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marknesop, October 8, 2011 at 7:36 pm
Interestingly on the reserves point, I read elsewhere that Kudrin offered to commit Russia's reserves to buying up European debt.
The origin is a little flaky, as Lyndon Larouche is something of a nutbar, but the source of his information is frequently reliable and this is suggested as not the first time Kudrin has made such an offer. Had you heard this before? It sounds incredibly risky to me, and quite a few "old" European countries must be feeling buyer's remorse as regards the EU concept. By the way, the UK wouldn't be one of them as they are lost in their own misery; the austerity budget thus far has proved a disaster and is merely strangling growth.
kovane,October 8, 2011 at 8:00 pm
Yes, this story hanged around in the headlines recently, but it's hard to discern what is behind it so far. It could be a standard diplomatic curtsy, like "Of course we're ready to participate in the saving of the EU" and then buying exactly 1 euro of the debt. Or actually unloading tons of money into a very dubious enterprise at best. Besides, Kudrin is kinda old news.
Giuseppe Flavio,October 8, 2011 at 8:03 pm
The offer to buy European debt made by Kudrin is true. I commented about it on Anatoly's blog link.
sinotibetan,October 8, 2011 at 6:36 am
Anyway, any comments on Putin's recent proposal of a 'Eurasian Union' – perhaps an EU-like organization?
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/64282
Sorry for my lack of comments nowadays. Very busy. Take care.
sinotibetan
kievite, October 11, 2011 at 4:07 am
I am not a specialist, but I think that creation of this economic union is very difficult as nobody wants to play fair and due to this it can be costly for Russia and personally to Putin.
This stage of development of the xUSSR space is dominated by rabid nationalist forces that are by definition strongly anti-Russian. This is often disguised as "search for national identity" and "anti-colonial sentiments" but the essence is the same: "Russians go home".
So I think there need to be a higher level of separation before some form of economic cooperation became politically possible. Now the specter of the "new USSR" dooms the efforts.
Deepening of the current economic crisis might speed up the process. But most countries now realized that there is a possibility to balance pro-Kremlin moves with pro-Washington and pro-China moves to get some concessions from each player (although in case of Washington it proved to be pretty difficult; the USA played those republics like a master chess player) and you get the picture.
Some former republics might be more cooperative that others. Kazakhstan might be one although anti-Russian feelings are widespread too and there is an islamist party that wants to exclude Russians from the republic. Some are close to lost case. For example Georgia under Saakashvili is one.
Azerbaijan might be close to the lost case too as it fought with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh region, see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nagorno-Karabakh_War ), Armenia ia a Russian ally and although Russia was neutral in the conflict bad feelings exists.
Turkmenistan also has distinct anti-Russian position and discriminates Russian ethnic minority access to education.
The number of ethnic Russians who are forced to leave those republics annually due to nationalism is estimated to be around 10K. Might be much higher.
Ukraine for all practical purposes is a Western colony with crushing debt so it does not have an independent foreign policy. Also significant percentage of Western Ukrainians wants Russians to be deported from the country (5-7% I think). In this respect Western Ukraine is closer to Baltic countries. As the same time large number of Ukrainians, including Western Ukrainians work in Russia and Ukraine strongly depends on money they bring to the country.
One positive in this respect development is growing realistic assessment of the West and the USA and growing understanding that cut of economic ties with Russia dooms many of the remaining industrial facilities. But how effective this line of thinking can be for economic integration remains to be seen.
sinotibetan,October 13, 2011 at 8:07 pm
marknesop, October 11, 2011 at 3:58 pm@kievite
Thanks for your comments. Just some thoughts:
1. With the current difficulties engulfing the EU, why is Putin keen on an organization similar to it? I think EU is unworkable unless it devolves into a loose association of European nations OR European nations within EU cease to be sovereign states.
2. I think Putin ,on the near term, is more interested in Ukraine joining the Customs Union and ultimately the Eurasian Union for mostly strategic reasons. Does the imprisonment of Tymoshenko present Russia with this opportunity?
3. I think Kazakhstan has less anti-Russian sentiments compared to most Central Asian states and I think most Kazakhs are not in favour of Islamism. That said, why do you think Kazakhstan joined the Customs Union? Kazakh opposition leaders are against that union.
4. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are said to be keen to join the Customs Union.
http://en.trend.az/regions/casia/kyrgyzstan/1944379.htmlsinotibetan
Foppe , October 11, 2011 at 6:53 pmSay, folks; our hit-counter took a jump this morning on searches for "Tymoshenko". You can probably guess why – the verdict is in: guilty. Tymoshenko was found guilty by the Pechersky court of exceeding her authority (which she most certainly did if the allegation is true – as apparently it is – that she forced a subordinate to sign the deal after the Verkhovna Rada refused to support it) and of costing the country 1.5 Billion Hryvnia.
This has implications far beyond the immediate, although she could get 10 years. More importantly, as a convicted felon, she cannot stand for election next year. Of course, her supporters shout that this was the whole motivation for the trial, as if she did nothing wrong. Also, it will have a direct – and likely negative – impact on Ukraine's bid for EU association.
yalensis, October 11, 2011 at 9:43 pmYeah, our equivalent of the nyt already called her "The Ukrainian gasprincess" today, though the article is fairly ambiguous (muddled presentation) and lacking a lot of background information.
AK (@sublimeoblivion), October 12, 2011 at 7:03 amMy darling Yulichka… my blonde-braided goddess… that brute Yanukovich is is going to put her in a CAGE?
yalensis, October 12, 2011 at 10:57 amSeven years… ouch.
Though, talking of cages, as a Facebook friend pointed out, the silver lining are the inevitable hot prison fantasies related to Tymoshenko.
Giuseppe Flavio, October 12, 2011 at 12:49 amYeah! They will make a movie called "HOT UKRAINIAN GIRLS GO WILD IN PRISON!" There will be some hair-pulling cat-fights, a prison riot, ass-kicking kung fu, and also a lot of snuggling in bunk beds. Yulichka must have her golden tresses braided every morning by her special "bunk-girl".
yalensis , October 12, 2011 at 11:13 amThere is an interesting analysis on RIA Novosti about Tymoshenko's verdict. According to the author, it is a kind of "Khodorkovsky's arrest" moment for Ukraine. He reports that "Over the last year and a half, criminal charges were brought against 78 members of the former government" (78!) and that according to a recent poll "46% of respondents see the charges against Tymoshenko as justified, while 34% think that the trial is politically motivated. Only 13% were prepared to protest in support of Tymoshenko" and actually only 2000 supporters protested outside the courthouse.
Yeh, if this is a "Khodorkovsky" moment for Ukraine, then European outrage might well push Yanukovich back into arms of Kremlin. Heh heh heh! Those idiot Europeans don't know how to treat Slavic leaders with respect. They already alienated Lukashenko, they could have had him at "hello", but instead insisted on berating and insulting him.
If I were Yanukovich's advisor, I would advise him: "Orient back towards Russia, but bargain hard. Putin wants you more than you want him. Offer him recognition of Ossetia/Abkhazia in return for cheap gas."Giuseppe Flavio,October 12, 2011 at 3:13 pm
I agree that ideological idiocy plays a big part in such decision, but I would add that there are economic reasons as well. A country like Ukraine in the EU would add a lot of expenses in aids to the underdeveloped regions, with the added risk of getting a bigger version of Greece. There are already open talks about jettisoning the PIIGS out of the Eurozone, so the idea to add Ukraine could only be considered in a distant future.
Re. cheap gas, to my knowledge the condition has been already given: enter the Custom Union along with Belarus and Kazakistan.
Giuseppe Flavio,October 12, 2011 at 1:01 am
Given that they've (OWS anyway) already indicated they think Obama is a snake oil salesman, I doubt (1) will come to pass
Reply
Foppe, protesters like these made much more radical statements during the '68 "rebellion", claiming to be Marxist/Leninist/Trotskyist/Maoist/etc. but, besides a few that really remained true to their words, they lived comfortable middle-class lifes and their bosses entered the "bourgeois political establishment", often with right wing parties.Foppe,October 12, 2011 at 8:24 am
that is, of course, true.
Replykievite,October 13, 2011 at 1:40 am
Actually Former Trotskyites played important role in the revitalization of Republican Party.
Particularly James Burnham, brought a strong tendency towards viewing all political national questions purely in ideological terms and rejected the idea of fair play. The idea of 'export of democracy' is a modification of Trotsky original idea of "exporting revolution" using bayonets. Michael Lind in the New Statesman from April 2004 wrote that, "…neoconservative defense intellectuals…call their revolutionary ideology 'Wilsonianism' (after President Woodrow Wilson), but it is really Trotsky's theory of the permanent revolution mingled with the far-right Likud strain of Zionism".
They also introdued the new level of understanding of political struggle and first of all the preeminent importance of total control of media and courts.
James Burnham in his book, The Machiavellians, argued and developed his theory that the emerging new élite would better serve its own interests if it retained some democratic trappings - some weakened opposition, illusion of "free press" and a controlled "circulation of the elites."
From National Review:
"…..This path had been pioneered much earlier by two Trotskyists: James Burnham, who became a founder of National Review, and Irving Kristol, who worked on Encounter magazine. Burnham was joined at NR by Suzanne LaFollette, who, piquantly enough, retained some copyrights to Trotskyist material until her death. But they were not the only people on the right who remained, in some degree, sentimental about their left-wing past. Willmoore Kendall, for example, was, as I recall, a lifelong contributor to relief for Spanish radical leftist refugees living in France. Above all, Burnham and Kristol, in a certain sense, did not renounce their pasts. They acknowledged that they had evolved quite dramatically away from their earlier enthusiasms. But they did not apologize, did not grovel, did not crawl and beg forgiveness for having, at one time, been stirred by the figure of Trotsky……"
Replyyalensis,October 13, 2011 at 11:31 am
Okay (sighing wearily), I gotta stand up for Trotsky again. Trotsky had his issues, but really should not be blamed for the treachery of some of his ex-followers like Burnham, people who switched sides in the class war from supporting proletariat to supporting bourgeoisie. Any more than it would fair to blame Stalin for subsequent careers of analogous renegades, who made the same evolution. (For example, Browder, among others…)
Reply
I would concede that ex-Trotskyists make more effective imperialists than ex-Stalinists, because Trotskyists are generally more intelligent and have a clearer view of political/economic relationships. Stalinists tend to be lower-IQ people who think in more simplistic black/white terms and cannot handle shades of gray. When a Stalinist flips, he becomes a petty crook out to make a buck by selling his past. When a Trotskyist flips, he becomes a formidable opponent to oppressed masses of the world.
I would go further and say that ANY kind of Marxist intellectual training, however rudimentary, can be a devastating weapon if placed in the wrong hands. Christopher Hitchens said the same thing once in an interview: He said that his early training as a Marxist (which he no longer is, as he now roots for international imperialism) helps him correctly analyze objective forces and relationships in the world in a way that, say, your typical anti-intellectual capitalist propagandist is incapable of doing.hoct,October 13, 2011 at 9:51 pm
Christopher Hitchens blowing his own horn - now there's a surprise.
Replyyalensis,October 13, 2011 at 11:25 pm
Ha ha! Touche!
Replyyalensis says: October 12, 2011 at 10:51 am
@Foppe: I hope you are right, that OWS movement realizes Obama is "snake oil salesman." If they are tempted to join his campaign organizers, they should remember how he stabbed Acorn in the back: He used this African-American community organization (=Acorn) to bring out the vote for him in 2008, and then abruptly disbanded them later, after a fake scandal.
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