May the source be with you, but remember the KISS principle ;-) Skepticism and critical thinking is not panacea, but can help to understand the world better
The virus epidemic which started in the USA in full force in March will probably follow Chinese pattern. Which means the
time to the peak will be around two-three months (which means in summer the epidemics start subsiding.)
Might be shorter taking into account drastic measures taken by some state like NY, NJ, California and Washington. Currently
NewYork is the epicenter of the epidemics.
As of March 21 we still
see typical for initial stages of any flu epidemic exponential increase of cases, with the number of patient doubling in
approx. three days but very low number of critical cases.
Date
Total cases
Day increase
Serious
Deaths
Recovered
Notes
3/1
75
3/2
100
33.33%
100 mark
3/3
124
24.00%
3/4
158
27.42%
3/5
221
39.87%
3/6
319
44.34%
3/7
435
36.36%
3/8
541
24.37%
3/9
704
30.13%
3/10
994
41.19%
1K mark
3/11
1,364
37.22%
3/12
1,698
24.49%
3/13
2,247
32.33%
3/14
2,943
30.97%
3/15
3,680
25.04%
10
3/16
4,663
26.71%
10
86
3/17
6,411
37.49%
12
109
3/18
9,259
44.42%
12
150
10K mark
3/19
13,789
48.93%
12
207
3/20
19,384
40.58%
64
256
3/21
24,207
24.88%
64
302
147
3/22
33,546
38.58%
64
419
178
3/23
43,734
30.37%
795
573
184
3/24
54,808
25.32%
1040
775
378
Starting from 100K cases the rate of increate will probably slow down. Number of infections among medical personnel are unavailable (worldometers.info)
It took the USA eight days to get from 100 cases to 1000 and another eight days to get from 1K to 10K. Some of the dynamics can be explained
the low availability of test kits -- this was the area where CDC royally screwed the US
population
Unfortunately, the current atmosphere increasingly exhibits the characteristics of a collective panic—and that is always a poor
basis for intelligent policy decisions.
The neoliberal society with its twisted guiding philosophy of radical individualism and competition combined with a supremacist
“that could never happen here” attitude quickly falls into panicked chaos when reality kicks in and reveals the society’s underlying
vulnerabilities. Countries with weak social safety nets and an ideological opposition to social responsibility are extremely
vulnerable to systemic breakdown when their societies are hit with unexpected stress. That is what we see in the USA. This virus is
revealing just how ineffective the neoliberal social Darwinism (“every man for himself”) ethic (aka "neoliberal rationality")
is and how deeply in denial and out of touch with reality these societies are. Including first of all neoliberal politicians.
The for-profit health system in the USA is certainly is very efficient in raking in cash for insurance companies and big pharma.
But health care outcomes are mediocre at best and other countries do a far better job for far less money. The most basic needs of
patients and health care workers are often unmet. Health care workers complain they haven’t received proper training putting them in
danger of infection and do not have supplies to protect themselves even as they treat COVID-19 patients. And that's in richest
country in the world.
...system can’t provide enough hand sanitizer the governor of New York came up with a solution. Andrew Cuomo announced that
the state will produce hand sanitizer made by
prison labor .
The original reaction in the United States government to the corona outbreak was surprisingly casual. And that despire multiple
intelligence againces who supposedly produce beefing for the President and other key figures of the administration (U.S.
intelligence reports from January and February warned about a likely pandemic ). Early on it was clear the older
population will be hit hard, but administration did not close access to senior care centers. They did nothing to rump up local
production of masks and other clothing necessary for medical personnel to fight infection. Medics, who are in most danger among all
population groups, were not systematically trained by Koreans (the USA has two month to do so). Proper protocols
were not established. This was the major blunder of Trump administration and the case of bureaucratic incompetence what will be
studying in books.
In the absence of data, prepare-for-the-worst reasoning leads to extreme measures of social distancing and lockdowns.
Unfortunately,
we do not know if these
measures work. School closures, for example, may reduce transmission rates. But they may also backfire if children socialize
anyhow, if school closure leads children to spend more time with susceptible elderly family members, if children at home disrupt
their parents ability to work, and more. School closures may also diminish the chances of developing herd immunity in an age
group that is spared serious disease.
The USA government behaviour drastically changed in March 11 with Trump's surprise announcement of cancelling air travel from EU countries for 30 days.
Initially GB and
Ireland were excluded, which provide for strangled travelers a "window" of escape. Later they were added. Still all this was
badly planned and caused major panic with ticket prices for the last flights from EU to the USA skyrocketing.
CDC blunders is another parts of the story of bureaucratic incompetence. CDC did not launch the training of medical
personnel to use protective gear, despite that the fact that the virus severely affected medical personnel in Wuhan. There was
no efforts to launch additional production of masks and ventilators domestically, despite that fact that both are known bottlenecks. There
were only very limited attempt to establish the screening and mandatory quarantine of passengers in airports, arriving from
international flights. There were no attempt to supply hospitals in large cities with additional ventilators, masksa. and similar
protection gear. Looks like the USA government wasted the whole February and met flaring up of infections in March unprepared.
And what is most important CDC botched the production and distribution of virus tests leaving the country without them till late
March, when tesing can change nothing. Gin was out of the bottle.
It seems the CDC, NIH and the USA privatized health care system in general was caught flat-footed as if they didn't have any plan
to execute. Currently CDC does not even provide the information about how this particular virus spreads (Transmission
of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) CDC):
The virus is thought to spread mainly from person-to-person.
Between people who are in close contact with one another (within about 6 feet).
Through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs or sneezes.
These droplets can land in the mouths or noses of people who are nearby or possibly be inhaled into the lungs.
Spread from contact with infected surfaces or objects
It may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then
touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this is not thought to be the main way the virus spreads.
Asked about WHO's coronavirus fatality rate findings during an interview Wednesday, Trump told Fox News host Sean Hannity:
"Well, I think the 3.4% is really a false number."
He added, "now, this is just my hunch ... based on a lot of conversations with a lot of people that do this, because a lot of
people will have this, and it's very mild."
Trump later put the number at less than 1%.
Later events proved that he was right.
While some problems that the USA now experience with coronavirus are the direct or indirect result of blunders (like CDC blunder
with test kits; of overcrowding of returning passengers in airports on arrival from Europe after the fight ban), some are not.
Many things are rooted deeply in neoliberal globalization and perverted neoliberal rationality. Both make proper reaction to
dangerous epidemic almost impossible. So by-and-large the USA current problems were unavoidable.
Also in epidemics like in war mistakes are to be made. At the same time repeating Chinese mistakes was pain vanilla incompetence.
Classic bureaucratic incompetence, if you wish. While there are no perfect responses in the current environment (the availability of
a vaccine would change everything), the earlier government reacted, the slower the virus would spread. But under neoliberal
globalization any reaction entails severe economic disruption, and that means that the measures were postponed till it's to late for
them to be affective while providing the same level of economic disruption. Meanwhile large sectors of the economy, here and
abroad, are nearly collapsing because of fears about COVID-19 epidemics that are not entirely justified.
Watch the interviews below. Dr. Anthony Fauci who is
the head of the head of the
National Institute of
Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) This high level "medical diplomat" in his March interviews carefully avoid
mentioning that fact that CDC completely botched producing and distributing test kits and the government did nothing substantial to
combat the virus the whole February. Most airports did not perform even elementary screening of arriving passengers. And the
operation of returning the US citizens from Europe after travel with EU countries was banned was also completely botched. All
February the administration essentially was allowing the flow infected passengers from Italy and France without screening and
quarantine (two severely hit by COVID-19 countries with large tourists flows from the USA) to spread the disease in the USA:
But there is some progress. With national emergency declared on Feb 13, FEMA's USD 50 billion is unlocked to fight the COVID-19
pandemic. FEMA is one of the few federal institutions which still works and works well.
Arrival of warm weather on Eastern Coast may significantly change the dynamic of epidemics, slow down infections and help NYC,
which is the most severe affected on this coast and the most densely populated area.
Measures for self-isolation of seniors like California tries now is of vital importance and it should have been done much
earlier, because the USA has advantage of Chinese experience with this epidemic (which it by-and-large ignored). This was not done.
There should also be the prohibition of air trips and remove vacations (including cruise ships) for this category of people.
Violators they put their own life and lives of other people especially medical personnel in unnecessary danger. Seniors are the
major factor is overcrowding of intensive care beds in the hospitals. Trying to protect them from this virus is probably the
most important part of "flattening the curve" efforts.
The USA has a lower population density than other affected countries so outside of large cities like New York it is in much
better position to suppress the epidemics. Large parts of the country such as Texas already have warm weather which
typically helps to suppress such epidemics.
Globally COVID-19 is spreading more slowly then in the USA slowly: 69K cases on Feb 15 vs. 162K cases on March 15: in other words
the number of cases approx. doubled in one month period. Assuming that the next month will be same and then epidemic start to
subside replicating the shape of the curve before the peak, we will have globally around 162+324+162K=648K or something like
half-million cases total for this virus
The delay between the shutdown in Wuhan and a fall in new daily cases
was 12 days . That suggests that in two weeks from now we will probably see a drop in the number of new cases in the US.
But that is not guaranteed.
The priority is to slow down the spread of the disease to lessen overcrowding of hospital beds with
severe cases.
At the same time there are multiple cases of selfish, reckless behaviour of a part of the population. Some young people
from closed schools and universities engage in travel as tickets and hotels are dirt cheap now. Those who carry the virus are
spreading the infection with them. Some people who are at risk are not wearing mask and engage in reckless behaviour
disrespecting community interests such as shopping using public transport or other encounters with large number of people. Years of
neoliberalism brainwashing ("Greed is good", "shareholder value" mantra, glorification of unlimited predatory competition as
in Latin saying "homo homini lupus est")
converted a large part of the US population into greedy and selfish animals, and while such people concentrate in
FIRE sector, other segment of population are also severely affected. The situation is especially bad in NYC.
Years of neoliberalism brainwashing converted some part of the US population into greedy and selfish animals and this
epidemic and while such people concentrate in FIRE sector, other segment of population are also severely affected. Epidemic of
hoarding also had shown the ugly face of neoliberal
rationality in full grace. The situation is especially bad in NYC.
So far infections are clustered within families and friends of initially infected persons. For example, if wife is infected, the
husband and children typically became infected too. Common spreading centers are religious gatherings and conferences. The same
danger represents travelling with the infected person in public transport if he/she is not wearing a mask, or any other close
and prolonged contact. Most of initial US patients had recently visited Wuhan or attended meeting/conference were at least one
infected person was present. "Community spread" cases, where person was infected in transport or public places like
grocery shops like on this early state of epidemic are relatively rare.
Judging from China experience the next two months in the USA will be "interesting times." The lower you are in the "wealth
pyramid" the worse it is for you. Particularly for the elderly underclass.
Is the Chinese Government using the Corona outbreak as a cover for some other purpose?
Definitely. Iranian too. Related to trade war/sanctions I feel. The bottom line, everybody on top wins, in this game.
Say….up to 20 %. The rest are designated losers. Lower in the pyramid worse it is. The elderly underclass in particular.
Good gig…for some. So far works like charm.
Critique of the "flattening the curve" approach adopted by the USA
Yet if the health system does become overwhelmed, the majority of the extra deaths may not be due to coronavirus but to other
common diseases and conditions such as heart attacks, strokes, etc that are not adequately treated. If the level of the epidemic
does overwhelm the health system and extreme measures have only modest effectiveness, then flattening the curve may make things
worse: Instead of being overwhelmed during a short, acute phase, the health system will remain overwhelmed for a more protracted
period. That’s another reason we need data about the exact level of the epidemic activity.
One of the bottom lines is that we don’t know how long ockdowns can be maintained without major consequences to the economy and
society. Hyping the threat by MSM already produced harding epidemic in the USA. Unpredictable evolutions may
ensue, including financial crisis.
At a minimum, we need unbiased prevalence and incidence data for the evolving infectious load to guide decision-making.
In the most pessimistic scenario, which I do not espouse, if the new coronavirus infects 60% of the global population and 1% of
the infected people die, that will translate into more than 40 million deaths globally, matching the 1918 influenza pandemic.
The vast majority of this hecatomb would be people with limited life expectancies. That’s in contrast to 1918, when many young
people died.
We can discuss whether CODID-19 represents a pandemic or not, but hoarding epidemics in the USA is very real.
It also feels like a scam: there is no shortage of snake oil sellers who hope stoking such fears will make people buy more
supplies. The reality is that there is little point “preparing“ for the most catastrophic scenarios some of these people envision.
As a species, we live and die by our social world and infrastructure — and outside some minimal stocks (say two weeks supply
of food in areas affected by infection and which might be subject to quarantine (which are currently only two cities in the
US.) Moreover, it is difficult to predict what will be needed in the face of total catastrophe (Preparing
for Coronavirus to Strike the U.S. - Scientific American Blog Network ). You can't drink sanitizer and you need minimal amount
of it when you are outside of home. In all other cases regular soap is more effective against this virus, so hoarding
sanitizer is far from the best move you can make:
American Association for the Advancement of Science By Derek Lowe 4 March, 2020
Since this is going to be a post about the coronavirus, let's start off with this PSA: wash your hands. These viruses have
a lipid envelope that is crucial to their structure and function, and soaps and detergents are thus very effective at
inactivating them. It's fast, it's simple, and it's one of the more useful things that any individual can do under these
conditions.
The real crisis scenarios we’re likely to encounter require cooperation and, crucially, “flattening the curve” of the crisis
which includes sharing not hoarding, so the more vulnerable (older folks) can fare better and our social world and the
infrastructure will be less stressed. For those who can do it that way that means switching to work from home and avoiding
unnecessary travel and meetings. Most think those days can be done via phone of via teleconferencing.
We do not need to contribute to the panic, and to panic buying isopropyl alcohol and hand sanitizers as if there no
tomorrow. From state to state, shelves at grocery stores are being emptied. Community after community is stocking up on essential
goods as they anticipate a very remote (or non-existent in many areas of the country ) possibility our of fears of forced
China style self-quarantine. In reality only retired persons in areas with active cases of infection need to self-quarantine
as they are the most vulnerable and can overwhelm hospitals. They generally should stay home, avoid direct contact with
relatives and friends (which are rare those days, anyway, so no big deal) , and do only rare shopping which should exclude all
shopping for clothing, etc. They need a lot of exposure to sun, vitamins, flesh air to boost the immune system. Abandoning bad
habits like smoking would be nice too. No or minimal visits to restaurants, entertainment centers like casino, or God forbid
cruise ships or international travel. For the sake of everyone else, they should prepare to stay home for a few weeks, while
epidemic burns out in their neighborhood and try their best not to be infected. This way they will reduce their own
risks, but most importantly, they will reduce the burden on health care and delivery infrastructure and allow frontline workers to
reach and help the most vulnerable.
What does “flattening the curve” mean for the current COVID-19 threat facing us: the emerging pandemic of this human
coronavirus? Epidemiologists often talk about two important numbers: R0 or how infectious a disease might be,
expressed as the number of people that are infected by each person who’s been infected; and the case fatality ratio
(CFR): the number of people who die as a result of being infected. For example, an R0 of two means each infected
person infects two people on average, while a number less than one means the disease is likely dying out in the population. Some
diseases are deadlier than others: the average case fatality ratio for Ebola has been around 50 percent, for example, while the
common cold is rarely deadly for otherwise healthy individuals.
The infectiousness of a virus, for example, depends on how much we encounter one another; how well we quarantine
individuals who are ill; how often we wash our hands; whether those treating the ill have proper protective equipment; how
healthy we are to begin with—and such factors are all under our control. After active measures were implemented, the R0 for
the 2003 SARS epidemic, for example, went from around three, meaning each person infected three others, to 0.04. It was our
response to SARS in 2003 that made sure the disease died out from earth, with less than a thousand victims globally.
... ... ..
All of this means that the only path to flattening the curve for COVID-19 is community-wide isolation: the more people stay
home, the fewer people will catch the disease. The fewer people who catch the disease, the better hospitals can help those who
do. Crowding at hospitals doesn’t just threaten those with COVID-19; if emergency rooms are overwhelmed, more flu patients, too,
will die because of lack of treatment, for example.
But what we see in the USA is primitive and destructive hoarding epidemic. Toilet paper, sanitary wipes and sanitizers are in
short supply as stocks are being exhausted. As of March 3, 2020 a 250 ml (8 ounces) bottle of hand sanitizer on Amazon was $60 or so
(while its regular price is $2 or so ;-). This is not only ridiculous but it beats "socialist back market" prices.
Ana
I know someone who is the head of security in the SF Bay for a large big box membership store that all of us in the States
are familiar with. Their stores in the SF Bay area have been selling out of water, hand sanitizers, gloves, masks and
other similar cleaning supplies, along with boxed mac and cheese and similar long shelf life foods.
Their regional supply center that brings replacement supply in over night by semi trucks has not been able to refill it’s
own pallets from suppliers. He just texted me pics of local big box stores in the Bay with empty shelves and no back stock is
available. I can’t find info on sales of things like generators. I don’t care what soothing nonsense the TV and feds blather
at us. People are trying to get what they think they need to cope with serious disruption.
Ana in Sacramento.
P.S. By the way, I was one of the paper pushers who designed emergency response and business resumption plans for the State
of California. This event was never considered or planned for. I’m retired so it may have been added after I left.
The dynamic of the USA panic can be watched via Amazon prices for those items and as of March 7 the panic is still in full swing
(you can buy the same 250 ml(8 ounces) bottle for mere $35 ;-) . And they used to say that such hoarding behaviour is
typical only for socialism ;-).
And despite chaotic and botched containment of epidemic (CDC botched development and production of test kits so badly that the
officials responsible probably should be tried for criminal negligence ) the USA government managed already take several measures to
slow down the spread of the virus (please note that time is working against the virus -- warm weather in East cost will come in May
or even earlier).
For example, starting Sunday, Feb. 2, the US citizens, permanent residents and immediate family who have visited China's Hubei
province undergo a mandatory 14 days quarantine. On Mar 11, Trump administration prohibited all flights from Europe firs exampling
UK and Ireland and later adding them.
On Mar 13 Trump has declared the coronavirus a US national emergency and offered $50 billion for support of state and local
governments to fight the virus with FEMA.
At the same time the US Fed has increased its public support of the global private banking system in amounts looking to total in
the trillions of dollars and our Congress Critters are setting up to re-authorize the Patriot Act suppression of human rights.
On March 15 CDC recommended that all gatherings of more than 50 people within the United States be canceled for the next 8 weeks.
The same day California ordered all bars and nightclubs to shut their doors, restaurants to cut the number of tables in half and
for millions of seniors and people with chronic health conditions to immediately “self-isolate” at home
(mercurynews.com)
As the coronavirus continues its rapid spread, Gov. Gavin Newsom on Sunday afternoon issued an urgent call for all California,
restaurants to cut the number of tables in half and for millions of seniors and people with chronic health conditions to
immediately “self-isolate” at home.
Newsom’s unprecedented call for action is designed to slow the infection rate, especially among the most vulnerable. The
governor stopped short of asking eating establishments to shut their doors, saying the need for food service during the pandemic
remained vital.
“We need to prioritize our focus,” Newsom said during an hour-long press conference in Sacramento. “We are looking at this
from a very holistic perspective.”
It was unclear how long the self-quarantine for seniors should continue.
NYC closed all schools staring Monday, March 16, 2020. NJ followed the suit. Both states resorted to pretty drastic
measures. All schools, entertainment outlets such as bars, nightclubs and non-essential shops are closed in NY and NJ.
Meetings over 50 people prohibited. Malls are also closes in some counties.
The CDC stunning failure to provide the coronavirus testing kits needed to control the spread of the outbreak is a national
outrage. Their incompetence threatens to increase the scope and prolong the duration of epidemics and contributes to troubles
that now the USA economy experience.
It is unlearn why the CDC failed to make mass production of test kits its top priority and who is responsible. But it is clear
that heads should roll (The Mercury News
editorial,
South Korea is testing 20,000 people every day, thanks to a biotech firm that anticipated the threat in January. South Korea
is providing free tests for anyone a doctor deems necessary at more than 100 facilities across the nation. The result is that
South Korea is now seeing more recoveries than new cases.
Contrast that with the state of California, which has only 10 million fewer people than South Korea. Gov. Gavin Newsom said
Thursday that the state has been provided with 8,227 testing kits from the CDC. But some of those kits did not contain all the
chemicals needed to administer them to Californians — a glaring failure given that it’s been nearly two months since the
coronavirus outbreak began in China.
Newsom compared it to “going to the store and purchasing a printer, but forgetting to purchase the ink. You need multiple
components.”
All told, as of Friday [Mar13, 2020], California had conducted a total of only 1,573 tests at its 18 state test labs.
The problem stems from the CDC’s botched first effort to mass produce test kits, followed by delays in sending promised
replacement kits for several weeks.
“The incompetence has really exceeded what anyone would expect with the CDC,” Dr. Michael Mina, an epidemiologist at Harvard
University, told the New York Times. “This is not a difficult problem to solve in the world of viruses.”
Testing is crucial to slowing the spread of the disease because it allows those who are infected to be quarantined. Health
officials can then trace who they may have been in contact with and test and possibly quarantine those people.
It’s essential that Congress investigate what went wrong and take steps to prevent it from happening during the next inevitable
infectious disease threat. But that’s for another day. The focus now must be on taking steps to minimize further spread of
coronavirus and its impact on people and the economy.
The state is turning to its major hospitals and private labs for additional help. It’s possible that their testing sites could be
up and running in the next week. President Trump’s declaration of a national emergency on Friday could also eliminate red tape
and speed the testing process.
Once upon a time, the United States was the global leader in fighting infectious diseases and serving as the provider for testing
kits to the world. Those days are long gone. The CDC must act to make up for its incompetence and take whatever steps necessary
to protect Americans against current and future outbreaks.
The CDC must also give clear direction on how hospitals can treat patients during this national emergency. It is not done. China
recommended three drugs that can help some patients. CDC does not provided any recommendations at all.
Abrupt announcement caused panic and airports on arrival became so overcrowded that they became epicenter of spreading the
decease: they manage to replicate the situation that was far worse that exists on cruise ships with many thousand of people.
Air conditioners are also known to circulate air-borne diseases such as Legionairre’s Disease, a potentially fatal infectious
disease that produces high fever and pneumonia. For efficiency air-conditioned on cruise ships, bases and airplanes mix fresh air
with the already circulated air and this is a concern. For example, some experts think that
in Diamond Princess cruise ship epidemic AC might help to spread the virus to all cabin
Currently there is no strong evidence to support the claim that the virus can be transmitted through the air conditioner
recirculation. It is believed to be spread mainly through droplets on close contact with infected person (less then 2m). In this
case the mucus or saliva of an infected person who sneezes or coughs can be inhaled and infect the person. This virus is
likely to die when the droplets dry up (Can
the coronavirus be spread through the air, Singapore News & Top Stories - The Straits Times):
Experts say if the virus could really survive even after the droplets carrying it have dried up, it would have spread through
the air as dust particles and potentially infected 10 times more people, which is not the case.
Last week, a Shanghai official, Mr Zeng Qun, said the virus could spread through aerosol transmission, or the mixing of the
virus with airborne liquid droplets.
This would allow the virus to linger in the air and infect those who inhale it, he said. Diseases that are known to spread
this way include tuberculosis, chicken pox and measles.
But an infectious diseases expert at the Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Mr Feng Luzhao, refuted this on
Sunday, stating that the droplets carrying the virus travel only about 1m to 2m and
do not stay suspended in the air. This is why you are unlikely to catch the virus through transient (or short-term)
contact such as on public transport.
Ultraviolet rays and heat from the sun can kill the virus as virus does not last long on fresh air in a sunny day. This is
true for all viruses. The likelihood of viral persistence outdoors is lower, as most studies indicate that viruses do not survive in
hot and humid environments. This refers to a temperature of over 30C and a humidity level of over 80 per cent.
Using humidifier at home and maintaining 50% humidity might help to protect you and family members.
The shortage could also be a matter of the medical bureaucracy at play. A primary driver in
physicians actions is whether or not they will be sued. If they prescribe malaria medication
for covid-19, a use that has not gone through clinical trials and FDA approval, could they be
sued if someone dies? They may expect it to work, which is why they are hoarding for
themselves and their family. But, if someone dies while being treated by ventilator, they
have no exposure because it is currently within medical guidelines.
In contrast, Chinese doctors can and are solving the problem through trial and error. One
doctor tries a medication on a patient and if the patient recovers he can communicate to
other doctors to try the medication. They dont have a system in which an attorney looking for
cash shows up if an already dying patient dies anyway.
This is a big problem for the US that is going to lead to many unnecessary deaths.
"... Put together, they reveal how big a share of the American markets for drugs, medical devices, and protective gear is controlled by goods made overseas. The big takeaway is that the nation could be in big enough trouble if supply disruptions were to occur in normal times (say, due to natural disasters in manufacturing centers abroad). During a high-mortality pandemic like the CCP Virus, these levels of foreign dependency are high enough to guarantee significant numbers of needless deaths. ..."
"... And in fact, the import penetration trends for these products exemplify the nation's health care security weaknesses. In 2002 -- a good baseline, since that's the first year China was a member of the World Trade Organization -- imports overall accounted for 16.7 percent of all surgical appliances and supplies used in the United States (measured by value, not numbers of masks or pairs of gloves). During the first full year of the Great Recession, 2008, this share totaled 28.08 percent. ..."
"... Keeping this qualification in mind, overall, 32.41 percent of surgical appliances and supplies were imported from other countries by 2011, according to these figures. In 2016, that number reached 41.81 percent of a $33.71 billion U.S. market. It may well be higher these days, as between then and last year, U.S. overseas purchases jumped by more than 29 percent. (Interestingly, in light of domestic shortages, U.S. exports in appliances and supplies actually rose by more than 13 percent during this period!) ..."
"... Ventilators, sadly, have been in the news, too; they and related products like oxygen tents and bronchoscopes and inhalators and suction equipment are found in a big goods category called surgical and medical instruments. In 2002, imports from all corners of the world represented 22.04 percent of American consumption. By 2016, this figure stood at 35.91 percent of a $37.5 billion national market, and over the next three years, imports grew nearly 31 percent. (Exports expanded at a relatively slow 11.84 percent.) ..."
"... exclusive U.S. reliance on China for the chemical ingredients of numerous medicines has now become a major federal government concern. ..."
"... The main foreign suppliers to the American pharmaceuticals market as of last year look encouragingly diversified and encouragingly friendly. For example, Ireland was number one, with 22.15 percent of such shipments, followed by Switzerland with 14.05 percent. But third and fourth, with 8.87 percent and 8.39 percent of imports, were Germany and India, respectively, both of which have limited or embargoed their medical exports this year. And number five, at 7.38 percent, was Italy -- whose current CCP Virus devastation could easily bring about export restrictions. ..."
"... Last year, America's leading foreign supplier of surgical and medical instruments (the ventilators category) was Mexico, which sold U.S. customers 28.58 percent of the $17.62 billion of total imports. But export-curber Germany was number three, at 9.43 percent, and China was sixth, at 6.93 percent. ..."
"... Purely domestic policy steps, like mandating more stockpiling or new recycling and re-use strategies, undoubtedly can add to national medical products supplies. But even these general import penetration figures, along with the shortage reports that keep pouring in, make clear that enduring national health care security can't be restored without a major ramping up of domestic output. And since export-heavy economies like China's and Germany's will undoubtedly work overtime to keep their American health care customers -- including with all manner of predatory economic practices -- it's similarly clear that big, lasting U.S. departures from standard free trade policies will be unavoidable. ..."
Not Just China: U.S. Reliance on Foreign Medical Supplies is Staggering
The government's own numbers tell a frightening tale of how this happened, and when.
Virus pandemic having exposed scary domestic shortages of critical medical
goods ranging from safety masks to ventilators, along with potential shortages of
pharmaceuticals, political leaders across the spectrum are finally regretting having allowed so
much output of these products to migrate offshore.
China's role in global supply chains has understandably sparked much of the alarm, since its
government has all but threatened to withhold supplies of medicines whenever it wishes. But all
told, at least 38 countries (including the 27-member European Union) have curbed exports of
anti-pandemic products at some point since the CCP Virus began dominating headlines.
So
potential foreign chokeholds in the nation's health care-related supply chains appear global in
scope. The federal government's best data make clear just how widespread the problem has
become, and how steadily it's been growing.
The figures come from the government's statistics on industry-by-industry manufacturing
output and on exports and imports. (The output data can be accessed through databases created
by the Census Bureau for its Annual Survey of Manufactures that are located at this link . The
trade numbers can be retrieved at an interactive database maintained by the U.S. International
Trade Commission that's located at this link .)
Put together, they reveal how big a share of the American markets for drugs, medical
devices, and protective gear is controlled by goods made overseas. The big takeaway is that the
nation could be in big enough trouble if supply disruptions were to occur in normal times (say,
due to natural disasters in manufacturing centers abroad). During a high-mortality pandemic
like the CCP Virus, these levels of foreign dependency are high enough to guarantee significant
numbers of needless deaths.
These statistics aren't problem-free. Principally, because the manufacturing output figures
are so granular, and therefore take so long to compile, import penetration rates for these (and
other manufactures) can be calculated only through 2016. Yet the more timely import numbers can
provide a reasonable indication of whether vulnerabilities are worsening or shrinking. At the
same time, the government's main trade data aren't nearly as detailed as the production
numbers. As a result, it's not possible to know the percentage of, say, safety masks used in
the United States that are produced abroad. But it's easy to come up with this number for the
category in which masks (and other protective gear) are grouped -- surgical appliances and
supplies.
And in fact, the import penetration trends for these products exemplify the nation's health
care security weaknesses. In 2002 -- a good baseline, since that's the first year China was a
member of the World Trade Organization -- imports overall accounted for 16.7 percent of all
surgical appliances and supplies used in the United States (measured by value, not numbers of
masks or pairs of gloves). During the first full year of the Great Recession, 2008, this share
totaled 28.08 percent.
Notably, these imports from China were a tiny 1.5 percent in 2002, and had actually dropped
to 0.49 percent by 2008. By 2016, they accounted for a seemingly modest 6.54 percent of
American consumption. But here's where another weakness in the data emerges: they say nothing
about the origin of the materials, parts, and components of the final goods.
Keeping this qualification in mind, overall, 32.41 percent of surgical appliances and
supplies were imported from other countries by 2011, according to these figures. In 2016, that
number reached 41.81 percent of a $33.71 billion U.S. market. It may well be higher these days,
as between then and last year, U.S. overseas purchases jumped by more than 29 percent.
(Interestingly, in light of domestic shortages, U.S. exports in appliances and supplies
actually rose by more than 13 percent during this period!)
Ventilators, sadly, have been in the news, too; they and related products like oxygen tents
and bronchoscopes and inhalators and suction equipment are found in a big goods category called
surgical and medical instruments. In 2002, imports from all corners of the world represented
22.04 percent of American consumption. By 2016, this figure stood at 35.91 percent of a $37.5
billion national market, and over the next three years, imports grew nearly 31 percent.
(Exports expanded at a relatively slow 11.84 percent.)
Again, the China figures are small beans -- the import penetration rate for 2016 was a mere
2.35 percent. But these products often contain lots of electronics parts, and half the world's
printed circuit boards, for example, are made in the People's Republic. In other words, lots of
existing global surge capacity throughout the sector is ultimately controlled by Beijing.
Thanks to the work of researchers like the Hastings Center's Rosemary Gibson and independent
journalist Katherine Eban, heavy and sometimes exclusive U.S. reliance on China for the
chemical ingredients of numerous medicines has now become a major federal government concern.
Indeed, the Food and Drug Administration is keeping an especially close eye on the availability
of no fewer than 20 pharmaceutical products that use Chinese raw materials. (Unfortunately, the
FDA won't say what they are, which calls for some Freedom of Information Act requests,
pronto.)
But the import penetration figures make clear that supply disruptions could also originate
elsewhere. Between 2002 and 2016, drugs produced overseas more than doubled their share of
America's consumption (which stood at nearly $200 billion three years ago), from 17.23 percent
to 38.51 percent. As of 2019, moreover, U.S. drugs imports were 20.34 percent higher than in
2016.
The main foreign suppliers to the American pharmaceuticals market as of last year look
encouragingly diversified and encouragingly friendly. For example, Ireland was number one, with
22.15 percent of such shipments, followed by Switzerland with 14.05 percent. But third and
fourth, with 8.87 percent and 8.39 percent of imports, were Germany and India, respectively,
both of which have limited or embargoed their medical exports this year. And number five, at
7.38 percent, was Italy -- whose current CCP Virus devastation could easily bring about export
restrictions.
Nor is this pattern restricted to pharmaceuticals. Last year, America's leading foreign
supplier of surgical and medical instruments (the ventilators category) was Mexico, which sold
U.S. customers 28.58 percent of the $17.62 billion of total imports. But export-curber Germany
was number three, at 9.43 percent, and China was sixth, at 6.93 percent.
For surgical appliances and supplies (the masks and protective gear category), Ireland
topped the 2019 foreign supplier list, selling the United States 24.09 percent of its $18.21
billion of total imports. But China was second, at 15.29 percent, and in third place, at 9.68
percent, stood Malaysia, which banned mask exports on March 20.
Purely domestic policy steps, like mandating more stockpiling or new recycling and re-use
strategies, undoubtedly can add to national medical products supplies. But even these general
import penetration figures, along with the shortage reports that keep pouring in, make clear
that enduring national health care security can't be restored without a major ramping up of
domestic output. And since export-heavy economies like China's and Germany's will undoubtedly
work overtime to keep their American health care customers -- including with all manner of
predatory economic practices -- it's similarly clear that big, lasting U.S. departures from
standard free trade policies will be unavoidable.
Alan Tonelson is the founder of RealityChek, a public policy blog focusing on economics
and national security, and the author of The Race to the Bottom .
The money-driven institutions long ago hijacked America's health agencies–the Centers
for Disease Control (CDC), FDA, Health and Human Services (HHS), National Institutes of
Allergies and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), National Institutes of Mental Health, and the
USDA– authentic scientific inquiry of any sort is virtually impossible in this climate.
During the past two decades the lines dividing the pharmaceutical industry and the federal
health agencies has become increasingly blurred to put it kindly. The revolving door between
private interests and top government employees at these agencies is well documented. One
example is former CDC director Julie Gerberding who left government to become president of
Merck's vaccine division, a move that earned her upwards of $3 million in stock options.
Keep in mind that CDC members own more than 50 patents connected to vaccinations.
Each of the 12 members of the CDC's ACIP Committee has a significant influence on the
health of nearly every member of the American population. These are the people who are
responsible for adding to and/or altering the national vaccine schedule. Does anyone believe
for a second that given that these CDC members have a direct financial interest in this
matter that they can remain objective and unbiased in creating vaccine policy, for
example.
A significant number of ACIP committee members receive direct financial returns when more
vaccinations are added to the current schedule. Many own vaccination related patents.
Some examples of patents owned or shared by members of the CDC and/or ACIP committee
are;
1) Nucleic acid vaccines for prevention of flavivirus infection"
2) Various vaccination testing methods
3) Adjuvant patents
4) Assays that assist vaccine development
5) Vaccine quality control
Members of the CDC also own stock shares of the pharmaceutical companies responsible for
supplying new vaccines to the public. Others receive research grant money, funding for their
academic departments, or payments for the oversight of vaccine safety trials.
In 2007 the WHO changed it's definition of what qualifies as a pandemic. That needs to
considered in the context of how the WHO changing it's funding mechanisms in 2005- meaning
they went from a member states funded entity to a "private/public" partnership (PPP's).
As you might imagine the pharmaceuticals became primary donors and began to influence and
now control policy decisions that come down from the WHO. Let's also keep in mind that when a
"global pandemic" (again this is now defined by a decision-making body tied to large Pharma
companies) is officially declared, certain powers now become "legal" for governments.
One of THE main outcomes in these PPP's is that virtually all funding for medical research
gets funneled into certain spheres- meaning towards research that is ultimately going to
benefit those companies funding it- Big Pharma.
Taiwan was screaming out to WHO in early Jan that China had a new emerging epidemic to no
avail.
Posted by: KiwiKris | Mar 26 2020 3:46 utc | 63
_______________________________________________
You've been soaking up the US disinformation campaign against China. This is timetable for
January:
China reported there was a novel virus to the WHO on Jan. 3 -- is that early enough in
January for you?
China shared the full genome sequence to the WHO and the intl community on Jan 7th.
China invited the WHO to send an investigative team to Wuhan on the 10th. The WHO
investigative team had free access to talk to anyone and go anywhere.
That's what transparency looks like.
I await the day when the US govt invites the WHO to investigate and evaluate its virus
response. It's very transparent that would never happen, but do let me indulge this fantasy
of mine.
International and interregional cooperation and information sharing:
From 3 January 2020, information on COVID-19 cases has been reported to WHO daily. Full
genome sequences of the new virus were shared with WHO and the international community
immediately after the pathogen was identified on 7 January. On 10 January, an expert group
involving Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwanese technical experts and a World Health Organization
team was invited to visit Wuhan. A set of nucleic acid primer sand probes for PCR detection
for COVID-19 was released on 21 January.
I'm 26. Coronavirus Sent Me to the Hospital.
I'm 26. I don't have any prior autoimmune or respiratory conditions. I work out six times a
week, and abstain from cigarettes. I thought my role in the current health crisis would be
as an ally to the elderly and compromised. Then, I was hospitalized for Covid-19.
That night I woke up in the middle of the night with chills, vomiting, and shortness of
breath. By Monday, I could barely speak more than a few words without feeling like I was
gasping for air. I couldn't walk to the bathroom without panting as if I'd run a mile. On
Monday evening, I tried to eat, but found I couldn't get enough oxygen while doing so. Any
task that was at all anxiety-producing -- even resetting my MyChart password to communicate
with my doctor -- left me desperate for oxygen.
While I was shocked at the development of my symptoms and my ultimate hospitalization,
the doctors and nurses were not at all surprised. After I was admitted, I was told that
there was a 30-year-old in the next room who was also otherwise healthy, but who had also
experienced serious trouble breathing. The hospital staff told me that more and more
patients my age were showing up at the E.R. I am thankful to my partner for calling the
hospital when my breathing worsened, and to the doctor who insisted we come in. As soon as
I received an oxygen tube, I began to feel slight relief. I was lucky to get to the
hospital early in the crisis, and receive very attentive care.
@NPleezeThe reason younger Americans are dying is because Americans are extremely unhealthy. I
wager all the very sick younger Americans are obese, probably with diabetes, don't exercise,
and eat unhealthy foods, leading to heart and other weaknesses.
Precisely. We have received several reports recently of young people being hospitalised
and some even dying. However, the reports do not specify the condition of those young people.
In places like the US, the youth are very unhealthy so it would not surprising to discover
the youth requiring hospitalisation are obese or drug takers.
Fiona Lowenstein is a writer, producer, and yoga teacher and the founder of the queer
feminist wellness collective, Body Politic.
From her selfie, she also appears to be an Orthodox Jew, though apparently one of those
classic New York breakaway (sorta) types.
Now, did anyone from the Times validate her story? Of course they didn't. They are
desperate for stories like this. My guess is the entire thing is made up. She looks perfectly
well in her few other hospital selfies on her Instagram. You think people like this wouldn't
rig those photos?
PS -- Her Instagram has a number of bikini shots. Guess what that means.
I'm 26. I don't have any prior autoimmune or respiratory conditions. I work out six
times a week, and abstain from cigarettes.
The highly specific listing of non-symptoms suggests that the patient did have other
co-morbidities, such as obesity, diabetes etc. Did he/she smoke weed? Smoke cigarettes in
the past ?
If he/she had been entirely healthy prior to the infection, he could simply have said
so.
@37
Yesterday I went to Home Depot to buy some water tubing for my ice-maker.
I noticed all doors were blocked with a tape, except one with at least 25 people waiting
to get in and a female employee holding a sign "the line starts here".
I ask the lady what was all about and she said because of the virus etc.
I said to her "You must be kidding" and I start going back to my car.
Some old lady from the line waiting to get in she scream to me something about "we protect
ourselves" and similar nonsense.
I turn around and I said to her: Quit watching TV you idiot. They rob your money on broad
daylight and send your kids to die fighting israels enemies.
The overreaction to the virus makes no sense. Is something being hidden from us? The freak
out over this virus – to the tune of $trillions – is all out of proportion.
2.8 million Americans die every year. Why the obsession with this one virus which may kill
in the thousands?
Something is off. But Trump should have known early if there was some other hidden danger.
If there is some hidden suspicion by the people obsessing over this, please share it!
when one deals with deep uncertainty, both governance and precaution require us to hedge
for the worst. While risk-taking is a business that is left to individuals, collective
safety and systemic risk are the business of the state. Failing that mandate of prudence by
gambling with the lives of citizens is a professional wrongdoing that extends beyond
academic mistake; it is a violation of the ethics of governing.
The obvious policy left now is a lockdown, with overactive testing and contact tracing:
follow the evidence from China and South Korea rather than thousands of error-prone
computer codes. So we have wasted weeks, and ones that matter with a multiplicative
threat.
Some here have said that the economic cost of a lockdown or other measures that severely
impact the economy exceeds the value of the lives saved. But what is that economic cost, in
reality? People putting off buying a house or a car by six months or a year, resulting in an
unrecoverable loss of GDP? But so what? What important difference does that make?
"... Also, one must know the tests specificity and disease prevalence. If specificity is 99.5% and disease prevalence is 0.5%, testing everyone regardless of symptoms or risk will yield 50% false positives (half the positives are false). ..."
"... The tests on the market are self validated. FDA does not review manufacturers data. No tort liability for covid 19 tests or vaccines ..."
"... Likewise I would not trust data from anywhere given the nature of the tests. At the end of the day we will need to look for any bump in total deaths from all causes, population reduction and age data to estimate the impact ..."
"... There is obviously a lot of profit incentive for making people believe there is a threat, which is why our trusted and reliable MSM play it up. ..."
US has actually performed over 150,000 tests. The problem is too much testing.
PCR detects DNA or RNA of both live and dead organisms, positive test results may be
achieved even if the infection has been controlled
Also, one must know the tests specificity and disease prevalence. If specificity is
99.5% and disease prevalence is 0.5%, testing everyone regardless of symptoms or risk will
yield 50% false positives (half the positives are false).
The tests on the market are self validated. FDA does not review manufacturers data. No
tort liability for covid 19 tests or vaccines
China did very little testing the first 2 months the disease wa spreading. We now know
retrospectively the first case was November 17, and expanded testing did not begin until Jan
18 after 16 consecutive days of no new cases. Lockdown did not begin until Jan 23. Its
impossible for the virus to have been contained in Hubei as we are led to believe from data
reported from other provinces
Likewise I would not trust data from anywhere given the nature of the tests. At the
end of the day we will need to look for any bump in total deaths from all causes, population
reduction and age data to estimate the impact
There is obviously a lot of profit incentive for making people believe there is a
threat, which is why our trusted and reliable MSM play it up. But for some reason the so
called evils of capitalism and fake news MSM are ignored by the most faithful opponents of
both in support of the Pandemic Vaccine Industrial Complex
It's incredible that the Director of the Office of Public Health Preparedness and Response at
the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was a participant in the Gates
Foundation Event 201, essentially gaming out the same kind of pandemic which arose just a few
months later.
To say the CDC messed up is an gross understatement.
Their policies of denying testing, pushing a flawed test which had to be withdrawn, and
acting without urgency as their own directives allowed major population centers in Pacific
Northwest, New York and California to become infected beyond control expose a decided lack of
preparedness or response.
A major focus of Event 201 was the integration of private sector, or corporate, interests
into the pandemic response architecture.
The Preparedness and Response people were in effect corporate lobbyists, not public health
experts. Hiding this sad fact is motivating the furious effort to lay all blame at feet of
Chinese government.
Americans have been conditioned to never go to the hospital. Even being hospitalized can
destroy one's finances, let alone for an extended period and actually receiving
treatment.
Lack of testing and diagnostics means that it is impossible for people to know their own
condition and the severity of it. We have multiple reports of people just dropping dead in
the US.
Finally, we are just slightly behind on the timeline. NYC will be in Italy/Spain's
position very shortly, followed by states like Texas which are doing even less to contain it.
Expect it to be worse here when it is all said and done.
" If indeed they did" . . . is a very crucial phrase. With these digifraudulent
Democratic Primary/Caucus elections, we will never know.
As for those who really did vote for Biden, decades of 24/7 psyops and infops against a
mainstream population without the knowledge or energy to extract information from beyond the
Media Plantation will create that kind of voting pattern.
You need to get a lawyer, anyone on Medicare so admitted would be covered, they'd be some
co-pays, per the Centers for Medicaid & Medicare. If the hospital accepts Medicare you
were covered and should (sadly less) owe less than 1k. No way a hospital lets you in for that
procedure without knowing it's getting paid. By law all they have to do is stabilize your
vitals and throw you out the back door. Very sorry and upset to hear of this.
Re Cyril @10
I think the CDC numbers of 160 to 200 million infected are inflated (remember they are
projections, estimations, as are the German numbers)
From other internet sources: China total 81,093 or 56 total cases per million; death 3,270
recovered 72,703
US total 43,651 or 132 total cases per million; death 545
Given that a University of Washington public health researcher identified Covid19 in the
general population in February, we have been harboring this virus for at least two months if
not longer; patient zero from Snohomish Wa was not the first and clearly, person to person
transmission was evident in February.
When she reported this to the CDC she was told to stand down immediately. Again, Why? Why
bankrupt our working classes with 9 to 12 week lockdowns rather than getting hospitals,
clinics, and families the safety products they need to move around the community (e.g. to
work) - gloves, masks, sanitizer, gowns, etc. The lockdown appears to be a drastic move to
compensate for a public health catastrophe as regards preparedness, and is ongoing insofar as
the aforementioned products are not available to the public. Also Gilead has paused provision
of their HIV drug and supplies of chloroquinine, once readily available are now hard to find.
Again, why? And, not surprisingly, access to tests is limited even for our exceptional
frontline medical staffs. Furthermore, no statistics are available regarding the reliability
or validity of the existing tests - major numbers of false positives or negatives can have
drastic consequences. Why?
Not only case correlation with coronavirus is not causation of their deaths but also as
mentioned all the tests are made not among random population as they should to eliminate
methodological data bias but among those who are symptomatic or been in proximity of those
diagnosed or symptomatic of Coronavirus.
And hence numbers derived from such sample are likely questionable as I will elaborate
later.
There is another aspect of likely misclassification of early cases starting in December
2019 and January 2020 as a flu while may indicate mortality rate of SARS-Cov2 similar to that
of 2019-2020 seasonal flu pandemic we are still under. Here is excerpt from congressional
testimony as reported by Counterpunch :
Congressman Harley Rouda asked him this: "So, we could have people in the United States
dying for what appears to be influenza, when in fact it could be the coronavirus or COVID-19?
Redfield replied that, "Some cases have been actually diagnosed that way in the United States
to date."
The revelation passed without further questioning. The U.S. media paid no attention.
News services in China pounced on the statement.
Epidemiologists ought to have been interested in the timing of the epidemic's onset in
the United States. Vagueness on the matter, as suggested by Redfield's testimony, betrays a
remarkable lack of scientific curiosity.
What the public knows is that the first case of imported Coronavirus showed up on
January 21. The first cases of possible community-acquired coronavirus appeared on February
26. On February 14 the CDC indicated persons with influenza-like symptoms would be tested for
COVID 19 in various U.S. cities.
The results of any testing weren't made public, although Redfield's testimony may allude to
them.
The possibility emerges that U.S. people were being infected in January, not long after
Chinese authorities on December 31, 2019 informed the World Health Organization of an
outbreak of a new form of coronavirus infection. Suspicion prevails in China that the
epidemic may have manifested first in someplace other than China.
This lack of curiosity smells rather like political cover-up as other numerous reports
suggest.
Another mystery is inability by Chinese scientists to find patient Number One who
supposedly contracted SARS-Cov2 from yet to be identified and found animal in which organism
supposed fusion happen of two old and known viruses from Betabatcoronavirus group one of them
was original SARS-Cov of epidemic of 2002-2004 in China and 29 other countries.
From CNN:
Comparative genomic analyses have shown that SARS-CoV-2 belongs to the group of
Betacoronaviruses and that it is very close to SARS-CoV, responsible for an epidemic of acute
pneumonia which appeared in November 2002 in the Chinese province of Guangdong and then
spread to 29 countries in 2003. A total of 8,098 cases were recorded, including 774 deaths.
It is known that bats of the genus Rhinolophus (potentially several cave species) were the
reservoir of this virus and that a small carnivore, the palm civet (Paguma larvata), may have
served as an intermediate host between bats and the first human cases...
From AP.
The source of the virus is actually not known. The patient number 1, the person who
first carried the virus, has not been found. The Wuhan wet market where exotic animals are
sold was not the source of the outbreak:
The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions,
offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with
what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). In the earliest case, the patient
became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors
report.
"No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases," they
state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the
marketplace. "That's a big number, 13, with no link," says Daniel Lucey, an infectious
disease specialist at Georgetown University.
Another issue is so called "excess mortality" due to pandemic and here over 3000 deaths in
China in last about 5 months barely registers on mortality gauge as it is moderated among
other factors by deaths attributed to flu which in China averaged at least 60,000-100,000 a
year increasing as population is aging.
In US alone Flu pandemic is still in full swing with about 30,000 dead already in
2019-2020 season to end in two months.
The same lack of evident excess mortality is showing in Europe in the midst of coronavirus
pandemic.
Here is website that tracks EU deaths based of government death records.
Some doctors as well as former public heath officials like Dr. Wolfgang Wodarg from
Schleswig-Holstein in Germany staring questioning lethality of the SARS-Cov2 and methodology
of calculating mortality rates not based on scientific principle of random testing following
distribution of age and locales of population at large and acquiring sample of minimum 7% (22
millions tested in US ) of entire population a week to be a representative sample of pandemic
development and population response to it including infection rates, recovery and death
rates.
Such or similar statistical modeling of flu pandemic produces average mortality rate of
0.1% while locally and within old age groups it can be much higher even near 1% similar to
current numbers for Coronavirus calculated using not random sample but mostly volunteer,
higher probability of infection sample groups in hospitals or aware of being potentially
exposed to virus in US, in the range only of about 50,000 total to date, far less than
anything that would scientifically provide mortality rate with any meaningful statistical
confidence.
Glasgow scientists study between 2013-2017 found between 7% and 14% percent admitted to
hospitals with respiratory problems had been infected with coronavirus among many other
identified viruses like flu, rhino and unidentified viruses.
Additional points were raised about what turned out to be internal research purposed
Coronavirus test frantically adopted by WHO.
The test itself coming from Berlin's Charite hospital that was targeting original SARS-Cov
of 2002-2004 epidemic (not SARS-Cov2 ) to see if contagion was spread in Germany.
And hence it is not entirely clear how many false positive results are coming from the
fact that original SARS-Cov already spread around the world (documented in 29 countries) and
exists in many communities controlled but not completely eradicated by newly acquired
immunity to SARS-Cov.
CDC and corporate labs in US are allowed using their own tests often classified or
patented making correct interpretation of those tests by doctors and public likely
incompatible, extremely difficult sometimes nearly impossible to interpret adding to
confusion.
All of those serious questions combined with utter lack of desperately needed funding for
medical research and remediation is scandalous and under circumstances uncalled for and
detrimental to society while the $3 trillion corporate bailout in itself questions entire
pandemic narrative as supposedly calamitous of biblical proportions supposedly justifying
complete shutting down of economy and society under authoritarian extra constitutional
rules.
People must be rational by scientifically analyzing hard data and apply analysis of
scientific material whatever outcome and not succumb to anxiety or panic based on fate in
judgments or predictions of corrupted fraudulent authorities including corporate medical
authorities who serve only class interests- they surely ain't the working class interests and
have no concern for public health.
"The number of idiots everywhere on the Internet proclaiming the following:
1) The virus won't prove to be any more dangerous than ordinary flu..."
Yeah sure, we should have just shut up and believed...
Russia interfered in the election
Russia invaded Crimea
Russia invaded Georgia
Iran is making nuclear bombs
The Skripals were poisoned by Russian agents
Assad is using chemical weapons
Saddam has weapons of mass destruction
"etc, etc., ad nauseum.
I could go on and on. The number of people who just *have to have an opinion* is staggering.
And they'll argue that they're right until the cows come home."
@99 Michael Weddington
"The virus deniers here remind me of the global warming deniers."
Why not holocaust deniers? In fact, since you didn't say holocaust deniers you must be an
antisemite holocaust denier nazi, right? It's not like you two are at CNN's website, you're
in the alternative media, where we actually questions things instead of just having blind
faith.
jackrabbit @33 -- "Coronavirus Drives the U.S. and China Deeper Into Global Power Struggle"
I would rephrase that to "US uses coronavirus to deepen global power struggle against
China"
NYT -- "These officials warn that a fast-growing China, under Mr. Xi's increasingly
authoritarian rule, seeks military, economic and technological domination over the United
States and its allies."
What weasel-speak! Repeating a big enough lie often enough, and you get distracted
citizens to fall in line behind you for when you launch a sneak attack on China. This is
nothing but a case of projection by parties who are themselves seeking to dominate the world,
the better to eat other people's lunches.
More than 250,000 people are hospitalized for pneumonia annually in the US. The mortality
rate for pneumonia in the US population (all ages) is 15.1 deaths per 100,000.
An estimated 50,000 Americans die of pneumonia annually (137/DAY). 7500 Americans per day die
of all causes.
In Lombardy, the precrisis total ICU capacity was approximately 720 beds (2.9% of total
hospital beds at a total of 74 hospitals); these ICUs usually have 85% to 90% occupancy
during the winter months. The number of intensive care units has dropped by half over the
last 20 years, dropping from the highest to the lowest number of beds per capita in Europe to
around 230 per 100,000 inhabitants (23 , 000 beds in lombardi -700 icu beds) with population
of 10 million
The US has 15% ICU based on total hospital beds and runs at 60-77% capacity depending on
hospital size (higher in winter months)
The United States has 25 ICU beds per 100 000 people (75,000), as compared with 5
-7 per 100 000 in the United Kingdom and Italy
U.S. ventilator capacity exceeds its number of ICU beds, according to data from the
Society of Critical Care Medicine
Tests being used to detect COVID 19 are self validated by the manufacturer. FDA states
they have not review the validation data. There is no reported specificity. A chinese study
showed expanded testing of those with mild symptoms or asymptomatic were false positives.
More testing yields more cases and deaths. Even with influenza only 1% of those who get it
are laboratory tested.
Populations unable to think can not maintain a Democracy and Freedom, and will be doomed
to serfdom. Lock Step will pave the way for the transition.
"... This is specifically about coronavirus testing. In fact, CDC very much screwed up -- its test had a contaminated assay, the negative control, which made it unusable. ..."
By CNN's count, at least 13 states and 13 municipalities in the US have ordered 144,522,931
people to stay home as a result of the pandemic, according to data compiled by CNN using US
Census population estimates.
Update (1324ET): President Trump on Tuesday once again tried to
deny that his administration dropped the ball on the coronavirus response, while saying he
would like to see the country re-open by Easter.
Of course, the CDC's botched handling of the tests has been well-documented, and the fact
that nobody in the administration acting to overule the CDC and start stockpiling tests from
elsewhere might be remembered as one of the administration's biggest screwups in handling the
crisis.
Trump: "We did not screw up."
This is specifically about coronavirus testing. In fact, CDC very much screwed up --
its test had a contaminated assay, the negative control, which made it unusable.
World Health Organization offered us test it had been using in China.
| The truth is always less glamorous than the
perception. And the truth about 9/11 is that it was first and foremost a failure of
bureaucracy.
As early as spring 2000, the CIA had learned that two of the future
hijackers had traveled to Malaysia for an al-Qaeda summit. Both men had U.S. visas yet the
information was never acted on. In California, the pair roomed with an undercover FBI agent. In
Oklahoma, one of them was pulled
over for speeding . Mere days before the attacks, they were hunkered down in Laurel,
Maryland, not far from the National Security Agency's headquarters.
They were never stopped, nor were several of the other soon-to-be hijackers who were cited
for traffic violations and raised eyebrows at flight schools, more Rocky and Mugsy than
SPECTRE. After 9/11, a congressional
investigation found that the attacks could have been prevented were it not for FBI and CIA
ineptitude. According to that and subsequent reports, the agencies had failed to share
information with each other, gotten bogged down in turf wars, and lacked outside-the-box
thinking.
They did this because this is how bureaucracies work. The state isn't some enchanted
repository of our national priorities; it's a sprawling network of individuals, who, like the
rest of us, tend to place their own interests before the common good, show reluctance in the
face of innovation, cling to rote procedure even under extraordinary circumstances, abuse their
power. And just as the predictable failures of the security bureaucracy allowed 9/11 to happen,
so too are the predictable failures of the medical bureaucracy enabling the coronavirus to
spread.
Start with the feds' delayed reaction to the virus's outbreak in Washington State. There,
the first case of COVID-19 in America was confirmed all the way back in January, and an
infectious disease expert in Seattle, Dr. Helen Chu, had an idea. According to the New
York Times , her lab had been using nasal swabs to research the flu; were they to
repurpose the tests, they could check for the coronavirus. The team quickly sought the approval
of the CDC, which kicked them over to the FDA. The FDA then denied their request, citing both
privacy concerns over the swab results and the fact that the labs were not certified for
clinical purposes. After weeks of the agency refusing to budge, the team decided to do that
most American of things: ignore the government. They tested for coronavirus and found a
positive. The bureaucrats promptly told the team to stop; they later relented but only in
part.
Those FDA rules may be in place for good reason -- patient privacy must be protected, labs
must be classified correctly -- but such rationales should quickly fall to the floor when an
epidemic is raging. Because they didn't, Chu's team was forced to waste valuable time. And even
those laboratories approved for clinical work were having a tough go of it. They still had to
apply with the feds for emergency approval to develop their own tests, and were being stymied.
"This virus is faster than the FDA," grumbled one researcher to the Times . So are
turtles with polio. It's worth pointing out that all this transpired well after the government
had declared the coronavirus a public health emergency.
The root of the problem seems to be that the bureaucracy underestimated just how widely the
coronavirus would spread. Initial tests were limited to those who had just returned from China.
Warnings from local officials that the virus was proliferating were ignored. The CDC,
meanwhile, developed its own test, but the kits were quickly determined to be faulty and
retracted. Precious weeks slipped by. Had measures been implemented, had people started social
distancing earlier and the infected been identified and quarantined faster, the coronavirus
could have been better contained. Instead the FDA tried to control the process, only to find
that it couldn't. Private labs were brought in too late and struggled to meet demand, forcing
them to ration tests. It wasn't until last week that the FDA started
permitting companies to market tests without federal blessing, though they still must get
the agency's approval within two weeks.
The process remains hamstrung by that most bureaucratic of problems: lack of coordination.
Only whereas prior to 9/11 it was agencies failing to coordinate with each other, now it's the
government failing to coordinate the supply chain. The labs, the medical providers, the supply
manufacturers -- all need to be in harmony in order to develop tests and distribute badly
needed equipment. Instead hospitals warn of
ventilator shortages . Masks are running dangerously low, with Vice President Mike Pence
announcing only last
weekend that the government had at last placed an order for hundreds of millions more. A
run on supplies following the FDA's belated easing of restrictions on private labs caused
shortages,
according to the Wall Street Journal . Tom Rogan at the Washington Examiner
reports that pallets of medical equipment are sitting unused in warehouses because the FDA
hasn't loosened its inspection protocols .
Contrast all this with South Korea, which
streamlined its medical bureaucracy following the MERS outbreak in 2015. There, officials
sounded the alarm in January and
one week later a private lab had developed a test. Today, about
10,000 South Koreans are tested daily , many of them at drive-through diagnosis centers,
compared to just a small fraction of that number in the United States.
Yes, the fish rots from the head down. Donald Trump's complacent reaction to the virus set a
terrible example. His pronouncement that the outbreak was "like a miracle, it will disappear"
now sounds insane. Yet the president can also only reach so far down into the bureaucracy; some
of those gears need to align on their own. And they clearly failed to do so. This also can't be
blamed on a lack of funding, given that Trump's supposed cuts to the medical bureaucracy
never
actually happened . Amid a massive federal budget and trillion-dollar deficits, we're
paying more than enough to expect the government to do better than this.
I know we've convinced ourselves that the country would run better if only the damned
libertarians would get out of the way, but it may be that the real problems are less trite than
that. And one of them is clearly that the government has mummified itself in its own red tape.
This happened despite the bright minds running its departments, human genome pioneer Francis
Collins at the NIH and the oncologist Stephen Hahn at the FDA. So now the bureaucracy is taking
a more deregulatory approach, lifting roadblocks to private labs,
easing restrictions on trucking,
lifting barriers to telehealth. They're about two months too late. Those early weeks were
critical and the feds spent them methodically tripping over their own banana peels.
After 9/11, the nation consoled itself by establishing a new government agency with a fancy
name, the Department of Homeland Security. Anyone who's ever talked to a DHS employee knows the
confusion and bureaucratic jostling that reigned there for years. Instead of doing the same,
once the coronavirus has passed, Congress should take a cue from another post-September 11
authority: the 9/11 Commission. Establish a body to investigate the government's blunders.
Mimic South Korea and clear away the clutter. Because this time the costs of bureaucracy aren't
just abstract notions of productivity and GDP; they're human lives. about the author
Matt Purple is the managing editor of The American Conservative . emailleave a comment
US President Donald Trump has finally given a date for when he would like America to at
least partially reopen after the Covid-19 shutdown: April 12. Otherwise, he argued, the
depression would cause far more deaths than the virus. "I would love to have the country
opened up and just raring to go by Easter," Trump said on Tuesday during a Fox News virtual
town hall.
We have to get our country back to work. Our country wants to go back to work.
This follows his remarks on Monday night at the White House press briefing, when he would
not name a date, but said he was debating loosening the restrictions in the coming weeks in
order to prevent a complete economic collapse of the US.
Anxiety and depression from the economic crisis would cause deaths "in far
greater numbers than we're talking about with regard to the virus," Trump argued.
The US is currently on Day 8 of the government's "15 days to stop the spread "
program, with tens of millions of Americans either working from home or furloughed – some
without pay – to encourage " social distancing."
A $2 trillion financial relief package was proposed by the Senate with the intention of
sending cash payments to Americans to make up for income lost due to the shutdown. It was
blocked by Senate Democrats on Sunday and again on Monday, however, as the House Democrats
sought to push their own proposal, which included a laundry list of policy priorities unrelated
to the pandemic.
On the morning of March 11, US author Kurt Eichenwald tweeted
As I said, @ GOPLeader – and other GOPrs – were told in a political
consultants memo to start using name "Chinese Virus" as part of some stupid political
strategy.
Everyone: Go to McCarthy's twitter feed and ask "How can we trust GOP when you dont even
know the disease's name?
And just as expected, over the next few days government officials and politicians, including
the respected President of the United States, started using the term "Chinese Virus".
This usage is against the new naming convention released by the WHO in 2015.
Dr Keiji Fukuda, Assistant Director-General for Health Security at WHO said in 2015
regarding the new naming convention, "We've seen certain disease names provoke a backlash
against members of particular religious or ethnic communities, create unjustified barriers to
travel, commerce and trade, and trigger needless slaughtering of food animals. This can have
serious consequences for peoples' lives and livelihoods."
Unfortunately, the political strategy has succeeded. Instead of talking about how absolutely
incompetent the US response has been, the talking point has been shifted to Americans fighting
over whether its right to call it Chinese Virus, with one side saying it stigmatises innocent
Asians and instigates hate crime, and the other claiming its a liberal PC agenda.
This, coupled with the spread of fake news regarding how China "covered it up for weeks",
(which I wrote about here )
has successfully diverted anger away from the US government and shifted the blame to China.
For good measure, a short recap of the US's incompetence:
Censorship and misinformation (which Americans claim China is doing)
"- USA classified all discussion related to preparation for the virus;
"- suppression of testing;
"- failure to prepare despite urgent warnings;
"- blaming China for US/West lack of preparation (they have sufficient info);
"- failure to acknowledge and implement treatment;
"- rush of aid to Wall Street and corporations while slow-walking money to ordinary people
(will we ever see that money?).!!"
Jackrabbit@15
It is not clear what you are trying to communicate. But I assume that you are arguing that
"the Crisis is fake."
The 'reasons' that you give are not reasons at all- far from proving that the crisis is fake
they are simply features of the crisis itself.
Far from being fake the crisis is as plain as day. While there may be debate over whether
or not the disease is exaggerated, even falsified and nothing more than another seasonal
virus, the crisis, internationally and locally is obviously real.
And the proof of this is that millions of people are not working or working from home, the
streets are empty in the cities, the healthcare systems are dangerously overstrained, there
is an obvious need to devise food distribution networks and to substitute alternatives for
reliance on the marketplace to make decisions and the invisible hand to govern. And thousands
are dying-which is very real.
All these things are real. Much more real than your irresponsible claim (@33) that
'inexpensive Chloroquine' will treat the problem. You don't know that, just as I don't know
that it won't-though the weight of opinion is against what you advise which might well, in
the unlikely event that anyone takes you seriously, prove to be fatal.
Why is it that I feel like all leaders at Municipal, State, Provincial, Regional, and Federal
levels in whatever country should watch Governor Andrew Cuomo's daily briefings? Why
do I feel it's required viewing for the length of the pandemic? Why is it I feel like all
leaders should cover the pandemic as thoroughly and efficiently as he's covering it? And I'm
not even a big fan of the Cuomos! Only the truth matters to me, not personalities. If he's
doing it right; I don't care who it is!
You probably missed that ALL NYS residents (over 19 million people) have been ordered to
stay home. An unnecessary measure when the virus can be treated effectively.
And if you're sick, you're told to stay home until/unless it worsens, which allows the
virus to progress to the point where treatment with inexpensive Chloroquine is less
effective.
I would point out that China is doing both lockdowns and extreme tracking.
South Korea is doing extreme tracking/testing with no lockdowns.
The US is doing lockdowns with no tracking and "voluntary" testing - it seems most of
the West is also doing lockdowns but without the China/South Korea extreme tracking.
Russia has been very aggressive from the start with extreme tracking but hasn't had any
lockdowns yet.
The economic consequences of lockdowns in the US - I've noted before - are going to be
extreme in the US because of its high cost of living and highly complex, interdependent
economic value chains.
Secondly, China has both high savings rates (albeit skewed by income inequality) as well
as much lower cost of living. Some interesting details TAMU study - including that
Chinese households had more assets in total than US households... in 2010!
Countries can't simply lock down their societies to defeat coronavirus, the World Health
Organization's top emergency expert said on Sunday, adding that public health measures are
needed to avoid a resurgence of the virus later on.
"What we really need to focus on is finding those who are sick, those who have the virus,
and isolate them, find their contacts and isolate them," Mike Ryan said in an interview on the
BBC's Andrew Marr Show.
"The danger right now with the lockdowns ... if we don't put in place the strong public
health measures now, when those movement restrictions and lockdowns are lifted, the danger is
the disease will jump back up."
Much of Europe and the United States have followed China and other Asian countries and
introduced drastic restrictions to fight the new coronavirus, with most workers told to work
from home and schools, bars, pubs and restaurants being closed.
In one extreme, we have Spain and France. This is the timeline of measures for Spain:
On Thursday, 3/12, the President dismissed suggestions that the Spanish authorities had been
underestimating the health threat.
On Friday, they declared the State of Emergency.
On Saturday, measures were taken:
People can't leave home except for key reasons: groceries, work, pharmacy, hospital, bank
or insurance company (extreme justification)
Specific ban on taking kids out for a walk or seeing friends or family (except to take
care of people who need help, but with hygiene and physical distance measures)
All bars and restaurants closed. Only take-home acceptable.
All entertainment closed: sports, movies, museums, municipal celebrations
Weddings can't have guests. Funerals can't have more than a handful of people.
Mass transit remains open
On Monday, land borders were shut.
Some people see this as a great list of measures. Others put their hands up in the air and
cry of despair. This difference is what this article will try to reconcile.
France's timeline of measures is similar, except they took more time to apply them, and they
are more aggressive now. For example, rent, taxes and utilities are suspended for small
businesses.
Those disbursements to wage earners are vital for the social cohesion to remain in place.
I thought Tulsi Gabbard championing that minimum basic income strategy was essential as
well.
I empathies totally with USians that are trapped in the vulgar exploitative nightmare
of the usury in that country . Debt Jubilee for all under $100,000 income would be a
start. But that might create a vulgar backlash as well.
The naked ferocity of capitalism in the USA is truly a fearsome thing.
"... By mid-February, it was clear that certain drugs and anti-virals were effective. It was important to have widespread tests so that these drugs could be administered early, especially to vulnerable populations. Yet weeks later, the West (especially USA) was still unprepared to test. ..."
The real danger was always in the possibility that the healthcare system is overwhelmed.
Then you get large numbers of unnecessary deaths.
So a country needs to flatten the curve. The best way to do that is to close the
schools as soon as community spread is detected. In the West, this should've been done in
early February - it wasn't.
By mid-February, it was clear that certain drugs and anti-virals were effective. It
was important to have widespread tests so that these drugs could be administered early,
especially to vulnerable populations. Yet weeks later, the West (especially USA) was still
unprepared to test.
There didn't need to be a crisis or a panic. But a CRISIS! is something that is
politically useful: to direct hate against China; to provide extraordinary support to
favored interests like Banks and Wall Street and Boeing.
In addition, it seems that USA/Trump was hoping that remdesivir, developed by Gilead
Sciences, would be the (expensive) drug of choice to treat Covid-19.
There is a saying the you fight the war with the army you have, not with the army you want.
Notable quotes:
"... Ok. Let me start by stating that I am not a "staunch" Trump supporter. However, I just really despise the constant visceral negative, hatred towards our Country's President. ..."
"... As I am sure you are aware, it is a tremendously difficult job, especially in today's crisis. I would think it would be better serve of your time and efforts to be constructive and optimistic, and hopeful. Rather than pinpointed every single steps and missteps he makes. He is certainly no perfect - but his goal is the same as all of ours: to defeat this virus in the best manner possible with the resources available. ..."
"... For the entire Trump Presidency it was all about the stock market. So, here we are. ..."
20 hours ago Here is a 1 minute 22 second video timeline of Trump's amazing handling of the coronavirus.
Please play this.
It will take less than two minutes of your time.
One missing key quote is a statement Trump made bragging about having natural talent coupled with a proclamation that he could
have been a scientist instead of president.
More Questions:
And where are the tests? The ventilators?
Who at the CDC or in the administration insisted the US needs to develop its own test instead of using an accurate test the rest
of the world was already using?
What about Trump increasing sanction pressure on Iran in the midst of the biggest global humanitarian crisis since world war II?
And what about Trump's rating his administration's handling of this as "excellent".
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
njbr 20 hrs
The dumb-asses in DC still don't get it. "Top" leaders crowding around a single microphone in a stage no larger than a public
restroom. Working toward a 1 time $1200 check that probably wont be issued/delivered for another couple weeks. What about the weeks
after that--are they going to spend the next couple weeks going around about the next check?? Has the production of ventilators actually
been accelerated-who could tell from what has been said? Why are nurses and doctors in my area asking the public for donations of
PPE at the very beginning of the serious phase? What happens when the doctors and nurses start tipping over? Two partially ready
hospital ships may help in one spot each on the coast, but what about everywhere else? Has anyone even checked on the production
capacity for the maybe helpful malaria medicine--has anyone been directed to begin proactive super-production of this product? On
and on.
DeeDee3
20 hrs
hard to prove deliberate neglect when you eliminate all of the evidence. No testing means "no virus" and sadly supported the hoax
theory.
Another doc died in the city today. ER's are unprotected. what conclusion can we draw from all of this?
Zardoz
20 hrs
Thousands will die because of his incompetence... and his followers will blame the Chinese
egilkinc
20 hrs
There should be a tracker of the number of cases [among medical personnle] in the US along with this
Sechel
20 hrs
Oh my g-d. This is excellent! I think Trump has learned some bad lessons from Goebbels. Repeat the lie and repeat it often and
people will take your version of events. This really serves to correct the record! Good work!
PecuniaNonOlet
20 hrs
And yet there will be an avalanche of Trump supporters defending the idiot. It is truly beyond me.
michiganmoon
20 hrs
Actually, Trump should resign and give the GOP a chance this November.
Had Trump not downplayed this and had tests ready, he could have played on a loop Biden on January 31st saying travel restrictions
from Wuhan were racist and xenophobic.
thesaint0013
20 hrs
Ok. Let me start by stating that I am not a "staunch" Trump supporter. However, I just really despise the constant visceral negative,
hatred towards our Country's President.
As I am sure you are aware, it is a tremendously difficult job, especially in today's crisis.
I would think it would be better serve of your time and efforts to be constructive and optimistic, and hopeful. Rather than pinpointed
every single steps and missteps he makes. He is certainly no perfect - but his goal is the same as all of ours: to defeat this virus
in the best manner possible with the resources available.
To criticize previous tweets, interviews, and depict his flaws and errors
does not help the common goal. The nature of some of the questions posed to him during the press conferences should be a bit more
respectful and again, it doesn't serve any positive outcome to try and "catch" him in a lie, and how he may have said something that
was not factual or false.
Again, he's not perfect and neither are anyone of us. However he is our President and we should support
his and all of our common goal to defeat this virus.
Russell
J 20 hrs
Not making excuses for Trump at all but he/we have people who are specialists and are responsible for being ready at all times
for something like this and are responsible for being on the look out for this. Somebody should have came forward, even as a whistleblower.
I've been aware for about 2 months now.
Thank you WWW.PEAKPROSPERITY.COM, MISH and WWW.ZEROHEDGE.COM
This was an epic failure of Trump, his administration and America in general.
ghoffa
20 hrs
Hi, @MishTalk @Mish
I wanted to sincerely thank you MISH from my whole extended family. I have been reading you since 2007 when Ron Paul removed the
scales from my eyes on the Fed and govt., Jekyll Island book, the "financial markets" (all modern day money changers). Every picture
I see of Fed chairpersons, their eyes look dead black sharks eyes (to quote a famous book which I subscribe, the eyes are the windows
to the soul).
In addition our mob style duolopoly govt and for the most part complicit MSM (all with significant influencing billionaire ownership
to control the news - easily searched). I've learned so much from this blog and the many commentors in this space ( a personal fav
is @Stuki ) . Nothing short of brilliant and reminds me of my fav news source Zerohedge and it's articles and commentors.
A special thanks for pointing us to Chris Martenson (peakprosperity.com) as my wife and I have watched every day his free daily
videos since JAN @24th and our extended family is as prepared as we can be. God help us all with what's coming.
For those who haven't watched it, Dr. Martenson has a great 3 min video on exponential growth on YTube. Search his name and exponential.
It will help you prepare for what our govt knows is coming in enourmous exponential growth in fatalities. Even knowing, it will be
an emotional thing to prepare for. Prepping home supplies is one thing, prepping emotionally is also important per Dr. Martenson.
HCWs be damned.
As this impacts people personally, I expect insider leaks to come from many fronts. We're working with neighbors to get prepared
as we're all on our own now as the money changers (evil) bail out the money changers (evil) amidst a system that is so debt leveraged
it can't likely be bailed out. "everything's a nail and the Fed has a hammer".
Lastly this brings a famous quote to mind as the people rise up against corrupt govt, corp bailouts after stock buy backs, etc.
Let alone the monsters upon monsters creating lab viruses (regardless of the source of this virus), and unregulated GMOs changing
the fabric of life.....
"All it takes for evil to prevail is for good people to do nothing". Margaret Mead
G
QE2Infinity
20 hrs
Come on! First off, anyone can be made to look bad by taking snippets out of context and stringing them together. That said, Trump
does tend towards braggadocio. If that is off putting to you, he can be annoying. I much prefer a transparent fool to the more sly
variety that plays the part well while sticking a knife in your back.
But let's be honest here. The president can do very little. The bureaucracy of the government is a jobs program for the less ambitious
and politically inclined. It's staffed with incompetent bureaucrats that show up, surf the web and may get around to an hour or two
of honest work. Public unions guarantee they can't be fired.
Obama converted the CDC into a PC jobs program for lefties, just like he converted NASA into a Muslim outreach program.
May one ask: why is a self proclaimed libertarian screaming for more government action? Wouldn't it be great if one of the outcomes
of this crisis is that local communities became more self reliant and more self sufficient!
Sechel
20 hrs
that's from a website called therecount.com looks interesting.
Greggg
20 hrs
For the entire Trump Presidency it was all about the stock market. So, here we are.
The graphic at the end of the video already looks out of date and shows how rapid the spread has been. For March 2020 it shows
5,002 cases in the US (and counting) but right now I'm seeing 24,137 cases.
So much for "in a couple of days the 15 is going to be down close to zero".
njbr
20 hrs
What can the President do?
Force and organize the production of necessary goods.
Act as impartial hub for the distribution of new and stocked items.
Force/fund the emergency super-production of even possibly helpful items such as the malarial drug.
Turn every possible research dollar onto the research into the disease, it's treatments and vaccines.
Fund and distribute tests. Make a way to track the progress of the disease, as opposed to waiting for regional medical systems
collapse under load.
Activate whatever resources are possible to pre-position and set-up field hospitals now.
Develop uniform best-practices for quarantine and treatment.
Prepare the population for the realistic probability of multiple months of the crisis.
Mish Editor
19 hrs
May one ask: why is a self proclaimed libertarian screaming for more government action? Wouldn't it be great if one of the outcomes
of this crisis is that local communities became more self reliant and more self sufficient!
I said what I would do
I would remove tariffs. I would not have had them in the first place.
I would expect our president to act to increase supplies not insist on Made in America.
I would expect our president to behave like an emphatic human being, not a total moron
Mish
Editor
19 hrs
Trump did not Drain the Swamp. He IS the swamp
Mish Editor
19 hrs
Anyone who still supports this President's actions is a TDS-inflicted fool.
Jim
Bob 19 hrs
I've followed Mish for ~ 12 years online and on the radio for brilliant economic analysis. Lately his work has been undermined
by irrational political opinion. Mish has turned into Krugman. I won't be back.
abend237-04
19 hrs
The Donald is obviously afflicted with the same narcissistic megalomania prerequisite for a successful run at any elective office
above County Coroner, anywhere in this country.
That said, he can apparently read a graph, and he's right: The two drug combination of Hydroxychloroquine and Azithromycin are working
to treat this damn thing, BUT:
It is, indeed, not a Covid-19 preventative.
If you get it, and you dink around at home too long waiting for improvement, arriving at ICU needing ventilation leaves you with
roughly the odds of Russian roulette of surviving, especially if you're older.
Lacking testing, the only remaining means available to knock the transmission rate down quickly is social distancing/lockdown. But,
enough of that prevention can leave us wishing we were dead anyway.
Unfortunately, all the college kids jamming the bars and beaches is setting the stage for continued exponential growth by hordes
of asymptomatic spreaders.
The march of folly continues.
I like what I'm seeing of Cuomo. He'd be a good guy to have in the room in a serious fight; This qualifies.
DBG8489
19 hrs
As someone who hates all politicians, there is zero love lost between Trump and myself. I had hopes when he was elected that he
would make a difference but it was clear based on how he looked after his private meeting with Obama on inauguration day that he
was in over his head.
Having said that, I will say this:
From at least the "major" state level up, it would appear that not one single elected official or the top advisors and bureaucrats
who work for them have shown anything but complete and utter failure in their handling of this emergency.
You have senators selling off piles of stock while either saying nothing or telling the rest of us that it was bullshit. And trust
me - they were not the only ones. If anyone cares to investigate, they will likely find this problem rampant. Elected officials should
not even be allowed to trade stocks when they control the entire economy - not even through alleged "blind trusts" - it's bullshit.
But that's a conversation for another time.
You have congressional reps and senators blaming each other and/or the other party and passing laws and bailouts without even
reading the bills they are passing.
You have the Treasury and the Fed printing money and throwing it at every hole that opens up without the slightest regard for
what the unintended consequences of those actions may entail.
You have governments of the "major" states (CA, NY, NJ...etc) who know they can't simply print money being exposed using any extra
money they had (along with taxes based on tourism that have now disappeared) to fund God knows what now demanding that everyone else
pony up to pay for their failure to plan...
The lack of leadership in the major states and at the Federal level is abysmal ACROSS THE BOARD.
And that includes members of BOTH parties and nearly every single bureaucratic agency involved.
You can single Trump out if you want, but he's not alone. He's just an easy target because 49% of the population hated him before
this started.
njbr
18 hrs
....Top health officials first learned of the virus's spread in China on January 3, US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex
Azar said Friday. Throughout January and February, intelligence officials' warnings became more and more urgent, according to the
Post -- and by early February, much of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the CIA's intelligence reports were
dedicated to warnings about Covid-19.
All the while, Trump downplayed the virus publicly, telling the public the coronavirus "is very well under control in our country,"
and suggesting warm weather would neutralize the threat the virus poses....
...The administration did begin taking some limited action about a month after Azar says the administration first began receiving
warnings, blocking non-citizens who had been to China in the last two weeks from entering the country on February 3 -- a move public
experts have argued at best bought the US time to ramp up its testing capabilities, which it did not use, and at worst had no beneficial
effects at all.
Trump finally assembled a task force to address the virus, putting Vice President Mike Pence in charge of the effort on February
26, and declared a national emergency on March 13. And, just this week -- nearly three months after first receiving warnings from
his intelligence officials -- the president's public tone about the crisis shifted: "I've always known this is a real -- this is
a pandemic," he said Tuesday as he admitted, "[the virus is] not under control for any place in the world."....
Realist
18 hrs
I have been watching political leaders in my own country get on television daily. They have all done a great job of informing
the public about the dangers of this virus. They have all relied on the experts to relay information to the public about what the
government is doing, and what individuals should be doing. This is true at the national, regional, and local levels.
In addition businesses have been sending out emails, radio announcements and tv messages explaining what they are doing in regard
to this pandemic.
In fact, I am amazed at what a good job everyone is doing.
I am also watching what is happening in the US. Every US state governor and city mayor I have seen on tv has done a wonderful
job of presenting the facts to the public and provided instructions as to what they are doing and what the public should be doing.
Then there is the gong show that is Trump. I could not imagine that anyone could be as bad as he is; months of lies, denials,
suppression of the truth, and a complete and utter lack of preparation for something he was warned about many times. Denying one
day that the virus was a pandemic; only to claim the very next day that he had known it was a pandemic for months; and then the very
next day say that no one could have seen this coming; and finally saying that his response to the virus rates a 10 out of 10.
Worst President ever. Sadly, many, many Americans are going to suffer and die because America had this moron in charge.
Mish keeps referring to worldometer to get stats from. Their numbers seem to match up with numbers I see in my own country and
in the US.
Disturbingly, today, the mortality rate for closed cases ticked up 1% to 12%. 12978 deaths and 94674 recovered. That is not the
direction I expected it to go.
daveyp
17 hrs
You get what you vote for. To have such a malignant narcissist of such profoundly limited intellectual honesty and capacity "leading"
your nation through this is truly tragic for your country. Even the hideously vile ultimate Washington insider Hilary would have
done a better job.
truthseeker
17 hrs
Mish I agree with much of the criticism of Trump, yet had he done everything you and others suggest, there is this implied assumption
that everything would have worked out perfectly. You know I am impressed the way the country seems to be uniting to such a great
degree, that I think there is at least some hope for our country's future though there are huge challenges that lay ahead absolutely!
abend237-04
17 hrs
I will now proceed, once again, to bitch about the root cause of our current pandemic, which is causing many to experience cosmic
scale frustration with The Donald, which I share:
Civilization has now been hit squarely in the head with three killer coronavirus outbreaks in 18 years, yet still has no unified
global new viral antigen detection system. We could have if our world "leaders" would make it happen.
Local supercomputers, however massive, will never crack this nut, but the billions of powerful, web-accessible smartphones could
if linked and used by a parallelized, intelligent scheduler to raise the alarm when a new antibody/pathogen is discovered in human
blood anywhere.
Such a system could have lifted the burden from a lonely doctor struggling to raise the alarm in Wuhan, before Covid-19 killed
him, and placed it squarely in front of disease control experts, worldwide. It can be done; We must do it.
Sars cov-3/4/5/6/7/8/9/n could kill us all if we don't.
"... 1) Pompeo and Grenell reportedly arguing that coronavirus has created window of opportunity for a direct strike on a weak and divided Iran. ..."
"... Deputy Health Minister Alireza Raisian has criticized the #UK for not delivering millions of masks #Iran bought in preparations ahead of #Covid19 outbreak. The London govt. refused to deliver them citing US sanctions! Note that Germany took supplies meant for Switzerland, The US via the Italian Mafia (I suppose) gets masks from Bergamo. etc. ..."
I just think that the US "Intelligence" and most of the US Administration just haven't got it. I suppose when you are waiting
for the "rapture" anything that can add to the chaos is to be included.
1) Pompeo and Grenell reportedly arguing that coronavirus has created window of opportunity for a direct strike on a weak
and divided Iran. They were arguing about the severity of the strike.
2) Deputy Health Minister Alireza Raisian has criticized the #UK for not delivering millions of masks #Iran bought in preparations
ahead of #Covid19 outbreak. The London govt. refused to deliver them citing US sanctions! Note that Germany took supplies
meant for Switzerland, The US via the Italian Mafia (I suppose) gets masks from Bergamo. etc. Wonderful show of
world-wide solidarity.
Pompeo should hold his "rapture" in his hot little hand and .....
But she sees this China-bashing as mostly a political reaction:
In reality these people are rallying behind the campaign to blame China for the health
crisis they're now facing because they understand that otherwise the blame will land
squarely on the shoulders of their president, who's running for re-election this year.
instead of a deliberate Deep-State strategy (which is my view).
We can argue who created the virus (I'm still looking for any rebuttal to the Chinese
claim that USA must be the source because it has all five strains of the virus), but the
Empire's gaming of the virus outbreak seems very clear to me.
U.S. intelligence agencies were issuing ominous, classified warnings in January and
February about the global danger posed by the coronavirus while President Trump and
lawmakers played down the threat and failed to take action that might have slowed the
spread of the pathogen, according to U.S. officials familiar with spy agency reporting.
The intelligence reports didn't predict when the virus might land on U.S. shores or
recommend particular steps that public health officials should take, issues outside the
purview of the intelligence agencies. But they did track the spread of the virus in China,
and later in other countries, and warned that Chinese officials appeared to be minimizing
the severity of the outbreak.
If the spy services were really concerned about the issue why did they not warn the
public? Instead of leaking new idiotic fairytales they could have leaked a warning about the
pandemic. Instead we were given this:
If the intelligence services had taken the pandemic seriously they could have warned the
public via their countless stenographers in the media. Instead they kept the media filled
with false anti-Russian stories and told Trump that the Chinese are lying which they were in
fact not.
Trump of course would have not have believed the intelligence reports anyway. Why would
he? The FBI and CIA have for three years tried to get him impeached. They created Russiagate
based on a fake dossier. They lied to get FISA warrants to spy on his campaign. When
Russiagate finally fell apart the CIA sent a fake 'whistleblower' to launch Ukrainegate. In
Trump's place there is no reason to believe a word of whatever any of the 'intelligence
officials' say.
The intelligence services failed to issue effective warnings. But they were not the only
ones. All institution in 'western' countries and their leaders have lacked in their
preparation for a larger outbreak.
China warned us early on. The WHO was informed in late December. On January 3 the director
of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention was informed by his Chinese
colleagues. After China recognized that the new SARS-CoV-2 virus indeed jumped from person to
person it took radical measures to get a grip on the epidemic and those measures have worked
well. China has only 3,255 death in a nation of 1.4 billion people. Today all checkpoints
were removed from Wuhan city and life there is slowly turning back to normal.
Since when did the CIA, the NSA, the DIA and the rest of the much vaunted 17 alphabet-named
intel agencies in the US ever provide much in the way of "intelligence"?
The CIA famously failed to foresee the revolution that felled Iranian shah Mohammed Reza
Pahlavi and the role Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini played in it, in 1979. The CIA also failed
to foresee the downfall of Communist govts in eastern Europe and the Soviet Union in 1989
and 1991. Instead the CIA spends US taxpayer millions on brainwashing and torture programs
like MK ULTRA and their like in universities and institutions in the US and Canada (McGill
University) from the 1950s onwards.
The current activities of the CIA and FBI in promoting anti-Russia / anti-China
propaganda and propaganda aimed at destabilising these and other nations that don't bow to
the US are equivalent to a global witch-hunt hysteria. The CIA's patron saint should be
17th-century English self-proclaimed Witchfinder General Matthee Hopkins. Senator Eugene
McCarthy probably wouldn't come close to this fanatic.
I thought it was well known that U.S. intelligence services don't exist to warn the public
about possible dangers from abroad. They exist to create dangers abroad and at home.
"The U.S. intelligence services fear to come under questioning for not raising enough
warning about the novel coronavirus pandemic."
Fear being questioned? U.S. intelligence agencies don't fear being questioned--I thought
this was well-known too. It's going to be harder and harder to write articles from the
perspective of being in favor of the U.S. regime using martial law on us without completely
forgetting what the U.S. regime stands for in the first place.
The Corbett Report released a video today about martial law. In it, he shows us a German
document from 2013, entitled:
"Information from the German government – Report on risk analysis in civil protection
2012"
"In it, frightening similarities with what is currently happening can be seen – in
particular by explicitly mentioning the "SARS coronavirus (CoV)". The scenario presented,
in which the spread, course, duration, mortality etc. are described, goes as far as to make
a drastic restriction of fundamental rights necessary.
The scenario states in this respect:"
"The competent authorities, first of all the public health authorities and primarily the
public health officers, must take measures to prevent communicable diseases. The IfSG
[Infektionsschutzgesetz] allows, among other things, restrictions of basic rights, such as
the right to inviolability of the home. Within the framework of necessary protective
measures, the fundamental right of personal freedom and the freedom of assembly can also be
restricted. In addition to these measures to be ordered directly by the public health
officer, the Federal Ministry of Health can order by statutory order that threatened
sections of the population have to take part in protective vaccinations or other measures
of specific prophylaxis, whereby the right to physical integrity can be restricted".
https://www.globalresearch.ca/coronavirus-new-world-order-something-rotten-state-denmark/5706464
Knowing that b is German, I thought this could be of interest to him;)
"The U.S. intelligence services fear to come under questioning for not raising
enough warning about the novel coronavirus pandemic.
IMO, this is a misreading.
I think a better interpretation is that US media is providing cover for Deep State
officials (including high-level intelligence officials) that gamed the virus response. In
that regard, this is the key phrase:
The intelligence reports didn't predict when the virus might land on U.S. shores or
recommend particular steps that public health officials should take ...
= The intelligence services failed to issue effective warnings."
But we know that they were providing very effective warnings: Senator Richard Burr, who is
Chair of Intel Cmte, WAS getting appropriately dire warnings and acting upon those warnings:
trading stock and telling his closest friends and supporters about the looming pandemic and
the terrible effects it would have.
= "But they were not the only ones. All institution in 'western' countries and their
leaders have lacked in their preparation for a larger outbreak."
Well, we shouldn't over look the fact that the top US health officials are all currently
or formerly military officers:
Head of CDC - Colonel, US Army 1977–1996;
Undersecretary for Health - Admiral, Public Health Service Commissioned Corps;
Surgeon General - Vice Admiral, Public Health Service Commissioned Corps.
I expect that top health officials in other Western countries are also be connected to the
military. These officials "failed us" in the same way that our media "fails
us": they serve the interests of the EMPIRE-FIRST Deep State.
As
cases spike, health officials are saying the battle to contain the virus is lost and are
hunkering down for an onslaught, directing scarce resources where they are needed most to save
lives.
I would say that Germany's testing is far superior
@Marie
to the US. They test a far larger number of people and don't have the restriction of having to
show symptoms before one can get tested. This gives them a larger base of infected so it shows
a lower ratio for deaths/confirmed. Earlier detection will also greatly improve outcomes. The
slope of their new infections is also starting to flatten - unlike the US where it is getting
steeper with each passing day.
These factors are actually a really, really bad warning sign for the evolution of the virus
outbreak within the US. The US, as a fist world country should not have outcomes like a second
world country.
#7.1
COVID-19 infections, but an incredibly low number of deaths and patients in serious
condition. The numbers may be valid but if so, there's an element of luck in Germany's
favor.
@CB
The only country I've seen that has been releasing daily figures on testing is South Korea
and they've been doing it since their first case on 20 Jan 2020. Update 21
Jan 2021 . First confirmed case in Germany was on 28 Jan.
As of 21 Mar:
Germany: confirmed cases 21,854. (population 83 million)
South Korea: confirmed cases 8,799. (population 51 million) Total tests administered
327,599.
So, SK has better contained the internal spread than Germany and has released more
complete information on the imported cases.
At this time, I'm not going to speculate as to why SK's deaths are so much higher than
Germany's. But do note that if Germany's health care for a virus with no cure is so far
superior to SK's, why are there also so few recoveries in Germany - 180 compared to SK's
2,612.
#7.1.2
to the US. They test a far larger number of people and don't have the restriction of
having to show symptoms before one can get tested. This gives them a larger base of
infected so it shows a lower ratio for deaths/confirmed. Earlier detection will also
greatly improve outcomes. The slope of their new infections is also starting to flatten -
unlike the US where it is getting steeper with each passing day.
These factors are actually a really, really bad warning sign for the evolution of the
virus outbreak within the US. The US, as a fist world country should not have outcomes
like a second world country.
"US has 55 million masks" "we should sanitize and reuse them"
China makes N35 masks at the rate of tens of millions per day. They are shipping millions
to other countries around the world. Sinopec even constructed a brand new factory with 12
production lines from scratch in 10 days to manufacture the PP material over a month ago.
Trump bragging about how prescient he was in handling this pandemic.
Lying about China not telling world what was happening for two to three months
despite WHO reports from early January.
He keeps repeating how he acted very early.
Scapegoating China again. What a fucking lying fuckwit.
Still don't know how many or when test kits will come out.
Blaming all problems on previous administration - inherited the deficiencies.
One reporter catches him out on when he knew about China from his public statement on Jan
24.
Watch the following video. Trump knew about the virus at least by Jan 3 (the day it's
genome was published)
out of the reagents to run the tests. So samples can be collected, but may not be
processed. There will be more cover-ups when this becomes generally known. Attention! Forward
fail!
Here's a video of how China ramped up mask production within days of learning about the
COVID-19 infection.
Someone should have the Trumpeter watch this video. He might discover why masks can't be
cleaned and reused.
@supenau who make profits as well. I cannot remember exactly when insider trading for
them became legal but it should be no surprise to anyone paying the slightest bit of attention
that they're ALL doing it. That is one reason, at least in my semi-educated opinion, they did
not go after Trump for emoluments during Shampeachment, because THEY ALL DO IT.
That goes all the way to the White House, no doubt.
up 10 users have voted. --
Only a fool lets someone else tell him who his enemy is. Assata Shakur
Weeks before you had any inkling you were going to lose your job, Senator Kelly Loeffler
was selling off millions of stocks -- and *buying* stock in a teleworking company.
"... "Congress/staff who dumped stocks after private briefings on impending coronavirus epidemic should be investigated and prosecuted for insider trading," ..."
"... "Members of Congress should not be allowed to own stocks." ..."
"... "stomach churning," ..."
"... "For a public servant it's pretty hard to imagine many things more immoral than doing this," ..."
"... "Richard Burr had critical information that might have helped the people he is sworn to protect. But he hid that information and helped only himself." ..."
"... "If you find out about a nation-threatening pandemic and your first move is to adjust your stock portfolio you should probably not be in a job that serves the public interest," ..."
"... "calling for immediate investigations" ..."
"... "for possible violations of the STOCK Act and insider trading laws." ..."
"... Think your friends would be interested? Share this story! ..."
After the sale, NPR
reported
that he told a closed-door meeting of North Carolina business leaders that the virus
actually posed a threat
"akin to the 1918 pandemic."
Burr does not dispute the NPR report.
In a tweet on Saturday, former 2020 presidential candidate and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard called for
criminal investigations.
"Congress/staff who dumped stocks after private briefings on impending
coronavirus epidemic should be investigated and prosecuted for insider trading,"
she wrote.
"Members of Congress should not be allowed to own stocks."
Congress/staff who dumped stocks after private briefings on impending
coronavirus epidemic should be investigated & prosecuted for insider trading (the STOCK Act). It
is illegal & abuse of power. Members of Congress should not be allowed to own stocks.
https://t.co/rbVfJxrk3r
Burr was not the only lawmaker on Capitol Hill to take precautions, it was reported. Fellow
Intelligence Committee member Dianne Feinstein (D-California) and her husband sold off more than a
million dollars of shares in a biotech company five days later, while Oklahoma's Jim Inhofe (R) made a
smaller sale around the same time. Both say their sales were routine.
Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-Georgia) attended a Senate Health Committee briefing on the outbreak on
January 24. The very same day, she began offloading stock, dropping between $1.2 and $3.1 million in
shares over the following weeks. The companies whose stock she sold included airlines, retail outlets,
and Chinese tech firm Tencent.
She did, however, invest in cloud technology company Oracle, and Citrix, a teleworking company
whose value has increased by nearly a third last week, as social distancing measures forced more and
more Americans to work from home. All of Loeffler's transactions were made with her husband, Jeff
Sprecher, CEO of the New York Stock Exchange.
Meanwhile, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (New York) and Ilhan Omar (Minnesota) have joined the clamor of
voices demanding punishment. Ocasio-Cortez
described
the sales as
"stomach churning,"
while Omar reached across the aisle to side
with Fox News' Tucker Carlson in calling for Burr's resignation.
"For a public servant it's pretty hard to imagine many things more immoral than doing this,"
Carlson said during a Friday night monolog.
"Richard Burr had critical information that might have
helped the people he is sworn to protect. But he hid that information and helped only himself."
As of Saturday, there are nearly 25,000 cases of Covid-19 in the US, with the death toll heading
towards 300. Now both sides of the political aisle seem united in disgust at the apparent profiteering
of Burr, Loeffler, and Feinstein.
Right-wing news outlet Breitbart
savaged
Burr for voting against the STOCK Act in 2012, a piece of legislation that would have
barred members of Congress from using non-public information to profit on the stock market. At the
same time, a host of Democratic figures - including former presidential candidates
Andrew Yang
and
Kirsten Gillibrand
- weighed in with their own criticism too.
"If you find out about a nation-threatening pandemic and your first move is to adjust your
stock portfolio you should probably not be in a job that serves the public interest,"
Yang
tweeted on Friday.
If you find out about a nation-threatening pandemic and your first move
is to adjust your stock portfolio you should probably not be in a job that serves the public
interest.
Watchdog group Common Cause has filed complaints with the Justice Department, the Securities and
Exchange Commission and the Senate Ethics Committee
"calling for immediate investigations"
of
Burr, Loeffler, Feinstein and Inhofe
"for possible violations of the STOCK Act and insider trading
laws."
Think your friends would be interested? Share this story!
...Across the United States, the number of reported cases of coronavirus at nursing homes,
assisted living centers and other elder care centers spiked in recent days, with at least 73
facilities in 22 states now reporting infections, according to a review by The Washington Post
of reports from states, local media reports and nursing home announcements.
As of Friday evening, at least 55 coronavirus deaths occurred among people living in
elder care facilities, though the number is probably higher because official counts often omit
a description of the person's last place of residence . That figure represented more than a
quarter of U.S. deaths then attributed to the pandemic, even though fewer than 1 percent of
Americans live in such facilities.
Police stopped and checked 700,000 citizens between 11 and 17 March, 43,000 of whom were
found to have violated the decree, which also ordered the closing of shops, bars,
restaurants, gyms and swimming pools.
One of the most serious cases happened in Sciacca, Sicily, when a man who had tested
positive for Covid-19 was discovered by police while out shopping, despite the strict order
to self-isolate at home. Prosecutors opened an investigation and accused the man of "aiding
the epidemic". If convicted, he could face up to 12 years in prison.
On 10 March a 30-year-old man was stopped by the police in Turin at 2.30am while
soliciting a sex worker.
Police near Venice pressed charges against a priest because he was officiating at a
funeral. Another priest was reported for the same reason in Torre Annunziata in Campania,
together with relatives of the deceased. Funeral services are banned under the decree.
The prosecutor's office in Aosta, in north-west Italy, opened an investigation against a
man for "aggravated attempt to spread the epidemic" because he had not informed his doctors
of suspected coronavirus symptoms before undergoing plastic surgery on his nose. The man
subsequently tested positive for Covid-19.
To put this in perspective: Italy has a population of 60M - so police stopped more than 1 in
100 people in the whole country!
This is not even at China level lockdown.
What will the US do?
Figures refer to specimens tested. Data is updated at noon Mondays through Fridays. The
current report, published on 16 March 2020, includes only consolidated estimates up until
11 March 2020.
In addition to the usual closures and orders to increase hospital capacity, he's also
prohibiting utility providers from turning off power, water, heat etc. for nonpayment.
Today I announced additional actions to prevent the spread of COVID-19 in Maryland. They
may sound extreme, and they will be terribly disruptive, but they are also absolutely
necessary to save the lives of hundreds of thousands of people. Details here: https://t.co/XwwTJot69H
I have ordered the closure of all bars and restaurants in the state, as well as fitness
centers, spas, and theaters, effective at 5:00 p.m. today. The order allows for restaurants
to continue carry-out, drive-thru, and delivery services.
We are marshaling every tool in the arsenal of public health to combat this crisis. I have
issued an omnibus public health order that includes increasing hospital capacity, activating
the Maryland Responds Medical Reserve Corps, & lifting restrictions on healthcare
practitioners.
I am prohibiting utility providers from shutting off any residential customer's service or
charging any residential late fees, and prohibiting Maryland courts from ordering the
eviction of any tenant who can show that their failure to pay rent was the result of
COVID-19.
We are marshaling every tool in the arsenal of public health to combat this crisis. I have
issued an omnibus public health order that includes increasing hospital capacity, activating
the Maryland Responds Medical Reserve Corps, & lifting restrictions on healthcare
practitioners.
Apparently, the reason Trump's comment about the ventilators and respirators
earlier - asking states to try and find their own through their own supply chains, as Trump
said during the press conference - touched such a nerve among the governors is because there's
some kind of nationwide "problem" with supplies, according to Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, who
discussed the issue with the Washington
Post.
"There is a problem with supplies and ventilators," Hogan said. "There's not enough
supplies. The states don't have enough. The federal government doesn't have enough. They're not
getting distributed fast enough. And that's a problem for all of us.
Roche, the Swiss drug company that is one of several companies working with the
administration to increase the supply of tests, has started shipping tests to labs across the
US.
ROCHE STARTS SHIPMENTS OF COVID-19 TESTS TO LABS ACROSS U.S.
ROCHE BEGINS SHIPMENTS OF FIRST 400,000 COVID-19 TESTS TO LABS
ROCHE: PLANS TO SHIP AN ADDED 400,000 TESTS PER WEEK
ROCHE: SHIPPING OF INITIAL 400,000 TEST KITS BEGAN MARCH 13
BTW, I have not seen any comments here like this speculative admission that I am about to
make:
I suspect that I have in fact contracted the dreaded corona virus. It has been making the
rounds in my area. For the past week and a half I have been unusually fatigued and in the
last week I have felt strange sensations in my lungs, and even felt out of breath
occasionally. No fever, sore throat or coughs. Definitely something unusual in my lungs.
I am 50 years old, no medical issues and generally in good health. I would have applied
for a test, but around here they stopped testing anybody but the bad cases that get admitted
to the hospital.
Girlfriend has been coughing for two weeks and even had a bit of a fever at the onset.
If this is not simply an ordinary case of flu or cold, I wonder what the exposure route
would have been.
GF works with disabled people and did a shift with a group of children who were snotty and
coughing right before she got her symptoms.
A little over two weeks ago I attended a weekend sports event in Belgium with many people
from Brussels and Paris also in attendance, cities that were early hits in Europe.
A few days later, I picked up my parents in the airport in Amsterdam after their flight
back from Atlanta. The had been touring the US and had been on a cruise ship from San Diego
to Fort Lauderdale, via Panama and the Caribean.
What really struck me this afternoon, was the realization that a little while ago,
somewhere in January, a good friend of ours suddenly fell ill with a double pneumonia. She
recovered with antibiotics, but afterwards it turned out that she now has pulmonary fibrosis
as a result of that epsiode. This transpired while the corona virus was a thing far away over
the horizon. Now I wonder about it.
Anyway, no panic. Taking my vitamins and minerals and brewing soups with lots of ginger
and garlic.
Kind of worried about my stepdad who is coughing a lot. He says it's just a cold.
Hmmm...
Public health officials in California's state capital region announced this week they have
stopped tracing the contacts of patients diagnosed with the novel coronavirus. They've also
ceased recommending quarantines for residents exposed to people confirmed to have the
virus.
It was a grim recognition of the virus' infiltration -- and is yet another sign of the
detrimental effects of a lack of capability in the U.S. to test people for the deadly
coronavirus as it continues to spread.
"The reason we have to move on is because testing did not occur. We're still able to do
about 20 tests a day," said Dr. Peter Beilenson, director of Sacramento County's Department of
Health Services. "If you really wanted to quarantine and contain the situation, you would have
wanted to know who was positive and quarantine them. Because we never had the tests, it's kind
of a moot point, and the horse is out of the barn."
Sacramento County -- which as of Friday had 17 confirmed cases of COVID-19, including one
death -- instead has begun advising residents to use so-called social distancing measures as a
primary response. That includes asking people and businesses to cancel large gatherings,
warning older people and those with chronic conditions to avoid crowds, and begging the general
public to practice good hygiene.
The move is part of a shift from containment -- where the goal is to track every case of the
disease and end its spread -- to mitigation, which focuses on protecting the most vulnerable
from the effects of a disease that is already widespread throughout the community. County
residents with any sort of illness are being asked to self-isolate until several days after
symptoms resolve.
"Our goal is to be much more surgical in our approach to prevent the spread to seniors,"
Beilenson said.
Sacramento County's difficult decision to change course comes even as the director-general
of the World Health Organization has said that it's "wrong and dangerous" for countries to
shift from containment to mitigation at this point in the pandemic. "Countries that decide to
give up on fundamental public health measures may end up with a larger problem, and a heavier
burden on the health system that requires more severe measures to control," said Dr. Tedros
Adhanom Ghebreyesus.
The U.S. has not made that shift as a whole, but experts say it's concerning that some areas
of the country have had to move away from the basic public health protocols of contact tracing
and quarantine in response to the federal government's botched rollout of coronavirus test
kits.
"Every tool should still be on the table," said Dr. Ashish Jha, a professor of global health
at Harvard University. "We should not give up on containment. It's a very big challenge ahead,
but I feel like we are starting to make progress as a country, and if we do an all-of-the-above
strategy, there's a pretty good chance we're going to get through this without too much harm to
our population."
King County in Washington state, which has been an early epicenter for the virus in the
U.S., shifted from contact tracing as well, but still requires a 14-day quarantine for people
who were exposed to someone with the virus. Yolo and Placer counties in California also have
shifted to a mitigation approach, though the details vary.
The nation's response to COVID-19 has been hampered by a range of problems with the federal
government's tests. Kits designed and released by the federal Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention initially didn't work; a narrow testing protocol meant it likely took weeks for some
communities to know that the virus was circulating locally; commercial labs began testing only
this week, and it can take more than four days for those results to come back.
President Donald Trump promised again Friday that the U.S. is ramping up efforts to partner
with private companies on test production. But access to testing remains sharply limited, and
varies widely from state to state and county to county. As of Friday, the number of U.S.
residents tested stood in the thousands. By contrast, South Korea has been testing 10,000
people a day for weeks.
The limited testing capacity in California is a pressing concern, Gov. Gavin Newsom said
during a news conference Thursday. The number of test kits is inadequate, the state faces a
shortage of reagents needed to run the tests, and many counties can't yet run their own tests.
He said the state will contract with commercial labs to deal with anticipated backlogs.
Even vulnerable people who had contact with people known to have the virus can't get
immediate testing. Two days after a resident at a Carlton Senior Living facility became
Sacramento County's first COVID-19 death, Dr. Mark Ghaly, secretary of California's Health and
Human Services Agency, said that all residents were being monitored. But they hadn't all been
tested for the virus. "We are working to make sure that those who need testing, that we have it
available," he told reporters, "and are working with the facility to determine who will get
tested very soon."
Containment requires both testing to find out who has the virus, and the manpower to follow
up on the results -- and state and local public health departments lack sufficient resources
for both, said Dr. Cyrus Shahpar, former team lead of the global rapid response team at the
CDC.
In Wuhan, China, for example,
1,800 teams of epidemiologists, each made of up of five people, traced tens of thousands of
contacts each day. "We would never be able to do that. Contact tracing is very
resource-intensive," said Shahpar. "It's not like public health departments have 50 standby
teams to do this."
The federal government last week allocated $8 billion in emergency funding for the
coronavirus response, but the move came nearly two months after the threat emerged, and long
after early testing would have helped contain the virus. "A lot of parts of the country have
already had community transmission. It's late," Shahpar said.
Without the ability to test, it's hard to know if we're abandoning containment strategies
too soon, said Alan Melnick, health officer for Clark County, Washington. During a measles
outbreak in 2019, his county was able to muster the resources to monitor more than 800 people.
But during that epidemic, they could pull in resources from the outside. Today, few places have
resources to spare. Decades of stagnant budgets have left public health departments trying to
do more with less.
"When you're fighting a war with bubble gum and shoestrings, you're forced to make difficult
decisions," said Alex Briscoe, a principal at California Children's Trust and former director
of the Alameda County Health Care Services Agency. "The burden we are placing on an underfunded
public health infrastructure is unreasonable and unacceptable."
Just to underline the incompetency of neoliberalism, the Jack Ma Foundation has just
donated 500,000 testing kits and 1 million masks to America. One guy on twitter said-
'Many will welcome this. Some will see it as an insult. The real insult is that the
richest country in the world has waged war on science and as a result is finding itself
helpless..'
The real tragedy is this. Iran has been covering up the large number of their Coronavirus
deaths in the past few weeks until satellite images showed mass burial sites outside their
cities. Through gross negligence, the US has also been covering up the infiltration of
Coronavirus in America and trying to cover it all up in the same manner.
So in a few months time, will the Russian and Chinese be releasing images of mass burial
sites on the American mainland that the Trump government will seek to hide?
Many hospitals in SE Kentucky do not have a stock of N95 respirators so doctors and nurses
are being forced to wear regular masks to treat patients. CDC in its infinite wisdom
(?learned helplessness) has approved this measure and the hospitals are telling the nurses
they will be fine! I guess they will, as will the other patients they treat, until the nurses
and doctors start becoming vectors and victims!
Every time I encounter a story like this, of vital social services starved for resources
and leadership in the name of markets, I think of E. F. Schumacher's book, "Economics as if
People Mattered".
The other book that explains the US predicament is "Phishing For Phools" by Schiller and
Akerloff.
In short, organisations start by building a good reputation through providing quality
goods/services. But then they slowly substitute cheap components while still charging for
high quality. At the end the quality is so poor that everyone wakes up and stops buying. Then
the organisation is cooked but the owners have made a fortune and walk away.
So it is in the US, which was once great but now has third world services for its
citizens. It is well on the way to utter failure. This is why the US mega-rich are bolting to
their bunkers in New Zealand and other countries. They know the real situation because they
dun it.
Apparently Wuhan closed their last temporary hospital yesterday, after only finding 15
cases within the last week. Encouraging news, if only we had the capacity or political will
to follow their example.
So our local school district cancelled our K-12 schools effective Monday (I had already
made the decision to pull my child out the night before the announcement came out).
In the message, the superintendent said that the decision was made on the advice of our
school district's pediatrician (who happens to be my daughter's doctor and I know him well,
having experienced 2 years of bronchitis, pneumonia and upper respiratory issues with my
daughter – hence my decision to pull her from school in the midst of this). There
hasn't been any confirmed cases where we live (the closest is Boston about 60 miles away).
Anyway, the doctor said that given that there are NO TESTS being done in our area, we don't
know the full extent of the situation here and thus, we need to act with extra caution.
Because of this, his recommendation is to close the schools. The email went on to say: It is
important to note that the Governor, Commissioner of Education, and DPH have not recommended
school closure .
She also said to practice quarantine measures during this time – no play dates,
people!
Anyway, my point is government is clueless and for the first time I am pleasantly pleased
to see a decision made based on science. Maybe there is some hope?
On a another note, I experienced 9/11 first hand (lived in the city and was at work a
block away) and I thought I used up my quota of crappy situations to have to experience. I
guess I was wrong!
Its interesting to read this about pulling kids from schools. Yet, the CDC now recommends
against closing schools. They issued this advisory; https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/considerations-for-school-closure.pdf
. Its just amazing to me (criminal actually) how inept and confused our government has
handled this. One good thing coming out of this mess as it is exposing all of the cracks
(more accurately fissures) in our "exceptional" country.
Exactly. As my school announced this, the front page of the Boston Globe had quotes from
the Governor saying, closing the schools across the state is not recommended at this time.
Hours later, Boston Public Schools closed.
In a similar vein – my company, instead of issuing a whole work from home
initiative, is "rotating" employees in/out of the office. That makes no sense to me. It's a
big company in NYC. Do it or don't do – what's this half are measure?
It's a mess. Make the right decisions for you and your family. You can't depend on
"leaders" now. They are utterly incompetent (though we all knew this, didn't we?).
Everything the CDC has been doing has been shocking. As a health care provider I just
don't want to even look at their recommendations anymore: their information is months old and
not based in science, let alone current research on COVID-19.
Local colleges have been shutting down but forcing instructors to go to the schools
– that's not social distancing. And many are still having students in EMT, nursing,
psychology, physical therapy, and other health sciences, go to their clinicals, where they
will be exposed without adequate personal protection equipment. This is because of the CDC.
And admin's greed for money.
Dude, I don't give a rat's ass about Donald Trump or any other American political
leader.
Democrat and Republican. They are all scum. All of them.
But the German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, foreign minister Heiko Maas, and the
German Health Ministry are treating this American takeover threat as real:
"At a news conference on Sunday, interior minister Horst Seehofer was asked to confirm
the attempts to court the German company. 'I can only say that I have heard several times
today from government officials today that this is the case, and we will be discussing it in
the crisis committee tomorrow,' he said."
U.S. Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer will propose legislation totaling at least $750
billion to combat the coronavirus outbreak and help the economy, his office said in a statement
on Monday. He will present the package as early as Tuesday, the statement said.
The plan would be in addition to an $8.3 billion aid plan that Congress has already passed,
as well as a multi-billion-dollar package the House approved last week, the statement said.
Schumer's plan would include money to address hospital capacity issues, expand unemployment
insurance, increase Medicaid funding, and provide immediate payment forbearance on federal
loans, the statement said. Democrats are a minority in the U.S. Senate.
Shows that had China locked down Wuhan just one day earlier, there could have been 40%
fewer cases to treat or 32,000 cases. This is the reality of exponential spread.
It also arrives at a correlation of 800 current true infections for each death. So Italy
likely has over 1M true infections, as opposed to the 24,000 "confirmed "cases reported
today.
"... His administration, it was argued, or facets of it, including the president himself, had willfully ignored the worst, tail-end risks of the international proliferation of the Coronavirus disease, COVID-19 or Wuhan flu, as stated in more off-color corners, including the Republican leadership. ..."
"... America is a week away from following the example of Italy, now on national lockdown, it's argued. The subtext: a lapse into genuine Third Worldism can not be ruled out, a coming catharsis for years of national breakdown, as well as the outlaw nature of the Trump presidency. ..."
"... Added into the dissatisfaction, in some quarters, is the discordance, ongoing even five years into Trump's national, political career, between Trump on the stump and the more polished parlances of the presidency. ..."
"... For every American concerned that the United States' response is lethargic and embarrassing, and more so than it might have been a generation ago, there's a rival perspective skeptical of an elite class that brought the country the Y2K pandemonium and the Iraq war. ..."
"... Under Trump the CDC has cut its budget for pandemic preparedness by 80% (in 2018) and Bolton oversaw the termination of the heads of pandemic response. I think we can safely assume that these measures weakened the response to the threat (that and Trump's baffling nonchalance when he could have been preparing cannot logically have failed to cost lives as potential carriers went about their day-to-day lives. ..."
"... Finally, he's unable to twist, outrun or scapegoat his way out of reality. Reaping what he is (and sows)... should've tried something a little more diplomatic with China than a punitive trade war... ..."
"... Unfortunately the COVID-19 crisis is showing that Trump really has no real leadership abilities but is only a reactionary. ..."
"... He's not "facing his fiercest trial". He's running away from it. The first thing he did was pass the buck to Pence, who handed it off to a bunch of incompetent political appointees at CDC, who botched it because they were corrupt mediocrities, totally out of their depth, and trying to do whatever they thought would keep Trump happy and maybe enrich some of their own cronies. ..."
"... There will be endless pallets of cash, billions, even trillions. It will be floating all over the place, totally untraceable, like in Afghanistan or Iraq. By the time this virus is finished with us, not only will Wall Street and the New York banks be bailed out again, but screw-ups like Seema Verma and other hacks hired by Trump and Pence will be multimillionaires. You just watch. ..."
"... Aside from the facts that no President has ever been as filthy mouthed, crude and insulting, bum Trump iis actually one of the FI's- a term I think I made up, but whatever- Trump is one of the 'Functioning Insane.' I'm telling you all: this guy, along with Vice President Pence, Jared Kushner and Pompeo and Esper at 'defense,' should be removed because they are mentally socio-pathic. They don't value human life. They're gonna lead this nation to misery that would be truly tragic. Appoint a commission from the Congresses and remove these weirdos now! ..."
he United States government, America's economic infrastructure and the country's character
are being stress-tested. So is the American president.
Let's not be bashful: President Donald Trump addressed the nation Wednesday, a rare salvo
from the Resolute Desk, against a backdrop of belligerent criticism. His administration, it
was argued, or facets of it, including the president himself, had willfully ignored the worst,
tail-end risks of the international proliferation of the Coronavirus disease, COVID-19 or Wuhan
flu, as stated in more off-color corners, including the Republican leadership.
America is a week away from following the example of Italy, now on national lockdown,
it's argued. The subtext: a lapse into genuine Third Worldism can not be ruled out, a coming
catharsis for years of national breakdown, as well as the outlaw nature of the Trump
presidency.
If the president's goal was to put these anxious criticisms at abeyance, he failed Wednesday
night, perhaps through no fault of his own as fewer Americans actually watch these addresses
anymore, relying instead on a clique of viral tastemakers. But his address was marred by
factual slip-ups. Not all travel from Europe, namely by U.S. citizens, is suspended, for
instance, and the government is, apparently, only, at current, willing to pick up the tab for
Corona co-pays, not the entirety of the treatments. Trump also failed to bat down paranoid
speculation that he, himself, is sick.
Added into the dissatisfaction, in some quarters, is the discordance, ongoing even five
years into Trump's national, political career, between Trump on the stump and the more polished
parlances of the presidency.
Formal addresses aren't really his bag. Trump looks like he's in a straight jacket. Which is
quite the manacle for a politician for whom body language -- gesticulation -- is so
central.
He did better Thursday morning.
Even as the market weathered its worst morning since Black Monday, the ruinous '87 crash,
Trump swapped the last night's diminishing digs for a more flattering, extemporaneous
environment. Astride Irish Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, goofily, amidst the crisis, still on hand
for St. Patrick's Day, Trump said, referring to the Europe ban: "It's also possible we could
end it early." Trump noted: "It was an important thing to do." He appeared irked, but, perhaps,
at ease.
And in an intentionally divisive remark, love it or hate it, Trump said: "Well, I think, the
Democrats won't be having rallies." He continued: "But nobody showed up to their rallies
anyways."
For now, America waits. The Corona crisis cuts, deep, both ways.
For every American concerned that the United States' response is lethargic and
embarrassing, and more so than it might have been a generation ago, there's a rival perspective
skeptical of an elite class that brought the country the Y2K pandemonium and the Iraq
war.
Most every observer concedes the tail-end risks, but such trenchant skepticism, some might
say nihilism, seems to define the spirit of this outsiders' administration.
Hard questions will be asked when the dust clears, hopefully, by summer.
Why were American supply chains so, completely vulnerable to the turmoil emanating from a
mafia state such as China? Why was John Bolton, as national security advisor, allowed to take
such a narrow view of
national security that he shuttered a special bureau dedicated to pandemics?
I think he'll go down as one of the worst and most hated presidents in history. Some of
those who will hate him most will be people who voted for him, people like me, people he
betrayed by working for Wall Street and foreign interests instead of putting America First.
Two weeks ago I heard someone float the idea that there are those hoping this is a pandemic
that wipes out millions just so we can finally nail Trump. I wouldn't doubt there are a few
radical crazies who would wish such a thing. Now, as I'm hearing more and more come out and
say this is proof Trump is wrong about everything, that this is sure to spiral us into
recession and that will end the Trump presidency for sure, I'm starting to think it's not
just a few crazies. When politics becomes the all defining everything, I suppose that's
what you get.
"When politics becomes the all defining everything, I suppose that's what you get."
This applies to people on both the left and right.
In my opinion, the long war against Christianity (not only on the left, but some
powerful forces on the right) and the decrease in believers has led to a lot of people
replacing the transcendent with politics. And, some in-betweeners who have blended
Christianity with politics into a blasphemous, toxic cocktail.
So if Hillary Clinton had been elected president, governed as badly as you feared, and then
made a colossal mistake that hurt millions of Americans, you wouldn't be relieved on some
level that at least the one silver lining was that she was going to get kicked out of
office? Being glad for the potential end of something that you see as truly disasterous and
bad for the entire country is just natural, regardless of the reasons.
It never dawned on me to. First, I would make sure the harm was a direct result, and not
just partisan punditry. Second, if she really did make such a mistake that led to the
suffering of millions, of course I would want her to pay. But please, think on this. Last
night we had to calm our ten year old down who was crying in bed. Why? Because this time,
he said, we might all die. This time?, I asked. Yes, because at his age, most of his aware
life he has heard 'Trump and Korea Nukes! We're going to die, everyone to a major target!
Trump, and Russia, he's destroying our nation's democracy! Trump and WWIII, he started
WWIII! We're going to Die! And on and on and on. Right now, teen suicide is at its all time
highest, and for the first time ever, suicide is one of the leading cause of death for
children my youngest's age. For the last going on four years, he and his age group have
been exposed to one catastrophic crisis that will surely kill us all after another. And
last night, it finally got to him.
I remember in school when Reagan was elected. Conventional wisdom was that he would
either destroy our economy, or his war mongering ways would provoke the USSR into a full
nuke war and the end of humanity. They even made a hyped TV movie about it.
That had quite
an impact on my generation. And that was then. I can't imagine what the thrice daily alarm
bells of hysterics and panic that have been used against Trump by his opposition (on both
sides of the aisle) have done to the young ones of our nation. But last night, I got a
pretty good idea. If this does finally work to defeat Trump, I hope the collateral damage
is worth it.
The pre-Gorbachev Soviet leadership certainly bought into the hysteria about Reagan. They
apparently thought he was crazy and would launch a first strike nuclear war.
We all did. That's what got me interested in politics. By the time 1984 and 85 rolled
around, it was obvious that Reagan wasn't 1) going to destroy America's economy and, more
importantly 2) wasn't going to nuke the world. How could so many intelligent people be so
wrong I wondered. That's when I began learning the art of political speech. My opponent
never disagrees with me on the best way to reduce crime. My opponent wants criminals to
escape and kill my family. Things haven't changed much in 30 years.
My husband and I raised a child who was too well aware of world events. I understand your
concern as a parent. There's not much you can do to prevent your child from reading and
hearing what is being said out there - on all sides.
We focused on a stable home life, focusing on school and work around the farm. His greatest
fear - this was before we could legally marry - was that something would happen and our
family would be torn apart. Lots of time spent reviewing contracts and protections with our
lawyer helped on the rational level, but emotionally - it hurt him, badly. Probably one
reason he is, today, a lawyer who works as a public defender.
However - to address your Hillary concerns: We have seen how other advanced countries
deal with health care. We have dispositive evidence that you conservatives did disband
exactly those teams and those offices of the government which were set up to provide rapid
responses to exactly this sort of health crises. We know you conservatives fought health
insurance and sick leave and every other means of breaking that awful exponential curve
from the day Trump took office. So, yes, we have direct cause and effect. Goodness, you
knew about this in December (the briefings given to the White House are now public record,
you can't pretend anymore they weren't) and you wasted all of December and all of January
and all of February.
How much more direct need it get?
You spent the eight years of the Obama presidency making the most outrageous claims about
FEMA death camps and a return to open racism I had thought we'd not see in the USA
again.
Of course commentators are going to speculate on the damage this failure to protect the
American people will do to the Trump re-election, and the sycophants in the Republican
Party. That does not mean anyone wants to see people die.
I, a yellow-dog, would gladly trade another four years of Trump for the lives of those
already lost to this virus and those yet to come. And I am as far to the Left as any
Democrat and have as much anger at the fundagelical Christians as any gay man of my age for
what they did to us during the Aids Holocaust. You're not going to find any large group of
people on the left wishing death and destruction on our fellow citizens just to get rid of
Trump.
Now, asking our fellows on the Left to please set aside purity testing for once and to get
out and vote. That's where you'll find our energies focused.
Who? Me? I never bought into those. And I condemned those who railed against Obama because
of racism. I also railed against those who exploited or encouraged racism and used racism
for political expediency. As for the virus, we'll have to see. Again and again, take
precautions, err on the side of too much caution. But as each and every medical expert
says, stop the panic. And that includes exploiting this, like racism of old, for political
gain.
I'm sure some do. Why not? We have no problem saying some want war in the Middle East just
for oil. Or that some want this or that policy that could hurt or kill minorities because
racism. I'm often taken by the ease with which we will ascribe the most horrible desires
and motives, and then turn on a dime and act shocked when the same principle is applied to
a different group of people. I don't believe the majority do. Though you can't help but
wonder when you hear people smack down any good or positive news and want to emphasize only
the worst case scenarios. Especially when, for the last three years, this is only the
latest case where, largely due to Trump, we're on the brink, we're going to die, and that's
that.
Before that, Obama was creating death panels and the government was creating concentration
camps and stockpiling bullets... this time, though, it's a bit different. There have been
major blunders by Trump but he's managed to push past them. The virus won't be browbeaten
and its cold science to look at the numbers seen elsewhere in the world and draw the
conclusion that this will be most severe, and that Trump's wilful unpreparedness will
contribute to it.
Under Trump the CDC has cut its budget for pandemic preparedness by 80% (in 2018) and
Bolton oversaw the termination of the heads of pandemic response. I think we can safely
assume that these measures weakened the response to the threat (that and Trump's baffling
nonchalance when he could have been preparing cannot logically have failed to cost lives as
potential carriers went about their day-to-day lives.
And I didn't care for such hysterics then, either. The only difference is that when such
over the top hysterics were aimed at Obama, much of the mass media swung in to defend Obama
and attack and marginalize those trying to whip people into frenzies. For the last three
years, however, it's been those same media outlets leading the panic and latest doomsday
sky is falling shout fests. If people are being to slow to take this seriously, it might
just be a little of the old Boy Who Cried Wolf.
OK, I read all that you have said. I lived through the end of WW11, the Korean war, the red
scare( drinking water being poisoned by flouride) hot cold war( getting under desks) the
polio epidemic( touch one's chin to your chest test) the measles, the Cuban crisis, the
Vietnam war, the 68 riots, the killing of students at Kent State, the drug epidemic of the
60's, all of the financial melt downs for the last 70 years, the gas shortages, aids, all
of the middle east wars, all of the stock market crashes, 9-11, the sex revolution, the
civil rights assassinations, segregation, terrorism both foreign and domestic, and too many
other threats to remember. Frankly there have been a few years patched together when life
was generally without one crisis or another. Mostly when I was younger but only because I
didn't understand much about the fact that life is just so messy. My family would be
considered lower middle class alway pinching pennies. I thought we were just like everyone
else though. I do recall being very afraid about epidemics, nuclear war, commies under
every rock and so on. Through all of these things we persisted not because we were
unusually strong but rather because that's just what you do. We had good leaders, not so
good leaders, government was good in most ways not so much in other ways. The American
dream was met by most of my generation , thus there are fewer mountains to climb. Now world
wide data tells us that those measures of progress have improved in ways unimaginable in my
youth of the 40's. Without a question Trump is the worst human being ever to be elected to
the Presidency. Sure there were other deeply compromised leaders, but their private lives
were not on display. This time it is different. The unprecedented lies, the unprecedented
malfeasance permitted to languish, the unprecedented unqualified Presidential appointments
and the like surely makes it seem that we are , this time going down the tubes. I do not
share that view. We will get by, your children should not be scarred for life, you and they
will soldier on, a vaccine will be formulated, the economy will regroup with sound
businesses surving, God fearing people will go to church, schools will continue to muddle
along with some new educational theory implemented. So buck up, remain vigilant, raise your
children to be strong, take it one day at a time. I could go on about the life of my 102
year old father who was born in 1918 during the Spanish flu outbreak that took his life
mother's life. Oh yes , WW11, the great depression of 1929, the dust bowl, and everything
since. He still sees the news. But he is now worried about one thing. Global climate change
brought on by the world's use of fossil fuel. I share the old man's concern. I have
recounted all these things to help put today's problems in perspective. But If we do not
address climate issues, then nothing else much matters to my great grandchildren, and your
grandchildren. As my dad told me yesterday, " good luck and God speed ".
Good for you; I think the response to Obama's 'death panels' etc was probably defensive
because it was clearly entirely based on fever-dreams. Whereas Trump is actually saying
these things. And while there have been some doomsday predictions, this one is the real
thing and the administration response has been not just unproductive (when it could have
been manufacturing ventilators) but counter-productive (rejecting WHO testing kits, making
clear that more tests meant more cases and more cases weren't welcome, telling the nation
Trump had a hunch things wouldn't be bad) and before that, cutting pandemic response
budgets by 80% and getting rid of the team responsible for pandemic response. The latter
two are typically Republican (removing redundancy from government is fairly central to the
platform) but a wrong belief being shared doesn't make it any less wrong.
You have FOX News. You have all the fundagelical churches.
Trump just award the Medal of Freedom to a man who is telling people the COVID 19 virus is
just another cold bug.
I'm just not seeing us liberals and progressives say that the want people to die to be rid
of Trump.
I do agree that we on the Left are deeply concerned about the things Trump has done (and
failed to do.) Global climate change is seen by us as an existential threat.
Of course not. But think of how we assume with ease that any and all criticism of Obama was
likely racism. Think of the speed with which we'll say any involvement in the Middle East
is only because of oil and greed. That's what's called having the institutions that make
the social narrative on your side. I have no doubt there were those who only cared about
oil or didn't like Obama because of racism. But it's absurd to think such foul motives
exist only one on political side. No doubt there are those hoping for a full blown
catastrophe, no matter the cost, in order to beat Obama, just as they hoped for (if not
encouraged) a collapse and ruin in our response to 9/11 in order to make Bush look bad.
Heck, they began yelling Recession for almost three years before it hit in 2008. I doubt
all of it was motivated by pure concern. I have no problem believing that any group has its
worst elements. But right now, my concern is those who are pushing this past the panic that
everyone is warning against, and it's not just liberal opponents of Trump.
I follow quite a few liberal and progressive sites (and TAC, because it's good to be
reminded that there are still some, if only few, sane conservatives left).
The only places I'm seeing such calls are re-posted comments from the far-right, hoping to
incite anger and revenge against us thar libruls.
Nobody on the Left wants a tanked economy, much less people dying just to end the worst
Republican presidency of the twenty-first century.
On a practical level, the only people now left clinging to Trump are the sort who not only
deny global climate change, but believe supply-side economics will solve everything and
COVID 19 causes nothing but a mild cold.
Everyone else is seriously thinking about what to do in November this year. When you've
lost even Dreher, you've lost it. Gay bashing and domination over women will just have to
take a back seat to rebuilding what will be left of our country.
Finally, he's unable to twist, outrun or scapegoat his way out of reality. Reaping what he
is (and sows)... should've tried something a little more diplomatic with China than a
punitive trade war...
Unfortunately the COVID-19 crisis is showing that Trump really has no real leadership
abilities but is only a reactionary. If he was a real leader instead of pretending that
banning Europeans was going to protect the US, which is highly doubtful, he had urged all
schools and universities to close immediately for the next 2-4 weeks as it is increasingly
recognized that healthy children and young adults can be infected with COVID-19 but not
show any symptoms and are therefore a major cause of the spread of COVID-19, in part
because of their personal hygiene practices being less fastidious than adults. Real leaders
make hard choices that are not always popular. Trump seems so lacking in leadership
abilities that he doesn't even seem to recognize the hard choices he has to make if he
really wants to protect Americans.
Y2K pandemonium? Whatever. Coders worked hard to iron out the date glitches before they
caused problems. Planes falling out of the sky was never a real possibility.
As for this...
Why were American supply chains so, completely vulnerable to the turmoil emanating from a
mafia state such as China? Why was John Bolton, as national security advisor, allowed to
take such a narrow view of national security that he shuttered a special bureau dedicated
to pandemics?
That's what happens when you mix corporate greed and Republican-controlled governments.
Both Bush and Trump hired Bolton.
Even if COVID-19 proves to be a "hoax" or just a damp squib, we have now seen with our own
eyes how Trump will react to a real crisis, not just in Puerto Rico but right here.
Suffice it to say, that this evidence does not give us any reason for confidence in our
intrepid leader.
He's not "facing his fiercest trial". He's running away from it. The first thing he did was
pass the buck to Pence, who handed it off to a bunch of incompetent political appointees at
CDC, who botched it because they were corrupt mediocrities, totally out of their depth, and
trying to do whatever they thought would keep Trump happy and maybe enrich some of their
own cronies.
"corrupt mediocrities, totally out of their depth, and trying to do
whatever they thought would keep Trump happy and maybe enrich some of
their own cronies."
Don't say that like it's past tense, "Mid Maryland". It's about to happen. There will be
endless pallets of cash, billions, even trillions. It will be floating all over the place,
totally untraceable, like in Afghanistan or Iraq. By the time this virus is finished with
us, not only will Wall Street and the New York banks be bailed out again, but screw-ups
like Seema Verma and other hacks hired by Trump and Pence will be multimillionaires. You
just watch.
Aside from the facts that no President has ever been as filthy mouthed, crude and
insulting, bum Trump iis actually one of the FI's- a term I think I made up, but whatever-
Trump is one of the 'Functioning Insane.'
I'm telling you all:
this guy, along with Vice President Pence, Jared Kushner and Pompeo and Esper at 'defense,'
should be removed because they are mentally socio-pathic.
They don't value human life.
They're gonna lead this nation to misery that would be truly tragic.
Appoint a commission from the Congresses and remove these weirdos now!
Then new people will be be at the next election for President.
And, I'll say: ever since I came to America when I was seven years old, I'm truly watching
a horror show between big mouth Trump's solving nothing anywhere, just actually...making
everything worse.
By the way, it doesn't bother anyone that Trump's daughter and Kushner, her husband are
deciding wars and so on for America? For America's troops and their families? That Pence is
a strange weirdo 'end of times' extremist religious nut?
I'm thinking now that every other American is an FI.
Trump already flunked "his fiercest trial". He wasted two months denying the reality and
gravity of the threat, and now it's spreading all over the country.
The "trial" is over. Trump is finished. Hopefully the cowardly Republican senators up for
election this year will be kicked out along with the man they voted to acquit. I say this
as someone who voted for Trump with misgivings but also a lot of hope, goodwill, and
prayers. Now I just pray that we will be spared any more consequences of electing him.
"... False and contradictory statements, wrong judgments, bad decisions, a tour-de-force of managerial incompetence ... Trump's virus response has helped to spread the disease. ..."
"... It was never "under control". It isn't under control because of Trump's stupidity and incompetence, and the stupidity and incompetence of the people he hires. ..."
"... Trump has blown many opportunities, but this time he may end up blowing up his chances for reelection, and a lot else, besides. ..."
"... As much as I loathe HRC, I think her administration would have handled this virus situation much better. Believe me, I hate to say it, but I think it's true. ..."
"... In grudging fairness to the casino swindler, this is what comes of a half-century right-wing campaign to gut public services of all kinds, and to paint scientists (as well as intellectuals generally) as an enemy. ..."
"... Now we find that American public health machinery -- perhaps **the** most fundamental function of governance -- can't even competently put together 19th-Century level quarantine measures. This is where 40 years of Reaganism was always going to end up. Same with Trump, who, far from being some kind of Russian puppet, has always been the perfect representative of what the Republican Party truly is . ..."
"... Budget cuts to the CDC budget only became an issue with the advent of the coronavirus. In November, the status of this virus may well determine the outcome of the elections. ..."
The president has repeatedly paired false promises of "control" with inadequate or wrongheaded measures that have contributed
to the worsening of the situation. Last week's announcement of a 30-day ban on travel from some parts of Europe not only caused a
panic among Americans because the president failed to describe the policy correctly, but it also set up a dangerous situation where
returning Americans would face a huge bottleneck at major airports where customs officials were completely unprepared for the influx
of travelers. The lack of resources and manpower combined with the lack of safety preparations meant that thousands upon thousands
of people, some of them infected with the virus, were crushed together for many hours. If the goal had been to enable the spread
of the virus to as many people as possible, one could hardly have designed it better.
Cheryl Benard
recounts her experience at Dulles International Airport as she returned from Europe:
I had thought I was lucky to get one of the last seats home. And I was confident, because Dulles had been identified by the
administration as one of the handful of U.S. airports equipped to test arriving passengers and admit or quarantine them accordingly,
that I would find a rigorous protocol in place upon arrival. Obviously, the administration would not take such a momentous step
without solid preparation.
I could not have been more wrong. Upon landing, I spent three hours in a jammed immigration hall trying to decide which analogy
fit better: the ignorant Middle Ages during the plague years or the most chaotic airport in the least developed country [bold
mine-DL].
The pictures you may have seen only begin to capture the chaos. There was no attempt to enable social distancing; we were packed
closely together. Two giant queues of people -- one for U.S. citizens and green-card holders and one for foreign nationals --
wound their way through the cavernous hall. I counted and came up with approximately 450 people in each section, for a total of
just under a thousand. Many were coughing, sneezing and looking unwell.
When I inched closer to the front, I could see that a scant six immigration desks were in service. Two additional desks to
the left had less traffic. These are ordinarily for people in wheelchairs; now, the wheelchairs were mixed in with the rest. When
I asked a security guard about the other lines, he told me they were for people with a confirmed corona diagnosis. There was no
separation for this group -- no plastic sheets, not even a bit of distance. When your line snaked to the left, you were inches
away from the infected [bold mine-DL].
The mess at Dulles was replicated at O'Hare, DFW, JFK, and elsewhere. There were no preparations made because this administration
never prepares for anything and doesn't think more than one move ahead. Jeremy Konyndyk was understandably appalled by the latest
in a series of debacles:
This is disastrous. Sign of hastily made, poorly planned, terribly executed policy.
https://t.co/IoQ0auLrms
-- Jeremy FLATTEN THE CURVE Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk)
March 15, 2020
Other airports too. Good God. You could hardly invent a better scenario for superspreading events.
Any cases of COVID in these crowds will have a far higher chance of spreading to others in these lines than if they were just
allowed in unchecked. https://t.co/VONae40vHU
-- Jeremy FLATTEN THE CURVE Konyndyk (@JeremyKonyndyk)
March 15, 2020
Meanwhile, one of the things that the government might be doing to get the situation more under control is one of the things that
they keep failing to do:
The US population is estimated at 333 million.
As of Friday afternoon, the @TheAtlantic
could verify only 16,471 people have been tested.
When asked about the testing failure last week, the president infamously
said , "I don't take responsibility
at all." When pressed on the 2018 decision to eliminate the global health security team from the National Security Council that Trump
approved on Bolton's recommendation, the president professed ignorance about it and said that "someone else" had done it. As always,
Trump's own actions are someone else's fault, and he accepts no responsibility for anything while seeking to take all the credit
for other people's work. The president will keep lying to the public that everything is under control while doing as little as possible
to bring the outbreak under control.
In the midst of this ongoing failure, the Surgeon General berated the media for covering the administration's major failures:
The surgeon general just said from WH briefing podium, "no more finger-pointing or criticism" and called for "less stories
looking at what happened in the past.
Criticism and calling attention to mistakes made by the government are the things that are supposed to make our political system
better able to adapt and learn from failure. Understanding how and why government officials made critical errors is essential to
limiting the damage from those errors and, if possible, rectifying them. Telling journalists that they should write fewer stories
about how things got to this point is to tell them that they should give up any pretense of being reporters and just resign themselves
to stenography. If not for the finger-pointing and criticism directed against the administration's slow and inadequate response,
it is likely that things would already be even worse than they are. Were it not for the very public embarrassment that extensive
media overage of the government's mistakes has caused the president and his allies, the administration would have felt no pressure
to change. As it is, the administration is still not moving quickly enough, but if they weren't being pushed by intense public scrutiny
they would be even more behind than they are.
False and contradictory statements, wrong judgments, bad decisions, a tour-de-force of managerial incompetence ... Trump's virus
response has helped to spread the disease.
It was never "under control". It isn't under control because of Trump's stupidity and
incompetence, and the stupidity and incompetence of the people he hires.
It is truly rich that Trump had a golden opportunity to look decisive and presidential, to lead a frightened public to safety,
and in an election year, no less.
A golden opportunity, and Trump blew it.
Trump has blown many opportunities, but this time he may end up blowing up his chances for reelection, and a lot else, besides.
As much as I loathe HRC, I think her administration would have handled this virus situation much better. Believe me, I hate
to say it, but I think it's true.
I must agree. Hillary would not have done much of what I, a liberal Democrat, wanted to see done. Her administration, however,
would have been filled with intelligent, competent people and the plans already in place (thank you, President Obama!) would have
been put into practice in December, when our monitors in China reported what was happening without the spin.
In grudging fairness to the casino swindler, this is what comes of a half-century right-wing campaign to gut public services of
all kinds, and to paint scientists (as well as intellectuals generally) as an enemy.
America has had a hand in.many genuine triumphs of public health over the last century. Yellow fever. Hookworm eradication.
Polio. Lots more. Things you'd think Americans might be proud of. But right-wingers and chest-thumping "patriot" types never seem
to give a damn about those *cultural* achievements. Not "moral" or "patriotic" enough. Doesn't get the blood pumping, apparently.
Now we find that American public health machinery -- perhaps **the** most fundamental function of governance -- can't even
competently put together 19th-Century level quarantine measures. This is where 40 years of Reaganism was always going to end up.
Same with Trump, who, far from being some kind of Russian puppet, has always been the perfect representative of what the Republican
Party truly is .
(More precisely, the right-wing coalition it represents. The Republican Party per se seems to be a kind of administrative husk.)
In grudging fairness to the casino swindler, we should remember that a lot of the readers of this web site voted for Trump in
2016 because he promised to nominate conservative candidates to Federal courts and because he was opposed to abortion. These same
voters helped give Republicans a majority in both the House and Senate for the following two years. Budget cuts to the CDC budget
only became an issue with the advent of the coronavirus. In November, the status of this virus may well determine the outcome
of the elections.
a lot of the readers of this web site voted for Trump in 2016 because he promised to nominate conservative candidates to Federal
courts and because he was opposed to abortion.
Yes. And those Federalist Society-spawned judges will be a valuable asset to corporate boards all around the world,
for years to come! Congrats to those readers, on their big score! But I hope they're not dumb enough to believe that they
are getting a cut of the asset stripping....
Budget cuts to the CDC budget only became an issue with the advent of the coronavirus.
Right. Similarly, the cuts to the fire department budget only became an issue during, you know, fires , when it turned
out that the hoses were full of leaks. An awkward discovery at an awkward time, no?
There is great danger in making a pact with the Devil - and that is precisely what conservative Christians did by putting Trump
in office.
The danger lies not in Satan breaching the terms of the agreement. Just the opposite. The conservative Christians got what they
wanted - judges who will do their damnedest to turn this country into a conservative Christian theocracy. Satan delivered to the
letter.
Unfortunately for the conservative Christians, the mechanism of delivery turned out to be Trump. The price for those judges
is the debasement of the Christian faith for generations to come.
Well played, Satan. Well fooled, conservative Christians.
Pacta sunt servanda...and the bill has just come do. Oh, and I wouldn't count on those judges for too long, either. You have managed
the unthinkable - uniting the Democratic Party.
Agreed, but let's not forget how deeply the Democratic Party bought into the neo-liberal, Reaganite consensus, including privatization
and contracting out hollowing out public agencies and ceding competence and self-policing to the private sector
True, but really theirs are mostly sins of omission and timidity. They're lousy defenders and advocates for public interests,
but they generally don't go wrecking working, useful institutions on ignorant whims.
Classy Trump and the US, trying to buy a German company working on Coronavirus vaccine, but to make it available only for the
US. The German government was not amused:
I love how these gangsters are making my country loathed throughout the world. Gratuitously. I've yet to hear the Trump
cult explain how it can possibly be to **our** advantage, in any situation, to be liked less and disliked more. It's a stunted
eight-year old's concept of "respect". The millisecond high of showing them pesky furriners tends to have lingering, unpleasant,
expensive aftereffects.
"'The American regime has committed an extremely unfriendly act,' said Social Democrat MP Karl Lauterbach, who said that German
health workers on the front lines — as well as people around the world — needed to have access to something developed in Germany,
and that no country should be able to purchase exclusive access to the vaccine."
Until 2001, Lauterbach was a member of Germany's Christian Democratic Union. When's the last time you saw a mainstream European
politician refer to the American government as a "regime?"
"... "I think Americans should be prepared that they are going to have to hunker down significantly more than we as a country are doing," Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on NBC's "Meet the Press." ..."
"... people in areas with "obvious community spread" need to be extremely cautious. All people everywhere still need to be practicing social distancing, including young people who think they're not a high risk for severe infection. ..."
"... "I'm not saying the rest of the country is okay...but if you are in an area where there is clear community spread you want' to be very, very, very cautious." ..."
"... Pressed about the response on "Face the Nation", Dr. Fauci said the "peak" of the outbreak in the US will hopefully be lower than the numbers seen in Italy. "I want to be overreacting," Dr. Fauci said. He added that the US is practicing travel bans and containment and mitigation in the country, and while "it is correct that case numbers will go up" he hopes that the US will never get to that "really bad peak". ..."
"... "If you're elderly...you shouldn't put yourself in a place where you're around crowded people." ..."
"... It may come to the situation that we "strongly recommend...myself personally I wouldn't go to a restaurant because I have an important job to do" Dr. Fauci said. But he didn't say whether all Americans should avoid going out, or if he would support blanket closures. ..."
"... we have a strategic national stockpile of ventilators and things like that. ..."
"... As far as how long it will take for the US to "rev up" testing, he said his understanding of where we are with the "companies who are getting involved" is that we will have "enough" tests in a few days, and that the number will only continue to go up. ..."
Dr. Anthony Fauci has just performed a legendary feet for politicos and public servants in
Washington: On Sunday, he appeared on all five of the major national "Sunday Shows" of the main
news networks: ABC's "This Week", CNN's "State of the Union", CBS's "Face the Nation", NBC's
"Meet the Press" and Fox News's "Fox News Sunday", cementing his role as the face of the
federal response to the coronavirus outbreak that has emptied out super markets and stoked
panic across the US, where nearly 60 have already died.
Overall, his tone was optimistic, but cautious. During his appearance on CNN, Fauci
acknowledged that "it's possible" that "millions could die" from the virus if the US didn't act
quickly to combat the outbreak. During his interview on "Meet the Press," Dr. Fauci said he
would "open" to a 14-day shutdown of schools and businesses in the US. He also said that
Americans should be prepared to "hunker down" for a while.
"I think Americans should be prepared that they are going to have to hunker down
significantly more than we as a country are doing," Anthony Fauci, director of the National
Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on NBC's "Meet the Press."
He told Chuck Todd that all Americans need to be cautious, but people in areas with "obvious
community spread" need to be extremely cautious. All people everywhere still need to be
practicing social distancing, including young people who think they're not a high risk for
severe infection.
"I'm not saying the rest of the country is okay...but if you are in an area where there is
clear community spread you want' to be very, very, very cautious."
Though he said we shouldn't close every school in the country right now, he said local
officials need to remain "ahead of the curve", and even said he would be in favor of some kind
of national shut down, if not for 14 days, but for as "long as we could."
"I would prefer as much as we possibly we could. I think we should be very aggressive and
make a point of overreacting."
On "Fox News Sunday", Dr. Fauci was asked whether he would support a domestic travel ban. He
replied that though it hasn't been seriously considered, he would be open to a domestic travel
ban like what Italy did, and that such a national lockdown wouldn't be "out of the
question."
"That has not been seriously considered - doing travel bans in the country - though we are
keeping a lot of things in mind," Dr. Fauci said, before ending the interview.
While certain members of Congress were encouraging Americans to go out and live their lives,
Dr. Fauci said Americans should avoid bars and restaurants.
"I would like to see a dramatic diminution of the personal interaction that we see in
restaurants and in bars."
He added that any elective surgeries should be cancelled: "Anybody who doesn't need to be in
the hospitals...keep them out of the hospitals" he said on "Meet the Press".
Pressed about the response on "Face the Nation", Dr. Fauci said the "peak" of the outbreak
in the US will hopefully be lower than the numbers seen in Italy. "I want to be overreacting,"
Dr. Fauci said. He added that the US is practicing travel bans and containment and mitigation
in the country, and while "it is correct that case numbers will go up" he hopes that the US
will never get to that "really bad peak".
While the mortality rate in China looked to be about 3%, a number that is "quite high", Dr.
Fauci noted, he hoped the rate in the US would be around 1%, which is still 10x greater than
the flu's 0.1%.
"Overwhelmingly more people recover from this than have serious trouble," Dr. Fauci
said.
Should Americans get on a plane right now? Fauci was asked on "Face the Nation".
Dr. Fauci said vulnerable Americans should avoid all travel and avoid public places whenever
possible.
"If you're elderly...you shouldn't put yourself in a place where you're around crowded
people."
It may come to the situation that we "strongly recommend...myself personally I wouldn't go
to a restaurant because I have an important job to do" Dr. Fauci said. But he didn't say
whether all Americans should avoid going out, or if he would support blanket closures.
Asked what's the plan if hospitals get overwhelmed, Dr. Fauci assured his interviewer that
the government's efforts should prevent this from happening, though he couldn't rule out the
possibility that this would happen...and plan for it.
"We're doing everything we can to make sure that worst case scenario will happen. It's
possible they could be...but if in fact there's a scenario that's very severe, it's
conceivable that would happen, which is why we have a strategic national stockpile of
ventilators and things like that.
"We would not be being realistic if we weren't to say that possibility didn't exist...but
there is planning to prevent that."
As far as how long it will take for the US to "rev up" testing, he said his understanding of
where we are with the "companies who are getting involved" is that we will have "enough" tests
in a few days, and that the number will only continue to go up.
If you think about it, NYC enornment with its high density of population, subway and
recirculating airconditioners is not that different from the environment of the cruise ship like
Daemon princess. So around 10% of population can be affected. That's over one million. assuming
15% of severe cases that 150K patients.
@81 vk
"Private healthcare systems can only be overrun if they want to....." that is exactly right.
In the US, the first reaction in crisis for the govt is to write a big check to the
favored contractor in any given industry. This habit is going to have to change fast, I don't
know if it can.
@various people, wondering whether it is a biological weapon, or more realistically, the
possibility that it is a research project that escaped from a lab (at an institution that
was, perhaps, constructed with the purpose of studying biological weapons)... While this is a
fascinating question, I would say there are more immediate concerns, no?
Locally: NY State has still apparently not completed tests for suspected people who don't
have serious symptoms. NY City number confirmed cases up 50% today (to about 150). I believe
that figure reflects the events of 4-6 days ago. The current wave of panic shopping becomes
another transmission point....
"THREAD: Last Thursday I was admitted to the ER w/ #coronavirus symptoms, including chronic
cough, shortness of breath & lung pain. I was given a #COVID19 test and told I'd have the
results within 48 hrs. Nearly a week later, I still don't have the results. 1/N
#covid19purgatory"
1. FULL RESPONSE
2. MASS MOBILIZATION
3. POLITICAL DETERMINATION
4. TIMELY POLICY ADJUSTMENT
5. EASING ECONOMIC PAIN WHILE FIGHTING DISEASE
6. TRANSPARENCY, COORDINATED ACTION
7. POWER OF SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY
China is a civilization state making the West look highly immature.
So yes, connect the dots. Why is Italy worse than the US - when the US trades far more?
Because the US sees it as a war about economic supremacy? The US has no problem trading with
China. The problem starts when China trades with other countries. The US is waging a war
against european countries by forcing them to sanction on Russia (while itself trading with
Russia), sabotaging Nord Stream 2, and now we have this mishap in Italy which happens to
trade with China. Connect the dots indeed.
Here is a table showing the "doubling time" of the spread of the virus for various
countries. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
Italy's doubling time is 4 days, which brought its health care system near to collapse. Note
that the US doubling time is 3 days! And this may be an underestimate because testing has
been hindered, and many case are undetected. The doubling time for China is an impressive 32
days.
It was a somber Donald Trump who spoke at the White House today to declare a "national emergency" and that "we're doing a great
job." Gone was his language about exaggerated fears and a "hoax" surrounding the coronavirus. His own daughter, Ivanka, stayed home
rather than visit the White House because of her exposure to an Australian official who has the coronavirus.
Not only was the shift in tone marked, but Trump also referred constantly to the numerous public health experts and corporate
CEOs flanking him as he faced the biggest crisis of his presidency. Dr. Anthony Fauci indicated that the coronavirus may remain virulent
for another eight to nine weeks: "I can't give you a number. It depends how successful we are." Trump himself sought to convey confidence
by emphasizing that his administration had moved quickly to impede the spread of the coronavirus, including quickly ordering travel
bans. How effective will his emergency declaration prove?
The most important thing that the administration can do is work to remove the uncertainty surrounding the extent of the spread
of the virus. Until there is more clarity, economic activity will be hobbled as investors and businesses retreat from incurring any
additional risk. In this regard, Trump's decision to announce an emergency was a case of better late than never. Failure is not an
option. Left unchecked, the worst-case estimates are that the coronavirus could kill up to 1.5 million people and turn America into
Italy writ large. Writing in the Washington Post today, the Italian journalist Monica Maggioni underscores just how grim that prospect
would be: "I find myself confined in a place where time is suspended. All the shops are closed, except for groceries and pharmacies.
All the bars and restaurants are shuttered. Every tiny sign of life has disappeared. The streets are totally empty; it is forbidden
even to take a walk unless you carry a document that explains to authorities why you have left your house. The lockdown that began
here in Lombardy now extends to the entire country."
Some of the most important pledges Trump made were that he would offer up to $50 billion in federal funding to states to battle
the coronavirus. He indicated that hospitals can now "do as they want. They could do as they have to." He added, "I'm urging every
state to set up emergency operations centers effective immediately." He indicated, in response to a question after his opening statement,
that he himself would undergo a coronavirus test, something that he had previously resisted. Trump also said that up to five million
tests would be available by the end of the month-a lofty goal. The danger for Trump is that, as is his wont, he is overpromising.
Still, the move to establish drive-thru testing at places like Walgreens and Walmart parking lots makes good sense. Trump's weakest
moment by far came when he responded to a question about the lack of testing that until now has badly hampered efforts to stop the
virus-"No, I don't take responsibility at all."
To help prop up the economy, he indicated that government purchases for the strategic reserve would be increased. Wall Street
responded positively to Trump's remarks as the stock market rose, ending up almost two thousand points on Friday. But Trump also
pooh-poohed a multi-billion dollar bill backed by House Democrats to address the coronavirus crisis, remarking that they "are not
doing what's right for the country." Among other things, it does not include the payroll tax relief that Trump is supporting. House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi is vowing to vote on the bill.
For now, the measures that Trump announced today will mark a significant shift in his administration's approach to the pandemic.
Former Food and Drug Administration head Scott Gottlieb tweeted, "Actions by White House today to sharply increase testing capacity
and access, declare a national emergency, implement new steps to protect vulnerable Americans, support assistance for those hardest
hit by mitigation steps, all very important. Will meaningfully improve readiness."
Here's a useful infographic showing the Italian experience of COVID-19. Really drives
home the need for us to support more vulnerable groups, including elderly and those with
chronic diseases. pic.twitter.com/nlk1lPW0Xk
@reiner
Tor Seems people who smoke have made themselves more vulnerable to the bug. They have
done this despite 50 years of vigorous anti-smoking measures and propaganda.
They knew the risks. They rolled the dice. Now they should be sent to the end of the line
and treated last.
My Chinese colleague from work's parents have been holed up in an apartment in Zhengzhou
for 45 days with only minimal freedom to go out for supplies by appointment, then a virtual
battery of heat and temperature tests to get back in the building.
The city (10 million) hasn't had a new case for 2 weeks and they were on the verge of
relaxing the strict isolation rules.
Then some Chinese fella who'd been travelling in Europe returned to Zhengzhou, travelled
home on public transport doing his shopping on the way, and it turns out he's infected.
I don't know the precise translation from mandarin but it was something like "the whole
city want to string him up"
News from an Italian guy in Switzerland: situation in Italy is heavy, people are frightened
but mostly they are following the instructions to stay at home and limit the visits. And
people are also frightened because we do not know exactly how this virus works, how much time
this blockade will last, and what we will do after. Our society is no more accustomed to
turmoils and lack of reliable information.
On the other side of the Alps, still there are less cases but I want to stress that Italy and
rest of Europe are following very different instructions. In Italy, they tested almost
everybody at the beginning, and now only people with symptoms but also everybody requesting a
test for himself. In Europe, in general they are testing only old people with symptoms, while
refusing to test young people. So it is easy that the real number of cases are
underestimated. Looking at the numbers, I guess that this underestimation in United States is
much larger.
Italian government didn't want to be blamed, and probably they want to approve some
controversial laws during this blockade when nobody will go to protest. They didn't care
about economic damages. Other governments in Europe are more worried for the economy,
probably they did a bet to resolve the epidemics while avoiding to discover the real
numbers.
Concerning the number of deaths, in Italy is much higher for at least three reasons: lack of
beds in the hospitals, heavily reduced due to the austerity with respect to the rest of
Europe, an aging population, and the fact that they are ascribing to the virus also deaths
occurred probably for previous illnesses in the presence of the virus as concause. In most of
other countries, they are not checking after death.
We will hold on, meanwhile let us stay tuned also on big markets collapse and, obviously, on
Syria
" While the plans of the federal government remain classified, recent reports have
revealed that the military and intelligence communities -- now working with the NSC to
develop the government's coronavirus response -- have anticipated a massive explosion in
cases for weeks. U.S. military intelligence came to the conclusion over a month ago that
coronavirus cases would reach "pandemic proportions" domestically by the end of March. That
military intelligence agency, known as the National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI),
coordinates closely with the National Security Agency (NSA) to conduct "medical SIGINT
[signals intelligence]."
And those are just from today. The Chinese media has been touting this narrative (quick
recover, fast-track resumption of the economy, keep the targets for the year) since the
epidemic started.
Man Walks Out Of 'Quarantine Motel' & Goes Shopping, Hops On Public Bus by
Tyler Durden Sat,
03/14/2020 - 16:25 The pattern in many major cities hard-hit by coronavirus has been to utilize
hotels as quarantine centers as local health facilities become overwhelmed. And yet in some
instances especially in the West, there's ambiguity surrounding quarantine of confirmed or
suspected cases as legally 'mandatory' or merely 'urged' and strongly suggested.
Though nearly unprecedented in recent American history, 'motel quarantine' is fast becoming
a thing in places like Washington State and California, the latter witnessing Gov. Gavin Newsom
issuing an executive order Thursday allowing some city authorities to take over hotels and
motels for medical use , including in places like Sacramento and the San Francisco area. Such
methods are being used especially for returning cruise ship passengers with potential
exposure.
But in an explosive and unusual story which is likely to become a more common occurrence as
'motel quarantine' grows and as the line between civil liberties vs. health authorities'
mandate remains blurred, Bloomberg details that a man walked straight out of coronavirus
quarantine near the hardest hit area near Seattle and onto a public bus .
"In an incident sure to stir debate around the Seattle-area's motel for isolating people who
might have the coronavirus, one of its first tenants walked out, despite a security guard's
attempts to stop him," the Bloomberg
report begins.
"The man arrived Thursday while awaiting test results, according to a statement from King
County, which recently bought the site in a suburb south of Seattle to ease the burden on local
hospitals."
The following morning the man was seen crossing the street to browse a local convenience
store where he allegedly shoplifted.
He then boarded a public bus, which was immediately after taken out of service when
authorities learned of the situation.
According to The Seattle Times , the man's test later came back negative, but not before
causing
a local panic :
By Friday evening, the person's test results had come back negative, but not before
raising questions about how the county planned to address staffing and security at quarantine
facilities as more people become sick.
The person had been experiencing homelessness and was placed at the motel Thursday
night.
The incident underscored what will be a staggering challenge ahead of public officials as
the virus continues to spread: how to quarantine "hundreds or thousands" of people who become
sick in coming months and aren't able to stay in their own homes, or don't have homes in
which to stay .
The Econo Lodge-turned-coronavirus-quarantine site on Central Avenue North in Kent, near
Seattle:
"The fears that we have stated and the concerns we had from the beginning when we knew this
facility was going to be put in Kent at that motel have all come true,"
said Kent Mayor Dana Ralph. "The things we predicted would happen have happened."
The motel had recently been purchased by the county and repurposed as a quarantine site - a
deeply controversial moved which has drawn the ire of local residents, who fear more such
"breaches" involving quarantined and possibly infected individuals.
I was reading yesterday about a difference between a *screening* test (no symptoms
required for a test) and a *diagnostic* test (must have symptoms; "yes infected" means yes
infected, but "not infected" could actually be infected)
Hot Topics I am in a city
with a curfew (enforced ?) where only pharmacies, supermarkets and those stores where someone
from China sells all sorts of household stuff are open. Rome hasn't reached the dread levels of
Wuhan and Milan, but the Italian government is trying to get ahead of the curve.
It is strange and alarming that there is little traffic (it is also impressive that Romans
don't obey the traffic code even when there is little traffic). People are really trying to
stay home all the time (I was semi home bound before it was cool).
I have learned about the activities which people consider absolutely necessary. A large
fraction of people walking around are walking dogs. Many people are wearing masks (absolutely
sold out everywhere) and gloves. I discover there are some things I have to touch. These
include an ATM (alarmingly often) and cash.
One striking thing is that people wait outside of the supermarkets and pharmacies. This is a
rule that does not have to be enforced -- people are scared. Good thing it's not cold in Rome
during March (or February or actually ever at all in the globally warmed year of our lord
2019/2020). This makes me notice the high rates of infection in Iceland and Norway. I guess up
there (where I have been in July with a rain coat) the choice is risk of Covid 19 or of
frostbite.
The extreme measures (not just ordered but orders which are actually obeyed, by Romans) are
impressive because as of the day before yesterday there were only 200 cases in Lazio (region
which includes Rome). The fact that one of the cases was governor Zingaretti (also head of the
Italian Democratic Party) might have amde a difference.
The news spreads even faster than the virus. Down here the health care system is under
strain but not overwhelmed (yet) but people read about (and see on TV) reports on how in
Lombardy Triage has reaquired it's original meaning. During World War I, It was red = critical,
yellow = serious monitor but not critical, black = doomed. In normal times black now means
deceased.
In Lois Armstrong Airport New Orleans during Katrina there were living people with black
tags (for will nor survive a flight and so will die here). I was appalled. Now in parts of
Northern Italy there aren't enough respirators for patients who would die without one. This is
part of why the Italian case fatality rate is high. It is also important that Italians have had
low fertility for decades and are old on average.
I guess I haven't written anything that people don't know already. I will update when the
wave of contagion overwhelms us. I fear that I will be giving readers a hint of future action
in their home town.
Reply about conditions in Hattiesburg for Judy2Shoes.
Did some running around the local Medical Industrial Complex this morning. What a difference
a week makes. The attitude about the coronavirus is completely different from last week.
Now there are people walking around the clinic and hospital wearing masks, and some
'rubber' gloves. Signs up everywhere about precautions for the coronavirus. When I went to
pay off a small bill associated with Phyl's leg case, there was a big sign in the glass door
for the Financial Department saying that, essentially, if you show the basic symptoms, do not
come into that office but go to the ER entrance for evaluation.
No signs of panic here yet. This region is still "low information" concerning the spread
and severity of the pathogen, but at least it is now a major concern locally.
Thank you so much, Ambrit. That makes me feel better. I have a lot of relatives in MS, but
their level of concern has been shaped by the MSM. It's so much better to hear from someone
like you, who is actually paying attention.
In my neck of the woods (eastern Washington), I've been trying for weeks to get people to
make prudent purchases of staples to store away – just in case.
One elderly neighbor kept saying people were overreacting, but I kept at her, pointing out
having a few extra supplies on hand might be a good idea and wouldn't be hoarding.
When I told her that Trump wasn't telling the public the truth, she said that people don't
understand that it's his job to keep the public calm. I could have walked her through the
dangerous results of his lying (and everything else he's doing), but I let it go. At least
she started to collect supplies a couple of weeks ago, and now she's in somewhat of an
overreacting mode. I don't care. Whatever keeps her safe.
Less than stellar news addendum.
Do call that 'Assisted Living' place and agitate for your uncle now. This afternoon, local
news announces that Hattiesburg has first probable case in Mississippi. A man who visited
Florida recently is "self isolated at home" after a first positive test result. Secondary
test being done now. Test happening at State lab.
See:
https://www.wdam.com/2020/03/12/forrest-county-man-is-first-presumptive-coronavirus-case-miss/
At least the locals are mentally prepared now
Be strong.
That Lake Havasu travesty is all "Water Over The Dam" now. The real 1930s War was between
the Coastals and the Okies. See "The Grapes of Wrath" for a literary rundown on that one. (No
Pink P -- y Hats in that fight. People were killed.)
Insofar as the States have their own Health Authorities, they could ban certain types of
"contagious" people from entering their environs. I have seen cases of local Organs of State
Security requiring exile from a particular State in return for non-prosecution of certain
non-violent offenses.
The balance of power between the States and the Federal Government is an always evolving
'situation.'
WORTH REPEATING: In 2018, Trump fired the entire US pandemic response team.
These were the experts with decades of experience dealing with precisely the kind of
situation we are in today.
Michael Grunwald @MikeGrunwald
I had forgotten my own reporting that @SenatorCollins
stripped $870M for pandemic preparations out of the 2009 stimulus.
[page image from Grunwald's book, The New New Deal ]
There was some discussion here the other day about who's responsible for the sorry state
of the CDC
and pandemic preparation in particular. Now, the Dems controlled all the WH, Senate and House
in 2009,
so obviously they share some of the blame, but if Collins hadn't demanded this,
it probably wouldn't have happened.
Dr. Brian Monahan, attending physician of Congress, told a closed-door meeting of Senate
staffers this week that 70 million to 150 million Americans -- a third of the nation -- could
contract the coronavirus. Dr. Anthony Fauci testified that the mortality rate for COVID-19 will
likely run near 1 percent.
Translation: between 750,000 and 1.1 million Americans may die of this disease before it
runs its course. The latter figure is equal to all the U.S. dead in World War II and on both
sides in the Civil War.
Chancellor Angela Merkel warns that 70 percent of Germany's population -- 58 million people
-- could contract the coronavirus. If she is right, and Fauci's mortality rate holds for her
country, that could mean more than half a million dead Germans.
Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babis called Merkel's remark "unhelpful" and said it could cause
panic. But Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch seemed to support Merkel, saying between 40
percent and 70 percent of the world's population could become infected.
Again, if Fauci's 1 percent mortality rate and Lipsitch's estimate prove on target, between
3 billion and 5 billion people on earth will be infected, and 30 million to 50 million will
die, a death toll greater than that of the Spanish Flu of 1918.
There is, however, some contradictory news.
China, with 81,000 cases, has noted a deceleration in new cases and South Korea appears to
be gradually containing the spread of the virus.
Yet Italy, with its large elderly population, may be a harbinger of what is to come in the
West. As of Thursday, Italy had reported 12,000 cases and 827 deaths, a mortality rate of
nearly 7 percent. This suggests that the unreported and undetected infections in Italy are far
more numerous.
In the U.S., the death toll at this writing is 40, a tiny fraction of the annual toll of the
tens of thousands who die of the flu.
But the problem is this: COVID-19 has not nearly run its course in the United States, while
the reaction in society and the economy approaches what we might expect from a boiling national
disaster.
The stock market has plunged further and faster than it did in the Great Crash of 1929.
Trillions of dollars in wealth have vanished. If Senator Bernie Sanders does not like
"millionaires and billionaires," he should be pleased. There are fewer of them today than there
were when he won the New Hampshire primary.
@Carlton
Meyer I've been following a few doctors on Youtube, for about a month now (dispassionate,
evidence-based docs), and their opinions vary on how serious this is.
What I don't is, if this is as contagious as they say (and it does seem to be) and as
life-threatening as they say, then given that there are several cases in NYC, why are we not
already seeing thousands of deaths there- a city where millions are crammed together daily,
many without good hygiene, many who have been for several weeks now, using public
transportation. I don't get it. It would seem the effects of any virus that were as bad as
they're saying, would already be reaching peak zombie level conditions in places like NYC,
Chicago, Boston, SF and DC.
Like the man on viriculture.com used
to say, healthy life =/= long life. We work towards extending one's lifespan, yet we don't
extend their "health span". We just extend the period when one is already falling apart. The
older you are, the more meds you need, the more healthcare you need etc etc.
So the longer the lifespan the bigger the load on healthcare and pension funds.
The main problem is, that our economic and cultural systems are at this point, 90%
biologically incompatible with us. A good chunk of our lives we study (especially so when you
study something like medicine, i believe at this point it's for genuine masochists). By the
time you get to a nice position in your career you're probably going to be older than 35. For
good birth rates etc that's unnaceptable.
So, the solution is to extend the "health-span". Preferably, you need to slow aging down at
least by 10, maybe even 15 years, while keeping the overall lifespan the same. The current way
is simply unsustainable
@Kratoklastes ...Like all the
other viruses that have floated around over the years be this one is being hyped up.
The hype works precisely because of your remark #3 but it will die a natural death after
everyone makes their money and the public gets bored.
I mean if just 1B people get a shot costing $50 that is a whole lot of Yuan. Store owners
also appear to be sneaking that extra markup on soaps and disinfectants and toilet paper. Y2K
also comes to mind and I am sure that Aids /HIV continues to kill more people annually than
this virus ever will. In the meantime I caution all nose pickers to leave those buggers alone
and not report any unusually large specimens. It will only skew the statistics and increase
the panic.
60,000 people die every month in Italy. Many of them old. Now we have 1,000 reported dead
due to the Covid-19. Most of them old. Many of them would have died anyway from some cold
or flu that would further aggravate their poor state of health. This year Covid-19 got
there first.
You request that opinions should be limited to fact based
but in the next sentence you state "The truth is that NONE OF US really knows for a fact what
this virus can do, we are all guessing."
well .whether fact based or speculative here are two alternate views>
"My own view on the Coronavirus situation, is that I trust the Chinese Government to be
doing all it can possibly do, to contain the epidemic.
There are a lot of people there, living in close proximity
In that context, Steve Bannon is just using inflammatory language throughout, to diss the
CCP
I can well understand why the CCP will not allow any US personel anywhere near the
patients, nor allow them to have access to any of the medical data.
If Bannon is implying that the CCP has something to hide, then the CCP also has its own
suspicions as to how this virus suddenly appeared
A lot of stuff has in the past come out of Livermore Labs and in the UK from Porton Down,
which "should not" be released I know of southern coastal cities in the UK being sprayed with
viruses from the air in the 1950s – a deliberate programme supported by the UK
government
The CCP will also be fully aware of British activities within Syria and then there is the
Skripal incident, a home-grown Boris the Buffoon manufactured crisis
If one looks at UK and US official government behaviour towards Hong Kong, then one can
easily surmise that there are attempts to find other means to destabilise China
Just saying "
Another view >
"There was an interesting item on Facebook a few days back, claiming to be written by a
Chinese military official, a staunch supporter of the communist party and the government, but
a man 'with a conscience.'
He claimed the virus was manufactured with a view to causing reduction of higher brain
functions (i.e. lowering the IQ) and inducing docility into those who are protesting in Hong
Kong.
It was first tested, according to his narrative, more discreetly on rounded-up Uighurs in
the prison camps, well away from anywhere likely to be observed, and everyone who was
exposed, died. There was a massive clean-up and cover-up operation
Realising it needed more work if it was to be deployed in HK, they did some further
modifications and had intended to do a new test in Hubei, but this was pre-empted by a
shoot-out near the meat market that has been mooted as the source of the outbreak. Someone,
I'm not sure now who he reckoned it was, attempted to 'kidnap the bio weapon in order to grab
the technology it represented, but the consignment was hit by a bullet and the virus escaped.
Those in charge ensured there were no survivors as witnesses in that area.
He further claimed that the mortality rate is actually 100% but that it has been put about
that it is only 2% – this underplaying being with the complicity of the USA, Russia and
the UK and presumably the EU, in order to forestall mass panic. He claimed only those wearing
hazmat suits stand any chance, and that the pandemic will claim the lives of all but top
officials who have recourse to protective measures. He said that the actual symptoms in the
final stages are up to five days of agonising pain with internal organs haemorrhaging in a
similar way to Ebola.
Of course, the article was anonymously written, as he said his life and that of his family
would be forfeit if he were to be identified. Which makes it a narrative that is easy to fake
but impossible to completely refute. "
Like the Saker, I do not think the corona virus outbreak was deliberate. The first thing that
people crafty enough to unleash this sort of thing would think of is blowback.
Perhaps the depopulationists–but this is a really ineffective way of going about
it.
I do think, however, that it arose in a "laboratory" of tens of millions of human subjects
all undergoing an enormous experiment. Please humor me a moment.
If there were a deliberate element in all of this, it would be the hype and rush be the
first to implement an untested technology about which dire warnings were already being
sounded.
Virologists and epidemiologists have yet to discount that the coronavirus was a bio attack.
This does NOT mean that it was an attack, merely that the possibility of a bio attack cannot
be discounted. While there remains a lot of circumstantial and anecdotal "evidence" that this
was an economic attack perpetrated by America against China, this does NOT prove conclusively
that such an attack took place, nor does it prove that such an attack did not take place.
There is an abstract submitted to ChinaXIV (a research website) that, although not yet peer
reviewed, suggests that the virus dd NOT originate at the Wuhan Seafood Market and that it
was introduced:
Any reference as to who introduced the coronavirus to the market is pure speculation at
this juncture, although the circumstantial and anecdotal evidence could be construed as
overwhelming against the US considering the timing, geographic location and proximity to the
Wuhan Seafood Market of the US soldiers present for the International Military Games.
I am not a virologist or epidemiologist (I am an engineer), however it is not completely
out of the realms of possibility for a virus to make the transition from animal to human
host; and the conditions in which animals are kept in Wuhan and surrounding areas is
certainly not of the same standard as the West – both from the perspective of hygiene
and humanitarian considerations. Another abstract that does looks into the origins of the
virus states:
"The genomic features described here may in part explain the infectiousness and
transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. Although genomic evidence does not support the
idea that SARS-CoV-2 is a laboratory construct, it is currently impossible to prove or
disprove the other theories of its origin described here, and it is unclear whether future
data will help resolve this issue. Identifying the immediate non-human animal source and
obtaining virus sequences from it would be the most definitive way of revealing virus
origins."
Much mention has been made of the corona-virus in question (COVID-19) binding to the ACE-2
receptors found in the lungs and heart – most particularly in those of Asian heritage.
It would not be outside the realms of science for this to be a logical target for the virus,
given its geographic location, but the hypothesis of it being engineered to target a specific
racial genotype is also not outside the realms of possibility.
"Our findings indicated that no direct evidence was identified genetically supporting
the existence of coronavirus S-protein binding-resistant ACE2 mutants in different
populations (Fig. 1a). The data of variant distribution and AFs may contribute to the
further investigations of ACE2, including its roles in acute lung injury and lung
function12. The East Asian populations have much higher AFs in the eQTL variants associated
with higher ACE2 expression in tissues (Fig. 1c), which may suggest different
susceptibility or response to 2019-nCoV/SARS-CoV-2 from different populations under the
similar conditions."
I agree with Andrei's analysis that a bio-weapon is both unwieldy and difficult to control
when used in a purely military application, but when used as an economic weapon, the
possibility is mentioned in the odious The Project for a New American Century's (PNAC) report
titled "Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources For a New Century."
"advanced forms of biological warfare that can 'target' specific genotypes may transform
biological warfare from the realm of terror to a politically useful tool."
This does not prove that the tragedy unfolding out of Wuhan was a bio-weapon, but
certainly demonstrates the possibility of intent. At this juncture, neither side of the
argument can provide any proof, so the the hypothesis remains pure speculation. The Chinese
government is not directly accusing the US of a bio attack, but it is extremely worrying that
both the Russian and Chinese governments remain highly suspicious.
"CORONAVIRUSES HAVE ALWAYS INFECTED HUMANS, PANIC IS UNWARRANTED"
Posted by agencycyta | Mar 9, 2020 | Science , Featured , Health | 0 |
"Coronaviruses have always infected humans, panic is unwarranted"
According to an Argentine virologist in France, Pablo Goldschmidt, there is no evidence to
indicate that the fatality or morbidity of COVID-19 is superior to that caused by influenza
viruses or the common cold.
(CyTA-Leloir Foundation Agency) -. For the virologist and infectious disease specialist
Pablo Goldschmidt, the panic surrounding the strain of coronavirus identified in China
(COVID-19) is as unwarranted as the one created in 2003 with severe acute respiratory
syndrome (SARS). ) or in 2009 with the influenza A (H1N1) virus.
"The ill-founded opinions expressed by international experts, replicated by the media and
social networks repeat the unnecessary panic that we have previously experienced. The
coronavirus identified in China in 2019 causes neither more nor less than a strong cold or
flu, with no difference until today with the cold or flu as we know it, "says Professor
Goldschmidt, also a biochemist, pharmacist and psychologist graduated from the UBA, volunteer
for the World Health Organization (WHO), former praticien hospitalier of the public hospitals
in Paris and author of the book "People and microbes, invisible beings with whom we live and
make us sick" (2019).
The Argentine specialist lives more than four decades in Europe. At the Faculty of
Medicine of the hospital center de la Pitié-Salpetrière in Paris, he obtained
diplomas in pharmacokinetics, clinical pharmacology, neuro-psychopharmacology and
pharmacology of antimicrobials. At the Université Pierre et Marie Curie Paris VI he
received a doctorate in molecular pharmacology. The theoretical and practical training of the
Paris Curie and Pasteur Institutes also concluded with degrees in fundamental virology and
molecular biology. As a volunteer at the WHO, he integrates humanitarian missions in Guinea
Conakry, Bissau, Pakistan, Ukraine, Cameroon, Mali and the Chad border with Nigeria. And it
aspires to obtain from the Argentine State a mandate to exercise the right to speak before
the international organization.
In dialogue with the CyTA-Leloir Agency, Goldschmidt expresses its tension in the face of
the global terror generated by the quality of information that is disseminated about the new
coronavirus and considers it necessary that the data that is propagated be placed in the
geographical and social context. "You can't create hysteria on the entire planet," he
says.
-Which viruses are considered responsible for respiratory diseases?
Viral respiratory conditions are numerous and are caused by several viral families and
species, among which the respiratory syncytial virus (especially in infants), influenza
(influenza), human metapneumoviruses, adenoviruses, rhinoviruses, and several coronaviruses,
already described years ago. It is striking that earlier this year global health alerts have
been triggered as a result of infections by a coronavirus detected in China, COVID-19,
knowing that each year there are 3 million newborns who die in the world of pneumonia and
50,000 adults in the United States for the same cause, without alarms being issued.
– The fact that it is transmitted by saliva or by cough increased the fear of the
population?
Many microorganisms are transmitted by this route in humans. The cold, transmitted by
saliva and cough, is caused by more than 150 rhinoviruses. Ten million people were infected
by saliva and cough with the tuberculosis agent in 2018, of which 1 million were children and
205 thousand died. The same happened with bacterial meningitis, transmitted by saliva, which
affected more than a million people in a year. Measles is also transmitted by saliva, hence
the urgency to protect the population with vaccines.
-You. Do you consider the international alerts launched due to the coronavirus to be
exaggerated?
Our planet is the victim of a new sociological phenomenon, scientific-media harassment,
triggered by experts only on the basis of laboratory molecular diagnostic analysis results.
Communiqués issued from China and Geneva were replicated, without being confronted
from a critical point of view and, above all, without stressing that coronaviruses have
always infected humans and always caused diarrhea and what people call a banal cold or common
cold. Absurd forecasts were extrapolated, as in 2009 with the H1N1 influenza virus.
And the risk of complications?
A cold can present as a benign, self-limiting disease; but it is known that all
respiratory diseases, however banal they may be considered, can severely affect the frailized
people, people with cardiocirculatory problems over 65 years, people with metabolic
disorders, immunosuppressed, transplanted and, above all , to poorly fed people without
shelter, and to those who do not have access to competent health teams that provide them with
effective medicines. This situation, clearly revealed for so many other diseases, is repeated
in all infections and COVID-19 is no exception.
Why does each individual become infected and react differently to viral infections?
The first step for a virus to infect a person depends on the virus's ability to recognize
"locks" or proteins on the surface of cells in certain organs, not all. Once it attaches to
its lock, it can penetrate the cell and put all the cellular machinery of the infected
subject at its service to replicate itself. It has been determined that there are individuals
with many "locks", others with few and others with easier "locks" to open, which is
determined by the genes. On the other hand, there is a defensive apparatus of proteins
encoded in DNA that is known by the name of "reactoma". In short, all humans are unique
living beings against microbial aggression and against the malignant transformations of our
tissues. Therefore, in certain individuals,
Is the coronavirus detected in China a new agent?
Those who launched the international alerts did not take into account data that shows
whether this virus or other similar viruses circulated in previous years. Or if people who
were already exposed to other coronavirus variants have partial or total protection against
the 2019 strain.
-Why do you not accept the extrapolation from one country to the other of the forecasts
issued by international agencies?
First, it is appropriate to compare the mortality and morbidity data with the number of
positive cases (those confirmed by the laboratory in relation to the number of severe cases
or the number of deceased persons). The first thing that emerges from the data, beyond the
biological criteria referring to the individual capacity to get sick and defend against viral
aggression, are doubts regarding the figures, if it is not considered that the affected
people did or did not have access to competent and equipped health, and if they received
timely treatments with adequate and bioequivalent drugs.
– Would these factors contribute to explain the differences in mortality and
morbidity between countries?
If there is no biological justification for individual predisposition, the difference
could be due to the quality of the medical institutions, the reasons that caused the time to
pass before the affected people go to health centers, or the quality of the training of
medical centers and the availability of resources to treat acute respiratory diseases. We
must impose moderation and use concrete data. There is no evidence to show that the 2019
coronavirus is more lethal than respiratory adenoviruses, influenza viruses, coronaviruses
from previous years, or rhinoviruses responsible for the common cold.
Fun fact: the European Union actually has no authority over health issues whatsoever. This
is a strict Member State prerogative. The countries can coordinate voluntarily (which is what
is currently arranged by the European Commission, but since there is no precedence it takes
time) - but there was no way to make any decision about that in Brussels.
Greetings from Europe. In these hard times I'd like to thank Trump for providing such gold
comedy material from just being a moron and reminding us all that it could always be
worse.
"The troops will help clean and deliver food in the designated "containment area" in a
one-mile (1.6 km) radius around the area where the contagion appears to have originated,
until the lockdown is lifted on March 25."
As part of such efforts, the government decided to designate call centers, clubs, gyms and
other establishments frequented by large numbers of people as high-risk areas and mobilize
more resources to quarantine them.
The move comes after an alarming new mass infection of the novel coronavirus was
reported at the call center in Guro, at a time when reports of new cases in Daegu, the
southeastern city at the center of the nation's COVID-19 outbreak, have been decreasing in
recent days.
My bet is that, since the South Korean government can't do preventive quarantine of
private business (because of the obvious fact it is a capitalist society), they are chasing
the virus where it bursts, quarantining the place where it is already given is a cluster.
That will make the South Korean map look like Swiss cheese - at best.
Might not it be prudent to take all personnel currently in basic training from all branches
and give them basic medic training and oxygen ventilator training and have them ready to
deploy where ever needed. The Lombard region of Italy is already considering lowering the
triage age from 70 to 60.
I know of a Miami emergency room tech who just finished a 72 hour shift, was given a 12
hour break who says they are overwhelmed and getting burned out.
MGM says guest at Vegas's 'The Mirage' tested positive
Denmark closes schools, will send 'non-critical' public employees home to work
New Jersey case total climbs to 23
DC Mayor declares public health emergency
Congressional doctor says up to
Cuomo confirms 39 new cases in NY, raising total to 212
First death in Indonesia
Confirmed cases in France top 2,000
Washington State to ban events over 200
Details of cruiseline industry's 'health and safety proposal' leak
'Waffle House' employee in Atlanta confirmed
UK reports 7th death
Chicago cancels St. Paddy's Day parade
NY sends in National Guard
IADB cancels meeting in Colombia as virus spreads across Latin America
Mnuchin says first part of virus stimulus plan will be ready in 2 days
Dr. Fauci warns virus 10x more deadly than flu and could infect millions if not handled
early
FEMA evacuates Atlanta office over coronavirus scare
3 Boeing workers test positie
Washington DC advises cancellation or postponement of all gatherings with more than 1,000
people
Harvard to prorate room and board for students
US cases surpass 1,000
UK Health Minister catches virus
Ireland, Bulgaria, Sweden report first deaths
Connecticut declares state of emergency
UK total hits 456 following largest daily jump on record (83 new cases)
Global cases pass 120,000
South Korea reports new outbreak in call center
Japan reportedly planning to declare state of emergency
* * *
Update (1650ET): Italy has confirmed that it will order all stores in the country that sell
items other than medicine and food to close. Factories can continue working, but all
restaurants and bars must close as well. The prime minister stressed that there is "no need for
a run on supermarkets."
Update (1635ET): NJ Governor and former Goldmanite Phil Murphy just announced 8 more cases
in the state, bringing its total to 23. The state has also confirmed its first case of
"community spread".
UPDATE: We now have 8 more presumptive positive cases of #COVID19 in New
Jersey.
• 3 female cases, 5 male cases
• 4 cases from Bergen County, 2 cases from Middlesex County, and 2 cases from Monmouth
County
• Range in age from 17- to 66-years-old
We've received $14 million in federal grants from @CDCgov to assist in our ongoing efforts
to contain the spread of #COVID19 . We're
working around the clock with our local, state, and federal partners to protect the health of
New Jerseyans.
b, time for a cooler head. Okay, as the Russian virologist said, a new virus is a 'meeting of
strangers', so we have to get to 'know' each other first and this takes time. So, just as we
got to 'know' the various flu varieties and built immunities to them, so too the virus gets
to 'know' us and undergoes its mutations. After all, if it kills all its hosts, it kills
itself.
The thing about 'bat' flu is that it seems to kill the old and the sick but leaves the
majority with well, flu and I'm one of those old folk (I'm almost 75 and with a bunch of
metal tubes in my heart but with a strong immune system, so wish me luck).
I think you're overreacting somewhat.
Is it because it's only the so-called developed nations that have a high preponderance
of older people that we're seeing this panic, or is because capitalism was on the verge of
meltdown anyway?
My feeling is that the barbarians have no compunction in sacrificing the old and sick.
Social Darwinism Rules OK! And don't forget, the wealthy are mostly old too!!
I'm not trying to minimise the impact, but my feeling is that it has more to do with the
falling rate of profit than the number of sick people.
Bruce Aylward, Deputy DG of WHO, who is interviewed in this article makes eminent sense
but his views have been universally ignored in the West (he spent time in China in February),
I more than suspect because of the West's racist anti-Chinese attitudes, else why ignore
virtually all of his recommendations?
... Massive testing in south Korea, 20k people a day, yields a lot of people in the
denominator who would count as healthy everywhere else. We don't get to have a "South Korean"
death rate unless we have south korean testing. With Euro testing we have to live with a
different Euro death rate. Another question would how many "European" or "American" cases
(i.e., cases in that are symptomatic enough to get officially recorded in Europe or America)
does south korea have? Then we could productively compare death rates.
Also, south korea is doing a lot compared to the west outside Italy:
In south korea right now, mobile testing centers are dispatched to places with new
positive results and widespread testing occurs, followed by isolation of positive cases.
They have closed schools. Universities throughout the country postponed the start of the
semester when only 31 official cases existed. Major buildings have thermal imaging at their
entrances. As many people as possible in public are wearing masks.
To all of that comes the fact that the South Korea outbreak was idiosyncratic, over half
of all cases emerging from Patient 31 associated with the Shincheonji church in a single
city, Daegu, which made containment easier.
Let's keep an eye on Germany since they're essentially doing nothing
Aside from testing, and it is unclear how widespread this is though we are told it is very
awesome and comprehensive and the absolute best. 2,120 cases right now in the earliest stages
of the pandemic.
'As of Sunday, 1,707 Americans had been tested for the novel coronavirus, according to the
CDC. South Korea, by contrast, has tested more than 189,000 people. The two countries
announced their first coronavirus cases on the same day.'
A looming shortage in lab materials is threatening to delay coronavirus test results
and cause officials to undercount the number of Americans with the virus.
CDC Director Robert Redfield told POLITICO on Tuesday that he is not confident that U.S.
labs have an adequate stock of the supplies used to extract genetic material from any virus
in a patient's sample -- a critical step in coronavirus testing.
"The availability of those reagents is obviously being looked at," he said, referring to
the chemicals used for preparing samples. "I'm confident of the actual test that we have,
but as people begin to operationalize the test, they realize there's other things they need
to do the test."
The growing scarcity of these "RNA extraction" kits is the latest trouble for U.S. labs,
which have struggled to implement widespread coronavirus testing in the seven weeks since
the country diagnosed its first case.
"Italy will close all restaurants, bars and shops across the country in an effort to curb
the spread of coronavirus, Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte announced on Wednesday.
Only pharmacies and supermarkets will be allowed to remain open, Conte added.
Restaurants will be allowed to be operational for food deliveries, but companies will be
required to implement remote working for all jobs, except those that require physical
presence, Conte added."
This sounds that they are getting advice from the Chinese and stopped waiting for the EU
'recommendations'. Next step is that the Italian gov need to offer some help to these
restaurants so that the people working there and those doing the deliveries get correctly
paid and that they and what they carry is clean.
"... One notable prediction: Osterholm lauds the Chinese for successfully working to control the outbreak -- but warns another wave of infection will follow upon workplaces and schools and shops reopening as the society begins returning to normal. ..."
One notable prediction: Osterholm lauds the Chinese for successfully working to
control the outbreak -- but warns another wave of infection will follow upon workplaces and
schools and shops reopening as the society begins returning to normal.
"The troops will help clean and deliver food in the designated "containment area" in a
one-mile (1.6 km) radius around the area where the contagion appears to have originated,
until the lockdown is lifted on March 25."
I find it puzzling that the new virus has spread all over Iran very quickly, whereas in other
countries it is more localised, including in China. It is also curious that it has infected
by far more of its lawmakers and government officials than elsewhere. Is there a reasonable,
rational explanation?
"... As I said on Monday, just looking at the number of COVID19 cases and the number of countries affected does not tell the full story. Of the 118,000 COVID19 cases reported globally in 114 countries, more than 90 percent of cases are in just four countries, and two of those have significantly declining epidemics. 81 countries have not reported any COVID19 cases, and 57 countries have reported 10 cases or less. ..."
"... "We’re in this together, to do the right things with calm and protect the citizens of the world. It’s doable" ..."
Today's WHO press briefing was excellent (link below). The questions being asked by journalists have improved significantly over
the last few weeks which has given the WHO team an opportunity to explain important points.
Today they looked at the situation in Iran, Korea, Italy and the sub Saharan Africa region. They also have officially declared
a Pandemic.
In the past two weeks, the number of cases of #COVID19 outside 🇨🇳 has increased 13-fold & the number of affected countries
has tripled.
There are now more than 118,000 cases in 114 countries, & 4,291 people have lost their lives.
Thousands more are fighting for their lives in hospitals.
In the days and weeks ahead, we expect to see the number of #COVID19 cases, the number of deaths, and the number of affected
countries climb even higher
WHO has been assessing this outbreak around the clock and we are deeply concerned both by the alarming levels of spread and
severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction
We have therefore made the assessment that #COVID19 can be characterized as a pandemic
Pandemic is not a word to use lightly or carelessly. It is a word that, if misused, can cause unreasonable
fear, or unjustified acceptance that the fight is over, leading to unnecessary suffering and death
Describing the situation as a pandemic does not change WHO’s assessment of the threat posed by this coronavirus. It
doesn’t change what WHO is doing, and it doesn’t change what countries should do"
We have never before seen a pandemic sparked by a coronavirus. And we have never before seen a pandemic that can be controlled
at the same time.
WHO has been in full response mode since we were notified of the first cases.
We have called every day for countries to take urgent and aggressive action.
We have rung the alarm bell loud and clear
As I said on Monday, just looking at the number of COVID19 cases and the number of countries affected does not tell the full
story. Of the 118,000 COVID19 cases reported globally in 114 countries, more than 90 percent of cases are in just four countries,
and two of those have significantly declining epidemics. 81 countries have not reported any COVID19 cases, and 57 countries have reported 10 cases or less.
We cannot say this loudly enough, or clearly enough, or often enough: all countries can still change the course of
this pandemic"
If countries detect, test, treat, isolate, trace, and mobilize their people in the response, those with a handful of COVID19
cases can prevent those cases becoming clusters, and those clusters becoming community transmission
Even those countries with community transmission or large clusters can turn the tide on this coronavirus.
Several countries have demonstrated that this virus can be suppressed and controlled.
The challenge for many countries who are now dealing with large COVID19 clusters or community transmission is not whether they
can do the same – it’s whether they will.
Some countries are struggling with a lack of capacity. Some countries are struggling with a lack of resources. Some countries
are struggling with a lack of resolve.
We are grateful for the measures being taken in Iran, Italy and South Korea to slow the virus and control their COVID19
epidemics.
We know that these measures are taking a heavy toll on societies and economies, just as they did in China.
All countries must strike a fine balance between protecting health, minimizing economic & social disruption & respecting
human rights
WHO’s mandate is public health. But we’re working with many partners across all sectors to mitigate the social and economic
consequences of this COVID19 pandemic
This is not just a public health crisis, it is a crisis that will touch every sector – so every sector and every individual
must be involved in the fight
I have said from the beginning that countries must take a whole-of-government, whole-of-society approach, built around a comprehensive
strategy to prevent infections, save lives and minimize impact
Let me summarize it in 4 key areas.
Prepare and be ready.
Detect, protect and treat.
Reduce transmission.
Innovate and learn"
I remind all countries that we are calling on you to (1):
activate & scale up your emergency response mechanisms
communicate with your people about the risks & how they can protect themselves
find, isolate, test & treat every #COVID19 case & trace every contact"
I remind all countries that we are calling on you to (2):
ready your hospitals
protect and train your #healthworkers
let’s all look out for each other"
There’s been so much attention on one word.
Let me give you some other words that matter much more, & that are much more actionable:
Prevention. Preparedness. Public health. Political leadership.
And most of all, People"
"We’re in this together, to do the right things with calm and protect the citizens of the world. It’s doable"
There have been a number of graphs out today looking at the rate of Covid infections. It is
exponential so far and appears to be tracking Italy's experience pretty well. If we continue
at this same rate we would reach the level at which other countries closed schools and had
mass transportation shutdowns in one or two weeks. Shutting down schools in particular will
be a tough decision. Kids seem to mostly be spared, but they may be disease vectors. OTOH if
they are shutdown a lot of health care workers will need to stay home. Near as I can tell I
would lose 10% or so of my staff and more on an intermittent basis.
As part of such efforts, the government decided to designate call centers, clubs, gyms and
other establishments frequented by large numbers of people as high-risk areas and mobilize
more resources to quarantine them.
The move comes after an alarming new mass infection of the novel coronavirus was
reported at the call center in Guro, at a time when reports of new cases in Daegu, the
southeastern city at the center of the nation's COVID-19 outbreak, have been decreasing in
recent days.
My bet is that, since the South Korean government can't do preventive quarantine of
private business (because of the obvious fact it is a capitalist society), they are chasing
the virus where it bursts, quarantining the place where it is already given is a cluster.
That will make the South Korean map look like Swiss cheese - at best.
For Pete's sake: "last year 37,000 Americans died from the common Flu" No. Last year, in the
US, that number of people died of combined pneumonia and possible flu (the vast majority of
flu diagnoses are never checked against a lab culture, so huge quantities of flu-like illness
are lumped in as flu) because the CDC lumps the categories together in order to promote the
CDC's income-generating flu shots. Every person who dies of pneumonia in US, whether they
have flu or not, is categorized as a flu death. CDC statistics, like all statistics out of
the US federal system, are not just useless, they are fictional.
"the US is particularly poorly set up to cope, thanks to our fragmented public health
system and overpriced, privatized and less than comprehensive health care. That bad situation
is made worse by the CDC being short on resources and hamstrung further by the Trump
Administration's PR imperatives."
Basically, it is expected that Europe manages the crisis less badly.
It has been interesting watching Dr. John Campbell's growing realisation & some shock
that everything is not well with the US healthcare system & he has received some abuse
but also support from Americans for his growing criticism.
His listing as requested of his 2 degrees & Phd, never mind his long front line
experience & his books I think shut some up for perhaps thinking that he was only a
nurse, but perhaps he shouda gone to NakedCapitalism.
...It is the overwhelming of ICUs and the whole health care system that makes the new
virus much more deadly than it would be without overwhelmed ICUs.
That is because it is a NEW virus and we do not have a basic immunity against it in our
societies like we do have against common flu viruses.
For your age Pat, the death rate may be 5% with functional ICUs available. With
overwhelmed ICUs the death rate for your age will be above 50%.
Consider that Lombardy, which is now overwhelmed, has now a death rate over all cases of
6% while South Korea, which effectively limited the spread through early testing and is not
overwhelmed, limited the death rate to below 1%.
Whatever you may think of the blogger, he is absolutely 100% correct here. Executive
summary: if you extend the time period over which the epidemic occurs by testing and
quarantining, you reduce the risk that your health care system will collapse, like it has in
Italy. South Korea is the case where testing has prevented their health care system
collapsing. Their health care system has not collapsed. Italy's has.
And now we will wait and see what happens in the U.S. Trump is betting his re-election on
your being right.
Do you know why we know about the massive outbreak in Seattle? Because local physicians got
around federal regulations and created their own test!
Here's the incredible story:
Seattle is effectively in the position that Wuhan was on Jan. 1, when it first recognized it
had an outbreak of a new virus, but did not realize the scale of the problem or the speed at
which the virus was spreading, Bedford said.
From the standpoint of state propaganda and official gaslighting, I'm starting to get
flashbacks from Iraq 2004-2006,
Notable quotes:
"... The CDC confirmed eight days ago that the virus was in community transmission in the United States -- that it was infecting Americans who had neither traveled abroad nor were in contact with others who had. In South Korea, more than 66,650 people were tested within a week of its first case of community transmission, and it quickly became able to test 10,000 people a day. The United Kingdom, which has only 115 positive cases, has so far tested 18,083 people for the virus. The figures we gathered suggest that the American response to the coronavirus and the disease it causes, COVID-19, has been shockingly sluggish, especially compared with that of other developed countries. ..."
"... They said they would not test me because if I were wearing the recommended protective equipment, then I wouldn't have the coronavirus. ..."
"... This is not the ticket dispenser at the deli counter; it's a public health emergency! I am a registered nurse, and I need to know if I am positive before going back to caring for patients. ..."
"... There is a quote from the miniseries Chernobyl that seems appropriate to cite here: "When the truth offends, we lie and lie until we can no longer remember that it is even there, but it is still there. Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid." ..."
"... Our own patchwork, MBA infused health care delivery system is already showing signs of stress, when the full force of this storm has not even arrived yet: ..."
"... Health insurance tied to employment, high deductibles, lack of health insurance, a system attracted to profit making, reports of widespread sidelining of doctors and nurses (this is truly incredible!) from decision making, and a highly outsourced supply system don't inspire confidence. I hope the civic minded doctors and nurses regain control of the system, with others adapting to supporting roles. Otherwise, I predict we are in deep shit; ..."
The figures we gathered suggest that the American response to the coronavirus and the disease
it causes, COVID-19, has been shockingly sluggish, especially compared with that of other
developed countries.
The CDC confirmed eight days ago that the virus was in community
transmission in the United States -- that it was infecting Americans who had neither traveled
abroad nor were in contact with others who had. In South Korea, more than 66,650 people were
tested within a week of its first case of community transmission, and it quickly became able to
test 10,000 people a day. The United Kingdom, which has only 115 positive cases, has so far
tested 18,083 people for the virus. The figures we gathered suggest that the American response
to the coronavirus and the disease it causes, COVID-19, has been shockingly sluggish,
especially compared with that of other developed countries.
As a nurse, I'm very concerned that not enough is being done to stop the spread of the
coronavirus. I know because I am currently sick and in quarantine after caring for a patient
who tested positive. I'm awaiting "permission" from the federal government to allow for my
testing, even after my physician and county health professional ordered it. I volunteered to
be on the care team for this patient, who we knew was positive. I did this because I had all
the recommended protective gear and training from my employer. I did this assuming that if
something happened to me, of course I too would be cared for. Then, what was a small concern
after a few days of caring for this patient, became my reality: I started getting sick. When
employee health told me that my fever and other symptoms fit the criteria for potential
coronavirus, I was put on a 14-day self-quarantine.
ince the criteria was met, the testing
would be done. My doctor ordered the test through the county. The public county officer
called me and verified my symptoms and agreed with testing. But the National CDC would not
initiate testing.
They said they would not test me because if I were wearing the recommended
protective equipment, then I wouldn't have the coronavirus.
What kind of science-based answer
is that? What a ridiculous and uneducated response from the department that is in charge of
our health in this country. Later, they called back, and now it's an issue with something
called the "identifier number." They claim they prioritize running samples by illness
severity and that there are only so many to give out each day. So I have to wait in line to
find out the results. This is not the ticket dispenser at the deli counter; it's a public
health emergency! I am a registered nurse, and I need to know if I am positive before going
back to caring for patients. I am appalled at the level of bureaucracy that's preventing
nurses from getting tested. That is a health care decision my doctor and my county health
department agree with. Delaying this test puts the whole community at risk. I have the
backing of my union. Nurses aren't going to stand by and let this testing delay continue; we
are going to stand together to make sure we can protect our patients -- by being protected
ourselves.
As a nurse, I'm very concerned that not enough is being done to stop the spread of
the coronavirus. I know because I am currently sick and in quarantine after caring for a
patient who tested positive. I'm awaiting "permission" from the federal government to allow
for my testing, even after my physician and county health professional ordered it. I
volunteered to be on the care team for this patient, who we knew was positive. I did this
because I had all the recommended protective gear and training from my employer. I did this
assuming that if something happened to me, of course I too would be cared for. Then, what was
a small concern after a few days of caring for this patient, became my reality: I started
getting sick.
When employee health told me that my fever and other symptoms fit the criteria
for potential coronavirus, I was put on a 14-day self-quarantine.
Since the criteria was met,
the testing would be done. My doctor ordered the test through the county. The public county
officer called me and verified my symptoms and agreed with testing. But the National CDC
would not initiate testing. They said they would not test me because if I were wearing the
recommended protective equipment, then I wouldn't have the coronavirus.
What kind of
science-based answer is that? What a ridiculous and uneducated response from the department
that is in charge of our health in this country.
Later, they called back, and now it's an
issue with something called the "identifier number." They claim they prioritize running
samples by illness severity and that there are only so many to give out each day. So I have
to wait in line to find out the results.
This is not the ticket dispenser at the deli
counter; it's a public health emergency! I am a registered nurse, and I need to know if I am
positive before going back to caring for patients.
am appalled at the level of bureaucracy
that's preventing nurses from getting tested. That is a health care decision my doctor and my
county health department agree with. Delaying this test puts the whole community at risk. I
have the backing of my union. Nurses aren't going to stand by and let this testing delay
continue; we are going to stand together to make sure we can protect our patients -- by being
protected ourselves.
I volunteered to be on the care team for this patient, who we knew was
positive. I did this because I had all the recommended protective gear and training from my
employer.
There is a quote from the miniseries Chernobyl
that seems appropriate to cite here: "When the truth offends, we lie and lie until we can no
longer remember that it is even there, but it is still there. Every lie we tell incurs a debt
to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid."
A global post mortem of this crisis will eventually take place, as it is normal and
prudent to want to know what really happened, what worked, and what did not. Governments
and healthcare systems will be compared under a strong light and magnification. At that
point PR and propaganda will be of no help;
Our own patchwork, MBA infused health care delivery system is already showing signs of
stress, when the full force of this storm has not even arrived yet:
Health insurance tied to employment, high deductibles, lack of health insurance, a
system attracted to profit making, reports of widespread sidelining of doctors and nurses
(this is truly incredible!) from decision making, and a highly outsourced supply system
don't inspire confidence. I hope the civic minded doctors and nurses regain control of
the system, with others adapting to supporting roles. Otherwise, I predict we are in deep
shit;
I don't know how it will shake out for the various health care delivery systems we
have on our little planet. I suspect strong differences will emerge, and rewards and
fallouts will follow. The fallouts will be acute, because lives, and not mere financial
portfolios, were at stake. There will be winners and losers. But the worst outcome would
be to not learn the lessons.
"... Yes there are some trusted scientists at CDC and NIH, but none in the leadership. They are as corrupt and useless as any other important federal agency. ..."
"... As an example, NIH currently spends about $2.5 Billion per year on Alzheimers - close to 10% of the budget. ..."
Yes there are some trusted scientists at CDC and NIH, but none in the leadership. They are
as corrupt and useless as any other important federal agency. They have public relations
programs that include research, rather than the other way around. Even their public service
announcement videos are crude - the average junior high student could do better. But that is
what happens when everything is contracted out to the private sector - just like the
Pentagon!
Unfortunately it is a long and very complicated story that interests only the affected
patients and their small circles of friends. Perhaps the impending medical disaster will spur
a few people to look a little closer at these agencies run as slush funds for selected
important research institutions.
As an example, NIH currently spends about $2.5 Billion per year on Alzheimers - close to
10% of the budget. It has thrown huge sums at the problem for years and years, and still
there is not one effective treatment and nothing on the horizon.
Current theories result in
failure after failure, but they are incapable of developing new ideas or directions, and
there is little reason to expect this to change anytime soon. Just one more example of the
New Dark Ages...
"... Governor Andrew Cuomo attacked the CDC on Sunday after announcing another 16 confirmed coronavirus cases in New York. But as Cuomo explained, that number is too low because the state still hasn't been able to do enough testing to identify more cases. Seven labs in the state were ready to start testing as of Sunday, but couldn't because they are still waiting for federal approval, Cuomo said. ..."
Governor Andrew Cuomo attacked the CDC on
Sunday after announcing another 16 confirmed coronavirus cases in New York. But as Cuomo
explained, that number is too low because the state still hasn't been able to do enough testing
to identify more cases. Seven labs in the state were ready to start testing as of Sunday, but
couldn't because they are still waiting for federal approval, Cuomo said.
The governor held his press conference at one those facilities, Northwell Health Labs at the
Center for Advanced Medicine, a private laboratory in North New Hyde. He said that it was
"outrageous and ludicrous" that the lab was still waiting for CDC authorization: "C.D.C., wake
up, let the states test, let private labs test, let's increase as quickly as possible our
testing capacity so we can identify the positives, and not using this lab and other private
labs makes no sense."
... ... ...
On Saturday, 23,000 test kits arrived at the city's public health laboratory, according
to a HHS spokesperson . As of Saturday, roughly 120 people have been tested in the city,
and on Thursday, a Department of Health official warned that the city only had enough tests
left for about 1,000 people. The situation prompted city officials to send a letter to the CDC
pleading for more tests. Officials explained that "slow federal action" was holding back
testing capacity, and as a result, the city's ability to respond to the outbreak.
"... people who appear healthy can be asymptomatic so are therefore spreading the disease, which I believe that masks would help prevent. ..."
"... The problem is that there are no masks for everybody so these should be available for those who need them the most . This is a F*c*n*gly problematic issue and that is why there must be a campaign against massive mask usage. ..."
"... A healthy mucosal epithelium contains non-specific barriers to virus and other pathogens including our normal microbiota, enzymes and various types of fibers acting as a physico-chemical barrier for virus entry. In winter, these barriers are less efficient. ..."
"... The tide has now gone out, and has revealed that the US is swimming naked. ..."
By
Jerri-Lynn Scofield, who has worked as a securities lawyer and a derivatives trader. She is
currently writing a book about textile artisans.
I was chatting on Facebook the other day about the topic de jour – protecting friends,
family, and myself from coronavirus – with Dr. Sarah Borwein, an old friend and travel
buddy from my Oxford days. Sarah's a Canadian- trained doctor who has practiced family medicine
for more than 15 years in Hong Kong. She co-founded the Central Health Group.
I recently attended Sarah's wedding in that city in early January – and got out just
in time to avoid some of the more draconian travel restrictions that have since been imposed as
a result of the outbreak of the #COVID-19 coronavirus.. At least for now. And just before Hong
Kong imposed drastic restrictions that have allowed it to weather the coronavirus crisis while
recording only three deaths, so far.
She has an extensive professional history of dealing with infectious diseases in Asia. Prior
to commencing her practice in Hong Kong, she successfully ran the Infection Control program for
the only expatriate hospital in Beijing during the SARS period, also serving as liaison with
the World Health Organization. For a fuller account of her career and her thoughts on the
current crisis, see this interview in AD MediLink, Exclusive
Interview on COVID-19 with SARS Veteran Dr. Sarah Borwein .
I thought readers might be interested in some of the things Hong Kong is doing to combat the
virus.
Partial Lockdown
The city has been in partial lockdown from the middle of January, with schools and
universities, shut, employees encouraged to work from home, sports facilities and museums
closed down, and people told to avoid crowds according to the Financial Times, Hong Kong's
coronavirus response leads to sharp drop in flu cases . Hong Kong residents have accepted
these restrictions, since:
Hongkongers are particularly compliant with public health measures because the 2002-2003
Sars outbreak, which claimed almost 300 lives in the territory, is still fresh in many
people's minds.
The partial lockdown is neither easy nor cost-free, but it largely seems to have controlled
incidence of the disease, without paralysing Hong Kong. The city is close to mainland China and
has extensive economic and other ties. But so far, it has recorded only three deaths, according
to the South China Morning Post,
Coronavirus: Hong Kong records third death as five more cases confirmed, bringing total to
114 . And this for a city with population of roughly 7.5 million people.
Testing
There has been extensive texting for the coronavirus in Hong Kong – which is free.
This allows public health austhories to track the spread of the disease, and see that victims
get treated properly and promptly.
This record stands in contrast to the US, which has not yet managed to distribute tests
widely – let alone, as far as I can see, determine who will pay for testing.
The disease seems to have taken hold in In U.S., with cases exceeding 500 and deaths so far
recorded of 22, with 19 in Washington state, according to the New York Times, Cases of
Coronavirus Cross 500, and Deaths Rise to 22 .
The inability to test means that it's not possible to track the progress of the disease
properly, is as to determine from where a patient may have caught it. Nationwide in the US, a
fraction of people who are symptomatic or who may have been exposed to the virus have been
tested. Even India, which has so far managed to limit exposure of its population to foreign
sources of infection, has tested many more people – and is doing comprehensive screening
at its airports.
Which makes a lot of sense, as foreigners – tourists – are principal source of
the infection, Others are Indians returning from foreign climes, carrying with them the
disease. So far, India has reported 39 cases, a large cluster of which is an Italian tour group
that visited Rajasthan. Five other recent cases are non-resident Indians (NRIs), who returned
to India from Venice. We can only help as the temperature slowly rises as we approach the
Indian summer, that increase in temperature slows spread of the virus (see
Coronavirus cases rise to 39 as 5 found infected in Kerala ). Whether this will prove to be
the case is as yet unknown, but as Sarah discussed in her MediLink interview:
It is true that some viruses that are spread by respiratory droplets, as COVID-19 is
believed to, spread more easily when the air is cold and dry. In warm, humid conditions, they
fall to the ground more easily and that makes transmission harder.
But there is still a lot we don't know about exactly how COVID-19 is spread and the
effects climate may have on it. We do see it spreading in Singapore, which is warm and humid,
so who knows?
I should mention that there have been dark musing about the NRIs returning to the state of
Kerala from Venice – as they concealed their travel history and exposure. Kerala Health
Minister K.K. Shailaja has said these victims will be treated, but that this type of behavior
-- the deception – should be considered to be a crime.
Hong Kong has made it a criminal offence to lie to a health care provider about one's travel
or exposure history, according to Sarah; I wonder whether the US will attempt to do the
same?
Most of us have heard the advice for avoiding infection. I'm going to repeat this advice.
Those who know it all already, feel free to skip ahead. Those who've not seen such advice, pay
attention.
Wash your hands, with soap, properly and frequently. I posted this video last week, but some
readers may not have seen it:
WHO handwashing technique. Notice the attention to between the fingers, back of fingers,
and nails:
Hand sanitiser can be used as a stopgap until you can wash your hands, but the World Health
Organization says that only those that are 60% alcohol killl the virus. And hand washing is an
absolute must for hands that are visibly dirty.
Maintain social distance. Avoid crowds.
Cough or sneeze into a tissue, and dispose of it promptly and properly (I'm tossing mine
into my toilet, and flushing them away.).
Pay attention to your overall health. Eat well. Including plenty of fruits and vegetables.
Stay properly hydrated.
Get a 'flu shot if you haven't already. Although this won't protect you from coronavirus,
'flu can be a nasty disease in its own right, and catching it can land you in hospital or
quarantine. Not to mention getting sick with the 'flu overburdens health systems when resources
are needed elsewhere.
The procedures Hong Kong has put in place to control coronavirus have also led to a drastic
decline in 'flu cases,. In fact, its winter influenza season has ended more than a month
earlier than usual. 'Flu cases also dropped during the ARS crisis, according to the FT:
Data provided by the government's Centre for Health Protection show the incidence of
infection with influenza had fallen to less than 1 per cent by the end of February, marking
an end to the winter flu season, which normally extends to the end of March or into
April.
"A similar pattern happened in 2003 during Sars. All respiratory infection diseases were
down between March to September compared to 2002," said David Hui, a respiratory disease
expert from the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
"Influenza spread is one of the markers [of the coronavirus containment] as the same
principles of avoiding droplets and social contacts apply."
Ho Pak-leung, a leading microbiologist at the University of Hong Kong, said data showed
the flu season had shortened from an average of 98.7 days to 34 days this year.
Use of Masks?
Masks are not very useful, and many places are out of stock anyway, but Sarah says these can
prevent you from passing along any infection you might have to others. She says the advice to
avoid masks outright is wrong. There is a place for them, they're just not a panacea, and in
any case, if used improperly, they may actually increase your risk.
From her Medilink interview:
The shortage of masks has many people feeling quite anxious and unprotected. But masks are
NOT very effective at preventing transmission of viral infections, particularly when worn by
healthy people. They are by no means the most important measure you can take to protect your
health. In fact, if you wear a mask incorrectly, touch or adjust it frequently, re-use it, or
fail to wash your hands before putting it on and after taking it off, you may actually
increase your risk.
Who should wear a mask:
– People who are sick, to prevent them spreading their viral droplets when they
cough or sneeze.
– People caring for sick people at close quarters.
– In a health-care setting.
– People whose occupation requires them to have close contact with clients.
As it has become socially unacceptable in Hong Kong to NOT wear a mask, there may be
situations in which you might choose to wear a mask simply to make other people feel
comfortable. But in general, healthy people do not need to wear masks, except when they need
to be in crowded places, or with possibly sick people.
Infection Control Protocol?
This to me was the most striking thing I learned from our conversation. I don't think
anything like this infection control protocol is yet in place – certainly not throughout
the US, nor even in high-risk areas. And it it should be.
From a text from Sarah:
We have triage at the door. People with high-risk travel history can't be seen, have to go
directly to government hospital if symptomatic; or if just for routine care, wait 14 days
after return (all of which must be healthy). Low risk people with symptoms we isolate
immediately; they never enter the main clinic. And we wear PPE [i.e., personal protective
equipment] to see them.
In Hong Kong, people are being told to get tested if you think you have been exposed, and/or
are symptomatic. Anyone with a fever or respiratory symptoms is tested as a matter of course,
upon recommendation of a doctor.
To be fair, I should mention that Hong Kong did not initially test so extensively. Sarah
texted me:
Testing has been ramped up gradually. Initially they just added testing of all pneumonia
patients, regarless of epidemiological link. The testing of all mildly symptomatic patients
with no epidemiologic link is relatively new. A few weeks ago they started offering it in the
public hospital A&E's and public outpatient clinics. Then last week they extended that to
private sentinel clinics (of which we are one) and this week have extended it to all private
clinics
But in the US, even if your doctor wants to test you, no testing kit may be available to
conduct the test. This is simply insane, so many weeks, after the disease has taken root in so
many places, and after the World Health Organization made accurate tests available months
ago.
Hong Kong has also made it easier for patients to test themselves, without involving a
health care provider. From a message from Sarah:
They also pioneered a test that patients could do themselves – ie they self-collect
a "deep throat saliva" sample at home. That reduces risk of exposure to healthcare workers,
as taking nasopharyngeal swabs is "aerosol generating"
So there is considerable scope for United States to learn from Hong Kong's experience and
ramp up its testing – without appreciably increasing risk to its health care
providers.
One thing talking to Sarah has driven home to me is how poor the comparative US
infrastructure for dealing with such a disease is – although she didn't say so in so many
words. These are my words, but I don't think she would dispute the conclusion.
Contrast that to Hong Kong. From her MediLink interview:
The situation is much less serious in Hong Kong than in mainland China, especially Wuhan
and Hubei. We are quite exposed here, because of our close ties with the mainland, but we
have a very strong public health system, good resources, and deep experience in managing
epidemics. After SARS, Hong Kong set up the Centre for Health Protection (CHP) , which is our
version of the CDC in the United States .
When COVID-19 emerged, there was already an epidemic management plan in place that just had
to be activated. The four best prepared places in Asia are probably Hong Kong, Singapore,
Thailand and South Korea.
Her MediLink interview is upbeat in some ways. Perhaps a better description would be
measured. She points out that COVID-19 is less lethal than SARS. But because of that fact, it's
much easier to spread:
COVID-19 and SARS do
share some common features: they belong to the same family of viruses, they both seem to have
jumped from animals to humans, they both originated in China and both can cause severe
pneumonia.
But there are some important differences. SARS was more lethal than COVID-19, but less easily
transmitted. It went straight for the lungs, and caused severe pneumonia which became
transmissible only when patients were quite severely ill and usually by then in hospital.
About 10%
died .
COVID-19, on the other hand, seems to be more likely to replicate in the upper respiratory
tract and it seems like individuals might produce a lot of virus when they are only mildly
symptomatic. It's not known how many people with COVID-19 develop pneumonia, but of the ones
who do, about 20% get severely ill and fewer than 2% die. Overall death rates are still not
known for sure, but are probably less than 1%.
So COVID-19 is a lot less lethal than SARS, but harder to control because it spreads more
easily and by people with milder symptoms. That's why, despite being considerably less likely
to kill you than SARS was, COVID-19 has still in total killed
more people in 6 weeks than SARS did in eight months.
We should recognise considerable advances in infection control have been made since that
time. Alas, many countries seem not to have absorbed these lessons – including the United
States. Or if they did, that knowledge has failed to translate into effective responses. From
MediLink:
Another important difference is that medical science has advanced considerably in the 17
years since SARS. In 2003, it took months to identify the virus and develop a test. For
COVID-19 that happened within a couple of weeks. That has made identifying patients a great
deal easier. In addition, there are newer treatments and some vaccine prospects already in
the works.
Epidemic control is something that has confounded the US political system. The relevant
public health officials may know what needs to be done, they're not doing it. That may simply
be, at least in part, because resources are simply not available. It's also due to the way we
divide authority for such problems, with responsibility largelylodged at the state and local
level. And the reflexive reliance on neoliberal, market-based solutions is also at fault. There
are some things government is uniquely positioned to provide, but many are no longer capable of
recognising that simple fact.
Over to Sarah's MediLink interview again:
The most important thing we learned from SARS was that infectious diseases do not respect
borders or government edicts, and cannot be hidden. It requires international cooperation,
transparency and sharing of information to control an epidemic.
We also learned the importance of providing good, balanced, reliable information to the
public. In any epidemic, there is the outbreak of disease and then there is the epidemic of
panic. And nowadays, there is also what the WHO has termed the Infodemic , the explosion
of information about the epidemic. Some of it is good information, but some of it is rumour,
myth, speculation and conspiracy theory, and those things feed the anxiety. It can be hard to
sort out which information to believe, so it is important to choose trustworthy sources.
Panic and misinformation make controlling the outbreak more difficult.
On a day when markets are melting down, and people are succumbing to panic,I can only say,
keep calm. And to remind everyone: wash your hands!
The only query I would have with that is in reference to masks, is that people who appear
healthy can be asymptomatic so are therefore spreading the disease, which I believe that
masks would help prevent.
The problem is that there are no masks for everybody so these should be available for
those who need them the most . This is a F*c*n*gly problematic issue and that is why there
must be a campaign against massive mask usage.
It has to be repeated 100 1000 1000000s times
but we f*c**gl* avoid to understand this necessity.
Today has been a day of overreaction indeed. I would point as an addition to Sarah remarks
on disease spreading that regarding weather, temperature and humidity as important or even
more important than virus air transmission or fomites-led transmission is our susceptibility
to infection.
A healthy mucosal epithelium contains non-specific barriers to virus and other
pathogens including our normal microbiota, enzymes and various types of fibers acting as a
physico-chemical barrier for virus entry. In winter, these barriers are less efficient.
The
same virus load will not have the same effect in winter or in summer in the nasopharyngeal
tract. In this sense HK and NY are not comparable. Regarding the lessons of SARS epidemics,
if one of them is to keep calm that is a goos lesson. If another lessons is to identify the
sites that need stronger protection, that is another good lesson. A third good lesson would
be awareness on precautions to be taken personally. Anyway given differences between SARS1
and 2 in virulence and epidemiology there are not many more lessons to learn. Again comparing
Singapore or HK with NY in terms of potential fatalities is not spot on for weather
reasons.
The main failure in Italy first, or in Spain now, has IMO been on lack of awareness. No
overreaction is needed but good reaction would have made things better if the objective is to
reduce fatalities and avoid HC services being overwhelmed. Focus on safety in hospitals is a
must. Focusing on safety in residences for the elder is a second must (this has been noticed
too late for many).
This evening I will have a discussion with my son that wants to go to a concert next
saturday in a closed ambient. I think that the government will come to my rescue and forbid
this class of events.
Right the major fiasco was with CDC testing kits. I do not see any other. Exaggerating the
threat would only make hoarding panic that engult the USA worse. Of source Trump desire to
protect stock market at any human or other cost was cruel and silly, but Trump is cruel and silly
in many other areas as well.
Quarantine for retired persons might really help in areas with high number of
infections.
Notable quotes:
"... For the last several weeks, we have seen the president and top administration officials presenting the public with misleading and outright false information in an effort to conceal the magnitude of the problem and the extent of their initial failures. The president has been unwilling to tell the public the truth about the situation because he evidently cares more about the short-term political implications than he does about protecting the public: ..."
The AP
reports on more of the Trump White House's bungling of the coronavirus response:
The White House overruled health officials who wanted to recommend that elderly and
physically fragile Americans be advised not to fly on commercial airlines because of the new
coronavirus, a federal official told The Associated Press.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention submitted the plan this week as a way of
trying to control the virus, but White House officials ordered the air travel recommendation
be removed, said the official who had direct knowledge of the plan. Trump administration
officials have since suggested certain people should consider not traveling, but they have
stopped short of the stronger guidance sought by the CDC.
There is no good reason for the White House to prevent this recommendation from being made
public. This is another example of how the president and his top officials are trying to keep
up the pretense that the outbreak is much less dangerous than it actually is, and in doing so
they are helping to make the outbreak worse than it has to be.
For the last several weeks, we have seen the president and top administration officials
presenting the public with
misleading and outright false information in an effort to
conceal the magnitude of the problem and the extent of their initial failures. The
president has been
unwilling to tell the public the truth about the situation because he evidently cares more
about the short-term political implications than he does about protecting the public:
Even as the government's scientists and leading health experts raised the alarm early and
pushed for aggressive action, they faced resistance and doubt at the White House --
especially from the president -- about spooking financial markets and inciting panic.
"It's going to all work out," Mr. Trump said as recently as Thursday night. "Everybody has
to be calm. It's going to work out."
Justin Fox
comments on the president's terrible messaging:
The biggest problem, though, is simply the way that the president talks about the disease.
His instinct at every turn is to downplay its danger and significance.
Minimizing the danger and significance of the outbreak ensured that the government's
response was less urgent and focused than it could have been. It encouraged people to take it
less seriously and thus made it more likely that the virus would spread. Then when the severity
of the problem became undeniable, the earlier discredited happy talk makes it easier for people
to disbelieve what the government tells them in the future.
The administration had time to prepare a more effective response, but as I
said last week the administration frittered away the time they had. They were still
preoccupied with keeping the
virus out rather than trying to manage its spread once it arrived here, as it was inevitably
going to do:
"We have contained this. I won't say airtight but pretty close to airtight," White House
economic adviser Larry Kudlow said in a television interview on Feb. 25, echoing Trump's
tweeted declaration that the virus was "very much under control" in the United States.
But it wasn't, and the administration's rosy messaging was fundamentally at odds with a
growing cacophony of alarm bells inside and outside the U.S. government. Since January,
epidemiologists, former U.S. public health officials and experts have been warning, publicly
and privately, that the administration's insistence that containment was -- and should remain
-- the primary way to confront an emerging infectious disease was a grave mistake.
The initial response and the stubborn refusal to adapt to new developments have meant that
the U.S. is in a much worse position in handling this outbreak than many other countries. Max
Nisen
comments on the lack of testing in the U.S.:
Don't cheer just yet. The lower case count doesn't mean Americans are doing a better job
of containing the virus; rather, it reflects the fact that the U.S. is badly behind in its
ability to test people. The Centers for Disease Control stopped disclosing how many people it
has tested as of Monday, but an analysis by The Atlantic could only confirm 1,895 tests.
Switzerland, a country with fewer residents than New Jersey, has tested nearly twice as many
people. The U.K., which has far fewer cases, has tested over 20,000. This gap is particularly
worrisome given evidence of community spread in a number of different states and a high death
count, both of which suggest the number of cases will jump as more tests are conducted.
Capacity is finally ramping up, but only after weeks of delays prompted by unforced errors
and botched early test kits from the CDC. The continuing inability to test broadly is leading
to missed cases, more infections, and an outbreak that will be bigger than it needed to
be.
The administration not only bungled their initial response, but they have also been
extremely resistant to admitting error. Trump's appointees are reluctant to contradict the
president when he spouts nonsense about the outbreak, and that in turn makes it more difficult
for them to communicate clearly and consistently with the public. All of this serves to
undermine public trust in the government's response, and it prevents health officials from
being able to do their jobs without political interference. The federal government's response
has been
hampered by a president who wants to make people think that the problem isn't that bad and
is already being dealt with successfully:
At the White House, Trump and many of his aides were initially skeptical of just how
serious the coronavirus threat was, while the president often seemed uninterested as long as
the virus was abroad. At first, when he began to engage, he downplayed the threat -- "The
Coronavirus is very much under control in the USA," he tweeted in late February -- and became
a font of misinformation and confusion, further muddling his administration's response.
On Friday, visiting the CDC in Atlanta, the president spewed more falsehoods when he
claimed, incorrectly: "Anybody that needs a test, gets a test. They're there. They have the
tests. And the tests are beautiful."
When the president lies about such a serious matter, he is causing unnecessary confusion and
he is sending exactly the wrong message that remedying earlier failures is not an urgent
priority. Because Trump's primary concern is making himself look good in the short term, he is
willing to risk a worse outbreak. During his visit to the CDC, the president went on in an even
more bizarre vein to praise the tests by
comparing them to his "perfect call" with the Ukrainian president last summer that led to
his impeachment:
In an attempt to express confidence in the CDC's coronavirus test (the agency's second
attempt after the first one it developed failed), Trump offered an unorthodox comparison from
the last enormous crisis to swamp his presidency. The tests are just like his
impeachment-causing attempt to pressure a foreign government to help him get reelected. "The
tests are all perfect like the letter was perfect. The transcription was perfect. Right? This
was not as perfect as that but pretty good," Trump told reporters after falsely stating,
again, that anyone who needed a test right now could get one.
This morning the president was back at it this morning with more self-serving
misinformation:
We have a perfectly coordinated and fine tuned plan at the White House for our attack on
CoronaVirus. We moved VERY early to close borders to certain areas, which was a Godsend. V.P.
is doing a great job. The Fake News Media is doing everything possible to make us look bad.
Sad!
The president needs people to think that everything he does is perfect, so he is incapable
of acknowledging his failures and prefers to vilify accurate reporting about those failures. He
cannot help but mismanage
the government response because he cannot put the national interest ahead of his own
selfishness. An untold number of Americans will be paying a steep price for the president's
unfitness for office in the weeks and months to come.
I wish you had thought a bit into the future before you voted him. Did you really think
things wouldn't turn out EXACTLY the way they have? Honestly, it's to rime tell the truth
here.
It's the Democrats who should have thought a bit into the future. It was the identity and
known character and policies of Trump's opponent that tipped my vote to Trump. And no,
obviously I didn't think things would turn out "exactly" this way. I thought if I put up with
his repulsive manner I'd get maybe a third of his main campaign promises and that the GOP
establishment would get the hiding it deserves. Boy, was I wrong.
I take you believe Hillary Clinton was worse than Trump. Fair enough, but do you still think
our country would be in the state it is now? In what way could she possibly be worse than
what we have now with Trump?
It's better for Trumpism to have burst like a zit onto the mirror, no matter how disgusting,
because it was all there anyway under Bush and Cheney, it was there alongside "Barack the
magic... birth certificate!" You can fairly easily wash off the stain of Bush and Rumsfeld,
you can sort of start to forget their sublime horror, the exact same level of lies and utter
mismanagement, but you can't wash off a man like Trump, ever. His portrait will be in the
White House so future Americans can see what we're capable of, and hopefully be more vigilant
about the subtle and polished lies and civilized outrages. We needed this barbaric display to
get some clarity.
"The president has been about the situation because he evidently cares more about the
short-term political implications than he does about protecting the public"
It's no different from the first two years of his presidency. He already betrayed those of
us who voted for the America First promises on immigration and ending the wars. He spent most
of his doing favors for Wall Street, Israel, and Saudi Arabia instead. Now he's going to
betray the many vulnerable elders who voted for him, risking their illness and even death by
his selfish evasions and lies. He's a con artist. A fake.
"... Reliable figures for infection and mortality rates should arrive before the Presidential election. It will be interesting if there is an appreciable differential between mortality rates in countries where healthcare is allocated according to medical need and countries where healthcare is allocated according to private insurance cover. ..."
The American CDC rejected the notion of replicating the WHO approved Coronavirus test, in
favour of developing its own test (resulting in a delayed launch date and continued lag in delivery).
The CDC test is being billed at $1,200 (for those lucky enough to have sufficient insurance). In S. Korea testing is free
if a prospective patient is running a temperature. If the subject is not running a temperature the test is billed at $120
(presumably this is an approximation of cost price). Some folks in America are going to make a whole pile of money out of the
situation
Reliable figures for infection and mortality rates should arrive before the Presidential
election. It will be interesting if there is an appreciable differential between mortality
rates in countries where healthcare is allocated according to medical need and countries
where healthcare is allocated according to private insurance cover.
If America does experience heightened mortality rates to other industrialised countries, will
this impact on the outcome of the election?
Testing around the U.S. was hampered when local officials reported flaws in the kits the CDC
sent. Replacements didn't come until weeks later, which left most hospitals and clinics short
of tests. Shifting guidelines for who should get the few tests available also confused
hospitals, Diaz said.
At the time, there had still been just the single case reported in Seattle. Trevor Bedford,
a Harvard-trained researcher and viral genome expert at the city's Fred Hutchinson Cancer
Research Center, wondered why. He had spent weeks analyzing genomes of patients from around the
world, tracing minor mutations to deduce how Covid-19 emerged and spread.
The early work found that infections were doubling roughly every six days, and that for
every three to four rounds of transmission -- or once every 20 to 30 days -- one minor mutation
was occurring, Bedford said in a Feb. 13 interview. "We are watching very carefully for more
local transmission," he said at the time.
They soon found it: a teenager with mild symptoms who attended a high school about 15 miles
from where the first case was identified -- someone who wouldn't have been tested because he or
she didn't meet the criteria. But the results showed up in the Seattle Flu Study, a project on
which Bedford is a lead scientist.
The new case, announced Feb. 28, was genetically identical to the original except for three
minor mutations in the virus. And it contained a key genetic variant that was present only in
two of 59 viral samples from China. This type of circumstantial evidence stops just short of
proving a chain of transmission. It's possible the Washington cluster didn't derive from the
known Patient Zero, but another case that came into Washington the same time and went
undetected. Still, Bedford calculated a 97 percent probability the new case was a direct
descendant -- one that hadn't been spotted because of the narrow testing at that time,
Bedford wrote
in a March 2 post.
"This lack of testing was a critical error and allowed an outbreak in Snohomish County and
surroundings to grow to a sizable problem before it was even detected," he wrote.
... ... ...
All told, 31 Kirkland firefighters -- almost a third of the department -- in
addition to 10 from other communities as well as some relatives have been quarantined, adding
to the stress on emergency teams.
Bedford, the genome expert, is working with University of Washington researchers to
understand the extent of the spread. Last week, the university started using its own virus
test, a modified version of one created by the World Health Organization. When a positive
result is found in a sample, the researchers perform a second round of tests to sequence the
viral genome.
Pavitra Roychoudhury, a university researcher in charge of sequencing, said technicians have
been working late into the night to complete as many samples and sequences as possible. She
puts her toddler to bed and then logs back into her computer.
On a call with reporters on Monday, Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC's National Center
for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, called Bedford's theory "an interesting hypothesis"
but said other possibilities have not been ruled out. "There are alternate explanations of the
same findings," she said. There may have been a "secondary seeding" in the community, she said,
as more recent cases in Washington match viral sequences posted in China.
So far, Bedford has reported, sequencing still suggests the transmission is related to the
original patient -- and the number of active infections could reach 1,100 by March 10 and 2,000
by March 15.
What's more, the state's early cases may have seeded infections now exploding on the
cruise ship Grand Princess off California's coast, he tweeted this week. Researchers from
the University of California at San Francisco have said the viral strain from a patient
infected on the ship is similar to the cluster circulating in Washington state. -- With
assistance by Emma Court and Michelle Fay Cortez
As of March 6, there were at least 228
confirmed cases of the new coronavirus -- the WHO has officially
named the disease that this virus causes COVID-19 -- across the U.S, the majority of which
have been in Washington state. Most of the initial cases were people recently traveled to China
or were released from quarantine aboard the Diamond Princess cruise
ship , which experienced an outbreak last month. Increasingly, though, new cases have
cropped up in people who have no known association with outbreak epicenters, suggesting that
the virus is spreading undetected through person-to-person contact and has been for weeks.
COVID-19 cases have been confirmed in 14
states, including Washington, Oregon, California, Arizona, Illinois, Wisconsin, Massachusetts,
Rhode Island, New York
, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, New Jersey, Maryland, and
Indiana . In Washington State, where most coronavirus fatalities in the U.S. so far has
occurred, it's possible that
as many as 1,500 people may have been infected . There's also an outbreak at a long-term
care facility, the Life Care Center, in Kirkland, Washington, where 50 residents and employees
reportedly have COVID-19 symptoms.
On Thursday, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in New York reached 22, and 2,773
others in the state are under quarantines, the New York
Times reports. The same day, Maryland and New Jersey also reported new confirmed
cases; in total, the former state now has
three cases while the latter has two . Most recently,
Indiana
reported its first confirmed case.
"... During the 2019-2020 influenza season, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimate that 15 million people came down with flu, of whom 140,000 required hospitalisation. 8,200 deaths were recorded. Over a 4-month period, that averages to 2,050 deaths per month. This is in a country with 1/4 of the population of China's. ..."
"... If the White House failed to recognise a major health crisis already simmering on its own doorstep, what hope can be held for when the coronavirus epidemic starts sweeping through the inland US, taking out the elderly, the poor and the homeless? ..."
The White House should not have needed to look very far to China to prepare for a
coronavirus epidemic within the US.
During the 2019-2020 influenza season, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
estimate that 15 million people came down with flu, of whom 140,000 required hospitalisation.
8,200 deaths were recorded. Over a 4-month period, that averages to 2,050 deaths per month.
This is in a country with 1/4 of the population of China's.
If the White House failed to recognise a major health crisis already simmering on its own
doorstep, what hope can be held for when the coronavirus epidemic starts sweeping through
the inland US, taking out the elderly, the poor and the homeless?
The genetic sequences of patients in the Seattle-King County region suggest the virus has
been circulating there since about mid-January, when the first U.S. patient -- a man who
returned from Wuhan -- was diagnosed, Bedford wrote in the analysis, published online6
.
The spread of the virus has gone undetected in part because many infected people experience
only mild infections that could be confused for a cold or the flu, and in part because of
stumbles in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's effort to develop test kits for
state and local public health laboratories, which has meant very little testing has been done
in the country until the past few days.
... ... ...
"January 1 in Wuhan was March 1 in Seattle," Bedford told STAT. "Now would be the time to
start these interventions rather than waiting three weeks."
... ... ...
The stringent actions China took drove down new infections in Hubei province
-- where Wuhan is located -- to low levels, though transmission continues there. Other cities
in the country that started to see cases were able, with the same measures, to avoid the
explosive transmission Wuhan had experienced. Flattening the epidemic curve, as that phenomenon
is called, helps health care systems continue to function. An eruption of cases overtaxes
hospitals, leading to deaths that otherwise could have been avoided.
"China saw not much of an epidemic outside of Hubei because they acted early," Bedford
said.
The Last but not LeastTechnology is dominated by
two types of people: those who understand what they do not manage and those who manage what they do not understand ~Archibald Putt.
Ph.D
FAIR USE NOTICEThis site contains
copyrighted material the use of which has not always been specifically
authorized by the copyright owner. We are making such material available
to advance understanding of computer science, IT technology, economic, scientific, and social
issues. We believe this constitutes a 'fair use' of any such
copyrighted material as provided by section 107 of the US Copyright Law according to which
such material can be distributed without profit exclusively for research and educational purposes.
This is a Spartan WHYFF (We Help You For Free)
site written by people for whom English is not a native language. Grammar and spelling errors should
be expected. The site contain some broken links as it develops like a living tree...
You can use PayPal to make a contribution, supporting development
of this site and speed up access. In case softpanorama.org is down you can use the at softpanorama.info
Disclaimer:
The statements, views and opinions presented on this web page are those of the author (or
referenced source) and are
not endorsed by, nor do they necessarily reflect, the opinions of the author present and former employers, SDNP or any other organization the author may be associated with.We do not warrant the correctness
of the information provided or its fitness for any purpose.
The site uses AdSense so you need to be aware of Google privacy policy. You you do not want to be
tracked by Google please disable Javascript for this site. This site is perfectly usable without
Javascript.
FILE PHOTO: Tulsi Gabbard speaks during the US Democratic presidential
debate in Atlanta, Georgia, November 20, 2019 © Reuters / Brendan McDermid
Follow RT on
