Why would you object to government creating more demand for labor? Over time, wages will rise and higher wages will fund more
demand for labor produced goods.
How universities, banks and the government turned student debt into America's next financial black hole...
On a wind-swept, frigid night in February 2009, a 37-year-old schoolteacher named Scott Nailor parked his rusted '92 Toyota Tercel
in the parking lot of a Fireside Inn in Auburn, Maine. He picked this spot to have a final reckoning with himself. He was going to
end his life.
Beaten down after more than a decade of struggle with student debt, after years of taking false doors and slipping into various
puddles of bureaucratic quicksand, he was giving up the fight. "This is it, I'm done," he remembers thinking. "I sat there and just
sort of felt like I'm going to take my life. I'm going to find a way to park this car in the garage, with it running or whatever."
Nailor's problems began at 19 years old, when he borrowed for tuition so that he could pursue a bachelor's degree at the University
of Southern Maine. He graduated summa cum laude four years later and immediately got a job in his field, as an English teacher.
Bu t he graduated with $35,000 in debt, a big hill to climb on a part-time teacher's $18,000 salary. He struggled with payments,
and he and his wife then consolidated their student debt, which soon totaled more than $50,000. They declared bankruptcy and defaulted
on the loans. From there he found himself in a loan "rehabilitation" program that added to his overall balance. "That's when the
noose began to tighten," he says.
The collectors called day and night, at work and at home. "In the middle of class too, while I was teaching," he says. He ended
up in another rehabilitation program that put him on a road toward an essentially endless cycle of rising payments. Today, he pays
$471 a month toward "rehabilitation," and, like countless other borrowers, he pays nothing at all toward his real debt, which he
now calculates would cost more than $100,000 to extinguish. "Not one dollar of it goes to principal," says Nailor. "I will never
be able to pay it off. My only hope to escape from this crushing debt is to die."
After repeated phone calls with lending agencies about his ever-rising interest payments, Nailor now believes things will only
get worse with time. "At this rate, I may easily break $1 million in debt before I retire from teaching," he says.
Nailor had more than once reached the stage in his thoughts where he was thinking about how to physically pull off his suicide.
"I'd been there before, that just was the worst of it," he says. "It scared me, bad."
He had a young son and a younger daughter, but Nailor had been so broken by the experience of financial failure that he managed
to convince himself they would be better off without him. What saved him is that he called his wife to say goodbye. "I don't know
why I called my wife. I'm glad I did," he says. "I just wanted her or someone to tell me to pick it up, keep fighting, it's going
to be all right. And she did."
From that moment, Nailor managed to focus on his family. Still, the core problem – the spiraling debt that has taken over his
life, as it has for millions of other Americans – remains.
Horror stories about student debt are nothing new. But this school year marks a considerable worsening of a tale that ought to
have been a national emergency years ago. The government in charge of regulating this mess is now filled with predatory monsters
who have extensive ties to the exploitative for-profit education industry – from Donald Trump himself to Education Secretary Betsy
DeVos, who sets much of the federal loan policy, to Julian Schmoke, onetime dean of the infamous DeVry University, whom Trump appointed
to police fraud in education.
Americans don't understand the student-loan crisis because they've been trained to view the issue in terms of a series of separate,
unrelated problems.
They will read in one place that as of the summer of 2017, a record 8.5 million Americans are in default on their student debt,
with about $1.3 trillion in loans still outstanding.
In another place, voters will read that the cost of higher education is skyrocketing, soaring in a seemingly market-defying arc
that for nearly a decade now has run almost double the rate of inflation. Tuition for a halfway decent school now frequently surpasses
$50,000 a year. How, the average newsreader wonders, can any child not born in a yacht afford to go to school these days?
In a third place, that same reader will see some heartless monster, usually a Republican, threatening to cut federal student lending.
The current bogeyman is Trump, who is threatening to slash the Pell Grant program by $3.9 billion, which would seem to put higher
education even further out of reach for poor and middle-income families. This too seems appalling, and triggers a different kind
of response, encouraging progressive voters to lobby for increased availability for educational lending.
But the separateness of these stories clouds the unifying issue underneath: The education industry as a whole is a con. In fact,
since the mortgage business blew up in 2008, education and student debt is probably our reigning unexposed nation-wide scam.
It's a multiparty affair, what shakedown artists call a "big store scheme," like in the movie The Sting : a complex deception
requiring a big cast to string the mark along every step of the way. In higher education, every party you meet, from the moment you
first set foot on campus, is in on the game.
America as a country has evolved in recent decades into a confederacy of widescale industrial scams. The biggest slices of our
economic pie – sectors like health care, military production, banking, even commercial and residential real estate – have become
crude income-redistribution schemes, often untethered from the market by subsidies or bailouts, with the richest companies benefiting
from gamed or denuded regulatory systems that make profits almost as assured as taxes. Guaranteed-profit scams – that's the last
thing America makes with any level of consistent competence. In that light, Trump, among other things, the former head of a schlock
diploma mill called Trump University, is a perfect president for these times. He's the scammer-in-chief in the Great American Ripoff
Age, a time in which fleecing students is one of our signature achievements.
It starts with the sales pitch colleges make to kids. The thrust of it is usually that people who go to college make lots more
money than the unfortunate dunces who don't. "A bachelor's degree is worth $2.8 million on average over a lifetime" is how Georgetown
University put it. The Census Bureau tells us similarly that a master's degree is worth on average about $1.3 million more than a
high school diploma.
But these stats say more about the increasing uselessness of a high school degree than they do about the value of a college diploma.
Moreover, since virtually everyone at the very highest strata of society has a college degree, the stats are skewed by a handful
of financial titans. A college degree has become a minimal status marker as much as anything else. "I'm sure people who take polo
lessons or sailing lessons earn a lot more on average too," says Alan Collinge of Student Loan Justice, which advocates for debt
forgiveness and other reforms. "Does that mean you should send your kids to sailing school?"
But the pitch works on everyone these days, especially since good jobs for Trump's beloved "poorly educated" are scarce to nonexistent.
Going to college doesn't guarantee a good job, far from it, but the data show that not going dooms most young people to an increasingly
shallow pool of the very crappiest, lowest-paying jobs. There's a lot of stick, but not much carrot, in the education game.
It's a vicious cycle. Since everyone feels obligated to go to college, most everyone who can go, does, creating a glut of graduates.
And as that glut of degree recipients grows, the squeeze on the un-degreed grows tighter, increasing further that original negative
incentive: Don't go to college, and you'll be standing on soup lines by age 25.
With that inducement in place, colleges can charge almost any amount, and kids will pay – so long as they can get the money. And
here we run into problem number two: It's too easy to find that money.
Parents, not wanting their kids to fall behind, will pay every dollar they have. But if they don't have the cash, there is a virtually
unlimited amount of credit available to young people. Proposed cuts to Pell Grants aside, the landscape is filled with public and
private lending, and students gobble it up. Kids who walk into financial-aid offices are often not told what signing their names
on the various aid forms will mean down the line. A lot of kids don't even understand the concept of interest or amortization tables
– they think if they're borrowing $8,000, they're paying back $8,000.
Nailor certainly was unaware of what he was getting into when he was 19. "I had no idea [about interest]," he says. "I just remember
thinking, 'I don't have to worry about it right now. I want to go to school.' " He pauses in disgust. "It's unsettling to remember
how it was like, 'Here, just sign this and you're all set.' I wish I could take the time machine back and slap myself in the face."
The average amount of debt for a student leaving school is skyrocketing even faster than the rate of tuition increase.
In 2016, for instance, the average amount of debt for an exiting college graduate was a staggering $37,172. That's a rise of six
percent over just the previous year. With the average undergraduate interest rate at about 3.7 percent, the interest alone costs
around $115 per month, meaning anyone who can't afford to pay into the principal faces the prospect of $69,000 in payments over 50
years.
So here's the con so far.
You must go to college because you're screwed if you don't.
Costs are outrageously high, but you pay them because you have to, and because the system makes it easy to borrow massive amounts
of money
The third part of the con is the worst: You can't get out of the debt.
Since government lenders in particular have virtually unlimited power to collect on student debt – preying on everything from
salary to income-tax returns – even running is not an option. And since most young people find themselves unable to make their full
payments early on, they often find themselves perpetually paying down interest only, never touching the principal. Our billionaire
president can declare bankruptcy four times, but students are the one class of citizen that may not do it even once.
October 2017 was supposed to represent the first glimmer of light at the end of this tunnel. This month marks the 10th anniversary
of the Public Service Loan Forgiveness program, one of the few avenues for wiping out student debt. The idea, launched by George
W. Bush, was pretty simple: Students could pledge to work 10 years for the government or a nonprofit and have their debt forgiven.
In order to qualify, borrowers had to make payments for 10 years using a complex formula. This month, then, was to start the first
mass wipeouts of debt in the history of American student lending. But more than half of the 700,000 enrollees have already been expunged
from the program for, among other things, failing to certify their incomes on time, one of many bureaucratic tricks employed to limit
forgiveness eligibility. To date, fewer than 500 participants are scheduled to receive loan forgiveness in this first round.
Moreover, Trump has called for the program's elimination by 2018, meaning that any relief that begins this month is likely only
temporary. The only thing that is guaranteed to remain real for the immediate future are the massive profits being generated on the
backs of young people, who before long become old people who, all too often, remain ensnared until their last days in one of the
country's most brilliant and devious moneymaking schemes.
Everybody wins in this madness, except students. Even though many of the loans are originated by the state, most of them are serviced
by private or quasi-private companies like Navient – which until 2014 was the student-loan arm of Sallie Mae – or Nelnet, companies
that reported a combined profit of around $1 billion last year (the U.S. government made a profit of $1.6 billion in 2016!). Debt-collector
companies like Performant (which generated $141.4 million in revenues; the family of Betsy DeVos is a major investor), and most particularly
the colleges and universities, get to prey on the desperation and terror of parents and young people, and in the process rake in
vast sums virtually without fear of market consequence.
About that: Universities, especially public institutions, have successfully defended rising tuition in recent years by blaming
the hikes on reduced support from states. But this explanation was blown to bits in large part due to a bizarre slip-up in the middle
of a controversy over state support of the University of Wisconsin system a few years ago.
In that incident, UW raised tuition by 5.5 percent six years in a row after 2007. The school blamed stresses from the financial
crisis and decreased state aid. But when pressed during a state committee hearing in 2013 about the university's finances, UW system
president Kevin Reilly admitted they held $648 million in reserve, including $414 million in tuition payments. This was excess hidey-hole
cash the school was sitting on, separate and distinct from, say, an endowment fund.
After the university was showered with criticism for hoarding cash at a time when it was gouging students with huge price increases
every year, the school responded by saying, essentially, it only did what all the other kids were doing. UW released data showing
that other major state-school systems across the country were similarly stashing huge amounts of cash. While Wisconsin's surplus
was only 25 percent of its operating budget, for instance, Minnesota's was 29 percent, and Illinois maintained a whopping 34 percent
reserve.
When Collinge, of Student Loan Justice, looked into it, he found that the phenomenon wasn't confined to state schools. Private
schools, too, have been hoarding cash even as they plead poverty and jack up tuition fees. "They're all doing it," he says.
While universities sit on their stockpiles of cash and the loan industry generates record profits, the pain of living in debilitating
debt for many lasts into retirement. Take Veronica Martish. She's a 68-year-old veteran, having served in the armed forces in the
Vietnam era. She's also a grandmother who's never been in trouble and consid?ers herself a patriot. "The thing is, I tried to do
everything right in my life," she says. "But this ruined my life."
This is an $8,000 student loan she took out in 1989, through Sallie Mae. She borrowed the money so she could take courses at Quinebaug
Valley Community College in Connecticut. Five years later, after deaths in her family, she fell behind on her payments and entered
a loan-rehabilitation program. "That's when my nightmare began," she says.
In rehabilitation, Martish's $8,000 loan, with fees and interest, ballooned into a $27,000 debt, which she has been carrying ever
since. She says she's paid more than $63,000 to date and is nowhere near discharging the principal. "By the time I die," she says,
"I will probably pay more than $200,000 toward an $8,000 loan." She pauses. "It's a scam, you see. Nothing ever comes off the loan.
It's all interest and fees. And they chase you until you're old, like me. They never stop. Ever."
And that's the other thing about lending to students: It's the safest grift around.
There's probably no better symbol of the bankruptcy of the education industry than Trump University. The half-literate president's
effort at higher learning drew in suckers with pathetic promises of great real-estate insights (for instance, that Trump "hand-picked"
the instructors) and then charged them truckfuls of cash for get-rich-quick tutorials that students and faculty later described as
"almost completely worthless" and a "total lie." That Trump got to settle a lawsuit on this matter for $25 million and still managed
to be elected president is, ironically, a remarkable testament to the failure of our education system. About the only example that
might be worse is DeVry University, which told students that 90 percent of graduates seeking jobs found them in their fields within
six months of graduation. The FTC found those claims "false and unsubstantiated," and ordered $100 million in refunds and debt relief,
but that was in 2016 – before Trump put DeVry chief Schmoke, of all people, in charge of rooting out education fraud. Like a lot
of things connected to politics lately, it would be funny if it weren't somehow actually happening.?"Yeah, it's the fox guarding
the henhouse," says Collinge. "You could probably find a worse analogy."
But the real problem with the student-loan story is that it's so poorly understood by people not living the nightmare. There's
so much propaganda that blames the borrowers for taking on the debt in the first place that there's often little sympathy for people
in hopeless situations. To make matters worse, band-aid programs that supposedly offer help hypnotize the public into thinking there
are ways out, when the "help" is usually just another trick to add to the balance.
"That's part of the problem with the narrative," says Nailor, the schoolteacher. "People think that there's help, so what are
you complaining about? All you got to do is apply for help."
But the help, he says, coming from a for-profit predatory system, often just makes things worse. "It did for me," he says. "It
does for a lot of people."
The real flaw is associating "higher" education with value. Get a job. Earn an income. Find an interest for your free time.
Raise a family. Spare the four years of wasted time and money.
If you want to take the risk of going into debt to attend college, you better come out with skills that are in high demand.
Otherwise you are much better off going into the military, or going to trade school. BTW, thank the Clintons for making it
impossible to get out of student debt through bankruptcy.
If you want to give out loans to kids then you should accept the risk that they might default on that debt and leave you
with the tab. Let's stop the coddling the banker bullshit. They lobbied to make this loans extremely difficult to discharge
in bankruptcy. They wanted all the profit and none of the risk. Let them assume risk and they'll stop handing out loans to
unqualified borrowers.
Amen! If the money for an "education" is more difficult to obtain, that ought to be a clue as to the value of the information
/ training one is purchasing. The fact it's so easy to get is all one needs to know about the worth of what's being spewed
by those dispensing their so-called knowledge / truth.
Allow the lawful discharge through bankruptcy and punish every single financial institution, (and especially their individual
persons who oversaw the process), that has profited off of ballooning "principle" amounts that even come close to doubling
an original amount with ties to any government official that voted to place these kind of loans in such a category.
This is madness! "Woe to those who make unjust laws, to those who issue oppressive decrees,..." Isaiah 10:1
Finally at least one person gets it. The inability to discharge student loan debt through the taint of bankruptcy is one
of the greatest financial crimes of the last century. Entirely unAmerican. America used to be all about fresh starts. That
is one reason our business life is more vibrant than say many places in Europe with less benign laws. Same goes for individuals.
If you go through the pain of bankruptcy there is no reason you shouldnt get that debt discharged. Whomever voted for that
law, whether Clintons or others should be beaten to death.
Hobart's 38-week combo welder program costs $16,625. A trained kid willing to travel and work in the field would make more
than an engineering graduate who paid a quarter-million for his degree.
No mention made of the rats nest Social Justice program$ infesting college and university campuses across the country, at
untold cost, worthless sullshit.
Not that the student loan thing isn't another banker scam, but the lead story doesn't make sense.
Firstly, educators get
loan forgiveness after a decade or two of public service. And there are income contingent repayment plans. And lawyers have,
in fact, been able to get these things discharged. None of this changes the scam that is giving out high interest loans to
kids to pursue an education. But you might want to start with a sob story that makes more sense. How about a pediatrician with
400k in loans and making 100k a year living in a coastal city? Or how about the art history majors at private liberal arts
schools with 200k in debt making $10/hour as a barista? But teachers are one of the few groups that has an actual federal out.
Maybe. My wife is a teacher in a Title I, low income school, and had been for 13 years..... She also has about 13K remaining in student loans, originally federal direct and Perkins loans. With her over 10 years in title I schools, she should be able to get them forgiven, except that she consolidated these loans
before I met her, and now they are "serviced" by AES, a private lender, and they are no longer eligible for discharge. This I call the "Consolidation Scam."
Pay off debt before you have children. There is no law that you must have children, if the debt makes it impossible. I would
have liked a lot of tings but could not afford them.
Taibbi has some gall to blame Trump, DeVos and others for the student debt explosion, but not one word about Obama or the
government's takeover of the student loan market as part of Obamacare? The student loan market was folded into the ACA as part
of the fake accounting to make the ACA numbers "work". Every market the govenrment insinuates itself into - housing, health
care, college tuition, etc. - gets distorted and costs explode. Taibbi's yet another dishonest liberal.
Yikes- is this factual? If so fuck him. All name, no cattle.
Obama began his turn as destroyer in chief at the height of the Great Recession, everyone & their brother was running into
the safety of college & student loans to pay the bills. I recall watching the local parking lots swell. :) So there's that.
But numbers are off the charts every year because younger millennials expect the govt to forgive all those loans at some
point. That's how many thought 20 years ago & it's worse today.
"The nexus between the student loan program and ObamaCare is purely opportunistic. As the Affordable Care Act was passing
through Congress, its wheels greased by the wholly fraudulent assertion that it didn't need 60 votes to pass the Senate, the
administration decided to put in a provision eliminating the private student loan industry, fully federalizing the program.
What was not widely understood at the time was that it hoped to raid the funds paid by students to provide money for the bottomless
pit known as ObamaCare"
"... While the Tea Party was critical of status-quo neoliberalism -- especially its cosmopolitanism and embrace of globalization and diversity, which was perfectly embodied by Obama's election and presidency -- it was not exactly anti-neoliberal. Rather, it was anti-left neoliberalism-, it represented a more authoritarian, right [wing] version of neoliberalism. ..."
"... Within the context of the 2016 election, Clinton embodied the neoliberal center that could no longer hold. Inequality. Suffering. Collapsing infrastructures. Perpetual war. Anger. Disaffected consent. ..."
"... Both Sanders and Trump were embedded in the emerging left and right responses to neoliberalism's crisis. Specifically, Sanders' energetic campaign -- which was undoubtedly enabled by the rise of the Occupy movement -- proposed a decidedly more "commongood" path. Higher wages for working people. Taxes on the rich, specifically the captains of the creditocracy. ..."
"... In other words, Trump supporters may not have explicitly voted for neoliberalism, but that's what they got. In fact, as Rottenberg argues, they got a version of right neoliberalism "on steroids" -- a mix of blatant plutocracy and authoritarianism that has many concerned about the rise of U.S. fascism. ..."
"... We can't know what would have happened had Sanders run against Trump, but we can think seriously about Trump, right and left neoliberalism, and the crisis of neoliberal hegemony. In other words, we can think about where and how we go from here. As I suggested in the previous chapter, if we want to construct a new world, we are going to have to abandon the entangled politics of both right and left neoliberalism; we have to reject the hegemonic frontiers of both disposability and marketized equality. After all, as political philosopher Nancy Fraser argues, what was rejected in the election of 2016 was progressive, left neoliberalism. ..."
"... While the rise of hyper-right neoliberalism is certainly nothing to celebrate, it does present an opportunity for breaking with neoliberal hegemony. We have to proceed, as Gary Younge reminds us, with the realization that people "have not rejected the chance of a better world. They have not yet been offered one."' ..."
In Chapter 1, we traced the rise of our neoliberal conjuncture back to the crisis of liberalism during the late nineteenth and
early twentieth centuries, culminating in the Great Depression. During this period, huge transformations in capitalism proved impossible
to manage with classical laissez-faire approaches. Out of this crisis, two movements emerged, both of which would eventually shape
the course of the twentieth century and beyond. The first, and the one that became dominant in the aftermath of the crisis, was the
conjuncture of embedded liberalism. The crisis indicated that capitalism wrecked too much damage on the lives of ordinary citizens.
People (white workers and families, especially) warranted social protection from the volatilities and brutalities of capitalism.
The state's public function was expanded to include the provision of a more substantive social safety net, a web of protections for
people and a web of constraints on markets. The second response was the invention of neoliberalism. Deeply skeptical of the common-good
principles that undergirded the emerging social welfare state, neoliberals began organizing on the ground to develop a "new" liberal
govemmentality, one rooted less in laissez-faire principles and more in the generalization of competition and enterprise. They worked
to envision a new society premised on a new social ontology, that is, on new truths about the state, the market, and human beings.
Crucially, neoliberals also began building infrastructures and institutions for disseminating their new' knowledges and theories
(i.e., the Neoliberal Thought Collective), as well as organizing politically to build mass support for new policies (i.e., working
to unite anti-communists, Christian conservatives, and free marketers in common cause against the welfare state). When cracks in
embedded liberalism began to surface -- which is bound to happen with any moving political equilibrium -- neoliberals were there
with new stories and solutions, ready to make the world anew.
We are currently living through the crisis of neoliberalism. As I write this book, Donald Trump has recently secured the U.S.
presidency, prevailing in the national election over his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. Throughout the election, I couldn't
help but think back to the crisis of liberalism and the two responses that emerged. Similarly, after the Great Recession of 2008,
we've saw two responses emerge to challenge our unworkable status quo, which dispossesses so many people of vital resources for individual
and collective life. On the one hand, we witnessed the rise of Occupy Wall Street. While many continue to critique the movement for
its lack of leadership and a coherent political vision, Occupy was connected to burgeoning movements across the globe, and our current
political horizons have been undoubtedly shaped by the movement's success at repositioning class and economic inequality within our
political horizon. On the other hand, we saw' the rise of the Tea Party, a right-wing response to the crisis. While the Tea Party
was critical of status-quo neoliberalism -- especially its cosmopolitanism and embrace of globalization and diversity, which was
perfectly embodied by Obama's election and presidency -- it was not exactly anti-neoliberal. Rather, it was anti-left neoliberalism-,
it represented a more authoritarian, right [wing] version of neoliberalism.
Within the context of the 2016 election, Clinton embodied the neoliberal center that could no longer hold. Inequality. Suffering.
Collapsing infrastructures. Perpetual war. Anger. Disaffected consent. There were just too many fissures and fault lines in
the glossy, cosmopolitan world of left neoliberalism and marketized equality. Indeed, while Clinton ran on status-quo stories of
good governance and neoliberal feminism, confident that demographics and diversity would be enough to win the election, Trump effectively
tapped into the unfolding conjunctural crisis by exacerbating the cracks in the system of marketized equality, channeling political
anger into his celebrity brand that had been built on saying "f*** you" to the culture of left neoliberalism (corporate diversity,
political correctness, etc.) In fact, much like Clinton's challenger in the Democratic primary, Benie Sanders, Trump was a crisis
candidate.
Both Sanders and Trump were embedded in the emerging left and right responses to neoliberalism's crisis. Specifically, Sanders'
energetic campaign -- which was undoubtedly enabled by the rise of the Occupy movement -- proposed a decidedly more "commongood"
path. Higher wages for working people. Taxes on the rich, specifically the captains of the creditocracy.
Universal health care. Free higher education. Fair trade. The repeal of Citizens United. Trump offered a different response to
the crisis. Like Sanders, he railed against global trade deals like NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). However, Trump's
victory was fueled by right neoliberalism's culture of cruelty. While Sanders tapped into and mobilized desires for a more egalitarian
and democratic future, Trump's promise was nostalgic, making America "great again" -- putting the nation back on "top of the world,"
and implying a time when women were "in their place" as male property, and minorities and immigrants were controlled by the state.
Thus, what distinguished Trump's campaign from more traditional Republican campaigns was that it actively and explicitly pitted
one group's equality (white men) against everyone else's (immigrants, women, Muslims, minorities, etc.). As Catherine Rottenberg
suggests, Trump offered voters a choice between a multiracial society (where folks are increasingly disadvantaged and dispossessed)
and white supremacy (where white people would be back on top). However, "[w]hat he neglected to state," Rottenberg writes,
is that neoliberalism flourishes in societies where the playing field is already stacked against various segments of society,
and that it needs only a relatively small select group of capital-enhancing subjects, while everyone else is ultimately dispensable.
1
In other words, Trump supporters may not have explicitly voted for neoliberalism, but that's what they got. In fact, as Rottenberg
argues, they got a version of right neoliberalism "on steroids" -- a mix of blatant plutocracy and authoritarianism that has many
concerned about the rise of U.S. fascism.
We can't know what would have happened had Sanders run against Trump, but we can think seriously about Trump, right and left
neoliberalism, and the crisis of neoliberal hegemony. In other words, we can think about where and how we go from here. As I suggested
in the previous chapter, if we want to construct a new world, we are going to have to abandon the entangled politics of both right
and left neoliberalism; we have to reject the hegemonic frontiers of both disposability and marketized equality. After all, as political
philosopher Nancy Fraser argues, what was rejected in the election of 2016 was progressive, left neoliberalism.
While the rise of hyper-right neoliberalism is certainly nothing to celebrate, it does present an opportunity for breaking
with neoliberal hegemony. We have to proceed, as Gary Younge reminds us, with the realization that people "have not rejected the
chance of a better world. They have not yet been offered one."'
Mark Fisher, the author of Capitalist Realism, put it this way:
The long, dark night of the end of history has to be grasped as an enormous opportunity. The very oppressive pervasiveness
of capitalist realism means that even glimmers of alternative political and economic possibilities can have a disproportionately
great effect. The tiniest event can tear a hole in the grey curtain of reaction which has marked the horizons of possibility under
capitalist realism. From a situation in which nothing can happen, suddenly anything is possible again.4
I think that, for the first time in the history of U.S. capitalism, the vast majority of people might sense the lie of liberal,
capitalist democracy. They feel anxious, unfree, disaffected. Fantasies of the good life have been shattered beyond repair for most
people. Trump and this hopefully brief triumph of right neoliberalism will soon lay this bare for everyone to see. Now, with Trump,
it is absolutely clear: the rich rule the world; we are all disposable; this is no democracy. The question becomes: How will we show
up for history? Will there be new stories, ideas, visions, and fantasies to attach to? How can we productively and meaningful intervene
in the crisis of neoliberalism? How can we "tear a hole in the grey curtain" and open up better worlds? How can we put what we've
learned to use and begin to imagine and build a world beyond living in competition? I hope our critical journey through the neoliberal
conjuncture has enabled you to begin to answer these questions.
More specifically, in recent decades, especially since the end of the Cold War, our common-good sensibilities have been channeled
into neoliberal platforms for social change and privatized action, funneling our political energies into brand culture and marketized
struggles for equality (e.g., charter schools, NGOs and non-profits, neoliberal antiracism and feminism). As a result, despite our
collective anger and disaffected consent, we find ourselves stuck in capitalist realism with no real alternative. Like the neoliberal
care of the self, we are trapped in a privatized mode of politics that relies on cruel optimism; we are attached, it seems, to politics
that inspire and motivate us to action, while keeping us living in competition.
To disrupt the game, we need to construct common political horizons against neoliberal hegemony. We need to use our common stories
and common reason to build common movements against precarity -- for within neoliberalism, precarity is what ultimately has the potential
to thread all of our lives together. Put differently, the ultimate fault line in the neoliberal conjiuicture is the way it subjects
us all to precarity and the biopolitics of disposability, thereby creating conditions of possibility for new coalitions across race,
gender, citizenship, sexuality, and class. Recognizing this potential for coalition in the face of precarization is the most pressing
task facing those who are yearning for a new world. The question is: How do we get there? How do we realize these coalitional potentialities
and materialize common horizons?
Ultimately, mapping the neoliberal conjuncture through everyday life in enterprise culture has not only provided some direction
in terms of what we need; it has also cultivated concrete and practical intellectual resources for political interv ention and social
interconnection -- a critical toolbox for living in common. More specifically, this book has sought to provide resources for thinking
and acting against the four Ds: resources for engaging in counter-conduct, modes of living that refuse, on one hand, to conduct one's
life according to the norm of enterprise, and on the other, to relate to others through the norm of competition. Indeed, we need
new ways of relating, interacting, and living as friends, lovers, workers, vulnerable bodies, and democratic people if we are to
write new stories, invent new govemmentalities, and build coalitions for new worlds.
Against Disimagination: Educated Hope and Affirmative Speculation
We need to stop turning inward, retreating into ourselves, and taking personal responsibility for our lives (a task which is ultimately
impossible). Enough with the disimagination machine! Let's start looking outward, not inward -- to the broader structures that undergird
our lives. Of course, we need to take care of ourselves; we must survive. But I firmly believe that we can do this in ways both big
and small, that transform neoliberal culture and its status-quo stories.
Here's the thing I tell my students all the time. You cannot escape neoliberalism. It is the air we breathe, the water in which
we swim. No job, practice of social activism, program of self-care, or relationship will be totally free from neoliberal impingements
and logics. There is no pure "outside" to get to or work from -- that's just the nature of the neoliberalism's totalizing cultural
power. But let's not forget that neoliberalism's totalizing cultural power is also a source of weakness. Potential for resistance
is everywhere, scattered throughout our everyday lives in enterprise culture. Our critical toolbox can help us identify these potentialities
and navigate and engage our conjuncture in ways that tear open up those new worlds we desire.
In other words, our critical perspective can help us move through the world with what Henry Giroux calls educated hope. Educated
hope means holding in tension the material realities of power and the contingency of history. This orientation of educated hope knows
very well what we're up against. However, in the face of seemingly totalizing power, it also knows that neoliberalism can never become
total because the future is open. Educated hope is what allows us to see the fault lines, fissures, and potentialities of the present
and emboldens us to think and work from that sliver of social space where we do have political agency and freedom to construct a
new world. Educated hope is what undoes the power of capitalist realism. It enables affirmative speculation (such as discussed in
Chapter 5), which does not try to hold the future to neoliberal horizons (that's cruel optimism!), but instead to affirm our commonalities
and the potentialities for the new worlds they signal. Affirmative speculation demands a different sort of risk calculation and management.
It senses how little we have to lose and how much we have to gain from knocking the hustle of our lives.
Against De-democratization: Organizing and Collective Coverning
We can think of educated hope and affirmative speculation as practices of what Wendy Brown calls "bare democracy" -- the basic
idea that ordinary' people like you and me should govern our lives in common, that we should critique and try to change our world,
especially the exploitative and oppressive structures of power that maintain social hierarchies and diminish lives. Neoliberal culture
works to stomp out capacities for bare democracy by transforming democratic desires and feelings into meritocratic desires and feelings.
In neoliberal culture, utopian sensibilities are directed away from the promise of collective utopian sensibilities are directed
away from the promise of collective governing to competing for equality.
We have to get back that democractic feeling! As Jeremy Gilbert taught us, disaffected consent is a post-democratic orientation.
We don't like our world, but we don't think we can do anything about it. So, how do we get back that democratic feeling? How do we
transform our disaffected consent into something new? As I suggested in the last chapter, we organize. Organizing is simply about
people coming together around a common horizon and working collectively to materialize it. In this way, organizing is based on the
idea of radical democracy, not liberal democracy. While the latter is based on formal and abstract rights guaranteed by the state,
radical democracy insists that people should directly make the decisions that impact their lives, security, and well-being. Radical
democracy is a practice of collective governing: it is about us hashing out, together in communities, what matters, and working in
common to build a world based on these new sensibilities.
The work of organizing is messy, often unsatisfying, and sometimes even scary. Organizing based on affirmative speculation and
coalition-building, furthermore, will have to be experimental and uncertain. As Lauren Berlant suggests, it means "embracing the
discomfort of affective experience in a truly open social life that no
one has ever experienced." Organizing through and for the common "requires more adaptable infrastructures. Keep forcing the existing
infrastructures to do what they don't know how to do. Make new ways to be local together, where local doesn't require a physical
neighborhood." 5 What Berlant is saying is that the work of bare democracy requires unlearning, and detaching from, our
current stories and infrastructures in order to see and make things work differently. Organizing for a new world is not easy -- and
there are no guarantees -- but it is the only way out of capitalist realism.
Getting back democratic feeling will at once require and help us lo move beyond the biopolitics of disposability and entrenched
systems of inequality. On one hand, organizing will never be enough if it is not animated by bare democracy, a sensibility that each
of us is equally important when it comes to the project of determining our lives in common. Our bodies, our hurts, our dreams, and
our desires matter regardless of our race, gender, sexuality, or citizenship, and regardless of how r much capital (economic,
social, or cultural) we have. Simply put, in a radical democracy, no one is disposable. This bare-democratic sense of equality must
be foundational to organizing and coalition-building. Otherwise, we will always and inevitably fall back into a world of inequality.
On the other hand, organizing and collective governing will deepen and enhance our sensibilities and capacities for radical equality.
In this context, the kind of self-enclosed individualism that empowers and underwrites the biopolitics of disposability melts away,
as we realize the interconnectedness of our lives and just how amazing it feels to
fail, we affirm our capacities for freedom, political intervention, social interconnection, and collective social doing.
Against Dispossession: Shared Security and Common Wealth
Thinking and acting against the biopolitics of disposability goes hand-in-hand with thinking and acting against dispossession.
Ultimately, when we really understand and feel ourselves in relationships of interconnection with others, we want for them as we
want for ourselves. Our lives and sensibilities of what is good and just are rooted in radical equality, not possessive or self-appreciating
individualism. Because we desire social security and protection, we also know others desire and deserve the same.
However, to really think and act against dispossession means not only advocating for shared security and social protection, but
also for a new society that is built on the egalitarian production and distribution of social wealth that we all produce. In this
sense, we can take Marx's critique of capitalism -- that wealth is produced collectively but appropriated individually -- to heart.
Capitalism was built on the idea that one class -- the owners of the means of production -- could exploit and profit from the collective
labors of everyone else (those who do not own and thus have to work), albeit in very different ways depending on race, gender, or
citizenship. This meant that, for workers of all stripes, their lives existed not for themselves, but for others (the appropriating
class), and that regardless of what we own as consumers, we are not really free or equal in that bare-democratic sense of the word.
If we want to be really free, we need to construct new material and affective social infrastructures for our common wealth. In
these new infrastructures, wealth must not be reduced to economic value; it must be rooted in social value. Here, the production
of wealth does not exist as a separate sphere from the reproduction of our lives. In other words, new infrastructures, based on the
idea of common wealth, will not be set up to exploit our labor, dispossess our communities, or to divide our lives. Rather, they
will work to provide collective social resources and care so that we may all be free to pursue happiness, create beautiful and/or
useful things, and to realize our potential within a social world of living in common. Crucially, to create the conditions for these
new, democratic forms of freedom rooted in radical equality, we need to find ways to refuse and exit the financial networks of Empire
and the dispossessions of creditocracy, building new systems that invite everyone to participate in the ongoing production of new
worlds and the sharing of the wealth that we produce in common.
It's not up to me to tell you exactly where to look, but I assure you that potentialities for these new worlds are everywhere
around you.
"Controlling the narrative" is politically correct term for censorship.
Notable quotes:
"... I suspect most of the people who write all that furious invective on the Internet, professional polemicists and semiliterate commenters alike, are lashing out because they've been hurt -- their sense of fairness or decency has been outraged, or they feel personally wounded or threatened. ..."
"... "controlling the narrative" by neoliberal MSM is the key of facilitating the neoliberal "groupthink". Much like was in the USSR with "communist" groupthink. This is a step in the direction of the theocratic society (which the USSR definitely was). ..."
"... In other words "controlling the narrative" is the major form of neoliberal MSM "war on reality" as the neoliberal ideology is now completely discredited and can be sustained only by cult-style methods. ..."
Maybe this is the same kind of clinical detachment doctors have to cultivate, a way of distancing oneself from the subject,
protecting yourself against a crippling empathy. I won't say that writers or artists are more sensitive than other people, but
it may be that they're less able to handle their own emotions.
It may be that art, like drugs, is a way of dulling or controlling pain. Eloquently articulating a feeling is one way to avoid
actually experiencing it.
Words are only symbols, noises or marks on paper, and turning the messy, ugly stuff of life into language renders it inert
and manageable for the author, even as it intensifies it for the reader.
It's a nerdy, sensitive kid's way of turning suffering into something safely abstract, an object of contemplation.
I suspect most of the people who write all that furious invective on the Internet, professional polemicists and semiliterate
commenters alike, are lashing out because they've been hurt -- their sense of fairness or decency has been outraged, or
they feel personally wounded or threatened.
"controlling the narrative" by neoliberal MSM is the key of facilitating the neoliberal "groupthink". Much like was in the
USSR with "communist" groupthink. This is a step in the direction of the theocratic society (which the USSR definitely was).
In other words "controlling the narrative" is the major form of neoliberal MSM "war on reality" as the neoliberal ideology
is now completely discredited and can be sustained only by cult-style methods.
They want to invoke your emotions in the necessary direction and those emotions serve as a powerful filter, a firewall which
will prevents you from seeing any alternative facts which taken as whole form an "alternative narrative".
It also creates certain taboo, such as "don't publish anything from RT", or you automatically become "Putin's stooge." But
some incoherent blabbing of a crazy neocon in Boston Globe is OK.
This is an old and a very dirty game, a variation of method used for centuries by high demand cults:
"Why, of course, the people don't want war. Why would some poor slob on a farm want to risk his life in a war when the best
that he can get out of it is to come back to his farm in one piece.
Naturally, the common people don't want war; neither in Russia nor in England nor in America, nor for that matter in Germany.
That is understood.
But, after all, it is the leaders of the country who determine the policy and it is always a simple matter to drag the people
along, whether it is a democracy or a fascist dictatorship or a Parliament or a Communist dictatorship
Voice or no voice, the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell
them they are being attacked and denounce the pacifists for lack of patriotism and exposing the country to danger. It works
the same way in any country."
– Hermann Goering (as told to Gustav Gilbert during the Nuremberg trials)
You need to be able to decipher this "suggested" set of emotions and detach it from the set of facts provided by neoliberal
MSM. It might help to view things "Sine ira et studio" (
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sine_ira_et_studio
)
That helps to destroy the official neoliberal narrative.
Here skepticism (whether natural or acquired) can be of great help in fighting groupthink pushed by neoliberal MSM.
We are all guilty of this one sidedness, but I think that we need to put some efforts to move in direction of higher level
of skepticism toward our own views and probably provide at least links to alternative views.
Nationalism really represent a growing threat to neoliberalism. It is clear the the rise of
nationalism was caused by the triumph of neoliberalism all over the globe. As neoliberal
ideology collapsed in 2008, thing became really interesting now. Looks like
1920th-1940th will be replayed on a new level with the USA neoliberal empire under stress from
new challengers instead of British empire.
Rumor about the death of neoliberalism are slightly exaggerated ;-). This social system still
has a lot of staying power. you need some external shock like the need of cheap oil (defined as
sustainable price of oil over $100 per barrel) to shake it again. Of some financial crisis similar
to the crisis of 2008. Currently there is still
no alternative social order that can replace it. Collapse of the USSR discredited both socialism even
of different flavors then was practiced in the USSR. National socialism would be a step back from
neoliberalism.
Notable quotes:
"... The retreat of [neo]liberalism is very visible in Asia. All Southeast Asian states have turned their backs on liberal democracy, especially Indonesia, the Philippines and Myanmar in the last decade. This NYT article notes that liberalism has essentially died in Japan, and that all political contests are now between what the west would consider conservatives: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/15/opinion/liberalism-japan-election.html ..."
"... What is today called "Liberalism" and "Conservatism" both are simply corrupted labels applied to the same top-down corporate-fascistic elite rule that I think Mr. Buchanan once referred to as "two wings of the same bird of prey." ..."
"... Nobody at the top cares about 'diversity.' They care about the easy profits that come from ever cheaper labor. 'Diversity' is not suicide but rather murder: instigated by a small number of very powerful people who have decided that the long-term health of their nations and civilization is less important than short-term profits and power. ..."
"... Hillary and Obama are to the right of the President that Buchanan served in his White House. Richard Nixon was to the Left of both Hillary and Obama. I can't even imagine Hillary accepting and signing into law a 'Clean Water Act' or enacting Price Controls to fight inflation. No way. Heck would freeze over before Hillary would do something so against her Banker Backers. ..."
"... It's sure that financial (neo)liberalism was in a growth phase prior to year 2000 (under Greenspan, the "Maestro") with a general belief that the economy could be "fine tuned" with risk eliminated using sophisticated financial instruments, monetary policy etc. ..."
"... If [neo] Liberalism is a package, then two heavy financial blows that shook the whole foundation were the collapse of the dot.com bubble (2000) and the mortgage bubble (2008). ..."
"... And, other (self-serving) neoliberal stories are now seen as false. For example, that the US is an "advanced post-industrial service economy", that out-sourcing would "free up Americans for higher skilled/higher wage employment" or that "the US would always gain from tariff free trade". ..."
"... The basic divide is surely Nationalism (America First) vs. Globalism (Neo-Liberalism), as shown by the last US Presidential election. ..."
"... Neoliberalism, of which the Clintons are acolytes, supports Free Trade and Open Borders. Although it claims to support World Government, in actual fact it supports corporatism. This is explicit in the TPPA Trump vetoed. Under the corporate state, the state controls the corporations, as Don Benito did in Italy. Under corporatism, the corporations tell the state what to do, as has been the case in America since at least the Clinton Presidency. ..."
"... But I recall that Pat B also said neoconservatism was on its way out a few years after Iraq war II and yet it's stronger than ever and its adherents are firmly ensconced in the joint chiefs of staff, the pentagon, Congress and the White House. It's also spawned a close cousin in liberal interventionism. ..."
Asked to name the defining attributes of the America we wish to become, many liberals would answer
that we must realize our manifest destiny since 1776, by becoming more equal, more diverse and more
democratic -- and the model for mankind's future.
Equality, diversity, democracy -- this is the holy trinity of the post-Christian secular state
at whose altars Liberal Man worships.
But the congregation worshiping these gods is shrinking. And even Europe seems to be rejecting
what America has on offer.
In a retreat from diversity, Catalonia just voted to separate from Spain. The Basque and Galician
peoples of Spain are following the Catalan secession crisis with great interest.
The right-wing People's Party and far-right Freedom Party just swept 60 percent of Austria's vote,
delivering the nation to 31-year-old Sebastian Kurz, whose anti-immigrant platform was plagiarized
from the Freedom Party. Summarized it is: Austria for the Austrians!
Lombardy, whose capital is Milan, and Veneto will vote Sunday for greater autonomy from Rome.
South Tyrol (Alto Adige), severed from Austria and ceded to Italy at Versailles, written off by
Hitler to appease Mussolini after his Anschluss, is astir anew with secessionism. Even the Sicilians
are talking of separation.
By Sunday, the Czech Republic may have a new leader, billionaire Andrej Babis. Writes The Washington
Post, Babis "makes a sport of attacking the European Union and says NATO's mission is outdated."
Platform Promise: Keep the Muslim masses out of the motherland.
To ethnonationalists, their countrymen are not equal to all others, but superior in rights. Many
may nod at Thomas Jefferson's line that "All men are created equal," but they no more practice that
in their own nations than did Jefferson in his
... ... ...
European peoples and parties are today using democratic means to achieve "illiberal" ends. And
it is hard to see what halts the drift away from liberal democracy toward the restrictive right.
For in virtually every nation, there is a major party in opposition, or a party in power, that holds
deeply nationalist views.
European elites may denounce these new parties as "illiberal" or fascist, but it is becoming apparent
that it may be liberalism itself that belongs to yesterday. For more and more Europeans see the invasion
of the continent along the routes whence the invaders came centuries ago, not as a manageable problem
but an existential crisis.
To many Europeans, it portends an irreversible alteration in the character of the countries their
grandchildren will inherit, and possibly an end to their civilization. And they are not going to
be deterred from voting their fears by being called names that long ago lost their toxicity from
overuse.
And as Europeans decline to celebrate the racial, ethnic, creedal and cultural diversity extolled
by American elites, they also seem to reject the idea that foreigners should be treated equally in
nations created for their own kind.
Europeans seem to admire more, and model their nations more, along the lines of the less diverse
America of the Eisenhower era, than on the polyglot America of 2017.
And Europe seems to be moving toward immigration polices more like the McCarran-Walter Act of
1950 than the open borders bill that Sen. Edward Kennedy shepherded through the Senate in 1965.
Kennedy promised that the racial and ethnic composition of the America of the 1960s would not
be overturned, and he questioned the morality and motives of any who implied that it would.
Liberalism is the naivete of 18th century elites, no different than today. Modernity as you
know it is unsustainable, mostly because equality isn't real, identity has value for most humans,
pluralism is by definition fractious, and deep down most people wish to follow a wise strongman
leader who represents their interests first and not a vague set of universalist values.
Blind devotion to liberal democracy is another one of those times when white people take an
abstract concept to weird extremes. It is short-sighted and autistically narrow minded. Just because
you have an oppressive king doesn't mean everyone should be equals. Just because there was slavery/genocide
doesn't mean diversity is good.
The retreat of [neo]liberalism is very visible in Asia. All Southeast Asian states have turned their
backs on liberal democracy, especially Indonesia, the Philippines and Myanmar in the last decade.
This NYT article notes that liberalism has essentially died in Japan, and that all political contests
are now between what the west would consider conservatives:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/15/opinion/liberalism-japan-election.html
Good riddance. The idea that egalitarianism is more advanced than hierarchy has always been
false, and flies against the long arc of history. Time for nationalists around the world to smash
liberal democracy and build a new modernity based on actual humanism, with respect to hierarchies
and the primacy of majorities instead of guilt and pathological compassion dressed up as political
ideology.
"Liberalism" is not dying. "Liberalism" is dead, and has been since at least 1970.
What is today called "Liberalism" and "Conservatism" both are simply corrupted labels applied
to the same top-down corporate-fascistic elite rule that I think Mr. Buchanan once referred to
as "two wings of the same bird of prey."
Nobody at the top cares about 'diversity.' They care about the easy profits that come from
ever cheaper labor. 'Diversity' is not suicide but rather murder: instigated by a small number
of very powerful people who have decided that the long-term health of their nations and civilization
is less important than short-term profits and power.
Its been dead for nearly 20 years now. Liberalism has long been the Monty Python parrot nailed
to its perch. At this point, the term is mainly kept alive in right-wing attacks by people who
lack the imagination to change their habitual targets for so long.
To my eye, the last 'liberal' politician died in a susupicious plane crash in 2000 as the Bush
Republicans were taking the White House by their famous 5-4 vote/coup and also needed to claim
control of the Senate. So, the last authentic 'liberal' Senator, Paul Wellstone of MN was killed
in a suspicious plane crash that was never properly explained.
Hillary and Obama are to the right of the President that Buchanan served in his White House.
Richard Nixon was to the Left of both Hillary and Obama. I can't even imagine Hillary accepting
and signing into law a 'Clean Water Act' or enacting Price Controls to fight inflation. No way.
Heck would freeze over before Hillary would do something so against her Banker Backers.
And, at the root, that is the key. The 'Liberals' that the right now rails against are strongly
backed and supported by the Wall Street Banks and other corporate leaders. The 'Liberals' have
pushed for a government Of the Bankers, By the Bankers and For the Bankers. The 'Liberals' now
are in favor of Endless Unconstitutional War around the world.
Which can only mean that the term 'Liberal' has been so completely morphed away from its original
meanings to be completely worthless.
The last true Liberal in American politics was Paul Wellstone. And even by the time he died
for his sins, he was calling himself a "progressive" because after the Clintons and the Gores
had so distorted the term Liberal it was meaningless. Or it had come to mean a society ruled by
bankers, a society at constant war and throwing money constantly at a gigantic war machine, a
society of censorship where the government needed to control all music lyrics, the same corrupt
government where money could by anything from a night in the Lincoln Bedroom to a Presidential
Pardon or any other government favor.
Thus, 'Liberals' were a dead movement even by 2000, when the people who actually believed in
the American People over the profits of bankers were calling themselves Progressives in disgust
at the misuse of the term Liberal. And now, Obama and Hillary have trashed and distorted even
the term Progressive into bombing the world 365 days a year and still constantly throwing money
at the military machine and the problems it invents.
So, Liberalism is so long dead that if you exumed the grave you'd only find dust. And Pat must
be getting senile and just throwing back out the same lines he once wrote as a speechwriter for
the last Great Lefty President Richard Nixon.
Another question is whether this is wishful thinking from Pat or some kind of reality.
I think that he's right, that Liberalism is a dying faith, and it's interesting to check the
decline.
It's sure that financial (neo)liberalism was in a growth phase prior to year 2000 (under
Greenspan, the "Maestro") with a general belief that the economy could be "fine tuned" with risk
eliminated using sophisticated financial instruments, monetary policy etc.
If [neo] Liberalism is a package, then two heavy financial blows that shook the whole foundation
were the collapse of the dot.com bubble (2000) and the mortgage bubble (2008).
And, other (self-serving) neoliberal stories are now seen as false. For example, that the
US is an "advanced post-industrial service economy", that out-sourcing would "free up Americans
for higher skilled/higher wage employment" or that "the US would always gain from tariff free
trade".
In fact, the borderless global "world is flat" dogma is now seen as enabling a rootless hyper-rich
global elite to draw on a sea of globalized serf labour with little or no identity, while their
media and SWJ activists operate a scorched earth defense against any sign of opposition.
The basic divide is surely Nationalism (America First) vs. Globalism (Neo-Liberalism),
as shown by the last US Presidential election.
A useful analogy might be Viktor Orbán. He started out as a leader of a liberal party, Fidesz,
but then over time started moving to the right. It is often speculated that he started it for
cynical reasons, like seeing how the right was divided and that there was essentially a vacuum
there for a strong conservative party, but there's little doubt he totally internalized it. There's
also little doubt (and at the time he and a lot of his fellow party leaders talked about it a
lot) that as he (they) started a family and having children, they started to realize how conservatism
kinda made more sense than liberalism.
With Kurz, there's the possibility for this path. However, he'd need to start a family soon
for that to happen. At that age Orbán was already married with children
Neoliberalism, of which the Clintons are acolytes, supports Free Trade and Open Borders.
Although it claims to support World Government, in actual fact it supports corporatism. This is
explicit in the TPPA Trump vetoed. Under the corporate state, the state controls the corporations,
as Don Benito did in Italy. Under corporatism, the corporations tell the state what to do, as
has been the case in America since at least the Clinton Presidency.
Richard Nixon was a capitalist, not a corporatist. He was a supporter of proper competition
laws, unlike any President since Clinton. Socially, he was interventionist, though this may have
been to lessen criticism of his Vietnam policies. Anyway, his bussing and desegregation policies
were a long-term failure.
Price Control was quickly dropped, as it was in other Western countries. Long term Price Control,
as in present day Venezuela, is economically disastrous.
Let's hope liberalism is a dying faith and that is passes from the Western world. If not it will
destroy the West, so if it doesn't die a natural death then we must euthanize it. For the evidence
is in and it has begat feminism, anti-white racism, demographic winter, mass third world immigration
and everything else that ails the West and has made it the sick and dying man of the world.
But I recall that Pat B also said neoconservatism was on its way out a few years after
Iraq war II and yet it's stronger than ever and its adherents are firmly ensconced in the joint
chiefs of staff, the pentagon, Congress and the White House. It's also spawned a close cousin
in liberal interventionism.
What Pat refers to as "liberalism" is now left wing totalitarianism and anti-white hatred and
it's fanatically trying to remain relevant by lashing out and blacklisting, deplatforming, demonetizing,
and physically assaulting all of its enemies on the right who are gaining strength much to their
chagrin. They resort to these methods because they can't win an honest debate and in a true free
marketplace of ideas they lose.
"... managers, janitors, lawyers, nurses, librarians, bartenders, and everyone else who had a job in 2016 ..."
"... Total US Income = $18,750,000,000,000 Combined Wages & Salaries of All Employed Folks = $6,968,053,985,200 Income from Federal Social Benefits = $2,039,300,000,000 ..."
"... Total Income - (Wages & Salaries + Benefits) = $9,763,546,014,800 ..."
"... every commodity ..."
"... every last grain ..."
"... every waste bin ..."
"... every single cappuccino ..."
"... Property income ..."
"... unearned income ..."
"... interest ..."
"... interest, rent, and corporate profits ..."
"... with ..."
"... just as valuable ..."
"... honest work ..."
"... In solidarity, John Laurits ..."
"... If you enjoy these posts, consider buying the writer a cup of coffee ..."
"... or making a monthly donation ..."
"... -- it's like a voluntary subscription directly to an artist & journalist ..."
Working Class w/ No Living Wage: The
Absurd Math of US Income
As the stock market gleefully claws its way to
more record-breaking highs,
Forbes reports
a full 56% of US Americans now have
less than $1,000 to their names -- and 25% have
less than $100
. But the
economy, as they say, is
booming.
Even with 165 million on the
breadline and an hourly minimum wage of only $7.25 nationally, surging Amazon share prices have
added $13 billion to Jeff Bezos' net-worth
since
mid-September. For perspective, $13 billion is enough to pay the student-loan debts of 432,000 millennials.
It's also plenty to end world hunger for a year, according to
the International Institute
for Sustainable Development
. And Bezos -- now the world's richest man -- smashes a bottle of
organic champagne to celebrate his new wind-farm. The question is -- how do markets grow as the wealth of the
people shrinks and wages fall? What do the commentariat mean by "economic growth" when the nation's income can
hardly keep half of its people's heads above water?
The National Income:
How Much Value is Created by the US Economy?
There are a lot of ways to measure economies -- for
example,
gross domestic product
or
GDP
is the value of everything a country produces ( minus the cost to produce it ) and the
employment-rate
measures the number of paying jobs. The
gross national income
or GNI is what you get after adding up all of
the income earned by everyone. GNI includes every citizen ( even in other countries ) and every kind of income
from wages or salaries to social security and unemployment benefits, investment returns, or the sale of assets
like houses and cars.
GNI is basically the total value of all money
paid to everyone, minus the expenses of doing the business everyone is getting paid for. According to the
macroeconomic accounts on the Federal Reserve's website, the GNI was about
$18.7 trillion dollars
in 2016 for the US.
Gross National Wages:
Every Paycheck Combined
Now, how much of America's multi-trillion-dollar
paycheck ends up in the pockets of people who work in the US? Since the "gross national wage" is apparently not
as important to US media-outlets as Jeff Bezos' latest earnings or the many triumphs of the Dow Jones, this
number is a bit more camouflaged. Luckily, the
total number who are employed by all industries and their
average wages or salaries
can be found in the bowels of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' website.
Multiplying these two numbers -- the total employed by all industries and their mean-average yearly
wages -- gives the combined wages and salaries of everyone with a job in the US, from the clerks and mechanics
to the brain-surgeons and corporate executives.
$7 trillion dollars to split between all employed people in the United States.
Everyone who built
everything and provided every service --
managers, janitors, lawyers,
nurses, librarians, bartenders, and everyone else who had a job in 2016
-- collectively earned about $7
trillion of the $18.7 trillion national paycheck.
But who gets the remaining $11,781,946,014,800?
Federal Benefits & Social Welfare
The national income also includes money received
from government benefits, such as disability, retirement, and social security. The Bureau of Labor Statistics
lists the 2016 total federal benefits
received at
$2.0393 trillion.
Total US Income = $18,750,000,000,000
Combined Wages & Salaries of All Employed Folks = $6,968,053,985,200
Income from Federal Social Benefits = $2,039,300,000,000
Total Income - (Wages & Salaries + Benefits) =
$9,763,546,014,800
And about $9.8 trillion is still missing.
Literally All Working People Combined
Earn Less Than Half of American Income
According to the BLS data,
there are an estimated
146 million people who hold some sort of job in the US.
These
146 million workers create
every commodity
, serve
every meal
, harvest
every last
grain
, empty
every waste bin
, teach
every student
, build
every house
,
and pour milk into
every single cappuccino
in the nation. And together
they take
about 37.2%
of the American pie.
All of the so-called
"handouts" from the federal government -- social security, retirement, disability, and other benefits -- only
amount to another 10.8% of the GNI.
The combined income from all employment and federal
benefits still only adds up to 48% of America's paycheck. And that means that the other 52% must be paid to
someone -- or some
thing
-- without a job.
Unearned Income: Landlords, Industrial
Capitalists, & Wall Street Investors
Property
income
-- or, as the classical economists knew it,
unearned income
-- is
earned through ownership ( rather than
wages
, which are earned by time
spent working ). There are three basic types of unearned income.
Rent
is paid to owners of land or other natural resources,
profit
is paid
to owners of capital ( like factories, equipment, machines, etc. ), and
interest
is paid to owners of financial assets ( like stocks, securities, debt, etc. ). The $13 billion
Jeff Bezos made when Amazon share prices increased, for example, was "earned" by owning something rather than
creating something or providing some service.
This type of income is a bit harder to keep
track of -- especially considering that the wealthy seem to be in the habit of using offshore tax-havens and
shell companies ( like those revealed in the
Panama
and
Paradise Papers
) to stash their fortunes. With
that being said, the
US Department of Commerce's accounts
show
nearly $7 trillion
-- or about the same as 146 million
working people made combined -- paid out for
interest, rent, and corporate
profits
. Another trillion and a half or so was paid to "proprietors" or, more colloquially, the
owners.
And now we have a rough sketch of the great
American paycheck:
Are Workers Worthy of Their Wages?
Not in the United States of America!
There are two basic components to the whole
economic activity and wealth of human civilization --
capital
and
labor
.
On one hand there is capital -- all of the natural resources, materials, lands, machines, and everything that
everything is made
of
and made
with
-- and, on the other hand, there are the countless workers whose labor-power transforms that stuff
into the societies we live in.
Without the time, energy, creativity, and
sacrifices made by the 146 million human beings who make everything and offer every service, the wealth of
people like Jeff Bezos would not exist. Business magnates like Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffet, and Bill Gates
need
working classes -- working classes do not need
them
. And yet
Bezos, Buffet, and Gates now possess more wealth than the
bottom 50%
of the nation combined.
Through the prism of the American economy, people like Bezos, Buffet, and Gates are
just as valuable
as the poorest 160 million of the working classes who
collectively labor billions of hours each week.
And
that
is unfair --
that
doesn't add up. The "American Dream" -- the whole idea
about how anyone willing to work hard should be able to prosper or, at the very least, make ends meet -- is
objectively
untrue
. The truth is -- if you want to earn wealth in the
US or even if you only want to earn enough to pay the bills on time --
honest
work
is not a very good strategy.
In solidarity,
John Laurits
If you enjoy these posts, consider buying the writer a cup of coffee
using PayPal
or making a monthly donation
using Patreon
-- it's
like a voluntary subscription directly to an artist & journalist
John Laurits is not an
award-winning journalist. Follow to watch the comic futility of John's quest to defeat capitalism with art
https://www.johnlaurits.com
A central selling point of the tax bill is that it will encourage investment. But that assumes that high tax rates were the
primary reason why business wasn't investing. Instead, the data says business investment is weak because the U.S. has a ton of
spare capacity.
First, let's look total capacity utilization: It has peaked at lower levels in each of the last three expansions.
Let's break the data down into durable and non-durable CU:
Both categories of production have ample spare capacity, with non-durable production having greater capacity.
Finally, let's look at crude, intermediate and final stages of production: All three have plenty of spare capacity to bring
online if needed.
So, will we see a huge wave of investment as a result of the changed tax bill? The data says no.
adding capacity hasn't been about need for years companies have been adding plant and
equipment that they didn't need for years because of incentives included in the code, such as
the investment tax credit and accelerated depreciation, so it's really hard to say when that
will stop..
spencer , December 22, 2017 1:30 pm
Rather than using the Fed estimate of capacity maybe it would be better to use a trend
line for capacity utilization and compare that to reported capacity utilization. I think that
would give a more realistic measure of economic slack as the trend line shows a long run
trend of slower capacity growth.
Lyle , December 22, 2017 11:46 pm
The main investment might be made to automate things, replacing expensive human workers
with cheaper automatic workers who don't need benefits and an HR department.
"... They have behaved badly with an unstable value of bitcoin (huge unpredictable Bitcoin deflation damages any use of bitcoin as a means of exchange as much as huge inflation would). ..."
"... Now no one is really interested in cryptocurrency except as a way to gamble and take money from fools. But if anyone were, linking the blockchain program to prices on an exchange would make it more nearly possible to use the cryptocurrency as a means of exchange. ..."
"... The system is vulnerable to a tacit agreement to trade only on unofficial exchanges. It is necessary that the problem is also made easier if daily trading volume on the official exchange is zero. The problem is the price could shoot up on unofficial exchanges, but this would not affect the price on the official exchange if there were no transactions on the official exchange. ..."
"... The basis was and remains to remove any and all national gov'ts across he globe from any influences on values of currencies, thus pure laissez-faire in the extreme .. as you say libertarian chaos. ..."
"... There is a much more severe problem with bitcoin. As the number mined asymptotically approaches the pre-determined maximum, the cost of mining approaches infinity. As miners are the ones who validate coins, what will happen to the reliability of bitcoin when it becomes uneconomical for anyone to participate in mining? ..."
I am going to make a fool
of myself by suggesting that a cryptocurrency might actually be useful. Bitcoin et al have
negative social utility. They are pure speculative assets which enable people to gamble. Also
bitcoin miners use as much electricity as Denmark. The problem is exactly the aspect which has
made bitcoin famous and which bitcoin enthusiasts consider a strength -- the enormous increase
in the dollar price of bitcoin. This increase, and the recent sharp decline, make bitcoin
useless as a means of exchange. Most firms don't want to gamble.
So I (semi-seriously this time) propose botcoin which might have a more stable dollar
exchange rate. The idea is to link the blockchain verification program to an official
exchange.
Backing up, there are two very different sorts of web-servers related to bitcoin. One set,
the bitcoin miners, implements the original idea using the Bitcoin shareware. They keep a copy
of the ledger of all bitcoin transactions -- the blockchain, race to create new blocks, and
evaluate new blocks and add valid new blocks to the chain. The other servers are bitcoin
exchanges in which bitcoin is traded for regular currency. They are not part of the original
plan in which bitcoin would be traded for goods and services and function as a means of
exchange. They have behaved badly with an unstable value of bitcoin (huge unpredictable
Bitcoin deflation damages any use of bitcoin as a means of exchange as much as huge inflation
would).
I propose linking the blockchain program to an exchange. So there would be an official
botcoin exchange (this means it isn't entirely free-entry shareware libertarian anarchism). If
anyone were interested in a new cryptocurrency designed so that speculators can't become rich
(and pigs fly) there would be other unofficial exchanges.
The bitcoin program regulates the frequency of creation of new blocks to roughly one every
six minutes. It does this by adjusting the difficulty of the pointless arithmetic problem which
must be solved to make a new valid block. The idea was to limit the total amount of bitcoin
which will ever be created (to 21 million for some reason). This was supposed to make bitcoin
valuable. So far it has succeeded all too well (I am confident that in the end bitcoin will
have price 0).
It is possible to make the supply of botcoin flexible so the dollar price doesn't shoot up.
I would aim at a price of, say, 1 botcoin = $1000. The idea is to make the pointless problem
which must be solved to add a block easier if the dollar price of botcoin exceeds the target,
and harder if it falls below the target. This should stabilize the price.
Now no one is really interested in cryptocurrency except as a way to gamble and take
money from fools. But if anyone were, linking the blockchain program to prices on an exchange
would make it more nearly possible to use the cryptocurrency as a means of exchange.
The system is vulnerable to a tacit agreement to trade only on unofficial exchanges. It
is necessary that the problem is also made easier if daily trading volume on the official
exchange is zero. The problem is the price could shoot up on unofficial exchanges, but this
would not affect the price on the official exchange if there were no transactions on the
official exchange.
Lyle , December 25, 2017 11:22 pm
Of course Goldman Sachs and its competitors are doing just this building an options and
futures exchange. (it is not really that much different than any other futures and options
business)
Longtooth , December 26, 2017 5:01 am
But Robert,
then the entire foundation for Bitcoin's purpose disappears entirely, so what advantage
remains?
The basis was and remains to remove any and all national gov'ts across he globe from any
influences on values of currencies, thus pure laissez-faire in the extreme .. as you say
libertarian chaos.
By making crypto-currency values subject to national currency exchange rates they cease to
have any reason to exist at all.
We / globally in fact already use crypto exchange via electronic transactions .. adding
block chain to it would be a benefit but a separate cryptocurrency is a worthless redundancy
if it is subject to valuation by exchange rates of national currencies.
What am I missing?.
likbez , December 26, 2017 5:27 am
Great Article !!! I wish I can write about this topic on the same level. Thank you very much. P.S. Happy New Year for everybody !
rick shapiro , December 26, 2017 10:26 am
There is a much more severe problem with bitcoin. As the number mined asymptotically
approaches the pre-determined maximum, the cost of mining approaches infinity. As miners are
the ones who validate coins, what will happen to the reliability of bitcoin when it becomes
uneconomical for anyone to participate in mining?
"Hillary Clinton, following a long tradition of mainstream Democrats, had a grab bag of proposals that, if enacted, would collectively
make a huge difference in the lives of working people. "
I think you are wrong here.
Hillary was/is a neoliberal, and as such is hostile to the interests of working people and middle class in general. Like most
neoliberals she is a Machiavellian elitist. Her election promises are pure demagogy, much like Trump or Obama election promised
(immortalized in the slogan "change we can believe in" which now became the synonym of election fraud)
Also she was/is hell-bent of preserving/expanding the US neoliberal empire and the wars for neoliberal dominance (in ME mainly
for the benefit of Israel and Saudis). War are pretty costly ventures and they are financed at the expense of working class and
lower middle class, never at the expense of "fat cats" from Wall Street.
All-in-all I think the role of POTUS is greatly "misunderestimated" in your line of thinking. As we can see differences between
Trump and Hillary in foreign policy are marginal. Why are you assuming that the differences in domestic economic policies would
be greater ?
In reality there are other powerful factors in play that diminish the importance of POTUS:
The US Presidential Elections are no longer an instrument for change. They are completely corrupted and are mostly of "bread
and circuses" type of events, where two gladiators preselected by financial elite fight for the coveted position, using all kind
of dirty tricks for US public entertainment.
While the appearance of democracy remains, in reality the current system represents that rule of "deep state". In the classic
form of "National security state". In the National Security State, the US people no longer have the any chances to change the
policies.
Political emasculation of US voters has led to frustration, depression and rage. It feeds radical right movement including
neo-fascists, which embrace more extreme remedies to the current problems because they correctly feel that the traditional parties
no longer represent the will of the people.
Insulated and partially degenerated US elite have grown more obtuse and is essentially a hostage for neocons. They chose
to ignore the seething anger that lies just below the surface of brainwashed Us electorate.
The "American Dream" is officially dead. People at a and below lower middle class level see little hope for themselves,
their children or the country. The chasm between top 1% (or let's say top 20%) and the rest continues to fuel populist anger.
While Trump proved to be "yet another turncoat" like Barak Obama (who just got his first silver coin in the form of the
$400K one hour speech) Trump's election signify a broad rejection of the country's neoliberal elite, including neoliberal MSM,
neocon foreign policy as well as neoliberal economic system (and first of all neoliberal globalization).
The country foreign policy remains hijacked by neocons (this time in the form of fiends of Paul Wolfowitz among the military
brass appointed by Trump to top positions in his administration) and that might spell major conflict or even WWIII.
8. We can now talk about the USA as "neocon occupied country" (NOC), because the neocons policies contradict the USA national
interests and put heavy burden of taxpayers, especially in lower income categories. Due to neglect in maintaining infrastructure,
in some areas the USA already looks like third word country. Still we finance Israel and several other countries to the tune of
$40 billion dollars in military aid alone (that that's in case of Israel just the tip of the iceberg; real figure is probably
double of that) https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33222.pdf
Since Bill Clinton POTUS is more or less a marionette of financial oligarchy (which Obama -- as a person without the past (or
with a very fuzzy past) - symbolizes all too well).
"... It tells me that the bottom line is that Christmas has become a harder season for White families. We are worse off because of BOTH social and economic liberalism which has only benefited an elite few. The bottom half of the White population is now in total disarray – drug addiction, demoralization, divorce, suicide, abortion, atomization, stagnant wages, declining household income and investments – and this dysfunction is creeping up the social ladder. The worst thing we can do is step on the accelerator. ..."
As we move into 2018, I am swinging away from the Republicans. I don't support the Paul Ryan
"Better Way" agenda. I don't support neoliberal economics. I think we have been going in the
wrong direction since the 1970s and don't want to continue going down this road.
Opioid Deaths: As we all know, the opioid epidemic has become a national crisis and the White working class
has been hit the hardest by it. It is a "sea of despair" out there.
White Mortality: As the family crumbles, religion recedes in his life, and his job prospects dwindle, the
middle aged White working class man is turning to drugs, alcohol and suicide: The White suicide
rate has soared since 2000:
Median Household Income: The average household in the United States is poorer in 2017 than it was in 1997:
Real GDP: Since the late 1990s, real GDP and real median household income have parted
ways:
Productivity and Real Wages: Since the 1970s, the minimum wage has parted ways with
productivity gains in the US economy:
Stock Market: Since 2000, the stock market has soared, but 10% of Americans own 80% of
stocks. The top 1% owns 38% of stocks. In 2007, 3/4th of middle class households were invested
in the stock market, but now only 50% are investors. Overall, 52% of Americans now own stocks,
which is down from 65%. The average American has less than $1,000 in their combined checking
and savings accounts.
Do you know what this tells me?
It tells me that the bottom line is that Christmas has become a harder season for White
families. We are worse off because of BOTH social and economic liberalism which has only
benefited an elite few. The bottom half of the White population is now in total disarray
– drug addiction, demoralization, divorce, suicide, abortion, atomization, stagnant
wages, declining household income and investments – and this dysfunction is creeping up
the social ladder. The worst thing we can do is step on the accelerator.
Paul Ryan and his fellow conservatives look at this and conclude we need MORE freedom. We
need lower taxes, more free trade, more deregulation, weaker unions, more immigration and less
social safety net spending. He wants to follow up tax reform with entitlement reform in 2018. I
can't but see how this is going to make an already bad situation for the White working class
even worse.
I'm not rightwing in the sense that these people are. I think their policies are harmful to
the nation. I don't think they feel any sense of duty and obligation to the working class like
we do. They believe in liberal abstractions and make an Ayn Rand fetish out of freedom whereas
we feel a sense of solidarity with them grounded in race, ethnicity and culture which tempers
class division. We recoil at the evisceration of the social fabric whereas conservatives
celebrate this blind march toward plutocracy.
Do the wealthy need to own a greater share of the stock market? Do they need to own a
greater share of our national wealth? Do we need to loosen up morals and the labor market? Do
we need more White children growing up in financially stressed, broken homes on Christmas? Is
the greatest problem facing the nation spending on anti-poverty programs? Paul Ryan and the
True Cons think so.
Yeah, I don't think so. I also think it is a good thing right now that we aren't associated
with the mainstream Right. In the long run, I bet this will pay off for us. I predict this
platform they have been standing on for decades now, which they call the conservative base, is
going to implode on them. Donald Trump was only the first sign that Atlas is about to
shrug.
(Republished from Occidental Dissent by permission of author or representative)
"Hillary Clinton, following a long tradition of mainstream Democrats, had a grab bag of proposals that, if enacted, would collectively
make a huge difference in the lives of working people. "
I think you are wrong here.
Hillary was/is a neoliberal, and as such is hostile to the interests of working people and middle class in general. Like most
neoliberals she is a Machiavellian elitist. Her election promises are pure demagogy, much like Trump or Obama election promised
(immortalized in the slogan "change we can believe in" which now became the synonym of election fraud)
Also she was/is hell-bent of preserving/expanding the US neoliberal empire and the wars for neoliberal dominance (in ME mainly
for the benefit of Israel and Saudis). War are pretty costly ventures and they are financed at the expense of working class and
lower middle class, never at the expense of "fat cats" from Wall Street.
All-in-all I think the role of POTUS is greatly "misunderestimated" in your line of thinking. As we can see differences between
Trump and Hillary in foreign policy are marginal. Why are you assuming that the differences in domestic economic policies would
be greater ?
In reality there are other powerful factors in play that diminish the importance of POTUS:
The US Presidential Elections are no longer an instrument for change. They are completely corrupted and are mostly of "bread
and circuses" type of events, where two gladiators preselected by financial elite fight for the coveted position, using all kind
of dirty tricks for US public entertainment.
While the appearance of democracy remains, in reality the current system represents that rule of "deep state". In the classic
form of "National security state". In the National Security State, the US people no longer have the any chances to change the
policies.
Political emasculation of US voters has led to frustration, depression and rage. It feeds radical right movement including
neo-fascists, which embrace more extreme remedies to the current problems because they correctly feel that the traditional parties
no longer represent the will of the people.
Insulated and partially degenerated US elite have grown more obtuse and is essentially a hostage for neocons. They chose
to ignore the seething anger that lies just below the surface of brainwashed Us electorate.
The "American Dream" is officially dead. People at a and below lower middle class level see little hope for themselves,
their children or the country. The chasm between top 1% (or let's say top 20%) and the rest continues to fuel populist anger.
While Trump proved to be "yet another turncoat" like Barak Obama (who just got his first silver coin in the form of the
$400K one hour speech) Trump's election signify a broad rejection of the country's neoliberal elite, including neoliberal MSM,
neocon foreign policy as well as neoliberal economic system (and first of all neoliberal globalization).
The country foreign policy remains hijacked by neocons (this time in the form of fiends of Paul Wolfowitz among the military
brass appointed by Trump to top positions in his administration) and that might spell major conflict or even WWIII.
8. We can now talk about the USA as "neocon occupied country" (NOC), because the neocons policies contradict the USA national
interests and put heavy burden of taxpayers, especially in lower income categories. Due to neglect in maintaining infrastructure,
in some areas the USA already looks like third word country. Still we finance Israel and several other countries to the tune of
$40 billion dollars in military aid alone (that that's in case of Israel just the tip of the iceberg; real figure is probably
double of that) https://fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL33222.pdf
Since Bill Clinton POTUS is more or less a marionette of financial oligarchy (which Obama -- as a person without the past (or
with a very fuzzy past) - symbolizes all too well).
"... I'd like to believe either the Repubs or Dems were the answer, except both are near unanimous in their support for the military industrial complex and its expanding wars. Note the 98-2 vote to make Russia a permanent enemy. I believe the resistors were bipartisan, lonely as they are in either party, in reality separate branches of an imperial War Party. ..."
"... Let me be the dink who reminds you: Peak Oil ..."
"... As a clever newspaper writer said about Jesse Ventura: Jesse is a lot smarter than most folks think he is, but not nearly as smart as he thinks he is. Like Jesse, Trump is smart enough to avoid unnecessary war. However, war may just become "necessary" when the heat of his Russia investigation becomes unbearable, and Trump needs the ultimate distraction. When (not if) that happens, either North Korea or Iran will be in trouble -- perhaps both. Millions will most likely die, billions of dollars will be spent, and the US will create an entirely new generation of terrorists. This will not end well. ..."
"... EngineerScotty wrote: "The foreign policy of a President Hillary Clinton wouldn't be the amateur hour that we've gotten so far with Trump" No, it would be the ruthlessly effective professionalism of the reset with Russia and the ouster of Qaddafi. /sarc She wanted and wants Assad deposed. How well would that have gone? ..."
"... "In the meantime, Frack Baby Frack! The less oil we have to import from there, Venezuela, or anyplace crazy the better." That would be sane. But the elites have decided to export it at a cut rate, to undermine Russia as the supplier in Europe, in order to foment regime change by crashing the Russian economy. Why did you think we had such low fuel prices all of a sudden? ..."
"... No, the fuel extracted from American soil does not accrue to the benefit of the American people, but to the profits and plans of elites ..."
"... That would be sane. But the elites have decided to export it at a cut rate, to undermine Russia as the supplier in Europe, in order to foment regime change by crashing the Russian economy. Why did you think we had such low fuel prices all of a sudden? ..."
"... No, the fuel extracted from American soil does not accrue to the benefit of the American people, but to the profits and plans of elites. ..."
"... Oil obtained by fracking is far more expensive to produce than oil obtained by simply drilling a well in the Arabian Desert and quickly finding a gusher. The US can meet its domestic needs, but isn't that great of a net exporter -- prices have to be sufficiently high before high-volume production becomes cost-effective. ..."
"... Noah and Engineer Scotty -- There is a reasonable compromise. Both of you are right. Trump is a disaster and we know Clinton was terrible. There is no point in arguing about whether she would be worse. I happen to think In some ways she wouldn't be as bad. She wouldn't be engaged in stupid twitter fights with dictators. But she might be better at leading us into some stupid war in Syria. Trump will stumble into some war with no support. Clinton would have had lots of support for whatever mindlessly stupid bloodbath she wanted to start. ..."
"... One of my biggest concerns about Trump's foreign policy–and a major difference from how Hillary would have governed–is his utter disdain for diplomacy. As noted, he (and Tillerson) have been busy setting the State Department ablaze, and many, many, many seasoned diplomats (career civil servants, not political appointees) have left Foggy Bottom, some of their own accord, some not. Some Trump defenders claim this is part of "draining the swamp", and many critics claim this is a purge of anyone not loyal to Trump personally–and these two claims may be opposite sides of the same coin. ..."
Trump won't get dragged into war, although his conniving nature may try to make it look like
that if it serves some ulterior motive of his. Trump will race on his own volition (not get
dragged by others) to war because he's already been chomping at the bit for war as evident in
how he's been baiting Iran and N. Korea alike, just as Bush baited Saddam Huessein, then bait
and switched Osama Bin Laden for Saddam. So if not war with one (Iran), then with the other
(N. Korea), or with both.
Why? Because like all Republican politicians, Trump's a businessman and proud of it,
(Pride goeth before destruction and a haughty spirit before a fall.) And because war is good
for American business, a lesson that was learned from WWII from which was created the
military-industrial-complex and the Permanent War Economy under which we've lived ever
since.
That bit's key to understanding the whole unwavering GOP attack on social services and
desire to deregulate and privatize everything, not because of evil "socialism" as the
Republican constituency is hypnotized with propaganda into believing, but because there's no
money to be made in government expenditures otherwise. The whole GOP agenda has been and is
about public expense for private gain. All the blather about shrinking the government is
smokescreen. The real agenda is about directing all government spending towards private
contractors with none wasted on things like social services, medicare, or Social
Security.
Economic aspects of politics can't be ignored and separated from social aspects of
politics which is how conservatism in America has helped create the current political mess,
by turning a blind eye and dittohead to economic matters in order to push the chosen,
preferred social agenda.
As Coolidge said, "The business of America is business." So since the US is ruled by money
of markets, there can be no getting one's moral back up and all Jesus over social immorality,
only to ignore the immorality of the marketplace and thereby fail to push for a moral economy
along with a moral society. Such misidentification of the problem will only result in missing
the mark, in inappropriate rather than on the mark effective solutions to problems.
Trump is simply a braggart who likes to exaggerate by talking in superlatives, so it's
fitting that Trump ran on the GOP ticket, because he's but another child of the Father of
Lies, who superlatively lies about his wealth being billions instead of millions to swell his
pride in being a mammon worshipper, and going to war is and will be as it certainly has been
part and parcel of such hubris.
To be fair, the Saudi dictators have always been best friends with America's elites –
think Bandar Bush, the grounding of all air traffic in the United States after 9/11, except
the Saudi evacuation planes spiriting Saudi royals out of the country so they could not be
questioned. And there is the locus of the Likud Israeli party friendship with the Saudis, and
Trump is certainly nothing if not onside with his good friend, the Israeli PM.
I'd like to believe either the Repubs or Dems were the answer, except both are near unanimous
in their support for the military industrial complex and its expanding wars. Note the 98-2
vote to make Russia a permanent enemy. I believe the resistors were bipartisan, lonely as
they are in either party, in reality separate branches of an imperial War Party.
Make no mistake: if there is going to be an attack on Iran by Americans, it is not because
MbS wants it, it is because the Americans love war.
I am convinced that most (some 90%) Americans are open or closeted
Neo-cons/liberal-interventionists/war-hawks. Some are shamelessly and openly so (John
Bolton), but many are so without showing it or even being aware of it. The hawk in them is
restlessly waiting for an opening, an excuse, to come out and proclaim what they have ever
been
Bush 41 dragged us into a coalition war over Kuwait. Clinton dragged us into a coalition war
in the Balkans. Bush 43 dragged us into a war in Iraq. Obama dragged us into a secret war
when he destabilized Syria and Lybia, which unleashed ISIS. All for the right reasons, of
course (sarcasm).
You might be right, but I fail to see how that would be different than the last 30
years.
BTW, Politico has a story about how the Obama Administration shot down DEA drug trafficking
investigations of Hezbollah to support the Iran nuclear deal. I would like to read your
comments about it, particularly in light of the comments you made above about Trump.
Parents always tell kids to choose their friends carefully. With pals like Netanyahu and the
Saudi bogus "crown prince", Trump clearly didn't follow that advice.
That video looks like a Nazi's wet dream, I mean the undiluted fascistic element is
overwhelming, it's like getting a peek at an alternate dimension, not even a society, of pure
militaristic "hathos" festooned by a limitless cloud of lies.
The worst of humanity is engrafted in that video, by which, I mean the unalloyed lying
stupidity of war: imperialist expansionism, nationalist revanchism, and plutocratic
supremacism, haloed by the grey mist–the dehumanzing pixelated mist–of the most
dehumanizing endeavor man can undertake, for the most dehumanizing of modern causes:
fascistic capitalism, the kind that fueled WWII (In this latter case, under the guise of
religious supremacism or religious survivalism, but, in any case, only an obvious guise as
far as the grotesque House of Saud is characteristically concerned).
Echoing Noah above, this doesn't appear to be a production of the Saudi government, but
having a contingent of the Saudi population gung-ho for a Sunni/Shi'a Ragnarok is concerning
in itself. Both KSA and Iran will fight each other to the last Yemeni before any direct
conflict arises.
This is the scenario that should be keeping us all up at night:
Fran Macadam: To be fair, the Saudi dictators have always been best friends with America's
elites – think Bandar Bush, the grounding of all air traffic in the United States after
9/11, except the Saudi evacuation planes spiriting Saudi royals out of the country so they
could not be questioned.
It wasn't the royals -- it was the bin Laden family itself. The people who knew Osama
best. I never understood why we didn't insists that, with all airplanes grounded, they had to
have a US Air Force pilot -- who then would have flown them to Gitmo for a sit-down on their
newly famous relative. Instead the highest levels of government -- how high did you have to
go to get permission to fly? -- broke into their busy schedules to be briefed and let them
go.
The whole thing still stinks. We really need to have an investigation into the role of
Saudi Arabia in American foreign policy; especially the Iraq Wars.
In the meantime, Frack Baby Frack! The less oil we have to import from there, Venezuela,
or anyplace crazy the better.
President Trump's new best friend, MBS, is going to get us dragged into a new war in the
region. Watch.
But her E-mails Good Thing the witch from Chappaqua isn't in the White House
ROTFLMAO!!!
If the Saudis are foolish enough to try that they will get their ass so thoroughly kicked
that "who were the Al Saud?" will a trivial pursuit question on par with "Who were the
Romanov's?" 10 years from now, and if the US is foolish enough to let them do that, watch the
Global Economy collapse as the Strait of Hormuz gets closed for a few years.
Dr Talon,
The best military in the Middle East is Hezbollah (Trained & equipped by the Iranian,
blooded and forged by the Israelis) the only thing they don't have is an air force. Let them
have a half way decent air wing, and they would be on par or better than the USMC.
Duke Leto,
All that beautiful hardware has to be put to good use, after all if you don't use it you
can't replace it. Think of all that beautiful money to be made in hardware replacement
Noah,
Trump also declined to support Kurdish independence, which the Israeli right supports
and would have undermined Iran (which has a restive Kurdish minority) and Iran ally
Iraq.
Supporting the Kurds would have pissed off his best buddy Erdogan, in that Turkey has the
largest Kurdish minority population of all the Middle Eastern countries (about 20% of
population) and the largest military in the Middle East. Not a good idea, especially if you
don't want them to become buddy buddy with their eastern neighbor.
Oh, did I mention that Saudi Arabia has a substantial Shiite minority (10 to 15% of the
population) who isn't exactly thrilled to live under Wahhabi rule.
Watching the Saudis (a country that has to import plumbers from South Asia because it's
below the dignity of the locals to be plumbers) getting their asses handed to them, watching
the Dumpster's poll rating jump up to the 80% mark before cratering down to 15%, watching the
Trump recession that would follow would almost be worth it if I didn't have to suffer the
consequences of "Real American's(TM)" idiocy. It would be almost as much fun as watching
Brexit.
And President Ted Cruz or Clinton would be different how?
It's a pretty safe assumption that a President Clinton would work to uphold the treaty her
predecessor signed with Iran. Cruz, like the rest of the GOP hawks, would probably (like
Trump) be actively working to undermine it and provoke Iran. She'd want more money for social
and infrastrucure spending, less for military.
Pavlos has it right. The GOP (and a lot of Democrats) think war is good for business and
are happy to funnel obscene amounts of money to the military-industrial complex under the
guise of "national security."
It depends on what you imply when saying that it has lit up Arab social media, Rod. "Damn
those Saudis are strong!" type of reaction means that social media are lit up. "LOL, what
sorry comedian a-holes those Saudis are!" type of reaction also means that social media are
lit up.
I can't decide if this truly 'government' backed or some Saudia wackos let their freak loose.
At least the wackos are going after Iran and not the US. It is probably really nothing than
an expensive Youtube comment but it does indicate that Saudia Arabia population really
desires War somewhere and somehow.
Although this is probably forgotten in 1 month, the Middle East appears to be following
similar paths as Europe in the 1900 – 1914. We have lots of secret Allies and treaties
with enormous tensions that is hungry for a battle.
The foreign policy of a President Hillary Clinton would probably be too hawkish for my
tastes–and certainly she wouldn't enjoy strong relations with Russia (given evidence,
in this hypothetical, that Putin was actively interfering in the election to support her
opponent)–but it wouldn't be the amateur hour that we've gotten so far with Trump.
Clinton would still have a functioning diplomatic corps, instead of sacking half the State
Department. She wouldn't be trading insults with foreign heads of state on Twitter. She'd
likely be not trying to undermine the Iran deal. And she'd not be performing fellatio on the
likes of Netanyaho, Ergodan, and MbS, as Trump has been eagerly doing.
Really. At what point does the "as bad as Trump's foreign policy has been, Clinton wudda
been worse" refrain stop? Trump is already the worst foreign policy president since
LBJ–he only needs a Vietnam War to his name to blow past him. And he has none of
Johnson's domestic achievements.
The last time an Arab dictator tried to attack the Iranians he could only get a draw that
bankrupted him and lead, by a series of second-order consequences, to his downfall.
The Iranians had just, when they were attacked by Iraq, had thier revolution and had
liquidated thier officer corps. Think about that. Iranians as polity may, for the most part,
dislike the rule of the clerics, but they are intensely patriotic and will fight to the last
man/woman to defend the Persian homeland. Underestimate them at your peril.
When Iran's proxies in Yemen -- the Houthis -- are launching missiles at airports and the
Royal Palace, I don't think this type video is very surprising and as propaganda goes really
a big deal. It is pretty low level saber rattling if it is a Saudi Government produc, or what
you would see a million times over among Americans if it is the work of just a bunch of young
Saudi yahoos. Oh, and MSAGA -- Make Saudi Arabia Great Again!
Israel has never fought side-by-side with the US in any of the wars it has sent the us to
fight [and die for and pay for] at the instigation of the settlers/occupiers.
Since the U.S. has never fought any wars for Israel, that makes the score 0:0 then.
But her E-mails Good Thing the witch from Chappaqua isn't in the White House
What ignorant drivel. Clinton is plenty hawkish (she cheered on Trump's April missile
strike on Assad, and urged him to go much further). Moreover, as I wrote above, this video
seems to be youthful fan fiction, not carrying any Saudi government imprimatur (let alone
endorsement from Trump). Rod is speculating that the US will eventually join Saudi Arabia in
a war against Iran, but Rod is no seer, whatever his other attributes.
Supporting the Kurds would have pissed off his best buddy Erdogan
Poppycock. Trump is hardly Erdogan's poodle. Trump gave heavy armaments to the Syrian
Kurds (O had limited their support to small arms) and wants to move our embassy to Jerusalem,
both decisions angering Erdogan. Erdogan would also liked to have seen Assad deposed.
I'm not going to offer an opinion on the efficacy of Saudi Arabia's army, and neither should
you. Remember how everyone warned us about Iraq's Republican Guard?) Few of us know what
we're talking about.
On the larger point: are you all taking drugs? Some video "lights up" Arab social media
and therefore Trump is taking us to war against Iran?? What?!
(especially the Straits of Hormuz aspect. The Iranians just have to mine it so that one or
more cargo ships get holed and got to the bottom at strategic bends and nobody ain't shipping
no Saudi Oil nowhere. Have fun with $300/bbl oil economies, guys China will make out like a bandit, considering
it's now the world leader in solar power.
As a clever newspaper writer said about Jesse Ventura: Jesse is a lot smarter than most folks
think he is, but not nearly as smart as he thinks he is. Like Jesse, Trump is smart enough to
avoid unnecessary war. However, war may just become "necessary" when the heat of his Russia
investigation becomes unbearable, and Trump needs the ultimate distraction. When (not if)
that happens, either North Korea or Iran will be in trouble -- perhaps both. Millions will
most likely die, billions of dollars will be spent, and the US will create an entirely new
generation of terrorists. This will not end well.
EngineerScotty wrote: "The foreign policy of a President Hillary Clinton wouldn't be the amateur hour that
we've gotten so far with Trump" No, it would be the ruthlessly effective professionalism of the reset with Russia and the
ouster of Qaddafi. /sarc She wanted and wants Assad deposed. How well would that have gone?
She wouldn't be trading insults with foreign heads of state on Twitter
Clinton has insulted Putin any number of times on social media and in interviews. On the
Colbert program just last September, she claimed that he worked against her election because
of sexism, and claimed that he "manspread" during a meeting with her.
And she'd not be performing fellatio on the likes of Netanyaho, Ergodan, and
MbS
Netanyahu and Erdogan do not get along, so it's pretty hard to please both of them
simultaneously. Like muad'dib, Scotty has it in his head that Trump is a poodle of Erdogan,
but the latter would disagree. Heavy weapons to Syrian Kurds, Jerusalem -- Erdogan is not
fully pleased with Trump.
If Scotty thinks the Clintons are hostile to Saudi Arabia, he hasn't been paying attention
(does he ever?).
Trump is already the worst foreign policy president since LBJ -- he only needs a
Vietnam War to his name to blow past him
"In the meantime, Frack Baby Frack! The less oil we have to import from there, Venezuela, or
anyplace crazy the better." That would be sane. But the elites have decided to export it at a cut rate, to undermine
Russia as the supplier in Europe, in order to foment regime change by crashing the Russian
economy. Why did you think we had such low fuel prices all of a sudden?
No, the fuel extracted from American soil does not accrue to the benefit of the American
people, but to the profits and plans of elites.
As a clever newspaper writer said about Jesse Ventura: Jesse is a lot smarter than most
folks think he is, but not nearly as smart as he thinks he is. Like Jesse, Trump is smart
enough to avoid unnecessary war. However, war may just become "necessary" when the heat of
his Russia investigation becomes unbearable, and Trump needs the ultimate distraction. When
(not if) that happens, either North Korea or Iran will be in trouble -- perhaps both.
Millions will most likely die, billions of dollars will be spent, and the US will create an
entirely new generation of terrorists. This will not end well.
Except that "heat" of his investigation is almost extinguished already.
Noah and Engineer Scotty -- There is a reasonable compromise. Both of you are right. Trump is
a disaster and we know Clinton was terrible. There is no point in arguing about whether she
would be worse. I happen to think In some ways she wouldn't be as bad. She wouldn't be
engaged in stupid twitter fights with dictators. But she might be better at leading us into
some stupid war in Syria. Trump will stumble into some war with no support. Clinton would
have had lots of support for whatever mindlessly stupid bloodbath she wanted to start.
That would be sane. But the elites have decided to export it at a cut rate, to undermine
Russia as the supplier in Europe, in order to foment regime change by crashing the Russian
economy. Why did you think we had such low fuel prices all of a sudden?
No, the fuel extracted from American soil does not accrue to the benefit of the
American people, but to the profits and plans of elites.
Unless the "elites" you are talking about are the Saudis–who are well-known for
flooding the market with cheap crude periodically to undercut the competition (they can still
produce oil for far less than anywhere else), and have many reasons to be suspicious of
Russia–this makes no sense.
Oil obtained by fracking is far more expensive to produce than oil obtained by simply
drilling a well in the Arabian Desert and quickly finding a gusher. The US can meet its
domestic needs, but isn't that great of a net exporter -- prices have to be sufficiently high
before high-volume production becomes cost-effective.
And if you don't think that either the Saudis or the American oil industry have the ear of
Trump, you're smokin' something.
The "elites" that oppose Trump have rather little political power at the present moment.
Don't confuse cultural elites (who don't like the Donald one bit) with the gazillionaires who
actual control the petroleum industry, and are more than happy to do business with whoever is
in charge in Washington.
Trump–ignorant and fatuous and unworldly as he may be–is an "elite" by virtue
of the office he holds. Do not forget that.
Noah and Engineer Scotty -- There is a reasonable compromise. Both of you are right.
Trump is a disaster and we know Clinton was terrible. There is no point in arguing about
whether she would be worse. I happen to think In some ways she wouldn't be as bad. She
wouldn't be engaged in stupid twitter fights with dictators. But she might be better at
leading us into some stupid war in Syria. Trump will stumble into some war with no support.
Clinton would have had lots of support for whatever mindlessly stupid bloodbath she wanted
to start.
Fair enough–though I think that Hillary's foreign policy would likely be similar to
that of her husband. Far from ideal, but not disastrous. Of course, Bill got to hold office
in a time when the Soviet Union (and its constituent parts) was in shambles, China was still
a third-world country, North Korea was no threat to anyone but South Korea, Islamic extremism
was far less of a problem, and even the Israelis and Palestinians were talking, and on
roughly equal terms. Now is a much more dangerous time.
One of my biggest concerns about Trump's foreign policy–and a major difference
from how Hillary would have governed–is his utter disdain for diplomacy. As noted, he
(and Tillerson) have been busy setting the State Department ablaze, and many, many, many
seasoned diplomats (career civil servants, not political appointees) have left Foggy Bottom,
some of their own accord, some not. Some Trump defenders claim this is part of "draining the
swamp", and many critics claim this is a purge of anyone not loyal to Trump
personally–and these two claims may be opposite sides of the same coin.
But there is something else. Trump seems to think that international diplomacy ought to be
conducted like real-estate deals: Two high-rollers (CEOs or heads of state) meet on the golf
course, hash out a deal, and the lawyers work out the details; and that having a large staff
of people trained in understanding a potentially-hostile foreign country is simply
unnecessary. In short, he acts as though he believes the entire system of international
diplomatic protocol, is a racket. Perhaps he has a point here; and perhaps he does
not–as the old saying goes, don't knock down a wall unless you know what loads it is
bearing.
But you'll notice that neither Russia, nor China, nor Israel, nor Iran, or Germany, nor
any other player on the world stage, have been engaging in similar purges of their diplomatic
services.
"... With the election of 2016, symptoms of the long emergency seeped into the political system. Disinformation rules. There is no coherent consensus about what is happening and no coherent proposals to do anything about it. The two parties are mired in paralysis and dysfunction and the public's trust in them is at epic lows. Donald Trump is viewed as a sort of pirate president, a freebooting freak elected by accident, "a disrupter" of the status quo at best and at worst a dangerous incompetent playing with nuclear fire. A state of war exists between the White House, the permanent D.C. bureaucracy, and the traditional news media. Authentic leadership is otherwise AWOL. Institutions falter. The FBI and the CIA behave like enemies of the people. ..."
"... They chatter about electric driverless car fleets, home delivery drone services, and as-yet-undeveloped modes of energy production to replace problematic fossil fuels, while ignoring the self-evident resource and capital constraints now upon us and even the laws of physics -- especially entropy , the second law of thermodynamics. Their main mental block is their belief in infinite industrial growth on a finite planet, an idea so powerfully foolish that it obviates their standing as technocrats. ..."
"... The universities beget a class of what Nassim Taleb prankishly called "intellectuals-yet-idiots," hierophants trafficking in fads and falsehoods, conveyed in esoteric jargon larded with psychobabble in support of a therapeutic crypto-gnostic crusade bent on transforming human nature to fit the wished-for utopian template of a world where anything goes. In fact, they have only produced a new intellectual despotism worthy of Stalin, Mao Zedong, and Pol Pot. ..."
"... Until fairly recently, the Democratic Party did not roll that way. It was right-wing Republicans who tried to ban books, censor pop music, and stifle free expression. If anything, Democrats strenuously defended the First Amendment, including the principle that unpopular and discomforting ideas had to be tolerated in order to protect all speech. Back in in 1977 the ACLU defended the right of neo-Nazis to march for their cause (National Socialist Party of America v. Village of Skokie, 432 U.S. 43). ..."
"... This is the recipe for what we call identity politics, the main thrust of which these days, the quest for "social justice," is to present a suit against white male privilege and, shall we say, the horse it rode in on: western civ. A peculiar feature of the social justice agenda is the wish to erect strict boundaries around racial identities while erasing behavioral boundaries, sexual boundaries, and ethical boundaries. Since so much of this thought-monster is actually promulgated by white college professors and administrators, and white political activists, against people like themselves, the motives in this concerted campaign might appear puzzling to the casual observer. ..."
"... The evolving matrix of rackets that prompted the 2008 debacle has only grown more elaborate and craven as the old economy of stuff dies and is replaced by a financialized economy of swindles and frauds . Almost nothing in America's financial life is on the level anymore, from the mendacious "guidance" statements of the Federal Reserve, to the official economic statistics of the federal agencies, to the manipulation of all markets, to the shenanigans on the fiscal side, to the pervasive accounting fraud that underlies it all. Ironically, the systematic chiseling of the foundering middle class is most visible in the rackets that medicine and education have become -- two activities that were formerly dedicated to doing no harm and seeking the truth ! ..."
"... Um, forgotten by Kunstler is the fact that 1965 was also the year when the USA reopened its doors to low-skilled immigrants from the Third World – who very quickly became competitors with black Americans. And then the Boom ended, and corporate American, influenced by thinking such as that displayed in Lewis Powell's (in)famous 1971 memorandum, decided to claw back the gains made by the working and middle classes in the previous 3 decades. ..."
"... "Wow – is there ever negative!" ..."
"... You also misrepresent reality to your readers. No, the black underclass is not larger, more dysfunctional, and more alienated now than in the 1960's, when cities across the country burned and machine guns were stationed on the Capitol steps. The "racial divide" is not "starker now than ever"; that's just preposterous to anyone who was alive then. And nobody I've ever known felt "shame" over the "outcome of the civil rights campaign". I know nobody who seeks to "punish and humiliate" the 'privileged'. ..."
"... My impression is that what Kunstler is doing here is diagnosing the long crisis of a decadent liberal post-modernity, and his stance is not that of either of the warring sides within our divorced-from-reality political establishment, neither that of the 'right' or 'left.' Which is why, logically, he published it here. National Review would never have accepted this piece ..."
"... "Globalization has acted, meanwhile, as a great leveler. It destroyed what was left of the working class -- the lower-middle class -- which included a great many white Americans who used to be able to support a family with simple labor." ..."
"... Young black people are told by their elders how lucky they are to grow up today because things are much better than when grandpa was our age and we all know this history.\ ..."
"... It's clear that this part of the article was written from absolute ignorance of the actual black experience with no interest in even looking up some facts. Hell, Obama even gave a speech at Howard telling graduates how lucky they were to be young and black Today compared to even when he was their age in the 80's! ..."
"... E.g. Germany. Germany is anything but perfect and its recent government has screwed up with its immigration policies. But Germany has a high standard of living, an educated work force (including unions and skilled crafts-people), a more rational distribution of wealth and high quality universal health care that costs 47% less per capita than in the U.S. and with no intrinsic need to maraud around the planet wasting gobs of taxpayer money playing Global Cop. ..."
"... The larger subtext is that the U.S. house of cards was planned out and constructed as deliberately as the German model was. Only the objective was not to maximize the health and happiness of the citizenry, but to line the pockets of the parasitic Elites. (E.g., note that Mitch McConnell has been a government employee for 50 years but somehow acquired a net worth of over $10 Million.) ..."
On America's 'long emergency' of recession, globalization, and identity politics.
Can a people recover from an excursion into unreality? The USA's sojourn into an alternative universe of the mind accelerated
sharply after Wall Street nearly detonated the global financial system in 2008. That debacle was only one manifestation of an array
of accumulating threats to the postmodern order, which include the burdens of empire, onerous debt, population overshoot, fracturing
globalism, worries about energy, disruptive technologies, ecological havoc, and the specter of climate change.
A sense of gathering crisis, which I call the long emergency , persists. It is systemic and existential. It calls into
question our ability to carry on "normal" life much farther into this century, and all the anxiety that attends it is hard for the
public to process. It manifested itself first in finance because that was the most abstract and fragile of all the major activities
we depend on for daily life, and therefore the one most easily tampered with and shoved into criticality by a cadre of irresponsible
opportunists on Wall Street. Indeed, a lot of households were permanently wrecked after the so-called Great Financial Crisis of 2008,
despite official trumpet blasts heralding "recovery" and the dishonestly engineered pump-up of capital markets since then.
With the election of 2016, symptoms of the long emergency seeped into the political system. Disinformation rules. There is
no coherent consensus about what is happening and no coherent proposals to do anything about it. The two parties are mired in paralysis
and dysfunction and the public's trust in them is at epic lows. Donald Trump is viewed as a sort of pirate president, a freebooting
freak elected by accident, "a disrupter" of the status quo at best and at worst a dangerous incompetent playing with nuclear fire.
A state of war exists between the White House, the permanent D.C. bureaucracy, and the traditional news media. Authentic leadership
is otherwise AWOL. Institutions falter. The FBI and the CIA behave like enemies of the people.
Bad ideas flourish in this nutrient medium of unresolved crisis. Lately, they actually dominate the scene on every side. A species
of wishful thinking that resembles a primitive cargo cult grips the technocratic class, awaiting magical rescue remedies that promise
to extend the regime of Happy Motoring, consumerism, and suburbia that makes up the armature of "normal" life in the USA.
They chatter
about electric driverless car fleets, home delivery drone services, and as-yet-undeveloped modes of energy production to replace
problematic fossil fuels, while ignoring the self-evident resource and capital constraints now upon us and even the laws of physics
-- especially entropy , the second law of thermodynamics. Their main mental block is their belief in infinite industrial growth
on a finite planet, an idea so powerfully foolish that it obviates their standing as technocrats.
The non-technocratic cohort of the thinking class squanders its waking hours on a quixotic campaign to destroy the remnant of
an American common culture and, by extension, a reviled Western civilization they blame for the failure in our time to establish
a utopia on earth. By the logic of the day, "inclusion" and "diversity" are achieved by forbidding the transmission of ideas, shutting
down debate, and creating new racially segregated college dorms. Sexuality is declared to not be biologically determined, yet so-called
cis-gendered persons (whose gender identity corresponds with their sex as detected at birth) are vilified by dint of
not being "other-gendered" -- thereby thwarting the pursuit of happiness of persons self-identified as other-gendered. Casuistry
anyone?
The universities beget a class of what Nassim Taleb prankishly called "intellectuals-yet-idiots," hierophants trafficking in fads
and falsehoods, conveyed in esoteric jargon larded with psychobabble in support of a therapeutic crypto-gnostic crusade bent on transforming
human nature to fit the wished-for utopian template of a world where anything goes. In fact, they have only produced a new intellectual
despotism worthy of Stalin, Mao Zedong, and Pol Pot.
In case you haven't been paying attention to the hijinks on campus -- the attacks on reason, fairness, and common decency, the
kangaroo courts, diversity tribunals, assaults on public speech and speakers themselves -- here is the key take-away: it's not about
ideas or ideologies anymore; it's purely about the pleasures of coercion, of pushing other people around. Coercion is fun and exciting!
In fact, it's intoxicating, and rewarded with brownie points and career advancement. It's rather perverse that this passion for tyranny
is suddenly so popular on the liberal left.
Until fairly recently, the Democratic Party did not roll that way. It was right-wing Republicans who tried to ban books, censor
pop music, and stifle free expression. If anything, Democrats strenuously defended the First Amendment, including the principle that
unpopular and discomforting ideas had to be tolerated in order to protect all speech. Back in in 1977 the ACLU defended the right
of neo-Nazis to march for their cause (National Socialist Party of America v. Village of Skokie, 432 U.S. 43).
The new and false idea that something labeled "hate speech" -- labeled by whom? -- is equivalent to violence floated out of the
graduate schools on a toxic cloud of intellectual hysteria concocted in the laboratory of so-called "post-structuralist" philosophy,
where sundry body parts of Michel Foucault, Jacques Derrida, Judith Butler, and Gilles Deleuze were sewn onto a brain comprised of
one-third each Thomas Hobbes, Saul Alinsky, and Tupac Shakur to create a perfect Frankenstein monster of thought. It all boiled down
to the proposition that the will to power negated all other human drives and values, in particular the search for truth. Under this
scheme, all human relations were reduced to a dramatis personae of the oppressed and their oppressors, the former generally
"people of color" and women, all subjugated by whites, mostly males. Tactical moves in politics among these self-described "oppressed"
and "marginalized" are based on the credo that the ends justify the means (the Alinsky model).
This is the recipe for what we call identity politics, the main thrust of which these days, the quest for "social justice," is
to present a suit against white male privilege and, shall we say, the horse it rode in on: western civ. A peculiar feature of the
social justice agenda is the wish to erect strict boundaries around racial identities while erasing behavioral boundaries, sexual
boundaries, and ethical boundaries. Since so much of this thought-monster is actually promulgated by white college professors and
administrators, and white political activists, against people like themselves, the motives in this concerted campaign might appear
puzzling to the casual observer.
I would account for it as the psychological displacement among this political cohort of their shame, disappointment, and despair
over the outcome of the civil rights campaign that started in the 1960s and formed the core of progressive ideology. It did not bring
about the hoped-for utopia. The racial divide in America is starker now than ever, even after two terms of a black president. Today,
there is more grievance and resentment, and less hope for a better future, than when Martin Luther King made the case for progress
on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in 1963. The recent flash points of racial conflict -- Ferguson, the Dallas police ambush, the
Charleston church massacre, et cetera -- don't have to be rehearsed in detail here to make the point that there is a great deal of
ill feeling throughout the land, and quite a bit of acting out on both sides.
The black underclass is larger, more dysfunctional, and more alienated than it was in the 1960s. My theory, for what it's worth,
is that the civil rights legislation of 1964 and '65, which removed legal barriers to full participation in national life, induced
considerable anxiety among black citizens over the new disposition of things, for one reason or another. And that is exactly why
a black separatism movement arose as an alternative at the time, led initially by such charismatic figures as Malcolm X and Stokely
Carmichael. Some of that was arguably a product of the same youthful energy that drove the rest of the Sixties counterculture: adolescent
rebellion. But the residue of the "Black Power" movement is still present in the widespread ambivalence about making covenant with
a common culture, and it has only been exacerbated by a now long-running "multiculturalism and diversity" crusade that effectively
nullifies the concept of a national common culture.
What follows from these dynamics is the deflection of all ideas that don't feed a narrative of power relations between oppressors
and victims, with the self-identified victims ever more eager to exercise their power to coerce, punish, and humiliate their self-identified
oppressors, the "privileged," who condescend to be abused to a shockingly masochistic degree. Nobody stands up to this organized
ceremonial nonsense. The punishments are too severe, including the loss of livelihood, status, and reputation, especially in the
university. Once branded a "racist," you're done. And venturing to join the oft-called-for "honest conversation about race" is certain
to invite that fate.
Globalization has acted, meanwhile, as a great leveler. It destroyed what was left of the working class -- the lower-middle class
-- which included a great many white Americans who used to be able to support a family with simple labor. Hung out to dry economically,
this class of whites fell into many of the same behaviors as the poor blacks before them: absent fathers, out-of-wedlock births,
drug abuse. Then the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 wiped up the floor with the middle-middle class above them, foreclosing on their
homes and futures, and in their desperation many of these people became Trump voters -- though I doubt that Trump himself truly understood
how this all worked exactly. However, he did see that the white middle class had come to identify as yet another victim group, allowing
him to pose as their champion.
The evolving matrix of rackets that prompted the 2008 debacle has only grown more elaborate and craven as the old economy of
stuff dies and is replaced by a financialized economy of swindles and frauds . Almost nothing in America's financial life
is on the level anymore, from the mendacious "guidance" statements of the Federal Reserve, to the official economic statistics of
the federal agencies, to the manipulation of all markets, to the shenanigans on the fiscal side, to the pervasive accounting fraud
that underlies it all. Ironically, the systematic chiseling of the foundering middle class is most visible in the rackets that medicine
and education have become -- two activities that were formerly dedicated to doing no harm and seeking the truth !
Life in this milieu of immersive dishonesty drives citizens beyond cynicism to an even more desperate state of mind. The suffering
public ends up having no idea what is really going on, what is actually happening. The toolkit of the Enlightenment -- reason, empiricism
-- doesn't work very well in this socioeconomic hall of mirrors, so all that baggage is discarded for the idea that reality is just
a social construct, just whatever story you feel like telling about it. On the right, Karl Rove expressed this point of view some
years ago when he bragged, of the Bush II White House, that "we make our own reality." The left says nearly the same thing in the
post-structuralist malarkey of academia: "you make your own reality." In the end, both sides are left with a lot of bad feelings
and the belief that only raw power has meaning.
Erasing psychological boundaries is a dangerous thing. When the rackets finally come to grief -- as they must because their operations
don't add up -- and the reckoning with true price discovery commences at the macro scale, the American people will find themselves
in even more distress than they've endured so far. This will be the moment when either nobody has any money, or there is plenty of
worthless money for everyone. Either way, the functional bankruptcy of the nation will be complete, and nothing will work anymore,
including getting enough to eat. That is exactly the moment when Americans on all sides will beg someone to step up and push them
around to get their world working again. And even that may not avail.
James Howard Kunstler's many books include The Geography of Nowhere, The Long Emergency, Too Much Magic: Wishful Thinking,
Technology, and the Fate of the Nation , and the World Made by Hand novel series. He blogs on Mondays and Fridays at
Kunstler.com .
I think I need to go listen to an old-fashioned Christmas song now.
The ability to be financially, or at least resource, sustaining is the goal of many I know since we share a lack of confidence
in any of our institutions. We can only hope that God might look down with compassion on us, but He's not in the practical plan
of how to feed and sustain ourselves when things play out to their inevitable end. Having come from a better time, we joke about
our dystopian preparations, self-conscious about our "overreaction," but preparing all the same.
Look at it this way: Germany had to be leveled and its citizens reduced to abject penury, before Volkswagen could become the world's
biggest car company, and autobahns built throughout the world. It will be darkest before the dawn, and hopefully, that light that
comes after, won't be the miniature sunrise of a nuclear conflagration.
An excellent summary and bleak reminder of what our so-called civilization has become. How do we extricate ourselves from this
strange death spiral?
I have long suspected that we humans are creatures of our own personal/group/tribal/national/global fables and mythologies. We
are compelled by our genes, marrow, and blood to tell ourselves stories of our purpose and who we are. It is time for new mythologies
and stories of "who we are". This bizarre hyper-techno all-for-profit world needs a new story.
"The black underclass is larger, more dysfunctional, and more alienated than it was in the 1960s. My theory, for what it's worth,
is that the civil rights legislation of 1964 and '65, which removed legal barriers to full participation in national life, induced
considerable anxiety among black citizens over the new disposition of things, for one reason or another."
Um, forgotten by Kunstler is the fact that 1965 was also the year when the USA reopened its doors to low-skilled immigrants
from the Third World – who very quickly became competitors with black Americans. And then the Boom ended, and corporate American,
influenced by thinking such as that displayed in Lewis Powell's (in)famous 1971 memorandum, decided to claw back the gains made
by the working and middle classes in the previous 3 decades.
Hey Jim, I know you love to blame Wall Street and the Republicans for the GFC. I remember back in '08 you were urging Democrats
to blame it all on Republicans to help Obama win. But I have news for you. It wasn't Wall Street that caused the GFC. The crisis
actually had its roots in the Clinton Administration's use of the Community Reinvestment Act to pressure banks to relax mortgage
underwriting standards. This was done at the behest of left wing activists who claimed (without evidence, of course) that the
standards discriminated against minorities. The result was an effective repeal of all underwriting standards and an explosion
of real estate speculation with borrowed money. Speculation with borrowed money never ends well.
I have to laugh, too, when you say that it's perverse that the passion for tyranny is popular on the left. Have you ever heard
of the French Revolution? How about the USSR? Communist China? North Korea? Et cetera.
Leftism is leftism. Call it Marxism, Communism, socialism, liberalism, progressivism, or what have you. The ideology is the
same. Only the tactics and methods change. Destroy the evil institutions of marriage, family, and religion, and Man's innate goodness
will shine forth, and the glorious Godless utopia will naturally result.
Of course, the father of lies is ultimately behind it all. "He was a liar and a murderer from the beginning."
When man turns his back on God, nothing good happens. That's the most fundamental problem in Western society today. Not to
say that there aren't other issues, but until we return to God, there's not much hope for improvement.
Hmm. I just wandered over here by accident. Being a construction contractor, I don't know enough about globalization, academia,
or finance to evaluate your assertions about those realms. But being in a biracial family, and having lived, worked, and worshiped
equally in white and black communities, I can evaluate your statements about social justice, race, and civil rights.
Long story short, you pick out fringe liberal ideas, misrepresent them as mainstream among liberals, and shoot them down. Casuistry,
anyone?
You also misrepresent reality to your readers. No, the black underclass is not larger, more dysfunctional, and more alienated
now than in the 1960's, when cities across the country burned and machine guns were stationed on the Capitol steps. The "racial
divide" is not "starker now than ever"; that's just preposterous to anyone who was alive then. And nobody I've ever known felt
"shame" over the "outcome of the civil rights campaign". I know nobody who seeks to "punish and humiliate" the 'privileged'.
I get that this column is a quick toss-off before the holiday, and that your strength is supposed to be in your presentation,
not your ideas. For me, it's a helpful way to rehearse debunking common tropes that I'll encounter elsewhere.
But, really, your readers deserve better, and so do the people you misrepresent. We need bad liberal ideas to be critiqued
while they're still on the fringe. But by calling fringe ideas mainstream, you discredit yourself, misinform your readers, and
contribute to stereotypes both of liberals and of conservatives. I'm looking for serious conservative critiques that help me take
a second look at familiar ideas. I won't be back.
I disagree, NoahK, that the whole is incohesive, and I also disagree that these are right-wing talking points.
The theme of this piece is the long crisis in the US, its nature and causes. At no point does this essay, despite it stream
of consciousness style, veer away from that theme. Hence it is cohesive.
As for the right wing charge, though it is true, to be sure, that Kunstler's position is in many respects classically conservative
-- he believes for example that there should be a national consensus on certain fundamentals, such as whether or not there are
two sexes (for the most part), or, instead, an infinite variety of sexes chosen day by day at whim -- you must have noticed that
he condemned both the voluntarism of Karl Rove AND the voluntarism of the post-structuralist crowd.
My impression is that what Kunstler is doing here is diagnosing the long crisis of a decadent liberal post-modernity, and his stance is not that of either
of the warring sides within our divorced-from-reality political establishment, neither that of the 'right' or 'left.' Which is
why, logically, he published it here. National Review would never have accepted this piece. QED.
This malaise is rooted in human consciousness that when reflecting on itself celebrating its capacity for apperception suffers
from the tension that such an inquiry, such an inward glance produces. In a word, the capacity for the human being to be aware
of his or herself as an intelligent being capable of reflecting on aspects of reality through the artful manipulation of symbols
engenders this tension, this angst.
Some will attempt to extinguish this inner tension through intoxication while others through the thrill of war, and it has
been played out since the dawn of man and well documented when the written word emerged.
The malaise which Mr. Kunstler addresses as the problem of our times is rooted in our existence from time immemorial. But the
problem is not only existential but ontological. It is rooted in our being as self-aware creatures. Thus no solution avails itself
as humanity in and of itself is the problem. Each side (both right and left) seeks its own anodyne whether through profligacy
or intolerance, and each side mans the barricades to clash experiencing the adrenaline rush that arises from the perpetual call
to arms.
"Globalization has acted, meanwhile, as a great leveler. It destroyed what was left of the working class -- the lower-middle class
-- which included a great many white Americans who used to be able to support a family with simple labor."
And to whom do we hand
the tab for this? Globalization is a word. It is a concept, a talking point. Globalization is oligarchy by another name. Unfortunately,
under-educated, deplorable, Americans; regardless of party affiliation/ideology have embraced. And the most ironic part?
Russia
and China (the eventual surviving oligarchies) will eventually have to duke it out to decide which superpower gets to make the
USA it's b*tch (excuse prison reference, but that's where we're headed folks).
And one more irony. Only in American, could Christianity,
which was grew from concepts like compassion, generosity, humility, and benevolence; be re-branded and 'weaponized' to further
greed, bigotry, misogyny, intolerance, and violence/war. Americans fiddled (over same sex marriage, abortion, who has to bake
wedding cakes, and who gets to use which public restroom), while the oligarchs burned the last resources (natural, financial,
and even legal).
"Today, there is more grievance and resentment, and less hope for a better future, than when Martin Luther King made the case
for progress on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in 1963."
Spoken like a white guy who has zero contact with black people. I mean, even a little bit of research and familiarity would
give lie to the idea that blacks are more pessimistic about life today than in the 1960's.
Black millenials are the most optimistic group of Americans about the future. Anyone who has spent any significant time around
older black people will notice that you don't hear the rose colored memories of the past. Black people don't miss the 1980's,
much less the 1950's. Young black people are told by their elders how lucky they are to grow up today because things are much
better than when grandpa was our age and we all know this history.\
It's clear that this part of the article was written from absolute
ignorance of the actual black experience with no interest in even looking up some facts. Hell, Obama even gave a speech at Howard
telling graduates how lucky they were to be young and black Today compared to even when he was their age in the 80's!
Here is the direct quote;
"In my inaugural address, I remarked that just 60 years earlier, my father might not have been served in a D.C. restaurant
-- at least not certain of them. There were no black CEOs of Fortune 500 companies. Very few black judges. Shoot, as Larry Wilmore
pointed out last week, a lot of folks didn't even think blacks had the tools to be a quarterback. Today, former Bull Michael Jordan
isn't just the greatest basketball player of all time -- he owns the team. (Laughter.) When I was graduating, the main black hero
on TV was Mr. T. (Laughter.) Rap and hip hop were counterculture, underground. Now, Shonda Rhimes owns Thursday night, and Beyoncé
runs the world. (Laughter.) We're no longer only entertainers, we're producers, studio executives. No longer small business owners
-- we're CEOs, we're mayors, representatives, Presidents of the United States. (Applause.)
I am not saying gaps do not persist. Obviously, they do. Racism persists. Inequality persists. Don't worry -- I'm going to
get to that. But I wanted to start, Class of 2016, by opening your eyes to the moment that you are in. If you had to choose one
moment in history in which you could be born, and you didn't know ahead of time who you were going to be -- what nationality,
what gender, what race, whether you'd be rich or poor, gay or straight, what faith you'd be born into -- you wouldn't choose 100
years ago. You wouldn't choose the fifties, or the sixties, or the seventies. You'd choose right now. If you had to choose a time
to be, in the words of Lorraine Hansberry, "young, gifted, and black" in America, you would choose right now. (Applause.)"
I love reading about how the Community Reinvestment Act was the catalyst of all that is wrong in the world. As someone in the
industry the issue was actually twofold. The Commodities Futures Modernization Act turned the mortgage securities market into
a casino with the underlying actual debt instruments multiplied through the use of additional debt instruments tied to the performance
but with no actual underlying value. These securities were then sold around the world essentially infecting the entire market.
In order that feed the beast, these NON GOVERNMENT loans had their underwriting standards lowered to rediculous levels. If you
run out of qualified customers, just lower the qualifications. Government loans such as FHA, VA, and USDA were avoided because
it was easier to qualify people with the new stuff. And get paid. The short version is all of the incentives that were in place
at the time, starting with the Futures Act, directly led to the actions that culminated in the Crash. So yes, it was the government,
just a different piece of legislation.
Kunstler itemizing the social and economic pathologies in the United States is not enough. Because there are other models that
demonstrate it didn't have to be this way.
E.g. Germany. Germany is anything but perfect and its recent government has screwed up with its immigration policies. But Germany
has a high standard of living, an educated work force (including unions and skilled crafts-people), a more rational distribution
of wealth and high quality universal health care that costs 47% less per capita than in the U.S. and with no intrinsic need to
maraud around the planet wasting gobs of taxpayer money playing Global Cop.
The larger subtext is that the U.S. house of cards was planned out and constructed as deliberately as the German model was.
Only the objective was not to maximize the health and happiness of the citizenry, but to line the pockets of the parasitic Elites.
(E.g., note that Mitch McConnell has been a government employee for 50 years but somehow acquired a net worth of over $10 Million.)
P.S. About the notionally high U.S. GDP. Factor out the TRILLIONS inexplicably hoovered up by the pathological health care
system, the metastasized and sanctified National Security State (with its Global Cop shenanigans) and the cronied-up Ponzi scheme
of electron-churn financialization ginned up by Goldman Sachs and the rest of the Banksters, and then see how much GDP that reflects
the actual wealth of the middle class is left over.
Right-Wing Dittoheads and Fox Watchers love to blame the Community Reinvestment Act. It allows them to blame both poor black people
AND the government. The truth is that many parties were to blame.
One of the things I love about this rag is that almost all of the comments are included.
You may be sure that similar commenting privilege doesn't exist most anywhere else.
Any disfavor regarding the supposed bleakness with the weak hearted souls aside, Mr K's broadside seems pretty spot on to me.
I think the author overlooks the fact that government over the past 30 to 40 years has been tilting the playing field ever more
towards the uppermost classes and against the middle class. The evisceration of the middle class is plain to see.
If the the common man had more money and security, lots of our current intrasocial conflicts would be far less intense.
Andrew Imlay: You provide a thoughtful corrective to one of Kunstler's more hyperbolic claims. And you should know that his jeremiad
doesn't represent usual fare at TAC. So do come back.
Whether or not every one of Kunstler's assertions can withstand a rigorous fact-check, he is a formidable rhetorician. A generous
serving of Weltschmerz is just what the season calls for.
America is stupefied from propaganda on steroids for, largely from the right wing, 25? years of Limbaugh, Fox, etc etc etc Clinton
hate x 10, "weapons of mass destruction", "they hate us because we are free", birtherism, death panels, Jade Helm, pedophile pizza, and more Clinton hate porn.
Americans have been taught to worship the wealthy regardless of how they got there. Americans have been taught they are "Exceptional" (better, smarter, more godly than every one else) in spite of outward appearances.
Americans are under educated and encouraged to make decisions based on emotion from constant barrage of extra loud advertising
from birth selling illusion.
Americans brain chemistry is most likely as messed up as the rest of their bodies from junk or molested food. Are they even
capable of normal thought?
Donald Trump has convinced at least a third of Americans that only he, Fox, Breitbart and one or two other sources are telling
the Truth, every one else is lying and that he is their friend.
Is it possible we are just plane doomed and there's no way out?
I loathe the cotton candy clown and his Quislings; however, I must admit, his presence as President of the United States has forced
everyone (left, right, religious, non-religious) to look behind the curtain. He has done more to dis-spell the idealism of both
liberal and conservative, Democrat and Republican, rich and poor, than any other elected official in history. The sheer amount
of mind-numbing absurdity resulting from a publicity stunt that got out of control ..I am 70 and I have seen a lot. This is beyond
anything I could ever imagine. America is not going to improve or even remain the same. It is in a 4 year march into worse, three
years to go.
Mr. Kuntzler has an honest and fairly accurate assessment of the situation. And as usual, the liberal audience that TAC is trying
so hard to reach, is tossing out their usual talking points whilst being in denial of the situation.
The Holy Bible teaches us that repentance is the first crucial step on the path towards salvation. Until the progressives,
from their alleged "elite" down the rank and file at Kos, HuffPo, whatever, take a good, long, hard look at the current national
dumpster fire and start claiming some responsibility, America has no chance of solving problems or fixing anything.
Kunstler must have had a good time writing this, and I had a good time reading it. Skewed perspective, wild overstatement, and
obsessive cherry-picking of the rare checkable facts are mixed with a little eye of newt and toe of frog and smothered in a oar
and roll of rhetoric that was thrilling to be immersed in. Good work!
aah, same old Kunstler, slightly retailored for the Trump years.
for those of you familiar with him, remember his "peak oil" mania from the late 00s and early 2010s? every blog post was about
it. every new year was going to be IT: the long emergency would start, people would be Mad Maxing over oil supplies cos prices
at the pump would be $10 a gallon or somesuch.
in this new rant, i did a control-F for "peak oil" and hey, not a mention. I guess even cranks like Kunstler know when to give
a tired horse a rest.
Kunstler once again waxes eloquent on the American body politic. Every word rings true, except when it doesn't. At times poetic,
at other times paranoid, Kunstler does us a great service by pointing a finger at the deepest pain points in America, any one
of which could be the geyser that brings on catastrophic failure.
However, as has been pointed out, he definitely does not hang out with black people. For example, the statement:
But the residue of the "Black Power" movement is still present in the widespread ambivalence about making covenant with a common
culture, and it has only been exacerbated by a now long-running "multiculturalism and diversity" crusade that effectively nullifies
the concept of a national common culture.
The notion of a 'national common culture' is interesting but pretty much a fantasy that never existed, save colonial times.
Yet Kunstler's voice is one that must be heard, even if he is mostly tuning in to the widespread radicalism on both ends of
the spectrum, albeit in relatively small numbers. Let's face it, people are in the streets marching, yelling, and hating and mass
murders keep happening, with the regularity of Old Faithful. And he makes a good point about academia loosing touch with reality
much of the time. He's spot on about the false expectations of what technology can do for the economy, which is inflated with
fiat currency and God knows how many charlatans and hucksters. And yes, the white working class is feeling increasingly like a
'victim group.'
While Kunstler may be more a poet than a lawyer, more songwriter than historian, my gut feeling is that America had better
take notice of him, as The American ship of state is being swept by a ferocious tide and the helmsman is high on Fentanyl (made
in China).
Re: The crisis actually had its roots in the Clinton Administration's use of the Community Reinvestment Act
Here we go again with this rotting zombie which rises from its grave no matter how many times it has been debunked by statisticians
and reputable economists (and no, not just those on the left– the ranks include Bruce Bartlett for example, a solid Reaganist).
To reiterate again : the CRA played no role in the mortgage boom and bust. Among other facts in the way of that hypothesis is
the fact that riskiest loans were being made by non-bank lenders (Countrywide) who were not covered by the CRA which only applied
to actual banks– and the banks did not really get into the game full tilt, lowering their lending standards, until late in the
game, c. 2005, in response to their loss of business to the non-bank lenders. Ditto for the GSEs, which did not lower their standards
until 2005 and even then relied on wall Street to vet the subprime loans they were buying.
To be sure, blaming Wall Street for everything is also wrong-headed, though wall Street certainly did some stupid, greedy and
shady things (No, I am not letting them off the hook!) But the cast of miscreants is numbered in the millions and it stretches
around the planet. Everyone (for example) who got into the get-rich-quick Ponzi scheme of house flipping, especially if they lied
about their income to do so. And everyone who took out a HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit) and foolishly charged it up on a consumption
binge. And shall we talk about the mortgage brokers who coached people into lying, the loan officers who steered customers into
the riskiest (and highest earning) loans they could, the sellers who asked palace-prices for crackerbox hovels, the appraisers
who rubber-stamped such prices, the regulators who turned a blind eye to all the fraud and malfeasance, the ratings agencies who
handed out AAA ratings to securities full of junk, the politicians who rejoiced over the apparent "Bush Boom" well, I could continue,
but you get the picture.
"The Holy Bible teaches us that repentance is the first crucial step on the path towards salvation. Until the progressives, from
their alleged "elite" down the rank and file at Kos, HuffPo, whatever, take a good, long, hard look at the current national dumpster
fire and start claiming some responsibility, America has no chance of solving problems or fixing anything."
Pretty sure that calling other people to repent of their sin of disagreeing with you is not quite what the Holy Bible intended.
"... With the election of 2016, symptoms of the long emergency seeped into the political system. Disinformation rules. There is no coherent consensus about what is happening and no coherent proposals to do anything about it. The two parties are mired in paralysis and dysfunction and the public's trust in them is at epic lows. Donald Trump is viewed as a sort of pirate president, a freebooting freak elected by accident, "a disrupter" of the status quo at best and at worst a dangerous incompetent playing with nuclear fire. A state of war exists between the White House, the permanent D.C. bureaucracy, and the traditional news media. Authentic leadership is otherwise AWOL. Institutions falter. The FBI and the CIA behave like enemies of the people. ..."
"... They chatter about electric driverless car fleets, home delivery drone services, and as-yet-undeveloped modes of energy production to replace problematic fossil fuels, while ignoring the self-evident resource and capital constraints now upon us and even the laws of physics -- especially entropy , the second law of thermodynamics. Their main mental block is their belief in infinite industrial growth on a finite planet, an idea so powerfully foolish that it obviates their standing as technocrats. ..."
"... The universities beget a class of what Nassim Taleb prankishly called "intellectuals-yet-idiots," hierophants trafficking in fads and falsehoods, conveyed in esoteric jargon larded with psychobabble in support of a therapeutic crypto-gnostic crusade bent on transforming human nature to fit the wished-for utopian template of a world where anything goes. In fact, they have only produced a new intellectual despotism worthy of Stalin, Mao Zedong, and Pol Pot. ..."
"... Until fairly recently, the Democratic Party did not roll that way. It was right-wing Republicans who tried to ban books, censor pop music, and stifle free expression. If anything, Democrats strenuously defended the First Amendment, including the principle that unpopular and discomforting ideas had to be tolerated in order to protect all speech. Back in in 1977 the ACLU defended the right of neo-Nazis to march for their cause (National Socialist Party of America v. Village of Skokie, 432 U.S. 43). ..."
"... This is the recipe for what we call identity politics, the main thrust of which these days, the quest for "social justice," is to present a suit against white male privilege and, shall we say, the horse it rode in on: western civ. A peculiar feature of the social justice agenda is the wish to erect strict boundaries around racial identities while erasing behavioral boundaries, sexual boundaries, and ethical boundaries. Since so much of this thought-monster is actually promulgated by white college professors and administrators, and white political activists, against people like themselves, the motives in this concerted campaign might appear puzzling to the casual observer. ..."
"... The evolving matrix of rackets that prompted the 2008 debacle has only grown more elaborate and craven as the old economy of stuff dies and is replaced by a financialized economy of swindles and frauds . Almost nothing in America's financial life is on the level anymore, from the mendacious "guidance" statements of the Federal Reserve, to the official economic statistics of the federal agencies, to the manipulation of all markets, to the shenanigans on the fiscal side, to the pervasive accounting fraud that underlies it all. Ironically, the systematic chiseling of the foundering middle class is most visible in the rackets that medicine and education have become -- two activities that were formerly dedicated to doing no harm and seeking the truth ! ..."
"... Um, forgotten by Kunstler is the fact that 1965 was also the year when the USA reopened its doors to low-skilled immigrants from the Third World – who very quickly became competitors with black Americans. And then the Boom ended, and corporate American, influenced by thinking such as that displayed in Lewis Powell's (in)famous 1971 memorandum, decided to claw back the gains made by the working and middle classes in the previous 3 decades. ..."
"... "Wow – is there ever negative!" ..."
"... You also misrepresent reality to your readers. No, the black underclass is not larger, more dysfunctional, and more alienated now than in the 1960's, when cities across the country burned and machine guns were stationed on the Capitol steps. The "racial divide" is not "starker now than ever"; that's just preposterous to anyone who was alive then. And nobody I've ever known felt "shame" over the "outcome of the civil rights campaign". I know nobody who seeks to "punish and humiliate" the 'privileged'. ..."
"... My impression is that what Kunstler is doing here is diagnosing the long crisis of a decadent liberal post-modernity, and his stance is not that of either of the warring sides within our divorced-from-reality political establishment, neither that of the 'right' or 'left.' Which is why, logically, he published it here. National Review would never have accepted this piece ..."
"... "Globalization has acted, meanwhile, as a great leveler. It destroyed what was left of the working class -- the lower-middle class -- which included a great many white Americans who used to be able to support a family with simple labor." ..."
"... Young black people are told by their elders how lucky they are to grow up today because things are much better than when grandpa was our age and we all know this history.\ ..."
"... It's clear that this part of the article was written from absolute ignorance of the actual black experience with no interest in even looking up some facts. Hell, Obama even gave a speech at Howard telling graduates how lucky they were to be young and black Today compared to even when he was their age in the 80's! ..."
"... E.g. Germany. Germany is anything but perfect and its recent government has screwed up with its immigration policies. But Germany has a high standard of living, an educated work force (including unions and skilled crafts-people), a more rational distribution of wealth and high quality universal health care that costs 47% less per capita than in the U.S. and with no intrinsic need to maraud around the planet wasting gobs of taxpayer money playing Global Cop. ..."
"... The larger subtext is that the U.S. house of cards was planned out and constructed as deliberately as the German model was. Only the objective was not to maximize the health and happiness of the citizenry, but to line the pockets of the parasitic Elites. (E.g., note that Mitch McConnell has been a government employee for 50 years but somehow acquired a net worth of over $10 Million.) ..."
On America's 'long emergency' of recession, globalization, and identity politics.
Can a people recover from an excursion into unreality? The USA's sojourn into an alternative universe of the mind accelerated
sharply after Wall Street nearly detonated the global financial system in 2008. That debacle was only one manifestation of an array
of accumulating threats to the postmodern order, which include the burdens of empire, onerous debt, population overshoot, fracturing
globalism, worries about energy, disruptive technologies, ecological havoc, and the specter of climate change.
A sense of gathering crisis, which I call the long emergency , persists. It is systemic and existential. It calls into
question our ability to carry on "normal" life much farther into this century, and all the anxiety that attends it is hard for the
public to process. It manifested itself first in finance because that was the most abstract and fragile of all the major activities
we depend on for daily life, and therefore the one most easily tampered with and shoved into criticality by a cadre of irresponsible
opportunists on Wall Street. Indeed, a lot of households were permanently wrecked after the so-called Great Financial Crisis of 2008,
despite official trumpet blasts heralding "recovery" and the dishonestly engineered pump-up of capital markets since then.
With the election of 2016, symptoms of the long emergency seeped into the political system. Disinformation rules. There is
no coherent consensus about what is happening and no coherent proposals to do anything about it. The two parties are mired in paralysis
and dysfunction and the public's trust in them is at epic lows. Donald Trump is viewed as a sort of pirate president, a freebooting
freak elected by accident, "a disrupter" of the status quo at best and at worst a dangerous incompetent playing with nuclear fire.
A state of war exists between the White House, the permanent D.C. bureaucracy, and the traditional news media. Authentic leadership
is otherwise AWOL. Institutions falter. The FBI and the CIA behave like enemies of the people.
Bad ideas flourish in this nutrient medium of unresolved crisis. Lately, they actually dominate the scene on every side. A species
of wishful thinking that resembles a primitive cargo cult grips the technocratic class, awaiting magical rescue remedies that promise
to extend the regime of Happy Motoring, consumerism, and suburbia that makes up the armature of "normal" life in the USA.
They chatter
about electric driverless car fleets, home delivery drone services, and as-yet-undeveloped modes of energy production to replace
problematic fossil fuels, while ignoring the self-evident resource and capital constraints now upon us and even the laws of physics
-- especially entropy , the second law of thermodynamics. Their main mental block is their belief in infinite industrial growth
on a finite planet, an idea so powerfully foolish that it obviates their standing as technocrats.
The non-technocratic cohort of the thinking class squanders its waking hours on a quixotic campaign to destroy the remnant of
an American common culture and, by extension, a reviled Western civilization they blame for the failure in our time to establish
a utopia on earth. By the logic of the day, "inclusion" and "diversity" are achieved by forbidding the transmission of ideas, shutting
down debate, and creating new racially segregated college dorms. Sexuality is declared to not be biologically determined, yet so-called
cis-gendered persons (whose gender identity corresponds with their sex as detected at birth) are vilified by dint of
not being "other-gendered" -- thereby thwarting the pursuit of happiness of persons self-identified as other-gendered. Casuistry
anyone?
The universities beget a class of what Nassim Taleb prankishly called "intellectuals-yet-idiots," hierophants trafficking in fads
and falsehoods, conveyed in esoteric jargon larded with psychobabble in support of a therapeutic crypto-gnostic crusade bent on transforming
human nature to fit the wished-for utopian template of a world where anything goes. In fact, they have only produced a new intellectual
despotism worthy of Stalin, Mao Zedong, and Pol Pot.
In case you haven't been paying attention to the hijinks on campus -- the attacks on reason, fairness, and common decency, the
kangaroo courts, diversity tribunals, assaults on public speech and speakers themselves -- here is the key take-away: it's not about
ideas or ideologies anymore; it's purely about the pleasures of coercion, of pushing other people around. Coercion is fun and exciting!
In fact, it's intoxicating, and rewarded with brownie points and career advancement. It's rather perverse that this passion for tyranny
is suddenly so popular on the liberal left.
Until fairly recently, the Democratic Party did not roll that way. It was right-wing Republicans who tried to ban books, censor
pop music, and stifle free expression. If anything, Democrats strenuously defended the First Amendment, including the principle that
unpopular and discomforting ideas had to be tolerated in order to protect all speech. Back in in 1977 the ACLU defended the right
of neo-Nazis to march for their cause (National Socialist Party of America v. Village of Skokie, 432 U.S. 43).
The new and false idea that something labeled "hate speech" -- labeled by whom? -- is equivalent to violence floated out of the
graduate schools on a toxic cloud of intellectual hysteria concocted in the laboratory of so-called "post-structuralist" philosophy,
where sundry body parts of Michel Foucault, Jacques Derrida, Judith Butler, and Gilles Deleuze were sewn onto a brain comprised of
one-third each Thomas Hobbes, Saul Alinsky, and Tupac Shakur to create a perfect Frankenstein monster of thought. It all boiled down
to the proposition that the will to power negated all other human drives and values, in particular the search for truth. Under this
scheme, all human relations were reduced to a dramatis personae of the oppressed and their oppressors, the former generally
"people of color" and women, all subjugated by whites, mostly males. Tactical moves in politics among these self-described "oppressed"
and "marginalized" are based on the credo that the ends justify the means (the Alinsky model).
This is the recipe for what we call identity politics, the main thrust of which these days, the quest for "social justice," is
to present a suit against white male privilege and, shall we say, the horse it rode in on: western civ. A peculiar feature of the
social justice agenda is the wish to erect strict boundaries around racial identities while erasing behavioral boundaries, sexual
boundaries, and ethical boundaries. Since so much of this thought-monster is actually promulgated by white college professors and
administrators, and white political activists, against people like themselves, the motives in this concerted campaign might appear
puzzling to the casual observer.
I would account for it as the psychological displacement among this political cohort of their shame, disappointment, and despair
over the outcome of the civil rights campaign that started in the 1960s and formed the core of progressive ideology. It did not bring
about the hoped-for utopia. The racial divide in America is starker now than ever, even after two terms of a black president. Today,
there is more grievance and resentment, and less hope for a better future, than when Martin Luther King made the case for progress
on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in 1963. The recent flash points of racial conflict -- Ferguson, the Dallas police ambush, the
Charleston church massacre, et cetera -- don't have to be rehearsed in detail here to make the point that there is a great deal of
ill feeling throughout the land, and quite a bit of acting out on both sides.
The black underclass is larger, more dysfunctional, and more alienated than it was in the 1960s. My theory, for what it's worth,
is that the civil rights legislation of 1964 and '65, which removed legal barriers to full participation in national life, induced
considerable anxiety among black citizens over the new disposition of things, for one reason or another. And that is exactly why
a black separatism movement arose as an alternative at the time, led initially by such charismatic figures as Malcolm X and Stokely
Carmichael. Some of that was arguably a product of the same youthful energy that drove the rest of the Sixties counterculture: adolescent
rebellion. But the residue of the "Black Power" movement is still present in the widespread ambivalence about making covenant with
a common culture, and it has only been exacerbated by a now long-running "multiculturalism and diversity" crusade that effectively
nullifies the concept of a national common culture.
What follows from these dynamics is the deflection of all ideas that don't feed a narrative of power relations between oppressors
and victims, with the self-identified victims ever more eager to exercise their power to coerce, punish, and humiliate their self-identified
oppressors, the "privileged," who condescend to be abused to a shockingly masochistic degree. Nobody stands up to this organized
ceremonial nonsense. The punishments are too severe, including the loss of livelihood, status, and reputation, especially in the
university. Once branded a "racist," you're done. And venturing to join the oft-called-for "honest conversation about race" is certain
to invite that fate.
Globalization has acted, meanwhile, as a great leveler. It destroyed what was left of the working class -- the lower-middle class
-- which included a great many white Americans who used to be able to support a family with simple labor. Hung out to dry economically,
this class of whites fell into many of the same behaviors as the poor blacks before them: absent fathers, out-of-wedlock births,
drug abuse. Then the Great Financial Crisis of 2008 wiped up the floor with the middle-middle class above them, foreclosing on their
homes and futures, and in their desperation many of these people became Trump voters -- though I doubt that Trump himself truly understood
how this all worked exactly. However, he did see that the white middle class had come to identify as yet another victim group, allowing
him to pose as their champion.
The evolving matrix of rackets that prompted the 2008 debacle has only grown more elaborate and craven as the old economy of
stuff dies and is replaced by a financialized economy of swindles and frauds . Almost nothing in America's financial life
is on the level anymore, from the mendacious "guidance" statements of the Federal Reserve, to the official economic statistics of
the federal agencies, to the manipulation of all markets, to the shenanigans on the fiscal side, to the pervasive accounting fraud
that underlies it all. Ironically, the systematic chiseling of the foundering middle class is most visible in the rackets that medicine
and education have become -- two activities that were formerly dedicated to doing no harm and seeking the truth !
Life in this milieu of immersive dishonesty drives citizens beyond cynicism to an even more desperate state of mind. The suffering
public ends up having no idea what is really going on, what is actually happening. The toolkit of the Enlightenment -- reason, empiricism
-- doesn't work very well in this socioeconomic hall of mirrors, so all that baggage is discarded for the idea that reality is just
a social construct, just whatever story you feel like telling about it. On the right, Karl Rove expressed this point of view some
years ago when he bragged, of the Bush II White House, that "we make our own reality." The left says nearly the same thing in the
post-structuralist malarkey of academia: "you make your own reality." In the end, both sides are left with a lot of bad feelings
and the belief that only raw power has meaning.
Erasing psychological boundaries is a dangerous thing. When the rackets finally come to grief -- as they must because their operations
don't add up -- and the reckoning with true price discovery commences at the macro scale, the American people will find themselves
in even more distress than they've endured so far. This will be the moment when either nobody has any money, or there is plenty of
worthless money for everyone. Either way, the functional bankruptcy of the nation will be complete, and nothing will work anymore,
including getting enough to eat. That is exactly the moment when Americans on all sides will beg someone to step up and push them
around to get their world working again. And even that may not avail.
James Howard Kunstler's many books include The Geography of Nowhere, The Long Emergency, Too Much Magic: Wishful Thinking,
Technology, and the Fate of the Nation , and the World Made by Hand novel series. He blogs on Mondays and Fridays at
Kunstler.com .
I think I need to go listen to an old-fashioned Christmas song now.
The ability to be financially, or at least resource, sustaining is the goal of many I know since we share a lack of confidence
in any of our institutions. We can only hope that God might look down with compassion on us, but He's not in the practical plan
of how to feed and sustain ourselves when things play out to their inevitable end. Having come from a better time, we joke about
our dystopian preparations, self-conscious about our "overreaction," but preparing all the same.
Look at it this way: Germany had to be leveled and its citizens reduced to abject penury, before Volkswagen could become the world's
biggest car company, and autobahns built throughout the world. It will be darkest before the dawn, and hopefully, that light that
comes after, won't be the miniature sunrise of a nuclear conflagration.
An excellent summary and bleak reminder of what our so-called civilization has become. How do we extricate ourselves from this
strange death spiral?
I have long suspected that we humans are creatures of our own personal/group/tribal/national/global fables and mythologies. We
are compelled by our genes, marrow, and blood to tell ourselves stories of our purpose and who we are. It is time for new mythologies
and stories of "who we are". This bizarre hyper-techno all-for-profit world needs a new story.
"The black underclass is larger, more dysfunctional, and more alienated than it was in the 1960s. My theory, for what it's worth,
is that the civil rights legislation of 1964 and '65, which removed legal barriers to full participation in national life, induced
considerable anxiety among black citizens over the new disposition of things, for one reason or another."
Um, forgotten by Kunstler is the fact that 1965 was also the year when the USA reopened its doors to low-skilled immigrants
from the Third World – who very quickly became competitors with black Americans. And then the Boom ended, and corporate American,
influenced by thinking such as that displayed in Lewis Powell's (in)famous 1971 memorandum, decided to claw back the gains made
by the working and middle classes in the previous 3 decades.
Hey Jim, I know you love to blame Wall Street and the Republicans for the GFC. I remember back in '08 you were urging Democrats
to blame it all on Republicans to help Obama win. But I have news for you. It wasn't Wall Street that caused the GFC. The crisis
actually had its roots in the Clinton Administration's use of the Community Reinvestment Act to pressure banks to relax mortgage
underwriting standards. This was done at the behest of left wing activists who claimed (without evidence, of course) that the
standards discriminated against minorities. The result was an effective repeal of all underwriting standards and an explosion
of real estate speculation with borrowed money. Speculation with borrowed money never ends well.
I have to laugh, too, when you say that it's perverse that the passion for tyranny is popular on the left. Have you ever heard
of the French Revolution? How about the USSR? Communist China? North Korea? Et cetera.
Leftism is leftism. Call it Marxism, Communism, socialism, liberalism, progressivism, or what have you. The ideology is the
same. Only the tactics and methods change. Destroy the evil institutions of marriage, family, and religion, and Man's innate goodness
will shine forth, and the glorious Godless utopia will naturally result.
Of course, the father of lies is ultimately behind it all. "He was a liar and a murderer from the beginning."
When man turns his back on God, nothing good happens. That's the most fundamental problem in Western society today. Not to
say that there aren't other issues, but until we return to God, there's not much hope for improvement.
Hmm. I just wandered over here by accident. Being a construction contractor, I don't know enough about globalization, academia,
or finance to evaluate your assertions about those realms. But being in a biracial family, and having lived, worked, and worshiped
equally in white and black communities, I can evaluate your statements about social justice, race, and civil rights.
Long story short, you pick out fringe liberal ideas, misrepresent them as mainstream among liberals, and shoot them down. Casuistry,
anyone?
You also misrepresent reality to your readers. No, the black underclass is not larger, more dysfunctional, and more alienated
now than in the 1960's, when cities across the country burned and machine guns were stationed on the Capitol steps. The "racial
divide" is not "starker now than ever"; that's just preposterous to anyone who was alive then. And nobody I've ever known felt
"shame" over the "outcome of the civil rights campaign". I know nobody who seeks to "punish and humiliate" the 'privileged'.
I get that this column is a quick toss-off before the holiday, and that your strength is supposed to be in your presentation,
not your ideas. For me, it's a helpful way to rehearse debunking common tropes that I'll encounter elsewhere.
But, really, your readers deserve better, and so do the people you misrepresent. We need bad liberal ideas to be critiqued
while they're still on the fringe. But by calling fringe ideas mainstream, you discredit yourself, misinform your readers, and
contribute to stereotypes both of liberals and of conservatives. I'm looking for serious conservative critiques that help me take
a second look at familiar ideas. I won't be back.
I disagree, NoahK, that the whole is incohesive, and I also disagree that these are right-wing talking points.
The theme of this piece is the long crisis in the US, its nature and causes. At no point does this essay, despite it stream
of consciousness style, veer away from that theme. Hence it is cohesive.
As for the right wing charge, though it is true, to be sure, that Kunstler's position is in many respects classically conservative
-- he believes for example that there should be a national consensus on certain fundamentals, such as whether or not there are
two sexes (for the most part), or, instead, an infinite variety of sexes chosen day by day at whim -- you must have noticed that
he condemned both the voluntarism of Karl Rove AND the voluntarism of the post-structuralist crowd.
My impression is that what Kunstler is doing here is diagnosing the long crisis of a decadent liberal post-modernity, and his stance is not that of either
of the warring sides within our divorced-from-reality political establishment, neither that of the 'right' or 'left.' Which is
why, logically, he published it here. National Review would never have accepted this piece. QED.
This malaise is rooted in human consciousness that when reflecting on itself celebrating its capacity for apperception suffers
from the tension that such an inquiry, such an inward glance produces. In a word, the capacity for the human being to be aware
of his or herself as an intelligent being capable of reflecting on aspects of reality through the artful manipulation of symbols
engenders this tension, this angst.
Some will attempt to extinguish this inner tension through intoxication while others through the thrill of war, and it has
been played out since the dawn of man and well documented when the written word emerged.
The malaise which Mr. Kunstler addresses as the problem of our times is rooted in our existence from time immemorial. But the
problem is not only existential but ontological. It is rooted in our being as self-aware creatures. Thus no solution avails itself
as humanity in and of itself is the problem. Each side (both right and left) seeks its own anodyne whether through profligacy
or intolerance, and each side mans the barricades to clash experiencing the adrenaline rush that arises from the perpetual call
to arms.
"Globalization has acted, meanwhile, as a great leveler. It destroyed what was left of the working class -- the lower-middle class
-- which included a great many white Americans who used to be able to support a family with simple labor."
And to whom do we hand
the tab for this? Globalization is a word. It is a concept, a talking point. Globalization is oligarchy by another name. Unfortunately,
under-educated, deplorable, Americans; regardless of party affiliation/ideology have embraced. And the most ironic part?
Russia
and China (the eventual surviving oligarchies) will eventually have to duke it out to decide which superpower gets to make the
USA it's b*tch (excuse prison reference, but that's where we're headed folks).
And one more irony. Only in American, could Christianity,
which was grew from concepts like compassion, generosity, humility, and benevolence; be re-branded and 'weaponized' to further
greed, bigotry, misogyny, intolerance, and violence/war. Americans fiddled (over same sex marriage, abortion, who has to bake
wedding cakes, and who gets to use which public restroom), while the oligarchs burned the last resources (natural, financial,
and even legal).
"Today, there is more grievance and resentment, and less hope for a better future, than when Martin Luther King made the case
for progress on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial in 1963."
Spoken like a white guy who has zero contact with black people. I mean, even a little bit of research and familiarity would
give lie to the idea that blacks are more pessimistic about life today than in the 1960's.
Black millenials are the most optimistic group of Americans about the future. Anyone who has spent any significant time around
older black people will notice that you don't hear the rose colored memories of the past. Black people don't miss the 1980's,
much less the 1950's. Young black people are told by their elders how lucky they are to grow up today because things are much
better than when grandpa was our age and we all know this history.\
It's clear that this part of the article was written from absolute
ignorance of the actual black experience with no interest in even looking up some facts. Hell, Obama even gave a speech at Howard
telling graduates how lucky they were to be young and black Today compared to even when he was their age in the 80's!
Here is the direct quote;
"In my inaugural address, I remarked that just 60 years earlier, my father might not have been served in a D.C. restaurant
-- at least not certain of them. There were no black CEOs of Fortune 500 companies. Very few black judges. Shoot, as Larry Wilmore
pointed out last week, a lot of folks didn't even think blacks had the tools to be a quarterback. Today, former Bull Michael Jordan
isn't just the greatest basketball player of all time -- he owns the team. (Laughter.) When I was graduating, the main black hero
on TV was Mr. T. (Laughter.) Rap and hip hop were counterculture, underground. Now, Shonda Rhimes owns Thursday night, and Beyoncé
runs the world. (Laughter.) We're no longer only entertainers, we're producers, studio executives. No longer small business owners
-- we're CEOs, we're mayors, representatives, Presidents of the United States. (Applause.)
I am not saying gaps do not persist. Obviously, they do. Racism persists. Inequality persists. Don't worry -- I'm going to
get to that. But I wanted to start, Class of 2016, by opening your eyes to the moment that you are in. If you had to choose one
moment in history in which you could be born, and you didn't know ahead of time who you were going to be -- what nationality,
what gender, what race, whether you'd be rich or poor, gay or straight, what faith you'd be born into -- you wouldn't choose 100
years ago. You wouldn't choose the fifties, or the sixties, or the seventies. You'd choose right now. If you had to choose a time
to be, in the words of Lorraine Hansberry, "young, gifted, and black" in America, you would choose right now. (Applause.)"
I love reading about how the Community Reinvestment Act was the catalyst of all that is wrong in the world. As someone in the
industry the issue was actually twofold. The Commodities Futures Modernization Act turned the mortgage securities market into
a casino with the underlying actual debt instruments multiplied through the use of additional debt instruments tied to the performance
but with no actual underlying value. These securities were then sold around the world essentially infecting the entire market.
In order that feed the beast, these NON GOVERNMENT loans had their underwriting standards lowered to rediculous levels. If you
run out of qualified customers, just lower the qualifications. Government loans such as FHA, VA, and USDA were avoided because
it was easier to qualify people with the new stuff. And get paid. The short version is all of the incentives that were in place
at the time, starting with the Futures Act, directly led to the actions that culminated in the Crash. So yes, it was the government,
just a different piece of legislation.
Kunstler itemizing the social and economic pathologies in the United States is not enough. Because there are other models that
demonstrate it didn't have to be this way.
E.g. Germany. Germany is anything but perfect and its recent government has screwed up with its immigration policies. But Germany
has a high standard of living, an educated work force (including unions and skilled crafts-people), a more rational distribution
of wealth and high quality universal health care that costs 47% less per capita than in the U.S. and with no intrinsic need to
maraud around the planet wasting gobs of taxpayer money playing Global Cop.
The larger subtext is that the U.S. house of cards was planned out and constructed as deliberately as the German model was.
Only the objective was not to maximize the health and happiness of the citizenry, but to line the pockets of the parasitic Elites.
(E.g., note that Mitch McConnell has been a government employee for 50 years but somehow acquired a net worth of over $10 Million.)
P.S. About the notionally high U.S. GDP. Factor out the TRILLIONS inexplicably hoovered up by the pathological health care
system, the metastasized and sanctified National Security State (with its Global Cop shenanigans) and the cronied-up Ponzi scheme
of electron-churn financialization ginned up by Goldman Sachs and the rest of the Banksters, and then see how much GDP that reflects
the actual wealth of the middle class is left over.
Right-Wing Dittoheads and Fox Watchers love to blame the Community Reinvestment Act. It allows them to blame both poor black people
AND the government. The truth is that many parties were to blame.
One of the things I love about this rag is that almost all of the comments are included.
You may be sure that similar commenting privilege doesn't exist most anywhere else.
Any disfavor regarding the supposed bleakness with the weak hearted souls aside, Mr K's broadside seems pretty spot on to me.
I think the author overlooks the fact that government over the past 30 to 40 years has been tilting the playing field ever more
towards the uppermost classes and against the middle class. The evisceration of the middle class is plain to see.
If the the common man had more money and security, lots of our current intrasocial conflicts would be far less intense.
Andrew Imlay: You provide a thoughtful corrective to one of Kunstler's more hyperbolic claims. And you should know that his jeremiad
doesn't represent usual fare at TAC. So do come back.
Whether or not every one of Kunstler's assertions can withstand a rigorous fact-check, he is a formidable rhetorician. A generous
serving of Weltschmerz is just what the season calls for.
America is stupefied from propaganda on steroids for, largely from the right wing, 25? years of Limbaugh, Fox, etc etc etc Clinton
hate x 10, "weapons of mass destruction", "they hate us because we are free", birtherism, death panels, Jade Helm, pedophile pizza, and more Clinton hate porn.
Americans have been taught to worship the wealthy regardless of how they got there. Americans have been taught they are "Exceptional" (better, smarter, more godly than every one else) in spite of outward appearances.
Americans are under educated and encouraged to make decisions based on emotion from constant barrage of extra loud advertising
from birth selling illusion.
Americans brain chemistry is most likely as messed up as the rest of their bodies from junk or molested food. Are they even
capable of normal thought?
Donald Trump has convinced at least a third of Americans that only he, Fox, Breitbart and one or two other sources are telling
the Truth, every one else is lying and that he is their friend.
Is it possible we are just plane doomed and there's no way out?
I loathe the cotton candy clown and his Quislings; however, I must admit, his presence as President of the United States has forced
everyone (left, right, religious, non-religious) to look behind the curtain. He has done more to dis-spell the idealism of both
liberal and conservative, Democrat and Republican, rich and poor, than any other elected official in history. The sheer amount
of mind-numbing absurdity resulting from a publicity stunt that got out of control ..I am 70 and I have seen a lot. This is beyond
anything I could ever imagine. America is not going to improve or even remain the same. It is in a 4 year march into worse, three
years to go.
Mr. Kuntzler has an honest and fairly accurate assessment of the situation. And as usual, the liberal audience that TAC is trying
so hard to reach, is tossing out their usual talking points whilst being in denial of the situation.
The Holy Bible teaches us that repentance is the first crucial step on the path towards salvation. Until the progressives,
from their alleged "elite" down the rank and file at Kos, HuffPo, whatever, take a good, long, hard look at the current national
dumpster fire and start claiming some responsibility, America has no chance of solving problems or fixing anything.
Kunstler must have had a good time writing this, and I had a good time reading it. Skewed perspective, wild overstatement, and
obsessive cherry-picking of the rare checkable facts are mixed with a little eye of newt and toe of frog and smothered in a oar
and roll of rhetoric that was thrilling to be immersed in. Good work!
aah, same old Kunstler, slightly retailored for the Trump years.
for those of you familiar with him, remember his "peak oil" mania from the late 00s and early 2010s? every blog post was about
it. every new year was going to be IT: the long emergency would start, people would be Mad Maxing over oil supplies cos prices
at the pump would be $10 a gallon or somesuch.
in this new rant, i did a control-F for "peak oil" and hey, not a mention. I guess even cranks like Kunstler know when to give
a tired horse a rest.
Kunstler once again waxes eloquent on the American body politic. Every word rings true, except when it doesn't. At times poetic,
at other times paranoid, Kunstler does us a great service by pointing a finger at the deepest pain points in America, any one
of which could be the geyser that brings on catastrophic failure.
However, as has been pointed out, he definitely does not hang out with black people. For example, the statement:
But the residue of the "Black Power" movement is still present in the widespread ambivalence about making covenant with a common
culture, and it has only been exacerbated by a now long-running "multiculturalism and diversity" crusade that effectively nullifies
the concept of a national common culture.
The notion of a 'national common culture' is interesting but pretty much a fantasy that never existed, save colonial times.
Yet Kunstler's voice is one that must be heard, even if he is mostly tuning in to the widespread radicalism on both ends of
the spectrum, albeit in relatively small numbers. Let's face it, people are in the streets marching, yelling, and hating and mass
murders keep happening, with the regularity of Old Faithful. And he makes a good point about academia loosing touch with reality
much of the time. He's spot on about the false expectations of what technology can do for the economy, which is inflated with
fiat currency and God knows how many charlatans and hucksters. And yes, the white working class is feeling increasingly like a
'victim group.'
While Kunstler may be more a poet than a lawyer, more songwriter than historian, my gut feeling is that America had better
take notice of him, as The American ship of state is being swept by a ferocious tide and the helmsman is high on Fentanyl (made
in China).
Re: The crisis actually had its roots in the Clinton Administration's use of the Community Reinvestment Act
Here we go again with this rotting zombie which rises from its grave no matter how many times it has been debunked by statisticians
and reputable economists (and no, not just those on the left– the ranks include Bruce Bartlett for example, a solid Reaganist).
To reiterate again : the CRA played no role in the mortgage boom and bust. Among other facts in the way of that hypothesis is
the fact that riskiest loans were being made by non-bank lenders (Countrywide) who were not covered by the CRA which only applied
to actual banks– and the banks did not really get into the game full tilt, lowering their lending standards, until late in the
game, c. 2005, in response to their loss of business to the non-bank lenders. Ditto for the GSEs, which did not lower their standards
until 2005 and even then relied on wall Street to vet the subprime loans they were buying.
To be sure, blaming Wall Street for everything is also wrong-headed, though wall Street certainly did some stupid, greedy and
shady things (No, I am not letting them off the hook!) But the cast of miscreants is numbered in the millions and it stretches
around the planet. Everyone (for example) who got into the get-rich-quick Ponzi scheme of house flipping, especially if they lied
about their income to do so. And everyone who took out a HELOC (Home Equity Line of Credit) and foolishly charged it up on a consumption
binge. And shall we talk about the mortgage brokers who coached people into lying, the loan officers who steered customers into
the riskiest (and highest earning) loans they could, the sellers who asked palace-prices for crackerbox hovels, the appraisers
who rubber-stamped such prices, the regulators who turned a blind eye to all the fraud and malfeasance, the ratings agencies who
handed out AAA ratings to securities full of junk, the politicians who rejoiced over the apparent "Bush Boom" well, I could continue,
but you get the picture.
"The Holy Bible teaches us that repentance is the first crucial step on the path towards salvation. Until the progressives, from
their alleged "elite" down the rank and file at Kos, HuffPo, whatever, take a good, long, hard look at the current national dumpster
fire and start claiming some responsibility, America has no chance of solving problems or fixing anything."
Pretty sure that calling other people to repent of their sin of disagreeing with you is not quite what the Holy Bible intended.
David Stockman estimates that front-loaded tax cuts will produce a federal deficit of
about $1.3 trillion in fiscal year 2019. In effect, fiscal stimulus is being cranked from 3
to 6 percent of GDP.
Gunning the economy could help reduce R party losses in the 2018 midterm elections. But
it's very poor timing for the 2020 presidential election. By then, with rate hikes biting and
stimulus easing, the economy is likely to take a tumble at the worst possible time for
re-electing the incumbent.
But given the regal out-of-touchness of elitist Dems, coupled with their jaw-dropping
incompetence, they should still be able to seize defeat from the jaws of victory.
My biggest complaint with this argument is that it's far from clear the tax bill is
gunning the economy. It looks much more like looting, in terms of where the gains go.
Doubling the standard deduction might have a big effect on a number of cash-constrained
households. It won't do much for the 47%, and of course it expires. I don't know how much
effect it will have in aggregate though.
I agree with you on the looting. What I expect that the Republicans are counting on
is:
1) The base (the people most immediately screwed by this) will still vote with them
because of tribalism and a few symbolic bonuses from a grateful AT&T.
2) The middle-class will be carried through the mid-terms by the immediate cuts and some
measure of gullibility.
3) The stock owners will enjoy the sugar high as buybacks kick off speculation, and thus be
more predisposed to it.
4) The donor cash will cushion the blow of any real blowback and the Dems will fumble the
fight over extending the "temporary" cuts so that the Repubs can look like middle class
saviors.
5) Even if all that fails they get cushy jobs as consultants.
Disagree that it gins the economy because the distribution of the tax cuts looks more like
a QE program than what tax cuts were when they cut taxes for working people.
The tax cuts go to those who hoard money and take it out of circulation – the rich
and corporations. They aren't going to spend more, they will save more or do stock buy
backs.
Thus the velocity of money will decline further.
So where is the gin coming from because I'm not seeing it.
Tax cuts are one part of fiscal stimulus. But so is increased direct spending. Stockman
elaborates:
We expect FY 2019 outlays to rise by upwards of $200 billion from CBO's most recent
baseline projection. That would include $75 billion for defense, $65 billion for disaster
aid, $25 billion for increased of domestic appropriations above the sequester cap, $20
billion for the ObamaCare subsidies and another $15 billion for interest on higher spending
and lower revenues.
Those kinds of spending increases are now virtually certain, and will take total FY 2019
outlays to around $4.575 trillion -- nearly 20% more than the $3.85 trillion spent during
FY 2016 during the run-up to the presidential election.
If such radically ramped-up spending fails to gin the economy, then we will be obliged to
question (as some do) whether fiscal stimulus actually works at all.
I don't really know what to tell you boo boo
I mean I try (you know I try)
I was referring to the tax cut, but you are right about the spending side and wrong too
IMO.
Disagree that this "increase" in spending – which is party a decrease of a decrease
– is even light years close to "radical" as you say.
The Defense spending is the least stimulate type of fiscal spending, Obamacare goes mostly
to rich gigantic corporations, disaster relief is transitory, and the interest goes to
investors.
So spending increases of a small very non radical nature that go largely to rich gigantic
corporations.
Ok I'm seeing some gin. But I'm still not seeing much gin.
"... By Bill Black, the author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One, an associate professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, and co-founder of Bank Whistleblowers United. Originally published at New Economic Perspectives ..."
"... A dilettante is a person who cultivates an area of interest, such as the arts, without real commitment or knowledge. The Dilettante Doctrine takes modern macro's arrogance to a new pinnacle. Only their model is legitimate, and it is illegitimate to criticize their DSGE models, even though they repeatedly fail. Instead, we must all "like" their models. We cannot make any statements about macroeconomics unless we "like [DSGE] models." The Dilettante Doctrine is a sure-fire means of winning academic disputes. You demand that your critics endorse your views, or you dismiss them as dilettantes unworthy of respect. ..."
"... Readers may recall that the scientific method works in the opposite direction of the Dilettante Doctrine. Modern macro proposes a theory (DSGE) and tests its predictive ability. The DSGE models fail recurrently, on the most important macro events, and the failures are massive. The scientific method requires the theorist of the failed model to declare it falsified. Economists who "like" repeatedly falsified DSGE models are, as Paul Romer famously declared, engaged in "pseudoscience." ..."
"... BTW, one of the best takes of macroeconomics I've encountered is Steve Keen's work, which I gratefully acknowledge I first read here on NC. Keen's critique of DSGE models is utterly spot-on and mathematically sophisticated. Part of the problem with economics is that it has been afflicted with 'math envy' since its earliest days, and the ADM results were proved with Banach Space methods, so they just *had* to be right. Google the phrase "spherical cow" for more on this mindset, not to mention one of the few really funny math jokes I know. ..."
By Bill Black, the author of The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One, an associate
professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, and co-founder of
Bank Whistleblowers United. Originally published at New
Economic Perspectives
The truly exceptional thing about 'modern macroeconomics' devotees is not that they are so
consistently and horrifically wrong or that they persist in their errors – but their
exceptional combination of arrogance and disdain for those who have dramatically better records
and broader and more relevant expertise. Kartik Athreya, the Richmond Fed's Research Director,
led the modern macro parade on June 17, 2010 with his blog
(which he later withdrew in embarrassment) when he announced the Athreya Axiom of Absolute
Arrogance.
So far, I've claimed something a bit obnoxious-sounding: that writers who have not taken a
year of PhD coursework in a decent economics department (and passed their PhD qualifying
exams), cannot meaningfully advance the discussion on economic policy. Taken literally, I am
almost certainly wrong. Some of them have great ideas, for sure. But this is irrelevant. The
real issue is that there is extremely low likelihood that the speculations of the untrained,
on a topic almost pathologically riddled by dynamic considerations and feedback effects, will
offer anything new. Moreover, there is a substantial likelihood that it will instead offer
something incoherent or misleading.
Modern macro devotees suffered far worse substantive embarrassment than Athreya's personal
embarrassment. After Athreya (briefly) published his Axiom, a flurry of the world's top
economists issued devastating critiques of modern macro's foundational myths in their dynamic
stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. The takedowns enraged and humiliated modern macro
devotees, and because they are incapable of staying embarrassed, they doubled-down on Athreya's
Axiom by announcing the Dilettante
Doctrine .
People who don't like dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are
dilettantes. By this we mean they aren't serious about policy analysis.
Lawrence J. Christiano, Martin S. Eichenbaum, and Mathias Trabandt, authored "On DSGE Models
on November 9, 2017. Christiano and Eichenbaum are freshwater modern macro devotees trained
largely at the University of Minnesota, and now holding prominent positions at Northwestern.
Trabandt is a German modern macro devotee.
A dilettante is a person who cultivates an area of interest, such as the arts, without
real commitment or knowledge. The Dilettante Doctrine takes modern macro's arrogance to a new
pinnacle. Only their model is legitimate, and it is illegitimate to criticize their DSGE
models, even though they repeatedly fail. Instead, we must all "like" their models. We cannot
make any statements about macroeconomics unless we "like [DSGE] models." The Dilettante
Doctrine is a sure-fire means of winning academic disputes. You demand that your critics
endorse your views, or you dismiss them as dilettantes unworthy of respect.
Readers may recall that the scientific method works in the opposite direction of the
Dilettante Doctrine. Modern macro proposes a theory (DSGE) and tests its predictive ability.
The DSGE models fail recurrently, on the most important macro events, and the failures are
massive. The scientific method requires the theorist of the failed model to declare it
falsified. Economists who "like" repeatedly falsified DSGE models are, as Paul Romer famously
declared, engaged in "pseudoscience."
Athreya then inadvertently compounded modern macro's failures by putting in writing a bit
too many of modern macro's darker secrets in his 2013
book about macroeconomics. Athreya confirmed many of the most fundamental criticisms of
modern macro devotees, revealed additional failures that were even more devastating, and
illustrated perfectly the blindness of modern macro's devotees to their dogmas and logic.
Athreya did recognize clearly one dogma that made modern macro devotees unable to spot even the
world's largest bubble – but treated that failure as if it were a virtue. Modern macro
devotees train macroeconomists to be unable to identify warn against, or take action to end
even the most destructive bubbles. This is like training surgeons to believe that shock cannot
occur and they should ignore shock in treating patients.
I will return to these errors in subsequent columns, but in this initial column, I introduce
Athreya's most embarrassing and devastating admission. Athreya goes on for over 100 pages on
how wondrous his fellow modern macro devotees are. They are brilliant specialists who are the
world's top practitioners of ultra-rigorous logic and ultra-sophisticated mathematics skills
that make it impossible for them to be anything other than transparent and scrupulously honest.
In particular, Athreya tells the reader that the paramount problem in macro and microeconomics
is recognizing, understanding, and countering deceit, the defining element at law of fraud.
(Actually, he does that only in an exceptionally opaque manner.) On p.103, however, Athreya
admits that modern macro devotees know that their vaunted DSGE models rest on a fatal premise
that is so preposterous and embarrassing that they dare not state it. "A silent assumption of
the ADM model" is that "the ADM God" perfectly prevents all crimes, predation, and deceit
– at no cost. Note that this means that modern macro devotees (silently) designed their
DSGE models to be incapable of recognizing, understanding, measuring, or countering deceit,
which they admit is their paramount and fatal failure.
It is never good to be arrogant. It is always dangerous and limiting to be (proudly)
ignorant of fields that are likely to have superior understanding of issues such as deceit,
fraud, and predation. Athreya's book displays his pride in both of these faults.
The authors of the Dilettante Doctrine inadvertently revealed another embarrassing modern
macro failure of great importance. It is the combination of repeated, devastating failure and
unfailing arrogance that defines (and dooms) modern macro as pseudoscientists. In fairness to
the authors, they announced their Dilettante Doctrine in the context of an article admitting
catastrophic errors in modern macro. They also unintentionally admit the non-scientific nature
of their enterprise. Consider this passage:
For [IMF's leader] to take DSGE model-based recommendations seriously, the economic
intuition underlying those recommendations has to be made in compelling and intuitive
ways.
Yes, they actually wrote that for anyone to take DSGE models "seriously" their "economic
intuition" must "be made intuitive." Wow, who knew science could be so 'intuitive?' Not
satisfied with announcing their new "intuitive method" as a substitute for the scientific
method, the authors double-down on the concept that 'intuition' is the secret sauce of
economics declaring that the super-secret is to keep that 'intuition' "simple."
To be convincing, it is critical for a DSGE modeler to understand and convey the economic
intuition behind the model's implications in simple and intuitive terms.
Notice that the authors are not stating the conditions required to make the DSGE models
'correct.' They are only interested in what practices will make the models' results
"convincing" to the bosses.
The bosses decide "actual policymaking." The Dilettante Doctrine authors declare
policymaking to be even less scientific than relying on 'simple' 'intuition' to convey DSGE
model results. It turns out that DSGE models are the 'canvas' on which modern macro devotees
"see the combined effect of the different colors" of their "art."
Inevitably, actual policymaking will always be to some extent an art. But even an artist
needs a canvas to see the combined effect of the different colors. A DSGE model is that
canvas.
These passages are not simply embarrassing, they are revealing. DSGE is a substantive farce
that repeatedly fails because modern macro devotees shaped their models from the beginning to
embrace laissez faire dogmas. The 'simple' 'intuitions' underlying DSGE models are the
most destructive laissez faire dogmas.
Narayana Kocherlakota's sly use of the word "almost" reveals his agreement with this
point.
[A]lmost coincidentally -- in these [early DSGE] models, all government interventions
(including all forms of stabilization policy) are undesirable.
The authors of the Dilettante Doctrine agree with Kocherlakota's observation about the
original DSGE models.
The associated policy implications are clear: there was no need for any form of government
intervention. In fact, government policies aimed at stabilizing the business cycle are
welfare-reducing.
Modern macro is proud that its 'freshwater' and 'saltwater' factions have achieved a grand
fusion. The saltwater types agreed to use DSGE models and the freshwater types agreed that the
freshwater types could add 'frictions' to the DSGE models that would allow the models to at
least purport to address some of the actual macroeconomic problems. There is a misleading view
that because the 'saltwater' types often call themselves "New Keynesians" they must have views
sympathetic to Keynesian thought. The Dilettante Doctrine authors make the useful point that
"New Keynesian" dogma is actually Milton Friedman's core laissez faire dogmas.
Prototypical pre-crisis DSGE models built upon the chassis of the RBC model to allow for
nominal frictions, both in labor and goods markets. These models are often referred to as New
Keynesian (NK) DSGE models. But, it would be just as appropriate to refer to them as
Friedmanite DSGE models. The reason is that they embody the fundamental world view
articulated in Friedman's seminal Presidential Address .
The Dilettante Doctrine authors admit that DSGE models failed at the most fundamental level
– they could not even spot that the economy was becoming progressively more dangerous and
harmful.
Pre-crisis DSGE models didn't predict the increasing vulnerability of the US economy to a
financial crisis.
The authors go badly wrong in multiple ways when they attempt to explain the DSGE models
failures and their implications for economic theory and policy.
There is still an ongoing debate about the causes of the financial crisis. Our view,
shared by Bernanke (2009) and many others, is that the financial crisis was precipitated by a
rollover crisis in a very large and highly levered shadow-banking sector that relied on
short-term debt to fund long-term assets.19
The trigger for the rollover crisis was developments in the housing sector. U.S. housing
prices had risen rapidly in the 1990's with the S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price
Index rising by a factor of roughly 2.5 between 1991 and 2006. The precise role played by
expectations, the subprime market, declining lending standards in mortgage markets, and
overly-loose monetary policy is not critical for our purposes. What is critical is that
housing prices began to decline in mid-2006, causing a fall in the value of the assets of
shadow banks that had heavily invested in mortgage-backed securities. The Fed's willingness
to provide a safety net for the shadow banking system was at best implicit, creating the
conditions under which a roll-over crisis was possible. In fact a rollover crisis did occur
and shadow banks had to sell their asset-backed securities at fire-sale prices, precipitating
the Great Recession.
In sum, the pre-crisis mainstream DSGE models failed to forecast the financial crisis
because they did not integrate the shadow banking system into their analysis.
I begin with the most fundamental failure – the failure to ask the right questions.
Two prominent examples are why didn't the DSGE models warn us decades ago that the economy was
systematically misallocating assets and creating the largest bubble in world history and what
should we do to change the perverse incentives harming the economy and economic stability?
Kocherlakota, in the same article from which I quoted above, emphasized that modern macro
failed to warn about the coming financial crisis and the Great Recession and failed to provide
effective policies to respond to them.
The dilettante article only uses the word 'bubble' once – to describe the tech bubble.
It never labels the vastly larger housing bubble a 'bubble.' The dilettante article's authors
claim it is not relevant for their purposes to know how the bubble arose, why it continued to
inflate for over a decade, why it burst, or why it triggered the global financial crisis and
the Great Recession. Only a dilettante could make or believe that claim.
Recall that Athreya emphasizes that deceit is the key factor that screws up economies
– and that DSGE models "silently" assume "the ADM God" makes deceit impossible. I have
explained in scores of columns why deceit, fraud, and predation were the central causes of the
housing bubble hyper-inflating, the financial crisis, and the creation of the Great Recession.
The dilettante authors refusal to call the housing bubble a bubble does not change the fact
that they claim that the dramatic fall in housing values after 2005 was the paramount "trigger"
of the financial crisis and the Great Recession.
The dilettante authors create a fiction about what "precipitat[ed] the Great Recession.
In fact a rollover crisis did occur and shadow banks had to sell their asset-backed
securities at fire-sale prices, precipitating the Great Recession.
The dilettante authors then make their twin ' mea culpa ' on behalf of modern
macro.
Against this background, we turn to the first of the two criticisms of DSGE models
mentioned above, namely their failure to signal the increasing vulnerability of the U.S.
economy to a financial crisis. This criticism is correct. The failure reflected a broader
failure of the economics community.
The failure was to allow a small shadow-banking system to metastasize into a massive,
poorly-regulated wild west-like sector that was not protected by deposit insurance or
lender-of-last-resort backstops.
We now turn to the second criticism of DSGE models, namely that they did not sufficiently
emphasize financial frictions. One reason why modelers did not emphasize financial frictions
in DSGE models is that until the recent crisis, post-war recessions in the U.S. and Western
Europe did not seem closely tied to disturbances in financial markets. The Savings and Loans
crisis in the US was a localized affair that did not grow into anything like the Great
Recession. Similarly, the stock market meltdown in the late 1980's and the bursting of the
tech-bubble in 2001 only had minor effects on aggregate economic activity.
At the same time, the financial frictions that were included in DSGE models did not seem
to have very big effects.
The dilettante authors have no idea how important their concessions are. Their premise is
that it was government regulation, deposit insurance, and the central bank's 'lender of last
resort' function that prevented prior epidemics of accounting control fraud from causing
anything worse than "minor effects on aggregate economic activity." The obvious problem is that
since its inception 30 years ago modern macro ideologues have claimed the opposite is true
– that governmental action is unnecessary and harmful. They constructed their DSGE models
to valorize their Friedmanite dogmas.
The less obvious problem is that freshwater modern macro has claimed that the lesson of the
financial crisis is the opposite. Athreya and the Richmond Fed have
preached for years that the federal safety net caused the housing problem, the financial
crisis, and the Great Recession. The Richmond Fed claims that the key policy response to future
financial crises is allowing the shadow sector to collapse in an orgy of "rollover
cris[e]s."
The broader problem is why the dilettante authors are so wedded to their failed models,
which at their core assume out of existence the institutions and events they say are most
critical to explaining the catastrophic failures of their models. Why, for example, start with
a general equilibrium model based on absurdly utopian assumptions (stated and unstated) that
invariably produces equilibrium when the things we most need to study involve the failure of
markets to function? It is nonsensical to make contradictory assumptions in different parts of
your model about human behavior. Modern macro models keep failing and their devotees' response
is to add (over time) dozens of fudges that posit that humans typically act in a manner that
contradicts to the explicit and unstated assumptions of the DSGE model about human behavior.
DSGE models increasingly resemble Borg constructs. The Borg also claim that there is no
alternative to assimilation into their collective.
Excellent points. Helps to explain how you get a supposedly serious site covering real
estate falling for ridiculous tripe about the root cause of the housing crisis (aka Great
Recession). Take a careful look at the bombshell "working paper" and the new "narrative"
cited, and you can see the groupstink of the Fed written all over it
https://betterdwelling.com/forget-subprime-canadian-real-estate-buyers-investors-crashed-the-us-market/
Modern mainstream macro is like a police detective whose model of the world states that
people are nice and the body heals itself, and that therefore we will all live happily ever
after. When confronted by a murder victim lying in a pool of their own blood, and that fact's
apparent incompatibility with their model of the world, they respond, "My model is correct
only, you see, it failed to account for sudden massive blood loss. How that loss of blood
happened is beyond the scope of my investigation, the important thing is that I've now
incorporated that knowledge in my new improved model, which proves that we will all live
happily ever after -- except in cases of a sudden, massive loss of blood ."
There has not been a big mea-culpa from neoliberal economists after the 2008 Financial
Crisis. I don't think there will be. Many are essentially the equal of religious
fundamentalists.
However, we should also remember that the very wealthy have backed the neoliberal
economists against the general public. Neolibe3ralism provides a pseudoscientific economic
excuse for what amounts to turning society into a plutocracy, which is precisely what the
rich want.
The GFC worked out very well for the neoliberal agenda. What you can't predict, you don't
need to prevent or protect against. If the result happens to be a massive transfer of funds
from states to speculators that eases the path to austerity and asset stripping, what's to
apologize for?
Lack of higher math skills precludes citizen involvement in economics.
Blame it on the math card in PCs that makes doing it by hand and thus learning and
understanding how numbers work.
Most economists lack higher math skills too, but that doesn't seem to be obstacle for
them. It's spherical chickens in a vacuum, models that are supposedly related to real world
but are simplified beyond recognition because most economists are ignorant of even
rudimentary statistics.
and you don't need math to discover that the holy Models rely on downright silly
assumptions about Human Beings.
"rational actors with perfect information".
lol.
Most of the economic actors I know do not even remotely resemble that.
and whomever said that modern econ is akin to fundamentalist religion is right on.
I can't read "Money" or watch CNBC without thinking about Pat Robertson or Billy Graham.
It's just a different god they worship.
With this in mind, I think it's hilarious that the current hyperventilation about
"cryptocurrency" could possibly be the bubble that, in popping, brings the whole mess
down.
"Masters of the Universe", indeed.
Personally I believe economic as practiced is an example of telling the boss (the King)
what they want to hear.
Economist appear descended form a long line of Court Magicians, telling the futures from
the entrails of an animal, consulting the spirits for guidance, or using a Chrystal ball.
Of more pointedly Bullshit, baffles brains.
Prof Black make the point that he DSGE models assume away fraud. They also assume people
are "rational actors, driven only by logic," that is: we are all Vulcans from Star Trek.
A simple view of women's fashions (high heels) with regard to comfort or safety would
demolish any theory of people as "rational actors." Or men's behavior over their "sports
teams."
To assume away human behavior and emotion, and thus chaos or catastrophe theory, would put
economists at odds with their masters, and cut their income, by the nearly always fatal, or
career limiting "telling truth to power."
It's interesting to speculate what would be the scope or size of common ground in a dialog
between anthropologists and economists. Null set perhaps?
Just a quick note for those who were initially confused by Bill Black's use of "modern
macroeconomic theory" and thought "modern monetary theory". (I know I did, and was initially
really confused by his take, and had to re-read the first three paragraphs a few times to
re-set my mental pointers). As far as I know (and I did a year of Ph.D economics at Stanford,
so I pass Arthreya's first test) I haven't heard of "modern" applied to DSGE macro but that
probably reflects my choice of reading material more than anything else. In short, "modern
macro" is bad, "modern monetary" is good.
BTW, one of the best takes of macroeconomics I've encountered is Steve Keen's work,
which I gratefully acknowledge I first read here on NC. Keen's critique of DSGE models is
utterly spot-on and mathematically sophisticated. Part of the problem with economics is that
it has been afflicted with 'math envy' since its earliest days, and the ADM results were
proved with Banach Space methods, so they just *had* to be right. Google the phrase
"spherical cow" for more on this mindset, not to mention one of the few really funny math
jokes I know.
Nice illustration of ideologically based ostrakism as practiced in Academia: "Larry [Summers] leaned back in his chair and offered me some advice. I had a choice. I could be an insider or I could
be an outsider. Outsiders can say whatever they want. But people on the inside don't listen to them. Insiders, however, get lots of access and a chance to push their ideas. People
- powerful people - listen to what they have to say. But insiders also understand one unbreakable rule: they don't criticize
other insiders."
Notable quotes:
"... A more probable school of thought is that this game was created as a con and a cover for the status quo capitalist establishment to indulge themselves in their hard money and liquidity fetishes, consequences be damned. ..."
"... The arguments over internal and external consistency of models is just a convenient misdirection from what policy makers are willing to risk and whose interests they are willing to risk policy decisions for ..."
"... Mathematical masturbations are just a smoke screen used to conceal a simple fact that those "economists" are simply banking oligarchy stooges. Hired for the specific purpose to provide a theoretical foundation for revanschism of financial oligarchy after New Deal run into problems. Revanschism that occurred in a form of installing neoliberal ideology in the USA in exactly the same role which Marxism was installed in the USSR. With "iron hand in velvet gloves" type of repressive apparatus to enforce it on each and every university student and thus to ensure the continues, recurrent brainwashing much like with Marxism on the USSR universities. ..."
"... To ensure continuation of power of "nomenklatura" in the first case and banking oligarchy in the second. Connections with reality be damned. Money does not smell. ..."
"... Economic departments fifth column of neoliberal stooges is paid very good money for their service of promoting and sustaining this edifice of neoliberal propaganda. Just look at Greg Mankiw and Rubin's boys. ..."
"... "Larry [Summers] leaned back in his chair and offered me some advice. I had a choice. I could be an insider or I could be an outsider. Outsiders can say whatever they want. But people on the inside don't listen to them. Insiders, however, get lots of access and a chance to push their ideas. People - powerful people - listen to what they have to say. But insiders also understand one unbreakable rule: they don't criticize other insiders." ..."
At the risk of oversimplifying might it not be as simple as stronger leanings towards IS-LM and kind are indicative of a bias
towards full employment and stronger leanings towards DSGE, microfoundations, and kind are indicative of a bias towards low inflation?
IN general I consider over-simplification a fault, if and only if, it is a rigidly adhered to final position. This is to say
that over-simplification is always a good starting point and never a good ending point. If in the end your problem was simple
to begin with, then the simplified answer would not be OVER-simplified anyway. It is just as bad to over-complicate a simple problem
as it is to over-simplify a complex problem. It is easier to build complexity on top of a simple foundation than it is to extract
simplicity from a complex foundation.
A lot of the Chicago School initiative into microfoundations and DSGE may have been motivated by a desire to bind Keynes in
a NAIRU straight-jacket. Even though economic policy making is largely done just one step at a time then that is still one step
too much if it might violate rentier interests.
Darryl FKA Ron -> Barry...
There are two possible (but unlikely) schools of (generously attributed to as) thought for which internal consistency might
take precedence over external consistency. One such school wants to consider what would be best in a perfect world full of perfect
people and then just assume that is best for the real world just to let the chips fall where they may according to the faults
and imperfections of the real world. The second such school is the one whose eyes just glaze over mesmerized by how over their
heads they are and remain affraid to ask any question lest they appear stupid.
A more probable school of thought is that this game was created as a con and a cover for the status quo capitalist establishment
to indulge themselves in their hard money and liquidity fetishes, consequences be damned.
Richard H. Serlin
Consistency sounds so good, Oh, of course we want consistency, who wouldn't?! But consistent in what way? What exactly do you
mean? Consistent with reality, or consistent with people all being superhumans? Which concept is usually more useful, or more
useful for the task at hand?
Essentially, they want models that are consistent with only certain things, and often because this
makes their preferred ideology look far better. They want models, typically, that are consistent with everyone in the world having
perfect expertise in every subject there is, from finance to medicine to engineering, perfect public information, and perfect
self-discipline, and usually on top, frictionless and perfectly complete markets, often perfectly competitive too.
But a big thing to note is that perfectly consistent people means a level of perfection in expertise, public information, self-discipline,
and "rationality", that's extremely at odds with how people actually are. And as a result, this can make the model extremely misleading
if it's interpreted very literally (as so often it is, especially by freshwater economists), or taken as The Truth, as Paul Krugman
puts it.
You get things like the equity premium "puzzle", which involves why people don't invest more in stocks when the risk-adjusted
return appears to usually be so abnormally good, and this "puzzle" can only be answered with "consistency", that people are all
perfectly expert in finance, with perfect information, so they must have some mysterious hidden good reason. It can't be at all
that it's because 65% of people answered incorrectly when asked how many reindeer would remain if Santa had to lay off 25% of
his eight reindeer ( http://richardhserlin.blogspot.com/2013/12/surveys-showing-massive-ignorance-and.html ).
Yes, these perfect optimizer consistency models can give useful insights, and help to see what is best, what we can do better,
and they can, in some cases, be good as approximations. But to say they should be used only, and interpreted literally, is, well,
inconsistent with optimal, rational behavior -- of the economist using them.
Richard H. Serlin -> Richard H. Serlin...
Of course, unless the economist using them is doing so to mislead people into supporting his libertarian/plutocratic ideology.
dilbert dogbert
As an old broken down mech engineer, I wonder why all the pissing and moaning about micro foundations vs aggregation. In strength
of materials equations that aggregate properties work quite well within the boundaries of the questions to be answered. We all
know that at the level of crystals, materials have much complexity. Even within crystals there is deeper complexities down to
the molecular levels. However, the addition of quantum mechanics adds no usable information about what materials to build a bridge
with.
But, when working at the scale of the most advanced computer chips quantum mechanics is required. WTF! I guess in economics
there is no quantum mechanics theories or even reliable aggregation theories.
Poor economists, doomed to argue, forever, over how many micro foundations can dance on the head of a pin.
RGC -> dilbert dogbert...
Endless discussions about how quantum effects aggregate to produce a material suitable for bridge building crowd out discussions
about where and when to build bridges. And if plutocrats fund the endless discussions, we get the prominent economists we have
today.
Darryl FKA Ron -> dilbert dogbert...
"...I guess in economics there is no quantum mechanics theories or even reliable aggregation theories..."
[I guess it depends upon what your acceptable confidence interval on reliability is. Most important difference that controls
all the domain differences between physical science and economics is that underlying physical sciences there is a deterministic
methodology for which probable error is merely a function of the inaccuracy in input metrics WHEREAS economics models are incomplete
probabilistic estimating models with no ability to provide a complete system model in a full range of circumstances.
YOu can design and build a bridge to your load and span requirements with alternative models for various designs with confidence
and highly effective accuracy repeatedly. No ecomomic theory, model, or combination of models and theories was ever intended to
be used as the blueprint for building an economy from the foundation up.
With all the formal trappings of economics the only effective usage is to decide what should be done in a given set of predetermined
circumstance to reach some modest desired effect. Even that modest goal is exposed to all kinds of risks inherent in assumptions,
incomplete information, externalities, and so on that can produce errors of uncertain potential bounds.
Nonetheless, well done economics can greatly reduce the risks encountered in the random walk of economics policy making. So
much so is this true, that the bigger questions in macro-economics policy making is what one is willing to risk and for whom.
The arguments over internal and external consistency of models is just a convenient misdirection from what policy makers
are willing to risk and whose interests they are willing to risk policy decisions for.]
Darryl FKA Ron -> Peter K....
unless you have a model which maps the real world fairly closely like quantum mechanics.
[You set a bar too high. Macro models at best will tell you what to do to move the economy in the direction that you seek to
go. They do not even ocme close to the notion of a theory of everything that you have in physics, even the theory of every little
thing that is provided by quantum mechanics. Physics is an empty metaphor for economics. Step one is to forgo physics envy in
pursuit of understanding suitable applications and domain constraints for economics models.
THe point is to reach a decision and to understand cause and effect directions. All precision is in the past and present. The
future is both imprecise and all that there is that is available to change.
For the most part an ounce of common sense and some simple narrative models are all that are essential for making those policy
decisions in and of themselves. HOWEVER, nation states are not ruled by economist philosopher kings and in the process of concensus
decision making by (little r)republican governments then human language is a very imprecise vehicle for communicating logic and
reason with respect to the management of complex systems. OTOH, mathematics has given us a universal language for communicating
logic and reason that is understood the same by everyone that really understands that language at all. Hence mathematical models
were born for the economists to write down their own thinking in clear precise terms and check their own work first and then share
it with others so equipped to understand the language of mathematics. Krugman has said as much many times and so has any and every
economist worth their salt.]
likbez -> Syaloch...
I agree with Pgl and PeterK. Certain commenters like Darryl seem convinced that the Chicago School (if not all of econ) is driven
by sinister, class-based motives to come up justifications for favoring the power elite over the masses. But based on what I've
read, it seems pretty obvious that the microfoundation guys just got caught up in their fancy math and their desire to produce
more elegant, internally consistent models and lost sight of the fact that their models didn't track reality.
That's completely wrong line of thinking, IMHO.
Mathematical masturbations are just a smoke screen used to conceal a simple fact that those "economists" are simply banking
oligarchy stooges. Hired for the specific purpose to provide a theoretical foundation for revanschism of financial oligarchy after
New Deal run into problems. Revanschism that occurred in a form of installing neoliberal ideology in the USA in exactly the same
role which Marxism was installed in the USSR.
With "iron hand in velvet gloves" type of repressive apparatus to enforce it on each and every university student and thus to
ensure the continues, recurrent brainwashing much like with Marxism on the USSR universities.
To ensure continuation of power of "nomenklatura" in the first case and banking oligarchy in the second. Connections with reality
be damned. Money does not smell.
Economic departments fifth column of neoliberal stooges is paid very good money for their service of promoting and sustaining
this edifice of neoliberal propaganda. Just look at Greg Mankiw and Rubin's boys.
But the key problem with neoliberalism is that the cure is worse then disease. And here mathematical masturbations are very
handy as a smoke screen to hide this simple fact.
likbez -> likbez...
Here is how Rubin's neoliberal boy Larry explained the situation to Elizabeth Warren:
"Larry [Summers] leaned back in his chair and offered me some advice. I had a choice. I could be an insider or I could
be an outsider. Outsiders can say whatever they want. But people on the inside don't listen to them. Insiders, however, get lots of access and a chance to push their ideas. People
- powerful people - listen to what they have to say. But insiders also understand one unbreakable rule: they don't criticize
other insiders."
Nice illustration of ideologically based ostrakism as practiced in Academia: "Larry [Summers] leaned back in his chair and offered me some advice. I had a choice. I could be an insider or I could
be an outsider. Outsiders can say whatever they want. But people on the inside don't listen to them. Insiders, however, get lots of access and a chance to push their ideas. People
- powerful people - listen to what they have to say. But insiders also understand one unbreakable rule: they don't criticize
other insiders."
Notable quotes:
"... A more probable school of thought is that this game was created as a con and a cover for the status quo capitalist establishment to indulge themselves in their hard money and liquidity fetishes, consequences be damned. ..."
"... The arguments over internal and external consistency of models is just a convenient misdirection from what policy makers are willing to risk and whose interests they are willing to risk policy decisions for ..."
"... Mathematical masturbations are just a smoke screen used to conceal a simple fact that those "economists" are simply banking oligarchy stooges. Hired for the specific purpose to provide a theoretical foundation for revanschism of financial oligarchy after New Deal run into problems. Revanschism that occurred in a form of installing neoliberal ideology in the USA in exactly the same role which Marxism was installed in the USSR. With "iron hand in velvet gloves" type of repressive apparatus to enforce it on each and every university student and thus to ensure the continues, recurrent brainwashing much like with Marxism on the USSR universities. ..."
"... To ensure continuation of power of "nomenklatura" in the first case and banking oligarchy in the second. Connections with reality be damned. Money does not smell. ..."
"... Economic departments fifth column of neoliberal stooges is paid very good money for their service of promoting and sustaining this edifice of neoliberal propaganda. Just look at Greg Mankiw and Rubin's boys. ..."
"... "Larry [Summers] leaned back in his chair and offered me some advice. I had a choice. I could be an insider or I could be an outsider. Outsiders can say whatever they want. But people on the inside don't listen to them. Insiders, however, get lots of access and a chance to push their ideas. People - powerful people - listen to what they have to say. But insiders also understand one unbreakable rule: they don't criticize other insiders." ..."
At the risk of oversimplifying might it not be as simple as stronger leanings towards IS-LM and kind are indicative of a bias
towards full employment and stronger leanings towards DSGE, microfoundations, and kind are indicative of a bias towards low inflation?
IN general I consider over-simplification a fault, if and only if, it is a rigidly adhered to final position. This is to say
that over-simplification is always a good starting point and never a good ending point. If in the end your problem was simple
to begin with, then the simplified answer would not be OVER-simplified anyway. It is just as bad to over-complicate a simple problem
as it is to over-simplify a complex problem. It is easier to build complexity on top of a simple foundation than it is to extract
simplicity from a complex foundation.
A lot of the Chicago School initiative into microfoundations and DSGE may have been motivated by a desire to bind Keynes in
a NAIRU straight-jacket. Even though economic policy making is largely done just one step at a time then that is still one step
too much if it might violate rentier interests.
Darryl FKA Ron -> Barry...
There are two possible (but unlikely) schools of (generously attributed to as) thought for which internal consistency might
take precedence over external consistency. One such school wants to consider what would be best in a perfect world full of perfect
people and then just assume that is best for the real world just to let the chips fall where they may according to the faults
and imperfections of the real world. The second such school is the one whose eyes just glaze over mesmerized by how over their
heads they are and remain affraid to ask any question lest they appear stupid.
A more probable school of thought is that this game was created as a con and a cover for the status quo capitalist establishment
to indulge themselves in their hard money and liquidity fetishes, consequences be damned.
Richard H. Serlin
Consistency sounds so good, Oh, of course we want consistency, who wouldn't?! But consistent in what way? What exactly do you
mean? Consistent with reality, or consistent with people all being superhumans? Which concept is usually more useful, or more
useful for the task at hand?
Essentially, they want models that are consistent with only certain things, and often because this
makes their preferred ideology look far better. They want models, typically, that are consistent with everyone in the world having
perfect expertise in every subject there is, from finance to medicine to engineering, perfect public information, and perfect
self-discipline, and usually on top, frictionless and perfectly complete markets, often perfectly competitive too.
But a big thing to note is that perfectly consistent people means a level of perfection in expertise, public information, self-discipline,
and "rationality", that's extremely at odds with how people actually are. And as a result, this can make the model extremely misleading
if it's interpreted very literally (as so often it is, especially by freshwater economists), or taken as The Truth, as Paul Krugman
puts it.
You get things like the equity premium "puzzle", which involves why people don't invest more in stocks when the risk-adjusted
return appears to usually be so abnormally good, and this "puzzle" can only be answered with "consistency", that people are all
perfectly expert in finance, with perfect information, so they must have some mysterious hidden good reason. It can't be at all
that it's because 65% of people answered incorrectly when asked how many reindeer would remain if Santa had to lay off 25% of
his eight reindeer ( http://richardhserlin.blogspot.com/2013/12/surveys-showing-massive-ignorance-and.html ).
Yes, these perfect optimizer consistency models can give useful insights, and help to see what is best, what we can do better,
and they can, in some cases, be good as approximations. But to say they should be used only, and interpreted literally, is, well,
inconsistent with optimal, rational behavior -- of the economist using them.
Richard H. Serlin -> Richard H. Serlin...
Of course, unless the economist using them is doing so to mislead people into supporting his libertarian/plutocratic ideology.
dilbert dogbert
As an old broken down mech engineer, I wonder why all the pissing and moaning about micro foundations vs aggregation. In strength
of materials equations that aggregate properties work quite well within the boundaries of the questions to be answered. We all
know that at the level of crystals, materials have much complexity. Even within crystals there is deeper complexities down to
the molecular levels. However, the addition of quantum mechanics adds no usable information about what materials to build a bridge
with.
But, when working at the scale of the most advanced computer chips quantum mechanics is required. WTF! I guess in economics
there is no quantum mechanics theories or even reliable aggregation theories.
Poor economists, doomed to argue, forever, over how many micro foundations can dance on the head of a pin.
RGC -> dilbert dogbert...
Endless discussions about how quantum effects aggregate to produce a material suitable for bridge building crowd out discussions
about where and when to build bridges. And if plutocrats fund the endless discussions, we get the prominent economists we have
today.
Darryl FKA Ron -> dilbert dogbert...
"...I guess in economics there is no quantum mechanics theories or even reliable aggregation theories..."
[I guess it depends upon what your acceptable confidence interval on reliability is. Most important difference that controls
all the domain differences between physical science and economics is that underlying physical sciences there is a deterministic
methodology for which probable error is merely a function of the inaccuracy in input metrics WHEREAS economics models are incomplete
probabilistic estimating models with no ability to provide a complete system model in a full range of circumstances.
YOu can design and build a bridge to your load and span requirements with alternative models for various designs with confidence
and highly effective accuracy repeatedly. No ecomomic theory, model, or combination of models and theories was ever intended to
be used as the blueprint for building an economy from the foundation up.
With all the formal trappings of economics the only effective usage is to decide what should be done in a given set of predetermined
circumstance to reach some modest desired effect. Even that modest goal is exposed to all kinds of risks inherent in assumptions,
incomplete information, externalities, and so on that can produce errors of uncertain potential bounds.
Nonetheless, well done economics can greatly reduce the risks encountered in the random walk of economics policy making. So
much so is this true, that the bigger questions in macro-economics policy making is what one is willing to risk and for whom.
The arguments over internal and external consistency of models is just a convenient misdirection from what policy makers
are willing to risk and whose interests they are willing to risk policy decisions for.]
Darryl FKA Ron -> Peter K....
unless you have a model which maps the real world fairly closely like quantum mechanics.
[You set a bar too high. Macro models at best will tell you what to do to move the economy in the direction that you seek to
go. They do not even ocme close to the notion of a theory of everything that you have in physics, even the theory of every little
thing that is provided by quantum mechanics. Physics is an empty metaphor for economics. Step one is to forgo physics envy in
pursuit of understanding suitable applications and domain constraints for economics models.
THe point is to reach a decision and to understand cause and effect directions. All precision is in the past and present. The
future is both imprecise and all that there is that is available to change.
For the most part an ounce of common sense and some simple narrative models are all that are essential for making those policy
decisions in and of themselves. HOWEVER, nation states are not ruled by economist philosopher kings and in the process of concensus
decision making by (little r)republican governments then human language is a very imprecise vehicle for communicating logic and
reason with respect to the management of complex systems. OTOH, mathematics has given us a universal language for communicating
logic and reason that is understood the same by everyone that really understands that language at all. Hence mathematical models
were born for the economists to write down their own thinking in clear precise terms and check their own work first and then share
it with others so equipped to understand the language of mathematics. Krugman has said as much many times and so has any and every
economist worth their salt.]
likbez -> Syaloch...
I agree with Pgl and PeterK. Certain commenters like Darryl seem convinced that the Chicago School (if not all of econ) is driven
by sinister, class-based motives to come up justifications for favoring the power elite over the masses. But based on what I've
read, it seems pretty obvious that the microfoundation guys just got caught up in their fancy math and their desire to produce
more elegant, internally consistent models and lost sight of the fact that their models didn't track reality.
That's completely wrong line of thinking, IMHO.
Mathematical masturbations are just a smoke screen used to conceal a simple fact that those "economists" are simply banking
oligarchy stooges. Hired for the specific purpose to provide a theoretical foundation for revanschism of financial oligarchy after
New Deal run into problems. Revanschism that occurred in a form of installing neoliberal ideology in the USA in exactly the same
role which Marxism was installed in the USSR.
With "iron hand in velvet gloves" type of repressive apparatus to enforce it on each and every university student and thus to
ensure the continues, recurrent brainwashing much like with Marxism on the USSR universities.
To ensure continuation of power of "nomenklatura" in the first case and banking oligarchy in the second. Connections with reality
be damned. Money does not smell.
Economic departments fifth column of neoliberal stooges is paid very good money for their service of promoting and sustaining
this edifice of neoliberal propaganda. Just look at Greg Mankiw and Rubin's boys.
But the key problem with neoliberalism is that the cure is worse then disease. And here mathematical masturbations are very
handy as a smoke screen to hide this simple fact.
likbez -> likbez...
Here is how Rubin's neoliberal boy Larry explained the situation to Elizabeth Warren:
"Larry [Summers] leaned back in his chair and offered me some advice. I had a choice. I could be an insider or I could
be an outsider. Outsiders can say whatever they want. But people on the inside don't listen to them. Insiders, however, get lots of access and a chance to push their ideas. People
- powerful people - listen to what they have to say. But insiders also understand one unbreakable rule: they don't criticize
other insiders."
The demise of the North Sea doesn't necessarily mean the end of Norway's petroleum era -- far from it.
Still, despite significant reserves in the Barents Sea, Norway is about to embark upon a long period of
structural decline as its benchmark fields inch closer to depletion and its reserves taper before our
very eyes.
... ... ...
There's ample evidence to conclude that all the sweet spots of Norway's continental shelf have been
found. The latest shelf licensing round (24) elicited a weak response, with only 11 companies applying
for production licenses. There was plenty to bid for -- 102 blocks were up for grabs (never before did the
Norwegian Petroleum Directorate offer so much, with an overwhelming majority of them in the Barents Sea),
but due to their remoteness from formations deemed to be the most hydrocarbon-rich, bidders were only
half as numerous as they were during the previous licensing round in 2015.
After 2001, Norwegian oil output recorded 12 consecutive years of falling production. The current phase might best be
described as a lull before the (presumably) last long-term production increase in its history, expected to happen in the early
2020s. Much will depend on the two "Johans" Norway will bring online in the early 2020s: Johan Sverdrup (recoverable reserves
worth 2-3 BBbl) and Johan Castberg (0.5 BBbl).
Much has been done to render Johan Castberg profitable at current price levels -- from an initial level of 80 USD/bbl, Statoil
and the other shareholders have brought it to an
alleged 35 USD/bbl
. Against the background of falling oil services costs, this has entailed several cost-cutting measures,
most notably scrapping any sort of semi-submersible vessel variant coupled with pipeline construction from the oilfield to the
mainland (an option preferred by the government, as this would allow to provide smaller fields in the Barents Sea with a sure
transport route) in favor of a FPSO.
A half of all small businesses fail in the first 5 years.
Notable quotes:
"... I also suspect that with all the rhetorical celebration of "small businesses", a lot of people don't really want to have "jobs" but would prefer to be small business owners, with all of the attached narratives of autonomy ("be your own boss") etc. ..."
"... Many take jobs for lack of such opportunity, or because deep down they know they are not leadership material or don't have the stomach to deal with business management issues every day, which is closer to reality than living the dream. But maybe one day, they will open their own shop. ..."
"... Visions about workers, jobs, etc. may not appeal to them as much as imagined, aside from decades of hearing promises of jobs etc. that never materialized for a lot of people. ..."
"... I used to think when "small businesses" is mentioned in e.g. election ads or messaging to convince people to vote yes or no on a proposition, it means "right wing". I'm no longer sure that's universally the case. ..."
"... When I think of "small business" I usually think of marginally competent management (one step ahead of bankruptcy) and brutal exploitation of low paid labor. ..."
"... about 90% of small businesses have 20 employees or less and revenues under $2 million. Even Forbes thinks the SBA's definition that you cite is BS. ..."
"... half of all small businesses fail in the first 5 years. ..."
I also suspect that with all the rhetorical celebration of "small businesses", a lot of people don't really want to have "jobs"
but would prefer to be small business owners, with all of the attached narratives of autonomy ("be your own boss") etc.
Many take jobs for lack of such opportunity, or because deep down they know they are not leadership material or don't have
the stomach to deal with business management issues every day, which is closer to reality than living the dream. But maybe one
day, they will open their own shop. This is basically the same argument as the "temporarily embarrassed millionaire", though
it is not (primarily) about financial riches but personal fulfillment.
Visions about workers, jobs, etc. may not appeal to them as much as imagined, aside from decades of hearing promises of
jobs etc. that never materialized for a lot of people.
I used to think when "small businesses" is mentioned in e.g. election ads or messaging to convince people to vote yes or
no on a proposition, it means "right wing". I'm no longer sure that's universally the case.
When I think of "small business" I usually think of marginally competent management (one step ahead of bankruptcy) and brutal
exploitation of low paid labor.
Never mind, I looked it up myself and about 90% of small businesses have 20 employees or less and revenues under $2 million.
Even Forbes thinks the SBA's definition that you cite is BS.
Here's something about the GOP House and the GOP Senate: they each passed tax bills (supposed to come out in a "conference"
agreement sometime today) that diss the United States' working class taxpayers. White or black, Christian or Jew or other,
citizen by birth or naturalized citizen–workers are treated as an inferior "taker" class and owners are treated as a superior "maker"
class–the same old GOP class warfare that has been evidenced in Republican-driven tax legislation for decades. That shows in
the provisions that have been discussed quite a bit already, even though there is no official distributional analysis and even though
the Treasury Department put out a one-pager claiming to provide an analysis showing huge economic growth would eliminate any deficits
(based on both the tax "reform" legislation and promised cost-cutting "reforms" to Medicare and Social Security):
the significant reduction in impact of the estate tax,
the huge reduction in the statutory corporate tax rate of most benefit to officers/shareholders (it was 35%, it will be 21%
under the conference agreement, apparently, even though the "effective" corporate tax rate ranged from negative to around 24-25%–essentially
more favorable than many of our fellow advanced economies' corporate tax rates);
the territoriality of the corporate tax (generally, zero tax on foreign earnings of U.S. companies);
immediate expensing of company investments (a five year provision that allows companies huge tax benefits for those five years);
the elimination of the corporate alternative minimum tax (AMT), at a cost of about $250 billion in revenues.
the reduction in the top rate for wealthy individuals (from 39.6% to 37%),
the substantial reduction in the State and Local Tax Deduction for workers (thus changing entirely the economics of
paying for a house already purchased, while allowing sole proprietors, partnerships and other "owners" of equity in businesses
the ability to deduct such State and Local Taxes in full);
a larger standard deduction but the elimination of personal exemptions;
a larger child tax credit that only becomes refundable over time (limiting how much it helps the poor) but is available to
wealthy households (starting to phase out at half-a-million of income!);
the only slight reduction in the ability of wealthy individuals to take advantage of the mortgage interest deduction (reducing
the debt limit to $750,000 instead of $1,100,000)
the elimination of the corporate AMT (which cuts taxes for wealthy shareholders/owners/managers) but the retention of the
individual AMT (which primarily affects the upper middle class and not the wealthiest taxpayers under the current rate bracket
system);
the elimination of the
Affordable Care Act mandate and penalty (which reduces the amount of Medicaid and insurance subsidy funds for poor and middle-income
taxpayers, as well as guaranteeing the deconstruction of the health care system for 13 million or more Americans by 2027 and
increasing insurance premiums for upper-middle-class taxpayers); and
the opening of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to rape by fossil fuel oligarchies (a piddling amount of revenue, but sufficient
to buy off the principle-less Sen. Lisa Murkowski from Alaska );
making the corporate tax changes permanent (and effective without any transition period) while making the individual tax cuts
other than benefits for the wealthy like the estate tax changes temporary.
(just to name a few).
When the health care mandate removal is combined with the other provisions, "On net, the poor would actually lose out in all years
once this effect is taken into account." Dylan Matthews,
The Republican tax bill that could actually become law, explained , Vox.com (Dec. 14, 2017). The following
Tax Policy Center graph from the Vox article (using
the Urban-Brookings Microsimulation Model) shows that by 2027 the top 0.1% end up doing much better (average tax cut for the top
0.1 percent is $221,550 a year). The bottom 20% do worse while the middle–the second and third quintiles–have a very insignificant
plus (average tax cut of the third quintile is $490). Within the third or middle quintile, more than 62% of taxpayers that earn between
$54,700 and $93,200 would see their taxes go up, "[b]ut only about 0.1% of the very richest one-thousandth of Americans would see
a tax hike." Id.
Early gains–though small, intended perhaps to benefit the GOP in earlier votes -- don't last because the individual
cuts aren't permanent. A change to chained CPI for indexing brackets amounts to a tax increase on individuals, while the permanent
corporate tax cuts mean rich and very rich do well while middle and upper-middle lose out.
Lyle, December 17, 2017 6:10 pm
Note that ending the mandate just means more folks will wager on their health. All that wished to sign up could have. (and
still can where medicaid was expanded).
And the rest of us will pay their emergency room bills, as well.
Since it is now voluntary
to count the lower amount of subsidies as a cut seems a strange way of counting, but of course figures don't lie but liars do figure.
"... Canada is as neoliberal as almost anywhere else in the Anglo developed world. You can think of us as being just like the USA or UK, but about a decade behind in the adoption of dumb and cruel ideas. In the Anglo neoliberal family, Canada is the slightly retarded little sibling. ..."
"... Ireland allows you to claim citizenship if you have an Irish grandparent (with some caveats). Many US and Canadians use this to work/settle in the EU. A Chicago friend who was working in London and HK got her Irish passport without ever bothering to visit Ireland. ..."
"... Yves, Sweden might take you, if you can take the winters the requirements for self-employed residence permits aren't too harsh. So far they've managed to not overdo it on neoliberalism, although there are forces that sure try to make it happen. ..."
"... I also live near San Miguel de Allende in a small, agricultural Mexican community perched on the side of an extinct volcano. I pretty much avoid the expat scene, shop in the mercados, hang with Mexican friends and am thoroughly enjoying soaking in this wonderful way of life. I made this move at age 70. ..."
"... When I'm in Mexico the feeling is of constantly hitting my head against a glass ceiling and biting my tongue. ..."
"... But for the love of God, stay on the beaten tourist path (SMA-Oaxaca City-Cholula etc.). Don't go into Guerrero except maybe Taxco. I was just in Chilpancingo for a professional event, taking every precaution, and the stories you hear first hand are horrifying. The security situation in Mexico is deteriorating badly. ..."
"... Even states like Puebla that used to be safe are seeing kidnappings and other extreme crime. If you speak Spanish, the issue of security it is utterly unavoidable, it creeps into many conversations and dominates the local news. ..."
"... 'According to Pew Charitable Trusts, only 13 percent of Baby Boomers still have [defined benefit pensions].' ..."
"... This 13 percent remnant overwhelmingly consists of government employees, whose defined benefit pensions are uniformly underfunded (and even understated as to HOW underfunded they are). ..."
"... I had a work colleague from Sweden. She had been a school teacher there and came to the U.S. to sell financial products, make a lot of money and avoid Swedish taxes. I asked her if she were going to become a U.S. citizen. She looked at me like I was crazy, laughed and said, "Hell no, I would never wish to be old in America." ..."
"... From my perch, if any Americans want to make the move, I would say over the next decade before that door closes. The regulations are already tightening up such as making sure that you owe no taxes or the like before you leave. More Americans are now renouncing their citizenship as America still want to tax them even when they have moved away. After this decade, I regret to say, that America will be no country for old people. ..."
"... And speaking of inequality, most countries have far worse inequality than the US and it is savage and painful to watch when your security guard finishes a 12 hour shift and then starts another 12 hour shift across the street. ..."
"... By the way don't get me started on the cost of healthcare. It's cheap until you run into a major complication. I had surgery in Peru for something minor and the total bill was over $5000 USD. Imagine if it were heart surgery. My expat insurance paid it but you can't get that if you're over a certain age. ..."
Canada is as neoliberal as almost anywhere else in the Anglo developed world. You can think of us as being just like the
USA or UK, but about a decade behind in the adoption of dumb and cruel ideas. In the Anglo neoliberal family, Canada is the slightly
retarded little sibling.
The cost of living is high in Canadian cities. In Vancouver and Toronto, the cost of living has soared out of any sort of proportion
to employment incomes. Affordable rental housing is often infested with bedbugs or other vermin (Vancouver alleyways are strewn
with stained mattresses and other abandoned furniture). Beggars are seen everywhere, while the Teslas and Lexuses roll past. Not
a day goes by that I don't see elderly persons climbing in and out of dumpsters. Permanent shantytowns have arisen on the outskirts.
We got almost the same opiates problem as the USA.
The province of Quebec used to be more social-democratic in orientation than other parts of Canada. But even the Quebecois
seem to have caught the mental and spiritual diseases of the globalist bourgeoisie. I recently spent a month in Montreal, and
was aghast to see the staircases of downtown Metro stations rendered almost impassable by the large numbers of homeless men and
women trying to sleep there.
My younger relatives look at me very sceptically, when I tell them that as late as 1990, a beggar was an unusual sight in Vancouver.
Of course, people born since that time would think that what you see today is normal .
We were at a commercial hot springs somewhere in France about 15 years ago, and it cost around $5 to go in, and before entering,
there was a doctor and nurse that checked your blood pressure, etc., for no extra charge. It was so over the top in terms of anything
compared to here, in a delightful way.
In France, doctors make a lot less than in the US, particularly general practitioners. The GP doctors make on the order of
what a senior manager or engineer makes.
There are good reasons for that (among them free education for doctors and a totally different societal attitude towards healthcare,
based on SOLIDARITY – whose outcome is a more reasonable cost and coverage. Yes, they also do use that word a lot in general public
discourse, in many European countries. Have you heard the word SOLIDARITY in the US in public discourse, ever?).
A good summary of that and meaningful comparisons with other nations' healthcare systems is provided in the book 'The Healing
of America: A Global Quest for Better, Cheaper, and Fairer Health Care' by T. R. Reid.
Don't worry, Marcon and Merkel are accelerating the crapification of France and the wider EU. The next generation will get
to experience the joys of economic and health insecurity in abundance.
the main project now is to gut the public pensions. the PIIGS countries have already had to slash theirs, so the plan now is
to bring the rest of Europe to Canadian levels (retirement age at 67 or higher with a minimal state component).
By the way, it is not widely known for example that the retirement age in Russia is 60. And, judging by the tens of thousands
of healthy and active Russian retirees (these are teachers and professional workers, "middle class" people, not oligarchs – those
go to Monaco and Switzerland of course) living on the Black Sea coast of Bulgaria (mild winters, culturally and geographically
close, inexpensive by developed world standards, gateway to the EU), their pensions cannot be that bad.
And no, they don't look like they are about to die at 65.
So, take that, dear future US retirees (myself in that number).
Wikipedia says the retirement age in Russia is 60 for men, and 55 for women !!! My personal family practice physician is a
Russian immigrant and pre-GFC she claimed, "Most Russian men die before 60. (Wikipedia now says 70.91) Next time I see her I may
ask her about Russian retirement, and life expectancy etc. Another topic is the prevailing attitude of Russian immigrants when
they came to America. They really expected to clean up! I'd be interested in what other NC readers think about this.
Certainly
I can imagine the distress of Russian immigrants who through a lot to move to the US only to find by age 60–55 for women–they
might have been better off being back in Russia.
Indeed, the Black Sea coast is overran by Russkies, younger ones as well. The countryside is where the Brits move to to feel
like country squires on the cheap. And Americans are concentrated in Sofia, doing the heavy lifting of pretending to be civilising
the natives while securing staging areas for the future war against Russia. It's all one big happy international family :) Can't
wait to move back there permanently in 30 months.
They should allow Medicare to be used outside the US, especially for low cost countries in the Third World. They are cheaper
and just as good as the US for many medical services – maybe not for transplants but for heart bypasses, dialysis, etc., they
are ok.
correct: medicare cannot be used outside the u.s.
we are retirees living abroad much of the year. our secondary insurance (which we are lucky enough to have from former teaching
job) becomes our primary insurance. we submit bills to them and they pay (reimburse) fairly well.
we use local doctors and clinics at much lower rates than in the u.s.
emergency medical care in europe is nearly always free or all but free.
We've been to Ecuador twice in the last 4 years exploring retirement there – and decided against it. For a combination of reasons.
1. In spite of what gets touted in the retirement media, for the most part Ecuador is a third world country with everything
that entails.
2. The much ballyhood Cuenca is in an Andes plateau at 8,000 ft. elevation. Not a fan, and it's isolated, if you want to get
out of Cuenca there's a lot of nowhere to go. Cuenca has been haggling with airlines to get some service providers since TAME
cancelled its routes, that's been a constant and ongoing problem.
3. I liked Quito, It's at 9,000 ft. I really couldn't take it.
4. The coast is a very narrow strip of land at the bottom of the mountains, and outside of a couple of areas it's a backwater.
Little infrastructure, few services, dirt poor. The north coast of Ecuador (we call it the mosquito zone) shook down in a 7.8
earthquake in 2016 that wrecked everything from Manta to the Colombian border.
5. Ecuador completely overhauled its visa laws in February of this year making it much more difficult to get any kind of permanent
residency permit, and requiring all visa applicants to provide proof of personal health insurance to qualify for a visa.
6. Ecuador isn't cheap. They levy enormous taxes on almost everything that's imported, which is just about everything but food.
Impossible to get packages and mail in or out.
'Studies' have shown that the majority of pensioners who retire there, leave and go back home or somewhere else within 5 years.
American individualism is a recent myth. I remember how my grandmother who grew up in rural Montana a century ago could rattle
off the names of various second cousins, to say nothing of all the family stories. Life then was rugged but it was not individualistic.
Perhaps one can acquire new pals at the age of 70, as as not to be a lonely old man/woman.
Or are you just a Yankee with money?
And hopefully the new country is so subdued by the super power that there is no need to liberate it. For example, Libya, a
few years ago, would not have been a good choice, in this respect.
If you choose traditional medicare instead of a medicare advantage plan , I don't understand how it would narrow your network.
Traditional medicare is universal in the US and accepted by most providers. I've been on traditional medicare for16 years and
haven't had a provider that doesn't accept traditional medicare.
I wonder if that is regional. Where I live(south), I never see a problem with that.
My PCP when I asked him as I approached 65, replied, that of course he accepted medicare, that there was little difference
between it and other insurance, and that folks who did not accept medicare were immoral in his view.
I think out here in flyover it is less common for doctors to not take Medicare patients. My elderly father moved out here 1.5
years ago and has made considerable use of the excellent resources of the UW health system. His secondary private insurance covers
very little since he is out-of-network but Medicare has covered virtually everything and no expert has refused to see him (urology,
throat/swallowing, dementia, macular degeneration, etc.) due to being Medicare insured. I am pretty sure the entire Mayo Clinic
operation takes Medicare patients also.
It may be that independent docs are refusing Medicare patients but there are fewer and fewer of those out here.
A lot of doctors do not accept Medicare. My current MD does not. I think that is even more true of specialists.
And I am not in a network. I have an old-fashioned indemnity plan. I can see any doctor, anywhere in the world. I submitted
claims for 2 years from Australia, and have also submitted claims from the UK and Thailand.
it happens around this southern city . scary stuff, my first world problems may turn into third world problems. trying to imagine
being 70, living in a van, queing up for a chance at a valuable temp gig in an amazon warehouse.
I would have thought so, too. Certainly the media I have read has lead me to believe that many doctors don't accept Medicare.
I wondered what the percentages were so I did a search. Surprising to me. More nuance than one might think in the results -- seems
you can "accept" at finer-grained levels than one might assume in a Federal program. Here's what seems to be a reasonably objective
and recent appraisal: http://www.factcheck.org/2017/03/medicaids-doctor-participation-rates/
Anecdotal reply from the few doctors I have seen: They state they accept Medicare because it pays them quickly and there is
less paperwork than with most insurance companies, which results in less office overhead. Even with the lower payments from Medicare
for many procedures, the doctors do OK when the big picture is examined.
One of my docs accepts no insurance. But he will file the Medicare claim. I pay him and Medicare sends me a check. It's a little
unwieldy but he's a good doc (in my completely unprofessional opinion) so I put up with it. Others don't and go to other docs.
Physicians in private practice often do not accept Medicare or Medicaid do to billing issues. These are usually older doctors
with established practices. Younger physicians often end up working as employees of large chain hospitals to stay solvent, and
they will accept any form of payment.
I now live in Portugal. The quality of life is high, and cost of living quite low (though Lisbon has become pricey in terms
of property).
A few months ago I sustained a cut that wasn't healing well, and decided to visit a private walk-in clinic. It was clean, modern,
and there was virtually no wait. The nurse took care of me, as no doctor was required. She spent about twenty minutes cleaning
and dressing the wound, and gave me some extra waterproof bandages to take home.
The cost? Six Euros. You read that correctly: Six Euros.
To the issue of cost of living, I was in Portugal last week and had a myocardial infarction upon seeing petrol prices at 1.55€/litre.
Good thing is not only are there excellent public hospitals for such MIs, but the extremely relaxed recreational pharmaceuticals
policy makes for good prevention as well.
Where I live a liter is about .48 euro if I have my conversion right. So retirees here do catch some breaks. Also there's no
VAT although we do of course have sales tax. And finally many US retirees fully own their homes whereas in, say, Germany almost
everybody rents. Indeed I'd say that so far the US elderly have it easy compared to the millenials who are the ones really getting
screwed. Just reading an article the other day about the record number of millenials living with their parents or, undoubtedly,
their grandparents.
And finally I've read Nomadland and should be said that many of those older people wandering around the country do so by choice.
RVs are not cheap. A new one can cost as much as a house. Amazon prefers to hire these people for their work ethic and because
they bring their own housing with them which is handy for a temporary workforce. Amazon even tries to sugarcoat the exploitation
by making a kind of club out of it called CamperForce.
Home ownership in Germany is 52% and it is below 45% in Switzerland. It is 65-75% in almost all other rich countries including
the US. It is actually around 85% in Russia and 90% in Cuba although the amenities are not quite the same.
As a Swiss I can say that it does not pay to own your house outright. The way our taxes are structured you are cash ahead to
carry your mortgage in perpetuity. It is a nice gift for our banks.
Many 'Mericans say they own their home, but actually the bank (mortgage) owns the home. They're simply trying to improve their
equity (and freedom to paint it whatever color they please) in the home.
I've owned (completely mortgage free) several homes, and between crazy neighbors, time involved in upkeep, and property tax
the best hope is to sell them to a greater fool. (Price appreciation.) Spending over half of one's income on a home mortgage and
hoping the next generation will buy it when it's time to move on is more risky than many other "investments".
I was in Italy this year, in a remote part where you really needed a car to get around. The diesel prices were shocking, but
the small car efficiency actually balanced out the price. I don't think I spent any more per mile than I did in the US. For reference,
I drive a 4 cylinder Toyota which is not exactly a gas guzzler here.
My mom gave me her checkbook register from mid 1961-62 a few years ago, and for a family of 6, there was a total of $88 paid
to Dr. Evers, our family physician. My coming out party was $190.
The checks were mostly $6 and $7, with one $14 whopper.
I asked my mom if we had health insurance, and she told me that aside from a few that had Kaiser, nobody had health insurance
back in those days.
Health insurance was not as critical in those days. The low prices you quote for day to day purchases could also be found in
the healthcare of the day. Not the inflated prices we have now. Same with education. I recall seeing old tuition receipts from
my university that maxed out at a few hundred dollars per semester in the 1950's.
My dad's brother was a physician, an old-fashioned family doctor whose office was in his home and who made house calls. This
was in the 1940's and 50's. Many of his patients paid 'in kind;' although he lived in the city, people still had large gardens
or lived on outlying small farms, and in August and September especially, my aunt would routinely find boxes of fresh fruits and
veggies on their porch. She joked that she was kept busy canning and preserving for at least three months of the year.
Actually, there are some avenues available for some, depending on ancestry, but work is required.
My father was born in Europe, and, after three years and the help of an inexpensive lawyer, I was able to gain a second citizenship.
That, in turn, allowed me to live in Europe.
I believe that Ireland has fairly liberal rules along these lines, but it is worth checking into it no matter what foreign
country one's parents were born.
Won't even remotely work for me. I'm from old and undistinguished stock. All my grandparents were born in the US and three
of my four grandparents have gene pools that go back to before the Revolution (two English, one bizarrely Hungarian).
If you could speak Hungarian (which would be a feat ), you could apply for Hungarian passport by ancestry (assuming you can
track your Hungarian roots with sufficient documentation). That would open all of EU, and I think you might like Berlin
No, my Hungarian ancestors have supposedly been here over 200 years, plus my mother was terrified of both her parents, in particular
her Hungarian father, who was estranged from the rest of his family, and so she knows nothing about
John Laurits
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