your newborn baby, because we are going to have -- we are gonna have medical and family paid leave, like every other country on Earth. ..."
"... "Those are some of the principles that I believe in, and I think we should look to countries like Denmark, like Sweden and Norway, and learn from what they have accomplished for their working people." ..."
"... Clinton fired back with a defense of capitalism as a concept. First she redefined it - capitalism, she said, is about entrepreneurs being able to start small businesses - and then she said America must save it from itself. "We are not Denmark," she told Sanders. "I love Denmark." ..."
"... Scarred by the Great Recession and 25 years of middle-class wage stagnation, a majority of Americans now see the economy as stacked against people like them. They're still angry at Wall Street after the financial crisis, and, particularly on issues such as family leave, many of them look fondly upon policies like Denmark's. ..."
"... These trends have continued under the recovery overseen by a Democratic president, Barack Obama. As they have, Democratic politicians have elevated inequality and middle-class stagnation to the top of their economic agendas. There's a real debate on the role of the free market in addressing those issues. It comes down to the question of whether capitalism needs to be fixed up, or overhauled completely. The difference between fixing and overhauling is the main policy difference between Clinton and Sanders, as the debate showed. ..."
Why Bernie Sanders loves Denmark but Hillary Clinton doesn't
By Jim Tankersley October 13, 2015
Raise your hand if you had "Hillary Clinton defends capitalism, and/or criticizes Denmark"
in your office pool for the first on-stage debate fight of the Democratic primaries. That's right
- you didn't. But Clinton's extolling of the free-market economic system, and her critique of
Democratic socialism, was her first open attack on the man closest to her in the polls, Sen. Bernie
Sanders of Vermont. It showed an important fault line in this primary campaign.
The debate opened with the moderator, CNN's Anderson Cooper, smacking each of the five candidates
on stage with her or his biggest perceived vulnerability in this race. For Sanders, it was his
long and proud identification as a socialist, a term that, Cooper said, half of Americans find
disqualifying in a candidate for president. "How can any kind of socialist win a general election
in the United States?" Cooper asked.
Sanders responded with an attack on what he called "casino capitalism," an economic system
that largely rewards the very rich and leaves the poor and middle class behind. He said the United
States should be more like Scandinavian countries, which provide larger safety nets for their
populations.
"When you look around the world, you see every other major country providing health care to
all people as a right, except the United States," Sanders said. "You see every other major country
saying to moms that, when you have a baby, we're not gonna separate you from your newborn baby,
because we are going to have -- we are gonna have medical and family paid leave, like every other
country on Earth.
"Those are some of the principles that I believe in, and I think we should look to countries
like Denmark, like Sweden and Norway, and learn from what they have accomplished for their working
people."
Clinton fired back with a defense of capitalism as a concept. First she redefined it - capitalism,
she said, is about entrepreneurs being able to start small businesses - and then she said America
must save it from itself. "We are not Denmark," she told Sanders. "I love Denmark."
"We would be making a grave mistake to turn our backs on what built the greatest middle class
in the history of the world," she said.
That this is a real debate in a major political party in the United States reflects several
changes in the economy, and one big shift among Democratic voters.
Scarred by the Great Recession and 25 years of middle-class wage stagnation, a majority of
Americans now see the economy as stacked against people like them. They're still angry at Wall
Street after the financial crisis, and, particularly on issues such as family leave, many of them
look fondly upon policies like Denmark's.
These trends have continued under the recovery overseen by a Democratic president, Barack Obama.
As they have, Democratic politicians have elevated inequality and middle-class stagnation to the
top of their economic agendas. There's a real debate on the role of the free market in addressing
those issues. It comes down to the question of whether capitalism needs to be fixed up, or overhauled
completely. The difference between fixing and overhauling is the main policy difference between
Clinton and Sanders, as the debate showed.
Yes, I know Peter Peterson * is a major source of employment in Washington and that the Washington
Post editors and many pundits would have to look for substantive issues to talk about if they couldn't
whine about the debt, but really it is time for these folks to grow up. The immediate provocation
here is Steven Rattner's New York Times column * giving "2016 in Charts."
Most of the charts are actually quite interesting and useful, but then he ends the piece with
a tirade about the prospects for the national debt under a Trump administration. Rattner warns:
"These huge tax giveaways - along with Mr. Trump's promises to increase infrastructure spending
and not touch Social Security and Medicare - would blow up the deficit and add $4 trillion to the
national debt over the next 10 years over and above current projections."
Just to be clear, there is no reason to be giving more money to Donald Trump's billionaire friends
as he proposes, but the argument is not that it will "blow up" the deficit and add to the debt. The
argument is that this money could be much better used educating our children, improving our infrastructure,
and making health care affordable, among other things.
The debt stuff is just silliness that we really need to get over. The problem of an actually excessive
debt would show itself in high interest rates and high inflation rates. Have you checked those measures
lately? Long-term interest rates are still way below their levels from the late 1990s when the government
was running surpluses. And inflation remains persistently below the Fed's 2.0 percent target and
in recent months has edged downward. (And, for those keeping score at home, the government's ratio
of interest payments to GDP is near a post-World War II low.)
Furthermore, the whole focus on the debt encourages sloppy thinking that has no place in serious
policy discussions. The government makes obligations for us all the time that don't take the form
of explicit debt. Donald Trump wants to have private companies spend a trillion dollar building infrastructure
that they will then recoup in tolls. How do these tolls differ from taxes? So we would be doing bad
things to our kids if we financed infrastructure with debt, but then taxed to repay the bonds, but
if private companies charge the same amount (most likely much more) in tolls, everything is cool?
To take a much more important example, grants of patent and copyright monopolies are ways in which
the government finances innovation and creative work. We pay $430 billion a year for prescription
drugs that would likely cost around $60 billion in a free market without patents and related protection.
(Yes, you can read more in my [free] book, "Rigged." *** ) If the government imposed a tax of $370
billion a year on drugs being sold in a free market the deficit hawks would be yelling and screaming
about high taxes, but when we give drug companies a legal monopoly so that they can add this amount
to the price of drugs it's no big deal?
Okay, this is just silliness. We need discussions of the economy that are serious. When people
scream about debt and deficits they are not being serious. The national debt is not a real measure
of anything and folks should know that even if the "experts" don't.
Pete Peterson and the deficit hawks are against public investment. They helped sway Bill Clinton
to balance the budget and lean on the Fed to spur investment.
Which combined with financial deregulation gave us the Tech stock and housing bubble/busts.
Disastrous for the average worker even if the Trumps of the world could buy up assets for cheap
on the downside.
Pete Peterson and the deficit hawks are against public investment. They helped sway Bill Clinton
to balance the budget and lean on the Fed to spur investment.
Which combined with financial deregulation gave us the Tech stock and housing bubble/busts....
[ Important argument, that warrants further development. ]
"They helped sway Bill Clinton to balance the budget and lean on the Fed to spur investment."
Huh?
Fed policy under Greenspan was consistently contractionary after 1994.
Bill Clinton did need much convincing when it came to balancing budgets and neither did Hillary.
Bill was lucky the tech boom came along and he got to ride it...allowing Wall Street Democrats
to rule the Democratic Party for a generation or more.
The deficit Hawk industry always go into hibernation when a GOPster move into the White House.
As Cheney so eloquently stated: "Reagan proved that deficits don't matter". Deficit concerns are
a tool used against Democratic presidents to make sure that the economy doesn't do to well under
their leadership.
Peter K. -> DeDude... , -1
Donkey-elephant simplifications, the truth is more complicated.
Bill Clinton got the budget to surplus in partnership with Newt Gingrich. Hillary bragged about
her husband's economic record - which includes his deficit reduction - and her fiscal plans were
revenue neutral to much acclaim to the wonks.
Of course Bush squandered the surpluses with tax cuts for the rich just as Trump will squander
Obama's years of deficit reduction. Why do the Democrats bother? So they'll look good to the financial
industry and their donors?
No matter the price movements of stocks from here, from an
historical basis, no matter still relatively low interest
rates, this is a distinctly highly priced stock market.
The earnings price ratio is 3.56, the dividend yield is
1.98 or 3.56 + 1.98 = 5.54. An investor should then
anticipate about a 5.54% yearly return over the coming 10
years as long as the price earnings ratio stays about the
same. However, the price earnings ratio is currently among
the highest recorded on an historical basis.
With an anticipated yearly return of 5.54% for stocks over
the coming 10 years, the 10 year Treasury is yielding
2.44%. We have then a risk premium for stocks of 5.54 -
2.44 or 3.10, which is historically among the lowest
recorded.
The 3 month Treasury interest rate is at 0.52%, the 2
year Treasury rate is 1.21%, the 5 year rate is 1.93%,
while the 10 year is 2.44%.
The Vanguard Aa rated short-term investment grade bond
fund, with a maturity of 3.1 years and a duration of 2.6
years, has a yield of 1.91%. The Vanguard Aa rated
intermediate-term investment grade bond fund, with a
maturity of 6.0 years and a duration of 5.5 years, is
yielding 2.71%. The Vanguard Aa rated long-term investment
grade bond fund, with a maturity of 22.8 years and a
duration of 13.2 years, is yielding 3.93%. *
The Vanguard Ba rated high yield corporate bond fund,
with a maturity of 5.8 years and a duration of 4.5 years,
is yielding 4.98%.
The Vanguard unrated convertible corporate bond fund,
with an indefinite maturity and a duration of 4.1 years,
is yielding 1.97%.
The Vanguard A rated high yield tax exempt bond fund,
with a maturity of 17.1 years and a duration of 7.1 years,
is yielding 3.35%.
The Vanguard Aa rated intermediate-term tax exempt bond
fund, with a maturity of 8.5 years and a duration of 5.1
years, is yielding 2.20%.
The Vanguard Government National Mortgage Association
bond fund, with a maturity of 7.0 years and a duration of
4.8 years, is yielding 2.06%.
The Vanguard inflation protected Treasury bond fund,
with a maturity of 8.6 years and a duration of 8.1 years,
is yielding 0.07%.
* Vanguard yields are after cost. Federal Funds rates
are no more than 0.75%.
"... I helped open the door for Wall Street to make even more money than they were already making ..."
"... "The great lie is that the 401(k) was capable of replacing the old system of pensions," said Gerald Facciani, the former head of the American Society of Pension Actuaries. ..."
In the nondescript world of public policy, oopsies don't
get any bigger than this.
In a remarkable story (#) in Tuesday's Wall Street
Journal, several early champions of 401(k)s, the
now-ubiquitous tax-deferred plans that help workers sock
away retirement funds, expressed regrets for what their
efforts later yielded: Private pensions have withered.
Individual workers now shoulder risks that large
corporations once bore. Investment fees chip away at
account owners' returns. The typical American worker is
badly underprepared for old age.
"
I helped open the door for Wall Street to make
even more money than they were already making
," said
benefits consultant Ted Benna - sometimes known, according
the Journal's Timothy W. Martin, as the "father of the
401(k)." "We weren't social visionaries," said former
Johnson & Johnson human-resources executive Herbert
Whitehouse, who helped popularize the plans.
"The
great lie is that the 401(k) was capable of replacing the
old system of pensions," said Gerald Facciani, the former
head of the American Society of Pension Actuaries.
Whoops.
Older Americans' fear of leaving the workforce with
nothing saved surely added to the economic unease that
Donald Trump channeled in his campaign. ...
Instead, a Republican Congress and the incoming Republican
president are preparing to repeal Obamacare and replace it
with individual health savings accounts, or something
else, or perhaps nothing at all. At the least, the new
regime in Washington should heed a lesson from the 401(k)
debacle: When you fiddle with the safety net, you should
consider how people and corporations behave in real life.
...
Herbert Whitehouse was one of the first in the U.S. to
suggest workers use a 401(k). His hope in 1981 was that
the retirement-savings plan would supplement a company
pension that guaranteed payouts for life.
Thirty-five years later, the former Johnson & Johnson
human-resources executive has misgivings about what he
helped start.
What Mr. Whitehouse and other proponents didn't
anticipate was that the tax-deferred savings tool would
largely replace pensions as big employers looked for ways
to cut expenses. Just 13% of all private-sector workers
have a traditional pension, compared with 38% in 1979.
"We weren't social visionaries," Mr. Whitehouse says.
Many early backers of the 401(k) now say they have
regrets about how their creation turned out despite its
emergence as the dominant way most Americans save. Some
say it wasn't designed to be a primary retirement tool and
acknowledge they used forecasts that were too optimistic
to sell the plan in its early days.
Others say the proliferation of 401(k) plans has
exposed workers to big drops in the stock market and high
fees from Wall Street money managers while making it
easier for companies to shed guaranteed retiree payouts.
"The great lie is that the 401(k) was capable of
replacing the old system of pensions," says former
American Society of Pension Actuaries head Gerald Facciani,
who helped turn back a 1986 Reagan administration push to
kill the 401(k). "It was oversold."
Misgivings about 401(k) plans are part of a larger
debate over how best to boost the savings of all
Americans. Some early 401(k) backers are now calling for
changes that either force employees to save more or
require companies to funnel additional money into their
workers' retirement plans. Current regulations provide
incentives to set up voluntary plans but don't require
employees or companies to take any specific action. ...
The advent of 401(k)s gave individuals considerable
discretion as to how and even whether they would save for
retirement. Just 61% of eligible workers are currently
saving, and most have never calculated how much they would
need to retire comfortably, according to the Employee
Benefit Research Institute and market researcher Greenwald
& Associates.
Financial experts recommend people amass at least eight
times their annual salary to retire. All income levels are
falling short. For people ages 50 to 64, the bottom half
of earners have a median income of $32,000 and retirement
assets of $25,000, according to an analysis of federal
data by the New School's Schwartz Center for Economic
Policy Analysis in New York. The middle 40% earn $97,000
and have saved $121,000, while the top 10% make $251,000
and have $450,000 socked away.
Savings gap
And the savings gap is worsening. Fifty-two percent of
U.S. households are at risk of running low on money during
retirement, based on projections of assets, home prices,
debt levels and Social Security income, according to
Boston College's Center for Retirement Research. That is
up from 31% of households in 1983. Roughly 45% of all
households currently have zero saved for retirement,
according to the National Institute on Retirement
Security.
More than 30 million U.S. workers don't have access to
any retirement plan because many small businesses don't
provide one. People are living longer than they did in the
1980s, fewer companies are covering retirees' health-care
expenses, wages have largely stagnated and low interest
rates have diluted investment gains.
"I go around the country. The thing that people are
terrified about is running out of money," says Phyllis C.
Borzi, a U.S. Labor Department assistant secretary and
retirement-income expert.
Some savers underestimate how much they will need to
retire or accumulate too much debt. Lucian J. Bernard is
among those wishing he had a do-over. The 65-year-old
lawyer from Edgewood, Ky., doesn't have much savings
beyond a small company pension and Social Security. He
cashed out a 401(k) in the 1980s to fund law school and
never replenished it. He implores his daughter to start
saving.
"It's a little easier saying it than doing it," he
says.
Defenders of the 401(k) say it can produce an ample
retirement cache if employers provide access to one and
people start saving early enough. People in their 60s who
have been socking away money in 401(k)s for multiple
decades have average savings of $304,000, according to the
Employee Benefit Research Institute and Investment Company
Institute.
"There's no question it worked" for those who committed
to saving, says Robert Reynolds, who was involved in
Fidelity Investments' first sales of 401(k) products
several decades ago.
He considers himself among the success stories. At 64,
he could retire comfortably today after saving for three
decades. "It's a very simple formula," he says. "If you
save at 10% plus a year and participate in your plan, you
will have more than 100% of your annual income for
retirement."
The 401(k) can be traced back to a 1978 decision by
Congress to change the tax code-at line 401(k)-so top
executives had a tax-free way to defer compensation from
bonuses or stock options.
At the time, defined benefit-pension plans, which
boomed in popularity after World War II, were the most
common way workers saved for retirement.
A group of human-resources executives, consultants,
economists and policy experts then jumped on the tax code
as a way to encourage saving. Ted Benna, a benefits
consultant with the Johnson Companies, was one of the
first to propose such a move, in 1980, leading some in the
industry to refer to him as the father of the 401(k).
Selling it to workers was a challenge. Employees could
put aside money tax-free, but they were largely
responsible for their own saving and investment choices,
meaning they could profit or lose big based on markets.
They also took home less money with each paycheck, which
is why 401(k)s were commonly called "salary reduction
plans."
Traditional pension plans, on the other hand, had
weaknesses: Company bankruptcies could wipe them out or
weaken them, and it was difficult for workers to transfer
them if they switched employers.
Companies embraced the 401(k) because it was less
expensive and more predictable to fund than pensions.
Company pay-ins ended when an employee left or retired.
Employees, for their part, were drawn to an option that
could provide more than a company's pension ever would.
Two bull-market runs in the 1980s and 1990s pushed 401(k)
accounts higher.
Economist Teresa Ghilarducci, director of the Schwartz
Center for Economic Policy Analysis, says she offered
assurances at union board meetings and congressional
hearings that employees would have enough to retire if
they set aside just 3% of their paychecks in a 401(k).
That assumed investments would rise by 7% a year.
"There was a complete overreaction of excitement and
wow," says Kevin Crain, who as a young executive at
Fidelity Investments in the 1990s recalled complaints
about some of its funds underperforming the S&P 500.
"People were thinking: Forget that boring pension plan."
Two recessions in the 2000s erased those gains and
prompted second thoughts from some early 401(k) champions.
Markets have since recovered, but many savers are still
behind where they need to be. ...
Donald Trump sure
seems like he's serious about starting some trade wars
Wall Street should take Trump more literally.
Updated by Matthew Yglesias
Jan 4, 2017, 8:30am EST
Many people are in the habit of not taking Donald Trump literally, and that appears to include
investors on Wall Street who have responded to Trump's election with the sort of stock price boom
you would have expected from the election of a completely orthodox free marketer like Jeb Bush or
Marco Rubio.
Trump has said, many times, that he favors a drastic revision of American trade policy aimed at
making it much more difficult for companies to manufacture products in foreign markets (especially
China) and then sell them to American consumers. This would, if he pulled it off, be a huge deal
for the American economy - dramatically boosting the fortunes of some companies, but potentially
crippling others, raising prices of many goods and inviting retaliatory measures that would harm
American exports.
As much as Wall Street appears to believe this is just talk, Trump is putting his words quietly
into action. Appointments to a range of lower-profile executive branch positions strongly suggest
that he is likely to pursue a fairly aggressive policy of trade protectionism.
He even appears to be thinking seriously about how to structure the policymaking process. In the
context of a Republican Party that remains mostly invested in a pro-business approach to trade policy,
this is exactly what Trump would need to do to unleash a protectionist agenda. Trade wars, in short,
are almost certainly coming soon - though the actual consequences are difficult to project.
The Seven Stages of Establishment Backlash: Corbyn/Sanders Edition
By Glenn Greenwald
The British political and media establishment incrementally lost its collective mind over the
election of Jeremy Corbyn as leader of the country's Labour Party, and its unraveling and implosion
show no signs of receding yet. Bernie Sanders is nowhere near as radical as Corbyn; they are not
even in the same universe. But, especially on economic issues, Sanders is a more fundamental, systemic
critic than the oligarchical power centers are willing to tolerate, and his rejection of corporate
dominance over politics, and corporate support for his campaigns, is particularly menacing. He is
thus regarded as America's version of a far-left extremist, threatening establishment power.
For those who observed the unfolding of the British reaction to Corbyn's victory, it's been fascinating
to watch the D.C./Democratic establishment's reaction to Sanders' emergence replicate that, reading
from the same script. I personally think Clinton's nomination is extremely likely, but evidence of
a growing Sanders movement is unmistakable. Because of the broader trends driving it, this is clearly
unsettling to establishment Democrats - as it should be.
A poll last week found that Sanders has a large lead with millennial voters, including young women;
as Rolling Stone put it: "Young female voters support Bernie Sanders by an expansive margin." The
New York Times yesterday trumpeted that, in New Hampshire, Sanders "has jumped out to a 27 percentage
point lead," which is "stunning by New Hampshire standards." The Wall Street Journal yesterday, in
an editorial titled "Taking Sanders Seriously," declared it is "no longer impossible to imagine the
74-year-old socialist as the Democratic nominee."
Just as was true for Corbyn, there is a direct correlation between the strength of Sanders and
the intensity of the bitter and ugly attacks unleashed at him by the D.C. and Democratic political
and media establishment. There were, roughly speaking, seven stages to this establishment revolt
in the U.K. against Corbyn, and the U.S. reaction to Sanders is closely following the same script:
STAGE 1
: Polite condescension toward what is perceived to be harmless (we think it's really
wonderful that your views are being aired).
STAGE 2
: Light, casual mockery as the self-belief among supporters grows (no, dears, a left-wing
extremist will not win, but it's nice to see you excited).
STAGE 3
: Self-pity and angry etiquette lectures directed at supporters upon realization that
they are not performing their duty of meek surrender, flavored with heavy doses of concern trolling
(nobody but nobody is as rude and gauche online to journalists as these crusaders, and it's unfortunately
hurting their candidate's cause!).
STAGE 4
: Smear the candidate and his supporters with innuendos of sexism and racism by falsely
claiming only white men support them (you like this candidate because he's white and male like
you, not because of ideology or policy or contempt for the party establishment's corporatist,
pro-war approach).
STAGE 5
: Brazen invocation of right-wing attacks to marginalize and demonize, as polls prove
the candidate is a credible threat (he's weak on terrorism, will surrender to ISIS, has crazy
associations, and is a clone of Mao and Stalin).
STAGE 6
: Issuance of grave and hysterical warnings about the pending apocalypse if the establishment
candidate is rejected, as the possibility of losing becomes imminent (you are destined for decades,
perhaps even generations, of powerlessness if you disobey our decrees about who to select).
STAGE 7
: Full-scale and unrestrained meltdown, panic, lashing-out, threats, recriminations,
self-important foot-stomping, overt union with the Right, complete fury (I can no longer in good
conscience support this party of misfits, terrorist-lovers, communists, and heathens).
Britain is well into Stage 7, and may even invent a whole new level (anonymous British military
officials expressly threatened a "mutiny" if Corbyn were democratically elected as prime minister).
The Democratic media and political establishment has been in the heart of Stage 5 for weeks and is
now entering Stage 6. The arrival of Stage 7 is guaranteed if Sanders wins Iowa.
It's both expected and legitimate in elections for the campaigns to harshly criticize one another.
There's nothing wrong with that; we should all want contrasts drawn, and it's hardly surprising that
this will be done with aggression and acrimony. People go to extremes to acquire power: That's just
human nature.
But that doesn't mean one can't find meaning in the specific attacks that are chosen, nor does
it mean that the attacks invoked are immune from critique (the crass, cynical exploitation of gender
issues by Clinton supporters to imply Sanders support is grounded in sexism was particularly slimy
and dishonest given that the same left-wing factions that support Sanders spent months literally
pleading with Elizabeth Warren to challenge Clinton, to say nothing of the large numbers of female
Sanders supporters whose existence was nullified by those attacks).
People in both parties, and across the political spectrum, are disgusted by the bipartisan D.C.
establishment. It's hardly mysterious why large numbers of adults in the U.S. want to find an alternative
to a candidate like Clinton who is drowning both politically and personally in Wall Street money,
who seems unable to find a war she dislikes, and whose only political conviction seems to be that
anything is justifiably said or done to secure her empowerment - just as it was hardly a mystery
why adults in the U.K. were desperate to find an alternative to the craven, war-loving, left-hating
Blairites who have enormous amounts of blood stained indelibly on their hands.
But the nature of "establishments" is that they cling desperately to power, and will attack anyone
who defies or challenges that power with unrestrained fervor. That's what we saw in the U.K. with
the emergence of Corbyn, and what we're seeing now with the threat posed by Sanders. It's not surprising
that the attacks in both cases are similar - the dynamic of establishment prerogative is the same
- but it's nonetheless striking how identical is the script used in both cases.
Bill Clinton branded Jeremy Corbyn 'maddest person in the room', leaked speech reveals
By Joe Watts
Bill Clinton branded Labour's Jeremy Corbyn the "maddest person in the room" in a speech
he gave explaining the resurgence of left-wing politics in Europe and America.
Documents released by Wikileaks show the former President joked that when Mr Corbyn won
his leadership contest, it appeared Labour had just "got a guy off the street" to run the party.
He compared Mr Corbyn's rise to the success of Alexis Tsipras in Greece and Bernie Sanders
in US primaries.
In one section of the speech, Mr Clinton said Labour had disposed of one potentially successful
leader, David Miliband, because they were "mad at him for being part of Tony Blair's government
in the Iraq War".
He went on: "They moved to the left and put his brother in as leader because the British
labor movement wanted it.
"When David Cameron thumped him in the election, they reached the interesting conclusion
that they lost because they hadn't moved far left enough, and so they went out and practically
got a guy off the street to be the leader of the British Labor Party [sic]."
Mr Clinton added: "But what that is reflective of – the same thing happened in the Greek
election – when people feel they've been shafted and they don't expect anything to happen anyway,
they just want the maddest person in the room to represent them." ...
Richard M. Nixon always denied it: to David Frost, to
historians and to Lyndon B. Johnson, who had the strongest
suspicions and the most cause for outrage at his successor's
rumored treachery. To them all, Nixon insisted that he had
not sabotaged Johnson's 1968 peace initiative to bring the
war in Vietnam to an early conclusion. "My God. I would never
do anything to encourage" South Vietnam "not to come to the
table," Nixon told Johnson, in a conversation captured on the
White House taping system.
Now we know Nixon lied. A newfound cache of notes left by
H. R. Haldeman, his closest aide, shows that Nixon directed
his campaign's efforts to scuttle the peace talks, which he
feared could give his opponent, Vice President Hubert H.
Humphrey, an edge in the 1968 election. On Oct. 22, 1968, he
ordered Haldeman to "monkey wrench" the initiative.
The 37th president has been enjoying a bit of a revival
recently, as his achievements in foreign policy and the
landmark domestic legislation he signed into law draw
favorable comparisons to the presidents (and president-elect)
that followed. A new, $15 million face-lift at the Nixon
presidential library, while not burying the Watergate
scandals, spotlights his considerable record of
accomplishments.
Haldeman's notes return us to the dark side. Amid the
reappraisals, we must now weigh apparently criminal behavior
that, given the human lives at stake and the decade of
carnage that followed in Southeast Asia, may be more
reprehensible than anything Nixon did in Watergate.
Nixon had entered the fall campaign with a lead over
Humphrey, but the gap was closing that October. Henry A.
Kissinger, then an outside Republican adviser, had called,
alerting Nixon that a deal was in the works: If Johnson would
halt all bombing of North Vietnam, the Soviets pledged to
have Hanoi engage in constructive talks to end a war that had
already claimed 30,000 American lives.
But Nixon had a pipeline to Saigon, where the South
Vietnamese president, Nguyen Van Thieu, feared that Johnson
would sell him out. If Thieu would stall the talks, Nixon
could portray Johnson's actions as a cheap political trick.
The conduit was Anna Chennault, a Republican doyenne and
Nixon fund-raiser, and a member of the pro-nationalist China
lobby, with connections across Asia.
"! Keep Anna Chennault working on" South Vietnam, Haldeman
scrawled, recording Nixon's orders. "Any other way to monkey
wrench it? Anything RN can do."
Nixon told Haldeman to have Rose Mary Woods, the
candidate's personal secretary, contact another nationalist
Chinese figure - the businessman Louis Kung - and have him
press Thieu as well. "Tell him hold firm," Nixon said.
Nixon also sought help from Chiang Kai-shek, the president
of Taiwan. And he ordered Haldeman to have his
vice-presidential candidate, Spiro T. Agnew, threaten the
CIA director, Richard Helms. Helms's hopes of keeping his
job under Nixon depended on his pliancy, Agnew was to say.
"Tell him we want the truth - or he hasn't got the job,"
Nixon said.
Throughout his life, Nixon feared disclosure of this
skulduggery....
Nixon Tried to Spoil Vietnam Peace Talks to Win 1968
Election
By PETER BAKER
Newly discovered notes by an aide to Richard M. Nixon
appear to confirm suspicions that, while running for
president, he was directly involved in persuading South
Vietnam to resist a peace deal.
January 2, 2016
Nixon Tried to Spoil Johnson's Vietnam Peace Talks in '68,
Notes Show
By PETER BAKER
Richard M. Nixon told an aide that they should find a way
to secretly "monkey wrench" peace talks in Vietnam in the
waning days of the 1968 campaign for fear that progress
toward ending the war would hurt his chances for the
presidency, according to newly discovered notes.
In a telephone conversation with H. R. Haldeman, who would
go on to become White House chief of staff, Nixon gave
instructions that a friendly intermediary should keep
"working on" South Vietnamese leaders to persuade them not to
agree to a deal before the election, according to the notes,
taken by Mr. Haldeman.
The Nixon campaign's clandestine effort to thwart
President Lyndon B. Johnson's peace initiative that fall has
long been a source of controversy and scholarship. Ample
evidence has emerged documenting the involvement of Nixon's
campaign. But Mr. Haldeman's notes appear to confirm
longstanding suspicions that Nixon himself was directly
involved, despite his later denials.
"There's really no doubt this was a step beyond the normal
political jockeying, to interfere in an active peace
negotiation given the stakes with all the lives," said John
A. Farrell, who discovered the notes at the Richard Nixon
Presidential Library for his forthcoming biography, "Richard
Nixon: The Life," to be published in March by Doubleday.
"Potentially, this is worse than anything he did in
Watergate."
Mr. Farrell, in an article in The New York Times Sunday
Review over the weekend, highlighted the notes by Mr.
Haldeman, along with many of Nixon's fulsome denials of any
efforts to thwart the peace process before the election.
His discovery, according to numerous historians who have
written books about Nixon and conducted extensive research of
his papers, finally provides validation of what had largely
been surmise....
"That US-led (funded with the hunger and the blood of all
the world) global order has enabled 70 years of prosperity.
It rests on market-oriented regimes of trade liberalization,
increased capital mobility, and appropriate social-welfare
policies; backed by American security guarantees in Europe,
the Middle East, and Asia, through NATO and various other
alliances."
The "enabled" is as farcical as is the immorality of blood
shed opportunity costs to real people and other treasure
wasted in the "enabling".
It is obvious to me at
least that PE Trump
will force immediate
detente with Russia,
weaken NATO, and
substitute China as
the bogey man to
prepare to battle,
economically,
politically, and
militarily.
Watch
for it.
Of course, that
also entails tossing
US Allies in Europe
under the bus b/c
Putin wants more
influence and control
over nations on his
borders than the USA
and NATO have allowed
following the break up
of the USSR both
economically and
militarily.
Not so sure how the
experienced foreign
policy Hawks, mostly
retired Generals, will
go along with letting
Putin's Russia out of
NATO's cage.
Should be
interesting if Trump
gets them to go along
with is plans to free
Putin and make him and
Russia friends with
the US again.
Pork for defense contractors and WWC workers with little or
no legitimate defense value ... sounds like the kind of thing
Trump will support enthusiastically.
There was not one US
navy carrier on 'patrol' anywhere for the past week.
Littoral Combat Ships are useless too small too little
keel, and no good in open water.
The CVN 78 is a dinosaur...........
Look how those CV/CVN's did off Vietnam for 7 years!
ilsm -> ilsm...
, -1
The faux 'threats' must have decided to be nice to the
empire:
"For the next week, not only will there be no U.S.
Navy aircraft
carrier in the Middle East, but there will be no American
aircraft
carriers deployed at sea anywhere else in the world, despite
a host
Republicans in House Vote to Curtail Power of Ethics Office
By ERIC LIPTON
The vote came as a surprise and apparently without the support of the House speaker or
the majority leader. The full House is scheduled to vote Tuesday.
The move would take away power and independence from an investigative body, and give
lawmakers more control over internal inquiries.
Institutions, Rule of Law, and Civil Rights Deteriorate in Brazil as Government Doubles
Down on Failed Economic Policies
By Mark Weisbrot
When Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff was impeached in May and removed from office in
August, many called it a coup.
The president was not charged with anything that could legitimately be called a crime,
and the leaders of the impeachment appeared, in taped conversations, to be getting rid of
her in order to cut off a corruption investigation in which they and their political allies
were implicated.
Others warned that once starting down this road, further degradation of state
institutions and the rule of law would follow. And that's just what has happened, along
with some of the political repression that generally accompanies this type of regime
change.
On November 4, police raided a school run by the Movimento dos Trabalhadores Rurais Sem
Terra (MST), in Guararema, Săo Paulo. They fired live (not rubber bullet) ammunition and
made a number of arrests, bringing international condemnation. There had previously been
eight arrests of MST organizers in the state of Paraná. The MST is a powerful social
movement that has won land rights for hundreds of thousands of rural Brazilians over the
past three decades, and has also been a prominent opponent of the August coup.
The politicization of the judiciary was already a major problem in the run-up to
Rousseff's removal. Now we have seen further corrosion of institutions when a justice of
the Supreme Court issued an injunction removing Senate President Renan Calheiros because he
had been indicted for embezzlement.
Calheiros defied the order, whereupon the sitting president of the republic, Michel
Temer, negotiated with the rest of the Supreme Court to keep Calheiros in place. The great
fear of Temer and his allies was that Calheiros's removal could have derailed an outrageous
constitutional amendment that would freeze real (inflation-adjusted) government spending
for the next 20 years, which has now been passed by the Congress.
Given that Brazil's population is projected to grow by about 12 percent over the next 20
years, and the population will also be aging, the amendment is an unprecedented long-term
commitment to worsening poverty. It will "place Brazil in a socially retrogressive category
all of its own," noted Philip Alston, the UN special rapporteur on extreme poverty and
human rights, describing the measure as an attack on the poor.
The government's proposed public pension cuts would hit working and poor people the
hardest....
"... Credit creation and the financialization above the consumer level of this new-money creation is an unlimited privlege held by financial system actors, we saw this blatantly in 2000-2006, so IS is demonstrably not true, the amount of available Investment funds Is unlimited. There is no such thing as loanable funds at the macro level, the financial system can make financial positions then manages the cash liquidity (until ... .). ..."
"... Defining currency as a liability on a set of books for a thing called a central bank and talking about Quantity Theories of Money, are all demonstrably weak notions, at keast in huge economies. The approach by China ignores a lot of this theory in practice as they Spend to improve the economic potential of their people, a ka Keynes. They do care about closing the supply gaps in housing and transport, and clean power, sure, but they care more about helping more and more and more chinese to get a connection to a modernizing economy. Sure wish Krugman cared the same way rather than caring fir the cloture of the ISLM theory. He may have been kinder to Sanders and more challenging of Clinton too. ..."
"... Krugman is willing to explain that the US can borrow at low rates to build public goods and other assets and get it paid for by returns, but somehow direct Spending, even using phoney debt processes to push the financing outward as the chinese do (which is simply helicopter money) cant do the same. ..."
Krugman believes deeply in the ISLM model and cant seem to admit that there are stunning implications
to the following :
Credit creation and the financialization above the consumer level of this new-money
creation is an unlimited privlege held by financial system actors, we saw this blatantly in
2000-2006, so IS is demonstrably not true, the amount of available Investment funds Is unlimited.
There is no such thing as loanable funds at the macro level, the financial system can make
financial positions then manages the cash liquidity (until ... .).
Defining currency as a liability on a set of books for a thing called a central bank
and talking about Quantity Theories of Money, are all demonstrably weak notions, at keast in
huge economies. The approach by China ignores a lot of this theory in practice as they Spend
to improve the economic potential of their people, a ka Keynes. They do care about closing
the supply gaps in housing and transport, and clean power, sure, but they care more about helping
more and more and more chinese to get a connection to a modernizing economy. Sure wish Krugman
cared the same way rather than caring fir the cloture of the ISLM theory. He may have been
kinder to Sanders and more challenging of Clinton too.
Krugman is willing to explain that the US can borrow at low rates to build public goods
and other assets and get it paid for by returns, but somehow direct Spending, even using phoney
debt processes to push the financing outward as the chinese do (which is simply helicopter money)
cant do the same.
Right now I see the chinese approaches as undermining credulity to monetary theories while
it is consistent with Keynes not so the extended theories.
And of course I hope I am right for the chinese, no surprise to me if this is the case.
The sky is falling view does come to mind if you believe some of the economic theories, oh
look, so much debt. But as Adair wrote this week,and I commented upon it a year or so ago probably,
if you dont believe in these theoretic tales you can just erase the 'debt' held by the chinese
people via their government when it makes sense, no harm, almost all good.
But I have to say, without the US as its major buyer and without their ability to accumulate
dollar-asset in reserve to the level they have, one wonders if there would be less lattitude.
This raises the question about why Trump continues to voice that the rug will be pulled out soon.
Why? I am pretty sure it isnt because he wants to prove the economic theorests to be right.
China's Market Crash Means Chinese Supergrowth Could Have Only 5 More Years to Run
By Brad DeLong
Now that 90 days have passed, from the Huffington Post from Last August: China's Market Crash
Means Chinese Supergrowth Could Have Only 5 More Years to Run *
Ever since I became an adult in 1980, I have been a stopped clock with respect to the Chinese
economy. I have said--always--that Chinese supergrowth has at most ten more years to run, and
more probably five or less. There will then, I have said, come a crash--in asset values and expectations
if not in production and employment. After the crash, China will revert to the standard pattern
of an emerging market economy without successful institutions that duplicate or somehow mimic
those of the North Atlantic: its productivity rate will be little more than the 2%/year of emerging
markets as a whole, catch-up and convergence to the North Atlantic growth-path norm will be slow
if at all, and political risks that cause war, revolution, or merely economic stagnation rather
than unexpected but very welcome booms will become the most likely sources of surprises....
If you want to put money in China given their still extant massive imbalances ... go right ahead.
I'm still predicting a massive slowdown, if not a crash.
The central government in China has a big warchest and a lot of catchup growth that can keep
it afloat, but at a macro level there simply must be big adjustments (i.e., investment to consumption
demand), which can be put off but not avoided entirely.
Why should an adjustment from investment to consumption cause a massive slowdown or a crash?
[ No matter, after 40 years of an average 9.7% yearly real Gross Domestic Product growth and
8.6% yearly per capita GDP growth, Western analysts been all but unconcerned with how such growth
was managed, especially since no other developing country came anywhere close. Why no other developing
country has come close to matching China in growth, I would think, would make for an important
extensive study, but evidently not. ]
As the global economy enters 2017, economic growth is
running at stronger rates than at any time since 2010,
according to Fulcrum's nowcast models. The latest monthly
estimates (attached here) show that growth has recovered
markedly from the low points reached in March 2016, when
fears of global recession were mounting.
Not only were these fears too pessimistic, they were
entirely misplaced. Growth rates have recently been
running above long-term trend rates, especially in the
advanced economies, which have seen a synchronised surge
in activity in the final months of 2016.
The financial markets have, of course, responded
powerfully to the change in global growth, which was first
picked up by the nowcast models in mid year. As the FT's
John Authers points out in his entertaining article on
Hindsight Capital, the winning trades in the second half
of the year were all linked to the theme of global
recovery and reflation.
Equities outperformed bonds, cyclicals outperformed
defensives in the equity markets, industrial metals rose
relative to precious metals, Japanese equities surged and
German bunds fell back. In all cases, these trades started
to perform well in July, and they enjoyed a powerful
acceleration in November and December, presumably driven
by Donald Trump's election victory as well as stronger
economic data, notably in business and consumer surveys.
The big questions at the start of 2017 are whether the
markets have now fully responded to the reflationary
trends in global economic data, and to expectations of a
policy bias towards stronger growth from the Trump
administration.
Policy and Growth
The key upcoming event on economic policy is, of
course, the incoming US president's inauguration address
on 20 January, when the likely balance between "good
Trump" (tax cuts, infrastructure spending and
deregulation) and "bad Trump" (protection and increased
geopolitical risks, especially with regard to China) will
be reassessed.
Markets certainly seem to be priced for a very
favourable outcome on the US policy mix - perhaps too
favourable. The possibility that Mr Trump will label China
as a "currency manipulator" early in his administration
looms as a serious risk to buoyant financial markets in
coming weeks.
On global growth, however, there has been no sign yet
of any impending slowdown. Consensus forecasts for global
GDP growth were revised downwards early in 2016, with the
largest downgrades coming in the US, where business
investment once again disappointed the optimists. After
February 2016, however, the pattern of downgrades was
broken, and growth forecasts stabilised for the first time
in several years.
In assessing the future of the "reflation trade", it is
important to watch two factors: whether activity nowcasts
are beginning to lose momentum, as they have done
repeatedly during the faltering global economic recovery
after 2009; and whether asset prices cease responding to
good news on activity, suggesting that investors'
expectations have run ahead of themselves.
We have not seen either of these danger signals yet.
The GDP forecasts produced by the nowcast models suggest
that the most likely outcome for the 2017 calendar year is
that consensus GDP forecasts will need to be upgraded, for
the first time in many years. Although we would not place
too much weight on these statistical predictions for more
than a few months ahead, they are just as valid as
mainstream forecasts produced by large-scale econometric
models, or by expert opinion in the financial sector, if
not more so.
Economists have always found it very difficult indeed
to predict major cyclical turning points in activity,
which is why the markets are so sensitive to changes in
incoming data. These are best tracked through the nowcasts.
Growth running above trend, especially in the advanced
economies
The growth rate in global economic activity is
currently running at 4.1 per cent, compared with an
estimated trend rate of 3.8 per cent. This represents a
vast improvement on the growth rates recorded in 2015 and
early 2016, when growth dipped to below 2.5 per cent at
times. As noted in last month's report, the global rebound
since early 2016 has been broadly based, with all the main
regions contributing to the improvement. The breadth of
the acceleration is encouraging, compared with previous
episodes since 2010, when improvements have been more
narrowly based, and have quickly petered out.
In recent months, activity in the advanced economies
has continued to improve markedly, while activity in the
emerging markets has been steady at around trend rates.
The latest estimate for the AEs shows activity growth
running at 2.5 per cent, a rate achieved only rarely
during the post-crash economic expansion.
Meanwhile, the EMs are growing steadily at close to
their 6 per cent trend rate. Recent growth rates have been
about 2 percentage points higher than achieved in 2015.
The EMs have therefore ceased to be a drag on the global
expansion, thanks to stabilisation in Russia and Brazil,
and to above-trend growth following the policy stimulus in
China.
The US leads among the major advanced economies
Within the AE block, the rise in activity growth in the
US late in 2016 has been particularly impressive. Although
this has been evident more in survey data than in "hard"
economic data, the nowcast models have found that surveys
have been reliable early indicators of changes in the
activity growth rates in the past.
Furthermore, according to Jan Hatzius at Goldman Sachs,
financial conditions in the US will remain positive for
growth at least until mid 2017, despite impending
tightening by the Federal Reserve. After that, the likely
fiscal stimulus by the Republicans will begin to support
the economy.
In the eurozone, expansionary monetary policy by the
European Central Bank is set to continue for most of 2017,
and fiscal policy has turned modestly expansionary. In
China, policymakers may rein back the 2016 stimulus to
credit and fiscal policy, but there is unlikely to be any
major reversal of policy ahead of the 19th Communist Party
Congress in the autumn.
Forecasts for 2017 from the nowcast models
Finally, the latest set of forecasts derived from the
nowcast models for 2017 are shown below. As noted above,
these are "statistical" predictions that are not derived
from fully specified macroeconomic models (and therefore
make no attempt to allow for policy changes and other
economic events exogenous to the nowcasts), but they can
be useful in providing a guide to likely revisions to
consensus GDP growth forecasts in the months ahead.
On this occasion, they seem to suggest fairly clearly
that upgrades are more likely than downgrades in the US,
the eurozone and China during the first half of 2017.
If this occurs, there may be further room for the
reflation trades in the financial markets to perform well
for a while longer - unless a protectionist American
president upsets the apple cart.
Fake News on Germany's Unemployment Rate at the New
York Times
Alright, that is not entirely fair, but when the NYT
told readers * that Germany's unemployment rate is 6.0
percent it seriously misled readers. The issue is that
this figure refers to Germany's unemployment rate as
calculated by Germany's government. This measure counts
workers who are employed part-time, but want full-time
jobs, as being unemployed. By contrast, the standard
measure of the unemployment rate in the United States
counts these workers as being employed.
This would be reasonable if the German government
measure was the only one available, but it isn't. The
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
calculates a harmonized unemployment rate that is
essentially the same as the unemployment rate generally
used for the United States. By this measure ** Germany's
unemployment rate is just 4.0 percent.
The NYT can be partially forgiven since this was a
Reuters story that it made available on its web site. (I
don't know if it ran in the print edition.) Still, it
would not be hard to add a sentence either explaining the
difference or alternatively including the OECD measure.
In this same vein, and it's a new year, let me also
harp on the practice of printing other country's growth
rates as quarterly figures. While the rate of GDP growth
is always expressed as an annual rate in the United
States, most other countries express their growth as a
quarterly rate. Typically this raises the U.S. growth rate
by a factor of four. For example, a 0.5 percent quarterly
growth rate translates into a 2.0 percent annual rate. (To
be precise, the growth rate should be taken to the fourth
power. For low growth rates this will typically be the
same as multiplying by four.)
Anyhow, articles often appear in the NYT and elsewhere
that just print the growth rate as a quarterly rate,
frequently without even pointing out that it is a
quarterly rate. This gives readers an inaccurate
impression of the growth rate in other countries.
It really should not be too much to expect a newspaper
to convert the growth rates in annualized rates. After
all, the reporters are more likely to have the time to do
this than the readers. And, this is supposed to be about
providing information to readers, right?
"On December
30, a Russian government outlet announced that American service companies are scheduled to work on
the Arctic offshore platform Prirazlomnaja for three months this summer – an activity which could
potentially violate U.S. sanctions"
"On December 30, a Russian government outlet announced that American service companies are scheduled
to work on the Arctic offshore platform Prirazlomnaja for three months this summer – an activity
which could potentially violate U.S. sanctions.
The maintenance period itself is unremarkable: parts of Prirazlomnaja's topsides date to 1984,
and the offshore environment above the Arctic Circle is extraordinarily hard on equipment. However,
it is not clear that an American firm could perform the work without a waiver from the U.S. Department
of the Treasury. The platform is owned by Gazprom Neft, and to penalize Russia for the annexation
of Crimea, the Treasury prohibits American firms from providing this firm (and others) with goods,
services or technology for "exploration or production for deepwater, Arctic offshore, or shale projects
that have the potential to produce oil."
If these sanctions are still in place this summer, the unnamed American service companies could
be liable for civil penalties. Recent enforcement actions have led to multimillion-dollar fines for
the most egregious sanctions cases.
There is a possibility, however, that the sanctions might be lifted by the incoming Trump administration,
which will enter office January 20. President-elect Trump's team says that he remains undecided on
whether to lift the Ukraine sanctions program, and his appointee for Secretary of State, ExxonMobil
CEO Rex Tillerson, has a close relationship with the Russian government due to projects that sanctions
now prohibit: he received the Russian Order of Friendship in 2013 for collaboration with Rosneft
on a major Arctic drilling program. Tillerson is a critic of sanctions in general, and his firm still
has billions at stake in Russian joint ventures. Last year, the head of ExxonMobil's Russian operations
said that the company stands ready to return once sanctions are lifted.
Senator Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Foreign Relations Committee, recently told Politico
that he considers Tillerson's nomination "as a clear sign of intent that Trump is going to remove
sanctions." Procedurally, this would only require an executive order from the president – and American
service companies could proceed to Prirazlomnaja as scheduled."
How the Obama Coalition Crumbled, Leaving an Opening for
Trump
Nate Cohn
DEC. 23, 2016
....
Mr. Trump's gains among white working-class voters
weren't simply caused by Democrats staying home on
Election Day.
The Clinton team knew what was wrong from the start,
according to a Clinton campaign staffer and other
Democrats. Its models, based on survey data, indicated
that they were underperforming Mr. Obama in less-educated
white areas by a wide margin - perhaps 10 points or more -
as early as the summer.
The campaign looked back to respondents who were
contacted in 2012, and found a large number of white
working-class voters who had backed Mr. Obama were now
supporting Mr. Trump.
...
Like Mr. Obama, Mr. Trump ran against the establishment
- and against a candidate who embodied it far more than
John McCain or Mr. Romney did. The various allegations
against Mrs. Clinton neatly complemented the notion that
she wasn't out to help ordinary Americans.
Taken together, Mr. Trump's views on immigration,
trade, China, crime, guns and Islam all had considerable
appeal to white working-class Democratic voters, according
to Pew Research data. It was a far more appealing message
than old Republican messages about abortion, same-sex
marriage and the social safety net.
...
Mrs. Clinton's gains were concentrated among the most
affluent and best-educated white voters, much as Mr.
Trump's gains were concentrated among the lowest-income
and least-educated white voters.
She gained 17 points among white postgraduates,
according to Upshot estimates, but just four points among
whites with a bachelor's degree.
There was a similar pattern by income. Over all, she
picked up 24 points among white voters with a degree
making more than $250,000, according to the exit polls,
while she made only slight gains among those making less
than $100,000 per year.
These gains helped her win huge margins in the most
well-educated and prosperous liberal bastions of the new
economy, like Manhattan, Silicon Valley, Washington,
Seattle, Chicago and Boston. There, Mrs. Clinton ran up
huge margins in traditionally liberal enclaves and stamped
out nearly every last wealthy precinct that supported the
Republicans.
Scarsdale, N.Y., voted for Mrs. Clinton by 57 points,
up from Mr. Obama's 18-point win. You could drive a full
30 miles through the leafy suburbs northwest of Boston
before reaching a town where Mr. Trump hit 20 percent of
the vote. She won the affluent east-side suburbs of
Seattle, like Mercer Island, Bellevue and Issaquah, by
around 50 points - doubling Mr. Obama's victory.
Every old-money Republican enclave of western
Connecticut, like Darien and Greenwich, voted for Mrs.
Clinton, in some cases swinging 30 points in her
direction. Every precinct of Winnetka and Glencoe, Ill.,
went to Mrs. Clinton as well.
Her gains were nearly as impressive in affluent
Republican suburbs, like those edging west of Kansas City,
Mo., and Houston; north of Atlanta, Dallas and Columbus,
Ohio; or south of Charlotte, N.C., and Los Angeles in
Orange County. Mrs. Clinton didn't always win these
affluent Republican enclaves, but she made big gains.
But the narrowness of Mrs. Clinton's gains among
well-educated voters helped to concentrate her support in
the coasts and the prosperous but safely Republican Sun
Belt. It left her short in middle-class,
battleground-state suburbs, like those around
Philadelphia, Detroit and Tampa, Fla., where far fewer
workers have a postgraduate degree, make more than
$100,000 per year or work in finance, science or
technology.
Is it useful to continue to post and read Krugman?
[ Surely so and always so. No matter whether I may disagree with an idea or agree as is usually
the case, I learn from Paul Krugman. ]
Libezkova -> anne... , -1
That's true.
Even with this weak post, if we abstract the content from an anti-Trump angle a lot of what
he is saying is true.
His quote
== quote ==
This means that Mr. Trump will be in violation of the spirit, and arguably the letter, of the
Constitution's emoluments clause... But who's going to hold him accountable? Some prominent Republicans
are already suggesting that, rather than enforcing the ethics laws, Congress should simply change
them to accommodate the great man.
And the corruption won't be limited to the very top: The new administration seems set to bring
blatant self-dealing into the center of our political system..., assembling a team of cronies,
choosing billionaires with obvious, deep conflicts of interest for many key positions in his administration.
== end_of_quote ==
But this statement is generally true for all neoliberal administrations starting from Reagan.
Goldman Sacks level of control of Treasury is one of obvious signs of "deep conflicts of interest":
So "Government Sacks" is nothing new. it existed before Trump.
"Trumpistan" is not a bad nickname for neoliberal America, but truth be told Clintonstan
is probably more appropriate. It was Clinton who made important steps in decimating The New Deal.
So all the glory belongs to him.
MSM has already destroyed their credibility long ago, the process just reaches apogee during
the current election cycle, so those presstitutes may well continue enjoying their swimming in
the tabloid cesspool. WaPo is running "sources say" stories nonstop these days, relying upon unverified
parties that are increasingly lacking credibility (power grid hacking fake published by WaPo was
the most recent example).
I believe there is a powerful war lobby within the US government. Members of which would like
a war anywhere, with anyone as there is so much money to be made. They're itching for conflict.
And like in any "stan" MSM seems more than willing to overlook the President's buffoonery.
The imperial arrogance, condescension, self-righteous indignation that drips from Obama administration
alienated so many outside the USA that this is alarming. As the result, in Spain the US tourists
often pretend to be from some other country...
And both parties are so corrupt that their existence undermines the concept of a republic,
making it more and more like a "stan".
Engels Rebuts
Malthus
Thomas Malthus is best-known today for his classic 1789 work, "An Essay on the Principle of
Population," where he predicted that population would eventually outstrip production,
leading to masses of people living at the level of bare subsistence and malnutrition.
Friedrich Engels is perhaps best-known as a co-author of The Communist Manifesto with Karl
Marx, but was also a notable philosopher in his own right. I recently ran across a passage
from the Outlines of a Critique of Political Economy, published in 1844, in which Engels
rebuts Malthus.
Engels offers several interrelated counterarguments. One is that the Malthusian
arguments offers capitalists a rationalization for treating the poor as a "surplus
population" and that "nothing should be done for them except to make their dying of
starvation as easy as possible." Engels calls this "the immorality of the economist brought
to its highest pitch." Instead, Engels argues that there is not a problem of surplus
population, but instead a problem of "surplus wealth, surplus capital and surplus landed
property." Instead, Engels argues that workers produce a surplus. He writes that "every
adult produces more than he himself can consume, that children are like trees which give
superabundant returns on the outlays invested in them ..." In Engels's view, if all the
interests of capital and labor are fused together, so that workers can share in what they
have produced, "overpopulation" will not occur.
Finally, Engels argues that the Malthusian argument neglects the power of science to
increase argues production. He writes: "[T]here still remains a third element which,
admittedly, never means anything to the economist – science – whose progress is as
unlimited and at least as rapid as that of population. ... [S]cience advances in proportion
to the knowledge bequeathed to it by the previous generation, and thus under the most
ordinary conditions also in a geometrical progression. And what is impossible to science?"
It made me smile a bit to contemplate Engels offering a defense of rising output driven by
technological progress (and apparently no need for market-based incentives to raise output)
as a central part of his challenge to Malthus.
Here's an excerpt from Engels's 1844 essay, in which he includes a number of pleasantly
snarky comments about economists in general:
Malthus, the originator of this doctrine, maintains that population is always pressing
on the means of subsistence; that as soon as production increases, population increases in
the same proportion; and that the inherent tendency of the population to multiply in excess
of the available means of subsistence is the root of all misery and all vice. For, when
there are too many people, they have to be disposed of in one way or another: either they
must be killed by violence or they must starve. But when this has happened, there is once
more a gap which other multipliers of the population immediately start to fill up once
more: and so the old misery begins all over again. ... The implications of this line of
thought are that since it is precisely the poor who are the surplus, nothing should be done
for them except to make their dying of starvation as easy as possible, and to convince them
that it cannot be helped and that there is no other salvation for their whole class than
keeping propagation down to the absolute minimum. Or if this proves impossible, then it is
after all better to establish a state institution for the painless killing of the children
of the poor .. whereby each working-class family would be allowed to have two and a half
children, any excess being painlessly killed. Charity is to be considered a crime, since it
supports the augmentation of the surplus population. Indeed, it will be very advantageous
to declare poverty a crime and to turn poor-houses into prisons, as has already happened in
England as a result of the new "liberal" Poor Law.
Am I to go on any longer elaborating this vile, infamous theory, this hideous blasphemy
against nature and mankind? Am I to pursue its consequences any further? Here at last we
have the immorality of the economist brought to its highest pitch. What are all the wars
and horrors of the monopoly system compared with this theory! ...
If Malthus had not considered the matter so one-sidedly, he could not have failed to see
that surplus population or labour-power is invariably tied up with surplus wealth, surplus
capital and surplus landed property. The population is only too large where the productive
power as a whole is too large. The condition of every over-populated country, particularly
England, since the time when Malthus wrote, makes this abundantly clear. These were the
facts which Malthus ought to have considered in their totality, and whose consideration was
bound to have led to the correct conclusion. Instead, he selected one fact, gave no
consideration to the others, and therefore arrived at his crazy conclusion.
The second error he committed was to confuse means of subsistence with [means of]
employment. That population is always pressing on the means of employment – that the number
of people produced depends on the number of people who can be employed – in short, that the
production of labour-power has been regulated so far by the law of competition and is
therefore also exposed to periodic crises and fluctuations – this is a fact whose
establishment constitutes Malthus' merit. But the means of employment are not the means of
subsistence. Only in their end-result are the means of employment increased by the increase
in machine-power and capital. The means of subsistence increase as soon as productive power
increases even slightly. Here a new contradiction in economics comes to light. The
economist's "demand" is not the real demand; his "consumption" is an artificial
consumption. For the economist, only that person really demands, only that person is a real
consumer, who has an equivalent to offer for what he receives. But if it is a fact that
every adult produces more than he himself can consume, that children are like trees which
give superabundant returns on the outlays invested in them – and these certainly are facts,
are they not? – then it must be assumed that each worker ought to be able to produce far
more than he needs and that the community, therefore, ought to be very glad to provide him
with everything he needs; one must consider a large family to be a very welcome gift for
the community. But the economist, with his crude outlook, knows no other equivalent than
that which is paid to him in tangible ready cash. He is so firmly set in his antitheses
that the most striking facts are of as little concern to him as the most scientific
principles.
We destroy the contradiction simply by transcending it. With the fusion of the interests
now opposed to each other there disappears the contradiction between excess population here
and excess wealth there; there disappears the miraculous fact (more miraculous than all the
miracles of all the religions put together) that a nation has to starve from sheer wealth
and plenty; and there disappears the crazy assertion that the earth lacks the power to feed
men. ...
At the same time, the Malthusian theory has certainly been a necessary point of
transition which has taken us an immense step further. Thanks to this theory, as to
economics as a whole, our attention has been drawn to the productive power of the earth and
of mankind; and after overcoming this economic despair we have been made for ever secure
against the fear of overpopulation. We derive from it the most powerful economic arguments
for a social transformation. ... Through this theory we have come to know the deepest
degradation of mankind, their dependence on the conditions of competition. It has shown us
how in the last instance private property has turned man into a commodity whose production
and destruction also depend solely on demand; how the system of competition has thus
slaughtered, and daily continues to slaughter, millions of men. All this we have seen, and
all this drives us to the abolition of this degradation of mankind through the abolition of
private property, competition and the opposing interests.
Yet, so as to deprive the universal fear of overpopulation of any possible basis, let us
once more return to the relationship of productive power to population. Malthus establishes
a formula on which he bases his entire system: population is said to increase in a
geometrical progression – 1+2+4+8+16+32, etc.; the productive power of the land in an
arithmetical progression – 1+2+3+4+5+6. The difference is obvious, is terrifying; but is it
correct? Where has it been proved that the productivity of the land increases in an
arithmetical progression? The extent of land is limited. All right! The labour-power to be
employed on this land-surface increases with population. Even if we assume that the
increase in yield due to increase in labour does not always rise in proportion to the
labour, there still remains a third element which, admittedly, never means anything to the
economist – science – whose progress is as unlimited and at least as rapid as that of
population. What progress does the agriculture of this century owe to chemistry alone –
indeed, to two men alone, Sir Humphry Davy and Justus Liebig! But science increases at
least as much as population.
The latter increases in proportion to the size of the previous generation, science
advances in proportion to the knowledge bequeathed to it by the previous generation, and
thus under the most ordinary conditions also in a geometrical progression. And what is
impossible to science? But it is absurd to talk of over-population so long as "there is
'enough waste land in the valley of the Mississippi for the whole population of Europe to
be transplanted there"; so long as no more than one-third of the earth can be considered
cultivated, and so long as the production of this third itself can be raised sixfold and
more by the application of improvements already known.
Posted by Timothy Taylor at 8:30 AM
Germanic Stagflation said
in reply to ken melvin...
, -1
valley of the Mississippi for the whole population of Europe to be transplanted there";
"
Do you see how gigantic chunks of European population were "transplanted" into the
great plains just before that transplanted population over-farmed the dirt to the extent of
a dust storm that transplanted topsoil from Oklahoma to Connecticut? The dust bowl of the
1930-s? Sure!
You get plenty rainfall on the East Coast. Easy for you to imagine plenty rainfall into
the Mississippi Valley! Enough rainfall to replace wild grass with trees having enough
roots to stabilize the soil. Great plains are nearly a desert just waiting for mankind to
over-farm, loosen topsoil, accelerate erosion enough to create a genuine desert. Is that
what happened to the Sahara during prehistory? Too many farmers?
Earth has never had 7.4 billion hungry mouths to exploit nature towards one gigantic
collapse. Our exploitation of Nature is a bubble, a huge Ponzi about to collapse onto
starving, dying people. No! Your money will be useless in such a World of collapse.
Is it useful to continue to
post and read Krugman?
After his unfair anti-Sanders screeds, his pushing Greece to leave
the euro, and his prediction of a double dip recession (not to mention saying the market
would never recover from Trump) I wonder if he's actually hurting the cause and making
divisions (both intra party and out) worse.
This latest "Stan" rant just
sounds hysterical. He thinks continuing to rant in this fashion is effective and convincing
to the unconvinced?
likbez ->
B.T....
Krugman being a neoliberal
propagandist is very uneven. Currently most posts are below average, that's true and are
marred by strong bias. But he is a talented guy, no question about it.
Sometimes he is still able to produce really brilliant posts, overcoming his neoliberal
tendencies. Or transcending them, if you wish.
Also when made by a talented guy even mistakes can be highly educational. And he writes
very well, indeed.
"... MSM became essentially the neoliberal propaganda machine. Our famously free press in some aspects is now worse than the "yellow press." ..."
"... The ability to check alternative news source is a sign of an educated person. Correlating several sources can usually compensate their unreliability. Limiting yourself to national press in the age of globalization is a sign of a redneck. The problem here is time. But if a person is retired, then not using foreign press is a sign of mental degradation, that's for sure. ..."
"... Even Guardian provides a more objective picture of the events in the USA than national newspapers. And that a neoliberal newspaper, the voice of British Third Way. ..."
"... But real insights usually come from countries that the USA neoliberal elite considers to be adversaries ;-). In this sense, RT is a very valuable source, as BBC was for the Soviet population in the USSR existence days. ..."
"... This is hysterical, because mainline Dems in the media have done nothing since the election but try to undermine its legitimacy by touting a collection of conspiracy theories they can't prove. ..."
They disengaged from the mainstream press because they no longer trust the mainstream press. And
they have a good reason for distrusting the mainstream press. The mainstream press works for the
country's power elite which does things like - just to take a couple of examples, gather up low
income Americans as military cannon fodder to launch wars of murderous aggression based on lies
the mainstream press spreads, or completely break the financial system throwing millions of people
into unemployment and insolvency.
So yeah, not surprising that people are going to drift off into a variety of unreliable alternative
news sources.
"They disengaged from the mainstream press because they no longer trust the mainstream press.
And they have a good reason for distrusting the mainstream press."
Exactly. MSM became essentially the neoliberal propaganda machine. Our famously free press
in some aspects is now worse than the "yellow press."
Especially Bezos Blog (aka WaPo). Good articles still sometimes happen, but the general tone
is the tone of a cheap propaganda outlet.
"So yeah, not surprising that people are going to drift off into a variety of unreliable alternative
news sources."
The ability to check alternative news source is a sign of an educated person. Correlating several
sources can usually compensate their unreliability. Limiting yourself to national press in the
age of globalization is a sign of a redneck. The problem here is time. But if a person is retired,
then not using foreign press is a sign of mental degradation, that's for sure.
Even Guardian provides a more objective picture of the events in the USA than national newspapers.
And that a neoliberal newspaper, the voice of British Third Way.
In general British press is more valuable for coverage of the USA events then the USA MSM.
Some Indian commentators are also good.
But real insights usually come from countries that the USA neoliberal elite considers to be
adversaries ;-). In this sense, RT is a very valuable source, as BBC was for the Soviet population
in the USSR existence days.
Dan Kervick -> yuan... , -1
This is hysterical, because mainline Dems in the media have done nothing since the election but
try to undermine its legitimacy by touting a collection of conspiracy theories they can't prove.
"... This kind of stuff has been going on for YEARS. Multiple countries, multiple blogs, news sites, Facebook and Twitter accounts. The US does it too. Corporations do it; political parties do it; David Brock does it; and people in other countries do it. It may or may not be state coordinated, in any given case. And it's probably not actually illegal in most of these cases. Yes, of course people in other countries have preferences about who wins our elections. We live in a big new internet-connected world, where all kinds of folks are constantly trying to influence outcomes of various kinds in other countries. Grow up. ..."
"... After releasing to the surprised world Flame ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flame_%28malware%29 ) and Stuxnet ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuxnet ) not much was left to disclose. ..."
"... Add to this Snowden revelations and you have the situation when you can be almost completely open about methods you use (the most interesting part is how multiple levels of indirection are traced -- Snowden used this NSA program against Chinese hackers -- so it's existence is no longer secret staff. Simplifying you need something like traceroute via VPN channels ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traceroute ). But there can be proxies in the middle so the whole thing is very complex. ..."
"... Yeah, sounds a whole lot like that Nigerian uranium and Saddam's weapons. I was told back then also that the intelligence was just too sensitive to reveal. Sources and methods and all that. ..."
"... Good to see Matt Bruenig, Noah Smith and few others keeping their heads on their shoulders and trying to put the focus on policy. ..."
"... Do you really assume that the amount of "compromat" that Russia has on Clintons (and especially Clinton Foundation, which is a real ticking bomb) is less valuable that Trump fuzzy desire to normalize relations, which can change any time (and may be dictated by the desire to drive a wedge in Russia relations with China). ..."
"... Clinton is "the devil that we know" for Russia. Trump is "the devil that we don't". ..."
"... It is also unclear to what extent Presidents, being now to a certain extent just ceremonial figureheads legitimizing the existence of "deep state" can change the foreign policy course, which remains remarkably consistent for the last six US administrations (Clinton+Bush+Obama x 2 ). ..."
Now everybody can study them and learn from the masters of Cyberwarfare
sanjait -> Dan Kervick...
The US isn't going to release intelligence sources but it's really really easy to see who Russia
favored in the election and evidence of their efforts to influence it.
Exactly - even a moron (without a political agenda) will look at the publicly available information
and concluded that we are already past any "reasonable doubt".
Then there is all the additional material that simply cannot be released because it would help
the adversaries plug certain channels of counter intelligence.
It is a fact that the hackers were Russian. It is a fact that the only viable motive to release
that material the way it was (timed to inflict maximum damage on HRC) would be to lower the chances
of Hilary being elected. It is a fact that nobody in Russia would dare to challenge Putin's authority
and release this material without his knowledge.
However, tomorrow the great Orange will be informed about the facts and it will not make him
change his conclusion that the facts are wrong and he the great Trump and his great inside (from
Kremlin) sources have proven that it was not Russia. The Trump bobbleheads and associated clowns
will agree not because Trump had any evidence but because he told them what they wanted to hear.
Though for me the most compelling evidence was the simple observation that paid commenters
(with only moderate English speaking capability and no comment history, often from brand new Facebook
accounts) appeared with such frequency in comment sections of sites like WAPO and other major
news organizations, and the associated reporting with first person non-anonymous accounts of how
Russia ran farms for such paid comments.
The strangest part of this is how many useful idiots (in the classic sense) like Kervick exist
out there with various forms of apologetics for these actions.
This kind of stuff has been going on for YEARS. Multiple countries, multiple blogs, news sites,
Facebook and Twitter accounts. The US does it too. Corporations do it; political parties do it;
David Brock does it; and people in other countries do it. It may or may not be state coordinated,
in any given case. And it's probably not actually illegal in most of these cases. Yes, of course
people in other countries have preferences about who wins our elections. We live in a big new
internet-connected world, where all kinds of folks are constantly trying to influence outcomes
of various kinds in other countries. Grow up.
Not that one is short and just needs to plow into those Cheerios, but this is a parent speaking
to their child(ren), yes?
Deplorable(s).
This too, is part of the same exchange: not merely commander to commanded, but deaf to any other
view that might be characterized as a dialog between adults who are interested in the best path.
As if any dialog could take place between one person with a microphone and public relations team
on the command side and a flock of fans on the other, but I digress.
My favorite is "Suck it up Buttercup" at the sign of any resistance, or reluctance, or indifference
that might indicate you are nothin but a fading flower...sorta blows air in your face twice.
So Dan, I hear you and read most of your posts. And Sanjait's too. And both worth reading among
still others...my standards aren't terribly high.
Your note that the US does it too, might be the understatement of the year. And Sanjait's suggestion
that just as there is an adult-age limit there should be a senility limit too. As close as this
election was, the less capable adults (MCI is easily more than the 3M difference.) explains the
poor polls and the worse outcome.
Add to this Snowden revelations and you have the situation when you can be almost completely
open about methods you use (the most interesting part is how multiple levels of indirection are
traced -- Snowden used this NSA program against Chinese hackers -- so it's existence is no longer secret staff.
Simplifying you need something like traceroute via VPN channels (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Traceroute
). But there can be proxies in the middle so the whole thing is very complex.
So when they suggest that certain IPs signify Russian hacking they are insulting average computer
literate person intelligence.
There are some posters in this group who really understand this staff. I don't.
Yeah, sounds a whole lot like that Nigerian uranium and Saddam's weapons. I was told back then
also that the intelligence was just too sensitive to reveal. Sources and methods and all that.
And at the end of the day, the only credible charge is not that Russia hacked "the election",
but that they hacked John Podesta's email.
Anyway, it's water under the bridge. Meanwhile, Donald Trump and the radical Republican Congress
have a reactionary legislative agenda all lined up, and Democrats have done close to squat to
build and articulate a clear, unified and compelling counter-agenda. They are off on a crazy Russian
goose chase. So the Republicans are probably going to pass a lot of their agenda, because Democrats
are putting nothing on the table.
Good to see Matt Bruenig, Noah Smith and few others keeping their heads on their shoulders
and trying to put the focus on policy.
What I Didn't Find in Africa
By JOSEPH C. WILSON 4th
WASHINGTON -- Did the Bush administration manipulate intelligence about Saddam Hussein's weapons
programs to justify an invasion of Iraq?
Based on my experience with the administration in the months leading up to the war, I have
little choice but to conclude that some of the intelligence related to Iraq's nuclear weapons
program was twisted to exaggerate the Iraqi threat.
For 23 years, from 1976 to 1998, I was a career foreign service officer and ambassador. In
1990, as chargé d'affaires in Baghdad, I was the last American diplomat to meet with Saddam Hussein.
(I was also a forceful advocate for his removal from Kuwait.) After Iraq, I was President George
H. W. Bush's ambassador to Gabon and Săo Tomé and Príncipe; under President Bill Clinton, I helped
direct Africa policy for the National Security Council.
It was my experience in Africa that led me to play a small role in the effort to verify information
about Africa's suspected link to Iraq's nonconventional weapons programs. Those news stories about
that unnamed former envoy who went to Niger? That's me.
In February 2002, I was informed by officials at the Central Intelligence Agency that Vice
President Dick Cheney's office had questions about a particular intelligence report. While I never
saw the report, I was told that it referred to a memorandum of agreement that documented the sale
of uranium yellowcake - a form of lightly processed ore - by Niger to Iraq in the late 1990's.
The agency officials asked if I would travel to Niger to check out the story so they could provide
a response to the vice president's office.
After consulting with the State Department's African Affairs Bureau (and through it with Barbro
Owens-Kirkpatrick, the United States ambassador to Niger), I agreed to make the trip. The mission
I undertook was discreet but by no means secret. While the CIA paid my expenses (my time was
offered pro bono), I made it abundantly clear to everyone I met that I was acting on behalf of
the United States government.
In late February 2002, I arrived in Niger's capital, Niamey, where I had been a diplomat in
the mid-70's and visited as a National Security Council official in the late 90's. The city was
much as I remembered it. Seasonal winds had clogged the air with dust and sand. Through the haze,
I could see camel caravans crossing the Niger River (over the John F. Kennedy bridge), the setting
sun behind them. Most people had wrapped scarves around their faces to protect against the grit,
leaving only their eyes visible.
The next morning, I met with Ambassador Owens-Kirkpatrick at the embassy. For reasons that
are understandable, the embassy staff has always kept a close eye on Niger's uranium business.
I was not surprised, then, when the ambassador told me that she knew about the allegations of
uranium sales to Iraq - and that she felt she had already debunked them in her reports to Washington.
Nevertheless, she and I agreed that my time would be best spent interviewing people who had been
in government when the deal supposedly took place, which was before her arrival.
I spent the next eight days drinking sweet mint tea and meeting with dozens of people: current
government officials, former government officials, people associated with the country's uranium
business. It did not take long to conclude that it was highly doubtful that any such transaction
had ever taken place.
Given the structure of the consortiums that operated the mines, it would be exceedingly difficult
for Niger to transfer uranium to Iraq. Niger's uranium business consists of two mines, Somair
and Cominak, which are run by French, Spanish, Japanese, German and Nigerian interests. If the
government wanted to remove uranium from a mine, it would have to notify the consortium, which
in turn is strictly monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Moreover, because the
two mines are closely regulated, quasi-governmental entities, selling uranium would require the
approval of the minister of mines, the prime minister and probably the president. In short, there's
simply too much oversight over too small an industry for a sale to have transpired....
Joseph C. Wilson 4th, United States ambassador to Gabon from 1992 to 1995.
If you have Ph.D you should really be ashamed writing such nonsense.
Do you really assume that the amount of "compromat" that Russia has on Clintons (and especially
Clinton Foundation, which is a real ticking bomb) is less valuable that Trump fuzzy desire to
normalize relations, which can change any time (and may be dictated by the desire to drive a wedge
in Russia relations with China).
Clinton is "the devil that we know" for Russia. Trump is "the devil that we don't".
It is also unclear to what extent Presidents, being now to a certain extent just ceremonial figureheads
legitimizing the existence of "deep state" can change the foreign policy course, which remains
remarkably consistent for the last six US administrations (Clinton+Bush+Obama x 2 ).
Or do you really think that Bolton in State Department is different from Victoria Nuland?
"... If the Fed were to buy treasuries directly, then Wall Street would be losing a big fat paycheck for the horrendous work of two keystrokes. That is why Wall Streets little sock puppets in Congress has not done anything. ..."
"... Academics at least theoretically seek to discourage group think while politicians seek to cultivate group think. Nonetheless, peer review processes instill group think in academics regardless of intentions. Elite groups only think that they are better when in fact they are hardly any different in essential and existential ways, just in customs, habits, and aesthetics. Individual results may vary though in the general population and among elites. ..."
"... In a democratically electoral republic if the mainstream or status quo is the result of majority opinion then how can the opposition be characterized as populist? ..."
"... When we pursue technocrats, elitists, and oligarchs to advance the cause of socialism we do not get social democracy, but we may get liberal policy aimed at quelling discontent when necessary to prevent a popular uprising. That was the catch-22 omitted from Schumpeter's "Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy". Corporatism does not naturally lead to socialism in republican governments as Joseph Schumpeter said that it would. If we want social democracy then we must start by pursuing the electorate to advance the cause of democracy first. ..."
"... But there's a good case for arguing that Friedmanism, in the end, went too far, both as a doctrine and in its practical applications. ..."
"... Still, nothing regarding the monopoly over the money supply. Not addressed. Ignored. That the Treasury can inject debt free money into the money supply, is ignored! That we could have a job guaranteed program is ignored. That we never needed to produce debt for deficit financing is ignored. What the hell! ..."
David Glasner * has been making a series of posts on the legacy of Milton Friedman, some of
them in response to Scott Sumner; they're interesting if you want to delve into the intellectual
history. I'm not personally big on such things - in general, what people thought Keynes or Friedman
meant ends up being more important than what they turn out, on close reading, to (maybe, possibly)
actually have meant. For what it's worth, I think Glasner makes a good case that Friedman was
indeed more or less a Keynesian, or maybe Hicksian - certainly that was the message everyone took
from his "Monetary Framework," which was disappointingly conventional. And Friedman's attempts
to claim that Keynes added little that wasn't already in a Chicago oral tradition don't hold up
well either.
But never mind. What I think is really interesting is the way Friedman has virtually vanished
from policy discourse. Keynes is very much back, even if that fact drives some economists crazy;
Hayek is back in some sense, even if one has the suspicion that many self-proclaimed Austrians
bring little to the table but the notion that fiat money is the root of all evil - a deeply anti-Friedmanian
position. But Friedman is pretty much absent.
This is hardly what you would have expected not that long ago, when Friedman's reputation bestrode
the economic world like a colossus, when Greg Mankiw ** declared Friedman, not Keynes, the greatest
economist of the 20th century, when Ben Bernanke concluded a speech praising Friedman *** with
the famous line,
"Let me end my talk by abusing slightly my status as an official representative of the Federal
Reserve. I would like to say to Milton and Anna: Regarding the Great Depression. You're right,
we did it. We're very sorry. But thanks to you, we won't do it again.
"Best wishes for your next ninety years."
So what happened to Milton Friedman?
Part of the answer is that at this point both of Friedman's key contributions to macroeconomics
look hard to defend.
First, on monetary policy: Even if you give him a pass on the 3 percent growth in M2 thing,
which was abandoned by almost everyone long ago, Friedman was still very much associated with
the notion that the Fed can control the money supply, and controlling the money supply is all
you need to stabilize the economy. In the wake of the 2008 crisis, this looks wrong from soup
to nuts: the Fed can't even control broad money, because it can add to bank reserves and they
just sit there; and money in turn bears little relationship to GDP. And in retrospect the same
was true in the 1930s, so that Friedman's claim that the Fed could easily have prevented the Great
Depression now looks highly dubious.
Second, on inflation and unemployment: Friedman's success, with Phelps, in predicting stagflation
was what really pushed his influence over the top; his notion of a natural rate of unemployment,
of a vertical Phillips curve in the long run, became part of every textbook exposition. But it's
now very clear that at low rates of inflation the Phillips curve isn't vertical at all, that there's
an underlying downward nominal rigidity to wages and perhaps many prices too that makes the natural
rate hypothesis a very bad guide under depression conditions.
So Friedman's economic analysis has taken a serious hit. But that's not the whole story behind
his disappearance; after all, all those economists who have been predicting runaway inflation
still have a constituency after being wrong year after year.
Friedman's larger problem, I'd argue, is that he was, when all is said and done, a man trying
to straddle two competing world views - and our political environment no longer has room for that
kind of straddle.
Think of it this way: Friedman was an avid free-market advocate, who insisted that the market,
left to itself, could solve almost any problem. Yet he was also a macroeconomic realist, who recognized
that the market definitely did not solve the problem of recessions and depressions. So he tried
to wall off macroeconomics from everything else, and make it as inoffensive to laissez-faire sensibilities
as possible. Yes, he in effect admitted, we do need stabilization policy - but we can minimize
the government's role by relying only on monetary policy, none of that nasty fiscal stuff, and
then not even allowing the monetary authority any discretion.
At a fundamental level, however, this was an inconsistent position: if markets can go so wrong
that they cause Great Depressions, how can you be a free-market true believer on everything except
macro? And as American conservatism moved ever further right, it had no room for any kind of interventionism,
not even the sterilized, clean-room interventionism of Friedman's monetarism.
So Friedman has vanished from the policy scene - so much so that I suspect that a few decades
from now, historians of economic thought will regard him as little more than an extended footnote.
It seems that many people misunderstood my post * on Milton Friedman. It was not intended as
Friedman-bashing, as a claim that MF was a bad economist; in fact, I'm on record ** declaring
Friedman a "great economists' economist". His work aimed primarily at a professional audience
- the permanent income theory of consumption, the case for flexible exchange rates, the natural
rate (even if it does break down at low inflation), the optimum quantity of money - was often,
maybe even usually, brilliant, and will live on.
What isn't living on, however, is Friedman's role as a guiding light for conservative economic
policy.
Think about Paul Ryan, who is, like it or not, the leading economic intellectual of the modern
GOP. Ryan sometimes drops Friedman's name - but when he does, it's to cite "Capitalism and Freedom,"
not "A Monetary History of the United States." When it comes to monetary policy, Ryan has said
that his views are based on fictional characters in "Atlas Shrugged." No, really.
Or think about the economics rap video of "Keynes versus Hayek" everyone had fun with. Never
mind that back in the 30s nobody except Hayek would have considered his views a serious rival
to those of Keynes; the real shock should be, what happened to Friedman?
Partly this disappearance reflects real problems with Friedman's analysis. His views on the
omnipotence of monetary policy,let alone the adequacy of a simple quantity-of-money rule, haven't
withstood the test of time. As far as stabilization policy is concerned, he was indeed, as Brad
DeLong archly puts it, a minor post-Hicksian. ***
But the bigger issue, I'd argue, is that modern conservatives can't accept the things Friedman
was right about. Take, in particular, his essay on flexible exchange rates, in which he argued
that a country that finds its wages and prices out of line should devalue its currency rather
than rely on unemployment to push wages down, "until the deflation has run its sorry course."
Contrast this with Ryan's declaration that "There is nothing more insidious that a country can
do to its citizens than debase its currency."
The point is that Friedman was, when all is said and done, a pragmatist; he leaned right ideologically,
but was willing to make room for awkward realities. And these days reality has a well-known liberal
bias. Hence, Friedman has become an unperson.
"What's odd about Friedman's absolutism on the virtues of markets and the vices of government
is that in his work as an economist's economist he was actually a model of restraint."
What's ironic is if you read Krugman pre-2000 his work as an economist was actually a model
of restraint. Then BDS (Bush Derangement Syndrome) kicked in and he turned into a political "science"
crank.
2000 was when George W. Bush lied his way into office. Krugman called out Bush's lies and was
tagged as the Shrill One. Over time - a lot of progressives began to wear being shrill as a badge
of honor.
Kind of like Obama, Clinton and the likes lied to intervene in Libya? They hate us for our freedom?
No they hate us because we fight proxy wars in their territory and kill innocent civilians. As
long as Assad is around Obama can drone bomb innocent people in Yemen and Proggers hail him as
a saint.
Does anyone have any comments about the constitutional monopoly over the money supply awarded
to the Treasury? I don't understand what an economist means when he uses the word 'monetarist'
to describe a set of ideas, but I do understand what it would mean if the Treasury (or a national
Central Bank) stopped issuing debt for net government spending. Why we do issue this debt is beyond
my comprehension. It's incredibly expensive, and there are no guidelines that make any sense to
me when it comes to what is paid for by deficit spending. That we have piled up $17 trillion or
whatever amount of debt when most of it was unnecessary is astonishing.
Kenneth D. Garbade Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Abstract
Until 1935, Federal Reserve Banks from time to time purchased short-term securities directly from
the United States Treasury to facilitate Treasury cash management operations. The authority to
undertake such purchases provided a robust safety net that ensured Treasury could meet its obligations
even in the event of an unforeseen depletion of its cash balances. Congress prohibited direct
purchases in 1935, but subsequently provided a limited wartime exemption in 1942. The exemption
was renewed from time to time following the conclusion of the war but ultimately was allowed to
expire in 1981. This paper addresses three questions: 1) Why did Congress prohibit direct purchases
in 1935 after they had been utilized without incident for eighteen years, 2) why did Congress
provide a limited exemption in 1942 instead of simply removing the prohibition, and 3) why did
Congress allow the exemption to expire in 1981?
Paul Krugman
Be Ready To Mint That Coin
January 7, 2013 9:05 am
.....................
For those new to this, here's the story. First of all, we have the weird and destructive institution
of the debt ceiling; this lets Congress approve tax and spending bills that imply a large budget
deficit - tax and spending bills the president is legally required to implement - and then lets
Congress refuse to grant the president authority to borrow, preventing him from carrying out his
legal duties and provoking a possibly catastrophic default.
And Republicans are openly threatening to use that potential for catastrophe to blackmail the
president into implementing policies they can't pass through normal constitutional processes.
Enter the platinum coin. There's a legal loophole allowing the Treasury to mint platinum coins
in any denomination the secretary chooses. Yes, it was intended to allow commemorative collector's
items - but that's not what the letter of the law says. And by minting a $1 trillion coin, then
depositing it at the Fed, the Treasury could acquire enough cash to sidestep the debt ceiling
- while doing no economic harm at all.
If the Fed were to buy treasuries directly, then Wall Street would be losing a big fat paycheck
for the horrendous work of two keystrokes. That is why Wall Streets little sock puppets in Congress
has not done anything.
Rule number one for a populist (popular) communicator of complicated issues is that you lose any
and all doubt or granularity. The peeps will immediately lose interest in you and think you know
nothing, if you fail to say things with great certainty and great simplicity.
This is the exact opposite of how you communicate in an academic environment. If a scientist
give a talk and fail to acknowledge the weaknesses in the narrative they present; the scientists
listening will dismiss him/her as ignorant or a BS artist (and confront them with those weaknesses).
Academics at least theoretically seek to discourage group think while politicians seek to
cultivate group think. Nonetheless, peer review processes instill group think in academics regardless
of intentions. Elite groups only think that they are better when in fact they are hardly any different
in essential and existential ways, just in customs, habits, and aesthetics. Individual results
may vary though in the general population and among elites.
In a democratically electoral republic if the mainstream or status quo is the result of majority
opinion then how can the opposition be characterized as populist?
"Elite groups only think that they are better when in fact they are hardly any different"
A case of false equivalency. There is a huge difference between a process that is constructed
to reach a correct conclusion (but fails when inappropriately applied) and a process that has
less of a chance of reaching the correct conclusion than a random number pick. Yes there are many
examples where the scientific process has failed to reach the correct conclusion (and we know
that because eventually it cleansed itself of those conclusions). However there are many more
times when the scientific process got things right. That is in contrast to the FoxBot blowhards
who seems almost incapable of getting anything right.
Intellectual conclusions only matter when they influence real world policy decisions. Real world
policy decisions are not governed by science regardless of political control and economics is
not deterministic science and often is not even probabilistic science. Of course that is why real
world policy decisions are not governed by science. The political influence of wealth, custom
and habit, heuristic guidelines obtained from the random walk of history, and popular memes all
have more influence over public policy decisions than science.
When we pursue technocrats, elitists, and oligarchs to advance the cause of socialism we do not
get social democracy, but we may get liberal policy aimed at quelling discontent when necessary
to prevent a popular uprising. That was the catch-22 omitted from Schumpeter's "Capitalism, Socialism
and Democracy". Corporatism does not naturally lead to socialism in republican governments as
Joseph Schumpeter said that it would. If we want social democracy then we must start by pursuing
the electorate to advance the cause of democracy first.
DeDude -> RC AKA Darryl, Ron... , -1
"Real world policy decisions are not governed by science regardless of political control"
Another false equivalency...
The real world is not yes/no, black/white. Just because science sometimes get
corrupted doesn't mean it always is corrupted. Just because one of our main parties have become
addicted to refusing facts and evidence against their narratives doesn't mean that everybody all
the time refuse to listen to facts and evidence. I know that the corruption narrative is what
keeps you alive and thinking you got it all figured out, but it also is what leads you astray
on a regular basis.
Milton Friedman once tried to explain to doctors why their precious cartel known as the AMA was
a bad idea. One would have thought the doctors would have shot him on the spot. But no - Friedman
pitched this as a way to keep away "socialism" aka things like Medicare. The doctors loved it.
Of course I thought this was one of his lower moments. BTW - never tell a doctor we should have
Medicare for all unless you want to endure a tirade of why they don't make all that much.
Yes, you got to give Friedman that he was a good salesman. Scientist and economists: mediocre
- just to easily addicted to his own narratives. But he was a brilliant salesman.
MF proposal to manage economies with monetary policy only and to sideline fiscal and regulatory
policy found favors with free market conservatives.
Free market rules mean that the greedy are free to market their get rich quick scams to the
harm of the rest of us and their own personal enrichment.
Monetary policies such as Volcker's job killing interest rates in 1980 are praised. Fiscal
and regulatory policies such as the CAFE standards and subsidies to move away from oil created
the Great Moderation, yet are dismissed or worse vilified.
Monetary policy is not saving us from climate change. Fiscal incentives for clean energy and
regulation of carbon emissions are the tools that can be applied effectively.
The reformation we need is Post-Monetary with a strong emphasis on the fiscal and regulatory...
The free markets do hate fiscal policy or almost anything else that is sensible policy. But if
they ever really understood what Friedman was saying about monetary policy - they would turn on
him as being some of sort of communist.
Still, nothing regarding the monopoly over the money supply. Not addressed. Ignored. That the
Treasury can inject debt free money into the money supply, is ignored! That we could have a job
guaranteed program is ignored. That we never needed to produce debt for deficit financing is ignored.
What the hell!
anne -> Chris Herbert... , -1
Monopolization of the money supply:
I have been wondering about "demonetization" in India and what that might mean but I have read
no convincing analysis so far:
"... George Soros saw America in terms of its centers of economic and political power. He didn't care about the vast stretches of small towns and villages, of the more modest cities that he might fly over in his jet but never visit, and the people who lived in them. Like so many globalists who believe that borders shouldn't exist because the luxury hotels and airports they pass through are interchangeable, the parts of America that mattered to him were in the glittering left-wing bubble inhabited by his fellow elitists. ..."
"... Trump's victory, like Brexit, came because the neoliberals had left the white working class behind. Its vision of the future as glamorous multicultural city states was overturned in a single night. The idea that Soros had committed so much power and wealth to was of a struggle between populist nationalists and responsible internationalists. But, in a great irony, Bush was hardly the nationalist that Soros believed. Instead Soros spent a great deal of time and wealth to unintentionally elect a populist nationalist. ..."
"... Soros fed a political polarization while assuming, wrongly, that the centers of power mattered, and their outskirts did not. He was proven wrong in both the United States of America and in the United Kingdom. He had made many gambles that paid off. But his biggest gamble took everything with it. ..."
"... They sold their souls for campaign dollars and look what it got them. lmfao. ..."
"... I wouldn't give Soros that much credit. Sure, he helped, but face it, mainstream corporate media is now the Ministry of Truth. And both the Democrat and Republican elites have been working overtime in the last 16 years to dismantle the Constitution and Bill of Rights. ..."
"... The Deplorables at least understand they have been betrayed by BOTH parties. ..."
"... I'm guessing that even without the billionaire polarizing meddler Soros, the limousine liberal group, made up of the crooked Clintons, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Debbie Washerwoman-Schitz, Chuck 'the fuck' Schumer and the Obamas, was more than enough to sink a very divided, primary election-rigged Democrat Party ..."
"... Neoliberal lobbyists have successfully co-opted the policies & talking points of the center-left over the last two decades, and in so doing, poisoned progressive politics with a deep affinity for Wall Street, financialization, and free trade. Under neoliberalism, equality for all took a back seat to representational diversity within Western popular culture, redistribution was repurposed to include corporate welfare programs & taxpayer funded bail-outs for banks, and tolerance became increasingly subdued by identity politics. ..."
"... It was the takeover by neoliberalism that heralded the beginning of the end for Social Democracy. Nothing else. The consequences of this neoliberal-sized myopia, stupidity & hubris include historically low levels of trust in public institutions, and a rapidly rising tide of right-wing populism & ethnic nationalism across the West. Neoliberal policy is responsible for the current state of affairs in our societies; ergo, its advocates & pundits are to be held accountable for such events as Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. This fully includes legally accountable. ..."
"... Neoliberals control by divide and conquer tactics. ..."
"... I make a salient point about the detrimental influence of neoliberal & corporate lobbying on society, and soon after a troll appears to try divert attention away from the class struggle, and channel it right back to identity politics and the scapegoating of ethnic/religious minorities. It brings to mind the following quote, actually: ..."
"... " Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacificsts for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country. " - Hermann Goering ..."
"... It makes one wonder what else neoliberals and the far-right might have in common beyond the mutual adoration for corporate welfare & racial hierarchy. ..."
"... Your corporate & neoliberal sponsors are the inheritors & beneficiaries of these " American legacies". And judging by the events of the 2008 financial crisis, they are far from being done with destroying the lives of people they somehow deem inherently "inferior". ..."
"... And, if you were to give any kind of balance to your comments, you'd refer to "leftists" like Brzezinski, Carter, Rubin, Billary Clinton, Summers and Jay Rockefeller as neoliberals. ..."
"... yep, soros is finishing the job begun by Scoop Jackson and the DLC. "There's not a dime's worth of difference between the Democratic and Republican parties" - G. Wallace 1968. He was right then, even more correct in 2014 ..."
"... Please. He was 14 and a half when the Nazis surrendered in Budapest (where he lived). Soros may be pernicious, but drop this "Nazi collaborator" bullshit. ..."
"... The Dems a party of "radical leftists"?? Are you kidding me? they are a bunch of corrupt liars at every party level that has even a slight real influence on state or national policies, by and large. The same ist true for the republicans. ..."
"... Oh, and Soros is no leftist billionaire either. He is a globalist, elitist NWO world government crook who wants to enslave mankind for his own personal enrichment no matter what. ..."
"... His "open society" and "reflexivity" bullsh!t is just some empty talk and blabbering to fool and deceive people. ..."
"... His only "principle" and "ideology" is "Soros first". he has more money than he can ever spend in his remaining life span, yet he still cannot grab enough $$. Leftist? Not! ..."
"... Soros did a great job helping Oblivio and Hillary obliterate the Democratic Party. ..."
"... And nobody seems to discuss how Putin became Public Enemy Number One in the minds of the Dems after Russia put out a warrant on Soros. Coincidence? ..."
"... Soros was only part of the problem for the democrats, Mostly the blame falls on the ones that let it go into ruin. So blinded by the money, couldn't see the obvious. ..."
"... "They have financed both sides of every war since Napoleon. They own your news, the media, your oil and your government. Yet most of you don't even know who they are. ..."
"... The corrupt avarice of the Clintons and the Chicago Mafia were all that was needed to complete the complete destruction. ..."
"... I can think of no finer display of corrupt pettiness than how they have acted since the election. And to think they almost ended up running this country. It does appear as if the Fortunes shine upon us. Time will tell. ..."
"... Kinda like all the "russian hacking" nonsense. The neoliberals bitches and moans about foreign interference in our election, but their entire national strategy relies upon same. ..."
"... Also funny how the democrat party has allowed itself to become the big money, corporate party. They rely on billionaire money to operate. All that money spend and they still couldn't get killery her crown. I never thought Id say this, but it looks like we all owe old georgie a big thank you for what he did. I doubt the germans would feel the same, but him destroying the neoliberals trying to remake it in his imagine did us a big favor this time around. ..."
"... Destroying political parties is the easiest thing on the world, as they are completely populated by greedy sociopaths. ..."
"... The neoliberals needs demons as they don't have an actual platform that is economically feasible. Unfettered immigrants coming in coupled with jobs leaving isn't sustainable. The old saying "we make it up in volume" applies. ..."
"... The Washington Post is now referred to as Bezos' Blog. Get with the program, man. ..."
"... If Trump is moderately successful in draining the swamp I think that bodes poorly for the neocon warmongering old guard wing of the party. And that is a good thing if it happens. ..."
"... The neocons can easily move over to the Democratic Party. Some of them already are. The Democrats would welcome them. ..."
"... Actually, that is where they came from. Bill Kristol sr., Perle, etc. were democrats until democrats became the anti war party in the 60's of George McGovern, they couldn't abide with that so they moved to the republican party which was historically more isolationist and anti war, because war was bad for business. ..."
"... Funny how you forgot the military-industrial complex, wall street, healthcare scam etc. That's where most of it goes, but they keep the sheeple blaming the poor. ..."
It was the end of the big year with three zeroes. The first X-Men movie had broken box office
records. You couldn't set foot in a supermarket without listening to Brittney Spears caterwauling,
"Oops, I Did It Again." And Republicans and Democrats had total control of both chambers of legislatures
in the same amount of states. That was the way it was back in the distant days of the year 2000.
In 2016, Republicans control both legislative chambers in 32 states. That's up from 16 in 2000.
What happened to the big donkey? Among other things, the Democrats decided to sell their base
and their soul to a very bad billionaire and they got a very bad deal for both.
... ... ...
Obama's wins concealed the scale and scope of the disaster. Then the party woke up after Obama
to realize that it had lost its old bases in the South and the Rust Belt. the neoliberals had hollowed it
out and transformed it into a party of coastal urban elites, angry college crybullies and minority
coalitions.
Republicans
control twice as many state legislative chambers as the Democrats. They
boast 25 trifectas
, controlling both legislative chambers and the governor's mansion. Trifectas had gone from being
something that wasn't seen much outside of a few hard red states like Texas to covering much of the
South, the Midwest and the West.
The Democrats have a solid lock on the West Coast and a narrow corridor of the Northeast, and
little else. The vast majority of the
country's legislatures are in Republican hands. The Democrat Governor's Association has a membership
in the teens. In former strongholds like Arkansas, Dems are going extinct. The party has gone from
holding national legislative
majorities to becoming a marginal movement.
... Much of this disaster had been funded with Soros money. Like many a theatrical villain, the
old monster had been undone by his own hubris. Had Soros aided the Democrats without trying to control
them, he would have gained a seat at the table in a national party. Instead he spent a fortune destroying
the very thing he was trying to control.
George Soros saw America in terms of its centers of economic and political power. He didn't care
about the vast stretches of small towns and villages, of the more modest cities that he might fly
over in his jet but never visit, and the people who lived in them. Like so many globalists who believe
that borders shouldn't exist because the luxury hotels and airports they pass through are interchangeable,
the parts of America that mattered to him were in the glittering left-wing bubble inhabited by his
fellow elitists.
Trump's victory, like Brexit, came because the neoliberals had left the white working class behind. Its
vision of the future as glamorous multicultural city states was overturned in a single night. The
idea that Soros had committed so much power and wealth to was of a struggle between populist nationalists
and responsible internationalists. But, in a great irony, Bush was hardly the nationalist that Soros
believed. Instead Soros spent a great deal of time and wealth to unintentionally elect a populist
nationalist.
... ... ...
Soros fed a political polarization while assuming, wrongly, that the centers of power mattered,
and their outskirts did not. He was proven wrong in both the United States of America and in the
United Kingdom. He had made many gambles that paid off. But his biggest gamble took everything with
it.
"I don't believe in standing in the way of an avalanche," Soros complained of the Republican wave
in 2010.
But he has been trying to do just that. And failing.
"There should be consequences for the outrageous statements and proposals that we've regularly
heard from candidates Trump and Cruz,"
Soros threatened this time around. He predicted a Hillary landslide.
I wouldn't give Soros that much credit.
Sure, he helped, but face it, mainstream corporate media is now the Ministry of Truth. And both the Democrat and Republican elites have been working overtime in the last 16 years
to dismantle the Constitution and Bill of Rights.
The Deplorables at least understand they have been betrayed by BOTH parties.
I'm guessing that even without the billionaire polarizing meddler Soros, the limousine liberal
group, made up of the crooked Clintons, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Debbie Washerwoman-Schitz, Chuck
'the fuck' Schumer and the Obamas, was more than enough to sink a very divided, primary election-rigged
Democrat Party
" they ditched the working man to court the various hate groups - nyc skype, gay, black, illegal,
globalist warmers, etc "
Inclusive politics are not at the root of the crisis which the center-left is now experiencing
on both sides of the Atlantic. Neoliberalism is.
Neoliberal lobbyists have successfully co-opted the policies & talking points of the center-left
over the last two decades, and in so doing, poisoned progressive politics with a deep affinity
for Wall Street, financialization, and free trade. Under neoliberalism, equality for all took
a back seat to representational diversity within Western popular culture, redistribution was repurposed
to include corporate welfare programs & taxpayer funded bail-outs for banks, and tolerance became
increasingly subdued by identity politics.
Today, we witness this phenomenon across all major center-left parties & their associated media
pundits. A prominent example would be the vocal support that mainstream neoliberal outlets, such
as the Financial Times, Bloomberg, and The Economist, are consistently offering to the Social
Democratic parties & candidates. These neoliberal platforms take on a public profile of social
radicalism on key social issues, while they relentlessly advocate for unfettered free trade and
a form of laissez faire capitalism at the same time.
It was the takeover by neoliberalism that heralded the beginning of the end for Social Democracy.
Nothing else. The consequences of this neoliberal-sized myopia, stupidity & hubris include historically
low levels of trust in public institutions, and a rapidly rising tide of right-wing populism &
ethnic nationalism across the West. Neoliberal policy is responsible for the current state of
affairs in our societies; ergo, its advocates & pundits are to be held accountable for such events
as Brexit and the election of Donald Trump. This fully includes legally accountable.
Erik, when haven't England and the US been governed by neoliberals? Neoliberals control by divide
and conquer tactics. In the US, elections have always been rural vs city, young vs old, white
vs non-white. Even when Obama won, he didn't win the white vote, the rural vote or the old vote.
Brexit, too, was about young vs old, rural vs city and white vs non-white.
In the big national elections, it comes down to which sides get out the vote. In the case of
the Presidential election, the Democrats, who couldn't have picked a more entitled, crooked and
repulsive candidate, just couldn't get out enough of their own vote out her. In the case of the
Brexit election, it was the fear of the non-urban whites being over run by immigrants, that made
the difference.
I make a salient point about the detrimental influence of neoliberal & corporate lobbying on society,
and soon after a troll appears to try divert attention away from the class struggle, and channel
it right back to identity politics and the scapegoating of ethnic/religious minorities. It brings
to mind the following quote, actually:
" Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is
easy. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked and denounce the pacificsts for
lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works the same way in any country. "
- Hermann Goering
Your corporate & neoliberal sponsors are the inheritors & beneficiaries of these " American
legacies". And judging by the events of the 2008 financial crisis, they are far from being done
with destroying the lives of people they somehow deem inherently "inferior".
Perhaps the legacies of class warfare & racial hierarchy should end.
EML, would it kill you to be a bit more balanced in your comments? You always end up with a rant
about the "far-right" and "identity politics". Do you deny that the far left constantly disparages
Jews and working class whites, who these leftists refer to as "white trash" and "trailer trash"?
And, if you were to give any kind of balance to your comments, you'd refer to "leftists" like Brzezinski,
Carter, Rubin, Billary Clinton, Summers and Jay Rockefeller as neoliberals. Try not being such
a polarizing one-trick pony, or at least save yourself time by using the term, 'ditto' for your
posts, since most of your posts appear to be redundant pleas for negative attention.
Hermann Goering, please. Now you are resorting to Godwin's Law. How pathetic.
yep, soros is finishing the job begun by Scoop Jackson and the DLC. "There's not a dime's worth of difference between the Democratic and Republican parties" -
G. Wallace 1968. He was right then, even more correct in 2014
Please. He was 14 and a half when the Nazis surrendered in Budapest (where he lived). Soros may be pernicious, but drop this "Nazi collaborator" bullshit.
The Dems a party of "radical leftists"?? Are you kidding me? they are a bunch of corrupt liars
at every party level that has even a slight real influence on state or national policies, by and
large. The same ist true for the republicans.
Oh, and Soros is no leftist billionaire either.
He is a globalist, elitist NWO world government crook who wants to enslave mankind for his own
personal enrichment no matter what.
His "open society" and "reflexivity" bullsh!t is just some
empty talk and blabbering to fool and deceive people.
He sold out his fellow jews to the Nazis
back in the dark times of the 1930s/1940s; he virtually delivered them to the Nazio slaughterhouse
and never ever regretted it. He is doing and always will do the same to everybody else.
His only
"principle" and "ideology" is "Soros first". he has more money than he can ever spend in his remaining
life span, yet he still cannot grab enough $$. Leftist? Not!
Putin showed the world that you could aspire towards Christian nationhood, and take yourselves
out from under the debt enslaved thumb of Zoinist Rothchild Bankers. For that he must be stopped.
Soros was only part of the problem for the democrats, Mostly the blame falls on the ones that
let it go into ruin. So blinded by the money, couldn't see the obvious.
"They have financed both sides of every war since Napoleon.
They own your news, the media, your oil and your government. Yet most of you don't even know who they are."
Actually, I find this post to be a very accurate summation of what the 2016 election turned
out to be. It is true that it was not Soros alone who created the evil that was done, but he was
the money bags behind it.
The corrupt avarice of the Clintons and the Chicago Mafia were all that
was needed to complete the complete destruction. What is disturbing is how incapable those whose
guilt is writ in this fiasco are of coming to terms with their very own failures. All you see
them do is try to blame others for their iniquities.
I can think of no finer display of corrupt
pettiness than how they have acted since the election. And to think they almost ended up running
this country. It does appear as if the Fortunes shine upon us. Time will tell.
Since it came from Soros, Its "good" influence. Its only bad when such things hurt democrats.
Kinda like all the "russian hacking" nonsense. The neoliberals bitches and moans about foreign interference
in our election, but their entire national strategy relies upon same.
They import millions of
foreigners who overwhelmingly vote democrat. They wouldn't stand a chance in a national election
without a shitload of non americans voting. How exactly that isn't defined as 'foreign interference
in our elections' is beyond me.
Also funny how the democrat party has allowed itself to become the big money, corporate party.
They rely on billionaire money to operate. All that money spend and they still couldn't get killery
her crown. I never thought Id say this, but it looks like we all owe old georgie a big thank you
for what he did. I doubt the germans would feel the same, but him destroying the neoliberals trying to
remake it in his imagine did us a big favor this time around.
Also have to thank Soros for Black Lives Matter. When the revolution comes, there will be
a bunch of cops on our side, and most of the angry nutbags who kill random cops will be black,
which means there will be even more cops on our side.
Within a few years maybe we will thank Soros for a fascist Europe and the giant enema which
will follow. And the Farce will come full circle for this devil who got his start betraying
his own people to the Nazis so he could steal their shit.
"Excerpts from Perfidy are printed below. We begin with Adolf Eichmann's testimonial to Kastner's
activities, which Hecht quoted from "Eichmann's Confessions" published in the November 28 and
December 5, 1960 editions of LIFE magazine.
In Hungary my basic orders were to ship all the Jews out of Hungary in as short a time as possible.
. . . In obedience to Himmler's directive, I now concentrated on negotiations with the Jewish
political officials in Budapest . . . among them Dr. Rudolf Kastner, authorized representative
of the Zionist Movement. This Dr. Kastner was a young man about my age, an ice-cold lawyer and
a fanatical Zionist. He agreed to help keep the Jews from resisting deportation -- and even keep
order in the collection camps -- if I would close my eyes and let a few hundred or a few thousand
young Jews emigrate illegally to Palestine.
It was a good bargain. For keeping order in the camps, the price . . . was not too high for
me ....We trusted each other perfectly. When he was with me, Kastner smoked cigarets as though
he were in a coffeehouse. While we talked he would smoke one aromatic cigaret after another, taking
them from a silver case and lighting them with a silver lighter. With his great polish and reserve
he would have made an ideal Gestapo officer himself.Dr. Kastner's main concern was to make it
possible for a select group of Hungarian Jews to emigrate to Israel. . . .
As a matter of fact, there was a very strong similarity between our attitudes in the S.S. and
the viewpoint of these immensely idealistic Zionist leaders . . . . I believe that Kastner would
have sacrificed a thousand or a hundred thousand of his blood to achieve his political goal. .
. . "You can have the others," he would say, "but let me have this group here." And because Kastner
rendered us a great service by helping to keep the deportation camps peaceful, I would let his
group escape. After all, I was not concerned with small groups of a thousand or so Jews. . . .
That was the "gentleman's agreement" I had with the Jews. (p.261) - See more at:
https://www.henrymakow.com/2013/11/Zionists-Sacrificed-Jews-in-Holocaust...
Everyone, especially politicians. Destroying political parties is the easiest thing on the
world, as they are completely populated by greedy sociopaths. As long as they are getting
rich they are "winning".
The Koch brothers stayed out of the fray as they do not like Trump. The neoliberals tried to make
the Kochs a demon but no one was buying the bullshit. The neoliberals needs demons as they don't
have an actual platform that is economically feasible. Unfettered immigrants coming in coupled
with jobs leaving isn't sustainable. The old saying "we make it up in volume" applies.
Not this year really. They were not behind Trump, supported HRC if I am not mistaken, after Trump
won the nomination.
Thing about the Krotch brothers that is different from Soros is they try to influence thing
to benefit themselves financially, not necessarily to destroy the country, where Soros is flat
out anti traditional American values and US constitution. The constitution is the only thing that
has kept us from being a full blown totalitarian state run by global government so far, so it
has to be destroyed in his mind.
I could be wrong, but don't think the Krotch brothers are out to destroy the constitution,
just obscenely enrich themselves bordering on illegally.
Russians put the weeds in your lawn ... at night. Soros has always been a major problem for the
entire world, and that is why the news will be very interesting this year, because everyone knows.
Happy new year.
Goodbye, Democratic Party. See you maybe in 16 years, but I doubt it. My guess is
a different party will be formed to challenge the Republicans in 2032, and the Democrats will
go the way of the Bull Moose Party, as in extinction.
The status of the national part of the Republican party seems a little up in the air to me.
If
Trump is moderately successful in draining the swamp I think that bodes poorly for the neocon
warmongering old guard wing of the party. And that is a good thing if it happens.
Actually, that is where they came from. Bill Kristol sr., Perle, etc. were democrats until democrats
became the anti war party in the 60's of George McGovern, they couldn't abide with that so they
moved to the republican party which was historically more isolationist and anti war, because war
was bad for business.
Then the self perpetuating MIC that Eisenhower warned of became ascendant
and then war was even more of a racket than it always was. Their influence came to the fore with
Bush Sr.
Reagan had some in his administration, but he fired many or moved them out of positions of
power when it came to his attention they were following their own agenda. And yet, he had enough
to convince him of the Iran contra stuff.
Funny how you forgot the military-industrial complex, wall street, healthcare scam etc. That's
where most of it goes, but they keep the sheeple blaming the poor.
Free market is a neoliberal myth, the cornerstone of neoliberal secular region.
Notable quotes:
"... Well, duh. "Policy" and "Capitalism" don't go together and never have. When you enact policy, you destroy the ability to make profit and you get the 1970's. ..."
Two of my criticisms about Krugman/Friedman, etc is that is 'free markets' are supposed to substitute
for policy in the government sphere. Except very telling except when we're talking about funding
the security state.
The other is that the real power of markets is that in a real free market (not a Potemkin one)
decisions are made often at the point where needs, information, incentives, and economic power
come together. But the large scale decisions the governments have to make, markets fail. Policy
though doesn't.
But Neoliberals hate policy.
AngloSaxon -> Gibbon1...
Well, duh. "Policy" and "Capitalism" don't go together and never have. When you enact policy,
you destroy the ability to make profit and you get the 1970's.
Free market is a neoliberal myth, the cornerstone of neoliberalism as a secular religion. Somewhat
similar to "Immaculate Conception" in Catholicism.
In reality market almost by definition is controlled by government, who enforces the rules
and punish for the transgressions.
Also note interesting Orwellian "corruption of the language" trick neoliberals use: neoliberals
talk about "free market, not "fair market".
After 2008 few are buying this fairy tale about how markets can operate and can solve society
problems independently of political power, and state's instruments of violence (the police and
the military). This myths is essentially dead.
But like Adventists did not disappear when the second coming of Christ did not occurred in
predicted timeframe, neoliberals did not did not disappeared after 2008 either. And neither did
neoliberalism, it just entered into zombie, more bloodthirsty stage. the fact that even the term
"neoliberalism" is prohibited in the US MSM also helped. It is kind of stealth ideology, unlike
say, Marxists, neoliberals do not like to identify themselves as such. The behave more like members
of some secret society, free market masons.
Friedmanism is a flavor of economic Lysenkoism. Note that Lysenko like Friedman was not a complete
charlatan. Some of his ideas were pretty sound and withstood the test of time. But that does not
make his less evil.
And for those who try to embellish this person, I would remind his role in 1973 Chilean coup
d'état ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1973_Chilean_coup_d%27%C3%A9tat
) and bringing Pinochet to power. His "Chicago boys" played a vital role in the events. This
man did has blood on his hands.
=== quote ===
Of course, bringing a reign of terror to Chile was not why the CIA had sponsored him. The reason
he was there was to reverse the gains of the Allende social democracy and return control of the
country's economic and political assets to the oligarchy. Pinochet was convinced, through supporters
among the academics in the elite Chilean universities, to try a new series of economic policies,
called "neoliberal" by their founders, the economists of the University of Chicago, led by an
economist by the name of Milton Friedman, who three years later would go on to win a Nobel Prize
in Economics for what he was about to unleash upon Chile.
Friedman and his colleagues were referred to by the Chileans as "the Chicago Boys." The term
originally meant the economists from the University of Chicago, but as time went on, as their
policies began to disliquidate the middle class and poor, it took on a perjorative meaning. That
was because as the reforms were implemented, and began to take hold, the results were not what
Friedman and company had been predicting. But what were the reforms?
The reforms were what has come to be called "neoliberalism." To understand what "neoliberal"
economics is, one must first understand what "liberal" economics are, and so we'll digress briefly
from our look at Chile for a quick...
=== end of quote ===
"... Let us state the obvious: None of these men are Roman Emperors, and they haven't got the wherewithal to "blow up" anything but a stock market bubble. They are not Lex Luthors or Gandalfs or Stalins. ..."
"... Their products do not bring about revolutions. They are simply robber barons, JP Morgans and Andrew Mellons in mediocre T-shirts. ..."
"... The vast majority of Silicon Valley startups, the sort that project lofty missions and managed improbably lucrative IPOs despite never having graced the cover of The Economist or the frontal cortex of the president, work precisely like any other kind of mundane sales operation in search of a product: Underpaid cold-callers receive low wages and less job security in exchange for a foosball table and the burden of growing a company as quickly as possible so that it can reach a liquidation event. Owners and investors get rich. Managers stay comfortable. ..."
"... The employees get hosed. None of this is particularly original. At least the real robber barons built the railroads. ..."
Let us state the obvious: None of these men are Roman Emperors, and they haven't got the
wherewithal to "blow up" anything but a stock market bubble. They are not Lex Luthors or Gandalfs
or Stalins.
Their products do not bring about revolutions. They are simply robber barons, JP Morgans
and Andrew Mellons in mediocre T-shirts.
I have no doubt that many are preternaturally intelligent, hardworking people, and it is a
shame that they have dedicated these talents to the mundane accumulation of capital. But there
is nothing remarkable about these men. The Pirates of Silicon Valley do not have imperial ambitions.
They have financial ones.
The vast majority of Silicon Valley startups, the sort that project lofty missions and
managed improbably lucrative IPOs despite never having graced the cover of The Economist or the
frontal cortex of the president, work precisely like any other kind of mundane sales operation
in search of a product: Underpaid cold-callers receive low wages and less job security in exchange
for a foosball table and the burden of growing a company as quickly as possible so that it can
reach a liquidation event. Owners and investors get rich. Managers stay comfortable.
The employees get hosed. None of this is particularly original. At least the real robber
barons built the railroads.
==============================
Why IS Facebook, a not nearly as crappy email system, worth so much money?
Thats like asking why do intestinal parasites want to eat your sh*t? No, they want to eat YOU
.
"... Obama campaigned on change and vague promises, but still change. Instead he normalized atrocities that most of us had been screaming about in the Bush administration AND he didn't just squander the opportunities he had to change our course domestically because of the crash and the majorities in Congress, no he couldn't throw those away fast enough. ..."
"... Indeed. Bush was a known quantity. "Compassionate conservatism" was was blatantly hollow jingoism. My only surprise under W was how virulently evil Cheney was. ..."
"... The big O, though, was handed the opportunity to change the course of history. He took power with Wall Street on its knees. The whole world hungered for a change in course. Remember "never let a crisis go to waste". O turned Hope into blatantly hollow jingoism. ..."
"... Obama can be legitimately described as worse than Bush 43 because Obama ran as a "progressive" and flagrantly broke almost all of his promises and governed like a "Moderate" Republican. ..."
"... At the least, Bush, Sr. and Jr. ran as right wing politicos. The people basically got what they voted for with them. ..."
"... In August 1999, Barack Obama strolled amid the floats and bands making their way down Martin Luther King Drive on Chicago's South Side. Billed as the largest African-American parade in the country, the summer rite was a draw over the years to boxing heroes like Muhammad Ali and jazz greats like Duke Ellington. It was also a must-stop for the city's top politicians. ..."
"... Back then, Mr. Obama, a state senator who was contemplating a run for Congress, was so little-known in the community's black neighborhoods that it was hard to find more than a few dozen people to walk with him, recalled Al Kindle, one of his advisers at the time. Mr. Obama was trounced a year later in the Congressional race - branded as an aloof outsider more at home in the halls of Harvard than in the rough wards of Chicago politics. ..."
"... But by 2006, Mr. Obama had remade his political fortunes. He was a freshman United States senator on the cusp of deciding to take on the formidable Hillary Rodham Clinton and embark on a long-shot White House run. When the parade wound its way through the South Side that summer, Mr. Obama was its grand marshal. ..."
"... A tight-knit community that runs through the South Side, Hyde Park is a liberal bastion of integration in what is otherwise one of the nation's most segregated cities. Mayor Washington had called it home, as did whites who marched with the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and wealthy black entrepreneurs a generation removed from the civil rights battles of the 1960s. ..."
"... At its heart is the University of Chicago; at its borders are poor, predominately black neighborhoods blighted by rundown buildings and vacant lots. For Mr. Obama, who was born in Hawaii to a white Kansan mother and an African father and who spent part of his childhood in Indonesia, it was a perfect fit. ..."
"... "He felt completely comfortable in Hyde Park," said Martha Minow, his former law professor and a mentor. "It's a place where you don't have to wear a label on your forehead. You can go to a bookstore and there's the homeless person and there's the professor." ..."
Now that 0bama is about to exit as US Pres, perhaps it is time to revisit the Who Is Worse: Bush43
v 0bama question.
Conventional wisdom among "Progressive" pundits, even good ones like SecularTalk, seems to be
"yes, 0bama is better than Bush43, but that is a very low bar, & not a real accomplishment. 0bama
still sucks".
IMHO, 0bama's relentless pursue of 1 Grand "Bargain" Ripoff & 2 TPP, may alone make him Even Worse
than Bush43, as far as to damage inflicted on USians had 0bama been successful in getting these 2
policies. 0bama tried for years getting these 2 policies enacted, whereas Bush43 tried quickly to
privatize SS but then forgot it, & IIRC enacted small trade deals (DR-CAFTA ?). Bush43 focus seemed
to be on neocon regime change & War On Terra TM, & even then IIRC around ~2006 Bush43 rejected some
of Darth Cheney's even more extremish neocon policy preferences, with Bush43 rejecting Cheney's desired
Iran War.
IMHO both policies would've incrementally killed thousands of USians annually, far more than 1S1S
or the Designated Foreign Boogeyman Du Jour TM could ever dream of. Grand Ripoff raising Medicare
eligibility age (IIRC 67 to 69+ ?) would kill many GenX & younger USians in the future. TPP's pharma
patent extensions would kill many USians, especially seniors. These incremental killings might exceed
the incremental life savings from the ACA (mainly ACA Adult Medicaid expansion). Furthemore, 0bama
could've potentially achieved MedicareForAll or Medicare Pt O – Public Option in ~2010 with Sen &
House D majorities, & 0bama deliberately killed these policies, as reported by FDL's Jane Hamsher
& others.
Bush43 indirectly killed USians in multiple ways, including Iraq War, War On Terra, & failing
to regulate fin svcs leading to the 2008 GFC; however it would seem that 0bama's Death Toll would
have been worse.
"What do you think?!" (c) Ed Schultz
How do Bush43 & 0bama compare to recent Presidents including Reagan & Clinton? What do you expect
of Trump? I'd guesstimate that if Trump implements P Ryan-style crapification of Medicare into an
ACA-like voucher system, that alone could render Trump Even Worse than 0bama & the other 1981-now
Reganesque Presidents.
It does seem like each President is getting Even Worse than the prior guy in this 21st Century.
#AmericanExceptionalism (exceptionally Crappy)
You hit the right priority of issues IMO, and would add a few bad things Obamanation did:
1). Bombing more nations than anyone in human history and being at war longer than any US President
ever, having never requested an end but in fact a continuation of a permanent state of war declared
by Congress.
2). The massive destruction of legal and constitutional rights from habeas corpus, illegal and
unconstitutional surveillance of all people, to asserting the right to imprison, torture, and assassinate
anyone anytime even America children just because Obama feels like doing it.
3). Austerity. This tanked any robust recovery from the 2008 recession and millions suffered because
of it, we are living with the affects even now. In fact Obamanation's deep mystical belief in austerity
helped defeat Clinton 2016.
HAMP. And not just ignoring bank mortgage fraud, but essentially enabling it and making it
the norm.
Deporting more people than Presidents before him.
Passing the Korea and Columbia free trade pacts, even lying about what the pact did to get the
Columbian one passed. KORUS alone made our trade deficit with Korea soar and lost an estimated
100,000 jobs in the US (and not those part time ones being created).
Had the chance to pass a real infrastructure repair/stimulus package, didn't.
Had the chance to put the Post Office in the black and even start a Postal Bank, didn't. Didn't
even work to get rid of the Post Office killing requirement to fund its pension 75 years out.
Furthering the erosion of our civil rights by making it legal to assassinate American citizens
without trial.
Instead of kneecapping the move to kill public education by requiring any charter school that
receives federal funding to be non-profit with real limits on allowable administrative costs,
expanded them AND expanded the testing boondoggle with Common Core.
Libya.
Expansion of our droning program.
While I do give him some credit for both the Iran deal and the attempt to rein in the Syria
mistake, I also have to take points away for not firing Carter and demoting or even bringing Votel
before a military court after their insubordination killing the ceasefire.
Should I continue. Bush was evil, Obama the more effective one.
Was that a disastrous choice? Certainly and it is a big one, but it also ignores how much of
the disastrous choices attached to that decision Barack H. Obama has either continued or expanded
upon. It also ignores how that war continues under Obama. Remember when we left Iraq? Oh, wait
we haven't we just aren't there in the previous numbers.
And what about Libya? You remember that little misadventure. Which added to our continued Saudi/Israeli
determined obsession with Syria has led to a massive refugee crisis in Europe. How many were killed
there. How much will that cost us fifteen years on?
I get that the quagmire was there before Obama. I also get that he began to get a clue late
in his administration to stop listening to the usual subjects in order to make it better. But
see that thing above about not firing people who undermined that new direction in Syria, and are
probably now some of the most pressing secret voices behind this disastrous Russia Hacked US bull.
But I think only focusing on the original decision also ignores how effective Obama has been
at normalize crime, corruption, torture and even assassination attached to those original choices
– something that Bush didn't manage (and that doesn't even consider the same decriminalization
and normalization done for and by the financial industry). Bush may have started the wheel down
the bumpy road, but Obama put rubber on the wheel and paved the road so now it is almost impossible
to stop the wheel.
As mentioned, Bush is a very low bar for comparison, and if that's the best presidential comparison
that can be made with Obama, then that says it all.
Mr. O long ago received my coveted Worst_President_Ever Award (and yes the judging included
Millard Fillmore and Andrew Johnson).
Handed the golden platter opportunity to repudiate the myriad policy disasters of Bush (which
as cited above cost trillions of dollars and millions of lives) he chose instead to continue them
absolutely unchanged, usually with the same personnel. Whether it was unprosecuted bank crime
in the tens of billions, foreign policy by drone bomb, health care mega-bezzle, hyper-spy tricks
on everyday Americans, and corporo-fascist globalist "trade" deals, Mr. O never disappointed his
Big Wall St, Big Pharma, Big Insurance, and Big Surveillance-Industrial Complex constituents.
Along the way he reversed the polarity of American politics, paving the way for a true corporo-fascist
to say the slightest thing that might be good for actual workers and get into the White House.
History will remember him as the president who lost Turkey and The Philippines, destroyed any
remaining shreds of credibility with utterly specious hacking claims and war crime accusations
of other nations, and presided over an era of hyper-concentration of billionaire wealth in a nation
where 70% of citizens would need to borrow to fund a $400 emergency. Those failures are now permanently
branded as "Democrat" failures. The jury is unanimous: Obama wins the award.
"HAMP. And not just ignoring bank mortgage fraud, but essentially enabling it and making it
the norm."
Exactly. That is #1 on my list making him worst president ever.
I would question "ever" simply because I know I don't know enough about the history of previous
presidents, and I doubt any of us do; even historians who focus on this kind of thing, supposing
we had any in our midst, might be hard put to it to review all 44 thoroughly.
I vote the mortgage fraud situation (see
Chain of Title by David
Dayen -not really a plug for the book) as the worst aspect of the Obama Administration. What
to say about it? Regular readers of this site are well versed in the details but one aspect of
it needs to be expounded upon; stand on the housetops and shout it kind of exposition: the mortgage
fraud worked on millions (3, 5, 7, maybe 12 million) shows that rule of law is now destroyed in
the land. Dictionary .com says this about the phrase
Rule of Law: the principle that all people and institutions are subject to and accountable
to law that is fairly applied and enforced; the principle of government by law.
* The government and its officials and agents as well as individuals and private entities
are accountable under the law.
* The laws are clear, publicized, stable, and just; are applied evenly; and protect fundamental
rights, including the security of persons and property and certain core human rights.
* The process by which the laws are enacted, administered, and enforced is accessible, fair,
and efficient.
* Justice is delivered timely by competent, ethical, and independent representatives and neutrals
who are of sufficient number, have adequate resources, and reflect the makeup of the communities
they serve.
I would invite the reader to take a moment and apply those principles to what is known about
the situation concerning mortgage fraud worked on millions of homeowners during the past two decades.
The Justice Department's infamous attempts to cover up horribly harmful schemes worked by
the mortgage industry perpetrators involved the cruel irony of aiding and abetting systemic racism.
Not a lot was said in the popular press about the subject of reverse redlining but I'm convinced
by the preponderance of evidence that overly complicated mortgage products were taken into the
neighborhoods of Detroit (90% Black or Latin American, Hispanic) and foisted off on unsuspecting
homeowners. Those homeowners did not take accountants and lawyers with them to the signing but
that's how those schemes should have been approached; then most of those schemes would have hit
the trashcan. Many a charming snake oil salesman deserves innumerable nights of uncomfortable
rest for the work they did to destroy the neighborhoods of Detroit and of course many other neighborhoods
in many other cities. For this discussion I am making this a separate topic but I realize it is
connected to the overall financial skulduggery worked on us all by the FIRE sector.
However, let me return to the last principle promulgated by the World Justice Project pertaining
to Rule Of Law and focus on that: "Justice is delivered timely by competent, ethical, and independent
representatives and neutrals who are of sufficient number, have adequate resources, and reflect
the makeup of the communities they serve." Now hear this: "are of sufficient number" for there,
and gentle reader, please take this to bed with you at the end of your day: we fail as a nation.
But look to the 'competent, ethical and independent' clause; we must vow to not sink into despair.
This subject is a constant struggle. Google has my back on this: Obama, during both campaigns
of '08 and '12, took millions from the very financial sector that he planned to not dismay and
then was in turn very busy directing the Attorney General of The United States, the highest law
officer in the country, to not prosecute. These very institutions that were in turn very busy
taking property worth billions. 12 million stolen homes multiplied times the average home value
= Trillions?
Finally, my main point here (I am really busy sharpening this ax, but it's a worthy ax) is
the issue of systemic racism- that the financial institutions in this country work long hours
to shackle members of minority neighborhoods into monetarily oppressive schemes in the form of
mortgages, car loans, credit cards and personal loans (think pay day scammers) and these same
makers of the shackles have the protection of the highest officials in the land. Remember the
pitchforks Obama inveighed? Irony of cruel ironies, two black men, both of whom appear to be of
honorable bearing, (Holder moved his chair right directly into the financiers, rent takers of
Covington & Burling ) work to cement the arrangements of racist, oppressive scammers who of
course also work their playbooks on other folks.
To finalize, the subject of rule of law that I have worked so assiduously to sharpen, applies
to all of the other topics we can consider as failures of the Obama Presidency. So besides racism
and systemic financial fraud we can turn to some top subjects that make '09 to '17 the nadir of
the political culture of the United States of America. Drone wars, unending war in the Middle
East, attempts to place a cloak of secrecy on the workings of the Federal Government, the reader
will have their own axes to sharpen but I maintain if the reader will fervently apply and dig
into the four principles outlined above, she, he, will agree that the principles outlining Rule
of Law have been replaced by Rule of the Person.
Here's one of many scholarly articles that reviews the subject of systemic racism in the finance
and mortgage industries.
Am Sociol Rev. 2010 October 1; 75(5): 629–651. doi:10.1177/0003122410380868
Racial Segregation and the American Foreclosure Crisis
Jacob S. Rugh and Douglas S. Massey
Office of Population Research, Princeton University
Arghhh, the server is apparently napping-more caffeine please for the cables.
Here's one of many scholarly articles that reviews the subject of systemic racism in the finance
and mortgage industries.
Am Sociol Rev. 2010 October 1; 75(5): 629–651. doi:10.1177/0003122410380868
Racial Segregation and the American Foreclosure Crisis
Jacob S. Rugh and Douglas S. Massey
Office of Population Research, Princeton University
I dunno. President Obama is not great but the comments here make me feel like it's time for
me to skedaddle. Thinking he might be worse than Shrub? 6″ tall, smh
Oh I admit it can be a tough choice, but you might really want to add up the good and the bad
for both. Not surprisingly there is little good and a whole lot of long ongoing damage inflicted
by the policies that both either embraced, adapted to or did little or nothing to stop.
Even if the list of bad was equal, I have to give Obama for the edge for two reasons. First
because Bush pretty much told us what he was going to do, Obama campaigned on change and vague
promises, but still change. Instead he normalized atrocities that most of us had been screaming
about in the Bush administration AND he didn't just squander the opportunities he had to change
our course domestically because of the crash and the majorities in Congress, no he couldn't throw
those away fast enough.
Your position is obviously different.
And I don't give a damn what height either of them are, both are small people.
Indeed. Bush was a known quantity. "Compassionate conservatism" was was blatantly hollow
jingoism. My only surprise under W was how virulently evil Cheney was.
The big O, though, was handed the opportunity to change the course of history. He took
power with Wall Street on its knees. The whole world hungered for a change in course. Remember
"never let a crisis go to waste". O turned Hope into blatantly hollow jingoism.
In the end, the black activist constitutional lawyer turned his back on all that he seemed
to be. Feint left, drive right.
With W we got what we expected. With O we got hoodwinked. What a waste.
Look, if you don't like some of the comments you see, say so. We have some thick skinned people
here. A little rancorous debate is fine. If some reasoned argumentation is thrown in, the comments
section is doing it's job. (I know, I know, "agency" issues.)
Obama can be legitimately described as worse than Bush 43 because Obama ran as a "progressive"
and flagrantly broke almost all of his promises and governed like a "Moderate" Republican.
At the least, Bush, Sr. and Jr. ran as right wing politicos. The people basically got what
they voted for with them.
Finally, " it's time for me to skedaddle." WTF? I'm assuming, yes, I do do that, that you are
a responsible and thoughtful person. That needs must include the tolerance of and engagement with
opposing points of view. Where do you want to run to; an "echo chamber" site? You only encourage
conformation bias with that move. The site administrators have occasionally mentioned the dictum;
"Embrace the churn." The site, indeed, almost any site, will live on long after any of we commenters
bite the dust. If, however, one can shift the world view of other readers with good argumentation
and anecdotes, our work will be worthwhile.
So, as I was once admonished by my ex D.I. middle school gym teacher; "Stand up and face it.
You may get beat, but you'll know you did your best. That's a good feeling."
Picking the #1 Worst Prez is a fallacy inherent in our desire to put things on a scale of 1
to 10. It's so we can say, in this case, #1 was the WORST, and then forget about #2 thru #10.
It's like picking the #1 Greatest Rock Guitar Player. There are too many great guitar players
and too many styles. It's just not possible.
Even so, I'd like to see the Russian citizen ranking of Putin vs. Yeltsin. Secret ballot, of
course.
I don't think he's worse than Bush but I agree he was horribly dishonest to run as a progressive.
He's far from progressive.
I think the ACA, deeply flawed as it is, was/is a good thing. It wasn't enough and it was badly
brought out. I hope many thousands don't get tossed off health insurance.
My major criticism of him and most politicians is that he has no center. There is nothing for
which he truly stands and he has a horrible tendency to try to make nice w the republicans. He's
not progressive. Bernie, flawed also stands for something always has, always will.
Obama is highly deceptive, but I think that Bush (43) was worse. I doubt that Obama would have
performed many of his worst deeds if Bush hadn't first paved the way. But we'll never know for
sure, so it's possible to argue on behalf of either side of the dispute.
I have to tell you it is inaccurate in material respects, and many of the people who played
important roles in the fight were written out entirely or marginalized.
GW Bush sort of had two administrations. The first two years and the last two years was sort
of a generic Republican but sane administration, sort of like his father's, and was OK. The crazy
stuff happened in the middle four years, which maybe not coincidentally the Republicans had majorities
in both house of Congress.
Obama signed off on the Big Bailout (as did GW Bush, but my impression is that the worst features
of the Big Bailout were on Obama's watch(), and that defined his administration. Sometimes you
get governments defined by one big thing, and that was it. But I suspect he may have prevented
the neocons from starting World War III, but that is the sort of thing we won't know about until
decades have passed, if we make it that long.
Obama promised hope and change and delivered the exact opposite – despair and decline. Obama
should be remembered as the Great Normalizer. All of the shitty things that were around when he
was inaugurated are now normalized. TINA to the max, in other words.
It should be no shock to anyone that Trump was elected after what Obama did to American politics.
You got it. Obama was hired to employ "The Shock Doctrine" and he did. He was and is "a Chicago
Boy"; the term Naomi Klein used for the neoliberals who slithered out of the basements of U of
Chicago to visit austerity on the masses for the enhancement of the feudal lords. It is laughable
that he said last week that he could have beaten Trump. As always, He implied that it was the
"message" not the policy. And that he could "sell" that message better than Hilary. For him it
was always about pitching that Hopey Changey "One America" spleel that suckered so many. The Archdruid
calls this "the warm fuzzies". But the Donald went right into the John Edwards land of "The Two
Americas". He said he came from the 1%; but was here to work for the 99% who had been screwed
over by bad deals. We will see if the Barons will stand in his way or figure out that it might
be time to avoid those pitchforks by giving a little to small businesses and workers in general.
Like FDR, will they try to save capitalism?
The Donald has the bad trade deals right, but looks like he doesn't know what havoc Reagan
wreaked on working people's household incomes and pension plans by breaking any power unions had
and by coming up with the 401K scam; plus the Reagan interest rates that devastated farmers and
ranchers and the idea of rewarding a CEO who put stock price above research and development and
workers' salaries. But again, I believe it was a Democratic congress and a Democratic president
Carter who eliminated the Usury law in 1979. From then on with stagnating wages, people began
the descent into debt slavery. And Jimmy started the Shock Doctrine by deregulating the airlines
and trucking. But he did penance. Can't see Obama doing that.
And once usary laws went away, credit cards were handed out to college students, with no co-sign,
even if students had no work or credit history and were unemployed.
It took until just a few years ago before they revisted that credit card policy to students.
dont want to burst your bubble(or anyone elses) but obama is not and was not the power to the
throne it was michelle and val jar (aka beria) it was a long series of luck that got that krewe
anywhere near any real power mostly, it comes from the Univ of Chicago hopey changee thingee was
a nice piece of marketing by david axelrod..
the grey lady
5-11-2008
In August 1999, Barack Obama strolled amid the floats and bands making their way down Martin
Luther King Drive on Chicago's South Side. Billed as the largest African-American parade in the
country, the summer rite was a draw over the years to boxing heroes like Muhammad Ali and jazz
greats like Duke Ellington. It was also a must-stop for the city's top politicians.
Back then, Mr. Obama, a state senator who was contemplating a run for Congress, was so little-known
in the community's black neighborhoods that it was hard to find more than a few dozen people to
walk with him, recalled Al Kindle, one of his advisers at the time. Mr. Obama was trounced a year
later in the Congressional race - branded as an aloof outsider more at home in the halls of Harvard
than in the rough wards of Chicago politics.
But by 2006, Mr. Obama had remade his political fortunes. He was a freshman United States
senator on the cusp of deciding to take on the formidable Hillary Rodham Clinton and embark on
a long-shot White House run. When the parade wound its way through the South Side that summer,
Mr. Obama was its grand marshal.
but to capture the arrogance of hyde park (read the last line)
A tight-knit community that runs through the South Side, Hyde Park is a liberal bastion
of integration in what is otherwise one of the nation's most segregated cities. Mayor Washington
had called it home, as did whites who marched with the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and wealthy
black entrepreneurs a generation removed from the civil rights battles of the 1960s.
At its heart is the University of Chicago; at its borders are poor, predominately black neighborhoods
blighted by rundown buildings and vacant lots. For Mr. Obama, who was born in Hawaii to a white
Kansan mother and an African father and who spent part of his childhood in Indonesia, it was a
perfect fit.
"He felt completely comfortable in Hyde Park," said Martha Minow, his former law professor
and a mentor. "It's a place where you don't have to wear a label on your forehead. You can go
to a bookstore and there's the homeless person and there's the professor."
also note how the lib racist grey lady can not bring themselves to name the parade it is the
bud billiken parade
peaceful, fun, successful
heaven forbid the world should see a giant event run by black folk that does not end in violence
might confuse the closet racists
There are enough examples of such things for it to be a reasonable expectation.
The parade also hasn't always gone without a hitch:
The 2003 parade featured B2K.[9] The concert was free with virtually unlimited space in
the park for viewing. However, the crowd became unruly causing the concert to be curtailed.
Over 40 attendees were taken to hospitals as a result of injuries in the violence, including
two teenagers who were shot.[38] At the 2014 parade, Two teenagers were shot after an altercation
involving a group of youths along the parade route near the 4200 block of King Drive around
12:30 pm.[39][40]
Does "redneck" = "neoliberal looters"? If so, I'd agree with
the craazy observation. But it's just more of the same poisons the
few have been serving up to the many. The Governator, Snick Rott,
with the cover of a carefully built Chamber of Commerce majority
in the gerrymandered legislature, fired all the PSC members who
showed even the slightest inclination to "regulate" as that term
used to be understood, and put cronies and looters in their spots.
And it is not "redneckery" that produces activities like the ones so mildly described in this
link: "Univita Health Losing Medicaid Contracts,"
http://health.wusf.usf.edu/post/univita-health-losing-medicaid-contracts#stream/0
What this all
meant is that people who take care of sick and disabled people, provide nursing and aide and medical
equipment to them, including low paid aides and nurses, were just not paid by the scammers, who disappeared
into Chapter 7 with all the loot (general revenue money given by the State and feds to Univita, to
pay forward to the actual workers and the small businesses that employed them, many of whom went
under as a result of NONpayment.) F@kking over many of my nursing friends who provide home health
care (which is demonstrably more "efficient" than what Scott also tried to do, force all of them
into cronies' "nursing homes" to be robbed, abused and early-deathed), and of course the people ("worthless
eaters" mostly) who need stuff like oxygen and wheel chairs and dressings and simple attention to
"activities of daily living" also got fokked.
And that "consolidating for business efficiency" of all Medicaid and Medicaid-Medicare payment
management into the solitary monopoly grasping hands of the Univita C-Suite-ers was engineered by
Snick Rott and the smaller scale bunch of looters (compared to the Trumpening) that Sick Snott brought
in with him, all done as a favor to a crony, with a lot of sneaky sh!t to snake it past various "legal
requirements" and "regulatory reviews."
Thank you for your very cognizant and well versed rant! I
find the saga of Mr. Scott to be a well rehearsed meme of so
many, way too many high officials in the land including the next
occupant of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. To put it as politely as possible:
"I'll eat very well, dress very well, have several spacious homes,
drive very expensive cars, clothe my family in furs and diamonds
and ask the public to pay for it all. Thank you very much. I
am a good person."
Ditto much of this for Texas under Gov Good Hair. Medicaid
serves to enrich the wealthy and well connected – the recipients
are merely the conduits of government cash.
Excellent rant!
"... inverted totalitarianism, or a police state, whatever you call America today, America is run by the rich, for the rich and by the rich. Thanks to Congress, Republican and Democrats, Partners in Crime. All those "Checks and Balances" designed to "safeguard" Government are working,for sure, but now working to insure the Rich keep their control. The Republican and the Vichy Party/Democrats make sure "Government" does whatever Business wants. Who need competition when you own The US Government! not Capitalism!, that's for sure. or as i've heard, Capitalism can only be failed. Like Conservatism. The age old scam of stealing from the Poor to give to the Rich. ..."
inverted totalitarianism, or a police state, whatever you call America today, America is
run by the rich, for the rich and by the rich. Thanks to Congress, Republican and Democrats, Partners
in Crime. All those "Checks and Balances" designed to "safeguard" Government are working,for sure,
but now working to insure the Rich keep their control. The Republican and the Vichy Party/Democrats
make sure "Government" does whatever Business wants. Who need competition when you own The US
Government! not Capitalism!, that's for sure. or as i've heard, Capitalism can only be failed.
Like Conservatism. The age old scam of stealing from the Poor to give to the Rich.
Watching others, who offer platitudes, speak about how much better our Banana Republic (America)
is, say, compared to Mother Russia's version, proves how well Americans have been "trained." American
Exceptionalism! Because America!!! I know very little about Russia, but i know a lot more about
how we/Americans are being scammed. That is what Congress is for.
scary, absolutely scary to see the endless displays of ignorance; no matter the cause, watching
the fruits of Fascism/Inverted Totalitarianism flow unchecked and unchallenged is not something
I can stomach. a wince here and an "oh no" there. the descent into Fascism is really awful. no
matter what you call it.
of course, then again, i can see who is stealing what from whom, and it ain't pretty to watch
it go on, year after year. Thanks to Congress and the American Voter, we have reaped the whirlwind.
The Last but not LeastTechnology is dominated by
two types of people: those who understand what they do not manage and those who manage what they do not understand ~Archibald Putt.
Ph.D
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