May the source be with you, but remember the KISS principle ;-)
Bigger doesn't imply better. Bigger often is a sign of obesity, of lost control, of overcomplexity, of cancerous
cells
Since mid 2014 US MSM propagate the following bogus narrative: There is an oil glut in the USA
market in particular despite the fact that the USA increasing their import of oil. To cry about
glut on oil in the country which imports more and more oil is something new to me. That
can happen only if some produced oil is subpar and nobody wants it (comment from blog post
World oil supply and demand
Econbrowser)
The Great Condensate Con?
We have seen a large year over year increase in US and global
Crude + Condensate (C+C) inventories. For example, EIA data show that US C+C inventories increased
by 100 million barrels from late 2014 to late 2015, and this inventory build has contributed significantly
to the sharp decline in oil prices.
The question is, what percentage of the increase in US and global C+C inventories consists of
condensate?
Four week running average data showed the US net crude oil imports for the last four weeks of
December increased from 6.9 million bpd in 2014 to 7.3 million bpd in 2015. Why would US refiners
continue to import large–and increasing–volumes of actual crude oil, if they didn’t have to, even
as we saw a huge build in US C+C inventories? Note that what the EIA calls “Crude oil” is actually
C+C.
I frequently cite a Reuters article that discussed case histories of refiners increasingly rejecting
blends of heavy crude and condensate that technically meet the upper limit for WTI crude (42 API
gravity), but that are deficient in distillates. Of course, what the refiners are rejecting is the
condensate component, i.e., they are in effect saying that “We don’t want any more stinkin’ condensate.”
Following is an excerpt from the article:
U.S. refiners turn to tanker trucks to avoid ‘dumbbell’ crudes (March, 2015)
In a pressing quest to secure the best possible crude, U.S. refiners are increasingly going
straight to the source.
Firms such as Marathon Petroleum Corp and Delek U.S. Holdings are buying up tanker trucks
and extending local pipeline networks in order to get more oil directly from the wellhead, seeking
to cut back on blended crude cocktails they say can leave a foul aftertaste. . . .
Many executives say that the crude oil blends being created in Cushing are often substandard
approximations of West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the longstanding U.S. benchmark familiar to,
and favored by, many refiners in the region.
Typical light-sweet WTI crude has an API gravity of about 38 to 40. Condensate, or super-light
crude that is abundant in most U.S. shale patches, ranges from 45 to 60 or higher. Western Canadian
Select, itself a blend, is about 20.
While the blends of these crudes may technically meet the API gravity ceiling of 42 at Cushing,
industry players say the mixes can be inconsistent in makeup and generate less income because
the most desirable stuff is often missing.
The blends tend to produce a higher proportion of fuel at two ends of the spectrum: light ends
like gasoline, demand for which has dimmed in recent years, and lower-value heavy products like
fuel oil and asphalt. What’s missing are middle distillates like diesel, where growing demand
and profitability lies.
My premise is that US (and perhaps global) refiners hit, late in 2014, the upper limit of the
volume of condensate that they could process, if they wanted to maintain their distillate and heavier
output–resulting in a build in condensate inventories, reflected as a year over year build of 100
million barrels in US C+C inventories.
Therefore, in my opinion the US and (and perhaps globally) C+C inventory data are fundamentally
flawed, when it comes to actual crude oil inventory data. The most common dividing line between actual
crude oil and condensate is 45 API gravity, although the distillate yield drops off considerably
just going from 39 API to 42 API gravity crude, and the upper limit for WTI crude oil is 42 API.
In 2015, the EIA issued a report on US C+C production (what they call “Crude oil”), classifying
the C+C by API gravity, and the data are very interesting:
Note that 22% of US Lower 48 C+C production consists of condensate (45+ API gravity)
and note that about 40% of US Lower 48 C+C production exceeds the maximum API gravity for WTI crude
oil (42 API). The above chart goes a long way toward explaining why US net crude oil imports increased
from late 2014 to 2015, even as US C+ C inventories increased by 100 million barrels, and I suspect
that what is true for the US may also be true for the world, in regard to the composition of global
C+C inventories.
Following is my analysis of global C+C production data versus estimated global crude oil production
data, through 2014, using the available data bases:
How Quickly Can US Tight/Shale Operators Cause US C+C Production to Increase?
Because of equipment, personnel and financial constraints, in my opinion it is going to take much
longer than most analysts expect for US operators to ramp up activity, even given a rising price
environment.
Except for the 2008 “V” shaped price decline (which bottomed out in December, 2008), and the corresponding
US rig count decline, the US (oil and gas) rig count has been around 1,800 to 2,000 in recent years.
Note that it took about five years to go from around 1,000 rigs in 2003 to around 2,000 rigs in 2008,
and it even took two years to go from around 1,000 rigs in 2009 to around 2,000 rigs in 2011.
And assuming a 15%/year rate of decline in existing US C+C production and assuming a 24%/year
rate of decline in existing US gas production, the US has to put on line around 1.5 million bpd of
new C+C production every year and around 17 BCF per day of new gas production every year, just to
offset declines from existing wells. Based on 2013 EIA data, the estimated annual volumetric loss
of production from existing US gas production exceeds the annual dry gas production of every country
in the world, except for the US and Russia.
Generally the idea of oil glut in the USA and simultaneously increasing imports is something from
Orwell novel 1984, where is was called doublespeak. If you’re an oil producer, you don’t pump oil unless
you have orders for it. If you pump oil without orders, then you need your own storage to store it.
You don’t ship any oil without getting paid for it. So oil glut theory claim that they are producers
which have oil stored instead of shipped to customers and nobody wants this oil. So it is rotting in
storage instead. And this bogus "theory" is propagated by MSM for more then 18 month now.
The best example of article that subscribes to this fallacy I found in NYT:
The world is awash in crude
oil, with enough extra produced last year to fuel all of Britain or Thailand. And the price of
oil will not stop falling until the glut shrinks.
The oil glut — the unsold crude that is piling up around the world — is a quandary and a source
of investor anxiety that once again rattled global markets on Friday.
As prices have dropped, the amount of excess production has been cut in half over the last six
months. About one million barrels of extra oil is now being dumped on the markets each day.
But that means the glut is still continuing to grow, and it could take years to work through
the crude that is being warehoused, poured into petroleum depots or loaded onto supertankers for
storage at sea.
The shakeout will be painful, taking an even bigger toll on companies, countries and investors.
I think the author never saw a real oil tanker and does not understand how much it costs to keep
oil in tanker for, say, a year. Regular lease of 200 barrel oil truck is around $4000 a month.
and at $40 the cost of 200 barrels is just $8000. So don't try this in your backyard ;-).
An ultra-large crude carrier, with a 3 million barrel capacity can well cost
around $40,000-60,000 a day. So in one day you burn 1000-1500 barrels (if we assume 40 pre barrel) of
your stored oil. That comes to 10-15% of stored oil in one year just in leasing costs (reuters.com)
As this is a skeptical page, one thing the creates strong doubts in MSM coverage of the current oil
prices slump is the idea of oil glut and Saudis supposed decision to "defend their share of the market"
by supposedly flooding the market with oil (in reality they were unable significantly raise their exports
(only by 0.3 Mb/d in 2016) and used predatory pricing since mid 2014 to slam the oil prices).
There are strong indications that that was the political decision make by Saudi elite to hurt
Iran after decision to lift sanctions was made by G7+Russia in mid 2014. It is due to this decision
the country started to dump their oil on the market at artificially low prices undercutting
other producers. They simply presented discount for each region they sell for their oil, essentially
putting a price on each barrel they sold.
But to cry about glut on oil in the country that imports more and more oil is something new to me.
This is something from Orwell novel 19884 and is called doublespeak. and that's was exactly the
situation with the USA in 2015. So MSM are deceiving the public. But why and what is the real situation,
if we can decipher it ?
The first thing to understand is that at a given stage of developing of drilling and other related
technologies there is such thing as minimal price of oil below which production can be continued only
at a loss. After all a well often costs $8 million, which need to be amortized for life of well. Which
in case of shale/tight oil is approximately five-six years with more half of oil extracted in the first
two years. The cost is much higher for non-conventional oil producers then for conventional producers.
Canadian tar sand production is even more expensive. Deep water drilling is somewhere in between conventional
and non-conventional oil.
There are different estimates, but most analysts agree that shale/tight oil producers need around
$70-$80 per barrel to be able to pay their debts and around $50-$60 to break even. Slightly less for
deep water oil ($40-$50). The picture below illustrated difference prices to produce different types
of oil ( see below) is reproduced from
What Me Worry About Peak Oil Art Berman, December 27, 2015 ):
This means that production of light oil from tight zones need the price of $70-80 per barrel to break
even. The same applies to extra heavy, deep water, and EOR projects. The implication seems to
be that most industry investments do require higher prices and 2010-2013 were gold age for this types
of oil as prices were close or above $100.
There were elements of glut in condensate and light oil before export restrictions were lifted because
the US refineries were tuned to different type of oil. some even rejected blended oil as output from
such oil in various fractions was different from "classic" oil to which refineries got used and that
was cutting their profits. But that's about it.
The key problem for shale/tight oil companies is that they have chance to stay afloat only at around
$70-$80 per barrel and most get to much debt in 2010-2013 trying to increase production to survive the
current price slump. In North America, 42 companies with $17 billion in debt filed bankruptcy in 2015,
the highest level since the financial crisis in 2008. Of these filings, 36 companies with $16.7 billion
in debt filed in the U.S.
Here is an old article
Crude oil is
surging (May 21, 2015) that asks important question "How we can have a glut of oil one week
and the next we don't "
Crude oil is having a big day. West Texas Intermediate crude oil rallied by more than 3% to cross
back above the $60 per barrel mark. On Wednesday, the Energy Information Administration said that
crude inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels last week.
It was the third straight week of declines in inventories, which have seen a huge swell in recent
months to the highest levels in at least 80 years. Earlier this week, we highlighted comments from
Morgan Stanley, noting that following the oil crash, drillers are now prioritizing profitability
over their output of barrels.
Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, was also higher, up by more than 2%. Here's a chart
showing the jump in WTI...
mad man
I can't understand, as everyone of us that are not greedy SOB's. How we can have a glut
of oil one week and the next we don't . I wouldn't leave this country for another , I'll
stand and fight for what we had in the past!
We have to rid this county of the #$%$S that think they are running it! Dem.'s or GOP's are
all #$%$'s! . This is not for the PEOPLE BY PEOPLE any more. WE ALL have to try and fix it .
H e
Crude is surging because the US dollar has no backbone anymore and losing it's world's reserve
currency status.
okeydokey
Market manipulation. Nothing more. As for Business Insider, this is a propaganda rag.
heybert17
I really enjoy reading all the expert opinions on oil. One says it will plummet, another
says it will surge, and another says it will stay steady. What are these people "experts" of?
It can't be oil or they would all say the exact same thing.
I agree with your post about market dynamics between customers having to pay through
their purchasing power in order to retire loans created by financial industry for oil companies.
But there are a few things that make this oil crash little bit “strange” to say at least:
OPEC (and mainly Saudis + GCC) did actually something by not doing anything and that is
refusing to cut their production. Well that is “man made” decision as Oman oil minister said
and not decision by invisible hand of market. I interpret this mainly as political decision
and not economical.
Second. Wall Street was pretty much shocked if not pissed by that Saudi decision. I
interpret that to be political reaction as well.
There is no worldwide collapse of demand that justify 65-70% fall of the oil price.
I am sorry but Wall Street is creating ninja loans for cars, student loans, mortgages from
the thin air with the same speed in the US. I would say that is political decision as well.
Worldwide collapse is not happening as of now either that would justify 65-70% drop of price.
Contraction is happening in Europe but very very gradually except in some marginal countries
like Greece, and war torn countries in ME and Africa. But these marginal countries did not
even have any big consumption to begin with.
Shale oil producers based on their balance sheet were bankrupt from Day 1. Why LTO
even got the loans to begin with? That is also political decision and not an economic. Why
are we waiting even a year after low prices for any major mergers, buyouts or bankruptcies?
I am sorry but 100% of LTO are bankrupt so why Wall Street is extending and pretending and
keeping them on a life support? Well it is again political decision.
So yes there are some market dynamics around this oil crash but there are a lot of political
dynamics as well.
To me too such a dramatic drop of oil prices looks like an engineered event, and is not
only the result of supply and demand discrepancies. I think coming online way too many projects
served a role, but not a decisive role. There was a political will to achieve that result.
One factor that might be in play ( it is NOT 100% reliable info) is that Saudis appropriated
all or large part of Iran quota during sanctions period.
So on July 14, 2014, when agreement about lifting sanctions was reached, Iran asked to Saudis
to compensate them for all this period. Saudis refused and started all this fun with declarations
that they will defend their market share by all means possible.
Obama was surprisingly strongly “pro-deal”: On Tuesday Obama promised to use his veto on any
domestic attempts to undermine the deal. “I am confident that this deal will meet the national
security needs of the United States and our allies, so I will veto any legislation that prevents
the successful implementation of this deal,” he said.”
Subsequently “sell as much as you can” regime for all OPEC members was instituted during the
last OPEC meeting — no countries quotas anymore. Which, in a way, is the dissolution of OPEC.
So this “conspiracy theory” presupposes that this was the way Saudis reacted to lifting Iran
sanctions, which threatened their share of oil market and also empowered their bitter regional
enemy due to high oil prices. And they probably were angry as hell about the US administration
duplicity — betrayal of the most reliable ally in the region, after the same trick with Mubarak.
Also it might well be that the agreement to lift sanctions from Iran was explicitly designed
as a perfect Trojan horse for dropping oil prices to ease pressure from G7 economies which were
in “secular stagnation” state. With Europe suffering from the cut from Russian market. In this
case this was a real masterpiece of “divide and conquer” strategy.
I don’t pay too much attention to the price because the price is just the consequence
of what buyers and sellers agree on. So there is no “engineering” in the classic sense of how
we interpret in the real life. What bothers me is the amount of new and unprofitable shale oil
that come to the market in the relatively short period of time. Well that is political engineering.
I thought for a while that this is all classic bubble of greed but then that did not make
sense either. We know that bankers like bubbles because they always make money on swings, either
going up or down. And that is ok with me; I accept that is how things work on this planet. But
they could make bubbles with tulips and make money too? It has been done before. Oil is little
bit different. You don’t piss oil on these swings when you are not making any money even on upswing.
So it is kind a troubling to see what is really going on. It looks to me that some breakdown
of communication happened between major oil producers and major bankers. But time will tell.
How they can claim that US tight oil will be produced in larger quantities if they predict stagnant oil prices and at those price
the US production is unprofitable.
So from now on it's all condensate, and very little heavy and medium oil.
I like BP propaganda: "The abundance of oil resources, and risk that large quantities of recoverable oil will never be extracted,
may prompt low-cost producers to use their comparative advantage to expand their market share in order to help ensure their resources
are produced." That's not only stupid but also gives up the intent...
Notable quotes:
"... In the ET scenario, global demand for liquid fuels – crude and condensates, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and other liquids – increases by 10 Mb/d, plateauing around 108 Mb/d in the 2030s. ..."
"... All of the demand growth comes from developing economies, driven by the burgeoning middle class in developing Asian economies. Consumption of liquid fuels within the OECD resumes its declining trend. ..."
"... The increase in liquid fuels supplies is set to be dominated by increases in NGLs and biofuels, with only limited growth in crude ..."
In the ET scenario, global demand for liquid fuels – crude and condensates, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and other liquids
– increases by 10 Mb/d, plateauing around 108 Mb/d in the 2030s.
All of the demand growth comes from developing economies, driven by the burgeoning middle class in developing Asian economies.
Consumption of liquid fuels within the OECD resumes its declining trend. The growth in demand is initially met from non-OPEC
producers, led by US tight oil. But as US tight oil production declines in the final decade of the Outlook, OPEC becomes the main
source of incremental supply. OPEC output increases by 4 Mb/d over the Outlook, with all of this growth concentrated in the 2030s.
Non-OPEC supply grows by 6 Mb/d, led by the US (5 Mb/d), Brazil (2 Mb/d) and Russia (1 Mb/d) offset by declines in higher-cost, mature
basins.
Consumption of liquid fuels grows over the next decade, before broadly plateauing in the 2030s
Demand for liquid fuels looks set to expand for a period before gradually plateauing as efficiency improvements in the transport
sector accelerate. In the ET scenario, consumption of liquid fuels increases by 10 Mb/d (from 98 Mb/d to 108 Mb/d), with the majority
of that growth happening over the next 10 years or so. The demand for liquid fuels continues to be dominated by the transport sector,
with its share of liquids consumption remaining around 55%. Transport demand for liquid fuels increases from 56 Mb/d to 61 Mb/d by
2040, with this expansion split between road (2 Mb/d) (divided broadly equally between cars, trucks, and 2/3 wheelers) and aviation/marine
(3 Mb/d). But the impetus from transport demand fades over the Outlook as the pace of vehicle efficiency improvements quicken and
alternative sources of energy penetrate the
transport system . In contrast, efficiency gains when using oil for non-combusted uses, especially as a feedstock in petrochemicals,
are more limited. As a result, the
non-combusted use of oil takes over as the largest source of demand growth over the Outlook, increasing by 7 Mb/d to 22 Mb/d
by 2040.
The outlook for oil demand is uncertain but looks set to play a major role in global energy out to 2040
Although the precise outlook is uncertain, the world looks set to consume significant amounts of oil (crude plus NGLs) for several
decades, requiring substantial investment. This year's Energy Outlook considers a range of scenarios for oil demand, with the timing
of the peak in demand varying from the next few years to beyond 2040. Despite these differences, the scenarios share two common features.
First, all the scenarios suggest that oil will continue to play a significant role in the global energy system in 2040, with the
level of oil demand in 2040 ranging from around 80 Mb/d to 130 Mb/d. In all scenarios, trillions of dollars of investment in oil
is needed Second, significant levels of investment are required for there to be sufficient supplies of oil to meet demand in
2040. If future investment was limited to developing existing fields and there was no investment in new production areas, global
production would decline at an average rate of around 4.5% p.a. (based on IEA's estimates), implying global oil supply would be only
around 35 Mb/d in 2040. Closing the gap between this supply profile and any of the demand scenarios in the Outlook would require
many trillions of dollars of investment over the next 20 years.
Growth in liquids supply is initially dominated by US tight oil, with OPEC production increasing only as US tight oil declines
Growth in global liquids production is dominated in the first part of the Outlook by US tight oil, with OPEC production gaining
in importance further out. In the ET scenario, total US liquids production accounts for the vast majority of the increase in global
supplies out to 2030, driven by US tight oil and NGLs. US tight oil increases by almost 6 Mb/d in the next 10 years, peaking at close
to 10.5 Mb/d in the late 2020s, before falling back to around 8.5 Mb/d by 2040. The strong growth in US tight oil reinforces the
US's position as the world's largest producer of liquid fuels. As US tight oil declines, this space is filled by OPEC production,
which more than accounts for the increase in liquid supplies in the final decade of the Outlook.
The increase in OPEC production is aided by OPEC members responding to the increasing abundance of global oil resources by reforming
their economies and reducing their dependency on oil, allowing them gradually to adopt a more competitive strategy of increasing
their market share. The speed and extent of this reform is a key uncertainty affecting the outlook for global oil markets (see pp
88-89).
The stalling in OPEC production during the first part of the Outlook causes OPEC's share of global liquids production to fall
to its lowest level since the late 1980s before recovering towards the end of the Outlook.
Low-cost producers: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq and Russia
The abundance of oil resources, and risk that large quantities of recoverable oil will never be extracted, may prompt low-cost
producers to use their comparative advantage to expand their market share in order to help ensure their resources are produced.
The extent to which low-cost producers can sustainably adopt such a 'higher production, lower price' strategy depends on their
progress in reforming their economies, reducing their dependence on oil revenues.
In the ET scenario, low-cost producers are assumed to make some progress in the second half of the Outlook, but the structure
of their economies still acts as a material constraint on their ability to exploit fully their low-cost barrels.
The alternative 'Greater reform' scenario assumes a faster pace of economic reform, allowing low-cost producers to increase their
market share. The extent to which low-cost producers can increase their market share depends on: the time needed to increase production
capacity; and on the ability of higher-cost producers to compete, by either reducing production costs or varying fiscal terms.
The lower price environment associated with this more competitive market structure boosts demand, with the consumption of oil
growing throughout the Outlook.
Growth in liquid fuels supplies is driven by NGLs and biofuels, with only limited growth in crude oil production
The increase in liquid fuels supplies is set to be dominated by increases in NGLs and biofuels, with only limited growth in
crude.
US reserves are estimated by some to about 50 billion barrels. Oil production, along with
reserve estimates, are growing in the US for one reason and one reason only, the advent of shale
oil. Reserve estimates before 2008 were based on conventional oil.
Onshore conventional oil production in the USA is in steep decline. Shale oil production is
intrinsically connected with financing and it produce along with oil a stream of junk bonds. At
some point investors might do not want them of the bubble start deflating. Then what.
Notable quotes:
"... Next three years for Shale Drillers may be a problem. I believe something like $150B in debt comes due between now and 2023. That's a lot of debt to roll over, as well as take on more debt to fund CapEx. ..."
"Dennis, with his calculation of a peak in 2025 + or – 3 years is about right."
That really depends on how much debt the Shale Drillers can take on, and presumes there is
not another global recession before 2025. Next three years for Shale Drillers may be a
problem. I believe something like $150B in debt comes due between now and 2023. That's a lot
of debt to roll over, as well as take on more debt to fund CapEx.
Without constant US Shale
production increases, world production peaks.
Oil climbed as Saudi Arabia was said to curtail some output from its Safaniyah offshore oil
field, the largest in the world.
Futures in New York rose as much as 2.2 percent Friday, pushing toward its biggest weekly
gain in a month. Saudi Arabia was said to trim supply from Safaniyah to repair a damaged power
cable, while Russia plans to accelerate the output cuts it agreed to with OPEC+.
... ... ...
Saudi Arabian Oil Co.'s Safaniyah field has the capacity to pump 1.2 million to 1.5 million
barrels of crude a day, and is a major component of the Arab Heavy grade. The cable was damaged
in an accident about two weeks ago and repairs are expected to be completed by early March,
people with knowledge of the matter said.
"... Global shortage of medium to heavy sour crude: Cuts from OPEC, Canada and potentially Venezuela have increased the price of medium and heavy crude oils. The Mars benchmark, a medium, sour crude produced in the Gulf of Mexico, has moved to above par with Light Louisiana Sweet. ..."
"... several medium to heavy sour crude grades produced in the Middle East are now trading at a premium to Brent. ..."
Global shortage of medium to heavy sour crude: Cuts from OPEC, Canada and potentially
Venezuela have increased the price of medium and heavy crude oils. The Mars benchmark, a
medium, sour crude produced in the Gulf of Mexico, has moved to above par with Light Louisiana
Sweet.
Western Canadian Select (WCS) prices in the Gulf Coast also rose above par with the West
Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmark at the end of January. WCS trades at a US$10/bbl discount to
WTI in Alberta, but now sells at a US$1.50 premium in Houston.
A similar effect is being seen globally, as several medium to heavy sour crude grades
produced in the Middle East are now trading at a premium to Brent.
"... I have been suspicious for some time that production numbers can be corrupted by fuzzy definitions. ..."
"... You can see how the definitions are going to blur and they're going to allow declaring oil production numbers to be anything that they want them to be. ..."
I have been suspicious for some time that production numbers can be corrupted by fuzzy
definitions. Iran is being sanctioned, but Iran shares that enormous gas field under the
Persian Gulf with Qatar. Gas production yields condensate and it yields NGLs.
High vapor pressure NGLs get labeled liquefied petroleum gas, and that is used for
transportation fuel in India. Pentane Plus is used or called something akin to natural
gasoline.
You can see how the definitions are going to blur and they're going to allow declaring oil
production numbers to be anything that they want them to be. Iran is using this to dodge
sanctions, or they did use it when condensate was not restricted. Don't recall if that
loophole was closed in the current sanctions. That would be a good thing to know.
The same thing can happen with shale. We hear all sorts of talk about how much gas is
being flared and how much gas is being captured, and you know perfectly well there has to be
condensate involved. There was an article a year or so ago about NGL capture in the Bakken,
but I don't recall any follow-up. It shouldn't take too much of a stretch on the part of
state regulators to find a way to count the high vapor pressure portion of NGL as oil.
You can see how the definitions are going to blur and they're going to allow declaring
oil production numbers to be anything that they want them to be.
Exactly. And this, in turn, allows Wall Street to suppress the price of "prime oil"
using fake production numbers, fake storage glut (which is essentially condensate glut)
and similar tricks. Please note that the US refineries consume mainly "prime oil" while
the USA mainly produces (and tries to export at a discount) "subprime oil."
Pretty polished and sophisticated racket. It might well be that shale oil companies are
partially financed from those Wall Street profits as nobody in serious mind expect those
loans to be ever repaid.
So OPEC cuts are the only weapon that OPEC countries have against this racket.
In any case, I think all those nice charts now need to be split into "prime oil" and
subprime oil parts and analyzed separately. In the current conditions, treating "heavy
oil" and condensate as a single commodity looks to me like pseudoscience.
"... The unplanned shutdown takes out another 1 million barrels a day of heavy oil from the market, Alex Schindelar, executive editor of content & strategy at Energy Intelligence Group tweeted Thursday, adding that the heavy crude oil market was already tight because of the OPEC output cuts and U.S. sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela. ..."
Saudi Aramco halts oil output at the world's largest offshore oilfield: report
Saudi Aramco halted oil output this week at Safaniyah, the world's largest offshore
oilfield, Energy Intelligence reported Thursday, citing sources familiar with the matter,
according to a tweet from Amena Bakr, senior correspondent at the news and research service
provider. Further information was only available through subscription-based Energy
Intelligence.
The potential impact on oil prices depends on how long output at the oilfield is down,
said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.
"The thinking is that the field produces heavy crude, and the world is short of that [type
of] oil."
The unplanned shutdown takes out another 1 million barrels a day of heavy oil from the
market, Alex Schindelar, executive editor of content & strategy at Energy Intelligence
Group tweeted Thursday, adding that the heavy crude oil market was already tight because of
the OPEC output cuts and U.S. sanctions on both Iran and Venezuela.
In electronic trading, March WTI oil CLH9, +1.06% was at $54.51 a barrel, after settling
at $54.41 on the New York mercantile Exchange.
Okay, you will have to read the article to see how Robert arrived at his conclusion. But
his conclusion is:
So, I have no good reason to doubt Saudi Arabia's official numbers. They probably do
have 270 billion barrels of proved oil reserves.
I find his logic horribly flawed. Robert compares Saudi's growing reserve estimates with
those of the USA.
First, the US Securities and Exchange Commission have the strictest oil reporting laws in
the world, or did have in 1982. Also, better technology has greatly improved reserve
estimates. And third, the advent of shale oil has dramatically added to US reserve
estimates.
Saudi has no laws that govern their reserve reporting estimates.
From Wikipedia, US Oil Reserves: Proven oil reserves in the United States were 36.4
billion barrels (5.79×109 m3) of crude oil as of the end of 2014, excluding the
Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The 2014 reserves represent the largest US proven reserves since
1972, and a 90% increase in proved reserves since 2008.
Robert says US reserves are 50 billion barrels. I don't know where he gets that number but
it really doesn't matter. Oil production, along with reserve estimates, are growing in the US
for one reason and one reason only, the advent of shale oil. Reserve estimates before 2008
were based on conventional oil. Onshore conventional oil production in the USA is in steep
decline.
Robert Rapier is brillant oil man, but a brilliant downstream oil man. Refineries are his
forte. He should know better than the shit he produced in that article.
100 percent of Saudi Arabia's reserves are based on conventional oil. Their true reserves
are very likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 70 billion barrels.
As Ron Patterson explained several times here, OPEC members cheat. They cut from the
elevated, unsustainable level, achieved specifically to accommodate cuts.
So "after cut" level is often not that different from a reasonable "normal," sustainable
production level in their current production conditions, plus some, related to previously
delayed maintenance, shutdowns.
Four years of capital underinvestment bite production both in OPEC and non-OPEC. So
talking about excess capacity is somewhat problematic and we now need to distinguish between
"prime oil" and "subprime oil."
Most people who talk about "excess capacity" are interested in lower oil price (the list
includes US and EU governments ) That's why condensate and other "subprime oil" is counted in
total oil output. Supply of "prime oil" now is stressed.
In other words, everything connected with oil is now politically charged. That means that
it is not wise to take IEA data and their forecasts at face value. It should be viewed as an
opinion of the agencies deeply (institutionally) interested in the low oil price.
You need the ability to read between the lines, much like readers of the press in the
USSR. And as several experts here do. You need the acute ability to cut through "official
bullsh*t".
And neutral expert opinion is very difficult to come by. That's why this blog has so much
value.
Heads up. Some scroll upwards there is a quoted article from oilprice.com.
The writer is Nawar Alsaadi. I suspect we fell victim of presumption. He has an Arabic
sounding name, and that leads us to suspect he knows something about oil.
Look into this guy. There's nothing ugly or horrible about his background, but there is
nothing in it that shouts out expert. He is a writer. Including publishing fiction.
He's also "with" some investment firm. Turns out he's president and CEO of the firm and
conveniently an employee count is not easily found.
I'm curious – does anybody know, by the data trends, which OPEC country is likely to
run so low on oil that they become a net importer, next? I do understand this event may take
some time to occur.
If you take a look at PXD announcements, I reach the conclusion that Permian is slowing. Like
Dennis Coyne, I look at growth after fourth quarter 2018. Oil production in fourth quarter is
199.2 Kilo barrels/day. The guidance for 2019 is between 203 to 213 Kilo barrels/day. PXD is
spending 300 MM dollars for gas processing and water treatment infrastructure.
OPEC says they have 1214.21 billion barrels of proven reserves. And they say non-OPEC has
268.56 billion barrels of proven reserves. Average OPEC C+C production, over the last four
years, has been 12.78 billion barrels per year according to the EIA. The EIA says the average
non-OPEC C+C production over the last four years has been 16.8 billion barrels per year.
Okay, here is the killer. If those numbers are correct then the average non-OPEC nation
has an R/P ratio of 16 while the average OPEC nation has an R/P ratio of 95. If you think
those R/P ratio numbers are even remotely correct then I have a bridge I would like to sell
you.
I agree that the R/P numbers seem very suspicious. But if this is true then OPEC reserves
are closer to 400-500 billion barrels not 1.2 trillion barrels. That would give us another
trillion barrels at best to consume in the future in addition to the 1.3 trillion already
consumed. This brings the URR to 2.2-2.5 trillion barrels at best including extra heavy. What
do you think of the URR of 3.1 trillion barrels that is commonly assumed? Also canadian tar
sands and venezuelan heavy oil have very low EROI which brings down the extractable oil
reserves further. Do you think that is taken into account?
...OPEC+ production
cuts could erase the supply surplus in the near future. Saudi Arabia has promised to cut
more than required, lowering output in January by 350,000 bpd while also promising another
500,000 bpd cut by March.
"[C]ore-OPEC producers are adopting a 'shock and awe' strategy and exceeding their cut
commitment," Goldman Sachs said in a note, predicting that Brent oil prices will average $67.50
per barrel in the second quarter.
To accommodate steadily rising barrels of light oil, OPEC and its non-OPEC partners have
backed out their own supplies in order to prevent a crash in prices. But many OPEC members
produce medium and heavier blends.
The quantity of global supply may not be vastly different, but the quality of the crude
slate has changed dramatically. Refiners cannot easily swap out one type for another. The
upshot is that the world is seeing a glut of light oil at a time when supply of medium and
heavier barrels are relatively tight.
... ... ...
U.S. sanctions against Venezuela and Iran are magnifying this trend, knocking even more
medium and heavier barrels off of the market.
... ... ...
The IEA said that these quality differences could cause some problems this year. "In
quantity terms, in 2019 the US alone will grow its crude oil production by more than
Venezuela's current output," the agency wrote in its Oil Market Report published Wednesday. "In
quality terms, it is more complicated. Quality matters."
IEA is one-half EU marketing agency with the explisit goal to keep oil price low, and one
half a research organization. In different reports one role can be prevalent.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimates that margins for U.S. Gulf Coast
refiners have declined to the lowest levels since late 2014, based on recent price trends in
certain grades of crude oil and petroleum products. https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/
Comment on Yahoo are absolutly idiotic. I have dount only a couple more or less reasonable
comment in the first 48. This level of incompetence and brainwashing is simply amazing.
The "call" on OPEC crude is now forecast at 30.7 million bpd in 2019, down from the IEA's
last estimate of 31.6 million bpd in January.
U.S. sanctions on Iran and Venezuela have choked off supply of the heavier, more sour crude
that tends to yield larger volumes of higher-value distillates, as opposed to gasoline. The
move has created disruption for some refiners, but has not led to a dramatic increase in the
oil price in 2019.
"In terms of crude oil quantity, markets may be able to adjust after initial logistical
dislocations (from Venezuela sanctions)", the Paris-based IEA said.
"Stocks in most markets are currently ample and ... there is more spare production capacity
available."
Venezuela's production has almost halved in two years to 1.17 million bpd, as an economic
crisis decimated its energy industry and U.S. sanctions have now crippled its exports.
Brent crude futures have risen 20 percent in 2019 to around $63 a barrel, but most of that
increase took place in early January. The price has largely plateaued since then, in spite of
the subsequent imposition of U.S. sanctions.
"Oil prices have not increased alarmingly because the market is still working off the
surpluses built up in the second half of 2018," the IEA said.
"In quantity terms, in 2019, the U.S. alone will grow its crude oil production by more than
Venezuela's current output. In quality terms, it is more complicated. Quality
matters."
dlider909, 7 hours ago Story will change in 30 days.
Robert, 7 hours ago ... ... ...
What this report fails to do is to pay the appropriate homage to American oilfield
roughnecks...
ralf
7 hours ago Nonsense. I see military action against Venezuela soon, just because of
our thirst for oil.
Talk about shale is like talk about Moon conquests, not supported by hard facts.
Saudi Arabia planning to drop March crude output by more than a half a million barrels per
day below its initial pledge.
... ... ...
OPEC said on Tuesday it had reduced oil production almost 800,000 bpd in January to 30.81
million bpd under its voluntary global supply pact.
Saudi Arabia Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih told the Financial Times that the kingdom would
reduce cut production to about 9.8 million bpd in March to bolster oil prices.
"... they expect maybe 200 kb/d higher output in the GOM and my interpretation of George Kaplan's and SouthLaGeo's recent comments is that flat or possibly declining GOM output is a more likely scenario. ..."
The EIA's STEO released today. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/
They forecast US C+C production to increase +0.79 million barrels per day during 2019
From Dec 2018 11.93 million barrels per day
To Dec 2019 12.72 million barrels per day
The EIA's forecast might not be too far off, but I think they expect maybe 200 kb/d
higher output in the GOM and my interpretation of George Kaplan's and SouthLaGeo's recent
comments is that flat or possibly declining GOM output is a more likely scenario.
Venezuela production should take a larger drop in February. Today Interim President
Guaidó announced Feb 23 would be the day a big push would be made to push humanitarian
aid columns into Venezuela. Collection points for food and medicine are now available in
Colombia and Brazil, and others are being prepared.
Maduro moved 700 special forces (FAES) which are usually kept serving as death squads in
large cities, to cover the bridges between Ureña in Venezuela and Cucuta in Colombia,
with orders to fire on the humanitarian relief trucks. Guaidó responded the border was
plenty long and Maduro lacked enough FAES and Cubans to stop the relief from crossing the
border. He also pointed out that if Maduro had to use death squads to patrol the border it
meant he didn't trust the Army, the National Guard or the National Police, so he asked for
volunteers inside Venezuela to help overcome Maduro's thugs with sheer numbers.
Today it became very common to see an individual scream "Maduro!" and the crowd respond "f
k you!". It's the way people pass the time at metro stations and while waiting in line. And
the police seem to have abandoned the usurper, because they seldom do anything about it.
Middle East oil benchmarks Dubai and DME Oman have nudged above prices for Brent crude, an
unusual move as U.S. sanctions on Venezuela and Iran along with output cuts by OPEC tighten
supply of medium to heavy oil, traders and analysts said.
Heavier grades, mainly produced in the Middle East, Canada and Latin America, typically have
a high sulphur content and are usually cheaper than Brent, the benchmark for lighter oil in the
Atlantic Basin.
"... Last year, oil production dropped by 37% compared with 2017. So, Maduro has been struggling to pay back the loans and last year, Sechin had to fly to Caracas to negotiate with the Venezuelan leader over delayed oil supplies. ..."
As of 2017, Russia controlled 13% of Venezuela's crude exports, Reuters
reported . According to some experts, Rosneft has been taking advantage of Venezuela's
difficulties to secure deals which will be profitable in the long term.
... ... ...
The beleaguered country's economy is on the verge of collapse and the oil sector, which
accounts for over 90% of national export revenues, has not been spared. Last year, oil
production dropped by 37% compared with 2017. So, Maduro has been struggling to pay back the
loans and last year, Sechin had to fly to Caracas to negotiate with the Venezuelan leader over
delayed oil supplies.
Russia's concern about a collapse in Venezuela's economy is tangible. A delegation of
high-ranking Russian officials flew to Caracas in October to advise the government on how to
overcome the crisis. With the country in a state of turmoil, Russia's Deputy Minister of
Finance Sergei Storchak
said he expects Venezuela to struggle to repay its debt, and the next $100 million tranche
is due next month.
Nations should explore better system to break US hegemony
"The US dollar is used for the international oil and gas trade and a wide part of global
trade. This gives the US an exorbitant privilege to sanction countries it opposes.
..
The latest sanctions on Venezuela's state-owned oil company aim to cut off source of foreign
currency of Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro's government and eventually force him to step
down.
..
A new mechanism should be devised to thwart such a vicious circle"
My question is really about those at the top of the power pyramid (those few hundred
families who own the controling share of the wealth of the world) -- those who position
idiots like Bolton to do their work, do they comprehend 'exergy' decline ?
If we can, then can they not? I agree with Parenti that they are not
'somnambulists'. They are strategists looking out for their own interests, and that means
scrutinising trends in political movements, culture, technology and, well, just about
everything. I find it hard, the idea that all these people -- people who have seen their
businesses shaped by resource discovery, exploitation and then depletion, have no firm grasp
on the realities of dwindling returns on energy.
The models were drawn up 47 years ago. I think that some of them at least, do
understand that economic growth is coming to a halt, and have understood for decades. If true
then they are planning that transition in their favour.
These hard to swallow facts about oil are still on the far fringes of any political
conversation. The neoliberal cultists are deaf to them for obvious reasons; the socialist
idealists believe that a 'New Deal' can lead us off the death train, but mostly ignore the
intractable relationship between energy decline and financial problems; even the anarchists
want their work free utopia run by robots and AI but stop short of asking whether solar
panels and wind turbines can actually provide the power for all that tech. It's the news that
nobody wants to think about, but which they will be forced to thinking about in the very near
future.
The Twitter feed 'Limits to Growth' has less than 800 followers (excellent though it
is).
I do not want to get into the mind of the Walrus of Death Bolton! I do not want to know
what he does, as he does. But at lower levels of government, and corporatism, there is an
awareness of surplus energy economics. And as Nafeez has also pointed out, the military (the
Pentagon) are taking an interest. And though it could rapidly change, who really appreciates
the nuances of EROEI? I'm guessing at less than a single percent of all populations? And how
many include its effects in a integrated political sense?
Its appreciation is sporadic: ranging from tech-utopia hopium to a defeated fatalism of
the inevitability of collapse. Unless and until people want to face the harshness of the
reality that capitalism has created: we are going to be involved in a marginal analysis.
There are very few people who have realised that capitalism is long dead.
Dr Tim Morgan estimates that world capitalism has conservatively had $140tn in stimulus
since 2008 -- without stimulating anything or reviving it at all. In fact, that amounts to
the greatest robbery in history -- the theft of the future. Inasmuch as they can, those
unrepayable debts -- transferred to inflate the parasitic assets of capitalists -- will be
socialised. Except they cannot be. Not without surplus energy.
Brexit, gilets jaunes, Venezuela, unending crises in MENA, China's economic slowdown, etc
-- all linked by EROEI.
It is a common socio-politico-economic energy nexus -- but linked together by whom? And
the emergent surplus energy-mind-environmental ecology nexus? All the information is
available. The formation of a new political manifesto started in the 1960s with the New Left
but it seems to have been in stasis since. Perhaps this might stimulate the conversation.
According to Nate Hagens: there is 4.5 years of human muscle power leveraged by each
barrel of oil. We are all going to be working for a very long time to pay back the debts
the possessing classes have built up for us -- with absolutely no marginal utility for
ourselves.
We are subsidising our own voluntary slavery unless we develop an emergent ecosocialist
and ecosophical alternative to carbon capitalism. We cannot expect paleoconservative carbon
relics like Bolton -- or anyone else -- to do it for us. The current political landscape is
dominated by a hierarchical, vested interest, carbon aristocracy. We can't expect that to
change for our benefit any time ever. Expect the opposite.
Graeber has a point, though. We could already have a post-scarcity, post-production society
but for the egregious maldistribution of resources and employment. Andre Gorz said as much 50
years ago (Critique of Economic Reason). Why do we organise around production: it makes no
sense but for the relations of production are, and remain, the relations of hierarchical
rule. So long as we assign value to a human life on the basis of meritocratic productivity --
we will have dehumanisation, marginalisation, and subjugation (haves and have nots). So why
not organisation around care, freedom and play?
Such a solution would require the transversalistion of society and not-full-employment: so
that no part of the system is subordinate, and no part is privileged. All systems and
sub-ordinate (care) systems would be co-equal, of corresponding value and worth. So, without
invoking EROEI, that would go a long way to solve our exergy, waste, pollution, and
inequality problems. It is the profligate, unproductive superstructure: supporting rentier,
surplus energy accumulating, profit-seeking suprasocieties -- that squanders our excess
energy and puts expansive spatio-temporal pressures on already stretched biophysical
ecological systems that engenders potential collapse. It is their -- the possessing classes
-- assets that are being inflated, at our environmental expense. When it comes to
survivability, we cannot afford a parasitic globalised superstructure draining the host --
the ecologically productive base. Without the over-accumulation, overconsumption, and wastage
(the accursed share) associated with the superstructure of the advanced economies -- and
their cultural, credit, military imperialisms I expect we could live quite well. Without the
pressures of globalised transportation networks, and unnecessary military budgets -- the
pressure on oil is minimised. It could be used for the 1001 other uses it has, rather than
fuelling Saudi Eurofighters bombing Yemeni schoolchildren, for instance. The surplus energy
could be used to educate, clothe and feed them instead. That would be a better use of
resources, for sure.
If we took stock of what we really have, and what we really are -- a form of spiritual
neo-self-sufficiency, augmented and extended into co-mutual care and freedom valorising
ecologies we wouldn't need to chase the perceived loss all over the globe, killing everything
that moves. The solutions are not hard, they are normative, once we are shocked out of this
awful near-life trance state of separationism. Thanks for the link.
It seems to me that there are two parallel arguments going on.
One is about social organisation, attitudes towards and policies determining work, money,
paid employment, technological development and the distribution of weath.
The other is fundamentally based on the laws of thermodynamics and concerns resource limits,
energy surpluses, the role of 'stored sunlight' in producing things and doing work for each
other, pollution and projections about these into the future.
I am surprised that Graeber (just as an example) seems to basically ignore the second of
these even though he clearly is an incisive thinker and makes good points about the first. It
is taken as a given that, theoretically at least, human civilisation could re-organise around
a new ethic, transform the economy into a 'caring economy', re-structure money, government
and do away with militarism. In terms of what to do now, as an individual, what choices to
make, it is disconcerting to me when talk of these ideals seems to ignore those latter
questions about overshoot.
I wonder if the egalitarian nature of much of indiginous North American society was
inescapably bound with the realities of a low population density, low technology,
intimate relationship with the natural world and a culture completely steeped in reverence
for Mother Earth.
The talk I hear from Bastani or Graeber along the lines of 'we could be flying around in jet
packs on the moon, if only society was organised sensibly' rings hollow to me.
Welcome to my world! Apart from as a managerial tool, systems thinking has yet to catch on
in the wider population. According to reductive materialism: there are two unlinked
arguments. According to Dynamic Systems Theory (DST) there is only one integrated argument --
with two inter-connected correlative aspects. We can only organise around what we can
energetically afford. Consequently, we cannot organise around what we cannot afford -- that
is, global industrialised production with a supervenient elitist superstructure.
Let's face it : ethical arguments carry little weight against organisation around
hierarchical rule. The current talk of an ethical capitalism -- in mixed economies with
'commons' elements -- is an appeasement. and distractional to the gathering and ineluctable
reality.
The current (2012) EROI for the UK is 6.2:1 -- barely above the 'energy cliff' of 5:1. The
GDP 'growth' and bullshit jobs are funded by monetised debt (we borrow around £5 to
make every £1 -- from Tim Morgan's SEEDS). From the Earth Overshoot Day website: the UK
is in economic overshoot from May 8th onward.
These are indicators that we will not be "flying jetpacks on the moon": even if we
reorganise. Everyone, and I mean everyone, will have to make do with less. A lot less.
Everything would have to be localised and sustainable. Production would be minimised, and not
at all full. Two major systems of production -- food (agroecology) and energy -- would have
to be sustainable and self-sovereign. And financialisation and the rentier, service economy?
Now you can see why no one, not even Dave the crypto-anarchist, is talking about reality.
Elitism, establishment and entitlement do not figure in an equitable future. We can't afford
it, energetically or ethically.
So when will the debate move on? Not any time the populace is bought into ideational
deferred prosperity. All the time that EROEI is ignored as the fundamental concept governing
dwindling prosperity -- no one, and I mean no one, will be talking about a minimal surplus
energy future. The magic realism is that the economic affordances of cheap oil (unsustainably
mimicked by debt-funding) will return sometime, somehow (the technocratic superfix). The
aporia is that the longer the delay, the less surplus energy we will have available to
utilise. Something like the Green New Deal -- that has been proposed for around two decades
now -- may give us some quality of life to sustain. Pseudo-talk of a Customs Union, 'clean'
coal, and nuclear power, will not.
An integrated reality -- along the model of Guattari's 'Three Ecologies' -- of mind,
economy, and environment is well, we are not alone, but we are ahead of the curve. The other
cultural aporia is that we need to implement such vision now. Actually, about thirty years
ago but let's not get depressive!
We are going to need that cooperative organisation around care and freedom just to get
through the coming century.
As mentioned elsewhere here, Venezualan oil deposits are not all that the hype cracks them up
to be. They are mostly oil sands that produce little in the way of net energy gain after the
lengthy process of extraction.The Venezuala drama is about the empire crushing democracy
(i.e. socialism), not oil. [not that this detracts from Kit's essential point in the
article].
The Left (as well as the Right), by and large have not come to terms with the realities of
the decline in net surplus energy that is unfolding around the world and driving the
political changes that we see. So they still view geopolitics in terms of the oil economy of
pre-2008.
The productive economies of Europe are falling apart (check Steve Keen's latest on Max and
Stacy -- although even i he doesn't delve into the energy decline aspect).
The carbon density of the global economy has not changed in the 27 years since the founding
of the UNFCCC.
The Peak Oil phenomenon was oversimplified, misrepresented and misunderstood as a simple
turning point in overall oil production. In truth it was a turning point in energy
surplus.
I predict that by the end of this or next year, everyone will be talking about ERoEI.
Everyone will realise that there is no way out of this predicament. Maybe there are ways to
lessen the catastrophe, but no way to avert it. This will change the conversation, and even
change what 'politics' means (i.e. you cannot campaign on a 'new start' or a 'better,
brighter future' if everyone knows that that physically cannot happen).
Everyone will understand that their civilisation is collapsing.
Does Bolton understand this?
If you were referring to my earlier comments about Venezuelan extra heavy crude: it's
still massively about the oil. The current carbon capitalist world system does not understand
surplus energy or EROEI, as it is so fixated on maximal short term returns for shareholders.
It can't comprehend that their entire business model is unsustainable and self cannibalising.
Which is bad for us: because carbon net-energy (exergy) economics it is foundational to all
civilisation. The ignorance of it and subsequent environmental and social convergence crises
threatens the systemic failure of our entire civilisation. The Venezuelan crisis affects us
all: and is symptomatic of a decline in cheap oil due to rapidly falling EROEI.
I can't find the EROEI specifically for Venezuelan heavy oil: but it is only slightly more
viscous than bitumen -- which has an EROEI of 3:1. Let's call it 4:1: the same as other tight
oils and shale. Anything less than 5:1 is more or less an energy sink: with virtually no net
energy left for society. The minimum EROEI for societal needs is 11:1. Does Bolton understand
this? Francis hit the nail on the head there.
Do any of our leaders? No. If they did, a transition to decentralisation would be well
under way. Globalised supply chains are systemically threatened and fragile. A globalised
economy is spectacularly vulnerable. Especially a debt-ridden one. Which way are our leaders
trying to take us? At what point will humanity realise we are following clueless Pied Pipers
off the Seneca Cliff -- into globalised energy oblivion?
The rapid investment -- not in a post-carbon transition -- but in increased
militarisation, and resource and market driven aggressive foreign intervention policies
reveal the mindset of insanity. As people come to understand the energy basis of the world
crisis: the fact of permanent austerity and increased pauperisation looms large. What will
the outcome be when an armed nuclear madhouse becomes increasingly protectionsist of their
dwindling share? Too alarmist, perhaps? Let's play pretend that we can plant a few trees and
captive breed a few rhinos and it will all be fine. BAU?
The world runs on cheap oil: our socio-politico-economic expectations of progress depend
on it. Which means that the modern human mind is, in effect, a thought-process predicated on
cheap oil. Oleum ergo sum? Apart from the Middle East: we are already past the point where
oil is a liability, not a viability. Debt funding its extraction, selling below the cost of
production -- both assume the continual expansion of global GDP. Oil is a highly subsidised
-- with our surplus socialisation capital -- negative asset. We foot the bill. A bill that
EROEI predicts will keep on rising. At what point do we realise this? Or do we live in hopium
of a return to historical prosperity? Or hang on the every word of the populist magic realism
demagogue who promises a future social utopia?
EROEI = Energy Returned on Energy Invested (also known as EROI = Energy Return on Investment)
EROEI refers to the amount of usable energy that can be extracted from a resource compared
to the amount of energy (usually considered to come from the same resource) used to extract
it. It's calculated by dividing the amount of energy obtained from a source by the amount of
energy needed to get it out.
An EROEI of 1:1 means that the amount of usable energy that a resource generates is the
same as the amount of energy that went into getting it out. A resource with an EROEI of 1:1
or anything less isn't considered a viable resource if it delivers the same or less energy
than what was invested in it. A viable resource is one with an EROEI of at least 3:1.
The concept of EROEI assumes that the energy needed to get more energy out of a resource
is the same as the extracted energy ie you need oil to extract oil or you need electricity to
extract electricity. In real life, you often need another source of energy to extract energy
eg in some countries, to extract electricity, you need to burn coal, and in other countries,
to extract electricity you need to build dams on rivers. So comparing the EROEI of
electricity extraction across different countries will be difficult because you have to
consider how and where they're generating electricity and factor in the opportunity costs
involved (that is, what the coal or the water or other energy source -- like solar or wind
energy -- could have been used for instead of electricity generation).
That is probably why EROEI is used mainly in the context of oil or natural gas
extraction.
DUBAI/LONDON (Reuters) - Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, cut its crude output in
January by about 400,000 barrels per day (bpd), two OPEC sources said, as the kingdom follows
through on its pledge to reduce production to prevent a supply glut.
Riyadh told OPEC that the kingdom pumped 10.24 million bpd in January, the sources said.
That's down from 10.643 million bpd in December, representing a cut that was 70,000 bpd deeper
than targeted under the OPEC-led pact to balance the market and support prices.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other non-OPEC producers -
an alliance known as OPEC+ - agreed in December to reduce supply by 1.2 million bpd from Jan.
1.
The agreement stipulated that Saudi Arabia should cut output to 10.311 million bpd, but
energy minister Khalid al-Falih has said it will exceed the required reduction to demonstrate
its commitment.
Crude shipments to the U.S. from OPEC and its partners fell to 1.41 million barrels a day in
January, the lowest in five years, according to data from cargo-tracking and intelligence
company Kpler. Shrinking Iraqi imports and deep output cuts by Saudi Arabia fueled the
decline
So Trump imposed sanction on the USA too. Of he hopes that Strategic petroleum reserve will
compensate for shortages... If Venezuela color revolution develops into Libya scenario, which
they could oil output can be suppressed for years to come. In other words Trump really has
chances to became Republican Obama.
Moreover, not only are the effects of the sanctions more far-reaching, but also more
immediate than first thought. At first, the U.S. seemed to exempt shipments that were underway,
outlining a sort of phased approach that would allow a handful of American refiners to
gradually unwind their oil purchase from Venezuela. The phased approach, which was supposed to
be extended into April, would help "to minimize any immediate disruptions," U.S. Secretary of
Treasury Steven Mnuchin said in late January.
But that now does not appear to be what is unfolding. PDVSA has demanded upfront payment,
likely because it fears not being paid at all or having the revenues steered to the opposition.
Indeed, the U.S. effort to steer PDVSA and its revenues into the hands of the U.S.-backed
opposition leader Juan Gauidó appears to be a decisive turning point.
Oil tankers linked to Chevron, Lukoil and Respsol are delayed, redirected or sitting
offshore because of lack of payment. The WSJ says that several of those tankers had recently
sent oil to Corpus Christi, Texas, but are now anchored off the coast of Maracaibo sitting
idle. "This is an absolute disaster," Luis Hernández, a Venezuelan oil union leader,
told the WSJ. "There's almost no way to move the oil."
Unable to sell any oil, Maduro's regime could quickly run out of cash. The result could be a
humanitarian catastrophe, a merciless and destructive objective that the Trump administration
seems to have in mind. The U.S. government is essentially betting that by driving the country
into the ground, the military and the people will turn on Maduro. It could yet turn out that
way, but it could also deepen the misery and exact an unspeakable toll on the Venezuelan
population, the very people the Trump administration says it is trying to help.
In the meantime, oil exports are likely heading into a freefall. The WSJ says that labor
problems, including "mass defections of workers" are accelerating declines. PDVSA could soon
run out of refined fuel.
Officials with knowledge of the situation told the WSJ that Venezuela's oil production has
likely already fallen well below 1 million barrels per day (mb/d), down more than 10 percent
– at least – from December levels.
Wood Mackenzie estimates that production
probably stands a little bit higher at about 1.1 mb/d, but that it could soon fall to 900,000
bpd.
... ... ...
That would push up oil prices significantly. But the U.S. government has blown past the
point of no return, leaving it with no other options except to escalate. That means that
Venezuela is set to lose a lot more oil than analysts thought only two weeks ago .
Will loss of Vezuellian oil exports to the USA be compensated from the USA strategic
reserve? Who will compensate this oil? Canada ? Or Trump administration decoded that temporary rise of oil prices is OK in
view of more strategic goal ?
Notable quotes:
"... As for Venezuela's over-reliance on oil exports to support its economy, this is the result of past government policies before Chavez came to power. The US treated Venezuela as a petrol station and pro-US governments in the country turned it into a petrol station. ..."
Bart Hansen@20 - Oil production costs are complex, secret and mostly lies. With that caveat,
Venezuela was thought to have about $10 - $15 production costs on average. That includes
their light and medium crude, and zero investment in repair of their distribution networks.
Well over half of Venezuela's reserves are Orinco extra-heavy, sour crude. Essentially tar
sands, but buried 500m - 1500m deep that require solvent or steam extraction. So (guess)
maybe $30-range/bbl for production. Those tar sand oils produced are so heavy that they need
pre-processing and dilution before they can be refined or exported. Naphtha or other refined
products are used as dilutent and cost maybe $55/bbl today, but were around $75/bbl last
October.
U.S. refineries were pretty much the only ones paying cash for their 500,000 b/d of
Venezuelan crude. Trump's sanctions not only ban those imports, but also ban the 120,000 b/d
of naphtha and other dilutents we sold them.
Interesting to note that part of Trump's beat-down of the Venezuela little people is a ban
on the 120,000 b/d of dilutent last week. That will completely shut down their exports. They
could find another source of naphtha, but that source will be looking for $6.6 million a day
hard cash for it.
Maduro needs to sell Venezuela's gold to buy naphtha to export oil for ANY revenue. The
$2.5 billion the Bank of England can't find and won't deliver is meant to hasten the food
riots and CIA-orchestrated coup. But Mercy Corps is setting up concentration camps on the
Colombian border and we're delivering food aid, so the U.S. is really the hero, here. God
bless America! Obey, or die.
Red Ryder @ 30: Venezuela's economy is as much ruined by US economic sanctions against the
country and (at US behest) Saudi Arabia's flooding of the global oil market that sent oil
prices down in order to crash the economies of other countries like Iran and Russia that were
presumed to be dependent on oil exports, as by mismanagement or poor leadership on Chavez or
Maduro's part.
On top of that, major food importers and producers (several of which are owned by
companies or individuals hostile to Chavez and Maduro) have been withholding food from
supermarkets to manipulate prices and goad the public into demonstrating against the
government.
As for Venezuela's over-reliance on oil exports to support its economy, this is the
result of past government policies before Chavez came to power. The US treated Venezuela as a
petrol station and pro-US governments in the country turned it into a petrol
station.
Chavez did try to encourage local food production and carried out some land redistribution
to achieve this. But his efforts did not succeed because importing food was cheaper than
producing it locally and farm-workers apparently preferred jobs in the oil industry that paid
better and were more secure.
I do not know how the collectives were organised, whether they had some independent
decision-making abilities or not, or whether they were organised from top down rather than
bottom up, so I can't say whether their organisational structures and the internal culture
those encouraged worked against them.
The bank expects oil supply to tighten in the first quarter as top exporter Saudi Arabia
cuts production , but Citi's Ed Morse also forecasts a soft spot for demand in the opening
months of 2019. Further complicating matters are a series of geopolitical and market dramas
that will play out through the beginning of May.
This follows a three-month period that saw oil prices spike to nearly four-year highs as the
market braced for U.S. sanctions on Iran. Prices then tumbled more then 40 percent to 18-month
lows, blowing up long-held trading strategies and forcing drillers to rethink their 2019
budgets.
"The volatility every year is a good $20 to $25 a barrel between low and high," Morse said.
"December was kind of the nightmare for the world where the swings were $50 at a low, $86 at a
high and $68 for the average of Brent."
... ... ...
Citi expects Brent crude to continue rising into the mid-$60 range and hit $70 before year
end. That will be enough to keep in play another wild card: surging U.S. oil production.
Feb 2, 2019 The REAL Reason The U.S. Wants Regime Change in Venezuela. The U.S. and its
allies have decided to throw their weight behind yet another coup attempt in Venezuela. As
usual, they claim that their objectives are democracy and freedom. Nothing could be farther
from the truth.
Feb 3, 2019 Venezuela's Oil Enough for World's 30 Year Energy Needs
The long bankrupt fiat financial system is pushing the Deep State to target Venezuela for
the latter's natural resources that dwarfs that of its satellite province Saudi Arabia.
Well people you need to explore this move to take over Venezuela in the context of what
having that oil control will mean for the US and Israel in the increasingly likely event we
blow up Iran and up end the ME for Israel.
So what could happen that might make control of oil rich Venezuela necessary? Why has
Venezuela become a Bolton and Abrams project? Why is Netanyahu putting himself into the
Venezuela crisis ?
We, otoh, would need all the oil we could get if we blew up the ME, specifically Iran,
figuratively or literally. The US signed a MOU with Israel in 1973 obligating us to supply
Israel with oil ( and ship it to them) if they couldn't secure any for themselves.
"... Production is likely to head south, so nobody will get it. Perfect storm. Iran sanctions, Saudis are going to cut to 10.1 instead of 10.3, Venezuela production to plummet, and US oil is on a hiatus. What a glut. ..."
Production is likely to head south, so nobody will get it. Perfect storm. Iran
sanctions, Saudis are going to cut to 10.1 instead of 10.3, Venezuela production to plummet,
and US oil is on a hiatus. What a glut.
Oil prices are on track for strong gains this week, and the price increases are not only the result of
the crisis in Venezuela.
The oil market received a boost from the US Federal Reserve this week, which signaled on Wednesday
that it would essentially suspend its plans to hike interest rates this year. Fed chairman Jerome
Powell said that economic growth remained
"solid"
but that the central bank had
"the
luxury of patience"
when deciding on further rate hikes. That is a big change from prior
guidance, in which the Fed very clearly outlined multiple rate increases in 2019.
"The case for
raising rates has weakened somewhat,"
Powell said. Slowing growth in China and Europe, a
weakening housing market, tepid inflation – these are not exactly the ingredients that call for
aggressive rate tightening.
The announcement contributed to strong gains for oil prices on Wednesday and Thursday. At the time
of this writing, WTI was trading in the mid-$50s, with Brent above $62 per barrel, both close to
two-month highs.
A more dovish position from the Fed boosts the bullish case for oil in two ways. First,
lower-than-expected interest rates will provide a jolt to the economy. Stock markets rose on the news.
But second, a softer rate outlook also undercuts the US dollar a bit. A weaker dollar stokes crude oil
demand in the rest of the world, and historically the dollar has had an inverse relationship with oil
prices.
Meanwhile, the oil market received a more direct boost this week on news that Saudi Arabia slashed
shipments to the United States. The US has the most transparent and up-to-date data on the oil market,
which include weekly releases on production levels, imports and exports, and inventories. That kind of
visibility is not readily available in most places around the world.
As a result, Saudi Arabia appears to be deliberately targeting that data. By reducing shipments to
the US specifically, Riyadh can help create the appearance of a tightening oil market. Saudi shipments
to the US dropped by 528,000 bpd last week to just 442,000 bpd, the lowest weekly total in more than
two years.
More to the point, OPEC's production declined by 890,000 bpd in January, according to a
Reuters
survey, the largest monthly decline since early 2017 (the month that the first round of
OPEC+ production cuts took effect). Iraq produced above its production ceiling, but aside from that,
the cartel is well on its way to implementing the production curbs.
In fact, there is suddenly a remarkable confluence of events pushing oil in a bullish direction.
First and foremost are the OPEC+ production cuts of 1.2 mb/d that are phasing in. But beyond that, US
shale is starting to slowdown, and while output is still expected to grow this year, the increase
could be the smallest in years.
Then there are the supply outages. Libya lost some output unexpectedly in December, with some of
its production still offline. Iran sanctions waivers are set to expire in May, and the US
hopes
to further cut into Iranian oil exports. The new
sanctions
on Venezuela threaten to create yet another major source of supply outages.
In fact, when considering that OPEC+ is determined to keep 1.2 mb/d of supply off of the market,
and painful US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran threaten to shut in even more output, it's pretty
amazing that Brent crude is only trading at $62 per barrel. The Fed backing off interest rate hikes is
the cherry on top.
Traders and investors are starting to wake up to this bullish sentiment.
"The market is more
convinced that there will be aggressive production cuts and the macro picture has improved a bit.
That's positive for prices going forward,"
Jean-Louis Le Mee, CEO of London-based oil hedge fund
Westbeck Capital,
told
the Wall Street Journal.
Another investor echoed that sentiment in comments to the WSJ.
"The Saudis are sincere about
higher oil prices, they need to balance their budget. The OPEC cuts will lower stocks so I'm pretty
bullish,"
said Mark Gordon, portfolio manager at the Ascent Oil Fund.
Oil prices are back up to where they were in November, and significant outages from Venezuela in
the short run could pave the way for more price increases.
Karl- I see that you asked 'what' rather than when.
Seneca Cliff refers to a very rapid decline in a feature (such as global oil production)
after it has achieved a peak. This is as opposed to a very slow decline.
Obviously for oil, a fast decline would be catastrophic.
US production will be close to flat 2019, and if ports are not improved much until late
2020, then 2020 will not be great. After that, I don't see it catching up.
As stated many times on 'theoildrum', State of the art EOR projects deplete oilfields, who
without EOR would go in terminal decline much earlier, very rapidly. So a world oilproduction
cliff cannot be ruled out, especially if money reserves from oil companies dry up.
Oil prices are likely to rise if there is a shortage of oil, this will mean oil companies
will have plenty of financial resources as long as demand is sufficient to consume the oil
produced. Not suggesting there will not be a decline, just unlikely there will be a cliff
unless oil prices drop, so far there is no evidence of a cliff and given World stock level
trend, prices are unlikely to drop further and are more likely to increase in the future.
But to repeat a cliché: depletion never sleeps. Already about fifteen years ago EOR
projects were started that extracted oil from (quite) 'past peak' or 'on plateau production'
oilfields. EOR projects in case of 'quite past peak' fields, to get 'the last recoverable'
barrel out resulting in oil production/day far less than peak production.
I know, the recoverable quantity increases with rising oilprices and better extraction
techniques, but still the production/day way past peak will be much less than on peak.
What will happen when oilprices don't increase a lot for the next ten years, for a
combination of reasons ?
At a certain point in time all the money in the world couldn't prevent world production
decline and the further that point will be in the future, the steeper will be the decline I
think. So better sooner than later oilprices begin to increase significantly, to buy some
time for the transition to EV's, etc.
I am not an expert in engineering nor in geology, far from that, just expressing a feeling
that I got after having read the many posts on theoildrum regarding this matter.
"... US need for heavy oil is also due to declines in conventional oil production. Fracking "oil" ( high in condensates) has been used to mask the peak (real) oil declines and also has a lower energy content/barrel and must be blended with heavy oil for the refineries to process it. Thus, "Prices of heavier U.S. grades like Mars Sour, an offshore medium U.S. crude, and Heavy Louisiana Sweet crude have risen as buyers scramble for supply". ..."
"... Mars currently trades at a premium to U.S. crude at $58.19 vs $53.69 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI)". Currently, the US also imports 500,000 barrels of Venezuelan crude a day to meet refinery blending requirements. ..."
"... All other shale fracking regions than the Permian have peaked or are in decline as shown by http://aheadoftheherd.com/Newsletter/2018/Shale-is-dead-long-live-conventional-oil.pdf ..."
He neglects other factors such as:
(1) poor soil management practices;
(2) demographics such as some 3 million Columbian citizens fleeing the Fascist Columbian
military attacks and putting extra stress on the social programs;
(3) Increasing US needs for Venezuela heavy crude to blend with the light fractions coming
from fracking operations (e.g. Eagle Ford light "oil" condensates;
(4) US military need for War to support funding levels (e.g. Smidley Butler's "war is a
racket";
(5) batshit crazy neocon and neoliberal ideology and world domination.
The EROI issue is worse that many consider. See Gail Tverberg article "How the Peak Oil
Story Could Be "Close," But Not Quite Right". The article points out that wellhead costs do
not capture the downstream costs of production and tax capture that bust further reduce the
EROI. https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2019/01/peak-oil-story-close-not-quite-right.html
US need for heavy oil is also due to declines in conventional oil production. Fracking
"oil" ( high in condensates) has been used to mask the peak (real) oil declines and also has
a lower energy content/barrel and must be blended with heavy oil for the refineries to
process it. Thus, "Prices of heavier U.S. grades like Mars Sour, an offshore medium U.S.
crude, and Heavy Louisiana Sweet crude have risen as buyers scramble for supply".
The economics of the US fracking light oil condensates industry is much worse when you
consider the offloading of pollution costs (drinking water), health effects, wear and tear of
highways from trucking the oil, water and fracking sands (one pound/barrel), climate change
from massive methane flaring, volatile organic compounds (VOC) release and earthquake damage
from deep injection of the water cut fluids.
This is pretty nasty propaganda, completely detached from reality. Shale oil and condensate
are less valuable for refineries and have lower energy content. That's why they are undesirable
and refineries in the USA prefer heavy oil, which has a right mixture of hydrocarbons to produce
diesel and aviation fuel along with gas,
Texas and other shale-rich states are spewing a gusher of high-quality crude -- light-sweet
in the industry parlance -- feeding a growing glut that's bending the global oil industry out
of shape.
Refiners who invested billions to turn a profit from processing cheap low-quality crude are
paying unheard of premiums to find the heavy-sour grades they need. The mismatch is better news
for OPEC producers like Iraq and Saudi Arabia, who don't produce much light-sweet, but pump
plenty of the dirtier stuff.
The crisis is Venezuela, together with OPEC output cuts, will exacerbate the mismatch. The
South American producer exports some of the world's heaviest oil and Trump administration
sanctions announced this week will make processing and exporting crude far more difficult.
American refiners are scrambling for alternative supplies at very short notice.
"We still have some holes in our supply plan" over the next 30 days, Gary Simmons, a senior
executive at Valero Energy Corp., the largest refiner in the U.S., told investors on Thursday.
"We are not taking anything from Venezuela."
Crude isn't the same everywhere: the kind pumped from the shale wells of West Texas
resembles cooking oil -- thin and easy to refine. In Venezuela's Orinoco region, it looks more
like marmalade, thick and hard to process. Density isn't the only difference -- the sulfur
content is also important, dividing the market into sweet and sour crude. Heavy crude tends to
have more sulfur than light crude.
As Saudi Arabia, Russia and Canada cut production, and American sanctions force Venezuelan
and Iranian exports lower, the market for low-quality crude is feeling the impact.
"The strength in the physical crude market continues, led by sour crude shortages," Amrita
Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd. in London, said echoing a widely held
view within the market
"... UN should be probing Washington and allies for regime-change crimes Identical condemnations from the US and allies and the synchronicity show that Venezuela is being targeted for regime change in a concerted plot led by Washington. ..."
"... It is so disappointing that Americans yet to come to realization that this criminal Jewish Mafia does not standing at the end of the old republic. He is DEEPLY involved, but his STYLE is different. He kills and terrorize the same as Regan, Carter, Clinton, Bush, Obama who have killed millions of people. His sanction is the KILLING MACHINE to topple governments TO STEAL THEIR RESOURCES FOR THE DUMMIES. I have NO respect for the liars who are trying to paint a criminal as someone 'standing against' the deep state. TRUMP IS PART OF THE DEEP STATE, ONLY DUMMIES DO NOT GET IT. ..."
"... No matter the situation in Venezuela, whatever the US government and media are saying is just hostile propaganda as they couldn't give a rat's ass about the people living there. The Libyan people were doing well out of their oil, as were the Iraqis, living in reasonable wealth and security, and look at them now after the US decided to meddle in their affairs. Now after all that, even if something the US government says may be true, why believe it? How many times do you need to be fooled to stop being a fool? ..."
"... The nuttiest member of the Trump administration is UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Her latest neo-nazi stunt was to join protestors last week calling for the overthrow of the democratically elected government of Venezuela. She grabbed a megaphone at a tiny New York rally and told the few "protesters" (organized by our CIA) to say the USA is working to overthrow their President. This was so bizarre that our corporate media refused to report it. ..."
"... Why does everyone make Trump out to be a victim, poor ol Trump, he's being screwed by all those people he himself appointed, poor ol persecuted Trump. Sounds like our Jewish friends with all the victimization BS. ..."
"... By now Trump must be near bat shit crazy. Imagine hundreds of vampires descending on every exposed artery and vein. Does he have a chance in 2020? Not with the people who are around him today ..."
"... Regardless of what the MSM reports, the population is fed-up with all the malarkey, and the same old faces. ..."
"... If he can he should issue an executive order allowing important items like immigration to go directly to public referendum, by passing congress. We're tired of idiots with personal grudges holding our President hostage. Stern times calls for sterner measures. ..."
"... Juan Guaidó is the product of a decade-long project overseen by Washington's elite regime change trainers. While posing as a champion of democracy, he has spent years at the forefront of a violent campaign of destabilization. ..."
Agent76 says:
January 30, 2019 at 7:21 pm GMT 100 Words Jan 24, 2019 Catastrophic Consequences What's Really Happening in Venezuela
In this video, we give you the latest breaking news on the current situation in Venezuela with Maduro, the election, and Trump's
response.
UN should be probing Washington and allies for regime-change crimes Identical condemnations from the US and allies and the
synchronicity show that Venezuela is being targeted for regime change in a concerted plot led by Washington.
@Sergey Krieger Negotiations are not necessarily a sign of weakness. However, Maduro should negotiate with the puppet masters,
not with the puppet. I don't think that killing that pathetic Guaido is a good strategy: you don't want to make a martyr out of
nonentity.
And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and I support American diplomatic and
economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all, Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves.
FUCK YOU! Venezuela is not "our" back yard. And the oil does not belong to "us".
[Donald Trump, for all that and for his various faults and miscues, is in reality the only thing standing in the way of the end
of the old republic. ]
It is so disappointing that Americans yet to come to realization that this criminal Jewish Mafia does not standing at the
end of the old republic. He is DEEPLY involved, but his STYLE is different. He kills and terrorize the same as Regan, Carter,
Clinton, Bush, Obama who have killed millions of people. His sanction is the KILLING MACHINE to topple governments TO STEAL THEIR
RESOURCES FOR THE DUMMIES. I have NO respect for the liars who are trying to paint a criminal as someone 'standing against' the
deep state. TRUMP IS PART OF THE DEEP STATE, ONLY DUMMIES DO NOT GET IT.
The ignorant Jewish mafia 'president' IS MORE DANGEROUS because he like his 'advisors' is totally ILLITERATE. It is a family
business dummies.
Are dummies going to hold petty people like Bolton who lie to get money from MEK to buy a new suit and new shoes, is responsible
for the policy of the Trump regime where he wages WARS, economic sanction, to starve children to surrender? Then NO ONE Trusts
you. MEK people are not more than 20, but are funded by the US colony, Saudi Arabia where MBS transfers money to the Jewish mafia
family funding US wars.
Maduro has EVERY SINGLE RIGHT to arrest Juan Guiado, a gigolo who is taking orders from a US and an illiterate 'president',
where its dark history known to every living creature on earth. US has massacred millions of people in all continents including
Latin America.
Maduro has every single right to arrest him and put on trail and execute him as a traitor and an enemy of the state. How many
years the people in Venezuela should suffer for the US 'regime change' and its crimes against humanity in Venezuela to STEAL ITS
RESOURCES.
"So let me get this straight: The Russians brought America to its knees with a few facebook ads, but Uncle Sam's concerted and
ongoing efforts to overthrow governments around the world and interfere with elections is perfectly fine? Because democracy? Riiiiiiight."
:
[The last Venezuelan Presidential election was a joke. ]
YOU ARE A JOKE ZIONIST IDIOT.
The Making of Juan Guaidó: How the US Regime Change Laboratory Created Venezuela's Coup Leader
[Juan Guaidó is the product of a decade-long project overseen by Washington's elite regime change trainers. While posing as
a champion of democracy, he has spent years at the forefront of a violent campaign of destabilization.]
Illiterate Jewish Mafia 'president' must be kicked out of the office. Hands of Israel is all over the SELECTION.
The ignorant 'president' is MORE DANGEROUS THANT OTHER CRIMINAL US REGIMES because on top of being a criminal, he is ILLITERATE
as well.
[In 2009, the Generation 2007 youth activists staged their most provocative demonstration yet, dropping their pants on public
roads and aping the outrageous guerrilla theater tactics outlined by Gene Sharp in his regime change manuals.This far-right group
"gathered funds from a variety of US government sources, which allowed it to gain notoriety quickly as the hardline wing of opposition
street movements," according to academic George Ciccariello-Maher's book, "Building the Commune."
That year, Guaidó exposed himself to the public in another way, founding a political party to capture the anti-Chavez energy
his Generation 2007 had cultivated.]
@By-tor See, this is the typical lie. Socialism fails, so the socialist blames the outside wrecker for causing the problem.
If Moscow freezes, then it is because of the wreckers. If Moscow starves, then it is because of the wreckers.
If Venezuela collapses, then it is because of "sanctions," not the failure of the new socialist economy.
America has the right to lock anyone out of its economy that it wants, for whatever reasons. This should not matter because
that nation can still trade with the rest of the world, like China. Venezuela could get everything it wants by simply selling
oil to China in exchange for goods. The problem is, there is not enough oil production to do so and other nations are reluctant
to replace American investment for fear of losing their assets as well.
Think about how wrong-headed the Chavez policy has been. If the Venezuelans have problems with their local ruling class and
want to get rid of them fine do so. But, why go after the American oil company? The Americans don't care who rules Venezuela as
long as their contracts are honored. Chavez could have then been a true socialist an allocate a greater dividend to Venezuelans
that was previously being hoarded by the ruling class an arrangement similar to what Alaskans have with American oil companies.
But no there was an immediate seizure of assets because the only purpose of socialism is to make the socialist leaders rich.
And Chavez and Maduro became very rich indeed.
@AnonFromTN I would happily martyr gorbachov , Yeltsin and all their gang. I think everybody would have been far better of
then. Same is applied to the puppet. Nikolai II was martyred and things got a lot better. What is important is winning and final
outcome, while making some martyrs in the process.
@Harold Smith Trump's personnel picks are mind-boggling. I cannot see how he disapproves Eliot Abrams for deputy SoS with
one breath, then blandly allows Pompeo to appoint him an envoy to a trouble-spot. Bolton, Pompeo, Goldberg et al.
NEOCON America does not want Russian bombers in South America.
Real America doesn't give a f*ck. Bombers are so last century, might as well put up machine-gun equipped Union Pacific Big
Boys to make it marginally more steampunk and become a real danger for the USA.
@Tyrion 2 There is not a single complaint here that did not exist before the election or before Pres Chavez.
There are poor management leaders all over the globe. That';s their business. Hey we have some right here in the US I take
it your solution is a military coup or better yet a coup fostered by the EU or the OAS, or maybe ASEAN or SDG . . .
It would be nice if someone simply asked Trump why it is he originally wanted to get along with Russia and pull out of the middle
east and generally opposed the "neoconservative" approach and now seems to be hiring neocons and doing what they want. Is he trying
to placate Sheldon Adelson and Adelson's lackeys, or what? I don't know of his being asked about this directly.
Venezuelan lawmaker Jose Guerra dropped a bombshell on Twitter Tuesday: The Russian Boeing 777 that had landed in Caracas the
day before was there to spirit away 20 tons of gold from the vaults of the country's central bank. Guerra is a former central
bank economist who remains in touch with old colleagues there. A person with direct knowledge of the matter told Bloomberg News
Tuesday that 20 tons of gold have been set aside in the central bank for loading. Worth some $840 million, the gold represents
about 20 percent of its holdings of the metal in Venezuela.
No matter the situation in Venezuela, whatever the US government and media are saying is just hostile propaganda as they
couldn't give a rat's ass about the people living there. The Libyan people were doing well out of their oil, as were the Iraqis,
living in reasonable wealth and security, and look at them now after the US decided to meddle in their affairs. Now after all
that, even if something the US government says may be true, why believe it? How many times do you need to be fooled to stop being
a fool?
No, Chavez had popular legitimacy. Maduro has nothing but force to keep himself in power now. Yes, there's easy definition
for the above but Chavismo is decrepit.
Pressure for a reasonable Presidential election is based on that.
The Trumptards blindly support me. I can do no wrong.
There are not enough independent thinkers to make a difference as the two main sides bitterly fight each other over every
minute, meaningless issue.
I can pretty much do as I please without consequence ..like pay off all my buddies and pander to the jews/globalist/elites.
I'd add: and by doing the last, I could cut a deal with the real TPTBs as to for what happens after I leave White House.
Chavez had popular support . He felt the need to intimidate opponents from the beginning. Like Bill Bellicheck and Tom
Brady feeling the need to cheat.
Makes sense. They owe a big chunk of money to Russia and a payment of 100 million is coming due. Russia gets security for future
payments while it holds their gold in a safe place. They may ship the rest to China if they are smart
The nuttiest member of the Trump administration is UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Her latest neo-nazi stunt was to join
protestors last week calling for the overthrow of the democratically elected government of Venezuela. She grabbed a megaphone
at a tiny New York rally and told the few "protesters" (organized by our CIA) to say the USA is working to overthrow their
President. This was so bizarre that our corporate media refused to report it.
She's being paid no doubt by the usual suspects. She is personally 1 million in debt and has signed with a Speakers agency
to give speeches for 200,000 a pop.
COLUMBIA, S.C. (WCIV)
"Haley is currently quoting $200,000 and the use of a private jet for domestic speaking engagements, according to CNBC
In October 2018, when Haley resigned, she said, she would be taking a "step up" into the private sector after leaving the U.N.
According to a public financial disclosure report based on 2017 data, at the rate quoted for her engagements, just a handful would
pay down more than $1 million in outstanding debt that was accrued during her 14 years
3. There are not enough independent thinkers to make a difference as the two main sides bitterly fight each other over every
minute, meaningless issue.
Well people you need to explore this move to take over Venezuela in the context of what having that oil control will mean for
the US and Israel in the increasingly likely event we blow up Iran and up end the ME for Israel.
So what could happen that might make control of oil rich Venezuela necessary? Why has Venezuela become a Bolton and Abrams
project? Why is Netanyahu putting himself into the Venezuela crisis ?
We, otoh, would need all the oil we could get if we blew up the ME, specifically Iran, figuratively or literally. The US signed
a MOU with Israel in 1973 obligating us to supply Israel with oil ( and ship it to them) if they couldn't secure any for themselves.
@Hibernian I hate those two guys so much, and the owner Kraft also. I'm hoping for a helmet to helmet collision for Brady
early in the second quarter with his bell ringing for the rest of the game. (Evil grin)
@Tyrion 2 Yes, the int'l monitors said the elections were fair as Maduro received over 60% of the vote. You think the 'deplorables'
of venezuela elected the known US-Wall Street neo-liberal puppet Guaido? No, the US Tape Worm groomed this twerp, all-the-while
his backers and paymasters in the American neo-Liberal ruling class claim Russian meddling in the 2016 US elections. The shamelessness
and hypocrisy is astounding.
@Tyrion 2 Pres Hugo Chavez's admin was very controversial. And the conditions you speak of have plagued Venezuela even before
Pres Chavez came to government.
This really is none of our affair. We don't have a mandate to go about the planet tossing out whoever we think is crazy. He
is not a threat to the US. There's no indication that he intends to harm US businesses.
Their polity means their polity. You'll have to do better than he's crazy, mean, a despot, etc. That's for them to resolve.
@Commentator Mike Seems some will never learn the definition of insanity, especially the NeoCons who have been running America
for far too long. I recommend John Perkins "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" for the less informed among us here today. Maybe
at some point they will get a clue.
I heartily dislike and find despicable the socialist government of Maduro, just as I did Hugo Chavez when he was in power.
I have some good friends there, one of whom was a student of mine when I taught in Argentina many years ago, and he and his
family resolutely oppose Maduro. Those socialist leaders in Caracas are tin-pot dictator wannabees who have wrecked the economy
of that once wealthy country; and they have ridden roughshod over the constitutional rights of the citizens. My hope has been
that the people of Venezuela, perhaps supported by elements in the army, would take action to rid the country of those tyrants.
Hard to take this guy seriously when he spouts Fox News level propaganda.
Why does everyone make Trump out to be a victim, poor ol Trump, he's being screwed by all those people he himself appointed,
poor ol persecuted Trump. Sounds like our Jewish friends with all the victimization BS.
Its clear that voting no longer works folks, this is an undemocratic and illegitimate "government" we have here. We let them
get away with killing JFK, RFK, MLK, Vietnam, we let them get away with 9/11, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Syria. They've made a
mess in Africa. All the refugees into Europe, all the refugees from Latin America that have already come from CIA crimes, more
will come.
We wouldn't need a wall if Wall St would stop with their BS down there!
You can't just blame Jews, yes there are lots of Jews in Corporate America, bu t not all of them are, and there are lots of
Jews who speak out against this. We were doing this long before Israel came into existence. You can't just blame everything one
one group, I think Israel/Zionist are responsible for a lot of BS, but you can't exclude CIA, Wall St, Corporations, Banks, The
MIC either. Its not just one group, its all of them. They're all evil, they're imperialists and they're all capitalists. I think
Israel is just a capitalist creation, nothing to do with Jews, just a foothold in he middle east for Wall St to have a base to
control the oil and gas there, they didn't create Israel until they dicovered how much oil was there, and realized how much control
over the world it would give them to control it. Those people moving to Israel are being played, just like the "Christian Zionists"
here are, its a cult. Most "Jews" are atheists anyhow, and it seems any ol greedy white guy can claim to be a Jew. So how do you
solve a "Jewish Problem" if anybody can claim to be a Jew? I think solving the capitalist problem would be a little easier to
enforce.
All of the shills can scream about communists, socialists and marxists all they want. Capitalism is the problem always has
been always will be. Its a murderous, immoral, unsustainable system that encourages greed, it is a system who's driving force
is maximizing profits, and as such the State controlled or aligned with Corporations is the most advanced form of capitalism because
it is the most profitable. They're raping the shit out of us, taking our money to fund their wars, so they can make more money
while paying little to no taxes at all. Everything, everyone here complains about is caused by CAPITALISM, but nobody dares say
it, they've been programmed since birth to think that way.
We should nationalize our oil and gas, instead of letting foreigners come in and steal it, again paying little or no taxes
on it, then selling the oil they took from our country back to us. Russia and Venezuela do it, Libya did it, Iraq did it, and
they used the money for the people of the country, they didn't let the capitalists plunder their wealth like the traitors running
our country. We're AT LEAST $21 trillion in the hole now from this wonderful system of ours, don't you think we should try something
else? Duh!
It is the love of money, the same thing the Bible warned us about. Imperialism/globalism is the latest stage of capitalism,
that is what all of this is about, follow the money. Just muh opinion
@Tyrion 2 From the people fool not by the C.I.A. declaring that well we like the other fellow best for president,after all
using the logic you fail to have Hillary could have said call me madam president and leave the orange clown out in the dark,stupid,stupid
people
"And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and I support American diplomatic and
economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all, Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves."
OMG, Cathey really said that. Is he always such a shit? He certainly has Venezuela completely wrong.
@AnonFromTN This phylosophical questions should not led to no actions. Modern Russia is actually in much better position now
than it was in 1913. True. There is never final. Sorry for wrong words choice. Dialectics.
@Wizard of Oz The scenario you describe is an accurate. And requires me to make judgments about a dynamic I am unfamiliar
with -- no bite. Several sides to this tale and I have heard and seen it before.
I may however make a call.
In 2017 2/3 of the states in the region chose not to interfere. They have not changed their minds on intervention.
ohh by the way I did ask and here's the familial response:
But reading the data sets makes it clear that what they want is some humanitarian relief. B y and large I have the family telling
me to mind my own business, but they would like a meal, some medicine and some water.
By now Trump must be near bat shit crazy. Imagine hundreds of vampires descending on every exposed artery and vein. Does he
have a chance in 2020? Not with the people who are around him today.
Regardless of what the MSM reports, the population is fed-up with all the malarkey, and the same old faces.
In Trump's remaining 2 years he must throw off the parasites, bring in real men, and go to work on infrastructure, health
care, and real jobs. He has to out the naysayers, the creeps and the war mongers. Throw Bolton from the train, and divorce Netanyahu
and Israel. Appeal directly to the public.
If he can he should issue an executive order allowing important items like immigration to go directly to public referendum,
by passing congress. We're tired of idiots with personal grudges holding our President hostage. Stern times calls for sterner
measures.
@RobinG That would be an easy, almost optimistic explanation: some people are venal enough to say or write anything for money.
Pessimistic explanation is that some people who can read and write are nonetheless dumb or brainwashed enough to sincerely believe
the BS they are writing.
Can you define what capitalism is ? Once that idea is refined, finessed, and compared to multiple color changes of capitalism,
it becomes easier who to fit in the plastic infinitely expandable box of ideas of capitalism starting with the chartered company
to patient laws to companies making military hardwares paid by tax payers to tax cut by government to seizure of foreign asset
by US-UK to protection of the US business by military forces to selling military gadgets to the countries owned by families like
Saudi royals Gulf monarchs and to the African ( American installed ) dictators to printing money .
A great article I posted in another thread few days ago dives deep into who Juan Guaido is and his past grooming for the past
10+ years:
Juan Guaidó is the product of a decade-long project overseen by Washington's elite regime change trainers. While posing
as a champion of democracy, he has spent years at the forefront of a violent campaign of destabilization.
"Whoever believed that Trump will drain the swamp must feel disappointed."
The thing is, Trump just didn't fail to drain the swamp, he "took the ball and ran with
it." Apparently he's an enthusiastic imperialist who gets off on the illegitimate use of
military force. (His attack on the Shayrat airbase in Syria should end any debate about
that).
Supposedly he's been wanting to attack Venezuela for a while:
I can understand Trump's die-hard supporters' argument that Trump is being coerced into
doing evil things (although I don't agree with it), but how can they explain Trump's apparent
enthusiasm?
The only explanation that makes sense to me is that Trump's anti-war/anti-interventionist
tweets from 2013 were insincere and his whole presidential campaign was a brazen fraud.
Edit: I just saw your comment #71; so you apparently see it the same way I do.
@By-tor Maduro is just Venezuelan Mugabe. Has it really come to this? That people on Unz
will support any random lunatic as long as he mouths off about America or Israel every now
and again?
Oh, but the sanctions! Proper economic sanctions were only very recently applied. The
Venezuelan economy was already utterly wrecked by their joke of a government.
Liken the US not trading with Venezuela to a medieval siege if you like, but I suggest you
read up on medieval sieges first. Hint: they weren't merely a government run boycott.
@onebornfree Some all to rare common sense – a writer who understands that both big
government Trump and the big government "opposition" to Trump are not, never were , and never
will be, "the answer":
"The Real Problem Is The Politicization Of Everything"
" While on the market and in radically decentralized systems, disagreements and
polarization are not a problem, centralized political decision-making has in its nature that
only one view can prevail. Suddenly, who is in the White House or whether regulation X or Y
is passed does matter a great deal, and those with a different opinion than you on it may
seem like actual enemies. Within voluntary settings, one can live with people that one
disagrees with. All parties curate a way of life that works while living in peace with
others.
To regain civility in human interactions and finally treat other human beings as human
beings again, we would do well to get politics out of human affairs."
For those who think this coup attempt was sudden, here is something from my blog:
Oct 9, 2018 – Ambassador Supports Coup
Few Americans know that our nation imposed harsh economic sanctions on Venezuela because
the Neocons want to overthrow its democratic government. They hate that oil rich Venezuela
insists on controlling its oil production rather than allowing big American corporations to
run things. Almost three years ago, Neocon puppet Barack Obama declared a national emergency
to impose sanctions by designating Venezuela an "unusual and extraordinary threat" to
national security, and Trump continued sanctions.
The nuttiest member of the Trump administration is UN Ambassador Nikki Haley. Her latest
neo-nazi stunt was to join protestors last week calling for the overthrow of the
democratically elected government of Venezuela. She grabbed a megaphone at a tiny New York
rally and told the few "protesters" (organized by our CIA) to say the USA is working to
overthrow their President. This was so bizarre that our corporate media refused to report it.
Jimmy Dore assembled this great video of CNN presenting their expert calling the President of
Venezuela paranoid for saying the USA wants to overthrow his government. A few hours later, a
different CNN report documented recent efforts by the USA to overthrow his government!
@Tyrion 2 This is not about Maduro, or Guaido, who is likely an even bigger shit, as he
clearly serves foreign masters. Don't you think it should be up to the people of Venezuela to
change their president? The US meddling is against every rule of behavior of countries
towards other countries. How would you feel if Burkina Faso told you who should be the
president of the US? That's exactly how every Venezuelan who has dignity feels, regardless of
their opinion of Maduro and his coterie.
@Tyrion 2 The US has been plotting against Venezuela since the last Wall Street puppet
Pres. Rafael Caldera was defeated by Chavez and ownership of oil assets returned to Venezuela
thereby cutting out anf angering the NYC-London predatory globalist cabal. Trump's hitmen are
now preventing the Venezuelan state from accessing credit and from withdrawing its own money
and gold foolishly deposited in US and London banks. The Venezuelan corporate elite act
against the general population. You do not fully understand the situation.
Ethnonationalist stuff is ridiculous, it's stupid on the face of it, it's ridiculous,
I've said it from day one. Ethnonationalism is a dead end, it's for losers. Economic
nationalism and civic nationalism bind you together as citizens, regardless of your race,
regardless of your ethnicity, regardless of your religion
@Digital Samizdat Digital Samizdat -- As civic nationalism is no kind of nationalism and
presents no obstacle to race replacement, I imagine Jewry will be happy with it. Jewry will
also be happy that
Bannon the race realist ('It's been almost a Camp of the Saints-type invasion into
Central and then Western and Northern Europe') has been successfully neutered.
"... In February 2017, it was reported that Abrams was Secretary of State Rex Tillerson 's first pick for Deputy Secretary of State , but that Tillerson was subsequently overruled by Trump. Trump aides were supportive of Abrams , but Trump opposed him because of Abrams' opposition during the campaign. ..."
"... On January 25, 2019, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appointed Abrams as the United States' Special Envoy to Venezuela ." ..."
There he was, right there on the stage to the right side of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
who was briefing the press on America's position concerning the recent coup in Venezuela. I
rubbed my eyes -- was I seeing what I thought I was seeing?
It was Elliot Abrams. What was HE doing there? After all, back in February 2017, after
then-Secretary of State Rex Tillerson had pushed for his nomination as Deputy Secretary of
State, it was President Trump himself who had vetoed his appointment.
Here is how the anodyne account in Wikipedia describes it:
In February 2017, it was reported that Abrams was Secretary of State Rex Tillerson 's first pick
for Deputy Secretary of
State , but that Tillerson was subsequently overruled by Trump. Trump aides were
supportive of Abrams , but Trump opposed him because of Abrams' opposition during the
campaign. [emphasis mine]
Abrams during the 2016 campaign had been a NeverTrumper who vigorously opposed Donald Trump
and who had strongly attacked the future president's "Make America Great Again," America First
foreign policy proposals.
Abrams, a zealous Neoconservative and ardent globalist was -- and is -- one of those foreign
policy "experts" who has never seen a conflict in a faraway country, in a desert or jungle,
where he did not want to insert American troops, especially if such an intervention would
support Israeli policy. He was deeply enmeshed in earlier American interventionist miscues and
blunders in the Middle East, even incurring charges of malfeasance.
Apparently, President Trump either did not know that or perhaps did not remember Abrams's
activities or stout opposition. In any case, back in 2017 it took an intervention by a
well-placed friend with Washington connections who provided that information directly to Laura
Ingraham who then, in turn, placed it on the president's desk And Abrams' selection was
effectively stopped, torpedoed by Donald Trump.
But here now was Abrams on stage with the Secretary of State.
What was that all about?
Again, I went to Wikipedia, and once again, I quote from that source: " On January 25,
2019, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo appointed Abrams as the United
States' Special Envoy to Venezuela ."
Despite President Trump's resolute veto back in February 2017, Abrams was back, this time as
a Special Envoy, right smack in the department that President Trump had forbade him to serve
in. Did the president know? Had he signed off on this specially-created appointment? After all,
the very title "Special Envoy on Venezuela" seems something dreamed up bureaucratically by the
policy wonks at State, or maybe by Mike Pompeo.
Then there was the widely reported news, accompanied by a convenient camera shot of National
Security Adviser John Bolton's note pad (which may or may not have been engineered by him),
with the scribble: "5,000 troops to Colombia."
What gives here?
Last week suddenly there was a coup d'etat in Venezuela, with the head of the national
assembly, Juan Guiado, proclaiming himself as the country's new and rightful president, and the
theoretical deposition of then-current President Nicolas Maduro. And we were told that this
action was totally "spontaneous" and an "act of the Venezuelan people for democracy," and that
the United States had had nothing to do with it.
If you believe that, I have an oil well in my backyard that I am quite willing to sell to
you for a few million, or maybe a bit less.
Of course, the United States and our overseas intelligence services were involved.
Let me clarify: like most observers who have kept up with the situation in oil-rich
Venezuela, I heartily dislike and find despicable the socialist government of Maduro, just as I
did Hugo Chavez when he was in power. I have some good friends there, one of whom was a student
of mine when I taught in Argentina many years ago, and he and his family resolutely oppose
Maduro. Those socialist leaders in Caracas are tin-pot dictator wannabees who have wrecked the
economy of that once wealthy country; and they have ridden roughshod over the constitutional
rights of the citizens. My hope has been that the people of Venezuela, perhaps supported by
elements in the army, would take action to rid the country of those tyrants.
And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and I
support American diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all,
Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves.
But potentially sending American troops -- as many as 5,000 -- to fight in a country which
is made up largely of jungle and impassible mountains, appears just one more instance, one more
example, of the xenophobic internationalism of men like Bolton and the now state department
official, Abrams, who believe American boots on the ground is the answer to every international
situation. Experience over the past four decades should indicate the obvious folly of such
policies for all but the historically blind and ideologically corrupt.
While we complain that the Russians and Chinese have propped up the Maduro government and
invested deeply in Venezuela, a country within our "sphere of influence" in the Western
Hemisphere (per the "Monroe Doctrine") -- we have done the very same thing, even more
egregiously in regions like Ukraine that were integrally part of historical Russia, and in
Crimea, which was never really part of Ukraine (only for about half a century) but historically
and ethnically Russian. Did we not solemnly pledge to Mikhail Gorbachev, under George H. W.
Bush, that if the old Soviet Union would dissolve and let its some fourteen socialist
"republics" go their own way, leave the Russian Federation, that we, in turn, would not advance
NATO up to the borders of Russia? And then we did the exact opposite almost immediately go back
on our word and move our troops and advisers right up to the borders of post-1991 Russia?
From mid-2015 on I was a strong supporter of Donald Trump, and, in many ways, I still am. In
effect, he may be the only thing that stands in the way of a total and complete recouping of
power by the Deep State, the only slight glimmer of light -- that immovable force who stands up
at times to the power-elites and who has perhaps given us a few years of respite as the
managerial class zealously attempts to repair the breach he -- and we -- inflicted on it in
2016.
My major complaint, what I have seen as a kind of Achilles' Heel in the Trump presidency,
has always been in personnel, those whom the president has surrounded himself with. And my
criticism is measured and prudential, in the sense that I also understand what happens -- and
what did happen -- when a billionaire businessman, a kind of bull-in-the-china shop (exactly
what was needed), comes to Washington and lacks experience with the utterly amoral and
oleaginous and obsequious political class that has dominated and continues to dominate our
government, both Democrats and, most certainly, Republicans.
The wife of a very dear friend of thirty-five years served in a fairly high post during the
Reagan administration. Before her untimely death a few years ago, she recounted to me in stark
detail how the minions and acolytes of George H. W. Bush managed to surround President Reagan
and subvert large portions of the stated Reagan Agenda. Reagan put his vice-president
effectively in charge of White House personnel: and, as they say, that was it, the Reagan
Revolution was essentially over.
In 2016 a number of friends and I created something called "Scholars for Trump." Composed
mostly of academics, research professors, and accomplished professionals, and headed by Dr.
Walter Block, Professor of Economics at Loyola-New Orleans, and Dr. Paul Gottfried,
Raffensperger Professor of Humanities at Elizabethtown College, in Pennsylvania, we attempted
to gather real professed believers in the stated Trump agenda. We received scant mention
(mostly negative) in the so-called "conservative" press, who proceeded to smear us as
"ultra-right wingers" and "paleo-conservatives." And, suddenly, there appeared another
pro-Trump list, and that one composed largely of the same kinds of professionals, but many if
not most of whom had not supported Donald Trump and his agenda during the primary
campaigns.
What was certain was that many of the amoral time-servers and power elitists had decided
that it was time for them to attach themselves to Trump, time for them to insinuate themselves
into positions of power once again, no matter their distaste and scorn for that brash
billionaire upstart from New York.
Remember the (in)famous interview that the President-elect had with Mitt Romney who
desperately wanted to be Secretary of State? Recall the others also interviewed -- some of whom
we remembered as Donald Trump's opponents in the campaign -- who came hat-in-hand to Trump
Tower looking for lucrative positions and the opportunity once again to populate an
administration and direct policy? And, yes, work from within to counteract the stated Trump
agenda?
It would be too facile to blame the president completely: after all, the professional policy
wonks, the touted experts in those along-the-Potomac institutes and foundations, were there
already in place. And, indeed, there was a need politically, as best as possible, to bring
together the GOP if anything were to get through Congress. (As we have seen, under Paul Ryan
practically none of the Trump Agenda was enacted, and Ryan at every moment pushed open
borders.)
Our contacts did try; we did have a few associates close to the president. A few -- but only
a few -- of our real Trump Agenda supporters managed to climb aboard. But in the long run we
were no match for the machinations of the power elites and GOP establishment. And we discovered
that the president's major strength -- not being a Washington Insider -- was also his major
weakness, and that everything depended on his instincts, and that somehow if the discredited
globalists and power-hungry Neoconservatives (who did not give Trump the time of day before his
election) were to go too far, maybe, hopefully, he would react.
And he has, on occasion done just that, as perhaps in the case of Syria, and maybe even in
Afghanistan, and in a few other situations. But each time he has had to pass the gauntlet of
"advisers" whom he has allowed to be in place who vigorously argue against (and undercut) the
policies they are supposed to implement.
Donald Trump, for all that and for his various faults and miscues, is in reality the only
thing standing in the way of the end of the old republic. The fact that he is so violently and
unreservedly hated by the elites, by the media, by academia, and by Hollywood must tell us
something. In effect, however, it not just the president they hate, not even his rough-edged
personality -- it is what he represents, that in 2016 he opened a crack, albeit small, into a
world of Deep State putrefaction, a window into sheer Evil, and the resulting falling away of
the mask of those "body snatchers" who had for so long exuded confidence that their subversion
and control was inevitable and just round the corner.
President Trump will never be forgiven for that. And, so, as much as I become frustrated
with some of the self-inflicted wounds, some of the actions which appear at times to go
flagrantly against his agenda, as much as I become heartsick when I see the faces of Elliot
Abrams -- and Mitt Romney -- in positions where they can continue their chipping away at that
agenda, despite all that, I continue to pray that his better instincts will reign and that he
will look beyond such men, and just maybe learn that what you see first in Washington is
usually not what you'll get.
I cannot imagine a more evil person to be allowed back into govt than this man, who is
more evil than he looks.
It is over, in my mind, with the trump admin; nothing has been done about the long list of
crimes committed by the obama gang during the election and after. Nothing has been done about
seth rich, I would add michael hastings, and the long list of clinton "suicides" and the
clinton crimes. the list is endless with no progress.
The dimos in doj, fbi, etc have completely out-manuevered trump and he really has no junk
yard dog to protect him-guliani is a joke, even if he is sober as he claims to be.
Linh Dinh on this website (June 12, 2016) predicted both the election outcome and its
meaninglessness. He had by then, of course, been blackballed by Scholars, Inc., and is now
helping to run a recycling operation back in Vietnam. But he has emerged as one of the top
Unz columnists, most of his Heritage American attackers who couldn't see past their DNA
having slunk away.
Conversely, go read the comment thread under Mr. Buchanan's latest. People who used to
fall for the "we/us/our" conflation of their country and Uncle Sam are waking up, due largely
to the President in whom you still place your scholarly hope. We may not be scholars, but we
understand that the blood of people in places like Iraq, Libya, Syria, and soon enough
Venezuela is on the hands of those who endorse the warmongering imperialism of Exceptionalia.
Your scholarly enabling, such as:
"And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and I
support American diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all,
Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves."
is naive at best. As a scholar, did you support the "economic pressure" rationalized by
Secretary of State Albright that killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis, many of them
children?
Those of you who still expect the Unz readership to give two sh ** s about Donald Trump or
anyone else in the Washington Puppet Show are fast losing your relevance around here.
Yup, Personnel is Policy; always has been. The scale of it all really precludes the kind of
benefit-of-the-doubt explanation the author struggles to formulate. It's not that Trump tried
to do the right thing but some war-hawks, jews, and Wall-Street shysters got through
regardless. Those were the only people that needed apply because Trump wasn't considering
anybody else. One simply has to conclude that the people that currently surround him are
indeed "his kind of people". And let's not forget that after a crash course in the realities
of government he replaced Tillerson and notorious torturer McMaster because they were not
hawkish, not pro-Israel, enough .
What evidence is there that your definition of "doing the right thing" coincides with
Trump's anyway. Yes he made some non-interventionist noises during the campaign, but that was
mostly during the primary before he'd kissed Adelson's ring in exchange for the shekels. But
he was also "a very militaristic guy" who was all for "taking the oil" and who nonstop hated
on Iran. Face it, it was just the Obama playbook: throw an incoherent mishmash to the proles
in the hope that they remember only those parts they liked.
Isn't Trump's CV rather more illuminating on who he is than his campaign rhetoric: casino
operator and pro-wrestling MC. He gets off on playing the rubes.
From mid-2015 on I was a strong supporter of Donald Trump, and, in many ways, I still
am. In effect, he may be the only thing that stands in the way of a total and complete
recouping of power by the Deep State
Donald Trump, for all that and for his various faults and miscues, is in reality the
only thing standing in the way of the end of the old republic.
.despite all that, I continue to pray that his better instincts will reign and that he
will look beyond such men, and just maybe learn that what you see first in Washington is
usually not what you'll get.
The US military has kept some 3000 soldiers in Columbia for years. Maybe that has grown to
5000, but Bolton's yellow pad note was a simple trick to fool simpletons. Invading Venezuela
would require at least 50,000 US troops.
Americans are quick to denounce socialists, especially those in the US military who thrive
in a socialist US military. Most Americans do not realize that their police, firefighters,
schools, most universities, roads, water, and electricity are products of socialism. If you
have an emergency in the USA, you dial 9-11 for socialists to help you. Everyone thinks that
is great!
From my blog:
Jan 27, 2019 – A Clumsy Slow Coup
Corporate America media has not reported basic facts about the attempted takeover of
Venezuela. The Deep State has tried to overthrow the popular, elected government of Venezuela
for a decade as it gradually nationalized its oil production. Several coup attempts failed so
the USA imposed sanctions to punish the people for voting wrong. Sanctions caused shortages
and inflation but the elected government remains in power.
In the past, the USA conducted coups by bribing Generals to conduct a quick military
takeover, and always denied participation. The Trump administration gave up on deception and
began a clumsy, slow coup. I suspect Trump's new CIA appointed attorney general told Trump
that he had the power to appoint foreign presidents, so last week he openly appointed a new
president for Venezuela. The Venezuelan army openly backs the existing president so nothing
changed. The UN did not recognize Trump's puppet president nor did any other major world
power. These facts do not appear in our corporate media, although the internet provides
reality via a Paul Craig Roberts article. (posted at unz.com)
Trump has now ordered other nations to send payments for oil purchases to a bank account
controlled by his new president. This infuriates foreign governments because they know oil
shipments will stop if they fail to pay the legitimate government of Venezuela, and oil
prices will rise worldwide as they scramble to buy oil elsewhere. Meanwhile, a massive
humanitarian and refugee crisis is building as the result of this economic embargo.
I do not know how the fracking is going in the winter. I have read somewhere, that yields
from fracking are going down. also that fracking companies are moving down to Texas.Also I do
not know the state of strategic reserves, But I definitely suspect that moves in Venezuela
were planed long before. so I have to presume that this is all about price of oil.
Trump quite a while ago, quite eagerly said something about moving on Venezuela.
Trump can be easily triggered by any economic subject by which US gains. But I do suspect
that in this case it could be economic necessity. (What would be a real shame.)
@Taras77 I agree Taras. Although I much enjoyed reading Boyd Cathey's essay, sadly, I
think he remains too optimistic. With the D's back in charge of the House, and the R's
impotent in the Senate, (McConnell as majority leader is a joke), Trump's stated agenda is
all over. He got nothing in his first two years besides the traditional GOP tax cut for the
rich. And he waited far too long to get serious about the wall. Yes, Koch-man Paul Ryan
opposed it, but surely Trump could have tried harder to get enough R votes to override him.
His only option now, unless Pelosi budges a little, would be to declare a National Emergency
on Feb 15. There is no way he could shut down the government again. Let's see how that goes.
However I disagree with Realist's comment. With Trump being attacked viciously on all
sides, I don't understand how anyone could think he is part of the Deep State. I think Victor
Davis Hanson got it right when he called Trump a "Tragic Hero."
Whoever believed that Trump will drain the swamp must feel disappointed. The US foreign
policy is run by the swamp now, like it always was. The US uses full range of classical
gangster tactics against Venezuela: blackmail, theft of assets, threats, etc. The US tries to
instigate yet another "color revolution" to bring yet another puppet to power in yet another
country. The only difference is, Maduro resists. But that's the difference in the victim
country, not in DC.
I do not know how the fracking is going in the winter. I have read somewhere, that yields
from fracking are going down. also that fracking companies are moving down to Texas.Also I do
not know the state of strategic reserves, But I definitely suspect that moves in Venezuela
were planed long before. so I have to presume that this is all about price of oil.
Trump quite a while ago, quite eagerly said something about moving on Venezuela.
Trump can be easily triggered by any economic subject by which US gains. But I do suspect
that in this case it could be economic necessity. (What would be a real shame.)
@Ilyana_Rozumova It is not clear whether you are saying that Trump is trying to raise or
lower oil prices.
If he wants to lower oil prices then why is he making it difficult for Iran to sell its
oil?
If he wants to raise oil prices then why does he want the big US oil companies in
Venezuela to sort out that country's oil business and raise exports?
I suspect he, and those around him, have no idea what they want to achieve. They are
simply trying to demonstrate their "power" and ability to change regimes. To give the Monroe
Doctrine a bit of oxygen. To scare the European vassals.
@Taras77 Correct, Trump is a member of the Deep State. Trump's election and big talk is a
charade. It is hard to believe anyone would not see Trump as a chimera after all his
bullshit.
Also I do not know the state of strategic reserves, But I definitely suspect that moves
in Venezuela were planed long before
Trump is doing the same thing he did in his businesses ..using 'other people's
money.assests' to cover his ass.
Now picture this ..sanctions on Iran, sanctions on Russia, sanctions on Venezuela + rising US
interest rates + a slowing economy + half of US oil reserves sold to cover government
spending.
Hope people get use to riding a bike when this perfect storm hits.
U.S. sells 11 million barrels of oil from reserve to Exxon, five other
firmshttps://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-oil-reserve/u-s-sells-11-million-barrels-of-oil-from-reserve-to-exxon-five-other-firms-idUSKCN1LG2WT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Six companies, including ExxonMobil Corp, bought a total of 11
million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a Department of Energy
document showed on Friday, in a sale timed to take place ahead of U.S. sanctions on Iran that
are expected to remove oil from the global market.
Sale of the oil from the reserve was mandated by previous laws to fund the federal government
and to fund a drug program, but the Trump administration took the earliest available time to
sell the crude under the law.
The sale's timing "would appear to reflect President Donald Trump's concern regarding oil
market tightness associated with the reinstatement of Iran oil sanctions," analysts at
ClearView Energy Partners said after the sale was announced on August 20.
@Carlton Meyer A slight correction is needed here. The UK, Germany, Israel and France has
signed onto this.
Just as all four of them were more than willing to help smash Libya to dust so they could
steal their oil fields and all that gold Gaddafi had hoarded up for his independent gold back
African currency.
I think what is happening in Venezuela is not an isolated event. It is connected to a broad
"connect the dots" South American strategy. The other dots are:
1) Bolsonaro's election victory.
2) Changes in structural relationship with Argentina, Chile, Colombia.
3) Cuba isolation.
4) Bolivia isolation.
5) And finally the recent unexpected dam collapse in Brazil, followed by IDF's offer to fly
in hundreds of soldiers to help.
S America is about to become the next Middle East (Syria). Weapons proliferation. War
profiting. Mass scale disruption. Already a profound refugee crisis. And all the traditional
war hawks there – with IDF leading the charge.
"And, in effect, I wish for the success of Juan Guaido in his struggle with Maduro, and
I support American diplomatic and economic pressure on Maduro to step down. After all,
Venezuela is in our back yard with huge oil reserves."
So in effect, you wish for the success of the globalists in their relentless struggle with
the concept of national sovereignty and the rule of law, and you support American imperialist
efforts to overthrow yet another democratically elected government, no matter how many people
have to die in the process. After all, the victim country is relatively close and its huge
oil reserves make for a reasonable pretext.
Venezuela, the Deep State, and Subversion of the Trump Presidency
Also on UR, link to,
Bolton: We're Taking Venezuela's Oil
Yesterday, Trump's National Security Advisor John Bolton made the US position clear in a
FoxNews interview: Washington will overthrow the Venezuelan
RON PAUL LIBERTY REPORT
@Johnny Rico "How many barrels a day does Venezuela pump?"
Something like 50,000 barrels per day. And pumped is perhaps the wrong word more like mined.
Venezuelan oil is locked up in surface tar sands along the Orinoco River and of very low
quality, rich in metals such as vanadium which catalyze sulfur into sulfuric acid rotting out
engines and turbines if not cleaned up. It is actually sold as a emulsion with about 25%
water to get the stuff to flow. The Canadian tar sands now produce something like 500,000
barrels per day. Try driving through the Alberta tar sands to see mommie earth ravaged
without conscience and birds murdered en masse landing on their vast polluted effluent ponds
but then the loathsome colonial denizens of our Canadian satrap to the north don't care as
long as we let them have a couple of hockey teams and legal pot.
Whoever believed that Trump will drain the swamp must feel disappointed. The US foreign
policy is run by the swamp now, like it always was. The US uses full range of classical
gangster tactics against Venezuela: blackmail, theft of assets, threats, etc. The US tries to
instigate yet another "color revolution" to bring yet another puppet to power in yet another
country. The only difference is, Maduro resists. But that's the difference in the victim
country, not in DC.
@Tyrion 2 Venezuela is under US sanctions that substitute for a medieval siege, and
Venezuela's comprador ruling class are Wall Street loyalists, not nationalists. The US is
trying to starve the population of Venezuela and economically ruin them wherein a US puppet
gov't will enable predatory Americans to buy coveted resources on the cheap. This usurpation
of int'l law and criminality was pulled off by Obama-Nuland-Soros in Ukraine in 2014. The
majority of Venezuelan 'deplorables' who are bearing the brunt of US sanctions know well what
Uncle Sham's man-on-the-ground Guaido is up to, and have, hopefully, organized and armed
themselves with rifles to defend their lives and property from invaders.
@Amon It's possible that Venezuela will be another Libya. But I question whether the US
Imperialists could get away with weeks of saturation bombing on a country in the same
hemisphere, just to its south. I find it hard to believe that the rest of South America would
take this lying down. Then there's the presence of Russia and China, who both have
substantial investments in the country. Will they just sit on their hands too?
With its jungles and mountains, any US invasion would be more like Vietnam, I think. This
could be, and I hope it is, a Bridge Too Far for the Empire. Empires always eventually
overreach.
But, bbbuuuttt, I thought we were gonna be energy independent and export oil all over the
globe. What need have we of some heavy crude in Venezuela if this forecast is at hand? Just
hedging the BS ya know.
Maduro and Chavez are as socialist as I am capitalism fan. They are indeed populist dictators
and regime is still capitalistic. They just rely upon lumpens and military to hold onto
power. Things wound not change for the better and probably for worse if coup succeeds though.
Now, it is neither USA nor author's business to interfere into other countries affairs as
Americans quite obviously only make things worse and what if when USA finally kicks the
bucket as United country others start interfering in USA affairs ? I actually see it coming
considering demographic and cultural realities on the ground in USA. Once $usd is gone as
reserve currency the process as Gorbachiv stated would start.
Last week suddenly there was a coup d'etat in Venezuela,
actually the use of the term coup d'etat is incorrect. A coup occurs when the military
disposes the government and replaces it with a military government.
This has not yet occurred. It has not yet been successful, what is actually happening is
the beginning of a civil war, the outcome which is not clear.
The situation bears a certain similarity with the beginning of the Syrian civil War.
If it follows the Ukrainian scenario like what took place in 2014, then I would expect
some type of situation where foreign mercenaries are employed to create divisions in the
population, like firing on the opposition supporters. It is highly likely that some sort of
false flag incident will be use to fire up the situation.
If the military were to revolt and replace it with civilian rule it would be called a
pronunciamiento
Trump just congratulated self-proclaimed US puppet Guaido in Venezuela. So, he can no longer
pretend to be an innocent bystander: he showed himself to be a willing participant in the
criminal activities of the swamp.
Three notes on the bright side. One, the Empire is getting ever more reckless, no longer
bothers even with fig leaves. That looks like an overreach typical of empires in their death
throws. Two, Maduro, despite his obvious failings, appears to be prepared to defend his
country against banditry. So, maybe he is not just a piece of shit, like Yanuk in Ukraine.
We'll see soon enough. Three, Erdogan, who the same gangsters tried to overthrow not too long
ago, remembers that and voiced his support of Maduro in no uncertain terms, despite Turkey
being a NATO member.
"... In the meantime, the strategy for oil and gas executives to appease investors is to focus on "quick cash, quarterly payouts and fast talk," Sanzillo says. "Either way the stocks lack a long-term value rationale." ..."
"... Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. shale industry has been over-hyping the production potential from their wells. The WSJ compared well-productivity estimates from shale companies to those from third parties. After looking at the production data at thousands of wells and how much oil and gas those wells were on track to produce over the course of their lifespans, the WSJ found that company forecasts seemed to be misleading. ..."
"... Schlumberger, for instance, has reported that secondary shale wells near older wells in West Texas have been 30 percent less productive than the initial wells, the WSJ found. Also, many shale companies used data from their best wells and extrapolated forward, projecting enormous growth numbers that have not panned out. ..."
Of course, that is largely just a reflection of the sharp decline in oil prices. But the share prices of most oil and gas companies
are also largely based on oil price movements. So, the steep slide in oil prices in the final two months of 2018 led to disaster
for investors in energy stocks.
"The stock market went to hell in December. And when it got there, it found that the energy sector had already moved in, signed
a lease and decorated the place," Tom Sanzillo, Director of Finance at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
(IEEFA), wrote in a
commentary
.
The energy sector was at or near the bottom of the S&P 500 for the second year in a row, Sanzillo pointed out. And that was true
even within segments of the oil and gas industry. For instance, companies specializing in hydraulic fracturing fell by 30 percent,
while oil and gas supply companies lost 40 percent. "The fracking boom has produced a lot of oil and gas, but not much profit," Sanzillo
argued.
Looking forward, there are even larger hurdles, especially in the medium- to long-term. Oil demand growth is flat in developed
countries and slowing beginning to slow in China and elsewhere. The EV revolution is just getting started.
The last great hope for the oil industry is to pile into
petrochemicals
, as oil demand for transportation is headed for a peak. But profits in that sector could also prove elusive. "The industry's rush
to invest in petrochemicals to maintain demand for oil and gas is likely to continue, but the profit potential in this sector is
more limited than oil and gas exploration, and is likely to keep the energy sector at or near the bottom of the S&P 500," Sanzillo
concluded.
In the meantime, the strategy for oil and gas executives to appease investors is to focus on "quick cash, quarterly payouts
and fast talk," Sanzillo says. "Either way the stocks lack a long-term value rationale."
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. shale industry has been over-hyping the production potential from their
wells. The WSJ compared well-productivity estimates from shale companies to those from third parties. After looking at the production
data at thousands of wells and how much oil and gas those wells were on track to produce over the course of their lifespans, the
WSJ found that company forecasts seemed to be misleading.
"Two-thirds of projections made by the fracking companies between 2014 and 2017 in America's four hottest drilling regions appear
to have been overly optimistic, according to the analysis of some 16,000 wells operated by 29 of the biggest producers in oil basins
in Texas and North Dakota," reporters for the
WSJ wrote . "Collectively, the companies that made projections are on track to pump nearly 10% less oil and gas than they forecast
for those areas, according to the analysis of data from Rystad Energy AS, an energy consulting firm."
Schlumberger, for instance, has reported that secondary shale wells near older wells in West Texas have been 30 percent less
productive than the initial wells, the WSJ found. Also, many shale companies used data from their best wells and extrapolated forward,
projecting enormous growth numbers that have not panned out.
The upshot is that shale companies will have to step up spending in order to hit the promised production targets. However, so
many of them have struggled to turn a profit, and the recent downturn in oil prices has put even more pressure on them to rein in
costs.
That raises questions about the production potential not just from individual shale companies, but also from the U.S. as a whole.
The problem is that the lower average price of oil, the less capex are for the year. And that creates problems in two to three
years period.
As long as shale oil producers are capable to produce junk bond, they will continue extraction even in prize zone below $60,
where they can't recover the costs. Cheerleaders from IEA will continue to produced nice rising curves.
Rather than troubling you by disagreeing, Tom, may I request, instead, your
basis for selecting $70 as the point where the economy and oil producers meet? My method uses step-wise
accumulation of production, from lowest cost to highest cost, to reach the required 100 MMB/D of worldwide
total demand. The reputable numbers for that exercise suggest lower than $60/B. As Canadian Oil Sands producers
will confirm, the producer does not always cover his cost. So the $60 number is higher than the practical top.
(This explains why the actual average price over history is $40.)
The reality is that as long as you have spare
producing capacity, which we always do, that can produce oil at less than $10/B as your competition, you can
forget recovering your higher cost unless you can hoodwink the traders. Of course, the hoodwinked traders'
motto is "Fooled me once, shame on you! Fooled me twice, shame on me!
Nicely put, William.
The niggling thing about the $40 average price over history is that the bulk of the
easy, cheap oil appears to be extracted already. Low-hanging black oil fruit already harvested.
Which means that extraction costs will increase.
So... while $40 is historically accurate for oil, that number is not static, and
seems it must inevitably rise, as it becomes increasingly expensive to extract the black oil fruit from further up
the tree - easy pickings gone already.
U.S. Shale Oil pundits generally seem to agree that $50 or
so is the breakeven point for WTI region light tight oil. Removing existing and earlier compounded debts from the
equation, I reckon that sounds about correct. Add in debts though, and it's probably closer to $80.
If anybody here hasn't heard my hundreds of ad nauseum comments this
entire dang year about my
hope
for
$65 oil [Brent] for 2018 and my
hope
for
$70 oil [Brent] for 2019, please raise your hand, and I can
reiterate
yet again
.
Meanwhile, I'll gently remind that I already warned repeatedly this
year that $80 is simply not sustainable, and that the higher that oil goes above $70 then the harder the
eventual crash would likely be.
And over to the news, would everyone kindly lay off guzzling the pots
of coffee and
stop artificially panicking. Near as I can
tell,
$70
- ish oil for 2019 still seems about the right balance
between
the global economy and oil producers.
I hope
the current over-reaction on the
oil
price See Saw
will settle back to around $70 by end of
this year or early next year.
Just
my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.
hellenicshippingnews.com said yesterday , that the average
price for WTI had been $65 and $72 for Brent in year 2018 , with a high at 3rd October and low at 24th December
.
Overall , I would predict a lower average for 2019 , than for 2018 ; average
prices like during years 2015 and 2016 ($50) .
Opec+ might throttle supply , but if Iran sanctions will screw further ,
Opec+ will be able to push more oil onto the markets .
Venezuela might get online again , since I can't believe , that China and
Russia will stay neutral in regards to their investments .
Brazil will deliver more , and Mexico probably could reduce domestic oil
theft .
Canada is only capable to throttle production , due to authoritie's measures
, if drillers are left to heir own devices , the production in Canada will rise again .
Without any governmental regulations worldwide (International Socialism) oil
could cost even $20 and less .
Nevertheless , WTI and Brent likely are worth more than many crudes , since
they have short ways to their markets : The lower the transportation costs , the higher the oil price .
Electric Vehicles are still not yet deployed much , but in 10 years may make
up to 10% of cars in use worldwide .
Power-To-Gas and -To-Gasoline will likely become deployed in the next 10
years to come , increasing the pressure on crude oil prices .
If anybody here hasn't heard my hundreds of ad nauseum comments
this entire dang year about my
hope
for
$65 oil [Brent] for 2018 and my
hope
for
$70 oil [Brent] for 2019, please raise your hand, and I can
reiterate
yet again
.
Meanwhile, I'll gently remind that I already warned repeatedly
this year that $80 is simply not sustainable, and that the higher that oil goes above $70 then the
harder the eventual crash would likely be.
And over to the news, would everyone kindly lay off guzzling the
pots of coffee and
stop artificially panicking. Near
as I can tell,
$70
- ish oil for 2019 still seems about the right balance
between
the global economy and oil producers.
I
hope the current over-reaction on the
oil
price See Saw
will settle back to around $70 by
end of this year or early next year.
Just
my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.
What are your thoughts on the recent news regarding Shale wells drying fast
than they should...I read in WSJ.
Also, $70 doesn't looks that impossible too...yes.
Summer Driving Season and if and when a thaw between
U.S. and China's trade war....can certainly take oil to the said level.
Without any governmental regulations worldwide (International
Socialism) oil could cost even $20 and less
.
Oil could only cost $20, if Saudi Arabia decided to
supply the world with oil by itself - a large amount of our oil supply is from offshore Nigeria, Angola, Gulf
of Mexico (Mexico - USA), North Sea, Brazil, Oil sands, Oil shale, - these locations require $60 oil minimum.
Oil could only cost $20, if Saudi Arabia decided to supply the world
with oil by itself - a large amount of our oil supply is from offshore Nigeria, Angola, Gulf of Mexico
(Mexico - USA), North Sea, Brazil, Oil sands, Oil shale, - these locations require $60 oil minimum.
Well....Mr.
@William
Edwards
here have explained the pricing in a very cogent manner. I'd find the link of the discussion and
post it.here.
If you are buying oil indexes price of
oil is important. If you are buying stocks the question is, will prices go up or down on stocks. There are a
lot of companies that are making a profit at the lower prices. Furthermore there is a lot of companies with
significant cash on hand. They also have low P/E, some in single digits and others in low double digits.
Combine this with the fact that with a little research many of these stocks are rated sells or at best hold and
analysts are rating them as bearish or extremely bearish, there is a good opportunity for some significant
increase. Especially in a market that is still very high. Granted if the market tumbles again, it is hard to
go against the tide. Looks like there is a lot of money to be made in some of these stocks. Some of them will
assuredly be targets for bigger companies wanting to consolidate acreage, others wanting stronger positions in
the Permian, Eagle Ford and SCOOP/STACK plays. Over the next month and maybe 2 there will be a lot of money
made. There is also a lot of insider trading going on, such as the purchase of $4 million in CHK by an exec.
Not a fan of CHK but there are a lot of people who have made a lot of money on them in recent weeks. The
reality is oil prices probably won't plunge even if the stock market goes south in an ugly fashion again, and
with Saudis, Iran and reduction in rigs in the shale plays across America, market sentiment will probably carry
prices at least through mid-Feb. That is plenty of time for oil and gas stocks to claw back some gains based
on the big fall they have had. Just my thoughts after 40 years of working in and watching this industry.
If anybody here hasn't heard my hundreds of ad nauseum comments
this entire dang year about my
hope
for
$65 oil [Brent] for 2018 and my
hope
for
$70 oil [Brent] for 2019, please raise your hand, and I can
reiterate
yet again
.
Meanwhile, I'll gently remind that I already warned repeatedly
this year that $80 is simply not sustainable, and that the higher that oil goes above $70 then the
harder the eventual crash would likely be.
And over to the news, would everyone kindly lay off guzzling the
pots of coffee and
stop artificially panicking. Near
as I can tell,
$70
- ish oil for 2019 still seems about the right balance
between
the global economy and oil producers.
I
hope the current over-reaction on the
oil
price See Saw
will settle back to around $70 by
end of this year or early next year.
Just
my opinion; as always, you are free to disagree.
Rather than troubling you by disagreeing, Tom, may I
request, instead, your basis for selecting $70 as the point where the economy and oil producers meet? My method
uses step-wise accumulation of production, from lowest cost to highest cost, to reach the required 100 MMB/D of
worldwide total demand. The reputable numbers for that exercise suggest lower than $60/B. As Canadian Oil Sands
producers will confirm, the producer does not always cover his cost. So the $60 number is higher than the
practical top. (This explains why the actual average price over history is $40.) The reality is that as long as
you have spare producing capacity, which we always do, that can produce oil at less than $10/B as your
competition, you can forget recovering your higher cost unless you can hoodwink the traders. Of course, the
hoodwinked traders' motto is "Fooled me once, shame on you! Fooled me twice, shame on me!
Rather than troubling you by disagreeing, Tom, may I request, instead,
your basis for selecting $70 as the point where the economy and oil producers meet? My method uses
step-wise accumulation of production, from lowest cost to highest cost, to reach the required 100 MMB/D
of worldwide total demand. The reputable numbers for that exercise suggest lower than $60/B. As Canadian
Oil Sands producers will confirm, the producer does not always cover his cost. So the $60 number is
higher than the practical top. (This explains why the actual average price over history is $40.) The
reality is that as long as you have spare producing capacity, which we always do, that can produce oil at
less than $10/B as your competition, you can forget recovering your higher cost unless you can hoodwink
the traders. Of course, the hoodwinked traders' motto is "Fooled me once, shame on you! Fooled me twice,
shame on me!
Nicely put, William.
The niggling thing about the $40 average price over history is that the bulk
of the easy, cheap oil appears to be extracted already. Low-hanging black oil fruit already harvested.
Which means that extraction costs will increase.
So... while $40 is historically accurate for oil, that number is not static,
and seems it must inevitably rise, as it becomes increasingly expensive to extract the black oil fruit from
further up the tree - easy pickings gone already.
U.S. Shale Oil pundits generally seem to agree that $50
or so is the breakeven point for WTI region light tight oil. Removing existing and earlier compounded debts
from the equation, I reckon that sounds about correct. Add in debts though, and it's probably closer to $80.
The niggling thing about the $40 average price over history is that
the bulk of the easy, cheap oil appears to be extracted already. Low-hanging black oil fruit already
harvested.
Which means that extraction costs will increase.
So... while $40 is historically accurate for oil, that number is not
static, and seems it must inevitably rise, as it becomes increasingly expensive to extract the black oil
fruit from further up the tree - easy pickings gone already.
U.S. Shale Oil pundits generally seem to agree that $50 or so is the
breakeven point for WTI region light tight oil. Removing existing and earlier compounded debts from the
equation, I reckon that sounds about correct. Add in debts though, and it's probably closer to $80.
May I differ on one point? Low-hanging fruit is forever!
I do no know for sure, since my x-ray vision fails below 5000 ft, how much cheap oil lies below the Saudi (and
Iraq and Iranian) deserts. But I do know two things. 1) I have been told for forty years that the proven
reserves in Saudi Arabia are 300 Billion barrels. It has not changed even though 10,000,000 B/D are pumped out
continuously. But I do not have to know. I only need to know if it will ever run out. I am sure that it will
not. The oil under the desert will, someday, be worth no more than the sand that covers the desert. 2) Quantity
of reserves is like spare capacity. As long as there is enough, it matters not how much more than "enough"
exists. As long as the Middle East reserves are not running at full capacity and fully depleted, $10 oil will
be available. Must I remind you that the stone age did not run out of stones? Or the nuclear age run out of
uranium? Better replaces inferior.
China, India, Russia seen likely to take more Venezuelan oil
Tight market for heavy crude already a burden to some refiners
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Refiners in Texas and Louisiana would be hard hit by sanctions on Venezuelan crude under consideration at the
White House, a move that would leave U.S. oil companies struggling to find alternative supplies.
President Donald Trump recognized Juan Guaido as the interim president of Venezuela on Wednesday in the most
provocative move yet against the leftist regime of Nicolas Maduro. Maduro responded by breaking diplomatic
relations with the U.S., giving American diplomats 72 hours to leave the country.
The Trump administration has drafted a slate of sanctions but hasn't decided whether to deploy them, said people
familiar with the matter. Earlier this month, White House officials warned U.S. refiners that sanctions were being
considered, and advised them to seek alternative sources of heavy crude. Some U.S. refiners worried about
sanctions experimented with alternatives last year before ultimately returning to Venezuelan crude.
The hardest-hit would be Citgo Petroleum Corp., the refining arm of
Petroleos de Venezuela SA
, or PDVSA, the state-run oil company. Citgo imported the most Venezuelan crude in
the first 10 months of 2018, followed by Valero Energy Corp.
Royal Dutch Shell Plc
and
Phillips 66
haven't processed Venezuelan crude in their U.S. refineries since the U.S. imposed financial sanctions against
the country and PDVSA in August 2017. Marathon Petroleum Corp.,
Total SA
and
Motiva Enterprises LLC
cut intake by more than a half during that period, and as Venezuelan oil production slumped to the
lowest levels seen since the 1940s.
Oil companies have urged the Trump administration not to limit imports of Venezuelan oil, warning the action could
disadvantage Gulf and East Coast refiners designed to handle the country's heavy crude, while also causing gasoline prices to
rise.
"... That works out to be 320,000 barrels per day. Saudi production increased by 384,000 barrels per day during November. So Saudi's November increase was mostly just emptying their storage tanks. ..."
That works out to be 320,000 barrels per day. Saudi production increased by 384,000 barrels per day during November. So
Saudi's November increase was mostly just emptying their storage tanks.
And from looking at your chart, it looks like the 135,000 barrel per day increase in October was from the same source.
Saudi cuts start from a base of 10,633,000 barrels per day. That is almost their exact production in October. And your chart
shows Saudi inventories had been dropping for months. Saudi had obviously been preparing to "cut" production from a level of production
they reached by emptying their storage tanks.
OPEC released its Oil Market Report in recent days, which showed that the cartel slashed
output by 750,000 bpd in December – sharp reductions that came before the deal even went
into effect. Saudi Arabia led the way with 468,000 bpd in reductions, but its efforts were
aided by the involuntary losses from Iran (-159,000 bpd), Libya (-172,000 bpd) and Venezuela
(-33,000) bpd.
In fact, those three countries have accounted for massive output reductions over the past
two months. The OPEC+ deal is using October as a baseline, calling for 1.2 million barrels per
day (mb/d) in reductions, and the group is well on their way thanks to turmoil in just a few
countries. Over the course of November and December, Iran has lost 561,000 bpd, Libya has lost
190,000 bpd, and Venezuela's output fell by 58,000 bpd. Taken together, the involuntary outages
exceed 800,000 bpd.
But that probably does not not including possible "back channel" from the US government to
major banks which allow them to finance unprofitable oil extraction.
Notable quotes:
"... $70/b by the end of 2019 is very reasonable [estimate] and actually similar to many of the major banks. The $55/b average expectation of oil executives according to Dallas Fed is too low in my opinion. ..."
Agree, Rapier is very good. $70/b by the end of 2019 is very reasonable [estimate] and actually
similar to many of the major banks. The $55/b average expectation of oil executives according
to Dallas Fed is too low in my opinion. Rapier is spot on (within $5/b of being correct) imo.
Much depends on what ROI is acceptable for an oil company, if they require a 15% ROI, then
the average 2017 Permian Basin well (average cost full cycle assumed to be $9.5 million)
needs $66/b at refinery gate ($62/b at wellhead) to meet that hurdle, EUR is about 411
kb.
"... The news that the Saudis will cut even more production than specified in their recent pledge in hopes of raising world prices to $80 a barrel was an important part of last week's price jump. Hopes that the US and China would settle their trade dispute during on-going talks was also an important factor in the recent price jump. ..."
"... While the US economy has been bumping along nicely in recent months, the same is not true for the other major centers of economic power – China and Europe. ..."
Oil prices continued to climb last week and are now some $10 a barrel higher than they were
just before Christmas when recent lows were set. Prices now have retraced about 30 percent of
the $35 a barrel drop that took place between late September and late December. Part of the
recent price correction likely is due to technical factors such as closing out long positions
in the futures markets. The news that the Saudis will cut even more production than specified
in their recent pledge in hopes of raising world prices to $80 a barrel was an important part
of last week's price jump. Hopes that the US and China would settle their trade dispute during
on-going talks was also an important factor in the recent price jump.
Looming over the talk about OPEC+ production cuts and how fast US shale oil production might
grow are the prospects for the global economy. A major recession could drive the demand for oil
so low that even current prices would be difficult to maintain. While there have always been
people convinced that a major economic crash is in the offing, in recent weeks there has been a
noticeable increase in the number and stridency of these predictions.
While the US economy has been bumping along nicely in recent months, the same is not true
for the other major centers of economic power – China and Europe. The Washington Post
headlines that "Economic growth is slowing all around the world," citing declines in the equity
markets; sputtering German factories, and Chinese retail sales growing at their slowest pace in
15 years. Even Beijing is looking for its GDP to grow by 6-6.5 percent this year which is way
off from the heady days of double digits ten years ago.
Eurozone economic forecasts fell last Monday again after a survey of economists found that
GDP is expected to grow just below 1.6 percent this year, 0.4 percentage points lower than an
already conservative estimate from March. A new report from the World Bank, citing a variety of
data, including softening international trade and investment, ongoing trade tensions, and
financial turmoil concludes that "the outlook for the global economy in 2019 has darkened."
Among the darker forecasts for the future are those that speculate on a global depression on
the scale of the 1930s where GDPs fall by 10 to 25 percent. Others are saying that the global
economy may be approaching " The Limits to Growth " as discussed in the famous 1972
book.
... ... ...
Virendra Chauhan of Energy Aspects told CNBC last week that "$50 oil is not a level at which
US producers can generate cash flow and production growth, so we do expect a slowdown." In a
Bloomberg radio interview John Kilduff, founding partner of Again Capital Management, said "we
were getting into the zone where U.S. shale producers stop making money particularly when you
sort of add in all the costs, not just the pure say drilling and extraction. It's going to
start to get tough for them right now."
... ... ...
Iran : Iran's crude exports dropped to 1 million b/d in November from 2.5 million b/d
in April, taking exports back to where they stood during the 2012-2016 sanctions. According to
three companies that track Iranian exports, Tehran's crude shipments remained below 1 million
b/d in December and are unlikely to exceed that level in January. Tracking
... ... ...
Iraq : Baghdad posted its highest monthly export total to date in December and,
combined with Kurdistan, set a nationwide annual record of 4.15 million b/d -- more than
100,000 b/d above the previous record, set in December 2016. The government said on Friday it
is committed to the OPEC+ output-cutting deal and would keep its oil production at 4.513
million b/d for the first half of 2019
... ... ...
Saudi Arabia : According to OPEC officials, Saudi Arabia is planning to cut crude
exports to around 7.1 million b/d by the end of January in hopes of lifting oil prices above
$80 a barrel.
... ... ...
Libya: Tripoli plans to pump 2.1 million b/d of crude oil by 2021 if the security
situation improves, the chairman of the National Oil Corporation said last week. The plan would
represent a doubling of the current rate of production, which currently stands at 953,000
b/d.
... ... ....
4. Russia
Moscow has already lowered its oil output by around 30,000 b/d compared with October
volumes, which is used as the baseline under the latest OPEC/non-OPEC crude production
agreement. Russian energy minister Novak said Friday: "We are gradually lowering output; our
plan is that overall production in January will be 50,000 b/d less than in October."
"... Last year, oil production in Norway fell to 1.49 million barrels per day (bpd), down by 6.3 percent compared to the 1.59 million bpd production in 2017, the oil industry regulator, the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD), said in its annual report this week. Oil production this year is forecast to drop by another 4.7 percent from last year to reach in 2019 its lowest level in thirty years -- 1.42 million bpd, the NPD estimates show. ..."
"... However, the Norwegian oil regulator warned that "resource growth at this level is not sufficient to maintain production of oil and gas at a high level after 2025. Therefore, it is essential that more profitable resources are proven in the next few years." ..."
"... The industry's problem is that after Johan Sverdrup and Johan Castberg there haven't been major discoveries. ..."
Despite cost controls, increased efficiency, and higher activity offshore Norway, oil
production at Western Europe's largest oil producer fell in 2018 compared to 2017 and is
further expected to drop this year to its lowest level since 1988.
Last year, oil production in Norway fell to 1.49 million barrels per day (bpd), down by 6.3
percent compared to the 1.59 million bpd production in 2017, the oil industry regulator, the
Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD), said in its annual report this week. Oil
production this year is forecast to drop by another 4.7 percent from last year to reach in 2019
its lowest level in thirty years -- 1.42 million bpd, the NPD estimates show.
As bad as it sounds, this year's expected low production is not the worst news for the
Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) going forward.
Oil production is expected to jump in 2020 through 2023, thanks to the start up in late 2019
of Johan
Sverdrup -- the North Sea giant, as operator Equinor calls it. With expected resources of
2.1 billion -- 3.1 billion barrels of oil equivalent, Johan Sverdrup is one of the largest
discoveries on the NCS ever made. It will be one of the most important industrial projects in
Norway in the next 50 years, and at its peak, the project's production will account for 25
percent of Norway's total oil production, Equinor says.
The worst news for Norway's oil production, as things stand now, is that after Johan
Sverdrup and after Johan Castberg
in the Barents Sea scheduled for first oil in 2022, Norway doesn't have major oil discoveries
and projects to sustain its oil production after the middle of the 2020s.
The NPD
started warning last year that from the mid-2020s onward, production offshore Norway will
start to decline "so making new and large discoveries quickly is necessary for maintaining
production at the same level from the mid-2020s."
In the report this week, NPD Director General Bente Nyland said:
"The high level of exploration activity proves that the Norwegian Shelf is attractive.
That is good news! However, resource growth at this level is not sufficient to maintain a
high level of production after 2025. Therefore, more profitable resources must be proven, and
the clock is ticking".
Norwegian oil production in 2018 was expected to drop compared to the previous year, but the
decline "proved to be greater than expected," the NPD said, attributing part of the production
fall to the fact that some of the newer fields are more complex than previously assumed, and
certain other fields delivered below forecast, mainly because fewer wells were drilled than
expected.
In October 2018, Germany's Wintershall
warned that its Maria oil and gas field off Norway was not fully meeting expectations due
to issues with water injection. Those issues haven't been solved yet, NPD's Nyland told
Reuters this week.
Exploration activity in Norway considerably increased in 2018 compared to 2017, with 53
exploration wells spud, up by 17 wells compared to the previous year. Based on company plans,
this year's exploration activity is expected to remain high and around the 2018 number of wells
spud, the NPD says.
The key reasons for higher exploration activity have been reduced costs, higher oil prices
lifting exploration profitability, and new and improved seismic data on large parts of the
Shelf, the NPD noted.
However, the Norwegian oil regulator warned that "resource growth at this level is not
sufficient to maintain production of oil and gas at a high level after 2025. Therefore, it is
essential that more profitable resources are proven in the next few years."
Norway still holds a lot of oil under its Shelf, and those remaining resources could sustain
its oil and gas production for decades to come. The industry's problem is that after Johan
Sverdrup and Johan Castberg there haven't been major discoveries.
According to the NPD's resource estimate, nearly two-thirds of the undiscovered resources
lie in the Barents Sea.
"Therefore, this area will be important for maintaining production over the longer term,"
the regulator said.
Operators on the NCS have made great efforts to try to make even smaller discoveries
profitable by hooking them to existing platforms and production hubs. However, these smaller
finds alone can't offset maturing production -- Norway needs major oil discoveries, and it
needs them soon , considering that the lead time from discovery to production is several
years.
Chinese crude oil imports up +9.9% higher in full year 2018 compared to FY 2017.
The month of December up +29.9% higher than Dec 2017
2019-01-14 OilyticsData
Another big crude import number from China (2nd consecutive month of imports above 10 MMB/D).
Low oil prices and startup of mega refineries such as RongSheng and Hengli is helping to keep
these numbers near record levels.(Source; GAC China)
Chart https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Dw3fk2GXcAUZ_Vu.jpg
Oilytics https://twitter.com/OilyticsData
"... All of these oil-weighted stocks are part of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF ( XOP ). They have production mixes of at least 60.0% in liquids based on their latest quarterly production data. Liquids include crude oil, condensates, and natural gas liquids. ..."
The following oil-weighted stocks could be the most sensitive to US crude oil's movements. They might be impacted the most by
oil's price movement based on their correlations with US crude oil active futures in the trailing week:
In the trailing week, US crude oil active futures rose 12.5%. Occidental Petroleum was the third-largest gainer on our list of
oil-weighted stocks. The top gainers, Callon Petroleum ( CPE
) and Whiting Petroleum ( WLL ) rose 30.5% and 20.6%,
respectively, in the trailing week despite having a mild negative correlation with oil prices. The trade talks between the US and
China might have caused these stocks to increase. In the previous part, we discussed that easing trade war concerns might be behind
the rise in oil prices. ConocoPhillips had the highest correlation with oil. ConocoPhillips has risen 4.8% -- the lowest among our
selected oil-weighted stocks.
All of these oil-weighted stocks are part of the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (
XOP ). They have production mixes of at least 60.0% in liquids
based on their latest quarterly production data. Liquids include crude oil, condensates, and natural gas liquids.
Questionable, but still interesting perspective. Ignore marketing crap -- clearly there is marketing push within this presentation
-- she wants your subscriptions. "This is Main Street vs Wall Street" dichotomy sounds plausible. Neoliberalism is, in essence, is the
restoration of power of financial oligarchy.
But the idea of secret open bailout might explain why shale oil became so prominent despite high cost of producing it: Wall Street
was subsidised via backchannels for bringing price downand supporting shale companies by the US goverment
$21 trillion in "missing money" at the DOD and HUD that was discovered by Dr. Mark Skidmore and Catherine Austin Fitts in 2017
has now become a national security issue. The federal government is not talking or answering questions, even though the DOD recently
failed its first ever audit.
Fitts says, "This is basically an open running bailout. Under this structure, you can transfer assets out of the federal government
into private ownership, and nobody will know and nobody can stop it. There is no oversight whatsoever. You can't even know who is
doing it. I'm telling you they just took the United States government, they just changed the governance model by accounting policy
to a fascist government. If you are an investor, you don't know who owns those assets, and there is no evidence that you do. . .
. If the law says you have to produce audited financial statements and you refuse to do so for 20 years, and then when somebody calls
you on it, you proceed to change the accounting laws that say you can now run secret books for all the agencies and over 100 related
entities."
In closing, Fitts says, "We cannot sit around and passively depend on a guy we elected President. The President cannot fix this.
We need to fix this. . . . This is Main Street versus Wall Street. This is honest books versus dirty books. If you want the United
States in 10 years to resemble anything what it looked like 20 years ago, you are going to have to do it, and there is no one else
who can do it. You have to first get the intelligence to know what is happening."
Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with Catherine Austin Fitts, Publisher of "The Solari Report." Donations:
https://usawatchdog.com/donations/
Greg, with all due respect I don't you understand what CAF is saying. Forget about a dollar reset. The fascists, using
the Treasury, Exchange Stabilization Fund, HUD, DOD and any agency they choose, have turned the US government into a gigantic
money laundering operation. And they maintain two sets of books - the public numbers are a complete sham. Any paper assets held
by private citizens are not secure, are likely rehypothecated, and when convenient can be frozen or siezed by these fascists in
Washington. There is no limit to how many dollars the FED can create secretly and funnel out through the ESF/Treasury to prop
up and bail out any bank, black ops, pet project, mercenary army or paper assets they choose. The missing $21 trillion is probably
a drop in the bucket as there is no audit and no honest books for us to examine. In sum, all paper asset pricing in dollars is
a fraud and a sham. Any paper assets you think you own, whether it be stocks, bonds, or real estate are pure illusion: they can
be repriced or stolen at any time; in reality, you own nothing. To the man and woman on the street I say this: get out of paper,
get out of these markets and convert to tangibles in your physical possession - and do it secretly and privately, avoid insurances,
records, paper trails. This mass defrauding of the American people by this corrupt government in Washington will come crashing
down when the US dollar is displaced from reserve status; this is what China and Russia and the BRICS are setting the stage for:
world trade without the US dollar. When this happens, your dollars will become virtual toilet paper and all of your paper assets
will go poof.
"We have to fix this". Ok how does the individual fix this? Private armies are running around doing whatever private armies
do and I, the one man, is suppose to fix this. Please, will someone tell us what we are suppose to do, specific instructions not
a mix of large words that say " we must fix this", damn, we need a leader. Greg you ask almost every person you interview what
the middle class should be doing to protect themselves and you never get a "real" answer, just a dance around. Also you ask numerous
people what this coming change is going to look like and again, just silence or dance music, no answers. Damn we need a leader.
Your trying very hard to give us information that will help us weather the coming storm, so thank you for all you do, and you
do more than anyone else out there.
Question, why in part do I feel I am being lied to? Is it subscription hustle or is it, don't you believe your lying eyes!
Without knowing exactly what is what, anyone who would've watched Herbert Walker Bush's funeral with reactions from those who
received cards, whether they be Bush family, the Clintons, the Obamas and entourage. Jeb Bush went from being proud and patriotic
to panic like the funeral that he was at was for the whole family.
Joe Biden looked like he had a major personal accident and no way to get to the bathroom for cleanup.
George W. Bush after being asked a question, of which the answer was, "Yep" then proceeded to appear resigned and stoic! What
ever was on those cards essentially amounted to, for all those receiving a card, "the gig is up" and it appears they all damn
well knew it.
So, Catherine Austin Fitts, explain your, "Trump is colluding with the Bushies," I would say, that Canary in this mine of inquiry
is dead. I'm just an old disabled Vietnam vet of plebeian background and certainly not a revolving door Washington DC Beltway
patrician, so any explanation needs to be delivered in slow, logical step-by-step progression for I have not mastered the art
of selling the sizzle in hopes that the dupes will later pay for the steak. I prefer, Greg, when you actually get more combative
with Ms. Fitts. Make America, great again and do so, in the name of the Lord Jesus Christ, Amen.
35 min: Fitts gives a great synopsis of the problem. She never deviates in all of her interviews. greg doesn't seem to understand
at all. She repeats herself MULTIPLE TIMES and greg is still asking the same irrelevant PREPPER questions. IT DOES NOT MATTER
WHAT ASSETS YOU HOLD GREG, AND THAT INCLUDES GOLD!!!! WHEN YOU'RE EXISTING IN A TYRANNICAL SYSTEM THAT STEALS AT WILL FROM ITS'
CONSTITUENCY YOU CAN'T actually OWN ANYTHING!!!! lord! only so many ways to say
She lost credibility when she said Trump has "made a deal with the Bushes." That defies logic. The Bushes made a deal with
Trump! Trump has gained full control of the military with a $ 1 1/2 trillion war chest. Trump and Putin are putting the China
toothpaste back in the tube.
This woman clearly knows nothing about the plan..she has not even mentioned that the world bank president has resigned who
was appointed by obumma. And that is HUGE. She was in government in the corruption, but she doesn't know how things will be fixed..she's
not in that loop of current things in the new reset..shes coming from her own perceptions
This woman always make me sick to my stomach. She comes out and says a bunch of scary stuff and offers no solution. If it's
too much for just one person, then we the people need to take control. We don't need a central bank. We need local and state banks
like the Bank of North Dakota then we can migrate over to them and then shut down the Fed.
2019-01-11 (Bloomberg) Saudi and Canadian cuts are leaving world hungry for heavy crude
Refiners along the Gulf Coast and in the Midwest invested billions of dollars in cokers and
other heavy-oil processing units over the past three decades anticipating supplies of light
oil would become scarce while heavy crude from Canada's oil sands, Venezuela and Mexico would
grow. Instead, the opposite occurred.
The shale revolution, as well as new offshore supplies form Brazil and West Africa, caused a
surge of light oil, while supplies from Venezuela to Mexico declined. Canada's growth has
been stymied by delays in getting new pipelines built.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/saudi-and-canadian-cuts-are-leaving-world-hungry-for-heavy-crude-1.1197259
India – Consumption of Petroleum Products (Without LPG or PetCoke)(kt/day)
December 2018 up +7.01% higher than December 2017
Average full year 2018 up +6.80% higher than full year 2017
Chart https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DwoYp5xWsAA_vRh.jpg
India Light Distillates Consumption (shown in chart)
Average full year 2018 up +9.74% higher than full year 2017
Chart https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DwoY_yjX4AA-S9K.jpg
India Middle Distillates Consumption
Average full year 2018 up +3.92% higher than full year 2017
ABU DHABI (Reuters) - United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said on
Saturday the average oil price in 2018 was $70 a barrel.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other leading global oil producers
led by Russia agreed in December to cut their combined oil output by 1.2 million barrels per
day to balance the oil market starting from January.
"Today we look at an average year of around $70 for Brent," Mazrouei told an industry news
conference in Abu Dhabi, adding that this level would help encourage global oil investments. An
energy ministry spokesman said the minister was referring to the average oil price in 2018.
Same source of info which is the Dallas Fed. Only, this one discusses costs more. As, was
discussed here, previously, WTI needs to be closer to $70 barrel to induce interest.
I especially like the phase "This directive was particularly surprising in the context of
Canada's free market economy" That's really deep understanding of the situation ;-) . It is so
difficult to understand that Canada as a large oil producer, needs higher oil prices and it does
not make sense from the point of market economy to pollute the environment and at the same time
lose money in the process ?
Notable quotes:
"... Alberta's oil production has been cut 8.7 percent according to the mandate set by the province's government under Rachel Notley with the objective of cutting out around 325,000 barrels per day from the Canadian market. ..."
"... So far, the government-imposed productive caps have been extremely successful. In October Canadian oil prices were so depressed that the Canadian benchmark oil Western Canadian Select (WCS) was trading at a whopping $50 per barrel less than United States benchmark oil West Texas Intermediate (WTI). now, in the wake of production cuts, the price gap between WCS and WTI has diminished by a dramatic margin to a difference of just under $13 per barrel. ..."
"... The current production caps in Canada are only intended to last through the middle of this year, at which point Canadian oil companies will be permitted to decrease their cutbacks to just 95,000 barrels per day fewer than the numbers from November 2018's production rates. ..."
In an attempt to combat a ballooning oil glut and dramatically plummeting prices, the
premier of Alberta Rachel Notley introduced an unprecedented measure at the beginning of
December when she is mandating that oil companies in her province cut production. This
directive was particularly surprising in the context of Canada's free market economy, where oil
production is rarely so directly regulated.
Canada's recent oil glut woes are not due to a lack of demand, but rather a severe lack of
pipeline infrastructure. There is plenty of demand, and more than enough supply, but no way to
get the oil flowing where it needs to go. Canada's pipelines are running at maximum capacity,
storage facilities are filled to bursting, and the pipeline bottleneck has only continued to
worsen .
Now, in an effort to alleviate the struggling industry, Alberta's oil production has been
cut 8.7 percent according to the mandate set by the province's government under Rachel Notley
with the objective of cutting out around 325,000 barrels per day from the Canadian
market.
Even before the government stepped in, some private oil companies had already self-imposed
production caps in order to combat the ever-expanding glut and bottomed-out oil prices. Cenovus
Energy, Canadian Natural Resource, Devon Energy, Athabasca Oil, and others announced
curtailments that totaled around 140,000 barrels a day and Cenovus Energy, one of Canada's
major producers, even went so far as to plead with the government to impose production caps
late last year.
So far, the government-imposed productive caps have been extremely successful. In
October Canadian oil prices were so depressed that the Canadian benchmark oil Western Canadian
Select (WCS)
was trading at a whopping $50 per barrel less than United States benchmark oil West Texas
Intermediate (WTI). now, in the wake of production cuts, the price gap between WCS and WTI has
diminished by a dramatic margin to a difference of just under $13 per barrel.
While on the surface this would seem to be a roundly glowing review of the production caps
in Alberta, production cuts are not a long-term solution for Canada's oil glut woes. The
current production caps in Canada are only intended to last through the middle of this year, at
which point Canadian oil companies will be permitted to decrease their cutbacks to just 95,000
barrels per day fewer than the numbers from November 2018's production rates. The cuts are
a just a treatment, not a cure, for oversupply in Alberta. The problem needs to be addressed at
its source--the pipelines.
Unfortunately, the pipeline shortage in Alberta has no quick and easy fix. While there are
multiple major pipeline projects underway, the two largest, the Keystone XL pipeline and the
Trans Mountain pipeline, are stalled indefinitely thanks to legal woes and seemingly endless
litigation. The Enbridge Line 3 pipeline, intended to replace one of the region's already
existing pipelines, is currently under construction and
projected to be up and running by the end of the year, but will not go a long way toward
fixing the bottleneck.
Even if the Albertan government re-evaluates the present mid-2019 expiration date for the
current stricter production cuts, extending the production caps could have enduring negative
consequences in the region's oil industry. Keeping a long-term cap on production in Alberta
would potentially discourage investment in future production as well as in the infrastructure
the local industry so sorely needs. According to some
reporting , the cuts will not be able to control the gap between Canadian and U.S. oil for
much longer anyway, just another downside to drawing out what should be a short-term solution.
The government will need to weigh the possible outcomes very carefully as the expiration date
approaches, when the and the pipeline shortage is still a long way from being solved and the
price of oil remains dangerously variable.
Notwithstanding recent
oil-price volatility , spending on offshore oilfield services will rise by 6 percent in 2019 reaching $208 billion, before surging
by another 14 percent in 2020, according to Norwegian consultancy
Rystad Energy AS . That's after almost halving since 2014.
"... It makes sense for Saudi Arabia to focus its cuts on sales to the U.S., the only country that publishes detailed weekly data on oil imports and inventory levels -- traders watch the reports closely. This means the reductions will be evident more quickly than would similar cuts to other destinations, so a drop in American imports should have a much more immediate impact on price expectations. ..."
There's already less Saudi crude oil getting loaded for export.
The list of things that President Donald Trump criticizes in his tweets varies from one day to the next. He may soon have to direct
his ire to oil prices and the actions of his ally, Saudi Arabia, once again.
The desert kingdom is already making good on its promise to slash supply, and the initial evidence suggests that the biggest cut
is being made in deliveries to the U.S. On top of that, the price it charges American buyers of its crude has been raised to near
record levels for cargoes to be shipped in February. That could be bad news for a president who just celebrated falling gas prices.
The OPEC+ group of countries met in December and,
after Russia took the reins
, eventually agreed to cut supplies by 1.2 million barrels a day from January. For Saudi Arabia,
that meant cutting production to just over 10.3 million, but it pledged to go further -- oil minister Khalid Al-Falih told reporters
and analysts that it would be slashed to 10.2 million barrels a day in January.
The first job was to unwind the output surge made in November that had helped to deliver the price drop hailed by Trump. That
was done last month. Saudi production in December was back below the October baseline used for its (and most other countries') promised
cuts.
Saudi Cuts
Saudi crude production was cut to 10.65 million barrels a day in December from a record 11.07 million in November
That couldn't have been what Trump wanted, given what he tweeted the day before OPEC began its meeting in Vienna -- at the time,
crude prices were in the midst of their worst quarterly decline in four years.
Bloomberg's tracking of crude exports from
Saudi Arabia indicates that the biggest drop in flows from the kingdom was in the volume heading for the U.S. Shipments to ports
on the Atlantic, Gulf and West coasts fell by nearly 60 percent between November and December to just over 350,000 barrels a day.
That's the lowest since Bloomberg started tracking these flows in January 2017.
Cutting Shipments
The flow of Saudi crude heading to the U.S. slumped last month, as the kingdom slashed output
The size of the drop isn't set in stone -- a small number of ships signaling that they are heading for the Suez Canal or Singapore
could eventually go to the U.S. Even so, a decline in Saudi crude shipments to American ports should start to show up in lower deliveries
after about six weeks. By mid-February, U.S. imports of the kingdom's oil could fall to the lowest in more than 30 years, according
to data from the Department of Energy. The last time the flow from Saudi to the U.S. fell below half a million barrels a day was
in the mid-1980s, after the kingdom slashed its production by 80 percent over four years in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to
prop up oil prices.
Slowing The Flow
Imports of Saudi crude into the U.S. could soon fall to their lowest in more than 30 years
It's not just this volume decline that is going to rile Trump. The price of that oil isn't going to make him happy either.
Saudi Arabia sets its crude prices a month in advance of it being loaded at its export terminals, so it has just published its
price list for February. In common with other producers, it does not set an outright price, but rather a differential to regional
benchmarks for each export grade and each market area.
Price differentials for U.S. buyers have been going up since August and for most grades are now close to record levels. Saudi
heavy crude, which is the closest alternative to dwindling supplies from Venezuela and Mexico, is the most expensive it's been since
2009 in relative terms.
Price Rises
Saudi crude prices for U.S. buyers have risen to near record levels against the regional benchmark
It makes sense for Saudi Arabia to focus its cuts on sales to the U.S., the only country that publishes detailed weekly data on
oil imports and inventory levels -- traders watch the reports closely. This means the reductions will be evident more quickly than
would similar cuts to other destinations, so a drop in American imports should have a much more immediate impact on price expectations.
There is no reason to doubt that Al-Falih will do what he said in Vienna. It was only after slashing exports to the U.S. in July
2017 that oil prices really began to recover, and Saudi Arabia will be hoping for a similar impact this time, too. But don't be surprised
if that also unleashes angry tweets from the U.S. president.
Julian Lee is an oil strategist for Bloomberg First Word. Previously he worked as a senior analyst at the Centre for Global Energy
Studies.
"... The EIA weekly reports are a joke with zero movements for crude inventory for last 2 weeks. And an adjustment factor that nobody understands. Maybe the government shutdown has some influence after all. ..."
It is all a big illusion that oil is cheap like water in my opinion. To manipulate the market
down will only make for more volatility in the future, and it is a good a bet as when the oil
price fell to 30 dollars/b in 2016 that prices will eventually rise again from this level.
It has do with that the tanking of oil prices is out of the usual cycle in the industry
(low investments makes for less oil after 3+ years).
I have started to bet on oil prices going up again even more for the fun of it (a few bets
made too early I have to admit) and now I put some meaningful amount of money in it; to make
it even more fun hopefully.
The EIA weekly reports are a joke with zero movements for crude inventory for last 2
weeks. And an adjustment factor that nobody understands. Maybe the government shutdown has
some influence after all.
To build a wall against the tide water is an illustration of how successful it will be to
keep the oil prices down with illusional data alone. And I stand by that a recession based on
"fear" news alone is fake, but can of course in the end become a self fulfilling
prophecy.
And [there is] the real fear is inflation based on too high oil prices. Extensive tariffs
to hinder trade will also never help prosperity, but it remains to be seen if threats are
made real or if the policy at some point will be revoked.
You guys insist on continuing to think money isn't created from thin air by the Fed and
actually means something in the context of a substance that feeds you food. If you have to
have it, and you do have to have it, things will be done for you to get it. Borrowed money
that was created from thin air . . . who cares if you can't pay it back? You have to eat.
Consumption of oil is up. OPEC and Russia have reduced output. The price falls, because
there is no meaning to anything created from thin air when applied to something that depends
on physics.
You won't know anything until you find yourself sitting in a line waiting for gasoline.
You won't see it coming. You won't predict it. It will just happen someday.
Some truth to that Watcher. Simplistic thinking in investors. If we aren't making much money,
the US won't be making much money, so the price of oil must go lower. Not just simplistic,
flat out stupid.
And the number of people who think oil supply is limited is fairly scarce in relation to
the population as a whole. Probably less than the number of people who think chocolate milk
comes from brown cows.
On Friday, Bloomberg said
that many of the world's largest banks are forecasting a rebound in oil prices next year as
fears of a recession prove misplaced.
According to a Bloomberg survey of oil analysts, Brent will average $70 a barrel in 2019,
almost a third higher than its price on Thursday. Michael Cohen, head of energy and commodities
research at Barclays Plc in New York, said "we could even see something similar to a V-shaped
recovery next year, on two very important conditions. One, that the reduction in OPEC exports
leads to a reduction in inventories. And two, that we don't see a further deterioration in
macroeconomic conditions."
The Bloomberg report added that despite a recent darkening outlook for the global economy
amid prolonged trade disputes between the U.S. and China, and as the U.S. Federal Reserve
embarks on tightening monetary policy, most commentators aren't seeing an actual recession
biting the oil market next year. The median forecast of 24 oil analysts in the Bloomberg survey
projects that Brent crude futures will average exactly $70 a barrel in 2019. The price on
Thursday was about $53.50 while the average so far in 2018 has been about $72. Meanwhile, the
median forecast for WTI is $61.13. WTI futures traded at about $45.27 on Monday.
America is now the largest producer of oil in the world. For the U.S., this is great news as
the dream of energy independence grows and maybe one day we can tell OPEC to go take a
hike.
However, while the shale oil revolution has helped change the energy landscape forever, we
cannot take shale for granted. We can't just assume that the industry can withstand any price
and that production can keep rising despite the market conditions. We can't assume that shale
oil producers can match OPEC production cuts barrel for barrel.
We also can't assume OPEC, weakened by falling prices of late, won't strike back like they
did in 2014. That's when OPEC declared a production war on U.S. shale producers. The then de
facto head of the OPEC Cartel Ali al-Naimi spoke about market share rivalry with the United
States and said that they wanted a battle with the U.S. There were no winners in that
production war. Ali al-Naimi was sacked as he almost bankrupted Saudi Arabia. It took its toll
on U.S. producers as well, as many were forced into bankruptcy despite making significant
progress on efficiency and cost cutting.
With 2019 underway, OPEC, along with Russia, agreed to remove 1.2 million barrels per day
off the market for the first six months of the year. Early reports on OPEC compliance to the
agreed upon production cuts is overwhelming at a time when there are new questions about how
shale oil producers are faring after this recent oil price drop.
Private forecasters are showing that there are major cuts in Saudi exports and even signs
that OPEC production is falling sharply. Bloomberg News confirmed that by reporting "observed
crude exports from Saudi Arabia fell to 7.253 million barrels per day in December on lower
flows to the U.S. and China." Furthermore, other private trackers believe that the drop may be
the biggest in exports since Bloomberg began tracking shipments in early 2017. Oil saw another
boost after Bloomberg reported that OPEC oil production had the biggest monthly drop in two
years falling by 530,000 barrels a day to 32.6 million a day last month. It's the sharpest
pullback since January 2017.
Rewind to 2017, there was talk that shale oil producers would make up the difference and the
cut would not matter, but that was proven wrong. This time expect the same because it is likely
that shale oil producers may have to cut back as the sharp price drop has put them in a bad
position. The Wall Street Journal pointed out that, even now, some shale oil wells are not
producing as much oil as expected. This coupled with a large declining production rate in shale
swells means that they need capital to keep drilling to keep those record production numbers
moving higher. "Two-thirds of projections made by the fracking companies between 2014 and 2017
in America's four hottest drilling regions appear to have been overly optimistic, according to
the analysis of some 16,000 wells operated by 29 of the biggest producers in oil basins in
Texas and North Dakota. Collectively, the companies that made projections are on track to pump
nearly 10% less oil and gas than they forecast for those areas, according to the analysis of
data from Rystad Energy AS, an energy consulting firm. That is the equivalent of almost one
billion barrels of oil and gas over 30 years, worth more than $30 billion at current prices.
Some companies are off track by more than 50% in certain regions" the Journal reported.
"While U.S. output rose to an all-time high of 11.5 million barrels a day, shaking up the
geopolitical balance by putting U.S. production on par with Saudi Arabia and Russia. The
Journal's findings suggest current production levels may be hard to sustain without greater
spending, because operators will have to drill more wells to meet growth targets. Yet shale
drillers, most of whom have yet to consistently make money, are under pressure to cut spending
in the face of a 40% crude-oil price decline since October."
Of course, none of this matters if we see a prolonged slowdown in the global economy, Demand
may indeed turn out to be the great equalizer. Yet if growth comes back, say if we get a China
trade deal or if they ever reopen the U.S. government, we will most likely see a very tight
market in the new year. The OPEC cuts will lead to a big drawdown in supply and shale oil
producers will find it hard to match OPEC and demand growth barrel for barrel.
OPEC oil supply fell by 460,000 barrels per day (bpd) between November and December, to
32.68 million bpd, a Reuters survey found on Thursday, as top exporter Saudi Arabia made an
early start to a supply-limiting accord, while Iran and Libya posted involuntary declines.
OPEC, Russia and other non-members - an alliance known as OPEC+ - agreed last December to
reduce supply by 1.2 million bpd in 2019 versus October 2018 levels. OPEC's share of that cut
is 800,000 bpd.
"If OPEC is faithful to its agreed output cut together with non-OPEC partners, it would take
3-4 months to mop up the excess inventories," energy consultancy FGE said.
"... Ever since US Crude Oil peaked its production in 1970, the US has known that at some point the oil majors would have their profitability damaged, "assets" downgraded, and borrowing capacity destroyed. At this point their shares would become worthless and they would become bankrupt. The contagion from this would spread to transport businesses, plastics manufacture, herbicides and pesticide production and a total collapse of Industrial Civilisation. ..."
@4 "For the life of me I cannot figure why Americans want a war/conflict with
Russia."
Ever since US Crude Oil peaked its production in 1970, the US has known that at some
point the oil majors would have their profitability damaged, "assets" downgraded, and
borrowing capacity destroyed. At this point their shares would become worthless and they
would become bankrupt. The contagion from this would spread to transport businesses, plastics
manufacture, herbicides and pesticide production and a total collapse of Industrial
Civilisation.
In anticipation of increasing Crude Oil imports, Nixon stopped the convertibility of
Dollars into Gold, thus making the Dollar entirely fiat, allowing them to print as much of
the currency as they needed.
They also began a system of obscuring oil production data, involving the DoE's EIA and the
OECD's IEA, by inventing an ever-increasing category of Undiscovered Oilfields in their
predictions, and combining Crude Oil and Condensate (from gas fields) into one category (C+C)
as if they were the same thing. As well the support of the ethanol-from-corn industry began,
even though it was uneconomic. The Global Warming problem had to be debunked, despite its
sound scientific basis. Energy-intensive manufacturing work was off-shored to cheap
labour+energy countries, and Just-in-Time delivery systems were honed.
In 2004 the price of Crude Oil rose from $28 /barrel up to $143 /b in mid-2008. This
demonstrated that there is a limit to how much business can pay for oil (around $100 /b).
Fracking became marginally economic at these prices, but the frackers never made a profit as
over-production meant prices fell to about $60 /b. The Government encourages this destructive
industry despite the fact it doesn't make any money, because the alternative is the end of
Industrial Civilisation.
Eventually though, there must come a time when there is not enough oil to power all the
cars and trucks, bulldozers, farm tractors, airplanes and ships, as well as manufacture all
the wind turbines and solar panels and electric vehicles, as well as the upgraded
transmission grid. At that point, the game will be up, and it will be time for WW3. So we
need to line up some really big enemies, and develop lots of reasons to hate them.
Thus you see the demonisation of Russia, China, Iran and Venezuela for reasons that don't
make sense from a normal perspective.
It is partially tied direct to the economy of the warmongers as trillions of dollars of
new cold war slop is laying on the ground awaiting the MICC hogs. American hegemony is
primarily about stealing the natural resources of helpless countries. Now in control of all
the weak ones, it is time to move to the really big prize: The massive resources of Russia.
They (US and their European Lackeys) thought this was a slam dunk when Yeltsin, in his
drunken stupors, was literally giving Russia to invading capitalist. Enter Putin, stopped the
looting .........connect the dots.
Russia is not as desperate for higher oil prices as is Saudi Arabia. There are a few reasons
for this. One of the key reasons is that the Russian currency is flexible, so it weakens when
oil prices fall. That cushions the blow during a downturn, allowing Russian oil companies to
pay expenses in weaker rubles while still taking in U.S. dollars for oil sales. Second, tax
payments for Russian oil companies are structured in such a way that their tax burden is
lighter with lower oil prices.
Saudi Arabia needs oil prices at roughly $84 per barrel for its
budget to breakeven.
... ... ...
Igor Sechin, the head of Russia's state-owned Rosneft, said that oil prices "should have
stabilized, because everyone was supposed to be scared" by the enormous OPEC+ production cuts.
"But nobody was scared," he said, according to Bloomberg. He blamed the Federal Reserve's rate
tightening for injecting volatility into the oil market, because traders have sold off
speculative positions in the face of higher interest rates.
...
Novak
offered the market some assurances that the OPEC+ coalition would step in to stabilize the
market if the situation deteriorates, suggesting that OPEC+ has the ability to call an
extraordinary meeting. He
told reporters on Thursday that the market still faces a lot of unknowns. "All these
uncertainties, which are now on the market: how China will behave, how India will behave...
trade wars and unpredictability on the part of the U.S. administration... those are defining
factors for price volatility," Novak said.
Nevertheless, Novak predicted the 1.2 mb/d cuts announced in Vienna would be sufficient.
Some analysts echo Novak's sentiment that, despite the current panic in the market, the cuts
should be sufficient. "We are looking at oil prices heading towards $70 to $80 quite a recovery
in 2019. That's really predicated on the thought that first of all, OPEC still is here. And I
think that the market is underestimating that they are going to cut supply by 1.2 mb/d,"
Dominic Schnider of UBS Wealth Management told CNBC
. "And demand looks healthy so we might find ourselves into 2019 in a situation where the
market is actually tight."
Hedge funds are keeping their cool in the most tumultuous end of the year for oil since the
2008 financial crisis, betting on better days ahead.
They boosted wagers on rising Brent prices for a third straight week amid expectations that
OPEC and allies will follow through on a deal to reduce output. The vote of confidence comes
against a backdrop of turmoil in financial markets that saw one measure of oil-price volatility
jump the most on record in November and head for its highest year-end level in a decade.
"There is a little more optimism and neutrality coming into markets and we're getting some
positive signs," said Ashley Petersen, an oil analyst at Stratas Advisors LLC in New York.
"It's not as if demand is tanking tomorrow and supply is going to triple. We're seeing a little
more rationale enter markets, a little more of a wait-and-see mode."
Although the global crude benchmark has declined about 15 percent since OPEC and its allies
came together and announced an agreement to reduce output on Dec. 7 -- extending its plunge
since early October to 40 percent -- producers have signaled dedication to the deal.
OPEC and its allies aim to publish a statement in January on the
implementation of the agreement to cut production, according to Russia's Energy Minister
Alexander Novak. He also said the market may see the impact of the cuts in January or February,
and if necessary, the group can convene before its scheduled meeting in April. At the
same time, a decline in Iranian imports to Japan adds another positive sign .
Hedge funds' net-long position -- the difference
between bets on higher Brent prices and wagers on a drop -- rose 6.7 percent to 162,249
contracts for the six days ended Dec. 24, ICE Futures Europe data show. Longs rose, while
shorts declined to the lowest level since late November. The report was for a period shorter
than a week because of the Christmas holiday.
Analysts
surveyed by Bloomberg forecast Brent to average $70 a barrel in 2019 as the market
tightens, OPEC's supply cuts take effect and unintended losses in Venezuela and Iran
increase.
So far, the apparent confidence from hedge funds and analysts hasn't yet translated into a
calmer market. After surging a record 86 percent in November, the Chicago Board Options
Exchange Oil Volatility Index ended Friday at 53.11. The last time it finished the year above
51 was 2008.
In the U.S., the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's commitments of traders report with a tally of
wagers on West Texas Intermediate and other assets won't be published during the government
shutdown, according to a Dec. 22 notice.
Overall, oil prices will continue to "be difficult to predict," said Youngberg. "2019
will be volatile just as 2018 was."
Even so, he still offered some predictions for next year. He sees WTI prices averaging
$60 a barrel and global benchmark Brent averaging $66 in 2019. That would mark increases of
roughly 30% for WTI and 20% for Brent from Thursday's levels.
US stocks are decreasing at a slow time of year at about 2% a month. US will have minimal
growth in 2019, in all likelihood at current or even at $60 due the current low price. OPEC
plus is up to about a 1.5 million cut, so even at zero growth inventories will go away. So,
an equilibrium is assured damn, I ran out of fingers and toes,
I hope that is right.
Know it's not fair to ask with the recent price drop, but considering $46 a barrel price,
which shale play is going to contribute to a 600k barrel increase next year
By my logic, prices should be substantially higher, already. But, there is NO current
discussion which I believes touches on reality. Oil companies have to feel the same way.
Hence, my expectation of reduced capex through the first half. But, that's using logic over
future actions, which is a losing proposition. Oil prices will be volatile, and discussions
over supply/demand will be far from reality. That's a pretty good guess.
x Ignored says: 12/18/2018 at 10:56
pm So what are people going to say if the price goes low $40s, production increases and
companies post losses? And then the next year exactly the same thing happens. And the next.
Reply
Yes I don't believe chapter 11 bankruptcies stopped much production in 2016, will have to
wait and see if higher rates and a weaker junk bond market do anything
Look at the EIA field crude production page, which I assume for 2015, 2016 and 2017 is now
fairly accurate.
Production dropped more than 1.1 million BOPD from the 2015 peak.
The Permian frenzy appears to have been the primary driver of growth since, with US
production up 3 million BOPD from 9/15-9/18.
The price unfortunately needs to drop another $10 or so and stay there for awhile, as many
are hedged on a percentage of barrels in the Permian and I assume there is still quite a bit
of acreage that is not HBP.
I wound up owning FANG when it bought EGN. It is down $48 pretty quickly, and has been
considered one of the best independents in the Permian. I have heard claims they are
profitable in the $20s so I guess maybe we will find out.
The algos have been in charge of the oil market for awhile. Wouldn't surprise me if we
challenge 2016 low, if for no other reason than short to medium term oil prices near little
relation to the physical market.
When they're profitable in the 20s, they should have now tons of cash and dividends. At the
60$ WTI they should have made much more than 50% earning from total revenue, and should be
able to finance whole 2019 drilling program from cash they already earned.
Economic downturn . Perhaps the largest pricing risk, and one of the hardest to
predict, is the possibility of an economic
downturn . The global economy has already thrown up some red flags, with slowing growth in
China, contracting GDP in parts of Europe, currency crises in emerging markets and financial
volatility around the world. The tightening of interest rates looms large in many of these
problems. "Alarm bells are starting to ring. Demand growth has been a pillar of strength for
the oil market since prices fell and has exceeded 1 million b/d every year since 2012,"
WoodMac's Simon Flowers wrote. "We forecast 1.1 million b/d in 2019, but the trend is at risk."
The U.S.-China trade war could still drag down the global economy, but financial indicators are
already flashing warning signs.
Looks like a lot of bubbles bursting. Not likely to bounce back, so not much financing
available to float pure Permian players. Doesn't look good for any increase in production.
Oil prices will probably stay low with Dow for awhile. Until inventories get closer to zero.
Madness.
Interesting article from Goehring investment bank. They estimate that KSA remaining reserves
are around 50 billion bbls, instead of the 260 b claimed. They also (surprise) think that was
the reason the Aramco IPO was pulled. I also thought the Aramco IPO would never happen
because they would not be able to buy an acceptable reserve report.
Interesting, they are probably right.
I knew Aramco would pull out of the IPO. They are one of the most secretive companies. How
you going to float on the NYSE or London SE with no transparency, which is required by
law.
50 billion sounds about right in my worthless opinion. Interestingly enough that would be
more or less close to the Permian basin reserves.
I think peak oil will arrive without many people noticing until after it has occurred.
A few more thoughts about the referenced Goering report.
First, the basis or their report: "We have good data going up to 2008, however after that
point data becomes difficult to find."
Does anyone else have good data on Ghawar production through 2008. Actual Saudi production
data is hard to come by, and I would like to see a table of Ghawar production through 2008 if
it is out there.
Based on their 2008 data they have included a Hubbert Linearization which is the basis for
their claim.
Second, if their production data and linearization are correct, they have not been
adjusted for improved results from better technology. I believe the multi lateral super wells
Saleri described in his 2005 SPE paper have allowed KSA to recover several percent of
additional original oil in place, as well as to maintain high production rates longer.
Third is that it appears many of those super wells were drilled beginning in mid 2000's.
It would make sense that the change in Saudi attitudes regarding production restraint between
2014 and now could be due to those multilateral wells watering out.
Coffee. I hope if you have been investing in the Appalachian gas players that you have been
short.
The only investment class in oil and gas that may be worse over the past ten years would
be the service sector, particularly the drillers.
Interesting that, despite all the activity, the US onshore drillers are becoming penny
stocks. I have pointed out Nabors. The rest are all tanking bad it appears.
You made a big deal out of a very long lateral operated by Eclipse Resources. Eclipse
equity closed at 76 cents a share.
I am not so sure that ultra cheap oil and gas is such a great thing for the US, given we
are now the world's largest producer of both.
I never have, nor will I ever in the future, take any financial stake in these or any
other companies.
As I have stated numerous times over the years, my primary interest is in operations who
is doing what, how it is being done, who is doing it better – or claims to be.
My initial interest in this site way back when was to learn why some people seemed to
think this so called Shale Revolution was No Big Deal a retirement party, in the words of
Berman.
It was quickly apparent to me that a great deal of unawareness vis a vis industry
developments permeated this site's participants.
This, alongside several predisposing factors to NOT want the shale production to explode
upwards provided fertile grounds for the soon 12 to 16 million barrels per day US oil
production, along with 100+ Bcfd gas production to be a spectaculsrly unforseen reality.
What I prefer or not prefer is secondary to what I believe to be occurring, shallow.
If anyone cares to spend 3 minutes reading the April, 2017 USGS press release accompanying
the Haynesville/Bossier assessment, they will read the following from Walter Guidroz, Program
Coordinator of the USGS Energy Resources Program
"As the USGS revisits many of the oil and gas basins of the US, we continually find that
technological revolutions of the past few years have truly been a game changer in the amount
of resources that are now technically recoverable".
Addendum Eclipse is being shut down/folded into another entity.
The lead engineer behind their ultra long laterals is now working with the new outfit from
which this technology will continue to spread.
No offense meant coffee. I know some who post here like to tangle with you. I am not
interested in that, just straightforward discussion.
Shale has surprised the heck out of me, and has made me several times strongly consider
liquidating my entire investment in oil and gas, absent maybe keeping just a couple of KSA
like cheap (to quote PXD CEO) LOE wells to fool around with. Had I known in 2012-13 that this
was coming, would have sold all but those few "piddle around with wells." It has been
absolutely no fun when these price crashes occur, and is especially no fun knowing that this
shale miracle is less profitable than an operation producing less than one bopd per well from
very, very old and tired wells.
You have to admit that the way the shale is being developed is destroying the oil and gas
industries that are developing it.
Particularly hard hit are the service companies, many which are already bankrupt.
Even XOM, which I have owned for many, many years (prior to the merger, I owned both Exxon
and Mobil) has hit the skids, having fallen through the $70 per share barrier.
Range Resources is at $10.26, a level not seen since 2004. It traded as high as $90 before
the 2014 crash.
EQT was over $100. Today $18.55
Whiting was nearly $400 (accounting for a reverse split) and now is $21.98
CHK closed at $1.84. All time high was $64.
Nabors Industries, the largest onshore US driller closed at $2.09. Traded at split
adjusted $10 in 1978.
Halcon Resources Corp. was over $3,000 split adjusted at one time, went Ch 11 BK, now at
$1.65, looking not so good re: BK again.
We shall soon see who can access what in the way of capital to keep going assuming oil
prices stay below $50 WTI for a considerable time.
I guess I am always concerned about whether businesses make money. Seems to me that would
be of some importance to you, but it isn't, and I suppose there is no harm in that.
I have yet to work anywhere where making money was not the primary motivation.
If the money wasn't important, the shale executives would not make so much of it, I
suppose.
I have always had a hard time understanding why they kept drilling wells in Appalachia
when the gas was selling for 50 cents per mcf. Not important to you, but maybe to others.
Anyway, if we didn't have different views, places like this wouldn't be very
interesting.
Chinese refineries that used to purchase U.S. oil regularly said they had not resumed buying
due to uncertainty over the outlook for trade relations between Washington and Beijing, as well
as rising freight costs and poor profit-margins for refining in the region.
Costs for shipping U.S. crude to Asia on a supertanker are triple those for Middle eastern
oil, data on Refinitiv Eikon showed.
A senior official with a state oil refinery said his plant had stopped buying U.S. oil from
October and had not booked any cargoes for delivery in the first quarter.
"Because of the great policy uncertainty earlier on, plants have actually readjusted back to
using alternatives to U.S. oil ... they just widened our supply options," he said.
He added that his plant had shifted to replacements such as North Sea Forties crude,
Australian condensate and oil from Russia.
"Maybe teapots will take some cargoes, but the volume will be very limited," said a second
Chinese oil executive, referring to independent refiners. The sources declined to be named
because of company policy.
A sharp souring in Asian benchmark refining margins has also curbed overall demand for crude
in recent months, sources said.
Despite the impasse on U.S. crude purchases, China's crude imports could top a record 45
million tonnes (10.6 million barrels per day) in December from all regions, said Refinitiv
senior oil analyst Mark Tay.
Russia is set to remain the biggest supplier at 7 million tonnes in December, with Saudi
Arabia second at 5.7-6.7 million tonnes, he said.
19 hours ago This is an
economic/political tight rope for both countries. China is the largest auto market in the
world with numerous manufacturers located inside its borders. Apple sales will disappoint
inside China after Meng's arrest over Iran sanctions (Huawei is a world heavy weight in terms
of sales), and this has already begun inside China due to national pride. Canada has already
seen one trade agreement postponed over her detention. US firm on the main have already
issued orders to not have key employees travel to their Chinese plants unless absolutely
necessary for fear of retaliation. Brussels is actively working on a plan to bypass US
Iranian sanctions, which are deeply unpopular in Europe.
The key to this solution might be in automotive. Oil is possibly on the endangered bargaining
list. Russia is a key trading partner (for years) with China and, along with Saudi Arabia and
Iran (or even without Iran) will be able to supply their needs. Our agricultural sector,
particularly in soybeans, has been hit hard, forcing the US govt. into farm subsidies. Brazil
just recorded a record harvest in soybeans. The US could counter with lifting Meng from
arrest in return for an agricultural break, but those negotiations won't make the mainstream
news. Personally, I think her arrest was a very ill-thought move on the part of law
enforcement, as the benefits don't even begin to outweigh the massive retaliation to US firms
operating inside their borders. It is almost akin to arresting Tim Cook of Apple or Apple's
CFO. You don't kill a bug with a sledge hammer.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif on Saturday said US sanctions will have no
impact on the policies of the Islamic republic at home or abroad.
"It is obvious that we are facing pressure by the US sanctions. But will that lead to a
change in policy? I can assure you it won't," Zarif told the Doha Forum policy conference in
Qatar.
"If there is an art we have perfected in Iran and can teach to others for a price, it is
the art of evading sanctions," he added.
Sanctions typically fail to change regime behavior, and they are even more likely to fail if
there is no practical way for the targeted regime to get out from under sanctions short of
surrender. The more importance that a regime places on the policies that the outside government
wants to change, the greater the likelihood of failure will be. When the outside government's
goals threaten the regime's security or even its very survival, there is no question of making
a deal.
Because the Trump administration is pursuing regime change in all but name, there is no
chance that Iran will yield to U.S. pressure. The administration's demands are so ambitious and
excessive that no self-respecting state could agree to them without giving up its sovereignty
and independence. It should be clear by now that pressure and coercion inspire defiance and
intransigence. If the U.S. wants to see changes in Iranian international behavior, it would
need to provide assurances and incentives that make taking that risk worth their while. Since
this administration has made a point of reneging on commitments already made to Iran, there are
no assurances that it could make that the Iranian government could trust, and the
administration is allergic to offering any incentives to its negotiating partners for fear of
appearing "weak."
"Note that an oil price scenario between the AEO 2018 low oil price case and reference oil
price case (average of the two scenarios) would mean that at current well cost, the Permian Basin
would never become profitable. This is what Mike Shellman has been saying all along."
Notable quotes:
"... We basically lost $20 a barrel in the blink of an eye. In our case, that is over $100K per month of income loss. This after 2015-17, where the price was less than half what it had been 2011-14. ..."
"... Imagine what would happen if the boss walked into the tech campus of a firm in Silicon Valley and said everyone was taking a $12,000 per month pay cut immediately. Would be a lot of knashing of teeth. ..."
"... Now imagine the pay cut was pretty much in conjunction with an erratic President, supported almost 100% by the industry, ironically, who erroneously thinks .30 a gallon lower gasoline prices will be a boon to the US economy. ..."
I think the frustration of a small business oil producer should be obvious.
My family and I have pretty much decided producing oil in the US is not a real business
anymore. How can one have a real business when there are so many fixed costs, that do not
change much, with the price of the product sold moving up and down like a yo-yo? Add to that
at least 50% of the voting public thinking what you are doing is evil. It is now much more
preferred that one grow harvest and sell cannabis so people can get high, rather than produce
oil for gasoline, diesel, plastics and the numerous other daily used consumer products.
You have done a lot of construction work, so I am sure you know the feeling when there is
a recession and work drops way off. At least you might get some sympathy in that situation.
Farmers get a government payment. Oil people get laughed at.
We basically lost $20 a barrel in the blink of an eye. In our case, that is over $100K per
month of income loss. This after 2015-17, where the price was less than half what it had been
2011-14.
Take the family out here that is living on 20 BOPD, doing all the work themselves. Selling
600 BO per month. That family just saw a $12,000 hit to the top line. The expenses didn't
change except for fuel, which has fallen some. Probably less than $1,000 per month savings
there.
Imagine what would happen if the boss walked into the tech campus of a firm in Silicon
Valley and said everyone was taking a $12,000 per month pay cut immediately. Would be a lot
of knashing of teeth.
Now imagine the pay cut was pretty much in conjunction with an erratic President,
supported almost 100% by the industry, ironically, who erroneously thinks .30 a gallon lower
gasoline prices will be a boon to the US economy. With the alternative being a party openly
hostile to the industry, who cannot differentiate between small business owners with small
footprints and corporate titans who make no money on the product, but make billions off the
corporate largess. We are all terrible polluters who need to get hit with a carbon tax and
made to jump through environmental testing hoops despite we are emitting less than the tiny
amounts of methane we were emitting 30 years ago.
Shallow. Thanks for explaining how it looks from where you stand.
As much as I hate to think this way, it raises the idea that the government should have a
price stability mechanism in place that shields producers from the volatility of the
dysfunctional market. Maybe gets updated every 6 months depending on market conditions or
something like that. I'm sure everyone would hate it.
Maybe the government should even have a longrange an energy policy. Like a ten yr plan. I
know crazy thinking.
Regarding my small oil business rant above. Small business is a tough place, not just in
the oil industry, but all over.
I think of the grocery store owners. Those guys had a pretty good thing going in small
towns 30 years ago. Now they are gone if there is a Walmart nearby.
Same with department stores. The mall in a mid sized town nearby is halfway a ghost town
now.
Capitalism can be brutal. But it doesn't seem that another way has proven to be a better
idea either. We tend to take freedom for granted in the USA. We are very lucky we have the
freedom we do have.
I don't know that price controls are a good idea. I don't know what the answer is to
market volatility. We benefitted from getting into oil when no one wanted to touch it, and
really did well from 2005–14. Since then, not so good, but maybe our time will come
once more.
Overall, shouldn't complain. Just trying to give a unique perspective. Also trying to
let everyone know that there are a lot of hardworking small business owners in upstream oil
and they aren't the terrible people some make them out to be.
Everything in the media these days is very urban centered and also very East Coast
dominant. So different perspectives from different regions is always good, I think.
!! Runners-up for Quote of the Year !!
from above:
"Shale oil is a by-product of easy monetary policies which are being withdrawn."
in a way kinda https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-11/real-implications-new-permian-estimates
"Now, I know FOR A FACT that American energy dominance is within our grasp"
and it keeps getting more better
"Reilly stressed, "Knowing where these resources are located and how much exists is crucial
to ensuring both our energy independence and energy dominance.""
Pretty Powerful results for just a by-product!
Was it JH Kunstler that pointed out that "energy dominance" is kinda kinky?
Shallow Sand
Neo Capitalism or Creditism might be better terms to describe our current monetary and
economic system. When central banks can issue Credit and lend it to their pets by the
billions and when those corporations go under they just issue more Credit to the
corporations that take their place. This is not Capitalism where companies and individuals
produce something valuable and return a profit that they can then reinvest as Capital.
This current economic system is destroying the sources of wealth and valuables. It
encourages burning down the house to stay warm. I used to dream of being a big farmer but
more and more I feel lucky when I see the stress and fear that so many of the bigger
farmers are dealing with.
I appreciate your great contribution to this site. I've learned so much from your
comments. They've increased my confidence that this shale business would not be here if it
were not for the biggest ponzi scheme to date. And that the peak of Oil production per
Capita that was reached in 1979 will never again be topped in my lifetime even with all
this fraud on its side.
Currently, legacy decline is just above 500,000 barrels per month. This means that if
production is to be increased by 100,000 barrels per month then new wells must produce
600,000 barrels per month of new oil.
If US new oil production is indeed increasing by 600,000 barrels/day per month, this is
a mind-blowing number -- 7.2 million barrels/day per year. Has new oil production ever
increased by this much anywhere else in the World?
Besides that, Saudi Arabia requires the organization to maintain a high level of oil
production due to pressure coming from
Washington to achieve a very low cost per barrel of oil. The US energy strategy targets
Iranian and Russian revenue from oil exports, but it also aims to give the US a speedy economic
boost. Trump often talks about the price of oil falling as his personal victory. The US
imports
about 10 million barrels of oil a day, which is why Trump wrongly believes that a decrease in
the cost per barrel could favor a boost to the US economy. The economic reality shows a strong
correlation
between the price of oil and the financial growth of a country, with low prices of crude oil
often synonymous of a slowing down in the economy.
It must be remembered that to keep oil prices high, OPEC countries are required to maintain
a high rate of production, doubling the damage to themselves. Firstly, they take less income
than expected and, secondly, they deplete their oil reserves to favor the strategy imposed by
Saudi Arabia on OPEC to please the White House. It is clearly a strategy that for a country
like Qatar (and perhaps Venezuela and Iran in the near future) makes little sense, given the
diplomatic and commercial rupture with Riyadh stemming from
tensions between the Gulf countries.
In contrast, the OPEC+ organization, which also includes other countries like the Russian
Federation, Mexico and Kazakhstan, seems to now to determine oil and its cost per barrel. At
the moment, OPEC and Russia have agreed to cut production by 1.2 million barrels per day,
contradicting Trump's desire for high oil output.
With this last choice Qatar sends a clear signal to the region and to traditional allies,
moving to the side of OPEC+ and bringing its interests closer in line with those of the Russian
Federation and its all-encompassing oil and gas strategy, two sectors in which Qatar and Russia
dominate market share.
In addition, Russia and Qatar's global strategy also brings together and includes partners
like Turkey (a future
energy hub connecting east and west as well as north and south) and Venezuela. In this
sense, the meeting between
Maduro and Erdogan seems to be a prelude to further reorganization of OPEC and its members.
It's crazy to think of all of the natural gas burned off by the world's oil producers. I
think of those oil platforms that have a huge burning flame on top. This is the kind of ****
that reminds us that the people who control the world care not for the people who live here.
Can't make a buck from it? ******* burn it.
Consider though that those oil producers are only in it for the money; it's not an
avocation with them. I imagine if there was a way to salvage the natural gas, it would be
done. Mo Muny would dictate it.
This could be the beggining of a level 5 popcorn event. It started a year or two ago and
when I saw it everybody laughed. Well look at it now. Saudi wants to defect. They have had
nothing but problems with the House of Sodomy for quite some time now.
If this leads to war in the Persian Gulf Edgar Cayce called it. The empire will burn that
place down before losing it. They may fail but something is going to go down.
Are the Sauds still full heartedly pushing the Zionist mission in Yemen?
As an Iranian-American I have been waiting for something big to happen with Iran. I am
really tired of waiting. I hope that Iran will grow some balls and fight the coalition. I
know that there are 80 million lives in danger, including my mom going back to Iran for a
short term. But this has been like a long torture and unending nightmare.
There is no multipolarity yet, but a bipolar hype of the world dominance run by US and its
vassals. An awakening will be harsh, when these realize their emperor goes naked.
Trump lost control of foreign policy, when he appointed Pompeo. US voters might elect Hillary with the same effect on foreign policy
as Pompeo.
Notable quotes:
"... It is to Trump's disgrace that he chose Pompeo and the abominable Bolton. At least Trump admits the ME invasions are really about Israel. ..."
"... Energy dominance, lebensraum for Israel and destroying the current Iran are all objectives that fit into one neat package. Those plans look to be coming apart at the moment so it remains to be seen how fanatical Trump is on Israel and MAGA. MAGA as US was at the collapse of the Soviet Union. ..."
"... As for pulling out of the Middle East Bibi must have had a good laugh. Remember when he said he wanted out of Syria. My money is on the US to be in Yemen before too long to protect them from the Saudis (humanitarian) and Iranian backed Houthis, while in reality it will be to secure the enormous oil fields in the North. ..."
"... The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to deny it to enemies and control oil prices in order to feed international finance/IMF. ..."
Pompeo is a Deep State Israel-firster with a nasty neocon agenda. It is to Trump's disgrace that he chose Pompeo and the abominable
Bolton. At least Trump admits the ME invasions are really about Israel.
Pompeo is a Deep State Israel-firster with a nasty neocon agenda. It is to Trump's disgrace that he chose Pompeo and
the abominable Bolton. At least Trump admits the ME invasions are really about Israel.
Trump, Israel and the Sawdi's. US no longer needs middle east oil for strategic supply. Trump is doing away with the petro-dollar
as that scam has run its course and maintenance is higher than returns. Saudi and other middle east oil is required for global
energy dominance.
Energy dominance, lebensraum for Israel and destroying the current Iran are all objectives that fit into one neat package.
Those plans look to be coming apart at the moment so it remains to be seen how fanatical Trump is on Israel and MAGA. MAGA as
US was at the collapse of the Soviet Union.
As for pulling out of the Middle East Bibi must have had a good laugh. Remember when he said he wanted out of Syria. My money
is on the US to be in Yemen before too long to protect them from the Saudis (humanitarian) and Iranian backed Houthis, while in
reality it will be to secure the enormous oil fields in the North.
Perhaps this was what the Khashoggi trap was all about. The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to deny it
to enemies and control oil prices in order to feed international finance/IMF.
"... Trump won't fire his son-in-law, so if Jared doesn't have the decency to resign on his own, he may well be responsible for Trump's downfall in addition to his own. Trump's silly daughter, Ivanka, needs to go to. ..."
"... Time for Bolton to send for the clairvoyant Theresa May who has managed to accuse Russia, and Mr. Putin personally, in the Skripals' poisoning n the absence of any evidence ..."
Comment section (David Wooten): "According to the crown prince himself, Trump's [Jewish]
son-in-law gave him a secret list of his enemies -- the ones like Al Aweed who were
tortured and shaken down for cash. Khashoggi might even have been on that list.
One or more of the tortured ones likely tipped off Erdogan, which is why Turkey only
needed to enter the consulate, retrieve the recorded audio device they planted, and walk out
with the evidence. Turkey also has evidence that puts MbS' personal doctor and other staff
arriving in Turkey at convenient times to do the job -- and probably more. Khashoggi was
anything but a nice person but Trump cannot say that or he'll likely be accused of
involvement in his murder.
Dissociation is made far more difficult by the fact that Jared is a long time friend of
Netanyahu who, like Jared, hasbefriended MbS .
Trump won't fire his son-in-law, so if Jared doesn't have the decency to resign on his
own, he may well be responsible for Trump's downfall in addition to his own. Trump's silly
daughter, Ivanka, needs to go to.
Were it not for the Khashoggi affair, fewer Republican seats would have been lost in the
election."
-- Time for Bolton to send for the clairvoyant Theresa May who has managed to accuse
Russia, and Mr. Putin personally, in the Skripals' poisoning n the absence of any
evidence .
These people -- Bolton, May, Gavin Williamson and likes -- are a cross of the ever-eager
whores and petty brainless thieves. To expose themselves as the willing participants in the
ZUSA-conducted farce requires a complete lack of integrity.
Of course, there is no way to indict the journalist's murderers since the principal
murderer is a personal friend of Netanyahu and Jared.
Jump, Justice, jump, as high as ordered by the "chosen."
By the way, why do we hear nothing about Seth Rich who was murdered in the most surveilled
city of the US?
@annamaria A 1st
grader can see that MbS was behind the murder of Kashoggi.
Trump won't fire his son-in-law, so if Jared doesn't have the decency to resign on his
own, he may well be responsible for Trump's downfall in addition to his own. Trump's silly
daughter, Ivanka, needs to go to.
I've been hoping for this since they moved to Washington with 'big daddy'.
@Anon " crappy
bedtime reading the woolyheadedness "
Hey, Anon[436], is this how your parents have been treating you? My condolences.
If you feel that you succeeded with your "see, a squirrel" tactics of taking attention
from the zionists' dirty and amoral attempts at coverup of the murder of the journalists
Khashoggi, which was accomplished on the orders of the clown prince (the dear friend of Bibi
& Jared), you are for a disappointment.
One more time for you, Anon[436]: the firm evidence of MbS involvement in the murder of
Khashoggi contrasts with no evidence of the alleged poisoning of Skripals by
Russian government.
The zionists have been showing an amazing tolerance towards the clown prince the murderer
because zionists need the clown prince for the implementation of Oded Yinon Plan for Eretz
Israel.
The stinky Skripals' affair involves harsh economic actions imposed on the RF in the
absence of any evidence , as compared to no sanctions in response to the actual murder
of Khashoggi, which involved MbS according to the availableevidence . Thanks
to the zionists friendship with the clown prince, the firm evidence of Khashoggi murder is of
no importance. What else could be expected from the "most moral" Bibi & Kushner and the
treasonous Bolton.
The stinky Skripals' affair involves harsh economic actions imposed on the RF in the
absence of any evidence, as compared to no sanctions in response to the actual murder of
Khashoggi, which involved MbS according to the available evidence. Thanks to the zionists
friendship with the clown prince, the firm evidence of Khashoggi murder is of no
importance. What else could be expected from the "most moral" Bibi & Kushner and the
treasonous Bolton.
We will also have to see how long it takes for the shale frackers modify their behavior in
the face of $50 oil. We haven't seen any signs so far, with a few rigs continued to be added
each week. At some point the frackers will wake up and determine that oil at $50 doesn't go as
far as oil at $75 and tap the brakes just a hair. We are also due for a seasonal pause in some
of the U.S. Northern areas, as winter takes a bite out of drilling activity.
In practical terms we will probably be well into the first quarter before we see any impact
from OPEC production cuts. However, once we do, it will be like June of 2017 all over again,
and the price of oil could strongly respond to the upside.
This article is from May 2018 but it read as if it was written yesterday.
Notable quotes:
"... He estimates that sanctions will cut Iran's exports by up to 500,000 barrels a day later this year. "It could well be much more in 2019," he said. ..."
"U.S. political pressure is clearly a dominant factor at this OPEC meeting, limiting the scope of Saudi actions to rebalance the
market," said Gary Ross, chief executive of Black Gold Investors and a veteran OPEC watcher.
channelnewsasia.com 10 May 2018
Donald Trump could hardly have chosen a more treacherous economic moment to tear up the "decaying and rotten deal" with Iran.
The world crude market is already tightening very fast. Joint production curbs by Opec and Russia have cleared the four-year glut
of oil. There is no longer an ample safety buffer against supply shocks. The geopolitical "premium" on prices has returned. Tensions
run high:
The Maduro regime in Venezuela is entering its last agonies, and the country's oil industry is imploding. North America has run
into an infrastructure crunch. There are not yet enough pipelines to keep pace with shale oil output from the Permian Basin of west
Texas, and it is much the same story in the Alberta tar sands. The prospect of losing several hundred thousand barrels a day of Iranian
oil exports would not have mattered much a year ago. It certainly matters now.
World leaders respond to President Trump's move to reimpose economic sanctions on Iran while pulling the United States out of
the international agreement aimed at stopping Tehran from obtaining a nuclear bomb.
Oil price shock is looming
It is the confluence of simmering political crises in so many places that has driven Brent crude to $US77 a barrel, up 60 per
cent since last June. "We believe an oil price shock is looming as early as 2019 as several elements combine to form a 'perfect storm',"
said Westbeck Capital. It predicts $US100 crude in short order, with $US150 coming into sight as the world faces a crunch all too
reminiscent of July 2008. The fund warns that the investment collapse since 2014 is about to deliver its sting. Declining fields
are not being replaced. Output from conventional projects has until now been rising but will fall precipitously by 1.5 million barrels
a day next year. By then global spare capacity will be down to a lethally thin 1 per cent. US shale cannot plug the gap. "The mantra
after 2014 of lower for longer has lulled oil analysts into a torpor," Westbeck said. Needless to say, a spike to $US150 would precipitate
a global recession.
The US might hope to weather such a traumatic episode now that it is the world's biggest oil producer but it would be fatal for oil-starved
Europe. Such a scenario would test the unreformed euro to destruction. Britain, France and Germany may earnestly wish to preserve
the Iran deal but they can do little against US financial hegemony and the ferocity of "secondary sanctions". The US measures cover
shipping, insurance, and the gamut of financial and logistical support for Iran's oil industry.
In the end, there are infinitely greater matters at stake than barrels of oil.
Any European or Asian company that falls foul of this will be shut out of the US capital markets and dollarised international payments
system. The EU has talked of
beefing up the 1996 Blocking Regulation used to shield European companies from extraterritorial US sanctions against Libya. But
this is just bluster. No European company with operations in the US would dare flout the US Treasury. "A choice for corporate Europe
between the US and Iran is unequivocally going to fall the way of the US," said Richard Robinson from Ashburton Global Energy Fund.
Rise in oil prices turns malign
He said Europe will have to slash its imports from Iran by 60 per cent because groups such as ENI or Total will refuse to ship
the oil, whatever the strategic policy of the EU purports to be. This dooms the nuclear deal (JCPOA) since Iran will not abide by
the terms if the EU cannot deliver on its rhetoric, let alone come through with the $US200 billion ($251 billion) of foreign investment
coveted by Tehran.
David Fyfe from oil traders Gunvor said we do not yet have enough details from Washington to judge how quickly companies will
have to act. He estimates that sanctions will cut Iran's exports by up to 500,000 barrels a day later this year. "It could well
be much more in 2019," he said.
Late last year it was still possible to view rising oil prices as benign, the result of a booming world economy. This year it
has turned malign. Global growth has rolled over. The broad IHS index of raw materials has been falling since February.
Europe's catch-up spurt fizzled out in the first quarter. Japan's GDP probably contracted. The higher oil price is itself part
of the cause.
$US500 billion extra 'tax'
Even at current levels, it acts as an extra $US500 billion "tax" this year for consumers in Asia, Europe and America. Not all
of the windfall enjoyed by the petro-powers is recycled quickly back into global spending.
One cause of the slowdown is the credit squeeze in China, which is ineluctably feeding through into the real economy with a delay.
Proxy indicators suggest that true growth has fallen below 5 per cent.
My own view is that monetary tightening by the US Federal Reserve - and declining stimulus from the European Central Bank - is
doing more damage than widely presumed.
Higher US interest rates are pushing up borrowing costs for much of the world. Three-month dollar Libor rates used to price $US9
trillion of global contracts have risen 76 basis points since January.
The Fed is shrinking its balance sheet, draining international dollar liquidity at a quickening pace. If the Fed is not careful,
it will tip the US economy into a stall.
Ominously, we are seeing the first signs of a US dollar rally, tantamount to a "short squeeze" on Turkey, Argentina and Indonesia,
among other emerging market debtors.
Toxic combination
The combination of a slowing economy and an oil supply shock is toxic, even if the "energy intensity" of world GDP is now half
the level of 30 years ago.
Opec and Russia can of course lift their output cap at any time, though that alone will not restore the full 1.8m barrels a day
of original curbs. Venezuela is now in unstoppable free-fall.
The Saudis have pledged to uphold the "stability of oil markets" and to help "mitigate the impact of any potential supply shortages".
Kuwait and Abu Dhabi could add a little. Yet cyclical forces may be moving even beyond their control.
In the end, there are infinitely greater matters at stake than barrels of oil. Trump is throwing US power behind Saudi Arabia
in the epic Sunni-Shia battle for dominance over the Middle East, and behind Israel in its separate battle with Iran.
What can go wrong?
Both conflicts are on a hair trigger. Israel attacked an Iranian air base in Syria last month and killed
seven revolutionary guards. This is a dangerous escalation from proxy conflict to direct hostilities. The JCPOA nuclear deal may
be all that restrains the Iranian side from lashing out.
Saudi Arabia's impetuous young leader Mohammad bin Salman is itching to settle the score of all scores with Iran, the Iranian
revolutionary guard are in turn itching to launch a one-year dash for nuclear weapons, and Trump is itching for regime change. What
can go wrong?
2019 might be the year when Western powers start paying the price for 2014-2017 oil price
crash. Three years of subpar capital investment will bite them in the back.
Russia Economic
Report said that OPEC was the single most important factor for oil price outlooks in the
short term.
"As non-OPEC oil supply growth is expected to be greater than that of global demand, the
outlook for oil prices depends heavily on supply from OPEC members," the report's authors
noted. The level of spare capacity among OPEC members is estimated to be low at present,
suggesting there are limited buffers in the event of a sudden shortfall in supply of oil,
raising the likelihood of oil price spikes in 2019."
The World Bank is not alone in seeing OPEC's spare capacity as an important factor for oil
prices going forward. Spare capacity provides a cushion against price shocks as evidenced most
recently by the June decision of the cartel and Russia to start pumping more again after 18
months of cutting to arrest a too fast increase in oil prices. They had the capacity to do it
and prices stopped rising, helped by downward revisions of economic forecasts.
Now, the oil market is plagued with concerns about oversupply, but this could change quite
quickly if there is any sign that OPEC is nearing the end of its spare production capacity. As
to the likelihood of such a sign emerging anytime soon, this remains to be seen.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates OPEC's spare capacity at a little over 1
million bpd as of the fourth quarter of this year. That's down from 2.1 million bpd at the
end of 2017, but with Venezuela's production in free fall and with Iran pumping less because of
the U.S. sanctions, the total spare capacity of the group has declined substantially.
"... Everyone knows it's the US presence in the Middle East which creates terrorists, both as proxies of and in resistance to the US imperial presence (and often one and then the other). So reading Orwellian language, Pompeo is saying the US wants to maximize Islamic terrorism in order to provide a pretext for creeping totalitarianism at home and abroad. ..."
"... The real reason is to maintain the petrodollar system, but there seems to be a conspiracy of silence never to mention it among both supporters and opponents of Trump. ..."
"... everyone knows why the usa is in the middle east.. to support the war industry, which is heavily tied to the financial industry.. up is down and down is up.. that is why the usa is great friends with ksa and israel and a sworn enemy of iran... what they don't say is they are a sworn enemy of humanity and the thought that the world can continue with their ongoing madness... ..."
"... The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to deny it to enemies and control oil prices in order to feed international finance/IMF ..."
Trump also floated the idea of removing U.S. troops from the Middle East, citing the lower price of oil as a reason to withdraw.
"Now, are we going to stay in that part of the world? One reason to is Israel ," Trump said. "Oil is becoming less and less
of a reason because we're producing more oil now than we've ever produced. So, you know, all of a sudden it gets to a point
where you don't have to stay there."
It is only Israel, it is no longer the oil, says Trump. But the nuclear armed Israel does not need U.S. troops for its protection.
And if it is no longer the oil, why is the U.S. defending the Saudis?
Trump's Secretary of State Mike Pompeo disagrees with his boss. In a Wall Street journal op-ed today he claims that
The U.S.-Saudi Partnership
Is Vital because it includes much more then oil:
[D]egrading U.S.-Saudi ties would be a grave mistake for the national security of the U.S. and its allies.
The kingdom is a powerful force for stability in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia is working to secure Iraq's fragile democracy
and keep Baghdad tethered to the West's interests, not Tehran's. Riyadh is helping manage the flood of refugees fleeing Syria's
civil war by working with host countries, cooperating closely with Egypt, and establishing stronger ties with Israel. Saudi
Arabia has also contributed millions of dollars to the U.S.-led effort to fight Islamic State and other terrorist organizations.
Saudi oil production and economic stability are keys to regional prosperity and global energy security.
Where and when please has Saudi Arabia "managed the flood of refugees fleeing Syria's civil war". Was that when it
emptied its jails of violent criminals and sent them to wage jihad against the Syrian people? That indeed 'managed' to push
millions to flee from their homes.
Saudi Arabia might be many things but "a powerful force for stability" it is not. Just ask 18 million Yemenis who, after years
of Saudi bombardment, are near to death for lack of
food .
Pompeo's work for the Saudi dictator continued today with a Senate briefing on Yemen. The Senators will soon vote on a resolution
to end the U.S. support for the war. In his prepared remarks Pompeo wrote:
The suffering in Yemen grieves me, but if the United States of America was not involved in Yemen, it would be a hell of a lot
worse.
What could be worse than a famine that threatens two third of the population?
If the U.S. and Britain would not support the Saudis and Emirates the war would end within a day or two. The Saudi and UAE
planes are maintained by U.S. and British specialists. The Saudis still
seek 102 more U.S. military personal to
take care of their planes. It would be easy for the U.S. to stop such recruiting of its veterans.
It is the U.S. that
holds up an already
watered down UN Security Council resolution that calls for a ceasefire in Yemen:
The reason for the delay continues to be a White House worry about angering Saudi Arabia, which strongly opposes the resolution,
multiple sources say. CNN reported earlier this month that the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, "threw a fit" when
presented with an early draft of the document, leading to a delay and further discussions among Western allies on the matter.
There is really nothing in Trump's list on which the Saudis consistently followed through. His alliance with MbS brought him
no gain and a lot of trouble.
Trump protected MbS from the consequences of murdering Jamal Khashoggi. He hoped to gain leverage with that. But that is not
how MbS sees it. He now knows that Trump will not confront him no matter what he does. If MbS "threws a fit" over a UN Security
Council resolution, the U.S. will drop it. When he launches his next 'adventure', the U.S. will again cover his back. Is this
the way a super power is supposed to handle a client state?
If Trump's instincts really tell him that U.S. troops should be removed from the Middle East and Afghanistan, something I doubt,
he should follow them. Support for the Saudi war on Yemen will not help to achieve that. Pandering to MbS is not MAGA.
Posted by b on November 28, 2018 at 03:12 PM |
Permalink
Comments Pompeo: "Saudi Arabia has also contributed millions of dollars to the U.S.-led effort to fight Islamic State and other
terrorist organizations."
Everyone knows it's the US presence in the Middle East which creates terrorists, both as proxies of and in resistance to
the US imperial presence (and often one and then the other). So reading Orwellian language, Pompeo is saying the US wants to maximize
Islamic terrorism in order to provide a pretext for creeping totalitarianism at home and abroad.
The real reason is to maintain the petrodollar system, but there seems to be a conspiracy of silence never to mention it among
both supporters and opponents of Trump.
There is really nothing in Trump's list on which the Saudis consistently followed through. His alliance with MbS brought him
no gain and a lot of trouble.
He did get to fondle the orb - although fuck knows what weirdness was really going on there.
thanks b... pompeo is a very bad liar... in fact - everything he says is about exactly the opposite, but bottom line is he is
a bad liar as he is thoroughly unconvincing..
everyone knows why the usa is in the middle east.. to support the war industry, which is heavily tied to the financial
industry.. up is down and down is up.. that is why the usa is great friends with ksa and israel and a sworn enemy of iran... what
they don't say is they are a sworn enemy of humanity and the thought that the world can continue with their ongoing madness...
oh, but don't forget to vote, LOLOL.... no wonder so many are strung out on drugs, and the pharma industry... opening up to
the msm is opening oneself up to the world george orwell described many years ago...
Take a wafer or two of silicon and just add water. The oil obsession has been eclipsed and within 20 years will be in absolute
disarray. The warmongers will invent new excuses.
A hypothetical: No extraordinary amounts of hydrocarbons exist under Southwest Asian ground; just an essential amount for domestic
consumption; in that case, would Zionistan exist where it's currently located and would either Saudi Arabia, Iraq and/or Iran
have any significance aside from being consumers of Outlaw US Empire goods? Would the Balfour Declaration and the Sykes/Picot
Secret Treaty have been made? If the Orinoco Oil Belt didn't exist, would Venezuela's government be continually targeted for Imperial
control? If there was no Brazilian offshore oil, would the Regime Change effort have been made there? Here the hypotheticals end
and a few basic yet important questions follow.
Previous to the 20th Century, why were Hawaii and Samoa wrested from their native residents and annexed to Empire? In what
way did the lowly family farmers spread across 19th Century United States further the growth of its Empire and contribute to the
above named annexations? What was the unspoken message sent to US elites contained within Frederic Jackson Turner's 1893 Frontier
Thesis ? Why is the dominant language of North America English, not French or Spanish?
None of these are rhetorical. All second paragraph questions I asked of my history students. And all have a bearing on b's
fundamental question.
b says, "And it its no longer the oil, why is the U.S. defending the Saudis?"
The US has a vital interest in protecting the narrative of 9/11. The Saudis supplied the patsies. Mossad and dual-citizen neocons
were the architects of the event. Hence, the US must avoid a nasty divorce from the Saudis. The Saudis are in a perfect blackmailing
position.
Of course, most Americans have no idea that the U.S. Shale Oil Industry is nothing more than a Ponzi Scheme because of the
mainstream media's inability to report FACT from FICTION. However, they don't deserve all of the blame as the shale energy
industry has done an excellent job hiding the financial distress from the public and investors by the use of highly technical
jargon and BS.
S.A. is a thinly disguised US military base, hence the "strategic importance" and the relevance of the new Viceroy's previous
experience as a Four Star General. It's doubtful that any of the skilled personnel in the SA Air Force are other than former US/Nato.
A few princes might fancy themselves to be daring fighter pilots. In case of a Anglo-Zio war with Iran SA would be the most forward
US aircraft carrier. The Empire is sustained by its presumed military might and prizes nothing more than its strategically situated
bases. Saud would like to capture Yemen's oil fields, but the primary purpose of the air war is probably training. That of course
is more despicably cynical than mere conquest and genocide.
Trump is the ultimate deceiver/liar. Great actor reading from a script. The heel in the Fake wrestling otherwise known as US politics.
It almost sounds as if he is calling for an end of anymore significant price drops now that he has got Powell on board to limit
interest rate hikes. After all if you are the worlds biggest producer you dont want prices too low. These markets are all manipulated.
I cant imagine how much insider trading is going on. If you look at the oil prices, they started dropping in October with Iran
sanctions looming (before it was announced irans shipments to its 8 biggest buyers would be exempt) and at the height of the Khashoggi
event where sanctions were threatened and Saudi was making threats of their own. In a real free market prices increase amidst
supply uncertainty.
Regardless of what he says he wants and gets now, he is already planning a reversal. Thats how the big boys win, they know
whats coming and when the con the smaller fish to swim one way they are lined up with a big mouth wide open. Controlled chaos
and confusion. For every winner there must be a loser and the losers assets/money are food for the Gods of Money and War
As for pulling out of the Middle East Bibi must have had a good laugh. My money is on the US to be in Yemen to protect them
from the Saudis (humanitarian) and Iranian backed Houthis while in reality we will be there to secure the enormous oil fields
in the North. Perhaps this was what the Khashoggi trap was all about. The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to
deny it to enemies and control oil prices in order to feed international finance/IMF
@ Pft who wrote: "The importance of oil is not to supply US markets its to deny it to enemies and control oil prices in order
to feed international finance/IMF"
BINGO!!! Those that control finance control most/all of everything else.
Saudi Arabia literally owns close to 8% of the United States economy through various financial instruments. Their public investment
funds and dark pools own large chunks from various strategic firms resting at the apex of western power such as Blackstone. Trump
and Pompeo would be stupid to cut off their nose to spite their face... It's all about the petrodollar, uncle sam will ride and
die with saudi barbaria. If push comes to shove and the saudis decide to untether themselves from the Empire, their sand kingdom
will probably be partitioned.
The oil certainly still plays an important role, the u.s. cannot maintain the current frack oil output for long. For Tronald's
term in office it will suffice, but hardly longer. (The frack gas supplies are much more substantial.)
Personal interests certainly also play a role, and finally one should not make u.s. foreign policy more rational than it is.
Much is also done because of traditions and personal convictions. Often they got it completely wrong and the result was a complete
failure.
Let us watch what Trump does with this or if the resolution makes it to daylight:
Senate advances Yemen resolution in rebuke to Trump
The Senate issued a sharp rebuke Wednesday to President Trump, easily advancing a resolution that would end U.S. military support
for the Saudi-led campaign in Yemen's civil war despite a White House effort to quash the bill.
The administration launched an eleventh-hour lobbying frenzy to try to head off momentum for the resolution, dispatching
Defense Secretary James Mattis and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo to Capitol Hill in the morning and issuing a veto threat
less than an hour before the vote started.
But lawmakers advanced the resolution, 63-37, even as the administration vowed to stand by Saudi Arabia following outcry
over the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
"There's been a lot of rhetoric that's come from the White House and from the State Department on this issue," said Sen.
Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. "The rhetoric that I've heard and the broadcasts that we've
made around the world as to who we are have been way out of balance as it relates to American interests and American values."
[/] LINK
TheHill
But Mattis says there is no smoking gun to tie the Clown Thug-Prince to Kashoggi's killing.
TheHill
And Lyias @ 2 is a bingo. Always follow the fiat.
Soon, without any announcements, if they wish to maintain selling oil to China, KSA will follow Qatar. It will be priced in
Yuan...especially given the escalating U.S. trade war with China.
2019 holds interesting times. Order a truckload of popcorn.
Midwest For Truth , Nov 28, 2018 7:29:46 PM |
link
You would have to have your head buried in the sand to not see that the Saudi "Kings" are crypto-Zionistas. Carl Sagan once said,
"One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle.
We're no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even
to ourselves, that we've been taken. Once you give a charlatan power over you, you almost never get it back." And Mark Twain also
wrote "It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled."
Gee, not one taker amongst all these intelligent folk. From last to first: 1588's Protestant Wind allowed Elizabeth and her cronies
to literally keep their heads as Nature helped Drake defeat the Spanish Armada; otherwise, there would be no British Empire root
to the USA, thus no USA and no future Outlaw US Empire, the British Isles becoming a Hapsburg Imperial Property, and a completely
different historical lineage, perhaps sans World Wars and atomic weapons.
Turner's message was with the Frontier closed the "safety valve" of contine
damn, I ran out of fingers and toes, I hope that is right.
