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[Dec 29, 2014] Russians See Costlier Food as No Crisis

Dec 29, 2014 | NYTimes.com

In the early days of 1992, prices here exploded by an average of 350 percent as post-Communist Russia crash-landed into a free market economy. Six years later, in August 1998, prices again gyrated wildly after the Russian government devalued the ruble and defaulted on its debts.

In comparison, this year's plunge in the value of the ruble seems positively tame, which may explain the relative stoicism among shoppers here as they shuffled along snow-covered paths, making the rounds of the shops and getting ready for the long holiday season.

That isn't to say that inflation - now above 10 percent - is not on everyone's mind. Several store managers said the same thing: Prices have been going up with each delivery. In a store in the nearby village of Akhtyrka, the sales clerk advised a couple of elderly shoppers to come back later, after she had updated the price list.

For consumers and retailers alike, Russia's latest economic crisis has come in stages. The first impact was felt last summer, when Russia retaliated against the West for Ukraine-related sanctions by imposing a ban on food imports from the United States, the European Union and several other trading partners. The second blow came after the value of the ruble took a deep plunge in mid-December, before bouncing back somewhat. A third is expected as rising interest rates choke off credit.

Here in Khotkovo, a town of 23,000 people 60 kilometers, or about 35 miles, northeast of Moscow, tracking the impact of the self-imposed sanctions is like proving a negative. A variety of goods - from basmati rice to imported hard cheeses - have simply vanished, leaving consumers with fewer and less desirable choices.

A store on the main square that specializes in food from Belarus, Russia's western neighbor and an ally of sorts, dodged the first bullet. Belarus never imposed sanctions, but now the drop in the value of the ruble is having an effect, said the store's manager, who declined to give his name.

He estimated that prices had over all increased 10 percent to 15 percent in the last month, and like others, he didn't dare venture a prediction for 2015.

After a decade of sustained economic growth, Russian consumers are more resilient than they were in 1992 or 1998, and as they shop for their traditional New Year's Eve feasts, many are shrugging off the higher prices.

Housewives standing in line at a meat counter said they were prepared to make do with less. Marina, who declined to give her last name, said that beef prices - now at 600 rubles a kilo (roughly $5.40 a pound) - had probably gone up at least 25 percent but that this wouldn't stop her from serving it for the traditional New Year's Eve feast. "We'll manage," she said.

Several shopkeepers said they were running through old stocks, which would explain why such anomalies as Finnish dumplings or Italian coffee can still be found on the shelves. Others explain that importers have figured out ways around the ban, bringing European goods through Belarus, where they are relabeled and brought across the border to Russia. Countries like Brazil have also stepped up exports to Russia, although typically at higher prices.

Ever since the food ban was introduced last summer, the Russian government has used the opportunity to encourage local producers to fill the gap. That has already had some effect: By October, domestic meat production was up 12 percent, according to government statistics.

[Dec 09, 2014] Links for 12-09-14

Economist's View

Fred C. Dobbs said... December 09, 2014 at 04:54 AM
Is Russia 2015 Venezuela 1983?
http://nyti.ms/1zkltWp
NYT - Paul Krugman

... 'in Putin's Russia. Obviously Russia's problems stem from other things besides the oil price, namely Ukraine and the fallout thereof. Still, it's pretty striking just how fast the financial situation seems to be unraveling. The bond vigilantes aren't invisible in Moscow - 10-year interest rates, which were below 8 percent early this year, hit 12.67 percent today.

The question one might ask is, why is Russia so vulnerable? It has, after all, run large current surpluses over time; overall, it's a creditor, not a debtor nation. But there are a lot of external debts all the same, reflecting private sector borrowing - and foreign currency reserves are dropping fast in part thanks to private capital flight.

What this reminds me of was one of the corners of the 1980s Latin American debt crisis, which preoccupied me during my year in Washington back in 1982-3. Venezuela then, like Russia now, was a petro-economy which had consistently run external surpluses. But it was nonetheless a vulnerable debtor, because all those external surpluses and more had in effect been recycled into overseas assets of the corrupt elite.
Of course, Venezuela didn't have nukes.'

pgl said in reply to Fred C. Dobbs... , December 09, 2014 at 06:00 AM

Did you see where Putin is promising to punish those who are making things so hard for his economy? I guess we should expect the Russians to annex Wall Street!

Fred C. Dobbs said in reply to pgl , December 09, 2014 at 07:53 AM

Russia's Putin accuses West of provoking
Ukraine crisis http://on.wsj.com/11YuhV3
WSJ - Dec 4

MOSCOW-Striking a defiant tone, President Vladimir Putin on Thursday accused the West of provoking a crisis in Ukraine and using sanctions to try to constrain Russia.

In his annual state of the union address, Mr. Putin defended Moscow's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea region in March, saying Russia would never give up the "sacred" peninsula. He accused the U.S. and Europe of cynically using the Ukraine crisis as an excuse to pursue a long-held strategy aimed at weakening Russia.

"The policy of containment was not invented yesterday. It has been carried out against our country for many years," he said. "Whenever someone thinks that Russia has become too strong or independent, these tools are quickly put into use."

Mr. Putin's one-hour speech in the Kremlin's ornate St. George's Hall underscored his hard-line response to Western sanctions that, along with low oil prices, have pushed Russia's economy toward recession.
As Mr. Putin lambasted the West, the ruble dropped 2% against the dollar.

The slump in oil prices continued to weigh on global markets Monday, hammering the Russian ruble in particular. Elsewhere, Japan's credit rating was downgraded by Moody's. WSJ's Katie Martin reports. (Photo: Getty)

Mr. Putin took a softer line on domestic policy, moving to allay fears of a tightening of the screws on opponents and businesses, and calling for spending cuts and economic liberalization to support growth.
At the same time, he blamed speculators for causing the ruble to plunge some 40% against the U.S. dollar this year, and offered an amnesty for repatriated capital. ...

likbez said in reply to Fred C. Dobbs...

Krugman in this column has shown his true neoliberal face. The column ignores a lot of important factors (compare with Fred C. Dobbs post @ 07:53 AM that contains a large quote from WSJ with some information about Russian view of the situation).

His analysis presuppose that low oil prices will last three years or more. I am not an expert to predict how long low oil prices will last. But, at the same time, I am not sure that at this point many oil producers will have a healthy economy, including the USA as large part of shale oil industry in the USA is dependent on prices above $80. KSA have currency reserves but their economy also need the price around $90.

I think there are several components of the current move of oil prices:

1. Natural economic cycle under capitalism which reached the stage of overproduction due to overinvestment. Plus, may be, partial return of some additional producers of oil on the market.

2. The US attempts to destabilize the Russian economy through sanctions and, if possible, institute a "regime change" in Russia.

3. Slower growth in China, although they still sell a record amount of cars per year.

If this is another Blitzkrieg against Russia, like many suspect, the revenge for partial failure of Drang nach Osten in Ukraine, the initiators should think twice in trying to corner Russia.
One interesting side effect of sanctions is the hard crash of EU exports to Russia. Which already started. So dominos might fall in a different order then Dr. Krugman presuppose.

[Dec 01, 2014] Putin renews aid pledge to firms hit by ′unwarranted sanctions′ Business

Oct 02, 2014 | DW.DE
Speaking to the VTB Russia Calling investment conference in Moscow on Thursday, Vladimir Putin said current difficult economic conditions would not stop the Russian economy from becoming stronger and more independent.

As Russia suffers from a series of punitive measures from the EU and the United States over the Ukraine crisis, the Russian President sought to reassure investors at home and abroad about government efforts to retain a healthy balance sheet and not restrict the free movement of capital.

The Russian economy has seen a massive outflow of capital this year, driving down the value of the ruble and weakening economic growth. This was mainly the result of Western sanctions, which include a ban on sensitive technologies and cutting off Russian firms from capital markets in the West.

Putin renewed a former pledge to sanctions-hit Russian firms for state support.

"The government is prepared to support sectors and companies that have been hit by unwarranted foreign sanctions. This would include helping them raise capital. First and foremost, I mean financial institutions," he said.

In a fist step, a sum of at least 30 billion rubles ($758 million, 599 million euros) in state aid would be transferred to the chartered capital of VEB bank this year, he added.

Putin also reiterated the importance of developing ties with the country's partners to the east, lauding companies that had already done deals with China.

"Our task is to bring about an industrial breakthrough, to create strong national companies in manufacturing sectors that are able to produce competitive products," he noted.

Putin's attempts to make Russia more independent from the West will also include a shift to national currencies in trade deals. This is intended to reduce Russia's reliance on the US dollar, notable in pivotal oil and gas exports.

"In the future we aim actively to use national currencies in energy resources trade to settle international trade accounts, with China and other countries," Putin said, describing the move as a mechanism to curb risks.

[Nov 30, 2014] Russia calls for end to sanctions as EU targets Ukraine separatists

Nov 30, 2014 | Reuters

Earlier this week, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said lower oil prices and Western financial sanctions will cost Russia around $130 billion-$140 billion a year, equivalent to around 7 percent of its economy.

Meshkov put the losses from sanctions for the EU at $50 billion next year, adding that trade turnover in some products between Russia and Europe had declined by double digit percentages.

A Reuters report this month showed that European exports to Russia fell almost 20 percent in August compared to July because of the sanctions.

[Nov 24 2014] Russia Sees $140 Billion Annual Loss From Oil, Sanctions By Olga Tanas

Nov 24 2014 | Bloomberg

Russia stands to lose as much as $140 billion a year as a result of lower oil prices and U.S. and European sanctions, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said, underlining the risks of a prolonged stalemate over Ukraine.

"We've seen a contraction of capital inflows into the country," Siluanov said today at conference in Moscow. "We're losing about $40 billion a year because of geopolitical sanctions, and we're losing about about $90 billion to $100 billion on the basis of a 30 percent decline in oil prices."

The drop in the cost of hydrocarbons is pushing the economy of the world's biggest energy exporter toward a recession while penalties imposed over Russia's role in the Ukrainian crisis discourage investors and curb domestic demand. President Vladimir Putin asked his economic team for a plan to survive a decade of sanctions, according to people with knowledge of discussions held in mid-October.

The Russian economy, which is already growing at the slowest in four years, will sink into a recession next year if the price of oil drops to $60 per barrel and sanctions are stiffened, Siluanov said in a Nov. 17 interview. Crude prices began sliding in June, and Brent, the grade traders look at for pricing Russia's main export blend Urals, dropped below $80 this month.

The Russian central bank forecasts the economy may have zero growth next year after a 1.3 percent gain in 2013. In 2007, when Brent averaged about $73 a barrel, gross domestic product grew 8.5 percent. Net capital outflow may reach $130 billion this year, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis, according to the Finance Ministry.

Oil, Ruble

"The price of oil fell 30 percent since the beginning of the year -- and with it the ruble," Siluanov said. "The ruble will follow oil prices."

Russia's currency has depreciated almost 27 percent this year against the dollar, the worst performance after Ukraine's hryvnia among global currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The ruble strengthened 1.7 percent to 44.9230 versus the greenback as of 5:33 p.m. in Moscow.

The global glut of oil, which together with gas accounts for about 50 percent of Russia's state revenue, has contributed to a slide in crude prices to a four-year low. Russia needs Brent to average about $100 this year to balance its budget, Deutsche Bank AG estimated last month.

Brent for January settlement was down 53 cents to $79.83 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange at 12:40 p.m. local time.

projob66

This huge nation manufactures and sells what that the rest of the world wants? Some natural resources, some weapon systems, some tremendous works of art and intellectual accomplishment, but little else..

So if you have the natural resources, and you have the intellectual giants of mathematics, and physics, and philosophy, and the arts... Why is it so stagnant ?? You have materials, and you have talent, and that government cannot make bread from it.. its just poisonous to its own people... And now, Putin wants to start over like Ivan Grozny.... pffffffff.... your best will continue to flee... your mediocre will continue to bumble along.... Once you truly set people free it will take... 50 -> 100 years to get them to change their attitudes... All of Eastern Europe has this issue.. Some worse than others... Ukraine is doing ok.. The amount of disorganization there is about right for a country that has set people free, kind of.. They are trying.... Its not pretty..

People who have not had choices, don't understand the personal repercussions to themselves of freedom... Its hard... Its more complicated.. You have responsibilities societal, and personal.. All of that takes time to inculcate and kind of breed into the population over generations... God Bless Eastern Europe.... Good luck to all of them.....

[Jul 09, 2014] Spying Case Left Obama in Dark, U.S. Officials Say

NYTimes.com

Over the past year, the German government has tried to use the Snowden revelations - chiefly the embarrassing disclosure about Ms. Merkel's cellphone - as leverage to negotiate a non-spying pact between the United States and Germany. The United States has such arrangements with Australia, Britain, Canada and New Zealand.

But the White House has resisted, in part because officials worry that it would prompt other countries to request similar deals. In early 2010, the director of national intelligence, Dennis C. Blair, explored a nonspying pact with French intelligence officials, partly because Mr. Blair believed such a deal would ease the burden on the F.B.I., which has the task of hunting French spies in the United States.

The French are reputed to be particularly aggressive in pursuing American industrial secrets. In contrast, current and former American officials said that German operatives are far less active in the United States, making the benefits of a nonspying deal with Berlin less obvious.

Likewise, some question the value of spying on Germany. Such operations threaten the close intelligence-sharing relationship that American and German spies have developed in recent years. Since the Sept. 11 attacks, the BND has aggressively pursued terror suspects in Germany and played a role in the crippling Stuxnet cyberattack on Iran's nuclear program.

"There's only so much that spying on the Germans is going to get you," said a former C.I.A. official once posted in Europe. "It's not like the Germans are planning to establish relations with Iran."

Last week's disclosure came at a delicate moment: Mr. Obama needs Ms. Merkel's support to impose additional sanctions against Russia for its role in the Ukraine crisis. Germany, with extensive energy ties to Russia, has many reasons to resist, though Ms. Merkel has signaled she is running out of patience with President Vladimir V. Putin.

The American authorities are also pursuing heavy financial penalties from German banks, including Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank, for dealing with Iran and other countries that are blacklisted by the United States. The German government owns 17 percent of Commerzbank, raising the prospect of further tensions.

The prospect of new strains between the United States and Germany drew an expression of concern from the secretary general of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who met with Mr. Obama at the White House on Tuesday.

"I encourage them to sort this out as quickly as possible," Mr. Rasmussen said in an interview after his meeting, adding, "All NATO allies profit from an intensive exchange of information and intelligence, so that's also part of the whole equation."

For Mr. Obama and Ms. Merkel, the N.S.A. disclosures poisoned what had been one of the president's closest relationships with a foreign leader. At a Group of 8 meeting in Camp David in 2012, Mr. Obama invited Ms. Merkel to linger after the other leaders left. At a state dinner a year earlier, she was serenaded by James Taylor singing, "You've Got a Friend."

[Jul 09, 2014] Spying Case Left Obama in Dark, U.S. Officials Say

NYTimes.com

Over the past year, the German government has tried to use the Snowden revelations - chiefly the embarrassing disclosure about Ms. Merkel's cellphone - as leverage to negotiate a non-spying pact between the United States and Germany. The United States has such arrangements with Australia, Britain, Canada and New Zealand.

But the White House has resisted, in part because officials worry that it would prompt other countries to request similar deals. In early 2010, the director of national intelligence, Dennis C. Blair, explored a nonspying pact with French intelligence officials, partly because Mr. Blair believed such a deal would ease the burden on the F.B.I., which has the task of hunting French spies in the United States.

The French are reputed to be particularly aggressive in pursuing American industrial secrets. In contrast, current and former American officials said that German operatives are far less active in the United States, making the benefits of a nonspying deal with Berlin less obvious.

Likewise, some question the value of spying on Germany. Such operations threaten the close intelligence-sharing relationship that American and German spies have developed in recent years. Since the Sept. 11 attacks, the BND has aggressively pursued terror suspects in Germany and played a role in the crippling Stuxnet cyberattack on Iran's nuclear program.

"There's only so much that spying on the Germans is going to get you," said a former C.I.A. official once posted in Europe. "It's not like the Germans are planning to establish relations with Iran."

Last week's disclosure came at a delicate moment: Mr. Obama needs Ms. Merkel's support to impose additional sanctions against Russia for its role in the Ukraine crisis. Germany, with extensive energy ties to Russia, has many reasons to resist, though Ms. Merkel has signaled she is running out of patience with President Vladimir V. Putin.

The American authorities are also pursuing heavy financial penalties from German banks, including Commerzbank and Deutsche Bank, for dealing with Iran and other countries that are blacklisted by the United States. The German government owns 17 percent of Commerzbank, raising the prospect of further tensions.

The prospect of new strains between the United States and Germany drew an expression of concern from the secretary general of NATO, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who met with Mr. Obama at the White House on Tuesday.

"I encourage them to sort this out as quickly as possible," Mr. Rasmussen said in an interview after his meeting, adding, "All NATO allies profit from an intensive exchange of information and intelligence, so that's also part of the whole equation."

For Mr. Obama and Ms. Merkel, the N.S.A. disclosures poisoned what had been one of the president's closest relationships with a foreign leader. At a Group of 8 meeting in Camp David in 2012, Mr. Obama invited Ms. Merkel to linger after the other leaders left. At a state dinner a year earlier, she was serenaded by James Taylor singing, "You've Got a Friend."

[Jul 05, 2014] US sanctions are new type of offensive weapon – Russia's Deputy FM - RT Russian politics

Russia's leading diplomat in charge of relations with the US has called Washington's policy of sanctions "a new offensive strategic weapon", and warned that Russia was preparing a response, albeit not a mirror one.

"Sanctions, both declared and undeclared, are being used against a wider circle of countries and on a wider scale. I have an impression that the Washington power circles had come to the conclusion that it is sometimes simpler and cheaper to impose sanctions on some nation than use a conventional military force against it," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said in an interview with the influential business daily Kommersant.

"We are sticking to the decision not to let ourselves get dragged into a new arms race, and we are not going to make any mirror replies to such steps. Still, we have to look for an antidote. There must be a defensive weapon for every offensive weapon. We are working on it now," the Russian diplomat added.

Ryabkov told the newspaper that presently the United States had wrapped up all tried and effective formats of cooperation and dialogue with Russia – like the bilateral presidential commission or the dialogue on economic issues. He said that such steps were quite unexpected because they came from a country that had once declared the priority of a free market and only allows light touch regulation.

Now, the United States is turning the market into a tool of its foreign policy and using banned schemes that have nothing in common with economic effectiveness. All of this is driven by the geopolitical task of containment or even a throwback for the nations the United States is not happy with, the deputy minister stated. "These are methods of the past, the very old past. If they are using these methods their foreign policy arsenal must be not very rich," he added.

Speaking of the possible reasons of such a situation, the Russian diplomat said that it was mainly Washington's inability to accept the reality. "The USA holds that they won the Cold War and Russia – as a successor of the Soviet Union – had lost. Then they make a conclusion that Moscow must succumb and behave like a junior partner in international relations and in common projects with the USA," Ryabkov said.

"In essence, they reject the very possibility of us having any national interests. They reject the possibility of a model of values that is different from the one used by the USA and other Western countries," the Russian official said.

The new sanction-related row between Russia and the United States lingers from mid-March this year. The US (and later the EU and some US allies, like Canada or Australia have imposed sanctions against about 40 Russian citizens and several companies they allege are responsible for the current crisis in Ukraine.

The Russian parliament discussed the possibility of counter sanctions but has not yet taken any steps in this direction. On the other hand, when international card operators Visa and MasterCard refused to process the operations of some Russian banks under the pretense of sanctions, Russia changed its laws and demanded all major credit and debit card operators make a deposit with the Central Bank allowing uninterrupted operations in case of emergencies.

Visa and MasterCard threatened to quit the Russian market over the cost but eventually chose to stay and observe the new rules.

[Jul 05, 2014] US sanctions are new type of offensive weapon – Russia's Deputy FM - RT Russian politics

Russia's leading diplomat in charge of relations with the US has called Washington's policy of sanctions "a new offensive strategic weapon", and warned that Russia was preparing a response, albeit not a mirror one.

"Sanctions, both declared and undeclared, are being used against a wider circle of countries and on a wider scale. I have an impression that the Washington power circles had come to the conclusion that it is sometimes simpler and cheaper to impose sanctions on some nation than use a conventional military force against it," Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said in an interview with the influential business daily Kommersant.

"We are sticking to the decision not to let ourselves get dragged into a new arms race, and we are not going to make any mirror replies to such steps. Still, we have to look for an antidote. There must be a defensive weapon for every offensive weapon. We are working on it now," the Russian diplomat added.

Ryabkov told the newspaper that presently the United States had wrapped up all tried and effective formats of cooperation and dialogue with Russia – like the bilateral presidential commission or the dialogue on economic issues. He said that such steps were quite unexpected because they came from a country that had once declared the priority of a free market and only allows light touch regulation.

Now, the United States is turning the market into a tool of its foreign policy and using banned schemes that have nothing in common with economic effectiveness. All of this is driven by the geopolitical task of containment or even a throwback for the nations the United States is not happy with, the deputy minister stated. "These are methods of the past, the very old past. If they are using these methods their foreign policy arsenal must be not very rich," he added.

Speaking of the possible reasons of such a situation, the Russian diplomat said that it was mainly Washington's inability to accept the reality. "The USA holds that they won the Cold War and Russia – as a successor of the Soviet Union – had lost. Then they make a conclusion that Moscow must succumb and behave like a junior partner in international relations and in common projects with the USA," Ryabkov said.

"In essence, they reject the very possibility of us having any national interests. They reject the possibility of a model of values that is different from the one used by the USA and other Western countries," the Russian official said.

The new sanction-related row between Russia and the United States lingers from mid-March this year. The US (and later the EU and some US allies, like Canada or Australia have imposed sanctions against about 40 Russian citizens and several companies they allege are responsible for the current crisis in Ukraine.

The Russian parliament discussed the possibility of counter sanctions but has not yet taken any steps in this direction. On the other hand, when international card operators Visa and MasterCard refused to process the operations of some Russian banks under the pretense of sanctions, Russia changed its laws and demanded all major credit and debit card operators make a deposit with the Central Bank allowing uninterrupted operations in case of emergencies.

Visa and MasterCard threatened to quit the Russian market over the cost but eventually chose to stay and observe the new rules.

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