May the source be with you, but remember the KISS principle ;-) Skepticism and critical thinking is not panacea, but can help to understand the world better
Financial skeptic
The more things change in the USA casino capitalism the more they stay the same
Cruise to Frugality Island for stock holding 401K Lemmings
Neoliberal economics (aka casino
capitalism) function from one crash to another. Risk is
pervasively underpriced under neoliberal system, resulting in bubbles small and large which hit the
economy periodically. The problem are not strictly economical or political. They are ideological. Like
a country which adopted a certain religion follows a certain path, The USA behaviour after adoption
of neoliberalism somewhat correlate with the behaviour of alcoholic who decided to booze himself to
death. The difference is that debt is used instead of booze.
Hypertrophied role of financial sector under neoliberalism introduces strong positive feedback look
into the economic system making the whole system unstable. Any attempts to put some sand into the wheels
in the form of increasing transaction costs or jailing some overzealous bankers or hedge fund managers
are blocked by political power of financial oligarchy, which is the actual ruling class under neoliberalism
for ordinary investor (who are dragged into stock market
by his/her 401K) this in for a very bumpy ride. I managed to observe just two two financial crashed
under liberalism (in 2000 and 2008) out of probably four (Savings
and loan crisis was probably the first neoliberal crisis). The next crash is given, taking into
account that hypertrophied role of financial sector did not changes neither after dot-com crisis of
200-2002 not after 2008 crisis (it is unclear when and if it ended; in any case it was long getting
the name of "Great Recession").
Timing of the next crisis is anybody's guess but it might well be closer then we assume. As Mark
Twain aptly observed: "A thing long expected takes the form of the unexpected when at last it comes"
;-):
This morning that meant a stream of thoughts triggered by Paul Krugman’s most
recent op-ed, particularly this:
Most of all, the vast riches being earned — or maybe that should be “earned” —
in our bloated financial industry undermined our sense of reality
and degraded our judgment.
Think of the way almost everyone important missed the warning signs of an impending crisis.
How was that possible? How, for example, could Alan Greenspan have declared, just a few years
ago, that “the financial system as a whole has become more resilient” — thanks to derivatives,
no less? The answer, I believe, is that there’s an innate tendency
on the part of even the elite to idolize men who are making a lot of money, and assume that they
know what they’re doing.
As most 401K investors are brainwashing into being "over bullish", this page is strongly bearish
in "perma-bear" fashion in order to serve as an antidote to "Barrons" style cheerleading. Funny, but
this page is accessed mostly during periods of economic uncertainty. At least this was the case during
the last two financial crisis(2000 and 2008). No so much during good times: the number of visits drops
to below 1K a month.
It was clear that 2017 stock market run was detached from fundamentals. Mostly speculative run. And the current stock market
decline could well happen three months aerler or three month later but it was in the cards. It is difficult to estimate the power of
inertia in such speculative runs. Also layoffs and decline of the standard liming of workers and lower middle class still can
continue to improve the balance sheet until "Yellow Vests" moment stops them.
Jobs created now are mostly "inferior" low paid or temp/contractor jobs and the numbers just mask the cruel reality of the USA
job market.
Which in reality is dismal, especially for young and old workers. several more or less paid specialties disappeared in 2018 due
to automation (cash office worker is one). automatic cashier is supermarkets are also now more visible. So spontaneous cases
of vandalism, killings of coworkers and other form of "action of desperation" (as well as the rate of death from opioids -- which is
yet another form of the same) would not be too surprising in such an atmosphere. Even with the power of the current national
security state. Trump is playing with fire trying to cut on food stamps and implementing some other action in this program of
"national neoliberalism" which is in internal policy is almost undistinguishable from neofascism. He risk facing "Macron
situation" sooner or later.
In any case at some point Minsky moment should arrive for the stock market. I am not sure that the current decline is that start
of such an event. It might be postponed further down the line for a year or two. But it will eventually come. We can
only guess what form it might take, but with the current Apple troubles and valuations of tech sector I think it might take the form
of something similar to dot-com bubble deflation No.2
I do not see Amazon, Google, Facebook and Microsoft and other tech high flyers completely immune to the stock crash of 50%
magnitude or more. For example, Google is overly dependent on advertising revenue which can grow only by strangulating small sites
owners which use it as the advertizing platform (which it successfully implements fro several years now). But at some point owners
might revolt and start dropping it for Microsoft or other platform. Facebook might face a backlash, if people understand that
selling data about them in the part of the business model, not an aberration.
One of the most unexplainable things that happened in 2018 was dramatic fall of oil prices in the Q4. This was quite surprising
(and destructive) after the period of little or no capital investment in the new fields for three years or so. Shale oil
production increases in the USA are only possible if junk bonds can be produced along with it. Junks bonds that will never be paid.
With the current debt load and prices below $50 most of the USA shale oil companies are zombies. Most if not all of thenm are losing
money. Only return of ~$70 oil prices can save them, if anything at all. WSJ touched this topic recently.
So this surprising fall of oil prices (from around $70 to around $43 WTI) looks connected to the speculations in the "paper oil"
market.
Financialization allows for oil price to be completely detached from fundamentals for a year or even two (Saudis need over $80 I
think to balance the budget, I think; this represents "fair price" as they are one of the three largest producers).
But you will never know this unless there are shortages at gas stations. The difference is covered by inflated statistics from
IEA and similar agencies as well as "paper oil" -- future contracts which are settled in dollars.
This is the reality of "casino capitalism" ( aka neoliberalism ) with its rampant and destructive financialization.
One factor is a change in one of the three large producer's policies. This large producer is
also the only producer that consumes more than it produces and therefore the only one of the
three that favors lower prices. I'm referring to USA, of course.
USA shale (and to a much lesser extent GOM) growth kept a lid on prices. Where would prices
have been 2010-19 without USA adding 7 million BOPD?
USA growth doesn't appear to be headed toward adding 1 million BOPD or more per year in the
future. USA companies are all being pressured to pay dividends. To cover dividends, USA
companies need much higher prices. USA companies aren't forecasting growth like past years.
For the first time ever, the USA government is not making oil production growth, either
domestic or foreign, a priority. I am not making a "political" statement here trying to rile up
the left on the board. Just look at oil prices since the USA election on 11/3. Not a
coincidence. Not likely USA will be intervening anytime soon in the ME to protect oil supplies.
At least not in a big way.
I have no idea how high oil prices will go. I wonder what happens politically in USA with $3
gasoline? $4 ? Are high gasoline prices no longer a political liability? They weren't for Obama
in 2012. But USA was drilling like crazy in 2012. Not sure what happens this time if that
occurs, given clear desire of Biden Administration to discourage USA oil production growth.
Another factor is the Western European producers have told the market recently in a very
straightforward manner that their oil production is past peak. The CEO's of both BP and RDS
have stated this. Total is also transitioning away from oil. Equinor also, it changed its name
to remove the word oil.
Next, even though total worldwide demand will still be below a record, demand growth from
2020 to 2021 worldwide will be big, much bigger than from 2009 to 2010 after GFC. What did
prices do from the depths of GFC to 2011? Compare GFC stimulus to COVID stimulus.
Last, how many paper barrels are traded per physical barrel? With the increase in paper
barrels (I would call them more accurately day trader barrels) volatility in the oil market has
grown. The price went negative big time one day last April. It was purely a day trader
phenomenon.
Everyday you can find headlines that point to a huge transition underway in the world energy
scene.
For example today-
-Exclusive: Equinor considers more US asset sales in global strategy revamp, and
-Ford bets $29B on leading the 'electric vehicle revolution'
There is a huge scramble underway to adapt to the conditions these big companies now see
coming to be over this decade.
In the meantime, I think that oil demand growth will be very strong over the next 18-24
months.
And as the price of gas in the USA goes up in this rebound phase, the great difference in
travel cost/mile between plug-in vehicles (like a Ford mustang) and ICE vehicles will become a
widely known fact. Ford (and the other manufacturers) all know that now, even if they were slow
on the uptake.
This world is going to change rapidly this decade in so many ways. REPLYALIMBIQUATED IGNORED02/15/2021 at 11:34
am
I think a general feeling of optimism that there is light at the end of the Covid 19 tunnel
is helping as well. REPLYSURVIVALIST IGNORED02/15/2021 at 12:23
pm
" For the first time ever, the USA government is not making oil production growth, either
domestic or foreign, a priority."
Great observation. I recall when GWB2 went to KSA to 'kiss the ring' and ask for more oil
production. I wonder how it will play out next time. REPLYHICKORY IGNORED02/15/2021 at 12:33
pm
"" For the first time ever, the USA government is not making oil production growth, either
domestic or foreign, a priority."
Of much greater impact- For the first time ever, the major oil companies are not making oil
production growth, either domestic or foreign, a priority. REPLYSHALLOW SAND IGNORED02/15/2021 at 1:11
pm
The Biden administration is under pressure to see oil prices rise. The green agenda of wind,
solar and EV's is only cost competitive with fossil fuels in two ways: 1) green subsidies; or
2) higher oil prices. Until high oil prices threaten the economy, the Biden administration will
enact policies that gladly see oil prices rise. And with the oil price experience of 2009 to
2014 still relatively fresh in people's minds, the Biden administration is not afraid of $60,
$70, or even $90 oil. They are hoping for it. REPLYHICKORY IGNORED02/15/2021 at 2:13
pm
"$60, $70, or even $90 oil. They are hoping for it."
As are the people working in the oil industry. REPLYSTEPHEN HREN IGNORED02/15/2021 at 4:59
pm
As far as anyone on this board is considered, the higher the price of oil the better. Let's
phase out oil production in the US over the next three decades and keep the price high the
entire time so the producers make money and people are incentivized to switch to less polluting
EVs. It'll be like the TRC for the whole country but heading towards a bottleneck. Auction
drilling rights so only the best wells get drilled. Keep restricting drilling in a phased
manner, enact a gradually lower cap on the number of wells that can be drilled until it goes to
zero in twenty years and then maintain these stripper wells until they are empty. REPLYPAULO IGNORED02/15/2021 at 6:33
pm
Can you imagine any US party that would actually dare to promote a higher cost for gasoline?
Personally, I think there should be a big carbon tax and fuel tax surcharge imposed to fix
infrastructure, but whatever.
Confession: I am not anti oil. My son works in the Cdn industry. I just think people drive
more than they should and that energy should be priced higher. Win win. LLOYD IGNORED02/16/2021 at 3:55
pm
So $90 oil is good for:
-Saudi
-Democrats
-Shallow
-Tesla
-Renewables
PAOIL-
I disagree that high oil prices are needed to make green energy competitive, because oil is
already very expensive energy, which is why it is rarely used to generate electricity. Wind and
solar compete against coal, nuclear and gas, not oil.
Oil shines as a way to store energy in a moving vehicle and power internal combustion
engines. As such, it really competes with batteries, not with the rest of the energy market at
all. And batteries still have a tiny impact on oil markets.
So higher oil prices might be useful for the EVs, but not particularly useful for wind and
solar. But in reality, the EV market is suffering from chronic battery shortages as
manufacturers struggle to build factories fast enough to meet 20% or more annual demand growth.
The oil price really isn't an issue, and raising oil prices wouldn't help.
If Biden's goal was to make EVs more competitive, the government has an easy way to raise
oil prices, which is to raise taxes at the pump. This would be more or less neutral to the oil
price from the producer point of view. It would just encourage exports and discourage imports,
improving America's balance of payments. But it hasn't worked in Europe, where taxes are over
60% of the price at the pump. The most effective way to promote EVs is subsidizing the purchase
price of the vehicle. That has been very effective.
Hoping that the American consumer will keep oil demand up internationally no longer makes
sense, as America's relative economic importance has been falling since 1945. I'm not sure what
the previous administration was trying to accomplish by talking down the price. REPLYJEFF IGNORED02/16/2021 at 5:13
am
"But it hasn't worked in Europe, where taxes are over 60% of the price at the pump. "
I have driven a Toyota Corolla on an 4 week US trip.
With an engine for the US market – you can't buy this modell in Europe. It was very
steady going – and thirsty. At least for european thinking, we used 7-8 litres / 100 km
by mostly driving country roads in cruise control at the given speed (didn't wanted to deal
with US police). Slow for my feeling, I'm driving faster in Germany.
And use only round about 6 litres with a car of similar size, which is a bit faster than
this Corolla – with this lazy slow driving I would use below 5 litres with my car (and
get a lot of flashing).
Jeff –
That was a little unclear on my part. I meant high gasoline prices haven't gotten people to
buy, EVs, but direct subsidies seem to work.
It's also worth mentioning that $120 oil didn't really dent consumption much, and certainly
didn't inspire many to buy EVs.
In my opinion liquid fuel is cheap. I mean I think that consumers aren't willing to make
significant changes in behavior even if prices increase significantly. S IGNORED02/17/2021 at 3:05
am
Alimbiquated, as an European in a well-to-do country, the matter of car buying is somewhat
more complicated than just gasoline price. E.g. fully electric car availibily, their price,
distances that need to be travelled (range anxiety in other words) are still important. Hybrid
cars are also rather expensive. Here it seems that these two car groups are selling better and
better, public charging points are increasing etc so we will see what happens. As I have a full
electric car I got relatively cheaply (still a bit of ouch ) I think I will not get a petroleum
or diesel car ever J HOUSMAN IGNORED02/18/2021 at 4:08
pm
"The green agenda of wind, solar and EV's is only cost competitive with fossil fuels in two
way" Three ways, actually. The third is when we finally start to realize the actual cost of
destroying the environment by burning fossil fuels REPLYMATT MUSHALIK IGNORED02/15/2021 at 10:01
pm
Global crude oil may have peaked 2018-19 before Covid
A dozen workers that are members of the Safe union are threatening to down tools at the
Mongstad terminal from midnight on Monday if talks with the industry body aimed at breaking an
impasse over a 2020 wage settlement with Equinor fail.
Other fields that could be impacted include Kvitebjorn, Visund, Byrding, Fram and
Valemon, with gas output exports from the Troll area also in danger of being hit.REPLYMATT MUSHALIK IGNORED02/15/2021 at 8:05
am
An interesting scenario showing what happens when demand outstrips supply due to lack of
investment is playing out right now in Oklahoma and Texas. There has been a lack of investment
in the region last year due to the drop in prices, and in Oklahoma, the slowing of investment
has been happening for a few years. The massive cold snap that descended on the region made
spot prices (not the futures price you can look up on Bloomberg etc) rise from $2 an MMBTU, to
$5, to $9, to $300, to $600, all in the course of a week. It is currently higher. The cold
weather has caused shut ins of wells, and processing plants. You have a situation where demand
is increasing but supply cannot keep up. I know this is a micro problem that will resolve
itself as temperatures increase, in the coming weeks, but this could be an example of what oil
prices might see in the near future. There has been a lack of investment for years in large
projects, if demand rebounds quickly as vaccine roll out continues, we will not be able to turn
back on new production fast enough to keep prices from running higher, resulting in some
temporary ridiculous price spikes. REPLYSHALLOW SAND IGNORED02/15/2021 at 10:31
am
I saw this resulted in a lot of wells that have been shut in for 5-10 years being
reactivated. REPLYGREENBUB IGNORED02/15/2021 at 8:25
pm
Shallow, are you affected by the cold snap or power outages? REPLYSHALLOW SAND IGNORED02/16/2021 at 12:41
am
Yes. We have about 10% frozen off. Our pumpers decided what to drain and shut in, and what
to keep on. They are real pros. You can't find better.
Our people are the key. We owe them bigtime. They have been out there in this stuff keeping
the rest from freezing.
We will be good soon, temps will come up.
Keep in mind, with one exception, our pumpers are 50+ years old.
Are there millennials that are going to keep the strippers going 24/7/365?
No. I work in construction biz. 90% of twenty somethings can't work five minutes without
looking at their phones. They are useless. All my buddies have the same complaint. REPLYOVI IGNORED02/15/2021 at 9:49
pm
An interesting clip from this article:
"This isn't a consensus view yet but it's quickly coming. Two heavyweights in the past week
have stepped up and called out the problem.
The first was Goldman Sach's Jeff Currie, who called the bull market in the early 2000s.
"I want to be long oil and hang on for the ride," Currie said in an interview with S&P
Global Platts on Feb. 5, warning "there is a lot of upside here."
"Is it back to $150/b? I don't know as it is a macro repricing we are talking about and
everything needs to reprice."
The other is JPMorgan and Marko Kolanovic, who said Friday that oil and commodities appear
to be entering a supercycle.
"We believe that the new commodity upswing, and in particular oil up cycle, has started,"
the JPMorgan analysts said in their note. "The tide on yields and inflation is turning."
"We believe that the last supercycle peaked in 2008 (after 12 years of expansion), bottomed
in 2020 (after a 12-year contraction) and that we likely entered an upswing phase of a new
commodity supercycle."
Shale driller bases rig lease costs on well performance
Rigs are typically rented out at a daily rate for a period of a few months, which has meant
less money for oilfield service providers as drilling becomes quicker and more efficient. So
Helmerich & Payne Inc. is touting a new pricing model based on overall well performance,
and almost a third of its U.S. rigs are now being leased on that basis, CEO John Lindsay said
Wednesday on an earnings call.
In the Permian Basin of West Texas and New Mexico, home to the busiest shale patch in North
America, operators are now drilling the same number of wells with 180 rigs as they were with
300 rigs a year ago, according to industry data provider Lium.
Yeah okay. That's all great. But what I was looking at was oil production. It's going down,
not up. With these prices oil production should be increasing, not decling. Why is that? After
all, that's really all that matters.
The standard analysis of the interplay between technology and education, developed by
economists like Lawrence Katz and Claudia Goldin..., and David Autor..., suggests that
improvements in technology -- coupled with a college graduation rate that slowed sharply in
the 1980s -- have been principal drivers of the nation's widening income gap, leaving workers
with less education behind.
But critics like Mr. Mishel point out that this theory has important blind spots. For
instance, why have wages for college graduates stagnated over the last decade, even as
innovation continues at a breathtaking pace? ...
Most notably, the skills-and-tech story leaves aside one of the most perplexing and important
dynamics of the last 30 years: the rise of the 1 percent, a tiny sliver of the population
that last year took in almost a dollar out of every $4 generated by the American economy. ...
Mr. Mishel's preferred explanation of inequality's rise is institutional: a shrinking minimum
wage cut into the earnings of the nation's least-skilled workers while falling trade
barriers, deregulation and the decline of labor unions eroded the income of the middle class.
The rise of the top 1 percent, he believes, is mostly about executive pay and the growing
footprint of finance. ...
My view is that both the technology and institutional forces are at work, and the question
is not which of the two explains growing inequality -- they are not mutually exclusive -- but
rather how much each contributed to the growing disparity.
Actually, That started with the passage of the Great Society program of 1965, under
President Johnson. With Great Society, welfare became official, hip, and institutionalize,
with the worst affects being the break-up of black and inner city families, and a doubling to
tripling of the out-of-wedlock birthrate. The lower 95 percenters would be better off under
the policies of Roosevelt, Truman, Eisenhower and Kennedy.
Read the book "The Truly Disadvantaged" about how the break up of inner city families was
not to do with welfare but with the lack of jobs for working class men.
That doesn't mean by the way that I am against better micro-economic design of the social
security system. A citizen's income (c.f. Friedman's negative income tax) is my preferred
welfare system design.
Thomas Sowell has stated that the black family made more progress during the 20 years
before Great Society, as opposed to the 20 years after Great Society. Great Society was the
first opportunity for mommas to afford to have children, without the benefit of a husband and
father to the children, on the taxpayers' dime. Where a birth of a human baby should be a
blessed event, it's be cheapened to included the Dept. of Social Services. In my state, in
the bigger cities, the out-of-wedlock birthrate pre Great Society was 25%, then by 1975 to
current times, the out-of-wedlock birthrate hovers around 75- 80 percent. Black on black
crime went up, number of black victims went up, and drug use increased. I don't disagree with
the point you are trying to make, but it got much worse at the time of the introduction of
Great Society.
When we say yields equalize across assets prices, this is natural over the whole economy,
including government, given sufficient time to equalize. If rates are low, and price to
earnings high, then you can bet your booty that government yields are low also.
And this will be true of any complete, bounded economic model, it is really basic to the
concept of a model. So ask youself who or what has driven yields lower over the 40 year
period and you can win a banana.
Second Best has it completely backwards! The post-New Deal period saw the strongest
economy and most prosperous middle class in American history!
The New Deal came about because the real takers (the wealthy) were taking too much of the
pie. Same thing is happening today! But unfortunately we don't have an FDR around to stick up
for working men and women. We have the pro-corporate party (Dems) and the ultra-pro-corporate
party (GOP).
Second Best is just pretending to be a reactionary for amusement. Unfortunately some
bloggers roll in here occasionally that make roughly the same comments, but are serious. I
keep telling him to use emoticons :<)
I wouldn't put any of the blame for rising inequality on technology. We've been replacing
workers with machinery for over 200 years!
I think the two principle reasons are low tax rates and low union membership.
Contrary to popular belief, there is very little correlation between tax rates and growth.
But there is a very high correlation between low tax rates and increased income
inequality.
Anecdotal but, when you look at typical office-type work, it's hard to not conclude that
technology (computers/software) has killed a ton of middle-income office jobs.
e.g. The typical law firm 10+ years ago might have had 3-4 support staff (secretaries,
paralegals, filing clerks) for every attorney. Today, it's more typical to have 2-3 attorneys
for every support staff employee. Technology allows this.
I easily believe this for the secretaries and clerical staff, but what happened to the
paralegals? Similar trends can/could be observed in other professional fields, but there too,
while the clerical and admin staff was trimmed (and to an extent management hierarchies but
lately it looks like they have come back), subject matter (of the variety that cannot be
automated) work has not been cut a lot. OTOH IT/internet allowed a lot of "commodity" tasks
to be outsourced and offshored.
Is it possible that the (newer generation?) attorneys had to take on paralegal tasks as
part of their job? That would be in line with other fields where in reality a lot of the "low
level" and clerical work that has been ostensibly automated was pushed onto the professional
staff. For example, in many places you are supposed to arrange your own business travel
(hotel, flights), order office materials, do print/copy work etc. that used to be done by now
"automated" clerical staff up to 10-15 years ago. Also when it comes to subject matter work,
a lot of work formerly done by techs and other support staff (who were often hourly) has been
transferred to the professionals (who are generally salaried and "exempt" from overtime pay),
while it is generally swept under the rug in performance evaluations which are about subject
matter achievements (research pubs, delivered product features etc.). On the flip side there
is now probably more nominally professional staff, some of whom (esp. juniors) are loaded
with more tech/support content - but then a lot of them are hired offshore too.
"Both sides agree that the overall weakness of the job market since the turn of the
millennium is a prime culprit. As Professor Katz noted: "The only moments we've had of
broadly shared prosperity have been in tight labor markets.""
This is a problem of demand management policy. Demand can be managed via fiscal, monetary
and/or trade/currency policies.
It's also a problem of politics as Krugman says in that the powerful center-right has
ignored the recent economic evidence, as have the center-right's academic/media message
machine. The center-right has cried wolf over inflation and government deficits all in the
name of preventing policies that would help the economy and tighten labor markets.
Yes labor policy is very important as well. I would support pro-union policies - which
help politically also - and work-sharing programs during downturns which Germany has and
which Dean Baker recommends.
It's also a problem of a long term decline in federal government consumption and gross
investment, and the willingness of macroeconomists to re-define "full employment" as a
situation in which lots and lots of people are in fact unemployed. I don't think private
enterprise alone will ever be capable of generating full employment and tight labor markets,
demand stimulus or no demand stimulus.
When there is insufficient demand yields drop as capacity is idled. Under conditions of
weak demand there is also a drop in investment as new entrepreneurs and established
businesses know the deck is stacked against them.
The low yields are a natural symptom of the deficient demand. If you're looking for who to
blame, there are several likely suspects.
One is a government indifferent to unemployment that caters almost exclusively to the
super rich and the multi national, stateless corporations. The second is a government
indifferent to unemployment that caters almost exclusively to the super rich and the multi
national, stateless corporations. The third is see one and two.
This is the beginnings of fascism, of course. All we need now is a strong authority figure
and a good war.
Fighting to Stop an Entitlement Before It Takes Hold, and Expands by John Harwood
November 12, 2013
"WASHINGTON -- Underlying fierce Republican efforts to stop President Obama's health care
law and the White House drive to save it is a simple historical reality: Once major
entitlement programs get underway, they quickly become embedded in American life. And then
they grow.
That makes the battle over the Affordable Care Act more consequential than most Washington
political fights. "If it's in place for six months, it will be impossible to repeal it or
change it in ways that significantly reduce the benefits," said Robert D. Reischauer, a
Democrat who used to lead the Congressional Budget Office.
Douglas Holtz-Eakin, another former C.B.O. director, reflects the concern of fellow
Republicans in framing the stakes more dramatically. Either the law's health insurance
exchanges "can't cut it," he explained, or "it's Katie, bar the door -- we have an
explosively growing new program."
Ever since President Franklin D. Roosevelt's New Deal during the Great Depression, the
dominant pattern for major entitlements -- the term for government assistance programs open
to all who qualify and not subject to annual budget constraints -- has been durability and
expansion. That is the record Senator Ted Cruz of Texas refers to in warning Republicans not
to allow Americans to become "hooked on the subsidies" -- an argument Mr. Obama sarcastically
recast as, "We've got to stop it before people like it too much."
Congress enacted Social Security in 1935 to provide benefits to retired workers. In 1939,
benefits were extended to their dependents and survivors. Later the program grew to provide
disability coverage, cover self-employed farmers and raise benefit levels.
President Lyndon B. Johnson's Great Society created Medicare and Medicaid in the 1960s to
provide health coverage for the elderly and the poor. They followed the same pattern.
In 1972, Congress extended Medicare eligibility to those under 65 on disability and with
end-stage renal disease. In 2003, Congress passed President George W. Bush's plan to offer
coverage under Medicare for prescription drugs.
Lawmakers initially linked Medicaid coverage to those receiving welfare benefits, but over
time expanded eligibility to other "poverty-related groups" such as pregnant women. In 1997,
President Bill Clinton signed into law the Children's Health Insurance Program, which now
covers eight million children whose families' incomes are too high to qualify for
Medicaid."
...
The old canard, right out of Doonesbury cartoon sociology.
The real issue is discretionary spending. It is gone mainly because of entitlement
crowding. The thirty small hoover states find higher multipliers in discretionary spending.
It is really a critical political issue, and the thirty hoovers will take the ship down
unless they get their discretionaries.
New York, Florida, California and Texas are united against discretionary spending. Both
parties are having internal battles on the issue.
Listen to yellens statement on discretionary spending, she likes it. But listen to the
House, they sequester it. Whyndid you and i just agree, via our representatives, to cut
discretionary spending? Any clue? What did every red blooded american say about the
entitlements? No, no.!!. What did we do? Cut discretionary spending to save entitlements. If
anyone is capable of any news searching on the topic, i suspect you will find much talk about
discretionary vs entitlement spending. We name that, give it an actual semantic.
Crowding.
Right. There wasno sarcasm, i must suddenly be in nutsville. A very good chunk of
articles, right here, required reading was about cuts to discretionary spending and saving
entitlements. Someone is not doing their homework.
What the complaint was about, in the two posts above, was that the discretionary vs
entitlement comment was not framed in some kind of simple minded 'evil tea party'. As if no
actual thought may occur on the blog unless it passes some orwellian, straight jacket,
nonesense. Seriously, crowding out occurs in the budget all the friggin time and mostly has
little to with some bogus script of plastic political analysis.
Entitlement spending does not fund humbug factories. Or PAC's to make sure the pentagon
has a 'strategic objective' to keep the defense corporations (aka troughers) healthy.
Entitlements have had little 'crowding' effect on discretionary spending.
Roughly, discretionary to entitlements used to be about 35:65 in 1999, today it is not
that different, while the war half of discretionary (19% of outlays in 2012) is nearly 60%
too large.
When you take away war and corporate welfare entitlements should be 6 times discretionary
spending.
What matters is discretionary spending enriches a few a lot, while entitlements take care
of many a little.
Well you have an opinion about entitlements and discretionary spending. You like the
former, not the later. We have a name for people like you, Crowders, you crowd out one form
of spending vs another form.
So quit bitching and play the game. We are conducting a mass experiment, lead by
researcher janet yellen. She is going to test your theory by attempting more discretionary
spending. If she screws it up, you win a banana.
Ok, lets review the roosevelt thing.
In 1928, investors believed we were head for a new productivity frontier based on the
efficiency of the mass market. They predicted 4% non-inflationary growth for the horizon.
What we got in 1948 was exactly that, high growth, low inflation, rising productivity.
Between 1928 and 1948, we got social security, progressives taxes, off the gold standard, two
major down turns, twenty million dead from WW2, and the cold war.
Thats a twenty year wait, mostly the result of bad and good government depending on how
one sorts the events. Ok, you all sort it all out, I am moving on.
The rapid transformation of business processes via the capital formation advantages of
robust, diverse, and highly liquid financial markets made it all possible.
Translation: If tax incentives are set to prefer trading equities (relatively low capital
gains tax rate) over holding equities (relatively low dividends tax rate) then capital will
flow to investments with the fast rather than longest duration returns. Fastest returns for
capital will come from mergers and downsizing (i.e, layoffs), outsourcing (narrow
specialization), offshoring of production (labor wage arbitrage), and technology asset
capital expenditure (automation) will be the preferred uses of capital. With the short term
emphasis then training, retention, maintaining internal competency succession, and
operational process improvements will undesirable expenses. The preferences quickly become
self reinforcing as workforce quality devolves and capital rewards itself more and
more.
Economic is a quantitative science and economists should understand the statistics and
test for interactions. Sometimes, the interactive effects can be greater than major
effects.
"
wages for college graduates stagnated over the last decade, even as innovation continues
at
"
Tell me something! Does all of innovation come from humans? From Hunans? From automation?
From computer hardware? Software? Software with a child process? A child process coded by the
parent process? Do you see what is happening?
We are now approaching the moment of singularity. A moment in history, or an epoch of
history? Tell me something else!
Do all boomer-s leave the work force simultaneously? Or during a poorly defined epoch? The
singularity has already begun but will evolve slowly as the present SE, singularity epoch
unfolds. Computer jockey-s first used the word processing feature of computer to code their
human imagination. Later assemblers re-coded human source code, checked source for semantics
and many other features. Supercomputers now work at unbelievable gigaflops. But if human
brain is merely a biological gigaflopper, eventually all its functions will be replaced by
semiconductor brains. But so what?
RM, Reverse Migration! As mechanized innovation replaces Americans, Yankee-s will need to
migrate to developing countries where the singularity process will be slower and with a phase
shift, behind the American Curve.
"The standard analysis of the interplay between technology and education, developed by
economists like Lawrence Katz and Claudia Goldin..., and David Autor..., suggests that
improvements in technology -- coupled with a college graduation rate that slowed sharply in
the 1980s -- have been principal drivers of the nation's widening income gap, leaving workers
with less education behind...."
-- Eduardo Porter
I do not understand this assertion, since what is remarkable about the United States is
that the portion of men and women 25 to 34 and 55 to 64 with college degrees is just about
the same.
July, 2013
College or university degree attainment by age group, 2011
"The standard analysis of the interplay between technology and education, developed by
economists like Lawrence Katz and Claudia Goldin..., and David Autor..., suggests that
improvements in technology -- coupled with a college graduation rate that slowed sharply in
the 1980s -- have been principal drivers of the nation's widening income gap, leaving workers
with less education behind...."
-- Eduardo Porter
I do not understand this assertion, since what is remarkable about the United States is
that the portion of men and women 25 to 34 and 55 to 64 with college degrees is just about
the same.
What is importance to notice about increasing income concentration is how much of an
increase there has been above the top 1% of families. we find the share of income for the top
.1% of families going from 3.41% to 11.33% between 1980 and 2012 for an astonishing gain.
Corruption of government at all levels produced a class of plutocratic rent holders in
finance and other industries able to buy rents. Citi and Solyndra being outstanding examples
on the D side and ADM and the oil companies on the R side.
Abysmal social and economic conditions in African American urban ghettos. These conditions
contribute much to the poor conditions in the schools that serve that population. The kids
who attend school in these neighborhoods are really up against it. Social arrangements that
sort the educated upper middle class into "their"towns by residential pricing and development
patterns tend to limit highly advantageous educational opportunities to their children. In
the big cities the upper middle class either uses influence to obtain places for their
children in desirable public schools or use private schools.
Pressure on wages and employment opportunities for people with low educational attainment
due to the development of more efficient production technologies and low wage competition in
the global trading system.
Forgive my skepticism that a few billion more federal dollars of stimulus will correct
these problems.
Gov. Jerry Brown, whose pronouncements of California's economic recovery have been
criticized by Republicans who point out the state's high poverty rate, said in a radio
interview Wednesday that poverty and the large number of people looking for work are "really
the flip side of California's incredible attractiveness and prosperity."
The Democratic governor's remarks aired the same day the U.S. Census Bureau reported that
23.8 percent of Californians live in poverty under an alternative calculation that includes
the cost of living.
Asked on National Public Radio's "All Things Considered" about two negative indicators --
the state's nation-high poverty rate and the large number of Californians who are unemployed
or marginally employed and looking for work -- Brown said, "Well, that's true, because
California is a magnet.
"People come here from all over in the world, close by from Mexico and Central America and
farther out from Asia and the Middle East. So, California beckons, and people come. And then,
of course, a lot of people who arrive are not that skilled, and they take lower paying jobs.
And that reflects itself in the economic distribution."
----------------
Hmmm. So my claim that the bankruptcy of America is caused by a negative growth black hole in
Sacramento was just admitted as true by the Guv of California. Where is my banana?
Enemies of the
Poor, by Paul Krugman, Commentary, NY Times : Suddenly it's O.K., even mandatory, for
politicians with national ambitions to talk about helping the poor. This is easy for
Democrats, who can go back to being the party of F.D.R. and L.B.J. It's much more difficult
for Republicans, who are having a hard time shaking their reputation for reverse
Robin-Hoodism, for being the party that takes from the poor and gives to the rich.
And the reason that reputation is so hard to shake is that it's justified. It's not much of
an exaggeration to say that right now Republicans are doing all they can to hurt the poor,
and they would have inflicted vast additional harm if they had won the 2012 election.
Moreover, G.O.P. harshness toward the less fortunate isn't just a matter of spite...; it's
deeply rooted in the party's ideology...
Let's start with the recent Republican track record.
The most important current policy development in America is the rollout of the Affordable
Care Act, a k a Obamacare. Most Republican-controlled states are, however, refusing to
implement a key part of the act, the expansion of Medicaid, thereby
denying health coverage to almost five million low-income Americans. And the amazing
thing is that ... the aid through would cost almost nothing; nearly all the costs ... would
be paid by Washington.
Meanwhile, those Republican-controlled states are slashing unemployment benefits,
education financing and more. As I said, it's not much of an exaggeration to say that the
G.O.P. is hurting the poor as much as it can.
What would Republicans have done if they had won the White House in 2012? Much more of the
same. Bear in mind that every
budget the G.O.P. has offered since it took over the House in 2010 involves savage cuts
in Medicaid, food stamps and other antipoverty programs. ...
The point is that a party committed to small government and low taxes on the rich is, more or
less necessarily, a party committed to hurting, not helping, the poor. ...
Republicans weren't always like this. In fact, all of our major antipoverty programs --
Medicaid, food stamps, the earned-income tax credit -- used to have bipartisan support. And
maybe someday moderation will return to the G.O.P.
For now, however, Republicans are in a deep sense enemies of America's poor. And that will
remain true no matter how hard the likes of Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio try to convince us
otherwise.
"We're Broke" is the mantra of the GOP. Yes, the nation with the highest GDP in absolute
terms and a very high per capita level of income is "broke". You see this nonsense from
Republican leaders at the beginning of a film called "We're Not Broke" which is devoted to
the GOP push to have even less taxes on their base - the ultrarich.
US can afford to spend 4 times the part of GDP that Japan and German spend on warmaking.
And a similar amount on crony capital.
US can afford new ships that will not be equipped, star wars missiles that can hit
nothing, and a $1500B fighter program which is failing its tests many of which cannot be
performed because the thing is unreliable.
Republicans are out of touch. The MinWage is so far below Living Wage that the taxpayers
have to subsidize MinWage workers so they can have enough to eat. This is wrong. The system
and the employers are exploiting their labor.
Medicaid and Obamacare are a subsidy to the poor workers who can't afford the costs of
health care and don't have it provided by employers. A workforce that is not healthy is bad
for business: more missed workdays, lower productivity, higher turnover, etc. The single
minded focus on cutting social spending is completely wrong.
The question that is not asked: "What services do people need to be functional in our
modern economy? What mix of employer benefits, government benefits and wage contribution are
required to deliver the services?" For many people, wages are too low to pay for the minimum
basic goods and services. How do we make up the difference? Or do we have people do without
and erode the health and potential economic output? Republicans have a short sighted focus on
cutting spending and investment in the short run and are not considering the long run.
I don't have the source, but I believe our net worth, nationally, is just north of $74
trillion. And we added more than $1.3 trillion to that amount the past 12 months. This is the
figure that deals in assets we know about. Given the loopholes in our tax code that allow the
super rich to essentially hide much of their income, here and overseas, that net worth figure
is certainly below the real number.
So the statement 'we're broke' borders on the ridiculous. Our cash flow statement is less
impressive, but certainly far above adequate. Even here, this is a choice. We could easily
return to balance (although that's historically been a very bad idea) just by fixing our tax
code so it become more progressive. Today's tax code over taxes the middle class in order to
fund tax breaks for the super rich.
Yep. The progressiveness of the tax code stops in its track at about the Top 2%. Right
about the spot where hiding income becomes easy and makes economic sense.
Someday we will figure out how much income never hits tax returns.
My wife and I had over $30,000 of such income last year. Guaranteed the vast majority of the
Top 10% had similar amounts.
However, I really was not talking about W2 income, but rather things like Romney's $20
million IRA. Or hedge fund managers keeping earnings offshore to avoid any taxes (even the
reduced scam they receive) and living by borrowing against their offshore holdings at
ludicrously low interest rates.
Maybe it was collateral damage since they live in the same neighborhoods? Probably though
it was being fought as a limited war and then there was mission creep.
An all out war on poverty would have transformed the economic battlefield in ways that
very few actually wanted.
The other day someone -- I don't remember who or where -- asked an interesting question:
when did it become so common to disparage anyone who hasn't made it big, hasn't gotten rich,
as a "loser"? Well, that's actually a question we can answer, using Google Ngrams, which
track the frequency with which words or phrases are used in books:
[Graph]
Sure enough, the term "losers" has become much more common since the 1960s. And I think
this word usage reflects something real -- a growing contempt for the little people.
This contempt surely isn't limited to Republican politicians. Still, it's striking how
unable they are to show any empathy for people who are just doing their best to make a modest
living. The most famous example, of course, is Mitt Romney, who didn't just disparage 47
percent of the nation; he urged everyone to borrow money from their parents and start a
business. I still think the most revealing example to date was Eric Cantor, who marked Labor
Day by tweeting:
"Today, we celebrate those who have taken a risk, worked hard, built a business and earned
their own success."
But Marco Rubio's latest speech deserves at least honorable mention, for the airy way he
dismissed the idea of raising the minimum wage: "Raising the minimum wage may poll well, but
having a job that pays $10 an hour is not the American dream."
In a sense, he's right: if the American dream means getting rich, then $10 an hour isn't
living that dream. But most people aren't and won't get rich. Raising the minimum wage would
mean higher incomes for around 27 million people; in many cases the gains would amount to
thousands of dollars a year, which is really a lot in low-income families. So what are all
these people, chopped liver? Well, yes, at least in the eyes of the GOP -- or maybe make that
chopped losers.
OK, I know what the answer will be: conservative policies will lead to economic growth,
and that will raise all boats, the way it did in the days of Saint Ronald. Except, you know,
it didn't. Here's the real wage of nonsupervisory workers:
[Real wage of production and nonsupervisory workers * ]
Even if you give Reagan credit for the 1982-9 business cycle expansion, which you
shouldn't, there's no way to claim that his policies led to higher wages for ordinary
workers.
So what is the GOP agenda to help people who aren't going to build businesses and get
rich? There isn't one -- partly because they really can't reconcile any real agenda with
their overall ideology, but also because, deep in their hearts, they consider ordinary people
trying hard to get by a bunch of losers.
Entitlement expansion. See Detroit and Scranton. Coming soon to Chicago.
[ The term "entitlement" is used when a writer wishes to hide the fact the what is being
talked about is Social Security or Medicare or a pension program that a worker has
contributed to for years and years.
As for the supporting of pension funds, all that has to be understood is how terrific
stock and bond markets returns have been these last 30 and more years. Any pension fund
manager who simply bought a mix of stock and bond market indexes would have done splendidly
for workers and there would be no possible problem now. ]
The problem has not typically been fund returns. It has been underfunding of the programs
by employers, on the assumption that magic market alpha will make up the difference (well,
that's the happy spin on it, the truth is most of the funders didn't much care if the
difference was made up or not so long as they got theirs.)
The focus on pension fund investing strategies is an important one, but kept distinct from
funding levels and political battles it's almost meaningless.
This needs to be explained, keeping here to employer contributions by government
employers.
As to the mention of auto companies and pension contributions, there you have a problem in
which employers can estimate a pension fund investment return and contribute according to the
estimate so that a higher estimate will mean lower levels of contributions from employers for
a time. Nonetheless, ordinary investment returns over long periods of time should have left
no pension problem for workers.
Once executives realized the raises they could gain by taking deferred comp. in stock, or
even in guaranteed return special accounts (Jack Welch at GE-14% annual), corporations
couldn't afford much of anything else. Today CEOs make 290 times the average pay of their
employees compensation, so in order to cover those outsized gains and still report good
profits, companies need to trim budgets anywhere and everywhere. Stable, defined benefit
plans, paid for in addition to wages, got tossed and replaced by contribution plans funded by
employees themselves.
For more than 35 years in America it's been a time to strip corporate assets and pick the
pockets of employees and shareholders in order to pay executives their gargantuan
compensation packages.
Thanks to our rigged tax code, ripping off the middle class has become a full time project
of the super rich and their paid help in Congress and academia.
Same thing happened in the public as in the private sector funds. Look at Illinois or New
Jersey or Detroit. Economic miracles or budget crises lead to underfunding, rolling the dice
on investments, and appetites for silver bullet alternative investments that help explain the
massive shift to PE and HF despite their fee structures (and can lead to alternatives
managers the profits they took off the funds to help subvert the DB system). The push to
alpha helps create instability and predation in the markets, goes the theory. But in any
case, underfunding by the public sector leads to blame-shifting onto "those workers making
bad investments" and leads to pernicious politics around retirement security.
Unfortunately the employers (including and perhaps worst public employers) used the
upturns in the market as opportunities to reduce what they paid into the funds (as a way to
fund tax cuts and get re-elected). Then after severe downturns in the market rather than
increase the funding for pensions they argue to take away earned pensions from the workers
(or leave the mess to be fixed by federal government).
Nice set of explanations, which leads me to think in the case of public workers in unions
there should be a yearly accounting by the union of employer pension contributions along with
an allowing for quick contract redress should employer contributions fall short for a given
length of time.
DeDude is not entirely correct. In the following example, the problem was powerful
predators, fraud, and corruption, as there was plenty of money, and plenty of foresight.
Where was Union oversight in this fiasco? Or better yet, fiscal accountability on the part
of the Regents for wrongful termination, theft, breach of fiduciary duty? I don't see much
hope, because social memory is short, human nature is flawed, and dynastic wealth in the
hands of sociopaths seeks to defend its economic position until the population rises up in
revolt. Wash, rinse, repeat.
In Illinois, public employee union leaders were probably paid off to keep silent about
pension underfunding. A couple of union leaders benefited from special legislation that
awarded them a nice pension for one day of substitute teaching. The special pension was in a
well funded plan, not the state teachers' plan. The legislation doesn't spell out the quid
pro quo, but experienced observers connect dots like these. The legislature takes care of
public union officials who take care of them.
Tax cuts for the wealthy, see the entire country. The problem is not excessive spending,
but inadequate revenues. The latter as a consequence of unnecessary and destructive tax cuts
for the rich. We already had the lowest effective tax rate on the wealthy in the developed
world before that.
"...The most important current policy development in America is the rollout of the
Affordable Care Act, a k a Obamacare. Most Republican-controlled states are, however,
refusing to implement a key part of the act, the expansion of Medicaid, thereby denying
health coverage to almost five million low-income Americans..."
[That is sad on two levels. First it is sad that "The most important current policy
development in America is the rollout of the Affordable Care Act" instead of robust policies
for creating job and wage growth. Second then of course it is sad "Most Republican-controlled
states are.. refusing to implement ... the expansion of Medicaid... denying health coverage
to almost five million low-income Americans."
And by sad I mean a sad sorry state of affairs that should have a big effect on the
mid-term elections if we get off our duffs and take this to the voting booths.]
One day someone will point out that the value of a municipal bond or a treasury bond is an
"entitlement", just like the value of a pension, SS or Medicare is an "entitlement".
The coupon clipping class needs constant feeding. And the super rich coupon clippers need
a deep pool of poor people to maintain their comfort. So simple, really.
That has been pointed out many times in the book, This Time is Different where we see
defaults on both entitlements. In fact, one of the biggest topics of the post crash era has
been when the usa would default in its bond entitlements.
Not too accurate. Bonds and pensions are contracts and sort of can be thought of as
entitlements since your benefits can be enforced in court. You are entitled to whatever your
counterparty agreed to (so long as you did your part and your counterparty is solvent). SS
and Medicare are not contracts. Treasury could have twice the funds needed to pay for SS
forever and Congress could decide tomorrow to cut benefits 80%. Same with Medicare. The two
programs on your list that people are probably most likely to think of as entitlements are
probably the least like entitlements. Your counterparty can change the rules on you
tomorrow.
"...The answer, I'm sorry to say, is almost surely no.
First of all, they're deeply committed to the view that efforts to aid the poor are
actually perpetuating poverty, by reducing incentives to work..."
"...But our patchwork, uncoordinated system of antipoverty programs does have the effect of
penalizing efforts by lower-income households to improve their position: the more they earn,
the fewer benefits they can collect. In effect, these households face very high marginal tax
rates. A large fraction, in some cases 80 cents or more, of each additional dollar they earn
is clawed back by the government..."
"...we could reduce the rate at which benefits phase out..."
[Then Krugman slips away from reality to embrace center aisle politics.}
"...Will this ever change? Well, Republicans weren't always like this. In fact, all of our
major antipoverty programs -- Medicaid, food stamps, the earned-income tax credit -- used to
have bipartisan support. And maybe someday moderation will return to the G.O.P..."
{Yeah those were the good old days leading up to financialization for M&A
anticompetitive consolidation of labor market arbitrage, globalization of wages backed by the
abitrage of the exorbitant privilege of US dollar foreign reserves against rising trade
deficits, stagnant wages from both consolidation and globalization, and a rising share of
capital devouted to speculation on equities and derivatives (e.g, commodity futures bets ARE
derivative contracts). Three cheers for center aisle politics. ]
"40 million refugees with no place on this earth to call their home
One for every aimless graduate with nothing else to show for it but loans
And those of us who make a mark using someone else's blood
Our western stain won't wash away, won't vanish in the flood
It sets deeper with each hurricane and tidal wave and war:
We want everything we see and once it's gone we just want more."
Young men without jobs living in the nation with the world's most powerful millitary
establishment will not make the world a better place to live for anyone. Might not even make
it a place to live.
"Republicans weren't always like this. In fact, all of our major antipoverty programs --
Medicaid, food stamps, the earned-income tax credit -- used to have bipartisan support."
I agree and disagree to a point. While the Republican party used to be more moderate, as a
whole, in the past, there was always a conservative wing in the GOP that opposed these
programs.
For example, in 1961, Reagan gave his famous speech on Medicare - declaring that it would
be the end of America as we know it. One day we would be telling stories to our grandchildren
how America used to be the home to free men.
There has always been in element in the GOP to attack safety nets to the point of
hysterical and absurd arguments. Over the years, the conservative wing has grew and become
more vocal.
One of the main differences between liberals and conservatives, is that liberals see our
weak labor markets, poverty, eroding mobility, and increased economic inequality as a market
failure. Conservatives view it as a moral failure.
It seems to me that the somewhat controversial programs of Obamacare and the Federal
Reserve's policies of forward guidance and QE have helped the poor. If Republicans had
successfully blocked them, things would be worse. It's difficult to defend these programs
against critics on the left and right because of the inherent difficulty in defending public
policies given the evidence. It isn't as clear cut as one would like.
Likewise there are the Republicans' austerity policies like the sequester which Obama went
along with.
Maybe I wasn't clear. I think Obamacare and the Fed have helped. I believe fiscal
austerity has hurt. A number of smart people agree with these assessments.
Meaning that reduced income taxation means lower overall government revenues, which means
reduced means to aid the poor by, for instance, adequate HealthCare or the subsidized housing
or paying for postsecondary education that will give them the means to obtain well-paying
jobs.
This sad fact is even more difficult to swallow given that DoD-expenditures have doubled
in the 40 year period ending in 2012. See info-graphic here: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/files/2013/01/defensechart.jpg
. Do we really need all that spending to provide a defense of the nation now that the Cold
War (extant in the 1960s) is over?
The plutocrats erected a statue to Ronnie for having reversed the good that FDR had
wrought by increasing taxation upon them to levels of around 65%, that crept up inevitably to
around 90%.
And, of course, the rich are still benefiting from the beneficial taxation (that peaks out
at 30% in their level of income).
Besides, if the generally recognized Gini Coefficient depicts Income Disparity across all
levels of income, then the US is shown to be the developed country with the worst Income
Fairness of any on earth. (See info-graphic here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gini_since_WWII.svg
)
MY POINT?
Which means, according to the World Top Incomes Database developed by the Paris School of
Economics? the following: 10% of American households garner about 52% of ALL HOUSEHOLD INCOME
whilst the rest of us 90Percenters scramble after the remaining 48%.
No, the history says that reducing taxes on the rich allows you to borrow and spend,
laying the cost on the middle class. Note, Clinton's tax hike came with budget cuts. Our 2013
tax hike, though meager, results in sequestering.
The problem here is dumbass economists too stupid to come up with any theory of government
that explains supply and demand for government services. So dumbass economists resort to name
calling, blaming their own failure of analysis on the other side. Political scientists are
much worse, all they do is name calling.
{No, the history says that reducing taxes on the rich allows you to borrow and spend,
laying the cost on the middle class.}
Can't imagine where you've concocted this notion from my reply. I posited the premise of
increasing taxes upon our upper-class financial nobility who have reduced 15% of our people
to poverty and serfdom.
{Note, Clinton's tax hike came with budget cuts. Our 2013 tax hike, though meager, results
in sequestering.}
Historical fact of no consequence whatsoever.
The point about raising taxes on the rich is not just about reducing their far to
easily-gained Net Worth. It is to teach that class a lesson about return-on-investment. For
the moment, a level of taxation at only 30% allows them to accumulate vast Net Worth, which
is simply reinvested in interest-bearing accounts for the most part.
Increasing taxation on interest-bearing accounts would induce them to place their savings
in more economy-friendly investments that create jobs. The revenues would also help reduce
deficits and improve government financing of society-friendly policies like a Universal
Public HealthCare Option and Tertiary Education for those who cannot afford it.
These are both common policy rudiments of any modern society in this day and age. Except
the US, of course ...
Moreover, the key point about taxation is this: Whilst an economy should reward
risk-taking, there is no need whatsoever for the pot of Gold at the end of the rainbow to be
unlimited and growing by leaps and bounds because it is too lowly taxed.
Especially not when 15% of fellow Americans are incarcerated below the Poverty Threshold.
That economic fact is unacceptable. And it did not occur because "people are either too
stupid or too lazy".
It occurred because of an inept policy as regards both educational level and our inability
to prevent unskilled work from dislocation abroad.
The Republicans never did care about the poor and are not about to start. The question
that bothers me is when the Democrats will resume working on behalf of the poor.
{The question that bothers me is when the Democrats will resume working on behalf of the
poor.}
Musing about whether that will or will not happen in a blog will certainly not assist in
bringing it about.
Only hard work militating for such an outcome will obtain the necessary results. Which can
only happen if more progressives are voted into the HofR. And it will take a good ten years
of well-considered legislation to right all the wrong that has occurred since the last War on
Poverty in the 1960s.
TORONTO (Reuters) - Hedge funds are turning bullish on oil once again, betting the pandemic
and investors' environmental focus has severely damaged companies' ability to ramp up
production.
Such limitations on supply would push prices to multi-year highs and keep them there for two
years or more, several hedge funds said.
The view is a reversal for hedge funds, which shorted the oil sector in the lead-up to
global shutdowns, landing energy focused hedge funds gains of 26.8% in 2020, according to data
from eVestment. By virtue of their fast-moving strategies, hedge funds are quick to spot new
trends.
... Tawil predicted prices of $70 to $80 a barrel for Brent by the end of 2021 and is
investing long independent oil and gas producers.
... ... ...
Global crude and condensate production was down 8% in December from February 2020, prior to
the pandemic's spread accelerating, according to Rystad Energy.
North America's output was down 9.5% and Europe's production declined just 1% over the same
time period.
U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and declining oilfields in Mexico have kept oil output from
Latin America sluggish.
Jamjen831
wrote:
peachpuff wrote: Barcode scanners and flashlight apps... who installs these? Phones come
with these features already baked in.
I assume some of it is just old stuff people just re-download without thinking. Android
hasn't always had a built in flashlight app (and am I crazy in that the early ones required
root?). And I'm pretty sure that's the same with QR readers. I hadn't realized that Google Lens
was a QR scanner until fairly recently.
Count me in that boat. I just checked my phone and sure enough, Barcode Scanner was there.
I'm guessing it's from 3-4 phones ago and just came along for the ride as Play autoloaded my
apps on the new phones because I haven't used it in ages and ages. daggar Ars
Tribunus Militum
REPLY FEB 8, 2021 2:57 PM
POPULAR
Jamjen831
wrote:
peachpuff wrote: Barcode scanners and flashlight apps... who installs these? Phones come
with these features already baked in.
I assume some of it is just old stuff people just re-download without thinking. Android
hasn't always had a built in flashlight app (and am I crazy in that the early ones required
root?). And I'm pretty sure that's the same with QR readers. I hadn't realized that Google Lens
was a QR scanner until fairly recently.
It's more likely that it's stuff that gets re-downloaded without user interaction. When you
set up a new Android, the phone will often re-download all the apps from the old phone. Unless
you're going through to curate those apps, your 2021 new phone might be getting something
that's gone through a succession of auto-downloads since the mid 2010's. everythingallatonce
Smack-Fu Master, in training
REPLY FEB 8, 2021 2:57 PM
POPULAR
peachpuff
wrote: Barcode scanners and flashlight apps... who installs these? Phones come with these
features already baked in.
I can't really speak for the barcode scanner, but given that a lot of Android phones are
incapable of being updated there is a decent chance a lot of people with much older phones
actually have to install a flashlight app.
Google really needs to do something regarding the malware problem. I'm not going to pretend
to know the answer, but for a company that made $15.23 billion in earnings last quarter and
owns Project Zero you'd think they'd be able to protect a platform they have complete control
over. Jamjen831 Ars
Scholae Palatinae et Subscriptor REPLY FEB 8, 2021 3:02
PM
Dr.Bananas wrote:
peachpuff wrote: Barcode scanners and flashlight apps... who installs these? Phones come
with these features already baked in.
Not all phones. I haven't had an Android phone with a stock barcode scanner ever. Samsung
Galaxy Ace, Galaxy Nexus, Moto G, Nexus 5X, Nokia 3 and my current Sony XZ2 Compact all came
without one. It should be part of the default camera app, but sadly that's not always the
case.
As mentioned above, Google Lens is the defacto QR Scanner (it's part of the camera app). Do
those phones have Lens? I've been on Nexus\Pixel for a long time so not too sure how Google has
pushed that. Xavin Ars
Legatus Legionis et Subscriptor REPLY FEB 8, 2021 3:03
PM
POPULAR
marsilies
wrote: So I use an app called "Barcode Scanner" that's not the malware app. However, the recent
reviews blast it for adware, which I haven't noticed. I think having the exact same name has
caused some people to post negative reviews on the wrong app: https://play.google.com/store/apps/deta
... nt.android
That's correct, it's clean, people are just confused by the same names. The one with the
malware was always a sad copy of the ZXing Team one you linked.
As mentioned above, Google Lens is the defacto QR Scanner (it's part of the camera app). Do
those phones have Lens? I've been on Nexus\Pixel for a long time so not too sure how Google has
pushed that.
You need an internet connection for Lens to scan barcodes. Batmanuel Ars
Tribunus Militum
REPLY FEB 8, 2021 3:12 PM Ancan wrote: I've got a Galaxy S8+ and if there's a built in
barcode scanner I must admit I haven't found out in the years I've had it.
And how many users know they can use an app called "Lens" to scan barcodes?
Does Lens give you technical info about the type of a barcode (aka the Symbology)? Granted,
most people don't have a need to know or care, but I have a job doing work with retail POS
equipment, including hand and flatbed scanners. For my job, it's SUPER helpful sometimes to
have a barcode scanner app that can tell me what type of barcode is being scanned - because
sometimes scanners will scan all the barcodes, *except* this one type of barcode, and then I
gotta find out what kind of barcode it is, so that I can enable that symbology for the scanner
in question (or provide instructions to my customers on how they enable it for their POS).
Or, I can scan the barcode to get the underlying text in the barcode, to compare with our
app's logs, to make sure it's scanning correctly (e.g. not getting truncated or anything like
that).
That's why I have ZXing Team barcode scanner on my phone and recommend it to co-workers.
I assume some of it is just old stuff people just re-download without thinking. Android
hasn't always had a built in flashlight app (and am I crazy in that the early ones required
root?). And I'm pretty sure that's the same with QR readers. I hadn't realized that Google
Lens was a QR scanner until fairly recently.
It isn't just old people, as you admitted yourself practically everyone doesn't
understand all the things their apps can do, especially when that changes over time. A big
part of that problem is the appalling fact that most apps, even the most widely used and
professionally developed, have basically no documentation, and no way of finding out what
their features actually are.
Developers have this fantasy in their heads that they don't document the programs
because it's really hard to keep the documentation in-sync with a changing app, but the
real reason is just a pervasive problem in development culture caused by the race to get
things onto the market, and the convenient lie that developers tell themselves that their
apps are "self documenting", as if everyone has the time or desire to play "app scientist"
and experiment with the app endlessly to find out all its hidden, unobvious features.
@dmccarty: Yeah, the "update or not" decision is tricky for apps. What I do, is turn off
update only for apps that I have no desire for updates too and which shouldn't be doing any
internet activity or only activity to a defined, trusted spot. Any other kind of app,
especially ones that might be subjected to varying network input from undefined sources,
gets updates. Up +21 ( +22 / -1 ) Down 3906 posts | registered 9/15/2009
MikeSafari
Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
REPLY FEB 8, 2021 3:17 PM peachpuff wrote: Barcode scanners and flashlight apps... who
installs these? Phones come with these features already baked in.
I unfortunately didn't have a choice. I bought a Nokia 6.1 a couple of years ago and
installed the official Google Camera app, which has a built-in barcode/QR code reader, but
when Nokia pushed the Android 10 update, it broke the camera app completely. And Nokia's
default camera app does *not* read barcodes or QR codes for some reason. So to read them, I
had to install a third-party app.
Not super thrilled anyway, but thankfully it was not this one.
As mentioned above, Google Lens is the defacto QR Scanner (it's part of the camera app). Do
those phones have Lens? I've been on Nexus\Pixel for a long time so not too sure how Google has
pushed that.
Lens looks like it was initially exclusive to the Pixel 2, and slowly expanded until it became
its own Android app in June 2018: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Lens
So all the phones listed peachpuff came without it, and you'd probably have to have an
Android phone released in the last 2 1/2 years to even have it pre-installed.
Then, as others have noted, one would have to know that Lens can scan barcodes, and if you
have had Android phones for a while, the initial setup and migration may install their old
barcode scanner app anyway.
"... If you're married and your spouse is covered by a workplace-based retirement plan but you're not, you can deduct your full IRA contribution as long as your joint AGI doesn't top $196,000 for 2020. You can take a partial tax deduction if your combined income is between $196,000 and $206,000. ..."
"... Spouses with little or no earned income for 2020 can also make an IRA contribution of up to $6,000 ($7,000 if 50 or older) as long as their spouse has sufficient earned income to cover both contributions. The contribution is tax-deductible as long as your household income doesn't exceed the limits for married couples filing jointly. ..."
There's still time to make a 2020 IRA contribution and lower your tax bill.
by:
Sandra
Block
January 13, 2021
As you get ready to tackle your 2020 tax return, make sure you haven't overlooked one of the best ways to cut your tax bill
and secure your future -- funding a traditional IRA. (There is no upfront tax break for funding a Roth IRA.)
You can actually make an IRA contribution for the 2020 tax year up until the time you file your tax return, which is due April
15, 2021. But why wait? If you have some extra income – say, from a
stimulus
check
– go ahead and deposit it into an IRA account now before you forget. You'll also give the money a little more time
to grow, which you'll appreciate when you retire.
And what about those tax savings? Well, depending on your income, you may be able to deduct your IRA contribution on your 2020
return. To contribute to a traditional IRA, you or your spouse must have earned income from a job. But, otherwise,
you
may be able to deduct contributions
to an IRA even if you or your spouse are covered by another retirement plan at
work. Plus, starting last year, seniors age 70½ and older with earned income can contribute to a traditional IRA, too.
Here's some more good news: The IRA deduction is an "above the line" adjustment to income, meaning you don't have to itemize
your deductions to claim it. It will reduce your adjusted gross income (AGI) dollar-for-dollar, lowering your tax bill. And
your lower AGI could make you eligible for other tax breaks, which are tied to income limits.
Who Qualifies
If you're single and don't participate in a retirement plan at work, you can make a tax-deductible IRA contribution for 2020
of up to $6,000 ($7,000 if you're 50 or older) regardless of your income. If you're married and your spouse is covered by a
workplace-based retirement plan but you're not, you can deduct your full IRA contribution as long as your joint AGI doesn't
top $196,000 for 2020. You can take a partial tax deduction if your combined income is between $196,000 and $206,000.
But even if you do participate in a retirement plan at work, you can still deduct up to the maximum $6,000 IRA contribution
($7,000 if you're 50 or older) if you're single and your income is $65,000 or less ($104,000 if married filing jointly). And
you can deduct some of your IRA contribution if you're single and your income is between $65,000 and $75,000, or if you're
married and your income is between $104,000 and $124,000.
Spouses with little or no earned income for 2020 can also make an IRA contribution of up to $6,000 ($7,000 if 50 or older) as
long as their spouse has sufficient earned income to cover both contributions. The contribution is tax-deductible as long as
your household income doesn't exceed the limits for married couples filing jointly.
Double Tax Break
Some low- and moderate-income taxpayers get an extra break for contributing to an IRA or other retirement account.
In addition to the usual IRA deduction, you may qualify for a Retirement Savers tax credit of up to $1,000 for contributions
to an IRA or other retirement tax plan. (A tax credit, which reduces your tax bill dollar-for-dollar, is more valuable than a
deduction, which merely reduces the amount of income that is taxed.)
The actual amount of the credit depends on your income. It ranges from 10% to 50% of the first $2,000 contributed to an IRA or
other retirement account. To be eligible, your 2020 income can't exceed $32,500 if you're single; $48,750 if you're the head
of a household with dependents; or $65,000 if you're married filing jointly. The lower your income, the higher the credit. But
you can't claim the Retirement Savers credit if you're under 18, a student, or can be claimed as a dependent on someone else's
tax return.
Skip advert
Advertisement
Last week, a large number of small-time investors drove up the price of GameStop's (GME)
stock a
historic 1,784 percent . But this was no mere spike in some obscure stock. The stock's
price spiked in part as a result of efforts by "an army of smaller investors who have been
rallying on Reddit and elsewhere online to support GameStop's stock and beat back the
professionals." These professionals were hedge fund managers who had shorted GameStop's stock.
In other words, hedge funders were betting billions that GameStop's stock would go down. But
the price went up instead, meaning hedge funds like Melvin Capital (and Citron Research) took
"a significant loss," possibly totaling
$70 billion.
There surely were plenty of insiders on both sides of this deal. Given the complexity of
various schemes employed by seasoned investors, it seems it is very unlikely that this is just
a simple matter of little Davids taking on Wall Street Goliaths.
But it also looks like that's not all that was going on. Had this only been just another
scheme by some Wall Street insiders against some other Wall Street insiders the story would
probably have ended there.
But that's not what happened. Rather, it appears that, for many of the smaller investors who
were involved, much of this "short squeeze" was conducted for the purposes of throwing a monkey
wrench in the plans of Wall Street hedge funds which exist within the rarified world of
billionaires and their friends.
Pro–Wall Street Fearmongering
The reactions to the event from media pundits and other commentators were telling in that
there was clearly fear and outrage over the fact that business as usual on Wall Street wasn't
being enforced. Predictably, much of the reaction to the Reddit rebellion was to label it a
"fiasco," " insanity
," and something sure to leave a "
trail of destruction ." The important thing was to use words designed to make it all look
like the threat to hedge funds represents some sort of grave threat to the overall economy. Jim
Lebenthal at CNBC, for example,
declared the "short-squeeze fiasco is a threat to the proper functioning of financial
markets."
The fearmongering went beyond even the usual places we hear about financial news. On The
View , for example, Meghan McCain delivered the sort of status quo
–defending bromides we've come to expect from her. She insisted the GameStop affair could
spiral into an economy-killing disaster because
If the stock ends up plunging because of this, because of GameStop and Wall Street loses
billions, at a certain point, it will impact stocks like Apple and Disney and stocks that a
lot of average Americans do invest in, and if that happens, average Americans will end up
losing even more money.
Her comment doesn't rally make any sense, and she doesn't seem to have even a rudimentary
understanding of what happened. But her comment delivered the important point: namely, that
anything that causes volatility in the market could be a disaster for every American household.
Translation: and we should all be very, very afraid if something isn't done to keep these
Reddit people --
whom she compared to the Capitol "insurrectionists" -- under control.
Of course, in a functioning and relatively unhampered market, unusual, unexpected things
happen all the time. Entrepreneurial actors do things the incumbent firms and "experts" hadn't
counted on. This leads to "instability" and big swings in prices. This is actual capitalism,
and it doesn't mean the marketplace isn't functioning properly. In fact, it probably means the
marketplace is dynamic and responsive to consumers and other market participants.
But that's not something Wall Street insiders or their pals in Washington like in the modern
era. Although Wall Streeters love to portray themselves as capitalist captains of industry, the
fact is they have very little interest in real, competitive capitalism.
Rather, we live in the era of "too big to fail" (TBTF), when market freedom means nothing
and preserving the portfolios of powerful Wall Street institutions is what really
matters.
Decades of "Too Big to Fail"
It's based on the idea that Wall Street is just too important to the whole economy, and
Washington must intervene to make sure rich guys on Wall Street stay rich. David Stockman
explains this philosophy:
[It is] the notion that the "threat of systemic risk" and a cascading contagion of losses
form the failure of any big Wall Street institution would be so calamitous that it warranted
an exemption from free market discipline.
This goes back at least to the 1994 Mexican bailout -- which was really a bailout of
investors, not of Mexico -- which solidified the process of normalizing huge transfers of
wealth from taxpayers and dollar holders to the Wall Street elite. By then, the "Greenspan put"
was already in place, with the central bank forever poised to embrace more easy money in
pursuit of propping up stock prices. Then came the bailouts of 2008 and the covd-19 avalanche
of easy money -- all of which lopsidedly benefited Wall Street over the rest of the
economy.
This "exemption from free market discipline" is what Wall Street is all about these days.
The financial sector has become accustomed to enjoying bailouts, easy money, and the resulting
financialization which puts ever greater amounts of the US economy into the hands of Wall
Street money managers. The sector is now built on corporate welfare, not "free markets." No
matter what happens, Wall Street expects the deck to be stacked in its favor.
This is why "volatility" has become a bad word, and "stability" is now the name of the game.
It's why Lebenthal thinks anything out of the ordinary is a threat to the "proper functioning
of financial markets." If some free market innovation and inventiveness actually takes place in
some small corner of the marketplace, well, then we're all expected to get very upset.
That's the way Wall Street likes it. ay_arrow 1
Kayman 8 hours ago
The marketing slogan "Too Big Too Fail" conveniently presumed Wall Street was more
important than the Real Economy. A fatal presumption.
Wall Street is a Parasite, backstopped by the Fed, who, in turn, are backstopped by the
Nation. A crumbling nation, where the Fed strangles lending/savings intermediation, and saves
the blood suckers by bleeding the dying core of America.
wmbz 8 hours ago
"The sector is now built on corporate welfare, not "free markets."
This is NOT a new thing. Corporate welfare has been in play for a long, long time. I am
amazed how long it has taken otherwise "smart" people to grasp this fact.
The only difference is, it is out in the glaring sunlight for all to see. TPTB are damn
proud of it!
junction 7 hours ago (Edited)
Except for the involvement of WallStreetBets in temporarily blocking the hedge fund bear
raid on GameStop using "naked" shorts, it is still business as usual on Wall Street. No one
at the SEC does anything but collect a salary, issue press releases and go to lunch as the
Mafia crime families. . . oops, hedge funds run "bust out" operations on businesses. The
lapdog financial press cheered on the hedge funds as they demolished American businesses. The
same gutter journalists who are not yet linking micro-manager Bezos giving up total control
of Amazon right after his cloud service illegally de-platformed Parler for violation of
bogus. made-up community standards. But then, bigger things are afoot. Bolshevik president
Biden just approved deploying B-1 bomber to Norway for the first time. Nuclear bomb carrying
B-1 bombers. Anything to distract people from how rotten things are.
Cognitive rationalist 7 hours ago
Banking financial sector: private profits for me, public losses for thee
gladitsover 8 hours ago remove link
"..the table is tilted folks. The game is rigged.."
George Carlin
Lokiban 8 hours ago
I think it was all about showing to those unawares how corrupt and rigged Wall street
truly is and they have gotten the message out bigtime.
The only question to be asked is who became the proverbial bagholder when average people saw
their 'Bitcoin-Tulipmania' chance to get out with amazing profits and with that breaking the
promise to continue pumping gme till it hits $1500.
One has always to be carefull if these kind of actions are true populism going against the
controllers or is it controllers playing their hideous games again for a reason, like the
great reset.
Greed has never been a good advisor in these times, easy sheoplemoney. It works all the
time..
COMMENT: Message: Re Reddit "WallStreetBets"
Hi Marty,
Thanks for this blog post but I think they are not trying to make money out of short
squeezing GME really, they are trying to make a point. If you follow some of the posts you
see many stories about how badly people and their families were hurt in 2008 when not a
single banker went to prison. Stories of Fathers losing jobs and houses and descending into
alcoholism in front of their children who now are part of WallStreetBets, others who had to
live off of beans and rice or what Mama could grow in the garden and went hungry etc.
So they are not buying GME to see it rise, though that is fine, they are spending money
"they can afford to lose" to punish the hedge funds that have along with bankers hurt the
little guy repeatedly. These same people IMO have bought off our politicians, removed
regulations like Glass Steagal etc all to reap profits to the top while crushing everyone
else.
Listen in June 2008 I got laid off from Palm, in July I broke my arm ( badly ), in August
some tenants left so I tried to put that property up for sale but in September Lehman fell
and the real estate agent told me the market was OFF that I could not sell and needed to rent
it with no one renting for 5 more months. At the same time in September I had a 100K home
equity line I took out just for emergencies and since I was having one I wanted to use it
– but then Wells Fargo pulled the whole thing.
So there I was Marty, sitting on the couch with a cast from fingers to shoulder watching
the world meltdown on a tiny TV set while on lots of pain killers
I was forced to use my small 401K, and ended up using the whole thing through 9 months of
disability, two surgeries and a job search that did not yield a job until the fall of
2011.
So IMO these arrogant SOB cheating hedge fund guys should pound sand on GME for once because
the casino is rigged, heads they win, tails they win, and the taxpayers lose their jobs,
homes, and pay for their bailouts.
I say give it to 'em.
Off my soapbox
REPLY: I fully understand that. I have fought against these people my whole life. I was
more interested in learning HOW the economy functioned where they were only interested in
guaranteed trades. I guess I was the Leonardo da Vinci of finance. Instead of digging up
bodies to figure out how the anatomy functioned, I searched history and developed a computer
model to try to ascertain what made the world economy tick.
A professor from Princeton where Einstein taught said to me that I reminded him of
Einstein. I was surprised, for I did not see myself as comparable to Einstein in any way. He
then explained that what he meant was my curiosity which moved me to try to figure out what
made it all function. I came to understand what he meant. If you are not CURIOUS and seek out
knowledge, then you will NEVER discover anything new! I was not dealing with the physics of
the world, but the finance. People are attracted by this blog and Socrates for that same
reason. They have that spark of curiosity and seek to also understand what makes it all tick!
We need to teach students to be curious. That is the key to all progress we desperately need
to survive this never-ending battle of authoritarianism v independence and freedom.
I have stated many times that I had discovered the 8.6-year frequency in my research I
conducted at Princeton, University in the Firestone Library. Those were fond memories for it
was an amazing resource back then as was the Royal British Newspaper Library, which I
gathered my FOREX database by sifting through the largest newspaper collection in the
world.
This was the difference between me and the "club" where I tried to understand the movement
of the ages that caused the rise and fall of civilization and therein the economy/markets,
and the "club" which seeks to manipulate everything by sheer force armed with bribes. They
own the Southern District of New York courts, the Second Circuit, and the Department of
Justice along with the SEC and CFTC. Goldman Sachs has even stacked the SEC and CFTC with
their former people. Nobody was prosecuted despite the fact that they were involved in the
looting of capital in Malaysia and Greece. And people have the audacity to claim there was
absolutely no election fraud? There is nothing we can trust that goes on in government
anymore and it will only get far worse as we head into 2032.
I am well aware of the sentiment behind this Reddit trend. My concern is simple. Don't put
it past the "club" to be in there making this seem like a sure bet and then set everyone up
for the big crash. Be careful here going into Feb/March 2021.
Last week, a large number of small-time investors drove up the price of GameStop's (GME)
stock a
historic 1,784 percent . But this was no mere spike in some obscure stock. The stock's
price spiked in part as a result of efforts by "an army of smaller investors who have been
rallying on Reddit and elsewhere online to support GameStop's stock and beat back the
professionals." These professionals were hedge fund managers who had shorted GameStop's stock.
In other words, hedge funders were betting billions that GameStop's stock would go down. But
the price went up instead, meaning hedge funds like Melvin Capital (and Citron Research) took
"a significant loss," possibly totaling
$70 billion.
There surely were plenty of insiders on both sides of this deal. Given the complexity of
various schemes employed by seasoned investors, it seems it is very unlikely that this is just
a simple matter of little Davids taking on Wall Street Goliaths.
But it also looks like that's not all that was going on. Had this only been just another
scheme by some Wall Street insiders against some other Wall Street insiders the story would
probably have ended there.
But that's not what happened. Rather, it appears that, for many of the smaller investors who
were involved, much of this "short squeeze" was conducted for the purposes of throwing a monkey
wrench in the plans of Wall Street hedge funds which exist within the rarified world of
billionaires and their friends.
Pro–Wall Street Fearmongering
The reactions to the event from media pundits and other commentators were telling in that
there was clearly fear and outrage over the fact that business as usual on Wall Street wasn't
being enforced. Predictably, much of the reaction to the Reddit rebellion was to label it a
"fiasco," " insanity
," and something sure to leave a "
trail of destruction ." The important thing was to use words designed to make it all look
like the threat to hedge funds represents some sort of grave threat to the overall economy. Jim
Lebenthal at CNBC, for example,
declared the "short-squeeze fiasco is a threat to the proper functioning of financial
markets."
The fearmongering went beyond even the usual places we hear about financial news. On The
View , for example, Meghan McCain delivered the sort of status quo
–defending bromides we've come to expect from her. She insisted the GameStop affair could
spiral into an economy-killing disaster because
If the stock ends up plunging because of this, because of GameStop and Wall Street loses
billions, at a certain point, it will impact stocks like Apple and Disney and stocks that a
lot of average Americans do invest in, and if that happens, average Americans will end up
losing even more money.
Her comment doesn't rally make any sense, and she doesn't seem to have even a rudimentary
understanding of what happened. But her comment delivered the important point: namely, that
anything that causes volatility in the market could be a disaster for every American household.
Translation: and we should all be very, very afraid if something isn't done to keep these
Reddit people --
whom she compared to the Capitol "insurrectionists" -- under control.
Of course, in a functioning and relatively unhampered market, unusual, unexpected things
happen all the time. Entrepreneurial actors do things the incumbent firms and "experts" hadn't
counted on. This leads to "instability" and big swings in prices. This is actual capitalism,
and it doesn't mean the marketplace isn't functioning properly. In fact, it probably means the
marketplace is dynamic and responsive to consumers and other market participants.
But that's not something Wall Street insiders or their pals in Washington like in the modern
era. Although Wall Streeters love to portray themselves as capitalist captains of industry, the
fact is they have very little interest in real, competitive capitalism.
Rather, we live in the era of "too big to fail" (TBTF), when market freedom means nothing
and preserving the portfolios of powerful Wall Street institutions is what really
matters.
Decades of "Too Big to Fail"
It's based on the idea that Wall Street is just too important to the whole economy, and
Washington must intervene to make sure rich guys on Wall Street stay rich. David Stockman
explains this philosophy:
[It is] the notion that the "threat of systemic risk" and a cascading contagion of losses
form the failure of any big Wall Street institution would be so calamitous that it warranted
an exemption from free market discipline.
This goes back at least to the 1994 Mexican bailout -- which was really a bailout of
investors, not of Mexico -- which solidified the process of normalizing huge transfers of
wealth from taxpayers and dollar holders to the Wall Street elite. By then, the "Greenspan put"
was already in place, with the central bank forever poised to embrace more easy money in
pursuit of propping up stock prices. Then came the bailouts of 2008 and the covd-19 avalanche
of easy money -- all of which lopsidedly benefited Wall Street over the rest of the
economy.
This "exemption from free market discipline" is what Wall Street is all about these days.
The financial sector has become accustomed to enjoying bailouts, easy money, and the resulting
financialization which puts ever greater amounts of the US economy into the hands of Wall
Street money managers. The sector is now built on corporate welfare, not "free markets." No
matter what happens, Wall Street expects the deck to be stacked in its favor.
This is why "volatility" has become a bad word, and "stability" is now the name of the game.
It's why Lebenthal thinks anything out of the ordinary is a threat to the "proper functioning
of financial markets." If some free market innovation and inventiveness actually takes place in
some small corner of the marketplace, well, then we're all expected to get very upset.
That's the way Wall Street likes it. ay_arrow 1
Kayman 8 hours ago
The marketing slogan "Too Big Too Fail" conveniently presumed Wall Street was more
important than the Real Economy. A fatal presumption.
Wall Street is a Parasite, backstopped by the Fed, who, in turn, are backstopped by the
Nation. A crumbling nation, where the Fed strangles lending/savings intermediation, and saves
the blood suckers by bleeding the dying core of America.
wmbz 8 hours ago
"The sector is now built on corporate welfare, not "free markets."
This is NOT a new thing. Corporate welfare has been in play for a long, long time. I am
amazed how long it has taken otherwise "smart" people to grasp this fact.
The only difference is, it is out in the glaring sunlight for all to see. TPTB are damn
proud of it!
junction 7 hours ago (Edited)
Except for the involvement of WallStreetBets in temporarily blocking the hedge fund bear
raid on GameStop using "naked" shorts, it is still business as usual on Wall Street. No one
at the SEC does anything but collect a salary, issue press releases and go to lunch as the
Mafia crime families. . . oops, hedge funds run "bust out" operations on businesses. The
lapdog financial press cheered on the hedge funds as they demolished American businesses. The
same gutter journalists who are not yet linking micro-manager Bezos giving up total control
of Amazon right after his cloud service illegally de-platformed Parler for violation of
bogus. made-up community standards. But then, bigger things are afoot. Bolshevik president
Biden just approved deploying B-1 bomber to Norway for the first time. Nuclear bomb carrying
B-1 bombers. Anything to distract people from how rotten things are.
Cognitive rationalist 7 hours ago
Banking financial sector: private profits for me, public losses for thee
gladitsover 8 hours ago remove link
"..the table is tilted folks. The game is rigged.."
George Carlin
Lokiban 8 hours ago
I think it was all about showing to those unawares how corrupt and rigged Wall street
truly is and they have gotten the message out bigtime.
The only question to be asked is who became the proverbial bagholder when average people saw
their 'Bitcoin-Tulipmania' chance to get out with amazing profits and with that breaking the
promise to continue pumping gme till it hits $1500.
One has always to be carefull if these kind of actions are true populism going against the
controllers or is it controllers playing their hideous games again for a reason, like the
great reset.
Greed has never been a good advisor in these times, easy sheoplemoney. It works all the
time..
After the Trump Justice Department
sued Yale following the results of a 2-year Civil Rights investigation which found
"long-standing and ongoing" race-based discrimination, the Biden DOJ just dismissed the case
without explanation .
... ... ...
The Trump DOJ had argued that the Ivy League university had violated federal civil rights
law for "at least 50 years," by favoring Black and Hispanic students over Whites and Asians,
according to
The Hill .
The legal battle represented one of the Trump administration's moves to challenge
affirmative action programs aimed at increasing diversity on campus, which some conservatives
consider unfair and illegal.
Yale, which staunchly defended its admission practices, praised the DOJ's decision to drop
the case in a statement, saying it was "gratified" by the decision. -
The Hill
"Our admissions process has allowed Yale College to assemble an unparalleled student body,
which is distinguished by its academic excellence and diversity," argued the university. "Yale
has steadfastly maintained that its process complies fully with Supreme Court precedent, and we
are confident that the Justice Department will agree."
The Trump administration notably instituted several measures to prevent universities from
considering race as a factor during admissions, even joining a similar lawsuit against Harvard
University.
There is a massive threat to our capital markets, the free market in general, and fair
dealings overall. And no, it's not China. It's a homegrown threat that everyone has been afraid
to talk about.
Until now.
That fear has now turned into rage.
Hordes of new retail investors are banding together to take on Wall Street. They are not
willing to sit back and watch naked short sellers, funded by big banks, manipulate stocks, harm
companies, and fleece shareholders.
The battle that launched this week over GameStop between retail investors and Wall
Street-backed naked short sellers is the beginning of a war that could change everything.
It's a global problem, but it poses the greatest threat to Canadian capital markets, where
naked short selling -- the process of selling shares you don't own, thereby creating
counterfeit or 'phantom' shares -- survives and remains under the regulatory radar because
Broker-Dealers do not have to report failing trades until they exceed 10 days.
This is an egregious act against capital markets, and it's caused billions of dollars in
damage.
Make no mistake about the enormity of this threat: Both foreign and domestic schemers have
attacked Canada in an effort to bring down the stock prices of its publicly listed
companies.
In Canada alone, hundreds of billions of dollars have been vaporized from pension funds and
regular, everyday Canadians because of this, according to Texas-based lawyer James W.
Christian. Christian and his firm Christian Smith & Jewell LLP are heavy hitters in
litigation related to stock manipulation and have prosecuted over 20 cases involving naked
short selling and spoofing in the last 20 years.
"Hundreds of billions have been stolen from everyday Canadians and Americans and pension
funds alike, and this has jeopardized the integrity of Canada's capital markets and the
integral process of capital creation for entrepreneurs and job creation for the economy,"
Christian told Oilprice.com.
The Dangerous Naked Short-Selling MO
In order to [legally] sell a stock short, traders must first locate and secure a borrow
against the shares they intend to sell. A broker who enters such a trade must have assurance
that his client will make settlement.
While "long" sales mean the seller owns the stock, short sales can be either
"covered" or "naked" . A covered short means that the short seller has
already "borrowed" or has located or arranged to borrow the shares when the short sale is made.
Whereas, a naked short means the short seller is selling shares it doesn't own
and has made no arrangements to buy. The seller cannot cover or "settle" in this instance,
which means they are selling "ghost" or "phantom" shares that simply do not exist without their
action.
When you have the ability to sell an unlimited number of non-existent phantom shares in a
publicly-traded company, you then have the power to destroy and manipulate the share price at
your own will.
And big banks and financial institutions are turning a blind eye to some of the accounts
that routinely participate in these illegal transactions because of the large fees they collect
from them. These institutions are actively facilitating the destruction of shareholder value in
return for short term windfalls in the form of trading fees. They are a major part of the
problem and are complicit in aiding these accounts to create counterfeit shares.
The funds behind this are hyper sophisticated and know all the rules and tricks needed to
exploit the regulators to buy themselves time to cover their short positions. According to
multiple accounts from traders, lawyers, and businesses who have become victims of the worst of
the worst in this game, short-sellers sometimes manage to stay naked for months on end, in
clear violation of even the most relaxed securities laws.
The short-sellers and funds who participate in this manipulation almost always finance
undisclosed "short reports" which they research & prepare in advance, before paying
well-known short-selling groups to publish and market their reports (often without any form of
disclosure) to broad audiences in order to further push the stock down artificially. There's no
doubt that these reports are intended to create maximum fear amongst retail investors and to
push them to sell their shares as quickly as possible.
That is market manipulation. Plain and simple.
Their MO is to short weak, vulnerable companies by putting out negative reports that drive
down their share price as much as possible. This ensures that the shorted company in question
no longer has the ability to obtain financing, putting them at the mercy of the same funds that
were just shorting them. After cratering the shorted company's share price, the funds then
start offering these companies financing usually through convertibles with a warrant attachment
as a hedge (or potential future cover) against their short; and the companies take the offers
because they have no choice left. Rinse and Repeat.
In addition to the foregoing madness, brokers are often complicit in these sorts of crimes
through their booking of client shares as "long" when they are in fact "short". This is where
the practice moves from a regulatory gray area to conduct worthy of prison time.
Naked short selling was officially labeled illegal in the U.S. and Europe after the
2008/2009 financial crisis.
Making it illegal didn't stop it from happening, however, because some of the more creative
traders have discovered convenient gaps between paper and electronic trading systems, and they
have taken advantage of those gaps to short stocks.
Still, it gets even more sinister.
According to Christian, "global working groups" coordinate their attacks on specifically
targeted companies in a "Mafia-like" strategy.
Journalists are paid off, along with social media influencers and third-party research
houses that are funded by what amounts to a conspiracy. Together, they collaborate to spread
lies and negative narratives to destroy a stock.
At its most illegal, there is an insider-trading element that should enrage regulators. The
MO is to infiltrate a company through disgruntled insiders or lawyers close to the company.
These sources are used to obtain insider information that is then leaked to damage the
company.
Often, these illegal transactions involve paying off "informants", journalists, influencers,
and "researchers" are difficult to trace because they are made from offshore accounts that are
shut down once the deed is done.
Likewise, the "shorts" disguised as longs can be difficult to trace when the perpetrators
have direct market access to trading systems. These trades are usually undetected until the
trades fail or miss settlement. At that point, the account will move the position to another
broker-dealer and start the process all over again.
The collusion widens when brokers and financial institutions become complicit in
purposefully mislabeling "shorts" as "longs", sweeping the illegal transactions under the rug
and off of regulatory radar.
"Spoofing" and "layering" have also become pervasive techniques to avoid regulator
attention. Spoofing, as the name suggests, involves short sellers creating fake selling
pressure on their targeted stocks to drive prices lower. They accomplish this by submitting
fake offerings in "layers" at different prices to create a mirage.
Finally, these bad actors manage to skirt the settlement system, which is supposed to
"clear" on what is called a T+2 basis . That
means that any failed trades must be bought or dealt with within 3 days. In other words, if you
buy on Monday (your "T" or transaction day), it has to be settled by Wednesday.
Unfortunately, Canadian regulators have a hard time keeping up with this system, and failed
trades are often left outstanding for much longer periods than T+2. These failing trades are
constantly being traded to reset the settlement clock and move the failing trade to the back of
the line. The failures of a centralized system
According to Christian, it can be T+12 days before a failed trade is even brought to the
attention of the IIROC (the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada)
Prime Brokers and Banks are Complicit
This is one of Wall Street's biggest profit center and fines levied against them are merely
a minor cost of doing business.
Some banks are getting rich off of these naked short sellers. The profits off this kind of
lending are tantalizing, indeed. Brokers are lending stocks they don't own for massive profit
and sizable bonuses.
This layer of what many have now called a "criminal organization" is the toughest for
regulators to deal with, regardless of the illegal nature of these activities.
Prime brokers lend cash account shares that are absolutely not allowed to be lent. They lend
them to short-sellers in order to facilitate them in settling their naked shorts.
It's not that the regulators are in the dark on this. They are, in fact, handing out fines,
left and right -- both for illegal lending and for mismarking "shorts" and "longs" to evade
regulatory scrutiny. The problem is that these fines pale in comparison to the profits earned
through these activities.
And banks in Canada in particular are basically writing the rules themselves, recently
making it easier (and legal) to lend out cash account shares.
Nor do law firms have clean hands. They help short sellers bankrupt targeted companies
through court proceedings, a process that eventually leads to the disappearance of evidence of
naked shorts on the bank books.
"How much has been stolen through this fraudulent system globally is anyone's guess," says
Christian, "but the number begins with a 'T' (trillions)."
The list of fines for enabling and engaging in manipulative activity that destroys
companies' stock prices may seem to carry big numbers from the retail investor's perspective,
but they are not even close to being significant enough to deter such actions:
- The SEC charged Citigroup's principal U.S. broker-deal subsidiary in 2011 with misleading
investors about a $1 billion collateralized debt obligation (CDO) tied to the U.S. housing
market. Citigroup had bet against investors as the housing market showed signs of distress. The
CDO defaulted only months later, causing severe losses for investors and a profit of $160
million (just in fees and trading profits). Citigroup paid $285 million to settle these SEC
charges.
- In 2016, Goldman, Sachs & Co. agreed to pay $15 million to settle SEC charges that
its securities lending practices violated federal regulations. To wit: The SEC found that
Goldman Sachs was mismarking logs and allowed customers to engage in short selling without
determining whether the securities could reasonably be borrowed at settlement.
- In 2013, a Charles Schwab subsidiary was found liable by the SEC for a naked short-selling
scheme and fined
$8.2 million .
- The SEC charged two Merrill Lynch entities in 2015 with using "inaccurate data in the
course of executing short sale orders", fining them $11 million.
- And most recently, Canadian Cormark Securities Inc and two others came under the SEC's
radar. On December 21, SEC instituted cease-and-desist orders against
Cormark. It also settled charges against Cormark and two other Canada-based broker deals for
"providing incorrect order-making information that caused an executing broker's repeated
violations of Regulation SHO". According to the SEC, Cormark and ITG Canada caused more than
200 sale orders from a single hedge fund, to the tune of more than $660 million between August
2016 and October 2017, to be mismarked as "long" when they were, in fact, "short" -- a clear
violation of Regulation SHO. Cormark agreed to pay a penalty of $800,000 , while ITG Canada -- one of
the other broker-dealers charged -- agreed to pay a penalty of $200,000. Charging and fining
Cormark is only the tip of the iceberg. The real question is on whose behalf was Cormark making
the naked short sells?
- In August 2020, Bank of Nova Scotia (Scotiabank) was fined
$127 million over civil and criminal allegations in connection with its role in a massive
price-manipulation scheme.
According to one Toronto-based Canadian trader who spoke to Oilprice.com on condition of
anonymity, "traders are the gatekeeper for the capital markets and they're not doing a very
good job because it's lucrative to turn a blind eye." This game is set to end in the near
future, and it is only a matter of time.
"These traders are breaking a variety of regulations, and they are taking this risk on
because of the size of the account," he said. "They have a responsibility to turn these
trades down. Whoever is doing this is breaking regulations [for the short seller] and they know
he is not going to be able to make a settlement. As a gatekeeper, it is their regulatory
responsibility to turn these trades away. Instead, they are breaking the law willfully and with
full knowledge of what they are doing."
"If you control the settlement system, you can do whatever you want," the source
said. "The compliance officers have no teeth because the banks are making big money. They
over-lend the stocks; they lend from cash account shares to cover some of these fails for
instance, if there are 20 million shares they sold 'long', they can cover by borrowing from
cash account shares."
The Naked Truth
In what he calls our "ominous financial reality", Tom C.W. Lin, attorney at law, details how
"millions of dollars can vanish in seconds, rogue actors can halt trading of billion-dollar
companies, and trillion-dollar financial markets can be distorted with a simple click or a few
lines of code".
Every investor and every institution is at risk, writes Lin.
The naked truth is this: Investors stand no chance in the face of naked short sellers. It's
a game rigged in the favor of a sophisticated short cartel and Wall Street giants.
Now, with online trading making it easier to democratize trading, there are calls for
regulators to make moves against these bad actors to ensure that North America's capital
markets remain protected, and retail investors are treated fairly.
The recent GameStop saga is retail fighting back against the shorting powers, and it's a
wonderful thing to see - but is it a futile punch or the start of something bigger? The
positive take away from the events the past week is that the term "short selling" has been
introduced to the public and will surely gather more scrutiny.
Washington is gearing up to get involved. That means that we can expect the full power of
Washington, not just the regulators, to be thrown behind protecting the retail investors from
insidious short sellers and the bankers and prime brokers who are profiting beyond belief from
these manipulative schemes.
The pressure is mounting in Canada, too, where laxer rules have been a huge boon for
manipulators. The US short cartel has preyed upon the Canadian markets for decades as they know
the regulators rarely take action. It is truly the wild west.
Just over a year ago,
McMillan published a lengthy report on the issue from the Canadian perspective, concluding
that there are significant weaknesses in the regulatory regime.
While covered short-selling itself has undeniable benefits in providing liquidity and
facilitating price discovery, and while the Canadian regulators' hands-off approach has
attracted many people to its capital markets, there are significant weaknesses that threaten to
bring the whole house of cards down.
McMillan also noted that "the number of short campaigns in Canada is utterly
disproportionate to the size of our capital markets when compared to the United States, the
European Union, and Australia".
Taking Wall Street's side in this battle, Bloomberg notes that Wall Street
has survived "numerous other attacks" over the centuries, "but the GameStop uprising could mark
the end of an era for the public short", suggesting that these actors are "long-vilified folks
who try to root out corporate wrongdoing".
Bloomberg even attempts to victimize Andrew Left's Citron Research, which -- amid all the
chaos -- has just announced that it has exited the short-selling game after two decades.
Nothing could be further from the truth. Short sellers, particularly the naked variety, are
not helping police the markets and route out bad companies, as Bloomberg suggests. Naked short
sellers are not motivated by moral and ethical reasons, but by profit alone. They attack good,
but weak and vulnerable companies. They are not the saviors of capital markets, but the
destroyers. Andrew Left may be a "casualty", but he is not a victim. Nor likely are the hedge
funds with whom he has been working.
In a petition initiated by Change.org, the petitioners urge the SEC and FINRA to
investigate Left and Citron Research, noting: "While information Citron Research publishes are
carefully selected and distributed in ways that do not break the law at first sight, the SEC
and FINRA have overlooked the fact that Left and Citron gains are a result of distributing
catalysts in an anticipation of substantial price changes due to public response in either
panic, encouragement, or simply a catalyst action wave ride. Their job as a company is to
create the most amount of panic shortly after taking a trading position so they and their
clients can make the most amount of financial gains at the expense of regular investors."
On January 25 th , the
Capital Markets Modernization Taskforce published its final report for Ontario's Minister
of Finance, noting that while naked short selling has been illegal in the United States since
2008, it remains a legal loophole in Canada. The task force is recommending that the Ministry
ban this practice that allows for the short-selling of tradable assets without first borrowing
the security.
The National Coalition Against Naked Short Selling - Failing to Deliver Securities (NCANS),
which takes pains to emphasize that is not in any way against short-selling, notes: "Naked
short-selling transfers the risk exposure and the hedging expense of the derivatives market
makers onto the backs of equity investors, without any corresponding benefit to them. This is
fundamentally unfair, and must stop."
Across North America, the issue is about to reach a fever pitch over GameStop. For once,
regular retail investors have a voice to use against Wall Street. And for once, Washington
appears to be listening. The House and Senate both have hearings
scheduled over the GameStop saga.
Paradoxically, the same company that basically started the retail investor coup -- zero-fee
trading app Robinhood -- is now under fire for pulling the rug out from under the same
democratic movement.
After retail investors joined forces against Wall Street short-sellers to push GameStop
stock from $20 to a high of over $480 in less than a week, Robinhood made the very unpopular
move of instituting
a ban on buying for retail investors. Under the rules, Wall Street could still buy and
sell, but retail investors could only sell. This new band of investors -- which includes pretty
much all of Robinhood's clientele -- are up in arms, with customers now suing. They won't go
away, and they have Washington's ear and Twitter and Reddit's social media power. This is
shaping up to be an uprising.
What happens with GameStop next could end up dictating a new form of capital markets
democracy that levels the playing field and punishes the Mafia-like elements of Wall Street
that have been fleecing investors and destroying companies for years.
Retail investors want to clean up capital markets, and they just might be powerful enough to
do it now. That's a serious wake-up call for both naked short sellers and the investing
public.
"... "We told the people who were already enjoying a prosperous situation that things would be much better for their children and that we would be able to solve the outstanding problems. [But the new situation] presents a much more difficult task to fulfill. Because from the moment there is no longer a constant surplus to be distributed, the question of distribution is appreciably more difficult to resolve." ..."
Highly recommend the Przeworski piece at Phenomenal World.
Most of it is reflections on/by
3 European leftist leaders from the 1970s-80s (German Prime Chancellor Willy Brandt, Austrian
Chancellor Bruno Kreisky, and Swedish Prime Minister Olof Palme) about how the oil shocks and
associated economic changes of the era presented a challenge to social democrats –
including ending the belief/fantasy that reformism could be system-changing – that they
(we) were not then, and I would argue still are not, able to address.
Palme spells out the difficulty:
"We told the people who were already enjoying a prosperous situation that things would
be much better for their children and that we would be able to solve the outstanding
problems. [But the new situation] presents a much more difficult task to fulfill. Because
from the moment there is no longer a constant surplus to be distributed, the question of
distribution is appreciably more difficult to resolve."
Brand echoes these concerns, noting that it is essential to prevent inequality from
increasing as growth resumes. Eighteen months later, during another in person meeting on 25
May 1975, Kreisky makes the fiscal constraint even more explicit:
"It is precisely now that
reforms should be made. It is just a question which. If we strongly develop social
policies, we will not be able to finance them."
Also included an amazing graph of declining electoral support for left/SD parties in
Europe.
"... Today's cultural dominance in much of the South and chunks of the Midwest by boobtoob preachers, Dominationists and the highly heretical oxymoronical "Christian" Zioni$ts can be seen as the afterbirth of cultural Calvinism. Calvinism is Talmudic in its essence and squats at the nexus of what they like to call "Judeo-Christian Civilization". ..."
The author Jafee is confused on Bentham, because Bentham was confused himself, or was a Jewish agent of mammon.
The highlighted terms accord with Benthamian Utilitarianism -- the greatest human happiness of the greatest human number.[1]
Much (but surely not all) pertinent history suggests that Bentham's thinking influenced the construction of the Preamble
The English philosopher Jeremey Bentham (1748-1832) was a defender of usury, which is the opposite of happiness for the greatest
human number.
In 1787 Jeremey Bentham wrote "In Defence of Usury." Bentham was the son of a rich lawyer, and a lawyer himself, not an economist,
which is why he was confused. Bentham created the present mis-definition of usury which prevails to today, so he was very damaging.
"The taking of grater interest than the law allows, or the taking of greater interest than is usual."
Bentham ignored hundreds of years of the Catholic Scholastics work on usury, and also ignored Aristotle. Actually Bentham attacked
Aristotle in order to spread his B.S. Bentham's father was Jewish, and Bentham also ignored the fairly strong Old Testament admonitions
against usury.
Bentham spread the same erroneous B.S. that Calvin did, and both men did enormous damage, and whether by design or confusion
are NOT for the common good. Their connections to our (((friends))) is suspicious.
A Persian Daric is a gold coin. Bentham said this: Though all money in nature is barren, though a Daric would not beget another
Daric yet for a Daric which a man borrowed he might get a ram and couple of ewes and the ewes would probably not be barren (pages
98 to 101 of his screed)
Aristotle and the Catholic Schoolmen clearly showed that it was the Ewes that were fertile, not the coins.
Bentham or Calvin could not read with comprehension and twisted words into new meanings. This twisted language persists in
the brains of modern humans as confusion.
As if every Daric is going to buy an Ewe in order to reproduce.
By 1850 John Whipple wrote "The Importance of Usury Laws – An answer to Jeremey Bentham."
"The purpose of money is to facilitate exchange. It was never intended as an article of trade, as an article possessing an
inherent value in itself, and further than as representative or test of the value of all other articles."
It undoubtedly admits of private ownership, but of an ownership that is not absolute, like the product of individual industry,
but qualified and limited by the special use for which it was designed.
And
The power of money over every other article, arises out of the artificial character given to it by the STATE , AND NOT
OUT OF THE QUALITIES OF THE MATERIAL WHICH IT IS COMPOSED.
Bentham also argued that anti-usury laws were due to prejudice against Jews. Whipple was not frightened by the Jew trick of
anti-semitism claims. Whipple said this in reply, "The real truth is this feeling which he calls prejudice is the result of the
moral instinct of mankind."
Whipple wasn't afraid of calling out the Jew.
In other words, Bentham did not have the moral instinct of mankind, but instead was a usurer, hiding behind his utilitarianism
doctrine.
My view is that the preamble general welfare clause is direct lineage that comes through Benjamin Franklin and his experiences
in the Philadelphia Colony. Franklin was definitely NOT a usurer, and was not confused on money.
The Preamble of the constitution reflects a Liebnizian metaphysic reflected in the notion of the pursuit of happiness, were
are not talking utilitarianism, but a recognition that man is made in the image of the creator, Imago Dei where happiness
reflects an acknowledgement that we are actually creative beings where happiness is a reflection of such creativity, above mere
acquisition of 'property' as the Confederacy devolved the phrase to "Life, Liberty and Property"
@Mefobills eply distorted by Calvinistic Puritanism and its "Chosen People" mythos.
Much of the religious fervor which dominated the American frontier in the latter decades of the 18th Century and early 19th–they
called it "The Great Awakening" -- was infused with the patriarchal form of religiosity as ignited by Calvinistic tropes and memes.
Today's cultural dominance in much of the South and chunks of the Midwest by boobtoob preachers, Dominationists and the
highly heretical oxymoronical "Christian" Zioni$ts can be seen as the afterbirth of cultural Calvinism. Calvinism is Talmudic
in its essence and squats at the nexus of what they like to call "Judeo-Christian Civilization".
My preference is to employ the more objectively truthful description: the "JudieChristie MagickMindfuck.
@Leonard R. Jaffee Anti-semitism card. Bentham even attacked Aristotle for corrupting Christianity.
In Bentham's book, Bentham associates some of the positive attributes of thrift with money lending. Money lending becomes on
the same plane as thrift in his worldview. An here is the coup-de-gras: Compound interest was forbidden in Bentham's day, and
Bentham urged its legalization.
A compound curve for interest is outside of nature, as the claims on nature grow exponentially. Nature does not grow exponentially.
Nature and labor cannot pay the claims, and society polarizes. Jesus started his mission on the Jubilee year, as Jubilees are
coded in the Bible to prevent polarization.
If Bentham wasn't a Jew, he certainly had the Jewish spirit. Bentham was not for the common good.
Covid-19 exposed some warts of neoliberalism in higher education... They want to keep those lucrative international students
flooding in, after all.
Notable quotes:
"... We align our identities with our institutions and think in very a short-term, metric-based fashion, seeing "success" (for instance) in terms of student recruitment (tuition fees paid in). Moreover, we're encouraged above all to be global in outlook: we look forward to our perennially "busy" international conference seasons and we emphasize the global and the transnational over the merely local or national ..."
"... our identities as academics are unavoidably embedded in a form of neoliberal hyperglobalisation. We rely on unrestricted flows of (wealthy) bodies across borders. ..."
"... We see this form of globalisation, and the benefits that accrue to us and our institutions from it, as a form of moral necessity : something it isn't possible even to argue against in good faith. Hence our loud assent to principles like open borders and always-on mass migration. ..."
"... Our commitment to the global as a form of moral mission has left us completely unprepared for what's currently unfolding. We are utterly unused to considering the material constraints of the economy our livelihoods depend on; that globalisation might come back to bite us; that the very aircraft that carry us across the world to conference destinations and field work sites would one day turn off the spigot of endlessly mobile bodies our careers and identities depend on. ..."
"... In this respect, I think of this post over at Crooked Timber, where John Quiggin (an economist I have a great deal of respect for) simply cannot bring himself to confront the possibility that the open borders dream might be dead. ..."
"... But the fact that the "export education" model was a disastrous wrong turn will take much longer to be accepted, I think, because of the widespread commitment I've been talking about here to the principle of the global as a form of moral necessity. ..."
we've had a Minsky-like process operating on a society-wide basis: as daily risks have declined, most people have blinded
themselves to what risk amounts to and where it might surface in particularly nasty forms. And the more affluent and educated
classes, who disproportionately constitute our decision-makers, have generally been the most removed.
I see something very similar happening in academia. We align our identities with our institutions and think in very a short-term,
metric-based fashion, seeing "success" (for instance) in terms of student recruitment (tuition fees paid in). Moreover, we're
encouraged above all to be global in outlook: we look forward to our perennially "busy" international conference seasons and we
emphasize the global and the transnational over the merely local or national (denigrated as narrow, provincial, and ideologically
suspect).
We like to see ourselves as mobile subjects, bodies in constant motion, our minds Romantically untethered from the confines
of any one nation state.
So our identities as academics are unavoidably embedded in a form of neoliberal hyperglobalisation. We rely on unrestricted
flows of (wealthy) bodies across borders. Our institutions (or many of them) have become dependent on international students
and their superior fee-paying ability compared with merely "domestic students."
We might agree in principle with ideas of a GND,
say, or take an ecocritical approach to a novel or a play, but we're certainly not going to cut back on the number of international
conferences we attend. Indeed, many of us go further.
We see this form of globalisation, and the benefits that accrue to us and our institutions from it, as a form of moral
necessity : something it isn't possible even to argue against in good faith. Hence our loud assent to principles like open borders
and always-on mass migration. We have to keep those lucrative international students flooding in, after all. (Not that we'd
ever put it in terms as crassly material as that; after all, we don't work in university administration .)
Our commitment to the global as a form of moral mission has left us completely unprepared for what's currently unfolding.
We are utterly unused to considering the material constraints of the economy our livelihoods depend on; that globalisation might
come back to bite us; that the very aircraft that carry us across the world to conference destinations and field work sites would
one day turn off the spigot of endlessly mobile bodies our careers and identities depend on.
Hence the reason why a lot of my colleagues are so lost right now. They're so used to living on a purely symbolic (or moral-symbolic)
level that the materiality of this virus and its consequences seems like a crude insult. Many stubbornly hold on to their old
commitments, unwilling to admit that the world might have changed.
In this respect, I think of this post over at
Crooked Timber, where John Quiggin (an economist I have a great deal of respect for) simply cannot bring himself to confront the
possibility that the open borders dream might be dead.
Where we go from here, I have no idea. But the fact that international and Erasmus students might be gone for the foreseeable
future, and the major implications this will have for the financial viability or our universities, seems to be slowly sinking
in.
But the fact that the "export education" model was a disastrous wrong turn will take much longer to be accepted, I think,
because of the widespread commitment I've been talking about here to the principle of the global as a form of moral necessity.
"... "I am also reading the the next focus of the little people investors is the highly manipulated precious metals markets.....I love the smell of burning Wall Street in the morning." ..."
"... Back in the Oughts when the fraudulent mortgages were grossly inflating Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), there were many instances of naked short selling to keep honest REITs down, activities I learned firsthand. We formed a shareholders organization that lobbied the SEC to enforce its laws but to no avail--the regulators were well captured and did zip. ..."
"... There's short selling, and then there's naked short selling. Why do the markets require naked short selling? If those hedge funds already owned the stocks that they are selling short, they would not be in such trouble now. ..."
Early this week a few amateur stock trading nerds decided to promote a stock that was heavily shortened by certain hedge funds.
The idea was to raise the stock price of Game Stop Corp., a vendor for computer games, by having lots of small stock traders to
buy into it. The hedge fund that shortened the stock, and thereby bet on a dropping stock price, would then make huge losses while
the many small buyers would potentially profit.
Instead of greed, this latest bout of speculation, and especially the extraordinary excitement at GameStop, has a different
emotional driver: anger. The people investing today are driven by righteous anger, about generational injustice, about what
they see as the corruption and unfairness of the way banks were bailed out in 2008 without having to pay legal penalties later,
and about lacerating poverty and inequality. This makes it unlike any of the speculative rallies and crashes that have preceded
it.
The movement was successful. The stock price of Game Stop Corp. rose from some $10 to over $400 within just a few days. The
short seller
had
to take cover under a larger firm:
Hedge fund Melvin Capital closed out its short position in GameStop on Tuesday after taking huge losses as a target of the
army of retail investors. Citadel and Point72 have infused close to $3 billion into Gabe Plotkin's hedge fund to shore up its
finances.
I'm shocked! Absolutely shocked to see that the game of finance is rigged!!!!/snark
There have not been market fundamentals since the beginning of financialization in 1971 when money became fiat instead of gold
backed. I find it interesting that it has taken 50 years for the cancer of financialization to fully compromise the host. It will
be interesting to see where this goes from here.
I think the speed of decline of empire is speeding up as noted by the increase in international investment in China.
I am also reading the the next focus of the little people investors is the highly manipulated precious metals markets.....I
love the smell of burning Wall Street in the morning.
"I am also reading the the next focus of the little people investors is the highly manipulated precious metals markets.....I
love the smell of burning Wall Street in the morning."
Is Max Keiser going after the silver market again? I bet he was posting on r/Wallstreetbets to stir things up!
Back in the Oughts when the fraudulent mortgages were grossly inflating Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), there were many
instances of naked short selling to keep honest REITs down, activities I learned firsthand. We formed a shareholders organization
that lobbied the SEC to enforce its laws but to no avail--the regulators were well captured and did zip.
We even ran full pages ads in the NY Times and WaPost to add visibility to our justifiable outrage, which was well proven when
the bubble burst.
But Obama didn't do his job and enforce the law, and the entire mess is far worse now. This episode epitomizes the amazing
amounts of corruption masquerading as well regulated markets and an equitable financial system.
I support Hudson's debt forgiveness for the main reason it will bankrupt the debt holders--the Financial Parasites--who are
also the beneficiaries of the corrupt system; and with their destruction, will allow for the rise of the Public Financial Utility
that will restore law and order to that realm of the economy. Yes, this must be seen as yet another episode of the longstanding
Class War, one of the most brazen ever.
There's short selling, and then there's naked short selling. Why do the markets require naked short selling? If those hedge
funds already owned the stocks that they are selling short, they would not be in such trouble now.
Citadel and Point72 have infused close to $3 billion into Gabe Plotkin's hedge fund to shore up its finances.
-b
How Robinhood was rigged:
Robinhood sells its orderflow to Citadel for execution. Citadel then chiselled the retail investor for pennies per trade by frontrunning (think high freq trading) before execution
of retail order, inflating the price and cheating the customer.
Citadel bailed out Citron, essentially inheriting the short position. Citadel then threatened Robinhood with refusing payment for orderflow
The globalists found just the economics they were looking for.
The USP of neoclassical economics – It concentrates wealth.
Let's use it for globalisation.
Mariner Eccles, FED chair 1934 – 48, observed what the capital accumulation of
neoclassical economics did to the US economy in the 1920s. "a giant suction pump had by 1929 to 1930 drawn into a few hands an increasing proportion
of currently produced wealth. This served then as capital accumulations. But by taking
purchasing power out of the hands of mass consumers, the savers denied themselves the kind of
effective demand for their products which would justify reinvestment of the capital
accumulation in new plants. In consequence as in a poker game where the chips were
concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, the other fellows could stay in the game only by
borrowing. When the credit ran out, the game stopped"
This is what it's supposed to be like.
A few people have all the money and everyone else gets by on debt.
McFaul says that "Biden's team should come up with new ways to grow these ties [with
ordinary Russians] even over Putin's objections. In the long run, forging and sustaining
links with Russian society will undermine anti-American propaganda as well as American
stereotypes about Russia."
To this, McFaul adds that, "The new administration should make it easier for Russians to
study in and travel to the United States," and urges European states to do the same.
My take on this is very simple: the West cannot even absorb their own youth anymore. What
makes them think they can absorb Russia's?
Besides, it's not so simple an operation to attract young people to your country to study.
The logistics are very complicated, and it requires a lot of resources not even counting the
promise of jobs within your own country (in the case of STEM students). Even the brain drain
from countries with large populations such as China and India don't surpass much above the
low to mid six digits. And those programs take time to gain traction - decades in most cases.
And all of this already taking into account the fact that your country still has to be an
attractive place.
Discontent already exists in Americans with Indian STEM from H1B1 visa program. As the
excess population rises, so will resistance to new influx of immigrants - specially
high-skilled ones. This will snowball to a stage where Americans become second-class citizens
in their own country (as you would have to guarantee the jobs for the foreigners in order to
sweeten the deal).
How will the USA regain its advantage in this world?
I was looking back at some earlier reports to gain an insight into the means by which the
USA gave the game away and the means that might restore its place in the economic world. It
has allowed itself to be completely captive to global private finance AND ownership of the
keys to its salvation. If it dfoes not nationalise its key industries then it can rest
assured of its doom. IMO it is now almost impossible for it to nationalise a pizza parlour
let alone an education or engineering sector.
If the USA is to survive the oncoming collapse and break free of its apocalyptic war
agenda, then certain realities WILL have to occur. These realities include (but are not
limited to):
1) Regaining its lost industrial potential, with an emphasis on the machine tool sector
which the west once enjoyed as a world leader
2) Regaining the lost scientific and technological capacities which the USA once had
when it still valued productive thinking under the days of JFK and NASA
3) Regaining a grasp of education which values productive citizens over consumer
subjects
4) Regaining control over national credit under federal banking, dirigisme and other
long-term investment practices that rely on regulating Wall Street speculation and other
unproductive forms of banking.
How might these vital capacities be regained?....
The USA is incapable of nationalising its education sector and is incapable
systemically of having the patience to await the benefits. It will continue to sustain an
education sector that is designed to transfer $$$ in taxation directly to private corporation
pockets and to do so by reducing the the number of salary earners between the input $ and the
$ that end in private corporation pockets. The private corporations will continue to perfect
the swindle of returning the least possible effort in return for those $$$.
Ditto for defence spending and every other sector.
The USAi is hoist by its own petard and has a dull brained president surrounded by
ideological obsessives, cultural paranoiacs, a narcissistic Congress and Senate. It will not
be capable of restoring its real economy and will continue to imagine itself as a world
leader. It will berate and negate and cancel all unorthodox thought from those that favour
nation building.
The rest of the world's nations had better take note. Clearly many have.
I actually talked about this with Kuppy last week.
He considers HFT a problem but not crippling; he says they cost him $10K to $25K a day
but apparently this isn't enough to deter his hedge fund activities. He said that up to 70%
of trading volume activity in any stock is HFT (!).
As for scam: well - the value of the front running exists only so long as the herd is in
the market. Every single market crash - whether bitcoin or the stock market or whatever -
sees the vast majority of players exit (or bankrupt). At that point, the trading volumes
and numbers of people participating plummet dramatically.
How valuable do you think RH's model is then?
Sounds to me that HFT is a scam in itself. Am I to believe that algorithms trading against
each other repetitively at high speed is anything other than machine driven gambling on one
algorithm's interpretation of the behaviour of another algorithm, mostly outside of the human
buy and sell in the market place. Are the humans just strapped on for the ride through a
cabal of trading companies?
@ uncle t # 168 who wrote
"
I was looking back at some earlier reports to gain an insight into the means by which the USA
gave the game away and the means that might restore its place in the economic world. It has
allowed itself to be completely captive to global private finance AND ownership of the keys
to its salvation. If it does not nationalize its key industries then it can rest assured of
its doom.
"
I continue to posit that the key industry that needs to be "nationalized/made totally
sovereign" is finance. If humanity can follow China's lead, the motivations in the other
industries will revert to doing what is right, rather than what is profitable.
In regards to your HFT comment in # 172, you have calling HFT a scam correct. It is
programmed/manufactured theft under the guise of AI.
When guys like Michael Saylor put a half a billion into bitcoin they have done their
homework. Seems to me a scam is an operation containing a lot of lies. I don't see how
bitcoin falls into that category.
As far as a Ponzi scheme I also do not see the connection. It is nothing like a Ponzi.
There are no promises of big returns or large dividends.
When people follow 'guys like Michael Saylor [and see him] put a half a billion into bitcoin
they [think] have done their homework [and follow like fish chasing a lure] THEN they have
been sucked into a ponzi scheme where the lure is a fast buck if they follow the (smart?)
leader. Then the smart leader progressively sells out at a sweet peak and the chumps watch it
dip for a month or two. Unless of course there are lots of paid journalists and bloggers and
facebook praise singers pumping the lure of the endless profit of bitcoin.
Sounds like rumours of gold in them thar hills.
There are a large number of lies (or exaggeration?) in bitcoin and all spun within a
sheath of mystery and complexity and even 'mining' to smear some credible lipstick on the
scheme.
There is a sucker born every minute and they invest in BS and love a veneer of mystique
and bitcoin falls squarely into the category of lies and scams and fancy imaginings and the
lure that suckers are forever chasing. Yes, people buy and sell and some make a profit - same
as any ponzi scheme.
"... It's really quite simple actually. The same folks who did the 911 false flag attack crime are behind the virus hoax. Their ends have never changed; to acquire power and control (which they certainly already have) And to use any means no matter how ruthless and murderous to keep it. ..."
"... When you control all the money in the world, even if you don't have truth on your side, you have immense power. ..."
"... Forget the 99.99% Vs 00.01%. Imagine a few hundred who are running the Covid scam and vaccine poisoning programme and the couple of million opposing it. They are continuing. The opposition, in the meantime, is living on the internet posting 'truth's and pictures of Hitler. ..."
"... Just caught some more mainstream pish on how Fauci blamed his "country's ineffective pandemic response on an American "anti-science bias." He called this bias "inconceivable," because "science is truth." ..."
"... So Fauci stated "science is truth." – but that is what makes "Fauci" a charlaton in the eyes of real scientists; science is ever changing, evolving, ever questioned, enhanced and even proved incorrect. Today's theories (what he believes to be the truth), will be smiled upon in the future. ..."
Off-Guardian commenter, Maribel Tuff, expands their comment Above The
Line.
Bringing together the US emergency bank lending crisis and the now massive Covid response,
I've concluded that one of the main reasons it is happening, apart from the corporate looting,
is because of a historic event, the USA's economic collapse and the dollar's demise, which
started just weeks before this Covid operation kicked off, and has been put on hold by a world
wide manufactured economic 'freeze'.
THE END OF 'EXTEND AND PRETEND'
A few months before Covid appeared, the Fed were busy pouring literally trillions of dollars
into the US banks, to prevent inter-lending bank-runs which were starting to develop. These
were the same tectonic fissures that developed prior to the 2008 crisis, where the banks became
so distrustful of each other's solvency, that they massively increased interest rates to each
other to factor in the risk. If unsuppressed the lending rates would continue to rise, laying a
path to bank failures and a contagion which would eventually derail the economy and undermine
the dollar itself.
In September 2019 the Fed intervened in the repo. markets for four consecutive
days, pumping $75 billion per day into the banks, as the inter-banking interest rate –
the repo rate – peaked at a terrifying
10% [ 1 ]. If this
level were allowed to contaminate regular highstreet lending, it would cause widespread debt
defaults & insolvencies.
The dangers are far greater today because, unlike in 2008, Quantitive Easing (QE) has pushed
the Fed to the limits of its credibility, and are forcing them into causing some serious
currency debasement. If they continue with the forms of QE they are shackled to, then dollar
debasement becomes a certainty in a US economy that is far more fragile & indebted
generally and less able to cope.
The Fed must have known for a few years that QE was not returning the economy to economic
normality, and that they were still trapped in the solvency crisis of 2008. Knowing this, the
Fed were prepared for the latest crisis. They had made it possible to inject hundreds of
billions of dollars into the banking system discreetly, unlike in 2008, without any additional
Congressional fanfare, via the Financial Stability
Oversight Council , formed in 2010.
They had given themselves almost unlimited funds and the resources of the entire government
if necessary, to reassure the banks that collapse was impossible. This 'rescue operation' was
being played out, relatively unreported except in the financial press, only weeks prior to the
Covid flu appearing on the world stage. Issuing
..
cumulative repo loans totalling more than $9 trillion to the trading houses on Wall
Street that the Fed had been making from September 17 of 2019 – months before the onset
of COVID-19 anywhere in the world [ 2 ]
Unlike in 2008, this second use or continued use of mass Fed stimulus is not a new untested
idea and, by using it again or continuing to use it more intensely to stabilise the banks, it
would eventually lead the markets to conclude that we are locked in a never ending cycle of
stimulus, which will inevitably end in hyperinflation and dollar collapse.
That is an uncontroversial economic fact, and will be the conclusion of the Fed's current
policy. In that context, an external 'event' could be critical in taking the spotlight off US
finance and its woes.
The Fed
will not want to exit repo operations until they are absolutely certain the market can stand
on its own two feet. [ 3 ], [
4 ]
United States Overnight Repo Rate was at 0.11 on Friday January 15
But, as they well know given their experience over the past 10 years, the markets will never
be able to stand on their own feet in the current economic model. Now not only companies are
being kept afloat by low interests rates, the US itself is dependent and kept solvent by
low interest rates.
The fed has injected or made available over 9 trillion dollars to the banks in only 6 months
leading up to March 2020, that is over 40% of the USA's GDP, prior to Covid and represents
nearly a 40% increase in the USA's national debt!
So it is becoming very obvious that we are at the end of this particular monetary road, the
'extend and pretend' policy is finished and there is nothing in the economic tool box that can
stall the inevitable. Only an external 'divine' intervention could, even temporarily delay the
dollar's collapse. As an aside, I should add, although they may be affected later, this is not
happening in European or Asian banks, only in US banks.
THE DIVERSION
In my opinion, the US security agencies picked a scenario off the shelf, something they have
been justifiably rehearsing for years, the response to a deadly virus, which would produce the
required financial shutdown, suppress bank activity, and create a world crisis big enough to
eclipse the US economic crisis and produce a 'flight to safety' into the dollar, facilitating
an economic induced coma, allowing time, a breathing space and justifying massive emergency QE
injections into the US and world economy.
It could be sold as a period during which a restructuring of the world banking system could
take place and perhaps reschedule debt as well as redefine the mechanisms of a new reserve
currency.
This is what I think 'The Great Reset' really is about. It is being painted as something
intricate and nefarious on every level, but it's possibly more utilitarian than that, a
necessary dialog, where the subject of that dialog is sealed from the public, justified by
protecting our worried and panicky ears, and which concerns almost all western world
leaders.
I'm sure a major false flag terror attack would have been discussed as an alternative to
Covid, but the US is in no fit position economically to respond militarily, and without a
military response to a terror attack the US would fear looking weak. Although Wars have been
thought to resolve many an economic crisis, it is just as likely, in this instance, that a
proxy war with Russia or a direct war with Iran would precipitate a dollar collapse, rather
than create growth and a flight to 'safety'. China would no doubt gleefully humiliate the US
during such a conflict. So I speculate that major wars, as an economic solution, are off the
table, at least until this crisis is resolved.
Creating a virus out of thin air is a cruel and vicious deceit, but the Fed will no doubt
have claimed to its allies that it is far less painful than the total economic implosion we
will face in the brewing economic collapse, where financial contagion from the US would cause
most western financial institutions to become insolvent, debt would remain unpaid, trade would
cease, asset values would crumble, bank machines stop, riots start, martial law be declared,
and in many ill-prepared, import-dependent countries like the UK, rationing and eventually
hunger would begin.
This is the threat the fed would have made to their allies, as we know for a fact they did
in 2008, when asking for a united world central bank stimulus, making it appear vital to world
economic survival.
They would have claimed that this time around the economic dangers are of such a magnitude
that they even persuaded their foes, Russia and China, to partake in the hoax, because they are
also reliant on continued banking & economic stability, and would not be willing to risk
political instability at home caused by a second world economic depression.
By creating this suspension of an economic collapse, the US has cleverly turned the
dominance of the dollar into a matter of international survival, effectively holding the world
to ransom and blocking the baton of world reserve currency being dually transferred over to the
next economic ascendant, China, and where the US has effectively engineered themselves a seat
amongst the judges at their own bankruptcy hearing.
Believing this to be the case, I am less confused as to why most of the USA's allies were so
helpful and so consistent in making this Covid operation happen, and I have concluded it is
their belief in the integrated nature of the financial & currency markets and the threat of
economic collapse posited, as in 2008 by the Fed, that is causing their
complicity.
MUTUAL SECRECY
As each irrational, destructive lockdown measure is implemented I am quite sure that our
politicians, the very few that are in the know, say to each other: 'we are lucky because
"lockdowns" are as nothing, compared to the calamity that would overtake us in the event of a
dollar-induced economic collapse!' This, for me, explains their apparent insanity, lies and the
internationally co-ordinated nature of their response. They too are acting out of fear, not for
a virus, but for fear of anarchy and, by extension, the very real threat to their own lives
that would result.
The secrecy surrounding this operation is wholly consistent, because it is in nobody's
interests to break ranks. If anyone exposes what is really happening to the US economy then it
would precipitate the run on the banks, and then the dollar, that they are being told would
lead to a world economic catastrophe.
To explore this hypothesis, we can look at the varying responses of the world players, and
measure their reluctance or complicity in the scam, because at this turning point in history,
during these shifts of power, loyalty is not guaranteed.
Japan has been strangely reluctant to take part, indicating to me their brooding irritation
with US hegemony, which has been growing amongst their population for some years and expressed
through the Osprey protests . It looked at
one point like they were flirting with the idea of ignoring Covid altogether. Prompting the US
to 'invite' Japan to join 5-eyes, perhaps to exert more direct control over them, via their
security services?
Russia and China are reluctantly playing along for obvious economic reasons, but again we
see reluctance to go full hog, despite the attraction of introducing authoritarian measures at
home under the cover of Covid. Russia has even invented a non-existent vaccine for the
non-existent virus, giving themselves an instant opt-out when required. Whereas China is
preferring to just stop testing, and ignore the 'crisis' altogether, except for the odd
statement about how dangerous it all is.
Non-western Africa, is not taking part at all, in Nigeria there are very few cases, probably
because they are out of the loop on what is really happening, and see little evidence of a
virus in their population.
Germany although physically occupied by the US, like Japan, have a confidence and
independence that marks them apart from other vassal states. Having 'found' far fewer cases of
Covid, they have tried to preserve their precious economy from any serious harm for as long as
possible, demonstrating a cheekiness, consistent with their building of the Nord-stream
pipeline project to Russia, ignoring the US's repeated demands for them to stop.
In contrast, the USA's closest, most supine of allies, & the 5 eyes states, are
enthusiastically taking part, hyping the virus story to the n th degree of
absurdity. Notably the UK, France and Australia, each week pushing yet another absurdly fascist
response to a non-existent problem to scare their population stiff. In my view each allies'
response is calibrated to their financial dependency on the US and how 'captured' their leaders
are to US interests.
On the political and media front, alternative media, doubtless spurred on by seeded stories
and certain controlled opposition, unwittingly fans these flames by speculating on various
kingpins and ideologues central to the plot, like Bill & Malinda Gates, and playing up fear
stories of Marxist tyrannies, Communist takeovers, compulsory vaccines, tracking chips and
various accusations against the dangers of 5G – targeted for being predominately European
and Chinese technology.
The end result is a population left either paralysed by fear of the flu, or in terror of a
rising 'Marxist Fascist tyranny' run by 'jewish globalists' and oligarchs. Either way, everyone
is in too fearful a state to logically assess what is really going on around them.
I'm sure, in the dark bowels of Langley, Virginia, this scenario has been pre-rehearsed and
stress-tested for years, and pieced together from a huge portfolio of coups and psychological
terror operations from around the world.
Perhaps with lessons learned from Climate Change where, as with the weather, the common flu
can easily be weaponised. In the case of Covid via a swiftly implemented 'testing' regime,
simply testing for the common cold and producing millions of false positives, and a hysterical,
totally unquestioning mainstream media.
COVID OPPORTUNISM
International Covid panic created some short term, but worryingly for the USA, short-lived
'flight to safety'. 'International crisis' is the USA's traditional and most effective tool to
protect the dollar: normally US/UK media-manufactured. It was used to bolster a flagging dollar
via the media-created 'Euro crisis' or 'Greek debt crisis'. A series of hysterical panics made
'real' by US and UK financial press, quickly making the USA's economic woes old news, and
reducing the world reserve holdings of the Euro in only a matter of months.
Along with the 'flight to (dollar) safety', Covid has offered the opportunity to freeze the
USA's banking collapse with massive injections of cash. $9 trillions was available to US banks
up until March 2020, but in addition to this the Fed produced $5 trillion in economic stimulus
to the wider economy and a further 5 trillions recently.
Without this 'external threat' – a 'killer virus' – this amount of stimulus
would have immediately caused panic and threatened dollar credibility. However, with the virus
narrative and the world-unified stimulus response to the 'Covid pandemic', this modest flight
to (dollar) safety, along with the massive cash injections, looked justified and sensible.
It also looks to me like those in the 'dollar economic zone' – if there is such a
thing – have gone along with their own impoverishment and have wrecked their own
economies under the cover of Covid, to save themselves from a perceived greater economic
catastrophe, bank contagion, on the basis of what I believe is being secretly told them by the
USA, and based on what they have been witnessing in the US banking system prior to March.
It could easily be argued that we are being unwittingly drawn into a conspiracy to protect
the dollar and US hegemony, under the cover of Covid, that is not in our own best long-term
interests at all (currently being called the 'great reset').
Like Brexit and like the War on Carbon, I believe that if an operation or manufactured event
seems to offer multifaceted advantages to the USA and their Corporate & military elite,
then that operation has revealed its origins.
As it is the case with Covid, not only is there a freeze on the US economic collapse, but US
Corporations and Internet services are benefiting massively from the 'Covid illusion'.
Something that must be getting more obvious by the day, and must be giving honest foreign
leaders concerns as they see their retail sectors ravaged by Amazon and their cultural
institutions replaced by Netflix, Apple TV and Amazon TV.
And the proposed 'salvation' involves paying billions to US Pharma, for, at best, a very
doubtful vaccine. The least-honest politicians can no doubt engineer their 'shutdowns' to
preference US corporations, whilst acting as the viceroys of Empire.
This looting could just be a side-show to the main event of dollar 'transition' or collapse,
or it could be amongst the main aims of 'Operation Covid', it is difficult to tell, but it
looks like the rest of the world is being looted by US Corporations and their home grown
small-to-medium-size businesses bankrupted, with vast additional profits flowing to the USA's
richest, where we see the stella rise in the wealth of America's robber barons.
From renting taxis with Uber to replacing hotels with AirBNB flats, holding meetings on
zoom, spending 'cash free' via Visa, MasterCard et al and the Paypal cartel, ordering food
on-line with Uber eats and destroying local culture, all are being forced on a gullible world
public during the Covid selective collapse. It should be dawning on everyone by now that Covid
is a very, very Neoliberal Corporate virus, strangely working in the interests of a continued
US Corporate neoliberal rollout against our own national geopolitical interests.
It is not only the Corporates that benefit from US 'operations' like Covid, the security
state also demands their share of the spoils for assisting in and facilitating much of the
operation. US tracking apps, social media and communication platforms are being forced, as a
parasitical middle man, into every walk of our lives, taking a thin slice off everyday
activities, like an America tax.
The details of the implementation of the Covid operation aside, it is possible that many
inside the system regard the 'Great Reset' as not a conspiracy to oppress us, to exploit us and
destroy our lives in a Marxist tyranny as many believe, but rather regard it as a necessary
adjustment to an unbalanced economic system.
To see it like that we must believe that the current system is fundamentally flawed and that
good faith solutions are being sought. I think 'The Reset' is seen by many honest brokers
around the world as a genuine platform to resolve flaws in the current world economy, and to
manage a transition from the dollar, in a controlled fashion. We should not always think the
worst motives of everyone involved.
Having said that, I have no doubt that the US is busy trying to hijack the agenda to
preserve its own supremacy, even during its climactic demise. The US Military industrial
complex will be suspicious of any direction not determined by them, and I'm sure in Washington,
Brussels and Beijing there is a battle over the measures and direction we need to take.
Like it or not, there may be very good reasons for these discussions to be held in secret,
and we are left with only secondhand hints of the battles being fought over our current
economic future; like Universal income, a shared international reserve currency, digital
currencies or a cashless society, perhaps required through exchange controls or price fixing,
to fight coming hyper-inflation?
Many US shills will be telling the world, that this is a 'crisis of capitalism', a crisis of
western civilisation, and that we all need to preserve the US economy & dollar supremacy to
save the world.
I personally believe the US has set us up during this crisis, like they did in the last in
2008, where they dumped all their bad debt on European banks to 'share' the crisis out. Working
on the principle that: a problem shared is a problem halved, perhaps. Even if we are in this
crisis because of a US collapse, and the rest of us could survive relatively unscathed. A
'Reset' does appear to be one route that enables a slow deflating of the economic bomb sitting
under the US and which may affect the rest of us badly, if it goes off.
" SHE SWALLOWED
THE SPIDER TO CATCH THE FLY;
I DON'T KNOW WHY SHE SWALLOWED A FLY – PERHAPS SHE'LL DIE "
I reference the nursery rhyme as a cautionary tail, because this all started with the
relatively normal economic recession of 2007, which if the USA had allowed to burn through its
economy, would have been resolved in only a few years, and we would be living in normal times
now. But they didn't. The world's central banks were persuaded to take measures that caused
greater long-term harm, which in turn has led, in my view, to the 'Covid solution', a
provocation intended to temporarily justify even more of the poisonous QE and low interest
rates that didn't work before.
Whilst perhaps sold as a 'fire-break for a more long term solution to be found, I don't see
much evidence that the 'fire-break' is being used well. It seems more like a pause for the
always shortsighted American elites to loot as much as is possible from our states' coffers
before an economic tsunami hits.
A SELF-INFLICTED PROBLEM
I also believe the US never needed to be in this grave position it is today. Its problems
are very much self inflicted. Simply taxing its wealthy and cutting its outrageous military
spending would have averted a dollar crisis, leading instead to a slow drift from the dollar
over a few decades as China took up the strain. But that is another story related to America's
ideological, political and philosophical bankruptcy and scleroses, that has increasingly driven
them into an economic ditch over the past 45 years.
The Covid operation itself is a beautiful metaphor for the original banking crisis, which
triggered the Fed to use quantitive easing (QE) – a far, far more damaging response than
the original crisis itself, just as the lockdowns are far, far more damaging than this strain
of flu, naturally occurring or released deliberately as a marker.
If a consensus resolution is not found quickly for the transfer or sharing of the world
reserve currency, as the dollar is about to collapse, I have no doubt we will be required to
'swallow' a more drastic intervention than Covid to save the US economy and the dollar, each
solution proving more damaging than the last And of course, as the rhyme goes, we will
eventually swallow a 'horse' and be 'dead of course'.
If I am right guys, in one respect you can breathe a sigh of relief: world tyranny, forced
vaccinations with harmful DNA changes, sterilisations, and mass genocide are not the main aims
of this 'operation'. They may be the end result of it, if we are not careful, but I don't think
they are the main aims.
The US is trying to stall dollar relegation using the Covid operation, and make it a major
event, when previously the transition from old to new world reserve currency would have gone
almost unnoticed by most of us. The British ceded the Pound's world reserve currency status
relatively quietly after WWII, under US pressure to float the pound.
It is perhaps a measure of the utility that is now offered by the world's reserve currency,
to facilitate the uncontrolled looting of the rest of the world's economies, that it is now
such a prize and so hard to surrender. Without the dollar and its world reserve status,
enabling the US to print pieces of green paper in exchange for real goods, the US would
certainly be bankrupt.
But that is not our fault and it is not for us in the rest of the world to save them,
especially since it is their ideology that has inflicted so much harm on their own people and
the rest of world.
What we are witnessing is an attempt, through foul means, by another once great Empire to
postpone the inevitable. To fight off being consigned to obscurity.
So we exist in that mad time, that time of collapse and chaos before a new order asserts
itself, which could last a month or 100 years.
You can view Maribel Tuff's original comment
here .
The author wished to remain anonymous.
anti_republocrat , Jan 25, 2021 9:51 PM
I was initially not very aware of the liquidity problem that developed in September, 2019,
but I became aware of lots of weirdness quite early. Some examples are the FDA shutting down
the testing Dr. Hlelen Chu was conducting on stored sample in January. I concluded that the
federal government did not want her detecting SARS-CoV-2 in samples collected in 2019. Also,
in mid-March, Ben Swann released a video discussing the invalid comparison of Covid's CFR
with flu's IFR. If an apples to apples comparison had been made, people would have known that
flu is far more dangerous than Covid-19. A third weirdness was the CDC's changes to death
certificate criteria exposed by MN state senator Dr. Scott Jensen. He is now enduring
harassment from the state medical board and has had to defend his license to practice in MN.
About the same time, I became more aware of the liquidity issue and concluded that obscuring
that was a prime motivator for hoax, but there were several other motivations. Not all
participants in an event necessarily share the same motivation.
It became obvious to me early on that the Gates/Fauci/WHO/HHS crowd was lying about
Hydroxychloroquine in order to boost vaccine development. It was hard to link that interest
to multiple state governors deliberately committing genocide, but a FB friend yesterday clue
me into this article about the power and control of Anthony Fauci throughout the medical
establishment: https://kevinbarrett.heresycentral.is/2020/06/mccarthy/
Fear of such power may also be the reason that the FLCCC Alliance affiliated Eastern Virginia
Medical School has disfavored HCQ. They clearly believe, probably with good reason, that
Ivermectin is better, so they don't want to get smeared with HCQ while they're pushing an
even better alternative.
The third motivation is the desire to be rid of Trump. Trump was many bad things, but he
was also opposed to the US being controlled by an international globalist, technocratic Deep
State. He thus had opponents all over the West, not just in the US. Members of the Deep State
were in a perfect position to make sure the funders and controllers of the Democratic Party
apparatus were aware how they could use a pandemic and lock downs against Trump.
I'm sure individuals who participated in the hoax had varying levels of awareness, as Ken
McCarthy explained when interviewed by Kevin Barrett in the link above. Some actually
believed the Covid-19 narrative. Some were afraid to speak out, seeing the retribution faced
by others. But many were well aware of what they were doing, even to the point of deliberate
eldercide.
It's a good thing most of my life has passed, because death is the only cure for me. No
amount of de-programming or exposure to rats will make me unsee what I've seen.
The US with the largest military on the planet surrendering power to 'an international
globalist, technocratic Deep State."? I don't see that as a choice any US president would
make, or is making. Why would they, they hold all the cards and have created in their minds
the greatest empire in History.
If there are two alternative views of the future for America, one being pursued by Biden
and an alternative by Trump, both will involve American supremacy and control.
Norman E Anderson , Jan 25, 2021 8:34 PM
The Solution: A Global Rush to BitCoin.. pump BitCoin to the Maximum.. then dump it all
into their "LIBRA DIEM" just waiting to be offered at the right time.. all to Fund the
"balanced ERA 56 Per Diem Stipend" of the New Global Serf Class
Bitcoin will fail in the face of the e-yuan, following dollar collapse. China is way ahead
in making their digital currency official.
Lone Wolf , Jan 25, 2021 7:51 PM
This article could portray the absolute reality of the world situation but it will only be
read by 99.99999% of the world's population. Of that 0% will be capable of acting positively
in support of it.
This applies to every article that appears in OffGuardian. Words hold the ephemeral value
of 'chip paper', they are incapable of effecting a solution to a problem that cannot be
resolved by words alone.
Understanding this lies at the root of the REAL solution.
paranoid goy , Jan 25, 2021 1:20 PM
You know a thing as a simple truth by it being simple without being simplistic. But the
Bolsheviks never let a good crisis go to waste, so keep fighting Baal Gates' holy water!
Excellent post.
JdL , Jan 25, 2021 8:49 AM
"Off-Guardian commenter, Maribel Tuff, expands their comment Above The Line."
Who are "they" in this sentence? Please don't tell me this is some kind of genderless BS,
using the plural to mean singular just to avoid – GASP! – implying whether
someone is male or female.
I took it to be a deliberate use of a gender-neutral pronoun not out of political
correctness, but because it is an understood pen name and there's no reason to believe the
writer is one sex or the other. (Of course, it is still confusingly plural.)
Harry Rogers , Jan 24, 2021 11:29 PM
A couple of notes from history.
After the Vietnam War ended and a number of years later to buy anything in Vietnam you
needed lots of the currency called the Dong.
Gradually it wasn't called the Dong they were called "bricks". When you went to buy you would
ask "How many bricks?". Now a brick was about 100 Dong notes.
After the second world war in Germany some peole actually carried their Recih Marks in a
wheelbarrow when they went to buy something like bread etc.
Today the world debt is $57,917,909,049,231.
The simple thing about debt and money is that its all an illusion created for the benefit
of a robotic universe that needs to believe that the piece of cheap paper I hold in my hand
is of some value.
Also the US owes China owes Russia owes The EU owes Japan owes the UK owes ad infinitum.
See the silliness of it! Ooh lets panic what if China wants it money back ? Um not possible
and anyway its just numbers on a page.
What has real value?? Find out when life becomes live or die.
therevolutionwas , Jan 25, 2021 1:13 PM Reply to Harry
Rogers
Precious metals are not edible or useful unless you consider jewelery and semi-conductors
to be essential items.
Why do gold and silver have "real value"?
bypassing yr lame filter , Jan 25, 2021 2:22 PM Reply to therevolutionwas
Precious metals are not edible or useful unless you consider ornaments and semi-conductors
to be essential items.
Why do gold and silver have "real value"?
The spam fitler (spelling deliberate) here is obviously written by a member of the Borg as
you cannot even use words that contain the three letters j,e, and w in succession. Which is
why I had to write "ornaments" instead of the more exact name for shiny things worn as
ornaments.
That's why you should own it in the form of legal tender, such as sovereigns and
britannias.
Tony , Jan 24, 2021 9:08 PM
This is a crappy piece of writing which steals the correct economic analysis of people
like Jim Sinclair, Bill Holter and others, and warps it into the jack/jim (and their one
million aliases) trolling which has blighted OffG for months. This was obvious when it
appeared as a series of btl's recently. If anyone wants the full picture, they just have to
watch Bill and Jim's videos on youtube and elsewhere, where they make it abundantly clear
that this is a globalist problem, the people behind it don't fly flags, and they are only
interested in power through money and economic control.
Arby , Jan 24, 2021 1:26 PM
"This is what I think 'The Great Reset' really is about. It is being painted as something
intricate and nefarious on every level " The focus is narrow (but I appreciated the
interesting information) and, it seems to me, the author is here expressing an awareness of
that flaw. There's lots of speculation here as well and while I have no problem with that, a
humble approach would involve the admission of that fact. Why was Japan reluctant to jump on
the mankind-killing bandwagon? The author cites disaffection on the part of the Japanese
population. That tracks. But we also know that Japan wanted to have their Olympics and
thought that maybe they still could. Is Maribel certain that that wasn't the case? It wasn't
the Japanese people who turned on a dime. It was the government. The Japanese government
finally realized that the Olympics, which it wanted (for the prestige and the economic
repercussions of that I suppose), were not going to go ahead. On a dime, it suddenly viewed
corona as a super dangerous mankind-destroying bug and issued proclamation after proclamation
in its sudden supercharged flight down the road of fascism. Until then, while it acknowledged
the (non existent) Sars CoV 2 / covid 19 reality, it was not bothered by it.
Don't agree with everything you said, but nevertheless an informative article and firms up
much of what Catherine Austin Fitts has been saying: https://www.bitchute.com/video/RpRAvjoxVDCQ/
Tom , Jan 24, 2021 10:49 AM
"Whereas China is preferring to just stop testing, and ignore the 'crisis' altogether,
except for the odd statement about how dangerous it all is."
Maribel, can you list a reference showing China has stopped or reduced testing?
See comments below by others regarding PCR testing in China.
Sarah Jones , Jan 24, 2021 10:27 AM
They have prevented new relationships from beginning and erased those kids. It is genocide
from the ground up. Even couples are not likely to have kids under such uncertainty. The very
opposite of their claim of "saving lives". Those that do are being abused more than before
with masks during child birth and keeping the father out. Their relationship being sabotaged
with trauma from the beginning and then further trauma and destruction of the family with
parents involved in assaulting kids with "vaccines".
Sarah Jones , Jan 24, 2021 11:10 AM Reply to Sarah
Jones
Jeanice Barcelo explains how hospital birth is ritual trauma abuse to destroy the family
and how ultrasound is to destroy the eggs inside those babies so they are targetting a
generation ahead. It is satanists/ abortionists/ psychopaths behind covid not economists. It
is trauma to harm love and damage those kids and their future relationships to induce further
trauma. They said toilet paper was selling out as an inside joke about the young jerking off
to porn during "lockdown" and "social distancing".
Abortion is just fine if you want your ethnic group annihilated and erased from the face
of the earth.
Isaiah 3:12 (MCV) As for my people, children are their oppressors (infantile Cultural
Marxists), and women (Marxist feminists) rule over them. O my people, they which lead thee
cause thee to err, and destroy the way of thy paths.
theobalt , Jan 24, 2021 4:22 AM
China would "humiliate" the US in a war? That's just like a girl to worry about making a
dent on ego and overlooking a few dents on the planet How's it going in your basement darling
We're all suspended to your words and your little heart and your little brain all memory no
processor
" ..a proxy war with Russia or a direct war with Iran would precipitate a dollar collapse,
rather than create growth and a flight to 'safety'. China would no doubt gleefully humiliate
the US during such a conflict. "
The war would not be with China. During a conflict with Iran or proxy with Russia the US
is economically vulnerable to China's financial sabotage.
No time for a war with anybody . time to stop buying slavery products from China. China
and the cabal already humiliate everyone by corrupting our politicians. Not the US
The USA's Corporate elites, including Trump moved their manufacturing plant and expertise
to China to exploit their cheap labour, nobody forced them.
It was Corporate greed & vanity that caused the surrender of American manufacturing
power to China. American's thought they were superior to China but they have made themselves
her bitch.
Not even a war could save them now, unless they intended to have their military's spare
parts Fedexed over from China, during the conflict.
Also if China's economy were switch to a war footing, like a sleeping giant, it would dwarf
even the USA's military in a very short time, their capacity is the biggest in the world.
David Homer , Jan 25, 2021 4:12 PM Reply to Z=Anon
You are correct in everything except you have forgotten the fact that China imports most
of its iron ore, copper, aluminum, coal, oil, etc. They would be in trouble in a world war
situation.
messenger charles , Jan 25, 2021 4:38 PM Reply to David
Homer
They will invade Australia and New Zealand first in order to secure those minerals and
rely upon Russia for oil and gas.
theobalt , Jan 24, 2021 3:51 AM
What to do with our lives
Find food eat the food when you feel pressure download the
shit down
Anyone trying to prevent you to do any of those things, murder them
Tim Glover , Jan 24, 2021 3:35 AM
I haven't read the 487 comments so apologies, but the author seriously undermines their
argument by suggesting that the virus is a hoax. Exaggerated, yes, hoax, quite obviously not.
I have no doubt that there is truth in this article, but claiming that the virus does not
exist at all is untenable; the author should remove their blinkers and align their theory
with reality.
Tim, I used to think like you, but the original evidence has been extrapolated beyond all
reason by Con-19 artists. So now we must be pedantic and ask for evidence:
a. That the RNA fragments originally sequenced by Chinese scientists in Wuhan (not from a
virus but from patients bodily fluids) all belonged to a single strain of virus, putatively
named Covid-19 but never isolated for sequencing of a complete viral genome?
b. That the Covid-19 was exceptionally deadly; bearing in mind that the Chinese figures
for death among severely ill patients were comparable to normal U$ figures for death among
patients hospitalized with normal annual flu.
c. That the original Covid-19 strain is still extant? (assuming there actually was a
Covid-19 in Wuhan, which is not proven)
d. Assuming the orriginal Wuhan strain has died out (mutated), where is the evidence that
its mutant progeny are more deadly than the original Wuhan strain was ie, not much.
e. Last and most important, where is the evidence that the Westminster con artists
(Con-911, Con-WMD, Con-Viagra, Con-Sarin, Con-Novijoke) are not lying this time ? their lips
are moving.
I know from my personal experience that there is a new strain of virus, because I, and
many of my friends were seriously ill with it and 2 people died. many of the people affected
had no connection to each other. That this is not simply an unconnected anecdote is clear
from looking at the data which show that across the world there was a clear spike in
mortality in spring (The UK committed mass manslaughter in care homes but this is not the
case in other countries). It does not matter where it originated, or whether the genome has
been sequenced. I know the PCR test is useless. I know that there is hype, fear mongering and
exaggeration. I know masks don't work and lockdowns will kill more than they save by a wide
margin. Nonetheless, the virus is real.
Mike Ellwood (Oxon UK) , Jan 24, 2021 8:43 PM Reply to Tim
Glover
Whereabouts do you liveTim? I still don't know anybody who has been ill with supposed
Covid-19 ever since the "Pandemic" began, let alone, know anyone who died from it.
Were the other people who were ill, and especially the 2 who died, particularly old,
and/or did they have other serious health conditions?
And how do you know what you had was the "new strain"? The "new strain" is fairly new,
isn't it? Those poor souls must have died fairly quickly after contracting it.
And how many is "many"?
And how do you know that it wasn't "normal" flu? This is the flu season, after all,
assuming you live in the northern hemisphere. Flu can be quite dangerous too.
@Tim Glover: "I know from my personal experience that there is a new strain of virus,
because I, and many of my friends were seriously ill with it".
How do you know that the flu virus which made you and your friends "seriously ill" was
Covid-19?
I asked someone in England the same question at the start of the Con-19 hype last winter:
How did she know that her friend in the countryside and her relative in London, both of whom
told her they had it and it was their worst flu ever, had escaped death from a specific
headline-news "novel virus Covid-19", when there was so much boring ordinary flu about?
"Voila le Anglais avec son sang froid habituel (Here comes the Englishman with his usual
bloody cold)" -- Fractured French.
gary orlando , Jan 25, 2021 5:35 AM Reply to Tim
Glover
Tim, you have NO CLUE WHAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT. "i WAS SERIOUSLY ILL" is an extremely
ignorant piece of so called evidence. there is NO NEW VIRUS. and virus DO NOT CAUSE ILLNESS
AND contagion is a myth. it IS ALL A lie. you are brainwashed.
therevolutionwas , Jan 25, 2021 1:23 PM Reply to Tim
Glover
Virus's are real and will remain real. They kill susceptible people all the time. And with
the lock down there are more people not carrying on with their normal lives, not eat right,
not getting enough sun, etc ..
Something is happening but you don't know what it is – do you, Mr Jones?
– B Dylan
You have a currently accepted narrative that saves you from questioning your current
worldview.
I don't think it helps to argue 'it is real!
Or it isn't real!
People are dying every day – and by far the most are dying in the ways they generally
do. WHO benefits for the official narratives?
That health as as joy in being as well as resilience to toxic stress and exposures, has an
arena of personal and collective responsibility is of course true.
So far you haven't felt to look into those who are offering excellent witness to the lack
of established facts at the basis of an incomprehensibly disproportionate coordinated
reaction that represents a hijacking of living selves – not cells.
So you are confident that because Dr WHO and the whole pharmaceutical establishment back
you up, you can state 'the virus is real', as part of an extremely invested establishment of
social and corporate identity in its theory.
A positive result and diagnosis for terminal cancer can operate a nocebo death sentence on
its recipient even if the test is in error.
This is similar to what is being perpetrated on the public mind – regardless whether
for private reasons great or small.
When dealing with the dissociated, one cannot simply tell them their experience is unreal.
Thus no one can tell the so called sheep to 'wake up'. No can I tell such woke people to stop
projecting and restore their recognition of another's presence – just because.
Joel Walbert , Jan 24, 2021 5:54 AM Reply to Tim
Glover
Zero evidence anywhere in the world of sars-cov2 having been isolated. Claims of such are
not evidence of it. Numerous FOIA requests in various places provided no evidence of
isolation. A CDC document states there is no isolated virus and that is in fact a computer
generation. People being sick and dying does not even almost prove a virus
messenger charles , Jan 24, 2021 11:30 AM Reply to Joel
Walbert
What they have allegedly 'isolated' has not been purified, and THAT is the crucial element
to this issue. All their 'papers' are a fraud.
That is precisely my point. The document I was referring to states clearly there are no
isolates and that the testing is based off computer generated sequences. I generally would
believe nothing from the CDC but when one of their own official documents admits fraud on a
grand scale, I feel I must trust that one. Its all about discernment.
The CDC document is titled,
CDC 2019-Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Real-Time RT-PCR Diagnostic Panel.
It is dated July 13, 2020. On page 39, in a section titled,
"Performance Characteristics,"
"Since no quantified virus isolates of the 2019-nCoV are currently available, assays
[diagnostic tests] designed for detection of the 2019-nCoV RNA were tested with characterized
stocks of in vitro transcribed full length RNA "
Agreed. My friend is COO of big US pvt hospital group..he told me last April that their
hospitals(over 200) were near EMPTY and he was laying off staff left and right. Last Dec he
said their census was .." about normal for a flu season"..ie, no piles of bodies, no over
crowding.. ie, no real pandemic.
Fred762 , Jan 25, 2021 7:48 PM Reply to Joel
Walbert
USmonthly death totals from all causes have been FLAT for 5 years . therefore, NO
PANDEMIC
Joel Walbert , Jan 26, 2021 12:46 AM Reply to Fred762
Exactly. There are shockingly lower deaths from virtually all causes this past year
though. Fraudulent death certificates are the pandemic, not a computer generated viral
sequence.
Jacques , Jan 24, 2021 6:04 AM Reply to Tim
Glover
The virus IS a hoax. Some people say that viruses do not exist at all. Dunno. Even if they
do, the fairy tale of SARS-CoV-2 is complete bullshit.
Nobody has ever been able to present the alleged virus in an isolated form. The alleged
virus has never been proved to cause a disease. Period. If you or anyone claim that
SARS-CoV-2 exists, let me fucking see it. If you or anyone claim that the alleged SARS-CoV-2
causes the alleged diseases COVID-19, prove it. There are procedures for that. Such as Koch's
postulates.
None of that is done, therefore SARS-CoV-2 & COVID-19 must be considered a crock of
shit until proven otherwise. No data from the world over suggest that there is a pandemic.
End of story. That's your reality. Period.
messenger charles , Jan 24, 2021 11:19 AM Reply to Tim
Glover
The so-called virus has NOT been isolated nor has it, more importantly, been purified.
Sars Cov 2 otherwise known as Covid19 is 100% a lie and a criminal hoax. Research doctors Tom
Cowan, Stefan Lanka and Andrew Kaufman.
Mike Ellwood (Oxon UK) , Jan 24, 2021 8:44 PM Reply to messenger
charles
Also check out the website TheInfectiousMyth.com .
Yes, that man recently passed away but I leaned my foundational anti-COVID myth lessons
from his site as early as March.
Always knew pcr tests were BS.
Never knew a lot of the other COVID info till later.
From his web site or rather what was once his website:
"This was a database and web server owned by David Crowe. From the family of David Crowe,
we are sorry to share with everyone that David passed away on July 12th, 2020."
Paul Vonharnish , Jan 24, 2021 2:42 PM Reply to Tim
Glover
Hello Tim Glover: I see you've received many down votes for suggesting that a (covid)
virus does exist. Tsk, tsk, tsk I can only help you if you really want to be
helped Just repeat after me:
The Earth is flat.
Gravity is an illusion.
The Sun revolves around the Earth.
The moon is hollow and filled with cheese.
There's a white robed guy watching over everything .
The (above) white robed guy – loves everyone equally
You'll be better soon
messenger charles , Jan 25, 2021 4:26 PM Reply to Paul
Vonharnish
Actually the earth is a fixed globe at the centre of the universe (the pinnacle of God's
creation) with the sun and moon orbiting the earth.
Crikey – with friends like you – who needs enemies!
There are moments in life when a sense of lack can step forth in power and strut the stage
of the world like a giant!
(Yes sarcasm).
You get to set the measure of your receiving but not the timing and the manner of your
rewards. Life is meant to be a surprise!
Do you know what love is?
theobalt , Jan 24, 2021 1:52 AM
Answer to Judith comment below, and my usual type of comment right on the head of that
confusing and propagandist article
You should blow your nose without a tissue. They are full of formaldehyde causes
skin irritation and attacks the nervous system it's a carcinogen too and it comes mainly from
China (and I believe Israel Chemicals is also mainly involved) also avoid bed sheets from
Ikea and Amazon and any made in china (I tested them in TSP concoctions), any cheap furniture
from the likes (fiberboards and pieces of wood stuck together with F. based glue offgasing
like crazy, laundry detergents filled with them to replenish any garment, making sure the
American population remains dumbed down and sick and dying. The US dollar doesn't exist, no
more than the freakin' kopec.
American people exists. American land exists. And they are fine.
But they need to be taken down are they Don't worry people of Europe If it is crushed it
is not to save you. It will go in the same pockets of the people who have been crushing you
for quite a while.
Oh yeah, if you have a properly responsive immune system, your respiratory system will
inflame and clog in a very alarming way from exposure to formaldehyde offgasing rings a
bell?!?!
Raymondo Don Sayo , Jan 24, 2021 1:42 AM
The author was just short of calling opinions other than his own as conspiracy theories
which is a base of ignorance. Too long of a rambling severely narrow minded road is this
article. Lots of good thoughts within.
Maybe you are the controlled op?
The case of Australia, the "Building 7" of the Coronavirus scheme, is a case in point that
entirely supports the author's case, as before we had more than 1000 cases and a handful of
deaths, the government declared it would pump $180 billion into the banks to stabilise them,
including for the first time in history, QE. So it printed all the money and handed it around
just as the graphs of infection were exponential, in mid-March. After that and the lock down
another $130 Billion was laid out for "job keeper", which is only going to hit the fan in
March as 500,000 workers find their jobs have actually disappeared.
But now it's Vaccines that are the growth factory, and everyone is clamouring for them
because otherwise we will remain locked in this prison for years. We can't leave as we won't
be insured and there is no guarantee we'll be allowed to return.
But meanwhile, along with the US, our stock market made record gains this last year.
DYOC.
Sadly I have to entirely disagree with the author when she writes that the Russians
produced an imaginary vaccine against a non-existent virus. It's simply not true – have
a look at this paper about the GE manufacture of SARS hybrid viruses, going on at the WIV
since 2007, and of course in North Carolina under Ralph Baric: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1931312820303024
" $130 Billion was laid out for "job keeper", which is only going to hit the fan in March
as 500,000 workers find their jobs have actually disappeared."
What is this end of March timeline even in Australia ? It's the same here in the UK when
the furlough period ends ? Am I missing something ?
Hi Grafter Here's what most of us missed..
Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko said via Belarusian Telegraph Agency, BelTA., that
World Bank and IMF offered him a bribe of $940 million USD in the form of "COVID RELIEF AID."
In exchange for $940 million USD, the World Bank and IMF demanded that the President of
Belarus:
• imposed "extreme lockdown on his people"
• force them to wear face masks
• impose very strict curfews
• impose a police state
• crash the economy
Belarus President Aleksandr Lukashenko REFUSED the offer and stated that he could not accept
such an offer and would put his people above the needs of the IMF and World Bank. This is NOT
a conspiracy. You may research this yourself. He actually said this!
Now IMF and World Bank are bailing out failing airlines with billions of dollars, and in
exchange, they are FORCING airline CEOs to implement VERY STRICT POLICIES such as FORCED face
masks covers on EVERYONE, including SMALL CHILDREN, whose health will suffer as a result of
these policies.
And if it is true for Belarus, then it is true for the rest of the world! The IMF and World
Bank want to crash every major economy with the intent of buying over every nation's
infrastructure at cents on the dollar!!!
Which would tend to confirm what the Article stated??
Exactly what was running through my mind while reading this article
j. d. , Jan 23, 2021 10:41 PM
Your post is thorough and revealing – and counter-narrative, so it might get
shadow-banned
It is disappointing to realize that not only mainstream opinion, but also both sides of
the political aisle have pushed the idea that the economy faltered after covid was declared
an emergency. However, that's clearly not the case, as your article details.
Coventry League Capital Partners, a finance firm, also posted a blog way back in April
2020 that included a mishmash of tweets/posts from throughout 2019 about a pending financial
crisis given mass layoffs in some markets, an inverted yield curve, and bank liquidity
issues. If interested, below is the address to the article:
By September of 2019, the U.S. financial market was in full-blown crisis mode with massive
"repo" operations initiated by the Federal Reserve Bank (FED). Another blogger that provided
exhaustive detail in a series of real-time blog posts about the 2019 repo situation and
financial crisis is "Wall Street On Parade."
Are you two living in the same house with ten others?
Helen , Jan 23, 2021 10:41 PM
Interesting but fails to account for the original Wuhan theatre where China, against all
previously recognised pandemic planning, sold lockdown to the West. They did so restricting
it to one city and limiting overall damage to their economy. A kind of "how to"
demonstration. You also have their main western satellites, NZ and Australia the only ones to
have followed the Zero Covid policy of the CCP – a technique of pure tyranny.
China's CCP ended COVID charade in April by eliminating flawed PCR test as unreliable
diagnostic tool for COVID infections in individual clinical diagnosis of COVID disease which
definition was narrowed to initial interpretation as Unexplained (by long known before 2020
viral or bacterial presence), pneumonia for original interpretation as caused by long known
local environmental factors including man made factors like deadly therapies, medical
particle and wave diagnostic device malfunctions or inherent designer flaws as well as cases
of immunodeficiency or autoimmunity in pneumonia patients.
In other words COVID patient in China is not one who was PCR tested positive but one with
a documented form of pneumonia-like damage to lungs.The seasonal increase in in flu and
explained and unexplained pneumonia is behind recent new quarantine measures in China.
and still China plays this COVID game as it is too desirable to hold big stick of COVID in
their hands amid economic collapse programmed by reset.
PCR and serology is being used in China for general Epidemiological models not
specifically for COVID but for general epidemic situation assessment of all respiratory
diseases flu, common cold and pneumonia that are at local epidemic levels throughout the year
getting worse in winter season.
Last year mild season in China 75,000+ people died of flu, 5,000 officially died of COVID.
Do your math. It was much ado about nearly nothing, while real crisis of old people
needlessly dying of poverty, lack of medical access driven flu is ignored as nobody among
governments gives a damn as it cannot be sold as apocalypse to scare people into
submission.
Rumplestiltskin , Jan 24, 2021 3:09 AM Reply to Kalen
Great comment Kalen, interesting info re China not using the PCR to diagnose CV,
particularly since they sold an absolute shit ton of them to Australia via the mining magnate
what's his name. If we can break the governments reliance on the PCR test, this whole charade
collapses. Ive been saying this for months.
Superb comment- it is easier to point towards a bogeyman 'over there' or some exotic event
(bat cave) than to face the hard fact that the daemon is in your house and staring you right
in the face.
That wasn't followed in all of Australia really only Victoria and WA who got hyper excited
after the initial burst of enthusiasm qld has been more damaged by the planes not arriving
rather than any thing much needing locked up those important minerals we sell had to keep
moving I suspect plus we had a looming election which seemed to put the breaks on too much
enthusiasm so we just shut our border and went on with life until recently when we showed
signs of wanting to play that rush to the head seems to have stalled in Brisbane.,,
doesn't of course stop the believers carrying on around one .
and in my opinion the whole wuhan thing was so staged to make me question of any of it was
real,,,they either exported fear or thought they were actually under attack themselves given
those war games were held in wuhan
For 6 weeks since the alleged outbreak in Wuhan the residents of Wuhan were moving freely
around the rest of China but this virus never really showed up anywhere else in China apart
from Wuhan apart from the odd isolated outbreak that quickly vanished.
This doesn't tie in with a super spreading infectious virus.
Every so often the CCP will say there are small localised outbreaks and puff by magic they
quickly disappear.
It's just CCP propaganda and keeping their toe dipped in the water.
rraa , Jan 23, 2021 10:11 PM
I don't think the Chinese government is involved. People seem to think of China as one
giant homogenous BLOB that moves like a well oiled machine. In fact, regions have a LOT of
autonomy. I don't doubt that some individual Chinese scientists contributed to the Western
narrative. Remember that China overhauled it's entire medical system after Sars 2003. It has
a very modern and transparent pneumonia and respiratory illness surveillance system and all
the alphabet agencies of the West know what is going on it.
WHO published a notice on December 31 that was a very routine notice.
The whole thing took a life of it's own after four cases were reported in one day around Dec
26. If you read the very first paper with the virus sequence on Jan 11, it only mentioned a
novel coronavirus. But almost simultaneously a second paper was published with Edward Homes
as a co-author, the one with the batwoman scientist. This was the one that made the wild
claims about the virus being linked to bats and so on.
No I am not a CCP troll, I've been following the medical and scientific articles from the
beginning and trying to keep track of where the narratives emerged from.
China only locked down about 4% of its population. They did so because it was just before the
New Year and half a billion people were about to travel. Wuhan is a major rail hub. They
didn't want a repeat of Sars 2003. Even the Chinese in Wuhan were terrified by the Western
media. They don't live in some dark cave as the Western media would have you believe.
Nor does Beijing control every research institute and every research project in China as some
people seem to imagine it does. I don't think the virus "came from a lab" because if you read
the actual papers, you find the "new" virus is nothing more than a statistical result. It's
literally a software output, not something in a test tube.
I don't doubt thought that Fauci and Co were funding projects at the Wuhan lab so they could
scapegoat it for this theatre.
rraa – the actual papers that you write of that state a "new virus", are they the
papers that Drosten based his papers on? And the subsequent pcr fiasco?
The statistical result in the Chinese paper – was that based on the 4 cases?
I find what you wrote very interesting. It never occurred to me that the virus did not
come from the lab, but from just having been written about in a paper. I never believed it
was a virus from nature. (Not looking for an argument here about virus/no such thing –
just want some clarity from rraa)
I heard Dr Tom Cowan talk about this Chinese paper and its trip to Germany. But at that
point I thought it must have been the gain of function work in the US funded Wuhan lab.
Thanks.
Tomoola Sitchin , Jan 24, 2021 1:02 AM Reply to Judith
The Chinese provided a computer model of the virus, which Drosten has supposedly used to
configure his version of the PCR test, which is now used the world over.
No one has yet proved that the Sars-cov-2 coronavirus actually exists, other than on a
computer screen. For my money we are having a baddish flu, which has been conveniently
repackaged as Covi-19.
If you take out the mass death event during the 6 week period in March/April that was
brought upon the elders in care homes we are looking at one of the lower mortality rates of
the past two decades.
Those mass deaths were caused by pre-ordained policies, not a viral event, that were an
aberration from past years and in direct opposition of how the medical science states how the
viral season should be addressed for care homes, hospice etc.
I believe the current slight spike in mortality in the UK had been caused by the huge
uptake of flu shots.
The BMJ posted an article recently that flu shots can be successful in protecting against
one strain of influenza but they increase ones susceptibility to contracting other
viruses.
We are now in the middle of respiratory disease season.
Covid has conveniently completely eradicated all other viruses.
Yes it pays to go back and look at the original documents and who was involved there is a
panel the WHO calls together and who was on it and what they were supplied with and who
argued against .from all I ever read it was much to do about little but much convenience for
a range of agenda in which our mate faucci played a big role and has no doubt collected
billions..and never forget it played a big role in US elections and providing a divide
line
what I never quite get is what the UK is actually getting out of playing the game been awful
watching what you guys have done to yourselves.
Tomoola Sitchin , Jan 24, 2021 12:53 AM Reply to rraa
I would guess you are pretty near the mark and 77th Brigade probably think so as well
judging by the down votes.
A few weeks after Event 201, Gao published "A novel coronavirus outbreak of global health
concern" in the Lancet .[ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30185-9/fulltext
] This paper is filled with all of the "scary" buzz-phrases that were used to justify the
hysteria in the US and Europe. The same article featured "Clinical features of patients
infected with 2019 novel coronavirus in Wuhan, China" by all-Chinese authors, with all the
nonsense about bats.[ https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
] Incidentally, it also says, "A novel coronavirus, which was named 2019-nCoV, was isolated
then from lower respiratory tract specimen and a diagnostic test for this virus was developed
soon after that." I'm not saying whether that's true or not, but that's the claim. The claim
is based on the referred paper "A Novel Coronavirus Genome Identified in a Cluster of
Pneumonia Cases -- Wuhan, China 2019−2020," authored in part by, who else? George Gao .
[ http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/a3907201-f64f-4154-a19e-4253b453d10c
]
China also served up some cartoonish snuff films, supposedly depicting the severe effects
of "Covid" and the draconian "lockdown" measures supposedly in response. This was exactly the
role scripted for China in the 2010 Rockefeller Lock Step "Scenario" report.
C'mon, man. Chinese government not involved? Grow up.
Maxwell , Jan 24, 2021 3:55 AM Reply to Fact
Checker
You would be hard pressed to illustrate that George Gao has any allegiance to China or the
Chinese people any more than you could prove the same for Fauci, Farrar, Elias (respective
countries and people) or any number of high profile technocrats.
In all cases their allegiance is to their ideology and big business.
We know this as the PCR test was designed by Drosten in the absence of having any virus
and the full genomic sequencing was done by Drosten going through the genomic database of
previous coronaviruses picking out bits and pieces of RNA sequences through sheer guesswork
and then adding on the theoretical RNA sequences supplied by the Chinese.
Drosten doesn't even deny he created the test with no virus available.
A week or so later China supplied the full genomic sequencing from the virus 'isolated' in
a human and it was exactly the same as Drostens computerised virus.
Oh the Chinese government is not involved? The Chinese government doesn't exist it is an
extension of the cabal. The Chinese people exist and they are being killed and enslaved by
their "Government" and it is a system that Rockefeller liked soooo much that he wants to
replicate it all over the world Biden is not American, Biden is CCP of America.
Wayne Vanderploeg , Jan 23, 2021 10:01 PM
This was a favorite on the Ray Rayner show in the Chicago area in the 60s. Or was it, "A
Fly Went By". No, It was the old lady one
Ben , Jan 23, 2021 10:00 PM
UK Government quietly changes law to give councils lockdown powers until July 17th, 2021.
At the same time, revelers at a party in Kensington are confronted by police, but no fines
issued. And Conservative MPs in Wales resign after discovered drinking in a pub whilst under
Drakeford's pub ban order
Politicians are inflicting lockdown misery on their electorate but breaking the rules
themselves because they know 'Covid' is a scam
A new 'ap' (for which you pay) can be added to your smartphone. The app enables users to
create a representation of their body structure in the form of a 3D avatar, with
accurate circumference measurements and total body fat assessment.
Heathtech company MyFiziq Limited has developed a dimensioning technology that enables its
users to check, track and assess their dimensions using a smartphone, from the comfort of
their home. The app enables users to create a representation of their body structure in the
form of a 3D avatar, with accurate circumference measurements and total body fat
assessment.
And here is the bait – "Associated company Bearn is unique in that it awards one
penny for each active calorie burned, enabling users to earn hundreds of dollars a year just
for staying healthy and making healthy choices."
Biomorphik (ie buy more) is a behavioural change company with a key goal being to
improve the health and wellness of people at a whole-of-society level through better
creation, measurement, storage, analysis, and access to data.
In other words, it is data-mining, disguised as keeping your healthy – to be used
against you in the future social credit system they are designing. At present, you are
rewarded for losing excess fat, but in the future you will be punished if you do not keep up
with the 'health' regime they have set for you.
Since this ap went on the market, the public demand has outstripped the supply, it is so
popular. Beware, I think it is a trap.
Reggie , Jan 23, 2021 9:10 PM
But the author is assuming that US wants to keep the dollar hegemony. I'm not so
sure about that. I think it's obvious that US's leaders are globalists and they want to see
the dollar die, in favor of a virtual world currency that they can use to manipulate the
sheep to their heart's content.
I also think the forced vaccinations, etc., ARE a primary reason for this fraud. The
pharma folks are globalists and forced vaxxes are their wet dream. And I do think that the
Bill Gay agenda of vaxxes does have something to do with his dream of population reduction,
and that's a globalist consensus, it's not just Bill's idea.
Eric McCoo , Jan 23, 2021 8:35 PM
It's obvious from its extremely defensive stance now and at the start that China is
involved.
In my view this is ultimately about digital ID and a Chinese style social credit system.
Some people might remember the UK government pushing a universal ID a number of years ago.
Scrapped in 2011.
'Identity cards were scrapped in 2011 – they're no longer valid and you can't use
them as proof of identify.
Mike Ellwood (Oxon UK) , Jan 23, 2021 9:41 PM Reply to Eric
McCoo
That's weird; I never had one. How many people got one? I'm talking about what must have
been modern ones (presumably issued by the Blair government, although I thought their plans
for ID cards had never got off the ground).
Actually, I'm old enough to have got a paper/card identity card, issued by the post-war
Labour government. I think I still have it somewhere. The number on that card became your NHS
number (although NHS numbers were revamped many years later).
Mike Ellwood (Oxon UK) , Jan 24, 2021 9:09 PM Reply to Eric
McCoo
Thanks for that. I wasn't aware of the partial rollout. I clearly wasn't paying sufficient
attention at the time!
Jeffrey Strahl , Jan 23, 2021 8:08 PM
And i didn't even see this.
"The details of the implementation of the Covid operation aside, it is possible that many
inside the system regard the 'Great Reset' as not a conspiracy to oppress us, to exploit us
and destroy our lives in a Marxist tyranny as many believe, but rather regard it as a
necessary adjustment to an unbalanced economic system.
To see it like that we must believe that the current system is fundamentally flawed and that
good faith solutions are being sought. I think 'The Reset' is seen by many honest brokers
around the world as a genuine platform to resolve flaws in the current world economy, and to
manage a transition from the dollar, in a controlled fashion. We should not always think the
worst motives of everyone involved."
Right! 🙂 We need to be adjusted to total remote control, social impact investing, ..
I'm sorry i gave this one 3 stars. 0 is what it rates.
Doctortrinate , Jan 23, 2021 8:34 PM Reply to Jeffrey
Strahl
as sending young naive men into a 300 machine gun wall of hell – was an unfortunate
miscalculation again and again and again.
theobalt , Jan 24, 2021 2:08 AM Reply to Doctortrinate
reference on this?
Doctortrinate , Jan 24, 2021 4:13 AM Reply to theobalt
parallels are ruthlessly profuse. Look to the Somme offensive.
I don't know how old you are but your education seems sadly lacking if you constantly have
to ask for references? Did you miss the lesson where you were taught to research?
My Grandson age 10 had just completed a term on WW! prior to lockdown, and here is a piece he
researched.
If these people in the money markets had not gotten into derivatives, tax avoidance
foundations, hedge coys etc I suspect we wouldn't be in this mess .the very people now
wanting socially responsible investment, save the planet etc are the very ones who created
the financial meltdowns and someone wants to tell me I should pay for all this
May Hem , Jan 23, 2021 10:16 PM Reply to Sarah
Jones
Thank you Sarah, for this valuable information. "Gaslighting" is the technique now being
used by mainstream media and the virtual virus planners to confuse and control us. And so
clearly explained by this video.
We need to be aware of these techniques so we can defend and keep our sanity.
One of the signs of the sociopath is a refusal to take responsibility. This reminds me of
the vaccine makers, and their refusal to take any form of responsibility for any damage
caused by their products.
theobalt , Jan 24, 2021 2:15 AM Reply to Sarah
Jones
it is not only a psyop it is real businesses closed, real people starving and not getting
medical care, real grandma's hearts broken, real people deprived of essential human contact.
It is a mass murder operation. Solution? A deadly vaccine experiment that will control the
killing of more But it will advance medical science to make valuable med for the remaining
500 mill I'm not trying to scare you dear I'm trying to get you on board
awildgoose , Jan 23, 2021 10:05 PM Reply to Jeffrey
Strahl
Precisely.
The entire point of the Confucius Institutes was to study Western culture and what makes
it tick.
The Chinese have understood that the West is filled with hysterical, hypochondriac
people.
They have exploited this understanding masterfully.
It would appear that China had a lot of help from dr Bruce alyward, a Canadian who by even
a small glimpse of his work trail suggests plenty of involvement with any number of gates
follies a short listen to his enthusiasm for wuhan methodology and his being convinced it was
going to kill millions makes the bloody run cold he is also fond of graphs etc. so no doubt
Ferguson fits in here somewhere and by the way he cites that many younger people were dying
in China, not just old folk he quite specifically says it isn't just an oldies disease so I
wonder what happened when it arrived on other shores obviously it transformed only to take
out the relatively old at end of average life so he was obvious fooled, mislead or just
whatever on his visit to fact find in China .it would seem he was most responsible for all
this carryon
Jeffrey Strahl , Jan 24, 2021 8:08 PM Reply to Edith
China got a lot of help. From the WHO, from Big Pharma, from Big Tech, from the mass media
(which are heavily tied into Big Pharma and Big Tech). That letter and Ivor's video go into
that.
Resistance needs to be organised to have any effect. Unions would have been best, but
they've been compromised
May Hem , Jan 24, 2021 3:19 AM Reply to AngryAngry
Great video. Thanks AA. Will share this around. I would much rather focus on solutions
rather than arguing where the virtual virus started.
Sarah Jones , Jan 23, 2021 7:35 PM
An apple a day keeps the covid away.
AngryAngry , Jan 23, 2021 7:34 PM
So, after watching Katherine Austin Fitts interview you thought it might be a good idea to
throw a few half truths, sound credible, add a few charts and make us believe a communist
take over/ depopulation/ creating an operating system in humans with a back door had never
been an elite plan for us cattle. How did OG let you in?
Ernest Judd , Jan 23, 2021 8:02 PM Reply to AngryAngry
Is this diatribe being addressed to the author of the article?
Researcher , Jan 23, 2021 8:45 PM Reply to Ernest
Judd
Get a new name. This one isn't valid. And stop using words I use. It's tiresome. Your
vocabulary is lacking but that shouldn't stop you from occasionally consulting a
thesaurus.
theobalt , Jan 24, 2021 2:26 AM Reply to Researcher
Oh madame
theobalt , Jan 24, 2021 2:25 AM Reply to Ernest
Judd
I hope it is
Researcher , Jan 23, 2021 9:01 PM Reply to AngryAngry
Yes. They've been here everyday trolling the comments and they reformulated the 77th
script from "America did it" to this nonsensical screed.
Some of their initial attempts at diversionary tactics included attacking Dr. Reiner
Fuellmich, Bobby Kennedy Jnr, James Corbett and claiming US corporations and specifically,
tort laws were destroying upstanding European corporations like Bayer, VW, Deutsche Bank and
RBS. Fraudsters, polluters, money launderers and poisoners were now victims of the big bad US
of A. Who knew?
All of this to divert from the NGOs such as the WHO, UN, World Bank, BIS, IMF, WEF in
collusion with 197 governments and 1,000 corporations forcing Agenda 21 and Agenda 2030 onto
the global population under the guise of a pandemic, and rebranding those two agendas as the
Great Reset and the 4th Industrial Revolution. (4th Reich)
theobalt , Jan 24, 2021 2:27 AM Reply to Researcher
'at a girl
theobalt , Jan 24, 2021 2:23 AM Reply to AngryAngry
Yeah. The number of short stops and "it might be" or it's possible that" when ever the
narrative leads to actual truth that this direction is a tissue of anti-US bs is certainly an
indication
Sam - Admin2 , Jan 24, 2021 2:45 AM Reply to AngryAngry
It's a perspective. Perspectives can be useful.
theobalt , Jan 24, 2021 4:15 AM Reply to Sam -
Admin2
I can't honestly use this one for anything valuable from my perspective
-CO , Jan 23, 2021 7:31 PM
For those of you who dwell on the perpetrators of the planned scamdemic here's a few apt
biblical quotes to consider and meditate upon if you feel so inclined.
"For our struggle is not against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the
powers, against the world forces of this darkness, against the spiritual forces of wickedness
in the heavenly places." Ephesians 6:12.
Politicians + so-called "scientific advisors" and other gutless officials in positions of
power knowing of the fraud and deception and doing nothing to remedy it and using the just
following orders excuse:
"Ye are of the devil, as your father, and ye desire to do the lusts of your father. He was
a murderer from the beginning, and standeth not in the truth, because there is no truth in
him. When he speaketh a lie, he speaketh of his own: for he is a liar, and the father
thereof."
John 8:44
Lux et veritas
Moneycircus , Jan 23, 2021 7:24 PM
Eight marriages, 87 years but it was the Covid what got Larry King or at least it was with
him or came after him or something.
AngryAngry , Jan 23, 2021 7:35 PM Reply to Moneycircus
Took 91 year old Caprice Grandmother first – tragic💉💉💉
Researcher , Jan 23, 2021 10:27 PM Reply to AngryAngry
Oh Caprice. That ho' who was on that sho'.
Ernest Judd , Jan 23, 2021 8:03 PM Reply to Moneycircus
He died of old age.
Wayne Vanderploeg , Jan 23, 2021 10:08 PM Reply to Ernest
Judd
Exactly. However, a Covid body is worth extra cash. I am sure it must have tested
positive. How could it not. All that cash.
George Mc , Jan 24, 2021 8:43 AM Reply to Ernest
Judd
"Old age" was what they used to call it. We now know it was COVID. All the billions who
died in the past really died of COVID. All the documents of yore will have to be rewritten.
The Bible: Methuselah lived 969 years before he passed with the holy COVID.
Researcher , Jan 23, 2021 9:07 PM Reply to Moneycircus
His health started failing severely before covid and he stopped going to the RT studios in
2019.
It's interesting that they branded King as the first Covid19 famous death. They smeared
his name with a fake cause of death.
Just goes to show being an ass kissing, non journalist doesn't help you after you kick the
bucket.
killing of the king is done most month using numerology and astrology aka ritual via
sacrifice. it how they appease operate
larry KING signed a contract
what did he offer fuck all he took your time and kept the sheep entertained hypnotized.
Wayne Vanderploeg , Jan 23, 2021 10:05 PM Reply to Moneycircus
I was thinking the same thing when I saw it in the news. Fox, I believe. I held my sarcasm
back, though. It was the Down's Syndrome kids that got em Just kidding .
JuraCalling , Jan 23, 2021 10:07 PM Reply to Moneycircus
He invited it on his show as a guest. Brave but crazy.
theobalt , Jan 24, 2021 2:28 AM Reply to Moneycircus
I say the marriages in the times of fake woman's lib psyop is definately a comorbidity
that man is a hero
A bit off topic but just watched this very interesting dialogue between Ryan Christian and
Whitney Webb on Last American Vagabond. Lots of ground covered.
"SolarWinds Hack, Takeover of US,and the Final Stage of the War on You"
Tried to link but it would not copy successfully.
Fact Checker , Jan 23, 2021 9:18 PM Reply to Judith
Thanks for the tip!
Apropos of this article, Webb observes: "People really need to start, especially this
year, paying attention to the World Economic Forum people. If you're in independent media and
you're acting like this is not a trans-national push by the people you claim to be fighting
against, who have now all allied together in this transnational Blob to enslave
us all, c'mon people, get with the program. There's way bigger stuff going on that has way
graver implications than any previous year I've been alive."
Articles like this represent a desperate effort to maintain the illusion of the phony,
antiquated narratives of national rivalries, when the actual actors on the world stage are a
full generation past that.
She also calls out the Yuval Noah Harari's Davos 2020 speech that I've been highlighting,
which is excerpted in the "New Normal" mini documentary. She offers some great insight about
Mr. Harari's unconcealed disdain for the masses, concluding his speech by arguing that "the
elite" need to take hold of the potential of Total Information Awareness surveillance
technology, before "the rats" do!
Judith , Jan 23, 2021 9:55 PM Reply to Fact
Checker
Yes, I've watched Whitney on Last American Vagabond a few times. Mind like a steel
trap.
Today, as you pointed out – well, I've never seen her quite so emphatic. She was
really adamant, beyond just reporting. I found the dialogue very very interesting.
I followed up that interview with the latest James Corbett weekly "Solutions" episode with
Catherine Austin Fitts. Not as deep into the WEF, but certainly touching on the same
subject.
Moneycircus , Jan 24, 2021 5:37 AM Reply to Fact
Checker
If anyone's short of time listen from 20 minutes
Intelligence & organized crime syndicates
Russia as "look, squirrel" straw man for Israeli tech
(when Russia-Israeli tech tycoons are often one and the same)
Transnational corporate networks extend to U.S. tech & defense
Microsoft effectively offshored, embedded in Israel
Cyber attack will be "worse than Covid" -- promises Klaus Schwab
By targeting banks this ushers in new digital "store credit"
Big tech & defense-surveillance capitalists lock down the monetary system.
This year we will segue from Covid to a new hacking/digital scenario. Our saviours will
tell us lockdown has saved us while they ransacked and looted the economy. We will be told to
trust them. Digital ID-monetary system will be the physical aspect of that "trust".
Moneycircus , Jan 24, 2021 7:06 AM Reply to Moneycircus
Maggie , Jan 24, 2021 4:53 PM Reply to Moneycircus
Hi Moneycircus,
So have you any ideas HOW we stop them taking over our money?
Spent my whole life saving bits and bobs to enable us to enjoy a simple retirement and
investing in our Grandchildren's education. And now 'they' are going to steal our money via
the ID-monetary system? Because we will not have the right 'passport' because non of us, my
Husband and I or our children and grandchildren will be vaccinated?
Thank You All for the content and place to have real discussions on what is going on in
the world.
Kovid Krisis is the rich's cntl-alt-del of the world while they cook up a reboot of some
kind or another to save their capitalist empire from oblivion.
A MUST READ so we can all start following the money and talk about radical (root)
solutions.
Jubilee – Public Banking – Tax the Rich to 5x Base Pay – Establish 1x
Regional Base Living Income on 1040 hrs work/yr – Confiscate the World Financial
Digital Shadow Casino Money created in the last 30 years and redistribute equally into a
World Public Banks Trust Fund for each human born on Earth. And so on. Direct Democracy will
also get everyone to participate and create a true self-governing democracy.
Moneycircus , Jan 23, 2021 6:25 PM
Latest UK Column broadcast summarized
here , including this gem: Chatham House masterclass in manipulating public fear , part
of Jan 2019 influenza preparedness conference.
That echoes my thoughts on this completely. Thanks for putting into words what's inside my
head.
pantoufle , Jan 23, 2021 6:07 PM
This is the best explainer I've read so far of this entire disaster. Ties together almost
everything. And it originated in your Comments section. And you had the nous to publish it as
an article. Outstanding.
I used to love The Guardian. But that was many years ago. I never gave them any dough
(funny they never really asked for it in the old days–they didn't seem so desperate
until they became WokeNazis).
I just sent you guys 20 pounds.
theobalt , Jan 24, 2021 2:35 AM Reply to pantoufle
If you gave 20 lbs for this article, you're gonna have to give 1000 for each of the other
ones
tony_opmoc , Jan 23, 2021 5:58 PM
Excellent essay by Maribell Tuff, and whilst I missed it the first time around in the
comments (being serially banned here does have an effect on me), I think most of what he/she
wrote here is most probably true. I note that most of my comments here, no even longer go
into awaiting moderation. They just completely disappear, when I press send.
Where's Catte Black?
Tony
Edwige , Jan 23, 2021 5:26 PM
Venture capital in so-called edtech more than doubled in the last year:
Looks like some very wealthy people know "remote learning" isn't going away anytime
soon.
Roberto , Jan 23, 2021 6:31 PM Reply to Tim
Drayton
Now that's ironic. The principle of equality can only be sustained by force, but 'nature
is more forceful in the return', as observed by Francis Bacon, (albeit referring to the
suppression of habit, it holds true for everything).
There is no such thing as a classless society; in any historic example that's why there have
been Party bosses, nomenklatura, apparatchik, and the peasants, and of course the police
necessary to maintain the status quo with violence, or maybe just intimidation of the
especially meek.
How this succeeds in any example is evident by the result. The peasants always revolt; it
differs how long it takes, and the natural viability and civility of any society is in direct
inverse proportion to the number of police (visible or not) it requires to maintain
control.
With impeccable timing, just after I'd posted the above comments, a colleague sent me a
copy of the guidelines which our company now wants us to follow. Full PPE, endless washing of
hands, checking everyone's temperature every two hours, blah, blah, blah.
It appears that the money-grubbing, heartless wankers who own the company have, all of a
sudden, developed a deep concern for the well-being of the people who live in their
establishments and the staff who work with them. Remarkable, really, considering that they
hadn't previously seemed to give a solitary fuck about us. Praise be!
I shall now spend the rest of the evening feeling like a twat (as a kind of practice run
for tomorrow's shift, when I'll be kitted out in gloves, muzzle and apron).
Or I could just go for the nuclear option of phoning in
sick-of-this-fucking-ridiculous-shit.
You should blow your nose without a tissue. They are full of formaldehyde causes
skin irritation and attacks the nervous system it's a carcinogen too and it comes mainly from
China (and I believe Israel Chemicals is also mainly involved) also avoid bed sheets from
Ikea and Amazon and any made in china (I tested them in TSP concoctions), any cheap furniture
from the likes (fiberboards and pieces of wood stuck together with F. based glue offgasing
like crazy, laundry detergents filled with them to replenish any garment, making sure the
American population remains dumbed down and sick and dying. The US dollar doesn't exist, no
more than the freakin' kopec.
American people exists. American land exists. And they are fine.
But they need to be taken down are they Don't worry people of Europe If it is crushed it
is not to save you. It will go in the same pockets of the people who have been crushing you
for quite a while.
About 6 months ago my father in law ranted to me about how he hopes people never shake
hands again because it's so disgusting. All this talk makes me want to go the opposite
direction and shower less, share more gourds of mate with friends, kiss more people, etc.
That reminds me of the George Carlin bit in which he talks about swimming in a river (the
Hudson?) with his friends when he was a kid and ingesting all manner of nastiness (including
shit). He was of the opinion that this was what had given him an impregnable immune
system.
I can't help but compare that attitude to the nonsense we hear from the germaphobes among
us.
Pardon the vanity or self-indulgence, but this demands that I recycle a comment I posted
at this site last April:
Last month– a lifetime ago– the day after local (Pennsylvania, USA) officials
first announced the onset of the Megadeath Virus of Doom, I insouciantly wandered up to the
nearby supermarket– mostly to buy bagged salad, my one concession to eating produce. I
sailed through the door and stopped short at the sight of a shopping-cart "Trail of Tears";
forlorn customers in a line stretching from the (understaffed) checkout registers to the far
wall of the store, then winding around the corner and up the aisle.
As a retired employee of the state unemployment benefits agency who worked for years in
now-extinct Job Centers, I am familiar with crisis situations when "the lines are going out
the door", and people seem to arrive by the busload. So I turned around to leave. As I did, a
big, burly older man was entering the store; I'd seen him around the area, but we'd never
spoken.
He also stopped short, and said to me, "What's this all about?" I said, "Apparently a lot
of people think the world is coming to an end, and they want to make sure they have the
makings of their last meal." (Not to mention toilet paper for postprandial use.)
The man shook his head and said, "Christ! I played sandlot baseball for years, and the
ball used to get full of dirt, crud and even dog shit once in a while; we just picked it up
and kept on playing!"
I was gratified by this unsolicited validation. Of course, to the pro-pandemic Chicken
Littles, he may have played baseball but he's obviously no "team player".
Don't you remember a few months ago on Fox news across the pond in the land where you're
not free to say happy Xmas ? They carried a piece banning groups of any size singing 'Happy
Birthday'. Apparently the way we pronounce 'P' and ' B' is so forceful it could spray
everywhere with covid.
President Trum endoresd the idea even though it sounded like they were taking the iss.
Ersonally i think it's all ollocks. Still, it was a positive message to see all those poor
victims of a crippling virus stood 'in it together' having a sing along..
Willem , Jan 23, 2021 4:53 PM
One of my comments got deleted in the spam folder. In that comment I specifically
explained my work situation and the fanatics I am dealing with. Perhaps it was therefore
deleted because, even though the anecdote was true, I cannot prove that the anecdote was
true.
Or maybe the comment was just unlucky
Nevertheless, this experience was a good reminder for me that all anecdotes here should be
taken with a grain of salt since we are all anonymous commenters here (and therefore can both
tell true anecdotes or dream them up any way we please: no one can check the true factualness
of the anecdote)
But what I wanted to say can also be said without anecdotal 'evidence' which is this:
In science (any science, being it medical science, political science, economic science,
etc) there is theory and practice. And if the science is a true science, the theory should
always be confirmed by practice. And if practice doesn't follow the theory, the theory should
change.
Unfortunately we live in a topsy turvy world where practice should always follow theory.
And if practice doesn't follow theory it is discarded as an aberration, a chance finding,
unimportant, flawed, unscientific, finding and the theory remains standing unabated.
And this is the reason why we are in this mess. The economy isn't working, because the
theory is flawed, as is medical science on covid (and other diseases), and political science
(on for instance the definition what a democracy is). And all we scientists are supposed to
do is act as if the theory is sound and find confirmation that what should be true according
to theory, is essentially followed by practice.
And this can only be done by either censoring everything that doesn't fit the theory (and
there are many ways to censor) or finding more and more, sort of ontological arguments of why
God must exist.
And the problem with ontological arguments is that they have this fascinating feature of
finding the truth, against the odds, because the truth is so difficult to find (when the
theory is flawed) but still is found in an ontological argument.
This could be yet another reason why in epidemiology the Covid theory stands unabated. It
is difficult to understand, you have to go into great lengths to understand it and finding
the truth can be as difficult as an ontological argument, which can only be found by the
smartest of the smartest scientists. And so it is fun! Because trying to solve puzzles is
fun. Like alchemy
While in reality the truth is not so difficult to find. When I limit myself to covid, here
is a riddle: how can you say that there are excess deaths due to covid, if the average age of
death (81 years in NL) is the same as the average age of death in Covid (82 years)?
If you want to explain that and still hold that the theory stands unabated, you do need an
ontological argument, and this is what some epidemiologists are doing (others just ignore the
riddle, as if it doesn't exist).
And anyone (like me) who is crushing their thoughts and theories, is considered as
Archimedes considered the Roman soldier who was disturbing him on his thoughts on the
circles.
I am aware that this is also an ontological argument where I remain faithful to the idea
that epidemiologists can act rational as in that they do want to distill practice out of a
theory
What if all those epidemiologists are employed by the institutions that are controlled by
the same corporate structures who control the entire field of virology and genetics?
Yeah? try to say "fuck China" get ready for 20 downvotes
ted , Jan 23, 2021 4:31 PM
Very good analysis in my opinion. There has to be a reason for a relatively boring
respiratory season (outside of the few countries where hospitals bring elderly patients to a
somewhat earlier death than would have been the case absent medical intervention) turning
into endless economic suppression through endless lockdown.
Here in the US, the unimaginable levels of direct money transfers to households is fueling
nasty levels of inflation already. As an example, a haircut at my now rebel barber went from
US $18 last march to US $ 25 last week. A new housing bubble mania is taking hold, while
renters are permitted to not pay rent for the foreseeable future allowing more consumer
spending for a dwindling supply of goods and services, hopefully stimulating more hyper
inflation. Grandpa Joe promises 2 trillion more in direct money transfers soon. (remember how
outraged Americans were when Hank Paulson had the audacity to ask for 750 billion in 2008? .
ah the good times of yore).
Given the scale of direct cash transfers to individuals, I take issue with one part of the
argument. The goal here is not to save the dollar but to debase the dollar on a massive
scale. Hyper inflation of the dollar would shrink the value of debts held and promises made,
particularly in the colossal derivatives markets, as these are now obviously unwinding in an
uncontrolled fashion (thus the need for the incredible scale of money printing). The problem
is other currencies are so tied to the dollar that they have no choice but to follow the
American plan, debasing their currencies to try and keep an even footing with the US. This is
the only thing that would explain the EU's zeal for lockdowns that are well in excess of
anything in the US (I am writing from California). The EURO must trade on parity with the
dollar as the banking systems of both regions are deeply intertwined.
We are already seeing the outcome. The burden of planet covid/financial reset will fall
exclusively on the poor and working classes. those who do not have financial assets, while
the nominal wealth of the professional classes explodes (as it is presently doing). Something
like the upstairs/downstairs society of the 19th century is the result. Which is great for
political parties, because they only need to professional classes to win elections, while the
peons, who cannot even vote because they are increasingly not citizens or stripped of
citizenship through incarceration have no voice at all. Dickensian dystopia 21st century
style awaits.
RobG , Jan 23, 2021 4:07 PM
This article, as many others have pointed out, is certainly interesting, particularly how
it deals with the enemies du jour being in lockstep with it all, which is something the covid
believers always point to.
However, I do believe there's something very sinister behind the covid con. I say this
because you only have to look at how they are deliberately trying to destroy all human joy,
creativity and spirituality. Indeed, they are deliberately trying to destroy our human
society that's existed for tens of thousands of years.
Sarah Jones , Jan 23, 2021 6:32 PM Reply to livingsb
covid is a viral infectious disease. it infects people with narcissistic abuse techniques
like triangulation, smear campaigns, blame shifting, hoovering and gaslighting which the
infected individual then spreads further. a ponzi marketing scheme for the fake health system
which turns out to be the biggest destroyer of health made up of psychopaths with only the
very rare medical doctor speaking out tentatively about the narcassistic abuse and
destruction that is covid.
First, as to the article itself. I regard it as an intentional or possibly unintentional
limited hangout. The truthiness part of it is foremost the recognition that the Sept 2019
"repocalypse," with the massive intrusion of the Fed into the interbank lending, marked the
start of the collapse of the life support to the global financial system since early 2009.
The ensuing scamdemic was a diversion to the economic collapse and allowed our Owners to
decimate the fiat currencies through exponential printing, vastly increasing the "legal" debt
ultimately held against the 99.9%. I also give her credit for recognizing the fact that
covid-1984 is a non-existent artifact. I was considering doing a deconstruction of the
incorrect statements of this article, but decided that it was not really worth the hours
involved.
I would simply state that almost every step we are seeing has been planned since before
the official rollout of the Fed in the USA in 1913. One could reasonably build a case that it
dates back to John Dee and Kelly during the reign of the first Elizabeth. The ultimate aim is
to revert the planet to total control under a dystopian, neofeudal technocracy, drastically
cull the population, and to transform the remaining ones into genetically altered cyborgs
whose "minds" are part of the "cloud." The next step in the rollout will be a pseudo crypto
digital currency by all the world's central banks which will be in short order unified into
Earthcoin. This will be a de facto credit against a global company store such as many
sharecroppers and coal miners faced in the USA in past decades. One's means of existence can
be eliminated with the click of a mouse from a slight act of misbehavior, especially
thoughtcrime. In short a three tiered society where 95% will be serfs, 4.99% will be
technicians and enforcers, and the tiny remainder will be the owners. While not a great work
of fiction, The Hunger Games was a good projection of this society. I never bothered
to watch the film.
I wish to give the author thanks for giving me a good laugh with her statement that the
politicians of the world had to be convinced that the gigantic psyops would in the end prove
less disastrous to world's population than just letting the system collapse. As if they are
not also sociopaths who could not care less about the welfare of their constituents.
Hector , Jan 23, 2021 5:18 PM Reply to el
Gallinazo
I would give the films a go. I watched the first one several years ago at my other half's
insistence and was pleasantly surprised at the depth of its themes despite some duff acting.
The second film is also worthwhile but I wouldn't bother with the third and fourth.
Today my local news had a headline quoting our governor comparing our vaccine rollout to
the Hunger Games. I noticed several other states and cities doing the same about their own
vaccine rollout.
2fat2surf , Jan 23, 2021 3:57 PM
It's really quite simple actually. The same folks who did the 911 false flag attack crime
are behind the virus hoax. Their ends have never changed; to acquire power and control (which
they certainly already have) And to use any means no matter how ruthless and murderous to
keep it.
When you control all the money in the world, even if you don't have truth on your side, you
have immense power.
There is something sinister behind this.
JuraCalling , Jan 23, 2021 11:47 PM Reply to 2fat2surf
We know the truth. They know the truth. They have the power. We have nothing .It would
appear that it doesn't matter who has any truth on their side. It's power that shapes the
destiny of a race .
el Gallinazo , Jan 24, 2021 1:21 PM Reply to JuraCalling
"They have the power. We have nothing."
Disagree strongly. We outnumber the innermost cabal by about 7 billion to 1000. Wrap your
head around that. They maintain their power through the transmission depicted on the back of
the USA $1 Federal Reserve Note from the eye on the top down that pyramid. The way to combat
it is for us peons at the ground level of the pyramid to dismantle their transmission system
from the ground up , leaving our emperors eventually without any clothes. If one wishes to
find the savior who will save us, just look in the mirror. To do that successfully, we must
first dismantle their divide and control global psyops.
JuraCalling , Jan 24, 2021 3:17 PM Reply to el
Gallinazo
"Disagree strongly. We outnumber the innermost cabal by about 7 billion to 1000. Wrap
your head around that."
That would be great if it was a "how many people are in your gang" contest.
If 1,000 people are in a face off with 100 people, who has the advantage ?
Now. if that 100 people had machine guns, tanks and grenades, but the 1,000 were unarmed-
who has the advantage. Wrap your head around that.
"They maintain their power through the transmission depicted on the back of the USA $1
Federal Reserve Note from the eye on the top down that pyramid."
Who does. This is a global pandemic to cover a global takeover. Yes -- there's actually a
world outside of America. True story. In the greater scheme of things, America is 'the new
kid'. It's just the loudest and least clever. Does Schwab make his plans based on the US fed
res ?
It doesn't matter if our emperors have no clothes or if they have suits of armour. What
they do have is an arsenal of bio chemical weaponry and poisons along with the various
books of rules they can change on a daily basis that determine where we go, what we do, and
when. And, of course, the list of consequences for those who believe we don't have to.
There's a reason why the 'innermost cabal' are showing no fear against the vast
numbers that oppose it. And it's not bravery or stupidity.
Forget the 99.99% Vs 00.01%. Imagine a few hundred who are running the Covid scam
and vaccine poisoning programme and the couple of million opposing it. They are
continuing. The opposition, in the meantime, is living on the internet posting 'truth's and
pictures of Hitler.
Fact Checker , Jan 24, 2021 10:03 PM Reply to JuraCalling
" America is 'the new kid'. It's just the loudest and least clever."
Not the first time you've made me LOL, Jura, and I'm sure it won't be the last. To the
quick you cut.
George Mc , Jan 23, 2021 3:50 PM
Just caught some more mainstream pish on how Fauci blamed his "country's ineffective
pandemic response on an American "anti-science bias." He called this bias "inconceivable,"
because "science is truth."
Thus spake Zarafauci!
He also "compared those discounting the importance of masks and social distancing to
"anti-vaxxers" in their "amazing" refusal to listen to science."
Fauci IS Science!
Meanwhile Adrian Bardon, professor of philosophy, is amazed at Fauci's amazement at this
rejection of The Mighty Science, saying that "Denial is Everywhere"!
Ah well only one solution: a little brain operation to make everyone "see the Truth"!
Bob -Enough now , Jan 23, 2021 5:05 PM Reply to George
Mc
So Fauci stated "science is truth." – but that is what makes "Fauci" a charlaton
in the eyes of real scientists; science is ever changing, evolving, ever questioned, enhanced
and even proved incorrect. Today's theories (what he believes to be the truth), will be
smiled upon in the future.
Mike Ellwood (Oxon UK) , Jan 23, 2021 6:15 PM Reply to Bob
-Enough now
Yes one could keep wondering why anyone listens to that little man .how do these people
get to be the man of the moment he was there for the aids story and back for this game how
knows how many billion he has made from these games. Or why on earth anyone regards anything
he says as sane let alone science
JuraCalling , Jan 23, 2021 11:59 PM Reply to George
Mc
He's the leader of the pack for Scientism. Him and Gates the two-headed snake.
They believe if it can be quantified / measured. expressed in data- it's real. Anything
else is speculation and myth.
This is why the whole covid exercise has had two avenues from day one.
Avenue one: The alleged instructions passed to politicians by behavioural scientists(
meaning behavioural psychologists that teach them conditioning techniques that match those
imagined in the Lockstep paper)
Avenue two : The alleged data and results passed to them by other 'advisors' that call
themselves 'scientific advisers'. They talk about data, numbers, projections and use them as
a foundation to build the lockdown and oppression on. None of the numbers are available to
us.
note that no avenue is left open that leads to medical doctors and virologists that
want an open debate *
Note that neither the psychologists or number crunchers have faces and voices and nobody
is there to debate or discuss. Just to pass a script of instructions to the suited clowns who
don't know there arses from a hole in the ground.
The ritualistic physical instructions of social distancing and self isolating and the
grinding down of hope and personal willpower are to induce a semi-trance state.
Watch the deadness in every pair of eyes that have a mask underneath. Watch how they have
begun to avoid speaking and walk like they're in a minefield, zombie – like.
It's all priming. The de-humanizing is the prepping. It's winding us down like toys before
'resetting' us.
If the next step is the morphing of man and machine through their mad Nazi Science- and
every day suggests it is- then we are about to bring the curtain down on man as a species and
usher in their manmade man. What better way to cremate all previous belief systems
about God made man. They hijack natural selection and then bastardize that into unnatural
selection just after God is killed as an idea that was never quantifiable.
@James
Speaks rn. I'm not fine with assuming that the end product will automatically produce
merit beyond what meritocracy is today – brown-nosing. True merit is you have
demonstrated you can do it.
The last 40+ years have seen an endless stream of "bright boys" graduating university with
MBAs, getting involved in the management structure as "change agents", screwing up the
business for 5 years then "taking another opportunity" to screw up a different company.
Prof. Henry Mintzberg calls them the wrong people, at the wrong time, for the wrong
reason, because they don't have a clue how the real world works. But hey, they are high IQ
people, so they must have merit.
@Curmudgeon
r medicine and sophisticated writing. The issue is that these individual were poorly educated
– first and foremost in the "greed is good" school of the America. After sipping deeply
of this dead-end, destructive ethical framework, these individuals were then carefully
trained on how to extract value from an economy/a company rather than add value.
High IQ is still desperately needed for progress and to maintain civilisation. But put to
ill-use, high IQ individuals can wreak commensurately wreak greater havoc.
Analogies could be made to guns, armies, cars. All of them can be put to exceptionally
ill-use. Few would argue that a modern nation can live without automobiles or some kind of
armed defence force.
According to STR, Inc , a hotel industry
market data firm, 2020 was absolutely the worst year on record for hotels as industrywide
profits fell to zero , as the virus pandemic and resulting government-enforced social
distancing measures kept travelers at home.
STR's latest report said the US hotel occupancy rate was 44% for the year, down from 66% in
2019. This was the lowest occupancy rate on record. In an earlier
STR report, we noted weeks ago that the industry had one billion unsold room nights for the
first time, surpassing the record of 786 million in 2009.
Even though S&P Global Ratings warned a few months back that the hotel industry's
recovery may not occur until 2023, STR now believes a recovery in occupancy rates back to 2019
levels may not occur until 2024.
Best Western CEO David Kong recently told CNN that "If we don't get a vaccine soon and
business doesn't return, it's going to get much worse."
The economic consequences of these non-debated government policies have been catastrophic.
In the U.S. something like 60 million jobs have been lost, many never to return. A hundred and
fifty thousand restaurants have gone bankrupt. Only one in three museums will ever reopen. In
San Francisco they decided NOT to count the numbers of new homeless. No reason was given but
one can guess. The homeless situation in the U.S., in big cities in particular, was critical
even before the pandemic. Now the numbers are unprecedented. Not even during the 'Great
Depression' was there anything like the current level of those without basic shelter.
Food insecurity is at a crisis level. Feeding America , the largest hunger
relief organization in the US, estimates over 50 million people go hungry every night including
something close to twenty million children.
Since mid-March 2020, numerous surveys have documented unprecedented levels of food
insecurity that eclipse anything seen in recent decades in the United States, including
during the Great Recession. Over the past five years, US Department of Agriculture (USDA)
estimates of food insecurity in the United States have hovered around 11% to 12%.
As of March and April 2020, national estimates of food insecurity more than tripled to 38%
In a national survey we fielded in March 2020 among adults with incomes less than 250% of the
2020 federal poverty level (based on thresholds from the US Census), 44% of all households
were food insecure including 48% of Black households, 52% of Hispanic households, and 54% of
households with children. American Public Heath Association ( Dec 2020
)
And yet, congress just passed another defense budget increase. According to Defense
News
the final version of the 2020 defense appropriations bill, part of a broad $1.4 trillion
spending deal to finalize federal spending for 2020 and avert a government shutdown. The
defense bill would provide $738 billion.
Almost one in three households suffers hunger, regularly. Almost half of black and hispanic
households. Households with children are most vulnerable to the government policies. So half of
the kids in the U.S. have inadequate nutrition. Half will suffer long term developmental
problems, almost guaranteed.
So, given that there are countless medical professionals around the world who question the
effectiveness of Covid policy by government, who questions the World Health Organization and
CDC? One would think there would be a heated and exhaustive discussion about how to proceed.
Once it was clear that this was not a particularly fatal virus, there should have been wide and
far-reaching debate. But there was none.
And who are the authorities who dictate these policies? This also remains unclear. The head
of the WHO is
Dr.Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus . But the face of the pandemic is Anthony Fauci. Now
his role is also a bit unclear.
Fauci is director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID). He
has held that position since 1984. It is unclear why he is the official advisor to
presidents.
But, the point is that Bill Gates controls forty percent of the WHO. So, take Norway, where
I live. Who advises the PM? Or advises her health minister? And it's worth noting that the
health minister is Bent Høie, from the ruling party, a conservative business-friendly
party.
Høie was born in Randaberg. He studied law at University of Bergen in 1991 and also
attended the Norwegian School of Hotel Management from 1991-93.
Well, I guess Hotel management is as good a background as any to make life and death
decisions about pandemics. One assumes the WHO and/or the CDC send advisors to talk to the
Minister of Health. But I am only guessing.
My point is that the decision-making process is utterly opaque. Nobody seems to have a clear
idea from where, exactly, the policy of lockdown (the quarantining of healthy people is, as far
as I can tell, utterly new) originated, or where the marketing and obvious fearmongering came
from.
For there has been a clear marketing apparatus in play, with all the mask adverts, the
social distancing, etc. And worth mentioning is that the eco outcry about plastic straws, a
genuine issue, really, suddenly receded and now, in the hysteria of mask wearing, the
environment has had to absorb 9 billion single-use cloth and plastic
masks .
The entire global economy is teetering on collapse. And this was intentional. This is
because of governmental actions, not because of a virus. Of course, western economies have been
teetering since 2008, if not before.
I'm not an economist, but this is the point where one must look at "The Great Reset"
.
Most of you have heard of it, its been on the cover of TIME magazine, and that photo of
Klaus Schwab and his Vulcan unitard suit has cropped up across all social media platforms. The
short version (for a long and exhaustive and insightful version see Cory Morningstar
here ) is that Schwab and his friends at the World Economic Forum have this idea, clothed
in perfect green attire, to "reset" the economies of the West (or of the world).
The word 'reset' is interesting. Who came up with that I wonder? It feels very computer-ish
and futuristic, and optimistic! And while much is made of certain aspects (natural capital,
social capital, a new deal for nature, social impact bonds, etc) the reality is that the
capitalist system, in the hands of the richest at any given moment (or we can say the ruling
class), drive corrections to the market. This helps consolidate wealth at the top, or transfer
more to the top.
And that is what this is, with the difference being that the plan is more about the
destruction of markets, the destruction of competition, and the hyper monopolization of nearly
everything. It entails a good deal of AI fantasy, but it also means a digitalization of
currency (so no grey economy, no borrowing from friends, no under the table work) and a massive
increase in surveillance and tracking. All of this is helped by the lockdown policies, the
so-called 'Reset' would likely be stillborn if not for the reaction to Covid.
Allow me to insert HERE a European
Commission statement regarding Covid19.
Now the new head of the European Commission is Ursula von der Leyen. Remember that much of
the Reset is driven by the ruling elite of Europe and North America. And these people share
common values and goals. Here is a brief biographical sketch on Ms von der
Leyen
"Von der Leyen's father's grandparents were the cotton merchant Carl Albrecht
(1875–1952) and Mary Ladson Robertson (1883–1960), an American who belonged to a
plantation owning family of the southern aristocracy from Charleston, South Carolina.
Her American ancestors played a significant role in the British colonization of the
Americas, and she descends from many of the first English settlers of Carolina, Virginia,
Pennsylvania and Barbados, and from numerous colonial-era governors.
Among her ancestors were Carolina governors John Yeamans, James Moore, Robert Gibbes, Thomas
Smith and Joseph Blake, Pennsylvania deputy governor Samuel Carpenter, and the American
revolutionary and lieutenant governor of South Carolina James Ladson.The Ladson family were
large plantation owners and her ancestor James H. Ladson owned over 200 slaves by the time
slavery in the United States was abolished; her relatives and ancestors were among the
wealthiest in British North America in the 18th century, and she descends from one of the
largest British slave traders of the era, Joseph Wragg."
I will return to why this has relevance. But I will only say here that all of the faces
fronting for the Green New Deal, and the Reset, are wealthy, from lineages of extreme wealth
and position. Today's theme is 'class'.
I can tell you only what I think Schwab and his colleagues want from this project. Let's
look at what is not going to return to normal after the lockdown.
Commercial airlines are going bust, and those that are still alive have drastically cut
routes and have limited their service. The days of cheap flights to warm beaches is gone, I
suspect, for good. Vacations will be limited and travel limited (well, unless you are very rich
like Gates and Schwab and Ms von der Leyen and Prince Charles and Jeff Bezos et al).
There are now sixty million people out of work in the U.S. The inevitability of the
Universal Basic Income is pretty clear. The question is how much does one mean by basic
?
Here I think one might do a quick history overview of apartheid South Africa, of the sugar
plantations of the 18th century in the Caribbean or, well, the Nazi work camp system. The new
capitalism that is imagined (and look, feel free to call it post-capitalism , or woke feudalism
or whateverthefuckever you want) has more in common with the aforementioned systems of
servitude and slavery than it does with anything else. It is class struggle, as Marx
emphasized. Jobs won't be coming back. There will be a gigantic surplus population.
And already one sees the gradual coalescing of a new caste system. People deemed 'important'
are allowed to go places and few questions are asked if they violate social distancing or mask
wearing. The new social apartheid, which began as a pseudoscientific method for disease
control, has now, in the brief span of a year, become a defacto class segregation. The rich are
exempt. Here is an article from the New York Post(Aug
15th) :
Meanwhile, billionaire David Geffen has been hanging on his yacht, Tom Hanks and Rita
Wilson are cruising Greece in another yacht after receiving "honorary" citizenship, Facebook
overlord Mark Zuckerberg has been trolling the waters off Hawaii in a $12,000 surfboard, Jeff
Bezos and his lady friend have been (multiple) house-hunting, buying up millions of dollars
in property in Los Angeles to build a compound while traveling via private jet to several
cities around the country, former Mayor Bloomberg splashed out $45 million on a Colorado
compound (joining a host of other billionaires buying in that state as well as Montana and
Wyoming); and others are spending millions to buy citizenship in "safe" countries like New
Zealand.
That 'compound' remark is worth noting. For this is the future for much of America. Gated
compounds for the aristos and the dirty, squalid, infected world for the proles. And look,
gated communities with private security have been in existence for forty years. Only now
the separation has deeper implications.
Of course, football can continue in both the US and UK, though basketball has been more
strictly limited (the perception is, of course, that basketball is an urban game and in a
league over 70% black).
It is amazing how these strictly-enforced behavioural rules are relaxed for the amusements
of the court. The rich can pretty much do whatever they want. Literally none of the rules apply
to them. There is a middle tier of affluent, those deemed necessary, for the moment anyway, who
get to move around more easily. For the millions now without income the restrictions will be
quite acute.
So, back to the Reset for a moment. I keep returning to the slave economies of times past
because this is increasingly what capitalism has been trending toward. The sugar plantations of
the Caribbean used slave labour. Imported from Africa. They sold that raw product in markets of
the metropole, to world markets. But on the plantation only master and slave relations existed.
And this is, in one sense, what is being normalized today. Slave relations. And like the gulf
Monarchies who use
'guest' workers (slaves, literally), Americans are close already to being guest workers in
their own country.
And like the Apartheid laws in South Africa, certain castes (replacing race in this case)
cannot go to the private beach of Mark Zukerberg. Or these days, often, any beach at all.
It's worth noting that the old 19th Century industrialist tycoons eventually became huge
philanthropists. Carnegie, Mellon, Peabody, Rockefeller even. They endowed education, built
libraries and hospitals. Today's tycoons create deceptive Green projects that are really just
more wealth-amassing schemes to displace indigenous people, steal land and property, and help
sell and normalize the police state.
Students throughout California are now stuck at home in hot, crowded rooms that
occasionally fill with wildfire smoke. 19% of these students are English language learners
and almost 13% of them have disabilities. Every day on Zoom they fall more and more behind
both academically and socially. In Los Angeles Unified, the state's largest district,
students are receiving 90-170 minutes of daily live instruction (depending on their age),
after which they are expected to do independent work. Compared to the traditional six or
seven-hour school day, online education is laughably inadequate. In real time, teachers and
families are watching important developmental windows close for vulnerable children.
Meanwhile the California Democratic Party and its affiliates tout virtual schooling as a
solution for mitigating COVID-19 transmission" Alex Gutentag ( The Bellows
)
Gutentag also notes that the California governor sends his kids to a private school with
in-person learning. Caste.
Not to mention that many children in the U.S. now live in highly-stressed homes. Over forty
million people are at risk of eviction because of unpaid back rent. None of these homes can
afford adequate food. They certainly cannot afford health care.
What happens when a child gets sick in today's America? I suspect for hundreds of thousands
they will, at best, get inconsistent attention from volunteer medical workers -- unless there
is a lockdown in effect. Then they get nothing.
As I say, this brutal reorganization of the economy bears no small similarity to a slave
economy -- but it is being sold to the public by pretending it is this new, technology-driven
Reset. (Own nothing and be happy).
What exactly does the government plan to do with those sixty million unemployed Americans?
What does the UK plan? or Germany or France? Or anywhere? The stimulus package went mostly to
big corporations. And media and state propaganda continue to provide endless distractions (see
assault on the
Capitol , and anything to do with Trump).
There is a clear belief in and emphasis on technology in all this. On AI and robotics and
transhumanism (sic) . This belief in AI to solve almost everything is reaching levels of
delusion that many people, even critics of the Reset, seem to ignore.
So how is it that people have so passively surrendered their rights? The answer is
complex.
First, the idea of cooperation and grass roots organizing have been relentlessly disparaged
in the media for decades. When unions were effectively destroyed under Reagan, along with them
went the last vestiges of collectivity. Hollywood has always made films about individual
triumph, almost never about revolutionary organizing. I think a large number of people today,
even those skeptical, suffer from a kind of inertia. And this too has been built into the
system. And it may well be an aspect of screen habituation.
But before that, people are afraid. The unseen enemy, the invisible virus, the plague, an
enemy that brings fevers and suffering, sickness and death. But that is only a part of the
problem. The Reset is presenting a future of total control for the ruling class.
Why would anyone support this madness? Well, first, because they are being sold on the idea
that it's green, and that THEY, themselves, will be in control. Sort of. And second, they have
limited options.
In a way the long shadow of the Reagan years are evident here. The destruction of unions,
coupled with the loss of real public education, has allowed for the rootless, lonely and
isolated 'individual' of contemporary America. And the utter absence of a real leftist
party.
But it's true for much of Europe, too. Here in Norway the wearing of masks is prevalent in
'high risk' red zones. And one still can't drive across the border to Sweden. I see enormous
stress indicators in children. Even in my children. And they are young. Nobody feels happy.
Isolation does not promote happiness.
Still, how likely is it that this Reset works? I think this question is ignored somewhat and
therefore we need to ask 'for whom does it work'? While there has been enormous amounts of
great stuff written about Schwab and the WEF I must digress a moment (although its not really a
digression, but only appears to be):
There is a basic problem with AI, deep learning, and natural language and, while it is about
language, it applies to other fields as well. This is the Frame problem . And the Frame
problem is intwined with the problem of time.
NOTE: The Frame problem "is the challenge of
representing the effects of action in logic without having to represent explicitly a large
number of intuitively obvious non-effects. But to many philosophers, the AI researchers' frame
problem is suggestive of wider epistemological issues." – Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy
– ed.
The Frame
problem is about relevance, and that the outlier issues, while statistically rare, are
actually what distinguish 'smart' people from 'not smart' people. Machine learning, AI, can do
a lot of things, but to over-applaud its achievements without admitting its profound
limitations is going to lead to some catastrophic mistakes and, no doubt, human tragedies.
So far the solution for the new AI cheerleaders is to make the real world like a lab. In one
sense, Singapore, with extensive use of AI via a very authoritarian state apparatus, has
already done this. China is a more complex discussion, and wanting to avoid any idea of an
'Oriental plot', I'm just going to take a Mulligan.
The ruling class anywhere is exempted in all such examples. The majority of humans will be
treated as rats in a lab test. Not even rats, but toys. In other words, highly, if not totally,
expendable.
But the problems with the Reset, and with all of the Green New Deal projects, are that they
operate in a computer model-based world that is rather significantly divorced from real life,
and certainly, intentionally, disregards class (and caste).
There are also new ideas like '
human capital bonds '. It sounds complex but this is just a more draconian loan arrangement
where, if you default, for example while going to medical school, even if you graduate you wont
be allowed to practice. Everything in this new economy gives people less power and less
autonomy.
The issues with all AI and with the advanced technology praised by the Reset are
philosophical more than scientific. Part of the problem is that the real world is enormously
complex. Like weather prediction, anything more than six or seven days out is all but
impossible. There are too many unknown factors and variables. This truth can be extrapolated to
just about any real world problem. But for all the growing skepticism about AI, the proponents
(who know these problems) continue to propagandize the benefits and the infinite possibilities
of an AI-dominated future.
The most absurd are the transhumanists. Given how little is actually known about
consciousness, and considering that all AI is just math, it seems almost infantile to think we
are going to learn better with implants, or work more efficiently. Alongside that is the issue
of prediction. Perhaps this was built into the Enlightenment, but what Adorno and Horkheimer
came to call 'instrumental thinking' is now embraced unquestioningly by the new peddlers of
AI.
Back to the philosophical issue. Wittgenstein famously said:
If a lion could speak, we would not understand it.
Language is part of a shared horizon of the world (as Steven Gambardella put it). Computers
can simulate thought, but only up to a point. (See Chinese Box experiment)
The whole modern conception of the world is founded on the illusion that the so-called
laws of nature are the explanations of natural phenomena. Thus people today stop at the laws
of nature, treating them as something inviolable, just as God and Fate were treated in past
ages. Ludwig Wittgenstein ( Tractatus )
AI is the Alchemy of the 21st century. The new Reset, driven by the high net worth figures
from Wall Street, Silicon Valley, or the Royal Houses of Europe, is a fantasy. But a fantasy
that is part of a long class struggle.
And at a certain point it doesn't matter, not totally, if AI works.
If
errors occur in computation, or in facial recognition, or in food allotments to the
projected new slave class, the billionaires on their yachts wont mind. If the implant in my
brain crashes during a scheduled update, that's just one less servant to feed.
And there is also a clear de-population agenda at work in all this. Certainly David
Attenborough and Baroness Goodall are big on getting rid of the indigenous people in Africa . Nearly all of the
pro-Reset leadership believe in depopulation. Prince Charles, another who prefers he keep his
privilege. It is not an accident that an Ursula von der Leyen is running point for the EU now.
A descendent of the biggest slave trader in Europe at one time. It speaks to exactly why a Hugo
Chavez, for example, so offended these people. Or an Evo Morales. Remember it was not so long
ago that the U.S. worked to control and neutralize African independence movements. While Cuba
and the U.S.S.R. helped to support those movements. Dick Cheney until the 90s called Mandela a
terrorist.
This intentional demolition of capitalism, as we have come to know it, is designed to
enclose populations via surveillance, digital tagging, health passports, and no doubt much
more. Again, if the digital tag doesn't work, so what? I happen to think much of this ruling
class dream is doomed to fail on the technical level. The problem is that it quite possibly
will work on a political and control level.
Depopulation is rebranded eugenics, and nothing else. The royals of Europe have always
longed for a return to what, for them, was colonial grandeur. The fantasy future is nostalgia
for the ruling class. The dream can be traced back to what the Empire has always done. They
destroy anything democratic and/or socialist. They support any dictator at any time because
they believe they deserve more and more of what is better. Let them eat cake.
They have crushed independence and autonomy for all of the 20th century and now into the
21st. The Mau Mau uprising in Kenya, the assassination of Lumumba, Vietnam, Indonesia and
Suharto, El Salvador ( U.S. support for Roberto D'Aubuisson, a fervent admirer of Hitler), or
Nicaragua, or Chile, the former Yugoslavia. One could go on and on and on. The U.S. support for
Papa Doc in Haiti, for Trujillo in the Dominican Republic. Nowhere, at any time, has the
Imperialist and colonial-loving ruling class EVER supported democracy or equality. Never,
nowhere, not once.
The problem is about perception . Take one of the biggest NGOs in the entire New Deal for
Nature; Conservation International . These people work with the WWF, with Club of Rome,
and We Mean Business. These are very wealthy business ventures. Now, Conservation International
also finances the Greta Thunberg films.
HERE is their board of directors, from their web page.
Perception. But Northrup Grummon and Riverstone Holdings. The first is a major player in the
defense industry, the industry that just got a trillion dollars, give or take, from the U.S.
Government. The second is a private equity firm focused on leveraged buyouts. Arnhold LLC is an
investment management company. Banco BTG Pactual S/A is an investment management company and
consultant to corporate trading. You get the idea. These are the people who have helped further
inequality, aided environmental destruction, and helped plunder the assets of countless
countries. The cynicism is jaw dropping, but many people just see Greta, see Green New Deal and
assume this NGO is an innocent well-intentioned and 'woke' eco-venture.
WHY would anyone think that suddenly these people are out to save the planet?
Well, they might think they ARE saving the planet, but not for you and me. For
themselves.
John Steppling is an original founding member of the Padua Hills Playwrights
Festival, a two-time NEA recipient, Rockefeller Fellow in theatre, and PEN-West winner for
playwrighting. He's had plays produced in LA, NYC, SF, Louisville, and at universities across
the US, as well in Warsaw, Lodz, Paris, London and Krakow. He has taught screenwriting and
curated the cinematheque for five years at the Polish National Film School in Lodz, Poland.
Plays include The Shaper, Dream Coast, Standard of the Breed, The Thrill, Wheel of Fortune,
Dogmouth, and Phantom Luck, which won the 2010 LA Award for best play. Film credits include 52
Pick-up (directed by John Frankenheimer, 1985) and Animal Factory (directed by Steve Buscemi,
1999). A collection of his plays was published in 1999 by Sun & Moon Press as Sea of Cortez
and Other Plays. He lives with wife Gunnhild Skrodal Steppling; they divide their time between
Norway and the high desert of southern California. He is artistic director of the theatre
collective Gunfighter Nation. Jan 19, 2021 1:40 PM
great piece. I am perplexed when we speak of the new era we are facing, as a new form of
feudalism. The feudal age it was not just a story between serfs and feudal lords, in Europe, we
also witnessed the birth of Medieval commune, the Municipalities, in which citizens gave
themselves the first laws and rights of free men. "During the 10th century in several parts of
Western Europe, peasants began to gravitate towards walled population centers, as advances in
agriculture (the three-field system) resulted in greater productivity and intense
competition
Such townspeople needed physical protection from lawless nobles and bandits, part of the
motivation for gathering behind communal walls, but also strove to establish their liberties,
the freedom to conduct and regulate their own affairs and security from arbitrary taxation and
harassment from the bishop, abbot, or count in whose jurisdiction these obscure and ignoble
social outsiders lay. This was a long process of struggling to obtain charters that guaranteed
such basics as the right to hold a market. The breakaway from their feudal overlords by these
communes occurred in the late 12th century and 13th century, during the Investiture Controversy
between the Pope and the Holy Roman Emperor. Milan led the Lombard cities against the Holy
Roman Emperors and defeated them, gaining independence (battles of Legnano, 1176, and Parma,
1248). Meanwhile, the Republic of Venice, Pisa and Genoa were able to conquer their naval
empires on the Mediterranean sea (in 1204 Venice conquered three-eights of the Byzantine Empire
in the Fourth Crusade). Cities such as Parma, Ferrara, Verona, Padua, Lucca, Siena, Mantua and
others were able to create stable states at the expenses of their neighbors, some of which
lasted until modern times." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medieval_commune
."
I've been following her work for several months now and think her premises much sounder
than Matthew Ehret's, who are actually on the same Canadian team. Generally, the three of us
are working on exposing the rise and spread of what's now known as Neoliberalism. And of
course, there's Dr. Hudson who's ahead of us all.
The line of investigation initiated by Upton Sinclair into the shared Board memberships at
key elite universities within the USA that erased the traditional teaching of
political-economy and replaced it with the mathematical economics which lie at the root of
Neoliberalism's Junk Economics
I see as very promising as they're also prominent bankers and Old Money with social
connections to England's Royalty and Nobility--the primary members of Europe's Rentier
Class . When I look over the comments, many have forgotten just what Class owns the
Duopoly and controls the federal government. Trump was never allowed into their circle but
was used by some of its members in the pursuit of interests that are still shrouded in fog.
My working hypothesis there is they were quite worried that too much industrial capacity had
been foreclosed and moved such that it caused a real threat to national security; thus the
need for MAGA.
With the rise of the Eurasian Bloc, the "threat" isn't military; it's economic. As I wrote
earlier today, an economy based on consumerism will collapse when the consumers can no longer
consume. Hudson's 100% correct that debt's that can't be repaid won't. The current degree of
economic polarization is miniscule compared to what might ensue if the Bidenites don't
forestall it--200 Million people bankrupt while 100 Million have good paying jobs and can
afford their debts--the remaining 40-50 Million are mostly impoverished children. This time
the part of the public that gets shafted as in 2009 under Obama isn't going to sit still, and
what happened in DC will be repeated elsewhere with meaning this time. A genuine MAGA Fascist
wanting control will need to disarm the Rentier Class and the Swamp thus ousting the
current "Friendly Fascist" regime--and that would require a paramilitary since that's
basically what composes the Swamp--Civil War between two Factions of Reaction that would also
split the military. Wonder what barflies think of all that?
Earlier in the week I linked to the latest Renegade Inc program which had Dr.
Hudson as one of the guests. That show's
transcript is now available. Here's an excerpt with Ross Ashcroft asking a question:
"Ross: What do you think are the megatrends that we should be looking at in 2021? What do
you think is the direction of travel, if you like, for so-called developed economies?
"Michael Hudson: Well, the big trend in any economy is the growth of debt, because the
debt grows exponentially. The economy has painted itself into a debt corner. We can see that
in real estate. We can see that for small business. There's also almost no way to recover.
The Federal Reserve has been printing quantitative easing to keep stock and bonds high. But
for the real economy, the trend is polarization and lower employment.
"The trend also is that state and local finances are broke, especially in the biggest
cities, New York City, San Francisco and Los Angeles. They're not getting income tax revenue
from the unemployed or closed businesses. They're not getting the real estate tax with so
many defaults and mortgage arrears. In New York City there's talk of cutting back the subways
by 70 percent. People will be afraid to take the subways when they're overcrowded with people
with the virus. So you're having a breakdown not only in state and local finances, but of
public services that are state run – public transportation services, health services,
education is being downsized. Everything that is funded out of state and local budgets is
going to suffer.
"And living standards are going to be very sharply downward as people realize how many
services they got are dependent on public infrastructure."
And this one I must also include:
"Ross: What is the one thing that has really surprised you in 2020? What have you laughed
at? What has given you a chuckle?
"Michael Hudson: The surprise – that I really shouldn't have been surprised at
– is how naive Bernie Sanders supporters were in thinking that they were going to get a
fair deal and that the elections were going to be fair. The illusion is that people were
actually going to have a fair election when the last thing the vested interests wanted was
Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren or any kind of reformer. So what happened to Sanders is
what happened to Corbyn in Britain and the Labour Party's neoliberal leadership.
"So what's for laughs? I guess, Tulsi Gabbard's takedown of Kamala Harris was absolutely
wonderful. Everybody just broke out laughing, cheering for her. And of course, that's why she
was marginalized, and now we have Kamala Harris as the senior vice president."
Of course, none of the dire economic news is being reported with the focus instead on Wall
Street's markets, with much of the public just as brainwashed about it as Trump. The last
third focuses on politics, which is what most barflies want to read about. So, click the link
and read what Dr. Hudson sees in the tea leaves.
The economy develops momentum on its own because of pent-up demand, and depressed
hospitality and airline stocks become strong performers . Fiscal and monetary policy remain
historically accommodative. Nominal economic growth for the full year exceeds 6% and the
unemployment rate falls to 5%. We begin the longest economic cycle in history, surpassing
the cycle that lasted from 2010 to 2020.
The Federal Reserve and the Treasury openly embrace Modern Monetary Theory as their
accommodative policies continue. As long as growth exceeds the rate of inflation, deficits
don't seem to matter. Because inflation increases modestly, gold rallies and
cryptocurrencies gain more respect during the year.
Even as energy company executives cut estimates for long-term growth, near-term
opportunities are increasing. The return to "normal" increases both industrial activity and
mobility, and the price of West Texas Intermediate oil rises to $65/bbl. Rig counts
increase and energy high yield bonds rally soundly. Energy stocks are among the best
performers in 2021.
The equity market broadens out. Stocks beyond health care and technology participate in
the rise in prices. "Risk on" is not without risk and the market corrects almost 20% in the
first half, but the S&P 500 trades at 4,500 later in the year. Cyclicals lead
defensives, small caps beat large caps and the "K" shaped equity market recovery unwinds.
Big cap tech is the source of liquidity, and the stocks are laggards for the year.
The surge in economic growth causes the 10-year Treasury yield to rise to 2%. The yield
curve steepens, but a concomitant increase in inflation keeps real rates near zero. The Fed
wants the strength in housing and autos to continue. As a result, it extends the duration
of bond purchases in order to prevent higher rates at the long end of the curve from
choking off credit to consumers and businesses.
The slide in the dollar turns around. The post-vaccine strength of the U.S. economy and
financial markets attracts investors disenchanted with the rising debt and slower growth of
Europe and Japan. Treasurys maintain a positive yield and the carry trade continues.
The past year began with the assassination of the Iranian military genius General Qasem
Soleimani by the United States, and it ended with the murder of the prominent scholar Mohsen
Fakhrizadeh by the Israelis. In early January, Iran, expecting another aggressive action from
the West, accidently shot down a Ukrainian civil aircraft that had inexplicably altered its
course over Tehran without request nor authorization. Around the same time, Turkey confirmed
the deployment of its military in Libya, beginning a new phase of confrontation in the region,
and Egypt responding with airstrikes and additional shows of force. The situation in Yemen
developed rapidly: taking advantage of the Sunni coalition's moral weakness, Ansar Allah
achieved significant progress in forcing the Saudis out of the country in many regions. The
state of warfare in northwestern Syria has significantly changed, transforming into the formal
delineation of zones of influence of Turkey and the Russian-Iranian-Syrian coalition. This
happened amid, and largely due to the weakening of U.S. influence in the region. Ankara is
steadily increasing its military presence in the areas under its responsibility and along the
contact line. It has taken measures to deter groups linked to Al-Qaeda and other radicals. As a
result, the situation in the region is stabilizing, which has allowed Turkey to increasingly
exert control over most of Greater Idlib.
ISIS cells remain active in the eastern and southern Syrian regions. Particular processes
are taking place in Quneitra and Daraa provinces, where Russian peace initiatives were
inconclusive by virtue of the direct destructive influence of Israel in these areas of Syria.
In turn, the assassination of Qasem Soleimaniin resulted in a sharp increase in the targeting
of American personnel, military and civil infrastructure in Iraq. The U.S. Army was forced to
regroup its forces, effectively abandoning a number of its military installations and
concentrating available forces at key bases. At the same time, Washington flatly rejected
demands from Baghdad for a complete withdrawal of U.S. troops and promised to respond with
full-fledged sanctions if Iraq continued to raise this issue. Afghanistan remains stable in its
instability. Disturbing news comes from Latin America. Confrontation between China and India
flared this year, resulting in sporadic border clashes. This situation seems far from over, as
both countries have reinforced their military posture along the disputed border. The aggressive
actions of the Trump administration against China deepen global crises, which has become
obvious not only to specialists but also to the general public. The relationship between the
collective West and the Russian Federation was re-enshrined in "the Cold War state", which
seems to have been resurrected once again.
The turbulence of the first quarter of 2020 was overshadowed by a new socio-political
process – the corona-crisis, the framework of which integrates various phenomena from the
Sars-Cov2 epidemic itself and the subsequent exacerbation of the global economic crisis. The
disclosure of substantial social differences that have accumulated in modern capitalist
society, lead to a series of incessant protests across the globe. The year 2020 was accompanied
by fierce clashes between protesters professing various causes and law enforcement forces in
numerous countries. Although on the surface these societal clashes with the state appear
disassociated, many share related root causes. A growing, immense wealth inequality, corruption
of government at all levels, a lack of any meaningful input into political decision making, and
the unmasking of massive censorship via big tech corporations and the main stream media all
played a part in igniting societal unrest.
In late 2019 and early 2020 there was little reason for optimistic projections for the near
future. However, hardly anyone could anticipate the number of crisis events and developments
that had taken place during this year. These phenomena affected every region of the world to
some extent.
Nevertheless, Middle East has remained the main source of instability, due to being an arena
where global and regional power interests intertwine and clash. The most important line of
confrontation is between US and Israel-led forces on the one hand, and Iran and its so called
Axis of Resistance. The opposing sides have been locked in an endless spiral of mutual
accusations, sanctions, military incidents, and proxy wars, and recently even crossed the
threshold into a limited exchange of strikes due to the worsening state of regional
confrontation. Russia and Turkey, the latter of which has been distancing itself from
Washington due to growing disagreements with "NATO partners" and changes in global trends, also
play an important role in the region without directly entering into the confrontation between
pro-Israel forces and Iran.
As in the recent years, Syria and Iraq remain the greatest hot-spots. The destruction of
ISIS as a terrorist state and the apparent killing of its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi did not
end its existence as a terror group. Many ISIS cells and supporting elements actively use
regional instability as a chance to preserve the Khalifate's legacy. They remain active mainly
along the Syria-Iraq border, and along the eastern bank of the Euphrates in Syria. Camps for
the temporary displaced and for the families and relatives of ISIS militants on the territory
controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) in north-eastern Syria are also breeding
grounds for terrorist ideology. Remarkably, these regions are also where there is direct
presence of US forces, or, as in the case of SDF camps, presence of forces supported by the
US.
The fertile soil for radicalism also consists of the inability to reach a comprehensive
diplomatic solution that would end the Syrian conflict in a way acceptable to all parties.
Washington is not interesting in stabilizing Syria because even should Assad leave, it would
strengthen the Damascus government that would naturally be allied to Russia and Iran. Opposing
Iran and supporting Israel became the cornerstone of US policy during the Trump administration.
Consequently, Washington is supporting separatist sentiments of the Kurdish SDF leadership and
even allowed it to participate in the plunder of Syrian oil wells in US coalition zone of
control in which US firms linked to the Pentagon and US intelligence services are
participating. US intelligence also aids Israel in its information and psychological warfare
operations, as well as military strikes aimed at undermining Syria and Iranian forces located
in the country. In spite of propaganda victories, in practice Israeli efforts had limited
success in 2020 as Iran continued to strengthen its positions and military capabilities on its
ally's territory. Iran's success in establishing and supporting a land corridor linking
Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Iraq, plays an important role. Constant expansion of Iran's military
presence and infrastructure near the town of al-Bukamal, on the border of Iraq and Syria,
demonstrates the importance of the project to Tehran. Tel-Aviv claims that Iran is using that
corridor to equip pro-Iranian forces in southern Syria and Lebanon with modern weapons.
The Palestinian question is also an important one for Israel's leadership and its lobby in
Washington. The highly touted "deal of the century" turned out to be no more than an offer for
the Palestinians to abandon their struggle for statehood. As expected, this initiative did not
lead to a breakthrough in Israeli-Palestinian relations. Rather the opposite, it gave an
additional stimulus to Palestinian resistance to the demands that were being imposed. At the
same time, Trump administration scored a diplomatic success by forcing the UAE and Bahrain to
normalize their relations with Israel, and Saudi Arabia to make its collaboration with Israel
public. That was a historic victory for US-Israel policy in the Middle East. Public
rapprochement of Arab monarchies and Israel strengthened the positions of Iran as the only
country which not only declares itself as Palestine's and Islamic world's defender, but
actually puts words into practice. Saudi Arabia's leadership will particularly suffer in terms
of loss of popularity among its own population, already damaged by the failed war in Yemen and
intensifying confrontation with UAE, both of which are already using their neighbor's weakness
to lay a claim to leadership on the Arabian Peninsula.
The list of actors strengthening their positions in the Red Sea includes Russia. In late
2020 it became known that Russia reached an agreement with Sudan on establishing a naval
support facility which has every possibility to become a full-blown naval base. This foothold
will enable the Russian Navy to increase its presence on key maritime energy supply routes on
the Red Sea itself and in the area between Aden and Oman straits. For Russia, which has not had
naval infrastructure in that region since USSR's break-up, it is a significant diplomatic
breakthrough. For its part. Sudan's leadership apparently views Russia's military presence as a
security factor allowing it to balance potential harmful measures by the West.
During all of 2020, Moscow and Beijing continued collaboration on projects in Africa,
gradually pushing out traditional post-colonial powers in several key areas. The presence of
Russian military specialists in the Central African Republic where they assist the central
government in strengthening its forces, escalation of local conflicts, and ensuring the
security of Russian economic sectors, is now a universally known fact. Russian diplomacy and
specialists are also active in Libya, where UAE and Egypt which support Field Marshal Khaftar,
and Turkey which supports the Tripoli government, are clashing. Under the cover of declarations
calling for peace and stability, foreign actors are busily carving up Libya's energy resources.
For Egypt there's also the crucial matter of fighting terrorism and the presence of groups
affiliated with Muslim Brotherhood which Cairo sees as a direct threat to national
security.
The Sahel and the vicinity of Lake Chad remain areas where terror groups with links to
al-Qaeda and ISIS remain highly active. France's limited military mission in the Sahara-Sahel
region has been failure and could not ensure sufficient support for regional forces in order to
stabilize the situation. ISIS and Boko-Haram continue to spread chaos in the border areas
between Niger, Nigeria, Cameroun, and Chad. In spite of all the efforts by the region's
governments, terrorists continue to control sizable territories and represent a significant
threat to regional security. The renewed conflict in Ethiopia is a separate problem, in which
the federal government was drawn into a civil war against the National Front for the Liberation
of Tigray controlling that province. The ethno-feudal conflict between federal and regional
elites threatens to destabilize the entire country if it continues.
The explosive situation in Africa shows that post-colonial European powers and the "Global
Policeman" which dominated that continent for decades were not interested in addressing the
continent's actual problem. Foreign actors were mainly focused on extracting resources and
ensuring the interests of a narrow group of politicians and entities affiliated with foreign
capitals. Now they are forced to compete with the informal China-Russia bloc which will use a
different approach that may be a described as follows: Strengthening of regional stability to
protect investments in economic projects. Thus it is no surprise that influential actors are
gradually losing to new but more constructive forces.
Tensions within European countries have been on the rise during the past several years, due
to both the crisis of the contemporary economic paradigm and to specific regional problems such
as the migration crises and the failure of multiculturalism policies, with subsequent
radicalization of society.
Unpleasant surprises included several countries' health care and social protection networks'
inability to cope with the large number of COVID-19 patients. Entire systems of governance in a
number of European countries proved incapable of coping with rapidly developing crises. This is
true particularly for countries of southern Europe, such as Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece.
Among eastern European countries, Hungary's and Romania's economies were particularly badly
affected. At the same time, Poland's state institutions and economy showed considerable
resilience in the face of crisis. While the Federal Republic of Germany suffered considerable
economic damage in the second quarter of 2020, Merkel's government used the situation to inject
huge sums of liquidity into the economy, enhanced Germany's position within Europe, and
moreover Germany's health care and social protection institutions proved capable and
sufficiently resilient.
Coronavirus and subsequent social developments led to the emergence of the so-called "Macron
Doctrine" which amounts to an argument that EU must obtain strategic sovereignty. This is
consistent with the aims of a significant portion of German national elites. Nevertheless,
Berlin officially criticized Macron's statements and has shown willingness to enter into a
strategic partnership with Biden Administration's United States as a junior partner. However,
even FRG's current leadership understands the dangers of lack of strategic sovereignty in an
era of America's decline as the world policeman. Against the backdrop of a global economic
crisis, US-EU relations are ineluctably drifting from a state of partnership to one of
competition or even rivalry. In general, the first half of 2020 demonstrated the vital
necessity of further development of European institutions.
The second half of 2020 was marked by fierce mass protests in Germany, France, Great
Britain, and other European countries. The level of violence employed by both the protesters
and law enforcement was unprecedented and is not comparable to the level of violence seen
during protests in Russia, Belarus, and even Kirgizstan. Mainstream media did their best to
depreciate and conceal the scale of what was happening. If the situation continues to develop
in the same vein, there is every chance that in the future, a reality that can be described as
a digital concentration camp may form in Europe.
World media, for its part, paid particular attention to the situation in Belarus, where
protests have entered their fourth month following the August 9, 2020 presidential elections.
Belarusian protests have been characterized by their direction from outside the country and
choreographed nature. The command center of protest activities is officially located in Poland.
This fact is in and of itself unprecedented in Europe's contemporary history. Even during
Ukraine's Euromaidan, external forces formally refused to act as puppetmasters.
Belarus' genuinely existing socio-economic problems have led to a rift within society that
is now divided into two irreconcilable camps: proponents of reforms vs. adherents of the
current government. Law enforcement forces which are recruited from among President
Lukashenko's supporters, have acted forcefully and occasionally harshly. Still, the number of
casualties is far lower than, for example, in protests in France or United States.
Ukraine itself, where Western-backed "democratic forces" have already won, remains the main
point of instability in Eastern Europe. The Zelenskiy administration came to power under
slogans about the need to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine and rebuild the country. In
practice, the new government continued to pursue the policy aimed at maintaining military
tension in the region in the interests of its external sponsors and personal enrichment.
For the United States, 2020 turned out to be a watershed year for both domestic and foreign
policy. Events of this year were a reflection of Trump Administration's protectionist foreign
policy and a national-oriented approach in domestic and economic policy, which ensured an
intense clash with the majority of Washington Establishment acting in the interests of global
capital.
In addition to the unresolved traditional problems, America's problems were made worse by
two crises, COVID-19 spread and BLM movement protests. They ensured America's problems reached
a state of critical mass.
One can and should have a critical attitude toward President Trump's actions, but one should
not doubt the sincerity of his efforts to turn the slogan Make America Great Again into
reality. One should likewise not doubt that his successor will adhere to other values. Whether
it's Black Lives Matter or Make Global Moneymen Even Stronger, or Russia Must Be Destroyed, or
something even more exotic, it will not change the fact America we've known in the last half
century died in 2020. A telling sign of its death throes is the use of "orange revolution"
technologies developed against inconvenient political regimes. This demonstrated that currently
the United States is ruled not by national elites but by global investors to whom the interests
of ordinary Americans are alien.
This puts the terrifying consequences of COVID-19 in a new light. The disease has struck the
most vulnerable layers of US society. According to official statistics, United States has had
about 20 million cases and over 330,000 deaths. The vast majority are low-income inhabitants of
mega-cities. At the same time, the wealthiest Americans have greatly increased their wealth by
exploiting the unfolding crisis for their own personal benefit. The level of polarization of US
society has assumed frightening proportions. Conservatives against liberals, blacks against
whites, LGBT against traditionalists, everything that used to be within the realm of public
debate and peaceful protest has devolved into direct, often violent, clashes. One can observe
unprecedented levels of aggression and violence from all sides.
In foreign policy, United States continued to undermine the international security system
based on international treaties. There are now signs that one of the last legal bastions of
international security, the New START treaty, is under attack. US international behavior has
prompted criticism from NATO allies. There are growing differences of opinion on political
matters with France and economic ones with Germany. The dialogue with Eastern Mediterranean's
most powerful military actor Turkey periodically showed a sharp clash of interests.
Against that backdrop, United States spent 2020 continuously increasing its military
presence in Eastern Europe and the Black Sea basin. Additional US forces and assets were
deployed in direct proximity to Russia's borders. The number of offensive military exercises
under US leadership or with US participation has considerably increased.
In the Arctic, the United States is acting as a spoiler, unhappy with the current state of
affairs. It aims to extend its control over natural resources in the region, establish
permanent presence in other countries' exclusive economic zones (EEZ) through the use of the
so-called "freedom of navigation operations" (FONOPs), and continue to encircle Russia with
ballistic missile defense (BMD) sites and platforms.
In view of the urgent and evident US preparations to be able to fight and prevail in a war
against a nuclear adversary, by defeating the adversary's nuclear arsenal through the
combination of precision non-nuclear strikes, Arctic becomes a key region in this military
planning. The 2020 sortie by a force of US Navy BMD-capable AEGIS destroyers into the Barents
Sea, the first such mission since the end of the Cold War over two decades ago, shows the
interest United States has in projecting BMD capabilities into regions north of Russia's
coastline, where they might be able to effect boost-phase interceptions of Russian ballistic
missiles that would be launched in retaliatory strikes against the United States. US
operational planning for the Arctic in all likelihood resembles that for South China Sea, with
only a few corrections for climate.
In Latin America, the year of 2020 was marked by the intensification Washington efforts
aimed at undermining the political regimes that it considered to be in the opposition to the
existing world order.
Venezuela remained one of the main points of the US foreign policy agenda. During the entire
year, the government of Nicolas Maduro was experiencing an increasing sanction, political and
clandestine pressure. In May, Venezuelan security forces even neutralized a group of US
mercenaries that sneaked into the country to stage the coup in the interests of the
Washington-controlled opposition and its public leader Juan Guaido. However, despite the
recognition of Guaido as the president of Venezuela by the US and its allies, regime-change
attempts, and the deep economic crisis, the Maduro government survived.
This case demonstrated that the decisive leadership together having the support of a notable
part of the population and working links with alternative global centers of power could allow
any country to resist to globalists' attacks. The US leadership itself claims that instead of
surrendering, Venezuela turned itself into a foothold of its geopolitical opponents: China,
Russia, Iran and even Hezbollah. While this evaluation of the current situation in Venezuela is
at least partly a propaganda exaggeration to demonize the 'anti-democratic regime' of Maduro,
it highlights parts of the really existing situation.
The turbulence in Bolivia ended in a similar manner, when the right wing government that
gained power as a result of the coup in 2019 demonstrated its inability to rule the country and
lost power in 2020. The expelled president, Evo Morales, returned to the country and the
Movement for Socialism secured their dominant position in Bolivia thanks to the wide-scale
support from the indigenous population. Nonetheless, it is unlikely that these developments in
Venezuela and Bolivia would allow to reverse the general trend towards the destabilization in
South America.
The regional economic and social turbulence is strengthened by the high level of organized
crime and the developing global crisis that sharpened the existing contradictions among key
global and regional players. This creates conditions for the intensification of existing
conflicts. For example, the peace process between the FARC and the federal government is on the
brink of the collapse in Colombia. Local sources and media accuse the government and affiliated
militias of detentions and killings of leaders of local communities and former FARC members in
violation of the existing peace agreement. This violence undermine the fragile peace process
and sets conditions for the resumption of the armed struggle by FARC and its supporters. Mexico
remains the hub for illegal migration, drug and weapon trafficking just on the border with the
United States. Large parts of the country are in the state of chaos and are in fact controlled
by violent drug cartels and their mercenaries. Brazil is in the permanent state of political
and economic crisis amid the rise of street crime.
These negative tendencies affect almost all states of the region. The deepening global
economic crisis and the coronavirus panic add oil to the flame of instability.
Countries of South America are not the only one suffering from the crisis. It also shapes
relations between global powers. Outcomes of the ongoing coronavirus outbreak and the global
economic crisis contributed to the hardening of the standoff between the United States and
China.
Washington and Beijing have insoluble contradictions. The main of them is that China has
been slowly but steadily winning the race for the economic and technological dominance
simultaneously boosting own military capabilities to defend the victory in the case of a
military escalation. The sanction, tariff and diplomatic pressure campaign launched by the
White House on China since the very start of the Trump Presidency is a result of the
understanding of these contradictions by the Trump administration and its efforts to guarantee
the leading US position in the face of the global economic recession. The US posture towards
the South China Sea issues, the political situation in Hong Kong, human rights issues in
Xinjiang, the unprecedented weapon sales to Taiwan, the support of the militarization of Japan
and many other questions is a part of the ongoing standoff. Summing up, Washington has been
seeking to isolate China through a network of local military alliances and contain its economic
expansion through sanction, propaganda and clandestine operations.
The contradictions between Beijing and Washington regarding North Korea and its nuclear and
ballistic missile programs are a part of the same chain of events. Despite the public rhetoric,
the United States is not interested in the full settlement of the Korea conflict. Such a
scenario that may include the reunion of the North and South will remove the formal
justification of the US military buildup. This is why the White House opted to not fulfill its
part of the deal with the North once again assuring the North Korean leadership that its
decision to develop its nuclear and missile programs and further.
Statements of Chinese diplomats and top official demonstrate that Beijing fully understands
the position of Washington. At the same time, China has proven that it is not going to abandon
its policies aimed at gaining the position of the main leading power in the post-unipolar
world. Therefore, the conflict between the sides will continue escalating in the coming years
regardless the administration in the White House and the composition of the Senate and
Congress. Joe Biden and forces behind his rigged victory in the presidential election will
likely turn back from Trump's national-oriented economic policy and 'normalize' relations with
China once again reconsidering Russia as Enemy #1. This will not help to remove the insoluble
contradictions with China and reverse the trend towards the confrontation. However, the Biden
administration with help from mainstream media will likely succeed in hiding this fact from the
public by fueling the time-honored anti-Russian hysteria.
As to Russia itself, it ended the year of 2020 in its ordinary manner for the recent years:
successful and relatively successful foreign policy actions amid the complicated economic,
social and political situation inside the country. The sanction pressure, coronavirus-related
restrictions and the global economic crisis slowed down the Russian economy and contributed to
the dissatisfaction of the population with internal economic and social policies of the
government. The crisis was also used by external actors that carried out a series of
provocations and propaganda campaigns aimed at undermining the stability in the country ahead
of the legislative election scheduled for September 2021. The trend on the increase of sanction
pressure, including tapering large infrastructure projects like the Nord Stream 2, and
expansion of public and clandestine destabilization efforts inside Russia was visible during
the entire year and will likely increase in 2021. In the event of success, these efforts will
not only reverse Russian foreign policy achievements of the previous years, but could also put
in danger the existence of the Russian statehood in the current format.
Among the important foreign policy developments of 2020 underreported by mainstream media is
the agreement on the creation of a Russian naval facility on the coast of the Red Sea in Sudan.
If this project is fully implemented, this will contribute to the rapid growth of Russian
influence in Africa. Russian naval forces will also be able to increase their presence in the
Red Sea and in the area between the Gulf of Aden and the Gulf of Oman. Both of these areas are
the core of the current maritime energy supply routes. The new base will also serve as a
foothold of Russia in the case of a standoff with naval forces of NATO member states that
actively use their military infrastructure in Djibouti to project power in the region. It is
expected that the United States (regardless of the administration in the White House) will try
to prevent the Russian expansion in the region at any cost. For an active foreign policy of
Russia, the creation of the naval facility in Sudan surpasses all public and clandestine
actions in Libya in recent years. From the point of view of protecting Russian national
interests in the Global Oceans, this step is even more important than the creation of the
permanent air and naval bases in Syria.
As well as its counterparts in Washington and Beijing, Moscow contributes notable efforts to
the modernization of its military capabilities, with special attention to the strategic nuclear
forces and hypersonic weapons. The Russians see their ability to inflict unacceptable damage on
a potential enemy among the key factors preventing a full-scale military aggression against
them from NATO. The United Sates, China and Russia are in fact now involved in the hypersonic
weapon race that also includes the development of means and measures to counter a potential
strike with hypersonic weapons.
The new war in Nagorno-Karabakh became an important factor shaping the balance of power in
the South Caucasus. The Turkish-Azerbaijani bloc achieved a sweeping victory over Armenian
forces and only the involvement of the Russian diplomacy the further deployment of the
peacekeepers allowed to put an end to the violence and rescue the vestiges of the
self-proclaimed Armenian Republic of Artsakh. Russia successfully played a role of mediator and
officially established a military presence on the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan for the
next 5 years. The new Karabakh war also gave an additional impulse in the Turkish-Azerbaijani
economic and military cooperation, while the pro-Western regime in Armenia that expectedly led
the Armenian nation to the tragedy is balancing on the brink of collapse.
The Central Asia traditionally remained one of the areas of instability around the world
with the permanent threat of militancy and humanitarian crisis. Nonetheless, despite forecasts
of some analysis, the year of 2020 did not become the year of the creation of ISIS' Caliphate
2.0 in the region. An important role in preventing this was played by the Taliban that
additionally to securing its military victories over the US-led coalition and the US-backed
Kabul government, was fiercely fighting ISIS cells appearing in Afghanistan. The Taliban, which
controls a large part of Afghanistan, was also legalized on the international scene by direct
talks with the United States. The role of the Taliban will grow and further with the reduction
of the US military presence.
While some media already branded the year of 2020 as one of the worst in the modern history,
there are no indications that the year of 2021 will be any brighter or the global crises and
regional instability will magically disappear by themselves. Instead, most likely 2020 was just
a prelude for the upcoming global shocks and the acute standoff for markets and resources in
the environment of censorship, legalized total surveillance, violations of human rights under
'democratic' and 'social' slogans' and proxy wars.
The instability in Europe will likely be fueled by the increasing cultural-civilizational
conflict and the new wave of newcomers that have acute ideological and cultural differences
with the European civilization. The influx of newcomers is expected due to demographic factors
and the complicated security, social situation in the Middle East and Africa. Europe will
likely try to deal with the influx of newcomers by introducing new movement and border
restrictions under the brand of fighting coronavirus. Nonetheless, the expected growth of the
migration pressure will likely contribute to the negative tendencies that could blow up Europe
from inside.
The collapse of the international security system, including key treaties limiting the
development and deployment of strategic weapons, indicates that the new detente on the global
scene will remain an improbable scenario. Instead, the world will likely move further towards
the escalation scenario as at least a part of the current global leadership considers a large
war a useful tool to overcome the economic crisis and capture new markets. Russia, with its
large territories, rich resources, a relatively low population, seems to be a worthwhile
target. At the same time, China will likely exploit the escalating conflict between Moscow and
the US-led bloc to even further increase its global positions. In these conditions, many will
depend on the new global order and main alliances within it that are appearing from the
collapsing unipolar system. The United States has already lost its unconditional dominant role
on the international scene, but the so-called multipolar world order has not appeared yet. The
format of this new multipolar world will likely have a critical impact on the further
developments around the globe and positions of key players involved in the never-ending Big
Game.
* * *
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Usually such prediction are not worth electrons to are needed to display them on the screen
but the idea that "[paper gold" offer no hadge might be sound. Whether natural gat wil rally as
he predicts is another story ("Buy natural gas because Williams expects it to rally.") If the
stock market followed his forecasts he probably would be billionaire, especially with his
tendency to trade futures.
It is not clear how long the market can levitate at current high but some kind of 2008
reckoning might be in the cards. When and what might be the trigger is not clear. But as one
commenter said "I don't believe that all of the damage caused by our pandemic has been adequately
summed up" The disconnect between the actual economy and the stock market can't last
forever.
I've watched Williams accurately call many market twists and turns in the 15 years I've known
him. I know of more than a few money managers who trust his judgement. Williams has won or
placed well in the I've watched Williams accurately call many market twists and turns in the 15
years I've known him. I know of more than a few money managers who trust his judgement.
Williams has won or placed well in the World Cup
Trading Championship several times since the 1980s To make market calls, Williams uses his
own time-tested mix of fundamentals, seasonal trends, technical signals and intelligence
gleaned from the Commitment of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC). Here's how he thinks about the three types of positions the CFTC reports. Williams
considers positioning by commercial traders or hedgers and users and producers of commodities
to be the smart money. He thinks large traders, mainly big investment shops, and the public are
contrarian indicators. Williams mainly trades futures because he thinks that's where you can
make the big money. But we can apply his calls to stocks and exchange traded funds, too. Here's
how he's positioning for the next few weeks and through the end of the year, in some of the
major asset classes and stocks. To make market calls, Williams uses his own time-tested mix of
fundamentals, seasonal trends, technical signals and intelligence gleaned from the Commitment
of Traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Here's how he thinks
about the three types of positions the CFTC reports. Williams considers positioning by
commercial traders or hedgers and users and producers of commodities to be the smart money. He
thinks large traders, mainly big investment shops, and the public are contrarian indicators.
Williams mainly trades futures because he thinks that's where you can make the big money. But
we can apply his calls to stocks and exchange traded funds, too. Here's how he's positioning
for the next few weeks and through the end of the year, in some of the major asset classes and
stocks. To make market calls, Williams uses his own time-tested mix of fundamentals, seasonal
trends, technical signals and intelligence gleaned from the Commitment of Traders report from
the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Here's how he thinks about the three types of
positions the CFTC reports. Williams considers positioning by commercial traders or hedgers and
users and producers of commodities to be the smart money. He thinks large traders, mainly big
investment shops, and the public are contrarian indicators. Williams mainly trades futures
because he thinks that's where you can make the big money. But we can apply his calls to stocks
and exchange traded funds, too. Here's how he's positioning for the next few weeks and through
the end of the year, in some of the major asset classes and stocks. Williams mainly trades
futures because he thinks that's where you can make the big money. But we can apply his calls
to stocks and exchange traded funds, too. Here's how he's positioning for the next few weeks
and through the end of the year, in some of the major asset classes and stocks. Williams mainly
trades futures because he thinks that's where you can make the big money. But we can apply his
calls to stocks and exchange traded funds, too. Here's how he's positioning for the next few
weeks and through the end of the year, in some of the major asset classes and stocks.
Expect an extended stock market selloff
To make market calls in September, Williams turns to what he calls the Machu Picchu trade,
because he discovered this signal while traveling to the ancient Inca ruins with his wife in
2014. Williams, who is intensely focused on seasonal patterns that consistently play out over
time, noticed that it's usually a great idea to sell stocks -- using indexes, mostly -- on the
seventh trading day before the end of September. (This year, that's Sept. 22.) Selling on this
day has netted profits in short-term trades 100% of the time over the past 22 years.
... ... ...
One caveat: Watch the advance-decline line, one of Williams' favorite indicators. If fewer
stocks are declining relative to advancers on days the stock market is weak, or if there is a
broadening out of participation on up days, this is a sign the any selloff may be coming to a
close.
"If great breadth comes in to the market [on up days], then I will get bullish," he
says.
Gold offers no hedge
A lot of people think gold serves as a hedge during stock market declines, but this isn't
true, says Williams. Gold has slumped along with stocks in most of the major market selloffs.
He expects the same over the next three to four weeks. He's advising gold traders to sell any
rallies now, and then revisit when gold falls later this year to buy back lower.
To make this call, Williams looks at the typical seasonal pattern for gold that plays out
every year, and also the historical trends in election years. The conclusion: Gold typically
peaks around the middle of September then weakens for most of the rest of the year. This year,
gold has underperformed its typical seasonal pattern, which is bearish for the metal.
"Gold has not been able to stay in step with what happened in the past, therefore the
seasonal pattern should work this year," he says.
Another sign of potential weakness is the "crazy bullishness on gold" among the right-wing
pundits like Ron Paul who have a long-standing affinity for the medal.
"They're all on the bandwagon because of the rally in gold," he says.
As with gold, he expects a similar seasonal pattern in other precious metals and copper.
They will be weak from now through the end of the year, with a possible bounce in the middle of
October.
Michael Brush is a Manhattan-based financial writer who publishes the stock newsletter Brush
Up on Stocks. Brush has covered business for the New York Times and The Economist group. He
attended Columbia Business School in the Knight-Bagehot program. Günter
Wolfeschlegelsteinhausenbergerdorff 11 hours ago Only this September there is a the Fed, a
pandemic, Robinhood and Trump, and his corrupt administration. Factor in those variables and
it's impossible to predict what the market is going to do. Will remain in all cash till after
the election. Stuart Young 11 hours ago I don't believe that all of the damage caused by our
pandemic has been adequately summed up. Our U.S. Government may suffer huge consequences as a
result of trillions of dollars in new debt. The law of gravity can be defied on so long. LT
Murray 1 day ago Valualtions are now about where they were in the summer when there was all the
talk about a V-shaped recovery that is now known not to be the case.
The epidemic was almost certainly the knockout punch for many businesses that were already barely
surviving before the shock.
Notable quotes:
"... Needless to say, a rebound from the lockdowns was inevitable. All sorts of activities like dentist appointments on hold (and dentistry personnel accounted for 10% of the job gains), and so there's pent up demand for medical procedures and treatments, as well as more mundane services that many regard as critical, like haircuts. ..."
"... Multiple factors are working together to bias observers to underestimate the severity of Covid-19 economic damage. ..."
"... The first is that it has hit parts of the economy that are relatively removed from media coverage: low income service workers and small business owners. ..."
"... Second is that in the middle income to better off sections of the country, things still look reassuringly normal. ..."
"... Third is that due to optimism bias and/or having experienced the 1987 crash, the dotcom bust, and 9/11, many people are predisposed to believe that even if the pain of spring 2020 is acute, that the economy will rebound and nearly all of the damage will be erased by year end or say at worst, mid 2021. Underscoring that it a widespread tendency to see Mr. Market at the economy. ..."
"... Colleges will have a lot of trouble this fall. ..."
"... PPP loans are keeping workers on the books through late June-mid July, depending on when the loan came in. Many employers, ranging from museums to small manufacturers are saying they have to make deep headcount cuts then ..."
"... Cutting across all the categories of businesses suffering from Covid-19 damage .restaurants, shops in office districts, merchants in college towns, small manufacturers ..."
"... State and local governments are already hemorrhaging jobs and it will get worse ..."
"... But wages have been largely stagnant since at least 2000, and spending increases since 2010 were powered by rising personal and corporate debts. ..."
"... Both 4-year and 2-year community colleges produce RN's. Both have clinical (hospital) requirements. Of course, 4-year colleges produce RN's with greater academic depth. Doesn't mean they are better nurses. But they are the ones roaming the ICU's because they have the greater depth of knowledge. ..."
"... governments will seemingly fail to recognize that strong keynesian intervention is mandated and has to be maintained for long if they don't want depression to keep its course while the usual hawks are already asking for termination of state aid programs. We had first epidemic negationism and now we face economic negationism as if the value of stocks would by itself fix everything back to normal. Harder times ahead unfortunately. ..."
"... I think most of the long-term job losses will be low income jobs (less than $40k/year). This is the group that recent statistics showed is at spending levels similar to last year, but much of that is supported by federal stimulus money ($600/wk unemployment, $1,200 check, PPP). When that dries up, that spending will likely decline. Many of those low income jobs will not have come back for two years as they are in hospitality and entertainment types of sectors. The drive-thru fast-food and takeout restaurants are doing fine – everything else is suffering and many will go permanently out of business. It is going to be a bloodbath in downtown areas in major cities. ..."
"... Combined with a 3 trillion dollar spending bill, we have an unprecedented increase in aggregate demand from the average American. Now that the economy starts to open up a bit, there is actually something to spend the money on other than Amazon purchases. ..."
"... One of the biggest ironies of all is that the health care industry is suffering because the expense of treating coronavirus is not offset by enough income but it is still crowding out other services. I doubt any big hospitals will go under, but the small rural ones have been dropping like flies for a few years now. ..."
"... people are putting off going in for imaging procedures and lab work because they are afraid the clinics and hospital labs are dangerous places. ..."
"... My son's lender gave him 3 months "forbearance". At the end of the three months they billed him for a triple mortgage payment. ..."
"... One of the difficult things about the current situation is the remarkable shortage of PPE and the difficulty the manufacturing sector seems to have both meeting the existing demand and coming up with improved products at scale. Since PPE is safety-critical (failures will cause injury or death), and since almost all manufacturing seems to have been outsourced to China where quality is suspect at best, it's hard to be optimistic about the situation improving. In fact, as new protocols evolve around the world in which PPE is the new normal, shortages and counterfeit products seem likely to get worse. ..."
"... Sporting events (not that I follow any) have economic impact and there will not be any residual demand when they are permitted. ..."
"... While not directly connected to the pandemic, it is overlapping in timing of the economic damage. The collapse of oil prices has laid waste to the shale revolution. ..."
"... GDP growth . Forget it, it's over . De-growth is the new normal. This reality will become apparent as the parasites – hedge funds, private equity et al – begin to fall later this year. ..."
"... for retirees (who are of course at higher risk of COVID-19 fatality spectrum) there is no -- absolutely zero -- desire to hit the malls and the large stores. ..."
"... The mid-level pub and restaurant trade will be decimated. There was over-supply before and this is now chronically exposed. All we passed were shuttered -- some offering take-out, which might be a life line but they are typically too far from the town centres to compete with the cheap kebab, chicken and Indian walk-ups. Plus, people won't pay a gourmet premium to spoon something out of a foil tray themselves. However, at the lower end of the market, those fast-food places with drive-thrus will be fine -- queues round the block at McDonalds, KFC and Starbucks. ..."
"... Here in Oregon we have had a serious outbreak of Covid in a seafood packing plant in Newport. And we learn that the majority of the workforce come from Guatemala, Serbia, and Ukraine. How can this make economic sense? ..."
"... A large greenhouse (64 acres under glass) near here was the largest COVID cluster outside of NYC. Two hundred "guest" workers were housed 4 to a room, 2 in each bed at cheap motels. The Canadian owners pay local workers and "guests " $13/hour. But the labor contactor gets an amount on top, plus there is the housing, food and transportation for the "guests". ..."
"... Home sales here are really hot – a big exodus from Seattle is driving it. ..."
"... real wages for USA men at the 50% percentile level are down -5.1% over the 1979 to 2018 time frame. ..."
"... Given that the USA has had infrastructure declining (lowering quality of life), housing, medical and educational costs rising in excess of inflation, USA wage earners were hurting, at the median level, well before Covid-19 and well before 2000. ..."
"... Shops are already going under here in Silicon Valley. I've driven down Santa Cruz Ave. in Menlo Park a few times over the last week and there are a fair number of empty storefronts. It is the fancy shopping street in town. Since I don't actually shop there I couldn't tell what sorts of shops had closed. ..."
"... It's going to be deep and lasting because it only increases the systemic problem of growing income inequality. There were viruses before and there will be more after. In this case, the response was to grow the ghetto, faster. Fintech has to go in for the kill shot here ..."
"... DC control technology can only increase income inequality so long as it is the primary recipient of MMT. It's one and zeroes, a completely arbitrary binary outcome. ..."
Too many people who should know better are taking a big bounce in retail sales as a sign that an economic
recovery is well underway. It is, but only in the sense that going from the ICU to a hospital bed could also
be defined as a recovery. In keeping, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for the second quarter has improved
from negative 52.8% to a sunny negative 45.5%.
Needless to say, a rebound from the lockdowns was
inevitable. All sorts of activities like dentist appointments on hold (and dentistry personnel accounted for
10% of the job gains), and so there's pent up demand for medical procedures and treatments, as well as more
mundane services that many regard as critical, like haircuts.
Nevertheless, stock indices rising to new highs looks remarkably out of touch in light of the baked-in
and certain-to-continue-for-long-enough-to-matter damage. The true believers are in "Central banks are on
the case and will save us" mode. Perhaps they need to heed the warning, "Past results are no guarantee of
future performance."
Multiple factors are working together to bias observers to underestimate the severity of Covid-19
economic damage.
The first is that it has hit parts of the economy that are relatively removed from media coverage: low
income service workers and small business owners. Tell me how often CNN goes to interview the owner of a dry
cleaner or auto lube shop, even though small businesses have long been the generator of new jobs. Similarly,
notice how reports of Covid-19 infections at food processing facilities isn't covered until the capacity
taken out rises to a level where it might impact consumers. In keeping, Bloomberg had a story today,
More Food Shortages Loom With Outbreaks at 60 U.S Plants
, of outbreaks at non-meat processing
facilities, like fruit and vegetable packers and bakeries.
Second is that in the middle income to better off sections of the country, things still look reassuringly
normal. The lockdowns froze activity including business closures. I now live in a twee suburb, and in the
local shopping districts, there are not yet any vacant storefronts, even though some businesses in not so
prominent locations (a liquor store, the restaurant with the best pizza in the area, and an Olive Garden
branch, for starters) have folded; a lot of better restaurants have not reopened even though the lockdown
ended a couple of weeks ago.
On top of that, houses in tony suburban and exurban areas are in keen demand. So on top of feeling good
about their stock portfolios, upper middle class homeowners in those areas are positively chuffed about
reports of brisk property sales at strong prices.
Third is that due to optimism bias and/or having experienced the 1987 crash, the dotcom bust, and 9/11,
many people are predisposed to believe that even if the pain of spring 2020 is acute, that the economy will
rebound and nearly all of the damage will be erased by year end or say at worst, mid 2021. Underscoring that
it a widespread tendency to see Mr. Market at the economy.
This is far from a comprehensive list, but below are eight reasons why the deep damage to the economy
won't be reversed any time soon.
1. Business travel is not coming back any time soon. People are getting accustomed to Zoom. And word may
also get out that domestic flying is much worse than it used to be, which will be a deterrent to those who
might be so bold as to want to get on a plane. That is a fundamental blow to airlines, airport vendors,
hotels, restaurants, and convention centers. Hotel occupancy in April was 24.5% which if anything seems high
based on my personal datapoints. The pricings I see say that hotel operators are not expecting much if any
improvement through the summer. And as we discussed, hotels are at risk of creating a vicious cycle: they've
cut service levels drastically as a way to reduce the bleeding of the low occupancy rates. But even at
knocked-down prices, the degraded experience is enough to make travelers think twice about getting on the
road.
2. White collar workers will not be going back to offices in the old numbers. Elevators and public
transport, particularly commuter trains, are perceived as big risks. And a lot of cities can't cope well
with people driving in. NYC is extreme here but it's now short of parking space even with midtown looking
freakily underpopulated. Moreover, many large corporations, having had to figure out how to make work from
home manageable, have decided they can cope with it or even like it, so they plan to cut their office space
when lease renewals come up. That development will thin out tons of businesses near office buildings
4. Colleges will have a lot of trouble this fall. First, they are losing nearly all their
full-freight-paying Chinese students, between concern over US Covid-19 risks, Administration hostility, and
travel restrictions. That alone is a big blow.
On top of that, some are planning to reopen but MIT's announcement yesterday,
that it will not allow all students to return to campus,
probably represents a new normal. Well-placed
MIT alumni read the university's decision as driven significantly by a desire to protect faculty and staff;
I hear from sources with contacts at other universities that administrators that they see no way to put kids
in dorms without running unacceptably high Covid risks. Remember, even though kids almost never die of
Covid-19, but there is a risk of serious damage. 1/2 the asymptomatic cases on the Diamond Princess now show
abnormal lungs. And remember those cruises have half the people on board as crew, and the crew skews young.
College is a lot less appealing if you don't stay in a dorm.
Just as diminished activity in central business districts has negative knock-on effects to nearby
business, so to do hollowed-out colleges and universities have for their communities,
as described in more depth in a recent Bloomberg story
.
5. PPP loans are keeping workers on the books through late June-mid July, depending on when the loan came
in. Many employers, ranging from museums to small manufacturers are saying they have to make deep headcount
cuts then. Continuing unemployment claims already show that new hires are still being pretty much equaled by
job losses.
6. Cutting across all the categories of businesses suffering from Covid-19 damage .restaurants, shops in office districts,
merchants in college towns, small manufacturers Small
business owners have to guarantee loans personally unless they are able to finance their operations by
borrowing against real estate. Even SBA loans require a personal guarantee. So when consumers cheerily say
that restaurant owners or other operators will just declare Chapter 7 or 11 and then start their venture
afresh, they miss that these capitalists will be wiped out. They won't have the money to start over again.
And they may not have the pain tolerance either.
7. State and local governments are already hemorrhaging jobs and it will get worse. And in some, perhaps
many communities, the budget cuts will be so deep that they will degrade service levels. Less frequent
garbage collection and street repair is not good for business either.
8. The EU is not going to do enough stimulus to offset its own Covid-19 damage and Brexit is coming, a
shock to the EU and UK when both are already on the ropes. Roughly 25% of S&P earnings come from Europe. The
odds Italian banks will blow is rising all the time and that could be a CreditAnstalt-level event.
I'm sure readers can come up with additional items, but this list alone ought to be enough to curb the
enthusiasm of the economy cheerleaders. As Marshall Auerback said by e-mail:
American household spending in the 1960s was powered by rising wages and growing home equity. But
wages have been largely stagnant since at least 2000, and spending increases since 2010 were powered by
rising personal and corporate debts. House values are now stagnant at best, and will likely fall in the
months ahead. Faced with radical uncertainty, US consumers will save more and spend less. Even if the
government replaces their lost incomes for a time, people know that stimulus is short term. What they do
not know is when the next job offer – or layoff – will come along.
Moreover, people do distinguish between needs and wants. Americans need to eat, but they mostly don't
need to eat out. They don't need to travel. Restaurant owners and airlines therefore have two problems:
they can't cover costs while their capacity is limited for public-health reasons, and demand would be
down even if the coronavirus disappeared. This explains why many businesses are not reopening even though
they legally can. Others are reopening, but fear they cannot hold out for long. And the many millions of
workers in America's vast services sector are realizing that their jobs are simply not essential.
Universities have been very adept at squeezing themselves into occupations to make them a required
third party. So nursing was once an occupation that a lot of people could do but in many countries
now, if you want to be a nurse you have to be university qualified.
In previous times an
apprenticeship was the main requirement with state given examinations at the end of it. I think that
this could be true of doctors as well. But no in ore and more occupations, unless you have the
university qualifications, you can't do the job.
Let me just say that having college trained, licensed RN's are important. They are the one's who
actually make a hospital function. The skills needed to be a qualified RN are well beyond
apprenticeship.
I've spent some critical time in a hospital and the ability of attending RN's (both ICU and
general unit) to understand the broader implications of a doctor's directive and the comprehension
of computational details involved with medicine application is beyond me. It's too much work for my
mind; and I'm one of those licensed professionals mandated by the state.
And this ignores the "soft skills" needed to provide care to patients. (If you've ever been
tended by a male nurse, you'll know what I'm saying.)
Erm, I have been tended by a male nurse and I don't know what you mean.
What I have observed (as a patient and friend-of-patient) is that community college trained
nurses, who, in my part of the world, start working on wards in the first week, are better
nurses than the university-trained ones who don't see a patient until year two. Many would have
washed out early on if they had actually contact with patients right away. You can generally
spot them, they clutch their clipboards as if they were shields and flee to positions in admin
ASAP.
Both 4-year and 2-year community colleges produce RN's. Both have clinical (hospital)
requirements. Of course, 4-year colleges produce RN's with greater academic depth. Doesn't
mean they are better nurses. But they are the ones roaming the ICU's because they have the
greater depth of knowledge.
My main point was a simple one: modern day nursing skills cannot be gained through
apprenticeship. It requires sustained study, instruction, and clinical experience.
The epidemic was almost certainly the knockout punch for many businesses that were already barely
surviving before the shock.
And governments will seemingly fail to recognize that strong keynesian
intervention is mandated and has to be maintained for long if they don't want depression to keep its course
while the usual hawks are already asking for termination of state aid programs. We had first epidemic
negationism and now we face economic negationism as if the value of stocks would by itself fix everything
back to normal. Harder times ahead unfortunately.
Well said, Ignacio. I would add that this may be a knockout punch for globalization as we know it.
John Ralston Saul suggested this already happened two decades ago (it takes awhile for ideologies to die
in the minds of the elite, right?). I don't know how we are going to functionally transition to "positive
nationalism" (ie. citizen based economics) but you presented a key ingredient, IMHO, when you wrote:
"strong keynesian intervention is mandated and has to be maintained for long if they don't want
depression to keep its course"
There is only one reason to remove or not implement Federal support for the population at large and
SMEs: The "hawks" want (for them or for their clients) to buy properties and stuff on the cheap.
Yves, the "forgiveness terms" on the PPP loans have been amended from the initial up to 75% of
$100,000 spent on salaries within
eight
weeks of PPP loan distribution to a
24
week period. I believe this change will allow smaller businesses to survive for a longer
period.
I think these changes will help employees of only a limited subset of businesses, those
businesses that hadn't previously applied but which will now apply because of the changed terms.
The new terms don't increase the amount of the loan, they just change how much of it will be
forgiven. My company received a PPP loan under the original terms, the changes make the amount
forgiven somewhat greater, but the cash won't last any longer. The real beneficiaries of the
changes will be owners (including myself), who now will have to repay less of the loan.
No, this is the reverse. It's not a matter of distribution, it's a matter of how long the
business can afford to keep the staff.
Even assuming the PPP paid enough for full salary recovery (for some businesses, it doesn't; a
friend with a manufacturing business got only $420K versus her $700K payroll because some of her
employees are high skill and make over $100K), extending the time helps only for businesses that
were entirely closed, like restaurants. It did NOT increase the amount distributed. That was set
based on 8 weeks of payroll as 75% of the total distributed.
So if after paying full payroll for eight weeks (now eight weeks from when you started
supporting salaries) and your business clearly can't support the payroll, you will cut staff.
Moreover, the amendment on the fly was of limited help. A lot of business like restaurants (per
a WSJ story yesterday( didn't apply because the 8 week requirement was in affect when the program
had funds to distribute.
A zigzag economy. Or even better, stairsteppin down to lower states of 'commerce', much of it
'informal', out of the prying noses of taxman everywhere .. that too, uh, works in my admittedly
cloudy seer's eye.
If ever there was a time that the establishment would fight a job guarantee program it is now.
When they say they need to be able to "compete" it's all about bringing wages down. Nothing does that
more than mass unemployment. Every industry is going to squeeze wages to make up for lost demand that you
nor your children should hold your breath about returning. Sports and entertainment – big squeeze. Keep a
close eye on the battles with the unions.
I see people desperately mincing about like there will be a return to "like it was in 2019."
Wandering around in their deluded dreamworld as if all of this was like a season of the tv series Dallas
back in the eighties – an entire season written off as another characters dream.
In my little town of Sebastopol at least half the restaurants will go out of business, the one used
bookstore is shuttered and quite a few of the tourist dependent shops will be going out of business.
Vacation rentals are being allowed again, it's too early to tell if they will be OK yet.
July 4th will be a good indicator.
Real Estate prices are looking wobbly.
I did get my first haircut since January and now sport bright blue mohawk.
I think most of the long-term job losses will be low income jobs (less than $40k/year). This is the group
that recent statistics showed is at spending levels similar to last year, but much of that is supported by
federal stimulus money ($600/wk unemployment, $1,200 check, PPP). When that dries up, that spending will
likely decline. Many of those low income jobs will not have come back for two years as they are in
hospitality and entertainment types of sectors. The drive-thru fast-food and takeout restaurants are doing
fine – everything else is suffering and many will go permanently out of business. It is going to be a
bloodbath in downtown areas in major cities.
The economy will lose a significant amount of consumer spending when the below median income have
significantly lower income because they spend that income. That will reduce corporate revenues and sales tax
collection.
White collar workers working from home will do fine. They will also continue saving money instead of
spending it since they won't be travelling for pleasure or business or going out for food or entertainment.
Recent statistics indicate that in early June, the top 25% income category reduced their credit card
spending by 17% compared to pre-coronavirus while the lower income people reduced their spending 4%. This is
the same reason that the Republican tax cuts don't work to boost the economy – they give the money to people
who don't spend it, so it doesn't create economic growth, although it does create asset bubbles.
Reduced state and local tax revenues means the layoffs are already starting in the public sector. There
are so many public sector layoff requirements that saving a dollar in salary is only saving $0.30 in the
first year after laying off the employee. So the layoffs are likely to be deep. A cost effective approach is
that state and local governments will simply not hire to fill positions of recent retirees because then they
get 100% savings, so younger folks hoping for government work are going to be disappointed for at least a
couple of years. State and local governments reduciton in spending was a significant damper on the fianncial
crisis recovery and will be one here as well.
I think we are staring at 10% unemployment for at least 2 years. Real unemployment may be significantly
higher as discouraged workers don't get counted. Also, with so many baby boomers entering Social Security
eligibility, they may be forced to retire early and take reduced social security payments for the rest of
their lives. That will be a drag on the economy for the next 30 years as social security benefits
recirculate in the same month they get paid.
I don't think you are appreciating the magnitude of months on end of low wage workers salaries being
doubled, combined with a huge drop in federal tax revenue. Also, congress is certainly not stupid enough
to allow the additional unemployment benefits to expire going into an election (afterwards, certainly).
Combined with a 3 trillion dollar spending bill, we have an unprecedented increase in aggregate demand
from the average American. Now that the economy starts to open up a bit, there is actually something to
spend the money on other than Amazon purchases.
Consumption is our economy, and if you don't think we are going to continue seeing huuuge retail sales
numbers > earnings > GDP then you are way off base IMO. We are effectively already instituting a generous
UBI. Yes, many small businesses have and will tragically fail and we are in a complete mess in many ways,
but sectoral balance always wins out. The private sector hasn't had a surplus like this since I don't
even know when? WWII maybe? This certainly blows away the response we had in 2008.
All this spells term #2 for the Donald in my outlook. The dems threw everything they possibly could at
him and it failed miserably. And it serves them right, run a real candidate with real policy positions
instead of incessantly whining about the guy who is in there now. Not sure how long it is going to take
for the left to wake up
9. Low income people, with the most propensity to spend,
can't if they don't have income for a long time.
Here's a horrifying
thread with video and pics
of an 8 hour wait
to apply for UI in Kentucky. And there are people who applied
in March and April who still haven't been serviced.
As an extra bonus, (nonperformative) mask usage in the line looks like it's about 50%,
so some of these poor souls will soon have other things to worry about.
Mitch's solution for his hard-pressed constituents:
More judges.
One of the biggest ironies of all is that the health care industry is suffering because the expense of
treating coronavirus is not offset by enough income but it is still crowding out other services. I doubt any
big hospitals will go under, but the small rural ones have been dropping like flies for a few years now.
I
had my yearly yesterday and my new doc is voicing her frustration with the way information is so mishandled,
not to mention that the tests for antibodies are virtually useless, and she thinks it will take at least a
year to get some kind of yearly shot for corona.
We might never see an actual vaccination. She mentioned
that people are putting off going in for imaging procedures and lab work because they are afraid the clinics
and hospital labs are dangerous places.
> What is forbearance? It is a lender's temporary willingness not to collect interest or principal
payments on a loan.
My son's lender gave him 3 months "forbearance". At the end of the three months they billed him for a
triple mortgage payment. Fortunately he was able to remain employed and had banked the 3 payments. I expect he is one of the only
people to do so.
Such "forbearance" sounds like a vicious scam.
It is not at all a well known concept. It just lets you pay late with no penalty. It does not relieve
you of your obligation.
Having said that (and I need to turn in so I am not about to find the link) I am told a NY Post
article said that tenants in NYC were pretty much paying as usual, so they seemed to appreciate that this
forbearance business was not much of a break.
Just wait till federal tax time become 'un'-deferred. How many, especially the precarious within
the middleclasses, not be able to pay what's owed? .. or .. incensed at the transparently unfair
government/fed reserve plays, just throw up their proverbial hands, and say 'Screw this!!! Wall Street
made Bank thankyouverymuch! .. why am I not held to the Same standard??'
A minor point: I've read that if absolutely everyone wore a mask we could resume many of our activities.
Maybe. But personally, I find them semi-suffocating, even the fairly loose-fitting cloth variety. I believe
in their worth but the nauseating experience of light oxygen deprivation causes me to avoid most outings or
activities that require them. I can't imagine how medical professionals wear these things so often. Maybe it
takes some getting used to.
Is anyone else similarly annoyed? Again, I believe in the value of mask wearing; I just find it nearly
unbearable.
I find the most objectionable thing to be glasses fogging, with suffocation a close second. I imagine
one can eventually get used to it, since, e.g., surgeons wear them for hours at a stretch every day of
their working lives.
One of the difficult things about the current situation is the remarkable shortage of PPE and the
difficulty the manufacturing sector seems to have both meeting the existing demand and coming up with
improved products at scale. Since PPE is safety-critical (failures will cause injury or death), and since
almost all manufacturing seems to have been outsourced to China where quality is suspect at best, it's
hard to be optimistic about the situation improving. In fact, as new protocols evolve around the world in
which PPE is the new normal, shortages and counterfeit products seem likely to get worse.
Obviously this is one area where a wartime level of federally driven domestic production efforts would
make total sense, but this would require acknowledging that coronavirus is real, and with Donald "nothing
to see here" Trump in the White House this seems unlikely to happen any time soon.
I don't even notice mine, to the point where I sometimes try to spoon food thru it
I dunno, maybe it's because I used to have a beard? In combination with the fact that I was an avid
bicyclist so just walking around, let alone sitting in front of a computer, just doesn't require much
air?
I don't care for them, but since I am working at home and don't go anywhere -- my lovely and talented
wife also does shopping -- I only needed a mask once for an unavoidable shopping trip. She had a birthday.
We got a very nice pear torte from the local chocolaterie!
I do work, play games with the kids, and eat well. I putter about in the wood shop. (Hand tools are
the secret for avoiding masks there.) I'm really quite a bit happier than before the outbreak. We seem to
be able to hide out from the virus on our homestead in the Santa Cruz Mountains redwoods. With that, the
clean air, decreased car noise and no commute, I'm wondering why we didn't do this before!
I'm sure it will all come crashing down when school starts again, but for the moment, life is grand.
While I agree with this, I wonder if it's missing the other side. For example, when more people work from
home, they still need to eat and don't necessarily have time to cook. Will suburban and neighborhood
restaurants and delivery services see an uptick? Obviously, this doesn't help the city center businesses,
but maybe it evens out a bit when spread across the entire economy. That is, a lot of current businesses are
in a bad way, but maybe the economy will restructure around the "new normal".
Takeout is way less profitable than sitdown. Restaurants here closed after briefly trying takeout
because they could not make it work (three in a less than ten minute driving distance). The only ones I
anticipate that will do OK are venues with tiny sit down spaces, where they were set up as mainly
takeout.
Sporting events (not that I follow any) have economic impact and there will not be any residual demand
when they are permitted. And surely some people will be reluctant to enter arenas with thousands of screaming
fans. Locally, Syracuse has SU football and basketball (drawing 20-40,000), a triple A baseball team and a
minor league hockey team. I don't know how many game nights there are locally, but I'd guess 100+. There is
a certain amount of out of town people attending same.
Same is true for live entertainment or the NY State Fair (close to 100,000 daily attendance for a 2 week
run). All these things are cancelled and there won't be make up dates or residual demand.
The impact of non-events (like forgone haircuts or meals out) will take some time to work through the
broader economy. Also, habits will change even if there is a vaccine or miracle cure.
I suspect that the really interesting and alarming consequences are going to come from the interaction of
a number of these factors, sometimes in unforeseeable ways. Consider, for example, what other industries or
sectors are impacted by business travel: travel companies, foreign exchange companies, airport duty free
shops, taxi companies, car hire companies, makers of business travel applications for smartphones,
translators and interpreters, portable computers and electronics of all kinds, adapter plugs, expensive
luggage of all kinds, upper-tier restaurants and hotels where foreign languages are spoken, sources of
business entertainment, certain personal services, um, sometimes sought by travelling businessmen, security
staff at hotels, insurance companies, risk-management consultancies, medical and vaccination services,
dry-cleaning services, spas and beauty services, legal advisers on doing business, even the little shop in
the lobby that sells business books, expensive souvenirs and overpriced essentials that you typically
forget.
None of these industries will necessarily disappear, but all will lose the most lucrative part of
their business.
In conjunction with fewer tourists though, (which must now be a given) some or all of them
may go down, or at least be drastically reduced. And it's likely that there'll be a general retrenchment of
staff deployed abroad and the presence of international organisations. So if you do eventually get that trip
to exotic destination you have been promising yourself for some years, you may find that there are no decent
hotels or restaurants and no proper taxi service to your run-down hotel where nobody speaks English.
The other thing is tertiary education, where the problems go well beyond a lack of Chinese students (who can
still register to study remotely of course). A number of universities in Europe have simply cancelled all
in-person classes next year, and there is a huge and rather ill-directed effort under way to establish
complete online learning systems. Nobody has any idea what the long-term consequences of this will be, for
jobs, research, careers and even the survival of many institutions, but they won't be pretty. A lot of
degrees simply can't be done on line. And of course the economies of many towns and cities are partially
dependent on students and staff spending money, and buying and renting houses.
So if you live in a small but pleasant university town with a flourishing tourist industry, a science
park and an international conference centre, you own a restaurant and your brother owns a taxi company, it
might be time to consider something else.
While not directly connected to the pandemic, it is overlapping in timing of the economic damage. The
collapse of oil prices has laid waste to the shale revolution. Prior to the oil price war oil production and
the money being poured into it was actually a substantial portion of GDP growth. That isn't likely coming
back soon if every.
GDP growth . Forget it, it's over . De-growth is the new normal. This reality will become apparent as
the parasites – hedge funds, private equity et al – begin to fall later this year.
Anecdotals from my visit the past two days with my mother-in-law. A lot of pent-up cash from well-heel'ed pensioners who had booked expensive vacations but have now
cancelled. Several are going to replace not old but not new either cars using the holiday fund. So some
uptick will come from that.
As for retail, the garden centres were doing a good trade at the checkouts but the upscale cafes which
are usually attached are still closed and this is what makes the difference in this sector of retail's
business model here between break-even (at best) and good profits. But they'll survive.
However, for retirees (who are of course at higher risk of COVID-19 fatality spectrum) there is no --
absolutely zero
-- desire to hit the malls and the large stores. Even if it wasn't for trying to
maintain social distances, the prospect if you're in your seventies or eighties to queue (usually for a time
in the open air) for an uncertain wait
just to get in
is a huge disincentive.
Add in the lack of
catering and this is going to be hit very hard if my sampling is anything to go by.
The mid-level pub and restaurant trade will be decimated. There was over-supply before and this is now
chronically exposed. All we passed were shuttered -- some offering take-out, which might be a life line but
they are typically too far from the town centres to compete with the cheap kebab, chicken and Indian
walk-ups. Plus, people won't pay a gourmet premium to spoon something out of a foil tray themselves.
However, at the lower end of the market, those fast-food places with drive-thrus will be fine -- queues round
the block at McDonalds, KFC and Starbucks.
Residential real estate is also mixed. Nice places in good lots in ready-to-move-into condition have sold
-- retirees moving from London and the Home Counties have lots of equity and are buying for the long term
(well, as long term as you get aged 65-75) so aren't interested in the losing sleep over the possibility of
a 10 or 20% correction if one happens -- they want to move usually to be nearer family, to get out of
over-developed London and the South East and to enjoy a retirement lifestyle.
However, properties which are not retiree-friendly (e.g. not bungalows or apartments in full-service
blocks with lifts) are a serious drag on the market. This
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-70609848.html
had hung around for ages for the
vendor. I suspect it is an executor sale. Traditionally, disaster-areas like this property is would get
bought by developers (usually builders) to flip after gutting and refurbing but of course, this
business-model is
utterly
dependent on not overpaying in the first place in a falling market. Here,
the owner is just calling it quits and auctioning it off (very unusual in the UK property market but
probably the right thing to do as at least it'll be settled and they'll get their money without the hassle
and stress of something that might sit there unsold incurring maintenance costs and property taxes for a
year and even if it does sell, it'll be a low offer because of the condition it is in and would entail
possibly a collapse-prone chain that could all fall through at any minute). So residential real estate here
in the UK -- a crucial part of what props up the wider economy -- is showing early signs of stagnation and is
very quality- and price-dependent.
Here in Oregon we have had a serious outbreak of Covid in a seafood packing plant in Newport. And we
learn that the majority of the workforce come from Guatemala, Serbia, and Ukraine.
How can this make economic sense?
Clearly the wages are too low for native Oregonians. But Newport Seafood must pay gangmasters whose fees
include travel (bus from Guatemala, several planes from Serbia and Ukraine) plus accommodation for the
crews.
The set-up seems both crazy and an excellent way to spread the virus. Added to which many of the
Guatemaltecos speak a dialect called Mam which makes contract tracing more difficult.
Surely paying decent wages, in Oregon, Guatemala, Serbia and Ukraine, would be a tidier solution for all of
us.
A large greenhouse (64 acres under glass) near here was the largest COVID cluster outside of NYC. Two
hundred "guest" workers were housed 4 to a room, 2 in each bed at cheap motels.
The Canadian owners pay local workers and "guests " $13/hour. But the labor contactor gets an amount
on top, plus there is the housing, food and transportation for the "guests".
If one were cynical /s/ one might think the game is to have a reserve army of "guests", ready, willing
and able to displace any uppity locals.
Maybe if the Canadian owners paid $25/hour for locals, no guests would be required. BTW, they pay no
property tax on the $100M facility and get cut rate electricity.
Here in our small town (pop. around 14,000) the local food processing plant which cans peas, corn, and
other vegetables was the site of a 400% increase in CV cases. It is the biggest spike we have seen, going
went from 18 cases to almost 90 in the space of a couple of weeks, although our county is still doing
pretty well in general. The plant was shut down for a couple of week but now seems to be running again, I
assume with greater safety measures now implemented. At one time it was mostly local white guys who
worked in the plant but nowadays there is a much larger percentage of Hispanic workers.
Here in the suburbs of DFW houses are selling like hotcakes. Not exaggerating. Multiple offers and
prices over list. Selling in days after listing. I can't fathom this in Covid times. The uncertainty
alone makes that impossible to consider.
A family down the street just sold to move into a house a couple miles away that has a pool. Are they
not noticing that the economy is in shambles? Does it not occur to them that the knock-on effects might
eventually affect their household? Even if your job is safe now, it doesn't mean that it will be in the
future! Maybe now is not the right time to make a major upgrade like that! I just can't
In the meantime my taxes and insurance are going up.
Exodus from San Antone and Austin (and everywhere else) is what worries me bunch of rich folks
invading this place is the last thing i want.
Local PTB kept it in check for a long while yammering on about the radium in the water (you'd hafta
keep a sink-full overnight, in a closed up house, for 75 years for it to have a measurable effect)
Most of this clandestine effort was to keep the big cities from taking our groundwater but it had
the ancillary effect of limiting ingress to rich anti-science types(sigh).
The people who can afford to move right now I assume are not people i'd want as neighbors Todds and
Karens, bringing Civilisation to us hill people.
If you have plenty of cash, a downturn is the time to buy, assuming prices are cheaper. I'm not
sure they are, yet. Not enough forced sales yet, I'd imagine.
On the flip side, once you realize that your employer will probably let you telecommute from Vail,
CO, the condo in the big city may seem inconvenient to the slopes. I imagine there is some demand in
that dimension too. For the less adventurous, there are always the 'burbs.
I live on the North Olympic Peninsula. 'Tourism' is probably gonna suck going forward, especially if
lockdowns resume due to any future viral hotspot flareups. Our downtown has partially opened up, but for
how long ??
We also have 2 large building projects going on downtown – construction having begun last summer, came to
a standstill when the virus hit, then resumed. Both venues predicated to some extent on out of towners
spending their $$$ here. I think the virus just put the kibosh on those rosy plans.
Re: "American household spending in the 1960s was powered by rising wages and growing home equity. But
wages have been largely stagnant since at least 2000"
Starting the clock at 2000 glosses over the wage data from earlier years, which was none too good.
When women's earnings are added in the real wages at the 50% percentile level have risen a total of 6.1%
over the 40 year inclusive time frame.
Given that the USA has had infrastructure declining (lowering quality of life), housing, medical and
educational costs rising in excess of inflation, USA wage earners were hurting, at the median level, well
before Covid-19 and well before 2000.
One might argue that many wage earners have adjusted to this new normal BEFORE Covid-19 and this could
steel them somewhat for Covid-19 effects.
Shops are already going under here in Silicon Valley. I've driven down Santa Cruz Ave. in Menlo Park a
few times over the last week and there are a fair number of empty storefronts. It is the fancy shopping
street in town. Since I don't actually shop there I couldn't tell what sorts of shops had closed.
It is hardly the most important detail in the story, but I see 24 Hour Fitness is closing 100
locations. I would visit one when I was in Dallas. It was the best gym I've been to, lots of very well
selected equipment, the only place I ever saw with 2.5 dumbbell increments up to 52.5 lbs, many trainer
toys, pleasant space. This is a real shame, and I am sure other readers will see names of businesses they
patronized and liked.
It's going to be deep and lasting because it only increases the systemic problem of growing income
inequality. There were viruses before and there will be more after. In this case, the response was to grow
the ghetto, faster. Fintech has to go in for the kill shot here.
DC control technology can only increase income inequality so long as it is the primary recipient of MMT.
It's one and zeroes, a completely arbitrary binary outcome.
A: when the only difference is perception, electronic money.
Relative to the planet, let alone the universe, there is no such thing as an expert. Having tribes of
experts competing to see who gets to play God on any particular day can only result in a completely
artificial world.
The video game industry are making out like bandits, for now at least.
Wonder how this will impact the coming console generation though. How many people will have four or five
hundred spare smackers for a new system (or twice that for both new systems), plus new games at 60 bucks
each?
And will the assembly lines in Taiwan and China even be running? Nintendo was expecting to have its
production back up by this month, yet the Switch is still out of stock almost everywhere. And that's for an
existing, well established production line.
@ Grieved | Dec 19 2020 6:01 utc | 135 with the rant about the Dems and Medicare for
All
The US government has been financialized like the majority of the Fortune 500. Since the
1970's the trajectory in the US has been to reduce government spending on social safety net
programs and privatize the Social Security Insurance program. While SSI was raped by
Reagan/Greenspan/Congress and taken from the independence of actuaries and made a political
budget football including false claims of being and "entitlement" program the safety net
social programs fared worse. In the early 1970's, when I was familiar with the planning for
and provision of social services like for developmental disabilities, alcoholism, mental
health, job search help, infancy care (WIC) and drug abuse, the concept of continuum of care
helped the different agencies collaborate and really help folks. Then the Fed stared changing
the rules of the way money was to be spent that developed columns of services that don't
interact/coordinate with each other as well as reducing overall low income support.
I also want to add to what you wrote earlier that humanity use to make other than the
throw-away-to-churn-the-money-mill products that were both designed and built better/to last.
It fits with our throw away food system with all that packaging and none of it refillable,
seemingly by design.....
....
....
because as I continue to write here, its all about the God of Mammon instead of the support
of the masses social structure with the underpinning of the God of Mammon way of life is
controlled by the global private financed owned elite and the support of the masses way of
life is exampled biggly currently by China.
The poverty myth that there is little or no poverty is all too common. In fact, the United
States has one of the highest poverty rates in the developed world. One study ranked the
United States 29 of 31 OECD countries in 2012. When it comes to child poverty, things are
even worse. A UNICEF report found that the United States ranked 34 of 35 developed
countries – only Romania had a higher child poverty rate.
Do you think a nation like this has the means to build Medicare for All? I don't think
so.
The wonderful world you talk about was not experienced by the peoples of Guatemala, Iran,
Chile, Honduras, Nicaragua, Mexico, Argentinia, Haiti, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Iran, Iraq,
Libya, Syria and many of the homeless and destitute in the US, UK, Japan etc. The wonderful
world you describe is an illusion.
There is a line from the 1960s Science Fiction series called the Invaders from another
galaxy who wish take over the world. At the beginning of each episode the narrator says " they
wish to take over the world and make it their world".
The Transnational Financiers have been working towards that goal for centuries!!!!
"... Trump and Giuliani are vulgar and buffoonish, but they play the same slimy game as their Democratic opponents. The Republicans scapegoat the deep state, communists and now, bizarrely, Venezuela; the Democrats scapegoat Russia. The widening disconnect from reality by the ruling elite is intended to mask their complicity in the seizure of power by predatory global corporations and billionaires. ..."
"... Silicon Valley billionaires, including Facebook cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt, donated more than $100 million to a Democratic super PAC that created a torrent of anti-Trump TV ads in the final weeks of the campaign to elect Biden. The heavy infusion of corporate money to support Biden wasn't done to protect democracy. It was done because these corporations and billionaires know a Biden administration will serve their interests. ..."
"... Democratic Senator Chris Murphy told CNN during this campaign that Russian disinformation efforts are "more problematic" than in 2016. He warned that "this time around, the Russians have decided to cultivate U.S. citizens as assets. They are attempting to try to spread their propaganda in the mainstream media." ..."
"... This will be the official mantra of the Democratic Party, a vicious redbaiting campaign without actual reds, especially as the country spirals out of control. The reason I have a show on Russia-funded RT America ..."
"... Voice of America ..."
"... World Socialist Web Site, ..."
"... We let these companies get this monopolistic share of the distribution system. Now they're exercising that power. ..."
"... In the Soviet Union the truth was passed, often hand to hand, in underground samizdat documents, clandestine copies of news and literature banned by the state. The truth will endure. It will be heard by those who seek it out. It will expose the mendacity of the powerful, however hard it will be to obtain. Despotisms fear the truth. They know it is a mortal threat. If we remain determined to live in truth, no matter the cost, we have a chance. ..."
40
Comments on Chris Hedges: The Ruling Elite's War on Truth American political leaders
display a widening disconnect from reality intended to mask their complicity in the seizure of
power by global corporations and billionaires. By Chris Hedges / Original to ScheerPost
Joe Biden's victory instantly obliterated the Democratic Party's longstanding charge that
Russia was hijacking and compromising US elections. The Biden victory, the Democratic Party
leaders and their courtiers in the media now insist, is evidence that the democratic process is
strong and untainted, that the system works. The elections ratified the will of the people.
But imagine if Donald Trump had been reelected. Would the Democrats and pundits at The New
York Time s , CNN and MSNBC pay homage to a fair electoral process? Or, having spent
four years trying to impugn the integrity of the 2016 presidential race, would they once again
haul out the blunt instrument of Russian interference to paint Trump as Vladimir Putin's
Manchurian candidate?
Trump and Giuliani are vulgar and buffoonish, but they play the same slimy game as their
Democratic opponents. The Republicans scapegoat the deep state, communists and now, bizarrely,
Venezuela; the Democrats scapegoat Russia. The widening disconnect from reality by the ruling
elite is intended to mask their complicity in the seizure of power by predatory global
corporations and billionaires.
... ... ...
The two warring factions within the ruling elite, which fight primarily over the spoils of
power while abjectly serving corporate interests, peddle alternative realities. If the deep
state and Venezuelan socialists or Russia intelligence operatives are pulling the strings no
one in power is accountable for the rage and alienation caused by the social inequality, the
unassailability of corporate power, the legalized bribery that defines our political process,
the endless wars, austerity and de-industrialization. The social breakdown is, instead, the
fault of shadowy phantom enemies manipulating groups such as Black Lives Matters or the Green
Party.
"The people who run this country have run out of workable myths with which to distract the
public, and in a moment of extreme crisis have chosen to stoke civil war and defame the rest of
us – black and white – rather than admit to a generation of corruption, betrayal,
and mismanagement," Matt Taibbi writes.
These fictional narratives are dangerous. They erode the credibility of democratic
institutions and electoral politics. They posit that news and facts are no longer true or
false. Information is accepted or discarded based on whether it hurts or promotes one faction
over another. While outlets such as Fox News have always existed as an arm of the Republican
Party, this partisanship has now infected nearly all news organizations, including publications
such as The New York Times and The Washington Post , along with the major tech
platforms that disseminate information and news. A fragmented public with no common narrative
believes whatever it wants to believe.
... ... ...
The flagrant partisanship and discrediting of truth across the political spectrum are
swiftly fueling the rise of an authoritarian state. The credibility of democratic institutions
and electoral politics, already deeply corrupted by PACs, the electoral college, lobbyists, the
disenfranchisement of third-party candidates, gerrymandering and voter suppression, is being
eviscerated.
Silicon Valley billionaires, including Facebook cofounder Dustin Moskovitz and ex-Google
CEO Eric Schmidt, donated more than $100 million to a Democratic super PAC that created a
torrent of anti-Trump TV ads in the final weeks of the campaign to elect Biden. The heavy
infusion of corporate money to support Biden wasn't done to protect democracy. It was done
because these corporations and billionaires know a Biden administration will serve their
interests.
The press, meanwhile, has largely given up on journalism. It has retreated into competing
echo chambers that only speak to true believers. This catering exclusively to one demographic,
which it sets against another demographic, is commercially profitable. But it also guarantees
the balkanization of the United States and edges us closer and closer to fratricide.
When Trump leaves the White House millions of his enraged supports, hermetically sealed
inside hyperventilating media platforms that feed back to them their rage and hate, will see
the vote as fraudulent, the political system as rigged, and the establishment press as
propaganda. They will target, I fear, through violence, the Democratic Party politicians,
mainstream media outlets and those they demonize as conspiratorial members of the deep state,
such as Dr. Anthony Fauci. The Democratic Party is as much to blame for this disintegration as
Trump and the Republican Party.
The election of Biden is also very bad news for journalists such as Matt Taibbi, Glen Ford,
Margaret Kimberley, Glenn Greenwald, Jeffrey St. Clair or Robert Scheer who refuse to be
courtiers to the ruling elites. Journalists that do not spew the approved narrative of the
right-wing, or, alternatively, the approved narrative of the Democratic Party, have a
credibility the ruling elite fears.
The worse things get – and they will get worse as the pandemic leaves hundreds of
thousands dead and thrusts millions of Americans into severe economic distress –the more
those who seek to hold the ruling elites, and in particular the Democratic Party, accountable
will be targeted and censored in ways familiar to WikiLeaks and Julian Assange, now in a London
prison and facing possible extradition to the United States and life imprisonment.
Barack Obama's assault on civil liberties, which included the repeated misuse of the
Espionage Act to prosecute whistleblowers, the passage of Section 1021 of the National Defense
Authorization Act (NDAA) to permit the military to act as a domestic police force and the
ordering of the assassination of U.S. citizens deemed to be terrorists in Yemen, was far worse
than those of George W. Bush. Biden's assault on civil liberties, I suspect, will surpass those
of the Obama administration.
The censorship was heavy handed during the campaign. Digital media platforms, including
Google, Twitter, YouTube and Facebook, along with the establishment press worked shamelessly as
propaganda arms for the Biden campaign. They were determined not to make the "mistake" they
made in 2016 when they reported on the damaging emails, released by WikiLeaks, from Hillary
Clinton's campaign chairman John Podesta. Although the emails were genuine, papers such as The
New York Times routinely refer to the Podesta emails as "disinformation." This, no doubt,
pleases its readership, 91 percent of whom identify as Democrats according to the Pew Research
Center. But it is another example of journalistic malfeasance.
Following the election of Trump, the media outlets that cater to a Democratic Party
readership made amends. The New York Times was one of the principal platforms that amplified
Russiagate conspiracies, most of which turned out to be false. At the same time, the paper
largely ignored the plight of the disposed working class that supported Trump. When the
Russiagate story collapsed, the paper pivoted to focus on race, embodied in the 1619 Project.
The root cause of social disintegration -- the neoliberal order, austerity and
deindustrialization -- was ignored since naming it would alienate the paper's corporate
advertisers and the elites on whom the paper depends for access.
Once the 2020 election started, The New York Times and other mainstream outlets censored and
discredited information that could hurt Biden, including a tape of Joe Biden speaking with
former Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, which appears to be authentic. They gave
credibility to any rumor, however spurious, which was unfavorable to Trump. Twitter and
Facebook blocked access to a New York Post story about the emails allegedly found on Hunter
Biden's discarded laptop.
Twitter locked the New York Post out of its own account for over a week. Glenn Greenwald,
whose article on Hunter Biden was censored by his editors at The Intercept, which he helped
found, resigned. He released the email exchanges with his editors over his article. Ignoring
the textual evidence of censorship, editors and writers at The Intercept engaged in a public
campaign of character assassination against Greenwald. This sordid behavior by self-identified
progressive journalists is a page out of the Trump playbook and a sad commentary on the
collapse of journalistic integrity.
The censorship and manipulation of information was honed and perfected against WikiLeaks.
When WikiLeaks tries to release information, it is hit with botnets or distributed denial of
service attacks. Malware attacks WikiLeaks' domain and website. The WikiLeaks site is
routinely shut down or unable to serve its content to its readers. Attempts by WikiLeaks to
hold press conferences see the audio distorted and the visual images corrupted. Links to
WikiLeaks events are delayed or cut. Algorithms block the dissemination of WikiLeaks content.
Hosting services, including Amazon, removed WikiLeaks from its servers. Julian Assange, after
releasing the Iraqi war logs, saw his bank accounts and credit cards frozen. WikiLeaks' PayPal
accounts were disabled to cut off donations. The Freedom of the Press Foundation in December
2017 closed down the anonymous funding channel to WikiLeaks which was set up to protect the
anonymity of donors. A well-orchestrated smear campaign against Assange was amplified and given
credibility by the mass media and filmmakers such as Alex Gibney. Assange and WikiLeaks were
first. We are next.
Democratic Senator Chris Murphy told CNN during this campaign that Russian
disinformation efforts are "more problematic" than in 2016. He warned that "this time around,
the Russians have decided to cultivate U.S. citizens as assets. They are attempting to try to
spread their propaganda in the mainstream media."
This will be the official mantra of the Democratic Party, a vicious redbaiting campaign
without actual reds, especially as the country spirals out of control. The reason I have a show
on Russia-funded RT America is the same reason Vaclav Havel could only be heard on the
US-funded Voice of America during the communist control of Czechoslovakia. I did not
choose to leave the mainstream media. I was pushed out. And once anyone is pushed out, the
ruling elite is relentless about discrediting the few platforms left willing to give them, and
the issues they raise, a hearing.
"If the problem is 'American citizens' being cultivated as 'assets' trying to put
'interference' in the mainstream media, the logical next step is to start asking Internet
platforms to shut down accounts belonging to any American journalist with the temerity to
report material leaked by foreigners (the wrong foreigners, of course – it will continue
to be okay to report things like the 'black ledger')," writes Taibbi , who has done some of the best reporting on
the emerging censorship. "From Fox or the Daily Caller on the right
, to left-leaning outlets like Consortium or the World Socialist Web
Site, to writers like me even – we're all now clearly in range of new speech
restrictions, even if we stick to long-ago-established factual standards."
Taibbi argues that the precedent for overt censorship took place when the major digital
platforms – Facebook, Twitter, Google, Spotify, YouTube – in a coordinated move
blacklisted the right-wing talk show host Alex Jones.
"Liberal America cheered," Taibbi told me when I interviewed him for my show, " On Contact ":
They said 'Well this is a noxious figure. This is a great thing. Finally, someone's taking
action.' What they didn't realize is that we were trading an old system of speech regulation
for a new one without any public discussion. You and I were raised in a system where you got
punished for speech if you committed libel or slander or if there was imminent incitement to
lawless action, right? That was the standard that the Supreme Court set, but that was done
through litigation. There was an open process where you had a chance to rebut charges. That
is all gone now.
Now, basically there's a handful of these tech distribution platforms that control how
people get their media.
They've been pressured by the Senate, which has called all of their CEOs in, and basically
ordered them, 'We need you to come up with a plan to prevent the sowing of discord and
spreading of misinformation.' This has finally come into fruition. You see a major reputable
news organization like the New York Post -- with a 200-year history -- locked out of its own
Twitter account.
The story [Hunter Biden's emails] has not been disproven. It's not disinformation or
misinformation. It's been suppressed as it would be suppressed in a Third World country. It's
a remarkable historic moment. The danger is that we end up with a one-party informational
system. There's going to be approved dialogue and unapproved dialogue that you can only get
through certain fringe avenues. That's the problem. We let these companies get this
monopolistic share of the distribution system. Now they're exercising that power.
In the Soviet Union the truth was passed, often hand to hand, in underground samizdat
documents, clandestine copies of news and literature banned by the state. The truth will
endure. It will be heard by those who seek it out. It will expose the mendacity of the
powerful, however hard it will be to obtain. Despotisms fear the truth. They know it is a
mortal threat. If we remain determined to live in truth, no matter the cost, we have a
chance.
Chris Hedges Chris Hedges is a Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist who
was a foreign correspondent for fifteen years forThe New York Times,where he
served as the Middle East Bureau Chief and Balkan Bureau Chief for the paper. He previously
worked overseas forThe Dallas Morning News,The Christian Science
Monitor, and NPR. He is the host of the Emmy Award-nominated RT America showOn Contact.paul eastonNOVEMBER
23, 2020 AT 10:28 AM
It seems like the masters are just as deluded as the slaves. But the situation is
unsustainable. When many millions of slaves become homeless and hungry that reality will become
unavoidable. Who will they blame? Will they attack one another or will they revolt against the
system? Soon we will see. Carolyn L ZarembaNOVEMBER
24, 2020 AT 10:30 AM
I share only alternative media since I don't trust "mainstream" media one iota. I post
articles from the World Socialist Web Site, Consortium News, the Grayzone, Caitlin Johnstone
and others all the time. I am a socialist. I was only banned from posting on FB once, for
criticizing Israel. No surprise there. But I suspect FB of shadow banning, i.e., making it look
like you've posted an article but making it invisible to others in their news feeds. I first
learned of this practice from Craig Murray, another whose articles I post regularly. paul
eastonNOVEMBER
25, 2020 AT 1:35 AM
That is a chilling thought. I was shadow banned by medium.com a few years ago. It appeared
to me that my posts and comments went in, but no one else could see them. At least with them I
could tell something was wrong because I had regular conversations with some people. With FB I
don't know if you could ever be sure. R ZwarichNOVEMBER
25, 2020 AT 5:37 AM
Mr. Easton is indeed correct. It is VERY chilling, especially if people would imagine what
THEY would do, if they had our Enemy's morally depraved motivations, and if they had the
control our Enemy has over ALL our communications switches.
There are three basic types of mass communications. One to many. Many to one. And many to
many.
The Enemy has complete access to 'one to many' communications, and complete control over
anyone's else's access to same. Many to one communications are ineffective for intrinsic
reasons. Many to many communications offer myriad methods of cunningly creative control.
If we send out group emails, for example, in simple old-fashioned list-serves, they who
control the switches could easily 'filter', to determine who among addressees gets any message,
and who doesn't.
I used to write comments in the Boston Globe, the wholly owned plaything of a VERY weird old
Billionaire and his proud and beautiful young trophy wife. (Less than half his age, of course).
At first I thought the Globe NEVER censored. I could write anything, and it would post. Ahh but
then I learned that the Globe is a HEAVY handed censor, but was clever enough to put a 'cookie'
in your browser folder to tell their server to let you see your own comments, so you would not
even know that no one else could see them. It was 'stealth censorship'.
We should try to remember that these people are morally depraved, in their constant
paroxysms of raw Greed and raw Lust. No force exists any longer in our nation to restrain them.
Anything we can 'see' that they CAN do, we can pretty much figure they already DO do, or else
sooner or later will. Carol ShapiroNOVEMBER
23, 2020 AT 1:44 PM
While I don't agree with you, Chris Hedges, all the time, I believe you are our one. true.
journalist. Thankful for your honesty. Insight. Huge intellect. Global experience. I am an
"unenrolled" voter -- an extremely disillusioned former Bernie Sanders supporter. Truly, I feel
like he would have been our closest attempt to achieving a real "citizen government". What a
laughable term that is these days. Bernie never would have had a chance running as a Democrat
– absurd. He should have walked out of that convention four years ago and taken his
supporters with him. Oh wait- you said that. NeverNOVEMBER
23, 2020 AT 2:59 PM
Don't forget that the selective coverage by the NY Times in this campaign didn't start when
Biden became the nominee. Up to that time, the Times ran one or two articles on Sanders it
seems. Whatever the number, it was miniscule. They almost completely ignored one of the most
significant campaigns in modern history, thus helping to ensure it died on the vine. And when
they did cover it one or two times, it was always negative.
US liberals more fascist than conservatives–long observed by historians/social
philosophers
"amerikans do not converse as Tocqueville wrote, amerikans entertain each other. amerikans do
not exchange ideas, they exchange images. the problem w amerikans is not Orwellian–it is
huxleyan: amerikans love their oppression: Neil Postman Stephen MorrellNOVEMBER
24, 2020 AT 1:18 AM
Glenn Greenwald's points need stressing: (i) some of the most vociferous proponents of
online censorship are mainstream and 'alternative' 'journalists' who on repeated occasions have
egged on the carriers to shut sites, pages, accounts or postings; (ii) these 'journalists'
aren't just serving the narrowest band of oligarchic media empires in history, but also are
ivy-league bourgeois brats with no interest at all in exposing the injustices or malfeasance of
bourgeois society, unlike many journalists of the past; and (iii) that it's not in the
immediate material interests of the carriers to conduct the censorship, especially in the
longterm, since it consumes resources and lowers traffic and profits. They'd much rather the
government do it and for them to be compensated at taxpayer expense.
To avoid future potential government antitrust measures or nationalisation (heaven forbid!),
Zuckerberg and his ilk have been censoring in heavyhanded and hamfisted ways that aren't so
'autonomous' but for the moment at least can be traced along the usual Democrat-controlled
thinktank and CIA/FBI lines, which of course also are beyond public scrutiny. Despite the
prospects for freedom of reach (and reach is what it's really about) apparently growing dimmer
with each senate committee appearance by the carrier oligarchs, ways and means will be found to
circumvent their draconian measures. While alternative non-censoring platforms have yet to gain
significant traction, it likely won't take much for one to catch on, perhaps sparked by an
outrageous event of suppression, that turns Facebook, Twitter, etc, into museum pieces. One
might imagine, for instance, Wikileaks-style YouTube, Facebook, Twitter equivalents that act as
true carriers, purely machine-based and devoid of human interference, that precludes them
becoming the 'moral guardians' that Twitter, Facebook etc, are quickly metamorphising into.
As increasing swathes of the population appear not to be aligning within the bourgeoisie's
preset ideological 'tribal' boundaries, there's a certain schadenfreude in seeing the rulers in
dread of the truth getting out and spreading uncontrollably. Their tailored counter-narratives
simply are too enfeebled and slight to square with the hard reality that's hitting everyone,
from the most educated and brainwashed to the least. That ivy-league stenographers are being
pressed into the service of censorship gives some indication of the desperation of the rulers.
We all know, as do they but can never admit it publicly, that censorship and repression are
frank admissions that they've lost all 'arguments' for their very existence.
To an extent, Trump has been responsible for letting the genie out of the bottle, as the
first president probably since before Andrew Jackson to have failed, repeatedly, to put
lipstick on the racist, capitalist imperial pig. The efforts by the ruling class at censorship
and naked suppression of freedom of reach and of access to sources of truthful information will
only increase in desperation as their myth-making narratives become ever more unable to
rationalise a crisis that's they're beginning to see as intractable and endangering their
rule.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned that the coronavirus pandemic could lead to a
global economic collapse that would have a significant impact on the lives of millions of
people across the world.
Speaking at the virtual G20 summit of international leaders on Saturday, Putin warned that,
"despite some positive signals, the main risk is still the so-called stagnant mass
unemployment with a subsequent increase in poverty and social disorder."
"The coronavirus epidemic, the global lockdown and the freezing of economic activity
launched a systemic economic crisis, which the modern world has not known since the Great
Depression," he added.
Putin also lavished praise on the "massive contribution" of the US, which, along with
other countries, has joined together to "create a stimulus package for the world economy to
the tune of $12 trillion." Mainly put forward by large economies, including Russia's, the
stimulus is thought to have played a role in buoying fragile world markets.
"... A staggering 9.2 million jobs could be lost in the U.S. Travel & Tourism sector in 2020 if barriers to global travel remain in place, the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) revealed. ..."
A staggering 9.2 million jobs could be lost in the U.S. Travel & Tourism sector in
2020 if barriers to global travel remain in place, the World Travel & Tourism Council
(WTTC) revealed.
The new figure comes from WTTC's latest economic modelling, which looks at the punishing
impact of COVID-19 and travel restrictions on the Travel & Tourism sector.
According to the latest data, 7.2 million jobs in the U.S. have been impacted. If there is
no immediate alleviation of restrictions on international travel, as many as 9.2 million jobs
– more than half of all jobs supported by the sector in the U.S. in 2019 – would be
lost.
WTTC has identified the four top priorities which should be addressed, including the
adoption of a comprehensive and cost-effective testing regime at departure to avoid
transmission, the re-opening of key 'air corridors' such as between New York and London, and
international coordination.
The challenge of restoring safe travels in the new normal is one of the biggest issues
facing the U.S. as it grapples with a depressed economy devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic,
which has hit the Travel & Tourism sector particularly hard.
The WTTC Economic Impact Report for 2019 revealed that Travel & Tourism contributed
$1.84 trillion to the U.S. economy and was responsible for more than one in 10 (10.7%) American
jobs.
"... The grouping is thus; 1) Coastal Elites/Wall Street/City of London/Private Banking/Atlantacism/Libertarian Free Market Economics aka finance capitalism ..."
"... The middle of America is land power, and is opposed to Atlantacism, rim theory, blue water navy power projection, importation of third world people, and export of jobs and factories. ..."
Indeed, one can't help but wonder whether the historic American nation would fare better
under outright foreign occupation than a hostile elite which considers itself our rulers and
treats us with open contempt, if not hatred.
Russia or China would not flood the historic American nation with "third world people" in
order to chase after a dollar. A good argument could be made that China or Russia would be a
better government for Heartland America than the "international" coastal elites.
The coastal elites are wedded to finance capitalism. This group of people want a thin veneer
of Oligarchs (themselves) controlling a mixed race, or brown population in their factories.
Finance Capital wants to make illicit gains. Finance capital could care less about improving
labor ability of the native population.
The grouping is thus; 1) Coastal Elites/Wall Street/City of London/Private
Banking/Atlantacism/Libertarian Free Market Economics aka finance capitalism . (In short,
the coastal elites are for an "international world order" with them in charge, with them making
their finance nut with usury, rents, and unearned income. Lying and cheating is ok, because
only money matters. Their capital is fungible, meaning it can fly anywhere in the world to make
gains, and to them labor has legs and is also fungible, to then lower prices – to make
gains.)
Land Powers, such as China and Russia are not "international" in their thinking. Although
they do some power projection into blue water as a form of defense. They are interested in
improving their sovereign population.
The middle of America is land power, and is opposed to Atlantacism, rim theory, blue
water navy power projection, importation of third world people, and export of jobs and
factories.
The American system of economy of the founders was the first industrial capitalism, and the
"credit of the nation" went toward infrastructure, public health, and improving the
commons.
The Jew and English finance capitalism method, first combined together in 1694, and has
always been at war with heartland America. The parasite is dug in deep.
"... But while they now have the power, globalists do not have solutions to the country problems, and the crisis of neoliberalism (which started in 2008) will continue, the far-right nationalism will stay and may even gain strength. This suggests that in 2024 is somebody like Tucker Carlson will lead the ticket. And Tucker is a more dangerous opponent to neoliberal Dems than Trump ever been. "Trumpism without Trump" will live, so to speak. ..."
Interesting piece by Beinart about the obvious question that isn't being asked: Why did
Trump lose? After all he had the advantages of incumbency, until February the stock market was
booming, wages were rising, things were going great.
Answer: because he was not nearly radical enough. Because he was a weak leader who was
captured by the Republican elite (not the other way round). Also (rather ironic this) because
he was and is a terrible negotiater. He continually caved into the likes of Mitch McConnell,
and, well the rest is history.
Question: will 'super Trump' in 4 or 8 years time manage to follow the Eastern European
template and create a genuine populist party? (economically social democratic, particularly
concentrating on pensioners: extremely hostile to immigration, skeptical of environmental
issues, culturally conservative?). If so the future is the Republicans' but it's a big if.
...he was a weak leader who was captured by the Republican elite (not the other way
round). Also (rather ironic this) because he was and is a terrible negotiator. He
continually caved into the likes of Mitch McConnell, and, well the rest is history.
All true. But Biden victory in some ways looks like Catch 22 for neoliberal Dems (Will the
Democrats Ever Make Sense of This Week? – New Republic):
In sum, if the results we have hold, Joe Biden will win the election and preside over a
divided Congress. A chastened and anxious Democratic caucus will continue to hold the
House.
A triumphant Senate Republican caucus will obviously destroy his major legislative
agenda. Biden will assuredly turn to policy by executive action, just as Barack Obama did
late in his legislatively stymied administration.
When he does, Republicans will do all they can to send those actions to a 6–3
conservative Supreme Court Biden will be unable to pack or meaningfully reform.
In defeating Trump, Democrats will have avoided their worst-case scenario. Instead, they
will have won the worst possible Biden victory, a political situation that will be a
nightmare all its own.
Trump, with his "national neoliberalism," was an anomaly in its own right. And such things
do not last long. So this is a kind of "return to normal" -- return to power of the
"internationalist" faction of Oligarchy who is linked to globalization (and constitutes the
majority of the US oligarchy), which was unexpectedly defeated in 2016 and since then foght
tooth and nail for the return to power. And such "normalization" is the most logical outcome
of the 2020 elections and is to be expected.
But while they now have the power, globalists do not have solutions to the country problems,
and the crisis of neoliberalism (which started in 2008) will continue, the far-right
nationalism will stay and may even gain strength. This suggests that in 2024 is somebody like
Tucker Carlson will lead the ticket. And Tucker is a more dangerous opponent to neoliberal
Dems than Trump ever been. "Trumpism without Trump" will live, so to speak.
That may spell troubles for the well-being of the PMC (professional and management class)
to which we all belong.
I would add that the fact that Biden victory legitimized Russia-gate and abuse of their
power by intelligence agencies is also a problem. I suspect that Neo-McCarthyism, in the long
run, might backfire.
Wow! Today's
Global Times editorial about the election and its outcome is very perceptive in
its entirety making it very hard to determine an excerpt. I decided on the center 4
paragraphs as they're a coherent whole:
"Every society has internal divergences and contradictions. The design of the US system
indulges and even encourages the fermentation of contradictions. Mechanisms help maintain the
balance between interests and power. For a long time, this performed relatively well, but new
challenges are changing the conditions of US mechanisms, and changing relations between the
effectiveness of US mechanisms and the difficulties US society faces.
"The fundamental change is that the US has been consuming its accumulated advantages
against the backdrop of globalization. Its pattern of interests has been fixated, and the
overall competitiveness of the country has been sliding. The welfare it has made for the
people cannot match people's demands and expectations. The mechanism that distributes
interests solidifies and further erodes social ability of promoting unity.
"In the internet era, identity politics is rising. People can easily feel that their
rights are deprived because they are from a certain social class. Maintaining social unity
has become an increasingly arduous and sensitive task. Obviously, the US needs political
reforms more than many other countries to enhance its ability to promote unity.
"But in the past four years, the Trump administration, incited by the US election system,
has pushed the country into a risky path where it enhances division to boost the existing
pattern of political interests. There are so many social woes in US society, be it between
different races and classes, between new immigrants and old ones, and between different
regions, let alone partisan. But now the objective of society has been cast on Trump's
reelection. This objective has to a great extent squeezed the room of US society to pursue
maximum common interests."
But I really insist reading the entire editorial.
In an op/ed
by a professor at the Center for American Studies of Fudan University, we learn what some
close observers from outside see as the primary contradictions within the Outlaw US
Empire:
"There are two main contradictions in the US. First, contradictions between the whites and
ethnic minorities. The advantageous position of the whites continues to decrease and they
would lose their dominance over the country in the future. This makes their tolerance and
confidence in ethnic minorities decrease as well. The ratio of the population of ethnic
minorities is rising. This increases their demand for equality and rights.
"It is normal for ethnic minorities to demand for corresponding political, social,
economic and cultural positions, but this will pose a severe challenge to the cultural,
religious and racial nature of the US. As the US population continues to lose balance,
related conflicts will break out or even become a periodic and escalating crisis.
"Second, contradictions between elites and ordinary people. Supporters of the Democratic
Party are mainly demotic elites who benefit from globalization and liberalization of the
global economy, and those who support the Republican Party are middle- and lower-class
people, and religious conservatives. This is very clear in the county-based electoral maps.
Trump-supporting counties that are vast, under populated and economically backward, surround
cities and counties that support the Democratic Party, while Democrat-dominated counties and
cities use their economic and population advantages to lead the political pattern in some
states. The contradictions between elites and ordinary people will not end with the
election."
Not stated clearly IMO is that these contradictions are Centrifugal in their affects on
the overall society thus impeding attempts to reform the polity and gain control over the
forces exerting actual control that are beyond government.
The elites may control who gets nominated but no matter how flawed or repugnant their
candidate is or how obvious that the candidate was chosen for them the flocks that follow the
candidates act as if they did the choosing.
Trump was given 10 times the free advertising than all the other primary candidates
combined and yet his followers think they picked him.
And Biden will go down in history as the candidate who got more popular votes than any
other candidate ever has and yet he is about as popular as a hemorrhoid.
"... One camp within the elites recognizes the danger and seeks reforms , but the reforms are too little, too late, and in any event, the elites who cling most ardently to the past stability fight the reform movement to a standstill. ..."
"... So take your pick, America: what's the closest analogy? A sclerotic Politburo of elders living in the past, an elite fiddling while the nation disintegrates, or an elite so out of touch with reality that it claims inflation is zero while the populace can no longer afford bread? ..."
Rome, the USSR and Revolutionary France are all compelling analogies due to the hubristic
cluelessness of their fractured elites as the pretensions of stability collapsed around them.
Even though Nero didn't actually fiddle while Rome burned and Marie Antoinette didn't gush "Let
them eat brioche" when notified that the peasants had no bread (or more accurately, could no
longer afford it), these myths are handy encapsulations of the disconnect from reality that
infested the elites in the last years before the deluge of non-linear chaos overwhelmed the
regimes.
While historians gather evidence of tipping points such as pandemics, ecological damage,
invasions, droughts, inflation, etc., the core dynamic is ultimately the loss of social
cohesion within the ruling elites and in the social order at large.
As a generality, the permanence of the status quo is taken for granted by elites, who then
feel free to squabble amongst themselves over the spoils of wealth and power. Distracted by
their own infighting, the elites are blind to the erosion of the foundations of their
power.
As coherence in the elites unravels, the ties uniting the elites with the masses unravel as
well.
One camp within the elites recognizes the danger and seeks reforms , but the reforms are too
little, too late, and in any event, the elites who cling most ardently to the past stability
fight the reform movement to a standstill.
As social cohesion unravels, systems that once seemed immutable (i.e. linear ) suddenly
display non-linear dynamics in which modest changes that would have made little difference in
the past now unleash regime-shattering disorder.
So take your pick, America: what's the closest analogy? A sclerotic Politburo of elders
living in the past, an elite fiddling while the nation disintegrates, or an elite so out of
touch with reality that it claims inflation is zero while the populace can no longer afford
bread?
They all lead to the same destination.
richsob , 1 hour ago
I know a lot of history and I think we will go the route of Rome. We will have a slow
slide into total failure from a debased currency, an over extended military, tax revolts,
unmanageable immigration and an internal war among the elites.
HRH of Aquitaine 2.0 , 1 hour ago
My name is an indirect reference to France and the French Revolution.
When Pelosi was photo'd in front of two massive Sub Zero fridges with gourmet ice cream,
that was the equivalent of "let them eat brioche." She is fvucking clueless. A tool that is
barely coherent, much like Joe.
People see through it. The greed of the politicians, and their apparatchiks, the
bureaucrats, is obvious to anyone willing to look. FFS apparatchiks can retire with six
fixure salaries after being a government employee! People are sick to death of their
arrogance, their greed, their out-and-out abuse of the taxpayer!
The other analogy, which I think is valid, is to ancient Rome. I was a philosophy major /
Latin minor so took quite few courses involving the classes, reading the classics, or
translating them. I also spent a semester in Rome, tramping through the Forum and walking
underground and overground. In 1997 Rome was a beautiful city, mostly safe.
Anyhow, ancient Rome ended up debasing their currency, literally. Which the US (and other
central banks) are doing with excessive money printing.
Excessive taxation drove away the tax base of ancient Rome. The first jingle keys event
was there. Why? Taxes were too high. People will work hard if there is a profit incentive and
they are able to earn a good return from their labor. Once that incentive was gone, people
abandoned their farms and property and left. Where did they go? Away. Away from the tax
collectors, which were richly rewarded for any taxes they were able to collect. I suppose at
the end, the collection methods became quite brutal. At that point, when it is your money or
your life, you throw the tax collector your money and flee with your life. You walk away from
land that you love and start over.
Never an easy choice to abandon one's land and home. But that is exactly what
happened.
Central bankers and governments, along with the common citizen, would do well to heed
historical precedents.
MAOUS , 31 minutes ago
I see it more like The Godfather Part I & II. We were betrayed by the stupidest
simpletons of our own family (citizenry) that sold us out for trinkets, false promises of
grandeur and propaganda from Rival Mafia Families who wanted to rub our family out, kill our
leader and take over. "I didn't know until today, it was Barzini all along." Yeah, but Fredo
was the turn coat that made it all possible. Meet the simpletons of our Family known as your
fellow American voter. "A Republic, if you can keep it." We lost it, kiss it goodbye. Say
hello to the new Black Hand on the block.
Omega Point , 1 hour ago
One of the best articles on ZH in a while. The elites are so full of hubris, they behave
as if the state of affairs since the post-WWII era has always been the state of affairs
throughout history and are immutable. They believe that they are cause of America's
dominance, not the individuals who built this country on whose goodwill they are now quickly
draining.
I think we're like Rome. Currency debasement, no border security, massively corrupt
politicians, most of population on welfare, and games and circuses to distract from the
rot.
The elites will soon be surprised how quickly things will decline, just as shocked as the
Romans when the Visigoths came through the city walls and looted the Imperial City in 410
AD.
play_arrow
sbin , 1 hour ago
The USSR was very similar with decrepit old party hacks ruining everything.
Unfortunately American exceptional lunatics will try to destroy the world before excepting
reality.
Never been a group so corrupt and delusional with so much destructive weaponry.
Dr Strangelove is more appropriate.
RKKA , 1 hour ago
In the summer of 1941, the 4th Panzer Division of Heinz Guderian, one of the most talented
German tank generals, broke through to the Belarusian town of Krichev. Parts of the 13th
Soviet Army were retreating. Only one gunner, Nikolai Sirotinin, did not retreat - very
young, short, thin.
On that day, it was necessary to cover the withdrawal of troops. “There will be two
people with a cannon here,” said the battery commander. Nikolai volunteered. The second
was the commander himself.
On the morning of July 17, a column of German tanks appeared on the highway.
Nikolai took up a position on the hill right on the field. The cannon was sinking in the
high rye, but he could clearly see the highway and the bridge over the river. When the lead
tank reached the bridge, Nikolai knocked it out with the first shot. The second shell set
fire to the armored personnel carrier that closed the column.
We must stop here. Because it is still not entirely clear why Nikolai was left alone at
the cannon. But there are versions. He apparently had just the task - to create a "traffic
jam" on the bridge, knocking out the head car of the Nazis. The lieutenant at the bridge and
adjusted the fire, and then, disappeared. It is reliably known that the lieutenant was
wounded and then he left towards the withdrawing positions. There is an assumption that
Nikolai had to move away, having completed the task. But ... he had 60 rounds. And he
stayed!
Two tanks tried to move the lead tank off the bridge, but they were also hit. The armored
vehicle tried to cross the river not across the bridge. But she got stuck in a swampy shore,
where another shell found her. Nikolai shot and shot, knocking out tank after tank ...
Guderian's tanks rested on Nikolai Sirotinin, like the Chinese wall, like the Brest
fortress. Already 11 tanks and 6 armored personnel carriers were on fire! For almost two
hours of this strange battle, the Germans could not understand where the gun was firing from.
And when we reached the position of Nikolai, he had only three shells left. The Germans
offered him to surrender. Nikolai responded by firing at them with a carbine.
This last battle was short-lived ...
11 tanks and 7 armored vehicles, 57 soldiers and officers were lost by the Nazis after the
battle, where they were blocked by the Russian soldier Nikolai Sirotinin.
The inscription on the monument: "Here at dawn on July 17, 1941 entered into combat with a
column of fascist tanks and in a two-hour battle repulsed all enemy attacks, senior artillery
sergeant Nikolai Vladimirovich Sirotinin, who gave his life for the freedom and independence
of our Motherland."
"After all, he is a Russian soldier, is such admiration necessary?" These words were
written down in his diary by Chief Lieutenant of the 4th Panzer Division Henfeld: “July
17, 1941. Sokolnichi, near Krichev. An unknown Russian soldier was buried in the evening. He
alone stood at the cannon, shot a convoy of our tanks and infantry for a long time, and died.
Everyone was amazed at his courage ... Oberst (Colonel) before the grave said that if all the
soldiers of the Fuehrer fought like this Russian soldier, they would have conquered the whole
world! Three times they fired volleys from rifles. After all, he is a Russian soldier, is
such admiration necessary? "
Ordinary people were ready to defend and die for the USSR. And who is Gorbachev, who
destroyed the USSR. A traitor who betrayed everything and everyone. A stupid dilettante who
imagines himself a world-class politician. The main drawback of the USSR was that the power
was too concentrated in the hands of one person, who was trusted without question. But when
people realized where he was leading the country, it was too late.
Max21c , 2 hours ago
It's a mix between Nazi Germany and its criminality and thievery and persecution
machinery, and Bolshevist Russia and its criminality and thievery and persecution machinery
and many third world banana republics and their criminality and thievery and political
persecution machinery.
Face it Washingtonians are evil.
ZeroTruth , 1 hour ago
Americuck in and of its entirety is just a criminal organization. I know a restaraunteur
that started his business in the Bay Area selling drugs using a fleet of vehicles that had
hidden compartments everywhere. Each vehicle was capable of holding up to half a key of yay
and powdered molly already grammed up. Drivers were issued burner phones and given orders via
dispatcher.
Last I checked, he had 7 restaurants that did amazing business and those vehicles were
still on the road providing the other service. That's just one of the many I know of and it's
small time compared to what the US government is doing.
ZeroTruth , 1 hour ago
Americuck in and of its entirety is just a criminal organization. I know a restaraunteur
that started his business in the Bay Area selling drugs using a fleet of vehicles that had
hidden compartments everywhere. Each vehicle was capable of holding up to half a key of yay
and powdered molly already grammed up. Drivers were issued burner phones and given orders via
dispatcher.
Last I checked, he had 7 restaurants that did amazing business and those vehicles were
still on the road providing the other service. That's just one of the many I know of and it's
small time compared to what the US government is doing.
DeeDeeTwo , 2 hours ago
The elites, Big Tech, Media and Deep State threw the kitchen sink at this election and did
not move the needle. Regardless of who is next President, nothing changes. This is a tribute
to the stability of the American system. In fact, the pendulum is swinging against the
subversives who are becoming increasingly reckless and discredited.
TBT or not TBT , 2 hours ago
What did Huxley call the future country depicted in Brave New World?
@zanon: "Actually economy is doing better than expected. Even though Covid will contintue
to be a threat against economic growth.
"U.S. GDP booms at 33.1% rate in Q3, better than expected"
LMAO. I guess you also think the stock market is an economic indicator that reflects the
well-being of normal people.
And yeah, if you pump $4,000,000,000,000 into a bunch of corporations and the ludicrous
stock market casino, the "economy" of any country will "do better".
If Greece during it's financial crisis had $4 trillion to spare and gave it all to their
oligarchs and robber barons, would Greece's "economy" mean the country was doing great? Give
me a break.
No matter the outcome, the fact that this election is so close is a clear indicator that
Americans aren't connecting material conditions on the ground -- a depression, pandemic,
low wages, etc -- to the consequences of politics. Which is an abject, disgusting failure
of Democrats.
We can observe the American economy has declined since 1980 relatively - but not by much.
It was China that skyrocketed.
This is why the political polarization in the USA right now is being fought mainly on
moral/ideological grounds. The American people still thinks it has sufficient time and
resources to first fight among itself (put the proverbial traun back on its tracks) - only to
then subjugate the rest of world (like it did in 1946 and 1992).
The Americans are still rationalizing in moral-ethic-ideological terms because their
economy stagnated and is degrading - but not collapsing. This still gives them a material
base to fuel their pride.
But pay attention: those data are in USD terms. Its industry was what declined the most in
the linked fact sheet above. Before the War of Secession, the South was richer in USD terms
than the North - but war quickly revealed most of the South's "GDP" was financialization
(speculation over the slaves' prices).
Like the petrodollars, WTO better known as globalization, was formed in 1995 after the
fall of Eastern blocks ,to dominate and control the world trade in US fiat currency specially
when China with her cheap skilled labor was to become major world manufacturers of goods.
Basically like oil America agreed not to impose tariff on goods they consumed if you trade
and exported on their fiat currency which costed US nothing to produce. Obviously unlike oil
trade this globalization of trade in US dollar could not work, since unlike oil trade America
couldn't politically dominated and control the good manufacturing countries, like it could,
with small oil producing countries. The period of free trade in goods and energy is coming to
an end, therefore US needs to lower her standards of living, or to go to major wars with
other resources hungry powers to continue colonizing the third world resources and labor.
Either way the end result will be the sam as for, not so Great Britain, ottomans, Spanish,
Persian empires, the only obvious difference shorter empire.
Again Ferdinand Pecora harking back to the 1930's as discussed in the past weeks
commentaries:-
Wilmarth's writing is so insightful and profound in its analysis of the similarities
between the banks of the late 1920s and today that it feels like the ghost of Ferdinand
Pecora might have been whispering in Wilmarth's ear. Pecora was a former prosecutor from
New York who was chosen to preside over much of the early 1930s Senate Banking hearings and
investigations of the corrupt Wall Street structure that led to the 1929 crash and Great
Depression.
Three banking names that played significant roles in the crash of 1929 and the
ensuing Great Depression were National City Bank, JP Morgan, and Chase National Bank.
National City Bank was the precursor to today's Citigroup, the bank that would have
collapsed in 2008 except for the largest taxpayer and Federal Reserve bailout in global
banking history. JPMorgan and Chase combined in 2000 to create today's JPMorgan
Chase.
For weeks now, we've been been pointing to expectations that a Joe Biden victory,
accompanied by a Democratic sweep of the Senate, could accelerate
a "reflation" trade , as the world witnesses the shift toward fiscal policy in the form of
massive fiscal stimulus supplant QE as the preferred vehicle for the central bank carrying out
its monetary policy objectives.
This fusion between fiscal and monetary policy is an inevitable consequence of the Fed's
shouldering the burden of promoting economic "equality", or at least combating "inequality" - a
laughably ironic objective for the Fed, which has done more than any other single entity in
blowing the equity asset bubble that's driven economic inequality in the US back to levels last
seen during the Gilded Age.
Well,
after having MMT pioneer Stephanie Kelton, best known as the go-to economic policy advisor
for AOC and Bernie Sanders, on the show, MacroVoices this week followed up with an individual
who has examined the potential blowback caused by this historic policy shift.
This week, MV host Erik Townsend interviewed Tian Yang, the head of macro at Variant
Perception, an established research shop that frequently produces opinion columns in the
financial press. During this week's interview, Yang outlines the findings from a slide deck
that was provided free by MacroVoices to all members (membership is free)
After the historic drubbing endured by crude in the US earlier this year, Yang is among a
group of strategists who have been warning about the reflationary blowback that the Fed is
risking now that it has explicitly decided to allow inflation to run hot.
Yang outlines some of these concepts in the interview, which we have excerpted below:
* * *
Erik: And where do you see the inflation story coming into this?
Central Banks Must 'Play Their Part'
Tian : So I think we need to think about inflation both from a structural point of view and
a cyclical point of view. So the thing to say is cyclically, when unemployment rates are still
quite high, when there's still capacity in the economy, you don't expect to see kind of
immediate pickup in core inflation. Headline could tick up a little bit when commodity prices
industrial commodity, so forth, initiate pickup, so on the cyclical front, there's not
necessarily as much inflation pressure right now.
But structurally, we've seen some truly seismic shifts in the kind of policy landscape and
the structure of the economy actually just this year. When you see governments and developed
market governments around the world start to run giant fiscal deficits funded by central banks,
that's obviously a very dramatic shift away from independent central banking and the focus on
inflation.
This is very much going back to the old Keynesian kind of playbook of essentially, fiscal
led growth and at the same time, we've seen the US Federal Reserve do a number of quite
dramatic shifts this year. Firstly, moving to average inflation targeting is obviously quite a
big mission that they don't really know where the NAIRU (Non-accelerating inflation rate of
unemployment) is, they don't really care what the NAIRU is, they are just going to run the
economy and let it run hot.
And such a policy is also pretty timing consistent because it's not well defined, what's the
period over which we're targeting average inflation. The incentive will always be as inflation
picks up for policymakers to just run their heart because it's easier to kind of keep the party
going.
So, both fiscal and monetary policy are starting to become a lot more expansionary and
loose. And the historical precedents for this kind of price action would probably go back to
World War 2 with a fair-trade record, that essentially meant fiscal deficits would be very
large. But there was a moral imperative for the central banks to finance the government
deficits, and that ended up creating a lot of inflation.
And this time around, the moral imperative is that the central bank's got to play their part
with the pandemic. And going into the future, the central bank probably has to play their part
was addressing inequality, climate change, or any of these big issues that essentially
justifies why central banks should finance government deficits.
So that's quite dramatic policy shift, the other thing that's happened is that the Fed is
now proactively kind of destroying the quality of its balance sheet. So again, as extreme, we
could go back to when we were on the gold standard, if you look at central bank balance sheet,
most currencies backed by gold, right.
So $1 is an asset for us but for the central bank $1 is a liability so previously they
backed it on the asset side of their balance sheet with gold. Obviously, over time we abandoned
the gold standard, so forth, the quality of assets on the central bank's balance sheet is
getting worse and worse. And obviously, this year, the fact that they started buying corporate
bonds, the fact that, they're willing to take on fallen angels, hide your debt and take on more
credit risk is just another reflection of just the weakening central bank balance sheets.
It's not necessarily a immediate concern, but it lays the foundations for people to kind of
increase inflation expectations and to really worry about what the value of the dollar is. And
so when you have these kind of structural shifts in policy coming together in a couple ways to
make a kind of deterioration in central bank balance sheets and government balance sheets.
That's typically been the recipe for inflation expectations to become unhinged.
From A Lake To An Ocean
Erik: Tian, I love the picture on page five where you're talking about lake and ocean
regimes of inflation. Needless to say, you're not talking about a necessarily a really calm
easy day out on the ocean, but maybe a stormy day.
Now I want to go back to what you said because it seems to me that the game is very
different this time around in that you drew an analogy to, okay, after World War 2 we move to a
whole lot of deficit spending, which should be inflationary. The thing is, after World War 2 we
were still, as you said, on a gold standard. And the big inflation didn't really get unleashed
until we came after the gold standard with the breakdown of Bretton Woods in 1971.
Now, this time around, we're going to have I think the same if not a greater shift to a
public policy emphasis on major spending programs with a lot of deficit spending. But we're
already in a pure fiat environment, so nobody's pretending there's a constraint on how much
money you can print in order to finance government spending.
I would think that means that the inflation is certainly not delayed by 20 years the way it
was after World War 2, but is it immediate? Or is there still a lag of several years before
that inflation really hits the system in terms of consumer price inflation after those pre
generated factors like deficit spending kick in? How long does it take before we really see the
inflation start to get away?
Tian: Yeah, I mean, that's a great question. I guess it's a little bit like when they think
about how people go bankrupt, right, it happens very slowly and or all at once. I think this is
kind of the analogy we're kind of drawing here because we're talking about a shift in inflation
expectations, which is obviously predicated on just the general belief in the system.
These things are obviously inherently fairly hard to predict but what we can do is kind of
position for when it already makes sense. So when markets are already not pricing in much
inflation risk premiums and also as the economy cyclically picks up, those things are going to
help just drive a more normal reflation cycle.
So right now, if you position for that, then when the tail comes through and potentially
more inflation picks up later, you're kind of on the right side of it. In terms of the
mechanism it could, as you say, potentially happen quickly or you could take a few years. I
mean, if we're in this kind of 1960 style environment then what you need to do is go along for
the excess capacity in the economy to be used up first, and then have inflation pick up.
And then you will need that to feed into shifting hecs inflation expectations higher, and
then you should move into more of a wage price spiral. Then when people think inflation is
going higher, they're going to demand higher wages and that's what really kicks off the more
uncontrolled inflation right now.
Arguably right now for a lot of people, you know say live in the United States, the actual
cost of living inflation is actually already been a lot higher than what CPI would be saying if
you look at shadow stats, inflation and these kind of different projections. They would say
inflation has be running a 4-5% annually for the past 20 years, if you get rid of a lot of the
hedonic adjustments and so forth. And arguably, it's actually this mismatch between what
official CPI says and what people feel is their true cost of living. That gap is also fueling a
lot of the populism and the kind of general discontent that we have been seeing in society and,
by the way, this isn't a new, it's just quite rare that we see it in developed markets.
If you take emerging market economies like Argentina or these places that have been known to
have huge inflation's, this is typically what happens. The population doesn't believe in the
CPI, they think their real cost of living is going up a lot higher, so when it comes to wage
negotiations, they demand CPI plus 5-10%.
No more '60/40'?
Erik: Tian, let's talk about how this translates for portfolios, it sounds like we're very
much in agreement that inflation is coming, but it's kind of hard to know exactly when and how
it shows up. Probably when it does show up, it shows up in a big way, you don't want to be
caught by surprise, but you don't know that it's happening right away. So what do you do in
terms of your portfolio in order to be ready for that?
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Tian: Yeah, well that's kind of the million-dollar question at the moment isn't it? So the
first thing to know is, I think I mentioned briefly at the start, clearly more traditional
portfolio construction, the kind of 60/40 or the heavy allocation to fixed income, it's
naturally kind of getting to the end of the road. I think most people recognize that as yields
bump up against the zero bound, the ability for your fixed income portion to really offer a
diversified impact or a hedge to equity risk is going to diminish.
So, going forward, what's very interesting about commodities is that one of the unique
properties of commodities is typically when commodity volatility is high commodity prices
actually tend to go up a lot. And this is quite different to equities because normally for
equities only when equities are crashing that volatility picks up, whereas for commodities, the
volatility tends to be to the upside. Now, the thing to say about commodities is that one of
the big reasons why it tends to be very high volatility is that there tends to be quite
prolonged periods of demand and supply mismatches for the industry. Just because typically
supply responses can take a long time if you're going to build a new mine, or drill a new well,
or build a new plant, it could sometimes you could take up to three to five years. Obviously,
if it's like the super-efficient shell well, maybe it takes one year to get to get it
going.
But for a lot of commodity sites if you're going to build a refinery or build a chemical
plant or things like that, it's going to be three to five years. And because of that very delay
supply response it is where you end up with this prolonged period of demand supply mismatches.
And so that that's kind of what we're starting to see right now, where for a lot of commodity
sectors are more capital scarce.
This being a prolonged period of a lack of investment, a lack of capex, and so these are
sectors that we would expect to have quite explosive upside as the as the economy recovers and
as demand comes back. So I think in the slide deck there's a section on page 15 where I
mentioned the capital cycle. So, I think this is a very interesting framework to actually think
about when we're trying to decide where to invest in.
So for the capital cycle I think that the best thing that I've read that's really inspired
us on this was some pieces written by Marathon Asset Management. And it was basically collated
together in a book called "Capital Returns: Investing Through the Capital Cycle", and the book
was put together by Edward Chancellor. And so the basic idea is that, if there's a lot of money
flowing to a particular industry or sector, then that inflow of money will cause a lot more
competition within that industry which drives down returns and then as returns fall very low
then nobody in the industry can make a profit.
In reality only passenger feet and commercial aviation consumption are highly elastic. Other
pasts oil consumption, including consumption by military and commercial tracking are much less
elastic.
And Amazon consumption partially compesates for drop is passenger car traffic :-)
In general oil consumption is a proxy of economic activity. As economic activity is resorting
the same will happen with oil consumption.
Thirty-five percent: this is the size of the spending cuts oil and gas companies are likely
to have made this year in response to the effects that the coronavirus pandemic is having on
demand, according to the International Energy Agency. And this is just the spending slump in
upstream oil and gas. This is just part of a wider trend of investment cuts in the energy
industry, according to the IEA, which earlier this month published an update of its World
Energy Investment report, first released in late spring.
At the time, some thought we were seeing the worst of the pandemic. They were, apparently,
wrong.
Demand for oil has certainly improved in some parts of the world, notably in Asia, where
governments have been more successful in containing the spread of the coronavirus than their
counterparts in Europe and North and South America. But even in China – the world's oil
demand recovery driver –the rebound is slowing down. After all, even though its domestic
demand may be improving, if regional and global demand is stalling, this will have a negative
effect on China as well.
According to the IEA, the impact that the pandemic is having on investments in the oil
industry will continue to be felt for years to come. This is hardly surprising: the agency
noted a 45-percent cut in investments by US shale oil companies this year, combined with a
50-percent jump in financing costs .
The number of active drilling rigs in the US may be rising, suggesting the beginning of a
recovery, but the total was still down 564 rigs on the year as of last week, so that recovery
will take a while.
Meanwhile, fuel stock updates from the Energy Information Administration are offering mixed
signals: last week, for instance, saw a major drawdown in distillate fuel stocks, which should
be good news suggesting demand for distillates is improving. The problem is that it is likely
that this improvement is a temporary occurrence rather than a trend. Air travel is still
greatly constrained, and the chances of any change in the status quo are slim.
Uncertainty: this is the keyword for not just the oil industry but for all others affected
by the pandemic to such a grave extent as to force changes in business models. Europe's Big Oil
majors are doing just that with their push into renewables and plan to greatly reduce the
contribution of their core business to overall earnings. USmajors are sticking with oil, and
they may well have a good reason to do it.
There has been a lot of government and activist talk about a green recovery from the
pandemic crisis. But the pandemic is still raging, and not only is it not abating, but it is
gathering strength. This would mean more money needed for stimulus measures. This, in turn,
would mean less money to spend on renewables, because despite the celebrated cost declines in
solar and wind, financial and regulatory support from governments remains essential for their
increased deployment.
The future remains marred in uncertainty that extends to the possibility of a rebound in oil
investments. According to some, such as BP, we are already past peak oil demand, so that would
mean less investment in oil production growth globally. Others, such as OPEC producers, hope
things will sooner or later return to normal, and the world's appetite for more oil will
continue to grow for at least a few more years before plateauing. And yet even OPEC is
preparing for a worst-case scenario.
The extended cartel OPEC+ is considering a delay in the next relaxation of oil production
cuts, from January 2021 to April, in response to the latest trends in Covid-19 infections. One
thing seems relatively clear, however. The longer the surge in new infections continues, the
longer it would take the industry to return on the path of recovery and growth.
I keep on reading this narrative that there is no difference between Trump and Biden and
no matter who you vote for the blob wins. That the effort to unseat Trump and overturn the
2016 election results, to derail his 2020 campaign is all some elaborate game of 52D chess
that we are too stupid to understand.
Here is my problem with that narrative.
The political scene in the US is split between two factions 1) the US globalists
(Democrats/Establishment Republicans/Deep State/Big Tech/MSM/WallStreet) and on the other
side 2) US Nationalists (Trump/the deplorables).
When Trump was campaigning in 2016 he made it clear that he intended to bring back the
supply chain to the US. All those manufacturing jobs that were outsourced to third world
countries to maximise the profits of the large corporations we're going to be brought back
and the way he intended on doing that was to exit free trade agreements that harmed US
national interest and introduce protectionist policies (tariffs/ low corporate taxes etc)
which would entice/induce/force manufacturers to open factories in the US again.
This horrified the globalists as they have for the past decades been implementing a
controlled disintegration of the US
The great "liberalization" of world commerce began with a series of waves through the
1970s, and moved into high gear with the interest rate hikes of Federal Reserve Chairman
Paul Volcker in 1980-82, the effects of which both annihilated much of the small and medium
sized entrepreneurs, opened the speculative gates into the "Savings and Loan" debacle and
also helped cartelize mineral, food, and financial institutions into ever greater
behemoths. Volcker himself described this process as the "controlled disintegration of the
US economy" upon becoming Fed Chairman in 1978. The raising of interest rates to 20-21% not
only shut down the life blood of much of the US economic base, but also threw the third
world into greater debt slavery, as nations now had to pay usurious interest on US loans.
false solutions to a crisis of global proportions are being promoted in the form of a
"Great Global Reset" which aims at creating a new economic order under the fog of COVID.
This emerging "new order", as it is being promoted by Mark Carney, George Soros, Bill Gates
and other minions of the City of London is shaped by a devout commitment to depopulation,
world government and master-slave systems of social control.
By attempting to tie the new system of "value" to economic practices which are designed
to crush humanity's ability to sustain itself in the form of "reducing carbon footprints",
"sustainable green energy", cap and trade, carbon taxes and green infrastructure bonds,
humanity is being set up to accept a system of governance onto our children and
grandchildren which will subject them to a dystopic world of fascism the likes of which
even Hitler could not have dreamed.
Exiting NAFTA, implementing protectionist measures, lowering corporate taxes, starting a
trade war with China (that is where the majority of the outsourced jobs went) he is trying to
undo the controlled disintegration of the US. That is why the globalists hate him so
much.
Fall enrollment has
plunged , some colleges are shuttering operations, revenues across the entire higher
education industry are collapsing, and the shift from physical to virtual education due to the
virus pandemic could prick the next bubble: the student housing debt market.
Our warning about the coming implosion of the higher education industry (see here
from 2014) , as a whole, has become louder and louder over the last six-plus years as the
student debt bubble has recently swelled to more than $1.6 trillion. Years ago, no one at the
time, could've forecasted a virus pandemic would doom colleges and universities.
Credit rating agency Moody's recently downgraded the entire higher education sector to
negative from stable, and the American Council on Education estimates colleges and universities
will experience a $23 billion decline in revenues over the next academic year.
Bloomberg outlines the increase of virtual education in a virus pandemic has resulted in an
abundance of empty dorms at colleges and universities, creating a $14 billion headache for the
student housing debt market.
"West Virginia State University, already hit with a 10% enrollment drop, plans to give
money to a school foundation so it can meet its bond covenants for residence hall debt. A
community college in Ohio is using part of a $1.5 million donation for a financially-strapped
student housing project. And officials at New Jersey City University, which serves largely
first-generation and lower-income students and has recorded years of deficits, are prepared
to shore up a dorm there," Bloomberg said.
The squeeze on university finances comes as the National Student Clearinghouse Research
Center
warned about a 16% drop in first-year undergraduate students enrolled for the fall
semester. This means new revenue streams are quickly drying up for overleveraged colleges and
universities.
"The limiting factor is some of these schools themselves are facing uncertainty with many
of their revenue streams," S&P Global Ratings analyst Amber Schafer said in an interview.
"It's a matter of not only willingness, but if they're able to support the project."
"Typically, privatized student housing debt is paid off by the revenue generated by the
dorms -- meaning there's little recourse for bondholders if things go south," Bloomberg said.
With occupancy rates already declining as coronavirus cases are surging, well, this could be
bad news for colleges and universities heading into 2021.
"Borrowers have begun revealing how empty residence halls are as the pandemic spurs many
campuses to keep classes online. According to the school foundation that sold the debt, West
Virginia State University's dorm is 71% full, putting it about 20 percentage points from
where it needs to be to satisfy debt covenants. Other privatized student housing projects,
like two on Howard University's campus, are virtually empty due to online-only instruction
there," Bloomberg said.
Bloomberg warns: "Privatized dorms are struggling the most given that they weren't
structured to withstand 20% to 30% drops in occupancy -- or no students at all."
"West Virginia State University may have to step in to help student housing bonds at risk
of violating a debt service coverage ratio, Moody's warned this month. The historically-black
college faces "considerable" challenges in backstopping the bonds, Moody's said.
The nearly 290-bed residence hall with rents of $3,881 per semester was just 71% occupied
this fall, while it needed to be about 92% occupied, said Patricia Schumann, president of the
university foundation that sold the debt. Schumann said the university is projected to
provide a $75,000 payment in January. In the meantime, she said the school was working to
bolster its financial position and boost recruitment and donations.
"We're not standing still," she said.
Ohio's Terra State Community College, which has more than 2,100 students, was downgraded
deeper into junk over the risk posed by a dorm owned by a nonprofit, given that the school
"appears to provide an unconditional guarantee" to meet the debt obligations, Moody's said.
The project was financed through a bank note.
The dorm's occupancy fell to 62%, and the college is using a previously-received donation
to cover a shortfall in project revenue amounting between $500,000 to $600,000, the ratings
company said in a report this month.
At New Jersey City University, a student housing project financed though a separate entity
will likely miss a required debt service coverage ratio. The public school having to step in
to help the bonds would be a challenge, but a surmountable one, said Jodi Bailey, the
university's associate vice president for student affairs. The student housing bonds aren't a
debt of the university, so the school would be choosing to provide financial support,
according to bond documents .
The school is working to cut expenses related to the dorm. "Is it a harder year? Most
definitely," she said.
The student housing bonds, issued by West Campus Housing LLC in 2015, were
slashed deeper into junk in September by S&P, which said in a report that residence halls'
occupancy there had fallen to 56% so the school could accommodate social-distancing
guidelines," said Bloomberg.
To summarize, plunging enrollments, resulting in falling occupancy rates for dorms, is a
debt bomb waiting to go off for many overleveraged colleges and universities that are panicking
at the moment to divert enough funds to service debts, as the usual revenue streams, that being
rent checks from students, are nowhere to be found as virtual learning keeps young adults in
their parents' basements and out of dorms.
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If occupancy rates continue to slide through 2021, then we must revisit what we said months
before the virus pandemic began in the US:
A weaker U.S. dollar, rising inflation risks and demand driven by additional fiscal and
monetary stimulus from major central banks will spur a bull market for commodities in 2021,
Goldman's chief commodity strategist Jeffrey Currie said on Thursday, also predicting that "all
commodity markets are in, or moving toward, a deficit with inventories drawing in all but
cocoa, coffee and iron ore."
The bank, which notes that markets are increasingly concerned about the return of inflation,
forecast a return of 28% over a 12-month period on the S&P/Goldman Sachs Commodity Index
(GSCI), with a 17.9% return for precious metals, 42.6% for energy, 5.5% for industrial metals
and a negative return of 0.8% for agriculture.
A key catalyst for the bank's bullish call is that "nearly all commodity markets are in, or
moving toward, a deficit with inventories drawing in all but cocoa, coffee and iron ore."
As Currie adds, "such broad-based deficits are usually only seen late in the business cycle,
underscoring the unique environment markets are in. Given that inventories are drawing this
early in the cycle, we see a structural bull market for commodities emerging in 2021." In the
strategist's view, the bull market will be driven by three major themes:
structural under-investment in the old economy,
policy driven demand and
macro tailwinds from a weakening dollar and rising inflation risks. "These drivers remain
consistent with the bank's bullish views from the start of this year, and have now been
intensified by COVID-19 disruption and the subsequent global policy response."
Some more thoughts from Currie on the tightening in commodity markets:
Commodity markets have been mostly range bound since this summer, in our view caught
between a longer-term bullish outlook for 2021 and near-term concerns around the timing of a
vaccine amid rising COVID cases across Europe and the US Midwest (see Exhibit 4). However, it
is important to emphasize that nearly all commodity markets are in, or moving toward, a
global deficit with inventories drawing in all but cocoa, coffee and iron ore. Such
broad-based deficits are usually only seen late in the business cycle,underscoring the unique
environment markets are in.
As global demand remains tepid for consumer-related commodities like oil, the deficits
further underscore how significant the drop in supply has been and how the supply response
function has changed. For oil, the sharp drop in capex is now having an impact on non-OPEC
decline rates, with capital markets refusing to fund shale drilling, only debt rollovers. In
metals, we have seen a sharp drop in maintenance capex and supply disruptions dragging into
2021. This suggests that even if demand falters in coming weeks as winter exacerbates
COVID-19, markets will likely continue to rebalance, barring an outright collapse in demand.
In our view, base metals and agriculture have more near-term upside than oil, with smaller
inventories to move through before prices begin to rise.
Goldman then shows the following chart which reveals the growing deficit across key
commodities, as well as the key macro catalysts for higher commodity prices in coming
months:
Hedging that even if demand falters in coming weeks as winter exacerbates COVID-19, Goldman
still expect markets will continue to rebalance, "barring an outright collapse in demand."
Goldman takes a more contained view on energy saying that while inventories of oil remain high,
"upside in energy prices will likely come after winter." However, non-energy commodities face
immediate upside as balances have tightened ahead of expectations, driven by large Chinese
demand and adverse weather shocks, according to the Goldman strategist.
Focusing on Gold, Currie said that expansionary fiscal and monetary policies in developed
market economies continue to drive interest rates lower and create demand for hedging the tail
risks of inflation, lifting demand for precious metals. As a result, Goldman forecasts gold
prices at an average of $1,836 per ounce in 2020 and $2,300 per ounce in 2021, and expects
silver prices to be at around $22 per ounce in 2020 and $30 per ounce next year .
Non-energy commodities could see an "immediate upside" as the market balances tighten ahead
of expectations on strong demand from China and weather-driven risks, the Goldman Sachs
analysts said.
The bank maintained a "neutral" view on commodities in the near term and "overweight" in the
medium term.
The $100-plus million blitz includes at least $22 million from Facebook co-founder Dustin
Moskovitz, according to an exclusive report from Recode, a subdivision of Vox. Another
Democratic megadonor involved is former Google and Alphabet CEO Eric Schmidt, currently
advising the Pentagon on technology innovation.
Called Future Forward, the super PAC has filed federal paperwork on Tuesday disclosing that
it has raised $66 million between September 1 and October 15. It has contracted for $106
million of TV ads between September 29 and November 3, according to media tracking firm
Advertising Analytics. This makes it the largest Biden booster outside the Democrats' campaign
itself, already a fundraising juggernaut.
Recode also reported that Future Forward "has been recommended in private communications
by the team of Reid Hoffman." He is the LinkedIn co-founder and Democratic megadonor
previously caught funding a disinformation
campaign during the 2017 special Senate election in Alabama, in which a company called New
Knowledge created a Twitter army of 'Russian bots' pretending to back the Republican candidate.
It was unclear from the Recode story whether Hoffman had contributed any funding to Moskovitz's
super PAC.
"... Corporate Democrats' anxiety and fear that they could lose control over the party became quite evident during latest party convention, as they tried hard to "bury" their own progressives while gave plenty of time to neoliberal Republicans and war criminals to speak. ..."
globinfo
freexchange
As we explained
previously, what we see now in the United States with Trump, is a counter-attack by the part of
the American capital against the globalist faction. The faction that is primarily consisted by
the liberal plutocracy. Therefore, as the capitalist class splits, the capitalists around Trump
are now taking with them the most conservative part of the American society, as they need
electoral power. They have the money and their own media network. Their first big victory was
Trump in the US presidency and this explains why the liberal media attack him so hard and so
frequently.
The COVID-19 pandemic added more chaos in the ongoing civil war between capitalists and (as
always), the working class is paying the price for the additional mess.
The DNC
establishment fought hard, one more time, to get rid of Bernie Sanders in order to impose its
own - fully controllable and fully dedicated to the neoliberal status quo - Joe Biden/Kamala
Harris duo. Obviously, this was an attempt by the corporate Democrats to challenge and beat
Trump without harming neoliberal order through a Socialist like Sanders in the leadership of
the Democratic Party. Still, the DNC establishment couldn't take full control of the whole
situation as the most popular progressives, like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, renewed their
position in the party through big victories in the 2020 primaries. Furthermore, the progressive
army came out stronger through significant
additional victories like Cori Bush's.
Corporate Democrats' anxiety and fear that they could lose control over the party became quite
evident during latest party convention, as they tried
hard to "bury" their own progressives while gave plenty of time to neoliberal
Republicans and war criminals to speak.
And, actually, this is the main reason that the corporate Democrats want so desperately to beat
Trump in November's election.
With a potential Biden victory the corporate Dems will re-establish their position in the party
against progressives, as they will be able to play the Trump-scare card for four more years.
During that time, they will get all the help they want from the liberal media to bury forever
the most popular Socialist policies. Simply by claiming that the Trump nightmare could return
in 2024. Therefore, they will demand "unity" from all party members under their own terms, in
short, under full restoration of the neoliberal status quo. Under these circumstances,
corporate Democrats will have plenty of time to assist the liberal plutocrats to
take over directly the party in 2024.
On the contrary, with a potential Trump victory the Trump-scare card will be burned for good
and corporate Democrats won't be able to use it as Trump won't be able to have another term in
2024.
In that case, corporate Democrats will receive additional pressure from the progressive wing
and progressive voters, as these will demand radical changes inside the party towards popular
policies. The liberal capitalist faction will face the serious threat to be left without
political power, which by 2024, will be restricted to some moderate Republicans who are
dedicated to the neoliberal doctrine. The dream of the liberal plutocrats to take over
political power directly will die forever.
And this could be proved decisive for the outcome of
the endo-capitalist war between the liberal plutocrats and the Trump-affiliated
capitalists.
At this point American politics is a dispute among two Jewish factions, Trump is a pawn
of the Zionist faction and was targeted for destruction by the Cosmopolitan faction. Whoever
wins, we loose!
@Ghali
ary. The Israeli/Zionist elites care about their constituents opinions about as much as the
elites in any group. ZERO. There's a big club and we ain't in it.
The Israeli/Zionist elites wanted war with Iran or slapping them back economically to the
middle ages. Hillary was going to leave the Iran deal in place and Trump was going to tear it
up.
Trump paid for his re-election by murdering Solemani. Trump felt he couldn't start a war
in his first term so offered that up to get their support. He will be re-elected in big part
because he solidified his position with them as the anti-Iran candidate.
Former Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney released an extraordinary statement on
Tuesday, decrying a political scene he said "has moved away from spirited debate to a vile,
vituperative, hate-filled morass, that is unbecoming of any free nation." "The world is
watching America with abject horror," he added.
Romney tweeted his statement under the title "My thoughts on the current state of our
politics." "I have stayed quiet," he said, "with the approach of the election." "But I'm
troubled by our politics," the sole Republican to vote to impeach Trump added in his
statement.
"The president calls the Democratic vice-presidential candidate 'a monster'. He repeatedly
labels the Speaker of the House 'crazy.' He calls for the justice department to put the prior
president in jail. He attacks the governor of Michigan on the very day a plot is discovered
to kidnap her. Democrats launch blistering attacks of their own, though their presidential
nominee refuses to stoop as low as others," Romney, a Utah senator who was the 2012
Republican nominee for president, complained in the statement.
Though superficially trying to appear "fair and balanced" in the didactic sermon
patronizingly delivered by the only adult in the room full of political upstarts, Romney's
perceptible bias in the polemical diatribe was hard not to be noticed.
It defies explanation if he didn't watch the presidential debate or consciously elided over
the sordid episode where the Democratic presidential nominee contemptuously sneered at his
political rival with derogatory epithets such as "a clown, a racist and Putin's puppy."
I'm not sure if Biden was high on meth during the debate, as Trump had repeatedly been
insinuating, or he lacks basic etiquette to act like a dignified statesman, but only
amphetamines could make a person take leave of his senses and insolently yell at the president
of the US, "Will you shut up, man," while ironically complaining, "This is so
unpresidential."
Though a longtime Republican senator, Mitt Romney's loyalty to the GOP was compromised due
to a personal spat with Trump. In the Republican primaries of the 2016 US presidential
elections, Romney severely castigated Trump, calling him "a phony and a fraud."
After Trump was elected president, he dangled the carrot of the secretary of state
appointment to Romney, invited him to a dinner in a swanky New York restaurant, made him eat
his words and fawn all over Trump like a servile toady. But later, he gave one of the most
coveted appointments in the US bureaucratic hierarchy to oil executive Rex Tillerson.
Romney felt humiliated to the extent that in Trump's vulnerable moment, after impeachment
proceedings were initiated against him in the Senate in February, Romney became the only US
senator in the American political history who voted against his own Republican Party
president.
Though lacking intellect and often ridiculed for frequent spelling errors on his Twitter
timeline, such as "unpresidented" and "covfefe," implying he gets his news feed from television
talk shows and rarely reads book and articles, Donald Trump is street smart and his
anti-globalization agenda and down-to-earth attitude appeal to the American working
classes.
Nevertheless, it's quite easy for the neuroscientists on the payroll of the national
security establishment to manipulate the minds of such impressionable politicians and lead them
by the nose to toe the line of the deep state, particularly on foreign policy matters. No
wonder national security shills disparagingly sneer at the president as the
"toddler-in-chief."
In 2017, a couple of caricatures went viral on social media. In one of those caricatures,
Donald Trump was depicted as a child sitting on a chair and Vladimir Putin was shown whispering
something into Trump's ears from behind. In the other, Trump was portrayed sitting in Steve
Bannon's lap and the latter was shown mumbling into Trump's ears, "Who is the big boy now?" And
Trump was shown replying, "I am the big boy."
The meaning conveyed by those cunningly crafted caricatures was to illustrate that Trump
lacks the intelligence to think for himself and that he was being manipulated and played around
by Putin and Bannon. Those caricatures must have affronted the vanity of Donald Trump to an
extent that after the publication of those caricatures, he became ill-disposed toward Putin and
sacked Bannon from his job as the White House Chief Strategist in August 2017, only seven
months into the first year of the Trump presidency.
Bannon was the principal ideologue of the American alt-right movement. Though the alt-right
agenda of the Trump presidency has been scuttled by the deep state, Trump's views regarding
global politics and economics are starkly different from the establishment Democrats and
Republicans pursuing neocolonial world order masqueraded as globalization and free trade.
Besides the Trump supporters in the United States, the far-right populist leaders in Europe
are also exploiting popular resentment against free trade and globalization. The Brexiteers in
the United Kingdom, the Yellow Vest protesters in France and the far-right movements in Germany
and across Europe are a manifestation of a paradigm shift in the global economic order in which
nationalist and protectionist slogans have replaced the free trade and globalization mantra of
the nineties.
Donald Trump withdrawing the United States from multilateral treaties, restructuring trade
agreements and initiating a trade war against China are meant to redress, at least
cosmetically, the legitimate grievances of the American working classes against the wealth
disparity created by laissez-faire capitalism and market fundamentalism.
Michael Crowley reported for the New
York Times last month that American allies and former US Officials fear Trump could seek
NATO exit in a second term. According to the report, "This summer, Mr. Trump's former national
security adviser John R. Bolton published a book that described the president as repeatedly
saying he wanted to quit the NATO alliance. Last month, Mr. Bolton speculated to a Spanish
newspaper that Mr. Trump might even spring an 'October surprise' shortly before the election by
declaring his intention to leave the alliance in a second term."
The report notes, "In a book published this week, Michael S. Schmidt, a New York Times
reporter, wrote that Mr. Trump's former chief of staff John F. Kelly, a retired four-star
Marine general, told others that 'one of the most difficult tasks he faced with Trump was
trying to stop him from pulling out of NATO.' One person who has heard Mr. Kelly speak in
private settings confirmed that he had made such remarks."
Crowley adds, "Donald Trump now relies on 'a team of inexperienced bureaucrats' and has
grown more confident and assertive, as he has already sacked seasoned national security
advisers, including John F. Kelly; Jim Mattis, another retired four-star Marine general and
Trump's first defense secretary; and H.R. McMaster, a retired three-star Army general and
Trump's former national security adviser."
In fact, the Trump administration announced plans in July to withdraw 12,000 American troops
from Germany and sought to cut funding for the Pentagon's European Deterrence Initiative. About
half of the troops withdrawn from Germany were re-deployed in Europe, mainly in Italy and
Poland, and the rest returned to the US.
Similarly, although full withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan was originally scheduled
for April next year, according to terms of peace deal reached with the Taliban on February 29,
President Trump hastened the withdrawal process by making an electoral pledge this week that
all troops should be "home by Christmas." "We should have the small remaining number of our
BRAVE Men and Women serving in Afghanistan home by Christmas," he tweeted last week.
Even the arch-foes of the US in Afghanistan effusively praised President Trump's peace
overtures. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid
told CBS News in a phone interview last week, "We hope he will win the election and wind up
US military presence in Afghanistan."
The militant group also expressed concern about President Trump's bout with the coronavirus.
"When we heard about Trump being COVID-19 positive, we got worried for his health, but it seems
he is getting better," another Taliban senior leader confided to reporter Sami Yousafzai.
Moreover, Iran-backed militias
recently announced "conditional" cease-fire against the US forces in Iraq on the condition
that Washington present a timetable for the withdrawal of its troops. The US-led coalition has
already departed from smaller bases across Iraq and promised to reduce its troop presence from
5,200 to 3,000 in the next couple of months, though Iraq's parliament passed a resolution
urging the full withdrawal of US troops in January.
There is no denying the fact that the four years of the Trump presidency have been unusually
tumultuous in the American political history, but if one takes a cursory look at the list of
all the Trump aides who resigned or were otherwise sacked, almost all of them were national
security officials.
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In fact, scores of former Republican national security officials recently made their
preference public that they would vote in the upcoming US presidential elections for Democrat
Joe Biden instead of Republican Donald Trump against party lines.
What does that imply? It is an incontrovertible proof that the latent conflict between the
deep state and the elected representatives of the American people has come to a head during the
Trump presidency.
Although far from being a vocal critic of the deep state himself, the working-class
constituency that Trump represents has had enough with the global domination agenda of the
national security establishment. The American electorate wants the US troops returned home, and
wants to focus on national economy and redress wealth disparity instead of acting as global
police waging "endless wars" thousands of miles away from the US territorial borders.
Addressing a convention of conservatives last year, Trump publicly castigated his own
generals, much to the dismay of neoliberal chauvinists upholding American exceptionalism and
militarism, by revealing: "I learn more sometimes from soldiers what's going on, than I do from
generals. I do. I hate to say it. I tell the generals all the time."
At another occasion, he ruffled more feathers by telling the reporters: "I'm not saying the
military's in love with me. The soldiers are. The top people in the Pentagon probably aren't
because they want to do nothing but fight wars so all of those wonderful companies that make
the bombs and make the planes and make everything else stay happy."
In a note which we are confident will go swimmingly with millions of Americans who lost
their jobs in the past six months, Goldman's economics team writes that "scarring effect" from
the pandemic recession has been "surprisingly limited" and the "damage has so far been much
less than initially feared" in what is likely the most upbeat take on the current economy and
one wonders if it involved any research outside of Tribeca.
After saying tthat the early weeks of the virus shock the Goldman economists "began to
closely track measures of long-term damage to businesses and the labor force" with many
businesses facing near-total collapses in revenue and 25 million jobs lost in little over a
month, "the threat of deep scarring effects loomed over the US economy." Instead, things have
been far better than expected.
Looking at the business sector first, Jan Hatzius and team write that the "scarring effects
on the business sector remain surprisingly limited" as commercial bankruptcy filings have run
below the pre-pandemic trend, most business closures during the worst months of the pandemic
have proved temporary, and new business formation has surged recently.
A similar cheerful conclusion emerges when Goldman looks at the labor force, with the
Goldman economists writing that "scarring effects on the labor force have also been less severe
than feared" , as unemployment has fallen sharply, "and most of the remaining job losers are
either still on temporary layoff or are in industries that should largely recover with a
vaccine." In addition, Goldman observes, "labor demand has rebounded much more quickly than
last cycle, reducing the risk of widespread long-term unemployment."
Ludicrous? Insane? Hilarious? Perhaps all three, yet here are some of the data Goldman used
to reach its arguably offensive to tens of millions of Americans conclusion:
The left side of Exhibit 1 shows that total commercial bankruptcy filings reported by the
American Bankruptcy Institute have actually run below the pre-pandemic trend. While a recent
San Francisco Fed report
noted with alarm that Chapter 11 bankruptcies are running at the fastest pace since 2013,
this largely reflects recent changes to the bankruptcy code and it has been more than offset
by declines in other commercial bankruptcy filings.
The right side of Exhibit 1 shows that Bloomberg's count of bankruptcies at large
companies did briefly spike to a level that approached the financial crisis peak. But as our
credit strategists have shown, the majority of these were firms already on a path to default
before the pandemic, not otherwise healthy businesses needlessly sunk by an unprecedented
shock.
In other words, Goldman contends that while there was a spike in defaults, it was largely
among those companies that were already levered to the hilt and would have filed anyway. The
covid crisis merely accelerated their demise, which come to thing of it, is what the covid
virus is also doing with most of the elderly people it affects and who die not so much from the
virus as due to other underlying, chronic or acute conditions, whose impact is merely
accentuated to the point of lethality by covid.
What about Goldman's optimistic take on the labor market?
Here the economists argue that the silver lining of the employment collapse was the very
high share of temporary layoffs shown in Exhibit 3, historically something which they say is "a
reliable signal of rapid recovery" even as those permanently laid off is an dangerously high
number, the highest since 2013, Goldman's spin notwithstanding.
To elucidate their point, Goldman next claims that just five months later, the number of
newly unemployed workers since the virus shock has indeed declined dramatically, and about half
still report that they are on temporary layoff. While not all of these workers will return to
their old positions, this nevertheless points to further outsized job gains in coming
months.
Here Bank of America disagrees, and lays out three cyclical forces today that spell out far
greater pain for the labor force than GOldman is willing to admit, to wit:
History repeats: skill mismatch yet again. Given the lack of demand for services-travel,
entertainment, etc.-there will likely end up being discouraged workers in this sector. The
skills are not easily transferrable to other sectors-particularly on the goods side of the
economy where demand has been resilient.
Disengagement from the labor force due to health or childcare: the threat of the virus
has left many people with extremely difficult decisions to make. Some may decide that the
risk of falling sick with COVID in their workplace is too significant and thus will
voluntarily leave the workforce, particularly for those who are close to retirement. Parents
also struggle with child-care issues-it may be hard for parents to fully return to work until
they are able to feel confident that their children can return to prior educational
arrangements or daycare. This could make it difficult to have two working parents-the burden
tends to be disproportionally on women. As long as the virus remains a threat, there will be
a portion of the workforce on the sidelines.
Reengagment in the labor force because of the "telepresence revolution": over the
medium-term, the shift toward greater virtual / remote working could be a positive for the
LFPR. According to the BLS's Time-Use Survey, about 8% of the workforce worked from home at
least one day a week prior to COVID. According to research from the Atlanta Fed in which the
authors compared the Time-Use Survey results to current survey analysis, they find that the
share of working days from home is set to triple after the pandemic. Similarly, the BofA
Global Research data analytics team surveyed the companies across the research coverage for
their latest expectations on the timing for return to the office - the results show that only
80% of employees will be expected to be fully back in the office by the end of 2021.
While Goldman acknowledges this, saying that "not all workers who lost jobs in
virus-sensitive industries will return to them when a vaccine becomes available, and many
layoffs are likely to prove permanent" but then adds that "workers who have to switch jobs or
even occupations already face much better prospects for re-employment than after previous
recessions."
So it's all good, see? Well, maybe not: even Goldman had to concede that long-term
unemployment rose in September and is likely to rise somewhat further in the October jobs
report as more workers who lost their jobs in the first month of the pandemic cross the
half-year mark. But even here Goldman finds a silver lining, and writes that "the rapid
recovery of labor demand and faster pace of labor reallocation is a striking contrast with past
recessions that should help most workers avoid the very long unemployment spells seen last
cycle."
In short, there is virtually nothing about the devastation endured by businesses and workers
that Goldman's well-trained economists can't spin into a positive outcome, and as they
summarize "scarring effects on businesses and the labor force have so far proven much less
severe than initially feared."
This, they conclude, "bodes well for the economy's medium-term recovery prospects and is one
more reason for Goldman's above-consensus 2021 growth forecast." What about the withdrawal of
fiscal support which has forced Americans to draw down drastically on
their savings which were boosted by the massive fiscal stimulus ...
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Surely at least that has to be positive? Well, as Hatzius agrees, it does raise some risks
over the next few months, but then the chief economist counters that "we expect a vaccine and
further fiscal support next year -- including another round of small business funding, even in
a divided government scenario -- to limit the long-term damage and keep the economy on track
for a much more rapid than usual recovery."
To this all one can say is wow : and while we certainly would urge the Goldman economists to
read something like " A
devastating experience:' Temporary layoffs just became permanent for millions of American
workers , and "
Ex-Bankruptcy Judge Says Worse Is Yet To Come ", we have two questions: just why did
Goldman publish such a puff piece - what does it stand to gain by gutting its reputation for at
least pretend-objective analysis - and question number two: has anyone on the Goldman economics
team actually stepped one foot outside their academic tri-state ivory tower in the past
year?
Before juxtaposing the U.S. and alternative responses to the corona virus's economic
effects, [1]
I would like to step back in time to show how the pandemic has revealed a deep underlying
problem. We are seeing the consequences of Western societies painting themselves into a debt
corner by their creditor-oriented philosophy of law. Neoliberal anti-government (or more
accurately, anti-democratic) ideology has centralized social planning and state power in "the
market," meaning specifically the financial market on Wall Street and in other financial
centers.
At issue is who will lose when employment and business activity are disrupted. Will it be
creditors and landlords at the top of the economic scale, or debtors and renters at the bottom?
This age-old confrontation over how to deal with the unpaid rents, mortgages and other debt
service is at the heart of today's virus pandemic as large and small businesses, farms,
restaurants and neighborhood stores have fallen into arrears, leaving businesses and households
– along with their employees who have no wage income to pay these carrying charges that
accrue each month.
This is an age-old problem. It was solved in the ancient Near East simply by annulling these
debt and rent charges. But the West, shaped as it still is by the legacy of the Roman Empire,
has left itself prone to the massive unemployment, business closedowns and resulting arrears
for these basic costs of living and doing business.
Western civilization distinguishes itself from its Near Eastern predecessors in the way it
has responded to "acts of God" that disrupt the means of support and leave debts in their wake.
The United States has taken the lead in rejecting the path by which China, and even social
democratic European nations have prevented the corona virus from causing widespread insolvency
and polarizing their economies. The U.S. corona virus lockdown is turning rent and debt arrears
into an opportunity to impoverish the indebted economy and transfer mortgaged property and its
income to creditors.
There is no inherent material need for this fate to occur. But it seems so natural and even
inevitable that, as Margaret Thatcher would say, There Is No Alternative.
But of course there is, and always has been. However, resilience in the face of economic
disruption always has required a central authority to override "market forces" to restore
economic balance from "above."
Individualistic economies cannot do that. To the extent that they have a strong state, they
are not democratic but oligarchic, controlled by the financial sector in its own interest, in
tandem with its symbiotic real estate sector and monopolized infrastructure. That is why every
successful society since the Bronze Age has been a mixed economy. The determining factor in
whether or not an economic disruption leaves a crippled economy in its wake turns out to be
whether its financial sector is a public utility or is privatized from the debt-strapped public
domain as a means to enrich bankers and money-lenders at the expense of debtors and overall
economic balance.
China is using an age-old policy common ever since Hammurabi and other Bronze Age rulers
promoted economic resilience in the face of "acts of God." Unless personal debts, rents and
taxes that cannot be paid are annulled, the result will be widespread bankruptcy,
impoverishment and homelessness. In contrast to America's financialized economy, China has
shown how natural it is for society simply to acknowledge that debts, rents, taxes and other
carrying charges of living and doing business cannot resume until economic normalcy is able to
resume.
Near Eastern protection of economic resilience in the face of Acts of God
Ancient societies had a different logic from those of modern capitalist economies. Their
logic – and the Jewish Mosaic Law of Leviticus 25, as well as classical Greek and Roman
advocates of democratic reform – was similar to modern socialism. The basic principle at
work was to subordinate market relations to the needs of society at large, not to enrich a
financial rentier class of creditors and absentee landowners. More specifically, the
basic principle was to cancel debts that could not normally be paid, and prevent creditors from
foreclosing on the land of debtors.
All economies operate on credit. In modern economies bills for basic expenses are paid
monthly or quarterly. Ancient economies operated on credit during the crop year, with payment
falling due when the harvest was in – typically on the threshing floor. This cycle
normally provided a flow of crops and corvée labor to the palace, and covered the
cultivator's spending during the crop year. Interest typically was owed only when payment was
late.
But bad harvests, military conflict or simply the normal hardships of life frequently
prevented this buildup of debt from being paid. Mesopotamian palaces had to decide who would
bear the loss when drought, flooding, infestation, disease or military attack prevented the
payment of debts, rents and taxes. Seeing that this was an unavoidable fact of life, rulers
proclaimed amnesties for taxes and these various obligations incurred during the crop year.
That saved smallholders from having to work off their debts in personal bondage to their
creditors and ultimately to lose their land.
For these palatial economies, resilience meant stabilization of fiscal revenue. Letting
private creditors (often officials in the palace's own bureaucracy) demand payment out of
future production threatened to deprive rulers of crop surpluses and other taxes, and
corvée labor or even service in the military. But for thousands of years, Near Eastern
rulers restored fiscal viability for their economies by writing down debts, not only in
emergencies but more or less regularly to relieve the normal creeping backlog of debts.
These Clean Slates extended from Sumer and Babylonia in the 3 rd millennium BC to
classical antiquity, including the neo-Assyrian, neo-Babylonian and Persian Empires. They
restored normal economic relations by rolling back the consequences of debts personal and
agrarian debts – bondage to creditors, and loss of land and its crop yield. From the
palace's point of view as tax collector and seller of many key goods and services, the
alternative would have been for debtors to owe their crops, labor and even liberty to their
creditors, not to the palace. So cancelling debts to restore normalcy was simply pragmatic, not
utopian idealism as was once thought.
The pedigree for "act-of-God" rules specifying what obligations need not be paid when
serious disruptions occur goes back to the laws of Hammurabi c. 1750 BC. Their aim was to
restore economic normalcy after major disruptions. §48 of Hammurabi's laws proclaim a debt
and tax amnesty for cultivators if Adad the Storm God has flooded their fields, or if their
crops fail as a result of pests or drought. Crops owed as rent or fiscal payments were freed
from having to be paid. So were consumer debts run up during the crop year, including tabs at
the local ale house and advances or loans from individual creditors. The ale woman likewise was
freed from having to pay for the ale she had received from palace or temples for sale during
the crop year.
Whoever leased an animal that died by an act of god was freed from liability to its owner
(§266). A typical such amnesty occurred if the lamb, ox or ass was eaten by a lion, or if
an epidemic broke out. Likewise, traveling merchants who were robbed while on commercial
business were cleared of liability if they swore an oath that they were not responsible for the
loss (§103).
It was realized that hardship was so inevitable that debts tended to accrue even under
normal conditions. Every ruler of Hammurabi's dynasty proclaimed a Clean Slate cancelling
personal agrarian debts (but left normal commercial business loans intact) upon taking the
throne, and when military or other disruptions occurred during their reign. Hammurabi did this
on four occasions. 2
Bronze Age rulers could not afford to let such bondage and concentration of property and
wealth to become chronic. Labor was the scarcest resource, so a precondition for survival was
to prevent creditors from using debt leverage to obtain the labor of debtors and appropriate
their land. Rulers therefore acted to prevent creditors from becoming a wealthy class seeking
gains by impoverishing debtors and taking crop yields and land for themselves.
By rejecting such alleviations of debts resulting from economic disruption, the U.S. economy
is subjecting itself to depression, homelessness and economic polarization. It is saving
stockholders and bondholders instead of the economy at large. That is because today's
rentier interests take the economic surplus in the form of debt service, holding labor
and also corporate industry in bondage. Mortgage debt is the price of obtaining a home of one's
own. Student debt is the price of getting an education to get a job. Automobile debt is needed
to buy a car to drive to the job, and credit-card debt must be run up to pay for living costs
beyond what one is able to earn. This deep indebtedness makes workers afraid to go on strike or
even to protect working conditions, because being fired is to lose the ability to pay debts and
rents. So the rising debt overhead serves the business and financial sector by lowering wage
levels while extracting more interest, financial fees, rent and insurance out of their
take-home pay.
Debt deflation and the transition from finance capitalism to an Austerity Economy
By injecting $10 trillion into the financial markets (when Federal Reserve credit is added
to U.S. Treasury allocation), the CARES act enabled the stock market to recover all of its 34
percent drop (as measured by the S&P 500 stocks) by June 9, even as the economy's GDP was
still plunging. The government's new money creation was not spent to revive the real economy of
production and consumption, but at least the financial One Percent was saved from loss. It was
as if prosperity and living standards would somehow return to normal in a V-shaped
recovery.
But what is "normal" these days? For 95 percent of the population, their share of GDP
already had been falling ever since the Obama Depression began with the bank bailout in 2009,
leaving an enormous bad-debt overhead in place. The economy's long upswing since World War II
was already grinding to an end as it struggled to carry its debt burden, rising housing costs,
health care and related monthly "nut." 3
This is not what was expected 75 years ago. World War II ended with families and businesses
rife with savings and with little debt, as there had been little to buy during the wartime
years. But ever since, each business cycle recovery has started with a higher ratio of debt to
income, diverting more revenue from business, households and governments to pay banks and
bondholders. This debt burden raises the economy's cost of living and doing business, while
leaving less wage income and profit to be spent on goods and services.
The virus pandemic has merely acted as a catalyst ending of the long postwar boom. Yet even
as the U.S. and other Western economies begin to buckle under their debt overhead, little
thought has been given to how to extricate them from the debts and defaults that have
accelerated as a result of the broad economic disruption.
The "business as usual" approach is to let creditors foreclose and draw all the income and
wealth over subsistence needs into their own hands. Economies have reached the point where
debts can be paid only by shrinking production and consumption, leaving them as strapped as
Greece has been since 2015. Rejecting debt writedowns to restore social balance was implanted
at the outset of modern Western civilization. Ever since Roman times it has become normal for
creditors to use social misfortune as an opportunity to gain property and income at the expense
of families falling into debt. Blocking the emergence of democratic civic regimes empowered to
protect debtors, creditor interests have promoted laws that force debtors to lose their land or
other means of livelihood to foreclosing creditors or sell it under distress conditions and
have to work off their debts.
In times of a general economic disruption, giving priority to creditor claims leads to
widespread bankruptcy. Yet it violates most peoples' ideas of fairness and distributive justice
to evict debtors from their homes and take whatever property they have if they cannot pay their
rent arrears and other charges that have accrued through no fault of their own. Bankruptcy
proceedings will force many businesses and farms to forfeit what they have invested to much
wealthier buyers. Many small businesses, especially in urban minority neighborhoods, will see
yeas of saving and investment wiped out. The lockdown also forces U.S. cities and states to
cope with plunging sales- and income-tax revenue by slashing social services and depleting
their pension funds savings to pay bondholders. Balancing their budgets by privatizing hitherto
public services will create monopoly rents and new corporate empires
These outcomes are not necessary. They also are inequitable, and instead of being a survival
of the fittest and most efficient economic solutions, they are a victory for the most
successfully predatory. Yet such results are the product of a long-pedigreed legal and
financial philosophy promoted by banks and bondholders, landlords and insurance companies
reject economy-wide debt relief. They depict writing down debts and rents owed to them as
unthinkable. Banks claim that forgiving personal and business rents would lead absentee
landlords to default on their mortgages, threatening bank solvency. Insurance companies claim
that to make their policy holders whole would bankrupt them. 4 So something has to give: either the population's broad economic interests, or
the vested interests insisting that labor, industry and the government must bear the cost of
arrears that have built up during the economic shutdown.
As in oligarchic Rome, financial interests in today's world have gained control of
governments and captured the political and regulatory agencies, leaving democratic reformers
powerless to suspend debt service, rent arrears, evictions and depression. The West is becoming
a highly centrally planned economy, but its planning center is Wall Street, not Washington or
state and local governments.
Rising real estate arrears prompt a mortgage bailout
Canada and many European governments are subsidizing businesses to pay up to 80 percent of
employee wages even though many must stay home. But for the 40 million Americans who haven't
been employed during the closedown, the prospect is for homelessness and desperation. Already
before the crisis about half of Americans reported that they were living paycheck to paycheck
and could not raise $400 in an emergency. When the paychecks stopped, rents could not be paid,
nor could other normal monthly living expenses.
America is seeing the end of the home ownership boom that endowed its middle class with
property steadily rising in price. For buyers, the price was rising mortgage debt, as bank
credit was the major factor in raising property prices. (A home is worth however much a bank
will lend against it.) For non-whites, to be sure, neighborhoods were redlined against racial
minorities. By the early 2000s, banks began to make loans to black and Hispanic buyers, but
usually at extortionately high interest rates and stiffer debt terms. America's white home
buyers now face a fate similar to that which they have long imposed on minorities:
Debt-inflated purchase prices for homes so high that they leave buyers strapped by mortgage and
compulsory insurance payments, with declining public services in their neighborhoods.
When mortgages can't be paid, foreclosures follow. That causes declines in the proportion of
Americans that own their own homes. That home ownership rate already had dropped from about 58
percent in 2008 to about 51 percent at the start of 2020. Since the 2008 mortgage-fraud crisis
and President Obama's mass foreclosure program that hit minorities and low-income buyers
especially hard, a more landlord-ridden economy has emerged as a result of foreclosed
properties and companies bought by speculators and vast absentee-owner companies like
Blackstone.
Many businesses that closed down did not pay the landlords. Realizing that if they are held
responsible for paying full rents that accrued during the shutdown, it would take them over a
year to make up the payment, leaving no net earnings for their efforts. That was especially the
case for restaurants with compulsory limited "distance" seating and other stores obliged to
restrict the density of their customers. Many restaurants and other neighborhood stores decided
to go out of business. For hotels standing largely empty, some 19 percent of mortgage loans had
fallen into arrears already by May, along with about 10 percent of retail stores. 5
The commercial real estate sector owes $2.4 trillion in mortgage debt. About 40 percent of
tenants did not pay their rents for March, April and May, from restaurants and storefronts to
large national retail markets. A moratorium on evictions put them off until August or September
2020. But in the interim, quarterly state and local property taxes were due in June, which also
was when the annual federal income-tax payment was owed for the year 2019, having been
postponed from April in the face of the shutdown.
The prospective break in the chain of payments of landlords to their banks may be bailed out
by the Federal Reserve, but nobody can come up with a scenario whereby the debts owed by
non-elites can be paid out of their own resources, any more than they were rescued from the
junk-mortgage frauds that left over-mortgaged homes (mainly for low-income victims) in the wake
of Obama's decision to support the banks and mortgage brokers instead of their victims. In
fact, it takes a radical scenario to see how state and local debt can be paid as public budgets
are thrown into limbo by the virus pandemic.
The fiscal squeeze forces governments to privatize public services and assets
Since 1945, the normal Keynesian response to an economic slowdown has been for governments
to run budget deficits to revive the economy and employment. But that can't happen in the wake
of the 2020 pandemic. For one thing, tax revenue is falling. Governments can create domestic
money, of course, but the U.S. government quickly ran up a $2 trillion deficit by June 2020
simply to support Wall Street's financial and corporate markets, leaving a fiscal squeeze when
it came to public spending into the real economy. Many U.S. states and cities have laws
obliging them to balance their budgets. So public spending into the real economy (instead of
just into the financial and corporate markets) had to be cut back.
Sales taxes from restaurants and hotels, income taxes, and property taxes from landlords not
receiving rents. U.S. states and localities are having a huge tax shortfall that is forcing
them to cut back basic social services and infrastructure. New York City mayor de Blasio has
warned that schools, the police and public transportation may have to be cut back unless the
city is given $7 billion. The CARES act passed by the Democratic Party in control of the House
of Representatives made no attempt to allocate a single dollar to make up the widening fiscal
gap. As for the Trump administration, it was unwilling to give money to states voting
Democratic in the presidential or governorship elections.
The irony is that just at the time when a pandemic calls for public health care, political
pressure for that abruptly stopped. Logically, it might have been expected the virus to have
become a major catalyst for single-payer public health care, not least to prevent a wave of
personal bankruptcy resulting from high medical bills. But hopes were dashed when the leading
torch bearer for socialized medicine, Senator Bernie Sanders, threw his support behind Joe
Biden and other opponents for the presidential nomination instead of focusing the primary
elections on what the future of the Democratic Party would be. It decided to focus the 2020
U.S. election merely on the personality of which candidate would impose neoliberal policy:
Republican Donald Trump, or his opponent running simply on a platform of "I am not Trump."
Both candidates – and indeed, both parties behind them –sought to downsize
government and privatize as much of the public sector as possible, leaving administration to
financial managers. Past government policy would have restored prosperity by public spending
programs to to rebuild the roads and bridges, trains and subways that have fallen apart. But
the fiscal squeeze caused by the economic shutdown has created pressure to Thatcherize
America's crumbling transportation and urban infrastructure – and also to sell off land
and public enterprises, basic urban health, schools – and at the national level, the post
office. Fiscal budgets are to be balanced by selling off this infrastructure, in lucrative
Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs) with financial firms.
The neoliberal rent-extractive plan is for private capital to buy monopoly rights to repair
the nation's bridges by turning them into toll bridges, to repair the nation's roads and
highways by making the toll roads, to repair sewer systems by privatizing them. Schools,
prisons, hospitals and other traditionally public functions. Even the police are to be
privately owned security-guard agencies and managed for profit – on terms that will
provide interest and capital gains for the financial sector. It is a New Enclosures movement
seeking monopoly rent much as landlords extract land rent.
Having given $10 trillion dollars to support financial and mortgage markets, neoliberals in
both the Republican and Democratic parties announced that the government had created so large a
budget deficit as a result of bailing out the banking and landlord class that it lacked any
more room for money creation for actual social spending programs. Republican Senate leader
Mitch McConnell advised states to solve their budget squeeze by raiding their pension funds to
pay their bondholders.
For many decades, public employees accepted low wage growth in exchange for pensions. Their
patient choice was to defer demands for wage increases in order to secure good pensions for
their retirement. But now that they have worked at stagnant wages for many years, the money
ostensibly saved for their pensions is to be given to bondholders. Likewise at the federal
level, pressure was renewed by both parties to cut back Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid,
with Obama's 2010 Simpson-Bowles Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform to reduce the
deficit at the expense of retirees and the poor.
In sum, money is being created to fuel the financial sector and its stock and bond markets,
not to increase the economy's solvency, employment and living standards. The corona virus
pandemic did not create this shift, but it catalyzed and accelerated the power grab, not least
by pushing public-sector budgets into crisis.
It doesn't have to be this way
Every successful economy has been a mixed public/private economy with checks on the
financial sector's power to indebt society in ways that impoverish it. Always at issue,
however, is who will control the government. As American and European industry becomes more
debt ridden, will they be oligarchic or democratic?
A socialist government such as China's can keep its industry going simply by simply writing
down debts when they can't be paid without forcing a closedown and bankruptcy and loss of
assets and employment. The world thus has two options: a basically productive public financial
system in China, or a predatory financial system in the United States.
China can recover financially and fiscally from the virus disruption because most debts
ultimately are owned to the government-based banking system. Money can be created to finance
the material economy, labor and industry, construction and agriculture. When a company is
unable to pay its bills and rent, the government doesn't stand by and let it be closed down and
sold at a distressed price to a vulture investor.
China has an option that Western economies do not: It is in a position to do what Hammurabi
and other ancient Near Eastern palatial economies did for thousands of years: write down debts
so as to keep the economy resilient and functioning. It can suspend scheduled debt service,
taxes, rents and public fees from having to be paid by troubled areas of its economy, because
China's government is the ultimate creditor. It need not contend with politically powerful
bankers who insist that the economy at large must lose, not themselves. The government can
write down the debt to keep companies in business, and also their employees. That's what
socialist governments do.
The underlying problem is finance capitalism. Its roots lie at the heart of Western
civilization itself, rejecting the "circular time" permitting economic renewal by Clean Slates
in favor of "linear time" in which debts are permanent and irreversible, without public
oversight to manage finance and credit in the economy's overall long-term interest.
It often is easier to get rich in such times of disaster and need than in times of normal
prosperity. While the U.S. economy polarizes between creditors and debtors, the stock market
anticipates fortunes being made quickly from the insolvency of business with assets and
property to be grabbed. Coupled with the Federal Reserve's credit creation to support the
financial and real estate markets, asset prices are soaring (as of June 2020) for companies
that expect to get even richer from the widespread distress to come in autumn 2020 when
evictions and foreclosures ae scheduled to begin again.
In that respect, the corona virus's effect has been to help defeat the financial sector's
enemy, governments strong enough to regulate it. The fiscal squeeze resulting from widespread
unemployment, business closedowns, rent and tax arrears is being seized upon as a means of
dismantling and privatizing government at the federal, state and local levels, at the expense
of the citizenry at large.
Notes
[1]WHEN CHINA SNEEZES: From the Coronavirus Lockdown to the Global Politico-Economic
Implications, Edited by Cynthia McKinney, Chapter 9, Economic Impact.
[2]
I provide a detailed history of Clean Slate acts from the Bronze Age down through Biblical
times and the Byzantine Empire in " and forgive them their debts" (ISLET 2018).
[3]
I provide the details in Killing the Host: How Financial Parasites and Debt Destroy the
Global Economy ((SLET, 2015).
[4]
Lawsuits are exploding over the role of insurance companies supposed to protect business from
such interruptions. See Julia Jacobs, "Arts Groups Fight Their Insurers Over Coverage on Virus
Losses," The New York Times , May 6, 2020, reports that "insurance companies have issued
a torrent of denials, prompting lawsuits across the country and legislative efforts on the
state and federal levels to force insurers to make payments. The insurance industry has argued
that fulfilling all of these requests would bankrupt the industry."
[5]
Conor Dougherty and Peter Eavis, "In Commercial Real Estate, the Domino Effect Escalates,"
The New York Times , June 9, 2020.
Michael
Hudson's newest interview on the Macro N Cheese Podcast either as a transcript or via
audio is all about the coming debt deflation and what he calls the Neofeudal Empire.
If you haven't already known, Hudson reminds you that:
Who is the dumbest economic Nobel Prize winner? [Paul Krugman?] Paul Krugman. That's right.
He was given a Nobel Prize for not understanding what money was. If he would have
understood it, that would've excluded him from getting the Nobel Prize.
8
OPEC in trouble as oil outlook worsens
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