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There are powerful factors that make the US economic position somewhat fragile and while Trump is a very questionable answer to the challenges the USA society faces, unlike Hillary he might be more reasonable in his foreign policy abandoning efforts to expand global neoliberal empire led by the USA.
Efforts which led to impoverishment of lower 80% the USA population with a large part of the US population living in a third world country. This "third world country" includes Wal-Mart and other retail employees, those who have McJobs in food sector, contractors, especially such as Uber "contractors", Amazon packers. This is a real third world country within the USA and probably 50% population living in it.
Add to this the decline of the US infrastructure due to overstretch of imperial building efforts (which reminds British empire troubles).
I see several factors that IMHO make the current situation even more dangerous and unsustainable, Trump or no Trump:
1. Rapid growth of population. The US population doubled in less them 70 years. Currently at 318 million, the USA is the third most populous country on earth. That spells troubles for democracy and ecology, to name just two. That might also catalyze separatists movements with two already present (Alaska and Texas).
2. Plato oil. While conversion of electricity supply from coal to wind and solar was more
or less successful (much less then optimists claim, because it requires building of buffer gas powered
plants and East-West high voltage transmission lines), the scarcity of oil is probably within the lifespan
of boomers. Let's say within the next 20 years. That spells deep trouble to economic growth as we know
it, even with all those machinations and number racket that now is called GDP (gambling now is a part
of GDP). And in worst case might spell troubles to capitalism as social system, to say nothing about
neoliberalism and neoliberal globalization. The latter (as well as dollar hegemony) is under considerable
stress even now. But here "doomers" were wrong so often in the past, that there might be chance that
this is not inevitable.
3. Shale gas production in the USA is unsustainable even more then shale oil production. So the question is not if it declines, but when. The future decline (might be even Seneca Cliff decline) is beyond reasonable doubt.
4. Growth of automation endangers the remaining jobs, even jobs in service sector . Cashiers and waiters are now on the firing line. Wall Mart, Shop Rite, etc, are already using automatic cashiers machines in some stores. Wall-Mart also uses automatic machines in back office eliminating staff in "cash office".
Waiters might be more difficult task but orders and checkouts are computerized in many restaurants. So the function is reduced to bringing food. So much for the last refuge of recent college graduates.
The successes in speech recognition are such that Microsoft now provides on the fly translation in Skype. There are also instances of successful use of computer in medical diagnostics. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Computer-aided_diagnosis
IT will continue to be outsourced as profits are way too big for anything to stop this trend.
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The Last but not Least Technology is dominated by two types of people: those who understand what they do not manage and those who manage what they do not understand ~Archibald Putt. Ph.D
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Last modified: March, 19, 2019