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COVID-19 fearmongering

MSM dirty dance around human mortality

In China already over 70% of its 80,000+ Coronavirus patients have made a full recovery

 

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It looks like healthy people younger then 60 have little to fear but fear itself. But fear is addictive and it looks like panic, including panic buying had spread in the USA, fueled by irresponsible and often evil MSM fearmongering.  For example, reporting deaths from the virus neoliberal MSM do not split it by age groups as this would decrease the level of fear in the population ( and their profits ). Also reporting just the number of death from the virus, not the deviation form the average number of deaths for a week or a month or so artificially increases panic.

Reporting  deaths from the virus neoliberal MSM do not split  it by age groups as this would decrease the level of fear in the population ( and their profits ).   Also reporting just the number of death from the virus, not the deviation form the average number of deaths for a week or a month or so artificially increases panic.

Panic and fear artificially incited by neoliberal MSM and cowardice to face the risks immanent in any epidemics (as well as driving the  car) is doing more damage than the disease itself.  They provoked the wave of panic hoarding in the USA which started in February with  isopropyl alcohol and hand sanitizer (which in early March reached $60 fro 8 ounces bottle on Amazon ;-)  but spread starting from March 10 to many other products categories including paper towels, bathroom tissue, all types of sanitizers and non perishable food.

Sometime media coverage looks like a complete 100% departure from reality.  More people will die in Yemen and Syria each day going forward, and no one cares. Many old people will serious chronic condition who are die from coronavirus induced pneumonia would die from flu induced pneumonia the same year as they are too weak to resist even flu.  Winter is a very bad season for such people in any case.

Of course, another extreme is fatalism as expressed by Paul Bogdanich in his post at moonofalabama.org (Mar 11 2020 )

I should have clarified, I'm an American living in the United States. That said, it bothers me. The absolute lack of any detectable level of courage or fortitude in the face of diversity (hard times) is just stunning. Old people die. Everyone dies over time. Viruses like the flu or SARS, or COVID-19 accelerate that process from time to time. It's just what viruses do. There is no cure for either death or viruses. If you want, the biblical "Ye shall surely die."

Even in advnaced age life has meaning and is exciting when you're solving concrete problems heling your family or community, or humanity as a whole. Many outstanding achievements were made people over 70 year old (Verdi wrote Otello at 74  and Falstaff (1893) being 80) People over 70 now dominate presidential race in the USA ;-) And unlike fatalists thinking, we do not need to apply to our life the moral metrics which are appropriate only to communities who live on a verge of survival. Loosing some part of annual national income to save lives via quarantine is affordable. Mass testing is a sure way to improve cost efficiency of quarantines and similar measures during virus epidemics. Retired people can and should stay home and avoid situation where they can catch the infection. Reckless behaviour during  virus epidemics is a crime and need to be punished appropriately.

But it is true that the panic can do more damage than the virus itself. And that we need an objective perspective to access the level of threat inherent in this virus epidemics. In the USA a reasonable threshold for classifying the treat as serious  are probably events that exceed car fatalities. In 2016  National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) registered 37,461 killed, an average of 102 per day.

In the USA a reasonable threshold for classifying the treat as serious  are probably events that exceed car fatalities. Which means around 40K people killed per year with the average over 100 per day. The society accepts this level of fatalities as normal, so why this virus epidemics should be treated differently ? Nobody stops driving cars because of this level of risk.

We are still in single digits of victims per day with COVID-19. It did proved high infectious. But there is highly infectious and highly deadly pathogens are two distinct group that do not mix. It is as if viruses  need to make choice between high mortality and high transmission: viruses that kill their host, before the host infects others,  die with the host and this can't kill many hosts without eliminating themselves as well.

With this coronavirus, there seems to be a larger then usual window (aka incubation period) during which a person can be infected and transmitting the virus, without having symptoms. In a way this is a rather "clever" virus. But long incubation period does not eliminates biological reason why highly infectious viruses should evolve to become less deadly in order to succeed.

While the US government of Mar 13 declared  the coronavirus a US national emergency and offered $50 billion for support of state and local governments to fight the virus with FEMA,  additional measures will not have an immediate effect.  But they will definitely slow down the spread of virus "flattening" the epidemics curve and this allowing more paciet to survive.

The current dynamic of epidemic in the USA and the world so far is exponential growth of cases with most infections clustered in just  half-dozen countries. Which is typical for an early stage of virus epidemic. Excluding China which now is past its peak and is in decline, the other fastest growing  hotspots are Italy, Iran, Spain and France. As of Mar 10, 2020 in the USA -- only three states  --  Washington State, New York, and  California have over 100 cases: 

Confirmed cases for the past 10 days for countries and U.S. states with >100 new confirmed cases as of March 10:

Country/State   3/1   3/2   3/3   3/4   3/5   3/6   3/7   3/8   3/9  3/10

Italy           566   342   466   587   769   778  1247  1492  1797  1977
Iran            385   523   835   586   591  1234  1076   743   595   881
Spain            39    36    45    57    37   141   100   173   400   622
France           30    61    13    81    92   276   296   177    83   575
Germany          51    29    37    66   220   188   129   241   136   281
US, Washington                                                        267
Norway            4     6     7    24    31    21    39    29    29   195
US, New York                                                          173
Denmark           1     0     2     4     0    13     0    12    55   172
US, California                                                        144
Switzerland       9    15    14    34    24   100    54    69    37   117
Sweden            2     1     6    14    59     7    60    42    45   107

Posted by: S | Mar 11 2020 18:43 utc | 42 

A a typical flu epidemic in the USA infects tens of million people and cause approx 20-50K fatalities per year (somewhere between 0.1% and 1%)  but does not create any headlines in neoliberal MSM.  According to the CDC’s weekly US flu report of February 22, 2020,

“So far this season there have been at least 32 million flu illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths from flu.”

For comparison the mortality rate in South Korea, where more than 1,100 tests have been administered per million residents, comes out to just 0.6% and concentrated in the old and/or with chronic conditions. In view of USA media hysteria about Coronavirus COVID-19, we need to concentrate on facts, not fears.  Here is Craig Murray comparison with the Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968/9:

The Hong Kong flu pandemic of 1968/9 was the last really serious flu pandemic to sweep the UK. They do seem extraordinarily regular – 1919, 1969 and 2020. Flu epidemics have much better punctuality than the trains (though I cheated a bit there and left out the 1958 “Asian flu”). Nowadays “Hong Kong flu” is known as H3N2. Estimates for deaths it caused worldwide vary from 1 to 4 million. In the UK it killed an estimated 80,000 people.

If the current coronavirus had appeared in 1968, it would simply have been called “flu”, probably “Wuhan flu”. COVID-19 may not be nowadays classified as such, but in my youth flu is definitely what we would have called it. The Hong Kong flu was very similar to the current outbreak in being extremely contagious but with a fairly low mortality rate. 30% of the UK population is estimated to have been infected in the Hong Kong flu pandemic. The death rate was about 0.5%, mostly elderly or with underlying health conditions.

But there was no massive panic, no second by second media hysteria, over Hong Kong flu. Let me start being unpopular. “Man in his 80’s already not very well from previous conditions, dies of flu” is not and should not be a news headline. The coverage is prurient, intrusive, unbalanced and designed to cause hysteria.

Diamond Princess liner  represents the perfect environment for the spread of the virus.  Thousands of people jammed in a small place serviced by a single ventilation system…..it’s virus heaven. Surely all on board are dead by now? Well no.

The reality is that most of the deceased presented with existing pathologies, for example, chronic lung disease (often due to smoking), impaired immune response, pre-existing age related illness and disability, latent infections (esp. TB), use of pharmaceutical product (whether prescribed or not), other infection types, poor nutrition (never, ever underestimate the deleterious effects of junk food), etc. Not all the patients were tested for the corona virus either - so how do we even begin to think we know what they had going on?

 

As Trump tweeted ‘So last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu. It averages between 27,000 and 70,000 per year. Nothing is shut down, life & the economy go on. At this moment there are 546 confirmed cases of CoronaVirus, with 22 deaths. Think about that!’

He made a fair point. The reaction of neoliberal MSM seems to be utterly and totally disproportionate to the risk. When  all official information sources march in lock-step you can reasonably assume some sort of mind-fuck is underway.

But how high risk and what kind of risk could COVID-19 represent? I can only speculate but a few possibilities present themselves. (Remember I’m referring to the reaction here, not the virus itself).

For a start the economic impact of the panic will be considerable. Stocks and bonds will crash precipitously. Millions of investors will be ruined. Nobody knows how far the drop can go.

Wealthy investors could end up buying assets for a fraction of their true worth. It’s happened before on multiple occasions. Then there’s Big Pharma which is sitting on a potential gold mine

MSM dirty dance around human mortality is very annoing.  Risk is clearly tolerated less these days, safety measures are everywhere. But life of ordinary people under neoliberalism is not valued. BS jobs, junk food, subprime and expensive healthcare, crude “entertainment”.

Also significant percentage of those who will die from COVID-19 would die from flu too.

  • utu says:Show Comment
    @Anonymous (n)
    60,000 people die every month in Italy. Many of them old. Now we have 1,000 reported dead due to the Covid-19. Most of them old. Many of them would have died anyway from some cold or flu that would further aggravate their poor state of health. This year Covid-19 got there first.

     

  • Monotonous Languor says:Show Comment
  • March 13, 2020 at 7:03 am GMT • 300 Words

    After sober analysis, extensive reading, and careful assessment of each and every fact either directly or indirectly related to COVID19, I am now fully convinced of the following:

    – The virus was deliberately created by aliens from the Betelgeuse solar system, who have been secretly spying on our planet for the last 200 years.
    – The Betelgeusians have developed a supremely accurate quantum computer model (“It’s Quantum!”) of our species, which predicts what various factions of humanity will do given any set of specific circumstances and inputs.
    – The Betelgeusians, in their infinite wisdom, have decided to re-balance various factions of humanity here on earth, depending on their projected threat to other populations and the planet in general.
    – After running various scenarios through their quantum computer (“It’s Quantum!”), the results for advancing an optimal future became obvious.
    – The COVID19 was created specifically to attack Italians, Iranians, and Han Chinese.
    – In their computer simulation (“It’s Quantum!”), those three groups were considered most egregiously able to perpetrate negative effects on the rest of humanity in the future.
    – Therefore, the Betelgeusians made the onerous decision to create and release the virus.
    – Various intended consequences were also the result of the simulation (“It’s Quantum!”); these include vituperation and blowback on the US Deep State embedded for lo! these many years.
    – A popular mass uprising will take effect against the Derp State, and leftism/progressivism will finally be tossed out on its collective ear all over Western Civilization. It will be so thoroughly maligned, that it will finally end up on the ash heap of history, never to return.
    – The Betelgeusians will surreptitiously introduce an antidote into the ecosphere, thereby eradicating all further related susceptibility and deaths.
    – The Betelgeusians will look down on their handiwork with benign satisfaction.
    – Western Civilization will again have a chance to flourish like never before, entering a new Renaissance, and everybody will live happily ever after.

    There… don’t you like my story much better than all the other nonsense you’ve been pummeled with lately? (You can thank me later.)


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    Old News ;-)

    [Mar 28, 2020] No one of normal intelligence can avoid being a skeptic. We are all skeptics these days. The MSM is nothing but a lie-box, the blaring loudspeakers on every corner pouring out disinformation 24/7

    Mar 28, 2020 | www.unz.com

    anonymous [400] Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 26, 2020 at 10:13 pm GMT

    There are inevitably skeptics

    No one of normal intelligence can avoid being a skeptic. We are all skeptics these days. The MSM is nothing but a lie-box, the blaring loudspeakers on every corner pouring out disinformation 24/7. So if the story is that this is a killer virus many people assume just the opposite. It's clearly a golden opportunity for a massive power grab as well as tapping into the public till. Can't blame people for having become reflexive cynics. When the music stops we'll see who ends up with the chairs.

    [Mar 28, 2020] It is irresponsible to spread panic

    Mar 28, 2020 | angrybearblog.com

    Angry Bear " Mobile morgues in preparation

    Dan Crawford | March 27, 2020 8:48 pm

    Healthcare I just received this as a text from an ICU worker in a medium size hospital not in NY, CA, Washington, Illinois, nor Louisiana.
    1. Ken Houghton , March 27, 2020 11:20 pm

      Posting pictures from NJ , eh, Dan?

    2. likbez , March 28, 2020 1:04 am

      > Posting pictures from NJ, eh, Dan?

      It is irresponsible to spread panic in such cases.

      From what I see the spread of the virus is slightly slowing in the USA starting from March 21.

      It is still exponential but with lower base. So Trump assertion that in the second half of April the epidemic might subside is not completely out of touch with reality.

      Also effects from the measures which were put in place since March 11 only now start coming into play.

      I notices more and more people are wearing masks in public places.

      In some countries (Czech Republic is one example) appearance without a mask in public places now is a punishable offence.

      In Russia breaking mandatory 14 day quarantine for those who arrives from abroad is a punishable offence.

      Human societies are highly adaptable. Also losses so far did not lead to increased morality. Actually it is the first pandemic in history in which average weekly morality in certain countries either stayed the same or dropped. GB in February is one example.

      To provide you a proper perspective, the number of victims from COVID-19 for three month of the epidemic existence is slightly less than the number of births in three hours

      The UNICEF estimates that an average of 353,000 babies are born each day around the world.

    [Mar 28, 2020] Looks like in Italy Coronavirus mostly speed up the demise of already severely sick and very old persons.

    Mar 28, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Brabantian , says: Show Comment March 27, 2020 at 4:31 pm GMT

    Extensive details from medical professionals, on just what an exaggerated scam this coronavirus Covid-19 panic is

    In reality, what we have is a somewhat worse flu season 99% affecting the elderly and chronically ill, e.g., a young person dying turned out to have hidden leukemia

    'A Swiss Doctor on Covid-19'
    published by Swiss Propaganda Research
    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
    also here
    https://www.globalresearch.ca/swiss-doctor-covid-19/5707642
    (Much material is below the original article and footnotes, in the daily updates toward the bottom)

    [Hide MORE]

    Most major media falsely report that Italy has up to 800 deaths per day from the coronavirus. In reality, the president of the Italian Civil Protection Service stresses that these are deaths WITH the coronavirus and not FROM the coronavirus. In other words, these persons died while also testing positive [not nececessarily causal]

    Between those who died *from* the coronavirus and those who died *with* the coronavirus, it is not clear whether the person died from the pre-existing chronic diseases

    Renowned Italian virologist Giulio Tarro argues that the mortality rate of Covid19 is below 1% even in Italy and is therefore comparable to influenza. The higher values only arise because no distinction is made between deaths with and by Covid19 and because the number of (symptom-free) infected persons is greatly underestimated.

    Stanford Professor John Ioannidis showed that the age-corrected lethality of Covid19 is between 0.025% and 0.625%, i.e. in the range of a strong cold or the flu

    A Japanese study showed that of all the test-positive cruise passengers, and despite high average age, 48% remained completely symptom-free; even among the 80-89 year olds 48% remained symptom-free, while among 70 to 79 year olds it was an astounding 60% that developed no symptoms at all.

    The Italian example has shown that 99% of test-positive deaths had one or more pre-existing conditions, and even among these, only 12% of the death certificates mentioned Covid19 as a causal factor.

    Average age of the positively-tested deceased in Italy is currently about 81 years. 10% of the deceased are over 90 years old. 90% of the deceased are over 70 years old.

    80% of the deceased had suffered from two or more chronic diseases. 50% of the deceased had suffered from three or more chronic diseases.

    Less than 1% of deceased were healthy persons

    Northern Italy has one of the oldest populations and the worst air quality in Europe, which had already led to an increased number of respiratory diseases and deaths in the past

    Italian newspaper Corriere della Sera points out that Italian intensive care units already collapsed under the marked flu wave in 2017/2018.

    Argentinean virologist and biochemist Pablo Goldschmidt explains that Covid19 is no more dangerous than a bad cold or the flu.

    Dr. Goldschmidt speaks of a „global terror" created by the media and politics. Every year, he says, three million newborns worldwide and 50,000 adults in the US alone die of pneumonia.

    German Professor Karin Moelling, former Chair of Medical Virology at the University of Zurich, stated in an interview that Covid19 is „no killer virus" and that „panic must end".

    Countries like South Korea and Japan that introduced no lockdown measures have experienced near-zero excess mortality in connection with Covid-19

    Swiss deaths so far were also high-risk patients with chronic diseases, an average age of more than 80 years and a maximum age of 97 years

    According to all current data, for the healthy general population of school and working age, a mild to moderate course of Covid-19 can be expected.

    Official data on deaths from pneumonia in the US. There are usually between 3000 and 5500 deaths per week and thus significantly more than the current figures for Covid19

    [Mar 27, 2020] Fauci backtracking on the severity of COVID started

    Mar 27, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Allen , Mar 27 2020 13:43 utc | 197

    It appears that Oz himself is backtracking a bit on the severity of COVID:

    On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%.4 In another article in the Journal, Guan et al.5 report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity.

    If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively.

    - Anthony Fauci

    https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

    [Mar 27, 2020] As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK

    Mar 27, 2020 | www.theamericanconservative.com

    robt Ossian the Bard 11 hours ago

    From the UK Government: Status of COVID-19

    As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK....They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.

    The Advisory Committee on Dangerous Pathogens (ACDP) is also of the opinion that COVID-19 should no longer be classified as an HCID.
    https://www.gov.uk/guidance...

    [Mar 27, 2020] As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK

    Mar 27, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    DeQuincey , Mar 27 2020 0:16 utc | 91

    "As of 19 March 2020, COVID-19 is no longer considered to be a high consequence infectious diseases (HCID) in the UK."

    Quietly announced by the UK government on March 23rd.

    dennis , Mar 27 2020 1:00 utc | 94

    DeQuincey | Mar 27 2020 0:16 utc | 91

    UK downgrades SARS CoV 2 /COVID -19

    One of the UK's top experts seems to have backtracked over his predictions to the significance of this virus:
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/international-news/disease/ferguson-reverses-his-claims-on-the-virus-were-wrong/

    Armstrong interpets:
    "Ferguson now says both that the U.K. should have enough ICU beds and that the coronavirus will probably kill under 20,000 people in the U.K. and interestingly he now admits that more than half of whom would have died by the end of the year in any case because they were so old and sick. Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within "two to three weeks" after advocating 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary."

    Imperial College (Ferguson's Employer) Twitter a/c says it differntly:
    He told the committee current predictions were that the NHS would be able to cope if strict measures continued to be followed.

    Professor Ferguson, who is also Director of MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, added: "There will be some areas that are extremely stressed but we are reasonably confident – which is all we can be at the current time – that at the national level we will be within capacity."

    [Mar 26, 2020] Feamongering about with young patient from the NYT

    Looks like another NYT dirty trick.
    Note the author: Fiona Lowenstein is a writer, producer, and yoga teacher and the founder of the queer feminist wellness collective, Body Politic.
    Fiona did not tell us whether the patient has any illicit drug history or smoked marijuana, etc. Most "waping pneumonia" victims were young.
    Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Anon [279] Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 6:04 am GMT

    @Trinity How about this one from the NYT:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-young-people.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

    I'm 26. Coronavirus Sent Me to the Hospital.
    I'm 26. I don't have any prior autoimmune or respiratory conditions. I work out six times a week, and abstain from cigarettes. I thought my role in the current health crisis would be as an ally to the elderly and compromised. Then, I was hospitalized for Covid-19.

    That night I woke up in the middle of the night with chills, vomiting, and shortness of breath. By Monday, I could barely speak more than a few words without feeling like I was gasping for air. I couldn't walk to the bathroom without panting as if I'd run a mile. On Monday evening, I tried to eat, but found I couldn't get enough oxygen while doing so. Any task that was at all anxiety-producing -- even resetting my MyChart password to communicate with my doctor -- left me desperate for oxygen.

    While I was shocked at the development of my symptoms and my ultimate hospitalization, the doctors and nurses were not at all surprised. After I was admitted, I was told that there was a 30-year-old in the next room who was also otherwise healthy, but who had also experienced serious trouble breathing. The hospital staff told me that more and more patients my age were showing up at the E.R. I am thankful to my partner for calling the hospital when my breathing worsened, and to the doctor who insisted we come in. As soon as I received an oxygen tube, I began to feel slight relief. I was lucky to get to the hospital early in the crisis, and receive very attentive care.

    This one is even worse:
    What I learned when my husband got sick with coronavirus
    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/magazine/coronavirus-family.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

    Agathoklis , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 7:01 am GMT
    @NPleeze The reason younger Americans are dying is because Americans are extremely unhealthy. I wager all the very sick younger Americans are obese, probably with diabetes, don't exercise, and eat unhealthy foods, leading to heart and other weaknesses.

    Precisely. We have received several reports recently of young people being hospitalised and some even dying. However, the reports do not specify the condition of those young people. In places like the US, the youth are very unhealthy so it would not surprising to discover the youth requiring hospitalisation are obese or drug takers.

    eterike , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 12:44 pm GMT
    @Anon

    How about this one from the NYT:

    Hmmm, let's look at the author.

    Fiona Lowenstein is a writer, producer, and yoga teacher and the founder of the queer feminist wellness collective, Body Politic.

    From her selfie, she also appears to be an Orthodox Jew, though apparently one of those classic New York breakaway (sorta) types.

    Now, did anyone from the Times validate her story? Of course they didn't. They are desperate for stories like this. My guess is the entire thing is made up. She looks perfectly well in her few other hospital selfies on her Instagram. You think people like this wouldn't rig those photos?

    PS -- Her Instagram has a number of bikini shots. Guess what that means.

    Anonymous [249] Disclaimer , says: Show Comment Next New Comment March 26, 2020 at 12:48 am GMT

    @Anon

    I'm 26. I don't have any prior autoimmune or respiratory conditions. I work out six times a week, and abstain from cigarettes.

    The highly specific listing of non-symptoms suggests that the patient did have other co-morbidities, such as obesity, diabetes etc. Did he/she smoke weed? Smoke cigarettes in the past ?

    If he/she had been entirely healthy prior to the infection, he could simply have said so.

    [Mar 26, 2020] Another coup is happening now

    Mar 26, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Allen , Mar 25 2020 18:26 utc | 12

    Another coup is happening here:

    Stop the $6 Trillion Coronavirus Corporate Coup!
    Matt Stoller

    What Is In This Bill?

    Congress is going to pass a bill with a lot of important stuff for workers, hospitals, cities and small business, and to address the pandemic. That's inevitable. And the bill on the table includes some of this. The question though is what else the bill includes, and that's where we get into trouble. Because while we have to deal with the pandemic and crisis, we do not have to fundamentally eliminate the economic rights of all of us in the process.

    Now, first I should say I don't have the final deal in hand because it's not public. I have only seen versions of the negotiating text. But I'm fairly sure most of these provisions haven't changed, because the final sticking points were over various direct pandemic spending pieces. If I get that wrong, I'll tell you in an update.

    On Saturday, I went over the Christmas wish list of corporate lobbyists in this process, everything from Adidas letting people deduct gym costs to candymakers seeking a $500 million loan to Jeff Bezos and Elon Musk seeking $5B in loans for their space corporations. Of course what Wall Street sought, and got, dwarfed all of these requests.

    Here's how you can tell. A lot of reporters have been talking about how this is a $2 trillion deal, with a bunch of spending for hospitals and whatnot. But last night White House advisor Larry Kudlow announced it is actually a $6 trillion deal. And business reporter Charlie Gasparino said he's hearing chatter that the total will be $10 trillion! Say what?!?

    Charles Gasparino
    @CGasparino

    i hear its $10 trillion or higher when all is said and done


    Matt Stoller @matthewstoller

    People are not internalizing what is happening. A $6 trillion credit allocation to Wall Street isn't a corporate handout, it's a coup. These numbers are a thorough restructuring of America.


    March 24th 2020


    How does this work? How can Wall Street have one impression of the amount of money, and everyone else have a different impression? Easy. Confusion, lying and bad reporting. If important people don't talk about the boring sounding big stuff, then us non-important people sound crazy or nerdy mentioning it. It's a giant game of social climbing, and the goal is to make all of us afraid to point out what's going on. (Incidentally I hope Rep. Brad Sherman, who is an accountant and a key anti-bailout leader, really delves into this.)

    So let's talk about the big stuff that McConnell, Schumer and Pelosi are hiding.
    The bill establishes a series of boring-sounding slush funds, and these will be given strange alphabet soup names by the Federal Reserve and Treasury, names like 'special purpose vehicle' and 'ABS' and 'TALF' and FDIC bank guarantees. That's where the real money is. Here are some of these slush funds, starting with the ones that are more understandable:

    $50 billion in loans and loan guarantees to airlines

    $8 billion in loans and loan guarantees to air cargo carriers

    $17 billion in loans and loan guarantees to "businesses critical to national security"

    A $425 billion fund for loans and investments to be used at the discretion of the Secretary of the Treasury, Steve Mnuchin. He can use it to loan money, buy stock, buy bonds, whatever.

    Obviously helping certain enterprises is important, so I'm not opposed to industry aid.
    But the terms and conditions matter, and based on what I'm seeing, I don't believe there will be meaningful restrictions on this aid. Executives and financiers are going to profit off of taxpayer money.

    So that's the stuff that's been reported. Here's what hasn't, and why the bill goes up in value to $6-10 trillion.

    An additional $4 trillion from the Federal Reserve in lending power to be lent to big corporations and banks.

    Authorization to bail out money market funds, multi-trillion dollar unregulated bank-like deposits for the superrich.

    Authorization for the the government through the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to guarantee trillions of dollars of risky bank debt.

    http://newlevellers.blogspot.com/2020/03/stop-6-trillion-coronavirus-corporate.html

    karlof1 , Mar 25 2020 18:48 utc | 13

    Allen @12--

    Stoller's concluding paragraphs:

    "We can fight this bill. Remember, Congress is going to pass a bill with a lot of important stuff for workers, hospitals, cities and small business, and to address the pandemic. That's inevitable. If we do stop it, Congress will simply pass the same bill, strip out all the slush funds, and take that stuff on in a few weeks. This is a crisis, they are getting sick, and they know we have to act.

    "Even if this bill passes, we can keep fighting against the misuse of such a giant corporate slush fund, and continue to build a left-right coalition against cronyism. The one thing I have learned in politics is that we are not powerless, if we are honest about the moral terms .

    "A lot of people are likely to die in the next few months, and it is going to be awful. And this is largely because of the same reckless leadership class that is now using this moment to hand political power over to financiers. But all of us are learning lessons about what it means to build a more resilient, free and democratic society and business community. My hope is that we can put those lessons to work, sooner rather than later." [My Emphasis]

    IMO, the ideological basis for the coming conflict within the Outlaw US Empire are now set with more people becoming aware daily--The Moral High Ground of caring for people first versus the immoral gutter of catering to Wall Street's parasites to continue to feed of the body politic which will outweigh any benefits provided for the public.

    anony , Mar 25 2020 19:28 utc | 21
    This hoax has been such a bonus for some bad actors. Bibi is one, but someone at Wall Street got gifted 1.5 Trillions while the stimulus package is a few billions.
    How do I know it is an hoax? Total mortality has been declining for 5 weeks in Europe, as it does every winter. The site is produced by a collaboration of 40+
    european academic institutions

    http://www.euromomo.eu/slices/map_2017_2020.html

    Copeland , Mar 25 2020 19:41 utc | 25
    I wonder if history will record that this Coronavirus was like a Global Reichstag Fire? Wall Street is the Matchmaker to this marriage of globalization and Big Brother. If Netanyahu can have a coup like this, who's to say that the template can not be made to order for other nations in the West? The disruption of assembles is the key to this. "Shelter-in-Place" isolation, and the restriction of movement, are the novel constructions that could help push this catastrophe forward.

    [Mar 26, 2020] Wake Up! Your Fears Are Being Manipulated

    Mar 26, 2020 | www.theamericanconservative.com

    I'm not worried about the guy coughing next to me. I'm worried about the ones who seem to be looking for Jim Jones.

    Jones was the charismatic founder of the cult-like People's Temple. Through fear-based control, he took his followers' money and ran their lives. He isolated them in Guyana where he convinced over 900 of them to commit suicide by drinking cyanide-laced grape Kool Aid. Frightened people can be made to do anything. They just need a Jim Jones.

    So it is more than a little scary that media zampolit Rick Wilson wrote to his 753,000 Twitter followers: "People who sank into their fear of Trump, who defended every outrage, who put him before what they knew was right, and pretended this chaos and corruption was a glorious new age will pay a terrible price. They deserve it." The tweet was liked over 82,000 times.

    The New York Times claims that "the specter of death speeds across the globe, 'Appointment in Samara'-style, ever faster, culling the most vulnerable." Others are claiming Trump will cancel the election to rule as a Jim Jones. "Every viewer who trusts the words of Earhardt or Hannity or Regan could well become a walking, breathing, droplet-spewing threat to the public," opined the Washington Post . Drink the damn Kool Aid and join in the panic en route to Guyana.

    The grocery store in Manhattan, just after the announcement of the national state of emergency, was pure panic. I saw a fight break out after an employee brought out paper towels to restock the shelf and someone grabbed the whole carton for himself. The police were called. One cop had to stay behind to oversee the lines at the registers and maintain order. To their credit, the NYPD were cool about it. I heard them talk down one of the fighters, saying, "You wanna go to jail over Fruit Loops? Get a hold of yourself." Outside New York, sales of weapons and ammunition spiked .

    Panic seems to be something we turn on and off, or moderate in different ways. Understanding that helps reveal what is really going on.

    No need for history. Right now, in real time, behind the backs of the coronavirus, is the every-year, plain-old influenza. Some 12,000 people have died, with over 13 million infected from influenza just between October 2019 and February 2020. The death toll is screamingly higher (as of this writing, coronavirus has infected 60,653 and killed 819 Americans). Bluntly: more people have already died of influenza in the U.S. than from the coronavirus in China, Iran, and Italy combined. Double in fact. To be even blunter, no one really cares, even though a large number of bodies are piling up. Why?

    The first cases of the swine flu, H1N1, appeared in April 2009. By the time Obama finally declared a national emergency seven months later, the CDC was reporting that 50 million Americans, one in six people, had been infected, and 10,000 Americans had died. In the early months, Obama had no HHS secretary or appointees to the department's 19 key posts, as well as no commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, no surgeon general, no CDC director. The vacancy at the CDC was especially important because in the early days of the crisis, only they could test for the virus (sound familiar?). Yet some 66 percent of Americans thought the president was protecting them. There was no panic. Why?

    Of course, Trump isn't Obama. But if you really think it is that black and white, that one man makes that much difference in the multi-leveled response of the vast federal government, you don't know much about bureaucracy. Most of the people who handled the swine flu are now working the coronavirus, from the rank and file at CDC, HHS, and DHS to headliners like Drs. Andrew Fauci (in government since 1968, worked ebola) and Deborah Brix (in government since 1985, prior to corona was an Obama AIDS appointee).

    Maybe the most salient example is 9/11. Those who lived through it remember it well, the color threat alerts, the jihadi cells around every corner, the sense of learned/taught helplessness. The enemy could be anywhere, everywhere, and we had no way to fight back. But because the Dems and Repubs were saying the same thing, there was a patina of camaraderie to it (led by Rudy Giuliani and Mike Bloomberg, where are they now?), not discord. But the panic was still very real.

    Why? We panicked when people took steps to ensure we would. We were kept calm when there was nothing to gain by spurring us to panic (the swine flu struck in the midst of the housing crisis; there was enough to worry about). After 9/11, a fearful populace not only supported everything the government wanted to do, they demanded more. Nearly everyone cheered the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and not believing the government meant you were on their side. The Patriot Act, which did away with whole swaths of the Bill of Rights, was overwhelmingly supported. There was no debate over torture, offshore penal colonies, assassinations, kidnappings, and all the little horrors. The American people counted that as competent leadership and re-elected George W. Bush. Fear was political currency.

    Need a 2020 example of how to manipulate panic? Following fears of a liquid bomb, the TSA limited carry-on liquids to four ounces for years. Can't be too careful! Yet because of corona, they just changed the limit for hand sanitizer only (which, with its alcohol content, is actually flammable, as opposed to say, shampoo) to 12 ounces. Security theater closed down alongside Broadway tonight.

    False metrics are also manipulative because they make fear seem scientific. We ignore the low death rate and focus on the number of tests done. But whatever we do will never be enough, never can be enough, the same way any post-disaster aid is never delivered quick enough because the testing is not (just) about discovering the extent of the virus. For those with naughty motives, it is about creating a race we can't win, so testing becomes proof of failure. Think about the reality of "everyone who wants one should get a test." The U.S. has 331 million people. Testing 10 percent of them in seven days means 4,714,285 individuals a day while the other 90 percent hold their breath. Testing on demand is not realistic at this scale. Selective decision-based testing is what will work.

    South Korea, held up as the master of mass testing, conducted at its peak about 20,000 a day. Only 4 percent were positive, a lot of effort for a little reassurance. Tests are valuable to pinpoint the need for social distancing, but blunt tools like mass social distancing (see China) also work. Tests do not cure the virus. You can hide the number of infections by not testing (or claim so to spur fear), but very sick people make themselves known at hospitals and actual dead bodies are hard to ignore. Tests get the press, but actual morbidity is the clearest data point.

    There will be time for after-action reviews and arguments over responsibility. That time is never in the midst of things, and one should question the motives of journalists who use rare access to the president to ask questions meant largely to undermine confidence. If they succeed, we will soon turn on each other. You voted for him; that's why we're here now. Vote for Bernie and Trump wins and we all literally die. You bought the last toilet paper. You can afford treatment I can't. You're safe working from home while I have to go out. Just wait until the long-standing concept of medical triage is repackaged by the media as "privilege" and hell breaks loose in the ERs. We could end up killing each other even as the virus fades.

    At the very least, we will have been conditioned to new precedents of control over personal decisions, civil life, freedom of movement and assembly, whole city lockdowns, education, and an increasing role for government and the military in health care. Teachers, don't be surprised if less of you, and fewer classrooms, are needed in the virus-free future, in favor of more classes online. It's almost as if someone is taking advantage of our fears for their own profits and self-interest.

    There are many reasons to take prudent action. There are no good reasons for fear and panic. The fear being promoted has no rational basis compared to regular influenza and the swine flu of 2009. We have a terrifying example in 9/11 of how easily manipulated fearful people are. Remaining calm and helping others do so is a big part of what your contribution to the disaster relief could be.

    That's one way to see this. Too many right now, however, seem to be looking for Jim Jones.

    Peter Van Buren, a 24-year State Department veteran, is the author of We Meant Well: How I Helped Lose the Battle for the Hearts and Minds of the Iraqi People, Hooper's War: A Novel of WWII Japan , and Ghosts of Tom Joad: A Story of the #99 Percent.

    [Mar 26, 2020] This is about more then American gullibilty

    Mar 26, 2020 | www.unz.com

    refl , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 9:53 am GMT

    @Gleimhart Mantooso

    show me where all the non-gullible people live

    You are right. While corona in my view is absolutely bonkers, and as my conviction mounts with every half witted calculation that I come across, it gains its own dimension in reality. The cause is non-existent but the consequences are real:
    People die in overwhelmed hospitals in run down health systems. The world economy is breaking down, as it was going to anyhow. The convenient scapegoat has been found and the interest for the PTB to allow the truth to come out is zero.
    Will we get laws that make Corona-denial illegal? Because it dishonors the dead and traumatizes their families?

    I am praying to Saint Ron to fearlessly tell the truth, but he goes corona full steam.

    I have written this before. My Damaskus moment was Kiew in february 2014. Since then I have known that the same people who were behind that thing would set my country and the world on fire in time.
    I marvel at their inventiveness.

    This is about more then American gullibilty.

    Anonymous [545] Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 10:14 am GMT

    Similarly, once government lockdowns or other similar measures are taken, the doubling-period of the infection becomes much longer.

    I'm pretty certain that there's no doubling once a country, (province, city, whatever) enacts a relatively comprehensive lockdown and people themselves take it seriously. I'm in one of those countries and if I look around it's clear that the R0 ratio is way below 1. Probably less than 0.1 to be honest.

    If I remember correctly, COVID-19 R0 ratio in China was somewhere around 3.5 when the country was still figuring it out. That's a horrible number but it's easy to see how it can be brought down to a tiny fraction when 95% of risky contacts get removed and the remaining 5% approached with protective gear and caution. The virus doesn't stand a chance in that kind of environment.

    So, the numbers in my neck of the woods will almost certainly start decreasing rapidly in the coming weeks but the problem of international travel will remain for many months (years?).

    [Mar 26, 2020] Reflections on a Century of Junk Science

    Highly recommended!
    Mar 26, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Kratoklastes , says: Show Comment Next New Comment March 25, 2020 at 6:16 pm GMT

    @thotmonger

    I also remember some of early estimates of Mad Cow disease in humans in UK and they turned out to be very exaggerated.

    When the political class was trying to de-gay HIV/AIDS in 1987, they had Oprah tell everyone that 20% of heterosexual people would be dead before 1990.

    The first I learned of Oprah's jaw-droppingly sensationalist remarks, was in a piece a couple of days ago on AmericanThinker (which sounds like a rare bird indeed, if not an outright oxymoron – but it has good stuff from time to time).

    Anyhow, it was an interesting piece – entitled " Reflections on a Century of Junk Science " by the author of " Hoodwinked: How Intellectual Hucksters Have Hijacked American Culture ", which I will acquire today. (The book's 11 years old, but sounds like it will be along the same lines as Kendrick's " Doctoring Data: How to Sort Out Medical Advice from Medical Nonsense ", which was excellent).

    [Mar 26, 2020] 'The director of the German National Health Institute (RKI) confirmed that they count all test-positive deaths, irrespective of the actual cause of death, as coronavirus deaths". The average age of the deceased is 82 years, most with serious preconditions. As in most other countries, excess mortality due Covid19 is likely to be near zero in Germany.'

    Mar 26, 2020 | www.unz.com

    cranc , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 8:04 am GMT

    I think that Ron Unz is gravely mistaken in his analysis here.
    There is a growing body of opinion amongst medical professionals and academics that questions the benefits of a lockdown balanced against what we know of the danger from the virus. Ron has not included any of this in his article here, and he should.
    Studies are emerging which are indeed showing that infection stats may be orders of magnitude higher than official estimates, that hospitalisation rates are therefore much lower, and the overall threat overshaddowed by the consequences of closing down the economy and open society.
    As ever the media is the prime culprit in spreading fear and hysteria. Alt media have an obligation to question the very basis of the covid pandemic response.
    'The director of the German National Health Institute (RKI) confirmed that they count all test-positive deaths, irrespective of the actual cause of death, as „coronavirus deaths". The average age of the deceased is 82 years, most with serious preconditions. As in most other countries, excess mortality due Covid19 is likely to be near zero in Germany.'
    https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
    12 experts speak out:
    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/
    From yesterday in WSJ ('Is The Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?'):
    https://archive.fo/cgCff
    A study from Oxford University Epdemiologists confirming doubts about lethality:
    https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model%20%2813%29.pdf?dl=0
    Even the UK government website confirms that the covid virus has been re-classified as no longer on the register of High Consequence Infectious Diseases (on March 19th, just before the government closed down the whole society).
    There is more going on here than the virus. Maybe it is incompetence and panic, or something more disturbing. Either way, alt media voices have a duty to report the growing doubt about how deadly this virus really is or isn't.
    Alfred , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 9:01 am GMT

    According to Dr. Ferguson the "best case" scenario is that the Coronavirus will kill over a million Americans.

    According to the pie chart below, which is based on the Italian experience, 99.2% of those who die have one or more pre-existing health condition. I suspect that if you were to exclude those under 60, the result would go up to 99.9%

    This data strongly suggests that only those who are over 60 should be obliged to remain at home. This virus has seemingly been going around the USA since last September and a lot of those who caught it and died were classified as flu victims or something else.

    Every year, several millions die in the USA. That is normal. The deaths allegedly from this virus would have probably died anyway. At worst, their useless lives would have been curtailed by one or two years. Don't forget that 90% of a person's lifetime health costs are expended in the past year of "life". BTW, I am 69 so don't accuse me of ageism or any such nonsense please.

    [Mar 26, 2020] Accuracy of death data is high suspect

    Mar 26, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Realist , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 11:24 am GMT

    Similarly, New York reported its first death on March 14th. Yet just ten days later, deaths in that state were running at 50 per day, and rapidly accelerating.

    You mean first death attributed to Covid-19 after testing started. How many died of Covid-19 before testing? It is not known at what stage of the epidemic, testing started therefore accuracy of data is suspect.

    [Mar 26, 2020] Virus hype and Hubei province reality

    Mar 26, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Weston Waroda , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 3:22 pm GMT

    The Coronavirus epidemic may soon produce the greatest American disaster since our Civil War over 150 years ago, and numbers reveal the possible magnitude.

    The current data out of China, and Wuhan in particular, suggest otherwise. They have closed all 19 temporary hospitals set up there to treat the coronavirus infections. The only way you can believe a minimum of one million Americans will die from the coronavirus is to believe that these figures from Hubei province have been falsified in some way.

    Hubei, China
    Confirmed: 67,801
    Deaths: 3,163
    Recovered: 60,811
    Existing: 3,827

    Nevertheless, your figures are very sobering.

    [Mar 26, 2020] There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.

    Mar 26, 2020 | www.unz.com

    follyofwar , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 3:26 pm GMT

    @niteranger When considering what the authorities, both medical and political, are constantly telling us about how deadly this pandemic is, I think back to my college Statistics course of nearly 50 years ago. On the first day of class the professor told the old joke that "there are lies, damned lies, and statistics." I'm sure most who read here have heard of that bromide, but it is still well to keep it in mind. Don't forget, most have an agenda.

    [Mar 26, 2020] If the New York Post is correct in reporting that half the UK population have already been infected with Covid-19, while only 422 deaths have resulted, we can infer that the death rate from this virus is in the order of 0.0006%, give or take the odd zero.

    Mar 26, 2020 | www.unz.com

    CanSpeccy , says: Website Show Comment Next New Comment March 25, 2020 at 5:03 pm GMT

    If the New York Post is correct in reporting that half the UK population have already been infected with Covid-19 , while only 422 deaths have resulted, we can infer that the death rate from this virus is in the order of 0.0006%, give or take the odd zero.

    If that's the case, then maybe I don't need to worry that most of the people where I live seem, like St-Germain, above, too dumb to understand the meaning of the term social distancing .

    [Mar 26, 2020] In Italy for seniors in high risk group time between symptoms and death is just around eight day

    Mar 26, 2020 | www.lastampa.it

    For the victims of coronavirus the median time from the first symptoms to hospitalization is 4 days, and the median time to death is 8 days, according to a report by the Italian National Institute of Health.

    The study comes as the number of Covid-19 deaths in the country continues to increase. On Wednesday, the number of people who have died from coronavirus jumped to 2,978, recording the largest one-day increase - 475 - since the beginning of the outbreak, while the​​​​​​​ number of infected people rose to over 28,000.

    According to the study, which was run on 2,003 patients who have died from coronavirus, the most affected region is Lombardy reporting around 71.1% of the deaths, followed by Emilia-Romagna (17.3%) and Veneto (3.9%).

    The​​​​​​​ median age of death is 80.5 while the median age of the people who got infected is 63. As of March 17, among the coronavirus victims only 17 people were younger than age 50 and only 30% were women. The​​​​​​​ majority of patients were treated with antibiotics (83%), while antiviral therapies were used in 52% of cases.

    According to the study, most of the people who have died suffered from previous illnesses before contracting the coronavirus. Based on a sample of 355 out of 2003 fatalities, the institute found that almost half of the victims had three or more illnesses, a quarter had either two or one prior medical condition - such as high blood pressure (76%), diabetes (35.5%) and heart disease (33%) - and only 3 people, or 0.8% of the sample, had no previous illnesses.

    [Mar 26, 2020] Oxford's Centre for Evidence Based Medicine is providing regular updates of an estimate of the infection fatality rate for Covid-19. Their current estimate is 0.20% (95% CI, 0.17 to 0.25).

    Mar 26, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Ami , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 6:36 am GMT

    @NPleeze Oxford's Centre for Evidence Based Medicine is providing regular updates of an estimate of the infection fatality rate for Covid-19. Their current estimate is 0.20% (95% CI, 0.17 to 0.25).

    Two Stanford doctors writing in The Wall Street Journal suggest that the fatality rate could be as low as 0.01%, which is about one-tenth the mortality of seasonal flu. They suggest that a better strategy than widespread lockdowns would be to focus on protecting vulnerable members of the population, particularly the elderly.

    Both of these estimates would result in far, far fewer deaths than the garbage-in garbage-out models produced by Imperial College and others.

    [Mar 25, 2020] When stat-molesters jump in to inform me that pneumonia is known, but COVID-19 is new its spread could be exponential

    Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Will , says: Show Comment Next New Comment March 25, 2020 at 7:01 pm GMT

    "This, of course, is when stat-molesters jump in to inform me that pneumonia is known, but COVID-19 is new & its spread could be exponential

    BUT, you'd need to base this on something far less moronic than using infection & death rates among the sick to project to the population"

    https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/1242487066711273473

    "So far we know:
    -tests have large error margin
    -positive tests only associated with small chance of being sick
    -vast majority of COVID-19 cases have other serious diseases
    -We have 80x more pneumonia cases than COVID-19

    Are these good reasons to suspend the lives of billions?"

    https://twitter.com/saifedean/status/1242489837409701894

    [Mar 25, 2020] The critique of one simplistic model

    Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

    NPleeze , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 5:10 am GMT

    the Coronavirus death statistics are certainly far more solid and reliable

    But still quite unreliable. Nobody knows what tests are being performed or how accurate those tests are. For all we know they are calling flu/pneumonia deaths as COVID-19 deaths, whether deliberately/recklessly (pressured) or because the tests are simply faulty.

    If we assume a mortality rate of 1%

    Based on what? As noted, the best case of a general population exposure is the Diamond Princess – where all passengers were exposed fully for 2 weeks and then under terrible quarantine conditions for 4 weeks. Of the 3,177 passengers and crew, some 677 (20%) took ill, and 7 (0.2% of the population, and 1% of the ill) died, all of them in their 70s and older (and indeed the data released by the Japanese health ministry indicates the ship had twice the number of people in each age category 60-79, 70-79, and 80+ than does the US).

    Conveniently, everyone repeating the hysteria line completely omits to look at the best data available.

    Number of infected = Number of Deaths / Mortality_Rate * 2^(Mortality_Period/Doubling_Period)

    Nothing in nature is exponential as everything runs up against some barrier, usually sooner than later. I can make the argument about rabbit reproduction: each female rabbit can produce 60 rabbits per year in three litters. This would indicate that each male/female pair increases 10-fold every 3 months – a far faster growth rate than your virus. And under certain conditions, they can, for a time, accomplish that before they hit the proverbial brick wall.

    Let's look at Italy. The first recorded death (FWIW) was Feb. 21. Now using your assumptions, there had been 100 new infections three weeks earlier (on Jan. 31). Next, as you assume a doubling-period of 6 days, those 100 infections would have increased to 100 x 2^(37/6) = 7,183 infections by the time of March 8, when the emergency orders went into effect. However, on March 8 there had already been 366 deaths. Since the disease, according to your model, takes 3 weeks to kill, this means we need to look at the number of infections on Feb. 21, which, in your model, equals 100 x 2^(21/6) = 1,131.

    In other words, on Feb. 21 there were 1,131 persons infected, and of those, 366 had died by March 8. For a mortality rate of 32.3%.

    But let's work backwards from another date. By Mar. 24, there had been 6,820 deaths. To arrive at that, using your assumed death rate, that means by Mar. 3, 682,000 people had to be infected (since 1% of them would die within 3 weeks). Which means, according to your model, that 341,000 were infected on Feb. 26, 170,500 on Feb. 20. But your model already showed that only 1,131 were infected on Feb. 21.

    In other words, this "model" is utter bunk.

    What we do know is as follows: the death rate on the Diamond Princess, under terrible conditions, was 0.2%, all over 70.

    The global death rate is about 18,000 dead out of 7 billion. The annual tuberculosis death number is between 1 and 2 million.

    That people who are very old (and thus have compromised immune systems) or people who have various chronic diseases are the ones who die from this disease. This is because the virus can attack numerous receptors, including those in the kidney, liver, heart, white blood cells, and pancreas (a sort of "frankenstein" bio-engineered virus). Thus anyone with a weak pancreas (diabetes), kidney, liver, heart (hypertension, etc.), or lungs (smokers, etc.) are susceptible to having an organ fail.

    The death rate will grow only among this segment of the population. It is enough to isolate them (or, better yet, have them self-isolate).

    The reason younger Americans are dying is because Americans are extremely unhealthy. I wager all the very sick younger Americans are obese, probably with diabetes, don't exercise, and eat unhealthy foods, leading to heart and other weaknesses.

    All of this apart from the issue, of how long this virus has been in the wild. It seems my mother caught this disease in early February, in a small Midwestern isolated community – she had what are given at the symptoms, but nobody was looking for it at the time, so there is no diagnosis of her illness.

    OscarWildeLoveChild , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 12:38 pm GMT
    @NPleeze 12 experts tend to agree with you

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/

    Isn't the real issue this (numerically and culturally): we have a health care system, which is obviously not made to provide services to every single American whenever they need it, all at the same time , and this pandemic is likely to kill say, a million old people (given how large our overall population is), and since no one "gets" to just die (ala Soylent Green) but instead gets sick at 70, 80, etc and has to be preserved forever so anything that "burns" through what would be an otherwise healthy population, as with all animals (including humans) historically, instead becomes such a serious risk (if not somewhat random) to the old or infirm, that we shut everything down, potentially causing all sorts of other human catastrophes so that some old folks get to choose another death (maybe the flu?) over a Covid-19 death?

    Long run on sentence, but isn't that really what this is all about now ?

    [Mar 25, 2020] An error occurred.

    Mar 25, 2020 | www.youtube.com

    Try watching this video on www.youtube.com , or enable JavaScript if it is disabled in your browser.

    [Mar 25, 2020] Fearmongering via mathiness: Neill Ferguson of Imperial College London argues that every fatality represents an infected population one thousand strong.

    The gullibility of population might have been temporarily upped by Covid-19 worries
    Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Bmac says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 12:28 pm GMT 100 Words Neill Ferguson of Imperial College London argues that every fatality represents an infected population one thousand strong.

    See:

    https://www.youtube.com/embed/4g7Qpvhh5m4?feature=oembed

    He notes:

    A case fatality rate of 1% – which means that on average, every fatality at the time of their infection represents a population of one hundred.

    Given the rate of transmission, those one hundred will infect another nine hundred during the average incubation period of three weeks.

    [Mar 25, 2020] Via the CDC As of March 20, 2020 there Are 100 times as many Flu Deaths in US this Season than Coronavirus Deaths

    Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Agent76 , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 2:22 pm GMT

    March 20, 2020 STUNNING! Via the CDC As of Friday There Are 100 TIMES AS MANY Flu Deaths in US this Season than Coronavirus Deaths

    According to the weekly CDC flu report -- flu deaths are up by 1,000 over last week. And according to the global coronavirus trackers US coronavirus deaths are up by 218 this week.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/03/stunning-via-the-cdc-as-of-friday-there-are-100-times-as-many-flu-deaths-in-us-this-season-than-coronavirus-deaths/

    Nov 4, 2019 Event 201 Pandemic Exercise: Segment 4, Communications Discussion and Epilogue Video

    Event 201 is a pandemic tabletop exercise hosted by The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. The exercise illustrated the pandemic preparedness efforts needed to diminish the large-scale economic and societal consequences of a severe pandemic.

    [Mar 25, 2020] Does virus spread exponentially

    Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

    utu , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 11:20 am GMT

    @Agathoklis
    "Italian deaths are not rising exponentially. "

    I am pretty sure they were in the initial period but once the epidemic spreads into areas with different population densities where doubling periods are different and when new countermeasures are being implemented you will see departures from the exponential growth.

    Even w/o countermeasures when more and more people get infected the reproduction number R0 will be getting smaller resulting in a steady decrease of the exponential coefficient.

    Zhanwei Du et al. studied the exponential growth in Wuhan in the period before quarantine was imposed. See the Appendix in

    https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/20-0146_article
    The COVID-19 epidemic was growing exponentially during December 1, 2019– January 22, 2020, as determined by the following: dI(t) = I0 × exp(λ × t) in which I0 denotes the number of initial cases on December 1, 2019, and λ denotes the epidemic growth rate during December 1, 2019–January 22, 2020.

    What is important about Ron Unz approach is that by looking at daily death increments one can gage the number of new infections and as the epidemic progresses the changes in doubling period would be adjusted from daily death increments.

    In times when very few tests are being done to asymptomatic patients and no serum tests are performed to determine who already went through infection and recovered this approach is very useful and simple method to estimate the extent of the epidemic.

    [Mar 25, 2020] Difificulties of correctly estimating mortality

    Notable quotes:
    "... The reason younger Americans are dying is because Americans are extremely unhealthy. I wager all the very sick younger Americans are obese, probably with diabetes, don't exercise, and eat unhealthy foods, leading to heart and other weaknesse ..."
    "... I share your skepticism. Do the "tests" prove that COVID-19 causes illness? Is it possible that some or even all of the deaths associated with COVID-19 have been primarily caused by other factors? Is it possible that COVID-19 is very widespread in contemporary populations and is harmless in most or even all people in which it exists? ..."
    Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Pft , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 4:51 am GMT

    "However, the Coronavirus death statistics are certainly far more solid and reliable"

    Are they really?

    Report shows up to 88% of Italy's alleged Covid19 deaths could be misattributed

    "The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus [ ] On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity – many had two or three,"

    – Professor Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy's minister of health
    Report in English:

    https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_20_marzo_eng.pdf

    Truth3 , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 4:55 am GMT
    @Trinity Trinity, I'm about 99% sure I had this thing.

    Stay safe. It's brutal.

    Let the assholes like utu, FB, Frannie, CoMike, Lot, and all their (((kind))) get it.

    What comes around goes around. Zio-Bio didn't end with Dr. Zack.

    NPleeze , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 5:10 am GMT

    the Coronavirus death statistics are certainly far more solid and reliable

    But still quite unreliable. Nobody knows what tests are being performed or how accurate those tests are. For all we know they are calling flu/pneumonia deaths as COVID-19 deaths, whether deliberately/recklessly (pressured) or because the tests are simply faulty.

    If we assume a mortality rate of 1%

    Based on what? As noted, the best case of a general population exposure is the Diamond Princess – where all passengers were exposed fully for 2 weeks and then under terrible quarantine conditions for 4 weeks. Of the 3,177 passengers and crew, some 677 (20%) took ill, and 7 (0.2% of the population, and 1% of the ill) died, all of them in their 70s and older (and indeed the data released by the Japanese health ministry indicates the ship had twice the number of people in each age category 60-79, 70-79, and 80+ than does the US).

    Conveniently, everyone repeating the hysteria line completely omits to look at the best data available.

    Number of infected = Number of Deaths / Mortality_Rate * 2^(Mortality_Period/Doubling_Period)

    Nothing in nature is exponential as everything runs up against some barrier, usually sooner than later. I can make the argument about rabbit reproduction: each female rabbit can produce 60 rabbits per year in three litters. This would indicate that each male/female pair increases 10-fold every 3 months – a far faster growth rate than your virus. And under certain conditions, they can, for a time, accomplish that before they hit the proverbial brick wall.

    Let's look at Italy. The first recorded death (FWIW) was Feb. 21. Now using your assumptions, there had been 100 new infections three weeks earlier (on Jan. 31). Next, as you assume a doubling-period of 6 days, those 100 infections would have increased to 100 x 2^(37/6) = 7,183 infections by the time of March 8, when the emergency orders went into effect. However, on March 8 there had already been 366 deaths. Since the disease, according to your model, takes 3 weeks to kill, this means we need to look at the number of infections on Feb. 21, which, in your model, equals 100 x 2^(21/6) = 1,131.

    In other words, on Feb. 21 there were 1,131 persons infected, and of those, 366 had died by March 8. For a mortality rate of 32.3%.

    But let's work backwards from another date. By Mar. 24, there had been 6,820 deaths. To arrive at that, using your assumed death rate, that means by Mar. 3, 682,000 people had to be infected (since 1% of them would die within 3 weeks). Which means, according to your model, that 341,000 were infected on Feb. 26, 170,500 on Feb. 20. But your model already showed that only 1,131 were infected on Feb. 21.

    In other words, this "model" is utter bunk.

    What we do know is as follows: the death rate on the Diamond Princess, under terrible conditions, was 0.2%, all over 70.

    The global death rate is about 18,000 dead out of 7 billion. The annual tuberculosis death number is between 1 and 2 million.

    That people who are very old (and thus have compromised immune systems) or people who have various chronic diseases are the ones who die from this disease. This is because the virus can attack numerous receptors, including those in the kidney, liver, heart, white blood cells, and pancreas (a sort of "frankenstein" bio-engineered virus). Thus anyone with a weak pancreas (diabetes), kidney, liver, heart (hypertension, etc.), or lungs (smokers, etc.) are susceptible to having an organ fail.

    The death rate will grow only among this segment of the population. It is enough to isolate them (or, better yet, have them self-isolate).

    The reason younger Americans are dying is because Americans are extremely unhealthy. I wager all the very sick younger Americans are obese, probably with diabetes, don't exercise, and eat unhealthy foods, leading to heart and other weaknesses.

    All of this apart from the issue, of how long this virus has been in the wild. It seems my mother caught this disease in early February, in a small Midwestern isolated community – she had what are given at the symptoms, but nobody was looking for it at the time, so there is no diagnosis of her illness.

    alan kerns , says: Show Comment March 25, 2020 at 5:15 am GMT
    @Trinity

    I share your skepticism. Do the "tests" prove that COVID-19 causes illness? Is it possible that some or even all of the deaths associated with COVID-19 have been primarily caused by other factors? Is it possible that COVID-19 is very widespread in contemporary populations and is harmless in most or even all people in which it exists?

    These questions deserve forensically rigorous investigation – conducted and reported honestly.

    [Mar 25, 2020] Analogy between coronavirus epidemic estimates and lacrosse popularity estimates

    Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

    prime noticer says: Show Comment Next New Comment

    March 25, 2020 at 5:51 pm GMT this entire thread is a false positive.

    i estimate based on the rapid growth of lacrosse that in only a few years time, it will overtake football as the most popular sport in america.

    see how this works?

    [Mar 25, 2020] PCR detects DNA or RNA of both live and dead organisms, positive test results may be achieved even if the infection has been controlled

    Notable quotes:
    "... Also, one must know the tests specificity and disease prevalence. If specificity is 99.5% and disease prevalence is 0.5%, testing everyone regardless of symptoms or risk will yield 50% false positives (half the positives are false). ..."
    "... The tests on the market are self validated. FDA does not review manufacturers data. No tort liability for covid 19 tests or vaccines ..."
    "... Likewise I would not trust data from anywhere given the nature of the tests. At the end of the day we will need to look for any bump in total deaths from all causes, population reduction and age data to estimate the impact ..."
    "... There is obviously a lot of profit incentive for making people believe there is a threat, which is why our trusted and reliable MSM play it up. ..."
    Mar 25, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Pft , Mar 24 2020 23:40 utc | 104

    US has actually performed over 150,000 tests. The problem is too much testing.

    PCR detects DNA or RNA of both live and dead organisms, positive test results may be achieved even if the infection has been controlled

    Also, one must know the tests specificity and disease prevalence. If specificity is 99.5% and disease prevalence is 0.5%, testing everyone regardless of symptoms or risk will yield 50% false positives (half the positives are false).

    The tests on the market are self validated. FDA does not review manufacturers data. No tort liability for covid 19 tests or vaccines

    China did very little testing the first 2 months the disease wa spreading. We now know retrospectively the first case was November 17, and expanded testing did not begin until Jan 18 after 16 consecutive days of no new cases. Lockdown did not begin until Jan 23. Its impossible for the virus to have been contained in Hubei as we are led to believe from data reported from other provinces

    Likewise I would not trust data from anywhere given the nature of the tests. At the end of the day we will need to look for any bump in total deaths from all causes, population reduction and age data to estimate the impact

    There is obviously a lot of profit incentive for making people believe there is a threat, which is why our trusted and reliable MSM play it up. But for some reason the so called evils of capitalism and fake news MSM are ignored by the most faithful opponents of both in support of the Pandemic Vaccine Industrial Complex

    [Mar 25, 2020] 12 Experts Questioning the Coronavirus Panic – OffGuardian

    Notable quotes:
    "... The state governments prefer that all schools be closed while Canberra is receiving advice from Dr Brendan Murphy, Chief Health Officer of Australia, that schools not be closed because children would be at more risk of picking up COVID-19 from adults at home, and from congregating in areas where they are not being supervised by adults if they decide not to stay at home for various reasons (because among other things they would also be at risk from domestic violence). ..."
    "... Please don't feel brainwashed into taking totally unnecessary extra precautions beyond normal levels of hygiene in order to protect yourself from a common coronavirus. ..."
    "... The behavior of elites across the globe suggest a level of collective anxiety not seen in before in my lifetime. Certainly endless decades of oligarchic control maintained through keeping Western populations mystified by means of coordinated mass propaganda – has seen rather significant cracks develop through the emergence of progressive independent journalism shared across the world via the web. One would think those ever widening cracks in the indoctrination system have perhaps clarified for our betters that their fairy tales are falling upon ever greater numbers of deaf ears around the globe. ..."
    "... Given currently unfolding events one is tempted to think that elites – perhaps rather than being left to respond to events completely out of their control – like a system-crashing spontaneous economic collapse – are collectively choosing to instead to – "control what they can" – through this supposed 'pandemic' response operation. ..."
    "... That this over the top elite led pandemic response appears an effort to lead the credulous masses into whatever straightjacket has been prepared for us is simply impossible to ignore. ..."
    Mar 24, 2020 | off-guardian.org

    Below is our list of twelve medical experts whose opinions on the Coronavirus outbreak contradict the official narratives of the MSM, and the memes so prevalent on social media.

    * * *

    Dr Sucharit Bhakdi is a specialist in microbiology. He was a professor at the Johannes Gutenberg University in Mainz and head of the Institute for Medical Microbiology and Hygiene and one of the most cited research scientists in German history.

    What he says:

    We are afraid that 1 million infections with the new virus will lead to 30 deaths per day over the next 100 days. But we do not realise that 20, 30, 40 or 100 patients positive for normal coronaviruses are already dying every day.

    [The government's anti-COVID19 measures] are grotesque, absurd and very dangerous [ ] The life expectancy of millions is being shortened. The horrifying impact on the world economy threatens the existence of countless people. The consequences on medical care are profound. Already services to patients in need are reduced, operations cancelled, practices empty, hospital personnel dwindling. All this will impact profoundly on our whole society.

    All these measures are leading to self-destruction and collective suicide based on nothing but a spook.

    https://www.youtube.com/embed/JBB9bA-gXL4

    *

    Dr Wolfgang Wodarg is a German physician specialising in Pulmonology, politician and former chairman of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. In 2009 he called for an inquiry into alleged conflicts of interest surrounding the EU response to the Swine Flu pandemic.

    What he says:

    Politicians are being courted by scientists scientists who want to be important to get money for their institutions. Scientists who just swim along in the mainstream and want their part of it [ ] And what is missing right now is a rational way of looking at things.

    We should be asking questions like "How did you find out this virus was dangerous?", "How was it before?", "Didn't we have the same thing last year?", "Is it even something new?"

    That's missing.

    https://www.youtube.com/embed/p_AyuhbnPOI

    *

    Dr Joel Kettner s professor of Community Health Sciences and Surgery at Manitoba University, former Chief Public Health Officer for Manitoba province and Medical Director of the International Centre for Infectious Diseases.

    What he says :

    I have never seen anything like this, anything anywhere near like this. I'm not talking about the pandemic, because I've seen 30 of them, one every year. It is called influenza. And other respiratory illness viruses, we don't always know what they are. But I've never seen this reaction, and I'm trying to understand why.

    [ ]

    I worry about the message to the public, about the fear of coming into contact with people, being in the same space as people, shaking their hands, having meetings with people. I worry about many, many consequences related to that.

    [ ]

    In Hubei, in the province of Hubei, where there has been the most cases and deaths by far, the actual number of cases reported is 1 per 1000 people and the actual rate of deaths reported is 1 per 20,000. So maybe that would help to put things into perspective.

    Audio Player 00:00 00:00 00:00 Use Up/Down Arrow keys to increase or decrease volume.

    *

    Dr John Ioannidis Professor of Medicine, of Health Research and Policy and of Biomedical Data Science, at Stanford University School of Medicine and a Professor of Statistics at Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences. He is director of the Stanford Prevention Research Center, and co-director of the Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS).

    He is also the editor-in-chief of the European Journal of Clinical Investigation. He was chairman at the Department of Hygiene and Epidemiology, University of Ioannina School of Medicine as well as adjunct professor at Tufts University School of Medicine.

    As a physician, scientist and author he has made contributions to evidence-based medicine, epidemiology, data science and clinical research. In addition, he pioneered the field of meta-research. He has shown that much of the published research does not meet good scientific standards of evidence.

    What he says :

    Patients who have been tested for SARS-CoV-2 are disproportionately those with severe symptoms and bad outcomes. As most health systems have limited testing capacity, selection bias may even worsen in the near future.

    The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

    [ ]

    Could the Covid-19 case fatality rate be that low? No, some say, pointing to the high rate in elderly people. However, even some so-called mild or common-cold-type coronaviruses that have been known for decades can have case fatality rates as high as 8% when they infect elderly people in nursing homes.

    [ ]

    If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to "influenza-like illness" would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average.

    – "A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data", Stat News , 17th March 2020

    *

    Dr Yoram Lass is an Israeli physician, politician and former Director General of the Health Ministry. He also worked as Associate Dean of the Tel Aviv University Medical School and during the 1980s presented the science-based television show Tatzpit.

    What he says :

    Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country. In the US about 40,000 people die in a regular flu season and so far 40-50 people have died of the coronavirus, most of them in a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington.

    [ ]

    In every country, more people die from regular flu compared with those who die from the coronavirus.

    [ ]

    there is a very good example that we all forget: the swine flu in 2009. That was a virus that reached the world from Mexico and until today there is no vaccination against it. But what? At that time there was no Facebook or there maybe was but it was still in its infancy. The coronavirus, in contrast, is a virus with public relations.

    Whoever thinks that governments end viruses is wrong.

    – Interview in Globes , March 22nd 2020

    *

    Dr Pietro Vernazza is a Swiss physician specialising Infectious Diseases at the Cantonal Hospital St. Gallen and Professor of Health Policy.

    What he says:

    We have reliable figures from Italy and a work by epidemiologists, which has been published in the renowned science journal ‹Science›, which examined the spread in China. This makes it clear that around 85 percent of all infections have occurred without anyone noticing the infection. 90 percent of the deceased patients are verifiably over 70 years old, 50 percent over 80 years.

    [ ]

    In Italy, one in ten people diagnosed die, according to the findings of the Science publication, that is statistically one of every 1,000 people infected. Each individual case is tragic, but often – similar to the flu season – it affects people who are at the end of their lives.

    [ ]

    If we close the schools, we will prevent the children from quickly becoming immune.

    [ ]

    We should better integrate the scientific facts into the political decisions.

    – Interview in St. Galler Tagblatt , 22nd March 2020

    *

    Frank Ulrich Montgomery is German radiologist, former President of the German Medical Association and Deputy Chairman of the World Medical Association.

    What he says :

    I'm not a fan of lockdown. Anyone who imposes something like this must also say when and how to pick it up again. Since we have to assume that the virus will be with us for a long time, I wonder when we will return to normal? You can't keep schools and daycare centers closed until the end of the year. Because it will take at least that long until we have a vaccine. Italy has imposed a lockdown and has the opposite effect. They quickly reached their capacity limits, but did not slow down the virus spread within the lockdown.

    – Interview in General Anzeiger , 18th March 2020

    *

    Prof. Hendrik Streeck is a German HIV researcher, epidemiologist and clinical trialist. He is professor of virology, and the director of the Institute of Virology and HIV Research, at Bonn University.

    What he says :

    The new pathogen is not that dangerous, it is even less dangerous than Sars-1. The special thing is that Sars-CoV-2 replicates in the upper throat area and is therefore much more infectious because the virus jumps from throat to throat, so to speak. But that is also an advantage: Because Sars-1 replicates in the deep lungs, it is not so infectious, but it definitely gets on the lungs, which makes it more dangerous.

    [ ]

    You also have to take into account that the Sars-CoV-2 deaths in Germany were exclusively old people. In Heinsberg, for example, a 78-year-old man with previous illnesses died of heart failure, and that without Sars-2 lung involvement. Since he was infected, he naturally appears in the Covid 19 statistics. But the question is whether he would not have died anyway, even without Sars-2.

    – Interview in Frankfurter Allgemeine , 16th March 2020

    *

    Dr Yanis Roussel et. al. – A team of researchers from the Institut Hospitalo-universitaire Méditerranée Infection, Marseille and the Institut de Recherche pour le Développement, Assistance Publique-Hôpitaux de Marseille, conducting a peer-reviewed study on Coronavirus mortality for the government of France under the 'Investments for the Future' programme.

    What they say :

    The problem of SARS-CoV-2 is probably overestimated, as 2.6 million people die of respiratory infections each year compared with less than 4000 deaths for SARS-CoV-2 at the time of writing.

    [ ]

    This study compared the mortality rate of SARS-CoV-2 in OECD countries (1.3%) with the mortality rate of common coronaviruses identified in AP-HM patients (0.8%) from 1 January 2013 to 2 March 2020. Chi-squared test was performed, and the P-value was 0.11 (not significant).

    [ ]

    it should be noted that systematic studies of other coronaviruses (but not yet for SARS-CoV-2) have found that the percentage of asymptomatic carriers is equal to or even higher than the percentage of symptomatic patients. The same data for SARS-CoV-2 may soon be available, which will further reduce the relative risk associated with this specific pathology.

    – "SARS-CoV-2: fear versus data", International Journal of Antimicrobial Agents , 19th March 2020

    *

    Dr. David Katz is an American physician and founding director of the Yale University Prevention Research Center

    What he says :

    I am deeply concerned that the social, economic and public health consequences of this near-total meltdown of normal life -- schools and businesses closed, gatherings banned -- will be long-lasting and calamitous, possibly graver than the direct toll of the virus itself. The stock market will bounce back in time, but many businesses never will. The unemployment, impoverishment and despair likely to result will be public health scourges of the first order.

    – "Is Our Fight Against Coronavirus Worse Than the Disease?", New York Times 20th March 2020

    *

    Michael T. Osterholm is regents professor and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

    What he says :

    Consider the effect of shutting down offices, schools, transportation systems, restaurants, hotels, stores, theaters, concert halls, sporting events and other venues indefinitely and leaving all of their workers unemployed and on the public dole. The likely result would be not just a depression but a complete economic breakdown, with countless permanently lost jobs, long before a vaccine is ready or natural immunity takes hold.

    [ ]

    [T]he best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work, keep business and manufacturing operating, and "run" society, while at the same time advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as aggressively as possible. With this battle plan, we could gradually build up immunity without destroying the financial structure on which our lives are based.

    – "Facing covid-19 reality: A national lockdown is no cure", Washington Post 21st March 2020

    *

    Dr Peter Goetzsche is Professor of Clinical Research Design and Analysis at the University of Copenhagen and founder of the Cochrane Medical Collaboration. He has written several books on corruption in the field of medicine and the power of big pharmaceutical companies.

    What he says :

    Our main problem is that no one will ever get in trouble for measures that are too draconian. They will only get in trouble if they do too little. So, our politicians and those working with public health do much more than they should do.

    No such draconian measures were applied during the 2009 influenza pandemic, and they obviously cannot be applied every winter, which is all year round, as it is always winter somewhere. We cannot close down the whole world permanently.

    Should it turn out that the epidemic wanes before long, there will be a queue of people wanting to take credit for this. And we can be damned sure draconian measures will be applied again next time. But remember the joke about tigers. "Why do you blow the horn?" "To keep the tigers away." "But there are no tigers here." "There you see!"

    – "Corona: an epidemic of mass panic", blog post on Deadly Medicines 21st March 2020


    Gary Wilson ,

    What happened in Wuhan will eventually happen everywhere. Any new pathogen will rapidly spread in the susceptible population (those with some degree of a compromised immune system). After a period there will be no more susceptible people left to infect and the disease will disappear. Government regulations to prevent the spread is of no use if someone infected with the pathogen can infect others before they get the symptoms that they have the disease. Lots of money is spent fighting the virus (there is money to be made!) while no money is spent to improve the immune system of those people with weakened immune systems.

    fred ,

    Btw, the only major sporting event still going on right now is the Chess Candidates Tournament (which is a qualification for the World Championship) taking place in Yekaterinburg, Russia. (Which has freezing temperatures right now and is covered in snow.)

    Players get a health check up twice daily, but are not tested for the coronavirus specifically. This means that if any one of the players gets a cold or mild temperature: coronavirus!

    Therefore I expect the tournament to be halted mid-way any day now. (Also if one of the players feels like the tournament is not going well, or that his preparation is not working, they might pretend to be sick to get the tournament postponed.)

    https://www.chess.com/news/view/coronavirus-testing-at-fide-candidates-chess-tournament

    Norman Pilon ,

    BTW: is that 12 or 13 experts?

    fred ,

    Tokyo 2020: Olympic and Paralympic Games postponed because of coronavirus (was scheduled for 24 July in Japan)
    Chess Olympiad postponed (was scheduled for August 5-17 in Russia)
    UEFA postpones EURO 2020 (was scheduled for June/July)

    Norman Pilon ,

    Nice! You've saved me and a lot of other people a lot of time. Of course, I'm also sharing this through the miracle of 'copying-and-pasting.'

    Doctortrinate ,

    oh, yeah – lets blitz those oppressive nasties !

    there's nothing greater than you and me .Love will conquer if you just believe .

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WmPeLOLDnA

    Jen ,

    Dear Off-Guardian,

    You may be well aware that the Australian Federal government is at loggerheads with New South Wales and Victorian state governments over the issue of closing all schools.

    The state governments prefer that all schools be closed while Canberra is receiving advice from Dr Brendan Murphy, Chief Health Officer of Australia, that schools not be closed because children would be at more risk of picking up COVID-19 from adults at home, and from congregating in areas where they are not being supervised by adults if they decide not to stay at home for various reasons (because among other things they would also be at risk from domestic violence).

    Please find at this link an article which among other things gives the opinions of various medical and health experts who oppose the closure of schools during the current lock-downs here in Australia.

    An example of such advice from the Australian Health Protection Principal Committee:

    The AHPPC met on Tuesday 17 March to consider the issue of school closures in relation to the community transmission of COVID‑19. The Committee's advice is that pre-emptive closures are not proportionate or effective as a public health intervention to prevent community transmission of COVID-19 at this time Previous studies suggest that the potential reduction in community transmission from pre‑emptive school closures may be offset by the care arrangements that are in place for children who are not at school. Children may require care from older carers who are more vulnerable to severe disease, or may continue to associate (and transmit infection) outside of school settings. Broadly, the health evidence on school closures from previous respiratory epidemics shows the costs are often underestimated and the benefits are overestimated. This may be even more so in relation to COVID-19 as, unlike influenza, the impact on otherwise healthy children has been minimal to date. School closure is associated with considerable costs. Studies have estimated that around 15% of the total workforce and 30% of the healthcare workforce may need to take time off work to care for children. This burden will be significant and will fall disproportionately on those in casual or tenuous work circumstances. At this stage, the spread of COVID-19 in the community is at quite low levels. It may be many months before the level of Australian community infection is again as low as it is at the moment More than 70 countries around the world have implemented either nationwide or localised school closures, at different times in the evolution of the local COVID-19 epidemic, however it should be noted the majority of these have not been successful in controlling the outbreak. Some of these countries are now considering their position in relation to re-opening schools. Singapore has had success in limiting the transmission of COVID-19 in the community without closing schools" [however the successful period in Singapore coincided with school holidays and when students returned they were temperature-tested ]

    Antonym ,

    This cure is worse than the disease, true.

    Governments made lock downs in haste, erring on the heavy handed side just to be "sure". Who can prove them wrong afterwards? The voters.

    Airplanes have been the worse spreaders.

    Some religious preachers have shown to be immune to public self isolate calls in Asia.

    Maybe a good Global practice run for when a really deadly virus breaks loose?

    Let East Asian and central African wildlife wet markets be forbidden and enforced with long jail and financial sentences.

    Virus Guy ,

    Nonsense. It was not in haste or error. No government is going to hastily shut down its economy out of too much tender concern for its citizens, and we have teams of analysts and advisors on infectious disease working for governments who would never have advised this insane level of 'precautions ' for a moderate coronavirus showing no evidence of extreme infectivity or fatality.

    As in China the reaction has anticipated a non-existent problem and then gone beyond any accepted protocol to 'respond.' This has all the hallmarks of an entirely manufactured crisis.

    Virus Guy ,

    Please don't feel brainwashed into taking totally unnecessary extra precautions beyond normal levels of hygiene in order to protect yourself from a common coronavirus.

    fred ,

    [Potential False-Positive Rate Among the 'Asymptomatic Infected Individuals' in Close Contacts of COVID-19 Patients] https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32133832/?fbclid=IwAR1x58i9MUS16isOtdzAOJHr1TZNpVz4kw-6S5mtyRG_MUg3XVK_RajavAI

    Results: When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives.

    Gary Weglarz ,

    The behavior of elites across the globe suggest a level of collective anxiety not seen in before in my lifetime. Certainly endless decades of oligarchic control maintained through keeping Western populations mystified by means of coordinated mass propaganda – has seen rather significant cracks develop through the emergence of progressive independent journalism shared across the world via the web. One would think those ever widening cracks in the indoctrination system have perhaps clarified for our betters that their fairy tales are falling upon ever greater numbers of deaf ears around the globe.

    Given currently unfolding events one is tempted to think that elites – perhaps rather than being left to respond to events completely out of their control – like a system-crashing spontaneous economic collapse – are collectively choosing to instead to – "control what they can" – through this supposed 'pandemic' response operation.

    That is to initiate a prefabricated "response" – proactively to a projected impending system catastrophe that is only a matter of time. Or perhaps this is simply a "testing operation," a "dry run" so to speak for when the uncontrollable event that crashes the system does take place. A chance to gauge public reactions and further fine tune future response options?

    That this over the top elite led pandemic response appears an effort to lead the credulous masses into whatever straightjacket has been prepared for us is simply impossible to ignore.

    Gary Weglarz ,

    On the breathtaking clairvoyance of our wealthiest elites:

    https://www.youtube.com/embed/QA183AnUxMM?version=3&rel=1&fs=1&autohide=2&showsearch=0&showinfo=1&iv_load_policy=1&wmode=transparent

    fred ,

    youtube.com/watch?v=lUXHB5U-Vl4

    Croach ,

    And here we have it.
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    Slight uptick in overall registered deaths although still below average for this time of year. But they've omitted the figures for deaths where the underlying cause was respiratory illness. I can think of no legitimate reason why they would do so.

    These are registered deaths, everybody knows they don't represent the true current number of deaths.

    There is no legitimate rationale for 'waiting for more accurate data' or any such excuse. Even if the data is incomplete it's published. It's a registry of deaths not an adjusted death rate.

    I really can't keep a sense of humour about this. Or take any satisfaction from 'knowing better' or 'I told you so'. I thought what was happening now would be a process of years. I don't expect sites like this will survive very long, regardless of how fringe or maligned they are.

    I'd like to say invest in printing presses. But it's probably too late for that now.

    fred ,

    So on the one hand we get: "Don't travel! Close the borders! Stop the virus!"
    And on the other:
    Government tells New Zealanders to come home
    US government tells citizens to come home
    Australia tells citizens to come home
    Canadians abroad urged to come home
    Norway urges citizens to return home

    Does this not contradict their own narrative? Does this not show how it's all bullshit?

    Donna ,

    Excellent post! Thank you.

    We have a new religion sweeping over the Earth claiming new adherents in nearly every country! 😄
    https://www.maravipost.com/covid-19-and-common-sense-religion/

    Terje Maloy ,

    The cat is slowly being let out of the bag Recently leaked (or unofficially released) Norwegian government papers says the Corona measures are expected to be in place for 12 to 18 months, not just for a few weeks. Presumably it will be the same in as good as every (NATO)-country.

    The emergency laws introduced in Norway are conspicuously similar to a highly unusual law proposal for increased government powers in case of a civil emergency from September 2019, now they have been rushed through parliament.

    paul ,

    Don't worry, folks, pandemics are profitable.
    Bezos dumped $3 billion of stock just before the crash.
    Makes Feinstein's paltry $6 million look like chump change.

    Boeing want $60 billion, the airlines want $50 billion (for starters), $150 billion for hotels, a trillion or so for shopping malls. A few billion here, a few billion there, and pretty soon you're talking serious oney.
    $3 trillion to date, but have patience, it's early days yet.

    We can all rest easy.
    The billionaires will emerge with their wealth more than doubled, just like last time.
    Certainly puts my mind at rest.

    Savorywill ,

    We can rest easy because the government will just print more money. Plenty to go around! Every one gets $3000 plus insurance covers their absent paychecks, so everything is back to normal, money wise, and no one has to do anything. This can probably go on forever, until trucking companies also go out of business, so no food or supplies can be transported into NYC, and then the shit will well and truly hit the fan. I don't think AOC's green new deal will be of much use in such a situation But, hopefully, it won't come to that.

    xdream ,

    Somewhere further down this thread somebody used the word:

    Plandemic.

    Could I suggest another variant on this theme a mutant perhaps:

    Scamdemic.

    [Mar 25, 2020] Now that the panic's been hyped up, there's no way out. For reasons of how democracy works, the panic will be appeased

    When experts directly or indirectly have monetary interest in certain outcome they are not expect, they are lobbyists.
    Mar 25, 2020 | www.unz.com

    AaronInMVD says: Website Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 12:01 am GMT 100 Words @Anon For reasons of math and historic examples of how viral pandemics work in mammals, the fastest way out would be to do nothing and ignore the virus so that it burns through quickly. This happens with surprising frequency when the folks picking strain for the year's flu vaccine guess wrong. And, no business is non-essential to the people depending on it for their livelihood. So far Most people getting sick with the COVID-19 get unpleasantly sick or don't realize they were sick. 99% of the fatalities are in the morbidly old or morbidly ill.

    Now that the panic's been hyped up, there's no way out. For reasons of how democracy works, the panic will be appeased. Expensively. Very Expensively.

    More will suffer and experience pre-mature mortality due to the economic consequences of the panic than than virus itself, because the economic damage here is going to last far longer.

    [Mar 25, 2020] A new study shows the coronavirus mortality rate in Wuhan, China, may have been lower than previous estimates

    Mar 25, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Allen , Mar 24 2020 16:00 utc | 8

    A new study shows the coronavirus mortality rate in Wuhan, China, may have been lower than previous estimates.

    According to research published in the monthly Nature Medicine journal, the death rate from the coronavirus disease, COVID-19, in Wuhan -- the epicenter of the global outbreak -- was 1.4%.

    "Using public and published information, we estimate that the overall symptomatic case fatality risk (the probability of dying after developing symptoms) of COVID-19 in Wuhan was 1.4%," reads the body_abstract of the study.

    The study -- titled "Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China" -- said the estimate was "substantially lower than both the corresponding crude or naive confirmed case fatality risk".

    Previous estimates placed the mortality rate in Wuhan between 2% to 3%.

    Underlining that fatality risk was higher for the elderly, the study found 2.6% mortality rate among people over 60 years in Wuhan, 0.5% for people aged between 30 to 59, and 0.3% for people under 30 years.

    The COVID-19 outbreak that started in Wuhan has been declared a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO).

    Data compiled by the U.S.-based Johns Hopkins University shows the virus has now spread to 167 countries and regions.

    Over 341,700 cases and 14,750 deaths have been reported worldwide since last December, while more than 98,860 people have recovered.

    Transmission in China has slowed down over recent weeks, with authorities reporting no new indigenous cases on Monday.

    There were also no new infections in Wuhan city for the fifth consecutive day, according to China's National Health Commission.

    https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/covid-19-wuhan-death-rate-lower-than-prior-estimates/1775864

    [Mar 25, 2020] COVID 19 vs seasonal flu

    Mar 25, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    brian , Mar 23 2020 21:30 utc | 78

    #COVIDー19 vs #flu
    'So far, #COVIDー19 has led to > 220,000 illnesses and >9,300 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu. In the US alone, flu has caused an estimated 36 million illnesses, 370,000 hospitalizations and 22,000 deaths this season, according to CDC. ' https://www.livescience.com/new-coronavirus-compare-with-flu.html

    [Mar 24, 2020] Most humans were busy working and stay afoot to question what network TV the fishwraps told them about 911 or coronavirus. The level of detachment from reality due intensive tabloid indoctrination is simply amazing.

    Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    A User , Mar 24 2020 8:29 utc | 194

    FFS can we stop with the endless debate about who did what to whom in the early days of this virus' existence?
    Not only are such debates entirely pointless because it is out among us now, it is pointless because whether they want it or not a full investigation including non-fiction backtrace is inevitable if we the people who look past the lies, play our cards right.

    It has been said that like 911 the coronavirus pandemic will be a game-changer, that is the world will be different after the lockdowns, lies and beat ups than it was before.

    There is however one major difference. Most humans were busy working and looking to keep their families going to do more than lap up what network TV & the fishwraps told them about 911. The far from reality attitudes too many still hold, date from that intensive tabloid indoctrination.

    This time is pretty much opposite, people are stuck at home with too much time to think, but not enough they believe they can do.

    If ever there was a time when it was possible to assist our fellow humans to see the world as it is rather than how the media tells them it is, that time is right now.

    Many humans are already pissed about this; plans they had made for their 2020 are kyboshed, no one really trusts politicians anymore so everyone is asking themselves if this enforced income cut is really as essential as the pols claim it is(sure some nations have trickled a little down for the durationbut even there no one is gonna be better off, everyone normal is going to be copping an income cut).
    That means most people are going to be somewhat resistant to the usual bland pol platitudes.
    Have no fear the neolibs see the danger and will be pumping out the bulldust 24/7, the difference this time is Jo/Joe Blow finally has the time to consider other points of view, especially those which are expressed entertainingly rather than didactically, so WTF are people wasting time and energy arguing the toss about matters of interest to so few other humans?

    I'm germinating a notion of what I am going to try to combat the tosh being pumped out by the elite it would be great if other humans considered the same as I'm certain most will come up with far better means to help others see than what I dream up.

    [Mar 24, 2020] An argument to be made that we are destroying economies and lives (and possibly killing far more people than Covid-19) in an hysterical over-reaction based on flawed modelling and sparse and unreliable data?...

    Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
    Allen | Mar 23 2020 20:33 utc | 55

    Allen , Mar 24 2020 1:29 utc | 127
    (Coronavirus is a fake emergency))

    I've also pondered the question of whether the 'cure' is worse than the 'disease' in net/overall effect. However, it's important to remember that the reason the pandemic has been declared an emergency IN EVERY COUNTRY, whether Commie or Fake Democracy, is that it's making people sick enough to require hospital treatment. And these patients are ADDITIONAL patients which the health system hadn't planned for. When the flood of COVID-19 patients eases, then hospitals will return to normal levels of bed vacancy - nationwide.

    For your preferred theory to be true, it would be necessary to prove that many, or most, of these extra patients are faking the seriousness of their illness AND the medics are too uneducated/inexperienced to tell the difference. You'd probably also have to prove that there are lots of people would rather be in hospital, pretending to be sick, than anywhere but hospital...

    Italy had an excess number of deaths attributed to influenza of 25,000 in the 2016/17 season, the last year numbers are available, what we are seeing at present is not an aberration from recent years as that 16/17 season was representative of recent trends. This is directly as a result of the severely degraded environment in which they live. As others have pointed out both the air and water quality in that region is horrendous- as it has become in recent years in Wuhan, Madrid and Tehran. One has to be beyond obstinate not to understand this and connect the dots.

    At present there is great uncertainty as to deaths from Covid versus deaths with Covid. In some reporting Covid deaths were identified using a case definition that included pulmonary disease e.g

    This distinction is crucial as it points to causal factors that allowed the virus to replicate, to flourish- and disputes the narrative that the corona virus (which BTW is decidedly not novel only this mutation is which brings us to another discussion) is the causal factor. The causal factors are the specific modes of production that created horrendous living conditions in these areas to begin with (most of the planet by now) which have destroyed people's abilities (immune system e.g.) to ward off disease.

    By focusing solely on the corona virus and considering it to be the causal factor this allows the capitalist class off the hook for being the very ones who have created the conditions for all sorts of diseases to proliferate. Further by keeping the focus solely on corona history tells us that the capitalists will not only use this for any draconian measures they deem "essential" but also a means to explore all manner of profiteering- the "next magic cure" (for the disease they created) being the most obvious pot of gold.

    If you want to pursue a more analytical line of inquiry start by examining the severely degraded air quality in Madrid, Wuhan, Tehran and the Po River Valley and the accompanying health problems in those areas and start connecting some dots.

    Some links:

    Richard , Mar 24 2020 7:08 utc | 183

    In the flu season 2015/2016, Italy reported 20,259 deaths attributable to influenza (just as now, these were almost all in the 65+ age group). (Source: Journal of Infectious Diseases)...and nobody proposed shutting down the world then. If it's now being suggested the virus has been around since November then the numbers don't add up even more (i.e. Italy's Covid-19 deaths so far are around the 6,000 mark which would make the virus far less deadly than the 2015/16 flu).

    Is there not an argument to be made (as says John P.A. Ioannidis -- professor of medicine and professor of epidemiology and population health at Stanford University) that we are destroying economies and lives (and possibly killing far more people than Covid-19) in an hysterical over-reaction based on flawed modelling and sparse and unreliable data?...

    https://richardhennerley.com/2020/03/23/enough-of-the-coronavirus-doom-porn-already/

    Hoarsewhisperer , Mar 24 2020 7:11 utc | 184

    Posted by: Allen | Mar 23 2020 20:33 utc | 55

    [Mar 24, 2020] Push back against virus fearmongering

    Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    SharonM , Mar 24 2020 1:41 utc | 129

    @97 Richard Steven Hack

    "The number of idiots everywhere on the Internet proclaiming the following:
    1) The virus won't prove to be any more dangerous than ordinary flu..."

    Yeah sure, we should have just shut up and believed...

    Russia interfered in the election
    Russia invaded Crimea
    Russia invaded Georgia
    Iran is making nuclear bombs
    The Skripals were poisoned by Russian agents
    Assad is using chemical weapons
    Saddam has weapons of mass destruction

    "etc, etc., ad nauseum.
    I could go on and on. The number of people who just *have to have an opinion* is staggering. And they'll argue that they're right until the cows come home."

    @99 Michael Weddington

    "The virus deniers here remind me of the global warming deniers."

    Why not holocaust deniers? In fact, since you didn't say holocaust deniers you must be an antisemite holocaust denier nazi, right? It's not like you two are at CNN's website, you're in the alternative media, where we actually questions things instead of just having blind faith.

    [Mar 24, 2020] In Italy the median age of those dying of the coronavirus is 81 and the population is very old and frail and smokes more. Most of the dead are men

    Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Arby , Mar 24 2020 7:16 utc | 185

    "Italy is known for its enormous morbidity in respiratory problems, more than three times any other European country. In the US about 40,000 people die in a regular flu season and so far 40-50 people have died of the coronavirus, most of them in a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington."

    "The characteristics in every country are different. In Italy the median age of those dying of the coronavirus is 81 and the population is very old and frail and smokes more and among the dead are more men." - Professor Yoram Lass / https://en.globes.co.il/en/article-lockdown-lunacy-1001322696

    [Mar 24, 2020] Exaggerated case fatality rate is not based on evidence. The evidence point out to mortality around 0.2 percent

    Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Pft , Mar 24 2020 1:34 utc | 128

    Exaggerated case fatality rate (CFR):

    https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/eci.13223

    European Journal of Clinical Investigation
    "Coronavirus disease 2019: the harms of exaggerated information and non‐evidence‐based measure
    John P.A. Ioannidis
    First published: 19 March 2020


    Early reported CFR figures seem exaggerated.

    The most widely quoted CFR has been 3.4%, reported by WHO dividing the number of deaths by documented cases in early March.

    This ignores undetected infections and the strong age-dependence of CFR. The most complete data come from Diamond Princess passengers, with CFR=1% observed in an elderly cohort; thus, CFR may be much lower than 1% in the general population; probably higher than seasonal flu (CFR=0.1%), but not much so.

    Observed crude CFR in South Korea and in Germany, , the countries with most extensive testing, is 0.9% and 0.2%, respectively as of March 14 and crude CFR in Scandinavian countries is about 0.1%. Some deaths of infected, seriously ill people will occur later, and these deaths have not been counted yet. However even in these countries many infections probably remain undiagnosed. Therefore, CFR may be even lower rather than higher than these crude estimate

    [Mar 24, 2020] Exponencial growth of the virus is not susptainable

    Notable quotes:
    "... "We showed that it was precisely the patients with the most acute symptoms who are the most infectious, both because of the high viral load [meaning, the amount of a virus in one's body] and also because of the increase in the number of encounters between people: The acute patients were dying, so everyone came to take their leave from them," Yamin says. "I was pleased that Liberia adopted our recommendations and isolated those who were seriously ill. In retrospect, we know that that new policy helped curb the epidemic." ..."
    "... the coronavirus can be expected to disappear from this region with the same dizzying speed with which it entered our lives ..."
    "... But in practice, the most rapid mutations occur in animals, and they only infect us then, and obviously it's less probable that we will be infected again by a bat in the near future. ..."
    "... "The actual number of people who are sick with the virus in South Korea is at least double what's being reported, so the chance of dying is at least twice as low, standing at about 0.45 percent – very far from the World Health Organization's [global mortality] figure of 3.4 percent. And that's already a reason for cautious optimism." ..."
    "... "And Netanyahu talked about a mortality rate of between 2 percent and 4 percent. And do you know what's most absurd? That in the final analysis [U.S. President Donald] Trump was right . Not that the coronavirus is just plain flu – it absolutely isn't – but as he put it: 'This is just my hunch – way under 1 percent' [will die].' ..."
    "... At some stage, we will have to resume a regular routine, and then the R0 will stabilize at 2 again. Effectively, we are delaying the inevitable. I have no criticism of the decisions made until now. On the contrary: With such a large area of uncertainty, Israel's decision makers are considering not only a reasonable scenario but also a margin of safety. ..."
    "... "It's not only a function of hygiene, it's mainly a function of contact between people. Picture the average old person. How many different people does he encounter in a day? And what is the nature of those encounters? The older we get, the less we caress and kiss others. Also, children constitute the only age group that comes into contact with all other age groups – not just theirs. That's why it is the key population in spreading respiratory diseases." ..."
    Mar 24, 2020 | www.haaretz.com

    Dr. Yamin is an engineer, not a physician. But in 2008, when he was a graduate student at Ben-Gurion University in Be'er Sheva, a certain research study caught his eye.

    "It was an analysis of a dynamic model for the spread of smallpox," Yamin, 38, says. "The researchers used tools from game theory. It was so interesting that I decided to conduct a similar study on influenza – which turned into a doctoral thesis on disease-spread models.

    "If, 40 or 50 years ago, epidemiology researchers came exclusively from the field of medicine, today we understand that in order to predict the spread of diseases, it's also necessary to understand how humans behave as a collective, to be able to analyze big data and to have the ability to create models and perform mathematical simulations – and for that you need engineers."

    Yamin encountered his first real epidemiological crisis while doing postdoctoral work at the the Center of Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at Yale University's school of public health.

    "At Yale we worked for three weeks, with almost no sleep, to create models based on engineering tools for the spread of Ebola. The dilemma of the Liberian health ministry regarded whom to prioritize, given a serious shortage of isolation facilities. The Liberians assumed that it would make more sense to quarantine those who were ill with less serious symptoms, because the others could not be saved in any case.

    "We showed that it was precisely the patients with the most acute symptoms who are the most infectious, both because of the high viral load [meaning, the amount of a virus in one's body] and also because of the increase in the number of encounters between people: The acute patients were dying, so everyone came to take their leave from them," Yamin says. "I was pleased that Liberia adopted our recommendations and isolated those who were seriously ill. In retrospect, we know that that new policy helped curb the epidemic."

    Yamin currently heads the Laboratory for Epidemic Modeling and Analysis in TAU's engineering faculty. His primary field of work is development of models for the spread of infectious diseases, with an emphasis on viruses responsible for respiratory ailments, such as flu and RSV (respiratory syncytial virus), which causes bronchitis. He is actually somewhat optimistic about the models he has developed for the spread of the coronavirus , which is also a respiratory disease.

    "The big, open question is what the chance is of dying from the virus," Yamin explains.

    "When you ask epidemiologists what the most important datum is concerning a virus, they will say it's the rate of the basic reproductive ratio, or R0 [often called "R nought"] – the average number of people a sick person will infect. That's an interesting question, but a theoretical one.

    "The R0 of measles is 12, meaning that each person who is ill with measles infects 12 people on average. However, only 5 percent of the population can actually be infected, because most of us have been immunized or had measles in the past. So that is the upper limit of its spread."

    But we know that the R0 of the coronavirus is 2, and we still don't know whether anyone is naturally immune to the disease.

    Yamin: "The overwhelming majority of people are apparently not immune, because it's not a common disease. After all, there is no precedent for such an infectious and violent type of virus from the corona family, so it's safe to assume that the majority has not been exposed to the virus before this and that they can be infected. However, that's not to say that the majority of the population will actually contract the disease.

    "The basic principle is that a virus with an R0 of 2 in a non-immune population can be expected to infect 50 percent of the population. After that the R0 will reach a value of 1 or less, and the disease will be contained. By the way, it will recede in a converging exponential; in other words, the coronavirus can be expected to disappear from this region with the same dizzying speed with which it entered our lives."

    But we don't know for certain whether a person can be infected twice.

    "No, but with the majority of viruses, if you're infected and you have recovered, you won't be re-infected, because of immunological memory. And if you are infected again, the symptoms will be less acute the second time. The exception to the rule is influenza: Its mutation frequency is so high that you can be infected by it year after year. Last year alone, the flu underwent 17 mutations. Whereas the last time we heard about corona was 17 years ago, with SARS. In other words, the coronavirus did not undergo mutations at the same frequency as the flu. Of course, the mutations themselves are a function of the number of infections: The more infections there are, the greater the likelihood that mutations will occur. But in practice, the most rapid mutations occur in animals, and they only infect us then, and obviously it's less probable that we will be infected again by a bat in the near future.

    "By the way, viral mutations are more frequent in bats, whose immune system is astonishingly weak, while their social network is extensive and characterized by a lot of interaction."

    So we're talking about maximum rate of infection – that is, of becoming a carrier – of 50 percent. That's still a lot of patients, a lot of hospitalizations and mainly a lot of deaths.

    "Again, the most interesting issue for decision makers is the mortality rate. When we look at the dry data, we see a very high mortality rate, of 4 to 7 percent, in countries like Italy and Spain, alongside far lower numbers in countries like Germany and South Korea.

    "And then there's China, though it's very difficult to believe the numbers coming out of there – and in any event no country in the West can allow itself to adopt the measures that China adopted to contain the spread. Now ask yourself: How do you check the mortality rate in all those countries? You take the total number of deaths and divide it by the total of reported patients."

    So the research is biased.

    "Very biased. If I can only carry out few tests, I will test those who have the highest chance of becoming ill, and then, when I check the mortality rate among them, I will get very high numbers. But there is one country we can learn from: South Korea. South Korea has been coping with corona for a long time, more than most Western countries, and they lead in the number of tests per capita. Therefore, the official mortality rate there is 0.9 percent. But even in South Korea, not all the infected were tested – most have very mild symptoms.

    "The actual number of people who are sick with the virus in South Korea is at least double what's being reported, so the chance of dying is at least twice as low, standing at about 0.45 percent – very far from the World Health Organization's [global mortality] figure of 3.4 percent. And that's already a reason for cautious optimism."

    'Worst-case scenario'

    Let's move from percents to people.

    "Just a minute. Although we're both Westernized countries, we are absolutely not South Korea. South Korea has one of the highest proportions of elderly people in the world, whereas Israel tops the graph in fertility, and we have a very young population. So, if we use the upper limit [of mortality] of South Korea and normalize the mortality rate for the population in Israel, we are talking about the probability of a mortality rate of 0.3 percent among those who have been infected.

    "Now we'll go to a severe scenario in which no one is immune and every second person is sick, so that the disease is incapable of spreading further – namely, a situation where there's a maximum infection rate of 50 percent.

    "We are a country of nine million citizens. So in the worst-case scenario, we are talking about 4.5 million Israelis who will become ill with the coronavirus. Multiply 4.5 million by 0.3 percent and you get 13,500 Israelis who are liable to die from the disease. By comparison, 700 to 2,500 Israelis die every year of complications from other respiratory ailments."

    But German Chancellor Angela Merkel talked about a rate of infection of 70 percent in Germany.

    "And Netanyahu talked about a mortality rate of between 2 percent and 4 percent. And do you know what's most absurd? That in the final analysis [U.S. President Donald] Trump was right . Not that the coronavirus is just plain flu – it absolutely isn't – but as he put it: 'This is just my hunch – way under 1 percent' [will die].'

    "We must be cautious, of course, but at the moment a high probability is emerging that the risks are far lower than what the World Health Organization presented. Under two assumptions – that the health system doesn't collapse and that life continues as usual – we are not likely to see more than 13,500 victims of the coronavirus in Israel." (About 45,000 people die in Israel in a normal year, which would make for a rise of approximately one-third.)

    But, social distancing should lead to fewer cases of infection and death, no?

    "No, because we won't be able to isolate ourselves completely or forever. At some stage, we will have to resume a regular routine, and then the R0 will stabilize at 2 again. Effectively, we are delaying the inevitable. I have no criticism of the decisions made until now. On the contrary: With such a large area of uncertainty, Israel's decision makers are considering not only a reasonable scenario but also a margin of safety.

    "In my opinion, the Health Ministry deserves tremendous credit for being ahead of the world by having instituted so few measures. In the same breath, the public needs to understand that these measures of social distancing mean that we will find ourselves with corona for a longer period, even to 2023."

    A quarantine ward being set up at Sheba Medical Center in Ramat Gan. Tomer Appelbaum

    That long?

    "Take the swine flu, from 2009. Reliable models show clearly that it was contained in Israel because its appearance coincided with the Jewish holidays in the fall [when people weren't out much in public]. From the virus' point of view, the timing wasn't good for it in Israel. By contrast, in the United States there was significant infection in 2009-2010. But in the end, it balances out. So we saw swine flu in Israel both in 2009-10 and in 2010-11, whereas in the United States it just came and went. The American population as a whole was exposed to the virus at high rates, so those who fell ill and recovered served as a 'human shield' for those who did not get sick."

    So what you're saying is to tear the bandage off in one fell swoop, and explose everyone at once, the way they tried to do in Britain.

    "We need to make decisions based on the most precise models possible. What should be done? Of course, we must significantly increase testing, using the rapid PCR test, and that is what is actually being done. In parallel, serologic tests should be conducted. These differ from regular tests in that they examines an individual's immunological reaction to exposure. That's the only way we will be able to get an accurate picture of the distribution of the virus in Israel, and thereby also of the mortality rates."

    What will that test be able to tell us?

    "It will solve the riddle of the young people: It's still not clear whether young people are infected by the coronavirus but don't develop symptoms, or are simply immune and thus don't become infected. This is different from most respiratory ailments. With those illnesses, like RSV or flu, this is a key population: The 5-to-19 age group is not at risk but they are responsible for infecting others."

    Because children don't wash their hands, and they drool on themselves?

    "It's not only a function of hygiene, it's mainly a function of contact between people. Picture the average old person. How many different people does he encounter in a day? And what is the nature of those encounters? The older we get, the less we caress and kiss others. Also, children constitute the only age group that comes into contact with all other age groups – not just theirs. That's why it is the key population in spreading respiratory diseases."

    .... ... ...

    Oded Carmeli

    Haaretz Contributor

    [Mar 24, 2020] On Coronavirus, Reason To Hope by Rod Dreher

    Notable quotes:
    "... A drug like chloroquine doesn't have to be extremely effective in order to have a huge benefit on our ICU density. A small effect could have a big impact. And if chloroquine turns out not to work, there are other promising drugs such as Remdesivir, though chloroquine has the advantage of being cheap and easy to produce. ..."
    Mar 23, 2020 | www.theamericanconservative.com
    Reader Ryan Booth writes:

    Rod, I was one of those screaming at our public officials to shut stuff down. I was extremely frustrated by President Trump's brushing off of our problem for a long time. I asked my Facebook friends if anyone wanted to help with a recall petition of Governor Edwards, after he took very mild steps against COVID-19 instead of the necessary firmer ones. I bristled with a mixture of horror and astonishment as New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell allowed bars to pack people in last weekend to celebrate St. Patrick's Day. I argued with friends on Facebook who insisted to me that "this is just a cold" and told me that I was irrational and needlessly spreading fear and panic.

    So I have consistently supported strong steps to contain this virus, but I have now become very optimistic that the tide is about to turn, and I want to share why.

    Testing is about to expand exponentially.

    We've been steadily growing our testing ability since the outbreak began. America tested 44,176 people today, and every day sees a big increase. Yesterday, we tested 34,654 and it was 27,372 the day before that. A week ago, it was 4,124.

    But these increases are small compared to what's in the pipeline. This week we saw FDA approval of new testing systems from Roche and from Abbott labs that run tests ten times faster than current methods. To give you an idea of what this means, Roche brags that their Cobas 8800 machine can process over 3000 tests per day. Until today, Louisiana hadn't had a total of 3000 people tested. Roche is now making and shipping 400,000 test kits per week in the US, while Abbott is making a million of their test kits each week. Those systems will be coming online this coming week.

    Today, we got even more good news, with Cepheid getting FDA approval for their new test, which will detect the virus in 45 minutes and can be used in over 5000 Cepheid machines already in US hospitals. This will allow hospitals to test all their staff and every incoming patient on a consistent basis, so that we can keep our doctors and nurses safe and our hospitals don't spread the disease. Those testing kits are getting shipped out this coming week.

    And there are more companies in the process of getting approval. In two weeks, we should be able to test 150,000 – 200,000 Americans daily, and that means that we don't all need to stay home anymore.

    Let me explain how this works.

    Suppose that Boudreaux, who works for the state of Louisiana, wakes up and has a fever. Right now, it's not easy for him to get tested – and if he could get tested, he wouldn't get his results for days. Let's say that Boudreaux is a good citizen and stays home at this point. That's great, except that Boudreaux went to work yesterday and exposed his coworker Pierre, and he also got his hair cut and exposed his barber, T-Boy. His wife Marie doesn't isolate from him, because she thinks that Boudreaux is just lazy and doesn't want to work, so she is also exposed. Unless Boudreaux gets sick enough that he needs to go to the hospital, he's not going to be tested, and Pierre, T-Boy, and Marie might all get the virus and – and this is key – then spread it themselves.

    That's been our situation, and the only solution that we've had was to keep Boudreaux at home in the first place. That's why the state is keeping non-essential workers at home. That's why many places are forcing barbershops to close. So, now, our governmental restrictions keep T-Boy and Pierre from getting infected, though Marie is still at risk.

    Now, imagine our original situation with easy, high-speed testing. Boudreaux wakes up with a fever, he goes to the drive-thru testing site and is notified about four hours later that he is positive. Now, everyone in his family and workplace immediately gets tested, as does T-Boy – and the virus does not spread beyond them.

    The ability to test everyone who needs to be tested is how South Korea and Singapore have been able to control their outbreaks without significant societal restrictions. Their schools, restaurants, etc. are all open. And their economies are not wrecked. Again, we'll be at that point in less than two weeks.

    Evidence strongly suggests that COVID-19 is seasonal.

    A recent Chinese study compared transmission rates for all 100 Chinese cities outside of Wuhan that had at least 40 cases before their national lockdown, to see if the virus spread more slowly in warmer, more humid parts of China. Their conclusion:

    "High temperature and high relative humidity significantly reduce the transmission of COVID-19, respectively, even after controlling for population density and GDP per capita of cities This result is consistent with the fact that the high temperature and high humidity significantly reduce the transmission of influenza. It indicates that the arrival of summer and rainy season in the northern hemisphere can effectively reduce the transmission of the COVID-19."

    That study, as an example, predicted a R value of 1.3 in Tokyo for the Olympics -- with zero intervention! (For those of you who don't know what that means, it means that instead of spreading the disease to about 2.6 people, which is what happens now, the average person would only infect half as many people.) If this study were correct, it would mean that, with some control measures, it would be easy to keep COVID-19 from spreading during the Olympics.

    Besides this study, we have the basic observation that the world's serious outbreaks have occurred in cold, dry weather. Jakarta and Milan both had nonstop flights to Wuhan during Wuhan's outbreak, but Italy has suffered a horrific crisis and Indonesia has not. Scientists believe that this is because COVID-19 is mainly transmitted by coughing , and the microdroplets emitted when someone coughs travel about twice as far in cold, dry air. Additionally, the water vapor present in humid air interacts with those microdroplets to stop them.

    If COVID-19 is indeed a seasonal disease, then we should be able to almost eliminate it this summer, to the point that there will be zero restrictions on ordinary life. Sports leagues can fill stadiums with fans and political conventions can meet, and we won't have to worry that we're fanning a new outbreak.

    Improved treatment will improve COVID-19 patient outcomes.

    If you have watched President Trump on TV or follow him on twitter, then you know that he is hopeful about the promise of chloroquine (and its close relative hydroxychloroquine).

    President Trump has perhaps overpromised what chloroquine can do, as the evidence of its benefit is still rather thin. But, if it has any benefit at all, it's a game-changer in terms of our ICUs. If chloroquine works, it works by lowering the amount of virus in the body. When you combine this with earlier testing, there's a tremendous advantage. The people who end up in the ICU don't get there until they've been sick for a week or so, as the virus grows in their body and then inflames the alveoli in the lungs, leading to shortness of breath. If chloroquine works, an at-risk patient would be given it right after testing positive, and hopefully, the viral load in their body never gets high enough for the patient to develop severe shortness of breath, and he stays out of the ICU.

    A drug like chloroquine doesn't have to be extremely effective in order to have a huge benefit on our ICU density. A small effect could have a big impact. And if chloroquine turns out not to work, there are other promising drugs such as Remdesivir, though chloroquine has the advantage of being cheap and easy to produce.

    Is the situation going to get worse in the US? Yes. Is the end in sight? I believe that it is. I write this to encourage each of you to hold on. If we can stay and home, enduring the claustrophobia, the family bickering, and the often severe economic consequences, we can beat this virus.

    I miss my church. A streamed service tomorrow is not a true substitute for the togetherness in Christ that I need more than ever at this time. And my business is suffering. I think that I can make it another month, but I don't know about longer than that. I expect that our nation's psychiatrists and therapists are swamped right now, as stress and depression skyrocket.

    But there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

    [Mar 24, 2020] The mainstream media is pushing the fear full stop

    Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    gepay , Mar 23 2020 23:28 utc | 107

    I think b has not been very good with this corona virus reporting. He thinks he was wrong on his initial reporting and changed as new facts emerged. however he basically repeats the mainstream line. I certainly am no expert, But then again it seems thee is a wide divergence of views from the "experts" but there is a mainstream conclusion which b agrees with. And the mainstream media is pushing the fear full stop.

    I still think this is not a specially dangerous virus. almost entirely it is old people dying. almost entirely most of them have pre-existing conditions. My initial take was people who would die fairly soon or might die if they got a bad flu are dying but sooner. I know my wife went to the hospital and acquired a very bad pneumonia. She was on a respirator for over a week and afterwards was diagnosed with COPD. How many of these deaths are people who are sick with corona virus and go to the hospital and get a hospital acquired infection but are counted as dying from COV-18? Virologist have been heavily researching corona viruses since the SARS and MERS outbreaks that didn't kill very many people
    I do agree that this virus seems exceptionally communicable. That nature article b cited seemed as if it was written to dismiss the idea that the virus was made in some biolab. I have read an article debunking this Nature article - the writer was trying to make a case that it came from a Chinese lab He agreed it wasn't manufactured by gene editing but was created by passing a corona virus through ferrets who do have the same ACE receptor that humans have and COV-19 uses to infect cells.

    Engineered bat virus stirs debate over risky research ...

    the announcement by Ralph Baric and co-workers at the University of North Carolina that they had created a chimeric SARS-like virus, which expresses the spike (attachment protein) of a bat coronavirus in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone (4). As in the cases of the genetically modified H5N1 avian influenza viruses, the newly generated SARS-like virus is potentially an extremely dangerous, possibly pandemic pathogen... That was 5 years ago.

    https://www.nature.com/news/engineered-bat-virus-stirs-debate-over-risky-research That was 2015.

    I agree with the uselessness of bioweapons as a military operation. The economic blowback we are now seeing is proof

    But But what if this global crisis is exactly what those who want to totally control us would want to happen. It is precipitating the roll out of medical martial law.

    There are laws on the books that give extraordinary powers in the event of a global epidemic or even a pandemic.

    Not to mention in the US the Continuity of Government provisions strengthened massively after 9/11. Every year the state of emergency triggered by 9/11 has been renewed. Mandatory vaccinations for everyone. Quarantine powers granted The initiation of martial law. Now you don't have to be a terrorist but just said to be infected and away you go.

    I don't think COV-19 is the one to justify the full implementation but it is another giant step for setting up the population for the full implementation.

    [Mar 24, 2020] 2154 of the 3711 people on board the Diamond Princess were over 60 years of age; the crew numbered 1045, and these would tend to be younger and healthier so even if some were infected they should have recovered

    Mar 24, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Commentator Mike , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 4:44 pm GMT

    @utu utu,

    To distract you back to that Petri dish the Diamond Princess .

    2154 of the 3711 people on board the Diamond Princess were over 60 years of age; the crew numbered 1045, and these would tend to be younger and healthier so even if some were infected they should have recovered. What I find hard to believe is that all those who died, died of Covid-19 and not of any other ailments, which considering the age and probably ill health of many of these passengers seems rather odd -- not even due to complications arising from the seasonal flu. You can find the detailed age breakdown at:

    https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.05.20031773v2.full.pdf

    It would be useful to know what was the prevalence of the seasonal flu among these passengers, but were they tested for this at all? So they all got the coronavirus and nobody got the flu, or so it seems? For the sake of completeness of these studies, one would expect that they should also be testing for seasonal flu in parallel. If you come across any data for these flu tests for those on board the Diamond Princess , or elsewhere, post it. Obviously if a passenger tested positive for both the seasonal flu and Covid-19, and then died, they'd have a problem to decide which of these was the cause of death. Since we know that the seasonal flu kills many of these elderly and sick, shouldn't the experts have also investigated the incidence, prevalence, and mortality due to seasonal flu among the passengers? And likewise in the general population.

    Philip Owen , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 5:43 pm GMT
    @Ron Unz Wrong!

    We know from the Diamond Princess and now the Costa Luminosa that SARS-CoV-2 is not extremely contagious. 17% of the people on the DP were infected, half without symptoms (perhaps even false positives-the jury is out). 52 from 3711 (1.4 %) became critically ill or died. On the CL 74 (known to be an overcount, in a shared cabin both were counted as critical) from 1471 (5% or less) became critically ill or died according to current information. So, in cases of 100% population exposure, or as close as it will be in this world we see 1 to 5% critically ill (assuming a consistent definition of critically ill). They could easily be lost in the everyday winter flu statistics in the US. The deaths from vaping are a key clue.

    [Mar 24, 2020] China on Jan 22 had 571 case and on Feb 1 14,308 cases while the US on March 8 had 541 cases and it reached 13,789 cases on March 19. So US is about 45 days behind China

    Mar 24, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Philip Owen , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 5:43 pm GMT

    @Ron Unz Wrong!

    We know from the Diamond Princess and now the Costa Luminosa that SARS-CoV-2 is not extremely contagious.

    17% of the people on the DP were infected, half without symptoms (perhaps even false positives -- the jury is out). 52 from 3711 (1.4 %) became critically ill or died.

    On the CL 74 (known to be an overcount, in a shared cabin both were counted as critical) from 1471 (5% or less) became critically ill or died according to current information.

    So, in cases of 100% population exposure, or as close as it will be in this world we see 1 to 5% critically ill (assuming a consistent definition of critically ill).

    They could easily be lost in the everyday winter flu statistics in the US. The deaths from vaping are a key clue.

    utu , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:08 pm GMT
    @Philip Owen "not extremely contagious" -- You are making a wrong conclusion. Passengers on Diamond Princess were isolated in their cabins. Passengers who tested positive were taken out of the ship to military hospital in Japan. Diamond Princess was not a peri dish! The epidemic was arrested there and stopped.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/trapped-on-virus-ravaged-cruise-ship-shocked-passengers-struggle-to-keep-spirits-up/2020/02/05/6fbae50c-47d3-11ea-91ab-ce439aa5c7c1_story.html

    " passengers who tested positive [ ] have been transferred to hospitals "

    "For those left on board, there is nothing to do but sit in their cabins, wait for meals to be delivered, watch television or choose from a limited selection of movies on demand. Those lucky enough to have a balcony can at least sit in the sun, look at the ocean and talk to their neighbors."

    [Mar 24, 2020] Whenever these people decide on a narrative, they are loath to back down once they are proven wrong. They don't want to lose face.

    Mar 24, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Digital Samizdat , says: Show Comment March 22, 2020 at 1:27 pm GMT

    @prime noticer What if–as seems to be happening in Italy–the journalists simply pretend that bodies are piling up, perhaps by attributing other deaths to Corona?

    Beware: whenever these people decide on a narrative, they are loath to back down once they are proven wrong. They don't want to lose face.

    https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/19/iss-report-99-of-covid19-deaths-already-ill/

    #CoronaHoax

    [Mar 24, 2020] The numbers for Italy have come down just a little bit more. Restrictions on the other hand have got even tighter, now only people who do essential work are allowed out of their homes.

    Mar 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    dan of steele , Mar 23 2020 18:31 utc | 11

    There is a bit more encouraging news tonight. the numbers for Italy have come down just a little bit more. Restrictions on the other hand have got even tighter, now only people who do essential work are allowed out of their homes.

    As I mentioned yesterday in a post that got swallowed by the ether, Italy is going through some hard times financially.

    Some self inflicted by governments spending more than the took in to stay in power and some because the banks refused to take a haircut.

    Many small businesses are just barely survive and a couple of months without income is going to really hurt.

    [Mar 24, 2020] The virus itself is exaggerated, it is the social and political impacts of it that are worrisome.

    Mar 24, 2020 | www.unz.com

    anon [837] Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:02 pm GMT

    @Trinity The virus itself is exaggerated, it is the social and political impacts of it that are worrisome.
    John Chuckman , says: Website Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:04 pm GMT
    Something to think about

    Here is an interesting item, an interview with a world-class virologist about the virus:

    Quite different the what we see in the papers day after day:

    https://www.anti-empire.com/german-virologist-of-international-renown-warns-government-lockdowns-are-a-horrible-mistake-will-make-crisis-worse/

    [Mar 24, 2020] Joe Rogan Experience #1439 - Michael Osterholm

    Highly recommended!
    Michael Osterholm - Wikipedia (born March 10, 1953) is an American infectious disease epidemiologist, regents professor, and director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.
    Scientific establishment want money, want importance, wants political influence. That create difficult dilemma and force some people play the role of fear mongers.
    Mar 24, 2020 | www.youtube.com

    parcos79 , 13 hours ago

    12 million views...holy cow

    MKingston , 1 week ago

    BUMP 00:10 Intro 0:40 How bad is Coronavirus 4:00 Is the virus an "old persons" disease 5:18 Incubation period 7:50 What can be done to prevent infection 13:45 Drug shortages 15:20 Sauna use effect on infections 18:00 Was Coronavirus man-made 22:00 American Wild Deer diseases and Prions 32:00 Is Corona seasonal 35:00 Corona could be 10 times worse than the flu 35:25 Corona will stay around for months 36:10 Coronavirus vs Spanish flu 38:30 How can we prepare our immune system 43:20 Do hand sanitizers and masks work 50:00 We stockpile weapons more than medical goods 54:30 Will people panic if they are told the truth 56:00 Vaccines 1:02:00 Why a virus would originate from China 1:11:30 What to do if you get the flu 1:15:45 Lime disease and ticks 1:23:00 Effects of fire suppression on ecosystem 1:30:00 Vaccine for Coronavirus

    whisperingsage , 4 days ago (edited)

    Sick nurses working, I have experienced that in every nursing home I have worked in in the US. In California and NV. Luckily, I found the trick, If I have a headache that won't be resolved with hydration, I figure it's a flu, I take 4 grams of C and 20,000 IU of D, and usually that takes care of it, no more symptoms. In the case that it persists, I keep taking 4 grams of C ever few hours and high dose D until the symptoms subside. Usually doesn't take too long, and ( a few hours) symptoms don't get bad.

    Joan Anundson-Ahr , 1 day ago

    Beware of any expert that promotes fearfulness and helplessness and tells us to just wait for a "miracle" vaccine. Why didn't he tell us the truth about the success of vitamin C therapy? Why didn't he tell us that some common medications like ibuprofen and heart medications can impede healing of the virus.

    KW0311 USMC , 1 week ago

    Joe doesnt like hearing his sauna and probiotics arent the cure for everything.

    MiZzShiN3 , 7 hours ago (edited)

    15:25 - 18:04 sauna myth

    Aventura , 2 days ago (edited)

    div> It´s funny and very predictable how programmed into fear people have become when it´s never the virus that kills you, but a weak immune system´s panick reaction. If you believe the MSM is not aligned with certain agendas, the WHO is not inherently corrupt, the pharmaceutical vaccine pushing industries have your best interests at heart and doctors really know what they are talking about when they always look at the parts as seperated and never the whole living system, then you will be shocked to learn the truth. https://www.youtube.com/user/drvashiva/videos I really look forward to a time, probably thanks to this crisis it will be in the not so distant future, where people will begin to wake up, see through the BS we are being bombarded with from the parasitical class of "rulers" or "elites". Then a paradigm shift in so many ways will begin to take place... Greetings from a tireless truth seeker!

    Gina Jonson , 1 day ago div c

    lass="comment-renderer-text-content expanded"> the difference between COVID 19 and the spanish flu and the fear rampant about this comparison is that our health care system is a little more advanced than what was available back in 1919 AND we are also so much more informed regarding hygiene practices.........not discounting the seriousness of this unprecendented occurrence.........but still great to focus on the "little" advantages we can monopolise on. in order to tackle this global crisis head on and rationally

    WJK , 5 days ago (edited) div

    > @PowerfulJRE - Joe PLEASE have Michael Osterholm back on asap and please ask Michael the following questions...

    1) Are highly infectious airborne cold viruses killed by ozone from ozone/ion generators(?) and

    2) Why do medical facilities and schools no longer install or utilize UV disinfection lighting like they use to utilize/install in entranceways, hallways, and rooms of hospitals and school classrooms like they use to do 50-75 years ago(?)

    Steve Ward , 5 days ago

    43:12 real good info about hand sanitizer and face masks

    J_M_W_77 , 5 days ago

    N95 masks....remember kids its a one way valve on the front of those things....breath in, and it filters the air....breath out, valve opens and the air goes out, " unfiltered". If you're sick, these masks will not prevent you from spreading it around.

    Rodney Higgins , 2 days ago

    China's only biosafety level 4 (BSL–4) laboratory is in Wuhan. Coincidences happen.

    Tessangela Beck , 3 days ago div tabindex="0" role="article"

    > Osterholm is a catalog of infectious disease info that is beyond valuable . . he's in his 60s . . maybe the planet has others who could fill his shoes in my home state of Minnesota; of course, I hope so! He also has a good sense of humor, managing a little chuckle when Joe suggested if any president could get around the informed consent issue of testing vaccines on prisoners, such as nasty rapists, it would be Trump. I'm glad to receive all the helpful info without a steady dose of politics and conspiracy chitchat. Now I know that my prebiotic and probiotic pills are only good for temporary relief and that my natural flora and fauna in the gut will take over...

    GAiPS , 1 week ago (edited)

    51:46 "We spend about 0.001% on public health compared to our defense department and yet look how vulnerable...it's the bugs...it's not a war...it's not a missile...is bringing the world economy down right now....it's a darn virus."

    Noelf , 1 week ago

    Can you imagine if even half the US defence budget was redirected into health care and research!! We (the world) spend trillions on arms and now we are fighting an enemy that bullets can't kill!! Infuriating!! 😡😡😠😠

    Qidi Wang , 1 day ago div tabindex="0" role="article"

    > How do you draw the conclusion that such viruses would always come from China? MERS was first discovered in the middle east, the 2009 flu originated in mexico, the Spanish flu originated in Kansas. I mean like if you search China on the pandemic wikipedia page there's only SARS and several flu outbreaks.

    Also Wild life is not part of the cuisine in most of China, and it's really more of a status symbol for rich people to be able to find exotic food

    Niels Raider , 5 days ago

    In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way. Franklin D. Roosevelt

    Roedy Green , 4 days ago (edited) div tabindex="0" role=

    "article"> There is another nasty virus going around here in Victoria BC Canada that is a bit like CORVID-19.. I got it in mid-December and I am just getting over it. My friends recovered in two to three weeks. The symptoms include a cough that goes on and on leaving you breathless, extremely sore throat, runny nose, extreme weakness. Even the emergency room doctor said she had it. Have you heard of it? I think I got it travelling in a Handi-dart van with some elderly, sneezing Chinese speaking males.

    Santino Rider , 5 days ago (edited)

    51:40 Good reminder of war against missiles vs virus. Budgets... 53:00 his talk to banking/finance people. Scary. Like children, whereas Michael is more analytical, like engineers/scientists, see it all as problem-solution.

    [Mar 24, 2020] Why the neoliberal media reports death from COVID-19 in Las Vegas but not death caused by Type A flu

    Mar 24, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Carlton Meyer , says: Website Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 4:23 am GMT

    After 9-11, the Feds surveyed hospitals to determine if they were prepared to handle extreme emergencies where they couldn't handle the patient load and were forced to triage and delay treatments. They learned that most hospitals were already overwhelmed every Friday and Saturday night, and many were unable to handle the demand every night. So the photos, videos, and reports of packed emergency rooms and hospitals unable to properly handle COVID-19 cases is normal.

    News from my blog:

    Mar 22, 2020 – Coronavirus Hoax?

    I am no medical expert but can check stats. Take a look at the flu stats at the Southern Nevada Health District (aka Las Vegas metro area).
    http://media.southernnevadahealthdistrict.org/download/epi/influenza/2019-2020/Influenza-Weekly-10.pdf

    As of March 7th, the flu has killed 39 people while news reports that one died from the COVID-19 virus. The Type A flu killed 28, or 28 times more than the COVID-19 virus. Updated stats should appear this week, but the media reported a second death from COVID-19 in Las Vegas, with no mention of the others killed by Type A flu. I expect COVID-19 deaths to rise quickly, but will be surprised if they exceed the Type A flu deaths.

    [Mar 24, 2020] A 2016 Johns Hopkins study concluded that 250,000 Americans die annually from medical negligence. And that's just mortality; imagine the morbidity.

    Mar 24, 2020 | www.unz.com

    SafeNow , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 4:25 am GMT

    I posted this before but it bears posting again. A 2016 Johns Hopkins study concluded that 250,000 Americans die annually from medical negligence. And that's just mortality; imagine the morbidity.

    Long waits for short appointments. Protective, sanctimonious medical front offices. A lifetime of frustrating, humiliating, frightening fighting for access. If a presidential candidate made a promise to double the number of physicians, starting right now, he would be elected in a landslide. Sure, it would take seven years before this kicked in. But start right now. For this coming fall semester, the medical schools need only to have more seats.

    As long as I am talking about laws that nearly everyone would support .about those leaf blowers

    [Mar 23, 2020] Credible insights into the Coronavirus by Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg

    A very interesting discussion by Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg. He compare this epidemic hype with famous Andersen tale about the Naked King. He points out on the fact that test for the virus was developed in a hurry and it is unclear how many false positive it allow.
    All-in-all a very interesting, educational discussion by Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg even you do not agree with him.
    Mar 15, 2020 | www.youtube.com

    I just made the English voiceover. Original video is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_Ayu...

    Learn about Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wolfgan...

    Compare with

    Joe Rogan Experience #1439 - Michael Osterholm - YouTube

    [Mar 23, 2020] Way Past Time for Proper Perspective on Corona Virus by Larry C Johnson

    Mar 23, 2020 | turcopolier.typepad.com

    Deap , 23 March 2020 at 12:38 PM

    Two issues continue to be misrepresented which systematicly allow "corona" to take on the spectre of the Zombie Apocalypse:

    1. Social distancing keeps people out of the sneeze-cough zone for droplet contamination by air. Yet social shunning of those who continue to cough and sneeze in public in fact is what needs to be made the primary line of defense. Not the crowds of people stocking up on toilet paper but virtuously standing 6 feet apart, clueless about their own role fostering the Zombie Apocalypse imagery.

    2. Self-inoculation is the second source of infection, and way under-emphasizied while again disguised by virtuous but meaningless ritual behavior.

    All the talk is about hand washing, surface decontamination and hand sanitizers which ultimately are a fools errand since this additional new, and critical ritual behavior often fails to emphasize the absolutely important disease connection that comes from sticking your very own (presumed) dirty fingers into one's own nose, mouth and/or eyes.

    Few are 100% observant about how many surfaces they actually touch before the stick their "washed or sanitized hands" back into their own mouth, nose or eyes.

    Washing your hands remains #1 in importance, but so does WATCHING your hands.

    "Don't touch your face" misses the point too - another message fail - one must vividly make the connection between their own fingers and their own body orifices leading to the upper respiratory tract. And continue to be aware of this connection 24/7 - no exceptions.

    Organic homemake hand sanitizers are as good as the last thing you touched or the next person who cough next to your clorox-wiped surfaces.

    The media goes out of its way to instill the Zombie Apocalypse vision of this "flu" - it is everywhere, you must fear everything and nothing can protect you. If you touch it, you will die. If it is in the air, you will die. You never know who has it. You are a victim. And it is someone else's fault.

    So one can pretend to do useless and ritual activities but ignore one's own role and one's own personal responsibility for its contact and spread.

    1. Socially shun anyone who fails to protect their coughs or sneezes, until they learn new habits - how does staying 6 feet away from everyone teach the offenders new habits?

    2. Wash your hands and watch what you touch. 100% of the time.

    TSA is now with us 100% of the time after 911- regardless of the numerical threat. Proper self-hygiene needs to be with us 100% of the time too - and never should have left us.

    Bring back white gloves. Now we know why.

    JohninMK , 23 March 2020 at 12:42 PM
    Here in the UK either our management are incompetent of they know something we don't is my take.

    Apart from summary figures broken down by Health district for 'got it' or 'dead from it' there is nothing. Testing apart from in hospitals is unknown unless you are famous so no-one has any idea what the viruses progress is in the community. What is happening at individual hospitals is probably a state secret now.

    Even though, between themselves, they knew it was coming at the latest in mid January, they did nothing. No extra orders for masks, ventilators etc.

    Yet they are allowing fear and panic to rip through the community and huge economic damage.

    I haven't yet properly worked out cui bono but I have my suspicions. But they are passing some draconian laws.

    TournezVite , 23 March 2020 at 01:15 PM
    The actual mortality rate may be closer to 1% or less with most of it concentrated in the over 70s. The reasonable thing to do would have been to protect seniors while letting everyone else go about their business. Nuking the economy with lockdowns is the politicians' way of competing with each other to show they're "doing something." It's craven behavior not leadership.

    A number of notable virologists have advocated for a more level-headed approach, among them Dr. David Katz. See https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/20/opinion/coronavirus-pandemic-social-distancing.html.

    This daily updated page https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/ has compiled a lengthy list of doctors and virologists who are critical of the panic mongering.

    Nornert M Salamon , 23 March 2020 at 03:11 PM
    Thank you Larry for the sobering analysis of Corvid-19.

    I only disagree with your emphasis that the social distancing is the main cause of economic collapse.

    Methinks that the everything bubble in coordination of unrepayable debt fiasco has arrived, and the ELITES/media are distracting from refinancing the Wall Street gamblers, Share-buyback artists, Private equity leveraged asset strippers and the offshore artist looser.

    We are replaying the 2008 modus operandi get the elites saved financially and let the poor people try to survive on their own as they assume all the obligation of the
    elite rescue

    English Outsider , 23 March 2020 at 03:57 PM
    Larry Johnson - I'm afraid I'm rather more of JJ Jackson's view as to the potential seriousness of this disease.

    But the economic effects are already pretty devastating. 10% of world trade is tourism and related. Entertainment is a big industry. Both hard hit and other sectors too. Pensioners spend a fair bit and many are no longer doing so.

    So whether we panic or not that's the reality. A reality superimposed on a weak and vulnerable economy. Also on a financial system already on life support.

    That's more the case in my country than yours, by quite a long chalk. Even so, though I believe the US is in a better position to recover, the hit's coming our way wherever we live. You can't take that amount of economic activity out and expect there to be only a few bumps in the road.

    Theoretically the best approach is yours. Business as usual, tuck the vulnerable away, take such casualties as come along among the less vulnerable. Could even be an opportunity for economic regeneration along Trump 2016 lines.

    This hasn't happened and I doubt it would have even had the strategy been agreed on and adopted early on. And there's too much disconnect between the rulers and ruled for anything constructive much to happen now, certainly in UK politics though it would be presumptuous in me to venture an opinion here about yours. This is already a big deal and should be treated as such.

    I've been following your analyses on Russiagate and they're on the money every time. I hope the pandemic isn't used as an opportunity to bury that disgraceful affair. But there'll be plenty hoping it's just that.

    [Mar 23, 2020] a New York Times opinion piece, authored by a "writer, producer and yoga teacher" who apparently contracted the virus, and had to be hospitalized noting that it did not keep her (Fiona Lowenstein) from taking a "selfie", apparently with a non-sterile, yet-somehow-permitted-in-the-hospital room cell phone?

    Mar 23, 2020 | www.unz.com

    OscarWildeLoveChild , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 1:37 pm GMT

    @Dd I don't know, but I have a lot of questions about things I have been reading, from the data, demonstrating the weakness of the virus, and non-lethality, to a New York Times opinion piece, authored by a "writer, producer and yoga teacher" who apparently contracted the virus, and had to be hospitalized noting that it did not keep her (Fiona Lowenstein) from taking a "selfie", apparently with a non-sterile, yet-somehow-permitted-in-the-hospital room cell phone? You normally have all that stuff bagged up. I dunno. Check out the article and her pic, judge for yourself.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/opinion/coronavirus-young-people.html/?2020-03-23T09%3A00%3A09%2000%3A00

    It isn't that I don't think it is possible, or true, about this or other similar stories, or that the data is fake or false .there's just so much to digest and some of it seems incredulous and/or contradictory.

    [Mar 23, 2020] deaths to infections are around 1.5% and deaths to total world population are negligible to the point of irrelevancy. Other tropical diseases kill millions annually with hardly a blink from anyone or any government. Deaths from road accidents worldwide must be in the hundreds of thousands. Why is there no shutdown or driver quarantine internationally ?

    Mar 23, 2020 | www.unz.com

    calculator , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 1:20 pm GMT

    @Digital Samizdat I agree the thing is a HOAX.

    First of all I see few people wearing masks in my city. In photos on the internet and media websites those that do seem to be staged photos. The thumbnail photo for this article supposedly shows Italy, the country allegedly hardest hit, the Roman Arena in the background but only one girl wearing a mask. Yet I hear the virus is spreading like "wildfire" and such nonsense. I read congregations of more than 50 people is prohibited but yet see supermarkets full of folks jostling each other. Even on the internet I see photos beating the virulence and destructive power of the virus, photos with 20 people and only 2 wearing masks.

    Second, every country is "locking down" although deaths to infections are around 1.5% and deaths to total world population are negligible to the point of irrelevancy. Other tropical diseases kill millions annually with hardly a blink from anyone or any government. Deaths from road accidents worldwide must be in the hundreds of thousands. Why is there no shutdown or driver quarantine internationally ? One is at greater risk of violence in modern day urban centers. We have African countries with germs scientists have not even discovered "locking down".

    Third, the "experts" seem to be clueless and clued out. One minute everyone has to self quarantine and now I see the leading WHO expert saying everything cannot be locked down. They need to identify the infected and their contacts and isolate THEM or else the virus "could jump up again". Other experts not to be outdone assert the virus could reappear in September. Then there is all the jargon like social distancing and flattening the curve.

    Fourth, all the billions now being thrown around for the "War" on the virus is like spilling honey on an ants nest. I dont want to be crass but will health units accurately test and report results. Lets say a Government has set aside $100,000 per infected citizen. Go to the hospital with a sniffle and you may well be diagnosed with the virus, the health professionals only too happy to bill the Government. Since it is you, a wife and three kids and you had a birthday party recently with 14 other relatives one is now running into the millions. There seems to be too much incentive to flog this virus and milk every penny possible from whoever is shovelling out the cash.

    Fifth, this virus seems to be killing people well up in their age whose immune systems are already weak. Germs, insects and pests and scavengers always congregate where there is filth. Poor eating habits, bad diet, lack of exercise, smoking, drinking and use of recreational and other drugs weaken the immune system and make the blood dirty leaving it open to infection by ANY germ or virus that comes along. In any case the media seems to tout statistics in a dishonest way. For example "Country X now has 30,000 infections" is spun as if the 30,000 died or "Deaths shatter records, rise by 30%" when in fact the 30% rise amounts to three people.

    I could go on for another 2000 words. Even poor Harvey, locked away in jail is now infected. Everyone is looking for an angle and flogging this virus. Everyone forgets we went through this with Swine Flu, Bird Flu, West Nile, Sars and Anthrax. Now it is COVID ! Everyone is looking for a payout. The herd instinct s strong, monkey see monkey do. States with no infections are locking down.

    Finally, there si all the finger pointing about the origin of the virus and the name squeezes out accusations of racism, bigotry and whatever. It now seems fashionable to have the virus with Mr and Mrs Rich and Famous claiming to have tested for it and so forth. Yahoo had an article today showing a well dressed white girl wearing a black mask in front of a chinese building. Looked like a photoshoot and recently there was an article from a boy telling what is was like to have the virus. He looked very healthy with a big smile. I guess he is one of those rare characters who can be flat on their backs for 2 weeks with a deadly virus and come out looking like Clark Gable.

    As to why this would NOT be a hoax. Why would the market crash and the economy be ruined ? The answer to me is that it started as a virus and people saw a way they could exploit it. Maybe they never expected the reaction in terms of shutdowns and lockups , maybe they never expected the reactions to be so out of control but ultimately the reason is MONEY.

    The public gets fooled everytime with this nonsense or some other rubbish. The traditional media and social media flog this virus ad nauseum to the point where ordinary folks panic from the sheer volume of information and opinions and "research" .Brace yourselves, 2021 or 2022 will bring another "catastrophe" and we will fall for the b/s all over again. I dont know about other commentators but I am tired of the whole thing and the cure will decimate many more than the virus itself.

    [Mar 23, 2020] It's Nature's immune system, we are the virus.

    Mar 23, 2020 | www.youtube.com

    Kurt D. , 8 hours ago

    It's Nature's immune system, we are the virus.

    [Mar 23, 2020] There is by now lots of material on the internet for the reader to understand how deaths by pre-existing illness have been attributed to Covid-19

    Mar 23, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    john , Mar 22 2020 15:30 utc | 5

    UK Government's Chief Science Advisor Reveals "Covid-19" Deaths Are Deaths As Normal; BBC Admits It Too

    There is by now lots of material on the internet for the reader to understand how deaths by pre-existing illness have been attributed to Covid-19, and this site provides a reasonably good starting place (please see the article linked to above titled, Covid-19 and pneumonic immune system overreaction).

    On the other hand, the effort to get to grips with the reason that a fake pandemic has been used by governments in the west to destroy the livelihoods of their governed is something that has not solidified into a coherent and demonstrable idea, and perhaps the only proof of the pudding will be in the eating; i.e. we will only know when it is happening to us.

    However, at that stage knowledge of Covid-19 as the phantom scapegoat will be well established.

    And just as the widespread exposure of al-Qaeda, which was the equivalent bogeyman device in the War on Terror as an Orwellian tool of those executing the reaction to (their own) terrorist provocation, proved to undermine and cause to fail a plan for domination of foreign territory by Globalist financier class interests, so too will widespread appreciation of the true nature of Covid-19 undermine and cause to fail the irregular warfare that is now being unleashed on domestic territories

    [Mar 22, 2020] Intelligence agencies and the virus

    Highly recommended!
    Mar 22, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    kiwiklown , Mar 22 2020 10:11 utc | 128

    @Jackrabbit | Mar 21 2020 22:32 utc | 50

    "These officials "failed us" in the same way that our media "fails us": they serve the interests of the EMPIRE-FIRST Deep State."

    Yuppp. Our error is to assume all 17 intelligence agencies; the presstitudes; and US "leadership" exist to serve the American people. And so, yes, they "fail" the people. But, from the point of view of the controllers of those agencies and of those "leaders", they hardly ever fail !!!

    While the people argue over virulent minutae, they are once again helping themselves to the US Treasury.... Trillions of USDs.... LOL

    kiwiklown , Mar 22 2020 10:36 utc | 132

    @Jackrabbit | Mar 21 2020 23:10 utc | 54

    "Caitlin Johnstone also sees the response being manipulated to focus hate on China...."

    Yuppp, blaming China, hating on China achieves several objectives:

    Just look at how US leadership has been hating on Russia for the last 100 years, waiting to whack them with a sneak attack if feasible.

    kiwiklown , Mar 22 2020 11:25 utc | 137
    @Jackrabbit | Mar 22 2020 2:45 utc | 79

    ".... was then told to STOP TESTING...... A medical person would not try to suppress testing. That would be a "management decision" and its the Nation Security Council that was running the show (and which had classified all discussions related to virus preparations)...."

    Thanks for reminding us of Dr Chu's story. What if the US leadership:

    [Mar 22, 2020] The death rate in Hubei province is 5% of all infected

    Mar 22, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Peter AU1 , Mar 22 2020 6:19 utc | 100

    "It is the existence of these serious cases (absurdly estimated at 15% of the cases, probably in reality 10 times less) that justifies not simply relying on group immunity. ..."

    Hubei is the best figures we have at the moment. Still 5,000 or so active cases there but everything has stabilized enough to get an idea of percentages.

    Numbers at the moment

    Recovered 59,432
    Deaths 3,144
    Active 5224

    That gives a death rate of around 5% of those infected. There will also be a good number have suffered permanent lung damage, perhaps another 5%.

    No medical care and those numbers go a lot higher.

    [Mar 21, 2020] The New Dark Age

    Notable quotes:
    "... Voltaire Network ..."
    "... the Iranian population is the world's most lung-weakest. Almost all men over the age of sixty suffer from the after-effects of the US combat gases used by the Iraqi army during the First Gulf War (1980-88), as did the Germans and the French after the First World War. Any traveller to Iran has been struck by the number of serious lung ailments. ..."
    "... The Diamond Princess is an Israeli-American ship, owned by Micky Arison, brother of Shari Arison, the richest woman in Israel. The Arisons are turning this incident into a public relations operation. The Trump administration and several other countries airlifted their nationals to be quarantined at home. The international press devoted its headlines to this story. Referring to the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1919, it asserts that the epidemic could spread throughout the world and potentially threaten the human species with extinction [ 2 ]. This apocalyptic hypothesis, not based on any facts, will nevertheless become the word of the Gospel. ..."
    "... It is not known at this time whether tycoons deliberately spread panic about Covid-19, making this vulgar epidemic seem like the "end of the world". However, one distortion after another, governments have become involved. Of course, it is no longer a question of selling advertising screens by frightening people, but of dominating populations by exploiting this fear. ..."
    "... Let us remember that never in history has the confinement of a healthy population been used to fight a disease. Above all, let us remember that this epidemic will have no significant consequences in terms of mortality. ..."
    "... The two governments panic their populations by distributing unnecessary instructions disavowed by infectious diseases doctors: they encourage people to wear gloves and masks in all circumstances and to keep at least one metre away from any other human being. ..."
    "... It is too early to say what real goal the Conte and Macron governments are pursuing. The only thing that is certain is that it is not a question of fighting Covid-19. ..."
    Mar 21, 2020 | williambowles.info

    Covid-19: propaganda and manipulation by Thierry Meyssan March 21, 2020 21 March 2020 -- Voltaire Network

    Returning to the Covid-19 epidemic and the way governments are reacting to it, Thierry Meyssan stresses that the authoritarian decisions of Italy and France have no medical justification. They contradict the observations of the best infectiologists and the instructions of the World Health Organization.

    The Chinese Prime Minister, Li Keqiang, came to lead the operations in Wuhan and restore the "celestial mandate" on January 27, 2020.

    On November 17, 2019, the first case of a person infected with Covid-19 was diagnosed in Hubei Province, China. Initially, doctors tried to communicate the seriousness of the disease, but clashed with regional authorities. It was only when the number of cases increased and the population saw the seriousness of the disease that the central government intervened.

    This epidemic is not statistically significant. It kills very few people, although those it does kill experience terrible respiratory distress.

    Since ancient times, in Chinese culture, Heaven has given a mandate to the Emperor to govern his subjects [ 1 ]. When he withdraws it, a disaster strikes the country: epidemic, earthquake, etc. Although we are in modern times, President XI felt threatened by the mismanagement of the Hubei regional government. The Council of State therefore took matters into its own hands. It forced the population of Hubei's capital, Wuhan, to remain confined to their homes. Within days, it built hospitals; sent teams to each house to take the temperature of each inhabitant; took all potentially infected people to hospitals for testing; treated those infected with chloroquine phosphate and sent others home; and treated the critically ill with recombinant interferon Alfa 2B (IFNrec) for resuscitation. This vast operation had no public health necessity, other than to prove that the Communist Party still has the heavenly mandate.

    During a press conference on Covid-19, the Iranian Deputy Minister of Health, Iraj Harirchi, appeared contaminated.

    Propagation in Iran

    The epidemic spreads from China to Iran in mid-February 2020. These two countries have been closely linked since ancient times. They share many common cultural elements. However, the Iranian population is the world's most lung-weakest. Almost all men over the age of sixty suffer from the after-effects of the US combat gases used by the Iraqi army during the First Gulf War (1980-88), as did the Germans and the French after the First World War. Any traveller to Iran has been struck by the number of serious lung ailments.

    When air pollution in Tehran increased beyond what they could bear, schools and government offices were closed and half of the families moved to the countryside with their grandparents. This has been happening several times a year for thirty-five years and seems normal.

    The government and parliament are almost exclusively composed of veterans of the Iraq-Iran war, that is, people who are extremely fragile in relation to Covid-19. So when these groups were infected, many personalities developed the disease.

    In view of the US sanctions, no Western bank covers the transport of medicines. Iran found itself unable to treat the infected and care for the sick until the UAE broke the embargo and sent two planes of medical equipment.

    People who would not suffer in the other country died from the first coughs due to the wounds in their lungs. As usual, the government closed schools. In addition, it deprogrammed several cultural and sporting events, but did not ban pilgrimages. Some areas have closed hotels to prevent the movement of sick people who can no longer find hospitals close to their homes.

    Quarantine in Japan

    On February 4, 2020, a passenger on the US cruise ship Diamond Princess was diagnosed ill from the Covid-19 and ten passengers were infected. The Japanese Minister of Health, Katsunobu Kato, then imposed a two-week quarantine on the ship in Yokohama in order to prevent the contagion from spreading to his country. In the end, out of the 3,711 people on board, the vast majority of whom are over 70 years old, there would be 7 deaths.

    The Diamond Princess is an Israeli-American ship, owned by Micky Arison, brother of Shari Arison, the richest woman in Israel. The Arisons are turning this incident into a public relations operation. The Trump administration and several other countries airlifted their nationals to be quarantined at home. The international press devoted its headlines to this story. Referring to the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1919, it asserts that the epidemic could spread throughout the world and potentially threaten the human species with extinction [ 2 ]. This apocalyptic hypothesis, not based on any facts, will nevertheless become the word of the Gospel.

    We remember that in 1898, William Hearst and Joseph Pulitzer, in order to increase the sales of their daily newspapers, published false information in order to deliberately provoke a war between the United States and the Spanish colony of Cuba. This was the beginning of "yellow journalism" (publishing anything to make money). Today it is called "fake news".

    It is not known at this time whether tycoons deliberately spread panic about Covid-19, making this vulgar epidemic seem like the "end of the world". However, one distortion after another, governments have become involved. Of course, it is no longer a question of selling advertising screens by frightening people, but of dominating populations by exploiting this fear.

    For the WHO Director, Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, China and South Korea have set an example by generalising screening tests; a way of saying that the Italian and French methods are medical nonsense.

    WHO intervention

    The World Health Organization (WHO), which monitored the entire operation, noted the spread of the disease outside China. On February 11th and 12th, it organized a global forum on research and innovation on the epidemic in Geneva. At the forum, WHO Director-General Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus called in very measured terms for global collaboration [ 3 ].

    In all of its messages, the WHO stressed : the low demographic impact of the epidemic; the futility of border closures; the ineffectiveness of wearing gloves, masks (except for health care workers) and certain "barrier measures" (for example, the distance of one metre only makes sense with infected people, but not with healthy people); the need to raise the level of hygiene, including hand washing, water disinfection and increased ventilation of confined spaces. Finally, use disposable tissues or, failing that, sneeze into your elbow.

    However, the WHO is not a medical organization, but a United Nations agency dealing with health issues. Its officials, even if they are doctors, are also and above all politicians. It cannot therefore denounce the abuses of certain states. Furthermore, since the controversy over the H1N1 epidemic, the WHO must publicly justify all its recommendations. In 2009, it was accused of having let itself be swayed by the interests of big pharmaceutical companies and of having hastily sounded the alarm in a disproportionate manner [ 4 ]. This time it used the word "pandemic" only as a last resort, on March 12th, four months later.

    At the Franco-Italian summit in Naples on February 27, the French and Italian presidents, Giuseppe Conte and Emmanuel Macron, announced that they would react together to the pandemic.

    Instrumentation in Italy and France

    Modern propaganda should not be limited to the publication of false news as the United Kingdom did to convince its people to enter the First World War, but should also be used in the same way as Germany did to convince its people to fight in the Second World War. The recipe is always the same: to exert psychological pressure to induce subjects to voluntarily practice acts that they know are useless, but which will lead them to lie [ 5 ]. For example, in 2001, it was common knowledge that those accused of hijacking planes on 9/11 were not on the passenger boarding lists. Yet, in shock, most accepted without question the inane accusations made by FBI Director Robert Muller against "19 hijackers". Or, as is well known, President Hussein's Iraq had only old Soviet Scud launchers with a range of up to 700 kilometers, but many Americans caulked the windows and doors of their homes to protect themselves from the deadly gases with which the evil dictator was going to attack America. This time, in the case of the Covid-19, it is the voluntary confinement in the home that forces the person who accepts it to convince himself of the veracity of the threat.

    Let us remember that never in history has the confinement of a healthy population been used to fight a disease. Above all, let us remember that this epidemic will have no significant consequences in terms of mortality.

    In Italy, the first step was to isolate the contaminated regions according to the principle of quarantine, and then to isolate all citizens from each other, which follows a different logic.

    According to the President of the Italian Council, Giuseppe Conte, and the French President, Emmanuel Macron, the aim of confining the entire population at home is not to overcome the epidemic, but to spread it out over time so that the sick do not arrive at the same time in hospitals and saturate them. In other words, it is not a medical measure, but an exclusively administrative one. It will not reduce the number of infected people, but will postpone it in time.

    In order to convince the Italians and the French of the merits of their decision, Presidents Conte and Macron first enlisted the support of committees of scientific experts. While these committees had no objection to people staying at home, they had no objection to people going about their business. Then Chairs Conte and Macron made it mandatory to have an official form to go for a walk. This document on the letterheads of the respective ministries of the interior is drawn up on honour and is not subject to any checks or sanctions.

    The two governments panic their populations by distributing unnecessary instructions disavowed by infectious diseases doctors: they encourage people to wear gloves and masks in all circumstances and to keep at least one metre away from any other human being.

    https://www.youtube.com/embed/8L6ehRif-v8?version=3&rel=1&fs=1&autohide=2&showsearch=0&showinfo=1&iv_load_policy=1&wmode=transparent

    The French "reference daily" (sic) Le Monde, Facebook France and the French Ministry of Health undertook to censor a video of Professor Didier Raoult, one of the world's most renowned infectiologists, because by announcing the existence of a proven drug in China against Covid-19, he highlighted the lack of a medical basis for the measures taken by President Macron [ 6 ].

    https://www.youtube.com/embed/n4J8kydOvbc?version=3&rel=1&fs=1&autohide=2&showsearch=0&showinfo=1&iv_load_policy=1&wmode=transparent

    It is too early to say what real goal the Conte and Macron governments are pursuing. The only thing that is certain is that it is not a question of fighting Covid-19.

    Thierry Meyssan

    Translation

    Pete Kimberley

    [ 1 ] The Mandate of Heaven and The Great Ming Code, Jiang Yonglin, University of Washington Press (2011).

    [ 2 ] Human Extinction and the Pandemic Imaginary, Christos Lynteris, Routledge (2020).

    [ 3 ] " Nouveau coronavirus : solidarité, collaboration et mesures d'urgence au niveau mondial s'imposent ", Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, Organisation mondiale de la Santé, 11 février 2020.

    [ 4 ] Pandemics, Science and Policy. H1N1 and the World Health Organization, Sudeepa Abeysinghe, Plagrave Macmillan (2015).

    [ 5 ] " The techniques of modern military propaganda ", by Thierry Meyssan, Translation Pete Kimberley, Voltaire Network, 18 May 2016.

    [ 6 ] " "La chloroquine guérit le Covid-19" : Didier Raoult, l'infectiologue qui aurait le remède au coronavirus ", Étienne Campion, Marianne, 19 mars 2020.

    [Mar 21, 2020] There is NO REASON to destroy your country because of this. NONE. Something else is in play.

    Mar 21, 2020 | thesaker.is

    Akhmat on March 19, 2020 , · at 9:41 pm EST/EDT

    Covid-19! H1N1! Names of guns on Call of Duty! Scary! I call it a Cold. The Flu killed many more than this will 2 years ago. I propose to change the name of the Flu to "Putin Plague". That will do it.

    Russia has 1 death, few cases, a massive border with China, huge numbers of Chinese tourists, officials, students, etc. India has 4 deaths, a border with China, and many Chinese. How are any of you buying that?

    If this was the end of the world would Putin be almost disinterested in his demeanor? Would Kadyrov laugh it off on national tv? Are the Russians that stupid or do they know something?

    If this was big, Kadyrov would be in full-action. Special Corona uniform, big guns, lots of hitting the pads, plenty of screams of Akhmat Sila! Instead, he is complaining that he is bored because there are no fights to watch.

    Let me tell you something that is not being discussed. Millions, yes millions, died from the Flu a few seasons back. It was horrible. Hospitals could not handle it. Yet, the media was dead silent. Zero concerns. No mention. It was just a bad Flu season and life went on for you. Maybe you buried Grandma. Maybe you were dog sick (I was and I had a Flu shot!). What you did not have was 24/7 hysteria. Hysteria is NEVER good. NEVER.

    At the beginning of this year, I suddenly started getting these horrible videos from China of healthy-looking men falling face down on the street. What the ? Healthy men walking down the street and then – BAM! Straight down. They went viral. Freaked the Western world out. Millions and millions of views. We now know that IS NOT the virus. Whoever created those videos knows more than we do.

    –Steps Russia Seems To Be Taking–

    If a patient dies make sure to list the cause of death as whatever they were suffering from (healthy people RARELY die from this) prior to the illness.

    Use regional heads (Ramzan!) to dampen any hysteria. Chechens have been told that they will die eventually why worry about a cold. Go drink some tea. Don't be a wimp. This kind of talk is dangerous to soft Europeans/Americans, but is part of the Caucasian spirit.

    Get the FSB to run EVERYTHING. Rumor is it that the guy in charge of tests has been in charge of security for Putin. I promise you that the FSB is in total control of all results. If the numbers look bad – Lie. Slowly add a death here and there. Make sure that it appears that you did not let anyone die from this because of lack of equipment. This is not a health issue. This is an actual war. Yes, war. You do what you can medically, you just don't create mass hysteria. Make sense? Many countries are doing this and will be better off for this. More lives will be saved because healthy people will not be taking up space that belongs to the very sick. Hysteria is the last thing you want.

    *NOTE* Have you noticed how Russians are furious with Italy while the West cries for them? The West is furious with China while Russia is happy for them. Topsy turvy world.

    There is NO REASON to destroy your country because of this. NONE. Something else is in play. I can promise you that millions of Americans have it or have had it. The CDC has said this! There were no testing kits. If there are no testing kits you cannot officially die from a Call of Duty weapon.

    [Mar 20, 2020] Coronavirus reduced mortality in GB

    Mar 20, 2020 | off-guardian.org

    Steve Hayes ,

    According to the Office of National Statistics, in the week ending the 6th of March 10 895 deaths were registered in England and Wales. The average number of deaths registered for the corresponding week over the previous five years was 11 498. So the coronavirus appears to be reducing mortality. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    [Mar 20, 2020] This all reminds me of the movie 'Citizen Kane'

    Mar 20, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    joetv , Mar 20 2020 1:37 utc | 257

    Whether this virus jumped species or was made in a bath tub, I can't say. What I can do is count. in 2019 there were 30,000 deaths in the USA attributed to the Flu. Now, here we are in 2020 with the first quarter of the year nearing coming on, and there are less than 75 deaths traced to ncov19. So, in my estimation maybe we may record 2,000 dead this year.

    Is it rational that we're watching our hard earned 401k's tank, self quarantining, suffering food shortages, told to distance, avoid our neighbors, and panic over what is little more than the common cold?

    Why must the President address the nation every morning with the Dow Jones numbers flashing in sync? Why are people in hazmat suits poking around our cities spreading fear, and asking inane questions such as: do you have a cough, have you recently been to Iran, China, N. Korea or Iran? I was screened at my local VA hospital on the March 13th, and those were the questions asked of me. After saying negative a purple wrist ban was put on me and I was allowed access.

    This all reminds me of the movie 'Citizen Kane'. For those old enough to remember it Orson Welles played the owner of a major newspaper. One day his headline read "WAR DECLARED IN (some fictitious country)" Consequently, the President of said fictitious country called the editor by phone, and complained that the paper had it wrong, and there wasn't any war going on in his country, and how could he. However, Orson responded quite cavalierly with something on the order of; "Why of course there is a war, because I said there is"
    This theatre has gone far enough.

    [Mar 20, 2020] Looking back on past pandemcs

    Mar 20, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Pft , Mar 20 2020 5:07 utc | 286

    Looking back

    1918 Spanish Flu. WWI ongoing. 675 , 000 deaths in US (300K excess deaths based on mortality stats published at the time) , 15 million estimated worldwide deaths in 7 months. No significant impact on GDP due to war

    1950-1952 Polio peak panic-Korean War. No significant economic impact. 16,000 paralysis cases, 3000 deaths annually (mostly children)

    1957 -58 influenza pandemic- over 100 K deaths in half the population. Significant recession in 1958 following Eisenhower's cutting DOD spending. Cold War ramped up to boost spending. Business as usual for most people during the pandemic

    1968 influenza pandemic, over 100k dead, peak Vietnam War, no significant economic impact

    1976 Swine Flu- minimal deaths (dozens) Public health induced hype led to 45 million rushed to market vaccines. 450 people got Guillain-Barré syndrome from vaccines causing paralysis . No serious economic impact, business as usual except for vaccination

    2003 SARS outbreak. Panic in China/Asia, 800 deaths. Significant economic disruption to Greater China region due to travel bans and quarantine measures. Iraq war began at same time. No economic impact in US

    2009 H1N1 Pandemic. 12,000 estimated deaths in US. CDC recommended against testing in July. Not much panic. Country already in recession due to subprime crash. Obamacare passed in December. Arab spring followed. US government bought 229 million doses of vaccine mostly unused. Former CDC director hired by Merck probably got a nice bonus. Total cost 4 billion. About 2 billion went for vaccines,

    2019- virus starts to spread in China starting from November 17. A month after Event 201 . This was attended by Dr Gao of China CDC. China covers up initially then began limited testing reporting few cases until January 18 when they expanded testing and cases spiked. . Did not quarantine Wuhan until Jan 23 allowing millions to leave city for other locations due to up upcoming Lunar New Year Holidays when everything shuts down fir 1-2 weeks anyways. Significant economic disruption and depression follow as West inflates panic among citizens with the help of MSM and altmedia to gain support for adopting Chinas draconian measures and curtailment of freedoms, with censorship sure to follow. Can another war to lift the West out of depression be far behind, or will that war be fought against the bottom 90% after lightbulbs go off and they realize they got played.

    Experimental DNA changing vaccines being rushed to market. Total cost for everything will be tens of trillions. Thats a lot of pork. Helicopter money coming soon. Freedom and Democracy will be a pipe dream. That was Trumps role all along, to put the finishing touches on a 120 year program to destroy Democracy and replace it with an Elitist Dictatorship ruled by Philosopher Kings and Corporate Technocrats and enforced by the Military.

    [Mar 20, 2020] Somebody please inform Donald J. Trump that the virus probably originated ourside of China

    Mar 20, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Circe , Mar 20 2020 0:34 utc | 242

    Please inform Donald J. Trump that he needs to stop spreading disinformation on the Coronavirus.

    Trump calls Coronavirus, the China virus and Chinese virus and blamed China for spreading it to the U.S.

    Tom Cotton, the dumb as a rock Senator from Arkansas wants to go to war with China over the Coronavirus.

    warmonger-tom-cotton-openly-threatens-china-claims-beijing-inflicted-coronavirus

    You can't make this stuff up.

    [Mar 20, 2020] Pompeo myth that USA and the West were unprepared because China withheld information about the virus.

    Mar 20, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    occupatio , Mar 19 2020 20:16 utc | 161

    @b Another myth to add to your collection ...

    ... that USA and the West were unprepared because China withheld information about the virus.

    Posted by: Jackrabbit | Mar 19 2020 18:20 utc | 106

    The "Report of the WHO-China Joint Mission on COVID-19" states that China transparently reported the identification of virus to the WHO and the international community on January 3rd, and a WHO investigative team was invited to Wuhan a week after that.

    From January 3rd, 2020, information on COVID-19 cases has been reported to WHO daily.

    On January 7th, full genome sequences of the new virus were shared with WHO and the international community immediately after the pathogen was identified.

    On January 10th, an expert group involving Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwanese technical experts and a World Health Organization team was invited to visit Wuhan.

    From page 31 of:
    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

    [Mar 20, 2020] The governments's reactions to COVID-19 can be explained by the fact that nowadays governments are mainly made up of incompetent empire-compatibles stooges of MIC. In the same way the empire gets away with bombing away poor people, those incompetents get away with evry single stupidity they commit.

    Mar 20, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    willie , Mar 19 2020 19:24 utc | 142

    To make a just evaluation of the health danger of Covid-19 it could be useful to make a computerized simulation model based on the data from an influenza virus seasonal outbreak some years ago,but with the actual medical extended reaction to it like testing on a bigger scale then normally.(I don't even know how it is ,in normal wintertime flu.

    I guess the numbers tested equal those who seek medical help,or maybe they test all citizens taking part in the free government proposed vaccination,that pretty soon follows the outbreak(how do they find the vaccin so quickly?)) improvising hospitals and other medical stuff.And also take in account the appreciation of the illness by the general public.The high number of medical staff that went ill after weeks of treating patients with it seems not to be an annual affair.The outcome should make clear the real danger ratio of Covid-19.

    Still pondering over those Italian deaths. Average said to be 81 years.10% over 90 years old.90 % over 70 years old.Nobody died from it under seventy years old?

    The governments's reactions to CV are another chapter.

    Nowadays governments are mainly made up of incompetent empire-compatibles. In the same way the empire gets away with bombing away poor people, those incompetents get away with every single stupidity they commit. They rarely step down. When they do they are sure to find an even better con-job;(Cf.Christine Lagarde,van der Leyen and so many others)

    The general public accepts incompetence, so the politicians know they can do anything their overlord wants them to. They are shouted at some times, made fun of in accomplice media, ridiculized by the workers, they don't care.

    In the evening they have their ration of high quality cocaine and they are feeling very special when they look down upon you common plebs next morning. Incompetence is the excuse of the century, but not a reason to loose the job.

    A third question that I want to raise.

    So it was in Wuhan in September 2019 that the World Military Games were held. I never heard of before, but yeah its just a sportive meeting between army personal from all over the world, in an olympic spirit I wager.

    Then it seems there was on the same day the opening of something called Event 201 said to be a simulation (Real time?computer game,Viral!?) of a virus outbreak.OK. So what?

    I don't want to look myself into this, because I've never liked Bill Gates, who did this, but I like to know from more inquisitive barflies ,if such a thing has really taken place. How long did it last? What was the outcome? And has this study been taken in account by government officials, be it in the USA or abroad?

    Because what if there was really nothing, just the announcement?

    CitizenX , Mar 19 2020 19:46 utc | 151

    Biological weapon Pentagon Programs- 01.16.18

    https://www.naturalblaze.com/2018/01/bio-weapons-pentagon.html


    Bulgarian journalist confronts US official over secret biolabs... 06.14.19

    http://armswatch.com/bulgarian-journalist-confronts-us-official-over-secret-biolabs/

    [Mar 20, 2020] I vaguely recall the polio era. There was a fair amount of panic. I don't remember lockdowns or anything like that. Other than polio and tuberculosis, maybe epidemics were more accepted 60 years ago?

    Mar 20, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Trailer Trash , Mar 19 2020 19:05 utc | 128

    I vaguely recall the polio era. There was a fair amount of panic. I remember lining up in the school gymnasium with everyone else in town to get a dose of oral vaccine. My father had a friend with a leg damaged by polio. He played slide guitar in a Country & Western band.

    I don't remember lockdowns or anything like that. Other than polio and tuberculosis, maybe epidemics were more accepted 60 years ago? Everyone got measles, mumps, chicken pox. That's just the way it was. I don't think most people thought about it much; too busy trying to make a living, just like nowadays.


    karlof1 , Mar 19 2020 19:49 utc | 152

    Here's a report on the current war against the unseen enemy . The question about polio is relevant IMO, but for a vastly different reason than what the OP likely had in mind. At the time, the ongoing war against the unseen enemy was taken very seriously as it affected all classes and especially city dwellers.

    Recall for centuries the Miasma Theory of Disease and related piety and fear of god were the primary explanations for the unexplainable. That dogma was challenged by a Persian scholar in the mid 1000s when the Arab world was where genuine science was being pursued while the West went looking for Devils, witches and heretics, but even the Arab world couldn't accept what we now know to be the truth of the matter.

    We needed to await the arrival of microscopes and Bacteriology to establish the Germ Theory of Disease in 1870. Death was everywhere and quite powerful.

    I recall the average life expectancy for Philadelphia in 1740 to be 20--lots of early childhood and child bearing deaths--with little differentiation between the slowly growing urban regions within the Colonies.

    Charlestown was the worst with its residents abandoning the city during Summer.

    FDR was the first genuinely handicapped POTUS, but he tried his best to conceal his disability. My Maternal Grandfather was kept stateside in 1918 thanks to the flu epidemic, while his cousin wasn't so lucky and died in the trenches, his mother never forgave my Maternal Grandmother for Fate's result.

    While dated (2010) this graphic illustrates the top 15 Communicable Diseases. Some will find this essay on the use of quarantine helpful by providing some historical context to the ongoing war against the unseen world.

    Red Ryder , Mar 19 2020 19:53 utc | 157
    @107 . Bluemot5

    There was no quarantine. They closed beaches. Told people to no go into the water. That was for a summer or two at most.
    I don't recall anything else. A kid up the street got it. He was a hell of an athlete but wound up with a brace on one leg. He was away fro some time and his return was the only sign that polio was really bad.

    People were deathly afraid of the first vaccine, injected. Dr. Salk invented that first vaccine.
    The Oral Vaccine really changed everything. Dr. Sabin changed the paradigm and saved several generations.

    [Mar 20, 2020] Tucker Carlson and China bashing

    Mar 20, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Minnesota Mary , says: Show Comment March 19, 2020 at 11:37 pm GMT

    @FB I, too, have been disappointed in Tucker Carlson's China bashing. I have thought that he was the best on FOX News, but now he is getting to be as bad as Sean Hannity.

    We may never know the origin of the coronavirus. It is foolish to try and assign blame at this point.

    [Mar 20, 2020] It used to be part of the American ethos, the idea that it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees

    Mar 20, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Twodees Partain , says: Show Comment March 20, 2020 at 12:26 am GMT

    @follyofwar Well, as the Cheyenne used to say, "It's a good day to die". If the ones who think they can rule over others push it too far," then the the sun will shine upon a good day to die". I remember that line from the novel "Little Big Man".

    It used to be part of the American ethos, the idea that it's better to die on your feet than to live on your knees. Levon Helm wrote a line in a song in the '80s: "You give your life to live your life". Some of us still see it that way.

    [Mar 20, 2020] Some plausible scenarios of the origin of the coronavirus

    Mar 20, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Thomasina , says: Show Comment March 20, 2020 at 1:02 am GMT

    Kevin Barrett – excellent article!

    There are so many scenarios. I haven't read all of the comments, so what I'm about to say may already have been touched on.

    1. The virus happened naturall y, transferred from a bat and eventually to humans.

    2. The virus accidentally escaped the Wuhan lab.

    3. The globalists did it. The globalists (the Chinese elite in concert with the U.S. multinational corporate elite) don't want things to change as both groups of elites are getting filthy rich off of the offshoring of jobs to China.

    Trump is a nationalist. He is upsetting their apple cart as he's placing tariffs on the goods manufactured in China by the U.S. multinational corporations, trying to force the U.S. multinationals to come back home. They don't want to, so they manufactured the virus thinking it would bring down the economy/stock market, thereby bringing down Trump.

    China plays along, feigns ignorance, and accuses the U.S. of trying to infect their citizens, Xi wears a mask. A few thousand old people dying is a small price to pay, in their minds.

    4. The U.S. multinational corporate elite did it alone, without China's knowledge , for the same reasons as stated in #3, to throw a wrench in the works, purposely sink the economy. With Trump gone, globalism could continue.

    5. The U.S. did it alone, without China's knowledge. The U.S. globalists realize globalism is ending and they have acquiesced to the U.S. nationalists. They are angry that China has not followed through with their part of the original deal, which is that China gets the offshored jobs, their elite get rich, and they get money to modernize, but she must open up more to the U.S. corporations and financial firms, which she has been reluctant to do.

    6. The nationalists did it in order to bring down globalism, put an end to it once and for all . Once people realize that supply lines (especially pharmaceuticals) thousands of miles away is a recipe for disaster, they'll scream for things to be changed. Trump has said he likes President Xi and the Chinese people, this is nothing personal, but he wants the jobs to return.

    7. China did it alone . The Chinese elite realize that globalism is ending, and they know the Chinese citizens will blame them for the loss of their jobs. The Chinese elite worry that the citizens will wonder why they've become filthy rich and they haven't. The Chinese elite plant the virus, but blame it on the U.S.

    8. The world elites, in collusion with the central banks, have blown massive financial bubbles. They realize they can't continue blowing the bubbles any bigger, but they don't see any way out without being blamed. They plant the virus in order to bring down the world economy, deflate the bubble. The virus takes the blame, not them. China blames the U.S., the U.S. blames China, some old people are sacrificed, and they raise a glass to the devil.

    I'm leaning towards #8.

    [Mar 20, 2020] The Chinese have officially accused the US to have, at a minimum, covered up early Covid-19 infections that took place in America several weeks before the epidemic broke out in Wuhan.

    Mar 20, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Iris , says: Show Comment March 20, 2020 at 2:03 am GMT

    ... I don't know whether you realise how the rest of the world is feeling at the moment: people are stunned as if the Apocalypse has come. They are worried about their very survival, and things are only going to get worse because the containment, lockdown, military special powers will likely extend for weeks and months ahead, as it will take months to gain control over the epidemic.

    The Chinese have officially accused the US to have, at a minimum, covered up early Covid-19 infections that took place in America several weeks before the epidemic broke out in Wuhan.

    Separate Japanese and Taiwanese epidemiologists have previously determined that only the US had the five strains of Coronavirus that could have generated the Covid-19:

    https://www.globalresearch.ca/covid-19-further-evidence-virus-originated-us/5706078

    The Chinese have scientists, military might and a powerful voice in the concert of nations.

    They are respected and credible, because they respect others' sovereignty and help in time of crisis.

    They won't passively stand accused of a crime committed by the US ... for which the whole world will soon want to hold somebody accountable for.

    Tor597 , says: Show Comment March 20, 2020 at 1:48 am GMT
    @Ron Unz Too many Americans are stuck on Pax Americana la la land and will never admit something so grave to American status. We saw exactly this during 9/11.

    [Mar 20, 2020] The virus and the Deep state

    Mar 20, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Ron Unz , says: Show Comment March 19, 2020 at 3:43 am GMT

    Well, I think there's a certain amount of circumstantial evidence suggesting that the Coronavirus outbreak may have been an American bioweapon attack against China (and Iran).

    But if so, I'm *extremely* skeptical that the perpetrators ever intended or imagined that it would leak back into the US and inflict the horrific economic and social damage that now seems unavoidable. How to explain this lack lack of foresight?

    The most obvious answer is that they were stupid and incompetent, but here's another point to consider

    In late 2002 there was the outbreak of SARS in China, a related virus but that was far more deadly and somewhat different in other characteristics. The virus killed hundreds of Chinese and spread into a few other countries before it was controlled and stamped out. The impact on the US and Europe was negligible, with just a small scattering of cases and only a death or two.

    So if American biowarfare analysts were considering a Coronavirus attack against China, isn't it quite possible they would have said to themselves that since SARS never significantly leaked back into the US or Europe, we'd similarly remain insulated from the Coronavirus?

    Obviously, such an analysis was foolish and mistaken, but would it have seemed so implausible at the time?

    https://www.unz.com/article/was-coronavirus-a-biowarfare-attack-against-china/#comment-3775042

    Father O'Hara , says: Show Comment March 19, 2020 at 3:55 am GMT
    Well, I have only recently heard of a guy named Francis Boyle,a law professor out of the Univ. Of Illinois. He is apparently an expert on bio-warfare treaties. He claims covid-19 is manmade,period.
    That is a very scary notion,from which most people will flee.
    As I have accepted that 9/11 was "the usual suspects," I guess it is definitely possible.
    Sasha , says: Show Comment March 19, 2020 at 4:00 am GMT
    @Ron Unz Maybe, but my take is an engineered market crash. This looks to me like a Nathan Rothschild sort of trick (according to legend) – propagating fake news about Napoleon's victory at Waterloo, crashing the markets, then snapping up the whole LSE for a penny to the pound. If so, you have to admire it, the sheer genius, the psychopathic beauty of it all.

    As a bonus, the Reichstag Fire also is an extremely efficient delivery system for the eugenics payload – a very virulent strain that almost exclusively targets the social burden (pensioners and already ill) while leaving alone the tax-farm base! Never in the history of tax-farming have the sheeple been stampeded and fleeced so thoroughly! Bravo!

    Flubber , says: Show Comment March 19, 2020 at 4:13 am GMT
    "The US cannot win a trade war with China."

    What kind of bollocks is this.

    Of course the US can win a trade war.

    The US is the customer, with the enormous trade deficit. Trump has been hugely effective with his tariff's policy in rehoming manufacturing to the US – a process that will vastly accelerate thanks to the Corona virus outbreak.

    I agree that 9-11 stink to high heaven and that PNAC are unmitigated bastards, but this capitulation to China is balls.

    Delta G , says: Show Comment March 19, 2020 at 4:16 am GMT
    @Ron Unz Stupidity is certainly an American Military essential behavior for promotion and success in the current US Armed Forces.

    But you can't have someone clever enough to create a Recombinant Designer Pathogen and be in the US Military.

    However, the psyops fucks would likely be ready to game the system should a natural outbreak occur which would be called a Pandemic even when its not and make everyone of our low quality leaders $hit their pants and go totally crazy. A mild fart with the claim its poison gas would make the Stock Markets Collapse.

    Carlton Meyer , says: Website Show Comment March 19, 2020 at 4:22 am GMT

    But if so, I'm *extremely* skeptical that the perpetrators ever intended or imagined that it would leak back into the US and inflict the horrific economic and social damage that now seems unavoidable. How to explain this lack lack of foresight?

    This is the same issue with cyberwar viruses. One can infect computers in Iran, but with the internet they may be passed onto the entire world, just like rap music.

    antibeast , says: Show Comment March 19, 2020 at 4:41 am GMT
    @Ron Unz

    But if so, I'm *extremely* skeptical that the perpetrators ever intended or imagined that it would leak back into the US and inflict the horrific economic and social damage that now seems unavoidable. How to explain this lack lack of foresight?

    One word: Trump. Because he could very well lose his reelection bid if the pandemic causes an economic recession which now seems highly likely given the stock market collapse.

    Cui Bono ? The people OPPOSED to Trump, variously referred to as the "Deep State" or the "National Security State" as described by Gore Vidal in his book which by the way Julian Assange was holding while being hauled away from the Ecuadorian Embassy.

    After Russiagate and Ukrainegate, THEY finally hit the bullseye with Coronagate.

    Si1ver1ock , says: Show Comment March 19, 2020 at 5:05 am GMT
    This is a pretty good article. I'll probably link to it.

    Some people think this is coming from City of London types. The US pursued a "strategy of tension" with China that may have allowed third party actors to intervene and get them fighting each other.

    There has been some Bad Blood between British elites and China for awhile now. It's not clear why.

    In this scheme, the US is the patsy, the Oswald to take the blame.

    Anonymous [392] Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 19, 2020 at 5:16 am GMT
    @Polemos Check this link out:

    https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/17/coronavirus-universal-basic-income-andrew-yang-134922

    The real gem in the whole article are the observations made by Yang himself:

    YANG: That's what freaks me out about the whole thing. What we're doing is saying things like, "Keep your social distance," and trying to stop the spread that way, which is fine. But we have shit for data. Like, we don't know what the infection rate is. And so, there's no reason we would ever be able to give the 'all-clear.' If you don't have any data, this whole thing is a nightmare that doesn't end. When you close schools, what gives you the all-clear to say, "OK, open them again"? Nothing. There's no data to compare it to. This whole thing is a fear-based approach with no end in sight. There's no catalyst to ever sound the all-clear. This whole thing is so fucked up.

    YANG: I think the nature of that guidance has to be different, personally. I think they need to be transparent about what kind of data we're relying on, to give people a sense of the timeline. Right now, our sense of the future is so cloudy. And you get the sense the president went from not taking this seriously to suddenly realizing its seriousness, and now we're reacting in various ways to slow the spread of the virus. But then what? I would be clearer as to what the timeline looks like, what data we're going to rely upon, how we're going to get that data, what steps we're taking to increase testing capacity and just give people a sense of the future.

    We need to know now what the future can look like under different scenarios and then be presented with what scenario we're in when that time comes. We've been on lockdown for half a week. Right now, the American people don't have any visibility into whether it's going to be four more weeks or four more months, and we don't know how those judgments are going to determined. As president, I would say, "Look, here's the information, here's the dashboard, here's what we're lining up, here's what we're hoping for, here's how circumstances could change, and thank you for doing your part -- if you proceed with like the rest of the country in flattening the curve and keeping things under this level, then we can look forward to this. " You know, so we could actually have a sense of accomplishment and purpose.

    So here we have it, replicated throughout the whole of the Western world. An open-ended clamp-down based on fear, with no timeline or road map, and no conditions set on when (or IF) things will get back to normal.

    For now, smells really fishy. Even if DS (Deep State) did not intentionally engineer this circumstance, they are decisively and very swiftly exploiting it to exert extreme control over everything .

    Franklin Ryckaert , says: Show Comment March 19, 2020 at 5:31 am GMT
    @antibeast On the contrary, for the deep state Trump is the ideal puppet. Those who are against Trump belong to the surface state , i.e. Democrats, Leftists in general and the equally Leftist main stream media. Real policy in the US is only made by the deep state .

    [Mar 20, 2020] Peel the onion back further and reveal if the elderly who died had previous pulmonary problems (e.g. emphysema, COPD, asthma, pulmonary fibrosis, cystic fibrosis, lung cancer, tuberculous, etc) and what immuno-suppressant medications they were taking.

    Mar 20, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    PokeTheTruth , Mar 19 2020 19:09 utc | 130

    The American people need to demand the age groups of all the deaths due to the SARS-CoV-2 variant of coronavirus. We will find the highest group that have succumbed to the disease are 60 years and older. I want to see numbers for each State in the Republic, not percentages.

    Then peel the onion back further and reveal if the elderly who died had previous pulmonary problems (e.g. emphysema, COPD, asthma, pulmonary fibrosis, cystic fibrosis, lung cancer, tuberculous, etc) and what immuno-suppressant medications they were taking.

    If in fact it turns out the majority who perish are old people, then the deaths could be attributed to influenza, which is the epidemic that is going on right now in the country. There are 29 million people infected and more than 4,500 have died so far with two months to go in the flu season.

    The patients are not being swabbed for influenza and testing for that disease, just COVID-19. This skews the numbers away from influenza so the media screams every day about COVID-19.

    [Mar 19, 2020] The only place place that has all five haplotypes is the US.

    Mar 19, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    occupatio , Mar 19 2020 16:38 utc | 63

    The fixation on bats distracts from the important fact, which is that China primarily has one haplotype (with instances of three others in small counts, including those brought in from from abroad). The China haplotype is distinct from the Iran one, and the Italy one. Therefore none of these locations can be the origin, because where the 'parent' of the virus comes from would also be a place that would have multiple 'children' or haplotypes of the virus. The only place place that has all five haplotypes is the US. You can talk all day about bats but that is to ignore the scientific data about haplotypes and the parent-child relationship it implies.

    On the ideological level, I see many comments saying its not racist to talk about Asians and weird foods. Let me point out that racism is not just discrimination, but discrimination from a position of power. A black slave cannot be racist against his plantation master no matter how much he hates him, because his individual 'prejudice' against the master does not alter the world and its system of prejudice. Racism issues from power, so viruses that originate from the US or western countries are NOT stigmatized as linked to white people or white culture, but viruses that originate from Africa or Asia are racially stigmatized. In any place, there are some people who eat 'weird' food, whether it be gator meat in Florida or bats in Palau. But only non-white countries get branded as places of 'disease'. That's because racism is the perpetuation of structures of power.

    Black slaves were prized in southern plantations because they were resistant to diseases like malaria. That is a fact, but it is also a historical reality that how people talk about diseases is part of racial and racist discourse.

    [Mar 19, 2020] Side effects of panic are not initially totally obvious

    Notable quotes:
    "... ...The notion of panic is best studied in the context of war. Subjected to fire, explosion etc. a military unit can be reduced to an unthinking mass, fleeing, dropping weapons and massacred by the advancing opponent. This is called panic, and it is never advisable, unlike a retreat performed in a controlled manner, minimizing the losses of the material, life and territory. ..."
    Mar 19, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Piotr Berman , Mar 19 2020 15:43 utc | 39

    ...The notion of panic is best studied in the context of war. Subjected to fire, explosion etc. a military unit can be reduced to an unthinking mass, fleeing, dropping weapons and massacred by the advancing opponent. This is called panic, and it is never advisable, unlike a retreat performed in a controlled manner, minimizing the losses of the material, life and territory.

    On personal level, I think I witnessed a trace of panic when I visited supermarket today. There is a wide aisle with paper goods on one side and frozen goods on the other. Toilet paper seems 95% gone, and so are frozen vegetables on the other side. Frozen stuff from other aisles seem untouched. Personally, I had to substitute canned peas for frozen peas I planned to buy. In any case, few reasons to expect major shortages.

    On a larger level, a number of governments in Europe reacts with panic, doing things that can seriously make things worse. When small countries close borders, there can be serious havoc. Tens of thousands of people, thousands of trucks are stuck.

    At least in USA, states have no authority to close borders. A smallish country like Slovakia can have severe shortages if hysterical neighbors (Poland and Hungary, I am not sure about Czechia) close borders. As supply chains cross borders to a large degree in EU, interrupting the border traffic can create unpredictable shortages.

    Additionally, creating big crowds (of stranded people) is very, very stupid under the circumstances.

    Rational policies would be to create the balance of needs and resources, take measures to increase critical supplies including test kits, medical equipment and medicines, find ways of humane and rational handling of travelers and so on.

    [Mar 19, 2020] People have completely lost their minds here and that is due to decades of social engineering which has created a culture devoid of critical thinking skills and a frighteningly docile populace

    Notable quotes:
    "... Now moving on to the COVID-19 virus and the reactions. At present it is without question, based on the statistical evidence, an overreaction of historical proportions. ..."
    "... The three areas, so far, where the virus has been the worst, N Italy, N China and Iran each have one thing in common - some of the worst air pollution on the planet which has been widely cited and as much as a decade ago it was noted that the results would be compromised immune systems, diminished lung functions and outbreaks of related health issues. So what we have essentially is an environment which was ripe for such viruses to proliferate and population that is vulnerable to such things. ..."
    "... BTW Russ is correct on his note about bio-weapons and the funding for such things is always there even as the accounting methods serve to hide where these funds go. ..."
    Mar 19, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Allen , Mar 19 2020 14:27 utc | 28

    People have completely lost their minds here and that is due to decades of social engineering which has created a culture devoid of critical thinking skills and a frighteningly docile populace. Accepting the narrative of so-called (and ideologically and often financially) experts is demanded of everyone lest you be cited as a "conspiracy monger." We could cite literally all day the number of "whacked out" conspiracies that ended up being factual but that's for another time.

    Having said that it is the case that at present all of what b is saying in this post is almost certainly the case- excepting the bio weapons narrative which is virtually impossible to prove and if this is the case it was a very poor job of utilizing those bio-weapons. And there is most definitely a racist element to this amongst the right-wingers which will be played up.

    Now moving on to the COVID-19 virus and the reactions. At present it is without question, based on the statistical evidence, an overreaction of historical proportions. The only option that changes this is if there is something further that we do not know and for this we are to place our faith in governments and institutions that have consistently lied to us and manipulated the public for decades. Someone tell me that we are actually suppose to hold our noses and this time believe the "official narrative." It would actually go against the proven evidence, that these entities are proven liars, for us to do so.

    The virus itself is just that - a virus even if it is particularly virulent which is still up for debate. The notions of how to address this, at least the ones peddled to us, are simply wrongheaded and fit a certain model of the medical establishment that BTW is part and parcel of the same system that has brought us to the point of massive ecological collapse. Let's not separate that out.

    The three areas, so far, where the virus has been the worst, N Italy, N China and Iran each have one thing in common - some of the worst air pollution on the planet which has been widely cited and as much as a decade ago it was noted that the results would be compromised immune systems, diminished lung functions and outbreaks of related health issues. So what we have essentially is an environment which was ripe for such viruses to proliferate and population that is vulnerable to such things.

    Keep in mind that viruses constantly mutate and there are myriad viruses that are unknown and never to be known until something like this occurs. So all talk of some "silver bullet"- be it vaccine or other medical discovery- is at best short-term if not a Trojan Horse.

    The solution is to have an economic social order that creates environments where the external environment is such that the inhabitants are less likely to be impacted by such contagions. Right now we have the exact opposite. So say what you want about COVID and pretend that you can find a "fix" but once this passes if we are forced to return to the same omnicidal economic system we will be right back here a few years from now.

    BTW Russ is correct on his note about bio-weapons and the funding for such things is always there even as the accounting methods serve to hide where these funds go.

    [Mar 19, 2020] Drastic measures taken by governments and private institutions suggest that they view the coronavirus as a huge threat but the facts does not confirm that. That only logical explanation of such an overreaction is that they rightly or wrongly suspect that this is an artificially created virus that escaped labs

    Mar 19, 2020 | www.theamericanconservative.com

    Aug a day ago • edited

    I will unfortunately have to go against the grain here and say that I still fail to see the immense danger of the virus.

    The argument this article makes - particularly in its third paragraph - that drastic measures taken by governments and private institutions means that the virus is a huge threat doesn't logically follow. No matter how drastic the measures, how large the public's panic or how rabid the panic buying, my chance of dying from the virus even if contracting it is, as a sub-60 year old, healthy person still at roughly 1%, not much higher than viruses that gain little to no media or political attention.

    The fact that it affects old people, but unlike many other viruses not babies is another factor that should lessen fear, rather than increase it.

    This article summarizes the poll but mentions no reasons why those who do not believe the mainstream narrative should change their opinions other than empty polemic statements (such as "It would require deliberately ignoring these developments or accepting a completely false narrative about them to conclude that the threat has been overblown at this point.")

    In lieu of proper counter-arguments, it is false to assume that only those willfully ignorant or believing in false narratives would not be as concerned about this virus as those in the media and others blowing it out proportion.

    Michael Cole Aug a day ago
    A thought. I have often heard the regime in Beijing described as evil, but not stupid. Why on earth would they have shut down an entire province and partially shut down their whole country with all the attendant societal disruption and economic devastation if they didn't think COV is a lot more than flu? Remember, the Chinese are famously fatalistic about life and death (that is a polite way of saying that they care less about individual human lives than we do). And what about the Italians. Were they just nervous nellies who had an irrational panic attack over nothing? OBVIOUSLY they, and many other countries, think this is a lot more serious than influenza.
    sglover Aug a day ago
    my chance of dying from the virus even if contracting it is, as a sub-60 year old, healthy person still at roughly 1%, not much higher than viruses that gain little to no media or political attention. The fact that it affects old people, but unlike many other viruses not babies is another factor that should lessen fear, rather than increase it

    Nobody really has *any* solid idea of the epidemiology of this yet, so your blithe 1% is a kind of wish-thinking. In the States, thanks to the lack of testing (i.e., the failure to ramp up basic precautionary public health responses), **any** confident assertions of rates and chances really just serve to flag the speaker as somebody who doesn't know how much he doesn't know. Nassim Yaleb has some interesting thoughts about the real logic of our situation:

    Play Hide
    Aug sglover a day ago
    First of all, you assume that I don't give a damn. I do. I don't think the virus is unimportant. No virus is.

    Second, the lack of certainty plays in favor of my argument rather than yours: We do already have numbers on the amount of people infected, the amount of people who recovered and the amount of people who died. From the latter two, we can surmise the percentage chance of a person surviving an infection. Combining this with the percentage of people who died who were over the age of 60 (80%) and the number of those people who had pre-existing, severe conditions (75%) gives us a good idea.

    Those who became infected with the virus but either didn't know that it was more than a common fever or who became infected and had symptoms mild or even non-existent won't figure into the number of people infected. Hence, the actual percentage chance of dying from the virus is even lower, since only those who had symptoms severe enough and got tested will figure into it. The reverse doesn't apply.

    Hence, the actual risk of dying is even lower than the numbers suggest.

    sglover Aug a day ago
    We don't even know if reinfection is a possibility. As I said, at this point *all* serene predictions of the disease's likely course are fatuous. What the hell are you, The Hobby Epidemiologist?
    Aug sglover a day ago
    Funny how you specify that "serene" predictions in particular are fatuous while excluding pessimistic ones. Perhaps it's you who is driven not by data but something else, rather than me?

    LeeInWV sglover 4 hours ago

    You are right. We are flying blind as long as we are not testing widely. However, there is a lot of data available from other places and using that data we can actually extrapolate quite a bit. Check this out:

    https://medium.com/@tomaspu...

    [Mar 19, 2020] I look to the narrative we get in North America, irrespective of the topic, and the pattern is the same

    Highly recommended!
    Mar 19, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Curmudgeon , says: Show Comment March 18, 2020 at 5:40 pm GMT

    @eah

    I'm agnostic on the subject of COVID-19: its origin, how it first infected humans, its epidemiological spread

    Perhaps agnostic is not the best choice of words, but overall, I agree.

    It is not impossible that the virus did not "escape" from the Wuhan Lab, but it is unlikely.

    That the Chinese have sequenced a virus to do something unexpected, then published it, is unremarkable. That others may have done the same or similar and not published it, would be remarkable. I would consider the "Five Eyes" and Israel entirely capable – and likely to do that, given they operate as one.

    I look to the narrative we get in North America, irrespective of the topic, and the pattern is the same:
    1- "report" the topic;
    2- announce "breaking news" to establish the narrative;
    3- repeat the narrative endlessly saturating the media;
    4- ignore contrary evidence;
    5- if #4 becomes too difficult, discredit it by a bait and switch;
    6- pronounce the narrative is still solid and alternative information false;
    7- rinse and repeat.
    (I suppose, if all else fails, blame Russia/Putin could be added.)

    In context of the above, I am leaning toward that it wasn't an accident and in all likelihood it wasn't China.

    [Mar 18, 2020] A stance not too removed from Dr Joel Kettner's

    Mar 18, 2020 | off-guardian.org

    Norman Pilon ,

    A stance not too removed from Dr Joel Kettner's:

    Source of all that follows: wolfgang wodarg

    01/03/2020 Corona-Hype:

    [. . .]

    by [Dr.] Wolfgang Wodarg

    The corona hype is not based on any extraordinary public health danger. However, it causes considerable damage to our freedom and personal rights through frivolous and unjustified quarantine measures and restrictions. The images in the media are frightening and the traffic in China's cities seems to be regulated by the clinical thermometer.

    Evidence based epidemiological assessment is drowning in the mainstream of fear mongers in labs, media and ministries.

    The carnival in Venice was cancelled after an elderly dying hospital patient was tested positive. When a handful of people in Northern Italy also were tested positive, Austria immediately closed the Brenner Pass temporarily.

    Due to a suspected case of coronavirus, more than 1000 people were not allowed to leave their hotel in Tenerife. On the cruise ship Diamond Princess 3700 passengers could not disembark., Congresses and touristic events are cancelled, economies suffer and schools in Italy have an extra [holiday].

    At the beginning of February, 126 people from Wuhan were brought to Germany by plane and remained there in quarantine two weeks in perfect health. Corona viruses were detected in two of the healthy individuals.

    We have experienced similar alarmist actions by virologists in the last two decades. WHO's "swine flu pandemic" was in fact one of the mildest flu waves in history and it is not only migratory birds that are still waiting for "birds flu". Many institutions that are now again alerting us to the need for caution have let us down and failed us on several occasions. Far too often, they are institutionally corrupted by secondary interests from business and/or politics.

    If we do not want to chase frivolous panic messages, but rather to responsibly assess the risk of a spreading infection, we must use solid epidemiological methodology. This includes looking at the "normal", the baseline, before you can speak of anything exceptional.

    Until now, hardly anyone has paid attention to corona viruses. For example, in the annual reports of the Robert-Koch-Institute (RKI) they are only marginally mentioned because there was SARS in China in 2002 and because since 2012 some transmissions from dromedaries to humans have been observed in Arabia (MERS). There is nothing about a regularly recurring presence of corona viruses in dogs, cats, pigs, mice, bats and in humans, even in Germany.

    However, children's hospitals are usually well aware, that a considerable proportion of the often severe viral pneumonia is also regularly caused or accompanied by corona viruses worldwide.

    In view of the well-known fact that in every "flu wave" 7-15% of acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) are coming along with coronaviruses, the case numbers that are now continuously added up are still completely within the normal range.

    About one per thousand infected are expected to die during flu seasons. By selective application of PCR-tests – for example, only in clinics and medical outpatient clinics – this rate can easily be pushed up to frightening levels, because those, who need help there are usually worse off than those, who are recovering at home. The role of such s selection bias seems to be neglected in China and elsewhere.

    Since the turn of the year, the focus of the public, of science and of health authorities has suddenly narrowed to some kind of blindness. Some doctors in Wuhan (12 million inhabitants) succeeded in attracting worldwide attention with initially less than 50 cases and some deaths in their clinic, in which they had identified corona viruses as the pathogen.

    The colourful maps that are now being shown to us on paper or screens are impressive, but they usually have less to do with disease than with the activity of skilled virologists and crowds of sensationalist reporters.

    We are currently not measuring the incidence of coronavirus diseases, but the activity of the specialists searching for them.

    Wherever such the new tests are carried out – there about 9000 tests per week available in 38 laboratories throughout Europe on 13 February 2020 – there are at least single cases detected and every case becomes a self-sustaining media event. The fact alone that the discovery of a coronavirus infection is accompanied by a particularly intensive search in its vicinity explains many regional [clusters].

    The horror reports from Wuhan were something, that virologists all over the world are waiting for. Immediately, the virus strains present in the refrigerators were scanned and compared feverishly with the reported newcomers from Wuhan. A laboratory at the Charité won the race at the WHO and was the first to be allowed to market its in-house tests worldwide. Prof C. Drosten was interviewed on 23rd of january 2020 and described how the Test was established. He said, that he cooperated with a Partner from China, who confirmed the specific sensitivity of the Charitè-Test for the Wuhan coronavirus. Other Tests from different Places followed soon and found their market.

    However, it is better not to be tested for corona viruses. Even with a slight "flu-like" infection the risk of coronavirus detection would be 7% – 15% . This is, what a prospective monitoring in Scotland (from 2005 to 2013) may teach us. The scope, the possible hits and the significance of the new tests are not [yet] validated. It would be [interesting] to have [some] tests not only on airports and cruising ships but on [German] or [Italian] cats, mice or even bats.

    If you find some new virus RNA in a Thai cave ore a Wuhan hospital, it takes a long time to map its prevalence in different hosts worldwide.

    But if you want to give evidence to a spreading pandemic by using PCR-Tests only, this is what should have been done after a prospective cross sectional [protocol].

    So beware of side effects. Nowadays positive PCR tests have tremendous consequences for the everyday life of the patient and his wider environment, as can be seen in all media without effort.

    However, the finding itself has no clinical significance. It is just another name for acute respiratory illnesses (ARI), which as every year put 30% to 70% of all people in our countries more or less out of action for a week or two every winter.

    According to a prospective ARI-virus monitoring in Scotland from 2005 to 2013, the most common pathogens of acute respiratory diseases were: 1. rhinoviruses, 2. influenza A viruses, 3. influenza B viruses, 4. RS viruses and 5. coronaviruses.

    This order changed slightly from year to year. Even with viruses competing for our mucous membrane cells, there is apparently a changing quorum, as we know it from our intestines in the case of microorganisms and from the Bundestag in the case of political groups.

    So if there is now to be an increasing number of "proven" coronavirus infections. in China or in Italy: Can anyone say how often such examinations were carried out in previous winters, by whom, for what reason and with which results? When someone claims that something is increasing, he must surely refer to something, that has been observed before.

    It can be stunning, when an experienced disease control officer looks at the current turmoil, the panic and the suffering it causes. I'm sure many of those responsible public health officers would probably risk their jobs today, as they did with the "swine flu" back then, if they would follow their experience and oppose the mainstream.

    Every winter we have a virus epidemic with thousands of deaths and with millions of infected people even in Germany. And coronaviruses always have their share.

    So if the Federal Government wants to do something good, it could learn from epidemiologists in Glasgow and have all clever minds at the RKI observe prospectively (!!!) and watch how the virom of the German population changes from year to year.

    Some questions for the evaluation of the current findings:

    1) Which prospective, standardised monitoring of acute respiratory diseases with or without fever (ILI, ARI) is used for the epidemiological risk assessment of coronavirus infections observed in Wuhan Italy, South Korea, Iran and elsewhere (baseline).

    2) How do the comparable (!) results of earlier observations differ from those now reported by the WHO? (in China, in Europe, in Italy, in Germany, etc.)

    3) What would we observe this ARI-season if we would ignore the new PCR-testing?

    4) How valid and how comparable are the detection methods used with regard to sensitivity, specificity and pathogenetic or prognostic relevance?

    5) What is the evidence or probability that the observed corona viruses 2019/2020 are more dangerous to public health than previous variants?

    6) If you find them now, how can you [prove], they were not there (e.g. in animals) before.
    What considerations have been made or taken into account to exclude or minimise sources of bias (sources of error)?

    Note: the original source of this quote contains embedded links not here apparent.

    https://youtu.be/p_AyuhbnPOI

    [Mar 18, 2020] Panic is unwarranted: the number of cases are exponential for several weeks after epidemic starts and then they begin to decrease. That's happened in China, South Korea, and is happening in Italy and Iran right now.

    Mar 18, 2020 | www.statnews.com

    Richard Tovar March 18, 2020 at 12:30 am

    Finally, a great perspective on this fiasco. I agree, we cannot make such important decisions with so little data to back it up. I would also add that we do have some data that suggests that it's not an extinction level event as it's being portrayed.

    Look at the numbers in the countries that have been through it already, number of cases are exponential for about 2 weeks and then they begin to decrease. That's happened in China, South Korea, and is happening in Italy and Iran right now.

    If China has 3,200 deaths (plus 2600 critical condition patients) and Italy has 2500 deaths (plus 2000 critical condition cases), why would we expect much more in the US?

    According to the CDC MMWR, during week 9 of 2020, pneumonia killed 2280 people and the flu another 384; during week 8 of 2020, 2911 died of pneumonia and the flu killed another 415.

    That's more deaths in 2 weeks in the US than all of China's deaths due to covid-19 since the epidemic started.

    Why are we not talking about this? I know that we have a pretty good idea of what the flu does every year and I agree that we had no idea what covid-19 was going to do in a country in January, but it's March and we have seen what it's done in a couple of countries and it's not any worse than any other disease that we encounter every year.

    I also agree that when this is all done and we finally get more data, the fatality rate for covid-19 will certainly be less than 1%. Then what? After the extensive damage to every part of our society? For what? What about the people that rely on a weekly paycheck? The small business that rely on heavy customer traffic? Will we hold someone responsible? Will it be the news media trying to sell newspapers with negative headlines?

    Scientists that arrive to a conclusion with no evidence to support it? Are we going to freak out every year because bad things can possibly happen? Maybe if we work really hard this year we can come up with something for next year that will really kill us all but it won't be a virus this time, it will be our own stupidity and lack of common sense.

    [Mar 17, 2020] Panic Pandemic Why are people who should know better buying the Covid19 hype OffGuardian

    While definably overhyped, the threat does exist; especially for older people and smokers. So measures taken by governments are not an overkill.
    Mar 17, 2020 | off-guardian.org

    What is nCoV19? I honestly do not know.

    The more the fear porn ramps up, the less certain I become of any aspect of the narrative surrounding it. We are definitely all being discouraged from questioning its virulence, discouraged from referring to its official fatality and case numbers, which do not correlate with the level of fear we are being told is appropriate. There is certainly a massive and multifaceted attempt to fudge and inflate those numbers to bring them in line with the 'response'.

    This brings us back to our revelation that good old Wikipedia have been downgrading the CFR of the Spanish Flu. It's hard not to see this as part of the same process.

    The actual death rates just aren't high enough. So talk them up, play pea and thimble games with the stats, and do some Memory-Holing so that the 1918 pandemic suddenly has a very similar CFR, allowing your tame media to make all the right comparisons in their op eds and editorials, pointing out how many millions died back then despite it only having a fatality ratio of 2.5%.

    They seem aware of the discrepancy, and are making efforts to prevent people researching it. The WHO are warning people not to read "too much" about the disease in order to protect their mental health. In a write up on the reccomendations, the BBC says this :

    There is a lot of misinformation swirling around – stay informed by sticking to trusted sources of information such as government and NHS websites

    Whether this virus is as imaginary as some are saying, or entirely real, it's being hyped to a point beyond any connection with reality, and not just in the media. It's a multi-pronged assault on our minds right now. Allegedly reliable and authoritative medical professionals are just as likely to talk propaganda at you as some government minister or media halfwit.


    Gary Weglarz ,

    Veterans Today describes itself as follows at its website: ("VeteransToday.com (VT) is an independent alternative journal for the clandestine services focused on U.S. Foreign Policy and Military Issues.")

    A rather interesting report from VT to say the least.

    https://www.veteranstoday.com/2020/03/15/china-us-brought-covid19-to-china-during-army-games-hid-disease-in-us-as-influenza/

    John ,

    RT has a headline "21 year old Spanish football coach dies of corona virus" Click on the story. He had leukemia.

    Dungroanin ,

    Will just sticking to actual facts make a blind bit of difference to the panicked? I fear not.

    97% of all infected in the whole world seem to have recovered.

    Of the 3% who didn't the AVERAGE age is above 70.

    There is a trade off between a shorter period and more cases at the same time and the same total number but not so many at the same time over a longer period by trying to isloate people who do get it.

    A safe vaccine must be ar least a year away for the NEXT return of the virus.

    Is there any objection to these facts?
    -- --

    Facts?
    Apparently italians are so far advanced in their doom they are letting a body remain in a house without collecting it .

    Apparently the 'young man' in his 50's was killed by the virus in the UK.

    Are These 'facts' true? Can anyone post any links to them?

    Thom ,

    It's fairly clear the coronavirus is both a cover and an excuse for a) temporary financial collapse; b) a vicious trade war with China and c) gaslighting the peoples of western 'democracies' into accepting semi-fascist government. As soon as the markets are at rock bottom and China, Iran and the eurozone damaged as much as possible, a vaccine will most probably be 'found', the markets will 'soar' and the majority will thank their political leaders for pulling them back from the abyss – forgetting that many of the control measures will still be in place and their pensions, investments and, quite likely, bank accounts will have been quietly ransacked.

    aspnaz ,

    Totally agree. Here in HK we have had 4 deaths from Covid-19 over the past three months. Here is a link to the HK covid-19 website that even gives you details of every case https://wars.vote4.hk/en/ . Initially the HK people paniced and most improved their personal hygiene: hand washing, masks etc. All public gathering facilities were closed, such as all the public sports facilities, but now they are all opening again and things are returning to normal as the predictions of massive death prove to be false. I don't know what is happening in other countries, but here in HK (and the same according to relatives in Taiwan) it has turned out to be a bit of a nothing burger. Strangely, I have posted this comment on a number of fear porn alt websites and had it removed.

    Bryan ,

    The modelling suggests that people over 60 are particularly vulnerable (for obvious age related issues) and that the sheer numbers from this group will quickly overwhelm health provision – so few will be priority treated and many will die from avoidable complications. This is not hype and requires a serious intetventionalist response. I do not doubt however that such measures may be come a permanent part of our slide towards the authoritarian Right.

    Jen ,

    There is now news of a 21-year-old Spanish football coach, a guy called Francisco Garcia , dying from COVID-19. He had an underlying condition (leukaemia) which he did not know of until he had symptoms of COVID-19 infection and went to hospital.

    Garcia is likely to be the tip of the proverbial iceberg of young people who do not know that they have dormant health issues until their immune systems become stressed or infection with COVID-19 stirs up the dormant health problems.

    During their late teenage / young adult years, people often pick up diseases or pathogens – the various herpes viruses and the Epstein-Barr virus that causes glandular fever come to mind – and for the most these issues resolve or their symptoms go away but the viruses that cause them continue to stay in the body and create problems later when the immune system is stressed by another pathogen.

    How many young people these days might have dormant conditions, viruses or bacteria causing no problems at all until they come into situations where their immune systems are stressed, such as but not limited to situations like working two or more jobs in insecure or dangerous conditions, living in share arrangements with strangers whose medical histories are unknown, and being unsure of future prospects? They may also be vulnerable to COVID-19 more than we realise.

    Mucho ,

    "If you ever doubted that corruption is now endemic and all our institutions – political, legal, medical – are stacked with yes-men and jobsworths or fools prepared to put their names to any junk proclamation that might get them a raise or save their professional skins, just think of this article."

    Not forgetting the enormous army of dependable chaps from "The Lodge", who can always be relied upon to grit their teeth and say whatever is required to "retain order."

    George Mc ,

    There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.

    Attributed to Mark Twain.

    Dave Hansell ,

    Presumably that would also include statistics on previous years flu cases, suicide statistics, deaths from car accidents statistics, deaths from knife crime, or Ben population statistics?

    Or are some statistics more valid than others depending on their utility in arguing a particular case or agenda?

    George Mc ,

    Twain – or whoever- was drawing attention to the easiness of manipulating statistics – which is why we should scrutinise them as Catte has done above.

    George Mc ,

    By a coincidence this wondrous Lancet article is one I accessed myself just a few days back and I noted that arresting statement:

    We re-estimated mortality rates by dividing the number of deaths on a given day by the number of patients with confirmed COVID-19 infection 14 days before. On this basis, using WHO data on the cumulative number of deaths to March 1, 2020, mortality rates would be 5·6% (95% CI 5·4–5·8) for China and 15·2% (12·5–17·9) outside of China.

    i.e. mortality rates outside China are three times greater than inside. Scary stuff. I presume that the number of deaths mentioned are from within the confirmed infected sample? Surely it would be too cynical to assume that they added in deaths from outside? But, as with the UK deaths so far, the dead may have had other illnesses too.

    ... ... ...

    Willem ,

    Here is a report from Northern Italy of an Italian dr that I consider to be true.

    He says that the origen of the virus is the media who created a panic instead of a pandemic and much more. Tempting to quote but better read for yourself.

    Hat tip to Milosovic who previously added this link

    https://libya360.wordpress.com/2020/03/13/the-real-case-fatality-rate-of-the-novel-coronavirus-in-italy-is-at-least-10-times-lower-than-the-official-data/

    RobG ,

    I'd be very cautious about anything that 'authority' tells you. I'm in a part of south west France that geographically is not far from northern Italy.

    Just about everyone where I am is saying that the covid 19 stuff is complete and utter bullshit.

    Remember, covid 19 is brought to you by exactly the same people who brought to you 9/11, and the invasion of Iraq, etc, etc, etc.

    Ivan ,

    In Italy today there were 345 deaths from coronavirus, 368 yesterday. There is an endless flood of patients in the hospitals, hospitals are being divided into hospitals trating coronavirus cases and hospitals for non infected people. An emergency call for which the medics arrived before in 10 minutes, now takes 50 minutes (Lombardia).

    You don't know what you are talking about. Go take a look at the Italian news sites (google translate).

    Barovsky ,

    Hmmm . Well I'm almost 75 with a heart condition and don't want to die gasping for breath. So yes, for most, it's no big deal but anyone over 40 is at risk, so even if 'only' 1% die in the UK, that's a lot of people. But most important of all, is the threat (potentially) it poses to capitalism. Things will never be the same again.

    Ieuan Einion ,

    As I understand it, 30,000 people have died of this winter's particular strain of influenza in the USA, which is par for the course, around 0.01% of those infected. If the Italian and Iranian experiences to date are anything to go by, the infection/mortality ratio is much greater for CorviD-19.

    [Mar 17, 2020] COVID-19 vs. tuberculosis

    Mar 17, 2020 | off-guardian.org

    Emily Durron ,

    In line with the vitally important reference in the article to WHO estimates that 290 000-650 000 respiratory deaths occur each year associated with seasonal flu, the following cannot be repeated often enough.

    The ONS reported that in the 2017 to 2018 winter period, there were an estimated 50,100 excess winter deaths in England and Wales alone. The report attributed these deaths to "the predominant strain of flu, the effectiveness of the influenza vaccine and below-average winter temperatures".

    Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2017to2018provisionaland2016to2017final

    So far, nCov has killed fewer than 50 people in the entire UK.

    And yet, two years ago, not a single person wore a face mask, no flights were cancelled, nobody refused to shake hands, not a single academic institution switched to distance learning, no football was postponed, the England cricket team was not called home from a sunlit corner of the former empire and no damn fools ran out to Tesco to clear the shelves of toilet rolls and pasta.

    And while we are talking about infectious respiratory diseases, the following are WHO statistics for 2018. The name of the disease (see if you can guess) comes at the end.

    • A total of 1.5 million people died from this disease in 2018.
    • An estimated 10 million people fell ill with this disease worldwide.
    • In 2018, 1.1 million children fell ill with it globally, and there were 205 000 child deaths due to it.
    • There were cases in all countries and age groups.

    But this disease is curable and preventable.

    The fact is though that the western media, governments and the ignorant population do not give a shit about it because eight countries account for two thirds of the total, namely India followed by China, Indonesia, the Philippines, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh and South Africa.

    The disease is, of course, TB.

    [Mar 16, 2020] The Coronavirus Conundrum as interpreted by Average Joe.

    Mar 16, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    PokeTheTruth , Mar 15 2020 17:20 utc | 3

    The Coronavirus Conundrum as interpreted by Average Joe.

    Reporter: "Excuse me sir, have you been tested for coronavirus yet?"
    Average Joe: "No, I haven't."
    Reporter: "Aren't you worried?"
    Average Joe: "No."
    Reporter: "Why not?"
    Average Joe: "I don't have any symptoms."
    Reporter: "But you could be a carrier and not know it."
    Average Joe: "Uh huh. Say, can I ask you a question?"
    Reporter: "Sure, go ahead."
    Average Joe: "What are the symptoms of coronavirus?"
    Reporter: "Well, that would be coughing, sneezing, chills, intestinal disorder and fever."
    Average Joe: "And what are the symptoms of influenza?"
    Reporter: " I think they are the same."
    Average Joe: "Aren't there millions of cases of influenza compared to coronavirus?"
    Reporter: "Well yes, that's true."
    Average Joe: "And people could have influenza and not know it and spread it, too?"
    Reporter: "Yes, I guess so."
    Average Joe: "So why aren't you asking me if I should be tested for influenza, instead?"
    Reporter: "Because coronavirus has killed about 50 people in the U.S. so far"
    Average Joe: "Influenza has killed over 4,500 Americans so far."

    Here we witness Average Joe thinks logically. Since there are more people infected with influenza than coronavirus and the symptoms are the same and more people have died, he should be tested for influenza before coronavirus. But the media isn't focused on influenza, they want people to be afraid of coronavirus because of the huge amount of attention it is getting in the press around the world. And that's the truth.

    [Mar 16, 2020] The USA now experience the period when the medical personnel became the most prominent victim of the authorities incompetence

    Highly recommended!
    Mar 15, 2020 | angrybearblog.com

    likbez , March 15, 2020 6:13 pm

    In most countries COVID-19 is regional with one province (and within this province one large city) as the epicenter.

    Jim Bianco's model is too primitive and as such unnecessary alarmist.

    The early stages of any flu epidemic are always exponential. But from some point propagation slows down considerably as the virus has difficulties to find new vulnerable people either because number of people with immunity increases (COVID-19 on average lasts less then a month; often just two weeks and around 90% of cases are mild ), or the measures were taken to "flatten the curve", or the weather or other conditions became unfavorable to the virus.

    Current exponential growth can also be explained by the fact that CDC completely botched testing. So a better availability of tests with time produces a false exponential increase in cases.

    In a sense the first half of March in the USA corresponds to the first half of Jan in Wuhan when the authorities did not yet resort to drastic actions (especially true for NYC, which looks like a giant cruise ship to me with all corresponding problems with AC, high density of population, frequent interaction with sick people via public transport including subway as infection points, etc ).

    This is also the period when the medical personnel became the most prominent victim of the authorities incompetence.

    I am no so much concerned with number of infection among "commoners" as with the number of infections of medical personnel. Depletion of medical personnel will greatly complicate the picture.

    Working in hazmat suits exhaust people, especially women, very quickly and thus make them more susceptible to the infection. In many cases you also need to wear adult pampers. It might well be that this is an overkill for this particular infection and less drastic measures like surgical scrubs can be as effective to protect medical workers.

    Research published in Feb had found that out of 138 patients studied at one Wuhan hospital, 29% were healthcare workers. Over 3K medical workers in China were infected and at least 18 died with ~ half of them under 40. Looks like heavy contact with infected patients make medical workers prognosis worse than for "commoners"

    Retired people over 70 now should self-quarantine and outside of senior facilities they are by-and-large responsible for their own health. When I see them on cruse ships in late Feb and March I just think how many reckless persons are among older folk. Most of them are also wealthy enough to order food via home delivery, not to drive to the store.

    Still on recent visit to department store there were a lot of grannies in the lines (and completely depleted shelves ;-). Looks like they are braving possible infection with the regular flu, if not coronavirus as typically several people cough within the large store.

    There should be some level of individual responsibility here , especially among seniors who are retired.

    But, at the same time, "Whom the Gods would destroy they first make mad"

    likbez , March 16, 2020 12:34 am

    Terry, March 15, 2020 7:25 pm

    Thanks for your last comment Run. You saved me the trouble.

    Famous quote “They had learned nothing and forgotten nothing” is applicable to the current situation in the USA. Looks like the US authorities learned nothing from SARC epidemics, which BTW hit Toronto.

    Let me clarify my previous post (which does suffers from wordiness as run75441 correctly pointed out).

    There are two diseases bunged into one in COVID-19: one is flu-like and is no threat (just a nuisance and Bert Schlitz is absolutely correct about this part) and the second is the SARC-like destructive virus pneumonia which is an extremely serious threat that has long time health consequences for survivors (lung fibrosis of various degrees similar to those which is the consequence of pneumonia caused by electronic cigarettes.)

    Those curves above do not distinguish between them and as such have no value.

    IMHO the curves that matter are “serious and critical cases” and the “medical workers who are in serious or critical conditions.”

    [Mar 15, 2020] Another Cruise Ship Is Stranded At Sea As 5 Passengers Crew Test Positive

    Mar 15, 2020 | www.zerohedge.com

    Another Cruise Ship Is Stranded At Sea As 5 Passengers & Crew Test Positive by Tyler Durden Sun, 03/15/2020 - 13:00 After being denied entry to a port in San Juan and several other Caribbean ports, the cruise ship MS Braemer is the latest cruise ship to be dangerously stranded at sea after at least five cases were confirmed on board, and another 40 passengers and crew have been quarantined in the hold after exhibiting flu-like symptoms.

    Puerto Rico denied the ship entry yesterday after a rumor about another ship allowing infected passengers to disembark in San Juan sparked a public uproar, leading the governor to ban all cruise ships from docking. The transatlantic cruise ship, which is carrying some 600 passengers, is frantically searching for somewhere to dock after it was refused entry at several Caribbean ports.

    The vessel, which is carrying 682 passengers and 381 crew members, arrived in the Bahamas on Saturday. The ship was prevented from docking, but was given permission to drop anchor southwest of Freeport, according to CNN.

    In a statement, British cruise company Fred Olsen Cruise Lines said on Sunday that "no other Caribbean ports were willing to accept the ship because of local sensitivities towards COVID-19 coronavirus."

    Presently, the Braemar is anchored about 25 miles offshore from the Bahamas waiting for clearance from the local government to bring aboard vital food, fuel and medications and two doctors and two nurses who are preparing to assist the cruise's onboard medical team.

    "No other Caribbean ports were willing to accept the ship because of local sensitivities towards COVID-19 coronavirus," the company said in a statement. The British government was engaged in a diplomatic effort to find a solution to the drama.

    A spokeswoman for the cruise line told CNN that "all options on where to go" were being considered, including returning to the cruise's starting point in Southampton, back in the UK.

    "We are exploring a number of opportunities and working extremely hard to find a resolution," she said. "It is an option to do a transatlantic crossing but we need to weigh that up against other options."

    "The key thing for us is to get guests home as quickly and as safely as possible."

    Most of the passengers aboard the ship are British, but the group also includes Canadian, Australian, Belgian, Colombian, Irish, Italian, Japanese, Dutch, New Zealand, Norwegian and Swedish citizens.

    Last Monday, March 9, the company reported that two people who had been on the Braemar were diagnosed with the coronavirus after returning home. Six people reporting flu-like symptoms on the ship were tested, and five cases were confirmed on Wednesday, four crew and one passenger, with another testing inconclusive (it's unclear how these tests were conducted or what kinds of tests are being used).

    The ship was refused permission to dock at Curaçao on Tuesday, or Barbados on Thursday and changed course to the Bahamas, the ship's flag state, with the captain hoping to allow passengers to disembark there.

    Before the ship arrived in the Caribbean, there were no confirmed cases in the area. The first cases weren't confirmed until two passengers who had disembarked tested positive back in the UK.

    The cruise line was unable to drop passengers on its Caribbean cruise in La Romana in the Dominican Republic on February 27 after a number of influenza-like cases on board were reported.

    Instead, it made an unscheduled stop in St. Maarten on March 2 to allow passengers to disembark and take the cruise's charter flights back to the UK. New passengers boarded and the vessel set sail for Jamaica as it continued to the Western Caribbean and Central America.

    It was due to continue to Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, Curacao, and reach Barbados on March 12.

    The captain told passengers in an announcement that he was in talks with local authorities and asked passengers to "bear with me in this incredibly frustrating time, where rumor is plentiful and facts are in short supply."

    But the Bahamas has promised nothing beyond humanitarian assistance.

    It's just the latest nightmare at sea as cruise line stocks get hammered.

    [Mar 15, 2020] Those that bent the curve enough to keep their health care providers from being overwhelmed and who have enough tests administered to get a better count of infections, seem to be slightly less than 1% mortality.

    Mar 15, 2020 | angrybearblog.com
    1. JaneE , March 15, 2020 3:40 pm

      There is a wide divergence in the death rates between countries. Those that bent the curve enough to keep their health care providers from being overwhelmed and who have enough tests administered to get a better count of infections, seem to be slightly less than 1% mortality. Those with overwhelmed systems and hospitals are 3 or 4% or higher. That is still close to 10 times the flu at best. If we do get to the "overwhelmed" category, the death rate may go much much higher.

    [Mar 15, 2020] According to Amazon's rankings, Camus' The Plague is now #7 in the Self-Help Psychology Humor category, which is an irony Camus himself probably couldn't have gotten away with

    Mar 15, 2020 | www.counterpunch.org

    "What on earth prompted you to take a hand in this, doctor?"

    "I don't know. My my code of morals, perhaps."

    "Your code of morals. What code, if I may ask?"

    "Comprehension."

    [Mar 14, 2020] Coronavirus Brand new problem, same old reaction

    Mar 14, 2020 | off-guardian.org

    In another article, Foreign Policy also suggests the pandemic should be a reason to suspend the presidential election campaigning in the US. Opening the article with the foreboding line:

    It's time to ask, during a time of plague, whether -- and if so, in what form -- democracy can continue as usual.

    Which means no big crowds chanting Bernie's name, no televised debates where Biden forgets where he is, and no lines of voters being turned away from the democrat primaries over "misunderstandings".

    The article even dances around the idea of postponing the vote itself. Voting "during a time of plague" can have an impact on the turnout and result, Laurie Garrett argues. She stops short of that, but only because "Orange Man Bad". If it was Hillary in the White House, not Trump, the media would already have vociferously called for a postponement of the election altogether.

    As it is, they make do with this:

    Actual voting can, and should, proceed with heavy emphasis on mailed ballots .

    George Mc ,

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51889957

    As of 14/3/20 at 10.30 pm:

    Total tested: 37,746
    Total tested positive: 1,140
    Infected as a percentage: 3%
    Total deaths: 21
    Mortality rate: 1.8%
    Deaths as a percentage of all tested: 0.06%

    Is this a catastrophe? Well I did a bit of extrapolating and found that, projected onto the UK population (given as 66.44 million), the total number of deaths we could expect would be just under 40,000. Sounds impressive – until you look at the 21 victims and consider the age groupings:

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-what-we-know-about-the-uk-victims-11957568

    2 deaths with no further information.
    1 in the 70s and 4 in the 80s

    All the other deaths are listed as having other conditions:

    3 in 60s
    4 in 70s
    4 in 80s
    1 in 90s
    1 described as "elderly"
    1 described as "older" (This is the one in Scotland.)

    Summary: of the 21 deaths, 19 were over 60 and 14 of these definitely had other conditions.

    [Mar 14, 2020] Stunning toilet paper feeding frenzy caught on camera - YouTube

    Mar 14, 2020 | www.youtube.com

    Mar 9, 2020

    CCTV footage has captured the moment toilet paper-hungry Australians caused unrest at an Aldi store where a crowd of shoppers can be seen rushing down an aisle to claim the scarce commodity before it was all taken.


    omino jaku , 4 days ago

    The coronavirus is worried about catching these fools

    rer1967 , 1 day ago

    LOL, they're acting as if toilet paper is the cure.

    I010110 1o01o1 , 1 day ago (edited)

    lol They're acting like it's Black Friday at an Apple or Wal-Mart store's tv section.

    Jacinta Tate , 4 days ago (edited)

    I honestly never thought this would happen in my own country and I feel disgusted by this behavior. 3 people over the ages of 70 have died in the entire nation or 30 million people. Stop being selfish and ridiculous. This is not they end of the world and if citizens went about their shopping as per normal there would be plenty for all. I have 4 rolls in my cupboard at home and no idea where to buy more but I'll do the best with what I've got. its worrying me that people in a 1st world nation have fallen to these lows.

    satos1 , 4 days ago (edited)

    Today's society would walk straight over you if given half a chance. Very sad how we all have become.

    Curtis C , 3 days ago

    The only reason there is a shortage here in America is because of the media. They have everyone so panicked that if one person sneezes 9 others shit their pants in fear.

    James R , 1 day ago

    The joke's on them! The Coronavirus will have passed by the time they get through the checkout at Aldi.

    Carnage , 2 days ago

    Dont Worry Fools Coronavirus Don't Want To Infect An Idiot

    [Mar 14, 2020] We are forced to watch disaster porn

    Mar 14, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Jeff Harrison , Mar 14 2020 5:02 utc | 203

    Sorry. Hysteria. China which was ground zero for this particular flavor of a respiratory virus only had about 81,000 cases (so far) out of a population of how many billions? These projections that posit that half the US population will become infected are wildly excessive. And, yes, the fatality rate for COVID 19 is larger than the seasonal flu, it's larger than a small number which is, itself, a small number. You guys have been watching too much disaster porn.

    [Mar 14, 2020] A little inspirational pep talk -- Coronavirus: Survival of the Richest! by Jonathan Pie

    Highly recommended!
    Mar 14, 2020 | off-guardian.org

    George Mc This is a little inspirational pep talk about what to do with "self-isolation":


    The Hurricane , 1 day ago

    AS George Carlin said: It's called the American dream... because you have to be asleep to believe it.

    mme.lolabelle , 1 day ago

    To quote that great 21st century social commentary, ‘Shrek’, “Some of you may die, but it’s a sacrifice that I am willing to make.”

    Heikki Remes , 1 day ago

    "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it." -Agent K

    S.A.k SAK , 1 day ago

    Johnthan Pie as expected sharp insightful with a wicked cutting edge, but most importantly so on point with home truths. Well done good man, please keep them coming we need you more than ever 😁

    A B , 1 day ago

    Exactly, more bankruptcies than deaths. Zero hours contracts are terrifying. Help others. Be kind.

    Rah Collier , 1 day ago

    Plagues can be instigators of social change. Buckle up, everyone.

    Kaya Bingham , 1 day ago

    Excellent summary of the world's economical facade. All plastic and lie...

    Kenny Evans , 1 day ago

    "Get ill, go bankrupt" USA in a nutshell.

    WeControlEverything YouSeeAndHear , 1 day ago div tabindex="0" class="comment-renderer

    -text" role="article"> Well done JP, a brilliant summation as always :) Particularly poignant: "The only people we can look to for help are our leaders, who we would hope, are looking to scientists & experts to guide them."

    [Mar 14, 2020] Honest Government Ad

    Highly recommended!
    This is a really brilliant satire !!! Another outstanding work. "Spread the message, not the virus" and "...when they threaten the Stock Market." Priceless
    What makes a nation civilized is not how it acts in times of peace but how it chooses to conduct itself in moments of crisis. Hoarding stuff for months selfishly and fighting people in markets like animals is not how civilized societies deal with crisis.
    Notable quotes:
    "... Toilet paper is such a weird thing to be panic-buying... ..."
    "... "Global emergencies- when they threaten the stock market" So sad but true ..."
    "... "When they threaten the stock market." Boom. ..."
    "... I love the term "local government franchise". sounds pretty synonymous to a government run by crooks and impotent political dynasties. ..."
    "... I like how this started off completely taking the mick, but then turned, depressingly, into one of the most sensible summaries of our current situation. (I mean it's depressing that comedians seem to be better at communicating than our glorious leaders). ..."
    "... "Italians are freaking out the Chinese are hiding out" That was just so freaking hilarious oh my God I love this channel ..."
    Mar 14, 2020 | youtu.be

    Amarka

    Honest Government Ad (govern/rule – ment/mind) | Coronavirus: Flatten The Curve

    https://www.youtube.com/embed/Hks6Nq7g6P4?version=3&rel=1&fs=1&autohide=2&showsearch=0&showinfo=1&iv_load_policy=1&wmode=transparent Vote Up 1 0 Vote Down Reply Mar 14, 2020 10:05 PM


    John Gardner , 23 hours ago

    Toilet paper is such a weird thing to be panic-buying...

    foo barf , 23 hours ago

    But my sphincter is far too important to let a Murdoch publication near it

    JNB Brothers , 23 hours ago

    "Global emergencies- when they threaten the stock market" So sad but tru (climate change, equal rights etc)

    John Gardner , 23 hours ago

    Toilet paper is such a weird thing to be panic-buying...

    foo barf , 23 hours ago

    But my sphincter is far too important to let a Murdoch publication near it

    JNB Brothers , 23 hours ago

    "Global emergencies- when they threaten the stock market" So sad but true (climate change, equal rights etc)

    Tommy Knocker , 23 hours ago (edited)

    Now flying off the shelves near you: New Rupert Murdock toilet paper, as hard on your ass it is on the eyes!!!

    Aurum TheBrave , 23 hours ago

    "When they threaten the stock market." Boom.

    Charliemagne Crabajales , 19 hours ago

    I love the term "local government franchise". sounds pretty synonymous to a government run by crooks and impotent political dynasties.

    George Caplin , 20 hours ago

    I like how this started off completely taking the mick, but then turned, depressingly, into one of the most sensible summaries of our current situation. (I mean it's depressing that comedians seem to be better at communicating than our glorious leaders).

    Ison Willis , 23 hours ago

    If it gets not banned, its part of the sh*show.

    Alexandru Popescu , 23 hours ago

    Lucy's heavenly voice and impeccable pronunciation – which transform the coarse language into music to our ears – perfectly convey the urgent educational message.

    Saturn666 , 23 hours ago

    Kind of tragic when a comedy channel like this is more informative than governments.

    denthy k , 23 hours ago

    Trump: If I'm not tested, I'm not infected.

    tuseroni , 20 hours ago

    "i dont take responsibility at all" he did say that. not sure if he is exposed to the corona virus, but he is clearly allergic to responsibility

    resourcedragon , 23 hours ago

    Thank you for the "flatten the curve" message. To be honest, I had wondered whether delaying the inevitable was the way to go - especially in view of the fact that there are going to be, indeed, already have been deaths that are due to knock-on effects from the corona virus.

    Avatar WarMech , 19 hours ago

    "Italians are freaking out the Chinese are hiding out" That was just so freaking hilarious oh my God I love this channel

    [Mar 14, 2020] Media hysteria does not correlates with actual development of the epidemic on board of cruise ships: the most cruel natural experiment possible

    Mar 14, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Guidoamm , Mar 14 2020 5:01 utc | 202

    I would like someone to explain why there have been so few infections and even fewer fatalities on board the cruise ships.

    We have 9000 (nine thousand) people, the majority of whom are well over the age of 50, aboard 3 ships that have lived at very close quarters, in a confined environment where Covid19 had been detected.

    Where are the infections and where are the dead? By my last count, 6 elderly passengers from the Diamond Princess passed away of complications related to Covid19. It is now over 6 weeks since that incident has taken place. In California, so far, 1 former passenger from the Grand Princess has succumbed and there seems to be 29 infected people that are now under observation or in care.

    What am I missing?

    [Mar 14, 2020] H. L. Mencken about coronarovirus epidemic

    Notable quotes:
    "... The "worst case scenario" doesn't look very credible. If less than 20% of the people on a cruise ship - trapped for multiple weeks - contracted nCOV, the notion that 2/3rds of Americans will seems far too high. ..."
    "... And just for extra fun: The number of hospital beds in the US declined 5% from 2005 to 2017 ..."
    "... The explosion of hate and blame and fear flying around online with regard to this pandemic is more than alarming and ultimately useless and damaging. In a way it scares me more than the flu itself at the moment because of the implications of how it will hinder our ability to cooperate and deal with this. ..."
    Mar 13, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Greenbean950 , Mar 13 2020 14:15 utc | 5

    The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary.

    H. L. Mencken

    Paul Bogdanich , Mar 13 2020 15:15 utc | 17

    Why are you stoking this irrational panic? Quoting the New York Times. What's the matter with you? I find it reassuring that high profile figures here and there have caught the COVID-19 flu. Madamm Trudeau, President Bolsinaro, etc. When they're back at their regular public duties in a week or so maybe it will sink into peoples thick skulls what a bunch of scardey cat ninnies the politicians are. The panic is doing more damage than the virus. IMHO. Time will tell.
    c1ue , Mar 13 2020 15:16 utc | 18
    The "worst case scenario" doesn't look very credible. If less than 20% of the people on a cruise ship - trapped for multiple weeks - contracted nCOV, the notion that 2/3rds of Americans will seems far too high.

    However, a lockdown has its own issues:

    1. Reportedly 100,000 children in New York will starve if they can't go to school and get fed. Is this going to be a lot different elsewhere?
    2. What about the salaries, vs. the debts, for the hourly workers that won't be able to work in a lockdown situation? A large percentage of Americans are extremely financially precarious.
    3. Then there's the US health care system. Even disregarding the secondary economic/social effects noted above - how will $500-$3000 nCOV testing impact people? Much less the cost of hospitalizations?

    And just for extra fun: The number of hospital beds in the US declined 5% from 2005 to 2017: source

    The number of hospital beds is rising in prosperous zip codes and falling everywhere else. The amount of hospital beds fell by five percent nationally between 2006 and 2017. Over the same time period, the number of beds increased by 10 percent in prosperous zip codes, which were the only group to see an increase. Prosperous zip codes tend to be growing quickly: The number of residents of prosperous zip codes increased by an estimated 20 percent over the study period, faster than the population of any other quintile. Combined with their initially low bed-counts, the rise in hospital beds in prosperous communities may reflect a rebalancing in the landscape of beds towards the locations where more and more Americans live.
    So while richer areas got more hospital beds, the number don't reflect the population increase. The other areas are just SOL.
    Joanne Leon , Mar 13 2020 15:17 utc | 19
    The explosion of hate and blame and fear flying around online with regard to this pandemic is more than alarming and ultimately useless and damaging. In a way it scares me more than the flu itself at the moment because of the implications of how it will hinder our ability to cooperate and deal with this.

    The panic has set in, to some extent, but people are adjusting. There is a hyper focus on the federal government and opportunistic political attacks with the goal of ruining the current administration in the lead up to 2020 elections (an administration already paranoid from 3+ years of being targeted to an extent I've never seen in my life). That much is really obvious if you can look at things rationally, even if, like me, you're opposed to this administration ideologically, politically and in almost every other way. I think that's beyond reckless and extremely dangerous at a time like this, but my opinion won't change much in a political environment that has been so carefully manipulated to a level of toxicity that is maybe unprecedented. Maybe people will get their priorities straight when/if things get really rough. Remains to be seen.

    What the media and others aren't paying attention to at all to local and state authorities who have been mobilizing. We don't rely on the federal government for everything. We have extensive town, city, county and state infrastructures that handle most things in daily life. The states themselves vary but every one has an extensive infrastructure.

    The testing issue is clearly a major league failure. How important is it compared to mobilizing? It's important because information is important for supply networks and decision making. But is it more important in the short term than getting the population to prepare at home, isolate to varying extents, to be informed about symptoms etc and be able to ride this out as well as possible until the bigger, higher level infrastructure catches up?

    And that is happening here in the US, at least in my state of NJ (bumped up against/integrated with 2 of the biggest cities in the country). There is massive mobilization. Colleges going into spring break right now and switching to online instruction after spring break, large events canceled, people working from home when possible, state government hotlines and online reporting in place, and tons of other things. This is anecdotal but my son told me today that friends who work in electronics stores, restaurants will be paid for furloughs, which surprised me. He's a student with a part time restaurant job and no shut down or word of furlough pay as yet.

    At a recent small biz related gathering - people already adopted modified non-handshakes on their own. Maybe seems a little silly but shows how quickly people adapt in real world regardless of the hate and panic flying around in MSM and social media. That doesn't get us more hospital beds and respirators but it's important at the prevention end of things. As for possible need for rapid expansion of medical facilities, I guess we'll find out soon if the trillions we spend on military/national guard can benefit people at home if we hit that crisis point. Supposedly, this type of logistics is one of their strengths.

    [Mar 14, 2020] Of the 3500 people trapped on the first cruise ship - less than 20% got it. You can't get a better infection setup than having people breathing the same air with infected people, with another 1000 service people sharing a huge dorm with no walls and bringing food to everyone

    Mar 14, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    c1ue , Mar 14 2020 0:21 utc | 161

    @John Dowser #130

    Zero credibility numbers.

    Of the 3500 people trapped on the first cruise ship - less than 20% got it. You can't get a better infection setup than having people breathing the same air with infected people, with another 1000 service people sharing a huge dorm with no walls and bringing food to everyone.

    So 20% is very likely the worst case in 1 year.

    1% of that is still bad, but again, a function of timing. Are they evenly spread out over, say, 6 week time frames? Then its bad but doable.

    If they're getting it all in the same quarter, then it is really bad.

    But that's why states are ordering lockdowns: pro and college sports cancelled, music/entertainment cancelled, conferences etc.

    c1ue , Mar 14 2020 0:26 utc | 163

    @conspiracy theorists: try and use some critical thinking.

    We have had a number of novel viruses break out in the recent past: Ebola, swine flu, SARS, MERS among the major ones.

    Why is it so surprising that we finally got one that happens to be significantly transmissible (unlike SARS), deadly but not too deadly (unlike Ebola) and situated in a region where people travel to/from a lot (unlike MERS)?

    Secondly, the genetic sequencing is quite advanced and in the hands of a lot of different people. There is a 96% match between Wuhan bat coronavirus and nCOV; 99% match between pangolin coronavirus and nCOV. Secondly, viruses in general mutate because they are mostly really shitty in error correcting when replicating - so we know they will change over time.

    The reality is that governments and scientists simply do not have the capabilities to design a virus to this specification - at least, not yet.

    [Mar 14, 2020] All viruses mostly kill elderly, all eventually burn out and reappear in a less virulent form. I do not see how COVID-19 is different from that.

    Mar 14, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Pft says: Show Comment March 13, 2020 at 5:07 am GMT 500 Words Actually, this is so wrong.

    AK: Comment is plagiarized (h/t utu). Go to the source: https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html

    [Hide MORE]

    We dont actually know the CFR for covid-19 or influenza. Few people are tested for influenza. Cdc uses models. Cdc says between about 70 percent and 85 percent of seasonal flu-related deaths have occurred in people 65 years and older. A typical year has 30,000 flu deaths so thats 20,000 -25,000 deaths in elderly per year and thats with vaccination.

    The elderly with severe pneumonia from flu requiring a hospital stay have a 20% fatality rate

    The true case fatality rate, known as CFR, of this virus is likely to be far lower than current reports suggest. Even some lower estimates, such as the 1 percent death rate recently mentioned by the directors of the National Institutes of Health and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, likely substantially overstate the case.

    We shouldn't be surprised that the numbers are inflated. In past epidemics, initial CFRs were also exaggerated. For example, in the 2009 H1N1 pandemic some early estimates of 12% CFR, declined to 1.28 percent in the end (probably overstated since cdc recommended no testing by summer of 2009 and used models ). In Wuhan, the CFR was more than 4 percent. As the virus spread to other parts of Hubei, the number fell to 2 percent. As it spread through China, the reported CFR dropped further, to 0.2 to 0.4 percent. As testing begins to include more asymptomatic and mild cases, more realistic numbers are starting to surface. John Hopkins University published a report suggesting actual cases in Hubei were an order of magnitude higher since they did few testing for 2 months, testing only serious/cases. That brings the cfr down in hubei to 0.3% like the rest of China which is heavily polluted with most of the male population smoking

    In China, 9 million people die per year, which comes out to 25,000 people every single day, or around 1.5 million people over the past two months alone. Many of these deaths results from diseases like emphysema/COPD, lower respiratory infections, and cancers of the lung and airway whose symptoms are clinically indistinguishable from the nonspecific symptoms seen in severe COVID-19 cases. During the peak of the outbreak in China in January and early February, around 25 patients per day were dying with SARS-CoV-2. Most were older patients in whom the chronic diseases listed above are prevalent.

    This is where the Diamond Princess data provides important insight. Of the 3,711 people on board, at least 705 have tested positive for the virus . Of those, more than half are asymptomatic, while very few asymptomatic people were tested in China. With flu we know 16% of those infected are asymptomatic. Some estimates put it as high as 60%. Especially if you use pcr tests which dont tell you anything about if thr RNA fragments were from currently infectious particles. On the Diamond Princess, 7 deaths have occurred among the passengers, constituting a case fatality rate of 1% percent. 0.2% of the ships passengers died. All of the passengers were elderly while the younger crew members /passengers were much better off. Its not unknown what percentage of passengers were elderly but lets assume 25%. That gives a fatality rate among the elderly of 0.8%. Same as flu.

    I rest my case.

    utu , says: Show Comment March 13, 2020 at 6:30 am GMT

    @Anonymous (n) 60,000 people die every month in Italy. Many of them old. Now we have 1,000 reported dead due to the Covid-19. Most of them old. Many of them would have died anyway from some cold or flu that would further aggravate their poor state of health. This year Covid-19 got there first.

    [Mar 13, 2020] Structure of high risk population in Italy

    Mar 13, 2020 | www.thelancet.com

    https://www.thelancet.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620306279.pdf

    The mean age of those who died in Italy was 81 years and more than two-thirds of these patients had diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, or cancer, or were former smokers.

    Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80–89 years, 32·4% were aged 70–79 years, 8·4% were aged 60–69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50–59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%). The male to female ratio is 80% to 20% with an older median age for women (83·4 years for women vs 79·9 years for men).

    [Mar 13, 2020] Age mortality profile for Italian pacients

    Mar 13, 2020 | www.unz.com

    utu , says: Show Comment March 13, 2020 at 2:17 pm GMT

    @Daniel Chieh Few quotes from

    https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2930627-9

    " the percentage of patients admitted to intensive care units reported daily in Italy, from March 1, up until March 11, was consistently between 9% and 11% of patients who were actively infected."

    "If this trend continues for 1 more week, there will be 30 000 infected patients. Intensive care units will then be at maximum capacity; up to 4000 hospital beds will be needed by mid-April, 2020."

    "Considering that the number of available beds in intensive care units in Italy is close to 5200, and assuming that half of these beds can be used for patients with COVID-19, the system will be at maximum capacity, according to this prediction, by March 14, 2020."

    " we can assume that we will need approximately 4000 beds in intensive care units during the worst period of infection, which is expected to occur in about 4 weeks from March 11. This is challenging for Italy, as there are now just over 5200 intensive care beds in total. "

    "We predict that if the exponential trend continues for the next few days, more than 2500 hospital beds for patients in intensive care units will be needed in only 1 week to treat ARDS caused by SARS-CoV-2-pneumonia in Italy."

    And age mortality profile

    "Of the patients who died, 42·2% were aged 80–89 years, 32·4% were aged 70–79 years, 8·4% were aged 60–69 years, and 2·8% were aged 50–59 years (those aged >90 years made up 14·1%). The male to female ratio is 80% to 20% with an older median age for women (83·4 years for women vs 79·9 years for men)."

    [Mar 13, 2020] The academic consensus for mortality is currently around 0.3-1% (WHO)

    Mar 13, 2020 | www.unz.com

    LondonBob , says: Show Comment March 13, 2020 at 8:58 am GMT

    Something a little more positive from the China perspective

    We are increasing our understanding of this disease. It is clearly very infectious, at least in some circumstances. As we have explained this means that the case severity is likely to be lower than the crude fatality rates in many media reports. We have explained the dilemma of mortality early in epidemics here. The academic consensus for mortality is currently around 0.3-1% (WHO). It could be higher but it could be lower if blood testing eventually confirms more widespread, mild disease. The hospital mortality over the age of 80 years is 15%. Another way of looking at this data is that of every 100 people over the age of 80 who contract COVID-19 and become ill enough to go to hospital. 85% make a full recovery.

    [Mar 13, 2020] Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis called Merkel's remark "unhelpful" and said it could cause panic

    Mar 13, 2020 | www.theamericanconservative.com

    Dr. Brian Monahan, attending physician of Congress, told a closed-door meeting of Senate staffers this week that 70 million to 150 million Americans -- a third of the nation -- could contract the coronavirus. Dr. Anthony Fauci testified that the mortality rate for COVID-19 will likely run near 1 percent.

    Translation: between 750,000 and 1.1 million Americans may die of this disease before it runs its course. The latter figure is equal to all the U.S. dead in World War II and on both sides in the Civil War.

    Chancellor Angela Merkel warns that 70 percent of Germany's population -- 58 million people -- could contract the coronavirus. If she is right, and Fauci's mortality rate holds for her country, that could mean more than half a million dead Germans.

    Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis called Merkel's remark "unhelpful" and said it could cause panic. But Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch seemed to support Merkel, saying between 40 percent and 70 percent of the world's population could become infected.

    Again, if Fauci's 1 percent mortality rate and Lipsitch's estimate prove on target, between 3 billion and 5 billion people on earth will be infected, and 30 million to 50 million will die, a death toll greater than that of the Spanish Flu of 1918.

    There is, however, some contradictory news.

    China, with 81,000 cases, has noted a deceleration in new cases and South Korea appears to be gradually containing the spread of the virus.

    Yet Italy, with its large elderly population, may be a harbinger of what is to come in the West. As of Thursday, Italy had reported 12,000 cases and 827 deaths, a mortality rate of nearly 7 percent. This suggests that the unreported and undetected infections in Italy are far more numerous.

    In the U.S., the death toll at this writing is 40, a tiny fraction of the annual toll of the tens of thousands who die of the flu.

    But the problem is this: COVID-19 has not nearly run its course in the United States, while the reaction in society and the economy approaches what we might expect from a boiling national disaster.

    The stock market has plunged further and faster than it did in the Great Crash of 1929. Trillions of dollars in wealth have vanished. If Senator Bernie Sanders does not like "millionaires and billionaires," he should be pleased. There are fewer of them today than there were when he won the New Hampshire primary.

    What does the future hold?


    [Mar 13, 2020] Data about NYC epidemics are actually very encoraging

    Mar 13, 2020 | www.unz.com

    OscarWildeLoveChild , says: Show Comment March 13, 2020 at 12:21 pm GMT

    @Carlton Meyer I've been following a few doctors on Youtube, for about a month now (dispassionate, evidence-based docs), and their opinions vary on how serious this is.

    What I don't is, if this is as contagious as they say (and it does seem to be) and as life-threatening as they say, then given that there are several cases in NYC, why are we not already seeing thousands of deaths there- a city where millions are crammed together daily, many without good hygiene, many who have been for several weeks now, using public transportation. I don't get it. It would seem the effects of any virus that were as bad as they're saying, would already be reaching peak zombie level conditions in places like NYC, Chicago, Boston, SF and DC.

    Scratching my head.

    [Mar 13, 2020] Lifespan is not equal healthspan

    Mar 13, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Svevlad says: Show Comment March 13, 2020 at 12:19 pm GMT 200 Words But would a drop in life expectancy be a bad thing?

    Like the man on viriculture.com used to say, healthy life =/= long life. We work towards extending one's lifespan, yet we don't extend their "health span". We just extend the period when one is already falling apart. The older you are, the more meds you need, the more healthcare you need etc etc.

    So the longer the lifespan the bigger the load on healthcare and pension funds.

    The main problem is, that our economic and cultural systems are at this point, 90% biologically incompatible with us. A good chunk of our lives we study (especially so when you study something like medicine, i believe at this point it's for genuine masochists). By the time you get to a nice position in your career you're probably going to be older than 35. For good birth rates etc that's unnaceptable.

    So, the solution is to extend the "health-span". Preferably, you need to slow aging down at least by 10, maybe even 15 years, while keeping the overall lifespan the same. The current way is simply unsustainable

    [Mar 13, 2020] Like all the other viruses that have floated around over the years be this one is being hyped up

    Mar 13, 2020 | www.unz.com

    Calculator , says: Show Comment March 13, 2020 at 11:55 am GMT

    @Kratoklastes ...Like all the other viruses that have floated around over the years be this one is being hyped up.

    The hype works precisely because of your remark #3 but it will die a natural death after everyone makes their money and the public gets bored.

    I mean if just 1B people get a shot costing $50 that is a whole lot of Yuan. Store owners also appear to be sneaking that extra markup on soaps and disinfectants and toilet paper. Y2K also comes to mind and I am sure that Aids /HIV continues to kill more people annually than this virus ever will. In the meantime I caution all nose pickers to leave those buggers alone and not report any unusually large specimens. It will only skew the statistics and increase the panic.

    [Mar 13, 2020] MSM dirty dange around human mortality

    Mar 13, 2020 | www.unz.com

    utu , says: Show Comment March 13, 2020 at 6:30 am GMT

    @Anonymous (n)
    60,000 people die every month in Italy. Many of them old. Now we have 1,000 reported dead due to the Covid-19. Most of them old. Many of them would have died anyway from some cold or flu that would further aggravate their poor state of health. This year Covid-19 got there first.

    [Mar 13, 2020] Steve Bannon is just using inflammatory language throughout, to diss the CCP

    Mar 13, 2020 | thesaker.is

    Analyst on March 12, 2020 , · at 11:23 pm EST/EDT

    Dear Saker: I am a little confused here.

    You request that opinions should be limited to fact based
    but in the next sentence you state "The truth is that NONE OF US really knows for a fact what this virus can do, we are all guessing."

    well .whether fact based or speculative here are two alternate views>

    "My own view on the Coronavirus situation, is that I trust the Chinese Government to be doing all it can possibly do, to contain the epidemic.

    There are a lot of people there, living in close proximity

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlF0LcQO9Tg

    In that context, Steve Bannon is just using inflammatory language throughout, to diss the CCP

    I can well understand why the CCP will not allow any US personel anywhere near the patients, nor allow them to have access to any of the medical data.

    If Bannon is implying that the CCP has something to hide, then the CCP also has its own suspicions as to how this virus suddenly appeared

    A lot of stuff has in the past come out of Livermore Labs and in the UK from Porton Down, which "should not" be released I know of southern coastal cities in the UK being sprayed with viruses from the air in the 1950s – a deliberate programme supported by the UK government

    The CCP will also be fully aware of British activities within Syria and then there is the Skripal incident, a home-grown Boris the Buffoon manufactured crisis

    If one looks at UK and US official government behaviour towards Hong Kong, then one can easily surmise that there are attempts to find other means to destabilise China

    Just saying "

    Another view >

    "There was an interesting item on Facebook a few days back, claiming to be written by a Chinese military official, a staunch supporter of the communist party and the government, but a man 'with a conscience.'

    He claimed the virus was manufactured with a view to causing reduction of higher brain functions (i.e. lowering the IQ) and inducing docility into those who are protesting in Hong Kong.

    It was first tested, according to his narrative, more discreetly on rounded-up Uighurs in the prison camps, well away from anywhere likely to be observed, and everyone who was exposed, died. There was a massive clean-up and cover-up operation

    Realising it needed more work if it was to be deployed in HK, they did some further modifications and had intended to do a new test in Hubei, but this was pre-empted by a shoot-out near the meat market that has been mooted as the source of the outbreak. Someone, I'm not sure now who he reckoned it was, attempted to 'kidnap the bio weapon in order to grab the technology it represented, but the consignment was hit by a bullet and the virus escaped. Those in charge ensured there were no survivors as witnesses in that area.

    He further claimed that the mortality rate is actually 100% but that it has been put about that it is only 2% – this underplaying being with the complicity of the USA, Russia and the UK and presumably the EU, in order to forestall mass panic. He claimed only those wearing hazmat suits stand any chance, and that the pandemic will claim the lives of all but top officials who have recourse to protective measures. He said that the actual symptoms in the final stages are up to five days of agonising pain with internal organs haemorrhaging in a similar way to Ebola.

    Of course, the article was anonymously written, as he said his life and that of his family would be forfeit if he were to be identified. Which makes it a narrative that is easy to fake but impossible to completely refute. "

    [Mar 13, 2020] I do not think the corona virus outbreak was deliberate. The first thing that people crafty enough to unleash this sort of thing would think of is blowback

    Mar 13, 2020 | thesaker.is

    Patricia Ormsby on March 12, 2020 , · at 8:04 pm EST/EDT

    Like the Saker, I do not think the corona virus outbreak was deliberate. The first thing that people crafty enough to unleash this sort of thing would think of is blowback.

    Perhaps the depopulationists–but this is a really ineffective way of going about it.

    I do think, however, that it arose in a "laboratory" of tens of millions of human subjects all undergoing an enormous experiment. Please humor me a moment.

    If there were a deliberate element in all of this, it would be the hype and rush be the first to implement an untested technology about which dire warnings were already being sounded.

    ... ... ...

    AndyT on March 12, 2020 , · at 10:19 pm EST/EDT
    Virologists and epidemiologists have yet to discount that the coronavirus was a bio attack. This does NOT mean that it was an attack, merely that the possibility of a bio attack cannot be discounted. While there remains a lot of circumstantial and anecdotal "evidence" that this was an economic attack perpetrated by America against China, this does NOT prove conclusively that such an attack took place, nor does it prove that such an attack did not take place. There is an abstract submitted to ChinaXIV (a research website) that, although not yet peer reviewed, suggests that the virus dd NOT originate at the Wuhan Seafood Market and that it was introduced:

    http://www.chinaxiv.org/abs/202002.00033

    Any reference as to who introduced the coronavirus to the market is pure speculation at this juncture, although the circumstantial and anecdotal evidence could be construed as overwhelming against the US considering the timing, geographic location and proximity to the Wuhan Seafood Market of the US soldiers present for the International Military Games.

    I am not a virologist or epidemiologist (I am an engineer), however it is not completely out of the realms of possibility for a virus to make the transition from animal to human host; and the conditions in which animals are kept in Wuhan and surrounding areas is certainly not of the same standard as the West – both from the perspective of hygiene and humanitarian considerations. Another abstract that does looks into the origins of the virus states:

    "The genomic features described here may in part explain the infectiousness and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. Although genomic evidence does not support the idea that SARS-CoV-2 is a laboratory construct, it is currently impossible to prove or disprove the other theories of its origin described here, and it is unclear whether future data will help resolve this issue. Identifying the immediate non-human animal source and obtaining virus sequences from it would be the most definitive way of revealing virus origins."

    http://virological.org/t/the-proximal-origin-of-sars-cov-2/398

    Much mention has been made of the corona-virus in question (COVID-19) binding to the ACE-2 receptors found in the lungs and heart – most particularly in those of Asian heritage. It would not be outside the realms of science for this to be a logical target for the virus, given its geographic location, but the hypothesis of it being engineered to target a specific racial genotype is also not outside the realms of possibility.

    "Our findings indicated that no direct evidence was identified genetically supporting the existence of coronavirus S-protein binding-resistant ACE2 mutants in different populations (Fig. 1a). The data of variant distribution and AFs may contribute to the further investigations of ACE2, including its roles in acute lung injury and lung function12. The East Asian populations have much higher AFs in the eQTL variants associated with higher ACE2 expression in tissues (Fig. 1c), which may suggest different susceptibility or response to 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 from different populations under the similar conditions."

    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41421-020-0147-1

    I agree with Andrei's analysis that a bio-weapon is both unwieldy and difficult to control when used in a purely military application, but when used as an economic weapon, the possibility is mentioned in the odious The Project for a New American Century's (PNAC) report titled "Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century."

    "advanced forms of biological warfare that can 'target' specific genotypes may transform biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool."

    This does not prove that the tragedy unfolding out of Wuhan was a bio-weapon, but certainly demonstrates the possibility of intent. At this juncture, neither side of the argument can provide any proof, so the the hypothesis remains pure speculation. The Chinese government is not directly accusing the US of a bio attack, but it is extremely worrying that both the Russian and Chinese governments remain highly suspicious.

    [Mar 13, 2020] "CORONAVIRUSES HAVE ALWAYS INFECTED HUMANS, PANIC IS UNWARRANTED"

    the MSM news cycle is clearly a tool for disinformation and misdirection – propaganda is what has been engineered
    Mar 13, 2020 | thesaker.is

    Jorge L Borges on March 12, 2020 , · at 2:45 pm EST/EDT

    "CORONAVIRUSES HAVE ALWAYS INFECTED HUMANS, PANIC IS UNWARRANTED"
    Posted by agencycyta | Mar 9, 2020 | Science , Featured , Health | 0 |

    "Coronaviruses have always infected humans, panic is unwarranted"
    According to an Argentine virologist in France, Pablo Goldschmidt, there is no evidence to indicate that the fatality or morbidity of COVID-19 is superior to that caused by influenza viruses or the common cold.

    (CyTA-Leloir Foundation Agency) -. For the virologist and infectious disease specialist Pablo Goldschmidt, the panic surrounding the strain of coronavirus identified in China (COVID-19) is as unwarranted as the one created in 2003 with severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS). ) or in 2009 with the influenza A (H1N1) virus.

    "The ill-founded opinions expressed by international experts, replicated by the media and social networks repeat the unnecessary panic that we have previously experienced. The coronavirus identified in China in 2019 causes neither more nor less than a strong cold or flu, with no difference until today with the cold or flu as we know it, "says Professor Goldschmidt, also a biochemist, pharmacist and psychologist graduated from the UBA, volunteer for the World Health Organization (WHO), former praticien hospitalier of the public hospitals in Paris and author of the book "People and microbes, invisible beings with whom we live and make us sick" (2019).

    The Argentine specialist lives more than four decades in Europe. At the Faculty of Medicine of the hospital center de la Pitié-Salpetrière in Paris, he obtained diplomas in pharmacokinetics, clinical pharmacology, neuro-psychopharmacology and pharmacology of antimicrobials. At the Université Pierre et Marie Curie Paris VI he received a doctorate in molecular pharmacology. The theoretical and practical training of the Paris Curie and Pasteur Institutes also concluded with degrees in fundamental virology and molecular biology. As a volunteer at the WHO, he integrates humanitarian missions in Guinea Conakry, Bissau, Pakistan, Ukraine, Cameroon, Mali and the Chad border with Nigeria. And it aspires to obtain from the Argentine State a mandate to exercise the right to speak before the international organization.

    In dialogue with the CyTA-Leloir Agency, Goldschmidt expresses its tension in the face of the global terror generated by the quality of information that is disseminated about the new coronavirus and considers it necessary that the data that is propagated be placed in the geographical and social context. "You can't create hysteria on the entire planet," he says.

    -Which viruses are considered responsible for respiratory diseases?

    Viral respiratory conditions are numerous and are caused by several viral families and species, among which the respiratory syncytial virus (especially in infants), influenza (influenza), human metapneumoviruses, adenoviruses, rhinoviruses, and several coronaviruses, already described years ago. It is striking that earlier this year global health alerts have been triggered as a result of infections by a coronavirus detected in China, COVID-19, knowing that each year there are 3 million newborns who die in the world of pneumonia and 50,000 adults in the United States for the same cause, without alarms being issued.

    – The fact that it is transmitted by saliva or by cough increased the fear of the population?

    Many microorganisms are transmitted by this route in humans. The cold, transmitted by saliva and cough, is caused by more than 150 rhinoviruses. Ten million people were infected by saliva and cough with the tuberculosis agent in 2018, of which 1 million were children and 205 thousand died. The same happened with bacterial meningitis, transmitted by saliva, which affected more than a million people in a year. Measles is also transmitted by saliva, hence the urgency to protect the population with vaccines.

    -You. Do you consider the international alerts launched due to the coronavirus to be exaggerated?

    Our planet is the victim of a new sociological phenomenon, scientific-media harassment, triggered by experts only on the basis of laboratory molecular diagnostic analysis results. Communiqués issued from China and Geneva were replicated, without being confronted from a critical point of view and, above all, without stressing that coronaviruses have always infected humans and always caused diarrhea and what people call a banal cold or common cold. Absurd forecasts were extrapolated, as in 2009 with the H1N1 influenza virus.

    And the risk of complications?

    A cold can present as a benign, self-limiting disease; but it is known that all respiratory diseases, however banal they may be considered, can severely affect the frailized people, people with cardiocirculatory problems over 65 years, people with metabolic disorders, immunosuppressed, transplanted and, above all , to poorly fed people without shelter, and to those who do not have access to competent health teams that provide them with effective medicines. This situation, clearly revealed for so many other diseases, is repeated in all infections and COVID-19 is no exception.

    Why does each individual become infected and react differently to viral infections?

    The first step for a virus to infect a person depends on the virus's ability to recognize "locks" or proteins on the surface of cells in certain organs, not all. Once it attaches to its lock, it can penetrate the cell and put all the cellular machinery of the infected subject at its service to replicate itself. It has been determined that there are individuals with many "locks", others with few and others with easier "locks" to open, which is determined by the genes. On the other hand, there is a defensive apparatus of proteins encoded in DNA that is known by the name of "reactoma". In short, all humans are unique living beings against microbial aggression and against the malignant transformations of our tissues. Therefore, in certain individuals,

    Is the coronavirus detected in China a new agent?

    Those who launched the international alerts did not take into account data that shows whether this virus or other similar viruses circulated in previous years. Or if people who were already exposed to other coronavirus variants have partial or total protection against the 2019 strain.

    -Why do you not accept the extrapolation from one country to the other of the forecasts issued by international agencies?

    First, it is appropriate to compare the mortality and morbidity data with the number of positive cases (those confirmed by the laboratory in relation to the number of severe cases or the number of deceased persons). The first thing that emerges from the data, beyond the biological criteria referring to the individual capacity to get sick and defend against viral aggression, are doubts regarding the figures, if it is not considered that the affected people did or did not have access to competent and equipped health, and if they received timely treatments with adequate and bioequivalent drugs.

    – Would these factors contribute to explain the differences in mortality and morbidity between countries?

    If there is no biological justification for individual predisposition, the difference could be due to the quality of the medical institutions, the reasons that caused the time to pass before the affected people go to health centers, or the quality of the training of medical centers and the availability of resources to treat acute respiratory diseases. We must impose moderation and use concrete data. There is no evidence to show that the 2019 coronavirus is more lethal than respiratory adenoviruses, influenza viruses, coronaviruses from previous years, or rhinoviruses responsible for the common cold.

    [Mar 13, 2020] Trump's Coronavirus Address, Blooper Reel Included The Daily Show - YouTube

    Mar 13, 2020 | www.youtube.com

    https://youtu.be/BWO6i8cH8SA


    Dan L , 4 hours ago (edited)

    "As calming as a firecracker dropped into a bag of cocaine" lmao I lost it there.. Hilariously accurate.

    berlineczka , 4 hours ago

    Fun fact: the European Union actually has no authority over health issues whatsoever. This is a strict Member State prerogative. The countries can coordinate voluntarily (which is what is currently arranged by the European Commission, but since there is no precedence it takes time) - but there was no way to make any decision about that in Brussels.

    KingM , 5 hours ago (edited)

    Greetings from Europe. In these hard times I'd like to thank Trump for providing such gold comedy material from just being a moron and reminding us all that it could always be worse.

    [Mar 08, 2020] WHO should have told governments that cruises should be cancelled and people air-lifted, no?

    Mar 08, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    Mina , Mar 7 2020 9:43 utc | 113

    What happens when you put 2000-7000 air-heads on a boat? I mean... since the case of the cruise that ended up docked near Japan and seem to have been responsible for all or most cases there (a medic, more specifically, after he had to go on board and noticed no one respected the rules... which one can understand) WHO should have told governments that cruises should be cancelled and people air-lifted, no?

    Utah's first coronavirus patient was only told about cruise ship outbreak after they got home
    The first patient to be diagnosed with coronavirus in Utah didn't know that there had been an outbreak among their fellow Grand Princess cruise ship passengers until they returned home.

    The Utah Department of Health said in an earlier news release that the resident had contracted the coronavirus while onboard the Grand Princess, which is anchored off the coast of California under quarantine.

    Utah state officials said that the cruise line informed the patient of the outbreak after they got home, and then the passenger went to a clinic to be checked.

    State epidemiologist Angela Dunn said there were other Utah residents on the cruise, and they are reaching out to those passengers to encourage them to watch for potential symptoms.

    People who live with the confirmed patient are also being tested for the coronavirus, and they are looking for other people who were in close contact.

    [Mar 08, 2020] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diamond_Princess_(ship)

    Mar 08, 2020 | en.wikipedia.org


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Princess
    "Grand Princess was the setting for a task in the second series of the UK version of the reality TV show The Apprentice."
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Princess_Cruises
    "On August 26, 2013, the crew of Caribbean Princess deliberately discharged 4,227 gallons of oil-contaminated waste off the southern coast of England"
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carnival_Corporation_%26_plc
    "In 2002 the Carnival Corporation pleaded guilty in United States District Court in Miami to criminal charges related to falsifying records of the oil-contaminated bilge water that six of its ships dumped into the sea from 1996 through 2001"

    Posted by: Mina | Mar 7 2020 16:08 utc | 142

    Mina @ 142:

    Carnival Cruises, owner of the Diamond Princess and the Grand Princess, is itself owned by Ted Arison. The Arisons are one of a small number of wealthy families and individuals in Israel who own roughly 60% of Israel's wealth.

    One doubts very much that the crew on the Grand Princess, most of whom are recruited from poor countries and who are underpaid for the work they normally do, have been properly trained in hygienic procedures or are even being supervised or encouraged to observe such procedures as they continue to deliver food to passengers stuck in their cabins.

    Any pathogens the crew collect on their way while serving the food (even if sealed) will transfer from one passenger to the next if the crew don't change or disinfect their gloves between deliveries.

    Posted by: Jen | Mar 7 2020 19:46 utc | 160

    Jen
    Indeed I found out that his name appears in the Carnival entry (not in the other entries of course). Someone I doubt he owns 100%. It seems like a royal business I would say... Carnival seems to have many partnership, how exactly does that work?

    Posted by: Mina | Mar 7 2020 20:47 utc | 163

    [Mar 08, 2020] Mortality for COVIL-19 is exaggerated. As long as not a significant number of all people in a certain area are tested, regardless of whether they show symptoms or not, no one can tell the real death rate.

    Mar 08, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    c1ue , Mar 6 2020 19:01 utc | 2

    I saw a posting on Propublica that made an important point: death rates are skewed early during an outbreak because deaths are solid markers (numerator) but number of infected known is certainly a subset of actual people who have the disease - particularly when testing isn't available and common.
    Also, early during an outbreak, the known infected tend to be those that have serious cases such that they end up in the hospital - so that also skews numbers.

    Cemi , Mar 6 2020 19:11 utc | 3

    If there is a significant number of symptomless infections the real (death rate) number will be even lower.

    That's the point. As long as not a significant number of all people in a certain area are tested, regardless of whether they show symptoms or not, no one can tell the real death rate. No one knows the number of symptomfree infectants.

    [Mar 08, 2020] The average age of deceased and positive patients in Covid-2019 in Italy is 81 years, mostly men. Neoliberal MSM instigate panic

    Mar 08, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    KamNam , Mar 7 2020 0:23 utc | 58

    Snip:
    The average age of deceased and positive patients in Covid-2019 is 81 years, mostly men. They, in more than two thirds of cases, have three or more pre-existing pathologies.
    This was confirmed by an analysis conducted by the Istituto Superiore di Sanità on 105 Italian patients who died up to 4 March.
    ...
    The average age of the patients examined is 81 years, about 20 years higher than that of the patients who contracted the infection. There are 28 women (26.7%).

    According to ISS data, 42.2% of the deaths are in the age group between 80 and 89 years. 32.4% were between 70 and 79, while 8.4% between 60 and 69, 2.8% between 50 and 59 and 14.1% over 90 years.
    end Snip:
    With luck Congress will be cleaned out of old world thinking, and replaced with new world thinking, (alas, same as old world thinking as it is controlled by the same thought group. One lives in hope of change for the better.


    KamNam , Mar 7 2020 0:42 utc | 61

    Another thought has just come to me. The age of the Media Barons all seem to be in the high to highest end of the fatality spectrum. Wonder if it is a coincidence we are having such a panic media attack, free on facts yet huge on speculation and shunting blame to all and sundry. Just a thought
    Joetv , Mar 7 2020 0:46 utc | 62
    Could it be ncov19 is no worse than the common cold, and what we are experiencing is the power of the media as it follows the order to create a world wide panic designed to prop up calls for a 1 world government. Deaths recorded are in the 80+ age range with at least 3 pre-existing conditions. The public can't get enough of this soap opera.
    KamNam , Mar 7 2020 1:03 utc | 66
    ATN Apli @22

    Raw figures for Italy and Iran at 14.00 GMT Friday Mar 6
    Italy Infected 4636 Deaths 197 Recovered 523
    Iran Infected 4747 Deaths 124 Recovered 913

    Remember Iran is under very strict Sanctions from USA et al. not helping their situation. Death rate is mostly those over 50 ramping up each decade over the 60 mark. (This get s rid of old farts like me easier and faster :-) ) As for Israel, take that with a pinch of salt they love to brag. I am not denying we live with truly evil people pulling strings for profit. Cheers

    [Mar 08, 2020] The real COVID-19 virus mortality rate might well be below one percent

    Mar 08, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org

    michaelj72 , Mar 7 2020 8:08 utc | 106

    fyi

    https://news.yahoo.com/coronavirus-spreads-one-study-predicts-101552222.html

    ....On Tuesday, the WHO noted that the global death rate for the novel coronavirus based on the latest figures was 3.4% -- higher than earlier figures of about 2%. The WHO's director-general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, said the new coronavirus was "a unique virus with unique characteristics.".....

    ....In the low-severity model -- or best-case scenario of the seven -- ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million.....


    Al , Mar 7 2020 8:36 utc | 107

    I like how without any testing or information MOA knew EVERYTHING and that now any take has to orbit the original assumptions.

    You don't have to speak with authority on everything.

    fairleft , Mar 7 2020 9:08 utc | 108
    michaelj72 @102:

    The 3.4% 'mortality rate' is simply the raw number: # of deaths / # of confirmed coronavirus cases. It's NOT comparable to the mortality rate for the common flu, which has long been established as .1%.

    The experts in your link (see below) state that the rate will go down as more people are tested.

    As far as I know, only China and perhaps South Korea now have reliable figures on how many have been infected with the virus. For example, the U.S. and Japan have been a tragic embarrassment when it comes to actually testing people.

    Business Insider:

    The death rate is likely to change further as more cases are confirmed, though experts predict that the percentage of deaths will decrease in the longer term since milder cases of COVID-19 are probably going undiagnosed.

    "There's another whole cohort that is either asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic," Anthony Fauci, the director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said at a briefing last month. "We're going to see a diminution in the overall death rate."

    [Mar 07, 2020] In systems that recirculate air coronavirus could be spread by air-conditioning

    Mar 07, 2020 | dailymail.co.uk

    It is standard practice for buildings and cruise ships to use recycled air through air-conditioning systems.

    Professor James G. Dwyer, from Purdue University in Indiana, told the Telegraph: 'The problem is that these systems can't filter out particles smaller than 5,000 nanometers.'

    The size of the coronavirus is not yet known, but a similar respiratory illness, Sars, was recorded at just 120 nanometres.

    Professor Dwyer said that if the current COVID-19 is a similar size, 'the air conditioning system would be carrying the virus to every cabin.

    'Cruise ships could minimise this problem by just using outside air and not recirculating it,' he added.

    Airlines have already sought to reassure passengers that their air-conditioning systems are fit to prevent the coronavirus spreading in the cabin, with Etihad suggesting their system is as watertight as a hospital operating theatre.

    'In any confined area, there is a risk of contracting illnesses from other people,' an airline statement reads.

    'However, the risk is considered lower on aircraft because of the use of high efficiency particulate air filters, which are effective in capturing more than 99 per cent of airborne microbes in filtered air.'

    [Mar 04, 2020] Diamond Princess Updates

    Feb 27, 2020 | www.princess.com
    Guest Disembarkation Complete + Team Member Quarantine

    Princess Cruises can confirm that disembarkation of all guests aboard Diamond Princess is complete. Specialists from the Princess Care Team and Family Assistance programs remain available to both guests and team members.

    Currently, there are fewer than 500 team members on board, with some awaiting government charter flights. For those team members who will not depart by government charter flights, we have finalized plans with the Japan Ministry of Health for a quarantine shoreside facility in Japan.

    Princess Cruises has hired Aspen Medical , an award-winning and WHO-certified company with extensive global experience in delivering public health services, to provide team members with health and wellbeing care during a quarantine at a land-based center in Japan. The Australia-based company will deploy as many as 60 professionals including clinically certified doctors, nurses and environmental health officers along with operations personnel. Aspen Medical will provide services at the facility including daily health checks, laundry services, meal service, housekeeping service and assist with recreational activities.

    This secondary quarantine is required by the Japan Ministry of Health, out of an abundance of caution, to ensure the health and well-being of each team member. Aspen Medical will be operating under the direction of the Japan Ministry of Health, which is ultimately responsible for the quarantine.

    [Mar 04, 2020] Last numbers I find for the Diamond Princessa are 20 Feb wikipedia data: 3063 tested, 634 positives and 328 asymptomatic

    Mar 04, 2020 | www.nakedcapitalism.com

    Did not that possibility, more asymptomatic cases than other places that were not testing, also show up with the Diamond Princess? Last numbers I find are 20 Feb wikipedia. 3063 tested, 634 positives and 328 asymptomatic.

    It does perhaps seem that there is an effort among those concerned 1st about markets to minimize testing (restrict information), muzzle scientists etc. Same playbook for the climate crisis.

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