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Due to the volume introductory article was moved to SARS-NCOV-2 and the danger of gain of function experiments
This is a textbook case how excessive secrecy and illegal and/or dangerous/reckless bioresearch directed on creation of Frankenstein viruses undermines the legitimacy of governments, and create the background to wild rumors and speculation extremely damaging to the governments, including but not limited to governments of China (Wuhan biolab activities; the only BSL-4 virology lab in China) and the USA (UNC Dr. Ralph Baric biolab, and Fort Detrick biolab activities). There is no good players in this story.
For the list of top articles see Recommended Links section
Sep 23, 2020 | www.blacklistednews.com
Via: Zenodo :
The COVID-19 pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 has led to over 910,000 deaths worldwide and unprecedented decimation of the global economy. Despite its tremendous impact, the origin of SARS-CoV-2 has remained mysterious and controversial. The natural origin theory, although widely accepted, lacks substantial support. The alternative theory that the virus may have come from a research laboratory is, however, strictly censored on peer-reviewed scientific journals. Nonetheless, SARS-CoV-2 shows biological characteristics that are inconsistent with a naturally occurring, zoonotic virus. In this report, we describe the genomic, structural, medical, and literature evidence, which, when considered together, strongly contradicts the natural origin theory. The evidence shows that SARS-CoV-2 should be a laboratory product created by using bat coronaviruses ZC45 and/or ZXC21 as a template and/or backbone. Building upon the evidence, we further postulate a synthetic route for SARS-CoV-2, demonstrating that the laboratory-creation of this coronavirus is convenient and can be accomplished in approximately six months. Our work emphasizes the need for an independent investigation into the relevant research laboratories. It also argues for a critical look into certain recently published data, which, albeit problematic, was used to support and claim a natural origin of SARS-CoV-2. From a public health perspective, these actions are necessary as knowledge of the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and of how the virus entered the human population are of pivotal importance in the fundamental control of the COVID-19 pandemic as well as in preventing similar, future pandemics.
Aug 05, 2020 | turcopolier.typepad.com
The rattling of sabres between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the U.S. is becoming louder, and causing many to ponder if World War III is not far off. There are those in the international community increasingly alarmed given the COVID situation, the South China Sea imbroglio, and China's growing threat that they intend to invade and absorb Taiwan into Communist China within a year. These items have led to the belief that World War III is on the horizon.
Just recently, Dr.Leonid Roshal, a noted Moscow physician, hostage negotiator, and advisor to the WHO remarked that the COVID pandemic is a dry run for World War III, and that COVID-19 is practice for future biological warfare. Covid-19 pandemic has functioned as a "rehearsal for biological warfare," Dr. Roshal also believes that the rapidly-spreading virus was a test for the world's healthcare systems.
In an interview with Forbes, Professor Roshal, President of the Research Institute of Emergency Pediatric Surgery and Traumatology, explained that not all nations were ready for a mass influx of patients, and their lack of preparation has been exposed by the pandemic.
"When I analyze the current situation, I understand that this is a rehearsal for biological warfare," he explained. "I am not saying that this virus was created by humans... but this is a test of the health system's strength, including the country's biological defense."
In addition, Hong Kong-based virologist Yan Li-Meng, currently in hiding at an undisclosed location, claims that the COVID-19 coronavirus came from a People's Liberation Army lab, and not from a Wuhan wet market as Beijing has claimed. Speaking on a live stream interview on Taiwan's News Agency Lude Press, she said, "At that time, I clearly assessed that the virus came from a Chinese Communist Party military lab. The Wuhan wet market was just used as a decoy." Yan has been in hiding in the U.S. after fleeing Hong Kong in April.
Chinese PLA Senior Colonel Ren Guoqiang stated recently that TAIWAN WILL be reunified with the rest of China - and any attempt by the United States to interfere is futile and dangerous. Senior Colonel Guoqiang is Deputy Director of the Ministry of Defense's Information Office, and Chinese Defense Ministry Spokesman. J
Diana Croissant , 05 August 2020 at 03:44 PMJack , 05 August 2020 at 03:58 PM
Well, this is certainly a depressing and frightening post. I can't say, however, that I have been thinking along the same lines. However, since I am basically a nobody, I have tried to assure myself that I am being paranoid. So, it's not helping that some people who are much more knowledgeable have expressed in print some of the fears I have been feeling over these months dealing with the pandemic.
All I can do is pray and hold fast to my faith in God. Perhaps He will lift up the people who can deter us from the predictions of this post. (But are we worthy of being saved?)Horatio , 05 August 2020 at 04:51 PM
I don't believe there will be any direct military conflict. However, we can expect some saber rattling from both sides.
Sec.Azhar is leading a US delegation to Taiwan. On another note Taiwan ain't HK. They have an independent government. While they will eventually be overwhelmed in any military conflict with China if no other country intervenes on Taiwan's side, they definitely have the capability to inflict a black eye.
The CCP has been emboldened precisely because the US government has actively abetted their rapaciousness for many decades under both parties. From Clinton's MFN designation to Bush & Obama administrations actively supporting the shuttering of US manufacturing.
Trump is making the first course correction albeit in a limited manner with tariffs. He has however changed the tone in an important manner by no longer just kowtowing to whatever the CCP wants.
This story of ARM China exemplifies CCP long-term policy of requiring JVs to access the Chinese market and once technology and know-how have been successfully transferred, then expropriating it. The west in general and the US in particular have turned a blind eye. Huawei got going by stealing cisco source code and design.
It is high time for the US to make the totalitarian Chinese communists pay a price and directly take the fight to them economically and financially. The CCP must be doing their best to insure a Biden win to return to the status quo or wait another Trump term and hope an establishment Democrat or Republican wins after. They have bought and paid the establishment politicians, entire think-tanks, many in academia and the media.nbsp; turcopolier , 05 August 2020 at 05:04 PM
More sinophobic drivel and propaganda. Is it coming from Bannon, Navarro,Fox News, and the other similar warmongering outfits ? This type of propaganda is irrational but certainly purposeful to whip declining exceptionals into war frenzy. They are correct in one aspect - China is outpacing the US and will eventually in 10-20 years surpass it as #1 in Economic power (already the case) and Technology .
There are few viable military options for warmongering chickenhawks advising Trump. Certainly, US Naval Intel and PACCOM (now INDOPACCOM) brass who would love a grand Coral Sea 2.0 battle to destroy PLAN vessel on the seas. However, no one, except few Marine 4 stars want any land war. The Marines think they can defeat the PLA on some islands. That kind of warfare is for hollywood movies. China is a missile-based military deploying hypersonics. This means the US Navy has to standoff 1000 km from the Chinese naval forces or missiles from mainland will decimate the carrier task forces within that range.
There won't be any war in SE Asia or East Asia. This area now has a circuit breaker, Russia. Russia is building a naval presence, expanding it's aerospace arm, has basing rights in the zone in Vietnam and has long range radars that cover a lot of the zones, and submarines the US is having issues tracking.
The signals from China and Russia to the US military is very clear. You can walk and talk like the Hegemon but the days of regional hegemony are over. ASEAN nations will not accepting accept a return to gunboat diplomacy and colonization. All these nations want prosperity and progress, not western hegemony and military destruction.
This is why the hybrid war of sanctions, trade war, Infowars, cyberwar, proxies in Central Asia (ISIS and AQ), color revolution attempts in Hong Kong, hysterics about Tibet and Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia (Bannon front) are on the front burner. Military action is a losing proposition for the US. They simply cannot win anything anywhere in the Asia Pacific, western Asia or even against near peer powers proxies like Venezuela.
China simply has to do what Russia does and tell the US to pound sand.nbsp; Fred , 05 August 2020 at 05:05 PM
We do not publish CIA talking points. If you think that don't come here. BTW, "J" is a farmer in Oklahoma who served a long time in USAF.Paco , 05 August 2020 at 05:28 PM
We've been in a war with China for a few dacades now, and losing. Of course having moved much of our manufacturing base into China and then allowing their students to take up most of the hard engingeering class space and lab assistantships while diverting our students to 'studies' programs has been a resounding success.
"There are few viable military options for warmongering chickenhawks advising..."
Bush, Obama, Biden, a Triumverate of peacemakers. Remind me who is ordering troops out of Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria.Yeah, Right , 05 August 2020 at 06:15 PM
The rattling. of sabres between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the U.S.
That line as introduction gives away the article as plain and unsofisticated propaganda. Nobody refers to the USA as the Republican Party, the red scare is a momified bogey..
I don't know if war is inevitable, but the signs are not good. Those "Freedom of Navigation" exercises seem to me to be unnecessarily provocative, not to mention illogical (most traffic in the South China Sea is to/from China). But no less provocative is China's threats to invade Taiwan, which should be outrageous even to those who accept the claim that Taiwan is a rebel province of China.
But I do know that the claims of the (formerly) Hong Kong-based virologist Yan Li-Meng should not be regarded as credible, precisely because they are entirely evidence-free.
She had no first-hand knowledge of events in Wuhan, her claims are speculative, and even that is bolstered by nothing more than the contradictory argument that
(a) nobody took her seriously but nonetheless
(b) if she continued she could have been "disappeared".
As she said herself: "The China government refused to let overseas experts, including ones in Hong Kong, do research in China. So I turned to my friends to get more information."
Leaving aside the interesting reveal that she considers Hong Kong to be "overseas" (it is not), I would point out that there is an excellent word to describe her source of information: scuttlebutt.
She is no more authoritative on this issue as, say, Steve Bannon or Lindsay Graham. Though apparently she is rather more prone to paranoia.
Aug 02, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
Richard Steven Hack , Aug 1 2020 10:22 utc | 88
This is a very good interview of Nassim Nicholas Taleb on the EconTalk Youtube channel. Well worth watching for the hour or so.
A Youtuber posted these notes:
The risk of ruin vs the risk of variation. I first need to survive. There systemic risks to be avoided that then allow me to take other risks elsewhere. Unlike other risks, the collective risk from infectious diseases doesn't scale linearly from individual risk. If I don't pay attention, the risk will be higher for everyone else. If we both wear masks perhaps we're not just reducing the risk of infection by p but by p². If we reduce viral load, perhaps we're reducing infection of others as much as 99%. Pandemics are existential risks. Pandemics have multiplicative risks. Others like dying from drowning in swimming pools are Chernoff bound (non-multiplicative). Rationality does not scale. People doing the right thing may not look rational. Pandemics are the fattest tail of them all. They got to be nipped at the bud. If we don't know if masks work, the more we should wear them. When there's uncertainty in the system it makes decisions much easier. Science is not about evidence. Science is about properties of stuff which may or may not include forecasts. Science is about describing a process. Rigorous science includes computation of asymmetries. Science is not accounting. Science is about understanding phenomena.
One point made was that you should treat all pandemics the same: as soon as they kill, say, one thousand people, take them seriously because you don't know what the ultimate morbidity will be. And that applies to this pandemic - because no one knows where it will stop or how much ancillary damage will be caused to even young victims over their lifespan.
And as for "forecasting", he points out that science is not about forecasting. Even epidemiologists don't understand that. It's about describing phenomena. You can make models, but models and statistics are not that useful when it comes to "fat tail" events.
He describes how historically Europe dealt with the plagues. They used quarantine liberally as part of their normal economic behavior. Ships that came in from suspect ports were refused entry, and ships in general were quarantined as a matter of course. When one ship was allowed to skip quarantine by the Mayor of Marseille - because he owned the ship - half of Marseille died.
Everyone should watch this interview and learn something about dealing with risk, and especially pandemic risk - which as he points out is an even greater risk than nuclear war.
Jul 31, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
Lurk , Jul 30 2020 22:35 utc | 31
@ John Iacovelli | Jul 30 2020 22:03 utc | 25
If this is indeed the "Fort Detrick flu", as many people here (including me) have speculated upon, do you really believe that "western governments might be persuaded to seek and/or spread truthful data."
I would rather expect these governments (and the lackey media) to cover up all traces of the initial outbreak, classify all high level government briefings about the subject and drown any rational and fact-based discourse in a swamp of hysterical projections and divisive diversions.
John Iacovelli , Jul 30 2020 23:28 utc | 37
"persuaded" is more rhetorical than realistic, certainly. But it doesn't hurt to try. In the case of the tobacco industry and cancer, for example, it took decades, but eventually when 90%+ of the general public saw the link, even the industry had to admit it. And governments, corporations and the powerful spend an awful lot of money to keep the truths of many of their horrible actions from the media... yet some of that information seeps through. We must hope and do what we can.
May your "Fort Detrick Flu" be mild!
Jul 25, 2020 | www.counterpunch.org
The anthrax attacks of 2001 were carried out via mail. Anthrax was sent via the US Postal Service to members of Congress and media executives together with notes reading "Death to America," and "Allah is great." Five died. In the weeks following the September 11 attacks, the intent of the perpetrators was to make it appear that the anthrax was being sent by Islamic militants.
The anthrax itself was weaponized. Natural anthrax is found in the soil and rarely causes human disease. The weaponized anthrax spores were designed to easily float in the air and thereby more easily infect its victims. The weaponized anthrax was identified as originating in the U.S. government laboratories. Genetic analysis identified it to be from the Ames strain, isolated from a cow in Texas in 1981, and studied at the United States Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Disease (USAMRIID), Fort Detrick, Maryland. A U.S. government scientist was identified as a suspect, but he committed suicide before being taken into custody. For an analysis of how the anthrax attacks followed the playbook of the June 2001 "Dark Winter" preparedness exercise, see Whitney Webb and Raul Diego's " All Roads Lead To Dark Winter ."
The so-called biodefense complex is inherently dangerous. While the stated intent of biodefense research is to develop the means of countering attacks – in order to do so, scientists often create virulent pathogens in order to determine the means of responding to them. The process by which microorganisms are artificially made more virulent is called "gain-in-function" research.
An example is how the H5N1 strain of influenza was manipulated in order to make it more easily transmissible among humans. One technique is to infect ferrets with successive generations of a virus. Because the ferret respiratory system has similarities to the human respiratory system at the molecular level, such a technique produces viruses that can more easily infect humans. For obvious reasons, the publication of such research was opposed by many in the scientific community.
Wuhan, the original epicenter of the current COVID-19 pandemic, has two microbiology laboratories equipped to handle pathogenic microorganisms. Such labs are designated by their biosafety levels, with BSL-4 being the highest. The Wuhan Centers for Disease Control is a BSL-2 laboratory located within 100s of meters from the Huanan Wholesale Seafood Market, where cases of COVID-19 were initially found. The Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) is the only declared BSL-4 laboratory in China.
The WIV is responsible for much of the coronavirus research in China. Early on in the epidemic, we learned that the virus responsible for COVID-19 is similar to the coronavirus responsible for the 2002-2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS-CoV): therefore its scientific name, SARS-CoV-2 or SARS coronavirus 2. Moreover, we learned that researchers from the WIV had collected a coronavirus from bats in Yunnan Province with 96% homology to (sharing 96% of its genes with) SARS-CoV-2 . Dr. Zhengli-Li Shi, as the head of this research group, takes her place as the last author on the article.
Look at a map of China. Wuhan's central location is what makes it a transportation hub. Yunnan province, to the Southeast, borders Laos and Myanmar. There are a thousand kilometers between Wuhan and the bat caves in Yunnan. The prevailing theory of the origins of the virus is that it made its way into humans through the exotic animal food trade. The encroachment of industrial agriculture into what is left of the wilderness created the conditions for the cross-species jump . It would have a bat virus in Yunnan somehow making the species jump into humans, possibly through an intermediary species, somewhere between Yunnan Province and a city (Wuhan) a thousand miles away.
Isn't it a more plausible scenario that the SARS-CoV-2 was collected in the Yunnan bat caves by researchers from the WIV, brought by them to Wuhan, and somehow leaked from the laboratory? There are a lot of BSL-4 laboratories in the U.S. Leaks happen at these labs.
Note that I am not suggesting that the SARS-CoV-2 was genomically bioengineered, nor that it was created to be a bioweapon. Obviously, the SARS-CoV-2 genome is under close scientific scrutiny, and we assume that molecular biologists would be able to detect such manipulation. However, it is possible to manipulate a viral genome without a recourse to gene-splicing techniques, such as the passing multiple generations through laboratory animals, as noted above with ferrets.
The researchers at the WIV have collaborated with American researchers, however, conducted gain-of-function experiments utilizing gene-splicing techniques. See, for example, a 2015 paper published in Nature , "A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence" authored by researchers mostly from the University of North Carolina (UNC), but also by collaborators from Harvard, Switzerland, and Wuhan. Dr. Zhengli-Li Shi is the second-to-last author.
Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone.
That is to say, these scientists bioengineered a chimera, a Frankenvirus, from the old 2002-2003 SARS virus but with spikes from a different bat coronavirus. The Frankenvirus seems to be a pretty tough customer:
Additionally, in vivo experiments demonstrate replication of the chimeric virus in mouse lung with notable pathogenesis. Evaluation of available SARS-based immune-therapeutic and prophylactic modalities revealed poor efficacy; both monoclonal antibody and vaccine approaches failed to neutralize and protect from infection with CoVs using the novel spike protein. On the basis of these findings, we synthetically re-derived an infectious full-length SHC014 recombinant virus and demonstrate robust viral replication both in vitro and in vivo . Our work suggests a potential risk of SARS-CoV re-emergence from viruses currently circulating in bat populations.
That is, it's hard to kill, it's hard to immunize against, and it reproduces like gangbusters – meaning that if it got loose, it might cause a . . . wait for it . . . a pandemic.
Wait, doctors, didn't you take the money because you said you were going to come up with a biodefense? Again, I am not suggesting that the SARS-CoV-2 was genomically bioengineered – but these scientists are actively creating highly pathogenic organisms, then reporting their work in the scientific literature. Sounds like a Pandora's box to me.
Of note, this article was published during the period (2014-2017) while the National Institutes of Health was not funding gain-of-function research – though exceptions were made for certain institutions (such as UNC, Harvard, and the WIV). As reported by Sam Husseini , this study also received funding from the US Agency for International Development and the EcoHealth Alliance.
Weapons systems, such as nuclear weapons, missiles, or drones, are developed with the intent of gaining a military advantage over one's enemies. Inevitably, though, enemies catch up – and the end result is proliferation. As with other weapons, the downsides, the risks, and the costs of bioweapons research are becoming more obvious. Also obvious is that we must put a stop to it. Join the debate on Facebook More articles by: SEIJI YAMADA
Seiji Yamada , a native of Hiroshima, is a family physician practicing and teaching in Hawaii.
Jul 24, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
William Gruff , Jul 24 2020 18:28 utc | 3Why the "diplomats" cannot be allowed to be tested: They already have antibodies, and that will make the Chinese suspicious.
That's my bet.
beibdnn , Jul 24 2020 18:29 utc | 4Pompeo'sDigital Spartacus , Jul 24 2020 18:37 utc | 5
Whichever is more relevant or childish...Gruff @ 3William Gruff , Jul 24 2020 18:48 utc | 6
I'm sure that all who need to know, do already know about origins, antibodies,etc. I believe it's long past time of suspicions....facts have been found to substantiate suspicions.Digital Spartacus @5
True, but I wouldn't put it past Pompeo and "Bloody" Gina Haspel to think they still have the Chinese fooled.
Jul 01, 2020 | www.unz.com
AriusArmenian , says: June 30, 2020 at 7:43 pm GMTben sampson , says: June 30, 2020 at 8:24 pm GMT
I have to agree with Mike Whitney in this and his previous article.
Add to it all the evidence that Covid-19 had escaped US labs in mid 2019 and the US military took it to Wuhan later in 2019. Correlate it to all the elites meetings in the last two or three years that produced planning documents for a coronavirus pandemic. Correlate it to US intel agencies notifying the EU and Israel about an emerging pandemic before the Chinese knew what they were facing.
Or just keep lying to ourselves to worry about 'chicoms' or communists or Trump or Russia whatever fear narrative the corporate controlled media pushes to keep us from thinking.
Sure Covid-19 is more serious than the regular flu but mostly for elders. Notice how China went all out to protect their elders? That's from their culture that values and protects their elders – in the West elders are mostly just trash. Correlate that the authorities didn't protect elders then uses their death rate in the corporate controlled media to whip up fear (the mind killer).
How will this end? Correlate what the US elite have done since just 911 – the massive suffering, death, and destruction across multiple regions. They have killing many millions, destroyed a swath of cities with their war on the terror they aid and abet, dislocated millions into refugees, engineered false flags outside and inside the US to put the American people into a state of fear of Russia and China to stroke a Cold War v2. Mike Whitney is essentially telling us they have brought home hybrid war to the US itself. It was inevitable. It's what happens to all late stage empires. The strategies used to control the subject peoples comes back to its center to deconstruct, plow, and plunder its own citizens in a last act to grab whatever is left.
The elites will mostly win inside the US. They will strip mine what is left – the US is nearly a dried out husk. But in the long run they will not prevent the continued decline of the US and West. They will not be able to defeat, neutralize, or subdue the coalescing multifarious East. The US is busy eating itself. Except for a nuclear war that ends everything the US Empire is done.@Mike Pierson, Davenport Rector, Midfielder the Covid global scheme, and the Wuhan business does not anger them at all?Yukon Jack , says: Website June 30, 2020 at 8:27 pm GMT
I am yet to see a plausible explanation for China's silence..why has China sat back and taken that attack, say absolutely nothng about it?
was there really an attack on China, is it just a media story. but we saw lockdown in China, masks and everything so there appears to have been Corona-19 in China indeed. so what the hell is going on then! why is China so quiet in the face of what is an attack on its soverign state by foreign agents who are as american power/official state as any elected official representative of the american state
China was attacked..a virus was spread in their country and clearly they did not do it to themselves. so why are they so silent on that issue and its cause?
The coronahoax is a replacement for the global warming hoax. They weren't getting the traction they needed to control us by demonizing the life gas CO2. But now they got us by the balls with the invisible Covid
So now they got us in lock down and the sheeple wearing masks, do you think they will relent, ever?
Our greatest enemy now are all the compliant virtue signalling sheep wearing the coronamask.
Jun 30, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
dh-mtl , Jun 28 2020 20:30 utc | 62
Interesting about Covid-19.
- Virus found in sewage in Italy in mid-December.
- Past articles showed virus had been found in x-rays in France in mid-November. Other articles suggest virus in Belgium in mid-November as well.
- Past articles suggested U.S. Defense Intelligence warning allies about virus in Wuhan in mid-November.
So a question? How did the virus manage to jump from Wuhan to Europe, in a completely mutated form, two months before Wuhan was locked down, and yet not spread to the rest of China first?
My answer. It doesn't make sense. What does make sense is that there were stocks of the virus, in different locations, waiting for the signal to be released.
Jun 30, 2020 | www.msn.com
World's dominant strain of coronavirus 'is 10 TIMES more infectious than the one that jumped to humans in China' because it mutated so its vital spike protein doesn't snap as often in the body, scientists say Sam Blanchard Senior Health Reporter For Mailonline 7 hrs ago
TV shows that are canceled or ending in 2020 Chase Rice responds to controversial concert World's dominant strain of coronavirus 'is 10 TIMES more infectious than the one that jumped to humans in China' because it mutated so its vital spike protein doesn't snap as often in the body, scientists say
- a close up of a decorated cake: The spikes on the outside of the coronavirus (illustrated in red) are what it uses to latch onto cells on the inside of a victim's airways. A mutated version of the virus appears to have developed stronger spikes so it is more likely to infect someone if they breathe it in, scientists say Next Slide Full screen 1/5 SLIDES © Provided by Daily Mail
The spikes on the outside of the coronavirus (illustrated in red) are what it uses to latch onto cells on the inside of a victim's airways. A mutated version of the virus appears to have developed stronger spikes so it is more likely to infect someone if they breathe it in, scientists sayA mutated version of the coronavirus that has gripped Europe and the West is more infectious because it doesn't break as often while inside the body, a study has found.
Researchers at The Scripps Research Institute in Florida say the 'spike protein' that the virus uses to attach to cells in the airways has adapted since January.
It used to break off regularly while trying to bind to receptors in people's airways, which it would use to gain entry to the body, but is now more resilient, they say.
A genetic mutation which scientists around the world have been picking up on for months appears to have caused this spike to be less likely to snap, and also to force the coronaviruses to produce more of them to make itself more infectious.
As a result the virus appears to be approximately 10 times more infectious than it was when it first jumped to humans in China at the end of the year, scientists say.
The mutated version of the virus, dubbed G614 - a change from D614 - is a tiny change in its genetic make-up that scientists weren't sure what to make of when they found it.
But by May research had found it had become the dominant strain being found in Covid-19 patients across the UK, US, Canada and Italy.
Lead researcher on the Scripps institute's study, Dr Hyeryun Choe, told the Washington Post the mutation seemed to have happened to 'compensate' for the weakness of the spike protein in the past.
The Post reported it appeared to have become approximately 10 times more infectious as a result of this change.
The way the virus enters the body is by using its spike to latch onto a receptor - called an ACE-2 receptor - inside someone's airways.
ACE-2 receptors are essentially tiny gateways that the virus uses to get into the blood and then multiply rapidly, destroying cells around them in the process and triggering illness.
Dr Choe and her colleagues examined the differences between the spike proteins, dubbed S, on the outside of both versions of the coronavirus.
They found: 'These results show SG614 is more stable than SD614, consistent with epidemiological data suggesting that viruses with SG614 transmit more efficiently.'
The spike was stronger, they said, and as a result the virus was better able to bash through the gateway of the ACE-2 receptors.
Dr Choe told the Washington Post: 'The epidemiological study and our data together really explain why the [G variant's] spread in Europe and the US was really fast... This is not just accidental.'
However, this improved spike strength did not seem to be making people any sicker - or any less sick.
This, they suggested, could be because the spike had nothing to do with the virus's ability to reproduce - to replicate - once it was inside the body.HOW AND WHY CAN VIRUSES CHANGE OVER TIME?
Viruses are known to change over time because they are subject to random genetic mutations in the same way that all living things are.
These mutations can have various effects and many will only happen briefly and not become a permanent change as newer generations of viruses replace the mutated ones.
However, some of the mutations might turn out to be advantageous to the virus, and get carried forward into future generations.
A virus may change its structure by accident but turn out to be more infectious that way, meaning it can infect more hosts, reproduce more, and become more dominant than its less fertile predecessor.
Or if a virus becomes less dangerous to its host - that is, it causes fewer symptoms or less death - it may find that it is able to live longer and reproduce more.
As a result, more of these less dangerous viruses are produced and they may go on to spread more effectively than the more dangerous versions, which could be stamped out by medication because more people realise they are ill, for example.
The mutation may then be taken forward in the stronger generations and become the dominant version of the virus.
In an explanation of an scientific study about HIV, the NHS said in 2014: 'The optimal evolutionary strategy for a virus is to be infectious (so it creates more copies of itself) but non-lethal (so its host population doesn't die out).
'The "poster boy" for successful long-living viruses is, arguably, the family of viruses that cause the, which has existed for thousands of years.'
The process of reproduction, and using the body's resources to achieve this, is how the coronavirus causes illness.
Dr Choe's study added: 'An interesting question is why viruses carrying the more stable SG614 appear to be more transmissible without resulting in a major observable difference in disease severity.
'It is possible that higher levels of functional S protein observed with SG614 increase the chance of host-to-host transmission, but that other factors limit the rate and efficiency of intra-host replication.'
The paper was published online on bioRxiv without being reviewed by independent scientists.
Researchers in the UK and US had in May noted that the G614 version of the virus had become 'the dominant pandemic form in many countries'.
They said it was first found in Germany in February and had since become the most common form of the virus in patients worldwide - it appears to force out the older version whenever they clash.
Viruses mutate naturally all the time and it is not usually cause for alarm but should be studied in case they change so much they become unrecognisable to the body and immunity from a first infection cannot protect against them, as is the case with flu.
A study done by scientists at the University of Sheffield and Los Alamos National Laboratory, New Mexico, found that D614 appeared to have been the virus's original state in humans, and the one found in Wuhan.
It made up the vast majority of all Covid-19 infections in China, and Asia as a whole, and also seemed to be the first version of the virus to appear in the countries they studied.
However, the mutated version - G614 - started to appear soon after in Europe and North America in particular, before going on to take over as the dominant virus.
'A clear and consistent pattern was observed in almost every place where adequate sampling was available,' the researchers said.
'In most countries and states where the COVID-19 epidemic was initiated and where sequences were sampled prior to March 1, the D614 form was the dominant local form early in the epidemic.
'Wherever G614 entered a population, a rapid rise in its frequency followed, and in many cases G614 became the dominant local form in a matter of only a few weeks.'
They said the G614 mutation may give the virus a 'selective advantage' which makes it better able to bind to cells in the airways, or to shed viruses which it uses to reproduce and spread.
It could do this because the D614G mutation appeared to affect the shape of the 'spike' protein that the virus uses to attach to a person's cells and infect them.
A sample of 447 hospital patients in Sheffield showed that people had a higher viral load when infected with G614, meaning they had a higher quantity of viruses circulating in their body.
This could make them more likely to spread COVID-19 because they could be more likely to show symptoms and have more viruses on their breath, for example.
The researchers wrote: 'An early April sampling... showed that G614's frequency was increasing at an alarming pace throughout March, and it was clearly showing an ever-broadening geographic spread.'
And they added: 'Through March, G614 became increasingly common throughout Europe, and by April it dominated contemporary sampling.
'In North America, infections were initiated and established across the continent by the original D614 form, but in early March, the G614 was introduced into both Canada and the USA, and by the end of March it had become the dominant form in both nations.'WHAT IS AN ACE-2 RECEPTOR AND WHAT DOES IT HAVE TO DO WITH COVID-19?
ACE-2 receptors are structures found on the surface of cells in the lungs and airways which work with an enyzme called ACE (angiotensin-converting enzyme) to regulate blood pressure.
Its exact function in the lungs is not well understood but studies suggest it is protective against lung damage and low levels of it can worsen the impact of viral infections.
Scientists say that the coronavirus which causes COVID-19 enters the body through the ACE-2 receptor, which the shape of it allows it to latch on to.
This means that someone with more ACE-2 receptors may be more susceptible to a large viral load - first infectious dose of a virus - entering their bloodstream.
People who have higher than usual numbers of ACE-2 receptors may include those with diabetes or high blood pressure because they have genetic defects which make them produce more.
High levels of ACE-2 receptors may also be protective, however.
They are thought to be able to protect the lungs during infection and a study on mice in 2008 found that mice which had ACE-2 blocked in their bodies suffered more damage when they were infected with SARS, which is almost identical to COVID-19.
Smoking has in the past been repeatedly linked to lower than normal levels of ACE-2 receptors, potentially increasing the risk of lung damage from COVID-19.
Jun 12, 2020 | turcopolier.typepad.com
GENETICS. Putin has told the government to ensure creation of Russian-made laboratory and scientific equipment for research in genetics . Remember the report that the USAF was collecting genetic material of Russians ? I think COVID has made Moscow and Beijing rather thoughtful. Teheran too.
Jun 04, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
Caliman , Jun 3 2020 22:07 utc | 50@ Kris @ #20
The Spanish Flu, while killing an estimated 60 million world wide was not a big killer on a % basis compared to many diseases. The Plague and smallpox, for example, would routinely kill 20% to 40% of an affected population.
Flus and this current Covid19 are very low mortality, in comparison. The point is not that Covid's deaths are not tragic; the point is that humans and civilization has survived MUCH worse!
Jun 02, 2020 | www.nytimes.com
None of the bat viruses are close enough to the novel coronavirus to suggest that it jumped from bats to humans. The immediate progenitor of the new virus has not been found, and may have been present in bats or another animal. Pangolins were initially suspected, although more recent analysis of pangolin coronaviruses suggests that although they probably have played a part in the new virus's evolution, there is no evidence that they were the immediate source.
...They found evidence that the novel coronavirus may have evolved in Yunnan Province, but could not rule out an origin elsewhere in Southeast Asia outside China.
...Dr. Daszak said that the region where China, Laos, Vietnam and Myanmar converge may be "the real hot spot for these viruses."
He said the region was characterized not only by bat and coronavirus diversity, but by urbanization, population growth and intense poultry and livestock farming, all of which could lead to viruses jumping from one species to another, and to the spread of human disease.
May 28, 2020 | www.military.com
24 Nov 2019 The Frederick News-Post, Md. | By Heather Mongilio
The Army's premier biological laboratory on Fort Detrick reported two breaches of containment earlier this year, leading to the Centers for Disease and Control halting its high-level research.
The U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases announced Friday that it would restart its operations on a limited scale.3M Lawsuit Firm If you are a military member and have experienced hearing loss or tinnitus after using 3M earplugs contact (877) 271-1969.
As it works to regain full operational status, more details about the events leading to the shutdown are emerging.
An inspection findings report, obtained by the News-Post through a Freedom of Information Act request, details some of the observations found during CDC inspections as well as by USAMRIID employees who reported the issues.
The two breaches reported by USAMRIID to the CDC demonstrated a failure of the Army laboratory to "implement and maintain containment procedures sufficient to contain select agents or toxins" that were made by operations in biosafety level 3 and 4 laboratories, according to the report. Biosafety level 3 and 4 are the highest levels of containment, requiring special protective equipment, air flow and standard operating procedures.
Due to redactions to protect against notification of the release of an agent under the Federal Select Agent Program, it is unclear the result of the two breaches.
Breach is a "loaded word," said Col. E. Darrin Cox, commander of USAMRIID. While there was a breach, there was no exposure, he said. No one was exposed to any of the agents or toxins.
Anytime USAMRIID determines there is a breakdown of requirements, employees have to do a report, Cox said.
When the breaches were reported, USAMRIID's commander at the time issued a cease and desist to all work being done at the laboratory so that personnel could do a safety pause. It was a voluntary stop, Cox, who was not commander then, said.
The CDC inspected USAMRIID in June, as part of standard regulations that include scheduled and unscheduled visits, according to previous News-Post reporting. The CDC sent a letter of concern on July 12, followed by a cease and desist letter July 15.
Shortly after, USAMRIID's registration with the Federal Select Agent Program, which regulates select agents and toxins, such as Ebola or the bacteria causing the plague, was suspended. At the time, USAMRIID was conducting work with Ebola and the agents known to cause Tularemia, the plague and Venezuelan equine encephalitis.
What Went Wrong
The CDC, in its inspection findings, noted six departures from the federal regulations for handling select agents and toxins. One of those departures was the two breaches.
Another departure was that the military laboratory systematically failed to implement biosafety and containment procedures. In one instance, personnel deliberately propped open the door to the autoclave room while the employee removed biohazard waste.
"This deviation increases the risk of contaminated air from room [redacted] escaping and being drawn into the autoclave room, where individuals do not wear respiratory protection," according to the report.
The report includes a large section redacted to protect against the release of a report or inspection of a specific registered person that would endanger public health or safety.
Propping the door open was an "incident," Cox said, not one of the breaches. It was noted by the CDC during one of its inspections.
The person who propped the door open did not have mal intent, he said.
"They weren't doing it to openly flout the rules," Cox said. "They were doing it for a reason that they thought was reasonable. But I mean, it still was not in compliance with [standard operating procedures]."
There were other incidents like the door propping that led the CDC to determine there was the systematic failure, he said.
To fix it, the CDC required that USAMRIID ensure personnel were being trained. While under the cease and desist, USAMRIID reviewed its training, validated it to make sure it was working, trained its staff and validated their training, Cox said. It will continue to monitor to make sure the training continues.
One of the concerns was USAMRIID's effluent waste decontamination system. The laboratory had moved to chemical treatment after its previous system was damaged, according to previous News-Post reporting.
It will be going back to a thermal decontamination system, Cox said.
The inspection findings also found that USAMRIID did not have a complete, accurate inventory of its select agents. That has been resolved, Cox said.
There were also cracks in the paint that were fixed, he said.
The CDC inspection also had multiple general concerns that were being addressed. All personnel concerns about not following protocol have been addressed, he said.
"Everything in [the CDC's] letter has been addressed," Cox said.
The Federal Select Agent Program registration has been partially lifted, and USAMRIID will be able to work on five studies dealing with select agents and regain its full operational status in the Laboratory Response Network.
The Laboratory Response Network is made up of three laboratories -- one operated by the Navy, USAMRIID and the CDC. The three are responsible for determining unknown material.
While operations were shut down at USAMRIID, the Army laboratory still did some work. But if it identified something that fell under the Federal Select Agent Program, it either stored the material in the freezer, as it was with the rest of the biological select agents or toxins it has, or sent it to one of the other laboratories, Cox said.
The Laboratory Response Network is set up in such a way that if one of the laboratories cannot operate, as USAMRIID could not, the other two can shoulder the work, said USAMRIID spokeswoman Caree Vander Linden. That happened with the CDC during the height of the 2016 Ebola outbreak, which meant USAMRIID took on more work.
While under the partial suspension, the CDC will approve the studies USAMRIID scientists wish to do, Cox said. USAMRIID leadership will have to send an outline of proposed research, including what agent it will involve, among other details. CDC personnel will then review the plan and interview the scientists to make sure they are trained and can do the research, he said.
There is no concern about intellectual property under the CDC approval model, he said. And he did not think it would affect grants. During the shut down, USAMRIID scientists were able to continue writing grants, among other duties, like consulting or education, he said.
During the shutdown, personnel understood the importance of taking a pause and evaluating the standard operating procedures. There was no major staff turnover as a result of the shutdown.
"They understand the importance of the mission," Cox said.
But the scientists will be happy to get back into the laboratory, he said.
... ... ...
This article is written by Heather Mongilio from The Frederick News-Post, Md.
May 26, 2020 | www.zerohedge.com
Eleven years before the joint construction of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, French intelligence services warned Paris that China's reputation for poor bio-security could lead to a 'catastrophic leak,' according to the Daily Mail .
In 2004, the EU's chief brexit negotiator, Michael Barnier, ignored those warnings - signing off on the lab's construction when he was the French foreign minister.
According to the report, French intel also warned that Paris could lose control of the facility, and that Beijing could even use it to make biowarfare weapons. And in 2015, as the laboratory prepared to open, those concerns were realized after the French architects of the project said the CCP had shut them out. In fact, 50 French scientists were supposed to help the Chinese run the laboratory properly, but never ended up going.
The Mail discovered Barnier's involvement in the Wuhan Institute of Virology during an in-depth investigation into French connections to the lab - where many believe the coronavirus escaped from , as the WIV housed a group of scientists who received international condemnatio n for creating chimeric strains that could infect humans. Under the 'escaped' scenario, an infected WIV employee unknowingly brought it into the Wuhan wet market, exposing what would become roughly half of the first known cluster of cases.
Biologists who carried out a landmark study say they were 'surprised' to find the virus was 'already pre-adapted to human transmission' .
Jacques Chirac, the French president at the time of the deal, pushed for the Wuhan institute to be set up after the 2003 SARS outbreak, which affected 26 countries and resulted in more than 8,000 cases and 774 deaths . Mr Chirac, along with his pro-Beijing prime minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, promised French funding and expertise in return for a share of the intellectual copyright on the lab's discoveries. - Daily Mail
France's Chirac government saw the deal to construct the WIV as a way to strengthen trade with China, despite warnings from its own intelligence, the French equivalent to MI6 , which repeatedly raised concerns over lack of international control and 'transparency' issues.
"What you have to understand is that a P4 [high-level bio-security] laboratory is like a nuclear reprocessing plant. It's a bacteriological atomic bomb," said one source, adding: "The viruses that are tested are extremely dangerous – diving suits, decontamination airlocks etc must be followed to the letter."
Alain Merieux, the French billionaire who was instrumental in setting up the Wuhan laboratory in partnership with his Institut Merieux in Lyons, abandoned the project in 2015, saying: 'I am giving up the co-chairmanship of [the] P4 [laboratory], a Chinese tool. It belongs to them, even if it was developed with technical assistance from France .'
According to Le Figaro, a diplomat with a close knowledge of the deal added: 'We knew the risks involved and thought that the Chinese would control everything and quickly eject us from the project.
' We believed that providing this cutting-edge technology to a country with an endless power agenda would risk exposing France in return .' - Daily Mail
And in 2015, concerns were validated after China implemented their new policy of 'dual use' technologies, which allows for the military use of civilian technology.
"The aim was to develop vaccines following the SARS crisis between 2002 and 2004," said the Mail 's source. "There was much co-operation on a range of issues between France and China at the time, and Michel Barnier was implementing government policy."
"The issue of bio-security was certainly a cause for concern within agencies including the DGSE," the source added.
Meanwhile, the WIV's Shi Zhengli - known as "bat woman" for her controversial experiments creating bat coronaviruses that can infect humans - and who swore 'on her life' that the COVID-19 isn't from her lab, said in a recent interview on Chinese state television that viruses being discovered now are "just the tip of the iceberg. "
"If we want to prevent human beings from suffering from the next infectious disease outbreak, we must go in advance to learn of these unknown viruses carried by wild animals in nature and give early warnings," Shi told CGTN, adding " If we don't study them there will possibly be another outbreak. "
Will be, or won't be another outbreak?
May 26, 2020 | scotthorton.org
5/22/20 Brett Wilkins on America's Secret Bioweapons Programs
by Scott | May 23, 2020 | Interviews Scott talks to Brett Wilkins about Project SHAD, a Cold War era bioweapons test program that exposed thousands of American sailors to chemical and biological weapons. These veterans have been seeking redress for a slew of ailments allegedly caused by exposure to these weapons, but the government continues to evade culpability. Sadly, SHAD is only one of many incidents where the U.S. government deliberately tested dangerous substances on its soldiers, and even on its civilians. On top of such programs, the American military has left behind a wake of chronic health problems and generations of birth defects in places like Vietnam, Iraq, and Pakistan because of the toxic chemicals and heavy metals used to wage its wars.
Discussed on the show:
- "Veterans Exposed in Cold War Bioweapons Testing Still Awaiting Answers -- and Help" ( CounterPunch.org )
- Project 112/Project SHAD
- Unit 731
- "Wormwood (TV Mini-Series 2017)" ( IMDb )
- War is a Racket
Brett Wilkins is the editor-at-large for US news at the Digital Journal and a contributor at The Daily Kos. Follow him on Twitter @MoralLowGround .
This episode of the Scott Horton Show is sponsored by: NoDev NoOps NoIT , by Hussein Badakhchani; The War State , by Mike Swanson; WallStreetWindow.com ; Tom Woods' Liberty Classroom ; ExpandDesigns.com/Scott ; Listen and Think Audio ; TheBumperSticker.com ; and LibertyStickers.com .
Donate to the show through Patreon , PayPal , or Bitcoin: 1Ct2FmcGrAGX56RnDtN9HncYghXfvF2GAh.
May 25, 2020 | www.zerohedge.com
"Like It Was Designed To Infect Humans": COVID-19 'Cell Culture' Theory Gains Steam by Tyler Durden Mon, 05/25/2020 - 12:30 Twitter Facebook Reddit Email Print
A scientific study which found COVID-19 may have been a "cell-culture" uniquely adapted for transmission to humans (more so than any other animal - including bats), is gaining steam.
The paper, currently under peer review, comes from Flinders University Professor Nikolai Petrovsky, who has spent over two decades developing vaccines against influenza, Ebola, and animal Sars. He says his findings allow for the possibility that COVID-19 leaked from a laboratory , according to Sky News .
"The two possibilities which I think are both still open is that it was a chance transmission of a virus from an as yet unidentified animal to human. The other possibility is that it was an accidental release of the virus from a laboratory," said Petrovsky, adding "Certainly we can't exclude the possibility that this came from a laboratory experiment rather than from an animal. They are both open possibilities."
Professor Petrovsky, who is the Chairman and Research Director of Vaxine Pty Ltd, said COVID-19 has genetic elements similar to bat coronaviruses as well as other coronaviruses.
The way coronavirus enters human cells is by binding to a protein on the surface of lung-cells called ACE2. The study showed the virus bound more tightly to human-ACE2 than to any of the other animals they tested .
" It was like it was designed to infect humans ," he said.
"One of the possibilities is that an animal host was infected by two coronaviruses at the same time and COVID-19 is the progeny of that interaction between the two viruses. - Sky News
"The same process can happen in a petri-dish," added Petrovsky. "If you have cells in culture and you have human cells in that culture which the viruses are infecting, then if there are two viruses in that dish, they can swap genetic information and you can accidentally or deliberately create a whole third new virus out of that system ."
"In other words COVID-19 could have been created from that recombination event in an animal host or it could have occurred in a cell-culture experiment ."
In January, Petrovsky began modeling the virus to try and create a vaccine candidate. According to the report, he then began to explore "what animal species might have been involved in the transmission to humans" in order to better understand the origins of the virus, when he discovered how well it infects humans over other species.
" We found that the COVID-19 virus was particularly well-adapted to bind to human cells and that was far superior to its ability to bind to the cells of any other animal species which is quite unusual because typically when a virus is well-adapted to an animal and then it by chance crosses to a human, typically, you would expect it to have lower-binding to human cells than to the original host animal. We found the opposite so that was a big surprise," he said.
When asked why mainstream scientists are still clinging to the theory that the virus originated in a Wuhan wet market , he said that scientists "try not to be political" but that that scientists who support the lab escape theory risk negatively impacting their industry with tighter laboratory controls.
"For instance, if it was to turn out that this virus may have come about because of an accidental lab release that would have implications for how we do viral research in laboratories all around the world which could make doing research much harder," he said, adding "So I think the inclination of virus researchers would be to presume that it came from an animal until proven otherwise because that would have less ramifications for how we are able to do research in the future. The alternative obviously has quite major implications for science and science on viruses , not just obviously political ramifications which we're all well aware of."
Petrovsky has called for immediate investigation now, and not when the pandemic is over - calling any delay in fact finding a "mistake."
"I'm certainly very much in favour of a scientific investigation. It's only objective should be to get to the bottom of how did this pandemic happen and how do we prevent a future pandemic . not to have a witch-hunt."
Mar 13, 2020 | www.nytimes.com
China is pushing a new theory about the origins of the coronavirus : It is an American disease that might have been introduced by members of the United States Army who visited Wuhan in October.
There is not a shred of evidence to support that, but the notion received an official endorsement from China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, whose spokesman accused American officials of not coming clean about what they know about the disease .
... ... ...
"When did patient zero begin in US?" Mr. Zhao wrote on Twitter, first in English and separately in Chinese. "How many people are infected. What are the names of the hospitals? It might be US army who brought the epidemic to Wuhan. Be transparent! Make public your date! US owe us an explanation."
Mr. Zhao appeared to refer to the Military World Games , which were held in Wuhan in October. The Pentagon sent 17 teams with more than 280 athletes and other staff members to the event, well before any reported outbreaks. The Pentagon has had confirmed cases in South Korea and Italy and is bracing for more to emerge, but no illnesses have been tied to American service members from October.
Mr. Zhao's remarks were spread on China's most prominent social media platform, Weibo, under a hashtag: #ZhaoLijianPostedFiveTweetsinaRowQuestioningAmerica. By late afternoon on Friday, that hashtag had been viewed more than 160 million times, along with screenshots of the original Twitter posts.
The State Department summoned the Chinese ambassador on Friday to protest Mr. Zhao's comments, officials in the Trump administration said.
At the regular briefing at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on Friday, another spokesman, Geng Shuang, sidestepped three questions about whether Mr. Zhao's suggestion had politicized the crisis and reflected official Chinese policy.
He instead noted the statements made by American officials and lawmakers to "smear and attack" China.
"We are firmly opposed to this," he said. "In fact, the international community, including the United States at home, have different views on the source of the virus. What I have been saying in recent days is that the Chinese side always believed that this is a scientific issue and requires scientific and professional opinions."
May 21, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
BM , May 20 2020 16:35 utc | 156Interesting to see how the official fear propaganda on Covid has changed away from "it's so infectious and deadly, it will be like the Spanish Flu, probably worse". Most countries have no excess mortality at all (Germany - so far on a 3-year low, most of Europe), some a bit such as the UK where this flu is on par with the 5 strongest flus of the last 25 years, i.e. a 5-year event. Spiegelhalter in the BMJ (the heart of the UK medical establishment) just said two thirds of Covid-attributed deaths in the UK are in fact caused by the lockdown.
Posted by: Leser | May 20 2020 7:42 utc | 148
Indeed. But don't forget the first phase before the panic porn phase ! As China Started to suffer under the rapidly growing problem in early January and took decisive steps to bring it under control, the West, led by the US and UK psychopaths, were busy accusing China of "abusing human rights" with their "excessive" lockdowns, laughing off the seriousness of the disease, and making very little attempt to hide their glee at the predicament China faced.
Very important that people do not forget that first phase, as it is highly incriminating of Western governments - both with respect to their actions concerning Covid/China and with respect to their actions towards their own populations; even more so now as it becomes clear that they are forced to change their tactics again.
With respect to this, I found something very interesting and revealing in two papers, both of which were published earlier.
Phylogenetic network analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes (Forster et al)
In silico comparison of spike protein-ACE2 binding affinities across species;
significance for the possible origin of the SARS-CoV-2 virus (Piplani et al)
The Piplani paper measured the bonding energy of SARS-CoV-2 spike protein to ACE2 receptors in different kinds of animals, showing that in some (such as horse) the bond is rather weak, causing low infectivity and no overt disease. In the hamster or monkey the binding energy was considerably higher, reflecting much higher infectivity. What was striking, though, is that the binding energies to human ACE2 cells were the highest of all, while binding energy to bat ACE2 was considerably lower.
What this means is that SARS-CoV-2 (the virus causing Covid-19) is highly adapted to humans. This is despite the fact that the Piplani research was based on the earliest virus genomes from the beginning of the infection in Wuhan, i.e. supposedly before it had any chance to adapt to humans. Furthermore it supposedly came from bats, yet there is absolutely no sign of its presence in bats, no sign of a Covid-19 epidemic in bats, no sign that it was gradually evolving into SARS-CoV-2 in bats, and furthermore the binding energy to bat ACE2 cells is far too low. This is highly suggestive that the virus was developed in the laboratory.
Now consider the Forster paper, which discusses the evolution of the virus from the earliest samples found in Wuhan, and the mutations that spread around to different parts of the world in the early stage of the pandemic (it does not take into account the huge number of mutations that have occurred since then, nor of course the earliest versions recently shown to have been present in the US and Europe in November 2019 or earlier). It is based only on the 160 largely completely sequenced SARS-CoV-2 genomes in the GISAID database in early March 2020.
Forster described the early varieties of SARS-CoV-2 as falling in 3 main groups, A, B and C, with A being the "ancestral" group which was closest to the nearest known virus that has been found in bats, BatCoVRaTG13. The "ancestral" group A is also divided into 2 subclusters, the T-allele (closest to RaTG13) and the C-allele (not C group!!) which differs only by the T29095C mutation. Nearly half of this C-allele subcluster is found outside East Asia, mainly in the USA and Australia (this is before early March, remember; after that it would be far more complicated).
Then there are two groups derived derived from group A (specifically, from the C-allele of A). The first, group B, is derived directly from A. The second, group C, is derived in turn from Group B. Now here is where it gets interesting - and remember this is only genomes already sequenced by early March, so only cases in February or earlier.
Group B is derived from A by two mutations, one synonymous and one non-synonymous. All but 19 of the 93 B group samples came from East Asia, mainly China 10 cases in neighbouring countries of East Asia. Every single sample of the earliest form of B-group (i.e. with just 2 mutations from A-group) was found in East Asians , while every single sample of B-group found outside East Asia had additional mutations . Thus there is a very strong implication that B group (and presumably also A group, but that issue is not discussed by Forster since it is virtually monopolised in East Asia anyway) is genetically adapted specifically to East Asian ethnic group . Where B group has been found outside East Asia, it seems to have required further mutations to adapt it (still at this point being classed as B group) to non-East Asian ethnic groups. Forster et al state:A complex founder scenario is one possibility, and a different explanation worth considering is that the ancestral Wuhan B-type virus is immunologically or environmentally adapted to a large section of the East Asian population, and may need to mutate to overcome resistance outside East Asia.
Group C is further derived from group B, and differs by a non-synonymous mutation G26144T. In the dataset it is predominantly in Europe, with samples in France, Italy, Sweden, England, California and Brazil. It is completely absent (in this database) from China, but 5 samples are found in Singapore, and some also in Hong Kong, Taiwan and South Korea (notably, all of which are much more internationalised than China).
Now, there is a further twist, with reference to the following paper:
Geographic and Genomic Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 mutations
This involved a study of 10014 different SARS-CoV-2 genomes that had been sequenced by 20th April 2020, and analysed the differences by continent, by country, and by group. By the time of this paper the knowledge of the virus had progressed, and the grouping is different: here the 10014 genomes are classified into three clades, according to the main gene involved in the branching, and are referred to as clades S, G and V. S corresponds roughly to Forster's Group B, and G to Forster's Group C. Clade S seems to include group A. I assume V is another group that developed subsequently to Forster's paper, and I assume probably derived from clade G since it is found predominately in Europe.
Thus clade S is the ancestral group A/B that predominates in East Asia especially China. What differentiates clade G from clade S is the gene encoding the spike protein, which binds to the ACE2 receptor. In other words this is an adaptation to bind to Caucasian ACE2 receptors more effectively.
Furthermore, taking the earliest published genome (from Wuhan) as reference, the least divergence from this reference was found in the East Asian countries China, Hong Kong, Singapore and Japan, plus Iran [Iran, though, according to another source, was a distinctly different genome, evidently optimised for Iran] in other countries the divergence from this reference is much greater, apparently evidencing an evolution to adapt to different ACE2 receptors. Furthermore again, the paper notes that all the different countries of Europe had exactly the same profile of expression of the different genes, whereas the different countries of East Asia showed marked differentiation between each other, especially Japan.
In other words the original form of the virus released in Wuhan was specifically adapted to ethnic Chinese ACE2 receptors. This strain of the virus seems to have had some difficuty infecting Europeans, and when it did infect Europeans the infection was mild. Could this be the explanation for the extreme overconfidence of the West from January to mid-March? They expected that Caucasians would be less affected by the virus than the Chinese, unprepared for such rapid adaptation through mutation.
Here is my hypothesis : The US created this virus specifically to attack China. The genetic code of the spike protein was specifically designed to be optimised to attach to the Chinese ACE2 receptor. The form created by the USA would be the T-allele of Group A (the earliest known strain). Being artificial, it was genetically unstable, and quickly mutated after the start of the outbreak in Wuhan, first to the C-allele of Group A, then through two more mutations to the B Group, which was more stable for infections in ethnic Chinese - meaning, the virus is well adapted to attaching to Chinese ACE2 adaptors, therefore it does not need further selection to thrive in this ethnic group. This B group spread within East Asia, but could only thrive outside East Asia by further mutations - meaning that amongst millions of replications of the virus in non-Chinese hosts, those mutations that were better adapted to the non-Chinese ACE2 receptor would thrive better through natural selection. When B Group samples reached Europe, they quickly adapted to the new hosts through natural selection to attach better to the Caucasian form of the ACE2 receptor, giving rise to the new Group C (later classified as G clade). Thus, suddenly the virus became - contrary to US plans and expectations - well adapted to infecting Caucasian hosts. Thus, the strange delayed shock realisation that we have observed in Western politicians, especially British and American.
There are a couple of interesting predictions from this hypothesis, which can be tested if the relevant data eventually becomes available (I think it is bound to come out eventually). Firstly, my hypothesis is that the original strain leaked from Fort Detrick would have been the A Group (T-allele), which is not so well adapted to infecting Caucasians. This might be why it was relatively well contained before February. The US government, of course, would know this. After it escaped into the US community, though, it must have mutated. These random mutations would have been different from those which occurred in Wuhan, thus these mutations would all be different branches from A than those observed by Forster. If some of these early strains could be sequenced, they should be in this alternate branch - still derived from the ancestral Group A, but with quite separate development, as a distinct branch. This branch would have tried to adapt to Caucasian ACE2 receptors, but may have been more or less successful than Group C, and may have been both more or less infectious, and more or less fatal, than Group C. These mutations should be different from those found in China. There are many ethnic Chinese in the US military - did the US avoid including these ethnic Chinese in the Wuhan military games? What were the ethnicities of the 6 participants urgently evacuated from Wuhan during the games?
The second prediction concerns the early virus strains found in Europe in November or earlier. What type of strains were they? If they reulted from infections from the US team in Wuhan in October, they again must have mutated after reaching Europe, and they may have been yet another branch from Group A, with mutations different from both the US branches and the Forster branches. Alternatively, perhaps this was the origin of the C group - nevertheless this is less likely since C group is derived from B group, which according to this hypothesis should not have existed in Wuhan until after it spread amongst the Chinese. A third possibility is that the early European strains also came from the US leak, and started spreading - like the early US forms rather slowly - before the Wuhan games took place. In this case the early European branches should be derived from somewhere on the early US phylogenetic tree.
Jackrabbit , May 20 2020 17:29 utc | 157BM | May 20 2020 16:35 @ 156BM , May 20 2020 17:46 utc | 158
Thanks for taking the time to describe the research and share your thoughts about it.
My impression is that it's already recognized that the virus didn't come from bats. There's been talk of other animals instead: cats, civets, etc. Perhaps it's the research that you describe that has driven researchers to look elsewhere?
And I wonder how conclusive the East Asian ACE2 attachment is. Wouldn't the virus be expected to be adapted to the population where it first appeared?
One interesting aspect of the research that you highlight is that the Wuhan lab's bat research is irrelevant. AFAICT accusations against the lab have focused on its bat research.
!!And I wonder how conclusive the East Asian ACE2 attachment is. Wouldn't the virus be expected to be adapted to the population where it first appeared?Jackrabbit , May 20 2020 17:47 utc | 159
Posted by: Jackrabbit | May 20 2020 17:29 utc | 157
Indeed, it would be expected to adapt to the population where it first appeared - so why did it suddenly appear there out of nowhere, with that adaptation already complete? That is impossible, if it evolved naturally. Only if it was created in a lab is it possible.
As for "other animals" ... if it developed in another animal, where is the evidence of an epidemic in that animal? Where is the evidence of the long and necessary process of evolution in that animal. In both cases entirely absent.BM | May 20 2020 16:35 @ 156
I agree that the US/West delay in addressing the looming pandemic is suspicious. As is their strange attacks against China right after signing an initial trade agreement. But I'm not sure exactly what to make of it.
I also think there are other suspicious things that don't get much attention:
- ARAMACO's well-timed IPO;
- Trump's decision to sign a "Phase I" Trade Agreement with China (he had previously said that he would only sign a comprehensive deal)" - China is now having trouble meeting the terms of this agreement;
- Designating all Administration discussions about the virus as a national security matter;
- John Bolton's strange departure: resigned or fired? for no apparent reason;
- Ft Detrick and vaping illness. WTF?
May 20, 2020 | www.unz.com
790dB , says: Show Comment May 10, 2020 at 4:59 am GMT@skrik and @utuParfois1 , says: Show Comment May 10, 2020 at 6:08 am GMT
I'm not a geneticist myself either, check this very well documented article from Yuri Deigu discussing the possibility and method of it being engineered;
For me it sounds very plausible, and the article is very level headed. The inserted furin cleavage site in the genome, might well be the WTC7 smoking gun of this Corona saga.
It also looks like, if so, Bat Woman & an the Wuhan institute of Virology, might be the newest patsy like Osama and Lee Harvey Oswald. Or it was an accident.
@450.org in this regard I tend to agree with your 92 year old grand-mother, open minded elderly are usually quite spot on.
Regarding the virus being out there for much longer, I tend to be as skeptical as Ron Unz. However the anecdotal evidence plus the Sweeds, French, etc, speaking openly about it, warrants to take it seriously. Still it raises tons of questions; why suddenly it explodes and before was loitering around. On a personal note; I have been ill in western europe in the months of jan-feb and called it a 'virus subscription' so who knows?
Regarding, this fascinating collective research project and comparing it to the time of 911, what then happened over many years, now happens in the time span of months. I think we all should be weary this is used (premeditated?) to go patriot act 2.0, with draconian authoritarian new 'methods' and closing the control grid even further.
Is there one country in the world where we can flee too? Any suggestions are very welcome.@Iris Thank you – you are always a step ahead of others.utu , says: Show Comment May 10, 2020 at 9:11 pm GMT
That document is indeed a very comprehensive record of events and arguments about the CV-19 controversial appearance in world affairs and China's response to the usual chorus of US-led propaganda against its declared "adversary".
Still, officially, the Chinese shy away from pointing the finger at the US as the prime contender for manufacturing the bug – not even a hint. Au contraire, they insist that it is of natural origin although respected researchers have stated that there are human fingerprints on it.
From my understanding, richly extended by your offerings, the bug may show through its genome sequencing to be of natural origin but, at the same time, be an articial creation because its evolution may have been contrived through selective, but natural, breeding.
I suspect the Chinese know a bit more than what they are prepared to make public at this stage – or have not enough evidence of foul play to run the gauntlet of rigorous scientic scrutiny. They are so circumspect and so much unlike the US ruling clowns!
On the other hand, they may keep the "secret" as a useful bargain chip in the fulness of time. Cheers.@skrik Thanks for the link to Yuri Deigin analysis: "Lab-Made? SARS-CoV-2 Genealogy Through the Lens of Gain-of-Function Research." It is the best what I have seen so far on the subject. One must also read the comments.James N. Kennett , says: Show Comment May 10, 2020 at 9:34 pm GMT
Perhaps Ron Unz should consider republishing Deigin analysis.
About Yuri Deigin
http://youthereum.io@790dB The Medium article, though rather long, explains the difficulties of determining whether SARS-CoV-2 is a "natural" virus or was made in a lab. No one knows for sure. The differences between the virus and its nearest bat relative are the kinds of changes that can arise naturally; and such changes are also routinely made by genetic engineering in laboratories studying "gain of function" (GOF) in bat coronaviruses. The writer points out that an animal reservoir species for naturally-occurring SARS-CoV-2 has not been found. He concludes:
I hope this post is not used to prematurely assign blame or propagate one-sided theories. What I do hope it highlights is the scale of dangerous gain-of-function research that has been and is going on in virology. The Covid-19 pandemic really exposed its huge risks in the face of few benefits: GOF research hasn't protected us from this outbreak, hasn't provided us with any effective treatments or vaccines in time to save hundreds of thousands of lives lost to CoV2, and if there is even a 0.1% chance GOF research caused the whole thing, that chance is too high.
May 05, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
begob , May 5 2020 2:08 utc | 114In the UK, looks like Tom Tugendhat, chair of the foreign affairs committee, is spreading the China-did-it propaganda, after his comments on the BBC last week. He can file it alongside his promotion of the White Helmets and the Skripal affair.
May 03, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.orguncle tungsten , May 1 2020 22:26 utc | 81Scotch Bingeington #92
Are you referencing this USA/China research program?In 2015, American researchers and Chinese Wuhan Institute of Virology researchers collaborated to transform an animal coronavirus into one that can attack humans. Scientists from prestigious American universities and the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) worked directly with the two coauthor researchers from Wuhan Institute of Virology, Xing-Yi Ge and Zhengli-Li Shi. Funding was provided by the Chinese and US governments. The team succeeded in modifying a bat coronavirus to make it capable of infecting humans.
The research was published in December 2015 in the prestigious British journal, Nature Medicine (volume 21, pages1508–1513). The paper by Vineet D. Menachery et al., "A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence" is available here as a PDF as well as on-line .
Footnotes to the scientific paper disclose that the research was funded by both the Chinese and US Governments, including grants from the NIH's National Institute of Allergy & Infectious Disease.
Footnotes also document that the two Chinese researchers were active in their own laboratories as part of this coronavirus project.
So what lab were the USA scientists active in? Where is 'their' lab?
The quoute above is from:
A Special Report by Peter R. Breggin, MD
April 15, 2020
uncle tungsten , May 1 2020 22:45 utc | 84Likklemore #94One Too Many , May 2 2020 2:17 utc | 102
University of Minnesota? They know of these things:
Paper cited at interview with Professor Boyle Feb 22 2020
2010 study - Increase of function research
China/ Wuhan, Australia/ CSIRO, USA/ Univ Minnesota Medical School
Paper at springer: here
From Abstract: The results show that ACE2s of Myotis daubentoni and Rhinolophus sinicus support viral entry mediated by the SARS-CoV S protein, albeit with different efficiency in comparison to that of the human ACE2. Further, the alteration of several key residues either decreased or enhanced bat ACE2 receptor efficiency, as predicted from a structural modeling study of the different bat ACE2 molecules.Posted by: gm | May 2 2020 1:40 utc | 111
According to NPR the Wuhan lab only received a small amount of the grant for basic research:Also, only about 10% of the grant -- about $76,000 per year -- was slated for the Wuhan Institute. This was provided in recognition that the Wuhan lab was doing the bulk of the on-the-ground sample collection and analysis, says EcoHealth Alliance's Daszak.
Why the US Govrnment Stopped Funding a Research Project on Bats and Coronavirus
May 02, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
Likklemore , May 1 2020 16:32 utc | 43IMHO, if this Newsweek article date April 28, 2020, is credible, then Trump and cohorts should tread carefully:
Dr. Fauci Backed Controversial Wuhan Lab With Millions Of U.S. Dollars For Risky Coronavirus Research
[just] last year, the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, the organization led by Dr. Fauci, funded scientists at the Wuhan Institute of Virology and other institutions for work on gain-of-function research on bat coronaviruses.
In 2019, with the backing of NIAID, the National Institutes of Health committed $3.7 million over six years for research that included some gain-of-function work. The program followed another $3.7 million, 5-year project for collecting and studying bat coronaviruses, which ended in 2019, bringing the total to $7.4 million.
Many scientists have criticized gain of function research, which involves manipulating viruses in the lab to explore their potential for infecting humans, because it creates a risk of starting a pandemic from accidental release.[.]
Dr. Fauci did not respond to Newsweek's requests for comment. NIH responded with a statement that said in part: "Most emerging human viruses come from wildlife, and these represent a significant threat to public health and biosecurity in the US and globally, as demonstrated by the SARS epidemic of 2002-03, and the current COVID-19 pandemic.... scientific research indicates that there is no evidence that suggests the virus was created in a laboratory."[.]
NIH gave a non-denial, avoidance denial. Congressmen were on Foxnews attacking the funding. Where there is a whiff of smoke?
Additional articles on U.S. funding:
NationalInterest cites Pompeo on Foxnews defending the funding. Also, UK papers repeat U.S. funding.
stevelaudig , May 1 2020 16:37 utc | 45
When ever the US government speaks on such issues. Refer them here... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unethical_human_experimentation_in_the_United_States
Apr 25, 2020 | salon.com
Dangerous pathogens are captured in the wild and made deadlier in government biowarfare labs. Did that happen here?There has been no scientific finding that the novel coronavirus was bioengineered, but its origins are not entirely clear. Deadly pathogens discovered in the wild are sometimes studied in labs – and sometimes made more dangerous. That possibility, and other plausible scenarios, have been incorrectly dismissed in remarks by some scientists and government officials, and in the coverage of most major media outlets.
Regardless of the source of this pandemic, there is considerable documentation that a global biological arms race going on outside of public view could produce even more deadly pandemics in the future.
While much of the media and political establishment have minimized the threat from such lab work, some hawks on the American right like Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark ., have singled out Chinese biodefense researchers as uniquely dangerous.
But there is every indication that U.S. lab work is every bit as threatening as that in Chinese labs. American labs also operate in secret, and are also known to be accident-prone .
The current dynamics of the biological arms race have been driven by US government decisions that extend back decades. In December 2009, Reuters reported that the Obama administration was refusing even to negotiate the possible monitoring of biological weapons.
Much of the left in the US now appears unwilling to scrutinize the origin of the pandemic – or the wider issue of biowarfare – perhaps because portions of the anti-Chinese right have been so vocal in making unfounded allegations.
Governments that participate in such biological weapon research generally distinguish between "biowarfare" and "biodefense," as if to paint such "defense" programs as necessary. But this is rhetorical sleight-of-hand; the two concepts are largely indistinguishable.
"Biodefense" implies tacit biowarfare, breeding more dangerous pathogens for the alleged purpose of finding a way to fight them. While this work appears to have succeeded in creating deadly and infectious agents, including deadlier flu strains, such "defense" research is impotent in its ability to defend us from this pandemic.
The legal scholar who drafted the main US law on the subject, Francis Boyle, warned in his 2005 book " Biowarfare and Terrorism " that an "illegal biological arms race with potentially catastrophic consequences" was underway, largely driven by the US government.
For years, many scientists have raised concerns regarding bioweapons/biodefense lab work, and specifically about the fact that huge increases in funding have taken place since 9/11. This was especially true after the anthrax-by-mail attacks that killed five people in the weeks after 9/11, which the FBI ultimately blamed on a US government biodefense scientist. A 2013 study found that biodefense funding since 2001 had totaled at least $78 billion , and more has surely been spent since then. This has led to a proliferation of laboratories , scientists and new organisms, effectively setting off a biological arms race.
Following the Ebola outbreak in west Africa in 2014, the US government paused funding for what are known as "gain-of-function" research on certain organisms. This work actually seeks to make deadly pathogens deadlier, in some cases making pathogens airborne that previously were not. With little notice outside the field, the pause on such research was lifted in late 2017 .
During this pause, exceptions for funding were made for dangerous gain-of-function lab work. This included work jointly done by US scientists from the University of North Carolina, Harvard and the Wuhan Institute of Virology. This work – which had funding from USAID and EcoHealth Alliance not originally acknowledged – was published in 2015 in Nature Medicine .
A different Nature Medicine article about the origin of the current pandemic, authored by five scientists and published on March 17, has been touted by major media outlet and some officials – including current National Institutes of Health director Francis Collins – as definitively disproving a lab origin for the novel coronavirus. That journal article, titled "The proximal origin of SARS-CoV-2," stated unequivocally: "Our analyses clearly show that SARS-CoV-2 is not a laboratory construct or a purposefully manipulated virus." This is a subtly misleading sentence. While the scientists state that there is no known laboratory "signature" in the SARS-Cov-2 RNA, their argument fails to take account of other lab methods that could have created coronavirus mutations without leaving such a signature.
Indeed, there is also the question of conflict of interest in the Nature Medicine article. Some of the authors of that article, as well as a February 2020 Lancet letter condemning "conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin" – which seemed calculated to minimize outside scrutiny of biodefense lab work – have troubling ties to the biodefense complex, as well as to the US government. Notably, neither of these articles makes clear that a virus can have a natural origin and then be captured and studied in a controlled laboratory setting before being let loose, either intentionally or accidentally – which is clearly a possibility in the case of the coronavirus.
Facts as "rumors"
This reporter raised questions about the subject at a news conference with a Center for Disease Control (CDC) representative at the now-shuttered National Press Club on Feb. 11. I asked if it was a "complete coincidence" that the pandemic had started in Wuhan, the only place in China with a declared biosafety level 4 (BSL4) laboratory. BSL4 laboratories have the most stringent safety mechanisms, but handle the most deadly pathogens. As I mentioned, it was odd that the ostensible origin of the novel coronavirus was bat caves in Yunnan province – more than 1,000 miles from Wuhan. I noted that "gain-of-function" lab work can results in more deadly pathogens, and that major labs, including some in the US, have had accidental releases .
CDC Principal Deputy Director Anne Schuchat said that based on the information she had seen, the virus was of "zoonotic origin." She also stated, regarding gain-of-function lab work, that it is important to "protect researchers and their laboratory workers as well as the community around them and that we use science for the benefit of people."
I followed up by asking whether an alleged natural origin did not preclude the possibility that this virus came through a lab, since a lab could have acquired a bat virus and been working on it. Schuchat replied to the assembled journalists that "it is very common for rumors to emerge that can take on life of their own," but did not directly answer the question. She noted that in the 2014 Ebola outbreak some observers had pointed to nearby labs as the possible cause, claiming this "was a key rumor that had to be overcome in order to help control the outbreak." She reiterated: "So based on everything that I know right now, I can tell you the circumstances of the origin really look like animals-to-human. But your question, I heard."
This is no rumor. It's a fact: Labs work with dangerous pathogens. The US and China each have dual-use biowarfare/biodefense programs. China has major facilities at Wuhan – a biosafety level 4 lab and a biosafety level 2 lab. There are leaks from labs. (See " Preventing a Biological Arms Race ," MIT Press, 1990, edited by Susan Wright; also, a partial review in Journal of International Law from October 1992.)
Much of the discussion of this deadly serious subject is marred with snark that avoids or dodges the "gain-of-function" question. ABC ran a story on March 27 titled "Sorry, Conspiracy Theorists. Study Concludes COVID-19 'Is Not a Laboratory Construct.'" That story did not address the possibility that the virus could have been found in the wild, studied in a lab and then released.
On March 21, USA Today published a piece headlined "Fact Check: Did the Coronavirus Originate In a Chinese Laboratory?" – and rated it "FALSE."
That USA Today story relied on the Washington Post, which published a widely cited article on Feb. 17 headlined, "Tom Cotton keeps repeating a coronavirus conspiracy theory that was already debunked." That article quoted public comments from Rutgers University professor of chemical biology Richard Ebright, but out of context and only in part. Specifically, the story quoted from Ebright's tweet that the coronavirus was not an "engineered bioweapon." In fact, his full quote included the clarification that the virus could have " entered human population through lab accident ." (An email requesting clarification sent to Post reporter Paulina Firozi was met with silence.)
Bioengineered ≠ From a lab
Other pieces in the Post since then ( some heavily sourced to US government officials ) have conveyed Ebright's thinking, but it gets worse. In a private exchange, Ebright – who, again, has said clearly that the novel coronavirus was not technically bioengineered using known coronavirus sequences – stated that other forms of lab manipulation could have been responsible for the current pandemic. This runs counter to much reporting, which is perhaps too scientifically illiterate to perceive the difference.
In response to the suggestion that the novel coronavirus could have come about through various methods besides bioengineering – made by Dr. Meryl Nass , who has done groundbreaking work on biowarfare – Ebright responded in an email:
The genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2 has no signatures of human manipulation.
This rules out the kinds of gain-of-function (GoF) research that leave signatures of human manipulation in genome sequences (e.g., use of recombinant DNA methods to construct chimeric viruses), but does not rule out kinds of GoF research that do not leave signatures (e.g., serial passage in animals). [emphasis added]
Very easy to imagine the equivalent of the Fouchier's "10 passages in ferrets" with H5N1 influenza virus, but, in this case, with 10 passages in non-human primates with bat coronavirus RaTG13 or bat coronavirus KP876546.
That last paragraph is very important. It refers to virologist Ron Fouchier of the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam, who performed research on intentionally increasing rates of viral mutation rate by spreading a virus from one animal to another in a sequence. The New York Times wrote about this in an editorial in January 2012, warning of "An Engineered Doomsday."
"Now scientists financed by the National Institutes of Health" have created a "virus that could kill tens or hundreds of millions of people" if it escaped confinement, the Times wrote. The story continued:
Working with ferrets, the animal that is most like humans in responding to influenza, the researchers found that a mere five genetic mutations allowed the virus to spread through the air from one ferret to another while maintaining its lethality. A separate study at the University of Wisconsin, about which little is known publicly, produced a virus that is thought to be less virulent.
The word "engineering" in the New York Times headline is technically incorrect, since passing a virus through animals is not "genetic engineering." This same distinction has hindered some from understanding the possible origins of the current pandemic.
Fouchier's flu work, in which an H5N1 virus was made more virulent by transmitting it repeatedly between individual ferrets, briefly sent shockwaves through the media. "Locked up in the bowels of the medical faculty building here and accessible to only a handful of scientists lies a man-made flu virus that could change world history if it were ever set free," wrote Science magazine in 2011 in a story titled "Scientists Brace for Media Storm Around Controversial Flu Studies." It continues:
The virus is an H5N1 avian influenza strain that has been genetically altered and is now easily transmissible between ferrets, the animals that most closely mimic the human response to flu. Scientists believe it's likely that the pathogen, if it emerged in nature or were released, would trigger an influenza pandemic, quite possibly with many millions of deaths.
In a 17th floor office in the same building, virologist Ron Fouchier of Erasmus Medical Center calmly explains why his team created what he says is "probably one of the most dangerous viruses you can make" – and why he wants to publish a paper describing how they did it. Fouchier is also bracing for a media storm. After he talked to ScienceInsider yesterday, he had an appointment with an institutional press officer to chart a communication strategy.
Fouchier's paper is one of two studies that have triggered an intense debate about the limits of scientific freedom and that could portend changes in the way U.S. researchers handle so-called dual-use research: studies that have a potential public health benefit but could also be useful for nefarious purposes like biowarfare or bioterrorism.
Despite objections, Fouchier's article was published by Science in June 2012 . Titled "Airborne Transmission of Influenza A/H5N1 Virus Between Ferrets," it summarized how Fouchier's research team made the pathogen more virulent:
Highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5N1 virus can cause morbidity and mortality in humans but thus far has not acquired the ability to be transmitted by aerosol or respiratory droplet ("airborne transmission") between humans. To address the concern that the virus could acquire this ability under natural conditions, we genetically modified A/H5N1 virus by site-directed mutagenesis and subsequent serial passage in ferrets. The genetically modified A/H5N1 virus acquired mutations during passage in ferrets, ultimately becoming airborne transmissible in ferrets.
In other words, Fouchier's research took a flu virus that did not exhibit airborne transmission, then infected a number of ferrets until it mutated to the point that it was transmissible by air.
In that same year, 2012, a similar study by Yoshihiro Kawaoka of the University of Wisconsin was published in Nature :
Highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza A viruses occasionally infect humans, but currently do not transmit efficiently among humans. Here we assess the molecular changes that would allow a virus to be transmissible among mammals. We identified a virus with four mutations and the remaining seven gene segments from a 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus – that was capable of droplet transmission in a ferret model.
In 2014, Marc Lipsitch of Harvard and Alison P. Galvani of Yale wrote regarding Fouchier and Kawaoka's work :
Recent experiments that create novel, highly virulent and transmissible pathogens against which there is no human immunity are unethical they impose a risk of accidental and deliberate release that, if it led to extensive spread of the new agent, could cost many lives. While such a release is unlikely in a specific laboratory conducting research under strict biosafety procedures, even a low likelihood should be taken seriously, given the scale of destruction if such an unlikely event were to occur. Furthermore, the likelihood of risk is multiplied as the number of laboratories conducting such research increases around the globe.
Given this risk, ethical principles, such as those embodied in the Nuremberg Code , dictate that such experiments would be permissible only if they provide humanitarian benefits commensurate with the risk, and if these benefits cannot be achieved by less risky means.
We argue that the two main benefits claimed for these experiments – improved vaccine design and improved interpretation of surveillance – are unlikely to be achieved by the creation of potential pandemic pathogens (PPP), often termed "gain-of-function" (GOF) experiments.
There may be a widespread notion that there is scientific consensus that the pandemic did not come out of a lab. But in fact many of the most knowledgeable scientists in the field are notably silent. This includes Lipsitch at Harvard, Jonathan A. King at MIT and many others.
Just last year, Lynn Klotz of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation wrote a paper in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists entitled "Human Error in High-biocontainment Labs: A Likely Pandemic Threat." Wrote Klotz:
Incidents causing potential exposures to pathogens occur frequently in the high security laboratories often known by their acronyms, BSL3 (Biosafety Level 3) and BSL4. Lab incidents that lead to undetected or unreported laboratory-acquired infections can lead to the release of a disease into the community outside the lab; lab workers with such infections will leave work carrying the pathogen with them. If the agent involved were a potential pandemic pathogen, such a community release could lead to a worldwide pandemic with many fatalities. Of greatest concern is a release of a lab-created, mammalian-airborne-
transmissible, highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, such as the airborne-transmissible H5N1 viruses created in the laboratories of Ron Fouchier in the Netherlands and Yoshihiro Kawaoka in Madison, Wisconsin.
Boyle, a professor of international law at the University of Illinois , has condemned Fouchier, Kawaoka and others – including at least one of the authors of the recent Nature Medicine article in the strongest terms, calling such work a "criminal enterprise." While Boyle has been embroiled in numerous controversies, he's been especially dismissed by many on this issue. The "fact-checking" website Snopes has described him as "a lawyer with no formal training in virology" – without noting that he wrote the relevant U.S. law.
As Boyle said in 2015 :
Since September 11, 2001, we have spent around $100 billion on biological warfare. Effectively we now have an Offensive Biological Warfare Industry in this country that violates the Biological Weapons Convention and my Biological Weapons Anti-Terrorism Act of 1989 .
The law Boyle drafted states: "Whoever knowingly develops, produces, stockpiles, transfers, acquires, retains, or possesses any biological agent, toxin, or delivery system for use as a weapon, or knowingly assists a foreign state or any organization to do so, shall be fined under this title or imprisoned for life or any term of years, or both. There is extraterritorial Federal jurisdiction over an offense under this section committed by or against a national of the United States."
Boyle also warned:
Russia and China have undoubtedly reached the same conclusions I have derived from the same open and public sources, and have responded in kind. So what the world now witnesses is an all-out offensive biological warfare arms race among the major military powers of the world: United States, Russia, Britain, France, China, Israel, inter alia.
We have reconstructed the Offensive Biological Warfare Industry that we had deployed in this county before its prohibition by the Biological Weapons Convention of 1972, described by Seymour Hersh in his groundbreaking expose " Chemical and Biological Warfare: America's Hidden Arsenal ." (1968)
Boyle now states that he has been "blackballed" in the media on this issue, despite his having written the relevant statute. The group he worked with on the law, the Council for Responsible Genetics, went under several years ago, making Boyle's views against "biodefense" even more marginal as government money for dual use work poured into the field and critics within the scientific community have fallen silent. In turn, his denunciations have grown more sweeping.
In the 1990 book " Preventing a Biological Arms Race ," scholar Susan Wright argued that current laws regarding bioweapons were insufficient, as there were "projects in which offensive and defensive aspects can be distinguished only by claimed motive." Boyle notes, correctly, that current law he drafted does not make an exception for "defensive" work, but only for "prophylactic, protective or other peaceful purposes."
While Boyle is particularly vociferous in his condemnations, he is not alone. There has been irregular, but occasional media attention to this threat. The Guardian ran a piece in 2014, " Scientists condemn 'crazy, dangerous' creation of deadly airborne flu virus ," after Kawaoka created a life-threatening virus that "closely resembles the 1918 Spanish flu strain that killed an estimated 50m people":
"The work they are doing is absolutely crazy. The whole thing is exceedingly dangerous," said Lord May, the former president of the Royal Society and one time chief science adviser to the UK government. "Yes, there is a danger, but it's not arising from the viruses out there in the animals, it's arising from the labs of grossly ambitious people."
Boyle's charges beginning early this year that the coronavirus was bioengineered – allegations recently mirrored by French virologist and Nobel laureate Luc Montagnier – have not been corroborated by any publicly produced findings of any US scientist. Boyle even charges that scientists like Ebright, who is at Rutgers, are compromised because the university got a biosafety level 3 lab in 2017 – though Ebright is perhaps the most vocal eminent critic of this research, among US scientists. These and other controversies aside, Boyle's concerns about the dangers of biowarfare are legitimate; indeed, Ebright shares them.
Some of the most vocal voices to discuss the origins of the novel coronavirus have been eager to minimize the dangers of lab work, or have focused almost exclusively on "wet markets" or "exotic" animals as the likely cause.
The media celebrated Laurie Garrett, the Pulitzer Prize-winning author and former senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, when she declared on Twitter on March 3 (in a since-deleted tweet) that the origin of the pandemic was discovered: "It's pangolins. #COVID19 Researchers studied lung tissue from 12 of the scaled mammals that were illegally trafficked in Asia and found #SARSCoV2 in 3. The animals were found in Guangxi, China. Another virus+ smuggled sample found in Guangzhou."
She was swiftly corrected by Ebright: "Arrant nonsense. Did you even read the paper? Reported pangolin coronavirus is not SARS-CoV-2 and is not even particularly close to SARS-CoV-2. Bat coronavirus RaTG13 is much closer to SARS-CoV-2 (96.2% identical) than reported pangolin coronavirus (92.4% identical)." He added: "No reason to invoke pangolin as intermediate. When A is much closer than B to C, in the absence of additional data, there is no rational basis to favor pathway A>B>C over pathway A>C." When someone asked what Garrett was saying, Ebright responded : "She is saying she is scientifically illiterate."
The following day, Garrett corrected herself ( without acknowledging Ebright ): "I blew it on the #Pangolins paper, & then took a few hours break from Twitter. It did NOT prove the species = source of #SARSCoV2. There's a torrent of critique now, deservedly denouncing me & my posting. A lot of the critique is super-informative so leaving it all up 4 while."
At least one Chinese government official has responded to the allegation that the labs in Wuhan could be the source for the pandemic by alleging that perhaps the US is responsible instead. In American mainstream media, that has been reflexively treated as even more ridiculous than the original allegation that the virus could have come from a lab.
Obviously the Chinese government's allegations should not be taken at face value, but neither should US government claims – especially considering that US government labs were the apparent source for the anthrax attacks in 2001 . Those attacks sent panic through the US and shut down Congress, allowing the Bush administration to enact the PATRIOT Act and ramp up the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. Indeed, in October 2001, media darlings like Richard Butler and Andrew Sullivan propagandized for war with Iraq because of the anthrax attacks. (Neither Iraq nor al-Qaida was involved.)
The 2001 anthrax attacks also provided much of the pretext for the surge in biolab spending since then, even though they apparently originated in a US or U.S.-allied lab. Indeed, those attacks remain shrouded in mystery .
The US government has also come up with elaborate cover stories to distract from its bioweapons work. For instance, the US government infamously claimed the 1953 death of Frank Olson, a scientist at Fort Detrick, Maryland, was an LSD experiment gone wrong; it now appears to have been an execution to cover up for US biological warfare.
Regardless of the cause of the current pandemic, these biowarfare/biodefense labs need far more scrutiny. The call to shut them down by Boyle and others needs to be clearly heard – and light must be shone on precisely what research is being conducted.
The secrecy of these labs may prevent us ever knowing with certainty the origins of the current pandemic. What we do know is this kind of lab work comes with real dangers. One might make a comparison to climate change: We cannot attribute an individual hurricane to man-made climate disruption, yet science tells us that human activity makes stronger hurricanes more likely. That brings us back to the imperative to cease the kinds of activities that produce such dangers in the first place.
If that doesn't happen, the people of the planet will be at the mercy of the machinations and mistakes of state actors who are playing with fire for their geopolitical interests.
Sam Husseini is senior analyst at the Institute for Public Accuracy . He's also set up VotePact.org – which helps break out of the two party bind. His latest personal writings are at http://husseini.posthaven.com/ and tweets at http://twitter.com/samhusseini . Reprinted from Salon with permission.
Mar 16, 2020 | newswithviews.com
Is This Backstory The Truth About COVID-19's Origin? By | 2020-03-16T03:26:07-04:00 March 16th, 2020 |
For months the Internet has been absolutely drowning in theories about where this COVID-19 actually originated. "Mainstream" print and boob tube media have paraded their share of 'experts' for months making sure the segments wind back around to President Trump as the culprit.
Many have emailed me over the months asking me my opinion on where it originated. The outbreak erupted in Wuhan over in Commie China. As far as I can tell from my research it was known to their dictator and government as far back as October.
From the beginning I've contemplated several scenarios. That particular coronavirus was possibly leaked to their population for testing purposes and it got out of hand. Would the Reds do such a thing to their own people?
Was the virus accidently let loose by one or more employees at The Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory? Could one or more have become infected and since some infected are asymptomatic, may not have even known they were infected? Accidental.
Why would Communist China deliberately unleash a virus they know is highly contagious and that if their plan backfired it would be catastrophic to their economy? Forget their people. Communists are God-less and could care less about human life. This terrible, terrible outbreak is costing the Communist Chinese government trillions of dollars. If their intention was to experiment on their own people it has blown up in their faces big time.
An accidental transmission. I dug around and found a couple of older news stories that merit reading: China built a lab to study SARS and Ebola in Wuhan – and US biosafety experts warned in 2017 that a virus could 'escape' the facility that's become key in fighting the outbreak
"According to Nature's interview with the lab's director, Yuan Zhimin, the Wuhan National Biosafety Laboratory planned to study the SARS virus.
"In January 2018, the lab was operational 'for global experiments on BSL-4 pathogens,' wrote Guizhen Wu in the journal Biosafety and Health. After a SARS virus escaped in a 'leak' from another lab in 2004, Chinese officials worked to improve safety, but also to expand the country's capacity to continue to study the very viruses its lab had let out."
So, we know one prior incident of a leak did occur unleashing the deadly SARS virus. If it happened once it could happen twice. When did the first infected individuals actually become known? The Reds have been insisting CORVID-19 originated in the U.S. Legions have scoffed that's nothing but more propaganda. Is it?
My dear cousin sent me an article which sent me to several others I believe should be investigated for elimination purposes. Fort Detrick's labs are a scary place – the one place where safety must be the HIGHEST priority. Apparently not. Please make note of the dates in the pieces. I want readers to know I read every article and column I link. Have to and while I know it's a lot of reading, I sure hope you can take time to read them as well.
Going back to August 2, 2019 : Fort Detrick lab shut down after failed safety inspection; all research halted indefinitely
"All research at a Fort Detrick laboratory that handles high-level disease-causing material, such as Ebola, is on hold indefinitely after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found the organization failed to meet biosafety standards.
"No infectious pathogens, or disease-causing material, have been found outside authorized areas at the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases.
"The CDC inspected the military research institute in June and inspectors found several areas of concern in standard operating procedures, which are in place to protect workers in biosafety level 3 and 4 laboratories, spokeswoman Caree Vander Linden confirmed in an email Friday. The CDC sent a cease and desist order in July."
The Army just quietly re-opened its infamous germ warfare lab that experiments with Ebola, plague and other deadly toxins , Dec. 4, 2019 – "The previous commander, Maj. Gen. Barbara Holcomb, who oversaw the lab when problems were found has retired." Holcomb took over command on July 28, 2019 . That is an incredibly short command – especially for a Maj. Gen. My late husband was a retired bird Colonel. The military simply does not send a flag officer to take over command of someplace like Ft. Detrick if that Maj. Gen. had already put in for retirement. (July 28 – ? It doesn't say above just that she was retired by Dec. 4, 2019.)
Now comes these two which I feel are very important.
China's Coronavirus: A Shocking Update. Did The Virus Originate in the US? (Bold emphasis mine.)
"The Taiwanese doctor then stated the virus outbreak began earlier than assumed, saying, "We must look to September of 2019. He stated the case in September of 2019 where some Japanese traveled to Hawaii and returned home infected, people who had never been to China . This was two months prior to the infections in China and just after the CDC suddenly and totally shut down the Fort Detrick bio-weapons lab claiming the facilities were insufficient to prevent loss of pathogens. (10) (11)
"He said he personally investigated those cases very carefully (as did the Japanese virologists who came to the same conclusion). This might indicate the coronavirus had already spread in the US but where the symptoms were being officially attributed to other diseases, and thus possibly masked.
"The prominent Chinese news website Huanqiu related one case in the US where a woman's relative was told by physicians he died of the flu, but where the death certificate listed the coronavirus as the cause of death. On February 26, ABC News affiliate KJCT8 News Network reported that a woman recently told the media that her sister died on from coronavirus infection. Montrose, Colorado resident Almeta Stone said, "They (the medical staff) kept us informed that it was the flu, and when I got the death certificate, there was a coronavirus in the cause of death." (12)
This is the column my cousin sent which caused me to look further .
COVID-19: Further Evidence that the Virus Originated in the US
"The Taiwanese physician noted that in August of 2019 the US had a flurry of lung pneumonias or similar, which the Americans blamed on 'vaping' from e-cigarettes, but which, according to the scientist, the symptoms and conditions could not be explained by e-cigarettes. He said he wrote to the US officials telling them he suspected those deaths were likely due to the coronavirus. He claims his warnings were ignored.
"Immediately prior to that, the CDC totally shut down the US Military's main bio-lab at Fort Detrick, Maryland, due to an absence of safeguards against pathogen leakages, issuing a complete "cease and desist" order to the military. It was immediately after this event that the 'e-cigarette' epidemic arose."
An entire industry, what they call vaping, has been nearly destroyed. I don't do the vaping thing but it is legal. This column goes on:
"If some members of the US team at the World Military Games ( 18-27 October ) had become infected by the virus from an accidental outbreak at Fort Detrick it is possible that, with a long initial incubation period, their symptoms might have been minor, and those individuals could easily have 'toured' the city of Wuhan during their stay, infecting potentially thousands of local residents in various locations, many of whom would later travel to the seafood market from which the virus would spread like wildfire (as it did).
"That would account also for the practical impossibility of locating the legendary "patient zero" – which in this case has never been found since there would have been many of them.
"Next, Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease expert at Georgetown University in Washington, said in an article in Science magazine that the first human infection has been confirmed as occurring in November 2019 , (not in Wuhan), suggesting the virus originated elsewhere and then spread to the seafood markets. "One group put the origin of the outbreak as early as 18 September 2019 ." (2) (3)
Whew. The Wuhan origin point suddenly takes on an entirely new road of investigation and one with catastrophic consequences for the United States if in fact it's true.
The airline industry is billions in the hole and worsens by the day. AMTRAK trains. (I've been to Union Station in NY several times. Right now it's a ghost town.) Hotels, motels, restaurants, retailers and many, many other businesses and their employees are hemorrhaging money. The panic across this country is like a stampeding herd right off the cliff. Chain supply of goods – especially pharmaceuticals – has driven the schizophrenic stock market into daily psychotic episodes. ( NYC bank temporarily runs out of $100 bills as customers withdraw cash amid Wall Street crash )
Then came the Russia, Saudi whizzing contest over oil/OPEC. After that stock market day of disaster, Trump did another presser which was very informative. The team he assembled were very up front and forthcoming.One lady who spoke (She worked on the AIDS epidemic) said a lot. Much the public and the press didn't know and all they've been doing behind the scenes. She also said people really don't know how hard Trump has been working on this and coordinating all these agencies and companies.
Quest and Lab Corps spoke about the testing. During the presser one of the experts who has dealt with all the ones in the past, like swine flu, said this will end. In the meantime, they are doing everything possible along with the CEO's from Target, Walmart, CVS and others partnering with the government.
Up went the market but don't be fooled. Warnings have been coming for the past year about the stock market many refer to as a Las Vegas casino – is a massive bubble just waiting to burst. On that front the worst is yet to come.
IF the origins actually did come from accidental transmission from Ft. Detrick and we don't know that at this time , the world deserves to know. In the previous column above: "If some members of the US team at the World Military Games "
Those World Military Games were held in the capital, Hubei Province in Wuhan, China . Now, who was on that US team?
Talented U.S. military team to compete in 7th CISM Military World Games in Wuhan, China, October 21-24
Lots of names are listed from different branches of the military including Marines. What it doesn't say is if any of them, spouses, brothers, sisters, cousin, uncle – any extended family or friends were working at that Ft. Detrick set of labs when it was shut down.
If the answer is no after a 'family and friends tree' is developed for every player, coach and other personnel then chances of it originating there appear to be small. If it's found that one or even two individuals worked at that lab or had friends, family who did, that might open the door to lawsuits from all over the world against the U.S. government.
Were any of them and all the personnel treated for CORVID-19? What we know up to now is that COVID-19 has consistently hit older Americans with underlying health issues like COPD and other lung/respiratory problems. Yes, the big hot spot that has killed so many came from that nursing home in Washington State. In the past week 50 of their employees are now been confirmed cases; I'm betting not all of those employees are over age 60.
Only by identifying where ALL players were on duty during that time, family friends and their medical history would we know there's a possibility of accidental spreading if any were at Ft. Detrick during that time frame. If even one was it could be this CORVID-19 originated from Ft. Detrick and took it with them to Hubei Province. IF this coronavirus was even being experimented on there during that time period. I have no answer for that one.
Our military are usually fairly young and in top notch physical condition. Something to consider before pointing the finger.But, symptoms for the flu, colds and COVID-19 are similar. If any of them had any connection to Ft. Detrick, could their cold or flu symptoms masking coronavirus have been overlooked? I don't know.
Apr 17, 2020 | turcopolier.typepad.com
...None of this can prove whether or when Xi made a deliberate decision to withhold information in order to imperil others. However, as a long-time student and admirer of China, it is with great sadness I must concede that such a state -- and its increasingly paranoid leader -- might very well provide less than full cooperation to stem the pandemic of the century in the crass pursuit of its own interests. This may constitute biological warfare.
But even if it doesn't Xi should be brought to account for his other crimes against humanity ."
The diplomat https://thediplomat.com/2020/04/did-xi-jinping-deliberately-sicken-the-world/
likbez | 17 April 2020 at 01:20 AM
The real issue is the probability that the virus escaped from one of Wuhan labs due to the generally lax level of biosecurity (most experiments with coronaviruses were conducted on BCL-2 level instead of BCL-4 level) and serious problems with biosecurity in Wuhan BCL-4 lab as were identified by the USA inspection.
The completing hypothesis is that it was introduced during Wuhan military games and originated in the USA: type A of SARC-Cov-2 is the most frequently identified strain among HIV-infected patients in the United States and Australia and in not common in China. It probably predates China Wuhan strain (B strain )
Peddling "slow Chinese response" hypothesis just suggests the incompetence of the author: in reality they recognized this new type of pneumonia and informed the world in several weeks timeframe. Which for a new virus and a huge bureaucratic monster which is the Chinese state is not a bad responce time.
Apr 16, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.orgWilliam Gruff , Apr 15 2020 11:38 utc | 168
The year that Rutherford died (1938 [sic]) there disappeared forever the happy days of free scientific work which gave us such delight in our youth. Science has lost her freedom. Science has become a productive force. She has become rich but she has become enslaved and part of her is veiled in secrecy. I do not know whether Rutherford would continue to joke and laugh as he used to."These media and these experts, both enamored of objectivity and impartiality, have they a conscience ? Do they have ethics ?" --Chinese Ambassador quoted and translated by Peter AU1 @152
The Mockingbird mass media tools have something far more important: Duty to an empire that is staggering from crises. The pandemic isn't even the greatest of the crises that is bedeviling the empire. Even the financial meltdown is just one of the biggies. A particularly insidious crisis growing in the West is the Mockingbird mass media losing control of the narratives needed to maintain empire. This leaves the media tools desperate, almost frantic, in their narrative spinning.
By the way, everyone knows that Stephen Hawking was a guest at Epstein's Island, right? In fact, a large number of notable scientists had been guests there. Now why would the CIA want blackmail material on top scientists and "experts" ? Well, I guess that even though scientists will naturally feel obligation to their benefactors' empire, their tendency to prioritize truth might at times be inconvenient.
Apr 11, 2020 | www.unz.com
Finding the Index Case, Patient Zero, of an epidemic is critical to understanding and curbing further transmission. Dating its first appearance, sequencing its genomes, following the changes in its genetic structure, and finding the root of its genetic family tree help estimate the epidemic's scale and scope of transmission, find intermediate hosts, understand how spreading took place and curb future transmission by focusing resources to contain it. Since genetic sequencing data can only come from those who are diagnosed, health workers still rely on contact tracing to find people whose infections have gone undetected. Once a patient is diagnosed, their primary contacts must be located and questioned about relevant symptoms and, if any of those contacts themselves fall ill, they trigger a second layer of contact tracing and the workload grows exponentially. Covid-19's long incubation and asymptomatic transmission can make the search herculean: Indian health officials contacted 2,666 people after the first case was confirmed in Karnataka.
Every public health official on earth knows this yet, despite its WHO obligations , the CDC refuses to identify America's Patient Zero and attacks those–including the WHO itself–who requests the information. The thesis of this article is that the CDC's coverup will fail and the consequent revelations will hasten the fall of our First Republic 
In 2012, the Rand Corporation concluded, 'the only threats capable of destroying America's way of life are pandemics.' In 2015, after Ezra Klein spoke with Bill Gates about his algorithmic model showing how a new strain of flu could spread rapidly he wrote , "A pandemic disease is the most predictable catastrophe in the history of the human race, if only because it has happened to the human race so many, many times before." In 2017, Dr. Anthony Fauci expressed 'no doubt' that President Trump would face a viral pandemic during his tenure. In 2019, HHS' Crimson Contagion pandemic report , marked 'not to be disclosed,' found Federal agencies jockeying over who was in charge, states and hospitals struggling to figure out what equipment was stockpiled or available, and cities and states going their own ways on group and school closings. This is truly astonishing, since
Patient Zero for both the Spanish Flu and Swine Flu (the deadliest  pandemics of their centuries), were Americans. Our public health system is so ineffectual that we now host endemic diseases like typhus , usually seen only in wartime. Our public health system is so ineffectual that our healthy life expectancy at birth is lower than China's. The CDC is remarkably corrupt . The CDC has often been slow to detect pandemic outbreaks and incurious about tracing them. The CDC classifies discussions of Covid-19 Top Secret. The CDC is led by a non-scientist military officer. The CDC did nothing when the WHO issued its warning January 3. The CDC blocked Covid-19 testing for months after thousands started dying.
The CDC has been dismantling our public health system. In 2018 the White House pushed Congress to eliminate $252 million for disease security programs and reduce health spending by $15 billion by cutting the global disease-fighting operational budgets of the CDC, NSC, DHS, and HHS and eliminating the $30 million Complex Crises Fund. The President ordered the National Security Council's Global Health Security unit shut down and reassigned Adm. Timothy Ziemer and his team. Then-National Security Advisor John Bolton pressured Adm. Ziemer's DHS counterpart, Tom Bossert to resign, too, and neither team was replaced. Much of the staff of the CDC's Global Health section was laid off and cooperating countries were cut from forty-nine to ten, and CDC Director Robert Redfield sought a further $7 billion cut for FY 2021. Last November a bipartisan panel convened by the CSIS concluded , "The United States must either pay now to gain protection and security or wait for the next epidemic and pay a much greater price in human and economic costs."
A Series of Unfortunate Events.
On June 30, 2019, a pneumonia of unknown cause at Greenspring , a nursing home fifteen minutes from Fort Belvoir  The US Military Games team trained at Fort Belvoir before competing in Wuhan. , VA, killed three and sickened 54.
On July 9th, another pneumonia of unknown cause was reported in Alexandria, VA and all lung images showed the 'ground glass' shadow typical of Covid-19. Coincidentally, the CDC chose that date to withdraw the only American epidemiologist embedded with Beijing's CCDC. The following week a pneumonia epidemic was reported at a nursing home in Burke, VA and the Virginia State Health Bureau banned collective activities and began screening residents in assisted care facilities and requiring enhanced hygiene. In early August the CDC expanded its pneumonia patient detection system and, in an unprecedented civilian intervention in military affairs, shut down the Army's main military biowarfare lab (and Superfund site), Fort Detrick, MD where, a senior scientist said, the atmosphere was one of "fear and mistrust."
In late August, the Virginia Department of Health confirmed three more cases of severe lung illness of unknown origin. Between August-October, 2,500 patients reported gastrointestinal symptoms beginning before respiratory symptoms, with fever, elevated heart rate, and elevated white blood cell count–all symptoms typical of Covid-19. Many sought ambulatory care several times before hospitalization and their lung images showed a 'ground glass' shadow. Fifty percent needed intubation, many required supplemental oxygen, and some required assisted ventilation. Fifty-three died and the cause of the outbreak remains unexplained 
A similar outbreak  was occurring simultaneously in Lombardy, Italy.
The following month the Deputy Director of the CIA participated in a pandemic tabletop exercise, Event 201, that modeled a fictional coronavirus pandemic and, after years of reducing headcount, the CDC began hiring quarantine managers:
In January, after private briefings on the COVID-19 pandemic, five senators avoided significant losses by selling major stock holdings and 219 CEOs, the largest cohort ever, retired at the top of the stock market.
On January 3 ILINet  was functioning normally when the WHO alerted the CDC to Covid-19. When Beijing uploaded its genetic sequence a week later the CDC forbade its sentinels, including UW's Dr. Helen Chu  that such information suppression is common with the CDC, "I presume her lab continues to conduct the tests for research but is barred from sharing the results with public health authorities. I used to be the principal investigator on an IRB-approved, non-clinical brain imaging study for research many years ago. We decided that in the rare case we detected an abnormality in a participant's brain, we would strongly suggest that they consult a clinician. Similarly, perhaps your lab could inform a participant testing positive for the virus in your study to seek medical attention immediately." Two months later Dr. Chu ignored the CDC's injunction and immediately discovered Covid-19 fatalities in Seattle. The CDC still obstructs and discourages testing.
DETROIT – A NURSE was found dead from coronavirus after her employer reportedly refused to test her because she wasn't showing symptoms. Lisa Ewald, 53, worked as a nurse at Henry Ford Hospital in Detroit for more than 20 years but died last week after being exposed to the deadly virus. Ewald said she believed she was exposed to the coronavirus by a patient around March 24 while working in the emergency room. Neighbor Alexis Fernandez said Ewald immediately tried to get herself tested, but was told by her employer she couldn't until she showed symptoms. According to her family, the nurse was refused a test twice.
WASHINGTON -- A coroner in Indiana wanted to know if the coronavirus had killed a man in early March, but said that her health department denied a test. Paramedics in New York City say that many patients who died at home were never tested for the coronavirus, even if they showed telltale signs of infection. In Virginia, a funeral director prepared the remains of three people after health workers cautioned her that they each had tested positive for the coronavirus. But only one of the three had the virus noted on the death certificate. Across the United States, even as coronavirus deaths are being recorded in terrifying numbers -- many hundreds each day -- the true death toll is likely much higher. New York Times , April 7, 2020.
Hunting for Patient Zero
Chinese research shows that the virus was introduced into their country from elsewhere, Japanese and Taiwanese studies point to the US as its likely source, and Russian and Czech authorities share their suspicions.  Kristian Andersen , a Scripps Institute evolutionary biologist, said it is 'entirely plausible' that infected persons brought the virus into the seafood market from somewhere outside and dated their 'most recent common ancestor' as early as 1 October 2019, when US athletes participated in the 2019 Military World games in Wuhan. Daniel Lucey , an infectious disease expert at Georgetown University, said the first infection has been confirmed as occurring in November 2019, (not in Wuhan), suggesting the virus originated elsewhere. "One group put the origin of the outbreak as early as 18 September 2019. China must have realized the epidemic did not originate in that Wuhan Huanan seafood market." Lucey also noted that MERS was originally believed to have come from a patient in Saudi Arabia in June of 2012 but later, more thorough studies traced it to an earlier hospital outbreak of unexplained pneumonia in Jordan in April of that year and Western media's origin stories about SARS, MERS, and ZIKA have all later proven wrong.
The Director of the CDC is a career military officer and a non-scientist. The CDC blocked Covid-19 testing for months and still obstructs it. The CDC discusses Covid-19 in a top secret, secure facility because, staffers said, "It has something to do with China." Only under persistent Congressional questioning did the CDC Director reluctantly reveal the existence of earlier cases that had been diagnosed as influenza.
The CDC Director flatly refuses to discuss Patient Zero. Western media show no interest in investigating Patient Zero. Western media dismiss questions about Patient Zero as 'political' despite the fact that they are scientific. Powerful US Government officials acted on foreknowledge of the epidemic The media have been attacking the World Health Organization for months. President Trump has threatened to de-fund the WHO.
Death of a Thousand Cuts
It appears that China has chosen to play offense this time and its weapons may prove decisive. Most American medical laboratories employ Chinese researchers, some of whom smuggled hospital tissue samples to China during the period under discussion. This explains the FBI's medical panic  last Fall, the CDC's secrecy, and the Chinese Government's brazen demand that the US reveal Patient Zero. If China has biological samples of American Covid-19 from 2019, then its demand is just the opening shot in a war of perceptions. Uncharacteristically, Chinese diplomats have ensured that a global audience is paying attention by repeating its challenge in major languages:
Next, to garner publicity for an analysis that could have been performed on a desktop, China chose Tianhe , the world's first petaflop computer, to compare lung images attributed to vaping and to Covid-19. Using AI-assisted analysis whose algorithm's accuracy is over 99 percent, Tianhe-1 found a high probability of Covid-19 in the CAT image of a patient who became severely ill between July and August in North Carolina.
The features included white patches encroaching on the lower parts of both lungs, a phenomenon raising the eyebrows of some radiologists at the early stage of the outbreak because it was rarely seen in other types of pneumonia.
Said the AI-generated report, "The image shows features of Covid-19, and a comprehensive diagnosis is recommended in combination with epidemiological information and other clinical characteristics." The patient was one of five who presented at the WakeMed Hospital in Raleigh, North Carolina at about the same time, with acute lung injuries, according to information on the CDC website. Dr Kevin Davidson, who led a medical team that examined the patients at WakeMed, defended the original diagnosis but, said a Wuhan doctor, "The disagreement between Tianhe and WakeMed could be resolved by a laboratory test for the new coronavirus in the patient's samples. If the samples are no longer available, an antibody test can be performed instead." Pigs will fly
Truth and Consequences
There are more rounds to be fought but, if China wins, will be sweet revenge for America's many biological attacks since 1951  , including Harvard's theft of thousands of biological samples in the 1990s, and recent epidemics of mysterious origins. With ninety percent of its workforce already back in operation, if China does wins, where will the world be in twelve months if
Covid-19, like Swine Flu and Spanish Flu, began in the United States? Covid-19 began at a notoriously unsafe military biowarfare facility? The US Government and media covered it up? The US blamed an innocent nation? The US scapegoated the WHO? The US mishandled its own outbreak disastrously? The US coverup precipitated another financial crisis? China again rescued the world from the American recession?
For politicians seeking to deflect attention from their own shortcomings and curry favor with the new superpower, blaming America may prove irresistible.
Postscript: That HHS and the CDC might be involved in villainy is not news. In the 1980s Linus Pauling described the criminal lengths to which HHS went to discredit years of promising research on Vitamin C's effects on the longevity of thousands of cancer patients.
 To understand how and why republics fall, read The Collapse of the Third Republic: An Inquiry into the Fall of France in 1940 , by William L. Shirer.
 Patient Zero for the 1918 'Spanish Flu' was traced to Kansas City. Patient Zero for H1N1 officially occurred in San Diego in April, 2009, but three unrelated clusters during March suggest that transmission began earlier.
 The US Military Games team trained at Fort Belvoir before competing in Wuhan.
 The CDC does not actually count and then report the number of people who contract influenza or pneumonia during the flu season, "Because influenza surveillance does not capture all cases of flu that occur in the U.S., CDC provides these estimated ranges to better reflect the larger burden of influenza. These estimates are calculated based on CDC's weekly influenza surveillance data and are preliminary." The numbers are statistical estimates only.
 Doctor Giuseppe Remuzzi, director of the Mario Negri Pharmacology Institute in Milan, became a superstar in China. In an interview that went viral, Remuzzi talks about his explosive findings in conversations with general practitioners in Lombardy. "Do you know what happened? Certain family doctors, who have the best antennas in the territory, at least the most able and attentive ones, have told me recently that they were seeing grave cases of pneumonia, which we had never seen in other years. These pneumonia cases had nothing to do with typical flu pneumonia, they were interstitial pneumonias, they had to do CT, radiography [to diagnose it], and this was seen in October, November, December. So this virus has been circulating a long time." That was indeed in parallel with or even before the first coronavirus cases in Wuhan in mid-November. It's been already scientifically established that the virus strains in Wuhan and in Lombardy are different. Which came first, and where from, remains a matter of incendiary debate.
 The US Outpatient Influenza-Like-Illness Surveillance Network of three-thousand sentinel health care providers who report the weekly percentage of outpatient ILI visits to the CDC. China's network, modeled on the CDC's, has 70,000 sentinels.
 Washington state epidemiologist Scott Lindquist recalled, "What they said on that phone call very clearly was cease and desist to Helen Chu. Stop testing." https://reason.com/2020/03/11/how-government-red-tape-stymied-testing-and-made-the-coronavirus-epidemic-worse/
 Comment from Why The US Wasn't Ready for the Coronavirus . NYT 03/11/2020.
 March 29. Tass , "In order to unambiguously answer the question about the origin, where the first case emerged, major research needs to be carried out. So, Washington's accusing tone in comments against China occasions utter bewilderment. As for 'US trace' in the COVID-19 outbreak, we don't have this data yet. However, for a long time we have been watching with concern the US military and biological activity carried out in direct proximity with our borders. In other words, there are indeed questions for the US."
 Including the arrest of Charles M. Lieber, Chair of Harvard's Department of Chemistry and Chemical Biology and leader of a Chinese research group using nanotechnology to identify viruses.
 See The Report of the International Scientific Commission for the Investigation of the Facts Concerning Bacterial Warfare in Korea and China . Sir Joseph Needham, Lead Author
Cyrano , says: Show Comment April 10, 2020 at 8:30 pm GMTNo matter how the hunt for the patient zero turns out, I would still put the final blame on US. Because even if the patient zero is found to be Chinese – the patient -10 would most likely be an American.Patient Zero , says: Show Comment April 10, 2020 at 9:38 pm GMT
Whatever mistake the Chinese have made, even if they are proven to be ultimately the designers of the Covid 19, what might have propelled them to do something like that is simply the desire to be prepared for possible biowarfare against US.
Everybody knows that US is found of wars. Unfortunately, they have almost zero talent for prosecuting wars (like the wars have done something wrong – it's all US actually) and you have the result which is finding new and creative ways to wage wars, because you are not too good in the classical ways of warfare.
I mean it's only understandable, you are sitting, thinking about your favorite hobby – wars, and your not too good track record in them, and bright ideas start occurring to you.
You notice a bunch of lazy viruses just lounging around uselessly, wasting their youth, and you think that you found a way to put them to some good use – make some good soldiers out of those lazy, good for nothing viruses. That's what I think happened here. Even if the Chinese designed the virus – it was in response to someone else's creative ideas of how to utilize the abundance of supply in viruses for something more "productive".How do you do? I'm Patient Zero. I got a persistent cough with two straight weeks of awesome runs in 2019. This was an unprecedented combination for my nose and my asshole, as I never get anything. A panel of a couple dozen infectious diseases returned nothing. Zero positives.Colin Wright , says: Website Show Comment April 10, 2020 at 11:35 pm GMT
When there's a reliable antibody test, I'm going to get one and I shall be famous as the Gaétan Dugas of not buttfucking. And like him, I wasn't even the first.
My fortnight on the can preceded the initial June bump in 'vaping deaths' lamely attributed to Vitamin E acetate and, in a tour de force of OPSEC, to an inadvertent fuckup at Fort Detrick. This was not in Virginia, either. Or Washington. Or Detroit.
When you conduct your illegal medical experiments on the domestic population, you have a long grace period while your data is lost in the noise. Multiple introductions can be sequenced to hack and impede reporting. After that, when you're CIA, you've got focal points in the public health system to obfuscate the data down to a dull roar. Then, when it's plain as the nose on your face, you blame it on your enemy China.
As old micro explained, you have to run biological weapons through a new species to boost viability and virulence there. Who better than the poor shmuks in your own downtrodden shithole? Documentary evidence and SCO COMINT show that UNC isolated SARS-COV-2, then Battelle contractors at Fort Detrick ran it through mice, then possibly ferrets, then us. CIA let it run for a good long time before anybody noticed except us biped lab rats.
The next epidemic in Virginia is going to be CIA scumbags hanging upside down from lampposts.'The Hunt for Patient Zero'
What if 'Patient Zero' is an employee of Wuhan's germ warfare lab?
Somehow, I don't think we'll have a successful hunt.Jiminy , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 2:31 am GMTIt would be enlightening if we knew how the CDC goes about its auditing procedure. Did a whistleblower alert them and the next day the bio lab was shutdown? Knowing of the US attitude towards whistleblowers this would seem highly unlikely. Or during a once yearly audit a probable release was picked up by the CDC, and then the bureaucratic wheels are slowly set in motion. I cannot imagine a government body making overnight decisions. In other words was something noticed in, maybe December 2018, and enacted on months later?Anon  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 5:03 am GMT@Colin Wrightdogbumbreath , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 5:42 am GMT
Stanford Researchers Say Californians May Have Herd Immunity to COVID-19
Inside Edition CBS April 10, 2020
As heartbreaking images of a mass grave on New York City's Hart Island garner national attention, some wonder why California, the West Coast epicenter of the pandemic, isn't being hit harder. Stanford University researchers believe the COVID-19 virus came to California last fall and was misidentified as a bad outbreak of the flu. Now, it's possible millions of Californians were exposed to the virus and have developed herd immunity.
First of all, Wuhan lab is not a germ warfare lab. It is a pathogen research lab. The French helped build it and scientists from other countries have visited it.
Secondly, the virus came to California last fall according to the Stanford researchers. Yes, last fall, mind you. See above link. That was before Wuhan's outbreak.
I think you got it in reverse. If 'Patient Zero' is an employee of Wuhan lab, we will have a successful hunt. If 'Patient Zero' is an American, the chance of locating that person is infinitely small.@Cyrano There is evidence that patient zero is Maatja Benassi. Going down this rabbit hole explains the breakouts in the USA last year and the cases in the Lombardi region of Italy in October, November and December. George Webb's analysis are very thorough:NPleeze , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 6:05 am GMT
https://www.youtube.com/embed/ypfpx-c4gKc@Colin Wright Of course you are guaranteed not to have a successful hunt if you are not even hunting. And since hunting is imperative, the lack of hunting itself is proof that Patient Zero was, indeed, associated with Fort Detrick. The very Fort Detrick that had two "breaches" around August 2019 that resulted in the CDC shutting down Fort Detrick.NPleeze , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 6:18 am GMT
You may remember Fort Detrick as the source of the Anthrax that was sent around in late 2001. Despite that obvious breach, the CDC did not shut down Fort Detrick at that time. So, it seems, these breaches in 2019 were much more serious. But CDC won't tell you what was released – that's CLASSIFIED . Why? Americans don't have a right to know what pathogen Fort Detrick unleashed upon the world?
The fact is you boot-licking AmeriNazis don't care. If the US government murders 1 billion innocent babies you still don't care, you'll wave the flag and say your eyes were lying. Pathetic, really.I do not think the isolated cases at the nursing homes and the vaping deaths are related to SARS-CoV-2, as that virus spreads much faster and the outbreak that started in the US in mid-February 2020 would have started back in mid-August 2019. Also the vaping deaths started in April 2019 and were spread all over the country and one would have to come up with a plausible theory why only vapers were effected and why there were no "break-outs" in any of the regions where it happened. See map below (gray is 0, light purple is 1, dark purple is 2, red is 3, orange is 4, and yellow is at least 5 vaping deaths):Donald A Thomson , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 6:41 am GMT
Of course, there were at least two breaches at Fort Detrick (the nature of which are classified, of course, since Americans obviously have no reason to know what lethal pathogens their bio-warfare labs have released), so either those cases are unrelated, or the first cases were of the other breach of a much less easily transmitted virus.
What's much more telling is the US knowing much more about the virus in Nov. 2019 than China did ( here ), and that Event 201 "just happened" to simulate in Oct. 2019 the exact pandemic scenario which has unfolded.
There are countless labs in the US conducting research on coronaviruses, par. with bat components, a lot of it funded by DARPA and the NIH. See e.g. here , here , here (notice the bat in the graphic), and here (see p. 17).
Importantly, DARPA and NIH research includes "gain of function" research , which seek to construct more deadly viruses than are found in nature. Whether or not this research is "defensive" or "offensive", the fact is they create super-viruses.@BobX Good comment (there's a serious argument in your irony). If it started in the USA before China I'd expect at least tens of millions of US cases now instead of half a million. Also, the restrictions on early testing were necessary because test kits had to be rationed for the most likely cases.Stan d Mute , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 6:49 am GMT
It's still necessary to check low probability hypotheses though. Sometimes there's a change in virulence with a mutation. There's also a remote possibility that US pneumonia treaters were doing something right for COVID-19 earlier by pure luck and that's not being done now because it's regarded as an inferior treatment for pneumonia. Trying to find patient zero for a new illness is and always has been expected of all countries, not just the USA. That the USA becomes abusive when asked to do what everybody has always done is suspicious but I suspect it has a lot to do with a wounded feeling of failed superiority. firstname.lastname@example.org@CyranoParfois1 , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 6:59 am GMT
the designers of the Covid 19
Even if the Chinese designed the virus utilize the abundance of supply in viruses for something more "productive".
But are they really that incompetent? What kind of idiot designs a weapon that exclusively kills non-combatants already on Death's doorstep? Wouldn't an IQ above room temperature (presumably needed for bio-engineering a virus) presuppose the realization that a weapon must strike potential combatants and disable them?
If SARS-CoV-19 is lab made, it could only have been an African lab normally dedicated to researching Grape Drank formulas.Smashing article by Godfree Roberts – again! Although it is a synthesis of public domain information already gathered (and some published here at UR) it is much more than connecting the dots and becomes a coherent summation and logical conclusion that the US many "initials agencies" have been "gaming" another tool of their abundant arsenal of hybrid warfare dirty tricks – the only way they know of derailing the unstoppable Chinese course to condemn the US to irrelevance. And that hurts when the hubris-drunk ruling class elite (and their imitative monkeys here) proclaim to all and sundry their "chosen", "exceptional" and "indispensable" quality, now facing the public humiliation of having their snouts rubbed into the dirty to the glee of the sane side of mankind.Astuteobservor II , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 7:14 am GMT
Pity the State endowed with the capacity and resources to be a model to follow ending up as a laughing stock of a mockery – the end result of electing clowns for rulers for a money-whoreshipping clique.This is actually a very, very good point. No one in the USA seems to be interested in patient zero.Ilya G Poimandres , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 7:19 am GMT
Just retarded screams by retarded anons repeating China did it. Or that the virus is fake.So the hypothesis is then that it started naturally in the US, which figured out what it was, and that it spread it to China with their military games team – in the heart of China's travel network, just when the Chinese were moving the most for New Year?Been_there_done_that , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 7:27 am GMT
Sounds fairly Shaytan-e Bozorgi to me.antibeast , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 7:50 am GMT
" On July 9th, another pneumonia of unknown cause was reported in Alexandria, VA and all lung images showed the 'ground glass' shadow typical of Covid-19. "
" Most American medical laboratories employ Chinese researchers, some of whom smuggled hospital tissue samples to China during the period under discussion. "
Obviously the cases reported in the DC Metro Area last summer cannot be attributable to the same virus that spread from Wuhan due to different rates of infectious propagation, so it is misleading to insinuate that the early virus also caused the current worldwide outbreak.
If one presumes that both viruses came from a lab, then one should not rule out that the one causing the cases reported last year was merely an early and comparatively more benign prototype, without the enhancements ("gain of function" properties) and chimera qualities that were subsequently engineered ("weaponized") at a lab in Wuhan. Such a relationship would already be sufficient to explain why the US government officials would prefer to remain silent about this topic.
Professor Boyle from University of Illinois readily acknowledged the likelihood, two months ago, that the base of the virus that spread rapidly in Wuhan had American origins, specifically from a lab at the University of North Carolina.
What is presented in the article is not inconsistent with the plausible allegation that the current viral outbreak was accidentally released in Wuhan in November.
So I guess the resulting moral of this article is that the USA should be culpable for the ongoing outbreak anyway, somehow, because they operated Level-4 biological labs but were then too lax and allowed Chinese researchers to steal dangerous viruses from these purportedly secure labs to then be made more deadly at their lab in Wuhan.@BobX
Please do go on about how it started in the US but we hid the bodies until we could blame it on China. Godfree you are full of shit clear up to your eyebrows you Chicom shill.
US hospitals are now doing mass testing for the presence of antibodies which nobody can hide. With such a high number of both past and current Covid-19 cases, the empirical data is now showing that there had been a viral outbreak in the US Northeast BEFORE the Wuhan outbreak last year.
The presence of all FIVE strains of the Covid-19 virus in the USA against only one strain in the UK, Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Australia, Japan, HK, Singapore, South Korea and only TWO strains in China proves that the USA is where the Covid-19 virus originated.
Nuncle , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 8:39 am GMTThe Epoch Times is saturation bombing YouTube with its new documentary blaming China for the outbreak. I look forward to reading your response!HorstG , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 8:53 am GMTA hunt for a patient zero is a common Hollywood plot. By doing so, the narrative is accepted, it's a frame. Two other scenarios: A – the virus has been released by intent, in this case we would probably have multiple patients. B – there is not one "new" virus, just testing, by witch casualties are categorized as that illnesses.antitermite , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 10:51 am GMT
It's just ridiculous. Have a look at the alleged mass funeral on Heart island.Well there has been this theory going around for a while of patient zero being a 'matbenassi' or other alias linked to US intelligence https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=%23maatjebenassi (some of those may have been removed)Mike-SMO , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 10:51 am GMT
Raises more questions than answers.The two terms of President Obama seem to have been enough to render agencies such as the FDA and CDC into inept paper shufflers that were unable to respond to the situation. It is irrelevant from a public health and safety point of view what happened in China. The Federal agencies saw and/or did nothing.Valks , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 11:19 am GMT
As I recall, the FDA took about 3 weeks to even decide on a name for the virus/disease that didn't "stigmatize" anyone. The CDC "borked" what testing material was available and then took almost 2 weeks to notify anyone that they couldn't possibly handle the testing load. With these groups alone, the U.S. had no further need of traditional "enemies".
I suppose that there are some functional components of these agencies that could be transferred, possibly, to the NIH. The rest should be transferred to un-furnished trailers at Prudhoe Bay and south Chicago to collect fleas, ticks, and other vermin that might threaten the local population. That would be a matter of national safety while we chase the Carona Virus and try to keep infected people alive. I suspect that there is no option under Federal employment rules for charging negligent homicide.@BobX Why would we have to hide the bodies? You just write a cause of death that matches symptoms and go on with it. Nothing to test for until China released the make up of the virus.Godfree Roberts , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 11:34 am GMT@Nuncle The date on which the outbreak started and the phenotype of the virus, A, B, or C.Godfree Roberts , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 11:37 am GMT@Colin Wright This just in:Godfree Roberts , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 11:46 am GMT
Stanford Researchers Say Californians May Have Herd Immunity to COVID-19
CBS Inside Edition, April 10, 2020
As heartbreaking images of a mass grave on New York City's Hart Island garner national attention, some wonder why California, the West Coast epicenter of the pandemic, isn't being hit harder. Stanford University researchers believe the COVID-19 virus came to California last fall and was misidentified as a bad outbreak of the flu. Now, it's possible millions of Californians were exposed to the virus and have developed herd immunity.
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/stanford-researchers-californians-may-herd-234859052.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cueWFob28uY29tLz9ndWNjb3VudGVyPTE&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAK6GmC3TKPJgpe2V9vxx7zjoLA93QrXRzR7z8N_ku9j0LhkFPKnnI49Y2KTHhitKEru1JWiKoTX3Otg8KaOMNHqmgBwQoKCKsxuS-6WqOh61sDMENz8rLivoLczC_97IViUQcwBWDRVQhAQgvc2V-FTXhWl4LDlatgPxixJcQFZm@JiminyGeeBee , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 12:08 pm GMT
I suspect the answer to your question is contained in the agency's title: the Center for Disease Control. They had to intervene (though I'm sure they were reluctant, as you say) because a disease had escaped and they had to control it.
That would explain why they shut down Ft.Detrick AND why they banned testing for the escaped virus (probably Covid Type A) and suppressed test results. Combine DOD embarrassment (fatal to Manning and Assange) with CDC corruption (documented elsewhere on Unz Review) and you have a perfect storm of bullshit.
... ... ...@Godfree RobertsWielgus , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 12:15 pm GMT
Thanks for your very welcome and thought-provoking article Mr Roberts. One such thought duly provoked (and especially after watching George Webb's clip posted above at comment No. 14) concerns the so-called 'vaping death' phenomenon, to which Mr Webb alludes in his clip. He describes how it is important to run a weapons-grade biowarfare virus through actual hosts, in several stages beyond its first formulation in the lab, in order to increase its virulence, and that this might first include rodents and then move onto human hosts.
He also adumbrates the potential logistical difficulties attendant upon finding suitable vectors, in order to get the virus into these (presumably unwitting) human hosts. Is it possible that proprietary vaping formulations might have been used as a vector, in order to give the virus its essential 'run-around' in human hosts? I'd appreciate your (or iindeed others') thoughts on this.I have been intrigued by the language of the virus crisis, especially these two items:ploni almoni , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 12:32 pm GMT
1. Lockdown – this used to conjure up images of disciplinary measures for dangerous or uncooperative prisoners in jail, preferably high-security. Now John Q. Public is in lockdown.
2. Herd immunity – herd is a term normally applied to a group of animals. With humans, it has a contemptuous undertone. Why not "group immunity"? "Group" suggests humans and not a bunch of zebras in the Kalahari.
"Thinning the herd"
I take from this two things, at least as food for thought –
1. We are seen as dangerous.
2. We are seen as animals.@Jiminy You have heard of "plausible deniability?' That is why it was shut down.Tor597 , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 12:43 pm GMT@Astuteobservor IIGeorge , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 12:49 pm GMT
Agreed. In ALL viral breakouts the CDC would be very interested in finding patient 0. Why not this time?CDC Lifts Shutdown Order on Army Biolabs at Fort Detrick https://news.yahoo.com/cdc-lifts-shutdown-order-army-202001923.htmlTor597 , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 12:54 pm GMT
As far as the case in Maryland, if that were Covid why did the situation stop? Wouldn't it have keep spreading in Maryland?@Ilya G Poimandres My theory is that Corona Virus is a bio weapon that the US released during the Wuhan war games.Tor597 , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 1:01 pm GMT
But because of poor safety measures at Fort Dietrich the virus broke containment last year. If the US already has a cure, they could have contained it from breaking out.
What interests me the most, is that anyone in the Healthcare field will tell you that this fall was a brutal flu season. It was quite deadly. This leads to to question if a milder form of the virus was circulating at that time.@Godfree Roberts What is the significance of type B mutating slowly in China but rapidly elsewhere?skrik , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 1:20 pm GMT@skrik PS IF the HIV inclusions in the spike are present in *all* 5 types [those 5 only present in *one* country] THEN it would be pretty clear as to originKlcTan , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 1:20 pm GMT@BobX As far back as late November, U.S. intelligence officials were warning that a contagion was sweeping through China's Wuhan region, changing the patterns of life and business and posing a threat to the population, according to four sources briefed on the secret reporting.anastasia , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 1:23 pm GMT
Concerns about what is now known to be the novel coronavirus pandemic were detailed in a November intelligence report by the military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI), according to two officials familiar with the document's contents .Those analyses said China's leadership knew the epidemic was out of control even as it kept such crucial information from foreign governments and public health agencies.
CPH comment: If an epidemic was sweeping Wuhan in November changing patterns of life and business, how could the Wuhan gov't covered it up ??
This means the US military inserted the virus in Wuhan in Oct/Nov, knew an epidemic would sweep Wuhan in the next few months and tried to warn Trump to make preparations for the US.
https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273Notice that no one in the media will tell you how many patients are in each hospital. This is vital information and it is newsworthy. Why do they refuse to tell us. Even Medscape doesn't know. . https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928518Godfree Roberts , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 1:26 pm GMT
I have heard from some nurses that some are full. I have heard from other nurses that their hospitals are empty. This is hearsay. Most of these nurses are hysterical and you cannot question them and get coherent answers.
But the reason we cannot know is because the government and the media REFUSE to tell us. On my local channels in New York with Grandpa Cuomo speaking for hours every day, this vital, pertinent and newsworthy info should have been given us. They should have put it up on a screen everyday how many are in each hospital. They do not even tell us how many are in all hospitals. Nor do they tell us how many are on ventilators.
Putting two and two together, they may be channeling these patients into certain hospitals, creating overcrowding in some, and being empty in others. BUT I cannot know this because they refuse to give us pertinent and newsworthy information. Why?
Now we know that a protocol has been sent to every hospital by the CDC about how to treat the patient. Intubation. Doctors are now saying this is the wrong protocol and that the ventilators are killing the patients.
We are learning that it is not a respiratory problem, but a oxygen in the blood problem. Is this even a virus? Comments are being made about how the virus is getting into the hemoglobin without a "receptor" https://thehighwire.com/
We also learned that the government is paying hospitals MORE if they are treating Covid patients, and alot more if they put them on ventilators. This is also creating a problem with the numbers for hospital administrators who, like everyone else with dollar signs in their eyes, are guiding what doctors are to do with these patients. Further, it is clear by the Bigtree interview with the emergency room doctor that these protocols have the consequence of usurping their clinical judgment. https://www.citizenfreepress.com/breaking/physician-speaks-out-hospitals-are-getting-paid-more-to-list-patients-as-covid-19/
We also know that they are manipulating the numbers. We know this from the CDC directives given to hospitals about how they are to count Covid patients. We also know this by other measures taken which reward them (more money) if they lie, or fudge the truth. Alot of doctors already do this already to get money from insurers. I have personal knowledge about this.
They are presuming that everyone who comes into hospitals with flu symptoms or respiratory problems have this virus (what about other flus? Did they disappear?) . They are directing that doctors put down this virus on the death certificate even though the doctors clinical judgment may be otherwise. Why would they do this. Why would they try to influence a doctor's clinical judgment in this way? If they were on the level, they would not even try to influence a doctor's clinical judgment. He is in the best position to know what his patient died from.
Taking these drastic measures cannot possibly have anything to do with the flu. Scientists and doctors, biomathematicians, should have known this by looking at the numbers in China. They should have known it was the same as any other flu. Finding a new strain of virus is commonplace. They are filed with WHO all the time. See Wodarg. Com Further, David Crowe from Theinfectiousmyth.com shows that the conclusions that were drawn by the Chinese in their clinical studies had no real basis in fact.
Trump has clearly turned over his Presidency to these insane people in CDC and other government health agencies who are making money as shown by RFK, Jr., and who have complete immunity from lawsuits for any vaccines they inject into us. This immunity from lawsuits is a law. It is not a secret. The law is there for all to see. The lack of any studies about the adverse effects of these vaccines is known because none have been published. They have not published any because they don't have any. But they will make 500 billion dollars giving everyone a vaccine, and the people in the CDC also stand to gain monetarily. https://www.facebook.com/RTAmerica/videos/the-cdc-is-actually-a-vaccine-company-robert-f-kennedy-jr/607386286749107/
Here is another, among the many, microbiologist and infectious disease doctor saying that what governments are doing is insane. Wodarg.com
Could it be any clearer that the measures they are taking have nothing to do with the flu? Look how willingly the people are swallowing what the media is saying and are NOT LISTENING TO WHAT THEY ARE NOT SAYING AND SHOULD BE SAYING because it is pertinent and newsworthy information. The gaps and holes in their news coverage are as wide as the Grand Canyon. Is there anyone left with a critical mind, who doesn't just swallow whole, even when we see measures like this being taken, even when there are large gaps and holes in the information? Just count the masks, and you will see how many.@GeeBee I basically watch trends and have no technical expertise to contribute. I suspect 'vaping' was part of the coverup of the release of Covid-19 from Ft. Detrick. It certainly was never proven.George , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 1:29 pm GMT@Tor597Godfree Roberts , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 1:30 pm GMT
" released during the Wuhan war games."
Why at the Wuhan war games? Why not some other random location in China by a random tourist traveling to Wuhan? Seems like people just googled events in Wuhan and that stuck out, but to me it makes no sense.@Tor597 I don't know. We'll have to wait until the experts have completed their analyses.MLK , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 1:30 pm GMT@BobX Infectious diseases share many similarities to conspiracy theories whatever the subject matter.Agent76 , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 1:42 pm GMT
The impulse to declare the Patient Zero being a rough equivalent to the reductionist conspiratorial beginning.
Bias Confirmation is present in both. You don't get a more concise iteration, utterly lacking in self-awareness, than this:
In our last episode, Last Man Standing, we wondered if the Covid-19 outbreak might prove advantageous to China. Here we speculate about how–thanks to a bureaucratic decision about a common illness–it may cause America to lose world hegemony.
Roberts makes no bones about his for CCP China. I've enjoyed reading him for insight into what is being Transmission Belted on its behalf and, not the least, when Radio Silence is ordered.
The bias I prefer is one against knee-jerk conspiracy theorizing. As a general proposition, countries have responded in character and current condition. CCP China did as any communist country would, only more so -- first with secrecy and then an utter disregard for liberties or anything else that might at some point threaten the CCP and its current leadership.
As the pandemic spread exponentially, so did the level of complexity any conspiracy theory -- remember, exercises in reductionism -- had to account for. Killing them in direct relation to the IQ of the would be host.
I apologize for taking the fun out of this one. But don't worry, there will be future waves ad infinitum.Mar 25, 2020 How does the new coronavirus compare with the flu? Which one is more worrisome?Iris , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 1:58 pm GMT
For comparison, in the U.S. alone, the flu (also called influenza) has caused an estimated 38 million illnesses, 390,000 hospitalizations and 23,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
Nov 4, 2019 Event 201 Pandemic Exercise: Segment 4, Communications Discussion and Epilogue Video
Event 201 is a pandemic tabletop exercise hosted by The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. The exercise illustrated the pandemic preparedness efforts needed to diminish the large-scale economic and societal consequences of a severe pandemic.
Mar 20, 2020 BREAKING: Incoming Troops & MARTIAL LAW As ALL of NY ORDERED on LOCKDOWN With Strict QUARANTINE!!!
Meanwhile the national guard has been deployed and the US military is taking the steps now to have their soldiers ready for anything when it comes to dealing with those who may disobey the orders.
https://www.youtube.com/embed/ssj-b9H4Lu8?feature=oembed@GeeBeensa , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 2:26 pm GMT
Is it possible that proprietary vaping formulations might have been used as a vector
This is a very good question. A virus cannot reproduce but can survive outside the human body. When exposed, SARS-CoV-2 would survive for only hours, possibly 2-3 days. But a purpose-made vaping preparation mimicking a lab in-vitro solution would have the potential to increase considerably its survival time, as well as pass it onto smokers.South Korea only racked up 250 wu-wu virus fatalities TOTAL. America has managed to rack up 2000 wu-wu fatalities in just ONE DAY! Quite exceptional for even the Exceptional Nation. All together now: USA .USA USA ..USA . Louder now: USA .USA ..USA ..Iris , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 2:31 pm GMT@Tor597vot tak , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 2:32 pm GMT
What is the significance of type B mutating slowly in China but rapidly elsewhere?
The researchers who produced this identification of 3 virus strains, A, B and C, noted the oddity that the original Strain B, the most common in Wuhan, stayed quite stable and constant while within SE Asia, but went through much accelerated and varied mutations when taken outside of SE Asia.
This oddity could be due to:
– either an unknown founder event
– or the fact that the B type was so well adapted to East Asian that it did not have to mutate in order to survive.
Cluster B is striking with regard to mutational branch lengths: While the ancestral B type is monopolized (26/26 genomes) by East Asians, every single (19/19) B-type genome outside of Asia has evolved mutations. This phenomenon does not appear to be due to the month-long time lag and concomitant mutation rate acting on the viral genome before it spread outside of China (Dataset S1, Supplementary Table 2).
A complex founder scenario is one possibility, and a different explanation worth considering is that the ancestral Wuhan B-type virus is immunologically or environmentally adapted to a large section of the East Asian population, and may need to mutate to overcome resistance outside East Asia.
In other terms, the original Strain B would have been tailored to East Asians or to their environment.
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2020/04/07/2004999117As with hid previous report "Last Man Standing", this is an excellent article from Godfree Roberts.Jiminy , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 2:34 pm GMT@Godfree Roberts Yes I did see that explanation diagram earlier, but I was thinking more along the lines that there was a point when CDC ears pricked. When that was would be interesting to know , because then the public could determine roughly the Maryland bio lab release date occurrence. You could then say, "okay the release obviously happened before this particular date. "All we do know is when the CDC shut down the bio lab, not when their suspicions were aroused. I do think we won't know that little tidbit of information for another 25 years.Juniper , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 2:51 pm GMTAnon  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 2:51 pm GMT
The CDC is led by a non-scientist military officer.
This is false, as a quick google search reveals that the current director of the CDC, Robert R. Redfield, while ALSO a (retired) military officer, is an MD who became a medical researcher focusing on the field of virology.@Godfree RobertsIlya G Poimandres , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 2:54 pm GMT
"These techniques are mostly known for mapping the movements of prehistoric human populations through DNA. We think this is one of the first times they have been used to trace the infection routes of a coronavirus like COVID-19."
The team used data from virus genomes sampled from across the world between 24 December 2019 and 4 March 2020. The research revealed three distinct "variants" of COVID-19, consisting of clusters of closely related lineages, which they label 'A', 'B' and 'C'.
Forster and colleagues found that the closest type of COVID-19 to the one discovered in bats – type 'A', the "original human virus genome" – was present in Wuhan, but surprisingly was not the city's predominant virus type.
Mutated versions of 'A' were seen in Americans reported to have lived in Wuhan, and a large number of A-type viruses were found in patients from the US and Australia.
Wuhan's major virus type, 'B', was prevalent in patients from across East Asia. However, the variant didn't travel much beyond the region without further mutations – implying a "founder event" in Wuhan, or "resistance" against this type of COVID-19 outside East Asia, say researchers.
The 'C' variant is the major European type, found in early patients from France, Italy, Sweden and England. It is absent from the study's Chinese mainland sample, but seen in Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea.
Just want to add the article here.@Tor597 Yes, there is a lot of anecdotal evidence to this virus being around for a while. I'm not sure if it was artificial – the Novosibirsk virus lab head said that it looks natural (after carefully saying that one couldn't know if it was artificial).. https://youtu.be/2opZ3o6BrE8 (in Russian).. Everyone could be political, but the Russians are fairly honest.Anonymous  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 2:59 pm GMT
Could have been of course, but that it cripples old people instead of children, would make it a terrible weapon in the long run – just lower pension and medical costs for China.
In either case, it is the intention that matters. Whether natural or artificial, did the US intentionally spike China with it?
On the balance of its historical actions, it would only surprise me if they didn't!@Cyrano Worried about the response? Check out this video of what our heroes in scrubs are doing in the empty ER's to fight the mighty coronavirus at "Coronavirus Got Talent" on YouTube and weep not for the patients but for what had once been a civilized nation.Chris Bridges , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 3:02 pm GMT
And because "We're all in this together," remember to post selfies of you and your family holding up worshipful cards reading, "We stayed home for you, so you could stay at work for us." Got help us.This is the biggest load of crap I have ever seen. This fool even repeats the old bio-warfare canard the Commies and their Western friends spread during the Korean War! Amazing! Communist China is a brutal, aggressive dictatorship. China is a dirty, dirty place. These epidemics (and pandemics) have been coming out of China for centuries because of the way of life of the poor in China, living with their animals and consu,ing things not fit for human consumption. There are no great mysteries about this, except the question of whether the ChiComs let it escape from a bio-warfare lab, on purpose or by accident .gay troll , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 3:07 pm GMTFlimsy cover up. The symptoms of EVALI and COVID19 are identical, and according to the CDC there is no diagnostic test for EVALI. Here in California the COVID wave never crashed, and I think the thesis of previous exposure and herd immunity is correct.antibeast , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 3:13 pm GMT
The only difference between these diseases is what the CDC claims about them. CDC is now in the awkward position of making it look like "Chinese flu" is a full-blown health crisis in America, when many or most Americans have already been exposed.@KlcTangay troll , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 3:21 pm GMT
This means the US military inserted the virus in Wuhan in Oct/Nov, knew an epidemic would sweep Wuhan in the next few months and tried to warn Trump to make preparations for the US.
This is the smoking gun.
The US military's National Center for Medical Intelligence (NCMI) warned Trump in early November of 2019 that a viral pandemic was spreading in China. How did they know this fact in early November of 2019 when the Chinese discovered the new virus only in late December of 2019? Did the US military brought this virus to China when they participated in the Wuhan military games from Oct 18-27, 2019? Did the US participants who were hospitalized during their stay in Wuhan and later airlifted out of China test positive for Covid-19 after their return to the USA? Was this the reason why the NCMI warned Trump that a viral pandemic was spreading in China which would soon impact the USA?@NPleeze Remember, dead vapers were mostly healthy young people. EVALI was only a scapegoat for these outliers. Older victims would have been blamed on the flu, and indeed the CDC shows an unusually high number of flu fatalities for 2019-20. Meanwhile 80+ percent of cases were asymptomatic/mild.Tor597 , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 3:25 pm GMT
The only thing that could ever distinguish EVALI from a respiratory infection was a history of vape use. It was always a correlation and no causative mechanism was ever demonstrated.@George A random tourist bringing in a biological agent is too risky to be caught through screening.Al Liguori , says: Website Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 3:25 pm GMT
The advantage of the war games is that you have hundreds of military personnel coming into the country at the same time. It is easier to sneak something in because they don't go through the same type of airport screening.
Plus, I think for this operation you can't do it with just 1 person. You need a team of people to spread it.While the US suffers a lack of protective face masks, the US Dept. of Defense, shipped over 1 million masks to the Israeli army -- and then covered it up!Tor597 , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 3:32 pm GMT
As soon as this drew attention, the Jerusalem Post quickly altered the report.
Thanks to Archive.org 's Wayback Machine, the evidence is preserved: https://web.archive.org/web/20200408002630/https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/US-Department-of-Defense-give-1-million-masks-to-IDF-for-coronavirus-use-623976
More details at: http://judaism.is/jew-flu.html@Iris Wow, so that leads credence to the race based bioweapon that targets China.Tor597 , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 3:41 pm GMT
If it was not the B strain that hit China, the virus may not have even spread since it would have had to mutate to find an efficient way to enter the population.
I really want to know what strain Iran was hit with. It seems like they were targeted with a bioweapon too.@Ilya G Poimandres Why would that be a bad bioweapon?Erebus , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 4:06 pm GMT
It is working exactly as intended if you were an evil neocon. The world is trying against China and will bring more of their supply chain home.
Meanwhile, the west is also having the same "benefits" of the outbreak with many old American pensioners and blacks dieing out.The "Czech authority" the article links to was first cited in the Last Man Standing thread and contains a couple of smoking guns, including what I'd consider an extremely interesting, perhaps even critical one.Realist , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 4:28 pm GMT
I view this as a very important interview, but in no way does Dr. Pekova hint that she thinks it originated in an American Lab. She may have said so elsewhere, but in that particular interview she specifically does not. She initially avoids specificity, mentions the Wuhan laboratory in passing and declines to answer the interviewer's more leading questions. To suggest that she suspects an American lab is to claim the article's author can read her mind.
The italicized quotes below are from the subtitles (but the bolding is mine)
The first of the smoking guns is that the test kits initially released by the CDC were, in addition to being the viral test design equivalent of an F-35, non-specific for the SARS-2 virus. The CDC test targets the "tail" of the genome of which much is common across the Corona family, so it gives false positives for SARS-2 but doesn't indicate the crucial viral load of the SARS-2 virus itself. As she notes, " during an epidemic, that's not the way to do it. "
One may wonder why the CDC took such a long time coming up with a useless and expensive test, but Dr. Pekova and her colleagues quickly developed an alternative. It uses the same technologies as the CDC's but is simple (even a mobile lab can do it), quick (15min), cheap, near 100% accurate for both the presence of SARS-2 and the viral load, and, most importantly, it targets a part of the genome which is unique to SARS-2. No other known virus has this sequence, so the test wouldn't be picking up one or more of the 1,000s of other Corona viruses that may be present in the subject at the time.
One may further wonder why the CDC would focus on the SARS-2 genome's generic tail rather than its unique sections further towards the "head" of the genome. While Dr. Pekova never directly answers that question, she states unequivocally that a singularly important and unique part of the genome could not have had a natural origin.
Virus mutation occurs primarily in the regions that " encode (the) structural proteins that form the body of the virus (and) attack the cell ". They found nothing unusual through the bulk of the genome, BUT " what sets it apart is the regulatory region the 'control room' of the virus which is the region where replication of the virus is triggered ". " In this virus it looks like someone entered the control room as if someone entered, opened the closets and threw everything out of them, flipped chairs – and if it were a natural variant one could hardly imagine that such extensive mutations, insertions, deletions, various single-nucleotide mutations could happen accidentally and that the virus wouldn't die during this process, because the virus doesn't let anything touch this control room. " She goes on to say that while mutating structural proteins are quite acceptable as they have no impact on the virus' survival, the genome's regulatory region, the control room, must remain free of mutation. As any mutation could kill it, they happen rarely, incrementally and only to the virus' advantage. With a scientist's typical understatement, she concludes that what happened in the SAR-2's control room is "atypical". When the interviewer asks in closing whether even more dangerous viruses are being created in secret labs, she replies " I don't even want to imagine that, but it's certainly possible. ".
It's as if this virus is running a hitherto unseen, even now barely glimpsed source code so nobody knows what drives it or how it will behave. The mutations that split the virus into A, B, & C strains and their various permutations in their travels around the world are just normally expected viral mutations of no great import in themselves. Continuing the software analogy, they're just apps, morphing as they run but present no danger to the genomic integrity of the virus. They may be of great epidemiological interest, but they're peripheral in the sense that the crime, the hitherto impossible mutation occurred inside the virus' "inner sanctum" where mutations aren't normally allowed.
Dr. Pekova hopes to be looking at the SARS-2 "control room" with great intensity in the coming weeks. We can only hope that her work won't suddenly be de-funded or the results buried due to political considerations. She seems to be the only one speaking about what would appear to be a crucial distinction between genomic regions, but if the distinction is as crucial as I think it is the question whether SARS-2 is natural or has been engineered should be settled soon.
A genetically engineered, or trashed and rebuilt "control room" has enormous epidemiological implications as the naturally occurring, and expected "triggers" that control viral replication have been short-circuited. Perhaps that's why symptoms vary from nothing at all, to interstitial pneumonia, to brain, nerve and organ damage. Why some patients go from mild, to critical, to even death in hours. Perhaps that's why it seems to be able to circulate under the radar through a population only to explode without warning. Perhaps the Chinese realized its unpredictability shortly after they mapped the genome, and why they escalated a local medical emergency all the way to the Politburo and locked down so dramatically. Perhaps that's why they're pushing back against the Mighty Wurlitzer that the White House has fired up in its attempt at pre-emptive self-defence.
When the nature/nurture question's been settled, the common mutations that encode structural proteins will indeed gain critical interest in tracking down the lab it came from, but they ain't the most legally interesting thing right now. If it's natural, the notion of liability blurs – a regrettable facet of life in a globalized world. If it was engineered in the course of legitimate research and escaped the lab, liability becomes an issue. If it was engineered and used as a weapon, it's war, and if the currently accepted mutation genealogy holds, it looks to have backfired horribly.@Cyrano This is interesting.Truth3 , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 4:36 pm GMT
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/intelligence-report-warned-coronavirus-crisis-early-november-sources/story?id=70031273@Patient ZeroErebus , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 4:42 pm GMT
Were you in NC? Near Ft. Bragg?@Iris Thanks Iris. Important information.Pindos , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 4:43 pm GMT
In other terms, the original Strain B would have been tailored to East Asians or to their environment.
Or more accurately, to the epidemiological environment which includes the East Asian populations and available favourable transmission pathways. It may also be the case that the "tail" of the B Strain genome exhibited a temporary "stability" (in Dr. Pekova's) terms that it lost after a couple of less fortuitous mutations "de-stabilized" it.
Frankly, I suspect that time plays a role here as well. It went nova in Hubei, and almost immediately appeared in force in neighbouring countries, whereas Italy's disaster started almost a month later.@Nuncle The Epoch Times is a multi-language newspaper founded in 2000 by John Tang and a group of Chinese Americans associated with the Falun Gong spiritual movement.Ilya G Poimandres , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 4:52 pm GMT@Tor597 Well for the short term panic where the elephant hides from the mouse, sure – but it doesn't take out their working human capital, nor bring workers back home to look after sick children – quarantined old people is not a weapon to stop an economy, it is a weapon to cut pension and healthcare bills!!Realist , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 5:06 pm GMT
I'm not saying it's impossible, and NATO are exceptionally farsical often, but even if this did run through China and kill x% of the population, it would have improved their demographics. Honestly I'd put more money this weapon being intended for the US and allied nations, but they just decided to spike China too – otherwise they'd have been in a position like the US after WWII.
The push to get supply chains – at least for necessary production like food, medicine – yes, that would be a decent motive. But would they do so much better if there was a plague and production was in home nations? Labourers are stuck at home, so no one to pick fruit for example. Nobody buying cars when sitting at home, whether made in China or the US. The argument that it would be easier to restart a national supply chain instead of a global one is reasonable though.. Perhaps, maybe its Donald's 444D chess again!@BobX When Gleimhart Mantooso agrees with you you have reached rock bottom.Iris , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 5:48 pm GMT@Tor597 The most important oddity thrown up by the study is that the original A strain spread through West Coast USA despite not being the most prevalent in China, where the B strain is the primary cause of infection.Ron Unz , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 5:55 pm GMT
Furthermore, if we take the official "Wuhan virus" narrative for correct, the A Strain virus would have behaved as a demanding tourist, and out of the Wuhan major transport hub, would have selectively travelled to the US West Coast only, ignoring all other destination.
(The A strain can be found in Australia too, but by very the admission of Australian PM, 80% of the cases are imported from the US).
The overwhelming prevalence of the initial A Strain in the US West Coast is a blatant indication that the pandemic did not start in China.
Here is damage-control orientated article by the Daily Mail, to read with a big pinch of salt, as it is oriented to brush away the logical conclusion above:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-8204255/There-THREE-separate-types-coronavirus.html@Godfree RobertsRon Unz , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 6:08 pm GMT
Stanford Researchers Say Californians May Have Herd Immunity to COVID-19
Stanford University researchers believe the COVID-19 virus came to California last fall and was misidentified as a bad outbreak of the flu. Now, it's possible millions of Californians were exposed to the virus and have developed herd immunity.
It's always advisable to evaluate the quality of a "researcher" before quoting his shocking claims
The "Stanford researcher" in question is Victor Davis Hanson, a fanatical Neocon associated with the Hoover Institution, and someone with absolutely no scientific or medical background. For nearly two decades, he's been endlessly ranting about Islamofascists, ChiComs, and everything else along those lines.
Now, based upon zero evidence, he has suddenly claimed in National Review that most Californians were already infected with the Coronavirus. Thus, the very low CA fatalities had nothing to do with the early lockdown by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom and suggests that Trump was right all along.
Naturally, this shocking theory was very widely promoted by FoxNews and other rightwing outlets, but viewed with extreme "skepticism" by all medical and scientific experts.
Unfortunately, your gullible acceptance of the random spouting-off theories of some ignorant, fanatical Neocon may be quite indicative of much of the other evidence and analysis provided in this article@Ron UnzBeen_there_done_that , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 6:23 pm GMT
may be quite indicative of much of the other evidence and analysis provided in this article
I suppose I should be more explicit
I'm absolutely no medical expert, and all I know about the Coronavirus is what I've read about it. But although most things are disputed, one thing that almost everyone seems to agree about is that it is *extremely* infectious. For example, most experts believe that in America a tiny handful of infected individuals in early/mid January had produced something like 250,000 infections just seven weeks later. Similarly, hundreds of thousands of Italian infections are supposedly traced back to a single visitor from Germany a couple of months earlier. The Chinese certainly recognize the extremely infectious nature of the virus. Okay.
But in your piece, you are arguing that the virus was already circulating in various parts of Virginia in June and July of 2019. If so, wouldn't we have expected to see many hundreds of thousands of Americans infected by later that year, producing exactly the same sort of gigantic health crisis we're now facing? You seem to be suggesting that the CDC tried to "cover up" the outbreak. But once thousands or tens of thousands of Americans were dying, wouldn't that cover-up have failed?
It's obviously possible that some random mutation suddenly made the virus either far deadlier or vastly more contagious. But except for that possibility, backed by no evidence, I just can't see how the virus could have been circulating in the US almost a year ago without anyone noticing the consequences.
There certainly seem to be many puzzles about both the nature of the virus and its origins. But its extremely rapid spread in any community seems one of the few things about which everyone agrees.
For these reasons, I just don't see how the theory advanced in this article makes any sense at all.@Ron UnzReally No Shit , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 6:39 pm GMT
" But its extremely rapid spread in any community seems one of the few things about which everyone agrees. "
Please see my comment (#25):
Must distinguish between early prototype and enhanced version.@nsa The good old United States of America was built up largely by the folks of protestant stock from the British isles and had it stayed that way then none of this shit would have happened you can blame the speculators for ruining the best country in the world. Now let me hear three loud cheers from you USA, USA, USA!Alden , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 6:46 pm GMT@Anon Hart Island NYC is where the city buries unclaimed bodies and bodies whose friends and relatives can't pay for a funeral.anon  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 7:02 pm GMT
The burials aren't done every day. The burials are done a couple times a week depending on how many bodies there are.
This isn't some Year of the Plague mass burial. It's just the regular weekly or biweekly burials.In comment 95 Dr. Unz is arguing that rapid spread of the virus makes it implausible that it simmered in the population for a long time. There are a couple of problems with this.last straw , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 7:09 pm GMT
This argument presumes that doubling time or exponential growth is an immutable property of the virus. Even if the virus does not mutate, this is not the case. The spread of infections is a stochastic process of transition probabilities among several ergodic states, (let's base it loosely on overwhelmed NY:)
healthy to sick: .006
sick to dead: .2
sick to recovered: .8
recovered to immune: .94
immune to sick: .0002
Now you can put these in a matrix and invert it to find the steady state, and you can iteratively multiply the transition matrix by a vector of who's in what state. The result is not exponential. It's the product of a markov chain. The growth rate of infection changes continuously, accelerating, then converging to an asymptote as you approach the steady state. It increases quite slowly at first.
This variability is compounded if the virus mutates. And on a novel virus' first introduction to a new species it's likely poorly adapted, floundering around for toeholds on your unfamiliar epithelial cells. As the virus adapts, it may spread more quickly, kill more quickly, or abate to a sniffle, or some of each.
So treating the growth rate as a constant is superficially plausible but it elides two separate stochastic processes. In the real world it is not dispositive.@Realist There were some cases of pneumonic plague reported at the same time. I wonder if there was some mix-up in the news.utu , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 7:30 pm GMT
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/13/world/asia/plague-china-pneumonic.html@Erebus " one could hardly imagine that such extensive mutations, insertions, deletions, various single-nucleotide mutations could happen accidentally and that the virus wouldn't die during this process "glib , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 7:34 pm GMT
Her argument is frequently used by creationists that the evolution form A=>B must pass through intermediate stages C (A=>C=>B ) that can be deleterious to survival. The argument is not an iron clad because it's probabilistic like everything in genetics. The key word here is 'must'. There are too many paths from A=>B to know all about them and their improbabilities. So, while I like what she said, I am afraid she would back off if she was challenged by somebody who knows as much as she does but is not keen on her conclusion.
New virus makers could go around the problem altogether by creating the intermediate stage viruses and introduce them into the natural environments (like bats and pangolins) and then having them discovered by a 'friendly' scientist and published and cataloged in the virus directory. So when the suspect new virus is studied, its natural antecedents would be waiting in the catalog to be found to show a plausible natural evolutionary path.
I doubt that she write a paper about it and if somebody did it won't see the light of day.Great post Godfree. The only thing it lacks are the numerous references to scientific papers that point to an earlier origin of the virus (the main thesis of your post). I did a quick & dirty job of adding a couple in the link below but there are at least three papers, from France UK and Italy, also pointing to an earlier origin (and it was done through a variety of analysis methods, so a fairly robust conclusion). If I do the leg work will you add the papers to your article as a single footnote?foolisholdman , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 7:44 pm GMT
http://smoothiex12.blogspot.com/2020/04/sicky-covid-19-board.html@Stan d Mute There are other uses for viruses than as weapons. There are apparently, researchers working illegally (Illegally, because the viruses involved are so dangerous) in secure labs, trying to find viruses to make a vaccine against AIDS. The point of doing such research, in spite of the dangers of such research, is that the person or team who successfully develops such a vaccine, will be multi-millionaires.utu , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 7:46 pm GMT@Ron Unz " gullible acceptance " – It was not just his gullibility that made him believe it but his strong confirmation bias. Almost always the weakness of mind is entangled with the weakness of character.Realist , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 8:03 pm GMT@last strawPatient Zero , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 8:03 pm GMT
There were some cases of pneumonic plague reported at the same time. I wonder if there was some mix-up in the news.
Possibly, but you will be attacked for going against the official US government proclamations.Truth3, re 84, no, I was not. I think we will find multiple introductions in spring 2019 or earlier. You wonder, does the raw data of last year's false-negative FilmArray panels still exist? The physical samples would be gone, of course, but there's plenty of storage capacity for the raw genetic results. They might show common anomalies for us mystery cases.skrik , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 8:04 pm GMT@utu Most probably only one single 'entity' on the planet that could prompt/make/deploy such a vile virus. rgdsNPleeze , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 8:20 pm GMT@utu LOL, nobody has a higher bot army than the Evil Empire's propaganda network. They combine humans with AI bots.NPleeze , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 8:23 pm GMT
In fact when I read message boards on sites like Breitbart, Inforwars, and the other AmeriNazi/ZioNazi sites, I tend to think about 95% of the posts are from poorly programmed AI bots. I mean, can humans REALLY be that stupid and ignorant?@utu Says the pervasively idiot troll with a massive yet primitive confirmation bias, which only steadily confirms that utu is a moronic troll of little moral substance, integrity or critical reasoning skills, and a fragile character and ego.Ship Track , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 8:28 pm GMT@Erebus Why does the Wuhan coronavirus genome end in aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa (33 a's)?Ship Track , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 8:40 pm GMT
If you taught the children of a tribe of Talmudic Rabbi's obsessed with gematria how to use Crispr, what kind of numbers games would they play with a Corona Virus? What kind of Amalek style revenge would they dream up?@Ron Unz I consider this "Virus" to be one part of a bio-weapon tool kit. The US military looted all German and Japanese bio-weapons and know how immediately after the war. They even unleashed forms of bio-weaponized syphilus on black soldiers in the '50's and the sprayed the Bay Area with various toxins and bacteria in the 1950's and 1960's. The LSD wave of mind poisoning, originating out of Stanford and the Bay Area in the 1950's as part of MKultra was also a form of bio-weapon.Cyrano , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 8:40 pm GMT
So I doubt anyone would argue that the US has a complete arsenal of bio-weapons. Since we know little about the real US bio-weapons programs, we must look to weapons programs we are aware of to draw comparisons. A predator drone, a F-35, a Nimitz aircraft carrier are all multi-purpose, as are most weapons in the US arsenal.
It is therefore quite logical to assume that the US has more than one form of CV19, more that one form of delivery, more than one form of test kit, more than one form of antidote and/or vaccine.
One very plausible explanation for Victor Hansen expressing a very common held view that there has been a very nasty flu/cold strain going around Ca and Wa for months is that it is true and that there was a pre-release of a milder virus. This could have also happened all over or on many other parts of the US.
One way of using a CV19 tool kit would be to release a less lethal stain, perhaps even more contagious, among your population to build up herd immunity before you release the "Little Boy" bio-weapon on Wuhan (Nagasaki).
This is all just SOP for the Talmudists.I think that there could be a different dynamic at play here vis-a-vis the Corona. The news in the past few years have been full of stories about intellectual property theft by the Chinese.utu , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 8:51 pm GMT
I think that the US wants to demonstrate to the world that it's payback time. I mean look, it wasn't a coincidence that Trump wanted to put a label on the good old Corona – "Made in China".
There was a purpose behind this. He wanted to teach the Chinese a lesson, that even though they are the ones that created the Corona, the US can steal their intellectual property and run the numbers higher than any country in the world.
I think that they succeeded in this. As of today, US are the country with the highest numbers of Corona infections in the world, as well as fatalities. So take that China. US is still number one.@anonShip Track , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 8:57 pm GMT
The growth rate of infection changes continuously, accelerating, then converging to an asymptote as you approach the steady state. It increases quite slowly at first.
Probability of the growth slowing down and the process lingering on at a very low level so the number of infected individuals remain so low that is below the critical point for the process to take off exponentially into a major breakout is very small and only gets smaller with every additional infected individual. Time works against you. Basically you have two possibilities. The process either dies out or it takes off exponentially.
Probability of major breakout is P=1-(γ/β)^k where
k- is number of infectious individuals
γ – recovery rate
β – transmission rate
If k increases P->1.
You can run many trajectories to calculate the probability of the breakout not taking off and not dying out and remaining below radar (k very small) from September 2019 to January 2020 in America. And you may not invoke mutations as your deus ex machina .Zero Hedge is peddling the Epoch Times "Steele Dossier"NPleeze , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 8:59 pm GMT
ZH was banned from twitter a couple of months ago when it released an expose on the Bio research facility in Wuhan. Since that banning, ZH has been mounting a propaganda war against China parroting all the official CIA narratives. They have even sunk so low that now they even push the "China knew about how bad the virus was but didn't tell the US". It is clear that the US intelligence agencies were well aware of CV 19 already before the end of 2019 and the virus is even named with 19 (Notice how CV19 has the 1 and the 9 like 9/11?).
But ZH keeps needling China like I have never seen them do to Russia or Iran in the past. Something has changed there .@Ron UnzIris , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 9:01 pm GMT
Thus, the very low CA fatalities had nothing to do with the early lockdown by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom and suggests that Trump was right all along.
Now that is utterly hilarious and, of course, non-sensical.
The NY lockdown started on March 20, 2020, and California's lockdown started on wait for it March 20, 2020. LOL!!!!!! At that time , NY had 8,299 confirmed cases and CA had 1,095 confirmed cases (though CA had done far less testing so who knows). Why is it, that at that time, CA had less cases? Something to do with authoritarian martial law "being on the minds" of Californians and saving them from imminent death?
There are a number of differences between the two states, and having lived a long time in both, the two that strike me as most relevant are: East Coast has a far higher population density with vastly more person-to-person contact while going about daily business (from walking on crowded sidewalks, to riding on the subway, to living in highrises and sharing hallways/elevators/parking garages, to the local shops, to congregating in neighborhood parks, etc.). Also, California is much less inter-generational within a home, and really the greatest contagion risk is a young person (who is immune, asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic) coming home and bringing the virus with him/her to infect his/her parents or grandparents.@NPleezeploni almoni , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 9:03 pm GMT
LOL, nobody has a higher bot army than the Evil Empire's propaganda network. They combine humans with AI bots.
So very true. The UK's Daily Mail is a good example too. Under any hot propaganda article, readers' comments become suddenly very short and expeditious like a subliminal message, without any of the style specificities found with real human. These comments are of course always "Best rated" too, lol.@glib Don't fall for it, Godfreeploni almoni , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 9:13 pm GMT@Anonymous The Calvinist's idea of fun is burning witches at the stake.utu , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 9:13 pm GMT@NPleeze "The great snare of the psychologist is the confusion of his own standpoint with that of the mental fact about which he is making his report. I shall hereafter call this the 'psychologist's fallacy' par excellence." – William Jamesthetruth , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 9:41 pm GMTSomething interesting happens. US CDC usually updated the estimated number of Flu deaths (including pneumonia) once a week. They just published the total number of estimated flu death between Oct. 1, 2019 to April. 4th, 2020, here is the linkRon Unz , says: Show Comment April 11, 2020 at 9:42 pm GMT
CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through April 4, 2020, there have been:
24,000 – 62,000
I made a screen shot for the the numbers up to March 28, the number is almost identical, except the upper range is 1000 more. The new week revised down by 1000.
CDC estimates* that, from October 1, 2019, through March 28, 2020, there have been:
24,000 – 63,000
I put the screenshot here
flu deaths up to March 28
so what is the conclusion here? at least for this one week, 100% of the so called Flu deaths are actually Covid-19 deaths. That is why the flu death number remains the same. The deaths counts are all under Covid-19. Then what about the previous numbers? Since US CDC has never started to test the Covid-19 until mid-March. Could they be ALL Covid-19 deaths, or at least a LARGE part of them were Covid-19 deaths? I guess no one knows for sure, but it is very possible!@NPleeze
Thus, the very low CA fatalities had nothing to do with the early lockdown by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom and suggests that Trump was right all along.
Now that is utterly hilarious and, of course, non-sensical.
The NY lockdown started on March 20, 2020, and California's lockdown started on wait for it March 20, 2020. LOL!!!!!!
No, I think you're mistaken. Here's an excerpt from the San Jose Mercury News analyzing California's success:
The Bay Area's first-in-the-country orders for residents to stay home -- starting March 17 -- followed several days of increasing restrictions on public gatherings and were emulated by other California counties. On March 19, Gov. Gavin Newsom mandated that all 40 million Californians stay home unless they worked essential jobs. New York's statewide stay-home order came March 22.
But by then, New York's cases had multiplied to 15,168 -- 10 times the 1,536 in California at the time.
Keep in mind that the SF Bay Area had been the California epicenter, and it had the first lockdown in the country, coming some five days before NY. Given the exponential spread of the infection, I've pointed out that a timing difference of just one week can plausibly produce a death-toll 25 times(!) greater:
I'm certainly not claiming that the only reason for CA doing so well relative to NY was the timing of the lockdowns, with urban density and mass-transit probably being additional factors. But I do believe that timing was the most important factor explaining why the per capita death rate in NY is more than 30x greater than CA.
Mar 24, 2020 | www.unz.com
China suffered through the H1N1 coronavirus epidemic in 2008 largely because the CDC took 6 months to identify it and, as a result, 300,000 died prematurely. SARS (774 deaths) was the clincher. They created a hair-trigger alarm system, mandated post-mortem pneumonia DNA testing nationwide, and promoted the CDC head, Dr. George F. Gao  to Demigod.
Their Covid-19 emergency has now passed and must give Dr. Gao a B+ because, though his system contained a potential epidemic it suffered from a weakness: local politicians could delay, (but not stop) the alarm sounding. Doubtless for sound bureaucratic reasons, Wuhan officials delayed notifying Beijing for a few weeks but, after Beijing pried the information from the Wuhan Director of Public Health  They fired him the next day. Henceforth local politicians will be out of the loop and everyone will have a CDC hotline number. , the system swung into action, everyone pitched in, and they literally killed it.
National cohesion and coordination were amazing, thanks to the Communist Party. They coordinated everything and filled all the gaps, no questions asked. Ninety percent of the frontline volunteer medical staff -- of whom 18 died -- were Party members sworn to 'bear the people's burden first and enjoy their pleasures last.' Zhang Wenhong, a prominent Party member and Director of the Department of Infectious Diseases at Shanghai's Huashan Hospital, became a local hero for his pep-talk to Party members [emphasis added]:
The first-aid team put themselves in great danger. They are tired and need to rest. We shouldn't take advantage of good people. From now on, I'll replace all the frontline medics with Party members from different sectors. When we joined the Party, we vowed that we would always prioritize people's interests and press forward in the face of difficulties. This is the moment we live up to the pledge. All CPC members must rush to the front line. I don't care what you were actually thinking when you joined the party. Now it's time to live up to what you promised. I don't care if you personally agree or not: it's non-negotiable .
Altogether, 40,000 volunteers self-organized and showed up to help Wuhan.
Now the storm has passed and China has become the world's Santa Claus, giving out goodies and turning a potential disaster into a real triumph.
Nothing would make that triumph sweeter than the public revelation that our CDC knew about Covid-19 last September. Like many national public health systems, the CDC ignores novel Coronaviruses every 'flu season and blends their effects in with the immense, fluctuating number of annual deaths. That's why, back in 2008, the CDC took so long to detect H1N1: they weren't looking.
Same old, same old until January 1, when China identified a nasty Coronavirus and the US went ballistic and blamed them for starting a pandemic and insulted their culture and their government.
But they handled Covid-19 so competently that they won the world's admiration  and made our attacks on them look mean, but no big deal. People will forget about the huge fuss we made and just remember vaguely that China is filthy and its leaders are liars. Except for two things:Their society's health policies are more compassionate than ours , as older readers will realize. They have always placed a higher societal value on eighty year-olds than we do. So when they were threatened with premature, painful deaths, they put their entire economy on hold for two months and cooperatively saved their parents and grandparents, to worldwide applause (at least from my age-group). Now China is competing to have the lowest per capita Covid-19 death rate of any major country. The world suspected that Covid-19 was circulating outside China last year when they recalled this : First Vaping Death Reported by USA Health Officials . August 2019, "Amid the lack of information , investigators scrambled to find shared links to the respiratory problems. Officials said earlier this week that many patients, most of whom were adolescents or young adults, had described difficulty breathing, chest pain, vomiting and fatigue ." Covid-19 symptoms. If that's too speculative, here's what NPR turned up: Other Countries can Learn Important Lessons from Italy , says Dr. Giuseppe Remuzzi, co-author of a recent paper in The Lancet about the country's dire situation. The takeaways include how to swiftly convert a general hospital into a coronavirus care unit with specially trained doctors and nurses. "We had dermatologists, eye doctors, pathologists, learning how to assist a person with a ventilator," Remuzzi says. Some question why Italy was caught off guard when the virus outbreak was revealed on Feb. 21. Remuzzi says he is now hearing information about it from general practitioners. " They remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November. This means that the virus was circulating, at least in northern Lombardy before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China. "
The WHO has not requested the data from CDC because the US has been attacking the WHO daily and Dr. Ghebreyesus knows the US can get him fired. But Dr. Ghebreyesus and Dr. Gao and every Health Minister on earth know the truth. Dr. Remuzzi's Italian DNA is traceable. So is China's. The world is very good at tracing Coronaviruses back through their generations and China has done so and now it seems the shit is about to hit the fan.
Here's what happened in Chinese cyberspace today ( Thomas Hon Wing Polin, Facebook ):
WUHAN OUTBREAK: CHINA DEMANDS AN HONEST ACCOUNTINGIt is now virtually certain that COVID-19 was brought to Wuhan by American troops taking part in the city's World Military Games last Oct. 18-27. The 300-strong US contingent stayed 300 meters from the Huanan Seafood Market where China's outbreak began (see map below) at the Wuhan Oriental Hotel. Five of the US troops developed a fever on Oct. 25 and were taken to an infectious-diseases hospital for treatment. 42 employees of the Oriental Hotel were diagnosed with COVID-19, becoming the first cluster in Wuhan. At the time only 7 people from the market had been thus diagnosed (and treated before the hotel staff). All 7 had contact with the 42 from the hotel. From this source, the virus spread to the rest of China. The American Military Games team trained at a location near Fort Detrick, the military's viral lab closed down by the CDC in July for various deficiencies. The big question now is whether the transmission was planned, or accidental. Chinese authorities are awaiting an explanation from US authorities. A few days ago, Mike Pompeo phoned Yang Jiechi, Chinese State Councillor for Foreign Affairs. Pompeo's counterpart is actually Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Yang is Wang's boss, so Pompeo wanted to talk about something urgent and important. Pompeo wanted the Chinese not to publicize what they had found. Yang's reply: "We await your solemn explanation, especially about Patient Zero."
China's leaders have long suspected US military involvement in the Wuhan outbreak but were determined to stop the disease before pursuing the Americans for an honest accounting.
 Dr. Gao has made contributions to the study of inter-species pathogen transmission. He organized the first World Flu Day on November 1 2018, commemorating the centenary of the Spanish flu. It was also the 15-year commemoration of the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, SARS, which led to China prioritising investment in the public health system. He is a virologist and immunologist. He has served as Director of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention since 2017 and Dean of the Savaid Medical School of the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences since 2015. Gao is an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and The World Academy of Sciences, as well as a foreign associate of the US National Academy of Sciences and the US National Academy of Medicine. He was awarded the TWAS Prize in Medical Science in 2012 and the Nikkei Asia Prize in 2014.
 They fired him the next day. Henceforth local politicians will be out of the loop and everyone will have a CDC hotline number.
 Dr Bruce Aylward, head of the WHO International Mission said,"In the face of a previously unknown disease, China has taken one of the most ancient approaches for infectious disease control and rolled out probably the most ambitious, and I would say, agile and aggressive disease containment effort in history. China took old-fashioned measures, like the national approach to hand-washing, the mask-wearing, the social distancing, the universal temperature monitoring. But then very quickly, as it started to evolve, the response started to change . . . So they refined the strategy as they moved forward, and this is an important aspect as we look to how we might use this going forward. WHO has been here from the start of this crisis, an epidemic, working every single day with the government of China WHO was here from the beginning and never left. What's different about this mission is it's complementing a lot of other external experts."
Godfree Roberts , says: Show Comment March 22, 2020 at 1:47 pm GMTSince this was published, Ron has queried me on the dates and here is what I came up with:George F. Held , says: Show Comment March 22, 2020 at 2:23 pm GMT
It has been spreading for the same amount of time in both China and the US but China has a detection system for novel Coronaviruses and we don't.
If it started October 12 in the US it had time to incubate, spread to Lombardy, and infect Wuhan hotel workers on October 27, during the Military Games (i.e., almost November).
It killed 3200 there and they noticed and got on it.
We didn't notice when it killed 3200 here because we forbade testing until early March*. The CDC planned to bury our 3200 in the stats for a bad 'flu season (which this is) as it always does.
Then, when China reported the outbreak there, instead of saying nothing they blamed China for causing it -- the kind of stupidity (like starting a trade war with the world's biggest economy when our economy was already shaky) the White House specializes in.
If we begin a proper national testing program like China's -- and signs are that we won't -- total 'flu/Coronavirus deaths will match our worst season in 40 years: January 6, 2020: Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said while it's impossible to predict how the flu will play out, the season so far is on track to be as severe as the 2017-2018 flu season, which was the deadliest in more than four decades , according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention." The initial indicators indicate this is not going to be a good season -- this is going to be a bad season," Fauci said.
If only we'd kept our mouths shut
* https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/10/us/coronavirus-testing-delays.html"It is now virtually certain that COVID-19 was brought to Wuhan by American troops taking part in the city's World Military Games last Oct. 18-27."anon  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 22, 2020 at 4:15 pm GMT
virtually certain or . . . speculated by someIt started way before October. The bullshit induced moral panic over pot-vaping I mean illness spiked in August.Bruce Arney , says: Show Comment March 22, 2020 at 5:20 pm GMT
And this commenter got it before that. With no vaping of anything. I don't get anything. So did xymph. It was persistent and bad but fortunately pneumonia and fibrosis did not ensue. And Lola Short was not the first fake flu death, either. CDC emergency response is classified in part because they were testing for it novel coronavirus along.
EVALI my ass, that was CIA OPSEC.An amazing and truly mind-blowing article, hopefully, it will not fall into the memory hole or be 'accidentally' erased. It reveals the ugly little wizard hiding behind the American flag.Anonymous  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 22, 2020 at 7:33 pm GMTThis is why Harvard chemistry chair Prof. Charles Lieber got rolled up with trumped up charges when this outbreak hit the news.Iris , says: Show Comment March 22, 2020 at 7:41 pm GMT
Lieber's specialty was in virus detection tech. His work in Wuhan enabled China to detect an accidental or intentional virus spread by the US relatively early. China's response to the outbreak alerted the US to this fact, so the feds brought the hammer down on Lieber.
Two of the world's biggest threats may someday be reduced by wires thousands of times thinner than a hair but capable of detecting a single virus. The specter of worldwide viral epidemics is always with us, so detecting them quickly offers the possibility of saving thousands of lives. The pathogens also can be stealthy biological weapons, making their positive detection a vital national defense requirement.
"We want to find a single virus before it finds you," says Charles Lieber, Hyman Professor of Chemistry at Harvard University. Tests recently completed in his laboratory show that these unimaginably thin nanowires can sense and distinguish between viruses that cause flu, measles, and eye infections. Lieber believes future versions will be able to spot HIV, Ebola, SARS, West Nile, hepatitis, bird flu, and other dangerous viruses.
"Viruses are among the most important causes of human disease and are of increasing concern as agents for bioterrorism," Lieber says. "Our work shows that nanoscale silicon wires can be configured as detectors that turn on or off in the presence of a single virus particle. Such detectors could be fashioned into arrays capable of sensing thousands of different viruses, ushering in a new era for diagnoses, biosafety, and quick response to viral outbreaks."Many thanks to the author for yet another great article.foolisholdman , says: Show Comment March 22, 2020 at 9:56 pm GMT
Assuming the best case scenario, that it was only incompetence that made the US miss the outbreak of a pandemic on its soil, a fair conclusion is that the Chinese government has more care and more respect for its people than so-called "democracies" . Unlike others, China took the pain to identify and contain an epidemic that would have otherwise taken a high toll on the elderly, the vulnerable and health personnel.
Not everyone believes in the best case scenario, however.
From CGTN Chinese website, this "1o Questions to the US government " article asks in particular:
-- As the ground glass opacity (white patches) can be easily seen in CT scans of the lungs of patients with the novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia, it should have been an easy thing to separate the cases of COVID-19 and H1N1 flu. But why were there so many misdiagnoses?
-- Why are there new [US] biological laboratories in Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan? Are those labs for biochemical warfare?
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-03-19/10-questions-for-the-U-S-Where-did-the-novel-coronavirus-come-from -- OZrgRTSZfa/index.htmlRon Unz , says: Show Comment March 22, 2020 at 9:59 pm GMT
"Nothing would make that triumph sweeter than the public revelation that our CDC knew about Covid-19 last September. "
Take a look at this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MCEM5dPZP8kWell, unless I'm missing something huge, the hypothesis advanced in this article makes absolutely no sense at allIris , says: Show Comment March 22, 2020 at 11:04 pm GMT
Apparently, the claim is that Coronavirus began circulating in the US as early as August 2019, but the results were misclassified as "vaping deaths."
This seems totally nuts to me. As we know from China, Northern Italy, and most recently New York, Coronavirus is *extremely* contagious. In the absence of severe government restrictions, the number of infected individuals tends to double every 3-5 days, thereby increasing by a factor of something like 100-1000x per month. And it seems to kill at least 1% of the population, perhaps rising to 5% when the health system collapses under the strain of the 20% who require hospitalization.
If the Coronavirus had been circulating in America in August 2019, we probably would have seen a million dead Americans by the end of the year, and I don't remember reading about it in my morning newspapers.
But let's ignore that part of the article, and go to the next point, namely that several of the American military officers visiting Wuhan in October 2019 had *accidently* been infected in the US, and thereby spread it to China.
America has a population of something like 330 million, and if so few Americans were infected in October 2019 that nobody here noticed, the likelihood that tiny handful would happen to include the ones visiting Wuhan is nil.
Even in such extraordinarily implausible circumstances, that would mean the infection took off in the US at least as early as it did in Wuhan. So the exponential growth in the two countries would have been roughly similar, and nobody would have paid attention to the Wuhan disaster because so many Americans would have already been dying.
This whole theory is so ridiculous and illogical, I strongly suspect it's just (very poor quality) PRC propaganda, being promoted for obvious political reasons.
Since Trump and his friends are denouncing China, the Chinese leaders wish to respond with a theory that makes America look bad and blames the Coronavirus outbreak on the US. But they're very reluctant to point to the pretty strong circumstantial evidence that the virus outbreak was a biowarfare attack on China (and Iran) by the Deep State Neocons. After all, that would be difficult to prove and also would be an act of war. Anyway, given the total incompetence of the US government, the Coronavirus is about to inflict enormous punishment upon the population and economy of the US, whether we were actually guilty or not.
So instead they concocted this ridiculous "Oops!" theory just so that they have something to say in response to Trump's ridiculous charges.
Now that's perfectly fine, and I understand what they're doing and why. But I'm not a PRC propagandist so I don't have to pretend that their theory makes any sense at all.@Ron UnzAnonymous  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 12:11 am GMT
As we know from China, Northern Italy, and most recently New York, Coronavirus is *extremely* contagious. In the absence of severe government restrictions, the number of infected individuals tends to double ever 3-5 days
As of the 5th March, where no stringent health measures had been implemented yet except in Asia, the number of infected people globally was around 100,000 and was doubling every 6 days. At the same time, and by implementing strict containment, China had managed to extend the doubling rate to two months .
Considering that the Jul 2019 lab breach of containment has happened in a unique location, involving limited personnel, and was found out, is it not possible that the US authorities had locally applied the same measures China did, almost quenching a nascent epidemic and postponing its outbreak?
America has a population of something like 330 million, and if so few Americans were infected in October 2019 that nobody here noticed, the likelihood that tiny handful would happen to include the ones visiting Wuhan is nil.
Just before major competitions, sports team gather for extensive training and "friendly" games; it is always the case. It is possible that one or two American individuals only were infected, then contaminated their colleagues during training just prior to the games, thus making the cluster that brought the virus to Wuhan only a little time before the games.
So instead they concocted this ridiculous "Oops!" theory just so that they have something to say in response to Trump's ridiculous charges.
President Trump's charges are indeed ridiculous: he pretends that his country is the only one on Earth not to have received the epidemic warnings issued by China, while all other nations have been applying more or less strict containment measures for months.
These assumptions are for an accidental contamination.@Ron UnzStoneman , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 12:58 am GMT
As we know from China, Northern Italy, and most recently New York, Coronavirus is *extremely* contagious. In the absence of severe government restrictions, the number of infected individuals tends to double ever 3-5 days, thereby increasing by a factor of something like 100-1000x per month. And it seems to kill at least 1% of the population, perhaps rising to 5% when the health system collapses under the strain of the 20% who require hospitalization
(Allow me to play Devil's Advocate):
There is also the possibility that the "doubling period" was not initially (in the early stages, in the U.S.) so short as every 5 or even 3 days when there were very few initial cases, or indeed, only ONE ("Patient Zero") initial case.
That is to say, unless and until a minimum critical mass of infected is reached, the rate of spread of Detrick-19 virus could be significantly slower. INITIALLY.
(A 5-day doubling period would be a rough compounded increase of 15% a day, while a 3-day doubling period would be a rough compounded increase of 26% a day -- these are obviously very fast).
What if, for reasons of the patterns and frequencies of travel and typical interaction and circulation of individuals in society (all the usual activities -- driving on the freeway, playing video games, fixing up his own house etc.), as long as only a few individuals were sick, the doubling period was as long as 30, even 45 days?
It is possible the infected "Patient Zero from Ft. Detrick" simply had little opportunity to interact with others for some time (for example, he might have been someone who spent time alone, liked to read, a bit of a shut-in, who knows?)
You start with only one person accidentally exposed and sick. It COULD theoretically have taken 2 weeks to a month to infect a second, and another 2 weeks/1 month for those 2 infected people to become 4 infected. And so forth.
UNTIL you hit say 100 or more people infected and interacting in society all at once, at which time an inflection point is reached, and the daily rate of increase trends sharply upward.
(Devil's Advocate mode off.)
IF, in fact, a critical mass of infected people need to be present for the Detrick-19 Virus to spread quickly, then, I have to admit, it does point rather heavily in the direction of a deliberate (vice accidental) effort to spread the virus in Wuhan, China and Qom, Iran -- in other words, NOT AN ACCIDENT, but a premeditated act of war by the United States against China and Iran.
To which reasonable conclusion, quite a few of our countrymen have come.The facts presented by Dr. Roberts have checked out. They provide an alternative theory for the origin of the SARS-2 Coronavirus. It is after all only a theory, same as the theory that it came from Wuhan bats. We'll probably never know unless everyone works together on the investigation. Even then, we won't be absolutely sure. While both sides like to say everything is on the table, cooperation apparently is not included. I think China is tired of getting insulted and attacked by morons, which is understandable. I myself do enjoy the freedom to lie and insult and be ignorant, and the Chinese will have to pry that away from my cold dead fingers.Godfree Roberts , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 1:03 am GMT
As for Ron's opinion on the contagious character of the current strains, we should remember that viruses mutate very frequently. Therefore the early Coronavirus strain that first infected humans may have survived in the hosts for long periods without causing harm or readily transmitted to another human. Eventually, a mutuation creates the protein spikes that lets the virus grab onto human cells (see linked scientific article below), especially bronchial and pulmonary epithelial cells. Then all hell breaks loose. I would like to make Dr. Roberts's theory a bit more complete by adding that the SARS-2 Coronavirus likely originated from a bat. It is known to be studied in Fort Detrick ostensibly for scientific purposes. On this, America is not alone. Many governments and research institutes know that this is coming and have been studying on ways to defend humans from the next outbreak. The only thing that seems a little suspicious is why Fort Detrick? Googling Fort Detrick and MK Ultra will give us some background.
In any case, something happened at the Fort Detrick lab that caused the CDC to shut it down last July. Humans may have been contaminated (it's possible but we won't know unless Fort Detrick work is declassified). Since the Coronavirus did not have that protein spike for attaching to human cells, the infected persons did not get sick, and there was minimal or no transmission. To the rest of the world, nothing happened. The next significant mutation may allow the virus to become transmitted to another human host, similar to how even today over eighty percent of the infected are asymptomatic or experience only slight flu symptoms. People would think that it's just a cold. The next big mutation probably occurred shortly before or after the GIs arrived at Wuhan. The protein spikes are now much better adapted to attaching to human pulmonary epithelial cells, which causes pneumonia and since there is no defence against this new virus, the result could be deadly. Subsequent mutations may have further adapted SAR-2 to human cells making the virus very contagious among humans. This is of course, still a theory, but hopefully answers Ron's concern that Dr. Roberts is a propagandist for the CCP. At the end of the day, we all believe what we want to believe. I believe I'll have a beer.
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-not-human-made-in-lab.html@Ron Unz Let's dispense with the vaping deaths and other tantalizing possibilities and simplify the hypothesis thus:Kratoklastes , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 2:20 am GMT
1. Patient Zero, an infected US serviceman*, went to Wuhan with the US Military Games team.
2. He infected four of his teammates and all five were hospitalized in Wuhan with Covid-19. If that is the case then the Chinese have their medical records. If Mike Pompeo is begging it's because he has no alternative.
3. The Army should have quarantined the team ** after they returned to the US on December 1, so our outbreak may have started late December, if other returned team members tested positive.
4. A Chinese arrived from Wuhan Jan. 19 and asked to be tested for the coronavirus China had identified. He tested positive and our media call him 'Patient Zero' but..
5. We don't know when our domestic outbreak started because the CDC discouraged testing from January until early March despite having received the WHO's Coronavirus warning January 1.
5. CDC Director Robert Redfield recently admitted that some deaths previously attributed to 'flu have been reclassified as Covid-19 after post-mortem DNA testing. I assume that at least one of those patients died in December since Dr. Redfield refused to reveal their dates.
6. Right now the CDC is still refusing to share its data with the WHO or identify Patient Zero ** to the American public -- unprecedented behavior during a pandemic.
*It doesn't materially matter if he was infected while training near Ft. Detrick but, if he was, it helps explain the coverup.
** Did some team members go on leave to Italy after the Games? USMAC makes that easy.
*** The significance of finding Patient Zero is to determine the time of initial infection and then estimate the scope of transmission and epidemic scale. The second purpose is to find the intermediate host. If Patient Zero really is our hypothetical US serviceman and the CDC is lying about him, then Patient Zero assumes political significance, too.@Ron UnzErratum , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 2:24 am GMT
In the absence of severe government restrictions, the number of infected individuals tends to double ever 3-5 days, thereby increasing by a factor of something like 100-1000x per month.
That's a misconception, Mr Unz.
You've failed to notice Pynchon's 3rd Proverb for Paranoids :
If they can get you asking the wrong questions, they don't have to worry about answers .
Everybody's been encouraged to watch the wrong card -- namely, 'confirmed cases ' -- which is the number of people who have returned a positive test (on a test which is worse than a coin toss, as Zhuang et al have recently shown).
The obvious way to have low numbers of "confirmed cases", is to administer very few tests .
Zero tests = zero confirmed cases regardless of what the actual number of infected is, or its rate of growth. That shows the weakness of using 'confirmed cases' as a basis for spread.
'Confirmed cases' is a low-information quantity, and I think it was chosen deliberately .
'Not testing' is what the US did -- it was administering 1 test per million population as recently as early March.
It's obvious that failing (or refusing) to test, doesn't stop the virus from spreading: the rate at which it actually spreads is independent of the rate at which tests are conducted.
So while people weren't being tested, the virus was doing what it does -- at whatever rate it can achieve 'in the wild'.
If Mr Roberts' claims are correct and this particular coronavirus existed in a human-transmissible form as early as last September, then by March there will already have been a large 'stock' of infected people in the US and elsewhere, all of whom were untested. 5 months (near enough) of untrammeled spread at whatever rate this things spreads at (left for below), versus 2 months or so.
Since this was -- as the quote from Fauci indicates -- a reasonably bad flu season, there will have been tens of thousands of people with a range of 'flu like symptoms from October onwards. If Mr Roberts' information is correct, some proportion of those will have been undetected coronavirus (they could never be 'confirmed cases' because nobody was being tested ).
Those among the ill who were otherwise healthy, would have simply gotten over it (with the worst cases requiring time off work and bed rest). Before and after they would have simply gone about their business -- infecting others.
By the time testing was being implemented, there's a very high likelihood that a very large proportion of them were entirely virus-free -- making them undetected, undetectable , resolved cases. Contact tracking proceeding backwards from people who contracted coronavirus from them, would draw a blank (especially if the original carrier's specific case had no symptoms).
Depending on the actual start date (September 2019 vs January 2020), there are 2-6 months' worth of infected that are sitting there untested at the time that testing begins.
Some of these people will be in cohorts timed to have symptoms by March; some of them will have become very ill. These -- and people in their downstream orbit -- are the first cohort that was tested.
And of course there are others downstream from the Sep-Mar 'resolved' cases; some of those having low- or no-symptoms, going about their daily lives, being undetected infectious.
OK, so now we have some starting stock of infected and resolved as at the start of testing, and it's a much bigger number than 1 (i.e., the starting value for the #ZOMFG!!_exponential curve).
Now start testing.
People who were infected weeks ago by a slow-spreading virus, start getting detected as new 'confirmed cases'.
Ramp up testing #ZOMFG!!_exponentially!!! (which is roughly what has happened), and the 'confirmed case' numbers will also ramp up #ZOMFG!!_exponentially!!! .
Mathematically, that could just mean that there is a constant proportion of the population who is infected.
If the virus spread was accelerating , positive tests as a proportion of total tests would slope upwards .
There's no evidence of that, either cross-sectionally (i.e., across countries with different test numbers) or internally (as test counts increase in a given country).
The exact opposite is happening -- as more testing is happening, the ratio of confirmed cases to total tests is declining .
The rate of growth of 'confirmed cases' won't slow until much later, because of the existing 'stock' of infected.
The stock of infected on the day that 'confirmed case ' #1 is detected , was absolutely, certainly, emphatically, irrefutably not 1 .
Later, the downside analogies of same phenomena will also give the false impression that control measures having an effect.
This will give charlatans the bonus of being able to applaud each other and declare themselves and their flailings as the sine qua non of victory (the " Omaha Beach Effect ').
With a full-court media press behind them (because journalists are innumerate and gullible) this will, they hope, infect the minds of the Mass Man with the worst possible virus: the one that makes people believe that politicians and their apparatchiks are competent.
Reference (on the terrible false-positive problem for the current test)
Zhuang et al (2020), " Potential false-positive rate among the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' in close contacts of COVID-19 patients " (link is to English abstract)In trying to debunk the hypothesis that COVID-19 was circulating before Q4, Unz assumes that the virus has a single immutable R0. That assumption does not hold if the virus is circulating in a new species for the first time. As old micro points out, a novel virus gains virulence as it adapts to its new host organism. And it did in fact mutate in the US, into four or five distinct strains. So you can't just extrapolate and compare. Let's not get like Caitlin Johnstone's Republican RPCs and call unwelcome notions Chinese.occupatio , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 2:37 am GMT
Also, don't forget, there were multiple introductions. There is no one patient zero. Contagion by multiple introductions is prima facie biological warfare.@Stoneman Godfree Roberts,Sasha , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 2:51 am GMT
The interview with Italy's Dr. Remuzzi has been truncated in English-language media. He actually says the virus outbreaks were observed by doctors as early as OCTOBER, and not just November as reported.
Interview, relevant part at 4:19 mark:
A reporter asks Dr. Remuzzi about virus cases from Fall of 2019. Below is a translation:
Dr. Remuzzi (at 4:19): "It is very true. Do you know what happened? Certain family doctors, who have the best on the ground information, at least the most attentive ones, have told me recently that they were seeing truly grave cases of pneumonia, which we had never seen before. These pneumonia cases had nothing to do with typical flu pneumonia, they were interstitial pneumonias, they had to do CT, radiography, [to diagnose it], and this was happening in October, November, December. So this virus has been around a long time."
This translation is from comment #111: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2020/03/the-moa-week-in-review-open-thread-2020-22/comments/page/2/#comments
So, in summary, Dr. Remuzzi not only says the cases occurred in October, but that multiple "family doctors, who have the best on-the-ground information" have observed the strange pneumonias at that time as well, and says explicitly that "this virus has been around a long time."@anon There was a huge panic over "vaping" pneumonia here in Ottawa, Canada last August. I developed pneumonia at that exact same time (I don't vape).I know exactly how and when I got it too -- oral congress with a peeler's not-so-private parts very late in her shift. I'm not a freaking coincidence theorist, and can certainly do rudimentary arithmetic. Then, the clusters of "vaping illness" around Ft. Detrick at the VERY SAME TIME (youtube that) Anyone still thinking this is a pangolin plague isn't bat-soup crazy (that's far too generous an assessment) -- they're a brain-dead cretin that is destined to die of terminal stupidity (said the idiot pig!).anonimo11 , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 3:11 am GMT@Ron Unz Your comment, while reasonable, could be proven wrong if the virus, due to heat, humidity, or vitamin D level of the population, is suppressed in late summer. Then the virus starts proliferating only in the Fall. Assuming it is vitamin D, the half life of the vitamin in the human body depends on diet (can be very long), but for most people it is of order a few weeks.Godfree Roberts , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 3:26 am GMT
Lombardy is extremely foggy in Fall, and they had a hospital crisis already in Dec. 2019, due to too many patients and not enough respirators. The interview with Prof. Remuzzi provides hard data. People have highest vit. D levels in late summer, and lowest right now (in the N. Hemisphere). This hypothesis would also explain the extremely low numbers in tropical countries (they typically do not get the flu either).
If my point is correct, this epidemics should solve itself in early summer. Then you would have a consistent explanation for all facts@occupatio Thank you.anonimo11 , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 3:35 am GMT
Surely someone has compared the Italian strain to the Chinese and the American?@occupatio Thanks for advertising my work Occupatio. Since I did that translation a bit on the fly I want to make some small corrections, highlighted in caps.Ron Unz , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 4:09 am GMT
It is very true. Do you know what happened? Certain family doctors, who have the best ANTENNAS IN THE TERRITORY, at least the most ABLE AND attentive ones, have told me recently that they were seeing grave cases of pneumonia, which we had never seen THE OTHER YEARS. These pneumonia cases had nothing to do with typical flu pneumonia, they were interstitial pneumonias, they had to do CT, radiography, [to diagnose it], and this was SEEN in October, November, December. So this virus has been CIRCULATING a long time."@clipTor597 , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 4:16 am GMT
Your analysis assumes this specific virus is not a bioweapon The (possible) race targeting nature of the bioweapon would help partly explain why the virus had a much weaker effect in America despite being leaked here months earlier.
No. Back a month or two ago, I was indeed quite suspicious that the Coronavirus might be a bioweapon racially-targeting East Asians, and we ran several articles by Lance Welton arguing that case. But the facts proved otherwise, including the very rapid spread and growing death toll in Italy and most recently in New York. Over the next few months, I fear that hundreds of thousands of Americans may die, and the overwhelming majority are likely to be Caucasian.@Ron Unz Ron,Ron Unz , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 4:16 am GMT
I think that can best be explained by the different types of Corona Virus strains. The S Type is a more mild form of the disease.
Interestingly enough, vaping increases your chance of becoming severe 14 times.
So the mild strain could have been in circulation causing a moderately increased death rate that many have observed this flu season with certain spikes of deaths due people vaping.
The author of a paper on Italy's coronavirus crisis says general practitioners remember seeing strange pneumonia cases in December -- even November -- meaning the virus was circulating in parts of Italy before doctors were aware of the outbreak in China. https://t.co/ngJ92m8Gaa
-- NPR (@NPR) March 20, 2020
There are many anecdotal accounts of people suspecting Corona Virus last year in the above tweet.
What happened in China, Italy, and Iran I believe was the result of the more virulent L strain.
The above link goes over the concept of super spreaders. These were people that led to explosive outbreaks that are more characteristic of the parabolic pandemic you describe.
I believe that the US may have seeded the S strain in America first in order to try and increase herd immunity to the public without needing vaccinations.
Once the S strain was seeded in America, the L strain was released in China and Iran. It spread to S. Korea and Italy.@AnonymousRon Unz , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 4:41 am GMT
This is why Harvard chemistry chair Prof. Charles Lieber got rolled up with trumped up charges when this outbreak hit the news.
Yes, I've repeatedly pointed to the *extremely* suspicious timing of Lieber's arrest:
https://www.unz.com/article/how-to-yellow-cake-a-tragedy/#comment-3715020@Godfree RobertsRon Unz , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 4:56 am GMT
1. Patient Zero, an infected US serviceman*, went to Wuhan with the US Military Games team.
Under your reconstruction, let's ask ourselves how many Americans were infected when that alleged serviceman carried the Coronavirus to Wuhan in October. Maybe he was the only infected individual in America and by purest chance, he happened to take the virus to China, launch the disease there, then avoid infecting any other American when he returned home. But this is *exceptionally* implausible.
The other possibility is that large numbers of Americans were already infected in October, and one or more of them happened to go to China. But if that were true, there would have been a massive outbreak in the US even before the one in China, so the theory makes absolutely no sense.
So maybe the virus was harmless in the US or not easily contagious. But when it got to China, it suddenly decided to randomly mutate into the extremely contagious and deadly form we now have. But that's also *exceptionally* implausible.
I've never been particularly impressed with PRC propaganda, but this propaganda story is so ridiculously bad and implausible I can't see how even a child could believe it.@Tor597jjc , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 5:48 am GMT
I believe that the US may have seeded the S strain in America first in order to try and increase herd immunity to the public without needing vaccinations.
Once the S strain was seeded in America, the L strain was released in China and Iran. It spread to S. Korea and Italy.
Well, my impression is that the existence of this sharp S strain/L strain difference is still under dispute. But leaving that aside, your theory is that the Deep State Neocons (or whomever) deliberately attacked China and Iran with the deadly form of the Coronavirus, which seems a perfectly plausible hypothesis to me.
But I'm extremely skeptical that they had earlier released a different form of Coronavirus to spread around the US to protect us from the other form. Anyway, if that was their "clever plan," it clearly didn't work, and hundreds of thousands of Americans may soon pay with their lives for such total incompetence.
Since your theory relies upon the total incompetence of the purported biowarfare attackers, it's really pretty similar to the one I've been suggesting.The military games thesis offers two pieces of information -- five US team members hospitalized and forty-two hotel employees first infectious cluster -- which should be relatively easy to ascertain independently. The thesis is certainly viable if both can be confirmed.Godfree Roberts , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 6:57 am GMT@Ron Unz I'm a minimalist.Godfree Roberts , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:05 am GMT
I'll settle for one of 300 guys training near Ft. Detrick getting infected on the last day of training. Pure bad luck but plausible enough to get us to where we are today and to explain our government's utterly weird, paranoid behavior -- a factor which must be explained, too.
Incidentally, Ft. Detrick developed the bioweapons the US used on China in 1951. Ah, those were good times!
I have always been impressed by how well the PRC's words match their deeds.
Of course, if you think that the words our media put into their government's mouth (when, for example, summarizing a speech) match what they actually said then of course you won't be impressed.
But if you compare the official translations -- even their courts translate important decisions now -- it's hard to fault them.
They've made 150 major promises in the past 70 years and kept all of them -- and that's why they are where they are today.@Iris Yikes!utu , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:10 am GMT
My rejoinder is, they weren't looking. The CDC doesn't go looking for trouble. It waits for trouble to come to it. It has become entirely passive.You wrote:occupatio , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:31 am GMT
"Five of the US troops developed a fever on Oct. 25 and were taken to an infectious-diseases hospital for treatment."
Why did Chinese paper on Feb 24 Global Time write this:
Five foreign athletes from military world games in Wuhan infected with malaria, not COVID-19 in October 2019: hospital head
and the article does not imply nationality of athletes.@Ron Unzutu , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 8:37 am GMT
Of course it's possible that an outbreak occurred in the US in October or earlier. If that happened, it's not that no one noticed but that these cases were miscategorized as influenza or other respiratory problems. In other words, COVID-19 doesn't seem to exist until you can identify it, and if there is no testing for it, then it is invisible to the CDC.
This issue has already been addressed in a congressional hearing, in which the CDC admitted that COVID-19 might have been among the deaths categorized as influenza last year. The CDC doesn't know because they never tested for it. (And they don't want to go back to test the earlier cases either.)
We are talking about tens of thousands of influenza and pneumonia deaths in the recent season, according to the CDC. It is easy for an early-stage, new epidemic to 'hide' in these statistics. The US system is first of all unsuitable for finding the new virus, and secondly, as is shown by the US govt suppression of investigative testing early this year in Washington state, the CDC does not actually want to know how early COVID-19 was present on American soil. I'm referring to the NYT story, in which the CDC shut down Dr. Chu's investigation of Washington state testing for COVID-19, after she independently found a patient with COVID-19 who had not traveled, and had no known contact with those exposed to COVID-19.According to Godfree Roberts's Chinese counter-narrative America was infected before China and apparently life went on in America w/o anybody noticing. The epidemic grew exponentially and still nobody noticed. There was no Wuhan in America. So it must be true that the covid-19 is just like a flu. Most get it, some feel under the weather and few old people die. It happens every year. But apparently not to Chinese who created a crisis out of nothing by getting hysterical about 3,200 people dying in Hubei province in 3 months, a province of 58 millions where every month 34,000 people die on average. If Chinese did not overreact there would be no crisis and we all would be OK. Did I get it right? Is this Godfree Roberts's theory in a nutshell?Tor597 , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 9:14 am GMT@Ron Unz I pretty much agree with everything you said.Prajna , says: Website Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 10:36 am GMT
No matter which view point you take, it is hard to create a unifying theory of anything right now since there is still a lot we don't know yet.
The main thing that bothers me is why was China, Italy, and Iran hit so hard. I no longer think it was a racially targetted weapon but something has to account for the difference in intensity.
There are many countries that are pretty much doing nothing and the severity of their outbreak is mild to moderate. Meanwhile the effects on Italy, China, and Iran were truly devastating.
It was speculated that Chinese smoking was what made their outbreak so bad, but over time that just seems like a minor contributing factor. So what was the main driver that made the outbreak so bad then?
There being S and L variants with different virulence makes the most sense to me but there are probably other scenarios that make sense too.
You could take the same virus that is going around everywhere, and then enhance it in a test tube to make it easier to infect people, then release it in countries you want to target.
This is kind of like how plants are fed fertilizers. You can plant the same species of tree all over the world. But if you fertilize the trees in Italy, China, and Iran what would happen?Maybe a little reflection on quite how nuts some of these microbiology experiments are might assist in developing insights:glib , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 1:30 pm GMT
Specifically, 2 to 4 plasmids are used as the vectors, a strategy that aims to minimize viral gene recombination and thereby reduce the possibility of reversion to the WT [wild type] virus
As HIV is the causative agent of AIDS, which could raise some safety concerns, some investigators employed SIV [simian imunodeficiency virus] vectors in the development of similar 3‐plasmid systems
Etc@occupatio Also, same link, see the #98 comment by Lysias, a regular there, who lost his brother to pneumonia in December. Yes, he lived near Fort Detrick.Realist , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 1:36 pm GMT@Ron Unz Or maybe C0vid-19 was misdiagnosed in the USanonymous  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 1:42 pm GMT@Godfree Roberts I appreciate your bringing specific, contestable assertions into this discussion. Uncle Sam, sadly, is quite capable and willing to act as you suspect. People like Mr. Pompeo should be held to account, something that the MSM in this country will not do.glib , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 1:46 pm GMT
But your schoolgirl crush on the rulers of China distracts from and undermines your reportage.
Please stick to matters of fact.@Ron Unz If you have trouble believing that the epidemic could not propagate in early Fall, but it is propagating now, you will also have trouble believing in mortality by monthAnonymous  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 1:55 pm GMT
Obviously, if the probability of dying is flat, which seems to be your assumption, then every month has the same mortality. But that is not the case, and yes, the reason for the modulation in mortality is flu and other viruses, nearly absent when vit. D status is sufficient. This is why these epidemics are strictly in winter.
The graph below shows that flu activity is 20 times higher in February compared to October. Why do you expect CV (itself a 1/7 of the flu) to behave differently? Do you really expect an epidemic to develop equally if R0 is 0.1, or 2?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/season/flu-season.htm@Godfree RobertsRon Unz , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 2:21 pm GMT
If it started October 12 in the US it had time to incubate, spread to Lombardy, and infect Wuhan hotel workers on October 27, during the Military Games (i.e., almost November).
It killed 3200 there and they noticed and got on it.
We didn't notice when it killed 3200 here because we forbade testing until early March
This is very plausible but I think it's important to note that we can't use just arithmetics to find out initial starting points for any viral outbreak. It can only be done through on the ground interviews, testing and detective work. In the beginning, when the numbers are tiny, the rate of infections will completely depend, and vary wildly, on the actual infected individuals and their behaviour/circumstances. Just that first guy can infect 20 people or one (technically none, but that would end it) which would almost certainly affect the timing by months.
So, even if we, as an example, test everyone in a city and find a single cluster with 100 infected persons, the patient zero for that area could have arrived a month ago or six months ago. We simply won't know until we do the legwork.Actually, I think the Coronavirus outbreak together with this article effectively illustrate the competing strengths and weaknesses of China and the US.glib , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 2:24 pm GMT
China is generally run on meritocratic grounds by trained engineers and other skilled professionals. So when an unprecedented viral epidemic erupted out of nowhere just before Lunar New Year, they moved with remarkable speed and determination to take all steps necessary to avert a disaster, and managed to do so, resulting in only relatively minor damage to their economy and a few thousand deaths. But the quality of their government propaganda is terrible, so they came out with a ridiculous and logically-contradictory story about the Coronavirus outbreak, as presented above.
Meanwhile, America has spent decades being run by its Ministry of Propaganda, whose highly-skilled professionals believe that they can create Reality using words and pictures. I think it's pretty clear that these Deep State Neocons were responsible for promoting the various "China Done It!" stories about the Coronavirus that started in January, quite possibly as a cover for what was actually their own biowarfare attack against China (and Iran). Their propaganda is also highly implausible when you carefully consider it, but still vastly superior to the totally lame PRC propaganda.
However, except for its excellent propaganda, the American government spent months doing nothing about the Coronavirus, being totally lazy and incompetent in non-propaganda matters. And to the horror and dismay of our leaders, the Coronavirus just ignores their propaganda, regardless of its outstanding quality.
As a result, the rate of infection and death in the US, especially New York, has grown exponentially, and hundreds of thousands or even millions of Americans may die over the next few months, while our national economy has been wrecked.
Everything is a trade-off, and countries that heavily invest in their technocratic management naturally are weaker in their propaganda, and vice-versa. So the rest of the world will have to decide whether the Chinese or the American approach turned out to be more successful.@utuAnonymous  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 2:34 pm GMT
The epidemic grew exponentially and still nobody noticed.
Utu, there is a big difference between a flu epidemic propagating in Fall and propagating in winter. Specifically, the exponential curve changes dramatically. See my other post. Also it is strictly not true that nobody noticed. In Northern Italy a bunch of doctors noticed.@Ron Unz Let us postulate that the initial release was accidental, and that the subsequent vectoring of the Detrick-19 Virus to China from the United States was likewise accidental.Anonymous  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 3:34 pm GMT
How might all this have come about?:
Maybe he was the only infected individual in America and by purest chance, he happened to take the virus to China, launch the disease there, then avoid infecting any other American when he returned home. But this is *exceptionally* implausible.
We are dealing with a much smaller population set than the American people. We are talking only of the fraction of our military who might have been infected with an earlier variant of Detrick-19/"America-virus". The percentage of our military that was infected would be far higher than the infected in the general population -- not only is the base set much smaller, but the occupations involved would be more exposed to any military pathogens around (simply being in and around bases).
Consider also that, since the military sent 300 service members from all across our military to compete in the World Military Games, the chances of ONE (1) of them being one of the undocumented infected persons who got it around the Fort Detrick or Fort Belvoir area, go up.
So maybe the virus was harmless in the US or not easily contagious. But when it got to China, it suddenly decided to randomly mutate into the extremely contagious and deadly form we now have. But that's also *exceptionally* implausible
As to the virus failing to raise alarms within the United States in spite of circulating since perhaps early October, it is very plausible that the optimal mass of asymptomatic carriers was not achieved in the United States, or (far more likely) was buried in the statistics of the known, "boring" disease of "Flu".
I.E. the American health system was not paranoid about anything SARS-like, so we weren't looking.
The obverse was probably true in Wuhan. It did achieve the optimal density of infected in and around the games venues, the hotels, the restaurants and the market place, AND the Chinese, rightly paranoid about a SARS repeat, were alert to Detrick-19/Corona-virus.
A cluster was subsequently reported to the WHO by the Wuhan medical authorities, and here we are. ( It seems that China, from that start, strongly suspected a deliberate Biological Warfare attack, but could not YET prove it, and so remained silent. )
This is to try to exonerate our country from the charge of military aggression and attempted genocide, and to lower the bar to gross incompetence and widespread and willful lying and cover-up, ignoring the domestic danger to protect the military, and leveling malicious accusations against another country, all of the preceding costing a huge number of innocent lives around the world.
It's simply more comforting for us to think that we screwed up, then covered it up, disregarded the grave danger to our own people, and spewed lies about another country, than to admit that maybe we did it all deliberately.@utuanonymous  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 4:13 pm GMT
According to Godfree Roberts's Chinese counter-narrative America was infected before China and apparently life went on in America w/o anybody noticing. The epidemic grew exponentially and still nobody noticed.
It is possible. Please see my previous comment.
A viral outbreak can reach its first milestone -- 100 infected -- in any number of months so we shouldn't be extrapolating current rates (even if they were reliable) to pinpoint the initial timing. It's a completely useless approach for that purpose. Also, the numbers will almost always be fairly small and easy to overlook in the first couple of months.
It happens every year. But apparently not to Chinese who created a crisis out of nothing by getting hysterical about 3,200 people dying in Hubei province in 3 months, a province of 58 millions where every month 34,000 people die on average.
The virus has infected only a super tiny fraction of the world's population so far. If we abandon "hysterics" and allow it to infect 80+% of us in a relatively short amount of time, the numbers of infected would explode by orders of magnitude and the mortality rate would probably surpass the Italian one. Even now, some countries are lacking proper facilities to cope so we'd end up burying hundreds of millions.
Since we're talking about exponential growth, the " rice and chessboard " story is instructive. One infected rice grain only managed to produce 128 infected grains at the end of the first row on the chessboard but more than 8 billion near the beginning of the fifth one.anonymous  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 4:37 pm GMT
The world suspected that Covid-19 was circulating outside China last year
I ran into a person I know recently here in Chicago and he stated he had the flu in Jan and that it lasted for three weeks, two of them being very bad. I sort of wondered what sort of flu he could have had that would be so severe in an otherwise healthy person. They just diagnose flu through symptoms and that's been it up to now. Maybe this thing has been circulating for a while without being specifically identified. American troops spread the "Spanish Flu" then blamed the Spanish, which gave it its nickname.@Anonymous Good comment. But why do you say "we"?Commentator Mike , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 4:44 pm GMT
Try to forego this Pat Buchananesque pronoun propaganda that conflates the American people with those creatures that rule us and as much of the world as they can.@utu utu,jalon , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 5:07 pm GMT
To distract you back to that Petri dish the Diamond Princess .
2154 of the 3711 people on board the Diamond Princess were over 60 years of age; the crew numbered 1045, and these would tend to be younger and healthier so even if some were infected they should have recovered. What I find hard to believe is that all those who died, died of Covid-19 and not of any other ailments, which considering the age and probably ill health of many of these passengers seems rather odd -- not even due to complications arising from the seasonal flu. You can find the detailed age breakdown at:
It would be useful to know what was the prevalence of the seasonal flu among these passengers, but were they tested for this at all? So they all got the coronavirus and nobody got the flu, or so it seems? For the sake of completeness of these studies, one would expect that they should also be testing for seasonal flu in parallel. If you come across any data for these flu tests for those on board the Diamond Princess , or elsewhere, post it. Obviously if a passenger tested positive for both the seasonal flu and Covid-19, and then died, they'd have a problem to decide which of these was the cause of death. Since we know that the seasonal flu kills many of these elderly and sick, shouldn't the experts have also investigated the incidence, prevalence, and mortality due to seasonal flu among the passengers? And likewise in the general population.@Ron Unz If all these assertions are true, it would be important to find out what happened to those 5 military persons AFTER they went back to the US.utu , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 5:33 pm GMT
Are they still alive?
How were they transported back to the US, separately or along with all other military games personnel ?
Other pertinent questions:
how were they treated by the infectious disease place, what kind of medication were they given? what reasons they gave for their illness? did they claim malaria, because malaria drug hydroxylchloroquine has been shown have some effectiveness (ie this demonstrate fore knowledge).
As to why it did not spread wildly in US before this:
a. this is a planned attack by rogue group, perhaps with permission from just one or two, as to who, I would have to pick the fat guy with name started with a P . That's why he has been "relatively" quiet since this virus event; before he has been basically issuing threats or bribes almost every day on Iran, China, Russia, Syria almost daily;
b. it did not infect others because they only started doing it in Wuhan, and got themselves infected as well
c. it's possible after they left, they were quarantined, or perhaps victims of dead men tell no tales
Note that the theory of "accident" does not make as much sense, as it would suggest a wider earlier epidemic in the US.
The Chinese are trying to give the US a way out by giving some stupid "accidental" excuses, because to say that it's a deliberate attack would require (demanded by her citizens) a war-like response.
They don't like war, really, incase there are still idiots rainwashed with the "Chinese aggression to take over the world" type mentality reading this.@AnonymousPhilip Owen , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 5:43 pm GMT
A viral outbreak can reach its first milestone -- 100 infected -- in any number of months
Not any number of months. There are limits to how slow the lingering process that you postulate can be. All carriers would have to exhibit exceptional meandering to avoid infecting too many subjects. So the probability of it gets lower and lower as you need to postulate longer times to get from 1 to 100 cases.
Keep in mind that Godfree Roberts postulates that infection in the US began before China. China on Jan 22 had 571 case and on Feb 1 14,308 cases while the US on March 8 had 541 cases and it reached 13,789 cases on March 19. So US is about 45 days behind China. Clearly this is not congruent with Godfree's hypothesis.
I would go even further and claim that the hypothesis that the infection in China began on October 27, 2019 during the Military Games might be a stretch. It implies that it took 87 days to get to 571 on Jan 22 which is about 10 day doubling time.
Fortunately for Godfree China is most likely lying and the true count case on Jan 22 was probably higher. Unfortunately for Godfree he is trapped because he is psychologically incapable to openly question Chinese figures.@Ron Unz Wrong!Philip Owen , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 5:52 pm GMT
We know from the Diamond Princess and now the Costa Luminosa that SARS-CoV-2 is not extremely contagious. 17% of the people on the DP were infected, half without symptoms (perhaps even false positives-the jury is out). 52 from 3711 (1.4 %) became critically ill or died. On the CL 74 (known to be an overcount, in a shared cabin both were counted as critical) from 1471 (5% or less) became critically ill or died according to current information. So, in cases of 100% population exposure, or as close as it will be in this world we see 1 to 5% critically ill (assuming a consistent definition of critically ill). They could easily be lost in the everyday winter flu statistics in the US. The deaths from vaping are a key clue.@Tor597 Could be TB 60 years ago lingering in the older population.utu , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:08 pm GMT@Philip Owen "not extremely contagious" -- You are making a wrong conclusion. Passengers on Diamond Princess were isolated in their cabins. Passengers who tested positive were taken out of the ship to military hospital in Japan. Diamond Princess was not a peri dish! The epidemic was arrested there and stopped.utu , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:19 pm GMT
" passengers who tested positive [ ] have been transferred to hospitals "
"For those left on board, there is nothing to do but sit in their cabins, wait for meals to be delivered, watch television or choose from a limited selection of movies on demand. Those lucky enough to have a balcony can at least sit in the sun, look at the ocean and talk to their neighbors."@Commentator Mike The most interesting part of the paper you linked (thanks) is the fact that it took TEN authors plus the whole "CMMID COVID-19 working group" to estimate ONE number, the CFR from SEVEN cases of deaths among passengers of Diamond Princess. And the result is 1.1% (95% CI: 0.3 -- 2.4%). What a waste.Priss Factor , says: Website Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:20 pm GMT@clipvot tak , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:21 pm GMT
Your analysis assumes this specific virus is not a bioweapon.
It was most likely bat soup and other crazy food.
But if it was a bio-weapon, it was likely spread by rogue elements, not by official state policy. I can't imagine the government deciding to spread this all around to tank the economy in China and US."The world is very good at tracing Coronaviruses back through their generations and China has done so and now it seems the shit is about to hit the fan."vot tak , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:31 pm GMT
From the info Roberts has gathered here, the Chinese have traced the source of the virus. I sort of thought they had when Chinese officials began publicly talking about the usa being the likely source.
The israeloamericans thought they would pull another one, but instead China defeated them quite spectacularly. No doubt the israeloamericans thought they would bring China down, while using the large size of their own interrelated economies to weather the storm and come out on top. Not the first time they, the western capitalist oligarchy, tried this gambit, btw.
China is already in recovery, while the israeloamerican colonies are still far from recovery. This means China will be on the rise while israeloamerica is still in descent. There is a term for this in tennis, it's called:
Game, set and match.
And trump is now toast, BTW.@Priss Factor This is called damage control.vot tak , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 7:46 pm GMT@Ron Unz "So maybe the virus was harmless in the US or not easily contagious."Philip Owen , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 8:36 pm GMT
Yes, maybe the virus was engineered to affect a specific Asian genetic group harshly (or developed this aspect naturally), and is mostly like a normal flu to others.@utu There was no quarantine for two weeks. The centre of infection was the kitchen which served both passengers and crew.Iris , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 8:48 pm GMT@AnonymousAnon  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 9:03 pm GMT
The virus has infected only a super tiny fraction of the world's population so far. If we abandon "hysterics" and allow it to infect 80+% of us in a relatively short amount of time, the numbers of infected would explode by orders of magnitude
It would be good to clarify what "hysterics" are actually about.
In the lowly world of "inferior" beings (not Israel or the US, obviously), countries abide by the International Health Regulations, which oblige them not only to disclose any potential epidemic that could harm populations and Health Systems to the WHO, but also to help other countries with knowledge and means.
The death rate of Covid-19 does not matter : by definition, it is an unknown parameter anyway in the case of a new pandemic appearing. "Inferior" countries, such as the PRC, treat the patients first and will calculate death rates later. It is not possible at this stage to scientifically calculate the Covid-19 death rate: there is not enough data, not enough distance, and not enough specific information by risk classes anyway (age, pre-existing conditions, level of exposure).
Only some non-scientific, anecdotal, common-sense information is available at this stage:
-- the coarse global "death rate" stands at around 5%
-- the Covid-19 syndrome kills essentially the elderly, those with pre-existing health condition, and health personnel . It is therefore an unacceptable threat to National Health Systems.
-- In a developed country, it seems to increase standard mortality rate by about 10 % per day (France: 1900 instead of 1700 per day)
-- It requires to mobilise a large number of intensive care units, which are already long past their capacity in Italy, and nearing the end of their capability in France. Germany has just offered to take on French patients from the badly hit Alsace epidemic centre.
-- As a matter of comparison, the epidemiological risk link of AIDS is incomparably lower (only 40 million people infected after 4 decades); it still remains a WHO priority.
-- Covid-19 kills care personnel exposed to it: 4 French doctors have died so far.
In an uncertain situation with no distance, the attitude towards Covid-19 was likely to be different, depending on the culture of the country:
-- Italy, France, Germany, Spain Iran, China being relatively equalitarian countries, not likely to let their elderly go before their time, they declared national emergency.
-- The UK is a class society, but where the rule of law is strong and people heavily-taxed. Malthusian Boris Johnson would have loved to have his way and let "herd immunity" do its job of culling the elderly, but he needs to think of future elections. So, he followed suit with fellow European countries.
The US, although the Nr 1 global economy, has done none of the above. Does stating this evidence make one a PRC sycophant?" Coronavirus: 'strange pneumonia' seen in Lombardy in November, leading Italian doctor saysutu , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 9:54 pm GMT
Virus was circulating 'before we were aware of the outbreak in China', says Giuseppe Remuzzi, director of the Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research"
A "strange pneumonia" was circulating in northern Italy
as long ago as November, weeks before doctors were made aware of the novel coronavirus outbreak
in China, one of the European country's leading medical experts said this week.
"They [general practitioners] remember having seen very strange pneumonia, very severe, particularly in old people in December and even November," Giuseppe Remuzzi, the director of the Mario Negri Institute for Pharmacological Research in Milan, said in an interview with the National Public Radio of the United States.
"This means that the virus was circulating, at least in [the northern region of] Lombardy and before we were aware of this outbreak occurring in China."@Philip Owen Are you like CanSpeccy who often unknowingly argues against his original argument?d dan , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 10:03 pm GMT@Ron Unz This is a rare case where I disagree with Ron Unz. I believe the accidental release theory put forward by Godfree is not a ridiculous story promoted by PRC. It is a reasonable possibility independently arrived by a number of fair minded people too. Considering the following reasons / points:MarkU , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 11:15 pm GMT
1. The bioweapon attack and the accidental release theories are not mutually exclusive. It is possible to have both. Further, the order can't be determined at the moment. There could be a bioweapon attack followed by accidental release, or the reverse order.
2. Cases of unexplained source of infection is sufficient to throw more weight to the accidental release theory over the bioweapon theory. And we know there are plenty of (early) cases where the sources can NOT be traced to China/Iran/Italy/whatever possible target of bioweapon attack.
3. Although Fort Detrick was close in August, it does not followed the leak happened around that time. It could be later (or earlier).
4. The accidental release could be transmitted to Wuhan by US military personnel, or it could be transmitted by other innocent visitors.
5. The assumption of Covid-19 being extremely infectious is not necessarily valid. The assumption is based on confirmed test cases in various countries. We know most countries, including China, started the testing late. So many of the test case increases were due to "pent-up" cases. So it exaggerates the rate of increases.
6. Wuhan and several hotspots are densely populated. So US rate of infection was likely lower. Further the weather, temperature, human travel pattern may affect the rate too, most pointing to lower US rate than China's.
The accidental release theory is also consistent with your view of crazy, lazy and incompetent government. It also does not require the assumption of ill-intent (although this last one is not hard to find).@Stoneman If the original form of the virus could not attach to human cells, then it would need a different host in order to replicate and that host would have to have contact with humans in order to pass it on. If it can't replicate, then it can't mutate. So what was its host in the meantime?Godfree Roberts , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 11:44 pm GMT@utu Here's a Google translation from Guancha News.Factorize , says: Show Comment March 23, 2020 at 11:45 pm GMT
Four special patients "exposed" a special military Games support force
Recently, as two foreign athletes of imported infectious diseases were discharged from Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, this brought a special medical security team to the surface of the current Military Games. They are the military games organized by Jinyintan Hospital to prevent and treat infectious diseases.
It is understood that during the military games, five foreign athletes were sent to Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital because of suffering from imported infectious diseases. The hospital immediately launched an emergency plan for infectious diseases, launched isolation treatment for five infectious disease patients, and provided high-quality medical care services, which not only made foreign athletes and officials feel professional and reliable medical services, but also effectively controlled the spread of infectious diseases. .
According to reports, in order to do a good job in medical services for various infectious diseases during the military games, the city's Jinyintan Hospital has stored 77 infectious disease treatment drugs, 29 infectious disease protective supplies, and 4 bioterrorism protective supplies; five experts were selected as Member of the expert team of the public health emergency team of the military games; sent 2 deputy chief physicians to the medical support center of the military games to participate in the front-line diagnosis and treatment of infectious diseases; formed the bioterrorism medical rescue emergency team of the military games and opened at the military games Coordinated with the Military Command Medical Command Center, organized 11 emergency drills for medical treatment and transfer of Ebola virus disease and 4 emergency drills for medical treatment of bioterrorism, which provided a strong guarantee for the smooth running of the event.
Zhang Hongxing, the party secretary and director of the Municipal Health and Health Committee, also made a special trip to the infectious ward of the hospital to condolence two of the patients, shake hands with them, ask about their illness, comfort them and raise their health, and send blessings. He fully affirmed Jinyintan Hospital's effective response to the infectious disease treatment of this international event, and highly praised the medical security team behind the scenes.This url shows the phylogeny of COVID19.Godfree Roberts , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 12:27 am GMT
There is no evidence for more than one place of origin of the virus.
All existing patients can be traced to coviral Eve's RNA with an inferred date of November 28. The phylogeny shown would suggest that other nations did not have emerging epidemics within their own borders pre-existing a single origin genesis, as this would imply that other branches of the genetic development of the virus would trace back before the first sequenced patient. No sequencing results exist to support such an hypothesis. In fact as seen in the phylogeny there are typically multiple generations of the virus with mutations before this went international.
Given the totality of the viral sequencing that has been performed (and this has been the most sequenced pandemic ever (using nanopores almost in real time)) there is not much room to propose alternative narratives.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov@occupatio Thanks for clarifying that.Godfree Roberts , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 12:48 am GMT
Our media's silence about America's bizarrely suspicious behavior -- refusing to identify Patient Zero, refusing to perform post-mortem tests, refusing to say where the first outbreaks were identified, discouraging testing until March, producing faulty test kits -- is effective.
Yet it is precisely that behavior that gives Chinese suspicions credibility.
Silence, in this case, truly is golden.@jjc The stories in Chinese media confirm military patients being treated in special infectious wards, and carry photos of them with the medical staff, but do not identify their infection as Covid-19. Four special patients "exposed" a special military Games support force : https://user.guancha.cn/main/content?id=248463Godfree Roberts , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 12:52 am GMT
If it was Covid-19 then it could now be identified retroactively. No-one has done that but the Chinese Ambassador is asking who was our Patient Zero. And we're not saying. Why?
The Games ran until October 27 so the team would have been home by November 1, presumably. All militaries are strong on epidemics, given their history in warfare. Were the returnees ultra-quarantined for fear of creating a scandal? Can we talk to them?@utu The Games ran until October 27 so the team should have been home by November 1.Ron Unz , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 1:37 am GMT
All militaries are strong on epidemics, given their history in warfare. Were the returnees ultra-quarantined because they had a highly infectious strain of Coronavirus? Can we talk to them?
The stories in Chinese media confirm military patients being treated in special infectious wards and carry photos of them with the medical staff, but do not identify their infection as Covid-19. Four special patients "exposed" a special military Games support force : https://user.guancha.cn/main/content?id=248463
If it was Covid-19 then it could now be identified retroactively. No-one has done that but the Chinese Ambassador is asking who was our Patient Zero. And we're not saying. Why?@utuutu , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 2:06 am GMT
I would go even further and claim that the hypothesis that the infection in China began on October 27, 2019 during the Military Games might be a stretch. It implies that it took 87 days to get to 571 on Jan 22 which is about 10 day doubling time. Fortunately for Godfree China is most likely lying and the true count case on Jan 22 was probably higher.
There's really no need to assume that China was lying. As we all know, it's *exceptionally* difficult to correctly estimate the number of infected individuals since Coronavirus has a long incubation period and something like 80% of the cases are anyway mild or asymptomatic. Obviously, there's no way the Chinese could have tested all 11M residents in Wuhan, let alone their entire country. Similarly, the reported number of identified cases in the US is now around 40K, but the true figure must be vastly higher.
Therefore, some people have reasonably argued that it's much better to rely upon the number of deaths. Taking into account the incubation period, speed of propagation, and the mortality rate, the estimate is that the number of infections = 800-1000 times the number of deaths (during periods when the virus is spreading without restriction). I think there had been 17 deaths by Jan. 23 in China, so there were probably 14,000-17,000 infections. Since it's quite plausible that a few extra very early deaths were misidentified, the infection total might even be considerably higher.
Those numbers are pretty consistent with a doubling time of 6 days or less, which seems perfectly reasonable given all the huge estimation error-bars.@Godfree Roberts Hilarious translation like from an anti-Chinese satire sketch. I am afraid your valiant fight on the behalf of China that exists only in your fantasy is not helping the real China. Anyway, there is no mention that the five foreign devils were Americans but you wrote this:Fingers Crossed , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 2:11 am GMT
"Five of the US troops developed a fever on Oct. 25 and were taken to an infectious-diseases hospital for treatment."
so you confabulated their nationality and confabulated their fever which is not mentioned either. Godfree Roberts, you are a liar.
Check again the article in Global Times I have linked:
A Wuhan hospital clarified the clinical diagnoses of five foreign athletes at the 7th CISM Military World Games held in Wuhan, Central China's Hubei Province in October 2019, saying that they contracted malaria and were not infected by the novel coronavirus.
Zhang Dingyu, chief physician with the Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, told Southern Weekly during a telephone interview on Sunday evening, stressing such cases had nothing to do with the novel coronavirus pneumonia, or COVID-19 .
Zhang's clarification came after an old media report resurfaces online, claiming that five athletes were sent to a hospital in Wuhan for medical care and quarantine measures after they were infected with an imported epidemic between October 18 to 27. Posts subsequently went viral on social media, prompting theories that they were the original carriers of the novel coronavirus.
You give very infantile vibes. Naivety, lack of sound judgment and retarded moral development. Sad.Before deciding which country to listen to, everybody should brush up on the US government's two-decade history of undermining the object and purpose of the Biological Weapons Convention.Priss Factor , says: Website Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 2:18 am GMT
https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/bwc@vot tak Some say the Deep State is using the Corona Crisis as excuse for the economic meltdown that was just waiting to happen. Even if true, I doubt if Wall Street goons engineered this crisis with some bio-weapon.utu , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 2:20 am GMT
So far, it seems like Bat Soup to me. Chinese need to stop eating crazy shit.
Also, they need to be more humane to animals. Otherwise, they aren't fully human, and Morrissey is right.@Ron Unz "There's really no need to assume that China was lying." -- Oh, no. Godforbid. China and lying in one sentence, that can't be.Commentator Mike , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 2:39 am GMT
"the estimate is that the number of infections = 800-1000 times the number of deaths " -- Nonsense. Mortality for Wuhan was about 4% not 0.1%.
You stretching numbers as if they were made of rubber. This is just another form of confabulation. Godfree Roberts you are a liar!Here's another skeptical look at this crisis:utu , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 2:52 am GMT
https://russia-insider.com/en/corona-very-mild-virus-no-more-deadly-many-others-we-dont-make-fuss-about/ri28444@Ron UnzRon Unz , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 2:55 am GMT
the estimate is that the number of infections = 800-1000 times the number of deaths
Are you sure you want to go there? CFR=0.1% 40 times lower than the official estimate for Wuhan. Three times lower than currently in Germany. With that low mortality perhaps we are worrying too much. Still a lot of deaths if 60% of American get infected but not in millions. Four times more than from flu in 2017-2018 when there were 45 mil symptomatic cases, 21 mil medical visits and 0.8 mil hospitalizations.
"Coronavirus has a long incubation period" -- Five days is long?
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/coronavirus-resource-center@utuRon Unz , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 3:06 am GMT
"There's really no need to assume that China was lying." -- Oh, no. Godforbid. China and lying in one sentence, that can't be.
That's unreasonable. Unless China tested all 11M people in Wuhan, how could they possibly know the exact number of infected individuals given the long latency period?
The current official total in California is about 2,100. But nobody believes that's correct, and the true figure is probably at least 10x larger. Is California "lying"?
"the estimate is that the number of infections = 800-1000 times the number of deaths " -- Nonsense. Mortality for Wuhan was about 4% not 0.1%.
No, I think the Wuhan mortality rate only spiked that high when the health care system was overwhelmed, and I doubt that had yet happened by Jan. 23 since they only began constructing that large temporary hospital on Feb. 3. On Jan 23 there were only a couple of hundred severe cases in a city of 11M. So I assume that the mortality rate at that point was the usual 1%.
Backing out the number of infections from the number of deaths requires assumptions of the mortality rate, the timelags of infection and death, and the propagation time. But I think a ratio of 800-1000x is a reasonable means of estimating the number of infections. Here's the (very crude) reasoning:
Assume 100 individuals infected on Day 1, resulting in 1 death 15 days later. Based upon a five-day doubling period, the number of infected will have grown to 800 by the time that death occurs. This is obviously a *very* crude estimation technique, since I don't know the mean time from infection-to-death. But given the latency period and lack of widespread testing, it's probably much more accurate than the official totals during the exponential expansion of the virus, whether in the US or China.
You stretching numbers as if they were made of rubber. This is just another form of confabulation. Godfree Roberts you are a liar!
Ha, ha. I'm not Godfree Roberts and I'm not a liar!@utuAnon  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 3:30 am GMT
Are you sure you want to go there? CFR=0.1% 40 times lower than the official estimate for Wuhan.
No, you're missing the key point. For example, I just read somewhere that the mean time from infection to death is about 3 weeks. If that's correct, then the deaths that occur *today* give us an estimate of the number of infections 3 weeks ago (based upon the assumed mortality rate). And once we know the number of infections three weeks ago, we can try to estimate the current number of infections.
In effect, current deaths give us a reasonably accurate time-lagged picture of infections.https://www.army.mil/article/228879/us_women_finish_8th_despite_crash_in_50_mile_cycling_road_raceRonnie , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 3:52 am GMT
WUHAN, China -- A hit from behind on the final lap may have dashed the U.S. Armed Forces' hopes for gold in women's cycling, but bruised ribs and a cracked helmet didn't stop Sgt. 1st Class Maatje Benassi from crossing the finish line.
Benassi led the pack for much of the third and fourth laps in the 50-mile, five-lap road race Sunday during the second day of cycling competition in the CISM Military World Games. She had dropped back to draft a while and was just beginning her final push when the crash happened.
"My plan was to move up on the left," Benassi said. Two more wide right turns were approaching before the finish "and so if you move on the left, you don't have to hit your brakes; you can carry all that momentum -- that speed -- going into the turn."
Matthew Benassi worked at Fort Detrick lab that was shut down. What is Maatje Benassi's relationship with Matthew Benassi?Much like Ebola, the early symptoms of COVID-19, including fever, myalgia, and fatigue, might be confused with malaria and lead to challenges in early clinical diagnosis. It is said that the five infected US troops in Wuhan in October were diagnosed and treated for Malaria at a local Wuhan hospital -- chloroquine -- but they actually had COVID. And they apparently recovered. This may also explain why Trump is pushing chloroquine treatment so aggressively.Mr McKenna , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 3:52 am GMT@Godfree RobertsKratoklastes , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 4:03 am GMT
Our media's silence about America's bizarrely suspicious behavior
What do you mean, "our" media's silence, Godflee?@Ron Unz To flesh out what I previously said about the 'starting stock' that will exist in an environment where nobody is testing anyone for a while, consider the following 'back of the envelope' example. (It's a decent-sized envelope).utu , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 4:05 am GMT
This is also a really nice little example to show how unrealistic the unconstrained epidemiological models are.
Start with some broad parameters. I've got them from 'official' sources (I'll write this up properly at some point -- maybe tomorrow -- and give a link with references and what-not).
Examine the numbers in the list below, and see if you think any of them are controversial.
• the average person has 5 contacts per day with uninfected people;
• there's a 20% chance of infection from contact with an infected person;
• the incubation period is 5 days;
• 70% of infected people have symptoms less than a cold (half of them totally symptomatic);
• the infectious period lasts for ten days;
• 21 days after infection, people are dead or recovered (assume 3.8% IFR).
Now we can step through day by day and see what stock of infected people we wind up with at various points in time. The day-on-day changes match the transition functions for an unconstrained SEIR model.[MORE]
Start at Day Zero : Patient Zero -- who is infected, contagious and asymptomatic -- gets off a plane.
[Iterate iterate iterate]
Day 45: 2.8 MILLION have been exposed; 1.9 million are infectious, only 1500 have recovered, and there have been only 55 deaths.
(NB: 'deaths' and 'recovered' are a function of the total infected population 21 days ago; "infectious" is equal to infectious yesterday plus 20% of people exposed 5 days ago).
That total infected number's unrealistically high because of the nature of the model: it is missing a shitload of obvious constraints.
For example: people might have 5-10 contacts a day, but it's not with new people . (On the flip ide, it's not like each uninfected can only get it from a specific infected individual -- but there will be innate spatial constraints on movements, too)
By the 60-day mark, unless you put constraints on the model, there are 298 million people who are infectious (and 445 million exposed).
This is obviously stupid in a world where the overwhelming majority of people test negative (98.7% negative with 121,000 tests done in Australia) and most countries don't contain 445 million people.
At 60 days it's also generating 9000 deaths a day in a single country , from a single imported patient , and has a cumulative death toll of 30,000.
These are all far too unrealistic, because the model has no built-in constraints.
Uninfected people would become progressively rarer after the 50-day mark (by which time 10 million would be infectious in an unconstrained model), and the death toll would be just over a thousand already.
But let's stick with it -- otherwise we have to do some tweaking, some combination of
• reduce the infectiousness;
• decrease the IFR (3.5%);
• lengthen the incubation period;
• reduce the number of contacts per infected person per day.
Now if Day Zero is at the very end of October 2019, then by mid- December there would be 1.8 million infectious wandering around -- a million of whom would have no or few symptoms.
How many ' confirmed cases ' would there be on the same date? ZERO. Testing hadn't started yet .
If Day Zero is instead late December 2019, under this scenario (which as I say, is based on parameters promulgated by the authorities) there would be almost 2 million infectious wandering around by February 15.
By Feb 15 the US had conducted 2148 tests and had 15 confirmed cases.
The difference: the CDC assumes that 'Day Zero' is the date of the first confirmed case (January 21) -- which is fucking stupid .
They are effectively claiming that between January 1 and January 21, no infected-asymptomatic person from Wuhan, Italy, Iran or elsewhere, entered the US and went about their normal lives.
I call bullshit on that.
If this thing was worth worrying about -- genuinely highly infectious; with a genuine IFR above 3% and transitional dynamics akin to those described by a SEIR model -- then by the time testing started in earnest (mid-March) it was already too late to 'fix' by any mechanism whatsoever.
The most likely explanation is that this thing is moderately infectious, but not very lethal: under that scenario there are plenty of people already out there carrying and spreading the thing, and tests are 'finding' those people, not new infections.
That's consistent with the C/T (confirmed cases / total tests) being relatively constant (in fact slightly declining )
So I've been let down by Mother Nature yet again: she has again failed to furnish me with my longed-for 14th-century style 'rinse-out' of the gene pool. What a BITCH .@Ron Unz "Ha, ha. I'm not Godfree Roberts and I'm not a liar!" -- I am really sorry. When writing it I thought I was responding to GR. I posted it and then I realized my mistake and erased the comment. Refreshed the page and it wasn't there. But apparently I was too late. Then I wrote my second comment.Anon  Disclaimer , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 4:48 am GMT
Assume 100 individuals infected on Day 1, resulting in 1 death 15 days later. Based upon a five-day doubling period, the number of infected will have grown to 800 by the time that death occurs.
Now I understand and agree providing that the true CFR is 1%. On Jan 22 there were 17 deaths which translates to 1700 infections (instead of 571 worldometers.info ) which using 5 day doubling period gets us to the patient zero 54 days earlier, i.e, late November which makes late October first infection feasible providing all crude assumptions: CFR could be less than 1%, number of deaths on Jan 22 could be larger than 17 because, you know them Chinese, they could be lying.Ron Unz , says: Show Comment March 24, 2020 at 4:54 am GMT
A few days ago, Mike Pompeo phoned Yang Jiechi, Chinese State Councillor for Foreign Affairs. Pompeo's counterpart is actually Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Yang is Wang's boss, so Pompeo wanted to talk about something urgent and important.
Pompeo wanted the Chinese not to publicize what they had found.
This story would be more credible if a recording of said phone call is made public. In fact, it would blow the whole thing up.
I have heard from a source in "deep state" that they had known about coronavirus in DC back in November, and that lots of people had already had it. They just took antibiotics. I don't know how credible that is since antibiotics appear not to be able to cure Covid-19, or at least not by itself. A French doctor has discovered that if used in conjunction with hydroxycloroquine then the cure rate is 100% in 6 days. Maybe it wasn't a true French discovery, he was tipped off.Well, one of the world's leading epidemiologists was interviewed by the NYT. And he says that according to his detailed models, the *best case* scenario involves over a million American dead.
This is clearly shaping up to be the greatest American disaster at least since the Civil War 150 years ago.
If it's indeed blowback from a biowarfare attack against China (and Iran), I'm not surprised that the Deep State Neocons responsible are so desperately trying to convince people it was all caused by "Chinese bat soup" and other propaganda-nonsense. And this obviously helps to explain the large numbers of trolls and shills now cluttering up the comment-threads of this website.
Mar 22, 2020 | www.moonofalabama.org
kiwiklown , Mar 22 2020 10:11 utc | 128@Jackrabbit | Mar 21 2020 22:32 utc | 50
"These officials "failed us" in the same way that our media "fails us": they serve the interests of the EMPIRE-FIRST Deep State."
Yuppp. Our error is to assume all 17 intelligence agencies; the presstitudes; and US "leadership" exist to serve the American people. And so, yes, they "fail" the people. But, from the point of view of the controllers of those agencies and of those "leaders", they hardly ever fail !!!
While the people argue over virulent minutae, they are once again helping themselves to the US Treasury.... Trillions of USDs.... LOL
kiwiklown , Mar 22 2020 10:36 utc | 132@Jackrabbit | Mar 21 2020 23:10 utc | 54kiwiklown , Mar 22 2020 11:25 utc | 137
"Caitlin Johnstone also sees the response being manipulated to focus hate on China...."
Yuppp, blaming China, hating on China achieves several objectives:
- it misdirects Americans from blaming Trump's "leadership";
- it excuses Trump's mismanagement ("...the Chinese LIED...")
- it absolves the CDC, 17 "intelligence" agencies, etc;
- it continues The Great China Pivot started by Great Pretender Obama;
- it uses current fear to mobilise Americans to hate China more;
- it prepares Americans for when war on China becomes feasible;
Just look at how US leadership has been hating on Russia for the last 100 years, waiting to whack them with a sneak attack if feasible.@Jackrabbit | Mar 22 2020 2:45 utc | 79
".... was then told to STOP TESTING...... A medical person would not try to suppress testing. That would be a "management decision" and its the Nation Security Council that was running the show (and which had classified all discussions related to virus preparations)...."
Thanks for reminding us of Dr Chu's story. What if the US leadership:
- Knew the coronavirus was already out in the wild in the US by Sep 2019;
- Decided to set up China to be the "origin" to be blamed;
- Realized that a "pandemic" can be the cover for kicking the table over to do the Great Financial Reset;